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000
FXUS63 KMKX 310858 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
358 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

ADDED TODAY/TONIGHT/AVIATION/MARINE GROUPS

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

FIRST ISSUE ARE THE MODERATE SNOW SHOWERS THAT WILL SHIFT EAST
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH AROUND 13Z THIS MORNING. THIS
AREA IS LOCATED FROM NEAR VOLK FIELD EAST TO NEAR GREEN BAY INTO
SOUTHERN DOOR COUNTY. THESE WERE BEING DRIVEN BY A STRONG 500 MB
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH. MOST MESOSCALE MODELS TAKE THESE
SNOW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA BY 13Z.

AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM RAP/HRRR/NAM/GFS SHOWING LOW LEVEL
SATURATION WITHIN DENDRITE GROWTH ZONE...SO MODERATE INTENSITY
SHOULD PERSIST. A QUICK 0.1 OR 0.2 INCHES OF SNOWFALL ON GRASSY
AREAS ARE POSSIBLE AS THEY MOVE THROUGH. ROADS SHOULD JUST REMAIN
WET...AS ROAD TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING. THESE WILL HAVE AN
EFFECT ON THE MORNING COMMUTE ACROSS THE AREA...BUT SHOULD BE ABLE
TO HANDLE WITH NOWCASTS/SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS.

NEXT ISSUE WILL BE WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP INTO
THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE AREA...ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION PUSH BEHIND LOW PRESSURE TO THE EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW
STRONG NORTH WINDS TO LINGER TODAY ACROSS THE AREA.

AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 25 KNOTS AND
GUSTS TO 40 TO 45 KNOTS ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES...SOMEWHAT LOWER
TO THE WEST. THUS...WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES FROM 12Z TO 23Z TODAY IN
THE EAST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX TONIGHT FROM WEST TO
EAST...ALLOWING WINDS TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN IN THE WEST. EASTERN AREAS
WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE EVENING...SLOWLY WEAKENING LATER IN
THE NIGHT.

LAST ISSUE IS THE SYNOPTIC/MESOSCALE MODELS SHOWING LIGHT LAKE
EFFECT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING SOUTH OF MILWAUKEE NEAR THE LAKE
THROUGH TODAY...WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT. ONSHORE LOW LEVEL
FLOW WITH VERY FAVORABLE DELTA T VALUES LINGER DURING THIS TIME.
SNOWFALL ON GRASSY AREAS MAY REACH 0.1 TO 0.2 INCHES IN THIS AREA.

925 MB TEMPERATURE FIELDS FROM MODELS SUGGEST HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO
GET OUT OF THE 30S IN MOST AREAS TODAY...WITHIN STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION REGIME. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD DROP INTO THE 20S
INLAND...AROUND 30 LAKESIDE. WIND CHILLS WILL BE IN THE 20S
TODAY...AND THE TEENS TONIGHT.

.SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
LOW LEVEL NE FLOW WITH CHILLY 850 TEMPS SUGGEST FAVORABLE ENOUGH
DELTA T TO RETAIN THE SMALL CHANCES OF LIGHT PRECIP IN THE FAR SE
CORNER TO START THE DAY. MODELS SHOW THE SHRINKING BAND OVER THE
LAKE WITH THE WESTERN EDGE CLIPPING AREAS FROM MILWAUKEE AND ON
SOUTH. UPPER TROUGH PULLS FURTHER EAST WHILE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
REMAINS IN THE PLAINS. SURFACE/850 HIGH RIDGE AXES SHIFTING INTO
ERN WI BY DAYS END. THIS WILL HELP MODIFY THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL
TROUGH WITH 850 TEMPS TRYING TO GET ABOVE ZERO CELSIUS.

.SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
SURFACE/850 HIGHS SHIFT INTO THE EASTERN U.S. WHILE MID LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS NUDGES UP ACROSS WRN WI. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW KICKS IN
WITH DRY AIRMASS CONTINUING. 925 TEMPS BUMP UPWARDS A BIT THROUGH
THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO CELSIUS. SO WARMER THAN SATURDAY WITH
MOST HIGHS REACHING AT LEAST THE UPPER 40S WITH SOME LOW 50S.

.MONDAY AND TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW
MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS INTO THE EASTERN LAKES AS 500 FLOW
TURNS MORE SOUTHWEST. SURFACE FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE
PLAINS. APPEARS 850 JET DOES INCREASE MOISTURE INTO SRN WI. THE
GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS ON MONDAY WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF
SHOWS MORE OF A DELAY UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT. THE GFS MAINTAINS THE
LOWER LOOK OF THE SURFACE FRONT KEEPING PRECIP GOING INTO TUESDAY
MORNING WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS JUST SOME LIGHT LINGERING RAIN IN
THE FAR SOUTHEAST TUESDAY MORNING. SO STILL SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES TO WORK OUT SO WILL NOT DEVIATE MUCH FROM THE
SUPERBLEND POPS.

.WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
QUICK MOVING PATTERN CONTINUES AS STRONGER 500 FLOW PERSISTS AND
MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN RACING YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
ACROSS THE AREA THIS PERIOD. SURFACE LOW WELL NORTH AND MUCH OF
THE QPF IS ALSO NORTH. OUR NORTHERN CWA IS A CLOSE CALL SO HAVE
KEPT SOME SMALL POPS THERE BUT WENT DRY IN SOUTH PER COLLABORATION
WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.

.THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
COLD ADVECTION PATTERN LINGERS FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH NW
WINDS. HOWEVER SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN WITH TIME RESULTING IN
LIGHTER WINDS WITH TIME THOUGH A CHILLY DAY IS EXPECTED WITH 925
TEMPS JUST A SMIDGE ABOVE ZERO CELSIUS.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

BANDS OF MODERATE SNOW SHOWERS WILL SLIDE SOUTH SOUTHEAST ACROSS TAF
SITES BETWEEN 09Z AND 13Z THIS MORNING. A QUICK 0.1 OR 0.2 INCHES OF
SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE ON GRASSY AREAS...BUT THE RUNWAYS SHOULD REMAIN
ABOVE FREEZING AND BE JUST WET. VISIBILITIES MAY DROP TO 1/2 MILE AT
TIMES...PREVAILING 1 TO 2 MILES...AROUND OR BELOW ALTERNATE
MINIMUMS. CEILINGS SHOULD DROP INTO MVFR CATEGORY AS WELL...LASTING
INTO THE MIDDLE MORNING HOURS.

MVFR CLOUDS WILL BECOME VFR AND GRADUALLY MIX OUT AS THE DAY GOES
ON...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES.
AN EXCEPTION WILL BE AT KENOSHA AND SOUTH OF MILWAUKEE...WHERE LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDS AND SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER
TODAY...WITH SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS
WITH ANOTHER 0.1 INCHES OF SNOWFALL ON GRASSY AREAS IS POSSIBLE AT
KENOSHA.

STRONG WINDS TODAY WILL BE NORTHERLY IN THE 20 TO 25 KNOT
RANGE...HIGHEST AT THE EASTERN SITES. GUSTS UP TO 33 KNOTS AT
MADISON...TO AROUND 40 KNOTS AT THE EASTERN SITES...ARE EXPECTED AS
WELL. THESE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AT MADISON TONIGHT...BUT
REMAIN GUSTY AT THE EASTERN SITES.

&&

.MARINE...

GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 06Z SATURDAY ACROSS THE
NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND
LOW PRESSURE TO THE EAST WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG NORTH WINDS TO OCCUR
TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. FREQUENT GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED. HIGH WAVES OF 10 TO 15 FEET ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME.

NORTH WIND GUSTS WILL FALL BELOW 35 KNOTS AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...BUT
REMAIN IN THE 25 TO 30 KNOT RANGE UNTIL AROUND 15Z SATURDAY. WAVES
WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE BELOW 4 FEET BY SATURDAY EVENING. THUS...A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED AFTER THE GALE WARNING EXPIRES INTO
SATURDAY EVENING.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR WIZ051-052-059-060-065-066-070>072.

LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...WOOD
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...COLLAR





000
FXUS63 KMKX 310828
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
328 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...COMING SOON.

.SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
LOW LEVEL NE FLOW WITH CHILLY 850 TEMPS SUGGEST FAVORABLE ENOUGH
DELTA T TO RETAIN THE SMALL CHANCES OF LIGHT PRECIP IN THE FAR SE
CORNER TO START THE DAY. MODELS SHOW THE SHRINKING BAND OVER THE
LAKE WITH THE WESTERN EDGE CLIPPING AREAS FROM MILWAUKEE AND ON
SOUTH. UPPER TROUGH PULLS FURTHER EAST WHILE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
REMAINS IN THE PLAINS. SURFACE/850 HIGH RIDGE AXES SHIFTING INTO
ERN WI BY DAYS END. THIS WILL HELP MODIFY THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL
TROUGH WITH 850 TEMPS TRYING TO GET ABOVE ZERO CELSIUS.

.SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
SURFACE/850 HIGHS SHIFT INTO THE EASTERN U.S. WHILE MID LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS NUDGES UP ACROSS WRN WI. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW KICKS IN
WITH DRY AIRMASS CONTINUING. 925 TEMPS BUMP UPWARDS A BIT THROUGH
THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO CELSIUS. SO WARMER THAN SATURDAY WITH
MOST HIGHS REACHING AT LEAST THE UPPER 40S WITH SOME LOW 50S.

.MONDAY AND TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW
MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS INTO THE EASTERN LAKES AS 500 FLOW
TURNS MORE SOUTHWEST. SURFACE FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE
PLAINS. APPEARS 850 JET DOES INCREASE MOISTURE INTO SRN WI. THE
GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS ON MONDAY WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF
SHOWS MORE OF A DELAY UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT. THE GFS MAINTAINS THE
LOWER LOOK OF THE SURFACE FRONT KEEPING PRECIP GOING INTO TUESDAY
MORNING WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS JUST SOME LIGHT LINGERING RAIN IN
THE FAR SOUTHEAST TUESDAY MORNING. SO STILL SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES TO WORK OUT SO WILL NOT DEVIATE MUCH FROM THE
SUPERBLEND POPS.

.WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
QUICK MOVING PATTERN CONTINUES AS STRONGER 500 FLOW PERSISTS AND
MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN RACING YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
ACROSS THE AREA THIS PERIOD. SURFACE LOW WELL NORTH AND MUCH OF
THE QPF IS ALSO NORTH. OUR NORTHERN CWA IS A CLOSE CALL SO HAVE
KEPT SOME SMALL POPS THERE BUT WENT DRY IN SOUTH PER COLLABORATION
WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.

.THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
COLD ADVECTION PATTERN LINGERS FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH NW
WINDS. HOWEVER SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN WITH TIME RESULTING IN
LIGHTER WINDS WITH TIME THOUGH A CHILLY DAY IS EXPECTED WITH 925
TEMPS JUST A SMIDGE ABOVE ZERO CELSIUS.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...COMING SOON.

&&

.MARINE...COMING SOON.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR WIZ051-052-059-060-065-066-070>072.

LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...WOOD
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...COLLAR





000
FXUS63 KMKX 310238
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
938 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.UPDATE...

NEW 00Z NAM HAS A BIT MORE PRECIPITATION OVER THE SOUTHEAST LATE
TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING. BRIEF ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW
AROUND 1/4 INCH WITH A FEW AREAS UP TO 1/2 INCH POSSIBLE ON
GRASSY AREAS. THE STRONG MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS WISCONSIN DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...REACHING WESTERN
LOWER MICHIGAN AND INDIANA BY NOON FRIDAY.


&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...

A STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS WISCONSIN TONIGHT. VFR
CONDITIONS BECOMING MVFR CIGS. SCATTERED SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS
THIS EVENING...WITH MORE SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT. LOOKS LIKE A GOOD CHANCE FOR A
SOME SNOW SHOWERS WITH THIS SECOND ROUND...WITH THE SNOW POSSIBLY
BRIEFLY MODERATE IN INTENSITY WITH IFR CONDITIONS. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED AT A SLUSHY 1/4 INCH OF ACCUMULATION MAINLY ON GRASSY
AREAS ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST.

SNOW SHOWERS WILL WIND DOWN IN THE MORNING...WITH CIGS LIKELY
RETURNING TO VFR BY MID-MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

IT WILL BECOME QUITE WINDY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY
BEHIND A DEPARTING STRONG COLD FRONT. NORTH WINDS WILL GUST TO 30 TO
40 KNOTS...THE HIGHEST GUSTS IN THE EAST.

&&

.MARINE...

GALE WARNING BEGINS AT 4 AM AND INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. A STRONG COLD
FRONT AND INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
WILL BRING NORTH GALES TO LAKE MICHIGAN FOR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE ALONG SHORE DIRECTION OF THE STRONG WINDS
WILL BUILD VERY HIGH WAVES THROUGHOUT THE NEARSHORE WATERS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014/

TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...CONFIDENCE - HIGH.

EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THIS EVENING INTO
EARLY TONIGHT AS A STRONG COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED PRIMARILY IN THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING AS A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE PUSHES THROUGH. IT LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH
COLD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE BY THEN FOR A CHANGEOVER TO
SNOW...POSSIBLY BRIEFLY MODERATE IN INTENSITY. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED AT A SLUSHY TENTH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION IN SOME SPOTS.

ATTENTION THEN WILL TURN TO THE STRONG WINDS BEHIND THE DEPARTING
FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. NORTH WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WILL GUST
TO 35 TO 45 MPH FROM LATE THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS FRIDAY. THE
STRONGEST GUSTS WILL BE IN THE EAST...WHERE A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED.

TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL ONLY GET UP TO AROUND 40...WITH WIND
CHILLS IN THE 20S THROUGH THE DAY...DROPPING INTO THE UPPER TEENS
AND LOW 20S FOR THE EVENING HOURS. IT WILL QUITE CHILLY FOR THOSE
THAT WILL BE VENTURING OUT FOR SOME CANDY TOMORROW.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - HIGH.

LINGERING MOISTURE BELOW 4K FEET AND LOW LEVEL WINDS ONLY SLOWLY
VEERING TO THE NORTHEAST WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR LIGHT
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH A FEW
SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES LASTING FROM MKE SOUTH INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
LAKE TEMP REMAINS AROUND 50 WHICH WILL CAUSE THE DELTA-T TO INCREASE
TO 15 TO 20 DEGREES FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE WINDS VEER.  FAVORABLE FETCH
BUT LOW EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL BALANCE EACH OTHER AND RESULT IN THE
CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT LOW LEVEL WINDS TO CONTINUE DIMINISHING THROUGH
SATURDAY AS COLUMN RH DRIES.  COLDEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON IS
EXPECTED AWAY FROM LAKE MI FRIDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EDGES
INTO WRN WI.  WITH 925H TEMPS FALLING TO AROUND -4C, SOME LOCATIONS
WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE TEENS BY MORNING.  CORE OF COLD AIR WILL
REMAIN OVER THE REGION THRU SATURDAY AS DAYTIME TEMPS STRUGGLE TO
RISE INTO THE MID 40S.  THE LINGERING RIDGE AXIS OVER THE EAST WL
ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL RAPIDLY AGAIN SAT EVENING BEFORE LEVELING OFF.
A FEW EASTERN LOCATIONS MAY FALL TO NEAR 20.

RETURN FLOW BEGINS ON SUNDAY BUT DEEPER MOISTURE PINCHED OFF BY
SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE COVERING THE SOUTH.  HENCE ONLY EXPECT SOME
INCREASE IN MID-HIGH CLOUDS AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM
TRENDING TOWARD LOW.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SLOWING DOWN EWD PROGRESSION OF AMPLIFYING
SHORT WAVE TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.  HOWEVER INCREASING SOUTHERLY
WINDS TO THE REAR OF SLOWLY RETREATING HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW
DEEPER COLUMN MOISTURE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD BEGINNING
SUNDAY...CONTINUING INTO MONDAY AS GULF OF MEXICO BEGINS TO BE
TAPED.  PWAT VALUES TO INCREASE TO OVER AN INCH ON MON.  NOT SEEING
MUCH ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY SWEEPS THROUGH
LATER MON SO WL CONTINUE T FREE.

COLDER AIR WILL SPREAD ACROSS SRN WI ON TUE BUT COLD AIR SURGE WILL
NOT BE NEARLY AS COLD AS WHAT IS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS.  85H TEMPS
WILL BE DROPPING TO SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW ZERO.  MORE ZONAL FLOW
SETTING UP ACROSS NORTHERN CONUS WILL RESULT IN TEMPS REMAINING
AROUND SEASONAL NORMAL FOR EARLY NOVEMBER.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE DIVERGES WRT FOLLOWING SHORT WAVE THAT MOVES
ACROSS CONUS/CAN BORDER AREA AROUND MID-WEEK.  LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF
THE ECMWF TRENDING TOWARD FLATTER...WEAKER SYSTEM WHILE GFS SHOWING
MORE AMPLITUDE.  WPC BLENDED OF GFS PARALLEL AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN
ALSO FAVORS FLATTER SOLUTION.  6 TO 10 DAY AND 8 TO 14 DAY 500H
OUTLOOKS SHOWING MORE ZONAL FLOW PERSISTING WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL HEIGHTS.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH MVFR
CIGS LIKELY MOVING IN THIS EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THIS EVENING...WITH MORE SHOWERS POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE EAST LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. LOOKS LIKE A
GOOD CHANCE FOR A SOME SNOW SHOWERS WITH THIS SECOND ROUND...WITH
THE SNOW POSSIBLY BRIEFLY MODERATE IN INTENSITY. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED AT A SLUSHY TENTH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION IN SOME SPOTS.

