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000
FXUS63 KMKX 031552
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1052 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.UPDATE...
PLEASANT DAY ON TRACK FOR TODAY. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS
EVENING BRINGING A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS. CAPE IS MINIMAL WITH THE NAM MOST AGGRESSIVE
WITH UP TO 200 J/KG...BUT AN INVERTED V SOUNDING SUPPORTS SOME
ISOLATED WIND GUSTS.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...
GUSTY WEST WINDS EXPECTED TODAY WITH SCATTERED CUMULOUS AROUND 6
KFT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING. EXPECT WINDS TO
SHIFT TO THE NORTH AT TAF SITES BETWEEN 3 AND 6Z WTIH TEMPORARY
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AS A LINE OF SHOWERS MOVES THROUGH. THERE IS A
SMALL CHANCE OF THUNERSTORMS AND SOME GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.
MVFR CONDITIONS MAY LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT AT EASTERN TAF SITES.
GUSTY NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. THEN A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS
EVENING BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND
THE FRONT NORTH WINDS WILL RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT ADIVSORY CONDITIONS
ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

LOOK FOR FULL SUN THIS MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES RESPONDING NICELY.
HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S...INCLUDING NEAR THE
LAKE DUE TO AN OFF SHORE FLOW FOR ONCE.  A VERY STRONG MID LEVEL
SHORT WAVE WILL BE DIVING SOUTH ACROSS WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH
THE SHARP TROF AXIS OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN BY 06Z WEDNESDAY. THE
ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT SHOULD REACH OUR FAR NRN TIER OF COUNTIES
AROUND 00Z...THEN THE FAR SOUTHEAST BY 06Z. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
THIS AFTERNOON WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS ARRIVING WITH THE
APPROACH/PASSAGE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  THERE IS ENOUGH
CAPE...QUITE SKINNY BUT TALL...TO SUPPORT THE CHANCE OF THUNDER AS
WELL. 0F AND -20F ARE QUITE LOW...SO COULD SEE LOTS OF SMALL HAIL IN
ANY STORMS THAT GET SOME DEPTH. THE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WOULD SUPPORT SOME GUSTY WINDS AS WELL.

WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

COLD NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY AS A DEEP CLOSED TROUGH PROPAGATES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AREA. THE MAIN
QUESTION IS WITH WHETHER OR NOT ANY RAIN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP IN
THE AFTERNOON. THE 03.00Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM ALL SHOW A SOUTH TO NORTH
ORIENTED BAND OF SHOWERS THAT APPEARS TO BE FOCUSED ON A WEAK
INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH. THE 03.00Z NAM DID BACK OFF ON QPF AND
ONLY SHOWS A THIN LAYER WHERE RH IS SATURATED AROUND 800MB.
THOUGHT ABOUT PULLED THE SMALL CHANCES THAT ARE IN THERE...BUT
DECIDED TO JUST LET IT RIDE FOR THE TIME BEING. TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 36-38F RANGE...SO WILL
HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SOME FROST THOUGH IT LOOKS LIKE
WE ARE STILL IN THE TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT FOR MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

OMEGA BLOCK SETS UP AS THE TROUGH DIGS IN THE EAST AND ALSO THE
WESTERN US. SURFACE RIDGING WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH THE WARMER AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE WEST STARTING
THURSDAY EVENING. FRIDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
WEEK WITH SOME SPOTS TOPPING OUT AROUND 80F. A COLD FRONT WILL
THEN MOVE INTO THE REGION EARLY ON SATURDAY AND BRING THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE REGION. THE 03.00Z
GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT THIS FRONT WILL STAY PROGRESSIVE AND
PUSH SOUTH OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY NIGHT.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE TAF SITES BETWEEN ABOUT 03-06Z
WEDNESDAY...THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM WEST TO NORTH
NORTHEAST AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH.  LOOK FOR A BAND OF
SHOWERS...WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT.
TEMPORARY MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE SHOWERS. SOME SMALL
HAIL AND ISOLATED STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THE
STRONGER SHOWERS/STORMS. WE MAY SEE A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...BUT MAINLY OVER THE
SOUTHEAST TAF SITES OF KMKE/KUES/KENW. CIGS WOULD LIFT AFTER SUNRISE
ON WEDNESDAY.

MARINE...

WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS FOR A SHORT TIME THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
DOWN THE LAKE THIS EVENING. STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MARQUARDT
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DAVIS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HALBACH





000
FXUS63 KMKX 031552
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1052 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.UPDATE...
PLEASANT DAY ON TRACK FOR TODAY. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS
EVENING BRINGING A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS. CAPE IS MINIMAL WITH THE NAM MOST AGGRESSIVE
WITH UP TO 200 J/KG...BUT AN INVERTED V SOUNDING SUPPORTS SOME
ISOLATED WIND GUSTS.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...
GUSTY WEST WINDS EXPECTED TODAY WITH SCATTERED CUMULOUS AROUND 6
KFT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING. EXPECT WINDS TO
SHIFT TO THE NORTH AT TAF SITES BETWEEN 3 AND 6Z WTIH TEMPORARY
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AS A LINE OF SHOWERS MOVES THROUGH. THERE IS A
SMALL CHANCE OF THUNERSTORMS AND SOME GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.
MVFR CONDITIONS MAY LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT AT EASTERN TAF SITES.
GUSTY NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. THEN A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS
EVENING BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND
THE FRONT NORTH WINDS WILL RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT ADIVSORY CONDITIONS
ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

LOOK FOR FULL SUN THIS MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES RESPONDING NICELY.
HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S...INCLUDING NEAR THE
LAKE DUE TO AN OFF SHORE FLOW FOR ONCE.  A VERY STRONG MID LEVEL
SHORT WAVE WILL BE DIVING SOUTH ACROSS WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH
THE SHARP TROF AXIS OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN BY 06Z WEDNESDAY. THE
ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT SHOULD REACH OUR FAR NRN TIER OF COUNTIES
AROUND 00Z...THEN THE FAR SOUTHEAST BY 06Z. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
THIS AFTERNOON WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS ARRIVING WITH THE
APPROACH/PASSAGE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  THERE IS ENOUGH
CAPE...QUITE SKINNY BUT TALL...TO SUPPORT THE CHANCE OF THUNDER AS
WELL. 0F AND -20F ARE QUITE LOW...SO COULD SEE LOTS OF SMALL HAIL IN
ANY STORMS THAT GET SOME DEPTH. THE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WOULD SUPPORT SOME GUSTY WINDS AS WELL.

WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

COLD NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY AS A DEEP CLOSED TROUGH PROPAGATES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AREA. THE MAIN
QUESTION IS WITH WHETHER OR NOT ANY RAIN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP IN
THE AFTERNOON. THE 03.00Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM ALL SHOW A SOUTH TO NORTH
ORIENTED BAND OF SHOWERS THAT APPEARS TO BE FOCUSED ON A WEAK
INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH. THE 03.00Z NAM DID BACK OFF ON QPF AND
ONLY SHOWS A THIN LAYER WHERE RH IS SATURATED AROUND 800MB.
THOUGHT ABOUT PULLED THE SMALL CHANCES THAT ARE IN THERE...BUT
DECIDED TO JUST LET IT RIDE FOR THE TIME BEING. TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 36-38F RANGE...SO WILL
HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SOME FROST THOUGH IT LOOKS LIKE
WE ARE STILL IN THE TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT FOR MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

OMEGA BLOCK SETS UP AS THE TROUGH DIGS IN THE EAST AND ALSO THE
WESTERN US. SURFACE RIDGING WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH THE WARMER AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE WEST STARTING
THURSDAY EVENING. FRIDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
WEEK WITH SOME SPOTS TOPPING OUT AROUND 80F. A COLD FRONT WILL
THEN MOVE INTO THE REGION EARLY ON SATURDAY AND BRING THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE REGION. THE 03.00Z
GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT THIS FRONT WILL STAY PROGRESSIVE AND
PUSH SOUTH OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY NIGHT.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE TAF SITES BETWEEN ABOUT 03-06Z
WEDNESDAY...THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM WEST TO NORTH
NORTHEAST AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH.  LOOK FOR A BAND OF
SHOWERS...WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT.
TEMPORARY MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE SHOWERS. SOME SMALL
HAIL AND ISOLATED STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THE
STRONGER SHOWERS/STORMS. WE MAY SEE A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...BUT MAINLY OVER THE
SOUTHEAST TAF SITES OF KMKE/KUES/KENW. CIGS WOULD LIFT AFTER SUNRISE
ON WEDNESDAY.

MARINE...

WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS FOR A SHORT TIME THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
DOWN THE LAKE THIS EVENING. STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MARQUARDT
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DAVIS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HALBACH





000
FXUS63 KMKX 030800
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
256 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

LOOK FOR FULL SUN THIS MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES RESPONDING NICELY.
HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S...INCLUDING NEAR THE
LAKE DUE TO AN OFF SHORE FLOW FOR ONCE.  A VERY STRONG MID LEVEL
SHORT WAVE WILL BE DIVING SOUTH ACROSS WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH
THE SHARP TROF AXIS OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN BY 06Z WEDNESDAY. THE
ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT SHOULD REACH OUR FAR NRN TIER OF COUNTIES
AROUND 00Z...THEN THE FAR SOUTHEAST BY 06Z. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
THIS AFTERNOON WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS ARRIVING WITH THE
APPROACH/PASSAGE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  THERE IS ENOUGH
CAPE...QUITE SKINNY BUT TALL...TO SUPPORT THE CHANCE OF THUNDER AS
WELL. 0F AND -20F ARE QUITE LOW...SO COULD SEE LOTS OF SMALL HAIL IN
ANY STORMS THAT GET SOME DEPTH. THE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WOULD SUPPORT SOME GUSTY WINDS AS WELL.

.WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

COLD NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY AS A DEEP CLOSED TROUGH PROPAGATES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AREA. THE MAIN
QUESTION IS WITH WHETHER OR NOT ANY RAIN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP IN
THE AFTERNOON. THE 03.00Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM ALL SHOW A SOUTH TO NORTH
ORIENTED BAND OF SHOWERS THAT APPEARS TO BE FOCUSED ON A WEAK
INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH. THE 03.00Z NAM DID BACK OFF ON QPF AND
ONLY SHOWS A THIN LAYER WHERE RH IS SATURATED AROUND 800MB.
THOUGHT ABOUT PULLED THE SMALL CHANCES THAT ARE IN THERE...BUT
DECIDED TO JUST LET IT RIDE FOR THE TIME BEING. TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 36-38F RANGE...SO WILL
HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SOME FROST THOUGH IT LOOKS LIKE
WE ARE STILL IN THE TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT FOR MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

.THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

OMEGA BLOCK SETS UP AS THE TROUGH DIGS IN THE EAST AND ALSO THE
WESTERN US. SURFACE RIDGING WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH THE WARMER AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE WEST STARTING
THURSDAY EVENING. FRIDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
WEEK WITH SOME SPOTS TOPPING OUT AROUND 80F. A COLD FRONT WILL
THEN MOVE INTO THE REGION EARLY ON SATURDAY AND BRING THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE REGION. THE 03.00Z
GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT THIS FRONT WILL STAY PROGRESSIVE AND
PUSH SOUTH OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE TAF SITES BETWEEN ABOUT 03-06Z
WEDNESDAY...THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM WEST TO NORTH
NORTHEAST AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH.  LOOK FOR A BAND OF
SHOWERS...WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT.
TEMPORARY MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE SHOWERS. SOME SMALL
HAIL AND ISOLATED STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THE
STRONGER SHOWERS/STORMS. WE MAY SEE A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...BUT MAINLY OVER THE
SOUTHEAST TAF SITES OF KMKE/KUES/KENW. CIGS WOULD LIFT AFTER SUNRISE
ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS FOR A SHORT TIME THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
DOWN THE LAKE THIS EVENING. STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR
LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DAVIS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HALBACH





000
FXUS63 KMKX 030756
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
256 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

LOOK FOR FULL SUN THIS MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES RESPONDING NICELY.
HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S...INCLUDING NEAR THE
LAKE DUE TO AN OFF SHORE FLOW FOR ONCE.  A VERY STRONG MID LEVEL
SHORT WAVE WILL BE DIVING SOUTH ACROSS WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH
THE SHARP TROF AXIS OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN BY 06Z WEDNESDAY. THE
ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT SHOULD REACH OUR FAR NRN TIER OF COUNTIES
AROUND 00Z...THEN THE FAR SOUTHEAST BY 06Z. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
THIS AFTERNOON WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS ARRIVING WITH THE
APPROACH/PASSAGE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  THERE IS ENOUGH
CAPE...QUITE SKINNY BUT TALL...TO SUPPORT THE CHANCE OF THUNDER AS
WELL. 0F AND -20F ARE QUITE LOW...SO COULD SEE LOTS OF SMALL HAIL IN
ANY STORMS THAT GET SOME DEPTH. THE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WOULD SUPPORT SOME GUSTY WINDS AS WELL.

.WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

COLD NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY AS A DEEP CLOSED TROUGH PROPAGATES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AREA. THE MAIN
QUESTION IS WITH WHETHER OR NOT ANY RAIN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP IN
THE AFTERNOON. THE 03.00Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM ALL SHOW A SOUTH TO NORTH
ORIENTED BAND OF SHOWERS THAT APPEARS TO BE FOCUSED ON A WEAK
INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH. THE 03.00Z NAM DID BACK OFF ON QPF AND
ONLY SHOWS A THIN LAYER WHERE RH IS SATURATED AROUND 800MB.
THOUGHT ABOUT PULLED THE SMALL CHANCES THAT ARE IN THERE...BUT
DECIDED TO JUST LET IT RIDE FOR THE TIME BEING. TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 36-38F RANGE...SO WILL
HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SOME FROST THOUGH IT LOOKS LIKE
WE ARE STILL IN THE TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT FOR MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

.THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

OMEGA BLOCK SETS UP AS THE TROUGH DIGS IN THE EAST AND ALSO THE
WESTERN US. SURFACE RIDGING WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH THE WARMER AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE WEST STARTING
THURSDAY EVENING. FRIDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
WEEK WITH SOME SPOTS TOPPING OUT AROUND 80F. A COLD FRONT WILL
THEN MOVE INTO THE REGION EARLY ON SATURDAY AND BRING THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE REGION. THE 03.00Z
GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT THIS FRONT WILL STAY PROGRESSIVE AND
PUSH SOUTH OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE TAF SITES BETWEEN ABOUT 03-06Z
WEDNESDAY...THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM WEST TO NORTH
NORTHEAST AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH.  LOOK FOR A BAND OF
SHOWERS...WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT.
TEMPORARY MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE SHOWERS. SOME SMALL
HAIL AND ISOLATED STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THE
STRONGER SHOWERS/STORMS. WE MAY SEE A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...BUT MAINLY OVER THE
SOUTHEAST TAF SITES OF KMKE/KUES/KENW. CIGS WOULD LIFT AFTER SUNRISE
ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS FOR A SHORT TIME THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
DOWN THE LAKE THIS EVENING. STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DAVIS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HALBACH





000
FXUS63 KMKX 030345
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1045 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.UPDATE...LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO
FALL RAPIDLY LATE THIS EVENING ACROSS EASTERN CWA. HENCE NEEDED TO
LOWER TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S AND
INTRODUCE PATCHY LATE NIGHT FROST AWAY FROM THE LAKE.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MBK





000
FXUS63 KMKX 030345
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1045 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.UPDATE...LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO
FALL RAPIDLY LATE THIS EVENING ACROSS EASTERN CWA. HENCE NEEDED TO
LOWER TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S AND
INTRODUCE PATCHY LATE NIGHT FROST AWAY FROM THE LAKE.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MBK





000
FXUS63 KMKX 030221
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
921 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.UPDATE...REMAINING HIGH BASED CU CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY ERODE
OVER WESTERN CWA AS WELL AS TO THE NORTH OVER CENTRAL WI. POSSIBLE
SOME FEW-SCT CLOUDS MAY HOLD TOGETHER AND AFFECT SOME AREAS BUT WL
CONTINUE MOSTLY CLEAR WORDING OVERNIGHT. MINIMUM TEMPS LOOK IN
REASONABLY GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR BULK OF FORECAST
PERIOD. MOST LIKELY A 1 TO 2 HOUR PERIOD OF -SHRA AND POSSIBLY A
T-STORM WILL AFFECT TAF SITES MOSTLY BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z
WEDNESDAY. POSSIBLE SOME LOWER CIGS AFFECT EASTERN TAF SITES LATER
TUE NIGHT POST SHOWERS AS COLDER LOW LEVEL AIR SPREADS IN.

&&

.MARINE...POSSIBLE SOME GUSTY WINDS REACHING 35-40 KTS MAY OCCUR
WITH A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TUESDAY EVENING AS RAIN
FALLS INTO DRY LOW LEVELS AND ACCELERATES TO LAKE SURFACE. ALSO
STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD AIR SURGE BEHIND PASSING COLD FRONT MAY
RESULT IN WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS LATER TUESDAY NIGHT. HENCE
BEEFED UP WORDING IN NEARSHORE FORECAST AND INCLUDED POTENTIAL FOR
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO BE REACHED TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016/

TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING AS DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST. SHOULD SEE SKIES EVENTUALLY TURN
MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT.

MORE CUMULUS IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TUESDAY.
A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN THE
NORTHERN FORECAST AREA. MILDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW
UNDER BREEZY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS.

TUESDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE RIDES INTO SRN WI DURING THE EVENING AND PASSES
TO OUR SOUTH LATER IN THE NIGHT. SURFACE LOW/STRONG COLD FRONT
AND APPRECIABLE UPPER JET DYNAMICS ARE ALL IN PLAY. MOISTURE WILL
BE THE BIG FACTOR LACKING. NEVERTHELESS THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT IN GENERATING A BAND OF SHRA WITH THESE FEATURES.
INVERTED-V LOOK TO SOUNDINGS WITH LIMITED ELEVATED CAPE. MESO
MODELS ALL SHOW DECENT BAND OF SHRA AND LIKELY SOME THUNDER. SO
BIGGEST IMPACT WOULD LIKELY BE FOR SOME CONVECTIVELY INDUCED NON-
SVR GUSTY WINDS.

WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
850/925 MILLIBAR THERMAL TROUGH WELL IN PLACE EARLY IN THE DAY AIDED
BY GUSTY 925 NORTHERLY WINDS 30-35 KNOTS. SEEING SOME NEGATIVE
CELSIUS NUMBERS AT 850 MILLIBARS...WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING
THE COLDEST SCENARIO. SECONDARY VORT MAX PROGGD TO ROTATE SOUTHWARD
ON WRN EDGE OF PRIMARY 500 MILLIBAR UPPER LOW THAT WILL HAVE SHIFTED
TO SRN LWR MI/NRN IN/NW OH VCNTY BY 00Z. EXPECT POP UP SHRA
POTENTIAL IN THIS PATTERN. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SOME SOME SKINNY CAPE.
SEEING SOME LIGHT QPF BEING GENERATED BY ALL MODELS SO SOME SLGT
CHC/CHC POPS SEEM REASONABLE. PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER...COOL
TEMPERATURES AND A NORTH BREEZE WILL MAKE FOR A NOT SO NICE SPRING
DAY.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
THE CHILL EASES AS 925/850 WAA STARTS TO TAKE SHAPE AND ACTUALLY
SPILLS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. 850 RIDGE AXIS MOVES INTO WRN/CNTRL WI
BY DAYS END FRIDAY. 925 TEMPS REACH ARND 10C THURSDAY AND PUSHING
20C DURING FRIDAY AFTERNOON. 500 MILLIBAR HEIGHTS GRADUALLY INCREASE
WITH NORTHWEST ANTICYCLONIC FLOW EVOLVING BY FRIDAY. DID A LITTLE
BOOST TO SUPERBLEND TEMPS ON FRIDAY TO BETTER TREND TOWARDS THE WARM
PROJECTED 925 TEMPS.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
RIDGE FLATTENING SHORTWAVE RIDES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS FEATURE
MORE AMPLIFIED ON THE ECMWF AND ESP THE GEM. THIS SLIDES FRONTAL
BOUNDARY INTO SRN WI WITH DECENT AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS FOR
SHRA/TSRA FOR THE AFTN/EVE HRS. WARM 925 TEMPS EXPECTED AHEAD OF
THE FRONT THOUGH 925 TEMPS PROGGD TO CRASH RATHER ABRUPTLY AS
BOUNDARY SHIFTS SOUTH IN THE EVENING. THIS COULD END UP BEING
ANOTHER SCENARIO WHERE FRONT ACCELERATES DOWN THE LAKE.

SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW TO MEDIUM
POSITIONING OF NW/SE ORIENTED 850/925 BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE KEY ON
WHETHER SW CWA WILL BE CLIPPED BY ANY PRECIP ALONG THIS FRONT. THE
FRONT IS LIKELY TO BE TO OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST PER CURRENT PROGS.
THE DAY COULD END UP BEING DRY IF SFC HIGH IS ABLE TO EXERT ENOUGH
INFLUENCE AND KEEP THE FRONTAL INDUCED PRECIP SOUTH OF OUR AREA. FOR
NOW WILL RETAIN THE SLGT CHC/CHC SUPERBLEND POPS. WITH FRONT LIKELY
TO OUR SOUTH SHOULD BE A MUCH COOLER DAY THAN THE PRIOR TWO.

MONDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW
500 MILLIBAR RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF WI WITH RENEWED SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ADVANCING EASTWARD TOWARDS WI. THE GFS IS FASTER IN
BRINGING WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH BACK INTO THE AREA AND WOULD
RESULT IN A RENEWED CHC OF SHRA/TSRA. MEANWHILE THE 12Z ECMWF
SHOWS THE WARM FRONT STAYING MUCH FURTHER BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
WI WITH PRECIP AS CLOSE AS CENTRAL IA. WILL STICK WITH SUPERBLEND
GUID ESP GIVEN THE MODEL DISPARITY.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. WILL SEE LATE AFTERNOON CUMULUS DECREASE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES LIKELY OVERNIGHT.

WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SHOWERS THEN LIKELY
TUESDAY EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT DROP THROUGH SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN. COULD BE A LITTLE THUNDER WITH THOSE SHOWERS.

MARINE...SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TUESDAY AND NORTH
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY WILL APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS. WINDS LOOK TOO BORDERLINE FOR AN ADVISORY AT THIS POINT...BUT
SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MBK
TONIGHT/TUESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...DDV
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...COLLAR





000
FXUS63 KMKX 030221
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
921 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.UPDATE...REMAINING HIGH BASED CU CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY ERODE
OVER WESTERN CWA AS WELL AS TO THE NORTH OVER CENTRAL WI. POSSIBLE
SOME FEW-SCT CLOUDS MAY HOLD TOGETHER AND AFFECT SOME AREAS BUT WL
CONTINUE MOSTLY CLEAR WORDING OVERNIGHT. MINIMUM TEMPS LOOK IN
REASONABLY GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR BULK OF FORECAST
PERIOD. MOST LIKELY A 1 TO 2 HOUR PERIOD OF -SHRA AND POSSIBLY A
T-STORM WILL AFFECT TAF SITES MOSTLY BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z
WEDNESDAY. POSSIBLE SOME LOWER CIGS AFFECT EASTERN TAF SITES LATER
TUE NIGHT POST SHOWERS AS COLDER LOW LEVEL AIR SPREADS IN.

