Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS63 KMKX 041519 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1019 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.UPDATE...

IT WILL REMAIN DRY TODAY UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. HIGH CLOUDS
ORIGINATING FROM CONVECTION WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL AFFECT THE
AREA AT TIMES. COULD SEE SOME LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON CUMULUS
AS WELL...PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA WHERE THERE
WILL BE A BIT MORE MOISTURE.

GIVEN 925 MB TEMPS RISING TO 19-20C BY LATE AFTERNOON...FORECAST
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S SEEM REASONABLE. THOUGH A LAKE
BREEZE MAY FORM BY LATE AFTERNOON...WINDS SHOULD STAY OFFSHORE
LONG ENOUGH TO FOR HIGHS IN THE EAST SIMILAR TO ELSEWHERE IN THE
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

COULD SEE A LITTLE FOG IN THE WISCONSIN RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT...BUT
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY UNDER
HIGH PRESSURE.

WILL BE MONITORING THE TIMING OF POSSIBLE LAKE BREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON AND UPDATE TAFS AS NEEDED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015/

SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL WI THE RESULT OF WEAK WARM
ADVECTION. SOME OF THESE CLOUDS MAY AFFECT THE FAR NRN CWA THROUGH
SUNRISE. OTHERWISE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SFC TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TODAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING INTO SRN WI LATE TODAY AND FOR TNT. FEW-SCT CUMULUS
EXPECTED FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGH TEMPS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. A
LATE DAY LAKE BREEZE IS ALSO EXPECTED AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WEAKENS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TNT
WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S. A LITTLE FOG IN LOW LYING AREAS.

WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TREKKING THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS
WILL ARRIVE IN THE MIDWEST WEDNESDAY MORNING. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BE HOLDING STRONG OVER THE GREAT LAKES... SO A LAKE BREEZE AND A FEW
DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE THE ONLY CONCERNS FOR WEDNESDAY. HIGHS
WILL BE COOLER BY THE LAKE... ONLY IN THE LOWER 70S. HIGH AROUND 80
WELL INLAND.

THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHOULD SPLIT TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF SOUTHERN
WI ON THURSDAY. ANY PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH IT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH
NORTHERN WI AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN IL. KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FOR MOST
OF THE MKX AREA THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

LONG TERM...

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY
COULD TRIGGER AN MCS THAT TRACKS INTO WI SOMETIME LATE THU NIGHT OR
FRIDAY. THE GFS AND ECWMF ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THIS SCENARIO.
THE PROBLEM IS THAT THE SYSTEM WILL BE DECAYING AND RUNNING INTO A
LOT OF DRY AIR. ALSO... THERE IS VERY LITTLE LOW LEVEL JET SUPPORT
WITH THE SYSTEM. KEPT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST...BUT LOWEST
CHANCE IS IN SOUTHEAST WI.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL SET UP OVER THE THE SOUTH CENTRAL STATES.
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL ROLL THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND BRING
SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO WI EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE LATEST MODELS ARE SHOWING THE BETTER FORCING TO BE OVER NORTHERN
WI... ALTHOUGH IT WILL DEPEND ON WHERE THE UPPER JET AND BAROCLINIC
ZONES SET UP.

AN UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SWING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES BY
TUESDAY AND BRING COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER TO SOUTHERN WI THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...VFR CONDITIONS FOR TODAY AND TNT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO WI. FEW-SCT050-060 CUMULUS FOR THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SOME FOG IN LOW LYING AREAS FOR LATE TNT.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DDV
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION...GEHRING
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MRC





000
FXUS63 KMKX 041519 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1019 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.UPDATE...

IT WILL REMAIN DRY TODAY UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. HIGH CLOUDS
ORIGINATING FROM CONVECTION WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL AFFECT THE
AREA AT TIMES. COULD SEE SOME LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON CUMULUS
AS WELL...PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA WHERE THERE
WILL BE A BIT MORE MOISTURE.

GIVEN 925 MB TEMPS RISING TO 19-20C BY LATE AFTERNOON...FORECAST
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S SEEM REASONABLE. THOUGH A LAKE
BREEZE MAY FORM BY LATE AFTERNOON...WINDS SHOULD STAY OFFSHORE
LONG ENOUGH TO FOR HIGHS IN THE EAST SIMILAR TO ELSEWHERE IN THE
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

COULD SEE A LITTLE FOG IN THE WISCONSIN RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT...BUT
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY UNDER
HIGH PRESSURE.

WILL BE MONITORING THE TIMING OF POSSIBLE LAKE BREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON AND UPDATE TAFS AS NEEDED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015/

SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL WI THE RESULT OF WEAK WARM
ADVECTION. SOME OF THESE CLOUDS MAY AFFECT THE FAR NRN CWA THROUGH
SUNRISE. OTHERWISE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SFC TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TODAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING INTO SRN WI LATE TODAY AND FOR TNT. FEW-SCT CUMULUS
EXPECTED FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGH TEMPS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. A
LATE DAY LAKE BREEZE IS ALSO EXPECTED AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WEAKENS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TNT
WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S. A LITTLE FOG IN LOW LYING AREAS.

WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TREKKING THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS
WILL ARRIVE IN THE MIDWEST WEDNESDAY MORNING. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BE HOLDING STRONG OVER THE GREAT LAKES... SO A LAKE BREEZE AND A FEW
DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE THE ONLY CONCERNS FOR WEDNESDAY. HIGHS
WILL BE COOLER BY THE LAKE... ONLY IN THE LOWER 70S. HIGH AROUND 80
WELL INLAND.

THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHOULD SPLIT TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF SOUTHERN
WI ON THURSDAY. ANY PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH IT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH
NORTHERN WI AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN IL. KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FOR MOST
OF THE MKX AREA THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

LONG TERM...

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY
COULD TRIGGER AN MCS THAT TRACKS INTO WI SOMETIME LATE THU NIGHT OR
FRIDAY. THE GFS AND ECWMF ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THIS SCENARIO.
THE PROBLEM IS THAT THE SYSTEM WILL BE DECAYING AND RUNNING INTO A
LOT OF DRY AIR. ALSO... THERE IS VERY LITTLE LOW LEVEL JET SUPPORT
WITH THE SYSTEM. KEPT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST...BUT LOWEST
CHANCE IS IN SOUTHEAST WI.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL SET UP OVER THE THE SOUTH CENTRAL STATES.
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL ROLL THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND BRING
SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO WI EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE LATEST MODELS ARE SHOWING THE BETTER FORCING TO BE OVER NORTHERN
WI... ALTHOUGH IT WILL DEPEND ON WHERE THE UPPER JET AND BAROCLINIC
ZONES SET UP.

AN UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SWING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES BY
TUESDAY AND BRING COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER TO SOUTHERN WI THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...VFR CONDITIONS FOR TODAY AND TNT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO WI. FEW-SCT050-060 CUMULUS FOR THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SOME FOG IN LOW LYING AREAS FOR LATE TNT.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DDV
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION...GEHRING
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MRC




000
FXUS63 KMKX 040825
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
325 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL WI THE RESULT OF WEAK WARM
ADVECTION. SOME OF THESE CLOUDS MAY AFFECT THE FAR NRN CWA THROUGH
SUNRISE. OTHERWISE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SFC TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TODAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING INTO SRN WI LATE TODAY AND FOR TNT. FEW-SCT CUMULUS
EXPECTED FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGH TEMPS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. A
LATE DAY LAKE BREEZE IS ALSO EXPECTED AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WEAKENS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TNT
WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S. A LITTLE FOG IN LOW LYING AREAS.

WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TREKKING THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS
WILL ARRIVE IN THE MIDWEST WEDNESDAY MORNING. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BE HOLDING STRONG OVER THE GREAT LAKES... SO A LAKE BREEZE AND A FEW
DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE THE ONLY CONCERNS FOR WEDNESDAY. HIGHS
WILL BE COOLER BY THE LAKE... ONLY IN THE LOWER 70S. HIGH AROUND 80
WELL INLAND.

THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHOULD SPLIT TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF SOUTHERN
WI ON THURSDAY. ANY PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH IT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH
NORTHERN WI AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN IL. KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FOR MOST
OF THE MKX AREA THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY
COULD TRIGGER AN MCS THAT TRACKS INTO WI SOMETIME LATE THU NIGHT OR
FRIDAY. THE GFS AND ECWMF ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THIS SCENARIO.
THE PROBLEM IS THAT THE SYSTEM WILL BE DECAYING AND RUNNING INTO A
LOT OF DRY AIR. ALSO... THERE IS VERY LITTLE LOW LEVEL JET SUPPORT
WITH THE SYSTEM. KEPT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST...BUT LOWEST
CHANCE IS IN SOUTHEAST WI.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL SET UP OVER THE THE SOUTH CENTRAL STATES.
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL ROLL THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND BRING
SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO WI EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE LATEST MODELS ARE SHOWING THE BETTER FORCING TO BE OVER NORTHERN
WI... ALTHOUGH IT WILL DEPEND ON WHERE THE UPPER JET AND BAROCLINIC
ZONES SET UP.

AN UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SWING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES BY
TUESDAY AND BRING COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER TO SOUTHERN WI THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...VFR CONDITIONS FOR TODAY AND TNT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO WI. FEW-SCT050-060 CUMULUS FOR THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SOME FOG IN LOW LYING AREAS FOR LATE TNT.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...GEHRING
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MRC




000
FXUS63 KMKX 040825
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
325 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL WI THE RESULT OF WEAK WARM
ADVECTION. SOME OF THESE CLOUDS MAY AFFECT THE FAR NRN CWA THROUGH
SUNRISE. OTHERWISE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SFC TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TODAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING INTO SRN WI LATE TODAY AND FOR TNT. FEW-SCT CUMULUS
EXPECTED FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGH TEMPS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. A
LATE DAY LAKE BREEZE IS ALSO EXPECTED AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WEAKENS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TNT
WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S. A LITTLE FOG IN LOW LYING AREAS.

WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TREKKING THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS
WILL ARRIVE IN THE MIDWEST WEDNESDAY MORNING. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BE HOLDING STRONG OVER THE GREAT LAKES... SO A LAKE BREEZE AND A FEW
DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE THE ONLY CONCERNS FOR WEDNESDAY. HIGHS
WILL BE COOLER BY THE LAKE... ONLY IN THE LOWER 70S. HIGH AROUND 80
WELL INLAND.

THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHOULD SPLIT TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF SOUTHERN
WI ON THURSDAY. ANY PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH IT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH
NORTHERN WI AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN IL. KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FOR MOST
OF THE MKX AREA THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY
COULD TRIGGER AN MCS THAT TRACKS INTO WI SOMETIME LATE THU NIGHT OR
FRIDAY. THE GFS AND ECWMF ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THIS SCENARIO.
THE PROBLEM IS THAT THE SYSTEM WILL BE DECAYING AND RUNNING INTO A
LOT OF DRY AIR. ALSO... THERE IS VERY LITTLE LOW LEVEL JET SUPPORT
WITH THE SYSTEM. KEPT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST...BUT LOWEST
CHANCE IS IN SOUTHEAST WI.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL SET UP OVER THE THE SOUTH CENTRAL STATES.
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL ROLL THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND BRING
SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO WI EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE LATEST MODELS ARE SHOWING THE BETTER FORCING TO BE OVER NORTHERN
WI... ALTHOUGH IT WILL DEPEND ON WHERE THE UPPER JET AND BAROCLINIC
ZONES SET UP.

AN UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SWING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES BY
TUESDAY AND BRING COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER TO SOUTHERN WI THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...VFR CONDITIONS FOR TODAY AND TNT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO WI. FEW-SCT050-060 CUMULUS FOR THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SOME FOG IN LOW LYING AREAS FOR LATE TNT.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...GEHRING
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MRC





000
FXUS63 KMKX 040207
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
907 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.UPDATE...


&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...

VFR THIS PERIOD EXCEPT MVFR/IFR FOG POSSIBLE MAINLY IN THE
WISCONSIN RIVER VALLEY UNTIL JUST AFTER SUNRISE.

MODEL LOW LEVEL RH HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON CU/SC CANOPY WRAPPING
SEWD AROUND CANADIAN VORTEX INTO NORTHERN/EAST CENTRAL WI. MAINLY
SCATTERED CUMULUS AROUND SRN WI WILL DIMINISH THIS EVE WITH LOSS
OF HEATING. HOWEVER FEW CLOUDS WILL REMAIN.

LESS WIND ON TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DRAWING CLOSER
RESULTING IN A MORE LAX GRADIENT. ONSHORE WINDS MAY SET UP IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH LAKE BREEZE POTENTIAL. SCATTERED DIURNAL DRIVEN CU
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN WITH GREATEST COVERAGE LIKELY
IN THE NE 1/2 OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015/

TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

SOUTHERN EDGE OF BKN CU/SC FIELD MAY CLIP OUR FAR NORTHERN CWA
BEFORE SOME DIURNAL DISSIPATION TAKES HOLD. OVERALL LITTLE CHANGE
THIS PERIOD AS BROAD NORTHWEST MID LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS.

SOME COOLER AIR ALOFT LIKELY TO RESULT IN AT LEAST MORE SCT CU
DEVELOPMENT ON TUESDAY WITH POSSIBLE BKN CONDITIONS...ESP IN NE
1/2 OF THE CWA. 925 TEMPS REMAIN IN ABOUT THE 18-20C RANGE SO
SIMILAR HIGHS EXPECTED. AIRMASS IS OVERALL TO REMAIN QUITE
PARCHED. WITH SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SLIDING ACROSS A LIGHTER WIND
REGIME WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN ONSHORE
COMPONENT.

SHORT TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS MEDIUM.

MODELS SHOWING WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AXIS LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING QUIET WEATHER AND COOL TEMPERATURES. GFS
THEN SHOWS A MUCH DIFFERENT SOLUTION FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
THAN THE NAM/ECMWF/CANADIAN MODELS. THE GFS BRINGS LOW PRESSURE
EAST TOWARD THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN ILLINOIS THURSDAY. A 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ACCOMPANIES THIS SYSTEM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE AREA ON THE
GFS...WITH QPF WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

THE OTHER MODELS ARE DRY DURING THIS TIME ACROSS THE AREA...AND
KEEP THIS SYSTEM GENERALLY WEST OR NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. LEANED
TOWARD THE DRIER MODELS GIVEN THE BETTER AGREEMENT...AND KEPT THE
DRY FORECAST GOING FOR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. KEPT LOW
POPS FOR THURSDAY...BUT THINK THIS PERIOD WILL END UP DRY WITH THE
AGREEMENT AMONG THE DRIER MODELS.

MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S ARE EXPECTED INLAND...WITH
ONSHORE WINDS KEEPING SOMEWHAT COOLER VALUES NEAR THE LAKE.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS MEDIUM.

ECMWF MODEL IS SLOWER WITH THE SYSTEM THAN THE GFS...DELAYING
PASSAGE THROUGH THE REGION UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT AND LINGERING
EARLY ON FRIDAY BEFORE EXITING. THIS IS THE SYSTEM THE GFS HAS
COMING THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. LEANED
TOWARD THE ECMWF TIMING AND KEPT THE CONSENSUS MODEL BLEND OF POPS
DURING THIS PERIOD.

GFS/ECMWF DOES HAVE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION OVER
THE WEEKEND...BUT KEPT THE CONSENSUS POPS AND TEMPERATURES GIVEN
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF VARIOUS 500 MB SHORTWAVES. THIS PERIOD
MAY END UP DRY IF THE HIGH LINGERS IN LATER MODEL RUNS.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

VFR THIS PERIOD. LLVL RH PROGS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON CU/SC CANOPY
WRAPPING SEWD AROUND CANADIAN VORTEX INTO NORTHERN/CENTRAL WI.
MAINLY SCT CU ARND SRN WI WILL DIMINISH THIS EVE WITH LOSS OF
HEATING. GUSTY WNW WINDS WILL EASE THIS EVE.

LESS WIND ON TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DRAWING CLOSER
RESULTING IN A MORE LAX GRADIENT. ONSHORE WINDS MAY SET UP IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH LAKE BREEZE POTENTIAL. SCT-BKN DIURNAL DRIVEN CU
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN WITH GREATEST COVERAGE LIKELY
IN NE 1/2 OF THE CWA.

MARINE...

ENOUGH OF A LINGERING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND DECENT MIXING HAS
RESULTED IN MARGINAL WNW GUSTS FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. THIS
WILL BE IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM...WHEN PEAK MIXING EASES AND GUSTS
DROP BELOW THE WIND CRITERIA.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HENTZ
TONIGHT/TUESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...COLLAR
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WOOD





000
FXUS63 KMKX 040207
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
907 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.UPDATE...


&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...

VFR THIS PERIOD EXCEPT MVFR/IFR FOG POSSIBLE MAINLY IN THE
WISCONSIN RIVER VALLEY UNTIL JUST AFTER SUNRISE.

MODEL LOW LEVEL RH HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON CU/SC CANOPY WRAPPING
SEWD AROUND CANADIAN VORTEX INTO NORTHERN/EAST CENTRAL WI. MAINLY
SCATTERED CUMULUS AROUND SRN WI WILL DIMINISH THIS EVE WITH LOSS
OF HEATING. HOWEVER FEW CLOUDS WILL REMAIN.

LESS WIND ON TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DRAWING CLOSER
RESULTING IN A MORE LAX GRADIENT. ONSHORE WINDS MAY SET UP IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH LAKE BREEZE POTENTIAL. SCATTERED DIURNAL DRIVEN CU
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN WITH GREATEST COVERAGE LIKELY
IN THE NE 1/2 OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015/

TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

SOUTHERN EDGE OF BKN CU/SC FIELD MAY CLIP OUR FAR NORTHERN CWA
BEFORE SOME DIURNAL DISSIPATION TAKES HOLD. OVERALL LITTLE CHANGE
THIS PERIOD AS BROAD NORTHWEST MID LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS.

SOME COOLER AIR ALOFT LIKELY TO RESULT IN AT LEAST MORE SCT CU
DEVELOPMENT ON TUESDAY WITH POSSIBLE BKN CONDITIONS...ESP IN NE
1/2 OF THE CWA. 925 TEMPS REMAIN IN ABOUT THE 18-20C RANGE SO
SIMILAR HIGHS EXPECTED. AIRMASS IS OVERALL TO REMAIN QUITE
PARCHED. WITH SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SLIDING ACROSS A LIGHTER WIND
REGIME WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN ONSHORE
COMPONENT.

SHORT TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS MEDIUM.

MODELS SHOWING WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AXIS LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING QUIET WEATHER AND COOL TEMPERATURES. GFS
THEN SHOWS A MUCH DIFFERENT SOLUTION FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
THAN THE NAM/ECMWF/CANADIAN MODELS. THE GFS BRINGS LOW PRESSURE
EAST TOWARD THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN ILLINOIS THURSDAY. A 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ACCOMPANIES THIS SYSTEM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE AREA ON THE
GFS...WITH QPF WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

THE OTHER MODELS ARE DRY DURING THIS TIME ACROSS THE AREA...AND
KEEP THIS SYSTEM GENERALLY WEST OR NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. LEANED
TOWARD THE DRIER MODELS GIVEN THE BETTER AGREEMENT...AND KEPT THE
DRY FORECAST GOING FOR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. KEPT LOW
POPS FOR THURSDAY...BUT THINK THIS PERIOD WILL END UP DRY WITH THE
AGREEMENT AMONG THE DRIER MODELS.

MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S ARE EXPECTED INLAND...WITH
ONSHORE WINDS KEEPING SOMEWHAT COOLER VALUES NEAR THE LAKE.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS MEDIUM.

ECMWF MODEL IS SLOWER WITH THE SYSTEM THAN THE GFS...DELAYING
PASSAGE THROUGH THE REGION UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT AND LINGERING
EARLY ON FRIDAY BEFORE EXITING. THIS IS THE SYSTEM THE GFS HAS
COMING THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. LEANED
TOWARD THE ECMWF TIMING AND KEPT THE CONSENSUS MODEL BLEND OF POPS
DURING THIS PERIOD.

GFS/ECMWF DOES HAVE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION OVER
THE WEEKEND...BUT KEPT THE CONSENSUS POPS AND TEMPERATURES GIVEN
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF VARIOUS 500 MB SHORTWAVES. THIS PERIOD
MAY END UP DRY IF THE HIGH LINGERS IN LATER MODEL RUNS.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

VFR THIS PERIOD. LLVL RH PROGS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON CU/SC CANOPY
WRAPPING SEWD AROUND CANADIAN VORTEX INTO NORTHERN/CENTRAL WI.
MAINLY SCT CU ARND SRN WI WILL DIMINISH THIS EVE WITH LOSS OF
HEATING. GUSTY WNW WINDS WILL EASE THIS EVE.

LESS WIND ON TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DRAWING CLOSER
RESULTING IN A MORE LAX GRADIENT. ONSHORE WINDS MAY SET UP IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH LAKE BREEZE POTENTIAL. SCT-BKN DIURNAL DRIVEN CU
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN WITH GREATEST COVERAGE LIKELY
IN NE 1/2 OF THE CWA.

MARINE...

ENOUGH OF A LINGERING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND DECENT MIXING HAS
RESULTED IN MARGINAL WNW GUSTS FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. THIS
WILL BE IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM...WHEN PEAK MIXING EASES AND GUSTS
DROP BELOW THE WIND CRITERIA.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HENTZ
TONIGHT/TUESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...COLLAR
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WOOD





000
FXUS63 KMKX 040207
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
907 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.UPDATE...


&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...

VFR THIS PERIOD EXCEPT MVFR/IFR FOG POSSIBLE MAINLY IN THE
WISCONSIN RIVER VALLEY UNTIL JUST AFTER SUNRISE.

MODEL LOW LEVEL RH HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON CU/SC CANOPY WRAPPING
SEWD AROUND CANADIAN VORTEX INTO NORTHERN/EAST CENTRAL WI. MAINLY
SCATTERED CUMULUS AROUND SRN WI WILL DIMINISH THIS EVE WITH LOSS
OF HEATING. HOWEVER FEW CLOUDS WILL REMAIN.

LESS WIND ON TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DRAWING CLOSER
RESULTING IN A MORE LAX GRADIENT. ONSHORE WINDS MAY SET UP IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH LAKE BREEZE POTENTIAL. SCATTERED DIURNAL DRIVEN CU
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN WITH GREATEST COVERAGE LIKELY
IN THE NE 1/2 OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015/

TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

SOUTHERN EDGE OF BKN CU/SC FIELD MAY CLIP OUR FAR NORTHERN CWA
BEFORE SOME DIURNAL DISSIPATION TAKES HOLD. OVERALL LITTLE CHANGE
THIS PERIOD AS BROAD NORTHWEST MID LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS.

SOME COOLER AIR ALOFT LIKELY TO RESULT IN AT LEAST MORE SCT CU
DEVELOPMENT ON TUESDAY WITH POSSIBLE BKN CONDITIONS...ESP IN NE
1/2 OF THE CWA. 925 TEMPS REMAIN IN ABOUT THE 18-20C RANGE SO
SIMILAR HIGHS EXPECTED. AIRMASS IS OVERALL TO REMAIN QUITE
PARCHED. WITH SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SLIDING ACROSS A LIGHTER WIND
REGIME WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN ONSHORE
COMPONENT.

SHORT TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS MEDIUM.

MODELS SHOWING WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AXIS LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING QUIET WEATHER AND COOL TEMPERATURES. GFS
THEN SHOWS A MUCH DIFFERENT SOLUTION FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
THAN THE NAM/ECMWF/CANADIAN MODELS. THE GFS BRINGS LOW PRESSURE
EAST TOWARD THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN ILLINOIS THURSDAY. A 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ACCOMPANIES THIS SYSTEM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE AREA ON THE
GFS...WITH QPF WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

THE OTHER MODELS ARE DRY DURING THIS TIME ACROSS THE AREA...AND
KEEP THIS SYSTEM GENERALLY WEST OR NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. LEANED
TOWARD THE DRIER MODELS GIVEN THE BETTER AGREEMENT...AND KEPT THE
DRY FORECAST GOING FOR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. KEPT LOW
POPS FOR THURSDAY...BUT THINK THIS PERIOD WILL END UP DRY WITH THE
AGREEMENT AMONG THE DRIER MODELS.

MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S ARE EXPECTED INLAND...WITH
ONSHORE WINDS KEEPING SOMEWHAT COOLER VALUES NEAR THE LAKE.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS MEDIUM.

ECMWF MODEL IS SLOWER WITH THE SYSTEM THAN THE GFS...DELAYING
PASSAGE THROUGH THE REGION UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT AND LINGERING
EARLY ON FRIDAY BEFORE EXITING. THIS IS THE SYSTEM THE GFS HAS
COMING THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. LEANED
TOWARD THE ECMWF TIMING AND KEPT THE CONSENSUS MODEL BLEND OF POPS
DURING THIS PERIOD.

GFS/ECMWF DOES HAVE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION OVER
THE WEEKEND...BUT KEPT THE CONSENSUS POPS AND TEMPERATURES GIVEN
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF VARIOUS 500 MB SHORTWAVES. THIS PERIOD
MAY END UP DRY IF THE HIGH LINGERS IN LATER MODEL RUNS.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

VFR THIS PERIOD. LLVL RH PROGS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON CU/SC CANOPY
WRAPPING SEWD AROUND CANADIAN VORTEX INTO NORTHERN/CENTRAL WI.
MAINLY SCT CU ARND SRN WI WILL DIMINISH THIS EVE WITH LOSS OF
HEATING. GUSTY WNW WINDS WILL EASE THIS EVE.

LESS WIND ON TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DRAWING CLOSER
RESULTING IN A MORE LAX GRADIENT. ONSHORE WINDS MAY SET UP IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH LAKE BREEZE POTENTIAL. SCT-BKN DIURNAL DRIVEN CU
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN WITH GREATEST COVERAGE LIKELY
IN NE 1/2 OF THE CWA.

MARINE...

ENOUGH OF A LINGERING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND DECENT MIXING HAS
RESULTED IN MARGINAL WNW GUSTS FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. THIS
WILL BE IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM...WHEN PEAK MIXING EASES AND GUSTS
DROP BELOW THE WIND CRITERIA.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HENTZ
TONIGHT/TUESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...COLLAR
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WOOD




000
FXUS63 KMKX 040207
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
907 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.UPDATE...


&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...

VFR THIS PERIOD EXCEPT MVFR/IFR FOG POSSIBLE MAINLY IN THE
WISCONSIN RIVER VALLEY UNTIL JUST AFTER SUNRISE.

MODEL LOW LEVEL RH HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON CU/SC CANOPY WRAPPING
SEWD AROUND CANADIAN VORTEX INTO NORTHERN/EAST CENTRAL WI. MAINLY
SCATTERED CUMULUS AROUND SRN WI WILL DIMINISH THIS EVE WITH LOSS
OF HEATING. HOWEVER FEW CLOUDS WILL REMAIN.

LESS WIND ON TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DRAWING CLOSER
RESULTING IN A MORE LAX GRADIENT. ONSHORE WINDS MAY SET UP IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH LAKE BREEZE POTENTIAL. SCATTERED DIURNAL DRIVEN CU
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN WITH GREATEST COVERAGE LIKELY
IN THE NE 1/2 OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015/

TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

SOUTHERN EDGE OF BKN CU/SC FIELD MAY CLIP OUR FAR NORTHERN CWA
BEFORE SOME DIURNAL DISSIPATION TAKES HOLD. OVERALL LITTLE CHANGE
THIS PERIOD AS BROAD NORTHWEST MID LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS.

SOME COOLER AIR ALOFT LIKELY TO RESULT IN AT LEAST MORE SCT CU
DEVELOPMENT ON TUESDAY WITH POSSIBLE BKN CONDITIONS...ESP IN NE
1/2 OF THE CWA. 925 TEMPS REMAIN IN ABOUT THE 18-20C RANGE SO
SIMILAR HIGHS EXPECTED. AIRMASS IS OVERALL TO REMAIN QUITE
PARCHED. WITH SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SLIDING ACROSS A LIGHTER WIND
REGIME WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN ONSHORE
COMPONENT.

SHORT TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS MEDIUM.

MODELS SHOWING WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AXIS LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING QUIET WEATHER AND COOL TEMPERATURES. GFS
THEN SHOWS A MUCH DIFFERENT SOLUTION FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
THAN THE NAM/ECMWF/CANADIAN MODELS. THE GFS BRINGS LOW PRESSURE
EAST TOWARD THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN ILLINOIS THURSDAY. A 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ACCOMPANIES THIS SYSTEM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE AREA ON THE
GFS...WITH QPF WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

THE OTHER MODELS ARE DRY DURING THIS TIME ACROSS THE AREA...AND
KEEP THIS SYSTEM GENERALLY WEST OR NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. LEANED
TOWARD THE DRIER MODELS GIVEN THE BETTER AGREEMENT...AND KEPT THE
DRY FORECAST GOING FOR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. KEPT LOW
POPS FOR THURSDAY...BUT THINK THIS PERIOD WILL END UP DRY WITH THE
AGREEMENT AMONG THE DRIER MODELS.

MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S ARE EXPECTED INLAND...WITH
ONSHORE WINDS KEEPING SOMEWHAT COOLER VALUES NEAR THE LAKE.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS MEDIUM.

ECMWF MODEL IS SLOWER WITH THE SYSTEM THAN THE GFS...DELAYING
PASSAGE THROUGH THE REGION UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT AND LINGERING
EARLY ON FRIDAY BEFORE EXITING. THIS IS THE SYSTEM THE GFS HAS
COMING THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. LEANED
TOWARD THE ECMWF TIMING AND KEPT THE CONSENSUS MODEL BLEND OF POPS
DURING THIS PERIOD.

GFS/ECMWF DOES HAVE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION OVER
THE WEEKEND...BUT KEPT THE CONSENSUS POPS AND TEMPERATURES GIVEN
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF VARIOUS 500 MB SHORTWAVES. THIS PERIOD
MAY END UP DRY IF THE HIGH LINGERS IN LATER MODEL RUNS.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

VFR THIS PERIOD. LLVL RH PROGS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON CU/SC CANOPY
WRAPPING SEWD AROUND CANADIAN VORTEX INTO NORTHERN/CENTRAL WI.
MAINLY SCT CU ARND SRN WI WILL DIMINISH THIS EVE WITH LOSS OF
HEATING. GUSTY WNW WINDS WILL EASE THIS EVE.

LESS WIND ON TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DRAWING CLOSER
RESULTING IN A MORE LAX GRADIENT. ONSHORE WINDS MAY SET UP IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH LAKE BREEZE POTENTIAL. SCT-BKN DIURNAL DRIVEN CU
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN WITH GREATEST COVERAGE LIKELY
IN NE 1/2 OF THE CWA.

MARINE...

ENOUGH OF A LINGERING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND DECENT MIXING HAS
RESULTED IN MARGINAL WNW GUSTS FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. THIS
WILL BE IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM...WHEN PEAK MIXING EASES AND GUSTS
DROP BELOW THE WIND CRITERIA.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HENTZ
TONIGHT/TUESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...COLLAR
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WOOD




000
FXUS63 KMKX 032029
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
329 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

SOUTHERN EDGE OF BKN CU/SC FIELD MAY CLIP OUR FAR NORTHERN CWA
BEFORE SOME DIURNAL DISSIPATION TAKES HOLD. OVERALL LITTLE CHANGE
THIS PERIOD AS BROAD NORTHWEST MID LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS.

SOME COOLER AIR ALOFT LIKELY TO RESULT IN AT LEAST MORE SCT CU
DEVELOPMENT ON TUESDAY WITH POSSIBLE BKN CONDITIONS...ESP IN NE
1/2 OF THE CWA. 925 TEMPS REMAIN IN ABOUT THE 18-20C RANGE SO
SIMILAR HIGHS EXPECTED. AIRMASS IS OVERALL TO REMAIN QUITE
PARCHED. WITH SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SLIDING ACROSS A LIGHTER WIND
REGIME WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN ONSHORE
COMPONENT.

.SHORT TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS MEDIUM.

MODELS SHOWING WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AXIS LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING QUIET WEATHER AND COOL TEMPERATURES. GFS
THEN SHOWS A MUCH DIFFERENT SOLUTION FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
THAN THE NAM/ECMWF/CANADIAN MODELS. THE GFS BRINGS LOW PRESSURE
EAST TOWARD THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN ILLINOIS THURSDAY. A 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ACCOMPANIES THIS SYSTEM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE AREA ON THE
GFS...WITH QPF WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

THE OTHER MODELS ARE DRY DURING THIS TIME ACROSS THE AREA...AND
KEEP THIS SYSTEM GENERALLY WEST OR NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. LEANED
TOWARD THE DRIER MODELS GIVEN THE BETTER AGREEMENT...AND KEPT THE
DRY FORECAST GOING FOR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. KEPT LOW
POPS FOR THURSDAY...BUT THINK THIS PERIOD WILL END UP DRY WITH THE
AGREEMENT AMONG THE DRIER MODELS.

MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S ARE EXPECTED INLAND...WITH
ONSHORE WINDS KEEPING SOMEWHAT COOLER VALUES NEAR THE LAKE.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS MEDIUM.

ECMWF MODEL IS SLOWER WITH THE SYSTEM THAN THE GFS...DELAYING
PASSAGE THROUGH THE REGION UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT AND LINGERING
EARLY ON FRIDAY BEFORE EXITING. THIS IS THE SYSTEM THE GFS HAS
COMING THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. LEANED
TOWARD THE ECMWF TIMING AND KEPT THE CONSENSUS MODEL BLEND OF POPS
DURING THIS PERIOD.

GFS/ECMWF DOES HAVE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION OVER
THE WEEKEND...BUT KEPT THE CONSENSUS POPS AND TEMPERATURES GIVEN
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF VARIOUS 500 MB SHORTWAVES. THIS PERIOD
MAY END UP DRY IF THE HIGH LINGERS IN LATER MODEL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

VFR THIS PERIOD. LLVL RH PROGS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON CU/SC CANOPY
WRAPPING SEWD AROUND CANADIAN VORTEX INTO NORTHERN/CENTRAL WI.
MAINLY SCT CU ARND SRN WI WILL DIMINISH THIS EVE WITH LOSS OF
HEATING. GUSTY WNW WINDS WILL EASE THIS EVE.

LESS WIND ON TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DRAWING CLOSER
RESULTING IN A MORE LAX GRADIENT. ONSHORE WINDS MAY SET UP IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH LAKE BREEZE POTENTIAL. SCT-BKN DIURNAL DRIVEN CU
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN WITH GREATEST COVERAGE LIKELY
IN NE 1/2 OF THE CWA.

&&

.MARINE...

ENOUGH OF A LINGERING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND DECENT MIXING HAS
RESULTED IN MARGINAL WNW GUSTS FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. THIS
WILL BE IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM...WHEN PEAK MIXING EASES AND GUSTS
DROP BELOW THE WIND CRITERIA.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

TONIGHT/TUESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...COLLAR
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WOOD




000
FXUS63 KMKX 032029
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
329 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

SOUTHERN EDGE OF BKN CU/SC FIELD MAY CLIP OUR FAR NORTHERN CWA
BEFORE SOME DIURNAL DISSIPATION TAKES HOLD. OVERALL LITTLE CHANGE
THIS PERIOD AS BROAD NORTHWEST MID LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS.

SOME COOLER AIR ALOFT LIKELY TO RESULT IN AT LEAST MORE SCT CU
DEVELOPMENT ON TUESDAY WITH POSSIBLE BKN CONDITIONS...ESP IN NE
1/2 OF THE CWA. 925 TEMPS REMAIN IN ABOUT THE 18-20C RANGE SO
SIMILAR HIGHS EXPECTED. AIRMASS IS OVERALL TO REMAIN QUITE
PARCHED. WITH SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SLIDING ACROSS A LIGHTER WIND
REGIME WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN ONSHORE
COMPONENT.

.SHORT TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS MEDIUM.

MODELS SHOWING WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AXIS LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING QUIET WEATHER AND COOL TEMPERATURES. GFS
THEN SHOWS A MUCH DIFFERENT SOLUTION FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
THAN THE NAM/ECMWF/CANADIAN MODELS. THE GFS BRINGS LOW PRESSURE
EAST TOWARD THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN ILLINOIS THURSDAY. A 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ACCOMPANIES THIS SYSTEM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE AREA ON THE
GFS...WITH QPF WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

THE OTHER MODELS ARE DRY DURING THIS TIME ACROSS THE AREA...AND
KEEP THIS SYSTEM GENERALLY WEST OR NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. LEANED
TOWARD THE DRIER MODELS GIVEN THE BETTER AGREEMENT...AND KEPT THE
DRY FORECAST GOING FOR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. KEPT LOW
POPS FOR THURSDAY...BUT THINK THIS PERIOD WILL END UP DRY WITH THE
AGREEMENT AMONG THE DRIER MODELS.

MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S ARE EXPECTED INLAND...WITH
ONSHORE WINDS KEEPING SOMEWHAT COOLER VALUES NEAR THE LAKE.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS MEDIUM.

ECMWF MODEL IS SLOWER WITH THE SYSTEM THAN THE GFS...DELAYING
PASSAGE THROUGH THE REGION UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT AND LINGERING
EARLY ON FRIDAY BEFORE EXITING. THIS IS THE SYSTEM THE GFS HAS
COMING THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. LEANED
TOWARD THE ECMWF TIMING AND KEPT THE CONSENSUS MODEL BLEND OF POPS
DURING THIS PERIOD.

GFS/ECMWF DOES HAVE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION OVER
THE WEEKEND...BUT KEPT THE CONSENSUS POPS AND TEMPERATURES GIVEN
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF VARIOUS 500 MB SHORTWAVES. THIS PERIOD
MAY END UP DRY IF THE HIGH LINGERS IN LATER MODEL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

VFR THIS PERIOD. LLVL RH PROGS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON CU/SC CANOPY
WRAPPING SEWD AROUND CANADIAN VORTEX INTO NORTHERN/CENTRAL WI.
MAINLY SCT CU ARND SRN WI WILL DIMINISH THIS EVE WITH LOSS OF
HEATING. GUSTY WNW WINDS WILL EASE THIS EVE.

LESS WIND ON TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DRAWING CLOSER
RESULTING IN A MORE LAX GRADIENT. ONSHORE WINDS MAY SET UP IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH LAKE BREEZE POTENTIAL. SCT-BKN DIURNAL DRIVEN CU
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN WITH GREATEST COVERAGE LIKELY
IN NE 1/2 OF THE CWA.

&&

.MARINE...

ENOUGH OF A LINGERING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND DECENT MIXING HAS
RESULTED IN MARGINAL WNW GUSTS FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. THIS
WILL BE IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM...WHEN PEAK MIXING EASES AND GUSTS
DROP BELOW THE WIND CRITERIA.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

TONIGHT/TUESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...COLLAR
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WOOD




000
FXUS63 KMKX 032029
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
329 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

SOUTHERN EDGE OF BKN CU/SC FIELD MAY CLIP OUR FAR NORTHERN CWA
BEFORE SOME DIURNAL DISSIPATION TAKES HOLD. OVERALL LITTLE CHANGE
THIS PERIOD AS BROAD NORTHWEST MID LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS.

SOME COOLER AIR ALOFT LIKELY TO RESULT IN AT LEAST MORE SCT CU
DEVELOPMENT ON TUESDAY WITH POSSIBLE BKN CONDITIONS...ESP IN NE
1/2 OF THE CWA. 925 TEMPS REMAIN IN ABOUT THE 18-20C RANGE SO
SIMILAR HIGHS EXPECTED. AIRMASS IS OVERALL TO REMAIN QUITE
PARCHED. WITH SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SLIDING ACROSS A LIGHTER WIND
REGIME WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN ONSHORE
COMPONENT.

.SHORT TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS MEDIUM.

MODELS SHOWING WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AXIS LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING QUIET WEATHER AND COOL TEMPERATURES. GFS
THEN SHOWS A MUCH DIFFERENT SOLUTION FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
THAN THE NAM/ECMWF/CANADIAN MODELS. THE GFS BRINGS LOW PRESSURE
EAST TOWARD THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN ILLINOIS THURSDAY. A 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ACCOMPANIES THIS SYSTEM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE AREA ON THE
GFS...WITH QPF WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

THE OTHER MODELS ARE DRY DURING THIS TIME ACROSS THE AREA...AND
KEEP THIS SYSTEM GENERALLY WEST OR NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. LEANED
TOWARD THE DRIER MODELS GIVEN THE BETTER AGREEMENT...AND KEPT THE
DRY FORECAST GOING FOR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. KEPT LOW
POPS FOR THURSDAY...BUT THINK THIS PERIOD WILL END UP DRY WITH THE
AGREEMENT AMONG THE DRIER MODELS.

MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S ARE EXPECTED INLAND...WITH
ONSHORE WINDS KEEPING SOMEWHAT COOLER VALUES NEAR THE LAKE.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS MEDIUM.

ECMWF MODEL IS SLOWER WITH THE SYSTEM THAN THE GFS...DELAYING
PASSAGE THROUGH THE REGION UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT AND LINGERING
EARLY ON FRIDAY BEFORE EXITING. THIS IS THE SYSTEM THE GFS HAS
COMING THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. LEANED
TOWARD THE ECMWF TIMING AND KEPT THE CONSENSUS MODEL BLEND OF POPS
DURING THIS PERIOD.

GFS/ECMWF DOES HAVE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION OVER
THE WEEKEND...BUT KEPT THE CONSENSUS POPS AND TEMPERATURES GIVEN
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF VARIOUS 500 MB SHORTWAVES. THIS PERIOD
MAY END UP DRY IF THE HIGH LINGERS IN LATER MODEL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

VFR THIS PERIOD. LLVL RH PROGS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON CU/SC CANOPY
WRAPPING SEWD AROUND CANADIAN VORTEX INTO NORTHERN/CENTRAL WI.
MAINLY SCT CU ARND SRN WI WILL DIMINISH THIS EVE WITH LOSS OF
HEATING. GUSTY WNW WINDS WILL EASE THIS EVE.

LESS WIND ON TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DRAWING CLOSER
RESULTING IN A MORE LAX GRADIENT. ONSHORE WINDS MAY SET UP IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH LAKE BREEZE POTENTIAL. SCT-BKN DIURNAL DRIVEN CU
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN WITH GREATEST COVERAGE LIKELY
IN NE 1/2 OF THE CWA.

&&

.MARINE...

ENOUGH OF A LINGERING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND DECENT MIXING HAS
RESULTED IN MARGINAL WNW GUSTS FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. THIS
WILL BE IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM...WHEN PEAK MIXING EASES AND GUSTS
DROP BELOW THE WIND CRITERIA.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

TONIGHT/TUESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...COLLAR
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WOOD





000
FXUS63 KMKX 031557
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1057 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...VFR THIS PERIOD. LLVL RH PROGS HAVE A GOOD
HANDLE ON CU/SC CANOPY WRAPPING SEWD AROUND CANADIAN VORTEX. THIS
WOULD KEEP THE SRN EDGE OF THIS CLOUD SHIELD NORTH OF TAF SITES.
WITH INFLUX OF DRIER SURFACE TDS THE CU RULE IS NOT LOOKING
FAVORABLE FOR SRN WI THOUGH BROAD CYCLONIC H5 FLOW ALOFT AND
COLDER TEMPS ALOFT SUGGEST KEEPING AN EYE ON SRN EXTENT OF THE CU
FIELD AS IT TRANSLATES SEWD THROUGH NRN AND CNTRL WI THIS
AFTN...THOUGH RAP SOUNDINGS SUGGEST VRY DRY COLUMN TO HOLD SWAY
VCNTY TAF SITES.

PC

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015/

TODAY AND TONIGHT - CONFIDENCE...HIGH.

DRIER...MUCH MORE STABLE AIR CONTINUES TO FUNNEL INTO SOUTHERN WI
EARLY THIS MRNG.  SOME PATCHY MID-CLOUDS AROUND 5K FEET SHOULD THIN
AND PUSH EAST OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MRNG AS WEAK LOW LEVEL COLD AIR
PUSH DIMINISHES AND BECOMES NEUTRAL.  BROADSCALE TROFFING WL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION INTO TONIGHT WITH AXIS OF UPPER JET OVER
SRN WI.  LIKELY TO BE SOME CU DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS MRNG BUT DRIER
AIR SURGE SHOULD PREVENT MUCH MORE THAN FEW-SCT CU.  SECOND WEAK
FRONT/DENSITY DISCONTINUITY MOVES ACROSS NRN WI TODAY AND ACROSS THE
SOUTH THIS EVE.  MAY BE ENOUGH OF A COOL AIR PUSH BEHIND THIS SECOND
FRONT TO BRING A PERIOD OF BKN CLOUDS TO NORTHEAST CWA BEFORE RH
THINS OVERNIGHT.  OTHERWISE...MUCH QUIETER FOR THESE PERIODS WITH
DAYTIME TEMPS RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL TODAY AND MUCH MORE
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES SHOULD BRING DRY WEATHER FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH DEEPER MOISTURE REMAINING JUST TO THE
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE CLOSE TO
NORMAL VALUES BOTH DAYS...EXCEPT FOR COOLER TEMPS NEAR LAKE
MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY UNDER ONSHORE WINDS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EASTWARD LATE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND...ALLOWING FOR A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TO BRING PRECIP
CHANCES BACK TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARD A
SLOWER EXIT OF THE HIGH...SO THURSDAY MAY END UP BEING DRY. KEPT
SOME LOW POPS IN THERE FOR NOW. HAVE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS
THEN FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH THE WAVES PROGGED TO MOVE
THROUGH. NOT GREAT MODEL AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF WAVES...SO POPS
STILL ON THE LOWER END AND SPREAD OUT THROUGH THESE LAST 3 DAYS OF
THE FORECAST.

HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIODS. COOLER TEMPS MORE LIKELY NEAR LAKE
MICHIGAN...AS ONSHORE WINDS PERSIST MOST DAYS.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...A VFR PERIOD LIES AHEAD.  FEW-SCT CU LIKELY TO
DEVELOP LATER THIS MRNG BUT DRIER AIR SETTLING INTO SOUTHERN WI
SHOULD LIMIT EXTENT OF CU AND QUICKLY RAISE THE CLOUD BASE TO VFR
LEVELS.  NORTHWEST BREEZES TO PICK UP THIS MRNG BUT GUSTS WL REMAIN
MOSTLY LESS THAN 20 KTS.

MARINE...ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MIXING EXPECTED LATER THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON TO CAUSE A FEW GUSTS TO REACH 20-22 KTS.  WL HOLD OFF ON
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO MOST GUSTS REMAINING BELOW ADVISORY
THRESHOLD. HIGHER ELEVATION OF SGNW3 WIND EQUIPMENT MAY REACH 25KTS
A FEW HOURS. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH RAPIDLY DURING THE EARLY
EVENING.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...DDV




000
FXUS63 KMKX 031557
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1057 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...VFR THIS PERIOD. LLVL RH PROGS HAVE A GOOD
HANDLE ON CU/SC CANOPY WRAPPING SEWD AROUND CANADIAN VORTEX. THIS
WOULD KEEP THE SRN EDGE OF THIS CLOUD SHIELD NORTH OF TAF SITES.
WITH INFLUX OF DRIER SURFACE TDS THE CU RULE IS NOT LOOKING
FAVORABLE FOR SRN WI THOUGH BROAD CYCLONIC H5 FLOW ALOFT AND
COLDER TEMPS ALOFT SUGGEST KEEPING AN EYE ON SRN EXTENT OF THE CU
FIELD AS IT TRANSLATES SEWD THROUGH NRN AND CNTRL WI THIS
AFTN...THOUGH RAP SOUNDINGS SUGGEST VRY DRY COLUMN TO HOLD SWAY
VCNTY TAF SITES.

