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000
FXUS63 KMKX 261513 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1013 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.UPDATE...

WATCHING AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS UPSTREAM AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE
AND VORT MAX APPROACH. LATEST RAP AND HRRR SUGGEST POPS MAY NEED
TO BE BUMPED UP A BIT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A TON OF RAIN...BUT
SOME LOCATIONS MAY SEE AT LEAST ENOUGH TO WET THE GROUND.

THERE IS A NICE POCKET OF CLEARING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST FORECAST
AREA RIGHT NOW. THERE ARE ALSO A LOT OF CLOUDS UP STREAM...SO
LOOKS LIKE SUN MAY BE LIMITED IN THE AFTERNOON. IF THIS PANS
OUT...HIGH TEMPS WILL PROBABLY NEED TO BE LOWERED A BIT.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

WATCHING AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS UPSTREAM AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE AND VORT MAX APPROACH. IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A TON OF
RAIN...BUT SOME LOCATIONS MAY SEE AT LEAST ENOUGH TO WET THE
GROUND THIS AFTERNOON. WILL WATCH UPSTREAM CONDITIONS AND UPDATE
TAFS AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES.

LATEST RAP AND NAM SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ENOUGH MIXING TODAY FOR VFR
CONDITIONS TO RETURN MOST PLACES BY AFTERNOON. SHOULD SEE MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS THEN THROUGH SUNDAY. LOOKS LIKE A DECENT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE
FRONT MOVE THROUGH.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

EXPECTING A QUIET...WARM AND HUMID DAY TODAY. WARM ADVECTION WITH
A DEPARTING SHORTWAVE IS BRINGING SOME SHOWERS TO NORTHERN IL
EARLY THIS MORNING AND SOME SPRINKLES ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN WI.
THIS SHOULD MOSTLY BE OUT OF THE AREA BY OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.

MODELS THEN SHOW A WEAK MID LEVEL RIPPLE COMING ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON...ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE IMPRESSIVE
CLOSED SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF SCNTRL CANADA. HOWEVER...THERE
IS A FORMIDABLE DRY LAYER FROM BELOW 850MB THROUGH ABOUT 650MB
THAT WILL MAKE IT HARD TO PRECIPITATE THROUGH.

ADDITIONALLY...THERE IS A RATHER STRONG LOW LEVEL CAP THAT WILL
WORK TO PREVENT ANY DEVELOPMENT. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP IT DRY
TODAY. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP IT DRY TODAY. LOWER CLOUDS AROUND
THIS MORNING...ASSOCIATED WITH THE EXITING SHORT WAVE...SHOULD
GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT WITH SUNSHINE EXPECTED. HIGHS SHOULD EASILY
HIT THE LOWER TO MID 80S.

THE LARGE CANADIAN SYSTEM WILL PUSH INTO NORTHWEST WI BY 12Z SUN
WITH SURFACE TROFING PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA AS WELL. THE COLUMN
STILL LOOKS QUITE DRY OUT AHEAD OF THE UPPER SYSTEM AND WE/LL
PROBABLY HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL SUNDAY FOR BETTER SATURATION AND
INSTABILITY TO BRING PRECIP WITH THE COOLING TEMPS ALOFT. WILL
INTRO A SMALL POP ACROSS THE NORTH AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT FOR THE
SMALL THREAT THERE.

SHORT TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

MODELS PUSH SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REST
OF THE AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS...WITH A SECONDARY TROUGH
MOVING SOUTH INTO THE AREA BY 00Z MONDAY. STRONG 500 MB SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ALSO SLIDES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY.

AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM SHOWING A GOOD AMOUNT OF
MEAN LAYER CAPE AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR UNTIL AROUND 15Z SUNDAY IN
THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA...WHICH WOULD BRING A HAIL/WIND
RISK. GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW MUCH LESS INSTABILITY IN THE MORNING IN
THIS AREA...SO THINK NAM IS LIKELY OVERDONE WITH THE INSTABILITY.

BOTH MODELS DO BRING SOME RATHER WEAK TALL/SKINNY CAPE TO THE
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. KEPT LIKELY POPS IN THE AFTERNOON IN
MOST OF THE AREA...WITH RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY AND CHANCE OF THUNDER.
KEPT LOWER END POPS IN THE EVENING IN THE EAST...UNTIL COOLER AND
DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION ENDS THE PRECIPITATION. HIGHS
SUNDAY SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...THEN FALL INTO
THE EVENING WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION.

500 MB TROUGH REMAINS OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA AND INTO THE
NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC REGION. THIS WILL KEEP 500 MB FLOW
NORTHWESTERLY OVER THE REGION...WITH WEAK VORTICITY MAXIMA MOVING
THROUGH AT TIMES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT...WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION
BRINGING COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR INTO THE AREA.

NAM ONLY MODEL SHOWING QPF MONDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT WITH SHOWERS.
KEPT MONDAY DRY AS OTHER MODELS KEEP DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES
WILL REACH THE LOWER TO MID 70S MONDAY...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE
50S SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

ECMWF/GFS GENERALLY SHOW NORTHWEST FLOW AT 500 MB REMAINING OVER
THE REGION FOR THIS PERIOD...WITH WEAK VORTICITY MAXIMA MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA AT TIMES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SLOWLY
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY AREA. THE MODELS GENERATE QPF DURING EACH AFTERNOON
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW WEAK INSTABILITY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH BETTER MEAN LAYER CAPES IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS
FOR LATER IN THE WEEK. FOR NOW...CONTINUED TO HAVE LOWER END POPS
EACH DAY AND NIGHT FOR MOST OF THIS PERIOD. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
BE SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS EACH DAY.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

LOOK FOR AN AREA OF MVFR CLOUDS THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY FROM
KMSN ON WEST. THESE CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK TROF AND
WARM ADVECTION MOVING THROUGH AND SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE FROM
WEST TO EAST SHORTLY AFTER 12Z THIS MORNING. THEN LOOK FOR VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

THE CHANCES OF SHOWER OR STORMS LOOK VERY SMALL UNTIL WE GET
CLOSER TO THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW DROPPING
IN AROUND 12Z SUNDAY MORNING. SO...GENERALLY A VERY QUIET TAF
PERIOD WITH LIGHT WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

MARINE...

COULD SEE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS DEVELOP LATER SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY...AS NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE IN THE WAKE OF PASSING
LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DDV
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DAVIS
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WOOD





000
FXUS63 KMKX 261513 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1013 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.UPDATE...

WATCHING AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS UPSTREAM AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE
AND VORT MAX APPROACH. LATEST RAP AND HRRR SUGGEST POPS MAY NEED
TO BE BUMPED UP A BIT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A TON OF RAIN...BUT
SOME LOCATIONS MAY SEE AT LEAST ENOUGH TO WET THE GROUND.

THERE IS A NICE POCKET OF CLEARING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST FORECAST
AREA RIGHT NOW. THERE ARE ALSO A LOT OF CLOUDS UP STREAM...SO
LOOKS LIKE SUN MAY BE LIMITED IN THE AFTERNOON. IF THIS PANS
OUT...HIGH TEMPS WILL PROBABLY NEED TO BE LOWERED A BIT.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

WATCHING AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS UPSTREAM AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE AND VORT MAX APPROACH. IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A TON OF
RAIN...BUT SOME LOCATIONS MAY SEE AT LEAST ENOUGH TO WET THE
GROUND THIS AFTERNOON. WILL WATCH UPSTREAM CONDITIONS AND UPDATE
TAFS AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES.

LATEST RAP AND NAM SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ENOUGH MIXING TODAY FOR VFR
CONDITIONS TO RETURN MOST PLACES BY AFTERNOON. SHOULD SEE MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS THEN THROUGH SUNDAY. LOOKS LIKE A DECENT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE
FRONT MOVE THROUGH.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

EXPECTING A QUIET...WARM AND HUMID DAY TODAY. WARM ADVECTION WITH
A DEPARTING SHORTWAVE IS BRINGING SOME SHOWERS TO NORTHERN IL
EARLY THIS MORNING AND SOME SPRINKLES ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN WI.
THIS SHOULD MOSTLY BE OUT OF THE AREA BY OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.

MODELS THEN SHOW A WEAK MID LEVEL RIPPLE COMING ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON...ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE IMPRESSIVE
CLOSED SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF SCNTRL CANADA. HOWEVER...THERE
IS A FORMIDABLE DRY LAYER FROM BELOW 850MB THROUGH ABOUT 650MB
THAT WILL MAKE IT HARD TO PRECIPITATE THROUGH.

ADDITIONALLY...THERE IS A RATHER STRONG LOW LEVEL CAP THAT WILL
WORK TO PREVENT ANY DEVELOPMENT. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP IT DRY
TODAY. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP IT DRY TODAY. LOWER CLOUDS AROUND
THIS MORNING...ASSOCIATED WITH THE EXITING SHORT WAVE...SHOULD
GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT WITH SUNSHINE EXPECTED. HIGHS SHOULD EASILY
HIT THE LOWER TO MID 80S.

THE LARGE CANADIAN SYSTEM WILL PUSH INTO NORTHWEST WI BY 12Z SUN
WITH SURFACE TROFING PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA AS WELL. THE COLUMN
STILL LOOKS QUITE DRY OUT AHEAD OF THE UPPER SYSTEM AND WE/LL
PROBABLY HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL SUNDAY FOR BETTER SATURATION AND
INSTABILITY TO BRING PRECIP WITH THE COOLING TEMPS ALOFT. WILL
INTRO A SMALL POP ACROSS THE NORTH AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT FOR THE
SMALL THREAT THERE.

SHORT TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

MODELS PUSH SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REST
OF THE AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS...WITH A SECONDARY TROUGH
MOVING SOUTH INTO THE AREA BY 00Z MONDAY. STRONG 500 MB SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ALSO SLIDES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY.

AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM SHOWING A GOOD AMOUNT OF
MEAN LAYER CAPE AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR UNTIL AROUND 15Z SUNDAY IN
THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA...WHICH WOULD BRING A HAIL/WIND
RISK. GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW MUCH LESS INSTABILITY IN THE MORNING IN
THIS AREA...SO THINK NAM IS LIKELY OVERDONE WITH THE INSTABILITY.

BOTH MODELS DO BRING SOME RATHER WEAK TALL/SKINNY CAPE TO THE
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. KEPT LIKELY POPS IN THE AFTERNOON IN
MOST OF THE AREA...WITH RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY AND CHANCE OF THUNDER.
KEPT LOWER END POPS IN THE EVENING IN THE EAST...UNTIL COOLER AND
DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION ENDS THE PRECIPITATION. HIGHS
SUNDAY SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...THEN FALL INTO
THE EVENING WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION.

500 MB TROUGH REMAINS OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA AND INTO THE
NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC REGION. THIS WILL KEEP 500 MB FLOW
NORTHWESTERLY OVER THE REGION...WITH WEAK VORTICITY MAXIMA MOVING
THROUGH AT TIMES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT...WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION
BRINGING COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR INTO THE AREA.

NAM ONLY MODEL SHOWING QPF MONDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT WITH SHOWERS.
KEPT MONDAY DRY AS OTHER MODELS KEEP DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES
WILL REACH THE LOWER TO MID 70S MONDAY...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE
50S SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

ECMWF/GFS GENERALLY SHOW NORTHWEST FLOW AT 500 MB REMAINING OVER
THE REGION FOR THIS PERIOD...WITH WEAK VORTICITY MAXIMA MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA AT TIMES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SLOWLY
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY AREA. THE MODELS GENERATE QPF DURING EACH AFTERNOON
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW WEAK INSTABILITY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH BETTER MEAN LAYER CAPES IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS
FOR LATER IN THE WEEK. FOR NOW...CONTINUED TO HAVE LOWER END POPS
EACH DAY AND NIGHT FOR MOST OF THIS PERIOD. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
BE SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS EACH DAY.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

LOOK FOR AN AREA OF MVFR CLOUDS THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY FROM
KMSN ON WEST. THESE CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK TROF AND
WARM ADVECTION MOVING THROUGH AND SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE FROM
WEST TO EAST SHORTLY AFTER 12Z THIS MORNING. THEN LOOK FOR VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

THE CHANCES OF SHOWER OR STORMS LOOK VERY SMALL UNTIL WE GET
CLOSER TO THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW DROPPING
IN AROUND 12Z SUNDAY MORNING. SO...GENERALLY A VERY QUIET TAF
PERIOD WITH LIGHT WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

MARINE...

COULD SEE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS DEVELOP LATER SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY...AS NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE IN THE WAKE OF PASSING
LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DDV
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DAVIS
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WOOD




000
FXUS63 KMKX 260822
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
322 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

EXPECTING A QUIET...WARM AND HUMID DAY TODAY. WARM ADVECTION WITH
A DEPARTING SHORTWAVE IS BRINGING SOME SHOWERS TO NORTHERN IL
EARLY THIS MORNING AND SOME SPRINKLES ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN WI.
THIS SHOULD MOSTLY BE OUT OF THE AREA BY OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.

MODELS THEN SHOW A WEAK MID LEVEL RIPPLE COMING ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON...ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE IMPRESSIVE
CLOSED SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF SCNTRL CANADA. HOWEVER...THERE
IS A FORMIDABLE DRY LAYER FROM BELOW 850MB THROUGH ABOUT 650MB
THAT WILL MAKE IT HARD TO PRECIPITATE THROUGH.

ADDITIONALLY...THERE IS A RATHER STRONG LOW LEVEL CAP THAT WILL
WORK TO PREVENT ANY DEVELOPMENT. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP IT DRY
TODAY. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP IT DRY TODAY. LOWER CLOUDS AROUND
THIS MORNING...ASSOCIATED WITH THE EXITING SHORT WAVE...SHOULD
GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT WITH SUNSHINE EXPECTED. HIGHS SHOULD EASILY
HIT THE LOWER TO MID 80S.

THE LARGE CANADIAN SYSTEM WILL PUSH INTO NORTHWEST WI BY 12Z SUN
WITH SURFACE TROFING PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA AS WELL. THE COLUMN
STILL LOOKS QUITE DRY OUT AHEAD OF THE UPPER SYSTEM AND WE/LL
PROBABLY HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL SUNDAY FOR BETTER SATURATION AND
INSTABILITY TO BRING PRECIP WITH THE COOLING TEMPS ALOFT. WILL
INTRO A SMALL POP ACROSS THE NORTH AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT FOR THE
SMALL THREAT THERE.

.SHORT TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

MODELS PUSH SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REST
OF THE AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS...WITH A SECONDARY TROUGH
MOVING SOUTH INTO THE AREA BY 00Z MONDAY. STRONG 500 MB SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ALSO SLIDES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY.

AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM SHOWING A GOOD AMOUNT OF
MEAN LAYER CAPE AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR UNTIL AROUND 15Z SUNDAY IN
THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA...WHICH WOULD BRING A HAIL/WIND
RISK. GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW MUCH LESS INSTABILITY IN THE MORNING IN
THIS AREA...SO THINK NAM IS LIKELY OVERDONE WITH THE INSTABILITY.

BOTH MODELS DO BRING SOME RATHER WEAK TALL/SKINNY CAPE TO THE
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. KEPT LIKELY POPS IN THE AFTERNOON IN
MOST OF THE AREA...WITH RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY AND CHANCE OF THUNDER.
KEPT LOWER END POPS IN THE EVENING IN THE EAST...UNTIL COOLER AND
DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION ENDS THE PRECIPITATION. HIGHS
SUNDAY SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...THEN FALL INTO
THE EVENING WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION.

500 MB TROUGH REMAINS OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA AND INTO THE
NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC REGION. THIS WILL KEEP 500 MB FLOW
NORTHWESTERLY OVER THE REGION...WITH WEAK VORTICITY MAXIMA MOVING
THROUGH AT TIMES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT...WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION
BRINGING COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR INTO THE AREA.