&&

.MARINE...POSSIBLE SOME GUSTY WINDS REACHING 35-40 KTS MAY OCCUR
WITH A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TUESDAY EVENING AS RAIN
FALLS INTO DRY LOW LEVELS AND ACCELERATES TO LAKE SURFACE. ALSO
STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD AIR SURGE BEHIND PASSING COLD FRONT MAY
RESULT IN WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS LATER TUESDAY NIGHT. HENCE
BEEFED UP WORDING IN NEARSHORE FORECAST AND INCLUDED POTENTIAL FOR
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO BE REACHED TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016/

TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING AS DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST. SHOULD SEE SKIES EVENTUALLY TURN
MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT.

MORE CUMULUS IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TUESDAY.
A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN THE
NORTHERN FORECAST AREA. MILDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW
UNDER BREEZY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS.

TUESDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE RIDES INTO SRN WI DURING THE EVENING AND PASSES
TO OUR SOUTH LATER IN THE NIGHT. SURFACE LOW/STRONG COLD FRONT
AND APPRECIABLE UPPER JET DYNAMICS ARE ALL IN PLAY. MOISTURE WILL
BE THE BIG FACTOR LACKING. NEVERTHELESS THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT IN GENERATING A BAND OF SHRA WITH THESE FEATURES.
INVERTED-V LOOK TO SOUNDINGS WITH LIMITED ELEVATED CAPE. MESO
MODELS ALL SHOW DECENT BAND OF SHRA AND LIKELY SOME THUNDER. SO
BIGGEST IMPACT WOULD LIKELY BE FOR SOME CONVECTIVELY INDUCED NON-
SVR GUSTY WINDS.

WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
850/925 MILLIBAR THERMAL TROUGH WELL IN PLACE EARLY IN THE DAY AIDED
BY GUSTY 925 NORTHERLY WINDS 30-35 KNOTS. SEEING SOME NEGATIVE
CELSIUS NUMBERS AT 850 MILLIBARS...WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING
THE COLDEST SCENARIO. SECONDARY VORT MAX PROGGD TO ROTATE SOUTHWARD
ON WRN EDGE OF PRIMARY 500 MILLIBAR UPPER LOW THAT WILL HAVE SHIFTED
TO SRN LWR MI/NRN IN/NW OH VCNTY BY 00Z. EXPECT POP UP SHRA
POTENTIAL IN THIS PATTERN. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SOME SOME SKINNY CAPE.
SEEING SOME LIGHT QPF BEING GENERATED BY ALL MODELS SO SOME SLGT
CHC/CHC POPS SEEM REASONABLE. PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER...COOL
TEMPERATURES AND A NORTH BREEZE WILL MAKE FOR A NOT SO NICE SPRING
DAY.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
THE CHILL EASES AS 925/850 WAA STARTS TO TAKE SHAPE AND ACTUALLY
SPILLS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. 850 RIDGE AXIS MOVES INTO WRN/CNTRL WI
BY DAYS END FRIDAY. 925 TEMPS REACH ARND 10C THURSDAY AND PUSHING
20C DURING FRIDAY AFTERNOON. 500 MILLIBAR HEIGHTS GRADUALLY INCREASE
WITH NORTHWEST ANTICYCLONIC FLOW EVOLVING BY FRIDAY. DID A LITTLE
BOOST TO SUPERBLEND TEMPS ON FRIDAY TO BETTER TREND TOWARDS THE WARM
PROJECTED 925 TEMPS.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
RIDGE FLATTENING SHORTWAVE RIDES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS FEATURE
MORE AMPLIFIED ON THE ECMWF AND ESP THE GEM. THIS SLIDES FRONTAL
BOUNDARY INTO SRN WI WITH DECENT AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS FOR
SHRA/TSRA FOR THE AFTN/EVE HRS. WARM 925 TEMPS EXPECTED AHEAD OF
THE FRONT THOUGH 925 TEMPS PROGGD TO CRASH RATHER ABRUPTLY AS
BOUNDARY SHIFTS SOUTH IN THE EVENING. THIS COULD END UP BEING
ANOTHER SCENARIO WHERE FRONT ACCELERATES DOWN THE LAKE.

SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW TO MEDIUM
POSITIONING OF NW/SE ORIENTED 850/925 BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE KEY ON
WHETHER SW CWA WILL BE CLIPPED BY ANY PRECIP ALONG THIS FRONT. THE
FRONT IS LIKELY TO BE TO OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST PER CURRENT PROGS.
THE DAY COULD END UP BEING DRY IF SFC HIGH IS ABLE TO EXERT ENOUGH
INFLUENCE AND KEEP THE FRONTAL INDUCED PRECIP SOUTH OF OUR AREA. FOR
NOW WILL RETAIN THE SLGT CHC/CHC SUPERBLEND POPS. WITH FRONT LIKELY
TO OUR SOUTH SHOULD BE A MUCH COOLER DAY THAN THE PRIOR TWO.

MONDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW
500 MILLIBAR RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF WI WITH RENEWED SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ADVANCING EASTWARD TOWARDS WI. THE GFS IS FASTER IN
BRINGING WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH BACK INTO THE AREA AND WOULD
RESULT IN A RENEWED CHC OF SHRA/TSRA. MEANWHILE THE 12Z ECMWF
SHOWS THE WARM FRONT STAYING MUCH FURTHER BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
WI WITH PRECIP AS CLOSE AS CENTRAL IA. WILL STICK WITH SUPERBLEND
GUID ESP GIVEN THE MODEL DISPARITY.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. WILL SEE LATE AFTERNOON CUMULUS DECREASE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES LIKELY OVERNIGHT.

WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SHOWERS THEN LIKELY
TUESDAY EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT DROP THROUGH SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN. COULD BE A LITTLE THUNDER WITH THOSE SHOWERS.

MARINE...SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TUESDAY AND NORTH
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY WILL APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS. WINDS LOOK TOO BORDERLINE FOR AN ADVISORY AT THIS POINT...BUT
SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MBK
TONIGHT/TUESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...DDV
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...COLLAR





000
FXUS63 KMKX 022015
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
315 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING AS DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST. SHOULD SEE SKIES EVENTUALLY TURN
MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT.

MORE CUMULUS IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TUESDAY.
A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN THE
NORTHERN FORECAST AREA. MILDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW
UNDER BREEZY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS.

.TUESDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE RIDES INTO SRN WI DURING THE EVENING AND PASSES
TO OUR SOUTH LATER IN THE NIGHT. SURFACE LOW/STRONG COLD FRONT
AND APPRECIABLE UPPER JET DYNAMICS ARE ALL IN PLAY. MOISTURE WILL
BE THE BIG FACTOR LACKING. NEVERTHELESS THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT IN GENERATING A BAND OF SHRA WITH THESE FEATURES.
INVERTED-V LOOK TO SOUNDINGS WITH LIMITED ELEVATED CAPE. MESO
MODELS ALL SHOW DECENT BAND OF SHRA AND LIKELY SOME THUNDER. SO
BIGGEST IMPACT WOULD LIKELY BE FOR SOME CONVECTIVELY INDUCED NON-
SVR GUSTY WINDS.

.WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
850/925 MILLIBAR THERMAL TROUGH WELL IN PLACE EARLY IN THE DAY AIDED
BY GUSTY 925 NORTHERLY WINDS 30-35 KNOTS. SEEING SOME NEGATIVE
CELSIUS NUMBERS AT 850 MILLIBARS...WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING
THE COLDEST SCENARIO. SECONDARY VORT MAX PROGGD TO ROTATE SOUTHWARD
ON WRN EDGE OF PRIMARY 500 MILLIBAR UPPER LOW THAT WILL HAVE SHIFTED
TO SRN LWR MI/NRN IN/NW OH VCNTY BY 00Z. EXPECT POP UP SHRA
POTENTIAL IN THIS PATTERN. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SOME SOME SKINNY CAPE.
SEEING SOME LIGHT QPF BEING GENERATED BY ALL MODELS SO SOME SLGT
CHC/CHC POPS SEEM REASONABLE. PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER...COOL
TEMPERATURES AND A NORTH BREEZE WILL MAKE FOR A NOT SO NICE SPRING
DAY.

.THURSDAY AND FRIDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
THE CHILL EASES AS 925/850 WAA STARTS TO TAKE SHAPE AND ACTUALLY
SPILLS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. 850 RIDGE AXIS MOVES INTO WRN/CNTRL WI
BY DAYS END FRIDAY. 925 TEMPS REACH ARND 10C THURSDAY AND PUSHING
20C DURING FRIDAY AFTERNOON. 500 MILLIBAR HEIGHTS GRADUALLY INCREASE
WITH NORTHWEST ANTICYCLONIC FLOW EVOLVING BY FRIDAY. DID A LITTLE
BOOST TO SUPERBLEND TEMPS ON FRIDAY TO BETTER TREND TOWARDS THE WARM
PROJECTED 925 TEMPS.

.SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
RIDGE FLATTENING SHORTWAVE RIDES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS FEATURE
MORE AMPLIFIED ON THE ECMWF AND ESP THE GEM. THIS SLIDES FRONTAL
BOUNDARY INTO SRN WI WITH DECENT AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS FOR
SHRA/TSRA FOR THE AFTN/EVE HRS. WARM 925 TEMPS EXPECTED AHEAD OF
THE FRONT THOUGH 925 TEMPS PROGGD TO CRASH RATHER ABRUPTLY AS
BOUNDARY SHIFTS SOUTH IN THE EVENING. THIS COULD END UP BEING
ANOTHER SCENARIO WHERE FRONT ACCELERATES DOWN THE LAKE.

.SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW TO MEDIUM
POSITIONING OF NW/SE ORIENTED 850/925 BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE KEY ON
WHETHER SW CWA WILL BE CLIPPED BY ANY PRECIP ALONG THIS FRONT. THE
FRONT IS LIKELY TO BE TO OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST PER CURRENT PROGS.
THE DAY COULD END UP BEING DRY IF SFC HIGH IS ABLE TO EXERT ENOUGH
INFLUENCE AND KEEP THE FRONTAL INDUCED PRECIP SOUTH OF OUR AREA. FOR
NOW WILL RETAIN THE SLGT CHC/CHC SUPERBLEND POPS. WITH FRONT LIKELY
TO OUR SOUTH SHOULD BE A MUCH COOLER DAY THAN THE PRIOR TWO.

.MONDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW
500 MILLIBAR RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF WI WITH RENEWED SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ADVANCING EASTWARD TOWARDS WI. THE GFS IS FASTER IN
BRINGING WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH BACK INTO THE AREA AND WOULD
RESULT IN A RENEWED CHC OF SHRA/TSRA. MEANWHILE THE 12Z ECMWF
SHOWS THE WARM FRONT STAYING MUCH FURTHER BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
WI WITH PRECIP AS CLOSE AS CENTRAL IA. WILL STICK WITH SUPERBLEND
GUID ESP GIVEN THE MODEL DISPARITY.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. WILL SEE LATE AFTERNOON CUMULUS DECREASE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES LIKELY OVERNIGHT.

WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SHOWERS THEN LIKELY
TUESDAY EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT DROP THROUGH SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN. COULD BE A LITTLE THUNDER WITH THOSE SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TUESDAY AND NORTH
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY WILL APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS. WINDS LOOK TOO BORDERLINE FOR AN ADVISORY AT THIS POINT...BUT
SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$
TONIGHT/TUESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...DDV
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...COLLAR





000
FXUS63 KMKX 021456 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
956 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.UPDATE...

SUNNY SKIES THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO SCATTERED OR BROKEN
CUMULUS LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY AWAY FROM LAKE
MICHIGAN. GFS IS STILL SHOWING LIGHT QPF THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL
MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW AS GFS DEWPOINTS PROBABLY A BIT
TOO HIGH. LOOKING AT MESOSCALE MODELS...COULD BE AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR TWO...BUT LOOKS MAINLY DRY. FORECAST HIGHS LOOK ON TRACK
FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WILL SEE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON CUMULUS DEVELOP AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN
TODAY...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT.

WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SHOWERS THEN
LIKELY TUESDAY EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT DROP THROUGH
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. COULD BE A LITTLE THUNDER WITH THOSE SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...

PRE-FRONTAL SOUTHWEST WIND REGIME ON TUESDAY NOT EXPECTED TO
RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS. AFTER FROPA TUESDAY
NIGHT...AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SO...NORTH WINDS MAY RESULT IN SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS LATER IN THE NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH

SHORT WAVE ENERGY PASSING TO THE WEST AND SOUTH AROUND BROAD TROUGH
BRINGS A WEAK 500 MB TROUGH AXIS THROUGH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...PUSHING SOUTH OVERNIGHT. 700 MB AND 850 MB
COLD POOLS LINGER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON CREATING SOME INSTABILITY
WITH DAYTIME HEATING. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING SOME WEAK CAPE
..50J/KG OR LESS...WITH MOISTURE TOO MEAGER FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN
SCATTERED TO BROKEN DIURNAL CU INLAND FROM THE LAKE.

GFS BRINGS A RIBBON OF LIGHT QPF ORIENTED NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...CENTERED ALONG A FOND DU
LAC...MADISON TO DARLINGTON LINE...BUT PCPN APPEARS TO BE TIED TO 2-
METER DEW POINTS THAT ARE 3 TO 5 DEGREES HIGHER THAN THE OTHER
OPERATIONAL MODELS...AND 5 TO 7 DEGREES HIGHER THAN THE MAV MOS
GUIDANCE. WITH DRY NORTH TO NORTHEAST FEED AND MIXING UP TO NEAR
800MB DROPPING DEW POINTS INTO THE UPPER 30S IF NOT LOWER...FEEL
NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW SPRINKLES POSSIBLE AT MOST OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON.

BASED ON 925 MB TEMPERATURES THE MIXING ALSO BRINGS HIGHS IN THE LOW
60S WELL INLAND...WHICH ARE TEMPERED BY EXPECTED DIURNAL CU. WENT
BELOW GUIDANCE IN THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES DUE TO ONSHORE WINDS.

HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FOR TONIGHT CLEARING SKIES AND BRINGING LIGHT
WEST WINDS. 925 MB TEMPS ON A SLOW RISE THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH
ENOUGH MIXING TO PREVENT DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG INVERSION SO
CONSENSUS LOW TEMPERATURES AROUND 40 EAST AND THE LOWER 40S WEST
LOOK GOOD.

TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TUESDAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH
OUT OF ONTARIO. A WEST TO EAST ORIENTED LOW LEVEL THERMAL AXIS
WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AND SHOULD HELP MAX TEMPERATURES GET TO AROUND 70 BEFORE THEY DROP
AS THE COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH. PERHAPS ANOTHER SETUP FOR A
PNEUMONIA FRONT...16F TEMPERATURE DROPS IN ONE HOUR OR LESS...WITH
LAKE MICHIGAN WATER TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S.

A BRIEF (HOUR TO TWO HOURS LONG) BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS...AND
POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS...IS EXPECTED TO COME THROUGH AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. QUITE A FEW FAVORABLE FORCING MECHANISMS IN PLACE FOR
THIS BAND WHICH INCLUDES LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS...A 500MB
SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE 250MB JET
STREAK ALL COMING INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AS THE COLD FRONT ENTERS
FROM THE NORTH. THIS STRONG FORCING LEADS TO HIGH VALUES OF
UPRIGHT OMEGA FROM THE SURFACE ON UP TO AROUND 400MB. THE
INSTABILITY PROFILE IS SKINNY BUT SHOULD BE AIDED BY THE STRONG
FORCING TO KEEP THE CHANCE OF THUNDER GOING FOR THIS LINE. DEEP
WIND SHEAR DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE PRESENT WITH THE LINE...THOUGH
THERE IS SOME 0-3KM SHEAR AT ABOUT 20-30KTS THAT COULD HELP WITH
GETTING SOME GUSTS OUT OF THE SHOWERS/STORMS...BUT NOTHING THAT
WOULD BE PUSHING SEVERE LIMITS.

WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW.

HAVE KEPT A SMALL CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE
AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY AS A SECONDARY SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROUNDS THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MAIN CLOSED MID LEVEL TROUGH. THERMAL
PROFILES ARE SHOWING SOME WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPING BETWEEN
850-700MB WHICH SHOULD AT LEAST LEAD TO A CU FIELD FORMING AND
PERHAPS SOME SHOWERS. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK AROUND
0C...SO WEDNESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER DAY THAT WILL BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

OMEGA BLOCK SETS UP FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AND WILL
CREATE DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND TOWARD THE WEEKEND AS
SURFACE WINDS COME BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTH ONCE THE RIDGE AXIS
PASSES TO THE EAST. LOWER CONFIDENCE COMES IN INTO THE WEEKEND IN
REGARDS TO A COLD FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO STALL OUT IN SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN ON BOTH THE 02.00Z GFS AND ECMWF MODEL RUNS. THE ECMWF
PUSHES THIS FRONT TO THE SOUTH QUICKLY WHILE THE GFS LINGERS IT
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

LOOKING FOR THE MAINLY VFR-LEVEL CLOUD DECK OVER THE SOUTHEAST TO
CONTINUE TO ERODE/DROP SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH THE DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING
LOW PRESSURE.

LOOKING FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...WITH SOME SCATTERED TO BROKEN DIURNAL CU EXPECTED INLAND
LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOWING BASES AROUND 5K FT. SKIES CLEAR WITH LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT.

MARINE...

QUIET START TO THE FORECAST WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS EASING AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN...THEN BACKING NORTHWEST TONIGHT. WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL RISE TUESDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. OFFSHORE FETCH WILL KEEP
WAVE HEIGHTS LOW. EXPECT SHOWERS...WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER...
TUESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE AREA. WINDS VEER TO
THE NORTH BEHIND THE LOW WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF REACHING SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DDV/COLLAR
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...REM
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HALBACH





000
FXUS63 KMKX 020820
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
320 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH

SHORT WAVE ENERGY PASSING TO THE WEST AND SOUTH AROUND BROAD TROUGH
BRINGS A WEAK 500 MB TROUGH AXIS THROUGH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...PUSHING SOUTH OVERNIGHT. 700 MB AND 850 MB
COLD POOLS LINGER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON CREATING SOME INSTABILITY
WITH DAYTIME HEATING. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING SOME WEAK CAPE
...50J/KG OR LESS...WITH MOISTURE TOO MEAGER FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN
SCATTERED TO BROKEN DIURNAL CU INLAND FROM THE LAKE.

GFS BRINGS A RIBBON OF LIGHT QPF ORIENTED NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...CENTERED ALONG A FOND DU
LAC...MADISON TO DARLINGTON LINE...BUT PCPN APPEARS TO BE TIED TO 2-
METER DEW POINTS THAT ARE 3 TO 5 DEGREES HIGHER THAN THE OTHER
OPERATIONAL MODELS...AND 5 TO 7 DEGREES HIGHER THAN THE MAV MOS
GUIDANCE. WITH DRY NORTH TO NORTHEAST FEED AND MIXING UP TO NEAR
800MB DROPPING DEW POINTS INTO THE UPPER 30S IF NOT LOWER...FEEL
NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW SPRINKLES POSSIBLE AT MOST OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON.

BASED ON 925 MB TEMPERATURES THE MIXING ALSO BRINGS HIGHS IN THE LOW
60S WELL INLAND...WHICH ARE TEMPERED BY EXPECTED DIURNAL CU. WENT
BELOW GUIDANCE IN THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES DUE TO ONSHORE WINDS.

HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FOR TONIGHT CLEARING SKIES AND BRINGING LIGHT
WEST WINDS. 925 MB TEMPS ON A SLOW RISE THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH
ENOUGH MIXING TO PREVENT DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG INVERSION SO
CONSENSUS LOW TEMPERATURES AROUND 40 EAST AND THE LOWER 40S WEST
LOOK GOOD.

.TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TUESDAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH
OUT OF ONTARIO. A WEST TO EAST ORIENTED LOW LEVEL THERMAL AXIS
WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AND SHOULD HELP MAX TEMPERATURES GET TO AROUND 70 BEFORE THEY DROP
AS THE COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH. PERHAPS ANOTHER SETUP FOR A
PNEUMONIA FRONT...16F TEMPERATURE DROPS IN ONE HOUR OR LESS...WITH
LAKE MICHIGAN WATER TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S.

A BRIEF (HOUR TO TWO HOURS LONG) BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS...AND
POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS...IS EXPECTED TO COME THROUGH AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. QUITE A FEW FAVORABLE FORCING MECHANISMS IN PLACE FOR
THIS BAND WHICH INCLUDES LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS...A 500MB
SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE 250MB JET
STREAK ALL COMING INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AS THE COLD FRONT ENTERS
FROM THE NORTH. THIS STRONG FORCING LEADS TO HIGH VALUES OF
UPRIGHT OMEGA FROM THE SURFACE ON UP TO AROUND 400MB. THE
INSTABILITY PROFILE IS SKINNY BUT SHOULD BE AIDED BY THE STRONG
FORCING TO KEEP THE CHANCE OF THUNDER GOING FOR THIS LINE. DEEP
WIND SHEAR DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE PRESENT WITH THE LINE...THOUGH
THERE IS SOME 0-3KM SHEAR AT ABOUT 20-30KTS THAT COULD HELP WITH
GETTING SOME GUSTS OUT OF THE SHOWERS/STORMS...BUT NOTHING THAT
WOULD BE PUSHING SEVERE LIMITS.

.WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW.

HAVE KEPT A SMALL CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE
AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY AS A SECONDARY SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROUNDS THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MAIN CLOSED MID LEVEL TROUGH. THERMAL
PROFILES ARE SHOWING SOME WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPING BETWEEN
850-700MB WHICH SHOULD AT LEAST LEAD TO A CU FIELD FORMING AND
PERHAPS SOME SHOWERS. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK AROUND
0C...SO WEDNESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER DAY THAT WILL BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

.THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

OMEGA BLOCK SETS UP FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AND WILL
CREATE DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND TOWARD THE WEEKEND AS
SURFACE WINDS COME BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTH ONCE THE RIDGE AXIS
PASSES TO THE EAST. LOWER CONFIDENCE COMES IN INTO THE WEEKEND IN
REGARDS TO A COLD FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO STALL OUT IN SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN ON BOTH THE 02.00Z GFS AND ECMWF MODEL RUNS. THE ECMWF
PUSHES THIS FRONT TO THE SOUTH QUICKLY WHILE THE GFS LINGERS IT
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

LOOKING FOR THE MAINLY VFR-LEVEL CLOUD DECK OVER THE SOUTHEAST TO
CONTINUE TO ERODE/DROP SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH THE DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING
LOW PRESSURE.

LOOKING FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...WITH SOME SCATTERED TO BROKEN DIURNAL CU EXPECTED INLAND
LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOWING BASES AROUND 5K FT. SKIES CLEAR WITH LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...

QUIET START TO THE FORECAST WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS EASING AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN...THEN BACKING NORTHWEST TONIGHT. WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL RISE TUESDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. OFFSHORE FETCH WILL KEEP
WAVE HEIGHTS LOW. EXPECT SHOWERS...WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER...
TUESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE AREA. WINDS VEER TO
THE NORTH BEHIND THE LOW WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF REACHING SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...REM
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HALBACH





000
FXUS63 KMKX 020820
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
320 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH

SHORT WAVE ENERGY PASSING TO THE WEST AND SOUTH AROUND BROAD TROUGH
BRINGS A WEAK 500 MB TROUGH AXIS THROUGH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...PUSHING SOUTH OVERNIGHT. 700 MB AND 850 MB
COLD POOLS LINGER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON CREATING SOME INSTABILITY
WITH DAYTIME HEATING. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING SOME WEAK CAPE
...50J/KG OR LESS...WITH MOISTURE TOO MEAGER FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN
SCATTERED TO BROKEN DIURNAL CU INLAND FROM THE LAKE.

GFS BRINGS A RIBBON OF LIGHT QPF ORIENTED NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...CENTERED ALONG A FOND DU
LAC...MADISON TO DARLINGTON LINE...BUT PCPN APPEARS TO BE TIED TO 2-
METER DEW POINTS THAT ARE 3 TO 5 DEGREES HIGHER THAN THE OTHER
OPERATIONAL MODELS...AND 5 TO 7 DEGREES HIGHER THAN THE MAV MOS
GUIDANCE. WITH DRY NORTH TO NORTHEAST FEED AND MIXING UP TO NEAR
800MB DROPPING DEW POINTS INTO THE UPPER 30S IF NOT LOWER...FEEL
NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW SPRINKLES POSSIBLE AT MOST OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON.

BASED ON 925 MB TEMPERATURES THE MIXING ALSO BRINGS HIGHS IN THE LOW
60S WELL INLAND...WHICH ARE TEMPERED BY EXPECTED DIURNAL CU. WENT
BELOW GUIDANCE IN THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES DUE TO ONSHORE WINDS.

HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FOR TONIGHT CLEARING SKIES AND BRINGING LIGHT
WEST WINDS. 925 MB TEMPS ON A SLOW RISE THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH
ENOUGH MIXING TO PREVENT DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG INVERSION SO
CONSENSUS LOW TEMPERATURES AROUND 40 EAST AND THE LOWER 40S WEST
LOOK GOOD.

.TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TUESDAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH
OUT OF ONTARIO. A WEST TO EAST ORIENTED LOW LEVEL THERMAL AXIS
WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AND SHOULD HELP MAX TEMPERATURES GET TO AROUND 70 BEFORE THEY DROP
AS THE COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH. PERHAPS ANOTHER SETUP FOR A
PNEUMONIA FRONT...16F TEMPERATURE DROPS IN ONE HOUR OR LESS...WITH
LAKE MICHIGAN WATER TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S.

A BRIEF (HOUR TO TWO HOURS LONG) BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS...AND
POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS...IS EXPECTED TO COME THROUGH AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. QUITE A FEW FAVORABLE FORCING MECHANISMS IN PLACE FOR
THIS BAND WHICH INCLUDES LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS...A 500MB
SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE 250MB JET
STREAK ALL COMING INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AS THE COLD FRONT ENTERS
FROM THE NORTH. THIS STRONG FORCING LEADS TO HIGH VALUES OF
UPRIGHT OMEGA FROM THE SURFACE ON UP TO AROUND 400MB. THE
INSTABILITY PROFILE IS SKINNY BUT SHOULD BE AIDED BY THE STRONG
FORCING TO KEEP THE CHANCE OF THUNDER GOING FOR THIS LINE. DEEP
WIND SHEAR DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE PRESENT WITH THE LINE...THOUGH
THERE IS SOME 0-3KM SHEAR AT ABOUT 20-30KTS THAT COULD HELP WITH
GETTING SOME GUSTS OUT OF THE SHOWERS/STORMS...BUT NOTHING THAT
WOULD BE PUSHING SEVERE LIMITS.

.WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW.

HAVE KEPT A SMALL CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE
AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY AS A SECONDARY SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROUNDS THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MAIN CLOSED MID LEVEL TROUGH. THERMAL
PROFILES ARE SHOWING SOME WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPING BETWEEN
850-700MB WHICH SHOULD AT LEAST LEAD TO A CU FIELD FORMING AND
PERHAPS SOME SHOWERS. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK AROUND
0C...SO WEDNESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER DAY THAT WILL BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

.THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

OMEGA BLOCK SETS UP FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AND WILL
CREATE DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND TOWARD THE WEEKEND AS
SURFACE WINDS COME BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTH ONCE THE RIDGE AXIS
PASSES TO THE EAST. LOWER CONFIDENCE COMES IN INTO THE WEEKEND IN
REGARDS TO A COLD FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO STALL OUT IN SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN ON BOTH THE 02.00Z GFS AND ECMWF MODEL RUNS. THE ECMWF
PUSHES THIS FRONT TO THE SOUTH QUICKLY WHILE THE GFS LINGERS IT
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

LOOKING FOR THE MAINLY VFR-LEVEL CLOUD DECK OVER THE SOUTHEAST TO
CONTINUE TO ERODE/DROP SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH THE DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING
LOW PRESSURE.

LOOKING FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...WITH SOME SCATTERED TO BROKEN DIURNAL CU EXPECTED INLAND
LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOWING BASES AROUND 5K FT. SKIES CLEAR WITH LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...

QUIET START TO THE FORECAST WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS EASING AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN...THEN BACKING NORTHWEST TONIGHT. WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL RISE TUESDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. OFFSHORE FETCH WILL KEEP
WAVE HEIGHTS LOW. EXPECT SHOWERS...WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER...
TUESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE AREA. WINDS VEER TO
THE NORTH BEHIND THE LOW WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF REACHING SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...REM
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HALBACH





000
FXUS63 KMKX 020138
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
838 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.UPDATE...

A STRONG/WELL DEFINED MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE CIRCULATION IS ROLLING
ACROSS CENTRAL IL...OVER THE PEORIA/BLOOMINGTON AREA...HEADED FOR
FORT WAYNE INDIANA OVERNIGHT. IMPRESSIVE FRONTOGENESIS AND
DEFORMATION IS MAINLY FOCUSED ACROSS FAR NORTHERN ILLINOIS INTO
THE SRN TIER OF COUNTIES ALONG THE STATE LINE. THE RAIN IS
INTENSIFYING OVER ILLINOIS AND DRYING UP OVER WISCONSIN AS THE
FORCING BECOMES MORE FOCUSED AS THE SHORT WAVE PUSHES EAST. SOME
OF THE BETTER RAINFALL COULD MAKE IT INTO SOUTHEAST WALWORTH AND
KENOSHA COUNTIES THIS EVENING. LOTS OF DRIZZLE EXTENDS NORTH INTO
OZAUKEE/WASHINGTON COUNTIES...BECOMING MORE SHOWERY SOUTH OF
MILWAUKEE. LOOK FOR THE PRECIP TO WIND DOWN BY OR SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH CLEARING SPREADING NORTH TO SOUTH IN THE WAKE OF THE
SHORT WAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE.

MONDAY STARTS OUT SUNNY FOLLOWED BY INCREASING CLOUDS. TEMPS
SHOULD MAKE IT INTO THE 60S...EXCEPT FOR YOU FOLKS NEAR LAKE
MICHIGAN.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...

IFR CIGS ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN WILL IMPROVE TOWARD MIDNIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE
OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS SCOOTS QUICKLY EAST AND WE GET INTO A DRIER
FLOW. THE SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORT WAVE SHOULD HELP TO
IMPROVE CONDITIONS QUICKLY. CLEARING SKIES WILL WORK NORTH TO
SOUTH OVERNIGHT. KMSN SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. NORTHERLY WINDS KICKING IN
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT COULD RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/

TONIGHT AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE A BIT WITH RAIN CHANCES LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. THE UPPER WAVE IS PROGGED TO COME
THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH CURRENT RADAR REFLECTIVITIES EXPANDING
IN THE VICINITY OF THE SHORTWAVE. THE NAM AND GFS KEEP MUCH OF THE
PRECIP TO THE SOUTH OF THE WI/IL BORDER...WHILE THE ECMWF AND
CANADIAN ARE FARTHER NORTH AND WETTER. MESOSCALE MODELS SEEM TO
AGREE WITH THE WETTER SOLUTIONS...SO KEPT LIKELY GOING IN THE FAR
SOUTH. MIGHT NEED TO BUMP POPS UP THOUGH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS
GIVEN LATEST RADAR AND HRRR TRENDS. RAIN SHOULD EXIT THE SOUTHEAST
BY MIDNIGHT OR SO...WITH CLEARING SKIES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BEHIND
THE DEPARTING SYSTEM.

SHOULD BE A PLEASANT DAY MONDAY WITH SUNSHINE TO START THE
DAY...THOUGH WILL SEE A GOOD AMOUNT OF AFTERNOON CUMULUS AWAY FROM
THE LAKE. SHOULD SEE TEMPS RETURN TO AROUND NORMAL...EXCEPT FOR
COOLER NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

HIGH PRESSURE NUDGES INTO THE REGION FOR MONDAY NIGHT AS MID LEVEL
TROUGH DEPARTS SOUTHERN WI. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY LOOK MILD WITH
SOME SUN. THEN PRECIP LOOKS LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT ALONG A SOUTHWARD
MOVING COLD FRONT. THERE IS GOOD SYNOPTIC FORCING FROM A STRONG
VORTICITY MAXIMUM WITHIN A DEEP GREAT LAKES TROUGH AND UPPER
DIVERGENCE FROM THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 90KT JET. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. THE NAM IS THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH CAPE SHOWING A FEW HUNDRED J/KG WHILE OTHER
MODELS SHOW MUCH LESS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT AND
BRISK NORTH WINDS. THE NAM IS AN OUTLIER SHOWING PRECIP LINGERING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE UPPER LOW REMAINING OVER SOUTHEAST WI
SO HAVE LOW POPS THROUGH THE DAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A MID
LEVEL RIDGE. WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE CHILLY THEN A THERMAL RIDGE
SETTLES IN BRINGING MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES. THE CANADIAN AND GFS
SHOW SOME PRECIP FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING BUT FORCING
IS WEAK SO KEPT FORECAST DRY.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIP SOMETIME SATURDAY AFTERNOON TO
SUNDAY ALONG A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHED WEST TO EAST
ACROSS SOUTHERN WI. ADDED A CHANCE OF THUNDER BUT INSTABILITY
DEPENDS ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES COOL SUNDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN SUNDAY AS AN UPPER
LOW DRIFTS TOWARD THE REGION.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

A LARGE AREA OF CLEARING CONTINUES TO EXPAND THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH
NOW SEEING SOME LOWER CLOUDS ADVECTING BACK IN FROM THE EAST. STILL
SEEMS THE SOUTH HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN OR NEAR MVFR
CONDITIONS INTO THE EVENING...WITH MAINLY VFR NORTH. SHOULD BE VFR
ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BY EARLY IN THE NIGHT...WITH VFR
PERSISTING THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

STILL LOOKS LIKE SOME RAIN IN AT LEAST SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. SHOULD SEE
RAIN WIND DOWN IN THE SOUTHEAST BY MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

MARINE...

WIND GUSTS ARE STILL NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THIS
AFTERNOON...SO WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY GOING FOR NOW. DID CHANGE THE
END OF THE SOUTHERN ZONE ADVISORY TO 00Z...AS WINDS SHOULD BE EASING
BY THEN.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DAVIS
TONIGHT/MONDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...DDV
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MARQUARDT





000
FXUS63 KMKX 012035
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
335 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.TONIGHT AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE A BIT WITH RAIN CHANCES LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. THE UPPER WAVE IS PROGGED TO COME
THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH CURRENT RADAR REFLECTIVITIES EXPANDING
IN THE VICINITY OF THE SHORTWAVE. THE NAM AND GFS KEEP MUCH OF THE
PRECIP TO THE SOUTH OF THE WI/IL BORDER...WHILE THE ECMWF AND
CANADIAN ARE FARTHER NORTH AND WETTER. MESOSCALE MODELS SEEM TO
AGREE WITH THE WETTER SOLUTIONS...SO KEPT LIKELY GOING IN THE FAR
SOUTH. MIGHT NEED TO BUMP POPS UP THOUGH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS
GIVEN LATEST RADAR AND HRRR TRENDS. RAIN SHOULD EXIT THE SOUTHEAST
BY MIDNIGHT OR SO...WITH CLEARING SKIES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BEHIND
THE DEPARTING SYSTEM.

