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000
FXUS63 KMKX 250241
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
941 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

.UPDATE...

BACK EDGE OF RAIN SHOWERS HAS CLEARED LA CROSSE AND PRAIRIE DU
CHIEN AND IS TRACKING ALONG JUST BEHIND AXIS OF SURFACE TROUGH
AND ON LEADING EDGE OF SUBSIDENCE BEHIND 700 MB WAVE. LAST SURGE
OF PCPN IN DEFORMATION ZONE AROUND SURFACE LOW IN WESTERN ILLINOIS
IS LIFTING UP INTO NW IL/SW WI AND WILL CROSS SRN WI DURING THE
LATE EVENING/EARLY POST MIDNIGHT HOURS.

CURRENT TIMING HAS THE BACK EDGE ROUGHLY ALONG A BERLIN...MADISON
TO MONROE LINE AROUND 1 AM...REACHING SHEBOYGAN...WEST BEND AND
LAKE GENEVA BETWEEN 3 AM AND 330 AM...MILWAUKEE TO SALEM AROUND 4
AM AND CLEARING THE FAR SOUTHEAST BY 5 AM.

ALSO ADDED SOME AREAS OF FOG IN THE LOW-LYING AREAS AND RIVER
VALLEYS. REST OF FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...

WATCHING SCT IFR CIGS/VSBYS TO THE WEST TO SEE IF THEY ARE JUST
LOCAL TO THE MS RVR/WI RVR VALLEYS OR AN INDICATION OF A POTENTIAL
FOR LOWER THAN MVFR STRATUS CIGS BEHIND INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH.
HAVE ADDED AREAS OF FOG TO USUAL LOW-LYING AREAS IN SRN WI...BUT
WILL KEEP AN EYE ON TRENDS AS 21Z SREF PROBABILITY OF VSBYS LESS
THAN 3 MILES RISES TO 40 PCT FOR A TIME BEHIND THE BACK EDGE OF
THE DEPARTING PCPN. LATEST 00Z/25 NAM VSBY PROG ONLY HAS SPOTTY
DENSE FOG OVER NRN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND NOT AT ANY
OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH 12Z.

&&

.MARINE...

WHILE GUSTS ARE LOWERING BELOW CRITERIA IN SOUTHERN ZONES...AND
RIGHT AROUND CRITERIA IN THE NORTH...IT WILL STILL TAKE SOME TIME
FOR WAVES TO SUBSIDE SO WILL KEEP CURRENT END TIMES FOR SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY. WEST WINDS PICK UP AGAIN LATE FRIDAY MORNING
BELOW NORTHERN SURFACE LOW AS IT TRACKS TRACKING FROM THE U.P. OF
MICHIGAN TO NRN LOWER MICHIGAN. SOME GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS
EXPECTED...BUT LOOKS MARGINAL. WILL LET NEXT SHIFT ASSESS FULL
00Z DATA SET.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014/

SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH

TWO DISTINCT HEIGHT FALL CENTERS AT 500 MB SHOWN TONIGHT.  ONE WITH
CLOSED LOW MOVES INTO LAKE SUPERIOR WITH 12 HOUR FALLS OF 140
METERS. THE OTHER GOES UP OHIO RIVER VALLEY NEAR LOUISVILLE WITH
110 METER FALLS.

DESPITE A SPLIT IN THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS...STRONG UPWARD MOTION
SHOWN OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN IN RAP/NAM/GFS...MAXIMIZING IN THE
SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AREA AROUND 03Z AND IN THE FAR EAST AROUND
06Z. ALREADY PLENTY OF RAIN OVER ALL BUT FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES NOW
AND THAT SHOULD GRADUALLY PUSH EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LOOKS LIKE DEFORMATION ZONE FORMING OVER SOUTHERN IOWA ON NORTH EDGE
OF SOUTHERN VORTICITY MAXIMUM WILL CLIP THE SOUTHEAST LATER TONIGHT
WHICH SHOULD KEEP PRECIPITATION LINGERING A LITTLE LONGER THERE.

FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH

STRONG DRYING THAT KICKS IN LATE TONIGHT CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY.
OTHER THAN SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS MAY BE TOTALLY SUNNY AND HEIGHTS DO
RISE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

LOW PRESSURE AND THE ACCOMPANIED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES FRI NT WITH THE TRAILING COLD
FRONT MOVING SWD ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
TO THEN PREVAIL ON SAT WITH COOL ENELY WINDS.

STRONG CYCLOGENESIS AND OCCLUSION WILL OCCUR OVER ERN CO ON SAT
INTO SAT NT AS A LARGE POLAR TROUGH MOVES FROM THE DESERT SW TO
ERN CO. THE LARGE OCCLUDED SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT
PLAINS BY 00Z MON. SRN WI WILL BE ON THE ERN PERIPHERY OF
WARM...MOIST ADVECTION ALOFT STARTING LATE SAT NT AND INTO SUNDAY.
CHANCES OF SHOWERS ARE FORECAST. ELY WINDS AND CLOUDS WILL KEEP
TEMPS COOL.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
MEDIUM

THE LARGE OCCLUDED SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY MOVE ENEWD INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. MODELS DIFFER ON
PLACEMENT...TIMING...AND EVOLUTION BUT OVERALL PERIODS OF RAIN AND
COOL TEMPS LOOK LIKELY.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

EXPECT LIGHT RAIN TO EVENTUALLY MOISTEN THE LOW LEVELS ENOUGH FOR
MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES INTO THIS EVENING KMSN AND UNTIL
ABOUT MIDNIGHT IN THE SOUTHEAST WI TAF SITES.

ABRUPT CLEARING LATE TONIGHT AND WINDS TURNING LIGHT MAY RESULT IN
FOG FORMATION BUT PROBABILITY IS LOW ENOUGH THAT WILL LEAVE OUT OF
THE TAFS FOR NOW.

MARINE...

BRISK SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL SUBSIDE EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT WAVES
SHOULD TAKE MOST OF THE EVENING TO SUBSIDE.  THE WAVES WILL REMAIN
HIGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT IN THE SHEBOYGAN AREA.  EXTENDED THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY TO 06Z SOUTHERN THREE ZONES AND TO 12Z IN SHEBOYGAN
ZONE.  THOUGHT ABOUT EXTENDING IT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...BUT LOOKS
LIKE ENOUGH LULL IN THE WINDS AND WAVES LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING TO KEEP THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES SEPARATE.

STRONG WEST WINDS WILL REACH SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA AGAIN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF GUSTY EAST WINDS AND HIGH WAVES IS LIKELY
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...TURNING TO THE NORTH TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR LMZ644>646.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR LMZ643.

&&

$$

UPDATE...REM
TONIGHT/FRIDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...CRAVEN
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...GEHRING





000
FXUS63 KMKX 242043
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
343 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH

TWO DISTINCT HEIGHT FALL CENTERS AT 500 MB SHOWN TONIGHT.  ONE WITH
CLOSED LOW MOVES INTO LAKE SUPERIOR WITH 12 HOUR FALLS OF 140
METERS. THE OTHER GOES UP OHIO RIVER VALLEY NEAR LOUISVILLE WITH
110 METER FALLS.

DESPITE A SPLIT IN THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS...STRONG UPWARD MOTION
SHOWN OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN IN RAP/NAM/GFS...MAXIMIZING IN THE
SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AREA AROUND 03Z AND IN THE FAR EAST AROUND
06Z. ALREADY PLENTY OF RAIN OVER ALL BUT FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES NOW
AND THAT SHOULD GRADUALLY PUSH EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LOOKS LIKE DEFORMATION ZONE FORMING OVER SOUTHERN IOWA ON NORTH EDGE
OF SOUTHERN VORTICITY MAXIMUM WILL CLIP THE SOUTHEAST LATER TONIGHT
WHICH SHOULD KEEP PRECIPITATION LINGERING A LITTLE LONGER THERE.

FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH

STRONG DRYING THAT KICKS IN LATE TONIGHT CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY.
OTHER THAN SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS MAY BE TOTALLY SUNNY AND HEIGHTS DO
RISE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

LOW PRESSURE AND THE ACCOMPANIED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES FRI NT WITH THE TRAILING COLD
FRONT MOVING SWD ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
TO THEN PREVAIL ON SAT WITH COOL ENELY WINDS.

STRONG CYCLOGENESIS AND OCCLUSION WILL OCCUR OVER ERN CO ON SAT
INTO SAT NT AS A LARGE POLAR TROUGH MOVES FROM THE DESERT SW TO
ERN CO. THE LARGE OCCLUDED SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT
PLAINS BY 00Z MON. SRN WI WILL BE ON THE ERN PERIPHERY OF
WARM...MOIST ADVECTION ALOFT STARTING LATE SAT NT AND INTO SUNDAY.
CHANCES OF SHOWERS ARE FORECAST. ELY WINDS AND CLOUDS WILL KEEP
TEMPS COOL.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
MEDIUM

THE LARGE OCCLUDED SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY MOVE ENEWD INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. MODELS DIFFER ON
PLACEMENT...TIMING...AND EVOLUTION BUT OVERALL PERIODS OF RAIN AND
COOL TEMPS LOOK LIKELY.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

EXPECT LIGHT RAIN TO EVENTUALLY MOISTEN THE LOW LEVELS ENOUGH FOR
MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES INTO THIS EVENING KMSN AND UNTIL
ABOUT MIDNIGHT IN THE SOUTHEAST WI TAF SITES.

ABRUPT CLEARING LATE TONIGHT AND WINDS TURNING LIGHT MAY RESULT IN
FOG FORMATION BUT PROBABILITY IS LOW ENOUGH THAT WILL LEAVE OUT OF
THE TAFS FOR NOW.

&&

.MARINE...

BRISK SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL SUBSIDE EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT WAVES
SHOULD TAKE MOST OF THE EVENING TO SUBSIDE.  THE WAVES WILL REMAIN
HIGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT IN THE SHEBOYGAN AREA.  EXTENDED THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY TO 06Z SOUTHERN THREE ZONES AND TO 12Z IN SHEBOYGAN
ZONE.  THOUGHT ABOUT EXTENDING IT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...BUT LOOKS
LIKE ENOUGH LULL IN THE WINDS AND WAVES LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING TO KEEP THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES SEPARATE.

STRONG WEST WINDS WILL REACH SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA AGAIN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF GUSTY EAST WINDS AND HIGH WAVES IS LIKELY
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...TURNING TO THE NORTH TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.


&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR LMZ644>646.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR LMZ643.

&&

$$

TONIGHT/FRIDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...CRAVEN
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...GEHRING





000
FXUS63 KMKX 240829
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
329 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

A RATHER STRONG 250 MB TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE PLAINS EARLY
THIS MORNING AND REACHES THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS
EVENING. THE TROUGH SPLITS INTO A NORTHERN TROUGH THAT MOVES
ACROSS THE LAKE SUPERIOR AREA TONIGHT AND A SECOND TROUGH THAT
MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THE STRONGER SPEED MAX IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN SHORTWAVE...WITH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE NORTHERN SPEED MAX...AND CLOSE
TO THE EXIT REGION OF THE WEAK SOUTHERN SPEED MAX. UPPER
DIVERGENCE OCCURS THROUGH TODAY AND SPLITS INTO TWO AREAS
TONIGHT...WITH MODERATE DIVERGENCE ACROSS THE SOUTH AROUND
MIDNIGHT.

WEAK 700 MB WARM AIR ADVECTION TODAY WITH COOLING TONIGHT BEHIND
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. ONE AREA OF MODERATE 700 MB UPWARD
MOTION LIFTS NORTH THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE 700 MB UPWARD MOTION IS
FAIRLY WEAK UNTIL IT INCREASES DURING THE LATER AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH DOWNWARD MOTION LATE TONIGHT. 700 MB LAYER IS
SATURATED EARLY...BUT SOME DRYING OCCURS IN THE SOUTHEAST LATER
THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON...BEFORE A BAND OF SATURATION
MOVES EAST THIS EVENING. THEN STRONG DRYING OCCURS FROM THE WEST.
LATE TONIGHT.

A 50 KNOT 700 MB SPEED MAX LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS WISCONSIN LATER
THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON...WITH THE SPEED MAX FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE. THE MAIN 850 MB 53 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET
MOVES ACROSS WISCONSIN TODAY AS THE JET MAX PUSHES NORTH.

IN GENERAL THE SURFACE TROUGH PASSES FROM WEST TO EAST...BUT BY
EVENING ONE LOW MOVES ACROSS ILLINOIS/INDIANA WITH THEN SOUTHERN
SHORTWAVE AND A SECOND LOW MOVES INTO THE LAKE SUPERIOR REGION. AS
A RESULT SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN DOES NOT GET INTO A TRUE WARM
SECTOR...BUT SOME HEATING DOES OCCUR WITH THE BRIEF DRYING BELOW
800 MB. HELICITY INCREASES TO 425...BUT CAPE IS LIMITED TO AROUND
50 JOULES/KM AND IS ELEVATED...SO THERE IS LIKELY SOME THUNDER
POTENTIAL.

EXPECT THE EARLY MORNING PRECIPITATION TO LIFT NORTH AND LIKELY
END IN THE FAR SOUTH AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST BEFORE THE
PRECIPITATION WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST THIS AFTERNOON OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND OVER THE EAST
THIS EVENING. PRECIPITATION SHOULD END BY MIDNIGHT OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.SHORT TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS MEDIUM.

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION FRIDAY...WITH THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE DELAYED UNTIL AFTER 00Z SATURDAY. DRY AIR MOVING
INTO THE REGION SHOULD BRING A QUIET WEATHER DAY. REMOVED LIGHT
POPS DURING THE AFTERNOON...AS AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM
NAM/GFS ARE SHOWING LESS MOISTURE THAN IN PREVIOUS MODEL
RUNS...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION.

925 MB TEMPERATURE FIELDS SUGGEST HIGHS SHOULD REACH INTO THE 60S
ACROSS THE AREA...WITH MID TO UPPER 60S IN SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA. BREEZY WEST WINDS SHOULD NEGATE ANY LAKE BREEZE
FORMATION.

COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING...WITH
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION LATER FRIDAY NIGHT IN ITS WAKE. NAM
SHOWING QPF WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS RESPONSE FIELDS
ACROSS THE AREA LATER FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN
MODELS HAVING LIGHT QPF IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES. THE GFS IS DRY.

NAM SOUNDINGS HAVE MORE MOISTURE IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS THAN THE
GFS DURING THIS TIME. NAM SEEMS OVERDONE SOMEWHAT WITH THE
FRONTOGENESIS. FOR NOW...WILL ADD LOW POPS FOR LIGHT RAIN FRIDAY
NIGHT. MAY END UP DRY FOR THIS PERIOD IF MOISTURE AND
FRONTOGENESIS DO NOT MATERIALIZE. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL DIP INTO
THE MID 30S NORTH TO AROUND 40 SOUTH.

SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY...WITH ONSHORE WINDS KEEPING CHILLY
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN...TO MID 50S IN SOUTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

LOW PRESSURE UNDERGOES CYCLOGENESIS IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS
SATURDAY NIGHT. WARM AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THIS TIME...WITH AN SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY 850 MB LOW
LEVEL JET HELPING BRING MORE MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THIS SHOULD
BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN INTO THE AREA...AS AIR COLUMN MOISTENS UP.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH FEATURES. LOW
PRESSURE SLOWLY WEAKENS AS IT SHIFTS EAST SOUTHEAST FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS AREA SUNDAY
INTO TUESDAY...WITH A CUTOFF 500 MB LOW SLOWLY SHIFTING INTO THE
REGION. GFS SOMEWHAT FURTHER NORTH WITH THE 500 MB LOW THAN THE
ECMWF. THIS BRINGS QPF THROUGH THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD...ON
THE COOL SIDE OF THE LOW.

