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000
FXUS63 KMKX 280803
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
303 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND.
SOUTHERN WI WILL BE IN THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO PRESSURE
SYSTEMS RESULTING IN CONTINUED BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN DIMINISHING. THE AIR MASS WILL BE DRY SO
LOOK FOR A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE...THOUGH THERE COULD BE A
PERIOD OF MORE CLOUDS FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE CLEARING
OUT AGAIN.

THE NAM IS GENERATING SOME LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA...BUT IT IS THE ONLY ONE DOING THIS AND
THE MOISTURE LOOKS OVERDONE. WE SHOULD SEE VERY LOW DEW POINTS
TODAY...SO ANY SHOWERS WOULD LIKELY BE ON THE ORDER OF SPRINKLES
OR VIRGA. WILL IGNORE IT FOR NOW. TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

.SHORT TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

SHORT TERM MODELS ARE SHOWING A 500 MB LOW LINGERING OVER THE
JAMES BAY CANADA REGION DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. SEVERAL WEAK TO MODEST 500 MB VORTICITY
MAXIMA PASS THROUGH THE AREA DURING THIS TIME. LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ORIENTED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SEEN ON MODELS...AIDED BY LAKE BREEZE
CONVERGENCE ON WEDNESDAY.

AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING MEAN LAYER CAPES OF A FEW HUNDRED
J/KG ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS TUESDAY...AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THUS...CONTINUED CHANCE POPS IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS EACH
DAY...WITH LOWER END POPS IN THE MORNINGS AND EVENINGS.

PLEASANT TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S ARE EXPECTED
EACH DAY...TURNING COOLER NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH.

GFS/ECMWF GENERALLY SHOWING 500 MB LOW WEAKENING AND SHIFTING
NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC CANADA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. 500 MB
TROUGH SLOWLY SHIFTS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW QPF ACROSS THE AREA
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AS
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HEATING.

CONTINUED POPS FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH THUNDER
POSSIBILITIES DURING EACH AFTERNOON PERIOD. TEMPERATURES STILL
LOOK QUITE PLEASANT...WITH MAINLY UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 EACH DAY.
ONSHORE WINDS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY SHOULD KEEP LAKESHORE AREAS
COOLER.

TROUGH SLIDES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...WHICH MAY BRING A PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER. TEMPERATURES
STILL LOOK NICE.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY OUT
OF THE NORTH AGAIN AFTER SUNRISE...ESPECIALLY EAST OF KMSN...BUT
WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...

NO CHANGES TO THE CURRENT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. NORTH WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BLOW THIS MORNING...DIMINISHING DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE NORTH OF MILWAUKEE BY MID
AFTERNOON AND BY EARLY EVENING SOUTH OF MILWAUKEE. IT/S POSSIBLE
TRENDS WILL ALLOW THINGS TO BE CANCELLED A FEW HOURS EARLIER.

&&

.BEACHES...

BREEZY NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING LARGE WAVES TO THE
BEACHES FROM SHEBOYGAN COUNTY SOUTH THROUGH KENOSHA COUNTY. WAVES
OF 3 TO 6 FEET ARE EXPECTED...BUT WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH BY MID
AFTERNOON. A BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR WIZ052-060-066-
     071-072.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ645-646.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ643-
     644.

&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DAVIS
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WOOD




000
FXUS63 KMKX 280803
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
303 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND.
SOUTHERN WI WILL BE IN THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO PRESSURE
SYSTEMS RESULTING IN CONTINUED BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN DIMINISHING. THE AIR MASS WILL BE DRY SO
LOOK FOR A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE...THOUGH THERE COULD BE A
PERIOD OF MORE CLOUDS FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE CLEARING
OUT AGAIN.

THE NAM IS GENERATING SOME LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA...BUT IT IS THE ONLY ONE DOING THIS AND
THE MOISTURE LOOKS OVERDONE. WE SHOULD SEE VERY LOW DEW POINTS
TODAY...SO ANY SHOWERS WOULD LIKELY BE ON THE ORDER OF SPRINKLES
OR VIRGA. WILL IGNORE IT FOR NOW. TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

.SHORT TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

SHORT TERM MODELS ARE SHOWING A 500 MB LOW LINGERING OVER THE
JAMES BAY CANADA REGION DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. SEVERAL WEAK TO MODEST 500 MB VORTICITY
MAXIMA PASS THROUGH THE AREA DURING THIS TIME. LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ORIENTED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SEEN ON MODELS...AIDED BY LAKE BREEZE
CONVERGENCE ON WEDNESDAY.

AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING MEAN LAYER CAPES OF A FEW HUNDRED
J/KG ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS TUESDAY...AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THUS...CONTINUED CHANCE POPS IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS EACH
DAY...WITH LOWER END POPS IN THE MORNINGS AND EVENINGS.

PLEASANT TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S ARE EXPECTED
EACH DAY...TURNING COOLER NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH.

GFS/ECMWF GENERALLY SHOWING 500 MB LOW WEAKENING AND SHIFTING
NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC CANADA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. 500 MB
TROUGH SLOWLY SHIFTS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW QPF ACROSS THE AREA
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AS
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HEATING.

CONTINUED POPS FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH THUNDER
POSSIBILITIES DURING EACH AFTERNOON PERIOD. TEMPERATURES STILL
LOOK QUITE PLEASANT...WITH MAINLY UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 EACH DAY.
ONSHORE WINDS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY SHOULD KEEP LAKESHORE AREAS
COOLER.

TROUGH SLIDES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...WHICH MAY BRING A PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER. TEMPERATURES
STILL LOOK NICE.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY OUT
OF THE NORTH AGAIN AFTER SUNRISE...ESPECIALLY EAST OF KMSN...BUT
WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...

NO CHANGES TO THE CURRENT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. NORTH WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BLOW THIS MORNING...DIMINISHING DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE NORTH OF MILWAUKEE BY MID
AFTERNOON AND BY EARLY EVENING SOUTH OF MILWAUKEE. IT/S POSSIBLE
TRENDS WILL ALLOW THINGS TO BE CANCELLED A FEW HOURS EARLIER.

&&

.BEACHES...

BREEZY NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING LARGE WAVES TO THE
BEACHES FROM SHEBOYGAN COUNTY SOUTH THROUGH KENOSHA COUNTY. WAVES
OF 3 TO 6 FEET ARE EXPECTED...BUT WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH BY MID
AFTERNOON. A BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR WIZ052-060-066-
     071-072.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ645-646.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ643-
     644.

&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DAVIS
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WOOD





000
FXUS63 KMKX 280242
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
942 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...-SHRA CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS SECONDARY FRONT/WIND SHIFT
SLIDES SOUTH OF AREA. OVERNIGHT TEMPS APPEAR IN GOOD SHAPE. WL
KEEP P/CLOUDY WORDING THROUGH THE LATE EVENING...HOWEVER DRIER AIR
OVERWHELMING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND MAY RESULT IN M/CLEAR SKIES
FOR THE LATE NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...MAY STILL BE A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AT ERN
TAF SITES AS COOLER AIR SURGES SWD. HOWEVER DRIER AIR IN THE LOW
LEVELS ALSO SURGING SWD PREVENTING SIGNIFICANT LOW CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT. WL CONTINUE TO MONITOR BUT LEANING TOWARD MORE
OPTIMISTIC CIGS AS 1000-850MB WINDS REMAIN MORE NORTHERLY
OVERNIGHT AS COOL AIR SETTLES IN.

&&

.MARINE...GUSTY NORTH WINDS BEHIND A DEPARTING CDFNT ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE INTO MONDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING. THESE WINDS WILL BUILD
WAVES TO 3 TO 7 FEET. HENCE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN
IN EFFECT.


&&

.BEACHES...WINDS HAVE NOW VEERED MORE NORTHERLY AND ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN NORTH INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS OF 10 TO 20
KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE HIGH
WAVES AND A HIGHER LIKLIHOOD OF DANGEROUS CURRENTS ALONG LAKE
MICHIGAN BEACHES. HENCE THE BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT FOR A HIGH SWIM
RISK WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL WIND DOWN QUICKLY THIS EVENING AS DAYTIME
HEATING IS LOST. CLOUDS WILL THEN DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING AND
INTO TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR PUSHES IN FROM THE NORTH.

EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES INTO THE
REGION...WITH MAYBE SCATTERED AFTERNOON CUMULUS. HIGHS WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...MAKING FOR A VERY PLEASANT DAY.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

THE MID/UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES ROTATE AROUND THE
MAIN UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF JAMES BAY CANADA.
500 MB TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND -15 AND -16 TUESDAY BUT BEGIN TO
SLOWLY MODERATE ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER INSTABILITY REMAINS AS LOW
LEVELS ALSO BEGIN TO WARM A LITTLE. 700 MB UPWARD MOTION EXISTS
BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE WEAK SHORTWAVES
COINCIDE WITH DIURNAL HEATING. 850-700 MB RH IS RATHER HIGH...
ESPECIALLY AT 850 MB. ZERO TO 1 KM MIXED LAYER CAPE IS AROUND 150
TO 200 JOULES/KG AND EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS NEAR 20 THSD FT.
THEREFORE SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS...SHOULD OCCUR BOTH TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS AND UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MORNING LOWS WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH CLOUDS
DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT.

LONG TERM...

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

CONTINUED VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE GFS/ECMWF AND DGEX. THE
EASTERN U.S. TROUGH BECOMES MORE BROAD AND BEGINS TO RETROGRADE
A LITTLE TOWARD THE WEST. THIS KEEPS MORE DIURNAL PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AND CONTINUES THE RATHER COOL SUMMER TEMPERATURES.

MAINLY THE GFS BRINGS A WEAK SHORTWAVE INTO WISCONSIN FROM THE
NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH THE GFS GENERATING A LITTLE
PRECIPITATION INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING...ALONG WITH
THE AFTERNOON DIURNAL INCREASE THAT IS ON BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF.

VERY LITTLE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE U.S. BY
THIS TIME. MESO WIND PATTERNS ASSOCIATED WITH THE GREAT LAKES
SHOULD DOMINATE.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ARE STILL VERY SIMILAR. THERE IS STILL A
MID/UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES TO MISSISSIPPI.

THE BROAD SURFACE HIGH REMAINS NEAR THE GREAT LAKES. BOTH THE
ECMWF AND GFS REDUCE THE AMOUNT OF LIGHT DIURNAL PRECIPITATION
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...WITH THE ECMWF MAINLY DRY
BY SUNDAY.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL WIND DOWN QUICKLY THIS EVENING AS DAYTIME
HEATING IS LOST.

WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS AS MAIN COLD POOL ALOFT
PUSHES THROUGH TONIGHT...THOUGH MODEL SOUNDINGS AND MOS STILL
SUGGEST VFR CIGS.

IT LOOKS PRETTY QUIET THEN MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
AREA.

MARINE...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.
WINDS WILL TURN NORTHERLY BY EVENING...REMAINING GUST INTO MONDAY
MORNING. WINDS WILL WIND DOWN MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH WAVES
DIMINISHING BY EVENING.

BEACHES...

INCREASING NORTH WINDS WILL BRING BUILDING WAVES TO THE BEACHES
FROM SHEBOYGAN SOUTH THROUGH KENOSHA COUNTY. WAVES WILL REACH 3 TO
4 FEET ALONG THE SHORELINE BY EARLY THIS EVENING...BUILDING TO 4
TO 7 FEET TONIGHT...THEN DIMINISHING SLOWLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EARLY EVENING ON MONDAY. A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IS IN
EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR WIZ052-060-
     066-071-072.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR LMZ645-646.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT MONDAY FOR LMZ643-644.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MBK





000
FXUS63 KMKX 272100
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
400 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...

.TONIGHT AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL WIND DOWN QUICKLY THIS EVENING AS DAYTIME
HEATING IS LOST. CLOUDS WILL THEN DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING AND
INTO TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR PUSHES IN FROM THE NORTH.

EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES INTO THE
REGION...WITH MAYBE SCATTERED AFTERNOON CUMULUS. HIGHS WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...MAKING FOR A VERY PLEASANT DAY.


.TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

THE MID/UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES ROTATE AROUND THE
MAIN UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF JAMES BAY CANADA.
500 MB TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND -15 AND -16 TUESDAY BUT BEGIN TO
SLOWLY MODERATE ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER INSTABILITY REMAINS AS LOW
LEVELS ALSO BEGIN TO WARM A LITTLE. 700 MB UPWARD MOTION EXISTS
BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE WEAK SHORTWAVES
COINCIDE WITH DIURNAL HEATING. 850-700 MB RH IS RATHER HIGH...
ESPECIALLY AT 850 MB. ZERO TO 1 KM MIXED LAYER CAPE IS AROUND 150
TO 200 JOULES/KG AND EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS NEAR 20 THSD FT.
THEREFORE SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS...SHOULD OCCUR BOTH TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS AND UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MORNING LOWS WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH CLOUDS
DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...

.THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

CONTINUED VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE GFS/ECMWF AND DGEX. THE
EASTERN U.S. TROUGH BECOMES MORE BROAD AND BEGINS TO RETROGRADE
A LITTLE TOWARD THE WEST. THIS KEEPS MORE DIURNAL PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AND CONTINUES THE RATHER COOL SUMMER TEMPERATURES.