NAM ONLY MODEL SHOWING QPF MONDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT WITH SHOWERS.
KEPT MONDAY DRY AS OTHER MODELS KEEP DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES
WILL REACH THE LOWER TO MID 70S MONDAY...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE
50S SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

ECMWF/GFS GENERALLY SHOW NORTHWEST FLOW AT 500 MB REMAINING OVER
THE REGION FOR THIS PERIOD...WITH WEAK VORTICITY MAXIMA MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA AT TIMES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SLOWLY
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY AREA. THE MODELS GENERATE QPF DURING EACH AFTERNOON
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW WEAK INSTABILITY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH BETTER MEAN LAYER CAPES IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS
FOR LATER IN THE WEEK. FOR NOW...CONTINUED TO HAVE LOWER END POPS
EACH DAY AND NIGHT FOR MOST OF THIS PERIOD. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
BE SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

LOOK FOR AN AREA OF MVFR CLOUDS THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY FROM
KMSN ON WEST. THESE CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK TROF AND
WARM ADVECTION MOVING THROUGH AND SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE FROM
WEST TO EAST SHORTLY AFTER 12Z THIS MORNING. THEN LOOK FOR VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

THE CHANCES OF SHOWER OR STORMS LOOK VERY SMALL UNTIL WE GET
CLOSER TO THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW DROPPING
IN AROUND 12Z SUNDAY MORNING. SO...GENERALLY A VERY QUIET TAF
PERIOD WITH LIGHT WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...

COULD SEE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS DEVELOP LATER SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY...AS NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE IN THE WAKE OF PASSING
LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DAVIS
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WOOD





000
FXUS63 KMKX 260822
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
322 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

EXPECTING A QUIET...WARM AND HUMID DAY TODAY. WARM ADVECTION WITH
A DEPARTING SHORTWAVE IS BRINGING SOME SHOWERS TO NORTHERN IL
EARLY THIS MORNING AND SOME SPRINKLES ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN WI.
THIS SHOULD MOSTLY BE OUT OF THE AREA BY OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.

MODELS THEN SHOW A WEAK MID LEVEL RIPPLE COMING ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON...ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE IMPRESSIVE
CLOSED SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF SCNTRL CANADA. HOWEVER...THERE
IS A FORMIDABLE DRY LAYER FROM BELOW 850MB THROUGH ABOUT 650MB
THAT WILL MAKE IT HARD TO PRECIPITATE THROUGH.

ADDITIONALLY...THERE IS A RATHER STRONG LOW LEVEL CAP THAT WILL
WORK TO PREVENT ANY DEVELOPMENT. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP IT DRY
TODAY. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP IT DRY TODAY. LOWER CLOUDS AROUND
THIS MORNING...ASSOCIATED WITH THE EXITING SHORT WAVE...SHOULD
GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT WITH SUNSHINE EXPECTED. HIGHS SHOULD EASILY
HIT THE LOWER TO MID 80S.

THE LARGE CANADIAN SYSTEM WILL PUSH INTO NORTHWEST WI BY 12Z SUN
WITH SURFACE TROFING PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA AS WELL. THE COLUMN
STILL LOOKS QUITE DRY OUT AHEAD OF THE UPPER SYSTEM AND WE/LL
PROBABLY HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL SUNDAY FOR BETTER SATURATION AND
INSTABILITY TO BRING PRECIP WITH THE COOLING TEMPS ALOFT. WILL
INTRO A SMALL POP ACROSS THE NORTH AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT FOR THE
SMALL THREAT THERE.

.SHORT TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

MODELS PUSH SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REST
OF THE AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS...WITH A SECONDARY TROUGH
MOVING SOUTH INTO THE AREA BY 00Z MONDAY. STRONG 500 MB SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ALSO SLIDES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY.

AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM SHOWING A GOOD AMOUNT OF
MEAN LAYER CAPE AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR UNTIL AROUND 15Z SUNDAY IN
THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA...WHICH WOULD BRING A HAIL/WIND
RISK. GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW MUCH LESS INSTABILITY IN THE MORNING IN
THIS AREA...SO THINK NAM IS LIKELY OVERDONE WITH THE INSTABILITY.

BOTH MODELS DO BRING SOME RATHER WEAK TALL/SKINNY CAPE TO THE
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. KEPT LIKELY POPS IN THE AFTERNOON IN
MOST OF THE AREA...WITH RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY AND CHANCE OF THUNDER.
KEPT LOWER END POPS IN THE EVENING IN THE EAST...UNTIL COOLER AND
DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION ENDS THE PRECIPITATION. HIGHS
SUNDAY SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...THEN FALL INTO
THE EVENING WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION.

500 MB TROUGH REMAINS OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA AND INTO THE
NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC REGION. THIS WILL KEEP 500 MB FLOW
NORTHWESTERLY OVER THE REGION...WITH WEAK VORTICITY MAXIMA MOVING
THROUGH AT TIMES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT...WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION
BRINGING COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR INTO THE AREA.

NAM ONLY MODEL SHOWING QPF MONDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT WITH SHOWERS.
KEPT MONDAY DRY AS OTHER MODELS KEEP DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES
WILL REACH THE LOWER TO MID 70S MONDAY...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE
50S SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

ECMWF/GFS GENERALLY SHOW NORTHWEST FLOW AT 500 MB REMAINING OVER
THE REGION FOR THIS PERIOD...WITH WEAK VORTICITY MAXIMA MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA AT TIMES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SLOWLY
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY AREA. THE MODELS GENERATE QPF DURING EACH AFTERNOON
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW WEAK INSTABILITY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH BETTER MEAN LAYER CAPES IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS
FOR LATER IN THE WEEK. FOR NOW...CONTINUED TO HAVE LOWER END POPS
EACH DAY AND NIGHT FOR MOST OF THIS PERIOD. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
BE SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

LOOK FOR AN AREA OF MVFR CLOUDS THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY FROM
KMSN ON WEST. THESE CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK TROF AND
WARM ADVECTION MOVING THROUGH AND SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE FROM
WEST TO EAST SHORTLY AFTER 12Z THIS MORNING. THEN LOOK FOR VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

THE CHANCES OF SHOWER OR STORMS LOOK VERY SMALL UNTIL WE GET
CLOSER TO THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW DROPPING
IN AROUND 12Z SUNDAY MORNING. SO...GENERALLY A VERY QUIET TAF
PERIOD WITH LIGHT WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...

COULD SEE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS DEVELOP LATER SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY...AS NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE IN THE WAKE OF PASSING
LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DAVIS
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WOOD




000
FXUS63 KMKX 260220
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
920 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.UPDATE...TEMPERATURES HAVE SLIPPED INTO THE MID 60S IN SOME
EASTERN LOCATIONS...SO TWEEKED A FEW LOCATIONS DOWNWARD OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT CLOUDS TO HANG ON THROUGH THE NIGHT DUE TO WEAK LOW LEVEL
WARM AIR ADVECTION AND UPSTREAM WEAK SHORT WAVE OVER SOUTHERN MN
HEADING THIS WAY. REMOVED LOW POPS FROM THIS EVENING EARLIER. NOT
IMPOSSIBLE A STRAY -SHRA MAY DEVELOP AS SHORT WAVE/TROUGH PASSES
LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ADD
POPS AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...MVFR CIGS MAKING SLOW PROGRESS EWD IN WEAK
LOW LEVEL FLOW. EXPECT STRATUS TO HANG ON INTO SATURDAY MORNING
BEFORE THINNING AS DRIER AIR BEHIND PASSING WEAK TROUGH SETTLES
INTO SRN WI.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 233 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014/

SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN IS CURRENTLY PUSHING OFFSHORE...WITH LATEST
MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGESTING MAINLY DRY WEATHER AFTER THAT. LOW LEVEL
JET AND BEST WARM ADVECTION WILL BE FOCUSED FARTHER SOUTH
TONIGHT...SO HAVE LOWERED POPS QUITE A BIT. LINGERED SOME LOW POPS
INTO THE EVENING...GOING DRY ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

MODELS SHOWING A GOOD AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY TOMORROW...BUT SOUNDINGS
LOOK PRETTY CAPPED THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. TROUGH AXIS WILL BE
EXITING IN THE MORNING...WITH NOT MUCH OF A TRIGGER THROUGH THE REST
OF THE DAY. GIVEN ALL THIS...DECIDED TO KEEP POPS DRY...THOUGH A
STRAY SHOWER OR STORM NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

925 MB TEMPS SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 22-24C RANGE...SO KEPT MID 80S
GOING MOST PLACES...WITH A FEW SPOTS GETTING INTO THE UPPER 80S
GIVEN ENOUGH SUN. DEWPOINTS WILL BE BACK UP INTO THE MID 60S TO
AROUND 70...SO IT WILL BE A STICKY DAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

THE ZONAL FLOW BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AS A MID/UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO DROP SOUTHEAST TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND INTO LOWER MICHIGAN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER
DIVERGENCE AND 700 MB UPWARD MOTION INCREASES SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING UNTIL THE 250 MB TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS LAKE
MICHIGAN SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

NSHARP HAIL PARAMETERS STILL INDICATE A MARGINAL SEVERE POTENTIAL
SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE CAP WEAKENS WITH ELEVATED CAPE AROUND 2500
JOULES/KM WITH 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES AROUND 7.5 CELSIUS/KM.
HOWEVER SOUNDINGS ARE FAIRLY DRY BELOW 12 THSD FT UNTIL SUNRISE
WHEN MOISTURE INCREASES ABOVE A LOW LEVEL INVERSION AROUND 900 MB.

NAM INCREASES PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...WITH THE 00Z
ECMWF PRODUCING AROUND 0.50 INCH AMOUNTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. BY
AFTERNOON THE NAM DECREASES CAPE...AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES. 500 MB TEMPERATURES COOL TO AROUND -15 CELSIUS AND
AROUND 7 CELSIUS AT 850 MB. LAPSE RATES ARE RATHER STEEP BELOW A
750 MB INVERSION. THIS INVERSION SHOULD KEEP ANY SHOWER POTENTIAL
VERY LOW.

BRISK NORTH WINDS CONTINUE NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN AS HIGH PRESSURE
BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS.

LONG TERM...

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE GFS/ECMWF AND DGEX. THE MID/UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES
TO DIG ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS AND UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ALTHOUGH THE COOL AIR ALOFT COULD BRING
DIURNAL SHOWERS...TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

THE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH BECOMES MORE BROAD AND RETROGRADES A
LITTLE TOWARD THE WEST.

THIS BRINGS MORE DIURNAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND CONTINUES THE
RATHER COOL SUMMER TEMPERATURES.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN IS CURRENTLY PUSHING OFFSHORE...WITH LATEST
MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGESTING MAINLY DRY WEATHER AFTER THAT. LINGERED
SOME LOW POPS INTO THE EVENING...GOING DRY ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FOR SATURDAY...THOUGH A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD
GENERALLY IMPROVE BY EVENING...WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THEN
EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.

MARINE...

COULD SEE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS DEVELOP LATER SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY AS NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASE.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MBK





000
FXUS63 KMKX 260220
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
920 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.UPDATE...TEMPERATURES HAVE SLIPPED INTO THE MID 60S IN SOME
EASTERN LOCATIONS...SO TWEEKED A FEW LOCATIONS DOWNWARD OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT CLOUDS TO HANG ON THROUGH THE NIGHT DUE TO WEAK LOW LEVEL
WARM AIR ADVECTION AND UPSTREAM WEAK SHORT WAVE OVER SOUTHERN MN
HEADING THIS WAY. REMOVED LOW POPS FROM THIS EVENING EARLIER. NOT
IMPOSSIBLE A STRAY -SHRA MAY DEVELOP AS SHORT WAVE/TROUGH PASSES
LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ADD
POPS AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...MVFR CIGS MAKING SLOW PROGRESS EWD IN WEAK
LOW LEVEL FLOW. EXPECT STRATUS TO HANG ON INTO SATURDAY MORNING
BEFORE THINNING AS DRIER AIR BEHIND PASSING WEAK TROUGH SETTLES
INTO SRN WI.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 233 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014/

SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN IS CURRENTLY PUSHING OFFSHORE...WITH LATEST
MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGESTING MAINLY DRY WEATHER AFTER THAT. LOW LEVEL
JET AND BEST WARM ADVECTION WILL BE FOCUSED FARTHER SOUTH
TONIGHT...SO HAVE LOWERED POPS QUITE A BIT. LINGERED SOME LOW POPS
INTO THE EVENING...GOING DRY ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

MODELS SHOWING A GOOD AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY TOMORROW...BUT SOUNDINGS
LOOK PRETTY CAPPED THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. TROUGH AXIS WILL BE
EXITING IN THE MORNING...WITH NOT MUCH OF A TRIGGER THROUGH THE REST
OF THE DAY. GIVEN ALL THIS...DECIDED TO KEEP POPS DRY...THOUGH A
STRAY SHOWER OR STORM NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

925 MB TEMPS SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 22-24C RANGE...SO KEPT MID 80S
GOING MOST PLACES...WITH A FEW SPOTS GETTING INTO THE UPPER 80S
GIVEN ENOUGH SUN. DEWPOINTS WILL BE BACK UP INTO THE MID 60S TO
AROUND 70...SO IT WILL BE A STICKY DAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

THE ZONAL FLOW BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AS A MID/UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO DROP SOUTHEAST TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND INTO LOWER MICHIGAN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER
DIVERGENCE AND 700 MB UPWARD MOTION INCREASES SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING UNTIL THE 250 MB TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS LAKE
MICHIGAN SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

NSHARP HAIL PARAMETERS STILL INDICATE A MARGINAL SEVERE POTENTIAL
SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE CAP WEAKENS WITH ELEVATED CAPE AROUND 2500
JOULES/KM WITH 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES AROUND 7.5 CELSIUS/KM.
HOWEVER SOUNDINGS ARE FAIRLY DRY BELOW 12 THSD FT UNTIL SUNRISE
WHEN MOISTURE INCREASES ABOVE A LOW LEVEL INVERSION AROUND 900 MB.

NAM INCREASES PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...WITH THE 00Z
ECMWF PRODUCING AROUND 0.50 INCH AMOUNTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. BY
AFTERNOON THE NAM DECREASES CAPE...AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES. 500 MB TEMPERATURES COOL TO AROUND -15 CELSIUS AND
AROUND 7 CELSIUS AT 850 MB. LAPSE RATES ARE RATHER STEEP BELOW A
750 MB INVERSION. THIS INVERSION SHOULD KEEP ANY SHOWER POTENTIAL
VERY LOW.

BRISK NORTH WINDS CONTINUE NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN AS HIGH PRESSURE
BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS.

LONG TERM...

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE GFS/ECMWF AND DGEX. THE MID/UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES
TO DIG ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS AND UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ALTHOUGH THE COOL AIR ALOFT COULD BRING
DIURNAL SHOWERS...TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

THE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH BECOMES MORE BROAD AND RETROGRADES A
LITTLE TOWARD THE WEST.

THIS BRINGS MORE DIURNAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND CONTINUES THE
RATHER COOL SUMMER TEMPERATURES.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN IS CURRENTLY PUSHING OFFSHORE...WITH LATEST
MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGESTING MAINLY DRY WEATHER AFTER THAT. LINGERED
SOME LOW POPS INTO THE EVENING...GOING DRY ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FOR SATURDAY...THOUGH A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD
GENERALLY IMPROVE BY EVENING...WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THEN
EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.

MARINE...

COULD SEE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS DEVELOP LATER SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY AS NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASE.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MBK




000
FXUS63 KMKX 251933
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
233 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...

.TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN IS CURRENTLY PUSHING OFFSHORE...WITH LATEST
MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGESTING MAINLY DRY WEATHER AFTER THAT. LOW LEVEL
JET AND BEST WARM ADVECTION WILL BE FOCUSED FARTHER SOUTH
TONIGHT...SO HAVE LOWERED POPS QUITE A BIT. LINGERED SOME LOW POPS
INTO THE EVENING...GOING DRY ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

MODELS SHOWING A GOOD AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY TOMORROW...BUT SOUNDINGS
LOOK PRETTY CAPPED THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. TROUGH AXIS WILL BE
EXITING IN THE MORNING...WITH NOT MUCH OF A TRIGGER THROUGH THE REST
OF THE DAY. GIVEN ALL THIS...DECIDED TO KEEP POPS DRY...THOUGH A
STRAY SHOWER OR STORM NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

925 MB TEMPS SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 22-24C RANGE...SO KEPT MID 80S
GOING MOST PLACES...WITH A FEW SPOTS GETTING INTO THE UPPER 80S
GIVEN ENOUGH SUN. DEWPOINTS WILL BE BACK UP INTO THE MID 60S TO
AROUND 70...SO IT WILL BE A STICKY DAY.

.SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

THE ZONAL FLOW BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AS A MID/UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO DROP SOUTHEAST TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND INTO LOWER MICHIGAN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER
DIVERGENCE AND 700 MB UPWARD MOTION INCREASES SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING UNTIL THE 250 MB TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS LAKE
MICHIGAN SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

NSHARP HAIL PARAMETERS STILL INDICATE A MARGINAL SEVERE POTENTIAL
SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE CAP WEAKENS WITH ELEVATED CAPE AROUND 2500
JOULES/KM WITH 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES AROUND 7.5 CELSIUS/KM.
HOWEVER SOUNDINGS ARE FAIRLY DRY BELOW 12 THSD FT UNTIL SUNRISE
WHEN MOISTURE INCREASES ABOVE A LOW LEVEL INVERSION AROUND 900 MB.

NAM INCREASES PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...WITH THE 00Z
ECMWF PRODUCING AROUND 0.50 INCH AMOUNTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. BY
AFTERNOON THE NAM DECREASES CAPE...AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS.

.SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES. 500 MB TEMPERATURES COOL TO AROUND -15 CELSIUS AND
AROUND 7 CELSIUS AT 850 MB. LAPSE RATES ARE RATHER STEEP BELOW A
750 MB INVERSION. THIS INVERSION SHOULD KEEP ANY SHOWER POTENTIAL
VERY LOW.

BRISK NORTH WINDS CONTINUE NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN AS HIGH PRESSURE
BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE GFS/ECMWF AND DGEX. THE MID/UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES
TO DIG ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS AND UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ALTHOUGH THE COOL AIR ALOFT COULD BRING
DIURNAL SHOWERS...TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

.THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

THE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH BECOMES MORE BROAD AND RETROGRADES A
LITTLE TOWARD THE WEST.

THIS BRINGS MORE DIURNAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND CONTINUES THE
RATHER COOL SUMMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN IS CURRENTLY PUSHING OFFSHORE...WITH LATEST
MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGESTING MAINLY DRY WEATHER AFTER THAT. LINGERED
SOME LOW POPS INTO THE EVENING...GOING DRY ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FOR SATURDAY...THOUGH A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD
GENERALLY IMPROVE BY EVENING...WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THEN
EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

COULD SEE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS DEVELOP LATER SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY AS NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASE.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TONIGHT/SATURDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...DDV
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HENTZ




000
FXUS63 KMKX 251933
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
233 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...

.TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN IS CURRENTLY PUSHING OFFSHORE...WITH LATEST
MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGESTING MAINLY DRY WEATHER AFTER THAT. LOW LEVEL
JET AND BEST WARM ADVECTION WILL BE FOCUSED FARTHER SOUTH
TONIGHT...SO HAVE LOWERED POPS QUITE A BIT. LINGERED SOME LOW POPS
INTO THE EVENING...GOING DRY ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

MODELS SHOWING A GOOD AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY TOMORROW...BUT SOUNDINGS
LOOK PRETTY CAPPED THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. TROUGH AXIS WILL BE
EXITING IN THE MORNING...WITH NOT MUCH OF A TRIGGER THROUGH THE REST
OF THE DAY. GIVEN ALL THIS...DECIDED TO KEEP POPS DRY...THOUGH A
STRAY SHOWER OR STORM NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

925 MB TEMPS SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 22-24C RANGE...SO KEPT MID 80S
GOING MOST PLACES...WITH A FEW SPOTS GETTING INTO THE UPPER 80S
GIVEN ENOUGH SUN. DEWPOINTS WILL BE BACK UP INTO THE MID 60S TO
AROUND 70...SO IT WILL BE A STICKY DAY.

.SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

THE ZONAL FLOW BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AS A MID/UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO DROP SOUTHEAST TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND INTO LOWER MICHIGAN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER
DIVERGENCE AND 700 MB UPWARD MOTION INCREASES SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING UNTIL THE 250 MB TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS LAKE
MICHIGAN SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

NSHARP HAIL PARAMETERS STILL INDICATE A MARGINAL SEVERE POTENTIAL
SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE CAP WEAKENS WITH ELEVATED CAPE AROUND 2500
JOULES/KM WITH 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES AROUND 7.5 CELSIUS/KM.
HOWEVER SOUNDINGS ARE FAIRLY DRY BELOW 12 THSD FT UNTIL SUNRISE
WHEN MOISTURE INCREASES ABOVE A LOW LEVEL INVERSION AROUND 900 MB.

NAM INCREASES PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...WITH THE 00Z
ECMWF PRODUCING AROUND 0.50 INCH AMOUNTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. BY
AFTERNOON THE NAM DECREASES CAPE...AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS.

.SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES. 500 MB TEMPERATURES COOL TO AROUND -15 CELSIUS AND
AROUND 7 CELSIUS AT 850 MB. LAPSE RATES ARE RATHER STEEP BELOW A
750 MB INVERSION. THIS INVERSION SHOULD KEEP ANY SHOWER POTENTIAL
VERY LOW.

BRISK NORTH WINDS CONTINUE NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN AS HIGH PRESSURE
BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE GFS/ECMWF AND DGEX. THE MID/UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES
TO DIG ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS AND UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ALTHOUGH THE COOL AIR ALOFT COULD BRING
DIURNAL SHOWERS...TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

.THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

THE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH BECOMES MORE BROAD AND RETROGRADES A
LITTLE TOWARD THE WEST.

THIS BRINGS MORE DIURNAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND CONTINUES THE
RATHER COOL SUMMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN IS CURRENTLY PUSHING OFFSHORE...WITH LATEST
MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGESTING MAINLY DRY WEATHER AFTER THAT. LINGERED
SOME LOW POPS INTO THE EVENING...GOING DRY ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FOR SATURDAY...THOUGH A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD
GENERALLY IMPROVE BY EVENING...WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THEN
EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

COULD SEE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS DEVELOP LATER SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY AS NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASE.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TONIGHT/SATURDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...DDV
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HENTZ





000
FXUS63 KMKX 251511 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1011 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.UPDATE...

CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY AS WARM ADVECTION LINGERS ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. BEST
CHANCE LOOKS TO BE FROM LATE THIS MORNING UNTIL AROUND 4 PM OR SO
GIVEN LATEST RAP AND HRRR. MIGHT HAVE TO LOWER AFTERNOON HIGHS A
BIT GIVEN EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY AS WARM ADVECTION LINGERS ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. BEST
CHANCE LOOKS TO BE FROM LATE THIS MORNING UNTIL AROUND 4 PM OR SO
GIVEN LATEST RAP AND HRRR. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL
PERSIST INTO TONIGHT AS THE TROUGH AXIS AND SFC FRONT APPROACH.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY...THROUGH
UPSTREAM OBS AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MVFR
CIGS AT TIMES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 558 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014/

UPDATE...

CHANGED WORDING IN FORECAST TO ISOLATED/SCATTERED AS OBS UNDER UPSTREAM
RETURNS APPROACHING PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL WI ARE REPORTING
SPRINKLES/LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH TRACE AMOUNTS. A FEW GROUND
STROKES WEST OF MADISON SO ISOLATED/SCT THUNDERSTORMS THERE.

ALSO EXPANDED POPS FOR LATER THIS MORNING AS LINE OF CONVECTION
MOVING INTO WEST CENTRAL WI TRACKING MORE WITH THE 850-300 MB MEAN
WIND ALMOST DUE EAST VERSUS THE ANTICIPATED SOUTH-SOUTHEAST PER
CORFIDI VECTORS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

POCKETS OF CONVECTION EXTENDING FROM NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND
SW MN INTO ERN NEBRASKA DEVELOPING ALONG LEADING EDGE OF SFC TO
850 MB MOISTURE PLUME IN REGION OF DEEP MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND
THETA-E ADVECTION AHEAD OF 850 MB LOW/SFC LOW WITH MOST UNSTABLE
CAPE OF 1000 J/KG OR HIGHER.

THESE POCKETS OF CONVECTION ARE SETTING UP TO THE SW AND WEST OF
STRONG 850 MB FRONTOGENETIC RESPONSE TO THE LOW LEVEL JET
IMPINGING ON 850 MB BAROCLINIC ZONE STRETCHING ACROSS W CENTRAL TO
SOUTH CENTRAL MN INTO NE IOWA.

HI RES/RAPID UPDATE MODELS CATCHING ON TO LACK OF MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY OVER WI AND KEEPING PCPN OUT OF CWA UNTIL AFTER
12Z...WITH A FEW ACCAS SPRINKLES POSSIBLE BEFORE THEN.

MODELS AGREE THAT AREAL COVERAGE AND AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION WILL
DIMINISH AS WEAKENING FORCING AND OMEGA PUSHES ACROSS STATE WITH
DIURNALLY WEAKENING LLJ THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP
POPS IN CHANCE/SCATTERED CATEGORY AND MAINLY SHOWERS WITH ONLY A
SLGT CHANCE OF THUNDER DUE TO CAPPING AND MARGINAL MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES.

LOOKING FOR A BREAK IN THE PCPN MID AFTERNOON...THEN REDEVELOPING
AS LOW LEVEL JET BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. CAP AT 700 MB ERODES EARLY TO MID EVENING...BUT STILL
SOME QUESTION TO AMOUNT OF SURFACE BASED CAPE. HOWEVER DECENT
ELEVATED CAPE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. 0 TO 6KM SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR
SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS...AND WITH STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...SOME HAIL NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THOUGH PROBABILITY FOR
SEVERE HAIL IS LOW. PW/S REACH NEAR 2 INCHES BY 06Z SO HEAVY
DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE... ESPECIALLY IN THE FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST.

SHORT TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS MEDIUM.

MODELS SHOWING QPF ASSOCIATED WITH MAIN PUSH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION
MOVING OFF TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY. AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOWING CAPPED AIRMASS OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...WITH NOT MUCH
FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION SEEN. THUS...KEPT SATURDAY DRY
ACROSS THE AREA. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...WITH
HIGHS REACHING THE MID 80S IN MOST AREAS PER 925 MB TEMPERATURE
FIELDS.

KEPT LOW POPS IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH
APPROACH OF 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH. HOWEVER...THIS WILL STILL
HAVE TO CONTEND WITH FAIRLY STRONG CAP OVER THE AREA. SO...MOST OF
THE NIGHT MAY REMAIN DRY IN THIS AREA.

MODELS THEN BRING COLD FRONT SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH TRAILING 500 MB SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. AREA
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO MIX OUT CAP DURING THE DAY...THOUGH IT MAY
BE AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

KEPT LIKELY POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS MOST OF SUNDAY...THOUGH BEST
CHANCES WILL BE IN THE MORNING BEFORE FRONTAL PASSAGE. SOME
QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH MEAN LAYER CAPE WILL EXIST BEFORE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. THIS WILL DETERMINE IF THERE WILL BE A HAIL
RISK...GIVEN THE STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR.

COLD AIR ADVECTION SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BRING IN COOLER AND LESS
HUMID AIR...AND END THE POPS DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

GFS/ECMWF SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE SLIDE SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION MONDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. 500 MB TROUGH REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE NORTHEAST AND
MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES...WITH NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION.

VARIOUS 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMA MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THIS
TIME. ENOUGH MOISTURE LINGERS TO CARRY LOWER END POPS FOR MOST OF
THIS PERIOD. CONTINUED POPS THROUGH THURSDAY USING CONSENSUS
POPS...AS OVERALL PATTERN LINGERS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE PLEASANT
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

AGAIN WATCHING CURRENT ACCAS SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO TIMING INTO TAF SITES. STILL LOOKS LIKE KMSN AND
POINTS WEST HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WITH VERY BRIEF MVFR VSBYS THIS MORNING...WITH ONLY AN ISOLATED
LIGHT VFR SHOWER/SPRINKLES AT EASTERN TAF SITES. BETTER CHANCE
FOR THUNDER COMES LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING TO ALL SITES. WILL
TRY TO HONE IN ON MOST LIKELY TIMES AT EACH SITE...BUT EVEN VARIED
SHORT-TERM MODEL DIFFERENCES HANDLING CURRENT PCPN...AS WELL AS
TIMING/AMOUNTS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. WILL CARRY PREVAILING VFR
WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH THUNDER.

MARINE...

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS REMAIN LOW ENOUGH TO NOT CAUSE ANY
WIND/WAVE ISSUES INTO SUNDAY EVENING. LOOKING AT THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES INCREASING LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...AND AGAIN ON
SUNDAY.

NORTH WINDS TO INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BRINGING
WINDS/WAVES TOWARD SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS...AS WELL AS A
BEACH HAZARD POTENTIAL ON MONDAY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DDV
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...REM
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WOOD





000
FXUS63 KMKX 251058 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
558 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.UPDATE...

CHANGED WORDING IN FORECAST TO ISOLATED/SCATTERED AS OBS UNDER UPSTREAM
RETURNS APPROACHING PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL WI ARE REPORTING
SPRINKLES/LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH TRACE AMOUNTS. A FEW GROUND
STROKES WEST OF MADISON SO ISOLATED/SCT THUNDERSTORMS THERE.

ALSO EXPANDED POPS FOR LATER THIS MORNING AS LINE OF CONVECTION
MOVING INTO WEST CENTRAL WI TRACKING MORE WITH THE 850-300 MB MEAN
WIND ALMOST DUE EAST VERSUS THE ANTICIPATED SOUTH-SOUTHEAST PER
CORFIDI VECTORS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

POCKETS OF CONVECTION EXTENDING FROM NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND
SW MN INTO ERN NEBRASKA DEVELOPING ALONG LEADING EDGE OF SFC TO
850 MB MOISTURE PLUME IN REGION OF DEEP MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND
THETA-E ADVECTION AHEAD OF 850 MB LOW/SFC LOW WITH MOST UNSTABLE
CAPE OF 1000 J/KG OR HIGHER.

THESE POCKETS OF CONVECTION ARE SETTING UP TO THE SW AND WEST OF
STRONG 850 MB FRONTOGENETIC RESPONSE TO THE LOW LEVEL JET
IMPINGING ON 850 MB BAROCLINIC ZONE STRETCHING ACROSS W CENTRAL TO
SOUTH CENTRAL MN INTO NE IOWA.

HI RES/RAPID UPDATE MODELS CATCHING ON TO LACK OF MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY OVER WI AND KEEPING PCPN OUT OF CWA UNTIL AFTER
12Z...WITH A FEW ACCAS SPRINKLES POSSIBLE BEFORE THEN.

MODELS AGREE THAT AREAL COVERAGE AND AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION WILL
DIMINISH AS WEAKENING FORCING AND OMEGA PUSHES ACROSS STATE WITH
DIURNALLY WEAKENING LLJ THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP
POPS IN CHANCE/SCATTERED CATEGORY AND MAINLY SHOWERS WITH ONLY A
SLGT CHANCE OF THUNDER DUE TO CAPPING AND MARGINAL MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES.

LOOKING FOR A BREAK IN THE PCPN MID AFTERNOON...THEN REDEVELOPING
AS LOW LEVEL JET BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. CAP AT 700 MB ERODES EARLY TO MID EVENING...BUT STILL
SOME QUESTION TO AMOUNT OF SURFACE BASED CAPE. HOWEVER DECENT
ELEVATED CAPE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. 0 TO 6KM SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR
SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS...AND WITH STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...SOME HAIL NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THOUGH PROBABILITY FOR
SEVERE HAIL IS LOW. PW/S REACH NEAR 2 INCHES BY 06Z SO HEAVY
DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE... ESPECIALLY IN THE FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST.

