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000
FXUS63 KMKX 210335
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
935 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...

700 MB RH REMAINS RATHER DRY TONIGHT. 850 MB LAYERS ARE SATURATED
BUT DRY FROM THE SOUTH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE WARM AIR ADVECTION
INCREASES. 925 MB RH INCREASES EAST LATE AND STAYS HIGH TROUGH THE
DAY. THEREFORE EXPECT STRATUS TO LOWER. MAIN CONCERN IS
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE. VERY WEAK 700 MB UPWARD MOTION UNTIL
AFTER SUNRISE. THEREFORE MAIN CONCERN OF FREEZING DRIZZLE/DRIZZLE
WILL BE AFTER SUNRISE...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL RISE. IN ADDITION
SURFACE DEWPOINTS DO NOT SATURATE SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY HEADLINES
AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...

700 MB RH REMAINS RATHER DRY TONIGHT. 850 MB LAYERS ARE SATURATED
BUT DRY FROM THE SOUTH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE WARM AIR ADVECTION
INCREASES. 925 MB RH INCREASES EAST LATE AND STAYS HIGH TROUGH THE
DAY. THEREFORE EXPECT STRATUS TO LOWER EAST WITH MVFR CIGS
BECOMING IFR ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...WITH SOME LIFR SUNDAY
MORNING. MAIN CONCERN IS DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE. VERY WEAK 700
MB UPWARD MOTION UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE. THEREFORE MAIN CONCERN OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE/DRIZZLE WILL BE AFTER SUNRISE...BUT TEMPERATURES
WILL RISE. IN ADDITION SURFACE DEWPOINTS DO NOT SATURATE SO DO NOT
EXPECT ANY HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO PULL EAST WITH WIDESPREAD VERY LIGHT...LOW
DBZ RETURNS. PRECIP EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. MID LEVELS THEN BECOME RATHER BROADLY ANTICYCLONIC. KEY FOR
ANY ADDITIONAL FORCING WILL BE LARGELY IN THE LOW LAYERS. THIS WILL
BE CAUSED BY TIGHTENING BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH INCREASING CROSS-
ISOTHERMAL FLOW...ISENTROPIC LIFT. MOISTURE DEPTH IS LIMITED AND SO
THE LAYERS THAT ARE MOIST MAY SQUEEZE OUT SOME FZDZ OR SLEET LATER
IN THE NIGHT INTO EARLY. QUESTION IS THERE AS TO WHETHER THE
SOUNDINGS ARE JUST TOO MOIST RESULTING IN THE TRACE/LIGHT QPF
GENERATION BUT THERE IS THE DECENT ISENTROPIC LIFT SIGNAL SO WILL
KEEP THE LOW MOS POPS GOING. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW THE DRY AIR ALOFT
WHICH KEEPS THE DENDRIDIC GROWTH ZONE FREE OF SATURATION WHICH
LIMITS THE INTRODUCTION OF ICE INTO THE COLUMN.  MODEL QPF OUTPUT
KEYS ON SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWEST CWA AFTER 6Z...AND THEN THE WESTERN
1/2 TO 2/3RDS FOR 12Z-18Z SUNDAY. SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY AIRFLOW WILL
ALLOW FOR CONTINUED WARMING OF THE AIRMASS THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER
SUBZERO 850 TEMPS WILL LINGER ESP ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CWA SO WILL
KEEP POTENTIAL OF A LIGHT RAIN/LIGHT SNOW MIX GOING THERE.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

STRONG SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL PUSH OUT OF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST INTO THE NRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS BY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL SUBSEQUENTLY FORM FROM THE
DAKOTAS...STRETCHING SOUTH THROUGH OKLAHOMA DURING THIS SAME TIME.
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...ANY PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE SMALL AND
LIMITED TO AREAS MOSTLY WEST OF MADISON...AND COULD BE A RAIN/SNOW
MIX. BY MONDAY...INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW COUPLED WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF THE FIRST MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF AHEAD OF THE MAIN
LOW SHOULD SPREAD A BAND OF RAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING
THE DAY. TEMPS WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP IT ALL RAIN...EXCEPT
FOR A POTENTIAL RAIN/SNOW MIX NORTH OF MADISON EARLY.

THERE SHOULD BE A DIMINISHING TREND IN PRECIP MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY AS THE SFC LOW SPLITS...WITH ONE LOW CENTER MOVING OFF
INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN WHILE SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT OCCURS OVER
THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. TEMPS WILL STILL BE WARM
ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN UP TO THIS POINT. IN FACT TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB
INTO THE 40S ON TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THIS TIME. THE MODELS
HAVE YET TO CONVERGE ON A SIMILAR TRACK...VERY TYPICAL AT THIS
STAGE. THE GFS OPERATIONAL RUN...WHICH IS AN OUTLIER TO THE GFS
ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS...PRODUCES PLENTY OF SNOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WOULD HAVE BIG
IMPACT. HOWEVER...AS MENTIONED...THIS IS A BIG OUTLIER TO THE
ENSEMBLES WHICH SUGGEST A SOLUTION CLOSER TO THE ECMWF IS A HIGHER
PROBABILITY. THE ECMWF TAKES THE LOW FROM THE OHIO/IND BORDER TO
NRN LAKE HURON VCNTY. THIS WOULD KEEP MOST OF THE HIGHER PRECIP
MUCH FARTHER EAST...GIVING OUR AREA ABOUT AN INCH OF SNOW. THE
CANADIAN GEM IS...AGAIN...IN BETWEEN THESE TWO. AT THIS POINT THE
CONSENSUS APPROACH IS BEST AND IT GIVES ABOUT 3-4 INCHES OF SNOW
ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN CHRISTMAS EVE...DRYING OUT ON CHRISTMAS.
SO...A WHITE CHRISTMAS IS STILL POSSIBLE. THE BIGGEST TRAVEL
CONCERNS WILL BE CHRISTMAS EVE...ESPECIALLY IF YOU/RE TRAVELING
EAST AND NORTH OF THE AREA.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

ANOTHER WEAK LOW...ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER PACIFIC NORTHWEST
SHORT WAVE...WILL ARRIVE ON FRIDAY AND COULD BRING US ANOTHER
ROUND OF SNOW. THIS IS A FAST MOVER...SO ACCUMS SHOULD STAY FAIRLY
LOW. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY
MOVES IN. WE MIGHT SEE SOME SUNSHINE...BUT TEMPS WILL BE MUCH
COOLER.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST
INTO LWR MI. WIDESPREAD VERY LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES EXPECTED TO PERSIST
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS IN THE EASTERN CWA. LITTLE IF ANY
ACCUMULATION. REMAINING VFR CIGS WILL LIKELY TRANSITION TO MVFR AS
THE AFTERNOON WEARS ON. SREF CIG PRBS INDICATE INCREASE POTENTIAL
FOR IFR CIGS LATER TNGT IN SC WI AND SUN MRNG WITH MVFR CIGS HANGING
ON IN THE EASTERN AREAS. WITH ISENTROPIC ASCENT INCREASING EXPECT
SOME ZL TO DVLP AFT 06Z AND LINGER INTO EARLY SUN MRNG BEFORE TMPS
MODIFY ABV FRZG. ENOUGH MID LEVEL SATURATION IN THE DENDRIDIC GROWTH
ZONE TO SUGGEST SOME SNOW MIXING IN AS WELL ON SUNDAY...BUT PRECIP
POTENTIAL BECOMES CONFINED TO NW CWA...NORTH AND NW OF TAF
SITES....ESP AFT 18Z SUNDAY.

MARINE...HOISTED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT DUE TO STRONG SSW WINDS AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE. HIGHEST WAVES WILL BE IN THE NORTHERN NEARSHORE WATERS BUT
LOOKS LIKE ALL OF THE NEARSHORE AREA WILL GET IN ON SOME OF THE
GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM SUNDAY TO 3 AM CST TUESDAY FOR
     LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HENTZ
TONIGHT/SUNDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...COLLAR
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...DAVIS




000
FXUS63 KMKX 210335
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
935 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...

700 MB RH REMAINS RATHER DRY TONIGHT. 850 MB LAYERS ARE SATURATED
BUT DRY FROM THE SOUTH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE WARM AIR ADVECTION
INCREASES. 925 MB RH INCREASES EAST LATE AND STAYS HIGH TROUGH THE
DAY. THEREFORE EXPECT STRATUS TO LOWER. MAIN CONCERN IS
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE. VERY WEAK 700 MB UPWARD MOTION UNTIL
AFTER SUNRISE. THEREFORE MAIN CONCERN OF FREEZING DRIZZLE/DRIZZLE
WILL BE AFTER SUNRISE...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL RISE. IN ADDITION
SURFACE DEWPOINTS DO NOT SATURATE SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY HEADLINES
AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...

700 MB RH REMAINS RATHER DRY TONIGHT. 850 MB LAYERS ARE SATURATED
BUT DRY FROM THE SOUTH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE WARM AIR ADVECTION
INCREASES. 925 MB RH INCREASES EAST LATE AND STAYS HIGH TROUGH THE
DAY. THEREFORE EXPECT STRATUS TO LOWER EAST WITH MVFR CIGS
BECOMING IFR ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...WITH SOME LIFR SUNDAY
MORNING. MAIN CONCERN IS DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE. VERY WEAK 700
MB UPWARD MOTION UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE. THEREFORE MAIN CONCERN OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE/DRIZZLE WILL BE AFTER SUNRISE...BUT TEMPERATURES
WILL RISE. IN ADDITION SURFACE DEWPOINTS DO NOT SATURATE SO DO NOT
EXPECT ANY HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO PULL EAST WITH WIDESPREAD VERY LIGHT...LOW
DBZ RETURNS. PRECIP EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. MID LEVELS THEN BECOME RATHER BROADLY ANTICYCLONIC. KEY FOR
ANY ADDITIONAL FORCING WILL BE LARGELY IN THE LOW LAYERS. THIS WILL
BE CAUSED BY TIGHTENING BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH INCREASING CROSS-
ISOTHERMAL FLOW...ISENTROPIC LIFT. MOISTURE DEPTH IS LIMITED AND SO
THE LAYERS THAT ARE MOIST MAY SQUEEZE OUT SOME FZDZ OR SLEET LATER
IN THE NIGHT INTO EARLY. QUESTION IS THERE AS TO WHETHER THE
SOUNDINGS ARE JUST TOO MOIST RESULTING IN THE TRACE/LIGHT QPF
GENERATION BUT THERE IS THE DECENT ISENTROPIC LIFT SIGNAL SO WILL
KEEP THE LOW MOS POPS GOING. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW THE DRY AIR ALOFT
WHICH KEEPS THE DENDRIDIC GROWTH ZONE FREE OF SATURATION WHICH
LIMITS THE INTRODUCTION OF ICE INTO THE COLUMN.  MODEL QPF OUTPUT
KEYS ON SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWEST CWA AFTER 6Z...AND THEN THE WESTERN
1/2 TO 2/3RDS FOR 12Z-18Z SUNDAY. SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY AIRFLOW WILL
ALLOW FOR CONTINUED WARMING OF THE AIRMASS THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER
SUBZERO 850 TEMPS WILL LINGER ESP ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CWA SO WILL
KEEP POTENTIAL OF A LIGHT RAIN/LIGHT SNOW MIX GOING THERE.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

STRONG SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL PUSH OUT OF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST INTO THE NRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS BY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL SUBSEQUENTLY FORM FROM THE
DAKOTAS...STRETCHING SOUTH THROUGH OKLAHOMA DURING THIS SAME TIME.
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...ANY PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE SMALL AND
LIMITED TO AREAS MOSTLY WEST OF MADISON...AND COULD BE A RAIN/SNOW
MIX. BY MONDAY...INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW COUPLED WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF THE FIRST MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF AHEAD OF THE MAIN
LOW SHOULD SPREAD A BAND OF RAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING
THE DAY. TEMPS WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP IT ALL RAIN...EXCEPT
FOR A POTENTIAL RAIN/SNOW MIX NORTH OF MADISON EARLY.

THERE SHOULD BE A DIMINISHING TREND IN PRECIP MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY AS THE SFC LOW SPLITS...WITH ONE LOW CENTER MOVING OFF
INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN WHILE SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT OCCURS OVER
THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. TEMPS WILL STILL BE WARM
ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN UP TO THIS POINT. IN FACT TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB
INTO THE 40S ON TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THIS TIME. THE MODELS
HAVE YET TO CONVERGE ON A SIMILAR TRACK...VERY TYPICAL AT THIS
STAGE. THE GFS OPERATIONAL RUN...WHICH IS AN OUTLIER TO THE GFS
ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS...PRODUCES PLENTY OF SNOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WOULD HAVE BIG
IMPACT. HOWEVER...AS MENTIONED...THIS IS A BIG OUTLIER TO THE
ENSEMBLES WHICH SUGGEST A SOLUTION CLOSER TO THE ECMWF IS A HIGHER
PROBABILITY. THE ECMWF TAKES THE LOW FROM THE OHIO/IND BORDER TO
NRN LAKE HURON VCNTY. THIS WOULD KEEP MOST OF THE HIGHER PRECIP
MUCH FARTHER EAST...GIVING OUR AREA ABOUT AN INCH OF SNOW. THE
CANADIAN GEM IS...AGAIN...IN BETWEEN THESE TWO. AT THIS POINT THE
CONSENSUS APPROACH IS BEST AND IT GIVES ABOUT 3-4 INCHES OF SNOW
ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN CHRISTMAS EVE...DRYING OUT ON CHRISTMAS.
SO...A WHITE CHRISTMAS IS STILL POSSIBLE. THE BIGGEST TRAVEL
CONCERNS WILL BE CHRISTMAS EVE...ESPECIALLY IF YOU/RE TRAVELING
EAST AND NORTH OF THE AREA.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

ANOTHER WEAK LOW...ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER PACIFIC NORTHWEST
SHORT WAVE...WILL ARRIVE ON FRIDAY AND COULD BRING US ANOTHER
ROUND OF SNOW. THIS IS A FAST MOVER...SO ACCUMS SHOULD STAY FAIRLY
LOW. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY
MOVES IN. WE MIGHT SEE SOME SUNSHINE...BUT TEMPS WILL BE MUCH
COOLER.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST
INTO LWR MI. WIDESPREAD VERY LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES EXPECTED TO PERSIST
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS IN THE EASTERN CWA. LITTLE IF ANY
ACCUMULATION. REMAINING VFR CIGS WILL LIKELY TRANSITION TO MVFR AS
THE AFTERNOON WEARS ON. SREF CIG PRBS INDICATE INCREASE POTENTIAL
FOR IFR CIGS LATER TNGT IN SC WI AND SUN MRNG WITH MVFR CIGS HANGING
ON IN THE EASTERN AREAS. WITH ISENTROPIC ASCENT INCREASING EXPECT
SOME ZL TO DVLP AFT 06Z AND LINGER INTO EARLY SUN MRNG BEFORE TMPS
MODIFY ABV FRZG. ENOUGH MID LEVEL SATURATION IN THE DENDRIDIC GROWTH
ZONE TO SUGGEST SOME SNOW MIXING IN AS WELL ON SUNDAY...BUT PRECIP
POTENTIAL BECOMES CONFINED TO NW CWA...NORTH AND NW OF TAF
SITES....ESP AFT 18Z SUNDAY.

MARINE...HOISTED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT DUE TO STRONG SSW WINDS AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE. HIGHEST WAVES WILL BE IN THE NORTHERN NEARSHORE WATERS BUT
LOOKS LIKE ALL OF THE NEARSHORE AREA WILL GET IN ON SOME OF THE
GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM SUNDAY TO 3 AM CST TUESDAY FOR
     LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HENTZ
TONIGHT/SUNDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...COLLAR
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...DAVIS





000
FXUS63 KMKX 210335
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
935 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...

700 MB RH REMAINS RATHER DRY TONIGHT. 850 MB LAYERS ARE SATURATED
BUT DRY FROM THE SOUTH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE WARM AIR ADVECTION
INCREASES. 925 MB RH INCREASES EAST LATE AND STAYS HIGH TROUGH THE
DAY. THEREFORE EXPECT STRATUS TO LOWER. MAIN CONCERN IS
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE. VERY WEAK 700 MB UPWARD MOTION UNTIL
AFTER SUNRISE. THEREFORE MAIN CONCERN OF FREEZING DRIZZLE/DRIZZLE
WILL BE AFTER SUNRISE...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL RISE. IN ADDITION
SURFACE DEWPOINTS DO NOT SATURATE SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY HEADLINES
AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...

700 MB RH REMAINS RATHER DRY TONIGHT. 850 MB LAYERS ARE SATURATED
BUT DRY FROM THE SOUTH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE WARM AIR ADVECTION
INCREASES. 925 MB RH INCREASES EAST LATE AND STAYS HIGH TROUGH THE
DAY. THEREFORE EXPECT STRATUS TO LOWER EAST WITH MVFR CIGS
BECOMING IFR ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...WITH SOME LIFR SUNDAY
MORNING. MAIN CONCERN IS DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE. VERY WEAK 700
MB UPWARD MOTION UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE. THEREFORE MAIN CONCERN OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE/DRIZZLE WILL BE AFTER SUNRISE...BUT TEMPERATURES
WILL RISE. IN ADDITION SURFACE DEWPOINTS DO NOT SATURATE SO DO NOT
EXPECT ANY HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO PULL EAST WITH WIDESPREAD VERY LIGHT...LOW
DBZ RETURNS. PRECIP EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. MID LEVELS THEN BECOME RATHER BROADLY ANTICYCLONIC. KEY FOR
ANY ADDITIONAL FORCING WILL BE LARGELY IN THE LOW LAYERS. THIS WILL
BE CAUSED BY TIGHTENING BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH INCREASING CROSS-
ISOTHERMAL FLOW...ISENTROPIC LIFT. MOISTURE DEPTH IS LIMITED AND SO
THE LAYERS THAT ARE MOIST MAY SQUEEZE OUT SOME FZDZ OR SLEET LATER
IN THE NIGHT INTO EARLY. QUESTION IS THERE AS TO WHETHER THE
SOUNDINGS ARE JUST TOO MOIST RESULTING IN THE TRACE/LIGHT QPF
GENERATION BUT THERE IS THE DECENT ISENTROPIC LIFT SIGNAL SO WILL
KEEP THE LOW MOS POPS GOING. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW THE DRY AIR ALOFT
WHICH KEEPS THE DENDRIDIC GROWTH ZONE FREE OF SATURATION WHICH
LIMITS THE INTRODUCTION OF ICE INTO THE COLUMN.  MODEL QPF OUTPUT
KEYS ON SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWEST CWA AFTER 6Z...AND THEN THE WESTERN
1/2 TO 2/3RDS FOR 12Z-18Z SUNDAY. SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY AIRFLOW WILL
ALLOW FOR CONTINUED WARMING OF THE AIRMASS THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER
SUBZERO 850 TEMPS WILL LINGER ESP ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CWA SO WILL
KEEP POTENTIAL OF A LIGHT RAIN/LIGHT SNOW MIX GOING THERE.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

STRONG SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL PUSH OUT OF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST INTO THE NRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS BY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL SUBSEQUENTLY FORM FROM THE
DAKOTAS...STRETCHING SOUTH THROUGH OKLAHOMA DURING THIS SAME TIME.
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...ANY PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE SMALL AND
LIMITED TO AREAS MOSTLY WEST OF MADISON...AND COULD BE A RAIN/SNOW
MIX. BY MONDAY...INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW COUPLED WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF THE FIRST MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF AHEAD OF THE MAIN
LOW SHOULD SPREAD A BAND OF RAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING
THE DAY. TEMPS WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP IT ALL RAIN...EXCEPT
FOR A POTENTIAL RAIN/SNOW MIX NORTH OF MADISON EARLY.