SHOWERS WILL WIND DOWN IN THE MORNING...WITH CIGS LIKELY RETURNING
TO VFR BY MID-MORNING.

IT WILL BECOME QUITE WINDY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY
BEHIND A DEPARTING STRONG COLD FRONT. NORTH WINDS WILL GUST TO 30 TO
40 KNOTS...THE HIGHEST GUSTS IN THE EAST.

MARINE...

KEPT THE GALE WARNING AS IS FOR FRIDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT AND
INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BRING
NORTHERLY GALES TO LAKE MICHIGAN FOR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE ALONG SHORE DIRECTION OF THE STRONG WINDS WILL
BUILD VERY HIGH WAVES THROUGHOUT THE NEARSHORE WATERS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 6 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR WIZ051-052-059-
     060-065-066-070>072.

LM...GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM FRIDAY TO 1 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR
     LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HENTZ
TONIGHT/FRIDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...DDV
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...DAVIS





000
FXUS63 KMKX 302038
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
340 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...CONFIDENCE - HIGH.

EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THIS EVENING INTO
EARLY TONIGHT AS A STRONG COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED PRIMARILY IN THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING AS A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE PUSHES THROUGH. IT LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH
COLD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE BY THEN FOR A CHANGEOVER TO
SNOW...POSSIBLY BRIEFLY MODERATE IN INTENSITY. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED AT A SLUSHY TENTH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION IN SOME SPOTS.

ATTENTION THEN WILL TURN TO THE STRONG WINDS BEHIND THE DEPARTING
FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. NORTH WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WILL GUST
TO 35 TO 45 MPH FROM LATE THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS FRIDAY. THE
STRONGEST GUSTS WILL BE IN THE EAST...WHERE A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED.

TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL ONLY GET UP TO AROUND 40...WITH WIND
CHILLS IN THE 20S THROUGH THE DAY...DROPPING INTO THE UPPER TEENS
AND LOW 20S FOR THE EVENING HOURS. IT WILL QUITE CHILLY FOR THOSE
THAT WILL BE VENTURING OUT FOR SOME CANDY TOMORROW.

.FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - HIGH.

LINGERING MOISTURE BELOW 4K FEET AND LOW LEVEL WINDS ONLY SLOWLY
VEERING TO THE NORTHEAST WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR LIGHT
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH A FEW
SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES LASTING FROM MKE SOUTH INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
LAKE TEMP REMAINS AROUND 50 WHICH WILL CAUSE THE DELTA-T TO INCREASE
TO 15 TO 20 DEGREES FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE WINDS VEER.  FAVORABLE FETCH
BUT LOW EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL BALANCE EACH OTHER AND RESULT IN THE
CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT LOW LEVEL WINDS TO CONTINUE DIMINISHING THROUGH
SATURDAY AS COLUMN RH DRIES.  COLDEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON IS
EXPECTED AWAY FROM LAKE MI FRIDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EDGES
INTO WRN WI.  WITH 925H TEMPS FALLING TO AROUND -4C, SOME LOCATIONS
WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE TEENS BY MORNING.  CORE OF COLD AIR WILL
REMAIN OVER THE REGION THRU SATURDAY AS DAYTIME TEMPS STRUGGLE TO
RISE INTO THE MID 40S.  THE LINGERING RIDGE AXIS OVER THE EAST WL
ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL RAPIDLY AGAIN SAT EVENING BEFORE LEVELING OFF.
A FEW EASTERN LOCATIONS MAY FALL TO NEAR 20.

RETURN FLOW BEGINS ON SUNDAY BUT DEEPER MOISTURE PINCHED OFF BY
SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE COVERING THE SOUTH.  HENCE ONLY EXPECT SOME
INCREASE IN MID-HIGH CLOUDS AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS.

.SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM
TRENDING TOWARD LOW.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SLOWING DOWN EWD PROGRESSION OF AMPLIFYING
SHORT WAVE TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.  HOWEVER INCREASING SOUTHERLY
WINDS TO THE REAR OF SLOWLY RETREATING HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW
DEEPER COLUMN MOISTURE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD BEGINNING
SUNDAY...CONTINUING INTO MONDAY AS GULF OF MEXICO BEGINS TO BE
TAPED.  PWAT VALUES TO INCREASE TO OVER AN INCH ON MON.  NOT SEEING
MUCH ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY SWEEPS THROUGH
LATER MON SO WL CONTINUE T FREE.

COLDER AIR WILL SPREAD ACROSS SRN WI ON TUE BUT COLD AIR SURGE WILL
NOT BE NEARLY AS COLD AS WHAT IS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS.  85H TEMPS
WILL BE DROPPING TO SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW ZERO.  MORE ZONAL FLOW
SETTING UP ACROSS NORTHERN CONUS WILL RESULT IN TEMPS REMAINING
AROUND SEASONAL NORMAL FOR EARLY NOVEMBER.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE DIVERGES WRT FOLLOWING SHORT WAVE THAT MOVES
ACROSS CONUS/CAN BORDER AREA AROUND MID-WEEK.  LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF
THE ECMWF TRENDING TOWARD FLATTER...WEAKER SYSTEM WHILE GFS SHOWING
MORE AMPLITUDE.  WPC BLENDED OF GFS PARALLEL AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN
ALSO FAVORS FLATTER SOLUTION.  6 TO 10 DAY AND 8 TO 14 DAY 500H
OUTLOOKS SHOWING MORE ZONAL FLOW PERSISTING WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL HEIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH MVFR
CIGS LIKELY MOVING IN THIS EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THIS EVENING...WITH MORE SHOWERS POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE EAST LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. LOOKS LIKE A
GOOD CHANCE FOR A SOME SNOW SHOWERS WITH THIS SECOND ROUND...WITH
THE SNOW POSSIBLY BRIEFLY MODERATE IN INTENSITY. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED AT A SLUSHY TENTH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION IN SOME SPOTS.

SHOWERS WILL WIND DOWN IN THE MORNING...WITH CIGS LIKELY RETURNING
TO VFR BY MID-MORNING.

IT WILL BECOME QUITE WINDY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY
BEHIND A DEPARTING STRONG COLD FRONT. NORTH WINDS WILL GUST TO 30 TO
40 KNOTS...THE HIGHEST GUSTS IN THE EAST.

&&

.MARINE...

KEPT THE GALE WARNING AS IS FOR FRIDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT AND
INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BRING
NORTHERLY GALES TO LAKE MICHIGAN FOR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE ALONG SHORE DIRECTION OF THE STRONG WINDS WILL
BUILD VERY HIGH WAVES THROUGHOUT THE NEARSHORE WATERS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WI...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 6 PM CDT FRIDAY FROM WIZ051-052-059-
060-065-066-070>-072.
LM...GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM FRIDAY TO 1 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY/AVIATION/MARINE...DDV
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MBK





000
FXUS63 KMKX 301542 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1042 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.UPDATE...

ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS FOR NORTH AND WEST OF MADISON
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. UPSTREAM SHOWERS REACHING THE GROUND IN SOME
PLACES AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT. WEAK FRONTOGENESIS WITH THIS
FRONT MOVES INTO THE WESTERN CWA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR
LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN WI AS THE
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH
MVFR CIGS LIKELY MOVING IN THIS EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE NIGHT. CIGS WILL LIKELY
RETURN TO VFR BY MID-MORNING FRIDAY.

IT WILL BECOME QUITE WINDY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY
BEHIND A DEPARTING STRONG COLD FRONT. NORTH WINDS WILL GUST TO 30
TO 40 KNOTS...THE HIGHEST GUSTS IN THE EAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014/

SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE MID MO RIVER VALLEY WILL TRACK MAINLY
SOUTH OF WI TODAY WITH ONLY AN INCREASE IN MIDDLE TO HIGH CLOUDS.
LGT SWLY WINDS AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION IS EXPECTED BUT THE CLOUDS
WILL KEEP TEMPS DOWN SOME. STILL EXPECT LOWER 50S FOR HIGHS.