PC

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015/

TODAY AND TONIGHT - CONFIDENCE...HIGH.

DRIER...MUCH MORE STABLE AIR CONTINUES TO FUNNEL INTO SOUTHERN WI
EARLY THIS MRNG.  SOME PATCHY MID-CLOUDS AROUND 5K FEET SHOULD THIN
AND PUSH EAST OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MRNG AS WEAK LOW LEVEL COLD AIR
PUSH DIMINISHES AND BECOMES NEUTRAL.  BROADSCALE TROFFING WL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION INTO TONIGHT WITH AXIS OF UPPER JET OVER
SRN WI.  LIKELY TO BE SOME CU DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS MRNG BUT DRIER
AIR SURGE SHOULD PREVENT MUCH MORE THAN FEW-SCT CU.  SECOND WEAK
FRONT/DENSITY DISCONTINUITY MOVES ACROSS NRN WI TODAY AND ACROSS THE
SOUTH THIS EVE.  MAY BE ENOUGH OF A COOL AIR PUSH BEHIND THIS SECOND
FRONT TO BRING A PERIOD OF BKN CLOUDS TO NORTHEAST CWA BEFORE RH
THINS OVERNIGHT.  OTHERWISE...MUCH QUIETER FOR THESE PERIODS WITH
DAYTIME TEMPS RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL TODAY AND MUCH MORE
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES SHOULD BRING DRY WEATHER FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH DEEPER MOISTURE REMAINING JUST TO THE
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE CLOSE TO
NORMAL VALUES BOTH DAYS...EXCEPT FOR COOLER TEMPS NEAR LAKE
MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY UNDER ONSHORE WINDS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EASTWARD LATE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND...ALLOWING FOR A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TO BRING PRECIP
CHANCES BACK TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARD A
SLOWER EXIT OF THE HIGH...SO THURSDAY MAY END UP BEING DRY. KEPT
SOME LOW POPS IN THERE FOR NOW. HAVE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS
THEN FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH THE WAVES PROGGED TO MOVE
THROUGH. NOT GREAT MODEL AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF WAVES...SO POPS
STILL ON THE LOWER END AND SPREAD OUT THROUGH THESE LAST 3 DAYS OF
THE FORECAST.

HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIODS. COOLER TEMPS MORE LIKELY NEAR LAKE
MICHIGAN...AS ONSHORE WINDS PERSIST MOST DAYS.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...A VFR PERIOD LIES AHEAD.  FEW-SCT CU LIKELY TO
DEVELOP LATER THIS MRNG BUT DRIER AIR SETTLING INTO SOUTHERN WI
SHOULD LIMIT EXTENT OF CU AND QUICKLY RAISE THE CLOUD BASE TO VFR
LEVELS.  NORTHWEST BREEZES TO PICK UP THIS MRNG BUT GUSTS WL REMAIN
MOSTLY LESS THAN 20 KTS.

MARINE...ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MIXING EXPECTED LATER THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON TO CAUSE A FEW GUSTS TO REACH 20-22 KTS.  WL HOLD OFF ON
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO MOST GUSTS REMAINING BELOW ADVISORY
THRESHOLD. HIGHER ELEVATION OF SGNW3 WIND EQUIPMENT MAY REACH 25KTS
A FEW HOURS. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH RAPIDLY DURING THE EARLY
EVENING.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...DDV





000
FXUS63 KMKX 030759
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
259 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.TODAY AND TONIGHT - CONFIDENCE...HIGH.

DRIER...MUCH MORE STABLE AIR CONTINUES TO FUNNEL INTO SOUTHERN WI
EARLY THIS MRNG.  SOME PATCHY MID-CLOUDS AROUND 5K FEET SHOULD THIN
AND PUSH EAST OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MRNG AS WEAK LOW LEVEL COLD AIR
PUSH DIMINISHES AND BECOMES NEUTRAL.  BROADSCALE TROFFING WL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION INTO TONIGHT WITH AXIS OF UPPER JET OVER
SRN WI.  LIKELY TO BE SOME CU DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS MRNG BUT DRIER
AIR SURGE SHOULD PREVENT MUCH MORE THAN FEW-SCT CU.  SECOND WEAK
FRONT/DENSITY DISCONTINUITY MOVES ACROSS NRN WI TODAY AND ACROSS THE
SOUTH THIS EVE.  MAY BE ENOUGH OF A COOL AIR PUSH BEHIND THIS SECOND
FRONT TO BRING A PERIOD OF BKN CLOUDS TO NORTHEAST CWA BEFORE RH
THINS OVERNIGHT.  OTHERWISE...MUCH QUIETER FOR THESE PERIODS WITH
DAYTIME TEMPS RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL TODAY AND MUCH MORE
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY.

.TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES SHOULD BRING DRY WEATHER FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH DEEPER MOISTURE REMAINING JUST TO THE
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE CLOSE TO
NORMAL VALUES BOTH DAYS...EXCEPT FOR COOLER TEMPS NEAR LAKE
MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY UNDER ONSHORE WINDS.

.THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EASTWARD LATE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND...ALLOWING FOR A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TO BRING PRECIP
CHANCES BACK TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARD A
SLOWER EXIT OF THE HIGH...SO THURSDAY MAY END UP BEING DRY. KEPT
SOME LOW POPS IN THERE FOR NOW. HAVE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS
THEN FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH THE WAVES PROGGED TO MOVE
THROUGH. NOT GREAT MODEL AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF WAVES...SO POPS
STILL ON THE LOWER END AND SPREAD OUT THROUGH THESE LAST 3 DAYS OF
THE FORECAST.

HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIODS. COOLER TEMPS MORE LIKELY NEAR LAKE
MICHIGAN...AS ONSHORE WINDS PERSIST MOST DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...A VFR PERIOD LIES AHEAD.  FEW-SCT CU LIKELY TO
DEVELOP LATER THIS MRNG BUT DRIER AIR SETTLING INTO SOUTHERN WI
SHOULD LIMIT EXTENT OF CU AND QUICKLY RAISE THE CLOUD BASE TO VFR
LEVELS.  NORTHWEST BREEZES TO PICK UP THIS MRNG BUT GUSTS WL REMAIN
MOSTLY LESS THAN 20 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MIXING EXPECTED LATER THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON TO CAUSE A FEW GUSTS TO REACH 20-22 KTS.  WL HOLD OFF ON
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO MOST GUSTS REMAINING BELOW ADVISORY
THRESHOLD. HIGHER ELEVATION OF SGNW3 WIND EQUIPMENT MAY REACH 25KTS
A FEW HOURS. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH RAPIDLY DURING THE EARLY
EVENING.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...DDV




000
FXUS63 KMKX 030759
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
259 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.TODAY AND TONIGHT - CONFIDENCE...HIGH.

DRIER...MUCH MORE STABLE AIR CONTINUES TO FUNNEL INTO SOUTHERN WI
EARLY THIS MRNG.  SOME PATCHY MID-CLOUDS AROUND 5K FEET SHOULD THIN
AND PUSH EAST OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MRNG AS WEAK LOW LEVEL COLD AIR
PUSH DIMINISHES AND BECOMES NEUTRAL.  BROADSCALE TROFFING WL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION INTO TONIGHT WITH AXIS OF UPPER JET OVER
SRN WI.  LIKELY TO BE SOME CU DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS MRNG BUT DRIER
AIR SURGE SHOULD PREVENT MUCH MORE THAN FEW-SCT CU.  SECOND WEAK
FRONT/DENSITY DISCONTINUITY MOVES ACROSS NRN WI TODAY AND ACROSS THE
SOUTH THIS EVE.  MAY BE ENOUGH OF A COOL AIR PUSH BEHIND THIS SECOND
FRONT TO BRING A PERIOD OF BKN CLOUDS TO NORTHEAST CWA BEFORE RH
THINS OVERNIGHT.  OTHERWISE...MUCH QUIETER FOR THESE PERIODS WITH
DAYTIME TEMPS RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL TODAY AND MUCH MORE
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY.

.TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES SHOULD BRING DRY WEATHER FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH DEEPER MOISTURE REMAINING JUST TO THE
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE CLOSE TO
NORMAL VALUES BOTH DAYS...EXCEPT FOR COOLER TEMPS NEAR LAKE
MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY UNDER ONSHORE WINDS.

.THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EASTWARD LATE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND...ALLOWING FOR A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TO BRING PRECIP
CHANCES BACK TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARD A
SLOWER EXIT OF THE HIGH...SO THURSDAY MAY END UP BEING DRY. KEPT
SOME LOW POPS IN THERE FOR NOW. HAVE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS
THEN FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH THE WAVES PROGGED TO MOVE
THROUGH. NOT GREAT MODEL AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF WAVES...SO POPS
STILL ON THE LOWER END AND SPREAD OUT THROUGH THESE LAST 3 DAYS OF
THE FORECAST.

HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIODS. COOLER TEMPS MORE LIKELY NEAR LAKE
MICHIGAN...AS ONSHORE WINDS PERSIST MOST DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...A VFR PERIOD LIES AHEAD.  FEW-SCT CU LIKELY TO
DEVELOP LATER THIS MRNG BUT DRIER AIR SETTLING INTO SOUTHERN WI
SHOULD LIMIT EXTENT OF CU AND QUICKLY RAISE THE CLOUD BASE TO VFR
LEVELS.  NORTHWEST BREEZES TO PICK UP THIS MRNG BUT GUSTS WL REMAIN
MOSTLY LESS THAN 20 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MIXING EXPECTED LATER THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON TO CAUSE A FEW GUSTS TO REACH 20-22 KTS.  WL HOLD OFF ON
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO MOST GUSTS REMAINING BELOW ADVISORY
THRESHOLD. HIGHER ELEVATION OF SGNW3 WIND EQUIPMENT MAY REACH 25KTS
A FEW HOURS. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH RAPIDLY DURING THE EARLY
EVENING.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...DDV





000
FXUS63 KMKX 030759
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
259 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.TODAY AND TONIGHT - CONFIDENCE...HIGH.

DRIER...MUCH MORE STABLE AIR CONTINUES TO FUNNEL INTO SOUTHERN WI
EARLY THIS MRNG.  SOME PATCHY MID-CLOUDS AROUND 5K FEET SHOULD THIN
AND PUSH EAST OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MRNG AS WEAK LOW LEVEL COLD AIR
PUSH DIMINISHES AND BECOMES NEUTRAL.  BROADSCALE TROFFING WL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION INTO TONIGHT WITH AXIS OF UPPER JET OVER
SRN WI.  LIKELY TO BE SOME CU DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS MRNG BUT DRIER
AIR SURGE SHOULD PREVENT MUCH MORE THAN FEW-SCT CU.  SECOND WEAK
FRONT/DENSITY DISCONTINUITY MOVES ACROSS NRN WI TODAY AND ACROSS THE
SOUTH THIS EVE.  MAY BE ENOUGH OF A COOL AIR PUSH BEHIND THIS SECOND
FRONT TO BRING A PERIOD OF BKN CLOUDS TO NORTHEAST CWA BEFORE RH
THINS OVERNIGHT.  OTHERWISE...MUCH QUIETER FOR THESE PERIODS WITH
DAYTIME TEMPS RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL TODAY AND MUCH MORE
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY.

.TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES SHOULD BRING DRY WEATHER FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH DEEPER MOISTURE REMAINING JUST TO THE
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE CLOSE TO
NORMAL VALUES BOTH DAYS...EXCEPT FOR COOLER TEMPS NEAR LAKE
MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY UNDER ONSHORE WINDS.

.THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EASTWARD LATE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND...ALLOWING FOR A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TO BRING PRECIP
CHANCES BACK TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARD A
SLOWER EXIT OF THE HIGH...SO THURSDAY MAY END UP BEING DRY. KEPT
SOME LOW POPS IN THERE FOR NOW. HAVE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS
THEN FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH THE WAVES PROGGED TO MOVE
THROUGH. NOT GREAT MODEL AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF WAVES...SO POPS
STILL ON THE LOWER END AND SPREAD OUT THROUGH THESE LAST 3 DAYS OF
THE FORECAST.

HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIODS. COOLER TEMPS MORE LIKELY NEAR LAKE
MICHIGAN...AS ONSHORE WINDS PERSIST MOST DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...A VFR PERIOD LIES AHEAD.  FEW-SCT CU LIKELY TO
DEVELOP LATER THIS MRNG BUT DRIER AIR SETTLING INTO SOUTHERN WI
SHOULD LIMIT EXTENT OF CU AND QUICKLY RAISE THE CLOUD BASE TO VFR
LEVELS.  NORTHWEST BREEZES TO PICK UP THIS MRNG BUT GUSTS WL REMAIN
MOSTLY LESS THAN 20 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MIXING EXPECTED LATER THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON TO CAUSE A FEW GUSTS TO REACH 20-22 KTS.  WL HOLD OFF ON
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO MOST GUSTS REMAINING BELOW ADVISORY
THRESHOLD. HIGHER ELEVATION OF SGNW3 WIND EQUIPMENT MAY REACH 25KTS
A FEW HOURS. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH RAPIDLY DURING THE EARLY
EVENING.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...DDV





000
FXUS63 KMKX 030357
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1057 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...ALTHOUGH COLD ADVECTION HAS BEGUN...LINGERING SFC-850 MB
MOISTURE AND RESULTANT ELEVATED CAPE IS COMBINING WITH PVA TO
BRING ISOLD SHOWERS FROM WINNEBAGO COUNTY TO FOND DU LAC COUNTY.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SSEWD AND POSSIBLY LAST
THROUGH 1 AM. OTHERWISE DRY AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CLEAR
THE SKIES EARLY MON AM. MODEST NWLY WINDS AND PLEASANT TEMPS AND
HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED FOR MON.


&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...NWLY WINDS WILL BRING DRIER AIR AND VFR
CONDITIONS FOR MON AND MON NT.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

INTENSE STORMS TRAVERSING ACROSS CENTRAL WI ON LEADING EDGE OF
DCVA AND VCNTY OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS ALSO IN AN ELONGATED AXIS
OF DEEP MOIST CONVERGENCE FROM JUST NORTH OF LSE TO NEAR GRB.
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS CONTINUE TO ALL BE VERY FAVORABLE. 0-1KM
BULK SHEAR IS AROUND 20 KNOTS WITH 0-6KM SHEAR 35-40 KNOTS.
RAP/WATER VAPOR COMBO SHOWS SHORTWAVE IN NRN WI SHIFTING ESE.

AS WE GET INTO THE EVENING SOME DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC VORTICITY
ADVECTION ARRIVES INTO SRN WI AS SHORTWAVE AXIS SLIDES SOUTHEAST.
TORNADO POTENTIAL HAS LOWERED DUE TO HIGHER LCL HEIGHTS UP TO
1750M ON SPC MESO CHARTS. SO SVR THREAT FOR NOW WILL BE FOCUSED
MORE ON DAMAGING WINDS WITH DOWNDRAFT CAPE AND HAIL WITH THE
FAVORABLE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

THE STRONGEST UPPER DIVERGENCE IS PROGGD INTO THE FAR SE CORNER
EASTWARD INTO LWR MI AS THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WEARS
ON. IN ADDITION THE 850 JET STRENGTHENS IN THE SE CORNER THOUGH WE
ARE SITUATED MORE IN THE ENTRANCE REGION VERSUS THE FAVORED
CYCLONICALLY FAVORED LEFT EXIT REGION.

MESO MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW DEVELOPMENT 22-02Z AS FAVORED TIME
FOR CWA WITH MORE OF A QLCS LOOK ON MESO REFLECTIVITY PROGS WITH
ELONGATED LOW LEVEL FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND BROAD DCVA HELPING TO
SUPPORT THAT MODE.

MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

NW MID LEVEL FLOW WILL STILL BE STRONG AND BROADLY CYCLONIC
THOUGH POST FRONTAL AIRMASS WILL BE A COOLER AND MUCH LESS HUMID.
925 TEMPS IN THE 18-20C RANGE SO LOOKING FOR HIGHS CLOSE TO MOS
VALUES IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S.

SHORT TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS MEDIUM.

MODELS ARE SHOWING NORTHWEST FLOW AT 500 MB BECOMING WEST
NORTHWEST DURING THIS PERIOD...AS THE MAIN TROUGH REMAINS TO THE
EAST OF THE REGION. AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE REMAINS
OVER THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE SHIFTING TO
THE NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY.

MODELS ARE KEEPING MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTH
OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY...CLOSER TO THE MAIN 500 MB SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE FAIRLY DRY ACROSS THE AREA
WITH THE HIGH...AND ARE ONLY SOMEWHAT MORE MOIST WEDNESDAY IN THE
WESTERN COUNTIES.

CONTINUED DRY FORECAST FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA. KEPT LOW POPS WEDNESDAY IN THE SOUTHWEST
COUNTIES...THOUGH THIS MAY END UP DRY AS WELL IF MODEL TRENDS
CONTINUE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS...ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN WITH LAKE BREEZES EACH
AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS MEDIUM.

GFS/ECMWF SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES WITH FEATURES FOR THE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY PERIOD. THEY DO AGREE ON SHOWING THE SURFACE
HIGH AXIS ESTABLISHING ITSELF AGAIN ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS
PERIOD. 500 MB FLOW REMAINS WEST NORTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THIS TIME...WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY. IT IS BETTER DEFINED ON THE ECMWF THAN THE GFS...AND THE
ECMWF SHOWS QPF WITH IT. THE GFS IS DRY FRIDAY.

GFS ALSO HAS CONVECTION CLIPPING THE SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...WHERE THE ECMWF IS
KEEPING THIS ACTIVITY FURTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST. FOR NOW...USED
CONSENSUS MODEL BLENDED POPS AND TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY PERIOD...GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE MODELS.

CONTINUED TO USE THE CONSENSUS POPS AND TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST
OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH CONTINUED DIFFERENCES IN TRENDS
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF. KEPT THINGS DRY FOR NOW...FOLLOWING THE
DRIER GFS VERSUS THE MORE ACTIVE ECMWF. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS TIME.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE ON POTENTIAL FOR SVR CONVECTION CHANCES FROM
MID AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT ON
TIMING WITH THE VARIOUS MESO MODELS...BUT OVERALL THE 22-02Z TIME
FRAME LOOKS LIKE THE BEST WINDOW FOR ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WITH
THE FRONT. SOME MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE WITH STRONGEST CELLS THIS
AFTN AND EVE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR MONDAY WITH MUCH QUIETER
CONDITIONS.

MARINE...

NO CHANGES TO MARINE HEADLINES. SEEING SOME GALE GUSTS FINALLY
KICK IN AS 850 JET CORE PASSES OVERHEAD. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEHRING
TONIGHT/MONDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...COLLAR
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...WOOD




000
FXUS63 KMKX 030357
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1057 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...ALTHOUGH COLD ADVECTION HAS BEGUN...LINGERING SFC-850 MB
MOISTURE AND RESULTANT ELEVATED CAPE IS COMBINING WITH PVA TO
BRING ISOLD SHOWERS FROM WINNEBAGO COUNTY TO FOND DU LAC COUNTY.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SSEWD AND POSSIBLY LAST
THROUGH 1 AM. OTHERWISE DRY AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CLEAR
THE SKIES EARLY MON AM. MODEST NWLY WINDS AND PLEASANT TEMPS AND
HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED FOR MON.


&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...NWLY WINDS WILL BRING DRIER AIR AND VFR
CONDITIONS FOR MON AND MON NT.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

INTENSE STORMS TRAVERSING ACROSS CENTRAL WI ON LEADING EDGE OF
DCVA AND VCNTY OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS ALSO IN AN ELONGATED AXIS
OF DEEP MOIST CONVERGENCE FROM JUST NORTH OF LSE TO NEAR GRB.
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS CONTINUE TO ALL BE VERY FAVORABLE. 0-1KM
BULK SHEAR IS AROUND 20 KNOTS WITH 0-6KM SHEAR 35-40 KNOTS.
RAP/WATER VAPOR COMBO SHOWS SHORTWAVE IN NRN WI SHIFTING ESE.

AS WE GET INTO THE EVENING SOME DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC VORTICITY
ADVECTION ARRIVES INTO SRN WI AS SHORTWAVE AXIS SLIDES SOUTHEAST.
TORNADO POTENTIAL HAS LOWERED DUE TO HIGHER LCL HEIGHTS UP TO
1750M ON SPC MESO CHARTS. SO SVR THREAT FOR NOW WILL BE FOCUSED
MORE ON DAMAGING WINDS WITH DOWNDRAFT CAPE AND HAIL WITH THE
FAVORABLE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

THE STRONGEST UPPER DIVERGENCE IS PROGGD INTO THE FAR SE CORNER
EASTWARD INTO LWR MI AS THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WEARS
ON. IN ADDITION THE 850 JET STRENGTHENS IN THE SE CORNER THOUGH WE
ARE SITUATED MORE IN THE ENTRANCE REGION VERSUS THE FAVORED
CYCLONICALLY FAVORED LEFT EXIT REGION.

MESO MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW DEVELOPMENT 22-02Z AS FAVORED TIME
FOR CWA WITH MORE OF A QLCS LOOK ON MESO REFLECTIVITY PROGS WITH
ELONGATED LOW LEVEL FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND BROAD DCVA HELPING TO
SUPPORT THAT MODE.

MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

NW MID LEVEL FLOW WILL STILL BE STRONG AND BROADLY CYCLONIC
THOUGH POST FRONTAL AIRMASS WILL BE A COOLER AND MUCH LESS HUMID.
925 TEMPS IN THE 18-20C RANGE SO LOOKING FOR HIGHS CLOSE TO MOS
VALUES IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S.

SHORT TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS MEDIUM.

MODELS ARE SHOWING NORTHWEST FLOW AT 500 MB BECOMING WEST
NORTHWEST DURING THIS PERIOD...AS THE MAIN TROUGH REMAINS TO THE
EAST OF THE REGION. AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE REMAINS
OVER THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE SHIFTING TO
THE NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY.

MODELS ARE KEEPING MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTH
OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY...CLOSER TO THE MAIN 500 MB SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE FAIRLY DRY ACROSS THE AREA
WITH THE HIGH...AND ARE ONLY SOMEWHAT MORE MOIST WEDNESDAY IN THE
WESTERN COUNTIES.

CONTINUED DRY FORECAST FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA. KEPT LOW POPS WEDNESDAY IN THE SOUTHWEST
COUNTIES...THOUGH THIS MAY END UP DRY AS WELL IF MODEL TRENDS
CONTINUE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS...ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN WITH LAKE BREEZES EACH
AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS MEDIUM.

GFS/ECMWF SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES WITH FEATURES FOR THE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY PERIOD. THEY DO AGREE ON SHOWING THE SURFACE
HIGH AXIS ESTABLISHING ITSELF AGAIN ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS
PERIOD. 500 MB FLOW REMAINS WEST NORTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THIS TIME...WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY. IT IS BETTER DEFINED ON THE ECMWF THAN THE GFS...AND THE
ECMWF SHOWS QPF WITH IT. THE GFS IS DRY FRIDAY.

GFS ALSO HAS CONVECTION CLIPPING THE SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...WHERE THE ECMWF IS
KEEPING THIS ACTIVITY FURTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST. FOR NOW...USED
CONSENSUS MODEL BLENDED POPS AND TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY PERIOD...GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE MODELS.

CONTINUED TO USE THE CONSENSUS POPS AND TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST
OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH CONTINUED DIFFERENCES IN TRENDS
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF. KEPT THINGS DRY FOR NOW...FOLLOWING THE
DRIER GFS VERSUS THE MORE ACTIVE ECMWF. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS TIME.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE ON POTENTIAL FOR SVR CONVECTION CHANCES FROM
MID AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT ON
TIMING WITH THE VARIOUS MESO MODELS...BUT OVERALL THE 22-02Z TIME
FRAME LOOKS LIKE THE BEST WINDOW FOR ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WITH
THE FRONT. SOME MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE WITH STRONGEST CELLS THIS
AFTN AND EVE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR MONDAY WITH MUCH QUIETER
CONDITIONS.

