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000
FXUS63 KMKX 270313
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
913 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.UPDATE...

WILL BE ISSUING ONE MORE SPS TO COVER THE MIXED WINTRY PCPN...MAINLY
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WI. SURFACE LOW IS WEAKENING AS IT MOVES SOUTH
WITH FORCING FROM DEPARTING SHEARED SHORT WAVE DIMINISHING
RAPIDLY. AREA OF PRECIPITATION UPSTREAM DIMINISHING WITH LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE WEAKENING AS SURFACE LOW FILLS...TRENDING WELL
WITH HRRR.

BACK EDGE OF PRECIPITATION IS MAKING STEADY PROGRESS SOUTH AND
SHOULD CLEAR MOST OF S CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY 1 AM. LEFT THE LOW
CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FAR EAST THROUGH MOST OF THE
OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD NOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION.

DUAL POL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATING MAINLY POCKETS OF LIGHT
SNOW...MAINLY UNDER HIGHEST CORRELATION COEFFICIENT VALUES...WITH
FREEZING PCPN IN BETWEEN...WHICH IS MAINLY FREEZING DRIZZLE
THOUGH THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW REPORTS OF SLEET. ONLY EXPECT SPOTTY
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF SNOW...BUT
ENOUGH TO KEEP UNTREATED ROADS SLICK.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...

WITH REGION STAYING UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW AND LOW-LEVEL RH FIELDS
KEEPING HIGH VALUES OVER SRN WI UNTIL AT LEAST 18Z...WILL KEEP
IFR CIGS THROUGH 12Z AND AT LEAST MVFR CIGS THROUGH 15Z-18Z.

LATEST NAM BRINGS SOME DRIER AIR IN AROUND MID-MORNING TO THE EAST AND
PUSHES WEST THROUGH THE REST OF THE CWA DURING THE LATE
MORNING...A TREND SUPPORTED BY THE SREF CEILING PROBABILITIES.

00Z NAM 925 MB RH FORECASTS INDICATE A POTENTIAL RETURN OF LOW
CLOUDS WITH WARM AIR/MOISTURE ADVECTION AS WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE SAGS SOUTH IN THE LATER PART OF THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WILL AWAIT LATEST GFS TO SEE IF IT FOLLOWS THIS TREND.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO NORTHWEST WI WILL WEAKEN AS
IT DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT. LIGHT SNOW AHEAD
OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT SOUTHEAST WI THIS
EVENING. IT IS BEING FORCED BY WEAK LOW AND MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
AND WARM ADVECTION. FLURRIES MAY LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT IN
SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN DUE TO LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LAKESHORE
WITH EASTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE
REGION. OBSERVATIONS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AND WESTERN WISCONSIN HAVE
BEEN REPORTING FREEZING DRIZZLE. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY SOUNDINGS FROM
SEVERAL MODELS AND THEY INDICATE FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY PERSIST INTO
THE EVENING IN SOUTH-CENTRAL WI.

WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT DO NOT EXPECT TEMPS TO CHANGE MUCH
OVERNIGHT IN SOUTHEAST WI AND THEY MAY INCREASE SLIGHTLY IN FAR
SOUTHWEST WI. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY
BUT EXPECT CLOUDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING WITH
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST...WHILE WARM
ADVECTION ARRIVES AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM...BUT THE COLUMN REMAINS TOO DRY AT THIS POINT FOR ANY
CONCERN ABOUT PRECIP WITH THE WAA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES AND WE/LL SEE A COMPLEX
MERGER OF SHORT WAVES FROM CANADA AND THE CENTRAL U.S. OCCUR OVER
THE GREAT LAKES DURING THIS PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL TROF GETS
CARVED OUT OVER THE WESTERN LAKES...WHILE THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF ILLINOIS. QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD
STILL REMAIN MOSTLY BELOW .10 INCH. TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUPPORT A
WINTRY MIX WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A DECENT ELEVATED WARM LAYER.
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW ARE POSSIBLE. MAYBE ALL RAIN
EARLY ON ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST...BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO A MIX.

THE PRECIP WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST ON THURSDAY...WITH THE
AFTERNOON LOOKING DRIER THAN THE MORNING.

FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER...BUT TEMPS WILL RUN BELOW
NORMAL FOR A CHANGE.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

THERE IS A LOT OF MODEL UNCERTAINTY FOR THE WEEKEND. BOTH THE GFS
AND THE ECMWF DEVELOP AN UPPER LEVEL LARGE AMPLITUDE LOW PRESSURE
TROF THAT GRADUALLY DRIFTS EAST FROM THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS...THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE U.S. THE GFS HAS THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF HAS THE LOW WELL TO OUR
SOUTH. PRECIP TYPE SHOULDN/T BE A QUESTION WITH EITHER SOLUTION AS
TEMPS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO KEEP IT ALL SNOW.

MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD FOLLOW WITH DRY BUT VERY COLD WEATHER FOR THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

PRECIPITATION WILL SLOWLY PUSH EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THIS
EVENING. EXPECT LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE TO CONTINUE IN SOUTH-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. LIGHT SNOW IS ALSO POSSIBLE AT
TIMES WITH LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON HOW
LATE INTO THE EVENING PRECIPITATION WILL PERSIST. EXPECT LIGHT SNOW
TO CONTINUE IN SOUTH-EAST WISCONSIN INTO THE EVENING WITH UP TO A
COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION AFTER 0Z.
FLURRIES MAY LINGER IN FAR SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN THROUGH THE NIGHT.

IFR CEILINGS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT IN SOUTH-CENTRAL WI. IFR OR MVFR
CEILINGS EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHEAST. THINK VISIBILITIES WILL BE IFR
OR MVFR. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING ON WHEN CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...REM
TONIGHT/TUESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MARQUARDT
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...DAVIS




000
FXUS63 KMKX 270313
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
913 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.UPDATE...

WILL BE ISSUING ONE MORE SPS TO COVER THE MIXED WINTRY PCPN...MAINLY
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WI. SURFACE LOW IS WEAKENING AS IT MOVES SOUTH
WITH FORCING FROM DEPARTING SHEARED SHORT WAVE DIMINISHING
RAPIDLY. AREA OF PRECIPITATION UPSTREAM DIMINISHING WITH LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE WEAKENING AS SURFACE LOW FILLS...TRENDING WELL
WITH HRRR.

BACK EDGE OF PRECIPITATION IS MAKING STEADY PROGRESS SOUTH AND
SHOULD CLEAR MOST OF S CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY 1 AM. LEFT THE LOW
CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FAR EAST THROUGH MOST OF THE
OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD NOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION.

DUAL POL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATING MAINLY POCKETS OF LIGHT
SNOW...MAINLY UNDER HIGHEST CORRELATION COEFFICIENT VALUES...WITH
FREEZING PCPN IN BETWEEN...WHICH IS MAINLY FREEZING DRIZZLE
THOUGH THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW REPORTS OF SLEET. ONLY EXPECT SPOTTY
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF SNOW...BUT
ENOUGH TO KEEP UNTREATED ROADS SLICK.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...

WITH REGION STAYING UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW AND LOW-LEVEL RH FIELDS
KEEPING HIGH VALUES OVER SRN WI UNTIL AT LEAST 18Z...WILL KEEP
IFR CIGS THROUGH 12Z AND AT LEAST MVFR CIGS THROUGH 15Z-18Z.

LATEST NAM BRINGS SOME DRIER AIR IN AROUND MID-MORNING TO THE EAST AND
PUSHES WEST THROUGH THE REST OF THE CWA DURING THE LATE
MORNING...A TREND SUPPORTED BY THE SREF CEILING PROBABILITIES.

00Z NAM 925 MB RH FORECASTS INDICATE A POTENTIAL RETURN OF LOW
CLOUDS WITH WARM AIR/MOISTURE ADVECTION AS WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE SAGS SOUTH IN THE LATER PART OF THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WILL AWAIT LATEST GFS TO SEE IF IT FOLLOWS THIS TREND.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO NORTHWEST WI WILL WEAKEN AS
IT DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT. LIGHT SNOW AHEAD
OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT SOUTHEAST WI THIS
EVENING. IT IS BEING FORCED BY WEAK LOW AND MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
AND WARM ADVECTION. FLURRIES MAY LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT IN
SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN DUE TO LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LAKESHORE
WITH EASTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE
REGION. OBSERVATIONS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AND WESTERN WISCONSIN HAVE
BEEN REPORTING FREEZING DRIZZLE. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY SOUNDINGS FROM
SEVERAL MODELS AND THEY INDICATE FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY PERSIST INTO
THE EVENING IN SOUTH-CENTRAL WI.

WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT DO NOT EXPECT TEMPS TO CHANGE MUCH
OVERNIGHT IN SOUTHEAST WI AND THEY MAY INCREASE SLIGHTLY IN FAR
SOUTHWEST WI. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY
BUT EXPECT CLOUDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING WITH
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST...WHILE WARM
ADVECTION ARRIVES AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM...BUT THE COLUMN REMAINS TOO DRY AT THIS POINT FOR ANY
CONCERN ABOUT PRECIP WITH THE WAA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES AND WE/LL SEE A COMPLEX
MERGER OF SHORT WAVES FROM CANADA AND THE CENTRAL U.S. OCCUR OVER
THE GREAT LAKES DURING THIS PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL TROF GETS
CARVED OUT OVER THE WESTERN LAKES...WHILE THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF ILLINOIS. QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD
STILL REMAIN MOSTLY BELOW .10 INCH. TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUPPORT A
WINTRY MIX WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A DECENT ELEVATED WARM LAYER.
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW ARE POSSIBLE. MAYBE ALL RAIN
EARLY ON ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST...BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO A MIX.

THE PRECIP WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST ON THURSDAY...WITH THE
AFTERNOON LOOKING DRIER THAN THE MORNING.

FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER...BUT TEMPS WILL RUN BELOW
NORMAL FOR A CHANGE.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

THERE IS A LOT OF MODEL UNCERTAINTY FOR THE WEEKEND. BOTH THE GFS
AND THE ECMWF DEVELOP AN UPPER LEVEL LARGE AMPLITUDE LOW PRESSURE
TROF THAT GRADUALLY DRIFTS EAST FROM THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS...THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE U.S. THE GFS HAS THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF HAS THE LOW WELL TO OUR
SOUTH. PRECIP TYPE SHOULDN/T BE A QUESTION WITH EITHER SOLUTION AS
TEMPS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO KEEP IT ALL SNOW.

MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD FOLLOW WITH DRY BUT VERY COLD WEATHER FOR THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

PRECIPITATION WILL SLOWLY PUSH EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THIS
EVENING. EXPECT LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE TO CONTINUE IN SOUTH-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. LIGHT SNOW IS ALSO POSSIBLE AT
TIMES WITH LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON HOW
LATE INTO THE EVENING PRECIPITATION WILL PERSIST. EXPECT LIGHT SNOW
TO CONTINUE IN SOUTH-EAST WISCONSIN INTO THE EVENING WITH UP TO A
COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION AFTER 0Z.
FLURRIES MAY LINGER IN FAR SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN THROUGH THE NIGHT.

IFR CEILINGS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT IN SOUTH-CENTRAL WI. IFR OR MVFR
CEILINGS EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHEAST. THINK VISIBILITIES WILL BE IFR
OR MVFR. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING ON WHEN CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...REM
TONIGHT/TUESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MARQUARDT
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...DAVIS





000
FXUS63 KMKX 262137
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
337 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO NORTHWEST WI WILL WEAKEN AS
IT DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT. LIGHT SNOW AHEAD
OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT SOUTHEAST WI THIS
EVENING. IT IS BEING FORCED BY WEAK LOW AND MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
AND WARM ADVECTION. FLURRIES MAY LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT IN
SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN DUE TO LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LAKESHORE
WITH EASTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE
REGION. OBSERVATIONS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AND WESTERN WISCONSIN HAVE
BEEN REPORTING FREEZING DRIZZLE. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY SOUNDINGS FROM
SEVERAL MODELS AND THEY INDICATE FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY PERSIST INTO
THE EVENING IN SOUTH-CENTRAL WI.

WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT DO NOT EXPECT TEMPS TO CHANGE MUCH
OVERNIGHT IN SOUTHEAST WI AND THEY MAY INCREASE SLIGHTLY IN FAR
SOUTHWEST WI. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY
BUT EXPECT CLOUDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING WITH
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

.WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST...WHILE WARM
ADVECTION ARRIVES AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM...BUT THE COLUMN REMAINS TOO DRY AT THIS POINT FOR ANY
CONCERN ABOUT PRECIP WITH THE WAA.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES AND WE/LL SEE A COMPLEX
MERGER OF SHORT WAVES FROM CANADA AND THE CENTRAL U.S. OCCUR OVER
THE GREAT LAKES DURING THIS PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL TROF GETS
CARVED OUT OVER THE WESTERN LAKES...WHILE THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF ILLINOIS. QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD
STILL REMAIN MOSTLY BELOW .10 INCH. TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUPPORT A
WINTRY MIX WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A DECENT ELEVATED WARM LAYER.
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW ARE POSSIBLE. MAYBE ALL RAIN
EARLY ON ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST...BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO A MIX.

THE PRECIP WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST ON THURSDAY...WITH THE
AFTERNOON LOOKING DRIER THAN THE MORNING.

.FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER...BUT TEMPS WILL RUN BELOW
NORMAL FOR A CHANGE.

.SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

THERE IS A LOT OF MODEL UNCERTAINTY FOR THE WEEKEND. BOTH THE GFS
AND THE ECMWF DEVELOP AN UPPER LEVEL LARGE AMPLITUDE LOW PRESSURE
TROF THAT GRADUALLY DRIFTS EAST FROM THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS...THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE U.S. THE GFS HAS THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF HAS THE LOW WELL TO OUR
SOUTH. PRECIP TYPE SHOULDN/T BE A QUESTION WITH EITHER SOLUTION AS
TEMPS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO KEEP IT ALL SNOW.

.MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD FOLLOW WITH DRY BUT VERY COLD WEATHER FOR THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

PRECIPITATION WILL SLOWLY PUSH EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THIS
EVENING. EXPECT LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE TO CONTINUE IN SOUTH-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. LIGHT SNOW IS ALSO POSSIBLE AT
TIMES WITH LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON HOW
LATE INTO THE EVENING PRECIPITATION WILL PERSIST. EXPECT LIGHT SNOW
TO CONTINUE IN SOUTH-EAST WISCONSIN INTO THE EVENING WITH UP TO A
COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION AFTER 0Z.
FLURRIES MAY LINGER IN FAR SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN THROUGH THE NIGHT.

IFR CEILINGS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT IN SOUTH-CENTRAL WI. IFR OR MVFR
CEILINGS EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHEAST. THINK VISIBILITIES WILL BE IFR
OR MVFR. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING ON WHEN CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TONIGHT/TUESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...SM
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...DAVIS





000
FXUS63 KMKX 262137
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
337 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO NORTHWEST WI WILL WEAKEN AS
IT DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT. LIGHT SNOW AHEAD
OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT SOUTHEAST WI THIS
EVENING. IT IS BEING FORCED BY WEAK LOW AND MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
AND WARM ADVECTION. FLURRIES MAY LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT IN
SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN DUE TO LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LAKESHORE
WITH EASTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE
REGION. OBSERVATIONS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AND WESTERN WISCONSIN HAVE
BEEN REPORTING FREEZING DRIZZLE. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY SOUNDINGS FROM
SEVERAL MODELS AND THEY INDICATE FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY PERSIST INTO
THE EVENING IN SOUTH-CENTRAL WI.

WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT DO NOT EXPECT TEMPS TO CHANGE MUCH
OVERNIGHT IN SOUTHEAST WI AND THEY MAY INCREASE SLIGHTLY IN FAR
SOUTHWEST WI. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY
BUT EXPECT CLOUDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING WITH
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

.WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST...WHILE WARM
ADVECTION ARRIVES AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM...BUT THE COLUMN REMAINS TOO DRY AT THIS POINT FOR ANY
CONCERN ABOUT PRECIP WITH THE WAA.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES AND WE/LL SEE A COMPLEX
MERGER OF SHORT WAVES FROM CANADA AND THE CENTRAL U.S. OCCUR OVER
THE GREAT LAKES DURING THIS PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL TROF GETS
CARVED OUT OVER THE WESTERN LAKES...WHILE THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF ILLINOIS. QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD
STILL REMAIN MOSTLY BELOW .10 INCH. TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUPPORT A
WINTRY MIX WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A DECENT ELEVATED WARM LAYER.
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW ARE POSSIBLE. MAYBE ALL RAIN
EARLY ON ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST...BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO A MIX.

THE PRECIP WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST ON THURSDAY...WITH THE
AFTERNOON LOOKING DRIER THAN THE MORNING.

.FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER...BUT TEMPS WILL RUN BELOW
NORMAL FOR A CHANGE.

.SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

THERE IS A LOT OF MODEL UNCERTAINTY FOR THE WEEKEND. BOTH THE GFS
AND THE ECMWF DEVELOP AN UPPER LEVEL LARGE AMPLITUDE LOW PRESSURE
TROF THAT GRADUALLY DRIFTS EAST FROM THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS...THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE U.S. THE GFS HAS THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF HAS THE LOW WELL TO OUR
SOUTH. PRECIP TYPE SHOULDN/T BE A QUESTION WITH EITHER SOLUTION AS
TEMPS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO KEEP IT ALL SNOW.

.MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD FOLLOW WITH DRY BUT VERY COLD WEATHER FOR THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

PRECIPITATION WILL SLOWLY PUSH EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THIS
EVENING. EXPECT LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE TO CONTINUE IN SOUTH-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. LIGHT SNOW IS ALSO POSSIBLE AT
TIMES WITH LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON HOW
LATE INTO THE EVENING PRECIPITATION WILL PERSIST. EXPECT LIGHT SNOW
TO CONTINUE IN SOUTH-EAST WISCONSIN INTO THE EVENING WITH UP TO A
COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION AFTER 0Z.
FLURRIES MAY LINGER IN FAR SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN THROUGH THE NIGHT.

IFR CEILINGS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT IN SOUTH-CENTRAL WI. IFR OR MVFR
CEILINGS EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHEAST. THINK VISIBILITIES WILL BE IFR
OR MVFR. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING ON WHEN CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TONIGHT/TUESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...SM
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...DAVIS




000
FXUS63 KMKX 261712 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1112 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.UPDATE...
LIGHT SNOW AHEAD OF SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH EAST
TODAY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AS IT DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE STATE. LOW AND MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BUT
ALSO WEAKENS. AS A RESULT EXPECT PRECIP TO DIMINISH SOMEWHAT
AS IT PROGRESSES EASTWARD. EXPECT AMOUNTS UP TO 1 INCH. LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING IN SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN UNTIL
THE LOW CLEARS THE REGION. SOUNDINGS STILL INDICATE LIGHT FREEZING
DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE IN SOUTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING AS DRIER AIR INTRUDES THE SNOW GROWTH
ZONE AND WE LOSE ICE CRYSTALS.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...
LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND IS EXPECTED
TO WEAKEN IN INTENSITY SOMEWHAT AS IT GETS INTO SOUTHEAST WI. THE
BAND OF LIFR/IFR VISIBILITIES CURRENTLY OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL WI IS
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE IFR/MVFR RANGE WHEN IT GETS TO EASTERN
WISCONSIN. LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH THE
EVENING IN SOUTHEAST WI. THINK SNOW TOTALS WILL BE AN INCH AT
MOST.

LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE IS STILL POSSIBLE IN SOUTH-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SEVERAL LOCATIONS IN
WESTERN WISCONSIN HAVE REPORTED IT THIS MORNING. THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW LOW CEILINGS WILL BE LATER TODAY AND INTO
THE EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY
WHICH WILL DRY OUT THE LOW LEVELS AND HELP RAISE CEILINGS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MARQUARDT
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...GEHRING
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...COLLAR




000
FXUS63 KMKX 261712 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1112 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.UPDATE...
LIGHT SNOW AHEAD OF SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH EAST
TODAY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AS IT DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE STATE. LOW AND MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BUT
ALSO WEAKENS. AS A RESULT EXPECT PRECIP TO DIMINISH SOMEWHAT
AS IT PROGRESSES EASTWARD. EXPECT AMOUNTS UP TO 1 INCH. LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING IN SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN UNTIL
THE LOW CLEARS THE REGION. SOUNDINGS STILL INDICATE LIGHT FREEZING
DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE IN SOUTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING AS DRIER AIR INTRUDES THE SNOW GROWTH
ZONE AND WE LOSE ICE CRYSTALS.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...
LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND IS EXPECTED
TO WEAKEN IN INTENSITY SOMEWHAT AS IT GETS INTO SOUTHEAST WI. THE
BAND OF LIFR/IFR VISIBILITIES CURRENTLY OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL WI IS
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE IFR/MVFR RANGE WHEN IT GETS TO EASTERN
WISCONSIN. LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH THE
EVENING IN SOUTHEAST WI. THINK SNOW TOTALS WILL BE AN INCH AT
MOST.

LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE IS STILL POSSIBLE IN SOUTH-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SEVERAL LOCATIONS IN
WESTERN WISCONSIN HAVE REPORTED IT THIS MORNING. THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW LOW CEILINGS WILL BE LATER TODAY AND INTO
THE EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY
WHICH WILL DRY OUT THE LOW LEVELS AND HELP RAISE CEILINGS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MARQUARDT
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...GEHRING
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...COLLAR





000
FXUS63 KMKX 260925
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
325 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH.

A COUPLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS FROM MN INTO CANADA WILL TRACK SEWD
ACROSS SRN WI LATER TODAY AND TNT. A WELL ORGANIZED WARM ADVECTION
PATTERN AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND FRONTOGENESIS WILL GENERATE A BAND
OF SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST FROM THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE
SFC TROUGH WILL LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT ALONG WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SO VERY LIGHT SNOW WILL LINGER ESPECIALLY OVER
ERN WI. THE MODELS DO SHOW A WEAKENING OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE STATE SO SNOW TOTALS WILL BE LESS OVER ERN WI. SNOW ACCUM
FORECAST RANGES FROM ONE INCH OVER ERN WI TO 1-2 INCHES OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL WI. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FREEZING
DRIZZLE MAINLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WI IN THE WAKE OF THE MAIN AREA OF
LIGHT SNOW. THE IMPACT OF ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY BE
MINIMAL WITH THE SNOW FALLING FIRST AND ROAD TREATMENTS OCCURRING.

.TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
500 MILLIBAR NVA STARTS TO WORK INTO THE AREA. LOW LEVEL THERMAL
TROUGH LINGERS SO EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUD COVER TO LINGER.
HINT OF INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH EARLY THEN HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.

.WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY A RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW SETS UP. SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY REMAINS IN THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WITH SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT FOCUSED NEAR SRN IA. DECENT
WAA AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM SENDS 850 TEMPS ABOVE ZERO. THE ECMWF HAS
PRECIP WELL NORTH OF THE AREA...THE NAM LOOKS WETTER ACRS SRN WI
WITH SPLOTCHY 0.01...WITH THE GFS MORE OF A COMPROMISE WITH PRECIP
ACRS NRN WI. WILL LEAVE DRY FORECAST INTACT. 925 TEMPS SUGGEST AT
LEAST MID 30S FOR HIGHS.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN BRINGING PRECIP TO THE AREA AS
UPPER DYNAMICS APPROACH AND LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF WI. QPF
AMOUNTS NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE...LESS THAN 0.10. STILL POTENTIAL FOR
SOME MIXY PRECIP PRIOR TO 6Z WITH THE WARM LAYER INTO SRN WI.
AFTER 6Z...THE LOW WRAPS COLDER AIR INTO THE AIR TO CONVERT ANY
LINGERING MIX TO LIGHT SNOW. 00Z ECMWF KEEPS LIGHT PRECIP AROUND
LONGER WHILE THE NAM AND GFS TEND TO WRAP THINGS UP IN THE
MORNING. GETTING SNOW AMOUNTS OF AROUND A HALF TO 1 INCH.

.FRIDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
SURFACE HIGH QUICKLY TAKES HOLD MIDDAY DOMINATING THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. HIGH SHIFTS EAST LATER IN THE DAY THOUGH ANY
INFLUENCE OF NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM HOLDS OFF TO OUR WEST.

.SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW
MODELS SHOW COLD FRONT SWINGING THROUGH THE AREA WITH THE ECMWF
QUICKER AND MORE ASSERTIVE ON COLD AIR INTRUSION IN THE WAKE OF
THE FROPA. BLENDED QPF AMOUNTS ARE AGAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE WITH
THE GFS SHOWING MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE AND THE ECMWF JUST
CLIPPING THE NE CWA.

.SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW
STILL CONSIDERABLE DISPARITY ON THE DURATION AND EXTEND OF
POTENTIALLY ARCTIC COLD LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH. THE ECMWF IS
STILL SHOWING 925 TEMPS OF -20 TO -22C WELL ENTRENCHED WHILE THE
GFS 8-10 DEGREES WARMER AND ALREADY HINTING AT SOME RETURN WAA BY
LATER IN THE DAY. BLENDED APPROACH STILL BEST WAY TO GO AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...MVFR CIGS VIA LAKE EFFECT STRATOCUMULUS WILL
LINGER EARLY THIS AM OVER FAR SE WI...BUT SHOULD CLEAR AROUND
SUNRISE AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW BECOMES SLY. THE LIGHT SNOW WILL
THEN BEGIN TO MOVE SLOWLY FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS SRN WI BEGINNING
AROUND 16Z AT KMSN AND 20Z FOR THE SE WI TAF SITES. VSBYS WITHIN THE
SNOW WILL RANGE FROM 1-3 MILES WITH CIGS FALLING TO 1 KFT OR BELOW
AT TIMES. PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY OCCUR OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WI
FROM THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. WITH A WEAK SFC TROUGH OVER THE
AREA TNT...THE LOW CIGS AND VSBY RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE EVEN
AFTER THE SNOW OR FREEZING DRIZZLE ENDS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...GEHRING
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...COLLAR




000
FXUS63 KMKX 260317
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
917 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.UPDATE...

DO NOT EXPECT ANY LIGHT SNOW PUSHING INTO WEST AREAS UNTIL MID
MORNING. NAM IS SIMILAR TO 18Z RUN...BUT HRRR DOES NOT DEVELOP
PRECIP TO THE WEST...AND INSTEAD DEVELOPS IT AROUND MID MORNING
OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

NO SIGN OF ANY LAKE EFFECT FLURRIES OFF MILWAUKEE TERMINAL RADAR.
LIMITED LAKE CLOUDS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...

MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN WITH MAINLY
SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND 25 HUNDRED FEET ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN
TONIGHT.

WILL LIKELY SEE A RETURN TO MVFR ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN MID TO LATE
MONDAY MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE BRINGS
ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW. SNOW AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
GENERALLY AROUND AN INCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. COULD SEE CLOSER
TO 2 INCHES IN THE NORTH PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE
FORCING WILL BE STRONGER.

ONE OTHER CONCERN IS THE POSSIBLE LOSS OF ICE CRYSTAL FORMATION FROM
WEST TO EAST TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS COULD RESULT IN
SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE AND ALSO CUT DOWN ON SNOW AMOUNTS A LITTLE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/

TONIGHT AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

CLEARING CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST. LATEST
MESOSCALE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES THE CLEARING THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE THE FORECAST AREA INTO LATE AFTERNOON. WHILE MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING AND
INTO THE NIGHT. MAY SEE A LITTLE SNOW DEVELOP TOO...BUT WOULD LIKELY
BE VERY LIGHT...WITH BORDERLINE SFC-850 MB DELTA T VALUES AND
SATURATION ONLY UP TO ABOUT 3 KFT VIA NAM SOUNDINGS. KEPT LOWS
TONIGHT MILDER IN THE EAST DUE TO THE ONSHORE WINDS AND CLOUD
POTENTIAL.

STILL EXPECTING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW ON MONDAY. OVERALL
FORCING LOOKS BEST IN THE NORTHWEST FORECAST AREA IN THE
MORNING...WITH WEAKENING LIFT THROUGH THE DAY. SEEING DECENT SUPPORT
FOR HIGH POPS VIA LOW LEVEL Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE...850-700 MB WARM
AIR ADVECTION...AND EVEN SOME UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF THE JET. MODEL QPF HAS COME UP A BIT...SO INCREASED
FORECAST VALUES. 1000-500 MB THICKNESS VALUES AND SFC TEMPS SUPPORT
SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS OF AROUND 15-17 TO 1...RESULTING IN SNOW
AMOUNTS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON FROM AROUND A HALF AN INCH IN THE FAR
SOUTHEAST...TO NEARLY 2 INCHES IN THE FAR NORTHWEST.

ONE CONCERN IS THE POSSIBLE LOSS OF ICE CRYSTAL FORMATION BEGINNING
IN THE WEST BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS COULD RESULT IN SOME
FREEZING DRIZZLE AND ALSO CUT DOWN ON SNOW AMOUNTS A BIT. SOUNDINGS
SHOW SATURATION RIGHT UP TO ABOUT -10C...SO KIND OF A TOUGH CALL.
MENTIONED PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE WEST.

TEMPS ALOFT ARE EXPECTED TO WARM THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW...SO
SHOULD STILL SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30 EVEN WITH THE
CLOUDS AND SNOW.

MONDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

FORCING FOR MAINLY LIGHT SNOW WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING AS
SHORT WAVE ENERGY CONTINUES TO STREAK SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
ALONG THE CYCLONIC SIDE OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET. THE FORCING
AND MOISTURE MOVE OFF QUICKLY DURING THE EVENING...SO WILL
STEADILY DECREASE POPS FROM WEST TO EAST. THE PRECIP TYPE IS AN
ISSUE FOR ALL BUT THE FAR EAST AND NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE
CWA...SO WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE. ANY
ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUM WOULD BE LESS THAN 1/2 INCH.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST ON TUESDAY AND
LINGERS LONG ENOUGH TO KEEP US DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. IT MAY BE A
DIRTY HIGH...AS WE SAY...WITH ENOUGH CLOUDS AROUND TO KEEP IT MORE
ON THE MOSTLY CLOUDY SIDE. BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL RUN A BIT
ABOVE NORMAL.

THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

THE GFS AND THE ECMWF ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING A
FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. THERE/S ACTUALLY TWO SHORT WAVES THAT MERGE...ONE COMING
FROM THE ALBERTA CLIPPER GENESIS REGION...THE OTHER FROM THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THIS HELPS CARVE OUT A DIGGING TROF OVER THE
GREAT LAKES...BUT THE TIMING PUTS THE BETTER QPF OFF TO OUR EAST.
AND EVEN THAT ISN/T TOO IMPRESSIVE. FOR US...WE/RE LOOKING AT QPF
NUMBERS AROUND .05...SO NOTHING OF CONCERN AT THIS POINT. DECENT
LEADING WARM ADVECTION WILL PUSH SOME MILDER TEMPS UP HERE THAT
PUTS PRECIP TYPE INTO QUESTION AGAIN. WILL GO WITH A RAIN/SNOW
MIX WEDNESDAY EVENING...CHANGING OVER TO ALL SNOW LATER ON.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

HIGH PRESSURE TO BRING DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPS FINALLY COOLING DOWN
TO LEVELS MORE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

ANOTHER WEAK TROF PASSES THROUGH BRINGING SMALL CHANCES FOR LIGHT
SNOW. TEMPS WILL BE RUNNING AT OR BELOW NORMAL FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

CLEARING CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST. LATEST
MESOSCALE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES THE CLEARING THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE THE FORECAST AREA INTO LATE AFTERNOON.

COULD SEE A LITTLE LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN THE EAST DEVELOP BY LATE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. LOOKS PRETTY LIGHT THOUGH AND MAY ONLY
BE FLURRIES...SO WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW. AT THE VERY
LEAST...WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME MVFR CIGS RETURN TO THE SOUTHEAST.

WILL LIKELY SEE A RETURN TO MVFR ACROSS SOUTHER WISCONSIN LATE
MONDAY MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE BRINGS ANOTHER
ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW. SNOW AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY
AROUND AN INCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. COULD SEE CLOSER TO 2 INCHES
IN THE NORTHWEST FORECAST AREA WHERE FORCING WILL BE STRONGER IN THE
MORNING.

ONE OTHER CONCERN IS THE POSSIBLE LOSS OF ICE CRYSTAL FORMATION FROM
WEST TO EAST TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS COULD RESULT IN
SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE AND ALSO CUT DOWN ON SNOW AMOUNTS A LITTLE.

MARINE...

WIND GUSTS WILL EASE EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH HIGHER WAVES
LINGERING INTO LATE EVENING...SO WILL KEEP THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
GOING INTO THE EVENING. HIGHER WAVES WILL PERSIST LONGER IN THE
SOUTH DUE TO THE NORTHEAST FLOW. LIGHTER WINDS AND SUBSIDING WAVES
ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR LMZ644>646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HENTZ
TONIGHT/MONDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...DDV
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...DAVIS




000
FXUS63 KMKX 260317
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
917 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.UPDATE...

DO NOT EXPECT ANY LIGHT SNOW PUSHING INTO WEST AREAS UNTIL MID
MORNING. NAM IS SIMILAR TO 18Z RUN...BUT HRRR DOES NOT DEVELOP
PRECIP TO THE WEST...AND INSTEAD DEVELOPS IT AROUND MID MORNING
OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

NO SIGN OF ANY LAKE EFFECT FLURRIES OFF MILWAUKEE TERMINAL RADAR.
LIMITED LAKE CLOUDS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...

MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN WITH MAINLY
SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND 25 HUNDRED FEET ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN
TONIGHT.

WILL LIKELY SEE A RETURN TO MVFR ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN MID TO LATE
MONDAY MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE BRINGS
ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW. SNOW AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
GENERALLY AROUND AN INCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. COULD SEE CLOSER
TO 2 INCHES IN THE NORTH PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE
FORCING WILL BE STRONGER.

ONE OTHER CONCERN IS THE POSSIBLE LOSS OF ICE CRYSTAL FORMATION FROM
WEST TO EAST TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS COULD RESULT IN
SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE AND ALSO CUT DOWN ON SNOW AMOUNTS A LITTLE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/

TONIGHT AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

CLEARING CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST. LATEST
MESOSCALE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES THE CLEARING THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE THE FORECAST AREA INTO LATE AFTERNOON. WHILE MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING AND
INTO THE NIGHT. MAY SEE A LITTLE SNOW DEVELOP TOO...BUT WOULD LIKELY
BE VERY LIGHT...WITH BORDERLINE SFC-850 MB DELTA T VALUES AND
SATURATION ONLY UP TO ABOUT 3 KFT VIA NAM SOUNDINGS. KEPT LOWS
TONIGHT MILDER IN THE EAST DUE TO THE ONSHORE WINDS AND CLOUD
POTENTIAL.

STILL EXPECTING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW ON MONDAY. OVERALL
FORCING LOOKS BEST IN THE NORTHWEST FORECAST AREA IN THE
MORNING...WITH WEAKENING LIFT THROUGH THE DAY. SEEING DECENT SUPPORT
FOR HIGH POPS VIA LOW LEVEL Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE...850-700 MB WARM
AIR ADVECTION...AND EVEN SOME UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF THE JET. MODEL QPF HAS COME UP A BIT...SO INCREASED
FORECAST VALUES. 1000-500 MB THICKNESS VALUES AND SFC TEMPS SUPPORT
SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS OF AROUND 15-17 TO 1...RESULTING IN SNOW
AMOUNTS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON FROM AROUND A HALF AN INCH IN THE FAR
SOUTHEAST...TO NEARLY 2 INCHES IN THE FAR NORTHWEST.

ONE CONCERN IS THE POSSIBLE LOSS OF ICE CRYSTAL FORMATION BEGINNING
IN THE WEST BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS COULD RESULT IN SOME
FREEZING DRIZZLE AND ALSO CUT DOWN ON SNOW AMOUNTS A BIT. SOUNDINGS
SHOW SATURATION RIGHT UP TO ABOUT -10C...SO KIND OF A TOUGH CALL.
MENTIONED PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE WEST.

TEMPS ALOFT ARE EXPECTED TO WARM THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW...SO
SHOULD STILL SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30 EVEN WITH THE
CLOUDS AND SNOW.

MONDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

FORCING FOR MAINLY LIGHT SNOW WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING AS
SHORT WAVE ENERGY CONTINUES TO STREAK SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
ALONG THE CYCLONIC SIDE OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET. THE FORCING
AND MOISTURE MOVE OFF QUICKLY DURING THE EVENING...SO WILL
STEADILY DECREASE POPS FROM WEST TO EAST. THE PRECIP TYPE IS AN
ISSUE FOR ALL BUT THE FAR EAST AND NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE
CWA...SO WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE. ANY
ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUM WOULD BE LESS THAN 1/2 INCH.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST ON TUESDAY AND
LINGERS LONG ENOUGH TO KEEP US DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. IT MAY BE A
DIRTY HIGH...AS WE SAY...WITH ENOUGH CLOUDS AROUND TO KEEP IT MORE
ON THE MOSTLY CLOUDY SIDE. BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL RUN A BIT
ABOVE NORMAL.

THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

THE GFS AND THE ECMWF ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING A
FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. THERE/S ACTUALLY TWO SHORT WAVES THAT MERGE...ONE COMING
FROM THE ALBERTA CLIPPER GENESIS REGION...THE OTHER FROM THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THIS HELPS CARVE OUT A DIGGING TROF OVER THE
GREAT LAKES...BUT THE TIMING PUTS THE BETTER QPF OFF TO OUR EAST.
AND EVEN THAT ISN/T TOO IMPRESSIVE. FOR US...WE/RE LOOKING AT QPF
NUMBERS AROUND .05...SO NOTHING OF CONCERN AT THIS POINT. DECENT
LEADING WARM ADVECTION WILL PUSH SOME MILDER TEMPS UP HERE THAT
PUTS PRECIP TYPE INTO QUESTION AGAIN. WILL GO WITH A RAIN/SNOW
MIX WEDNESDAY EVENING...CHANGING OVER TO ALL SNOW LATER ON.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

HIGH PRESSURE TO BRING DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPS FINALLY COOLING DOWN
TO LEVELS MORE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

ANOTHER WEAK TROF PASSES THROUGH BRINGING SMALL CHANCES FOR LIGHT
SNOW. TEMPS WILL BE RUNNING AT OR BELOW NORMAL FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

CLEARING CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST. LATEST
MESOSCALE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES THE CLEARING THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE THE FORECAST AREA INTO LATE AFTERNOON.

COULD SEE A LITTLE LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN THE EAST DEVELOP BY LATE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. LOOKS PRETTY LIGHT THOUGH AND MAY ONLY
BE FLURRIES...SO WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW. AT THE VERY
LEAST...WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME MVFR CIGS RETURN TO THE SOUTHEAST.

WILL LIKELY SEE A RETURN TO MVFR ACROSS SOUTHER WISCONSIN LATE
MONDAY MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE BRINGS ANOTHER
ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW. SNOW AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY
AROUND AN INCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. COULD SEE CLOSER TO 2 INCHES
IN THE NORTHWEST FORECAST AREA WHERE FORCING WILL BE STRONGER IN THE
MORNING.

ONE OTHER CONCERN IS THE POSSIBLE LOSS OF ICE CRYSTAL FORMATION FROM
WEST TO EAST TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS COULD RESULT IN
SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE AND ALSO CUT DOWN ON SNOW AMOUNTS A LITTLE.

MARINE...

WIND GUSTS WILL EASE EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH HIGHER WAVES
LINGERING INTO LATE EVENING...SO WILL KEEP THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
GOING INTO THE EVENING. HIGHER WAVES WILL PERSIST LONGER IN THE
SOUTH DUE TO THE NORTHEAST FLOW. LIGHTER WINDS AND SUBSIDING WAVES
ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR LMZ644>646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HENTZ
TONIGHT/MONDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...DDV
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...DAVIS





000
FXUS63 KMKX 252107
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
307 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.TONIGHT AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

CLEARING CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST. LATEST
MESOSCALE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES THE CLEARING THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE THE FORECAST AREA INTO LATE AFTERNOON. WHILE MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING AND
INTO THE NIGHT. MAY SEE A LITTLE SNOW DEVELOP TOO...BUT WOULD LIKELY
BE VERY LIGHT...WITH BORDERLINE SFC-850 MB DELTA T VALUES AND
SATURATION ONLY UP TO ABOUT 3 KFT VIA NAM SOUNDINGS. KEPT LOWS
TONIGHT MILDER IN THE EAST DUE TO THE ONSHORE WINDS AND CLOUD
POTENTIAL.

STILL EXPECTING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW ON MONDAY. OVERALL
FORCING LOOKS BEST IN THE NORTHWEST FORECAST AREA IN THE
MORNING...WITH WEAKENING LIFT THROUGH THE DAY. SEEING DECENT SUPPORT
FOR HIGH POPS VIA LOW LEVEL Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE...850-700 MB WARM
AIR ADVECTION...AND EVEN SOME UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF THE JET. MODEL QPF HAS COME UP A BIT...SO INCREASED
FORECAST VALUES. 1000-500 MB THICKNESS VALUES AND SFC TEMPS SUPPORT
SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS OF AROUND 15-17 TO 1...RESULTING IN SNOW
AMOUNTS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON FROM AROUND A HALF AN INCH IN THE FAR
SOUTHEAST...TO NEARLY 2 INCHES IN THE FAR NORTHWEST.

ONE CONCERN IS THE POSSIBLE LOSS OF ICE CRYSTAL FORMATION BEGINNING
IN THE WEST BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS COULD RESULT IN SOME
FREEZING DRIZZLE AND ALSO CUT DOWN ON SNOW AMOUNTS A BIT. SOUNDINGS
SHOW SATURATION RIGHT UP TO ABOUT -10C...SO KIND OF A TOUGH CALL.
MENTIONED PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE WEST.