FOR TNT...A 110 KT NLY JET WILL DIVE SWD OVER THE UPPER MS RIVER
VALLEY WITH AN ASSOCIATED DIGGING UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE SWD
ACROSS ERN WI LATE TNT INTO FRI AM. THE COLD FROPA WILL OCCUR
BEFOREHAND DURING THIS EVENING AS THE SFC LOW MOVES ACROSS THE NRN
GREAT LAKES. LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL
LIKELY GENERATE AT LEAST SCT SHOWERS. THEN MAINLY AFTER 09Z AN AREA
OF LGT RAIN AND SNOW IS POSSIBLE AND WILL MOVE SWD ACROSS ERN WI
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
WHETHER THE PCPN WILL OCCUR SINCE THE AREA IS ON THE WRN FRINGES OF
LIFT AND MODEL QPF. THE ARRIVAL OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL ALSO HELP
ENHANCE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT...THUS WIND GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH ARE
EXPECTED AROUND SUNRISE.

FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

THE HIGHEST WINDS WILL SLAM INTO SOUTHEAST WI RIGHT AROUND 12Z/ 7AM
FRIDAY MORNING. THIS IS WHEN THE COMPACT UPPER LOW DROPS OVER THE
REGION AND AN AREA OF 850-700MB FRONTOGENESIS AND STRONG UPWARD
MOTION SLIDE DOWN THE SHORELINE OF LAKE MICHIGAN. ANY SHOWERS WILL
BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW BETWEEN 7 AND 10 AM FRIDAY MORNING GIVEN THE
TEMPERATURE PROFILE COMPLETELY BELOW FREEZING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE SURFACE. ANY LIGHT ACCUMULATION WOULD BE ON GRASSY AREAS.

WINDS ALOFT WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST WHILE SURFACE WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY TURN FROM NNW TO NORTH FRIDAY MORNING. LOW LEVEL
MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH IN THE LAKESHORE
COUNTIES AND 35 MPH INLAND THROUGH MIDDAY. A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE
EAST HALF OF THE MKX FORECAST AREA WILL STILL NEED TO BE CONSIDERED.
THE CRITERIA IS SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 MPH OR GUSTS TO 45 MPH AND
HIGHER. AT THIS TIME... THE FORECAST JUST BARELY MEETS THIS CRITERIA
FOR A FEW LOCATIONS SO WILL HOLD OFF ON A HEADLINE SINCE IT/S
MARGINAL.

SYNOPTIC PRECIP WILL END BY 10 AM... BUT LAKE EFFECT RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE RIGHT ALONG THE LAKESHORE THROUGH SATURDAY
AS 1000-850MB WINDS TURN NORTHEAST.

I NUDGED THE HIGH TEMPS DOWN TO THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 FOR
FRIDAY. WIND CHILLS WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS IN THE MORNING AND
20S IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. EXPECT CLOUDS TO DECREASE
THROUGH THE DAY...BUT STRATOCU WITH THE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
SEEM PROBABLE. FRIDAY EVENING WILL BE DRY AND LESS WINDY BUT COLD...
WITH TEMPS QUICKLY FALLING INTO THE LOWER 30S.

LONG TERM...

SATURDAY WILL REMAIN COOL BUT WITH LIGHT WINDS AS THE SURFACE HIGH
AND MID LEVEL RIDGE MOVE OVERHEAD. IT WILL BEGIN TO WARM UP ON
SUNDAY WITH RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH.

THE ECWMF BRINGS PRECIP INTO SOUTHERN WI EARLIER THAN THE GFS GIVEN
DIFFERENT STRENGTHS OF AN UPPER LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE US/CANADIAN
BORDER MONDAY AND TUESDAY. KEPT THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS DURING THIS
PERIOD. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS TO SOUTHERN WI WED INTO THU.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS TODAY BUT AREAS OF MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP THIS
EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT AND SCT SHOWERS. AN
AREA OF LIGHT SNOW MAY THEN MOVE SOUTH ACROSS ERN WI AROUND
DAYBREAK ON FRI. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED WITH VSBYS OF 2-5SM WITHIN
ANY LIGHT SNOW.

MARINE...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM FRIDAY THROUGH 1 AM
SATURDAY. NORTHERLY GALES WILL DEVELOP DURING THIS PERIOD AS LOW
PRESSURE INTENSIFIES OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND IN THE WAKE OF
A STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED AFTER THE EXPIRATION OF THE GALE WARNING DUE TO LINGERING
HIGH WINDS AND WAVES.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM FRIDAY TO 1 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR
     LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SM/DDV
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...GEHRING
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MRC





000
FXUS63 KMKX 300851
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
351 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE MID MO RIVER VALLEY WILL TRACK MAINLY
SOUTH OF WI TODAY WITH ONLY AN INCREASE IN MIDDLE TO HIGH CLOUDS.
LGT SWLY WINDS AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION IS EXPECTED BUT THE CLOUDS
WILL KEEP TEMPS DOWN SOME. STILL EXPECT LOWER 50S FOR HIGHS.

FOR TNT...A 110 KT NLY JET WILL DIVE SWD OVER THE UPPER MS RIVER
VALLEY WITH AN ASSOCIATED DIGGING UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE SWD
ACROSS ERN WI LATE TNT INTO FRI AM. THE COLD FROPA WILL OCCUR
BEFOREHAND DURING THIS EVENING AS THE SFC LOW MOVES ACROSS THE NRN
GREAT LAKES. LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL
LIKELY GENERATE AT LEAST SCT SHOWERS. THEN MAINLY AFTER 09Z AN AREA
OF LGT RAIN AND SNOW IS POSSIBLE AND WILL MOVE SWD ACROSS ERN WI
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
WHETHER THE PCPN WILL OCCUR SINCE THE AREA IS ON THE WRN FRINGES OF
LIFT AND MODEL QPF. THE ARRIVAL OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL ALSO HELP
ENHANCE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT...THUS WIND GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH ARE
EXPECTED AROUND SUNRISE.

FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

THE HIGHEST WINDS WILL SLAM INTO SOUTHEAST WI RIGHT AROUND 12Z/ 7AM
FRIDAY MORNING. THIS IS WHEN THE COMPACT UPPER LOW DROPS OVER THE
REGION AND AN AREA OF 850-700MB FRONTOGENESIS AND STRONG UPWARD
MOTION SLIDE DOWN THE SHORELINE OF LAKE MICHIGAN. ANY SHOWERS WILL
BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW BETWEEN 7 AND 10 AM FRIDAY MORNING GIVEN THE
TEMPERATURE PROFILE COMPLETELY BELOW FREEZING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE SURFACE. ANY LIGHT ACCUMULATION WOULD BE ON GRASSY AREAS.

WINDS ALOFT WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST WHILE SURFACE WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY TURN FROM NNW TO NORTH FRIDAY MORNING. LOW LEVEL
MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH IN THE LAKESHORE
COUNTIES AND 35 MPH INLAND THROUGH MIDDAY. A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE
EAST HALF OF THE MKX FORECAST AREA WILL STILL NEED TO BE CONSIDERED.
THE CRITERIA IS SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 MPH OR GUSTS TO 45 MPH AND
HIGHER. AT THIS TIME... THE FORECAST JUST BARELY MEETS THIS CRITERIA
FOR A FEW LOCATIONS SO WILL HOLD OFF ON A HEADLINE SINCE IT/S
MARGINAL.

SYNOPTIC PRECIP WILL END BY 10 AM... BUT LAKE EFFECT RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE RIGHT ALONG THE LAKESHORE THROUGH SATURDAY
AS 1000-850MB WINDS TURN NORTHEAST.

I NUDGED THE HIGH TEMPS DOWN TO THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 FOR
FRIDAY. WIND CHILLS WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS IN THE MORNING AND
20S IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. EXPECT CLOUDS TO DECREASE
THROUGH THE DAY...BUT STRATOCU WITH THE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
SEEM PROBABLE. FRIDAY EVENING WILL BE DRY AND LESS WINDY BUT COLD...
WITH TEMPS QUICKLY FALLING INTO THE LOWER 30S.

.LONG TERM...

SATURDAY WILL REMAIN COOL BUT WITH LIGHT WINDS AS THE SURFACE HIGH
AND MID LEVEL RIDGE MOVE OVERHEAD. IT WILL BEGIN TO WARM UP ON
SUNDAY WITH RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH.

THE ECWMF BRINGS PRECIP INTO SOUTHERN WI EARLIER THAN THE GFS GIVEN
DIFFERENT STRENGTHS OF AN UPPER LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE US/CANADIAN
BORDER MONDAY AND TUESDAY. KEPT THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS DURING THIS
PERIOD. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS TO SOUTHERN WI WED INTO THU.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS TODAY BUT AREAS OF MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP THIS
EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT AND SCT SHOWERS. AN
AREA OF LIGHT SNOW MAY THEN MOVE SOUTH ACROSS ERN WI AROUND
DAYBREAK ON FRI. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED WITH VSBYS OF 2-5SM WITHIN
ANY LIGHT SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM FRIDAY THROUGH 1 AM
SATURDAY. NORTHERLY GALES WILL DEVELOP DURING THIS PERIOD AS LOW
PRESSURE INTENSIFIES OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND IN THE WAKE OF
A STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED AFTER THE EXPIRATION OF THE GALE WARNING DUE TO LINGERING
HIGH WINDS AND WAVES.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM FRIDAY TO 1 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR
     LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...GEHRING
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MRC





000
FXUS63 KMKX 300247
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
947 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.UPDATE...