THE 500 MB LOW THEN ABSORBS ANOTHER 500 MB LOW RETROGRADING INTO
THE REGION FROM NORTHEASTERN CANADA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...SLOWING DOWN THE SURFACE LOW TRACK. THIS KEEPS MORE
QPF ACROSS THE AREA. FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE TO USE CONSENSUS POPS
AND TEMPERATURES FOR THIS PERIOD. LOOKS TO BE COOL AND WET...WITH
A GOOD 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE OVER A LONG DURATION.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

CONTINUE TO SEE VFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH THE LIGHT RAIN WITH INITIAL
BAND OF RAIN CROSSING SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. FAR SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN WILL LIKELY SEE THE RAIN. THEN AS A SURFACE
TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WILL BRING IN MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH STEADIER SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON SOUTH CENTRAL AND
OVER THE EAST THIS EVENING WITH SOME IFR POTENTIAL. SOME CLEARING
ESPECIALLY WEST OF MADISON LATE TONIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...

GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS LOOK TO DEVELOP BY MID-MORNING AND CONTINUE
UNTIL BAGGY GRADIENT AROUND SURFACE LOW REACHES THE NEARSHORE
WATERS AROUND MID-EVENING.

STRONG WEST WINDS WILL REACH SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA SATURDAY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WOOD





000
FXUS63 KMKX 240230 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
930 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.UPDATE...

BAND OF LIGHT RAIN...IN ZONE OF BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT ON 300K
SFC...CROSSING SRN WI IS PRODUCING RAINFALL AMOUNTS UNDER 0.10
INCH. LOOKS TO BE POCKETS OF GRAUPEL/MELTING GRAUPEL/PRODUCING THE
50 DBZ REFLECTIVITIES OVER SRN SAUK/NRN IOWA AND WRN MONROE
COUNTIES PER DUAL POL RADAR PRODUCTS.

WILL ADJUST WX/POP GRIDS FOR DISTINCT BACK EDGE TO THIS INITIAL
BAND. LATEST NAM AGREES WITH HI-RES/RAPID UPDATE MODELS IN
BRINGING THE NEXT ROUND OF RAIN SHOWERS INTO SRN WI OVERNIGHT WITH
CONVERGENCE ALONG 850 MB BAROCLINIC ZONE...CURRENTLY HIGHLIGHTED
BY WEST/EAST ORIENTED SHOWER BAND ACROSS CENTRAL IA INTO CENTRAL
IL ON AREA RADAR MOSAICS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES BETWEEN 09Z AND
12Z.

ALSO ADJUSTED POPS DOWNWARD IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST FOR THURSDAY
MORNING AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW NRN EDGE OF A DRY PUNCH PUSHING
INTO THE FAR SOUTHEAST AROUND 15Z. PREVIOUS FORECAST ACCOUNTED FOR
THIS WITH REDUCED POPS OVER MOST OF THE REST OF THE CWA AND THOSE
WERE KEPT.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...

CONTINUE TO SEE VFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH THE VERY LIGHT RAIN WITH
INITAL BAND OF RAIN CROSSING SRN WI. WILL HOLD ONTO PREVAILING VFR
CONDITIONS WITH ONLY TEMPO MVFR VSBYS WITH THE BRIEFLY HEAVIER
RAIN THROUGH MID-OVERNIGHT HOURS THEN BRING IN MVFR CONDITIONS
WITH STEADIER SHOWERS. WILL LOOK TO RAISE BACK TO VFR...
ESPECIALLY AT EASTERN TAF SITES BY MID-MORNING THURSDAY UNTIL PCPN
WITH WITH LOW MOVES IN LATER IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING THURSDAY.
LOOKING AT GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS DEVELOPING TURSDAY MORNING AHEAD
OF LOW...EASING THURSDAY EVENING WITH BAGGY GRADIENT WITH LOW.

&&

.MARINE...

NO CHANGES TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THIS NSH ISSUANCE. GUSTY
SOUTHEAST WINDS LOOK TO DEVELOP BY MID-MORNING THURSDAY AND
CONTINUE UNTIL BAGGY GRADIENT AROUND SURFACE LOW REACHES THE
NEARSHORE WATERS AROUND MID-EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

TONIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS THE CWA. LOW LEVEL JET AXIS
SHIFTS EASTWARD TOWARDS WRN WI. GREATEST MOISTURE SURGE THERE.
ALL MODELS SHOW A WING OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT EXTENDING SEWD INTO
SRN WI FROM THE MAIN CONVECTIVE AREA FROM IA THROUGH SRN MN INTO
WC WI. SO WILL STICK WITH THE IDEA OF GRADUALLY EXPANDING POPS
ACRS SRN WI AS THE NIGHT GOES ON.

THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...HIGH
MODELS AGREE ON TAKING SFC LOW PRES FROM IA INTO WC IL BY 00Z.
MEANWHILE 850 LOW LIFTS INTO NW WI. MOISTURE WILL BE TRANSPORTED
NORTHWARD WITH A NEARLY DUE SOUTH 40 KNOT 850 JET. PRIMARY SHORTWAVES
OF NOTE WILL BE MOVING INTO MN AND MO. HOWEVER DECENT JET
STRUCTURE IN PLACE WITH EVEN A HINT OF SOME COUPLING SO PLENTY OF
UPPER DIVERGENCE IN PLACE. SOME HINT OF A BREAK IN THE SE AFTER
OVERNIGHT WAA MOVES THROUGH WITH THE WESTERN CWA SEEING LESS OF A
BREAK AS NEXT FRONTAL INDUCED PRECIP MOVES IN QUICKLY ON THE HEELS
OF THE WAA. INSTABILITY LACKING. SOME ELEVATED CAPE NOTED ON THE
SOUNDINGS SO SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER A POSSIBILITY.

THURSDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO SLIDE BY JUST TO THE SOUTH
THURSDAY EVENING...WHILE A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA. PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING...SO
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED. NOT REALLY SEEING MUCH
INSTABILITY...SO DROPPED THE THUNDER CHANCES.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

LOW PRESSURE TO THE EAST FRIDAY WILL MOVE OUT...ALLOWING HIGH
PRESSURE TO SLIDE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. LOOKS MAINLY
DRY FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THOUGH WITH BAROCLINIC ZONE SETUP
RIGHT IN THE AREA...COULD SEE A WEAK WAVE OR TWO BRING A LITTLE
PRECIP. MOST MODELS ARE PAINTING OUT A LITTLE QPF AT
TIMES...THOUGH NOT VERY GOOD TIMING AGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL RAIN CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS A LARGE UPPER LOW
SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THE ECMWF REMAINS COLD ENOUGH TO
SUGGEST A FEW SNOW FLAKES WOULD EVEN BE POSSIBLE AT SOME
POINT...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN SNOW TOO LOW TO PUT IN THE FORECAST
FOR NOW. ADDITIONALLY...BREEZY EAST WINDS ARE POSSIBLE AT
TIMES...MAKING THINGS EVEN MORE UNPLEASANT NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...MID/HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING INTO WRN WI ASSOC
WITH WAA. STEADIER RAIN SHIFTING EWD FROM IA WITH DVLPG BAND ACRS NW
AND WC WI. SATURATION WILL BE A SLOW PROCESS INTO THIS EVENING. NO
IMPACT ON TAF SITES JUST A GRADUAL THICKENING OF A HIGH BASED VFR
BLANKET. TNGT/ERLY WED EXPECTING ISENTROPIC FORCING TO LEAD TO
BETTER SATURATION AND SHRA DEVELOPMENT. AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES
AND ACTUALLY MOVES SOUTH OF WI ON THURSDAY RAIN WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD WITH A GREATER LIKELIHOOD OF LOWERED CIGS/VSBYS.
DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP AHEAD OF TROUGH AXIS SO
EXPECTING SE WINDS TO RAMP UP FOR A TIME ON THURSDAY. ELEVATED
CAPE SUGGESTS ISOLATED/SLGT CHC THUNDER BUT NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH
FOR TAF INCLUSION.