MARINE...

NO CHANGES TO MARINE HEADLINES. SEEING SOME GALE GUSTS FINALLY
KICK IN AS 850 JET CORE PASSES OVERHEAD. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEHRING
TONIGHT/MONDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...COLLAR
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...WOOD




000
FXUS63 KMKX 030357
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1057 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...ALTHOUGH COLD ADVECTION HAS BEGUN...LINGERING SFC-850 MB
MOISTURE AND RESULTANT ELEVATED CAPE IS COMBINING WITH PVA TO
BRING ISOLD SHOWERS FROM WINNEBAGO COUNTY TO FOND DU LAC COUNTY.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SSEWD AND POSSIBLY LAST
THROUGH 1 AM. OTHERWISE DRY AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CLEAR
THE SKIES EARLY MON AM. MODEST NWLY WINDS AND PLEASANT TEMPS AND
HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED FOR MON.


&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...NWLY WINDS WILL BRING DRIER AIR AND VFR
CONDITIONS FOR MON AND MON NT.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

INTENSE STORMS TRAVERSING ACROSS CENTRAL WI ON LEADING EDGE OF
DCVA AND VCNTY OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS ALSO IN AN ELONGATED AXIS
OF DEEP MOIST CONVERGENCE FROM JUST NORTH OF LSE TO NEAR GRB.
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS CONTINUE TO ALL BE VERY FAVORABLE. 0-1KM
BULK SHEAR IS AROUND 20 KNOTS WITH 0-6KM SHEAR 35-40 KNOTS.
RAP/WATER VAPOR COMBO SHOWS SHORTWAVE IN NRN WI SHIFTING ESE.

AS WE GET INTO THE EVENING SOME DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC VORTICITY
ADVECTION ARRIVES INTO SRN WI AS SHORTWAVE AXIS SLIDES SOUTHEAST.
TORNADO POTENTIAL HAS LOWERED DUE TO HIGHER LCL HEIGHTS UP TO
1750M ON SPC MESO CHARTS. SO SVR THREAT FOR NOW WILL BE FOCUSED
MORE ON DAMAGING WINDS WITH DOWNDRAFT CAPE AND HAIL WITH THE
FAVORABLE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

THE STRONGEST UPPER DIVERGENCE IS PROGGD INTO THE FAR SE CORNER
EASTWARD INTO LWR MI AS THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WEARS
ON. IN ADDITION THE 850 JET STRENGTHENS IN THE SE CORNER THOUGH WE
ARE SITUATED MORE IN THE ENTRANCE REGION VERSUS THE FAVORED
CYCLONICALLY FAVORED LEFT EXIT REGION.

MESO MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW DEVELOPMENT 22-02Z AS FAVORED TIME
FOR CWA WITH MORE OF A QLCS LOOK ON MESO REFLECTIVITY PROGS WITH
ELONGATED LOW LEVEL FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND BROAD DCVA HELPING TO
SUPPORT THAT MODE.

MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

NW MID LEVEL FLOW WILL STILL BE STRONG AND BROADLY CYCLONIC
THOUGH POST FRONTAL AIRMASS WILL BE A COOLER AND MUCH LESS HUMID.
925 TEMPS IN THE 18-20C RANGE SO LOOKING FOR HIGHS CLOSE TO MOS
VALUES IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S.

SHORT TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS MEDIUM.

MODELS ARE SHOWING NORTHWEST FLOW AT 500 MB BECOMING WEST
NORTHWEST DURING THIS PERIOD...AS THE MAIN TROUGH REMAINS TO THE
EAST OF THE REGION. AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE REMAINS
OVER THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE SHIFTING TO
THE NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY.

MODELS ARE KEEPING MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTH
OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY...CLOSER TO THE MAIN 500 MB SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE FAIRLY DRY ACROSS THE AREA
WITH THE HIGH...AND ARE ONLY SOMEWHAT MORE MOIST WEDNESDAY IN THE
WESTERN COUNTIES.

CONTINUED DRY FORECAST FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA. KEPT LOW POPS WEDNESDAY IN THE SOUTHWEST
COUNTIES...THOUGH THIS MAY END UP DRY AS WELL IF MODEL TRENDS
CONTINUE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS...ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN WITH LAKE BREEZES EACH
AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS MEDIUM.

GFS/ECMWF SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES WITH FEATURES FOR THE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY PERIOD. THEY DO AGREE ON SHOWING THE SURFACE
HIGH AXIS ESTABLISHING ITSELF AGAIN ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS
PERIOD. 500 MB FLOW REMAINS WEST NORTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THIS TIME...WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY. IT IS BETTER DEFINED ON THE ECMWF THAN THE GFS...AND THE
ECMWF SHOWS QPF WITH IT. THE GFS IS DRY FRIDAY.

GFS ALSO HAS CONVECTION CLIPPING THE SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...WHERE THE ECMWF IS
KEEPING THIS ACTIVITY FURTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST. FOR NOW...USED
CONSENSUS MODEL BLENDED POPS AND TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY PERIOD...GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE MODELS.

CONTINUED TO USE THE CONSENSUS POPS AND TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST
OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH CONTINUED DIFFERENCES IN TRENDS
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF. KEPT THINGS DRY FOR NOW...FOLLOWING THE
DRIER GFS VERSUS THE MORE ACTIVE ECMWF. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS TIME.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE ON POTENTIAL FOR SVR CONVECTION CHANCES FROM
MID AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT ON
TIMING WITH THE VARIOUS MESO MODELS...BUT OVERALL THE 22-02Z TIME
FRAME LOOKS LIKE THE BEST WINDOW FOR ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WITH
THE FRONT. SOME MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE WITH STRONGEST CELLS THIS
AFTN AND EVE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR MONDAY WITH MUCH QUIETER
CONDITIONS.

MARINE...

NO CHANGES TO MARINE HEADLINES. SEEING SOME GALE GUSTS FINALLY
KICK IN AS 850 JET CORE PASSES OVERHEAD. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEHRING
TONIGHT/MONDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...COLLAR
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...WOOD





000
FXUS63 KMKX 022048
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
348 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

INTENSE STORMS TRAVERSING ACROSS CENTRAL WI ON LEADING EDGE OF
DCVA AND VCNTY OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS ALSO IN AN ELONGATED AXIS
OF DEEP MOIST CONVERGENCE FROM JUST NORTH OF LSE TO NEAR GRB.
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS CONTINUE TO ALL BE VERY FAVORABLE. 0-1KM
BULK SHEAR IS AROUND 20 KNOTS WITH 0-6KM SHEAR 35-40 KNOTS.
RAP/WATER VAPOR COMBO SHOWS SHORTWAVE IN NRN WI SHIFTING ESE.

AS WE GET INTO THE EVENING SOME DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC VORTICITY
ADVECTION ARRIVES INTO SRN WI AS SHORTWAVE AXIS SLIDES SOUTHEAST.
TORNADO POTENTIAL HAS LOWERED DUE TO HIGHER LCL HEIGHTS UP TO
1750M ON SPC MESO CHARTS. SO SVR THREAT FOR NOW WILL BE FOCUSED
MORE ON DAMAGING WINDS WITH DOWNDRAFT CAPE AND HAIL WITH THE
FAVORABLE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

THE STRONGEST UPPER DIVERGENCE IS PROGGD INTO THE FAR SE CORNER
EASTWARD INTO LWR MI AS THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WEARS
ON. IN ADDITION THE 850 JET STRENGTHENS IN THE SE CORNER THOUGH WE
ARE SITUATED MORE IN THE ENTRANCE REGION VERSUS THE FAVORED
CYCLONICALLY FAVORED LEFT EXIT REGION.

MESO MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW DEVELOPMENT 22-02Z AS FAVORED TIME
FOR CWA WITH MORE OF A QLCS LOOK ON MESO REFLECTIVITY PROGS WITH
ELONGATED LOW LEVEL FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND BROAD DCVA HELPING TO
SUPPORT THAT MODE.

.MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

NW MID LEVEL FLOW WILL STILL BE STRONG AND BROADLY CYCLONIC
THOUGH POST FRONTAL AIRMASS WILL BE A COOLER AND MUCH LESS HUMID.
925 TEMPS IN THE 18-20C RANGE SO LOOKING FOR HIGHS CLOSE TO MOS
VALUES IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S.

.SHORT TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS MEDIUM.

MODELS ARE SHOWING NORTHWEST FLOW AT 500 MB BECOMING WEST
NORTHWEST DURING THIS PERIOD...AS THE MAIN TROUGH REMAINS TO THE
EAST OF THE REGION. AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE REMAINS
OVER THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE SHIFTING TO
THE NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY.

MODELS ARE KEEPING MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTH
OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY...CLOSER TO THE MAIN 500 MB SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE FAIRLY DRY ACROSS THE AREA
WITH THE HIGH...AND ARE ONLY SOMEWHAT MORE MOIST WEDNESDAY IN THE
WESTERN COUNTIES.

CONTINUED DRY FORECAST FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA. KEPT LOW POPS WEDNESDAY IN THE SOUTHWEST
COUNTIES...THOUGH THIS MAY END UP DRY AS WELL IF MODEL TRENDS
CONTINUE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS...ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN WITH LAKE BREEZES EACH
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS MEDIUM.

GFS/ECMWF SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES WITH FEATURES FOR THE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY PERIOD. THEY DO AGREE ON SHOWING THE SURFACE
HIGH AXIS ESTABLISHING ITSELF AGAIN ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS
PERIOD. 500 MB FLOW REMAINS WEST NORTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THIS TIME...WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY. IT IS BETTER DEFINED ON THE ECMWF THAN THE GFS...AND THE
ECMWF SHOWS QPF WITH IT. THE GFS IS DRY FRIDAY.

GFS ALSO HAS CONVECTION CLIPPING THE SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...WHERE THE ECMWF IS
KEEPING THIS ACTIVITY FURTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST. FOR NOW...USED
CONSENSUS MODEL BLENDED POPS AND TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY PERIOD...GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE MODELS.

CONTINUED TO USE THE CONSENSUS POPS AND TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST
OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH CONTINUED DIFFERENCES IN TRENDS
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF. KEPT THINGS DRY FOR NOW...FOLLOWING THE
DRIER GFS VERSUS THE MORE ACTIVE ECMWF. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE ON POTENTIAL FOR SVR CONVECTION CHANCES FROM
MID AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT ON
TIMING WITH THE VARIOUS MESO MODELS...BUT OVERALL THE 22-02Z TIME
FRAME LOOKS LIKE THE BEST WINDOW FOR ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WITH
THE FRONT. SOME MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE WITH STRONGEST CELLS THIS
AFTN AND EVE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR MONDAY WITH MUCH QUIETER
CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...

NO CHANGES TO MARINE HEADLINES. SEEING SOME GALE GUSTS FINALLY
KICK IN AS 850 JET CORE PASSES OVERHEAD. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ645-646.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643-644.

&&

$$

TONIGHT/MONDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...COLLAR
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...WOOD




000
FXUS63 KMKX 022048
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
348 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

INTENSE STORMS TRAVERSING ACROSS CENTRAL WI ON LEADING EDGE OF
DCVA AND VCNTY OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS ALSO IN AN ELONGATED AXIS
OF DEEP MOIST CONVERGENCE FROM JUST NORTH OF LSE TO NEAR GRB.
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS CONTINUE TO ALL BE VERY FAVORABLE. 0-1KM
BULK SHEAR IS AROUND 20 KNOTS WITH 0-6KM SHEAR 35-40 KNOTS.
RAP/WATER VAPOR COMBO SHOWS SHORTWAVE IN NRN WI SHIFTING ESE.

AS WE GET INTO THE EVENING SOME DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC VORTICITY
ADVECTION ARRIVES INTO SRN WI AS SHORTWAVE AXIS SLIDES SOUTHEAST.
TORNADO POTENTIAL HAS LOWERED DUE TO HIGHER LCL HEIGHTS UP TO
1750M ON SPC MESO CHARTS. SO SVR THREAT FOR NOW WILL BE FOCUSED
MORE ON DAMAGING WINDS WITH DOWNDRAFT CAPE AND HAIL WITH THE
FAVORABLE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

THE STRONGEST UPPER DIVERGENCE IS PROGGD INTO THE FAR SE CORNER
EASTWARD INTO LWR MI AS THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WEARS
ON. IN ADDITION THE 850 JET STRENGTHENS IN THE SE CORNER THOUGH WE
ARE SITUATED MORE IN THE ENTRANCE REGION VERSUS THE FAVORED
CYCLONICALLY FAVORED LEFT EXIT REGION.

MESO MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW DEVELOPMENT 22-02Z AS FAVORED TIME
FOR CWA WITH MORE OF A QLCS LOOK ON MESO REFLECTIVITY PROGS WITH
ELONGATED LOW LEVEL FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND BROAD DCVA HELPING TO
SUPPORT THAT MODE.

.MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

NW MID LEVEL FLOW WILL STILL BE STRONG AND BROADLY CYCLONIC
THOUGH POST FRONTAL AIRMASS WILL BE A COOLER AND MUCH LESS HUMID.
925 TEMPS IN THE 18-20C RANGE SO LOOKING FOR HIGHS CLOSE TO MOS
VALUES IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S.

.SHORT TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS MEDIUM.

MODELS ARE SHOWING NORTHWEST FLOW AT 500 MB BECOMING WEST
NORTHWEST DURING THIS PERIOD...AS THE MAIN TROUGH REMAINS TO THE
EAST OF THE REGION. AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE REMAINS
OVER THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE SHIFTING TO
THE NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY.

MODELS ARE KEEPING MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTH
OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY...CLOSER TO THE MAIN 500 MB SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE FAIRLY DRY ACROSS THE AREA
WITH THE HIGH...AND ARE ONLY SOMEWHAT MORE MOIST WEDNESDAY IN THE
WESTERN COUNTIES.

CONTINUED DRY FORECAST FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA. KEPT LOW POPS WEDNESDAY IN THE SOUTHWEST
COUNTIES...THOUGH THIS MAY END UP DRY AS WELL IF MODEL TRENDS
CONTINUE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS...ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN WITH LAKE BREEZES EACH
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS MEDIUM.

GFS/ECMWF SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES WITH FEATURES FOR THE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY PERIOD. THEY DO AGREE ON SHOWING THE SURFACE
HIGH AXIS ESTABLISHING ITSELF AGAIN ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS
PERIOD. 500 MB FLOW REMAINS WEST NORTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THIS TIME...WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY. IT IS BETTER DEFINED ON THE ECMWF THAN THE GFS...AND THE
ECMWF SHOWS QPF WITH IT. THE GFS IS DRY FRIDAY.

GFS ALSO HAS CONVECTION CLIPPING THE SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...WHERE THE ECMWF IS
KEEPING THIS ACTIVITY FURTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST. FOR NOW...USED
CONSENSUS MODEL BLENDED POPS AND TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY PERIOD...GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE MODELS.

CONTINUED TO USE THE CONSENSUS POPS AND TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST
OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH CONTINUED DIFFERENCES IN TRENDS
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF. KEPT THINGS DRY FOR NOW...FOLLOWING THE
DRIER GFS VERSUS THE MORE ACTIVE ECMWF. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE ON POTENTIAL FOR SVR CONVECTION CHANCES FROM
MID AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT ON
TIMING WITH THE VARIOUS MESO MODELS...BUT OVERALL THE 22-02Z TIME
FRAME LOOKS LIKE THE BEST WINDOW FOR ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WITH
THE FRONT. SOME MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE WITH STRONGEST CELLS THIS
AFTN AND EVE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR MONDAY WITH MUCH QUIETER
CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...

NO CHANGES TO MARINE HEADLINES. SEEING SOME GALE GUSTS FINALLY
KICK IN AS 850 JET CORE PASSES OVERHEAD. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ645-646.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643-644.

&&

$$

TONIGHT/MONDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...COLLAR
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...WOOD





000
FXUS63 KMKX 022048
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
348 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

INTENSE STORMS TRAVERSING ACROSS CENTRAL WI ON LEADING EDGE OF
DCVA AND VCNTY OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS ALSO IN AN ELONGATED AXIS
OF DEEP MOIST CONVERGENCE FROM JUST NORTH OF LSE TO NEAR GRB.
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS CONTINUE TO ALL BE VERY FAVORABLE. 0-1KM
BULK SHEAR IS AROUND 20 KNOTS WITH 0-6KM SHEAR 35-40 KNOTS.
RAP/WATER VAPOR COMBO SHOWS SHORTWAVE IN NRN WI SHIFTING ESE.

AS WE GET INTO THE EVENING SOME DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC VORTICITY
ADVECTION ARRIVES INTO SRN WI AS SHORTWAVE AXIS SLIDES SOUTHEAST.
TORNADO POTENTIAL HAS LOWERED DUE TO HIGHER LCL HEIGHTS UP TO
1750M ON SPC MESO CHARTS. SO SVR THREAT FOR NOW WILL BE FOCUSED
MORE ON DAMAGING WINDS WITH DOWNDRAFT CAPE AND HAIL WITH THE
FAVORABLE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

THE STRONGEST UPPER DIVERGENCE IS PROGGD INTO THE FAR SE CORNER
EASTWARD INTO LWR MI AS THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WEARS
ON. IN ADDITION THE 850 JET STRENGTHENS IN THE SE CORNER THOUGH WE
ARE SITUATED MORE IN THE ENTRANCE REGION VERSUS THE FAVORED
CYCLONICALLY FAVORED LEFT EXIT REGION.

MESO MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW DEVELOPMENT 22-02Z AS FAVORED TIME
FOR CWA WITH MORE OF A QLCS LOOK ON MESO REFLECTIVITY PROGS WITH
ELONGATED LOW LEVEL FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND BROAD DCVA HELPING TO
SUPPORT THAT MODE.

.MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

NW MID LEVEL FLOW WILL STILL BE STRONG AND BROADLY CYCLONIC
THOUGH POST FRONTAL AIRMASS WILL BE A COOLER AND MUCH LESS HUMID.
925 TEMPS IN THE 18-20C RANGE SO LOOKING FOR HIGHS CLOSE TO MOS
VALUES IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S.

.SHORT TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS MEDIUM.

MODELS ARE SHOWING NORTHWEST FLOW AT 500 MB BECOMING WEST
NORTHWEST DURING THIS PERIOD...AS THE MAIN TROUGH REMAINS TO THE
EAST OF THE REGION. AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE REMAINS
OVER THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE SHIFTING TO
THE NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY.

MODELS ARE KEEPING MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTH
OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY...CLOSER TO THE MAIN 500 MB SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE FAIRLY DRY ACROSS THE AREA
WITH THE HIGH...AND ARE ONLY SOMEWHAT MORE MOIST WEDNESDAY IN THE
WESTERN COUNTIES.

CONTINUED DRY FORECAST FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA. KEPT LOW POPS WEDNESDAY IN THE SOUTHWEST
COUNTIES...THOUGH THIS MAY END UP DRY AS WELL IF MODEL TRENDS
CONTINUE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS...ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN WITH LAKE BREEZES EACH
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS MEDIUM.

GFS/ECMWF SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES WITH FEATURES FOR THE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY PERIOD. THEY DO AGREE ON SHOWING THE SURFACE
HIGH AXIS ESTABLISHING ITSELF AGAIN ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS
PERIOD. 500 MB FLOW REMAINS WEST NORTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THIS TIME...WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY. IT IS BETTER DEFINED ON THE ECMWF THAN THE GFS...AND THE
ECMWF SHOWS QPF WITH IT. THE GFS IS DRY FRIDAY.

GFS ALSO HAS CONVECTION CLIPPING THE SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...WHERE THE ECMWF IS
KEEPING THIS ACTIVITY FURTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST. FOR NOW...USED
CONSENSUS MODEL BLENDED POPS AND TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY PERIOD...GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE MODELS.

CONTINUED TO USE THE CONSENSUS POPS AND TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST
OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH CONTINUED DIFFERENCES IN TRENDS
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF. KEPT THINGS DRY FOR NOW...FOLLOWING THE
DRIER GFS VERSUS THE MORE ACTIVE ECMWF. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE ON POTENTIAL FOR SVR CONVECTION CHANCES FROM
MID AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT ON
TIMING WITH THE VARIOUS MESO MODELS...BUT OVERALL THE 22-02Z TIME
FRAME LOOKS LIKE THE BEST WINDOW FOR ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WITH
THE FRONT. SOME MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE WITH STRONGEST CELLS THIS
AFTN AND EVE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR MONDAY WITH MUCH QUIETER
CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...

NO CHANGES TO MARINE HEADLINES. SEEING SOME GALE GUSTS FINALLY
KICK IN AS 850 JET CORE PASSES OVERHEAD. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ645-646.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643-644.

&&

$$

TONIGHT/MONDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...COLLAR
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...WOOD





000
FXUS63 KMKX 022048
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
348 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

INTENSE STORMS TRAVERSING ACROSS CENTRAL WI ON LEADING EDGE OF
DCVA AND VCNTY OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS ALSO IN AN ELONGATED AXIS
OF DEEP MOIST CONVERGENCE FROM JUST NORTH OF LSE TO NEAR GRB.
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS CONTINUE TO ALL BE VERY FAVORABLE. 0-1KM
BULK SHEAR IS AROUND 20 KNOTS WITH 0-6KM SHEAR 35-40 KNOTS.
RAP/WATER VAPOR COMBO SHOWS SHORTWAVE IN NRN WI SHIFTING ESE.

AS WE GET INTO THE EVENING SOME DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC VORTICITY
ADVECTION ARRIVES INTO SRN WI AS SHORTWAVE AXIS SLIDES SOUTHEAST.
TORNADO POTENTIAL HAS LOWERED DUE TO HIGHER LCL HEIGHTS UP TO
1750M ON SPC MESO CHARTS. SO SVR THREAT FOR NOW WILL BE FOCUSED
MORE ON DAMAGING WINDS WITH DOWNDRAFT CAPE AND HAIL WITH THE
FAVORABLE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

THE STRONGEST UPPER DIVERGENCE IS PROGGD INTO THE FAR SE CORNER
EASTWARD INTO LWR MI AS THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WEARS
ON. IN ADDITION THE 850 JET STRENGTHENS IN THE SE CORNER THOUGH WE
ARE SITUATED MORE IN THE ENTRANCE REGION VERSUS THE FAVORED
CYCLONICALLY FAVORED LEFT EXIT REGION.

MESO MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW DEVELOPMENT 22-02Z AS FAVORED TIME
FOR CWA WITH MORE OF A QLCS LOOK ON MESO REFLECTIVITY PROGS WITH
ELONGATED LOW LEVEL FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND BROAD DCVA HELPING TO
SUPPORT THAT MODE.

.MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

NW MID LEVEL FLOW WILL STILL BE STRONG AND BROADLY CYCLONIC
THOUGH POST FRONTAL AIRMASS WILL BE A COOLER AND MUCH LESS HUMID.
925 TEMPS IN THE 18-20C RANGE SO LOOKING FOR HIGHS CLOSE TO MOS
VALUES IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S.

.SHORT TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS MEDIUM.

MODELS ARE SHOWING NORTHWEST FLOW AT 500 MB BECOMING WEST
NORTHWEST DURING THIS PERIOD...AS THE MAIN TROUGH REMAINS TO THE
EAST OF THE REGION. AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE REMAINS
OVER THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE SHIFTING TO
THE NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY.

MODELS ARE KEEPING MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTH
OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY...CLOSER TO THE MAIN 500 MB SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE FAIRLY DRY ACROSS THE AREA
WITH THE HIGH...AND ARE ONLY SOMEWHAT MORE MOIST WEDNESDAY IN THE
WESTERN COUNTIES.