MAINLY THE GFS BRINGS A WEAK SHORTWAVE INTO WISCONSIN FROM THE
NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH THE GFS GENERATING A LITTLE
PRECIPITATION INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING...ALONG WITH
THE AFTERNOON DIURNAL INCREASE THAT IS ON BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF.

VERY LITTLE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE U.S. BY
THIS TIME. MESO WIND PATTERNS ASSOCIATED WITH THE GREAT LAKES
SHOULD DOMINATE.

.SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ARE STILL VERY SIMILAR. THERE IS STILL A
MID/UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES TO MISSISSIPPI.

THE BROAD SURFACE HIGH REMAINS NEAR THE GREAT LAKES. BOTH THE
ECMWF AND GFS REDUCE THE AMOUNT OF LIGHT DIURNAL PRECIPITATION
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...WITH THE ECMWF MAINLY DRY
BY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL WIND DOWN QUICKLY THIS EVENING AS DAYTIME
HEATING IS LOST.

WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS AS MAIN COLD POOL ALOFT
PUSHES THROUGH TONIGHT...THOUGH MODEL SOUNDINGS AND MOS STILL
SUGGEST VFR CIGS.

IT LOOKS PRETTY QUIET THEN MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
AREA.

&&

.MARINE...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.
WINDS WILL TURN NORTHERLY BY EVENING...REMAINING GUST INTO MONDAY
MORNING. WINDS WILL WIND DOWN MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH WAVES
DIMINISHING BY EVENING.

&&

.BEACHES...

INCREASING NORTH WINDS WILL BRING BUILDING WAVES TO THE BEACHES
FROM SHEBOYGAN SOUTH THROUGH KENOSHA COUNTY. WAVES WILL REACH 3 TO
4 FEET ALONG THE SHORELINE BY EARLY THIS EVENING...BUILDING TO 4
TO 7 FEET TONIGHT...THEN DIMINISHING SLOWLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EARLY EVENING ON MONDAY. A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IS IN
EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH
     MONDAY EVENING FOR WIZ052-060-066-071-072.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR LMZ645-646.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT MONDAY FOR LMZ643-644.

&&

$$

TONIGHT/MONDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...DDV
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...HENTZ




000
FXUS63 KMKX 272100
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
400 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...

.TONIGHT AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL WIND DOWN QUICKLY THIS EVENING AS DAYTIME
HEATING IS LOST. CLOUDS WILL THEN DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING AND
INTO TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR PUSHES IN FROM THE NORTH.

EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES INTO THE
REGION...WITH MAYBE SCATTERED AFTERNOON CUMULUS. HIGHS WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...MAKING FOR A VERY PLEASANT DAY.


.TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

THE MID/UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES ROTATE AROUND THE
MAIN UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF JAMES BAY CANADA.
500 MB TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND -15 AND -16 TUESDAY BUT BEGIN TO
SLOWLY MODERATE ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER INSTABILITY REMAINS AS LOW
LEVELS ALSO BEGIN TO WARM A LITTLE. 700 MB UPWARD MOTION EXISTS
BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE WEAK SHORTWAVES
COINCIDE WITH DIURNAL HEATING. 850-700 MB RH IS RATHER HIGH...
ESPECIALLY AT 850 MB. ZERO TO 1 KM MIXED LAYER CAPE IS AROUND 150
TO 200 JOULES/KG AND EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS NEAR 20 THSD FT.
THEREFORE SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS...SHOULD OCCUR BOTH TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS AND UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MORNING LOWS WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH CLOUDS
DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...

.THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

CONTINUED VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE GFS/ECMWF AND DGEX. THE
EASTERN U.S. TROUGH BECOMES MORE BROAD AND BEGINS TO RETROGRADE
A LITTLE TOWARD THE WEST. THIS KEEPS MORE DIURNAL PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AND CONTINUES THE RATHER COOL SUMMER TEMPERATURES.

MAINLY THE GFS BRINGS A WEAK SHORTWAVE INTO WISCONSIN FROM THE
NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH THE GFS GENERATING A LITTLE
PRECIPITATION INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING...ALONG WITH
THE AFTERNOON DIURNAL INCREASE THAT IS ON BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF.

VERY LITTLE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE U.S. BY
THIS TIME. MESO WIND PATTERNS ASSOCIATED WITH THE GREAT LAKES
SHOULD DOMINATE.

.SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ARE STILL VERY SIMILAR. THERE IS STILL A
MID/UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES TO MISSISSIPPI.

THE BROAD SURFACE HIGH REMAINS NEAR THE GREAT LAKES. BOTH THE
ECMWF AND GFS REDUCE THE AMOUNT OF LIGHT DIURNAL PRECIPITATION
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...WITH THE ECMWF MAINLY DRY
BY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL WIND DOWN QUICKLY THIS EVENING AS DAYTIME
HEATING IS LOST.

WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS AS MAIN COLD POOL ALOFT
PUSHES THROUGH TONIGHT...THOUGH MODEL SOUNDINGS AND MOS STILL
SUGGEST VFR CIGS.

IT LOOKS PRETTY QUIET THEN MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
AREA.

&&

.MARINE...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.
WINDS WILL TURN NORTHERLY BY EVENING...REMAINING GUST INTO MONDAY
MORNING. WINDS WILL WIND DOWN MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH WAVES
DIMINISHING BY EVENING.

&&

.BEACHES...

INCREASING NORTH WINDS WILL BRING BUILDING WAVES TO THE BEACHES
FROM SHEBOYGAN SOUTH THROUGH KENOSHA COUNTY. WAVES WILL REACH 3 TO
4 FEET ALONG THE SHORELINE BY EARLY THIS EVENING...BUILDING TO 4
TO 7 FEET TONIGHT...THEN DIMINISHING SLOWLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EARLY EVENING ON MONDAY. A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IS IN
EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH
     MONDAY EVENING FOR WIZ052-060-066-071-072.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR LMZ645-646.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT MONDAY FOR LMZ643-644.

&&

$$

TONIGHT/MONDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...DDV
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...HENTZ





000
FXUS63 KMKX 271532 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1032 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE QUICKLY DEVELOPING THIS MORNING
UPSTREAM AS EXPECTED. WILL SEE THIS ACTIVITY PUSH SOUTH INTO THE
FORECAST AREA LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH AXIS
ROTATES THROUGH. STILL EXPECT DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE LATE
THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH DECREASING TEMPS AFTER
THAT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS THE CLOUDS/SHOWERS AND COLDER
AIR ALOFT MOVE IN.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE QUICKLY DEVELOPING THIS MORNING
UPSTREAM AS EXPECTED. WILL SEE THIS ACTIVITY PUSH SOUTH INTO THE
FORECAST AREA LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH AXIS
ROTATES THROUGH. SHOWERS WILL WIND DOWN EARLY THIS EVENING.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY EXCEPT FOR MVFR VSBYS
POSSIBLE WITHIN MODERATE RAINFALL. WILL ALSO MONITOR POSSIBLE
MVFR CIGS AS MAIN COLD POOL ALOFT PUSHES THROUGH TONIGHT...THOUGH
MODEL SOUNDINGS AND MOS SUGGEST VFR CIGS.

IT LOOKS PRETTY QUIET THEN MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
AREA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING...REACHING MADISON BY 14Z AND MILWAUKEE BETWEEN 16-17Z. WE
COULD SEE A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT
OVER THE CWA BEFORE IT EXITS TO THE EAST. HEIGHTS ARE FALLING AS
AN IMPRESSIVELY STRONG UPPER TROF DROPS SOUTH INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. UP UNTIL NOW...THE COLUMN HAS BEEN FAIRLY DRY IN THE
MID LEVELS OVER SOUTHERN WI WITH DECENT CAPPING IN THE LOW
LEVELS...LIMITING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. BUT THIS WILL BE
MOISTENING UP QUICKLY JUST AS TEMPS ALOFT ARE COOLING.

THE HRRR SHOWS CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT JUST AS IT/S
GETTING TO MADISON. THIS ISN/T A SURE THING...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE A
REASONABLE AND POSSIBLE SCENARIO. BEHIND THE FRONT...THE COLD CORE
UPPER SYSTEM DROPS IN AND PRECIP SHOULD EXPAND UNDER THIS LOW BY
EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHEAST CWA. THIS
WILL BE MAINLY SHOWERS...BUT WE COULD CRACK SOME THUNDER...SO WILL
KEEP THAT MENTION.

DRIER WEATHER WORKS IN QUICKLY TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT THAT CLEARS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BY ABOUT 03Z SUN. THIS
WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE 50S.

SHORT TERM...MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS MEDIUM.

SHORT TERM MODELS SHOWING 500 MB TROUGH LINGERING OVER
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA INTO THE EASTERN USA DURING THIS PERIOD. THE
UPPER MIDWEST SHOULD REMAIN IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AS A RESULT.
WEAK 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMA PASS THROUGH THE AREA...MAINLY
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE SHOWING LIGHT QPF ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA DURING THIS TIME.

AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW ENOUGH SHALLOW MEAN LAYER CAPE FOR
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
CONTINUED POPS FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT DRY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS MONDAY...WITH 925 MB
TEMPERATURES SUPPORTING LOWER 70S EAST TO MID 70S WEST. COOL NIGHT
MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S ARE EXPECTED...WITH
MID TO UPPER 70S ON TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

ECMWF/GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW 500 MB TROUGH LINGERING TO THE EAST OF
THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER TROUGH ROTATING
INTO THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. VARIOUS VORTICITY MAXIMA
SHOULD CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE REGION AT TIMES.

GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME WEAK INSTABILITY EACH AFTERNOON
AND EVENING DURING THIS PERIOD...WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND A
FEW STORMS. KEPT POPS GOING FOR MOST OF THIS PERIOD...GIVEN SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXACT TIMING OF PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE PLEASANT DURING THIS TIME...WITH ONSHORE WINDS AT TIMES
NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN KEEPING THINGS COOLER THERE.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

LOOK FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WE
START OUT WITH SOME AREAS OF FOG AND POSSIBLE IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS...BUT THIS WILL ONLY BE A THREAT THROUGH ABOUT 15Z THIS
MORNING. THEREAFTER WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT AND THIS SHOULD MIX OUT ANY FOG/LOW CLOUDS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH KMSN BY 14Z AND KMKE/KENW/KUES BTWN
16-17Z. THERE IS A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN AT VFR LEVELS. BEHIND THE
FRONT...COOLER UPPER LEVELS WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A STRONG MID LEVEL
SHORT WAVE WILL RESULT IN EXPANDING PRECIPITATION BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE MOSTLY SHOWERS...BUT A THUNDERSTORM IS
POSSIBLE. STILL MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA VERY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING. THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF MVFR
CIGS WITH THAT...BUT SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BY 06Z
MONDAY WITH DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER EXPECTED. LOOK FOR MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS AFTER 06Z MON.

MARINE...

INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS BY THIS EVENING...IN
THE WAKE OF A PASSING COLD FRONT...WILL BRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS FROM ABOUT 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING
ON SUNDAY. WAVES WILL BUILD TO 4 TO 7 FEET TONIGHT...DIMINISHING
SLOWLY ON SUNDAY.

BEACHES...

INCREASING NORTH WINDS WILL BRING BUILDING WAVES TO THE BEACHES
FROM SHEBOYGAN SOUTH THROUGH KENOSHA COUNTY. WAVES WILL REACH 3 TO
4 FEET ALONG THE SHORELINE BY EARLY THIS EVENING...BUILDING TO 4
TO 7 FEET TONIGHT...THEN DIMINISHING SLOWLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EARLY EVENING ON SUNDAY. A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IS IN
EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH
     MONDAY EVENING FOR WIZ052-060-066-071-072.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT MONDAY
     FOR LMZ645-646.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM CDT MONDAY
     FOR LMZ643-644.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DDV
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...DAVIS
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WOOD





000
FXUS63 KMKX 271532 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1032 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE QUICKLY DEVELOPING THIS MORNING
UPSTREAM AS EXPECTED. WILL SEE THIS ACTIVITY PUSH SOUTH INTO THE
FORECAST AREA LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH AXIS
ROTATES THROUGH. STILL EXPECT DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE LATE
THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH DECREASING TEMPS AFTER
THAT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS THE CLOUDS/SHOWERS AND COLDER
AIR ALOFT MOVE IN.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE QUICKLY DEVELOPING THIS MORNING
UPSTREAM AS EXPECTED. WILL SEE THIS ACTIVITY PUSH SOUTH INTO THE
FORECAST AREA LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH AXIS
ROTATES THROUGH. SHOWERS WILL WIND DOWN EARLY THIS EVENING.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY EXCEPT FOR MVFR VSBYS
POSSIBLE WITHIN MODERATE RAINFALL. WILL ALSO MONITOR POSSIBLE
MVFR CIGS AS MAIN COLD POOL ALOFT PUSHES THROUGH TONIGHT...THOUGH
MODEL SOUNDINGS AND MOS SUGGEST VFR CIGS.

