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000
FXUS63 KMKX 210937
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
337 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

A WEAK 500/250 MB UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS WEAKENS AS IT MOVES
ACROSS WISCONSIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A WEAK TROUGH IN A MORE
ZONAL FLOW TONIGHT. WEAK UPPER DIVERGENCE TONIGHT.  WEAK 700 MB
UPWARD MOTION BEGINS THIS AFTERNOON INCREASING AS LITTLE MORE LATE
TONIGHT.  THE LOWER LAYERS SATURATE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF WARM AIR
AND MOISTURE ADVECTION.  NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS BECOME FAIRLY
SATURATED THROUGHOUT AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH JUST A HINT OF ELEVATED
CAPE...ONLY 1 TO 2 JOULES/KG.

SURFACE LAYERS REMAIN COLD...WITH THE 3 TO 7 THSD FT LAYER RISING
ABOVE FREEZING...RESULTING IN A FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING DRIZZLE
SOUNDING.  THE NAM/GFS/ AND 00Z ECMWF ALL BRING SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION BY MIDNIGHT SOUTHWEST OF MADISON AND AFTER MIDNIGHT
OVER THE REST OF THE SOUTH HALF.  WILL ISSUE A FREEZING RAIN
ADVISORY IN THE AREAS WITH SEVERAL HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF
LIQUID PRECIPITATION.

WILL ISSUE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORIES FOR ABOUT THE SOUTH HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA FOR LATE TONIGHT.

.SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

WARM ADVECTION WILL PERSIST ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
SATURDAY...WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND AND A CHANCE OF RAIN. MAY END UP
SEEING MAINLY DRIZZLE GIVEN MODEL SOUNDINGS. KEPT MENTION OF
FREEZING RAIN DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH MODELS SHOWING
SURFACE TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING BY MID-MORNING.

STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN APPROACH THE AREA
SUNDAY...REACHING SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN BY AROUND MIDNIGHT SUNDAY
NIGHT. THERE IS A DECENT AMOUNT LIFT WITH THIS SYSTEM THROUGHOUT
ALL LEVELS...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING TO AROUND
AN INCH. RAISED POPS EVEN MORE...WITH AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN
EXPECTED. LEFT THUNDER MENTION OUT FOR NOW...THOUGH ELEVATED
LIFTED INDEX VALUES DO DROP TO AROUND -1...SO WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED BY A RUMBLE OR TWO.

RAIN WILL WIND DOWN SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG
MODELS...BUT LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD COME TO AN END BETWEEN MIDNIGHT
AND DAYBREAK. OPTED TO NOT TRANSITION TO SNOW AS COLDER AIR MOVES
IN SINCE SOUNDINGS SHOW A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF DRYING WITH THE
COLD ADVECTION.

.MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

SHOULD SEE A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES...WITH SOME SNOW LINGERING OVERNIGHT AS THE
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY
LESS THAN AN INCH.

TUESDAY LOOKS MAINLY DRY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES BY TO
THE SOUTH.

LOW PRESSURE MAY THEN BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS SUGGESTS AN INCH OR
LESS...WITH THE ECMWF ABOUT 1 TO 2 INCHES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
APPROACH ON THANKSGIVING...WITH CURRENT MODEL RUNS INDICATING DRY
WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE DAY.

TEMPS WILL TURN COLD AGAIN NEXT WEEK...WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES UNDER A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE.  THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE EAST BY NOON WITH
A DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW.  THIS SATURATES LATER TONIGHT
RESULTING IN LIGHT FREEZING RAIN...JUST BEFORE  MIDNIGHT SOUTH
AND WEST OF MADISON AND AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN.
CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD DROP TO MVFR CONDITIONS AS THE PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPS AND MAY DROP TO IFR BY SUNRISE SATURDAY.

THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE HIGHEST IN SOUTH AREAS...AND LOWEST TO
THE NORTH TOWARDS THE DELLS AND FOND DU LAC.  THE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD TURN OVER TO ALL RAIN BETWEEN 14Z AND 15Z SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED THIS MORNING AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE MICHIGAN AREA.

WARM ADVECTION ON 30-40 KNOT 925 MB WINDS MOVES IN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT INITIAL LOW-LEVEL INVERSION WILL PREVENT IMMEDIATE
MIXING UP TO THESE STRONGER WINDS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE
DEVELOPING BRISK SOUTH WINDS. STILL LOOKS LIKE A GOOD POTENTIAL FOR
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN FROM AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CST SATURDAY FOR WIZ059-
     060-064>066-070>072.

     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM CST
     SATURDAY FOR WIZ062-063-067>069.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM CST SUNDAY
     FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...DDV




000
FXUS63 KMKX 210937
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
337 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

A WEAK 500/250 MB UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS WEAKENS AS IT MOVES
ACROSS WISCONSIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A WEAK TROUGH IN A MORE
ZONAL FLOW TONIGHT. WEAK UPPER DIVERGENCE TONIGHT.  WEAK 700 MB
UPWARD MOTION BEGINS THIS AFTERNOON INCREASING AS LITTLE MORE LATE
TONIGHT.  THE LOWER LAYERS SATURATE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF WARM AIR
AND MOISTURE ADVECTION.  NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS BECOME FAIRLY
SATURATED THROUGHOUT AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH JUST A HINT OF ELEVATED
CAPE...ONLY 1 TO 2 JOULES/KG.

SURFACE LAYERS REMAIN COLD...WITH THE 3 TO 7 THSD FT LAYER RISING
ABOVE FREEZING...RESULTING IN A FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING DRIZZLE
SOUNDING.  THE NAM/GFS/ AND 00Z ECMWF ALL BRING SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION BY MIDNIGHT SOUTHWEST OF MADISON AND AFTER MIDNIGHT
OVER THE REST OF THE SOUTH HALF.  WILL ISSUE A FREEZING RAIN
ADVISORY IN THE AREAS WITH SEVERAL HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF
LIQUID PRECIPITATION.

WILL ISSUE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORIES FOR ABOUT THE SOUTH HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA FOR LATE TONIGHT.

.SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

WARM ADVECTION WILL PERSIST ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
SATURDAY...WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND AND A CHANCE OF RAIN. MAY END UP
SEEING MAINLY DRIZZLE GIVEN MODEL SOUNDINGS. KEPT MENTION OF
FREEZING RAIN DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH MODELS SHOWING
SURFACE TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING BY MID-MORNING.

STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN APPROACH THE AREA
SUNDAY...REACHING SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN BY AROUND MIDNIGHT SUNDAY
NIGHT. THERE IS A DECENT AMOUNT LIFT WITH THIS SYSTEM THROUGHOUT
ALL LEVELS...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING TO AROUND
AN INCH. RAISED POPS EVEN MORE...WITH AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN
EXPECTED. LEFT THUNDER MENTION OUT FOR NOW...THOUGH ELEVATED
LIFTED INDEX VALUES DO DROP TO AROUND -1...SO WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED BY A RUMBLE OR TWO.

RAIN WILL WIND DOWN SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG
MODELS...BUT LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD COME TO AN END BETWEEN MIDNIGHT
AND DAYBREAK. OPTED TO NOT TRANSITION TO SNOW AS COLDER AIR MOVES
IN SINCE SOUNDINGS SHOW A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF DRYING WITH THE
COLD ADVECTION.

.MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

SHOULD SEE A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES...WITH SOME SNOW LINGERING OVERNIGHT AS THE
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY
LESS THAN AN INCH.

TUESDAY LOOKS MAINLY DRY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES BY TO
THE SOUTH.

LOW PRESSURE MAY THEN BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS SUGGESTS AN INCH OR
LESS...WITH THE ECMWF ABOUT 1 TO 2 INCHES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
APPROACH ON THANKSGIVING...WITH CURRENT MODEL RUNS INDICATING DRY
WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE DAY.

TEMPS WILL TURN COLD AGAIN NEXT WEEK...WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES UNDER A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE.  THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE EAST BY NOON WITH
A DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW.  THIS SATURATES LATER TONIGHT
RESULTING IN LIGHT FREEZING RAIN...JUST BEFORE  MIDNIGHT SOUTH
AND WEST OF MADISON AND AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN.
CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD DROP TO MVFR CONDITIONS AS THE PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPS AND MAY DROP TO IFR BY SUNRISE SATURDAY.

THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE HIGHEST IN SOUTH AREAS...AND LOWEST TO
THE NORTH TOWARDS THE DELLS AND FOND DU LAC.  THE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD TURN OVER TO ALL RAIN BETWEEN 14Z AND 15Z SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED THIS MORNING AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE MICHIGAN AREA.

WARM ADVECTION ON 30-40 KNOT 925 MB WINDS MOVES IN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT INITIAL LOW-LEVEL INVERSION WILL PREVENT IMMEDIATE
MIXING UP TO THESE STRONGER WINDS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE
DEVELOPING BRISK SOUTH WINDS. STILL LOOKS LIKE A GOOD POTENTIAL FOR
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN FROM AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CST SATURDAY FOR WIZ059-
     060-064>066-070>072.

     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM CST
     SATURDAY FOR WIZ062-063-067>069.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM CST SUNDAY
     FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...DDV





000
FXUS63 KMKX 210327
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
927 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.UPDATE...
TEMPERATURES TO THE WEST UNDER THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING
FAST WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES. SOME MIXING WITH 5 TO 10
MPH WINDS DUE TO LINGERING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER SRN WI...BUT
THIS GRADIENT WILL MOVE EAST. LOWERED TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES
WHICH BRINGS LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ON EITHER SIDE OF
ZERO...CLOSER TO BUT NOT AS LOW AS LATEST HRRR. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR FAVORED LOW-LYING LOCATIONS IF WINDS DIE SOONER THAN
EXPECTED.

LATEST NAM BRINGS LIGHT MEASURABLE PCPN INTO THE FAR SW CWA
BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z AND ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE CWA BY 09Z.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE PCPN TO BE FREEZING RAIN...WITH A
PERIOD OF PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR AN HOUR OR TWO BEFORE THE
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES UNDER APPROACHING RIDGE OF SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE. WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK BETWEEN 500 FT AND 1K FT WILL
BE AROUND 20-25 KTS THROUGH MIDNIGHT...THEN EASING THROUGH
DAYBREAK. LATEST NAM KEEPING MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION...WHICH
SHOULD FALL AS LIGHT FREEZING RAIN...OUT OF THE TAF SITES UNTIL
AFTER 06Z SATURDAY. LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR AN
HOUR OR TWO BEFORE THE FREEZING RAIN BEGINS. STILL EXPECT THE
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN TO SPREAD OVER ALL THE SITES BY 09Z....WITH
THE PRECIPITATION TURNING OVER TO ALL RAIN BETWEEN 14Z AND 15Z
SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS AT SHORELINE OBSERVATION SITES HAVE FALLEN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS...BUT SHIP OBS ARE STILL TOO CLOSE TO CRITERIA TO
DROP HEADLINE AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE
THROUGH THE LATE EVENING.

WARM ADVECTION ON 30-40 KNOT 925 MB WINDS MOVES IN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT INITIAL LOW-LEVEL INVERSION WILL PREVENT IMMEDIATE
MIXING UP TO THESE STRONGER WINDS. LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A NEED
FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH AT
LEAST THE DAY SATURDAY FOR WINDS. STILL LOOKS LIKE A GOOD
POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN FROM AFTER MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT
UNTIL MID-MORNING SATURDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

SKIES WILL BE CLEAR TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES
TO THE SOUTH. CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES SURFACE TEMPS IN
THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS WEST AND UPPER SINGLE DIGITS NEAR THE LAKE.
HAVE LOWERED TEMPS SLIGHTLY ACROSS INLAND AREAS AS 925 MB TEMPS
AROUND -14C SUGGEST LOWS SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO IN THE NW CWA.

WARM AIR ADVECTION KICKS IN AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
YIELDING HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S. CLOUDS WILL START TO PUSH
INTO SOUTHWEST WI LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW WILL PREVAIL FOR FRI NT INTO SAT NT BEFORE
BECOMING MORE MERIDIONAL WITH STRONG CYCLOGENESIS ON SUN AND SUN
NT. THIS WILL BRING A WARMING TREND INTO THE 40S FOR THE WEEKEND.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
ACROSS SRN WI AND NRN IL FOR LATE FRI NT AND SAT AM. LOW TO MID
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL OCCUR OVER A LARGE AREA OF THE REGION
AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE AND IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE POLAR HIGH
SHIFTING EWD TO THE EAST COAST. OVERALL...LIFT IS WEAK WITH PWS
RISING TO TWO THIRDS OF AN INCH. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW STRATUS
FORMING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE AND FREEZING RAIN.
SE WI WILL SEE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR MORE STEADY FREEZING PCPN.
THIS WILL LINGER INTO SAT WITH SFC TEMPS WARMING ABOVE FREEZING BY
14-15Z.

SLY FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION WILL THEN CONTINUE TO WARM TEMPS INTO
SUN...AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER TX LIFTS NWD TOWARD THE
GREAT LAKES FOR SUN AND SUN NT. STRONG CYCLOGENESIS IS DEPICTED ON
THE ECMWF AND GFS WITH A 987 MB LOW OVER CENTRAL IL BY 00Z MON
CONTINUING INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES ON MON AS A 976 MB LOW.
WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL DEVELOP ON SUN WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN SUN AFT
AND NIGHT. AN INCH OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. BRISK WLY WINDS AND
STRONG COLD ADVECTION TO ENSUE MON AM WITH CONTINUED CHANCES FOR
RAIN/SNOW AS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
FROM THE NRN PLAINS. THE PCPN CHANCES WILL EVENTUALLY BE ALL LIGHT
SNOW LATER ON MONDAY AND CONTINUE INTO TUE WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
AND SECONDARY COLD FRONT LINGERING. HIGH TEMPS BY TUE WILL ONLY BE
IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

NW FLOW AND COLD TEMPS WILL PREVAIL. A CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY BRING
LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA LATE WED AND WED NT AND THEN BE FOLLOWED BY
A LARGER UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NRN PLAINS FOR THU.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL SUNSET
AND THEN WILL BECOME WEST NORTHWEST AND WEAKEN THIS EVENING.
LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT BECOMING SOUTHWEST TOMORROW
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHING THE REGION WILL BRING MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING INTO TOMORROW. WINDS MAY GUST TO 15 KTS
AT EASTERN TAF SITES TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND WILL INCREASE FURTHER
AT ALL TAF SITES FRIDAY EVENING.

MARINE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST THIS EVENING
BEFORE WEAKENING AFTER MIDNIGHT. LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH OF THE REGION.

WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY
BE NEEDED. WINDS AND WAVES MAY REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AT
TIMES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST FRIDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...REM
TONIGHT/FRIDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...SM
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...GEHRING





000
FXUS63 KMKX 210327
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
927 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.UPDATE...
TEMPERATURES TO THE WEST UNDER THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING
FAST WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES. SOME MIXING WITH 5 TO 10
MPH WINDS DUE TO LINGERING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER SRN WI...BUT
THIS GRADIENT WILL MOVE EAST. LOWERED TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES
WHICH BRINGS LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ON EITHER SIDE OF
ZERO...CLOSER TO BUT NOT AS LOW AS LATEST HRRR. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR FAVORED LOW-LYING LOCATIONS IF WINDS DIE SOONER THAN
EXPECTED.

LATEST NAM BRINGS LIGHT MEASURABLE PCPN INTO THE FAR SW CWA
BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z AND ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE CWA BY 09Z.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE PCPN TO BE FREEZING RAIN...WITH A
PERIOD OF PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR AN HOUR OR TWO BEFORE THE
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES UNDER APPROACHING RIDGE OF SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE. WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK BETWEEN 500 FT AND 1K FT WILL
BE AROUND 20-25 KTS THROUGH MIDNIGHT...THEN EASING THROUGH
DAYBREAK. LATEST NAM KEEPING MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION...WHICH
SHOULD FALL AS LIGHT FREEZING RAIN...OUT OF THE TAF SITES UNTIL
AFTER 06Z SATURDAY. LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR AN
HOUR OR TWO BEFORE THE FREEZING RAIN BEGINS. STILL EXPECT THE
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN TO SPREAD OVER ALL THE SITES BY 09Z....WITH
THE PRECIPITATION TURNING OVER TO ALL RAIN BETWEEN 14Z AND 15Z
SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS AT SHORELINE OBSERVATION SITES HAVE FALLEN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS...BUT SHIP OBS ARE STILL TOO CLOSE TO CRITERIA TO
DROP HEADLINE AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE
THROUGH THE LATE EVENING.

WARM ADVECTION ON 30-40 KNOT 925 MB WINDS MOVES IN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT INITIAL LOW-LEVEL INVERSION WILL PREVENT IMMEDIATE
MIXING UP TO THESE STRONGER WINDS. LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A NEED
FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH AT
LEAST THE DAY SATURDAY FOR WINDS. STILL LOOKS LIKE A GOOD
POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN FROM AFTER MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT
UNTIL MID-MORNING SATURDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

SKIES WILL BE CLEAR TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES
TO THE SOUTH. CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES SURFACE TEMPS IN
THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS WEST AND UPPER SINGLE DIGITS NEAR THE LAKE.
HAVE LOWERED TEMPS SLIGHTLY ACROSS INLAND AREAS AS 925 MB TEMPS
AROUND -14C SUGGEST LOWS SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO IN THE NW CWA.

WARM AIR ADVECTION KICKS IN AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
YIELDING HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S. CLOUDS WILL START TO PUSH
INTO SOUTHWEST WI LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW WILL PREVAIL FOR FRI NT INTO SAT NT BEFORE
BECOMING MORE MERIDIONAL WITH STRONG CYCLOGENESIS ON SUN AND SUN
NT. THIS WILL BRING A WARMING TREND INTO THE 40S FOR THE WEEKEND.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
ACROSS SRN WI AND NRN IL FOR LATE FRI NT AND SAT AM. LOW TO MID
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL OCCUR OVER A LARGE AREA OF THE REGION
AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE AND IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE POLAR HIGH
SHIFTING EWD TO THE EAST COAST. OVERALL...LIFT IS WEAK WITH PWS
RISING TO TWO THIRDS OF AN INCH. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW STRATUS
FORMING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE AND FREEZING RAIN.
SE WI WILL SEE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR MORE STEADY FREEZING PCPN.
THIS WILL LINGER INTO SAT WITH SFC TEMPS WARMING ABOVE FREEZING BY
14-15Z.

SLY FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION WILL THEN CONTINUE TO WARM TEMPS INTO
SUN...AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER TX LIFTS NWD TOWARD THE
GREAT LAKES FOR SUN AND SUN NT. STRONG CYCLOGENESIS IS DEPICTED ON
THE ECMWF AND GFS WITH A 987 MB LOW OVER CENTRAL IL BY 00Z MON
CONTINUING INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES ON MON AS A 976 MB LOW.
WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL DEVELOP ON SUN WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN SUN AFT
AND NIGHT. AN INCH OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. BRISK WLY WINDS AND
STRONG COLD ADVECTION TO ENSUE MON AM WITH CONTINUED CHANCES FOR
RAIN/SNOW AS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
FROM THE NRN PLAINS. THE PCPN CHANCES WILL EVENTUALLY BE ALL LIGHT
SNOW LATER ON MONDAY AND CONTINUE INTO TUE WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
AND SECONDARY COLD FRONT LINGERING. HIGH TEMPS BY TUE WILL ONLY BE
IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

NW FLOW AND COLD TEMPS WILL PREVAIL. A CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY BRING
LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA LATE WED AND WED NT AND THEN BE FOLLOWED BY
A LARGER UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NRN PLAINS FOR THU.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL SUNSET
AND THEN WILL BECOME WEST NORTHWEST AND WEAKEN THIS EVENING.
LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT BECOMING SOUTHWEST TOMORROW
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHING THE REGION WILL BRING MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING INTO TOMORROW. WINDS MAY GUST TO 15 KTS
AT EASTERN TAF SITES TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND WILL INCREASE FURTHER
AT ALL TAF SITES FRIDAY EVENING.

MARINE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST THIS EVENING
BEFORE WEAKENING AFTER MIDNIGHT. LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH OF THE REGION.

WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY
BE NEEDED. WINDS AND WAVES MAY REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AT
TIMES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST FRIDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...REM
TONIGHT/FRIDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...SM
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...GEHRING




000
FXUS63 KMKX 202129
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
329 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

SKIES WILL BE CLEAR TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES
TO THE SOUTH. CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES SURFACE TEMPS IN
THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS WEST AND UPPER SINGLE DIGITS NEAR THE LAKE.
HAVE LOWERED TEMPS SLIGHTLY ACROSS INLAND AREAS AS 925 MB TEMPS
AROUND -14C SUGGEST LOWS SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO IN THE NW CWA.

WARM AIR ADVECTION KICKS IN AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
YIELDING HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S. CLOUDS WILL START TO PUSH
INTO SOUTHWEST WI LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW WILL PREVAIL FOR FRI NT INTO SAT NT BEFORE
BECOMING MORE MERIDIONAL WITH STRONG CYCLOGENESIS ON SUN AND SUN
NT. THIS WILL BRING A WARMING TREND INTO THE 40S FOR THE WEEKEND.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
ACROSS SRN WI AND NRN IL FOR LATE FRI NT AND SAT AM. LOW TO MID
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL OCCUR OVER A LARGE AREA OF THE REGION
AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE AND IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE POLAR HIGH
SHIFTING EWD TO THE EAST COAST. OVERALL...LIFT IS WEAK WITH PWS
RISING TO TWO THIRDS OF AN INCH. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW STRATUS
FORMING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE AND FREEZING RAIN.
SE WI WILL SEE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR MORE STEADY FREEZING PCPN.
THIS WILL LINGER INTO SAT WITH SFC TEMPS WARMING ABOVE FREEZING BY
14-15Z.