CONTINUED DRY FORECAST FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA. KEPT LOW POPS WEDNESDAY IN THE SOUTHWEST
COUNTIES...THOUGH THIS MAY END UP DRY AS WELL IF MODEL TRENDS
CONTINUE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS...ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN WITH LAKE BREEZES EACH
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS MEDIUM.

GFS/ECMWF SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES WITH FEATURES FOR THE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY PERIOD. THEY DO AGREE ON SHOWING THE SURFACE
HIGH AXIS ESTABLISHING ITSELF AGAIN ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS
PERIOD. 500 MB FLOW REMAINS WEST NORTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THIS TIME...WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY. IT IS BETTER DEFINED ON THE ECMWF THAN THE GFS...AND THE
ECMWF SHOWS QPF WITH IT. THE GFS IS DRY FRIDAY.

GFS ALSO HAS CONVECTION CLIPPING THE SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...WHERE THE ECMWF IS
KEEPING THIS ACTIVITY FURTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST. FOR NOW...USED
CONSENSUS MODEL BLENDED POPS AND TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY PERIOD...GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE MODELS.

CONTINUED TO USE THE CONSENSUS POPS AND TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST
OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH CONTINUED DIFFERENCES IN TRENDS
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF. KEPT THINGS DRY FOR NOW...FOLLOWING THE
DRIER GFS VERSUS THE MORE ACTIVE ECMWF. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE ON POTENTIAL FOR SVR CONVECTION CHANCES FROM
MID AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT ON
TIMING WITH THE VARIOUS MESO MODELS...BUT OVERALL THE 22-02Z TIME
FRAME LOOKS LIKE THE BEST WINDOW FOR ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WITH
THE FRONT. SOME MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE WITH STRONGEST CELLS THIS
AFTN AND EVE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR MONDAY WITH MUCH QUIETER
CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...

NO CHANGES TO MARINE HEADLINES. SEEING SOME GALE GUSTS FINALLY
KICK IN AS 850 JET CORE PASSES OVERHEAD. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ645-646.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643-644.

&&

$$

TONIGHT/MONDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...COLLAR
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...WOOD




000
FXUS63 KMKX 021534
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1034 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO PREVIOUS THINKING WITH RESPECT TO
SVR STORM POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. THOUGH
LOOKS LIKE TIMING MAY BE A BIT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL
WAVE RIDING SEWD FROM EC MN WILL INTERACT WITH SURFACE FRONT
SLICING INTO SRN WI DURG PEAK INSTABILITY. ML CAPES PER SPC MESO
PAGE ALREADY AT 2500 J/KG. SHEAR PARAMETERS...0-6KM AND 0-1 KM ARE
FAVORABLE. AS SURFACE LOW TRACKS SEWD FROM NW WI WILL BE
INTERESTING TO SEE IF WINDS CAN BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AND WEAKEN A
BIT IN VCNTY OF ANY STORMS AS THAT WOULD CERTAINLY ADD TO THE
SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR BETWEEN THE SURFACE AND 850 MILLIBARS.
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE QUITE FAVORABLE AS IS THE DOWNDRAFT CAPE
SO ANY STORMS WILL HAVE SVR WIND AND HAIL POTENTIAL. THE HRRR
MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING TO FEWER CELLS AS COMPARED TO THE
OVERNIGHT RUNS OF THE ARW AND NMM WHICH SHOWED A MORE SOLID LINE.
LATEST NAM-NEST CONTINUES TO SHOW A MORE SOLID LINE MODE AFFECTING
ENTIRE CWA. HIGHEST 250 DIVERGENCE AND 850 CONVERGENCE FAVORS EC
WI INTO LWR MI THOUGH FRONTAL FORCING AND EFFECTS OF MID LEVEL
WAVE WILL IMPACT ENTIRE CWA.

PC

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...MAIN CONCERN WILL BE ON POTENTIAL FOR SVR
CONVECTION CHANCES FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. IN
ADDITION SW SFC WINDS AHEAD OF SEWD ADVANCING COLD FRONT MAY GUST
OVER 30 KNOTS AT TIMES UNTIL GRADIENT SLACKENS AS SFC FRONT DRAWS
CLOSER AND PASSES BY THIS EVENING. SOME MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE WITH
STRONGEST CELLS THIS AFTN AND EVE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR
MONDAY WITH MUCH QUIETER CONDITIONS.

PC

&&

.MARINE...NO CHANGES TO MARINE HEADLINES. GREATEST GALE POTENTIAL
STILL LOOKS TO BE IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF NEARSHORE WATERS WITH
GALE WARNING IN EFFECT STARTING TO 2 PM THERE.

PC

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/

TODAY AND TONIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.

RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET DRIVING CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN
WI EARLY THIS MRNG.  THIS SYNOPTIC FORCING SLIDES EAST INTO NORTHERN
LOWER MI THIS MRNG.  FARTHER SOUTH...LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
CONTINUING BUT ELEVATED CIN LAYER HAS BEEN SUPPRESSING CONVECTION
EXCEPT FOR A FEW SHOWERS.  HOWEVER SPC MESOSCALE ANALYSIS SHOWS
ELEVATED CIN LAYER WEAKENING A BIT WHILE THIS WARM AIR ADVECTION
RELATED TO INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET SPREADS ACROSS SRN WI.  IN
ADDITION...WEAK LOW LEVEL SHORT WAVE NOTED ON WIND PROFILERS MOST
LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO ISOLD CONVECTION ACROSS SRN WI.  HENCE NEED
TO CONTINUE SMALL POPS THIS MRNG.  DEBRIS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION
CLOUDS THIS MRNG SHOULD THIN IN TIME FOR THE AFTERNOON AS 925H TEMPS
WARM TO AROUND 27-28C.  STRONG LOW LEVEL MIXING WILL CARRY THIS WARM
AIR TO SURFACE RESULTING IN AFTERNOON TEMPS PEAKING IN THE UPPER 80S
TO LOWER 90S.  HEAT INDEX READINGS WILL REACH THE 92 TO 97 DEGREE
RANGE THIS AFTN DUE TO THE WARM TEMPS AND 60S DEWPOINTS.

ENOUGH INSOLATION IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON TO RESULT IN WINDY
CONDITIONS WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 35 TO 40 MPH.
MAY REACH WIND ADVISORY SUSTAINED WIND THRESHOLD OF 26KTS OR HIGHER
AT SOME SOUTHERN LOCATIONS FOR AN HOUR...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE
AT THIS POINT TO ISSUE HEADLINE.  ALREADY ISSUED SPS FOCUSING ON
STRONG WINDS THIS AFTN ACROSS SRN CWA AND WILL HIGHLIGHT IN HWO.

SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON UPSTREAM STRONG SFC
COLD FRONT OVER WRN MN SAGGING SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WI
THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVENING.  STRONG MORNING CAPPING INVERSION
SHOULD ALLOW BUILD-UP OF INSTABILITY WITH DEWPOINTS LIKELY TO POOL
ALONG FRONT THIS AFTN.  DEWPTS MAY INCREASE TO AROUND 70.  CAPE
EXPECTD TO INCREASE TO 3 TO 4K J/KG AHEAD OF FRONT.  0-6KM BULK
SHEAR TO INCREASE TO 30 TO 40KTS WITH IMPRESSIVE 1KM SHEAR OF 20 TO
30KTS.  IN ADDITION...MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO RISE EVEN FURTHER TO
AROUND 8C.  SPC STORM SCALE ENSEMBLE OF OPPORTUNITY HAS MOST
MESOSCALE MODELS SHOWING UPDRAFT HELICITY VALUES LIKELY TO BE
GREATER THAN 25 M2/S2 JUST TO THE NORTH OF CWA THIS AFTN.  3 HOUR
PROBABILITY OF UPDRAFT SPEED EXCEEDING 20KTS LIKELY IN NRN CWA THIS
AFTN.  WITH STRONG COLD FRONT SAGGING INTO THE NORTHERN CWA...BEEFED
UP POPS TO LIKELY LATE AFTN IN THE NORTH AND EAST CARRYING OVER INTO
THE EARLY EVE.  OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLY MORNING NRN WI
CONVECTION SHOULD GET NUDGED BACK TO THE NORTH AS WELL.  NOT
EXPECTING DEBRIS CLOUDS THIS AFTN INTO THE EVENING SO THINKING MUCH
OF THE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL BE REALIZED AHEAD OF FRONT.  AGREE
WITH SPC UPGRADE TO ENHANCED THIS AFTN.

CDFNT QUICKLY SWEEPS THRU SRN WI DURING THE EVENING ALLOWING
DRIER...MORE STABLE CONDITIONS TO RAPIDLY RETURN OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

EXPECT DRY WEATHER MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST AND MODEL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DROP TO AROUND
HALF OF AN INCH. SHOULD REMAIN DRY TUESDAY UNDER THE HIGH.

HIGH TEMPS MON/TUE SHOULD BE RIGHT NEAR NORMAL VALUES.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE NORTHEASTWARD
WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING FOR A RETURN OF DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE AREA.
THE GFS IS QUICKEST WITH THE MOISTURE RETURN...BRINGING A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. ECMWF/CANADIAN
SOLUTIONS ARE SLOWER AND DRY WED. FIGURED IT WAS AT LEAST SOME
LOW POPS GIVEN THE GFS.

POPS THEN A LITTLE HIGHER FOR WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS GFS AND
ECMWF BOTH SLIDE A SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE AREA.

SHOULD TURN DRIER FOR FRI/SAT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO
THE AREA.

TEMPS EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND UNDER PERSISTENT
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...ISOLD CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER
THIS MRNG ACROSS SRN WI.  HOWEVER VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE AFTN.  A WINDY DAY IS EXPECTED WITH GUSTS PERHAPS REACHING 35
KTS THIS AFTN PENDING SKY COVER AND AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MIXING.  A
PERIOD OF SCT CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THIS AFTN AND EVENING.  SOME OF
THE CONVECTION MAY PRODUCE STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.  NEED TO
INCLUDE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR REMARK IN KMSN TAF FOR A FEW HOURS
UNTIL WINDS INCREASE.  FARTHER EAST...MORE BORDERLINE LLWS SITUATION
WHILE SFC WINDS REMAIN LIGHTER THIS MRNG.

MARINE...TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD
FRONT AND INSOLATION WILL ALLOW STRONG WIND TO MIX DOWN TO SHORE
SURFACE AND AFFECT NEARSHORE WATERS LATER TODAY.  WIND GUSTS COULD
GET AS HIGH AS 38 KNOTS ACROSS SOUTHERN MARINE ZONES.  HENCE
UPGRADED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SOUTH OF NORTH POINT LIGHT TO GALE
WARNING FOR THE AFTERNOON.  ALSO EXTENDED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
NORTHERN ZONES UNTIL 00Z.  MARINERS NEED TO BE AWARE OF THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS AFFECTING THE NEARSHORE WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND BE READY TO SEEK SAFE HARBOR.


BEACHES...STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT THE BEACHES TODAY.
DUE TO THE OFFSHORE NATURE...WAVE HEIGHTS AT LAKE MICHIGAN BEACHES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOWER...MAINLY BETWEEN 1 AND 3 FEET RESULTING IN
LOW TO MODERATE SWIM RISK CONDITIONS.  SWIMMERS WILL NEED TO BE
CAUTIOUS OF THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TSTORMS AFFECTING THE BEACHES
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE AND BE READY TO SEEK SHELTER QUICKLY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ645-
     646.

     GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR LMZ645-646.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643-644.

&&

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DDV





000
FXUS63 KMKX 021534
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1034 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO PREVIOUS THINKING WITH RESPECT TO
SVR STORM POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. THOUGH
LOOKS LIKE TIMING MAY BE A BIT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL
WAVE RIDING SEWD FROM EC MN WILL INTERACT WITH SURFACE FRONT
SLICING INTO SRN WI DURG PEAK INSTABILITY. ML CAPES PER SPC MESO
PAGE ALREADY AT 2500 J/KG. SHEAR PARAMETERS...0-6KM AND 0-1 KM ARE
FAVORABLE. AS SURFACE LOW TRACKS SEWD FROM NW WI WILL BE
INTERESTING TO SEE IF WINDS CAN BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AND WEAKEN A
BIT IN VCNTY OF ANY STORMS AS THAT WOULD CERTAINLY ADD TO THE
SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR BETWEEN THE SURFACE AND 850 MILLIBARS.
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE QUITE FAVORABLE AS IS THE DOWNDRAFT CAPE
SO ANY STORMS WILL HAVE SVR WIND AND HAIL POTENTIAL. THE HRRR
MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING TO FEWER CELLS AS COMPARED TO THE
OVERNIGHT RUNS OF THE ARW AND NMM WHICH SHOWED A MORE SOLID LINE.
LATEST NAM-NEST CONTINUES TO SHOW A MORE SOLID LINE MODE AFFECTING
ENTIRE CWA. HIGHEST 250 DIVERGENCE AND 850 CONVERGENCE FAVORS EC
WI INTO LWR MI THOUGH FRONTAL FORCING AND EFFECTS OF MID LEVEL
WAVE WILL IMPACT ENTIRE CWA.

PC

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...MAIN CONCERN WILL BE ON POTENTIAL FOR SVR
CONVECTION CHANCES FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. IN
ADDITION SW SFC WINDS AHEAD OF SEWD ADVANCING COLD FRONT MAY GUST
OVER 30 KNOTS AT TIMES UNTIL GRADIENT SLACKENS AS SFC FRONT DRAWS
CLOSER AND PASSES BY THIS EVENING. SOME MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE WITH
STRONGEST CELLS THIS AFTN AND EVE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR
MONDAY WITH MUCH QUIETER CONDITIONS.

PC

&&

.MARINE...NO CHANGES TO MARINE HEADLINES. GREATEST GALE POTENTIAL
STILL LOOKS TO BE IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF NEARSHORE WATERS WITH
GALE WARNING IN EFFECT STARTING TO 2 PM THERE.

PC

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/

TODAY AND TONIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.

RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET DRIVING CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN
WI EARLY THIS MRNG.  THIS SYNOPTIC FORCING SLIDES EAST INTO NORTHERN
LOWER MI THIS MRNG.  FARTHER SOUTH...LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
CONTINUING BUT ELEVATED CIN LAYER HAS BEEN SUPPRESSING CONVECTION
EXCEPT FOR A FEW SHOWERS.  HOWEVER SPC MESOSCALE ANALYSIS SHOWS
ELEVATED CIN LAYER WEAKENING A BIT WHILE THIS WARM AIR ADVECTION
RELATED TO INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET SPREADS ACROSS SRN WI.  IN
ADDITION...WEAK LOW LEVEL SHORT WAVE NOTED ON WIND PROFILERS MOST
LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO ISOLD CONVECTION ACROSS SRN WI.  HENCE NEED
TO CONTINUE SMALL POPS THIS MRNG.  DEBRIS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION
CLOUDS THIS MRNG SHOULD THIN IN TIME FOR THE AFTERNOON AS 925H TEMPS
WARM TO AROUND 27-28C.  STRONG LOW LEVEL MIXING WILL CARRY THIS WARM
AIR TO SURFACE RESULTING IN AFTERNOON TEMPS PEAKING IN THE UPPER 80S
TO LOWER 90S.  HEAT INDEX READINGS WILL REACH THE 92 TO 97 DEGREE
RANGE THIS AFTN DUE TO THE WARM TEMPS AND 60S DEWPOINTS.

ENOUGH INSOLATION IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON TO RESULT IN WINDY
CONDITIONS WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 35 TO 40 MPH.
MAY REACH WIND ADVISORY SUSTAINED WIND THRESHOLD OF 26KTS OR HIGHER
AT SOME SOUTHERN LOCATIONS FOR AN HOUR...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE
AT THIS POINT TO ISSUE HEADLINE.  ALREADY ISSUED SPS FOCUSING ON
STRONG WINDS THIS AFTN ACROSS SRN CWA AND WILL HIGHLIGHT IN HWO.

SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON UPSTREAM STRONG SFC
COLD FRONT OVER WRN MN SAGGING SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WI
THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVENING.  STRONG MORNING CAPPING INVERSION
SHOULD ALLOW BUILD-UP OF INSTABILITY WITH DEWPOINTS LIKELY TO POOL
ALONG FRONT THIS AFTN.  DEWPTS MAY INCREASE TO AROUND 70.  CAPE
EXPECTD TO INCREASE TO 3 TO 4K J/KG AHEAD OF FRONT.  0-6KM BULK
SHEAR TO INCREASE TO 30 TO 40KTS WITH IMPRESSIVE 1KM SHEAR OF 20 TO
30KTS.  IN ADDITION...MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO RISE EVEN FURTHER TO
AROUND 8C.  SPC STORM SCALE ENSEMBLE OF OPPORTUNITY HAS MOST
MESOSCALE MODELS SHOWING UPDRAFT HELICITY VALUES LIKELY TO BE
GREATER THAN 25 M2/S2 JUST TO THE NORTH OF CWA THIS AFTN.  3 HOUR
PROBABILITY OF UPDRAFT SPEED EXCEEDING 20KTS LIKELY IN NRN CWA THIS
AFTN.  WITH STRONG COLD FRONT SAGGING INTO THE NORTHERN CWA...BEEFED
UP POPS TO LIKELY LATE AFTN IN THE NORTH AND EAST CARRYING OVER INTO
THE EARLY EVE.  OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLY MORNING NRN WI
CONVECTION SHOULD GET NUDGED BACK TO THE NORTH AS WELL.  NOT
EXPECTING DEBRIS CLOUDS THIS AFTN INTO THE EVENING SO THINKING MUCH
OF THE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL BE REALIZED AHEAD OF FRONT.  AGREE
WITH SPC UPGRADE TO ENHANCED THIS AFTN.

CDFNT QUICKLY SWEEPS THRU SRN WI DURING THE EVENING ALLOWING
DRIER...MORE STABLE CONDITIONS TO RAPIDLY RETURN OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

EXPECT DRY WEATHER MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST AND MODEL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DROP TO AROUND
HALF OF AN INCH. SHOULD REMAIN DRY TUESDAY UNDER THE HIGH.

HIGH TEMPS MON/TUE SHOULD BE RIGHT NEAR NORMAL VALUES.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE NORTHEASTWARD
WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING FOR A RETURN OF DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE AREA.
THE GFS IS QUICKEST WITH THE MOISTURE RETURN...BRINGING A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. ECMWF/CANADIAN
SOLUTIONS ARE SLOWER AND DRY WED. FIGURED IT WAS AT LEAST SOME
LOW POPS GIVEN THE GFS.

POPS THEN A LITTLE HIGHER FOR WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS GFS AND
ECMWF BOTH SLIDE A SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE AREA.

SHOULD TURN DRIER FOR FRI/SAT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO
THE AREA.

TEMPS EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND UNDER PERSISTENT
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...ISOLD CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER
THIS MRNG ACROSS SRN WI.  HOWEVER VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE AFTN.  A WINDY DAY IS EXPECTED WITH GUSTS PERHAPS REACHING 35
KTS THIS AFTN PENDING SKY COVER AND AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MIXING.  A
PERIOD OF SCT CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THIS AFTN AND EVENING.  SOME OF
THE CONVECTION MAY PRODUCE STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.  NEED TO
INCLUDE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR REMARK IN KMSN TAF FOR A FEW HOURS
UNTIL WINDS INCREASE.  FARTHER EAST...MORE BORDERLINE LLWS SITUATION
WHILE SFC WINDS REMAIN LIGHTER THIS MRNG.

MARINE...TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD
FRONT AND INSOLATION WILL ALLOW STRONG WIND TO MIX DOWN TO SHORE
SURFACE AND AFFECT NEARSHORE WATERS LATER TODAY.  WIND GUSTS COULD
GET AS HIGH AS 38 KNOTS ACROSS SOUTHERN MARINE ZONES.  HENCE
UPGRADED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SOUTH OF NORTH POINT LIGHT TO GALE
WARNING FOR THE AFTERNOON.  ALSO EXTENDED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
NORTHERN ZONES UNTIL 00Z.  MARINERS NEED TO BE AWARE OF THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS AFFECTING THE NEARSHORE WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND BE READY TO SEEK SAFE HARBOR.


BEACHES...STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT THE BEACHES TODAY.
DUE TO THE OFFSHORE NATURE...WAVE HEIGHTS AT LAKE MICHIGAN BEACHES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOWER...MAINLY BETWEEN 1 AND 3 FEET RESULTING IN
LOW TO MODERATE SWIM RISK CONDITIONS.  SWIMMERS WILL NEED TO BE
CAUTIOUS OF THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TSTORMS AFFECTING THE BEACHES
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE AND BE READY TO SEEK SHELTER QUICKLY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ645-
     646.

     GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR LMZ645-646.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643-644.

&&

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DDV





000
FXUS63 KMKX 021534
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1034 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO PREVIOUS THINKING WITH RESPECT TO
SVR STORM POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. THOUGH
LOOKS LIKE TIMING MAY BE A BIT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL
WAVE RIDING SEWD FROM EC MN WILL INTERACT WITH SURFACE FRONT
SLICING INTO SRN WI DURG PEAK INSTABILITY. ML CAPES PER SPC MESO
PAGE ALREADY AT 2500 J/KG. SHEAR PARAMETERS...0-6KM AND 0-1 KM ARE
FAVORABLE. AS SURFACE LOW TRACKS SEWD FROM NW WI WILL BE
INTERESTING TO SEE IF WINDS CAN BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AND WEAKEN A
BIT IN VCNTY OF ANY STORMS AS THAT WOULD CERTAINLY ADD TO THE
SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR BETWEEN THE SURFACE AND 850 MILLIBARS.
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE QUITE FAVORABLE AS IS THE DOWNDRAFT CAPE
SO ANY STORMS WILL HAVE SVR WIND AND HAIL POTENTIAL. THE HRRR
MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING TO FEWER CELLS AS COMPARED TO THE
OVERNIGHT RUNS OF THE ARW AND NMM WHICH SHOWED A MORE SOLID LINE.
LATEST NAM-NEST CONTINUES TO SHOW A MORE SOLID LINE MODE AFFECTING
ENTIRE CWA. HIGHEST 250 DIVERGENCE AND 850 CONVERGENCE FAVORS EC
WI INTO LWR MI THOUGH FRONTAL FORCING AND EFFECTS OF MID LEVEL
WAVE WILL IMPACT ENTIRE CWA.

PC

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...MAIN CONCERN WILL BE ON POTENTIAL FOR SVR
CONVECTION CHANCES FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. IN
ADDITION SW SFC WINDS AHEAD OF SEWD ADVANCING COLD FRONT MAY GUST
OVER 30 KNOTS AT TIMES UNTIL GRADIENT SLACKENS AS SFC FRONT DRAWS
CLOSER AND PASSES BY THIS EVENING. SOME MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE WITH
STRONGEST CELLS THIS AFTN AND EVE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR
MONDAY WITH MUCH QUIETER CONDITIONS.

PC

&&

.MARINE...NO CHANGES TO MARINE HEADLINES. GREATEST GALE POTENTIAL
STILL LOOKS TO BE IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF NEARSHORE WATERS WITH
GALE WARNING IN EFFECT STARTING TO 2 PM THERE.

PC

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/

TODAY AND TONIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.

RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET DRIVING CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN
WI EARLY THIS MRNG.  THIS SYNOPTIC FORCING SLIDES EAST INTO NORTHERN
LOWER MI THIS MRNG.  FARTHER SOUTH...LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
CONTINUING BUT ELEVATED CIN LAYER HAS BEEN SUPPRESSING CONVECTION
EXCEPT FOR A FEW SHOWERS.  HOWEVER SPC MESOSCALE ANALYSIS SHOWS
ELEVATED CIN LAYER WEAKENING A BIT WHILE THIS WARM AIR ADVECTION
RELATED TO INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET SPREADS ACROSS SRN WI.  IN
ADDITION...WEAK LOW LEVEL SHORT WAVE NOTED ON WIND PROFILERS MOST
LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO ISOLD CONVECTION ACROSS SRN WI.  HENCE NEED
TO CONTINUE SMALL POPS THIS MRNG.  DEBRIS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION
CLOUDS THIS MRNG SHOULD THIN IN TIME FOR THE AFTERNOON AS 925H TEMPS
WARM TO AROUND 27-28C.  STRONG LOW LEVEL MIXING WILL CARRY THIS WARM
AIR TO SURFACE RESULTING IN AFTERNOON TEMPS PEAKING IN THE UPPER 80S
TO LOWER 90S.  HEAT INDEX READINGS WILL REACH THE 92 TO 97 DEGREE
RANGE THIS AFTN DUE TO THE WARM TEMPS AND 60S DEWPOINTS.