SHORT TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS MEDIUM.

MODELS SHOWING QPF ASSOCIATED WITH MAIN PUSH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION
MOVING OFF TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY. AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOWING CAPPED AIRMASS OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...WITH NOT MUCH
FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION SEEN. THUS...KEPT SATURDAY DRY
ACROSS THE AREA. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...WITH
HIGHS REACHING THE MID 80S IN MOST AREAS PER 925 MB TEMPERATURE
FIELDS.

KEPT LOW POPS IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH
APPROACH OF 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH. HOWEVER...THIS WILL STILL
HAVE TO CONTEND WITH FAIRLY STRONG CAP OVER THE AREA. SO...MOST OF
THE NIGHT MAY REMAIN DRY IN THIS AREA.

MODELS THEN BRING COLD FRONT SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH TRAILING 500 MB SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. AREA
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO MIX OUT CAP DURING THE DAY...THOUGH IT MAY
BE AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

KEPT LIKELY POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS MOST OF SUNDAY...THOUGH BEST
CHANCES WILL BE IN THE MORNING BEFORE FRONTAL PASSAGE. SOME
QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH MEAN LAYER CAPE WILL EXIST BEFORE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. THIS WILL DETERMINE IF THERE WILL BE A HAIL
RISK...GIVEN THE STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR.

COLD AIR ADVECTION SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BRING IN COOLER AND LESS
HUMID AIR...AND END THE POPS DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

GFS/ECMWF SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE SLIDE SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION MONDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. 500 MB TROUGH REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE NORTHEAST AND
MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES...WITH NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION.

VARIOUS 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMA MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THIS
TIME. ENOUGH MOISTURE LINGERS TO CARRY LOWER END POPS FOR MOST OF
THIS PERIOD. CONTINUED POPS THROUGH THURSDAY USING CONSENSUS
POPS...AS OVERALL PATTERN LINGERS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE PLEASANT
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

AGAIN WATCHING CURRENT ACCAS SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO TIMING INTO TAF SITES. STILL LOOKS LIKE KMSN AND
POINTS WEST HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WITH VERY BRIEF MVFR VSBYS THIS MORNING...WITH ONLY AN ISOLATED
LIGHT VFR SHOWER/SPRINKLES AT EASTERN TAF SITES. BETTER CHANCE
FOR THUNDER COMES LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING TO ALL SITES. WILL
TRY TO HONE IN ON MOST LIKELY TIMES AT EACH SITE...BUT EVEN VARIED
SHORT-TERM MODEL DIFFERENCES HANDLING CURRENT PCPN...AS WELL AS
TIMING/AMOUNTS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. WILL CARRY PREVAILING VFR
WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH THUNDER.

MARINE...

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS REMAIN LOW ENOUGH TO NOT CAUSE ANY
WIND/WAVE ISSUES INTO SUNDAY EVENING. LOOKING AT THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES INCREASING LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...AND AGAIN ON
SUNDAY.

NORTH WINDS TO INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BRINGING
WINDS/WAVES TOWARD SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS...AS WELL AS A
BEACH HAZARD POTENTIAL ON MONDAY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...REM
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...REM
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WOOD





000
FXUS63 KMKX 251058 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
558 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.UPDATE...

CHANGED WORDING IN FORECAST TO ISOLATED/SCATTERED AS OBS UNDER UPSTREAM
RETURNS APPROACHING PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL WI ARE REPORTING
SPRINKLES/LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH TRACE AMOUNTS. A FEW GROUND
STROKES WEST OF MADISON SO ISOLATED/SCT THUNDERSTORMS THERE.

ALSO EXPANDED POPS FOR LATER THIS MORNING AS LINE OF CONVECTION
MOVING INTO WEST CENTRAL WI TRACKING MORE WITH THE 850-300 MB MEAN
WIND ALMOST DUE EAST VERSUS THE ANTICIPATED SOUTH-SOUTHEAST PER
CORFIDI VECTORS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

POCKETS OF CONVECTION EXTENDING FROM NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND
SW MN INTO ERN NEBRASKA DEVELOPING ALONG LEADING EDGE OF SFC TO
850 MB MOISTURE PLUME IN REGION OF DEEP MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND
THETA-E ADVECTION AHEAD OF 850 MB LOW/SFC LOW WITH MOST UNSTABLE
CAPE OF 1000 J/KG OR HIGHER.

THESE POCKETS OF CONVECTION ARE SETTING UP TO THE SW AND WEST OF
STRONG 850 MB FRONTOGENETIC RESPONSE TO THE LOW LEVEL JET
IMPINGING ON 850 MB BAROCLINIC ZONE STRETCHING ACROSS W CENTRAL TO
SOUTH CENTRAL MN INTO NE IOWA.

HI RES/RAPID UPDATE MODELS CATCHING ON TO LACK OF MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY OVER WI AND KEEPING PCPN OUT OF CWA UNTIL AFTER
12Z...WITH A FEW ACCAS SPRINKLES POSSIBLE BEFORE THEN.

MODELS AGREE THAT AREAL COVERAGE AND AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION WILL
DIMINISH AS WEAKENING FORCING AND OMEGA PUSHES ACROSS STATE WITH
DIURNALLY WEAKENING LLJ THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP
POPS IN CHANCE/SCATTERED CATEGORY AND MAINLY SHOWERS WITH ONLY A
SLGT CHANCE OF THUNDER DUE TO CAPPING AND MARGINAL MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES.

LOOKING FOR A BREAK IN THE PCPN MID AFTERNOON...THEN REDEVELOPING
AS LOW LEVEL JET BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. CAP AT 700 MB ERODES EARLY TO MID EVENING...BUT STILL
SOME QUESTION TO AMOUNT OF SURFACE BASED CAPE. HOWEVER DECENT
ELEVATED CAPE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. 0 TO 6KM SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR
SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS...AND WITH STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...SOME HAIL NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THOUGH PROBABILITY FOR
SEVERE HAIL IS LOW. PW/S REACH NEAR 2 INCHES BY 06Z SO HEAVY
DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE... ESPECIALLY IN THE FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST.

SHORT TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS MEDIUM.

MODELS SHOWING QPF ASSOCIATED WITH MAIN PUSH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION
MOVING OFF TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY. AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOWING CAPPED AIRMASS OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...WITH NOT MUCH
FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION SEEN. THUS...KEPT SATURDAY DRY
ACROSS THE AREA. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...WITH
HIGHS REACHING THE MID 80S IN MOST AREAS PER 925 MB TEMPERATURE
FIELDS.

KEPT LOW POPS IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH
APPROACH OF 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH. HOWEVER...THIS WILL STILL
HAVE TO CONTEND WITH FAIRLY STRONG CAP OVER THE AREA. SO...MOST OF
THE NIGHT MAY REMAIN DRY IN THIS AREA.

MODELS THEN BRING COLD FRONT SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH TRAILING 500 MB SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. AREA
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO MIX OUT CAP DURING THE DAY...THOUGH IT MAY
BE AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

KEPT LIKELY POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS MOST OF SUNDAY...THOUGH BEST
CHANCES WILL BE IN THE MORNING BEFORE FRONTAL PASSAGE. SOME
QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH MEAN LAYER CAPE WILL EXIST BEFORE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. THIS WILL DETERMINE IF THERE WILL BE A HAIL
RISK...GIVEN THE STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR.

COLD AIR ADVECTION SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BRING IN COOLER AND LESS
HUMID AIR...AND END THE POPS DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

GFS/ECMWF SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE SLIDE SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION MONDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. 500 MB TROUGH REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE NORTHEAST AND
MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES...WITH NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION.

VARIOUS 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMA MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THIS
TIME. ENOUGH MOISTURE LINGERS TO CARRY LOWER END POPS FOR MOST OF
THIS PERIOD. CONTINUED POPS THROUGH THURSDAY USING CONSENSUS
POPS...AS OVERALL PATTERN LINGERS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE PLEASANT
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

AGAIN WATCHING CURRENT ACCAS SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO TIMING INTO TAF SITES. STILL LOOKS LIKE KMSN AND
POINTS WEST HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WITH VERY BRIEF MVFR VSBYS THIS MORNING...WITH ONLY AN ISOLATED
LIGHT VFR SHOWER/SPRINKLES AT EASTERN TAF SITES. BETTER CHANCE
FOR THUNDER COMES LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING TO ALL SITES. WILL
TRY TO HONE IN ON MOST LIKELY TIMES AT EACH SITE...BUT EVEN VARIED
SHORT-TERM MODEL DIFFERENCES HANDLING CURRENT PCPN...AS WELL AS
TIMING/AMOUNTS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. WILL CARRY PREVAILING VFR
WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH THUNDER.

MARINE...

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS REMAIN LOW ENOUGH TO NOT CAUSE ANY
WIND/WAVE ISSUES INTO SUNDAY EVENING. LOOKING AT THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES INCREASING LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...AND AGAIN ON
SUNDAY.

NORTH WINDS TO INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BRINGING
WINDS/WAVES TOWARD SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS...AS WELL AS A
BEACH HAZARD POTENTIAL ON MONDAY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...REM
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...REM
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WOOD




000
FXUS63 KMKX 250845
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
345 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

POCKETS OF CONVECTION EXTENDING FROM NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND
SW MN INTO ERN NEBRASKA DEVELOPING ALONG LEADING EDGE OF SFC TO
850 MB MOISTURE PLUME IN REGION OF DEEP MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND
THETA-E ADVECTION AHEAD OF 850 MB LOW/SFC LOW WITH MOST UNSTABLE
CAPE OF 1000 J/KG OR HIGHER.

THESE POCKETS OF CONVECTION ARE SETTING UP TO THE SW AND WEST OF
STRONG 850 MB FRONTOGENETIC RESPONSE TO THE LOW LEVEL JET
IMPINGING ON 850 MB BAROCLINIC ZONE STRETCHING ACROSS W CENTRAL TO
SOUTH CENTRAL MN INTO NE IOWA.

HI RES/RAPID UPDATE MODELS CATCHING ON TO LACK OF MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY OVER WI AND KEEPING PCPN OUT OF CWA UNTIL AFTER
12Z...WITH A FEW ACCAS SPRINKLES POSSIBLE BEFORE THEN.

MODELS AGREE THAT AREAL COVERAGE AND AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION WILL
DIMINISH AS WEAKENING FORCING AND OMEGA PUSHES ACROSS STATE WITH
DIURNALLY WEAKENING LLJ THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP
POPS IN CHANCE/SCATTERED CATEGORY AND MAINLY SHOWERS WITH ONLY A
SLGT CHANCE OF THUNDER DUE TO CAPPING AND MARGINAL MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES.

LOOKING FOR A BREAK IN THE PCPN MID AFTERNOON...THEN REDEVELOPING
AS LOW LEVEL JET BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. CAP AT 700 MB ERODES EARLY TO MID EVENING...BUT STILL
SOME QUESTION TO AMOUNT OF SURFACE BASED CAPE. HOWEVER DECENT
ELEVATED CAPE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. 0 TO 6KM SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR
SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS...AND WITH STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...SOME HAIL NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THOUGH PROBABILITY FOR
SEVERE HAIL IS LOW. PW/S REACH NEAR 2 INCHES BY 06Z SO HEAVY
DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE... ESPECIALLY IN THE FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST.

.SHORT TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS MEDIUM.

MODELS SHOWING QPF ASSOCIATED WITH MAIN PUSH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION
MOVING OFF TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY. AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOWING CAPPED AIRMASS OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...WITH NOT MUCH
FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION SEEN. THUS...KEPT SATURDAY DRY
ACROSS THE AREA. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...WITH
HIGHS REACHING THE MID 80S IN MOST AREAS PER 925 MB TEMPERATURE
FIELDS.

KEPT LOW POPS IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH
APPROACH OF 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH. HOWEVER...THIS WILL STILL
HAVE TO CONTEND WITH FAIRLY STRONG CAP OVER THE AREA. SO...MOST OF
THE NIGHT MAY REMAIN DRY IN THIS AREA.

MODELS THEN BRING COLD FRONT SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH TRAILING 500 MB SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. AREA
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO MIX OUT CAP DURING THE DAY...THOUGH IT MAY
BE AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

KEPT LIKELY POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS MOST OF SUNDAY...THOUGH BEST
CHANCES WILL BE IN THE MORNING BEFORE FRONTAL PASSAGE. SOME
QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH MEAN LAYER CAPE WILL EXIST BEFORE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. THIS WILL DETERMINE IF THERE WILL BE A HAIL
RISK...GIVEN THE STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR.

COLD AIR ADVECTION SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BRING IN COOLER AND LESS
HUMID AIR...AND END THE POPS DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

GFS/ECMWF SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE SLIDE SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION MONDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. 500 MB TROUGH REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE NORTHEAST AND
MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES...WITH NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION.

VARIOUS 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMA MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THIS
TIME. ENOUGH MOISTURE LINGERS TO CARRY LOWER END POPS FOR MOST OF
THIS PERIOD. CONTINUED POPS THROUGH THURSDAY USING CONSENSUS
POPS...AS OVERALL PATTERN LINGERS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE PLEASANT
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...COMING SHORTLY...

&&

.MARINE...COMING SHORTLY...

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...REM
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WOOD





000
FXUS63 KMKX 250158
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
858 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.UPDATE...
IT/S LOOKING PRETTY QUIET ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR TONIGHT.
THE GENESIS AREA FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE
OF AN ORPHANED COLD POOL LEFT OVER FROM EARLIER CONVECTION OVER
MN AND IOWA. THE LOW LEVEL JET IS INCREASING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND WILL IMPINGE ON THIS COLD POOL AFTER MIDNIGHT RESULTING
IN A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING WELL UPSTREAM OF
WISCONSIN. I LIKE THE LATEST HRRR TRENDS AND OTHER HI RES MODELS
FROM EARLIER TODAY. THEY SHOW THE PRECIP MOVING EAST...BUT THEN
TAKING A DIVE TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WITH TIME...CONSISTENT WITH
CORFIDI VECTORS AND THE BETTER FORCING WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET
TRENDS. THE AIR MASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA IS QUITE DRY AND IT/S
NOT EXPECTED TO REALLY MOISTEN UP UNTIL FRI AFTERNOON. SO THIS
INITIAL CONVECTION MAY JUST FIZZLE AS IT MOVES IN TOWARD 12Z
FRI...WITH THE BETTER ACTION MOVING ACROSS EASTERN IOWA AND
POSSIBLY ILLINOIS. CURRENT RADAR AND THE HRRR SHOWS A VERY
ELEVATED BAND OF SHOWERS OVER NCNTRL WI MOVING SOUTHEAST. THIS
LOOKS TO BE WITH SOME WARM ADVECTION AND COULD EXPAND INTO THE
FORECAST AREA LATER ON. CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW AND AT THIS POINT
WILL IGNORE IT FOR NOW.

ONLY ADJUSTMENT TO THE FORECAST TONIGHT IS TO DELAY THE PRECIP
INTO THE WEST A FEW HOURS...OTHERWISE NOT MUCH NEED FOR
ADJUSTMENTS AT THIS POINT GIVEN LIMITED NEW DATA.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER ABOUT 15Z AT KMSN...BUT THIS WILL LIKELY BE
FROM A DIMINISHING LINE OF STORMS ARRIVING FROM THE WEST. WILL
HOLD OFF ON MENTION STORMS UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND AT THIS
POINT IT WILL ONLY BE VICINITY TERMINOLOGY. THERE IS GROWING
EVIDENCE THAT PRECIP WILL STAY MOSTLY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/

SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW.