TEMPS ALOFT ARE EXPECTED TO WARM THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW...SO
SHOULD STILL SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30 EVEN WITH THE
CLOUDS AND SNOW.

.MONDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

FORCING FOR MAINLY LIGHT SNOW WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING AS
SHORT WAVE ENERGY CONTINUES TO STREAK SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
ALONG THE CYCLONIC SIDE OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET. THE FORCING
AND MOISTURE MOVE OFF QUICKLY DURING THE EVENING...SO WILL
STEADILY DECREASE POPS FROM WEST TO EAST. THE PRECIP TYPE IS AN
ISSUE FOR ALL BUT THE FAR EAST AND NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE
CWA...SO WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE. ANY
ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUM WOULD BE LESS THAN 1/2 INCH.

.TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST ON TUESDAY AND
LINGERS LONG ENOUGH TO KEEP US DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. IT MAY BE A
DIRTY HIGH...AS WE SAY...WITH ENOUGH CLOUDS AROUND TO KEEP IT MORE
ON THE MOSTLY CLOUDY SIDE. BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL RUN A BIT
ABOVE NORMAL.

.THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

THE GFS AND THE ECMWF ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING A
FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. THERE/S ACTUALLY TWO SHORT WAVES THAT MERGE...ONE COMING
FROM THE ALBERTA CLIPPER GENESIS REGION...THE OTHER FROM THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THIS HELPS CARVE OUT A DIGGING TROF OVER THE
GREAT LAKES...BUT THE TIMING PUTS THE BETTER QPF OFF TO OUR EAST.
AND EVEN THAT ISN/T TOO IMPRESSIVE. FOR US...WE/RE LOOKING AT QPF
NUMBERS AROUND .05...SO NOTHING OF CONCERN AT THIS POINT. DECENT
LEADING WARM ADVECTION WILL PUSH SOME MILDER TEMPS UP HERE THAT
PUTS PRECIP TYPE INTO QUESTION AGAIN. WILL GO WITH A RAIN/SNOW
MIX WEDNESDAY EVENING...CHANGING OVER TO ALL SNOW LATER ON.

.THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

HIGH PRESSURE TO BRING DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPS FINALLY COOLING DOWN
TO LEVELS MORE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

ANOTHER WEAK TROF PASSES THROUGH BRINGING SMALL CHANCES FOR LIGHT
SNOW. TEMPS WILL BE RUNNING AT OR BELOW NORMAL FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

CLEARING CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST. LATEST
MESOSCALE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES THE CLEARING THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE THE FORECAST AREA INTO LATE AFTERNOON.

COULD SEE A LITTLE LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN THE EAST DEVELOP BY LATE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. LOOKS PRETTY LIGHT THOUGH AND MAY ONLY
BE FLURRIES...SO WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW. AT THE VERY
LEAST...WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME MVFR CIGS RETURN TO THE SOUTHEAST.

WILL LIKELY SEE A RETURN TO MVFR ACROSS SOUTHER WISCONSIN LATE
MONDAY MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE BRINGS ANOTHER
ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW. SNOW AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY
AROUND AN INCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. COULD SEE CLOSER TO 2 INCHES
IN THE NORTHWEST FORECAST AREA WHERE FORCING WILL BE STRONGER IN THE
MORNING.

ONE OTHER CONCERN IS THE POSSIBLE LOSS OF ICE CRYSTAL FORMATION FROM
WEST TO EAST TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS COULD RESULT IN
SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE AND ALSO CUT DOWN ON SNOW AMOUNTS A LITTLE.

&&

.MARINE...

WIND GUSTS WILL EASE EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH HIGHER WAVES
LINGERING INTO LATE EVENING...SO WILL KEEP THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
GOING INTO THE EVENING. HIGHER WAVES WILL PERSIST LONGER IN THE
SOUTH DUE TO THE NORTHEAST FLOW. LIGHTER WINDS AND SUBSIDING WAVES
ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR LMZ644>646.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643.

&&

$$

TONIGHT/MONDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...DDV
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...DAVIS





000
FXUS63 KMKX 252107
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
307 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.TONIGHT AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

CLEARING CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST. LATEST
MESOSCALE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES THE CLEARING THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE THE FORECAST AREA INTO LATE AFTERNOON. WHILE MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING AND
INTO THE NIGHT. MAY SEE A LITTLE SNOW DEVELOP TOO...BUT WOULD LIKELY
BE VERY LIGHT...WITH BORDERLINE SFC-850 MB DELTA T VALUES AND
SATURATION ONLY UP TO ABOUT 3 KFT VIA NAM SOUNDINGS. KEPT LOWS
TONIGHT MILDER IN THE EAST DUE TO THE ONSHORE WINDS AND CLOUD
POTENTIAL.

STILL EXPECTING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW ON MONDAY. OVERALL
FORCING LOOKS BEST IN THE NORTHWEST FORECAST AREA IN THE
MORNING...WITH WEAKENING LIFT THROUGH THE DAY. SEEING DECENT SUPPORT
FOR HIGH POPS VIA LOW LEVEL Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE...850-700 MB WARM
AIR ADVECTION...AND EVEN SOME UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF THE JET. MODEL QPF HAS COME UP A BIT...SO INCREASED
FORECAST VALUES. 1000-500 MB THICKNESS VALUES AND SFC TEMPS SUPPORT
SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS OF AROUND 15-17 TO 1...RESULTING IN SNOW
AMOUNTS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON FROM AROUND A HALF AN INCH IN THE FAR
SOUTHEAST...TO NEARLY 2 INCHES IN THE FAR NORTHWEST.

ONE CONCERN IS THE POSSIBLE LOSS OF ICE CRYSTAL FORMATION BEGINNING
IN THE WEST BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS COULD RESULT IN SOME
FREEZING DRIZZLE AND ALSO CUT DOWN ON SNOW AMOUNTS A BIT. SOUNDINGS
SHOW SATURATION RIGHT UP TO ABOUT -10C...SO KIND OF A TOUGH CALL.
MENTIONED PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE WEST.

TEMPS ALOFT ARE EXPECTED TO WARM THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW...SO
SHOULD STILL SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30 EVEN WITH THE
CLOUDS AND SNOW.

.MONDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

FORCING FOR MAINLY LIGHT SNOW WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING AS
SHORT WAVE ENERGY CONTINUES TO STREAK SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
ALONG THE CYCLONIC SIDE OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET. THE FORCING
AND MOISTURE MOVE OFF QUICKLY DURING THE EVENING...SO WILL
STEADILY DECREASE POPS FROM WEST TO EAST. THE PRECIP TYPE IS AN
ISSUE FOR ALL BUT THE FAR EAST AND NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE
CWA...SO WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE. ANY
ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUM WOULD BE LESS THAN 1/2 INCH.

.TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST ON TUESDAY AND
LINGERS LONG ENOUGH TO KEEP US DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. IT MAY BE A
DIRTY HIGH...AS WE SAY...WITH ENOUGH CLOUDS AROUND TO KEEP IT MORE
ON THE MOSTLY CLOUDY SIDE. BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL RUN A BIT
ABOVE NORMAL.

.THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

THE GFS AND THE ECMWF ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING A
FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. THERE/S ACTUALLY TWO SHORT WAVES THAT MERGE...ONE COMING
FROM THE ALBERTA CLIPPER GENESIS REGION...THE OTHER FROM THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THIS HELPS CARVE OUT A DIGGING TROF OVER THE
GREAT LAKES...BUT THE TIMING PUTS THE BETTER QPF OFF TO OUR EAST.
AND EVEN THAT ISN/T TOO IMPRESSIVE. FOR US...WE/RE LOOKING AT QPF
NUMBERS AROUND .05...SO NOTHING OF CONCERN AT THIS POINT. DECENT
LEADING WARM ADVECTION WILL PUSH SOME MILDER TEMPS UP HERE THAT
PUTS PRECIP TYPE INTO QUESTION AGAIN. WILL GO WITH A RAIN/SNOW
MIX WEDNESDAY EVENING...CHANGING OVER TO ALL SNOW LATER ON.

.THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

HIGH PRESSURE TO BRING DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPS FINALLY COOLING DOWN
TO LEVELS MORE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

ANOTHER WEAK TROF PASSES THROUGH BRINGING SMALL CHANCES FOR LIGHT
SNOW. TEMPS WILL BE RUNNING AT OR BELOW NORMAL FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

CLEARING CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST. LATEST
MESOSCALE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES THE CLEARING THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE THE FORECAST AREA INTO LATE AFTERNOON.

COULD SEE A LITTLE LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN THE EAST DEVELOP BY LATE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. LOOKS PRETTY LIGHT THOUGH AND MAY ONLY
BE FLURRIES...SO WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW. AT THE VERY
LEAST...WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME MVFR CIGS RETURN TO THE SOUTHEAST.

WILL LIKELY SEE A RETURN TO MVFR ACROSS SOUTHER WISCONSIN LATE
MONDAY MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE BRINGS ANOTHER
ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW. SNOW AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY
AROUND AN INCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. COULD SEE CLOSER TO 2 INCHES
IN THE NORTHWEST FORECAST AREA WHERE FORCING WILL BE STRONGER IN THE
MORNING.

ONE OTHER CONCERN IS THE POSSIBLE LOSS OF ICE CRYSTAL FORMATION FROM
WEST TO EAST TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS COULD RESULT IN
SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE AND ALSO CUT DOWN ON SNOW AMOUNTS A LITTLE.

&&

.MARINE...

WIND GUSTS WILL EASE EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH HIGHER WAVES
LINGERING INTO LATE EVENING...SO WILL KEEP THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
GOING INTO THE EVENING. HIGHER WAVES WILL PERSIST LONGER IN THE
SOUTH DUE TO THE NORTHEAST FLOW. LIGHTER WINDS AND SUBSIDING WAVES
ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR LMZ644>646.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643.

&&

$$

TONIGHT/MONDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...DDV
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...DAVIS




000
FXUS63 KMKX 251537 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
937 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.UPDATE...

LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO WIND DOWN FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THIS
MORNING...PUSHING SOUTH OF THE WI/IL STATE LINE BY AFTERNOON.
COULD SEE A LITTLE LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN THE EAST DEVELOP BY LATE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. LOOKS PRETTY LIGHT THOUGH...WITH
BORDERLINE SFC-850 MB DELTA T VALUES AND SATURATION ONLY UP TO
ABOUT 3 KFT. MAY JUST MENTION FLURRIES.

MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE
CLOUDS ALONG WITH FALLING TEMPS ALOFT WILL KEEP SURFACE TEMPS
NEARLY STEADY INTO MID-AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO WIND DOWN FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THIS
MORNING...PUSHING SOUTH OF THE WI/IL STATE LINE BY AFTERNOON.
COULD SEE A LITTLE LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN THE EAST DEVELOP BY LATE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. LOOKS PRETTY LIGHT THOUGH AND MAY ONLY
BE FLURRIES.

SHOULD SEE MAINLY MVFR CIGS INTO THIS EVENING. SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH CIGS THEN LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...AS THERE IS A MIX
OF CONDITIONS UPSTREAM AND MODEL SOUNDINGS NOT IN AGREEMENT. IF
CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR FOR A TIME...WILL LIKELY SEE A RETURN
TO MVFR LATE MONDAY MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE
BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW. SNOW AMOUNTS LOOK GENERALLY
UNDER AN INCH THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL TRACK TO SRN IL TODAY
AND ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TNT. THIS SRN TRACK HAS RESULTED IN
ONLY AREAS OF VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES. THE SW HALF OF THE CWA
WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW THIS AM WITH ONLY SMALL
CHANCES ELSEWHERE. THE NELY WINDS WILL BRING VERY DRY AIR INTO THE
REGION ESPECIALLY AT 850-700 MB LAYER...THUS LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS WILL
ONLY BE CAPABLE OF FLURRIES THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. THE DRYING
SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AWAY FROM FAR SE WI
FOR THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S DURING
THE MORNING ON BRISK NELY WINDS AND COLD ADVECTION. THEY WILL HOLD
INTO THE AFTERNOON...THEN DROPPING TOWARD EVENING. LAKE EFFECT
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE MUCH OF THE NIGHT OVER FAR SE WI AND
WILL THEN BE REPLACED BY HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT AS WARM
ADVECTION ALOFT MOVES INTO THE REGION. TEMPS SHOULD BE ABLE TO DROP
INTO THE LOWER TO MID TEENS AWAY FROM THE LAKE BEFORE THE HIGH
CLOUDS ARRIVE DURING THE OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
SURFACE/850 TROUGH AXIS SWINGS ACROSS THE STATE. SWATH OF 850
MILLIBAR WARM AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. THE NAM
IS SLOWEST TO SPREAD QPF INTO THE AREA. SUSTAINED FORCING LOOKS
POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING DUE TO SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE WEAK
LOW...THUS MAINTAINING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. POTENTIAL FOR SOME
FREEZING DRIZZLE AS WELL DUE TO LOSS OF SATURATION WITHIN THE
DENDRIDIC GROWTH ZONE. UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY IS MOSTLY OF THE
SHEARED VARIETY. PROXIMITY OF SURFACE TROUGH AND SHEAR AXIS KEEPS
POPS GOING INTO MONDAY EVENING. SNOW AMOUNTS APPEAR TO BE RANGING
FROM A FEW TENTHS IN THE WEST TO A 1/2 TO AROUND AN INCH IN THE
EAST.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
SHEAR AXIS SHIFTS EAST AND SURFACE HIGH WORKS IN TUESDAY...SO
QUIET PERIOD EXPECTED. ON WEDNESDAY THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST WITH NEXT
LOW DRAWING CLOSER. ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH LOW
POSITION INTO SRN IA VCNTY BY DAYS END. SO EXPECTING A RETURN
SOUTHERLY OR SOUTHEAST FLOW TO EVOLVE. THIS ADVECTS MILDER 850/925
TEMPS INTO SRN WI. PER COLLAB WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES DECIDED TO
NUDGE TEMPS UP A BIT IN RESPONSE TO THIS AND LOW LEVEL RH PROGS
KEEPING BETTER RH WEST OF HERE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW
COMBO OF WARM ADVECTION AND UPPER DYNAMICS ARRIVE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED SOUTH ON LOW TRACK MORE IN LINE WITH
THE GEM/GFS SOLUTIONS. THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH THE
THERMAL FIELDS WHICH POINTS TOWARDS A POSSIBLE MIXY SCENARIO FOR
A TIME UNTIL LOW PASSES AND ISOTHERMS COLLAPSE. BEST POTENTIAL FOR
A MIX LOOKS TO BE PRIOR TO 6Z SO WENT ALL SNOW AFTER THAT. STILL
SEVERAL DAYS OUT SO DETAILS ON PRECIP TYPE LIKELY TO WAFFLE ESP IF
A MORE SOUTHWARD TRACK REMOVES THE MIX POTENTIAL.

FRIDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
UPPER FLOW APPEARS TO TAKE ON A BROAD ANTICYCLONIC LOOK WITH
SURFACE RIDGE NUDGING INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF OF THE
DEPARTED LOW FROM THURSDAY. GFS MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN ECMWF ON COLD
PUSH.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW
LARGE DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH RESPECT TO BRINGING IN
A POTENTIAL ARCTIC SURGE. THE ECMWF BRINGS A STRONGER LOW TO OUR
NORTHEAST AND EAST WITH BIG TIME COLD ADVECTION FRIDAY NIGHT.
MEANWHILE THE GFS SHOWS A QUIET HIGH WITH SLOW MOVING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN BY LATER SATURDAY...WITH SNOW
CHANCES IN CONJUNCTION WITH THIS BOUNDARY. SNOWFALL NOT LOOKING
LIKE A BIG DEAL IN EITHER SCENARIO BUT MASSIVE DIFFERENCES IN THE
THERMAL FIELDS. 925 TEMPS FRO THE ECMWF -20 TO -25 CELSIUS SATURDAY
WITH A BLUSTERY NW WIND. MEANWHILE THE GFS SHOWS A RELATIVELY
MILDER SOUTHWEST WIND WITH 925 TEMPS OF -6 TO -8C. NEEDLESS TO SAY
WILL BE STICKING WITH THE SUPERBLEND GUID FOR NOW.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...THERE MAY BE PERIODS OF VERY LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES OVER SRN WI THIS MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY ACROSS
IA AND IL. LITTLE TO NO VSBY RESTRICTIONS WITH THE SNOW IS EXPECTED.
OTHERWISE CIGS WILL BE AROUND 1 KFT WITH DRYING IN THE AFTERNOON
LEADING TO FEW-SCT STRATUS FOR KMSN WHILE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS WILL
MAINTAIN CIGS OF 1.0-3.0 KFT FOR THE SE WI TAF SITES INTO THE
EVENING AND POSSIBLY OVERNIGHT.

MARINE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR BRISK NELY WINDS AND
HIGH WAVES INTO THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM IA INTO
SRN IL. HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS WILL BUILD OVER LAKE MI FOR
LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WITH LESSER WAVES BY LATE EVENING.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR LMZ644>646.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DDV
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...GEHRING
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...COLLAR





000
FXUS63 KMKX 251537 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
937 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.UPDATE...

LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO WIND DOWN FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THIS
MORNING...PUSHING SOUTH OF THE WI/IL STATE LINE BY AFTERNOON.
COULD SEE A LITTLE LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN THE EAST DEVELOP BY LATE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. LOOKS PRETTY LIGHT THOUGH...WITH
BORDERLINE SFC-850 MB DELTA T VALUES AND SATURATION ONLY UP TO
ABOUT 3 KFT. MAY JUST MENTION FLURRIES.

MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE
CLOUDS ALONG WITH FALLING TEMPS ALOFT WILL KEEP SURFACE TEMPS
NEARLY STEADY INTO MID-AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO WIND DOWN FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THIS
MORNING...PUSHING SOUTH OF THE WI/IL STATE LINE BY AFTERNOON.
COULD SEE A LITTLE LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN THE EAST DEVELOP BY LATE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. LOOKS PRETTY LIGHT THOUGH AND MAY ONLY
BE FLURRIES.

SHOULD SEE MAINLY MVFR CIGS INTO THIS EVENING. SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH CIGS THEN LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...AS THERE IS A MIX
OF CONDITIONS UPSTREAM AND MODEL SOUNDINGS NOT IN AGREEMENT. IF
CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR FOR A TIME...WILL LIKELY SEE A RETURN
TO MVFR LATE MONDAY MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE
BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW. SNOW AMOUNTS LOOK GENERALLY
UNDER AN INCH THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL TRACK TO SRN IL TODAY
AND ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TNT. THIS SRN TRACK HAS RESULTED IN
ONLY AREAS OF VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES. THE SW HALF OF THE CWA
WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW THIS AM WITH ONLY SMALL
CHANCES ELSEWHERE. THE NELY WINDS WILL BRING VERY DRY AIR INTO THE
REGION ESPECIALLY AT 850-700 MB LAYER...THUS LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS WILL
ONLY BE CAPABLE OF FLURRIES THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. THE DRYING
SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AWAY FROM FAR SE WI
FOR THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S DURING
THE MORNING ON BRISK NELY WINDS AND COLD ADVECTION. THEY WILL HOLD
INTO THE AFTERNOON...THEN DROPPING TOWARD EVENING. LAKE EFFECT
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE MUCH OF THE NIGHT OVER FAR SE WI AND
WILL THEN BE REPLACED BY HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT AS WARM
ADVECTION ALOFT MOVES INTO THE REGION. TEMPS SHOULD BE ABLE TO DROP
INTO THE LOWER TO MID TEENS AWAY FROM THE LAKE BEFORE THE HIGH
CLOUDS ARRIVE DURING THE OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
SURFACE/850 TROUGH AXIS SWINGS ACROSS THE STATE. SWATH OF 850
MILLIBAR WARM AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. THE NAM
IS SLOWEST TO SPREAD QPF INTO THE AREA. SUSTAINED FORCING LOOKS
POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING DUE TO SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE WEAK
LOW...THUS MAINTAINING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. POTENTIAL FOR SOME
FREEZING DRIZZLE AS WELL DUE TO LOSS OF SATURATION WITHIN THE
DENDRIDIC GROWTH ZONE. UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY IS MOSTLY OF THE
SHEARED VARIETY. PROXIMITY OF SURFACE TROUGH AND SHEAR AXIS KEEPS
POPS GOING INTO MONDAY EVENING. SNOW AMOUNTS APPEAR TO BE RANGING
FROM A FEW TENTHS IN THE WEST TO A 1/2 TO AROUND AN INCH IN THE
EAST.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
SHEAR AXIS SHIFTS EAST AND SURFACE HIGH WORKS IN TUESDAY...SO
QUIET PERIOD EXPECTED. ON WEDNESDAY THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST WITH NEXT
LOW DRAWING CLOSER. ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH LOW
POSITION INTO SRN IA VCNTY BY DAYS END. SO EXPECTING A RETURN
SOUTHERLY OR SOUTHEAST FLOW TO EVOLVE. THIS ADVECTS MILDER 850/925
TEMPS INTO SRN WI. PER COLLAB WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES DECIDED TO
NUDGE TEMPS UP A BIT IN RESPONSE TO THIS AND LOW LEVEL RH PROGS
KEEPING BETTER RH WEST OF HERE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW
COMBO OF WARM ADVECTION AND UPPER DYNAMICS ARRIVE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED SOUTH ON LOW TRACK MORE IN LINE WITH
THE GEM/GFS SOLUTIONS. THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH THE
THERMAL FIELDS WHICH POINTS TOWARDS A POSSIBLE MIXY SCENARIO FOR
A TIME UNTIL LOW PASSES AND ISOTHERMS COLLAPSE. BEST POTENTIAL FOR
A MIX LOOKS TO BE PRIOR TO 6Z SO WENT ALL SNOW AFTER THAT. STILL
SEVERAL DAYS OUT SO DETAILS ON PRECIP TYPE LIKELY TO WAFFLE ESP IF
A MORE SOUTHWARD TRACK REMOVES THE MIX POTENTIAL.

FRIDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
UPPER FLOW APPEARS TO TAKE ON A BROAD ANTICYCLONIC LOOK WITH
SURFACE RIDGE NUDGING INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF OF THE
DEPARTED LOW FROM THURSDAY. GFS MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN ECMWF ON COLD
PUSH.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW
LARGE DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH RESPECT TO BRINGING IN
A POTENTIAL ARCTIC SURGE. THE ECMWF BRINGS A STRONGER LOW TO OUR
NORTHEAST AND EAST WITH BIG TIME COLD ADVECTION FRIDAY NIGHT.
MEANWHILE THE GFS SHOWS A QUIET HIGH WITH SLOW MOVING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN BY LATER SATURDAY...WITH SNOW
CHANCES IN CONJUNCTION WITH THIS BOUNDARY. SNOWFALL NOT LOOKING
LIKE A BIG DEAL IN EITHER SCENARIO BUT MASSIVE DIFFERENCES IN THE
THERMAL FIELDS. 925 TEMPS FRO THE ECMWF -20 TO -25 CELSIUS SATURDAY
WITH A BLUSTERY NW WIND. MEANWHILE THE GFS SHOWS A RELATIVELY
MILDER SOUTHWEST WIND WITH 925 TEMPS OF -6 TO -8C. NEEDLESS TO SAY
WILL BE STICKING WITH THE SUPERBLEND GUID FOR NOW.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...THERE MAY BE PERIODS OF VERY LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES OVER SRN WI THIS MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY ACROSS
IA AND IL. LITTLE TO NO VSBY RESTRICTIONS WITH THE SNOW IS EXPECTED.
OTHERWISE CIGS WILL BE AROUND 1 KFT WITH DRYING IN THE AFTERNOON
LEADING TO FEW-SCT STRATUS FOR KMSN WHILE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS WILL
MAINTAIN CIGS OF 1.0-3.0 KFT FOR THE SE WI TAF SITES INTO THE
EVENING AND POSSIBLY OVERNIGHT.

MARINE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR BRISK NELY WINDS AND
HIGH WAVES INTO THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM IA INTO
SRN IL. HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS WILL BUILD OVER LAKE MI FOR
LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WITH LESSER WAVES BY LATE EVENING.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR LMZ644>646.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DDV
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...GEHRING
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...COLLAR




000
FXUS63 KMKX 250928
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
328 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL TRACK TO SRN IL TODAY
AND ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TNT. THIS SRN TRACK HAS RESULTED IN
ONLY AREAS OF VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES. THE SW HALF OF THE CWA
WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW THIS AM WITH ONLY SMALL
CHANCES ELSEWHERE. THE NELY WINDS WILL BRING VERY DRY AIR INTO THE
REGION ESPECIALLY AT 850-700 MB LAYER...THUS LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS WILL
ONLY BE CAPABLE OF FLURRIES THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. THE DRYING
SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AWAY FROM FAR SE WI
FOR THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S DURING
THE MORNING ON BRISK NELY WINDS AND COLD ADVECTION. THEY WILL HOLD
INTO THE AFTERNOON...THEN DROPPING TOWARD EVENING. LAKE EFFECT
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE MUCH OF THE NIGHT OVER FAR SE WI AND
WILL THEN BE REPLACED BY HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT AS WARM
ADVECTION ALOFT MOVES INTO THE REGION. TEMPS SHOULD BE ABLE TO DROP
INTO THE LOWER TO MID TEENS AWAY FROM THE LAKE BEFORE THE HIGH
CLOUDS ARRIVE DURING THE OVERNIGHT.

.MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
SURFACE/850 TROUGH AXIS SWINGS ACROSS THE STATE. SWATH OF 850
MILLIBAR WARM AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. THE NAM
IS SLOWEST TO SPREAD QPF INTO THE AREA. SUSTAINED FORCING LOOKS
POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING DUE TO SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE WEAK
LOW...THUS MAINTAINING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. POTENTIAL FOR SOME
FREEZING DRIZZLE AS WELL DUE TO LOSS OF SATURATION WITHIN THE
DENDRIDIC GROWTH ZONE. UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY IS MOSTLY OF THE
SHEARED VARIETY. PROXIMITY OF SURFACE TROUGH AND SHEAR AXIS KEEPS
POPS GOING INTO MONDAY EVENING. SNOW AMOUNTS APPEAR TO BE RANGING
FROM A FEW TENTHS IN THE WEST TO A 1/2 TO AROUND AN INCH IN THE
EAST.

.TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
SHEAR AXIS SHIFTS EAST AND SURFACE HIGH WORKS IN TUESDAY...SO
QUIET PERIOD EXPECTED. ON WEDNESDAY THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST WITH NEXT
LOW DRAWING CLOSER. ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH LOW
POSITION INTO SRN IA VCNTY BY DAYS END. SO EXPECTING A RETURN
SOUTHERLY OR SOUTHEAST FLOW TO EVOLVE. THIS ADVECTS MILDER 850/925
TEMPS INTO SRN WI. PER COLLAB WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES DECIDED TO
NUDGE TEMPS UP A BIT IN RESPONSE TO THIS AND LOW LEVEL RH PROGS
KEEPING BETTER RH WEST OF HERE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW
COMBO OF WARM ADVECTION AND UPPER DYNAMICS ARRIVE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED SOUTH ON LOW TRACK MORE IN LINE WITH
THE GEM/GFS SOLUTIONS. THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH THE
THERMAL FIELDS WHICH POINTS TOWARDS A POSSIBLE MIXY SCENARIO FOR
A TIME UNTIL LOW PASSES AND ISOTHERMS COLLAPSE. BEST POTENTIAL FOR
A MIX LOOKS TO BE PRIOR TO 6Z SO WENT ALL SNOW AFTER THAT. STILL
SEVERAL DAYS OUT SO DETAILS ON PRECIP TYPE LIKELY TO WAFFLE ESP IF
A MORE SOUTHWARD TRACK REMOVES THE MIX POTENTIAL.

.FRIDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
UPPER FLOW APPEARS TO TAKE ON A BROAD ANTICYCLONIC LOOK WITH
SURFACE RIDGE NUDGING INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF OF THE
DEPARTED LOW FROM THURSDAY. GFS MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN ECMWF ON COLD
PUSH.

.FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW
LARGE DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH RESPECT TO BRINGING IN
A POTENTIAL ARCTIC SURGE. THE ECMWF BRINGS A STRONGER LOW TO OUR
NORTHEAST AND EAST WITH BIG TIME COLD ADVECTION FRIDAY NIGHT.
MEANWHILE THE GFS SHOWS A QUIET HIGH WITH SLOW MOVING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN BY LATER SATURDAY...WITH SNOW
CHANCES IN CONJUNCTION WITH THIS BOUNDARY. SNOWFALL NOT LOOKING
LIKE A BIG DEAL IN EITHER SCENARIO BUT MASSIVE DIFFERENCES IN THE
THERMAL FIELDS. 925 TEMPS FRO THE ECMWF -20 TO -25 CELSIUS SATURDAY
WITH A BLUSTERY NW WIND. MEANWHILE THE GFS SHOWS A RELATIVELY
MILDER SOUTHWEST WIND WITH 925 TEMPS OF -6 TO -8C. NEEDLESS TO SAY
WILL BE STICKING WITH THE SUPERBLEND GUID FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...THERE MAY BE PERIODS OF VERY LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES OVER SRN WI THIS MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY ACROSS
IA AND IL. LITTLE TO NO VSBY RESTRICTIONS WITH THE SNOW IS EXPECTED.
OTHERWISE CIGS WILL BE AROUND 1 KFT WITH DRYING IN THE AFTERNOON
LEADING TO FEW-SCT STRATUS FOR KMSN WHILE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS WILL
MAINTAIN CIGS OF 1.0-3.0 KFT FOR THE SE WI TAF SITES INTO THE
EVENING AND POSSIBLY OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR BRISK NELY WINDS AND
HIGH WAVES INTO THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM IA INTO
SRN IL. HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS WILL BUILD OVER LAKE MI FOR
LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WITH LESSER WAVES BY LATE EVENING.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR LMZ644>646.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643.

&&

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...GEHRING
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...COLLAR




000
FXUS63 KMKX 250928
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
328 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL TRACK TO SRN IL TODAY
AND ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TNT. THIS SRN TRACK HAS RESULTED IN
ONLY AREAS OF VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES. THE SW HALF OF THE CWA
WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW THIS AM WITH ONLY SMALL
CHANCES ELSEWHERE. THE NELY WINDS WILL BRING VERY DRY AIR INTO THE
REGION ESPECIALLY AT 850-700 MB LAYER...THUS LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS WILL
ONLY BE CAPABLE OF FLURRIES THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. THE DRYING
SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AWAY FROM FAR SE WI
FOR THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S DURING
THE MORNING ON BRISK NELY WINDS AND COLD ADVECTION. THEY WILL HOLD
INTO THE AFTERNOON...THEN DROPPING TOWARD EVENING. LAKE EFFECT
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE MUCH OF THE NIGHT OVER FAR SE WI AND
WILL THEN BE REPLACED BY HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT AS WARM
ADVECTION ALOFT MOVES INTO THE REGION. TEMPS SHOULD BE ABLE TO DROP
INTO THE LOWER TO MID TEENS AWAY FROM THE LAKE BEFORE THE HIGH
CLOUDS ARRIVE DURING THE OVERNIGHT.

.MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
SURFACE/850 TROUGH AXIS SWINGS ACROSS THE STATE. SWATH OF 850
MILLIBAR WARM AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. THE NAM
IS SLOWEST TO SPREAD QPF INTO THE AREA. SUSTAINED FORCING LOOKS
POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING DUE TO SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE WEAK
LOW...THUS MAINTAINING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. POTENTIAL FOR SOME
FREEZING DRIZZLE AS WELL DUE TO LOSS OF SATURATION WITHIN THE
DENDRIDIC GROWTH ZONE. UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY IS MOSTLY OF THE
SHEARED VARIETY. PROXIMITY OF SURFACE TROUGH AND SHEAR AXIS KEEPS
POPS GOING INTO MONDAY EVENING. SNOW AMOUNTS APPEAR TO BE RANGING
FROM A FEW TENTHS IN THE WEST TO A 1/2 TO AROUND AN INCH IN THE
EAST.

.TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
SHEAR AXIS SHIFTS EAST AND SURFACE HIGH WORKS IN TUESDAY...SO
QUIET PERIOD EXPECTED. ON WEDNESDAY THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST WITH NEXT
LOW DRAWING CLOSER. ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH LOW
POSITION INTO SRN IA VCNTY BY DAYS END. SO EXPECTING A RETURN
SOUTHERLY OR SOUTHEAST FLOW TO EVOLVE. THIS ADVECTS MILDER 850/925
TEMPS INTO SRN WI. PER COLLAB WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES DECIDED TO
NUDGE TEMPS UP A BIT IN RESPONSE TO THIS AND LOW LEVEL RH PROGS
KEEPING BETTER RH WEST OF HERE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW
COMBO OF WARM ADVECTION AND UPPER DYNAMICS ARRIVE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED SOUTH ON LOW TRACK MORE IN LINE WITH
THE GEM/GFS SOLUTIONS. THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH THE
THERMAL FIELDS WHICH POINTS TOWARDS A POSSIBLE MIXY SCENARIO FOR
A TIME UNTIL LOW PASSES AND ISOTHERMS COLLAPSE. BEST POTENTIAL FOR
A MIX LOOKS TO BE PRIOR TO 6Z SO WENT ALL SNOW AFTER THAT. STILL
SEVERAL DAYS OUT SO DETAILS ON PRECIP TYPE LIKELY TO WAFFLE ESP IF
A MORE SOUTHWARD TRACK REMOVES THE MIX POTENTIAL.

.FRIDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
UPPER FLOW APPEARS TO TAKE ON A BROAD ANTICYCLONIC LOOK WITH
SURFACE RIDGE NUDGING INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF OF THE
DEPARTED LOW FROM THURSDAY. GFS MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN ECMWF ON COLD
PUSH.

.FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW
LARGE DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH RESPECT TO BRINGING IN
A POTENTIAL ARCTIC SURGE. THE ECMWF BRINGS A STRONGER LOW TO OUR
NORTHEAST AND EAST WITH BIG TIME COLD ADVECTION FRIDAY NIGHT.
MEANWHILE THE GFS SHOWS A QUIET HIGH WITH SLOW MOVING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN BY LATER SATURDAY...WITH SNOW
CHANCES IN CONJUNCTION WITH THIS BOUNDARY. SNOWFALL NOT LOOKING
LIKE A BIG DEAL IN EITHER SCENARIO BUT MASSIVE DIFFERENCES IN THE
THERMAL FIELDS. 925 TEMPS FRO THE ECMWF -20 TO -25 CELSIUS SATURDAY
WITH A BLUSTERY NW WIND. MEANWHILE THE GFS SHOWS A RELATIVELY
MILDER SOUTHWEST WIND WITH 925 TEMPS OF -6 TO -8C. NEEDLESS TO SAY
WILL BE STICKING WITH THE SUPERBLEND GUID FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...THERE MAY BE PERIODS OF VERY LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES OVER SRN WI THIS MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY ACROSS
IA AND IL. LITTLE TO NO VSBY RESTRICTIONS WITH THE SNOW IS EXPECTED.
OTHERWISE CIGS WILL BE AROUND 1 KFT WITH DRYING IN THE AFTERNOON
LEADING TO FEW-SCT STRATUS FOR KMSN WHILE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS WILL
MAINTAIN CIGS OF 1.0-3.0 KFT FOR THE SE WI TAF SITES INTO THE
EVENING AND POSSIBLY OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR BRISK NELY WINDS AND
HIGH WAVES INTO THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM IA INTO
SRN IL. HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS WILL BUILD OVER LAKE MI FOR
LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WITH LESSER WAVES BY LATE EVENING.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR LMZ644>646.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643.

&&

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...GEHRING
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...COLLAR





000
FXUS63 KMKX 250237
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
837 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

.UPDATE...

00Z NAM CONTINUES THE TREND OF TAKING THE CLIPPER FARTHER SOUTH.
NAM HAS LESS SNOW...SO WILL TRIM FORECAST AMOUNTS EVEN
MORE...ALTHOUGH NOT QUITE AS MUCH AS THE LATEST HRRR WHICH KEEPS
ALMOST ALL SNOW SOUTH OF THE ILLINOIS BORDER. ALSO WITH NORTHEAST
WINDS EXPECT SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SUNDAY. INVERSION LOWERS
TO 25 HUNDRED FEET SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SO LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
ACCUMULATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...

EXPECT MVFR CIGS/VSBYS SPREAD SOUTHEAST WITH AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW
FROM THE UPSTREAM CLIPPER TYPE LOW. THE LOW SHOULD TRACK ACROSS
CENTRAL IOWA TO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ILLINOIS SUNDAY MORNING. SOME
POCKETS OF IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN INTO TONIGHT...THEN BECOME GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTHEAST BY
12Z SUNDAY. THESE WINDS WILL LINGER ON SUNDAY...WITH GUSTS TO 25
KNOTS POSSIBLE. ALSO WITH NORTHEAST WINDS EXPECT SOME LIGHT LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SUNDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015/

TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

EXPECT MIDDLE TO HIGH CLOUDS TO FILL BACK IN ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN
COUNTIES THAT HAVE SEEN SOME CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON. LOW CLOUDS
WILL THEN FILL IN THIS AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. LOW CLOUDS
SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA INTO SUNDAY.

MODELS ARE FINALLY IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE
LOW AND 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION. THEY BRING IT
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA TO FAR NORTHEAST MISSOURI
TONIGHT...THEN INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY ON SUNDAY. THE BULK OF THE 500
MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH MISSES THE AREA TO THE SOUTHWEST DURING THIS
TIME.

ENOUGH LOW LEVEL Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE CROSSES THE AREA TO CONTINUE
THE HIGHER END POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. LOWERED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS A BIT ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE
BEST UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION TO THE SOUTHWEST.

AMOUNTS OF 1/2 INCH TOWARD SHEBOYGAN...TO AROUND 1 INCH IN
MADISON/MILWAUKEE/KENOSHA...TO AROUND 2 INCHES IN DARLINGTON ARE
EXPECTED. NO LAKE ENHANCEMENT IS EXPECTED...AS DELTA T VALUES ARE
NOT FAVORABLE SUNDAY...WITH VERY DRY AIR ABOVE THE INVERSION
DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO
THE 20S IN MOST OF THE AREA...WITH NEARLY STEADY TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH

THE 12Z 12KM NAM HAS DONE AWAY WITH THE LAKE-EFFECT POTENTIAL WITH
ONSHORE 1000-900MB CONVERGENCE DISSIPATING RAPIDLY EARLY SUNDAY
EVENING AS GRADIENT EASES WITH CLIPPER LOW MOVING AWAY TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. 925 MB DIP TO
THEIR LOWEST POINT AROUND 06Z...THEN STEADY OUT AND BEGIN TO RISE
TOWARDS MORNING WITH DEVELOPING SW FLOW AHEAD OF NEXT SHORT WAVE.
SHOULD SEE LOWS OF 10 TO 15 AROUND MIDNIGHT...THEN REMAIN STEADY.
LAKESHORE LOCATIONS WILL SEE READINGS HOLD UP HIGHER WITH RELATIVELY
WARMER ONSHORE FLOW.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF NEXT SHORT WAVE IN THE NWLY FLOW BRINGS
SLIGHT CHANCES TO NWRN PORTIONS OF CWA MONDAY MORNING...AND
OVERSPREADS ALL OF SRN WI MONDAY AFTERNOON. TRACK OF WAVE AND
SURFACE LOW KEEP BETTER FORCING...DEEP LAYER Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE/FRONTOGENETIC RESPONSE...AND DEEP MOISTURE TO THE
NORTHEAST.

INITIAL PCPN SHOULD BE ALL LIGHT SNOW WITH A SATURATED DENDRITE
GROWTH ZONE...TOUGH AMOUNTS WILL BE LIMITED BY DRY AIR BELOW 5K
FT...THEN MID-LEVELS DRY OUT WITH THE LOWER LAYERS SATURATING...BUT
OUT OF THE DENDRITE GROWTH ZONE. EXPECT A TRANSITION TO FREEZING
RAIN WHEN CRYSTALS ARE LOST. NOT MUCH ICE ACCUMULATION WITH PCPN
DIMINISHING AS LOW SHEARS OUT AND IS ABSORBED BY DEEPENING EAST
COAST LOW...AND COLUMN DRIES EARLY MONDAY EVENING.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

A DRY PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF TEMPERATURE ADVECTION AS 925-850 MB BAROCLINIC ZONES REMAIN
PARALLEL TO THE FLOW. LOOKING FOR HIGHS IN THE MID 30S AND LOWS IN
THE LOW 20S WITH TEENS IN THE FAR NORTH.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT REGION MOVES IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
AS A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE MERGES WITH A WAVE THAT TRACKS FROM
THE SRN CALIFORNIA COAST TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MODELS IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT IN TAKING A BROAD LEE TROUGH IN THE PLAINS AND CONSOLIDATE
IT INTO A RAPIDLY DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER NRN HALF OF IL BY
THURSDAY MORNING. THERMAL STRUCTURE INDICATES SRN CWA WILL SEE A
RAIN SNOW MIX WITH MAINLY LIGHT SNOW NORTHERN HALF. QPF AMOUNTS ARE
LOW WITH QPF MAX STAYING SOUTH CLOSER TOT HE LOW CENTER.


MODELS DIFFER ON WHETHER OR NOT TO BRING A SHORT WAVE INTO THE
REGION SATURDAY. 12Z ECMWF BRINGS A WAVE IN SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING FOLLOWED BY SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON
WHILE GFS KEEPS THE WAVE OVER SRN CANADA AND DELAYS INTRUSION OF
ARCTIC AIR.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

EXPECT IFR CEILINGS TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS TAF SITES BY EARLY THIS
EVENING. THESE CEILINGS WILL LINGER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...BECOMING
MVFR LATER IN THE DAY. WEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN INTO
TONIGHT...THEN BECOME GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTHEAST BY 12Z SUNDAY.
THESE WINDS WILL LINGER ON SUNDAY...WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE.

