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000
FXUS63 KMKX 250327
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1027 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.UPDATE...LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND ASSOCIATED STRATUS
CLOUDS ARE MOVING ACROSS SRN WI AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SFC TROUGH
OVER ERN MN. THE SHOWERS HAVE MOVED OUT OVER LAKE MI WITH ONLY
THE POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY DRIZZLE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
THE SFC TROUGH PASSAGE WILL BRING CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST
BETWEEN 07Z-11Z. A MO SUNNY AND BREEZY...MILD DAY IS EXPECTED FOR
SAT.


&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL PREVAIL
INTO EARLY MORNING SAT. SKIES AND VSBYS WILL THEN CLEAR FROM WEST
TO EAST ACROSS SRN WI BETWEEN 07Z-11Z AS A SFC TROUGH PASSAGE WILL
BRING DRIER AIR TO THE REGION.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014/

TONIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
STRONG NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SHORTWAVE
ACTIVITY NOTED. IN THE LOW LEVELS...A LITTLE PUSH OF WAA NOTED WITH
SURFACE/850 TROUGH AXES COMING THROUGH. AT 6Z LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE
WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS SRN WI. WHILE OVERALL COLUMN MOISTURE IS QUITE
MEAGER...THE MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT ON GENERATING VERY
SPOTTY AND LIGHT PRECIP. BASED ON BUFKIT ANALYSIS THIS WILL BE
DRIZZLE IF ANYTHING. SREF CIG/VSBYS PROGS IN ADDITION TO NAM MOS
SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE LOW CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE NIGHT IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE SURFACE/850 FORCING. SO HAVE LOWERED THE
SMALL POPS EVEN FURTHER AND HAVE JUST MENTIONED DRIZZLE IN THE
SAME AREAS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.

SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...HIGH
TROUGH WELL TO THE EAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING CLOSER FROM
THE PLAINS. SO THE RESULTANT PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPECTED TO BRING BREEZY
WNW WINDS. PLENTY OF SUN EXPECTED WITH THE GOOD MIXING SO MILDER
TEMPERATURES ON THE WAY. 925 TEMPS OF 10-12C SUPPORTIVE OF HIGHS IN THE
MID 60S.

SHORT TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

NEUTRAL 850-700MB TEMP ADVECTION AS MID-UPPER RIDGE BUILDS TOWARD
REGION SAT NGT. WINDS DIMINISH SATURDAY EVENING WITH NARROW SURFACE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. CLEAR SKIES BUT WINDS WILL STAY
UP A BIT KEEPING LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 30S...BUT COULD GO LOWER IF
STRONGER NEAR-SURFACE INVERSION DEVELOPS.

SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

WARM ADVECTION SUNDAY WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS BEHIND SURFACE RIDGE FOR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS UPPER RIDGE BECOMES CENTERED OVER STATE BY
SUNDAY EVENING...AND LOWER MICHIGAN MONDAY MORNING. 570 DM HEIGHTS
ACROSS ALL OF THE CWA SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH 573 DM INTO THE FAR
SOUTH...WITH 850 MB AND 925 MB TEMPS RISING ABOUT 3C-4C BETWEEN 12Z
SUNDAY AND 00Z MONDAY. THIS YIELDS HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...BUT
SOUTHEAST WIND IN THE EAST WILL LIMIT HIGHS TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S
IN THE NE THIRD OF THE CWA.

SUNDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

SHORT WAVE EJECTS OUT AHEAD OF DEEPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PLAINS
SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW-LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE...700 MB OMEGA AND MID-
LEVEL MOISTURE MOVE INTO SW 1/2 OF THE CWA 00Z MON ON NOSE OF LOW-
LEVEL JET. ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES AND CONDENSATION PRESSURE
DEFICITS LOWER ACROSS CWA OVERNIGHT WITH LOW-LEVEL JET RISING TO 35
KTS TO 40 KTS BY 06Z...THEN DECREASING WITH PASSAGE OF SHORT WAVE
AND INITIAL 850 MB TROUGH AXIS BY 12Z MONDAY. WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH WHERE FORCING IS STRONGEST TAPERING TO SLIGHT
CHANCES IN THE FAR SW.

MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

WARMEST DAY IN A WHILE AS WARM SECTOR PUSHES INTO SRN WI...WITH 925
MB TEMPS OF 17C TO 18C MOVING INTO THE SRN HALF OF THE CWA YIELDING
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S....TAPERING OFF TO THE UPPER 60S NORTH WITH
LOWER 925 MB TEMPS AND MORE CLOUDS. IF THICKER CLOUDS LINGER IN THE
SOUTH...COULD LOWER HIGH TEMPS MORE THAN EXPECTED. DIFFERING TIMING
AND CONFIGURATION OF APPROACHING LOW AND COLD FRONT BRINGS SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS MONDAY AFTERNOON TO ALL BUT THE SOUTHEAST.

LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING. LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT BRING SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT. WHILE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES...ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO RAISE POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST TO LIKELY. SLOWER MODELS
KEEP LOW BLENDED POPS OVER THE CWA ALL DAY TUESDAY...BUT LOOKS AS IF
PCPN WILL BE GONE BY 18Z TUE. DRY WEDNESDAY...THEN SHORT WAVE ENERGY
MOVING ALONG IN NEARLY ZONAL FLOW BRINGS LOW POPS BACK WED NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...EXITING EAST THURSDAY NIGHT. AMPLIFYING RIDGE KEEPS
DRY WEATHER FOR END OF WEEK...BUT COOL TEMPS IN NW FLOW.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...LATE OCTOBER SUN STRONG ENOUGH TO MIX OUT THE
STRATUS DECK. WITH SURFACE/850 TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH TONIGHT
EXPECT POTENTIAL REDEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS AND SOME FOG AHEAD OF AND
WITHIN TROUGH AXIS. SREF CIG/VSBY TRENDS THIS PRETTY WELL. ANY
PRECIP WOULD BE SPOTTY DRIZZLE. TROUGH SHIFTS EAST ON SATURDAY WITH
MAIN STORY BEING SOME GUSTY WNW WINDS.

MARINE...WNW WINDS IN THE WAKE OF LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL LIKELY
HAVE SMALL CRAFT LEVEL GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH IT...SO HAVE HOISTED A
SMALL CRAFT FOR SATURDAY FROM 15-22Z. WITH THE WINDS BEING OFFSHORE
EXPECT THE HIGHER WAVES TO FOCUS MORE TOWARDS OPEN WATERS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 5 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR
     LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GEHRING
TONIGHT/SATURDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...COLLAR
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...REM





000
FXUS63 KMKX 242000
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
300 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.TONIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
STRONG NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SHORTWAVE
ACTIVITY NOTED. IN THE LOW LEVELS...A LITTLE PUSH OF WAA NOTED WITH
SURFACE/850 TROUGH AXES COMING THROUGH. AT 6Z LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE
WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS SRN WI. WHILE OVERALL COLUMN MOISTURE IS QUITE
MEAGER...THE MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT ON GENERATING VERY
SPOTTY AND LIGHT PRECIP. BASED ON BUFKIT ANALYSIS THIS WILL BE
DRIZZLE IF ANYTHING. SREF CIG/VSBYS PROGS IN ADDITION TO NAM MOS
SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE LOW CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE NIGHT IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE SURFACE/850 FORCING. SO HAVE LOWERED THE
SMALL POPS EVEN FURTHER AND HAVE JUST MENTIONED DRIZZLE IN THE
SAME AREAS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.

.SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...HIGH
TROUGH WELL TO THE EAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING CLOSER FROM
THE PLAINS. SO THE RESULTANT PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPECTED TO BRING BREEZY
WNW WINDS. PLENTY OF SUN EXPECTED WITH THE GOOD MIXING SO MILDER
TEMPERATURES ON THE WAY. 925 TEMPS OF 10-12C SUPPORTIVE OF HIGHS IN THE
MID 60S.

.SHORT TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

NEUTRAL 850-700MB TEMP ADVECTION AS MID-UPPER RIDGE BUILDS TOWARD
REGION SAT NGT. WINDS DIMINISH SATURDAY EVENING WITH NARROW SURFACE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. CLEAR SKIES BUT WINDS WILL STAY
UP A BIT KEEPING LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 30S...BUT COULD GO LOWER IF
STRONGER NEAR-SURFACE INVERSION DEVELOPS.

SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

WARM ADVECTION SUNDAY WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS BEHIND SURFACE RIDGE FOR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS UPPER RIDGE BECOMES CENTERED OVER STATE BY
SUNDAY EVENING...AND LOWER MICHIGAN MONDAY MORNING. 570 DM HEIGHTS
ACROSS ALL OF THE CWA SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH 573 DM INTO THE FAR
SOUTH...WITH 850 MB AND 925 MB TEMPS RISING ABOUT 3C-4C BETWEEN 12Z
SUNDAY AND 00Z MONDAY. THIS YIELDS HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...BUT
SOUTHEAST WIND IN THE EAST WILL LIMIT HIGHS TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S
IN THE NE THIRD OF THE CWA.

SUNDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

SHORT WAVE EJECTS OUT AHEAD OF DEEPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PLAINS
SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW-LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE...700 MB OMEGA AND MID-
LEVEL MOISTURE MOVE INTO SW 1/2 OF THE CWA 00Z MON ON NOSE OF LOW-
LEVEL JET. ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES AND CONDENSATION PRESSURE
DEFICITS LOWER ACROSS CWA OVERNIGHT WITH LOW-LEVEL JET RISING TO 35
KTS TO 40 KTS BY 06Z...THEN DECREASING WITH PASSAGE OF SHORT WAVE
AND INITIAL 850 MB TROUGH AXIS BY 12Z MONDAY. WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH WHERE FORCING IS STRONGEST TAPERING TO SLIGHT
CHANCES IN THE FAR SW.

MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

WARMEST DAY IN A WHILE AS WARM SECTOR PUSHES INTO SRN WI...WITH 925
MB TEMPS OF 17C TO 18C MOVING INTO THE SRN HALF OF THE CWA YIELDING
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S....TAPERING OFF TO THE UPPER 60S NORTH WITH
LOWER 925 MB TEMPS AND MORE CLOUDS. IF THICKER CLOUDS LINGER IN THE
SOUTH...COULD LOWER HIGH TEMPS MORE THAN EXPECTED. DIFFERING TIMING
AND CONFIGURATION OF APPROACHING LOW AND COLD FRONT BRINGS SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS MONDAY AFTERNOON TO ALL BUT THE SOUTHEAST.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING. LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT BRING SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT. WHILE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES...ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO RAISE POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST TO LIKELY. SLOWER MODELS
KEEP LOW BLENDED POPS OVER THE CWA ALL DAY TUESDAY...BUT LOOKS AS IF
PCPN WILL BE GONE BY 18Z TUE. DRY WEDNESDAY...THEN SHORT WAVE ENERGY
MOVING ALONG IN NEARLY ZONAL FLOW BRINGS LOW POPS BACK WED NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...EXITING EAST THURSDAY NIGHT. AMPLIFYING RIDGE KEEPS
DRY WEATHER FOR END OF WEEK...BUT COOL TEMPS IN NW FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...LATE OCTOBER SUN STRONG ENOUGH TO MIX OUT THE
STRATUS DECK. WITH SURFACE/850 TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH TONIGHT
EXPECT POTENTIAL REDEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS AND SOME FOG AHEAD OF AND
WITHIN TROUGH AXIS. SREF CIG/VSBY TRENDS THIS PRETTY WELL. ANY
PRECIP WOULD BE SPOTTY DRIZZLE. TROUGH SHIFTS EAST ON SATURDAY WITH
MAIN STORY BEING SOME GUSTY WNW WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...WNW WINDS IN THE WAKE OF LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL LIKELY
HAVE SMALL CRAFT LEVEL GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH IT...SO HAVE HOISTED A
SMALL CRAFT FOR SATURDAY FROM 15-22Z. WITH THE WINDS BEING OFFSHORE
EXPECT THE HIGHER WAVES TO FOCUS MORE TOWARDS OPEN WATERS.


&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 5 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR
     LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

TONIGHT/SATURDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...COLLAR
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...REM





000
FXUS63 KMKX 241540
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1040 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.UPDATE...WILL CONTINUE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF SC WI UNTIL
17Z. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASING A BIT INTO THE WESTERN
PART OF WI. DEW POINTS INCREASING A BIT BUT EXPECT SOUTH WINDS TO
HELP MIX THINGS UP TO WHERE THE ADVISORY CAN BE DROPPED. HOPEFULLY
ANOTHER EXTENSION WILL NOT BE NEEDED. MESO MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
LIGHT RAIN/DZ CHANCES SPREADING ACROSS SRN LATER THIS AFTN AND
THIS EVENING SO NO CHANGES TO THAT PART OF FORECAST.

PC

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...LIFR CIGS AND SOME VLIFR VSBYS IN SC WI EXPECTED
TO IMPROVE WITH TIME INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MEANWHILE LIFR CIGS
IN THE EAST EXPECTED TO LIFT SOMEWHAT AS WELL. PRESSURE GRADIENT
EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN UP A BIT AHEAD OF APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH.
MESO MODELS STILL SHOWING LIGHT PRECIP POTENTIAL FROM LATER THIS
AFTN INTO THE EVENING...THEN TROUGH PASSES AND MAIN STORY WILL
SHIFT TO INCREASING WNW WINDS FOR SATURDAY...BUT NO REAL CIG/VSBY
CONCERNS.

PC

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

LOW STRATUS AND AREAS OF FOG REMAIN TRAPPED UNDER A WEAK INVERSION
AND WEAK FLOW EARLY THIS MORNING. WILL CONTINUE THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY THROUGH MID MORNING FOR THE WESTERN CWA...TRIMMING IT BACK
BY A TIER OF COUNTIES.  WEB CAMS AND OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING VSBYS
AT MOST PLACES ARE AOA 1 MILE.  THERE IS SOME WEAK WIND FROM THE
WEST LIKELY KEEPING THINGS STIRRED UP ENOUGH. A TROF OF LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL INCREASE THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW EVEN MORE AND MAY MIX OUT THE LOW CLOUDS. THIS IS ALWAYS A
TOUGH CALL...ESPECIALLY THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH THE LOWERING SUN
ANGLE. THE THINKING AMONG THE SURROUNDING OFFICES IS THAT THESE
CLOUDS ARE LIKELY HERE TO STAY TODAY. EVEN IF THEY DO
CLEAR...THERE/S PLENTY OF HIGHER CLOUDS ABOVE IT. ALSO...ANY
CLEARING WOULD LIKELY BE SHORT LIVED AS WARM ADVECTION KICKS IN BY
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON... SPREADING MORE LOWER CLOUDS IN. THE SHORT
RANGE/HI-RES MODELS HAVE BEEN DEPICTING SOME VERY LIGHT QPF WITH
THIS WAA FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS. IT/S PERSISTENCE AND GENERAL
AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS IS ENOUGH TO INCLUDE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON WEST AND THEN ACROSS MAINLY
THE SOUTHERN CWA DURING THE EVENING. THINGS SHOULD DRY OUT AND
POSSIBLY SCOUR OUT WITH RESPECT TOWARD SUNRISE ON SATURDAY.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE THROUGH SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...BRINGING
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL AS UPPER RIDGING MOVES IN.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

STRONG TEMPERATURE AND MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. SHOULD SEE NEARLY STEADY TEMPS FOR THE FIRST PART OF
THE NIGHT...WITH SLOWLY WARMING CONDITIONS LIKELY LATER IN THE
NIGHT.

SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE THE LOW WILL ARE EXPECTED TO BRING
EVEN MILDER TEMPS MONDAY...WITH A PRETTY GOOD CHANCE AT SEEING 70
FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE THE BEGINNING OF THE MONTH IF THE CURRENT
MODEL TIMING HOLDS.

KEPT SOME POPS DURING THE DAY MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE AREA. CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS CONTINUES MONDAY
NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. KEPT SOME POPS TUESDAY
MORNING...BUT MODELS HAVE TRENDED FASTER WITH THE FRONT...SO
TUESDAY MAY END UP BEING DRY.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

IT LOOKS DRY WEDNESDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE...WITH A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS THURSDAY AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH. TEMPS WILL LIKELY
BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WED AND THU.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

IFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE MORNING AS THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW INCREASES AND HELPS TO MIX OUT THE MOISTURE. MOST AREAS
SHOULD LIFT TO MVFR BY MID MORNING...BUT THERE IS PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER WE CAN CLEAR OUT THESE LOW CLOUDS
COMPLETELY.  GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR AND LOWER SUN ANGLE...THIS GETS
TOUGHER AND TOUGHER.  THE CURRENT TAFS...BEFORE 12Z...SHOW CLEARING
COMING IN...BUT WE MAY HAVE TO KEEP IT MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH THE NEW
TAFS AT 12Z.

WARM AIR ADVECTION PUSHES IN BY EVENING AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WE COULD SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES FROM THIS AND THIS WOULD ONLY REINFORCE THE LOWER CIGS
LIKELY TO BE IN PLACE. CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE TOWARD SUNRISE ON
SATURDAY.  WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 10KTS.

MARINE...

A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD DEVELOP ON SATURDAY AND LINGER INTO
SATURDAY EVENING...BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE WELL NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION...AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

BRISK WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE LIKELY DURING THIS TIME...WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.
HIGH WAVES SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE OPEN WATERS...DUE TO THE OFFSHORE
NATURE OF THE WINDS.

BRISK WINDS MAY BRING HIGH WAVES TO THE NEARSHORE WATERS ON TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR WIZ046-047-056-057-
     062-063-067-068.

LM...NONE.
&&

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DAVIS
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...DDV





000
FXUS63 KMKX 240842
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
342 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

LOW STRATUS AND AREAS OF FOG REMAIN TRAPPED UNDER A WEAK INVERSION
AND WEAK FLOW EARLY THIS MORNING. WILL CONTINUE THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY THROUGH MID MORNING FOR THE WESTERN CWA...TRIMMING IT BACK
BY A TIER OF COUNTIES.  WEB CAMS AND OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING VSBYS
AT MOST PLACES ARE AOA 1 MILE.  THERE IS SOME WEAK WIND FROM THE
WEST LIKELY KEEPING THINGS STIRRED UP ENOUGH. A TROF OF LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL INCREASE THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW EVEN MORE AND MAY MIX OUT THE LOW CLOUDS. THIS IS ALWAYS A
TOUGH CALL...ESPECIALLY THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH THE LOWERING SUN
ANGLE. THE THINKING AMONG THE SURROUNDING OFFICES IS THAT THESE
CLOUDS ARE LIKELY HERE TO STAY TODAY. EVEN IF THEY DO
CLEAR...THERE/S PLENTY OF HIGHER CLOUDS ABOVE IT. ALSO...ANY
CLEARING WOULD LIKELY BE SHORT LIVED AS WARM ADVECTION KICKS IN BY
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON... SPREADING MORE LOWER CLOUDS IN. THE SHORT
RANGE/HI-RES MODELS HAVE BEEN DEPICTING SOME VERY LIGHT QPF WITH
THIS WAA FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS. IT/S PERSISTENCE AND GENERAL
AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS IS ENOUGH TO INCLUDE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON WEST AND THEN ACROSS MAINLY
THE SOUTHERN CWA DURING THE EVENING. THINGS SHOULD DRY OUT AND
POSSIBLY SCOUR OUT WITH RESPECT TOWARD SUNRISE ON SATURDAY.


.SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE THROUGH SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...BRINGING
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL AS UPPER RIDGING MOVES IN.

.SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

STRONG TEMPERATURE AND MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. SHOULD SEE NEARLY STEADY TEMPS FOR THE FIRST PART OF
THE NIGHT...WITH SLOWLY WARMING CONDITIONS LIKELY LATER IN THE
NIGHT.

SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE THE LOW WILL ARE EXPECTED TO BRING
EVEN MILDER TEMPS MONDAY...WITH A PRETTY GOOD CHANCE AT SEEING 70
FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE THE BEGINNING OF THE MONTH IF THE CURRENT
MODEL TIMING HOLDS.

KEPT SOME POPS DURING THE DAY MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE AREA. CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS CONTINUES MONDAY
NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. KEPT SOME POPS TUESDAY
MORNING...BUT MODELS HAVE TRENDED FASTER WITH THE FRONT...SO
TUESDAY MAY END UP BEING DRY.

.WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

IT LOOKS DRY WEDNESDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE...WITH A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS THURSDAY AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH. TEMPS WILL LIKELY
BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WED AND THU.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

IFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE MORNING AS THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW INCREASES AND HELPS TO MIX OUT THE MOISTURE. MOST AREAS
SHOULD LIFT TO MVFR BY MID MORNING...BUT THERE IS PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER WE CAN CLEAR OUT THESE LOW CLOUDS
COMPLETELY.  GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR AND LOWER SUN ANGLE...THIS GETS
TOUGHER AND TOUGHER.  THE CURRENT TAFS...BEFORE 12Z...SHOW CLEARING
COMING IN...BUT WE MAY HAVE TO KEEP IT MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH THE NEW
TAFS AT 12Z.

