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000
FXUS63 KMKX 180807
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
307 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.TODAY AND TONIGHT..FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

SHORT TERM MODELS AGREE WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY...THEN TO THE EAST TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL BRING
QUIET WEATHER. MAIN ISSUE WILL BE CLOUDS AND EFFECTS ON
TEMPERATURES. LOW CLOUD DECK OVER NORTHEAST TO CENTRAL WISCONSIN HAS
BEEN LINGERING AND MOVING SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHEAST SO FAR DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

THIS SEEMS TO BE FOLLOWING THE 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM TRACKING
EAST ACROSS THE REGION. THIS MAY MOVE INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA AND LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS. NOT SURE WHAT WILL OCCUR
WITH THIS DECK...SO KEPT ANY CLOUDS TO THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES FOR
NOW.

NEXT MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD TOWARD AND INTO
THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE AREA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. 700 MB
RELATIVE HUMIDITY FIELDS SHOW THIS CLOUD DECK FAIRLY WELL. FOR
NOW...KEPT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES GOING FOR THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT IN THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA. THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA ARE MORE QUESTIONABLE FOR THESE CLOUDS.

ONSHORE WINDS WILL KEEP AREAS NEAR THE LAKE MUCH COOLER THAN WELL
INLAND TODAY. 925MB TEMPERATURES SUGGEST MID TO UPPER 50S WELL
INLAND...WITH 40S LAKESIDE. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO
MID 30S.

.SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
BROAD ANTICYCLONIC 500 MILLIBAR FLOW SHIFTS A BIT TO THE EAST
WITH MORE OF A SOUTHWEST FLOW SETTING UP. LLJ INDUCED PRECIP STAYS
WELL NORTH. 850 WAA WILL BE UNDERWAY. SURFACE FLOW WILL BRING THAT
COOLER LAKE AIR INTO THE EAST. ESE WINDS EARLY TRANSITIONS MORE SE
IN THE AFTERNOON. 925 TEMPS WARM TO 10-13C WHICH TRANSLATES TO
HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S...INLAND. THE EAST WILL BE APPRECIABLY
COOLER WITH THE TRAJECTORIES COMING OFF THE LAKE.

.SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT ZONE SETS UP ACROSS CENTRAL WI...WITH THE
NORTHERN CWA HAVING THE BEST CHANCE OF SHRA. PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEAST MAY END UP BEING DRY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. THERE ARE
VARIOUS SOLUTIONS WITH RESPECT TO THE EXPECTED SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY
WITH THE GEM LOOKING THE STRONGEST ON THIS FEATURE. SOME UPPER
DIVERGENCE NOTED ASSOCIATED WITH RIGHT REAR QUAD OF UPPER LAKES
JET CORE.

.MONDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
STRONGER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER IN THE DAY
AND INTO THE EVENING. MEANWHILE SFC/850 LOWS DEVELOP AND BRING THE
FOCUS MORE INTO SRN WI.

.TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE FOR THE MOST PART. THE GFS IS MORE
AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING WAA/MOISTURE ADVECTION INDUCED PCPN LATER
IN THE DAY TO THE WESTERN CWA. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF HOLDS THINGS
OFF UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW
THE 00Z ECMWF IS QUICKER ON BRINGING THE 850 JET AXIS AND LOW
LEVEL TROUGH TOWARDS SRN WI BY DAYS END. WILL MAINTAIN THUNDER IN
THE GRIDS AS BETTER INSTABILITY LIKELY BY THEN. IN FACT CIPS
ANALOGS EXTENDS SOME 50 PCT PROBS INTO SRN WI FOR A SVR REPORT.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT
ACROSS TAF SITES. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION TODAY...THEN
EAST TONIGHT...WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER. LIGHT NORTH WINDS WILL BECOME
NORTHEAST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON...THEN EAST TO SOUTHEAST TONIGHT.

MVFR CLOUD DECK SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF TAF SITES THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD MOVE INTO MADISON
THIS AFTERNOON AND LINGER TONIGHT. THE EASTERN SITES SHOULD REMAIN
MORE SCATTERED WITH THESE CLOUDS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...WOOD
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...COLLAR





000
FXUS63 KMKX 180439
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1139 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.UPDATE...

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...SCT-BKN040 STRATOCUMULUS STILL LINGERING IN
SE WI BUT SHOULD EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE TOWARD 09-10Z FRI. OTHERWISE
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH NLY
WINDS BECOMING ELY FOR FRI NT.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

TONIGHT AND FRIDAY..FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

BASED ON MODEL 925 MB RH...IT LOOKS LIKE CLOUDS MAY HANG ON INTO THE
EVENING AND EARLY NIGHT LONGER THAN ORIGINALLY EXPECTED. THESE
CLOUDS WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING TOO FAST...THOUGH LESS
CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS BY MORNING WILL STILL RESULT IN LOWS IN THE
LOW TO MID 30S.

SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY ON FRIDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVERHEAD. WARMEST TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE IN THE SOUTHWEST
TOMORROW...WITH HIGHS INTO THE MID 50S EXPECTED. IT WILL BE COOLER
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...AND ESPECIALLY ALL AREAS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN
UNDER ONSHORE WINDS.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

THE HIGH WILL SLIDE EAST FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A WEAKENING TROF/COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD
BE A DRY PERIOD WITH CHILLY TEMPS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT UNDER A
DRY AIRMASS AND LIGHT WINDS. WARM ADVECTION REALLY GETS GOING ON
SATURDAY AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
TROF. UNFORTUNATELY...THE FAR EAST NEAR THE LAKE WILL PROBABLY SEE
A SOUTHEAST COMPONENT TO THE WIND HANG IN THRU THE DAY...KEEPING
IT MUCH COOLER NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN...ESPECIALLY UP AROUND THE
SHEBOYGAN AREA. TEMPS WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S
SOUTHWEST OF MADISON...TO THE UPPER 40S IN SHEBOYGAN.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

THE SFC TROF/COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO DRIFT SOUTH THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA...BUT THE NEW MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARD THE TROF
GETTING STUCK OVER THE NRN FCST AREA AND NOT PENETRATING MUCH
FARTHER SOUTH. THE TROF EXTENDS FROM A PARENT LOW THAT MOVES
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...INTO ANOTHER DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AS A RESULT...THERE ISN/T MUCH
OF A SOUTHERN PUSH TO THE FRONT. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE BULK OF ANY
PRECIP LOCATED NORTH OF MILWAUKEE AND MADISON. THE LOW LEVEL
THERMAL RIDGE IS THEREFORE MUCH STRONGER ACROSS THE AREA THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT SO TEMPS HAVE BEEN RAISED. WE SHOULD SEE
OFFSHORE WINDS ALONG THE LAKE ON SUNDAY...EXCEPT MAYBE THE
SHEBOYGAN...SO MUCH OF THE CWA SHOULD ENJOY A WARM DAY ON SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE GFS AND THE ECMWF
DIFFER ON STRENGTH OF THE SFC LOW...BUT THEY BOTH SHOW A DECENT
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE PUSHING THROUGH. SO PRECIP CHANCES ARE PRETTY
HIGH FOR THIS PERIOD. SOUNDINGS STILL LOOK PRETTY STABLE WITH
RESPECT TO CONVECTION...SO NO THUNDER MENTIONED. TEMPS WILL BE
TRICKY ON MONDAY WITH PRECIP/CLOUDS AND AN ONSHORE FLOW KICKING IN
BY AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING LOW.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP THINGS DRY FOR TUESDAY WITH HIGHS AWAY
FROM THE LAKE HITTING THE MID 60S. A DECENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP
LAKE AREA QUITE CHILLY.

STRONG LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE AREA LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. SOME LEADING WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATER
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...BUT IT WILL BE STRUGGLE AGAINST
SOME LOW LEVEL DRY AIR. THE MOISTURE ADVECTS IN MUCH BETTER ON
THURSDAY WITH PRECIP CHANCES INCREASING.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

A FEW LOCATIONS ARE STILL HOLDING ONTO MVFR CIGS...BUT CIGS ARE
GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE VFR ACROSS THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON. VFR
CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY HANG ON INTO THE EVENING...SLOWLY DECREASING
LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES. PARTLY
CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY.

MARINE...

WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE INTO THIS EVENING...WITH FAIRLY QUIET
WEATHER EXPECTED THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEHRING
TONIGHT/FRIDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...DDV
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...DAVIS





000
FXUS63 KMKX 172018
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
318 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.TONIGHT AND FRIDAY..FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

BASED ON MODEL 925 MB RH...IT LOOKS LIKE CLOUDS MAY HANG ON INTO THE
EVENING AND EARLY NIGHT LONGER THAN ORIGINALLY EXPECTED. THESE
CLOUDS WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING TOO FAST...THOUGH LESS
CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS BY MORNING WILL STILL RESULT IN LOWS IN THE
LOW TO MID 30S.

SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY ON FRIDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVERHEAD. WARMEST TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE IN THE SOUTHWEST
TOMORROW...WITH HIGHS INTO THE MID 50S EXPECTED. IT WILL BE COOLER
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...AND ESPECIALLY ALL AREAS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN
UNDER ONSHORE WINDS.

.FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

THE HIGH WILL SLIDE EAST FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A WEAKENING TROF/COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD
BE A DRY PERIOD WITH CHILLY TEMPS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT UNDER A
DRY AIRMASS AND LIGHT WINDS. WARM ADVECTION REALLY GETS GOING ON
SATURDAY AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
TROF. UNFORTUNATELY...THE FAR EAST NEAR THE LAKE WILL PROBABLY SEE
A SOUTHEAST COMPONENT TO THE WIND HANG IN THRU THE DAY...KEEPING
IT MUCH COOLER NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN...ESPECIALLY UP AROUND THE
SHEBOYGAN AREA. TEMPS WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S
SOUTHWEST OF MADISON...TO THE UPPER 40S IN SHEBOYGAN.

.SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

THE SFC TROF/COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO DRIFT SOUTH THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA...BUT THE NEW MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARD THE TROF
GETTING STUCK OVER THE NRN FCST AREA AND NOT PENETRATING MUCH
FARTHER SOUTH. THE TROF EXTENDS FROM A PARENT LOW THAT MOVES
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...INTO ANOTHER DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AS A RESULT...THERE ISN/T MUCH
OF A SOUTHERN PUSH TO THE FRONT. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE BULK OF ANY
PRECIP LOCATED NORTH OF MILWAUKEE AND MADISON. THE LOW LEVEL
THERMAL RIDGE IS THEREFORE MUCH STRONGER ACROSS THE AREA THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT SO TEMPS HAVE BEEN RAISED. WE SHOULD SEE
OFFSHORE WINDS ALONG THE LAKE ON SUNDAY...EXCEPT MAYBE THE
SHEBOYGAN...SO MUCH OF THE CWA SHOULD ENJOY A WARM DAY ON SUNDAY.

.SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE GFS AND THE ECMWF
DIFFER ON STRENGTH OF THE SFC LOW...BUT THEY BOTH SHOW A DECENT
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE PUSHING THROUGH. SO PRECIP CHANCES ARE PRETTY
HIGH FOR THIS PERIOD. SOUNDINGS STILL LOOK PRETTY STABLE WITH
RESPECT TO CONVECTION...SO NO THUNDER MENTIONED. TEMPS WILL BE
TRICKY ON MONDAY WITH PRECIP/CLOUDS AND AN ONSHORE FLOW KICKING IN
BY AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING LOW.

.TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP THINGS DRY FOR TUESDAY WITH HIGHS AWAY
FROM THE LAKE HITTING THE MID 60S. A DECENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP
LAKE AREA QUITE CHILLY.

STRONG LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE AREA LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. SOME LEADING WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATER
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...BUT IT WILL BE STRUGGLE AGAINST
SOME LOW LEVEL DRY AIR. THE MOISTURE ADVECTS IN MUCH BETTER ON
THURSDAY WITH PRECIP CHANCES INCREASING.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

A FEW LOCATIONS ARE STILL HOLDING ONTO MVFR CIGS...BUT CIGS ARE
GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE VFR ACROSS THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON. VFR
CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY HANG ON INTO THE EVENING...SLOWLY DECREASING
LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES. PARTLY
CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE INTO THIS EVENING...WITH FAIRLY QUIET
WEATHER EXPECTED THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TONIGHT/FRIDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...DDV
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...DAVIS





000
FXUS63 KMKX 171450 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
950 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.UPDATE...SKIES ARE CURRENTLY OVERCAST EXCEPT IN THE FAR
SOUTHEAST. BASED ON LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS...IT SEEMS THAT
INCREASED MIXING THIS MORNING SHOULD EVENTUALLY LEAD TO BROKEN
CLOUD COVER MOST PLACES. THE SOUTHWEST WINDS ALONG WITH A BIT OF
SUN POKING THROUGH AT TIMES SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO HIT 50 MOST
PLACES...POSSIBLY MID 50S FAR SOUTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...SKIES ARE CURRENTLY OVERCAST MVFR MOST
PLACES EXCEPT IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST. BASED ON LATEST MODEL
SOUNDINGS...IT SEEMS THAT INCREASED MIXING THIS MORNING SHOULD
EVENTUALLY LEAD TO BROKEN VFR BY AFTERNOON. CLOUDS SHOULD THEN
DECREASE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
APPROACHES...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED
FRIDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA...MAINLY IN THE NORTH AND WEST. DRY AIR IN THE LOWEST
5000 FEET OR SO WAS KEEPING A MAJORITY OF THE SHOWERS FROM REACHING
THE GROUND. ONLY SAW A FEW TRACE AMOUNTS TO THE WEST AND NORTH.

STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION...850 MB LOW LEVEL JET NOSE AND
APPROACHING 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH WERE HELPING THESE SHOWERS
ALONG. BEST UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE
AREA...AND WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST INTO THE MORNING.
THUS...EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST BY 12Z
THURSDAY.

EXPECT THE CLOUD COVER TO BECOME BROKEN AND POSSIBLY SCATTERED AS
THE DAY GOES ON...WITH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA WITHIN MODEST
COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE. WINDS WILL SHIFT
FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST IN THE
AFTERNOON...AFTER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. HIGHS SHOULD
STILL REACH THE 50 TO 55 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS THE AREA...PER 925 MB
TEMPERATURES AND PARTIAL SUNSHINE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT...BRINGING QUIET WEATHER. SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY
LINGER...THOUGH COULD STILL END UP BEING LESS CLOUDY THAN THE
CURRENT FORECAST PER AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS. KEPT PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES FOR NOW. LOWS SHOULD DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S...BUT
COULD GET COLDER IF CLOUDS MOVE OUT.

FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

THE WEATHER WILL BE QUIET WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. EXPECTING HIGH CLOUDS TO INCREASE OVER SOUTHERN WI THROUGH
THE DAY AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES. TEMPERATURES
INLAND FROM THE LAKE ARE NOW EXPECTED IN THE 50S...WARMER THAN
PREVIOUS FORECASTS. ANY WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIP WILL BE WELL TO
OUR NORTHWEST SO PLAN ON A DRY FRIDAY NIGHT AS WELL.

LONG TERM...

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

THE NEXT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
ON SATURDAY. WARM FRONTAL PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE MKX FORECAST AREA. IN SOUTHERN
WI...WINDS WILL BE BREEZY OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AND
TEMPERATURES WELL INLAND FROM THE LAKE ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID
TO UPPER 60S.

ANOTHER MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST OVER THE WEEKEND. THE SURFACE TROUGH WITH THAT
NORTHERN SHORTWAVE WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT/PHASE WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH FROM THE SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE AND DRAW MOISTURE FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO SOUTHERN WI SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEKEND. A BAND OF DEEP AND SLOPED FRONTOGENESIS WILL SLOWLY
SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS WI.

THE GFS...ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
ABOUT TIMING OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH SOUTHERN WI UNTIL
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE ON THE SLOWER SIDE AND THERE
IS A GENERAL SLOWING TREND AMONGST ALL THE MODELS. THERE ARE STILL
DIFFERENCES ABOUT PRECIP AMOUNTS...BUT I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE AROUND A HALF INCH...GIVE OR TAKE.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE OVER CENTRAL WI ON SUNDAY
MORNING...WITH LOWEST CHANCES OVER SOUTHEAST WI. BY SUNDAY
NIGHT...THAT BETTER CHANCE SHOULD SLIP INTO SOUTHERN WI...ALTHOUGH
THIS IS THE TIME THAT THE GFS BECOMES FASTER THAN THE ECMWF.
DEPENDING ON HOW LONG CLOUDS AND PRECIP CAN HOLD OFF FOR
SUNDAY...PARTS OF FAR SOUTHERN WI COULD APPROACH 70 FOR HIGHS. THERE
IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO PRECIP CHANCES
AND TEMPERATURE.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE HANGING ONTO PRECIP CHANCES WELL INTO MONDAY
NOW...WITH DECREASING CHANCES IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR EARLY IN THE DAY AND GRADUALLY DROP.
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS MONDAY NIGHT WILL LEAD TO LOWS IN THE
LOWER 40S OR EVEN COLDER.

A HIGH-AMPLITUDE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL SET UP OVER THE CENTER OF THE
COUNTRY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT MID LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL LEAD TO SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTHERN WI WED AND WED NIGHT.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF TAF SITES EARLY THIS
MORNING. KEPT LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IN TAFS UNTIL 12Z TO 13Z
THURSDAY...AS 45 KNOT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET AT 2000 FEET ABOVE
GROUND LEVEL LINGERS ACROSS THE AREA.

SURFACE WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS...AS THEY VEER FROM SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST. WINDS WILL WEAKEN AS
THEY VEER WEST BEHIND COLD FRONT BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND
NORTHWEST TONIGHT.

VFR CEILINGS WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LINGER INTO THE
MORNING...WITH SOME SCATTERING OUT POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. LOW
CLOUDS WITH MVFR/IFR CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF MADISON THIS
MORNING. HIGH CLOUDS MAY THIN OUT TONIGHT...LEFT SCATTERED WORDING
FOR NOW.

MARINE...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN UNTIL 18Z THURSDAY. GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS TO 30 KNOTS WILL
VEER SOUTH THIS MORNING...AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN BELOW 22 KNOTS BY 18Z
THURSDAY. HIGH WAVES WILL SUBSIDE BY 18Z AS WELL.

HYDROLOGY...