IT LOOKS PRETTY QUIET THEN MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
AREA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING...REACHING MADISON BY 14Z AND MILWAUKEE BETWEEN 16-17Z. WE
COULD SEE A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT
OVER THE CWA BEFORE IT EXITS TO THE EAST. HEIGHTS ARE FALLING AS
AN IMPRESSIVELY STRONG UPPER TROF DROPS SOUTH INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. UP UNTIL NOW...THE COLUMN HAS BEEN FAIRLY DRY IN THE
MID LEVELS OVER SOUTHERN WI WITH DECENT CAPPING IN THE LOW
LEVELS...LIMITING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. BUT THIS WILL BE
MOISTENING UP QUICKLY JUST AS TEMPS ALOFT ARE COOLING.

THE HRRR SHOWS CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT JUST AS IT/S
GETTING TO MADISON. THIS ISN/T A SURE THING...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE A
REASONABLE AND POSSIBLE SCENARIO. BEHIND THE FRONT...THE COLD CORE
UPPER SYSTEM DROPS IN AND PRECIP SHOULD EXPAND UNDER THIS LOW BY
EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHEAST CWA. THIS
WILL BE MAINLY SHOWERS...BUT WE COULD CRACK SOME THUNDER...SO WILL
KEEP THAT MENTION.

DRIER WEATHER WORKS IN QUICKLY TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT THAT CLEARS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BY ABOUT 03Z SUN. THIS
WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE 50S.

SHORT TERM...MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS MEDIUM.

SHORT TERM MODELS SHOWING 500 MB TROUGH LINGERING OVER
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA INTO THE EASTERN USA DURING THIS PERIOD. THE
UPPER MIDWEST SHOULD REMAIN IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AS A RESULT.
WEAK 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMA PASS THROUGH THE AREA...MAINLY
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE SHOWING LIGHT QPF ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA DURING THIS TIME.

AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW ENOUGH SHALLOW MEAN LAYER CAPE FOR
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
CONTINUED POPS FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT DRY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS MONDAY...WITH 925 MB
TEMPERATURES SUPPORTING LOWER 70S EAST TO MID 70S WEST. COOL NIGHT
MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S ARE EXPECTED...WITH
MID TO UPPER 70S ON TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

ECMWF/GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW 500 MB TROUGH LINGERING TO THE EAST OF
THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER TROUGH ROTATING
INTO THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. VARIOUS VORTICITY MAXIMA
SHOULD CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE REGION AT TIMES.

GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME WEAK INSTABILITY EACH AFTERNOON
AND EVENING DURING THIS PERIOD...WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND A
FEW STORMS. KEPT POPS GOING FOR MOST OF THIS PERIOD...GIVEN SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXACT TIMING OF PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE PLEASANT DURING THIS TIME...WITH ONSHORE WINDS AT TIMES
NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN KEEPING THINGS COOLER THERE.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

LOOK FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WE
START OUT WITH SOME AREAS OF FOG AND POSSIBLE IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS...BUT THIS WILL ONLY BE A THREAT THROUGH ABOUT 15Z THIS
MORNING. THEREAFTER WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT AND THIS SHOULD MIX OUT ANY FOG/LOW CLOUDS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH KMSN BY 14Z AND KMKE/KENW/KUES BTWN
16-17Z. THERE IS A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN AT VFR LEVELS. BEHIND THE
FRONT...COOLER UPPER LEVELS WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A STRONG MID LEVEL
SHORT WAVE WILL RESULT IN EXPANDING PRECIPITATION BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE MOSTLY SHOWERS...BUT A THUNDERSTORM IS
POSSIBLE. STILL MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA VERY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING. THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF MVFR
CIGS WITH THAT...BUT SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BY 06Z
MONDAY WITH DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER EXPECTED. LOOK FOR MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS AFTER 06Z MON.

MARINE...

INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS BY THIS EVENING...IN
THE WAKE OF A PASSING COLD FRONT...WILL BRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS FROM ABOUT 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING
ON SUNDAY. WAVES WILL BUILD TO 4 TO 7 FEET TONIGHT...DIMINISHING
SLOWLY ON SUNDAY.

BEACHES...

INCREASING NORTH WINDS WILL BRING BUILDING WAVES TO THE BEACHES
FROM SHEBOYGAN SOUTH THROUGH KENOSHA COUNTY. WAVES WILL REACH 3 TO
4 FEET ALONG THE SHORELINE BY EARLY THIS EVENING...BUILDING TO 4
TO 7 FEET TONIGHT...THEN DIMINISHING SLOWLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EARLY EVENING ON SUNDAY. A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IS IN
EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH
     MONDAY EVENING FOR WIZ052-060-066-071-072.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT MONDAY
     FOR LMZ645-646.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM CDT MONDAY
     FOR LMZ643-644.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DDV
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...DAVIS
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WOOD




000
FXUS63 KMKX 270813
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
313 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING...REACHING MADISON BY 14Z AND MILWAUKEE BETWEEN 16-17Z. WE
COULD SEE A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT
OVER THE CWA BEFORE IT EXITS TO THE EAST. HEIGHTS ARE FALLING AS
AN IMPRESSIVELY STRONG UPPER TROF DROPS SOUTH INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. UP UNTIL NOW...THE COLUMN HAS BEEN FAIRLY DRY IN THE
MID LEVELS OVER SOUTHERN WI WITH DECENT CAPPING IN THE LOW
LEVELS...LIMITING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. BUT THIS WILL BE
MOISTENING UP QUICKLY JUST AS TEMPS ALOFT ARE COOLING.

THE HRRR SHOWS CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT JUST AS IT/S
GETTING TO MADISON. THIS ISN/T A SURE THING...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE A
REASONABLE AND POSSIBLE SCENARIO. BEHIND THE FRONT...THE COLD CORE
UPPER SYSTEM DROPS IN AND PRECIP SHOULD EXPAND UNDER THIS LOW BY
EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHEAST CWA. THIS
WILL BE MAINLY SHOWERS...BUT WE COULD CRACK SOME THUNDER...SO WILL
KEEP THAT MENTION.

DRIER WEATHER WORKS IN QUICKLY TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT THAT CLEARS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BY ABOUT 03Z SUN. THIS
WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE 50S.

.SHORT TERM...MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS MEDIUM.

SHORT TERM MODELS SHOWING 500 MB TROUGH LINGERING OVER
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA INTO THE EASTERN USA DURING THIS PERIOD. THE
UPPER MIDWEST SHOULD REMAIN IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AS A RESULT.
WEAK 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMA PASS THROUGH THE AREA...MAINLY
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE SHOWING LIGHT QPF ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA DURING THIS TIME.

AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW ENOUGH SHALLOW MEAN LAYER CAPE FOR
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
CONTINUED POPS FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT DRY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS MONDAY...WITH 925 MB
TEMPERATURES SUPPORTING LOWER 70S EAST TO MID 70S WEST. COOL NIGHT
MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S ARE EXPECTED...WITH
MID TO UPPER 70S ON TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

ECMWF/GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW 500 MB TROUGH LINGERING TO THE EAST OF
THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER TROUGH ROTATING
INTO THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. VARIOUS VORTICITY MAXIMA
SHOULD CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE REGION AT TIMES.

GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME WEAK INSTABILITY EACH AFTERNOON
AND EVENING DURING THIS PERIOD...WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND A
FEW STORMS. KEPT POPS GOING FOR MOST OF THIS PERIOD...GIVEN SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXACT TIMING OF PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE PLEASANT DURING THIS TIME...WITH ONSHORE WINDS AT TIMES
NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN KEEPING THINGS COOLER THERE.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

LOOK FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WE
START OUT WITH SOME AREAS OF FOG AND POSSIBLE IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS...BUT THIS WILL ONLY BE A THREAT THROUGH ABOUT 15Z THIS
MORNING. THEREAFTER WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT AND THIS SHOULD MIX OUT ANY FOG/LOW CLOUDS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH KMSN BY 14Z AND KMKE/KENW/KUES BTWN
16-17Z. THERE IS A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN AT VFR LEVELS. BEHIND THE
FRONT...COOLER UPPER LEVELS WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A STRONG MID LEVEL
SHORT WAVE WILL RESULT IN EXPANDING PRECIPITATION BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE MOSTLY SHOWERS...BUT A THUNDERSTORM IS
POSSIBLE. STILL MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA VERY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING. THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF MVFR
CIGS WITH THAT...BUT SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BY 06Z
MONDAY WITH DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER EXPECTED. LOOK FOR MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS AFTER 06Z MON.

&&

.MARINE...

INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS BY THIS EVENING...IN
THE WAKE OF A PASSING COLD FRONT...WILL BRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS FROM ABOUT 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING
ON SUNDAY. WAVES WILL BUILD TO 4 TO 7 FEET TONIGHT...DIMINISHING
SLOWLY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...

INCREASING NORTH WINDS WILL BRING BUILDING WAVES TO THE BEACHES
FROM SHEBOYGAN SOUTH THROUGH KENOSHA COUNTY. WAVES WILL REACH 3 TO
4 FEET ALONG THE SHORELINE BY EARLY THIS EVENING...BUILDING TO 4
TO 7 FEET TONIGHT...THEN DIMINISHING SLOWLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EARLY EVENING ON SUNDAY. A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IS IN
EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
     FOR WIZ052-060-066-071-072.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT MONDAY
     FOR LMZ645-646.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM CDT MONDAY
     FOR LMZ643-644.

&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DAVIS
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WOOD




000
FXUS63 KMKX 270813
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
313 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING...REACHING MADISON BY 14Z AND MILWAUKEE BETWEEN 16-17Z. WE
COULD SEE A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT
OVER THE CWA BEFORE IT EXITS TO THE EAST. HEIGHTS ARE FALLING AS
AN IMPRESSIVELY STRONG UPPER TROF DROPS SOUTH INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. UP UNTIL NOW...THE COLUMN HAS BEEN FAIRLY DRY IN THE
MID LEVELS OVER SOUTHERN WI WITH DECENT CAPPING IN THE LOW
LEVELS...LIMITING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. BUT THIS WILL BE
MOISTENING UP QUICKLY JUST AS TEMPS ALOFT ARE COOLING.

THE HRRR SHOWS CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT JUST AS IT/S
GETTING TO MADISON. THIS ISN/T A SURE THING...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE A
REASONABLE AND POSSIBLE SCENARIO. BEHIND THE FRONT...THE COLD CORE
UPPER SYSTEM DROPS IN AND PRECIP SHOULD EXPAND UNDER THIS LOW BY
EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHEAST CWA. THIS
WILL BE MAINLY SHOWERS...BUT WE COULD CRACK SOME THUNDER...SO WILL
KEEP THAT MENTION.

DRIER WEATHER WORKS IN QUICKLY TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT THAT CLEARS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BY ABOUT 03Z SUN. THIS
WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE 50S.

.SHORT TERM...MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS MEDIUM.

SHORT TERM MODELS SHOWING 500 MB TROUGH LINGERING OVER
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA INTO THE EASTERN USA DURING THIS PERIOD. THE
UPPER MIDWEST SHOULD REMAIN IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AS A RESULT.
WEAK 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMA PASS THROUGH THE AREA...MAINLY
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE SHOWING LIGHT QPF ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA DURING THIS TIME.

AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW ENOUGH SHALLOW MEAN LAYER CAPE FOR
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
CONTINUED POPS FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT DRY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS MONDAY...WITH 925 MB
TEMPERATURES SUPPORTING LOWER 70S EAST TO MID 70S WEST. COOL NIGHT
MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S ARE EXPECTED...WITH
MID TO UPPER 70S ON TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

ECMWF/GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW 500 MB TROUGH LINGERING TO THE EAST OF
THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER TROUGH ROTATING
INTO THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. VARIOUS VORTICITY MAXIMA
SHOULD CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE REGION AT TIMES.

GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME WEAK INSTABILITY EACH AFTERNOON
AND EVENING DURING THIS PERIOD...WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND A
FEW STORMS. KEPT POPS GOING FOR MOST OF THIS PERIOD...GIVEN SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXACT TIMING OF PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE PLEASANT DURING THIS TIME...WITH ONSHORE WINDS AT TIMES
NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN KEEPING THINGS COOLER THERE.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

LOOK FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WE
START OUT WITH SOME AREAS OF FOG AND POSSIBLE IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS...BUT THIS WILL ONLY BE A THREAT THROUGH ABOUT 15Z THIS
MORNING. THEREAFTER WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT AND THIS SHOULD MIX OUT ANY FOG/LOW CLOUDS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH KMSN BY 14Z AND KMKE/KENW/KUES BTWN
16-17Z. THERE IS A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN AT VFR LEVELS. BEHIND THE
FRONT...COOLER UPPER LEVELS WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A STRONG MID LEVEL
SHORT WAVE WILL RESULT IN EXPANDING PRECIPITATION BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE MOSTLY SHOWERS...BUT A THUNDERSTORM IS
POSSIBLE. STILL MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA VERY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING. THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF MVFR
CIGS WITH THAT...BUT SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BY 06Z
MONDAY WITH DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER EXPECTED. LOOK FOR MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS AFTER 06Z MON.

&&

.MARINE...

INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS BY THIS EVENING...IN
THE WAKE OF A PASSING COLD FRONT...WILL BRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS FROM ABOUT 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING
ON SUNDAY. WAVES WILL BUILD TO 4 TO 7 FEET TONIGHT...DIMINISHING
SLOWLY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...