THERE SHOULD BE A DIMINISHING TREND IN PRECIP MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY AS THE SFC LOW SPLITS...WITH ONE LOW CENTER MOVING OFF
INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN WHILE SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT OCCURS OVER
THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. TEMPS WILL STILL BE WARM
ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN UP TO THIS POINT. IN FACT TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB
INTO THE 40S ON TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THIS TIME. THE MODELS
HAVE YET TO CONVERGE ON A SIMILAR TRACK...VERY TYPICAL AT THIS
STAGE. THE GFS OPERATIONAL RUN...WHICH IS AN OUTLIER TO THE GFS
ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS...PRODUCES PLENTY OF SNOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WOULD HAVE BIG
IMPACT. HOWEVER...AS MENTIONED...THIS IS A BIG OUTLIER TO THE
ENSEMBLES WHICH SUGGEST A SOLUTION CLOSER TO THE ECMWF IS A HIGHER
PROBABILITY. THE ECMWF TAKES THE LOW FROM THE OHIO/IND BORDER TO
NRN LAKE HURON VCNTY. THIS WOULD KEEP MOST OF THE HIGHER PRECIP
MUCH FARTHER EAST...GIVING OUR AREA ABOUT AN INCH OF SNOW. THE
CANADIAN GEM IS...AGAIN...IN BETWEEN THESE TWO. AT THIS POINT THE
CONSENSUS APPROACH IS BEST AND IT GIVES ABOUT 3-4 INCHES OF SNOW
ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN CHRISTMAS EVE...DRYING OUT ON CHRISTMAS.
SO...A WHITE CHRISTMAS IS STILL POSSIBLE. THE BIGGEST TRAVEL
CONCERNS WILL BE CHRISTMAS EVE...ESPECIALLY IF YOU/RE TRAVELING
EAST AND NORTH OF THE AREA.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

ANOTHER WEAK LOW...ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER PACIFIC NORTHWEST
SHORT WAVE...WILL ARRIVE ON FRIDAY AND COULD BRING US ANOTHER
ROUND OF SNOW. THIS IS A FAST MOVER...SO ACCUMS SHOULD STAY FAIRLY
LOW. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY
MOVES IN. WE MIGHT SEE SOME SUNSHINE...BUT TEMPS WILL BE MUCH
COOLER.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST
INTO LWR MI. WIDESPREAD VERY LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES EXPECTED TO PERSIST
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS IN THE EASTERN CWA. LITTLE IF ANY
ACCUMULATION. REMAINING VFR CIGS WILL LIKELY TRANSITION TO MVFR AS
THE AFTERNOON WEARS ON. SREF CIG PRBS INDICATE INCREASE POTENTIAL
FOR IFR CIGS LATER TNGT IN SC WI AND SUN MRNG WITH MVFR CIGS HANGING
ON IN THE EASTERN AREAS. WITH ISENTROPIC ASCENT INCREASING EXPECT
SOME ZL TO DVLP AFT 06Z AND LINGER INTO EARLY SUN MRNG BEFORE TMPS
MODIFY ABV FRZG. ENOUGH MID LEVEL SATURATION IN THE DENDRIDIC GROWTH
ZONE TO SUGGEST SOME SNOW MIXING IN AS WELL ON SUNDAY...BUT PRECIP
POTENTIAL BECOMES CONFINED TO NW CWA...NORTH AND NW OF TAF
SITES....ESP AFT 18Z SUNDAY.

MARINE...HOISTED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT DUE TO STRONG SSW WINDS AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE. HIGHEST WAVES WILL BE IN THE NORTHERN NEARSHORE WATERS BUT
LOOKS LIKE ALL OF THE NEARSHORE AREA WILL GET IN ON SOME OF THE
GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM SUNDAY TO 3 AM CST TUESDAY FOR
     LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HENTZ
TONIGHT/SUNDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...COLLAR
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...DAVIS




000
FXUS63 KMKX 210335
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
935 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...

700 MB RH REMAINS RATHER DRY TONIGHT. 850 MB LAYERS ARE SATURATED
BUT DRY FROM THE SOUTH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE WARM AIR ADVECTION
INCREASES. 925 MB RH INCREASES EAST LATE AND STAYS HIGH TROUGH THE
DAY. THEREFORE EXPECT STRATUS TO LOWER. MAIN CONCERN IS
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE. VERY WEAK 700 MB UPWARD MOTION UNTIL
AFTER SUNRISE. THEREFORE MAIN CONCERN OF FREEZING DRIZZLE/DRIZZLE
WILL BE AFTER SUNRISE...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL RISE. IN ADDITION
SURFACE DEWPOINTS DO NOT SATURATE SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY HEADLINES
AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...

700 MB RH REMAINS RATHER DRY TONIGHT. 850 MB LAYERS ARE SATURATED
BUT DRY FROM THE SOUTH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE WARM AIR ADVECTION
INCREASES. 925 MB RH INCREASES EAST LATE AND STAYS HIGH TROUGH THE
DAY. THEREFORE EXPECT STRATUS TO LOWER EAST WITH MVFR CIGS
BECOMING IFR ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...WITH SOME LIFR SUNDAY
MORNING. MAIN CONCERN IS DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE. VERY WEAK 700
MB UPWARD MOTION UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE. THEREFORE MAIN CONCERN OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE/DRIZZLE WILL BE AFTER SUNRISE...BUT TEMPERATURES
WILL RISE. IN ADDITION SURFACE DEWPOINTS DO NOT SATURATE SO DO NOT
EXPECT ANY HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO PULL EAST WITH WIDESPREAD VERY LIGHT...LOW
DBZ RETURNS. PRECIP EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. MID LEVELS THEN BECOME RATHER BROADLY ANTICYCLONIC. KEY FOR
ANY ADDITIONAL FORCING WILL BE LARGELY IN THE LOW LAYERS. THIS WILL
BE CAUSED BY TIGHTENING BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH INCREASING CROSS-
ISOTHERMAL FLOW...ISENTROPIC LIFT. MOISTURE DEPTH IS LIMITED AND SO
THE LAYERS THAT ARE MOIST MAY SQUEEZE OUT SOME FZDZ OR SLEET LATER
IN THE NIGHT INTO EARLY. QUESTION IS THERE AS TO WHETHER THE
SOUNDINGS ARE JUST TOO MOIST RESULTING IN THE TRACE/LIGHT QPF
GENERATION BUT THERE IS THE DECENT ISENTROPIC LIFT SIGNAL SO WILL
KEEP THE LOW MOS POPS GOING. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW THE DRY AIR ALOFT
WHICH KEEPS THE DENDRIDIC GROWTH ZONE FREE OF SATURATION WHICH
LIMITS THE INTRODUCTION OF ICE INTO THE COLUMN.  MODEL QPF OUTPUT
KEYS ON SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWEST CWA AFTER 6Z...AND THEN THE WESTERN
1/2 TO 2/3RDS FOR 12Z-18Z SUNDAY. SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY AIRFLOW WILL
ALLOW FOR CONTINUED WARMING OF THE AIRMASS THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER
SUBZERO 850 TEMPS WILL LINGER ESP ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CWA SO WILL
KEEP POTENTIAL OF A LIGHT RAIN/LIGHT SNOW MIX GOING THERE.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

STRONG SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL PUSH OUT OF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST INTO THE NRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS BY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL SUBSEQUENTLY FORM FROM THE
DAKOTAS...STRETCHING SOUTH THROUGH OKLAHOMA DURING THIS SAME TIME.
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...ANY PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE SMALL AND
LIMITED TO AREAS MOSTLY WEST OF MADISON...AND COULD BE A RAIN/SNOW
MIX. BY MONDAY...INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW COUPLED WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF THE FIRST MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF AHEAD OF THE MAIN
LOW SHOULD SPREAD A BAND OF RAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING
THE DAY. TEMPS WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP IT ALL RAIN...EXCEPT
FOR A POTENTIAL RAIN/SNOW MIX NORTH OF MADISON EARLY.

THERE SHOULD BE A DIMINISHING TREND IN PRECIP MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY AS THE SFC LOW SPLITS...WITH ONE LOW CENTER MOVING OFF
INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN WHILE SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT OCCURS OVER
THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. TEMPS WILL STILL BE WARM
ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN UP TO THIS POINT. IN FACT TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB
INTO THE 40S ON TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THIS TIME. THE MODELS
HAVE YET TO CONVERGE ON A SIMILAR TRACK...VERY TYPICAL AT THIS
STAGE. THE GFS OPERATIONAL RUN...WHICH IS AN OUTLIER TO THE GFS
ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS...PRODUCES PLENTY OF SNOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WOULD HAVE BIG
IMPACT. HOWEVER...AS MENTIONED...THIS IS A BIG OUTLIER TO THE
ENSEMBLES WHICH SUGGEST A SOLUTION CLOSER TO THE ECMWF IS A HIGHER
PROBABILITY. THE ECMWF TAKES THE LOW FROM THE OHIO/IND BORDER TO
NRN LAKE HURON VCNTY. THIS WOULD KEEP MOST OF THE HIGHER PRECIP
MUCH FARTHER EAST...GIVING OUR AREA ABOUT AN INCH OF SNOW. THE
CANADIAN GEM IS...AGAIN...IN BETWEEN THESE TWO. AT THIS POINT THE
CONSENSUS APPROACH IS BEST AND IT GIVES ABOUT 3-4 INCHES OF SNOW
ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN CHRISTMAS EVE...DRYING OUT ON CHRISTMAS.
SO...A WHITE CHRISTMAS IS STILL POSSIBLE. THE BIGGEST TRAVEL
CONCERNS WILL BE CHRISTMAS EVE...ESPECIALLY IF YOU/RE TRAVELING
EAST AND NORTH OF THE AREA.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

ANOTHER WEAK LOW...ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER PACIFIC NORTHWEST
SHORT WAVE...WILL ARRIVE ON FRIDAY AND COULD BRING US ANOTHER
ROUND OF SNOW. THIS IS A FAST MOVER...SO ACCUMS SHOULD STAY FAIRLY
LOW. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY
MOVES IN. WE MIGHT SEE SOME SUNSHINE...BUT TEMPS WILL BE MUCH
COOLER.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST
INTO LWR MI. WIDESPREAD VERY LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES EXPECTED TO PERSIST
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS IN THE EASTERN CWA. LITTLE IF ANY
ACCUMULATION. REMAINING VFR CIGS WILL LIKELY TRANSITION TO MVFR AS
THE AFTERNOON WEARS ON. SREF CIG PRBS INDICATE INCREASE POTENTIAL
FOR IFR CIGS LATER TNGT IN SC WI AND SUN MRNG WITH MVFR CIGS HANGING
ON IN THE EASTERN AREAS. WITH ISENTROPIC ASCENT INCREASING EXPECT
SOME ZL TO DVLP AFT 06Z AND LINGER INTO EARLY SUN MRNG BEFORE TMPS
MODIFY ABV FRZG. ENOUGH MID LEVEL SATURATION IN THE DENDRIDIC GROWTH
ZONE TO SUGGEST SOME SNOW MIXING IN AS WELL ON SUNDAY...BUT PRECIP
POTENTIAL BECOMES CONFINED TO NW CWA...NORTH AND NW OF TAF
SITES....ESP AFT 18Z SUNDAY.

MARINE...HOISTED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT DUE TO STRONG SSW WINDS AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE. HIGHEST WAVES WILL BE IN THE NORTHERN NEARSHORE WATERS BUT
LOOKS LIKE ALL OF THE NEARSHORE AREA WILL GET IN ON SOME OF THE
GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM SUNDAY TO 3 AM CST TUESDAY FOR
     LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HENTZ
TONIGHT/SUNDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...COLLAR
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...DAVIS





000
FXUS63 KMKX 202055
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
255 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.REST OF THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO PULL EAST WITH WIDESPREAD VERY LIGHT...LOW
DBZ RETURNS. PRECIP EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. MID LEVELS THEN BECOME RATHER BROADLY ANTICYCLONIC. KEY FOR
ANY ADDITIONAL FORCING WILL BE LARGELY IN THE LOW LAYERS. THIS WILL
BE CAUSED BY TIGHTENING BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH INCREASING CROSS-
ISOTHERMAL FLOW...ISENTROPIC LIFT. MOISTURE DEPTH IS LIMITED AND SO
THE LAYERS THAT ARE MOIST MAY SQUEEZE OUT SOME FZDZ OR SLEET LATER
IN THE NIGHT INTO EARLY. QUESTION IS THERE AS TO WHETHER THE
SOUNDINGS ARE JUST TOO MOIST RESULTING IN THE TRACE/LIGHT QPF
GENERATION BUT THERE IS THE DECENT ISENTROPIC LIFT SIGNAL SO WILL
KEEP THE LOW MOS POPS GOING. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW THE DRY AIR ALOFT
WHICH KEEPS THE DENDRIDIC GROWTH ZONE FREE OF SATURATION WHICH
LIMITS THE INTRODUCTION OF ICE INTO THE COLUMN.  MODEL QPF OUTPUT
KEYS ON SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWEST CWA AFTER 6Z...AND THEN THE WESTERN
1/2 TO 2/3RDS FOR 12Z-18Z SUNDAY. SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY AIRFLOW WILL
ALLOW FOR CONTINUED WARMING OF THE AIRMASS THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER
SUBZERO 850 TEMPS WILL LINGER ESP ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CWA SO WILL
KEEP POTENTIAL OF A LIGHT RAIN/LIGHT SNOW MIX GOING THERE.

.SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

STRONG SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL PUSH OUT OF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST INTO THE NRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS BY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL SUBSEQUENTLY FORM FROM THE
DAKOTAS...STRETCHING SOUTH THROUGH OKLAHOMA DURING THIS SAME TIME.
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...ANY PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE SMALL AND
LIMITED TO AREAS MOSTLY WEST OF MADISON...AND COULD BE A RAIN/SNOW
MIX. BY MONDAY...INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW COUPLED WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF THE FIRST MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF AHEAD OF THE MAIN
LOW SHOULD SPREAD A BAND OF RAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING
THE DAY. TEMPS WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP IT ALL RAIN...EXCEPT
FOR A POTENTIAL RAIN/SNOW MIX NORTH OF MADISON EARLY.

THERE SHOULD BE A DIMINISHING TREND IN PRECIP MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY AS THE SFC LOW SPLITS...WITH ONE LOW CENTER MOVING OFF
INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN WHILE SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT OCCURS OVER
THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. TEMPS WILL STILL BE WARM
ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN UP TO THIS POINT. IN FACT TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB
INTO THE 40S ON TUESDAY.

.WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THIS TIME. THE MODELS
HAVE YET TO CONVERGE ON A SIMILAR TRACK...VERY TYPICAL AT THIS
STAGE. THE GFS OPERATIONAL RUN...WHICH IS AN OUTLIER TO THE GFS
ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS...PRODUCES PLENTY OF SNOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WOULD HAVE BIG
IMPACT. HOWEVER...AS MENTIONED...THIS IS A BIG OUTLIER TO THE
ENSEMBLES WHICH SUGGEST A SOLUTION CLOSER TO THE ECMWF IS A HIGHER
PROBABILITY. THE ECMWF TAKES THE LOW FROM THE OHIO/IND BORDER TO
NRN LAKE HURON VCNTY. THIS WOULD KEEP MOST OF THE HIGHER PRECIP
MUCH FARTHER EAST...GIVING OUR AREA ABOUT AN INCH OF SNOW. THE
CANADIAN GEM IS...AGAIN...IN BETWEEN THESE TWO. AT THIS POINT THE
CONSENSUS APPROACH IS BEST AND IT GIVES ABOUT 3-4 INCHES OF SNOW
ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN CHRISTMAS EVE...DRYING OUT ON CHRISTMAS.
SO...A WHITE CHRISTMAS IS STILL POSSIBLE. THE BIGGEST TRAVEL
CONCERNS WILL BE CHRISTMAS EVE...ESPECIALLY IF YOU/RE TRAVELING
EAST AND NORTH OF THE AREA.

.FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

ANOTHER WEAK LOW...ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER PACIFIC NORTHWEST
SHORT WAVE...WILL ARRIVE ON FRIDAY AND COULD BRING US ANOTHER
ROUND OF SNOW. THIS IS A FAST MOVER...SO ACCUMS SHOULD STAY FAIRLY
LOW. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY
MOVES IN. WE MIGHT SEE SOME SUNSHINE...BUT TEMPS WILL BE MUCH
COOLER.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST
INTO LWR MI. WIDESPREAD VERY LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES EXPECTED TO PERSIST
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS IN THE EASTERN CWA. LITTLE IF ANY
ACCUMULATION. REMAINING VFR CIGS WILL LIKELY TRANSITION TO MVFR AS
THE AFTERNOON WEARS ON. SREF CIG PRBS INDICATE INCREASE POTENTIAL
FOR IFR CIGS LATER TNGT IN SC WI AND SUN MRNG WITH MVFR CIGS HANGING
ON IN THE EASTERN AREAS. WITH ISENTROPIC ASCENT INCREASING EXPECT
SOME ZL TO DVLP AFT 06Z AND LINGER INTO EARLY SUN MRNG BEFORE TMPS
MODIFY ABV FRZG. ENOUGH MID LEVEL SATURATION IN THE DENDRIDIC GROWTH
ZONE TO SUGGEST SOME SNOW MIXING IN AS WELL ON SUNDAY...BUT PRECIP
POTENTIAL BECOMES CONFINED TO NW CWA...NORTH AND NW OF TAF
SITES....ESP AFT 18Z SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...HOISTED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT DUE TO STRONG SSW WINDS AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE. HIGHEST WAVES WILL BE IN THE NORTHERN NEARSHORE WATERS BUT
LOOKS LIKE ALL OF THE NEARSHORE AREA WILL GET IN ON SOME OF THE
GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM SUNDAY TO 3 AM CST TUESDAY FOR
     LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

TONIGHT/SUNDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...COLLAR
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...DAVIS




000
FXUS63 KMKX 202055
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
255 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.REST OF THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO PULL EAST WITH WIDESPREAD VERY LIGHT...LOW
DBZ RETURNS. PRECIP EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. MID LEVELS THEN BECOME RATHER BROADLY ANTICYCLONIC. KEY FOR
ANY ADDITIONAL FORCING WILL BE LARGELY IN THE LOW LAYERS. THIS WILL
BE CAUSED BY TIGHTENING BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH INCREASING CROSS-
ISOTHERMAL FLOW...ISENTROPIC LIFT. MOISTURE DEPTH IS LIMITED AND SO
THE LAYERS THAT ARE MOIST MAY SQUEEZE OUT SOME FZDZ OR SLEET LATER
IN THE NIGHT INTO EARLY. QUESTION IS THERE AS TO WHETHER THE
SOUNDINGS ARE JUST TOO MOIST RESULTING IN THE TRACE/LIGHT QPF
GENERATION BUT THERE IS THE DECENT ISENTROPIC LIFT SIGNAL SO WILL
KEEP THE LOW MOS POPS GOING. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW THE DRY AIR ALOFT
WHICH KEEPS THE DENDRIDIC GROWTH ZONE FREE OF SATURATION WHICH
LIMITS THE INTRODUCTION OF ICE INTO THE COLUMN.  MODEL QPF OUTPUT
KEYS ON SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWEST CWA AFTER 6Z...AND THEN THE WESTERN
1/2 TO 2/3RDS FOR 12Z-18Z SUNDAY. SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY AIRFLOW WILL
ALLOW FOR CONTINUED WARMING OF THE AIRMASS THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER
SUBZERO 850 TEMPS WILL LINGER ESP ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CWA SO WILL
KEEP POTENTIAL OF A LIGHT RAIN/LIGHT SNOW MIX GOING THERE.

.SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

STRONG SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL PUSH OUT OF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST INTO THE NRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS BY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL SUBSEQUENTLY FORM FROM THE
DAKOTAS...STRETCHING SOUTH THROUGH OKLAHOMA DURING THIS SAME TIME.
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...ANY PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE SMALL AND
LIMITED TO AREAS MOSTLY WEST OF MADISON...AND COULD BE A RAIN/SNOW
MIX. BY MONDAY...INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW COUPLED WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF THE FIRST MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF AHEAD OF THE MAIN
LOW SHOULD SPREAD A BAND OF RAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING
THE DAY. TEMPS WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP IT ALL RAIN...EXCEPT
FOR A POTENTIAL RAIN/SNOW MIX NORTH OF MADISON EARLY.

THERE SHOULD BE A DIMINISHING TREND IN PRECIP MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY AS THE SFC LOW SPLITS...WITH ONE LOW CENTER MOVING OFF
INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN WHILE SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT OCCURS OVER
THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. TEMPS WILL STILL BE WARM
ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN UP TO THIS POINT. IN FACT TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB
INTO THE 40S ON TUESDAY.

.WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THIS TIME. THE MODELS
HAVE YET TO CONVERGE ON A SIMILAR TRACK...VERY TYPICAL AT THIS
STAGE. THE GFS OPERATIONAL RUN...WHICH IS AN OUTLIER TO THE GFS
ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS...PRODUCES PLENTY OF SNOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WOULD HAVE BIG
IMPACT. HOWEVER...AS MENTIONED...THIS IS A BIG OUTLIER TO THE
ENSEMBLES WHICH SUGGEST A SOLUTION CLOSER TO THE ECMWF IS A HIGHER
PROBABILITY. THE ECMWF TAKES THE LOW FROM THE OHIO/IND BORDER TO
NRN LAKE HURON VCNTY. THIS WOULD KEEP MOST OF THE HIGHER PRECIP
MUCH FARTHER EAST...GIVING OUR AREA ABOUT AN INCH OF SNOW. THE
CANADIAN GEM IS...AGAIN...IN BETWEEN THESE TWO. AT THIS POINT THE
CONSENSUS APPROACH IS BEST AND IT GIVES ABOUT 3-4 INCHES OF SNOW
ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN CHRISTMAS EVE...DRYING OUT ON CHRISTMAS.
SO...A WHITE CHRISTMAS IS STILL POSSIBLE. THE BIGGEST TRAVEL
CONCERNS WILL BE CHRISTMAS EVE...ESPECIALLY IF YOU/RE TRAVELING
EAST AND NORTH OF THE AREA.

.FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

ANOTHER WEAK LOW...ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER PACIFIC NORTHWEST
SHORT WAVE...WILL ARRIVE ON FRIDAY AND COULD BRING US ANOTHER
ROUND OF SNOW. THIS IS A FAST MOVER...SO ACCUMS SHOULD STAY FAIRLY
LOW. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY
MOVES IN. WE MIGHT SEE SOME SUNSHINE...BUT TEMPS WILL BE MUCH
COOLER.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST
INTO LWR MI. WIDESPREAD VERY LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES EXPECTED TO PERSIST
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS IN THE EASTERN CWA. LITTLE IF ANY
ACCUMULATION. REMAINING VFR CIGS WILL LIKELY TRANSITION TO MVFR AS
THE AFTERNOON WEARS ON. SREF CIG PRBS INDICATE INCREASE POTENTIAL
FOR IFR CIGS LATER TNGT IN SC WI AND SUN MRNG WITH MVFR CIGS HANGING
ON IN THE EASTERN AREAS. WITH ISENTROPIC ASCENT INCREASING EXPECT
SOME ZL TO DVLP AFT 06Z AND LINGER INTO EARLY SUN MRNG BEFORE TMPS
MODIFY ABV FRZG. ENOUGH MID LEVEL SATURATION IN THE DENDRIDIC GROWTH
ZONE TO SUGGEST SOME SNOW MIXING IN AS WELL ON SUNDAY...BUT PRECIP
POTENTIAL BECOMES CONFINED TO NW CWA...NORTH AND NW OF TAF
SITES....ESP AFT 18Z SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...HOISTED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT DUE TO STRONG SSW WINDS AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE. HIGHEST WAVES WILL BE IN THE NORTHERN NEARSHORE WATERS BUT
LOOKS LIKE ALL OF THE NEARSHORE AREA WILL GET IN ON SOME OF THE
GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM SUNDAY TO 3 AM CST TUESDAY FOR
     LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

TONIGHT/SUNDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...COLLAR
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...DAVIS





000
FXUS63 KMKX 201650
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1050 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST
FROM NRN IL. AREA OF ENHANCED COLDER TOPS OVR ERN WI ASSOC WITH
DEF ZONE. REMAINING VFR CIGS WILL LIKELY TRANSITION TO MVFR AS THE
AFTERNOON WEARS ON. SREF CIG PRBS INDICATE INCREASE POTENTIAL FOR
IFR CIGS LATER TNGT IN SC WI AND SUN MRNG WITH MVFR CIGS HANGING
ON IN THE EASTERN AREAS. WITH ISENTROPIC ASCENT INCREASING EXPECT
SOME ZL TO DVLP AFT 06Z AND LINGER INTO EARLY SUN MRNG BEFORE
TMPS MODIFY ABV FRZG. ENOUGH MID LEVEL SATURATION IN THE DENDRIDIC
GROWTH ZONE TO SUGGEST SOME SNOW MIXING IN AS WELL ON SUNDAY. ANY
LINGERING PRECIP LIKELY CONFINED TO NW CWA AFT 18Z SUNDAY.

PC

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SW IA WILL MOVE ACROSS NRN IL TODAY. VERY
LIGHT SNOW HAS DEVELOPED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WI AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE
AND EXPECT THE SNOW TO MOVE EAST AND CONTINUE. THE SNOW WILL
DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH A DUSTING
EXPECTED.

SLY FLOW WILL THEN DEVELOP TNT AS A BROAD N-S SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. A FOCUSED AREA OF 925-850 MB
WARM ADVECTION AND FRONTOGENESIS WILL MOVE FROM SW TO NE ACROSS SRN
WI LATE TNT INTO SUN AM. FCST SOUNDINGS AND THERMAL/MOISTURE
PROFILES SUGGEST FREEZING DRIZZLE WITH HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL WI. THUS EXPECTING A LIGHT COATING OF ICE TO FORM ON
SURFACES LATE TNT. A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

WARM ADVECTION ALOFT ALONG WITH A SHORTWAVE WILL PRODUCE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY. THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE REMAINS PRECIP
TYPE. OVERALL TEMP PROFILE LOOKS LIKE SNOW IN THE MORNING...WITH
RAIN/SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT SOUNDINGS SHOW A LOSS OF ICE
CRYSTALS AT TIMES...LEADING TO POSSIBLE DRIZZLE. ALONG WITH SNOW
CHANCES...MENTIONED FREEZING DRIZZLE SUNDAY MORNING WHILE SURFACE
TEMPS REMAIN BELOW FREEZING.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

A NEARLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY. CONSENSUS OF MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST
THAT BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
A STRONG SHORTWAVE LIFTS THROUGH. LOOKS LIKE MAINLY RAIN FOR THIS
FIRST EVENT.

MODELS THEN STRENGTHEN AND DIG THE UPPER TROUGH FARTHER SOUTH
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AS A SECOND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM RAPIDLY DEEPENS AND LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
MODELS ARE STILL TRYING TO FIGURE THIS ONE OUT. SOLUTIONS RANGE
FROM THE FARTHER ECMWF WHICH BRINGS LITTLE TO NO SNOW TO SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN...TO THE GFS WHICH SUGGESTS SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW FOR
THE FORECAST AREA...PARTICULARY THE EASTERN HALF. THE CANADIAN IS
MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS. OBVIOUSLY A LOT OF TIME FOR THIS
COMPLEX SITUATION TO CHANGE...BUT DEFINITELY SOMETHING TO KEEP AN
EYE ON.

DRY WEATHER IS THEN FORECAST FOR CHRISTMAS BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST FOR FRIDAY...WITH
PRETTY BIG DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF. THE GFS IS FAR
MORE PROGRESSIVE...SLIDING A SHORTWAVE THROUGH QUICKLY AND
BRINGING A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO SHOW A DEEPER
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND CONSEQUENTLY A STRONG SURFACE LOW. THE
CURRENT ECMWF TRACK WOULD MAINLY SNOW NORTHWEST...WITH A RAIN/SNOW
MIX SOUTHEAST. NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE IN EITHER SOLUTION AT THIS
POINT.

AFTER MILDER TEMPS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK...SHOULD SEE
HIGHS BACK AROUND NORMAL BY CHRISTMAS.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING ACROSS NRN IL TODAY
WILL RESULT IN VERY LIGHT SNOW...CONTINUED CIGS OF 1.0-3.0 KFT...AND
VSBYS OF 3-5 MILES AT TIMES. THE SNOW WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS SRN WI DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. SLY FLOW WILL THEN
DEVELOP LATE TNT AND A PUSH OF RELATIVELY MILD AND MOIST AIR ALOFT
WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE. THERE IS A FAIRLY HIGH
CONFIDENCE OF A LIGHT COATING OF ICE ACCUMULATION ON SURFACES OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL WI WITH A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAINTY OVER SE WI AT THIS
TIME. CIGS WILL LOWER FOR LATE TNT AND SUN AM FROM 600 FEET TO
2000 FEET WITH VSBYS OF 2-5SM.

MARINE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON
INTO MONDAY EVENING. BRISK SLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP AS LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE NRN PLAINS. THE SLY FETCH WILL LIKELY GENERATE
HIGH WAVES FROM PORT WASHINGTON NORTHWARD.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...GEHRING
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DDV





000
FXUS63 KMKX 201650
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1050 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST
FROM NRN IL. AREA OF ENHANCED COLDER TOPS OVR ERN WI ASSOC WITH
DEF ZONE. REMAINING VFR CIGS WILL LIKELY TRANSITION TO MVFR AS THE
AFTERNOON WEARS ON. SREF CIG PRBS INDICATE INCREASE POTENTIAL FOR
IFR CIGS LATER TNGT IN SC WI AND SUN MRNG WITH MVFR CIGS HANGING
ON IN THE EASTERN AREAS. WITH ISENTROPIC ASCENT INCREASING EXPECT
SOME ZL TO DVLP AFT 06Z AND LINGER INTO EARLY SUN MRNG BEFORE
TMPS MODIFY ABV FRZG. ENOUGH MID LEVEL SATURATION IN THE DENDRIDIC
GROWTH ZONE TO SUGGEST SOME SNOW MIXING IN AS WELL ON SUNDAY. ANY
LINGERING PRECIP LIKELY CONFINED TO NW CWA AFT 18Z SUNDAY.

PC

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SW IA WILL MOVE ACROSS NRN IL TODAY. VERY
LIGHT SNOW HAS DEVELOPED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WI AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE
AND EXPECT THE SNOW TO MOVE EAST AND CONTINUE. THE SNOW WILL
DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH A DUSTING
EXPECTED.

SLY FLOW WILL THEN DEVELOP TNT AS A BROAD N-S SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. A FOCUSED AREA OF 925-850 MB
WARM ADVECTION AND FRONTOGENESIS WILL MOVE FROM SW TO NE ACROSS SRN
WI LATE TNT INTO SUN AM. FCST SOUNDINGS AND THERMAL/MOISTURE
PROFILES SUGGEST FREEZING DRIZZLE WITH HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL WI. THUS EXPECTING A LIGHT COATING OF ICE TO FORM ON
SURFACES LATE TNT. A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

WARM ADVECTION ALOFT ALONG WITH A SHORTWAVE WILL PRODUCE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY. THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE REMAINS PRECIP
TYPE. OVERALL TEMP PROFILE LOOKS LIKE SNOW IN THE MORNING...WITH
RAIN/SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT SOUNDINGS SHOW A LOSS OF ICE
CRYSTALS AT TIMES...LEADING TO POSSIBLE DRIZZLE. ALONG WITH SNOW
CHANCES...MENTIONED FREEZING DRIZZLE SUNDAY MORNING WHILE SURFACE
TEMPS REMAIN BELOW FREEZING.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

A NEARLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY. CONSENSUS OF MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST
THAT BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
A STRONG SHORTWAVE LIFTS THROUGH. LOOKS LIKE MAINLY RAIN FOR THIS
FIRST EVENT.

MODELS THEN STRENGTHEN AND DIG THE UPPER TROUGH FARTHER SOUTH
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AS A SECOND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM RAPIDLY DEEPENS AND LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
MODELS ARE STILL TRYING TO FIGURE THIS ONE OUT. SOLUTIONS RANGE
FROM THE FARTHER ECMWF WHICH BRINGS LITTLE TO NO SNOW TO SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN...TO THE GFS WHICH SUGGESTS SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW FOR
THE FORECAST AREA...PARTICULARY THE EASTERN HALF. THE CANADIAN IS
MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS. OBVIOUSLY A LOT OF TIME FOR THIS
COMPLEX SITUATION TO CHANGE...BUT DEFINITELY SOMETHING TO KEEP AN
EYE ON.

DRY WEATHER IS THEN FORECAST FOR CHRISTMAS BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST FOR FRIDAY...WITH
PRETTY BIG DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF. THE GFS IS FAR
MORE PROGRESSIVE...SLIDING A SHORTWAVE THROUGH QUICKLY AND
BRINGING A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO SHOW A DEEPER
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND CONSEQUENTLY A STRONG SURFACE LOW. THE
CURRENT ECMWF TRACK WOULD MAINLY SNOW NORTHWEST...WITH A RAIN/SNOW
MIX SOUTHEAST. NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE IN EITHER SOLUTION AT THIS
POINT.

AFTER MILDER TEMPS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK...SHOULD SEE
HIGHS BACK AROUND NORMAL BY CHRISTMAS.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING ACROSS NRN IL TODAY
WILL RESULT IN VERY LIGHT SNOW...CONTINUED CIGS OF 1.0-3.0 KFT...AND
VSBYS OF 3-5 MILES AT TIMES. THE SNOW WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS SRN WI DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. SLY FLOW WILL THEN
DEVELOP LATE TNT AND A PUSH OF RELATIVELY MILD AND MOIST AIR ALOFT
WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE. THERE IS A FAIRLY HIGH
CONFIDENCE OF A LIGHT COATING OF ICE ACCUMULATION ON SURFACES OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL WI WITH A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAINTY OVER SE WI AT THIS
TIME. CIGS WILL LOWER FOR LATE TNT AND SUN AM FROM 600 FEET TO
2000 FEET WITH VSBYS OF 2-5SM.

MARINE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON
INTO MONDAY EVENING. BRISK SLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP AS LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE NRN PLAINS. THE SLY FETCH WILL LIKELY GENERATE
HIGH WAVES FROM PORT WASHINGTON NORTHWARD.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...GEHRING
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DDV




000
FXUS63 KMKX 200948
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
348 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SW IA WILL MOVE ACROSS NRN IL TODAY. VERY
LIGHT SNOW HAS DEVELOPED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WI AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE
AND EXPECT THE SNOW TO MOVE EAST AND CONTINUE. THE SNOW WILL
DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH A DUSTING
EXPECTED.

SLY FLOW WILL THEN DEVELOP TNT AS A BROAD N-S SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. A FOCUSED AREA OF 925-850 MB
WARM ADVECTION AND FRONTOGENESIS WILL MOVE FROM SW TO NE ACROSS SRN
WI LATE TNT INTO SUN AM. FCST SOUNDINGS AND THERMAL/MOISTURE
PROFILES SUGGEST FREEZING DRIZZLE WITH HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL WI. THUS EXPECTING A LIGHT COATING OF ICE TO FORM ON
SURFACES LATE TNT. A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

.SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

WARM ADVECTION ALOFT ALONG WITH A SHORTWAVE WILL PRODUCE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY. THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE REMAINS PRECIP
TYPE. OVERALL TEMP PROFILE LOOKS LIKE SNOW IN THE MORNING...WITH
RAIN/SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT SOUNDINGS SHOW A LOSS OF ICE
CRYSTALS AT TIMES...LEADING TO POSSIBLE DRIZZLE. ALONG WITH SNOW
CHANCES...MENTIONED FREEZING DRIZZLE SUNDAY MORNING WHILE SURFACE
TEMPS REMAIN BELOW FREEZING.

.MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

A NEARLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY. CONSENSUS OF MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST
THAT BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
A STRONG SHORTWAVE LIFTS THROUGH. LOOKS LIKE MAINLY RAIN FOR THIS
FIRST EVENT.

MODELS THEN STRENGTHEN AND DIG THE UPPER TROUGH FARTHER SOUTH
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AS A SECOND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM RAPIDLY DEEPENS AND LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
MODELS ARE STILL TRYING TO FIGURE THIS ONE OUT. SOLUTIONS RANGE
FROM THE FARTHER ECMWF WHICH BRINGS LITTLE TO NO SNOW TO SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN...TO THE GFS WHICH SUGGESTS SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW FOR
THE FORECAST AREA...PARTICULARY THE EASTERN HALF. THE CANADIAN IS
MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS. OBVIOUSLY A LOT OF TIME FOR THIS
COMPLEX SITUATION TO CHANGE...BUT DEFINITELY SOMETHING TO KEEP AN
EYE ON.

DRY WEATHER IS THEN FORECAST FOR CHRISTMAS BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST FOR FRIDAY...WITH
PRETTY BIG DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF. THE GFS IS FAR
MORE PROGRESSIVE...SLIDING A SHORTWAVE THROUGH QUICKLY AND
BRINGING A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO SHOW A DEEPER
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND CONSEQUENTLY A STRONG SURFACE LOW. THE
CURRENT ECMWF TRACK WOULD MAINLY SNOW NORTHWEST...WITH A RAIN/SNOW
MIX SOUTHEAST. NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE IN EITHER SOLUTION AT THIS
POINT.

AFTER MILDER TEMPS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK...SHOULD SEE
HIGHS BACK AROUND NORMAL BY CHRISTMAS.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING ACROSS NRN IL TODAY
WILL RESULT IN VERY LIGHT SNOW...CONTINUED CIGS OF 1.0-3.0 KFT...AND
VSBYS OF 3-5 MILES AT TIMES. THE SNOW WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS SRN WI DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. SLY FLOW WILL THEN
DEVELOP LATE TNT AND A PUSH OF RELATIVELY MILD AND MOIST AIR ALOFT
WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE. THERE IS A FAIRLY HIGH
CONFIDENCE OF A LIGHT COATING OF ICE ACCUMULATION ON SURFACES OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL WI WITH A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAINTY OVER SE WI AT THIS
TIME. CIGS WILL LOWER FOR LATE TNT AND SUN AM FROM 600 FEET TO
2000 FEET WITH VSBYS OF 2-5SM.

&&

.MARINE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON
INTO MONDAY EVENING. BRISK SLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP AS LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE NRN PLAINS. THE SLY FETCH WILL LIKELY GENERATE
HIGH WAVES FROM PORT WASHINGTON NORTHWARD.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...GEHRING
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DDV





000
FXUS63 KMKX 200948
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
348 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SW IA WILL MOVE ACROSS NRN IL TODAY. VERY
LIGHT SNOW HAS DEVELOPED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WI AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE
AND EXPECT THE SNOW TO MOVE EAST AND CONTINUE. THE SNOW WILL
DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH A DUSTING
EXPECTED.