SEVERAL AREA RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE FLOOD AND BANKFULL
STAGES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MOST OF THE FAST RESPONDING AND
SMALLER RIVERS IN THE AREA HAVE CRESTED OR ARE CRESTING...AND ARE
FORECAST TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

THE SLOWER RESPONDING RIVERS...LIKE THE ROCK RIVER AND FOX RIVER
NEAR BERLIN...WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE FOR SEVERAL DAYS BEFORE
CRESTING. IT LOOKS LIKE THE ROCK RIVER LOCATIONS WILL CREST BELOW
FLOOD STAGE. FOR THE RIVERS ABOVE FLOOD STAGE...MOST OF THE CRESTS
HAVE BEEN OR WILL BE IN THE MINOR FLOOD STAGE AREA.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DDV
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...WOOD
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MRC





000
FXUS63 KMKX 170831
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
331 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA...MAINLY IN THE NORTH AND WEST. DRY AIR IN THE LOWEST
5000 FEET OR SO WAS KEEPING A MAJORITY OF THE SHOWERS FROM REACHING
THE GROUND. ONLY SAW A FEW TRACE AMOUNTS TO THE WEST AND NORTH.

STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION...850 MB LOW LEVEL JET NOSE AND
APPROACHING 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH WERE HELPING THESE SHOWERS
ALONG. BEST UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE
AREA...AND WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST INTO THE MORNING.
THUS...EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST BY 12Z
THURSDAY.

EXPECT THE CLOUD COVER TO BECOME BROKEN AND POSSIBLY SCATTERED AS
THE DAY GOES ON...WITH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA WITHIN MODEST
COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE. WINDS WILL SHIFT
FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST IN THE
AFTERNOON...AFTER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. HIGHS SHOULD
STILL REACH THE 50 TO 55 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS THE AREA...PER 925 MB
TEMPERATURES AND PARTIAL SUNSHINE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT...BRINGING QUIET WEATHER. SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY
LINGER...THOUGH COULD STILL END UP BEING LESS CLOUDY THAN THE
CURRENT FORECAST PER AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS. KEPT PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES FOR NOW. LOWS SHOULD DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S...BUT
COULD GET COLDER IF CLOUDS MOVE OUT.

FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

THE WEATHER WILL BE QUIET WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. EXPECTING HIGH CLOUDS TO INCREASE OVER SOUTHERN WI THROUGH
THE DAY AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES. TEMPERATURES
INLAND FROM THE LAKE ARE NOW EXPECTED IN THE 50S...WARMER THAN
PREVIOUS FORECASTS. ANY WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIP WILL BE WELL TO
OUR NORTHWEST SO PLAN ON A DRY FRIDAY NIGHT AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

THE NEXT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
ON SATURDAY. WARM FRONTAL PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE MKX FORECAST AREA. IN SOUTHERN
WI...WINDS WILL BE BREEZY OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AND
TEMPERATURES WELL INLAND FROM THE LAKE ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID
TO UPPER 60S.

ANOTHER MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST OVER THE WEEKEND. THE SURFACE TROUGH WITH THAT
NORTHERN SHORTWAVE WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT/PHASE WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH FROM THE SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE AND DRAW MOISTURE FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO SOUTHERN WI SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEKEND. A BAND OF DEEP AND SLOPED FRONTOGENESIS WILL SLOWLY
SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS WI.

THE GFS...ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
ABOUT TIMING OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH SOUTHERN WI UNTIL
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE ON THE SLOWER SIDE AND THERE
IS A GENERAL SLOWING TREND AMONGST ALL THE MODELS. THERE ARE STILL
DIFFERENCES ABOUT PRECIP AMOUNTS...BUT I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE AROUND A HALF INCH...GIVE OR TAKE.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE OVER CENTRAL WI ON SUNDAY
MORNING...WITH LOWEST CHANCES OVER SOUTHEAST WI. BY SUNDAY
NIGHT...THAT BETTER CHANCE SHOULD SLIP INTO SOUTHERN WI...ALTHOUGH
THIS IS THE TIME THAT THE GFS BECOMES FASTER THAN THE ECMWF.
DEPENDING ON HOW LONG CLOUDS AND PRECIP CAN HOLD OFF FOR
SUNDAY...PARTS OF FAR SOUTHERN WI COULD APPROACH 70 FOR HIGHS. THERE
IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO PRECIP CHANCES
AND TEMPERATURE.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE HANGING ONTO PRECIP CHANCES WELL INTO MONDAY
NOW...WITH DECREASING CHANCES IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR EARLY IN THE DAY AND GRADUALLY DROP.
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS MONDAY NIGHT WILL LEAD TO LOWS IN THE
LOWER 40S OR EVEN COLDER.

A HIGH-AMPLITUDE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL SET UP OVER THE CENTER OF THE
COUNTRY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT MID LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL LEAD TO SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTHERN WI WED AND WED NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF TAF SITES EARLY THIS
MORNING. KEPT LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IN TAFS UNTIL 12Z TO 13Z
THURSDAY...AS 45 KNOT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET AT 2000 FEET ABOVE
GROUND LEVEL LINGERS ACROSS THE AREA.

SURFACE WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS...AS THEY VEER FROM SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST. WINDS WILL WEAKEN AS
THEY VEER WEST BEHIND COLD FRONT BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND
NORTHWEST TONIGHT.

VFR CEILINGS WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LINGER INTO THE
MORNING...WITH SOME SCATTERING OUT POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. LOW
CLOUDS WITH MVFR/IFR CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF MADISON THIS
MORNING. HIGH CLOUDS MAY THIN OUT TONIGHT...LEFT SCATTERED WORDING
FOR NOW.

&&

.MARINE...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN UNTIL 18Z THURSDAY. GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS TO 30 KNOTS WILL
VEER SOUTH THIS MORNING...AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN BELOW 22 KNOTS BY 18Z
THURSDAY. HIGH WAVES WILL SUBSIDE BY 18Z AS WELL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

SEVERAL AREA RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE FLOOD AND BANKFULL
STAGES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MOST OF THE FAST RESPONDING AND
SMALLER RIVERS IN THE AREA HAVE CRESTED OR ARE CRESTING...AND ARE
FORECAST TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

THE SLOWER RESPONDING RIVERS...LIKE THE ROCK RIVER AND FOX RIVER
NEAR BERLIN...WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE FOR SEVERAL DAYS BEFORE
CRESTING. IT LOOKS LIKE THE ROCK RIVER LOCATIONS WILL CREST BELOW
FLOOD STAGE. FOR THE RIVERS ABOVE FLOOD STAGE...MOST OF THE CRESTS
HAVE BEEN OR WILL BE IN THE MINOR FLOOD STAGE AREA.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...WOOD
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MRC





000
FXUS63 KMKX 170308
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1008 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.UPDATE...THERE ARE SCT LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG THE COLD FRONT THAT IS
MOVING INTO ERN IA. OTHERWISE THE LARGE SHIELD OF RAIN AND SNOW
WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH WITH DRY AIR INHIBITING WIDESPREAD PCPN
OVER SRN WI. THE TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SFC LOW FROM IA
THROUGH CENTRAL WI ALSO FAVORS THE WIDESPREAD PCPN STAYING NORTH.
STILL EXPECT SCT SHOWERS WITH BETTER CHANCES OVER THE NRN CWA AS
THE SHORTWAVE LIFTS NEWD TOWARD CENTRAL WI DURING THE OVERNIGHT.
KEPT ALL PCPN TYPE RAIN WITH TEMPS STAYING A LITTLE MILDER THAN
EARLIER THOUGHT. THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PASS ON THU
WITH SOME SUNSHINE EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THICKER
HIGH CLOUDS MAY STREAM INTO FAR SE WI.


&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...AS LOW PRESSURE AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFT
NEWD FROM IA INTO CENTRAL WI FOR THU AM...A FEW SHOWERS MAY
DEVELOP ACROSS SRN WI. MID LEVEL CIGS MAY FALL TO 5-6 KFT WITH A
BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE FROM 13-16Z OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
WI INCLUDING KMSN. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO THEN PREVAIL AFTERWARD
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WI WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER SE
WI...BUT WITH VFR CONDITIONS. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL PASS BY
17Z AT KMSN AND DURING THE AFTERNOON OVER SE WI WITH SOUTH WINDS
GRADUALLY VEERING TO WESTERLY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014/

SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY-FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS BY JUST TO THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF LIFT WITH THIS
SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY AS THE ASSOCIATED STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVES IN FROM
THE WEST. MOISTURE IS A BIT OF AN ISSUE THOUGH...WITH MODELS SHOWING
A LOT OF DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS. LOOKS LIKE BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIP WILL BE CLOSE TO THE LOW WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE DEEPER.
LIKELY POPS WERE THUS CONFINED TO THE NORTH. KEPT IT MAINLY DRY NEAR
THE ILLINOIS BORDER. BETWEEN THE CLOUDS AND THE CONTINUED SOUTHERLY
WINDS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM...BUMPED LOW TEMPS UP A BIT
FOR TONIGHT.

ANY LINGERING PRECIP WILL WIND DOWN TOMORROW MORNING. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD GET UP INTO THE LOW 50S MOST PLACES AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...EXCEPT FOR MAYBE IN THE NORTHWEST.

FRIDAY-FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH

UPPER TROUGH PUSHES INTO MICHIGAN WITH 70 METER HEIGHT RISES OVER
WISCONSIN. BAND OF FRONTOGENETIC PRECIPITATION ALONG STALLED FRONT
FROM MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO LOWER MICHIGAN PROBABLY STAYS SOUTH
AND EAST OF AREA...BUT WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE MORNING FAR
SOUTHEAST.

SATURDAY-FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH

RATHER COMPLEX FLOW OVER THE CONUS WITH TWO FLOW REGIMES. ONE BAND
OF WESTERLIES IS OVER SOUTHERN CANADA WHILE THE OTHER ALONG THE
GULF COAST. SHORT WAVE RIDGE IS OVERHEAD WISCONSIN WITH CONTINUE
QUIET WEATHER DURING THE DAY. WARM ADVECTION SHIELD LOOKS TO GO
NORTH OF AREA AND AFFECT CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN DURING
THE DAY.

SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE OVER SOUTHERN PLAINS APPROACHES LATE
WITH POTENTIAL FOR RAIN TO SPREAD INTO AREA. THE NORTHWEST HALF
WILL BE ESPECIALLY VULNERABLE AS SURFACE FRONT APPROACHES AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

LONG TERM...

SUNDAY-FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN STREAMS TEND TO PHASE WITH 40 METER HEIGHT
FALLS AND LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN FOR EASTERN SUNDAY ACTIVITIES. GFS
AND ECMWF HAVE ENOUGH TIMING DIFFERENCES TO CAUSE MORE THAN NORMAL
UNCERTAINTY OF HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST. GFS WOULD BE WETTER AND
COOLER WITH FRONT PUSHING DOWN INTO ILLINOIS DURING THE DAY.

MEANWHILE...ECMWF STALLS FRONT TO THE NORTH AND PUMPS WARMER AIR
INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. UPPER 60S IN THIS SCENARIO...BUT MUCH
COOLER WITH GFS SOLUTION. LEANING MORE TOWARD WARMER ECMWF
POTENTIAL.

MONDAY-FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

30 METER HEIGHT FALLS FROM NORTHERN STREAM TO CONTINUE RAIN
CHANCES. GFS IS FASTER AND DRIER...WHILE ECMWF HOLDS ONTO
PRECIPITATION WITH SLOWER FRONTAL TIMING.

TUESDAY-FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

AS DEEP TROUGH ENTERS THE WEST COAST...DOWNSTREAM RIDGE BUILDS
OVER NORTHERN PLAINS AND MIDWEST. LOOKS QUIET WITH SURFACE HIGH
OVERHEAD.

WEDNESDAY-FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

STRONG TROUGH ENTERS THE PLAINS WITH RIDGE CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER
WISCONSIN DURING THE DAY BEFORE HEIGHTS FALL AT NIGHT.

BOTH ECMWF AND GFS ARE SIMILAR WITH DEEP LOW OVER NORTHEAST
MONTANA AND BROAD AREA OF WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO
WISCONSIN AS WARM FRONT MOVES INTO IOWA/ILLINOIS AREA.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE MAY BE A SOME
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...MAINLY
NORTH OF A LINE FROM LONE ROCK TO MILWAUKEE. COULD SEE A FEW SNOW
FLAKES MIX IN AT TIMES IN THE FAR NORTHERN FORECAST AREA. DRY
WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THURSDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE PULLS AWAY.

MARINE...

BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT...EASING AND VEERING
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST ON THURSDAY. HIGHER WAVES WILL LIKELY PERSIST
INTO THURSDAY MORNING...SO DECIDED TO EXTEND THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY UNTIL 18Z.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GEHRING
TONIGHT/THURSDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...DDV
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...CRAVEN





000
FXUS63 KMKX 162031
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
331 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...

.TONIGHT AND THURSDAY-FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS BY JUST TO THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF LIFT WITH THIS
SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY AS THE ASSOCIATED STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVES IN FROM
THE WEST. MOISTURE IS A BIT OF AN ISSUE THOUGH...WITH MODELS SHOWING
A LOT OF DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS. LOOKS LIKE BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIP WILL BE CLOSE TO THE LOW WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE DEEPER.
LIKELY POPS WERE THUS CONFINED TO THE NORTH. KEPT IT MAINLY DRY NEAR
THE ILLINOIS BORDER. BETWEEN THE CLOUDS AND THE CONTINUED SOUTHERLY
WINDS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM...BUMPED LOW TEMPS UP A BIT
FOR TONIGHT.

ANY LINGERING PRECIP WILL WIND DOWN TOMORROW MORNING. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD GET UP INTO THE LOW 50S MOST PLACES AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...EXCEPT FOR MAYBE IN THE NORTHWEST.

FRIDAY-FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH

UPPER TROUGH PUSHES INTO MICHIGAN WITH 70 METER HEIGHT RISES OVER
WISCONSIN. BAND OF FRONTOGENETIC PRECIPITATION ALONG STALLED FRONT
FROM MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO LOWER MICHIGAN PROBABLY STAYS SOUTH
AND EAST OF AREA...BUT WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE MORNING FAR
SOUTHEAST.

SATURDAY-FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH

RATHER COMPLEX FLOW OVER THE CONUS WITH TWO FLOW REGIMES. ONE BAND
OF WESTERLIES IS OVER SOUTHERN CANADA WHILE THE OTHER ALONG THE
GULF COAST. SHORT WAVE RIDGE IS OVERHEAD WISCONSIN WITH CONTINUE
QUIET WEATHER DURING THE DAY. WARM ADVECTION SHIELD LOOKS TO GO
NROTH OF AREA AND AFFECT CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN DURING THE
DAY.

SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE OVER SOUTHERN PLAINS APPROACHES LATE
WITH POTENTIAL FOR RAIN TO SPREAD INTO AREA. THE NORTHWEST HALF
WILL BE ESPECIALLY VULNERABLE AS SURFACE FRONT APPROACHES AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...

SUNDAY-FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN STREAMS TEND TO PHASE WITH 40 METER HEIGHT
FALLS AND LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN FOR EASTERN SUNDAY ACTIVITIES. GFS
AND ECMWF HAVE ENOUGH TIMING DIFFERENCES TO CAUSE MORE THAN NORMAL
UNCERTAINTY OF HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST. GFS WOULD BE WETTER AND
COOLER WITH FRONT PUSHING DOWN INTO ILLINOIS DURING THE DAY.

MEANWHILE...ECMWF STALLES FRONT TO THE NORTH AND PUMPS WARMER AIR
INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. UPPER 60S IN THIS SCENARIO...BUT MUCH
COOLER WITH GFS SOLUTION. LEANING MORE TOWARD WARMER ECMWF
POTENTIAL.

MONDAY-FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

30 METER HEIGHT FALLS FROM NORTHERN STREAM TO CONTINUE RAIN
CHANCES. GFS IS FASTER AND DRIER...WHILE ECMWF HOLDS ONTO
PRECIPITATION WITH SLOWER FRONTAL TIMING.

TUESDAY-FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

AS DEEP TROUGH ENTERS THE WEST COAST...DOWNSTREAM RIDGE BUILDS
OVER NORTHERN PLAINS AND MIDWEST. LOOKS QUIET WITH SURFACE HIGH
OVERHEAD.

WEDNESDAY-FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

STRONG TROUGH ENTERS THE PLAINS WITH RIDGE CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER
WISCONSIN DURING THE DAY BEFORE HEIGHTS FALL AT NIGHT.

BOTH ECMWF AND GFS ARE SIMILAR WITH DEEP LOW OVER NORTHEAST
MONTANA AND BROAD AREA OF WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO
WISCONSIN AS WARM FRONT MOVES INTO IOWA/ILLINOIS AREA.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE MAY BE A SOME
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...MAINLY
NORTH OF A LINE FROM LONE ROCK TO MILWAUKEE. COULD SEE A FEW SNOW
FLAKES MIX IN AT TIMES IN THE FAR NORTHERN FORECAST AREA. DRY
WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THURSDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE PULLS AWAY.

&&

.MARINE...

BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT...EASING AND VEERING
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST ON THURSDAY. HIGHER WAVES WILL LIKELY PERSIST
INTO THURSDAY MORNING...SO DECIDED TO EXTEND THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY UNTIL 18Z.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

TONIGHT/THURSDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...DDV
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...CRAVEN





000
FXUS63 KMKX 161551 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1051 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.UPDATE...DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP LIGHT
PRECIP IN THE AREA FROM HITTING THE GROUND. THOUGH RETURNS ARE
PERSISTENT ON THE RADAR...THERE HAVE BEEN NO REPORTS OF PRECIP AT
THE SURFACE. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PICK UP THROUGH LATE MORNING
AND INTO THE AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE DRAWS NEAR. BASED ON LATEST
MODELS AND OBS...THE HIGH TEMP FORECAST FOR TODAY STILL LOOKS
GOOD.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THURSDAY. THERE MAY BE A SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...MAINLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM LONE ROCK TO
MILWAUKEE. COULD SEE A FEW SNOW FLAKES MIX IN AT TIMES. DRY
WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THURSDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE PULLS AWAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014/

SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS TO NORTH
CENTRAL IOWA TODAY...AND INTO NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN TONIGHT. WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS TIME.
INITIAL FOCUSED WARM AIR ADVECTION/850 MB FRONTOGENESIS RESPONSE
FIELDS BRINGING SNOW INTO WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...WITH MORE
SCATTERED ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTH OF THIS AREA. THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF
THIS PRECIPITATION MAY CLIP THE FAR NORTHWEST COUNTIES THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS...THOUGH MOST MODELS ARE DRY THERE AS LOW LEVELS
REMAIN FAIRLY DRY. KEPT VERY LOW POPS IN THE FAR NORTHWEST INTO THIS
MORNING.

OTHERWISE...MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD
THROUGH THE AREA...MOST CONCENTRATED IN THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES.
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY LATER TONIGHT. SHOULD SEE GUSTS IN
THE 25 TO 30 KNOT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...HIGHEST TOWARD THE
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD REACH THE LOWER TO MID 50S
INLAND...WITH 40S NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN.