ENOUGH INSOLATION IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON TO RESULT IN WINDY
CONDITIONS WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 35 TO 40 MPH.
MAY REACH WIND ADVISORY SUSTAINED WIND THRESHOLD OF 26KTS OR HIGHER
AT SOME SOUTHERN LOCATIONS FOR AN HOUR...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE
AT THIS POINT TO ISSUE HEADLINE.  ALREADY ISSUED SPS FOCUSING ON
STRONG WINDS THIS AFTN ACROSS SRN CWA AND WILL HIGHLIGHT IN HWO.

SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON UPSTREAM STRONG SFC
COLD FRONT OVER WRN MN SAGGING SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WI
THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVENING.  STRONG MORNING CAPPING INVERSION
SHOULD ALLOW BUILD-UP OF INSTABILITY WITH DEWPOINTS LIKELY TO POOL
ALONG FRONT THIS AFTN.  DEWPTS MAY INCREASE TO AROUND 70.  CAPE
EXPECTD TO INCREASE TO 3 TO 4K J/KG AHEAD OF FRONT.  0-6KM BULK
SHEAR TO INCREASE TO 30 TO 40KTS WITH IMPRESSIVE 1KM SHEAR OF 20 TO
30KTS.  IN ADDITION...MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO RISE EVEN FURTHER TO
AROUND 8C.  SPC STORM SCALE ENSEMBLE OF OPPORTUNITY HAS MOST
MESOSCALE MODELS SHOWING UPDRAFT HELICITY VALUES LIKELY TO BE
GREATER THAN 25 M2/S2 JUST TO THE NORTH OF CWA THIS AFTN.  3 HOUR
PROBABILITY OF UPDRAFT SPEED EXCEEDING 20KTS LIKELY IN NRN CWA THIS
AFTN.  WITH STRONG COLD FRONT SAGGING INTO THE NORTHERN CWA...BEEFED
UP POPS TO LIKELY LATE AFTN IN THE NORTH AND EAST CARRYING OVER INTO
THE EARLY EVE.  OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLY MORNING NRN WI
CONVECTION SHOULD GET NUDGED BACK TO THE NORTH AS WELL.  NOT
EXPECTING DEBRIS CLOUDS THIS AFTN INTO THE EVENING SO THINKING MUCH
OF THE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL BE REALIZED AHEAD OF FRONT.  AGREE
WITH SPC UPGRADE TO ENHANCED THIS AFTN.

CDFNT QUICKLY SWEEPS THRU SRN WI DURING THE EVENING ALLOWING
DRIER...MORE STABLE CONDITIONS TO RAPIDLY RETURN OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

EXPECT DRY WEATHER MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST AND MODEL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DROP TO AROUND
HALF OF AN INCH. SHOULD REMAIN DRY TUESDAY UNDER THE HIGH.

HIGH TEMPS MON/TUE SHOULD BE RIGHT NEAR NORMAL VALUES.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE NORTHEASTWARD
WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING FOR A RETURN OF DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE AREA.
THE GFS IS QUICKEST WITH THE MOISTURE RETURN...BRINGING A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. ECMWF/CANADIAN
SOLUTIONS ARE SLOWER AND DRY WED. FIGURED IT WAS AT LEAST SOME
LOW POPS GIVEN THE GFS.

POPS THEN A LITTLE HIGHER FOR WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS GFS AND
ECMWF BOTH SLIDE A SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE AREA.

SHOULD TURN DRIER FOR FRI/SAT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO
THE AREA.

TEMPS EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND UNDER PERSISTENT
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...ISOLD CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER
THIS MRNG ACROSS SRN WI.  HOWEVER VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE AFTN.  A WINDY DAY IS EXPECTED WITH GUSTS PERHAPS REACHING 35
KTS THIS AFTN PENDING SKY COVER AND AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MIXING.  A
PERIOD OF SCT CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THIS AFTN AND EVENING.  SOME OF
THE CONVECTION MAY PRODUCE STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.  NEED TO
INCLUDE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR REMARK IN KMSN TAF FOR A FEW HOURS
UNTIL WINDS INCREASE.  FARTHER EAST...MORE BORDERLINE LLWS SITUATION
WHILE SFC WINDS REMAIN LIGHTER THIS MRNG.

MARINE...TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD
FRONT AND INSOLATION WILL ALLOW STRONG WIND TO MIX DOWN TO SHORE
SURFACE AND AFFECT NEARSHORE WATERS LATER TODAY.  WIND GUSTS COULD
GET AS HIGH AS 38 KNOTS ACROSS SOUTHERN MARINE ZONES.  HENCE
UPGRADED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SOUTH OF NORTH POINT LIGHT TO GALE
WARNING FOR THE AFTERNOON.  ALSO EXTENDED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
NORTHERN ZONES UNTIL 00Z.  MARINERS NEED TO BE AWARE OF THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS AFFECTING THE NEARSHORE WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND BE READY TO SEEK SAFE HARBOR.


BEACHES...STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT THE BEACHES TODAY.
DUE TO THE OFFSHORE NATURE...WAVE HEIGHTS AT LAKE MICHIGAN BEACHES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOWER...MAINLY BETWEEN 1 AND 3 FEET RESULTING IN
LOW TO MODERATE SWIM RISK CONDITIONS.  SWIMMERS WILL NEED TO BE
CAUTIOUS OF THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TSTORMS AFFECTING THE BEACHES
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE AND BE READY TO SEEK SHELTER QUICKLY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ645-
     646.

     GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR LMZ645-646.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643-644.

&&

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DDV




000
FXUS63 KMKX 021534
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1034 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO PREVIOUS THINKING WITH RESPECT TO
SVR STORM POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. THOUGH
LOOKS LIKE TIMING MAY BE A BIT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL
WAVE RIDING SEWD FROM EC MN WILL INTERACT WITH SURFACE FRONT
SLICING INTO SRN WI DURG PEAK INSTABILITY. ML CAPES PER SPC MESO
PAGE ALREADY AT 2500 J/KG. SHEAR PARAMETERS...0-6KM AND 0-1 KM ARE
FAVORABLE. AS SURFACE LOW TRACKS SEWD FROM NW WI WILL BE
INTERESTING TO SEE IF WINDS CAN BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AND WEAKEN A
BIT IN VCNTY OF ANY STORMS AS THAT WOULD CERTAINLY ADD TO THE
SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR BETWEEN THE SURFACE AND 850 MILLIBARS.
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE QUITE FAVORABLE AS IS THE DOWNDRAFT CAPE
SO ANY STORMS WILL HAVE SVR WIND AND HAIL POTENTIAL. THE HRRR
MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING TO FEWER CELLS AS COMPARED TO THE
OVERNIGHT RUNS OF THE ARW AND NMM WHICH SHOWED A MORE SOLID LINE.
LATEST NAM-NEST CONTINUES TO SHOW A MORE SOLID LINE MODE AFFECTING
ENTIRE CWA. HIGHEST 250 DIVERGENCE AND 850 CONVERGENCE FAVORS EC
WI INTO LWR MI THOUGH FRONTAL FORCING AND EFFECTS OF MID LEVEL
WAVE WILL IMPACT ENTIRE CWA.

PC

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...MAIN CONCERN WILL BE ON POTENTIAL FOR SVR
CONVECTION CHANCES FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. IN
ADDITION SW SFC WINDS AHEAD OF SEWD ADVANCING COLD FRONT MAY GUST
OVER 30 KNOTS AT TIMES UNTIL GRADIENT SLACKENS AS SFC FRONT DRAWS
CLOSER AND PASSES BY THIS EVENING. SOME MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE WITH
STRONGEST CELLS THIS AFTN AND EVE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR
MONDAY WITH MUCH QUIETER CONDITIONS.

PC

&&

.MARINE...NO CHANGES TO MARINE HEADLINES. GREATEST GALE POTENTIAL
STILL LOOKS TO BE IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF NEARSHORE WATERS WITH
GALE WARNING IN EFFECT STARTING TO 2 PM THERE.

PC

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/

TODAY AND TONIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.

RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET DRIVING CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN
WI EARLY THIS MRNG.  THIS SYNOPTIC FORCING SLIDES EAST INTO NORTHERN
LOWER MI THIS MRNG.  FARTHER SOUTH...LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
CONTINUING BUT ELEVATED CIN LAYER HAS BEEN SUPPRESSING CONVECTION
EXCEPT FOR A FEW SHOWERS.  HOWEVER SPC MESOSCALE ANALYSIS SHOWS
ELEVATED CIN LAYER WEAKENING A BIT WHILE THIS WARM AIR ADVECTION
RELATED TO INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET SPREADS ACROSS SRN WI.  IN
ADDITION...WEAK LOW LEVEL SHORT WAVE NOTED ON WIND PROFILERS MOST
LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO ISOLD CONVECTION ACROSS SRN WI.  HENCE NEED
TO CONTINUE SMALL POPS THIS MRNG.  DEBRIS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION
CLOUDS THIS MRNG SHOULD THIN IN TIME FOR THE AFTERNOON AS 925H TEMPS
WARM TO AROUND 27-28C.  STRONG LOW LEVEL MIXING WILL CARRY THIS WARM
AIR TO SURFACE RESULTING IN AFTERNOON TEMPS PEAKING IN THE UPPER 80S
TO LOWER 90S.  HEAT INDEX READINGS WILL REACH THE 92 TO 97 DEGREE
RANGE THIS AFTN DUE TO THE WARM TEMPS AND 60S DEWPOINTS.

ENOUGH INSOLATION IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON TO RESULT IN WINDY
CONDITIONS WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 35 TO 40 MPH.
MAY REACH WIND ADVISORY SUSTAINED WIND THRESHOLD OF 26KTS OR HIGHER
AT SOME SOUTHERN LOCATIONS FOR AN HOUR...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE
AT THIS POINT TO ISSUE HEADLINE.  ALREADY ISSUED SPS FOCUSING ON
STRONG WINDS THIS AFTN ACROSS SRN CWA AND WILL HIGHLIGHT IN HWO.

SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON UPSTREAM STRONG SFC
COLD FRONT OVER WRN MN SAGGING SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WI
THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVENING.  STRONG MORNING CAPPING INVERSION
SHOULD ALLOW BUILD-UP OF INSTABILITY WITH DEWPOINTS LIKELY TO POOL
ALONG FRONT THIS AFTN.  DEWPTS MAY INCREASE TO AROUND 70.  CAPE
EXPECTD TO INCREASE TO 3 TO 4K J/KG AHEAD OF FRONT.  0-6KM BULK
SHEAR TO INCREASE TO 30 TO 40KTS WITH IMPRESSIVE 1KM SHEAR OF 20 TO
30KTS.  IN ADDITION...MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO RISE EVEN FURTHER TO
AROUND 8C.  SPC STORM SCALE ENSEMBLE OF OPPORTUNITY HAS MOST
MESOSCALE MODELS SHOWING UPDRAFT HELICITY VALUES LIKELY TO BE
GREATER THAN 25 M2/S2 JUST TO THE NORTH OF CWA THIS AFTN.  3 HOUR
PROBABILITY OF UPDRAFT SPEED EXCEEDING 20KTS LIKELY IN NRN CWA THIS
AFTN.  WITH STRONG COLD FRONT SAGGING INTO THE NORTHERN CWA...BEEFED
UP POPS TO LIKELY LATE AFTN IN THE NORTH AND EAST CARRYING OVER INTO
THE EARLY EVE.  OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLY MORNING NRN WI
CONVECTION SHOULD GET NUDGED BACK TO THE NORTH AS WELL.  NOT
EXPECTING DEBRIS CLOUDS THIS AFTN INTO THE EVENING SO THINKING MUCH
OF THE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL BE REALIZED AHEAD OF FRONT.  AGREE
WITH SPC UPGRADE TO ENHANCED THIS AFTN.

CDFNT QUICKLY SWEEPS THRU SRN WI DURING THE EVENING ALLOWING
DRIER...MORE STABLE CONDITIONS TO RAPIDLY RETURN OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

EXPECT DRY WEATHER MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST AND MODEL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DROP TO AROUND
HALF OF AN INCH. SHOULD REMAIN DRY TUESDAY UNDER THE HIGH.

HIGH TEMPS MON/TUE SHOULD BE RIGHT NEAR NORMAL VALUES.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE NORTHEASTWARD
WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING FOR A RETURN OF DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE AREA.
THE GFS IS QUICKEST WITH THE MOISTURE RETURN...BRINGING A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. ECMWF/CANADIAN
SOLUTIONS ARE SLOWER AND DRY WED. FIGURED IT WAS AT LEAST SOME
LOW POPS GIVEN THE GFS.

POPS THEN A LITTLE HIGHER FOR WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS GFS AND
ECMWF BOTH SLIDE A SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE AREA.

SHOULD TURN DRIER FOR FRI/SAT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO
THE AREA.

TEMPS EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND UNDER PERSISTENT
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...ISOLD CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER
THIS MRNG ACROSS SRN WI.  HOWEVER VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE AFTN.  A WINDY DAY IS EXPECTED WITH GUSTS PERHAPS REACHING 35
KTS THIS AFTN PENDING SKY COVER AND AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MIXING.  A
PERIOD OF SCT CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THIS AFTN AND EVENING.  SOME OF
THE CONVECTION MAY PRODUCE STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.  NEED TO
INCLUDE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR REMARK IN KMSN TAF FOR A FEW HOURS
UNTIL WINDS INCREASE.  FARTHER EAST...MORE BORDERLINE LLWS SITUATION
WHILE SFC WINDS REMAIN LIGHTER THIS MRNG.

MARINE...TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD
FRONT AND INSOLATION WILL ALLOW STRONG WIND TO MIX DOWN TO SHORE
SURFACE AND AFFECT NEARSHORE WATERS LATER TODAY.  WIND GUSTS COULD
GET AS HIGH AS 38 KNOTS ACROSS SOUTHERN MARINE ZONES.  HENCE
UPGRADED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SOUTH OF NORTH POINT LIGHT TO GALE
WARNING FOR THE AFTERNOON.  ALSO EXTENDED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
NORTHERN ZONES UNTIL 00Z.  MARINERS NEED TO BE AWARE OF THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS AFFECTING THE NEARSHORE WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND BE READY TO SEEK SAFE HARBOR.


BEACHES...STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT THE BEACHES TODAY.
DUE TO THE OFFSHORE NATURE...WAVE HEIGHTS AT LAKE MICHIGAN BEACHES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOWER...MAINLY BETWEEN 1 AND 3 FEET RESULTING IN
LOW TO MODERATE SWIM RISK CONDITIONS.  SWIMMERS WILL NEED TO BE
CAUTIOUS OF THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TSTORMS AFFECTING THE BEACHES
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE AND BE READY TO SEEK SHELTER QUICKLY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ645-
     646.

     GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR LMZ645-646.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643-644.

&&

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DDV




000
FXUS63 KMKX 020830
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
330 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.TODAY AND TONIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.

RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET DRIVING CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN
WI EARLY THIS MRNG.  THIS SYNOPTIC FORCING SLIDES EAST INTO NORTHERN
LOWER MI THIS MRNG.  FARTHER SOUTH...LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
CONTINUING BUT ELEVATED CIN LAYER HAS BEEN SUPPRESSING CONVECTION
EXCEPT FOR A FEW SHOWERS.  HOWEVER SPC MESOSCALE ANALYSIS SHOWS
ELEVATED CIN LAYER WEAKENING A BIT WHILE THIS WARM AIR ADVECTION
RELATED TO INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET SPREADS ACROSS SRN WI.  IN
ADDITION...WEAK LOW LEVEL SHORT WAVE NOTED ON WIND PROFILERS MOST
LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO ISOLD CONVECTION ACROSS SRN WI.  HENCE NEED
TO CONTINUE SMALL POPS THIS MRNG.  DEBRIS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION
CLOUDS THIS MRNG SHOULD THIN IN TIME FOR THE AFTERNOON AS 925H TEMPS
WARM TO AROUND 27-28C.  STRONG LOW LEVEL MIXING WILL CARRY THIS WARM
AIR TO SURFACE RESULTING IN AFTERNOON TEMPS PEAKING IN THE UPPER 80S
TO LOWER 90S.  HEAT INDEX READINGS WILL REACH THE 92 TO 97 DEGREE
RANGE THIS AFTN DUE TO THE WARM TEMPS AND 60S DEWPOINTS.

ENOUGH INSOLATION IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON TO RESULT IN WINDY
CONDITIONS WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 35 TO 40 MPH.
MAY REACH WIND ADVISORY SUSTAINED WIND THRESHOLD OF 26KTS OR HIGHER
AT SOME SOUTHERN LOCATIONS FOR AN HOUR...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE
AT THIS POINT TO ISSUE HEADLINE.  ALREADY ISSUED SPS FOCUSING ON
STRONG WINDS THIS AFTN ACROSS SRN CWA AND WILL HIGHLIGHT IN HWO.

SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON UPSTREAM STRONG SFC
COLD FRONT OVER WRN MN SAGGING SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WI
THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVENING.  STRONG MORNING CAPPING INVERSION
SHOULD ALLOW BUILD-UP OF INSTABILITY WITH DEWPOINTS LIKELY TO POOL
ALONG FRONT THIS AFTN.  DEWPTS MAY INCREASE TO AROUND 70.  CAPE
EXPECTD TO INCREASE TO 3 TO 4K J/KG AHEAD OF FRONT.  0-6KM BULK
SHEAR TO INCREASE TO 30 TO 40KTS WITH IMPRESSIVE 1KM SHEAR OF 20 TO
30KTS.  IN ADDITION...MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO RISE EVEN FURTHER TO
AROUND 8C.  SPC STORM SCALE ENSEMBLE OF OPPORTUNITY HAS MOST
MESOSCALE MODELS SHOWING UPDRAFT HELICITY VALUES LIKELY TO BE
GREATER THAN 25 M2/S2 JUST TO THE NORTH OF CWA THIS AFTN.  3 HOUR
PROBABILITY OF UPDRAFT SPEED EXCEEDING 20KTS LIKELY IN NRN CWA THIS
AFTN.  WITH STRONG COLD FRONT SAGGING INTO THE NORTHERN CWA...BEEFED
UP POPS TO LIKELY LATE AFTN IN THE NORTH AND EAST CARRYING OVER INTO
THE EARLY EVE.  OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLY MORNING NRN WI
CONVECTION SHOULD GET NUDGED BACK TO THE NORTH AS WELL.  NOT
EXPECTING DEBRIS CLOUDS THIS AFTN INTO THE EVENING SO THINKING MUCH
OF THE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL BE REALIZED AHEAD OF FRONT.  AGREE
WITH SPC UPGRADE TO ENHANCED THIS AFTN.

CDFNT QUICKLY SWEEPS THRU SRN WI DURING THE EVENING ALLOWING
DRIER...MORE STABLE CONDITIONS TO RAPIDLY RETURN OVERNIGHT.

.MONDAY AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

EXPECT DRY WEATHER MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST AND MODEL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DROP TO AROUND
HALF OF AN INCH. SHOULD REMAIN DRY TUESDAY UNDER THE HIGH.

HIGH TEMPS MON/TUE SHOULD BE RIGHT NEAR NORMAL VALUES.

.WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE NORTHEASTWARD
WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING FOR A RETURN OF DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE AREA.
THE GFS IS QUICKEST WITH THE MOISTURE RETURN...BRINGING A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. ECMWF/CANADIAN
SOLUTIONS ARE SLOWER AND DRY WED. FIGURED IT WAS AT LEAST SOME
LOW POPS GIVEN THE GFS.

POPS THEN A LITTLE HIGHER FOR WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS GFS AND
ECMWF BOTH SLIDE A SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE AREA.

SHOULD TURN DRIER FOR FRI/SAT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO
THE AREA.

TEMPS EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND UNDER PERSISTENT
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...ISOLD CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER
THIS MRNG ACROSS SRN WI.  HOWEVER VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE AFTN.  A WINDY DAY IS EXPECTED WITH GUSTS PERHAPS REACHING 35
KTS THIS AFTN PENDING SKY COVER AND AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MIXING.  A
PERIOD OF SCT CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THIS AFTN AND EVENING.  SOME OF
THE CONVECTION MAY PRODUCE STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.  NEED TO
INCLUDE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR REMARK IN KMSN TAF FOR A FEW HOURS
UNTIL WINDS INCREASE.  FARTHER EAST...MORE BORDERLINE LLWS SITUATION
WHILE SFC WINDS REMAIN LIGHTER THIS MRNG.

&&

.MARINE...TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD
FRONT AND INSOLATION WILL ALLOW STRONG WIND TO MIX DOWN TO SHORE
SURFACE AND AFFECT NEARSHORE WATERS LATER TODAY.  WIND GUSTS COULD
GET AS HIGH AS 38 KNOTS ACROSS SOUTHERN MARINE ZONES.  HENCE
UPGRADED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SOUTH OF NORTH POINT LIGHT TO GALE
WARNING FOR THE AFTERNOON.  ALSO EXTENDED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
NORTHERN ZONES UNTIL 00Z.  MARINERS NEED TO BE AWARE OF THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS AFFECTING THE NEARSHORE WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND BE READY TO SEEK SAFE HARBOR.

&&

.BEACHES...STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT THE BEACHES TODAY.
DUE TO THE OFFSHORE NATURE...WAVE HEIGHTS AT LAKE MICHIGAN BEACHES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOWER...MAINLY BETWEEN 1 AND 3 FEET RESULTING IN
LOW TO MODERATE SWIM RISK CONDITIONS.  SWIMMERS WILL NEED TO BE
CAUTIOUS OF THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TSTORMS AFFECTING THE BEACHES
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE AND BE READY TO SEEK SHELTER QUICKLY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 PM CDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR LMZ645-646.

     GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR LMZ645-646.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR LMZ643-644.

&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...MBK
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DDV




000
FXUS63 KMKX 020830
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
330 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.TODAY AND TONIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.

RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET DRIVING CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN
WI EARLY THIS MRNG.  THIS SYNOPTIC FORCING SLIDES EAST INTO NORTHERN
LOWER MI THIS MRNG.  FARTHER SOUTH...LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
CONTINUING BUT ELEVATED CIN LAYER HAS BEEN SUPPRESSING CONVECTION
EXCEPT FOR A FEW SHOWERS.  HOWEVER SPC MESOSCALE ANALYSIS SHOWS
ELEVATED CIN LAYER WEAKENING A BIT WHILE THIS WARM AIR ADVECTION
RELATED TO INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET SPREADS ACROSS SRN WI.  IN
ADDITION...WEAK LOW LEVEL SHORT WAVE NOTED ON WIND PROFILERS MOST
LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO ISOLD CONVECTION ACROSS SRN WI.  HENCE NEED
TO CONTINUE SMALL POPS THIS MRNG.  DEBRIS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION
CLOUDS THIS MRNG SHOULD THIN IN TIME FOR THE AFTERNOON AS 925H TEMPS
WARM TO AROUND 27-28C.  STRONG LOW LEVEL MIXING WILL CARRY THIS WARM
AIR TO SURFACE RESULTING IN AFTERNOON TEMPS PEAKING IN THE UPPER 80S
TO LOWER 90S.  HEAT INDEX READINGS WILL REACH THE 92 TO 97 DEGREE
RANGE THIS AFTN DUE TO THE WARM TEMPS AND 60S DEWPOINTS.

