000
FXUS63 KMKX 231557
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1057 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...MVFR CLOUD DECK GRADUALLY ERODING FROM THE
NORTH...BECOMING SCATTERED ACRS SC WI. SE WI WILL HAVE THE CLOUDS
LINGER QUITE A BIT LONGER INTO THE AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR SHOWING
UPPER CYCLONIC FLOW LINGERING TODAY. FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE CWA RESULTING IN GUSTY NORTH WINDS...HIGHEST
WINDS AT EASTERN TAF SITES. SURFACE HIGH WILL SETTLE ACROSS
TONIGHT EASING THE WINDS AND CLEARING THE SKIES OFF. THE HIGH WILL
DOMINATE ON FRIDAY WITH A MUCH LIGHTER WIND REGIME AND PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE.
PC
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 432 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/
TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM TO HIGH.
UPPER LOW AND RAIN SHOWERS TO EXIT SRN WI FROM NW TO SE
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING WITH COLD AND DRY AIR ADVECTION TO FOLLOW.
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT INTO MI THIS AFTERNOON AND DIG INTO
THE ERN USA FOR TNT AND FRI. SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED BY MID MORNING
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WI AND EARLY AFTERNOON OVER FAR SE WI. FCST
SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD MIXING WELL INLAND FROM THE LAKE GIVEN THE
DRIER AIRMASS AND FULL SUNSHINE. THUS 925 MB TEMPS AROUND 8C AND
850 MB TEMPS AROUND 2C YIELDS HIGHS AROUND 60F OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
WI. AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S
NEAR THE LAKE.
POLAR HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL THEN TRAVERSE TO WRN WI
BY 12Z SAT. MOS GUIDANCE AND 2 METER TEMPS SUGGEST LOW TEMPS WILL
BE MID TO UPPER 30S WITH ONLY PATCHY FROST EXPECTED. NO FROST
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY WILL BRING QUIET
WEATHER...WITH A DRY AIRMASS PER AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM
NAM/GFS. COOL TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN WITH ONSHORE
WINDS...WITH MILDER VALUES INLAND.
FORECAST GETS MORE TRICKY FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT...AS MODELS ARE IN SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH THE PLACEMENT OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION. THE NAM CONTINUES TO BRING
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE
AREA LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...LINGERING INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO FOCUSED 850MB WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
FRONTOGENESIS RESPONSE OVER THIS AREA LATER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT...AS WELL AS THE 850MB LOW LEVEL JET POINTING INTO THE AREA.
GFS SHOWS THESE FEATURES AS WELL. 500MB RIDGE REMAINS JUST WEST OF
THE AREA DURING THIS TIME.
AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM SHOW SATURATION IN THE
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES LATER FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE LOW TO MID LEVELS
REMAINING MOIST SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. GFS NOT NEARLY AS
SATURATED OVER THE AREA DURING THIS TIME. NOT MUCH ELEVATED
INSTABILITY IS SEEN...SO THUNDER RISK SEEMS TO BE ON THE LOW SIDE.
THE GFS/CANADIAN/ECMWF SHOW LIGHTER QPF IN THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES
SATURDAY MORNING. KEPT LOWER END POPS IN THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE
AREA FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON
THE COOL SIDE WITH ONSHORE FLOW...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LAKE.
MORE DISAGREEMENT BY SATURDAY NIGHT...AS THE NAM/GFS/CANADIAN
CONTINUE TO BRING QPF INTO THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF COUNTIES...WITH
THE ECMWF DRY. CONTINUED LOW POPS FOR THE SOUTHWEST 2/3 OF THE
AREA FOR NOW. STRENGTH OF HIGH AND DRY EASTERLY FLOW WILL
DETERMINE HOW FAR EAST THE QPF COMES INTO THE AREA.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
GFS/ECMWF CONTINUES TO SHOW DIFFERENCES IN THIS PERIOD. THE GFS
CONTINUES TO BRING ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...AS LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION ZONE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE AREA
DRY DURING THIS TIME...AS THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH TO THE EAST
HOLDS BACK ANY PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTHWEST. ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD
KEEP COOL TEMPERATURES GOING...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LAKE.
BOTH MODELS DO SHOW A GENERAL WARMING TREND BY WEDNESDAY...AS WARM
FRONT PUSHES NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION...AND 500MB FLOW
GRADUALLY BECOMES WEST TO SOUTHWEST. GFS CONTINUES TO BE A BIT
MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS NEAR AND NORTH OF THE
FRONT THAN THE ECMWF. FOR NOW...WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE CONSENSUS
POPS AND TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND CIGS FROM 1-2.5 KFT
WITH AREAS OF MVFR VSBYS WILL END FROM NW TO SE ACROSS SRN WI THIS
MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KMSN AROUND 15Z AND AROUND
17-18Z AT THE SE WI TAF SITES. BRISK AND GUSTY NLY WINDS WILL
PREVAIL THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WITH CLEAR SKIES AND MUCH LIGHTER
WINDS TNT.
MARINE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT TODAY AND TONIGHT
FOR BRISK AND GUSTY NLY WINDS AND VERY HIGH WAVES OF 6 TO 10 FEET.
WIND GUSTS COULD BRIEFLY REACH GALE FORCE THIS AM. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SETTLE OVER WI AND LAKE MI ON FRIDAY WITH MUCH LIGHTER WINDS
AND SMALLER WAVE HEIGHTS.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR LMZ644>646.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR LMZ643.
&&
$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...GEHRING
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WOOD
000
FXUS63 KMKX 230933
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
432 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
INCLUDED MARINE SECTION
.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM TO HIGH.
UPPER LOW AND RAIN SHOWERS TO EXIT SRN WI FROM NW TO SE
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING WITH COLD AND DRY AIR ADVECTION TO FOLLOW.
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT INTO MI THIS AFTERNOON AND DIG INTO
THE ERN USA FOR TNT AND FRI. SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED BY MID MORNING
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WI AND EARLY AFTERNOON OVER FAR SE WI. FCST
SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD MIXING WELL INLAND FROM THE LAKE GIVEN THE
DRIER AIRMASS AND FULL SUNSHINE. THUS 925 MB TEMPS AROUND 8C AND
850 MB TEMPS AROUND 2C YIELDS HIGHS AROUND 60F OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
WI. AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S
NEAR THE LAKE.
POLAR HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL THEN TRAVERSE TO WRN WI
BY 12Z SAT. MOS GUIDANCE AND 2 METER TEMPS SUGGEST LOW TEMPS WILL
BE MID TO UPPER 30S WITH ONLY PATCHY FROST EXPECTED. NO FROST
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.
.FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY WILL BRING QUIET
WEATHER...WITH A DRY AIRMASS PER AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM
NAM/GFS. COOL TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN WITH ONSHORE
WINDS...WITH MILDER VALUES INLAND.
FORECAST GETS MORE TRICKY FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT...AS MODELS ARE IN SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH THE PLACEMENT OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION. THE NAM CONTINUES TO BRING
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE
AREA LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...LINGERING INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO FOCUSED 850MB WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
FRONTOGENESIS RESPONSE OVER THIS AREA LATER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT...AS WELL AS THE 850MB LOW LEVEL JET POINTING INTO THE AREA.
GFS SHOWS THESE FEATURES AS WELL. 500MB RIDGE REMAINS JUST WEST OF
THE AREA DURING THIS TIME.
AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM SHOW SATURATION IN THE
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES LATER FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE LOW TO MID LEVELS
REMAINING MOIST SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. GFS NOT NEARLY AS
SATURATED OVER THE AREA DURING THIS TIME. NOT MUCH ELEVATED
INSTABILITY IS SEEN...SO THUNDER RISK SEEMS TO BE ON THE LOW SIDE.
THE GFS/CANADIAN/ECMWF SHOW LIGHTER QPF IN THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES
SATURDAY MORNING. KEPT LOWER END POPS IN THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE
AREA FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON
THE COOL SIDE WITH ONSHORE FLOW...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LAKE.
MORE DISAGREEMENT BY SATURDAY NIGHT...AS THE NAM/GFS/CANADIAN
CONTINUE TO BRING QPF INTO THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF COUNTIES...WITH
THE ECMWF DRY. CONTINUED LOW POPS FOR THE SOUTHWEST 2/3 OF THE
AREA FOR NOW. STRENGTH OF HIGH AND DRY EASTERLY FLOW WILL
DETERMINE HOW FAR EAST THE QPF COMES INTO THE AREA.
.SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
GFS/ECMWF CONTINUES TO SHOW DIFFERENCES IN THIS PERIOD. THE GFS
CONTINUES TO BRING ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...AS LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION ZONE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE AREA
DRY DURING THIS TIME...AS THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH TO THE EAST
HOLDS BACK ANY PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTHWEST. ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD
KEEP COOL TEMPERATURES GOING...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LAKE.
BOTH MODELS DO SHOW A GENERAL WARMING TREND BY WEDNESDAY...AS WARM
FRONT PUSHES NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION...AND 500MB FLOW
GRADUALLY BECOMES WEST TO SOUTHWEST. GFS CONTINUES TO BE A BIT
MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS NEAR AND NORTH OF THE
FRONT THAN THE ECMWF. FOR NOW...WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE CONSENSUS
POPS AND TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND CIGS FROM 1-2.5 KFT
WITH AREAS OF MVFR VSBYS WILL END FROM NW TO SE ACROSS SRN WI THIS
MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KMSN AROUND 15Z AND AROUND
17-18Z AT THE SE WI TAF SITES. BRISK AND GUSTY NLY WINDS WILL
PREVAIL THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WITH CLEAR SKIES AND MUCH LIGHTER
WINDS TNT.
&&
.MARINE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT TODAY AND TONIGHT
FOR BRISK AND GUSTY NLY WINDS AND VERY HIGH WAVES OF 6 TO 10 FEET.
WIND GUSTS COULD BRIEFLY REACH GALE FORCE THIS AM. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SETTLE OVER WI AND LAKE MI ON FRIDAY WITH MUCH LIGHTER WINDS
AND SMALLER WAVE HEIGHTS.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR LMZ644>646.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR LMZ643.
