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000
FXUS63 KMKX 252108
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
408 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

.TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...Forecast Confidence Is Medium.

A broken north to south line of showers and thunderstorms continues
to slide northeast across Green Lake to Rock Counties. More showers
and storms were seen extending into north central Illinois. These
showers and storms were being driven by the main 500 mb shortwave
trough moving northeast through the region, as well as some focused
850 mb warm air/moisture advection. HRRR model has handled this
convection fairly well, and takes it out of the far east by middle
evening. Will follow this general trend with high pops shifting
northeastward into this evening.

A quasi-stationary surface boundary extended northwest to southeast
across the area as well, with a sharp temperature gradient. This
boundary has been helping some storms intensify, and per earlier SPC
Mesoscale Discussion may serve to add some low level rotation
potential to any storms that cross it. This will need to be watched
for quick spin-ups over the next few hours.

SPC has entire area in a marginal severe risk, which implies
isolated severe storms possible. Given the mean layer CAPEs to
around 1000 J/kg, and deep layer shear of 30-plus knots, could see
an isolated severe storm occur.

Other issue to watch is slow movement of storms, which may drop
heavy rainfall in a short period of time. This would bring minor
street flooding possibilities in urban and low lying areas.

Chances for showers and storms later this evening into Thursday are
more uncertain. HRRR and NAMNest try to bring a slowly decaying band
of showers and storms into the western area after 09Z Thursday, with
other mesoscale models dry or taking this area to the south of
Wisconsin. Area does get into warm sector airmass, as warm front
moves northward. Not a lot to latch onto as far as forcing for
upward vertical motion during this time period. For now, will keep
lower end chance pops for later tonight, with lower pops on
Thursday. A good part of Thursday may end up dry.

Some fog is possible later tonight into Thursday morning, with dew
points in the lower 60s and light winds. Areas near the lake may see
some fog as well later this evening. Warm temperatures are expected
tonight into Thursday. Highs in the middle 80s are expected over
most of the area with south southwest winds Thursday. They may get a
bit warmer if area remains precipitation-free and fewer clouds
result.

.THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

All models bring weak short wave energy into srn WI overnight
Thursday night, with the 18Z NAM depicting a hefty meso-scale
convective vorticity maxima over the sw by 06Z. Will start dry in
the evening then trend pcpn in from sw to northeast with
strengthening 850mb winds/convergence. Better chances move in with
surface boundary lifting through the CWA Friday, followed by a short
wave for Friday night affecting mainly western sections of the CWA.

In spite of the precipitation still expect highs Friday to reach
around 80 inland with a south wind, with lakeside areas cooler
with onshore southeast winds. Expect lows in the lower to mid 60s
both nights.

.SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

Shower and storm chances continue with a persistent series of
vorticity maxima moving across the area ahead of the main 500 mb
trough, with the forecast area in the warm sector as the surface low
tracks to the west. Again, not an all-day rain but no one period
with low enough PoPs to have dry. Clouds and pcpn will hold highs
in the mid-upper 70s.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

Models have slowed passage of the mid-level trough through the
region Sunday...keeping higher chance PoPs in the forecast into
Sunday evening. Mid-level flow becomes a bit more zonal over the
Upper Midwest for Monday before backing ahead of another trough
crossing the northern inter-mountain states into the Northern Plains
Monday night into Tuesday night...picking up a short wave in the
Central Plains and lifting it up into the area Tuesday/Tuesday
night.

While overall pattern similar, timing/location differences in the
details lead to slight chance/chance PoPs through the extended.
Above normal temperature trend continues, but not as warm as this
week.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

Expect a broken line of showers and thunderstorms to continue to
move northeast across TAF sites through about 03Z Thursday. VFR
category conditions will prevail, though may see visibilities down
to fuel alternates in any showers/storms. Brief gusty winds and
small hail may occur as well. Easterly winds are expected at the
eastern sites into this evening, with south to southeast winds at
Madison.

Should see mainly quiet weather for most of the rest of tonight into
Thursday across TAF sites. There are outside chances for showers and
storms later tonight into early Thursday morning at Madison, but not
enough confidence to mention in TAFs at this point. Most of Thursday
may end up dry.

There should be a period of light fog and low clouds across the area
later tonight into Thursday morning. May see ceilings down to or
even below 1000 feet above ground level between 09Z and 15Z
Thursday, with visibilities down to around 2 miles. Some uncertainty
here with the timing and how low ceilings and visibilities will get.