500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDES NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT. SOME UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE NOTED AS WELL...IN FAVORABLE
JET STREAK QUADRANT. GOOD UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION FIELDS FROM Q
VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION. MAIN ISSUE IS MOISTURE IN
THE LOW LEVELS. MOST SHORT TERM MODELS BRING LIGHT QPF THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...WITH THE NAM SHOWING THE LOWEST QPF.
DECENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS ONLY A FEW THOUSAND FEET THICK...WITH A
FAIR AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN THE MIDDLE LEVELS.

FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE
AREA. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD ONLY DROP INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S
WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER NORTHERN WI THU MORNING WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY. THE CORRESPONDING SURFACE LOW WILL BE
OVER CENTRAL WI AT 12Z THU MORNING AND LIFT INTO EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR BY LATE AFTERNOON. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTHEAST
THROUGH SOUTHERN WI BY MID AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO
NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY. IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL JUST BE SOME
CLOUDS WITH THIS TROUGH BECAUSE PROFILES APPEAR VERY DRY IN THE MID
LEVELS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S
MOST AREAS BEFORE THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.

ALL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE PRECIP WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
OVER THE PLAINS RIDING UP INTO IL WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE WI BORDER
THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY. CARRIED SLIGHT CHANCES IN FAR SOUTHEAST WI THU
NIGHT FOR NOW.

MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT WILL SLIP DOWN LAKE MICHIGAN THU NIGHT INTO
FRI MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT COULD GENERATE LOW CLOUDS...BUT IT LOOKS TOO DRY FOR
ANY PRECIP. NOT EXPECTING COLD ENOUGH TEMPS ALOFT TO GENERATE LAKE
EFFECT EITHER. THE ECMWF IS THE WARMEST OF ALL MODEL GUIDANCE AND
DOES NOT BRING SUB-ZERO 850MB TEMPS TO SOUTHERN WI. WENT WITH THE
CONSENSUS APPROACH FOR MIN/MAX TEMPS BUT FAVORED THE COLDER MAJORITY
OF THE MODELS.

THE ECMWF IS ALSO FASTER THAN OTHER MODELS WITH BRINGING THE WARMER
AIR BACK INTO SOUTH CENTRAL WI FRI AFTERNOON. STILL...WE COULD HIT
50 IN MADISON BEFORE THE DAY ENDS IF THERE IS ENOUGH SUNSHINE. AN
EASTERLY BREEZE WILL KEEP LAKESHORE TEMPS COOL IN THE LOWER 40S AND
FALLING TEMPS IN THE AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE ANOTHER COLD NIGHT FRI
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S.

LONG TERM...

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

THE NEXT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
ON SATURDAY. WARM FRONTAL PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE MKX FORECAST AREA. ANOTHER MID LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST OVER
THE WEEKEND. THE SURFACE TROUGH WITH THAT NORTHERN SHORTWAVE WILL
BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH A SURFACE TROUGH FROM THE SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE
AND BEGIN TO DRAW IN MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. THE GFS IS SHOWING STRONGER
SHORTWAVES THAN THE ECWMF AND THUS PRODUCES HEAVIER PRECIPITATION.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE OVER CENTRAL WI ON SUNDAY RATHER
THAN FAR SOUTHEAST WI. BY SUNDAY NIGHT...THAT BETTER CHANCE WILL
SLIP INTO SOUTHERN WI. DEPENDING ON HOW LONG CLOUDS AND PRECIP CAN
HOLD OFF FOR SUNDAY...PARTS OF FAR SOUTHERN WI COULD APPROACH 60 FOR
HIGHS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

ANY LINGERING PRECIP SHOULD END BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS MID LEVEL RIDGING SETS UP OVER THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS TAF SITES TODAY AND TONIGHT. MAIN
PRECIPITATION AREA WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF TAF SITES DURING THIS
TIME. MAY SEE LIGHT RAIN OCCUR BRIEFLY TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOW SO LEFT PRECIPITATION MENTION OUT OF TAFS. BROKEN MIDDLE LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING...LINGERING THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. MAY SEE BREAKS AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY AT THE
EASTERN SITES.

GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY MIDDLE
MORNING...AND LINGER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. GUSTS OF AROUND 30
KNOTS ARE EXPECTED AT MADISON THIS AFTERNOON...TO AROUND 20 KNOTS AT
MILWAUKEE AND KENOSHA. STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR A
TIME TONIGHT AT MADISON...BUT LEFT OUT LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AS
SURFACE GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS WILL LINGER.

MARINE...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN FROM 15Z WEDNESDAY UNTIL 12Z THURSDAY. A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL OCCUR OVER THE AREA DURING THIS TIME...ALLOWING FOR
GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS. FREQUENT GUSTS TO 22 TO 25 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED. HIGH WAVES OF 5 TO 8 FEET ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME.
WINDS AND WAVES WILL SUBSIDE BELOW CRITERIA BY 12Z THURSDAY...AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES WITH THE LOW MOVING OUT OF THE REGION.

HYDROLOGY...

SEVERAL AREA RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE FLOOD AND BANKFULL
STAGES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MOST OF THE FAST RESPONDING AND
SMALLER RIVERS IN THE AREA HAVE CRESTED OR ARE NEAR CREST...AND ARE
FORECAST TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE SLOWER
RESPONDING RIVERS...LIKE THE ROCK RIVER AND FOX RIVER NEAR
BERLIN...WILL CONTINUE TO RISE FOR SEVERAL DAYS BEFORE CRESTING. FOR
THE RIVERS ABOVE FLOOD STAGE...MOST OF THE CRESTS HAVE BEEN OR WILL
BE IN THE MINOR FLOOD STAGE AREA.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DDV
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...WOOD
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MRC





000
FXUS63 KMKX 160841
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
341 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS TO NORTH
CENTRAL IOWA TODAY...AND INTO NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN TONIGHT. WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS TIME.
INITIAL FOCUSED WARM AIR ADVECTION/850 MB FRONTOGENESIS RESPONSE
FIELDS BRINGING SNOW INTO WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...WITH MORE
SCATTERED ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTH OF THIS AREA. THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF
THIS PRECIPITATION MAY CLIP THE FAR NORTHWEST COUNTIES THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS...THOUGH MOST MODELS ARE DRY THERE AS LOW LEVELS
REMAIN FAIRLY DRY. KEPT VERY LOW POPS IN THE FAR NORTHWEST INTO THIS
MORNING.

OTHERWISE...MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD
THROUGH THE AREA...MOST CONCENTRATED IN THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES.
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY LATER TONIGHT. SHOULD SEE GUSTS IN
THE 25 TO 30 KNOT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...HIGHEST TOWARD THE
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD REACH THE LOWER TO MID 50S
INLAND...WITH 40S NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN.

500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDES NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT. SOME UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE NOTED AS WELL...IN FAVORABLE
JET STREAK QUADRANT. GOOD UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION FIELDS FROM Q
VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION. MAIN ISSUE IS MOISTURE IN
THE LOW LEVELS. MOST SHORT TERM MODELS BRING LIGHT QPF THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...WITH THE NAM SHOWING THE LOWEST QPF.
DECENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS ONLY A FEW THOUSAND FEET THICK...WITH A
FAIR AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN THE MIDDLE LEVELS.

FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE
AREA. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD ONLY DROP INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S
WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER NORTHERN WI THU MORNING WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY. THE CORRESPONDING SURFACE LOW WILL BE
OVER CENTRAL WI AT 12Z THU MORNING AND LIFT INTO EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR BY LATE AFTERNOON. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTHEAST
THROUGH SOUTHERN WI BY MID AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO
NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY. IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL JUST BE SOME
CLOUDS WITH THIS TROUGH BECAUSE PROFILES APPEAR VERY DRY IN THE MID
LEVELS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S
MOST AREAS BEFORE THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.

ALL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE PRECIP WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
OVER THE PLAINS RIDING UP INTO IL WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE WI BORDER
THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY. CARRIED SLIGHT CHANCES IN FAR SOUTHEAST WI THU
NIGHT FOR NOW.

MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT WILL SLIP DOWN LAKE MICHIGAN THU NIGHT INTO
FRI MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT COULD GENERATE LOW CLOUDS...BUT IT LOOKS TOO DRY FOR
ANY PRECIP. NOT EXPECTING COLD ENOUGH TEMPS ALOFT TO GENERATE LAKE
EFFECT EITHER. THE ECMWF IS THE WARMEST OF ALL MODEL GUIDANCE AND
DOES NOT BRING SUB-ZERO 850MB TEMPS TO SOUTHERN WI. WENT WITH THE
CONSENSUS APPROACH FOR MIN/MAX TEMPS BUT FAVORED THE COLDER MAJORITY
OF THE MODELS.

THE ECMWF IS ALSO FASTER THAN OTHER MODELS WITH BRINGING THE WARMER
AIR BACK INTO SOUTH CENTRAL WI FRI AFTERNOON. STILL...WE COULD HIT
50 IN MADISON BEFORE THE DAY ENDS IF THERE IS ENOUGH SUNSHINE. AN
EASTERLY BREEZE WILL KEEP LAKESHORE TEMPS COOL IN THE LOWER 40S AND
FALLING TEMPS IN THE AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE ANOTHER COLD NIGHT FRI
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S.

.LONG TERM...

