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000
FXUS63 KMKX 300243
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
943 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...


.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...AS SFC WINDS ARE BECOMING LIGHTER THIS
EVENING...LLWS IS POSSIBLE DUE TO A NWLY 30-40 KT LLJ ALOFT. THE
WINDS ALOFT WILL WEAKEN SUFFICIENTLY BY 06Z...THE BEGINNING OF THE
NEW TAF PERIOD. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL MON INTO MON
EVE. A BROKEN CLOUD DECK OF 7-9 KFT IS EXPECTED MON AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING WITH SMALL CHANCES OF VERY LIGHT RAIN...AS LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

A BATCH OF RAIN SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SECOND BATCH IS BEING DRIVEN BY A
SECONDARY 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM...SLIDING SOUTHEAST THROUGH
MINNESOTA. THE SHOWERS SHOULD EXIT THE EAST BY EARLY THIS EVENING.

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AREA INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING...SHIFTING THE GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS TO THE WEST IN ITS
WAKE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN
TONIGHT...ALLOWING THE GUSTS TO SUBSIDE SOON AFTER MIDNIGHT.

ANY LINGERING LOW CLOUDS INTO THE EARLY EVENING WILL GRADUALLY MOVE
OUT OF THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD DROP
INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S...PERHAPS EVEN COLDER IF WINDS
WEAKEN ENOUGH LATER TONIGHT.

MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTING EAST INTO THE REGION DURING THE MORNING. GFS/ECMWF ARE
SHOWING LIGHT QPF DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON...AS A WARM FRONT
DEVELOPS JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA. THE CANADIAN MODEL IS LESS
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE QPF...AND THE NAM IS DRY.

ALL MODELS ARE SHOWING A 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM SLIDING SOUTHEAST
INTO WISCONSIN DURING THE LATER PORTION OF THE DAY. THERE IS SOME
FOCUSED WARM AIR ADVECTION IN THE AREA...WITH SOME DECENT
FRONTOGENESIS RESPONSE ON THE GFS. THE NAM IS MUCH WEAKER. AREA
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING SOME SATURATION ABOVE 5000 FEET ABOVE
GROUND LEVEL...DRY BELOW IT.

SOME UNCERTAINTY HERE...SO WILL GO WITH LOWER END POPS FOR LIGHT
RAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
AREA. HIGHS WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD REACH INTO THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 50S.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

A JET MAX OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
TUESDAY IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW...AS A 250 MB UPPER RIDGE MOVES
INTO THE DAKOTAS. THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE INCREASES MONDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUES IN THE MORNING OVER THE SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY.
850/700 MB WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURS MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE COOLING
TUESDAY AT 850 MB...AFTER THE LOW/MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OFF.
WEAK 700 MB UPWARD MOTION OCCURS EARLY MONDAY EVENING BEFORE
INCREASING TO MODERATE VALUES MAINLY FROM NORTH OF MILWAUKEE AND
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. 700 MB RH IS NEARLY SATURATED
MONDAY EVENING BEFORE STRONG DRYING FROM THE WEST OCCURS LATE. 850
MB LAYERS ARE DRY UNTIL SOME MOISTENING OCCURS FROM THE NORTH
TUESDAY BRINGING A POTENTIAL BAND OF SHALLOW STRATOCUMULUS.
HOWEVER WITH MIXING THIS MAY STAY SCATTERED.

THE GFS IS DRY MONDAY EVENING BUT THE ECMWF BRINGS PRECIPITATION
TO ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHWEST AREAS...WITH THE NAM MAINLY DRY
EXCEPT NORTH TOWARD SHEBOYGAN. GIVEN THE SURFACE AND 850 MB
TEMPERATURES...IT WOULD BE RAIN IF IT HAPPENS. ONCE THE LOW EXITS
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN MONDAY NIGHT...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
DRIFT THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES ACROSS WISCONSIN WEDNESDAY. 700 MB UPWARD
MOTION STARTS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
INCREASES OVER THE NORTH AND WEST AREAS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
HIGHER 700 MB RH STAYS JUST TO THE NORTH AND WEST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

AS THE HIGH RECEDES EAST TUESDAY EVENING...MODERATE TO STRONG
WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURS IN THE 925/850700 MB LAYERS. THE MODELS
KEEP MOST OF THE SHOWERS OFF TO THE WEST AND NORTH THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...EXCEPT POSSIBLY THE FAR NORTHWEST TOWARDS
AND NORTH OF THE DELLS.

LONG TERM...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE EXITS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY
EVENING...AND MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE SUPERIOR AREA THURSDAY. A
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DIGS ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. AT THE SAME
TIME.

A MILD SOUTH FLOW CONTINUES WEDNESDAY EVENING UNTIL A COLD FRONT
MOVES EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE COLD FRONT AND
PRECIPITATION...WHICH WILL OCCUR AS RAIN.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

THE MODELS ARE MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF TRENDING TOWARD THE
GFS. AS THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO
CANADA...THE SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH MOVES INTO AND ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF KEEP MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. THERE WILL BE A SMALL CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS WITH THE MAIN TROUGH SATURDAY.

SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

A WEST/SOUTHWEST MID AND UPPER FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
GREAT LAKES WITH A TROUGH BEGINNING TO DIG ACROSS THE WEST COAST
OF THE U.S.

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING WARM AIR ADVECTION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...WITH THE ECMWF GIVING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION WHICH
WOULD LIKELY BE A MIX. THE GFS IS DRY AS BOTH MODELS KEEP A
DEVELOPING LOW NEAR EASTERN COLORADO.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

A BATCH OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MAY SEE MVFR VISIBILITIES WITH THE
SHOWERS...WITH MVFR CEILINGS REMAINING. THE SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE EAST
OF THE AREA BY EARLY THIS EVENING.

GUSTY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL VEER WEST BEHIND COLD FRONT BY
EARLY THIS EVENING. GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES BEFORE
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN LATER
TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO THE SOUTH BRINGS LIGHTER WINDS.
MVFR CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST OF THE AREA AS WELL BY LATER
TONIGHT.

WEST WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON. WARM FRONT
TRYING TO SET UP NEAR THE AREA SHOULD HELP BRING SOME MIDDLE LEVEL
CLOUDS...ALONG WITH SMALL CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN. FOR NOW...WILL
LEAVE MENTION OUT OF TAFS.

MARINE...

GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN. AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS NEAR
AND OVER THE LAKE SHOWING GUSTS REMAINING UP TO 35 KNOTS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...AS TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS OVER THE REGION.
HIGH WAVES OF 5 TO 7 FEET ARE EXPECTED AS WELL.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED TONIGHT...AFTER THE GALE
WARNING EXPIRES...AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLOWLY WEAKENS. GUSTY
WEST WINDS TO 30 KNOTS WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN...WITH WAVES SLOWLY
SUBSIDING AS WELL.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT MONDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HAHN
TONIGHT/MONDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...WOOD
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...HENTZ





000
FXUS63 KMKX 300243
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
943 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...


.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...AS SFC WINDS ARE BECOMING LIGHTER THIS
EVENING...LLWS IS POSSIBLE DUE TO A NWLY 30-40 KT LLJ ALOFT. THE
WINDS ALOFT WILL WEAKEN SUFFICIENTLY BY 06Z...THE BEGINNING OF THE
NEW TAF PERIOD. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL MON INTO MON
EVE. A BROKEN CLOUD DECK OF 7-9 KFT IS EXPECTED MON AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING WITH SMALL CHANCES OF VERY LIGHT RAIN...AS LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

A BATCH OF RAIN SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SECOND BATCH IS BEING DRIVEN BY A
SECONDARY 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM...SLIDING SOUTHEAST THROUGH
MINNESOTA. THE SHOWERS SHOULD EXIT THE EAST BY EARLY THIS EVENING.

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AREA INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING...SHIFTING THE GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS TO THE WEST IN ITS
WAKE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN
TONIGHT...ALLOWING THE GUSTS TO SUBSIDE SOON AFTER MIDNIGHT.

ANY LINGERING LOW CLOUDS INTO THE EARLY EVENING WILL GRADUALLY MOVE
OUT OF THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD DROP
INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S...PERHAPS EVEN COLDER IF WINDS
WEAKEN ENOUGH LATER TONIGHT.

MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTING EAST INTO THE REGION DURING THE MORNING. GFS/ECMWF ARE
SHOWING LIGHT QPF DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON...AS A WARM FRONT
DEVELOPS JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA. THE CANADIAN MODEL IS LESS
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE QPF...AND THE NAM IS DRY.

ALL MODELS ARE SHOWING A 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM SLIDING SOUTHEAST
INTO WISCONSIN DURING THE LATER PORTION OF THE DAY. THERE IS SOME
FOCUSED WARM AIR ADVECTION IN THE AREA...WITH SOME DECENT
FRONTOGENESIS RESPONSE ON THE GFS. THE NAM IS MUCH WEAKER. AREA
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING SOME SATURATION ABOVE 5000 FEET ABOVE
GROUND LEVEL...DRY BELOW IT.

SOME UNCERTAINTY HERE...SO WILL GO WITH LOWER END POPS FOR LIGHT
RAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
AREA. HIGHS WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD REACH INTO THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 50S.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

A JET MAX OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
TUESDAY IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW...AS A 250 MB UPPER RIDGE MOVES
INTO THE DAKOTAS. THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE INCREASES MONDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUES IN THE MORNING OVER THE SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY.
850/700 MB WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURS MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE COOLING
TUESDAY AT 850 MB...AFTER THE LOW/MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OFF.
WEAK 700 MB UPWARD MOTION OCCURS EARLY MONDAY EVENING BEFORE
INCREASING TO MODERATE VALUES MAINLY FROM NORTH OF MILWAUKEE AND
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. 700 MB RH IS NEARLY SATURATED
MONDAY EVENING BEFORE STRONG DRYING FROM THE WEST OCCURS LATE. 850
MB LAYERS ARE DRY UNTIL SOME MOISTENING OCCURS FROM THE NORTH
TUESDAY BRINGING A POTENTIAL BAND OF SHALLOW STRATOCUMULUS.
HOWEVER WITH MIXING THIS MAY STAY SCATTERED.

THE GFS IS DRY MONDAY EVENING BUT THE ECMWF BRINGS PRECIPITATION
TO ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHWEST AREAS...WITH THE NAM MAINLY DRY
EXCEPT NORTH TOWARD SHEBOYGAN. GIVEN THE SURFACE AND 850 MB
TEMPERATURES...IT WOULD BE RAIN IF IT HAPPENS. ONCE THE LOW EXITS
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN MONDAY NIGHT...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
DRIFT THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES ACROSS WISCONSIN WEDNESDAY. 700 MB UPWARD
MOTION STARTS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
INCREASES OVER THE NORTH AND WEST AREAS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
HIGHER 700 MB RH STAYS JUST TO THE NORTH AND WEST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

AS THE HIGH RECEDES EAST TUESDAY EVENING...MODERATE TO STRONG
WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURS IN THE 925/850700 MB LAYERS. THE MODELS
KEEP MOST OF THE SHOWERS OFF TO THE WEST AND NORTH THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...EXCEPT POSSIBLY THE FAR NORTHWEST TOWARDS
AND NORTH OF THE DELLS.

LONG TERM...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE EXITS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY
EVENING...AND MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE SUPERIOR AREA THURSDAY. A
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DIGS ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. AT THE SAME
TIME.

A MILD SOUTH FLOW CONTINUES WEDNESDAY EVENING UNTIL A COLD FRONT
MOVES EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE COLD FRONT AND
PRECIPITATION...WHICH WILL OCCUR AS RAIN.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

THE MODELS ARE MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF TRENDING TOWARD THE
GFS. AS THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO
CANADA...THE SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH MOVES INTO AND ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF KEEP MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. THERE WILL BE A SMALL CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS WITH THE MAIN TROUGH SATURDAY.

SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

A WEST/SOUTHWEST MID AND UPPER FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
GREAT LAKES WITH A TROUGH BEGINNING TO DIG ACROSS THE WEST COAST
OF THE U.S.

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING WARM AIR ADVECTION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...WITH THE ECMWF GIVING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION WHICH
WOULD LIKELY BE A MIX. THE GFS IS DRY AS BOTH MODELS KEEP A
DEVELOPING LOW NEAR EASTERN COLORADO.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

A BATCH OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MAY SEE MVFR VISIBILITIES WITH THE
SHOWERS...WITH MVFR CEILINGS REMAINING. THE SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE EAST
OF THE AREA BY EARLY THIS EVENING.

GUSTY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL VEER WEST BEHIND COLD FRONT BY
EARLY THIS EVENING. GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES BEFORE
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN LATER
TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO THE SOUTH BRINGS LIGHTER WINDS.
MVFR CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST OF THE AREA AS WELL BY LATER
TONIGHT.

WEST WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON. WARM FRONT
TRYING TO SET UP NEAR THE AREA SHOULD HELP BRING SOME MIDDLE LEVEL
CLOUDS...ALONG WITH SMALL CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN. FOR NOW...WILL
LEAVE MENTION OUT OF TAFS.

MARINE...

GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN. AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS NEAR
AND OVER THE LAKE SHOWING GUSTS REMAINING UP TO 35 KNOTS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...AS TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS OVER THE REGION.
HIGH WAVES OF 5 TO 7 FEET ARE EXPECTED AS WELL.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED TONIGHT...AFTER THE GALE
WARNING EXPIRES...AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLOWLY WEAKENS. GUSTY
WEST WINDS TO 30 KNOTS WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN...WITH WAVES SLOWLY
SUBSIDING AS WELL.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT MONDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HAHN
TONIGHT/MONDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...WOOD
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...HENTZ




000
FXUS63 KMKX 300243
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
943 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...


.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...AS SFC WINDS ARE BECOMING LIGHTER THIS
EVENING...LLWS IS POSSIBLE DUE TO A NWLY 30-40 KT LLJ ALOFT. THE
WINDS ALOFT WILL WEAKEN SUFFICIENTLY BY 06Z...THE BEGINNING OF THE
NEW TAF PERIOD. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL MON INTO MON
EVE. A BROKEN CLOUD DECK OF 7-9 KFT IS EXPECTED MON AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING WITH SMALL CHANCES OF VERY LIGHT RAIN...AS LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

A BATCH OF RAIN SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SECOND BATCH IS BEING DRIVEN BY A
SECONDARY 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM...SLIDING SOUTHEAST THROUGH
MINNESOTA. THE SHOWERS SHOULD EXIT THE EAST BY EARLY THIS EVENING.

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AREA INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING...SHIFTING THE GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS TO THE WEST IN ITS
WAKE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN
TONIGHT...ALLOWING THE GUSTS TO SUBSIDE SOON AFTER MIDNIGHT.

ANY LINGERING LOW CLOUDS INTO THE EARLY EVENING WILL GRADUALLY MOVE
OUT OF THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD DROP
INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S...PERHAPS EVEN COLDER IF WINDS
WEAKEN ENOUGH LATER TONIGHT.

MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTING EAST INTO THE REGION DURING THE MORNING. GFS/ECMWF ARE
SHOWING LIGHT QPF DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON...AS A WARM FRONT
DEVELOPS JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA. THE CANADIAN MODEL IS LESS
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE QPF...AND THE NAM IS DRY.

ALL MODELS ARE SHOWING A 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM SLIDING SOUTHEAST
INTO WISCONSIN DURING THE LATER PORTION OF THE DAY. THERE IS SOME
FOCUSED WARM AIR ADVECTION IN THE AREA...WITH SOME DECENT
FRONTOGENESIS RESPONSE ON THE GFS. THE NAM IS MUCH WEAKER. AREA
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING SOME SATURATION ABOVE 5000 FEET ABOVE
GROUND LEVEL...DRY BELOW IT.

SOME UNCERTAINTY HERE...SO WILL GO WITH LOWER END POPS FOR LIGHT
RAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
AREA. HIGHS WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD REACH INTO THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 50S.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

A JET MAX OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
TUESDAY IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW...AS A 250 MB UPPER RIDGE MOVES
INTO THE DAKOTAS. THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE INCREASES MONDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUES IN THE MORNING OVER THE SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY.
850/700 MB WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURS MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE COOLING
TUESDAY AT 850 MB...AFTER THE LOW/MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OFF.
WEAK 700 MB UPWARD MOTION OCCURS EARLY MONDAY EVENING BEFORE
INCREASING TO MODERATE VALUES MAINLY FROM NORTH OF MILWAUKEE AND
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. 700 MB RH IS NEARLY SATURATED
MONDAY EVENING BEFORE STRONG DRYING FROM THE WEST OCCURS LATE. 850
MB LAYERS ARE DRY UNTIL SOME MOISTENING OCCURS FROM THE NORTH
TUESDAY BRINGING A POTENTIAL BAND OF SHALLOW STRATOCUMULUS.
HOWEVER WITH MIXING THIS MAY STAY SCATTERED.

THE GFS IS DRY MONDAY EVENING BUT THE ECMWF BRINGS PRECIPITATION
TO ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHWEST AREAS...WITH THE NAM MAINLY DRY
EXCEPT NORTH TOWARD SHEBOYGAN. GIVEN THE SURFACE AND 850 MB
TEMPERATURES...IT WOULD BE RAIN IF IT HAPPENS. ONCE THE LOW EXITS
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN MONDAY NIGHT...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
DRIFT THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES ACROSS WISCONSIN WEDNESDAY. 700 MB UPWARD
MOTION STARTS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
INCREASES OVER THE NORTH AND WEST AREAS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
HIGHER 700 MB RH STAYS JUST TO THE NORTH AND WEST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

AS THE HIGH RECEDES EAST TUESDAY EVENING...MODERATE TO STRONG
WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURS IN THE 925/850700 MB LAYERS. THE MODELS
KEEP MOST OF THE SHOWERS OFF TO THE WEST AND NORTH THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...EXCEPT POSSIBLY THE FAR NORTHWEST TOWARDS
AND NORTH OF THE DELLS.

LONG TERM...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE EXITS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY
EVENING...AND MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE SUPERIOR AREA THURSDAY. A
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DIGS ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. AT THE SAME
TIME.

A MILD SOUTH FLOW CONTINUES WEDNESDAY EVENING UNTIL A COLD FRONT
MOVES EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE COLD FRONT AND
PRECIPITATION...WHICH WILL OCCUR AS RAIN.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

THE MODELS ARE MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF TRENDING TOWARD THE
GFS. AS THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO
CANADA...THE SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH MOVES INTO AND ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF KEEP MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. THERE WILL BE A SMALL CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS WITH THE MAIN TROUGH SATURDAY.

SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

A WEST/SOUTHWEST MID AND UPPER FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
GREAT LAKES WITH A TROUGH BEGINNING TO DIG ACROSS THE WEST COAST
OF THE U.S.

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING WARM AIR ADVECTION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...WITH THE ECMWF GIVING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION WHICH
WOULD LIKELY BE A MIX. THE GFS IS DRY AS BOTH MODELS KEEP A
DEVELOPING LOW NEAR EASTERN COLORADO.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

A BATCH OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MAY SEE MVFR VISIBILITIES WITH THE
SHOWERS...WITH MVFR CEILINGS REMAINING. THE SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE EAST
OF THE AREA BY EARLY THIS EVENING.

GUSTY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL VEER WEST BEHIND COLD FRONT BY
EARLY THIS EVENING. GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES BEFORE
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN LATER
TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO THE SOUTH BRINGS LIGHTER WINDS.
MVFR CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST OF THE AREA AS WELL BY LATER
TONIGHT.

WEST WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON. WARM FRONT
TRYING TO SET UP NEAR THE AREA SHOULD HELP BRING SOME MIDDLE LEVEL
CLOUDS...ALONG WITH SMALL CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN. FOR NOW...WILL
LEAVE MENTION OUT OF TAFS.

MARINE...

GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN. AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS NEAR
AND OVER THE LAKE SHOWING GUSTS REMAINING UP TO 35 KNOTS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...AS TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS OVER THE REGION.
HIGH WAVES OF 5 TO 7 FEET ARE EXPECTED AS WELL.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED TONIGHT...AFTER THE GALE
WARNING EXPIRES...AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLOWLY WEAKENS. GUSTY
WEST WINDS TO 30 KNOTS WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN...WITH WAVES SLOWLY
SUBSIDING AS WELL.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT MONDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HAHN
TONIGHT/MONDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...WOOD
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...HENTZ




000
FXUS63 KMKX 292002
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
302 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...

.TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

A BATCH OF RAIN SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SECOND BATCH IS BEING DRIVEN BY A
SECONDARY 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM...SLIDING SOUTHEAST THROUGH
MINNESOTA. THE SHOWERS SHOULD EXIT THE EAST BY EARLY THIS EVENING.

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AREA INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING...SHIFTING THE GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS TO THE WEST IN ITS
WAKE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN
TONIGHT...ALLOWING THE GUSTS TO SUBSIDE SOON AFTER MIDNIGHT.

ANY LINGERING LOW CLOUDS INTO THE EARLY EVENING WILL GRADUALLY MOVE
OUT OF THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD DROP
INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S...PERHAPS EVEN COLDER IF WINDS
WEAKEN ENOUGH LATER TONIGHT.

.MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTING EAST INTO THE REGION DURING THE MORNING. GFS/ECMWF ARE
SHOWING LIGHT QPF DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON...AS A WARM FRONT
DEVELOPS JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA. THE CANADIAN MODEL IS LESS
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE QPF...AND THE NAM IS DRY.

ALL MODELS ARE SHOWING A 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM SLIDING SOUTHEAST
INTO WISCONSIN DURING THE LATER PORTION OF THE DAY. THERE IS SOME
FOCUSED WARM AIR ADVECTION IN THE AREA...WITH SOME DECENT
FRONTOGENESIS RESPONSE ON THE GFS. THE NAM IS MUCH WEAKER. AREA
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING SOME SATURATION ABOVE 5000 FEET ABOVE
GROUND LEVEL...DRY BELOW IT.

SOME UNCERTAINTY HERE...SO WILL GO WITH LOWER END POPS FOR LIGHT
RAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
AREA. HIGHS WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD REACH INTO THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 50S.

.MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

A JET MAX OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
TUESDAY IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW...AS A 250 MB UPPER RIDGE MOVES
INTO THE DAKOTAS. THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE INCREASES MONDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUES IN THE MORNING OVER THE SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY.
850/700 MB WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURS MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE COOLING
TUESDAY AT 850 MB...AFTER THE LOW/MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OFF.
WEAK 700 MB UPWARD MOTION OCCURS EARLY MONDAY EVENING BEFORE
INCREASING TO MODERATE VALUES MAINLY FROM NORTH OF MILWAUKEE AND
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. 700 MB RH IS NEARLY SATURATED
MONDAY EVENING BEFORE STRONG DRYING FROM THE WEST OCCURS LATE. 850
MB LAYERS ARE DRY UNTIL SOME MOISTENING OCCURS FROM THE NORTH
TUESDAY BRINGING A POTENTIAL BAND OF SHALLOW STRATOCUMULUS.
HOWEVER WITH MIXING THIS MAY STAY SCATTERED.

THE GFS IS DRY MONDAY EVENING BUT THE ECMWF BRINGS PRECIPITATION
TO ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHWEST AREAS...WITH THE NAM MAINLY DRY
EXCEPT NORTH TOWARD SHEBOYGAN. GIVEN THE SURFACE AND 850 MB
TEMPERATURES...IT WOULD BE RAIN IF IT HAPPENS. ONCE THE LOW EXITS
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN MONDAY NIGHT...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
DRIFT THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY.

.TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES ACROSS WISCONSIN WEDNESDAY. 700 MB UPWARD
MOTION STARTS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
INCREASES OVER THE NORTH AND WEST AREAS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
HIGHER 700 MB RH STAYS JUST TO THE NORTH AND WEST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

AS THE HIGH RECEDES EAST TUESDAY EVENING...MODERATE TO STRONG
WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURS IN THE 925/850700 MB LAYERS. THE MODELS
KEEP MOST OF THE SHOWERS OFF TO THE WEST AND NORTH THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...EXCEPT POSSIBLY THE FAR NORTHWEST TOWARDS
AND NORTH OF THE DELLS.

.LONG TERM...

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE EXITS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY
EVENING...AND MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE SUPERIOR AREA THURSDAY. A
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DIGS ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. AT THE SAME
TIME.

A MILD SOUTH FLOW CONTINUES WEDNESDAY EVENING UNTIL A COLD FRONT
MOVES EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE COLD FRONT AND
PRECIPITATION...WHICH WILL OCCUR AS RAIN.


.FRIDAY AND SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

THE MODELS ARE MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF TRENDING TOWARD THE
GFS. AS THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO
CANADA...THE SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH MOVES INTO AND ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF KEEP MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. THERE WILL BE A SMALL CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS WITH THE MAIN TROUGH SATURDAY.

.SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

A WEST/SOUTHWEST MID AND UPPER FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
GREAT LAKES WITH A TROUGH BEGINNING TO DIG ACROSS THE WEST COAST
OF THE U.S.

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING WARM AIR ADVECTION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...WITH THE ECMWF GIVING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION WHICH
WOULD LIKELY BE A MIX. THE GFS IS DRY AS BOTH MODELS KEEP A
DEVELOPING LOW NEAR EASTERN COLORADO.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

A BATCH OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MAY SEE MVFR VISIBILITIES WITH THE
SHOWERS...WITH MVFR CEILINGS REMAINING. THE SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE EAST
OF THE AREA BY EARLY THIS EVENING.

GUSTY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL VEER WEST BEHIND COLD FRONT BY
EARLY THIS EVENING. GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES BEFORE
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN LATER
TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO THE SOUTH BRINGS LIGHTER WINDS.
MVFR CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST OF THE AREA AS WELL BY LATER
TONIGHT.

WEST WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON. WARM FRONT
TRYING TO SET UP NEAR THE AREA SHOULD HELP BRING SOME MIDDLE LEVEL
CLOUDS...ALONG WITH SMALL CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN. FOR NOW...WILL
LEAVE MENTION OUT OF TAFS.

&&

.MARINE...

GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN. AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS NEAR
AND OVER THE LAKE SHOWING GUSTS REMAINING UP TO 35 KNOTS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...AS TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS OVER THE REGION.
HIGH WAVES OF 5 TO 7 FEET ARE EXPECTED AS WELL.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED TOINGHT...AFTER THE GALE
WARNING EXPIRES...AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLOWLY WEAKENS. GUSTY
WEST WINDS TO 30 KNOTS WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN...WITH WAVES SLOWLY
SUBSIDING AS WELL.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

TONIGHT/MONDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...WOOD
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...HENTZ





000
FXUS63 KMKX 292002
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
302 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...

.TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

A BATCH OF RAIN SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SECOND BATCH IS BEING DRIVEN BY A
SECONDARY 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM...SLIDING SOUTHEAST THROUGH
MINNESOTA. THE SHOWERS SHOULD EXIT THE EAST BY EARLY THIS EVENING.

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AREA INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING...SHIFTING THE GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS TO THE WEST IN ITS
WAKE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN
TONIGHT...ALLOWING THE GUSTS TO SUBSIDE SOON AFTER MIDNIGHT.

ANY LINGERING LOW CLOUDS INTO THE EARLY EVENING WILL GRADUALLY MOVE
OUT OF THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD DROP
INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S...PERHAPS EVEN COLDER IF WINDS
WEAKEN ENOUGH LATER TONIGHT.

.MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTING EAST INTO THE REGION DURING THE MORNING. GFS/ECMWF ARE
SHOWING LIGHT QPF DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON...AS A WARM FRONT
DEVELOPS JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA. THE CANADIAN MODEL IS LESS
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE QPF...AND THE NAM IS DRY.

ALL MODELS ARE SHOWING A 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM SLIDING SOUTHEAST
INTO WISCONSIN DURING THE LATER PORTION OF THE DAY. THERE IS SOME
FOCUSED WARM AIR ADVECTION IN THE AREA...WITH SOME DECENT
FRONTOGENESIS RESPONSE ON THE GFS. THE NAM IS MUCH WEAKER. AREA
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING SOME SATURATION ABOVE 5000 FEET ABOVE
GROUND LEVEL...DRY BELOW IT.

SOME UNCERTAINTY HERE...SO WILL GO WITH LOWER END POPS FOR LIGHT
RAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
AREA. HIGHS WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD REACH INTO THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 50S.

.MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

A JET MAX OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
TUESDAY IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW...AS A 250 MB UPPER RIDGE MOVES
INTO THE DAKOTAS. THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE INCREASES MONDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUES IN THE MORNING OVER THE SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY.
850/700 MB WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURS MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE COOLING
TUESDAY AT 850 MB...AFTER THE LOW/MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OFF.
WEAK 700 MB UPWARD MOTION OCCURS EARLY MONDAY EVENING BEFORE
INCREASING TO MODERATE VALUES MAINLY FROM NORTH OF MILWAUKEE AND
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. 700 MB RH IS NEARLY SATURATED
MONDAY EVENING BEFORE STRONG DRYING FROM THE WEST OCCURS LATE. 850
MB LAYERS ARE DRY UNTIL SOME MOISTENING OCCURS FROM THE NORTH
TUESDAY BRINGING A POTENTIAL BAND OF SHALLOW STRATOCUMULUS.
HOWEVER WITH MIXING THIS MAY STAY SCATTERED.

THE GFS IS DRY MONDAY EVENING BUT THE ECMWF BRINGS PRECIPITATION
TO ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHWEST AREAS...WITH THE NAM MAINLY DRY
EXCEPT NORTH TOWARD SHEBOYGAN. GIVEN THE SURFACE AND 850 MB
TEMPERATURES...IT WOULD BE RAIN IF IT HAPPENS. ONCE THE LOW EXITS
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN MONDAY NIGHT...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
DRIFT THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY.

.TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES ACROSS WISCONSIN WEDNESDAY. 700 MB UPWARD
MOTION STARTS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
INCREASES OVER THE NORTH AND WEST AREAS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
HIGHER 700 MB RH STAYS JUST TO THE NORTH AND WEST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

AS THE HIGH RECEDES EAST TUESDAY EVENING...MODERATE TO STRONG
WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURS IN THE 925/850700 MB LAYERS. THE MODELS
KEEP MOST OF THE SHOWERS OFF TO THE WEST AND NORTH THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...EXCEPT POSSIBLY THE FAR NORTHWEST TOWARDS
AND NORTH OF THE DELLS.

.LONG TERM...

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE EXITS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY
EVENING...AND MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE SUPERIOR AREA THURSDAY. A
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DIGS ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. AT THE SAME
TIME.

A MILD SOUTH FLOW CONTINUES WEDNESDAY EVENING UNTIL A COLD FRONT
MOVES EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE COLD FRONT AND
PRECIPITATION...WHICH WILL OCCUR AS RAIN.


.FRIDAY AND SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

THE MODELS ARE MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF TRENDING TOWARD THE
GFS. AS THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO
CANADA...THE SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH MOVES INTO AND ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF KEEP MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. THERE WILL BE A SMALL CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS WITH THE MAIN TROUGH SATURDAY.

.SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

A WEST/SOUTHWEST MID AND UPPER FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
GREAT LAKES WITH A TROUGH BEGINNING TO DIG ACROSS THE WEST COAST
OF THE U.S.

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING WARM AIR ADVECTION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...WITH THE ECMWF GIVING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION WHICH
WOULD LIKELY BE A MIX. THE GFS IS DRY AS BOTH MODELS KEEP A
DEVELOPING LOW NEAR EASTERN COLORADO.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

A BATCH OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MAY SEE MVFR VISIBILITIES WITH THE
SHOWERS...WITH MVFR CEILINGS REMAINING. THE SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE EAST
OF THE AREA BY EARLY THIS EVENING.

GUSTY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL VEER WEST BEHIND COLD FRONT BY
EARLY THIS EVENING. GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES BEFORE
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN LATER
TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO THE SOUTH BRINGS LIGHTER WINDS.
MVFR CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST OF THE AREA AS WELL BY LATER
TONIGHT.

WEST WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON. WARM FRONT
TRYING TO SET UP NEAR THE AREA SHOULD HELP BRING SOME MIDDLE LEVEL
CLOUDS...ALONG WITH SMALL CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN. FOR NOW...WILL
LEAVE MENTION OUT OF TAFS.

&&

.MARINE...

GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN. AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS NEAR
AND OVER THE LAKE SHOWING GUSTS REMAINING UP TO 35 KNOTS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...AS TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS OVER THE REGION.
HIGH WAVES OF 5 TO 7 FEET ARE EXPECTED AS WELL.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED TOINGHT...AFTER THE GALE
WARNING EXPIRES...AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLOWLY WEAKENS. GUSTY
WEST WINDS TO 30 KNOTS WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN...WITH WAVES SLOWLY
SUBSIDING AS WELL.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

TONIGHT/MONDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...WOOD
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...HENTZ




000
FXUS63 KMKX 292002
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
302 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...

.TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

A BATCH OF RAIN SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SECOND BATCH IS BEING DRIVEN BY A
SECONDARY 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM...SLIDING SOUTHEAST THROUGH
MINNESOTA. THE SHOWERS SHOULD EXIT THE EAST BY EARLY THIS EVENING.

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AREA INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING...SHIFTING THE GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS TO THE WEST IN ITS
WAKE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN
TONIGHT...ALLOWING THE GUSTS TO SUBSIDE SOON AFTER MIDNIGHT.

ANY LINGERING LOW CLOUDS INTO THE EARLY EVENING WILL GRADUALLY MOVE
OUT OF THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD DROP
INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S...PERHAPS EVEN COLDER IF WINDS
WEAKEN ENOUGH LATER TONIGHT.

.MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTING EAST INTO THE REGION DURING THE MORNING. GFS/ECMWF ARE
SHOWING LIGHT QPF DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON...AS A WARM FRONT
DEVELOPS JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA. THE CANADIAN MODEL IS LESS
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE QPF...AND THE NAM IS DRY.

ALL MODELS ARE SHOWING A 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM SLIDING SOUTHEAST
INTO WISCONSIN DURING THE LATER PORTION OF THE DAY. THERE IS SOME
FOCUSED WARM AIR ADVECTION IN THE AREA...WITH SOME DECENT
FRONTOGENESIS RESPONSE ON THE GFS. THE NAM IS MUCH WEAKER. AREA
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING SOME SATURATION ABOVE 5000 FEET ABOVE
GROUND LEVEL...DRY BELOW IT.

SOME UNCERTAINTY HERE...SO WILL GO WITH LOWER END POPS FOR LIGHT
RAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
AREA. HIGHS WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD REACH INTO THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 50S.

.MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

A JET MAX OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
TUESDAY IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW...AS A 250 MB UPPER RIDGE MOVES
INTO THE DAKOTAS. THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE INCREASES MONDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUES IN THE MORNING OVER THE SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY.
850/700 MB WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURS MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE COOLING
TUESDAY AT 850 MB...AFTER THE LOW/MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OFF.
WEAK 700 MB UPWARD MOTION OCCURS EARLY MONDAY EVENING BEFORE
INCREASING TO MODERATE VALUES MAINLY FROM NORTH OF MILWAUKEE AND
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. 700 MB RH IS NEARLY SATURATED
MONDAY EVENING BEFORE STRONG DRYING FROM THE WEST OCCURS LATE. 850
MB LAYERS ARE DRY UNTIL SOME MOISTENING OCCURS FROM THE NORTH
TUESDAY BRINGING A POTENTIAL BAND OF SHALLOW STRATOCUMULUS.
HOWEVER WITH MIXING THIS MAY STAY SCATTERED.

THE GFS IS DRY MONDAY EVENING BUT THE ECMWF BRINGS PRECIPITATION
TO ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHWEST AREAS...WITH THE NAM MAINLY DRY
EXCEPT NORTH TOWARD SHEBOYGAN. GIVEN THE SURFACE AND 850 MB
TEMPERATURES...IT WOULD BE RAIN IF IT HAPPENS. ONCE THE LOW EXITS
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN MONDAY NIGHT...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
DRIFT THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY.

.TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES ACROSS WISCONSIN WEDNESDAY. 700 MB UPWARD
MOTION STARTS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
INCREASES OVER THE NORTH AND WEST AREAS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
HIGHER 700 MB RH STAYS JUST TO THE NORTH AND WEST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

AS THE HIGH RECEDES EAST TUESDAY EVENING...MODERATE TO STRONG
WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURS IN THE 925/850700 MB LAYERS. THE MODELS
KEEP MOST OF THE SHOWERS OFF TO THE WEST AND NORTH THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...EXCEPT POSSIBLY THE FAR NORTHWEST TOWARDS
AND NORTH OF THE DELLS.

.LONG TERM...

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE EXITS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY
EVENING...AND MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE SUPERIOR AREA THURSDAY. A
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DIGS ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. AT THE SAME
TIME.

A MILD SOUTH FLOW CONTINUES WEDNESDAY EVENING UNTIL A COLD FRONT
MOVES EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE COLD FRONT AND
PRECIPITATION...WHICH WILL OCCUR AS RAIN.


.FRIDAY AND SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

THE MODELS ARE MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF TRENDING TOWARD THE
GFS. AS THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO
CANADA...THE SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH MOVES INTO AND ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF KEEP MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. THERE WILL BE A SMALL CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS WITH THE MAIN TROUGH SATURDAY.

.SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

A WEST/SOUTHWEST MID AND UPPER FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
GREAT LAKES WITH A TROUGH BEGINNING TO DIG ACROSS THE WEST COAST
OF THE U.S.

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING WARM AIR ADVECTION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...WITH THE ECMWF GIVING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION WHICH
WOULD LIKELY BE A MIX. THE GFS IS DRY AS BOTH MODELS KEEP A
DEVELOPING LOW NEAR EASTERN COLORADO.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

A BATCH OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MAY SEE MVFR VISIBILITIES WITH THE
SHOWERS...WITH MVFR CEILINGS REMAINING. THE SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE EAST
OF THE AREA BY EARLY THIS EVENING.

GUSTY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL VEER WEST BEHIND COLD FRONT BY
EARLY THIS EVENING. GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES BEFORE
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN LATER
TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO THE SOUTH BRINGS LIGHTER WINDS.
MVFR CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST OF THE AREA AS WELL BY LATER
TONIGHT.

WEST WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON. WARM FRONT
TRYING TO SET UP NEAR THE AREA SHOULD HELP BRING SOME MIDDLE LEVEL
CLOUDS...ALONG WITH SMALL CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN. FOR NOW...WILL
LEAVE MENTION OUT OF TAFS.

&&

.MARINE...

GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN. AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS NEAR
AND OVER THE LAKE SHOWING GUSTS REMAINING UP TO 35 KNOTS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...AS TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS OVER THE REGION.
HIGH WAVES OF 5 TO 7 FEET ARE EXPECTED AS WELL.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED TOINGHT...AFTER THE GALE
WARNING EXPIRES...AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLOWLY WEAKENS. GUSTY
WEST WINDS TO 30 KNOTS WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN...WITH WAVES SLOWLY
SUBSIDING AS WELL.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

TONIGHT/MONDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...WOOD
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...HENTZ




000
FXUS63 KMKX 292002
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
302 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...

.TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

A BATCH OF RAIN SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SECOND BATCH IS BEING DRIVEN BY A
SECONDARY 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM...SLIDING SOUTHEAST THROUGH
MINNESOTA. THE SHOWERS SHOULD EXIT THE EAST BY EARLY THIS EVENING.

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AREA INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING...SHIFTING THE GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS TO THE WEST IN ITS
WAKE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN
TONIGHT...ALLOWING THE GUSTS TO SUBSIDE SOON AFTER MIDNIGHT.

ANY LINGERING LOW CLOUDS INTO THE EARLY EVENING WILL GRADUALLY MOVE
OUT OF THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD DROP
INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S...PERHAPS EVEN COLDER IF WINDS
WEAKEN ENOUGH LATER TONIGHT.

.MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTING EAST INTO THE REGION DURING THE MORNING. GFS/ECMWF ARE
SHOWING LIGHT QPF DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON...AS A WARM FRONT
DEVELOPS JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA. THE CANADIAN MODEL IS LESS
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE QPF...AND THE NAM IS DRY.

ALL MODELS ARE SHOWING A 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM SLIDING SOUTHEAST
INTO WISCONSIN DURING THE LATER PORTION OF THE DAY. THERE IS SOME
FOCUSED WARM AIR ADVECTION IN THE AREA...WITH SOME DECENT
FRONTOGENESIS RESPONSE ON THE GFS. THE NAM IS MUCH WEAKER. AREA
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING SOME SATURATION ABOVE 5000 FEET ABOVE
GROUND LEVEL...DRY BELOW IT.

SOME UNCERTAINTY HERE...SO WILL GO WITH LOWER END POPS FOR LIGHT
RAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
AREA. HIGHS WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD REACH INTO THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 50S.

.MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

A JET MAX OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
TUESDAY IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW...AS A 250 MB UPPER RIDGE MOVES
INTO THE DAKOTAS. THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE INCREASES MONDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUES IN THE MORNING OVER THE SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY.
850/700 MB WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURS MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE COOLING
TUESDAY AT 850 MB...AFTER THE LOW/MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OFF.
WEAK 700 MB UPWARD MOTION OCCURS EARLY MONDAY EVENING BEFORE
INCREASING TO MODERATE VALUES MAINLY FROM NORTH OF MILWAUKEE AND
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. 700 MB RH IS NEARLY SATURATED
MONDAY EVENING BEFORE STRONG DRYING FROM THE WEST OCCURS LATE. 850
MB LAYERS ARE DRY UNTIL SOME MOISTENING OCCURS FROM THE NORTH
TUESDAY BRINGING A POTENTIAL BAND OF SHALLOW STRATOCUMULUS.
HOWEVER WITH MIXING THIS MAY STAY SCATTERED.

THE GFS IS DRY MONDAY EVENING BUT THE ECMWF BRINGS PRECIPITATION
TO ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHWEST AREAS...WITH THE NAM MAINLY DRY
EXCEPT NORTH TOWARD SHEBOYGAN. GIVEN THE SURFACE AND 850 MB
TEMPERATURES...IT WOULD BE RAIN IF IT HAPPENS. ONCE THE LOW EXITS
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN MONDAY NIGHT...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
DRIFT THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY.

.TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES ACROSS WISCONSIN WEDNESDAY. 700 MB UPWARD
MOTION STARTS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
INCREASES OVER THE NORTH AND WEST AREAS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
HIGHER 700 MB RH STAYS JUST TO THE NORTH AND WEST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

AS THE HIGH RECEDES EAST TUESDAY EVENING...MODERATE TO STRONG
WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURS IN THE 925/850700 MB LAYERS. THE MODELS
KEEP MOST OF THE SHOWERS OFF TO THE WEST AND NORTH THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...EXCEPT POSSIBLY THE FAR NORTHWEST TOWARDS
AND NORTH OF THE DELLS.

.LONG TERM...

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE EXITS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY
EVENING...AND MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE SUPERIOR AREA THURSDAY. A
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DIGS ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. AT THE SAME
TIME.

A MILD SOUTH FLOW CONTINUES WEDNESDAY EVENING UNTIL A COLD FRONT
MOVES EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE COLD FRONT AND
PRECIPITATION...WHICH WILL OCCUR AS RAIN.


.FRIDAY AND SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

THE MODELS ARE MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF TRENDING TOWARD THE
GFS. AS THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO
CANADA...THE SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH MOVES INTO AND ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF KEEP MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. THERE WILL BE A SMALL CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS WITH THE MAIN TROUGH SATURDAY.

.SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

A WEST/SOUTHWEST MID AND UPPER FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
GREAT LAKES WITH A TROUGH BEGINNING TO DIG ACROSS THE WEST COAST
OF THE U.S.

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING WARM AIR ADVECTION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...WITH THE ECMWF GIVING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION WHICH
WOULD LIKELY BE A MIX. THE GFS IS DRY AS BOTH MODELS KEEP A
DEVELOPING LOW NEAR EASTERN COLORADO.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

A BATCH OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MAY SEE MVFR VISIBILITIES WITH THE
SHOWERS...WITH MVFR CEILINGS REMAINING. THE SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE EAST
OF THE AREA BY EARLY THIS EVENING.

GUSTY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL VEER WEST BEHIND COLD FRONT BY
EARLY THIS EVENING. GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES BEFORE
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN LATER
TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO THE SOUTH BRINGS LIGHTER WINDS.
MVFR CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST OF THE AREA AS WELL BY LATER
TONIGHT.

WEST WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON. WARM FRONT
TRYING TO SET UP NEAR THE AREA SHOULD HELP BRING SOME MIDDLE LEVEL
CLOUDS...ALONG WITH SMALL CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN. FOR NOW...WILL
LEAVE MENTION OUT OF TAFS.

&&

.MARINE...

GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN. AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS NEAR
AND OVER THE LAKE SHOWING GUSTS REMAINING UP TO 35 KNOTS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...AS TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS OVER THE REGION.
HIGH WAVES OF 5 TO 7 FEET ARE EXPECTED AS WELL.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED TOINGHT...AFTER THE GALE
WARNING EXPIRES...AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLOWLY WEAKENS. GUSTY
WEST WINDS TO 30 KNOTS WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN...WITH WAVES SLOWLY
SUBSIDING AS WELL.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

TONIGHT/MONDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...WOOD
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...HENTZ





000
FXUS63 KMKX 291701 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1201 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...

CANCELLED FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY ACROSS THE AREA...AS SURFACE AND
ROAD TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED SUFFICIENTLY TO END THE FREEZING
RAIN HAZARD. INITIAL LINE OF MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE EAST OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT HOUR.

THERE WILL BE A FEW HOURS OF QUIET WEATHER WITH LOW CLOUDS
LINGERING...BEFORE NEXT BATCH OF RAIN SHOWERS MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS SECOND BATCH
IS BEING DRIVEN BY A SECONDARY 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM SLIDING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION. THIS SHOULD EXIT THE EAST BY EARLY
THIS EVENING.

TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT GUSTY
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS IN THE 31 TO 37
KNOT RANGE. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE WEST IN
ITS WAKE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S
ACROSS THE AREA...WITHIN WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

MAINLY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE WITH SOME BRIEF MIXED PRECIPITATION
WILL MOVE EAST OF THE EASTERN TAF SITES BY 18Z. THERE WILL BE A
PERIOD OF A FEW HOURS OF MVFR CEILINGS...BEFORE NEXT BATCH OF
RAIN SHOWERS MOVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA FROM MIDDLE TO LATE
AFTERNOON. MAY SEE MVFR VISIBILITIES WITH THE SHOWERS...AS MVFR
CEILINGS REMAIN.

GUSTY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL LINGER THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE
VEERING WEST BEHIND COLD FRONT BY EARLY EVENING. GUSTS TO 37 KNOTS
ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON.

WEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE WELL
TO THE SOUTH BRINGS LIGHTER WINDS. MVFR CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE AS WELL BY LATER TONIGHT. WEST WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHWEST LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON. WARM FRONT TRYING TO SET UP
ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD HELP BRING SOME CLOUDS...ALONG WITH SMALL
CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN. FOR NOW...WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT OF TAFS.

&&

.MARINE...

EXTENDED GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN. AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS NEAR
AND OVER THE LAKE SHOWING GUSTS REMAINING UP TO 40 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON...AS TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS OVER THE REGION.
HIGH WAVES OF 5 TO 7 FEET ARE EXPECTED AS WELL.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED TOINGHT...AFTER THE GALE
WARNING EXPIRES...AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLOWLY WEAKENS. GUSTY
WEST WINDS TO 30 KNOTS WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN...WITH WAVES SLOWLY
SUBSIDING AS WELL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

A QUICK HITTING AND VERY DYNAMIC SYSTEM WILL PUSH INTO THE WESTERN
FORECAST AREA RIGHT AROUND 12Z THIS MORNING.  THIS FIRST BATCH OF
PRECIP WILL BE A FAIRLY NARROW BAND...LASTING ABOUT 3 HOURS. TEMP
PROFILES INITIALLY IN THE WEST SUGGEST IT WILL BE FREEZING RAIN OR
SLEET BEFORE TEMPS RISE ABOVE FREEZING. PAVEMENT TEMPS FROM AREA DOT
PLATFORMS SHOW MOST SITES AT OR BELOW FREEZING. SO...IT COULD GET
SLICK FOR A SHORT TIME. THE WARM ADVECTION IS IMPRESSIVE ON RAPIDLY
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS MORNING. WE ARE PUSHING CLOSE TO
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT GIVEN THE PRECIP AND CLOUDS...THAT
WOULD BE TOUGH TO ACHIEVE. BUT...WE COULD STILL SEE A FEW GUSTS
APPROACHING 40 MPH. LOOK FOR WINDS TO RAPIDLY INCREASE AFTER
SUNRISE...THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE PRECIP
SHOULD REACH MADISON BY ABOUT 9 AM AND MILWAUKEE 10 TO 11 AM THIS
MORNING.

THERE COULD BE A DRY PERIOD FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER THE FIRST BATCH OF
WARM ADVECTION/STRONG Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE MOVES THROUGH. MORE
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
SOMEWHAT STEEP AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HIGHS TODAY
SHOULD HIT THE LOWER TO MID 40S. THAT FRONT SHOULD EXIT THE
SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND KENOSHA BY 00Z THIS
EVENING. DRIER AIR PUSHES IN QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT...SHUTTING
DOWN THE PRECIP AND BRINGING RAPIDLY CLEARING SKIES.

LONG TERM...

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

SHORTWAVE ENERGY ON THE NOSE OF AN UPPER JET WILL TRACK ALONG THE
850MB BAROCLINIC ZONE THROUGH CENTRAL WI MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
THE ECMWF IS CONSISTENTLY FARTHEST SOUTH WITH THIS FEATURE COMPARED
TO OTHER MODELS AND BRINGS A SWATH OF RAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE MKX
FORECAST AREA.

WINDS WILL SHIFT NNE ON TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THAT SYSTEM WHICH
WILL KEEP TEMPS COOLER NEAR THE LAKE. OTHERWISE... MAX TEMPS WILL BE
IN THE 50S BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL BUMP MAX TEMPS
INTO THE 60S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL BE OCCLUDING...
SO RAIN SHOULD BE DELAYED OVER SOUTHERN WI UNTIL WED NIGHT AND
LINGER INTO THURSDAY. THE ECMWF IS ACTUALLY MUCH SLOWER THAN THE
GFS... AND DOES NOT CLEAR PRECIP OUT OF SOUTHEAST WI UNTIL EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. THE GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW WEAK ELEVATED
INSTABILITY... SO A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER COULD BE POSSIBLE.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY. THE 00Z
ECMWF CAME IN DRY ACROSS SOUTHERN WI NOW- IT USED TO BRING A BIG
SYSTEM INTO THE AREA.

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL CROSS WI ON SATURDAY WHICH COULD
BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES PER THE LATEST ECMWF... BUT I
KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TRACKING THROUGH WI COULD BRING A ROUND OF RAIN TO
SOUTHERN WI ON SUNDAY... BUT THE PLACEMENT IS STILL VERY UNCERTAIN.
THE RESULTING BAROCLINIC ZONE STALLING OVER CENTRAL WI HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BRING RAIN TO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF AND
GFS ARE BOTH SHOWING THIS AS OF THE 00Z RUN.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

LOOK FOR RAPIDLY DETERIORATING CONDITIONS THIS MORNING AS
PRECIPITATION MOVES IN QUICKLY. THE PRECIP SHOULD REACH MADISON BY 9
AM AND COULD INITIALLY BE SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN. PAVEMENT
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY BELOW FREEZING...BUT TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO
WARM QUICKLY AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE VERY RAPIDLY AFTER 12Z THIS
MORNING. THOSE PAVEMENT TEMPERATURES SHOULD RESPOND QUICKLY.  LOOK
FOR SOUTH WIND TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 25KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS REACHING
35KTS. THE WINDS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON.

THE PRECIP SHOULD REACH THE SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN TAF SITES BY 10 TO
11 AM AND WILL BE ALL RAIN BY THAT TIME.  THE INITIAL ROUND OF
PRECIP SHOULD LAST ABOUT 3 HOURS...THEN A LULL IS EXPECTED BEFORE
MORE SHOWERS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. THOSE SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON
WILL BE ALL RAIN AS HIGH TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE MID 40S. A COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...REACHING MADISON AROUND 5 PM
AND MILWAUKEE/KENOSHA BY ABOUT 7 PM.  WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT.

CIGS/VSBYS WILL LIKELY DROP TO IFR LEVELS WITH THE FIRST ROUND OF
PRECIP THAT MOVES IN THIS MORNING...LIFTING TO MVFR LEVELS THIS
AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL CLEAR IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT.

MARINE...

A DEEP TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION TODAY. LOOK FOR SOUTHERLY GALE FORCE WINDS TO DEVELOP QUICKLY
THIS MORNING...THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON. WE SHOULD SEE
GALES OF 35 TO 40KTS FOR A TIME...ESPECIALLY OUT TOWARD OPEN WATER.
WINDS WILL STEADILY DIMINISH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT WITH A GALE WARNING
STARTING AT 10 AM AND CONTINUING THROUGH 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON. ONCE
THE GALE WARNING EXPIRES...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST NORTHWEST IN
THE WAKE OF A PASSING COLD FRONT EARLY THIS EVENING.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WOOD
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DAVIS
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MRC




000
FXUS63 KMKX 291701 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1201 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...

CANCELLED FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY ACROSS THE AREA...AS SURFACE AND
ROAD TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED SUFFICIENTLY TO END THE FREEZING
RAIN HAZARD. INITIAL LINE OF MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE EAST OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT HOUR.

THERE WILL BE A FEW HOURS OF QUIET WEATHER WITH LOW CLOUDS
LINGERING...BEFORE NEXT BATCH OF RAIN SHOWERS MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS SECOND BATCH
IS BEING DRIVEN BY A SECONDARY 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM SLIDING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION. THIS SHOULD EXIT THE EAST BY EARLY
THIS EVENING.

TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT GUSTY
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS IN THE 31 TO 37
KNOT RANGE. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE WEST IN
ITS WAKE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S
ACROSS THE AREA...WITHIN WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

MAINLY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE WITH SOME BRIEF MIXED PRECIPITATION
WILL MOVE EAST OF THE EASTERN TAF SITES BY 18Z. THERE WILL BE A
PERIOD OF A FEW HOURS OF MVFR CEILINGS...BEFORE NEXT BATCH OF
RAIN SHOWERS MOVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA FROM MIDDLE TO LATE
AFTERNOON. MAY SEE MVFR VISIBILITIES WITH THE SHOWERS...AS MVFR
CEILINGS REMAIN.

GUSTY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL LINGER THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE
VEERING WEST BEHIND COLD FRONT BY EARLY EVENING. GUSTS TO 37 KNOTS
ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON.

WEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE WELL
TO THE SOUTH BRINGS LIGHTER WINDS. MVFR CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE AS WELL BY LATER TONIGHT. WEST WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHWEST LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON. WARM FRONT TRYING TO SET UP
ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD HELP BRING SOME CLOUDS...ALONG WITH SMALL
CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN. FOR NOW...WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT OF TAFS.

&&

.MARINE...

EXTENDED GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN. AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS NEAR
AND OVER THE LAKE SHOWING GUSTS REMAINING UP TO 40 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON...AS TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS OVER THE REGION.
HIGH WAVES OF 5 TO 7 FEET ARE EXPECTED AS WELL.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED TOINGHT...AFTER THE GALE
WARNING EXPIRES...AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLOWLY WEAKENS. GUSTY
WEST WINDS TO 30 KNOTS WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN...WITH WAVES SLOWLY
SUBSIDING AS WELL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

A QUICK HITTING AND VERY DYNAMIC SYSTEM WILL PUSH INTO THE WESTERN
FORECAST AREA RIGHT AROUND 12Z THIS MORNING.  THIS FIRST BATCH OF
PRECIP WILL BE A FAIRLY NARROW BAND...LASTING ABOUT 3 HOURS. TEMP
PROFILES INITIALLY IN THE WEST SUGGEST IT WILL BE FREEZING RAIN OR
SLEET BEFORE TEMPS RISE ABOVE FREEZING. PAVEMENT TEMPS FROM AREA DOT
PLATFORMS SHOW MOST SITES AT OR BELOW FREEZING. SO...IT COULD GET
SLICK FOR A SHORT TIME. THE WARM ADVECTION IS IMPRESSIVE ON RAPIDLY
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS MORNING. WE ARE PUSHING CLOSE TO
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT GIVEN THE PRECIP AND CLOUDS...THAT
WOULD BE TOUGH TO ACHIEVE. BUT...WE COULD STILL SEE A FEW GUSTS
APPROACHING 40 MPH. LOOK FOR WINDS TO RAPIDLY INCREASE AFTER
SUNRISE...THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE PRECIP
SHOULD REACH MADISON BY ABOUT 9 AM AND MILWAUKEE 10 TO 11 AM THIS
MORNING.

THERE COULD BE A DRY PERIOD FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER THE FIRST BATCH OF
WARM ADVECTION/STRONG Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE MOVES THROUGH. MORE
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
SOMEWHAT STEEP AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HIGHS TODAY
SHOULD HIT THE LOWER TO MID 40S. THAT FRONT SHOULD EXIT THE
SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND KENOSHA BY 00Z THIS
EVENING. DRIER AIR PUSHES IN QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT...SHUTTING
DOWN THE PRECIP AND BRINGING RAPIDLY CLEARING SKIES.

LONG TERM...

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

SHORTWAVE ENERGY ON THE NOSE OF AN UPPER JET WILL TRACK ALONG THE
850MB BAROCLINIC ZONE THROUGH CENTRAL WI MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
THE ECMWF IS CONSISTENTLY FARTHEST SOUTH WITH THIS FEATURE COMPARED
TO OTHER MODELS AND BRINGS A SWATH OF RAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE MKX
FORECAST AREA.

WINDS WILL SHIFT NNE ON TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THAT SYSTEM WHICH
WILL KEEP TEMPS COOLER NEAR THE LAKE. OTHERWISE... MAX TEMPS WILL BE
IN THE 50S BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL BUMP MAX TEMPS
INTO THE 60S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL BE OCCLUDING...
SO RAIN SHOULD BE DELAYED OVER SOUTHERN WI UNTIL WED NIGHT AND
LINGER INTO THURSDAY. THE ECMWF IS ACTUALLY MUCH SLOWER THAN THE
GFS... AND DOES NOT CLEAR PRECIP OUT OF SOUTHEAST WI UNTIL EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. THE GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW WEAK ELEVATED
INSTABILITY... SO A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER COULD BE POSSIBLE.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY. THE 00Z
ECMWF CAME IN DRY ACROSS SOUTHERN WI NOW- IT USED TO BRING A BIG
SYSTEM INTO THE AREA.

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL CROSS WI ON SATURDAY WHICH COULD
BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES PER THE LATEST ECMWF... BUT I
KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TRACKING THROUGH WI COULD BRING A ROUND OF RAIN TO
SOUTHERN WI ON SUNDAY... BUT THE PLACEMENT IS STILL VERY UNCERTAIN.
THE RESULTING BAROCLINIC ZONE STALLING OVER CENTRAL WI HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BRING RAIN TO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF AND
GFS ARE BOTH SHOWING THIS AS OF THE 00Z RUN.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

LOOK FOR RAPIDLY DETERIORATING CONDITIONS THIS MORNING AS
PRECIPITATION MOVES IN QUICKLY. THE PRECIP SHOULD REACH MADISON BY 9
AM AND COULD INITIALLY BE SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN. PAVEMENT
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY BELOW FREEZING...BUT TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO
WARM QUICKLY AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE VERY RAPIDLY AFTER 12Z THIS
MORNING. THOSE PAVEMENT TEMPERATURES SHOULD RESPOND QUICKLY.  LOOK
FOR SOUTH WIND TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 25KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS REACHING
35KTS. THE WINDS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON.