MARINE...SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BE INCREASING ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE. THIS WILL RESULT IN ONSHORE WINDS REACHING
ADVISORY CRITERIA. WAVES WILL BUILD IN RESPONSE TO THE HIGHER WINDS
AND REASONABLY GOOD FETCH.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR
     LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...REM
TONIGHT/THURSDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...COLLAR
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DDV





000
FXUS63 KMKX 232014
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
314 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.TONIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS THE CWA. LOW LEVEL JET AXIS
SHIFTS EASTWARD TOWARDS WRN WI. GREATEST MOISTURE SURGE THERE.
ALL MODELS SHOW A WING OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT EXTENDING SEWD INTO
SRN WI FROM THE MAIN CONVECTIVE AREA FROM IA THROUGH SRN MN INTO
WC WI. SO WILL STICK WITH THE IDEA OF GRADUALLY EXPANDING POPS
ACRS SRN WI AS THE NIGHT GOES ON.

.THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...HIGH
MODELS AGREE ON TAKING SFC LOW PRES FROM IA INTO WC IL BY 00Z.
MEANWHILE 850 LOW LIFTS INTO NW WI. MOISTURE WILL BE TRANSPORTED
NORTHWARD WITH A NEARLY DUE SOUTH 40 KNOT 850 JET. PRIMARY SHORTWAVES
OF NOTE WILL BE MOVING INTO MN AND MO. HOWEVER DECENT JET
STRUCTURE IN PLACE WITH EVEN A HINT OF SOME COUPLING SO PLENTY OF
UPPER DIVERGENCE IN PLACE. SOME HINT OF A BREAK IN THE SE AFTER
OVERNIGHT WAA MOVES THROUGH WITH THE WESTERN CWA SEEING LESS OF A
BREAK AS NEXT FRONTAL INDUCED PRECIP MOVES IN QUICKLY ON THE HEELS
OF THE WAA. INSTABILITY LACKING. SOME ELEVATED CAPE NOTED ON THE
SOUNDINGS SO SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER A POSSIBILITY.

.THURSDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO SLIDE BY JUST TO THE SOUTH
THURSDAY EVENING...WHILE A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA. PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING...SO
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED. NOT REALLY SEEING MUCH
INSTABILITY...SO DROPPED THE THUNDER CHANCES.

.FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

LOW PRESSURE TO THE EAST FRIDAY WILL MOVE OUT...ALLOWING HIGH
PRESSURE TO SLIDE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. LOOKS MAINLY
DRY FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THOUGH WITH BAROCLINIC ZONE SETUP
RIGHT IN THE AREA...COULD SEE A WEAK WAVE OR TWO BRING A LITTLE
PRECIP. MOST MODELS ARE PAINTING OUT A LITTLE QPF AT
TIMES...THOUGH NOT VERY GOOD TIMING AGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS.

.SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL RAIN CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS A LARGE UPPER LOW
SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THE ECMWF REMAINS COLD ENOUGH TO
SUGGEST A FEW SNOW FLAKES WOULD EVEN BE POSSIBLE AT SOME
POINT...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN SNOW TOO LOW TO PUT IN THE FORECAST
FOR NOW. ADDITIONALLY...BREEZY EAST WINDS ARE POSSIBLE AT
TIMES...MAKING THINGS EVEN MORE UNPLEASANT NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...MID/HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING INTO WRN WI ASSOC
WITH WAA. STEADIER RAIN SHIFTING EWD FROM IA WITH DVLPG BAND ACRS NW
AND WC WI. SATURATION WILL BE A SLOW PROCESS INTO THIS EVENING. NO
IMPACT ON TAF SITES JUST A GRADUAL THICKENING OF A HIGH BASED VFR
BLANKET. TNGT/ERLY WED EXPECTING ISENTROPIC FORCING TO LEAD TO
BETTER SATURATION AND SHRA DEVELOPMENT. AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES
AND ACTUALLY MOVES SOUTH OF WI ON THURSDAY RAIN WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD WITH A GREATER LIKELIHOOD OF LOWERED CIGS/VSBYS.
DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP AHEAD OF TROUGH AXIS SO
EXPECTING SE WINDS TO RAMP UP FOR A TIME ON THURSDAY. ELEVATED
CAPE SUGGESTS ISOLATED/SLGT CHC THUNDER BUT NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH
FOR TAF INCLUSION.

&&

.MARINE...SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BE INCREASING ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE. THIS WILL RESULT IN ONSHORE WINDS REACHING
ADVISORY CRITERIA. WAVES WILL BUILD IN RESPONSE TO THE HIGHER WINDS
AND REASONABLY GOOD FETCH.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR
     LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

TONIGHT/THURSDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...COLLAR
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DDV





000
FXUS63 KMKX 231537
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1037 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...MID/HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING INTO WRN WI
ASSOC WITH WAA. MUCH OF THE RETURNS ACRS WRN WI LIKELY JUST
RETURNS ALOFT. SATURATION WILL BE A SLOW PROCESS BUT STILL
THINK SOME SHARA LIKELY BEFORE DAYS END IN THE WRN CWA. NO
IMPACT ON TAF SITES JUST A GRADUAL THICKENING OF A HIGH BASED
VFR BLANKET. TNGT/ERLY WED EXPECTING ISENTROPIC FORCING TO LEAD
TO BETTER SATURATION AND SHRA DEVELOPMENT. AS LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES AND ACTUALLY MOVES SOUTH OF WI ON THURSDAY RAIN WILL
BECOME MORE WIDEPSREAD WITH A GREATER LIKELIHOOD OF LOWERED
CIGS/VSBYS. DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP AHEAD OF TROUGH AXIS
SO EXPPECTING SE WINDS TO RAMP UP FOR A TIME ON THURSDAY. ELEVATED
CAPE SUGGESTS KEEPING ISOLATED/SLGT CHC THUNDER.

PC

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

250 MB NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THIS
MORNING BEFORE THE UPPER RIDGE REACHES THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY
EVENING. THE RIDGE WEAKENS AS IT ENTERS WISCONSIN TONIGHT. MAINLY
UPPER DIVERGENCE OCCURS TODAY AND TONIGHT...INCREASING OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN TOWARDS SUNRISE THURSDAY.

WEAK 700 MB WARM AIR ADVECTION TODAY AND THIS EVENING...THEN
INCREASES LATE TONIGHT. 700 MB UPWARD MOTION IS WEAK BEFORE IT
INCREASES WEST OF MADISON TOWARD EVENING. 700 MB UPWARD MOTION
CONTINUES OVERNIGHT AS IT SPREADS EAST. NAM TAKES A 55 KNOT SPEED
MAX ACROSS SOUTHWEST IOWA TOWARD NOON...AND INTO THE IOWA/ILLINOIS
BORDER AREA TOWARDS EVENING...BEFORE WEAKENING IT AS IT CROSSES
NORTHERN ILLINOIS TONIGHT. THIS RESULTS IN FAIRLY STRONG 700 MB
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN
ILLINOIS EARLY THIS EVENING. THE MAIN 850 MB LOW LEVEL JET REMAINS
ACROSS IOWA AND MINNESOTA THIS EVENING...SLOWLY REACHING THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER AREA LATE TONIGHT.

700 MB RH INCREASES OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS
AFTERNOON...SATURATING WEST OF MADISON BY EVENING. SATURATION THEN
OCCURS ACROSS ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.

THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE ACROSS FAR EASTERN WISCONSIN AT
SUNRISE...AND BE SLOW TO PUSH EAST...AND WILL STILL BE NEAR LAKE
MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE COOL LAKES. MEANWHILE SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE WEST OF MADISON LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...AND ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TONIGHT AS THE
TROUGH APPROACHES WISCONSIN.