SLY FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION WILL THEN CONTINUE TO WARM TEMPS INTO
SUN...AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER TX LIFTS NWD TOWARD THE
GREAT LAKES FOR SUN AND SUN NT. STRONG CYCLOGENESIS IS DEPICTED ON
THE ECMWF AND GFS WITH A 987 MB LOW OVER CENTRAL IL BY 00Z MON
CONTINUING INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES ON MON AS A 976 MB LOW.
WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL DEVELOP ON SUN WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN SUN AFT
AND NIGHT. AN INCH OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. BRISK WLY WINDS AND
STRONG COLD ADVECTION TO ENSUE MON AM WITH CONTINUED CHANCES FOR
RAIN/SNOW AS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
FROM THE NRN PLAINS. THE PCPN CHANCES WILL EVENTUALLY BE ALL LIGHT
SNOW LATER ON MONDAY AND CONTINUE INTO TUE WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
AND SECONDARY COLD FRONT LINGERING. HIGH TEMPS BY TUE WILL ONLY BE
IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

NW FLOW AND COLD TEMPS WILL PREVAIL. A CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY BRING
LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA LATE WED AND WED NT AND THEN BE FOLLOWED BY
A LARGER UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NRN PLAINS FOR THU.


&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL SUNSET
AND THEN WILL BECOME WEST NORTHWEST AND WEAKEN THIS EVENING.
LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT BECOMING SOUTHWEST TOMORROW
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHING THE REGION WILL BRING MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING INTO TOMORROW. WINDS MAY GUST TO 15 KTS
AT EASTERN TAF SITES TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND WILL INCREASE FURTHER
AT ALL TAF SITES FRIDAY EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST THIS EVENING
BEFORE WEAKENING AFTER MIDNIGHT. LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH OF THE REGION.

WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY
BE NEEDED. WINDS AND WAVES MAY REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AT
TIMES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST FRIDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

TONIGHT/FRIDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...SM
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...GEHRING




000
FXUS63 KMKX 202129
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
329 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

SKIES WILL BE CLEAR TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES
TO THE SOUTH. CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES SURFACE TEMPS IN
THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS WEST AND UPPER SINGLE DIGITS NEAR THE LAKE.
HAVE LOWERED TEMPS SLIGHTLY ACROSS INLAND AREAS AS 925 MB TEMPS
AROUND -14C SUGGEST LOWS SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO IN THE NW CWA.

WARM AIR ADVECTION KICKS IN AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
YIELDING HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S. CLOUDS WILL START TO PUSH
INTO SOUTHWEST WI LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW WILL PREVAIL FOR FRI NT INTO SAT NT BEFORE
BECOMING MORE MERIDIONAL WITH STRONG CYCLOGENESIS ON SUN AND SUN
NT. THIS WILL BRING A WARMING TREND INTO THE 40S FOR THE WEEKEND.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
ACROSS SRN WI AND NRN IL FOR LATE FRI NT AND SAT AM. LOW TO MID
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL OCCUR OVER A LARGE AREA OF THE REGION
AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE AND IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE POLAR HIGH
SHIFTING EWD TO THE EAST COAST. OVERALL...LIFT IS WEAK WITH PWS
RISING TO TWO THIRDS OF AN INCH. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW STRATUS
FORMING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE AND FREEZING RAIN.
SE WI WILL SEE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR MORE STEADY FREEZING PCPN.
THIS WILL LINGER INTO SAT WITH SFC TEMPS WARMING ABOVE FREEZING BY
14-15Z.

SLY FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION WILL THEN CONTINUE TO WARM TEMPS INTO
SUN...AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER TX LIFTS NWD TOWARD THE
GREAT LAKES FOR SUN AND SUN NT. STRONG CYCLOGENESIS IS DEPICTED ON
THE ECMWF AND GFS WITH A 987 MB LOW OVER CENTRAL IL BY 00Z MON
CONTINUING INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES ON MON AS A 976 MB LOW.
WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL DEVELOP ON SUN WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN SUN AFT
AND NIGHT. AN INCH OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. BRISK WLY WINDS AND
STRONG COLD ADVECTION TO ENSUE MON AM WITH CONTINUED CHANCES FOR
RAIN/SNOW AS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
FROM THE NRN PLAINS. THE PCPN CHANCES WILL EVENTUALLY BE ALL LIGHT
SNOW LATER ON MONDAY AND CONTINUE INTO TUE WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
AND SECONDARY COLD FRONT LINGERING. HIGH TEMPS BY TUE WILL ONLY BE
IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

NW FLOW AND COLD TEMPS WILL PREVAIL. A CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY BRING
LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA LATE WED AND WED NT AND THEN BE FOLLOWED BY
A LARGER UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NRN PLAINS FOR THU.


&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL SUNSET
AND THEN WILL BECOME WEST NORTHWEST AND WEAKEN THIS EVENING.
LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT BECOMING SOUTHWEST TOMORROW
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHING THE REGION WILL BRING MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING INTO TOMORROW. WINDS MAY GUST TO 15 KTS
AT EASTERN TAF SITES TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND WILL INCREASE FURTHER
AT ALL TAF SITES FRIDAY EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST THIS EVENING
BEFORE WEAKENING AFTER MIDNIGHT. LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH OF THE REGION.

WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY
BE NEEDED. WINDS AND WAVES MAY REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AT
TIMES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST FRIDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

TONIGHT/FRIDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...SM
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...GEHRING





000
FXUS63 KMKX 201751 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1151 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.UPDATE...

SCATTERED TO BROKEN SKIES OVER THE NORTHEAST CWA SHOULD BECOME
MOSTLY CLEAR BY THIS EVENING. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO LOWER 20S. CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE PASSING
TO THE SOUTH WILL DROP LOW TEMPERATURES TO THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS
OR POSSIBLY BELOW ZERO IN THE NORTHWEST CWA.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND THEN WILL BECOME
NORTHWEST AND WEAKEN THIS EVENING. LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT
BECOMING LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TOMORROW MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE APPROACHING THE REGION WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS
EVENING INTO TOMORROW.


&&

.MARINE...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.
GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST THIS EVENING BEFORE
WEAKENING AFTER MIDNIGHT. LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH OF THE REGION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

A BROAD 250 MB UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THIS
MORNING THAT MOVES OFF TOWARD NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT...WITH A
NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.

LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPPER DIVERGENCE TODAY. A MID LEVEL 500 MB
SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN IN THE
CYCLONIC FLOW THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.  ONLY WEAK 700 MB
UPWARD MOTION WITH THE SHORTWAVE. THEN DOWNWARD MOTION TONIGHT.

AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS KEEP THE SHALLOW MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS
WITHIN DENDRITE SNOW GROWTH ZONE INTO THE AFTERNOON...SO KEPT
FLURRY MENTION GOING DURING THIS TIME...ESPECIALLY NORTH AREAS
CLOSER TO THE SHORTWAVE.  NO ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP BRISK WEST WINDS GOING...WITH
GRADUAL COLD AIR ADVECTION. 925 MB TEMPERATURE FIELDS SUGGEST HIGHS
IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS IN MOST AREAS. WIND CHILLS SHOULD BE
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO TODAY.

A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TONIGHT.  THE
CLEARING SKIES...AND DIMINISHING WINDS WILL DROP TEMPERATURES INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS MOST AREAS.

FRIDAY - CONFIDENCE...HIGH
SURFACE HIGH EXPECTED TO SHIFT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WITH
PRONOUNCED 925/850 WAA RETURN FLOW SETTING UP. MID LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES ANTICYCLONIC WITH UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE STAYING TO THE WEST.
925 TEMPS MODERATE TO -2C TO -4. EXPECT TEMPS TO NUDGE INTO THE
MID 20S. MOISTURE FEED LIKELY TO RESULT IN WIDESPREAD STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT AND THIS IS REFLECTED WELL IN THE 925/850 RH PANELS.
AT THIS TIME THIS ALSO STAYS TO OUR WEST DURING FRIDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
EXPECTING SKIES TO QUICKLY CLOUD OVER AS STRATUS ADVECTS
NORTHEAST INTO SRN WI. THE WARM/MOIST ADVECTION REGIME WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN A NON- DIURNAL TEMP PROFILE WITH COLDEST TEMPS OBSERVED
IN THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE CLOUDS AND WARM PUSH STRENGTHENS
FURTHER. INFLUENCE OF QUICK HITTING SHORTWAVE ARRIVES AFTER 6Z.
MOISTURE PROFILE IS SHALLOW WITH VERY LITTLE RH IN THE DENDRIDIC
GROWTH ZONE. PRONOUNCED WARM LAYER WITH LINGERING COLDER SURFACE
TEMPS SUGGESTS KEEPING SOME LIGHT ZR OR ZL IN PLACE. QPF AMOUNTS
ARE MEAGER.

SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
MILDER AIRMASS PROGGD TO BE IN PLACE WITH 850/925 TEMPS WELL
ABOVE ZERO CELSIUS. BROAD WAA/MOIST ADVECTION PERSISTS THOUGH
BETTER FORCING/BAROCLINICITY LIFTS NORTH AND INTERACTS WITH A
NORTHERN STREAM WAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST. QPF AMOUNTS ONLY A FEW
HUNDREDTHS AND MORE OVER THE SOUTHEAST CWA. DEBATED ON GOING DRY
ALL TOGETHER IN THE NW CWA BUT TOO CLOSE OF A CALL BUT WENT SLIGHT
CHANCE THERE. MUCH OF CWA SHOULD REACH THE LOW/MID 40S. EXPECT
SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY GETTING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS LOW
LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SSE AND ON THE LIGHTER SIDE. AIRMASS
LIKELY QUITE MOIST IN THE LOW LEVELS. ANOTHER WING OF WAA PRECIP
WRAPS INTO THE AREA LATER IN THE NIGHT AHEAD OF EVOLVING CENTRAL
PLAINS LOW PRESSURE.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
PRIMARY SURGE OF RAIN ARRIVES WITH POTENT STRONGLY NEGATIVELY
TILTED SHORTWAVE FROM SOUTHERN PLAINS. CYCLOGENESIS INCREASES WITH
TIME TO A 981MB LOW IN NRN IL BY THE END OF THE DAY. DECENT
AGREEMENT ON THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST WITH COLDER
AIR AND MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WRAPING IN AROUND THE LOW SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. SO EXPECT SOME CHANGEOVER TO OCCUR AS THE
PROFILE/COLUMN COOLS. LOW LEVEL TROUGH AND UPPER CYCLONIC FLOW
WILL KEEP SNOW SHOWER CHANCES GOING MONDAY WITH SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE.

TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
LINGERING CYCLONIC FLOW AND LOW LEVEL TROUGHINESSS SUGGESTS
KEEPING CHCY POPS GOING PER SUPERBLEND. GFS HAS COME AROUND TO
SHOWING AT LEAST SOME MEASURABLE QPF WITH THIS PATTERN SO EXPECT
SHSN ACTIVITY WHICH MAY EVENTUALLY NECESSITATE A BOOST IN THE
POPS.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW
WEAK RIDGING PROGGD TO SETTLE IN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. THEN TIMING
DIFFERENCES ARISE WITH THE ECMWF A BIT MORE QUICK WITH DEVELOPING
WAA BAND OF LIGHT SNOW ON WEDNESDAY. THE GFS DOES NOT BRING THIS
UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SUPERBLEND BROUGHT POP INTO WESTERN CWA BUT
PER COLLAB WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES GOING DRY FOR NOW BUT IF THE
QUICKER TRENDS OF THE ECMWF BECOME PERSISTENT THE POP WILL BE
NEEDED.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...EXPECT SCATTERED TO BROKEN MVFR CIGS TO RETURN
TODAY...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS NORTH OF MADISON TO KENOSHA AS A MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. SHOULD SEE A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBYS. NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
EXPECTED. WINDS HAVE LOWERED A BIT BUT EXPECTED TO COME BACK UP WITH
GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS LATER THIS MORNING.

A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TONIGHT WITH
CLEARING SKIES...AND DIMINISHING WINDS.

MARINE...WINDS AT SHORELINE SITES HAVE LOWERED WITH WEST WINDS
DECOUPLED A BIT OVER THE COLD LAND SURFACE...HOWEVER MID-LAKE
BUOY SHOWING WINDS ABOVE CRITERIA WITH BETTER MIXING OVER WARMER
LAKE WATERS SO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES. SHORELINE WINDS
EXPECTED TO REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LATER THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON.

A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TONIGHT WITH
DIMINISHING WINDS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST FRIDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SM
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...COLLAR




000
FXUS63 KMKX 201751 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1151 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.UPDATE...

SCATTERED TO BROKEN SKIES OVER THE NORTHEAST CWA SHOULD BECOME
MOSTLY CLEAR BY THIS EVENING. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO LOWER 20S. CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE PASSING
TO THE SOUTH WILL DROP LOW TEMPERATURES TO THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS
OR POSSIBLY BELOW ZERO IN THE NORTHWEST CWA.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND THEN WILL BECOME
NORTHWEST AND WEAKEN THIS EVENING. LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT
BECOMING LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TOMORROW MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE APPROACHING THE REGION WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS
EVENING INTO TOMORROW.


&&

.MARINE...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.
GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST THIS EVENING BEFORE
WEAKENING AFTER MIDNIGHT. LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH OF THE REGION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

A BROAD 250 MB UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THIS
MORNING THAT MOVES OFF TOWARD NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT...WITH A
NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.

LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPPER DIVERGENCE TODAY. A MID LEVEL 500 MB
SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN IN THE
CYCLONIC FLOW THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.  ONLY WEAK 700 MB
UPWARD MOTION WITH THE SHORTWAVE. THEN DOWNWARD MOTION TONIGHT.

AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS KEEP THE SHALLOW MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS
WITHIN DENDRITE SNOW GROWTH ZONE INTO THE AFTERNOON...SO KEPT
FLURRY MENTION GOING DURING THIS TIME...ESPECIALLY NORTH AREAS
CLOSER TO THE SHORTWAVE.  NO ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP BRISK WEST WINDS GOING...WITH
GRADUAL COLD AIR ADVECTION. 925 MB TEMPERATURE FIELDS SUGGEST HIGHS
IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS IN MOST AREAS. WIND CHILLS SHOULD BE
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO TODAY.

A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TONIGHT.  THE
CLEARING SKIES...AND DIMINISHING WINDS WILL DROP TEMPERATURES INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS MOST AREAS.

FRIDAY - CONFIDENCE...HIGH
SURFACE HIGH EXPECTED TO SHIFT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WITH
PRONOUNCED 925/850 WAA RETURN FLOW SETTING UP. MID LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES ANTICYCLONIC WITH UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE STAYING TO THE WEST.
925 TEMPS MODERATE TO -2C TO -4. EXPECT TEMPS TO NUDGE INTO THE
MID 20S. MOISTURE FEED LIKELY TO RESULT IN WIDESPREAD STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT AND THIS IS REFLECTED WELL IN THE 925/850 RH PANELS.
AT THIS TIME THIS ALSO STAYS TO OUR WEST DURING FRIDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
EXPECTING SKIES TO QUICKLY CLOUD OVER AS STRATUS ADVECTS
NORTHEAST INTO SRN WI. THE WARM/MOIST ADVECTION REGIME WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN A NON- DIURNAL TEMP PROFILE WITH COLDEST TEMPS OBSERVED
IN THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE CLOUDS AND WARM PUSH STRENGTHENS
FURTHER. INFLUENCE OF QUICK HITTING SHORTWAVE ARRIVES AFTER 6Z.
MOISTURE PROFILE IS SHALLOW WITH VERY LITTLE RH IN THE DENDRIDIC
GROWTH ZONE. PRONOUNCED WARM LAYER WITH LINGERING COLDER SURFACE
TEMPS SUGGESTS KEEPING SOME LIGHT ZR OR ZL IN PLACE. QPF AMOUNTS
ARE MEAGER.

SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
MILDER AIRMASS PROGGD TO BE IN PLACE WITH 850/925 TEMPS WELL
ABOVE ZERO CELSIUS. BROAD WAA/MOIST ADVECTION PERSISTS THOUGH
BETTER FORCING/BAROCLINICITY LIFTS NORTH AND INTERACTS WITH A
NORTHERN STREAM WAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST. QPF AMOUNTS ONLY A FEW
HUNDREDTHS AND MORE OVER THE SOUTHEAST CWA. DEBATED ON GOING DRY
ALL TOGETHER IN THE NW CWA BUT TOO CLOSE OF A CALL BUT WENT SLIGHT
CHANCE THERE. MUCH OF CWA SHOULD REACH THE LOW/MID 40S. EXPECT
SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY GETTING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS LOW
LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SSE AND ON THE LIGHTER SIDE. AIRMASS
LIKELY QUITE MOIST IN THE LOW LEVELS. ANOTHER WING OF WAA PRECIP
WRAPS INTO THE AREA LATER IN THE NIGHT AHEAD OF EVOLVING CENTRAL
PLAINS LOW PRESSURE.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
PRIMARY SURGE OF RAIN ARRIVES WITH POTENT STRONGLY NEGATIVELY
TILTED SHORTWAVE FROM SOUTHERN PLAINS. CYCLOGENESIS INCREASES WITH
TIME TO A 981MB LOW IN NRN IL BY THE END OF THE DAY. DECENT
AGREEMENT ON THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST WITH COLDER
AIR AND MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WRAPING IN AROUND THE LOW SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. SO EXPECT SOME CHANGEOVER TO OCCUR AS THE
PROFILE/COLUMN COOLS. LOW LEVEL TROUGH AND UPPER CYCLONIC FLOW
WILL KEEP SNOW SHOWER CHANCES GOING MONDAY WITH SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE.

TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
LINGERING CYCLONIC FLOW AND LOW LEVEL TROUGHINESSS SUGGESTS
KEEPING CHCY POPS GOING PER SUPERBLEND. GFS HAS COME AROUND TO
SHOWING AT LEAST SOME MEASURABLE QPF WITH THIS PATTERN SO EXPECT
SHSN ACTIVITY WHICH MAY EVENTUALLY NECESSITATE A BOOST IN THE
POPS.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW
WEAK RIDGING PROGGD TO SETTLE IN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. THEN TIMING
DIFFERENCES ARISE WITH THE ECMWF A BIT MORE QUICK WITH DEVELOPING
WAA BAND OF LIGHT SNOW ON WEDNESDAY. THE GFS DOES NOT BRING THIS
UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SUPERBLEND BROUGHT POP INTO WESTERN CWA BUT
PER COLLAB WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES GOING DRY FOR NOW BUT IF THE
QUICKER TRENDS OF THE ECMWF BECOME PERSISTENT THE POP WILL BE
NEEDED.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...EXPECT SCATTERED TO BROKEN MVFR CIGS TO RETURN
TODAY...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS NORTH OF MADISON TO KENOSHA AS A MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. SHOULD SEE A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBYS. NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
EXPECTED. WINDS HAVE LOWERED A BIT BUT EXPECTED TO COME BACK UP WITH
GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS LATER THIS MORNING.

A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TONIGHT WITH
CLEARING SKIES...AND DIMINISHING WINDS.

MARINE...WINDS AT SHORELINE SITES HAVE LOWERED WITH WEST WINDS
DECOUPLED A BIT OVER THE COLD LAND SURFACE...HOWEVER MID-LAKE
BUOY SHOWING WINDS ABOVE CRITERIA WITH BETTER MIXING OVER WARMER
LAKE WATERS SO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES. SHORELINE WINDS
EXPECTED TO REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LATER THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON.

A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TONIGHT WITH
DIMINISHING WINDS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST FRIDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SM
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...COLLAR





000
FXUS63 KMKX 200900
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
300 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

A BROAD 250 MB UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THIS
MORNING THAT MOVES OFF TOWARD NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT...WITH A
NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.

LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPPER DIVERGENCE TODAY. A MID LEVEL 500 MB
SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN IN THE
CYCLONIC FLOW THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.  ONLY WEAK 700 MB
UPWARD MOTION WITH THE SHORTWAVE. THEN DOWNWARD MOTION TONIGHT.

AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS KEEP THE SHALLOW MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS
WITHIN DENDRITE SNOW GROWTH ZONE INTO THE AFTERNOON...SO KEPT
FLURRY MENTION GOING DURING THIS TIME...ESPECIALLY NORTH AREAS
CLOSER TO THE SHORTWAVE.  NO ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP BRISK WEST WINDS GOING...WITH
GRADUAL COLD AIR ADVECTION. 925 MB TEMPERATURE FIELDS SUGGEST HIGHS
IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS IN MOST AREAS. WIND CHILLS SHOULD BE
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO TODAY.

A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TONIGHT.  THE
CLEARING SKIES...AND DIMINISHING WINDS WILL DROP TEMPERATURES INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS MOST AREAS.

.FRIDAY - CONFIDENCE...HIGH
SURFACE HIGH EXPECTED TO SHIFT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WITH
PRONOUNCED 925/850 WAA RETURN FLOW SETTING UP. MID LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES ANTICYCLONIC WITH UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE STAYING TO THE WEST.
925 TEMPS MODERATE TO -2C TO -4. EXPECT TEMPS TO NUDGE INTO THE
MID 20S. MOISTURE FEED LIKELY TO RESULT IN WIDESPREAD STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT AND THIS IS REFLECTED WELL IN THE 925/850 RH PANELS.
AT THIS TIME THIS ALSO STAYS TO OUR WEST DURING FRIDAY.

.FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
EXPECTING SKIES TO QUICKLY CLOUD OVER AS STRATUS ADVECTS
NORTHEAST INTO SRN WI. THE WARM/MOIST ADVECTION REGIME WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN A NON- DIURNAL TEMP PROFILE WITH COLDEST TEMPS OBSERVED
IN THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE CLOUDS AND WARM PUSH STRENGTHENS
FURTHER. INFLUENCE OF QUICK HITTING SHORTWAVE ARRIVES AFTER 6Z.
MOISTURE PROFILE IS SHALLOW WITH VERY LITTLE RH IN THE DENDRIDIC
GROWTH ZONE. PRONOUNCED WARM LAYER WITH LINGERING COLDER SURFACE
TEMPS SUGGESTS KEEPING SOME LIGHT ZR OR ZL IN PLACE. QPF AMOUNTS
ARE MEAGER.

.SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
MILDER AIRMASS PROGGD TO BE IN PLACE WITH 850/925 TEMPS WELL
ABOVE ZERO CELSIUS. BROAD WAA/MOIST ADVECTION PERSISTS THOUGH
BETTER FORCING/BAROCLINICITY LIFTS NORTH AND INTERACTS WITH A
NORTHERN STREAM WAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST. QPF AMOUNTS ONLY A FEW
HUNDREDTHS AND MORE OVER THE SOUTHEAST CWA. DEBATED ON GOING DRY
ALL TOGETHER IN THE NW CWA BUT TOO CLOSE OF A CALL BUT WENT SLIGHT
CHANCE THERE. MUCH OF CWA SHOULD REACH THE LOW/MID 40S. EXPECT
SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY GETTING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS LOW
LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SSE AND ON THE LIGHTER SIDE. AIRMASS
LIKELY QUITE MOIST IN THE LOW LEVELS. ANOTHER WING OF WAA PRECIP
WRAPS INTO THE AREA LATER IN THE NIGHT AHEAD OF EVOLVING CENTRAL
PLAINS LOW PRESSURE.

.SUNDAY AND MONDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
PRIMARY SURGE OF RAIN ARRIVES WITH POTENT STRONGLY NEGATIVELY
TILTED SHORTWAVE FROM SOUTHERN PLAINS. CYCLOGENESIS INCREASES WITH
TIME TO A 981MB LOW IN NRN IL BY THE END OF THE DAY. DECENT
AGREEMENT ON THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST WITH COLDER
AIR AND MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WRAPING IN AROUND THE LOW SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. SO EXPECT SOME CHANGEOVER TO OCCUR AS THE
PROFILE/COLUMN COOLS. LOW LEVEL TROUGH AND UPPER CYCLONIC FLOW
WILL KEEP SNOW SHOWER CHANCES GOING MONDAY WITH SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE.

.TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
LINGERING CYCLONIC FLOW AND LOW LEVEL TROUGHINESSS SUGGESTS
KEEPING CHCY POPS GOING PER SUPERBLEND. GFS HAS COME AROUND TO
SHOWING AT LEAST SOME MEASURABLE QPF WITH THIS PATTERN SO EXPECT
SHSN ACTIVITY WHICH MAY EVENTUALLY NECESSITATE A BOOST IN THE
POPS.

.TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW
WEAK RIDGING PROGGD TO SETTLE IN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. THEN TIMING
DIFFERENCES ARISE WITH THE ECMWF A BIT MORE QUICK WITH DEVELOPING
WAA BAND OF LIGHT SNOW ON WEDNESDAY. THE GFS DOES NOT BRING THIS
UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SUPERBLEND BROUGHT POP INTO WESTERN CWA BUT
PER COLLAB WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES GOING DRY FOR NOW BUT IF THE
QUICKER TRENDS OF THE ECMWF BECOME PERSISTENT THE POP WILL BE
NEEDED.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...EXPECT SCATTERED TO BROKEN MVFR CIGS TO RETURN
TODAY...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS NORTH OF MADISON TO KENOSHA AS A MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. SHOULD SEE A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBYS. NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
EXPECTED. WINDS HAVE LOWERED A BIT BUT EXPECTED TO COME BACK UP WITH
GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS LATER THIS MORNING.

A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TONIGHT WITH
CLEARING SKIES...AND DIMINISHING WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AT SHORELINE SITES HAVE LOWERED WITH WEST WINDS
DECOUPLED A BIT OVER THE COLD LAND SURFACE...HOWEVER MID-LAKE
BUOY SHOWING WINDS ABOVE CRITERIA WITH BETTER MIXING OVER WARMER
LAKE WATERS SO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES. SHORELINE WINDS
EXPECTED TO REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LATER THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON.

A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TONIGHT WITH
DIMINISHING WINDS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST FRIDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...COLLAR




000
FXUS63 KMKX 200900
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
300 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

A BROAD 250 MB UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THIS
MORNING THAT MOVES OFF TOWARD NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT...WITH A
NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.

LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPPER DIVERGENCE TODAY. A MID LEVEL 500 MB
SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN IN THE
CYCLONIC FLOW THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.  ONLY WEAK 700 MB
UPWARD MOTION WITH THE SHORTWAVE. THEN DOWNWARD MOTION TONIGHT.

AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS KEEP THE SHALLOW MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS
WITHIN DENDRITE SNOW GROWTH ZONE INTO THE AFTERNOON...SO KEPT
FLURRY MENTION GOING DURING THIS TIME...ESPECIALLY NORTH AREAS
CLOSER TO THE SHORTWAVE.  NO ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP BRISK WEST WINDS GOING...WITH
GRADUAL COLD AIR ADVECTION. 925 MB TEMPERATURE FIELDS SUGGEST HIGHS
IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS IN MOST AREAS. WIND CHILLS SHOULD BE
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO TODAY.

A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TONIGHT.  THE
CLEARING SKIES...AND DIMINISHING WINDS WILL DROP TEMPERATURES INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS MOST AREAS.

.FRIDAY - CONFIDENCE...HIGH
SURFACE HIGH EXPECTED TO SHIFT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WITH
PRONOUNCED 925/850 WAA RETURN FLOW SETTING UP. MID LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES ANTICYCLONIC WITH UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE STAYING TO THE WEST.
925 TEMPS MODERATE TO -2C TO -4. EXPECT TEMPS TO NUDGE INTO THE
MID 20S. MOISTURE FEED LIKELY TO RESULT IN WIDESPREAD STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT AND THIS IS REFLECTED WELL IN THE 925/850 RH PANELS.
AT THIS TIME THIS ALSO STAYS TO OUR WEST DURING FRIDAY.

.FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
EXPECTING SKIES TO QUICKLY CLOUD OVER AS STRATUS ADVECTS
NORTHEAST INTO SRN WI. THE WARM/MOIST ADVECTION REGIME WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN A NON- DIURNAL TEMP PROFILE WITH COLDEST TEMPS OBSERVED
IN THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE CLOUDS AND WARM PUSH STRENGTHENS
FURTHER. INFLUENCE OF QUICK HITTING SHORTWAVE ARRIVES AFTER 6Z.
MOISTURE PROFILE IS SHALLOW WITH VERY LITTLE RH IN THE DENDRIDIC
GROWTH ZONE. PRONOUNCED WARM LAYER WITH LINGERING COLDER SURFACE
TEMPS SUGGESTS KEEPING SOME LIGHT ZR OR ZL IN PLACE. QPF AMOUNTS
ARE MEAGER.

.SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
MILDER AIRMASS PROGGD TO BE IN PLACE WITH 850/925 TEMPS WELL
ABOVE ZERO CELSIUS. BROAD WAA/MOIST ADVECTION PERSISTS THOUGH
BETTER FORCING/BAROCLINICITY LIFTS NORTH AND INTERACTS WITH A
NORTHERN STREAM WAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST. QPF AMOUNTS ONLY A FEW
HUNDREDTHS AND MORE OVER THE SOUTHEAST CWA. DEBATED ON GOING DRY
ALL TOGETHER IN THE NW CWA BUT TOO CLOSE OF A CALL BUT WENT SLIGHT
CHANCE THERE. MUCH OF CWA SHOULD REACH THE LOW/MID 40S. EXPECT
SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY GETTING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS LOW
LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SSE AND ON THE LIGHTER SIDE. AIRMASS
LIKELY QUITE MOIST IN THE LOW LEVELS. ANOTHER WING OF WAA PRECIP
WRAPS INTO THE AREA LATER IN THE NIGHT AHEAD OF EVOLVING CENTRAL
PLAINS LOW PRESSURE.

.SUNDAY AND MONDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
PRIMARY SURGE OF RAIN ARRIVES WITH POTENT STRONGLY NEGATIVELY
TILTED SHORTWAVE FROM SOUTHERN PLAINS. CYCLOGENESIS INCREASES WITH
TIME TO A 981MB LOW IN NRN IL BY THE END OF THE DAY. DECENT
AGREEMENT ON THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST WITH COLDER
AIR AND MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WRAPING IN AROUND THE LOW SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. SO EXPECT SOME CHANGEOVER TO OCCUR AS THE
PROFILE/COLUMN COOLS. LOW LEVEL TROUGH AND UPPER CYCLONIC FLOW
WILL KEEP SNOW SHOWER CHANCES GOING MONDAY WITH SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE.

.TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
LINGERING CYCLONIC FLOW AND LOW LEVEL TROUGHINESSS SUGGESTS
KEEPING CHCY POPS GOING PER SUPERBLEND. GFS HAS COME AROUND TO
SHOWING AT LEAST SOME MEASURABLE QPF WITH THIS PATTERN SO EXPECT
SHSN ACTIVITY WHICH MAY EVENTUALLY NECESSITATE A BOOST IN THE
POPS.

.TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW
WEAK RIDGING PROGGD TO SETTLE IN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. THEN TIMING
DIFFERENCES ARISE WITH THE ECMWF A BIT MORE QUICK WITH DEVELOPING
WAA BAND OF LIGHT SNOW ON WEDNESDAY. THE GFS DOES NOT BRING THIS
UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SUPERBLEND BROUGHT POP INTO WESTERN CWA BUT
PER COLLAB WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES GOING DRY FOR NOW BUT IF THE
QUICKER TRENDS OF THE ECMWF BECOME PERSISTENT THE POP WILL BE
NEEDED.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...EXPECT SCATTERED TO BROKEN MVFR CIGS TO RETURN
TODAY...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS NORTH OF MADISON TO KENOSHA AS A MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. SHOULD SEE A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBYS. NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
EXPECTED. WINDS HAVE LOWERED A BIT BUT EXPECTED TO COME BACK UP WITH
GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS LATER THIS MORNING.

A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TONIGHT WITH
CLEARING SKIES...AND DIMINISHING WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AT SHORELINE SITES HAVE LOWERED WITH WEST WINDS
DECOUPLED A BIT OVER THE COLD LAND SURFACE...HOWEVER MID-LAKE
BUOY SHOWING WINDS ABOVE CRITERIA WITH BETTER MIXING OVER WARMER
LAKE WATERS SO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES. SHORELINE WINDS
EXPECTED TO REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LATER THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON.

A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TONIGHT WITH
DIMINISHING WINDS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST FRIDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...COLLAR





000
FXUS63 KMKX 200343 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
943 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

.UPDATE...

ADJUSTED SKIES FOR MORE CLEARING THIS EVENING THAN EARLIER
FORECAST AND ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES AND WINDS. SCATTERED TO BROKEN
CLOUDS AHEAD OF NEXT SHORT WAVE AND ON LEADING EDGE OF COLDER 925
MB TEMPS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN OVER MOST OF THE AREA AROUND/AFTER
MIDNIGHT...WITH 925 MB TEMPS ABOUT 3C COOLER BY 12Z. PREVIOUS COLD
LOWS TEMPS LOOK ON TRACK.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...

CLOUDS HAVE SCATTERED/CLEARED FOR A TIME...BUT EXPECT BROKEN VFR
CIGS TO RETURN OVERNIGHT WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION AND FORCING
AHEAD OF NEXT SHORT WAVE SPINNING OVER STATE. COULD SEE A FEW
FLURRIES BUT NO VSBY REDUCING SNOW SHOWERS NOR ACCUMULATIONS
EXPECTED. WINDS HAVE LOWERED A BIT BUT EXPECTED TO COME BACK UP
WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS AT SHORELINE OB SITES HAVE LOWERED WITH WEST WINDS DECOUPLING
OVER COLD LAND SURFACE AND CLEARING SKIES...HOWEVER MID-LAKE BUOY
AND SHIP OBS SHOWING WINDS AT OR ABOVE CRITERIA WITH BETTER MIXING OVER
WARMER LAKE WATERS SO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014/

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...CONFIDENCE - HIGH.

AREA OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED MODERATE SNOW SHOWERS ARE
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA...IN ASSOCIATION WITH SOME MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS RESPONSE FIELDS. AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW
SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITHIN DEEP DENDRITE SNOW GROWTH ZONE.
MESOSCALE MODELS NOT HANDLING THIS ACTIVITY WELL. WILL TREND HIGH
POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS DOWNWARD TO FLURRIES BY THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS.

AREA REMAINS IN CYCLONIC FLOW AT 500 MB TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WITH
A STRONG VORTICITY MAXIMUM SLIDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA. AREA
FORECAST SOUNDINGS KEEP THE SHALLOW MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS
WITHIN DENDRITE SNOW GROWTH ZONE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...SO KEPT
FLURRY MENTION GOING DURING THIS TIME. DRIER AIR MOVING IN ON
THURSDAY SHOULD GRADUALLY BRING PARTLY SUNNY SKIES.

A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WILL KEEP BRISK WEST
WINDS GOING...WITH GRADUAL COLD AIR ADVECTION. 925 MB TEMPERATURE
FIELDS SUGGEST LOWS TONIGHT INTO THE 9 TO 13 ABOVE ZERO RANGE...WITH
HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS IN MOST AREAS. WIND CHILLS
WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO LATER TONIGHT...AND
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO FOR THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING OF LOW LAYERS SHOULD END MOST OF
ANY LINGERING FLURRIES EARLY THU EVE SO WL NOT INCLUDE MENTION AT
THIS TIME.

RIDGE AXIS APPROACHING WRN CWA LATE THU NIGHT AND 925H TEMPS AROUND
-13C WL ALLOW OVERNIGHT TEMPS TO DIP WELL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BY
SUNRISE FRI.  FEW LOCATIONS IN THE WEST COULD BE BELOW ZERO. A QUIET
DAY EXPECTED ON FRI AS THE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES THRU WI.  SUNSHINE
SHOULD HELP TEMPS RECOVER INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S...STILL 15 TO 20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON INCREASING
SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RETREATING HIGH PRESSURE
FRI/FRI NIGHT PULLING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK INTO THE WRN
GTLAKES.  LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION MAY BRING SOME LIGHT PRECIP
INTO THE AREA LATER FRI NIGHT AND SAT.  SFC TEMPS WL NOT HAVE HAD
TIME TO RISE TO ABOVE FREEZING...AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LITTLE
IF ANY ICE INTRODUCTION INTO THE MOISTURE LAYER.  LOW LEVEL LAYER
TEMPS AROUND -6C WHICH MAY RESULT IN REFREEZING OF THE LIQUID DROPS
TO SLEET.  ANY QPF WL BE LIGHT...BUT MAY BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE
HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS BY EARLY SAT.  SOUTH WINDS WL CONTINUE
TO PUMP WARMER AIR INTO SRN WI ON SAT...WARMING PAVEMENT TEMPS TO
ABV FREEZING DURING THE DAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

PERSISTENT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF PHASING
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS WL RESULT IN CONTINUED WARMER...ABOVE
FREEZING TEMPS OVER THE WEEKEND.  PHASING OF TWO STREAMS WL CAUSE
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE IN SOUTHERN STREAM TO TAKE A MORE NWD TRACK
FROM THE SOUTHERN MS VALLEY INTO THE SRN LAKE MI AREA SAT NIGHT THRU
SUN EVE.  PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WITH THIS LOW WILL INCREASE TO
AROUND 1.0 OVER SRN WI WHICH IS APPROACHING 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
AND THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR MID-NOVEMBER.  MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER
COLD SFC WL LIKELY RESULT IN AREAS OF FOG DESPITE EXPECTED BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXINESS.

THIS STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION AND TRANSPORT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN TO SRN WI SUN INTO
SUN EVE.  AHEAD OF THIS STRONG SYSTEM...WL CONTINUE LOWER POPS FOR
-RA/-DZ DUE TO LINGERING WEAK ISENTROPIC OMEGA AND LINGERING LOW
LEVEL RH SAT/SAT NGT.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM BRINGING THE WET CONDITIONS LATER IN THE WEEKEND.  BY THAT
TIME...PAVEMENT TEMPS SHALL HAVE WARMED ABOVE FREEZING.

DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WL CONTINUE MOVING NORTH THROUGH THE WRN
GTLAKES SUN NIGHT AND MON.  BRISK WEST WINDS IN ITS WAKE WILL PULL
COLDER AIR INTO SRN WI SUN NIGHT.  THERE MAY BE TIME TO CHANGE THE
-RA OVER TO A MIXTURE OR -SN BEFORE ENDING OR DIMINISHING TO
FLURRIES.

REMNANTS OF SECOND NRN STREAM LOW PRESSURE WL ROTATE AROUND NRN
GTLAKES UPPER LOW EARLY NEXT WEEK AS COLD AIR SETTLES BACK INTO THE
REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE FOR -SHSN MON NGT INTO TUE.
COLD WX WL THEN REMAIN ANCHORED OVER SRN WI THRU MIDWEEK.


AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WITH SOME MODERATE SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH
TAF SITES INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...BEFORE TAPERING OFF TO
FLURRIES TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. GUSTY WEST WINDS SHOULD
LIMIT ANY ACCUMULATIONS TO A DUSTING AT WORST UNTIL AROUND 00Z
THURSDAY.

THE GUSTY WINDS WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY. CEILINGS WILL REMAIN
VFR/MVFR TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...SCATTERING OUT DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

MARINE...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 09Z FRIDAY ACROSS THE
NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE AREA WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR BRISK WEST
WINDS TO 30 KNOTS AT TIMES.

HIGH WAVES WILL BE TOWARD AND OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN...DUE TO THE OFFSHORE FLOW. WINDS AND WAVES WILL SUBSIDE
AFTER 09Z FRIDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE WORKS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST FRIDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...REM
TONIGHT/THURSDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...WOOD
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MBK





000
FXUS63 KMKX 200343 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
943 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

.UPDATE...

ADJUSTED SKIES FOR MORE CLEARING THIS EVENING THAN EARLIER
FORECAST AND ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES AND WINDS. SCATTERED TO BROKEN
CLOUDS AHEAD OF NEXT SHORT WAVE AND ON LEADING EDGE OF COLDER 925
MB TEMPS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN OVER MOST OF THE AREA AROUND/AFTER
MIDNIGHT...WITH 925 MB TEMPS ABOUT 3C COOLER BY 12Z. PREVIOUS COLD
LOWS TEMPS LOOK ON TRACK.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...

CLOUDS HAVE SCATTERED/CLEARED FOR A TIME...BUT EXPECT BROKEN VFR
CIGS TO RETURN OVERNIGHT WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION AND FORCING
AHEAD OF NEXT SHORT WAVE SPINNING OVER STATE. COULD SEE A FEW
FLURRIES BUT NO VSBY REDUCING SNOW SHOWERS NOR ACCUMULATIONS
EXPECTED. WINDS HAVE LOWERED A BIT BUT EXPECTED TO COME BACK UP
WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS AT SHORELINE OB SITES HAVE LOWERED WITH WEST WINDS DECOUPLING
OVER COLD LAND SURFACE AND CLEARING SKIES...HOWEVER MID-LAKE BUOY
AND SHIP OBS SHOWING WINDS AT OR ABOVE CRITERIA WITH BETTER MIXING OVER
WARMER LAKE WATERS SO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014/

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...CONFIDENCE - HIGH.

AREA OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED MODERATE SNOW SHOWERS ARE
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA...IN ASSOCIATION WITH SOME MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS RESPONSE FIELDS. AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW
SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITHIN DEEP DENDRITE SNOW GROWTH ZONE.
MESOSCALE MODELS NOT HANDLING THIS ACTIVITY WELL. WILL TREND HIGH
POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS DOWNWARD TO FLURRIES BY THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS.

AREA REMAINS IN CYCLONIC FLOW AT 500 MB TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WITH
A STRONG VORTICITY MAXIMUM SLIDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA. AREA
FORECAST SOUNDINGS KEEP THE SHALLOW MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS
WITHIN DENDRITE SNOW GROWTH ZONE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...SO KEPT
FLURRY MENTION GOING DURING THIS TIME. DRIER AIR MOVING IN ON
THURSDAY SHOULD GRADUALLY BRING PARTLY SUNNY SKIES.

A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WILL KEEP BRISK WEST
WINDS GOING...WITH GRADUAL COLD AIR ADVECTION. 925 MB TEMPERATURE
FIELDS SUGGEST LOWS TONIGHT INTO THE 9 TO 13 ABOVE ZERO RANGE...WITH
HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS IN MOST AREAS. WIND CHILLS
WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO LATER TONIGHT...AND
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO FOR THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING OF LOW LAYERS SHOULD END MOST OF
ANY LINGERING FLURRIES EARLY THU EVE SO WL NOT INCLUDE MENTION AT
THIS TIME.