&&
$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...GEHRING
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WOOD
000
FXUS63 KMKX 230829
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
329 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM TO HIGH.
UPPER LOW AND RAIN SHOWERS TO EXIT SRN WI FROM NW TO SE
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING WITH COLD AND DRY AIR ADVECTION TO FOLLOW.
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT INTO MI THIS AFTERNOON AND DIG INTO
THE ERN USA FOR TNT AND FRI. SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED BY MID MORNING
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WI AND EARLY AFTERNOON OVER FAR SE WI. FCST
SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD MIXING WELL INLAND FROM THE LAKE GIVEN THE
DRIER AIRMASS AND FULL SUNSHINE. THUS 925 MB TEMPS AROUND 8C AND
850 MB TEMPS AROUND 2C YIELDS HIGHS AROUND 60F OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
WI. AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S
NEAR THE LAKE.
POLAR HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL THEN TRAVERSE TO WRN WI
BY 12Z SAT. MOS GUIDANCE AND 2 METER TEMPS SUGGEST LOW TEMPS WILL
BE MID TO UPPER 30S WITH ONLY PATCHY FROST EXPECTED. NO FROST
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.
.FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY WILL BRING QUIET
WEATHER...WITH A DRY AIRMASS PER AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM
NAM/GFS. COOL TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN WITH ONSHORE
WINDS...WITH MILDER VALUES INLAND.
FORECAST GETS MORE TRICKY FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT...AS MODELS ARE IN SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH THE PLACEMENT OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION. THE NAM CONTINUES TO BRING
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE
AREA LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...LINGERING INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO FOCUSED 850MB WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
FRONTOGENESIS RESPONSE OVER THIS AREA LATER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT...AS WELL AS THE 850MB LOW LEVEL JET POINTING INTO THE AREA.
GFS SHOWS THESE FEATURES AS WELL. 500MB RIDGE REMAINS JUST WEST OF
THE AREA DURING THIS TIME.
AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM SHOW SATURATION IN THE
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES LATER FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE LOW TO MID LEVELS
REMAINING MOIST SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. GFS NOT NEARLY AS
SATURATED OVER THE AREA DURING THIS TIME. NOT MUCH ELEVATED
INSTABILITY IS SEEN...SO THUNDER RISK SEEMS TO BE ON THE LOW SIDE.
THE GFS/CANADIAN/ECMWF SHOW LIGHTER QPF IN THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES
SATURDAY MORNING. KEPT LOWER END POPS IN THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE
AREA FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON
THE COOL SIDE WITH ONSHORE FLOW...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LAKE.
MORE DISAGREEMENT BY SATURDAY NIGHT...AS THE NAM/GFS/CANADIAN
CONTINUE TO BRING QPF INTO THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF COUNTIES...WITH
THE ECMWF DRY. CONTINUED LOW POPS FOR THE SOUTHWEST 2/3 OF THE
AREA FOR NOW. STRENGTH OF HIGH AND DRY EASTERLY FLOW WILL
DETERMINE HOW FAR EAST THE QPF COMES INTO THE AREA.
.SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
GFS/ECMWF CONTINUES TO SHOW DIFFERENCES IN THIS PERIOD. THE GFS
CONTINUES TO BRING ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...AS LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION ZONE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE AREA
DRY DURING THIS TIME...AS THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH TO THE EAST
HOLDS BACK ANY PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTHWEST. ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD
KEEP COOL TEMPERATURES GOING...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LAKE.
BOTH MODELS DO SHOW A GENERAL WARMING TREND BY WEDNESDAY...AS WARM
FRONT PUSHES NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION...AND 500MB FLOW
GRADUALLY BECOMES WEST TO SOUTHWEST. GFS CONTINUES TO BE A BIT
MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS NEAR AND NORTH OF THE
FRONT THAN THE ECMWF. FOR NOW...WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE CONSENSUS
POPS AND TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND CIGS FROM 1-2.5 KFT
WITH AREAS OF MVFR VSBYS WILL END FROM NW TO SE ACROSS SRN WI THIS
MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KMSN AROUND 15Z AND AROUND
17-18Z AT THE SE WI TAF SITES. BRISK AND GUSTY NLY WINDS WILL
PREVAIL THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WITH CLEAR SKIES AND MUCH LIGHTER
WINDS TNT.
&&
.MARINE...COMING SOON...
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR LMZ644>646.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR LMZ643.
&&
$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...GEHRING
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WOOD
000
FXUS63 KMKX 230305
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1005 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
.UPDATE...
THE MID LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHEAST IOWA WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST. THE
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. A WINDSHIFT EXTENDS FROM NEAR
MINERAL POINT TO JANESVILLE. SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE OCCURRING JUST
NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...BUT WILL LOSS OF HEATING THESE SHOWERS
HAVE DIMINISHED A LITTLE SO MAINLY MODERATE RAINS EXPECTED.
AS THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES SOUTHEAST...THE AREA OF SHOWERS WILL
ALSO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH ALONG WITH THE BOUNDARY.
&&
.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...
IFR/LIFR CIGS MAINLY NORTH A A BOUNDARY FROM MINERAL POINT TO
JANESVILLE. AS THIS BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTH THE MOIST NORTHEAST LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL BRING THE IFR/LIFR SOUTH.
EXPECT DRYING THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHEN CIGS WILL RISE TO VFR FROM
THE NORTH.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA. TEMPS THURSDAY
NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE 30S MOST PLACES WITH THE COLDEST READINGS
ALONG THE KETTLE MORAINE SPINE IN SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN. WE COULD
SEE SOME PATCHY FROST IN THAT AREA.
FRIDAY LOOKS SUNNY WITH TEMPS JUST A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. AREAS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN WILL BE MUCH COOLER DUE TO THE
EXPECTED EASTERLY WIND.
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...FORCAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.
THE RIDGE BEGINS TO DRIFT EAST BY FRIDAY NIGHT. A SURGE OF WARM
ADVECTION WILL TRY TO BRING IN SOME THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WEST
AFTER MIDNIGHT CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY. THE NAM IS VERY
AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS...BOTH IN QPF AND EASTWARD EXTENT...WHILE
THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE SLOWER AND ALSO KEEPING IT FARTHER WEST.
THE CONSENSUS APPROACH LOOKS REASONABLE AND ONLY BRINGS A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA...MAINLY SOUTHWEST OF MADISON. AS THE ASSOCIATED
LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS ON SATURDAY...THIS SHOULD HELP TO DIMINISH
ANY LINGERING PRECIP BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW TO MEDIUM.
WE WILL BE IN A RATHER STEADY...UNCHANGING PATTERN DURING THIS
PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE HOLDING OVER THE GREAT LAKES WHILE
LOW PRESSURE HOLDS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ALOFT...THE RIGHT
REAR QUADRANT OF THE UPPER JET WILL BE HOVERING OVER THE
AREA...PROVIDING A RATHER SUSTAINED AREA OF UPPER DIVERGENCE/UVV
OVER THE CWA. AT THE SAME TIME...IN THE LOWER LEVELS...THE LOW
LEVEL JET WILL BE PERSISTENT...STRETCHING FROM KANSAS...MISSOURI
INTO IOWA. WE COULD SEE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RIDING SHOWERS AND
STORMS ROLL IN FROM THE NORTHWEST FROM TIME TO TIME...MAINLY
ACROSS THE SW FORECAST AREA. WHILE OUR NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA
COULD REMAIN DRY...PROTECTED FROM THE DRIER AIRMASS WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM. IT IS DIFFICULT AT THIS POINT TO KNOW JUST WHERE
THIS PATTERN WILL LOCK IN. DRIER AND COOLER AIR FROM THE EAST
WILL BE COMPETING WITH MORE MOIST AIR TRYING TO PUSH IN FROM THE
WEST. THIS EXPLAINS THE RATHER EXTENDED PERIOD OF CHCY RAIN IN THE
FORECAST.
AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...AS UPPER LOW OPENS UP AND PROGRESSES A BIT
QUICKER EASTWARD FROM IOWA...MVFR CEILINGS WILL BECOME PREVALENT.
SOME IFR CEILINGS TOO ARE EXPECTED ESPECIALLY WITH ANY SHRA. GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL START INCREASING AFTER 6Z. THESE GUSTY WINDS
WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THURSDAY ESPECIALLY AT THE EASTERN TAF
SITES.
MARINE...AS SURFACE TROUGH AXIS SLIDES SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH COLD ADVECTION. DECENT FETCH WILL
LEAD TO SOME HIGH WAVE ACTION. CLOSE CALL ON THE GALE POTENTIAL
THURSDAY BUT FOR NOW ELECTED TO KEEP THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN
PLACE.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM THURSDAY TO 4 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR
LMZ644>646.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM THURSDAY TO 1 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR
LMZ643.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HENTZ
TONIGHT/THURSDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...COLLAR
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DAVIS
000
FXUS63 KMKX 222001
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
301 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
TONIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO PLOD EVER SO SLOWLY EAST FROM NRN IA. LOW
LEVEL MOIST AXIS...DEW POINTS IN THE LOW 60S...EXTENDS FROM ERN IL
INTO SC WI PER ISODROSOTHERM ANALYSIS. LOW LEVEL DRY AIR OOZING IN
FROM ERN IA AND SW WI. BEST 700-300 MILLIBAR Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE
THIS EVENING THEN A GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THAT SIGNAL. AS 500 LOW
CENTER OPENS UP AND AXIS OF SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH AROUND 6-9Z
WILL KEEP THE LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS IN PLACE...THOUGH BASED ON RADAR
TRENDS...APPEARS A BREAK FOR A TIME THIS EVENING UNTIL THE INFLUENCE
OF THE LOW DRAWS CLOSER. HOWEVER WITH A WEDGE OF CLEARING MAY ALLOW
FOR A FEW MORE SHRA/ISOLD TSRA TO POP BEFORE THEN. 850 COLD
ADVECTION INCREASES AFTER 6Z.
THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
CONSENSUS OF PROGS IS TO LINGER SOME LIGHT QPF IN THE SOUTHEAST CWA
DURING THE MORNING. MAIN STORY WILL BE MUCH COOLER AND WINDY
CONDITIONS. 850 TEMPERATURES DROP TO 1-3C WITH THE PERSISTENT COLD
ADVECTION REGIME. 925 TEMPS RANGE FROM 6-9C SO MANY 50S EXPECTED
WITH BETTER SHOT AT 60 OR LOW 60S IN THE WESTERN CWA.
.THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA. TEMPS THURSDAY
NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE 30S MOST PLACES WITH THE COLDEST READINGS
ALONG THE KETTLE MORAINE SPINE IN SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN. WE COULD
SEE SOME PATCHY FROST IN THAT AREA.
FRIDAY LOOKS SUNNY WITH TEMPS JUST A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. AREAS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN WILL BE MUCH COOLER DUE TO THE
EXPECTED EASTERLY WIND.
.FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...FORCAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.
THE RIDGE BEGINS TO DRIFT EAST BY FRIDAY NIGHT. A SURGE OF WARM
ADVECTION WILL TRY TO BRING IN SOME THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WEST
AFTER MIDNIGHT CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY. THE NAM IS VERY
AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS...BOTH IN QPF AND EASTWARD EXTENT...WHILE
THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE SLOWER AND ALSO KEEPING IT FARTHER WEST.
THE CONSENSUS APPROACH LOOKS REASONABLE AND ONLY BRINGS A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA...MAINLY SOUTHWEST OF MADISON. AS THE ASSOCIATED
LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS ON SATURDAY...THIS SHOULD HELP TO DIMINISH
ANY LINGERING PRECIP BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
.SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW TO MEDIUM.
WE WILL BE IN A RATHER STEADY...UNCHANGING PATTERN DURING THIS
PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE HOLDING OVER THE GREAT LAKES WHILE
LOW PRESSURE HOLDS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ALOFT...THE RIGHT
REAR QUADRANT OF THE UPPER JET WILL BE HOVERING OVER THE
AREA...PROVIDING A RATHER SUSTAINED AREA OF UPPER DIVERGENCE/UVV
OVER THE CWA. AT THE SAME TIME...IN THE LOWER LEVELS...THE LOW
LEVEL JET WILL BE PERSISTENT...STRETCHING FROM KANSAS...MISSOURI
INTO IOWA. WE COULD SEE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RIDING SHOWERS AND
STORMS ROLL IN FROM THE NORTHWEST FROM TIME TO TIME...MAINLY
ACROSS THE SW FORECAST AREA. WHILE OUR NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA
COULD REMAIN DRY...PROTECTED FROM THE DRIER AIRMASS WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM. IT IS DIFFICULT AT THIS POINT TO KNOW JUST WHERE
THIS PATTERN WILL LOCK IN. DRIER AND COOLER AIR FROM THE EAST
WILL BE COMPETING WITH MORE MOIST AIR TRYING TO PUSH IN FROM THE
WEST. THIS EXPLAINS THE RATHER EXTENDED PERIOD OF CHCY RAIN IN THE
FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...AS UPPER LOW OPENS UP AND PROGRESSES A BIT
QUICKER EASTWARD FROM IOWA...MVFR CEILINGS WILL BECOME PREVALENT.
SOME IFR CEILINGS TOO ARE EXPECTED ESPECIALLY WITH ANY SHRA. GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL START INCREASING AFTER 6Z. THESE GUSTY WINDS
WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THURSDAY ESPECIALLY AT THE EASTERN TAF
SITES.
&&
.MARINE...AS SURFACE TROUGH AXIS SLIDES SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH COLD ADVECTION. DECENT FETCH WILL
LEAD TO SOME HIGH WAVE ACTION. CLOSE CALL ON THE GALE POTENTIAL
THURSDAY BUT FOR NOW ELECTED TO KEEP THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN
PLACE.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM THURSDAY TO 4 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR
LMZ644>646.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM THURSDAY TO 1 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR
LMZ643.
&&
$$
TONIGHT/THURSDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...COLLAR
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DAVIS
000
FXUS63 KMKX 221641
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1141 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...500 MILLIBAR CLOSED LOW PER WATER VAPOR/RUC
CONTINUES TO PLOD VERY SLOWLY EAST. MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTH INTO
EASTERN CWA. DECENT SURGE OF SHRA/TSRA HEADING INTO SE WI FROM NE
IL. PRECIP IS EXPECTED FILL IN ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA WITH
THE AID OF THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW. CEILINGS HAVE IMPROVED TO
THE SOUTH THOUGH EXPECT SOME LOWERING OF CEILINGS. NAM/GFS MOS
BOTH LOWER THINGS TO BELOW 500 FEET WIT TIME AND THIS WOULD BE
PLAUSIBLE WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN. TRENDED THAT WAY BUT WILL NEED TO
HAVE MORE RAIN FILL IN ACROSS THE AREA. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS KICK
IN LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH HIGHEST WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
LAKE MICHIGAN. PRECIP ENDS EARLY THURSDAY AS LOW MOVES AWAY.
PC
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 420 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/
TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH
NEW SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OVER NE IL WILL STREAM NNEWD INTO SERN WI
EARLY THIS AM. THE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTORMS WILL THEN EXPAND BY
LATE MORNING AS A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH PIVOTS NWD THROUGH
THE REGION FROM ITS CURRENT POSITION OVER MO. THE MAIN UPPER LOW
WILL THEN MOVE EWD ACROSS SRN WI TNT. MODEL OUTPUT AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW PWS OVER AN INCH THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH MOIST
ADIABATIC TO SLIGHTLY CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. THESE MOIST CONDITIONS ALONG WITH WEAK FLOW ALOFT AND AREAS
OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL MAKE FOR GOOD PCPN EFFICIENCY AND
MODERATE TO POSSIBLY SOMETIMES HEAVY RAINFALL RATES. FORECASTING AN
AVERAGE OF AN INCH OF RAIN FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT BUT LOCALIZED
AMOUNTS OF 2 INCHES OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM TO
HIGH.
LAST 500MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM SLIDES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY MORNING...WITH NAM/GFS AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING
SOME LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING. THUS...WILL KEEP POPS
GOING THURSDAY MORNING. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP GUSTY
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS GOING AS WELL.
COLD AIR ADVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON PUSHES SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE AREA...AS THE 500MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM EXITS THE REGION.
DOWNWARD MOTION SCOURS OUT THE MOISTURE DURING THIS TIME PER AREA
FORECAST SOUNDINGS. COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY...AS
WINDS REMAIN ONSHORE AND SLOWLY WEAKEN.
SHORT TERM MODELS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DECOUPLED WINDS INLAND
AND COLD TEMPERATURES PER 925MB AND MOS GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES.
LOWS SHOULD DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S AND PERHAPS A BIT
COLDER...WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME FROST. ADDED PATCHY FROST FOR
MOST OF THE AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION FRIDAY. AREA
FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO REMAIN DRY FRIDAY...SO KEPT THIS
PERIOD DRY. SOME RECOVERY IN HIGHS FOR FRIDAY ARE ANTICIPATED...AS
SLIGHTLY WARMER 925MB TEMPERATURES PUSH INTO THE AREA. ONSHORE
WINDS WILL KEEP LAKESHORE AREAS COOL.
NAM TRIES TO PUSH AN AREA OF FOCUSED 850MB WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
FRONTOGENESIS RESPONSE INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA...ALONG WITH AN 850MB LOW LEVEL JET NOSE. ECMWF ALSO TRIES TO
BRING IN QPF TO THE FAR WEST...WITH THE GFS AND CANADIAN KEEPING
THESE FEATURES WEST OF THE AREA. FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION LOW POPS IN THE WEST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MEDIUM.
THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER GREATLY WITH MOST FEATURES DURING THIS
PERIOD. THE GFS SHOWS A WEST TO EAST ORIENTED WARM FRONT SETTING
UP TO THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY...BEFORE PUSHING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
500MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM SLIDES JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA LATE
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER PASSING JUST SOUTH
SUNDAY...BEFORE A THIRD ONE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.
THIS SETUP BRINGS SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE
REGION.
AFTER PASSING QPF WITH THE FOCUSED WARM AIR ADVECTION AND LOW
LEVEL JET NOSE SATURDAY...THE ECMWF KEEPS THE EFFECTS OF HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA. IT KEEPS THE SYSTEM THE GFS HAD
AFFECTING SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION. EITHER
SETUP WOULD HAVE ONSHORE WINDS FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD...KEEPING
TEMPERATURES COOL NEAR THE LAKE. FOR NOW...WILL USE CONSENSUS POPS
AND TEMPERATURES FOR THIS PERIOD.
AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD SRN WI THIS AM AND
CONTINUE THROUGH TNT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. LOCAL
MVFR VSBYS FROM EARLY THIS AM WILL GIVE WAY TO MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS
WITH THE RAIN. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL LOWER TO IFR LEVELS FOR TNT.
MARINE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT LATE TNT INTO THU
NIGHT FOR BRISK NORTH WINDS AND HIGH WAVES. THE HIGH WINDS AND WAVES
WILL DEVELOP WHEN LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF LAKE MI AND THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES. MUCH LIGHTER WINDS AND WAVES ARE
EXPECTED FOR FRI WHEN HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER LAKE MI.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM THURSDAY TO 4 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR
LMZ644>646.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM THURSDAY TO 1 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR
LMZ643.
&&
$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...GEHRING
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WOOD
000
FXUS63 KMKX 220920
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
420 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH
NEW SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OVER NE IL WILL STREAM NNEWD INTO SERN WI
EARLY THIS AM. THE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTORMS WILL THEN EXPAND BY
LATE MORNING AS A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH PIVOTS NWD THROUGH
THE REGION FROM ITS CURRENT POSITION OVER MO. THE MAIN UPPER LOW
WILL THEN MOVE EWD ACROSS SRN WI TNT. MODEL OUTPUT AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW PWS OVER AN INCH THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH MOIST
ADIABATIC TO SLIGHTLY CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. THESE MOIST CONDITIONS ALONG WITH WEAK FLOW ALOFT AND AREAS
OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL MAKE FOR GOOD PCPN EFFICIENCY AND
MODERATE TO POSSIBLY SOMETIMES HEAVY RAINFALL RATES. FORECASTING AN
AVERAGE OF AN INCH OF RAIN FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT BUT LOCALIZED
AMOUNTS OF 2 INCHES OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE.
.THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM TO
HIGH.
LAST 500MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM SLIDES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY MORNING...WITH NAM/GFS AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING
SOME LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING. THUS...WILL KEEP POPS
GOING THURSDAY MORNING. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP GUSTY
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS GOING AS WELL.
COLD AIR ADVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON PUSHES SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE AREA...AS THE 500MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM EXITS THE REGION.
DOWNWARD MOTION SCOURS OUT THE MOISTURE DURING THIS TIME PER AREA
FORECAST SOUNDINGS. COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY...AS
WINDS REMAIN ONSHORE AND SLOWLY WEAKEN.
SHORT TERM MODELS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DECOUPLED WINDS INLAND
AND COLD TEMPERATURES PER 925MB AND MOS GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES.
LOWS SHOULD DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S AND PERHAPS A BIT
COLDER...WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME FROST. ADDED PATCHY FROST FOR
MOST OF THE AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION FRIDAY. AREA
FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO REMAIN DRY FRIDAY...SO KEPT THIS
PERIOD DRY. SOME RECOVERY IN HIGHS FOR FRIDAY ARE ANTICIPATED...AS
SLIGHTLY WARMER 925MB TEMPERATURES PUSH INTO THE AREA. ONSHORE
WINDS WILL KEEP LAKESHORE AREAS COOL.
NAM TRIES TO PUSH AN AREA OF FOCUSED 850MB WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
FRONTOGENESIS RESPONSE INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA...ALONG WITH AN 850MB LOW LEVEL JET NOSE. ECMWF ALSO TRIES TO
BRING IN QPF TO THE FAR WEST...WITH THE GFS AND CANADIAN KEEPING
THESE FEATURES WEST OF THE AREA. FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION LOW POPS IN THE WEST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.
.SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MEDIUM.
THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER GREATLY WITH MOST FEATURES DURING THIS
PERIOD. THE GFS SHOWS A WEST TO EAST ORIENTED WARM FRONT SETTING
UP TO THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY...BEFORE PUSHING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
500MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM SLIDES JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA LATE
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER PASSING JUST SOUTH
SUNDAY...BEFORE A THIRD ONE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.
THIS SETUP BRINGS SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE
REGION.
AFTER PASSING QPF WITH THE FOCUSED WARM AIR ADVECTION AND LOW
LEVEL JET NOSE SATURDAY...THE ECMWF KEEPS THE EFFECTS OF HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA. IT KEEPS THE SYSTEM THE GFS HAD
AFFECTING SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION. EITHER
SETUP WOULD HAVE ONSHORE WINDS FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD...KEEPING
TEMPERATURES COOL NEAR THE LAKE. FOR NOW...WILL USE CONSENSUS POPS
AND TEMPERATURES FOR THIS PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD SRN WI THIS AM AND
CONTINUE THROUGH TNT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. LOCAL
MVFR VSBYS FROM EARLY THIS AM WILL GIVE WAY TO MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS
WITH THE RAIN. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL LOWER TO IFR LEVELS FOR TNT.
&&
.MARINE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT LATE TNT INTO THU
NIGHT FOR BRISK NORTH WINDS AND HIGH WAVES. THE HIGH WINDS AND WAVES
WILL DEVELOP WHEN LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF LAKE MI AND THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES. MUCH LIGHTER WINDS AND WAVES ARE
EXPECTED FOR FRI WHEN HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER LAKE MI.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...GEHRING
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WOOD
000
FXUS63 KMKX 220830
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
330 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
.TODAY AND TONIGHT...COMING SOON...
.THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM TO
HIGH.
LAST 500MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM SLIDES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY MORNING...WITH NAM/GFS AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING
SOME LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING. THUS...WILL KEEP POPS
GOING THURSDAY MORNING. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP GUSTY
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS GOING AS WELL.
COLD AIR ADVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON PUSHES SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE AREA...AS THE 500MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM EXITS THE REGION.
DOWNWARD MOTION SCOURS OUT THE MOISTURE DURING THIS TIME PER AREA
FORECAST SOUNDINGS. COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY...AS
WINDS REMAIN ONSHORE AND SLOWLY WEAKEN.
SHORT TERM MODELS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DECOUPLED WINDS INLAND
AND COLD TEMPERATURES PER 925MB AND MOS GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES.
LOWS SHOULD DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S AND PERHAPS A BIT
COLDER...WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME FROST. ADDED PATCHY FROST FOR
MOST OF THE AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION FRIDAY. AREA
FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO REMAIN DRY FRIDAY...SO KEPT THIS
PERIOD DRY. SOME RECOVERY IN HIGHS FOR FRIDAY ARE ANTICIPATED...AS
SLIGHTLY WARMER 925MB TEMPERATURES PUSH INTO THE AREA. ONSHORE
WINDS WILL KEEP LAKESHORE AREAS COOL.
NAM TRIES TO PUSH AN AREA OF FOCUSED 850MB WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
FRONTOGENESIS RESPONSE INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA...ALONG WITH AN 850MB LOW LEVEL JET NOSE. ECMWF ALSO TRIES TO
BRING IN QPF TO THE FAR WEST...WITH THE GFS AND CANADIAN KEEPING
THESE FEATURES WEST OF THE AREA. FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION LOW POPS IN THE WEST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.
.SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MEDIUM.
THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER GREATLY WITH MOST FEATURES DURING THIS
PERIOD. THE GFS SHOWS A WEST TO EAST ORIENTED WARM FRONT SETTING
UP TO THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY...BEFORE PUSHING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
500MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM SLIDES JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA LATE
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER PASSING JUST SOUTH
SUNDAY...BEFORE A THIRD ONE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.
THIS SETUP BRINGS SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE
REGION.
AFTER PASSING QPF WITH THE FOCUSED WARM AIR ADVECTION AND LOW
LEVEL JET NOSE SATURDAY...THE ECMWF KEEPS THE EFFECTS OF HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA. IT KEEPS THE SYSTEM THE GFS HAD
AFFECTING SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION. EITHER
SETUP WOULD HAVE ONSHORE WINDS FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD...KEEPING
TEMPERATURES COOL NEAR THE LAKE. FOR NOW...WILL USE CONSENSUS POPS
AND TEMPERATURES FOR THIS PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...COMING SOON...
&&
.MARINE...COMING SOON...
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...GEHRING
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WOOD
000
FXUS63 KMKX 220252
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
952 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.UPDATE...
DO NOT EXPECT SHOWERS UNTIL LATE MORNING AS CYCLONIC VORTICITY MAXIMUM
ROTATES AROUND UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN IOWA AND INTO SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN. 00Z NAM HAS MODERATE 700 MB UPWARD MOTION OF 7 MICROBARS/SEC
WITH THIS FEATURE.
&&
.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT FOR MVFR VSBYS IN FOG AROUND SUNRISE.
EXPECT SHOWERS TO SPREAD INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN LATE MORNING
RESULTING IN SOME MVFR CIGS/VSBYS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013/
VERY SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
TONIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
TWO DISTINCT CIRCULATION CENTERS SHOW UP NICELY ON WATER VAPOR. THIS
FIRST IN NORTHERN MN AND THE SECOND ON THE SD/MN BORDER. ISOLD TSRA
POPPED UP ALONG WIND SHIFT/MOISTURE GRADIENT DURING THE AFTERNOON.
UPPER JET CORE ON EASTERN SIDE OF CIRCULATION CENTER CONTINUES TO
STREAM ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. IN THE LOW LEVELS DRY AIR HAS
WRAPPED IN ON SW WINDS. A SECONDARY LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS SOUTHERN IL AND THEN TRACK UP NEAR CHICAGO BY 12Z.
MOISTURE/QPF SNEAKS INTO THE FAR SE BETWEEN 6-12Z...THE GFS BEING A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE DRY NAM AND THE MORE ROBUST 12Z ECMWF.
WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
PASSING LOW TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST IN COMBO WITH EVOLVING SURFACE
TROUGH/850 TROUGH SETS UP DECENT LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX
CONVERGENCE WITH THE CONVERGING LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS. THIS COMBINED
WITH THE GRADUAL PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LOW TOWARDS WI SHOULD
RESULT IN A DECENT COVERAGE OF SHRA. CAPE IS LIMITED SO NOT THINKING
HIGHLY OF THUNDER POTENTIAL.
SHORT TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
STACKED LOW...NOW EVOLVING INTO AN OPEN TROUGH...MOVES ACROSS AND
OUT OF FORECAST AREA AS IT PHASES WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPPING
ACROSS HUDSON BAY/JAMES BAY PRODUCING A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. THAT EVENTUALLY CLOSES OFF OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
SATURDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE
DEPARTING LOW WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS IN THE EVENING AS DEFORMATION ZONE ASSOCIATED
WITH 850-700 MB LOWS DROPS THROUGH REGION REFLECTED IN LAYER
Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE MAXIMA...SLOWLY DIMINISHING FROM NW TO SE AFTER
06Z. WILL KEEP A CHANCE THURSDAY MORNING FOR THE SE 1/2 UNTIL CVA
WITH LAST TRAILING SHORT WAVE CLEARS THE EAST AROUND 18Z.
FORECAST QPF THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY IS FOR A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD 0.50 TO
0.75 INCH RAINFALL FOR THE CWA...BUT IF ATMOSPHERE BECOMES A BIT
MORE UNSTABLE THAN EXPECTED WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...AMOUNTS COULD
GO LOCALLY HIGHER THOUGH THUNDER CHANCES REMAIN TOO LOW TO MENTION
AT THIS TIME.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND 925 MB TEMPS INDICATE LOWS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THURSDAY HIGHS ONLY IN
THE MID-UPPER 50S WITH FLOW OFF OF THE LAKE IN THE EAST...WHILE
SUPERADIABATIC BUMP ALLOWS MID 60S IN THE WEST.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH.
COLD AIR SETTLES OVER REGION UNDER THE CORE OF THE SURFACE
HIGH...WITH 925 MB TEMPERATURES OF 4C TO 5C BY 12Z FRIDAY. WITH
DECOUPLED WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES LOW TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE
UPPER 30S EXCEPT IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WESTERN SOUTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN AND ALONG THE LAKE. SOME LOWER LOCATIONS LIKE THE VALLEYS
OF THE KETTLE MORAINE MAY SEE FROST.
HIGH SHIFT EAST THURSDAY...ALLOWING A LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA...WITH 925 MB TEMPERATURES
RECOVERING TO 10C TO 12C. EXPECT MID TO UPPER 60S THERE...WHILE
SINGLE DIGIT 925 MB READINGS AND AFTERNOON LAKE BREEZE HOLD HIGHS IN
THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 IN THE EAST.
LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE
MEDIUM TO LOW.
EVENTUAL LOCATION OF CLOSED LOW AND UPPER JET KEY TO
WEATHER...ESPECIALLY FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. GFS HAS A WEAKER
NARROWER 850 MB RIDGE OVER THE REGION WHICH ALLOWS PERIODS OF
SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS...TO FIRE ALONG BAROCLINIC
RIBBON THAT BECOMES SITUATED ALONG THE MS RIVER. SUBSEQUENT
ISENTROPIC LIFT/SLOPED FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ALONG THE TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OF RIGHT ENTRANCE OF
PERSISTENT 250 MB JET MAX. ECMWF FARTHER WEST WITH BAROCLINIC ZONE
AND KEEPS PCPN WEST OF CWA AFTER GLANCING THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT.
BLENDED POPS KEEPS CHANCE POPS IN THE WEST FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT...AND SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE EAST. MODELS DIVERGE FOR
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DUE TO
BLENDING. AFTER ONLY REACHING THE 60S FOR HIGHS FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...70S TRY TO PUSH BACK IN FOR MONDAY...BUT MAINLY IN THE SW
PORTION OF CWA.
AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...LOW LEVEL DRY AIR INFLUX FROM THE SOUTHWEST
HAS DIMINISHED INSTABILITY. PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER WRAPPING AROUND
MID/UPPER CIRCULATION CENTERS IN THE PLAINS. A LOT OF THIS HAS A
DIURNAL LOOK TO IT. EXPECT MORE CLOUD COVER LATER TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS SECONDARY SURFACE LOW HEADS NORTHEAST. MODELS BRING
MORE PRECIP INTO THE AREA WITH THIS FEATURE AND EASTWARD PUSH OF
SLOW MOVING MID LEVEL CIRCULATION FROM THE PLAINS. SO EXPECTING MVFR
CEILINGS WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SHRA.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HENTZ
TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...COLLAR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...REM
000
FXUS63 KMKX 212039
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
339 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.VERY SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
TONIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
TWO DISTINCT CIRCULATION CENTERS SHOW UP NICELY ON WATER VAPOR. THIS
FIRST IN NORTHERN MN AND THE SECOND ON THE SD/MN BORDER. ISOLD TSRA
POPPED UP ALONG WIND SHIFT/MOISTURE GRADIENT DURING THE AFTERNOON.
UPPER JET CORE ON EASTERN SIDE OF CIRCULATION CENTER CONTINUES TO
STREAM ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. IN THE LOW LEVELS DRY AIR HAS
WRAPPED IN ON SW WINDS. A SECONDARY LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS SOUTHERN IL AND THEN TRACK UP NEAR CHICAGO BY 12Z.
MOISTURE/QPF SNEAKS INTO THE FAR SE BETWEEN 6-12Z...THE GFS BEING A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE DRY NAM AND THE MORE ROBUST 12Z ECMWF.
WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
PASSING LOW TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST IN COMBO WITH EVOLVING SURFACE
TROUGH/850 TROUGH SETS UP DECENT LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX
CONVERGENCE WITH THE CONVERGING LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS. THIS COMBINED
WITH THE GRADUAL PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LOW TOWARDS WI SHOULD
RESULT IN A DECENT COVERAGE OF SHRA. CAPE IS LIMITED SO NOT THINKING
HIGHLY OF THUNDER POTENTIAL.
.SHORT TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
STACKED LOW...NOW EVOLVING INTO AN OPEN TROUGH...MOVES ACROSS AND
OUT OF FORECAST AREA AS IT PHASES WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPPING
ACROSS HUDSON BAY/JAMES BAY PRODUCING A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. THAT EVENTUALLY CLOSES OFF OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
SATURDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE
DEPARTING LOW WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS IN THE EVENING AS DEFORMATION ZONE ASSOCIATED
WITH 850-700 MB LOWS DROPS THROUGH REGION REFLECTED IN LAYER
Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE MAXIMA...SLOWLY DIMINISHING FROM NW TO SE AFTER
06Z. WILL KEEP A CHANCE THURSDAY MORNING FOR THE SE 1/2 UNTIL CVA
WITH LAST TRAILING SHORT WAVE CLEARS THE EAST AROUND 18Z.
FORECAST QPF THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY IS FOR A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD 0.50 TO
0.75 INCH RAINFALL FOR THE CWA...BUT IF ATMOSPHERE BECOMES A BIT
MORE UNSTABLE THAN EXPECTED WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...AMOUNTS COULD
GO LOCALLY HIGHER THOUGH THUNDER CHANCES REMAIN TOO LOW TO MENTION
AT THIS TIME.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND 925 MB TEMPS INDICATE LOWS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THURSDAY HIGHS ONLY IN
THE MID-UPPER 50S WITH FLOW OFF OF THE LAKE IN THE EAST...WHILE
SUPERADIABATIC BUMP ALLOWS MID 60S IN THE WEST.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH.
COLD AIR SETTLES OVER REGION UNDER THE CORE OF THE SURFACE
HIGH...WITH 925 MB TEMPERATURES OF 4C TO 5C BY 12Z FRIDAY. WITH
DECOUPLED WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES LOW TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE
UPPER 30S EXCEPT IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WESTERN SOUTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN AND ALONG THE LAKE. SOME LOWER LOCATIONS LIKE THE VALLEYS
OF THE KETTLE MORAINE MAY SEE FROST.
HIGH SHIFT EAST THURSDAY...ALLOWING A LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA...WITH 925 MB TEMPERATURES
RECOVERING TO 10C TO 12C. EXPECT MID TO UPPER 60S THERE...WHILE
SINGLE DIGIT 925 MB READINGS AND AFTERNOON LAKE BREEZE HOLD HIGHS IN
THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 IN THE EAST.
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE
MEDIUM TO LOW.
EVENTUAL LOCATION OF CLOSED LOW AND UPPER JET KEY TO
WEATHER...ESPECIALLY FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. GFS HAS A WEAKER
NARROWER 850 MB RIDGE OVER THE REGION WHICH ALLOWS PERIODS OF
SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS...TO FIRE ALONG BAROCLINIC
RIBBON THAT BECOMES SITUATED ALONG THE MS RIVER. SUBSEQUENT
ISENTROPIC LIFT/SLOPED FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ALONG THE TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OF RIGHT ENTRANCE OF
PERSISTENT 250 MB JET MAX. ECMWF FARTHER WEST WITH BAROCLINIC ZONE
AND KEEPS PCPN WEST OF CWA AFTER GLANCING THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT.
BLENDED POPS KEEPS CHANCE POPS IN THE WEST FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT...AND SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE EAST. MODELS DIVERGE FOR
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DUE TO
BLENDING. AFTER ONLY REACHING THE 60S FOR HIGHS FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...70S TRY TO PUSH BACK IN FOR MONDAY...BUT MAINLY IN THE SW
PORTION OF CWA.
&&
.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...LOW LEVEL DRY AIR INFLUX FROM THE SOUTHWEST
HAS DIMINISHED INSTABILITY. PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER WRAPPING AROUND
MID/UPPER CIRCULATION CENTERS IN THE PLAINS. A LOT OF THIS HAS A
DIURNAL LOOK TO IT. EXPECT MORE CLOUD COVER LATER TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS SECONDARY SURFACE LOW HEADS NORTHEAST. MODELS BRING
MORE PRECIP INTO THE AREA WITH THIS FEATURE AND EASTWARD PUSH OF
SLOW MOVING MID LEVEL CIRCULATION FROM THE PLAINS. SO EXPECTING MVFR
CEILINGS WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SHRA.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...COLLAR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...REM
000
FXUS63 KMKX 211651
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1151 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...LIMITED CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WITH LACK OF
FORCING AND DRY AIR ADVECTION IN LOW LEVELS AS WINDS START TO
SHIFT SW. ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT NORTH OF THE CWA WILL CONTINUE TO
PULL AWAY TO THE NE. THIS WAS IN AGREEMENT WITH LATEST HRRR RUN.
EVERYTHING PRETTY MUCH SHUTS DOWN WITH CU FIELD FILLING IN FROM
IA AND NW IL. SOME CEILINGS ARE MVFR WITHIN THIS CLOUD FIELD. MORE
SHRA AND LOWER CEILINGS ON WEDNESDAY AS LOW DEVELOPS AND MOVES TO
OUR SOUTH AND EAST.
PC
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 537 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013/
TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM
AREAS OF STRATUS WILL PREVAIL EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SOME CLEARING
BY MID TO LATE MORNING. THIS WILL AID DAYTIME HEATING AND
INSTABILITY FOR LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. VARIOUS MODEL
SOUNDINGS VARY WITH EXPECTED CAPE VALUES FROM VERY LITTLE UP TO 1000
J/KG. THIS HAS TO DO WITH DIFFERENCES IN MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
DEWPOINTS. WILL COUNT ON MARGINAL CAPE PERHAPS UP TO 500 J/KG.