EXPECT A DRY DAY TODAY...EXCEPT POSSIBLY WEST OF MADISON TOWARD
LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING...BEFORE RAIN OVERSPREADS THE AREA TONIGHT.
WEAK MID LEVEL CAPE OF ONLY 16 JOULES/KG LATE TONIGHT...SO WILL
NOT MENTION ANY THUNDER.

SHORT TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS MEDIUM.

HIGH POPS WILL CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY ACROSS THE AREA...AS STRONG
AND FOCUSED WARM AIR ADVECTION FED BY 850 MB LOW LEVEL JET SHIFTS
THROUGH THE AREA. NAM/GFS/CANADIAN MODELS TAKE SURFACE LOW
NORTHEAST ACROSS WISCONSIN ON THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH
THE ECMWF KEEPING THE LOW TRACK DUE EAST ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS.
COULD SEE THE ECMWF SOLUTION WORK OUT...AS THESE LOWS OFTEN TAKE
THAT TRACK WITH THE COOL ONSHORE FLOW REINFORCING THE COOL AIR
OVER THE AREA. THIS WOULD KEEP THE WARM SECTOR AIRMASS TO THE
SOUTH AS WELL.

FOR NOW...WENT WITH A CONSENSUS BLEND OF THE MODELS WITH THE LOW
TRACK. PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER IN THE EAST THURSDAY EVENING...AS
THE 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA. PRECIPITATION SHOULD END LATER THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE AREA. ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS...AS ELEVATED CAPES ARE VERY WEAK. USED
CONSENSUS BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES...GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES WITH THE
LOW TRACK AND WARM SECTOR PLACEMENT BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND
NAM/GFS/CANADIAN MODELS.

COLD FRONT DOES NOT PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA UNTIL LATER ON
FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD COMBINE WITH GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO
BRING A MILD DAY TO THE AREA. AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME
WEAK MID LEVEL INSTABILITY WITH STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. SOME MOISTURE IN THAT AREA TO WORK WITH...THOUGH MODELS
DISAGREE WITH 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM PATH THROUGH THE REGION.
KEPT SMALL POPS FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR SHOWERS.

COLD AIR ADVECTION FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BRING QUIET WEATHER BUT
COOL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

ECMWF AND GFS ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH QPF WITH THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THEY KEEP THE AREA ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE
LOW...WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF QPF MOVING THROUGH THE AREA...MAINLY
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES WITH THE 500 MB
LOW TRACK...THOUGH THEY DO SHOW A CUTOFF LOW MOVING SLOWLY
EASTWARD.

FOR NOW...USED CONSENSUS POPS AND TEMPERATURES FOR THIS PERIOD.
QPF AMOUNTS COULD BE IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE EASILY IF THIS
SCENARIO WORKS OUT...WHICH MAY AGGRAVATE AREA RIVERS ONCE AGAIN.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. EXPECT
AN INCREASE IN HIGH...THEN MID LEVEL CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON AS A
TROUGH APPROACHES WISCONSIN TONIGHT.

IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO OVERCOME DRY AIR BELOW 700 MB...WITH
THE LATEST NAM KEEPING RAIN WEST OF KMSN THROUGH 00Z AND OUT OF
EASTERN TAF SITES THROUGH 06Z WED.

MAINLY VFR CIGS/VSBYS EARLY TONIGHT...WITH SOME MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
POSSIBLE IN RAIN LATE TONIGHT.

MARINE...

LIGHT EAST WINDS WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN TODAY.
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TONIGHT...BUT ARE EXPECTED
TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WOOD





000
FXUS63 KMKX 230829
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
329 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

250 MB NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THIS
MORNING BEFORE THE UPPER RIDGE REACHES THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY
EVENING. THE RIDGE WEAKENS AS IT ENTERS WISCONSIN TONIGHT. MAINLY
UPPER DIVERGENCE OCCURS TODAY AND TONIGHT...INCREASING OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN TOWARDS SUNRISE THURSDAY.

WEAK 700 MB WARM AIR ADVECTION TODAY AND THIS EVENING...THEN
INCREASES LATE TONIGHT. 700 MB UPWARD MOTION IS WEAK BEFORE IT
INCREASES WEST OF MADISON TOWARD EVENING. 700 MB UPWARD MOTION
CONTINUES OVERNIGHT AS IT SPREADS EAST. NAM TAKES A 55 KNOT SPEED
MAX ACROSS SOUTHWEST IOWA TOWARD NOON...AND INTO THE IOWA/ILLINOIS
BORDER AREA TOWARDS EVENING...BEFORE WEAKENING IT AS IT CROSSES
NORTHERN ILLINOIS TONIGHT. THIS RESULTS IN FAIRLY STRONG 700 MB
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN
ILLINOIS EARLY THIS EVENING. THE MAIN 850 MB LOW LEVEL JET REMAINS
ACROSS IOWA AND MINNESOTA THIS EVENING...SLOWLY REACHING THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER AREA LATE TONIGHT.

700 MB RH INCREASES OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS
AFTERNOON...SATURATING WEST OF MADISON BY EVENING. SATURATION THEN
OCCURS ACROSS ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.

THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE ACROSS FAR EASTERN WISCONSIN AT
SUNRISE...AND BE SLOW TO PUSH EAST...AND WILL STILL BE NEAR LAKE
MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE COOL LAKES. MEANWHILE SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE WEST OF MADISON LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...AND ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TONIGHT AS THE
TROUGH APPROACHES WISCONSIN.

EXPECT A DRY DAY TODAY...EXCEPT POSSIBLY WEST OF MADISON TOWARD
LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING...BEFORE RAIN OVERSPREADS THE AREA TONIGHT.
WEAK MID LEVEL CAPE OF ONLY 16 JOULES/KG LATE TONIGHT...SO WILL
NOT MENTION ANY THUNDER.

.SHORT TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS MEDIUM.

HIGH POPS WILL CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY ACROSS THE AREA...AS STRONG
AND FOCUSED WARM AIR ADVECTION FED BY 850 MB LOW LEVEL JET SHIFTS
THROUGH THE AREA. NAM/GFS/CANADIAN MODELS TAKE SURFACE LOW
NORTHEAST ACROSS WISCONSIN ON THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH
THE ECMWF KEEPING THE LOW TRACK DUE EAST ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS.
COULD SEE THE ECMWF SOLUTION WORK OUT...AS THESE LOWS OFTEN TAKE
THAT TRACK WITH THE COOL ONSHORE FLOW REINFORCING THE COOL AIR
OVER THE AREA. THIS WOULD KEEP THE WARM SECTOR AIRMASS TO THE
SOUTH AS WELL.

FOR NOW...WENT WITH A CONSENSUS BLEND OF THE MODELS WITH THE LOW
TRACK. PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER IN THE EAST THURSDAY EVENING...AS
THE 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA. PRECIPITATION SHOULD END LATER THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE AREA. ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS...AS ELEVATED CAPES ARE VERY WEAK. USED
CONSENSUS BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES...GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES WITH THE
LOW TRACK AND WARM SECTOR PLACEMENT BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND
NAM/GFS/CANADIAN MODELS.

COLD FRONT DOES NOT PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA UNTIL LATER ON
FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD COMBINE WITH GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO
BRING A MILD DAY TO THE AREA. AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME
WEAK MID LEVEL INSTABILITY WITH STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. SOME MOISTURE IN THAT AREA TO WORK WITH...THOUGH MODELS
DISAGREE WITH 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM PATH THROUGH THE REGION.
KEPT SMALL POPS FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR SHOWERS.

COLD AIR ADVECTION FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BRING QUIET WEATHER BUT
COOL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

ECMWF AND GFS ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH QPF WITH THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THEY KEEP THE AREA ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE
LOW...WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF QPF MOVING THROUGH THE AREA...MAINLY
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES WITH THE 500 MB
LOW TRACK...THOUGH THEY DO SHOW A CUTOFF LOW MOVING SLOWLY
EASTWARD.

FOR NOW...USED CONSENSUS POPS AND TEMPERATURES FOR THIS PERIOD.
QPF AMOUNTS COULD BE IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE EASILY IF THIS
SCENARIO WORKS OUT...WHICH MAY AGGRAVATE AREA RIVERS ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. EXPECT
AN INCREASE IN HIGH...THEN MID LEVEL CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON AS A
TROUGH APPROACHES WISCONSIN TONIGHT.

IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO OVERCOME DRY AIR BELOW 700 MB...WITH
THE LATEST NAM KEEPING RAIN WEST OF KMSN THROUGH 00Z AND OUT OF
EASTERN TAF SITES THROUGH 06Z WED.

MAINLY VFR CIGS/VSBYS EARLY TONIGHT...WITH SOME MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
POSSIBLE IN RAIN LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...

LIGHT EAST WINDS WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN TODAY.
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TONIGHT...BUT ARE EXPECTED
TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WOOD





000
FXUS63 KMKX 230211 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
911 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.UPDATE...

FORECAST TRENDING WELL WITH JUST A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
SKY/WINDS/TEMPERATURES. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON TEMPERATURES UNDER THE
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WIND REGIME...BUT NO MAJOR CHANGES
EXPECTED.

 &&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...
WINDS HAVE EASED WITH SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE STATE.
LOOKING AT KEEPING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST AT ALL TAF
SITES...WITH ONLY TEMPORARY MVFR VSBYS AT WORST WITH WARM
ADVECTION SHOWERS LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL
MAINTAIN PROB30 AT KMSN FROM 21Z UNTIL 00Z AND AT EASTERN SITES
FROM 00Z UNTIL 03Z WITH CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS ON
ISENTROPIC FORECASTS SHOWING IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO OVERCOME
DRY AIR BELOW 700 MB ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS. EVEN THE FASTER GFS
HOLDS THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION OVER S CENTRAL WI THROUGH
00Z...WITH THE LATEST NAM KEEPING PCPN WEST OF KMSN THROUGH 00Z
AND OUT OF EASTERN TAF SITES THROUGH 06Z WED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 247 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

TONIGHT - CONFIDENCE...HIGH
LINGERING FEW/SCT CU ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CWA WILL CLEAR OUT THIS
EVENING. JUST A BIT OF CIRRUS UPSTREAM LIKELY TO CLIP THE SW CWA.
QUIET AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. RIDGE AXIS OVER EASTERN WI
BY 12Z.

WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW EARLY WITH SURFACE//850 RIDGE AXES SHIFTING
EAST. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW STARTS TO TAKE SHAPE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS DRAWS CLOSER DURING THE DAY THOUGH MAIN FOCUS
WILL BE ON POTENTIAL ISENTROPICALLY GENERATED BAND OF SHRA ACROSS WRN
INTO SC WI DURING THE AFTERNOON. 4KM SPC WRF/12Z NAM/12Z ECMWF SHOW
PRECIP ADVANCEMENT INTO SRN WI QUITE SLOW AS LINGERING DRY AIRMASS
DOMINATES. GFS LOOKS OVERDONE. ISENTROPIC PLOTS DO SHOW LOWERING OF
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS DURING THE AFTERNOON...ESP ACRS SC WI
BUT STILL SHOWS A DECENT AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN THE EAST...WITH CPD/S
STILL AOA 100MB. 925 TEMPS DO MODIFY TO 4-6C IN THE AFTERNOON THOUGH
GFS THERMAL PROFILE LOOKS TOO COOL. INLAND AREAS SHOULD REACH LOW/MID
50S...THOUGH ONSHORE FLOW WILL MEAN MORE 40S FOR THE FAR EAST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO SWING THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE
EVENING WITH THE FOCUS AFTER MIDNIGHT SHIFTING TO THE WEST OF
MADISON WHERE THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE IMPINGING ON THE SFC AND
H8 WARM FRONTS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM/TROF.
THE SFC FRONT WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF WISCONSIN WED NGT...BUT THE H8
WARM FRONT SHOULD LIFT TO ABOUT A RACINE TO BARABOO LINE BY 12Z
THURSDAY. AN EASTERLY SFC WIND WILL ALLOW VERY CHILLY LAKE COOLED
AIR TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE AREA...ENSURING THAT SFC WARM FRONT
WILL STAY SOUTH. WE SHOULD SEE TWO SEPARATE RAIN AREAS...THE FIRST
SWINGS THROUGH DURING THE EVENING WITH A LULL POSSIBLE...BEFORE IT
GETS GOING AGAIN WHEN THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET PUSHES IN
LATER ON. THUNDER CHANCES LOOK QUITE LOW GIVEN THE LACK OF
INSTABILITY ON THE SOUNDINGS.

THE LOW PRESSURE TROF WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. THE
ECMWF IS KEEPING A WEAK SURFACE LOW SOUTH OF THE BORDER AS IT
MOVES THROUGH...THE GFS TAKES THE LOW OVER CNTRL TO NCNTRL WI AND
THE NAM TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHERN WI. I STILL BELIEVE THE MORE
SOUTHERN SOLUTION IS THE WAY TO GO. THAT WOULD KEEP THE SFC WARM
FRONT SOUTH OF THE BORDER...KEEPING US IN THE COOLER SOUTHEAST
FLOW OFF THE LAKE...CLASSIC FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. IT/S POSSIBLE
THE FAR SOUTHEAST COULD GET INTO A BRIEF WARM SECTOR IF THE LOW
MOVES ACROSS SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN. SO...EXPECT A COOL DAY ON
THURSDAY WITH RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY. NO
SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED. THURSDAY IS SEVERE WEATHER AWARENESS
DRILL DAY AND DON/T SEE ANY REASON WHY IT WON/T BE A GO.

FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY
EVENING...THEN EXIT QUICKLY WITH THE LATE NIGHT HOURS DRY. A
TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL TAKE IT/S TIME TO DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE
STATE...NOT UNTIL FRIDAY...WITH THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF OFFERING A HUGE
VARIETY OF OPTIONS ON TRENDS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED HERE THE ECMWF
HAS MADE A MASSIVE SHIFT IN HOW THINGS EVOLVE THIS WEEKEND INTO
NEXT WEEK...MORE ON THAT IN A MINUTE.

SO WE SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS STILL ABLE TO
CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S BEFORE THE FRONT DROPS
THROUGH. AS THE FRONT MOVES IN WE COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
DEVELOP FRI AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF MADISON.

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING DRY WEATHER ON SATURDAY.
BUT...THIS IS WHERE THE ECMWF AND THE GFS BEGIN TO BREAK. THE
MODELS HAD BEEN SHOWING A MASSIVE HUDSON BAY RIDGE THAT STRETCHED
SOUTH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND WAS GOING TO KEEP US VERY COOL
AND MOSTLY DRY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF HAS NOW WEAKENED
THE RIDGE CONSIDERABLY AND NOW SHOWS VERY STRONG LEE SFC
CYCLOGENESIS WITH THE LOW EVENTUALLY MOVING JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA ON MONDAY. GIVEN THE WEAKER CANADIAN RIDGE...THE ECMWF NOW
DEPICTS A MUCH WETTER POTENTIAL SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH MILDER
TEMPS. IT IS HARD TO TAKE SIDES AT THIS POINT AND THE MODEL BLEND
IS THE BEST WAY TO APPROACH THIS. STAY TUNED.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...NW WINDS WILL EASE TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH
SETTLES ACROSS ERN WI BY 12Z WED. PROXIMITY OF HIGH AND LINGERING
DRY AIR WILL DOMINATE INTO AT LEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING. SHRA CHANCES
WILL INCREASE ACRS SC WI DURG THE AFTN AS LEADING EDGE OF MOISTURE
ADVECTION ARRIVES ASSOCIATED WITH RENEWED WAA REGIME...THOUGH
SEVERAL MODELS SHOW PRECIP WILL STRUGGLE TO ADVANCE TOO FAR EAST
GIVEN LINGERING DRY AIR AND BETTER MOISTURE ADVECTION/LLJ AXIS
FURTHER WEST BACK INTO IA/MN.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...REM
TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...COLLAR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...DAVIS





000
FXUS63 KMKX 221947
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
247 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.TONIGHT - CONFIDENCE...HIGH
LINGERING FEW/SCT CU ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CWA WILL CLEAR OUT THIS
EVENING. JUST A BIT OF CIRRUS UPSTREAM LIKELY TO CLIP THE SW CWA.
QUIET AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. RIDGE AXIS OVER EASTERN WI
BY 12Z.

.WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW EARLY WITH SURFACE//850 RIDGE AXES SHIFTING
EAST. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW STARTS TO TAKE SHAPE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS DRAWS CLOSER DURING THE DAY THOUGH MAIN FOCUS
WILL BE ON POTENTIAL ISENTROPICALLY GENERATED BAND OF SHRA ACROSS WRN
INTO SC WI DURING THE AFTERNOON. 4KM SPC WRF/12Z NAM/12Z ECMWF SHOW
PRECIP ADVANCEMENT INTO SRN WI QUITE SLOW AS LINGERING DRY AIRMASS
DOMINATES. GFS LOOKS OVERDONE. ISENTROPIC PLOTS DO SHOW LOWERING OF
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS DURING THE AFTERNOON...ESP ACRS SC WI
BUT STILL SHOWS A DECENT AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN THE EAST...WITH CPD/S
STILL AOA 100MB. 925 TEMPS DO MODIFY TO 4-6C IN THE AFTERNOON THOUGH
GFS THERMAL PROFILE LOOKS TOO COOL. INLAND AREAS SHOULD REACH LOW/MID
50S...THOUGH ONSHORE FLOW WILL MEAN MORE 40S FOR THE FAR EAST.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO SWING THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE
EVENING WITH THE FOCUS AFTER MIDNIGHT SHIFTING TO THE WEST OF
MADISON WHERE THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE IMPINGING ON THE SFC AND
H8 WARM FRONTS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM/TROF.
THE SFC FRONT WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF WISCONSIN WED NGT...BUT THE H8
WARM FRONT SHOULD LIFT TO ABOUT A RACINE TO BARABOO LINE BY 12Z
THURSDAY. AN EASTERLY SFC WIND WILL ALLOW VERY CHILLY LAKE COOLED
AIR TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE AREA...ENSURING THAT SFC WARM FRONT
WILL STAY SOUTH. WE SHOULD SEE TWO SEPARATE RAIN AREAS...THE FIRST
SWINGS THROUGH DURING THE EVENING WITH A LULL POSSIBLE...BEFORE IT
GETS GOING AGAIN WHEN THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET PUSHES IN
LATER ON. THUNDER CHANCES LOOK QUITE LOW GIVEN THE LACK OF
INSTABILITY ON THE SOUNDINGS.

THE LOW PRESSURE TROF WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. THE
ECMWF IS KEEPING A WEAK SURFACE LOW SOUTH OF THE BORDER AS IT
MOVES THROUGH...THE GFS TAKES THE LOW OVER CNTRL TO NCNTRL WI AND
THE NAM TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHERN WI. I STILL BELIEVE THE MORE
SOUTHERN SOLUTION IS THE WAY TO GO. THAT WOULD KEEP THE SFC WARM
FRONT SOUTH OF THE BORDER...KEEPING US IN THE COOLER SOUTHEAST
FLOW OFF THE LAKE...CLASSIC FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. IT/S POSSIBLE
THE FAR SOUTHEAST COULD GET INTO A BRIEF WARM SECTOR IF THE LOW
MOVES ACROSS SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN. SO...EXPECT A COOL DAY ON
THURSDAY WITH RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY. NO
SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED. THURSDAY IS SEVERE WEATHER AWARENESS
DRILL DAY AND DON/T SEE ANY REASON WHY IT WON/T BE A GO.

.FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY
EVENING...THEN EXIT QUICKLY WITH THE LATE NIGHT HOURS DRY. A
TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL TAKE IT/S TIME TO DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE
STATE...NOT UNTIL FRIDAY...WITH THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF OFFERING A HUGE
VARIETY OF OPTIONS ON TRENDS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED HERE THE ECMWF
HAS MADE A MASSIVE SHIFT IN HOW THINGS EVOLVE THIS WEEKEND INTO
NEXT WEEK...MORE ON THAT IN A MINUTE.

SO WE SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS STILL ABLE TO
CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S BEFORE THE FRONT DROPS
THROUGH. AS THE FRONT MOVES IN WE COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
DEVELOP FRI AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF MADISON.

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING DRY WEATHER ON SATURDAY.
BUT...THIS IS WHERE THE ECMWF AND THE GFS BEGIN TO BREAK. THE
MODELS HAD BEEN SHOWING A MASSIVE HUDSON BAY RIDGE THAT STRETCHED
SOUTH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND WAS GOING TO KEEP US VERY COOL
AND MOSTLY DRY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF HAS NOW WEAKENED
THE RIDGE CONSIDERABLY AND NOW SHOWS VERY STRONG LEE SFC
CYCLOGENESIS WITH THE LOW EVENTUALLY MOVING JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA ON MONDAY. GIVEN THE WEAKER CANADIAN RIDGE...THE ECMWF NOW
DEPICTS A MUCH WETTER POTENTIAL SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH MILDER
TEMPS. IT IS HARD TO TAKE SIDES AT THIS POINT AND THE MODEL BLEND
IS THE BEST WAY TO APPROACH THIS. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...NW WINDS WILL EASE TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH
SETTLES ACROSS ERN WI BY 12Z WED. PROXIMITY OF HIGH AND LINGERING
DRY AIR WILL DOMINATE INTO AT LEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING. SHRA CHANCES
WILL INCREASE ACRS SC WI DURG THE AFTN AS LEADING EDGE OF MOISTURE
ADVECTION ARRIVES ASSOCIATED WITH RENEWED WAA REGIME...THOUGH
SEVERAL MODELS SHOW PRECIP WILL STRUGGLE TO ADVANCE TOO FAR EAST
GIVEN LINGERING DRY AIR AND BETTER MOISTURE ADVECTION/LLJ AXIS
FURTHER WEST BACK INTO IA/MN.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...COLLAR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...DAVIS





000
FXUS63 KMKX 221558
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1058 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...CU FIELD ACRS NE WI ASSOCIATED WITH MID
LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW AND CHILLIEST TEMPS ALOFT. SOME CU HAS
DEVELOPED ACROSS SRN BUT VERY FAR AND FEW BETWEEN. APPEARS THE
SOUTH WILL BE FEW OR SCT AT MOST INTO THE AFTN HRS. NW WINDS STILL
GUSTY BUT EXPECT THESE WINDS TO EASE TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH
SETTLES ACROSS ERN WI BY 12Z WED. PROXIMITY OF HIGH AND LINGERING
DRY AIR WILL DOMINATE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. SHRA CHANCES WILL
INCREASE ACRS SC WI DURG THE AFTN AS LEADING EDGE OF MOISTURE
ADVECTION ARRIVES ASSOCIATED WITH RENEWED WAA REGIME.

PC

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL REACH THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT WITH THE UPPER RIDGE STILL OVER THE PLAINS.

MODERATE 700 MB DOWNWARD MOTION TODAY AND THIS EVENING WITH DRY
MID AND LOW LEVELS. A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE EXISTS AT THE TOP
OF AN INVERSION AROUND 6 THSD FT...MAINLY OVER NORTHEAST AREAS
TOWARD SHEBOYGAN. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS.
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 9.6 CELSIUS/KM BELOW THE INVERSION.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS THIS MORNING...BUT
BY THE TIME HEATING RESULTS IN THE STEEP LAPSE RATES...THE 850 MB
WINDS BEGIN TO DECREASE. STILL SOME POTENTIAL OF 25 MPH GUSTS INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO WISCONSIN.

LOOKS LIKE THE WINDS WILL MAINTAIN ENOUGH OF A NW COMPONENT
THROUGH THE MORNING FOR TEMPS TO GET INTO THE LOW 50S NEAR LAKE
MICHIGAN. WINDS WILL LIKELY TURN NORTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH
TEMPS THEN FALLING NEAR THE LAKE.

THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN LATE
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME CALM LATER TONIGHT. DR5Y AIR WILL
PREVENT MUCH IN THE WAY OF FOG POTENTIAL.

SHORT TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

SHORT TERM MODELS SHOWING STRONG 850 MB TO 700 MB FRONTOGENESIS
RESPONSE FIELDS SHIFTING INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THEN ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STRONG
850 MB WARM AIR ADVECTION ALSO OCCURS OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH LOW LEVEL JET POINTING INTO THE REGION. AREA
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM NAM/GFS SHOW A FAIR AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN
THE LOW LEVELS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THOUGH IT MOISTENS UP QUITE A
BIT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GFS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH QPF MOVING INTO THE
AREA WEDNESDAY...LIKELY TOO FAST GIVEN DRY LOW LEVELS. CONTINUED
TO TREND UPWARDS WITH POPS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO
EAST...THEN HIGHER END POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH LOW TRACKING NORTHEAST ACROSS
WISCONSIN THURSDAY...PULLING A COLD FRONT EASTWARD THROUGH THE
REGION. AIR COLUMN REMAINS SATURATED...AS 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH
BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED SHIFTING THROUGH THE REGION. CONTINUED
HIGH POPS FOR THURSDAY. AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING ELEVATED
CAPES OF ONLY A FEW HUNDRED J/KG AT BEST THURSDAY...SO HAVE
CHANGED THUNDER WORDING TO CHANCE. SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE REGION
GRADUALLY THURSDAY NIGHT...SO CONTINUED TO BRING POPS DOWNWARD.

COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY...WITH ONSHORE WINDS NEAR
LAKE MICHIGAN. WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES WARM
SOMEWHAT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THOUGH ONSHORE WINDS
THURSDAY SHOULD KEEP LAKESHORE AREAS SOMEWHAT COOLER. GUSTY
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

GFS/ECMWF BRING A 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING LINGERING POPS. THEY THEN BRING A
COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY...WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS. THIS WILL BRING A COOL STRETCH OF TEMPERATURES TO THE
AREA...LASTING THROUGH SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS WINDS REMAIN ONSHORE.

THIS PERSISTENT COOL AND DRY FLOW SHOULD HELP BEAT BACK ANY
POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION WITH THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
EASTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY REGIONS. USED CONSENSUS POPS AND TEMPERATURES FOR THIS
PERIOD FOR NOW...AND MAY BE ABLE TO LOWER POPS IN LATER FORECASTS
IF THE COOL AND DRY FLOW CONTINUES TO BE SHOWN DURING THIS PERIOD.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND THIS EVENING. NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL INCREASE BY MID-MORNING TO BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KNOTS...TURNING
NORTHEAST NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN BY MID-AFTERNOON. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
TONIGHT.

WINDS WILL BECOME CALM LATER TONIGHT. DR5Y AIR WILL PREVENT MUCH
IN THE WAY OF FOG POTENTIAL.

MARINE...

WINDS GUSTING TO 30 KNOTS AT MANITOWOC AND 27 KNOTS AT SHEBOYGAN
SO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON TRACK AS THE BRISK WINDS
PUSH SOUTH ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN. A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE WESTERN LAKES LATER THIS AFTERNOON CAUSING THE
WINDS TO DIMINISH.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     LMZ643>646.

&&

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WOOD





000
FXUS63 KMKX 220830
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
330 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL REACH THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT WITH THE UPPER RIDGE STILL OVER THE PLAINS.

MODERATE 700 MB DOWNWARD MOTION TODAY AND THIS EVENING WITH DRY
MID AND LOW LEVELS. A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE EXISTS AT THE TOP
OF AN INVERSION AROUND 6 THSD FT...MAINLY OVER NORTHEAST AREAS
TOWARD SHEBOYGAN. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS.
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 9.6 CELSIUS/KM BELOW THE INVERSION.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS THIS MORNING...BUT
BY THE TIME HEATING RESULTS IN THE STEEP LAPSE RATES...THE 850 MB
WINDS BEGIN TO DECREASE. STILL SOME POTENTIAL OF 25 MPH GUSTS INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO WISCONSIN.

LOOKS LIKE THE WINDS WILL MAINTAIN ENOUGH OF A NW COMPONENT
THROUGH THE MORNING FOR TEMPS TO GET INTO THE LOW 50S NEAR LAKE
MICHIGAN. WINDS WILL LIKELY TURN NORTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH
TEMPS THEN FALLING NEAR THE LAKE.

THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN LATE
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME CALM LATER TONIGHT. DR5Y AIR WILL
PREVENT MUCH IN THE WAY OF FOG POTENTIAL.

.SHORT TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

SHORT TERM MODELS SHOWING STRONG 850 MB TO 700 MB FRONTOGENESIS
RESPONSE FIELDS SHIFTING INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THEN ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STRONG
850 MB WARM AIR ADVECTION ALSO OCCURS OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH LOW LEVEL JET POINTING INTO THE REGION. AREA
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM NAM/GFS SHOW A FAIR AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN
THE LOW LEVELS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THOUGH IT MOISTENS UP QUITE A
BIT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GFS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH QPF MOVING INTO THE
AREA WEDNESDAY...LIKELY TOO FAST GIVEN DRY LOW LEVELS. CONTINUED
TO TREND UPWARDS WITH POPS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO
EAST...THEN HIGHER END POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH LOW TRACKING NORTHEAST ACROSS
WISCONSIN THURSDAY...PULLING A COLD FRONT EASTWARD THROUGH THE
REGION. AIR COLUMN REMAINS SATURATED...AS 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH
BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED SHIFTING THROUGH THE REGION. CONTINUED
HIGH POPS FOR THURSDAY. AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING ELEVATED
CAPES OF ONLY A FEW HUNDRED J/KG AT BEST THURSDAY...SO HAVE
CHANGED THUNDER WORDING TO CHANCE. SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE REGION
GRADUALLY THURSDAY NIGHT...SO CONTINUED TO BRING POPS DOWNWARD.

COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY...WITH ONSHORE WINDS NEAR
LAKE MICHIGAN. WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES WARM
SOMEWHAT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THOUGH ONSHORE WINDS
THURSDAY SHOULD KEEP LAKESHORE AREAS SOMEWHAT COOLER. GUSTY
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

GFS/ECMWF BRING A 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING LINGERING POPS. THEY THEN BRING A
COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY...WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS. THIS WILL BRING A COOL STRETCH OF TEMPERATURES TO THE
AREA...LASTING THROUGH SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS WINDS REMAIN ONSHORE.

THIS PERSISTENT COOL AND DRY FLOW SHOULD HELP BEAT BACK ANY
POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION WITH THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
EASTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY REGIONS. USED CONSENSUS POPS AND TEMPERATURES FOR THIS
PERIOD FOR NOW...AND MAY BE ABLE TO LOWER POPS IN LATER FORECASTS
IF THE COOL AND DRY FLOW CONTINUES TO BE SHOWN DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND THIS EVENING. NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL INCREASE BY MID-MORNING TO BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KNOTS...TURNING
NORTHEAST NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN BY MID-AFTERNOON. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
TONIGHT.

WINDS WILL BECOME CALM LATER TONIGHT. DR5Y AIR WILL PREVENT MUCH
IN THE WAY OF FOG POTENTIAL.

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS GUSTING TO 30 KNOTS AT MANITOWOC AND 27 KNOTS AT SHEBOYGAN
SO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON TRACK AS THE BRISK WINDS
PUSH SOUTH ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN. A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE WESTERN LAKES LATER THIS AFTERNOON CAUSING THE
WINDS TO DIMINISH.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WOOD





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