INCREASING NORTH WINDS WILL BRING BUILDING WAVES TO THE BEACHES
FROM SHEBOYGAN SOUTH THROUGH KENOSHA COUNTY. WAVES WILL REACH 3 TO
4 FEET ALONG THE SHORELINE BY EARLY THIS EVENING...BUILDING TO 4
TO 7 FEET TONIGHT...THEN DIMINISHING SLOWLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EARLY EVENING ON SUNDAY. A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IS IN
EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
     FOR WIZ052-060-066-071-072.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT MONDAY
     FOR LMZ645-646.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM CDT MONDAY
     FOR LMZ643-644.

&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DAVIS
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WOOD





000
FXUS63 KMKX 270230
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
930 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.UPDATE...WILL CONTINUE SMALL CHANCE FOR CONVECTION AFTER MIDNIGHT
AS VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTHEAST
ACROSS NORTHERN MN TOWARD NORTHWEST WI. ENHANCED FORCING ALSO FROM
LEFT EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET CLIPPING CENTRAL WI. MOISTURE
INCREASES IN THE MID-LEVELS AS HEIGHTS FALL INCREASING MID-LEVEL
INSTABILITY AS WELL. THIS STRONG MID-LEVEL WAVE PASSES ACROSS
SOUTHERN WI FROM MID-MORNING THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON. STRONGEST
FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE SPREADS IN DURING THE MORNING. HENCE
BEEFED UP POPS ACROSS MORE OF THE NORTH TO LIKELY IN THE MID-LATE
MORNING.

DESPITE RECENT DRY SPELL...MAY BE SOME TIME FOR PATCHY FOG TO
DEVELOP DUE TO WARM DEWPOINTS AND A WINDOW OF LIGHTER WINDS. THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AS THE SFC CDFNT
PUSHES INTO NORTHWEST CWA. HENCE ADDED PATCHY FOG MENTION AT THIS
POINT.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...ADDED SOME LIGHT FOG TO TAF SITES FOR THE
OVERNIGHT UNTIL BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS PICK UP LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY. MVFR CIGS MAY ACCOMPANY SCT TO NUMEROUS -SHRA AND
-TSRA ACROSS SRN WI ON SUNDAY WITH MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS
SETTLING IN FOR A PERIOD SUN NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...EXPANDED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO INCLUDE NORTHERN ZONES
AND BEGIN MID-AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY. EXPECT GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
EXCEEDING 22 KNOTS TO AFFECT THESE AREAS BEHIND STRONG COLD FRONT
WHICH WILL PASS THROUGH IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL
INCREASE BUT THE HIGHEST WAVES ARE NOT EXPECTED UNTIL SUN NIGHT
INTO MONDAY WHEN THE WINDS TURN MORE NNE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014/

SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

BUMPED UP POPS A BIT FOR TONIGHT AS LATEST MODELS ARE SHOWING A BIT
MORE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. LOW LEVEL FRONT...BEST DEFINED AT 850
MB...WILL DROP THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOWING UPWARD OF 2000 J/KG CAPE AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG
WITH 40-45 KT OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR. 12Z MESOSCALE MODELS IN DECENT
AGREEMENT SHOWING SOME ORGANIZED CONVECTION. COULD BE SOME HAIL WITH
THE STORMS IF THEY DO GET GOING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE ONLY
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND AN INCH...WITH STORM MOTION VECTORS OF AROUND
40 KNOTS...SO NOT CONCERNED ABOUT SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL.

UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS/STORMS EXPECTED...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. BEST
CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...WHERE POPS WERE BUMPED UP TO
CATEGORICAL. INSTABILITY WILL BE DECREASING SOME THROUGH THE DAY AS
DRIER AND COOLER AIR ADVECTS IN...SO DECREASED THUNDER CHANCES A BIT
FOR THE AFTERNOON. WARMEST TEMPS WILL BE LATE MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON TOMORROW...BEFORE CLOUDS...SHOWERS...AND CONTINUED COLD
ADVECTION WILL COOL THINGS OFF FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

THE MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER LOWER MICHIGAN MOVES TOWARD THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES WHILE THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. 500 MB TEMPERATURES COOL TO AROUND -15
CELSIUS AND AROUND 8 CELSIUS AT 850 MB. LAPSE RATES ARE RATHER
STEEP BELOW A STRONG 725 MB INVERSION. THIS INVERSION SHOULD KEEP
ANY SHOWER POTENTIAL VERY LOW...BUT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS COULD
FORM WITH HIGH RH AROUND 850 MB AND LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 8 TO
10 CELSIUS/KM AND CAPE AROUND 70 JOULES/KG BELOW THE INVERSION.

BRISK NORTH WINDS CONTINUE NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
THE EASTERN PLAINS BEGINS TO BUILD EAST.

LONG TERM...

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

CONTINUED VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE GFS/ECMWF AND DGEX. THE
MID/UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS AND UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ALTHOUGH THE COOL AIR ALOFT SHOULD BRING
SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS...TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

THE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH BECOMES MORE BROAD AND RETROGRADES A
LITTLE TOWARD THE WEST. THIS KEEPS MORE DIURNAL PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AND CONTINUES THE RATHER COOL SUMMER TEMPERATURES. MAINLY
THE GFS BRINGS A WEAK SHORTWAVE INTO WISCONSIN FROM THE NORTH
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH THE GFS GENERATING PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING...ALONG WITH THE
AFTERNOON DIURNAL INCREASE. THE SURFACE HIGH EXTENDS EAST ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES...DESPITE THE WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH.

SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

THE SURFACE HIGH REMAINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES...AS THE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY CONTINUES TO WEAKEN.

BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS REDUCE THE AMOUNT OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

THERE COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES AS HIGH BASED SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT DRY WEATHER
THROUGH LATE EVENING. COULD THEN SEE A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS TONIGHT
ALONG 850 MB COLD FRONT...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS PUSHES
THROUGH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

THERE WILL BE INCREASING DRY AIR LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...SO
SHOULD MAINLY SEE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY.

MARINE...

WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY...WITH GUSTS TO 25
KNOTS LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON FROM MILWAUKEE SOUTHWARD. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IS THUS BEING ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE SOUTHERN
TWO MARINE ZONES.

THE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHERLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH
SOME HIGHER GUST THEN POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH. THUS THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY MAY HAVE TO EVENTUALLY BE EXPANDED NORTHWARD. WAVES WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 4 FEET...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE SHORE...BUT MAY
GET NEAR OR ABOVE 4 FEET FOR A TIME AS THE WINDS TURN NORTHERLY.
CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO SETTLE DOWN BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 4 PM CDT MONDAY FOR
     LMZ645-646.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM SUNDAY TO 4 PM CDT MONDAY FOR
     LMZ643-644.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MBK





000
FXUS63 KMKX 270230
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
930 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.UPDATE...WILL CONTINUE SMALL CHANCE FOR CONVECTION AFTER MIDNIGHT
AS VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTHEAST
ACROSS NORTHERN MN TOWARD NORTHWEST WI. ENHANCED FORCING ALSO FROM
LEFT EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET CLIPPING CENTRAL WI. MOISTURE
INCREASES IN THE MID-LEVELS AS HEIGHTS FALL INCREASING MID-LEVEL
INSTABILITY AS WELL. THIS STRONG MID-LEVEL WAVE PASSES ACROSS
SOUTHERN WI FROM MID-MORNING THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON. STRONGEST
FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE SPREADS IN DURING THE MORNING. HENCE
BEEFED UP POPS ACROSS MORE OF THE NORTH TO LIKELY IN THE MID-LATE
MORNING.

DESPITE RECENT DRY SPELL...MAY BE SOME TIME FOR PATCHY FOG TO
DEVELOP DUE TO WARM DEWPOINTS AND A WINDOW OF LIGHTER WINDS. THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AS THE SFC CDFNT
PUSHES INTO NORTHWEST CWA. HENCE ADDED PATCHY FOG MENTION AT THIS
POINT.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...ADDED SOME LIGHT FOG TO TAF SITES FOR THE
OVERNIGHT UNTIL BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS PICK UP LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY. MVFR CIGS MAY ACCOMPANY SCT TO NUMEROUS -SHRA AND
-TSRA ACROSS SRN WI ON SUNDAY WITH MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS
SETTLING IN FOR A PERIOD SUN NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...EXPANDED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO INCLUDE NORTHERN ZONES
AND BEGIN MID-AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY. EXPECT GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
EXCEEDING 22 KNOTS TO AFFECT THESE AREAS BEHIND STRONG COLD FRONT
WHICH WILL PASS THROUGH IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL
INCREASE BUT THE HIGHEST WAVES ARE NOT EXPECTED UNTIL SUN NIGHT
INTO MONDAY WHEN THE WINDS TURN MORE NNE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014/

SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

BUMPED UP POPS A BIT FOR TONIGHT AS LATEST MODELS ARE SHOWING A BIT
MORE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. LOW LEVEL FRONT...BEST DEFINED AT 850
MB...WILL DROP THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOWING UPWARD OF 2000 J/KG CAPE AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG
WITH 40-45 KT OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR. 12Z MESOSCALE MODELS IN DECENT
AGREEMENT SHOWING SOME ORGANIZED CONVECTION. COULD BE SOME HAIL WITH
THE STORMS IF THEY DO GET GOING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE ONLY
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND AN INCH...WITH STORM MOTION VECTORS OF AROUND
40 KNOTS...SO NOT CONCERNED ABOUT SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL.

UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS/STORMS EXPECTED...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. BEST
CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...WHERE POPS WERE BUMPED UP TO
CATEGORICAL. INSTABILITY WILL BE DECREASING SOME THROUGH THE DAY AS
DRIER AND COOLER AIR ADVECTS IN...SO DECREASED THUNDER CHANCES A BIT
FOR THE AFTERNOON. WARMEST TEMPS WILL BE LATE MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON TOMORROW...BEFORE CLOUDS...SHOWERS...AND CONTINUED COLD
ADVECTION WILL COOL THINGS OFF FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

THE MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER LOWER MICHIGAN MOVES TOWARD THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES WHILE THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. 500 MB TEMPERATURES COOL TO AROUND -15
CELSIUS AND AROUND 8 CELSIUS AT 850 MB. LAPSE RATES ARE RATHER
STEEP BELOW A STRONG 725 MB INVERSION. THIS INVERSION SHOULD KEEP
ANY SHOWER POTENTIAL VERY LOW...BUT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS COULD
FORM WITH HIGH RH AROUND 850 MB AND LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 8 TO
10 CELSIUS/KM AND CAPE AROUND 70 JOULES/KG BELOW THE INVERSION.

BRISK NORTH WINDS CONTINUE NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
THE EASTERN PLAINS BEGINS TO BUILD EAST.

LONG TERM...

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

CONTINUED VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE GFS/ECMWF AND DGEX. THE
MID/UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS AND UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ALTHOUGH THE COOL AIR ALOFT SHOULD BRING
SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS...TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

THE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH BECOMES MORE BROAD AND RETROGRADES A
LITTLE TOWARD THE WEST. THIS KEEPS MORE DIURNAL PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AND CONTINUES THE RATHER COOL SUMMER TEMPERATURES. MAINLY
THE GFS BRINGS A WEAK SHORTWAVE INTO WISCONSIN FROM THE NORTH
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH THE GFS GENERATING PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING...ALONG WITH THE
AFTERNOON DIURNAL INCREASE. THE SURFACE HIGH EXTENDS EAST ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES...DESPITE THE WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH.

SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

THE SURFACE HIGH REMAINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES...AS THE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY CONTINUES TO WEAKEN.

BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS REDUCE THE AMOUNT OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

THERE COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES AS HIGH BASED SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT DRY WEATHER
THROUGH LATE EVENING. COULD THEN SEE A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS TONIGHT
ALONG 850 MB COLD FRONT...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS PUSHES
THROUGH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

THERE WILL BE INCREASING DRY AIR LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...SO
SHOULD MAINLY SEE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY.

MARINE...

WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY...WITH GUSTS TO 25
KNOTS LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON FROM MILWAUKEE SOUTHWARD. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IS THUS BEING ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE SOUTHERN
TWO MARINE ZONES.

THE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHERLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH
SOME HIGHER GUST THEN POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH. THUS THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY MAY HAVE TO EVENTUALLY BE EXPANDED NORTHWARD. WAVES WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 4 FEET...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE SHORE...BUT MAY
GET NEAR OR ABOVE 4 FEET FOR A TIME AS THE WINDS TURN NORTHERLY.
CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO SETTLE DOWN BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 4 PM CDT MONDAY FOR
     LMZ645-646.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM SUNDAY TO 4 PM CDT MONDAY FOR
     LMZ643-644.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MBK




000
FXUS63 KMKX 262018
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
318 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...

.TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

BUMPED UP POPS A BIT FOR TONIGHT AS LATEST MODELS ARE SHOWING A BIT
MORE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. LOW LEVEL FRONT...BEST DEFINED AT 850
MB...WILL DROP THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOWING UPWARD OF 2000 J/KG CAPE AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG
WITH 40-45 KT OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR. 12Z MESOSCALE MODELS IN DECENT
AGREEMENT SHOWING SOME ORGANIZED CONVECTION. COULD BE SOME HAIL WITH
THE STORMS IF THEY DO GET GOING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE ONLY
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND AN INCH...WITH STORM MOTION VECTORS OF AROUND
40 KNOTS...SO NOT CONCERNED ABOUT SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL.

UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS/STORMS EXPECTED...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. BEST
CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...WHERE POPS WERE BUMPED UP TO
CATEGORICAL. INSTABILITY WILL BE DECREASING SOME THROUGH THE DAY AS
DRIER AND COOLER AIR ADVECTS IN...SO DECREASED THUNDER CHANCES A BIT
FOR THE AFTERNOON. WARMEST TEMPS WILL BE LATE MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON TOMORROW...BEFORE CLOUDS...SHOWERS...AND CONTINUED COLD
ADVECTION WILL COOL THINGS OFF FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

.SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

THE MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER LOWER MICHIGAN MOVES TOWARD THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES WHILE THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. 500 MB TEMPERATURES COOL TO AROUND -15
CELSIUS AND AROUND 8 CELSIUS AT 850 MB. LAPSE RATES ARE RATHER
STEEP BELOW A STRONG 725 MB INVERSION. THIS INVERSION SHOULD KEEP
ANY SHOWER POTENTIAL VERY LOW...BUT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS COULD
FORM WITH HIGH RH AROUND 850 MB AND LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 8 TO
10 CELSIUS/KM AND CAPE AROUND 70 JOULES/KG BELOW THE INVERSION.

BRISK NORTH WINDS CONTINUE NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
THE EASTERN PLAINS BEGINS TO BUILD EAST.

.LONG TERM...

.TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

CONTINUED VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE GFS/ECMWF AND DGEX. THE
MID/UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS AND UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ALTHOUGH THE COOL AIR ALOFT SHOULD BRING
SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS...TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

.THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

THE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH BECOMES MORE BROAD AND RETROGRADES A
LITTLE TOWARD THE WEST. THIS KEEPS MORE DIURNAL PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AND CONTINUES THE RATHER COOL SUMMER TEMPERATURES. MAINLY
THE GFS BRINGS A WEAK SHORTWAVE INTO WISCONSIN FROM THE NORTH
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH THE GFS GENERATING PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING...ALONG WITH THE
AFTERNOON DIURNAL INCREASE. THE SURFACE HIGH EXTENDS EAST ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES...DESPITE THE WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH.

.SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

THE SURFACE HIGH REMAINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES...AS THE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY CONTINUES TO WEAKEN.

BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS REDUCE THE AMOUNT OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

THERE COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES AS HIGH BASED SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT DRY WEATHER
THROUGH LATE EVENING. COULD THEN SEE A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS TONIGHT
ALONG 850 MB COLD FRONT...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS PUSHES
THROUGH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

THERE WILL BE INCREASING DRY AIR LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...SO
SHOULD MAINLY SEE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY...WITH GUSTS TO 25
KNOTS LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON FROM MILWAUKEE SOUTHWARD. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IS THUS BEING ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE SOUTHERN
TWO MARINE ZONES.

THE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHERLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH
SOME HIGHER GUST THEN POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH. THUS THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY MAY HAVE TO EVENTUALLY BE EXPANDED NORTHWARD. WAVES WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 4 FEET...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE SHORE...BUT MAY
GET NEAR OR ABOVE 4 FEET FOR A TIME AS THE WINDS TURN NORTHERLY.
CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO SETTLE DOWN BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 4 PM CDT MONDAY FOR
     LMZ645-646.

&&

$$

TONIGHT/SUNDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...DDV
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...HENTZ





000
FXUS63 KMKX 262018
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
318 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...

.TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

BUMPED UP POPS A BIT FOR TONIGHT AS LATEST MODELS ARE SHOWING A BIT
MORE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. LOW LEVEL FRONT...BEST DEFINED AT 850
MB...WILL DROP THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOWING UPWARD OF 2000 J/KG CAPE AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG
WITH 40-45 KT OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR. 12Z MESOSCALE MODELS IN DECENT
AGREEMENT SHOWING SOME ORGANIZED CONVECTION. COULD BE SOME HAIL WITH
THE STORMS IF THEY DO GET GOING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE ONLY
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND AN INCH...WITH STORM MOTION VECTORS OF AROUND
40 KNOTS...SO NOT CONCERNED ABOUT SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL.

UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS/STORMS EXPECTED...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. BEST
CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...WHERE POPS WERE BUMPED UP TO
CATEGORICAL. INSTABILITY WILL BE DECREASING SOME THROUGH THE DAY AS
DRIER AND COOLER AIR ADVECTS IN...SO DECREASED THUNDER CHANCES A BIT
FOR THE AFTERNOON. WARMEST TEMPS WILL BE LATE MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON TOMORROW...BEFORE CLOUDS...SHOWERS...AND CONTINUED COLD
ADVECTION WILL COOL THINGS OFF FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

.SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

THE MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER LOWER MICHIGAN MOVES TOWARD THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES WHILE THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. 500 MB TEMPERATURES COOL TO AROUND -15
CELSIUS AND AROUND 8 CELSIUS AT 850 MB. LAPSE RATES ARE RATHER
STEEP BELOW A STRONG 725 MB INVERSION. THIS INVERSION SHOULD KEEP
ANY SHOWER POTENTIAL VERY LOW...BUT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS COULD
FORM WITH HIGH RH AROUND 850 MB AND LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 8 TO
10 CELSIUS/KM AND CAPE AROUND 70 JOULES/KG BELOW THE INVERSION.

BRISK NORTH WINDS CONTINUE NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
THE EASTERN PLAINS BEGINS TO BUILD EAST.

.LONG TERM...

.TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

CONTINUED VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE GFS/ECMWF AND DGEX. THE
MID/UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS AND UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ALTHOUGH THE COOL AIR ALOFT SHOULD BRING
SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS...TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

.THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

THE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH BECOMES MORE BROAD AND RETROGRADES A
LITTLE TOWARD THE WEST. THIS KEEPS MORE DIURNAL PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AND CONTINUES THE RATHER COOL SUMMER TEMPERATURES. MAINLY
THE GFS BRINGS A WEAK SHORTWAVE INTO WISCONSIN FROM THE NORTH
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH THE GFS GENERATING PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING...ALONG WITH THE
AFTERNOON DIURNAL INCREASE. THE SURFACE HIGH EXTENDS EAST ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES...DESPITE THE WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH.

.SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

THE SURFACE HIGH REMAINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES...AS THE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY CONTINUES TO WEAKEN.

BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS REDUCE THE AMOUNT OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

THERE COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES AS HIGH BASED SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT DRY WEATHER
THROUGH LATE EVENING. COULD THEN SEE A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS TONIGHT
ALONG 850 MB COLD FRONT...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS PUSHES
THROUGH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

THERE WILL BE INCREASING DRY AIR LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...SO
SHOULD MAINLY SEE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY...WITH GUSTS TO 25
KNOTS LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON FROM MILWAUKEE SOUTHWARD. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IS THUS BEING ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE SOUTHERN
TWO MARINE ZONES.

THE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHERLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH
SOME HIGHER GUST THEN POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH. THUS THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY MAY HAVE TO EVENTUALLY BE EXPANDED NORTHWARD. WAVES WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 4 FEET...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE SHORE...BUT MAY
GET NEAR OR ABOVE 4 FEET FOR A TIME AS THE WINDS TURN NORTHERLY.
CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO SETTLE DOWN BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 4 PM CDT MONDAY FOR
     LMZ645-646.

&&

$$

TONIGHT/SUNDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...DDV
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...HENTZ




000
FXUS63 KMKX 261513 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1013 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.UPDATE...

WATCHING AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS UPSTREAM AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE
AND VORT MAX APPROACH. LATEST RAP AND HRRR SUGGEST POPS MAY NEED
TO BE BUMPED UP A BIT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A TON OF RAIN...BUT
SOME LOCATIONS MAY SEE AT LEAST ENOUGH TO WET THE GROUND.

THERE IS A NICE POCKET OF CLEARING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST FORECAST
AREA RIGHT NOW. THERE ARE ALSO A LOT OF CLOUDS UP STREAM...SO
LOOKS LIKE SUN MAY BE LIMITED IN THE AFTERNOON. IF THIS PANS
OUT...HIGH TEMPS WILL PROBABLY NEED TO BE LOWERED A BIT.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

WATCHING AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS UPSTREAM AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE AND VORT MAX APPROACH. IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A TON OF
RAIN...BUT SOME LOCATIONS MAY SEE AT LEAST ENOUGH TO WET THE
GROUND THIS AFTERNOON. WILL WATCH UPSTREAM CONDITIONS AND UPDATE
TAFS AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES.

LATEST RAP AND NAM SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ENOUGH MIXING TODAY FOR VFR
CONDITIONS TO RETURN MOST PLACES BY AFTERNOON. SHOULD SEE MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS THEN THROUGH SUNDAY. LOOKS LIKE A DECENT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE
FRONT MOVE THROUGH.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

EXPECTING A QUIET...WARM AND HUMID DAY TODAY. WARM ADVECTION WITH
A DEPARTING SHORTWAVE IS BRINGING SOME SHOWERS TO NORTHERN IL
EARLY THIS MORNING AND SOME SPRINKLES ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN WI.
THIS SHOULD MOSTLY BE OUT OF THE AREA BY OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.

MODELS THEN SHOW A WEAK MID LEVEL RIPPLE COMING ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON...ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE IMPRESSIVE
CLOSED SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF SCNTRL CANADA. HOWEVER...THERE
IS A FORMIDABLE DRY LAYER FROM BELOW 850MB THROUGH ABOUT 650MB
THAT WILL MAKE IT HARD TO PRECIPITATE THROUGH.

ADDITIONALLY...THERE IS A RATHER STRONG LOW LEVEL CAP THAT WILL
WORK TO PREVENT ANY DEVELOPMENT. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP IT DRY
TODAY. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP IT DRY TODAY. LOWER CLOUDS AROUND
THIS MORNING...ASSOCIATED WITH THE EXITING SHORT WAVE...SHOULD
GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT WITH SUNSHINE EXPECTED. HIGHS SHOULD EASILY
HIT THE LOWER TO MID 80S.

THE LARGE CANADIAN SYSTEM WILL PUSH INTO NORTHWEST WI BY 12Z SUN
WITH SURFACE TROFING PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA AS WELL. THE COLUMN
STILL LOOKS QUITE DRY OUT AHEAD OF THE UPPER SYSTEM AND WE/LL
PROBABLY HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL SUNDAY FOR BETTER SATURATION AND
INSTABILITY TO BRING PRECIP WITH THE COOLING TEMPS ALOFT. WILL
INTRO A SMALL POP ACROSS THE NORTH AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT FOR THE
SMALL THREAT THERE.

SHORT TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

MODELS PUSH SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REST
OF THE AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS...WITH A SECONDARY TROUGH
MOVING SOUTH INTO THE AREA BY 00Z MONDAY. STRONG 500 MB SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ALSO SLIDES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY.

AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM SHOWING A GOOD AMOUNT OF
MEAN LAYER CAPE AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR UNTIL AROUND 15Z SUNDAY IN
THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA...WHICH WOULD BRING A HAIL/WIND
RISK. GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW MUCH LESS INSTABILITY IN THE MORNING IN
THIS AREA...SO THINK NAM IS LIKELY OVERDONE WITH THE INSTABILITY.

BOTH MODELS DO BRING SOME RATHER WEAK TALL/SKINNY CAPE TO THE
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. KEPT LIKELY POPS IN THE AFTERNOON IN
MOST OF THE AREA...WITH RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY AND CHANCE OF THUNDER.
KEPT LOWER END POPS IN THE EVENING IN THE EAST...UNTIL COOLER AND
DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION ENDS THE PRECIPITATION. HIGHS
SUNDAY SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...THEN FALL INTO
THE EVENING WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION.

500 MB TROUGH REMAINS OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA AND INTO THE
NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC REGION. THIS WILL KEEP 500 MB FLOW
NORTHWESTERLY OVER THE REGION...WITH WEAK VORTICITY MAXIMA MOVING
THROUGH AT TIMES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT...WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION
BRINGING COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR INTO THE AREA.

NAM ONLY MODEL SHOWING QPF MONDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT WITH SHOWERS.
KEPT MONDAY DRY AS OTHER MODELS KEEP DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES
WILL REACH THE LOWER TO MID 70S MONDAY...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE
50S SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

ECMWF/GFS GENERALLY SHOW NORTHWEST FLOW AT 500 MB REMAINING OVER
THE REGION FOR THIS PERIOD...WITH WEAK VORTICITY MAXIMA MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA AT TIMES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SLOWLY
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY AREA. THE MODELS GENERATE QPF DURING EACH AFTERNOON
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW WEAK INSTABILITY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH BETTER MEAN LAYER CAPES IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS
FOR LATER IN THE WEEK. FOR NOW...CONTINUED TO HAVE LOWER END POPS
EACH DAY AND NIGHT FOR MOST OF THIS PERIOD. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
BE SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS EACH DAY.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

LOOK FOR AN AREA OF MVFR CLOUDS THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY FROM
KMSN ON WEST. THESE CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK TROF AND
WARM ADVECTION MOVING THROUGH AND SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE FROM
WEST TO EAST SHORTLY AFTER 12Z THIS MORNING. THEN LOOK FOR VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

THE CHANCES OF SHOWER OR STORMS LOOK VERY SMALL UNTIL WE GET
CLOSER TO THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW DROPPING
IN AROUND 12Z SUNDAY MORNING. SO...GENERALLY A VERY QUIET TAF
PERIOD WITH LIGHT WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

MARINE...