WARM AIR ADVECTION PUSHES IN BY EVENING AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WE COULD SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES FROM THIS AND THIS WOULD ONLY REINFORCE THE LOWER CIGS
LIKELY TO BE IN PLACE. CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE TOWARD SUNRISE ON
SATURDAY.  WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 10KTS.

&&

.MARINE...

A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD DEVELOP ON SATURDAY AND LINGER INTO
SATURDAY EVENING...BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE WELL NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION...AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

BRISK WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE LIKELY DURING THIS TIME...WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.
HIGH WAVES SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE OPEN WATERS...DUE TO THE OFFSHORE
NATURE OF THE WINDS.

BRISK WINDS MAY BRING HIGH WAVES TO THE NEARSHORE WATERS ON TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ046-056-
     062-067.

LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DAVIS
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...DDV





000
FXUS63 KMKX 240227
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
927 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...PUSHED UP START TIME OF DENSE FOG ADVISORY AS AREAS OF
DENSE FOG HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP OVER FAR WESTERN CWA. ALSO
INCLUDED DANE AND GREEN COUNTIES IN DENSE FOG ADVISORY AS LATE
NIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL BE LIGHTEST IN THESE AREAS AS
WELL. OTHERWISE EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP DURING THE NIGHT FARTHER
EAST WITH THE LIKLIHOOD FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG INTO THE REST OF
SOUTH CENTRAL AND POSSIBLY SOUTHEAST WI.

STRATUS LIKELY TO PERSIST IN THE EAST AS WELL WITH SLIGHTLY MORE
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING ADDING TO THE UNCERTAINTY WRT DENSE FOG.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO LOWER
TO IFR AND POTENTIALLY LOWER DUE TO LIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AND
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. LOW CIGS/VSBYS LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO
FRI MRNG BEFORE SLOWLY LIFTING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

SHORT TERM...
AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE REST OF
THE AREA...EXITING THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS
WAS BEING DRIVEN BY A 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING INTO THE AREA
FROM THE WEST.

AREA OF LOW STRATUS CLOUDS AND FOG WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST THIS EVENING...AND SHOULD LINGER LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. AREA FORECASTS SOUNDINGS SHOWING A MOIST AIRMASS
LINGERING LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...WITH LIGHT WINDS LATER
TONIGHT.

THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE IN THE FAR WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES. THIS SHOULD HELP DENSE FOG DEVELOP HERE LATER TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING...WHERE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED. SOME
DENSE FOG MAY OCCUR FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA...SO
THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED BY LATER SHIFTS. THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED EASTWARD LATER ON.

THE FOG AND LOW STRATUS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY LATE MORNING ON
FRIDAY...WITH SOME SUNSHINE THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR HIGHS TO REACH INTO THE MID 60S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.

FRIDAY NIGHT- CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

NAM IS SHOWING LIGHT QPF WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF A SURFACE
TROUGH. OTHER MODELS HINT AT QPF. NAM SOUNDINGS INDICATE DRIZZLE
POSSIBLE WITH MOIST PROFILES UP TO 2-4K FT. LOOKS MARGINAL SO KEPT
FORECAST DRY..

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...HIGH

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO ILLINOIS.
STRONG NW FLOW WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS...DRY AIR AND CLEAR SKIES.
EXPECT SURFACE TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S SAT AND UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S SUN. 500MB RIDGE AXIS PASSES OVERHEAD ON SUN BEFORE FLOW
TURNS SW.

LONG TERM...
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...LOW

STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF ORGANIZING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS
WARM MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. LOW
PRESSURE EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM THE NORTH-CENTRAL PLAINS INTO
NORTHERN WI BY TUES MORNING. PRECIP STARTS MON MORNING WITH A BREAK
LIKELY MIDDAY. GFS INDICATES EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PRECIP WINDING
DOWN TUES MORNING. ECMWF IS SLOWER AND DELAYS THE SECOND ROUND OF
RAIN UNTIL TUES AND LINGERS IT INTO THE EVENING HOURS. HENCE
SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING OF PRECIP BUT EXPECT A PERIOD OF
MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS AT SOME POINT WITH THIS SYSTEM. KEPT CHANCE OF
THUNDER. COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING OR
AFTERNOON PER THE SLOWER ECMWF.

WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT FOR DRY CONDITIONS WED. LATEST ECMWF
HINTING AT SOME LIGHT PRECIP FOR THURSDAY.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...
AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS WITH A FEW MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO
PUSH EAST THROUGH THE EASTERN TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME.

FOG WITH CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES DOWN TO ALTERNATE MINIMUMS WILL
DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE EVENING...AND LINGER THROUGH THE REST OF
TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. LOW LEVELS REMAINING MOIST WITH
LIGHT WINDS WILL HELP THE FOG AND LOW STRATUS.

DENSE FOG WITH VISIBILITIES OF 1/4 MILE OR LESS ARE POSSIBLE AT
MADISON AND THE EASTERN SITES BETWEEN 01Z AND 15Z FRIDAY...BUT LEFT
AT 1 MILE IN TAFS FOR NOW DUE TO SOME UNCERTAINTY. LATER SHIFTS WILL
NEED TO MONITOR POTENTIAL.

LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY...WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN
CUMULUS CLOUDS BY THE AFTERNOON.

MARINE...
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD DEVELOP ON SATURDAY AND LINGER INTO
SATURDAY EVENING...BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE WELL NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION...AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

BRISK WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE LIKELY DURING THIS TIME...WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.
HIGH WAVES SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE OPEN WATERS...DUE TO THE OFFSHORE
NATURE OF THE WINDS.

BRISK WINDS MAY BRING HIGH WAVES TO THE NEARSHORE WATERS ON
MONDAY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR WIZ046-047-056-057-
     062-063-067-068.

LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MBK





000
FXUS63 KMKX 240227
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
927 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...PUSHED UP START TIME OF DENSE FOG ADVISORY AS AREAS OF
DENSE FOG HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP OVER FAR WESTERN CWA. ALSO
INCLUDED DANE AND GREEN COUNTIES IN DENSE FOG ADVISORY AS LATE
NIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL BE LIGHTEST IN THESE AREAS AS
WELL. OTHERWISE EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP DURING THE NIGHT FARTHER
EAST WITH THE LIKLIHOOD FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG INTO THE REST OF
SOUTH CENTRAL AND POSSIBLY SOUTHEAST WI.

STRATUS LIKELY TO PERSIST IN THE EAST AS WELL WITH SLIGHTLY MORE
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING ADDING TO THE UNCERTAINTY WRT DENSE FOG.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO LOWER
TO IFR AND POTENTIALLY LOWER DUE TO LIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AND
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. LOW CIGS/VSBYS LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO
FRI MRNG BEFORE SLOWLY LIFTING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

SHORT TERM...
AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE REST OF
THE AREA...EXITING THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS
WAS BEING DRIVEN BY A 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING INTO THE AREA
FROM THE WEST.

AREA OF LOW STRATUS CLOUDS AND FOG WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST THIS EVENING...AND SHOULD LINGER LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. AREA FORECASTS SOUNDINGS SHOWING A MOIST AIRMASS
LINGERING LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...WITH LIGHT WINDS LATER
TONIGHT.

THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE IN THE FAR WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES. THIS SHOULD HELP DENSE FOG DEVELOP HERE LATER TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING...WHERE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED. SOME
DENSE FOG MAY OCCUR FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA...SO
THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED BY LATER SHIFTS. THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED EASTWARD LATER ON.

THE FOG AND LOW STRATUS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY LATE MORNING ON
FRIDAY...WITH SOME SUNSHINE THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR HIGHS TO REACH INTO THE MID 60S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.

FRIDAY NIGHT- CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

NAM IS SHOWING LIGHT QPF WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF A SURFACE
TROUGH. OTHER MODELS HINT AT QPF. NAM SOUNDINGS INDICATE DRIZZLE
POSSIBLE WITH MOIST PROFILES UP TO 2-4K FT. LOOKS MARGINAL SO KEPT
FORECAST DRY..

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...HIGH

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO ILLINOIS.
STRONG NW FLOW WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS...DRY AIR AND CLEAR SKIES.
EXPECT SURFACE TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S SAT AND UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S SUN. 500MB RIDGE AXIS PASSES OVERHEAD ON SUN BEFORE FLOW
TURNS SW.

LONG TERM...
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...LOW

STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF ORGANIZING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS
WARM MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. LOW
PRESSURE EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM THE NORTH-CENTRAL PLAINS INTO
NORTHERN WI BY TUES MORNING. PRECIP STARTS MON MORNING WITH A BREAK
LIKELY MIDDAY. GFS INDICATES EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PRECIP WINDING
DOWN TUES MORNING. ECMWF IS SLOWER AND DELAYS THE SECOND ROUND OF
RAIN UNTIL TUES AND LINGERS IT INTO THE EVENING HOURS. HENCE
SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING OF PRECIP BUT EXPECT A PERIOD OF
MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS AT SOME POINT WITH THIS SYSTEM. KEPT CHANCE OF
THUNDER. COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING OR
AFTERNOON PER THE SLOWER ECMWF.

WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT FOR DRY CONDITIONS WED. LATEST ECMWF
HINTING AT SOME LIGHT PRECIP FOR THURSDAY.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...
AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS WITH A FEW MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO
PUSH EAST THROUGH THE EASTERN TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME.

FOG WITH CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES DOWN TO ALTERNATE MINIMUMS WILL
DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE EVENING...AND LINGER THROUGH THE REST OF
TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. LOW LEVELS REMAINING MOIST WITH
LIGHT WINDS WILL HELP THE FOG AND LOW STRATUS.

DENSE FOG WITH VISIBILITIES OF 1/4 MILE OR LESS ARE POSSIBLE AT
MADISON AND THE EASTERN SITES BETWEEN 01Z AND 15Z FRIDAY...BUT LEFT
AT 1 MILE IN TAFS FOR NOW DUE TO SOME UNCERTAINTY. LATER SHIFTS WILL
NEED TO MONITOR POTENTIAL.

LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY...WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN
CUMULUS CLOUDS BY THE AFTERNOON.

MARINE...
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD DEVELOP ON SATURDAY AND LINGER INTO
SATURDAY EVENING...BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE WELL NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION...AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

BRISK WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE LIKELY DURING THIS TIME...WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.
HIGH WAVES SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE OPEN WATERS...DUE TO THE OFFSHORE
NATURE OF THE WINDS.

BRISK WINDS MAY BRING HIGH WAVES TO THE NEARSHORE WATERS ON
MONDAY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR WIZ046-047-056-057-
     062-063-067-068.

LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MBK





000
FXUS63 KMKX 232056
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
356 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...
AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE REST OF
THE AREA...EXITING THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS
WAS BEING DRIVEN BY A 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING INTO THE AREA
FROM THE WEST.

AREA OF LOW STRATUS CLOUDS AND FOG WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST THIS EVENING...AND SHOULD LINGER LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. AREA FORECASTS SOUNDINGS SHOWING A MOIST AIRMASS
LINGERING LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...WITH LIGHT WINDS LATER
TONIGHT.

THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE IN THE FAR WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES. THIS SHOULD HELP DENSE FOG DEVELOP HERE LATER TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING...WHERE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED. SOME
DENSE FOG MAY OCCUR FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA...SO
THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED BY LATER SHIFTS. THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED EASTWARD LATER ON.

THE FOG AND LOW STRATUS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY LATE MORNING ON
FRIDAY...WITH SOME SUNSHINE THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR HIGHS TO REACH INTO THE MID 60S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.

.FRIDAY NIGHT- CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

NAM IS SHOWING LIGHT QPF WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF A SURFACE
TROUGH. OTHER MODELS HINT AT QPF. NAM SOUNDINGS INDICATE DRIZZLE
POSSIBLE WITH MOIST PROFILES UP TO 2-4K FT. LOOKS MARGINAL SO KEPT
FORECAST DRY..

.SATURDAY AND SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...HIGH

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO ILLINOIS.
STRONG NW FLOW WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS...DRY AIR AND CLEAR SKIES.
EXPECT SURFACE TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S SAT AND UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S SUN. 500MB RIDGE AXIS PASSES OVERHEAD ON SUN BEFORE FLOW
TURNS SW.

.LONG TERM...
.MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...LOW

STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF ORGANIZING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS
WARM MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. LOW
PRESSURE EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM THE NORTH-CENTRAL PLAINS INTO
NORTHERN WI BY TUES MORNING. PRECIP STARTS MON MORNING WITH A BREAK
LIKELY MIDDAY. GFS INDICATES EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PRECIP WINDING
DOWN TUES MORNING. ECMWF IS SLOWER AND DELAYS THE SECOND ROUND OF
RAIN UNTIL TUES AND LINGERS IT INTO THE EVENING HOURS. HENCE
SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING OF PRECIP BUT EXPECT A PERIOD OF
MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS AT SOME POINT WITH THIS SYSTEM. KEPT CHANCE OF
THUNDER. COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING OR
AFTERNOON PER THE SLOWER ECMWF.

.WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT FOR DRY CONDITIONS WED. LATEST ECMWF
HINTING AT SOME LIGHT PRECIP FOR THURSDAY.


&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...
AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS WITH A FEW MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO
PUSH EAST THROUGH THE EASTERN TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME.

FOG WITH CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES DOWN TO ALTERNATE MINIMUMS WILL
DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE EVENING...AND LINGER THROUGH THE REST OF
TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. LOW LEVELS REMAINING MOIST WITH
LIGHT WINDS WILL HELP THE FOG AND LOW STRATUS.

DENSE FOG WITH VISIBILITIES OF 1/4 MILE OR LESS ARE POSSIBLE AT
MADISON AND THE EASTERN SITES BETWEEN 01Z AND 15Z FRIDAY...BUT LEFT
AT 1 MILE IN TAFS FOR NOW DUE TO SOME UNCERTAINTY. LATER SHIFTS WILL
NEED TO MONITOR POTENTIAL.

LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY...WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN
CUMULUS CLOUDS BY THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD DEVELOP ON SATURDAY AND LINGER INTO
SATURDAY EVENING...BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE WELL NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION...AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

BRISK WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE LIKELY DURING THIS TIME...WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.
HIGH WAVES SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE OPEN WATERS...DUE TO THE OFFSHORE
NATURE OF THE WINDS.

BRISK WINDS MAY BRING HIGH WAVES TO THE NEARSHORE WATERS ON
MONDAY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR WIZ046-047-
     056-057-062-067.

LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TONIGHT/FRIDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...WOOD
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MARQUARDT





000
FXUS63 KMKX 231613 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1113 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...

AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA...IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LEAD 500 MB VORTICITY
MAXIMUM. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

THE MAIN 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS DRIVING THE SECOND AREA OF
RAIN SHOWERS IN NORTHEAST IOWA. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH
EAST INTO THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND THROUGH THE AREA
THIS EVENING. THUS...THE AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS TIME.

THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH OF THIS WILL HANG ON IN THE
FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES...AS DRY AIR IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE
AMOUNT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY. HRRR AND MOST OTHER MESOSCALE MODELS
CONTINUE TO PUSH THE RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THAT AREA.

WILL CONTINUE HIGH POPS IN THE WEST AND NORTH THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING...WITH POPS TRENDING LOWER TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST. CLOUDS
AND RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD LIMIT HIGHS TO THE MID 50S IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS WITH MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO
PUSH EAST THROUGH TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON...ENDING BY EARLY TO
MID EVENING IN THE EAST. MAY SEE SOME MVFR CEILINGS AS WELL.

SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL REACH THE
EASTERN SITES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...WITH DRY
AIR IN PLACE. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION PREVAILING SHOWERS FOR NOW
BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH TRENDS. SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY
EVENING...WITH AN OCCASIONAL GUST TO AROUND 15 KNOTS.

FOG WITH CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES DOWN TO ALTERNATE MINIMUMS MAY
DEVELOP AND LINGER THROUGH THE REST OF TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...AS LOW LEVELS REMAIN MOIST WITH LIGHT WINDS. SOME
UNCERTAINTY HERE BUT WILL TREND IN THAT DIRECTION IN TAFS. LIGHT
SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY...WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN
CUMULUS CLOUDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

DIDN/T NEED TO CHANCE MUCH FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. DECENT MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA TODAY WITH A
WEAKENING LOW LEVEL REFLECTION AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. A BAND OF SLOW
MOVING LIGHT SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH...LASTING ABOUT 4-6 HOURS.
LOOKS LIKE THINGS MAY HAVE SLOWED DOWN BY AN HOUR OR TWO. THE
HIGHEST POPS WILL REMAIN WEST OF MADISON AND THEN GRADUALLY LOWER
THEM AS THE SHOWERS MOVE EAST. THE OVERALL WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM
WITH TIME SHOULD BRING MAINLY CHCY POPS TO THE SOUTHEAST BY MID
AFTERNOON.

THE PRECIP MAY LINGERING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE EARLY
EVENING...OTHERWISE QUIET WEATHER RETURNS FOR TONIGHT WITH SLOW
CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
500 MILLIBAR RIDGING EXPANDS ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE
NAM AND TO A LESSER DEGREE...THE GFS AND ECMWF...SHOW A WEAKENING
VORTICITY AXIS MOVING THROUGH THIS DEVELOPING NORTHWEST
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. IN THE LOW LEVELS THERE IS A SURFACE TROUGH
THAT APPROACHES LATER FRIDAY AND MOVES ACROSS SRN WI FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE NAM HAS BEEN THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN GENERATING LIGHT QPF.
MEANWHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE HINTED AT SOME LIGHT QPF AS WELL
BUT VERY MINIMAL COVERAGE AND MOSTLY TO OUR SOUTH. THE NAM AND GFS
BUFKIT SHOWS MAINLY HIGH BASED AC WITH SOUNDINGS MOISTENING UP
CONSIDERABLY AOB 5K FEET FRIDAY NIGHT SUGGESTING AT LEAST THE
POTENTIAL FOR DRIZZLE. PER COLLAB WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES WILL
KEEP FORECAST DRY BUT NUDGE SILENT POPS UP JUST A SMIDGE.

SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW. VORT MAX/SHORTWAVE TREKS
FROM LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THE EASTERN LAKES WITH ANY INFLUENCE OF
THIS FEATURE REMAINING TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST. WEAK SHOT OF
CAA WITH SURFACE/850 WINDS FAIRLY GUSTY WITH TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT. SURFACE HIGH MOVES INTO WRN IA BY 00Z. 925 TEMPS DROP
FROM THE TEENS CELSIUS AT THE OUTSET BACK INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.
SO STILL LOOKING AT LOW TO MID 60S FOR HIGHS.

SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
500 MILLIBAR HEIGHTS RISE AS PLAINS UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS TOWARDS
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST FROM WI
AND IL INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. RETURN FLOW SLOW TO GET GOING WITH
WARMER 925 TEMPS TO OUR SOUTHWEST ACROSS IA...SO AIRMASS
MODIFICATION NOT GREAT. MOST GUIDANCE NUMBERS SUPPORTING MID 50S
TO LOW 60S FOR HIGHS.

SUNDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO THE EAST WITH UPPER FLOW BECOMING MORE
SOUTHWEST. WITH CYCLOGENESIS GETTING UNDERWAY IN THE PLAINS...850
LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES TOWARDS SRN WI WITH DECENT 850 MOISTURE
PUSH. MINIMAL ELEVATED CAPE SHOWN IN THE SOUNDINGS....THOUGH WITH
DECENT THETA-E ADVECTION AND FORCING FROM LLJ WILL GO AHEAD AND
MENTION THUNDER.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
ECMWF AND GFS BRING WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIRMASS INTO THE AREA
WITH A POTENTIAL LULL IN PRECIP AFTER INITIAL WAA EVENT MOVES
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB DEEP INTO THE
60S...POTENTIALLY HIGHER WITH SOME SUNSHINE. PRIMARY LOW LIFTS
NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH BOTH MODELS
SHOWING THE LOW TRACKING THROUGH WI. AT SOME POINT WILL PROBABLY
NEED TO BOOST POPS FOR THIS PERIOD AS SOME CONSENSUS STARTING TO
TAKE SHAPE.

WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
GFS HAS A FAIRLY BENIGN NW LOW LEVEL FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTED LOW TO THE NORTHEAST. MEANWHILE THE 12Z ECMWF HAD
DEVELOPED A SECONDARY LOW TO OUR SOUTH AND BROUGHT A SLUG OF
PRECIP IN HERE AS THE LOW TRACKED TO OUR SOUTHEAST. 00Z ECMWF HAS
COMPLETELY CONVERTED TO THE GFS IDEA OF A MORE PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM
WITH FRONTAL PRECIP SHIFTING WELL EAST AND NO SECONDARY
DEVELOPMENT WHATSOEVER. IN FACT SUPERBLEND IS SHOWING POPS FOR
THIS PERIOD AND IF THIS CONSENSUS PERSISTS POPS MAY BE EVENTUALLY
REMOVED WITH SURFACE HIGH FROM BOTH 00Z RUNS TAKING HOLD.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS TO THE TAF SITES TODAY. THE
SHOWERS SHOULD ONLY LAST ABOUT 4 TO 6 HOURS...REACHING KMSN BY MID
TO LATE MORNING AND KMKE/KUES/KENW BY EARLY AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS
ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE SHOWERS AS THE LOW LEVELS MOISTEN
UP AND WINDS REMAIN VERY LIGHT. CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE SLOWLY FROM
WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THAT TREND...GIVEN
THE OVERNIGHT TIMING AND CONTINUED LIGHT WINDS...IS RATHER LOW.