RIDGE AXIS APPROACHING WRN CWA LATE THU NIGHT AND 925H TEMPS AROUND
-13C WL ALLOW OVERNIGHT TEMPS TO DIP WELL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BY
SUNRISE FRI.  FEW LOCATIONS IN THE WEST COULD BE BELOW ZERO. A QUIET
DAY EXPECTED ON FRI AS THE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES THRU WI.  SUNSHINE
SHOULD HELP TEMPS RECOVER INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S...STILL 15 TO 20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON INCREASING
SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RETREATING HIGH PRESSURE
FRI/FRI NIGHT PULLING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK INTO THE WRN
GTLAKES.  LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION MAY BRING SOME LIGHT PRECIP
INTO THE AREA LATER FRI NIGHT AND SAT.  SFC TEMPS WL NOT HAVE HAD
TIME TO RISE TO ABOVE FREEZING...AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LITTLE
IF ANY ICE INTRODUCTION INTO THE MOISTURE LAYER.  LOW LEVEL LAYER
TEMPS AROUND -6C WHICH MAY RESULT IN REFREEZING OF THE LIQUID DROPS
TO SLEET.  ANY QPF WL BE LIGHT...BUT MAY BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE
HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS BY EARLY SAT.  SOUTH WINDS WL CONTINUE
TO PUMP WARMER AIR INTO SRN WI ON SAT...WARMING PAVEMENT TEMPS TO
ABV FREEZING DURING THE DAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

PERSISTENT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF PHASING
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS WL RESULT IN CONTINUED WARMER...ABOVE
FREEZING TEMPS OVER THE WEEKEND.  PHASING OF TWO STREAMS WL CAUSE
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE IN SOUTHERN STREAM TO TAKE A MORE NWD TRACK
FROM THE SOUTHERN MS VALLEY INTO THE SRN LAKE MI AREA SAT NIGHT THRU
SUN EVE.  PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WITH THIS LOW WILL INCREASE TO
AROUND 1.0 OVER SRN WI WHICH IS APPROACHING 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
AND THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR MID-NOVEMBER.  MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER
COLD SFC WL LIKELY RESULT IN AREAS OF FOG DESPITE EXPECTED BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXINESS.

THIS STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION AND TRANSPORT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN TO SRN WI SUN INTO
SUN EVE.  AHEAD OF THIS STRONG SYSTEM...WL CONTINUE LOWER POPS FOR
-RA/-DZ DUE TO LINGERING WEAK ISENTROPIC OMEGA AND LINGERING LOW
LEVEL RH SAT/SAT NGT.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM BRINGING THE WET CONDITIONS LATER IN THE WEEKEND.  BY THAT
TIME...PAVEMENT TEMPS SHALL HAVE WARMED ABOVE FREEZING.

DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WL CONTINUE MOVING NORTH THROUGH THE WRN
GTLAKES SUN NIGHT AND MON.  BRISK WEST WINDS IN ITS WAKE WILL PULL
COLDER AIR INTO SRN WI SUN NIGHT.  THERE MAY BE TIME TO CHANGE THE
-RA OVER TO A MIXTURE OR -SN BEFORE ENDING OR DIMINISHING TO
FLURRIES.

REMNANTS OF SECOND NRN STREAM LOW PRESSURE WL ROTATE AROUND NRN
GTLAKES UPPER LOW EARLY NEXT WEEK AS COLD AIR SETTLES BACK INTO THE
REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE FOR -SHSN MON NGT INTO TUE.
COLD WX WL THEN REMAIN ANCHORED OVER SRN WI THRU MIDWEEK.


AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WITH SOME MODERATE SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH
TAF SITES INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...BEFORE TAPERING OFF TO
FLURRIES TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. GUSTY WEST WINDS SHOULD
LIMIT ANY ACCUMULATIONS TO A DUSTING AT WORST UNTIL AROUND 00Z
THURSDAY.

THE GUSTY WINDS WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY. CEILINGS WILL REMAIN
VFR/MVFR TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...SCATTERING OUT DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

MARINE...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 09Z FRIDAY ACROSS THE
NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE AREA WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR BRISK WEST
WINDS TO 30 KNOTS AT TIMES.

HIGH WAVES WILL BE TOWARD AND OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN...DUE TO THE OFFSHORE FLOW. WINDS AND WAVES WILL SUBSIDE
AFTER 09Z FRIDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE WORKS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST FRIDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...REM
TONIGHT/THURSDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...WOOD
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MBK




000
FXUS63 KMKX 200343 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
943 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

.UPDATE...

ADJUSTED SKIES FOR MORE CLEARING THIS EVENING THAN EARLIER
FORECAST AND ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES AND WINDS. SCATTERED TO BROKEN
CLOUDS AHEAD OF NEXT SHORT WAVE AND ON LEADING EDGE OF COLDER 925
MB TEMPS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN OVER MOST OF THE AREA AROUND/AFTER
MIDNIGHT...WITH 925 MB TEMPS ABOUT 3C COOLER BY 12Z. PREVIOUS COLD
LOWS TEMPS LOOK ON TRACK.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...

CLOUDS HAVE SCATTERED/CLEARED FOR A TIME...BUT EXPECT BROKEN VFR
CIGS TO RETURN OVERNIGHT WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION AND FORCING
AHEAD OF NEXT SHORT WAVE SPINNING OVER STATE. COULD SEE A FEW
FLURRIES BUT NO VSBY REDUCING SNOW SHOWERS NOR ACCUMULATIONS
EXPECTED. WINDS HAVE LOWERED A BIT BUT EXPECTED TO COME BACK UP
WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS AT SHORELINE OB SITES HAVE LOWERED WITH WEST WINDS DECOUPLING
OVER COLD LAND SURFACE AND CLEARING SKIES...HOWEVER MID-LAKE BUOY
AND SHIP OBS SHOWING WINDS AT OR ABOVE CRITERIA WITH BETTER MIXING OVER
WARMER LAKE WATERS SO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014/

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...CONFIDENCE - HIGH.

AREA OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED MODERATE SNOW SHOWERS ARE
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA...IN ASSOCIATION WITH SOME MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS RESPONSE FIELDS. AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW
SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITHIN DEEP DENDRITE SNOW GROWTH ZONE.
MESOSCALE MODELS NOT HANDLING THIS ACTIVITY WELL. WILL TREND HIGH
POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS DOWNWARD TO FLURRIES BY THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS.

AREA REMAINS IN CYCLONIC FLOW AT 500 MB TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WITH
A STRONG VORTICITY MAXIMUM SLIDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA. AREA
FORECAST SOUNDINGS KEEP THE SHALLOW MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS
WITHIN DENDRITE SNOW GROWTH ZONE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...SO KEPT
FLURRY MENTION GOING DURING THIS TIME. DRIER AIR MOVING IN ON
THURSDAY SHOULD GRADUALLY BRING PARTLY SUNNY SKIES.

A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WILL KEEP BRISK WEST
WINDS GOING...WITH GRADUAL COLD AIR ADVECTION. 925 MB TEMPERATURE
FIELDS SUGGEST LOWS TONIGHT INTO THE 9 TO 13 ABOVE ZERO RANGE...WITH
HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS IN MOST AREAS. WIND CHILLS
WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO LATER TONIGHT...AND
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO FOR THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING OF LOW LAYERS SHOULD END MOST OF
ANY LINGERING FLURRIES EARLY THU EVE SO WL NOT INCLUDE MENTION AT
THIS TIME.

RIDGE AXIS APPROACHING WRN CWA LATE THU NIGHT AND 925H TEMPS AROUND
-13C WL ALLOW OVERNIGHT TEMPS TO DIP WELL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BY
SUNRISE FRI.  FEW LOCATIONS IN THE WEST COULD BE BELOW ZERO. A QUIET
DAY EXPECTED ON FRI AS THE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES THRU WI.  SUNSHINE
SHOULD HELP TEMPS RECOVER INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S...STILL 15 TO 20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON INCREASING
SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RETREATING HIGH PRESSURE
FRI/FRI NIGHT PULLING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK INTO THE WRN
GTLAKES.  LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION MAY BRING SOME LIGHT PRECIP
INTO THE AREA LATER FRI NIGHT AND SAT.  SFC TEMPS WL NOT HAVE HAD
TIME TO RISE TO ABOVE FREEZING...AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LITTLE
IF ANY ICE INTRODUCTION INTO THE MOISTURE LAYER.  LOW LEVEL LAYER
TEMPS AROUND -6C WHICH MAY RESULT IN REFREEZING OF THE LIQUID DROPS
TO SLEET.  ANY QPF WL BE LIGHT...BUT MAY BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE
HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS BY EARLY SAT.  SOUTH WINDS WL CONTINUE
TO PUMP WARMER AIR INTO SRN WI ON SAT...WARMING PAVEMENT TEMPS TO
ABV FREEZING DURING THE DAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

PERSISTENT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF PHASING
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS WL RESULT IN CONTINUED WARMER...ABOVE
FREEZING TEMPS OVER THE WEEKEND.  PHASING OF TWO STREAMS WL CAUSE
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE IN SOUTHERN STREAM TO TAKE A MORE NWD TRACK
FROM THE SOUTHERN MS VALLEY INTO THE SRN LAKE MI AREA SAT NIGHT THRU
SUN EVE.  PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WITH THIS LOW WILL INCREASE TO
AROUND 1.0 OVER SRN WI WHICH IS APPROACHING 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
AND THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR MID-NOVEMBER.  MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER
COLD SFC WL LIKELY RESULT IN AREAS OF FOG DESPITE EXPECTED BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXINESS.

THIS STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION AND TRANSPORT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN TO SRN WI SUN INTO
SUN EVE.  AHEAD OF THIS STRONG SYSTEM...WL CONTINUE LOWER POPS FOR
-RA/-DZ DUE TO LINGERING WEAK ISENTROPIC OMEGA AND LINGERING LOW
LEVEL RH SAT/SAT NGT.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM BRINGING THE WET CONDITIONS LATER IN THE WEEKEND.  BY THAT
TIME...PAVEMENT TEMPS SHALL HAVE WARMED ABOVE FREEZING.

DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WL CONTINUE MOVING NORTH THROUGH THE WRN
GTLAKES SUN NIGHT AND MON.  BRISK WEST WINDS IN ITS WAKE WILL PULL
COLDER AIR INTO SRN WI SUN NIGHT.  THERE MAY BE TIME TO CHANGE THE
-RA OVER TO A MIXTURE OR -SN BEFORE ENDING OR DIMINISHING TO
FLURRIES.

REMNANTS OF SECOND NRN STREAM LOW PRESSURE WL ROTATE AROUND NRN
GTLAKES UPPER LOW EARLY NEXT WEEK AS COLD AIR SETTLES BACK INTO THE
REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE FOR -SHSN MON NGT INTO TUE.
COLD WX WL THEN REMAIN ANCHORED OVER SRN WI THRU MIDWEEK.


AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WITH SOME MODERATE SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH
TAF SITES INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...BEFORE TAPERING OFF TO
FLURRIES TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. GUSTY WEST WINDS SHOULD
LIMIT ANY ACCUMULATIONS TO A DUSTING AT WORST UNTIL AROUND 00Z
THURSDAY.

THE GUSTY WINDS WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY. CEILINGS WILL REMAIN
VFR/MVFR TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...SCATTERING OUT DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

MARINE...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 09Z FRIDAY ACROSS THE
NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE AREA WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR BRISK WEST
WINDS TO 30 KNOTS AT TIMES.

HIGH WAVES WILL BE TOWARD AND OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN...DUE TO THE OFFSHORE FLOW. WINDS AND WAVES WILL SUBSIDE
AFTER 09Z FRIDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE WORKS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST FRIDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...REM
TONIGHT/THURSDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...WOOD
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MBK




000
FXUS63 KMKX 200343 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
943 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

.UPDATE...

ADJUSTED SKIES FOR MORE CLEARING THIS EVENING THAN EARLIER
FORECAST AND ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES AND WINDS. SCATTERED TO BROKEN
CLOUDS AHEAD OF NEXT SHORT WAVE AND ON LEADING EDGE OF COLDER 925
MB TEMPS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN OVER MOST OF THE AREA AROUND/AFTER
MIDNIGHT...WITH 925 MB TEMPS ABOUT 3C COOLER BY 12Z. PREVIOUS COLD
LOWS TEMPS LOOK ON TRACK.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...

CLOUDS HAVE SCATTERED/CLEARED FOR A TIME...BUT EXPECT BROKEN VFR
CIGS TO RETURN OVERNIGHT WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION AND FORCING
AHEAD OF NEXT SHORT WAVE SPINNING OVER STATE. COULD SEE A FEW
FLURRIES BUT NO VSBY REDUCING SNOW SHOWERS NOR ACCUMULATIONS
EXPECTED. WINDS HAVE LOWERED A BIT BUT EXPECTED TO COME BACK UP
WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS AT SHORELINE OB SITES HAVE LOWERED WITH WEST WINDS DECOUPLING
OVER COLD LAND SURFACE AND CLEARING SKIES...HOWEVER MID-LAKE BUOY
AND SHIP OBS SHOWING WINDS AT OR ABOVE CRITERIA WITH BETTER MIXING OVER
WARMER LAKE WATERS SO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014/

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...CONFIDENCE - HIGH.

AREA OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED MODERATE SNOW SHOWERS ARE
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA...IN ASSOCIATION WITH SOME MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS RESPONSE FIELDS. AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW
SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITHIN DEEP DENDRITE SNOW GROWTH ZONE.
MESOSCALE MODELS NOT HANDLING THIS ACTIVITY WELL. WILL TREND HIGH
POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS DOWNWARD TO FLURRIES BY THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS.

AREA REMAINS IN CYCLONIC FLOW AT 500 MB TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WITH
A STRONG VORTICITY MAXIMUM SLIDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA. AREA
FORECAST SOUNDINGS KEEP THE SHALLOW MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS
WITHIN DENDRITE SNOW GROWTH ZONE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...SO KEPT
FLURRY MENTION GOING DURING THIS TIME. DRIER AIR MOVING IN ON
THURSDAY SHOULD GRADUALLY BRING PARTLY SUNNY SKIES.

A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WILL KEEP BRISK WEST
WINDS GOING...WITH GRADUAL COLD AIR ADVECTION. 925 MB TEMPERATURE
FIELDS SUGGEST LOWS TONIGHT INTO THE 9 TO 13 ABOVE ZERO RANGE...WITH
HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS IN MOST AREAS. WIND CHILLS
WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO LATER TONIGHT...AND
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO FOR THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING OF LOW LAYERS SHOULD END MOST OF
ANY LINGERING FLURRIES EARLY THU EVE SO WL NOT INCLUDE MENTION AT
THIS TIME.

RIDGE AXIS APPROACHING WRN CWA LATE THU NIGHT AND 925H TEMPS AROUND
-13C WL ALLOW OVERNIGHT TEMPS TO DIP WELL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BY
SUNRISE FRI.  FEW LOCATIONS IN THE WEST COULD BE BELOW ZERO. A QUIET
DAY EXPECTED ON FRI AS THE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES THRU WI.  SUNSHINE
SHOULD HELP TEMPS RECOVER INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S...STILL 15 TO 20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON INCREASING
SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RETREATING HIGH PRESSURE
FRI/FRI NIGHT PULLING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK INTO THE WRN
GTLAKES.  LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION MAY BRING SOME LIGHT PRECIP
INTO THE AREA LATER FRI NIGHT AND SAT.  SFC TEMPS WL NOT HAVE HAD
TIME TO RISE TO ABOVE FREEZING...AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LITTLE
IF ANY ICE INTRODUCTION INTO THE MOISTURE LAYER.  LOW LEVEL LAYER
TEMPS AROUND -6C WHICH MAY RESULT IN REFREEZING OF THE LIQUID DROPS
TO SLEET.  ANY QPF WL BE LIGHT...BUT MAY BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE
HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS BY EARLY SAT.  SOUTH WINDS WL CONTINUE
TO PUMP WARMER AIR INTO SRN WI ON SAT...WARMING PAVEMENT TEMPS TO
ABV FREEZING DURING THE DAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

PERSISTENT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF PHASING
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS WL RESULT IN CONTINUED WARMER...ABOVE
FREEZING TEMPS OVER THE WEEKEND.  PHASING OF TWO STREAMS WL CAUSE
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE IN SOUTHERN STREAM TO TAKE A MORE NWD TRACK
FROM THE SOUTHERN MS VALLEY INTO THE SRN LAKE MI AREA SAT NIGHT THRU
SUN EVE.  PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WITH THIS LOW WILL INCREASE TO
AROUND 1.0 OVER SRN WI WHICH IS APPROACHING 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
AND THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR MID-NOVEMBER.  MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER
COLD SFC WL LIKELY RESULT IN AREAS OF FOG DESPITE EXPECTED BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXINESS.

THIS STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION AND TRANSPORT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN TO SRN WI SUN INTO
SUN EVE.  AHEAD OF THIS STRONG SYSTEM...WL CONTINUE LOWER POPS FOR
-RA/-DZ DUE TO LINGERING WEAK ISENTROPIC OMEGA AND LINGERING LOW
LEVEL RH SAT/SAT NGT.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM BRINGING THE WET CONDITIONS LATER IN THE WEEKEND.  BY THAT
TIME...PAVEMENT TEMPS SHALL HAVE WARMED ABOVE FREEZING.

DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WL CONTINUE MOVING NORTH THROUGH THE WRN
GTLAKES SUN NIGHT AND MON.  BRISK WEST WINDS IN ITS WAKE WILL PULL
COLDER AIR INTO SRN WI SUN NIGHT.  THERE MAY BE TIME TO CHANGE THE
-RA OVER TO A MIXTURE OR -SN BEFORE ENDING OR DIMINISHING TO
FLURRIES.

REMNANTS OF SECOND NRN STREAM LOW PRESSURE WL ROTATE AROUND NRN
GTLAKES UPPER LOW EARLY NEXT WEEK AS COLD AIR SETTLES BACK INTO THE
REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE FOR -SHSN MON NGT INTO TUE.
COLD WX WL THEN REMAIN ANCHORED OVER SRN WI THRU MIDWEEK.


AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WITH SOME MODERATE SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH
TAF SITES INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...BEFORE TAPERING OFF TO
FLURRIES TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. GUSTY WEST WINDS SHOULD
LIMIT ANY ACCUMULATIONS TO A DUSTING AT WORST UNTIL AROUND 00Z
THURSDAY.

THE GUSTY WINDS WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY. CEILINGS WILL REMAIN
VFR/MVFR TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...SCATTERING OUT DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

MARINE...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 09Z FRIDAY ACROSS THE
NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE AREA WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR BRISK WEST
WINDS TO 30 KNOTS AT TIMES.

HIGH WAVES WILL BE TOWARD AND OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN...DUE TO THE OFFSHORE FLOW. WINDS AND WAVES WILL SUBSIDE
AFTER 09Z FRIDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE WORKS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST FRIDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...REM
TONIGHT/THURSDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...WOOD
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MBK





000
FXUS63 KMKX 192137
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
335 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

.TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...CONFIDENCE - HIGH.

AREA OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED MODERATE SNOW SHOWERS ARE
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA...IN ASSOCIATION WITH SOME MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS RESPONSE FIELDS. AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW
SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITHIN DEEP DENDRITE SNOW GROWTH ZONE.
MESOSCALE MODELS NOT HANDLING THIS ACTIVITY WELL. WILL TREND HIGH
POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS DOWNWARD TO FLURRIES BY THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS.

AREA REMAINS IN CYCLONIC FLOW AT 500 MB TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WITH
A STRONG VORTICITY MAXIMUM SLIDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA. AREA
FORECAST SOUNDINGS KEEP THE SHALLOW MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS
WITHIN DENDRITE SNOW GROWTH ZONE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...SO KEPT
FLURRY MENTION GOING DURING THIS TIME. DRIER AIR MOVING IN ON
THURSDAY SHOULD GRADUALLY BRING PARTLY SUNNY SKIES.

A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WILL KEEP BRISK WEST
WINDS GOING...WITH GRADUAL COLD AIR ADVECTION. 925 MB TEMPERATURE
FIELDS SUGGEST LOWS TONIGHT INTO THE 9 TO 13 ABOVE ZERO RANGE...WITH
HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS IN MOST AREAS. WIND CHILLS
WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO LATER TONIGHT...AND
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO FOR THURSDAY.

.THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING OF LOW LAYERS SHOULD END MOST OF
ANY LINGERING FLURRIES EARLY THU EVE SO WL NOT INCLUDE MENTION AT
THIS TIME.

RIDGE AXIS APPROACHING WRN CWA LATE THU NIGHT AND 925H TEMPS AROUND
-13C WL ALLOW OVERNIGHT TEMPS TO DIP WELL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BY
SUNRISE FRI.  FEW LOCATIONS IN THE WEST COULD BE BELOW ZERO. A QUIET
DAY EXPECTED ON FRI AS THE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES THRU WI.  SUNSHINE
SHOULD HELP TEMPS RECOVER INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S...STILL 15 TO 20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON INCREASING
SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RETREATING HIGH PRESSURE
FRI/FRI NIGHT PULLING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK INTO THE WRN
GTLAKES.  LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION MAY BRING SOME LIGHT PRECIP
INTO THE AREA LATER FRI NIGHT AND SAT.  SFC TEMPS WL NOT HAVE HAD
TIME TO RISE TO ABOVE FREEZING...AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LITTLE
IF ANY ICE INTRODUCTION INTO THE MOISTURE LAYER.  LOW LEVEL LAYER
TEMPS AROUND -6C WHICH MAY RESULT IN REFREEZING OF THE LIQUID DROPS
TO SLEET.  ANY QPF WL BE LIGHT...BUT MAY BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE
HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS BY EARLY SAT.  SOUTH WINDS WL CONTINUE
TO PUMP WARMER AIR INTO SRN WI ON SAT...WARMING PAVEMENT TEMPS TO
ABV FREEZING DURING THE DAY.

.SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

PERSISTENT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF PHASING
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS WL RESULT IN CONTINUED WARMER...ABOVE
FREEZING TEMPS OVER THE WEEKEND.  PHASING OF TWO STREAMS WL CAUSE
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE IN SOUTHERN STREAM TO TAKE A MORE NWD TRACK
FROM THE SOUTHERN MS VALLEY INTO THE SRN LAKE MI AREA SAT NIGHT THRU
SUN EVE.  PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WITH THIS LOW WILL INCREASE TO
AROUND 1.0 OVER SRN WI WHICH IS APPROACHING 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
AND THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR MID-NOVEMBER.  MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER
COLD SFC WL LIKELY RESULT IN AREAS OF FOG DESPITE EXPECTED BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXINESS.