COULD SEE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS DEVELOP LATER SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY...AS NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE IN THE WAKE OF PASSING
LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DDV
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DAVIS
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WOOD





000
FXUS63 KMKX 261513 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1013 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.UPDATE...

WATCHING AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS UPSTREAM AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE
AND VORT MAX APPROACH. LATEST RAP AND HRRR SUGGEST POPS MAY NEED
TO BE BUMPED UP A BIT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A TON OF RAIN...BUT
SOME LOCATIONS MAY SEE AT LEAST ENOUGH TO WET THE GROUND.

THERE IS A NICE POCKET OF CLEARING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST FORECAST
AREA RIGHT NOW. THERE ARE ALSO A LOT OF CLOUDS UP STREAM...SO
LOOKS LIKE SUN MAY BE LIMITED IN THE AFTERNOON. IF THIS PANS
OUT...HIGH TEMPS WILL PROBABLY NEED TO BE LOWERED A BIT.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

WATCHING AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS UPSTREAM AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE AND VORT MAX APPROACH. IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A TON OF
RAIN...BUT SOME LOCATIONS MAY SEE AT LEAST ENOUGH TO WET THE
GROUND THIS AFTERNOON. WILL WATCH UPSTREAM CONDITIONS AND UPDATE
TAFS AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES.

LATEST RAP AND NAM SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ENOUGH MIXING TODAY FOR VFR
CONDITIONS TO RETURN MOST PLACES BY AFTERNOON. SHOULD SEE MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS THEN THROUGH SUNDAY. LOOKS LIKE A DECENT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE
FRONT MOVE THROUGH.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

EXPECTING A QUIET...WARM AND HUMID DAY TODAY. WARM ADVECTION WITH
A DEPARTING SHORTWAVE IS BRINGING SOME SHOWERS TO NORTHERN IL
EARLY THIS MORNING AND SOME SPRINKLES ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN WI.
THIS SHOULD MOSTLY BE OUT OF THE AREA BY OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.

MODELS THEN SHOW A WEAK MID LEVEL RIPPLE COMING ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON...ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE IMPRESSIVE
CLOSED SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF SCNTRL CANADA. HOWEVER...THERE
IS A FORMIDABLE DRY LAYER FROM BELOW 850MB THROUGH ABOUT 650MB
THAT WILL MAKE IT HARD TO PRECIPITATE THROUGH.

ADDITIONALLY...THERE IS A RATHER STRONG LOW LEVEL CAP THAT WILL
WORK TO PREVENT ANY DEVELOPMENT. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP IT DRY
TODAY. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP IT DRY TODAY. LOWER CLOUDS AROUND
THIS MORNING...ASSOCIATED WITH THE EXITING SHORT WAVE...SHOULD
GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT WITH SUNSHINE EXPECTED. HIGHS SHOULD EASILY
HIT THE LOWER TO MID 80S.

THE LARGE CANADIAN SYSTEM WILL PUSH INTO NORTHWEST WI BY 12Z SUN
WITH SURFACE TROFING PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA AS WELL. THE COLUMN
STILL LOOKS QUITE DRY OUT AHEAD OF THE UPPER SYSTEM AND WE/LL
PROBABLY HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL SUNDAY FOR BETTER SATURATION AND
INSTABILITY TO BRING PRECIP WITH THE COOLING TEMPS ALOFT. WILL
INTRO A SMALL POP ACROSS THE NORTH AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT FOR THE
SMALL THREAT THERE.

SHORT TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

MODELS PUSH SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REST
OF THE AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS...WITH A SECONDARY TROUGH
MOVING SOUTH INTO THE AREA BY 00Z MONDAY. STRONG 500 MB SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ALSO SLIDES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY.

AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM SHOWING A GOOD AMOUNT OF
MEAN LAYER CAPE AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR UNTIL AROUND 15Z SUNDAY IN
THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA...WHICH WOULD BRING A HAIL/WIND
RISK. GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW MUCH LESS INSTABILITY IN THE MORNING IN
THIS AREA...SO THINK NAM IS LIKELY OVERDONE WITH THE INSTABILITY.

BOTH MODELS DO BRING SOME RATHER WEAK TALL/SKINNY CAPE TO THE
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. KEPT LIKELY POPS IN THE AFTERNOON IN
MOST OF THE AREA...WITH RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY AND CHANCE OF THUNDER.
KEPT LOWER END POPS IN THE EVENING IN THE EAST...UNTIL COOLER AND
DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION ENDS THE PRECIPITATION. HIGHS
SUNDAY SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...THEN FALL INTO
THE EVENING WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION.

500 MB TROUGH REMAINS OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA AND INTO THE
NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC REGION. THIS WILL KEEP 500 MB FLOW
NORTHWESTERLY OVER THE REGION...WITH WEAK VORTICITY MAXIMA MOVING
THROUGH AT TIMES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT...WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION
BRINGING COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR INTO THE AREA.

NAM ONLY MODEL SHOWING QPF MONDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT WITH SHOWERS.
KEPT MONDAY DRY AS OTHER MODELS KEEP DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES
WILL REACH THE LOWER TO MID 70S MONDAY...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE
50S SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

ECMWF/GFS GENERALLY SHOW NORTHWEST FLOW AT 500 MB REMAINING OVER
THE REGION FOR THIS PERIOD...WITH WEAK VORTICITY MAXIMA MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA AT TIMES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SLOWLY
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY AREA. THE MODELS GENERATE QPF DURING EACH AFTERNOON
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW WEAK INSTABILITY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH BETTER MEAN LAYER CAPES IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS
FOR LATER IN THE WEEK. FOR NOW...CONTINUED TO HAVE LOWER END POPS
EACH DAY AND NIGHT FOR MOST OF THIS PERIOD. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
BE SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS EACH DAY.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

LOOK FOR AN AREA OF MVFR CLOUDS THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY FROM
KMSN ON WEST. THESE CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK TROF AND
WARM ADVECTION MOVING THROUGH AND SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE FROM
WEST TO EAST SHORTLY AFTER 12Z THIS MORNING. THEN LOOK FOR VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

THE CHANCES OF SHOWER OR STORMS LOOK VERY SMALL UNTIL WE GET
CLOSER TO THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW DROPPING
IN AROUND 12Z SUNDAY MORNING. SO...GENERALLY A VERY QUIET TAF
PERIOD WITH LIGHT WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

MARINE...

COULD SEE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS DEVELOP LATER SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY...AS NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE IN THE WAKE OF PASSING
LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DDV
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DAVIS
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WOOD




000
FXUS63 KMKX 260822
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
322 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

EXPECTING A QUIET...WARM AND HUMID DAY TODAY. WARM ADVECTION WITH
A DEPARTING SHORTWAVE IS BRINGING SOME SHOWERS TO NORTHERN IL
EARLY THIS MORNING AND SOME SPRINKLES ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN WI.
THIS SHOULD MOSTLY BE OUT OF THE AREA BY OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.

MODELS THEN SHOW A WEAK MID LEVEL RIPPLE COMING ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON...ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE IMPRESSIVE
CLOSED SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF SCNTRL CANADA. HOWEVER...THERE
IS A FORMIDABLE DRY LAYER FROM BELOW 850MB THROUGH ABOUT 650MB
THAT WILL MAKE IT HARD TO PRECIPITATE THROUGH.

ADDITIONALLY...THERE IS A RATHER STRONG LOW LEVEL CAP THAT WILL
WORK TO PREVENT ANY DEVELOPMENT. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP IT DRY
TODAY. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP IT DRY TODAY. LOWER CLOUDS AROUND
THIS MORNING...ASSOCIATED WITH THE EXITING SHORT WAVE...SHOULD
GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT WITH SUNSHINE EXPECTED. HIGHS SHOULD EASILY
HIT THE LOWER TO MID 80S.

THE LARGE CANADIAN SYSTEM WILL PUSH INTO NORTHWEST WI BY 12Z SUN
WITH SURFACE TROFING PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA AS WELL. THE COLUMN
STILL LOOKS QUITE DRY OUT AHEAD OF THE UPPER SYSTEM AND WE/LL
PROBABLY HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL SUNDAY FOR BETTER SATURATION AND
INSTABILITY TO BRING PRECIP WITH THE COOLING TEMPS ALOFT. WILL
INTRO A SMALL POP ACROSS THE NORTH AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT FOR THE
SMALL THREAT THERE.

.SHORT TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

MODELS PUSH SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REST
OF THE AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS...WITH A SECONDARY TROUGH
MOVING SOUTH INTO THE AREA BY 00Z MONDAY. STRONG 500 MB SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ALSO SLIDES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY.

AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM SHOWING A GOOD AMOUNT OF
MEAN LAYER CAPE AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR UNTIL AROUND 15Z SUNDAY IN
THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA...WHICH WOULD BRING A HAIL/WIND
RISK. GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW MUCH LESS INSTABILITY IN THE MORNING IN
THIS AREA...SO THINK NAM IS LIKELY OVERDONE WITH THE INSTABILITY.

BOTH MODELS DO BRING SOME RATHER WEAK TALL/SKINNY CAPE TO THE
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. KEPT LIKELY POPS IN THE AFTERNOON IN
MOST OF THE AREA...WITH RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY AND CHANCE OF THUNDER.
KEPT LOWER END POPS IN THE EVENING IN THE EAST...UNTIL COOLER AND
DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION ENDS THE PRECIPITATION. HIGHS
SUNDAY SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...THEN FALL INTO
THE EVENING WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION.

500 MB TROUGH REMAINS OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA AND INTO THE
NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC REGION. THIS WILL KEEP 500 MB FLOW
NORTHWESTERLY OVER THE REGION...WITH WEAK VORTICITY MAXIMA MOVING
THROUGH AT TIMES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT...WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION
BRINGING COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR INTO THE AREA.

NAM ONLY MODEL SHOWING QPF MONDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT WITH SHOWERS.
KEPT MONDAY DRY AS OTHER MODELS KEEP DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES
WILL REACH THE LOWER TO MID 70S MONDAY...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE
50S SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

ECMWF/GFS GENERALLY SHOW NORTHWEST FLOW AT 500 MB REMAINING OVER
THE REGION FOR THIS PERIOD...WITH WEAK VORTICITY MAXIMA MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA AT TIMES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SLOWLY
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY AREA. THE MODELS GENERATE QPF DURING EACH AFTERNOON
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW WEAK INSTABILITY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH BETTER MEAN LAYER CAPES IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS
FOR LATER IN THE WEEK. FOR NOW...CONTINUED TO HAVE LOWER END POPS
EACH DAY AND NIGHT FOR MOST OF THIS PERIOD. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
BE SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

LOOK FOR AN AREA OF MVFR CLOUDS THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY FROM
KMSN ON WEST. THESE CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK TROF AND
WARM ADVECTION MOVING THROUGH AND SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE FROM
WEST TO EAST SHORTLY AFTER 12Z THIS MORNING. THEN LOOK FOR VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

THE CHANCES OF SHOWER OR STORMS LOOK VERY SMALL UNTIL WE GET
CLOSER TO THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW DROPPING
IN AROUND 12Z SUNDAY MORNING. SO...GENERALLY A VERY QUIET TAF
PERIOD WITH LIGHT WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...

COULD SEE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS DEVELOP LATER SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY...AS NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE IN THE WAKE OF PASSING
LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DAVIS
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WOOD





000
FXUS63 KMKX 260822
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
322 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

EXPECTING A QUIET...WARM AND HUMID DAY TODAY. WARM ADVECTION WITH
A DEPARTING SHORTWAVE IS BRINGING SOME SHOWERS TO NORTHERN IL
EARLY THIS MORNING AND SOME SPRINKLES ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN WI.
THIS SHOULD MOSTLY BE OUT OF THE AREA BY OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.

MODELS THEN SHOW A WEAK MID LEVEL RIPPLE COMING ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON...ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE IMPRESSIVE
CLOSED SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF SCNTRL CANADA. HOWEVER...THERE
IS A FORMIDABLE DRY LAYER FROM BELOW 850MB THROUGH ABOUT 650MB
THAT WILL MAKE IT HARD TO PRECIPITATE THROUGH.

ADDITIONALLY...THERE IS A RATHER STRONG LOW LEVEL CAP THAT WILL
WORK TO PREVENT ANY DEVELOPMENT. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP IT DRY
TODAY. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP IT DRY TODAY. LOWER CLOUDS AROUND
THIS MORNING...ASSOCIATED WITH THE EXITING SHORT WAVE...SHOULD
GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT WITH SUNSHINE EXPECTED. HIGHS SHOULD EASILY
HIT THE LOWER TO MID 80S.