SLY FLOW WILL THEN DEVELOP TNT AS A BROAD N-S SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. A FOCUSED AREA OF 925-850 MB
WARM ADVECTION AND FRONTOGENESIS WILL MOVE FROM SW TO NE ACROSS SRN
WI LATE TNT INTO SUN AM. FCST SOUNDINGS AND THERMAL/MOISTURE
PROFILES SUGGEST FREEZING DRIZZLE WITH HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL WI. THUS EXPECTING A LIGHT COATING OF ICE TO FORM ON
SURFACES LATE TNT. A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

.SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

WARM ADVECTION ALOFT ALONG WITH A SHORTWAVE WILL PRODUCE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY. THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE REMAINS PRECIP
TYPE. OVERALL TEMP PROFILE LOOKS LIKE SNOW IN THE MORNING...WITH
RAIN/SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT SOUNDINGS SHOW A LOSS OF ICE
CRYSTALS AT TIMES...LEADING TO POSSIBLE DRIZZLE. ALONG WITH SNOW
CHANCES...MENTIONED FREEZING DRIZZLE SUNDAY MORNING WHILE SURFACE
TEMPS REMAIN BELOW FREEZING.

.MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

A NEARLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY. CONSENSUS OF MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST
THAT BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
A STRONG SHORTWAVE LIFTS THROUGH. LOOKS LIKE MAINLY RAIN FOR THIS
FIRST EVENT.

MODELS THEN STRENGTHEN AND DIG THE UPPER TROUGH FARTHER SOUTH
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AS A SECOND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM RAPIDLY DEEPENS AND LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
MODELS ARE STILL TRYING TO FIGURE THIS ONE OUT. SOLUTIONS RANGE
FROM THE FARTHER ECMWF WHICH BRINGS LITTLE TO NO SNOW TO SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN...TO THE GFS WHICH SUGGESTS SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW FOR
THE FORECAST AREA...PARTICULARY THE EASTERN HALF. THE CANADIAN IS
MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS. OBVIOUSLY A LOT OF TIME FOR THIS
COMPLEX SITUATION TO CHANGE...BUT DEFINITELY SOMETHING TO KEEP AN
EYE ON.

DRY WEATHER IS THEN FORECAST FOR CHRISTMAS BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST FOR FRIDAY...WITH
PRETTY BIG DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF. THE GFS IS FAR
MORE PROGRESSIVE...SLIDING A SHORTWAVE THROUGH QUICKLY AND
BRINGING A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO SHOW A DEEPER
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND CONSEQUENTLY A STRONG SURFACE LOW. THE
CURRENT ECMWF TRACK WOULD MAINLY SNOW NORTHWEST...WITH A RAIN/SNOW
MIX SOUTHEAST. NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE IN EITHER SOLUTION AT THIS
POINT.

AFTER MILDER TEMPS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK...SHOULD SEE
HIGHS BACK AROUND NORMAL BY CHRISTMAS.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING ACROSS NRN IL TODAY
WILL RESULT IN VERY LIGHT SNOW...CONTINUED CIGS OF 1.0-3.0 KFT...AND
VSBYS OF 3-5 MILES AT TIMES. THE SNOW WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS SRN WI DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. SLY FLOW WILL THEN
DEVELOP LATE TNT AND A PUSH OF RELATIVELY MILD AND MOIST AIR ALOFT
WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE. THERE IS A FAIRLY HIGH
CONFIDENCE OF A LIGHT COATING OF ICE ACCUMULATION ON SURFACES OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL WI WITH A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAINTY OVER SE WI AT THIS
TIME. CIGS WILL LOWER FOR LATE TNT AND SUN AM FROM 600 FEET TO
2000 FEET WITH VSBYS OF 2-5SM.

&&

.MARINE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON
INTO MONDAY EVENING. BRISK SLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP AS LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE NRN PLAINS. THE SLY FETCH WILL LIKELY GENERATE
HIGH WAVES FROM PORT WASHINGTON NORTHWARD.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...GEHRING
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DDV




000
FXUS63 KMKX 200303
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
903 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...

WILL DELAY ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE. LATEST NAM DOES NOT SATURATE THE
925 MB AND BELOW AREA AS FAST.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...

SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW
AN INVERSION AROUND 3 KFT. DURING THE NIGHT WEAK WESTERLY MIDLEVEL
FLOW WILL BE PUSHING LOW AND MIDLEVEL CLOUDS EASTWARD ACROSS
SOUTHERN WI. WILL DELAY ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE. LATEST NAM DOES NOT
SATURATE THE 925 MB AND BELOW AREA AS FAST. THERE WILL BE A RATHER
CHAOTIC MIX OF MVFR AND VFR CIGS. SOME OF THE LAKE CLOUD CIGS
WILL BE MVFR...ALONG WITH LINGERING AREAS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. AS MOISTURE INCREASES DURING THE DAY SATURDAY MORE MVFR
CIGS EXPECTED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST TONIGHT BEFORE WEAK SOUTHERLY
FLOW STARTS TO TAKE OVER ON SAT. WARM AIR ADVECTION ON SOUTHWEST
FLOW KICKS IN THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS ON SAT. ISENTROPIC LIFT AND NAM/GFS
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE SAT
MORNING. THE GREATEST CHANCE IS FROM MADISON WESTWARD WHERE
SOUNDINGS ARE MORE SATURATED. NAM MAY BE OVERDOING THE MOISTURE BUT
SINCE GFS DOES SHOW DRIZZLE POTENTIAL HAVE ADDED IT TO THE FORECAST.
SOME DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE IN SE WI DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT AS HIGH SO LEFT OUT OF FORECAST. CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH SAT.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

THE MID LEVEL FLOW UNDERGOES A TRANSITION FROM A LOW AMPLITUDE
NORTHWEST FLOW TO A HIGHER AMPLITUDE SOUTHWEST FLOW AS A CLOSED
UPPER LEVEL LOW FORMS OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY SUNDAY
NIGHT.

THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE OVERALL FLOW WILL BRING
OUR FIRST SHOT OF WARM ADVECTION THAT COULD RESULT IN SOME LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE WEST OF MADISON SATURDAY NIGHT. AS THE WARMER AND
MORE MOIST FLOW CONTINUES...COMBINED WITH SOME EJECTING SHORT WAVE
ENERGY...THE CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW
WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING. AS TEMPS WARM ON SUNDAY...ANY
FREEZING PRECIP WILL TRANSITION TO A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX...OR JUST
LIGHT RAIN. LOOK FOR THESE SMALL CHANCES TO PERSIST INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES WEST OF WISCONSIN.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

MOST OF THE MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
WESTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH TUESDAY. THE CORRESPONDING SURFACE
LOW SHOULD TRACK FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS TO SOUTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS IS A FAIRLY WARM SOLUTION WITH
MOST OF THE AREA LIKELY TO JUST SEE SOME RAIN. SOME AREAS WILL SEE
A RAIN/SNOW MIX...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF MADISON...BUT IMPACT
UP TO THIS POINT SHOULD BE MINIMAL.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

AT THIS POINT THE MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY. THERE IS LOTS OF
CHATTER OUT THERE ABOUT A RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
THAT WILL IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL. WE HAVE 3 PRIMARY MODELS TO USE
AT THIS POINT. THE GFS TRACKS AND DEEPENS THE LOW UP OVER FAR NRN
WI AND THE UPPER PENINSULA. THIS SCENARIO IS FAIRLY LOW IN IMPACT
FOR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WITH COLD ADVECTION KICKING IN LATER
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT RAIN CHANGING TO LIGHT SNOW. WE COULD SEE
AN INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION OVER A FAIRLY LONG PERIOD.

THE SECOND SOLUTION IS FROM THE EUROPEAN ECMWF MODEL. IT HAS BEEN
THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH A VERY RAPID DEEPENING...MAY REACH BOMB
STATUS...WED THROUGH WED NIGHT. THIS OCCURS FARTHER EAST...
TRACKING FROM OHIO TO LAKE HURON. THIS WOULD LIKELY HAVE EVEN
LESS IMPACT AS THE ASSOCIATED PRECIP WOULD STAY MOSTLY TO OUR
EAST. WE WOULD JUST SEE STRONG COLD ADVECTION WITH SOME VERY
STRONG/GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. SOME LIGHT SNOW WOULD BE
POSSIBLE...BUT ACCUMS WOULD BE MORE LIMITED THAN EVEN THE GFS.

THE THIRD SOLUTION IS THE CANADIAN GEM AND IT/S TRACK LOOKS LIKE
BLEND OF THE GFS AND THE ECMWF...TRACKING THE LOW OVER SOUTHWEST
LOWER MICHIGAN WITH TIME. THIS TRACK WOULD HAVE THE GREATEST
IMPACT ON SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...POTENTIALLY BRINGING HIGHER
ACCUMULATING SNOWS THAT WOULD INTRODUCE TRAVEL HAZARDS FOR
WEDNESDAY.

GIVEN THE WIDE VARIABILITY IN THE OPERATIONAL RUNS AND THE
INDIVIDUAL MODEL ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS...CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE
SOLUTION IS QUITE LOW AT THIS POINT. THE CURRENT FCST IS HEDGED
TOWARD THE GFS SINCE IT/S ENSEMBLE SUITE AND OPERATIONAL TRACK
HAVE BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT.

FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

THERE IS EVIDENCE THAT A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPMENT...WHICH MAY BE
A CLIPPER MERGING WITH SOME ENERGY FROM THE SOUTHERN
STREAM...COULD BRING US A ROUND OF SNOW THE DAY AFTER CHRISTMAS.
THAT ONE COULD BE INTERESTING.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS CONTINUE TO MOVE INLAND
OVER SE WI. DUE TO STATIONARY SURFACE FLOW...EXPECT THESE VFR CLOUDS
TO CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT AT EASTERN TAF SITES WHILE
MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD CONTINUE AT MSN. SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW AN INVERSION AROUND 3 KFT. DURING THE
NIGHT WEAK WESTERLY MIDLEVEL FLOW WILL BE PUSHING LOW AND MIDLEVEL
CLOUDS EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN WI. THIS MAY LEAD TO FREEZING
DRIZZLE OR LIGHT SNOW IN THE MORNING AT MSN AND UES AND LATE MORNING
TO EARLY AFTERNOON AT MKE AND ENW.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HENTZ
TONIGHT/SATURDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MARQUARDT
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...DAVIS




000
FXUS63 KMKX 200303
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
903 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...

WILL DELAY ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE. LATEST NAM DOES NOT SATURATE THE
925 MB AND BELOW AREA AS FAST.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...

SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW
AN INVERSION AROUND 3 KFT. DURING THE NIGHT WEAK WESTERLY MIDLEVEL
FLOW WILL BE PUSHING LOW AND MIDLEVEL CLOUDS EASTWARD ACROSS
SOUTHERN WI. WILL DELAY ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE. LATEST NAM DOES NOT
SATURATE THE 925 MB AND BELOW AREA AS FAST. THERE WILL BE A RATHER
CHAOTIC MIX OF MVFR AND VFR CIGS. SOME OF THE LAKE CLOUD CIGS
WILL BE MVFR...ALONG WITH LINGERING AREAS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. AS MOISTURE INCREASES DURING THE DAY SATURDAY MORE MVFR
CIGS EXPECTED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST TONIGHT BEFORE WEAK SOUTHERLY
FLOW STARTS TO TAKE OVER ON SAT. WARM AIR ADVECTION ON SOUTHWEST
FLOW KICKS IN THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS ON SAT. ISENTROPIC LIFT AND NAM/GFS
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE SAT
MORNING. THE GREATEST CHANCE IS FROM MADISON WESTWARD WHERE
SOUNDINGS ARE MORE SATURATED. NAM MAY BE OVERDOING THE MOISTURE BUT
SINCE GFS DOES SHOW DRIZZLE POTENTIAL HAVE ADDED IT TO THE FORECAST.
SOME DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE IN SE WI DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT AS HIGH SO LEFT OUT OF FORECAST. CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH SAT.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

THE MID LEVEL FLOW UNDERGOES A TRANSITION FROM A LOW AMPLITUDE
NORTHWEST FLOW TO A HIGHER AMPLITUDE SOUTHWEST FLOW AS A CLOSED
UPPER LEVEL LOW FORMS OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY SUNDAY
NIGHT.

THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE OVERALL FLOW WILL BRING
OUR FIRST SHOT OF WARM ADVECTION THAT COULD RESULT IN SOME LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE WEST OF MADISON SATURDAY NIGHT. AS THE WARMER AND
MORE MOIST FLOW CONTINUES...COMBINED WITH SOME EJECTING SHORT WAVE
ENERGY...THE CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW
WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING. AS TEMPS WARM ON SUNDAY...ANY
FREEZING PRECIP WILL TRANSITION TO A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX...OR JUST
LIGHT RAIN. LOOK FOR THESE SMALL CHANCES TO PERSIST INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES WEST OF WISCONSIN.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

MOST OF THE MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
WESTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH TUESDAY. THE CORRESPONDING SURFACE
LOW SHOULD TRACK FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS TO SOUTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS IS A FAIRLY WARM SOLUTION WITH
MOST OF THE AREA LIKELY TO JUST SEE SOME RAIN. SOME AREAS WILL SEE
A RAIN/SNOW MIX...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF MADISON...BUT IMPACT
UP TO THIS POINT SHOULD BE MINIMAL.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

AT THIS POINT THE MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY. THERE IS LOTS OF
CHATTER OUT THERE ABOUT A RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
THAT WILL IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL. WE HAVE 3 PRIMARY MODELS TO USE
AT THIS POINT. THE GFS TRACKS AND DEEPENS THE LOW UP OVER FAR NRN
WI AND THE UPPER PENINSULA. THIS SCENARIO IS FAIRLY LOW IN IMPACT
FOR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WITH COLD ADVECTION KICKING IN LATER
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT RAIN CHANGING TO LIGHT SNOW. WE COULD SEE
AN INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION OVER A FAIRLY LONG PERIOD.

THE SECOND SOLUTION IS FROM THE EUROPEAN ECMWF MODEL. IT HAS BEEN
THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH A VERY RAPID DEEPENING...MAY REACH BOMB
STATUS...WED THROUGH WED NIGHT. THIS OCCURS FARTHER EAST...
TRACKING FROM OHIO TO LAKE HURON. THIS WOULD LIKELY HAVE EVEN
LESS IMPACT AS THE ASSOCIATED PRECIP WOULD STAY MOSTLY TO OUR
EAST. WE WOULD JUST SEE STRONG COLD ADVECTION WITH SOME VERY
STRONG/GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. SOME LIGHT SNOW WOULD BE
POSSIBLE...BUT ACCUMS WOULD BE MORE LIMITED THAN EVEN THE GFS.

THE THIRD SOLUTION IS THE CANADIAN GEM AND IT/S TRACK LOOKS LIKE
BLEND OF THE GFS AND THE ECMWF...TRACKING THE LOW OVER SOUTHWEST
LOWER MICHIGAN WITH TIME. THIS TRACK WOULD HAVE THE GREATEST
IMPACT ON SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...POTENTIALLY BRINGING HIGHER
ACCUMULATING SNOWS THAT WOULD INTRODUCE TRAVEL HAZARDS FOR
WEDNESDAY.

GIVEN THE WIDE VARIABILITY IN THE OPERATIONAL RUNS AND THE
INDIVIDUAL MODEL ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS...CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE
SOLUTION IS QUITE LOW AT THIS POINT. THE CURRENT FCST IS HEDGED
TOWARD THE GFS SINCE IT/S ENSEMBLE SUITE AND OPERATIONAL TRACK
HAVE BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT.

FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

THERE IS EVIDENCE THAT A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPMENT...WHICH MAY BE
A CLIPPER MERGING WITH SOME ENERGY FROM THE SOUTHERN
STREAM...COULD BRING US A ROUND OF SNOW THE DAY AFTER CHRISTMAS.
THAT ONE COULD BE INTERESTING.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS CONTINUE TO MOVE INLAND
OVER SE WI. DUE TO STATIONARY SURFACE FLOW...EXPECT THESE VFR CLOUDS
TO CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT AT EASTERN TAF SITES WHILE
MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD CONTINUE AT MSN. SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW AN INVERSION AROUND 3 KFT. DURING THE
NIGHT WEAK WESTERLY MIDLEVEL FLOW WILL BE PUSHING LOW AND MIDLEVEL
CLOUDS EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN WI. THIS MAY LEAD TO FREEZING
DRIZZLE OR LIGHT SNOW IN THE MORNING AT MSN AND UES AND LATE MORNING
TO EARLY AFTERNOON AT MKE AND ENW.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HENTZ
TONIGHT/SATURDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MARQUARDT
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...DAVIS





000
FXUS63 KMKX 192150
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
350 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST TONIGHT BEFORE WEAK SOUTHERLY
FLOW STARTS TO TAKE OVER ON SAT. WARM AIR ADVECTION ON SOUTHWEST
FLOW KICKS IN THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS ON SAT. ISENTROPIC LIFT AND NAM/GFS
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE SAT
MORNING. THE GREATEST CHANCE IS FROM MADISON WESTWARD WHERE
SOUNDINGS ARE MORE SATURATED. NAM MAY BE OVERDOING THE MOISTURE BUT
SINCE GFS DOES SHOW DRIZZLE POTENTIAL HAVE ADDED IT TO THE FORECAST.
SOME DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE IN SE WI DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT AS HIGH SO LEFT OUT OF FORECAST. CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH SAT.

.SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

THE MID LEVEL FLOW UNDERGOES A TRANSITION FROM A LOW AMPLITUDE
NORTHWEST FLOW TO A HIGHER AMPLITUDE SOUTHWEST FLOW AS A CLOSED
UPPER LEVEL LOW FORMS OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY SUNDAY
NIGHT.

THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE OVERALL FLOW WILL BRING
OUR FIRST SHOT OF WARM ADVECTION THAT COULD RESULT IN SOME LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE WEST OF MADISON SATURDAY NIGHT. AS THE WARMER AND
MORE MOIST FLOW CONTINUES...COMBINED WITH SOME EJECTING SHORT WAVE
ENERGY...THE CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW
WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING. AS TEMPS WARM ON SUNDAY...ANY
FREEZING PRECIP WILL TRANSITION TO A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX...OR JUST
LIGHT RAIN. LOOK FOR THESE SMALL CHANCES TO PERSIST INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES WEST OF WISCONSIN.

.MONDAY AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

MOST OF THE MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
WESTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH TUESDAY. THE CORRESPONDING SURFACE
LOW SHOULD TRACK FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS TO SOUTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS IS A FAIRLY WARM SOLUTION WITH
MOST OF THE AREA LIKELY TO JUST SEE SOME RAIN. SOME AREAS WILL SEE
A RAIN/SNOW MIX...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF MADISON...BUT IMPACT
UP TO THIS POINT SHOULD BE MINIMAL.

.WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

AT THIS POINT THE MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY. THERE IS LOTS OF
CHATTER OUT THERE ABOUT A RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
THAT WILL IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL. WE HAVE 3 PRIMARY MODELS TO USE
AT THIS POINT. THE GFS TRACKS AND DEEPENS THE LOW UP OVER FAR NRN
WI AND THE UPPER PENINSULA. THIS SCENARIO IS FAIRLY LOW IN IMPACT
FOR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WITH COLD ADVECTION KICKING IN LATER
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT RAIN CHANGING TO LIGHT SNOW. WE COULD SEE
AN INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION OVER A FAIRLY LONG PERIOD.

THE SECOND SOLUTION IS FROM THE EUROPEAN ECMWF MODEL. IT HAS BEEN
THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH A VERY RAPID DEEPENING...MAY REACH BOMB
STATUS...WED THROUGH WED NIGHT. THIS OCCURS FARTHER EAST...
TRACKING FROM OHIO TO LAKE HURON. THIS WOULD LIKELY HAVE EVEN
LESS IMPACT AS THE ASSOCIATED PRECIP WOULD STAY MOSTLY TO OUR
EAST. WE WOULD JUST SEE STRONG COLD ADVECTION WITH SOME VERY
STRONG/GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. SOME LIGHT SNOW WOULD BE
POSSIBLE...BUT ACCUMS WOULD BE MORE LIMITED THAN EVEN THE GFS.