&&

.MARINE...

A Marine Dense Fog Advisory continues for Sheboygan to Port
Washington until 00Z this evening. Webcams there continue to show
dense fog at Sheboygan. The rest of the waters do not show much in
the way of fog, but chances should increase later tonight with
higher dew points and warmer air moving back into the area. The
showers and storms should help improve visibilities by early this
evening. Fog should develop again later tonight into Thursday, as
more warmth and moisture move into the area.

The fog should linger through the upcoming weekend, as warm and
moist air lingers over the region. May see some dense fog at times,
as the moist airmass lingers over the cool lake waters.

&&

.MKX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening for LMZ643.

&&

$$

TONIGHT/Thursday AND AVIATION/MARINE...Wood
Thursday NIGHT THROUGH Wednesday...REM





000
FXUS63 KMKX 250850
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
350 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...Forecast Confidence - Medium.

Patchy fog should thin and dissipate fairly rapidly early this
morning.  However early morning sunshine should give way to
increasing mid-high clouds from the southwest associated with
incoming mid-level short wave trof and increasing warm air
advection.  Upstream vigorous short wave extends from south central
SD southeast into eastern NE/KS vicinity will continue to move
northeast today.  High precipitable waters already in place, between
1-1.25 inches.  However even deeper mid-level rh located upstream
will accompany short wave as it progresses northeast.  Although nose
of developing low level jet remains west of the area, combination of
increasing warm air and moisture advection along with axis of short
wave trof moving through should produce scattered to numerous
showers and tstorms across the CWA this afternoon and early evening.
Bulk shear later in the day looks more impressive than yesterday,
reaching around 35 kts with MUCape climbing to 1-2k joules. Marginal
risk covers western half of CWA which seems reasonable, with Slight
risk at the WI/IA border.  That may need to be scooched slightly
eastward into far western CWA as aftn shear in this area pushing 40-
45kts.  SPC SSEO showing a few spots of Updraft Helicity over 25
m2/s2 in the west at 21z.

Synoptic scale forcing associated with short wave moves off to the
northeast during the evening, however unstable atmosphere will
persist through the night and both NAM and GFS show weaker moisture
flux convergence returning later in the night.  Hence need to hold
onto chance pops for after 06z.

Afternoon convection will likely deposit some briefly heavy
rainfall, potentially amounts of over 1.0 inch in one hour resulting
in some ponding of water and minor street flooding.  NAM Corfidi
Vectors suggesting moderate to slower storm motion and storm motion
less than 10 m/s for a time.  With deeper warm cloud depth and a
period of stronger 925-850mb moisture convergence this aftn, these
storms will need to be watched closely for heavy rainfall.  Will
address in HWO.

.LONG TERM...

THURSDAY... Forecast confidence is medium.

Thursday might end up being hot and humid with quiet weather.
Southern WI will be in between shortwaves, with one exiting to our
northeast Thu morning and the next arriving Thu night.

925mb temps will be increasing to 21 or 22C by Thu afternoon. This
would yield max temps toward the mid 80s, although sunshine will be
necessary. The NAM brings remnants of an MCS through northern IL. If
this happens and southern WI stays under widespread cloud cover for
much of the day, then the max temps in the mid 80s is overdone.

There will be no focused low level jet (LLJ) or warm air advection
with the shortwave Thu night, so kept chances for storms on the
lower side.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... Forecast confidence is medium.

Friday will bring the next good chance for showers and
thunderstorms. The closed upper low over the southwest states will
progress northeast into the upper Midwest through Saturday. Repeated
waves of vorticity advection, a steady feed of moisture from the
Gulf and the LLJ directed into southern WI support one or more
rounds of convection during this period. Expect CAPE to be around
1000 j/kg or less, but the warm profile is showing tall, skinny
CAPE. Shear will continue to be around 20 kts. These conditions
support thunderstorms with the potential for a few to grow strong.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY... Forecast confidence is medium.

The weakening upper trough will slide through northern WI on Sunday
and the corresponding surface low will track across Lake Superior.
The GFS is slower to move the trough out of the area than the ECMWF,
so it hangs on to precip chances a little longer.

We will transition into a temporary zonal flow pattern for Memorial
Day. There is little in the way of upper level forcing to support
precip chances, and the GFS looks way overdone with its qpf.
Southern WI will still be in the mild air mass, so expect
temperatures in the lower 80s.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... Forecast confidence is medium.