THE LARGE CANADIAN SYSTEM WILL PUSH INTO NORTHWEST WI BY 12Z SUN
WITH SURFACE TROFING PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA AS WELL. THE COLUMN
STILL LOOKS QUITE DRY OUT AHEAD OF THE UPPER SYSTEM AND WE/LL
PROBABLY HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL SUNDAY FOR BETTER SATURATION AND
INSTABILITY TO BRING PRECIP WITH THE COOLING TEMPS ALOFT. WILL
INTRO A SMALL POP ACROSS THE NORTH AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT FOR THE
SMALL THREAT THERE.

.SHORT TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

MODELS PUSH SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REST
OF THE AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS...WITH A SECONDARY TROUGH
MOVING SOUTH INTO THE AREA BY 00Z MONDAY. STRONG 500 MB SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ALSO SLIDES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY.

AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM SHOWING A GOOD AMOUNT OF
MEAN LAYER CAPE AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR UNTIL AROUND 15Z SUNDAY IN
THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA...WHICH WOULD BRING A HAIL/WIND
RISK. GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW MUCH LESS INSTABILITY IN THE MORNING IN
THIS AREA...SO THINK NAM IS LIKELY OVERDONE WITH THE INSTABILITY.

BOTH MODELS DO BRING SOME RATHER WEAK TALL/SKINNY CAPE TO THE
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. KEPT LIKELY POPS IN THE AFTERNOON IN
MOST OF THE AREA...WITH RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY AND CHANCE OF THUNDER.
KEPT LOWER END POPS IN THE EVENING IN THE EAST...UNTIL COOLER AND
DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION ENDS THE PRECIPITATION. HIGHS
SUNDAY SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...THEN FALL INTO
THE EVENING WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION.

500 MB TROUGH REMAINS OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA AND INTO THE
NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC REGION. THIS WILL KEEP 500 MB FLOW
NORTHWESTERLY OVER THE REGION...WITH WEAK VORTICITY MAXIMA MOVING
THROUGH AT TIMES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT...WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION
BRINGING COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR INTO THE AREA.

NAM ONLY MODEL SHOWING QPF MONDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT WITH SHOWERS.
KEPT MONDAY DRY AS OTHER MODELS KEEP DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES
WILL REACH THE LOWER TO MID 70S MONDAY...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE
50S SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

ECMWF/GFS GENERALLY SHOW NORTHWEST FLOW AT 500 MB REMAINING OVER
THE REGION FOR THIS PERIOD...WITH WEAK VORTICITY MAXIMA MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA AT TIMES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SLOWLY
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY AREA. THE MODELS GENERATE QPF DURING EACH AFTERNOON
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW WEAK INSTABILITY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH BETTER MEAN LAYER CAPES IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS
FOR LATER IN THE WEEK. FOR NOW...CONTINUED TO HAVE LOWER END POPS
EACH DAY AND NIGHT FOR MOST OF THIS PERIOD. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
BE SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

LOOK FOR AN AREA OF MVFR CLOUDS THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY FROM
KMSN ON WEST. THESE CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK TROF AND
WARM ADVECTION MOVING THROUGH AND SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE FROM
WEST TO EAST SHORTLY AFTER 12Z THIS MORNING. THEN LOOK FOR VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

THE CHANCES OF SHOWER OR STORMS LOOK VERY SMALL UNTIL WE GET
CLOSER TO THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW DROPPING
IN AROUND 12Z SUNDAY MORNING. SO...GENERALLY A VERY QUIET TAF
PERIOD WITH LIGHT WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...

COULD SEE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS DEVELOP LATER SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY...AS NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE IN THE WAKE OF PASSING
LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DAVIS
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WOOD




000
FXUS63 KMKX 260220
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
920 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.UPDATE...TEMPERATURES HAVE SLIPPED INTO THE MID 60S IN SOME
EASTERN LOCATIONS...SO TWEEKED A FEW LOCATIONS DOWNWARD OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT CLOUDS TO HANG ON THROUGH THE NIGHT DUE TO WEAK LOW LEVEL
WARM AIR ADVECTION AND UPSTREAM WEAK SHORT WAVE OVER SOUTHERN MN
HEADING THIS WAY. REMOVED LOW POPS FROM THIS EVENING EARLIER. NOT
IMPOSSIBLE A STRAY -SHRA MAY DEVELOP AS SHORT WAVE/TROUGH PASSES
LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ADD
POPS AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...MVFR CIGS MAKING SLOW PROGRESS EWD IN WEAK
LOW LEVEL FLOW. EXPECT STRATUS TO HANG ON INTO SATURDAY MORNING
BEFORE THINNING AS DRIER AIR BEHIND PASSING WEAK TROUGH SETTLES
INTO SRN WI.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 233 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014/

SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN IS CURRENTLY PUSHING OFFSHORE...WITH LATEST
MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGESTING MAINLY DRY WEATHER AFTER THAT. LOW LEVEL
JET AND BEST WARM ADVECTION WILL BE FOCUSED FARTHER SOUTH
TONIGHT...SO HAVE LOWERED POPS QUITE A BIT. LINGERED SOME LOW POPS
INTO THE EVENING...GOING DRY ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

MODELS SHOWING A GOOD AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY TOMORROW...BUT SOUNDINGS
LOOK PRETTY CAPPED THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. TROUGH AXIS WILL BE
EXITING IN THE MORNING...WITH NOT MUCH OF A TRIGGER THROUGH THE REST
OF THE DAY. GIVEN ALL THIS...DECIDED TO KEEP POPS DRY...THOUGH A
STRAY SHOWER OR STORM NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

925 MB TEMPS SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 22-24C RANGE...SO KEPT MID 80S
GOING MOST PLACES...WITH A FEW SPOTS GETTING INTO THE UPPER 80S
GIVEN ENOUGH SUN. DEWPOINTS WILL BE BACK UP INTO THE MID 60S TO
AROUND 70...SO IT WILL BE A STICKY DAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

THE ZONAL FLOW BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AS A MID/UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO DROP SOUTHEAST TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND INTO LOWER MICHIGAN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER
DIVERGENCE AND 700 MB UPWARD MOTION INCREASES SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING UNTIL THE 250 MB TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS LAKE
MICHIGAN SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

NSHARP HAIL PARAMETERS STILL INDICATE A MARGINAL SEVERE POTENTIAL
SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE CAP WEAKENS WITH ELEVATED CAPE AROUND 2500
JOULES/KM WITH 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES AROUND 7.5 CELSIUS/KM.
HOWEVER SOUNDINGS ARE FAIRLY DRY BELOW 12 THSD FT UNTIL SUNRISE
WHEN MOISTURE INCREASES ABOVE A LOW LEVEL INVERSION AROUND 900 MB.

NAM INCREASES PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...WITH THE 00Z
ECMWF PRODUCING AROUND 0.50 INCH AMOUNTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. BY
AFTERNOON THE NAM DECREASES CAPE...AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES. 500 MB TEMPERATURES COOL TO AROUND -15 CELSIUS AND
AROUND 7 CELSIUS AT 850 MB. LAPSE RATES ARE RATHER STEEP BELOW A
750 MB INVERSION. THIS INVERSION SHOULD KEEP ANY SHOWER POTENTIAL
VERY LOW.

BRISK NORTH WINDS CONTINUE NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN AS HIGH PRESSURE
BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS.

LONG TERM...

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE GFS/ECMWF AND DGEX. THE MID/UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES
TO DIG ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS AND UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ALTHOUGH THE COOL AIR ALOFT COULD BRING
DIURNAL SHOWERS...TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

THE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH BECOMES MORE BROAD AND RETROGRADES A
LITTLE TOWARD THE WEST.

THIS BRINGS MORE DIURNAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND CONTINUES THE
RATHER COOL SUMMER TEMPERATURES.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN IS CURRENTLY PUSHING OFFSHORE...WITH LATEST
MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGESTING MAINLY DRY WEATHER AFTER THAT. LINGERED
SOME LOW POPS INTO THE EVENING...GOING DRY ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FOR SATURDAY...THOUGH A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD
GENERALLY IMPROVE BY EVENING...WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THEN
EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.

MARINE...

COULD SEE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS DEVELOP LATER SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY AS NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASE.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MBK





000
FXUS63 KMKX 260220
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
920 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.UPDATE...TEMPERATURES HAVE SLIPPED INTO THE MID 60S IN SOME
EASTERN LOCATIONS...SO TWEEKED A FEW LOCATIONS DOWNWARD OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT CLOUDS TO HANG ON THROUGH THE NIGHT DUE TO WEAK LOW LEVEL
WARM AIR ADVECTION AND UPSTREAM WEAK SHORT WAVE OVER SOUTHERN MN
HEADING THIS WAY. REMOVED LOW POPS FROM THIS EVENING EARLIER. NOT
IMPOSSIBLE A STRAY -SHRA MAY DEVELOP AS SHORT WAVE/TROUGH PASSES
LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ADD
POPS AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...MVFR CIGS MAKING SLOW PROGRESS EWD IN WEAK
LOW LEVEL FLOW. EXPECT STRATUS TO HANG ON INTO SATURDAY MORNING
BEFORE THINNING AS DRIER AIR BEHIND PASSING WEAK TROUGH SETTLES
INTO SRN WI.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 233 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014/

SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN IS CURRENTLY PUSHING OFFSHORE...WITH LATEST
MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGESTING MAINLY DRY WEATHER AFTER THAT. LOW LEVEL
JET AND BEST WARM ADVECTION WILL BE FOCUSED FARTHER SOUTH
TONIGHT...SO HAVE LOWERED POPS QUITE A BIT. LINGERED SOME LOW POPS
INTO THE EVENING...GOING DRY ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

MODELS SHOWING A GOOD AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY TOMORROW...BUT SOUNDINGS
LOOK PRETTY CAPPED THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. TROUGH AXIS WILL BE
EXITING IN THE MORNING...WITH NOT MUCH OF A TRIGGER THROUGH THE REST
OF THE DAY. GIVEN ALL THIS...DECIDED TO KEEP POPS DRY...THOUGH A
STRAY SHOWER OR STORM NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

925 MB TEMPS SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 22-24C RANGE...SO KEPT MID 80S
GOING MOST PLACES...WITH A FEW SPOTS GETTING INTO THE UPPER 80S
GIVEN ENOUGH SUN. DEWPOINTS WILL BE BACK UP INTO THE MID 60S TO
AROUND 70...SO IT WILL BE A STICKY DAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

THE ZONAL FLOW BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AS A MID/UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO DROP SOUTHEAST TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND INTO LOWER MICHIGAN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER
DIVERGENCE AND 700 MB UPWARD MOTION INCREASES SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING UNTIL THE 250 MB TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS LAKE
MICHIGAN SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

NSHARP HAIL PARAMETERS STILL INDICATE A MARGINAL SEVERE POTENTIAL
SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE CAP WEAKENS WITH ELEVATED CAPE AROUND 2500
JOULES/KM WITH 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES AROUND 7.5 CELSIUS/KM.
HOWEVER SOUNDINGS ARE FAIRLY DRY BELOW 12 THSD FT UNTIL SUNRISE
WHEN MOISTURE INCREASES ABOVE A LOW LEVEL INVERSION AROUND 900 MB.

NAM INCREASES PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...WITH THE 00Z
ECMWF PRODUCING AROUND 0.50 INCH AMOUNTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. BY
AFTERNOON THE NAM DECREASES CAPE...AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES. 500 MB TEMPERATURES COOL TO AROUND -15 CELSIUS AND
AROUND 7 CELSIUS AT 850 MB. LAPSE RATES ARE RATHER STEEP BELOW A
750 MB INVERSION. THIS INVERSION SHOULD KEEP ANY SHOWER POTENTIAL
VERY LOW.

BRISK NORTH WINDS CONTINUE NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN AS HIGH PRESSURE
BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS.

LONG TERM...

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE GFS/ECMWF AND DGEX. THE MID/UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES
TO DIG ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS AND UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ALTHOUGH THE COOL AIR ALOFT COULD BRING
DIURNAL SHOWERS...TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

THE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH BECOMES MORE BROAD AND RETROGRADES A
LITTLE TOWARD THE WEST.

THIS BRINGS MORE DIURNAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND CONTINUES THE
RATHER COOL SUMMER TEMPERATURES.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN IS CURRENTLY PUSHING OFFSHORE...WITH LATEST
MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGESTING MAINLY DRY WEATHER AFTER THAT. LINGERED
SOME LOW POPS INTO THE EVENING...GOING DRY ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FOR SATURDAY...THOUGH A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD
GENERALLY IMPROVE BY EVENING...WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THEN
EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.

MARINE...

COULD SEE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS DEVELOP LATER SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY AS NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASE.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MBK




000
FXUS63 KMKX 251933
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
233 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...

.TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN IS CURRENTLY PUSHING OFFSHORE...WITH LATEST
MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGESTING MAINLY DRY WEATHER AFTER THAT. LOW LEVEL
JET AND BEST WARM ADVECTION WILL BE FOCUSED FARTHER SOUTH
TONIGHT...SO HAVE LOWERED POPS QUITE A BIT. LINGERED SOME LOW POPS
INTO THE EVENING...GOING DRY ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

MODELS SHOWING A GOOD AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY TOMORROW...BUT SOUNDINGS
LOOK PRETTY CAPPED THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. TROUGH AXIS WILL BE
EXITING IN THE MORNING...WITH NOT MUCH OF A TRIGGER THROUGH THE REST
OF THE DAY. GIVEN ALL THIS...DECIDED TO KEEP POPS DRY...THOUGH A
STRAY SHOWER OR STORM NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

925 MB TEMPS SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 22-24C RANGE...SO KEPT MID 80S
GOING MOST PLACES...WITH A FEW SPOTS GETTING INTO THE UPPER 80S
GIVEN ENOUGH SUN. DEWPOINTS WILL BE BACK UP INTO THE MID 60S TO
AROUND 70...SO IT WILL BE A STICKY DAY.

.SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

THE ZONAL FLOW BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AS A MID/UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO DROP SOUTHEAST TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND INTO LOWER MICHIGAN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER
DIVERGENCE AND 700 MB UPWARD MOTION INCREASES SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING UNTIL THE 250 MB TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS LAKE
MICHIGAN SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

NSHARP HAIL PARAMETERS STILL INDICATE A MARGINAL SEVERE POTENTIAL
SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE CAP WEAKENS WITH ELEVATED CAPE AROUND 2500
JOULES/KM WITH 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES AROUND 7.5 CELSIUS/KM.
HOWEVER SOUNDINGS ARE FAIRLY DRY BELOW 12 THSD FT UNTIL SUNRISE
WHEN MOISTURE INCREASES ABOVE A LOW LEVEL INVERSION AROUND 900 MB.

NAM INCREASES PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...WITH THE 00Z
ECMWF PRODUCING AROUND 0.50 INCH AMOUNTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. BY
AFTERNOON THE NAM DECREASES CAPE...AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS.

.SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES. 500 MB TEMPERATURES COOL TO AROUND -15 CELSIUS AND
AROUND 7 CELSIUS AT 850 MB. LAPSE RATES ARE RATHER STEEP BELOW A
750 MB INVERSION. THIS INVERSION SHOULD KEEP ANY SHOWER POTENTIAL
VERY LOW.

BRISK NORTH WINDS CONTINUE NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN AS HIGH PRESSURE
BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE GFS/ECMWF AND DGEX. THE MID/UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES
TO DIG ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS AND UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ALTHOUGH THE COOL AIR ALOFT COULD BRING
DIURNAL SHOWERS...TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

.THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

THE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH BECOMES MORE BROAD AND RETROGRADES A
LITTLE TOWARD THE WEST.

THIS BRINGS MORE DIURNAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND CONTINUES THE
RATHER COOL SUMMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN IS CURRENTLY PUSHING OFFSHORE...WITH LATEST
MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGESTING MAINLY DRY WEATHER AFTER THAT. LINGERED
SOME LOW POPS INTO THE EVENING...GOING DRY ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FOR SATURDAY...THOUGH A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD
GENERALLY IMPROVE BY EVENING...WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THEN
EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

COULD SEE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS DEVELOP LATER SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY AS NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASE.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TONIGHT/SATURDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...DDV
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HENTZ




000
FXUS63 KMKX 251933
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
233 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...

.TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN IS CURRENTLY PUSHING OFFSHORE...WITH LATEST
MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGESTING MAINLY DRY WEATHER AFTER THAT. LOW LEVEL
JET AND BEST WARM ADVECTION WILL BE FOCUSED FARTHER SOUTH
TONIGHT...SO HAVE LOWERED POPS QUITE A BIT. LINGERED SOME LOW POPS
INTO THE EVENING...GOING DRY ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

MODELS SHOWING A GOOD AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY TOMORROW...BUT SOUNDINGS
LOOK PRETTY CAPPED THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. TROUGH AXIS WILL BE
EXITING IN THE MORNING...WITH NOT MUCH OF A TRIGGER THROUGH THE REST
OF THE DAY. GIVEN ALL THIS...DECIDED TO KEEP POPS DRY...THOUGH A
STRAY SHOWER OR STORM NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

925 MB TEMPS SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 22-24C RANGE...SO KEPT MID 80S
GOING MOST PLACES...WITH A FEW SPOTS GETTING INTO THE UPPER 80S
GIVEN ENOUGH SUN. DEWPOINTS WILL BE BACK UP INTO THE MID 60S TO
AROUND 70...SO IT WILL BE A STICKY DAY.

.SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

THE ZONAL FLOW BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AS A MID/UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO DROP SOUTHEAST TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND INTO LOWER MICHIGAN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER
DIVERGENCE AND 700 MB UPWARD MOTION INCREASES SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING UNTIL THE 250 MB TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS LAKE
MICHIGAN SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

NSHARP HAIL PARAMETERS STILL INDICATE A MARGINAL SEVERE POTENTIAL
SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE CAP WEAKENS WITH ELEVATED CAPE AROUND 2500
JOULES/KM WITH 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES AROUND 7.5 CELSIUS/KM.
HOWEVER SOUNDINGS ARE FAIRLY DRY BELOW 12 THSD FT UNTIL SUNRISE
WHEN MOISTURE INCREASES ABOVE A LOW LEVEL INVERSION AROUND 900 MB.

NAM INCREASES PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...WITH THE 00Z
ECMWF PRODUCING AROUND 0.50 INCH AMOUNTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. BY
AFTERNOON THE NAM DECREASES CAPE...AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS.

.SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES. 500 MB TEMPERATURES COOL TO AROUND -15 CELSIUS AND
AROUND 7 CELSIUS AT 850 MB. LAPSE RATES ARE RATHER STEEP BELOW A
750 MB INVERSION. THIS INVERSION SHOULD KEEP ANY SHOWER POTENTIAL
VERY LOW.

BRISK NORTH WINDS CONTINUE NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN AS HIGH PRESSURE
BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE GFS/ECMWF AND DGEX. THE MID/UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES
TO DIG ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS AND UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ALTHOUGH THE COOL AIR ALOFT COULD BRING
DIURNAL SHOWERS...TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

.THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

THE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH BECOMES MORE BROAD AND RETROGRADES A
LITTLE TOWARD THE WEST.

THIS BRINGS MORE DIURNAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND CONTINUES THE
RATHER COOL SUMMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN IS CURRENTLY PUSHING OFFSHORE...WITH LATEST
MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGESTING MAINLY DRY WEATHER AFTER THAT. LINGERED
SOME LOW POPS INTO THE EVENING...GOING DRY ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FOR SATURDAY...THOUGH A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD
GENERALLY IMPROVE BY EVENING...WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THEN
EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

COULD SEE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS DEVELOP LATER SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY AS NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASE.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TONIGHT/SATURDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...DDV
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HENTZ





000
FXUS63 KMKX 251511 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1011 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.UPDATE...

CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY AS WARM ADVECTION LINGERS ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. BEST
CHANCE LOOKS TO BE FROM LATE THIS MORNING UNTIL AROUND 4 PM OR SO
GIVEN LATEST RAP AND HRRR. MIGHT HAVE TO LOWER AFTERNOON HIGHS A
BIT GIVEN EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY AS WARM ADVECTION LINGERS ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. BEST
CHANCE LOOKS TO BE FROM LATE THIS MORNING UNTIL AROUND 4 PM OR SO
GIVEN LATEST RAP AND HRRR. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL
PERSIST INTO TONIGHT AS THE TROUGH AXIS AND SFC FRONT APPROACH.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY...THROUGH
UPSTREAM OBS AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MVFR
CIGS AT TIMES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 558 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014/

UPDATE...

CHANGED WORDING IN FORECAST TO ISOLATED/SCATTERED AS OBS UNDER UPSTREAM
RETURNS APPROACHING PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL WI ARE REPORTING
SPRINKLES/LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH TRACE AMOUNTS. A FEW GROUND
STROKES WEST OF MADISON SO ISOLATED/SCT THUNDERSTORMS THERE.

ALSO EXPANDED POPS FOR LATER THIS MORNING AS LINE OF CONVECTION
MOVING INTO WEST CENTRAL WI TRACKING MORE WITH THE 850-300 MB MEAN
WIND ALMOST DUE EAST VERSUS THE ANTICIPATED SOUTH-SOUTHEAST PER
CORFIDI VECTORS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

POCKETS OF CONVECTION EXTENDING FROM NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND
SW MN INTO ERN NEBRASKA DEVELOPING ALONG LEADING EDGE OF SFC TO
850 MB MOISTURE PLUME IN REGION OF DEEP MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND
THETA-E ADVECTION AHEAD OF 850 MB LOW/SFC LOW WITH MOST UNSTABLE
CAPE OF 1000 J/KG OR HIGHER.

THESE POCKETS OF CONVECTION ARE SETTING UP TO THE SW AND WEST OF
STRONG 850 MB FRONTOGENETIC RESPONSE TO THE LOW LEVEL JET
IMPINGING ON 850 MB BAROCLINIC ZONE STRETCHING ACROSS W CENTRAL TO
SOUTH CENTRAL MN INTO NE IOWA.

HI RES/RAPID UPDATE MODELS CATCHING ON TO LACK OF MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY OVER WI AND KEEPING PCPN OUT OF CWA UNTIL AFTER
12Z...WITH A FEW ACCAS SPRINKLES POSSIBLE BEFORE THEN.

MODELS AGREE THAT AREAL COVERAGE AND AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION WILL
DIMINISH AS WEAKENING FORCING AND OMEGA PUSHES ACROSS STATE WITH
DIURNALLY WEAKENING LLJ THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP
POPS IN CHANCE/SCATTERED CATEGORY AND MAINLY SHOWERS WITH ONLY A
SLGT CHANCE OF THUNDER DUE TO CAPPING AND MARGINAL MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES.

LOOKING FOR A BREAK IN THE PCPN MID AFTERNOON...THEN REDEVELOPING
AS LOW LEVEL JET BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. CAP AT 700 MB ERODES EARLY TO MID EVENING...BUT STILL
SOME QUESTION TO AMOUNT OF SURFACE BASED CAPE. HOWEVER DECENT
ELEVATED CAPE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. 0 TO 6KM SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR
SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS...AND WITH STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...SOME HAIL NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THOUGH PROBABILITY FOR
SEVERE HAIL IS LOW. PW/S REACH NEAR 2 INCHES BY 06Z SO HEAVY
DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE... ESPECIALLY IN THE FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST.

SHORT TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS MEDIUM.

MODELS SHOWING QPF ASSOCIATED WITH MAIN PUSH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION
MOVING OFF TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY. AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOWING CAPPED AIRMASS OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...WITH NOT MUCH
FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION SEEN. THUS...KEPT SATURDAY DRY
ACROSS THE AREA. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...WITH
HIGHS REACHING THE MID 80S IN MOST AREAS PER 925 MB TEMPERATURE
FIELDS.

KEPT LOW POPS IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH
APPROACH OF 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH. HOWEVER...THIS WILL STILL
HAVE TO CONTEND WITH FAIRLY STRONG CAP OVER THE AREA. SO...MOST OF
THE NIGHT MAY REMAIN DRY IN THIS AREA.

MODELS THEN BRING COLD FRONT SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH TRAILING 500 MB SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. AREA
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO MIX OUT CAP DURING THE DAY...THOUGH IT MAY
BE AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

KEPT LIKELY POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS MOST OF SUNDAY...THOUGH BEST
CHANCES WILL BE IN THE MORNING BEFORE FRONTAL PASSAGE. SOME
QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH MEAN LAYER CAPE WILL EXIST BEFORE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. THIS WILL DETERMINE IF THERE WILL BE A HAIL
RISK...GIVEN THE STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR.

COLD AIR ADVECTION SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BRING IN COOLER AND LESS
HUMID AIR...AND END THE POPS DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

GFS/ECMWF SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE SLIDE SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION MONDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. 500 MB TROUGH REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE NORTHEAST AND
MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES...WITH NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION.

VARIOUS 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMA MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THIS
TIME. ENOUGH MOISTURE LINGERS TO CARRY LOWER END POPS FOR MOST OF
THIS PERIOD. CONTINUED POPS THROUGH THURSDAY USING CONSENSUS
POPS...AS OVERALL PATTERN LINGERS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE PLEASANT
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

AGAIN WATCHING CURRENT ACCAS SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO TIMING INTO TAF SITES. STILL LOOKS LIKE KMSN AND
POINTS WEST HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WITH VERY BRIEF MVFR VSBYS THIS MORNING...WITH ONLY AN ISOLATED
LIGHT VFR SHOWER/SPRINKLES AT EASTERN TAF SITES. BETTER CHANCE
FOR THUNDER COMES LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING TO ALL SITES. WILL
TRY TO HONE IN ON MOST LIKELY TIMES AT EACH SITE...BUT EVEN VARIED
SHORT-TERM MODEL DIFFERENCES HANDLING CURRENT PCPN...AS WELL AS
TIMING/AMOUNTS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. WILL CARRY PREVAILING VFR
WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH THUNDER.

MARINE...

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS REMAIN LOW ENOUGH TO NOT CAUSE ANY
WIND/WAVE ISSUES INTO SUNDAY EVENING. LOOKING AT THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES INCREASING LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...AND AGAIN ON
SUNDAY.

NORTH WINDS TO INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BRINGING
WINDS/WAVES TOWARD SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS...AS WELL AS A
BEACH HAZARD POTENTIAL ON MONDAY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DDV
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...REM
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WOOD





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