LIGHT SNOW WITH 1 MILE VISIBILITIES WILL SPREAD INTO MADISON BY 09Z
SUNDAY...AND THE EASTERN SITES BY 11Z SUNDAY. THE LIGHT SNOW WILL
LINGER THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING...ENDING BETWEEN 16Z TO 18Z
SUNDAY. SNOWFALL RATES OF 0.1 TO 0.2 INCHES PER HOUR ARE EXPECTED.
TOTAL AMOUNTS OF AROUND 1 INCH ARE EXPECTED.

MARINE...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY EVENING
ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN. A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP DURING THIS TIME...RESULTING IN GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS. GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES...WITH HIGH
WAVES OF 4 TO 6 FEET. FREEZING SPRAY IS ANTICIPATED WITH THE
EXPECTED WINDS AND WAVES.

GUSTY WINDS...HIGH WAVES AND SOME FREEZING SPRAY ARE POSSIBLE
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES BY TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST SUNDAY
     NIGHT FOR LMZ644>646.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 PM CST SUNDAY
     FOR LMZ643.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HENTZ
TONIGHT/SUNDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...WOOD
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...REM





000
FXUS63 KMKX 250237
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
837 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

.UPDATE...

00Z NAM CONTINUES THE TREND OF TAKING THE CLIPPER FARTHER SOUTH.
NAM HAS LESS SNOW...SO WILL TRIM FORECAST AMOUNTS EVEN
MORE...ALTHOUGH NOT QUITE AS MUCH AS THE LATEST HRRR WHICH KEEPS
ALMOST ALL SNOW SOUTH OF THE ILLINOIS BORDER. ALSO WITH NORTHEAST
WINDS EXPECT SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SUNDAY. INVERSION LOWERS
TO 25 HUNDRED FEET SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SO LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
ACCUMULATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...

EXPECT MVFR CIGS/VSBYS SPREAD SOUTHEAST WITH AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW
FROM THE UPSTREAM CLIPPER TYPE LOW. THE LOW SHOULD TRACK ACROSS
CENTRAL IOWA TO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ILLINOIS SUNDAY MORNING. SOME
POCKETS OF IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN INTO TONIGHT...THEN BECOME GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTHEAST BY
12Z SUNDAY. THESE WINDS WILL LINGER ON SUNDAY...WITH GUSTS TO 25
KNOTS POSSIBLE. ALSO WITH NORTHEAST WINDS EXPECT SOME LIGHT LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SUNDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015/

TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

EXPECT MIDDLE TO HIGH CLOUDS TO FILL BACK IN ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN
COUNTIES THAT HAVE SEEN SOME CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON. LOW CLOUDS
WILL THEN FILL IN THIS AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. LOW CLOUDS
SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA INTO SUNDAY.

MODELS ARE FINALLY IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE
LOW AND 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION. THEY BRING IT
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA TO FAR NORTHEAST MISSOURI
TONIGHT...THEN INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY ON SUNDAY. THE BULK OF THE 500
MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH MISSES THE AREA TO THE SOUTHWEST DURING THIS
TIME.

ENOUGH LOW LEVEL Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE CROSSES THE AREA TO CONTINUE
THE HIGHER END POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. LOWERED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS A BIT ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE
BEST UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION TO THE SOUTHWEST.

AMOUNTS OF 1/2 INCH TOWARD SHEBOYGAN...TO AROUND 1 INCH IN
MADISON/MILWAUKEE/KENOSHA...TO AROUND 2 INCHES IN DARLINGTON ARE
EXPECTED. NO LAKE ENHANCEMENT IS EXPECTED...AS DELTA T VALUES ARE
NOT FAVORABLE SUNDAY...WITH VERY DRY AIR ABOVE THE INVERSION
DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO
THE 20S IN MOST OF THE AREA...WITH NEARLY STEADY TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH

THE 12Z 12KM NAM HAS DONE AWAY WITH THE LAKE-EFFECT POTENTIAL WITH
ONSHORE 1000-900MB CONVERGENCE DISSIPATING RAPIDLY EARLY SUNDAY
EVENING AS GRADIENT EASES WITH CLIPPER LOW MOVING AWAY TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. 925 MB DIP TO
THEIR LOWEST POINT AROUND 06Z...THEN STEADY OUT AND BEGIN TO RISE
TOWARDS MORNING WITH DEVELOPING SW FLOW AHEAD OF NEXT SHORT WAVE.
SHOULD SEE LOWS OF 10 TO 15 AROUND MIDNIGHT...THEN REMAIN STEADY.
LAKESHORE LOCATIONS WILL SEE READINGS HOLD UP HIGHER WITH RELATIVELY
WARMER ONSHORE FLOW.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF NEXT SHORT WAVE IN THE NWLY FLOW BRINGS
SLIGHT CHANCES TO NWRN PORTIONS OF CWA MONDAY MORNING...AND
OVERSPREADS ALL OF SRN WI MONDAY AFTERNOON. TRACK OF WAVE AND
SURFACE LOW KEEP BETTER FORCING...DEEP LAYER Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE/FRONTOGENETIC RESPONSE...AND DEEP MOISTURE TO THE
NORTHEAST.

INITIAL PCPN SHOULD BE ALL LIGHT SNOW WITH A SATURATED DENDRITE
GROWTH ZONE...TOUGH AMOUNTS WILL BE LIMITED BY DRY AIR BELOW 5K
FT...THEN MID-LEVELS DRY OUT WITH THE LOWER LAYERS SATURATING...BUT
OUT OF THE DENDRITE GROWTH ZONE. EXPECT A TRANSITION TO FREEZING
RAIN WHEN CRYSTALS ARE LOST. NOT MUCH ICE ACCUMULATION WITH PCPN
DIMINISHING AS LOW SHEARS OUT AND IS ABSORBED BY DEEPENING EAST
COAST LOW...AND COLUMN DRIES EARLY MONDAY EVENING.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

A DRY PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF TEMPERATURE ADVECTION AS 925-850 MB BAROCLINIC ZONES REMAIN
PARALLEL TO THE FLOW. LOOKING FOR HIGHS IN THE MID 30S AND LOWS IN
THE LOW 20S WITH TEENS IN THE FAR NORTH.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT REGION MOVES IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
AS A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE MERGES WITH A WAVE THAT TRACKS FROM
THE SRN CALIFORNIA COAST TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MODELS IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT IN TAKING A BROAD LEE TROUGH IN THE PLAINS AND CONSOLIDATE
IT INTO A RAPIDLY DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER NRN HALF OF IL BY
THURSDAY MORNING. THERMAL STRUCTURE INDICATES SRN CWA WILL SEE A
RAIN SNOW MIX WITH MAINLY LIGHT SNOW NORTHERN HALF. QPF AMOUNTS ARE
LOW WITH QPF MAX STAYING SOUTH CLOSER TOT HE LOW CENTER.


MODELS DIFFER ON WHETHER OR NOT TO BRING A SHORT WAVE INTO THE
REGION SATURDAY. 12Z ECMWF BRINGS A WAVE IN SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING FOLLOWED BY SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON
WHILE GFS KEEPS THE WAVE OVER SRN CANADA AND DELAYS INTRUSION OF
ARCTIC AIR.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

EXPECT IFR CEILINGS TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS TAF SITES BY EARLY THIS
EVENING. THESE CEILINGS WILL LINGER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...BECOMING
MVFR LATER IN THE DAY. WEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN INTO
TONIGHT...THEN BECOME GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTHEAST BY 12Z SUNDAY.
THESE WINDS WILL LINGER ON SUNDAY...WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE.

LIGHT SNOW WITH 1 MILE VISIBILITIES WILL SPREAD INTO MADISON BY 09Z
SUNDAY...AND THE EASTERN SITES BY 11Z SUNDAY. THE LIGHT SNOW WILL
LINGER THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING...ENDING BETWEEN 16Z TO 18Z
SUNDAY. SNOWFALL RATES OF 0.1 TO 0.2 INCHES PER HOUR ARE EXPECTED.
TOTAL AMOUNTS OF AROUND 1 INCH ARE EXPECTED.

MARINE...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY EVENING
ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN. A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP DURING THIS TIME...RESULTING IN GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS. GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES...WITH HIGH
WAVES OF 4 TO 6 FEET. FREEZING SPRAY IS ANTICIPATED WITH THE
EXPECTED WINDS AND WAVES.

GUSTY WINDS...HIGH WAVES AND SOME FREEZING SPRAY ARE POSSIBLE
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES BY TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST SUNDAY
     NIGHT FOR LMZ644>646.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 PM CST SUNDAY
     FOR LMZ643.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HENTZ
TONIGHT/SUNDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...WOOD
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...REM




000
FXUS63 KMKX 242131
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
331 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

.TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

EXPECT MIDDLE TO HIGH CLOUDS TO FILL BACK IN ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN
COUNTIES THAT HAVE SEEN SOME CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON. LOW CLOUDS
WILL THEN FILL IN THIS AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. LOW CLOUDS
SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA INTO SUNDAY.

MODELS ARE FINALLY IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE
LOW AND 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION. THEY BRING IT
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA TO FAR NORTHEAST MISSOURI
TONIGHT...THEN INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY ON SUNDAY. THE BULK OF THE 500
MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH MISSES THE AREA TO THE SOUTHWEST DURING THIS
TIME.

ENOUGH LOW LEVEL Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE CROSSES THE AREA TO CONTINUE
THE HIGHER END POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. LOWERED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS A BIT ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE
BEST UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION TO THE SOUTHWEST.

AMOUNTS OF 1/2 INCH TOWARD SHEBOYGAN...TO AROUND 1 INCH IN
MADISON/MILWAUKEE/KENOSHA...TO AROUND 2 INCHES IN DARLINGTON ARE
EXPECTED. NO LAKE ENHANCEMENT IS EXPECTED...AS DELTA T VALUES ARE
NOT FAVORABLE SUNDAY...WITH VERY DRY AIR ABOVE THE INVERSION
DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO
THE 20S IN MOST OF THE AREA...WITH NEARLY STEADY TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY.

.SHORT TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH

THE 12Z 12KM NAM HAS DONE AWAY WITH THE LAKE-EFFECT POTENTIAL WITH
ONSHORE 1000-900MB CONVERGENCE DISSIPATING RAPIDLY EARLY SUNDAY
EVENING AS GRADIENT EASES WITH CLIPPER LOW MOVING AWAY TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. 925 MB DIP TO
THEIR LOWEST POINT AROUND 06Z...THEN STEADY OUT AND BEGIN TO RISE
TOWARDS MORNING WITH DEVELOPING SW FLOW AHEAD OF NEXT SHORT WAVE.
SHOULD SEE LOWS OF 10 TO 15 AROUND MIDNIGHT...THEN REMAIN STEADY.
LAKESHORE LOCATIONS WILL SEE READINGS HOLD UP HIGHER WITH RELATIVELY
WARMER ONSHORE FLOW.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF NEXT SHORT WAVE IN THE NWLY FLOW BRINGS
SLIGHT CHANCES TO NWRN PORTIONS OF CWA MONDAY MORNING...AND
OVERSPREADS ALL OF SRN WI MONDAY AFTERNOON. TRACK OF WAVE AND
SURFACE LOW KEEP BETTER FORCING...DEEP LAYER Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE/FRONTOGENETIC RESPONSE...AND DEEP MOISTURE TO THE
NORTHEAST.

INITIAL PCPN SHOULD BE ALL LIGHT SNOW WITH A SATURATED DENDRITE
GROWTH ZONE...TOUGH AMOUNTS WILL BE LIMITED BY DRY AIR BELOW 5K
FT...THEN MID-LEVELS DRY OUT WITH THE LOWER LAYERS SATURATING...BUT
OUT OF THE DENDRITE GROWTH ZONE. EXPECT A TRANSITION TO FREEZING
RAIN WHEN CRYSTALS ARE LOST. NOT MUCH ICE ACCUMULATION WITH PCPN
DIMINISHING AS LOW SHEARS OUT AND IS ABSORBED BY DEEPENING EAST
COAST LOW...AND COLUMN DRIES EARLY MONDAY EVENING.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

A DRY PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF TEMPERATURE ADVECTION AS 925-850 MB BAROCLINIC ZONES REMAIN
PARALLEL TO THE FLOW. LOOKING FOR HIGHS IN THE MID 30S AND LOWS IN
THE LOW 20S WITH TEENS IN THE FAR NORTH.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT REGION MOVES IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
AS A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE MERGES WITH A WAVE THAT TRACKS FROM
THE SRN CALIFORNIA COAST TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MODELS IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT IN TAKING A BROAD LEE TROUGH IN THE PLAINS AND CONSOLIDATE
IT INTO A RAPIDLY DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER NRN HALF OF IL BY
THURSDAY MORNING. THERMAL STRUCTURE INDICATES SRN CWA WILL SEE A
RAIN SNOW MIX WITH MAINLY LIGHT SNOW NORTHERN HALF. QPF AMOUNTS ARE
LOW WITH QPF MAX STAYING SOUTH CLOSER TOT HE LOW CENTER.


MODELS DIFFER ON WHETHER OR NOT TO BRING A SHORT WAVE INTO THE
REGION SATURDAY. 12Z ECMWF BRINGS A WAVE IN SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING FOLLOWED BY SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON
WHILE GFS KEEPS THE WAVE OVER SRN CANADA AND DELAYS INTRUSION OF
ARCTIC AIR.


&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

EXPECT IFR CEILINGS TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS TAF SITES BY EARLY THIS
EVENING. THESE CEILINGS WILL LINGER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...BECOMING
MVFR LATER IN THE DAY. WEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN INTO
TONIGHT...THEN BECOME GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTHEAST BY 12Z SUNDAY.
THESE WINDS WILL LINGER ON SUNDAY...WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE.

LIGHT SNOW WITH 1 MILE VISIBILITIES WILL SPREAD INTO MADISON BY 09Z
SUNDAY...AND THE EASTERN SITES BY 11Z SUNDAY. THE LIGHT SNOW WILL
LINGER THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING...ENDING BETWEEN 16Z TO 18Z
SUNDAY. SNOWFALL RATES OF 0.1 TO 0.2 INCHES PER HOUR ARE EXPECTED.
TOTAL AMOUNTS OF AROUND 1 INCH ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY EVENING
ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN. A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP DURING THIS TIME...RESULTING IN GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS. GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES...WITH HIGH
WAVES OF 4 TO 6 FEET. FREEZING SPRAY IS ANTICIPATED WITH THE
EXPECTED WINDS AND WAVES.

GUSTY WINDS...HIGH WAVES AND SOME FREEZING SPRAY ARE POSSIBLE
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES BY TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AREA.
&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST SUNDAY
     NIGHT FOR LMZ644>646.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 PM CST SUNDAY FOR LMZ643.

&&

$$

TONIGHT/SUNDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...WOOD
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...REM




000
FXUS63 KMKX 242131
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
331 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

.TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

EXPECT MIDDLE TO HIGH CLOUDS TO FILL BACK IN ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN
COUNTIES THAT HAVE SEEN SOME CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON. LOW CLOUDS
WILL THEN FILL IN THIS AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. LOW CLOUDS
SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA INTO SUNDAY.

MODELS ARE FINALLY IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE
LOW AND 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION. THEY BRING IT
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA TO FAR NORTHEAST MISSOURI
TONIGHT...THEN INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY ON SUNDAY. THE BULK OF THE 500
MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH MISSES THE AREA TO THE SOUTHWEST DURING THIS
TIME.

ENOUGH LOW LEVEL Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE CROSSES THE AREA TO CONTINUE
THE HIGHER END POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. LOWERED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS A BIT ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE
BEST UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION TO THE SOUTHWEST.

AMOUNTS OF 1/2 INCH TOWARD SHEBOYGAN...TO AROUND 1 INCH IN
MADISON/MILWAUKEE/KENOSHA...TO AROUND 2 INCHES IN DARLINGTON ARE
EXPECTED. NO LAKE ENHANCEMENT IS EXPECTED...AS DELTA T VALUES ARE
NOT FAVORABLE SUNDAY...WITH VERY DRY AIR ABOVE THE INVERSION
DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO
THE 20S IN MOST OF THE AREA...WITH NEARLY STEADY TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY.

.SHORT TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH

THE 12Z 12KM NAM HAS DONE AWAY WITH THE LAKE-EFFECT POTENTIAL WITH
ONSHORE 1000-900MB CONVERGENCE DISSIPATING RAPIDLY EARLY SUNDAY
EVENING AS GRADIENT EASES WITH CLIPPER LOW MOVING AWAY TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. 925 MB DIP TO
THEIR LOWEST POINT AROUND 06Z...THEN STEADY OUT AND BEGIN TO RISE
TOWARDS MORNING WITH DEVELOPING SW FLOW AHEAD OF NEXT SHORT WAVE.
SHOULD SEE LOWS OF 10 TO 15 AROUND MIDNIGHT...THEN REMAIN STEADY.
LAKESHORE LOCATIONS WILL SEE READINGS HOLD UP HIGHER WITH RELATIVELY
WARMER ONSHORE FLOW.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF NEXT SHORT WAVE IN THE NWLY FLOW BRINGS
SLIGHT CHANCES TO NWRN PORTIONS OF CWA MONDAY MORNING...AND
OVERSPREADS ALL OF SRN WI MONDAY AFTERNOON. TRACK OF WAVE AND
SURFACE LOW KEEP BETTER FORCING...DEEP LAYER Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE/FRONTOGENETIC RESPONSE...AND DEEP MOISTURE TO THE
NORTHEAST.

INITIAL PCPN SHOULD BE ALL LIGHT SNOW WITH A SATURATED DENDRITE
GROWTH ZONE...TOUGH AMOUNTS WILL BE LIMITED BY DRY AIR BELOW 5K
FT...THEN MID-LEVELS DRY OUT WITH THE LOWER LAYERS SATURATING...BUT
OUT OF THE DENDRITE GROWTH ZONE. EXPECT A TRANSITION TO FREEZING
RAIN WHEN CRYSTALS ARE LOST. NOT MUCH ICE ACCUMULATION WITH PCPN
DIMINISHING AS LOW SHEARS OUT AND IS ABSORBED BY DEEPENING EAST
COAST LOW...AND COLUMN DRIES EARLY MONDAY EVENING.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

A DRY PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF TEMPERATURE ADVECTION AS 925-850 MB BAROCLINIC ZONES REMAIN
PARALLEL TO THE FLOW. LOOKING FOR HIGHS IN THE MID 30S AND LOWS IN
THE LOW 20S WITH TEENS IN THE FAR NORTH.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT REGION MOVES IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
AS A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE MERGES WITH A WAVE THAT TRACKS FROM
THE SRN CALIFORNIA COAST TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MODELS IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT IN TAKING A BROAD LEE TROUGH IN THE PLAINS AND CONSOLIDATE
IT INTO A RAPIDLY DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER NRN HALF OF IL BY
THURSDAY MORNING. THERMAL STRUCTURE INDICATES SRN CWA WILL SEE A
RAIN SNOW MIX WITH MAINLY LIGHT SNOW NORTHERN HALF. QPF AMOUNTS ARE
LOW WITH QPF MAX STAYING SOUTH CLOSER TOT HE LOW CENTER.


MODELS DIFFER ON WHETHER OR NOT TO BRING A SHORT WAVE INTO THE
REGION SATURDAY. 12Z ECMWF BRINGS A WAVE IN SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING FOLLOWED BY SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON
WHILE GFS KEEPS THE WAVE OVER SRN CANADA AND DELAYS INTRUSION OF
ARCTIC AIR.


&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

EXPECT IFR CEILINGS TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS TAF SITES BY EARLY THIS
EVENING. THESE CEILINGS WILL LINGER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...BECOMING
MVFR LATER IN THE DAY. WEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN INTO
TONIGHT...THEN BECOME GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTHEAST BY 12Z SUNDAY.
THESE WINDS WILL LINGER ON SUNDAY...WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE.

LIGHT SNOW WITH 1 MILE VISIBILITIES WILL SPREAD INTO MADISON BY 09Z
SUNDAY...AND THE EASTERN SITES BY 11Z SUNDAY. THE LIGHT SNOW WILL
LINGER THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING...ENDING BETWEEN 16Z TO 18Z
SUNDAY. SNOWFALL RATES OF 0.1 TO 0.2 INCHES PER HOUR ARE EXPECTED.
TOTAL AMOUNTS OF AROUND 1 INCH ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY EVENING
ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN. A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP DURING THIS TIME...RESULTING IN GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS. GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES...WITH HIGH
WAVES OF 4 TO 6 FEET. FREEZING SPRAY IS ANTICIPATED WITH THE
EXPECTED WINDS AND WAVES.

GUSTY WINDS...HIGH WAVES AND SOME FREEZING SPRAY ARE POSSIBLE
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES BY TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AREA.
&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST SUNDAY
     NIGHT FOR LMZ644>646.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 PM CST SUNDAY FOR LMZ643.

&&

$$

TONIGHT/SUNDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...WOOD
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...REM





000
FXUS63 KMKX 241828 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1228 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

.UPDATE...