SHOULD BE A PLEASANT DAY MONDAY WITH SUNSHINE TO START THE
DAY...THOUGH WILL SEE A GOOD AMOUNT OF AFTERNOON CUMULUS AWAY FROM
THE LAKE. SHOULD SEE TEMPS RETURN TO AROUND NORMAL...EXCEPT FOR
COOLER NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN.

.MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

HIGH PRESSURE NUDGES INTO THE REGION FOR MONDAY NIGHT AS MID LEVEL
TROUGH DEPARTS SOUTHERN WI. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY LOOK MILD WITH
SOME SUN. THEN PRECIP LOOKS LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT ALONG A SOUTHWARD
MOVING COLD FRONT. THERE IS GOOD SYNOPTIC FORCING FROM A STRONG
VORTICITY MAXIMUM WITHIN A DEEP GREAT LAKES TROUGH AND UPPER
DIVERGENCE FROM THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 90KT JET. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. THE NAM IS THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH CAPE SHOWING A FEW HUNDRED J/KG WHILE OTHER
MODELS SHOW MUCH LESS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT AND
BRISK NORTH WINDS. THE NAM IS AN OUTLIER SHOWING PRECIP LINGERING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE UPPER LOW REMAINING OVER SOUTHEAST WI
SO HAVE LOW POPS THROUGH THE DAY.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A MID
LEVEL RIDGE. WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE CHILLY THEN A THERMAL RIDGE
SETTLES IN BRINGING MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES. THE CANADIAN AND GFS
SHOW SOME PRECIP FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING BUT FORCING
IS WEAK SO KEPT FORECAST DRY.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIP SOMETIME SATURDAY AFTERNOON TO
SUNDAY ALONG A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHED WEST TO EAST
ACROSS SOUTHERN WI. ADDED A CHANCE OF THUNDER BUT INSTABILITY
DEPENDS ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES COOL SUNDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN SUNDAY AS AN UPPER
LOW DRIFTS TOWARD THE REGION.


&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

A LARGE AREA OF CLEARING CONTINUES TO EXPAND THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH
NOW SEEING SOME LOWER CLOUDS ADVECTING BACK IN FROM THE EAST. STILL
SEEMS THE SOUTH HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN OR NEAR MVFR
CONDITIONS INTO THE EVENING...WITH MAINLY VFR NORTH. SHOULD BE VFR
ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BY EARLY IN THE NIGHT...WITH VFR
PERSISTING THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

STILL LOOKS LIKE SOME RAIN IN AT LEAST SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. SHOULD SEE
RAIN WIND DOWN IN THE SOUTHEAST BY MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.MARINE...

WIND GUSTS ARE STILL NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THIS
AFTERNOON...SO WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY GOING FOR NOW. DID CHANGE THE
END OF THE SOUTHERN ZONE ADVISORY TO 00Z...AS WINDS SHOULD BE EASING
BY THEN.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

TONIGHT/MONDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...DDV
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MARQUARDT





000
FXUS63 KMKX 012035
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
335 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.TONIGHT AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE A BIT WITH RAIN CHANCES LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. THE UPPER WAVE IS PROGGED TO COME
THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH CURRENT RADAR REFLECTIVITIES EXPANDING
IN THE VICINITY OF THE SHORTWAVE. THE NAM AND GFS KEEP MUCH OF THE
PRECIP TO THE SOUTH OF THE WI/IL BORDER...WHILE THE ECMWF AND
CANADIAN ARE FARTHER NORTH AND WETTER. MESOSCALE MODELS SEEM TO
AGREE WITH THE WETTER SOLUTIONS...SO KEPT LIKELY GOING IN THE FAR
SOUTH. MIGHT NEED TO BUMP POPS UP THOUGH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS
GIVEN LATEST RADAR AND HRRR TRENDS. RAIN SHOULD EXIT THE SOUTHEAST
BY MIDNIGHT OR SO...WITH CLEARING SKIES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BEHIND
THE DEPARTING SYSTEM.

SHOULD BE A PLEASANT DAY MONDAY WITH SUNSHINE TO START THE
DAY...THOUGH WILL SEE A GOOD AMOUNT OF AFTERNOON CUMULUS AWAY FROM
THE LAKE. SHOULD SEE TEMPS RETURN TO AROUND NORMAL...EXCEPT FOR
COOLER NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN.

.MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

HIGH PRESSURE NUDGES INTO THE REGION FOR MONDAY NIGHT AS MID LEVEL
TROUGH DEPARTS SOUTHERN WI. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY LOOK MILD WITH
SOME SUN. THEN PRECIP LOOKS LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT ALONG A SOUTHWARD
MOVING COLD FRONT. THERE IS GOOD SYNOPTIC FORCING FROM A STRONG
VORTICITY MAXIMUM WITHIN A DEEP GREAT LAKES TROUGH AND UPPER
DIVERGENCE FROM THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 90KT JET. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. THE NAM IS THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH CAPE SHOWING A FEW HUNDRED J/KG WHILE OTHER
MODELS SHOW MUCH LESS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT AND
BRISK NORTH WINDS. THE NAM IS AN OUTLIER SHOWING PRECIP LINGERING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE UPPER LOW REMAINING OVER SOUTHEAST WI
SO HAVE LOW POPS THROUGH THE DAY.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A MID
LEVEL RIDGE. WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE CHILLY THEN A THERMAL RIDGE
SETTLES IN BRINGING MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES. THE CANADIAN AND GFS
SHOW SOME PRECIP FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING BUT FORCING
IS WEAK SO KEPT FORECAST DRY.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIP SOMETIME SATURDAY AFTERNOON TO
SUNDAY ALONG A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHED WEST TO EAST
ACROSS SOUTHERN WI. ADDED A CHANCE OF THUNDER BUT INSTABILITY
DEPENDS ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES COOL SUNDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN SUNDAY AS AN UPPER
LOW DRIFTS TOWARD THE REGION.


&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

A LARGE AREA OF CLEARING CONTINUES TO EXPAND THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH
NOW SEEING SOME LOWER CLOUDS ADVECTING BACK IN FROM THE EAST. STILL
SEEMS THE SOUTH HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN OR NEAR MVFR
CONDITIONS INTO THE EVENING...WITH MAINLY VFR NORTH. SHOULD BE VFR
ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BY EARLY IN THE NIGHT...WITH VFR
PERSISTING THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

STILL LOOKS LIKE SOME RAIN IN AT LEAST SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. SHOULD SEE
RAIN WIND DOWN IN THE SOUTHEAST BY MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.MARINE...

WIND GUSTS ARE STILL NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THIS
AFTERNOON...SO WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY GOING FOR NOW. DID CHANGE THE
END OF THE SOUTHERN ZONE ADVISORY TO 00Z...AS WINDS SHOULD BE EASING
BY THEN.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

TONIGHT/MONDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...DDV
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MARQUARDT





000
FXUS63 KMKX 011513 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1013 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.UPDATE...

THERE ARE A FEW AREAS OF DRIZZLE ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THIS
MORNING...BUT OTHERWISE MOST PLACES ARE DRY. SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY
DRY INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLY MOVING
INTO THE SOUTHWEST MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THE LATEST NAM HAS
SHIFTED SOUTH WITH THE RAINFALL...KEEPING MUCH OF THE RAIN SOUTH
OF THE WI/IL BORDER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STILL NEED TO SEE
OTHER 12Z GUIDANCE BEFORE CONSIDERING CHANGES TO THE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

CURRENT CONDITIONS STILL HAVE VFR CONDITIONS NORTH...TRANSITIONING
TO MVFR/IFR IN THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. THIS SETUP WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH VFR CIGS EVENTUALLY PUSHING
SOUTHWARD LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. SHOULD BE VFR ACROSS
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BY EARLY IN THE NIGHT...WITH VFR PERSISTING
THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

WILL SEE A FEW SHOWERS IN THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.
LATEST NAM HAS TRENDED DRIER FOR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. WILL HAVE TO
CONSIDER LOWERING PRECIP CHANCES IF THE REST OF 12Z GUIDANCE ALSO
COMES IN DRIER.

&&

.MARINE...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LOOK BORDERLINE FOR TODAY NORTH OF
MILWAUKEE BUT WILL LET THE ADVISORY CONTINUE DUE TO WAVE ACTION.
EXPECT A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON SOUTH OF
MILWAUKEE. BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL RESULT IN HIGH WAVES THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. THE ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES MAY NEED TO BE
CANCELLED EARLY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH

NOT MUCH GOING ON WITH WEAK VORT MAX LIFTING NE FROM W CENTRAL IL
THAT REACHES THE SOUTHERN TIP OF LAKE MICHIGAN BY 12Z. ELONGATED
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI ACROSS
ILLINOIS INTO CENTRAL INDIANA. SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE
FAR NORTHERN CWA IN ZONE OF 850MB-700MB CONVERGENCE AND
FRONTOGENESIS...WITH PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE OVER THE REST OF
THE FORECAST AREA.

SHOWERS WILL BECOME ISOLATED...IF NOT TOTALLY END...THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON AS FRONTOGENESIS WEAKENS. HOWEVER FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW A SATURATED COLUMN BELOW 10K FT WITH SOME WEAK OMEGA
SO EXPECTED PATCHY DRIZZLE AND SPRINKLES OR A VERY LIGHT SHOWER
WARRANT KEEPING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEEING A HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH OF
QPF.

BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS RETURNS WITH FORCING WITH SHORT WAVE
TROUGH. OMEGA MAX CROSSES AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH...WITH THE MAIN VORTICITY MAX
CROSSING NORTHERN ILLINOIS. A TIGHT GRADIENT OF POPS ACROSS THE CWA
WITH LIKELIES IN THE SOUTH CLOSE TO THE STRONGEST OMEGA...WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE NORTH. PCPN COMES TO AN END
BY 06Z MONDAY WITH SUBSIDENCE BEHIND SHORT WAVE.

CLOUDS AND NEUTRAL TEMPERATURE ADVECTION HAVE HELD OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES UP IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. CHANNEL OF COOL 925 MB TEMPS
ON NORTH SIDE OF BROAD DOUBLE LOW CIRCULATION SAGS SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE DAY AND MODIFY SLIGHTLY UPWARD AS MAIN 925 MB LOW TRACKS AHEAD
OF THE SHORT WAVE ACROSS CENTRAL IL. SKIES WILL BE CLOUDY BUT WITH
ONLY SPOTTY PRECIPITATION SHOULD SEE HIGHS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
SATURDAY. CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT WILL BRING LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S.

MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

A COUPLE OF SHOTS AT RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO COME OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES COMING TUESDAY NIGHT.

FOR MONDAY...A CLOSED MID LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY IN THE 4 CORNERS
REGION OF THE SOUTHWEST US WILL PROPAGATE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH
THE CENTRAL US ON MONDAY. A DEEPER TROUGH GETS CARVED OUT IN THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE US AS THIS FEATURE MOVES IN...WHICH SHOULD
HELP IT MAINLY STAY TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. MOST OF THE MODELS
KEEP SOUTHERN WISCONSIN ON THE DRY SIDE THOUGH THE 01.00Z
GFS/ECMWF DOES PAINT SOME SMALL QPF BETWEEN 18-00Z. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FROM THE GFS SHOW A SHALLOW LAYER OF INSTABILITY BETWEEN
800-700MB IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH WOULD HELP PRODUCE THE RAIN
SHOWERS. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON TRENDS FOR THIS PERIOD.