PLAN ON CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ACROSS SOUTHERN WI THIS
EVENING. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
MN AROUND MIDNIGHT AND SLIDE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE 850MB TEMP GRADIENT
AND WITH THE CORFIDI VECTORS. THESE MAY CLIP SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN
LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE LOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN DRY
THROUGH THE NIGHT...SO IT IS A QUESTION OF HOW STRONG THE ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING THE AREA END UP BEING TO DETERMINE IF THEY
CAN SATURATE FROM THE TOP DOWN AND PRECIPITATE. OVERALL FORCING
APPEARS QUITE WEAK OVER SOUTHERN WI IN THE ABSENCE OF A STRONG
SHORTWAVE OR FAVORABLE POSITION OF THE UPPER JET. I
CONTINUED THE LIKELY POPS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL WI FRI MORNING DUE TO
THE 12Z SYNOPTIC SCALE MODELS. HOWEVER...I DO NOT HAVE VERY MUCH
CONFIDENCE IN THIS GIVEN THE WRF-ARW AND WRF-NMM MODELS AND EVEN
EARLY SIGNS IN THE HRRR.

THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET /LLJ/ WILL POINT INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MN
AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND THEN VEER SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
WI MIDDAY FRIDAY. THE LLJ WILL BE THE MAIN DRIVER FOR ANY
CONVECTION AND IT ALL LOOKS ELEVATED. MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE
FOR PRECIP PLACEMENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON. PERSISTENT 850MB WARM AIR
ADVECTION...THE NOSE OF THE LLJ AND WEAK SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY COULD BE
ENOUGH TO DEVELOP SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THE AFTERNOON. ELEVATED CAPE COULD BE UP TO 1000 J/KG WITH DECENT
SHEAR. IF STORMS DEVELOP...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME HALF INCH TO ONE
INCH HAIL.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES ZONAL WITH A WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW AS A 100
KNOT JET MAX OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS PUSHES EAST SOUTHEAST
TOWARD THE WISCONSIN/ILLINOIS BORDER. WEAK UPPER DIVERGENCE
EXISTS ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.

THE 700 MB THERMAL RIDGE EXTENDS INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN FRIDAY
NIGHT...THEN SAGGING SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS SATURDAY.
WEAK 700 MB UPWARD MOTION MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN FRIDAY
NIGHT ALONG WITH A SUBTLE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE. 700 MB RH DRIES
FRIDAY NIGHT AND IS VERY LOW SATURDAY. 850 MB RH IS SATURATED
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH DEW POINTS OF 16 TO 18 CELSIUS AND DRIES FROM
THE WEST SATURDAY. SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN IS AT THE NOSE OF THE
40 KNOT 850 MB LOW LEVEL JET FRIDAY EVENING BEFORE IT SAGS SOUTH.
THE NAM BRINGS SOME PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THE
NAM HAS ALMOST 3000 JOULES/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE LIFTING FROM AROUND
870 MB. NSHARP HAIL PARAMETERS INDICATE A SEVERE POTENTIAL FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE HAIL PARAMETERS INCREASE SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH A STRONG
CAP AT 825 MB WOULD LIKELY PREVENT ANY DEEP MOIST CONVECTION.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

THE ZONAL FLOW BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AS A MID/UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO DROP SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA
SATURDAY NIGHT....AND INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY. THE
UPPER DIVERGENCE AND 700 MB CONVERGENCE INCREASES AGAIN SUNDAY.

NSHARP HAIL PARAMETERS STILL INDICATE A SEVERE POTENTIAL SUNDAY
MORNING AS THE CAP WEAKENS. NAM INCREASES PRECIPITATION DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES CONTINUES TO DIG ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES MONDAY...AND SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS AND UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ALTHOUGH THE COOL AIR ALOFT COULD BRING
DIURNAL SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

A SECOND SHORTWAVE DROPS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...RETROGRATING THE TROUGH BACK
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

THIS BRINGS MORE DIURNAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND CONTINUES THE
RATHER COOL TEMPERATURES.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH BRINGS INCREASING PCPN CHANCES TO MAINLY THE FAR
WESTERN FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH A
DIMINISHING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX. ANY PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF MADISON.

THERE IS A GENERAL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR THE WHOLE AREA. OVERALL WEAK FORCING...BUT MODERATE
INSTABILITY COULD LEAD TO SMALL HAIL IF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DAVIS
TONIGHT/FRIDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MRC
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...HENTZ





000
FXUS63 KMKX 250158
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
858 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.UPDATE...
IT/S LOOKING PRETTY QUIET ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR TONIGHT.
THE GENESIS AREA FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE
OF AN ORPHANED COLD POOL LEFT OVER FROM EARLIER CONVECTION OVER
MN AND IOWA. THE LOW LEVEL JET IS INCREASING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND WILL IMPINGE ON THIS COLD POOL AFTER MIDNIGHT RESULTING
IN A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING WELL UPSTREAM OF
WISCONSIN. I LIKE THE LATEST HRRR TRENDS AND OTHER HI RES MODELS
FROM EARLIER TODAY. THEY SHOW THE PRECIP MOVING EAST...BUT THEN
TAKING A DIVE TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WITH TIME...CONSISTENT WITH
CORFIDI VECTORS AND THE BETTER FORCING WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET
TRENDS. THE AIR MASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA IS QUITE DRY AND IT/S
NOT EXPECTED TO REALLY MOISTEN UP UNTIL FRI AFTERNOON. SO THIS
INITIAL CONVECTION MAY JUST FIZZLE AS IT MOVES IN TOWARD 12Z
FRI...WITH THE BETTER ACTION MOVING ACROSS EASTERN IOWA AND
POSSIBLY ILLINOIS. CURRENT RADAR AND THE HRRR SHOWS A VERY
ELEVATED BAND OF SHOWERS OVER NCNTRL WI MOVING SOUTHEAST. THIS
LOOKS TO BE WITH SOME WARM ADVECTION AND COULD EXPAND INTO THE
FORECAST AREA LATER ON. CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW AND AT THIS POINT
WILL IGNORE IT FOR NOW.

ONLY ADJUSTMENT TO THE FORECAST TONIGHT IS TO DELAY THE PRECIP
INTO THE WEST A FEW HOURS...OTHERWISE NOT MUCH NEED FOR
ADJUSTMENTS AT THIS POINT GIVEN LIMITED NEW DATA.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER ABOUT 15Z AT KMSN...BUT THIS WILL LIKELY BE
FROM A DIMINISHING LINE OF STORMS ARRIVING FROM THE WEST. WILL
HOLD OFF ON MENTION STORMS UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND AT THIS
POINT IT WILL ONLY BE VICINITY TERMINOLOGY. THERE IS GROWING
EVIDENCE THAT PRECIP WILL STAY MOSTLY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/

SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW.

PLAN ON CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ACROSS SOUTHERN WI THIS
EVENING. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
MN AROUND MIDNIGHT AND SLIDE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE 850MB TEMP GRADIENT
AND WITH THE CORFIDI VECTORS. THESE MAY CLIP SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN
LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE LOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN DRY
THROUGH THE NIGHT...SO IT IS A QUESTION OF HOW STRONG THE ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING THE AREA END UP BEING TO DETERMINE IF THEY
CAN SATURATE FROM THE TOP DOWN AND PRECIPITATE. OVERALL FORCING
APPEARS QUITE WEAK OVER SOUTHERN WI IN THE ABSENCE OF A STRONG
SHORTWAVE OR FAVORABLE POSITION OF THE UPPER JET. I
CONTINUED THE LIKELY POPS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL WI FRI MORNING DUE TO
THE 12Z SYNOPTIC SCALE MODELS. HOWEVER...I DO NOT HAVE VERY MUCH
CONFIDENCE IN THIS GIVEN THE WRF-ARW AND WRF-NMM MODELS AND EVEN
EARLY SIGNS IN THE HRRR.

THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET /LLJ/ WILL POINT INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MN
AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND THEN VEER SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
WI MIDDAY FRIDAY. THE LLJ WILL BE THE MAIN DRIVER FOR ANY
CONVECTION AND IT ALL LOOKS ELEVATED. MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE
FOR PRECIP PLACEMENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON. PERSISTENT 850MB WARM AIR
ADVECTION...THE NOSE OF THE LLJ AND WEAK SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY COULD BE
ENOUGH TO DEVELOP SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THE AFTERNOON. ELEVATED CAPE COULD BE UP TO 1000 J/KG WITH DECENT
SHEAR. IF STORMS DEVELOP...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME HALF INCH TO ONE
INCH HAIL.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES ZONAL WITH A WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW AS A 100
KNOT JET MAX OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS PUSHES EAST SOUTHEAST
TOWARD THE WISCONSIN/ILLINOIS BORDER. WEAK UPPER DIVERGENCE
EXISTS ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.

THE 700 MB THERMAL RIDGE EXTENDS INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN FRIDAY
NIGHT...THEN SAGGING SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS SATURDAY.
WEAK 700 MB UPWARD MOTION MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN FRIDAY
NIGHT ALONG WITH A SUBTLE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE. 700 MB RH DRIES
FRIDAY NIGHT AND IS VERY LOW SATURDAY. 850 MB RH IS SATURATED
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH DEW POINTS OF 16 TO 18 CELSIUS AND DRIES FROM
THE WEST SATURDAY. SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN IS AT THE NOSE OF THE
40 KNOT 850 MB LOW LEVEL JET FRIDAY EVENING BEFORE IT SAGS SOUTH.
THE NAM BRINGS SOME PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THE
NAM HAS ALMOST 3000 JOULES/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE LIFTING FROM AROUND
870 MB. NSHARP HAIL PARAMETERS INDICATE A SEVERE POTENTIAL FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE HAIL PARAMETERS INCREASE SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH A STRONG
CAP AT 825 MB WOULD LIKELY PREVENT ANY DEEP MOIST CONVECTION.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

THE ZONAL FLOW BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AS A MID/UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO DROP SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA
SATURDAY NIGHT....AND INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY. THE
UPPER DIVERGENCE AND 700 MB CONVERGENCE INCREASES AGAIN SUNDAY.

NSHARP HAIL PARAMETERS STILL INDICATE A SEVERE POTENTIAL SUNDAY
MORNING AS THE CAP WEAKENS. NAM INCREASES PRECIPITATION DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES CONTINUES TO DIG ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES MONDAY...AND SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS AND UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ALTHOUGH THE COOL AIR ALOFT COULD BRING
DIURNAL SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

A SECOND SHORTWAVE DROPS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...RETROGRATING THE TROUGH BACK
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

THIS BRINGS MORE DIURNAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND CONTINUES THE
RATHER COOL TEMPERATURES.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH BRINGS INCREASING PCPN CHANCES TO MAINLY THE FAR
WESTERN FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH A
DIMINISHING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX. ANY PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF MADISON.

THERE IS A GENERAL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR THE WHOLE AREA. OVERALL WEAK FORCING...BUT MODERATE
INSTABILITY COULD LEAD TO SMALL HAIL IF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DAVIS
TONIGHT/FRIDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MRC
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...HENTZ




000
FXUS63 KMKX 242044
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
344 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...

.TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW.

PLAN ON CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ACROSS SOUTHERN WI THIS
EVENING. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
MN AROUND MIDNIGHT AND SLIDE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE 850MB TEMP GRADIENT
AND WITH THE CORFIDI VECTORS. THESE MAY CLIP SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN
LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE LOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN DRY
THROUGH THE NIGHT...SO IT IS A QUESTION OF HOW STRONG THE ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING THE AREA END UP BEING TO DETERMINE IF THEY
CAN SATURATE FROM THE TOP DOWN AND PRECIPITATE. OVERALL FORCING
APPEARS QUITE WEAK OVER SOUTHERN WI IN THE ABSENCE OF A STRONG
SHORTWAVE OR FAVORABLE POSITION OF THE UPPER JET. I
CONTINUED THE LIKELY POPS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL WI FRI MORNING DUE TO
THE 12Z SYNOPTIC SCALE MODELS. HOWEVER...I DO NOT HAVE VERY MUCH
CONFIDENCE IN THIS GIVEN THE WRF-ARW AND WRF-NMM MODELS AND EVEN
EARLY SIGNS IN THE HRRR.

THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET /LLJ/ WILL POINT INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MN
AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND THEN VEER SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
WI MIDDAY FRIDAY. THE LLJ WILL BE THE MAIN DRIVER FOR ANY
CONVECTION AND IT ALL LOOKS ELEVATED. MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE
FOR PRECIP PLACEMENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON. PERSISTENT 850MB WARM AIR
ADVECTION...THE NOSE OF THE LLJ AND WEAK SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY COULD BE
ENOUGH TO DEVELOP SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THE AFTERNOON. ELEVATED CAPE COULD BE UP TO 1000 J/KG WITH DECENT
SHEAR. IF STORMS DEVELOP...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME HALF INCH TO ONE
INCH HAIL.

.FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES ZONAL WITH A WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW AS A 100
KNOT JET MAX OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS PUSHES EAST SOUTHEAST
TOWARD THE WISCONSIN/ILLINOIS BORDER. WEAK UPPER DIVERGENCE
EXISTS ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.

THE 700 MB THERMAL RIDGE EXTENDS INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN FRIDAY
NIGHT...THEN SAGGING SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS SATURDAY.
WEAK 700 MB UPWARD MOTION MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN FRIDAY
NIGHT ALONG WITH A SUBTLE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE. 700 MB RH DRIES
FRIDAY NIGHT AND IS VERY LOW SATURDAY. 850 MB RH IS SATURATED
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH DEW POINTS OF 16 TO 18 CELSIUS AND DRIES FROM
THE WEST SATURDAY. SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN IS AT THE NOSE OF THE
40 KNOT 850 MB LOW LEVEL JET FRIDAY EVENING BEFORE IT SAGS SOUTH.
THE NAM BRINGS SOME PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THE
NAM HAS ALMOST 3000 JOULES/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE LIFTING FROM AROUND
870 MB. NSHARP HAIL PARAMETERS INDICATE A SEVERE POTENTIAL FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE HAIL PARAMETERS INCREASE SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH A STRONG
CAP AT 825 MB WOULD LIKELY PREVENT ANY DEEP MOIST CONVECTION.

.SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

THE ZONAL FLOW BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AS A MID/UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO DROP SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA
SATURDAY NIGHT....AND INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY. THE
UPPER DIVERGENCE AND 700 MB CONVERGENCE INCREASES AGAIN SUNDAY.

NSHARP HAIL PARAMETERS STILL INDICATE A SEVERE POTENTIAL SUNDAY
MORNING AS THE CAP WEAKENS. NAM INCREASES PRECIPITATION DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES CONTINUES TO DIG ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES MONDAY...AND SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS AND UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ALTHOUGH THE COOL AIR ALOFT COULD BRING
DIURNAL SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

.THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

A SECOND SHORTWAVE DROPS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...RETROGRATING THE TROUGH BACK
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

THIS BRINGS MORE DIURNAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND CONTINUES THE
RATHER COOL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH BRINGS INCREASING PCPN CHANCES TO MAINLY THE FAR
WESTERN FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH A
DIMINISHING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX. ANY PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF MADISON.

THERE IS A GENERAL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR THE WHOLE AREA. OVERALL WEAK FORCING...BUT MODERATE
INSTABILITY COULD LEAD TO SMALL HAIL IF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TONIGHT/FRIDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MRC
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...HENTZ





000
FXUS63 KMKX 242044
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
344 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...

.TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW.

PLAN ON CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ACROSS SOUTHERN WI THIS
EVENING. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
MN AROUND MIDNIGHT AND SLIDE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE 850MB TEMP GRADIENT
AND WITH THE CORFIDI VECTORS. THESE MAY CLIP SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN
LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE LOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN DRY
THROUGH THE NIGHT...SO IT IS A QUESTION OF HOW STRONG THE ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING THE AREA END UP BEING TO DETERMINE IF THEY
CAN SATURATE FROM THE TOP DOWN AND PRECIPITATE. OVERALL FORCING
APPEARS QUITE WEAK OVER SOUTHERN WI IN THE ABSENCE OF A STRONG
SHORTWAVE OR FAVORABLE POSITION OF THE UPPER JET. I
CONTINUED THE LIKELY POPS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL WI FRI MORNING DUE TO
THE 12Z SYNOPTIC SCALE MODELS. HOWEVER...I DO NOT HAVE VERY MUCH
CONFIDENCE IN THIS GIVEN THE WRF-ARW AND WRF-NMM MODELS AND EVEN
EARLY SIGNS IN THE HRRR.

THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET /LLJ/ WILL POINT INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MN
AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND THEN VEER SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
WI MIDDAY FRIDAY. THE LLJ WILL BE THE MAIN DRIVER FOR ANY
CONVECTION AND IT ALL LOOKS ELEVATED. MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE
FOR PRECIP PLACEMENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON. PERSISTENT 850MB WARM AIR
ADVECTION...THE NOSE OF THE LLJ AND WEAK SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY COULD BE
ENOUGH TO DEVELOP SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THE AFTERNOON. ELEVATED CAPE COULD BE UP TO 1000 J/KG WITH DECENT
SHEAR. IF STORMS DEVELOP...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME HALF INCH TO ONE
INCH HAIL.

.FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES ZONAL WITH A WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW AS A 100
KNOT JET MAX OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS PUSHES EAST SOUTHEAST
TOWARD THE WISCONSIN/ILLINOIS BORDER. WEAK UPPER DIVERGENCE
EXISTS ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.

THE 700 MB THERMAL RIDGE EXTENDS INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN FRIDAY
NIGHT...THEN SAGGING SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS SATURDAY.
WEAK 700 MB UPWARD MOTION MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN FRIDAY
NIGHT ALONG WITH A SUBTLE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE. 700 MB RH DRIES
FRIDAY NIGHT AND IS VERY LOW SATURDAY. 850 MB RH IS SATURATED
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH DEW POINTS OF 16 TO 18 CELSIUS AND DRIES FROM
THE WEST SATURDAY. SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN IS AT THE NOSE OF THE
40 KNOT 850 MB LOW LEVEL JET FRIDAY EVENING BEFORE IT SAGS SOUTH.
THE NAM BRINGS SOME PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THE
NAM HAS ALMOST 3000 JOULES/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE LIFTING FROM AROUND
870 MB. NSHARP HAIL PARAMETERS INDICATE A SEVERE POTENTIAL FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE HAIL PARAMETERS INCREASE SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH A STRONG
CAP AT 825 MB WOULD LIKELY PREVENT ANY DEEP MOIST CONVECTION.

.SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

THE ZONAL FLOW BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AS A MID/UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO DROP SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA
SATURDAY NIGHT....AND INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY. THE
UPPER DIVERGENCE AND 700 MB CONVERGENCE INCREASES AGAIN SUNDAY.

NSHARP HAIL PARAMETERS STILL INDICATE A SEVERE POTENTIAL SUNDAY
MORNING AS THE CAP WEAKENS. NAM INCREASES PRECIPITATION DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES CONTINUES TO DIG ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES MONDAY...AND SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS AND UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ALTHOUGH THE COOL AIR ALOFT COULD BRING
DIURNAL SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

.THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

A SECOND SHORTWAVE DROPS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...RETROGRATING THE TROUGH BACK
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

THIS BRINGS MORE DIURNAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND CONTINUES THE
RATHER COOL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH BRINGS INCREASING PCPN CHANCES TO MAINLY THE FAR
WESTERN FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH A
DIMINISHING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX. ANY PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF MADISON.

THERE IS A GENERAL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR THE WHOLE AREA. OVERALL WEAK FORCING...BUT MODERATE
INSTABILITY COULD LEAD TO SMALL HAIL IF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TONIGHT/FRIDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MRC
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...HENTZ




000
FXUS63 KMKX 241544 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1044 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.UPDATE...


&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH DIURNAL CUMULUS DEVELOPING AT
INLAND TAF SITES TODAY...THOUGH STAYING AT VFR LEVELS AROUND 5K FT.
WINDS NOT AS STRONG TODAY WITH WEAK NE GRADIENT ENHANCING LAKE
BREEZE AT KMKE AND KENW. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORT
WAVE TROUGH BRINGS INCREASING PCPN CHANCES TO MAINLY THE FAR WESTERN
FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. FAIRLY CONFIDENT ANY
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL REMAIN WEST OF KMSN AND CERTAINLY THE EASTERN
TAF SITES THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/

TODAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN DIURNAL
CUMULUS CLOUDS INLAND THE ONLY IMPEDIMENT TO FULL SUN. ONLY
DIFFERENCE FROM WEDNESDAY WILL BE LIGHTER WINDS AS CORE OF SURFACE
HIGH DROPS THROUGH SRN WI...THOUGH LAKE SHORE AREAS WILL SEE THE
LIGHT NORTHEAST GRADIENT WINDS ENHANCED BY A LAKE BREEZE.
CONSEQUENTLY HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT THEY
WERE WEDNESDAY IN THE EAST...WITH HIGHS A FEW DEGREES WARMER IN THE
WEST ONCE A SUPERADIABATIC BUMP IS ADDED TO EXPECTED TEMPS FROM
MIXING UP TO FORECAST 925 MB TEMPERATURES.

TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

STILL VARIATIONS TO TIMING OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH
POTENTIAL MCS DEVELOPING WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE
TROUGH INTO THE CWA...MAINLY TIED TO LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF LOW-
LEVEL JET. AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS THAT KEEPS FOCUS OF LOW-LEVEL JET
WEST OF CWA THROUGH 06Z...THEN IT GRADUALLY WORKS EAST BETWEEN 06Z
AND 12Z. GEM REG AND GEM NH KEEP PCPN OUT OF CWA THROUGH 12Z
FRI...THE 00Z ECMWF BRINGS LIGHT QPF INTO THE WESTERN-MOST THREE
COUNTIES...WITH THE FORCING FROM THE MORE ROBUST LLJ DEPICTED ON THE
NAM AND GFS BRINGING QPF ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA ENDING
AT 12Z FRI. ADJUSTED BLENDED POPS UP IN THE FAR WEST...THOUGH KEPT
IN CHANCE CATEGORY...WHILE LIMITING EASTERN EXTENT OF POPS/QPF TO
BALANCE DIFFERENCES.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

DECENT LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION COMBINED WITH A SHORTWAVE WILL
BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS ON FRIDAY. BEST CHANCE SHOULD BE
IN THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET AND STRONGER
LIFT. CLOUDS AND PRECIP SHOULD KEEP HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID
70S.

CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS TROUGH AXIS
AND SURFACE FRONT MOVE THROUGH. IT LOOKS MAINLY DRY BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH SHOWER/STORM CHANCES RETURNING SUNDAY AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE PUSHES THROUGH.

SHOULD SEE WARMER TEMPS AND HIGHER HUMIDITY SATURDAY...WITH A BIT
OF A COOL DOWN SUNDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

IT SHOULD BE DRY MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE WEST.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND INSTABILITY SLOWLY CREEP BACK UP
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. WENT WITH SOME LOW POPS...AS AN EMBEDDED
WAVE OR TWO IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW MAY KICK OF A FEW SHOWERS OR
STORMS.

TEMPS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WILL GENERALLY BE A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL UNDER THE PREVAILING NORTHWEST FLOW.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH DIURNAL CUMULUS DEVELOPING BY
THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY AT INLAND TAF SITES...THOUGH STAYING AT VFR
LEVELS AROUND 5K FT. WINDS NOT AS STRONG TODAY WITH WEAK NE GRADIENT
ENHANCING LAKE BREEZE AT KMKE AND KENW. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH BRINGS INCREASING PCPN CHANCES TO
MAINLY THE FAR WESTERN FORECAST AREA. FAIRLY CONFIDENT ANY
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL REMAIN WEST OF KMSN AND CERTAINLY THE EASTERN
TAF SITES THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MRC
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...REM
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DDV





000
FXUS63 KMKX 241544 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1044 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.UPDATE...


&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH DIURNAL CUMULUS DEVELOPING AT
INLAND TAF SITES TODAY...THOUGH STAYING AT VFR LEVELS AROUND 5K FT.
WINDS NOT AS STRONG TODAY WITH WEAK NE GRADIENT ENHANCING LAKE
BREEZE AT KMKE AND KENW. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORT
WAVE TROUGH BRINGS INCREASING PCPN CHANCES TO MAINLY THE FAR WESTERN
FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. FAIRLY CONFIDENT ANY
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL REMAIN WEST OF KMSN AND CERTAINLY THE EASTERN
TAF SITES THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/

TODAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN DIURNAL
CUMULUS CLOUDS INLAND THE ONLY IMPEDIMENT TO FULL SUN. ONLY
DIFFERENCE FROM WEDNESDAY WILL BE LIGHTER WINDS AS CORE OF SURFACE
HIGH DROPS THROUGH SRN WI...THOUGH LAKE SHORE AREAS WILL SEE THE
LIGHT NORTHEAST GRADIENT WINDS ENHANCED BY A LAKE BREEZE.
CONSEQUENTLY HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT THEY
WERE WEDNESDAY IN THE EAST...WITH HIGHS A FEW DEGREES WARMER IN THE
WEST ONCE A SUPERADIABATIC BUMP IS ADDED TO EXPECTED TEMPS FROM
MIXING UP TO FORECAST 925 MB TEMPERATURES.

TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

STILL VARIATIONS TO TIMING OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH
POTENTIAL MCS DEVELOPING WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE
TROUGH INTO THE CWA...MAINLY TIED TO LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF LOW-
LEVEL JET. AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS THAT KEEPS FOCUS OF LOW-LEVEL JET
WEST OF CWA THROUGH 06Z...THEN IT GRADUALLY WORKS EAST BETWEEN 06Z
AND 12Z. GEM REG AND GEM NH KEEP PCPN OUT OF CWA THROUGH 12Z
FRI...THE 00Z ECMWF BRINGS LIGHT QPF INTO THE WESTERN-MOST THREE
COUNTIES...WITH THE FORCING FROM THE MORE ROBUST LLJ DEPICTED ON THE
NAM AND GFS BRINGING QPF ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA ENDING
AT 12Z FRI. ADJUSTED BLENDED POPS UP IN THE FAR WEST...THOUGH KEPT
IN CHANCE CATEGORY...WHILE LIMITING EASTERN EXTENT OF POPS/QPF TO
BALANCE DIFFERENCES.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

DECENT LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION COMBINED WITH A SHORTWAVE WILL
BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS ON FRIDAY. BEST CHANCE SHOULD BE
IN THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET AND STRONGER
LIFT. CLOUDS AND PRECIP SHOULD KEEP HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID
70S.

CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS TROUGH AXIS
AND SURFACE FRONT MOVE THROUGH. IT LOOKS MAINLY DRY BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH SHOWER/STORM CHANCES RETURNING SUNDAY AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE PUSHES THROUGH.

SHOULD SEE WARMER TEMPS AND HIGHER HUMIDITY SATURDAY...WITH A BIT
OF A COOL DOWN SUNDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

IT SHOULD BE DRY MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE WEST.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND INSTABILITY SLOWLY CREEP BACK UP
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. WENT WITH SOME LOW POPS...AS AN EMBEDDED
WAVE OR TWO IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW MAY KICK OF A FEW SHOWERS OR
STORMS.

TEMPS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WILL GENERALLY BE A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL UNDER THE PREVAILING NORTHWEST FLOW.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH DIURNAL CUMULUS DEVELOPING BY
THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY AT INLAND TAF SITES...THOUGH STAYING AT VFR
LEVELS AROUND 5K FT. WINDS NOT AS STRONG TODAY WITH WEAK NE GRADIENT
ENHANCING LAKE BREEZE AT KMKE AND KENW. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH BRINGS INCREASING PCPN CHANCES TO
MAINLY THE FAR WESTERN FORECAST AREA. FAIRLY CONFIDENT ANY
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL REMAIN WEST OF KMSN AND CERTAINLY THE EASTERN
TAF SITES THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MRC
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...REM
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DDV




000
FXUS63 KMKX 240839
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
339 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.TODAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN DIURNAL
CUMULUS CLOUDS INLAND THE ONLY IMPEDIMENT TO FULL SUN. ONLY
DIFFERENCE FROM WEDNESDAY WILL BE LIGHTER WINDS AS CORE OF SURFACE
HIGH DROPS THROUGH SRN WI...THOUGH LAKE SHORE AREAS WILL SEE THE
LIGHT NORTHEAST GRADIENT WINDS ENHANCED BY A LAKE BREEZE.
CONSEQUENTLY HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT THEY
WERE WEDNESDAY IN THE EAST...WITH HIGHS A FEW DEGREES WARMER IN THE
WEST ONCE A SUPERADIABATIC BUMP IS ADDED TO EXPECTED TEMPS FROM
MIXING UP TO FORECAST 925 MB TEMPERATURES.

.TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

STILL VARIATIONS TO TIMING OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH
POTENTIAL MCS DEVELOPING WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE
TROUGH INTO THE CWA...MAINLY TIED TO LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF LOW-
LEVEL JET. AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS THAT KEEPS FOCUS OF LOW-LEVEL JET
WEST OF CWA THROUGH 06Z...THEN IT GRADUALLY WORKS EAST BETWEEN 06Z
AND 12Z. GEM REG AND GEM NH KEEP PCPN OUT OF CWA THROUGH 12Z
FRI...THE 00Z ECMWF BRINGS LIGHT QPF INTO THE WESTERN-MOST THREE
COUNTIES...WITH THE FORCING FROM THE MORE ROBUST LLJ DEPICTED ON THE
NAM AND GFS BRINGING QPF ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA ENDING
AT 12Z FRI. ADJUSTED BLENDED POPS UP IN THE FAR WEST...THOUGH KEPT
IN CHANCE CATEGORY...WHILE LIMITING EASTERN EXTENT OF POPS/QPF TO
BALANCE DIFFERENCES.

.FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

DECENT LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION COMBINED WITH A SHORTWAVE WILL
BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS ON FRIDAY. BEST CHANCE SHOULD BE
IN THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET AND STRONGER
LIFT. CLOUDS AND PRECIP SHOULD KEEP HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID
70S.

CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS TROUGH AXIS
AND SURFACE FRONT MOVE THROUGH. IT LOOKS MAINLY DRY BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH SHOWER/STORM CHANCES RETURNING SUNDAY AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE PUSHES THROUGH.

SHOULD SEE WARMER TEMPS AND HIGHER HUMIDITY SATURDAY...WITH A BIT
OF A COOL DOWN SUNDAY.

.MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

IT SHOULD BE DRY MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE WEST.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND INSTABILITY SLOWLY CREEP BACK UP
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. WENT WITH SOME LOW POPS...AS AN EMBEDDED
WAVE OR TWO IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW MAY KICK OF A FEW SHOWERS OR
STORMS.

TEMPS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WILL GENERALLY BE A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL UNDER THE PREVAILING NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH DIURNAL CUMULUS DEVELOPING BY
THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY AT INLAND TAF SITES...THOUGH STAYING AT VFR
LEVELS AROUND 5K FT. WINDS NOT AS STRONG TODAY WITH WEAK NE GRADIENT
ENHANCING LAKE BREEZE AT KMKE AND KENW. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH BRINGS INCREASING PCPN CHANCES TO
MAINLY THE FAR WESTERN FORECAST AREA. FAIRLY CONFIDENT ANY
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL REMAIN WEST OF KMSN AND CERTAINLY THE EASTERN
TAF SITES THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION...REM
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DDV




000
FXUS63 KMKX 240839
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
339 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.TODAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN DIURNAL
CUMULUS CLOUDS INLAND THE ONLY IMPEDIMENT TO FULL SUN. ONLY
DIFFERENCE FROM WEDNESDAY WILL BE LIGHTER WINDS AS CORE OF SURFACE
HIGH DROPS THROUGH SRN WI...THOUGH LAKE SHORE AREAS WILL SEE THE
LIGHT NORTHEAST GRADIENT WINDS ENHANCED BY A LAKE BREEZE.
CONSEQUENTLY HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT THEY
WERE WEDNESDAY IN THE EAST...WITH HIGHS A FEW DEGREES WARMER IN THE
WEST ONCE A SUPERADIABATIC BUMP IS ADDED TO EXPECTED TEMPS FROM
MIXING UP TO FORECAST 925 MB TEMPERATURES.

.TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

STILL VARIATIONS TO TIMING OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH
POTENTIAL MCS DEVELOPING WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE
TROUGH INTO THE CWA...MAINLY TIED TO LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF LOW-
LEVEL JET. AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS THAT KEEPS FOCUS OF LOW-LEVEL JET
WEST OF CWA THROUGH 06Z...THEN IT GRADUALLY WORKS EAST BETWEEN 06Z
AND 12Z. GEM REG AND GEM NH KEEP PCPN OUT OF CWA THROUGH 12Z
FRI...THE 00Z ECMWF BRINGS LIGHT QPF INTO THE WESTERN-MOST THREE
COUNTIES...WITH THE FORCING FROM THE MORE ROBUST LLJ DEPICTED ON THE
NAM AND GFS BRINGING QPF ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA ENDING
AT 12Z FRI. ADJUSTED BLENDED POPS UP IN THE FAR WEST...THOUGH KEPT
IN CHANCE CATEGORY...WHILE LIMITING EASTERN EXTENT OF POPS/QPF TO
BALANCE DIFFERENCES.

.FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

DECENT LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION COMBINED WITH A SHORTWAVE WILL
BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS ON FRIDAY. BEST CHANCE SHOULD BE
IN THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET AND STRONGER
LIFT. CLOUDS AND PRECIP SHOULD KEEP HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID
70S.

CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS TROUGH AXIS
AND SURFACE FRONT MOVE THROUGH. IT LOOKS MAINLY DRY BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH SHOWER/STORM CHANCES RETURNING SUNDAY AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE PUSHES THROUGH.

SHOULD SEE WARMER TEMPS AND HIGHER HUMIDITY SATURDAY...WITH A BIT
OF A COOL DOWN SUNDAY.

.MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

IT SHOULD BE DRY MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE WEST.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND INSTABILITY SLOWLY CREEP BACK UP
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. WENT WITH SOME LOW POPS...AS AN EMBEDDED
WAVE OR TWO IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW MAY KICK OF A FEW SHOWERS OR
STORMS.

TEMPS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WILL GENERALLY BE A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL UNDER THE PREVAILING NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH DIURNAL CUMULUS DEVELOPING BY
THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY AT INLAND TAF SITES...THOUGH STAYING AT VFR
LEVELS AROUND 5K FT. WINDS NOT AS STRONG TODAY WITH WEAK NE GRADIENT
ENHANCING LAKE BREEZE AT KMKE AND KENW. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH BRINGS INCREASING PCPN CHANCES TO
MAINLY THE FAR WESTERN FORECAST AREA. FAIRLY CONFIDENT ANY
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL REMAIN WEST OF KMSN AND CERTAINLY THE EASTERN
TAF SITES THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION...REM
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DDV





000
FXUS63 KMKX 240200
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
900 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT WITH WINDS AWAY
FROM THE LAKE BECOMING NEARLY CALM. IT/S A GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING SETUP...SO TEMPS WILL EASILY FALL INTO THE 50S OVERNIGHT.
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. THE LAKE BREEZE PUSHED ALL THE WAY TO
MADISON THIS EVENING...HASTENING THE COOLING PROCESS...AT LEAST
ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS WISCONSIN.

&&

.MARINE...
WILL TRIM THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY A BIT...REMOVING ANOTHER MARINE
ZONE ON THE NORTH END. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE FROM
MILWAUKEE SOUTH TO WINTHROP HARBOR


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING ACROSS WISCONSIN WILL LEAD TO LIGHT WINDS
AND CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. WITH DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS LOW
OVERNIGHT...EXPECT PATCHY LIGHT FOG IN LOW LYING AREAS AND THE
WISCONSIN RIVER VALLEY.

THURSDAY WILL BE ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY. PLAN ON SCATTERED TO
BROKEN DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS ONCE AGAIN...LIGHTER WINDS AND A
LAKE BREEZE. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT THEY WERE
TODAY.

SHORT TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH TAKING HIGH PRESSURE WELL
EAST OF THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. THEY BRING WEAKENING LOW
PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT EASTWARD INTO
THE EAST CENTRAL IOWA AREA BY FRIDAY NIGHT.

AREA OF WARM AIR ADVECTION SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA MAINLY FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. 850 MB LOW LEVEL JET NOSE ALSO POINTS INTO THE
AREA FRIDAY...BEFORE SHIFTING EAST FRIDAY NIGHT. 850 MB TROUGH
DOES SHIFT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...ALONG WITH 500 MB VORTICITY
MAXIMUM. DECENT ELEVATED CAPES TO AROUND 1000 J/KG SEEN AT TIMES
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH GOOD DEEP LAYER AND EFFECTIVE
LAYER SHEAR VALUES.

MAIN ISSUE IS HOW STRONG CAP WITH BE TO ELEVATED PARCELS DURING
THIS TIME...AS ELEVATED CIN VALUES REMAIN IN THE 50 TO 100 J/KG
RANGE FOR THE MOST PART. MODELS SHOWING SOME VARIATION WITH QPF
PLACEMENT AND TIMING ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL. FOR NOW...CONTINUED
LOW POPS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT NEAR DARLINGTON...WITH CHANCE POPS
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS FRIDAY SHOULD
REMAIN IN THE 70S PER 925 MB TEMPERATURE FIELDS.

AREA BECOMES FAIRLY CAPPED SATURDAY...AS 850 MB AND 700 MB
TEMPERATURES BECOME QUITE WARM. DEW POINTS DO RISE INTO THE 60S
SATURDAY...WHICH WILL BRING HUMID CONDITIONS BACK INTO THE AREA.
WEAK 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMA SHIFT EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
REGION SATURDAY...BUT NO DECENT MECHANISMS FOR UPWARD VERTICAL
MOTION SEEN. FOR NOW...WILL TREND DOWNWARD WITH POPS SATURDAY FROM
WEST TO EAST. HIGHS SATURDAY SHOULD RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S
ACROSS THE AREA.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

GFS/ECMWF IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH STRONG 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM
SLIDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
SURFACE COLD FRONT ALSO PUSHES SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT.

GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A GOOD AMOUNT OF MEAN LAYER
CAPES WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR. CAP WILL BE AN ISSUE AGAIN
SATURDAY NIGHT...AS WELL AS NIGHTTIME FRONTAL PASSAGE TIMING...FOR
HOW WIDESPREAD AND HOW STRONG ANY CONVECTION WILL BE.

FOR NOW...CONTINUED CHANCE POPS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY SHOULD
SEE LINGERING SHOWER CHANCES WITH PASSING 500 MB SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...MOVING OFF TO THE EAST BY LATER SUNDAY NIGHT. SHOULD ALSO
SEE A RETURN OF COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT.

GFS/ECMWF THEN SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...THEN TO THE SOUTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY.
500 MB FLOW REMAINS NORTHWESTERLY DURING THIS PERIOD. THEY SHOW
SOME LIGHT QPF AT TIMES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH WEAK 500 MB
VORTICITY MAXIMA MOVING THROUGH AND WEAK INSTABILITY. USED
CONSENSUS MODEL POPS FOR NOW FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. PLEASANT
TEMPERATURES SHOULD OCCUR DURING THIS PERIOD.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY WITH DIURNAL CUMULUS DEVELOPING
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THOUGH STAYING AT VFR LEVELS AROUND 5K FT.
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR
PATCHY FOG...ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING AREAS. MOS GUIDANCE NOT
SHOWING FOG AT ANY OF THE TAF SITES SO WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE IT
OUT.

MARINE...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE THIS EVENING AS WINDS AND WAVES
SUBSIDE. QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

BEACHES...

SHEBOYGAN...OZAUKEE...MILWAUKEE...RACINE AND KENOSHA COUNTIES
WILL REMAIN IN A HIGH RISK FOR SWIMMING CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS
EVENING DUE TO HIGH WAVES WITH PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS. WINDS
WILL SLOWLY EASE THIS EVENING...BUT WAVES WILL BE SLOWER TO
SUBSIDE. THE ONSHORE FETCH AND HIGH WAVES WILL CAUSE DANGEROUS
CURRENTS ALONG THE SHORE...ESPECIALLY AROUND PIERS AND JETTIES.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 1 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR WIZ060-066-
     071-072.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR LMZ645>646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DAVIS
TONIGHT/THURSDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MRC
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WOOD





000
FXUS63 KMKX 240200
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
900 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT WITH WINDS AWAY
FROM THE LAKE BECOMING NEARLY CALM. IT/S A GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING SETUP...SO TEMPS WILL EASILY FALL INTO THE 50S OVERNIGHT.
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. THE LAKE BREEZE PUSHED ALL THE WAY TO
MADISON THIS EVENING...HASTENING THE COOLING PROCESS...AT LEAST
ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS WISCONSIN.

&&

.MARINE...
WILL TRIM THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY A BIT...REMOVING ANOTHER MARINE
ZONE ON THE NORTH END. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE FROM
MILWAUKEE SOUTH TO WINTHROP HARBOR


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING ACROSS WISCONSIN WILL LEAD TO LIGHT WINDS
AND CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. WITH DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS LOW
OVERNIGHT...EXPECT PATCHY LIGHT FOG IN LOW LYING AREAS AND THE
WISCONSIN RIVER VALLEY.

THURSDAY WILL BE ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY. PLAN ON SCATTERED TO
BROKEN DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS ONCE AGAIN...LIGHTER WINDS AND A
LAKE BREEZE. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT THEY WERE
TODAY.

SHORT TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH TAKING HIGH PRESSURE WELL
EAST OF THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. THEY BRING WEAKENING LOW
PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT EASTWARD INTO
THE EAST CENTRAL IOWA AREA BY FRIDAY NIGHT.

AREA OF WARM AIR ADVECTION SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA MAINLY FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. 850 MB LOW LEVEL JET NOSE ALSO POINTS INTO THE
AREA FRIDAY...BEFORE SHIFTING EAST FRIDAY NIGHT. 850 MB TROUGH
DOES SHIFT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...ALONG WITH 500 MB VORTICITY
MAXIMUM. DECENT ELEVATED CAPES TO AROUND 1000 J/KG SEEN AT TIMES
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH GOOD DEEP LAYER AND EFFECTIVE
LAYER SHEAR VALUES.

MAIN ISSUE IS HOW STRONG CAP WITH BE TO ELEVATED PARCELS DURING
THIS TIME...AS ELEVATED CIN VALUES REMAIN IN THE 50 TO 100 J/KG
RANGE FOR THE MOST PART. MODELS SHOWING SOME VARIATION WITH QPF
PLACEMENT AND TIMING ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL. FOR NOW...CONTINUED
LOW POPS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT NEAR DARLINGTON...WITH CHANCE POPS
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS FRIDAY SHOULD
REMAIN IN THE 70S PER 925 MB TEMPERATURE FIELDS.

AREA BECOMES FAIRLY CAPPED SATURDAY...AS 850 MB AND 700 MB
TEMPERATURES BECOME QUITE WARM. DEW POINTS DO RISE INTO THE 60S
SATURDAY...WHICH WILL BRING HUMID CONDITIONS BACK INTO THE AREA.
WEAK 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMA SHIFT EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
REGION SATURDAY...BUT NO DECENT MECHANISMS FOR UPWARD VERTICAL
MOTION SEEN. FOR NOW...WILL TREND DOWNWARD WITH POPS SATURDAY FROM
WEST TO EAST. HIGHS SATURDAY SHOULD RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S
ACROSS THE AREA.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

GFS/ECMWF IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH STRONG 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM
SLIDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
SURFACE COLD FRONT ALSO PUSHES SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT.

GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A GOOD AMOUNT OF MEAN LAYER
CAPES WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR. CAP WILL BE AN ISSUE AGAIN
SATURDAY NIGHT...AS WELL AS NIGHTTIME FRONTAL PASSAGE TIMING...FOR
HOW WIDESPREAD AND HOW STRONG ANY CONVECTION WILL BE.

FOR NOW...CONTINUED CHANCE POPS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY SHOULD
SEE LINGERING SHOWER CHANCES WITH PASSING 500 MB SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...MOVING OFF TO THE EAST BY LATER SUNDAY NIGHT. SHOULD ALSO
SEE A RETURN OF COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT.

GFS/ECMWF THEN SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...THEN TO THE SOUTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY.
500 MB FLOW REMAINS NORTHWESTERLY DURING THIS PERIOD. THEY SHOW
SOME LIGHT QPF AT TIMES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH WEAK 500 MB
VORTICITY MAXIMA MOVING THROUGH AND WEAK INSTABILITY. USED
CONSENSUS MODEL POPS FOR NOW FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. PLEASANT
TEMPERATURES SHOULD OCCUR DURING THIS PERIOD.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY WITH DIURNAL CUMULUS DEVELOPING
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THOUGH STAYING AT VFR LEVELS AROUND 5K FT.
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR
PATCHY FOG...ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING AREAS. MOS GUIDANCE NOT
SHOWING FOG AT ANY OF THE TAF SITES SO WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE IT
OUT.

MARINE...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE THIS EVENING AS WINDS AND WAVES
SUBSIDE. QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

BEACHES...

SHEBOYGAN...OZAUKEE...MILWAUKEE...RACINE AND KENOSHA COUNTIES
WILL REMAIN IN A HIGH RISK FOR SWIMMING CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS
EVENING DUE TO HIGH WAVES WITH PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS. WINDS
WILL SLOWLY EASE THIS EVENING...BUT WAVES WILL BE SLOWER TO
SUBSIDE. THE ONSHORE FETCH AND HIGH WAVES WILL CAUSE DANGEROUS
CURRENTS ALONG THE SHORE...ESPECIALLY AROUND PIERS AND JETTIES.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 1 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR WIZ060-066-
     071-072.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR LMZ645>646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DAVIS
TONIGHT/THURSDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MRC
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WOOD




000
FXUS63 KMKX 232036
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
336 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING ACROSS WISCONSIN WILL LEAD TO LIGHT WINDS
AND CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. WITH DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS LOW
OVERNIGHT...EXPECT PATCHY LIGHT FOG IN LOW LYING AREAS AND THE
WISCONSIN RIVER VALLEY.

THURSDAY WILL BE ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY. PLAN ON SCATTERED TO
BROKEN DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS ONCE AGAIN...LIGHTER WINDS AND A
LAKE BREEZE. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT THEY WERE
TODAY.

.SHORT TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH TAKING HIGH PRESSURE WELL
EAST OF THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. THEY BRING WEAKENING LOW
PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT EASTWARD INTO
THE EAST CENTRAL IOWA AREA BY FRIDAY NIGHT.

AREA OF WARM AIR ADVECTION SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA MAINLY FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. 850 MB LOW LEVEL JET NOSE ALSO POINTS INTO THE
AREA FRIDAY...BEFORE SHIFTING EAST FRIDAY NIGHT. 850 MB TROUGH
DOES SHIFT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...ALONG WITH 500 MB VORTICITY
MAXIMUM. DECENT ELEVATED CAPES TO AROUND 1000 J/KG SEEN AT TIMES
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH GOOD DEEP LAYER AND EFFECTIVE
LAYER SHEAR VALUES.

MAIN ISSUE IS HOW STRONG CAP WITH BE TO ELEVATED PARCELS DURING
THIS TIME...AS ELEVATED CIN VALUES REMAIN IN THE 50 TO 100 J/KG
RANGE FOR THE MOST PART. MODELS SHOWING SOME VARIATION WITH QPF
PLACEMENT AND TIMING ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL. FOR NOW...CONTINUED
LOW POPS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT NEAR DARLINGTON...WITH CHANCE POPS
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS FRIDAY SHOULD
REMAIN IN THE 70S PER 925 MB TEMPERATURE FIELDS.

AREA BECOMES FAIRLY CAPPED SATURDAY...AS 850 MB AND 700 MB
TEMPERATURES BECOME QUITE WARM. DEW POINTS DO RISE INTO THE 60S
SATURDAY...WHICH WILL BRING HUMID CONDITIONS BACK INTO THE AREA.
WEAK 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMA SHIFT EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
REGION SATURDAY...BUT NO DECENT MECHANISMS FOR UPWARD VERTICAL
MOTION SEEN. FOR NOW...WILL TREND DOWNWARD WITH POPS SATURDAY FROM
WEST TO EAST. HIGHS SATURDAY SHOULD RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S
ACROSS THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

GFS/ECMWF IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH STRONG 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM
SLIDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
SURFACE COLD FRONT ALSO PUSHES SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT.

GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A GOOD AMOUNT OF MEAN LAYER
CAPES WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR. CAP WILL BE AN ISSUE AGAIN
SATURDAY NIGHT...AS WELL AS NIGHTTIME FRONTAL PASSAGE TIMING...FOR
HOW WIDESPREAD AND HOW STRONG ANY CONVECTION WILL BE.

FOR NOW...CONTINUED CHANCE POPS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY SHOULD
SEE LINGERING SHOWER CHANCES WITH PASSING 500 MB SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...MOVING OFF TO THE EAST BY LATER SUNDAY NIGHT. SHOULD ALSO
SEE A RETURN OF COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT.

GFS/ECMWF THEN SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...THEN TO THE SOUTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY.
500 MB FLOW REMAINS NORTHWESTERLY DURING THIS PERIOD. THEY SHOW
SOME LIGHT QPF AT TIMES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH WEAK 500 MB
VORTICITY MAXIMA MOVING THROUGH AND WEAK INSTABILITY. USED
CONSENSUS MODEL POPS FOR NOW FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. PLEASANT
TEMPERATURES SHOULD OCCUR DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY WITH DIURNAL CUMULUS DEVELOPING
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THOUGH STAYING AT VFR LEVELS AROUND 5K FT.
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR
PATCHY FOG...ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING AREAS. MOS GUIDANCE NOT
SHOWING FOG AT ANY OF THE TAF SITES SO WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE IT
OUT.

&&

.MARINE...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE THIS EVENING AS WINDS AND WAVES
SUBSIDE. QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.BEACHES...

SHEBOYGAN...OZAUKEE...MILWAUKEE...RACINE AND KENOSHA COUNTIES
WILL REMAIN IN A HIGH RISK FOR SWIMMING CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS
EVENING DUE TO HIGH WAVES WITH PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS. WINDS
WILL SLOWLY EASE THIS EVENING...BUT WAVES WILL BE SLOWER TO
SUBSIDE. THE ONSHORE FETCH AND HIGH WAVES WILL CAUSE DANGEROUS
CURRENTS ALONG THE SHORE...ESPECIALLY AROUND PIERS AND JETTIES.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 1 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR WIZ060-066-
     071-072.

     BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ052.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR LMZ644>646.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643.

&&

$$

TONIGHT/THURSDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MRC
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WOOD





000
FXUS63 KMKX 232036
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
336 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING ACROSS WISCONSIN WILL LEAD TO LIGHT WINDS
AND CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. WITH DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS LOW
OVERNIGHT...EXPECT PATCHY LIGHT FOG IN LOW LYING AREAS AND THE
WISCONSIN RIVER VALLEY.

THURSDAY WILL BE ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY. PLAN ON SCATTERED TO
BROKEN DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS ONCE AGAIN...LIGHTER WINDS AND A
LAKE BREEZE. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT THEY WERE
TODAY.

.SHORT TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH TAKING HIGH PRESSURE WELL
EAST OF THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. THEY BRING WEAKENING LOW
PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT EASTWARD INTO
THE EAST CENTRAL IOWA AREA BY FRIDAY NIGHT.

AREA OF WARM AIR ADVECTION SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA MAINLY FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. 850 MB LOW LEVEL JET NOSE ALSO POINTS INTO THE
AREA FRIDAY...BEFORE SHIFTING EAST FRIDAY NIGHT. 850 MB TROUGH
DOES SHIFT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...ALONG WITH 500 MB VORTICITY
MAXIMUM. DECENT ELEVATED CAPES TO AROUND 1000 J/KG SEEN AT TIMES
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH GOOD DEEP LAYER AND EFFECTIVE
LAYER SHEAR VALUES.

MAIN ISSUE IS HOW STRONG CAP WITH BE TO ELEVATED PARCELS DURING
THIS TIME...AS ELEVATED CIN VALUES REMAIN IN THE 50 TO 100 J/KG
RANGE FOR THE MOST PART. MODELS SHOWING SOME VARIATION WITH QPF
PLACEMENT AND TIMING ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL. FOR NOW...CONTINUED
LOW POPS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT NEAR DARLINGTON...WITH CHANCE POPS
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS FRIDAY SHOULD
REMAIN IN THE 70S PER 925 MB TEMPERATURE FIELDS.

AREA BECOMES FAIRLY CAPPED SATURDAY...AS 850 MB AND 700 MB
TEMPERATURES BECOME QUITE WARM. DEW POINTS DO RISE INTO THE 60S
SATURDAY...WHICH WILL BRING HUMID CONDITIONS BACK INTO THE AREA.
WEAK 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMA SHIFT EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
REGION SATURDAY...BUT NO DECENT MECHANISMS FOR UPWARD VERTICAL
MOTION SEEN. FOR NOW...WILL TREND DOWNWARD WITH POPS SATURDAY FROM
WEST TO EAST. HIGHS SATURDAY SHOULD RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S
ACROSS THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

GFS/ECMWF IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH STRONG 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM
SLIDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
SURFACE COLD FRONT ALSO PUSHES SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT.

GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A GOOD AMOUNT OF MEAN LAYER
CAPES WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR. CAP WILL BE AN ISSUE AGAIN
SATURDAY NIGHT...AS WELL AS NIGHTTIME FRONTAL PASSAGE TIMING...FOR
HOW WIDESPREAD AND HOW STRONG ANY CONVECTION WILL BE.

FOR NOW...CONTINUED CHANCE POPS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY SHOULD
SEE LINGERING SHOWER CHANCES WITH PASSING 500 MB SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...MOVING OFF TO THE EAST BY LATER SUNDAY NIGHT. SHOULD ALSO
SEE A RETURN OF COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT.

GFS/ECMWF THEN SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...THEN TO THE SOUTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY.
500 MB FLOW REMAINS NORTHWESTERLY DURING THIS PERIOD. THEY SHOW
SOME LIGHT QPF AT TIMES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH WEAK 500 MB
VORTICITY MAXIMA MOVING THROUGH AND WEAK INSTABILITY. USED
CONSENSUS MODEL POPS FOR NOW FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. PLEASANT
TEMPERATURES SHOULD OCCUR DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY WITH DIURNAL CUMULUS DEVELOPING
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THOUGH STAYING AT VFR LEVELS AROUND 5K FT.
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR
PATCHY FOG...ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING AREAS. MOS GUIDANCE NOT
SHOWING FOG AT ANY OF THE TAF SITES SO WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE IT
OUT.

&&

.MARINE...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE THIS EVENING AS WINDS AND WAVES
SUBSIDE. QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.BEACHES...

SHEBOYGAN...OZAUKEE...MILWAUKEE...RACINE AND KENOSHA COUNTIES
WILL REMAIN IN A HIGH RISK FOR SWIMMING CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS
EVENING DUE TO HIGH WAVES WITH PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS. WINDS
WILL SLOWLY EASE THIS EVENING...BUT WAVES WILL BE SLOWER TO
SUBSIDE. THE ONSHORE FETCH AND HIGH WAVES WILL CAUSE DANGEROUS
CURRENTS ALONG THE SHORE...ESPECIALLY AROUND PIERS AND JETTIES.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 1 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR WIZ060-066-
     071-072.

     BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ052.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR LMZ644>646.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643.

&&

$$

TONIGHT/THURSDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MRC
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WOOD




000
FXUS63 KMKX 231743 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1243 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.UPDATE...

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY WITH DIURNAL CUMULUS DEVELOPING EACH
LATE MORNING...THOUGH STAYING AT VFR LEVELS AROUND 5K FT. BREEZY
NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE EAST WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH DURING THE
AFTERNOON. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT BRING THE POTENTIAL
FOR PATCHY FOG...ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING AREAS. MOS GUIDANCE NOT
SHOWING FOG AT ANY OF THE TAF SITES SO WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVING IN WITH HIGH PRESSURE AS REGION COMES
UNDER NWLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH TO THE EAST.
SHEARED VORT...ASSOCIATED WITH 80 KT 250 MB JET MAX CURRENTLY
CRESTING UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE INTER-MOUNTAIN REGION...WILL
PASS TO THE WEST TODAY. SECOND WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPS THROUGH
THIS EVENING...BUT LITTLE TO NO MOISTURE. WILL SEE SOME DIURNAL
CUMULUS DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...DISSIPATING BY EVENING.

SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG MODELS WITH HOW COOL 850 MB AND 925 MB
TEMPERATURES FALL WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION. A BLENDED SOLUTION BRINGS
HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 70S IN THE WEST...WITH NORTHEAST WINDS OFF THE
COOL LAKE HOLDING READINGS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S IN THE
EASTERN THIRD...WITH MID 70S IN BETWEEN.

WINDS LOWER TONIGHT AND SKIES CLEAR ALLOWING LOWS IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 50S...THROUGH SLIGHTLY WARMER ALONG THE LAKE. EXPECT PATCHY
FOG...WITH SOME LOCAL AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE IN THE RIVER VALLEYS AND
LOW-LYING RURAL AREAS.

THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY THURSDAY. PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED TO GO ALONG WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S.

KEPT SOME POPS MAINLY IN THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT...AS INCREASING
WARM ADVECTION ON THE NOSE OF A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL LIKELY
KICK OFF A ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE REGION.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED TO BRING SHOWER/STORM CHANCES
TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AT TIMES FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS
STILL HAVE SOME DETAILS TO WORK OUT...SO LEFT CHANCE POPS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. TRENDED POPS A BIT COOLER FRIDAY PER LOWER 925 MB TEMPS
AND EXPECTED CLOUDS/PRECIP. STILL SHOULD BE IN THE 70S THOUGH
FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS BACK AROUND 80 FOR SAT/SUN.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE LESS AVAILABLE MOISTURE EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT STILL WENT WITH SOME LOW POPS MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS
MODELS ARE ADVERTISING A COUPLE WEAK WAVES. TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE
COMFORTABLY BACK INTO THE 70S BOTH DAYS.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH DIURNAL CUMULUS DEVELOPING BY
AFTERNOON...THOUGH STAYING AT VFR LEVELS AROUND 5K FT. GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE EAST WILL SLOWLY LOWER DURING THE AFTERNOON.
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY
FOG...BUT MOS GUIDANCE NOT SHOWING FOG AT ANY OF THE TAF SITES SO
WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW.

MARINE...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HIGH WAVES WITH
PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS SLOWLY EASE DURING
THE AFTERNOON WITH WAVES SLOWER TO SUBSIDE SO WILL KEEP CURRENT END
TIME FOR ADVISORY...WITH THE NORTHERN-MOST ZONE ENDING AT 00Z AND
THE REMAINDER AT 06Z.

BEACHES...

SHEBOYGAN...OZAUKEE...MILWAUKEE...RACINE AND KENOSHA COUNTIES
WILL BE IN A HIGH RISK OF SWIMMING HAZARDS TODAY...WITH ALL BUT
SHEBOYGAN COUNTY REMAINING IN A HIGH RISK INTO THE EVENING...DUE
TO HIGH WAVES WITH PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS. WINDS SLOWLY EASE
DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT WAVES WILL BE SLOWER TO SUBSIDE UNTIL
THIS EVENING. THE ONSHORE FETCH AND HIGH WAVES WILL CAUSE
DANGEROUS CURRENTS ALONG THE SHORE...ESPECIALLY AROUND PIERS AND
JETTIES.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR WIZ060-066-071-
     072.

     BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ052.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR LMZ644>646.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MRC
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...REM
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...DDV





000
FXUS63 KMKX 231743 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1243 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.UPDATE...

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY WITH DIURNAL CUMULUS DEVELOPING EACH
LATE MORNING...THOUGH STAYING AT VFR LEVELS AROUND 5K FT. BREEZY
NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE EAST WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH DURING THE
AFTERNOON. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT BRING THE POTENTIAL
FOR PATCHY FOG...ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING AREAS. MOS GUIDANCE NOT
SHOWING FOG AT ANY OF THE TAF SITES SO WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVING IN WITH HIGH PRESSURE AS REGION COMES
UNDER NWLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH TO THE EAST.
SHEARED VORT...ASSOCIATED WITH 80 KT 250 MB JET MAX CURRENTLY
CRESTING UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE INTER-MOUNTAIN REGION...WILL
PASS TO THE WEST TODAY. SECOND WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPS THROUGH
THIS EVENING...BUT LITTLE TO NO MOISTURE. WILL SEE SOME DIURNAL
CUMULUS DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...DISSIPATING BY EVENING.

SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG MODELS WITH HOW COOL 850 MB AND 925 MB
TEMPERATURES FALL WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION. A BLENDED SOLUTION BRINGS
HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 70S IN THE WEST...WITH NORTHEAST WINDS OFF THE
COOL LAKE HOLDING READINGS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S IN THE
EASTERN THIRD...WITH MID 70S IN BETWEEN.

WINDS LOWER TONIGHT AND SKIES CLEAR ALLOWING LOWS IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 50S...THROUGH SLIGHTLY WARMER ALONG THE LAKE. EXPECT PATCHY
FOG...WITH SOME LOCAL AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE IN THE RIVER VALLEYS AND
LOW-LYING RURAL AREAS.

THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY THURSDAY. PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED TO GO ALONG WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S.

KEPT SOME POPS MAINLY IN THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT...AS INCREASING
WARM ADVECTION ON THE NOSE OF A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL LIKELY
KICK OFF A ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE REGION.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED TO BRING SHOWER/STORM CHANCES
TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AT TIMES FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS
STILL HAVE SOME DETAILS TO WORK OUT...SO LEFT CHANCE POPS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. TRENDED POPS A BIT COOLER FRIDAY PER LOWER 925 MB TEMPS
AND EXPECTED CLOUDS/PRECIP. STILL SHOULD BE IN THE 70S THOUGH
FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS BACK AROUND 80 FOR SAT/SUN.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE LESS AVAILABLE MOISTURE EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT STILL WENT WITH SOME LOW POPS MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS
MODELS ARE ADVERTISING A COUPLE WEAK WAVES. TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE
COMFORTABLY BACK INTO THE 70S BOTH DAYS.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH DIURNAL CUMULUS DEVELOPING BY
AFTERNOON...THOUGH STAYING AT VFR LEVELS AROUND 5K FT. GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE EAST WILL SLOWLY LOWER DURING THE AFTERNOON.
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY
FOG...BUT MOS GUIDANCE NOT SHOWING FOG AT ANY OF THE TAF SITES SO
WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW.

MARINE...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HIGH WAVES WITH
PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS SLOWLY EASE DURING
THE AFTERNOON WITH WAVES SLOWER TO SUBSIDE SO WILL KEEP CURRENT END
TIME FOR ADVISORY...WITH THE NORTHERN-MOST ZONE ENDING AT 00Z AND
THE REMAINDER AT 06Z.

BEACHES...

SHEBOYGAN...OZAUKEE...MILWAUKEE...RACINE AND KENOSHA COUNTIES
WILL BE IN A HIGH RISK OF SWIMMING HAZARDS TODAY...WITH ALL BUT
SHEBOYGAN COUNTY REMAINING IN A HIGH RISK INTO THE EVENING...DUE
TO HIGH WAVES WITH PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS. WINDS SLOWLY EASE
DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT WAVES WILL BE SLOWER TO SUBSIDE UNTIL
THIS EVENING. THE ONSHORE FETCH AND HIGH WAVES WILL CAUSE
DANGEROUS CURRENTS ALONG THE SHORE...ESPECIALLY AROUND PIERS AND
JETTIES.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR WIZ060-066-071-
     072.

     BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ052.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR LMZ644>646.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MRC
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...REM
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...DDV




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