&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...

STILL A FEW STRATOCUMULUS NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE SHOULD
CLEAR BY MIDNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.
A STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL DROP INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN
THURSDAY EVENING. EXPECTING INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS AHEAD OF
THE TROUGH THURSDAY. COULD GET NEAR MVFR ALONG WITH SHOWERS BY
EARLY EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...

UPGRADED THE GALE WATCH TO A GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM CDT FRIDAY
MORNING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT STRONG NORTH WINDS AND HIGH
WAVES AS LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
FRIDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 241 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014/

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

CLOUDS ARE FINALLY STARTING CLEAR UP ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST FORECAST
AREA. LATEST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
BEGIN MOVING IN FROM THE WEST BY MORNING...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH.
LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT WITH THE WAVE FOR A FEW
SHOWERS...SO KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING FOR TOMORROW. HIGH TEMPS
TOMORROW WILL BE A TAD WARMER THAN TODAY...BUT STILL A COUPLE
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

THE FIRST OF TWO COLD FRONTS WILL COME THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...
WHILE A SECONDARY...STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH
BETWEEN ABOUT 3 AM AND 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING. THE FIRST FRONT MAY
HAVE SOME LIGHT PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH IT AND MAINLY IN THE FORM
OF VERY LIGHT RAIN AS THE COLUMN WILL REMAIN TOO WARM FOR SNOW.

THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A VERY SHARP AND
VERY STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROF AND EMBEDDED COMPACT SHORT WAVE. THE
FORCING WILL BE STRONG WITH IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS
FRONT SHOULD BRING A DECENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE THERMAL
PROFILES SUPPORT A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW OR JUST LIGHT SNOW INLAND...BUT
GIVEN THE WARM LAKE TEMPS...THE PRECIP SHOULD STAY ALL LIQUID
CLOSE TO THE SHORE AND OVER THE WATER. THE SHORT WAVE...COLD FRONT
AND DEEPER FORCING PUSHES SOUTH VERY QUICKLY DURING THE MORNING.
BUT THE COLD ADVECTION WILL BE STRONG AND DELTA T/S INCREASE TO
ABOUT 20C DURING THE MORNING. SO...WE/LL TRANSITION TO A PURE LAKE
EFFECT POTENTIAL AFTER SUNRISE AND THIS WILL BE LIMITED TO AREAS
VERY CLOSE TO SHORE. AGAIN...THE WARM LAKE TEMPS WILL KEEP THIS
MAINLY A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW INLAND...TO ALL RAIN ONCE OVER THE
WATER. AT THIS POINT WE/RE NOT LOOKING AT ANY ACCUMULATIONS...AND
IF ANY DO OCCUR...IT WOULD MAINLY BE ON GRASSY AREAS.

THE OTHER PROBLEM WILL BE VERY STRONG WINDS FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY
EAST. RAPID SFC CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS DURING THIS TIME WITH A VERY
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT FORMING BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE EAST...AND
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE NAM AND
GFS HAVE BACKED OFF SLIGHTLY FROM THE OVERNIGHT RUNS WITH RESPECT
TO WIND INTENSITY. WE SHOULD SEE NORTH WINDS OF 20 TO 35 MPH WITH
SOME HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. LOOK FOR THE WINDS TO DIMINISH QUICKLY
BY FRIDAY EVENING.

WE WILL BE CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ON FRIDAY...BUT AT THIS
POINT...IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL STAY JUST BELOW IT.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

THAT COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.
LOOK FOR SUNSHINE...BUT TEMPS RUNNING WELL BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS
ONLY IN THE 40S BOTH DAYS. SATURDAY MORNING LOWS WILL BE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 20S AND WITH WINDS STILL SOMEWHAT ELEVATED...WE/LL
SEE WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

A LOW PRESSURE TROF APPROACHES EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LEADING WARM
ADVECTION AND EVENTUAL TROF PASSAGE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
DURING THIS PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN AT THIS POINT LOOKS
LIKE MONDAY NIGHT WITH TROF PASSAGE. IMPROVING CONDITIONS WILL
ARRIVE BY TUESDAY NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER RETURNING BY MID WEEK
NEXT WEEK.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

FINALLY SEEING CLOUDS CLEAR UP A BIT IN THE SOUTHWEST FORECAST AREA.
STILL EXPECTING SOME CLEARING THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT BETWEEN
SHORTWAVES...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS THURSDAY AS A WAVE DROPS THROUGH THE AREA. MODELS SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST MAINLY VFR CIGS TOMORROW...THOUGH COULD GET NEAR MVFR BY
LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING.

MARINE...

KEPT THE SMALL GALE WATCH AS IS FOR FRIDAY. MODELS ALL BACKED OF THE
STRENGTH OF THE WINDS SOME...SO WILL WAIT ANOTHER MODEL RUN OR TWO
BEFORE POSSIBLY ISSUING THE WARNING. THAT BEING SAID...UNLESS MODELS
BACK WAY OFF WINDS...THIS LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY SOLID GALE WARNING
EVENT. THE STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BUILD HIGH WAVES ALSO.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM FRIDAY TO 1 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR
     LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HENTZ
TONIGHT/THURSDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...DDV
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DAVIS





000
FXUS63 KMKX 291941
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
241 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

CLOUDS ARE FINALLY STARTING CLEAR UP ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST FORECAST
AREA. LATEST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
BEGIN MOVING IN FROM THE WEST BY MORNING...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH.
LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT WITH THE WAVE FOR A FEW
SHOWERS...SO KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING FOR TOMORROW. HIGH TEMPS
TOMORROW WILL BE A TAD WARMER THAN TODAY...BUT STILL A COUPLE
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

.THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

THE FIRST OF TWO COLD FRONTS WILL COME THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...
WHILE A SECONDARY...STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH
BETWEEN ABOUT 3 AM AND 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING. THE FIRST FRONT MAY
HAVE SOME LIGHT PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH IT AND MAINLY IN THE FORM
OF VERY LIGHT RAIN AS THE COLUMN WILL REMAIN TOO WARM FOR SNOW.

THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A VERY SHARP AND
VERY STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROF AND EMBEDDED COMPACT SHORT WAVE. THE
FORCING WILL BE STRONG WITH IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS
FRONT SHOULD BRING A DECENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE THERMAL
PROFILES SUPPORT A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW OR JUST LIGHT SNOW INLAND...BUT
GIVEN THE WARM LAKE TEMPS...THE PRECIP SHOULD STAY ALL LIQUID
CLOSE TO THE SHORE AND OVER THE WATER. THE SHORT WAVE...COLD FRONT
AND DEEPER FORCING PUSHES SOUTH VERY QUICKLY DURING THE MORNING.
BUT THE COLD ADVECTION WILL BE STRONG AND DELTA T/S INCREASE TO
ABOUT 20C DURING THE MORNING. SO...WE/LL TRANSITION TO A PURE LAKE
EFFECT POTENTIAL AFTER SUNRISE AND THIS WILL BE LIMITED TO AREAS
VERY CLOSE TO SHORE. AGAIN...THE WARM LAKE TEMPS WILL KEEP THIS
MAINLY A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW INLAND...TO ALL RAIN ONCE OVER THE
WATER. AT THIS POINT WE/RE NOT LOOKING AT ANY ACCUMULATIONS...AND
IF ANY DO OCCUR...IT WOULD MAINLY BE ON GRASSY AREAS.

THE OTHER PROBLEM WILL BE VERY STRONG WINDS FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY
EAST. RAPID SFC CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS DURING THIS TIME WITH A VERY
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT FORMING BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE EAST...AND
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE NAM AND
GFS HAVE BACKED OFF SLIGHTLY FROM THE OVERNIGHT RUNS WITH RESPECT
TO WIND INTENSITY. WE SHOULD SEE NORTH WINDS OF 20 TO 35 MPH WITH
SOME HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. LOOK FOR THE WINDS TO DIMINISH QUICKLY
BY FRIDAY EVENING.

WE WILL BE CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ON FRIDAY...BUT AT THIS
POINT...IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL STAY JUST BELOW IT.

.SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

THAT COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.
LOOK FOR SUNSHINE...BUT TEMPS RUNNING WELL BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS
ONLY IN THE 40S BOTH DAYS. SATURDAY MORNING LOWS WILL BE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 20S AND WITH WINDS STILL SOMEWHAT ELEVATED...WE/LL
SEE WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS.