THIS STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION AND TRANSPORT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN TO SRN WI SUN INTO
SUN EVE.  AHEAD OF THIS STRONG SYSTEM...WL CONTINUE LOWER POPS FOR
-RA/-DZ DUE TO LINGERING WEAK ISENTROPIC OMEGA AND LINGERING LOW
LEVEL RH SAT/SAT NGT.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM BRINGING THE WET CONDITIONS LATER IN THE WEEKEND.  BY THAT
TIME...PAVEMENT TEMPS SHALL HAVE WARMED ABOVE FREEZING.

DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WL CONTINUE MOVING NORTH THROUGH THE WRN
GTLAKES SUN NIGHT AND MON.  BRISK WEST WINDS IN ITS WAKE WILL PULL
COLDER AIR INTO SRN WI SUN NIGHT.  THERE MAY BE TIME TO CHANGE THE
-RA OVER TO A MIXTURE OR -SN BEFORE ENDING OR DIMINISHING TO
FLURRIES.

REMNANTS OF SECOND NRN STREAM LOW PRESSURE WL ROTATE AROUND NRN
GTLAKES UPPER LOW EARLY NEXT WEEK AS COLD AIR SETTLES BACK INTO THE
REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE FOR -SHSN MON NGT INTO TUE.
COLD WX WL THEN REMAIN ANCHORED OVER SRN WI THRU MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WITH SOME MODERATE SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH
TAF SITES INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...BEFORE TAPERING OFF TO
FLURRIES TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. GUSTY WEST WINDS SHOULD
LIMIT ANY ACCUMULATIONS TO A DUSTING AT WORST UNTIL AROUND 00Z
THURSDAY.

THE GUSTY WINDS WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY. CEILINGS WILL REMAIN
VFR/MVFR TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...SCATTERING OUT DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 09Z FRIDAY ACROSS THE
NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE AREA WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR BRISK WEST
WINDS TO 30 KNOTS AT TIMES.

HIGH WAVES WILL BE TOWARD AND OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN...DUE TO THE OFFSHORE FLOW. WINDS AND WAVES WILL SUBSIDE
AFTER 09Z FRIDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE WORKS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST FRIDAY FOR LMZ643>646.


$$
TODAY AND TONIGHT/AVIATION/MARINE...WOOD
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MBK





000
FXUS63 KMKX 192137
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
335 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

.TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...CONFIDENCE - HIGH.

AREA OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED MODERATE SNOW SHOWERS ARE
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA...IN ASSOCIATION WITH SOME MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS RESPONSE FIELDS. AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW
SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITHIN DEEP DENDRITE SNOW GROWTH ZONE.
MESOSCALE MODELS NOT HANDLING THIS ACTIVITY WELL. WILL TREND HIGH
POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS DOWNWARD TO FLURRIES BY THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS.

AREA REMAINS IN CYCLONIC FLOW AT 500 MB TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WITH
A STRONG VORTICITY MAXIMUM SLIDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA. AREA
FORECAST SOUNDINGS KEEP THE SHALLOW MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS
WITHIN DENDRITE SNOW GROWTH ZONE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...SO KEPT
FLURRY MENTION GOING DURING THIS TIME. DRIER AIR MOVING IN ON
THURSDAY SHOULD GRADUALLY BRING PARTLY SUNNY SKIES.

A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WILL KEEP BRISK WEST
WINDS GOING...WITH GRADUAL COLD AIR ADVECTION. 925 MB TEMPERATURE
FIELDS SUGGEST LOWS TONIGHT INTO THE 9 TO 13 ABOVE ZERO RANGE...WITH
HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS IN MOST AREAS. WIND CHILLS
WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO LATER TONIGHT...AND
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO FOR THURSDAY.

.THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING OF LOW LAYERS SHOULD END MOST OF
ANY LINGERING FLURRIES EARLY THU EVE SO WL NOT INCLUDE MENTION AT
THIS TIME.

RIDGE AXIS APPROACHING WRN CWA LATE THU NIGHT AND 925H TEMPS AROUND
-13C WL ALLOW OVERNIGHT TEMPS TO DIP WELL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BY
SUNRISE FRI.  FEW LOCATIONS IN THE WEST COULD BE BELOW ZERO. A QUIET
DAY EXPECTED ON FRI AS THE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES THRU WI.  SUNSHINE
SHOULD HELP TEMPS RECOVER INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S...STILL 15 TO 20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON INCREASING
SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RETREATING HIGH PRESSURE
FRI/FRI NIGHT PULLING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK INTO THE WRN
GTLAKES.  LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION MAY BRING SOME LIGHT PRECIP
INTO THE AREA LATER FRI NIGHT AND SAT.  SFC TEMPS WL NOT HAVE HAD
TIME TO RISE TO ABOVE FREEZING...AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LITTLE
IF ANY ICE INTRODUCTION INTO THE MOISTURE LAYER.  LOW LEVEL LAYER
TEMPS AROUND -6C WHICH MAY RESULT IN REFREEZING OF THE LIQUID DROPS
TO SLEET.  ANY QPF WL BE LIGHT...BUT MAY BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE
HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS BY EARLY SAT.  SOUTH WINDS WL CONTINUE
TO PUMP WARMER AIR INTO SRN WI ON SAT...WARMING PAVEMENT TEMPS TO
ABV FREEZING DURING THE DAY.

.SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

PERSISTENT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF PHASING
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS WL RESULT IN CONTINUED WARMER...ABOVE
FREEZING TEMPS OVER THE WEEKEND.  PHASING OF TWO STREAMS WL CAUSE
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE IN SOUTHERN STREAM TO TAKE A MORE NWD TRACK
FROM THE SOUTHERN MS VALLEY INTO THE SRN LAKE MI AREA SAT NIGHT THRU
SUN EVE.  PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WITH THIS LOW WILL INCREASE TO
AROUND 1.0 OVER SRN WI WHICH IS APPROACHING 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
AND THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR MID-NOVEMBER.  MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER
COLD SFC WL LIKELY RESULT IN AREAS OF FOG DESPITE EXPECTED BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXINESS.

THIS STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION AND TRANSPORT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN TO SRN WI SUN INTO
SUN EVE.  AHEAD OF THIS STRONG SYSTEM...WL CONTINUE LOWER POPS FOR
-RA/-DZ DUE TO LINGERING WEAK ISENTROPIC OMEGA AND LINGERING LOW
LEVEL RH SAT/SAT NGT.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM BRINGING THE WET CONDITIONS LATER IN THE WEEKEND.  BY THAT
TIME...PAVEMENT TEMPS SHALL HAVE WARMED ABOVE FREEZING.

DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WL CONTINUE MOVING NORTH THROUGH THE WRN
GTLAKES SUN NIGHT AND MON.  BRISK WEST WINDS IN ITS WAKE WILL PULL
COLDER AIR INTO SRN WI SUN NIGHT.  THERE MAY BE TIME TO CHANGE THE
-RA OVER TO A MIXTURE OR -SN BEFORE ENDING OR DIMINISHING TO
FLURRIES.

REMNANTS OF SECOND NRN STREAM LOW PRESSURE WL ROTATE AROUND NRN
GTLAKES UPPER LOW EARLY NEXT WEEK AS COLD AIR SETTLES BACK INTO THE
REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE FOR -SHSN MON NGT INTO TUE.
COLD WX WL THEN REMAIN ANCHORED OVER SRN WI THRU MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WITH SOME MODERATE SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH
TAF SITES INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...BEFORE TAPERING OFF TO
FLURRIES TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. GUSTY WEST WINDS SHOULD
LIMIT ANY ACCUMULATIONS TO A DUSTING AT WORST UNTIL AROUND 00Z
THURSDAY.

THE GUSTY WINDS WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY. CEILINGS WILL REMAIN
VFR/MVFR TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...SCATTERING OUT DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 09Z FRIDAY ACROSS THE
NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE AREA WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR BRISK WEST
WINDS TO 30 KNOTS AT TIMES.

HIGH WAVES WILL BE TOWARD AND OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN...DUE TO THE OFFSHORE FLOW. WINDS AND WAVES WILL SUBSIDE
AFTER 09Z FRIDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE WORKS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST FRIDAY FOR LMZ643>646.


$$
TODAY AND TONIGHT/AVIATION/MARINE...WOOD
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MBK




000
FXUS63 KMKX 191751 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1151 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014

.UPDATE...

SURFACE TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE OVER LAKE MICHIGAN BY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH CYCLONIC FLOW OVER SOUTHERN WI. SOUNDINGS FROM THE
RAP AND HRRR TO SOME DEGREE INDICATE WEAK OMEGA IN THE DENDRITE
GROWTH ZONE THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY IN THE WESTERN CWA. LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS ARE FALLING UPSTREAM IN THE LA CROSSE AREA SO SEEMS THIS
LIFT IS ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT SNOW IN THE WESTERN CWA AND
FLURRIES ELSEWHERE THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

UPSTREAM OBS IN THE LA CROSSE AREA INDICATE SOME MVFR CEILINGS
WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES. FORCING FOR ANY LIGHT
SNOW...ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERN TAF SITES...IS MINIMAL. THINK SOME
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY AT
KMSN WITH SCATTERED FLURRIES LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. SCATTERED
FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED AT EASTERN TAF SITES. VFR/MVFR CEILINGS
EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO THURSDAY. WEST WINDS WILL PICK UP THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL REMAIN ELEVATED OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH TOMORROW.

&&

.MARINE...

THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY. GUSTY WEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY WITH TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND GOOD LOW LEVEL MIXING. GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS
POSSIBLE AT TIMES. HIGHEST WAVES WILL BE TOWARD THE OPEN WATERS
WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

A BROAD 250 MB UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPPER DIVERGENCE. A WEAK MID LEVEL 500 MB
SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THIS MORNING
WITH A STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE LAKE SUPERIOR REGION
THIS AFTERNOON. THE 700 MB UPWARD MOTION INCREASES EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH DOWNWARD MOTION OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN BEFORE
NOON...AND OVER THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON.  ISENTROPIC
ANALYSIS SHOWS CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS FALL TO LESS THAN 10
MB IN THE 780 TO 620 MB LAYER...BUT ONLY FOR A BRIEF TIME...
ESPECIALLY AROUND SUNRISE.

A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING.

THE MESOSCALE MODELS BRING LIGHT REFLECTIVITY/QPF ACROSS THE
AREA...AND KEEP THE BEST VALUES EAST OF THE AREA. NAM FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE STILL SHOWING ABOUT A 5 TO 6 HOUR WINDOW OF DECENT AIR
COLUMN SATURATION WITHIN A 7 THOUSAND FOOT DENDRITE SNOW GROWTH ZONE
THIS MORNING.

THUS...KEPT THE LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS GOING FOR THIS
PERIOD...WITH A CHANCE IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST. FLUFFY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF MAINLY UP TO 1 INCH ARE EXPECTED IN MOST
AREAS...BUT A LITTLE LESS SOUTHWEST OF MADISON.

COLD HIGHS IN THE 20S ARE EXPECTED TODAY...WITH BRISK WEST WINDS
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON BEHIND THE TROUGH. THIS WILL BRING
SINGLE DIGIT ABOVE ZERO WIND CHILLS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE PLAINS.

THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
UPPER FLOW REMAINS BROADLY CYCLONIC WITH ELONGATED/SHEARED VORT
ACROSS THE STATE. MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS DOES SHIFT TO THE EASTERN
LAKES. LOW LEVEL COLD POOL WILL BE WELL ENTRENCHED WITH 925 TEMPS
-13 TO -15C WITH 20-25 KNOTS AT THAT LEVEL AS WELL. MOST HIGHS
WILL REMAIN IN THE TEENS. SO EXPECTING A BLUSTERY DAY WITH TEMPS
CONTINUING WAY BELOW NORMAL. SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MOVES TO IA
THROUGH SRN IL BY DAYS END.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING - CONFIDENCE...HIGH
SURFACE HIGH EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THIS PERIOD WITH QUIET WEATHER
BUT COLD CONDITIONS PERSISTING. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS BECOMING
SITUATED ACROSS THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD SINGLE
DIGIT LOWS. THE HIGH SHIFTS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY WITH
PRONOUNCED 925/850 WAA RETURN FLOW SETTING UP. 925 TEMPS MODERATE
TO -3C TO -6C. SO EXPECT TEMPS TO NUDGE INTO THE MID 20S. THE WAA
REGIME CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY EVENING WITH MODELS DELAYING PRECIP
ARRIVAL.

LATER FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
THIS PERIOD WILL HAVE POTENTIAL FOR MIXY PRECIP DUE THE WARMING
ALOFT AND COLDER SURFACE TEMPS SLOWER TO MODERATE. SO AFTER 6Z
THROUGH ABOUT 15Z WILL BE THE WINDOW OF CONCERN AS ALL PRECIP
TYPES WILL BE POSSIBLE THOUGH GREATEST CONCERN WILL BE THE
ELEVATED WARM LAYER AND LACK OF SUSTAINED SATURATION IN THE
DENDRIDIC GROWTH ZONE BEARING SOME CONCERN FOR FREEZING RAIN
POTENTIAL. QPF AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO BE ON THE LOW SIDE.

SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
MILDER AIRMASS PROGGD TO BE IN PLACE WITH 850/925 TEMPS WELL
ABOVE ZERO CELSIUS. BROAD WAA/MOIST ADVECTION PERSISTS THOUGH
BETTER FORCING/BAROCLINICITY LIFTS NORTH AND INTERACTS WITH A
NORTHERN STREAM WAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST. QPF AMOUNTS ONLY A FEW
HUNDREDTHS. WITH THE SUSTAINED SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW MILD TEMPS
WILL BE IN PLACE WITH SOME AREAS...ESP IN THE SOUTH POTENTIALLY
EXCEEDING 40.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
PRIMARY SURGE OF RAIN ARRIVES WITH POTENT SHORTWAVE LIFTING
NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW
REACHES EITHER NRN IL OR SE WI BY 00Z MON. THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS
NORTHEAST WITH COLDER AIR WRAPING IN AROUND THE LOW SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. SO EXPECT SOME CHANGEOVER TO OCCUR AS THE
PROFILE/COLUMN COOLS. LOW LEVEL TROUGH AND UPPER CYCLONIC FLOW
WILL KEEP SNOW SHOWER CHANCES GOING MONDAY WITH SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE.

TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
LINGERING CYCLONIC FLOW AND LOW LEVEL TROUGHINESSS SUGGESTS
KEEPING SMALL POPS GOING IN THE EAST FOR NOW...PER SUPERBLEND
POPS. GFS SHOWS DRY WX WHILE THE ECMWF LINGERS JUST A SMIDGE OF
QPF AROUND.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW SHOULD SPREAD EAST
ACROSS TAF SITES THROUGH 15Z AT MADISON...AND 17Z AT THE EASTERN
SITES. VISIBILITIES SHOULD DROP TO NEAR 1 MILE OR NEAR ALTERNATE
MINIMUMS DURING THIS TIME...WITH CEILINGS MVFR TO PERHAPS IFR
CATEGORY. FLUFFY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ARE
POSSIBLE...WITH 0.1 TO 0.2 INCH RATES PER HOUR.

SHOULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS RETURN BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS AS WELL. MAY SEE A LITTLE BLOWING
AND DRIFTING SNOW...BUT VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN VFR CATEGORY.

MARINE...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SUBSEQUENT WINDS WILL WEAKEN THIS
MORNING...AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
THURSDAY...AS ANOTHER TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS BEHIND THE
DEPARTING LOW. COULD SEE GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS AT TIMES. HIGH WAVES
WOULD BE TOWARD AND OVER THE OPEN WATERS WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THURSDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SM/WOOD
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...COLLAR




000
FXUS63 KMKX 191751 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1151 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014

.UPDATE...

SURFACE TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE OVER LAKE MICHIGAN BY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH CYCLONIC FLOW OVER SOUTHERN WI. SOUNDINGS FROM THE
RAP AND HRRR TO SOME DEGREE INDICATE WEAK OMEGA IN THE DENDRITE
GROWTH ZONE THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY IN THE WESTERN CWA. LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS ARE FALLING UPSTREAM IN THE LA CROSSE AREA SO SEEMS THIS
LIFT IS ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT SNOW IN THE WESTERN CWA AND
FLURRIES ELSEWHERE THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

UPSTREAM OBS IN THE LA CROSSE AREA INDICATE SOME MVFR CEILINGS
WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES. FORCING FOR ANY LIGHT
SNOW...ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERN TAF SITES...IS MINIMAL. THINK SOME
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY AT
KMSN WITH SCATTERED FLURRIES LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. SCATTERED
FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED AT EASTERN TAF SITES. VFR/MVFR CEILINGS
EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO THURSDAY. WEST WINDS WILL PICK UP THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL REMAIN ELEVATED OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH TOMORROW.

&&

.MARINE...

THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY. GUSTY WEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY WITH TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND GOOD LOW LEVEL MIXING. GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS
POSSIBLE AT TIMES. HIGHEST WAVES WILL BE TOWARD THE OPEN WATERS
WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

A BROAD 250 MB UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPPER DIVERGENCE. A WEAK MID LEVEL 500 MB
SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THIS MORNING
WITH A STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE LAKE SUPERIOR REGION
THIS AFTERNOON. THE 700 MB UPWARD MOTION INCREASES EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH DOWNWARD MOTION OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN BEFORE
NOON...AND OVER THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON.  ISENTROPIC
ANALYSIS SHOWS CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS FALL TO LESS THAN 10
MB IN THE 780 TO 620 MB LAYER...BUT ONLY FOR A BRIEF TIME...
ESPECIALLY AROUND SUNRISE.

A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING.

THE MESOSCALE MODELS BRING LIGHT REFLECTIVITY/QPF ACROSS THE
AREA...AND KEEP THE BEST VALUES EAST OF THE AREA. NAM FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE STILL SHOWING ABOUT A 5 TO 6 HOUR WINDOW OF DECENT AIR
COLUMN SATURATION WITHIN A 7 THOUSAND FOOT DENDRITE SNOW GROWTH ZONE
THIS MORNING.

THUS...KEPT THE LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS GOING FOR THIS
PERIOD...WITH A CHANCE IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST. FLUFFY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF MAINLY UP TO 1 INCH ARE EXPECTED IN MOST
AREAS...BUT A LITTLE LESS SOUTHWEST OF MADISON.

COLD HIGHS IN THE 20S ARE EXPECTED TODAY...WITH BRISK WEST WINDS
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON BEHIND THE TROUGH. THIS WILL BRING
SINGLE DIGIT ABOVE ZERO WIND CHILLS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE PLAINS.

THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
UPPER FLOW REMAINS BROADLY CYCLONIC WITH ELONGATED/SHEARED VORT
ACROSS THE STATE. MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS DOES SHIFT TO THE EASTERN
LAKES. LOW LEVEL COLD POOL WILL BE WELL ENTRENCHED WITH 925 TEMPS
-13 TO -15C WITH 20-25 KNOTS AT THAT LEVEL AS WELL. MOST HIGHS
WILL REMAIN IN THE TEENS. SO EXPECTING A BLUSTERY DAY WITH TEMPS
CONTINUING WAY BELOW NORMAL. SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MOVES TO IA
THROUGH SRN IL BY DAYS END.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING - CONFIDENCE...HIGH
SURFACE HIGH EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THIS PERIOD WITH QUIET WEATHER
BUT COLD CONDITIONS PERSISTING. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS BECOMING
SITUATED ACROSS THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD SINGLE
DIGIT LOWS. THE HIGH SHIFTS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY WITH
PRONOUNCED 925/850 WAA RETURN FLOW SETTING UP. 925 TEMPS MODERATE
TO -3C TO -6C. SO EXPECT TEMPS TO NUDGE INTO THE MID 20S. THE WAA
REGIME CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY EVENING WITH MODELS DELAYING PRECIP
ARRIVAL.

LATER FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
THIS PERIOD WILL HAVE POTENTIAL FOR MIXY PRECIP DUE THE WARMING
ALOFT AND COLDER SURFACE TEMPS SLOWER TO MODERATE. SO AFTER 6Z
THROUGH ABOUT 15Z WILL BE THE WINDOW OF CONCERN AS ALL PRECIP
TYPES WILL BE POSSIBLE THOUGH GREATEST CONCERN WILL BE THE
ELEVATED WARM LAYER AND LACK OF SUSTAINED SATURATION IN THE
DENDRIDIC GROWTH ZONE BEARING SOME CONCERN FOR FREEZING RAIN
POTENTIAL. QPF AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO BE ON THE LOW SIDE.

SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
MILDER AIRMASS PROGGD TO BE IN PLACE WITH 850/925 TEMPS WELL
ABOVE ZERO CELSIUS. BROAD WAA/MOIST ADVECTION PERSISTS THOUGH
BETTER FORCING/BAROCLINICITY LIFTS NORTH AND INTERACTS WITH A
NORTHERN STREAM WAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST. QPF AMOUNTS ONLY A FEW
HUNDREDTHS. WITH THE SUSTAINED SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW MILD TEMPS
WILL BE IN PLACE WITH SOME AREAS...ESP IN THE SOUTH POTENTIALLY
EXCEEDING 40.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
PRIMARY SURGE OF RAIN ARRIVES WITH POTENT SHORTWAVE LIFTING
NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW
REACHES EITHER NRN IL OR SE WI BY 00Z MON. THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS
NORTHEAST WITH COLDER AIR WRAPING IN AROUND THE LOW SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. SO EXPECT SOME CHANGEOVER TO OCCUR AS THE
PROFILE/COLUMN COOLS. LOW LEVEL TROUGH AND UPPER CYCLONIC FLOW
WILL KEEP SNOW SHOWER CHANCES GOING MONDAY WITH SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE.

TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
LINGERING CYCLONIC FLOW AND LOW LEVEL TROUGHINESSS SUGGESTS
KEEPING SMALL POPS GOING IN THE EAST FOR NOW...PER SUPERBLEND
POPS. GFS SHOWS DRY WX WHILE THE ECMWF LINGERS JUST A SMIDGE OF
QPF AROUND.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW SHOULD SPREAD EAST
ACROSS TAF SITES THROUGH 15Z AT MADISON...AND 17Z AT THE EASTERN
SITES. VISIBILITIES SHOULD DROP TO NEAR 1 MILE OR NEAR ALTERNATE
MINIMUMS DURING THIS TIME...WITH CEILINGS MVFR TO PERHAPS IFR
CATEGORY. FLUFFY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ARE
POSSIBLE...WITH 0.1 TO 0.2 INCH RATES PER HOUR.

SHOULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS RETURN BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS AS WELL. MAY SEE A LITTLE BLOWING
AND DRIFTING SNOW...BUT VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN VFR CATEGORY.

MARINE...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SUBSEQUENT WINDS WILL WEAKEN THIS
MORNING...AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
THURSDAY...AS ANOTHER TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS BEHIND THE
DEPARTING LOW. COULD SEE GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS AT TIMES. HIGH WAVES
WOULD BE TOWARD AND OVER THE OPEN WATERS WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THURSDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SM/WOOD
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...COLLAR





000
FXUS63 KMKX 190907
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
307 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

A BROAD 250 MB UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPPER DIVERGENCE. A WEAK MID LEVEL 500 MB
SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THIS MORNING
WITH A STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE LAKE SUPERIOR REGION
THIS AFTERNOON. THE 700 MB UPWARD MOTION INCREASES EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH DOWNWARD MOTION OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN BEFORE
NOON...AND OVER THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON.  ISENTROPIC
ANALYSIS SHOWS CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS FALL TO LESS THAN 10
MB IN THE 780 TO 620 MB LAYER...BUT ONLY FOR A BRIEF TIME...
ESPECIALLY AROUND SUNRISE.

A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING.

THE MESOSCALE MODELS BRING LIGHT REFLECTIVITY/QPF ACROSS THE
AREA...AND KEEP THE BEST VALUES EAST OF THE AREA. NAM FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE STILL SHOWING ABOUT A 5 TO 6 HOUR WINDOW OF DECENT AIR
COLUMN SATURATION WITHIN A 7 THOUSAND FOOT DENDRITE SNOW GROWTH ZONE
THIS MORNING.

THUS...KEPT THE LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS GOING FOR THIS
PERIOD...WITH A CHANCE IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST. FLUFFY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF MAINLY UP TO 1 INCH ARE EXPECTED IN MOST
AREAS...BUT A LITTLE LESS SOUTHWEST OF MADISON.

COLD HIGHS IN THE 20S ARE EXPECTED TODAY...WITH BRISK WEST WINDS
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON BEHIND THE TROUGH. THIS WILL BRING
SINGLE DIGIT ABOVE ZERO WIND CHILLS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE PLAINS.

.THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
UPPER FLOW REMAINS BROADLY CYCLONIC WITH ELONGATED/SHEARED VORT
ACROSS THE STATE. MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS DOES SHIFT TO THE EASTERN
LAKES. LOW LEVEL COLD POOL WILL BE WELL ENTRENCHED WITH 925 TEMPS
-13 TO -15C WITH 20-25 KNOTS AT THAT LEVEL AS WELL. MOST HIGHS
WILL REMAIN IN THE TEENS. SO EXPECTING A BLUSTERY DAY WITH TEMPS
CONTINUING WAY BELOW NORMAL. SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MOVES TO IA
THROUGH SRN IL BY DAYS END.

.THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING - CONFIDENCE...HIGH
SURFACE HIGH EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THIS PERIOD WITH QUIET WEATHER
BUT COLD CONDITIONS PERSISTING. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS BECOMING
SITUATED ACROSS THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD SINGLE
DIGIT LOWS. THE HIGH SHIFTS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY WITH
PRONOUNCED 925/850 WAA RETURN FLOW SETTING UP. 925 TEMPS MODERATE
TO -3C TO -6C. SO EXPECT TEMPS TO NUDGE INTO THE MID 20S. THE WAA
REGIME CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY EVENING WITH MODELS DELAYING PRECIP
ARRIVAL.

.LATER FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
THIS PERIOD WILL HAVE POTENTIAL FOR MIXY PRECIP DUE THE WARMING
ALOFT AND COLDER SURFACE TEMPS SLOWER TO MODERATE. SO AFTER 6Z
THROUGH ABOUT 15Z WILL BE THE WINDOW OF CONCERN AS ALL PRECIP
TYPES WILL BE POSSIBLE THOUGH GREATEST CONCERN WILL BE THE
ELEVATED WARM LAYER AND LACK OF SUSTAINED SATURATION IN THE
DENDRIDIC GROWTH ZONE BEARING SOME CONCERN FOR FREEZING RAIN
POTENTIAL. QPF AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO BE ON THE LOW SIDE.

.SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
MILDER AIRMASS PROGGD TO BE IN PLACE WITH 850/925 TEMPS WELL
ABOVE ZERO CELSIUS. BROAD WAA/MOIST ADVECTION PERSISTS THOUGH
BETTER FORCING/BAROCLINICITY LIFTS NORTH AND INTERACTS WITH A
NORTHERN STREAM WAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST. QPF AMOUNTS ONLY A FEW
HUNDREDTHS. WITH THE SUSTAINED SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW MILD TEMPS
WILL BE IN PLACE WITH SOME AREAS...ESP IN THE SOUTH POTENTIALLY
EXCEEDING 40.

.SUNDAY AND MONDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
PRIMARY SURGE OF RAIN ARRIVES WITH POTENT SHORTWAVE LIFTING
NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW
REACHES EITHER NRN IL OR SE WI BY 00Z MON. THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS
NORTHEAST WITH COLDER AIR WRAPING IN AROUND THE LOW SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. SO EXPECT SOME CHANGEOVER TO OCCUR AS THE
PROFILE/COLUMN COOLS. LOW LEVEL TROUGH AND UPPER CYCLONIC FLOW
WILL KEEP SNOW SHOWER CHANCES GOING MONDAY WITH SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE.

.TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
LINGERING CYCLONIC FLOW AND LOW LEVEL TROUGHINESSS SUGGESTS
KEEPING SMALL POPS GOING IN THE EAST FOR NOW...PER SUPERBLEND
POPS. GFS SHOWS DRY WX WHILE THE ECMWF LINGERS JUST A SMIDGE OF
QPF AROUND.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW SHOULD SPREAD EAST
ACROSS TAF SITES THROUGH 15Z AT MADISON...AND 17Z AT THE EASTERN
SITES. VISIBILITIES SHOULD DROP TO NEAR 1 MILE OR NEAR ALTERNATE
MINIMUMS DURING THIS TIME...WITH CEILINGS MVFR TO PERHAPS IFR
CATEGORY. FLUFFY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ARE
POSSIBLE...WITH 0.1 TO 0.2 INCH RATES PER HOUR.

SHOULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS RETURN BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS AS WELL. MAY SEE A LITTLE BLOWING
AND DRIFTING SNOW...BUT VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN VFR CATEGORY.

&&

.MARINE...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SUBSEQUENT WINDS WILL WEAKEN THIS
MORNING...AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
THURSDAY...AS ANOTHER TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS BEHIND THE
DEPARTING LOW. COULD SEE GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS AT TIMES. HIGH WAVES
WOULD BE TOWARD AND OVER THE OPEN WATERS WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM CST THURSDAY FOR
     LMZ643>646.

&&

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...COLLAR




000
FXUS63 KMKX 190907
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
307 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

A BROAD 250 MB UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPPER DIVERGENCE. A WEAK MID LEVEL 500 MB
SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THIS MORNING
WITH A STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE LAKE SUPERIOR REGION
THIS AFTERNOON. THE 700 MB UPWARD MOTION INCREASES EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH DOWNWARD MOTION OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN BEFORE
NOON...AND OVER THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON.  ISENTROPIC
ANALYSIS SHOWS CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS FALL TO LESS THAN 10
MB IN THE 780 TO 620 MB LAYER...BUT ONLY FOR A BRIEF TIME...
ESPECIALLY AROUND SUNRISE.

A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING.

THE MESOSCALE MODELS BRING LIGHT REFLECTIVITY/QPF ACROSS THE
AREA...AND KEEP THE BEST VALUES EAST OF THE AREA. NAM FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE STILL SHOWING ABOUT A 5 TO 6 HOUR WINDOW OF DECENT AIR
COLUMN SATURATION WITHIN A 7 THOUSAND FOOT DENDRITE SNOW GROWTH ZONE
THIS MORNING.

THUS...KEPT THE LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS GOING FOR THIS
PERIOD...WITH A CHANCE IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST. FLUFFY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF MAINLY UP TO 1 INCH ARE EXPECTED IN MOST
AREAS...BUT A LITTLE LESS SOUTHWEST OF MADISON.

COLD HIGHS IN THE 20S ARE EXPECTED TODAY...WITH BRISK WEST WINDS
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON BEHIND THE TROUGH. THIS WILL BRING
SINGLE DIGIT ABOVE ZERO WIND CHILLS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE PLAINS.

.THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
UPPER FLOW REMAINS BROADLY CYCLONIC WITH ELONGATED/SHEARED VORT
ACROSS THE STATE. MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS DOES SHIFT TO THE EASTERN
LAKES. LOW LEVEL COLD POOL WILL BE WELL ENTRENCHED WITH 925 TEMPS
-13 TO -15C WITH 20-25 KNOTS AT THAT LEVEL AS WELL. MOST HIGHS
WILL REMAIN IN THE TEENS. SO EXPECTING A BLUSTERY DAY WITH TEMPS
CONTINUING WAY BELOW NORMAL. SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MOVES TO IA
THROUGH SRN IL BY DAYS END.

.THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING - CONFIDENCE...HIGH
SURFACE HIGH EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THIS PERIOD WITH QUIET WEATHER
BUT COLD CONDITIONS PERSISTING. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS BECOMING
SITUATED ACROSS THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD SINGLE
DIGIT LOWS. THE HIGH SHIFTS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY WITH
PRONOUNCED 925/850 WAA RETURN FLOW SETTING UP. 925 TEMPS MODERATE
TO -3C TO -6C. SO EXPECT TEMPS TO NUDGE INTO THE MID 20S. THE WAA
REGIME CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY EVENING WITH MODELS DELAYING PRECIP
ARRIVAL.

.LATER FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
THIS PERIOD WILL HAVE POTENTIAL FOR MIXY PRECIP DUE THE WARMING
ALOFT AND COLDER SURFACE TEMPS SLOWER TO MODERATE. SO AFTER 6Z
THROUGH ABOUT 15Z WILL BE THE WINDOW OF CONCERN AS ALL PRECIP
TYPES WILL BE POSSIBLE THOUGH GREATEST CONCERN WILL BE THE
ELEVATED WARM LAYER AND LACK OF SUSTAINED SATURATION IN THE
DENDRIDIC GROWTH ZONE BEARING SOME CONCERN FOR FREEZING RAIN
POTENTIAL. QPF AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO BE ON THE LOW SIDE.

.SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
MILDER AIRMASS PROGGD TO BE IN PLACE WITH 850/925 TEMPS WELL
ABOVE ZERO CELSIUS. BROAD WAA/MOIST ADVECTION PERSISTS THOUGH
BETTER FORCING/BAROCLINICITY LIFTS NORTH AND INTERACTS WITH A
NORTHERN STREAM WAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST. QPF AMOUNTS ONLY A FEW
HUNDREDTHS. WITH THE SUSTAINED SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW MILD TEMPS
WILL BE IN PLACE WITH SOME AREAS...ESP IN THE SOUTH POTENTIALLY
EXCEEDING 40.

.SUNDAY AND MONDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
PRIMARY SURGE OF RAIN ARRIVES WITH POTENT SHORTWAVE LIFTING
NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW
REACHES EITHER NRN IL OR SE WI BY 00Z MON. THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS
NORTHEAST WITH COLDER AIR WRAPING IN AROUND THE LOW SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. SO EXPECT SOME CHANGEOVER TO OCCUR AS THE
PROFILE/COLUMN COOLS. LOW LEVEL TROUGH AND UPPER CYCLONIC FLOW
WILL KEEP SNOW SHOWER CHANCES GOING MONDAY WITH SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE.

.TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
LINGERING CYCLONIC FLOW AND LOW LEVEL TROUGHINESSS SUGGESTS
KEEPING SMALL POPS GOING IN THE EAST FOR NOW...PER SUPERBLEND
POPS. GFS SHOWS DRY WX WHILE THE ECMWF LINGERS JUST A SMIDGE OF
QPF AROUND.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW SHOULD SPREAD EAST
ACROSS TAF SITES THROUGH 15Z AT MADISON...AND 17Z AT THE EASTERN
SITES. VISIBILITIES SHOULD DROP TO NEAR 1 MILE OR NEAR ALTERNATE
MINIMUMS DURING THIS TIME...WITH CEILINGS MVFR TO PERHAPS IFR
CATEGORY. FLUFFY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ARE
POSSIBLE...WITH 0.1 TO 0.2 INCH RATES PER HOUR.

SHOULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS RETURN BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS AS WELL. MAY SEE A LITTLE BLOWING
AND DRIFTING SNOW...BUT VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN VFR CATEGORY.

&&

.MARINE...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SUBSEQUENT WINDS WILL WEAKEN THIS
MORNING...AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
THURSDAY...AS ANOTHER TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS BEHIND THE
DEPARTING LOW. COULD SEE GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS AT TIMES. HIGH WAVES
WOULD BE TOWARD AND OVER THE OPEN WATERS WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM CST THURSDAY FOR
     LMZ643>646.

&&

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...COLLAR





000
FXUS63 KMKX 190347 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
947 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2014

.UPDATE...

LAST OF BANDS OF FLURRIES ARE EXITING SOUTHEASTERN WI AS NORTHERN
LOBE OF SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVER AREA. RETURNS ON REGIONAL RADARS
OVER CENTRAL MN INTO WRN IA IN REGION OF STRONG ISENTROPIC
ADIABATIC OMEGA WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW. HOWEVER...LITTLE TO NO SURFACE REPORTS OF
SNOW WITH CIGS AROUND 7K FT AND VIRGA UNDER THE HIGHER DBZ POCKETS
ON RADAR RETURNS BRINGING CEILING REPORTS BETWEEN 4K AND 5K FT.

THIS IS IN LINE WITH LATEST NAM 275K ISENTROPIC FORECASTS THAT
SHOW LOWERING CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS LAGGING THE LIFT
UNTIL CLOSER TO 12Z WHEN BOTH LINE UP OVER THE EASTERN 2/3 OF CWA.
WHILE 00Z NAM IS NOW MORE FOCUSED TO THE NORTH WITH QPF THROUGH
12Z...IT DOES EXPAND LIGHT QPF OVER ALL BUT FAR SW WISCONSIN
BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z. IN COLLABORATION WITH SRN OFFICES HAVE RAISED
POPS TO LOW CATEGORICAL FOR A CERTAIN OCCURRENCE/LOW QPF EVENT.
NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS...BUT WILL BE HITTING EASTERN
CWA AT MORNING RUSH WITH THE COLD TEMPERATURES REDUCING THE
EFFECTIVENESS OF ROAD CHEMICALS.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...

DRY AIR BELOW 7K FT ON AREA RAOBS EATING UP SNOW WITH FEW GROUND
REPORTS UNDER RADAR RETURNS IN MN AND IA. EXPECT THIS LAYER TO
GRADUALLY SATURATE TO ALLOW LIGHT SNOW AT TAF SITES BY 10Z OR SO
AT KMSN AND 11Z-12Z AT EASTERN SITES. ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR
LESS OF DRY LIGHT SNOW...BUT COLD AIR TEMPERATURES WILL REDUCE THE
EFFECTIVENESS OF MELTING CHEMICALS. SNOW WILL END AND WEST WINDS
TO CRANK UP BEHIND SURFACE TROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THAT
COULD CAUSE SOME MINOR BLOWING...BUT NOT ENOUGH SNOW FOR DRIFTS
THOUGH DUSTING OF TRAFFIC AREAS A GOOD BET. THE CHANCE FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW ENDS BY MIDDAY...BUT MVFR CIGS AND POCKETS OF
FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.MARINE...

MOST OF THE SHORELINE OB SITES AND SOME OF THE NEARSHORE SHIP OBS
INDICATE WINDS HAVE FALLEN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS...BUT
A FEW REPORTS OF WINDS STILL GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS...SO WILL LEAVE
ADVISORY IN PLACE UNTIL 06Z EXPIRATION. LOOKS LIKE NEXT SHIFT WILL
HAVE TO ISSUE ANOTHER ADVISORY FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
DAY THURSDAY FOR BRISK AND GUSTY WEST WINDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2014/

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH SCATTERED FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED INTO THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS. FLURRIES MAY LINGER INTO LATER TONIGHT...AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS WITHIN DENDRITE SNOW GROWTH ZONE AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION.

WEAK SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA LATER
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. ASSOCIATED 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM
ALSO PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA DURING THIS TIME. HOWEVER...NAM/GFS
SHOWING BEST LOW TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS RESPONSE FIELDS
REMAINING EAST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA.

THIS SEEMS TO BE REFLECTED IN THE MESOSCALE MODELS...WHICH BRING
LIGHT REFLECTIVITY/QPF ACROSS THE AREA...AND KEEP THE BEST VALUES
EAST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA. THUS...THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY HERE
WITH THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THE LIGHT SNOW.

HOWEVER...NAM/GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE STILL SHOWING ABOUT A 5 TO
6 HOUR WINDOW OF DECENT AIR COLUMN SATURATION WITHIN DEEP DENDRITE
SNOW GROWTH ZONE LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THUS...KEPT THE LIKELY POPS GOING FOR THIS PERIOD. FLUFFY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 1 INCH ARE EXPECTED IN MOST AREAS...MAYBE 1
TO 2 INCHES TOWARD SHEBOYGAN.

TEMPERATURES WILL FALL A BIT THIS EVENING BEFORE BECOMING STEADY OR
SLOWLY RISING LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION. COLD HIGHS IN THE 20S ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY...WITH BRISK
WEST WINDS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING SINGLE DIGIT
ABOVE ZERO WIND CHILLS IN THE AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

LOWER CLOUDS SHOULD STILL BE STREAMING THROUGH IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING LOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOOKS LIKE WE/LL STILL SEE TEMPS
COLD ENOUGH IN THOSE CLOUDS TO PRODUCE SOME FLURRIES...SO WILL
KEEP THEM IN THROUGH THE EVENING.

IT DRIES OUT THEN AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS IN. THE RIDGE
AXIS WILL BE MOVING OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY. QUIET THESE TWO DAYS WITH
TEMPS STILL RUNNING WELL BELOW NORMAL. WINDS WILL DECOUPLE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND SHOULD LEAD TO OUR LAST VERY COLD NIGHT GOING
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. LOWS AT SUNRISE ON FRIDAY SHOULD BE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AGAIN. BUT...TEMPS REBOUND INTO THE MID 20S FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

A HUGE SHIFT IN THE OVERALL PATTERN OCCURS THIS WEEKEND AS WE
TRANSITION FROM THE VERY COLD NORTHWEST FLOW TO A ZONAL FLOW THAT
FEATURES A SHORT WAVE EJECTING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS
AREA ON SATURDAY...REACHING OUR AREA ON SUNDAY. THE SFC RIDGE
THAT WAS OVER US ON FRIDAY WILL SLIDE EAST BY FRIDAY EVENING WITH
STRONG WARM AND MORE MOIST AIR ADVECTION ARRIVING OVERNIGHT. THAT
WARM ADVECTION MOVES OFF BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WE COULD SEE SOME
INITIAL PRECIP MOVE IN AFTER MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT AND GIVEN TEMP
PROFILES...IT SHOULD BE A SNOW/SLEET MIXTURE. THIS TRANSITIONS
OVER TO MAINLY RAIN ON SATURDAY AS THE COLUMN WARMS UP. IF WE DO
SEE RAIN AND OUR PAVEMENT TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW FREEZING...WE
COULD SEE SOME ICY CONDITIONS FOR A TIME. HOWEVER...IT LOOKS LIKE
IT MAY QUIET DOWN FOR SAT AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE
WARM ADVECTION MOVES OFF SATURDAY MORNING AND WE WAIT FOR THE
SHORT WAVE TO ARRIVE ON SUNDAY.

SFC CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS THE SHORT WAVE
ARRIVES...WITH THE SFC LOW TRACKING FROM MISSOURI TO SOUTHEAST
WISCONSIN VICINITY...CONTINUING NORTHEAST TO LAKE SUPERIOR BY
MONDAY MORNING. RAIN IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH TEMPS IN THE 40S.
LOOK FOR A TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW...OR A FROZEN PRECIP
TYPE...LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AS COLDER AIR FLOWS IN.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

AS THE LOW MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...WE/LL SEE COLDER AIR WRAP
SOUTH INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN MAINLY LIGHT SNOW AT
THIS POINT...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SOME RAIN FOR A TIME ON
MONDAY...BUT AMOUNTS BY THAT TIME...AS USUAL...WILL BE ON THE
LIGHT SIDE. IMPACT LOOKS MINIMAL.

WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

THIS IS TYPICALLY A BIG TRAVEL DAY PRIOR TO THE HOLIDAY AND RIGHT
NOW IT LOOKS QUIET ACROSS THE MIDWEST...WITH NO OTHER MAJOR
SYSTEMS IMPACTING THE REST OF THE COUNTY.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD GRADUALLY BECOME VFR BY SUNSET ACROSS TAF
SITES...WITH STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA. THESE VFR
CEILINGS SHOULD LINGER INTO LATER TONIGHT. GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN TONIGHT...AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES TOWARD THE
AREA.

AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW SHOULD SPREAD EAST ACROSS TAF SITES BETWEEN
10Z TO 15Z AT MADISON...AND 11Z TO 18Z AT THE EASTERN SITES.
VISIBILITIES SHOULD DROP TO NEAR 1 MILE OR NEAR ALTERNATE MINIMUMS
DURING THIS TIME...WITH CEILINGS MVFR TO PERHAPS IFR CATEGORY.
FLUFFY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ARE POSSIBLE...WITH 0.1
TO 0.2 INCH RATES PER HOUR.

SHOULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS RETURN BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS AS WELL. MAY SEE A LITTLE
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...BUT VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN VFR
CATEGORY.

MARINE...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES UNTIL 06Z WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE
NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
INTO THIS EVENING...WITHIN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ROBUST
LOW LEVEL MIXING. GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME.
WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN THIS EVENING.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SUBSEQUENT WINDS WILL WEAKEN BY LATER
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA. HIGH WAVES WILL BE TOWARD AND OVER THE OPEN
WATERS WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW.

GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO
THURSDAY...AS ANOTHER TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS BEHIND THE
DEPARTING LOW. COULD SEE GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS AT TIMES. HIGH WAVES
WOULD BE TOWARD AND OVER THE OPEN WATERS WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...REM
TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...WOOD
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...DAVIS




000
FXUS63 KMKX 190347 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
947 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2014

.UPDATE...

LAST OF BANDS OF FLURRIES ARE EXITING SOUTHEASTERN WI AS NORTHERN
LOBE OF SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVER AREA. RETURNS ON REGIONAL RADARS
OVER CENTRAL MN INTO WRN IA IN REGION OF STRONG ISENTROPIC
ADIABATIC OMEGA WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW. HOWEVER...LITTLE TO NO SURFACE REPORTS OF
SNOW WITH CIGS AROUND 7K FT AND VIRGA UNDER THE HIGHER DBZ POCKETS
ON RADAR RETURNS BRINGING CEILING REPORTS BETWEEN 4K AND 5K FT.

THIS IS IN LINE WITH LATEST NAM 275K ISENTROPIC FORECASTS THAT
SHOW LOWERING CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS LAGGING THE LIFT
UNTIL CLOSER TO 12Z WHEN BOTH LINE UP OVER THE EASTERN 2/3 OF CWA.
WHILE 00Z NAM IS NOW MORE FOCUSED TO THE NORTH WITH QPF THROUGH
12Z...IT DOES EXPAND LIGHT QPF OVER ALL BUT FAR SW WISCONSIN
BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z. IN COLLABORATION WITH SRN OFFICES HAVE RAISED
POPS TO LOW CATEGORICAL FOR A CERTAIN OCCURRENCE/LOW QPF EVENT.
NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS...BUT WILL BE HITTING EASTERN
CWA AT MORNING RUSH WITH THE COLD TEMPERATURES REDUCING THE
EFFECTIVENESS OF ROAD CHEMICALS.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...

DRY AIR BELOW 7K FT ON AREA RAOBS EATING UP SNOW WITH FEW GROUND
REPORTS UNDER RADAR RETURNS IN MN AND IA. EXPECT THIS LAYER TO
GRADUALLY SATURATE TO ALLOW LIGHT SNOW AT TAF SITES BY 10Z OR SO
AT KMSN AND 11Z-12Z AT EASTERN SITES. ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR
LESS OF DRY LIGHT SNOW...BUT COLD AIR TEMPERATURES WILL REDUCE THE
EFFECTIVENESS OF MELTING CHEMICALS. SNOW WILL END AND WEST WINDS
TO CRANK UP BEHIND SURFACE TROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THAT
COULD CAUSE SOME MINOR BLOWING...BUT NOT ENOUGH SNOW FOR DRIFTS
THOUGH DUSTING OF TRAFFIC AREAS A GOOD BET. THE CHANCE FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW ENDS BY MIDDAY...BUT MVFR CIGS AND POCKETS OF
FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.MARINE...

MOST OF THE SHORELINE OB SITES AND SOME OF THE NEARSHORE SHIP OBS
INDICATE WINDS HAVE FALLEN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS...BUT
A FEW REPORTS OF WINDS STILL GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS...SO WILL LEAVE
ADVISORY IN PLACE UNTIL 06Z EXPIRATION. LOOKS LIKE NEXT SHIFT WILL
HAVE TO ISSUE ANOTHER ADVISORY FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
DAY THURSDAY FOR BRISK AND GUSTY WEST WINDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2014/

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH SCATTERED FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED INTO THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS. FLURRIES MAY LINGER INTO LATER TONIGHT...AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS WITHIN DENDRITE SNOW GROWTH ZONE AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION.

WEAK SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA LATER
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. ASSOCIATED 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM
ALSO PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA DURING THIS TIME. HOWEVER...NAM/GFS
SHOWING BEST LOW TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS RESPONSE FIELDS
REMAINING EAST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA.

THIS SEEMS TO BE REFLECTED IN THE MESOSCALE MODELS...WHICH BRING
LIGHT REFLECTIVITY/QPF ACROSS THE AREA...AND KEEP THE BEST VALUES
EAST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA. THUS...THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY HERE
WITH THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THE LIGHT SNOW.

HOWEVER...NAM/GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE STILL SHOWING ABOUT A 5 TO
6 HOUR WINDOW OF DECENT AIR COLUMN SATURATION WITHIN DEEP DENDRITE
SNOW GROWTH ZONE LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THUS...KEPT THE LIKELY POPS GOING FOR THIS PERIOD. FLUFFY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 1 INCH ARE EXPECTED IN MOST AREAS...MAYBE 1
TO 2 INCHES TOWARD SHEBOYGAN.

TEMPERATURES WILL FALL A BIT THIS EVENING BEFORE BECOMING STEADY OR
SLOWLY RISING LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION. COLD HIGHS IN THE 20S ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY...WITH BRISK
WEST WINDS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING SINGLE DIGIT
ABOVE ZERO WIND CHILLS IN THE AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

LOWER CLOUDS SHOULD STILL BE STREAMING THROUGH IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING LOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOOKS LIKE WE/LL STILL SEE TEMPS
COLD ENOUGH IN THOSE CLOUDS TO PRODUCE SOME FLURRIES...SO WILL
KEEP THEM IN THROUGH THE EVENING.

IT DRIES OUT THEN AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS IN. THE RIDGE
AXIS WILL BE MOVING OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY. QUIET THESE TWO DAYS WITH
TEMPS STILL RUNNING WELL BELOW NORMAL. WINDS WILL DECOUPLE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND SHOULD LEAD TO OUR LAST VERY COLD NIGHT GOING
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. LOWS AT SUNRISE ON FRIDAY SHOULD BE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AGAIN. BUT...TEMPS REBOUND INTO THE MID 20S FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

A HUGE SHIFT IN THE OVERALL PATTERN OCCURS THIS WEEKEND AS WE
TRANSITION FROM THE VERY COLD NORTHWEST FLOW TO A ZONAL FLOW THAT
FEATURES A SHORT WAVE EJECTING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS
AREA ON SATURDAY...REACHING OUR AREA ON SUNDAY. THE SFC RIDGE
THAT WAS OVER US ON FRIDAY WILL SLIDE EAST BY FRIDAY EVENING WITH
STRONG WARM AND MORE MOIST AIR ADVECTION ARRIVING OVERNIGHT. THAT
WARM ADVECTION MOVES OFF BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WE COULD SEE SOME
INITIAL PRECIP MOVE IN AFTER MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT AND GIVEN TEMP
PROFILES...IT SHOULD BE A SNOW/SLEET MIXTURE. THIS TRANSITIONS
OVER TO MAINLY RAIN ON SATURDAY AS THE COLUMN WARMS UP. IF WE DO
SEE RAIN AND OUR PAVEMENT TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW FREEZING...WE
COULD SEE SOME ICY CONDITIONS FOR A TIME. HOWEVER...IT LOOKS LIKE
IT MAY QUIET DOWN FOR SAT AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE
WARM ADVECTION MOVES OFF SATURDAY MORNING AND WE WAIT FOR THE
SHORT WAVE TO ARRIVE ON SUNDAY.

SFC CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS THE SHORT WAVE
ARRIVES...WITH THE SFC LOW TRACKING FROM MISSOURI TO SOUTHEAST
WISCONSIN VICINITY...CONTINUING NORTHEAST TO LAKE SUPERIOR BY
MONDAY MORNING. RAIN IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH TEMPS IN THE 40S.
LOOK FOR A TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW...OR A FROZEN PRECIP
TYPE...LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AS COLDER AIR FLOWS IN.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

AS THE LOW MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...WE/LL SEE COLDER AIR WRAP
SOUTH INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN MAINLY LIGHT SNOW AT
THIS POINT...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SOME RAIN FOR A TIME ON
MONDAY...BUT AMOUNTS BY THAT TIME...AS USUAL...WILL BE ON THE
LIGHT SIDE. IMPACT LOOKS MINIMAL.

WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

THIS IS TYPICALLY A BIG TRAVEL DAY PRIOR TO THE HOLIDAY AND RIGHT
NOW IT LOOKS QUIET ACROSS THE MIDWEST...WITH NO OTHER MAJOR
SYSTEMS IMPACTING THE REST OF THE COUNTY.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD GRADUALLY BECOME VFR BY SUNSET ACROSS TAF
SITES...WITH STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA. THESE VFR
CEILINGS SHOULD LINGER INTO LATER TONIGHT. GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN TONIGHT...AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES TOWARD THE
AREA.

AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW SHOULD SPREAD EAST ACROSS TAF SITES BETWEEN
10Z TO 15Z AT MADISON...AND 11Z TO 18Z AT THE EASTERN SITES.
VISIBILITIES SHOULD DROP TO NEAR 1 MILE OR NEAR ALTERNATE MINIMUMS
DURING THIS TIME...WITH CEILINGS MVFR TO PERHAPS IFR CATEGORY.
FLUFFY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ARE POSSIBLE...WITH 0.1
TO 0.2 INCH RATES PER HOUR.

SHOULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS RETURN BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS AS WELL. MAY SEE A LITTLE
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...BUT VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN VFR
CATEGORY.

MARINE...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES UNTIL 06Z WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE
NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
INTO THIS EVENING...WITHIN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ROBUST
LOW LEVEL MIXING. GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME.
WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN THIS EVENING.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SUBSEQUENT WINDS WILL WEAKEN BY LATER
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA. HIGH WAVES WILL BE TOWARD AND OVER THE OPEN
WATERS WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW.

GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO
THURSDAY...AS ANOTHER TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS BEHIND THE
DEPARTING LOW. COULD SEE GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS AT TIMES. HIGH WAVES
WOULD BE TOWARD AND OVER THE OPEN WATERS WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...REM
TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...WOOD
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...DAVIS





000
FXUS63 KMKX 182139
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
339 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2014

.TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH SCATTERED FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED INTO THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS. FLURRIES MAY LINGER INTO LATER TONIGHT...AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS WITHIN DENDRITE SNOW GROWTH ZONE AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION.

WEAK SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA LATER
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. ASSOCIATED 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM
ALSO PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA DURING THIS TIME. HOWEVER...NAM/GFS
SHOWING BEST LOW TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS RESPONSE FIELDS
REMAINING EAST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA.

THIS SEEMS TO BE REFLECTED IN THE MESOSCALE MODELS...WHICH BRING
LIGHT REFLECTIVITY/QPF ACROSS THE AREA...AND KEEP THE BEST VALUES
EAST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA. THUS...THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY HERE
WITH THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THE LIGHT SNOW.

HOWEVER...NAM/GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE STILL SHOWING ABOUT A 5 TO
6 HOUR WINDOW OF DECENT AIR COLUMN SATURATION WITHIN DEEP DENDRITE
SNOW GROWTH ZONE LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THUS...KEPT THE LIKELY POPS GOING FOR THIS PERIOD. FLUFFY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 1 INCH ARE EXPECTED IN MOST AREAS...MAYBE 1
TO 2 INCHES TOWARD SHEBOYGAN.

TEMPERATURES WILL FALL A BIT THIS EVENING BEFORE BECOMING STEADY OR
SLOWLY RISING LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION. COLD HIGHS IN THE 20S ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY...WITH BRISK
WEST WINDS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING SINGLE DIGIT
ABOVE ZERO WIND CHILLS IN THE AFTERNOON.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

LOWER CLOUDS SHOULD STILL BE STREAMING THROUGH IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING LOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOOKS LIKE WE/LL STILL SEE TEMPS
COLD ENOUGH IN THOSE CLOUDS TO PRODUCE SOME FLURRIES...SO WILL
KEEP THEM IN THROUGH THE EVENING.

IT DRIES OUT THEN AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS IN. THE RIDGE
AXIS WILL BE MOVING OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY. QUIET THESE TWO DAYS WITH
TEMPS STILL RUNNING WELL BELOW NORMAL. WINDS WILL DECOUPLE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND SHOULD LEAD TO OUR LAST VERY COLD NIGHT GOING
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. LOWS AT SUNRISE ON FRIDAY SHOULD BE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AGAIN. BUT...TEMPS REBOUND INTO THE MID 20S FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

.SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

A HUGE SHIFT IN THE OVERALL PATTERN OCCURS THIS WEEKEND AS WE
TRANSITION FROM THE VERY COLD NORTHWEST FLOW TO A ZONAL FLOW THAT
FEATURES A SHORT WAVE EJECTING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS
AREA ON SATURDAY...REACHING OUR AREA ON SUNDAY. THE SFC RIDGE
THAT WAS OVER US ON FRIDAY WILL SLIDE EAST BY FRIDAY EVENING WITH
STRONG WARM AND MORE MOIST AIR ADVECTION ARRIVING OVERNIGHT. THAT
WARM ADVECTION MOVES OFF BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WE COULD SEE SOME
INITIAL PRECIP MOVE IN AFTER MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT AND GIVEN TEMP
PROFILES...IT SHOULD BE A SNOW/SLEET MIXTURE. THIS TRANSITIONS
OVER TO MAINLY RAIN ON SATURDAY AS THE COLUMN WARMS UP. IF WE DO
SEE RAIN AND OUR PAVEMENT TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW FREEZING...WE
COULD SEE SOME ICY CONDITIONS FOR A TIME. HOWEVER...IT LOOKS LIKE
IT MAY QUIET DOWN FOR SAT AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE
WARM ADVECTION MOVES OFF SATURDAY MORNING AND WE WAIT FOR THE
SHORT WAVE TO ARRIVE ON SUNDAY.

SFC CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS THE SHORT WAVE
ARRIVES...WITH THE SFC LOW TRACKING FROM MISSOURI TO SOUTHEAST
WISCONSIN VICINITY...CONTINUING NORTHEAST TO LAKE SUPERIOR BY
MONDAY MORNING. RAIN IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH TEMPS IN THE 40S.
LOOK FOR A TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW...OR A FROZEN PRECIP
TYPE...LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AS COLDER AIR FLOWS IN.

.MONDAY AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

AS THE LOW MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...WE/LL SEE COLDER AIR WRAP
SOUTH INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN MAINLY LIGHT SNOW AT
THIS POINT...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SOME RAIN FOR A TIME ON
MONDAY...BUT AMOUNTS BY THAT TIME...AS USUAL...WILL BE ON THE
LIGHT SIDE. IMPACT LOOKS MINIMAL.

.WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

THIS IS TYPICALLY A BIG TRAVEL DAY PRIOR TO THE HOLIDAY AND RIGHT
NOW IT LOOKS QUIET ACROSS THE MIDWEST...WITH NO OTHER MAJOR
SYSTEMS IMPACTING THE REST OF THE COUNTY.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD GRADUALLY BECOME VFR BY SUNSET ACROSS TAF
SITES...WITH STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA. THESE VFR
CEILINGS SHOULD LINGER INTO LATER TONIGHT. GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN TONIGHT...AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES TOWARD THE
AREA.

AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW SHOULD SPREAD EAST ACROSS TAF SITES BETWEEN
10Z TO 15Z AT MADISON...AND 11Z TO 18Z AT THE EASTERN SITES.
VISIBILITIES SHOULD DROP TO NEAR 1 MILE OR NEAR ALTERNATE MINIMUMS
DURING THIS TIME...WITH CEILINGS MVFR TO PERHAPS IFR CATEGORY.
FLUFFY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ARE POSSIBLE...WITH 0.1
TO 0.2 INCH RATES PER HOUR.

SHOULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS RETURN BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS AS WELL. MAY SEE A LITTLE
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...BUT VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN VFR
CATEGORY.

&&

.MARINE...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES UNTIL 06Z WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE
NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
INTO THIS EVENING...WITHIN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ROBUST
LOW LEVEL MIXING. GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME.
WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN THIS EVENING.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SUBSEQUENT WINDS WILL WEAKEN BY LATER
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA. HIGH WAVES WILL BE TOWARD AND OVER THE OPEN
WATERS WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW.

GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO
THURSDAY...AS ANOTHER TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS BEHIND THE
DEPARTING LOW. COULD SEE GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS AT TIMES. HIGH WAVES
WOULD BE TOWARD AND OVER THE OPEN WATERS WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...WOOD
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...DAVIS





000
FXUS63 KMKX 182139
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
339 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2014

.TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH SCATTERED FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED INTO THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS. FLURRIES MAY LINGER INTO LATER TONIGHT...AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS WITHIN DENDRITE SNOW GROWTH ZONE AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION.

WEAK SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA LATER
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. ASSOCIATED 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM
ALSO PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA DURING THIS TIME. HOWEVER...NAM/GFS
SHOWING BEST LOW TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS RESPONSE FIELDS
REMAINING EAST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA.

THIS SEEMS TO BE REFLECTED IN THE MESOSCALE MODELS...WHICH BRING
LIGHT REFLECTIVITY/QPF ACROSS THE AREA...AND KEEP THE BEST VALUES
EAST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA. THUS...THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY HERE
WITH THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THE LIGHT SNOW.

HOWEVER...NAM/GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE STILL SHOWING ABOUT A 5 TO
6 HOUR WINDOW OF DECENT AIR COLUMN SATURATION WITHIN DEEP DENDRITE
SNOW GROWTH ZONE LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THUS...KEPT THE LIKELY POPS GOING FOR THIS PERIOD. FLUFFY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 1 INCH ARE EXPECTED IN MOST AREAS...MAYBE 1
TO 2 INCHES TOWARD SHEBOYGAN.

TEMPERATURES WILL FALL A BIT THIS EVENING BEFORE BECOMING STEADY OR
SLOWLY RISING LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION. COLD HIGHS IN THE 20S ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY...WITH BRISK
WEST WINDS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING SINGLE DIGIT
ABOVE ZERO WIND CHILLS IN THE AFTERNOON.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

LOWER CLOUDS SHOULD STILL BE STREAMING THROUGH IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING LOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOOKS LIKE WE/LL STILL SEE TEMPS
COLD ENOUGH IN THOSE CLOUDS TO PRODUCE SOME FLURRIES...SO WILL
KEEP THEM IN THROUGH THE EVENING.

IT DRIES OUT THEN AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS IN. THE RIDGE
AXIS WILL BE MOVING OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY. QUIET THESE TWO DAYS WITH
TEMPS STILL RUNNING WELL BELOW NORMAL. WINDS WILL DECOUPLE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND SHOULD LEAD TO OUR LAST VERY COLD NIGHT GOING
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. LOWS AT SUNRISE ON FRIDAY SHOULD BE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AGAIN. BUT...TEMPS REBOUND INTO THE MID 20S FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

.SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

A HUGE SHIFT IN THE OVERALL PATTERN OCCURS THIS WEEKEND AS WE
TRANSITION FROM THE VERY COLD NORTHWEST FLOW TO A ZONAL FLOW THAT
FEATURES A SHORT WAVE EJECTING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS
AREA ON SATURDAY...REACHING OUR AREA ON SUNDAY. THE SFC RIDGE
THAT WAS OVER US ON FRIDAY WILL SLIDE EAST BY FRIDAY EVENING WITH
STRONG WARM AND MORE MOIST AIR ADVECTION ARRIVING OVERNIGHT. THAT
WARM ADVECTION MOVES OFF BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WE COULD SEE SOME
INITIAL PRECIP MOVE IN AFTER MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT AND GIVEN TEMP
PROFILES...IT SHOULD BE A SNOW/SLEET MIXTURE. THIS TRANSITIONS
OVER TO MAINLY RAIN ON SATURDAY AS THE COLUMN WARMS UP. IF WE DO
SEE RAIN AND OUR PAVEMENT TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW FREEZING...WE
COULD SEE SOME ICY CONDITIONS FOR A TIME. HOWEVER...IT LOOKS LIKE
IT MAY QUIET DOWN FOR SAT AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE
WARM ADVECTION MOVES OFF SATURDAY MORNING AND WE WAIT FOR THE
SHORT WAVE TO ARRIVE ON SUNDAY.

SFC CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS THE SHORT WAVE
ARRIVES...WITH THE SFC LOW TRACKING FROM MISSOURI TO SOUTHEAST
WISCONSIN VICINITY...CONTINUING NORTHEAST TO LAKE SUPERIOR BY
MONDAY MORNING. RAIN IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH TEMPS IN THE 40S.
LOOK FOR A TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW...OR A FROZEN PRECIP
TYPE...LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AS COLDER AIR FLOWS IN.