MARINE...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD DEVELOP ON SATURDAY AND
LINGER INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE WELL NORTHEAST
OF THE REGION...AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

BRISK WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE LIKELY DURING THIS TIME...WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.
HIGH WAVES SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE OPEN WATERS...DUE TO THE OFFSHORE
NATURE OF THE WINDS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WOOD
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DAVIS
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...COLLAR





000
FXUS63 KMKX 230804
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
304 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

DIDN/T NEED TO CHANCE MUCH FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. DECENT MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA TODAY WITH A
WEAKENING LOW LEVEL REFLECTION AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. A BAND OF SLOW
MOVING LIGHT SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH...LASTING ABOUT 4-6 HOURS.
LOOKS LIKE THINGS MAY HAVE SLOWED DOWN BY AN HOUR OR TWO. THE
HIGHEST POPS WILL REMAIN WEST OF MADISON AND THEN GRADUALLY LOWER
THEM AS THE SHOWERS MOVE EAST. THE OVERALL WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM
WITH TIME SHOULD BRING MAINLY CHCY POPS TO THE SOUTHEAST BY MID
AFTERNOON.

THE PRECIP MAY LINGERING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE EARLY
EVENING...OTHERWISE QUIET WEATHER RETURNS FOR TONIGHT WITH SLOW
CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST.

.FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
500 MILLIBAR RIDGING EXPANDS ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE
NAM AND TO A LESSER DEGREE...THE GFS AND ECMWF...SHOW A WEAKENING
VORTICITY AXIS MOVING THROUGH THIS DEVELOPING NORTHWEST
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. IN THE LOW LEVELS THERE IS A SURFACE TROUGH
THAT APPROACHES LATER FRIDAY AND MOVES ACROSS SRN WI FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE NAM HAS BEEN THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN GENERATING LIGHT QPF.
MEANWHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE HINTED AT SOME LIGHT QPF AS WELL
BUT VERY MINIMAL COVERAGE AND MOSTLY TO OUR SOUTH. THE NAM AND GFS
BUFKIT SHOWS MAINLY HIGH BASED AC WITH SOUNDINGS MOISTENING UP
CONSIDERABLY AOB 5K FEET FRIDAY NIGHT SUGGESTING AT LEAST THE
POTENTIAL FOR DRIZZLE. PER COLLAB WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES WILL
KEEP FORECAST DRY BUT NUDGE SILENT POPS UP JUST A SMIDGE.

.SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW. VORT MAX/SHORTWAVE TREKS
FROM LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THE EASTERN LAKES WITH ANY INFLUENCE OF
THIS FEATURE REMAINING TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST. WEAK SHOT OF
CAA WITH SURFACE/850 WINDS FAIRLY GUSTY WITH TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT. SURFACE HIGH MOVES INTO WRN IA BY 00Z. 925 TEMPS DROP
FROM THE TEENS CELSIUS AT THE OUTSET BACK INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.
SO STILL LOOKING AT LOW TO MID 60S FOR HIGHS.

.SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
500 MILLIBAR HEIGHTS RISE AS PLAINS UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS TOWARDS
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST FROM WI
AND IL INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. RETURN FLOW SLOW TO GET GOING WITH
WARMER 925 TEMPS TO OUR SOUTHWEST ACROSS IA...SO AIRMASS
MODIFICATION NOT GREAT. MOST GUIDANCE NUMBERS SUPPORTING MID 50S
TO LOW 60S FOR HIGHS.

.SUNDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO THE EAST WITH UPPER FLOW BECOMING MORE
SOUTHWEST. WITH CYCLOGENESIS GETTING UNDERWAY IN THE PLAINS...850
LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES TOWARDS SRN WI WITH DECENT 850 MOISTURE
PUSH. MINIMAL ELEVATED CAPE SHOWN IN THE SOUNDINGS....THOUGH WITH
DECENT THETA-E ADVECTION AND FORCING FROM LLJ WILL GO AHEAD AND
MENTION THUNDER.

.MONDAY AND TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
ECMWF AND GFS BRING WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIRMASS INTO THE AREA
WITH A POTENTIAL LULL IN PRECIP AFTER INITIAL WAA EVENT MOVES
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB DEEP INTO THE
60S...POTENTIALLY HIGHER WITH SOME SUNSHINE. PRIMARY LOW LIFTS
NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH BOTH MODELS
SHOWING THE LOW TRACKING THROUGH WI. AT SOME POINT WILL PROBABLY
NEED TO BOOST POPS FOR THIS PERIOD AS SOME CONSENSUS STARTING TO
TAKE SHAPE.

.WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
GFS HAS A FAIRLY BENIGN NW LOW LEVEL FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTED LOW TO THE NORTHEAST. MEANWHILE THE 12Z ECMWF HAD
DEVELOPED A SECONDARY LOW TO OUR SOUTH AND BROUGHT A SLUG OF
PRECIP IN HERE AS THE LOW TRACKED TO OUR SOUTHEAST. 00Z ECMWF HAS
COMPLETELY CONVERTED TO THE GFS IDEA OF A MORE PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM
WITH FRONTAL PRECIP SHIFTING WELL EAST AND NO SECONDARY
DEVELOPMENT WHATSOEVER. IN FACT SUPERBLEND IS SHOWING POPS FOR
THIS PERIOD AND IF THIS CONSENSUS PERSISTS POPS MAY BE EVENTUALLY
REMOVED WITH SURFACE HIGH FROM BOTH 00Z RUNS TAKING HOLD.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS TO THE TAF SITES TODAY. THE
SHOWERS SHOULD ONLY LAST ABOUT 4 TO 6 HOURS...REACHING KMSN BY MID
TO LATE MORNING AND KMKE/KUES/KENW BY EARLY AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS
ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE SHOWERS AS THE LOW LEVELS MOISTEN
UP AND WINDS REMAIN VERY LIGHT. CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE SLOWLY FROM
WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THAT TREND...GIVEN
THE OVERNIGHT TIMING AND CONTINUED LIGHT WINDS...IS RATHER LOW.

&&

.MARINE...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD DEVELOP ON SATURDAY AND
LINGER INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE WELL NORTHEAST
OF THE REGION...AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

BRISK WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE LIKELY DURING THIS TIME...WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.
HIGH WAVES SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE OPEN WATERS...DUE TO THE OFFSHORE
NATURE OF THE WINDS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DAVIS
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...COLLAR





000
FXUS63 KMKX 230804
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
304 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

DIDN/T NEED TO CHANCE MUCH FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. DECENT MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA TODAY WITH A
WEAKENING LOW LEVEL REFLECTION AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. A BAND OF SLOW
MOVING LIGHT SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH...LASTING ABOUT 4-6 HOURS.
LOOKS LIKE THINGS MAY HAVE SLOWED DOWN BY AN HOUR OR TWO. THE
HIGHEST POPS WILL REMAIN WEST OF MADISON AND THEN GRADUALLY LOWER
THEM AS THE SHOWERS MOVE EAST. THE OVERALL WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM
WITH TIME SHOULD BRING MAINLY CHCY POPS TO THE SOUTHEAST BY MID
AFTERNOON.

THE PRECIP MAY LINGERING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE EARLY
EVENING...OTHERWISE QUIET WEATHER RETURNS FOR TONIGHT WITH SLOW
CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST.

.FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
500 MILLIBAR RIDGING EXPANDS ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE
NAM AND TO A LESSER DEGREE...THE GFS AND ECMWF...SHOW A WEAKENING
VORTICITY AXIS MOVING THROUGH THIS DEVELOPING NORTHWEST
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. IN THE LOW LEVELS THERE IS A SURFACE TROUGH
THAT APPROACHES LATER FRIDAY AND MOVES ACROSS SRN WI FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE NAM HAS BEEN THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN GENERATING LIGHT QPF.
MEANWHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE HINTED AT SOME LIGHT QPF AS WELL
BUT VERY MINIMAL COVERAGE AND MOSTLY TO OUR SOUTH. THE NAM AND GFS
BUFKIT SHOWS MAINLY HIGH BASED AC WITH SOUNDINGS MOISTENING UP
CONSIDERABLY AOB 5K FEET FRIDAY NIGHT SUGGESTING AT LEAST THE
POTENTIAL FOR DRIZZLE. PER COLLAB WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES WILL
KEEP FORECAST DRY BUT NUDGE SILENT POPS UP JUST A SMIDGE.

.SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW. VORT MAX/SHORTWAVE TREKS
FROM LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THE EASTERN LAKES WITH ANY INFLUENCE OF
THIS FEATURE REMAINING TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST. WEAK SHOT OF
CAA WITH SURFACE/850 WINDS FAIRLY GUSTY WITH TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT. SURFACE HIGH MOVES INTO WRN IA BY 00Z. 925 TEMPS DROP
FROM THE TEENS CELSIUS AT THE OUTSET BACK INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.
SO STILL LOOKING AT LOW TO MID 60S FOR HIGHS.

.SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
500 MILLIBAR HEIGHTS RISE AS PLAINS UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS TOWARDS
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST FROM WI
AND IL INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. RETURN FLOW SLOW TO GET GOING WITH
WARMER 925 TEMPS TO OUR SOUTHWEST ACROSS IA...SO AIRMASS
MODIFICATION NOT GREAT. MOST GUIDANCE NUMBERS SUPPORTING MID 50S
TO LOW 60S FOR HIGHS.

.SUNDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO THE EAST WITH UPPER FLOW BECOMING MORE
SOUTHWEST. WITH CYCLOGENESIS GETTING UNDERWAY IN THE PLAINS...850
LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES TOWARDS SRN WI WITH DECENT 850 MOISTURE
PUSH. MINIMAL ELEVATED CAPE SHOWN IN THE SOUNDINGS....THOUGH WITH
DECENT THETA-E ADVECTION AND FORCING FROM LLJ WILL GO AHEAD AND
MENTION THUNDER.