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

THE NEXT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
ON SATURDAY. WARM FRONTAL PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE MKX FORECAST AREA. ANOTHER MID LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST OVER
THE WEEKEND. THE SURFACE TROUGH WITH THAT NORTHERN SHORTWAVE WILL
BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH A SURFACE TROUGH FROM THE SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE
AND BEGIN TO DRAW IN MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. THE GFS IS SHOWING STRONGER
SHORTWAVES THAN THE ECWMF AND THUS PRODUCES HEAVIER PRECIPITATION.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE OVER CENTRAL WI ON SUNDAY RATHER
THAN FAR SOUTHEAST WI. BY SUNDAY NIGHT...THAT BETTER CHANCE WILL
SLIP INTO SOUTHERN WI. DEPENDING ON HOW LONG CLOUDS AND PRECIP CAN
HOLD OFF FOR SUNDAY...PARTS OF FAR SOUTHERN WI COULD APPROACH 60 FOR
HIGHS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

ANY LINGERING PRECIP SHOULD END BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS MID LEVEL RIDGING SETS UP OVER THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS TAF SITES TODAY AND TONIGHT. MAIN
PRECIPITATION AREA WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF TAF SITES DURING THIS
TIME. MAY SEE LIGHT RAIN OCCUR BRIEFLY TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOW SO LEFT PRECIPITATION MENTION OUT OF TAFS. BROKEN MIDDLE LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING...LINGERING THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. MAY SEE BREAKS AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY AT THE
EASTERN SITES.

GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY MIDDLE
MORNING...AND LINGER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. GUSTS OF AROUND 30
KNOTS ARE EXPECTED AT MADISON THIS AFTERNOON...TO AROUND 20 KNOTS AT
MILWAUKEE AND KENOSHA. STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR A
TIME TONIGHT AT MADISON...BUT LEFT OUT LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AS
SURFACE GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS WILL LINGER.

&&

.MARINE...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN FROM 15Z WEDNESDAY UNTIL 12Z THURSDAY. A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL OCCUR OVER THE AREA DURING THIS TIME...ALLOWING FOR
GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS. FREQUENT GUSTS TO 22 TO 25 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED. HIGH WAVES OF 5 TO 8 FEET ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME.
WINDS AND WAVES WILL SUBSIDE BELOW CRITERIA BY 12Z THURSDAY...AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES WITH THE LOW MOVING OUT OF THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

SEVERAL AREA RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE FLOOD AND BANKFULL
STAGES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MOST OF THE FAST RESPONDING AND
SMALLER RIVERS IN THE AREA HAVE CRESTED OR ARE NEAR CREST...AND ARE
FORECAST TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE SLOWER
RESPONDING RIVERS...LIKE THE ROCK RIVER AND FOX RIVER NEAR
BERLIN...WILL CONTINUE TO RISE FOR SEVERAL DAYS BEFORE CRESTING. FOR
THE RIVERS ABOVE FLOOD STAGE...MOST OF THE CRESTS HAVE BEEN OR WILL
BE IN THE MINOR FLOOD STAGE AREA.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM CDT
     THURSDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...WOOD
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MRC





000
FXUS63 KMKX 160407
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1107 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.UPDATE...


.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...MID LEVEL CLOUDS NOW DEVELOPING AS MID LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION GETS UNDERWAY. THE STRONGEST MID LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION WILL OCCUR ACROSS NW WI LATER TONIGHT WHERE LIGHT SNOW
WILL DEVELOP. IT WILL REMAIN DRY OVER SRN WI FOR MOST OF WED WITH
ONLY SMALL CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MID TO HIGH
CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THIS PERIOD...AND SOUTH WINDS
WILL BECOMES BREEZY BY WED AFTERNOON WITH WIND GUSTS TO 30-35 KTS.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014/

SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY..FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT QUICKLY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS
DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST. WINDS WILL GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS
EVENING FOR A WHILE AS WELL...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO
THE 20S QUICKLY GIVEN DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS. MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING OVERNIGHT THOUGH...AND WINDS ALOFT WILL
ALSO PICK UP...SO LOWS FOR THE NIGHT WILL BE HIGHER THAN LAST
NIGHT...WITH TEMPS LIKELY HOLDING STEADY OR SLOWLY INCREASING LATER
IN THE NIGHT.

GIVEN DECENT WARM ADVECTION...MAY SEE A FEW FLURRIES OR SPRINKLES IN
THE NORTH TOMORROW MORNING. THERE WILL BE A LOT OF DRY AIR IN THE
LOW LEVELS THOUGH...SO IT WILL PROBABLY BE HARD FOR ANY PRECIP TO
MAKE IT TO THE GROUND. LOOKS LIKE A BETTER CHANCE FOR A SOME RAIN
SHOWERS LATE AFTERNOON IN THE NORTHWEST AS LOW PRESSURE DRAWS NEAR.

THE OTHER ISSUE TOMORROW WILL BE THE WINDS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE
QUITE BREEZY AS THE LOW APPROACHES AND THE LOW LEVEL JET SLIDES INTO
THE AREA. THE HIGHEST GUSTS WILL PROBABLY BE IN THE WEST WHERE WINDS
ALOFT WILL BE STRONGEST DURING PERIOD OF BEST MIXING. ONLY ISSUE
MIGHT BE MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...WHICH COULD DECREASING MIXING SOME
AND LIMIT HIGHER GUSTS. EITHER WAY...SHOULD SEE GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH 45 MPH NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WEST.

TEMPS WILL BE MILDER TOMORROW UNDER THE SOUTHERLY FLOW...THOUGH WILL
LIKELY FALL SHORT OF NORMAL VALUES BY A COUPLE DEGREES.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWEST THURSDAY AS A TROUGH
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MOVES INTO FAR WESTERN MINNESOTA.
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OCCURS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH ACROSS
WISCONSIN. WEAK 700 MB UPWARD MOTION EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING GIVES
WAY TO DOWNWARD MOTION LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE WEAK UPWARD
MOTION BEGINS THURSDAY.

A BAND OF HIGHER 850/700 MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY EXTENDS ACROSS
AREAS NORTHWEST AND WEST OF MADISON BEFORE LIFTING NORTH INTO
CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY MIDNIGHT. THEN ANOTHER BAND OF HIGHER RH
DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH A
MID LEVEL SOUTHERN TROUGH.

THE NAM HAS SOME PRECIPITATION ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE TROUGH
AXIS WEDNESDAY EVENING...BUT NEVER MAKES IT INTO THE SOUTHEAST.
THEN SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION FALLS OVER FAR SOUTH CENTRAL AND
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THICKNESS
VALUES ARE MARGINAL FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION BUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER
SHOULD BE TOO WARM FOR SNOW. THE ECMWF AND ESPECIALLY THE GFS ARE
DRIER.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

A RATHER SHARP UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS WISCONSIN THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH WEAK TO MODERATE UPPER DIVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
AXIS. MODERATE UPWARD MOTION ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST THURSDAY
EVENING.

IN THE MID LEVELS THE 500 MB TROUGH IS SLOWER AND HAS A SECONDARY
WEAKER TROUGH DROPPING INTO WISCONSIN DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THE NAM HAS A BAND OF PRECIPITATION EXTENDING ACROSS SOUTHEAST
WISCONSIN DURING THE EVENING. 850 AND THICKNESS VALUES WOULD
INDICATE SNOW AND THE BOUNDARY LEVELS COOL ENOUGH THAT SOME SNOW
IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER THE ECMWF AND ESPECIALLY THE
GFS ARE DRIER.

THE 700 MB RH DRIES EARLY FRIDAY MORNING BUT INCREASES A LITTLE
WEST OF MADISON FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXITS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING ACROSS
WISCONSIN SATURDAY.

BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF BRINGS A SURFACE HIGH INTO
WISCONSIN FRIDAY NIGHT. THE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES SATURDAY ON THE GFS...WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF BRINGS SOME LIGHT
RAIN INTO AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF MADISON DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURS.

SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

THE GFS AND 00Z ECMWF BRINGS A WEAK SHORTWAVE ACROSS WISCONSIN
SUNDAY.

BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF BRINGS IN SOME RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY...WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS ON THE GFS. SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE TROF AXIS AND WARM FRONT FOR
A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

AS THE SHORTWAVE EXITS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES IT STRENGTHENS...
ESPECIALLY ON THE 00Z ECMWF AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
EASTERN PLAINS...TUESDAY.

SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT...BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN ISSUE
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON WILL BE TIMING WIND SHIFTS NEAR LAKE
MICHIGAN...ESPECIALLY FROM MILWAUKEE SOUTHWARD. HAVE ALREADY SEEN A
FEW REPORTS ALONG THE LAKE TURN EASTWARD. GIVEN THAT THERE IS NOT
MUCH OF A DRIVING FORCE FOR A LAKE BREEZE...WINDS MAY JUST GO LIGHT
A VARIABLE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

MAIN CONCERN TOMORROW WILL BE WINDY CONDITIONS FROM MID MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SOUTH WINDS WILL LIKELY GUST TO 30-35 KNOTS.
THE HIGHEST GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS THE WESTERN FORECAST
AREA TOWARD THE LOW LEVEL JET...WHERE A FEW GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS ARE
POSSIBLE.

AS SURFACE WINDS DECREASE LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING...WILL PROBABLY HAVE TO DEAL WITH LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR UNTIL
WINDS ALOFT DECREASE LATE EVENING AND EARLY NIGHT.

MAY SEE A FEW SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES FAR NORTH TOMORROW MORNING...AND
MAYBE A FEW RAIN SHOWERS NORTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...LOOKS MAINLY DRY FOR WEDNESDAY.

MARINE...