.MONDAY AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

A LOW PRESSURE TROF APPROACHES EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LEADING WARM
ADVECTION AND EVENTUAL TROF PASSAGE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
DURING THIS PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN AT THIS POINT LOOKS
LIKE MONDAY NIGHT WITH TROF PASSAGE. IMPROVING CONDITIONS WILL
ARRIVE BY TUESDAY NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER RETURNING BY MID WEEK
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

FINALLY SEEING CLOUDS CLEAR UP A BIT IN THE SOUTHWEST FORECAST AREA.
STILL EXPECTING SOME CLEARING THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT BETWEEN
SHORTWAVES...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS THURSDAY AS A WAVE DROPS THROUGH THE AREA. MODELS SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST MAINLY VFR CIGS TOMORROW...THOUGH COULD GET NEAR MVFR BY
LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...

KEPT THE SMALL GALE WATCH AS IS FOR FRIDAY. MODELS ALL BACKED OF THE
STRENGTH OF THE WINDS SOME...SO WILL WAIT ANOTHER MODEL RUN OR TWO
BEFORE POSSIBLY ISSUING THE WARNING. THAT BEING SAID...UNLESS MODELS
BACK WAY OFF WINDS...THIS LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY SOLID GALE WARNING
EVENT. THE STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BUILD HIGH WAVES ALSO.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
     LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

TONIGHT/THURSDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...DDV
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DAVIS





000
FXUS63 KMKX 291532 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1032 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.UPDATE...

LOOKS LIKE CLOUDS WILL HANG AROUND MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY...WITH
SOME CLEARING POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT BETWEEN
SHORTWAVES. TEMPS ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S RIGHT NOW...SO STILL
EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S...WITH THE SUN POKING OUT AT
TIMES.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

CURRENTLY A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR CIGS OUT THERE RIGHT NOW. SHOULD
SEE MAINLY VFR BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS DAYTIME
MIXING RESULTS IN HIGHER CLOUD BASES. EXPECTING SOME CLEARING THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT BETWEEN SHORTWAVES...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THURSDAY AS A WAVE DROPS THROUGH
THE AREA. MODELS SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MAINLY VFR CIGS
TOMORROW...THOUGH COULD GET NEAR MVFR BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014/

SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL TAKE HOLD AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH THIS AM. FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE WILL OCCUR
TO SCATTER OUT THE CLOUDS BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS WILL
REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE
HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE REGION TNT WITH MO CLEAR TO PTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND COOL TEMPS.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

A 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST
MIDDAY THURSDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISE TO AROUND 0.65 BY
THE AFTERNOON WITH WEAK 850-700MB WARM AIR ADVECTION. ALL OF THESE
FACTORS TOGETHER ARE SUFFICIENT FOR THE CHANCE OF SHOWER MENTION
WITH LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS.

MEANWHILE... AN INTENSE 500MB SHORTWAVE WITH POLAR ORIGINS WILL BE
BARRELING SOUTH TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY. THIS UPPER LOW
WILL CAUSE THE SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN TO DEEPEN
THURSDAY NIGHT AS IT DROPS INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN. LOOK FOR WINDS
TO BECOME NORTHWESTERLY AND GUSTY OVER SOUTHERN WI AFTER MIDNIGHT
THU NIGHT WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE 850MB COLD FRONT. THE SURFACE
LOW WILL UNDERGO RAPID CYCLOGENESIS OVER LOWER MICHIGAN BETWEEN 06Z
AND 12Z FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.

VERY STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL WRAP INTO EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WI FRIDAY
MORNING BETWEEN 7 AND 10 AM. THERE WILL BE AN IMPRESSIVE SURFACE
PRESSURE RISE OF 11 TO 12 MB BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND 00Z SAT OVER
SOUTHEAST WI. THIS POTENT SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE 40 TO
50 MPH WIND GUSTS OVER EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WI FRIDAY MORNING.
A WIND ADVISORY WILL NEED TO BE CONSIDERED FOR AT LEAST THE EAST
HALF OF THE MKX FORECAST AREA.

BESIDE THE WIND... THERE WILL ALSO BE VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL UPWARD
MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG CYCLOGENESIS OVER SOUTHERN WI
FRIDAY MORNING AS THE LOW PIVOTS OVER THE REGION. WHILE THE UPPER
LEVELS WILL BE DRYING OUT... THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND FORCING TO PRODUCE SHOWERS. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN
MODELS ARE QUITE DRY AND DO NOT SEEM TO BE HANDLING THIS SITUATION
VERY WELL. THE NAM AND GFS KEEP COMING IN WITH INCREASING QPF EACH
RUN. EXPECT THE FCST POPS TO BE RAISED.

850MB TEMPS WILL BE PLUMMETING TO AROUND -9C AND 925MB TEMPS TO
-3C. SURFACE TEMPS WILL DROP TO THE LOWER 30S FRIDAY MORNING. ALL OF
THIS MEANS THAT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THIS FRONT FRIDAY
MORNING. AT THIS TIME... IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE MUCH MEASURABLE QPF
WILL FALL OUT OF THIS SYSTEM THUS VERY LITTLE SNOW ACCUMULATION. IN
ADDITION... THE GROUND IS STILL WARM WHICH WOULD NOT ALLOW MUCH
ACCUMULATION. THAT SAID... MODEL RUNS KEEP COMING IN HIGHER WITH QPF
AMOUNTS SO THAT MAY CHANGE.

HIGHS AROUND 40 ARE OPTIMISTIC FOR FRIDAY. WIND CHILLS WILL BE IN
THE 20S INLAND FROM THE LAKE. EXPECT CLOUDS TO DECREASE THROUGH THE
DAY...BUT STRATOCU WITH THE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SEEMS
PROBABLE. FRIDAY EVENING WILL BE DRY AND LESS WINDY BUT COLD... WITH
TEMPS IN THE LOWER 30S AND WIND CHILLS IN THE 20S.

LONG TERM...

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

SATURDAY WILL REMAIN COOL BUT WITH LIGHT WINDS AS THE SURFACE HIGH
AND MID LEVEL RIDGE MOVE OVERHEAD. IT WILL BEGIN TO WARM UP ON
SUNDAY WITH RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH.

THE ECWMF BRINGS PRECIP INTO SOUTHERN WI EARLIER THAN THE GFS GIVEN
DIFFERENT STRENGTHS OF AN UPPER LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE US/CANADIAN
BORDER MONDAY AND TUESDAY. KEPT THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS DURING THIS
PERIOD.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES OF STRATOCUMULUS AT 2500-3500 FEET WILL
PREVAIL INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT DUE TO
LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS TO THEN PREVAIL FOR LATE
AFTERNOON AND TNT.

MARINE...THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 15Z THIS MORNING
AS WIND GUSTS FALL BELOW THE 22 KT THRESHHOLD. A GALE WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FOR FRI AND FRI NT FOR NLY GALES BEGINNING AROUND 12Z FRI
AFTER THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. LARGE WAVE HEIGHTS OF 7 TO
11 FEET WILL DEVELOP.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
     LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DDV
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...GEHRING
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MRC





000
FXUS63 KMKX 290900
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
400 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL TAKE HOLD AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH THIS AM. FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE WILL OCCUR
TO SCATTER OUT THE CLOUDS BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS WILL
REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE
HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE REGION TNT WITH MO CLEAR TO PTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND COOL TEMPS.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

A 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST
MIDDAY THURSDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISE TO AROUND 0.65 BY
THE AFTERNOON WITH WEAK 850-700MB WARM AIR ADVECTION. ALL OF THESE
FACTORS TOGETHER ARE SUFFICIENT FOR THE CHANCE OF SHOWER MENTION
WITH LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS.

MEANWHILE... AN INTENSE 500MB SHORTWAVE WITH POLAR ORIGINS WILL BE
BARRELING SOUTH TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY. THIS UPPER LOW
WILL CAUSE THE SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN TO DEEPEN
THURSDAY NIGHT AS IT DROPS INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN. LOOK FOR WINDS
TO BECOME NORTHWESTERLY AND GUSTY OVER SOUTHERN WI AFTER MIDNIGHT
THU NIGHT WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE 850MB COLD FRONT. THE SURFACE
LOW WILL UNDERGO RAPID CYCLOGENESIS OVER LOWER MICHIGAN BETWEEN 06Z
AND 12Z FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.