.MONDAY AND TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
ECMWF AND GFS BRING WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIRMASS INTO THE AREA
WITH A POTENTIAL LULL IN PRECIP AFTER INITIAL WAA EVENT MOVES
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB DEEP INTO THE
60S...POTENTIALLY HIGHER WITH SOME SUNSHINE. PRIMARY LOW LIFTS
NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH BOTH MODELS
SHOWING THE LOW TRACKING THROUGH WI. AT SOME POINT WILL PROBABLY
NEED TO BOOST POPS FOR THIS PERIOD AS SOME CONSENSUS STARTING TO
TAKE SHAPE.

.WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
GFS HAS A FAIRLY BENIGN NW LOW LEVEL FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTED LOW TO THE NORTHEAST. MEANWHILE THE 12Z ECMWF HAD
DEVELOPED A SECONDARY LOW TO OUR SOUTH AND BROUGHT A SLUG OF
PRECIP IN HERE AS THE LOW TRACKED TO OUR SOUTHEAST. 00Z ECMWF HAS
COMPLETELY CONVERTED TO THE GFS IDEA OF A MORE PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM
WITH FRONTAL PRECIP SHIFTING WELL EAST AND NO SECONDARY
DEVELOPMENT WHATSOEVER. IN FACT SUPERBLEND IS SHOWING POPS FOR
THIS PERIOD AND IF THIS CONSENSUS PERSISTS POPS MAY BE EVENTUALLY
REMOVED WITH SURFACE HIGH FROM BOTH 00Z RUNS TAKING HOLD.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS TO THE TAF SITES TODAY. THE
SHOWERS SHOULD ONLY LAST ABOUT 4 TO 6 HOURS...REACHING KMSN BY MID
TO LATE MORNING AND KMKE/KUES/KENW BY EARLY AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS
ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE SHOWERS AS THE LOW LEVELS MOISTEN
UP AND WINDS REMAIN VERY LIGHT. CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE SLOWLY FROM
WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THAT TREND...GIVEN
THE OVERNIGHT TIMING AND CONTINUED LIGHT WINDS...IS RATHER LOW.

&&

.MARINE...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD DEVELOP ON SATURDAY AND
LINGER INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE WELL NORTHEAST
OF THE REGION...AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

BRISK WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE LIKELY DURING THIS TIME...WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.
HIGH WAVES SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE OPEN WATERS...DUE TO THE OFFSHORE
NATURE OF THE WINDS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DAVIS
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...COLLAR





000
FXUS63 KMKX 230222
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
922 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...WILL LOWER TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES IN THE EAST WHERE LIGHT
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S. ALSO WL ADD SOME PATCHY FOG. INCREASING
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING DURING THE NIGHT SHOULD PREVENT FOG FROM
BECOMING WIDESPREAD IN THE EAST.

POSSIBLE A FEW -SHRA MAY AFFECT WESTERN CWA LATER TONIGHT AS
WEAKENING LOW LEVEL JET PIVOTS NORTHEAST INTO WEST CENTRAL/CENTRAL
WI. HOWEVER BEST MID-LEVEL WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION AND
SYNOPTIC LIFT HOLDS OFF UNTIL AFTER 12Z. NO REASON TO ALTER THU
POPS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...LIGHT FOG MAY AFFECT KENW AND KUES LATER
TONIGHT DUE TO LINGERING HIGH SFC DEWPTS AND LIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS DO INCREASE LATER TONIGHT SO NOT
EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG TO LAST FOR VERY LONG. LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH PASSING ACROSS WI WILL BRING A PERIOD OF -SHRA TO TAF SITES
ON THURSDAY. CIGS MAY FALL TO MVFR FOR A PERIOD DURING AND AFTER
-SHRA DUE TO MOISTENING LOW LEVELS AND LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING INTO MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...AS DRY AIR REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. MIDDLE TO HIGH
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING.

LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTH TONIGHT AND SOUTHWEST ON
THURSDAY. LOWS SHOULD OCCUR AROUND 06Z TONIGHT...THEN REMAIN STEADY
OR SLOWLY RISE WITH MODEST WARM AIR ADVECTION. LOWS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S EAST...TO THE LOWER 40S FAR WEST ARE EXPECTED.

LEAD 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM WILL SHIFT INTO THE AREA THURSDAY
MORNING...WITH THE MAIN 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EAST INTO THE
AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. NAM/GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH SATURATING IN A RELATIVELY DEEP LAYER AS THE
SHORTWAVE MOVES IN.

THUS...AN AREA OF SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AREA AHEAD OF
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...MAINLY LATE THURSDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
KEPT LIKELY POPS FOR THE MOST PART DURING THIS TIME...AS MODELS HAVE
BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS WITH QPF AND UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION WITH THIS SYSTEM. MAY NEED TO RAISE POPS IN LATER
FORECASTS IF CONSISTENCY REMAINS. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE MID 50S IN
MOST OF THE AREA.

THURSDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...HIGH

500MB TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH EARLY IN THE EVENING DRYING OUT THE
MID AND UPPER LEVELS. RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD END IN THE EAST BY 3Z BUT
NAM SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. HAVE
PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG AS THE NAM KEEPS THE LOWEST 1800M MOIST
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.

LONG TERM...
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT- CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

WEAK SURFACE RIDGE BRIEFLY TAKES HOLD. 925MB TEMPS OF 12-14C YIELD
SURFACE TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WEST AND LOW 60S NEAR THE
LAKE. A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. NAM INDICATES
SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE WITH THE WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION BUT
WITH OVERALL WEAK FORCING WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...HIGH

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO ILLINOIS BY
MIDDAY SUNDAY AS 500MB RIDGE MOVES FROM THE WESTERN U.S. TO THE
CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. THERE IS STRONG LOW TO MID LEVEL COLD
AIR ADVECTION ON SATURDAY UNDER STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW WHICH WILL DRY
OUT THE ATMOSPHERE...HOWEVER THE 925MB TEMPS PROGGED AROUND 10C.
WEEKEND HIGHS LOOK TO BE IN THE LOW 60S.

MONDAY TO WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW

A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF ORGANIZING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
PUMP WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE REGION. THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THE 12Z RUNS ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA
MONDAY MORNING TO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN TUESDAY NIGHT. PRECIP CHANCES
START EARLY MONDAY MORNING OVER THE WESTERN CWA. THERE MAY BE A
BREAK IN PRECIP DURING THE DAY ESPECIALLY OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST
BEFORE PRECIP WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT PUSH THROUGH
OVERNIGHT OR TUESDAY MORNING. ECMWF IS SLOWER MOVING THE TROUGH
THROUGH. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO INDICATE A SECOND WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER ILLINOIS AND CONTINUES PRECIP INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING. GFS SHOWS PRECIP LINGERING THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...
LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR AS WELL.

LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH TONIGHT...THEN SOUTHWEST ON
THURSDAY...AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. VFR CLOUDS WILL MOVE
EAST INTO THE AREA AND GRADUALLY LOWER LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING.

EXPECT A BAND OF SHOWERS TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES. THESE CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES MAY LINGER THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY.

MARINE...
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD DEVELOP ON SATURDAY AND LINGER INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT...BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE WELL NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION...AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

BRISK WEST NORTHWEST WINDS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME...WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.
HIGH WAVES SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE OPEN WATERS...DUE TO THE OFFSHORE
NATURE OF THE WINDS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MBK





000
FXUS63 KMKX 222034
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
334 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...
.TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING INTO MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...AS DRY AIR REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. MIDDLE TO HIGH
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING.

LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTH TONIGHT AND SOUTHWEST ON
THURSDAY. LOWS SHOULD OCCUR AROUND 06Z TONIGHT...THEN REMAIN STEADY
OR SLOWLY RISE WITH MODEST WARM AIR ADVECTION. LOWS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S EAST...TO THE LOWER 40S FAR WEST ARE EXPECTED.

LEAD 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM WILL SHIFT INTO THE AREA THURSDAY
MORNING...WITH THE MAIN 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EAST INTO THE
AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. NAM/GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH SATURATING IN A RELATIVELY DEEP LAYER AS THE
SHORTWAVE MOVES IN.

THUS...AN AREA OF SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AREA AHEAD OF
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...MAINLY LATE THURSDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
KEPT LIKELY POPS FOR THE MOST PART DURING THIS TIME...AS MODELS HAVE
BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS WITH QPF AND UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION WITH THIS SYSTEM. MAY NEED TO RAISE POPS IN LATER
FORECASTS IF CONSISTENCY REMAINS. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE MID 50S IN
MOST OF THE AREA.

.THURSDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...HIGH

500MB TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH EARLY IN THE EVENING DRYING OUT THE
MID AND UPPER LEVELS. RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD END IN THE EAST BY 3Z BUT
NAM SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. HAVE
PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG AS THE NAM KEEPS THE LOWEST 1800M MOIST
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...
.FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT- CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

WEAK SURFACE RIDGE BRIEFLY TAKES HOLD. 925MB TEMPS OF 12-14C YIELD
SURFACE TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WEST AND LOW 60S NEAR THE
LAKE. A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. NAM INDICATES
SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE WITH THE WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION BUT
WITH OVERALL WEAK FORCING WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY.

.SATURDAY AND SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...HIGH

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO ILLINOIS BY
MIDDAY SUNDAY AS 500MB RIDGE MOVES FROM THE WESTERN U.S. TO THE
CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. THERE IS STRONG LOW TO MID LEVEL COLD
AIR ADVECTION ON SATURDAY UNDER STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW WHICH WILL DRY
OUT THE ATMOSPHERE...HOWEVER THE 925MB TEMPS PROGGED AROUND 10C.
WEEKEND HIGHS LOOK TO BE IN THE LOW 60S.

.MONDAY TO WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW

A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF ORGANIZING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
PUMP WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE REGION. THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THE 12Z RUNS ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA
MONDAY MORNING TO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN TUESDAY NIGHT. PRECIP CHANCES
START EARLY MONDAY MORNING OVER THE WESTERN CWA. THERE MAY BE A
BREAK IN PRECIP DURING THE DAY ESPECIALLY OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST
BEFORE PRECIP WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT PUSH THROUGH
OVERNIGHT OR TUESDAY MORNING. ECMWF IS SLOWER MOVING THE TROUGH
THROUGH. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO INDICATE A SECOND WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER ILLINOIS AND CONTINUES PRECIP INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING. GFS SHOWS PRECIP LINGERING THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...
LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR AS WELL.

LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH TONIGHT...THEN SOUTHWEST ON
THURSDAY...AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. VFR CLOUDS WILL MOVE
EAST INTO THE AREA AND GRADUALLY LOWER LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING.