THE NEXT...AND BETTER...CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS COMES ON TUESDAY
NIGHT AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH DIVES SOUTH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA AND DRAGS A SURFACE COLD FRONT DOWN ALONG WITH IT. BEFORE
THE FRONT/RAIN SHOWERS MOVE IN TUESDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL PICK UP
OUT OF THE WEST AND HELP TO USHER WARMER AIR IN FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. AS FOR THE RAIN
SHOWERS...MOISTURE IS DECENT ENOUGH WITH PW AROUND 0.80 INCHES
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH A SKINNY CAPE PROFILE THAT MAY BE OVERDONE
DUE TO GUIDANCE PUSHING SURFACE DEW POINTS INTO THE UPPER 40S/LOW
50S. LAPSE RATES/FORCING IS GOOD...SO HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR THUNDER IN THE FORECAST.

THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

ANOTHER OMEGA BLOCK SETS UP ACROSS THE US WITH WISCONSIN BEING IN
THE RIDGE PORTION OF THE BLOCK FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE FOR THE WEEK WITH A GRADUAL WARMING OF
TEMPERATURES GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE WARMER AIR STARTS TO
SPILL IN ON FRIDAY AS THE EASTERN TROUGH INCHES TOWARD THE COAST
AND THE RIDGE SETS UP. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A COLD FRONT THAT
MOVES THROUGH SOMETIME DURING THE WEEKEND...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
VERY HIGH WITH THAT FEATURE AT THIS POINT.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

THE LINE BETWEEN IFR AND MVFR CIGS REMAINS VERY FLUID...THOUGH
MAJORITY OF HI-RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST IFR CIGS WILL REMAIN JUST
SOUTH OF THE I-94 CORRIDOR AND ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE THROUGH
THE MORNING THEN SAG SOUTH/DISSIPATE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL LINGER OVER THE SOUTH HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA...AND WILL ALSO SEE PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG UNTIL LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...WHEN BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS CROSSES SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN...WITH SHOWERS LIKELY IN THE SOUTH HALF. SHOWERS COME TO
AND END BY 06Z WITH CIGS SCATTERING OUT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
BRINGING VFR CONDITIONS TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT.

MARINE...

NO CHANGE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS CURRENT FORECAST WINDS KEEP
WAVE HEIGHTS UP THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN SUBSIDING BELOW
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS BY EARLY EVENING IN THE NORTHERN ZONES AND MID-
EVENING IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ645-646.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643-644.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DDV/MARQUARDT
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...REM
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HALBACH





000
FXUS63 KMKX 010827
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
327 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH

NOT MUCH GOING ON WITH WEAK VORT MAX LIFTING NE FROM W CENTRAL IL
THAT REACHES THE SOUTHERN TIP OF LAKE MICHIGAN BY 12Z. ELONGATED
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI ACROSS
ILLINOIS INTO CENTRAL INDIANA. SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE
FAR NORTHERN CWA IN ZONE OF 850MB-700MB CONVERGENCE AND
FRONTOGENESIS...WITH PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE OVER THE REST OF
THE FORECAST AREA.

SHOWERS WILL BECOME ISOLATED...IF NOT TOTALLY END...THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON AS FRONTOGENESIS WEAKENS. HOWEVER FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW A SATURATED COLUMN BELOW 10K FT WITH SOME WEAK OMEGA
SO EXPECTED PATCHY DRIZZLE AND SPRINKLES OR A VERY LIGHT SHOWER
WARRANT KEEPING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEEING A HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH OF
QPF.

BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS RETURNS WITH FORCING WITH SHORT WAVE
TROUGH. OMEGA MAX CROSSES AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH...WITH THE MAIN VORTICITY MAX
CROSSING NORTHERN ILLINOIS. A TIGHT GRADIENT OF POPS ACROSS THE CWA
WITH LIKELIES IN THE SOUTH CLOSE TO THE STRONGEST OMEGA...WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE NORTH. PCPN COMES TO AN END
BY 06Z MONDAY WITH SUBSIDENCE BEHIND SHORT WAVE.

CLOUDS AND NEUTRAL TEMPERATURE ADVECTION HAVE HELD OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES UP IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. CHANNEL OF COOL 925 MB TEMPS
ON NORTH SIDE OF BROAD DOUBLE LOW CIRCULATION SAGS SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE DAY AND MODIFY SLIGHTLY UPWARD AS MAIN 925 MB LOW TRACKS AHEAD
OF THE SHORT WAVE ACROSS CENTRAL IL. SKIES WILL BE CLOUDY BUT WITH
ONLY SPOTTY PRECIPITATION SHOULD SEE HIGHS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
SATURDAY. CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT WILL BRING LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S.

.MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

A COUPLE OF SHOTS AT RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO COME OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES COMING TUESDAY NIGHT.

FOR MONDAY...A CLOSED MID LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY IN THE 4 CORNERS
REGION OF THE SOUTHWEST US WILL PROPAGATE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH
THE CENTRAL US ON MONDAY. A DEEPER TROUGH GETS CARVED OUT IN THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE US AS THIS FEATURE MOVES IN...WHICH SHOULD
HELP IT MAINLY STAY TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. MOST OF THE MODELS
KEEP SOUTHERN WISCONSIN ON THE DRY SIDE THOUGH THE 01.00Z
GFS/ECMWF DOES PAINT SOME SMALL QPF BETWEEN 18-00Z. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FROM THE GFS SHOW A SHALLOW LAYER OF INSTABILITY BETWEEN
800-700MB IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH WOULD HELP PRODUCE THE RAIN
SHOWERS. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON TRENDS FOR THIS PERIOD.

THE NEXT...AND BETTER...CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS COMES ON TUESDAY
NIGHT AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH DIVES SOUTH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA AND DRAGS A SURFACE COLD FRONT DOWN ALONG WITH IT. BEFORE
THE FRONT/RAIN SHOWERS MOVE IN TUESDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL PICK UP
OUT OF THE WEST AND HELP TO USHER WARMER AIR IN FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. AS FOR THE RAIN
SHOWERS...MOISTURE IS DECENT ENOUGH WITH PW AROUND 0.80 INCHES
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH A SKINNY CAPE PROFILE THAT MAY BE OVERDONE
DUE TO GUIDANCE PUSHING SURFACE DEW POINTS INTO THE UPPER 40S/LOW
50S. LAPSE RATES/FORCING IS GOOD...SO HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR THUNDER IN THE FORECAST.


.THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

ANOTHER OMEGA BLOCK SETS UP ACROSS THE US WITH WISCONSIN BEING IN
THE RIDGE PORTION OF THE BLOCK FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE FOR THE WEEK WITH A GRADUAL WARMING OF
TEMPERATURES GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE WARMER AIR STARTS TO
SPILL IN ON FRIDAY AS THE EASTERN TROUGH INCHES TOWARD THE COAST
AND THE RIDGE SETS UP. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A COLD FRONT THAT
MOVES THROUGH SOMETIME DURING THE WEEKEND...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
VERY HIGH WITH THAT FEATURE AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

THE LINE BETWEEN IFR AND MVFR CIGS REMAINS VERY FLUID...THOUGH
MAJORITY OF HI-RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST IFR CIGS WILL REMAIN JUST
SOUTH OF THE I-94 CORRIDOR AND ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE THROUGH
THE MORNING THEN SAG SOUTH/DISSIPATE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL LINGER OVER THE SOUTH HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA...AND WILL ALSO SEE PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG UNTIL LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...WHEN BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS CROSSES SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN...WITH SHOWERS LIKELY IN THE SOUTH HALF. SHOWERS COME TO
AND END BY 06Z WITH CIGS SCATTERING OUT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
BRINGING VFR CONDITIONS TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...

NO CHANGE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS CURRENT FORECAST WINDS KEEP
WAVE HEIGHTS UP THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN SUBSIDING BELOW
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS BY EARLY EVENING IN THE NORTHERN ZONES AND MID-
EVENING IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ645-646.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643-644.

&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...REM
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HALBACH





000
FXUS63 KMKX 010138
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
838 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.UPDATE...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE THAT EJECTED OUT
OF THE PARENT CIRCULATION OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS HEADING QUICKLY
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. THERE IS RAPID DRYING OF THE
MID LEVELS. WE/RE SEEING THE ASSOCIATED RAIN ALSO DIMINISHING
ACROSS THE AREA AS IT LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST. THIS TREND
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINS DEEP AND ONCE WE GET OUT FROM UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE FROM
THE EXITING SHORTWAVE...WE SHOULD SEE SOME SHOWERS FROM TIME TO
TIME AND PLENTY OF DRIZZLE. WE MAY NEED TO BUMP POPS FOR TOMORROW
AS THAT PARENT SHORTWAVE OVER THE PLAINS TRACKS ACROSS ILLINOIS
LATER ON SUNDAY. THE MAIN FRONTOGENESIS LAYS OUT ACROSS NRN IL AND
SRN WI AND WILL LIKELY BRING THE AREA ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN. WE
HAVE HIGH POPS IN OUR WESTERN CWA ALREADY...JUST MAY NEED TO
STRETCH THOSE EAST. WILL WAIT FOR NEW GUIDANCE BEFORE MAKING ANY
ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...

IF YOU HAVEN/T NOTICED FROM THE NUMEROUS TAF UPDATES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THERE IS A SERIOUS LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN
CLOUD TRENDS...SPECIFICALLY ON WHEN THEY WILL DROP INTO THE MVFR/IFR
CATEGORY. CIGS HAVE BEEN RESISTANT TO LOWERING ACROSS THE
AREA...MAINLY DUE TO A DRY-ISH DEEP EASTERLY FLOW AND NOW
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF A DEPARTING MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE.
BUT...ONCE WE LOSE THAT SUBSIDENCE...ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS A VERY
DEEP AND VERY SATURATION LOWER ATMOSPHERE...SO CONFIDENCE IS HIGH
WE SHOULD GET TO IFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS LATER THIS EVENING OR
SHORTLY AFTER 06Z. WE THEN STAY THERE WELL INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE APPROACHING SUNDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD PROVIDE
ENOUGH MIXING TO LIFT THINGS UP TO MVFR LEVELS TOWARD LATE
AFTERNOON. BUT THIS ALSO COMES WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN.
WINDS WILL REMAIN STEADY OUT OF THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.MARINE...WILL LEAVE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TIMING AS IS.
PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL RESULT IN HIGH WAVES INTO AT LEAST
EARLY SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016/

TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY EVENING...WINDING DOWN
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH DURING THE EVENING HOURS. WILL LIKELY SEE A
LITTLE LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

HAVE BUMPED POPS UP A FAIR AMOUNT SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AS 12Z GUIDANCE
CAME INTO PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
FRONTOGENESIS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. BEST CHANCE WILL BE
IN THE SOUTHWEST FORECAST AREA.

SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY
SUNDAY. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING MUCH TONIGHT...WITH LOWS
RIGHT NEAR NORMAL VALUES. DECIDED TO LOWER FORECAST HIGHS FOR SUNDAY
GIVEN THE CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES. EXPECTING HIGH TEMPS 10 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF MAY...WITH THE COOLEST
TEMPS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN.

SUNDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
500 MILLIBAR VORT MAX VCNTY NRN IL AT THE OUTSET OF THE EVENING
WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE OH VLY AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. DEF ZONE
PCPN PROGGD BY MODELS TO BE AFFECTING THE AREA AT LEAST DURG THE
EVE HRS BEFORE WINDING DOWN MOSTLY LIKELY BY 06Z OR THEREABOUTS.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
500 MILLIBAR FLOW REMAINS CYCLONIC THIS PERIOD WITH ELONGATED
VORT/SHEAR AXIS PASSING THROUGH. THE ECMWF SHOWS A LITTLE STRONGER
LOOKING VORT TAKING SHAPE DURG THE AFTN THOUGH MODELS SHOW THE
BEST DYNAMIC SUPPORT MORE ACRS IL INTO IN. THE GFS IS ONLY MODEL
TO HAVE QPF ACRS THE CWA ATTM. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW LIMITED
MOISTURE THOUGH DEFINITE CU POTENTIAL. SUPERBLEND POPS ARE QUIET
ATTM AND WILL HOLD WITH THESE FOR NOW AND WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES
KEEPING THE DRY LOOK FOR NOW. THE GFS AND GEM ALSO SHOW A LITTLE
STRONGER VORT ARRIVING LATER MONDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT BUT FOR NOW
THE GFS IS OUTLIER IN SHOWING VRY LGT QPF WITH THIS FEATURE. AGAIN
WILL STEER TOWARDS SUPERBLEND/COLLAB AND KEEP DRY FCST INTACT.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...LOW TO MEDIUM
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A RATHER VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST
FROM CANADA AND ARRIVING HERE TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE GFS IS
FASTER WITH SFC LOW AND COLD FRONT PASSING TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
SHRA AND THEN DRYING OUT TUESDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE THE NAM/GEM/ECMWF
SHOW A TUE EVE FROPA WITH SHRA HOLDING OFF UNTIL TUE EVE/OVERNGT.
WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE AND BRING SOME POPS INTO THE NRN CWA
TUE AFTN AND THEN HIT POPS HARDER CWA WIDE FOR TUE NGT GOING WITH
THE CONSENSUS OF MODELS. HOWEVER IF GFS SCENARIO HOLDS TRUE WILL
NEED TO BUMP POPS MORE FOR TUESDAY AND DRY OUT TUESDAY NIGHT.
A WARM AND POTENTIALLY GUSTY SOUTHWEST/WEST WIND REGIME EXPECTED
IN THE TIGHTER GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW. SO A
PRONOUNCED THERMAL RIDGE LIKELY WITH GFS SHOWING 925 TEMPS WELL
INTO THE TEENS. SO TEMPS WELL INTO THE 60S WITH SOME AREAS LIKELY
TO NUDGE ABOVE 70. STRONG ENOUGH WESTERLY COMPONENT LIKELY TO
NEGATE ANY LAKE COOLING SO TOOK THE WARMTH ALL THE WAY TO THE
LAKE.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
STRONGLY CYCLONIC FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE WITH EMBEDDED VORT MAXIMA
ROTATING THROUGH WI. WHILE LOW LEVEL CAA WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY THE 925 TEMPS BOTTOM OUT AROUND -1C TO 2C WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WINDS WILL REMAIN UP AND CLOUD COVER LIKELY TO BE STUBBORN SO
NOT WORRIED ABOUT FROST ATTM.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
500 MILLIBAR FLOW PATTERN TAKES ON LESS ENERGETIC LOOK WITH UPPER
LOW TO OUR EAST AND NEXT SYSTEM COMING ONTO SW WS. THERE IS SOME
HINTS OF RETROGRESSION OF THE EASTERN LOW THAT COULD KEEP
THE CYCLONIC FLOW MORE PRONOUNCED INTO THURSDAY. OTHERWISE MID
LEVEL RIDING WILL GRADUALLY TAKE HOLD FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
POTENTIAL FOR SOME APPRECIABLE WARMING FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...RAIN HAS NOW SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY EVENING...WINDING
DOWN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH DURING THE EVENING HOURS. WILL LIKELY SEE
A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH
RAIN SHOWERS THEN DEVELOPING IN THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THOSE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO SLIDE EASTWARD INTO THE
EVENING.

CIGS/VSBYS CONTINUE TO GET LOWER FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL SEE AN IMPROVEMENT WITH THE VSBYS WHEN THE RAIN
LETS UP...BUT LOW CIGS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY.

MARINE...WILL LEAVE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TIMING AS IS. PERSISTENT
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL RESULT IN HIGH WAVES INTO AT LEAST EARLY SUNDAY
EVENING.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ645-646.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ643-644.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DAVIS
TONIGHT/SUNDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...DDV
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...COLLAR





000
FXUS63 KMKX 010138
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
838 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.UPDATE...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE THAT EJECTED OUT
OF THE PARENT CIRCULATION OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS HEADING QUICKLY
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. THERE IS RAPID DRYING OF THE
MID LEVELS. WE/RE SEEING THE ASSOCIATED RAIN ALSO DIMINISHING
ACROSS THE AREA AS IT LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST. THIS TREND
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINS DEEP AND ONCE WE GET OUT FROM UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE FROM
THE EXITING SHORTWAVE...WE SHOULD SEE SOME SHOWERS FROM TIME TO
TIME AND PLENTY OF DRIZZLE. WE MAY NEED TO BUMP POPS FOR TOMORROW
AS THAT PARENT SHORTWAVE OVER THE PLAINS TRACKS ACROSS ILLINOIS
LATER ON SUNDAY. THE MAIN FRONTOGENESIS LAYS OUT ACROSS NRN IL AND
SRN WI AND WILL LIKELY BRING THE AREA ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN. WE
HAVE HIGH POPS IN OUR WESTERN CWA ALREADY...JUST MAY NEED TO
STRETCH THOSE EAST. WILL WAIT FOR NEW GUIDANCE BEFORE MAKING ANY
ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...

IF YOU HAVEN/T NOTICED FROM THE NUMEROUS TAF UPDATES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THERE IS A SERIOUS LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN
CLOUD TRENDS...SPECIFICALLY ON WHEN THEY WILL DROP INTO THE MVFR/IFR
CATEGORY. CIGS HAVE BEEN RESISTANT TO LOWERING ACROSS THE
AREA...MAINLY DUE TO A DRY-ISH DEEP EASTERLY FLOW AND NOW
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF A DEPARTING MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE.
BUT...ONCE WE LOSE THAT SUBSIDENCE...ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS A VERY
DEEP AND VERY SATURATION LOWER ATMOSPHERE...SO CONFIDENCE IS HIGH
WE SHOULD GET TO IFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS LATER THIS EVENING OR
SHORTLY AFTER 06Z. WE THEN STAY THERE WELL INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE APPROACHING SUNDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD PROVIDE
ENOUGH MIXING TO LIFT THINGS UP TO MVFR LEVELS TOWARD LATE
AFTERNOON. BUT THIS ALSO COMES WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN.
WINDS WILL REMAIN STEADY OUT OF THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.MARINE...WILL LEAVE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TIMING AS IS.
PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL RESULT IN HIGH WAVES INTO AT LEAST
EARLY SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016/

TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY EVENING...WINDING DOWN
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH DURING THE EVENING HOURS. WILL LIKELY SEE A
LITTLE LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

HAVE BUMPED POPS UP A FAIR AMOUNT SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AS 12Z GUIDANCE
CAME INTO PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
FRONTOGENESIS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. BEST CHANCE WILL BE
IN THE SOUTHWEST FORECAST AREA.

SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY
SUNDAY. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING MUCH TONIGHT...WITH LOWS
RIGHT NEAR NORMAL VALUES. DECIDED TO LOWER FORECAST HIGHS FOR SUNDAY
GIVEN THE CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES. EXPECTING HIGH TEMPS 10 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST DAY OF MAY...WITH THE COOLEST
TEMPS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN.

SUNDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
500 MILLIBAR VORT MAX VCNTY NRN IL AT THE OUTSET OF THE EVENING
WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE OH VLY AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. DEF ZONE
PCPN PROGGD BY MODELS TO BE AFFECTING THE AREA AT LEAST DURG THE
EVE HRS BEFORE WINDING DOWN MOSTLY LIKELY BY 06Z OR THEREABOUTS.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
500 MILLIBAR FLOW REMAINS CYCLONIC THIS PERIOD WITH ELONGATED
VORT/SHEAR AXIS PASSING THROUGH. THE ECMWF SHOWS A LITTLE STRONGER
LOOKING VORT TAKING SHAPE DURG THE AFTN THOUGH MODELS SHOW THE
BEST DYNAMIC SUPPORT MORE ACRS IL INTO IN. THE GFS IS ONLY MODEL
TO HAVE QPF ACRS THE CWA ATTM. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW LIMITED
MOISTURE THOUGH DEFINITE CU POTENTIAL. SUPERBLEND POPS ARE QUIET
ATTM AND WILL HOLD WITH THESE FOR NOW AND WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES
KEEPING THE DRY LOOK FOR NOW. THE GFS AND GEM ALSO SHOW A LITTLE
STRONGER VORT ARRIVING LATER MONDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT BUT FOR NOW
THE GFS IS OUTLIER IN SHOWING VRY LGT QPF WITH THIS FEATURE. AGAIN
WILL STEER TOWARDS SUPERBLEND/COLLAB AND KEEP DRY FCST INTACT.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...LOW TO MEDIUM
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A RATHER VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST
FROM CANADA AND ARRIVING HERE TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE GFS IS
FASTER WITH SFC LOW AND COLD FRONT PASSING TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
SHRA AND THEN DRYING OUT TUESDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE THE NAM/GEM/ECMWF
SHOW A TUE EVE FROPA WITH SHRA HOLDING OFF UNTIL TUE EVE/OVERNGT.
WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE AND BRING SOME POPS INTO THE NRN CWA
TUE AFTN AND THEN HIT POPS HARDER CWA WIDE FOR TUE NGT GOING WITH
THE CONSENSUS OF MODELS. HOWEVER IF GFS SCENARIO HOLDS TRUE WILL
NEED TO BUMP POPS MORE FOR TUESDAY AND DRY OUT TUESDAY NIGHT.
A WARM AND POTENTIALLY GUSTY SOUTHWEST/WEST WIND REGIME EXPECTED
IN THE TIGHTER GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW. SO A
PRONOUNCED THERMAL RIDGE LIKELY WITH GFS SHOWING 925 TEMPS WELL
INTO THE TEENS. SO TEMPS WELL INTO THE 60S WITH SOME AREAS LIKELY
TO NUDGE ABOVE 70. STRONG ENOUGH WESTERLY COMPONENT LIKELY TO
NEGATE ANY LAKE COOLING SO TOOK THE WARMTH ALL THE WAY TO THE
LAKE.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
STRONGLY CYCLONIC FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE WITH EMBEDDED VORT MAXIMA
ROTATING THROUGH WI. WHILE LOW LEVEL CAA WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY THE 925 TEMPS BOTTOM OUT AROUND -1C TO 2C WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WINDS WILL REMAIN UP AND CLOUD COVER LIKELY TO BE STUBBORN SO
NOT WORRIED ABOUT FROST ATTM.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
500 MILLIBAR FLOW PATTERN TAKES ON LESS ENERGETIC LOOK WITH UPPER
LOW TO OUR EAST AND NEXT SYSTEM COMING ONTO SW WS. THERE IS SOME
HINTS OF RETROGRESSION OF THE EASTERN LOW THAT COULD KEEP
THE CYCLONIC FLOW MORE PRONOUNCED INTO THURSDAY. OTHERWISE MID
LEVEL RIDING WILL GRADUALLY TAKE HOLD FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
POTENTIAL FOR SOME APPRECIABLE WARMING FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...RAIN HAS NOW SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY EVENING...WINDING
DOWN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH DURING THE EVENING HOURS. WILL LIKELY SEE
A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH
RAIN SHOWERS THEN DEVELOPING IN THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THOSE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO SLIDE EASTWARD INTO THE
EVENING.

CIGS/VSBYS CONTINUE TO GET LOWER FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL SEE AN IMPROVEMENT WITH THE VSBYS WHEN THE RAIN
LETS UP...BUT LOW CIGS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY.

MARINE...WILL LEAVE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TIMING AS IS. PERSISTENT
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL RESULT IN HIGH WAVES INTO AT LEAST EARLY SUNDAY
EVENING.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ645-646.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ643-644.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DAVIS
TONIGHT/SUNDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...DDV
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...COLLAR





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