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE. GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS ARE LIKELY FROM MID MORNING INTO
THE EVENING...WITH WINDS SLOWLY EASING LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT SLIGHT
ONSHORE COMPONENT TO THE WINDS MAY LIMIT HIGHER GUSTS GIVEN THE
COOLER MARINE LAYER. THUS DECIDED TO GO WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FROM 15Z WED TO 12Z THU. WENT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS HIGHER
WAVES WILL PROBABLY LINGER AFTER WINDS SETTLE DOWN.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM CDT THURSDAY
     FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GEHRING
TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...DDV
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...HENTZ





000
FXUS63 KMKX 152009
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
309 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...

.TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY..FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT QUICKLY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS
DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST. WINDS WILL GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS
EVENING FOR A WHILE AS WELL...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO
THE 20S QUICKLY GIVEN DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS. MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING OVERNIGHT THOUGH...AND WINDS ALOFT WILL
ALSO PICK UP...SO LOWS FOR THE NIGHT WILL BE HIGHER THAN LAST
NIGHT...WITH TEMPS LIKELY HOLDING STEADY OR SLOWLY INCREASING LATER
IN THE NIGHT.

GIVEN DECENT WARM ADVECTION...MAY SEE A FEW FLURRIES OR SPRINKLES IN
THE NORTH TOMORROW MORNING. THERE WILL BE A LOT OF DRY AIR IN THE
LOW LEVELS THOUGH...SO IT WILL PROBABLY BE HARD FOR ANY PRECIP TO
MAKE IT TO THE GROUND. LOOKS LIKE A BETTER CHANCE FOR A SOME RAIN
SHOWERS LATE AFTERNOON IN THE NORTHWEST AS LOW PRESSURE DRAWS NEAR.

THE OTHER ISSUE TOMORROW WILL BE THE WINDS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE
QUITE BREEZY AS THE LOW APPROACHES AND THE LOW LEVEL JET SLIDES INTO
THE AREA. THE HIGHEST GUSTS WILL PROBABLY BE IN THE WEST WHERE WINDS
ALOFT WILL BE STRONGEST DURING PERIOD OF BEST MIXING. ONLY ISSUE
MIGHT BE MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...WHICH COULD DECREASING MIXING SOME
AND LIMIT HIGHER GUSTS. EITHER WAY...SHOULD SEE GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH 45 MPH NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WEST.

TEMPS WILL BE MILDER TOMORROW UNDER THE SOUTHERLY FLOW...THOUGH WILL
LIKELY FALL SHORT OF NORMAL VALUES BY A COUPLE DEGREES.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWEST THURSDAY AS A TROUGH
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MOVES INTO FAR WESTERN MINNESOTA.
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OCCURS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH ACROSS
WISCONSIN. WEAK 700 MB UPWARD MOTION EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING GIVES
WAY TO DOWNWARD MOTION LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE WEAK UPWARD
MOTION BEGINS THURSDAY.

A BAND OF HIGHER 850/700 MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY EXTENDS ACROSS
AREAS NORTHWEST AND WEST OF MADISON BEFORE LIFTING NORTH INTO
CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY MIDNIGHT. THEN ANOTHER BAND OF HIGHER RH
DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH A
MID LEVEL SOUTHERN TROUGH.

THE NAM HAS SOME PRECIPITATION ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE TROUGH
AXIS WEDNESDAY EVENING...BUT NEVER MAKES IT INTO THE SOUTHEAST.
THEN SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION FALLS OVER FAR SOUTH CENTRAL AND
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THICKNESS
VALUES ARE MARGINAL FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION BUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER
SHOULD BE TOO WARM FOR SNOW. THE ECMWF AND ESPECIALLY THE GFS ARE
DRIER.

.THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

A RATHER SHARP UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS WISCONSIN THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH WEAK TO MODERATE UPPER DIVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
AXIS. MODERATE UPWARD MOTION ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST THURSDAY
EVENING.

IN THE MID LEVELS THE 500 MB TROUGH IS SLOWER AND HAS A SECONDARY
WEAKER TROUGH DROPPING INTO WISCONSIN DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THE NAM HAS A BAND OF PRECIPITATION EXTENDING ACROSS SOUTHEAST
WISCONSIN DURING THE EVENING. 850 AND THICKNESS VALUES WOULD
INDICATE SNOW AND THE BOUNDARY LEVELS COOL ENOUGH THAT SOME SNOW
IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER THE ECMWF AND ESPECIALLY THE
GFS ARE DRIER.

THE 700 MB RH DRIES EARLY FRIDAY MORNING BUT INCREASES A LITTLE
WEST OF MADISON FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...

.FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXITS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING ACROSS
WISCONSIN SATURDAY.

BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF BRINGS A SURFACE HIGH INTO
WISCONSIN FRIDAY NIGHT. THE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES SATURDAY ON THE GFS...WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF BRINGS SOME LIGHT
RAIN INTO AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF MADISON DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURS.

.SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

THE GFS AND 00Z ECMWF BRINGS A WEAK SHORTWAVE ACROSS WISCONSIN
SUNDAY.

BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF BRINGS IN SOME RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY...WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS ON THE GFS. SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE TROF AXIS AND WARM FRONT FOR
A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

.MONDAY AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

AS THE SHORTWAVE EXITS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES IT STRENGTHENS...
ESPECIALLY ON THE 00Z ECMWF AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
EASTERN PLAINS...TUESDAY.

SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT...BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN ISSUE
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON WILL BE TIMING WIND SHIFTS NEAR LAKE
MICHIGAN...ESPECIALLY FROM MILWAUKEE SOUTHWARD. HAVE ALREADY SEEN A
FEW REPORTS ALONG THE LAKE TURN EASTWARD. GIVEN THAT THERE IS NOT
MUCH OF A DRIVING FORCE FOR A LAKE BREEZE...WINDS MAY JUST GO LIGHT
A VARIABLE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

MAIN CONCERN TOMORROW WILL BE WINDY CONDITIONS FROM MID MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SOUTH WINDS WILL LIKELY GUST TO 30-35 KNOTS.
THE HIGHEST GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS THE WESTERN FORECAST
AREA TOWARD THE LOW LEVEL JET...WHERE A FEW GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS ARE
POSSIBLE.

AS SURFACE WINDS DECREASE LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING...WILL PROBABLY HAVE TO DEAL WITH LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR UNTIL
WINDS ALOFT DECREASE LATE EVENING AND EARLY NIGHT.

MAY SEE A FEW SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES FAR NORTH TOMORROW MORNING...AND
MAYBE A FEW RAIN SHOWERS NORTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...LOOKS MAINLY DRY FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE. GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS ARE LIKELY FROM MID MORNING INTO
THE EVENING...WITH WINDS SLOWLY EASING LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT SLIGHT
ONSHORE COMPONENT TO THE WINDS MAY LIMIT HIGHER GUSTS GIVEN THE
COOLER MARINE LAYER. THUS DECIDED TO GO WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FROM 15Z WED TO 12Z THU. WENT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS HIGHER
WAVES WILL PROBABLY LINGER AFTER WINDS SETTLE DOWN.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...DDV
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...HENTZ





000
FXUS63 KMKX 152009 CCA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
309 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...

.TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY..FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT QUICKLY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS
DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST. WINDS WILL GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS
EVENING FOR A WHILE AS WELL...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO
THE 20S QUICKLY GIVEN DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS. MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING OVERNIGHT THOUGH...AND WINDS ALOFT WILL
ALSO PICK UP...SO LOWS FOR THE NIGHT WILL BE HIGHER THAN LAST
NIGHT...WITH TEMPS LIKELY HOLDING STEADY OR SLOWLY INCREASING LATER
IN THE NIGHT.

GIVEN DECENT WARM ADVECTION...MAY SEE A FEW FLURRIES OR SPRINKLES IN
THE NORTH TOMORROW MORNING. THERE WILL BE A LOT OF DRY AIR IN THE
LOW LEVELS THOUGH...SO IT WILL PROBABLY BE HARD FOR ANY PRECIP TO
MAKE IT TO THE GROUND. LOOKS LIKE A BETTER CHANCE FOR A SOME RAIN
SHOWERS LATE AFTERNOON IN THE NORTHWEST AS LOW PRESSURE DRAWS NEAR.

THE OTHER ISSUE TOMORROW WILL BE THE WINDS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE
QUITE BREEZY AS THE LOW APPROACHES AND THE LOW LEVEL JET SLIDES INTO
THE AREA. THE HIGHEST GUSTS WILL PROBABLY BE IN THE WEST WHERE WINDS
ALOFT WILL BE STRONGEST DURING PERIOD OF BEST MIXING. ONLY ISSUE
MIGHT BE MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...WHICH COULD DECREASING MIXING SOME
AND LIMIT HIGHER GUSTS. EITHER WAY...SHOULD SEE GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH 45 MPH NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WEST.

TEMPS WILL BE MILDER TOMORROW UNDER THE SOUTHERLY FLOW...THOUGH WILL
LIKELY FALL SHORT OF NORMAL VALUES BY A COUPLE DEGREES.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWEST THURSDAY AS A TROUGH
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MOVES INTO FAR WESTERN MINNESOTA.
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OCCURS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH ACROSS
WISCONSIN. WEAK 700 MB UPWARD MOTION EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING GIVES
WAY TO DOWNWARD MOTION LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE WEAK UPWARD
MOTION BEGINS THURSDAY.

A BAND OF HIGHER 850/700 MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY EXTENDS ACROSS
AREAS NORTHWEST AND WEST OF MADISON BEFORE LIFTING NORTH INTO
CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY MIDNIGHT. THEN ANOTHER BAND OF HIGHER RH
DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH A
MID LEVEL SOUTHERN TROUGH.

THE NAM HAS SOME PRECIPITATION ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE TROUGH
AXIS WEDNESDAY EVENING...BUT NEVER MAKES IT INTO THE SOUTHEAST.
THEN SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION FALLS OVER FAR SOUTH CENTRAL AND
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THICKNESS
VALUES ARE MARGINAL FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION BUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER
SHOULD BE TOO WARM FOR SNOW. THE ECMWF AND ESPECIALLY THE GFS ARE
DRIER.

.THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

A RATHER SHARP UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS WISCONSIN THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH WEAK TO MODERATE UPPER DIVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
AXIS. MODERATE UPWARD MOTION ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST THURSDAY
EVENING.

IN THE MID LEVELS THE 500 MB TROUGH IS SLOWER AND HAS A SECONDARY
WEAKER TROUGH DROPPING INTO WISCONSIN DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THE NAM HAS A BAND OF PRECIPITATION EXTENDING ACROSS SOUTHEAST
WISCONSIN DURING THE EVENING. 850 AND THICKNESS VALUES WOULD
INDICATE SNOW AND THE BOUNDARY LEVELS COOL ENOUGH THAT SOME SNOW
IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER THE ECMWF AND ESPECIALLY THE
GFS ARE DRIER.

THE 700 MB RH DRIES EARLY FRIDAY MORNING BUT INCREASES A LITTLE
WEST OF MADISON FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...

.FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXITS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING ACROSS
WISCONSIN SATURDAY.

BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF BRINGS A SURFACE HIGH INTO
WISCONSIN FRIDAY NIGHT. THE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES SATURDAY ON THE GFS...WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF BRINGS SOME LIGHT
RAIN INTO AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF MADISON DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURS.

.SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

THE GFS AND 00Z ECMWF BRINGS A WEAK SHORTWAVE ACROSS WISCONSIN
SUNDAY.

BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF BRINGS IN SOME RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY...WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS ON THE GFS. SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE TROF AXIS AND WARM FRONT FOR
A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

.MONDAY AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

AS THE SHORTWAVE EXITS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES IT STRENGTHENS...
ESPECIALLY ON THE 00Z ECMWF AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
EASTERN PLAINS...TUESDAY.

SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT...BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN ISSUE
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON WILL BE TIMING WIND SHIFTS NEAR LAKE
MICHIGAN...ESPECIALLY FROM MILWAUKEE SOUTHWARD. HAVE ALREADY SEEN A
FEW REPORTS ALONG THE LAKE TURN EASTWARD. GIVEN THAT THERE IS NOT
MUCH OF A DRIVING FORCE FOR A LAKE BREEZE...WINDS MAY JUST GO LIGHT
A VARIABLE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

MAIN CONCERN TOMORROW WILL BE WINDY CONDITIONS FROM MID MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SOUTH WINDS WILL LIKELY GUST TO 30-35 KNOTS.
THE HIGHEST GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS THE WESTERN FORECAST
AREA TOWARD THE LOW LEVEL JET...WHERE A FEW GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS ARE
POSSIBLE.

AS SURFACE WINDS DECREASE LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING...WILL PROBABLY HAVE TO DEAL WITH LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR UNTIL
WINDS ALOFT DECREASE LATE EVENING AND EARLY NIGHT.

MAY SEE A FEW SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES FAR NORTH TOMORROW MORNING...AND
MAYBE A FEW RAIN SHOWERS NORTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...LOOKS MAINLY DRY FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE. GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS ARE LIKELY FROM MID MORNING INTO
THE EVENING...WITH WINDS SLOWLY EASING LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT SLIGHT
ONSHORE COMPONENT TO THE WINDS MAY LIMIT HIGHER GUSTS GIVEN THE
COOLER MARINE LAYER. THUS DECIDED TO GO WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FROM 15Z WED TO 12Z THU. WENT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS HIGHER
WAVES WILL PROBABLY LINGER AFTER WINDS SETTLE DOWN.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM CDT THURSDAY
     FOR LMZ643>646.
&&

$$

TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...DDV
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...HENTZ





000
FXUS63 KMKX 151513 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1013 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.UPDATE...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL CONTINUE INTO LATE MORNING.
WITH THE SUNSHINE AND THE COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE THOUGH...CUMULUS
SHOULD BECOME BROKEN QUICKLY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. TEMPS
ALOFT WILL WARM TODAY...BUT 925 MB TEMPS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO
REACH THE -3C TO -5C RANGE BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST HIGHS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S THUS STILL SEEM REASONABLE.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN ISSUE TODAY WILL BE TIMING WIND SHIFTS NEAR
LAKE MICHIGAN...ESPECIALLY FROM MILWAUKEE SOUTHWARD. LATEST
MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST THAT WINDS MAY JUST BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE BY MID OR LATE AFTERNOON. THIS IS NOT TOO SURPRISING...AS
THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE DIFFERENCE IN WATER TEMPS AND AIR
TEMPS...SO NOT MUCH OF A DRIVING FORCE FOR A LAKE BREEZE.

MAIN CONCERN TOMORROW WILL BE WINDY CONDITIONS FROM MID MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SOUTH WINDS MAY GUST AS HIGH AS 30-40
KNOTS GIVEN LATEST MODELS...WITH SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
POSSIBLE IN THE EVENING AS SURFACE WINDS DECREASE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014/

SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

SHORT TERM MODELS SHOWING HIGHS PRESSURE SLIDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY. THIS WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER TO THE AREA. MAIN
500 MB TROUGH SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. AREA FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOWING WEAK INSTABILITY IN THE 800 MB TO 700 MB LAYER
DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON...HIGHER IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES.

THIS SHOULD LEAD TO BROKEN CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE EASTERN
TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA...WITH MORE SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT IN THE FAR
WESTERN COUNTIES. 925 MB TEMPERATURES SUGGEST COOL HIGHS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 30S TODAY. LAKE BREEZE SHOULD DEVELOP LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON AROUND AND SOUTH OF MILWAUKEE...LOWERING TEMPERATURES
THERE.

STRONG 850 MB WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURS ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT...AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS
WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA. SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE AS WELL. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S...WITH AN INVERSION JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

THE LEADING EDGE OF THE 850MB LOW LEVEL JET WILL QUICKLY PUSH INTO
CENTRAL/NORTHERN WI BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. ELEVATED WARM AIR ADVECTION
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY FROM THE DELLS TO SHEBOYGAN IF THEY
BECOME CONVECTIVE IN NATURE. OTHERWISE...DRY AIR FROM THE SURFACE TO
8KFT WILL PREVENT ANY PRECIP ALOFT FROM REACHING THE GROUND.
THICKNESS AND 850MB TEMPS ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS EARLY WED
MORNING. EXPECT A WINDY DAY WITH GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AND TEMPERATURES
RISING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S INLAND.

THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW TRACKING FROM IOWA TO UPPER MICHIGAN WED
NIGHT WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHEAST WI WED NIGHT AND
COULD BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. THE GFS IS FASTEST AND
THE ECMWF IS SLOWEST. THAT SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
RETREAT BACK INTO SOUTHEAST WI /OR POSSIBLY IL-SOUTHERN MI WITH THE
GFS/ AND HANG UP THERE THROUGH FRIDAY DUE TO A SLOW MOVING UPPER
TROUGH. THE NAM AND ECMWF REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING
ALONG THIS STATIONARY BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHEAST WI THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY.

LONG TERM...

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL FINALLY PUSH THAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OUT OF THE REGION BY FRIDAY NIGHT. COLD AIR WILL DROP INTO SOUTHERN
WI ONCE AGAIN FRI NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY
WEATHER SATURDAY.

SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

AT THIS TIME...IT IS NOT LOOKING LIKE ESPECIALLY NICE WEATHER FOR
NEXT SUNDAY. A MID LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH THE CENTER OF
THE COUNTRY WILL LIKELY LEAD TO AN EASTERLY BREEZE WITH OVERCAST
SKIES AND RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN WI THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...THERE
IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AND THE FORECAST MAY CHANGE.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS TAF SITES. HIGH
PRESSURE PASSING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA TODAY WILL BRING QUIET
WEATHER. EXPECT BROKEN DIURNAL CUMULUS TO DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING
AND AFTERNOON...WITH MORE OVERCAST MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING EAST INTO
THE AREA TONIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BACK WEST TODAY...WITH A LAKE
BREEZE BRINGING EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS AT MILWAUKEE AND KENOSHA BY
21Z TUESDAY. WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT SOUTHEAST TUESDAY
NIGHT...GRADUALLY INCREASING IN MAGNITUDE.

MARINE...

CANCELLED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EARLY...AS WINDS NEAR THE SHORE HAVE
DROPPED BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. WINDS AND WAVES WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TODAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

LOW PRESSURE PASSING NORTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WILL BRING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT TO THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING
GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS ON WEDNESDAY...BECOMING SOUTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HIGH WAVES WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY...PERHAPS LINGERING INTO THURSDAY.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

HYDROLOGY...

THE HEAVY RAINFALL FROM OVER THE WEEKEND WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
SEVERAL AREA RIVERS OVER BANKFULL AND FLOOD STAGE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. FIVE SITES ARE ALREADY OVER FLOOD STAGE...AND MORE MAY
OCCUR IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS. REFER TO OUR LOCAL AHPS PAGE FOR MORE
DETAILED INFORMATION ON AREA RIVER STAGES.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DDV
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...WOOD
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MRC





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