EXPECT A BAND OF SHOWERS TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES. THESE CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES MAY LINGER THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD DEVELOP ON SATURDAY AND LINGER INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT...BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE WELL NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION...AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

BRISK WEST NORTHWEST WINDS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME...WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.
HIGH WAVES SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE OPEN WATERS...DUE TO THE OFFSHORE
NATURE OF THE WINDS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TONIGHT/THURSDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...WOOD
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MARQUARDT





000
FXUS63 KMKX 222034
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
334 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...
.TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING INTO MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...AS DRY AIR REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. MIDDLE TO HIGH
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING.

LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTH TONIGHT AND SOUTHWEST ON
THURSDAY. LOWS SHOULD OCCUR AROUND 06Z TONIGHT...THEN REMAIN STEADY
OR SLOWLY RISE WITH MODEST WARM AIR ADVECTION. LOWS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S EAST...TO THE LOWER 40S FAR WEST ARE EXPECTED.

LEAD 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM WILL SHIFT INTO THE AREA THURSDAY
MORNING...WITH THE MAIN 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EAST INTO THE
AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. NAM/GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH SATURATING IN A RELATIVELY DEEP LAYER AS THE
SHORTWAVE MOVES IN.

THUS...AN AREA OF SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AREA AHEAD OF
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...MAINLY LATE THURSDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
KEPT LIKELY POPS FOR THE MOST PART DURING THIS TIME...AS MODELS HAVE
BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS WITH QPF AND UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION WITH THIS SYSTEM. MAY NEED TO RAISE POPS IN LATER
FORECASTS IF CONSISTENCY REMAINS. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE MID 50S IN
MOST OF THE AREA.

.THURSDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...HIGH

500MB TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH EARLY IN THE EVENING DRYING OUT THE
MID AND UPPER LEVELS. RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD END IN THE EAST BY 3Z BUT
NAM SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. HAVE
PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG AS THE NAM KEEPS THE LOWEST 1800M MOIST
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...
.FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT- CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

WEAK SURFACE RIDGE BRIEFLY TAKES HOLD. 925MB TEMPS OF 12-14C YIELD
SURFACE TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WEST AND LOW 60S NEAR THE
LAKE. A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. NAM INDICATES
SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE WITH THE WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION BUT
WITH OVERALL WEAK FORCING WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY.

.SATURDAY AND SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...HIGH

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO ILLINOIS BY
MIDDAY SUNDAY AS 500MB RIDGE MOVES FROM THE WESTERN U.S. TO THE
CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. THERE IS STRONG LOW TO MID LEVEL COLD
AIR ADVECTION ON SATURDAY UNDER STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW WHICH WILL DRY
OUT THE ATMOSPHERE...HOWEVER THE 925MB TEMPS PROGGED AROUND 10C.
WEEKEND HIGHS LOOK TO BE IN THE LOW 60S.

.MONDAY TO WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW

A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF ORGANIZING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
PUMP WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE REGION. THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THE 12Z RUNS ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA
MONDAY MORNING TO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN TUESDAY NIGHT. PRECIP CHANCES
START EARLY MONDAY MORNING OVER THE WESTERN CWA. THERE MAY BE A
BREAK IN PRECIP DURING THE DAY ESPECIALLY OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST
BEFORE PRECIP WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT PUSH THROUGH
OVERNIGHT OR TUESDAY MORNING. ECMWF IS SLOWER MOVING THE TROUGH
THROUGH. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO INDICATE A SECOND WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER ILLINOIS AND CONTINUES PRECIP INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING. GFS SHOWS PRECIP LINGERING THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...
LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR AS WELL.

LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH TONIGHT...THEN SOUTHWEST ON
THURSDAY...AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. VFR CLOUDS WILL MOVE
EAST INTO THE AREA AND GRADUALLY LOWER LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING.

EXPECT A BAND OF SHOWERS TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES. THESE CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES MAY LINGER THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD DEVELOP ON SATURDAY AND LINGER INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT...BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE WELL NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION...AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

BRISK WEST NORTHWEST WINDS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME...WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.
HIGH WAVES SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE OPEN WATERS...DUE TO THE OFFSHORE
NATURE OF THE WINDS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TONIGHT/THURSDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...WOOD
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MARQUARDT





000
FXUS63 KMKX 221713 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1213 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...

AREA OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS CLOUDS CONTINUES TO LINGER
ACROSS THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES...REMNANTS FROM THE MORE OVERCAST
DECK FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING. CU RULE SUPPORTS THESE CLOUDS
LINGERING INTO THE AFTERNOON...SO ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS.

MAY SEE DIURNAL CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT FURTHER WEST BUT NOT
CONFIDENT DUE TO DRIER AIRMASS AND UNFAVORABLE CU RULE VALUES.
HIGHS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE LOWER 50S EAST WITH LIGHT ONSHORE
WINDS...TO THE UPPER 50S FAR WEST.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

MVFR CEILINGS WITH CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS
THE EASTERN TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON...DISSIPATING BY SUNSET.
MADISON MAY SEE SOME CUMULUS CLOUDS AS WELL...BUT NOT AS
CONFIDENT. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS
WELL...WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA.

LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH TONIGHT...THEN SOUTHWEST ON
THURSDAY. VFR CLOUDS WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE AREA AND GRADUALLY
LOWER LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. EXPECT A BAND OF
SHOWERS TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. THESE
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES MAY LINGER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST TODAY WHILE A WEAK TROF OF LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.  LOOK FOR ABUNDANT SUNSHINE TODAY
UNDER A VERY DRY AIRMASS.  THERE IS A VERY SMALL PATCH OF LOW
STRATUS THAT HAS SURVIVED SINCE YESTERDAY AND IT/S ROLLING WEST
ACROSS WALWORTH AND INTO ROCK COUNTY. I DON/T EXPECT IT TO SURVIVE
MUCH PAST SUNRISE GIVEN THE DRY COLUMN.  IT SHOULD FEEL A GOOD DEAL
WARMER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY WITH SUNSHINE...LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPS
ABOUT 5 DEGREES WARMER.

AFTER A CLEAR EVENING...LOOK FOR CLOUDS TO INCREASE RAPIDLY FROM THE
WEST AS THE TROF APPROACHES. THE MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN IS QUICK...BUT THE FORCING IS LAGGING BACK A BIT. WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING POPS INTO THE FAR WEST BETWEEN 09-12Z THU. TEMPS
WILL PROBABLY BOTTOM OUT AROUND MIDNIGHT...THEN HOLD STEADY OR RISE
A BIT AS THE CLOUDS ROLL IN...COUPLED WITH WEAK WARM ADVECTION.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
WEAKENING SURFACE TROUGH COMBINED WITH 850 TROUGH AND MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE STILL ON TRACK TO BRING A PERIOD OF SHRA ACROSS SRN WI.
MESO MODELS SHOW A FAIRLY BRIEF DURATION PRECIP EVENT WITH 3-4
HOURS OF PRECIP BEFORE WINDING DOWN. GFS AND ECMWF KEEP ERN CWA
MAINLY DRY THROUGH 18Z WHILE THE NAM IS QUICKER BRINGING PRECIP TO
THE LAKE MI SHORE. WILL LINGER POPS IN THE FAR EAST INTO THE
EVENING HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SOMEWHAT SLOWER ECMWF/GFS
SOLUTIONS. THE NAM SHOWS VERY LITTLE PRECIP AFTER 00Z.

FRIDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
MID LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW TAKES ON ANTICYCLONIC LOOK. ANOTHER
SURFACE/850 TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA. THE NAM IS THE ONLY MODEL
TO GENERATE LIGHT PRECIP WITH THE OTHER MODELS SHOWING A FAIRLY
DRY COLUMN. THE 925 TEMPS ARE PROGGD TO WARM INTO THE 11-13C
RANGE. SO BARRING ANY SURPRISE STRATUS THAT THE NAM IS LATCHING
ONTO...TEMPS SHOULD MAKE THE 60S AT INLAND LOCALES. CERTAINLY SOME
POTENTIAL FOR AN ONSHORE FLOW SO KEPT EASTERN AREAS COOLER.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
MID LEVEL RIDGING BUBBLES UP OVER THE WEEKEND. SURFACE HIGH
SLIDES ACROSS AND SHIFTS TO THE EAST FOR SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR A RETURN FLOW WARMUP. A BRIEF DROPOFF IN 925 TEMPS SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY 925 TEMPS BOUNCING BACK TO 8-12C FOR
SUNDAY. THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY WARMER. ANY PRECIP LOOKS TO REMAIN
WEST OF THE CWA IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO SOUTHERLY 850 LLJ.

SUNDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
LLJ TRANSLATES EASTWARD WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING WAA
DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF UNSETTLED TROUGH IN THE WESTERN U.S.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW
MODELS HAVE BEEN BOUNCING AROUND WITH TRACK OF SURFACE LOW. ECMWF
HAD TRENDED TOWARDS THE GFS AND NOW THE 00Z RUN HAS SHIFTED BACK
TO THE MORE NORTHWEST TRACK ACROSS MN. HOWEVER ECMWF NOW SHOWS A
PRIOR GFS IDEA OF DEVELOPING SECONDARY WAVE WITH EXTENSIVE FRONTAL
PRECIP ACROSS IL INTO SRN WI THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WHILE MODEL
DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST IT APPEARS MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT HAS THE
BETTER POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIEST AND MOST EXTENSIVE PRECIP. SEEING
ENOUGH ON THE LLJ/INSTAB FRONT TO AT LEAST PUT IN A MENTION OF
THUNDER AT THIS TIME FOR MON/MON NGT. ECMWF WITH THE SLOWER AND
SECONDARY LOW SUGGESTS TUESDAY ENDS UP ON THE WETTER SIDE WHILE
THE GFS SHOWS A QUIETER PATTERN WITH STRONGER NORTHERN LOW LIFTING
AWAY WITH BEST PRECIP CHANCES IN NRN WI. FOR NOW DID NOT ALTER THE
SUPERBLEND POPS GIVEN THE MODEL DIFFERENCES.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...AFTER SOME EARLY MORNING FOG BURNS OFF SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING...LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10KTS. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST
TO EAST LATER TONIGHT AS A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WOOD
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DAVIS
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...COLLAR





000
FXUS63 KMKX 221713 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1213 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...

AREA OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS CLOUDS CONTINUES TO LINGER
ACROSS THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES...REMNANTS FROM THE MORE OVERCAST
DECK FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING. CU RULE SUPPORTS THESE CLOUDS
LINGERING INTO THE AFTERNOON...SO ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS.