.MONDAY AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

AS THE LOW MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...WE/LL SEE COLDER AIR WRAP
SOUTH INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN MAINLY LIGHT SNOW AT
THIS POINT...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SOME RAIN FOR A TIME ON
MONDAY...BUT AMOUNTS BY THAT TIME...AS USUAL...WILL BE ON THE
LIGHT SIDE. IMPACT LOOKS MINIMAL.

.WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

THIS IS TYPICALLY A BIG TRAVEL DAY PRIOR TO THE HOLIDAY AND RIGHT
NOW IT LOOKS QUIET ACROSS THE MIDWEST...WITH NO OTHER MAJOR
SYSTEMS IMPACTING THE REST OF THE COUNTY.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD GRADUALLY BECOME VFR BY SUNSET ACROSS TAF
SITES...WITH STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA. THESE VFR
CEILINGS SHOULD LINGER INTO LATER TONIGHT. GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN TONIGHT...AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES TOWARD THE
AREA.

AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW SHOULD SPREAD EAST ACROSS TAF SITES BETWEEN
10Z TO 15Z AT MADISON...AND 11Z TO 18Z AT THE EASTERN SITES.
VISIBILITIES SHOULD DROP TO NEAR 1 MILE OR NEAR ALTERNATE MINIMUMS
DURING THIS TIME...WITH CEILINGS MVFR TO PERHAPS IFR CATEGORY.
FLUFFY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ARE POSSIBLE...WITH 0.1
TO 0.2 INCH RATES PER HOUR.

SHOULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS RETURN BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS AS WELL. MAY SEE A LITTLE
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...BUT VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN VFR
CATEGORY.

&&

.MARINE...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES UNTIL 06Z WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE
NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
INTO THIS EVENING...WITHIN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ROBUST
LOW LEVEL MIXING. GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME.
WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN THIS EVENING.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SUBSEQUENT WINDS WILL WEAKEN BY LATER
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA. HIGH WAVES WILL BE TOWARD AND OVER THE OPEN
WATERS WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW.

GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO
THURSDAY...AS ANOTHER TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS BEHIND THE
DEPARTING LOW. COULD SEE GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS AT TIMES. HIGH WAVES
WOULD BE TOWARD AND OVER THE OPEN WATERS WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...WOOD
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...DAVIS




000
FXUS63 KMKX 182139
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
339 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2014

.TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH SCATTERED FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED INTO THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS. FLURRIES MAY LINGER INTO LATER TONIGHT...AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS WITHIN DENDRITE SNOW GROWTH ZONE AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION.

WEAK SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA LATER
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. ASSOCIATED 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM
ALSO PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA DURING THIS TIME. HOWEVER...NAM/GFS
SHOWING BEST LOW TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS RESPONSE FIELDS
REMAINING EAST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA.

THIS SEEMS TO BE REFLECTED IN THE MESOSCALE MODELS...WHICH BRING
LIGHT REFLECTIVITY/QPF ACROSS THE AREA...AND KEEP THE BEST VALUES
EAST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA. THUS...THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY HERE
WITH THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THE LIGHT SNOW.

HOWEVER...NAM/GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE STILL SHOWING ABOUT A 5 TO
6 HOUR WINDOW OF DECENT AIR COLUMN SATURATION WITHIN DEEP DENDRITE
SNOW GROWTH ZONE LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THUS...KEPT THE LIKELY POPS GOING FOR THIS PERIOD. FLUFFY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 1 INCH ARE EXPECTED IN MOST AREAS...MAYBE 1
TO 2 INCHES TOWARD SHEBOYGAN.

TEMPERATURES WILL FALL A BIT THIS EVENING BEFORE BECOMING STEADY OR
SLOWLY RISING LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION. COLD HIGHS IN THE 20S ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY...WITH BRISK
WEST WINDS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING SINGLE DIGIT
ABOVE ZERO WIND CHILLS IN THE AFTERNOON.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

LOWER CLOUDS SHOULD STILL BE STREAMING THROUGH IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING LOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOOKS LIKE WE/LL STILL SEE TEMPS
COLD ENOUGH IN THOSE CLOUDS TO PRODUCE SOME FLURRIES...SO WILL
KEEP THEM IN THROUGH THE EVENING.

IT DRIES OUT THEN AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS IN. THE RIDGE
AXIS WILL BE MOVING OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY. QUIET THESE TWO DAYS WITH
TEMPS STILL RUNNING WELL BELOW NORMAL. WINDS WILL DECOUPLE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND SHOULD LEAD TO OUR LAST VERY COLD NIGHT GOING
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. LOWS AT SUNRISE ON FRIDAY SHOULD BE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AGAIN. BUT...TEMPS REBOUND INTO THE MID 20S FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

.SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

A HUGE SHIFT IN THE OVERALL PATTERN OCCURS THIS WEEKEND AS WE
TRANSITION FROM THE VERY COLD NORTHWEST FLOW TO A ZONAL FLOW THAT
FEATURES A SHORT WAVE EJECTING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS
AREA ON SATURDAY...REACHING OUR AREA ON SUNDAY. THE SFC RIDGE
THAT WAS OVER US ON FRIDAY WILL SLIDE EAST BY FRIDAY EVENING WITH
STRONG WARM AND MORE MOIST AIR ADVECTION ARRIVING OVERNIGHT. THAT
WARM ADVECTION MOVES OFF BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WE COULD SEE SOME
INITIAL PRECIP MOVE IN AFTER MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT AND GIVEN TEMP
PROFILES...IT SHOULD BE A SNOW/SLEET MIXTURE. THIS TRANSITIONS
OVER TO MAINLY RAIN ON SATURDAY AS THE COLUMN WARMS UP. IF WE DO
SEE RAIN AND OUR PAVEMENT TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW FREEZING...WE
COULD SEE SOME ICY CONDITIONS FOR A TIME. HOWEVER...IT LOOKS LIKE
IT MAY QUIET DOWN FOR SAT AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE
WARM ADVECTION MOVES OFF SATURDAY MORNING AND WE WAIT FOR THE
SHORT WAVE TO ARRIVE ON SUNDAY.

SFC CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS THE SHORT WAVE
ARRIVES...WITH THE SFC LOW TRACKING FROM MISSOURI TO SOUTHEAST
WISCONSIN VICINITY...CONTINUING NORTHEAST TO LAKE SUPERIOR BY
MONDAY MORNING. RAIN IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH TEMPS IN THE 40S.
LOOK FOR A TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW...OR A FROZEN PRECIP
TYPE...LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AS COLDER AIR FLOWS IN.

.MONDAY AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

AS THE LOW MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...WE/LL SEE COLDER AIR WRAP
SOUTH INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN MAINLY LIGHT SNOW AT
THIS POINT...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SOME RAIN FOR A TIME ON
MONDAY...BUT AMOUNTS BY THAT TIME...AS USUAL...WILL BE ON THE
LIGHT SIDE. IMPACT LOOKS MINIMAL.

.WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

THIS IS TYPICALLY A BIG TRAVEL DAY PRIOR TO THE HOLIDAY AND RIGHT
NOW IT LOOKS QUIET ACROSS THE MIDWEST...WITH NO OTHER MAJOR
SYSTEMS IMPACTING THE REST OF THE COUNTY.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD GRADUALLY BECOME VFR BY SUNSET ACROSS TAF
SITES...WITH STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA. THESE VFR
CEILINGS SHOULD LINGER INTO LATER TONIGHT. GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN TONIGHT...AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES TOWARD THE
AREA.

AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW SHOULD SPREAD EAST ACROSS TAF SITES BETWEEN
10Z TO 15Z AT MADISON...AND 11Z TO 18Z AT THE EASTERN SITES.
VISIBILITIES SHOULD DROP TO NEAR 1 MILE OR NEAR ALTERNATE MINIMUMS
DURING THIS TIME...WITH CEILINGS MVFR TO PERHAPS IFR CATEGORY.
FLUFFY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ARE POSSIBLE...WITH 0.1
TO 0.2 INCH RATES PER HOUR.

SHOULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS RETURN BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS AS WELL. MAY SEE A LITTLE
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...BUT VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN VFR
CATEGORY.

&&

.MARINE...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES UNTIL 06Z WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE
NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
INTO THIS EVENING...WITHIN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ROBUST
LOW LEVEL MIXING. GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME.
WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN THIS EVENING.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SUBSEQUENT WINDS WILL WEAKEN BY LATER
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA. HIGH WAVES WILL BE TOWARD AND OVER THE OPEN
WATERS WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW.

GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO
THURSDAY...AS ANOTHER TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS BEHIND THE
DEPARTING LOW. COULD SEE GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS AT TIMES. HIGH WAVES
WOULD BE TOWARD AND OVER THE OPEN WATERS WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...WOOD
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...DAVIS





000
FXUS63 KMKX 182139
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
339 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2014

.TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH SCATTERED FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED INTO THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS. FLURRIES MAY LINGER INTO LATER TONIGHT...AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS WITHIN DENDRITE SNOW GROWTH ZONE AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION.

WEAK SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA LATER
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. ASSOCIATED 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM
ALSO PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA DURING THIS TIME. HOWEVER...NAM/GFS
SHOWING BEST LOW TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS RESPONSE FIELDS
REMAINING EAST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA.

THIS SEEMS TO BE REFLECTED IN THE MESOSCALE MODELS...WHICH BRING
LIGHT REFLECTIVITY/QPF ACROSS THE AREA...AND KEEP THE BEST VALUES
EAST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA. THUS...THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY HERE
WITH THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THE LIGHT SNOW.

HOWEVER...NAM/GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE STILL SHOWING ABOUT A 5 TO
6 HOUR WINDOW OF DECENT AIR COLUMN SATURATION WITHIN DEEP DENDRITE
SNOW GROWTH ZONE LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THUS...KEPT THE LIKELY POPS GOING FOR THIS PERIOD. FLUFFY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 1 INCH ARE EXPECTED IN MOST AREAS...MAYBE 1
TO 2 INCHES TOWARD SHEBOYGAN.

TEMPERATURES WILL FALL A BIT THIS EVENING BEFORE BECOMING STEADY OR
SLOWLY RISING LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION. COLD HIGHS IN THE 20S ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY...WITH BRISK
WEST WINDS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING SINGLE DIGIT
ABOVE ZERO WIND CHILLS IN THE AFTERNOON.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

LOWER CLOUDS SHOULD STILL BE STREAMING THROUGH IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING LOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOOKS LIKE WE/LL STILL SEE TEMPS
COLD ENOUGH IN THOSE CLOUDS TO PRODUCE SOME FLURRIES...SO WILL
KEEP THEM IN THROUGH THE EVENING.

IT DRIES OUT THEN AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS IN. THE RIDGE
AXIS WILL BE MOVING OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY. QUIET THESE TWO DAYS WITH
TEMPS STILL RUNNING WELL BELOW NORMAL. WINDS WILL DECOUPLE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND SHOULD LEAD TO OUR LAST VERY COLD NIGHT GOING
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. LOWS AT SUNRISE ON FRIDAY SHOULD BE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AGAIN. BUT...TEMPS REBOUND INTO THE MID 20S FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

.SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

A HUGE SHIFT IN THE OVERALL PATTERN OCCURS THIS WEEKEND AS WE
TRANSITION FROM THE VERY COLD NORTHWEST FLOW TO A ZONAL FLOW THAT
FEATURES A SHORT WAVE EJECTING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS
AREA ON SATURDAY...REACHING OUR AREA ON SUNDAY. THE SFC RIDGE
THAT WAS OVER US ON FRIDAY WILL SLIDE EAST BY FRIDAY EVENING WITH
STRONG WARM AND MORE MOIST AIR ADVECTION ARRIVING OVERNIGHT. THAT
WARM ADVECTION MOVES OFF BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WE COULD SEE SOME
INITIAL PRECIP MOVE IN AFTER MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT AND GIVEN TEMP
PROFILES...IT SHOULD BE A SNOW/SLEET MIXTURE. THIS TRANSITIONS
OVER TO MAINLY RAIN ON SATURDAY AS THE COLUMN WARMS UP. IF WE DO
SEE RAIN AND OUR PAVEMENT TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW FREEZING...WE
COULD SEE SOME ICY CONDITIONS FOR A TIME. HOWEVER...IT LOOKS LIKE
IT MAY QUIET DOWN FOR SAT AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE
WARM ADVECTION MOVES OFF SATURDAY MORNING AND WE WAIT FOR THE
SHORT WAVE TO ARRIVE ON SUNDAY.

SFC CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS THE SHORT WAVE
ARRIVES...WITH THE SFC LOW TRACKING FROM MISSOURI TO SOUTHEAST
WISCONSIN VICINITY...CONTINUING NORTHEAST TO LAKE SUPERIOR BY
MONDAY MORNING. RAIN IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH TEMPS IN THE 40S.
LOOK FOR A TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW...OR A FROZEN PRECIP
TYPE...LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AS COLDER AIR FLOWS IN.

.MONDAY AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

AS THE LOW MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...WE/LL SEE COLDER AIR WRAP
SOUTH INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN MAINLY LIGHT SNOW AT
THIS POINT...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SOME RAIN FOR A TIME ON
MONDAY...BUT AMOUNTS BY THAT TIME...AS USUAL...WILL BE ON THE
LIGHT SIDE. IMPACT LOOKS MINIMAL.

.WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

THIS IS TYPICALLY A BIG TRAVEL DAY PRIOR TO THE HOLIDAY AND RIGHT
NOW IT LOOKS QUIET ACROSS THE MIDWEST...WITH NO OTHER MAJOR
SYSTEMS IMPACTING THE REST OF THE COUNTY.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD GRADUALLY BECOME VFR BY SUNSET ACROSS TAF
SITES...WITH STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA. THESE VFR
CEILINGS SHOULD LINGER INTO LATER TONIGHT. GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN TONIGHT...AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES TOWARD THE
AREA.

AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW SHOULD SPREAD EAST ACROSS TAF SITES BETWEEN
10Z TO 15Z AT MADISON...AND 11Z TO 18Z AT THE EASTERN SITES.
VISIBILITIES SHOULD DROP TO NEAR 1 MILE OR NEAR ALTERNATE MINIMUMS
DURING THIS TIME...WITH CEILINGS MVFR TO PERHAPS IFR CATEGORY.
FLUFFY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ARE POSSIBLE...WITH 0.1
TO 0.2 INCH RATES PER HOUR.

SHOULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS RETURN BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS AS WELL. MAY SEE A LITTLE
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...BUT VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN VFR
CATEGORY.

&&

.MARINE...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES UNTIL 06Z WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE
NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
INTO THIS EVENING...WITHIN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ROBUST
LOW LEVEL MIXING. GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME.
WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN THIS EVENING.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SUBSEQUENT WINDS WILL WEAKEN BY LATER
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA. HIGH WAVES WILL BE TOWARD AND OVER THE OPEN
WATERS WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW.

GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO
THURSDAY...AS ANOTHER TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS BEHIND THE
DEPARTING LOW. COULD SEE GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS AT TIMES. HIGH WAVES
WOULD BE TOWARD AND OVER THE OPEN WATERS WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...WOOD
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...DAVIS




000
FXUS63 KMKX 181813 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1213 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2014

.UPDATE...

STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND
SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. AREA FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THIS DEVELOPMENT WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL ALSO
CONTINUE WITH ROBUST MIXING IN THE LOW LEVELS.

925 MB TEMPERATURESS SUGGEST HIGHS TOPPING OUT ONLY IN THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER TEENS...HIGHEST IN THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD GRADUALLY BECOME VFR BY SUNSET ACROSS TAF
SITES...WITH STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOPING AND SPREADING ACROSS
THE AREA. THESE VFR CEILINGS SHOULD LINGER THIS EVENING AND LATER
TONIGHT. GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...WITH SOME GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS. WINDS WILL WEAKEN AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES TOWARD THE AREA.

EXPECT AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS TAF SITES
BETWEEN 11Z TO 16Z AT MADISON...AND 12Z TO 17Z AT THE EASTERN
SITES. VISIBILITIES SHOULD DROP TO NEAR 1 MILE OR NEAR ALTERNATE
MINIMUMS DURING THIS TIME...WITH CEILINGS MVFR TO PERHAPS IFR
CATEGORY. FLUFFY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ARE
POSSIBLE...WITH 0.1 TO 0.2 INCH RATES PER HOUR.

SHOULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS RETURN BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS AS WELL. MAY SEE A LITTLE
BLOWING AND DRIFING SNOW...BUT VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN VFR
CATEGORY.

&&

.MARINE...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES UNTIL 06Z WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE
NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITHIN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
ROBUST LOW LEVEL MIXING. GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED DURING
THIS TIME.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SUBSEQUENT WINDS WILL WEAKEN BY LATER
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA. HIGH WAVES WILL BE TOWARD AND OVER THE OPEN
WATERS WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW.

GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO
THURSDAY...AS ANOTHER TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS BEHIND THE
DEPARTING LOW. COULD SEE GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS AT TIMES. HIGH WAVES
WOULD BE TOWARD AND OVER THE OPEN WATERS WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 AM CST TUE NOV 18 2014/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

THE 250 MB UPPER TROUGH AXIS ACROSS WISCONSIN WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPPER DIVERGENCE. A MID
LEVEL 500 MB SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
THIS MORNING. A SECOND WEAK SHORTWAVE ENTERS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
AROUND SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.  LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPWARD MOTION WITH
THE FIRST SHORTWAVE....WHILE 700 MB UPWARD MOTION INCREASES LATE
TONIGHT AS THE 700 MB LAYER SATURATES. ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS SHOWS
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS FALL TO LESS THAN 10 MB IN THE 830
TO 620 MB LAYER...BUT ONLY FOR A BRIEF TIME.

MAY BE A FEW FLURRIES WITH THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE THIS MORNING...AND
WILL HAVE LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATION LATE TONIGHT.
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BEGIN VERY LATE IN THE SOUTHEAST.

THE VERY COLD AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH A GRADUAL MODERATION
LATE TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHES.  THE DEVELOPING LIGHT
SOUTHEAST FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN SHOULD ALSO HELP TEMPERATURE TO
RISE LAKE IN THE FAR EAST.

WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
PRIMARY SHORTWAVE OF CONCERN WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA DURING
THE MORNING. EXPECT SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS IN THE MORNING...SOME
AREAS UP TO AN INCH IN THE EAST. NAM QPF AMOUNTS ARE HIGHER WITH
THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOWING LIGHTER QPF. WITH THE TROUGH STILL
COMING THROUGH DURING THE MORNING HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE WPC/NAM
IDEA. 850 TROUGH/COLD FRONT ALSO SHIFTS EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON.
STRONGLY CYCLONIC FLOW TAKES SHAPE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
RENEWED COLD ADVECTION SETTING UP LATER IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW LEVEL FRONT.

THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
SURFACE HIGH WILL APPROACH. HOWEVER INFLUENCE OF THE COLD TROUGH
WILL PERSIST. 925 TEMPS OF -12 TO -14C WITH 925 WINDS RUNNING 20
TO 30 KNOTS ALL DAY...SO BLUSTERY CONDITIONS PERSIST. PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL EASE LATER IN THE DAY.

FRIDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
SOME MODIFICATION GETS UNDERWAY WITH SURFACE HIGH TO THE EAST AND
MORE OF A SOUTHERLY FLOW SETTING UP. 850 WAA REALLY RAMPS UP. THE
MOISTURE SURGE REMAINS TO OUR SOUTH. HOWEVER 925 TEMPS REALLY
MODIFY QUITE A BIT RISING QUITE A BIT THROUGH THE NEGATIVE SINGLE
DIGITS CELSIUS. UPTICK IN 925/850 RH NOTED FOR THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

FRIDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...LOW
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE PRECIPITATION TYPE WITH ARRIVING
MOISTURE SURGE. PRECIP AMOUNTS LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT. 850 TEMPS WILL
BE ABOVE ZERO CELSIUS. HOWEVER LOW LEVELS MAY BE SLOWER TO WARM
ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK...SO SOME CONCERN FOR A LIGHT MESSY
MIXTURE UNTIL TEMPS MODIFY.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
MILDER AIRMASS PROGGD TO BE IN PLACE WITH 850/925 TEMPS WELL
ABOVE ZERO CELSIUS. PRECIPITATION THIS PERIOD IN THE FORM OF
RAIN. AS WE MOVE INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY A SURFACE LOW IS
PROGGD TO TAKE SHAPE AND SWING UP TOWARDS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
SO HAVE LIKELY POPS FOR RAIN ON SUNDAY. AT THIS TIME THE ECMWF IS
SHOWING A BETTER DEVELOPED LOW TRACKING TO NEAR SRN LAKE MI BY 00Z
MON.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST WITH COLDER AIR WRAPPING IN
AROUND THE LOW. SO EXPECT SOME CHANGEOVER TO OCCUR AS THE
PROFILE/COLUMN COOLS. LOW LEVEL TROUGH AND UPPER CYCLONIC FLOW
WILL KEEP SNOW SHOWER CHANCES GOING MONDAY WITH SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...POCKETS OF MVFR CIGS AND VERY LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THIS EVENING. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD DROP TO IFR LATE TONIGHT AS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

MARINE...BUOYS INDICATING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL SUSTAINED WINDS
AND/OR GUSTS IN SPITE OF NOCTURNAL LOWERING OVER LAND. THE TIGHT GRADIENT
LINGERS THROUGH MOST OF TODAY...THEN SLOWLY EASING AS A WEAK RIDGE
AXIS REACHING THE LAKE SHORE BY MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT. CURRENT ADVISORY
TIMING LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WOOD
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...COLLAR





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