LOW CLOUDS HAVE MOVED INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST...AND
SHOULD REMAIN THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON PER HRRR MODEL
FIELDS. THERE MAY BE SOME BREAKS IN THE FAR WEST...BUT THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY ON IF THIS WILL OCCUR. HIGHS MAY NEED TO BE
LOWERED A BIT IN MOST OF THE AREA...AND RAISED IN THE FAR
SOUTHEAST WHERE SOME SUNSHINE BROUGHT TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER
40S.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

EXPECT IFR CEILINGS TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON...AS LOW CLOUD DECK MOVES INTO THE AREA. THESE CEILINGS
WILL LINGER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...BECOMING MVFR LATER IN THE DAY.
WEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO TONIGHT...BECOMING GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTHEAST BY 12Z SUNDAY.
THESE WINDS WILL LINGER ON SUNDAY...WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS
POSSIBLE.

LIGHT SNOW WITH 1 MILE VISIBILITIES WILL SPREAD INTO MADISON BY
08Z SUNDAY...AND THE EASTERN SITES BY 09Z SUNDAY. THE LIGHT SNOW
WILL LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING...ENDING AROUND 18Z TO 19Z SUNDAY.
SNOWFALL RATES OF 0.2 TO 0.3 INCHES PER HOUR ARE EXPECTED. TOTAL
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY EVENING
ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN. A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP DURING THIS TIME...RESULTING IN GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS. GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES...WITH
HIGH WAVES OF 4 TO 6 FEET. FREEZING SPRAY IS ANTICIPATED WITH THE
EXPECTED WINDS AND WAVES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

EXPECT STRATUS TO DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST LATER THIS MORNING BUT
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE. DO EXPECT AT LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SUN IN THE AFTERNOON. ALREADY MILD TEMPS AND SOME SUNSHINE SHOULD
BOOST TEMPS TO NEAR 40F.

A NLY 140 JET STREAM WILL DIVE THROUGH THE PLAINS TNT...DIGGING AND
AMPLIFYING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL BE AT THE IA AND MO BORDER
BY 12Z SUN. THE INTENSIFYING SFC LOW WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR TRACK
PLACING THE BEST Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND FRONTOGENESIS JUST SOUTH
OF WI. DESPITE THE MODEL MASS FIELDS AGREEING FAIRLY WELL...THERE
ARE SOME QPF DIFFERENCES. TOOK A BLEND OF WPC AND CONSALL QPF WHICH
THEN YIELDS AROUND 2 INCHES NEAR THE IL BORDER TO LESS THAN AN INCH
TOWARD CENTRAL WI FOR LATE TNT AND SUN AM.

SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
MODELS ALL SHOW SURFACE LOW VCNTY CNTRL IL WILL BE DIVING SEWD
RATHER RAPIDLY WITH NRN FRINGE OF PRECIP SHIELD AFFECTING SRN WI
IN THE MORNING WITH A QUICK EXIT LIKELY AS DRIER AIR WRAPS IN PER
700 RH PROGS. 500 MILLIBAR PROGS SHOW THE UPPER SUPPORT QUICKLY
FADING AS THE CIRCULATION CENTER DROPS SEWD RAPIDLY WITH THE STGR
JET ACTION WELL SOUTH OF WI. 850 TEMPS DROP TO -10C THOUGH DRY
AIR ADVECTION IS PRONOUNCED WITH ARRIVAL OF COLDER AIR AND SOUNDINGS
DO NOT LOOK CONDUCIVE FOR MEASURABLE LAKE EFFECT WITH THE LOW
INVERSION HEIGHTS.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
SURFACE/850 TROUGH AXIS SWINGS ACROSS THE STATE. SWATH OF 850
MILLIBAR WARM AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS. QPF VARIES BUT WENT WITH A
BLENDED APPROACH FOR NOW. GFS/NAM SUGGEST KEEPING ANY MEASURABLE
PRECIP LARGELY NORTH OF CWA THROUGH 18Z WITH BETTER SATURATION
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. LOW LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WORKS ACROSS
THE STATE WITH POTENTIAL FOR WEAKER FORCING SIGNAL ALOFT WITH
ELONGATED...MOSTLY SHEARED VORTICITY. PROXIMITY OF SURFACE TROUGH
AND SHEAR AXIS KEEPS POPS GOING INTO MONDAY EVENING.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
SHEAR AXIS SHIFTS EAST AND SURFACE HIGH WORKS IN...SO QUIET
PERIOD EXPECTED. NEXT LOW DRAWS CLOSER ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE ECMWF
SHOWING A MORE NORTHERN SOLUTION WITH 850 TEMPS RISING WELL ABOVE
ZERO CELSIUS WITHIN THERMAL RIDGE. THE GFS SHOWS THE THERMAL RIDGE
SUPPRESSED FURTHER SOUTH DUE TO THE MORE SOUTHERN TRACK TO THE
SURFACE LOW. AS TIME DRAWS CLOSER MAY NEED TO BUMP TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW
COMBO OF WARM ADVECTION AND UPPER DYNAMICS ARRIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING A WARMER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM WITH
PRIMARY LOW TRACKING NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF MKE/MSN EARLY THURSDAY.
MEANWHILE THE GFS DEVELOPS A SLOWER AND STRONGER SYSTEM TO OUR
SOUTH WITH AN IMPLIED LONGER DURATION EVENT THAT WOULD LAST INTO
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE GEM IS ALSO SHOWING A STRONGER LOW
TRACKING SOUTH OF THE THE STATE WITH TIMING MORE IN LINE WITH THE
MORE PROGRESSIVE ECMWF. STILL SHOWING SOME WARMER THICKNESSES/850
TEMPS LIKE THE ECMWF SO HAVE THE MIXED PRECIP TYPE IN GRIDS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GFS MUCH LESS OF A MIXED PRECIP SIGNAL THAN THE
ECMWF AND GEM. BY LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY ALL
MODELS SUGGEST COLDER AIR WRAPPING IN AS LOW PULLS EAST.

FRIDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
UPPER FLOW APPEARS TO TAKE ON A BROAD ANTICYCLONIC LOOK WITH
SURFACE RIDGE NUDGING INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTED
LOW FROM THURSDAY.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...BROKEN STRATUS FROM 2.5-3.5 KFT CONTINUES OVER
SRN WI BUT STRATUS CLEARS WEST OF THE MS RIVER WHERE 925-850 MB
TEMPS ARE WARMER WITH LESS MOISTURE. THE WLY FLOW WILL BRING THE
MILDER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST LATER THIS AM
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON SO EXPECT STRATUS TO BECOME FEW-SCT. MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL THEN INCREASE FROM THE NW AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE NRN PLAINS. THE LOW WILL TRACK SEWD THROUGH SRN
MN...IA...AND CENTRAL IL FOR LATE TNT THROUGH SUN AM. THIS WILL
BRING A ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION LATE TNT. EXPECT MVFR CIGS
TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING BEFORE THE SNOW STARTS...THEN CIGS WILL FALL
BELOW 1 KFT WITH VSBYS RANGING FROM 1-3 MILES WITH THE LIGHT
SNOW.

MARINE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BEGIN AT 09Z SUN AND END SUNDAY
EVENING. AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS FROM IA INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
LATE SAT NT AND SUN...BRISK NELY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ALONG WITH HIGH
WAVES. THE WINDS AND WINDS WILL SUBSIDE SUNDAY EVENING AS A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER LAKE MI.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST SUNDAY
     NIGHT FOR LMZ644>646.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 PM CST SUNDAY FOR LMZ643.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WOOD
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...GEHRING
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...COLLAR





000
FXUS63 KMKX 241828 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1228 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

.UPDATE...

LOW CLOUDS HAVE MOVED INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST...AND
SHOULD REMAIN THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON PER HRRR MODEL
FIELDS. THERE MAY BE SOME BREAKS IN THE FAR WEST...BUT THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY ON IF THIS WILL OCCUR. HIGHS MAY NEED TO BE
LOWERED A BIT IN MOST OF THE AREA...AND RAISED IN THE FAR
SOUTHEAST WHERE SOME SUNSHINE BROUGHT TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER
40S.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

EXPECT IFR CEILINGS TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON...AS LOW CLOUD DECK MOVES INTO THE AREA. THESE CEILINGS
WILL LINGER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...BECOMING MVFR LATER IN THE DAY.
WEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO TONIGHT...BECOMING GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTHEAST BY 12Z SUNDAY.
THESE WINDS WILL LINGER ON SUNDAY...WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS
POSSIBLE.

LIGHT SNOW WITH 1 MILE VISIBILITIES WILL SPREAD INTO MADISON BY
08Z SUNDAY...AND THE EASTERN SITES BY 09Z SUNDAY. THE LIGHT SNOW
WILL LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING...ENDING AROUND 18Z TO 19Z SUNDAY.
SNOWFALL RATES OF 0.2 TO 0.3 INCHES PER HOUR ARE EXPECTED. TOTAL
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY EVENING
ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN. A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP DURING THIS TIME...RESULTING IN GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS. GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES...WITH
HIGH WAVES OF 4 TO 6 FEET. FREEZING SPRAY IS ANTICIPATED WITH THE
EXPECTED WINDS AND WAVES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

EXPECT STRATUS TO DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST LATER THIS MORNING BUT
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE. DO EXPECT AT LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SUN IN THE AFTERNOON. ALREADY MILD TEMPS AND SOME SUNSHINE SHOULD
BOOST TEMPS TO NEAR 40F.

A NLY 140 JET STREAM WILL DIVE THROUGH THE PLAINS TNT...DIGGING AND
AMPLIFYING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL BE AT THE IA AND MO BORDER
BY 12Z SUN. THE INTENSIFYING SFC LOW WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR TRACK
PLACING THE BEST Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND FRONTOGENESIS JUST SOUTH
OF WI. DESPITE THE MODEL MASS FIELDS AGREEING FAIRLY WELL...THERE
ARE SOME QPF DIFFERENCES. TOOK A BLEND OF WPC AND CONSALL QPF WHICH
THEN YIELDS AROUND 2 INCHES NEAR THE IL BORDER TO LESS THAN AN INCH
TOWARD CENTRAL WI FOR LATE TNT AND SUN AM.

SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
MODELS ALL SHOW SURFACE LOW VCNTY CNTRL IL WILL BE DIVING SEWD
RATHER RAPIDLY WITH NRN FRINGE OF PRECIP SHIELD AFFECTING SRN WI
IN THE MORNING WITH A QUICK EXIT LIKELY AS DRIER AIR WRAPS IN PER
700 RH PROGS. 500 MILLIBAR PROGS SHOW THE UPPER SUPPORT QUICKLY
FADING AS THE CIRCULATION CENTER DROPS SEWD RAPIDLY WITH THE STGR
JET ACTION WELL SOUTH OF WI. 850 TEMPS DROP TO -10C THOUGH DRY
AIR ADVECTION IS PRONOUNCED WITH ARRIVAL OF COLDER AIR AND SOUNDINGS
DO NOT LOOK CONDUCIVE FOR MEASURABLE LAKE EFFECT WITH THE LOW
INVERSION HEIGHTS.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
SURFACE/850 TROUGH AXIS SWINGS ACROSS THE STATE. SWATH OF 850
MILLIBAR WARM AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS. QPF VARIES BUT WENT WITH A
BLENDED APPROACH FOR NOW. GFS/NAM SUGGEST KEEPING ANY MEASURABLE
PRECIP LARGELY NORTH OF CWA THROUGH 18Z WITH BETTER SATURATION
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. LOW LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WORKS ACROSS
THE STATE WITH POTENTIAL FOR WEAKER FORCING SIGNAL ALOFT WITH
ELONGATED...MOSTLY SHEARED VORTICITY. PROXIMITY OF SURFACE TROUGH
AND SHEAR AXIS KEEPS POPS GOING INTO MONDAY EVENING.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
SHEAR AXIS SHIFTS EAST AND SURFACE HIGH WORKS IN...SO QUIET
PERIOD EXPECTED. NEXT LOW DRAWS CLOSER ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE ECMWF
SHOWING A MORE NORTHERN SOLUTION WITH 850 TEMPS RISING WELL ABOVE
ZERO CELSIUS WITHIN THERMAL RIDGE. THE GFS SHOWS THE THERMAL RIDGE
SUPPRESSED FURTHER SOUTH DUE TO THE MORE SOUTHERN TRACK TO THE
SURFACE LOW. AS TIME DRAWS CLOSER MAY NEED TO BUMP TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW
COMBO OF WARM ADVECTION AND UPPER DYNAMICS ARRIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING A WARMER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM WITH
PRIMARY LOW TRACKING NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF MKE/MSN EARLY THURSDAY.
MEANWHILE THE GFS DEVELOPS A SLOWER AND STRONGER SYSTEM TO OUR
SOUTH WITH AN IMPLIED LONGER DURATION EVENT THAT WOULD LAST INTO
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE GEM IS ALSO SHOWING A STRONGER LOW
TRACKING SOUTH OF THE THE STATE WITH TIMING MORE IN LINE WITH THE
MORE PROGRESSIVE ECMWF. STILL SHOWING SOME WARMER THICKNESSES/850
TEMPS LIKE THE ECMWF SO HAVE THE MIXED PRECIP TYPE IN GRIDS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GFS MUCH LESS OF A MIXED PRECIP SIGNAL THAN THE
ECMWF AND GEM. BY LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY ALL
MODELS SUGGEST COLDER AIR WRAPPING IN AS LOW PULLS EAST.

FRIDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
UPPER FLOW APPEARS TO TAKE ON A BROAD ANTICYCLONIC LOOK WITH
SURFACE RIDGE NUDGING INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTED
LOW FROM THURSDAY.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...BROKEN STRATUS FROM 2.5-3.5 KFT CONTINUES OVER
SRN WI BUT STRATUS CLEARS WEST OF THE MS RIVER WHERE 925-850 MB
TEMPS ARE WARMER WITH LESS MOISTURE. THE WLY FLOW WILL BRING THE
MILDER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST LATER THIS AM
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON SO EXPECT STRATUS TO BECOME FEW-SCT. MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL THEN INCREASE FROM THE NW AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE NRN PLAINS. THE LOW WILL TRACK SEWD THROUGH SRN
MN...IA...AND CENTRAL IL FOR LATE TNT THROUGH SUN AM. THIS WILL
BRING A ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION LATE TNT. EXPECT MVFR CIGS
TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING BEFORE THE SNOW STARTS...THEN CIGS WILL FALL
BELOW 1 KFT WITH VSBYS RANGING FROM 1-3 MILES WITH THE LIGHT
SNOW.

MARINE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BEGIN AT 09Z SUN AND END SUNDAY
EVENING. AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS FROM IA INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
LATE SAT NT AND SUN...BRISK NELY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ALONG WITH HIGH
WAVES. THE WINDS AND WINDS WILL SUBSIDE SUNDAY EVENING AS A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER LAKE MI.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST SUNDAY
     NIGHT FOR LMZ644>646.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 PM CST SUNDAY FOR LMZ643.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WOOD
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...GEHRING
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...COLLAR




000
FXUS63 KMKX 240926
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
326 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

EXPECT STRATUS TO DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST LATER THIS MORNING BUT
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE. DO EXPECT AT LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SUN IN THE AFTERNOON. ALREADY MILD TEMPS AND SOME SUNSHINE SHOULD
BOOST TEMPS TO NEAR 40F.

A NLY 140 JET STREAM WILL DIVE THROUGH THE PLAINS TNT...DIGGING AND
AMPLIFYING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL BE AT THE IA AND MO BORDER
BY 12Z SUN. THE INTENSIFYING SFC LOW WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR TRACK
PLACING THE BEST Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND FRONTOGENESIS JUST SOUTH
OF WI. DESPITE THE MODEL MASS FIELDS AGREEING FAIRLY WELL...THERE
ARE SOME QPF DIFFERENCES. TOOK A BLEND OF WPC AND CONSALL QPF WHICH
THEN YIELDS AROUND 2 INCHES NEAR THE IL BORDER TO LESS THAN AN INCH
TOWARD CENTRAL WI FOR LATE TNT AND SUN AM.

.SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
MODELS ALL SHOW SURFACE LOW VCNTY CNTRL IL WILL BE DIVING SEWD
RATHER RAPIDLY WITH NRN FRINGE OF PRECIP SHIELD AFFECTING SRN WI
IN THE MORNING WITH A QUICK EXIT LIKELY AS DRIER AIR WRAPS IN PER
700 RH PROGS. 500 MILLIBAR PROGS SHOW THE UPPER SUPPORT QUICKLY
FADING AS THE CIRCULATION CENTER DROPS SEWD RAPIDLY WITH THE STGR
JET ACTION WELL SOUTH OF WI. 850 TEMPS DROP TO -10C THOUGH DRY
AIR ADVECTION IS PRONOUNCED WITH ARRIVAL OF COLDER AIR AND SOUNDINGS
DO NOT LOOK CONDUCIVE FOR MEASURABLE LAKE EFFECT WITH THE LOW
INVERSION HEIGHTS.

.MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
SURFACE/850 TROUGH AXIS SWINGS ACROSS THE STATE. SWATH OF 850
MILLIBAR WARM AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS. QPF VARIES BUT WENT WITH A
BLENDED APPROACH FOR NOW. GFS/NAM SUGGEST KEEPING ANY MEASURABLE
PRECIP LARGELY NORTH OF CWA THROUGH 18Z WITH BETTER SATURATION
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. LOW LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WORKS ACROSS
THE STATE WITH POTENTIAL FOR WEAKER FORCING SIGNAL ALOFT WITH
ELONGATED...MOSTLY SHEARED VORTICITY. PROXIMITY OF SURFACE TROUGH
AND SHEAR AXIS KEEPS POPS GOING INTO MONDAY EVENING.

.TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
SHEAR AXIS SHIFTS EAST AND SURFACE HIGH WORKS IN...SO QUIET
PERIOD EXPECTED. NEXT LOW DRAWS CLOSER ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE ECMWF
SHOWING A MORE NORTHERN SOLUTION WITH 850 TEMPS RISING WELL ABOVE
ZERO CELSIUS WITHIN THERMAL RIDGE. THE GFS SHOWS THE THERMAL RIDGE
SUPPRESSED FURTHER SOUTH DUE TO THE MORE SOUTHERN TRACK TO THE
SURFACE LOW. AS TIME DRAWS CLOSER MAY NEED TO BUMP TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW
COMBO OF WARM ADVECTION AND UPPER DYNAMICS ARRIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING A WARMER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM WITH
PRIMARY LOW TRACKING NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF MKE/MSN EARLY THURSDAY.
MEANWHILE THE GFS DEVELOPS A SLOWER AND STRONGER SYSTEM TO OUR
SOUTH WITH AN IMPLIED LONGER DURATION EVENT THAT WOULD LAST INTO
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE GEM IS ALSO SHOWING A STRONGER LOW
TRACKING SOUTH OF THE THE STATE WITH TIMING MORE IN LINE WITH THE
MORE PROGRESSIVE ECMWF. STILL SHOWING SOME WARMER THICKNESSES/850
TEMPS LIKE THE ECMWF SO HAVE THE MIXED PRECIP TYPE IN GRIDS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GFS MUCH LESS OF A MIXED PRECIP SIGNAL THAN THE
ECMWF AND GEM. BY LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY ALL
MODELS SUGGEST COLDER AIR WRAPPING IN AS LOW PULLS EAST.

.FRIDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
UPPER FLOW APPEARS TO TAKE ON A BROAD ANTICYCLONIC LOOK WITH
SURFACE RIDGE NUDGING INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTED
LOW FROM THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...BROKEN STRATUS FROM 2.5-3.5 KFT CONTINUES OVER
SRN WI BUT STRATUS CLEARS WEST OF THE MS RIVER WHERE 925-850 MB
TEMPS ARE WARMER WITH LESS MOISTURE. THE WLY FLOW WILL BRING THE
MILDER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST LATER THIS AM
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON SO EXPECT STRATUS TO BECOME FEW-SCT. MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL THEN INCREASE FROM THE NW AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE NRN PLAINS. THE LOW WILL TRACK SEWD THROUGH SRN
MN...IA...AND CENTRAL IL FOR LATE TNT THROUGH SUN AM. THIS WILL
BRING A ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION LATE TNT. EXPECT MVFR CIGS
TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING BEFORE THE SNOW STARTS...THEN CIGS WILL FALL
BELOW 1 KFT WITH VSBYS RANGING FROM 1-3 MILES WITH THE LIGHT
SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BEGIN AT 09Z SUN AND END SUNDAY
EVENING. AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS FROM IA INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
LATE SAT NT AND SUN...BRISK NELY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ALONG WITH HIGH
WAVES. THE WINDS AND WINDS WILL SUBSIDE SUNDAY EVENING AS A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER LAKE MI.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST SUNDAY
     NIGHT FOR LMZ644>646.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 PM CST SUNDAY FOR LMZ643.

&&

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...GEHRING
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...COLLAR




000
FXUS63 KMKX 240926
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
326 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

EXPECT STRATUS TO DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST LATER THIS MORNING BUT
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE. DO EXPECT AT LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SUN IN THE AFTERNOON. ALREADY MILD TEMPS AND SOME SUNSHINE SHOULD
BOOST TEMPS TO NEAR 40F.

A NLY 140 JET STREAM WILL DIVE THROUGH THE PLAINS TNT...DIGGING AND
AMPLIFYING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL BE AT THE IA AND MO BORDER
BY 12Z SUN. THE INTENSIFYING SFC LOW WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR TRACK
PLACING THE BEST Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND FRONTOGENESIS JUST SOUTH
OF WI. DESPITE THE MODEL MASS FIELDS AGREEING FAIRLY WELL...THERE
ARE SOME QPF DIFFERENCES. TOOK A BLEND OF WPC AND CONSALL QPF WHICH
THEN YIELDS AROUND 2 INCHES NEAR THE IL BORDER TO LESS THAN AN INCH
TOWARD CENTRAL WI FOR LATE TNT AND SUN AM.

.SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
MODELS ALL SHOW SURFACE LOW VCNTY CNTRL IL WILL BE DIVING SEWD
RATHER RAPIDLY WITH NRN FRINGE OF PRECIP SHIELD AFFECTING SRN WI
IN THE MORNING WITH A QUICK EXIT LIKELY AS DRIER AIR WRAPS IN PER
700 RH PROGS. 500 MILLIBAR PROGS SHOW THE UPPER SUPPORT QUICKLY
FADING AS THE CIRCULATION CENTER DROPS SEWD RAPIDLY WITH THE STGR
JET ACTION WELL SOUTH OF WI. 850 TEMPS DROP TO -10C THOUGH DRY
AIR ADVECTION IS PRONOUNCED WITH ARRIVAL OF COLDER AIR AND SOUNDINGS
DO NOT LOOK CONDUCIVE FOR MEASURABLE LAKE EFFECT WITH THE LOW
INVERSION HEIGHTS.

.MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
SURFACE/850 TROUGH AXIS SWINGS ACROSS THE STATE. SWATH OF 850
MILLIBAR WARM AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS. QPF VARIES BUT WENT WITH A
BLENDED APPROACH FOR NOW. GFS/NAM SUGGEST KEEPING ANY MEASURABLE
PRECIP LARGELY NORTH OF CWA THROUGH 18Z WITH BETTER SATURATION
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. LOW LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WORKS ACROSS
THE STATE WITH POTENTIAL FOR WEAKER FORCING SIGNAL ALOFT WITH
ELONGATED...MOSTLY SHEARED VORTICITY. PROXIMITY OF SURFACE TROUGH
AND SHEAR AXIS KEEPS POPS GOING INTO MONDAY EVENING.

.TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
SHEAR AXIS SHIFTS EAST AND SURFACE HIGH WORKS IN...SO QUIET
PERIOD EXPECTED. NEXT LOW DRAWS CLOSER ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE ECMWF
SHOWING A MORE NORTHERN SOLUTION WITH 850 TEMPS RISING WELL ABOVE
ZERO CELSIUS WITHIN THERMAL RIDGE. THE GFS SHOWS THE THERMAL RIDGE
SUPPRESSED FURTHER SOUTH DUE TO THE MORE SOUTHERN TRACK TO THE
SURFACE LOW. AS TIME DRAWS CLOSER MAY NEED TO BUMP TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW
COMBO OF WARM ADVECTION AND UPPER DYNAMICS ARRIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING A WARMER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM WITH
PRIMARY LOW TRACKING NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF MKE/MSN EARLY THURSDAY.
MEANWHILE THE GFS DEVELOPS A SLOWER AND STRONGER SYSTEM TO OUR
SOUTH WITH AN IMPLIED LONGER DURATION EVENT THAT WOULD LAST INTO
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE GEM IS ALSO SHOWING A STRONGER LOW
TRACKING SOUTH OF THE THE STATE WITH TIMING MORE IN LINE WITH THE
MORE PROGRESSIVE ECMWF. STILL SHOWING SOME WARMER THICKNESSES/850
TEMPS LIKE THE ECMWF SO HAVE THE MIXED PRECIP TYPE IN GRIDS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GFS MUCH LESS OF A MIXED PRECIP SIGNAL THAN THE
ECMWF AND GEM. BY LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY ALL
MODELS SUGGEST COLDER AIR WRAPPING IN AS LOW PULLS EAST.

.FRIDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
UPPER FLOW APPEARS TO TAKE ON A BROAD ANTICYCLONIC LOOK WITH
SURFACE RIDGE NUDGING INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTED
LOW FROM THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...BROKEN STRATUS FROM 2.5-3.5 KFT CONTINUES OVER
SRN WI BUT STRATUS CLEARS WEST OF THE MS RIVER WHERE 925-850 MB
TEMPS ARE WARMER WITH LESS MOISTURE. THE WLY FLOW WILL BRING THE
MILDER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST LATER THIS AM
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON SO EXPECT STRATUS TO BECOME FEW-SCT. MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL THEN INCREASE FROM THE NW AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE NRN PLAINS. THE LOW WILL TRACK SEWD THROUGH SRN
MN...IA...AND CENTRAL IL FOR LATE TNT THROUGH SUN AM. THIS WILL
BRING A ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION LATE TNT. EXPECT MVFR CIGS
TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING BEFORE THE SNOW STARTS...THEN CIGS WILL FALL
BELOW 1 KFT WITH VSBYS RANGING FROM 1-3 MILES WITH THE LIGHT
SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BEGIN AT 09Z SUN AND END SUNDAY
EVENING. AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS FROM IA INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
LATE SAT NT AND SUN...BRISK NELY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ALONG WITH HIGH
WAVES. THE WINDS AND WINDS WILL SUBSIDE SUNDAY EVENING AS A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER LAKE MI.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST SUNDAY
     NIGHT FOR LMZ644>646.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 PM CST SUNDAY FOR LMZ643.

&&

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...GEHRING
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...COLLAR





000
FXUS63 KMKX 240926
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
326 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

EXPECT STRATUS TO DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST LATER THIS MORNING BUT
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE. DO EXPECT AT LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SUN IN THE AFTERNOON. ALREADY MILD TEMPS AND SOME SUNSHINE SHOULD
BOOST TEMPS TO NEAR 40F.

A NLY 140 JET STREAM WILL DIVE THROUGH THE PLAINS TNT...DIGGING AND
AMPLIFYING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL BE AT THE IA AND MO BORDER
BY 12Z SUN. THE INTENSIFYING SFC LOW WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR TRACK
PLACING THE BEST Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND FRONTOGENESIS JUST SOUTH
OF WI. DESPITE THE MODEL MASS FIELDS AGREEING FAIRLY WELL...THERE
ARE SOME QPF DIFFERENCES. TOOK A BLEND OF WPC AND CONSALL QPF WHICH
THEN YIELDS AROUND 2 INCHES NEAR THE IL BORDER TO LESS THAN AN INCH
TOWARD CENTRAL WI FOR LATE TNT AND SUN AM.

.SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
MODELS ALL SHOW SURFACE LOW VCNTY CNTRL IL WILL BE DIVING SEWD
RATHER RAPIDLY WITH NRN FRINGE OF PRECIP SHIELD AFFECTING SRN WI
IN THE MORNING WITH A QUICK EXIT LIKELY AS DRIER AIR WRAPS IN PER
700 RH PROGS. 500 MILLIBAR PROGS SHOW THE UPPER SUPPORT QUICKLY
FADING AS THE CIRCULATION CENTER DROPS SEWD RAPIDLY WITH THE STGR
JET ACTION WELL SOUTH OF WI. 850 TEMPS DROP TO -10C THOUGH DRY
AIR ADVECTION IS PRONOUNCED WITH ARRIVAL OF COLDER AIR AND SOUNDINGS
DO NOT LOOK CONDUCIVE FOR MEASURABLE LAKE EFFECT WITH THE LOW
INVERSION HEIGHTS.

.MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
SURFACE/850 TROUGH AXIS SWINGS ACROSS THE STATE. SWATH OF 850
MILLIBAR WARM AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS. QPF VARIES BUT WENT WITH A
BLENDED APPROACH FOR NOW. GFS/NAM SUGGEST KEEPING ANY MEASURABLE
PRECIP LARGELY NORTH OF CWA THROUGH 18Z WITH BETTER SATURATION
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. LOW LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WORKS ACROSS
THE STATE WITH POTENTIAL FOR WEAKER FORCING SIGNAL ALOFT WITH
ELONGATED...MOSTLY SHEARED VORTICITY. PROXIMITY OF SURFACE TROUGH
AND SHEAR AXIS KEEPS POPS GOING INTO MONDAY EVENING.

.TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
SHEAR AXIS SHIFTS EAST AND SURFACE HIGH WORKS IN...SO QUIET
PERIOD EXPECTED. NEXT LOW DRAWS CLOSER ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE ECMWF
SHOWING A MORE NORTHERN SOLUTION WITH 850 TEMPS RISING WELL ABOVE
ZERO CELSIUS WITHIN THERMAL RIDGE. THE GFS SHOWS THE THERMAL RIDGE
SUPPRESSED FURTHER SOUTH DUE TO THE MORE SOUTHERN TRACK TO THE
SURFACE LOW. AS TIME DRAWS CLOSER MAY NEED TO BUMP TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW
COMBO OF WARM ADVECTION AND UPPER DYNAMICS ARRIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING A WARMER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM WITH
PRIMARY LOW TRACKING NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF MKE/MSN EARLY THURSDAY.
MEANWHILE THE GFS DEVELOPS A SLOWER AND STRONGER SYSTEM TO OUR
SOUTH WITH AN IMPLIED LONGER DURATION EVENT THAT WOULD LAST INTO
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE GEM IS ALSO SHOWING A STRONGER LOW
TRACKING SOUTH OF THE THE STATE WITH TIMING MORE IN LINE WITH THE
MORE PROGRESSIVE ECMWF. STILL SHOWING SOME WARMER THICKNESSES/850
TEMPS LIKE THE ECMWF SO HAVE THE MIXED PRECIP TYPE IN GRIDS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GFS MUCH LESS OF A MIXED PRECIP SIGNAL THAN THE
ECMWF AND GEM. BY LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY ALL
MODELS SUGGEST COLDER AIR WRAPPING IN AS LOW PULLS EAST.

.FRIDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
UPPER FLOW APPEARS TO TAKE ON A BROAD ANTICYCLONIC LOOK WITH
SURFACE RIDGE NUDGING INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTED
LOW FROM THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...BROKEN STRATUS FROM 2.5-3.5 KFT CONTINUES OVER
SRN WI BUT STRATUS CLEARS WEST OF THE MS RIVER WHERE 925-850 MB
TEMPS ARE WARMER WITH LESS MOISTURE. THE WLY FLOW WILL BRING THE
MILDER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST LATER THIS AM
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON SO EXPECT STRATUS TO BECOME FEW-SCT. MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL THEN INCREASE FROM THE NW AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE NRN PLAINS. THE LOW WILL TRACK SEWD THROUGH SRN
MN...IA...AND CENTRAL IL FOR LATE TNT THROUGH SUN AM. THIS WILL
BRING A ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION LATE TNT. EXPECT MVFR CIGS
TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING BEFORE THE SNOW STARTS...THEN CIGS WILL FALL
BELOW 1 KFT WITH VSBYS RANGING FROM 1-3 MILES WITH THE LIGHT
SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BEGIN AT 09Z SUN AND END SUNDAY
EVENING. AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS FROM IA INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
LATE SAT NT AND SUN...BRISK NELY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ALONG WITH HIGH
WAVES. THE WINDS AND WINDS WILL SUBSIDE SUNDAY EVENING AS A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER LAKE MI.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST SUNDAY
     NIGHT FOR LMZ644>646.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 PM CST SUNDAY FOR LMZ643.

&&

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...GEHRING
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...COLLAR




000
FXUS63 KMKX 240926
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
326 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

EXPECT STRATUS TO DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST LATER THIS MORNING BUT
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE. DO EXPECT AT LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SUN IN THE AFTERNOON. ALREADY MILD TEMPS AND SOME SUNSHINE SHOULD
BOOST TEMPS TO NEAR 40F.

A NLY 140 JET STREAM WILL DIVE THROUGH THE PLAINS TNT...DIGGING AND
AMPLIFYING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL BE AT THE IA AND MO BORDER
BY 12Z SUN. THE INTENSIFYING SFC LOW WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR TRACK
PLACING THE BEST Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND FRONTOGENESIS JUST SOUTH
OF WI. DESPITE THE MODEL MASS FIELDS AGREEING FAIRLY WELL...THERE
ARE SOME QPF DIFFERENCES. TOOK A BLEND OF WPC AND CONSALL QPF WHICH
THEN YIELDS AROUND 2 INCHES NEAR THE IL BORDER TO LESS THAN AN INCH
TOWARD CENTRAL WI FOR LATE TNT AND SUN AM.

.SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
MODELS ALL SHOW SURFACE LOW VCNTY CNTRL IL WILL BE DIVING SEWD
RATHER RAPIDLY WITH NRN FRINGE OF PRECIP SHIELD AFFECTING SRN WI
IN THE MORNING WITH A QUICK EXIT LIKELY AS DRIER AIR WRAPS IN PER
700 RH PROGS. 500 MILLIBAR PROGS SHOW THE UPPER SUPPORT QUICKLY
FADING AS THE CIRCULATION CENTER DROPS SEWD RAPIDLY WITH THE STGR
JET ACTION WELL SOUTH OF WI. 850 TEMPS DROP TO -10C THOUGH DRY
AIR ADVECTION IS PRONOUNCED WITH ARRIVAL OF COLDER AIR AND SOUNDINGS
DO NOT LOOK CONDUCIVE FOR MEASURABLE LAKE EFFECT WITH THE LOW
INVERSION HEIGHTS.

.MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
SURFACE/850 TROUGH AXIS SWINGS ACROSS THE STATE. SWATH OF 850
MILLIBAR WARM AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS. QPF VARIES BUT WENT WITH A
BLENDED APPROACH FOR NOW. GFS/NAM SUGGEST KEEPING ANY MEASURABLE
PRECIP LARGELY NORTH OF CWA THROUGH 18Z WITH BETTER SATURATION
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. LOW LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WORKS ACROSS
THE STATE WITH POTENTIAL FOR WEAKER FORCING SIGNAL ALOFT WITH
ELONGATED...MOSTLY SHEARED VORTICITY. PROXIMITY OF SURFACE TROUGH
AND SHEAR AXIS KEEPS POPS GOING INTO MONDAY EVENING.

.TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
SHEAR AXIS SHIFTS EAST AND SURFACE HIGH WORKS IN...SO QUIET
PERIOD EXPECTED. NEXT LOW DRAWS CLOSER ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE ECMWF
SHOWING A MORE NORTHERN SOLUTION WITH 850 TEMPS RISING WELL ABOVE
ZERO CELSIUS WITHIN THERMAL RIDGE. THE GFS SHOWS THE THERMAL RIDGE
SUPPRESSED FURTHER SOUTH DUE TO THE MORE SOUTHERN TRACK TO THE
SURFACE LOW. AS TIME DRAWS CLOSER MAY NEED TO BUMP TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW
COMBO OF WARM ADVECTION AND UPPER DYNAMICS ARRIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING A WARMER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM WITH
PRIMARY LOW TRACKING NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF MKE/MSN EARLY THURSDAY.
MEANWHILE THE GFS DEVELOPS A SLOWER AND STRONGER SYSTEM TO OUR
SOUTH WITH AN IMPLIED LONGER DURATION EVENT THAT WOULD LAST INTO
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE GEM IS ALSO SHOWING A STRONGER LOW
TRACKING SOUTH OF THE THE STATE WITH TIMING MORE IN LINE WITH THE
MORE PROGRESSIVE ECMWF. STILL SHOWING SOME WARMER THICKNESSES/850
TEMPS LIKE THE ECMWF SO HAVE THE MIXED PRECIP TYPE IN GRIDS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GFS MUCH LESS OF A MIXED PRECIP SIGNAL THAN THE
ECMWF AND GEM. BY LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY ALL
MODELS SUGGEST COLDER AIR WRAPPING IN AS LOW PULLS EAST.

.FRIDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
UPPER FLOW APPEARS TO TAKE ON A BROAD ANTICYCLONIC LOOK WITH
SURFACE RIDGE NUDGING INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTED
LOW FROM THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...BROKEN STRATUS FROM 2.5-3.5 KFT CONTINUES OVER
SRN WI BUT STRATUS CLEARS WEST OF THE MS RIVER WHERE 925-850 MB
TEMPS ARE WARMER WITH LESS MOISTURE. THE WLY FLOW WILL BRING THE
MILDER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST LATER THIS AM
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON SO EXPECT STRATUS TO BECOME FEW-SCT. MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL THEN INCREASE FROM THE NW AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE NRN PLAINS. THE LOW WILL TRACK SEWD THROUGH SRN
MN...IA...AND CENTRAL IL FOR LATE TNT THROUGH SUN AM. THIS WILL
BRING A ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION LATE TNT. EXPECT MVFR CIGS
TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING BEFORE THE SNOW STARTS...THEN CIGS WILL FALL
BELOW 1 KFT WITH VSBYS RANGING FROM 1-3 MILES WITH THE LIGHT
SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BEGIN AT 09Z SUN AND END SUNDAY
EVENING. AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS FROM IA INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
LATE SAT NT AND SUN...BRISK NELY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ALONG WITH HIGH
WAVES. THE WINDS AND WINDS WILL SUBSIDE SUNDAY EVENING AS A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER LAKE MI.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST SUNDAY
     NIGHT FOR LMZ644>646.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 PM CST SUNDAY FOR LMZ643.

&&

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...GEHRING
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...COLLAR





000
FXUS63 KMKX 240334
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
934 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

.UPDATE...

THE BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES AHEAD OF THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS WILL EXIT THE KENOSHA AREA SHORTLY.

THE 00Z NAM CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN THE CLIPPER AS IT MOVES ACROSS
IOWA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS SUNDAY MORNING.
THE 00Z NAM IS CLOSE TO THE 18Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF TRACK. 00Z NAM
HAS AROUND 0.25 INCH OF PRECIPITATION OVER LAFAYETTE COUNTY
SOUTHWEST OF MADISON...TO AROUND 0.10 IN SHEBOYGAN TO MILWAUKEE.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...

MVFR CIGS WILL PUSH INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TONIGHT FROM THE NORTH
BEHIND A DEPARTING SURFACE TROUGH. MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST INTO
SATURDAY MORNING...BUT SHOULD CLEAR MOST AREAS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH
AND WEST OF MADISON BY OR DURING THE AFTERNOON.

MVFR CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED AFTER 03Z SATURDAY EVENING AS CIGS AND
VSBYS LOWER WITH THE APPROACH OF A CLIPPER TYPE LOW TRACKING
ACROSS IOWA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. EXPECT CIGS/VSBYS TO LOWER TO IFR
AFTER 06Z SATURDAY EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015/

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

500 MB SHORTWAVE IS PUSHING ITS WAY THROUGH THE STATE AT 21Z.
CURRENT RADAR LOOPS SHOW A LINEAR STRIPE OF REFLECTIVITY AT THIS
TIME. HOWEVER...DRY MID-LEVEL AIR IS PROHIBITING ANY PRECIPITATION
FROM REACHING THE GROUND. THE MAIN CONCERN TONIGHT WILL BE CLOUD
COVER. THERE IS A LITTLE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING OF PARTIAL
CLEARING WHICH IS CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH CENTRAL WI. THERE
COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF PARTIAL CLEARING MOVING THROUGH S WI THIS
EVENING BETWEEN 00-06Z UNTIL ANOTHER STRATUS DECK MOVES IN DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...LINGERING THROUGH SATURDAY. CONDITIONS
WILL BE QUIET SATURDAY AFTERNOON UNTIL AN ADDITIONAL 500 MB
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

SHORT TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

MOST MODELS TRENDING FARTHER SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WITH SYSTEM...AND THE
ASSOCIATED QPF MAX...AS THE UPPER JET MAX DRIVING THE DEEPENING 500
MB SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIVES WELL WEST THROUGH THE DAKOTAS. THE 12Z
NAM HOLDING STEADY WITH A TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE OTHERS...
THROUGH A BIT FASTER...DUE TO THE JET MAX NOT DIVING QUITE AS FAR
SOUTH AS SOON...LEAVING THE LEFT EXIT REGION FARTHER TO THE
NORTHEAST.

THE 12 GFS TAKES THE SURFACE LOW THROUGH WESTERN IOWA TO NEAR ST
LOUIS BY 18Z SUNDAY VERSUS THE 06Z RUN THAT TOOK THE LOW THROUGH
EASTERN IOWA TO THE PONTIAC/BLOOMINGTON AREA BY 18Z...WHICH IS CLOSE
TO THE TRACK OF THE 12Z NAM. THE 12Z CANADIAN GEM AND ECMWF ARE JUST
A BIT TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE 12Z GFS TRACK.

MOST MODELS TAKE PCPN OUT OF THE CWA BY AFTERNOON...WITH THE NAM A
BIT SLOWER LINGERING PCPN INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. SOME CONCERN FOR
LAKE ENHANCEMENT/LAKE EFFECT SNOW WITH EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW BEHIND
THE LOW.