A mid level shortwave will make its way across the northern Plains.
This will bring another chance for showers and storms to southern
WI. Mild temperatures with southerly flow will continue until this
system moves through the area.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

Fog will continue to affect the KUES area due to light winds and
Tuesday rainfall.  Still need to be cautious about some low clouds
in the vicinity of weakening front affecting eastern taf sites this
morning.   Otherwise, mid-high clouds this morning will give way to
scattered afternoon and early evening t-storms.  An isolated severe
storm will be possible along with brief heavy rainfall.  Cigs may
flirt with MVFR levels during precipitation but should return to VFR
for a time tonight, however confidence lower due to lingering low
level moisture and increasing boundary layer winds.  Enough
convergence to possibly generate some stratus along with areas of
lighter fog.

&&

.MARINE...

Weak frontal boundary sagging south across near shore waters will
result in variable winds early this morning turning more e to
northeast.  Some patchy fog may develop due to lighter winds
associated with front and more humid air in place.  Sfc dewpoints
for now only a few degrees higher than water temp so not expecting
widespread dense fog, at least today.  Increasing southerly winds
should pull higher dewpoints across cooler Lake MI waters tonight
and Thursday, increasing the threat for more widespread dense fog.
Mariners should be on the lookout for scattered late aftn and eve
storms over the near shore waters. Gusty winds with storms may
approach 30-35kts.

&&

.MKX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
Thursday THROUGH Tuesday...MRC





000
FXUS63 KMKX 242040
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
340 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...Forecast Confidence Is Medium.

Scattered showers and some thunderstorms have moved northeast of
Sheboygan and Port Washington, out over Lake Michigan. Additional
scattered showers were moving northeast through portions of the
forecast area. They were being helped along by a confluent low level
boundary, as well as a passing weak 500 mb vorticity maximum and
some weakly focused 850 mb warm air advection. Mesoscale models have
this area of showers gradually shifting east of the area by the
early evening hours.

Adjusting dew points on area forecast soundings from synoptic models
downward, and upward on some of the mesoscale models, gives 500 to
800 J/kg of tall, skinny mean layer CAPE into early evening. Given
the lack of focused upward vertical motion, mentioned just isolated
thunder into this evening. Deep layer shear is around 20 knots at
best, so not anticipating anything severe.

HRRR and other mesoscale/synoptic models look rather dry for the
rest of tonight and even into early Wednesday morning, with a lack
of forcing for upward vertical motion over the area. Cut back the
pops somewhat tonight, and may need further trimming or removal
later on.

Main issue later tonight into Wednesday morning will be fog
potential over the area. Dew points will gradually hold steady or
slowly rise tonight into Wednesday morning, then rise Wednesday
afternoon. Models have been too high with dew points for awhile in
general, so lowered consensus blend values several degrees.

Still, upper 50s northeast to lower 60s southwest dew points look
reasonable for later tonight into Wednesday morning. Light winds
during this time should allow for patchy fog to develop across most
of the area, best bet in the north and east. Onshore winds Wednesday
afternoon may keep the fog going near the lake. Dense fog is not out
of the question, but will hold off for now until better confidence
in higher dew point values can be found.

Continued to trend higher with pops later Wednesday morning into the
afternoon southwest to northeast across the area. Models agree on a
500 mb shortwave trough moving northeast into the area during this
time. Southerly flow continues at 850 mb, with moisture continuing
to steadily flow into the area. This should be enough to bring
decent chances for showers and storms. Some uncertainty here, as
best forcing for ascent is northwest and south of the area.

Adjusted area forecast soundings suggest mean layer CAPES around
1000 J/kg with 20 knots or so of deep layer shear. Marginal risk for
severe is in the western portions of the area, which looks
reasonable given the better dew points there. Clouds may keep highs
a bit cooler than currently forecast inland, with onshore winds
keeping lakeshore areas quite a bit cooler.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

Ongoing convection will begin to wind down from southwest to
northeast during the evening as short wave energy and surface low
move away to the northeast, but still expect a few showers and
storms to fire with southerly winds impinging on a trailing thermal
boundary that stalls somewhere over southern Wisconsin/northern
Illinois.

Expect a break in the precipitation for a time Thursday morning into
the afternoon as the boundary lifts northward, but differing timing
among the models leads to at least slight chance PoPs through the
day. 925 mb thermal ridge builds over the state, with 20C to 24C 925
mb temperatures in place by 00Z Friday. Blended temperatures in the
mid-80s may not be warm enough if the middle of the day is dry with
some sun breaking through.

.THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

Low-level winds back and increase as 500 mb wave moves out from the
4-corners region into the central Plains, deepening the 500 mb
trough Thursday night into Friday. Focus of the forcing with the low-
level winds is mainly to the west Thursday night, shifting east
Friday with lift aided by weak short wave energy. Again not
expecting all day showers/storms but low confidence to remove rain
chances for any one period. Temperatures will remain above normal.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

After a short wave trough lifts through the region Saturday into
Sunday, a subtle change to the pattern as a 500 mb low begins to
consolidate over the nw U.S/sw Canada and short wave energy becomes
less active into the Upper Midwest, focusing more back to the
Plains. However broad lee trough over the Plains keeps warm, and
at times moist, flow into the region through the extended, with
precipitable water values hovering around 1 inch. The resulting
instability seems to be the main reason for the diurnally-driven
periods of showers and storms in the models...especially Monday
and Tuesday since there is no obvious strong trigger for
convection. Temperatures will remain a good 7F to 10F above
normal.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

Scattered showers are expected to continue moving northeast across
the area into early this evening, before moving to the east of the
area. There may be a few thunderstorms as well during this time, but
timing and placement of storms will be tough to pinpoint with some
uncertainty in areal coverage. For now, will just mention vicinity
thunder in TAFs into early this evening. The southeast sites may end
up dry.

The rest of tonight into early Wednesday morning may end up dry
across the area. Main issue will be low clouds and fog developing
later tonight into Wednesday morning, especially at the eastern
sites. Continued to mention ceilings around or below 2000 feet later
tonight at Milwaukee and perhaps Kenosha, with visibilities down to
1 mile. Dense fog is possible during this time at these sites, but
will leave out of TAFs for now due to uncertainty. The other sites
should see visibilities down to around 3 miles with ceilings above
2000 feet.

Better shot for more widespread showers and thunderstorms comes
Wednesday afternoon, as a warm front moves north toward the area.
May see a gradual increase in areal coverage of these showers and
storms during the afternoon hours, though some uncertainty remains
here with this. Visibilities and ceilings may drop to or below
alternate minimums in any of the storms. Fog may linger into the
afternoon at Milwaukee and Kenosha as well with onshore winds, but
left out for now due to uncertainty.

&&

.MARINE...

Higher dew points gradually moving into the region tonight, and
lingering into the upcoming weekend, will encounter the cooler
waters of Lake Michigan. Light winds later tonight into Wednesday
morning may allow for fog to form over the waters. Continued patchy
fog wording for now later tonight into Wednesday, though stronger
wording may be needed as the higher dew points work into the area.
Dense fog is possible at times during this period, and may need
advisories at times.

&&

.MKX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

TONIGHT/Wednesday AND AVIATION/MARINE...Wood
Wednesday NIGHT THROUGH Tuesday...REM





000
FXUS63 KMKX 241802 AAA
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
102 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.UPDATE...

Scattered showers are moving northeast through western and central
portions of the forecast area, associated with a passing weak 500
mb vorticity maximum and some weakly focused 850 mb warm air
advection. Several mesoscale models have these showers shifting
northeast through the area this afternoon, with the HRRR being the
closest to reality so far today.

Adjusting dew points on area forecast soundings from synoptic
models downward, and upward on some of the mesoscale models, gives
500 to 800 J/kg of mean layer CAPE this afternoon into early
evening. So, continued the thunder mention as well. Deep layer
shear is around 20 knots at best, so not anticipating anything
severe. The southeast counties may remain dry until early this
evening.

HRRR and other mesoscale models look rather dry for the rest of
tonight, so may have to trim back pops. Middle clouds helping hold
down temperatures a bit in the area, so may need to adjust them
downward in spots. Still looks to reach the upper 70s to lower 80s
in most areas. Onshore winds along the lake will keep cooler
temperatures there.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

Scattered showers are expected to continue moving northeast across
the area this afternoon, before ending early this evening. There
should be a few thunderstorms as well during this time, but timing
and placement of storms will be tough to pinpoint with some
uncertainty in areal coverage. For now, will just mention
vicinity thunder in TAFs this afternoon into early this evening.