VERY STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL WRAP INTO EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WI FRIDAY
MORNING BETWEEN 7 AND 10 AM. THERE WILL BE AN IMPRESSIVE SURFACE
PRESSURE RISE OF 11 TO 12 MB BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND 00Z SAT OVER
SOUTHEAST WI. THIS POTENT SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE 40 TO
50 MPH WIND GUSTS OVER EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WI FRIDAY MORNING.
A WIND ADVISORY WILL NEED TO BE CONSIDERED FOR AT LEAST THE EAST
HALF OF THE MKX FORECAST AREA.

BESIDE THE WIND... THERE WILL ALSO BE VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL UPWARD
MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG CYCLOGENESIS OVER SOUTHERN WI
FRIDAY MORNING AS THE LOW PIVOTS OVER THE REGION. WHILE THE UPPER
LEVELS WILL BE DRYING OUT... THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND FORCING TO PRODUCE SHOWERS. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN
MODELS ARE QUITE DRY AND DO NOT SEEM TO BE HANDLING THIS SITUATION
VERY WELL. THE NAM AND GFS KEEP COMING IN WITH INCREASING QPF EACH
RUN. EXPECT THE FCST POPS TO BE RAISED.

850MB TEMPS WILL BE PLUMMETING TO AROUND -9C AND 925MB TEMPS TO
-3C. SURFACE TEMPS WILL DROP TO THE LOWER 30S FRIDAY MORNING. ALL OF
THIS MEANS THAT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THIS FRONT FRIDAY
MORNING. AT THIS TIME... IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE MUCH MEASURABLE QPF
WILL FALL OUT OF THIS SYSTEM THUS VERY LITTLE SNOW ACCUMULATION. IN
ADDITION... THE GROUND IS STILL WARM WHICH WOULD NOT ALLOW MUCH
ACCUMULATION. THAT SAID... MODEL RUNS KEEP COMING IN HIGHER WITH QPF
AMOUNTS SO THAT MAY CHANGE.

HIGHS AROUND 40 ARE OPTIMISTIC FOR FRIDAY. WIND CHILLS WILL BE IN
THE 20S INLAND FROM THE LAKE. EXPECT CLOUDS TO DECREASE THROUGH THE
DAY...BUT STRATOCU WITH THE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SEEMS
PROBABLE. FRIDAY EVENING WILL BE DRY AND LESS WINDY BUT COLD... WITH
TEMPS IN THE LOWER 30S AND WIND CHILLS IN THE 20S.

.LONG TERM...

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

SATURDAY WILL REMAIN COOL BUT WITH LIGHT WINDS AS THE SURFACE HIGH
AND MID LEVEL RIDGE MOVE OVERHEAD. IT WILL BEGIN TO WARM UP ON
SUNDAY WITH RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH.

THE ECWMF BRINGS PRECIP INTO SOUTHERN WI EARLIER THAN THE GFS GIVEN
DIFFERENT STRENGTHS OF AN UPPER LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE US/CANADIAN
BORDER MONDAY AND TUESDAY. KEPT THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS DURING THIS
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES OF STRATOCUMULUS AT 2500-3500 FEET WILL
PREVAIL INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT DUE TO
LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS TO THEN PREVAIL FOR LATE
AFTERNOON AND TNT.

&&

.MARINE...THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 15Z THIS MORNING
AS WIND GUSTS FALL BELOW THE 22 KT THRESHHOLD. A GALE WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FOR FRI AND FRI NT FOR NLY GALES BEGINNING AROUND 12Z FRI
AFTER THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. LARGE WAVE HEIGHTS OF 7 TO
11 FEET WILL DEVELOP.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
     LMZ643>646.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...GEHRING
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MRC





000
FXUS63 KMKX 290240
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
940 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.UPDATE...


&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...

BASED ON LATEST SOUNDINGS AND UPSTREAM OBS...CIGS SHOULD BE MAINLY
VFR THROUGH WEDNESDAY. COULD SEE SOME MVFR CIGS TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH. OTHERWISE...IT LOOKS
FAIRLY QUIET THROUGH TOMORROW AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS
GRADUALLY MOVES INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING.

.MARINE...

KEPT THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGHEST
WAVES WILL BE TOWARD OPEN WATERS UNDER THE BRISK OFFSHORE WINDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014/

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

MIGHT SEE A BRIEF SHOWER OR TWO IN THE NORTHWEST FORECAST AREA INTO
EARLY EVENING...BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. MAIN FORECAST CONCERN THROUGH TOMORROW IS CLOUD COVER.
MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN CAPTURING THE CURRENT CLOUD DECK VERY WELL...SO
WENT HIGHER THAN MOST MODELS WITH SKY COVER FOR TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.

TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY...WITH WINDS STILL A BIT
BREEZY...SO LOOKS LIKE A CHILLY DAY.

SHORT TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

DRY WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGING AND RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
PASSING THROUGH OVERNIGHT. HIGH TO MID CLOUDS SPREADING IN FROM WEST
TO EAST WITH APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL OFFSET LIGHT WINDS
TO LIMIT COOLING...HOLDING LOWS IN THE MID 30S.

THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

MAIN ENERGY WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH...AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW...TRACK TO SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH OF FORECAST AREA. MODELS DEVELOP
BAND OF PCPN ACROSS FORECAST AREA ALONG 850 MB AND 700 MB TROUGH
AXES/BAROCLINIC ZONES...WITH SOME FORCING CONTRIBUTION FROM
DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION. CONSENSUS BLEND BRINGS CHANCE POPS
TO PORTIONS OF WESTERN CWA WITH SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE...BUT WILL
LIMIT QPF WITH DRY LAYER BELOW 750 MB NEEDING TO SATURATE BEFORE
PCPN CAN REACH THE SURFACE. HIGHS AROUND 50 PER FORECAST 925 MB
TEMPS.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

STRONGER WAVE DROPS ACROSS NE WISCONSIN THURSDAY NIGHT...HELPING TO
DIG A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES FRIDAY...THAT
EVENTUALLY COVERS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE U.S. BY SATURDAY MORNING.

COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND RESULTING SURFACE TO 850 MB CYCLOGENESIS
OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES PULLS COLD POOL DOWN ACROSS STATE
FRIDAY...WITH -9C TO -10C 850 MB TEMPS BY AFTERNOON IN
NORTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF LARGE POLAR HIGH BUILDING TOWARD STATE.

GFS BRINGS LIGHT PCPN ACROSS THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ALONG SURFACE COLD FRONT BUT KEEP HEAVIEST
PCPN TO THE NE OF THE CWA CLOSER TO DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW...PUSHING
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF FRIDAY MORNING AROUND DEEPER SURFACE LOW.
WITH A WEAKER LOW...GEM AND ECMWF LIMIT PCPN TO THE FAR EASTERN
CWA...MAINLY DUE TO LAKE-EFFECT/ENHANCED SHOWERS. DENDRITE GROWTH
ZONE BECOMES SATURATED FOR A TIME FRIDAY MORNING...SO SOME SNOW
MIXING WITH THE RAIN.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE
MEDIUM.

GFS 1000-900 MB WINDS TURN NE FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LIGHT QPF BRUSHING
THE NEAR-LAKE LAND AREAS FROM MILWAUKEE SOUTH AS FAR INLAND AS UNION
GROVE AND PADDOCK LAKE...WHILE ECMWF ONLY CLIPS WIND LAKE WITH MORE
OF A DUE NORTH FETCH. GOING WITH BLEND AND COLLABORATION...WILL
LIMIT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO A NARROW BAND ALONG THE SHORE FROM WIND
POINT SOUTH.

OTHERWISE POLAR HIGH WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH MOST OF THE
WEEKEND...WITH LOWS IN THE 20S FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S SATURDAY. DEVELOPING
SOUTHERLY FLOW ON BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH WILL BRING HIGHS INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 40S SUNDAY...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS.

BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS COMES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH
SLOW MOVING SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM A SURFACE LOW
LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM NORTH DAKOTA ACROSS ONTARIO. BOTH GFS AND
ECMWF TAKE PCPN OUT OF CWA BY TUE MORNING...WITH THE GFS KEEPING
PCPN AS CLOSE AS NE IL/NRN IN ALONG LINGERING BAROCLINIC ZONE. WILL
KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE SE TUESDAY...BUT WILL NEED TO BE LOWERED
IF LATER RUNS REMAIN DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND SEASONAL
NORMALS.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

BASED ON LATEST SOUNDINGS AND UPSTREAM OBS...CIGS SHOULD BE MAINLY
VFR THROUGH WEDNESDAY. COULD SEE SOME MVFR CIGS TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH. OTHERWISE...IT LOOKS
FAIRLY QUIET THROUGH TOMORROW AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
REGION.

MARINE...

KEPT THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGHEST
WAVES WILL BE TOWARD OPEN WATERS UNDER THE OFFSHORE WINDS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HENTZ
TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...DDV
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...REM





000
FXUS63 KMKX 282035
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
335 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

MIGHT SEE A BRIEF SHOWER OR TWO IN THE NORTHWEST FORECAST AREA INTO
EARLY EVENING...BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. MAIN FORECAST CONCERN THROUGH TOMORROW IS CLOUD COVER.
MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN CAPTURING THE CURRENT CLOUD DECK VERY WELL...SO
WENT HIGHER THAN MOST MODELS WITH SKY COVER FOR TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.

TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY...WITH WINDS STILL A BIT
BREEZY...SO LOOKS LIKE A CHILLY DAY.

.SHORT TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

DRY WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGING AND RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
PASSING THROUGH OVERNIGHT. HIGH TO MID CLOUDS SPREADING IN FROM WEST
TO EAST WITH APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL OFFSET LIGHT WINDS
TO LIMIT COOLING...HOLDING LOWS IN THE MID 30S.

THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

MAIN ENERGY WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH...AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW...TRACK TO SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH OF FORECAST AREA. MODELS DEVELOP
BAND OF PCPN ACROSS FORECAST AREA ALONG 850 MB AND 700 MB TROUGH
AXES/BAROCLINIC ZONES...WITH SOME FORCING CONTRIBUTION FROM
DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION. CONSENSUS BLEND BRINGS CHANCE POPS
TO PORTIONS OF WESTERN CWA WITH SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE...BUT WILL
LIMIT QPF WITH DRY LAYER BELOW 750 MB NEEDING TO SATURATE BEFORE
PCPN CAN REACH THE SURFACE. HIGHS AROUND 50 PER FORECAST 925 MB
TEMPS.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

STRONGER WAVE DROPS ACROSS NE WISCONSIN THURSDAY NIGHT...HELPING TO
DIG A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES FRIDAY...THAT
EVENTUALLY COVERS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE U.S. BY SATURDAY MORNING.

COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND RESULTING SURFACE TO 850 MB CYCLOGENESIS
OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES PULLS COLD POOL DOWN ACROSS STATE
FRIDAY...WITH -9C TO -10C 850 MB TEMPS BY AFTERNOON IN
NORTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF LARGE POLAR HIGH BUILDING TOWARD STATE.

GFS BRINGS LIGHT PCPN ACROSS THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ALONG SURFACE COLD FRONT BUT KEEP HEAVIEST
PCPN TO THE NE OF THE CWA CLOSER TO DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW...PUSHING
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF FRIDAY MORNING AROUND DEEPER SURFACE LOW.
WITH A WEAKER LOW...GEM AND ECMWF LIMIT PCPN TO THE FAR EASTERN
CWA...MAINLY DUE TO LAKE-EFFECT/ENHANCED SHOWERS. DENDRITE GROWTH
ZONE BECOMES SATURATED FOR A TIME FRIDAY MORNING...SO SOME SNOW
MIXING WITH THE RAIN.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE
MEDIUM.

GFS 1000-900 MB WINDS TURN NE FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LIGHT QPF BRUSHING
THE NEAR-LAKE LAND AREAS FROM MILWAUKEE SOUTH AS FAR INLAND AS UNION
GROVE AND PADDOCK LAKE...WHILE ECMWF ONLY CLIPS WIND LAKE WITH MORE
OF A DUE NORTH FETCH. GOING WITH BLEND AND COLLABORATION...WILL
LIMIT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO A NARROW BAND ALONG THE SHORE FROM WIND
POINT SOUTH.

OTHERWISE POLAR HIGH WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH MOST OF THE
WEEKEND...WITH LOWS IN THE 20S FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S SATURDAY. DEVELOPING
SOUTHERLY FLOW ON BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH WILL BRING HIGHS INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 40S SUNDAY...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS.

BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS COMES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH
SLOW MOVING SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM A SURFACE LOW
LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM NORTH DAKOTA ACROSS ONTARIO. BOTH GFS AND
ECMWF TAKE PCPN OUT OF CWA BY TUE MORNING...WITH THE GFS KEEPING
PCPN AS CLOSE AS NE IL/NRN IN ALONG LINGERING BAROCLINIC ZONE. WILL
KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE SE TUESDAY...BUT WILL NEED TO BE LOWERED
IF LATER RUNS REMAIN DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND SEASONAL
NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

BASED ON LATEST SOUNDINGS AND UPSTREAM OBS...CIGS SHOULD BE MAINLY
VFR THROUGH WEDNESDAY. COULD SEE SOME MVFR CIGS TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH. OTHERWISE...IT LOOKS
FAIRLY QUIET THROUGH TOMORROW AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
REGION.

&&

.MARINE...

KEPT THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGHEST
WAVES WILL BE TOWARD OPEN WATERS UNDER THE OFFSHORE WINDS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...DDV
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...REM





000
FXUS63 KMKX 281533 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1033 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.UPDATE...

NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. HIGHS ON TRACK FOR MID
50S. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AND
WILL ONLY WEAKEN SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS
EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE CWA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST.
THE FAR EAST MAY ONLY SEE SCATTERED CLOUDS.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

BASED ON LATEST SOUNDINGS AND UPSTREAM OBS...CIGS SHOULD BE MAINLY
VFR TODAY AS THEY MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. COULD SEE SOME MVFR CIGS
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH.
OTHERWISE...IT LOOKS FAIRLY QUIET THROUGH TOMORROW AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014/

SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

STRONG COLD ADVECTION THIS MORNING WILL WEAKEN BY AFTERNOON BUT THE
BRISK WLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES AS IT
MOVES INTO CANADA. SCT-BKN STRATOCUMULUS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TNT AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES FROM NRN MN TO
LAKE SUPERIOR LATER TODAY AND NELY INTO CANADA TNT. FCST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THE STRATOCUMULUS FIELD WILL BECOME MORE BROKEN OVER THE NRN
AND WRN CWA THIS AFTERNOON WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN SE WI. AS THE
UPPER LOW MOVES AWAY OVER CANADA...ITS TRAILING UPPER TROUGH AXIS
WILL SHIFT EWD THROUGH SRN WI EARLY WED AM. A WEAK SECONDARY COLD
FRONT WITH A SHIFT TO NWLY WINDS WILL ALSO OCCUR BUT MODEL QPF AND
FCST SOUNDINGS YIELD NO PCPN. MOST MODELS AND MOS GUIDANCES YIELDS
HIGHS IN THE 50S TODAY AND MID TO UPPER 30S TNT...WHICH LOOKS GOOD.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THERE SHOULD STILL BE QUITE A BIT OF
CLOUD COVER DUE TO STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT. WINDS WILL BEGIN BREEZY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST BUT DECREASE IN
THE AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS INTO THE MIDWEST.

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL SET UP ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF THE COUNTRY
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. NORTHWEST FLOW WITH SHORTWAVES DROPPING
THROUGH AND 850MB WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO SOME WEAK LIFT
OVER SOUTHERN WI. THIS LIFT AND MEDIOCRE MOISTURE COULD ALLOW FOR
SOME ELEVATED SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES... SO ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE MAINLY
WEST OF MADISON.

LONG TERM...

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT THE TIMING OF A VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE DROPPING DOWN THROUGH THE MN ARROWHEAD AND NORTHERN WI THU
NIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN WI
LATE THU NIGHT. 850MB TEMPS DROP BELOW FREEZING IN THE WAKE OF THIS
FRONT. RAIN MIXED WITH SOME SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE JUST ALONG THE
FRONT OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL NOT BE ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION WITH THIS
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

EXPECT BLUSTERY NORTH WINDS ON FRIDAY DUE TO A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER SOUTHEAST WI. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. MODELS ARE SHOWING
VERY DRY AIR OVER THE AREA FRIDAY... THUS MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IN THE
FORECAST. DESPITE THAT... 925MB TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -3C YIELDING
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 40S FRIDAY AND EVEN SATURDAY. NIGHTTIME LOWS
WILL BE DOWN IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S TUE NIGHT AND AROUND 30 THE
NEXT NIGHT.

SUNDAY AND BEYOND... FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW.

MODELS SHIFT THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS AND EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK... BUT AT DIFFERENT SPEEDS.
GENERALLY... THE FORECAST WILL WARM DURING THIS PERIOD BUT PRECIP
CHANCES FOR SOUTHERN WI ARE STILL UNCERTAIN.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...BRISK WLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND WEAKEN
SOME FOR TNT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL BUT STRATOCUMULUS
SCT-BKN050 WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH TNT.

MARINE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH WED MORNING.
INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM NORTHERN LAKE MI NEWD INTO
CANADA TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN BRISK
WLY WINDS WHICH WILL VEER NWLY FOR WED AM. THE WINDS WILL THEN
SUBSIDE BY LATE WED AM AND AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SM/DDV
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...GEHRING
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MRC





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