GOING WITH A BLENDED SOLUTION STILL YIELDS WIDESPREAD 2 TO 3 INCH
AMOUNTS...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS RUNNING FROM WEST CENTRAL PORTIONS
OF THE CWA TO THE SE. LOCATIONS ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN FROM MILWAUKEE
AND SOUTH WILL SEE BETWEEN 3 AND 3.5 INCHES WITH LAKE-EFFECT
POTENTIAL. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES FROM SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS
TO SUNDAY HIGHS AS CLOUDS HOLD TEMPS UP SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH COOLER
AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE LOW LIMITS TEMP RISE ON SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

WILL KEEP CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES IN THE FAR SE SUNDAY NIGHT WHERE 1000-900 MB
CONVERGENCE LINGERS. OTHERWISE A QUIET PERIOD AS WEAK RIDGING MOVES
ACROSS STATE AHEAD OF NEXT SHORT WAVE IN BUSY NW FLOW PATTERN.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH EXTENT AND TIMING OF WARM AIR ADVECTION PCPN
WITH NEXT WAVE...LEADING TO LOW CHANCE POPS ALL DAY MONDAY...RISING
TO CHANCE POPS MONDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE LOW DROPS THROUGH THE REGION.
MODELS DIFFER TO TRACK OF LOW...WITH THE NAM TRACKING THE LOW FROM
WRN LAKE SUPERIOR TO MUSKEGON BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z TUESDAY. THIS
COULD GREATLY REDUCE QPF AND SNOW AMOUNTS FROM CONSENSUS...WHICH IS
GENERALLY ONLY BETWEEN 0.5 INCH AND 1 INCH.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE

STILL ON CYCLONIC SIDE OF BROAD 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S.
TUESDAY MORNING WITH SHEARED VORT CHANNEL SHIFTING TO THE EAST
AROUND MID-DAY TUESDAY. QUIET AND RELATIVELY MILD TEMPERATURES
UNTIL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS BRINGS
SMALL CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...WITH
ANOTHER CHANCE WITH YET ANOTHER WAVE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING DUE TO SLIGHT
CLEARING IN S WI...WITH CIGS ABOVE 3000 FT. CLOUD COVER WILL RETURN
LATER TONIGHT AS AN ADDITIONAL STRATUS DECK MOVES IN DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. P6SM VSBYS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS WELL. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL TURN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT.

MARINE...

WILL CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT ADVY UNTIL 03Z THIS EVENING AS BLUSTERY
WEST WINDS CONTINUE. WINDS AND WAVES WILL SLOWLY DECREASE BELOW
CRITERIA BEFORE 03Z.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HENTZ
TONIGHT/SATURDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...JTS
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...REM





000
FXUS63 KMKX 240334
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
934 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

.UPDATE...

THE BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES AHEAD OF THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS WILL EXIT THE KENOSHA AREA SHORTLY.

THE 00Z NAM CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN THE CLIPPER AS IT MOVES ACROSS
IOWA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS SUNDAY MORNING.
THE 00Z NAM IS CLOSE TO THE 18Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF TRACK. 00Z NAM
HAS AROUND 0.25 INCH OF PRECIPITATION OVER LAFAYETTE COUNTY
SOUTHWEST OF MADISON...TO AROUND 0.10 IN SHEBOYGAN TO MILWAUKEE.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...

MVFR CIGS WILL PUSH INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TONIGHT FROM THE NORTH
BEHIND A DEPARTING SURFACE TROUGH. MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST INTO
SATURDAY MORNING...BUT SHOULD CLEAR MOST AREAS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH
AND WEST OF MADISON BY OR DURING THE AFTERNOON.

MVFR CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED AFTER 03Z SATURDAY EVENING AS CIGS AND
VSBYS LOWER WITH THE APPROACH OF A CLIPPER TYPE LOW TRACKING
ACROSS IOWA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. EXPECT CIGS/VSBYS TO LOWER TO IFR
AFTER 06Z SATURDAY EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015/

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

500 MB SHORTWAVE IS PUSHING ITS WAY THROUGH THE STATE AT 21Z.
CURRENT RADAR LOOPS SHOW A LINEAR STRIPE OF REFLECTIVITY AT THIS
TIME. HOWEVER...DRY MID-LEVEL AIR IS PROHIBITING ANY PRECIPITATION
FROM REACHING THE GROUND. THE MAIN CONCERN TONIGHT WILL BE CLOUD
COVER. THERE IS A LITTLE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING OF PARTIAL
CLEARING WHICH IS CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH CENTRAL WI. THERE
COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF PARTIAL CLEARING MOVING THROUGH S WI THIS
EVENING BETWEEN 00-06Z UNTIL ANOTHER STRATUS DECK MOVES IN DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...LINGERING THROUGH SATURDAY. CONDITIONS
WILL BE QUIET SATURDAY AFTERNOON UNTIL AN ADDITIONAL 500 MB
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

SHORT TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

MOST MODELS TRENDING FARTHER SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WITH SYSTEM...AND THE
ASSOCIATED QPF MAX...AS THE UPPER JET MAX DRIVING THE DEEPENING 500
MB SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIVES WELL WEST THROUGH THE DAKOTAS. THE 12Z
NAM HOLDING STEADY WITH A TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE OTHERS...
THROUGH A BIT FASTER...DUE TO THE JET MAX NOT DIVING QUITE AS FAR
SOUTH AS SOON...LEAVING THE LEFT EXIT REGION FARTHER TO THE
NORTHEAST.

THE 12 GFS TAKES THE SURFACE LOW THROUGH WESTERN IOWA TO NEAR ST
LOUIS BY 18Z SUNDAY VERSUS THE 06Z RUN THAT TOOK THE LOW THROUGH
EASTERN IOWA TO THE PONTIAC/BLOOMINGTON AREA BY 18Z...WHICH IS CLOSE
TO THE TRACK OF THE 12Z NAM. THE 12Z CANADIAN GEM AND ECMWF ARE JUST
A BIT TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE 12Z GFS TRACK.

MOST MODELS TAKE PCPN OUT OF THE CWA BY AFTERNOON...WITH THE NAM A
BIT SLOWER LINGERING PCPN INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. SOME CONCERN FOR
LAKE ENHANCEMENT/LAKE EFFECT SNOW WITH EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW BEHIND
THE LOW.

GOING WITH A BLENDED SOLUTION STILL YIELDS WIDESPREAD 2 TO 3 INCH
AMOUNTS...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS RUNNING FROM WEST CENTRAL PORTIONS
OF THE CWA TO THE SE. LOCATIONS ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN FROM MILWAUKEE
AND SOUTH WILL SEE BETWEEN 3 AND 3.5 INCHES WITH LAKE-EFFECT
POTENTIAL. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES FROM SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS
TO SUNDAY HIGHS AS CLOUDS HOLD TEMPS UP SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH COOLER
AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE LOW LIMITS TEMP RISE ON SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

WILL KEEP CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES IN THE FAR SE SUNDAY NIGHT WHERE 1000-900 MB
CONVERGENCE LINGERS. OTHERWISE A QUIET PERIOD AS WEAK RIDGING MOVES
ACROSS STATE AHEAD OF NEXT SHORT WAVE IN BUSY NW FLOW PATTERN.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH EXTENT AND TIMING OF WARM AIR ADVECTION PCPN
WITH NEXT WAVE...LEADING TO LOW CHANCE POPS ALL DAY MONDAY...RISING
TO CHANCE POPS MONDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE LOW DROPS THROUGH THE REGION.
MODELS DIFFER TO TRACK OF LOW...WITH THE NAM TRACKING THE LOW FROM
WRN LAKE SUPERIOR TO MUSKEGON BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z TUESDAY. THIS
COULD GREATLY REDUCE QPF AND SNOW AMOUNTS FROM CONSENSUS...WHICH IS
GENERALLY ONLY BETWEEN 0.5 INCH AND 1 INCH.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE

STILL ON CYCLONIC SIDE OF BROAD 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S.
TUESDAY MORNING WITH SHEARED VORT CHANNEL SHIFTING TO THE EAST
AROUND MID-DAY TUESDAY. QUIET AND RELATIVELY MILD TEMPERATURES
UNTIL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS BRINGS
SMALL CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...WITH
ANOTHER CHANCE WITH YET ANOTHER WAVE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING DUE TO SLIGHT
CLEARING IN S WI...WITH CIGS ABOVE 3000 FT. CLOUD COVER WILL RETURN
LATER TONIGHT AS AN ADDITIONAL STRATUS DECK MOVES IN DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. P6SM VSBYS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS WELL. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL TURN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT.

MARINE...

WILL CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT ADVY UNTIL 03Z THIS EVENING AS BLUSTERY
WEST WINDS CONTINUE. WINDS AND WAVES WILL SLOWLY DECREASE BELOW
CRITERIA BEFORE 03Z.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HENTZ
TONIGHT/SATURDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...JTS
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...REM




000
FXUS63 KMKX 240334
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
934 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

.UPDATE...

THE BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES AHEAD OF THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS WILL EXIT THE KENOSHA AREA SHORTLY.

THE 00Z NAM CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN THE CLIPPER AS IT MOVES ACROSS
IOWA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS SUNDAY MORNING.
THE 00Z NAM IS CLOSE TO THE 18Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF TRACK. 00Z NAM
HAS AROUND 0.25 INCH OF PRECIPITATION OVER LAFAYETTE COUNTY
SOUTHWEST OF MADISON...TO AROUND 0.10 IN SHEBOYGAN TO MILWAUKEE.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...

MVFR CIGS WILL PUSH INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TONIGHT FROM THE NORTH
BEHIND A DEPARTING SURFACE TROUGH. MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST INTO
SATURDAY MORNING...BUT SHOULD CLEAR MOST AREAS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH
AND WEST OF MADISON BY OR DURING THE AFTERNOON.

MVFR CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED AFTER 03Z SATURDAY EVENING AS CIGS AND
VSBYS LOWER WITH THE APPROACH OF A CLIPPER TYPE LOW TRACKING
ACROSS IOWA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. EXPECT CIGS/VSBYS TO LOWER TO IFR
AFTER 06Z SATURDAY EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015/

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

500 MB SHORTWAVE IS PUSHING ITS WAY THROUGH THE STATE AT 21Z.
CURRENT RADAR LOOPS SHOW A LINEAR STRIPE OF REFLECTIVITY AT THIS
TIME. HOWEVER...DRY MID-LEVEL AIR IS PROHIBITING ANY PRECIPITATION
FROM REACHING THE GROUND. THE MAIN CONCERN TONIGHT WILL BE CLOUD
COVER. THERE IS A LITTLE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING OF PARTIAL
CLEARING WHICH IS CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH CENTRAL WI. THERE
COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF PARTIAL CLEARING MOVING THROUGH S WI THIS
EVENING BETWEEN 00-06Z UNTIL ANOTHER STRATUS DECK MOVES IN DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...LINGERING THROUGH SATURDAY. CONDITIONS
WILL BE QUIET SATURDAY AFTERNOON UNTIL AN ADDITIONAL 500 MB
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

SHORT TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

MOST MODELS TRENDING FARTHER SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WITH SYSTEM...AND THE
ASSOCIATED QPF MAX...AS THE UPPER JET MAX DRIVING THE DEEPENING 500
MB SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIVES WELL WEST THROUGH THE DAKOTAS. THE 12Z
NAM HOLDING STEADY WITH A TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE OTHERS...
THROUGH A BIT FASTER...DUE TO THE JET MAX NOT DIVING QUITE AS FAR
SOUTH AS SOON...LEAVING THE LEFT EXIT REGION FARTHER TO THE
NORTHEAST.

THE 12 GFS TAKES THE SURFACE LOW THROUGH WESTERN IOWA TO NEAR ST
LOUIS BY 18Z SUNDAY VERSUS THE 06Z RUN THAT TOOK THE LOW THROUGH
EASTERN IOWA TO THE PONTIAC/BLOOMINGTON AREA BY 18Z...WHICH IS CLOSE
TO THE TRACK OF THE 12Z NAM. THE 12Z CANADIAN GEM AND ECMWF ARE JUST
A BIT TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE 12Z GFS TRACK.

MOST MODELS TAKE PCPN OUT OF THE CWA BY AFTERNOON...WITH THE NAM A
BIT SLOWER LINGERING PCPN INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. SOME CONCERN FOR
LAKE ENHANCEMENT/LAKE EFFECT SNOW WITH EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW BEHIND
THE LOW.

GOING WITH A BLENDED SOLUTION STILL YIELDS WIDESPREAD 2 TO 3 INCH
AMOUNTS...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS RUNNING FROM WEST CENTRAL PORTIONS
OF THE CWA TO THE SE. LOCATIONS ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN FROM MILWAUKEE
AND SOUTH WILL SEE BETWEEN 3 AND 3.5 INCHES WITH LAKE-EFFECT
POTENTIAL. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES FROM SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS
TO SUNDAY HIGHS AS CLOUDS HOLD TEMPS UP SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH COOLER
AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE LOW LIMITS TEMP RISE ON SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

WILL KEEP CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES IN THE FAR SE SUNDAY NIGHT WHERE 1000-900 MB
CONVERGENCE LINGERS. OTHERWISE A QUIET PERIOD AS WEAK RIDGING MOVES
ACROSS STATE AHEAD OF NEXT SHORT WAVE IN BUSY NW FLOW PATTERN.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH EXTENT AND TIMING OF WARM AIR ADVECTION PCPN
WITH NEXT WAVE...LEADING TO LOW CHANCE POPS ALL DAY MONDAY...RISING
TO CHANCE POPS MONDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE LOW DROPS THROUGH THE REGION.
MODELS DIFFER TO TRACK OF LOW...WITH THE NAM TRACKING THE LOW FROM
WRN LAKE SUPERIOR TO MUSKEGON BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z TUESDAY. THIS
COULD GREATLY REDUCE QPF AND SNOW AMOUNTS FROM CONSENSUS...WHICH IS
GENERALLY ONLY BETWEEN 0.5 INCH AND 1 INCH.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE

STILL ON CYCLONIC SIDE OF BROAD 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S.
TUESDAY MORNING WITH SHEARED VORT CHANNEL SHIFTING TO THE EAST
AROUND MID-DAY TUESDAY. QUIET AND RELATIVELY MILD TEMPERATURES
UNTIL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS BRINGS
SMALL CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...WITH
ANOTHER CHANCE WITH YET ANOTHER WAVE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING DUE TO SLIGHT
CLEARING IN S WI...WITH CIGS ABOVE 3000 FT. CLOUD COVER WILL RETURN
LATER TONIGHT AS AN ADDITIONAL STRATUS DECK MOVES IN DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. P6SM VSBYS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS WELL. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL TURN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT.

MARINE...

WILL CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT ADVY UNTIL 03Z THIS EVENING AS BLUSTERY
WEST WINDS CONTINUE. WINDS AND WAVES WILL SLOWLY DECREASE BELOW
CRITERIA BEFORE 03Z.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HENTZ
TONIGHT/SATURDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...JTS
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...REM




000
FXUS63 KMKX 240334
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
934 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

.UPDATE...

THE BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES AHEAD OF THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS WILL EXIT THE KENOSHA AREA SHORTLY.

THE 00Z NAM CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN THE CLIPPER AS IT MOVES ACROSS
IOWA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS SUNDAY MORNING.
THE 00Z NAM IS CLOSE TO THE 18Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF TRACK. 00Z NAM
HAS AROUND 0.25 INCH OF PRECIPITATION OVER LAFAYETTE COUNTY
SOUTHWEST OF MADISON...TO AROUND 0.10 IN SHEBOYGAN TO MILWAUKEE.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...

MVFR CIGS WILL PUSH INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TONIGHT FROM THE NORTH
BEHIND A DEPARTING SURFACE TROUGH. MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST INTO
SATURDAY MORNING...BUT SHOULD CLEAR MOST AREAS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH
AND WEST OF MADISON BY OR DURING THE AFTERNOON.

MVFR CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED AFTER 03Z SATURDAY EVENING AS CIGS AND
VSBYS LOWER WITH THE APPROACH OF A CLIPPER TYPE LOW TRACKING
ACROSS IOWA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. EXPECT CIGS/VSBYS TO LOWER TO IFR
AFTER 06Z SATURDAY EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015/

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

500 MB SHORTWAVE IS PUSHING ITS WAY THROUGH THE STATE AT 21Z.
CURRENT RADAR LOOPS SHOW A LINEAR STRIPE OF REFLECTIVITY AT THIS
TIME. HOWEVER...DRY MID-LEVEL AIR IS PROHIBITING ANY PRECIPITATION
FROM REACHING THE GROUND. THE MAIN CONCERN TONIGHT WILL BE CLOUD
COVER. THERE IS A LITTLE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING OF PARTIAL
CLEARING WHICH IS CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH CENTRAL WI. THERE
COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF PARTIAL CLEARING MOVING THROUGH S WI THIS
EVENING BETWEEN 00-06Z UNTIL ANOTHER STRATUS DECK MOVES IN DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...LINGERING THROUGH SATURDAY. CONDITIONS
WILL BE QUIET SATURDAY AFTERNOON UNTIL AN ADDITIONAL 500 MB
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

SHORT TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

MOST MODELS TRENDING FARTHER SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WITH SYSTEM...AND THE
ASSOCIATED QPF MAX...AS THE UPPER JET MAX DRIVING THE DEEPENING 500
MB SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIVES WELL WEST THROUGH THE DAKOTAS. THE 12Z
NAM HOLDING STEADY WITH A TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE OTHERS...
THROUGH A BIT FASTER...DUE TO THE JET MAX NOT DIVING QUITE AS FAR
SOUTH AS SOON...LEAVING THE LEFT EXIT REGION FARTHER TO THE
NORTHEAST.

THE 12 GFS TAKES THE SURFACE LOW THROUGH WESTERN IOWA TO NEAR ST
LOUIS BY 18Z SUNDAY VERSUS THE 06Z RUN THAT TOOK THE LOW THROUGH
EASTERN IOWA TO THE PONTIAC/BLOOMINGTON AREA BY 18Z...WHICH IS CLOSE
TO THE TRACK OF THE 12Z NAM. THE 12Z CANADIAN GEM AND ECMWF ARE JUST
A BIT TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE 12Z GFS TRACK.

MOST MODELS TAKE PCPN OUT OF THE CWA BY AFTERNOON...WITH THE NAM A
BIT SLOWER LINGERING PCPN INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. SOME CONCERN FOR
LAKE ENHANCEMENT/LAKE EFFECT SNOW WITH EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW BEHIND
THE LOW.

GOING WITH A BLENDED SOLUTION STILL YIELDS WIDESPREAD 2 TO 3 INCH
AMOUNTS...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS RUNNING FROM WEST CENTRAL PORTIONS
OF THE CWA TO THE SE. LOCATIONS ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN FROM MILWAUKEE
AND SOUTH WILL SEE BETWEEN 3 AND 3.5 INCHES WITH LAKE-EFFECT
POTENTIAL. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES FROM SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS
TO SUNDAY HIGHS AS CLOUDS HOLD TEMPS UP SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH COOLER
AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE LOW LIMITS TEMP RISE ON SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

WILL KEEP CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES IN THE FAR SE SUNDAY NIGHT WHERE 1000-900 MB
CONVERGENCE LINGERS. OTHERWISE A QUIET PERIOD AS WEAK RIDGING MOVES
ACROSS STATE AHEAD OF NEXT SHORT WAVE IN BUSY NW FLOW PATTERN.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH EXTENT AND TIMING OF WARM AIR ADVECTION PCPN
WITH NEXT WAVE...LEADING TO LOW CHANCE POPS ALL DAY MONDAY...RISING
TO CHANCE POPS MONDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE LOW DROPS THROUGH THE REGION.
MODELS DIFFER TO TRACK OF LOW...WITH THE NAM TRACKING THE LOW FROM
WRN LAKE SUPERIOR TO MUSKEGON BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z TUESDAY. THIS
COULD GREATLY REDUCE QPF AND SNOW AMOUNTS FROM CONSENSUS...WHICH IS
GENERALLY ONLY BETWEEN 0.5 INCH AND 1 INCH.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE

STILL ON CYCLONIC SIDE OF BROAD 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S.
TUESDAY MORNING WITH SHEARED VORT CHANNEL SHIFTING TO THE EAST
AROUND MID-DAY TUESDAY. QUIET AND RELATIVELY MILD TEMPERATURES
UNTIL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS BRINGS
SMALL CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...WITH
ANOTHER CHANCE WITH YET ANOTHER WAVE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING DUE TO SLIGHT
CLEARING IN S WI...WITH CIGS ABOVE 3000 FT. CLOUD COVER WILL RETURN
LATER TONIGHT AS AN ADDITIONAL STRATUS DECK MOVES IN DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. P6SM VSBYS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS WELL. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL TURN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT.

MARINE...

WILL CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT ADVY UNTIL 03Z THIS EVENING AS BLUSTERY
WEST WINDS CONTINUE. WINDS AND WAVES WILL SLOWLY DECREASE BELOW
CRITERIA BEFORE 03Z.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HENTZ
TONIGHT/SATURDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...JTS
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...REM





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