THE PRECIP SHOULD REACH THE SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN TAF SITES BY 10 TO
11 AM AND WILL BE ALL RAIN BY THAT TIME.  THE INITIAL ROUND OF
PRECIP SHOULD LAST ABOUT 3 HOURS...THEN A LULL IS EXPECTED BEFORE
MORE SHOWERS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. THOSE SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON
WILL BE ALL RAIN AS HIGH TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE MID 40S. A COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...REACHING MADISON AROUND 5 PM
AND MILWAUKEE/KENOSHA BY ABOUT 7 PM.  WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT.

CIGS/VSBYS WILL LIKELY DROP TO IFR LEVELS WITH THE FIRST ROUND OF
PRECIP THAT MOVES IN THIS MORNING...LIFTING TO MVFR LEVELS THIS
AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL CLEAR IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT.

MARINE...

A DEEP TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION TODAY. LOOK FOR SOUTHERLY GALE FORCE WINDS TO DEVELOP QUICKLY
THIS MORNING...THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON. WE SHOULD SEE
GALES OF 35 TO 40KTS FOR A TIME...ESPECIALLY OUT TOWARD OPEN WATER.
WINDS WILL STEADILY DIMINISH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT WITH A GALE WARNING
STARTING AT 10 AM AND CONTINUING THROUGH 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON. ONCE
THE GALE WARNING EXPIRES...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST NORTHWEST IN
THE WAKE OF A PASSING COLD FRONT EARLY THIS EVENING.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WOOD
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DAVIS
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MRC





000
FXUS63 KMKX 291701 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1201 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...

CANCELLED FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY ACROSS THE AREA...AS SURFACE AND
ROAD TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED SUFFICIENTLY TO END THE FREEZING
RAIN HAZARD. INITIAL LINE OF MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE EAST OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT HOUR.

THERE WILL BE A FEW HOURS OF QUIET WEATHER WITH LOW CLOUDS
LINGERING...BEFORE NEXT BATCH OF RAIN SHOWERS MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS SECOND BATCH
IS BEING DRIVEN BY A SECONDARY 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM SLIDING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION. THIS SHOULD EXIT THE EAST BY EARLY
THIS EVENING.

TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT GUSTY
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS IN THE 31 TO 37
KNOT RANGE. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE WEST IN
ITS WAKE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S
ACROSS THE AREA...WITHIN WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

MAINLY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE WITH SOME BRIEF MIXED PRECIPITATION
WILL MOVE EAST OF THE EASTERN TAF SITES BY 18Z. THERE WILL BE A
PERIOD OF A FEW HOURS OF MVFR CEILINGS...BEFORE NEXT BATCH OF
RAIN SHOWERS MOVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA FROM MIDDLE TO LATE
AFTERNOON. MAY SEE MVFR VISIBILITIES WITH THE SHOWERS...AS MVFR
CEILINGS REMAIN.

GUSTY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL LINGER THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE
VEERING WEST BEHIND COLD FRONT BY EARLY EVENING. GUSTS TO 37 KNOTS
ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON.

WEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE WELL
TO THE SOUTH BRINGS LIGHTER WINDS. MVFR CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE AS WELL BY LATER TONIGHT. WEST WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHWEST LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON. WARM FRONT TRYING TO SET UP
ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD HELP BRING SOME CLOUDS...ALONG WITH SMALL
CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN. FOR NOW...WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT OF TAFS.

&&

.MARINE...

EXTENDED GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN. AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS NEAR
AND OVER THE LAKE SHOWING GUSTS REMAINING UP TO 40 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON...AS TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS OVER THE REGION.
HIGH WAVES OF 5 TO 7 FEET ARE EXPECTED AS WELL.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED TOINGHT...AFTER THE GALE
WARNING EXPIRES...AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLOWLY WEAKENS. GUSTY
WEST WINDS TO 30 KNOTS WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN...WITH WAVES SLOWLY
SUBSIDING AS WELL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

A QUICK HITTING AND VERY DYNAMIC SYSTEM WILL PUSH INTO THE WESTERN
FORECAST AREA RIGHT AROUND 12Z THIS MORNING.  THIS FIRST BATCH OF
PRECIP WILL BE A FAIRLY NARROW BAND...LASTING ABOUT 3 HOURS. TEMP
PROFILES INITIALLY IN THE WEST SUGGEST IT WILL BE FREEZING RAIN OR
SLEET BEFORE TEMPS RISE ABOVE FREEZING. PAVEMENT TEMPS FROM AREA DOT
PLATFORMS SHOW MOST SITES AT OR BELOW FREEZING. SO...IT COULD GET
SLICK FOR A SHORT TIME. THE WARM ADVECTION IS IMPRESSIVE ON RAPIDLY
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS MORNING. WE ARE PUSHING CLOSE TO
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT GIVEN THE PRECIP AND CLOUDS...THAT
WOULD BE TOUGH TO ACHIEVE. BUT...WE COULD STILL SEE A FEW GUSTS
APPROACHING 40 MPH. LOOK FOR WINDS TO RAPIDLY INCREASE AFTER
SUNRISE...THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE PRECIP
SHOULD REACH MADISON BY ABOUT 9 AM AND MILWAUKEE 10 TO 11 AM THIS
MORNING.

THERE COULD BE A DRY PERIOD FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER THE FIRST BATCH OF
WARM ADVECTION/STRONG Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE MOVES THROUGH. MORE
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
SOMEWHAT STEEP AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HIGHS TODAY
SHOULD HIT THE LOWER TO MID 40S. THAT FRONT SHOULD EXIT THE
SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND KENOSHA BY 00Z THIS
EVENING. DRIER AIR PUSHES IN QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT...SHUTTING
DOWN THE PRECIP AND BRINGING RAPIDLY CLEARING SKIES.

LONG TERM...

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

SHORTWAVE ENERGY ON THE NOSE OF AN UPPER JET WILL TRACK ALONG THE
850MB BAROCLINIC ZONE THROUGH CENTRAL WI MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
THE ECMWF IS CONSISTENTLY FARTHEST SOUTH WITH THIS FEATURE COMPARED
TO OTHER MODELS AND BRINGS A SWATH OF RAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE MKX
FORECAST AREA.

WINDS WILL SHIFT NNE ON TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THAT SYSTEM WHICH
WILL KEEP TEMPS COOLER NEAR THE LAKE. OTHERWISE... MAX TEMPS WILL BE
IN THE 50S BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL BUMP MAX TEMPS
INTO THE 60S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL BE OCCLUDING...
SO RAIN SHOULD BE DELAYED OVER SOUTHERN WI UNTIL WED NIGHT AND
LINGER INTO THURSDAY. THE ECMWF IS ACTUALLY MUCH SLOWER THAN THE
GFS... AND DOES NOT CLEAR PRECIP OUT OF SOUTHEAST WI UNTIL EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. THE GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW WEAK ELEVATED
INSTABILITY... SO A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER COULD BE POSSIBLE.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY. THE 00Z
ECMWF CAME IN DRY ACROSS SOUTHERN WI NOW- IT USED TO BRING A BIG
SYSTEM INTO THE AREA.

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL CROSS WI ON SATURDAY WHICH COULD
BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES PER THE LATEST ECMWF... BUT I
KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TRACKING THROUGH WI COULD BRING A ROUND OF RAIN TO
SOUTHERN WI ON SUNDAY... BUT THE PLACEMENT IS STILL VERY UNCERTAIN.
THE RESULTING BAROCLINIC ZONE STALLING OVER CENTRAL WI HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BRING RAIN TO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF AND
GFS ARE BOTH SHOWING THIS AS OF THE 00Z RUN.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

LOOK FOR RAPIDLY DETERIORATING CONDITIONS THIS MORNING AS
PRECIPITATION MOVES IN QUICKLY. THE PRECIP SHOULD REACH MADISON BY 9
AM AND COULD INITIALLY BE SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN. PAVEMENT
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY BELOW FREEZING...BUT TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO
WARM QUICKLY AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE VERY RAPIDLY AFTER 12Z THIS
MORNING. THOSE PAVEMENT TEMPERATURES SHOULD RESPOND QUICKLY.  LOOK
FOR SOUTH WIND TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 25KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS REACHING
35KTS. THE WINDS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON.

THE PRECIP SHOULD REACH THE SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN TAF SITES BY 10 TO
11 AM AND WILL BE ALL RAIN BY THAT TIME.  THE INITIAL ROUND OF
PRECIP SHOULD LAST ABOUT 3 HOURS...THEN A LULL IS EXPECTED BEFORE
MORE SHOWERS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. THOSE SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON
WILL BE ALL RAIN AS HIGH TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE MID 40S. A COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...REACHING MADISON AROUND 5 PM
AND MILWAUKEE/KENOSHA BY ABOUT 7 PM.  WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT.

CIGS/VSBYS WILL LIKELY DROP TO IFR LEVELS WITH THE FIRST ROUND OF
PRECIP THAT MOVES IN THIS MORNING...LIFTING TO MVFR LEVELS THIS
AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL CLEAR IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT.

MARINE...

A DEEP TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION TODAY. LOOK FOR SOUTHERLY GALE FORCE WINDS TO DEVELOP QUICKLY
THIS MORNING...THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON. WE SHOULD SEE
GALES OF 35 TO 40KTS FOR A TIME...ESPECIALLY OUT TOWARD OPEN WATER.
WINDS WILL STEADILY DIMINISH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT WITH A GALE WARNING
STARTING AT 10 AM AND CONTINUING THROUGH 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON. ONCE
THE GALE WARNING EXPIRES...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST NORTHWEST IN
THE WAKE OF A PASSING COLD FRONT EARLY THIS EVENING.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WOOD
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DAVIS
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MRC





000
FXUS63 KMKX 291701 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1201 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...

CANCELLED FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY ACROSS THE AREA...AS SURFACE AND
ROAD TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED SUFFICIENTLY TO END THE FREEZING
RAIN HAZARD. INITIAL LINE OF MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE EAST OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT HOUR.

THERE WILL BE A FEW HOURS OF QUIET WEATHER WITH LOW CLOUDS
LINGERING...BEFORE NEXT BATCH OF RAIN SHOWERS MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS SECOND BATCH
IS BEING DRIVEN BY A SECONDARY 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM SLIDING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION. THIS SHOULD EXIT THE EAST BY EARLY
THIS EVENING.

TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT GUSTY
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS IN THE 31 TO 37
KNOT RANGE. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE WEST IN
ITS WAKE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S
ACROSS THE AREA...WITHIN WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

MAINLY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE WITH SOME BRIEF MIXED PRECIPITATION
WILL MOVE EAST OF THE EASTERN TAF SITES BY 18Z. THERE WILL BE A
PERIOD OF A FEW HOURS OF MVFR CEILINGS...BEFORE NEXT BATCH OF
RAIN SHOWERS MOVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA FROM MIDDLE TO LATE
AFTERNOON. MAY SEE MVFR VISIBILITIES WITH THE SHOWERS...AS MVFR
CEILINGS REMAIN.

GUSTY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL LINGER THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE
VEERING WEST BEHIND COLD FRONT BY EARLY EVENING. GUSTS TO 37 KNOTS
ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON.

WEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE WELL
TO THE SOUTH BRINGS LIGHTER WINDS. MVFR CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE AS WELL BY LATER TONIGHT. WEST WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHWEST LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON. WARM FRONT TRYING TO SET UP
ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD HELP BRING SOME CLOUDS...ALONG WITH SMALL
CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN. FOR NOW...WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT OF TAFS.

&&

.MARINE...

EXTENDED GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN. AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS NEAR
AND OVER THE LAKE SHOWING GUSTS REMAINING UP TO 40 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON...AS TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS OVER THE REGION.
HIGH WAVES OF 5 TO 7 FEET ARE EXPECTED AS WELL.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED TOINGHT...AFTER THE GALE
WARNING EXPIRES...AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLOWLY WEAKENS. GUSTY
WEST WINDS TO 30 KNOTS WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN...WITH WAVES SLOWLY
SUBSIDING AS WELL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

A QUICK HITTING AND VERY DYNAMIC SYSTEM WILL PUSH INTO THE WESTERN
FORECAST AREA RIGHT AROUND 12Z THIS MORNING.  THIS FIRST BATCH OF
PRECIP WILL BE A FAIRLY NARROW BAND...LASTING ABOUT 3 HOURS. TEMP
PROFILES INITIALLY IN THE WEST SUGGEST IT WILL BE FREEZING RAIN OR
SLEET BEFORE TEMPS RISE ABOVE FREEZING. PAVEMENT TEMPS FROM AREA DOT
PLATFORMS SHOW MOST SITES AT OR BELOW FREEZING. SO...IT COULD GET
SLICK FOR A SHORT TIME. THE WARM ADVECTION IS IMPRESSIVE ON RAPIDLY
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS MORNING. WE ARE PUSHING CLOSE TO
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT GIVEN THE PRECIP AND CLOUDS...THAT
WOULD BE TOUGH TO ACHIEVE. BUT...WE COULD STILL SEE A FEW GUSTS
APPROACHING 40 MPH. LOOK FOR WINDS TO RAPIDLY INCREASE AFTER
SUNRISE...THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE PRECIP
SHOULD REACH MADISON BY ABOUT 9 AM AND MILWAUKEE 10 TO 11 AM THIS
MORNING.

THERE COULD BE A DRY PERIOD FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER THE FIRST BATCH OF
WARM ADVECTION/STRONG Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE MOVES THROUGH. MORE
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
SOMEWHAT STEEP AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HIGHS TODAY
SHOULD HIT THE LOWER TO MID 40S. THAT FRONT SHOULD EXIT THE
SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND KENOSHA BY 00Z THIS
EVENING. DRIER AIR PUSHES IN QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT...SHUTTING
DOWN THE PRECIP AND BRINGING RAPIDLY CLEARING SKIES.

LONG TERM...

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

SHORTWAVE ENERGY ON THE NOSE OF AN UPPER JET WILL TRACK ALONG THE
850MB BAROCLINIC ZONE THROUGH CENTRAL WI MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
THE ECMWF IS CONSISTENTLY FARTHEST SOUTH WITH THIS FEATURE COMPARED
TO OTHER MODELS AND BRINGS A SWATH OF RAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE MKX
FORECAST AREA.

WINDS WILL SHIFT NNE ON TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THAT SYSTEM WHICH
WILL KEEP TEMPS COOLER NEAR THE LAKE. OTHERWISE... MAX TEMPS WILL BE
IN THE 50S BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL BUMP MAX TEMPS
INTO THE 60S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL BE OCCLUDING...
SO RAIN SHOULD BE DELAYED OVER SOUTHERN WI UNTIL WED NIGHT AND
LINGER INTO THURSDAY. THE ECMWF IS ACTUALLY MUCH SLOWER THAN THE
GFS... AND DOES NOT CLEAR PRECIP OUT OF SOUTHEAST WI UNTIL EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. THE GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW WEAK ELEVATED
INSTABILITY... SO A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER COULD BE POSSIBLE.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY. THE 00Z
ECMWF CAME IN DRY ACROSS SOUTHERN WI NOW- IT USED TO BRING A BIG
SYSTEM INTO THE AREA.

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL CROSS WI ON SATURDAY WHICH COULD
BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES PER THE LATEST ECMWF... BUT I
KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TRACKING THROUGH WI COULD BRING A ROUND OF RAIN TO
SOUTHERN WI ON SUNDAY... BUT THE PLACEMENT IS STILL VERY UNCERTAIN.
THE RESULTING BAROCLINIC ZONE STALLING OVER CENTRAL WI HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BRING RAIN TO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF AND
GFS ARE BOTH SHOWING THIS AS OF THE 00Z RUN.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

LOOK FOR RAPIDLY DETERIORATING CONDITIONS THIS MORNING AS
PRECIPITATION MOVES IN QUICKLY. THE PRECIP SHOULD REACH MADISON BY 9
AM AND COULD INITIALLY BE SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN. PAVEMENT
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY BELOW FREEZING...BUT TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO
WARM QUICKLY AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE VERY RAPIDLY AFTER 12Z THIS
MORNING. THOSE PAVEMENT TEMPERATURES SHOULD RESPOND QUICKLY.  LOOK
FOR SOUTH WIND TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 25KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS REACHING
35KTS. THE WINDS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON.

THE PRECIP SHOULD REACH THE SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN TAF SITES BY 10 TO
11 AM AND WILL BE ALL RAIN BY THAT TIME.  THE INITIAL ROUND OF
PRECIP SHOULD LAST ABOUT 3 HOURS...THEN A LULL IS EXPECTED BEFORE
MORE SHOWERS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. THOSE SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON
WILL BE ALL RAIN AS HIGH TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE MID 40S. A COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...REACHING MADISON AROUND 5 PM
AND MILWAUKEE/KENOSHA BY ABOUT 7 PM.  WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT.

CIGS/VSBYS WILL LIKELY DROP TO IFR LEVELS WITH THE FIRST ROUND OF
PRECIP THAT MOVES IN THIS MORNING...LIFTING TO MVFR LEVELS THIS
AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL CLEAR IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT.

MARINE...

A DEEP TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION TODAY. LOOK FOR SOUTHERLY GALE FORCE WINDS TO DEVELOP QUICKLY
THIS MORNING...THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON. WE SHOULD SEE
GALES OF 35 TO 40KTS FOR A TIME...ESPECIALLY OUT TOWARD OPEN WATER.
WINDS WILL STEADILY DIMINISH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT WITH A GALE WARNING
STARTING AT 10 AM AND CONTINUING THROUGH 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON. ONCE
THE GALE WARNING EXPIRES...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST NORTHWEST IN
THE WAKE OF A PASSING COLD FRONT EARLY THIS EVENING.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WOOD
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DAVIS
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MRC




000
FXUS63 KMKX 290827
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
327 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

A QUICK HITTING AND VERY DYNAMIC SYSTEM WILL PUSH INTO THE WESTERN
FORECAST AREA RIGHT AROUND 12Z THIS MORNING.  THIS FIRST BATCH OF
PRECIP WILL BE A FAIRLY NARROW BAND...LASTING ABOUT 3 HOURS. TEMP
PROFILES INITIALLY IN THE WEST SUGGEST IT WILL BE FREEZING RAIN OR
SLEET BEFORE TEMPS RISE ABOVE FREEZING. PAVEMENT TEMPS FROM AREA DOT
PLATFORMS SHOW MOST SITES AT OR BELOW FREEZING. SO...IT COULD GET
SLICK FOR A SHORT TIME. THE WARM ADVECTION IS IMPRESSIVE ON RAPIDLY
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS MORNING. WE ARE PUSHING CLOSE TO
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT GIVEN THE PRECIP AND CLOUDS...THAT
WOULD BE TOUGH TO ACHIEVE. BUT...WE COULD STILL SEE A FEW GUSTS
APPROACHING 40 MPH. LOOK FOR WINDS TO RAPIDLY INCREASE AFTER
SUNRISE...THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE PRECIP
SHOULD REACH MADISON BY ABOUT 9 AM AND MILWAUKEE 10 TO 11 AM THIS
MORNING.

THERE COULD BE A DRY PERIOD FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER THE FIRST BATCH OF
WARM ADVECTION/STRONG Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE MOVES THROUGH. MORE
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
SOMEWHAT STEEP AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HIGHS TODAY
SHOULD HIT THE LOWER TO MID 40S. THAT FRONT SHOULD EXIT THE
SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND KENOSHA BY 00Z THIS
EVENING. DRIER AIR PUSHES IN QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT...SHUTTING
DOWN THE PRECIP AND BRINGING RAPIDLY CLEARING SKIES.

.LONG TERM...

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

SHORTWAVE ENERGY ON THE NOSE OF AN UPPER JET WILL TRACK ALONG THE
850MB BAROCLINIC ZONE THROUGH CENTRAL WI MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
THE ECMWF IS CONSISTENTLY FARTHEST SOUTH WITH THIS FEATURE COMPARED
TO OTHER MODELS AND BRINGS A SWATH OF RAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE MKX
FORECAST AREA.

WINDS WILL SHIFT NNE ON TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THAT SYSTEM WHICH
WILL KEEP TEMPS COOLER NEAR THE LAKE. OTHERWISE... MAX TEMPS WILL BE
IN THE 50S BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL BUMP MAX TEMPS
INTO THE 60S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL BE OCCLUDING...
SO RAIN SHOULD BE DELAYED OVER SOUTHERN WI UNTIL WED NIGHT AND
LINGER INTO THURSDAY. THE ECWMF IS ACTUALLY MUCH SLOWER THAN THE
GFS... AND DOES NOT CLEAR PRECIP OUT OF SOUTHEAST WI UNTIL EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. THE GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW WEAK ELEVATED
INSTABILITY... SO A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER COULD BE POSSIBLE.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY. THE 00Z
ECMWF CAME IN DRY ACROSS SOUTHERN WI NOW- IT USED TO BRING A BIG
SYSTEM INTO THE AREA.

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL CROSS WI ON SATURDAY WHICH COULD
BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES PER THE LATEST ECWMF... BUT I
KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TRACKING THROUGH WI COULD BRING A ROUND OF RAIN TO
SOUTHERN WI ON SUNDAY... BUT THE PLACEMENT IS STILL VERY UNCERTAIN.
THE RESULTING BAROCLINIC ZONE STALLING OVER CENTRAL WI HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BRING RAIN TO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF AND
GFS ARE BOTH SHOWING THIS AS OF THE 00Z RUN.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

LOOK FOR RAPIDLY DETERIORATING CONDITIONS THIS MORNING AS
PRECIPITATION MOVES IN QUICKLY. THE PRECIP SHOULD REACH MADISON BY 9
AM AND COULD INITIALLY BE SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN. PAVEMENT
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY BELOW FREEZING...BUT TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO
WARM QUICKLY AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE VERY RAPIDLY AFTER 12Z THIS
MORNING. THOSE PAVEMENT TEMPERATURES SHOULD RESPOND QUICKLY.  LOOK
FOR SOUTH WIND TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 25KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS REACHING
35KTS. THE WINDS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON.

THE PRECIP SHOULD REACH THE SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN TAF SITES BY 10 TO
11 AM AND WILL BE ALL RAIN BY THAT TIME.  THE INITIAL ROUND OF
PRECIP SHOULD LAST ABOUT 3 HOURS...THEN A LULL IS EXPECTED BEFORE
MORE SHOWERS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. THOSE SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON
WILL BE ALL RAIN AS HIGH TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE MID 40S. A COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...REACHING MADISON AROUND 5 PM
AND MILWAUKEE/KENOSHA BY ABOUT 7 PM.  WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT.

CIGS/VSBYS WILL LIKELY DROP TO IFR LEVELS WITH THE FIRST ROUND OF
PRECIP THAT MOVES IN THIS MORNING...LIFTING TO MVFR LEVELS THIS
AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL CLEAR IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...

A DEEP TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION TODAY. LOOK FOR SOUTHERLY GALE FORCE WINDS TO DEVELOP QUICKLY
THIS MORNING...THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON. WE SHOULD SEE
GALES OF 35 TO 40KTS FOR A TIME...ESPECIALLY OUT TOWARD OPEN WATER.
WINDS WILL STEADILY DIMINISH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT WITH A GALE WARNING
STARTING AT 10 AM AND CONTINUING THROUGH 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON. ONCE
THE GALE WARNING EXPIRES...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST NORTHWEST IN
THE WAKE OF A PASSING COLD FRONT EARLY THIS EVENING.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR LMZ645-646.

     GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR LMZ643>646.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR LMZ643-644.

&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DAVIS
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MRC





000
FXUS63 KMKX 290827
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
327 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

A QUICK HITTING AND VERY DYNAMIC SYSTEM WILL PUSH INTO THE WESTERN
FORECAST AREA RIGHT AROUND 12Z THIS MORNING.  THIS FIRST BATCH OF
PRECIP WILL BE A FAIRLY NARROW BAND...LASTING ABOUT 3 HOURS. TEMP
PROFILES INITIALLY IN THE WEST SUGGEST IT WILL BE FREEZING RAIN OR
SLEET BEFORE TEMPS RISE ABOVE FREEZING. PAVEMENT TEMPS FROM AREA DOT
PLATFORMS SHOW MOST SITES AT OR BELOW FREEZING. SO...IT COULD GET
SLICK FOR A SHORT TIME. THE WARM ADVECTION IS IMPRESSIVE ON RAPIDLY
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS MORNING. WE ARE PUSHING CLOSE TO
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT GIVEN THE PRECIP AND CLOUDS...THAT
WOULD BE TOUGH TO ACHIEVE. BUT...WE COULD STILL SEE A FEW GUSTS
APPROACHING 40 MPH. LOOK FOR WINDS TO RAPIDLY INCREASE AFTER
SUNRISE...THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE PRECIP
SHOULD REACH MADISON BY ABOUT 9 AM AND MILWAUKEE 10 TO 11 AM THIS
MORNING.

THERE COULD BE A DRY PERIOD FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER THE FIRST BATCH OF
WARM ADVECTION/STRONG Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE MOVES THROUGH. MORE
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
SOMEWHAT STEEP AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HIGHS TODAY
SHOULD HIT THE LOWER TO MID 40S. THAT FRONT SHOULD EXIT THE
SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND KENOSHA BY 00Z THIS
EVENING. DRIER AIR PUSHES IN QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT...SHUTTING
DOWN THE PRECIP AND BRINGING RAPIDLY CLEARING SKIES.

.LONG TERM...

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

SHORTWAVE ENERGY ON THE NOSE OF AN UPPER JET WILL TRACK ALONG THE
850MB BAROCLINIC ZONE THROUGH CENTRAL WI MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
THE ECMWF IS CONSISTENTLY FARTHEST SOUTH WITH THIS FEATURE COMPARED
TO OTHER MODELS AND BRINGS A SWATH OF RAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE MKX
FORECAST AREA.

WINDS WILL SHIFT NNE ON TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THAT SYSTEM WHICH
WILL KEEP TEMPS COOLER NEAR THE LAKE. OTHERWISE... MAX TEMPS WILL BE
IN THE 50S BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL BUMP MAX TEMPS
INTO THE 60S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL BE OCCLUDING...
SO RAIN SHOULD BE DELAYED OVER SOUTHERN WI UNTIL WED NIGHT AND
LINGER INTO THURSDAY. THE ECWMF IS ACTUALLY MUCH SLOWER THAN THE
GFS... AND DOES NOT CLEAR PRECIP OUT OF SOUTHEAST WI UNTIL EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. THE GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW WEAK ELEVATED
INSTABILITY... SO A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER COULD BE POSSIBLE.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY. THE 00Z
ECMWF CAME IN DRY ACROSS SOUTHERN WI NOW- IT USED TO BRING A BIG
SYSTEM INTO THE AREA.

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL CROSS WI ON SATURDAY WHICH COULD
BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES PER THE LATEST ECWMF... BUT I
KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TRACKING THROUGH WI COULD BRING A ROUND OF RAIN TO
SOUTHERN WI ON SUNDAY... BUT THE PLACEMENT IS STILL VERY UNCERTAIN.
THE RESULTING BAROCLINIC ZONE STALLING OVER CENTRAL WI HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BRING RAIN TO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF AND
GFS ARE BOTH SHOWING THIS AS OF THE 00Z RUN.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

LOOK FOR RAPIDLY DETERIORATING CONDITIONS THIS MORNING AS
PRECIPITATION MOVES IN QUICKLY. THE PRECIP SHOULD REACH MADISON BY 9
AM AND COULD INITIALLY BE SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN. PAVEMENT
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY BELOW FREEZING...BUT TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO
WARM QUICKLY AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE VERY RAPIDLY AFTER 12Z THIS
MORNING. THOSE PAVEMENT TEMPERATURES SHOULD RESPOND QUICKLY.  LOOK
FOR SOUTH WIND TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 25KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS REACHING
35KTS. THE WINDS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON.

THE PRECIP SHOULD REACH THE SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN TAF SITES BY 10 TO
11 AM AND WILL BE ALL RAIN BY THAT TIME.  THE INITIAL ROUND OF
PRECIP SHOULD LAST ABOUT 3 HOURS...THEN A LULL IS EXPECTED BEFORE
MORE SHOWERS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. THOSE SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON
WILL BE ALL RAIN AS HIGH TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE MID 40S. A COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...REACHING MADISON AROUND 5 PM
AND MILWAUKEE/KENOSHA BY ABOUT 7 PM.  WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT.

CIGS/VSBYS WILL LIKELY DROP TO IFR LEVELS WITH THE FIRST ROUND OF
PRECIP THAT MOVES IN THIS MORNING...LIFTING TO MVFR LEVELS THIS
AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL CLEAR IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...

A DEEP TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION TODAY. LOOK FOR SOUTHERLY GALE FORCE WINDS TO DEVELOP QUICKLY
THIS MORNING...THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON. WE SHOULD SEE
GALES OF 35 TO 40KTS FOR A TIME...ESPECIALLY OUT TOWARD OPEN WATER.
WINDS WILL STEADILY DIMINISH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT WITH A GALE WARNING
STARTING AT 10 AM AND CONTINUING THROUGH 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON. ONCE
THE GALE WARNING EXPIRES...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST NORTHWEST IN
THE WAKE OF A PASSING COLD FRONT EARLY THIS EVENING.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR LMZ645-646.

     GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR LMZ643>646.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR LMZ643-644.

&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DAVIS
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MRC




000
FXUS63 KMKX 290246
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
946 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AND BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL
SLOW DOWN EARLY EVENING TEMPERATURE FALL. AS IS...STILL NEEDED TO
LOWER THE OVERNIGHT MINIMUM TEMPS IN A FEW SPOTS DUE TO EARLY
EVENING FALL. AIR MASS REMAINS VERY DRY...BUT RAPIDLY INCREASING
LOW LEVEL JET LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MRNG WILL PULL SURGE OF
DEEPER MOISTURE QUICKLY INTO THE AREA. PWAT VALUES INCREASE TO
AROUND 0.75 INCH SUN MRNG. STRONG FORCING FROM VIGOROUS SHORT
WAVE AND STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN A 2 TO 4 HOUR
PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIPITATION ACROSS SRN WI...SPREADING INTO THE
WEST 12-13Z...REACHING THE EAST 15-16Z.

EXPECT WRN CWA TO BE CLOSER TO SURGE OF WARMER LOW LEVEL AIR.
HENCE LIKELY SLEET AND RAIN CHANGING TO MOSTLY RAIN. HOWEVER
TIMING CRITICAL AND MAY BE A 1 TO 2 HOUR PERIOD WHEN SFC TEMPS
AROUND FREEZING. THEREFORE STILL A POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN. FARTHER EAST...SFC TEMPS WL HAVE TIME TO WARM...HOWEVER MORE
DRY AIR IN PLACE AND EVAPORATIVE COOLING MAY RESULT IN MORE OF A
RAIN...SLEET MIXTURE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THE LATE MORNING SHOW
THE COLUMN COOLING AROUND 17-18Z POSSIBLY RESULTING IN SOME SNOW
MIXED IN...HOWEVER BEGIN TO LOSE ICE CRYSTALS FALLING INTO CLOUD
LAYER AT THIS TIME. EARLIER THIS EVENING ISSUED SPS AND TOP NEWS
STORY TO WEBSITE TO HIGHLIGHT MIX THREAT.

LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL PREVENT STRONGEST WINDS FROM REACHING SFC
ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER STILL EXPECT WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH...WITH A FEW SPOTS REACHING
30 MPH.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...EXPECT A PERIOD OF MIXED SLEET AND RAIN TO
SWEEP ACROSS TAF SITES SUN MRNG. MAY BE A PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN AT KMSN 14-15Z. RAIN AND SLEET MAY BE MIXED WITH SNOW IN ERN
TAF SITES. MIXED PRECIP WL END IN THE LATE MRNG AND EARLY AFTN
WITH LINGERING SCT -SHRA IN THE AFTN. EXPC VFR CONDITIONS TO
RETURN IN THE AFTN OR EVE. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS MAY REACH 35KTS
ON SUN. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT INTO SUN MRNG.

&&

.MARINE...RAPIDLY TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT WILL CAUSE SOUTH WINDS TO
BEGIN GUSTING IN EXCESS OF 22KTS LATER TONIGHT. THE STRONGEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED FROM MID-MORNING SUNDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON WHEN
GALE FORCE GUSTS OF 35 TO 40KTS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO VIGOROUS
WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING THRU WESTERN GTLAKES. HENCE STATUS QUO ON
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STARTING UP LATER TONIGHT AND GALE WARNING ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

SHORT TERM MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
FURTHER EAST SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION. PRESSURE GRADIENT GRADUALLY
TIGHTENS LATER TONIGHT...AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT/500 MB
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. SOUTH WINDS INCREASE LATER TONIGHT AS A
RESULT...WITH SOME GUSTINESS TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY MORNING.

MIDDLE TO HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE AREA
LATER TONIGHT AS WELL. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD OCCUR LATER THIS
EVENING...THEN HOLD STEADY OR RISE SLIGHTLY WITH STRONG WARM AIR
ADVECTION PUSHING INTO THE AREA.

SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE
TIMING OF PRECIPITATION WITH THE STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION...AS WELL
AS THE PASSING 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT. FIRST
BATCH OF MIXED PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THE MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A SECOND ROUND OF RAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH A SECONDARY 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

THE PRECIPITATION TYPES WITH THE FIRST BATCH OF PRECIPITATION WILL
BE TRICKY...CONFIDENCE HERE IS MEDIUM. AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM
NAM/GFS SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND LIGHT
SLEET...DEPENDING ON IF ICE CRYSTALS ARE INTRODUCED INTO THE AIR
COLUMN AND THE MAGNITUDE OF THE WARM LAYER IN THE LOW LEVELS. CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME LIGHT SNOW AT THE ONSET AS WELL. IF TEMPERATURES WARM
UP QUICKER THAN EXPECTED...LIGHT RAIN MAY OCCUR WITHOUT THE MIXED
PRECIPITATION.

FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE WITH THE MIXED PRECIPITATION TYPES WORDING
FOR SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM ENOUGH FOR MOSTLY LIGHT
RAIN BY 15Z TO 16Z SUNDAY...THOUGH LIGHT SLEET REMAINS POSSIBLE
UNTIL MIDDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID 40S DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

THE 250 MB UPPER TROUGH EXITS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
A NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW MONDAY. FAIRLY NEUTRAL UPPER DIVERGENCE.
850/700 MB WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURS SUNDAY NIGHT AS A TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES MONDAY. DOWNWARD 700 MB MOTION
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING WITH WEAK UPWARD MOTION MONDAY
AFTERNOON. 850/700 MB RH IS DRY UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE 700
MB LAYER SATURATES.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

A JET MAX SWINGS THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW TUESDAY AS A 250 MB
UPPER RIDGE MOVES INTO THE DAKOTAS. THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
INCREASES MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUES UNTIL THE EARLY AFTERNOON
OVER THE SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY. 850/700 MB WARM AIR ADVECTION
IS QUITE STRONG MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE COOLING TUESDAY. WEAK 700 MB
UPWARD MOTION OCCURS EARLY MONDAY EVENING BEFORE INCREASING TO
FAIRLY STRONG VALUES MAINLY FROM NORTH OF MILWAUKEE AND ACROSS
EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. 700 MB RH IS NEARLY SATURATED MONDAY
EVENING BEFORE DRYING FROM THE WEST. MONDAY EVENING THE 700 MB
LAYER SATURATES. 850 MB LAYERS DO NOT SATURATE BUT DO INCREASE
FROM THE NORTH TUESDAY BRINGING A POTENTIAL BAND OF SHALLOW
STRATOCUMULUS. HOWEVER WITH MIXING THIS MAY STAY SCATTERED.

THE GFS IS DRY MONDAY NIGHT BUT THE ECMWF BRINGS PRECIPITATION TO
ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHWEST AREAS...WITH THE NAM KEEPING IT OVER
NORTHEAST AREAS OF THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY TOWARD
SHEBOYGAN. GIVEN THE SURFACE AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES...IT WOULD
BE RAIN IF IT HAPPENS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT THEN THROUGH THE
REGION TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS WISCONSIN MONDAY
MORNING WITH THE UPPER FLOW BECOMING WEST/SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. AS THE HIGH RECEDES EAST TUESDAY EVENING...WARM AIR
ADVECTION OCCURS WEDNESDAY WITH SOUTH WINDS. THE MODELS KEEP THE
PRECIPITATION OFF TO THE WEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

A SHORTWAVE EXITS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY EVENING...AND
MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE SUPERIOR AREA THURSDAY MORNING ON THE GFS.
THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE WEAKER AND SLOWER. AS A RESULT THE ECMWF IS
SLOWER WITH THE COLD FRONT AND PRECIPITATION AS A STRONG LOW MOVES
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THE GFS HAS ALL THE PRECIPITATION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE ECMWF LINGERING IT INTO WEDNESDAY.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW.

THE MODELS DIVERGE AS WE GET TO FRIDAY. WHILE THE ECMWF WAS WEAKER
WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE THURSDAY...IT IS STRONGER WITH
A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS WISCONSIN AND THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY FRIDAY. AS A RESULT THE ECMWF BRINGS A STRONG DEEPENING LOW
ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS TOWARDS LOWER MICHIGAN...WHILE THE GFS
TRACKS A SOMEWHAT WEAKER LOW ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER AREA. THE GFS
ONLY BRINGS SOME PRECIPITATION...LIKELY SNOW TO THE ILLINOIS
BORDER AREA. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW
CHANGING TO SNOW FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING...WITH HEAVY
PRECIPITATION JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT TAF SITES TONIGHT. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
LINGER AT THE EASTERN SITES INTO EARLY EVENING...BEFORE BECOMING
SOUTH. SOUTH WINDS WILL REMAIN AT MADISON. MIDDLE TO HIGH CLOUDS
WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD INTO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT.

SOUTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN MAGNITUDE LATER
TONIGHT...WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY MORNING...BECOMING
WESTERLY LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 45 TO 50 KNOTS
AT 2000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL BETWEEN 09Z AND 14Z SUNDAY WILL
BRING LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS.

COLD FRONT AND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST THROUGH THE REGION
SUNDAY WILL BRING A ROUND OF MIXED PRECIPITATION TO TAF SITES IN THE
MORNING. A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN AND LIGHT SLEET SHOULD MOVE EAST INTO
MADISON BY 14Z SUNDAY...AND THE EASTERN SITES BY 15Z SUNDAY.

LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE AT TIMES...ALONG WITH LIGHT SNOW AT
THE ONSET. CONFIDENCE HERE IS MEDIUM AND THINGS COULD CHANGE IN
LATER FORECASTS. ANY ACCUMULATIONS OF LIGHT SNOW/SLEET WILL BE JUST
A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH AT BEST...WITH A LIGHT GLAZING POSSIBLE AS
WELL. KEEP UP WITH LATER FORECASTS.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM ENOUGH FOR A CHANGEOVER TO ALL LIGHT RAIN
BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z SUNDAY...LINGERING INTO THE AFTERNOON. CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER MVFR TO IFR CATEGORIES
SUNDAY...BUT ABOVE ALTERNATE MINIMUMS.

MARINE...

A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AND LINGER INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EAST TOWARD AND THROUGH THE
REGION. INCREASING SOUTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY LATER TONIGHT...THEN
VEER SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY...THEN WEST LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

FREQUENT GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE NEARSHORE
WATERS. WAVES SHOULD BUILD TO 3 TO 6 FEET. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS
IN EFFECT FOR THIS PERIOD.

FREQUENT GUSTS TO 35 KNOT GALES ARE THEN ANTICIPATED FOR MOST OF
SUNDAY...WHERE A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT. WAVES SHOULD BUILD
TO 5 TO 10 FEET. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED LATER SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...AS WINDS AND WAVES SLOWLY SUBSIDE.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ645-
     646.

     GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 4 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ643-
     644.

&&

$$
UPDATE...MBK





000
FXUS63 KMKX 290246
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
946 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AND BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL
SLOW DOWN EARLY EVENING TEMPERATURE FALL. AS IS...STILL NEEDED TO
LOWER THE OVERNIGHT MINIMUM TEMPS IN A FEW SPOTS DUE TO EARLY
EVENING FALL. AIR MASS REMAINS VERY DRY...BUT RAPIDLY INCREASING
LOW LEVEL JET LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MRNG WILL PULL SURGE OF
DEEPER MOISTURE QUICKLY INTO THE AREA. PWAT VALUES INCREASE TO
AROUND 0.75 INCH SUN MRNG. STRONG FORCING FROM VIGOROUS SHORT
WAVE AND STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN A 2 TO 4 HOUR
PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIPITATION ACROSS SRN WI...SPREADING INTO THE
WEST 12-13Z...REACHING THE EAST 15-16Z.

EXPECT WRN CWA TO BE CLOSER TO SURGE OF WARMER LOW LEVEL AIR.
HENCE LIKELY SLEET AND RAIN CHANGING TO MOSTLY RAIN. HOWEVER
TIMING CRITICAL AND MAY BE A 1 TO 2 HOUR PERIOD WHEN SFC TEMPS
AROUND FREEZING. THEREFORE STILL A POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN. FARTHER EAST...SFC TEMPS WL HAVE TIME TO WARM...HOWEVER MORE
DRY AIR IN PLACE AND EVAPORATIVE COOLING MAY RESULT IN MORE OF A
RAIN...SLEET MIXTURE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THE LATE MORNING SHOW
THE COLUMN COOLING AROUND 17-18Z POSSIBLY RESULTING IN SOME SNOW
MIXED IN...HOWEVER BEGIN TO LOSE ICE CRYSTALS FALLING INTO CLOUD
LAYER AT THIS TIME. EARLIER THIS EVENING ISSUED SPS AND TOP NEWS
STORY TO WEBSITE TO HIGHLIGHT MIX THREAT.

LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL PREVENT STRONGEST WINDS FROM REACHING SFC
ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER STILL EXPECT WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH...WITH A FEW SPOTS REACHING
30 MPH.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...EXPECT A PERIOD OF MIXED SLEET AND RAIN TO
SWEEP ACROSS TAF SITES SUN MRNG. MAY BE A PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN AT KMSN 14-15Z. RAIN AND SLEET MAY BE MIXED WITH SNOW IN ERN
TAF SITES. MIXED PRECIP WL END IN THE LATE MRNG AND EARLY AFTN
WITH LINGERING SCT -SHRA IN THE AFTN. EXPC VFR CONDITIONS TO
RETURN IN THE AFTN OR EVE. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS MAY REACH 35KTS
ON SUN. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT INTO SUN MRNG.

&&

.MARINE...RAPIDLY TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT WILL CAUSE SOUTH WINDS TO
BEGIN GUSTING IN EXCESS OF 22KTS LATER TONIGHT. THE STRONGEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED FROM MID-MORNING SUNDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON WHEN
GALE FORCE GUSTS OF 35 TO 40KTS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO VIGOROUS
WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING THRU WESTERN GTLAKES. HENCE STATUS QUO ON
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STARTING UP LATER TONIGHT AND GALE WARNING ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

SHORT TERM MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
FURTHER EAST SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION. PRESSURE GRADIENT GRADUALLY
TIGHTENS LATER TONIGHT...AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT/500 MB
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. SOUTH WINDS INCREASE LATER TONIGHT AS A
RESULT...WITH SOME GUSTINESS TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY MORNING.

MIDDLE TO HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE AREA
LATER TONIGHT AS WELL. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD OCCUR LATER THIS
EVENING...THEN HOLD STEADY OR RISE SLIGHTLY WITH STRONG WARM AIR
ADVECTION PUSHING INTO THE AREA.

SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE
TIMING OF PRECIPITATION WITH THE STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION...AS WELL
AS THE PASSING 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT. FIRST
BATCH OF MIXED PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THE MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A SECOND ROUND OF RAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH A SECONDARY 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

THE PRECIPITATION TYPES WITH THE FIRST BATCH OF PRECIPITATION WILL
BE TRICKY...CONFIDENCE HERE IS MEDIUM. AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM
NAM/GFS SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND LIGHT
SLEET...DEPENDING ON IF ICE CRYSTALS ARE INTRODUCED INTO THE AIR
COLUMN AND THE MAGNITUDE OF THE WARM LAYER IN THE LOW LEVELS. CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME LIGHT SNOW AT THE ONSET AS WELL. IF TEMPERATURES WARM
UP QUICKER THAN EXPECTED...LIGHT RAIN MAY OCCUR WITHOUT THE MIXED
PRECIPITATION.

FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE WITH THE MIXED PRECIPITATION TYPES WORDING
FOR SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM ENOUGH FOR MOSTLY LIGHT
RAIN BY 15Z TO 16Z SUNDAY...THOUGH LIGHT SLEET REMAINS POSSIBLE
UNTIL MIDDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID 40S DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

THE 250 MB UPPER TROUGH EXITS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
A NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW MONDAY. FAIRLY NEUTRAL UPPER DIVERGENCE.
850/700 MB WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURS SUNDAY NIGHT AS A TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES MONDAY. DOWNWARD 700 MB MOTION
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING WITH WEAK UPWARD MOTION MONDAY
AFTERNOON. 850/700 MB RH IS DRY UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE 700
MB LAYER SATURATES.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

A JET MAX SWINGS THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW TUESDAY AS A 250 MB
UPPER RIDGE MOVES INTO THE DAKOTAS. THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
INCREASES MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUES UNTIL THE EARLY AFTERNOON
OVER THE SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY. 850/700 MB WARM AIR ADVECTION
IS QUITE STRONG MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE COOLING TUESDAY. WEAK 700 MB
UPWARD MOTION OCCURS EARLY MONDAY EVENING BEFORE INCREASING TO
FAIRLY STRONG VALUES MAINLY FROM NORTH OF MILWAUKEE AND ACROSS
EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. 700 MB RH IS NEARLY SATURATED MONDAY
EVENING BEFORE DRYING FROM THE WEST. MONDAY EVENING THE 700 MB
LAYER SATURATES. 850 MB LAYERS DO NOT SATURATE BUT DO INCREASE
FROM THE NORTH TUESDAY BRINGING A POTENTIAL BAND OF SHALLOW
STRATOCUMULUS. HOWEVER WITH MIXING THIS MAY STAY SCATTERED.

THE GFS IS DRY MONDAY NIGHT BUT THE ECMWF BRINGS PRECIPITATION TO
ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHWEST AREAS...WITH THE NAM KEEPING IT OVER
NORTHEAST AREAS OF THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY TOWARD
SHEBOYGAN. GIVEN THE SURFACE AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES...IT WOULD
BE RAIN IF IT HAPPENS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT THEN THROUGH THE
REGION TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS WISCONSIN MONDAY
MORNING WITH THE UPPER FLOW BECOMING WEST/SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. AS THE HIGH RECEDES EAST TUESDAY EVENING...WARM AIR
ADVECTION OCCURS WEDNESDAY WITH SOUTH WINDS. THE MODELS KEEP THE
PRECIPITATION OFF TO THE WEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

A SHORTWAVE EXITS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY EVENING...AND
MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE SUPERIOR AREA THURSDAY MORNING ON THE GFS.
THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE WEAKER AND SLOWER. AS A RESULT THE ECMWF IS
SLOWER WITH THE COLD FRONT AND PRECIPITATION AS A STRONG LOW MOVES
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THE GFS HAS ALL THE PRECIPITATION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE ECMWF LINGERING IT INTO WEDNESDAY.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW.

THE MODELS DIVERGE AS WE GET TO FRIDAY. WHILE THE ECMWF WAS WEAKER
WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE THURSDAY...IT IS STRONGER WITH
A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS WISCONSIN AND THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY FRIDAY. AS A RESULT THE ECMWF BRINGS A STRONG DEEPENING LOW
ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS TOWARDS LOWER MICHIGAN...WHILE THE GFS
TRACKS A SOMEWHAT WEAKER LOW ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER AREA. THE GFS
ONLY BRINGS SOME PRECIPITATION...LIKELY SNOW TO THE ILLINOIS
BORDER AREA. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW
CHANGING TO SNOW FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING...WITH HEAVY
PRECIPITATION JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT TAF SITES TONIGHT. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
LINGER AT THE EASTERN SITES INTO EARLY EVENING...BEFORE BECOMING
SOUTH. SOUTH WINDS WILL REMAIN AT MADISON. MIDDLE TO HIGH CLOUDS
WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD INTO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT.

SOUTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN MAGNITUDE LATER
TONIGHT...WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY MORNING...BECOMING
WESTERLY LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 45 TO 50 KNOTS
AT 2000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL BETWEEN 09Z AND 14Z SUNDAY WILL
BRING LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS.

COLD FRONT AND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST THROUGH THE REGION
SUNDAY WILL BRING A ROUND OF MIXED PRECIPITATION TO TAF SITES IN THE
MORNING. A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN AND LIGHT SLEET SHOULD MOVE EAST INTO
MADISON BY 14Z SUNDAY...AND THE EASTERN SITES BY 15Z SUNDAY.

LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE AT TIMES...ALONG WITH LIGHT SNOW AT
THE ONSET. CONFIDENCE HERE IS MEDIUM AND THINGS COULD CHANGE IN
LATER FORECASTS. ANY ACCUMULATIONS OF LIGHT SNOW/SLEET WILL BE JUST
A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH AT BEST...WITH A LIGHT GLAZING POSSIBLE AS
WELL. KEEP UP WITH LATER FORECASTS.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM ENOUGH FOR A CHANGEOVER TO ALL LIGHT RAIN
BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z SUNDAY...LINGERING INTO THE AFTERNOON. CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER MVFR TO IFR CATEGORIES
SUNDAY...BUT ABOVE ALTERNATE MINIMUMS.

MARINE...

A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AND LINGER INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EAST TOWARD AND THROUGH THE
REGION. INCREASING SOUTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY LATER TONIGHT...THEN
VEER SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY...THEN WEST LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

FREQUENT GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE NEARSHORE
WATERS. WAVES SHOULD BUILD TO 3 TO 6 FEET. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS
IN EFFECT FOR THIS PERIOD.

FREQUENT GUSTS TO 35 KNOT GALES ARE THEN ANTICIPATED FOR MOST OF
SUNDAY...WHERE A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT. WAVES SHOULD BUILD
TO 5 TO 10 FEET. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED LATER SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...AS WINDS AND WAVES SLOWLY SUBSIDE.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ645-
     646.

     GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 4 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ643-
     644.

&&

$$
UPDATE...MBK




000
FXUS63 KMKX 290246
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
946 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AND BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL
SLOW DOWN EARLY EVENING TEMPERATURE FALL. AS IS...STILL NEEDED TO
LOWER THE OVERNIGHT MINIMUM TEMPS IN A FEW SPOTS DUE TO EARLY
EVENING FALL. AIR MASS REMAINS VERY DRY...BUT RAPIDLY INCREASING
LOW LEVEL JET LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MRNG WILL PULL SURGE OF
DEEPER MOISTURE QUICKLY INTO THE AREA. PWAT VALUES INCREASE TO
AROUND 0.75 INCH SUN MRNG. STRONG FORCING FROM VIGOROUS SHORT
WAVE AND STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN A 2 TO 4 HOUR
PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIPITATION ACROSS SRN WI...SPREADING INTO THE
WEST 12-13Z...REACHING THE EAST 15-16Z.

EXPECT WRN CWA TO BE CLOSER TO SURGE OF WARMER LOW LEVEL AIR.
HENCE LIKELY SLEET AND RAIN CHANGING TO MOSTLY RAIN. HOWEVER
TIMING CRITICAL AND MAY BE A 1 TO 2 HOUR PERIOD WHEN SFC TEMPS
AROUND FREEZING. THEREFORE STILL A POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN. FARTHER EAST...SFC TEMPS WL HAVE TIME TO WARM...HOWEVER MORE
DRY AIR IN PLACE AND EVAPORATIVE COOLING MAY RESULT IN MORE OF A
RAIN...SLEET MIXTURE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THE LATE MORNING SHOW
THE COLUMN COOLING AROUND 17-18Z POSSIBLY RESULTING IN SOME SNOW
MIXED IN...HOWEVER BEGIN TO LOSE ICE CRYSTALS FALLING INTO CLOUD
LAYER AT THIS TIME. EARLIER THIS EVENING ISSUED SPS AND TOP NEWS
STORY TO WEBSITE TO HIGHLIGHT MIX THREAT.

LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL PREVENT STRONGEST WINDS FROM REACHING SFC
ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER STILL EXPECT WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH...WITH A FEW SPOTS REACHING
30 MPH.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...EXPECT A PERIOD OF MIXED SLEET AND RAIN TO
SWEEP ACROSS TAF SITES SUN MRNG. MAY BE A PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN AT KMSN 14-15Z. RAIN AND SLEET MAY BE MIXED WITH SNOW IN ERN
TAF SITES. MIXED PRECIP WL END IN THE LATE MRNG AND EARLY AFTN
WITH LINGERING SCT -SHRA IN THE AFTN. EXPC VFR CONDITIONS TO
RETURN IN THE AFTN OR EVE. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS MAY REACH 35KTS
ON SUN. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT INTO SUN MRNG.

&&

.MARINE...RAPIDLY TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT WILL CAUSE SOUTH WINDS TO
BEGIN GUSTING IN EXCESS OF 22KTS LATER TONIGHT. THE STRONGEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED FROM MID-MORNING SUNDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON WHEN
GALE FORCE GUSTS OF 35 TO 40KTS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO VIGOROUS
WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING THRU WESTERN GTLAKES. HENCE STATUS QUO ON
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STARTING UP LATER TONIGHT AND GALE WARNING ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

SHORT TERM MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
FURTHER EAST SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION. PRESSURE GRADIENT GRADUALLY
TIGHTENS LATER TONIGHT...AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT/500 MB
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. SOUTH WINDS INCREASE LATER TONIGHT AS A
RESULT...WITH SOME GUSTINESS TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY MORNING.

MIDDLE TO HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE AREA
LATER TONIGHT AS WELL. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD OCCUR LATER THIS
EVENING...THEN HOLD STEADY OR RISE SLIGHTLY WITH STRONG WARM AIR
ADVECTION PUSHING INTO THE AREA.

SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE
TIMING OF PRECIPITATION WITH THE STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION...AS WELL
AS THE PASSING 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT. FIRST
BATCH OF MIXED PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THE MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A SECOND ROUND OF RAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH A SECONDARY 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

THE PRECIPITATION TYPES WITH THE FIRST BATCH OF PRECIPITATION WILL
BE TRICKY...CONFIDENCE HERE IS MEDIUM. AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM
NAM/GFS SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND LIGHT
SLEET...DEPENDING ON IF ICE CRYSTALS ARE INTRODUCED INTO THE AIR
COLUMN AND THE MAGNITUDE OF THE WARM LAYER IN THE LOW LEVELS. CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME LIGHT SNOW AT THE ONSET AS WELL. IF TEMPERATURES WARM
UP QUICKER THAN EXPECTED...LIGHT RAIN MAY OCCUR WITHOUT THE MIXED
PRECIPITATION.

FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE WITH THE MIXED PRECIPITATION TYPES WORDING
FOR SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM ENOUGH FOR MOSTLY LIGHT
RAIN BY 15Z TO 16Z SUNDAY...THOUGH LIGHT SLEET REMAINS POSSIBLE
UNTIL MIDDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID 40S DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

THE 250 MB UPPER TROUGH EXITS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
A NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW MONDAY. FAIRLY NEUTRAL UPPER DIVERGENCE.
850/700 MB WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURS SUNDAY NIGHT AS A TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES MONDAY. DOWNWARD 700 MB MOTION
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING WITH WEAK UPWARD MOTION MONDAY
AFTERNOON. 850/700 MB RH IS DRY UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE 700
MB LAYER SATURATES.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

A JET MAX SWINGS THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW TUESDAY AS A 250 MB
UPPER RIDGE MOVES INTO THE DAKOTAS. THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
INCREASES MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUES UNTIL THE EARLY AFTERNOON
OVER THE SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY. 850/700 MB WARM AIR ADVECTION
IS QUITE STRONG MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE COOLING TUESDAY. WEAK 700 MB
UPWARD MOTION OCCURS EARLY MONDAY EVENING BEFORE INCREASING TO
FAIRLY STRONG VALUES MAINLY FROM NORTH OF MILWAUKEE AND ACROSS
EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. 700 MB RH IS NEARLY SATURATED MONDAY
EVENING BEFORE DRYING FROM THE WEST. MONDAY EVENING THE 700 MB
LAYER SATURATES. 850 MB LAYERS DO NOT SATURATE BUT DO INCREASE
FROM THE NORTH TUESDAY BRINGING A POTENTIAL BAND OF SHALLOW
STRATOCUMULUS. HOWEVER WITH MIXING THIS MAY STAY SCATTERED.

THE GFS IS DRY MONDAY NIGHT BUT THE ECMWF BRINGS PRECIPITATION TO
ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHWEST AREAS...WITH THE NAM KEEPING IT OVER
NORTHEAST AREAS OF THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY TOWARD
SHEBOYGAN. GIVEN THE SURFACE AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES...IT WOULD
BE RAIN IF IT HAPPENS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT THEN THROUGH THE
REGION TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS WISCONSIN MONDAY
MORNING WITH THE UPPER FLOW BECOMING WEST/SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. AS THE HIGH RECEDES EAST TUESDAY EVENING...WARM AIR
ADVECTION OCCURS WEDNESDAY WITH SOUTH WINDS. THE MODELS KEEP THE
PRECIPITATION OFF TO THE WEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

A SHORTWAVE EXITS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY EVENING...AND
MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE SUPERIOR AREA THURSDAY MORNING ON THE GFS.
THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE WEAKER AND SLOWER. AS A RESULT THE ECMWF IS
SLOWER WITH THE COLD FRONT AND PRECIPITATION AS A STRONG LOW MOVES
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THE GFS HAS ALL THE PRECIPITATION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE ECMWF LINGERING IT INTO WEDNESDAY.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW.

THE MODELS DIVERGE AS WE GET TO FRIDAY. WHILE THE ECMWF WAS WEAKER
WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE THURSDAY...IT IS STRONGER WITH
A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS WISCONSIN AND THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY FRIDAY. AS A RESULT THE ECMWF BRINGS A STRONG DEEPENING LOW
ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS TOWARDS LOWER MICHIGAN...WHILE THE GFS
TRACKS A SOMEWHAT WEAKER LOW ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER AREA. THE GFS
ONLY BRINGS SOME PRECIPITATION...LIKELY SNOW TO THE ILLINOIS
BORDER AREA. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW
CHANGING TO SNOW FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING...WITH HEAVY
PRECIPITATION JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT TAF SITES TONIGHT. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
LINGER AT THE EASTERN SITES INTO EARLY EVENING...BEFORE BECOMING
SOUTH. SOUTH WINDS WILL REMAIN AT MADISON. MIDDLE TO HIGH CLOUDS
WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD INTO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT.

SOUTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN MAGNITUDE LATER
TONIGHT...WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY MORNING...BECOMING
WESTERLY LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 45 TO 50 KNOTS
AT 2000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL BETWEEN 09Z AND 14Z SUNDAY WILL
BRING LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS.

COLD FRONT AND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST THROUGH THE REGION
SUNDAY WILL BRING A ROUND OF MIXED PRECIPITATION TO TAF SITES IN THE
MORNING. A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN AND LIGHT SLEET SHOULD MOVE EAST INTO
MADISON BY 14Z SUNDAY...AND THE EASTERN SITES BY 15Z SUNDAY.

LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE AT TIMES...ALONG WITH LIGHT SNOW AT
THE ONSET. CONFIDENCE HERE IS MEDIUM AND THINGS COULD CHANGE IN
LATER FORECASTS. ANY ACCUMULATIONS OF LIGHT SNOW/SLEET WILL BE JUST
A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH AT BEST...WITH A LIGHT GLAZING POSSIBLE AS
WELL. KEEP UP WITH LATER FORECASTS.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM ENOUGH FOR A CHANGEOVER TO ALL LIGHT RAIN
BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z SUNDAY...LINGERING INTO THE AFTERNOON. CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER MVFR TO IFR CATEGORIES
SUNDAY...BUT ABOVE ALTERNATE MINIMUMS.

MARINE...

A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AND LINGER INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EAST TOWARD AND THROUGH THE
REGION. INCREASING SOUTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY LATER TONIGHT...THEN
VEER SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY...THEN WEST LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

FREQUENT GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE NEARSHORE
WATERS. WAVES SHOULD BUILD TO 3 TO 6 FEET. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS
IN EFFECT FOR THIS PERIOD.

FREQUENT GUSTS TO 35 KNOT GALES ARE THEN ANTICIPATED FOR MOST OF
SUNDAY...WHERE A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT. WAVES SHOULD BUILD
TO 5 TO 10 FEET. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED LATER SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...AS WINDS AND WAVES SLOWLY SUBSIDE.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ645-
     646.

     GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 4 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ643-
     644.

&&

$$
UPDATE...MBK





000
FXUS63 KMKX 290246
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
946 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AND BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL
SLOW DOWN EARLY EVENING TEMPERATURE FALL. AS IS...STILL NEEDED TO
LOWER THE OVERNIGHT MINIMUM TEMPS IN A FEW SPOTS DUE TO EARLY
EVENING FALL. AIR MASS REMAINS VERY DRY...BUT RAPIDLY INCREASING
LOW LEVEL JET LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MRNG WILL PULL SURGE OF
DEEPER MOISTURE QUICKLY INTO THE AREA. PWAT VALUES INCREASE TO
AROUND 0.75 INCH SUN MRNG. STRONG FORCING FROM VIGOROUS SHORT
WAVE AND STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN A 2 TO 4 HOUR
PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIPITATION ACROSS SRN WI...SPREADING INTO THE
WEST 12-13Z...REACHING THE EAST 15-16Z.

EXPECT WRN CWA TO BE CLOSER TO SURGE OF WARMER LOW LEVEL AIR.
HENCE LIKELY SLEET AND RAIN CHANGING TO MOSTLY RAIN. HOWEVER
TIMING CRITICAL AND MAY BE A 1 TO 2 HOUR PERIOD WHEN SFC TEMPS
AROUND FREEZING. THEREFORE STILL A POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN. FARTHER EAST...SFC TEMPS WL HAVE TIME TO WARM...HOWEVER MORE
DRY AIR IN PLACE AND EVAPORATIVE COOLING MAY RESULT IN MORE OF A
RAIN...SLEET MIXTURE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THE LATE MORNING SHOW
THE COLUMN COOLING AROUND 17-18Z POSSIBLY RESULTING IN SOME SNOW
MIXED IN...HOWEVER BEGIN TO LOSE ICE CRYSTALS FALLING INTO CLOUD
LAYER AT THIS TIME. EARLIER THIS EVENING ISSUED SPS AND TOP NEWS
STORY TO WEBSITE TO HIGHLIGHT MIX THREAT.

LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL PREVENT STRONGEST WINDS FROM REACHING SFC
ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER STILL EXPECT WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH...WITH A FEW SPOTS REACHING
30 MPH.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...EXPECT A PERIOD OF MIXED SLEET AND RAIN TO
SWEEP ACROSS TAF SITES SUN MRNG. MAY BE A PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN AT KMSN 14-15Z. RAIN AND SLEET MAY BE MIXED WITH SNOW IN ERN
TAF SITES. MIXED PRECIP WL END IN THE LATE MRNG AND EARLY AFTN
WITH LINGERING SCT -SHRA IN THE AFTN. EXPC VFR CONDITIONS TO
RETURN IN THE AFTN OR EVE. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS MAY REACH 35KTS
ON SUN. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT INTO SUN MRNG.

&&

.MARINE...RAPIDLY TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT WILL CAUSE SOUTH WINDS TO
BEGIN GUSTING IN EXCESS OF 22KTS LATER TONIGHT. THE STRONGEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED FROM MID-MORNING SUNDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON WHEN
GALE FORCE GUSTS OF 35 TO 40KTS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO VIGOROUS
WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING THRU WESTERN GTLAKES. HENCE STATUS QUO ON
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STARTING UP LATER TONIGHT AND GALE WARNING ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

SHORT TERM MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
FURTHER EAST SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION. PRESSURE GRADIENT GRADUALLY
TIGHTENS LATER TONIGHT...AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT/500 MB
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. SOUTH WINDS INCREASE LATER TONIGHT AS A
RESULT...WITH SOME GUSTINESS TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY MORNING.

MIDDLE TO HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE AREA
LATER TONIGHT AS WELL. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD OCCUR LATER THIS
EVENING...THEN HOLD STEADY OR RISE SLIGHTLY WITH STRONG WARM AIR
ADVECTION PUSHING INTO THE AREA.

SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE
TIMING OF PRECIPITATION WITH THE STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION...AS WELL
AS THE PASSING 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT. FIRST
BATCH OF MIXED PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THE MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A SECOND ROUND OF RAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH A SECONDARY 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

THE PRECIPITATION TYPES WITH THE FIRST BATCH OF PRECIPITATION WILL
BE TRICKY...CONFIDENCE HERE IS MEDIUM. AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM
NAM/GFS SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND LIGHT
SLEET...DEPENDING ON IF ICE CRYSTALS ARE INTRODUCED INTO THE AIR
COLUMN AND THE MAGNITUDE OF THE WARM LAYER IN THE LOW LEVELS. CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME LIGHT SNOW AT THE ONSET AS WELL. IF TEMPERATURES WARM
UP QUICKER THAN EXPECTED...LIGHT RAIN MAY OCCUR WITHOUT THE MIXED
PRECIPITATION.

FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE WITH THE MIXED PRECIPITATION TYPES WORDING
FOR SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM ENOUGH FOR MOSTLY LIGHT
RAIN BY 15Z TO 16Z SUNDAY...THOUGH LIGHT SLEET REMAINS POSSIBLE
UNTIL MIDDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID 40S DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

THE 250 MB UPPER TROUGH EXITS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
A NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW MONDAY. FAIRLY NEUTRAL UPPER DIVERGENCE.
850/700 MB WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURS SUNDAY NIGHT AS A TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES MONDAY. DOWNWARD 700 MB MOTION
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING WITH WEAK UPWARD MOTION MONDAY
AFTERNOON. 850/700 MB RH IS DRY UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE 700
MB LAYER SATURATES.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

A JET MAX SWINGS THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW TUESDAY AS A 250 MB
UPPER RIDGE MOVES INTO THE DAKOTAS. THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
INCREASES MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUES UNTIL THE EARLY AFTERNOON
OVER THE SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY. 850/700 MB WARM AIR ADVECTION
IS QUITE STRONG MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE COOLING TUESDAY. WEAK 700 MB
UPWARD MOTION OCCURS EARLY MONDAY EVENING BEFORE INCREASING TO
FAIRLY STRONG VALUES MAINLY FROM NORTH OF MILWAUKEE AND ACROSS
EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. 700 MB RH IS NEARLY SATURATED MONDAY
EVENING BEFORE DRYING FROM THE WEST. MONDAY EVENING THE 700 MB
LAYER SATURATES. 850 MB LAYERS DO NOT SATURATE BUT DO INCREASE
FROM THE NORTH TUESDAY BRINGING A POTENTIAL BAND OF SHALLOW
STRATOCUMULUS. HOWEVER WITH MIXING THIS MAY STAY SCATTERED.

THE GFS IS DRY MONDAY NIGHT BUT THE ECMWF BRINGS PRECIPITATION TO
ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHWEST AREAS...WITH THE NAM KEEPING IT OVER
NORTHEAST AREAS OF THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY TOWARD
SHEBOYGAN. GIVEN THE SURFACE AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES...IT WOULD
BE RAIN IF IT HAPPENS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT THEN THROUGH THE
REGION TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS WISCONSIN MONDAY
MORNING WITH THE UPPER FLOW BECOMING WEST/SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. AS THE HIGH RECEDES EAST TUESDAY EVENING...WARM AIR
ADVECTION OCCURS WEDNESDAY WITH SOUTH WINDS. THE MODELS KEEP THE
PRECIPITATION OFF TO THE WEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

A SHORTWAVE EXITS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY EVENING...AND
MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE SUPERIOR AREA THURSDAY MORNING ON THE GFS.
THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE WEAKER AND SLOWER. AS A RESULT THE ECMWF IS
SLOWER WITH THE COLD FRONT AND PRECIPITATION AS A STRONG LOW MOVES
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THE GFS HAS ALL THE PRECIPITATION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE ECMWF LINGERING IT INTO WEDNESDAY.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW.

THE MODELS DIVERGE AS WE GET TO FRIDAY. WHILE THE ECMWF WAS WEAKER
WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE THURSDAY...IT IS STRONGER WITH
A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS WISCONSIN AND THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY FRIDAY. AS A RESULT THE ECMWF BRINGS A STRONG DEEPENING LOW
ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS TOWARDS LOWER MICHIGAN...WHILE THE GFS
TRACKS A SOMEWHAT WEAKER LOW ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER AREA. THE GFS
ONLY BRINGS SOME PRECIPITATION...LIKELY SNOW TO THE ILLINOIS
BORDER AREA. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW
CHANGING TO SNOW FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING...WITH HEAVY
PRECIPITATION JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT TAF SITES TONIGHT. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
LINGER AT THE EASTERN SITES INTO EARLY EVENING...BEFORE BECOMING
SOUTH. SOUTH WINDS WILL REMAIN AT MADISON. MIDDLE TO HIGH CLOUDS
WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD INTO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT.

SOUTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN MAGNITUDE LATER
TONIGHT...WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY MORNING...BECOMING
WESTERLY LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 45 TO 50 KNOTS
AT 2000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL BETWEEN 09Z AND 14Z SUNDAY WILL
BRING LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS.

COLD FRONT AND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST THROUGH THE REGION
SUNDAY WILL BRING A ROUND OF MIXED PRECIPITATION TO TAF SITES IN THE
MORNING. A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN AND LIGHT SLEET SHOULD MOVE EAST INTO
MADISON BY 14Z SUNDAY...AND THE EASTERN SITES BY 15Z SUNDAY.

LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE AT TIMES...ALONG WITH LIGHT SNOW AT
THE ONSET. CONFIDENCE HERE IS MEDIUM AND THINGS COULD CHANGE IN
LATER FORECASTS. ANY ACCUMULATIONS OF LIGHT SNOW/SLEET WILL BE JUST
A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH AT BEST...WITH A LIGHT GLAZING POSSIBLE AS
WELL. KEEP UP WITH LATER FORECASTS.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM ENOUGH FOR A CHANGEOVER TO ALL LIGHT RAIN
BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z SUNDAY...LINGERING INTO THE AFTERNOON. CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER MVFR TO IFR CATEGORIES
SUNDAY...BUT ABOVE ALTERNATE MINIMUMS.

MARINE...

A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AND LINGER INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EAST TOWARD AND THROUGH THE
REGION. INCREASING SOUTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY LATER TONIGHT...THEN
VEER SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY...THEN WEST LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

FREQUENT GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE NEARSHORE
WATERS. WAVES SHOULD BUILD TO 3 TO 6 FEET. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS
IN EFFECT FOR THIS PERIOD.

FREQUENT GUSTS TO 35 KNOT GALES ARE THEN ANTICIPATED FOR MOST OF
SUNDAY...WHERE A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT. WAVES SHOULD BUILD
TO 5 TO 10 FEET. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED LATER SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...AS WINDS AND WAVES SLOWLY SUBSIDE.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ645-
     646.

     GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 4 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ643-
     644.

&&

$$
UPDATE...MBK




000
FXUS63 KMKX 282011
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
311 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...

.TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

SHORT TERM MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
FURTHER EAST SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION. PRESSURE GRADIENT GRADUALLY
TIGHTENS LATER TONIGHT...AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT/500 MB
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. SOUTH WINDS INCREASE LATER TONIGHT AS A
RESULT...WITH SOME GUSTINESS TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY MORNING.

MIDDLE TO HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE AREA
LATER TONIGHT AS WELL. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD OCCUR LATER THIS
EVENING...THEN HOLD STEADY OR RISE SLIGHTLY WITH STRONG WARM AIR
ADVECTION PUSHING INTO THE AREA.

.SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE
TIMING OF PRECIPITATION WITH THE STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION...AS WELL
AS THE PASSING 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT. FIRST
BATCH OF MIXED PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THE MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A SECOND ROUND OF RAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH A SECONDARY 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

THE PRECIPITATION TYPES WITH THE FIRST BATCH OF PRECIPITATION WILL
BE TRICKY...CONFIDENCE HERE IS MEDIUM. AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM
NAM/GFS SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND LIGHT
SLEET...DEPENDING ON IF ICE CRYSTALS ARE INTRODUCED INTO THE AIR
COLUMN AND THE MAGNITUDE OF THE WARM LAYER IN THE LOW LEVELS. CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME LIGHT SNOW AT THE ONSET AS WELL. IF TEMPERATURES WARM
UP QUICKER THAN EXPECTED...LIGHT RAIN MAY OCCUR WITHOUT THE MIXED
PRECIPITATION.

FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE WITH THE MIXED PRECIPITATION TYPES WORDING
FOR SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM ENOUGH FOR MOSTLY LIGHT
RAIN BY 15Z TO 16Z SUNDAY...THOUGH LIGHT SLEET REMAINS POSSIBLE
UNTIL MIDDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID 40S DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT.


.SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

THE 250 MB UPPER TROUGH EXITS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
A NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW MONDAY. FAIRLY NEUTRAL UPPER DIVERGENCE.
850/700 MB WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURS SUNDAY NIGHT AS A TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES MONDAY. DOWNWARD 700 MB MOTION
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING WITH WEAK UPWARD MOTION MONDAY
AFTERNOON. 850/700 MB RH IS DRY UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE 700
MB LAYER SATURATES.

.MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

A JET MAX SWINGS THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW TUESDAY AS A 250 MB
UPPER RIDGE MOVES INTO THE DAKOTAS. THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
INCREASES MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUES UNTIL THE EARLY AFTERNOON
OVER THE SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY. 850/700 MB WARM AIR ADVECTION
IS QUITE STRONG MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE COOLING TUESDAY. WEAK 700 MB
UPWARD MOTION OCCURS EARLY MONDAY EVENING BEFORE INCREASING TO
FAIRLY STRONG VALUES MAINLY FROM NORTH OF MILWAUKEE AND ACROSS
EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. 700 MB RH IS NEARLY SATURATED MONDAY
EVENING BEFORE DRYING FROM THE WEST. MONDAY EVENING THE 700 MB
LAYER SATURATES. 850 MB LAYERS DO NOT SATURATE BUT DO INCREASE
FROM THE NORTH TUESDAY BRINGING A POTENTIAL BAND OF SHALLOW
STRATOCUMULUS. HOWEVER WITH MIXING THIS MAY STAY SCATTERED.

THE GFS IS DRY MONDAY NIGHT BUT THE ECMWF BRINGS PRECIPITATION TO
ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHWEST AREAS...WITH THE NAM KEEPING IT OVER
NORTHEAST AREAS OF THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY TOWARD
SHEBOYGAN. GIVEN THE SURFACE AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES...IT WOULD
BE RAIN IF IT HAPPENS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT THEN THROUGH THE
REGION TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...

.TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS WISCONSIN MONDAY
MORNING WITH THE UPPER FLOW BECOMING WEST/SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. AS THE HIGH RECEDES EAST TUESDAY EVENING...WARM AIR
ADVECTION OCCURS WEDNESDAY WITH SOUTH WINDS. THE MODELS KEEP THE
PRECIPITATION OFF TO THE WEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

A SHORTWAVE EXITS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY EVENING...AND
MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE SUPERIOR AREA THURSDAY MORNING ON THE GFS.
THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE WEAKER AND SLOWER. AS A RESULT THE ECMWF IS
SLOWER WITH THE COLD FRONT AND PRECIPITATION AS A STRONG LOW MOVES
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THE GFS HAS ALL THE PRECIPITATION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE ECMWF LINGERING IT INTO WEDNESDAY.


.FRIDAY AND SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW.

THE MODELS DIVERGE AS WE GET TO FRIDAY. WHILE THE ECMWF WAS WEAKER
WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE THURSDAY...IT IS STRONGER WITH
A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS WISCONSIN AND THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY FRIDAY. AS A RESULT THE ECMWF BRINGS A STRONG DEEPENING LOW
ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS TOWARDS LOWER MICHIGAN...WHILE THE GFS
TRACKS A SOMEWHAT WEAKER LOW ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER AREA. THE GFS
ONLY BRINGS SOME PRECIPITATION...LIKELY SNOW TO THE ILLINOIS
BORDER AREA. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW
CHANGING TO SNOW FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING...WITH HEAVY
PRECIPITATION JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT TAF SITES TONIGHT. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
LINGER AT THE EASTERN SITES INTO EARLY EVENING...BEFORE BECOMING
SOUTH. SOUTH WINDS WILL REMAIN AT MADISON. MIDDLE TO HIGH CLOUDS
WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD INTO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT.

SOUTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN MAGNITUDE LATER
TONIGHT...WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY MORNING...BECOMING
WESTERLY LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 45 TO 50 KNOTS
AT 2000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL BETWEEN 09Z AND 14Z SUNDAY WILL
BRING LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS.

COLD FRONT AND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST THROUGH THE REGION
SUNDAY WILL BRING A ROUND OF MIXED PRECIPITATION TO TAF SITES IN THE
MORNING. A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN AND LIGHT SLEET SHOULD MOVE EAST INTO
MADISON BY 14Z SUNDAY...AND THE EASTERN SITES BY 15Z SUNDAY.

LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE AT TIMES...ALONG WITH LIGHT SNOW AT
THE ONSET. CONFIDENCE HERE IS MEDIUM AND THINGS COULD CHANGE IN
LATER FORECASTS. ANY ACCUMULATIONS OF LIGHT SNOW/SLEET WILL BE JUST
A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH AT BEST...WITH A LIGHT GLAZING POSSIBLE AS
WELL. KEEP UP WITH LATER FORECASTS.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM ENOUGH FOR A CHANGEOVER TO ALL LIGHT RAIN
BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z SUNDAY...LINGERING INTO THE AFTERNOON. CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER MVFR TO IFR CATEGORIES
SUNDAY...BUT ABOVE ALTERNATE MINIMUMS.

&&

.MARINE...

A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AND LINGER INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EAST TOWARD AND THROUGH THE
REGION. INCREASING SOUTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY LATER TONIGHT...THEN
VEER SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY...THEN WEST LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

FREQUENT GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE NEARSHORE
WATERS. WAVES SHOULD BUILD TO 3 TO 6 FEET. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS
IN EFFECT FOR THIS PERIOD.

FREQUENT GUSTS TO 35 KNOT GALES ARE THEN ANTICIPATED FOR MOST OF
SUNDAY...WHERE A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT. WAVES SHOULD BUILD
TO 5 TO 10 FEET. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED LATER SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...AS WINDS AND WAVES SLOWLY SUBSIDE.


&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ645-
     646.

     GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 4 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ643-
     644.

&&

$$

TONIGHT/SUNDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...WOOD
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...HENTZ





000
FXUS63 KMKX 282011
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
311 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...

.TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

SHORT TERM MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
FURTHER EAST SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION. PRESSURE GRADIENT GRADUALLY
TIGHTENS LATER TONIGHT...AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT/500 MB
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. SOUTH WINDS INCREASE LATER TONIGHT AS A
RESULT...WITH SOME GUSTINESS TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY MORNING.

MIDDLE TO HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE AREA
LATER TONIGHT AS WELL. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD OCCUR LATER THIS
EVENING...THEN HOLD STEADY OR RISE SLIGHTLY WITH STRONG WARM AIR
ADVECTION PUSHING INTO THE AREA.

.SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE
TIMING OF PRECIPITATION WITH THE STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION...AS WELL
AS THE PASSING 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT. FIRST
BATCH OF MIXED PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THE MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A SECOND ROUND OF RAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH A SECONDARY 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

THE PRECIPITATION TYPES WITH THE FIRST BATCH OF PRECIPITATION WILL
BE TRICKY...CONFIDENCE HERE IS MEDIUM. AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM
NAM/GFS SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND LIGHT
SLEET...DEPENDING ON IF ICE CRYSTALS ARE INTRODUCED INTO THE AIR
COLUMN AND THE MAGNITUDE OF THE WARM LAYER IN THE LOW LEVELS. CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME LIGHT SNOW AT THE ONSET AS WELL. IF TEMPERATURES WARM
UP QUICKER THAN EXPECTED...LIGHT RAIN MAY OCCUR WITHOUT THE MIXED
PRECIPITATION.

FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE WITH THE MIXED PRECIPITATION TYPES WORDING
FOR SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM ENOUGH FOR MOSTLY LIGHT
RAIN BY 15Z TO 16Z SUNDAY...THOUGH LIGHT SLEET REMAINS POSSIBLE
UNTIL MIDDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID 40S DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT.


.SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

THE 250 MB UPPER TROUGH EXITS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
A NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW MONDAY. FAIRLY NEUTRAL UPPER DIVERGENCE.
850/700 MB WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURS SUNDAY NIGHT AS A TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES MONDAY. DOWNWARD 700 MB MOTION
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING WITH WEAK UPWARD MOTION MONDAY
AFTERNOON. 850/700 MB RH IS DRY UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE 700
MB LAYER SATURATES.

.MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

A JET MAX SWINGS THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW TUESDAY AS A 250 MB
UPPER RIDGE MOVES INTO THE DAKOTAS. THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
INCREASES MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUES UNTIL THE EARLY AFTERNOON
OVER THE SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY. 850/700 MB WARM AIR ADVECTION
IS QUITE STRONG MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE COOLING TUESDAY. WEAK 700 MB
UPWARD MOTION OCCURS EARLY MONDAY EVENING BEFORE INCREASING TO
FAIRLY STRONG VALUES MAINLY FROM NORTH OF MILWAUKEE AND ACROSS
EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. 700 MB RH IS NEARLY SATURATED MONDAY
EVENING BEFORE DRYING FROM THE WEST. MONDAY EVENING THE 700 MB
LAYER SATURATES. 850 MB LAYERS DO NOT SATURATE BUT DO INCREASE
FROM THE NORTH TUESDAY BRINGING A POTENTIAL BAND OF SHALLOW
STRATOCUMULUS. HOWEVER WITH MIXING THIS MAY STAY SCATTERED.

THE GFS IS DRY MONDAY NIGHT BUT THE ECMWF BRINGS PRECIPITATION TO
ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHWEST AREAS...WITH THE NAM KEEPING IT OVER
NORTHEAST AREAS OF THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY TOWARD
SHEBOYGAN. GIVEN THE SURFACE AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES...IT WOULD
BE RAIN IF IT HAPPENS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT THEN THROUGH THE
REGION TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...

.TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS WISCONSIN MONDAY
MORNING WITH THE UPPER FLOW BECOMING WEST/SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. AS THE HIGH RECEDES EAST TUESDAY EVENING...WARM AIR
ADVECTION OCCURS WEDNESDAY WITH SOUTH WINDS. THE MODELS KEEP THE
PRECIPITATION OFF TO THE WEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

A SHORTWAVE EXITS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY EVENING...AND
MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE SUPERIOR AREA THURSDAY MORNING ON THE GFS.
THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE WEAKER AND SLOWER. AS A RESULT THE ECMWF IS
SLOWER WITH THE COLD FRONT AND PRECIPITATION AS A STRONG LOW MOVES
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THE GFS HAS ALL THE PRECIPITATION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE ECMWF LINGERING IT INTO WEDNESDAY.


.FRIDAY AND SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW.

THE MODELS DIVERGE AS WE GET TO FRIDAY. WHILE THE ECMWF WAS WEAKER
WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE THURSDAY...IT IS STRONGER WITH
A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS WISCONSIN AND THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY FRIDAY. AS A RESULT THE ECMWF BRINGS A STRONG DEEPENING LOW
ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS TOWARDS LOWER MICHIGAN...WHILE THE GFS
TRACKS A SOMEWHAT WEAKER LOW ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER AREA. THE GFS
ONLY BRINGS SOME PRECIPITATION...LIKELY SNOW TO THE ILLINOIS
BORDER AREA. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW
CHANGING TO SNOW FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING...WITH HEAVY
PRECIPITATION JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT TAF SITES TONIGHT. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
LINGER AT THE EASTERN SITES INTO EARLY EVENING...BEFORE BECOMING
SOUTH. SOUTH WINDS WILL REMAIN AT MADISON. MIDDLE TO HIGH CLOUDS
WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD INTO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT.

SOUTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN MAGNITUDE LATER
TONIGHT...WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY MORNING...BECOMING
WESTERLY LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 45 TO 50 KNOTS
AT 2000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL BETWEEN 09Z AND 14Z SUNDAY WILL
BRING LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS.

COLD FRONT AND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST THROUGH THE REGION
SUNDAY WILL BRING A ROUND OF MIXED PRECIPITATION TO TAF SITES IN THE
MORNING. A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN AND LIGHT SLEET SHOULD MOVE EAST INTO
MADISON BY 14Z SUNDAY...AND THE EASTERN SITES BY 15Z SUNDAY.

LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE AT TIMES...ALONG WITH LIGHT SNOW AT
THE ONSET. CONFIDENCE HERE IS MEDIUM AND THINGS COULD CHANGE IN
LATER FORECASTS. ANY ACCUMULATIONS OF LIGHT SNOW/SLEET WILL BE JUST
A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH AT BEST...WITH A LIGHT GLAZING POSSIBLE AS
WELL. KEEP UP WITH LATER FORECASTS.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM ENOUGH FOR A CHANGEOVER TO ALL LIGHT RAIN
BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z SUNDAY...LINGERING INTO THE AFTERNOON. CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER MVFR TO IFR CATEGORIES
SUNDAY...BUT ABOVE ALTERNATE MINIMUMS.

&&

.MARINE...

A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AND LINGER INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EAST TOWARD AND THROUGH THE
REGION. INCREASING SOUTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY LATER TONIGHT...THEN
VEER SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY...THEN WEST LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

FREQUENT GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE NEARSHORE
WATERS. WAVES SHOULD BUILD TO 3 TO 6 FEET. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS
IN EFFECT FOR THIS PERIOD.

FREQUENT GUSTS TO 35 KNOT GALES ARE THEN ANTICIPATED FOR MOST OF
SUNDAY...WHERE A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT. WAVES SHOULD BUILD
TO 5 TO 10 FEET. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED LATER SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...AS WINDS AND WAVES SLOWLY SUBSIDE.


&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ645-
     646.

     GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 4 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ643-
     644.

&&

$$

TONIGHT/SUNDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...WOOD
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...HENTZ




000
FXUS63 KMKX 281643 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1143 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BRING QUIET
WEATHER TODAY. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON NEAR
LAKE MICHIGAN...WITH SOUTH WINDS DEVELOPING INLAND. MAY SEE DEW
POINTS MIX OUT SOMEWHAT THIS AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HEATING. THIS
SHOULD LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES INTO THE 25 TO 35 PERCENT
RANGE.

HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 30S ACROSS MOST INLAND AREAS...WITH
A FEW LOWER 40S NEAR THE DELLS. HIGHS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE MID 30S
NEAR THE LAKE.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT TAF SITES DURING THIS
PERIOD. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AT THE EASTERN SITES BY EARLY
TO MID AFTERNOON...WITH SOUTH WINDS AT MADISON. MIDDLE TO HIGH
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT.

SOUTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN MAGNITUDE TONIGHT...WITH
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY MORNING...BECOMING WESTERLY LATER
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 45 KNOTS AT 2000 FEET
ABOVE GROUND LEVEL BETWEEN 09Z AND 13Z SUNDAY WILL BRING LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS...BEFORE FREQUENT GUSTY WINDS MIX DOWN TO
THE SURFACE.

COLD FRONT MOVING EAST THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY WILL BRING A
ROUND OF MIXED PRECIPITATION TO TAF SITES. A MIX OF LIGHT
SNOW...LIGHT SLEET AND LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL MOVE EAST INTO
MADISON BY 13Z SUNDAY...AND THE EASTERN SITES BY 15Z SUNDAY. ANY
ACCUMULATIONS OF LIGHT SNOW/SLEET WILL BE A FEW TENTHS OF AN
INCH...WITH A LIGHT GLAZING POSSIBLE AS WELL.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM ENOUGH FOR A CHANGEOVER TO ALL LIGHT
RAIN BY 18Z SUNDAY...LINGERING INTO THE AFTERNOON. CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER MVFR TO IFR CATEGORIES
SUNDAY...BUT ABOVE ALTERNATE MINIMUMS.

&&

.MARINE...

A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AND LINGER
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EAST TOWARD AND THROUGH
THE REGION. INCREASING SOUTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY LATER
TONIGHT...THEN VEER SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY...THEN WEST LATE SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

FREQUENT GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE NEARSHORE
WATERS. WAVES SHOULD BUILD TO 3 TO 6 FEET. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS PERIOD.

FREQUENT GUSTS TO 35 KNOT GALES ARE THEN ANTICIPATED FOR MOST OF
SUNDAY...WHERE A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT. WAVES SHOULD
BUILD TO 4 TO 8 FEET. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED LATER
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...AS WINDS AND WAVES SLOWLY SUBSIDE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH

IT/S A CHILLY START OUT THERE THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BROUGHT
CLEAR SKIES...CALM WINDS AND RADIATING TEMPS.  TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON WILL RECOVER INTO THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40 RANGE...WARMEST
NORTHWEST OF MADISON.  LOOK FOR FULL SUNSHINE AS WELL.