Tonight may end up dry across the area, with the main issue being
low clouds and fog developing later tonight into Wednesday
morning. Continued to mention ceilings around or below 2000 feet
later tonight at Milwaukee and Kenosha, with visibilities down to
1 mile. May see dense fog develop at times later tonight into
early Wednesday morning at these sites, as winds become light. The
other sites should see visibilities down to 3 miles with ceilings
above 2000 feet.

Better shot for more widespread showers and thunderstorms comes
Wednesday afternoon, as a warm front moves north toward the area.
Should see a gradual increase in areal coverage of these showers
and storms during the afternoon hours. Visibilities and ceilings
may drop to or below alternate minimums in any stronger storms.
Fog may linger into the afternoon at Milwaukee and Kenosha as
well, but left out for now due to uncertainty.

&&

.MARINE...

Higher dew points moving into the region tonight into the rest of
the week will encounter the cooler waters of Lake Michigan. Light
winds later tonight into Wednesday morning may allow for areas of
fog to form over the waters. Dense fog is possible during this
time, and a Dense Fog Advisory may be needed in later forecasts
for this period. The fog may persist at times into this weekend,
with the warm and humid airmass over the cooler waters lingering.
Dense fog may be possible at times into the weekend as well.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 330 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...Forecast confidence - Medium.

We know it had to happen eventually.  Blocking high pressure ridge
that had been bringing beautiful, dry weather to southern Wi has
finally been nudged farther eastward into the central Great Lakes.
Our region will now be under the influence of persistent west to
southwest steering flow this period, and through the end of the
week.  This southwest steering flow will usher deeper column
moisture into the area today.  Expect surface dewpoints to increase
into the 50s to around 60 today as column precipitable water more
than doubles to around 1-1.25 inches.  These increasing southwest
winds are carrying a mesoscale convective eddy currently located in
central IA to the northeast.  Short term guidance not handling this
very well as showers and a few tstorms continue to develop and move
northeast.  For now have chance pops in my west early this morning,
but if trend continues, will be bumping up to scattered or possibly
numerous wording.  Spread chance pops across entire CWA later this
morning and afternoon.  Any convection from this morning`s passing
eddy may leave boundary draped across the area. MUCapes are expected
to climb into the 1-2k range with around 30 kts of bulk shear.
Marginal risk seems appropriate this aftn and eve as isold severe
appears possible.

Starting out warmer today and with periods of thinner mid-high
clouds, bumped up high temperatures several degrees, mainly for
inland areas.  Wl keep lower chance pops for the overnight hours as
weak frontal boundary slides south into parts of southern WI and
elevated instability remains. However chance definitely lower
than today as weak short wave ridging spreads across the area, and
low level jet refocuses farther west in the plains. Will need to
watch for fog development near the lake as winds turn onshore
later tngt.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...Forecast Confidence...Medium

The front is expected to lift northward through the forecast area
Wednesday, likely bringing showers and thunderstorms with it.

It will likely be somewhat cooler most places Wednesday with the
front slowly making progress back into the area. Coolest temps
will be near Lake Michigan under east winds. Would not be
surprised at some fog lingering into Wed in the east given the
onshore winds and higher dewpoints over the cooler water.

SPC has cut back on the Marginal Risk for severe storms for Wed,
with only the southwest forecast area highlighted at this time.

It is starting to look mainly dry on Thursday, as model soundings
are fairly capped. Cut back pops to slight chances most places
during the day. With 925 mb temps of 22-24 C per most guidance,
could be a pretty warm day. Bumped temps up a bit, but not as high
as 925 mb temps would suggest due to some uncertainty with
timing/placement of the front and associated convection.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...Forecast Confidence...Medium

Shortwave energy along with a surge of deeper moisture should
result in more rounds of showers/storms from Thursday night
through Saturday.

Kept chance pops for Sunday and Monday, but overall moisture will
be less and there is not a real obvious trigger for convection
during this period. Still can`t rule out a few storms though given
the expected instability and precipitable water values hanging on
at 1 to 1.25 inches.

Above normal temperatures will likely continue late in the week
and into early next week.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

Thicker cloud cover is expected today as deeper column moisture and
weak short wave low pressure pass through this morning. Atmosphere
becomes unstable this morning so possible a few storms could briefly
affect taf sites.  More scattered t-storms expected this aftn and
evening which would have a better chance of affecting eastern taf
sites.  Cigs should remain mostly vfr.  Later tonight a weak front
will sag south into parts of central and southeast Wi and may bring
some lower mvfr cigs to taf sites.

MARINE...