MAY SEE DIURNAL CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT FURTHER WEST BUT NOT
CONFIDENT DUE TO DRIER AIRMASS AND UNFAVORABLE CU RULE VALUES.
HIGHS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE LOWER 50S EAST WITH LIGHT ONSHORE
WINDS...TO THE UPPER 50S FAR WEST.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

MVFR CEILINGS WITH CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS
THE EASTERN TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON...DISSIPATING BY SUNSET.
MADISON MAY SEE SOME CUMULUS CLOUDS AS WELL...BUT NOT AS
CONFIDENT. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS
WELL...WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA.

LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH TONIGHT...THEN SOUTHWEST ON
THURSDAY. VFR CLOUDS WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE AREA AND GRADUALLY
LOWER LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. EXPECT A BAND OF
SHOWERS TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. THESE
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES MAY LINGER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST TODAY WHILE A WEAK TROF OF LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.  LOOK FOR ABUNDANT SUNSHINE TODAY
UNDER A VERY DRY AIRMASS.  THERE IS A VERY SMALL PATCH OF LOW
STRATUS THAT HAS SURVIVED SINCE YESTERDAY AND IT/S ROLLING WEST
ACROSS WALWORTH AND INTO ROCK COUNTY. I DON/T EXPECT IT TO SURVIVE
MUCH PAST SUNRISE GIVEN THE DRY COLUMN.  IT SHOULD FEEL A GOOD DEAL
WARMER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY WITH SUNSHINE...LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPS
ABOUT 5 DEGREES WARMER.

AFTER A CLEAR EVENING...LOOK FOR CLOUDS TO INCREASE RAPIDLY FROM THE
WEST AS THE TROF APPROACHES. THE MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN IS QUICK...BUT THE FORCING IS LAGGING BACK A BIT. WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING POPS INTO THE FAR WEST BETWEEN 09-12Z THU. TEMPS
WILL PROBABLY BOTTOM OUT AROUND MIDNIGHT...THEN HOLD STEADY OR RISE
A BIT AS THE CLOUDS ROLL IN...COUPLED WITH WEAK WARM ADVECTION.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
WEAKENING SURFACE TROUGH COMBINED WITH 850 TROUGH AND MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE STILL ON TRACK TO BRING A PERIOD OF SHRA ACROSS SRN WI.
MESO MODELS SHOW A FAIRLY BRIEF DURATION PRECIP EVENT WITH 3-4
HOURS OF PRECIP BEFORE WINDING DOWN. GFS AND ECMWF KEEP ERN CWA
MAINLY DRY THROUGH 18Z WHILE THE NAM IS QUICKER BRINGING PRECIP TO
THE LAKE MI SHORE. WILL LINGER POPS IN THE FAR EAST INTO THE
EVENING HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SOMEWHAT SLOWER ECMWF/GFS
SOLUTIONS. THE NAM SHOWS VERY LITTLE PRECIP AFTER 00Z.

FRIDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
MID LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW TAKES ON ANTICYCLONIC LOOK. ANOTHER
SURFACE/850 TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA. THE NAM IS THE ONLY MODEL
TO GENERATE LIGHT PRECIP WITH THE OTHER MODELS SHOWING A FAIRLY
DRY COLUMN. THE 925 TEMPS ARE PROGGD TO WARM INTO THE 11-13C
RANGE. SO BARRING ANY SURPRISE STRATUS THAT THE NAM IS LATCHING
ONTO...TEMPS SHOULD MAKE THE 60S AT INLAND LOCALES. CERTAINLY SOME
POTENTIAL FOR AN ONSHORE FLOW SO KEPT EASTERN AREAS COOLER.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
MID LEVEL RIDGING BUBBLES UP OVER THE WEEKEND. SURFACE HIGH
SLIDES ACROSS AND SHIFTS TO THE EAST FOR SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR A RETURN FLOW WARMUP. A BRIEF DROPOFF IN 925 TEMPS SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY 925 TEMPS BOUNCING BACK TO 8-12C FOR
SUNDAY. THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY WARMER. ANY PRECIP LOOKS TO REMAIN
WEST OF THE CWA IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO SOUTHERLY 850 LLJ.

SUNDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
LLJ TRANSLATES EASTWARD WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING WAA
DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF UNSETTLED TROUGH IN THE WESTERN U.S.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW
MODELS HAVE BEEN BOUNCING AROUND WITH TRACK OF SURFACE LOW. ECMWF
HAD TRENDED TOWARDS THE GFS AND NOW THE 00Z RUN HAS SHIFTED BACK
TO THE MORE NORTHWEST TRACK ACROSS MN. HOWEVER ECMWF NOW SHOWS A
PRIOR GFS IDEA OF DEVELOPING SECONDARY WAVE WITH EXTENSIVE FRONTAL
PRECIP ACROSS IL INTO SRN WI THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WHILE MODEL
DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST IT APPEARS MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT HAS THE
BETTER POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIEST AND MOST EXTENSIVE PRECIP. SEEING
ENOUGH ON THE LLJ/INSTAB FRONT TO AT LEAST PUT IN A MENTION OF
THUNDER AT THIS TIME FOR MON/MON NGT. ECMWF WITH THE SLOWER AND
SECONDARY LOW SUGGESTS TUESDAY ENDS UP ON THE WETTER SIDE WHILE
THE GFS SHOWS A QUIETER PATTERN WITH STRONGER NORTHERN LOW LIFTING
AWAY WITH BEST PRECIP CHANCES IN NRN WI. FOR NOW DID NOT ALTER THE
SUPERBLEND POPS GIVEN THE MODEL DIFFERENCES.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...AFTER SOME EARLY MORNING FOG BURNS OFF SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING...LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10KTS. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST
TO EAST LATER TONIGHT AS A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WOOD
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DAVIS
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...COLLAR





000
FXUS63 KMKX 220814
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
314 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST TODAY WHILE A WEAK TROF OF LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.  LOOK FOR ABUNDANT SUNSHINE TODAY
UNDER A VERY DRY AIRMASS.  THERE IS A VERY SMALL PATCH OF LOW
STRATUS THAT HAS SURVIVED SINCE YESTERDAY AND IT/S ROLLING WEST
ACROSS WALWORTH AND INTO ROCK COUNTY. I DON/T EXPECT IT TO SURVIVE
MUCH PAST SUNRISE GIVEN THE DRY COLUMN.  IT SHOULD FEEL A GOOD DEAL
WARMER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY WITH SUNSHINE...LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPS
ABOUT 5 DEGREES WARMER.

AFTER A CLEAR EVENING...LOOK FOR CLOUDS TO INCREASE RAPIDLY FROM THE
WEST AS THE TROF APPROACHES. THE MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN IS QUICK...BUT THE FORCING IS LAGGING BACK A BIT. WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING POPS INTO THE FAR WEST BETWEEN 09-12Z THU. TEMPS
WILL PROBABLY BOTTOM OUT AROUND MIDNIGHT...THEN HOLD STEADY OR RISE
A BIT AS THE CLOUDS ROLL IN...COUPLED WITH WEAK WARM ADVECTION.

.THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
WEAKENING SURFACE TROUGH COMBINED WITH 850 TROUGH AND MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE STILL ON TRACK TO BRING A PERIOD OF SHRA ACROSS SRN WI.
MESO MODELS SHOW A FAIRLY BRIEF DURATION PRECIP EVENT WITH 3-4
HOURS OF PRECIP BEFORE WINDING DOWN. GFS AND ECMWF KEEP ERN CWA
MAINLY DRY THROUGH 18Z WHILE THE NAM IS QUICKER BRINGING PRECIP TO
THE LAKE MI SHORE. WILL LINGER POPS IN THE FAR EAST INTO THE
EVENING HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SOMEWHAT SLOWER ECMWF/GFS
SOLUTIONS. THE NAM SHOWS VERY LITTLE PRECIP AFTER 00Z.

.FRIDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
MID LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW TAKES ON ANTICYCLONIC LOOK. ANOTHER
SURFACE/850 TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA. THE NAM IS THE ONLY MODEL
TO GENERATE LIGHT PRECIP WITH THE OTHER MODELS SHOWING A FAIRLY
DRY COLUMN. THE 925 TEMPS ARE PROGGD TO WARM INTO THE 11-13C
RANGE. SO BARRING ANY SURPRISE STRATUS THAT THE NAM IS LATCHING
ONTO...TEMPS SHOULD MAKE THE 60S AT INLAND LOCALES. CERTAINLY SOME
POTENTIAL FOR AN ONSHORE FLOW SO KEPT EASTERN AREAS COOLER.

.SATURDAY AND SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
MID LEVEL RIDGING BUBBLES UP OVER THE WEEKEND. SURFACE HIGH
SLIDES ACROSS AND SHIFTS TO THE EAST FOR SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR A RETURN FLOW WARMUP. A BRIEF DROPOFF IN 925 TEMPS SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY 925 TEMPS BOUNCING BACK TO 8-12C FOR
SUNDAY. THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY WARMER. ANY PRECIP LOOKS TO REMAIN
WEST OF THE CWA IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO SOUTHERLY 850 LLJ.

.SUNDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
LLJ TRANSLATES EASTWARD WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING WAA
DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF UNSETTLED TROUGH IN THE WESTERN U.S.

.MONDAY AND TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW
MODELS HAVE BEEN BOUNCING AROUND WITH TRACK OF SURFACE LOW. ECMWF
HAD TRENDED TOWARDS THE GFS AND NOW THE 00Z RUN HAS SHIFTED BACK
TO THE MORE NORTHWEST TRACK ACROSS MN. HOWEVER ECMWF NOW SHOWS A
PRIOR GFS IDEA OF DEVELOPING SECONDARY WAVE WITH EXTENSIVE FRONTAL
PRECIP ACROSS IL INTO SRN WI THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WHILE MODEL
DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST IT APPEARS MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT HAS THE
BETTER POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIEST AND MOST EXTENSIVE PRECIP. SEEING
ENOUGH ON THE LLJ/INSTAB FRONT TO AT LEAST PUT IN A MENTION OF
THUNDER AT THIS TIME FOR MON/MON NGT. ECMWF WITH THE SLOWER AND
SECONDARY LOW SUGGESTS TUESDAY ENDS UP ON THE WETTER SIDE WHILE
THE GFS SHOWS A QUIETER PATTERN WITH STRONGER NORTHERN LOW LIFTING
AWAY WITH BEST PRECIP CHANCES IN NRN WI. FOR NOW DID NOT ALTER THE
SUPERBLEND POPS GIVEN THE MODEL DIFFERENCES.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...AFTER SOME EARLY MORNING FOG BURNS OFF SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING...LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10KTS. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST
TO EAST LATER TONIGHT AS A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DAVIS
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...COLLAR





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