THE HIGH WILL SLIDE EAST BY TONIGHT WITH THE REGION GETTING INTO A
BETTER PRESSURE GRADIENT OVERNIGHT AS A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES QUICKLY FROM THE NORTHWEST. LOW TEMPS WILL LIKELY OCCUR
THIS EVENING WITH WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE TROF OVERPOWERING THE
NORMAL DIURNAL CURVE AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE COLUMN REMAINS DRY THROUGH
12Z...SO NO PRECIP EXPECTED BEFORE THEN...JUST STEADILY INCREASING
CLOUDS.

SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL SWING THROUGH
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND CROSS WISCONSIN ON SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING A BRIEF ROUND OF PRECIP TO SOUTHERN WI. THE TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL ALSO LEAD TO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS SUNDAY MORNING
THAT SWITCH TO WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH. TOTAL QPF SHOULD BE A QUARTER INCH OR LESS. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE 40S.

THERE IS QUITE A PUSH OF WARM AIR WITHIN THE AXIS OF A 60-KNOT LOW
LEVEL JET. THIS WILL SHIFT FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH SOUTHERN WI
SUNDAY MORNING... BASICALLY AT THE ONSET OF THE PRECIP. MORNING
TEMPS WILL BEGIN BELOW FREEZING... SO FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET IS
EXPECTED WEST OF MADISON. ELSEWHERE... THERE IS LESS CERTAINTY ABOUT
PRECIP TYPE SINCE IT WILL DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY THE PRECIP SPREADS
EAST TO THE LAKE. EXPECT A WINTRY MIX IN THE MORNING THAT
TRANSITIONS TO RAIN FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF QUICKLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING BEHIND THE
SHORTWAVE. DRIER AIR SHOULD SCOUR OUT CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS
DROPPING DOWN TO AROUND 30.

LONG TERM...

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

THE ECMWF IS HOLDING ON TO THE IDEA OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED WEAK LOW PRESSURE BRINGING PRECIP INTO SOUTHERN WI MONDAY
NIGHT. OTHER MODELS KEEP THIS PRECIP WELL TO OUR NORTH. IT WOULD BE
RAIN IF IT HAPPENS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 50S... AND LOWS IN THE 30S.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL BUMP MAX TEMPS
INTO THE 60S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL BE OCCLUDING...
SO PRECIP SHOULD BE DELAYED UNTIL WED NIGHT AND LINGER INTO
THURSDAY. THE GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY...
SO A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER COULD BE POSSIBLE.

THE MODELS DIVERGE AS WE GET TO FRIDAY. THE ECMWF BRINGS A STRONG
SYSTEM WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW OVER SOUTHERN WI WITH A GOOD
AMOUNT OF QPF FOR NEXT FRI AND SAT. THE GFS DOES NOT SHOW THIS
SYSTEM AT THIS TIME.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS AND
CLEAR SKIES THROUGH TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST OF
THE REGION. A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT. LOOK FOR INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...ALONG WITH
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS. WE COULD HAVE SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
ISSUES BEGINNING ABOUT 09Z SUN AND CONTINUING INTO SUN MORNING.

MARINE...

INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROF OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS AFTER 06Z
SUN. A GALE WARNING THEN GOES INTO EFFECT AT 15Z SUN WITH WINDS
SUBSIDING BY MID AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY.

FIRE WEATHER...

DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY MIX OUT THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW LOCATIONS
POSSIBLY DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES HOLDING IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ645-
     646.

     GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 4 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ643-
     644.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WOOD
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DAVIS
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MRC





000
FXUS63 KMKX 281643 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1143 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BRING QUIET
WEATHER TODAY. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON NEAR
LAKE MICHIGAN...WITH SOUTH WINDS DEVELOPING INLAND. MAY SEE DEW
POINTS MIX OUT SOMEWHAT THIS AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HEATING. THIS
SHOULD LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES INTO THE 25 TO 35 PERCENT
RANGE.

HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 30S ACROSS MOST INLAND AREAS...WITH
A FEW LOWER 40S NEAR THE DELLS. HIGHS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE MID 30S
NEAR THE LAKE.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT TAF SITES DURING THIS
PERIOD. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AT THE EASTERN SITES BY EARLY
TO MID AFTERNOON...WITH SOUTH WINDS AT MADISON. MIDDLE TO HIGH
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT.

SOUTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN MAGNITUDE TONIGHT...WITH
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY MORNING...BECOMING WESTERLY LATER
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 45 KNOTS AT 2000 FEET
ABOVE GROUND LEVEL BETWEEN 09Z AND 13Z SUNDAY WILL BRING LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS...BEFORE FREQUENT GUSTY WINDS MIX DOWN TO
THE SURFACE.

COLD FRONT MOVING EAST THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY WILL BRING A
ROUND OF MIXED PRECIPITATION TO TAF SITES. A MIX OF LIGHT
SNOW...LIGHT SLEET AND LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL MOVE EAST INTO
MADISON BY 13Z SUNDAY...AND THE EASTERN SITES BY 15Z SUNDAY. ANY
ACCUMULATIONS OF LIGHT SNOW/SLEET WILL BE A FEW TENTHS OF AN
INCH...WITH A LIGHT GLAZING POSSIBLE AS WELL.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM ENOUGH FOR A CHANGEOVER TO ALL LIGHT
RAIN BY 18Z SUNDAY...LINGERING INTO THE AFTERNOON. CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER MVFR TO IFR CATEGORIES
SUNDAY...BUT ABOVE ALTERNATE MINIMUMS.

&&

.MARINE...

A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AND LINGER
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EAST TOWARD AND THROUGH
THE REGION. INCREASING SOUTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY LATER
TONIGHT...THEN VEER SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY...THEN WEST LATE SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

FREQUENT GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE NEARSHORE
WATERS. WAVES SHOULD BUILD TO 3 TO 6 FEET. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS PERIOD.

FREQUENT GUSTS TO 35 KNOT GALES ARE THEN ANTICIPATED FOR MOST OF
SUNDAY...WHERE A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT. WAVES SHOULD
BUILD TO 4 TO 8 FEET. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED LATER
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...AS WINDS AND WAVES SLOWLY SUBSIDE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH

IT/S A CHILLY START OUT THERE THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BROUGHT
CLEAR SKIES...CALM WINDS AND RADIATING TEMPS.  TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON WILL RECOVER INTO THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40 RANGE...WARMEST
NORTHWEST OF MADISON.  LOOK FOR FULL SUNSHINE AS WELL.

THE HIGH WILL SLIDE EAST BY TONIGHT WITH THE REGION GETTING INTO A
BETTER PRESSURE GRADIENT OVERNIGHT AS A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES QUICKLY FROM THE NORTHWEST. LOW TEMPS WILL LIKELY OCCUR
THIS EVENING WITH WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE TROF OVERPOWERING THE
NORMAL DIURNAL CURVE AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE COLUMN REMAINS DRY THROUGH
12Z...SO NO PRECIP EXPECTED BEFORE THEN...JUST STEADILY INCREASING
CLOUDS.

SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL SWING THROUGH
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND CROSS WISCONSIN ON SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING A BRIEF ROUND OF PRECIP TO SOUTHERN WI. THE TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL ALSO LEAD TO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS SUNDAY MORNING
THAT SWITCH TO WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH. TOTAL QPF SHOULD BE A QUARTER INCH OR LESS. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE 40S.

THERE IS QUITE A PUSH OF WARM AIR WITHIN THE AXIS OF A 60-KNOT LOW
LEVEL JET. THIS WILL SHIFT FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH SOUTHERN WI
SUNDAY MORNING... BASICALLY AT THE ONSET OF THE PRECIP. MORNING
TEMPS WILL BEGIN BELOW FREEZING... SO FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET IS
EXPECTED WEST OF MADISON. ELSEWHERE... THERE IS LESS CERTAINTY ABOUT
PRECIP TYPE SINCE IT WILL DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY THE PRECIP SPREADS
EAST TO THE LAKE. EXPECT A WINTRY MIX IN THE MORNING THAT
TRANSITIONS TO RAIN FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF QUICKLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING BEHIND THE
SHORTWAVE. DRIER AIR SHOULD SCOUR OUT CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS
DROPPING DOWN TO AROUND 30.

LONG TERM...

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

THE ECMWF IS HOLDING ON TO THE IDEA OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED WEAK LOW PRESSURE BRINGING PRECIP INTO SOUTHERN WI MONDAY
NIGHT. OTHER MODELS KEEP THIS PRECIP WELL TO OUR NORTH. IT WOULD BE
RAIN IF IT HAPPENS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 50S... AND LOWS IN THE 30S.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL BUMP MAX TEMPS
INTO THE 60S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL BE OCCLUDING...
SO PRECIP SHOULD BE DELAYED UNTIL WED NIGHT AND LINGER INTO
THURSDAY. THE GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY...
SO A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER COULD BE POSSIBLE.

THE MODELS DIVERGE AS WE GET TO FRIDAY. THE ECMWF BRINGS A STRONG
SYSTEM WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW OVER SOUTHERN WI WITH A GOOD
AMOUNT OF QPF FOR NEXT FRI AND SAT. THE GFS DOES NOT SHOW THIS
SYSTEM AT THIS TIME.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS AND
CLEAR SKIES THROUGH TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST OF
THE REGION. A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT. LOOK FOR INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...ALONG WITH
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS. WE COULD HAVE SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
ISSUES BEGINNING ABOUT 09Z SUN AND CONTINUING INTO SUN MORNING.

MARINE...

INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROF OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS AFTER 06Z
SUN. A GALE WARNING THEN GOES INTO EFFECT AT 15Z SUN WITH WINDS
SUBSIDING BY MID AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY.

FIRE WEATHER...

DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY MIX OUT THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW LOCATIONS
POSSIBLY DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES HOLDING IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ645-
     646.

     GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 4 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ643-
     644.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WOOD
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DAVIS
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MRC




000
FXUS63 KMKX 280844
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
344 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH

IT/S A CHILLY START OUT THERE THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BROUGHT
CLEAR SKIES...CALM WINDS AND RADIATING TEMPS.  TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON WILL RECOVER INTO THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40 RANGE...WARMEST
NORTHWEST OF MADISON.  LOOK FOR FULL SUNSHINE AS WELL.

THE HIGH WILL SLIDE EAST BY TONIGHT WITH THE REGION GETTING INTO A
BETTER PRESSURE GRADIENT OVERNIGHT AS A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES QUICKLY FROM THE NORTHWEST. LOW TEMPS WILL LIKELY OCCUR
THIS EVENING WITH WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE TROF OVERPOWERING THE
NORMAL DIURNAL CURVE AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE COLUMN REMAINS DRY THROUGH
12Z...SO NO PRECIP EXPECTED BEFORE THEN...JUST STEADILY INCREASING
CLOUDS.

SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL SWING THROUGH
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND CROSS WISCONSIN ON SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING A BRIEF ROUND OF PRECIP TO SOUTHERN WI. THE TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL ALSO LEAD TO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS SUNDAY MORNING
THAT SWITCH TO WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH. TOTAL QPF SHOULD BE A QUARTER INCH OR LESS. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE 40S.

THERE IS QUITE A PUSH OF WARM AIR WITHIN THE AXIS OF A 60-KNOT LOW
LEVEL JET. THIS WILL SHIFT FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH SOUTHERN WI
SUNDAY MORNING... BASICALLY AT THE ONSET OF THE PRECIP. MORNING
TEMPS WILL BEGIN BELOW FREEZING... SO FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET IS
EXPECTED WEST OF MADISON. ELSEWHERE... THERE IS LESS CERTAINTY ABOUT
PRECIP TYPE SINCE IT WILL DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY THE PRECIP SPREADS
EAST TO THE LAKE. EXPECT A WINTRY MIX IN THE MORNING THAT
TRANSITIONS TO RAIN FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF QUICKLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING BEHIND THE
SHORTWAVE. DRIER AIR SHOULD SCOUR OUT CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS
DROPPING DOWN TO AROUND 30.

.LONG TERM...

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

THE ECMWF IS HOLDING ON TO THE IDEA OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED WEAK LOW PRESSURE BRINGING PRECIP INTO SOUTHERN WI MONDAY
NIGHT. OTHER MODELS KEEP THIS PRECIP WELL TO OUR NORTH. IT WOULD BE
RAIN IF IT HAPPENS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 50S... AND LOWS IN THE 30S.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL BUMP MAX TEMPS
INTO THE 60S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL BE OCCLUDING...
SO PRECIP SHOULD BE DELAYED UNTIL WED NIGHT AND LINGER INTO
THURSDAY. THE GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY...
SO A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER COULD BE POSSIBLE.

THE MODELS DIVERGE AS WE GET TO FRIDAY. THE ECWMF BRINGS A STRONG
SYSTEM WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW OVER SOUTHERN WI WITH A GOOD
AMOUNT OF QPF FOR NEXT FRI AND SAT. THE GFS DOES NOT SHOW THIS
SYSTEM AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS AND
CLEAR SKIES THROUGH TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST OF
THE REGION. A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT. LOOK FOR INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...ALONG WITH
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS. WE COULD HAVE SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
ISSUES BEGINNING ABOUT 09Z SUN AND CONTINUING INTO SUN MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...

INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROF OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS AFTER 06Z
SUN. A GALE WARNING THEN GOES INTO EFFECT AT 15Z SUN WITH WINDS
SUBSIDING BY MID AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY MIX OUT THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW LOCATIONS
POSSIBLY DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES HOLDING IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ645-
     646.

     GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 4 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ643-
     644.

&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DAVIS
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MRC




000
FXUS63 KMKX 280844
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
344 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH

IT/S A CHILLY START OUT THERE THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BROUGHT
CLEAR SKIES...CALM WINDS AND RADIATING TEMPS.  TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON WILL RECOVER INTO THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40 RANGE...WARMEST
NORTHWEST OF MADISON.  LOOK FOR FULL SUNSHINE AS WELL.

THE HIGH WILL SLIDE EAST BY TONIGHT WITH THE REGION GETTING INTO A
BETTER PRESSURE GRADIENT OVERNIGHT AS A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES QUICKLY FROM THE NORTHWEST. LOW TEMPS WILL LIKELY OCCUR
THIS EVENING WITH WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE TROF OVERPOWERING THE
NORMAL DIURNAL CURVE AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE COLUMN REMAINS DRY THROUGH
12Z...SO NO PRECIP EXPECTED BEFORE THEN...JUST STEADILY INCREASING
CLOUDS.

SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL SWING THROUGH
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND CROSS WISCONSIN ON SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING A BRIEF ROUND OF PRECIP TO SOUTHERN WI. THE TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL ALSO LEAD TO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS SUNDAY MORNING
THAT SWITCH TO WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH. TOTAL QPF SHOULD BE A QUARTER INCH OR LESS. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE 40S.

THERE IS QUITE A PUSH OF WARM AIR WITHIN THE AXIS OF A 60-KNOT LOW
LEVEL JET. THIS WILL SHIFT FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH SOUTHERN WI
SUNDAY MORNING... BASICALLY AT THE ONSET OF THE PRECIP. MORNING
TEMPS WILL BEGIN BELOW FREEZING... SO FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET IS
EXPECTED WEST OF MADISON. ELSEWHERE... THERE IS LESS CERTAINTY ABOUT
PRECIP TYPE SINCE IT WILL DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY THE PRECIP SPREADS
EAST TO THE LAKE. EXPECT A WINTRY MIX IN THE MORNING THAT
TRANSITIONS TO RAIN FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF QUICKLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING BEHIND THE
SHORTWAVE. DRIER AIR SHOULD SCOUR OUT CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS
DROPPING DOWN TO AROUND 30.

.LONG TERM...

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

THE ECMWF IS HOLDING ON TO THE IDEA OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED WEAK LOW PRESSURE BRINGING PRECIP INTO SOUTHERN WI MONDAY
NIGHT. OTHER MODELS KEEP THIS PRECIP WELL TO OUR NORTH. IT WOULD BE
RAIN IF IT HAPPENS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 50S... AND LOWS IN THE 30S.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL BUMP MAX TEMPS
INTO THE 60S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL BE OCCLUDING...
SO PRECIP SHOULD BE DELAYED UNTIL WED NIGHT AND LINGER INTO
THURSDAY. THE GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY...
SO A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER COULD BE POSSIBLE.

THE MODELS DIVERGE AS WE GET TO FRIDAY. THE ECWMF BRINGS A STRONG
SYSTEM WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW OVER SOUTHERN WI WITH A GOOD
AMOUNT OF QPF FOR NEXT FRI AND SAT. THE GFS DOES NOT SHOW THIS
SYSTEM AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS AND
CLEAR SKIES THROUGH TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST OF
THE REGION. A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT. LOOK FOR INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...ALONG WITH
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS. WE COULD HAVE SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
ISSUES BEGINNING ABOUT 09Z SUN AND CONTINUING INTO SUN MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...

INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROF OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS AFTER 06Z
SUN. A GALE WARNING THEN GOES INTO EFFECT AT 15Z SUN WITH WINDS
SUBSIDING BY MID AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY MIX OUT THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW LOCATIONS
POSSIBLY DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES HOLDING IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ645-
     646.

     GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 4 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ643-
     644.

&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DAVIS
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MRC





000
FXUS63 KMKX 280844
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
344 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH

IT/S A CHILLY START OUT THERE THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BROUGHT
CLEAR SKIES...CALM WINDS AND RADIATING TEMPS.  TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON WILL RECOVER INTO THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40 RANGE...WARMEST
NORTHWEST OF MADISON.  LOOK FOR FULL SUNSHINE AS WELL.

THE HIGH WILL SLIDE EAST BY TONIGHT WITH THE REGION GETTING INTO A
BETTER PRESSURE GRADIENT OVERNIGHT AS A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES QUICKLY FROM THE NORTHWEST. LOW TEMPS WILL LIKELY OCCUR
THIS EVENING WITH WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE TROF OVERPOWERING THE
NORMAL DIURNAL CURVE AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE COLUMN REMAINS DRY THROUGH
12Z...SO NO PRECIP EXPECTED BEFORE THEN...JUST STEADILY INCREASING
CLOUDS.

SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL SWING THROUGH
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND CROSS WISCONSIN ON SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING A BRIEF ROUND OF PRECIP TO SOUTHERN WI. THE TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL ALSO LEAD TO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS SUNDAY MORNING
THAT SWITCH TO WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH. TOTAL QPF SHOULD BE A QUARTER INCH OR LESS. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE 40S.

THERE IS QUITE A PUSH OF WARM AIR WITHIN THE AXIS OF A 60-KNOT LOW
LEVEL JET. THIS WILL SHIFT FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH SOUTHERN WI
SUNDAY MORNING... BASICALLY AT THE ONSET OF THE PRECIP. MORNING
TEMPS WILL BEGIN BELOW FREEZING... SO FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET IS
EXPECTED WEST OF MADISON. ELSEWHERE... THERE IS LESS CERTAINTY ABOUT
PRECIP TYPE SINCE IT WILL DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY THE PRECIP SPREADS
EAST TO THE LAKE. EXPECT A WINTRY MIX IN THE MORNING THAT
TRANSITIONS TO RAIN FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF QUICKLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING BEHIND THE
SHORTWAVE. DRIER AIR SHOULD SCOUR OUT CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS
DROPPING DOWN TO AROUND 30.

.LONG TERM...

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

THE ECMWF IS HOLDING ON TO THE IDEA OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED WEAK LOW PRESSURE BRINGING PRECIP INTO SOUTHERN WI MONDAY
NIGHT. OTHER MODELS KEEP THIS PRECIP WELL TO OUR NORTH. IT WOULD BE
RAIN IF IT HAPPENS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 50S... AND LOWS IN THE 30S.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL BUMP MAX TEMPS
INTO THE 60S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL BE OCCLUDING...
SO PRECIP SHOULD BE DELAYED UNTIL WED NIGHT AND LINGER INTO
THURSDAY. THE GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY...
SO A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER COULD BE POSSIBLE.

THE MODELS DIVERGE AS WE GET TO FRIDAY. THE ECWMF BRINGS A STRONG
SYSTEM WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW OVER SOUTHERN WI WITH A GOOD
AMOUNT OF QPF FOR NEXT FRI AND SAT. THE GFS DOES NOT SHOW THIS
SYSTEM AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS AND
CLEAR SKIES THROUGH TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST OF
THE REGION. A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT. LOOK FOR INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...ALONG WITH
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS. WE COULD HAVE SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
ISSUES BEGINNING ABOUT 09Z SUN AND CONTINUING INTO SUN MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...

INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROF OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS AFTER 06Z
SUN. A GALE WARNING THEN GOES INTO EFFECT AT 15Z SUN WITH WINDS
SUBSIDING BY MID AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY MIX OUT THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW LOCATIONS
POSSIBLY DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES HOLDING IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ645-
     646.

     GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 4 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ643-
     644.

&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DAVIS
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MRC





000
FXUS63 KMKX 280844
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
344 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH

IT/S A CHILLY START OUT THERE THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BROUGHT
CLEAR SKIES...CALM WINDS AND RADIATING TEMPS.  TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON WILL RECOVER INTO THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40 RANGE...WARMEST
NORTHWEST OF MADISON.  LOOK FOR FULL SUNSHINE AS WELL.

THE HIGH WILL SLIDE EAST BY TONIGHT WITH THE REGION GETTING INTO A
BETTER PRESSURE GRADIENT OVERNIGHT AS A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES QUICKLY FROM THE NORTHWEST. LOW TEMPS WILL LIKELY OCCUR
THIS EVENING WITH WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE TROF OVERPOWERING THE
NORMAL DIURNAL CURVE AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE COLUMN REMAINS DRY THROUGH
12Z...SO NO PRECIP EXPECTED BEFORE THEN...JUST STEADILY INCREASING
CLOUDS.

SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL SWING THROUGH
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND CROSS WISCONSIN ON SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING A BRIEF ROUND OF PRECIP TO SOUTHERN WI. THE TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL ALSO LEAD TO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS SUNDAY MORNING
THAT SWITCH TO WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH. TOTAL QPF SHOULD BE A QUARTER INCH OR LESS. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE 40S.

THERE IS QUITE A PUSH OF WARM AIR WITHIN THE AXIS OF A 60-KNOT LOW
LEVEL JET. THIS WILL SHIFT FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH SOUTHERN WI
SUNDAY MORNING... BASICALLY AT THE ONSET OF THE PRECIP. MORNING
TEMPS WILL BEGIN BELOW FREEZING... SO FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET IS
EXPECTED WEST OF MADISON. ELSEWHERE... THERE IS LESS CERTAINTY ABOUT
PRECIP TYPE SINCE IT WILL DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY THE PRECIP SPREADS
EAST TO THE LAKE. EXPECT A WINTRY MIX IN THE MORNING THAT
TRANSITIONS TO RAIN FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF QUICKLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING BEHIND THE
SHORTWAVE. DRIER AIR SHOULD SCOUR OUT CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS
DROPPING DOWN TO AROUND 30.

.LONG TERM...

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

THE ECMWF IS HOLDING ON TO THE IDEA OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED WEAK LOW PRESSURE BRINGING PRECIP INTO SOUTHERN WI MONDAY
NIGHT. OTHER MODELS KEEP THIS PRECIP WELL TO OUR NORTH. IT WOULD BE
RAIN IF IT HAPPENS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 50S... AND LOWS IN THE 30S.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL BUMP MAX TEMPS
INTO THE 60S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL BE OCCLUDING...
SO PRECIP SHOULD BE DELAYED UNTIL WED NIGHT AND LINGER INTO
THURSDAY. THE GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY...
SO A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER COULD BE POSSIBLE.

THE MODELS DIVERGE AS WE GET TO FRIDAY. THE ECWMF BRINGS A STRONG
SYSTEM WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW OVER SOUTHERN WI WITH A GOOD
AMOUNT OF QPF FOR NEXT FRI AND SAT. THE GFS DOES NOT SHOW THIS
SYSTEM AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS AND
CLEAR SKIES THROUGH TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST OF
THE REGION. A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT. LOOK FOR INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...ALONG WITH
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS. WE COULD HAVE SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
ISSUES BEGINNING ABOUT 09Z SUN AND CONTINUING INTO SUN MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...

INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROF OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS AFTER 06Z
SUN. A GALE WARNING THEN GOES INTO EFFECT AT 15Z SUN WITH WINDS
SUBSIDING BY MID AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY MIX OUT THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW LOCATIONS
POSSIBLY DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES HOLDING IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ645-
     646.

     GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 4 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ643-
     644.

&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DAVIS
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MRC




000
FXUS63 KMKX 280253
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
953 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...FORTUNATELY LOW LEVELS REMAIN DRY AS LOW LEVEL WINDS
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE NNE OVERNIGHT ACROSS SRN LAKESHORE AREAS.
WITH LARGE DELTA-T...NOT IMPOSSIBLE SOME SCT TO BRIEFLY BKN LOW
CLOUDS COULD AFFECT FAR SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER WL REMAIN
MORE OPTIMISTIC FOR NOW DUE TO DIMINISHING LOW LEVEL WINDS AND
LITTLE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. OTRW LOWERED OVERNIGHT TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES AT SOME INLAND ERN LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...MAY BE SOME SCT TO
BRIEFLY BKN MVFR CLOUDS AFFECTING KENW...KMKE SITES OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY SAT. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY...WL JUST GO WITH FEW-SCT FOR NOW.
OTRW...A VFR PERIOD WITH THICKENING MID-HIGH CLOUDS SAT NGT.

&&

.MARINE...CANCELLED LAST FEW HOURS OF SMALL CRAFT ADVY AS WINDS
AND WAVES HAVE DIMINISHED. STRONG WINDS EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY COULD REACH GALE FORCE...OTHERWISE SLAM DUNK ON
REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVY LEVELS LATER SAT NIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH

PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX THIS EVENING...ALLOWING GUSTY WINDS TO
SUBSIDE AS SURFACE RIDGING SHIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS CROSSES SOUTHEASTERN WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT...BRINGING COOL
AND QUIET CONDITIONS. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL BE
WEAKENING...AND NEARING NEUTRAL BY MIDNIGHT...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS / AT LEAST AWAY FROM THE LAKESHORE / WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS.

SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH

HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA...AS UPSTREAM SURFACE
TROUGHING ADVANCES FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WINDS VEER SOUTHERLY ACROSS THE AREA BY
AFTERNOON WITH WARM LOW-LEVEL THERMAL ADVECTION KICKING IN BY
EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME MODERATION IN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
FROM TODAY...WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S FOR MOST
AREAS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG THE LAKESHORE...WHERE A
NORTHEASTERLY WIND COMPONENT WILL PERSIST THROUGH MIDDAY. HIGHS IN
THIS AREA WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE LOWER 30S AS A RESULT.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

EXPECT QUIET WEATHER SATURDAY NIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE.

WIDESPREAD PRECIP IS THEN EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE AND
COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. BETWEEN MODEL TIMING AND
THERMAL PROFILE DIFFERENCES...NOT AN EASY PRECIP TYPE FORECAST.
TAKING A GENERAL CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS...IT LOOKS LIKE PRECIP
COULD START AS SNOW...SLEET...OR FREEZING RAIN EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
AS SURFACE TEMPS WARM UP...SHOULD SEE MAINLY SNOW/SLEET/RAIN CHANCES
THROUGH LATE MORNING. KEPT A CHANCE OF SNOW ALONG WITH RAIN INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON...SINCE THE LOW LEVEL WARM LAYER IS PRETTY SHALLOW
ON SOUNDINGS. EVEN IF TEMPS GET INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S...STILL LOOKS
COLD ENOUGH ALOFT FOR SNOW. BEST CHANCE FOR PROLONGED SNOW WILL BE
IN THE NORTHEAST WHERE TEMPS ALOFT REMAIN BELOW 0C THE LONGEST.
GIVEN THE EXPECTED SFC TEMPS AND THE TIME OF YEAR...WILL LIKELY
STRUGGLE TO SEE ANY FROZEN STUFF ACCUMULATE ON THE
PAVEMENT...ESPECIALLY BY LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

LOOKS PRETTY QUIET SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
THROUGH. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A SHORTWAVE MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS
ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH THE LOCATION OF THIS SYSTEM. FARTHER
NORTH GFS WOULD BE MILDER AND COMPLETELY DRY...WHILE SOUTHERN ECMWF
AND CANADIAN SUGGEST A COLDER AIRMASS ALONG WITH RAIN/SNOW CHANCES.
WENT WITH LOW POPS FOR RAIN/SNOW FOR NOW GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

SHOULD BE DRY WEATHER UNDER HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY. MODELS STRUGGLING
TO AGREE ON TEMPS THOUGH...WITH ECMWF/CANADIAN HOLDING ONTO A COLDER
AIRMASS...WHILE THE GFS IS QUICKER TO MOVE UPPER RIDGING AND MILDER
TEMPS INTO THE AREA. TEMPS LEANED A BIT TOWARD THE MILDER GFS AS IT
HAS BEEN A MORE CONSISTENT SOLUTION...THOUGH WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN
EYE ON LOWERING TEMPS IF THE ECMWF/CANADIAN SETUP EVENTUALLY LOOKS
MORE LIKELY.

MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT FOR WARMER TEMPS WED/THU. LOOKS LIKE A
TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH BY THURSDAY
MORNING...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST AREA.
BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SEEING A LITTLE
ELEVATED INSTABILITY AS THE COLD FRONT GOES THROUGH...SO MAY HAVE TO
EVENTUALLY CONSIDER ADDING THUNDER TO THE FORECAST.

COOLER TEMPS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR FRIDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH
AND COLD FRONT. THE GFS IS DRY...WHILE THE ECMWF STALLS THE COLD
FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND KEEPS RAIN CHANCES GOING
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. PUT SOME LOW POPS IN THERE FOR NOW.

AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SCATTERED 3-4
KFT CLOUD DECK AFFECTING KMKE AND KENW THIS AFTERNOON WILL
DISSIPATE BY LATE AFTERNOON...WITH CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. GUSTY
NORTH TO NORTH- NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL EASE THIS EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

MARINE...

NO CHANGES TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WITH BRISK NORTH TO NORTH-
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS CONTINUING ALONG THE LAKESHORE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THIS...COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE FETCH...WILL KEEP WAVES
HIGH. WINDS WILL EASE THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION...BUT WAVES WILL TAKE A FEW HOURS TO SUBSIDE BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS.

NORTHEASTERLY WINDS SATURDAY MORNING WILL VEER SOUTHERLY BY
AFTERNOON AND INCREASE SUNDAY MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
SURFACE TROUGH. LOWER END GALE FORE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ON
SUNDAY...AND PER COORDINATION WITH GRB/LOT HAVE HOISTED A GALE WATCH
FROM 09Z-21Z.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...GALE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MBK





000
FXUS63 KMKX 280253
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
953 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...FORTUNATELY LOW LEVELS REMAIN DRY AS LOW LEVEL WINDS
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE NNE OVERNIGHT ACROSS SRN LAKESHORE AREAS.
WITH LARGE DELTA-T...NOT IMPOSSIBLE SOME SCT TO BRIEFLY BKN LOW
CLOUDS COULD AFFECT FAR SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER WL REMAIN
MORE OPTIMISTIC FOR NOW DUE TO DIMINISHING LOW LEVEL WINDS AND
LITTLE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. OTRW LOWERED OVERNIGHT TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES AT SOME INLAND ERN LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...MAY BE SOME SCT TO
BRIEFLY BKN MVFR CLOUDS AFFECTING KENW...KMKE SITES OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY SAT. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY...WL JUST GO WITH FEW-SCT FOR NOW.
OTRW...A VFR PERIOD WITH THICKENING MID-HIGH CLOUDS SAT NGT.

&&

.MARINE...CANCELLED LAST FEW HOURS OF SMALL CRAFT ADVY AS WINDS
AND WAVES HAVE DIMINISHED. STRONG WINDS EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY COULD REACH GALE FORCE...OTHERWISE SLAM DUNK ON
REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVY LEVELS LATER SAT NIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH

PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX THIS EVENING...ALLOWING GUSTY WINDS TO
SUBSIDE AS SURFACE RIDGING SHIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS CROSSES SOUTHEASTERN WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT...BRINGING COOL
AND QUIET CONDITIONS. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL BE
WEAKENING...AND NEARING NEUTRAL BY MIDNIGHT...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS / AT LEAST AWAY FROM THE LAKESHORE / WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS.

SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH

HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA...AS UPSTREAM SURFACE
TROUGHING ADVANCES FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WINDS VEER SOUTHERLY ACROSS THE AREA BY
AFTERNOON WITH WARM LOW-LEVEL THERMAL ADVECTION KICKING IN BY
EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME MODERATION IN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
FROM TODAY...WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S FOR MOST
AREAS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG THE LAKESHORE...WHERE A
NORTHEASTERLY WIND COMPONENT WILL PERSIST THROUGH MIDDAY. HIGHS IN
THIS AREA WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE LOWER 30S AS A RESULT.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

EXPECT QUIET WEATHER SATURDAY NIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE.

WIDESPREAD PRECIP IS THEN EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE AND
COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. BETWEEN MODEL TIMING AND
THERMAL PROFILE DIFFERENCES...NOT AN EASY PRECIP TYPE FORECAST.
TAKING A GENERAL CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS...IT LOOKS LIKE PRECIP
COULD START AS SNOW...SLEET...OR FREEZING RAIN EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
AS SURFACE TEMPS WARM UP...SHOULD SEE MAINLY SNOW/SLEET/RAIN CHANCES
THROUGH LATE MORNING. KEPT A CHANCE OF SNOW ALONG WITH RAIN INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON...SINCE THE LOW LEVEL WARM LAYER IS PRETTY SHALLOW
ON SOUNDINGS. EVEN IF TEMPS GET INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S...STILL LOOKS
COLD ENOUGH ALOFT FOR SNOW. BEST CHANCE FOR PROLONGED SNOW WILL BE
IN THE NORTHEAST WHERE TEMPS ALOFT REMAIN BELOW 0C THE LONGEST.
GIVEN THE EXPECTED SFC TEMPS AND THE TIME OF YEAR...WILL LIKELY
STRUGGLE TO SEE ANY FROZEN STUFF ACCUMULATE ON THE
PAVEMENT...ESPECIALLY BY LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

LOOKS PRETTY QUIET SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
THROUGH. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A SHORTWAVE MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS
ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH THE LOCATION OF THIS SYSTEM. FARTHER
NORTH GFS WOULD BE MILDER AND COMPLETELY DRY...WHILE SOUTHERN ECMWF
AND CANADIAN SUGGEST A COLDER AIRMASS ALONG WITH RAIN/SNOW CHANCES.
WENT WITH LOW POPS FOR RAIN/SNOW FOR NOW GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

SHOULD BE DRY WEATHER UNDER HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY. MODELS STRUGGLING
TO AGREE ON TEMPS THOUGH...WITH ECMWF/CANADIAN HOLDING ONTO A COLDER
AIRMASS...WHILE THE GFS IS QUICKER TO MOVE UPPER RIDGING AND MILDER
TEMPS INTO THE AREA. TEMPS LEANED A BIT TOWARD THE MILDER GFS AS IT
HAS BEEN A MORE CONSISTENT SOLUTION...THOUGH WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN
EYE ON LOWERING TEMPS IF THE ECMWF/CANADIAN SETUP EVENTUALLY LOOKS
MORE LIKELY.

MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT FOR WARMER TEMPS WED/THU. LOOKS LIKE A
TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH BY THURSDAY
MORNING...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST AREA.
BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SEEING A LITTLE
ELEVATED INSTABILITY AS THE COLD FRONT GOES THROUGH...SO MAY HAVE TO
EVENTUALLY CONSIDER ADDING THUNDER TO THE FORECAST.

COOLER TEMPS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR FRIDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH
AND COLD FRONT. THE GFS IS DRY...WHILE THE ECMWF STALLS THE COLD
FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND KEEPS RAIN CHANCES GOING
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. PUT SOME LOW POPS IN THERE FOR NOW.

AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SCATTERED 3-4
KFT CLOUD DECK AFFECTING KMKE AND KENW THIS AFTERNOON WILL
DISSIPATE BY LATE AFTERNOON...WITH CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. GUSTY
NORTH TO NORTH- NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL EASE THIS EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

MARINE...

NO CHANGES TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WITH BRISK NORTH TO NORTH-
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS CONTINUING ALONG THE LAKESHORE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THIS...COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE FETCH...WILL KEEP WAVES
HIGH. WINDS WILL EASE THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION...BUT WAVES WILL TAKE A FEW HOURS TO SUBSIDE BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS.

NORTHEASTERLY WINDS SATURDAY MORNING WILL VEER SOUTHERLY BY
AFTERNOON AND INCREASE SUNDAY MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
SURFACE TROUGH. LOWER END GALE FORE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ON
SUNDAY...AND PER COORDINATION WITH GRB/LOT HAVE HOISTED A GALE WATCH
FROM 09Z-21Z.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...GALE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MBK




000
FXUS63 KMKX 280253
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
953 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...FORTUNATELY LOW LEVELS REMAIN DRY AS LOW LEVEL WINDS
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE NNE OVERNIGHT ACROSS SRN LAKESHORE AREAS.
WITH LARGE DELTA-T...NOT IMPOSSIBLE SOME SCT TO BRIEFLY BKN LOW
CLOUDS COULD AFFECT FAR SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER WL REMAIN
MORE OPTIMISTIC FOR NOW DUE TO DIMINISHING LOW LEVEL WINDS AND
LITTLE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. OTRW LOWERED OVERNIGHT TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES AT SOME INLAND ERN LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...MAY BE SOME SCT TO
BRIEFLY BKN MVFR CLOUDS AFFECTING KENW...KMKE SITES OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY SAT. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY...WL JUST GO WITH FEW-SCT FOR NOW.
OTRW...A VFR PERIOD WITH THICKENING MID-HIGH CLOUDS SAT NGT.

&&

.MARINE...CANCELLED LAST FEW HOURS OF SMALL CRAFT ADVY AS WINDS
AND WAVES HAVE DIMINISHED. STRONG WINDS EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY COULD REACH GALE FORCE...OTHERWISE SLAM DUNK ON
REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVY LEVELS LATER SAT NIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH

PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX THIS EVENING...ALLOWING GUSTY WINDS TO
SUBSIDE AS SURFACE RIDGING SHIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS CROSSES SOUTHEASTERN WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT...BRINGING COOL
AND QUIET CONDITIONS. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL BE
WEAKENING...AND NEARING NEUTRAL BY MIDNIGHT...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS / AT LEAST AWAY FROM THE LAKESHORE / WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS.

SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH

HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA...AS UPSTREAM SURFACE
TROUGHING ADVANCES FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WINDS VEER SOUTHERLY ACROSS THE AREA BY
AFTERNOON WITH WARM LOW-LEVEL THERMAL ADVECTION KICKING IN BY
EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME MODERATION IN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
FROM TODAY...WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S FOR MOST
AREAS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG THE LAKESHORE...WHERE A
NORTHEASTERLY WIND COMPONENT WILL PERSIST THROUGH MIDDAY. HIGHS IN
THIS AREA WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE LOWER 30S AS A RESULT.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

EXPECT QUIET WEATHER SATURDAY NIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE.

WIDESPREAD PRECIP IS THEN EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE AND
COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. BETWEEN MODEL TIMING AND
THERMAL PROFILE DIFFERENCES...NOT AN EASY PRECIP TYPE FORECAST.
TAKING A GENERAL CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS...IT LOOKS LIKE PRECIP
COULD START AS SNOW...SLEET...OR FREEZING RAIN EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
AS SURFACE TEMPS WARM UP...SHOULD SEE MAINLY SNOW/SLEET/RAIN CHANCES
THROUGH LATE MORNING. KEPT A CHANCE OF SNOW ALONG WITH RAIN INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON...SINCE THE LOW LEVEL WARM LAYER IS PRETTY SHALLOW
ON SOUNDINGS. EVEN IF TEMPS GET INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S...STILL LOOKS
COLD ENOUGH ALOFT FOR SNOW. BEST CHANCE FOR PROLONGED SNOW WILL BE
IN THE NORTHEAST WHERE TEMPS ALOFT REMAIN BELOW 0C THE LONGEST.
GIVEN THE EXPECTED SFC TEMPS AND THE TIME OF YEAR...WILL LIKELY
STRUGGLE TO SEE ANY FROZEN STUFF ACCUMULATE ON THE
PAVEMENT...ESPECIALLY BY LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

LOOKS PRETTY QUIET SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
THROUGH. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A SHORTWAVE MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS
ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH THE LOCATION OF THIS SYSTEM. FARTHER
NORTH GFS WOULD BE MILDER AND COMPLETELY DRY...WHILE SOUTHERN ECMWF
AND CANADIAN SUGGEST A COLDER AIRMASS ALONG WITH RAIN/SNOW CHANCES.
WENT WITH LOW POPS FOR RAIN/SNOW FOR NOW GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

SHOULD BE DRY WEATHER UNDER HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY. MODELS STRUGGLING
TO AGREE ON TEMPS THOUGH...WITH ECMWF/CANADIAN HOLDING ONTO A COLDER
AIRMASS...WHILE THE GFS IS QUICKER TO MOVE UPPER RIDGING AND MILDER
TEMPS INTO THE AREA. TEMPS LEANED A BIT TOWARD THE MILDER GFS AS IT
HAS BEEN A MORE CONSISTENT SOLUTION...THOUGH WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN
EYE ON LOWERING TEMPS IF THE ECMWF/CANADIAN SETUP EVENTUALLY LOOKS
MORE LIKELY.

MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT FOR WARMER TEMPS WED/THU. LOOKS LIKE A
TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH BY THURSDAY
MORNING...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST AREA.
BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SEEING A LITTLE
ELEVATED INSTABILITY AS THE COLD FRONT GOES THROUGH...SO MAY HAVE TO
EVENTUALLY CONSIDER ADDING THUNDER TO THE FORECAST.

COOLER TEMPS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR FRIDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH
AND COLD FRONT. THE GFS IS DRY...WHILE THE ECMWF STALLS THE COLD
FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND KEEPS RAIN CHANCES GOING
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. PUT SOME LOW POPS IN THERE FOR NOW.

AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SCATTERED 3-4
KFT CLOUD DECK AFFECTING KMKE AND KENW THIS AFTERNOON WILL
DISSIPATE BY LATE AFTERNOON...WITH CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. GUSTY
NORTH TO NORTH- NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL EASE THIS EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

MARINE...

NO CHANGES TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WITH BRISK NORTH TO NORTH-
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS CONTINUING ALONG THE LAKESHORE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THIS...COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE FETCH...WILL KEEP WAVES
HIGH. WINDS WILL EASE THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION...BUT WAVES WILL TAKE A FEW HOURS TO SUBSIDE BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS.

NORTHEASTERLY WINDS SATURDAY MORNING WILL VEER SOUTHERLY BY
AFTERNOON AND INCREASE SUNDAY MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
SURFACE TROUGH. LOWER END GALE FORE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ON
SUNDAY...AND PER COORDINATION WITH GRB/LOT HAVE HOISTED A GALE WATCH
FROM 09Z-21Z.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...GALE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MBK




000
FXUS63 KMKX 280253
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
953 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...FORTUNATELY LOW LEVELS REMAIN DRY AS LOW LEVEL WINDS
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE NNE OVERNIGHT ACROSS SRN LAKESHORE AREAS.
WITH LARGE DELTA-T...NOT IMPOSSIBLE SOME SCT TO BRIEFLY BKN LOW
CLOUDS COULD AFFECT FAR SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER WL REMAIN
MORE OPTIMISTIC FOR NOW DUE TO DIMINISHING LOW LEVEL WINDS AND
LITTLE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. OTRW LOWERED OVERNIGHT TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES AT SOME INLAND ERN LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...MAY BE SOME SCT TO
BRIEFLY BKN MVFR CLOUDS AFFECTING KENW...KMKE SITES OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY SAT. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY...WL JUST GO WITH FEW-SCT FOR NOW.
OTRW...A VFR PERIOD WITH THICKENING MID-HIGH CLOUDS SAT NGT.

&&

.MARINE...CANCELLED LAST FEW HOURS OF SMALL CRAFT ADVY AS WINDS
AND WAVES HAVE DIMINISHED. STRONG WINDS EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY COULD REACH GALE FORCE...OTHERWISE SLAM DUNK ON
REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVY LEVELS LATER SAT NIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH

PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX THIS EVENING...ALLOWING GUSTY WINDS TO
SUBSIDE AS SURFACE RIDGING SHIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS CROSSES SOUTHEASTERN WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT...BRINGING COOL
AND QUIET CONDITIONS. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL BE
WEAKENING...AND NEARING NEUTRAL BY MIDNIGHT...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS / AT LEAST AWAY FROM THE LAKESHORE / WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS.

SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH

HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA...AS UPSTREAM SURFACE
TROUGHING ADVANCES FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WINDS VEER SOUTHERLY ACROSS THE AREA BY
AFTERNOON WITH WARM LOW-LEVEL THERMAL ADVECTION KICKING IN BY
EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME MODERATION IN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
FROM TODAY...WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S FOR MOST
AREAS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG THE LAKESHORE...WHERE A
NORTHEASTERLY WIND COMPONENT WILL PERSIST THROUGH MIDDAY. HIGHS IN
THIS AREA WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE LOWER 30S AS A RESULT.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

EXPECT QUIET WEATHER SATURDAY NIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE.

WIDESPREAD PRECIP IS THEN EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE AND
COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. BETWEEN MODEL TIMING AND
THERMAL PROFILE DIFFERENCES...NOT AN EASY PRECIP TYPE FORECAST.
TAKING A GENERAL CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS...IT LOOKS LIKE PRECIP
COULD START AS SNOW...SLEET...OR FREEZING RAIN EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
AS SURFACE TEMPS WARM UP...SHOULD SEE MAINLY SNOW/SLEET/RAIN CHANCES
THROUGH LATE MORNING. KEPT A CHANCE OF SNOW ALONG WITH RAIN INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON...SINCE THE LOW LEVEL WARM LAYER IS PRETTY SHALLOW
ON SOUNDINGS. EVEN IF TEMPS GET INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S...STILL LOOKS
COLD ENOUGH ALOFT FOR SNOW. BEST CHANCE FOR PROLONGED SNOW WILL BE
IN THE NORTHEAST WHERE TEMPS ALOFT REMAIN BELOW 0C THE LONGEST.
GIVEN THE EXPECTED SFC TEMPS AND THE TIME OF YEAR...WILL LIKELY
STRUGGLE TO SEE ANY FROZEN STUFF ACCUMULATE ON THE
PAVEMENT...ESPECIALLY BY LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

LOOKS PRETTY QUIET SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
THROUGH. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A SHORTWAVE MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS
ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH THE LOCATION OF THIS SYSTEM. FARTHER
NORTH GFS WOULD BE MILDER AND COMPLETELY DRY...WHILE SOUTHERN ECMWF
AND CANADIAN SUGGEST A COLDER AIRMASS ALONG WITH RAIN/SNOW CHANCES.
WENT WITH LOW POPS FOR RAIN/SNOW FOR NOW GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

SHOULD BE DRY WEATHER UNDER HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY. MODELS STRUGGLING
TO AGREE ON TEMPS THOUGH...WITH ECMWF/CANADIAN HOLDING ONTO A COLDER
AIRMASS...WHILE THE GFS IS QUICKER TO MOVE UPPER RIDGING AND MILDER
TEMPS INTO THE AREA. TEMPS LEANED A BIT TOWARD THE MILDER GFS AS IT
HAS BEEN A MORE CONSISTENT SOLUTION...THOUGH WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN
EYE ON LOWERING TEMPS IF THE ECMWF/CANADIAN SETUP EVENTUALLY LOOKS
MORE LIKELY.

MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT FOR WARMER TEMPS WED/THU. LOOKS LIKE A
TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH BY THURSDAY
MORNING...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST AREA.
BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SEEING A LITTLE
ELEVATED INSTABILITY AS THE COLD FRONT GOES THROUGH...SO MAY HAVE TO
EVENTUALLY CONSIDER ADDING THUNDER TO THE FORECAST.

COOLER TEMPS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR FRIDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH
AND COLD FRONT. THE GFS IS DRY...WHILE THE ECMWF STALLS THE COLD
FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND KEEPS RAIN CHANCES GOING
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. PUT SOME LOW POPS IN THERE FOR NOW.

AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SCATTERED 3-4
KFT CLOUD DECK AFFECTING KMKE AND KENW THIS AFTERNOON WILL
DISSIPATE BY LATE AFTERNOON...WITH CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. GUSTY
NORTH TO NORTH- NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL EASE THIS EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

MARINE...

NO CHANGES TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WITH BRISK NORTH TO NORTH-
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS CONTINUING ALONG THE LAKESHORE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THIS...COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE FETCH...WILL KEEP WAVES
HIGH. WINDS WILL EASE THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION...BUT WAVES WILL TAKE A FEW HOURS TO SUBSIDE BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS.

NORTHEASTERLY WINDS SATURDAY MORNING WILL VEER SOUTHERLY BY
AFTERNOON AND INCREASE SUNDAY MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
SURFACE TROUGH. LOWER END GALE FORE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ON
SUNDAY...AND PER COORDINATION WITH GRB/LOT HAVE HOISTED A GALE WATCH
FROM 09Z-21Z.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...GALE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MBK





000
FXUS63 KMKX 272026
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
326 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH

PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX THIS EVENING...ALLOWING GUSTY WINDS TO
SUBSIDE AS SURFACE RIDGING SHIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS CROSSES SOUTHEASTERN WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT...BRINGING COOL
AND QUIET CONDITIONS. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL BE
WEAKENING...AND NEARING NEUTRAL BY MIDNIGHT...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS / AT LEAST AWAY FROM THE LAKESHORE / WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS.

.SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH

HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA...AS UPSTREAM SURFACE
TROUGHING ADVANCES FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WINDS VEER SOUTHERLY ACROSS THE AREA BY
AFTERNOON WITH WARM LOW-LEVEL THERMAL ADVECTION KICKING IN BY
EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME MODERATION IN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
FROM TODAY...WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S FOR MOST
AREAS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG THE LAKESHORE...WHERE A
NORTHEASTERLY WIND COMPONENT WILL PERSIST THROUGH MIDDAY. HIGHS IN
THIS AREA WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE LOWER 30S AS A RESULT.

.SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

EXPECT QUIET WEATHER SATURDAY NIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE.

WIDESPREAD PRECIP IS THEN EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE AND
COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. BETWEEN MODEL TIMING AND
THERMAL PROFILE DIFFERENCES...NOT AN EASY PRECIP TYPE FORECAST.
TAKING A GENERAL CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS...IT LOOKS LIKE PRECIP
COULD START AS SNOW...SLEET...OR FREEZING RAIN EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
AS SURFACE TEMPS WARM UP...SHOULD SEE MAINLY SNOW/SLEET/RAIN CHANCES
THROUGH LATE MORNING. KEPT A CHANCE OF SNOW ALONG WITH RAIN INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON...SINCE THE LOW LEVEL WARM LAYER IS PRETTY SHALLOW
ON SOUNDINGS. EVEN IF TEMPS GET INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S...STILL LOOKS
COLD ENOUGH ALOFT FOR SNOW. BEST CHANCE FOR PROLONGED SNOW WILL BE
IN THE NORTHEAST WHERE TEMPS ALOFT REMAIN BELOW 0C THE LONGEST.
GIVEN THE EXPECTED SFC TEMPS AND THE TIME OF YEAR...WILL LIKELY
STRUGGLE TO SEE ANY FROZEN STUFF ACCUMULATE ON THE
PAVEMENT...ESPECIALLY BY LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

LOOKS PRETTY QUIET SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
THROUGH. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A SHORTWAVE MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS
ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH THE LOCATION OF THIS SYSTEM. FARTHER
NORTH GFS WOULD BE MILDER AND COMPLETELY DRY...WHILE SOUTHERN ECMWF
AND CANADIAN SUGGEST A COLDER AIRMASS ALONG WITH RAIN/SNOW CHANCES.
WENT WITH LOW POPS FOR RAIN/SNOW FOR NOW GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY.

.TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

SHOULD BE DRY WEATHER UNDER HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY. MODELS STRUGGLING
TO AGREE ON TEMPS THOUGH...WITH ECMWF/CANADIAN HOLDING ONTO A COLDER
AIRMASS...WHILE THE GFS IS QUICKER TO MOVE UPPER RIDGING AND MILDER
TEMPS INTO THE AREA. TEMPS LEANED A BIT TOWARD THE MILDER GFS AS IT
HAS BEEN A MORE CONSISTENT SOLUTION...THOUGH WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN
EYE ON LOWERING TEMPS IF THE ECMWF/CANADIAN SETUP EVENTUALLY LOOKS
MORE LIKELY.

MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT FOR WARMER TEMPS WED/THU. LOOKS LIKE A
TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH BY THURSDAY
MORNING...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST AREA.
BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SEEING A LITTLE
ELEVATED INSTABILITY AS THE COLD FRONT GOES THROUGH...SO MAY HAVE TO
EVENTUALLY CONSIDER ADDING THUNDER TO THE FORECAST.

COOLER TEMPS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR FRIDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH
AND COLD FRONT. THE GFS IS DRY...WHILE THE ECMWF STALLS THE COLD
FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND KEEPS RAIN CHANCES GOING
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. PUT SOME LOW POPS IN THERE FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SCATTERED 3-4
KFT CLOUD DECK AFFECTING KMKE AND KENW THIS AFTERNOON WILL
DISSIPATE BY LATE AFTERNOON...WITH CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. GUSTY
NORTH TO NORTH- NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL EASE THIS EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...

NO CHANGES TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WITH BRISK NORTH TO NORTH-
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS CONTINUING ALONG THE LAKESHORE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THIS...COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE FETCH...WILL KEEP WAVES
HIGH. WINDS WILL EASE THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION...BUT WAVES WILL TAKE A FEW HOURS TO SUBSIDE BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS.

NORTHEASTERLY WINDS SATURDAY MORNING WILL VEER SOUTHERLY BY
AFTERNOON AND INCREASE SUNDAY MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
SURFACE TROUGH. LOWER END GALE FORE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ON
SUNDAY...AND PER COORDINATION WITH GRB/LOT HAVE HOISTED A GALE WATCH
FROM 09Z-21Z.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...GALE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     LMZ643>646.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

TONIGHT/SATURDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...SPM
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...DDV




000
FXUS63 KMKX 272026
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
326 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH

PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX THIS EVENING...ALLOWING GUSTY WINDS TO
SUBSIDE AS SURFACE RIDGING SHIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS CROSSES SOUTHEASTERN WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT...BRINGING COOL
AND QUIET CONDITIONS. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL BE
WEAKENING...AND NEARING NEUTRAL BY MIDNIGHT...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS / AT LEAST AWAY FROM THE LAKESHORE / WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS.

.SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH

HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA...AS UPSTREAM SURFACE
TROUGHING ADVANCES FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WINDS VEER SOUTHERLY ACROSS THE AREA BY
AFTERNOON WITH WARM LOW-LEVEL THERMAL ADVECTION KICKING IN BY
EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME MODERATION IN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
FROM TODAY...WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S FOR MOST
AREAS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG THE LAKESHORE...WHERE A
NORTHEASTERLY WIND COMPONENT WILL PERSIST THROUGH MIDDAY. HIGHS IN
THIS AREA WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE LOWER 30S AS A RESULT.

.SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

EXPECT QUIET WEATHER SATURDAY NIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE.

WIDESPREAD PRECIP IS THEN EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE AND
COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. BETWEEN MODEL TIMING AND
THERMAL PROFILE DIFFERENCES...NOT AN EASY PRECIP TYPE FORECAST.
TAKING A GENERAL CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS...IT LOOKS LIKE PRECIP
COULD START AS SNOW...SLEET...OR FREEZING RAIN EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
AS SURFACE TEMPS WARM UP...SHOULD SEE MAINLY SNOW/SLEET/RAIN CHANCES
THROUGH LATE MORNING. KEPT A CHANCE OF SNOW ALONG WITH RAIN INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON...SINCE THE LOW LEVEL WARM LAYER IS PRETTY SHALLOW
ON SOUNDINGS. EVEN IF TEMPS GET INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S...STILL LOOKS
COLD ENOUGH ALOFT FOR SNOW. BEST CHANCE FOR PROLONGED SNOW WILL BE
IN THE NORTHEAST WHERE TEMPS ALOFT REMAIN BELOW 0C THE LONGEST.
GIVEN THE EXPECTED SFC TEMPS AND THE TIME OF YEAR...WILL LIKELY
STRUGGLE TO SEE ANY FROZEN STUFF ACCUMULATE ON THE
PAVEMENT...ESPECIALLY BY LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

LOOKS PRETTY QUIET SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
THROUGH. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A SHORTWAVE MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS
ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH THE LOCATION OF THIS SYSTEM. FARTHER
NORTH GFS WOULD BE MILDER AND COMPLETELY DRY...WHILE SOUTHERN ECMWF
AND CANADIAN SUGGEST A COLDER AIRMASS ALONG WITH RAIN/SNOW CHANCES.
WENT WITH LOW POPS FOR RAIN/SNOW FOR NOW GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY.

.TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

SHOULD BE DRY WEATHER UNDER HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY. MODELS STRUGGLING
TO AGREE ON TEMPS THOUGH...WITH ECMWF/CANADIAN HOLDING ONTO A COLDER
AIRMASS...WHILE THE GFS IS QUICKER TO MOVE UPPER RIDGING AND MILDER
TEMPS INTO THE AREA. TEMPS LEANED A BIT TOWARD THE MILDER GFS AS IT
HAS BEEN A MORE CONSISTENT SOLUTION...THOUGH WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN
EYE ON LOWERING TEMPS IF THE ECMWF/CANADIAN SETUP EVENTUALLY LOOKS
MORE LIKELY.

MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT FOR WARMER TEMPS WED/THU. LOOKS LIKE A
TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH BY THURSDAY
MORNING...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST AREA.
BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SEEING A LITTLE
ELEVATED INSTABILITY AS THE COLD FRONT GOES THROUGH...SO MAY HAVE TO
EVENTUALLY CONSIDER ADDING THUNDER TO THE FORECAST.

COOLER TEMPS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR FRIDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH
AND COLD FRONT. THE GFS IS DRY...WHILE THE ECMWF STALLS THE COLD
FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND KEEPS RAIN CHANCES GOING
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. PUT SOME LOW POPS IN THERE FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SCATTERED 3-4
KFT CLOUD DECK AFFECTING KMKE AND KENW THIS AFTERNOON WILL
DISSIPATE BY LATE AFTERNOON...WITH CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. GUSTY
NORTH TO NORTH- NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL EASE THIS EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...

NO CHANGES TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WITH BRISK NORTH TO NORTH-
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS CONTINUING ALONG THE LAKESHORE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THIS...COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE FETCH...WILL KEEP WAVES
HIGH. WINDS WILL EASE THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION...BUT WAVES WILL TAKE A FEW HOURS TO SUBSIDE BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS.

NORTHEASTERLY WINDS SATURDAY MORNING WILL VEER SOUTHERLY BY
AFTERNOON AND INCREASE SUNDAY MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
SURFACE TROUGH. LOWER END GALE FORE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ON
SUNDAY...AND PER COORDINATION WITH GRB/LOT HAVE HOISTED A GALE WATCH
FROM 09Z-21Z.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...GALE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     LMZ643>646.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

TONIGHT/SATURDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...SPM
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...DDV




000
FXUS63 KMKX 272026
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
326 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH

PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX THIS EVENING...ALLOWING GUSTY WINDS TO
SUBSIDE AS SURFACE RIDGING SHIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS CROSSES SOUTHEASTERN WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT...BRINGING COOL
AND QUIET CONDITIONS. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL BE
WEAKENING...AND NEARING NEUTRAL BY MIDNIGHT...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS / AT LEAST AWAY FROM THE LAKESHORE / WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS.

.SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH

HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA...AS UPSTREAM SURFACE
TROUGHING ADVANCES FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WINDS VEER SOUTHERLY ACROSS THE AREA BY
AFTERNOON WITH WARM LOW-LEVEL THERMAL ADVECTION KICKING IN BY
EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME MODERATION IN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
FROM TODAY...WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S FOR MOST
AREAS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG THE LAKESHORE...WHERE A
NORTHEASTERLY WIND COMPONENT WILL PERSIST THROUGH MIDDAY. HIGHS IN
THIS AREA WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE LOWER 30S AS A RESULT.

.SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

EXPECT QUIET WEATHER SATURDAY NIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE.

WIDESPREAD PRECIP IS THEN EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE AND
COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. BETWEEN MODEL TIMING AND
THERMAL PROFILE DIFFERENCES...NOT AN EASY PRECIP TYPE FORECAST.
TAKING A GENERAL CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS...IT LOOKS LIKE PRECIP
COULD START AS SNOW...SLEET...OR FREEZING RAIN EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
AS SURFACE TEMPS WARM UP...SHOULD SEE MAINLY SNOW/SLEET/RAIN CHANCES
THROUGH LATE MORNING. KEPT A CHANCE OF SNOW ALONG WITH RAIN INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON...SINCE THE LOW LEVEL WARM LAYER IS PRETTY SHALLOW
ON SOUNDINGS. EVEN IF TEMPS GET INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S...STILL LOOKS
COLD ENOUGH ALOFT FOR SNOW. BEST CHANCE FOR PROLONGED SNOW WILL BE
IN THE NORTHEAST WHERE TEMPS ALOFT REMAIN BELOW 0C THE LONGEST.
GIVEN THE EXPECTED SFC TEMPS AND THE TIME OF YEAR...WILL LIKELY
STRUGGLE TO SEE ANY FROZEN STUFF ACCUMULATE ON THE
PAVEMENT...ESPECIALLY BY LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

LOOKS PRETTY QUIET SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
THROUGH. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A SHORTWAVE MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS
ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH THE LOCATION OF THIS SYSTEM. FARTHER
NORTH GFS WOULD BE MILDER AND COMPLETELY DRY...WHILE SOUTHERN ECMWF
AND CANADIAN SUGGEST A COLDER AIRMASS ALONG WITH RAIN/SNOW CHANCES.
WENT WITH LOW POPS FOR RAIN/SNOW FOR NOW GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY.

.TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

SHOULD BE DRY WEATHER UNDER HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY. MODELS STRUGGLING
TO AGREE ON TEMPS THOUGH...WITH ECMWF/CANADIAN HOLDING ONTO A COLDER
AIRMASS...WHILE THE GFS IS QUICKER TO MOVE UPPER RIDGING AND MILDER
TEMPS INTO THE AREA. TEMPS LEANED A BIT TOWARD THE MILDER GFS AS IT
HAS BEEN A MORE CONSISTENT SOLUTION...THOUGH WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN
EYE ON LOWERING TEMPS IF THE ECMWF/CANADIAN SETUP EVENTUALLY LOOKS
MORE LIKELY.

MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT FOR WARMER TEMPS WED/THU. LOOKS LIKE A
TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH BY THURSDAY
MORNING...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST AREA.
BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SEEING A LITTLE
ELEVATED INSTABILITY AS THE COLD FRONT GOES THROUGH...SO MAY HAVE TO
EVENTUALLY CONSIDER ADDING THUNDER TO THE FORECAST.

COOLER TEMPS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR FRIDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH
AND COLD FRONT. THE GFS IS DRY...WHILE THE ECMWF STALLS THE COLD
FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND KEEPS RAIN CHANCES GOING
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. PUT SOME LOW POPS IN THERE FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SCATTERED 3-4
KFT CLOUD DECK AFFECTING KMKE AND KENW THIS AFTERNOON WILL
DISSIPATE BY LATE AFTERNOON...WITH CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. GUSTY
NORTH TO NORTH- NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL EASE THIS EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...

NO CHANGES TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WITH BRISK NORTH TO NORTH-
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS CONTINUING ALONG THE LAKESHORE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THIS...COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE FETCH...WILL KEEP WAVES
HIGH. WINDS WILL EASE THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION...BUT WAVES WILL TAKE A FEW HOURS TO SUBSIDE BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS.

NORTHEASTERLY WINDS SATURDAY MORNING WILL VEER SOUTHERLY BY
AFTERNOON AND INCREASE SUNDAY MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
SURFACE TROUGH. LOWER END GALE FORE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ON
SUNDAY...AND PER COORDINATION WITH GRB/LOT HAVE HOISTED A GALE WATCH
FROM 09Z-21Z.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...GALE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     LMZ643>646.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

TONIGHT/SATURDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...SPM
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...DDV





000
FXUS63 KMKX 272026
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
326 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH

PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX THIS EVENING...ALLOWING GUSTY WINDS TO
SUBSIDE AS SURFACE RIDGING SHIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS CROSSES SOUTHEASTERN WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT...BRINGING COOL
AND QUIET CONDITIONS. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL BE
WEAKENING...AND NEARING NEUTRAL BY MIDNIGHT...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS / AT LEAST AWAY FROM THE LAKESHORE / WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS.

.SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH

HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA...AS UPSTREAM SURFACE
TROUGHING ADVANCES FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WINDS VEER SOUTHERLY ACROSS THE AREA BY
AFTERNOON WITH WARM LOW-LEVEL THERMAL ADVECTION KICKING IN BY
EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME MODERATION IN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
FROM TODAY...WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S FOR MOST
AREAS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG THE LAKESHORE...WHERE A
NORTHEASTERLY WIND COMPONENT WILL PERSIST THROUGH MIDDAY. HIGHS IN
THIS AREA WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE LOWER 30S AS A RESULT.

.SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

EXPECT QUIET WEATHER SATURDAY NIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE.

WIDESPREAD PRECIP IS THEN EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE AND
COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. BETWEEN MODEL TIMING AND
THERMAL PROFILE DIFFERENCES...NOT AN EASY PRECIP TYPE FORECAST.
TAKING A GENERAL CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS...IT LOOKS LIKE PRECIP
COULD START AS SNOW...SLEET...OR FREEZING RAIN EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
AS SURFACE TEMPS WARM UP...SHOULD SEE MAINLY SNOW/SLEET/RAIN CHANCES
THROUGH LATE MORNING. KEPT A CHANCE OF SNOW ALONG WITH RAIN INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON...SINCE THE LOW LEVEL WARM LAYER IS PRETTY SHALLOW
ON SOUNDINGS. EVEN IF TEMPS GET INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S...STILL LOOKS
COLD ENOUGH ALOFT FOR SNOW. BEST CHANCE FOR PROLONGED SNOW WILL BE
IN THE NORTHEAST WHERE TEMPS ALOFT REMAIN BELOW 0C THE LONGEST.
GIVEN THE EXPECTED SFC TEMPS AND THE TIME OF YEAR...WILL LIKELY
STRUGGLE TO SEE ANY FROZEN STUFF ACCUMULATE ON THE
PAVEMENT...ESPECIALLY BY LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

LOOKS PRETTY QUIET SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
THROUGH. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A SHORTWAVE MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS
ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH THE LOCATION OF THIS SYSTEM. FARTHER
NORTH GFS WOULD BE MILDER AND COMPLETELY DRY...WHILE SOUTHERN ECMWF
AND CANADIAN SUGGEST A COLDER AIRMASS ALONG WITH RAIN/SNOW CHANCES.
WENT WITH LOW POPS FOR RAIN/SNOW FOR NOW GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY.

.TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

SHOULD BE DRY WEATHER UNDER HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY. MODELS STRUGGLING
TO AGREE ON TEMPS THOUGH...WITH ECMWF/CANADIAN HOLDING ONTO A COLDER
AIRMASS...WHILE THE GFS IS QUICKER TO MOVE UPPER RIDGING AND MILDER
TEMPS INTO THE AREA. TEMPS LEANED A BIT TOWARD THE MILDER GFS AS IT
HAS BEEN A MORE CONSISTENT SOLUTION...THOUGH WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN
EYE ON LOWERING TEMPS IF THE ECMWF/CANADIAN SETUP EVENTUALLY LOOKS
MORE LIKELY.

MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT FOR WARMER TEMPS WED/THU. LOOKS LIKE A
TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH BY THURSDAY
MORNING...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST AREA.
BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SEEING A LITTLE
ELEVATED INSTABILITY AS THE COLD FRONT GOES THROUGH...SO MAY HAVE TO
EVENTUALLY CONSIDER ADDING THUNDER TO THE FORECAST.

COOLER TEMPS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR FRIDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH
AND COLD FRONT. THE GFS IS DRY...WHILE THE ECMWF STALLS THE COLD
FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND KEEPS RAIN CHANCES GOING
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. PUT SOME LOW POPS IN THERE FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SCATTERED 3-4
KFT CLOUD DECK AFFECTING KMKE AND KENW THIS AFTERNOON WILL
DISSIPATE BY LATE AFTERNOON...WITH CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. GUSTY
NORTH TO NORTH- NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL EASE THIS EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...

NO CHANGES TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WITH BRISK NORTH TO NORTH-
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS CONTINUING ALONG THE LAKESHORE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THIS...COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE FETCH...WILL KEEP WAVES
HIGH. WINDS WILL EASE THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION...BUT WAVES WILL TAKE A FEW HOURS TO SUBSIDE BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS.

NORTHEASTERLY WINDS SATURDAY MORNING WILL VEER SOUTHERLY BY
AFTERNOON AND INCREASE SUNDAY MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
SURFACE TROUGH. LOWER END GALE FORE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ON
SUNDAY...AND PER COORDINATION WITH GRB/LOT HAVE HOISTED A GALE WATCH
FROM 09Z-21Z.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...GALE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     LMZ643>646.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

TONIGHT/SATURDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...SPM
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...DDV





000
FXUS63 KMKX 271600
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1100 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...

SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
SHIFT SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH RIDGE AXIS CROSSING
SOUTHEASTERN WISCONSIN SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW
TO WARM THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
CONTINUING...AND MOST AREAS WILL FAIL TO REACH THE FREEZING MARK.
WITH RIDGE AXIS OVERHEAD...EXPECT ANOTHER COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS
DROPPING INTO THE TEENS. BUMPED UP SKY COVER ACROSS THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON AS MODEL SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS SUGGEST
CONTINUED DIURNAL CU DEVELOPMENT WITHIN A MOIST LAYER BETWEEN 3-4
KFT. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AS THE HIGH
APPROACHES.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SCATTERED 3-4
KFT CLOUD DECK WILL AFFECT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...BEFORE SKIES CLEAR THIS EVENING. GUSTY NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL VEER NORTH-NORTHEAST AT THE EASTERN TAF SITES THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH GUSTS EASING BY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...

NO CHANGES TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS ALONG
WITH FAVORABLE FETCH WILL KEEP WAVES HIGH THROUGH THIS EVENING.
EXPECT WINDS AND WAVES TO EASE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE AREA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

SHORT TERM...

TODAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

LAKE-EFFECT SNOW IN THE FAR SE FROM MILWAUKEE SOUTH...AND FLURRIES
INLAND...SHOULD END BETWEEN 4 AM AND 5 AM AS BACK EDGE OF CURRENT
RADAR RETURNS TRACKING WELL WITH 1000-900MB CONVERGENCE AS DRIER AIR
MOVES IN AND LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES BECOME LESS STEEP. SKIES SHOULD
BE CLEAR EVERYWHERE BY 5 AM EXCEPT NEAR THE LAKE WHICH COULD BE
BRUSHED BY LAKE-EFFECT CLOUDS.

COLD ADVECTION BRINGS -10C TO -12C 925 MB TEMPS ACROSS SRN WI BY 12Z
THOUGH THE COLDEST AIR STAYS TO THE NORTHEAST. A SLIGHT UPWARD
MODIFICATION WILL STILL ONLY YIELD HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S
WITH A BRISK NORTH WIND MAKING FEEL EVEN COLDER IN SPITE OF MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES.

TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER
WILL DROP LOWS INTO THE TEENS EXCEPT FOR RIGHT ALONG THE LAKE WHERE
WEAK ONSHORE WIND WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES AROUND 20.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

POLAR HIGH PRESSURE TO PREVAIL ON SAT BUT WILL MOVE EWD FOR SAT
NT. UPPER RIDGING AND INCREASING SLY WINDS AND WARM ADVECTION WILL
DEVELOP AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NRN PLAINS. PWS
WILL INCREASE TO 0.60 INCHES ON SUN AS THETAE ADVECTION INCREASES
ON A 50 KT LLJ. THE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF A JET STREAK INCLUDING
WARM ADVECTION AT THE JET LEVEL WILL FOCUS OVER THE AREA ALONG
WITH MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND AFOREMENTIONED WARM ADVECTION.
THE DEEP LIFT AND PCPN WILL BE FAST MOVING WITH A QUICK 0.15-0.20
INCHES. A MIXTURE OF RAIN...SLEET...AND SNOW IS POSSIBLE AT THE
ONSET SUN AM BUT THEN GOING TO ALL RAIN AS TEMPS CONTINUE TO WARM.
THE SFC TROUGH PASSAGE WILL SHIFT THE WINDS TO WLY FOR LATER SUN
AFTERNOON INTO MON WITH MILDER TEMPS ARRIVING. FOLLOWED MAINLY
SUPERBLEND TEMPS FOR THIS PERIOD.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
MEDIUM.

A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE FROM THE NRN GREAT PLAINS TO THE
GREAT LAKES BUT THEY DIFFER ON THE EXACT TRACK WITH SOLUTIONS
RANGING ANYWHERE FROM SRN WI/NRN IL TO UPPER MI. THUS ONLY SMALL
CHANCES FOR LGT RAIN. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THEN FOLLOW FOR TUE.
SLY FLOW TO DEVELOP FOR WED AS LOW PRESSURE AND AN UPPER TROUGH
MOVE ALONG THE US AND CANADIAN BORDER. THIS WILL BRING CONTINUED
MILD TEMPS FOR THE WEEK BUT ALSO CHANCES OF RAIN. A WEAK FROPA IS
EXPECTED WED NT FOLLOWED BY WLY FLOW AND A DRIER AIRMASS FOR THU.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...TRACKING BACK EDGE OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES SHOWS THEY WILL CLEAR KMKE AND KUES BY 10Z...AND
KENW BY 12Z WITH VFR/TEMPO MVFR CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT. VFR
CONDITIONS THEN PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST...WITH
ONLY SOME SCATTERED 3-5K FT LAKE CLOUDS AT KMKE AND KENW WITH
DAYTIME INSTABILITY. GUSTY NORTH WINDS EASE TOWARDS EVENING AS
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVER REGION.

 &&

MARINE...NO CHANGE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WITH BRISK NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL KEEP WAVES HIGH. WINDS WILL EASE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BUT WAVES
WILL TAKE A FEW HOURS TO SUBSIDE BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

QUIET SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING TOWARD
SUNDAY MORNING WITH APPROACH OF SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH FROM
LOW THAT CROSSES SOUTHERN ONTARIO INTO WESTERN QUEBEC SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT. GUSTS RIGHT AT THE LOWER THRESHOLD OF GALE FORCE LEVELS
MIDDAY SUNDAY. LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO ASSESS NEED FOR A POSSIBLE
GALE WATCH.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SPM
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...GEHRING
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...REM




000
FXUS63 KMKX 271600
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1100 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...

SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
SHIFT SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH RIDGE AXIS CROSSING
SOUTHEASTERN WISCONSIN SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW
TO WARM THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
CONTINUING...AND MOST AREAS WILL FAIL TO REACH THE FREEZING MARK.
WITH RIDGE AXIS OVERHEAD...EXPECT ANOTHER COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS
DROPPING INTO THE TEENS. BUMPED UP SKY COVER ACROSS THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON AS MODEL SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS SUGGEST
CONTINUED DIURNAL CU DEVELOPMENT WITHIN A MOIST LAYER BETWEEN 3-4
KFT. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AS THE HIGH
APPROACHES.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SCATTERED 3-4
KFT CLOUD DECK WILL AFFECT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...BEFORE SKIES CLEAR THIS EVENING. GUSTY NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL VEER NORTH-NORTHEAST AT THE EASTERN TAF SITES THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH GUSTS EASING BY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...

NO CHANGES TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS ALONG
WITH FAVORABLE FETCH WILL KEEP WAVES HIGH THROUGH THIS EVENING.
EXPECT WINDS AND WAVES TO EASE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE AREA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

SHORT TERM...

TODAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

LAKE-EFFECT SNOW IN THE FAR SE FROM MILWAUKEE SOUTH...AND FLURRIES
INLAND...SHOULD END BETWEEN 4 AM AND 5 AM AS BACK EDGE OF CURRENT
RADAR RETURNS TRACKING WELL WITH 1000-900MB CONVERGENCE AS DRIER AIR
MOVES IN AND LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES BECOME LESS STEEP. SKIES SHOULD
BE CLEAR EVERYWHERE BY 5 AM EXCEPT NEAR THE LAKE WHICH COULD BE
BRUSHED BY LAKE-EFFECT CLOUDS.

COLD ADVECTION BRINGS -10C TO -12C 925 MB TEMPS ACROSS SRN WI BY 12Z
THOUGH THE COLDEST AIR STAYS TO THE NORTHEAST. A SLIGHT UPWARD
MODIFICATION WILL STILL ONLY YIELD HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S
WITH A BRISK NORTH WIND MAKING FEEL EVEN COLDER IN SPITE OF MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES.

TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER
WILL DROP LOWS INTO THE TEENS EXCEPT FOR RIGHT ALONG THE LAKE WHERE
WEAK ONSHORE WIND WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES AROUND 20.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

POLAR HIGH PRESSURE TO PREVAIL ON SAT BUT WILL MOVE EWD FOR SAT
NT. UPPER RIDGING AND INCREASING SLY WINDS AND WARM ADVECTION WILL
DEVELOP AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NRN PLAINS. PWS
WILL INCREASE TO 0.60 INCHES ON SUN AS THETAE ADVECTION INCREASES
ON A 50 KT LLJ. THE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF A JET STREAK INCLUDING
WARM ADVECTION AT THE JET LEVEL WILL FOCUS OVER THE AREA ALONG
WITH MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND AFOREMENTIONED WARM ADVECTION.
THE DEEP LIFT AND PCPN WILL BE FAST MOVING WITH A QUICK 0.15-0.20
INCHES. A MIXTURE OF RAIN...SLEET...AND SNOW IS POSSIBLE AT THE
ONSET SUN AM BUT THEN GOING TO ALL RAIN AS TEMPS CONTINUE TO WARM.
THE SFC TROUGH PASSAGE WILL SHIFT THE WINDS TO WLY FOR LATER SUN
AFTERNOON INTO MON WITH MILDER TEMPS ARRIVING. FOLLOWED MAINLY
SUPERBLEND TEMPS FOR THIS PERIOD.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
MEDIUM.

A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE FROM THE NRN GREAT PLAINS TO THE
GREAT LAKES BUT THEY DIFFER ON THE EXACT TRACK WITH SOLUTIONS
RANGING ANYWHERE FROM SRN WI/NRN IL TO UPPER MI. THUS ONLY SMALL
CHANCES FOR LGT RAIN. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THEN FOLLOW FOR TUE.
SLY FLOW TO DEVELOP FOR WED AS LOW PRESSURE AND AN UPPER TROUGH
MOVE ALONG THE US AND CANADIAN BORDER. THIS WILL BRING CONTINUED
MILD TEMPS FOR THE WEEK BUT ALSO CHANCES OF RAIN. A WEAK FROPA IS
EXPECTED WED NT FOLLOWED BY WLY FLOW AND A DRIER AIRMASS FOR THU.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...TRACKING BACK EDGE OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES SHOWS THEY WILL CLEAR KMKE AND KUES BY 10Z...AND
KENW BY 12Z WITH VFR/TEMPO MVFR CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT. VFR
CONDITIONS THEN PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST...WITH
ONLY SOME SCATTERED 3-5K FT LAKE CLOUDS AT KMKE AND KENW WITH
DAYTIME INSTABILITY. GUSTY NORTH WINDS EASE TOWARDS EVENING AS
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVER REGION.

 &&

MARINE...NO CHANGE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WITH BRISK NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL KEEP WAVES HIGH. WINDS WILL EASE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BUT WAVES
WILL TAKE A FEW HOURS TO SUBSIDE BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

QUIET SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING TOWARD
SUNDAY MORNING WITH APPROACH OF SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH FROM
LOW THAT CROSSES SOUTHERN ONTARIO INTO WESTERN QUEBEC SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT. GUSTS RIGHT AT THE LOWER THRESHOLD OF GALE FORCE LEVELS
MIDDAY SUNDAY. LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO ASSESS NEED FOR A POSSIBLE
GALE WATCH.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SPM
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...GEHRING
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...REM





000
FXUS63 KMKX 270828
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
328 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...

TODAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

LAKE-EFFECT SNOW IN THE FAR SE FROM MILWAUKEE SOUTH...AND FLURRIES
INLAND...SHOULD END BETWEEN 4 AM AND 5 AM AS BACK EDGE OF CURRENT
RADAR RETURNS TRACKING WELL WITH 1000-900MB CONVERGENCE AS DRIER AIR
MOVES IN AND LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES BECOME LESS STEEP. SKIES SHOULD
BE CLEAR EVERYWHERE BY 5 AM EXCEPT NEAR THE LAKE WHICH COULD BE
BRUSHED BY LAKE-EFFECT CLOUDS.

COLD ADVECTION BRINGS -10C TO -12C 925 MB TEMPS ACROSS SRN WI BY 12Z
THOUGH THE COLDEST AIR STAYS TO THE NORTHEAST. A SLIGHT UPWARD
MODIFICATION WILL STILL ONLY YIELD HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S
WITH A BRISK NORTH WIND MAKING FEEL EVEN COLDER IN SPITE OF MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES.

TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER
WILL DROP LOWS INTO THE TEENS EXCEPT FOR RIGHT ALONG THE LAKE WHERE
WEAK ONSHORE WIND WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES AROUND 20.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

POLAR HIGH PRESSURE TO PREVAIL ON SAT BUT WILL MOVE EWD FOR SAT
NT. UPPER RIDGING AND INCREASING SLY WINDS AND WARM ADVECTION WILL
DEVELOP AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NRN PLAINS. PWS
WILL INCREASE TO 0.60 INCHES ON SUN AS THETAE ADVECTION INCREASES
ON A 50 KT LLJ. THE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF A JET STREAK INCLUDING
WARM ADVECTION AT THE JET LEVEL WILL FOCUS OVER THE AREA ALONG
WITH MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND AFOREMENTIONED WARM ADVECTION.
THE DEEP LIFT AND PCPN WILL BE FAST MOVING WITH A QUICK 0.15-0.20
INCHES. A MIXTURE OF RAIN...SLEET...AND SNOW IS POSSIBLE AT THE
ONSET SUN AM BUT THEN GOING TO ALL RAIN AS TEMPS CONTINUE TO WARM.
THE SFC TROUGH PASSAGE WILL SHIFT THE WINDS TO WLY FOR LATER SUN
AFTERNOON INTO MON WITH MILDER TEMPS ARRIVING. FOLLOWED MAINLY
SUPERBLEND TEMPS FOR THIS PERIOD.


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
MEDIUM.

A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE FROM THE NRN GREAT PLAINS TO THE
GREAT LAKES BUT THEY DIFFER ON THE EXACT TRACK WITH SOLUTIONS
RANGING ANYWHERE FROM SRN WI/NRN IL TO UPPER MI. THUS ONLY SMALL
CHANCES FOR LGT RAIN. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THEN FOLLOW FOR TUE.
SLY FLOW TO DEVELOP FOR WED AS LOW PRESSURE AND AN UPPER TROUGH
MOVE ALONG THE US AND CANADIAN BORDER. THIS WILL BRING CONTINUED
MILD TEMPS FOR THE WEEK BUT ALSO CHANCES OF RAIN. A WEAK FROPA IS
EXPECTED WED NT FOLLOWED BY WLY FLOW AND A DRIER AIRMASS FOR THU.


&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...TRACKING BACK EDGE OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES SHOWS THEY WILL CLEAR KMKE AND KUES BY 10Z...AND
KENW BY 12Z WITH VFR/TEMPO MVFR CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT. VFR
CONDITIONS THEN PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST...WITH
ONLY SOME SCATTERED 3-5K FT LAKE CLOUDS AT KMKE AND KENW WITH
DAYTIME INSTABILITY. GUSTY NORTH WINDS EASE TOWARDS EVENING AS
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVER REGION.

 &&

.MARINE...NO CHANGE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WITH BRISK NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL KEEP WAVES HIGH. WINDS WILL EASE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BUT WAVES
WILL TAKE A FEW HOURS TO SUBSIDE BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

QUIET SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING TOWARD
SUNDAY MORNING WITH APPROACH OF SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH FROM
LOW THAT CROSSES SOUTHERN ONTARIO INTO WESTERN QUEBEC SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT. GUSTS RIGHT AT THE LOWER THRESHOLD OF GALE FORCE LEVELS
MIDDAY SUNDAY. LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO ASSESS NEED FOR A POSSIBLE
GALE WATCH.


&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...REM
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...GEHRING




000
FXUS63 KMKX 270828
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
328 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...

TODAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

LAKE-EFFECT SNOW IN THE FAR SE FROM MILWAUKEE SOUTH...AND FLURRIES
INLAND...SHOULD END BETWEEN 4 AM AND 5 AM AS BACK EDGE OF CURRENT
RADAR RETURNS TRACKING WELL WITH 1000-900MB CONVERGENCE AS DRIER AIR
MOVES IN AND LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES BECOME LESS STEEP. SKIES SHOULD
BE CLEAR EVERYWHERE BY 5 AM EXCEPT NEAR THE LAKE WHICH COULD BE
BRUSHED BY LAKE-EFFECT CLOUDS.

COLD ADVECTION BRINGS -10C TO -12C 925 MB TEMPS ACROSS SRN WI BY 12Z
THOUGH THE COLDEST AIR STAYS TO THE NORTHEAST. A SLIGHT UPWARD
MODIFICATION WILL STILL ONLY YIELD HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S
WITH A BRISK NORTH WIND MAKING FEEL EVEN COLDER IN SPITE OF MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES.

TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER
WILL DROP LOWS INTO THE TEENS EXCEPT FOR RIGHT ALONG THE LAKE WHERE
WEAK ONSHORE WIND WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES AROUND 20.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

POLAR HIGH PRESSURE TO PREVAIL ON SAT BUT WILL MOVE EWD FOR SAT
NT. UPPER RIDGING AND INCREASING SLY WINDS AND WARM ADVECTION WILL
DEVELOP AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NRN PLAINS. PWS
WILL INCREASE TO 0.60 INCHES ON SUN AS THETAE ADVECTION INCREASES
ON A 50 KT LLJ. THE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF A JET STREAK INCLUDING
WARM ADVECTION AT THE JET LEVEL WILL FOCUS OVER THE AREA ALONG
WITH MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND AFOREMENTIONED WARM ADVECTION.
THE DEEP LIFT AND PCPN WILL BE FAST MOVING WITH A QUICK 0.15-0.20
INCHES. A MIXTURE OF RAIN...SLEET...AND SNOW IS POSSIBLE AT THE
ONSET SUN AM BUT THEN GOING TO ALL RAIN AS TEMPS CONTINUE TO WARM.
THE SFC TROUGH PASSAGE WILL SHIFT THE WINDS TO WLY FOR LATER SUN
AFTERNOON INTO MON WITH MILDER TEMPS ARRIVING. FOLLOWED MAINLY
SUPERBLEND TEMPS FOR THIS PERIOD.


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
MEDIUM.

A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE FROM THE NRN GREAT PLAINS TO THE
GREAT LAKES BUT THEY DIFFER ON THE EXACT TRACK WITH SOLUTIONS
RANGING ANYWHERE FROM SRN WI/NRN IL TO UPPER MI. THUS ONLY SMALL
CHANCES FOR LGT RAIN. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THEN FOLLOW FOR TUE.
SLY FLOW TO DEVELOP FOR WED AS LOW PRESSURE AND AN UPPER TROUGH
MOVE ALONG THE US AND CANADIAN BORDER. THIS WILL BRING CONTINUED
MILD TEMPS FOR THE WEEK BUT ALSO CHANCES OF RAIN. A WEAK FROPA IS
EXPECTED WED NT FOLLOWED BY WLY FLOW AND A DRIER AIRMASS FOR THU.


&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...TRACKING BACK EDGE OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES SHOWS THEY WILL CLEAR KMKE AND KUES BY 10Z...AND
KENW BY 12Z WITH VFR/TEMPO MVFR CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT. VFR
CONDITIONS THEN PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST...WITH
ONLY SOME SCATTERED 3-5K FT LAKE CLOUDS AT KMKE AND KENW WITH
DAYTIME INSTABILITY. GUSTY NORTH WINDS EASE TOWARDS EVENING AS
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVER REGION.

 &&

.MARINE...NO CHANGE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WITH BRISK NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL KEEP WAVES HIGH. WINDS WILL EASE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BUT WAVES
WILL TAKE A FEW HOURS TO SUBSIDE BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

QUIET SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING TOWARD
SUNDAY MORNING WITH APPROACH OF SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH FROM
LOW THAT CROSSES SOUTHERN ONTARIO INTO WESTERN QUEBEC SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT. GUSTS RIGHT AT THE LOWER THRESHOLD OF GALE FORCE LEVELS
MIDDAY SUNDAY. LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO ASSESS NEED FOR A POSSIBLE
GALE WATCH.


&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...REM
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...GEHRING





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