000
FXUS63 KMKX 242025
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
315 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.VERY SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST OF THE
AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. MODELS ARE TRYING TO BRING THE 850MB
FOCUSED WARM AIR ADVECTION NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA THIS EVENING...THEN IS SHUNTED FURTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST
LATER TONIGHT. THIS AREA THEN GRADUALLY PUSHES BACK TOWARD THE
SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA SATURDAY.
850MB LOW LEVEL JET NOSE FOCUSES WEST OF THE AREA TONIGHT...BEFORE
POINTING MORE INTO CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST IOWA SATURDAY. SOME
DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THESE 850MB
FEATURES...AND SUBSEQUENT QPF. ECMWF MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH QPF ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH THE OTHERS MAINLY DRY.
THE NAM IS MOST AGGRESSIVE SATURDAY IN A SIMILAR AREA...WITH THE
OTHER MODELS MAINLY DRY.
GIVEN THE DRY AIR LINGERING IN THE LOW LEVELS WITH THE HIGH TO THE
EAST...WILL LIMIT POPS TO MAINLY THE SOUTH CENTRAL COUNTIES LATER
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. SHOULD SEE BROKEN TO OVERCAST MID LEVEL CLOUDS
SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THESE
SHOULD LIMIT LOWS TONIGHT AND LIMIT HIGHS ON SATURDAY.
.SHORT TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
12Z NAM APPEARS TO BE OUTLIER WITH REGARDS TO MORE NORTHERN
PLACEMENT OF WARM FRONT AND MESO-SCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM OVER
CENTRAL WI SUN NGT AS BAROCLINIC ZONE AND ENHANCED LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE LIKELY TO BE FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST. NEVER THE
LESS...WL CONTINUE TO KEEP SMALL POPS SOUTH AND WEST OF MADISON SAT
NGT AND SUN DUE TO NEARBY BAROCLINIC ZONE. BETTER THREAT FOR
CONVECTION SUN NGT INTO MONDAY AS NORTHERN EXTENT OF BAROCLINIC
ZONES SHIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE VICINITY ALONG WITH PIECES OF
UPSTREAM MCS-INDUCED VORTICITY MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN WI.
PERSISTENT SOUTHEAST SFC WINDS AND PLENTY OF CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPS
IN CHECK FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
SHARPENING UPSTREAM LONG WAVE TROFFING OVER WRN CONUS IS EXPECTED
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS VIGOROUS PIECE OF ENERGY SLIDES INTO BASE OF
TROUGH. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING SOUTHERLY MID LEVEL WINDS
WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS SHIFTING NORTHWARD. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT HOWEVER DIFFERENCES OF TIMING OF WARM FRONT PROGRESSION
DUE TO AMOUNT AND AREAL EXTENT OF CONVECTION FIRING ALONG AND NORTH
OF FRONT IN BAROCLINIC ZONE. BY 00Z/WED...GEM AND GFS HAS PUSHED
WMFNT INTO NRN WI WHILE ECMWF HAS FRONT STILL SUPPRESSED TO THE
SOUTH. BEST CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ALONG AND AHEAD
OF NORTHWARD MOVING WMFNT DURING THIS PERIOD...HENCE HIGHEST CHANCE
POPS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
NEARBY CONVECTION VCNTY OF WMFNT COULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF SRN WI
LATER PERIODS...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT...AS CAPPING INVERSION SHOULD
PREVENT MOST DAYTIME ACTIVITY. MORE SUMMER-LIKE TEMPS AND HUMIDITY
SHOULD SETTLE IN DURING THIS PERIOD AS WELL. LATER SHIFTS MAY BE
NUDING MAX TEMPS FURTHER INTO THE 80S.
THREAT FOR STRONGER CONVECTION LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE FIRST DAYS OF
JUNE AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS/...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY ACROSS TAF SITES. ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN SOUTHWEST
OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS PERIOD...AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SHIFTS TO
THE EAST. SHOULD SEE BROKEN TO OVERCAST MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHIFT
SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND LINGER INTO SATURDAY.
NORTHEAST WINDS AT THE EASTERN TAF SITES LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL
WEAKEN AND SHIFT SOUTHEAST TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. LIGHT WINDS WILL
BECOME SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AT MADISON.
&&
.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HIGH WAVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO
NEARSHORE MARINE ZONES HAS BEEN CANCELLED. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING...AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES EAST. THIS HAS ALLOWED ANY
REMAINING HIGH WAVES TO SUBSIDE TO UNDER 4 FEET.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
.CONFIDENCE...
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...MEDIUM TO HIGH.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MEDIUM.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MEDIUM.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...LOW TO MEDIUM.
$$
VERY SHORT TERM AND AVIATION/MARINE...WOOD
SHORT TERM/LONG TERM...MBK
000
FXUS63 KMKX 241655 AAA
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1155 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.UPDATE...VERY FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST. DEW POINTS WERE
UPDATED AND LOWERED TO ACCOUNT FOR FURTHER MIXING TODAY. OTHERWISE
A QUIET...SUNNY AND COOL DAY IS IN STORE. 925 HPA TEMPS ARE AROUND
10/11 DEGREES CELSIUS WEST TO 7 DEGREES CELSIUS EAST...WHICH WILL
BE CONDUCIVE FOR HIGHS TO REACH AROUND 63 F WEST TO 56 F EAST.
THIS THINKING MATCHES THE INHERITED FORECAST WELL...ESPECIALLY
WITH AMPLE INSOLATION TODAY AND ADEQUATE MIXING. TEMPS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO BE COOLER NEAR THE LAKE SHORE WITH ONSHORE
FLOW...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. ACROSS THE CWA...HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE 8 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW THEIR SEASONAL
NORMAL VALUES.
&&
.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY ACROSS TAF SITES. ANY
PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SHIFTS TO THE EAST. SHOULD SEE
MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHIFT SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND
LINGER INTO SATURDAY. NORTHEAST WINDS AT THE EASTERN TAF SITES
THIS AFTERNOON WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT SOUTHEAST TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
AT MADISON.
&&
.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED UNTIL 21Z FOR THE
SOUTHERN TWO NEARSHORE MARINE ZONES...AS NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE
TO GENERATE WAVES OF 3 TO 5 FEET. THE REST OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS
WILL SEE WAVES BELOW 4 FEET. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL WEAKEN AND
BECOME EASTERLY BY EVENING...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE EAST.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST TO LOWER
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S PERCENT
RANGE ACROSS THE AREA. DAYTIME HEATING AND LIGHT WINDS AWAY FROM
THE LAKE WILL ALLOW FOR DEW POINTS TO MIX OUT AND SUBSEQUENT
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO LOWER. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AWAY
FROM THE LAKE...WITH NORTHEAST WINDS NEAR IT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013/
SHORT TERM...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH
POLAR HIGH PRESSURE AND FULL SUNSHINE WILL PREVAIL TODAY. 925 MB
TEMPS AROUND 10C ON THE ECMWF YIELDS HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 60S
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WI. A COOL LAKE BREEZE WILL KEEP ERN WI IN THE
50S. THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EWD TNT WITH THE UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE PLAINS SLOWLY APPROACHING. WARM...MOIST ADVECTION OVER THE
PLAINS TO JUST WEST OF THE MS RIVER WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS AND
TSTORMS OVER THAT REGION LATER TODAY AND TNT. SRN WI WILL BE ON THE
NE PERIPHERY OF THE WARM ADVECTION...VIA MOST MODELS WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE AGGRESSIVE NAM. MORE SPECIFICALLY...THE 700 MB WARM
ADVECTION AND MOISTURE DOES MOVE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL WI LATE TNT WITH
VERY DRY AIR BELOW. MINOR ELEVATED CAPE IS NOTED ON THE FCST
SOUNDINGS SO PCPN COULD MAKE IT TO THE SURFACE. KEPT CHANCE POPS IN
THE FAR WRN CWA WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE REMAINDER OF SOUTH
CENTRAL WI. DO NOT EXPECT ANY FROST TNT AS HIGH CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY
OVERSPREAD THE AREA BY LATE EVENING OR JUST BEYOND MIDNIGHT.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM
A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL
U.S. OVER THE WEEKEND. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL RIDE ACROSS THIS
RIDGE WHICH WILL PRODUCE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST. THEIR FOCUS AND TRACK WILL BE ALONG THE 850MB
BAROCLINIC ZONE...WHICH WILL LINE UP FROM SOUTHERN MN TO EASTERN IA
TO NORTHERN IL AND MAY CLIP SOUTHWEST WI. THIS WILL MEAN SOUTHERN WI
WILL BE STUCK WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS...COOL TEMPERATURES AND
LOTS OF CLOUDS FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
THE ECMWF HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY DRIER OVER THE MKX FORECAST AREA FOR
THE WEEKEND. THUS...TRENDED TOWARD THE DRIER SOLUTION VS. THE VERY
WET NAM WHICH SEEMS TO BE OVERDOING THE 850-700MB WARM AIR
ADVECTION. BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WI...SW OF A LINE FROM THE DELLS TO MADISON TO
JANESVILLE. BEST TIME FOR THIS PRECIP WOULD BE WITH AN MCS OVER MN
DRIFTING SOUTHEAST AND CLIPPING SOME OF OUR AREA SATURDAY
MORNING...THEN AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
MEMORIAL DAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
THIS WILL BE THE WARMEST OF THE THREE DAYS WITH HIGHS EXPECTED IN
THE UPPER 60S...BUT IT ALSO HAS THE BEST CHANCE FOR A PERIOD OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER. THERE WILL BE A STRONG SHORTWAVE
APPROACHING SOUTHERN WI AS WELL AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
UPPER JET OVERHEAD. THIS IS ALSO THE TIME WHEN THE 850MB WARM FRONT
WILL BE NUDGING INTO THE AREA.
LONG TERM...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS WISCONSIN...ALTHOUGH TIMING OF IT
GETTING NORTH OF THE MKX AREA IS UNCERTAIN. THE GFS MOVES IT INTO
NORTHERN WI ALREADY TUESDAY...WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF IS SLOWER AND
DELAYS IT UNTIL WED MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A GOOD DEAL
OF SURFACE AND ELEVATED CAPE WHILE THE WARM FRONT MOVES OVER THE
REGION. WITH DECENT SHEAR...CANNOT RULE OUT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
THE TIME OF DAY THESE MOVE ACROSS...WHICH IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME...
WILL HELP DETERMINE THE RISK OF SEVERE AS WELL. STAY TUNED.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
SUMMER WILL ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. DRAWS WARM AIR INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN WILL BE INFLUENCED BY THE UPPER RIDGE AND PROBABLY REMAIN
SUNNY FOR THE MAJORITY OF THIS TIME PERIOD. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
ALLOW LAKESHORE AREAS TO ENJOY HIGHS IN THE 80S AS WELL.
AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...POLAR HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN VFR
CONDITIONS TODAY AND TNT. HOWEVER...MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL
BRING SLIGHT CHANCES OF A SHOWER FOR KMSN AROUND SUNRISE ON SAT BUT
CLOUD BASES WILL ONLY FALL TO 8-10.0 KFT. NO VSBY RESTRICTIONS WITH
THE LIGHT SHOWERS IF THEY DO OCCUR.
MARINE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL MID MORNING.
HIGH WAVES WILL LINGER DUE TO THE OVERNIGHT BRISK NLY WINDS.
OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER WI AND LAKE MI TODAY AND
TNT. MUCH LIGHTER WINDS AND WAVES ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS MORNING.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ645-
646.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WOOD
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...GEHRING
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MRC
000
FXUS63 KMKX 240835
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
335 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SHORT TERM...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH
POLAR HIGH PRESSURE AND FULL SUNSHINE WILL PREVAIL TODAY. 925 MB
TEMPS AROUND 10C ON THE ECMWF YIELDS HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 60S
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WI. A COOL LAKE BREEZE WILL KEEP ERN WI IN THE
50S. THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EWD TNT WITH THE UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE PLAINS SLOWLY APPROACHING. WARM...MOIST ADVECTION OVER THE
PLAINS TO JUST WEST OF THE MS RIVER WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS AND
TSTORMS OVER THAT REGION LATER TODAY AND TNT. SRN WI WILL BE ON THE
NE PERIPHERY OF THE WARM ADVECTION...VIA MOST MODELS WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE AGGRESSIVE NAM. MORE SPECIFICALLY...THE 700 MB WARM
ADVECTION AND MOISTURE DOES MOVE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL WI LATE TNT WITH
VERY DRY AIR BELOW. MINOR ELEVATED CAPE IS NOTED ON THE FCST
SOUNDINGS SO PCPN COULD MAKE IT TO THE SURFACE. KEPT CHANCE POPS IN
THE FAR WRN CWA WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE REMAINDER OF SOUTH
CENTRAL WI. DO NOT EXPECT ANY FROST TNT AS HIGH CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY
OVERSPREAD THE AREA BY LATE EVENING OR JUST BEYOND MIDNIGHT.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM
A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL
U.S. OVER THE WEEKEND. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL RIDE ACROSS THIS
RIDGE WHICH WILL PRODUCE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST. THEIR FOCUS AND TRACK WILL BE ALONG THE 850MB
BAROCLINIC ZONE...WHICH WILL LINE UP FROM SOUTHERN MN TO EASTERN IA
TO NORTHERN IL AND MAY CLIP SOUTHWEST WI. THIS WILL MEAN SOUTHERN WI
WILL BE STUCK WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS...COOL TEMPERATURES AND
LOTS OF CLOUDS FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
THE ECMWF HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY DRIER OVER THE MKX FORECAST AREA FOR
THE WEEKEND. THUS...TRENDED TOWARD THE DRIER SOLUTION VS. THE VERY
WET NAM WHICH SEEMS TO BE OVERDOING THE 850-700MB WARM AIR
ADVECTION. BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WI...SW OF A LINE FROM THE DELLS TO MADISON TO
JANESVILLE. BEST TIME FOR THIS PRECIP WOULD BE WITH AN MCS OVER MN
DRIFTING SOUTHEAST AND CLIPPING SOME OF OUR AREA SATURDAY
MORNING...THEN AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
MEMORIAL DAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
THIS WILL BE THE WARMEST OF THE THREE DAYS WITH HIGHS EXPECTED IN
THE UPPER 60S...BUT IT ALSO HAS THE BEST CHANCE FOR A PERIOD OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER. THERE WILL BE A STRONG SHORTWAVE
APPROACHING SOUTHERN WI AS WELL AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
UPPER JET OVERHEAD. THIS IS ALSO THE TIME WHEN THE 850MB WARM FRONT
WILL BE NUDGING INTO THE AREA.
.LONG TERM...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS WISCONSIN...ALTHOUGH TIMING OF IT
GETTING NORTH OF THE MKX AREA IS UNCERTAIN. THE GFS MOVES IT INTO
NORTHERN WI ALREADY TUESDAY...WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF IS SLOWER AND
DELAYS IT UNTIL WED MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A GOOD DEAL
OF SURFACE AND ELEVATED CAPE WHILE THE WARM FRONT MOVES OVER THE
REGION. WITH DECENT SHEAR...CANNOT RULE OUT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
THE TIME OF DAY THESE MOVE ACROSS...WHICH IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME...
WILL HELP DETERMINE THE RISK OF SEVERE AS WELL. STAY TUNED.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
SUMMER WILL ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. DRAWS WARM AIR INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN WILL BE INFLUENCED BY THE UPPER RIDGE AND PROBABLY REMAIN
SUNNY FOR THE MAJORITY OF THIS TIME PERIOD. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
ALLOW LAKESHORE AREAS TO ENJOY HIGHS IN THE 80S AS WELL.
&&
.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...POLAR HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN VFR
CONDITIONS TODAY AND TNT. HOWEVER...MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL
BRING SLIGHT CHANCES OF A SHOWER FOR KMSN AROUND SUNRISE ON SAT BUT
CLOUD BASES WILL ONLY FALL TO 8-10.0 KFT. NO VSBY RESTRICTIONS WITH
THE LIGHT SHOWERS IF THEY DO OCCUR.
&&
.MARINE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL MID MORNING.
HIGH WAVES WILL LINGER DUE TO THE OVERNIGHT BRISK NLY WINDS.
OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER WI AND LAKE MI TODAY AND
TNT. MUCH LIGHTER WINDS AND WAVES ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS MORNING.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ046-047-051-
052-058>060-064-065-070.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR LMZ644>646.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR LMZ643.
&&
$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...GEHRING
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MRC
000
FXUS63 KMKX 240240
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
940 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.UPDATE...
WITH THE LAKE BREEZE...TEMPERATURES COOLED WELL INLAND AND WINDS
WILL DECOUPLE WEST OF THE KETTLE MORAINE. NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD
STAY UP TO PREVENT FROST IN THE MILWAUKEE TO KENOSHA METRO AREAS.
HOWEVER THIS IS NOT LIKE FALL WITH A WARM LAKE...SO THE LIGHT
NORTHEAST WINDS INLAND WILL GIVE MUCH PROTECTION. MODIS LAKE
MICHIGAN SURFACE TEMPERATURE IS AROUND 41.
TEMPERATURES ALREADY AROUND 40 IN THE KETTLE MORAINE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...
EXPECT CLEAR SKIES. SOME PATCHY IFR/LIFR GROUND FOG POSSIBLE DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MAINLY IN RIVER VALLEYS AND LOW AREAS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/
VERY SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
POLAR HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL TRAVERSE TO WRN WI BY 12Z
FRIDAY. MOS GUIDANCE AND 2 METER TEMPS SUGGEST LOW TEMPS WILL BE MID
TO UPPER 30S WITH ONLY PATCHY FROST EXPECTED. GOING FORECAST LOOKS
GOOD WITH NO FROST ADVISORY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND LIGHTER
WINDS. 925 TEMPS PLAY OUT WITH 7C IN THE EAST AND AROUND 10C IN THE
WEST. GOING WITH MID 50S LAKESIDE AND MID 60S AT INLAND LOCALES.
SHORT TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
LINGERING RIDGE WL RESULT IN CLEARING SKIES FOR A PERIOD FRIDAY
NIGHT ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS. THESE CONDITIONS WL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL OFF QUICKLY BEFORE HIGH CLOUDS THICKEN FROM
UPSTREAM WARM AIR ADVECTION. AS LAND BREEZE DEVELOPS...COOLER
TEMPERATURES WL DEVELOP OVER INLAND PORTIONS OF LAKESHORE
COUNTIES...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME MID-UPPER 30S. MORE CLOUDINESS IN
WESTERN CWA SHOULD PRECLUDE COOLER TEMPS. WL ADD PATCHY FROST
MENTION TO INLAND EASTERN AREA FOR LATER FRI NIGHT.
SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SHOWING A LITTLE MORE RIDGING PERSISTING OVER
SRN WI FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. UPSTREAM LOW LEVEL JET FOCUSES
ON SRN MN/NRN IA FRI NGT AND PIVOTS NORTHEAST INTO NORTHEAST IA LATE
IN THE NIGHT. DESPITE LOW LEVELS REMAINING DRY...WESTERN CWA MAY
GET CLIPPED BY MCS THAT WL BE MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH SAT MRNG.
BAROCLINIC ZONE THEN LINGERS OVER THE TRI-STATE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY.
LOW LEVEL DRY AIR FEED FROM THE EAST AND NEARBY RIDGING SHOULD
CONTRIBUTE TO EASTERN AREAS REMAINING DRY FOR MOST OF THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. WEAK RIPPLES MOVING THROUGH EXPANDING RIDGE WL THREATEN
WESTERN AREAS WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH THE BEST CHANCE LATE AT NIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING.
LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
DIFFERENCES PERSIST THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD BETWEEN THE GFS AND
OTHER MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE. GFS REMAINS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH
PIECES OF ENERGY BEING EJECTED FROM DEEPENING UPSTREAM TROFING OVER
WRN CONUS. GFS ALSO HAD BEEN MORE PROGRESSIVE IN WEAKENING DEEP LOW
PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST CONUS BUT WITH 12Z RUN...HAS COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH SLOWER ECMWF. HENCE WL BE LEANING TOWARD DRIER
AND ULTIMATELY WARMER SCENARIO /ECMWF/ FOR MOST OF THIS PERIOD.
WITH THIS SOLUTION...MORE AMPLIFIED HIGH PRESSURE AFFECTS MORE OF
WRN GTLAKES EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND AGAIN WED INTO THU.
BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE TUE INTO WED WHEN
PUSH OF WARM AIR COINCIDES WITH PASSING MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE. WARM
AIR CONTINUES TO SPREAD IN FOR WED AND THU WITH LIMITED COLUMN
MOISTURE. CAPPING INVERSION DEVELOPS WHICH IS EXPECTED TO SUPPRESS
CONVECTION DURING THIS PERIOD WITH TEMPS WARMING TO SUMMER LEVELS BY
THU. HOWEVER DUE TO UNCERTAINTY...WL NEED TO CARRY TOKEN SCHC POPS
IN OTHER PERIODS WITH REGARD TO UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AT THIS POINT.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS/...MVFR CLOUD DECK GRADUALLY ERODING FROM THE
NORTH...BECOMING SCATTERED AND EVENTUALLY CLEAR BY MID EVENING CWA
WIDE. SURFACE HIGH WILL SETTLE ACROSS TONIGHT EASING THE NORTH
WINDS..THOUGH WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY IN THE EAST INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. THE HIGH WILL DOMINATE ON FRIDAY WITH A MUCH LIGHTER WIND
REGIME AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.
MARINE...PERSISTENT AND GUSTY NNE WINDS HAVE RESULTED IN HIGH
WAVES. GRADIENT EXPECTED TO VERY SLOWLY RELAX A BIT INTO THE EVENING
BUT THE WAVES WILL BE SLOW TO EASE. PONDERED AN EXTENSION TO THE
SMALL CRAFT HEADLINE BUT WILL LET EVENING SHIFT REASSESS TRENDS WITH
RESPECT TO WAVE CESSATION BASED ON WINDS FINALLY ABTE SOME. FOR
NOW...GOING END TIMES ARE PLAUSIBLE.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR WIZ046-047-051-
052-058>060-064-065-070.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR LMZ644>646.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR LMZ643.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HENTZ
TONIGHT/FRIDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...COLLAR
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MBK
000
FXUS63 KMKX 232026
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
325 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.VERY SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
POLAR HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL TRAVERSE TO WRN WI BY 12Z
FRIDAY. MOS GUIDANCE AND 2 METER TEMPS SUGGEST LOW TEMPS WILL BE MID
TO UPPER 30S WITH ONLY PATCHY FROST EXPECTED. GOING FORECAST LOOKS
GOOD WITH NO FROST ADVISORY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND LIGHTER
WINDS. 925 TEMPS PLAY OUT WITH 7C IN THE EAST AND AROUND 10C IN THE
WEST. GOING WITH MID 50S LAKESIDE AND MID 60S AT INLAND LOCALES.
.SHORT TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
LINGERING RIDGE WL RESULT IN CLEARING SKIES FOR A PERIOD FRIDAY
NIGHT ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS. THESE CONDITIONS WL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL OFF QUICKLY BEFORE HIGH CLOUDS THICKEN FROM
UPSTREAM WARM AIR ADVECTION. AS LAND BREEZE DEVELOPS...COOLER
TEMPERATURES WL DEVELOP OVER INLAND PORTIONS OF LAKESHORE
COUNTIES...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME MID-UPPER 30S. MORE CLOUDINESS IN
WESTERN CWA SHOULD PRECLUDE COOLER TEMPS. WL ADD PATCHY FROST
MENTION TO INLAND EASTERN AREA FOR LATER FRI NIGHT.
SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SHOWING A LITTLE MORE RIDGING PERSISTING OVER
SRN WI FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. UPSTREAM LOW LEVEL JET FOCUSES
ON SRN MN/NRN IA FRI NGT AND PIVOTS NORTHEAST INTO NORTHEAST IA LATE
IN THE NIGHT. DESPITE LOW LEVELS REMAINING DRY...WESTERN CWA MAY
GET CLIPPED BY MCS THAT WL BE MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH SAT MRNG.
BAROCLINIC ZONE THEN LINGERS OVER THE TRI-STATE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY.
LOW LEVEL DRY AIR FEED FROM THE EAST AND NEARBY RIDGING SHOULD
CONTRIBUTE TO EASTERN AREAS REMAINING DRY FOR MOST OF THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. WEAK RIPPLES MOVING THROUGH EXPANDING RIDGE WL THREATEN
WESTERN AREAS WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH THE BEST CHANCE LATE AT NIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING.
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
DIFFERENCES PERSIST THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD BETWEEN THE GFS AND
OTHER MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE. GFS REMAINS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH
PIECES OF ENERGY BEING EJECTED FROM DEEPENING UPSTREAM TROFING OVER
WRN CONUS. GFS ALSO HAD BEEN MORE PROGRESSIVE IN WEAKENING DEEP LOW
PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST CONUS BUT WITH 12Z RUN...HAS COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH SLOWER ECMWF. HENCE WL BE LEANING TOWARD DRIER
AND ULTIMATELY WARMER SCENARIO /ECMWF/ FOR MOST OF THIS PERIOD.
WITH THIS SOLUTION...MORE AMPLIFIED HIGH PRESSURE AFFECTS MORE OF
WRN GTLAKES EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND AGAIN WED INTO THU.
BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE TUE INTO WED WHEN
PUSH OF WARM AIR COINCIDES WITH PASSING MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE. WARM
AIR CONTINUES TO SPREAD IN FOR WED AND THU WITH LIMITED COLUMN
MOISTURE. CAPPING INVERSION DEVELOPS WHICH IS EXPECTED TO SUPPRESS
CONVECTION DURING THIS PERIOD WITH TEMPS WARMING TO SUMMER LEVELS BY
THU. HOWEVER DUE TO UNCERTAINTY...WL NEED TO CARRY TOKEN SCHC POPS
IN OTHER PERIODS WITH REGARD TO UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AT THIS POINT.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS/...MVFR CLOUD DECK GRADUALLY ERODING FROM THE
NORTH...BECOMING SCATTERED AND EVENTUALLY CLEAR BY MID EVENING CWA
WIDE. SURFACE HIGH WILL SETTLE ACROSS TONIGHT EASING THE NORTH
WINDS..THOUGH WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY IN THE EAST INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. THE HIGH WILL DOMINATE ON FRIDAY WITH A MUCH LIGHTER WIND
REGIME AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.
&&
.MARINE...PERSISTENT AND GUSTY NNE WINDS HAVE RESULTED IN HIGH
WAVES. GRADIENT EXPECTED TO VERY SLOWLY RELAX A BIT INTO THE EVENING
BUT THE WAVES WILL BE SLOW TO EASE. PONDERED AN EXTENSION TO THE
SMALL CRAFT HEADLINE BUT WILL LET EVENING SHIFT REASSESS TRENDS WITH
RESPECT TO WAVE CESSATION BASED ON WINDS FINALLY ABTE SOME. FOR
NOW...GOING END TIMES ARE PLAUSIBLE.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR LMZ644>646.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR LMZ643.
&&
.CONFIDENCE...
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...MEDIUM.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MEDIUM.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MEDIUM.
$$
VERY SHORT TERM AND AVIATION/MARINE...PC
SHORT TERM/LONG TERM...MBK
000
FXUS63 KMKX 231557
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1057 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...MVFR CLOUD DECK GRADUALLY ERODING FROM THE
NORTH...BECOMING SCATTERED ACRS SC WI. SE WI WILL HAVE THE CLOUDS
LINGER QUITE A BIT LONGER INTO THE AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR SHOWING
UPPER CYCLONIC FLOW LINGERING TODAY. FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE CWA RESULTING IN GUSTY NORTH WINDS...HIGHEST
WINDS AT EASTERN TAF SITES. SURFACE HIGH WILL SETTLE ACROSS
TONIGHT EASING THE WINDS AND CLEARING THE SKIES OFF. THE HIGH WILL
DOMINATE ON FRIDAY WITH A MUCH LIGHTER WIND REGIME AND PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE.
PC
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 432 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/
TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM TO HIGH.
UPPER LOW AND RAIN SHOWERS TO EXIT SRN WI FROM NW TO SE
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING WITH COLD AND DRY AIR ADVECTION TO FOLLOW.
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT INTO MI THIS AFTERNOON AND DIG INTO
THE ERN USA FOR TNT AND FRI. SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED BY MID MORNING
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WI AND EARLY AFTERNOON OVER FAR SE WI. FCST
SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD MIXING WELL INLAND FROM THE LAKE GIVEN THE
DRIER AIRMASS AND FULL SUNSHINE. THUS 925 MB TEMPS AROUND 8C AND
850 MB TEMPS AROUND 2C YIELDS HIGHS AROUND 60F OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
WI. AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S
NEAR THE LAKE.
POLAR HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL THEN TRAVERSE TO WRN WI
BY 12Z SAT. MOS GUIDANCE AND 2 METER TEMPS SUGGEST LOW TEMPS WILL
BE MID TO UPPER 30S WITH ONLY PATCHY FROST EXPECTED. NO FROST
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY WILL BRING QUIET
WEATHER...WITH A DRY AIRMASS PER AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM
NAM/GFS. COOL TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN WITH ONSHORE
WINDS...WITH MILDER VALUES INLAND.
FORECAST GETS MORE TRICKY FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT...AS MODELS ARE IN SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH THE PLACEMENT OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION. THE NAM CONTINUES TO BRING
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE
AREA LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...LINGERING INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO FOCUSED 850MB WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
FRONTOGENESIS RESPONSE OVER THIS AREA LATER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT...AS WELL AS THE 850MB LOW LEVEL JET POINTING INTO THE AREA.
GFS SHOWS THESE FEATURES AS WELL. 500MB RIDGE REMAINS JUST WEST OF
THE AREA DURING THIS TIME.
AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM SHOW SATURATION IN THE
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES LATER FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE LOW TO MID LEVELS
REMAINING MOIST SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. GFS NOT NEARLY AS
SATURATED OVER THE AREA DURING THIS TIME. NOT MUCH ELEVATED
INSTABILITY IS SEEN...SO THUNDER RISK SEEMS TO BE ON THE LOW SIDE.
THE GFS/CANADIAN/ECMWF SHOW LIGHTER QPF IN THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES
SATURDAY MORNING. KEPT LOWER END POPS IN THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE
AREA FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON
THE COOL SIDE WITH ONSHORE FLOW...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LAKE.
MORE DISAGREEMENT BY SATURDAY NIGHT...AS THE NAM/GFS/CANADIAN
CONTINUE TO BRING QPF INTO THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF COUNTIES...WITH
THE ECMWF DRY. CONTINUED LOW POPS FOR THE SOUTHWEST 2/3 OF THE
AREA FOR NOW. STRENGTH OF HIGH AND DRY EASTERLY FLOW WILL
DETERMINE HOW FAR EAST THE QPF COMES INTO THE AREA.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
GFS/ECMWF CONTINUES TO SHOW DIFFERENCES IN THIS PERIOD. THE GFS
CONTINUES TO BRING ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...AS LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION ZONE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE AREA
DRY DURING THIS TIME...AS THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH TO THE EAST
HOLDS BACK ANY PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTHWEST. ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD
KEEP COOL TEMPERATURES GOING...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LAKE.
BOTH MODELS DO SHOW A GENERAL WARMING TREND BY WEDNESDAY...AS WARM
FRONT PUSHES NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION...AND 500MB FLOW
GRADUALLY BECOMES WEST TO SOUTHWEST. GFS CONTINUES TO BE A BIT
MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS NEAR AND NORTH OF THE
FRONT THAN THE ECMWF. FOR NOW...WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE CONSENSUS
POPS AND TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND CIGS FROM 1-2.5 KFT
WITH AREAS OF MVFR VSBYS WILL END FROM NW TO SE ACROSS SRN WI THIS
MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KMSN AROUND 15Z AND AROUND
17-18Z AT THE SE WI TAF SITES. BRISK AND GUSTY NLY WINDS WILL
PREVAIL THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WITH CLEAR SKIES AND MUCH LIGHTER
WINDS TNT.
MARINE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT TODAY AND TONIGHT
FOR BRISK AND GUSTY NLY WINDS AND VERY HIGH WAVES OF 6 TO 10 FEET.
WIND GUSTS COULD BRIEFLY REACH GALE FORCE THIS AM. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SETTLE OVER WI AND LAKE MI ON FRIDAY WITH MUCH LIGHTER WINDS
AND SMALLER WAVE HEIGHTS.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR LMZ644>646.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR LMZ643.
&&
$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...GEHRING
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WOOD
000
FXUS63 KMKX 230933
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
432 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
INCLUDED MARINE SECTION
.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM TO HIGH.
UPPER LOW AND RAIN SHOWERS TO EXIT SRN WI FROM NW TO SE
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING WITH COLD AND DRY AIR ADVECTION TO FOLLOW.
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT INTO MI THIS AFTERNOON AND DIG INTO
THE ERN USA FOR TNT AND FRI. SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED BY MID MORNING
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WI AND EARLY AFTERNOON OVER FAR SE WI. FCST
SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD MIXING WELL INLAND FROM THE LAKE GIVEN THE
DRIER AIRMASS AND FULL SUNSHINE. THUS 925 MB TEMPS AROUND 8C AND
850 MB TEMPS AROUND 2C YIELDS HIGHS AROUND 60F OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
WI. AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S
NEAR THE LAKE.
POLAR HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL THEN TRAVERSE TO WRN WI
BY 12Z SAT. MOS GUIDANCE AND 2 METER TEMPS SUGGEST LOW TEMPS WILL
BE MID TO UPPER 30S WITH ONLY PATCHY FROST EXPECTED. NO FROST
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.
.FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY WILL BRING QUIET
WEATHER...WITH A DRY AIRMASS PER AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM
NAM/GFS. COOL TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN WITH ONSHORE
WINDS...WITH MILDER VALUES INLAND.
FORECAST GETS MORE TRICKY FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT...AS MODELS ARE IN SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH THE PLACEMENT OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION. THE NAM CONTINUES TO BRING
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE
AREA LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...LINGERING INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO FOCUSED 850MB WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
FRONTOGENESIS RESPONSE OVER THIS AREA LATER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT...AS WELL AS THE 850MB LOW LEVEL JET POINTING INTO THE AREA.
GFS SHOWS THESE FEATURES AS WELL. 500MB RIDGE REMAINS JUST WEST OF
THE AREA DURING THIS TIME.
AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM SHOW SATURATION IN THE
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES LATER FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE LOW TO MID LEVELS
REMAINING MOIST SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. GFS NOT NEARLY AS
SATURATED OVER THE AREA DURING THIS TIME. NOT MUCH ELEVATED
INSTABILITY IS SEEN...SO THUNDER RISK SEEMS TO BE ON THE LOW SIDE.
THE GFS/CANADIAN/ECMWF SHOW LIGHTER QPF IN THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES
SATURDAY MORNING. KEPT LOWER END POPS IN THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE
AREA FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON
THE COOL SIDE WITH ONSHORE FLOW...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LAKE.
MORE DISAGREEMENT BY SATURDAY NIGHT...AS THE NAM/GFS/CANADIAN
CONTINUE TO BRING QPF INTO THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF COUNTIES...WITH
THE ECMWF DRY. CONTINUED LOW POPS FOR THE SOUTHWEST 2/3 OF THE
AREA FOR NOW. STRENGTH OF HIGH AND DRY EASTERLY FLOW WILL
DETERMINE HOW FAR EAST THE QPF COMES INTO THE AREA.
.SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
GFS/ECMWF CONTINUES TO SHOW DIFFERENCES IN THIS PERIOD. THE GFS
CONTINUES TO BRING ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...AS LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION ZONE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE AREA
DRY DURING THIS TIME...AS THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH TO THE EAST
HOLDS BACK ANY PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTHWEST. ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD
KEEP COOL TEMPERATURES GOING...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LAKE.
BOTH MODELS DO SHOW A GENERAL WARMING TREND BY WEDNESDAY...AS WARM
FRONT PUSHES NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION...AND 500MB FLOW
GRADUALLY BECOMES WEST TO SOUTHWEST. GFS CONTINUES TO BE A BIT
MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS NEAR AND NORTH OF THE
FRONT THAN THE ECMWF. FOR NOW...WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE CONSENSUS
POPS AND TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND CIGS FROM 1-2.5 KFT
WITH AREAS OF MVFR VSBYS WILL END FROM NW TO SE ACROSS SRN WI THIS
MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KMSN AROUND 15Z AND AROUND
17-18Z AT THE SE WI TAF SITES. BRISK AND GUSTY NLY WINDS WILL
PREVAIL THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WITH CLEAR SKIES AND MUCH LIGHTER
WINDS TNT.
&&
.MARINE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT TODAY AND TONIGHT
FOR BRISK AND GUSTY NLY WINDS AND VERY HIGH WAVES OF 6 TO 10 FEET.
WIND GUSTS COULD BRIEFLY REACH GALE FORCE THIS AM. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SETTLE OVER WI AND LAKE MI ON FRIDAY WITH MUCH LIGHTER WINDS
AND SMALLER WAVE HEIGHTS.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR LMZ644>646.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR LMZ643.
&&
$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...GEHRING
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WOOD
000
FXUS63 KMKX 230829
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
329 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM TO HIGH.
UPPER LOW AND RAIN SHOWERS TO EXIT SRN WI FROM NW TO SE
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING WITH COLD AND DRY AIR ADVECTION TO FOLLOW.
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT INTO MI THIS AFTERNOON AND DIG INTO
THE ERN USA FOR TNT AND FRI. SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED BY MID MORNING
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WI AND EARLY AFTERNOON OVER FAR SE WI. FCST
SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD MIXING WELL INLAND FROM THE LAKE GIVEN THE
DRIER AIRMASS AND FULL SUNSHINE. THUS 925 MB TEMPS AROUND 8C AND
850 MB TEMPS AROUND 2C YIELDS HIGHS AROUND 60F OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
WI. AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S
NEAR THE LAKE.
POLAR HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL THEN TRAVERSE TO WRN WI
BY 12Z SAT. MOS GUIDANCE AND 2 METER TEMPS SUGGEST LOW TEMPS WILL
BE MID TO UPPER 30S WITH ONLY PATCHY FROST EXPECTED. NO FROST
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.
.FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY WILL BRING QUIET
WEATHER...WITH A DRY AIRMASS PER AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM
NAM/GFS. COOL TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN WITH ONSHORE
WINDS...WITH MILDER VALUES INLAND.
FORECAST GETS MORE TRICKY FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT...AS MODELS ARE IN SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH THE PLACEMENT OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION. THE NAM CONTINUES TO BRING
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE
AREA LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...LINGERING INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO FOCUSED 850MB WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
FRONTOGENESIS RESPONSE OVER THIS AREA LATER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT...AS WELL AS THE 850MB LOW LEVEL JET POINTING INTO THE AREA.
GFS SHOWS THESE FEATURES AS WELL. 500MB RIDGE REMAINS JUST WEST OF
THE AREA DURING THIS TIME.
AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM SHOW SATURATION IN THE
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES LATER FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE LOW TO MID LEVELS
REMAINING MOIST SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. GFS NOT NEARLY AS
SATURATED OVER THE AREA DURING THIS TIME. NOT MUCH ELEVATED
INSTABILITY IS SEEN...SO THUNDER RISK SEEMS TO BE ON THE LOW SIDE.
THE GFS/CANADIAN/ECMWF SHOW LIGHTER QPF IN THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES
SATURDAY MORNING. KEPT LOWER END POPS IN THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE
AREA FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON
THE COOL SIDE WITH ONSHORE FLOW...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LAKE.
MORE DISAGREEMENT BY SATURDAY NIGHT...AS THE NAM/GFS/CANADIAN
CONTINUE TO BRING QPF INTO THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF COUNTIES...WITH
THE ECMWF DRY. CONTINUED LOW POPS FOR THE SOUTHWEST 2/3 OF THE
AREA FOR NOW. STRENGTH OF HIGH AND DRY EASTERLY FLOW WILL
DETERMINE HOW FAR EAST THE QPF COMES INTO THE AREA.
.SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
GFS/ECMWF CONTINUES TO SHOW DIFFERENCES IN THIS PERIOD. THE GFS
CONTINUES TO BRING ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...AS LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION ZONE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE AREA
DRY DURING THIS TIME...AS THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH TO THE EAST
HOLDS BACK ANY PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTHWEST. ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD
KEEP COOL TEMPERATURES GOING...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LAKE.
BOTH MODELS DO SHOW A GENERAL WARMING TREND BY WEDNESDAY...AS WARM
FRONT PUSHES NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION...AND 500MB FLOW
GRADUALLY BECOMES WEST TO SOUTHWEST. GFS CONTINUES TO BE A BIT
MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS NEAR AND NORTH OF THE
FRONT THAN THE ECMWF. FOR NOW...WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE CONSENSUS
POPS AND TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND CIGS FROM 1-2.5 KFT
WITH AREAS OF MVFR VSBYS WILL END FROM NW TO SE ACROSS SRN WI THIS
MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KMSN AROUND 15Z AND AROUND
17-18Z AT THE SE WI TAF SITES. BRISK AND GUSTY NLY WINDS WILL
PREVAIL THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WITH CLEAR SKIES AND MUCH LIGHTER
WINDS TNT.
&&
.MARINE...COMING SOON...
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR LMZ644>646.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR LMZ643.
&&
$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...GEHRING
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WOOD
000
FXUS63 KMKX 230305
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1005 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
.UPDATE...
THE MID LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHEAST IOWA WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST. THE
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. A WINDSHIFT EXTENDS FROM NEAR
MINERAL POINT TO JANESVILLE. SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE OCCURRING JUST
NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...BUT WILL LOSS OF HEATING THESE SHOWERS
HAVE DIMINISHED A LITTLE SO MAINLY MODERATE RAINS EXPECTED.
AS THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES SOUTHEAST...THE AREA OF SHOWERS WILL
ALSO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH ALONG WITH THE BOUNDARY.
&&
.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...
IFR/LIFR CIGS MAINLY NORTH A A BOUNDARY FROM MINERAL POINT TO
JANESVILLE. AS THIS BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTH THE MOIST NORTHEAST LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL BRING THE IFR/LIFR SOUTH.
EXPECT DRYING THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHEN CIGS WILL RISE TO VFR FROM
THE NORTH.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA. TEMPS THURSDAY
NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE 30S MOST PLACES WITH THE COLDEST READINGS
ALONG THE KETTLE MORAINE SPINE IN SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN. WE COULD
SEE SOME PATCHY FROST IN THAT AREA.
FRIDAY LOOKS SUNNY WITH TEMPS JUST A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. AREAS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN WILL BE MUCH COOLER DUE TO THE
EXPECTED EASTERLY WIND.
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...FORCAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.
THE RIDGE BEGINS TO DRIFT EAST BY FRIDAY NIGHT. A SURGE OF WARM
ADVECTION WILL TRY TO BRING IN SOME THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WEST
AFTER MIDNIGHT CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY. THE NAM IS VERY
AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS...BOTH IN QPF AND EASTWARD EXTENT...WHILE
THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE SLOWER AND ALSO KEEPING IT FARTHER WEST.
THE CONSENSUS APPROACH LOOKS REASONABLE AND ONLY BRINGS A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA...MAINLY SOUTHWEST OF MADISON. AS THE ASSOCIATED
LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS ON SATURDAY...THIS SHOULD HELP TO DIMINISH
ANY LINGERING PRECIP BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW TO MEDIUM.
WE WILL BE IN A RATHER STEADY...UNCHANGING PATTERN DURING THIS
PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE HOLDING OVER THE GREAT LAKES WHILE
LOW PRESSURE HOLDS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ALOFT...THE RIGHT
REAR QUADRANT OF THE UPPER JET WILL BE HOVERING OVER THE
AREA...PROVIDING A RATHER SUSTAINED AREA OF UPPER DIVERGENCE/UVV
OVER THE CWA. AT THE SAME TIME...IN THE LOWER LEVELS...THE LOW
LEVEL JET WILL BE PERSISTENT...STRETCHING FROM KANSAS...MISSOURI
INTO IOWA. WE COULD SEE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RIDING SHOWERS AND
STORMS ROLL IN FROM THE NORTHWEST FROM TIME TO TIME...MAINLY
ACROSS THE SW FORECAST AREA. WHILE OUR NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA
COULD REMAIN DRY...PROTECTED FROM THE DRIER AIRMASS WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM. IT IS DIFFICULT AT THIS POINT TO KNOW JUST WHERE
THIS PATTERN WILL LOCK IN. DRIER AND COOLER AIR FROM THE EAST
WILL BE COMPETING WITH MORE MOIST AIR TRYING TO PUSH IN FROM THE
WEST. THIS EXPLAINS THE RATHER EXTENDED PERIOD OF CHCY RAIN IN THE
FORECAST.
AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...AS UPPER LOW OPENS UP AND PROGRESSES A BIT
QUICKER EASTWARD FROM IOWA...MVFR CEILINGS WILL BECOME PREVALENT.
SOME IFR CEILINGS TOO ARE EXPECTED ESPECIALLY WITH ANY SHRA. GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL START INCREASING AFTER 6Z. THESE GUSTY WINDS
WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THURSDAY ESPECIALLY AT THE EASTERN TAF
SITES.
MARINE...AS SURFACE TROUGH AXIS SLIDES SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH COLD ADVECTION. DECENT FETCH WILL
LEAD TO SOME HIGH WAVE ACTION. CLOSE CALL ON THE GALE POTENTIAL
THURSDAY BUT FOR NOW ELECTED TO KEEP THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN
PLACE.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM THURSDAY TO 4 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR
LMZ644>646.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM THURSDAY TO 1 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR
LMZ643.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HENTZ
TONIGHT/THURSDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...COLLAR
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DAVIS
000
FXUS63 KMKX 222001
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
301 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
TONIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO PLOD EVER SO SLOWLY EAST FROM NRN IA. LOW
LEVEL MOIST AXIS...DEW POINTS IN THE LOW 60S...EXTENDS FROM ERN IL
INTO SC WI PER ISODROSOTHERM ANALYSIS. LOW LEVEL DRY AIR OOZING IN
FROM ERN IA AND SW WI. BEST 700-300 MILLIBAR Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE
THIS EVENING THEN A GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THAT SIGNAL. AS 500 LOW
CENTER OPENS UP AND AXIS OF SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH AROUND 6-9Z
WILL KEEP THE LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS IN PLACE...THOUGH BASED ON RADAR
TRENDS...APPEARS A BREAK FOR A TIME THIS EVENING UNTIL THE INFLUENCE
OF THE LOW DRAWS CLOSER. HOWEVER WITH A WEDGE OF CLEARING MAY ALLOW
FOR A FEW MORE SHRA/ISOLD TSRA TO POP BEFORE THEN. 850 COLD
ADVECTION INCREASES AFTER 6Z.
THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
CONSENSUS OF PROGS IS TO LINGER SOME LIGHT QPF IN THE SOUTHEAST CWA
DURING THE MORNING. MAIN STORY WILL BE MUCH COOLER AND WINDY
CONDITIONS. 850 TEMPERATURES DROP TO 1-3C WITH THE PERSISTENT COLD
ADVECTION REGIME. 925 TEMPS RANGE FROM 6-9C SO MANY 50S EXPECTED
WITH BETTER SHOT AT 60 OR LOW 60S IN THE WESTERN CWA.
.THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA. TEMPS THURSDAY
NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE 30S MOST PLACES WITH THE COLDEST READINGS
ALONG THE KETTLE MORAINE SPINE IN SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN. WE COULD
SEE SOME PATCHY FROST IN THAT AREA.
FRIDAY LOOKS SUNNY WITH TEMPS JUST A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. AREAS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN WILL BE MUCH COOLER DUE TO THE
EXPECTED EASTERLY WIND.
.FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...FORCAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.
THE RIDGE BEGINS TO DRIFT EAST BY FRIDAY NIGHT. A SURGE OF WARM
ADVECTION WILL TRY TO BRING IN SOME THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WEST
AFTER MIDNIGHT CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY. THE NAM IS VERY
AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS...BOTH IN QPF AND EASTWARD EXTENT...WHILE
THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE SLOWER AND ALSO KEEPING IT FARTHER WEST.
THE CONSENSUS APPROACH LOOKS REASONABLE AND ONLY BRINGS A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA...MAINLY SOUTHWEST OF MADISON. AS THE ASSOCIATED
LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS ON SATURDAY...THIS SHOULD HELP TO DIMINISH
ANY LINGERING PRECIP BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
.SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW TO MEDIUM.
WE WILL BE IN A RATHER STEADY...UNCHANGING PATTERN DURING THIS
PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE HOLDING OVER THE GREAT LAKES WHILE
LOW PRESSURE HOLDS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ALOFT...THE RIGHT
REAR QUADRANT OF THE UPPER JET WILL BE HOVERING OVER THE
AREA...PROVIDING A RATHER SUSTAINED AREA OF UPPER DIVERGENCE/UVV
OVER THE CWA. AT THE SAME TIME...IN THE LOWER LEVELS...THE LOW
LEVEL JET WILL BE PERSISTENT...STRETCHING FROM KANSAS...MISSOURI
INTO IOWA. WE COULD SEE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RIDING SHOWERS AND
STORMS ROLL IN FROM THE NORTHWEST FROM TIME TO TIME...MAINLY
ACROSS THE SW FORECAST AREA. WHILE OUR NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA
COULD REMAIN DRY...PROTECTED FROM THE DRIER AIRMASS WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM. IT IS DIFFICULT AT THIS POINT TO KNOW JUST WHERE
THIS PATTERN WILL LOCK IN. DRIER AND COOLER AIR FROM THE EAST
WILL BE COMPETING WITH MORE MOIST AIR TRYING TO PUSH IN FROM THE
WEST. THIS EXPLAINS THE RATHER EXTENDED PERIOD OF CHCY RAIN IN THE
FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...AS UPPER LOW OPENS UP AND PROGRESSES A BIT
QUICKER EASTWARD FROM IOWA...MVFR CEILINGS WILL BECOME PREVALENT.
SOME IFR CEILINGS TOO ARE EXPECTED ESPECIALLY WITH ANY SHRA. GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL START INCREASING AFTER 6Z. THESE GUSTY WINDS
WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THURSDAY ESPECIALLY AT THE EASTERN TAF
SITES.
&&
.MARINE...AS SURFACE TROUGH AXIS SLIDES SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH COLD ADVECTION. DECENT FETCH WILL
LEAD TO SOME HIGH WAVE ACTION. CLOSE CALL ON THE GALE POTENTIAL
THURSDAY BUT FOR NOW ELECTED TO KEEP THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN
PLACE.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM THURSDAY TO 4 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR
LMZ644>646.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM THURSDAY TO 1 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR
LMZ643.
&&
$$
TONIGHT/THURSDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...COLLAR
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DAVIS
000
FXUS63 KMKX 221641
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1141 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...500 MILLIBAR CLOSED LOW PER WATER VAPOR/RUC
CONTINUES TO PLOD VERY SLOWLY EAST. MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTH INTO
EASTERN CWA. DECENT SURGE OF SHRA/TSRA HEADING INTO SE WI FROM NE
IL. PRECIP IS EXPECTED FILL IN ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA WITH
THE AID OF THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW. CEILINGS HAVE IMPROVED TO
THE SOUTH THOUGH EXPECT SOME LOWERING OF CEILINGS. NAM/GFS MOS
BOTH LOWER THINGS TO BELOW 500 FEET WIT TIME AND THIS WOULD BE
PLAUSIBLE WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN. TRENDED THAT WAY BUT WILL NEED TO
HAVE MORE RAIN FILL IN ACROSS THE AREA. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS KICK
IN LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH HIGHEST WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
LAKE MICHIGAN. PRECIP ENDS EARLY THURSDAY AS LOW MOVES AWAY.
PC
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 420 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/
TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH
NEW SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OVER NE IL WILL STREAM NNEWD INTO SERN WI
EARLY THIS AM. THE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTORMS WILL THEN EXPAND BY
LATE MORNING AS A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH PIVOTS NWD THROUGH
THE REGION FROM ITS CURRENT POSITION OVER MO. THE MAIN UPPER LOW
WILL THEN MOVE EWD ACROSS SRN WI TNT. MODEL OUTPUT AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW PWS OVER AN INCH THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH MOIST
ADIABATIC TO SLIGHTLY CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. THESE MOIST CONDITIONS ALONG WITH WEAK FLOW ALOFT AND AREAS
OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL MAKE FOR GOOD PCPN EFFICIENCY AND
MODERATE TO POSSIBLY SOMETIMES HEAVY RAINFALL RATES. FORECASTING AN
AVERAGE OF AN INCH OF RAIN FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT BUT LOCALIZED
AMOUNTS OF 2 INCHES OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM TO
HIGH.
LAST 500MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM SLIDES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY MORNING...WITH NAM/GFS AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING
SOME LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING. THUS...WILL KEEP POPS
GOING THURSDAY MORNING. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP GUSTY
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS GOING AS WELL.
COLD AIR ADVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON PUSHES SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE AREA...AS THE 500MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM EXITS THE REGION.
DOWNWARD MOTION SCOURS OUT THE MOISTURE DURING THIS TIME PER AREA
FORECAST SOUNDINGS. COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY...AS
WINDS REMAIN ONSHORE AND SLOWLY WEAKEN.
SHORT TERM MODELS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DECOUPLED WINDS INLAND
AND COLD TEMPERATURES PER 925MB AND MOS GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES.
LOWS SHOULD DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S AND PERHAPS A BIT
COLDER...WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME FROST. ADDED PATCHY FROST FOR
MOST OF THE AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION FRIDAY. AREA
FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO REMAIN DRY FRIDAY...SO KEPT THIS
PERIOD DRY. SOME RECOVERY IN HIGHS FOR FRIDAY ARE ANTICIPATED...AS
SLIGHTLY WARMER 925MB TEMPERATURES PUSH INTO THE AREA. ONSHORE
WINDS WILL KEEP LAKESHORE AREAS COOL.
NAM TRIES TO PUSH AN AREA OF FOCUSED 850MB WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
FRONTOGENESIS RESPONSE INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA...ALONG WITH AN 850MB LOW LEVEL JET NOSE. ECMWF ALSO TRIES TO
BRING IN QPF TO THE FAR WEST...WITH THE GFS AND CANADIAN KEEPING
THESE FEATURES WEST OF THE AREA. FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION LOW POPS IN THE WEST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MEDIUM.
THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER GREATLY WITH MOST FEATURES DURING THIS
PERIOD. THE GFS SHOWS A WEST TO EAST ORIENTED WARM FRONT SETTING
UP TO THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY...BEFORE PUSHING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
500MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM SLIDES JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA LATE
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER PASSING JUST SOUTH
SUNDAY...BEFORE A THIRD ONE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.
THIS SETUP BRINGS SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE
REGION.
AFTER PASSING QPF WITH THE FOCUSED WARM AIR ADVECTION AND LOW
LEVEL JET NOSE SATURDAY...THE ECMWF KEEPS THE EFFECTS OF HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA. IT KEEPS THE SYSTEM THE GFS HAD
AFFECTING SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION. EITHER
SETUP WOULD HAVE ONSHORE WINDS FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD...KEEPING
TEMPERATURES COOL NEAR THE LAKE. FOR NOW...WILL USE CONSENSUS POPS
AND TEMPERATURES FOR THIS PERIOD.
AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD SRN WI THIS AM AND
CONTINUE THROUGH TNT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. LOCAL
MVFR VSBYS FROM EARLY THIS AM WILL GIVE WAY TO MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS
WITH THE RAIN. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL LOWER TO IFR LEVELS FOR TNT.
MARINE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT LATE TNT INTO THU
NIGHT FOR BRISK NORTH WINDS AND HIGH WAVES. THE HIGH WINDS AND WAVES
WILL DEVELOP WHEN LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF LAKE MI AND THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES. MUCH LIGHTER WINDS AND WAVES ARE
EXPECTED FOR FRI WHEN HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER LAKE MI.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM THURSDAY TO 4 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR
LMZ644>646.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM THURSDAY TO 1 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR
LMZ643.
&&
$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...GEHRING
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WOOD
000
FXUS63 KMKX 220920
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
420 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH
NEW SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OVER NE IL WILL STREAM NNEWD INTO SERN WI
EARLY THIS AM. THE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTORMS WILL THEN EXPAND BY
LATE MORNING AS A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH PIVOTS NWD THROUGH
THE REGION FROM ITS CURRENT POSITION OVER MO. THE MAIN UPPER LOW
WILL THEN MOVE EWD ACROSS SRN WI TNT. MODEL OUTPUT AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW PWS OVER AN INCH THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH MOIST
ADIABATIC TO SLIGHTLY CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. THESE MOIST CONDITIONS ALONG WITH WEAK FLOW ALOFT AND AREAS
OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL MAKE FOR GOOD PCPN EFFICIENCY AND
MODERATE TO POSSIBLY SOMETIMES HEAVY RAINFALL RATES. FORECASTING AN
AVERAGE OF AN INCH OF RAIN FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT BUT LOCALIZED
AMOUNTS OF 2 INCHES OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE.
.THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM TO
HIGH.
LAST 500MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM SLIDES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY MORNING...WITH NAM/GFS AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING
SOME LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING. THUS...WILL KEEP POPS
GOING THURSDAY MORNING. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP GUSTY
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS GOING AS WELL.
COLD AIR ADVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON PUSHES SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE AREA...AS THE 500MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM EXITS THE REGION.
DOWNWARD MOTION SCOURS OUT THE MOISTURE DURING THIS TIME PER AREA
FORECAST SOUNDINGS. COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY...AS
WINDS REMAIN ONSHORE AND SLOWLY WEAKEN.
SHORT TERM MODELS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DECOUPLED WINDS INLAND
AND COLD TEMPERATURES PER 925MB AND MOS GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES.
LOWS SHOULD DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S AND PERHAPS A BIT
COLDER...WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME FROST. ADDED PATCHY FROST FOR
MOST OF THE AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION FRIDAY. AREA
FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO REMAIN DRY FRIDAY...SO KEPT THIS
PERIOD DRY. SOME RECOVERY IN HIGHS FOR FRIDAY ARE ANTICIPATED...AS
SLIGHTLY WARMER 925MB TEMPERATURES PUSH INTO THE AREA. ONSHORE
WINDS WILL KEEP LAKESHORE AREAS COOL.
NAM TRIES TO PUSH AN AREA OF FOCUSED 850MB WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
FRONTOGENESIS RESPONSE INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA...ALONG WITH AN 850MB LOW LEVEL JET NOSE. ECMWF ALSO TRIES TO
BRING IN QPF TO THE FAR WEST...WITH THE GFS AND CANADIAN KEEPING
THESE FEATURES WEST OF THE AREA. FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION LOW POPS IN THE WEST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.
.SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MEDIUM.
THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER GREATLY WITH MOST FEATURES DURING THIS
PERIOD. THE GFS SHOWS A WEST TO EAST ORIENTED WARM FRONT SETTING
UP TO THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY...BEFORE PUSHING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
500MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM SLIDES JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA LATE
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER PASSING JUST SOUTH
SUNDAY...BEFORE A THIRD ONE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.
THIS SETUP BRINGS SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE
REGION.
AFTER PASSING QPF WITH THE FOCUSED WARM AIR ADVECTION AND LOW
LEVEL JET NOSE SATURDAY...THE ECMWF KEEPS THE EFFECTS OF HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA. IT KEEPS THE SYSTEM THE GFS HAD
AFFECTING SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION. EITHER
SETUP WOULD HAVE ONSHORE WINDS FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD...KEEPING
TEMPERATURES COOL NEAR THE LAKE. FOR NOW...WILL USE CONSENSUS POPS
AND TEMPERATURES FOR THIS PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD SRN WI THIS AM AND
CONTINUE THROUGH TNT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. LOCAL
MVFR VSBYS FROM EARLY THIS AM WILL GIVE WAY TO MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS
WITH THE RAIN. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL LOWER TO IFR LEVELS FOR TNT.
&&
.MARINE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT LATE TNT INTO THU
NIGHT FOR BRISK NORTH WINDS AND HIGH WAVES. THE HIGH WINDS AND WAVES
WILL DEVELOP WHEN LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF LAKE MI AND THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES. MUCH LIGHTER WINDS AND WAVES ARE
EXPECTED FOR FRI WHEN HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER LAKE MI.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...GEHRING
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WOOD
000
FXUS63 KMKX 220830
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
330 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
.TODAY AND TONIGHT...COMING SOON...
.THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM TO
HIGH.
LAST 500MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM SLIDES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY MORNING...WITH NAM/GFS AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING
SOME LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING. THUS...WILL KEEP POPS
GOING THURSDAY MORNING. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP GUSTY
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS GOING AS WELL.
COLD AIR ADVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON PUSHES SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE AREA...AS THE 500MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM EXITS THE REGION.
DOWNWARD MOTION SCOURS OUT THE MOISTURE DURING THIS TIME PER AREA
FORECAST SOUNDINGS. COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY...AS
WINDS REMAIN ONSHORE AND SLOWLY WEAKEN.
SHORT TERM MODELS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DECOUPLED WINDS INLAND
AND COLD TEMPERATURES PER 925MB AND MOS GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES.
LOWS SHOULD DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S AND PERHAPS A BIT
COLDER...WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME FROST. ADDED PATCHY FROST FOR
MOST OF THE AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION FRIDAY. AREA
FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO REMAIN DRY FRIDAY...SO KEPT THIS
PERIOD DRY. SOME RECOVERY IN HIGHS FOR FRIDAY ARE ANTICIPATED...AS
SLIGHTLY WARMER 925MB TEMPERATURES PUSH INTO THE AREA. ONSHORE
WINDS WILL KEEP LAKESHORE AREAS COOL.
NAM TRIES TO PUSH AN AREA OF FOCUSED 850MB WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
FRONTOGENESIS RESPONSE INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA...ALONG WITH AN 850MB LOW LEVEL JET NOSE. ECMWF ALSO TRIES TO
BRING IN QPF TO THE FAR WEST...WITH THE GFS AND CANADIAN KEEPING
THESE FEATURES WEST OF THE AREA. FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION LOW POPS IN THE WEST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.
.SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MEDIUM.
THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER GREATLY WITH MOST FEATURES DURING THIS
PERIOD. THE GFS SHOWS A WEST TO EAST ORIENTED WARM FRONT SETTING
UP TO THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY...BEFORE PUSHING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
500MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM SLIDES JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA LATE
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER PASSING JUST SOUTH
SUNDAY...BEFORE A THIRD ONE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.
THIS SETUP BRINGS SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE
REGION.
AFTER PASSING QPF WITH THE FOCUSED WARM AIR ADVECTION AND LOW
LEVEL JET NOSE SATURDAY...THE ECMWF KEEPS THE EFFECTS OF HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA. IT KEEPS THE SYSTEM THE GFS HAD
AFFECTING SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION. EITHER
SETUP WOULD HAVE ONSHORE WINDS FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD...KEEPING
TEMPERATURES COOL NEAR THE LAKE. FOR NOW...WILL USE CONSENSUS POPS
AND TEMPERATURES FOR THIS PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...COMING SOON...
&&
.MARINE...COMING SOON...
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...GEHRING
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WOOD
000
FXUS63 KMKX 220252
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
952 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.UPDATE...
DO NOT EXPECT SHOWERS UNTIL LATE MORNING AS CYCLONIC VORTICITY MAXIMUM
ROTATES AROUND UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN IOWA AND INTO SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN. 00Z NAM HAS MODERATE 700 MB UPWARD MOTION OF 7 MICROBARS/SEC
WITH THIS FEATURE.
&&
.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT FOR MVFR VSBYS IN FOG AROUND SUNRISE.
EXPECT SHOWERS TO SPREAD INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN LATE MORNING
RESULTING IN SOME MVFR CIGS/VSBYS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013/
VERY SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
TONIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
TWO DISTINCT CIRCULATION CENTERS SHOW UP NICELY ON WATER VAPOR. THIS
FIRST IN NORTHERN MN AND THE SECOND ON THE SD/MN BORDER. ISOLD TSRA
POPPED UP ALONG WIND SHIFT/MOISTURE GRADIENT DURING THE AFTERNOON.
UPPER JET CORE ON EASTERN SIDE OF CIRCULATION CENTER CONTINUES TO
STREAM ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. IN THE LOW LEVELS DRY AIR HAS
WRAPPED IN ON SW WINDS. A SECONDARY LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS SOUTHERN IL AND THEN TRACK UP NEAR CHICAGO BY 12Z.
MOISTURE/QPF SNEAKS INTO THE FAR SE BETWEEN 6-12Z...THE GFS BEING A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE DRY NAM AND THE MORE ROBUST 12Z ECMWF.
WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
PASSING LOW TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST IN COMBO WITH EVOLVING SURFACE
TROUGH/850 TROUGH SETS UP DECENT LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX
CONVERGENCE WITH THE CONVERGING LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS. THIS COMBINED
WITH THE GRADUAL PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LOW TOWARDS WI SHOULD
RESULT IN A DECENT COVERAGE OF SHRA. CAPE IS LIMITED SO NOT THINKING
HIGHLY OF THUNDER POTENTIAL.
SHORT TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
STACKED LOW...NOW EVOLVING INTO AN OPEN TROUGH...MOVES ACROSS AND
OUT OF FORECAST AREA AS IT PHASES WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPPING
ACROSS HUDSON BAY/JAMES BAY PRODUCING A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. THAT EVENTUALLY CLOSES OFF OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
SATURDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE
DEPARTING LOW WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS IN THE EVENING AS DEFORMATION ZONE ASSOCIATED
WITH 850-700 MB LOWS DROPS THROUGH REGION REFLECTED IN LAYER
Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE MAXIMA...SLOWLY DIMINISHING FROM NW TO SE AFTER
06Z. WILL KEEP A CHANCE THURSDAY MORNING FOR THE SE 1/2 UNTIL CVA
WITH LAST TRAILING SHORT WAVE CLEARS THE EAST AROUND 18Z.
FORECAST QPF THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY IS FOR A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD 0.50 TO
0.75 INCH RAINFALL FOR THE CWA...BUT IF ATMOSPHERE BECOMES A BIT
MORE UNSTABLE THAN EXPECTED WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...AMOUNTS COULD
GO LOCALLY HIGHER THOUGH THUNDER CHANCES REMAIN TOO LOW TO MENTION
AT THIS TIME.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND 925 MB TEMPS INDICATE LOWS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THURSDAY HIGHS ONLY IN
THE MID-UPPER 50S WITH FLOW OFF OF THE LAKE IN THE EAST...WHILE
SUPERADIABATIC BUMP ALLOWS MID 60S IN THE WEST.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH.
COLD AIR SETTLES OVER REGION UNDER THE CORE OF THE SURFACE
HIGH...WITH 925 MB TEMPERATURES OF 4C TO 5C BY 12Z FRIDAY. WITH
DECOUPLED WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES LOW TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE
UPPER 30S EXCEPT IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WESTERN SOUTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN AND ALONG THE LAKE. SOME LOWER LOCATIONS LIKE THE VALLEYS
OF THE KETTLE MORAINE MAY SEE FROST.
HIGH SHIFT EAST THURSDAY...ALLOWING A LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA...WITH 925 MB TEMPERATURES
RECOVERING TO 10C TO 12C. EXPECT MID TO UPPER 60S THERE...WHILE
SINGLE DIGIT 925 MB READINGS AND AFTERNOON LAKE BREEZE HOLD HIGHS IN
THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 IN THE EAST.
LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE
MEDIUM TO LOW.
EVENTUAL LOCATION OF CLOSED LOW AND UPPER JET KEY TO
WEATHER...ESPECIALLY FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. GFS HAS A WEAKER
NARROWER 850 MB RIDGE OVER THE REGION WHICH ALLOWS PERIODS OF
SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS...TO FIRE ALONG BAROCLINIC
RIBBON THAT BECOMES SITUATED ALONG THE MS RIVER. SUBSEQUENT
ISENTROPIC LIFT/SLOPED FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ALONG THE TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OF RIGHT ENTRANCE OF
PERSISTENT 250 MB JET MAX. ECMWF FARTHER WEST WITH BAROCLINIC ZONE
AND KEEPS PCPN WEST OF CWA AFTER GLANCING THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT.
BLENDED POPS KEEPS CHANCE POPS IN THE WEST FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT...AND SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE EAST. MODELS DIVERGE FOR
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DUE TO
BLENDING. AFTER ONLY REACHING THE 60S FOR HIGHS FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...70S TRY TO PUSH BACK IN FOR MONDAY...BUT MAINLY IN THE SW
PORTION OF CWA.
AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...LOW LEVEL DRY AIR INFLUX FROM THE SOUTHWEST
HAS DIMINISHED INSTABILITY. PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER WRAPPING AROUND
MID/UPPER CIRCULATION CENTERS IN THE PLAINS. A LOT OF THIS HAS A
DIURNAL LOOK TO IT. EXPECT MORE CLOUD COVER LATER TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS SECONDARY SURFACE LOW HEADS NORTHEAST. MODELS BRING
MORE PRECIP INTO THE AREA WITH THIS FEATURE AND EASTWARD PUSH OF
SLOW MOVING MID LEVEL CIRCULATION FROM THE PLAINS. SO EXPECTING MVFR
CEILINGS WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SHRA.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HENTZ
TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...COLLAR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...REM
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