THE THIRD SOLUTION IS THE CANADIAN GEM AND IT/S TRACK LOOKS LIKE
BLEND OF THE GFS AND THE ECMWF...TRACKING THE LOW OVER SOUTHWEST
LOWER MICHIGAN WITH TIME. THIS TRACK WOULD HAVE THE GREATEST
IMPACT ON SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...POTENTIALLY BRINGING HIGHER
ACCUMULATING SNOWS THAT WOULD INTRODUCE TRAVEL HAZARDS FOR
WEDNESDAY.

GIVEN THE WIDE VARIABILITY IN THE OPERATIONAL RUNS AND THE
INDIVIDUAL MODEL ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS...CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE
SOLUTION IS QUITE LOW AT THIS POINT. THE CURRENT FCST IS HEDGED
TOWARD THE GFS SINCE IT/S ENSEMBLE SUITE AND OPERATIONAL TRACK
HAVE BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT.

.FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

THERE IS EVIDENCE THAT A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPMENT...WHICH MAY BE
A CLIPPER MERGING WITH SOME ENERGY FROM THE SOUTHERN
STREAM...COULD BRING US A ROUND OF SNOW THE DAY AFTER CHRISTMAS.
THAT ONE COULD BE INTERESTING.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS CONTINUE TO MOVE INLAND
OVER SE WI. DUE TO STATIONARY SURFACE FLOW...EXPECT THESE VFR CLOUDS
TO CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT AT EASTERN TAF SITES WHILE
MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD CONTINUE AT MSN. SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW AN INVERSION AROUND 3 KFT. DURING THE
NIGHT WEAK WESTERLY MIDLEVEL FLOW WILL BE PUSHING LOW AND MIDLEVEL
CLOUDS EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN WI. THIS MAY LEAD TO FREEZING
DRIZZLE OR LIGHT SNOW IN THE MORNING AT MSN AND UES AND LATE MORNING
TO EARLY AFTERNOON AT MKE AND ENW.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TONIGHT/SATURDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MARQUARDT
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...DAVIS





000
FXUS63 KMKX 192150
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
350 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST TONIGHT BEFORE WEAK SOUTHERLY
FLOW STARTS TO TAKE OVER ON SAT. WARM AIR ADVECTION ON SOUTHWEST
FLOW KICKS IN THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS ON SAT. ISENTROPIC LIFT AND NAM/GFS
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE SAT
MORNING. THE GREATEST CHANCE IS FROM MADISON WESTWARD WHERE
SOUNDINGS ARE MORE SATURATED. NAM MAY BE OVERDOING THE MOISTURE BUT
SINCE GFS DOES SHOW DRIZZLE POTENTIAL HAVE ADDED IT TO THE FORECAST.
SOME DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE IN SE WI DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT AS HIGH SO LEFT OUT OF FORECAST. CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH SAT.

.SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

THE MID LEVEL FLOW UNDERGOES A TRANSITION FROM A LOW AMPLITUDE
NORTHWEST FLOW TO A HIGHER AMPLITUDE SOUTHWEST FLOW AS A CLOSED
UPPER LEVEL LOW FORMS OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY SUNDAY
NIGHT.

THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE OVERALL FLOW WILL BRING
OUR FIRST SHOT OF WARM ADVECTION THAT COULD RESULT IN SOME LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE WEST OF MADISON SATURDAY NIGHT. AS THE WARMER AND
MORE MOIST FLOW CONTINUES...COMBINED WITH SOME EJECTING SHORT WAVE
ENERGY...THE CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW
WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING. AS TEMPS WARM ON SUNDAY...ANY
FREEZING PRECIP WILL TRANSITION TO A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX...OR JUST
LIGHT RAIN. LOOK FOR THESE SMALL CHANCES TO PERSIST INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES WEST OF WISCONSIN.

.MONDAY AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

MOST OF THE MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
WESTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH TUESDAY. THE CORRESPONDING SURFACE
LOW SHOULD TRACK FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS TO SOUTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS IS A FAIRLY WARM SOLUTION WITH
MOST OF THE AREA LIKELY TO JUST SEE SOME RAIN. SOME AREAS WILL SEE
A RAIN/SNOW MIX...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF MADISON...BUT IMPACT
UP TO THIS POINT SHOULD BE MINIMAL.

.WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

AT THIS POINT THE MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY. THERE IS LOTS OF
CHATTER OUT THERE ABOUT A RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
THAT WILL IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL. WE HAVE 3 PRIMARY MODELS TO USE
AT THIS POINT. THE GFS TRACKS AND DEEPENS THE LOW UP OVER FAR NRN
WI AND THE UPPER PENINSULA. THIS SCENARIO IS FAIRLY LOW IN IMPACT
FOR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WITH COLD ADVECTION KICKING IN LATER
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT RAIN CHANGING TO LIGHT SNOW. WE COULD SEE
AN INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION OVER A FAIRLY LONG PERIOD.

THE SECOND SOLUTION IS FROM THE EUROPEAN ECMWF MODEL. IT HAS BEEN
THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH A VERY RAPID DEEPENING...MAY REACH BOMB
STATUS...WED THROUGH WED NIGHT. THIS OCCURS FARTHER EAST...
TRACKING FROM OHIO TO LAKE HURON. THIS WOULD LIKELY HAVE EVEN
LESS IMPACT AS THE ASSOCIATED PRECIP WOULD STAY MOSTLY TO OUR
EAST. WE WOULD JUST SEE STRONG COLD ADVECTION WITH SOME VERY
STRONG/GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. SOME LIGHT SNOW WOULD BE
POSSIBLE...BUT ACCUMS WOULD BE MORE LIMITED THAN EVEN THE GFS.

THE THIRD SOLUTION IS THE CANADIAN GEM AND IT/S TRACK LOOKS LIKE
BLEND OF THE GFS AND THE ECMWF...TRACKING THE LOW OVER SOUTHWEST
LOWER MICHIGAN WITH TIME. THIS TRACK WOULD HAVE THE GREATEST
IMPACT ON SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...POTENTIALLY BRINGING HIGHER
ACCUMULATING SNOWS THAT WOULD INTRODUCE TRAVEL HAZARDS FOR
WEDNESDAY.

GIVEN THE WIDE VARIABILITY IN THE OPERATIONAL RUNS AND THE
INDIVIDUAL MODEL ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS...CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE
SOLUTION IS QUITE LOW AT THIS POINT. THE CURRENT FCST IS HEDGED
TOWARD THE GFS SINCE IT/S ENSEMBLE SUITE AND OPERATIONAL TRACK
HAVE BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT.

.FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

THERE IS EVIDENCE THAT A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPMENT...WHICH MAY BE
A CLIPPER MERGING WITH SOME ENERGY FROM THE SOUTHERN
STREAM...COULD BRING US A ROUND OF SNOW THE DAY AFTER CHRISTMAS.
THAT ONE COULD BE INTERESTING.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS CONTINUE TO MOVE INLAND
OVER SE WI. DUE TO STATIONARY SURFACE FLOW...EXPECT THESE VFR CLOUDS
TO CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT AT EASTERN TAF SITES WHILE
MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD CONTINUE AT MSN. SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW AN INVERSION AROUND 3 KFT. DURING THE
NIGHT WEAK WESTERLY MIDLEVEL FLOW WILL BE PUSHING LOW AND MIDLEVEL
CLOUDS EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN WI. THIS MAY LEAD TO FREEZING
DRIZZLE OR LIGHT SNOW IN THE MORNING AT MSN AND UES AND LATE MORNING
TO EARLY AFTERNOON AT MKE AND ENW.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TONIGHT/SATURDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MARQUARDT
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...DAVIS




000
FXUS63 KMKX 191750
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1150 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...
THERE ARE SOME BREAKS IN CLOUDS AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE
NORTH. HOWEVER LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS ARE SHIFTING SOUTHWEST INTO SE
WI SO EXPECTING MAINLY OVERCAST CONDITIONS AGAIN TODAY.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...
DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH IS CAUSING BREAKS IN CLOUDS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS EXTENSIVE
LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS MID LAKE SHIFTING SOUTHWEST. THESE ARE SPREADING
INTO SOUTHEAST WI. AS A RESULT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH SKY
COVER AND CEILING HEIGHT THIS AFTERNOON.

SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW AN
INVERSION AROUND 3 KFT. BY THIS EVENING WEAK WESTERLY MIDLEVEL FLOW
WILL BE PUSHING LOW AND MIDLEVEL CLOUDS EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN WI
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE REGION. EXPECT OVC CONDITIONS LATE
THIS EVENING THROUGH SAT. LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE EARLY
SAT MORNING INTO MID MORNING BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO PUT IN
TAFS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

VERY LIGHT RETURNS HAVE CONTINUED TO DIMINISH ON WSR-88D KMKX
THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT AS WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH
SFC-85H TROF FURTHER WEAKENS AND MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. FEW VERY
LIGHT FLURRIES MAY STILL FALL IN SOUTHEAST BUT WL NOT INCLUDE AT
THIS POINT.

11-3.9 MICRON IMAGERY SHOWING SLOW DECREASE IN STRATUS FIELD OVER
NORTHEAST CWA TO OVER WEST CENTRAL LAKE MI.  MESO MODELS IN
REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR SAGGING SOUTH ACROSS ERN
CWA TODAY DUE TO LIGHT NORTH WINDS.  DIFFERENT STORY FARTHER WEST AS
WRN HALF OF CWA WL REMAIN IN LIGHT AND VARIABLE LOW LEVEL WINDS DUE
TO RIDGE AXIS.  WITH PERSISTENT STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION...WL
CONTINUE WITH MORE CLOUDS IN THE WEST.

VERY WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION TO COMMENCE LATER TONIGHT TO THE WEST
AND GRAZES NORTHWEST CWA AFT MIDNIGHT.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
SMALL POTENTIAL FOR MORE FLURRIES OR -FZDZ AS COLUMN DRIES OUT JUST
BELOW -10C.  SINCE FORCING VERY WEAK...WL HOLD OFF ON INTRODUCING
ANY LIGHT PRECIP AT THIS TIME.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE THROUGH ON
SATURDAY...WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS. THERE IS A LITTLE
LIFT WITH THE SHORTWAVE...BUT SOUNDINGS SHOW A LOT OF DRY
AIR...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ONLY UP TO AROUND 0.35
INCHES. THUS KEPT THE FORECAST DRY.

SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY SATURDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES.
HAVE SOME POPS IN THE FORECAST WEST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH.
PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT END...WITH THE MAIN FORECAST
ISSUE PRECIP TYPE. OVERALL TEMP PROFILE LOOKS LIKE SNOW...BUT
SOUNDINGS SHOW A LOSS OF ICE CRYSTALS AT TIMES...LEADING TO
POSSIBLE DRIZZLE. ALONG WITH SNOW CHANCES...MENTIONED FREEZING
DRIZZLE LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING WHILE SURFACE TEMPS
REMAIN BELOW FREEZING. COULD SEE A LITTLE MORE FREEZING DRIZZLE
SUNDAY NIGHT AS TEMPS DIP BACK BELOW FREEZING.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

A NEARLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY. CONSENSUS OF MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST THAT BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE MONDAY EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE LIFTS THROUGH. LOOKS LIKE MAINLY
RAIN MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A TRANSITION TO A LITTLE LIGHT
SNOW TUESDAY AS TEMPERATURES FALL BEHIND THE LOW. MOST OF THE
MOISTURE AND LIFT IS EXPECTED TO HAVE MOVED ON BY THE TIME TEMPS
ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...SO ONLY A TRACE TO A COUPLE TENTHS OF
AN INCH OR SNOW POSSIBLE.

COULD SEE A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW LINGERS
IN THE AREA...LIKELY ONLY A DUSTING TO A COUPLE TENTHS OF
ACCUMULATION AGAIN. DRY WEATHER IS THEN FORECAST FOR CHRISTMAS
BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS.

AFTER MILDER TEMPS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK...SHOULD SEE
HIGHS BACK AROUND NORMAL BY CHRISTMAS.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

11-3.9 MICRON IMAGERY SHOWING SLOW DECREASE IN STRATUS FIELD OVER
WEST CENTRAL LAKE MI. ALTHOUGH LOW CLOUDS REDEVELOPED OVER
NORTHEAST CWA AROUND 06Z...THESE CLOUDS ALSO APPEAR TO BE
DECREASING ONCE AGAIN. MESO-MODELS IN AGREEMENT ON CARRYING LOWER
RH ACROSS ERN CWA THIS MRNG SO WL CONTINUE TREND TOWARD VFR IN ERN
TAF SITES.

KMKX SHOWING LIGHT RETURNS HAVE CONTINUED TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND
NO FURTHER REPORTS OF FLURRIES OR -FZDZ AS WEAK LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ASSOCD WITH 85H/SFC TROF FURTHER WEAKENS.  WL REMAIN
MORE PESSIMISTIC AT KMSN AND KEEP LOWER CIGS IN FOR THE DURATION DUE
TO LIGHTER LOW LEVEL FLOW. RETURN OF SLY WINDS MAY BRING MVFR CIGS
BACK TO ERN TAF SITES LATER TNGT.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MARQUARDT
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...DDV




000
FXUS63 KMKX 191750
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1150 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...
THERE ARE SOME BREAKS IN CLOUDS AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE
NORTH. HOWEVER LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS ARE SHIFTING SOUTHWEST INTO SE
WI SO EXPECTING MAINLY OVERCAST CONDITIONS AGAIN TODAY.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...
DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH IS CAUSING BREAKS IN CLOUDS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS EXTENSIVE
LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS MID LAKE SHIFTING SOUTHWEST. THESE ARE SPREADING
INTO SOUTHEAST WI. AS A RESULT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH SKY
COVER AND CEILING HEIGHT THIS AFTERNOON.

SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW AN
INVERSION AROUND 3 KFT. BY THIS EVENING WEAK WESTERLY MIDLEVEL FLOW
WILL BE PUSHING LOW AND MIDLEVEL CLOUDS EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN WI
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE REGION. EXPECT OVC CONDITIONS LATE
THIS EVENING THROUGH SAT. LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE EARLY
SAT MORNING INTO MID MORNING BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO PUT IN
TAFS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

VERY LIGHT RETURNS HAVE CONTINUED TO DIMINISH ON WSR-88D KMKX
THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT AS WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH
SFC-85H TROF FURTHER WEAKENS AND MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. FEW VERY
LIGHT FLURRIES MAY STILL FALL IN SOUTHEAST BUT WL NOT INCLUDE AT
THIS POINT.

11-3.9 MICRON IMAGERY SHOWING SLOW DECREASE IN STRATUS FIELD OVER
NORTHEAST CWA TO OVER WEST CENTRAL LAKE MI.  MESO MODELS IN
REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR SAGGING SOUTH ACROSS ERN
CWA TODAY DUE TO LIGHT NORTH WINDS.  DIFFERENT STORY FARTHER WEST AS
WRN HALF OF CWA WL REMAIN IN LIGHT AND VARIABLE LOW LEVEL WINDS DUE
TO RIDGE AXIS.  WITH PERSISTENT STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION...WL
CONTINUE WITH MORE CLOUDS IN THE WEST.

VERY WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION TO COMMENCE LATER TONIGHT TO THE WEST
AND GRAZES NORTHWEST CWA AFT MIDNIGHT.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
SMALL POTENTIAL FOR MORE FLURRIES OR -FZDZ AS COLUMN DRIES OUT JUST
BELOW -10C.  SINCE FORCING VERY WEAK...WL HOLD OFF ON INTRODUCING
ANY LIGHT PRECIP AT THIS TIME.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE THROUGH ON
SATURDAY...WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS. THERE IS A LITTLE
LIFT WITH THE SHORTWAVE...BUT SOUNDINGS SHOW A LOT OF DRY
AIR...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ONLY UP TO AROUND 0.35
INCHES. THUS KEPT THE FORECAST DRY.

SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY SATURDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES.
HAVE SOME POPS IN THE FORECAST WEST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH.
PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT END...WITH THE MAIN FORECAST
ISSUE PRECIP TYPE. OVERALL TEMP PROFILE LOOKS LIKE SNOW...BUT
SOUNDINGS SHOW A LOSS OF ICE CRYSTALS AT TIMES...LEADING TO
POSSIBLE DRIZZLE. ALONG WITH SNOW CHANCES...MENTIONED FREEZING
DRIZZLE LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING WHILE SURFACE TEMPS
REMAIN BELOW FREEZING. COULD SEE A LITTLE MORE FREEZING DRIZZLE
SUNDAY NIGHT AS TEMPS DIP BACK BELOW FREEZING.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

A NEARLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY. CONSENSUS OF MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST THAT BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE MONDAY EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE LIFTS THROUGH. LOOKS LIKE MAINLY
RAIN MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A TRANSITION TO A LITTLE LIGHT
SNOW TUESDAY AS TEMPERATURES FALL BEHIND THE LOW. MOST OF THE
MOISTURE AND LIFT IS EXPECTED TO HAVE MOVED ON BY THE TIME TEMPS
ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...SO ONLY A TRACE TO A COUPLE TENTHS OF
AN INCH OR SNOW POSSIBLE.

COULD SEE A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW LINGERS
IN THE AREA...LIKELY ONLY A DUSTING TO A COUPLE TENTHS OF
ACCUMULATION AGAIN. DRY WEATHER IS THEN FORECAST FOR CHRISTMAS
BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS.

AFTER MILDER TEMPS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK...SHOULD SEE
HIGHS BACK AROUND NORMAL BY CHRISTMAS.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

11-3.9 MICRON IMAGERY SHOWING SLOW DECREASE IN STRATUS FIELD OVER
WEST CENTRAL LAKE MI. ALTHOUGH LOW CLOUDS REDEVELOPED OVER
NORTHEAST CWA AROUND 06Z...THESE CLOUDS ALSO APPEAR TO BE
DECREASING ONCE AGAIN. MESO-MODELS IN AGREEMENT ON CARRYING LOWER
RH ACROSS ERN CWA THIS MRNG SO WL CONTINUE TREND TOWARD VFR IN ERN
TAF SITES.

KMKX SHOWING LIGHT RETURNS HAVE CONTINUED TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND
NO FURTHER REPORTS OF FLURRIES OR -FZDZ AS WEAK LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ASSOCD WITH 85H/SFC TROF FURTHER WEAKENS.  WL REMAIN
MORE PESSIMISTIC AT KMSN AND KEEP LOWER CIGS IN FOR THE DURATION DUE
TO LIGHTER LOW LEVEL FLOW. RETURN OF SLY WINDS MAY BRING MVFR CIGS
BACK TO ERN TAF SITES LATER TNGT.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MARQUARDT
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...DDV





000
FXUS63 KMKX 190933
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
333 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

VERY LIGHT RETURNS HAVE CONTINUED TO DIMINISH ON WSR-88D KMKX
THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT AS WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH
SFC-85H TROF FURTHER WEAKENS AND MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. FEW VERY
LIGHT FLURRIES MAY STILL FALL IN SOUTHEAST BUT WL NOT INCLUDE AT
THIS POINT.

11-3.9 MICRON IMAGERY SHOWING SLOW DECREASE IN STRATUS FIELD OVER
NORTHEAST CWA TO OVER WEST CENTRAL LAKE MI.  MESO MODELS IN
REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR SAGGING SOUTH ACROSS ERN
CWA TODAY DUE TO LIGHT NORTH WINDS.  DIFFERENT STORY FARTHER WEST AS
WRN HALF OF CWA WL REMAIN IN LIGHT AND VARIABLE LOW LEVEL WINDS DUE
TO RIDGE AXIS.  WITH PERSISTENT STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION...WL
CONTINUE WITH MORE CLOUDS IN THE WEST.

VERY WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION TO COMMENCE LATER TONIGHT TO THE WEST
AND GRAZES NORTHWEST CWA AFT MIDNIGHT.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
SMALL POTENTIAL FOR MORE FLURRIES OR -FZDZ AS COLUMN DRIES OUT JUST
BELOW -10C.  SINCE FORCING VERY WEAK...WL HOLD OFF ON INTRODUCING
ANY LIGHT PRECIP AT THIS TIME.

.SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE THROUGH ON
SATURDAY...WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS. THERE IS A LITTLE
LIFT WITH THE SHORTWAVE...BUT SOUNDINGS SHOW A LOT OF DRY
AIR...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ONLY UP TO AROUND 0.35
INCHES. THUS KEPT THE FORECAST DRY.

SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY SATURDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES.
HAVE SOME POPS IN THE FORECAST WEST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH.
PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT END...WITH THE MAIN FORECAST
ISSUE PRECIP TYPE. OVERALL TEMP PROFILE LOOKS LIKE SNOW...BUT
SOUNDINGS SHOW A LOSS OF ICE CRYSTALS AT TIMES...LEADING TO
POSSIBLE DRIZZLE. ALONG WITH SNOW CHANCES...MENTIONED FREEZING
DRIZZLE LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING WHILE SURFACE TEMPS
REMAIN BELOW FREEZING. COULD SEE A LITTLE MORE FREEZING DRIZZLE
SUNDAY NIGHT AS TEMPS DIP BACK BELOW FREEZING.

.MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

A NEARLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY. CONSENSUS OF MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST THAT BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE MONDAY EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE LIFTS THROUGH. LOOKS LIKE MAINLY
RAIN MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A TRANSITION TO A LITTLE LIGHT
SNOW TUESDAY AS TEMPERATURES FALL BEHIND THE LOW. MOST OF THE
MOISTURE AND LIFT IS EXPECTED TO HAVE MOVED ON BY THE TIME TEMPS
ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...SO ONLY A TRACE TO A COUPLE TENTHS OF
AN INCH OR SNOW POSSIBLE.

COULD SEE A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW LINGERS
IN THE AREA...LIKELY ONLY A DUSTING TO A COUPLE TENTHS OF
ACCUMULATION AGAIN. DRY WEATHER IS THEN FORECAST FOR CHRISTMAS
BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS.

AFTER MILDER TEMPS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK...SHOULD SEE
HIGHS BACK AROUND NORMAL BY CHRISTMAS.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

11-3.9 MICRON IMAGERY SHOWING SLOW DECREASE IN STRATUS FIELD OVER
WEST CENTRAL LAKE MI. ALTHOUGH LOW CLOUDS REDEVELOPED OVER
NORTHEAST CWA AROUND 06Z...THESE CLOUDS ALSO APPEAR TO BE
DECREASING ONCE AGAIN. MESO-MODELS IN AGREEMENT ON CARRYING LOWER
RH ACROSS ERN CWA THIS MRNG SO WL CONTINUE TREND TOWARD VFR IN ERN
TAF SITES.

KMKX SHOWING LIGHT RETURNS HAVE CONTINUED TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND
NO FURTHER REPORTS OF FLURRIES OR -FZDZ AS WEAK LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ASSOCD WITH 85H/SFC TROF FURTHER WEAKENS.  WL REMAIN
MORE PESSIMISTIC AT KMSN AND KEEP LOWER CIGS IN FOR THE DURATION DUE
TO LIGHTER LOW LEVEL FLOW. RETURN OF SLY WINDS MAY BRING MVFR CIGS
BACK TO ERN TAF SITES LATER TNGT.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION...MBK
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...DDV





000
FXUS63 KMKX 190933
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
333 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

VERY LIGHT RETURNS HAVE CONTINUED TO DIMINISH ON WSR-88D KMKX
THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT AS WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH
SFC-85H TROF FURTHER WEAKENS AND MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. FEW VERY
LIGHT FLURRIES MAY STILL FALL IN SOUTHEAST BUT WL NOT INCLUDE AT
THIS POINT.

11-3.9 MICRON IMAGERY SHOWING SLOW DECREASE IN STRATUS FIELD OVER
NORTHEAST CWA TO OVER WEST CENTRAL LAKE MI.  MESO MODELS IN
REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR SAGGING SOUTH ACROSS ERN
CWA TODAY DUE TO LIGHT NORTH WINDS.  DIFFERENT STORY FARTHER WEST AS
WRN HALF OF CWA WL REMAIN IN LIGHT AND VARIABLE LOW LEVEL WINDS DUE
TO RIDGE AXIS.  WITH PERSISTENT STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION...WL
CONTINUE WITH MORE CLOUDS IN THE WEST.

VERY WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION TO COMMENCE LATER TONIGHT TO THE WEST
AND GRAZES NORTHWEST CWA AFT MIDNIGHT.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
SMALL POTENTIAL FOR MORE FLURRIES OR -FZDZ AS COLUMN DRIES OUT JUST
BELOW -10C.  SINCE FORCING VERY WEAK...WL HOLD OFF ON INTRODUCING
ANY LIGHT PRECIP AT THIS TIME.

.SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE THROUGH ON
SATURDAY...WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS. THERE IS A LITTLE
LIFT WITH THE SHORTWAVE...BUT SOUNDINGS SHOW A LOT OF DRY
AIR...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ONLY UP TO AROUND 0.35
INCHES. THUS KEPT THE FORECAST DRY.

SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY SATURDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES.
HAVE SOME POPS IN THE FORECAST WEST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH.
PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT END...WITH THE MAIN FORECAST
ISSUE PRECIP TYPE. OVERALL TEMP PROFILE LOOKS LIKE SNOW...BUT
SOUNDINGS SHOW A LOSS OF ICE CRYSTALS AT TIMES...LEADING TO
POSSIBLE DRIZZLE. ALONG WITH SNOW CHANCES...MENTIONED FREEZING
DRIZZLE LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING WHILE SURFACE TEMPS
REMAIN BELOW FREEZING. COULD SEE A LITTLE MORE FREEZING DRIZZLE
SUNDAY NIGHT AS TEMPS DIP BACK BELOW FREEZING.

.MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

A NEARLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY. CONSENSUS OF MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST THAT BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE MONDAY EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE LIFTS THROUGH. LOOKS LIKE MAINLY
RAIN MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A TRANSITION TO A LITTLE LIGHT
SNOW TUESDAY AS TEMPERATURES FALL BEHIND THE LOW. MOST OF THE
MOISTURE AND LIFT IS EXPECTED TO HAVE MOVED ON BY THE TIME TEMPS
ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...SO ONLY A TRACE TO A COUPLE TENTHS OF
AN INCH OR SNOW POSSIBLE.

COULD SEE A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW LINGERS
IN THE AREA...LIKELY ONLY A DUSTING TO A COUPLE TENTHS OF
ACCUMULATION AGAIN. DRY WEATHER IS THEN FORECAST FOR CHRISTMAS
BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS.

AFTER MILDER TEMPS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK...SHOULD SEE
HIGHS BACK AROUND NORMAL BY CHRISTMAS.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

11-3.9 MICRON IMAGERY SHOWING SLOW DECREASE IN STRATUS FIELD OVER
WEST CENTRAL LAKE MI. ALTHOUGH LOW CLOUDS REDEVELOPED OVER
NORTHEAST CWA AROUND 06Z...THESE CLOUDS ALSO APPEAR TO BE
DECREASING ONCE AGAIN. MESO-MODELS IN AGREEMENT ON CARRYING LOWER
RH ACROSS ERN CWA THIS MRNG SO WL CONTINUE TREND TOWARD VFR IN ERN
TAF SITES.

KMKX SHOWING LIGHT RETURNS HAVE CONTINUED TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND
NO FURTHER REPORTS OF FLURRIES OR -FZDZ AS WEAK LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ASSOCD WITH 85H/SFC TROF FURTHER WEAKENS.  WL REMAIN
MORE PESSIMISTIC AT KMSN AND KEEP LOWER CIGS IN FOR THE DURATION DUE
TO LIGHTER LOW LEVEL FLOW. RETURN OF SLY WINDS MAY BRING MVFR CIGS
BACK TO ERN TAF SITES LATER TNGT.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION...MBK
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...DDV




000
FXUS63 KMKX 190933
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
333 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

VERY LIGHT RETURNS HAVE CONTINUED TO DIMINISH ON WSR-88D KMKX
THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT AS WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH
SFC-85H TROF FURTHER WEAKENS AND MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. FEW VERY
LIGHT FLURRIES MAY STILL FALL IN SOUTHEAST BUT WL NOT INCLUDE AT
THIS POINT.

11-3.9 MICRON IMAGERY SHOWING SLOW DECREASE IN STRATUS FIELD OVER
NORTHEAST CWA TO OVER WEST CENTRAL LAKE MI.  MESO MODELS IN
REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR SAGGING SOUTH ACROSS ERN
CWA TODAY DUE TO LIGHT NORTH WINDS.  DIFFERENT STORY FARTHER WEST AS
WRN HALF OF CWA WL REMAIN IN LIGHT AND VARIABLE LOW LEVEL WINDS DUE
TO RIDGE AXIS.  WITH PERSISTENT STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION...WL
CONTINUE WITH MORE CLOUDS IN THE WEST.

VERY WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION TO COMMENCE LATER TONIGHT TO THE WEST
AND GRAZES NORTHWEST CWA AFT MIDNIGHT.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
SMALL POTENTIAL FOR MORE FLURRIES OR -FZDZ AS COLUMN DRIES OUT JUST
BELOW -10C.  SINCE FORCING VERY WEAK...WL HOLD OFF ON INTRODUCING
ANY LIGHT PRECIP AT THIS TIME.

.SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE THROUGH ON
SATURDAY...WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS. THERE IS A LITTLE
LIFT WITH THE SHORTWAVE...BUT SOUNDINGS SHOW A LOT OF DRY
AIR...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ONLY UP TO AROUND 0.35
INCHES. THUS KEPT THE FORECAST DRY.

SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY SATURDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES.
HAVE SOME POPS IN THE FORECAST WEST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH.
PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT END...WITH THE MAIN FORECAST
ISSUE PRECIP TYPE. OVERALL TEMP PROFILE LOOKS LIKE SNOW...BUT
SOUNDINGS SHOW A LOSS OF ICE CRYSTALS AT TIMES...LEADING TO
POSSIBLE DRIZZLE. ALONG WITH SNOW CHANCES...MENTIONED FREEZING
DRIZZLE LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING WHILE SURFACE TEMPS
REMAIN BELOW FREEZING. COULD SEE A LITTLE MORE FREEZING DRIZZLE
SUNDAY NIGHT AS TEMPS DIP BACK BELOW FREEZING.

.MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

A NEARLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY. CONSENSUS OF MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST THAT BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE MONDAY EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE LIFTS THROUGH. LOOKS LIKE MAINLY
RAIN MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A TRANSITION TO A LITTLE LIGHT
SNOW TUESDAY AS TEMPERATURES FALL BEHIND THE LOW. MOST OF THE
MOISTURE AND LIFT IS EXPECTED TO HAVE MOVED ON BY THE TIME TEMPS
ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...SO ONLY A TRACE TO A COUPLE TENTHS OF
AN INCH OR SNOW POSSIBLE.

COULD SEE A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW LINGERS
IN THE AREA...LIKELY ONLY A DUSTING TO A COUPLE TENTHS OF
ACCUMULATION AGAIN. DRY WEATHER IS THEN FORECAST FOR CHRISTMAS
BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS.

AFTER MILDER TEMPS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK...SHOULD SEE
HIGHS BACK AROUND NORMAL BY CHRISTMAS.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

11-3.9 MICRON IMAGERY SHOWING SLOW DECREASE IN STRATUS FIELD OVER
WEST CENTRAL LAKE MI. ALTHOUGH LOW CLOUDS REDEVELOPED OVER
NORTHEAST CWA AROUND 06Z...THESE CLOUDS ALSO APPEAR TO BE
DECREASING ONCE AGAIN. MESO-MODELS IN AGREEMENT ON CARRYING LOWER
RH ACROSS ERN CWA THIS MRNG SO WL CONTINUE TREND TOWARD VFR IN ERN
TAF SITES.

KMKX SHOWING LIGHT RETURNS HAVE CONTINUED TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND
NO FURTHER REPORTS OF FLURRIES OR -FZDZ AS WEAK LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ASSOCD WITH 85H/SFC TROF FURTHER WEAKENS.  WL REMAIN
MORE PESSIMISTIC AT KMSN AND KEEP LOWER CIGS IN FOR THE DURATION DUE
TO LIGHTER LOW LEVEL FLOW. RETURN OF SLY WINDS MAY BRING MVFR CIGS
BACK TO ERN TAF SITES LATER TNGT.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION...MBK
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...DDV





000
FXUS63 KMKX 190933
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
333 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

VERY LIGHT RETURNS HAVE CONTINUED TO DIMINISH ON WSR-88D KMKX
THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT AS WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH
SFC-85H TROF FURTHER WEAKENS AND MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. FEW VERY
LIGHT FLURRIES MAY STILL FALL IN SOUTHEAST BUT WL NOT INCLUDE AT
THIS POINT.

11-3.9 MICRON IMAGERY SHOWING SLOW DECREASE IN STRATUS FIELD OVER
NORTHEAST CWA TO OVER WEST CENTRAL LAKE MI.  MESO MODELS IN
REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR SAGGING SOUTH ACROSS ERN
CWA TODAY DUE TO LIGHT NORTH WINDS.  DIFFERENT STORY FARTHER WEST AS
WRN HALF OF CWA WL REMAIN IN LIGHT AND VARIABLE LOW LEVEL WINDS DUE
TO RIDGE AXIS.  WITH PERSISTENT STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION...WL
CONTINUE WITH MORE CLOUDS IN THE WEST.

VERY WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION TO COMMENCE LATER TONIGHT TO THE WEST
AND GRAZES NORTHWEST CWA AFT MIDNIGHT.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
SMALL POTENTIAL FOR MORE FLURRIES OR -FZDZ AS COLUMN DRIES OUT JUST
BELOW -10C.  SINCE FORCING VERY WEAK...WL HOLD OFF ON INTRODUCING
ANY LIGHT PRECIP AT THIS TIME.

.SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE THROUGH ON
SATURDAY...WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS. THERE IS A LITTLE
LIFT WITH THE SHORTWAVE...BUT SOUNDINGS SHOW A LOT OF DRY
AIR...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ONLY UP TO AROUND 0.35
INCHES. THUS KEPT THE FORECAST DRY.

SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY SATURDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES.
HAVE SOME POPS IN THE FORECAST WEST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH.
PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT END...WITH THE MAIN FORECAST
ISSUE PRECIP TYPE. OVERALL TEMP PROFILE LOOKS LIKE SNOW...BUT
SOUNDINGS SHOW A LOSS OF ICE CRYSTALS AT TIMES...LEADING TO
POSSIBLE DRIZZLE. ALONG WITH SNOW CHANCES...MENTIONED FREEZING
DRIZZLE LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING WHILE SURFACE TEMPS
REMAIN BELOW FREEZING. COULD SEE A LITTLE MORE FREEZING DRIZZLE
SUNDAY NIGHT AS TEMPS DIP BACK BELOW FREEZING.

.MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

A NEARLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY. CONSENSUS OF MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST THAT BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE MONDAY EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE LIFTS THROUGH. LOOKS LIKE MAINLY
RAIN MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A TRANSITION TO A LITTLE LIGHT
SNOW TUESDAY AS TEMPERATURES FALL BEHIND THE LOW. MOST OF THE
MOISTURE AND LIFT IS EXPECTED TO HAVE MOVED ON BY THE TIME TEMPS
ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...SO ONLY A TRACE TO A COUPLE TENTHS OF
AN INCH OR SNOW POSSIBLE.

COULD SEE A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW LINGERS
IN THE AREA...LIKELY ONLY A DUSTING TO A COUPLE TENTHS OF
ACCUMULATION AGAIN. DRY WEATHER IS THEN FORECAST FOR CHRISTMAS
BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS.

AFTER MILDER TEMPS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK...SHOULD SEE
HIGHS BACK AROUND NORMAL BY CHRISTMAS.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

11-3.9 MICRON IMAGERY SHOWING SLOW DECREASE IN STRATUS FIELD OVER
WEST CENTRAL LAKE MI. ALTHOUGH LOW CLOUDS REDEVELOPED OVER
NORTHEAST CWA AROUND 06Z...THESE CLOUDS ALSO APPEAR TO BE
DECREASING ONCE AGAIN. MESO-MODELS IN AGREEMENT ON CARRYING LOWER
RH ACROSS ERN CWA THIS MRNG SO WL CONTINUE TREND TOWARD VFR IN ERN
TAF SITES.

KMKX SHOWING LIGHT RETURNS HAVE CONTINUED TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND
NO FURTHER REPORTS OF FLURRIES OR -FZDZ AS WEAK LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ASSOCD WITH 85H/SFC TROF FURTHER WEAKENS.  WL REMAIN
MORE PESSIMISTIC AT KMSN AND KEEP LOWER CIGS IN FOR THE DURATION DUE
TO LIGHTER LOW LEVEL FLOW. RETURN OF SLY WINDS MAY BRING MVFR CIGS
BACK TO ERN TAF SITES LATER TNGT.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION...MBK
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...DDV




000
FXUS63 KMKX 190344
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
944 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AND FLURRIES IS NOW MOSTLY
LOCATED SOUTH OF A LINE FROM JEFFERSON TO MILWAUKEE WITH POSSIBLE
AREAS STILL IN DANE COUNTY. THE MIXED PCPN IS ON THE FAR WRN END
OF A WEST TO EAST SFC TROUGH THAT WILL SHIFT SWD BY
MIDNIGHT...MARKING THE END OF THE PCPN. A WEDGE OF DRY SHOULD ALSO
CONTINUE SWD OVER ERN WI TNT BUT THE STRATUS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WI INTO FRI.

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...ANY LINGERING FLURRIES OR FREEZING DRIZZLE
SHOULD END BY MIDNIGHT FOR KMSN AND SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR
KENW. KUES AND KMKE SHOULD REMAIN DRY. DRIER AIR AND AN AREA OF
CLEARING WILL MOVE SWD OVER FAR ERN WI TNT WHILE THE STRATUS
REMAINS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WI THROUGH FRI AM. THUS EXPECT MORE SCT
CLOUD COVER OVER THE ERN WI TAF SITES FOR FRI BUT MVFR CIGS
REMAIN FOR KMSN...BUT POSSIBLY GOING SCATTERED DURING THE
AFTERNOON.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

NO LONGER EXPECTING LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE TO OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA.
VERY LIGHT REFLECTIVITY ON RADAR NOT VERIFYING ANY PRECIPITATION
WITH THE AUTOMATED SITES. MEDIA AND PUBLIC REPORTS...AS WELL AS
COUNTY DISPATCHERS...NOT REPORTING ISSUES WITH SLICK ROADS ONCE ROAD
TREATMENTS WERE APPLIED.

AREA OF LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA.
THERE MAY BE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING IN THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES...GIVEN
BACK EDGE OF CLOUDS SLIDING SOUTHWEST TOWARD THAT AREA. SOME
UNCERTAINTY HERE...AS LIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
INVERSION TO LINGER AND KEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED. OPTED TO
REMAIN PESSIMISTIC WITH CLOUDS TONIGHT. LOWS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE
LOWER 20S IN MOST AREAS...A BIT WARMER NEAR THE LAKE.

MODELS SUGGEST LOW CLOUDS MAY LINGER FRIDAY AS WELL...WITH INVERSION
HOLDING AND WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINING LIGHT. CONTINUED
TO GO PARTLY CLOUDY FOR FRIDAY IN THE NORTH AND WEST...THOUGH THIS
MAY NEED TO BE RAISED IF INVERSION HOLDS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH AROUND 30 IN MOST AREAS...A BIT WARMER
NEAR THE LAKE.

SHORT TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
MEDIUM.

EARLY PART OF THE PERIOD WILL BE MAINLY DRY...THOUGH THERE WILL BE
A CHANCE FOR A FEW FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AS COLUMN
BRIEFLY MOISTENS AND OMEGA INCREASES WITH SHORT WAVE CROSSING
REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON. PCPN CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE AS WARM
ADVECTION AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION KICKS IN...BRINGING A
CHANCE OF DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE TOT HE FAR WEST SATURDAY
NIGHT...CHANGING OVER TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
MEDIUM.

THIS PERIOD MARKED BY PERIODS OF VARYING PRECIPITATION TYPES...MAINLY
A RAIN SNOW MIX...AS DEEPENING 500 MB LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW CROSS THE REGION. MODEL TIMING AND CONFIGURATION DIFFERENCES
WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON TYPES. BLENDED SOLUTION BRINGS A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW
MIX AHEAD OF LOW...WITH A PERIOD OF ALL RAIN IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST
MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND PERIODS OF ALL LIGHT SNOW IN THE NW CWA AT
NIGHT. PCPN GOES TO ALL SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUES AS IT
TAPERS OFF FROM SW TO NE WEDNESDAY. AGAIN MODEL TIMING/STRENGTH
DIFFERENCES BRING VARYING SNOW TOTALS...BUT BLENDED SOLUTION
BRINGS A GOOD CHANCE FOR AT LEAST 1 INCH OF SNOW BY THURSDAY
MORNING.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS TO REMAIN ACROSS TAF SITES FOR MOST OF
TONIGHT...AND PERHAPS FOR MOST OF FRIDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF THE MVFR CEILINGS
MIXING OUT BY 13Z FRIDAY MORNING AT MADISON AND WAUKESHA...THOUGH
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THIS. MILWAUKEE AND KENOSHA SHOULD REMAIN
IN THE MVFR CEILINGS ON FRIDAY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEHRING
TONIGHT/FRIDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...WOOD
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...REM





000
FXUS63 KMKX 190344
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
944 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AND FLURRIES IS NOW MOSTLY
LOCATED SOUTH OF A LINE FROM JEFFERSON TO MILWAUKEE WITH POSSIBLE
AREAS STILL IN DANE COUNTY. THE MIXED PCPN IS ON THE FAR WRN END
OF A WEST TO EAST SFC TROUGH THAT WILL SHIFT SWD BY
MIDNIGHT...MARKING THE END OF THE PCPN. A WEDGE OF DRY SHOULD ALSO
CONTINUE SWD OVER ERN WI TNT BUT THE STRATUS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WI INTO FRI.

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...ANY LINGERING FLURRIES OR FREEZING DRIZZLE
SHOULD END BY MIDNIGHT FOR KMSN AND SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR
KENW. KUES AND KMKE SHOULD REMAIN DRY. DRIER AIR AND AN AREA OF
CLEARING WILL MOVE SWD OVER FAR ERN WI TNT WHILE THE STRATUS
REMAINS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WI THROUGH FRI AM. THUS EXPECT MORE SCT
CLOUD COVER OVER THE ERN WI TAF SITES FOR FRI BUT MVFR CIGS
REMAIN FOR KMSN...BUT POSSIBLY GOING SCATTERED DURING THE
AFTERNOON.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

NO LONGER EXPECTING LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE TO OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA.
VERY LIGHT REFLECTIVITY ON RADAR NOT VERIFYING ANY PRECIPITATION
WITH THE AUTOMATED SITES. MEDIA AND PUBLIC REPORTS...AS WELL AS
COUNTY DISPATCHERS...NOT REPORTING ISSUES WITH SLICK ROADS ONCE ROAD
TREATMENTS WERE APPLIED.

AREA OF LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA.
THERE MAY BE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING IN THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES...GIVEN
BACK EDGE OF CLOUDS SLIDING SOUTHWEST TOWARD THAT AREA. SOME
UNCERTAINTY HERE...AS LIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
INVERSION TO LINGER AND KEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED. OPTED TO
REMAIN PESSIMISTIC WITH CLOUDS TONIGHT. LOWS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE
LOWER 20S IN MOST AREAS...A BIT WARMER NEAR THE LAKE.

MODELS SUGGEST LOW CLOUDS MAY LINGER FRIDAY AS WELL...WITH INVERSION
HOLDING AND WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINING LIGHT. CONTINUED
TO GO PARTLY CLOUDY FOR FRIDAY IN THE NORTH AND WEST...THOUGH THIS
MAY NEED TO BE RAISED IF INVERSION HOLDS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH AROUND 30 IN MOST AREAS...A BIT WARMER
NEAR THE LAKE.

SHORT TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
MEDIUM.

EARLY PART OF THE PERIOD WILL BE MAINLY DRY...THOUGH THERE WILL BE
A CHANCE FOR A FEW FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AS COLUMN
BRIEFLY MOISTENS AND OMEGA INCREASES WITH SHORT WAVE CROSSING
REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON. PCPN CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE AS WARM
ADVECTION AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION KICKS IN...BRINGING A
CHANCE OF DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE TOT HE FAR WEST SATURDAY
NIGHT...CHANGING OVER TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
MEDIUM.

THIS PERIOD MARKED BY PERIODS OF VARYING PRECIPITATION TYPES...MAINLY
A RAIN SNOW MIX...AS DEEPENING 500 MB LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW CROSS THE REGION. MODEL TIMING AND CONFIGURATION DIFFERENCES
WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON TYPES. BLENDED SOLUTION BRINGS A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW
MIX AHEAD OF LOW...WITH A PERIOD OF ALL RAIN IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST
MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND PERIODS OF ALL LIGHT SNOW IN THE NW CWA AT
NIGHT. PCPN GOES TO ALL SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUES AS IT
TAPERS OFF FROM SW TO NE WEDNESDAY. AGAIN MODEL TIMING/STRENGTH
DIFFERENCES BRING VARYING SNOW TOTALS...BUT BLENDED SOLUTION
BRINGS A GOOD CHANCE FOR AT LEAST 1 INCH OF SNOW BY THURSDAY
MORNING.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS TO REMAIN ACROSS TAF SITES FOR MOST OF
TONIGHT...AND PERHAPS FOR MOST OF FRIDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF THE MVFR CEILINGS
MIXING OUT BY 13Z FRIDAY MORNING AT MADISON AND WAUKESHA...THOUGH
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THIS. MILWAUKEE AND KENOSHA SHOULD REMAIN
IN THE MVFR CEILINGS ON FRIDAY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEHRING
TONIGHT/FRIDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...WOOD
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...REM




000
FXUS63 KMKX 190344
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
944 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AND FLURRIES IS NOW MOSTLY
LOCATED SOUTH OF A LINE FROM JEFFERSON TO MILWAUKEE WITH POSSIBLE
AREAS STILL IN DANE COUNTY. THE MIXED PCPN IS ON THE FAR WRN END
OF A WEST TO EAST SFC TROUGH THAT WILL SHIFT SWD BY
MIDNIGHT...MARKING THE END OF THE PCPN. A WEDGE OF DRY SHOULD ALSO
CONTINUE SWD OVER ERN WI TNT BUT THE STRATUS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WI INTO FRI.

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...ANY LINGERING FLURRIES OR FREEZING DRIZZLE
SHOULD END BY MIDNIGHT FOR KMSN AND SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR
KENW. KUES AND KMKE SHOULD REMAIN DRY. DRIER AIR AND AN AREA OF
CLEARING WILL MOVE SWD OVER FAR ERN WI TNT WHILE THE STRATUS
REMAINS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WI THROUGH FRI AM. THUS EXPECT MORE SCT
CLOUD COVER OVER THE ERN WI TAF SITES FOR FRI BUT MVFR CIGS
REMAIN FOR KMSN...BUT POSSIBLY GOING SCATTERED DURING THE
AFTERNOON.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

NO LONGER EXPECTING LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE TO OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA.
VERY LIGHT REFLECTIVITY ON RADAR NOT VERIFYING ANY PRECIPITATION
WITH THE AUTOMATED SITES. MEDIA AND PUBLIC REPORTS...AS WELL AS
COUNTY DISPATCHERS...NOT REPORTING ISSUES WITH SLICK ROADS ONCE ROAD
TREATMENTS WERE APPLIED.

AREA OF LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA.
THERE MAY BE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING IN THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES...GIVEN
BACK EDGE OF CLOUDS SLIDING SOUTHWEST TOWARD THAT AREA. SOME
UNCERTAINTY HERE...AS LIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
INVERSION TO LINGER AND KEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED. OPTED TO
REMAIN PESSIMISTIC WITH CLOUDS TONIGHT. LOWS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE
LOWER 20S IN MOST AREAS...A BIT WARMER NEAR THE LAKE.

MODELS SUGGEST LOW CLOUDS MAY LINGER FRIDAY AS WELL...WITH INVERSION
HOLDING AND WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINING LIGHT. CONTINUED
TO GO PARTLY CLOUDY FOR FRIDAY IN THE NORTH AND WEST...THOUGH THIS
MAY NEED TO BE RAISED IF INVERSION HOLDS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH AROUND 30 IN MOST AREAS...A BIT WARMER
NEAR THE LAKE.

SHORT TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
MEDIUM.

EARLY PART OF THE PERIOD WILL BE MAINLY DRY...THOUGH THERE WILL BE
A CHANCE FOR A FEW FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AS COLUMN
BRIEFLY MOISTENS AND OMEGA INCREASES WITH SHORT WAVE CROSSING
REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON. PCPN CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE AS WARM
ADVECTION AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION KICKS IN...BRINGING A
CHANCE OF DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE TOT HE FAR WEST SATURDAY
NIGHT...CHANGING OVER TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
MEDIUM.

THIS PERIOD MARKED BY PERIODS OF VARYING PRECIPITATION TYPES...MAINLY
A RAIN SNOW MIX...AS DEEPENING 500 MB LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW CROSS THE REGION. MODEL TIMING AND CONFIGURATION DIFFERENCES
WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON TYPES. BLENDED SOLUTION BRINGS A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW
MIX AHEAD OF LOW...WITH A PERIOD OF ALL RAIN IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST
MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND PERIODS OF ALL LIGHT SNOW IN THE NW CWA AT
NIGHT. PCPN GOES TO ALL SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUES AS IT
TAPERS OFF FROM SW TO NE WEDNESDAY. AGAIN MODEL TIMING/STRENGTH
DIFFERENCES BRING VARYING SNOW TOTALS...BUT BLENDED SOLUTION
BRINGS A GOOD CHANCE FOR AT LEAST 1 INCH OF SNOW BY THURSDAY
MORNING.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS TO REMAIN ACROSS TAF SITES FOR MOST OF
TONIGHT...AND PERHAPS FOR MOST OF FRIDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF THE MVFR CEILINGS
MIXING OUT BY 13Z FRIDAY MORNING AT MADISON AND WAUKESHA...THOUGH
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THIS. MILWAUKEE AND KENOSHA SHOULD REMAIN
IN THE MVFR CEILINGS ON FRIDAY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEHRING
TONIGHT/FRIDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...WOOD
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...REM





000
FXUS63 KMKX 190344
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
944 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AND FLURRIES IS NOW MOSTLY
LOCATED SOUTH OF A LINE FROM JEFFERSON TO MILWAUKEE WITH POSSIBLE
AREAS STILL IN DANE COUNTY. THE MIXED PCPN IS ON THE FAR WRN END
OF A WEST TO EAST SFC TROUGH THAT WILL SHIFT SWD BY
MIDNIGHT...MARKING THE END OF THE PCPN. A WEDGE OF DRY SHOULD ALSO
CONTINUE SWD OVER ERN WI TNT BUT THE STRATUS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WI INTO FRI.

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...ANY LINGERING FLURRIES OR FREEZING DRIZZLE
SHOULD END BY MIDNIGHT FOR KMSN AND SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR
KENW. KUES AND KMKE SHOULD REMAIN DRY. DRIER AIR AND AN AREA OF
CLEARING WILL MOVE SWD OVER FAR ERN WI TNT WHILE THE STRATUS
REMAINS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WI THROUGH FRI AM. THUS EXPECT MORE SCT
CLOUD COVER OVER THE ERN WI TAF SITES FOR FRI BUT MVFR CIGS
REMAIN FOR KMSN...BUT POSSIBLY GOING SCATTERED DURING THE
AFTERNOON.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

NO LONGER EXPECTING LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE TO OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA.
VERY LIGHT REFLECTIVITY ON RADAR NOT VERIFYING ANY PRECIPITATION
WITH THE AUTOMATED SITES. MEDIA AND PUBLIC REPORTS...AS WELL AS
COUNTY DISPATCHERS...NOT REPORTING ISSUES WITH SLICK ROADS ONCE ROAD
TREATMENTS WERE APPLIED.

AREA OF LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA.
THERE MAY BE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING IN THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES...GIVEN
BACK EDGE OF CLOUDS SLIDING SOUTHWEST TOWARD THAT AREA. SOME
UNCERTAINTY HERE...AS LIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
INVERSION TO LINGER AND KEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED. OPTED TO
REMAIN PESSIMISTIC WITH CLOUDS TONIGHT. LOWS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE
LOWER 20S IN MOST AREAS...A BIT WARMER NEAR THE LAKE.

MODELS SUGGEST LOW CLOUDS MAY LINGER FRIDAY AS WELL...WITH INVERSION
HOLDING AND WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINING LIGHT. CONTINUED
TO GO PARTLY CLOUDY FOR FRIDAY IN THE NORTH AND WEST...THOUGH THIS
MAY NEED TO BE RAISED IF INVERSION HOLDS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH AROUND 30 IN MOST AREAS...A BIT WARMER
NEAR THE LAKE.

SHORT TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
MEDIUM.

EARLY PART OF THE PERIOD WILL BE MAINLY DRY...THOUGH THERE WILL BE
A CHANCE FOR A FEW FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AS COLUMN
BRIEFLY MOISTENS AND OMEGA INCREASES WITH SHORT WAVE CROSSING
REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON. PCPN CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE AS WARM
ADVECTION AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION KICKS IN...BRINGING A
CHANCE OF DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE TOT HE FAR WEST SATURDAY
NIGHT...CHANGING OVER TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
MEDIUM.

THIS PERIOD MARKED BY PERIODS OF VARYING PRECIPITATION TYPES...MAINLY
A RAIN SNOW MIX...AS DEEPENING 500 MB LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW CROSS THE REGION. MODEL TIMING AND CONFIGURATION DIFFERENCES
WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON TYPES. BLENDED SOLUTION BRINGS A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW
MIX AHEAD OF LOW...WITH A PERIOD OF ALL RAIN IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST
MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND PERIODS OF ALL LIGHT SNOW IN THE NW CWA AT
NIGHT. PCPN GOES TO ALL SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUES AS IT
TAPERS OFF FROM SW TO NE WEDNESDAY. AGAIN MODEL TIMING/STRENGTH
DIFFERENCES BRING VARYING SNOW TOTALS...BUT BLENDED SOLUTION
BRINGS A GOOD CHANCE FOR AT LEAST 1 INCH OF SNOW BY THURSDAY
MORNING.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS TO REMAIN ACROSS TAF SITES FOR MOST OF
TONIGHT...AND PERHAPS FOR MOST OF FRIDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF THE MVFR CEILINGS
MIXING OUT BY 13Z FRIDAY MORNING AT MADISON AND WAUKESHA...THOUGH
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THIS. MILWAUKEE AND KENOSHA SHOULD REMAIN
IN THE MVFR CEILINGS ON FRIDAY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEHRING
TONIGHT/FRIDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...WOOD
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...REM




000
FXUS63 KMKX 182203
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
403 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

NO LONGER EXPECTING LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE TO OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA.
VERY LIGHT REFLECTIVITY ON RADAR NOT VERIFYING ANY PRECIPITATION
WITH THE AUTOMATED SITES. MEDIA AND PUBLIC REPORTS...AS WELL AS
COUNTY DISPATCHERS...NOT REPORTING ISSUES WITH SLICK ROADS ONCE ROAD
TREATMENTS WERE APPLIED.

AREA OF LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA.
THERE MAY BE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING IN THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES...GIVEN
BACK EDGE OF CLOUDS SLIDING SOUTHWEST TOWARD THAT AREA. SOME
UNCERTAINTY HERE...AS LIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
INVERSION TO LINGER AND KEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED. OPTED TO
REMAIN PESSIMISTIC WITH CLOUDS TONIGHT. LOWS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE
LOWER 20S IN MOST AREAS...A BIT WARMER NEAR THE LAKE.

MODELS SUGGEST LOW CLOUDS MAY LINGER FRIDAY AS WELL...WITH INVERSION
HOLDING AND WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINING LIGHT. CONTINUED
TO GO PARTLY CLOUDY FOR FRIDAY IN THE NORTH AND WEST...THOUGH THIS
MAY NEED TO BE RAISED IF INVERSION HOLDS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH AROUND 30 IN MOST AREAS...A BIT WARMER
NEAR THE LAKE.

.SHORT TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
MEDIUM.

EARLY PART OF THE PERIOD WILL BE MAINLY DRY...THOUGH THERE WILL BE
A CHANCE FOR A FEW FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AS COLUMN
BRIEFLY MOISTENS AND OMEGA INCREASES WITH SHORT WAVE CROSSING
REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON. PCPN CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE AS WARM
ADVECTION AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION KICKS IN...BRINGING A
CHANCE OF DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE TOT HE FAR WEST SATURDAY
NIGHT...CHANGING OVER TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
MEDIUM.

THIS PERIOD MARKED BY PERIODS OF VARYING PRECIPITATION TYPES...MAINLY
A RAIN SNOW MIX...AS DEEPENING 500 MB LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW CROSS THE REGION. MODEL TIMING AND CONFIGURATION DIFFERENCES
WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON TYPES. BLENDED SOLUTION BRINGS A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW
MIX AHEAD OF LOW...WITH A PERIOD OF ALL RAIN IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST
MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND PERIODS OF ALL LIGHT SNOW IN THE NW CWA AT
NIGHT. PCPN GOES TO ALL SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUES AS IT
TAPERS OFF FROM SW TO NE WEDNESDAY. AGAIN MODEL TIMING/STRENGTH
DIFFERENCES BRING VARYING SNOW TOTALS...BUT BLENDED SOLUTION
BRINGS A GOOD CHANCE FOR AT LEAST 1 INCH OF SNOW BY THURSDAY
MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS TO REMAIN ACROSS TAF SITES FOR MOST OF
TONIGHT...AND PERHAPS FOR MOST OF FRIDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF THE MVFR CEILINGS
MIXING OUT BY 13Z FRIDAY MORNING AT MADISON AND WAUKESHA...THOUGH
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THIS. MILWAUKEE AND KENOSHA SHOULD REMAIN
IN THE MVFR CEILINGS ON FRIDAY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TONIGHT/FRIDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...WOOD
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...REM




000
FXUS63 KMKX 182203
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
403 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

NO LONGER EXPECTING LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE TO OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA.
VERY LIGHT REFLECTIVITY ON RADAR NOT VERIFYING ANY PRECIPITATION
WITH THE AUTOMATED SITES. MEDIA AND PUBLIC REPORTS...AS WELL AS
COUNTY DISPATCHERS...NOT REPORTING ISSUES WITH SLICK ROADS ONCE ROAD
TREATMENTS WERE APPLIED.

AREA OF LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA.
THERE MAY BE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING IN THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES...GIVEN
BACK EDGE OF CLOUDS SLIDING SOUTHWEST TOWARD THAT AREA. SOME
UNCERTAINTY HERE...AS LIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
INVERSION TO LINGER AND KEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED. OPTED TO
REMAIN PESSIMISTIC WITH CLOUDS TONIGHT. LOWS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE
LOWER 20S IN MOST AREAS...A BIT WARMER NEAR THE LAKE.

MODELS SUGGEST LOW CLOUDS MAY LINGER FRIDAY AS WELL...WITH INVERSION
HOLDING AND WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINING LIGHT. CONTINUED
TO GO PARTLY CLOUDY FOR FRIDAY IN THE NORTH AND WEST...THOUGH THIS
MAY NEED TO BE RAISED IF INVERSION HOLDS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH AROUND 30 IN MOST AREAS...A BIT WARMER
NEAR THE LAKE.

.SHORT TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
MEDIUM.

EARLY PART OF THE PERIOD WILL BE MAINLY DRY...THOUGH THERE WILL BE
A CHANCE FOR A FEW FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AS COLUMN
BRIEFLY MOISTENS AND OMEGA INCREASES WITH SHORT WAVE CROSSING
REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON. PCPN CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE AS WARM
ADVECTION AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION KICKS IN...BRINGING A
CHANCE OF DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE TOT HE FAR WEST SATURDAY
NIGHT...CHANGING OVER TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
MEDIUM.

THIS PERIOD MARKED BY PERIODS OF VARYING PRECIPITATION TYPES...MAINLY
A RAIN SNOW MIX...AS DEEPENING 500 MB LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW CROSS THE REGION. MODEL TIMING AND CONFIGURATION DIFFERENCES
WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON TYPES. BLENDED SOLUTION BRINGS A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW
MIX AHEAD OF LOW...WITH A PERIOD OF ALL RAIN IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST
MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND PERIODS OF ALL LIGHT SNOW IN THE NW CWA AT
NIGHT. PCPN GOES TO ALL SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUES AS IT
TAPERS OFF FROM SW TO NE WEDNESDAY. AGAIN MODEL TIMING/STRENGTH
DIFFERENCES BRING VARYING SNOW TOTALS...BUT BLENDED SOLUTION
BRINGS A GOOD CHANCE FOR AT LEAST 1 INCH OF SNOW BY THURSDAY
MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS TO REMAIN ACROSS TAF SITES FOR MOST OF
TONIGHT...AND PERHAPS FOR MOST OF FRIDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF THE MVFR CEILINGS
MIXING OUT BY 13Z FRIDAY MORNING AT MADISON AND WAUKESHA...THOUGH
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THIS. MILWAUKEE AND KENOSHA SHOULD REMAIN
IN THE MVFR CEILINGS ON FRIDAY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TONIGHT/FRIDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...WOOD
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...REM





000
FXUS63 KMKX 181811 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1211 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...

THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR
WASHINGTON...OZAUKEE...WAUKESHA AND MILWAUKEE COUNTIES UNTIL 3 PM
CST THIS AFTERNOON. AREAS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ARE CAUSING ICING
ON ROADS ACROSS THESE COUNTIES...AND SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
FEW HOURS...UNTIL SURFACE TROUGH SLIDES SOUTH OF THE AREA.
MILWAUKEE FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SUPPORT SUPERCOOLED DROPLET
FORMATION INTO MID AFTERNOON.

RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THIS LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY BE SPREADING
WESTWARD INTO DODGE AND JEFFERSON COUNTIES...PERHAPS FURTHER WEST.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR SOCIAL MEDIA REPORTS AND ROAD
CONDITIONS...AND MAY ADD MORE COUNTIES TO THE ADVISORY IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

THE FREEZING DRIZZLE SHOULD END BY MID AFTERNOON...AS SURFACE
TROUGH SLIDES SOUTH OF THE AREA. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS HERE WITH
THE ENDING TIME. OTHERWISE...EXPECT CLOUDY SKIES WITH SOME
FLURRIES THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 20S TO
AROUND 30.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED AT TIMES AT MILWAUKEE AND
WAUKESHA UNTIL 21Z THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY CAUSE ICING ON
RUNWAYS. SCATTERED FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED OTHERWISE THIS
AFTERNOON.

EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS TO REMAIN ACROSS TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON
AND MOST OF TONIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
THERE SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF THE MVFR CEILINGS MIXING OUT BY 13Z
FRIDAY MORNING AT MADISON AND WAUKESHA...THOUGH THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THIS. MILWAUKEE AND KENOSHA SHOULD REMAIN IN
THE MVFR CEILINGS ON FRIDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS PERIOD IS CLOUD COVER.  HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
OVER WRN GRLAKES WILL SUPPRESS ANY PRECIP TO THE SOUTH FROM SHORT
WAVE PASSING ACROSS MID-MS VALLEY REGION.

NEARLY STATIONARY AREA OF STRATUS OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WI IS
BEGINNING TO INCH SLOWLY SWD LAST SEVERAL HOURS.  11-3.9 MICRON
IMAGERY SHOWING EDGE OF STRATUS HAS SAGGED INTO NRN WAUKESHA AND
JEFFERSON COUNTIES EXTENDING NORTHWEST TOWARD KDLL.  WEAK SUBSIDENCE
FROM LEFT ENTRANCE REGION OF PASSING UPPER JET MAY HAVE CONTRIBUTED
TO STRATUS REMAINING STATIONARY MUCH OF THE NIGHT...HOWEVER THIS
SUPPRESSION MOVING OFF TO THE EAST EARLY THIS MRNG.  00Z KGRB
SOUNDING SHOWED MOISTURE RELATIVELY THICK AROUND 3K FEET.  LINGERING
VERY WEAK FORCING FROM 85H CYCLONIC CURVATURE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS
TURNING A BIT MORE NORTH TO NORTHWEST TODAY.  HENCE EXPECT STRATUS
FIELD TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTH AND ENGULF MOST OF CWA THRU THE
MRNG.

NOT IMPOSSIBLE A FEW FLURRIES MAY GET SHAKEN OUT OF THE STRATUS DUE
TO VERY WEAK LIFT.  EXPECT ONLY SLOW CLEARING LATER TONIGHT INTO FRI
MRNG.

FRIDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. VERY LITTLE
STIRRING IN THE COLUMN. LOW LEVEL RH PROGS OFFER HOPE AT A BIT OF
SUNSHINE WHILE THE NAM SHOWS STRONG INVERSION AROUND 900
MILLIBARS. SOME DECREASE IN 925-850 RH NOTED DURING THE DAY SO
WILL HAVE SOME CLOUDS IN THE GRIDS BUT HOPE FOR A BIT MORE
SUNSHINE THAN WHAT THE NAM MOS IS SUGGESTING.

SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
 MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A 500 MILLIBAR SHORTWAVE MOVING FROM
IOWA INTO NORTHERN INDIANA. NAM SOUNDING SHOWS COLUMN FAIRLY MOIST
BLO 800 MILLIBARS WITH NO SATURATION NOTED IN THE FAVORED ICE
GROWTH REGION. MEANWHILE GFS SHOWS SOME MOISTENING BETWEEN 700 AND
800 MILLIBARS. WITH WEAK WAA REGIME SETTING UP WAS TEMPTED TO ADD
SOME FLURRIES OR DRIZZLE. PER COLLAB WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES WILL
LEAVE OUT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROGS SHOW THE SYNOPTICALLY FAVORED
RETURN OF STRATUS WITHIN THIS WEAK WAA REGIME.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AFFECTS THE AREA. LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION
IS ONGOING WITH SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY FLOW. THERMAL PATTERN SUGGESTS
LIGHT SNOW AS THE PRECIP TYPE WITH 850 AND 925 TEMPS AOB 0C AND
1000/500 MILLIBAR THICKNESSES 531-537DM. BETTER ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH
SATURATION NOTED IN WESTERN CWA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW
UPPER LOW PROGGD TO EVOLVE AND PLOD THROUGH GREAT LAKES THIS
PERIOD. MODELS NOW SHOW SECONDARY AND STRONGER LOW DEVELOPMENT
ALONG EAST COAST. GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS 00Z
RUN BUT CONSISTENCY HASN/T BEEN ESTABLISHED AS YET SO CONFIDENCE
STILL A BIT SHAKY THIS FAR OUT. CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE THAT THIS IS
NOT THE FINAL ANSWER CONSIDERING THIS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPMENT IS IN THE DAY 6/7 TIMEFRAME. HAVING
SAID THAT...SHOULD THIS 00Z MODEL CONSENSUS SHOW STAYING POWER WE
WOULD BE LOOKING AT A WARMER SCENARIO MONDAY INTO AT LEAST THE
FIRST PART OF TUESDAY BEFORE COLDER AIR WRAPS IN AND CHANGES
PRECIP TYPE TO ALL LIGHT SNOW FOR LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH A POTENTIAL WHITENING OF THE LANDSCAPE.


AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...EXPECT STRATUS FIELD OVER NORTHERN CWA TO SPREAD
SOUTHWARD INTO TAF SITES THIS MRNG WITH MVFR CIGS THEN LIKELY TO CONTINUE
INTO TNGT. POSSIBLE A FEW LIGHT FLURRIES MAY GET SHAKEN OUT OF THE
CLOUDS BUT NO VSBY RESTRICTION IS EXPECTED.

RECENT ASCENT KMKE TAMDAR SOUNDING CONTINUED TO SHOW STRONG ELEVATED
INVERSION ABV 3.8K AND 00Z KGRB SOUNDING SHOWED THE MOISTURE WAS
RELATIVELY DEEP TO THE NORTH...AROUND 3K FT.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WIZ059-
     060-065-066.

LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WOOD
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...COLLAR





000
FXUS63 KMKX 180915
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
315 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS PERIOD IS CLOUD COVER.  HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
OVER WRN GRLAKES WILL SUPPRESS ANY PRECIP TO THE SOUTH FROM SHORT
WAVE PASSING ACROSS MID-MS VALLEY REGION.

NEARLY STATIONARY AREA OF STRATUS OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WI IS
BEGINNING TO INCH SLOWLY SWD LAST SEVERAL HOURS.  11-3.9 MICRON
IMAGERY SHOWING EDGE OF STRATUS HAS SAGGED INTO NRN WAUKESHA AND
JEFFERSON COUNTIES EXTENDING NORTHWEST TOWARD KDLL.  WEAK SUBSIDENCE
FROM LEFT ENTRANCE REGION OF PASSING UPPER JET MAY HAVE CONTRIBUTED
TO STRATUS REMAINING STATIONARY MUCH OF THE NIGHT...HOWEVER THIS
SUPPRESSION MOVING OFF TO THE EAST EARLY THIS MRNG.  00Z KGRB
SOUNDING SHOWED MOISTURE RELATIVELY THICK AROUND 3K FEET.  LINGERING
VERY WEAK FORCING FROM 85H CYCLONIC CURVATURE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS
TURNING A BIT MORE NORTH TO NORTHWEST TODAY.  HENCE EXPECT STRATUS
FIELD TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTH AND ENGULF MOST OF CWA THRU THE
MRNG.

NOT IMPOSSIBLE A FEW FLURRIES MAY GET SHAKEN OUT OF THE STRATUS DUE
TO VERY WEAK LIFT.  EXPECT ONLY SLOW CLEARING LATER TONIGHT INTO FRI
MRNG.

.FRIDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. VERY LITTLE
STIRRING IN THE COLUMN. LOW LEVEL RH PROGS OFFER HOPE AT A BIT OF
SUNSHINE WHILE THE NAM SHOWS STRONG INVERSION AROUND 900
MILLIBARS. SOME DECREASE IN 925-850 RH NOTED DURING THE DAY SO
WILL HAVE SOME CLOUDS IN THE GRIDS BUT HOPE FOR A BIT MORE
SUNSHINE THAN WHAT THE NAM MOS IS SUGGESTING.

.SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
 MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A 500 MILLIBAR SHORTWAVE MOVING FROM
IOWA INTO NORTHERN INDIANA. NAM SOUNDING SHOWS COLUMN FAIRLY MOIST
BLO 800 MILLIBARS WITH NO SATURATION NOTED IN THE FAVORED ICE
GROWTH REGION. MEANWHILE GFS SHOWS SOME MOISTENING BETWEEN 700 AND
800 MILLIBARS. WITH WEAK WAA REGIME SETTING UP WAS TEMPTED TO ADD
SOME FLURRIES OR DRIZZLE. PER COLLAB WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES WILL
LEAVE OUT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROGS SHOW THE SYNOPTICALLY FAVORED
RETURN OF STRATUS WITHIN THIS WEAK WAA REGIME.

.SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AFFECTS THE AREA. LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION
IS ONGOING WITH SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY FLOW. THERMAL PATTERN SUGGESTS
LIGHT SNOW AS THE PRECIP TYPE WITH 850 AND 925 TEMPS AOB 0C AND
1000/500 MILLIBAR THICKNESSES 531-537DM. BETTER ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH
SATURATION NOTED IN WESTERN CWA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS.

.MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW
UPPER LOW PROGGD TO EVOLVE AND PLOD THROUGH GREAT LAKES THIS
PERIOD. MODELS NOW SHOW SECONDARY AND STRONGER LOW DEVELOPMENT
ALONG EAST COAST. GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS 00Z
RUN BUT CONSISTENCY HASN/T BEEN ESTABLISHED AS YET SO CONFIDENCE
STILL A BIT SHAKY THIS FAR OUT. CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE THAT THIS IS
NOT THE FINAL ANSWER CONSIDERING THIS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPMENT IS IN THE DAY 6/7 TIMEFRAME. HAVING
SAID THAT...SHOULD THIS 00Z MODEL CONSENSUS SHOW STAYING POWER WE
WOULD BE LOOKING AT A WARMER SCENARIO MONDAY INTO AT LEAST THE
FIRST PART OF TUESDAY BEFORE COLDER AIR WRAPS IN AND CHANGES
PRECIP TYPE TO ALL LIGHT SNOW FOR LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH A POTENTIAL WHITENING OF THE LANDSCAPE.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...EXPECT STRATUS FIELD OVER NORTHERN CWA TO SPREAD
SOUTHWARD INTO TAF SITES THIS MRNG WITH MVFR CIGS THEN LIKELY TO CONTINUE
INTO TNGT. POSSIBLE A FEW LIGHT FLURRIES MAY GET SHAKEN OUT OF THE
CLOUDS BUT NO VSBY RESTRICTION IS EXPECTED.

RECENT ASCENT KMKE TAMDAR SOUNDING CONTINUED TO SHOW STRONG ELEVATED
INVERSION ABV 3.8K AND 00Z KGRB SOUNDING SHOWED THE MOISTURE WAS
RELATIVELY DEEP TO THE NORTH...AROUND 3K FT.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...COLLAR




000
FXUS63 KMKX 180915
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
315 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS PERIOD IS CLOUD COVER.  HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
OVER WRN GRLAKES WILL SUPPRESS ANY PRECIP TO THE SOUTH FROM SHORT
WAVE PASSING ACROSS MID-MS VALLEY REGION.

NEARLY STATIONARY AREA OF STRATUS OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WI IS
BEGINNING TO INCH SLOWLY SWD LAST SEVERAL HOURS.  11-3.9 MICRON
IMAGERY SHOWING EDGE OF STRATUS HAS SAGGED INTO NRN WAUKESHA AND
JEFFERSON COUNTIES EXTENDING NORTHWEST TOWARD KDLL.  WEAK SUBSIDENCE
FROM LEFT ENTRANCE REGION OF PASSING UPPER JET MAY HAVE CONTRIBUTED
TO STRATUS REMAINING STATIONARY MUCH OF THE NIGHT...HOWEVER THIS
SUPPRESSION MOVING OFF TO THE EAST EARLY THIS MRNG.  00Z KGRB
SOUNDING SHOWED MOISTURE RELATIVELY THICK AROUND 3K FEET.  LINGERING
VERY WEAK FORCING FROM 85H CYCLONIC CURVATURE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS
TURNING A BIT MORE NORTH TO NORTHWEST TODAY.  HENCE EXPECT STRATUS
FIELD TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTH AND ENGULF MOST OF CWA THRU THE
MRNG.

NOT IMPOSSIBLE A FEW FLURRIES MAY GET SHAKEN OUT OF THE STRATUS DUE
TO VERY WEAK LIFT.  EXPECT ONLY SLOW CLEARING LATER TONIGHT INTO FRI
MRNG.

.FRIDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. VERY LITTLE
STIRRING IN THE COLUMN. LOW LEVEL RH PROGS OFFER HOPE AT A BIT OF
SUNSHINE WHILE THE NAM SHOWS STRONG INVERSION AROUND 900
MILLIBARS. SOME DECREASE IN 925-850 RH NOTED DURING THE DAY SO
WILL HAVE SOME CLOUDS IN THE GRIDS BUT HOPE FOR A BIT MORE
SUNSHINE THAN WHAT THE NAM MOS IS SUGGESTING.

.SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
 MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A 500 MILLIBAR SHORTWAVE MOVING FROM
IOWA INTO NORTHERN INDIANA. NAM SOUNDING SHOWS COLUMN FAIRLY MOIST
BLO 800 MILLIBARS WITH NO SATURATION NOTED IN THE FAVORED ICE
GROWTH REGION. MEANWHILE GFS SHOWS SOME MOISTENING BETWEEN 700 AND
800 MILLIBARS. WITH WEAK WAA REGIME SETTING UP WAS TEMPTED TO ADD
SOME FLURRIES OR DRIZZLE. PER COLLAB WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES WILL
LEAVE OUT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROGS SHOW THE SYNOPTICALLY FAVORED
RETURN OF STRATUS WITHIN THIS WEAK WAA REGIME.

.SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AFFECTS THE AREA. LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION
IS ONGOING WITH SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY FLOW. THERMAL PATTERN SUGGESTS
LIGHT SNOW AS THE PRECIP TYPE WITH 850 AND 925 TEMPS AOB 0C AND
1000/500 MILLIBAR THICKNESSES 531-537DM. BETTER ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH
SATURATION NOTED IN WESTERN CWA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS.

.MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW
UPPER LOW PROGGD TO EVOLVE AND PLOD THROUGH GREAT LAKES THIS
PERIOD. MODELS NOW SHOW SECONDARY AND STRONGER LOW DEVELOPMENT
ALONG EAST COAST. GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS 00Z
RUN BUT CONSISTENCY HASN/T BEEN ESTABLISHED AS YET SO CONFIDENCE
STILL A BIT SHAKY THIS FAR OUT. CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE THAT THIS IS
NOT THE FINAL ANSWER CONSIDERING THIS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPMENT IS IN THE DAY 6/7 TIMEFRAME. HAVING
SAID THAT...SHOULD THIS 00Z MODEL CONSENSUS SHOW STAYING POWER WE
WOULD BE LOOKING AT A WARMER SCENARIO MONDAY INTO AT LEAST THE
FIRST PART OF TUESDAY BEFORE COLDER AIR WRAPS IN AND CHANGES
PRECIP TYPE TO ALL LIGHT SNOW FOR LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH A POTENTIAL WHITENING OF THE LANDSCAPE.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...EXPECT STRATUS FIELD OVER NORTHERN CWA TO SPREAD
SOUTHWARD INTO TAF SITES THIS MRNG WITH MVFR CIGS THEN LIKELY TO CONTINUE
INTO TNGT. POSSIBLE A FEW LIGHT FLURRIES MAY GET SHAKEN OUT OF THE
CLOUDS BUT NO VSBY RESTRICTION IS EXPECTED.

RECENT ASCENT KMKE TAMDAR SOUNDING CONTINUED TO SHOW STRONG ELEVATED
INVERSION ABV 3.8K AND 00Z KGRB SOUNDING SHOWED THE MOISTURE WAS
RELATIVELY DEEP TO THE NORTH...AROUND 3K FT.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...COLLAR




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