Mariners will need to watch for late morning and afternoon
thunderstorms as deeper moisture and atmospheric low pressure
ripples move into the western Great Lakes today.  The threat for
showers and thunderstorms will continue tonight as a weak frontal
boundary slips south across central into southern Lake Michigan.
The more humid air mass and lighter winds near the front may
result in areas of fog tonight into Wednesday. Lake temperatures
are in the upper 40s to middle 50s. With the humid air remaining
place through the end of the week, fog will be a concern each day.

&&

.MKX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Wood
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
Wednesday THROUGH Monday...DDV





000
FXUS63 KMKX 240830
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
330 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...Forecast confidence - Medium.

We know it had to happen eventually.  Blocking high pressure ridge
that had been bringing beautiful, dry weather to southern Wi has
finally been nudged farther eastward into the central Great Lakes.
Our region will now be under the influence of persistent west to
southwest steering flow this period, and through the end of the
week.  This southwest steering flow will usher deeper column
moisture into the area today.  Expect surface dewpoints to increase
into the 50s to around 60 today as column precipitable water more
than doubles to around 1-1.25 inches.  These increasing southwest
winds are carrying a mesoscale convective eddy currently located in
central IA to the northeast.  Short term guidance not handling this
very well as showers and a few tstorms continue to develop and move
northeast.  For now have chance pops in my west early this morning,
but if trend continues, will be bumping up to scattered or possibly
numerous wording.  Spread chance pops across entire CWA later this
morning and afternoon.  Any convection from this morning`s passing
eddy may leave boundary draped across the area. MUCapes are expected
to climb into the 1-2k range with around 30 kts of bulk shear.
Marginal risk seems appropriate this aftn and eve as isold severe
appears possible.

Starting out warmer today and with periods of thinner mid-high
clouds, bumped up high temperatures several degrees, mainly for
inland areas.  Wl keep lower chance pops for the overnight hours as
weak frontal boundary slides south into parts of southern WI and
elevated instability remains. However chance definitely lower
than today as weak short wave ridging spreads across the area, and
low level jet refocuses farther west in the plains. Will need to
watch for fog development near the lake as winds turn onshore
later tngt.

.WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...Forecast Confidence...Medium

The front is expected to lift northward through the forecast area
Wednesday, likely bringing showers and thunderstorms with it.

It will likely be somewhat cooler most places Wednesday with the
front slowly making progress back into the area. Coolest temps
will be near Lake Michigan under east winds. Would not be
surprised at some fog lingering into Wed in the east given the
onshore winds and higher dewpoints over the cooler water.

SPC has cut back on the Marginal Risk for severe storms for Wed,
with only the southwest forecast area highlighted at this time.

It is starting to look mainly dry on Thursday, as model soundings
are fairly capped. Cut back pops to slight chances most places
during the day. With 925 mb temps of 22-24 C per most guidance,
could be a pretty warm day. Bumped temps up a bit, but not as high
as 925 mb temps would suggest due to some uncertainty with
timing/placement of the front and associated convection.

.THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...Forecast Confidence...Medium

Shortwave energy along with a surge of deeper moisture should
result in more rounds of showers/storms from Thursday night
through Saturday.

Kept chance pops for Sunday and Monday, but overall moisture will
be less and there is not a real obvious trigger for convection
during this period. Still can`t rule out a few storms though given
the expected instability and precipitable water values hanging on
at 1 to 1.25 inches.

Above normal temperatures will likely continue late in the week
and into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

Thicker cloud cover is expected today as deeper column moisture and
weak short wave low pressure pass through this morning. Atmosphere
becomes unstable this morning so possible a few storms could briefly
affect taf sites.  More scattered t-storms expected this aftn and
evening which would have a better chance of affecting eastern taf
sites.  Cigs should remain mostly vfr.  Later tonight a weak front
will sag south into parts of central and southeast Wi and may bring
some lower mvfr cigs to taf sites.

&&

.MARINE...

Mariners will need to watch for late morning and afternoon
thunderstorms as deeper moisture and atmospheric low pressure
ripples move into the western Great Lakes today.  The threat for
showers and thunderstorms will continue tonight as a weak frontal
boundary slips south across central into southern Lake Michigan.
The more humid air mass and lighter winds near the front may
result in areas of fog tonight into Wednesday. Lake temperatures
are in the upper 40s to middle 50s. With the humid air remaining
place through the end of the week, fog will be a concern each day.

&&

.MKX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
Wednesday THROUGH Monday...DDV





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