TRIGGERS FOR CONVECTION TODAY ARE WEAK WITH A COUPLE WEAK VORTICITY
MAXIMUMS TO SWING NWD IN THE SLY FLOW ALOFT OF THE UPPER LOW. A WEAK
SFC TROUGH MAY ALSO BECOME PRESENT AS SLY WINDS TURN MORE WLY. WILL
GO WITH CHANCES OF TSTORMS FROM LATE AM THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LOW
PROBABILITIES OF SEVERE WX WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN MDT DEEP LAYER
SHEAR AND MID LEVEL DRY AIR.
THE UPPER LOW WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO MOVE SEWD INTO WRN IA BY 12Z
WED. THE FORWARD TILT UPPER TROUGH WILL BECOME MORE NEGATIVE TILT
WITH SATURATION AND RAIN POSSIBLE IN FAR SE WI BY 12Z.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
THE STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FINALLY SLIDES INTO THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY AND PASSES OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS IMPRESSIVE
AND RATHER SUSTAINED Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
DEEP MOISTURE AVAILABLE. THIS LOOKS LIKE OUR BEST CHANCE FOR A
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL SO WILL JUST CARRY A
CHANCE FOR STORMS. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
WINDS ALSO TURN ONSHORE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...SO AREAS CLOSE TO
THE LAKE WILL COOL OFF QUITE A BIT.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.
WILL LINGER A CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY
MORNING AS THE REMNANTS OF THE UPPER LOW PULL AWAY. THEN MUCH
COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER OVERSPREADS THE AREA ON INCREASING
NORTHEAST WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. WE COULD SEE LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S IN MANY AREAS AS WINDS FALL
OFF WITH THE RIDGE AXIS MOVING OVERHEAD.
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...
COOL AND DRY FOR FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE HOLDING STRONG.
AS THE RIDGE SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY NIGHT...THE RETURN FLOW
WARM AIR ADVECTION COULD BRING IN SOME LATE NIGHT THUNDERSTORMS.
THIS IS A PRETTY SMALL CHANCE AT THIS POINT.
SATURDAY AND BEYOND...FORCAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MEDIUM.
THE GFS AND THE ECMWF ARE IN DISAGREEMENT WITH THE PATTERN THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF MAINTAINS THE RIDGE OVER
OUR AREA AND THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...RESULTING IN
DRY WEATHER. MEANWHILE THE GFS PUSHES A SFC BOUNDARY FARTHER
EAST...ACTING AS A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE SAME
PERIOD. A BLEND WOULD KEEP ANY RISK FOR STORMS MAINLY OVER OUR FAR
WESTERN CWA...AND THOSE CHANCES LOOK SMALL.
AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...IFR TO MVFR STRATUS HAS FORMED OVER SRN WI AND
SWWD INTO ERN IA. THIS STRATUS WILL LIKELY NOT DISSIPATE UNTIL MID
TO LATE MORNING FOR KMSN. A MUCH LESSER TIME PERIOD OF STRATUS IS
EXPECTED OVER THE SE WI TAF SITES. THE STRATUS SHOULD LIFT INTO
SCT-BKN CUMULUS CONGESTUS OF 4-5 KFT FOR THE AFTERNOON. A WEAK WIND
SHIFT LINE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT WINDS FROM SLY TO WLY TODAY. THERE
IS A CHANCE OF TSTORMS MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE WINDS SHIFT.
DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE ON THE WLY WINDS FOR TNT BUT LOW PRESSURE OVER
IA WILL BRING GOOD CHANCES OF RAIN TO FAR SRN WI INCLUDING KENW
TOWARD SUNRISE WED AM. AREAS OF LIGHT FOG COULD DEVELOP LATE TNT
BEFORE THE CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA.
WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH LOW CIGS AND VSBYS IS THEN EXPECTED ON WED.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...GEHRING
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...DAVIS
000
FXUS63 KMKX 211037 AAA
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
537 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
UPDATE TO AVIATION SECTION
.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM
AREAS OF STRATUS WILL PREVAIL EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SOME CLEARING
BY MID TO LATE MORNING. THIS WILL AID DAYTIME HEATING AND
INSTABILITY FOR LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. VARIOUS MODEL
SOUNDINGS VARY WITH EXPECTED CAPE VALUES FROM VERY LITTLE UP TO 1000
J/KG. THIS HAS TO DO WITH DIFFERENCES IN MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
DEWPOINTS. WILL COUNT ON MARGINAL CAPE PERHAPS UP TO 500 J/KG.
TRIGGERS FOR CONVECTION TODAY ARE WEAK WITH A COUPLE WEAK VORTICITY
MAXIMUMS TO SWING NWD IN THE SLY FLOW ALOFT OF THE UPPER LOW. A WEAK
SFC TROUGH MAY ALSO BECOME PRESENT AS SLY WINDS TURN MORE WLY. WILL
GO WITH CHANCES OF TSTORMS FROM LATE AM THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LOW
PROBABILITIES OF SEVERE WX WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN MDT DEEP LAYER
SHEAR AND MID LEVEL DRY AIR.
THE UPPER LOW WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO MOVE SEWD INTO WRN IA BY 12Z
WED. THE FORWARD TILT UPPER TROUGH WILL BECOME MORE NEGATIVE TILT
WITH SATURATION AND RAIN POSSIBLE IN FAR SE WI BY 12Z.
.WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
THE STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FINALLY SLIDES INTO THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY AND PASSES OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS IMPRESSIVE
AND RATHER SUSTAINED Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
DEEP MOISTURE AVAILABLE. THIS LOOKS LIKE OUR BEST CHANCE FOR A
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL SO WILL JUST CARRY A
CHANCE FOR STORMS. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
WINDS ALSO TURN ONSHORE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...SO AREAS CLOSE TO
THE LAKE WILL COOL OFF QUITE A BIT.
.THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.
WILL LINGER A CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY
MORNING AS THE REMNANTS OF THE UPPER LOW PULL AWAY. THEN MUCH
COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER OVERSPREADS THE AREA ON INCREASING
NORTHEAST WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. WE COULD SEE LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S IN MANY AREAS AS WINDS FALL
OFF WITH THE RIDGE AXIS MOVING OVERHEAD.
.FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...
COOL AND DRY FOR FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE HOLDING STRONG.
AS THE RIDGE SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY NIGHT...THE RETURN FLOW
WARM AIR ADVECTION COULD BRING IN SOME LATE NIGHT THUNDERSTORMS.
THIS IS A PRETTY SMALL CHANCE AT THIS POINT.
.SATURDAY AND BEYOND...FORCAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MEDIUM.
THE GFS AND THE ECMWF ARE IN DISAGREEMENT WITH THE PATTERN THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF MAINTAINS THE RIDGE OVER
OUR AREA AND THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...RESULTING IN
DRY WEATHER. MEANWHILE THE GFS PUSHES A SFC BOUNDARY FARTHER
EAST...ACTING AS A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE SAME
PERIOD. A BLEND WOULD KEEP ANY RISK FOR STORMS MAINLY OVER OUR FAR
WESTERN CWA...AND THOSE CHANCES LOOK SMALL.
&&
.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...IFR TO MVFR STRATUS HAS FORMED OVER SRN WI AND
SWWD INTO ERN IA. THIS STRATUS WILL LIKELY NOT DISSIPATE UNTIL MID
TO LATE MORNING FOR KMSN. A MUCH LESSER TIME PERIOD OF STRATUS IS
EXPECTED OVER THE SE WI TAF SITES. THE STRATUS SHOULD LIFT INTO
SCT-BKN CUMULUS CONGESTUS OF 4-5 KFT FOR THE AFTERNOON. A WEAK WIND
SHIFT LINE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT WINDS FROM SLY TO WLY TODAY. THERE
IS A CHANCE OF TSTORMS MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE WINDS SHIFT.
DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE ON THE WLY WINDS FOR TNT BUT LOW PRESSURE OVER
IA WILL BRING GOOD CHANCES OF RAIN TO FAR SRN WI INCLUDING KENW
TOWARD SUNRISE WED AM. AREAS OF LIGHT FOG COULD DEVELOP LATE TNT
BEFORE THE CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA.
WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH LOW CIGS AND VSBYS IS THEN EXPECTED ON WED.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...GEHRING
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...DAVIS
000
FXUS63 KMKX 210902 AAA
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
402 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM
A CLEARING TREND WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING WHICH WILL AID DAYTIME
HEATING AND INSTABILITY FOR LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. VARIOUS
MODEL SOUNDINGS VARY WITH EXPECTED CAPE VALUES FROM VERY LITTLE UP
TO 1000 J/KG. THIS HAS TO DO WITH DIFFERENCES IN MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND DEWPOINTS. WILL COUNT ON MARGINAL CAPE PERHAPS UP TO 500
J/KG. TRIGGERS FOR CONVECTION TODAY ARE WEAK WITH A COUPLE WEAK
VORTICITY MAXIMUMS TO SWING NWD IN THE SLY FLOW ALOFT OF THE UPPER
LOW. A WEAK SFC TROUGH MAY ALSO BECOME PRESENT AS SLY WINDS TURN
MORE WLY. WILL GO WITH CHANCES OF TSTORMS FROM LATE AM THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. LOW PROBABILITIES OF SEVERE WX WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN MDT
DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MID LEVEL DRY AIR.
THE UPPER LOW WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO MOVE SEWD INTO WRN IA BY 12Z
WED. THE FORWARD TILT UPPER TROUGH WILL BECOME MORE NEGATIVE TILT
WITH SATURATION AND RAIN POSSIBLE IN FAR SE WI BY 12Z.
.WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
THE STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FINALLY SLIDES INTO THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY AND PASSES OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS IMPRESSIVE
AND RATHER SUSTAINED Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
DEEP MOISTURE AVAILABLE. THIS LOOKS LIKE OUR BEST CHANCE FOR A
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL SO WILL JUST CARRY A
CHANCE FOR STORMS. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
WINDS ALSO TURN ONSHORE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...SO AREAS CLOSE TO
THE LAKE WILL COOL OFF QUITE A BIT.
.THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.
WILL LINGER A CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY
MORNING AS THE REMNANTS OF THE UPPER LOW PULL AWAY. THEN MUCH
COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER OVERSPREADS THE AREA ON INCREASING
NORTHEAST WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. WE COULD SEE LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S IN MANY AREAS AS WINDS FALL
OFF WITH THE RIDGE AXIS MOVING OVERHEAD.
.FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...
COOL AND DRY FOR FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE HOLDING STRONG.
AS THE RIDGE SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY NIGHT...THE RETURN FLOW
WARM AIR ADVECTION COULD BRING IN SOME LATE NIGHT THUNDERSTORMS.
THIS IS A PRETTY SMALL CHANCE AT THIS POINT.
.SATURDAY AND BEYOND...FORCAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MEDIUM.
THE GFS AND THE ECMWF ARE IN DISAGREEMENT WITH THE PATTERN THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF MAINTAINS THE RIDGE OVER
OUR AREA AND THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...RESULTING IN
DRY WEATHER. MEANWHILE THE GFS PUSHES A SFC BOUNDARY FARTHER
EAST...ACTING AS A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE SAME
PERIOD. A BLEND WOULD KEEP ANY RISK FOR STORMS MAINLY OVER OUR FAR
WESTERN CWA...AND THOSE CHANCES LOOK SMALL.
&&
.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...ISOLD IFR TO MVFR STRATUS AND VSBYS WILL
PRESENT OVER SRN WI EARLY THIS AM BUT PREVAILING CONDITIONS WILL BE
VFR. A WEAK WIND SHIFT LINE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT WINDS FROM SLY TO
WLY TODAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF TSTORMS MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
WINDS SHIFT. SCT-BKN CUMULUS AROUND 5 KFT IS EXPECTED FROM LATE
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE ON THE WLY
WINDS FOR TNT BUT LOW PRESSURE OVER IA WILL BRING GOOD CHANCES OF
RAIN TO FAR SRN WI INCLUDING KENW TOWARD SUNRISE WED AM. AREAS OF
LIGHT FOG COULD DEVELOP LATE TNT BEFORE THE CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES
MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA. WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH LOW CIGS AND VSBYS IS
THEN EXPECTED ON WED.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...GEHRING
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...DAVIS
000
FXUS63 KMKX 210835
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
335 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM
A CLEARING TREND WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING WHICH WILL AID DAYTIME
HEATING AND INSTABILITY FOR LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. VARIOUS
MODEL SOUNDINGS VARY WITH EXPECTED CAPE VALUES FROM VERY LITTLE UP
TO 1000 J/KG. THIS HAS TO DO WITH DIFFERENCES IN MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND DEWPOINTS. WILL COUNT ON MARGINAL CAPE PERHAPS UP TO 500
J/KG. TRIGGERS FOR CONVECTION TODAY ARE WEAK WITH A COUPLE WEAK
VORTICITY MAXIMUMS TO SWING NWD IN THE SLY FLOW ALOFT OF THE UPPER
LOW. A WEAK SFC TROUGH MAY ALSO BECOME PRESENT AS SLY WINDS TURN
MORE WLY. WILL GO WITH CHANCES OF TSTORMS FROM LATE AM THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. LOW PROBABILITIES OF SEVERE WX WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN MDT
DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MID LEVEL DRY AIR.
THE UPPER LOW WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO MOVE SEWD INTO WRN IA BY 12Z
WED. THE FORWARD TILT UPPER TROUGH WILL BECOME MORE NEGATIVE TILT
WITH SATURATION AND RAIN POSSIBLE IN FAR SE WI BY 12Z.
.WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
THE STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FINALLY SLIDES INTO THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY AND PASSES OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS IMPRESSIVE
AND RATHER SUSTAINED Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
DEEP MOISTURE AVAILABLE. THIS LOOKS LIKE OUR BEST CHANCE FOR A
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL SO WILL JUST CARRY A
CHANCE FOR STORMS. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
WINDS ALSO TURN ONSHORE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...SO AREAS CLOSE TO
THE LAKE WILL COOL OFF QUITE A BIT.
.THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.
WILL LINGER A CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY
MORNING AS THE REMNANTS OF THE UPPER LOW PULL AWAY. THEN MUCH
COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER OVERSPREADS THE AREA ON INCREASING
NORTHEAST WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. WE COULD SEE LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S IN MANY AREAS AS WINDS FALL
OFF WITH THE RIDGE AXIS MOVING OVERHEAD.
.FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...
COOL AND DRY FOR FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE HOLDING STRONG.
AS THE RIDGE SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY NIGHT...THE RETURN FLOW
WARM AIR ADVECTION COULD BRING IN SOME LATE NIGHT THUNDERSTORMS.
THIS IS A PRETTY SMALL CHANCE AT THIS POINT.
.SATURDAY AND BEYOND...FORCAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MEDIUM.
THE GFS AND THE ECMWF ARE IN DISAGREEMENT WITH THE PATTERN THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF MAINTAINS THE RIDGE OVER
OUR AREA AND THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...RESULTING IN
DRY WEATHER. MEANWHILE THE GFS PUSHES A SFC BOUNDARY FARTHER
EAST...ACTING AS A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE SAME
PERIOD. A BLEND WOULD KEEP ANY RISK FOR STORMS MAINLY OVER OUR FAR
WESTERN CWA...AND THOSE CHANCES LOOK SMALL.
&&
.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...UPDATED SHORTLY.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...GEHRING
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...DAVIS
000
FXUS63 KMKX 210149
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
849 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
.UPDATE...
LATEST RUC SHOWS A 105 KNOT 250 MB JET MAX OVER EASTERN IOWA PUSHING
NORTH AND INCREASING TO 110 KNOTS AS IT REACHES CENTRAL WISCONSIN
BY MIDNIGHT. THIS INCREASES THE UPPER DIVERGENCE. THE 50 KNOT 850
MB WIND MAX ALSO LIFTS NORTHEAST MAINLY TOWARD CHICAGO. THIS
INCREASES THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. AS A RESULT EXPECT
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO INCREASE CONSIDERABLY. THE LIMITING FACTOR
IS THE INSTABILITY. ZERO TO 1 KM CAP IS MODEST AT BEST...BUT WITH
THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET...INSTABILITY MAY BE MORE THAN MODELS
INDICATE...SINCE THE RAP IS SATURATING THE SOUNDINGS TO MOIST ADIABATIC.
GIVEN THE INITIAL MID/LOW LEVEL DRIER AIR DOWNDRAFT CAPE IS NEAR
1000 J/KG. THEREFORE DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL WILL EXIST INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS.
&&
.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...
EXPECT A BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT. SOME IFR IN CIGS/VSBYS...ALONG WITH
STRONG WIND POTENTIAL. SOME BRIEF MVFR AROUND SUNRISE...THEN
MAINLY VFR TUESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013/
VERY SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE...LOW
TO MEDIUM.
BIGGEST CONCERN INTO TONIGHT IS TIMING AND STRENGTH OF EXPECTED
THUNDERSTORMS. SPC IS MAINTAINING A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LATEST NAM AND RAP SOUNDINGS AGREE THAT
THE ENVIRONMENT STILL LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.
WITH THE CONTINUED SUNSHINE...SHOULD SEE SFC BASED CAPE VALUES GET
IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING.
ADDITIONALLY...PLENTY OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR...GENERALLY 35-45 KT.
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AS WELL...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
INCREASING TO AROUND 1.25 INCHES THIS EVENING...ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMALS.
WITH A DECENT ENVIRONMENTAL SETUP...WILL JUST BE WAITING FOR THE
TRIGGER. TIMING OF UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE ALONG WITH LATEST HRRR AND
LOCAL WRF4L MODEL INDICATE THAT CONVECTION MAY HOLD OFF ACROSS
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN UNTIL THE MID-EVENING HOURS. ONE THING TO NOTE IS
THAT THE LAST FEW RUNS OF MESOSCALE MODELS HAVE BEEN ALL OVER THE
PLACE WITH CONVECTIVE SOLUTIONS FOR THIS EVENING...SO NOT A TON OF
CERTAINTY AT THIS POINT.
LOW PRESSURE REMAINING TO THE WEST WILL KEEP SOUTHERN WISCONSIN IN A
WARM AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT THROUGH TUESDAY...THUS CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE. SIMILAR TO TODAY...NOT A LOT OF
CERTAINTY IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF DEVELOPMENT. ANY STORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP TOMORROW WILL HAVE THE CHANCE TO BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE...WITH SPC MAINTAINING A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS.
SHORT TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE
MEDIUM.
CLOSED LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO MOVE AS IT OPENS AND BECOMES PHASED
WITH TROUGH DROPPING TOWARD THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AS IT ROTATES
AROUND POLAR VORTEX JUST EAST OF HUDSON BAY.
ONE MORE ROUND OF CONVECTION EXPECTED WITH 500 MB SHORT WAVE TUE
NGT/WED AM WITH LAYER Q-VECTOR MAXIMA AND FRONTOGENETIC FORCING
INDICATING BEST CHANCES MAINLY AFTER 06Z WED...WITH MAX
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING OVER THE CWA AT 12Z WED. FORCING LIFTS
THRU...STALLS AND THEN DROPS BACK ACROSS REGION AS SYSTEM OPENS AND
MOVES RIGHT ACROSS THE STATE...WITH MID-LEVEL TROF AXIS SOUTH OF CWA
AROUND 18Z THURSDAY. THE SLIGHTLY DIFFERING SOLUTIONS TO TIMING AND
STRUCTURE AMONG THE MODELS LEADS TO VARIOUS AMOUNTS OF QPF. WENT
WITH BLENDED QPF AMOUNTS WITH A LEAN TOWARD THE HIGHER NUMBERS...BUT
IF CONVERGENCE BAND SETS UP RIGHT OVER THE REGION...THEN AMOUNTS
COULD GO EVEN HIGHER AND AREAL/RIVER FLOODING COULD COME INTO PLAY.
NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO RE-ISSUE AN EFS AT THIS TIME BUT WILL NEED
TO BE WATCHED.
TEMPERATURES DO NOT FALL MUCH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CLOUDS AND THE AREA
STAYING ROUGHLY TO THE WARM SIDE OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES THROUGH SO
FOLLOWED LOWS CLOSER TO THE WARMER GUIDANCE NUMBERS. HIGHS WEDNESDAY
WILL BE AROUND MID DAY...THEN COOL WITH WINDS TURNING NORTHERLY AS
SURFACE LOW/TROUGH SLIDES BY...THOUGH LINGERING TROUGHINESS WILL
PREVENT MUCH OF A GRADIENT UNTIL CLOSER TO THURSDAY MORNING. HIGHS
THURSDAY WILL ONLY GET TO THE MID 60S WELL INLAND...WITH 50S ALONG
THE LAKE.
LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE
AMOUNT OF COOLING VARIES WITH DEPTH OF EVOLVING 500 MB TROUGH OVER
EASTERN CANADA. OMEGA BLOCK SETS UP WITH AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE OVER
THE PLAINS BETWEEN EASTERN CANADA VORTEX AND CLOSED LOW OVER THE
PACIFIC NW...WITH THE FORECAST AREA REMAINING UNDER THE NW FLOW OF
THE EASTERN TROUGH THROUGH SATURDAY. LESS AMPLIFIED ECMWF ALLOWS
WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE UNDERCUTTING
THE RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH CROSSING THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. MORE DOMINANT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WITH
MORE AMPLIFIED GFS/GEM HOLDS PCPN CHANCES OFF UNTIL SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/SATURDAY NIGHT ON THE GEM...AND NOT UNTIL SUNDAY WITH THE
GFS. WHILE THE CONSENSUS BLEND HAS PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND DUE TO THE TIMING SPREAD IN THE MODELS...THERE WILL
BE DRY PERIODS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS
TRYING TO GET BACK INTO THE LOWER 70S MONDAY AWAY FROM THE LAKE.
AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY...THOUGH
LOWER CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS. BIG ISSUE THROUGH
TOMORROW REMAINS TIMING ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOOKS QUIET THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON...WITH LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGESTING DEVELOPMENT
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND INTO THE NIGHT. TOOK A STAB AT BEST CHANCE
FOR STORMS IN THE TAFS...THOUGH STILL HAD TO KEEP IT FAIRLY GENERAL
DUE TO A GOOD AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY. CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL CONTINUE
TUESDAY.
MARINE...
WILL LIKELY SEE GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS FROM NORTH POINT LIGHT SOUTHWARD
INTO EARLY EVENING...UNTIL DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING DECREASES. WILL
THUS KEEP THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GOING UNTIL 01Z. FARTHER
NORTH...COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS...BUT OVERALL GRADIENT IS
A BIT WEAKER. PLUS...WINDS CONTINUE TO HAVE AN ONSHORE COMPONENT AT
TIMES ACROSS THE NORTH...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT GUST POTENTIAL DUE TO
THE STABLE AIRMASS OVER THE LAKE.
WINDS WILL MAINLY BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH TUESDAY...SO OVERALL
FOG POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED. COULD SEE SOME FOG FOR A TIME IF
WINDS ARE SOUTHEAST LONGER THAN EXPECTED.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HENTZ
TONIGHT/TUESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...DDV
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...REM
000
FXUS63 KMKX 202031
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
331 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
.VERY SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE...LOW
TO MEDIUM.
BIGGEST CONCERN INTO TONIGHT IS TIMING AND STRENGTH OF EXPECTED
THUNDERSTORMS. SPC IS MAINTAINING A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LATEST NAM AND RAP SOUNDINGS AGREE THAT
THE ENVIRONMENT STILL LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.
WITH THE CONTINUED SUNSHINE...SHOULD SEE SFC BASED CAPE VALUES GET
IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING.
ADDITIONALLY...PLENTY OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR...GENERALLY 35-45 KT.
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AS WELL...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
INCREASING TO AROUND 1.25 INCHES THIS EVENING...ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMALS.
WITH A DECENT ENVIRONMENTAL SETUP...WILL JUST BE WAITING FOR THE
TRIGGER. TIMING OF UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE ALONG WITH LATEST HRRR AND
LOCAL WRF4L MODEL INDICATE THAT CONVECTION MAY HOLD OFF ACROSS
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN UNTIL THE MID-EVENING HOURS. ONE THING TO NOTE IS
THAT THE LAST FEW RUNS OF MESOSCALE MODELS HAVE BEEN ALL OVER THE
PLACE WITH CONVECTIVE SOLUTIONS FOR THIS EVENING...SO NOT A TON OF
CERTAINTY AT THIS POINT.
LOW PRESSURE REMAINING TO THE WEST WILL KEEP SOUTHERN WISCONSIN IN A
WARM AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT THROUGH TUESDAY...THUS CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE. SIMILAR TO TODAY...NOT A LOT OF
CERTAINTY IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF DEVELOPMENT. ANY STORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP TOMORROW WILL HAVE THE CHANCE TO BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE...WITH SPC MAINTAINING A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS.
.SHORT TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE
MEDIUM.
CLOSED LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO MOVE AS IT OPENS AND BECOMES PHASED
WITH TROUGH DROPPING TOWARD THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AS IT ROTATES
AROUND POLAR VORTEX JUST EAST OF HUDSON BAY.
ONE MORE ROUND OF CONVECTION EXPECTED WITH 500 MB SHORT WAVE TUE
NGT/WED AM WITH LAYER Q-VECTOR MAXIMA AND FRONTOGENETIC FORCING
INDICATING BEST CHANCES MAINLY AFTER 06Z WED...WITH MAX
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING OVER THE CWA AT 12Z WED. FORCING LIFTS
THRU...STALLS AND THEN DROPS BACK ACROSS REGION AS SYSTEM OPENS AND
MOVES RIGHT ACROSS THE STATE...WITH MID-LEVEL TROF AXIS SOUTH OF CWA
AROUND 18Z THURSDAY. THE SLIGHTLY DIFFERING SOLUTIONS TO TIMING AND
STRUCTURE AMONG THE MODELS LEADS TO VARIOUS AMOUNTS OF QPF. WENT
WITH BLENDED QPF AMOUNTS WITH A LEAN TOWARD THE HIGHER NUMBERS...BUT
IF CONVERGENCE BAND SETS UP RIGHT OVER THE REGION...THEN AMOUNTS
COULD GO EVEN HIGHER AND AREAL/RIVER FLOODING COULD COME INTO PLAY.
NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO RE-ISSUE AN EFS AT THIS TIME BUT WILL NEED
TO BE WATCHED.
TEMPERATURES DO NOT FALL MUCH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CLOUDS AND THE AREA
STAYING ROUGHLY TO THE WARM SIDE OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES THROUGH SO
FOLLOWED LOWS CLOSER TO THE WARMER GUIDANCE NUMBERS. HIGHS WEDNESDAY
WILL BE AROUND MID DAY...THEN COOL WITH WINDS TURNING NORTHERLY AS
SURFACE LOW/TROUGH SLIDES BY...THOUGH LINGERING TROUGHINESS WILL
PREVENT MUCH OF A GRADIENT UNTIL CLOSER TO THURSDAY MORNING. HIGHS
THURSDAY WILL ONLY GET TO THE MID 60S WELL INLAND...WITH 50S ALONG
THE LAKE.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE
AMOUNT OF COOLING VARIES WITH DEPTH OF EVOLVING 500 MB TROUGH OVER
EASTERN CANADA. OMEGA BLOCK SETS UP WITH AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE OVER
THE PLAINS BETWEEN EASTERN CANADA VORTEX AND CLOSED LOW OVER THE
PACIFIC NW...WITH THE FORECAST AREA REMAINING UNDER THE NW FLOW OF
THE EASTERN TROUGH THROUGH SATURDAY. LESS AMPLIFIED ECMWF ALLOWS
WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE UNDERCUTTING
THE RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH CROSSING THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. MORE DOMINANT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WITH
MORE AMPLIFIED GFS/GEM HOLDS PCPN CHANCES OFF UNTIL SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/SATURDAY NIGHT ON THE GEM...AND NOT UNTIL SUNDAY WITH THE
GFS. WHILE THE CONSENSUS BLEND HAS PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND DUE TO THE TIMING SPREAD IN THE MODELS...THERE WILL
BE DRY PERIODS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS
TRYING TO GET BACK INTO THE LOWER 70S MONDAY AWAY FROM THE LAKE.
&&
.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY...THOUGH
LOWER CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS. BIG ISSUE THROUGH
TOMORROW REMAINS TIMING ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOOKS QUIET THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON...WITH LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGESTING DEVELOPMENT
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND INTO THE NIGHT. TOOK A STAB AT BEST CHANCE
FOR STORMS IN THE TAFS...THOUGH STILL HAD TO KEEP IT FAIRLY GENERAL
DUE TO A GOOD AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY. CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL CONTINUE
TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
WILL LIKELY SEE GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS FROM NORTH POINT LIGHT SOUTHWARD
INTO EARLY EVENING...UNTIL DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING DECREASES. WILL
THUS KEEP THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GOING UNTIL 01Z. FARTHER
NORTH...COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS...BUT OVERALL GRADIENT IS
A BIT WEAKER. PLUS...WINDS CONTINUE TO HAVE AN ONSHORE COMPONENT AT
TIMES ACROSS THE NORTH...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT GUST POTENTIAL DUE TO
THE STABLE AIRMASS OVER THE LAKE.
WINDS WILL MAINLY BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH TUESDAY...SO OVERALL
FOG POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED. COULD SEE SOME FOG FOR A TIME IF
WINDS ARE SOUTHEAST LONGER THAN EXPECTED.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ645-646.
&&
$$
TONIGHT/TUESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...DDV
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...REM
| 