ENOUGH INSOLATION IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON TO RESULT IN WINDY
CONDITIONS WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 35 TO 40 MPH.
MAY REACH WIND ADVISORY SUSTAINED WIND THRESHOLD OF 26KTS OR HIGHER
AT SOME SOUTHERN LOCATIONS FOR AN HOUR...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE
AT THIS POINT TO ISSUE HEADLINE.  ALREADY ISSUED SPS FOCUSING ON
STRONG WINDS THIS AFTN ACROSS SRN CWA AND WILL HIGHLIGHT IN HWO.

SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON UPSTREAM STRONG SFC
COLD FRONT OVER WRN MN SAGGING SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WI
THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVENING.  STRONG MORNING CAPPING INVERSION
SHOULD ALLOW BUILD-UP OF INSTABILITY WITH DEWPOINTS LIKELY TO POOL
ALONG FRONT THIS AFTN.  DEWPTS MAY INCREASE TO AROUND 70.  CAPE
EXPECTD TO INCREASE TO 3 TO 4K J/KG AHEAD OF FRONT.  0-6KM BULK
SHEAR TO INCREASE TO 30 TO 40KTS WITH IMPRESSIVE 1KM SHEAR OF 20 TO
30KTS.  IN ADDITION...MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO RISE EVEN FURTHER TO
AROUND 8C.  SPC STORM SCALE ENSEMBLE OF OPPORTUNITY HAS MOST
MESOSCALE MODELS SHOWING UPDRAFT HELICITY VALUES LIKELY TO BE
GREATER THAN 25 M2/S2 JUST TO THE NORTH OF CWA THIS AFTN.  3 HOUR
PROBABILITY OF UPDRAFT SPEED EXCEEDING 20KTS LIKELY IN NRN CWA THIS
AFTN.  WITH STRONG COLD FRONT SAGGING INTO THE NORTHERN CWA...BEEFED
UP POPS TO LIKELY LATE AFTN IN THE NORTH AND EAST CARRYING OVER INTO
THE EARLY EVE.  OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLY MORNING NRN WI
CONVECTION SHOULD GET NUDGED BACK TO THE NORTH AS WELL.  NOT
EXPECTING DEBRIS CLOUDS THIS AFTN INTO THE EVENING SO THINKING MUCH
OF THE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL BE REALIZED AHEAD OF FRONT.  AGREE
WITH SPC UPGRADE TO ENHANCED THIS AFTN.

CDFNT QUICKLY SWEEPS THRU SRN WI DURING THE EVENING ALLOWING
DRIER...MORE STABLE CONDITIONS TO RAPIDLY RETURN OVERNIGHT.

.MONDAY AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

EXPECT DRY WEATHER MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST AND MODEL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DROP TO AROUND
HALF OF AN INCH. SHOULD REMAIN DRY TUESDAY UNDER THE HIGH.

HIGH TEMPS MON/TUE SHOULD BE RIGHT NEAR NORMAL VALUES.

.WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE NORTHEASTWARD
WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING FOR A RETURN OF DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE AREA.
THE GFS IS QUICKEST WITH THE MOISTURE RETURN...BRINGING A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. ECMWF/CANADIAN
SOLUTIONS ARE SLOWER AND DRY WED. FIGURED IT WAS AT LEAST SOME
LOW POPS GIVEN THE GFS.

POPS THEN A LITTLE HIGHER FOR WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS GFS AND
ECMWF BOTH SLIDE A SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE AREA.

SHOULD TURN DRIER FOR FRI/SAT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO
THE AREA.

TEMPS EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND UNDER PERSISTENT
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...ISOLD CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER
THIS MRNG ACROSS SRN WI.  HOWEVER VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE AFTN.  A WINDY DAY IS EXPECTED WITH GUSTS PERHAPS REACHING 35
KTS THIS AFTN PENDING SKY COVER AND AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MIXING.  A
PERIOD OF SCT CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THIS AFTN AND EVENING.  SOME OF
THE CONVECTION MAY PRODUCE STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.  NEED TO
INCLUDE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR REMARK IN KMSN TAF FOR A FEW HOURS
UNTIL WINDS INCREASE.  FARTHER EAST...MORE BORDERLINE LLWS SITUATION
WHILE SFC WINDS REMAIN LIGHTER THIS MRNG.

&&

.MARINE...TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD
FRONT AND INSOLATION WILL ALLOW STRONG WIND TO MIX DOWN TO SHORE
SURFACE AND AFFECT NEARSHORE WATERS LATER TODAY.  WIND GUSTS COULD
GET AS HIGH AS 38 KNOTS ACROSS SOUTHERN MARINE ZONES.  HENCE
UPGRADED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SOUTH OF NORTH POINT LIGHT TO GALE
WARNING FOR THE AFTERNOON.  ALSO EXTENDED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
NORTHERN ZONES UNTIL 00Z.  MARINERS NEED TO BE AWARE OF THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS AFFECTING THE NEARSHORE WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND BE READY TO SEEK SAFE HARBOR.

&&

.BEACHES...STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT THE BEACHES TODAY.
DUE TO THE OFFSHORE NATURE...WAVE HEIGHTS AT LAKE MICHIGAN BEACHES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOWER...MAINLY BETWEEN 1 AND 3 FEET RESULTING IN
LOW TO MODERATE SWIM RISK CONDITIONS.  SWIMMERS WILL NEED TO BE
CAUTIOUS OF THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TSTORMS AFFECTING THE BEACHES
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE AND BE READY TO SEEK SHELTER QUICKLY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 PM CDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR LMZ645-646.

     GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR LMZ645-646.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR LMZ643-644.

&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...MBK
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DDV





000
FXUS63 KMKX 020336
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1036 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...A LARGE AREA OF INCREASING WARM ADVECTION IS OCCURRING
ACROSS MN AND WI AS THE LLJ INCREASES. SOME MOISTURE TRANSPORT
WITH THAT AS WELL BUT THE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER IS VERY WARM
RESULTING HIGH VALUES OF CIN. MESOSCALE MODELS DO PRODUCE SOME
CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WI LATE TNT INTO SUN AM. THUS LOWERED
POPS OVER SRN WI WITH BEST CHANCES TOWARD CENTRAL WI FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND INTO SUN AM.

FOR LATE SUN AFTERNOON AND EVENING LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS
CENTRAL OR NORTHERN WI AND INTO NRN LOWER MI WITH A FAIRLY STRONG
COLD FRONT TO FOLLOW. THE WIND FIELD WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 TO 40 MPH BY THE MIDDLE TO LATE
AFTERNOON. THE WELL MIXED AND VERY WARM AIRMASS WILL LIKELY DROP
THE DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOWER 60S BY LATE AFTERNOON BUT MLCAPES
MAY STILL BE 2000 J/KG. DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 35-40 KTS AND 0-1KM
HELICITIES OVER 200 M2/S2 WILL SUPPORT A SVR TSTORM THREAT DURING
THIS TIME. AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL RESULT IN 50 METER 500
MB HEIGHT FALLS FROM 18Z TO 06Z PROVIDING UPPER SUPPORT TO FAIRLY
STRONG LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. THUS EXPECTED STRONG TO SVR
TSTORMS FOR THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...ONLY SMALL CHANCES OF TSTORMS FOR THE EARLY
SUN MORNING HOURS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL WI TO SE WI AS WARM...MOIST
ADVECTION INCREASES. THE CHANCES OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY
BUT WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY FOR SE WI SUN EVE WHEN A STRONG COLD
FRONT PASSES. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE THE TSTORMS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015/

SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT - CONFIDENCE...LOW
MAIN FOCUS WILL BE PINNING DOWN CONVECTIVE TRENDS AS THE NIGHT WEARS
ALONG. 850 LLJ BECOMES MORE FAVORABLE AIMING INTO CWA WITH INCREASING
WAA AND MOISTURE ADVECTION. MODELS ARE SHOWING VARYING SOLUTIONS FOR
MCS TRACK. 1000-500 MILLIBAR THICKNESS LINES/MCS MAINTENANCE
COMPOSITE INDEX FROM SPC MESO PAGE FAVOR MORE OF A 00Z ECMWF SOLUTION.
THE 12Z NAM IS THE FURTHEST NORTH WITH PRECIP INTO CNTRL/SRN WI. THE 12Z
ECMWF HAS COME MORE IN LINE WITH OTHER MODELS SHOWING CONVECTION
ARRIVING AFTER 6Z ACROSS THE CWA. GIVEN THE PROGGD ELEVATED
CAPE/CONSENSUS OF LLJ FORCING AND MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL STILL
CARRY HIGH END CHANCE POPS FOR WHOLE CWA BUT WATCHING FOR A
POTENTIAL SE CURVE TO ANY MCS THAT MIGHT TAKE SHAPE THAT COULD LEAVE
PARTS OF SRN WI MORE ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF A SEWD DIVING MCS TRACK
FAVORING NE IA INTO NRN IL. WATCHING AFTERNOON VSBL ANIMATION THINKING
MORE LIKELY SCENARIO IS WE WILL BE SEEING OUR ACTIVITY ORIGINATE FROM
WRN MN INTO ERN ND WHICH WOULD FAVOR SRN WI A BIT MORE. OVERALL MODEL
SOLUTIONS INCLUDING LATEST HRRR FAVOR SOME CONVECTION A BIT LATER
IN THE NIGHT ACRS SRN WI HOWEVER THERE IS SOME LOSS TO THE
ORGANIZATION AND COVERAGE IN THE LATEST HRRR RUN. AND THIS REFLECTED IN
THE LATEST SWODY1 WITH THE REMOVAL OF THE SLIGHT RISK FROM SRN WI.

SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
COULD STILL BE DEALING WITH LINGERING MORNING CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LLJ/500 MILLIBAR SHORTWAVE. THEN WILL HAVE TO
SEE HOW THE MESOSCALE DETAILS PLAY OUT. EVEN THE GFS SOUNDING IS
GENERATED CAPES OVER 2K SUNDAY AFTERNOON. 850 JET IS PROGGD TO
FOCUS MORE TO OUR EAST AND SOUTHEAST AS THE DAY WEARS ON. HOWEVER
SURFACE/850 FRONT WILL STILL BE HANGING BACK TO THE NORTH AND A
WSW LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL REINFORCE MOISTURE INSTABILITY AS THE DAY
WEARS ON. CWASP SHOWING SOLID MID 70S PLUS ON ALL PROGS WITH THE
GFS SHOWING 80 PLUS BY 00Z. SO GIVEN PRONOUNCED LOW LEVEL FORCING
APPROACHING WITH SURFACE/850 FRONT SWODY2 SLIGHT IS WARRANTED WITH
THE GREATEST THREAT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY NIGHT... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT TRACKS FROM
CENTRAL WI DOWN THROUGH SOUTHEAST WI AND NORTHERN IL LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. I WENT WITH LIKELY POPS IN
SOUTHEAST WI SUNDAY EVENING... BUT IT MAY JUST BE A BROKEN LINE.
SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD WIND DOWN QUICKLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS DRY
AIR SETTLES IN BEHIND THE FRONT.

EXPECTING HIGH CAPE AND SHEAR JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT... ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WITH ANY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.
A TORNADO IS A REMOTE POSSIBILITY GIVEN THE LIMITED LOW LEVEL SHEAR.

LONG TERM...

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE GREAT LAKES REGION FOR THE FIRST
PART OF THE WORK WEEK AS AN UPPER LOW REMAINS STATIONED OVER QUEBEC.
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL ALLOW FOR FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS.
TEMPS WILL BE AROUND SEASONAL NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY... THEN
SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE MID 70S WEDNESDAY DUE TO NORTHEAST BREEZE OFF
THE LAKE.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

MODELS TRY TO GENERATE AN MCS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THAT TRACKS
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MIDWEST THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY ANOTHER ONE INTO
FRIDAY. THE GFS IS MAINTAINING PRECIP CHANCES IN SOUTHERN WI WITH
THIS SYSTEM AND APPEARS TO HAVE SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES...
WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF SHIFTED THE MAIN CHANCES FARTHER SOUTH.

EXPECT DRY HIGH PRESSURE TO SETTLE BACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND KEEP PRECIP CHANCES MINIMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE 70S.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...VFR CONDITIONS AT LEAST INTO THIS EVENING.
MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ARRIVES LATER TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING AS MORE PRONOUNCED LLJ AIMS INTO SRN WI. STILL SOME
TRACK UNCERTAINTY ON MCS BUT OVERALL MOIST ADVECTION WITH 850 LLJ
AND SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY WARRANTS THE CHANCE OF STORMS LATER TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. POCKETS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH ANY STRONGER
STORMS. MESOSCALE DETAILS AFTER OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING STORMS WILL
DICTATE STORM EVOLUTION/SEVERITY ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS
SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT INTERACT WITH POTENTIALLY VERY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS. IN ADDITION WITH LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENING OVERNIGHT SOME
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS POSSIBLE.

MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HOISTED FOR SUNDAY AS PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP AHEAD OF APPROACHING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. SW WINDS SHOULD RAMP UP PRETTY QUICK IN THE MORNING AND GET
RATHER GUSTY. COLD FRONT MAY SPAWN SOME STRONG TSTORMS LATE
AFTN/ERLY EVE.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GEHRING
TONIGHT/SUNDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...COLLAR
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MRC





000
FXUS63 KMKX 020336
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1036 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...A LARGE AREA OF INCREASING WARM ADVECTION IS OCCURRING
ACROSS MN AND WI AS THE LLJ INCREASES. SOME MOISTURE TRANSPORT
WITH THAT AS WELL BUT THE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER IS VERY WARM
RESULTING HIGH VALUES OF CIN. MESOSCALE MODELS DO PRODUCE SOME
CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WI LATE TNT INTO SUN AM. THUS LOWERED
POPS OVER SRN WI WITH BEST CHANCES TOWARD CENTRAL WI FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND INTO SUN AM.

FOR LATE SUN AFTERNOON AND EVENING LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS
CENTRAL OR NORTHERN WI AND INTO NRN LOWER MI WITH A FAIRLY STRONG
COLD FRONT TO FOLLOW. THE WIND FIELD WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 TO 40 MPH BY THE MIDDLE TO LATE
AFTERNOON. THE WELL MIXED AND VERY WARM AIRMASS WILL LIKELY DROP
THE DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOWER 60S BY LATE AFTERNOON BUT MLCAPES
MAY STILL BE 2000 J/KG. DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 35-40 KTS AND 0-1KM
HELICITIES OVER 200 M2/S2 WILL SUPPORT A SVR TSTORM THREAT DURING
THIS TIME. AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL RESULT IN 50 METER 500
MB HEIGHT FALLS FROM 18Z TO 06Z PROVIDING UPPER SUPPORT TO FAIRLY
STRONG LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. THUS EXPECTED STRONG TO SVR
TSTORMS FOR THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...ONLY SMALL CHANCES OF TSTORMS FOR THE EARLY
SUN MORNING HOURS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL WI TO SE WI AS WARM...MOIST
ADVECTION INCREASES. THE CHANCES OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY
BUT WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY FOR SE WI SUN EVE WHEN A STRONG COLD
FRONT PASSES. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE THE TSTORMS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015/

SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT - CONFIDENCE...LOW
MAIN FOCUS WILL BE PINNING DOWN CONVECTIVE TRENDS AS THE NIGHT WEARS
ALONG. 850 LLJ BECOMES MORE FAVORABLE AIMING INTO CWA WITH INCREASING
WAA AND MOISTURE ADVECTION. MODELS ARE SHOWING VARYING SOLUTIONS FOR
MCS TRACK. 1000-500 MILLIBAR THICKNESS LINES/MCS MAINTENANCE
COMPOSITE INDEX FROM SPC MESO PAGE FAVOR MORE OF A 00Z ECMWF SOLUTION.
THE 12Z NAM IS THE FURTHEST NORTH WITH PRECIP INTO CNTRL/SRN WI. THE 12Z
ECMWF HAS COME MORE IN LINE WITH OTHER MODELS SHOWING CONVECTION
ARRIVING AFTER 6Z ACROSS THE CWA. GIVEN THE PROGGD ELEVATED
CAPE/CONSENSUS OF LLJ FORCING AND MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL STILL
CARRY HIGH END CHANCE POPS FOR WHOLE CWA BUT WATCHING FOR A
POTENTIAL SE CURVE TO ANY MCS THAT MIGHT TAKE SHAPE THAT COULD LEAVE
PARTS OF SRN WI MORE ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF A SEWD DIVING MCS TRACK
FAVORING NE IA INTO NRN IL. WATCHING AFTERNOON VSBL ANIMATION THINKING
MORE LIKELY SCENARIO IS WE WILL BE SEEING OUR ACTIVITY ORIGINATE FROM
WRN MN INTO ERN ND WHICH WOULD FAVOR SRN WI A BIT MORE. OVERALL MODEL
SOLUTIONS INCLUDING LATEST HRRR FAVOR SOME CONVECTION A BIT LATER
IN THE NIGHT ACRS SRN WI HOWEVER THERE IS SOME LOSS TO THE
ORGANIZATION AND COVERAGE IN THE LATEST HRRR RUN. AND THIS REFLECTED IN
THE LATEST SWODY1 WITH THE REMOVAL OF THE SLIGHT RISK FROM SRN WI.

SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
COULD STILL BE DEALING WITH LINGERING MORNING CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LLJ/500 MILLIBAR SHORTWAVE. THEN WILL HAVE TO
SEE HOW THE MESOSCALE DETAILS PLAY OUT. EVEN THE GFS SOUNDING IS
GENERATED CAPES OVER 2K SUNDAY AFTERNOON. 850 JET IS PROGGD TO
FOCUS MORE TO OUR EAST AND SOUTHEAST AS THE DAY WEARS ON. HOWEVER
SURFACE/850 FRONT WILL STILL BE HANGING BACK TO THE NORTH AND A
WSW LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL REINFORCE MOISTURE INSTABILITY AS THE DAY
WEARS ON. CWASP SHOWING SOLID MID 70S PLUS ON ALL PROGS WITH THE
GFS SHOWING 80 PLUS BY 00Z. SO GIVEN PRONOUNCED LOW LEVEL FORCING
APPROACHING WITH SURFACE/850 FRONT SWODY2 SLIGHT IS WARRANTED WITH
THE GREATEST THREAT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY NIGHT... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT TRACKS FROM
CENTRAL WI DOWN THROUGH SOUTHEAST WI AND NORTHERN IL LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. I WENT WITH LIKELY POPS IN
SOUTHEAST WI SUNDAY EVENING... BUT IT MAY JUST BE A BROKEN LINE.
SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD WIND DOWN QUICKLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS DRY
AIR SETTLES IN BEHIND THE FRONT.

EXPECTING HIGH CAPE AND SHEAR JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT... ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WITH ANY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.
A TORNADO IS A REMOTE POSSIBILITY GIVEN THE LIMITED LOW LEVEL SHEAR.

LONG TERM...

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE GREAT LAKES REGION FOR THE FIRST
PART OF THE WORK WEEK AS AN UPPER LOW REMAINS STATIONED OVER QUEBEC.
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL ALLOW FOR FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS.
TEMPS WILL BE AROUND SEASONAL NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY... THEN
SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE MID 70S WEDNESDAY DUE TO NORTHEAST BREEZE OFF
THE LAKE.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

MODELS TRY TO GENERATE AN MCS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THAT TRACKS
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MIDWEST THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY ANOTHER ONE INTO
FRIDAY. THE GFS IS MAINTAINING PRECIP CHANCES IN SOUTHERN WI WITH
THIS SYSTEM AND APPEARS TO HAVE SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES...
WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF SHIFTED THE MAIN CHANCES FARTHER SOUTH.

EXPECT DRY HIGH PRESSURE TO SETTLE BACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND KEEP PRECIP CHANCES MINIMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE 70S.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...VFR CONDITIONS AT LEAST INTO THIS EVENING.
MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ARRIVES LATER TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING AS MORE PRONOUNCED LLJ AIMS INTO SRN WI. STILL SOME
TRACK UNCERTAINTY ON MCS BUT OVERALL MOIST ADVECTION WITH 850 LLJ
AND SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY WARRANTS THE CHANCE OF STORMS LATER TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. POCKETS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH ANY STRONGER
STORMS. MESOSCALE DETAILS AFTER OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING STORMS WILL
DICTATE STORM EVOLUTION/SEVERITY ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS
SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT INTERACT WITH POTENTIALLY VERY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS. IN ADDITION WITH LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENING OVERNIGHT SOME
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS POSSIBLE.

MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HOISTED FOR SUNDAY AS PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP AHEAD OF APPROACHING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. SW WINDS SHOULD RAMP UP PRETTY QUICK IN THE MORNING AND GET
RATHER GUSTY. COLD FRONT MAY SPAWN SOME STRONG TSTORMS LATE
AFTN/ERLY EVE.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GEHRING
TONIGHT/SUNDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...COLLAR
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MRC





000
FXUS63 KMKX 020336
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1036 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...A LARGE AREA OF INCREASING WARM ADVECTION IS OCCURRING
ACROSS MN AND WI AS THE LLJ INCREASES. SOME MOISTURE TRANSPORT
WITH THAT AS WELL BUT THE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER IS VERY WARM
RESULTING HIGH VALUES OF CIN. MESOSCALE MODELS DO PRODUCE SOME
CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WI LATE TNT INTO SUN AM. THUS LOWERED
POPS OVER SRN WI WITH BEST CHANCES TOWARD CENTRAL WI FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND INTO SUN AM.

FOR LATE SUN AFTERNOON AND EVENING LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS
CENTRAL OR NORTHERN WI AND INTO NRN LOWER MI WITH A FAIRLY STRONG
COLD FRONT TO FOLLOW. THE WIND FIELD WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 TO 40 MPH BY THE MIDDLE TO LATE
AFTERNOON. THE WELL MIXED AND VERY WARM AIRMASS WILL LIKELY DROP
THE DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOWER 60S BY LATE AFTERNOON BUT MLCAPES
MAY STILL BE 2000 J/KG. DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 35-40 KTS AND 0-1KM
HELICITIES OVER 200 M2/S2 WILL SUPPORT A SVR TSTORM THREAT DURING
THIS TIME. AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL RESULT IN 50 METER 500
MB HEIGHT FALLS FROM 18Z TO 06Z PROVIDING UPPER SUPPORT TO FAIRLY
STRONG LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. THUS EXPECTED STRONG TO SVR
TSTORMS FOR THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...ONLY SMALL CHANCES OF TSTORMS FOR THE EARLY
SUN MORNING HOURS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL WI TO SE WI AS WARM...MOIST
ADVECTION INCREASES. THE CHANCES OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY
BUT WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY FOR SE WI SUN EVE WHEN A STRONG COLD
FRONT PASSES. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE THE TSTORMS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015/

SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT - CONFIDENCE...LOW
MAIN FOCUS WILL BE PINNING DOWN CONVECTIVE TRENDS AS THE NIGHT WEARS
ALONG. 850 LLJ BECOMES MORE FAVORABLE AIMING INTO CWA WITH INCREASING
WAA AND MOISTURE ADVECTION. MODELS ARE SHOWING VARYING SOLUTIONS FOR
MCS TRACK. 1000-500 MILLIBAR THICKNESS LINES/MCS MAINTENANCE
COMPOSITE INDEX FROM SPC MESO PAGE FAVOR MORE OF A 00Z ECMWF SOLUTION.
THE 12Z NAM IS THE FURTHEST NORTH WITH PRECIP INTO CNTRL/SRN WI. THE 12Z
ECMWF HAS COME MORE IN LINE WITH OTHER MODELS SHOWING CONVECTION
ARRIVING AFTER 6Z ACROSS THE CWA. GIVEN THE PROGGD ELEVATED
CAPE/CONSENSUS OF LLJ FORCING AND MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL STILL
CARRY HIGH END CHANCE POPS FOR WHOLE CWA BUT WATCHING FOR A
POTENTIAL SE CURVE TO ANY MCS THAT MIGHT TAKE SHAPE THAT COULD LEAVE
PARTS OF SRN WI MORE ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF A SEWD DIVING MCS TRACK
FAVORING NE IA INTO NRN IL. WATCHING AFTERNOON VSBL ANIMATION THINKING
MORE LIKELY SCENARIO IS WE WILL BE SEEING OUR ACTIVITY ORIGINATE FROM
WRN MN INTO ERN ND WHICH WOULD FAVOR SRN WI A BIT MORE. OVERALL MODEL
SOLUTIONS INCLUDING LATEST HRRR FAVOR SOME CONVECTION A BIT LATER
IN THE NIGHT ACRS SRN WI HOWEVER THERE IS SOME LOSS TO THE
ORGANIZATION AND COVERAGE IN THE LATEST HRRR RUN. AND THIS REFLECTED IN
THE LATEST SWODY1 WITH THE REMOVAL OF THE SLIGHT RISK FROM SRN WI.

SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
COULD STILL BE DEALING WITH LINGERING MORNING CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LLJ/500 MILLIBAR SHORTWAVE. THEN WILL HAVE TO
SEE HOW THE MESOSCALE DETAILS PLAY OUT. EVEN THE GFS SOUNDING IS
GENERATED CAPES OVER 2K SUNDAY AFTERNOON. 850 JET IS PROGGD TO
FOCUS MORE TO OUR EAST AND SOUTHEAST AS THE DAY WEARS ON. HOWEVER
SURFACE/850 FRONT WILL STILL BE HANGING BACK TO THE NORTH AND A
WSW LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL REINFORCE MOISTURE INSTABILITY AS THE DAY
WEARS ON. CWASP SHOWING SOLID MID 70S PLUS ON ALL PROGS WITH THE
GFS SHOWING 80 PLUS BY 00Z. SO GIVEN PRONOUNCED LOW LEVEL FORCING
APPROACHING WITH SURFACE/850 FRONT SWODY2 SLIGHT IS WARRANTED WITH
THE GREATEST THREAT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY NIGHT... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT TRACKS FROM
CENTRAL WI DOWN THROUGH SOUTHEAST WI AND NORTHERN IL LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. I WENT WITH LIKELY POPS IN
SOUTHEAST WI SUNDAY EVENING... BUT IT MAY JUST BE A BROKEN LINE.
SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD WIND DOWN QUICKLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS DRY
AIR SETTLES IN BEHIND THE FRONT.

EXPECTING HIGH CAPE AND SHEAR JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT... ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WITH ANY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.
A TORNADO IS A REMOTE POSSIBILITY GIVEN THE LIMITED LOW LEVEL SHEAR.

LONG TERM...

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE GREAT LAKES REGION FOR THE FIRST
PART OF THE WORK WEEK AS AN UPPER LOW REMAINS STATIONED OVER QUEBEC.
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL ALLOW FOR FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS.
TEMPS WILL BE AROUND SEASONAL NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY... THEN
SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE MID 70S WEDNESDAY DUE TO NORTHEAST BREEZE OFF
THE LAKE.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

MODELS TRY TO GENERATE AN MCS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THAT TRACKS
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MIDWEST THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY ANOTHER ONE INTO
FRIDAY. THE GFS IS MAINTAINING PRECIP CHANCES IN SOUTHERN WI WITH
THIS SYSTEM AND APPEARS TO HAVE SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES...
WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF SHIFTED THE MAIN CHANCES FARTHER SOUTH.

EXPECT DRY HIGH PRESSURE TO SETTLE BACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND KEEP PRECIP CHANCES MINIMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE 70S.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...VFR CONDITIONS AT LEAST INTO THIS EVENING.
MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ARRIVES LATER TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING AS MORE PRONOUNCED LLJ AIMS INTO SRN WI. STILL SOME
TRACK UNCERTAINTY ON MCS BUT OVERALL MOIST ADVECTION WITH 850 LLJ
AND SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY WARRANTS THE CHANCE OF STORMS LATER TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. POCKETS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH ANY STRONGER
STORMS. MESOSCALE DETAILS AFTER OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING STORMS WILL
DICTATE STORM EVOLUTION/SEVERITY ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS
SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT INTERACT WITH POTENTIALLY VERY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS. IN ADDITION WITH LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENING OVERNIGHT SOME
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS POSSIBLE.

MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HOISTED FOR SUNDAY AS PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP AHEAD OF APPROACHING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. SW WINDS SHOULD RAMP UP PRETTY QUICK IN THE MORNING AND GET
RATHER GUSTY. COLD FRONT MAY SPAWN SOME STRONG TSTORMS LATE
AFTN/ERLY EVE.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GEHRING
TONIGHT/SUNDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...COLLAR
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MRC




000
FXUS63 KMKX 020336
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1036 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...A LARGE AREA OF INCREASING WARM ADVECTION IS OCCURRING
ACROSS MN AND WI AS THE LLJ INCREASES. SOME MOISTURE TRANSPORT
WITH THAT AS WELL BUT THE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER IS VERY WARM
RESULTING HIGH VALUES OF CIN. MESOSCALE MODELS DO PRODUCE SOME
CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WI LATE TNT INTO SUN AM. THUS LOWERED
POPS OVER SRN WI WITH BEST CHANCES TOWARD CENTRAL WI FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND INTO SUN AM.

FOR LATE SUN AFTERNOON AND EVENING LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS
CENTRAL OR NORTHERN WI AND INTO NRN LOWER MI WITH A FAIRLY STRONG
COLD FRONT TO FOLLOW. THE WIND FIELD WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 TO 40 MPH BY THE MIDDLE TO LATE
AFTERNOON. THE WELL MIXED AND VERY WARM AIRMASS WILL LIKELY DROP
THE DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOWER 60S BY LATE AFTERNOON BUT MLCAPES
MAY STILL BE 2000 J/KG. DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 35-40 KTS AND 0-1KM
HELICITIES OVER 200 M2/S2 WILL SUPPORT A SVR TSTORM THREAT DURING
THIS TIME. AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL RESULT IN 50 METER 500
MB HEIGHT FALLS FROM 18Z TO 06Z PROVIDING UPPER SUPPORT TO FAIRLY
STRONG LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. THUS EXPECTED STRONG TO SVR
TSTORMS FOR THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...ONLY SMALL CHANCES OF TSTORMS FOR THE EARLY
SUN MORNING HOURS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL WI TO SE WI AS WARM...MOIST
ADVECTION INCREASES. THE CHANCES OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY
BUT WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY FOR SE WI SUN EVE WHEN A STRONG COLD
FRONT PASSES. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE THE TSTORMS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015/

SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT - CONFIDENCE...LOW
MAIN FOCUS WILL BE PINNING DOWN CONVECTIVE TRENDS AS THE NIGHT WEARS
ALONG. 850 LLJ BECOMES MORE FAVORABLE AIMING INTO CWA WITH INCREASING
WAA AND MOISTURE ADVECTION. MODELS ARE SHOWING VARYING SOLUTIONS FOR
MCS TRACK. 1000-500 MILLIBAR THICKNESS LINES/MCS MAINTENANCE
COMPOSITE INDEX FROM SPC MESO PAGE FAVOR MORE OF A 00Z ECMWF SOLUTION.
THE 12Z NAM IS THE FURTHEST NORTH WITH PRECIP INTO CNTRL/SRN WI. THE 12Z
ECMWF HAS COME MORE IN LINE WITH OTHER MODELS SHOWING CONVECTION
ARRIVING AFTER 6Z ACROSS THE CWA. GIVEN THE PROGGD ELEVATED
CAPE/CONSENSUS OF LLJ FORCING AND MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL STILL
CARRY HIGH END CHANCE POPS FOR WHOLE CWA BUT WATCHING FOR A
POTENTIAL SE CURVE TO ANY MCS THAT MIGHT TAKE SHAPE THAT COULD LEAVE
PARTS OF SRN WI MORE ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF A SEWD DIVING MCS TRACK
FAVORING NE IA INTO NRN IL. WATCHING AFTERNOON VSBL ANIMATION THINKING
MORE LIKELY SCENARIO IS WE WILL BE SEEING OUR ACTIVITY ORIGINATE FROM
WRN MN INTO ERN ND WHICH WOULD FAVOR SRN WI A BIT MORE. OVERALL MODEL
SOLUTIONS INCLUDING LATEST HRRR FAVOR SOME CONVECTION A BIT LATER
IN THE NIGHT ACRS SRN WI HOWEVER THERE IS SOME LOSS TO THE
ORGANIZATION AND COVERAGE IN THE LATEST HRRR RUN. AND THIS REFLECTED IN
THE LATEST SWODY1 WITH THE REMOVAL OF THE SLIGHT RISK FROM SRN WI.

SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
COULD STILL BE DEALING WITH LINGERING MORNING CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LLJ/500 MILLIBAR SHORTWAVE. THEN WILL HAVE TO
SEE HOW THE MESOSCALE DETAILS PLAY OUT. EVEN THE GFS SOUNDING IS
GENERATED CAPES OVER 2K SUNDAY AFTERNOON. 850 JET IS PROGGD TO
FOCUS MORE TO OUR EAST AND SOUTHEAST AS THE DAY WEARS ON. HOWEVER
SURFACE/850 FRONT WILL STILL BE HANGING BACK TO THE NORTH AND A
WSW LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL REINFORCE MOISTURE INSTABILITY AS THE DAY
WEARS ON. CWASP SHOWING SOLID MID 70S PLUS ON ALL PROGS WITH THE
GFS SHOWING 80 PLUS BY 00Z. SO GIVEN PRONOUNCED LOW LEVEL FORCING
APPROACHING WITH SURFACE/850 FRONT SWODY2 SLIGHT IS WARRANTED WITH
THE GREATEST THREAT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY NIGHT... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT TRACKS FROM
CENTRAL WI DOWN THROUGH SOUTHEAST WI AND NORTHERN IL LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. I WENT WITH LIKELY POPS IN
SOUTHEAST WI SUNDAY EVENING... BUT IT MAY JUST BE A BROKEN LINE.
SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD WIND DOWN QUICKLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS DRY
AIR SETTLES IN BEHIND THE FRONT.

EXPECTING HIGH CAPE AND SHEAR JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT... ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WITH ANY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.
A TORNADO IS A REMOTE POSSIBILITY GIVEN THE LIMITED LOW LEVEL SHEAR.

LONG TERM...

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE GREAT LAKES REGION FOR THE FIRST
PART OF THE WORK WEEK AS AN UPPER LOW REMAINS STATIONED OVER QUEBEC.
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL ALLOW FOR FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS.
TEMPS WILL BE AROUND SEASONAL NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY... THEN
SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE MID 70S WEDNESDAY DUE TO NORTHEAST BREEZE OFF
THE LAKE.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

MODELS TRY TO GENERATE AN MCS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THAT TRACKS
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MIDWEST THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY ANOTHER ONE INTO
FRIDAY. THE GFS IS MAINTAINING PRECIP CHANCES IN SOUTHERN WI WITH
THIS SYSTEM AND APPEARS TO HAVE SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES...
WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF SHIFTED THE MAIN CHANCES FARTHER SOUTH.

EXPECT DRY HIGH PRESSURE TO SETTLE BACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND KEEP PRECIP CHANCES MINIMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE 70S.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...VFR CONDITIONS AT LEAST INTO THIS EVENING.
MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ARRIVES LATER TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING AS MORE PRONOUNCED LLJ AIMS INTO SRN WI. STILL SOME
TRACK UNCERTAINTY ON MCS BUT OVERALL MOIST ADVECTION WITH 850 LLJ
AND SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY WARRANTS THE CHANCE OF STORMS LATER TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. POCKETS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH ANY STRONGER
STORMS. MESOSCALE DETAILS AFTER OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING STORMS WILL
DICTATE STORM EVOLUTION/SEVERITY ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS
SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT INTERACT WITH POTENTIALLY VERY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS. IN ADDITION WITH LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENING OVERNIGHT SOME
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS POSSIBLE.

MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HOISTED FOR SUNDAY AS PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP AHEAD OF APPROACHING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. SW WINDS SHOULD RAMP UP PRETTY QUICK IN THE MORNING AND GET
RATHER GUSTY. COLD FRONT MAY SPAWN SOME STRONG TSTORMS LATE
AFTN/ERLY EVE.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GEHRING
TONIGHT/SUNDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...COLLAR
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MRC




000
FXUS63 KMKX 012023
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
323 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT - CONFIDENCE...LOW
MAIN FOCUS WILL BE PINNING DOWN CONVECTIVE TRENDS AS THE NIGHT WEARS
ALONG. 850 LLJ BECOMES MORE FAVORABLE AIMING INTO CWA WITH INCREASING
WAA AND MOISTURE ADVECTION. MODELS ARE SHOWING VARYING SOLUTIONS FOR
MCS TRACK. 1000-500 MILLIBAR THICKNESS LINES/MCS MAINTENANCE
COMPOSITE INDEX FROM SPC MESO PAGE FAVOR MORE OF A 00Z ECMWF SOLUTION.
THE 12Z NAM IS THE FURTHEST NORTH WITH PRECIP INTO CNTRL/SRN WI. THE 12Z
ECMWF HAS COME MORE IN LINE WITH OTHER MODELS SHOWING CONVECTION
ARRIVING AFTER 6Z ACROSS THE CWA. GIVEN THE PROGGD ELEVATED
CAPE/CONSENSUS OF LLJ FORCING AND MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL STILL
CARRY HIGH END CHANCE POPS FOR WHOLE CWA BUT WATCHING FOR A
POTENTIAL SE CURVE TO ANY MCS THAT MIGHT TAKE SHAPE THAT COULD LEAVE
PARTS OF SRN WI MORE ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF A SEWD DIVING MCS TRACK
FAVORING NE IA INTO NRN IL. WATCHING AFTERNOON VSBL ANIMATION THINKING
MORE LIKELY SCENARIO IS WE WILL BE SEEING OUR ACTIVITY ORIGINATE FROM
WRN MN INTO ERN ND WHICH WOULD FAVOR SRN WI A BIT MORE. OVERALL MODEL
SOLUTIONS INCLUDING LATEST HRRR FAVOR SOME CONVECTION A BIT LATER
IN THE NIGHT ACRS SRN WI HOWEVER THERE IS SOME LOSS TO THE
ORGANIZATION AND COVERAGE IN THE LATEST HRRR RUN. AND THIS REFLECTED IN
THE LATEST SWODY1 WITH THE REMOVAL OF THE SLIGHT RISK FROM SRN WI.

SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
COULD STILL BE DEALING WITH LINGERING MORNING CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LLJ/500 MILLIBAR SHORTWAVE. THEN WILL HAVE TO
SEE HOW THE MESOSCALE DETAILS PLAY OUT. EVEN THE GFS SOUNDING IS
GENERATED CAPES OVER 2K SUNDAY AFTERNOON. 850 JET IS PROGGD TO
FOCUS MORE TO OUR EAST AND SOUTHEAST AS THE DAY WEARS ON. HOWEVER
SURFACE/850 FRONT WILL STILL BE HANGING BACK TO THE NORTH AND A
WSW LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL REINFORCE MOISTURE INSTABILITY AS THE DAY
WEARS ON. CWASP SHOWING SOLID MID 70S PLUS ON ALL PROGS WITH THE
GFS SHOWING 80 PLUS BY 00Z. SO GIVEN PRONOUNCED LOW LEVEL FORCING
APPROACHING WITH SURFACE/850 FRONT SWODY2 SLIGHT IS WARRANTED WITH
THE GREATEST THREAT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY NIGHT... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT TRACKS FROM
CENTRAL WI DOWN THROUGH SOUTHEAST WI AND NORTHERN IL LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. I WENT WITH LIKELY POPS IN
SOUTHEAST WI SUNDAY EVENING... BUT IT MAY JUST BE A BROKEN LINE.
SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD WIND DOWN QUICKLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS DRY
AIR SETTLES IN BEHIND THE FRONT.

EXPECTING HIGH CAPE AND SHEAR JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT... ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WITH ANY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.
A TORNADO IS A REMOTE POSSIBILITY GIVEN THE LIMITED LOW LEVEL SHEAR.

.LONG TERM...

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE GREAT LAKES REGION FOR THE FIRST
PART OF THE WORK WEEK AS AN UPPER LOW REMAINS STATIONED OVER QUEBEC.
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL ALLOW FOR FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS.
TEMPS WILL BE AROUND SEASONAL NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY... THEN
SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE MID 70S WEDNESDAY DUE TO NORTHEAST BREEZE OFF
THE LAKE.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

MODELS TRY TO GENERATE AN MCS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THAT TRACKS
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MIDWEST THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY ANOTHER ONE INTO
FRIDAY. THE GFS IS MAINTAINING PRECIP CHANCES IN SOUTHERN WI WITH
THIS SYSTEM AND APPEARS TO HAVE SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES...
WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF SHIFTED THE MAIN CHANCES FARTHER SOUTH.

EXPECT DRY HIGH PRESSURE TO SETTLE BACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND KEEP PRECIP CHANCES MINIMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...VFR CONDITIONS AT LEAST INTO THIS EVENING.
MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ARRIVES LATER TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING AS MORE PRONOUNCED LLJ AIMS INTO SRN WI. STILL SOME
TRACK UNCERTAINTY ON MCS BUT OVERALL MOIST ADVECTION WITH 850 LLJ
AND SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY WARRANTS THE CHANCE OF STORMS LATER TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. POCKETS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH ANY STRONGER
STORMS. MESOSCALE DETAILS AFTER OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING STORMS WILL
DICTATE STORM EVOLUTION/SEVERITY ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS
SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT INTERACT WITH POTENTIALLY VERY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS. IN ADDITION WITH LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENING OVERNIGHT SOME
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HOISTED FOR SUNDAY AS PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP AHEAD OF APPROACHING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. SW WINDS SHOULD RAMP UP PRETTY QUICK IN THE MORNING AND GET
RATHER GUSTY. COLD FRONT MAY SPAWN SOME STRONG TSTORMS LATE
AFTN/ERLY EVE.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

TONIGHT/SUNDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...COLLAR
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MRC





000
FXUS63 KMKX 012023
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
323 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT - CONFIDENCE...LOW
MAIN FOCUS WILL BE PINNING DOWN CONVECTIVE TRENDS AS THE NIGHT WEARS
ALONG. 850 LLJ BECOMES MORE FAVORABLE AIMING INTO CWA WITH INCREASING
WAA AND MOISTURE ADVECTION. MODELS ARE SHOWING VARYING SOLUTIONS FOR
MCS TRACK. 1000-500 MILLIBAR THICKNESS LINES/MCS MAINTENANCE
COMPOSITE INDEX FROM SPC MESO PAGE FAVOR MORE OF A 00Z ECMWF SOLUTION.
THE 12Z NAM IS THE FURTHEST NORTH WITH PRECIP INTO CNTRL/SRN WI. THE 12Z
ECMWF HAS COME MORE IN LINE WITH OTHER MODELS SHOWING CONVECTION
ARRIVING AFTER 6Z ACROSS THE CWA. GIVEN THE PROGGD ELEVATED
CAPE/CONSENSUS OF LLJ FORCING AND MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL STILL
CARRY HIGH END CHANCE POPS FOR WHOLE CWA BUT WATCHING FOR A
POTENTIAL SE CURVE TO ANY MCS THAT MIGHT TAKE SHAPE THAT COULD LEAVE
PARTS OF SRN WI MORE ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF A SEWD DIVING MCS TRACK
FAVORING NE IA INTO NRN IL. WATCHING AFTERNOON VSBL ANIMATION THINKING
MORE LIKELY SCENARIO IS WE WILL BE SEEING OUR ACTIVITY ORIGINATE FROM
WRN MN INTO ERN ND WHICH WOULD FAVOR SRN WI A BIT MORE. OVERALL MODEL
SOLUTIONS INCLUDING LATEST HRRR FAVOR SOME CONVECTION A BIT LATER
IN THE NIGHT ACRS SRN WI HOWEVER THERE IS SOME LOSS TO THE
ORGANIZATION AND COVERAGE IN THE LATEST HRRR RUN. AND THIS REFLECTED IN
THE LATEST SWODY1 WITH THE REMOVAL OF THE SLIGHT RISK FROM SRN WI.

SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
COULD STILL BE DEALING WITH LINGERING MORNING CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LLJ/500 MILLIBAR SHORTWAVE. THEN WILL HAVE TO
SEE HOW THE MESOSCALE DETAILS PLAY OUT. EVEN THE GFS SOUNDING IS
GENERATED CAPES OVER 2K SUNDAY AFTERNOON. 850 JET IS PROGGD TO
FOCUS MORE TO OUR EAST AND SOUTHEAST AS THE DAY WEARS ON. HOWEVER
SURFACE/850 FRONT WILL STILL BE HANGING BACK TO THE NORTH AND A
WSW LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL REINFORCE MOISTURE INSTABILITY AS THE DAY
WEARS ON. CWASP SHOWING SOLID MID 70S PLUS ON ALL PROGS WITH THE
GFS SHOWING 80 PLUS BY 00Z. SO GIVEN PRONOUNCED LOW LEVEL FORCING
APPROACHING WITH SURFACE/850 FRONT SWODY2 SLIGHT IS WARRANTED WITH
THE GREATEST THREAT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY NIGHT... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT TRACKS FROM
CENTRAL WI DOWN THROUGH SOUTHEAST WI AND NORTHERN IL LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. I WENT WITH LIKELY POPS IN
SOUTHEAST WI SUNDAY EVENING... BUT IT MAY JUST BE A BROKEN LINE.
SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD WIND DOWN QUICKLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS DRY
AIR SETTLES IN BEHIND THE FRONT.

EXPECTING HIGH CAPE AND SHEAR JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT... ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WITH ANY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.
A TORNADO IS A REMOTE POSSIBILITY GIVEN THE LIMITED LOW LEVEL SHEAR.

.LONG TERM...

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE GREAT LAKES REGION FOR THE FIRST
PART OF THE WORK WEEK AS AN UPPER LOW REMAINS STATIONED OVER QUEBEC.
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL ALLOW FOR FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS.
TEMPS WILL BE AROUND SEASONAL NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY... THEN
SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE MID 70S WEDNESDAY DUE TO NORTHEAST BREEZE OFF
THE LAKE.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

MODELS TRY TO GENERATE AN MCS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THAT TRACKS
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MIDWEST THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY ANOTHER ONE INTO
FRIDAY. THE GFS IS MAINTAINING PRECIP CHANCES IN SOUTHERN WI WITH
THIS SYSTEM AND APPEARS TO HAVE SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES...
WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF SHIFTED THE MAIN CHANCES FARTHER SOUTH.

EXPECT DRY HIGH PRESSURE TO SETTLE BACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND KEEP PRECIP CHANCES MINIMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...VFR CONDITIONS AT LEAST INTO THIS EVENING.
MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ARRIVES LATER TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING AS MORE PRONOUNCED LLJ AIMS INTO SRN WI. STILL SOME
TRACK UNCERTAINTY ON MCS BUT OVERALL MOIST ADVECTION WITH 850 LLJ
AND SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY WARRANTS THE CHANCE OF STORMS LATER TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. POCKETS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH ANY STRONGER
STORMS. MESOSCALE DETAILS AFTER OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING STORMS WILL
DICTATE STORM EVOLUTION/SEVERITY ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS
SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT INTERACT WITH POTENTIALLY VERY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS. IN ADDITION WITH LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENING OVERNIGHT SOME
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HOISTED FOR SUNDAY AS PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP AHEAD OF APPROACHING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. SW WINDS SHOULD RAMP UP PRETTY QUICK IN THE MORNING AND GET
RATHER GUSTY. COLD FRONT MAY SPAWN SOME STRONG TSTORMS LATE
AFTN/ERLY EVE.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

TONIGHT/SUNDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...COLLAR
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MRC




    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities