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000
FXUS63 KMKX 140930
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
330 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...THIS SECTION WILL BE ADDED SHORTLY.

.MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

A WEAK WAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT MOISTURE AND LIFT ARE VERY LIMITED...SO WENT DRY.

YET ANOTHER WAVE IS EXPECTED TUESDAY...BUT THE BULK OF MOISTURE/LIFT
WILL REMAIN SOUTH NEAR THE SURFACE LOW. STILL...COULD SEE A FEW
SNOWFLAKES AS THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH...SO KEPT SOME LOW POPS.

SHOULD BE DRY WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

CONSENSUS BLEND OF MODELS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST NEAR TO A BIT
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS MONDAY/TUESDAY. LOOKS COLDER THEN WEDNESDAY
BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH.

.THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN SOUTHERLY THURSDAY BETWEEN STRENGTHENING
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING EASTWARD AND A STRONG LOW APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST. TEMPS WILL RECOVER BACK TO NEAR OR A BIT ABOVE NORMAL.
IT WILL LIKELY BE EVEN MILDER FRIDAY AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH BY
EVENING...WITH 50 DEGREES A GOOD POSSIBILITY IF CURRENT MODELS
VERIFY.

PRECIP MAY DEVELOP THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE LOW...WITH RAIN OR
FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE IN THE EVENING...DEPENDING ON TEMPS AS THE
PRECIP ARRIVES. MODELS SUGGEST ALL RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT AS MILDER
AIR CONTINUES TO PUSH IN TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. RAIN CHANCES ARE
THEN FORECAST TO PERSIST INTO FRIDAY EVENING.

SHOULD BE DRY SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. TEMPS SHOULD BE
COOLER...BUT PROBABLY STILL ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/ AND MARINE...THESE SECTIONS WILL BE ADDED SHORTLY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CST THIS
     EVENING FOR WIZ062-067-068.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CST THIS
     EVENING FOR WIZ063-069.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR
     LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...GEHRING
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DDV





000
FXUS63 KMKX 140300
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
900 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.UPDATE...

00Z NAM VERY SIMILAR WITH SNOW AMOUNTS. THEREFORE WILL NOT CHANGE
FORECAST. SLOWED ARRIVAL OF SNOW A FEW HOURS...ESPECIALLY
SOUTHEAST...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES OFF
LAKE MICHIGAN AS SOUTHEAST WINDS DEVELOP.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...

EXPECT HIGH CLOUDS TO THICKEN AND LOWER TONIGHT. 700 MILLIBAR RH
ON THE INCREASE. SFC RIDGE AXIS POSITIONED ACROSS SOUTHEAST
WISCONSIN AT 06Z AND THEN INTO THE OH VALLEY LATER IN THE NIGHT.
LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SNOW SPREADING ACROSS SRN WI SUNDAY
MORNING IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING MOISTURE AND APPROACHING SHORTWAVE.
CONSIDERABLE LOW AND MID LEVEL DRY AIR SHOULD SATURATE RAPIDLY IN
A TOP/DOWN FASHION DURING THE MORNING AS VERTICAL MOTION FIELD
RAMPS UP WITHIN A DEEP DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. HARD TO ARGUE WITH
THE TRENDS IN MOS WITH CIGS/VSBYS SHOWING A LOWERING TREND TO IFR
LEVELS.

&&

MARINE...
SOUTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH. SATELLITE IMAGERY
DID SHOW SOME ICE COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO
ZONES. WOULD STILL EXPECT THE ONSHORE FLOW TO LEAD TO SOME HIGHER
WAVES IN ICE FREE AREAS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTHWEST
SUNDAY NIGHT AND DEPENDING ON THE MODEL COULD REMAIN GUSTY. SOME
POTENTIAL FOR A SLACKENING GRADIENT WITHIN THE TROUGH AXIS SO
ADVISORY MAY BE ABLE TO END SOONER DEPENDING ON LINGERING WAVE
ACTION.

ALSO EXPECT SOME MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM

COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE INTO THIS EVENING. RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA AFTER 06Z WITH SOME UPTICK IN SOUTHERLY
SFC/925 FLOW NOTED IN THE PROGS. HOWEVER CONCERN LIES WITH HOW
HARD TEMPS CRASH HERE IN THE EVENING ESP WITH CLOUD DECK STILL A
WAYS OFF. WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE AND AIRMASS IS QUITE
DRY. CURRENT FORECAST LOWS ARE ALREADY COLDER THAN MOST GUID SO WE
MAY BE IN GOOD SHAPE. 700 RH DOES INCREASE INTO SW 1/2 OF THE CWA
LATER IN THE NIGHT BUT THE NORTHEAST SHOWS LITTLE MOISTURE. WAA
BAND OF LIGHT SNOWS MAY NUDGE INTO THE FAR SW CWA LATER IN THE
NIGHT. LATEST MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS AREA WITH
LIGHT QPF.

SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM

COMBO OF WAA AND DCVA WITH APPCH SHORTWAVE WILL LEAD TO APPRECIABLE
VERTICAL MOTION TO SUPPORT SNOW DEVELOPMENT FROM SW TO NE ACRS SRN
WI DURG THE MRNG HRS. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR TO OVERCOME
FROM THIS LINGERING ARCTIC AIRMASS SO SOME CONCERN THAT MODEL QPF
VALUES ARE TOO HIGH. THIS HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT BEARED OUT WITH LOWER
SUPERBLEND QPF NUMBERS. SO SNOW AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN TRIMMED A SMIDGE.
STILL THINK AREAS FROM KMSN TO LOCALES WEST AND SOUTH IS WHERE
GREATEST CONFIDENCE IS OF 3 INCH PLUS TOTALS...SO WILL MATCH WITH
ARX/DVN/LOT AND HOIST AN ADVISORY FOR THESE AREAS. TEMPS WILL BE
MILDER WITH THE 925/850 THERMAL ADVECTION PATTERN. CONSENSUS OF
MOS LOOKS PRETTY GOOD.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM

LIGHT SNOW WILL LINGER OVER THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THE MONDAY MORNING AS A BROAD 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSLATES
THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE GFS MODEL IS SHOWING A POSITIVE
VORTICITY ADVECTION MAXIMA SWEEPING RIGHT ALONG THE WI/IL BORDER.
THE NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING SATURATION WITHIN THE
DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE BETWEEN THE 950-600 MB LAYER BETWEEN
00Z AND 12Z MONDAY. HOWEVER...ISENTROPIC OMEGA PROFILES LOOK
MARGINALLY NEGATIVE...INDICATING LIMITED LIFT WITHIN THE DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE.

AFTER 12Z MONDAY...THE MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A WARMING THERMAL
PROFILE COUPLED WITH DRY AIR INTRUSION IN THE MID LEVELS. THIS
SHOULD LEAD TO THE END OF THE SNOWFALL BY THE MONDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...SOME FLURRIES ARE STILL POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY MONDAY
AS LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN IN THE AFTERNOON.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW

A BRIEF RESPITE FROM PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO S WI MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE A CLIPPER SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO
TRANSLATE THROUGH CENTRAL IA AND INTO IL. S WI COULD SEE
PRECIPITATION AS EARLY AS MID MORNING TUESDAY. SOME QUESTIONS
EXIST ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE HEAVIEST AXIS OF PRECIPITATION WILL
GO...AS WELL AS HOW QUICKLY THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. BOTH THE
13.12Z NAM AND GFS ARE SHOWING QPF ENTERING S WI BY 15Z TUE AND
EXITING BY 06Z WED. THE NAM PROGS THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW MOVING
ABOUT 80 MILES TO THE NORTHWEST OF WHERE THE GFS IS PROGGING THE
SFC LOW AT 18Z TUE. AS A RESULT...THE NAM IS BRINGING MORE QPF TO
S WI THAN THE GFS IS...WITH A DIFFERENCE OF ABOUT 0.15" OF QPF.
DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY...WENT WITH THE CONSENSUS MODEL BLENDS TO
HANDLE QPF.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH

WED AND THURS ARE LOOKING QUIET AS MID LEVEL RIDGING COUPLED WITH
ASSOCIATED SFC HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL OF THE REGION. ANOTHER
FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP...BUT LOOKS TO KEEP
ITS DISTANCE FROM S WI AND MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL IA AND CENTRAL IL.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE MORE SEASONAL...ESPECIALLY FOR THURSDAY AS
LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION ENTERS THE SOUTHERN PART OF WISCONSIN
THURSDAY INTO THE DAY FRIDAY. THE FORECAST AREA IS PROGGED TO BE
BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
EAST...WHICH WILL HELP USHER IN THE WARM AIR FROM THE SOUTH AS
WINDS TURN FROM THE SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION. HIGHS WED LOOK TO BE
IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S AND THE LOWER TO MID 30S THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW

ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO DIVE THROUGH THE UPPER
MIDWEST FRIDAY...WHICH COULD BRING ANOTHER SHOT AT PRECIPITATION.
HOWEVER...MOST PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS SHOULD BE RAIN DUE TO THE
ABOVE FREEZING THERMAL PROFILES. THERE IS A CHANCE OF LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN FOR OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE A
MORE FAVORABLE THERMAL PROFILE FOR RAIN MOVES IN. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS THE QPF AMOUNTS DIFFER BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF
MODELS. WILL GO WITH THE CONSENSUS MODEL BLENDS FOR NOW. HIGHS
FRIDAY LOOK TO BE ON COURSE FOR THE LOWER TO MID 40S ACROSS S WI.

SATURDAY LOOKS QUIET AS THE LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS SATURDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL BACK DOWN AS THE LOW DEPARTS AND A
NORTHWESTERLY WIND REGIME BRINGS IN COOLER AIR.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...VFR SKC CONTINUES WITH HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS. 700 MILLIBAR RH ON THE
INCREASE BUT NOT UNTIL AFTER 06Z. IN FACT...MODELS KEEP MUCH OF NE
CWA LARGELY CLOUD FREE FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. SFC RIDGE AXIS
POSITIONED ACROSS FAR ERN WI AT 06Z AND THEN INTO THE OH VLY LATER
IN THE NIGHT. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SNOW SPREADING ACROSS
SRN WI SUNDAY MORNING IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING LLVL WAA AND APPCHNG
SHORTWAVE. CONSIDERABLE LOW AND MID LEVEL DRY AIR PER BUFKIT IS
PROGGD TO SATURATE RAPIDLY IN A TOP/DOWN FASHION DURING THE MORNING
AS VERTICAL MOTION FIELD RAMPS UP WITHIN A DEEP DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE. HARD TO ARGUE WITH THE TRENDS IN MOS WITH CIGS/VSBYS SHOWING A
LOWERING TREND TO IFR LEVELS. HAVE TRIMMED SNOW AMOUNTS DOWN
SLIGHTLY.

MARINE...SOUTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH. VSBL
IMAGERY DOES SHOW SOME ICE COVERAGE...ESP ACROSS THE SRN TWO ZONES.
WOULD STILL EXPECT THE ONSHORE FLOW TO LEAD TO SOME HIGHER WAVES IN
ICE FREE AREAS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT
AND DEPENDING ON THE MODEL COULD REMAIN GUSTY. SOME POTENTIAL FOR A
SLACKENING GRADIENT WITHIN THE TROUGH AXIS SO ADVISORY MAY BE ABLE
TO END SOONER DEPENDING ON LINGERING WAVE ACTION.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 9 PM CST SUNDAY FOR WIZ062-
     063-067>069.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR
     LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HENTZ
TONIGHT/SUNDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...COLLAR
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...JTS





000
FXUS63 KMKX 132124
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
324 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM

COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE INTO THIS EVENING. RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA AFTER 06Z WITH SOME UPTICK IN SOUTHERLY
SFC/925 FLOW NOTED IN THE PROGS. HOWEVER CONCERN LIES WITH HOW
HARD TEMPS CRASH HERE IN THE EVENING ESP WITH CLOUD DECK STILL A
WAYS OFF. WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE AND AIRMASS IS QUITE
DRY. CURRENT FORECAST LOWS ARE ALREADY COLDER THAN MOST GUID SO WE
MAY BE IN GOOD SHAPE. 700 RH DOES INCREASE INTO SW 1/2 OF THE CWA
LATER IN THE NIGHT BUT THE NORTHEAST SHOWS LITTLE MOISTURE. WAA
BAND OF LIGHT SNOWS MAY NUDGE INTO THE FAR SW CWA LATER IN THE
NIGHT. LATEST MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS AREA WITH
LIGHT QPF.

.SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM

COMBO OF WAA AND DCVA WITH APPCH SHORTWAVE WILL LEAD TO APPRECIABLE
VERTICAL MOTION TO SUPPORT SNOW DEVELOPMENT FROM SW TO NE ACRS SRN
WI DURG THE MRNG HRS. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR TO OVERCOME
FROM THIS LINGERING ARCTIC AIRMASS SO SOME CONCERN THAT MODEL QPF
VALUES ARE TOO HIGH. THIS HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT BEARED OUT WITH LOWER
SUPERBLEND QPF NUMBERS. SO SNOW AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN TRIMMED A SMIDGE.
STILL THINK AREAS FROM KMSN TO LOCALES WEST AND SOUTH IS WHERE
GREATEST CONFIDENCE IS OF 3 INCH PLUS TOTALS...SO WILL MATCH WITH
ARX/DVN/LOT AND HOIST AN ADVISORY FOR THESE AREAS. TEMPS WILL BE
MILDER WITH THE 925/850 THERMAL ADVECTION PATTERN. CONSENSUS OF
MOS LOOKS PRETTY GOOD.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM

LIGHT SNOW WILL LINGER OVER THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THE MONDAY MORNING AS A BROAD 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSLATES
THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE GFS MODEL IS SHOWING A POSITIVE
VORTICITY ADVECTION MAXIMA SWEEPING RIGHT ALONG THE WI/IL BORDER.
THE NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING SATURATION WITHIN THE
DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE BETWEEN THE 950-600 MB LAYER BETWEEN
00Z AND 12Z MONDAY. HOWEVER...ISENTROPIC OMEGA PROFILES LOOK
MARGINALLY NEGATIVE...INDICATING LIMITED LIFT WITHIN THE DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE.

AFTER 12Z MONDAY...THE MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A WARMING THERMAL
PROFILE COUPLED WITH DRY AIR INTRUSION IN THE MID LEVELS. THIS
SHOULD LEAD TO THE END OF THE SNOWFALL BY THE MONDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...SOME FLURRIES ARE STILL POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY MONDAY
AS LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN IN THE AFTERNOON.

.MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW

A BRIEF RESPITE FROM PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO S WI MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE A CLIPPER SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO
TRANSLATE THROUGH CENTRAL IA AND INTO IL. S WI COULD SEE
PRECIPITATION AS EARLY AS MID MORNING TUESDAY. SOME QUESTIONS
EXIST ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE HEAVIEST AXIS OF PRECIPITATION WILL
GO...AS WELL AS HOW QUICKLY THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. BOTH THE
13.12Z NAM AND GFS ARE SHOWING QPF ENTERING S WI BY 15Z TUE AND
EXITING BY 06Z WED. THE NAM PROGS THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW MOVING
ABOUT 80 MILES TO THE NORTHWEST OF WHERE THE GFS IS PROGGING THE
SFC LOW AT 18Z TUE. AS A RESULT...THE NAM IS BRINGING MORE QPF TO
S WI THAN THE GFS IS...WITH A DIFFERENCE OF ABOUT 0.15" OF QPF.
DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY...WENT WITH THE CONSENSUS MODEL BLENDS TO
HANDLE QPF.

.WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH

WED AND THURS ARE LOOKING QUIET AS MID LEVEL RIDGING COUPLED WITH
ASSOCIATED SFC HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL OF THE REGION. ANOTHER
FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP...BUT LOOKS TO KEEP
ITS DISTANCE FROM S WI AND MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL IA AND CENTRAL IL.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE MORE SEASONAL...ESPECIALLY FOR THURSDAY AS
LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION ENTERS THE SOUTHERN PART OF WISCONSIN
THURSDAY INTO THE DAY FRIDAY. THE FORECAST AREA IS PROGGED TO BE
BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
EAST...WHICH WILL HELP USHER IN THE WARM AIR FROM THE SOUTH AS
WINDS TURN FROM THE SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION. HIGHS WED LOOK TO BE
IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S AND THE LOWER TO MID 30S THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW

ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO DIVE THROUGH THE UPPER
MIDWEST FRIDAY...WHICH COULD BRING ANOTHER SHOT AT PRECIPITATION.
HOWEVER...MOST PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS SHOULD BE RAIN DUE TO THE
ABOVE FREEZING THERMAL PROFILES. THERE IS A CHANCE OF LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN FOR OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE A
MORE FAVORABLE THERMAL PROFILE FOR RAIN MOVES IN. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS THE QPF AMOUNTS DIFFER BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF
MODELS. WILL GO WITH THE CONSENSUS MODEL BLENDS FOR NOW. HIGHS
FRIDAY LOOK TO BE ON COURSE FOR THE LOWER TO MID 40S ACROSS S WI.

SATURDAY LOOKS QUIET AS THE LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS SATURDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL BACK DOWN AS THE LOW DEPARTS AND A
NORTHWESTERLY WIND REGIME BRINGS IN COOLER AIR.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...VFR SKC CONTINUES WITH HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS. 700 MILLIBAR RH ON THE
INCREASE BUT NOT UNTIL AFTER 06Z. IN FACT...MODELS KEEP MUCH OF NE
CWA LARGELY CLOUD FREE FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. SFC RIDGE AXIS
POSITIONED ACROSS FAR ERN WI AT 06Z AND THEN INTO THE OH VLY LATER
IN THE NIGHT. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SNOW SPREADING ACROSS
SRN WI SUNDAY MORNING IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING LLVL WAA AND APPCHNG
SHORTWAVE. CONSIDERABLE LOW AND MID LEVEL DRY AIR PER BUFKIT IS
PROGGD TO SATURATE RAPIDLY IN A TOP/DOWN FASHION DURING THE MORNING
AS VERTICAL MOTION FIELD RAMPS UP WITHIN A DEEP DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE. HARD TO ARGUE WITH THE TRENDS IN MOS WITH CIGS/VSBYS SHOWING A
LOWERING TREND TO IFR LEVELS. HAVE TRIMMED SNOW AMOUNTS DOWN
SLIGHTLY.

&&

.MARINE...SOUTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH. VSBL
IMAGERY DOES SHOW SOME ICE COVERAGE...ESP ACROSS THE SRN TWO ZONES.
WOULD STILL EXPECT THE ONSHORE FLOW TO LEAD TO SOME HIGHER WAVES IN
ICE FREE AREAS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT
AND DEPENDING ON THE MODEL COULD REMAIN GUSTY. SOME POTENTIAL FOR A
SLACKENING GRADIENT WITHIN THE TROUGH AXIS SO ADVISORY MAY BE ABLE
TO END SOONER DEPENDING ON LINGERING WAVE ACTION.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 9 PM CST SUNDAY FOR WIZ062-
     063-067>069.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR
     LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

TONIGHT/SUNDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...COLLAR
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...JTS





000
FXUS63 KMKX 131613
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1013 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...VFR SKC CONTINUES WITH HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS. 700 MILLIBAR RH ON THE
INCREASE BUT NOT UNTIL AFTER 06Z. IN FACT...MODELS KEEP MUCH OF
NE CWA LARGELY CLOUD FREE FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. SFC RIDGE AXIS
POSITIONED ACROSS FAR ERN WI AT 06Z AND THEN INTO THE OH VLY LATER
IN THE NIGHT. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SPREADING ACROSS SRN
WI SUNDAY MORNING IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING LLVL WAA AND APPCHNG
SHORTWAVE. CONSIDERABLE LOW AND MID LEVEL DRY AIR PER BUFKIT IS
PROGGD TO SATURATE RAPIDLY IN A TOP/DOWN FASHION DURING THE
MORNING AS VERTICAL MOTION FIELD RAMPS UP WITHIN A DEEP DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE. HARD TO ARGUE WITH THE TRENDS IN MOS WITH CIGS/VSBYS
SHOWING A LOWERING TREND TO IFR LEVELS. ATTM EXPECTING NO MAJOR
SNOWFALL ACCUMS OR TIMING.

PC

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

TEMPS THIS MORNING ARE NOT AS COLD AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT THUS WIND
CHILL TEMPS ARE SLIGHTLY WARMER AS WELL. THE WIND CHILLS TEMPS
HOWEVER WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE CRITERIA TO MAINTAIN THE
ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM. OTHERWISE THE LARGE ARCTIC HIGH WILL SLOWLY
MOVE ACROSS SRN WI THIS AFT AND EVE. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM 9-14F.

FOR TNT...VERY COLD TEMPS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
CLEAR SKIES MUCH OF THE NIGHT. HIGH CLOUDS WILL THEN INCREASE FROM
WEST TO EAST MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING FROM ERN WY TO WRN IA. RISING TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TOWARD MORNING.

SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

SNOW IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH CURRENT FORECAST
TOTALS RANGING FROM 2.5 INCHES IN THE NORTHEAST...TO 5 INCHES FAR
SOUTHWEST. SNOW WILL LIKELY BEGIN EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS LEADING
PUSH OF WARM ADVECTION MOVES IN. SNOW WILL THEN CONTINUE AS A
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON. SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG
MODELS WITH THE STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT OF THE WAVE...BUT ENOUGH
OVERLAP BETWEEN SOLUTIONS FOR HIGH POPS. A SECOND WEAKER WAVE WILL
KEEP THE SNOW GOING INTO THE NIGHT...TAPERING OFF WEST TO EAST THE
SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT.

GENERALLY WENT WITH A 20 TO 1 SNOW TO LIQUID RATIO FOR THIS SYSTEM
GIVEN THICKNESSES AND TEMPS. ONE THING TO NOTE THOUGH IS A VERY DEEP
SATURATED LAYER WITHIN THE DENDRITE GROWTH ZONE...FROM THE SURFACE
TO AROUND 600 MB. IF SOME OF THE BETTER LIFT ENDS UP IN THIS DEEP
DGZ...MAY END UP WITH HIGHER SNOW RATIOS.

COULD SEE A LITTLE LAKE ENHANCEMENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...PARTICULARLY FROM MILWAUKEE NORTHWARD. SFC TO 850 MB MEAN
WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEAST FOR A TIME...WITH SFC TO 850 TEMP DIFFERENCE
OF 13-15C. NOT EXPECTING THIS TO ADD A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT TO
SYSTEM TOTALS...AS THE ENHANCEMENT LOOKS BORDERLINE AND FAIRLY
BRIEF.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

A WEAK WAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH MONDAY...BUT MOISTURE AND
LIFT ARE VERY LIMITED...SO WENT DRY.

YET ANOTHER WAVE IS EXPECTED TUESDAY...BUT THE BULK OF MOISTURE/LIFT
WILL REMAIN SOUTH NEAR THE SURFACE LOW. STILL...COULD SEE A FEW
SNOWFLAKES AS THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH...SO KEPT SOME LOW POPS.

SHOULD BE DRY WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG MODELS FOR TEMPS THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK...BUT AN OVERALL CONSENSUS BLEND SUGGESTS NEAR TO A BIT
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS MONDAY/TUESDAY. LOOKS COLDER THEN WEDNESDAY
BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN SOUTHERLY THURSDAY AS STRENGTHENING HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD...WHILE A STRONG LOW APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. TEMPS WILL RECOVER BACK TO A BIT ABOVE NORMAL...LIKELY GETTING
EVEN MILDER FRIDAY AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH BY EVENING.

PRECIP MAY DEVELOP THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE LOW...WITH RAIN OR
FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE IN THE EVENING...DEPENDING ON TEMPS AS THE
PRECIP ARRIVES. MODELS SUGGEST ALL RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT AS MILDER
AIR CONTINUES TO PUSH IN TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. RAIN CHANCES ARE
THEN FORECAST TO PERSIST INTO FRIDAY EVENING.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...VFR CONDITIONS AND MO CLEAR SKIES TODAY AND
THIS EVENING. HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING AFTER 06Z TNT WITH SNOW
EXPECTED FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SUNDAY. CIGS TO DROP TO AT LEAST 1
KFT WITH VSBYS TO 1 MILE ON SUN WITH THE SNOW.

MARINE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 9 AM. THE BRISK NWLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
THE WAVES WILL FALL BELOW 4 FEET WITH HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY
COMING TO AN END BY 9 AM.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...GEHRING
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DDV




000
FXUS63 KMKX 131613
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1013 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...VFR SKC CONTINUES WITH HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS. 700 MILLIBAR RH ON THE
INCREASE BUT NOT UNTIL AFTER 06Z. IN FACT...MODELS KEEP MUCH OF
NE CWA LARGELY CLOUD FREE FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. SFC RIDGE AXIS
POSITIONED ACROSS FAR ERN WI AT 06Z AND THEN INTO THE OH VLY LATER
IN THE NIGHT. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SPREADING ACROSS SRN
WI SUNDAY MORNING IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING LLVL WAA AND APPCHNG
SHORTWAVE. CONSIDERABLE LOW AND MID LEVEL DRY AIR PER BUFKIT IS
PROGGD TO SATURATE RAPIDLY IN A TOP/DOWN FASHION DURING THE
MORNING AS VERTICAL MOTION FIELD RAMPS UP WITHIN A DEEP DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE. HARD TO ARGUE WITH THE TRENDS IN MOS WITH CIGS/VSBYS
SHOWING A LOWERING TREND TO IFR LEVELS. ATTM EXPECTING NO MAJOR
SNOWFALL ACCUMS OR TIMING.

PC

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

TEMPS THIS MORNING ARE NOT AS COLD AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT THUS WIND
CHILL TEMPS ARE SLIGHTLY WARMER AS WELL. THE WIND CHILLS TEMPS
HOWEVER WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE CRITERIA TO MAINTAIN THE
ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM. OTHERWISE THE LARGE ARCTIC HIGH WILL SLOWLY
MOVE ACROSS SRN WI THIS AFT AND EVE. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM 9-14F.

FOR TNT...VERY COLD TEMPS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
CLEAR SKIES MUCH OF THE NIGHT. HIGH CLOUDS WILL THEN INCREASE FROM
WEST TO EAST MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING FROM ERN WY TO WRN IA. RISING TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TOWARD MORNING.

SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

SNOW IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH CURRENT FORECAST
TOTALS RANGING FROM 2.5 INCHES IN THE NORTHEAST...TO 5 INCHES FAR
SOUTHWEST. SNOW WILL LIKELY BEGIN EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS LEADING
PUSH OF WARM ADVECTION MOVES IN. SNOW WILL THEN CONTINUE AS A
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON. SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG
MODELS WITH THE STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT OF THE WAVE...BUT ENOUGH
OVERLAP BETWEEN SOLUTIONS FOR HIGH POPS. A SECOND WEAKER WAVE WILL
KEEP THE SNOW GOING INTO THE NIGHT...TAPERING OFF WEST TO EAST THE
SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT.

GENERALLY WENT WITH A 20 TO 1 SNOW TO LIQUID RATIO FOR THIS SYSTEM
GIVEN THICKNESSES AND TEMPS. ONE THING TO NOTE THOUGH IS A VERY DEEP
SATURATED LAYER WITHIN THE DENDRITE GROWTH ZONE...FROM THE SURFACE
TO AROUND 600 MB. IF SOME OF THE BETTER LIFT ENDS UP IN THIS DEEP
DGZ...MAY END UP WITH HIGHER SNOW RATIOS.

COULD SEE A LITTLE LAKE ENHANCEMENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...PARTICULARLY FROM MILWAUKEE NORTHWARD. SFC TO 850 MB MEAN
WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEAST FOR A TIME...WITH SFC TO 850 TEMP DIFFERENCE
OF 13-15C. NOT EXPECTING THIS TO ADD A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT TO
SYSTEM TOTALS...AS THE ENHANCEMENT LOOKS BORDERLINE AND FAIRLY
BRIEF.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

A WEAK WAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH MONDAY...BUT MOISTURE AND
LIFT ARE VERY LIMITED...SO WENT DRY.

YET ANOTHER WAVE IS EXPECTED TUESDAY...BUT THE BULK OF MOISTURE/LIFT
WILL REMAIN SOUTH NEAR THE SURFACE LOW. STILL...COULD SEE A FEW
SNOWFLAKES AS THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH...SO KEPT SOME LOW POPS.

SHOULD BE DRY WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG MODELS FOR TEMPS THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK...BUT AN OVERALL CONSENSUS BLEND SUGGESTS NEAR TO A BIT
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS MONDAY/TUESDAY. LOOKS COLDER THEN WEDNESDAY
BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN SOUTHERLY THURSDAY AS STRENGTHENING HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD...WHILE A STRONG LOW APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. TEMPS WILL RECOVER BACK TO A BIT ABOVE NORMAL...LIKELY GETTING
EVEN MILDER FRIDAY AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH BY EVENING.

PRECIP MAY DEVELOP THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE LOW...WITH RAIN OR
FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE IN THE EVENING...DEPENDING ON TEMPS AS THE
PRECIP ARRIVES. MODELS SUGGEST ALL RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT AS MILDER
AIR CONTINUES TO PUSH IN TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. RAIN CHANCES ARE
THEN FORECAST TO PERSIST INTO FRIDAY EVENING.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...VFR CONDITIONS AND MO CLEAR SKIES TODAY AND
THIS EVENING. HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING AFTER 06Z TNT WITH SNOW
EXPECTED FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SUNDAY. CIGS TO DROP TO AT LEAST 1
KFT WITH VSBYS TO 1 MILE ON SUN WITH THE SNOW.

MARINE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 9 AM. THE BRISK NWLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
THE WAVES WILL FALL BELOW 4 FEET WITH HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY
COMING TO AN END BY 9 AM.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...GEHRING
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DDV





000
FXUS63 KMKX 131613
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1013 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...VFR SKC CONTINUES WITH HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS. 700 MILLIBAR RH ON THE
INCREASE BUT NOT UNTIL AFTER 06Z. IN FACT...MODELS KEEP MUCH OF
NE CWA LARGELY CLOUD FREE FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. SFC RIDGE AXIS
POSITIONED ACROSS FAR ERN WI AT 06Z AND THEN INTO THE OH VLY LATER
IN THE NIGHT. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SPREADING ACROSS SRN
WI SUNDAY MORNING IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING LLVL WAA AND APPCHNG
SHORTWAVE. CONSIDERABLE LOW AND MID LEVEL DRY AIR PER BUFKIT IS
PROGGD TO SATURATE RAPIDLY IN A TOP/DOWN FASHION DURING THE
MORNING AS VERTICAL MOTION FIELD RAMPS UP WITHIN A DEEP DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE. HARD TO ARGUE WITH THE TRENDS IN MOS WITH CIGS/VSBYS
SHOWING A LOWERING TREND TO IFR LEVELS. ATTM EXPECTING NO MAJOR
SNOWFALL ACCUMS OR TIMING.

PC

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

TEMPS THIS MORNING ARE NOT AS COLD AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT THUS WIND
CHILL TEMPS ARE SLIGHTLY WARMER AS WELL. THE WIND CHILLS TEMPS
HOWEVER WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE CRITERIA TO MAINTAIN THE
ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM. OTHERWISE THE LARGE ARCTIC HIGH WILL SLOWLY
MOVE ACROSS SRN WI THIS AFT AND EVE. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM 9-14F.

FOR TNT...VERY COLD TEMPS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
CLEAR SKIES MUCH OF THE NIGHT. HIGH CLOUDS WILL THEN INCREASE FROM
WEST TO EAST MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING FROM ERN WY TO WRN IA. RISING TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TOWARD MORNING.

SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

SNOW IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH CURRENT FORECAST
TOTALS RANGING FROM 2.5 INCHES IN THE NORTHEAST...TO 5 INCHES FAR
SOUTHWEST. SNOW WILL LIKELY BEGIN EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS LEADING
PUSH OF WARM ADVECTION MOVES IN. SNOW WILL THEN CONTINUE AS A
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON. SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG
MODELS WITH THE STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT OF THE WAVE...BUT ENOUGH
OVERLAP BETWEEN SOLUTIONS FOR HIGH POPS. A SECOND WEAKER WAVE WILL
KEEP THE SNOW GOING INTO THE NIGHT...TAPERING OFF WEST TO EAST THE
SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT.

GENERALLY WENT WITH A 20 TO 1 SNOW TO LIQUID RATIO FOR THIS SYSTEM
GIVEN THICKNESSES AND TEMPS. ONE THING TO NOTE THOUGH IS A VERY DEEP
SATURATED LAYER WITHIN THE DENDRITE GROWTH ZONE...FROM THE SURFACE
TO AROUND 600 MB. IF SOME OF THE BETTER LIFT ENDS UP IN THIS DEEP
DGZ...MAY END UP WITH HIGHER SNOW RATIOS.

COULD SEE A LITTLE LAKE ENHANCEMENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...PARTICULARLY FROM MILWAUKEE NORTHWARD. SFC TO 850 MB MEAN
WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEAST FOR A TIME...WITH SFC TO 850 TEMP DIFFERENCE
OF 13-15C. NOT EXPECTING THIS TO ADD A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT TO
SYSTEM TOTALS...AS THE ENHANCEMENT LOOKS BORDERLINE AND FAIRLY
BRIEF.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

A WEAK WAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH MONDAY...BUT MOISTURE AND
LIFT ARE VERY LIMITED...SO WENT DRY.

YET ANOTHER WAVE IS EXPECTED TUESDAY...BUT THE BULK OF MOISTURE/LIFT
WILL REMAIN SOUTH NEAR THE SURFACE LOW. STILL...COULD SEE A FEW
SNOWFLAKES AS THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH...SO KEPT SOME LOW POPS.

SHOULD BE DRY WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG MODELS FOR TEMPS THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK...BUT AN OVERALL CONSENSUS BLEND SUGGESTS NEAR TO A BIT
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS MONDAY/TUESDAY. LOOKS COLDER THEN WEDNESDAY
BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN SOUTHERLY THURSDAY AS STRENGTHENING HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD...WHILE A STRONG LOW APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. TEMPS WILL RECOVER BACK TO A BIT ABOVE NORMAL...LIKELY GETTING
EVEN MILDER FRIDAY AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH BY EVENING.

PRECIP MAY DEVELOP THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE LOW...WITH RAIN OR
FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE IN THE EVENING...DEPENDING ON TEMPS AS THE
PRECIP ARRIVES. MODELS SUGGEST ALL RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT AS MILDER
AIR CONTINUES TO PUSH IN TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. RAIN CHANCES ARE
THEN FORECAST TO PERSIST INTO FRIDAY EVENING.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...VFR CONDITIONS AND MO CLEAR SKIES TODAY AND
THIS EVENING. HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING AFTER 06Z TNT WITH SNOW
EXPECTED FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SUNDAY. CIGS TO DROP TO AT LEAST 1
KFT WITH VSBYS TO 1 MILE ON SUN WITH THE SNOW.

MARINE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 9 AM. THE BRISK NWLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
THE WAVES WILL FALL BELOW 4 FEET WITH HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY
COMING TO AN END BY 9 AM.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...GEHRING
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DDV





000
FXUS63 KMKX 130949
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
349 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

TEMPS THIS MORNING ARE NOT AS COLD AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT THUS WIND
CHILL TEMPS ARE SLIGHTLY WARMER AS WELL. THE WIND CHILLS TEMPS
HOWEVER WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE CRITERIA TO MAINTAIN THE
ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM. OTHERWISE THE LARGE ARCTIC HIGH WILL SLOWLY
MOVE ACROSS SRN WI THIS AFT AND EVE. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM 9-14F.

FOR TNT...VERY COLD TEMPS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
CLEAR SKIES MUCH OF THE NIGHT. HIGH CLOUDS WILL THEN INCREASE FROM
WEST TO EAST MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING FROM ERN WY TO WRN IA. RISING TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TOWARD MORNING.

.SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

SNOW IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH CURRENT FORECAST
TOTALS RANGING FROM 2.5 INCHES IN THE NORTHEAST...TO 5 INCHES FAR
SOUTHWEST. SNOW WILL LIKELY BEGIN EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS LEADING
PUSH OF WARM ADVECTION MOVES IN. SNOW WILL THEN CONTINUE AS A
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON. SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG
MODELS WITH THE STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT OF THE WAVE...BUT ENOUGH
OVERLAP BETWEEN SOLUTIONS FOR HIGH POPS. A SECOND WEAKER WAVE WILL
KEEP THE SNOW GOING INTO THE NIGHT...TAPERING OFF WEST TO EAST THE
SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT.

GENERALLY WENT WITH A 20 TO 1 SNOW TO LIQUID RATIO FOR THIS SYSTEM
GIVEN THICKNESSES AND TEMPS. ONE THING TO NOTE THOUGH IS A VERY DEEP
SATURATED LAYER WITHIN THE DENDRITE GROWTH ZONE...FROM THE SURFACE
TO AROUND 600 MB. IF SOME OF THE BETTER LIFT ENDS UP IN THIS DEEP
DGZ...MAY END UP WITH HIGHER SNOW RATIOS.

COULD SEE A LITTLE LAKE ENHANCEMENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...PARTICULARLY FROM MILWAUKEE NORTHWARD. SFC TO 850 MB MEAN
WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEAST FOR A TIME...WITH SFC TO 850 TEMP DIFFERENCE
OF 13-15C. NOT EXPECTING THIS TO ADD A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT TO
SYSTEM TOTALS...AS THE ENHANCEMENT LOOKS BORDERLINE AND FAIRLY
BRIEF.

.MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

A WEAK WAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH MONDAY...BUT MOISTURE AND
LIFT ARE VERY LIMITED...SO WENT DRY.

YET ANOTHER WAVE IS EXPECTED TUESDAY...BUT THE BULK OF MOISTURE/LIFT
WILL REMAIN SOUTH NEAR THE SURFACE LOW. STILL...COULD SEE A FEW
SNOWFLAKES AS THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH...SO KEPT SOME LOW POPS.

SHOULD BE DRY WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG MODELS FOR TEMPS THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK...BUT AN OVERALL CONSENSUS BLEND SUGGESTS NEAR TO A BIT
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS MONDAY/TUESDAY. LOOKS COLDER THEN WEDNESDAY
BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH.

.THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN SOUTHERLY THURSDAY AS STRENGTHENING HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD...WHILE A STRONG LOW APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. TEMPS WILL RECOVER BACK TO A BIT ABOVE NORMAL...LIKELY GETTING
EVEN MILDER FRIDAY AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH BY EVENING.

PRECIP MAY DEVELOP THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE LOW...WITH RAIN OR
FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE IN THE EVENING...DEPENDING ON TEMPS AS THE
PRECIP ARRIVES. MODELS SUGGEST ALL RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT AS MILDER
AIR CONTINUES TO PUSH IN TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. RAIN CHANCES ARE
THEN FORECAST TO PERSIST INTO FRIDAY EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...VFR CONDITIONS AND MO CLEAR SKIES TODAY AND
THIS EVENING. HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING AFTER 06Z TNT WITH SNOW
EXPECTED FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SUNDAY. CIGS TO DROP TO AT LEAST 1
KFT WITH VSBYS TO 1 MILE ON SUN WITH THE SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 9 AM. THE BRISK NWLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
THE WAVES WILL FALL BELOW 4 FEET WITH HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY
COMING TO AN END BY 9 AM.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR WIZ046-047-
     051-052-056>060-062>072.

LM...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR
     LMZ643>646.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...GEHRING
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DDV





000
FXUS63 KMKX 130930
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
330 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...THIS SECTION WILL BE ADDED SHORTLY.

.SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

SNOW IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH CURRENT FORECAST
TOTALS RANGING FROM 2.5 INCHES IN THE NORTHEAST...TO 5 INCHES FAR
SOUTHWEST. SNOW WILL LIKELY BEGIN EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS LEADING
PUSH OF WARM ADVECTION MOVES IN. SNOW WILL THEN CONTINUE AS A
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON. SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG
MODELS WITH THE STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT OF THE WAVE...BUT ENOUGH
OVERLAP BETWEEN SOLUTIONS FOR HIGH POPS. A SECOND WEAKER WAVE WILL
KEEP THE SNOW GOING INTO THE NIGHT...TAPERING OFF WEST TO EAST THE
SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT.

GENERALLY WENT WITH A 20 TO 1 SNOW TO LIQUID RATIO FOR THIS SYSTEM
GIVEN THICKNESSES AND TEMPS. ONE THING TO NOTE THOUGH IS A VERY DEEP
SATURATED LAYER WITHIN THE DENDRITE GROWTH ZONE...FROM THE SURFACE
TO AROUND 600 MB. IF SOME OF THE BETTER LIFT ENDS UP IN THIS DEEP
DGZ...MAY END UP WITH HIGHER SNOW RATIOS.

COULD SEE A LITTLE LAKE ENHANCEMENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...PARTICULARLY FROM MILWAUKEE NORTHWARD. SFC TO 850 MB MEAN
WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEAST FOR A TIME...WITH SFC TO 850 TEMP DIFFERENCE
OF 13-15C. NOT EXPECTING THIS TO ADD A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT TO
SYSTEM TOTALS...AS THE ENHANCEMENT LOOKS BORDERLINE AND FAIRLY
BRIEF.

.MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

A WEAK WAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH MONDAY...BUT MOISTURE AND
LIFT ARE VERY LIMITED...SO WENT DRY.

YET ANOTHER WAVE IS EXPECTED TUESDAY...BUT THE BULK OF MOISTURE/LIFT
WILL REMAIN SOUTH NEAR THE SURFACE LOW. STILL...COULD SEE A FEW
SNOWFLAKES AS THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH...SO KEPT SOME LOW POPS.

SHOULD BE DRY WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG MODELS FOR TEMPS THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK...BUT AN OVERALL CONSENSUS BLEND SUGGESTS NEAR TO A BIT
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS MONDAY/TUESDAY. LOOKS COLDER THEN WEDNESDAY
BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH.

.THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN SOUTHERLY THURSDAY AS STRENGTHENING HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD...WHILE A STRONG LOW APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. TEMPS WILL RECOVER BACK TO A BIT ABOVE NORMAL...LIKELY GETTING
EVEN MILDER FRIDAY AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH BY EVENING.

PRECIP MAY DEVELOP THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE LOW...WITH RAIN OR
FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE IN THE EVENING...DEPENDING ON TEMPS AS THE
PRECIP ARRIVES. MODELS SUGGEST ALL RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT AS MILDER
AIR CONTINUES TO PUSH IN TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. RAIN CHANCES ARE
THEN FORECAST TO PERSIST INTO FRIDAY EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/ AND MARINE...THESE SECTIONS WILL BE ADDED
SHORTLY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR WIZ046-047-
     051-052-056>060-062>072.

LM...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR
     LMZ643>646.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...GEHRING
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DDV





000
FXUS63 KMKX 130930
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
330 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...THIS SECTION WILL BE ADDED SHORTLY.

.SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

SNOW IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH CURRENT FORECAST
TOTALS RANGING FROM 2.5 INCHES IN THE NORTHEAST...TO 5 INCHES FAR
SOUTHWEST. SNOW WILL LIKELY BEGIN EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS LEADING
PUSH OF WARM ADVECTION MOVES IN. SNOW WILL THEN CONTINUE AS A
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON. SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG
MODELS WITH THE STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT OF THE WAVE...BUT ENOUGH
OVERLAP BETWEEN SOLUTIONS FOR HIGH POPS. A SECOND WEAKER WAVE WILL
KEEP THE SNOW GOING INTO THE NIGHT...TAPERING OFF WEST TO EAST THE
SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT.

GENERALLY WENT WITH A 20 TO 1 SNOW TO LIQUID RATIO FOR THIS SYSTEM
GIVEN THICKNESSES AND TEMPS. ONE THING TO NOTE THOUGH IS A VERY DEEP
SATURATED LAYER WITHIN THE DENDRITE GROWTH ZONE...FROM THE SURFACE
TO AROUND 600 MB. IF SOME OF THE BETTER LIFT ENDS UP IN THIS DEEP
DGZ...MAY END UP WITH HIGHER SNOW RATIOS.

COULD SEE A LITTLE LAKE ENHANCEMENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...PARTICULARLY FROM MILWAUKEE NORTHWARD. SFC TO 850 MB MEAN
WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEAST FOR A TIME...WITH SFC TO 850 TEMP DIFFERENCE
OF 13-15C. NOT EXPECTING THIS TO ADD A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT TO
SYSTEM TOTALS...AS THE ENHANCEMENT LOOKS BORDERLINE AND FAIRLY
BRIEF.

.MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

A WEAK WAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH MONDAY...BUT MOISTURE AND
LIFT ARE VERY LIMITED...SO WENT DRY.

YET ANOTHER WAVE IS EXPECTED TUESDAY...BUT THE BULK OF MOISTURE/LIFT
WILL REMAIN SOUTH NEAR THE SURFACE LOW. STILL...COULD SEE A FEW
SNOWFLAKES AS THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH...SO KEPT SOME LOW POPS.

SHOULD BE DRY WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG MODELS FOR TEMPS THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK...BUT AN OVERALL CONSENSUS BLEND SUGGESTS NEAR TO A BIT
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS MONDAY/TUESDAY. LOOKS COLDER THEN WEDNESDAY
BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH.

.THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN SOUTHERLY THURSDAY AS STRENGTHENING HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD...WHILE A STRONG LOW APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. TEMPS WILL RECOVER BACK TO A BIT ABOVE NORMAL...LIKELY GETTING
EVEN MILDER FRIDAY AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH BY EVENING.

PRECIP MAY DEVELOP THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE LOW...WITH RAIN OR
FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE IN THE EVENING...DEPENDING ON TEMPS AS THE
PRECIP ARRIVES. MODELS SUGGEST ALL RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT AS MILDER
AIR CONTINUES TO PUSH IN TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. RAIN CHANCES ARE
THEN FORECAST TO PERSIST INTO FRIDAY EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/ AND MARINE...THESE SECTIONS WILL BE ADDED
SHORTLY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR WIZ046-047-
     051-052-056>060-062>072.

LM...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR
     LMZ643>646.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...GEHRING
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DDV





000
FXUS63 KMKX 130318
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
918 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.UPDATE...

WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT.

ADDED FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR ICE FREE AREAS. NOT SURE OF THE
ICE EXTENT DUE TO THE BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS. HOWEVER HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY WOULD OCCUR IN ICE FREE AREAS...ESPECIALLY TOWARD
OPEN WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...

NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 KTS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS SOUTHWEST WI LATE TONIGHT
REDUCING THE WINDS EARLY MORNING AND KEEPING CLEAR SKIES INTO SATURDAY.

&&

MARINE...

THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. EXPECT WINDS GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KTS. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS SATURDAY
MORNING. NOT SURE OF ICE EXTENT DUE TO THE BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS SO
ADDED HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR ICE FREE AREAS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS MN AND IA TONIGHT AND MOVE
SOUTHWEST OF WI ON SATURDAY. THE STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL DIMINISH
LATE TONIGHT BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE NIGHT. THERE
IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AS SKIES WILL BE
CLEAR BUT THE WIND WILL PROMOTE MIXING AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.
THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT AMONGST GUIDANCE INDICATING 925 MB TEMPS
BOTTOMMING OUT AROUND -20 OR -21 C TONIGHT WHICH TRANSLATES TO
AROUND -2 TO -10 F. STILL LOOKS LIKE WE ARE ON TRACK REACHING LOW
END WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING.

SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY SLIDE OFF TO THE ESE SATURDAY
EVENING...ALLOWING A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW TO KICK IN AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE FROM THE NORTHWEST. CLOUDS
SHOULD BEGIN SPREADING INTO THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA BY
MIDNIGHT...REACHING THE EAST BY MORNING. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
TRIGGER WARM AIR ADVECTION...THUS MIN TEMPS SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD
OCCUR DURING THE EVENING WITH STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING TEMPS AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

HAVE MADE ONLY INCREMENTAL CHANGES TO POPS AND SNOW AMOUNTS FOR
THE SNOW EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
MORNING. THERE IS DEEP...BUT NOT IMPRESSIVE WARM AIR ADVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH A SIMILARLY DEEP TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. THE BEST/FOCUSED WAA IS SOUTH OF OUR AREA.
ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS SHOWS QUICK SATURATION FROM WEST TO EAST WITH
THE DENDRITE REGION STILL LOOKING VERY DEEP DURING THE EARLY HOURS
OF THE SNOW EVENT. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT IS GENTLE. WARMER AIR
FLOWING INTO THE LOWER LEVELS WILL SHORTEN THAT DENDRITE GROWTH
ZONE UP WITH TIME SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FAVORABLE DELTA T/S...ABOUT
17...OVER THE LAKE COULD HELP MOISTEN UP THE LOW LEVELS ACROSS
THE EAST /I.E. LAKE ENHANCEMENT/ AHEAD OF THE WAVE APPROACHING.
THUS...WE MAY NOT SEE TOO MUCH LOST TO THE USUAL EARLY EVAPORATION
PROCESS IN THE LOW LEVELS. THE DEEP TROUGH AND WARM ADVECTION
CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...SO WILL BUMP UP POPS FROM WHAT WE
HAD. SNOW ACCUMS WERE TWEAKED BUT AMOUNTS STILL RANGE FROM ABOUT
2.5 TO 4 INCHES. HIGHEST WEST...LOWER NORTHEAST. WE COULD SEE
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS GIVEN THE HIGH SNOW/LIQUID RATIOS EXPECTED.
THIS WILL BE A VERY DRY SNOW.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

WE/LL PROBABLY HAVE SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES LINGERING FOR A
TIME ON MONDAY...BUT THE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING OUT WITH SHORT WAVE
RIDGING MOVING IN. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO FREEZING...SO A
BIT MILDER THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

A QUICK CLIPPER MAY HIT US ON TUESDAY. THERE ARE DIFFERING
OPINIONS BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE ECMWF...WITH THE GFS SHOWING A
MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED LOW THAN THE ECMWF. THIS SHOULD REMAIN MORE OF
AN OPEN TROUGH...SO WILL CARRY SMALL POPS OF LIGHT SNOW
TUESDAY...TAPERING OFF TUESDAY EVENING.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...SLIDING TO THE EAST BY
THURSDAY. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE COLDER UNDER THE HIGH WITH TEMPS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 20S. BUT...SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE HIGH ON THURSDAY SHOULD PUSH HIGHS BACK INTO THE LOWER 30S.
WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION ON THURSDAY...WE COULD SEE A SMALL
CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIP. FOR NOW IT LOOKS LIKE LIGHT SNOW...BUT THE
THERMAL STRUCTURE WILL BE GETTING MORE IFFY AND PRECIP TYPE COULD
BECOME QUESTIONABLE. EITHER WAY...AMOUNTS/POPS LOOK VERY LOW. SO
IMPACT IS MINIMAL.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING
WITH THE HIGHEST GUSTS IN FAR SOUTHEAST WI. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE
ACROSS SOUTHWEST WI LATE TONIGHT REDUCING THE WINDS EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING AND BRINGING CLEAR SKIES THROUGH SATURDAY.

MARINE... THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS EVENING EXPECT WINDS GUSTS OF 25 TO 30
KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 35 KTS POSSIBLE TOWARD THE OPEN WATERS.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
SATURDAY MORNING. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE CANCELLED
A LITTLE EARLY SINCE THE LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS WINDS DIMINISHING A
LITTLE QUICKER THAN PREVIOUSLY NOTED.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SATURDAY FOR WIZ046-047-051-
     052-056>060-062>072.

LM...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST SATURDAY FOR
     LMZ643>646.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SATURDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HENTZ
TONIGHT/SATURDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MARQUARDT
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...DAVIS




000
FXUS63 KMKX 130318
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
918 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.UPDATE...

WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT.

ADDED FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR ICE FREE AREAS. NOT SURE OF THE
ICE EXTENT DUE TO THE BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS. HOWEVER HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY WOULD OCCUR IN ICE FREE AREAS...ESPECIALLY TOWARD
OPEN WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...

NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 KTS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS SOUTHWEST WI LATE TONIGHT
REDUCING THE WINDS EARLY MORNING AND KEEPING CLEAR SKIES INTO SATURDAY.

&&

MARINE...

THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. EXPECT WINDS GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KTS. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS SATURDAY
MORNING. NOT SURE OF ICE EXTENT DUE TO THE BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS SO
ADDED HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR ICE FREE AREAS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS MN AND IA TONIGHT AND MOVE
SOUTHWEST OF WI ON SATURDAY. THE STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL DIMINISH
LATE TONIGHT BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE NIGHT. THERE
IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AS SKIES WILL BE
CLEAR BUT THE WIND WILL PROMOTE MIXING AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.
THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT AMONGST GUIDANCE INDICATING 925 MB TEMPS
BOTTOMMING OUT AROUND -20 OR -21 C TONIGHT WHICH TRANSLATES TO
AROUND -2 TO -10 F. STILL LOOKS LIKE WE ARE ON TRACK REACHING LOW
END WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING.

SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY SLIDE OFF TO THE ESE SATURDAY
EVENING...ALLOWING A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW TO KICK IN AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE FROM THE NORTHWEST. CLOUDS
SHOULD BEGIN SPREADING INTO THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA BY
MIDNIGHT...REACHING THE EAST BY MORNING. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
TRIGGER WARM AIR ADVECTION...THUS MIN TEMPS SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD
OCCUR DURING THE EVENING WITH STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING TEMPS AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

HAVE MADE ONLY INCREMENTAL CHANGES TO POPS AND SNOW AMOUNTS FOR
THE SNOW EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
MORNING. THERE IS DEEP...BUT NOT IMPRESSIVE WARM AIR ADVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH A SIMILARLY DEEP TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. THE BEST/FOCUSED WAA IS SOUTH OF OUR AREA.
ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS SHOWS QUICK SATURATION FROM WEST TO EAST WITH
THE DENDRITE REGION STILL LOOKING VERY DEEP DURING THE EARLY HOURS
OF THE SNOW EVENT. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT IS GENTLE. WARMER AIR
FLOWING INTO THE LOWER LEVELS WILL SHORTEN THAT DENDRITE GROWTH
ZONE UP WITH TIME SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FAVORABLE DELTA T/S...ABOUT
17...OVER THE LAKE COULD HELP MOISTEN UP THE LOW LEVELS ACROSS
THE EAST /I.E. LAKE ENHANCEMENT/ AHEAD OF THE WAVE APPROACHING.
THUS...WE MAY NOT SEE TOO MUCH LOST TO THE USUAL EARLY EVAPORATION
PROCESS IN THE LOW LEVELS. THE DEEP TROUGH AND WARM ADVECTION
CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...SO WILL BUMP UP POPS FROM WHAT WE
HAD. SNOW ACCUMS WERE TWEAKED BUT AMOUNTS STILL RANGE FROM ABOUT
2.5 TO 4 INCHES. HIGHEST WEST...LOWER NORTHEAST. WE COULD SEE
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS GIVEN THE HIGH SNOW/LIQUID RATIOS EXPECTED.
THIS WILL BE A VERY DRY SNOW.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

WE/LL PROBABLY HAVE SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES LINGERING FOR A
TIME ON MONDAY...BUT THE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING OUT WITH SHORT WAVE
RIDGING MOVING IN. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO FREEZING...SO A
BIT MILDER THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

A QUICK CLIPPER MAY HIT US ON TUESDAY. THERE ARE DIFFERING
OPINIONS BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE ECMWF...WITH THE GFS SHOWING A
MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED LOW THAN THE ECMWF. THIS SHOULD REMAIN MORE OF
AN OPEN TROUGH...SO WILL CARRY SMALL POPS OF LIGHT SNOW
TUESDAY...TAPERING OFF TUESDAY EVENING.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...SLIDING TO THE EAST BY
THURSDAY. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE COLDER UNDER THE HIGH WITH TEMPS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 20S. BUT...SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE HIGH ON THURSDAY SHOULD PUSH HIGHS BACK INTO THE LOWER 30S.
WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION ON THURSDAY...WE COULD SEE A SMALL
CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIP. FOR NOW IT LOOKS LIKE LIGHT SNOW...BUT THE
THERMAL STRUCTURE WILL BE GETTING MORE IFFY AND PRECIP TYPE COULD
BECOME QUESTIONABLE. EITHER WAY...AMOUNTS/POPS LOOK VERY LOW. SO
IMPACT IS MINIMAL.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING
WITH THE HIGHEST GUSTS IN FAR SOUTHEAST WI. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE
ACROSS SOUTHWEST WI LATE TONIGHT REDUCING THE WINDS EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING AND BRINGING CLEAR SKIES THROUGH SATURDAY.

MARINE... THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS EVENING EXPECT WINDS GUSTS OF 25 TO 30
KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 35 KTS POSSIBLE TOWARD THE OPEN WATERS.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
SATURDAY MORNING. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE CANCELLED
A LITTLE EARLY SINCE THE LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS WINDS DIMINISHING A
LITTLE QUICKER THAN PREVIOUSLY NOTED.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SATURDAY FOR WIZ046-047-051-
     052-056>060-062>072.

LM...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST SATURDAY FOR
     LMZ643>646.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SATURDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HENTZ
TONIGHT/SATURDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MARQUARDT
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...DAVIS





000
FXUS63 KMKX 130318
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
918 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.UPDATE...

WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT.

ADDED FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR ICE FREE AREAS. NOT SURE OF THE
ICE EXTENT DUE TO THE BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS. HOWEVER HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY WOULD OCCUR IN ICE FREE AREAS...ESPECIALLY TOWARD
OPEN WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...

NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 KTS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS SOUTHWEST WI LATE TONIGHT
REDUCING THE WINDS EARLY MORNING AND KEEPING CLEAR SKIES INTO SATURDAY.

&&

MARINE...

THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. EXPECT WINDS GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KTS. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS SATURDAY
MORNING. NOT SURE OF ICE EXTENT DUE TO THE BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS SO
ADDED HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR ICE FREE AREAS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS MN AND IA TONIGHT AND MOVE
SOUTHWEST OF WI ON SATURDAY. THE STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL DIMINISH
LATE TONIGHT BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE NIGHT. THERE
IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AS SKIES WILL BE
CLEAR BUT THE WIND WILL PROMOTE MIXING AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.
THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT AMONGST GUIDANCE INDICATING 925 MB TEMPS
BOTTOMMING OUT AROUND -20 OR -21 C TONIGHT WHICH TRANSLATES TO
AROUND -2 TO -10 F. STILL LOOKS LIKE WE ARE ON TRACK REACHING LOW
END WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING.

SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY SLIDE OFF TO THE ESE SATURDAY
EVENING...ALLOWING A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW TO KICK IN AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE FROM THE NORTHWEST. CLOUDS
SHOULD BEGIN SPREADING INTO THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA BY
MIDNIGHT...REACHING THE EAST BY MORNING. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
TRIGGER WARM AIR ADVECTION...THUS MIN TEMPS SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD
OCCUR DURING THE EVENING WITH STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING TEMPS AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

HAVE MADE ONLY INCREMENTAL CHANGES TO POPS AND SNOW AMOUNTS FOR
THE SNOW EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
MORNING. THERE IS DEEP...BUT NOT IMPRESSIVE WARM AIR ADVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH A SIMILARLY DEEP TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. THE BEST/FOCUSED WAA IS SOUTH OF OUR AREA.
ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS SHOWS QUICK SATURATION FROM WEST TO EAST WITH
THE DENDRITE REGION STILL LOOKING VERY DEEP DURING THE EARLY HOURS
OF THE SNOW EVENT. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT IS GENTLE. WARMER AIR
FLOWING INTO THE LOWER LEVELS WILL SHORTEN THAT DENDRITE GROWTH
ZONE UP WITH TIME SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FAVORABLE DELTA T/S...ABOUT
17...OVER THE LAKE COULD HELP MOISTEN UP THE LOW LEVELS ACROSS
THE EAST /I.E. LAKE ENHANCEMENT/ AHEAD OF THE WAVE APPROACHING.
THUS...WE MAY NOT SEE TOO MUCH LOST TO THE USUAL EARLY EVAPORATION
PROCESS IN THE LOW LEVELS. THE DEEP TROUGH AND WARM ADVECTION
CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...SO WILL BUMP UP POPS FROM WHAT WE
HAD. SNOW ACCUMS WERE TWEAKED BUT AMOUNTS STILL RANGE FROM ABOUT
2.5 TO 4 INCHES. HIGHEST WEST...LOWER NORTHEAST. WE COULD SEE
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS GIVEN THE HIGH SNOW/LIQUID RATIOS EXPECTED.
THIS WILL BE A VERY DRY SNOW.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

WE/LL PROBABLY HAVE SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES LINGERING FOR A
TIME ON MONDAY...BUT THE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING OUT WITH SHORT WAVE
RIDGING MOVING IN. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO FREEZING...SO A
BIT MILDER THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

A QUICK CLIPPER MAY HIT US ON TUESDAY. THERE ARE DIFFERING
OPINIONS BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE ECMWF...WITH THE GFS SHOWING A
MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED LOW THAN THE ECMWF. THIS SHOULD REMAIN MORE OF
AN OPEN TROUGH...SO WILL CARRY SMALL POPS OF LIGHT SNOW
TUESDAY...TAPERING OFF TUESDAY EVENING.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...SLIDING TO THE EAST BY
THURSDAY. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE COLDER UNDER THE HIGH WITH TEMPS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 20S. BUT...SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE HIGH ON THURSDAY SHOULD PUSH HIGHS BACK INTO THE LOWER 30S.
WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION ON THURSDAY...WE COULD SEE A SMALL
CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIP. FOR NOW IT LOOKS LIKE LIGHT SNOW...BUT THE
THERMAL STRUCTURE WILL BE GETTING MORE IFFY AND PRECIP TYPE COULD
BECOME QUESTIONABLE. EITHER WAY...AMOUNTS/POPS LOOK VERY LOW. SO
IMPACT IS MINIMAL.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING
WITH THE HIGHEST GUSTS IN FAR SOUTHEAST WI. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE
ACROSS SOUTHWEST WI LATE TONIGHT REDUCING THE WINDS EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING AND BRINGING CLEAR SKIES THROUGH SATURDAY.

MARINE... THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS EVENING EXPECT WINDS GUSTS OF 25 TO 30
KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 35 KTS POSSIBLE TOWARD THE OPEN WATERS.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
SATURDAY MORNING. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE CANCELLED
A LITTLE EARLY SINCE THE LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS WINDS DIMINISHING A
LITTLE QUICKER THAN PREVIOUSLY NOTED.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SATURDAY FOR WIZ046-047-051-
     052-056>060-062>072.

LM...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST SATURDAY FOR
     LMZ643>646.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SATURDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HENTZ
TONIGHT/SATURDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MARQUARDT
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...DAVIS





000
FXUS63 KMKX 122120
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
320 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS MN AND IA TONIGHT AND MOVE
SOUTHWEST OF WI ON SATURDAY. THE STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL DIMINISH
LATE TONIGHT BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE NIGHT. THERE
IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AS SKIES WILL BE
CLEAR BUT THE WIND WILL PROMOTE MIXING AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.
THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT AMONGST GUIDANCE INDICATING 925 MB TEMPS
BOTTOMMING OUT AROUND -20 OR -21 C TONIGHT WHICH TRANSLATES TO
AROUND -2 TO -10 F. STILL LOOKS LIKE WE ARE ON TRACK REACHING LOW
END WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING.

SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS.

.SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY SLIDE OFF TO THE ESE SATURDAY
EVENING...ALLOWING A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW TO KICK IN AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE FROM THE NORTHWEST. CLOUDS
SHOULD BEGIN SPREADING INTO THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA BY
MIDNIGHT...REACHING THE EAST BY MORNING. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
TRIGGER WARM AIR ADVECTION...THUS MIN TEMPS SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD
OCCUR DURING THE EVENING WITH STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING TEMPS AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

HAVE MADE ONLY INCREMENTAL CHANGES TO POPS AND SNOW AMOUNTS FOR
THE SNOW EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
MORNING. THERE IS DEEP...BUT NOT IMPRESSIVE WARM AIR ADVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH A SIMILARLY DEEP TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. THE BEST/FOCUSED WAA IS SOUTH OF OUR AREA.
ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS SHOWS QUICK SATURATION FROM WEST TO EAST WITH
THE DENDRITE REGION STILL LOOKING VERY DEEP DURING THE EARLY HOURS
OF THE SNOW EVENT. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT IS GENTLE. WARMER AIR
FLOWING INTO THE LOWER LEVELS WILL SHORTEN THAT DENDRITE GROWTH
ZONE UP WITH TIME SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FAVORABLE DELTA T/S...ABOUT
17...OVER THE LAKE COULD HELP MOISTEN UP THE LOW LEVELS ACROSS
THE EAST /I.E. LAKE ENHANCEMENT/ AHEAD OF THE WAVE APPROACHING.
THUS...WE MAY NOT SEE TOO MUCH LOST TO THE USUAL EARLY EVAPORATION
PROCESS IN THE LOW LEVELS. THE DEEP TROUGH AND WARM ADVECTION
CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...SO WILL BUMP UP POPS FROM WHAT WE
HAD. SNOW ACCUMS WERE TWEAKED BUT AMOUNTS STILL RANGE FROM ABOUT
2.5 TO 4 INCHES. HIGHEST WEST...LOWER NORTHEAST. WE COULD SEE
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS GIVEN THE HIGH SNOW/LIQUID RATIOS EXPECTED.
THIS WILL BE A VERY DRY SNOW.

.MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

WE/LL PROBABLY HAVE SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES LINGERING FOR A
TIME ON MONDAY...BUT THE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING OUT WITH SHORT WAVE
RIDGING MOVING IN. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO FREEZING...SO A
BIT MILDER THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS.

.TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

A QUICK CLIPPER MAY HIT US ON TUESDAY. THERE ARE DIFFERING
OPINIONS BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE ECMWF...WITH THE GFS SHOWING A
MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED LOW THAN THE ECMWF. THIS SHOULD REMAIN MORE OF
AN OPEN TROUGH...SO WILL CARRY SMALL POPS OF LIGHT SNOW
TUESDAY...TAPERING OFF TUESDAY EVENING.

.WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...SLIDING TO THE EAST BY
THURSDAY. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE COLDER UNDER THE HIGH WITH TEMPS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 20S. BUT...SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE HIGH ON THURSDAY SHOULD PUSH HIGHS BACK INTO THE LOWER 30S.
WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION ON THURSDAY...WE COULD SEE A SMALL
CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIP. FOR NOW IT LOOKS LIKE LIGHT SNOW...BUT THE
THERMAL STRUCTURE WILL BE GETTING MORE IFFY AND PRECIP TYPE COULD
BECOME QUESTIONABLE. EITHER WAY...AMOUNTS/POPS LOOK VERY LOW. SO
IMPACT IS MINIMAL.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING
WITH THE HIGHEST GUSTS IN FAR SOUTHEAST WI. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE
ACROSS SOUTHWEST WI LATE TONIGHT REDUCING THE WINDS EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING AND BRINGING CLEAR SKIES THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE... THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS EVENING EXPECT WINDS GUSTS OF 25 TO 30
KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 35 KTS POSSIBLE TOWARD THE OPEN WATERS.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
SATURDAY MORNING. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE CANCELLED
A LITTLE EARLY SINCE THE LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS WINDS DIMINISHING A
LITTLE QUICKER THAN PREVIOUSLY NOTED.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST SATURDAY
     FOR WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SATURDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

TONIGHT/SATURDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MARQUARDT
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...DAVIS





000
FXUS63 KMKX 121622
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1022 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.UPDATE...
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN STEADY TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES DROPS THROUGH THE REGION.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING SO WIND
CHILL VALUES OF AROUND 0 THIS MORNING WILL DROP SLIGHTLY THIS
AFTERNOON. TONIGHT EXPECT WIND CHILL VALUES OF -20 TO -25.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...
BACK EDGE OF CLOUDS IS BEGINNING TO REACH SOUTHERN WI BUT COULD SEE
SCT TO BKN MVFR CEILINGS CONTINUE OR REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND COLD AIR ADVECTION. NORTHWEST
WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING WITH
THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PUSH INTO SOUTHWEST WI LATE TONIGHT REDUCING THE WINDS EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING AND BRINGING CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

THE FOCUS THIS MORNING IS ON THE FLUFFY LIGHT SNOW MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY HOW LOW THE WIND CHILLS
WILL GET TONIGHT.

CURRENTLY...A QUICK MOVING AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS TRACKING
TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION AND IS PRODUCING SOME VERY LIGHT AND
FLUFFY SNOW ACROSS SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN.  SOME LOW LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS HAS PROVIDED ENOUGH LIFT TO SATURATE THE COLUMN FROM
AROUND 900-750MB WHICH IS RIGHT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE.  UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS FROM THE MINNEAPOLIS/LA CROSSE
AREA HAVE SHOWN SOME VERY HIGH SNOW RATIOS ON THE ORDER OF 50:1 TO
90:1 WITH ABOUT A HALF INCH TO AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION.  CURRENT
RADAR/OBS SUGGEST THAT THE AREAS JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF MADISON
HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING SOMETHING SIMILAR TOWARD DAYBREAK
BEFORE THE LIFT SHIFTS SOUTH INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS AROUND 9AM.

THE FOCUS THEN GOES TO A COLD FRONT WHICH IS CURRENTLY IN THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.  THIS FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION
TODAY AND WILL BEGIN TO USHER SOME MUCH COLDER AIR IN.  THE
COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS AND COLD AIR LOOK LIKE THEY WILL PRODUCE
WIND CHILLS IN THE 20 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW ZERO RANGE OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...WHICH HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT FOR THE
PAST FEW DAYS FROM THE MODELS.  BASED ON THIS CONFIDENCE...HAVE GONE
AHEAD AND ISSUED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH 9AM
SATURDAY (ADVISORY CRITERIA IS 20 BELOW). IF THERE IS ONE POSSIBLE
HITCH IT IS THAT THE WINDS COULD KEEP TEMPERATURES UP IF THEY STAY
TOO STRONG AND PROMOTE MIXING.

SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...HIGH
AFTER A BITTERLY COLD START 1045 MILLIBAR HIGH AND SUBSIDING
INFLUENCE SHOULD RESULT IN A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. MID LEVEL
FLOW REMAINS STRONG FROM THE NORTHWEST THOUGH TRENDING MORE
ANTICYCLONIC. CORE OF LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS SRN
WI WITH 925 TEMPS AOB -20C IN THE MORNING MODIFYING ONLY INTO THE
MID OR UPPER TEENS CELSIUS DURING THE AFTERNOON. SO THE SUPERBLEND
GUID SHOWING MANY HIGHS STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE SINGLE DIGITS
CONTINUES TO LOOK GOOD.

SATURDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
EXPECTING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES DURING THE EVENING WITH SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE STATE. CONTINUED THE TREND OF A NON-
DIURNAL TEMP CURVE AS WAA INCREASES LATER IN THE NIGHT WITH
INCREASING MID DECK. CONTINUED THE SLGT CHC/CHC POPS IN OUR FAR
SW CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT AS MODELS ARE SHOWING THE LEADING WAA WING
OF LIGHT SNOW NUDGING INTO THOSE AREAS.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH
BOOSTED POPS EVEN FURTHER INTO THE CATEGORICAL RANGE WITH THE
CONSISTENT SIGNAL FORM THE MODELS OF WIDESPREAD SNOW LIKELY WITH
ARRIVING WAA AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH. GETTING SOME IMPRESSIVE VERTICAL
MOTION SIGNALS WITH COINCIDENT WAA AND DCVA. BUFKIT...ESPECIALLY
THE NAM...SHOWS DEEP DENDRITIC GROWTH POTENTIAL. CONSENSUS OF QPF
IS BETWEEN 0.10 AND 0.20 WITH COBB RATIOS ANYWHERE FROM 16-25/1 SO
GETTING SOME RESULTING SNOWFALL TOTALS THAT MAY PUSH THIS EVENT
INTO THE ADVISORY CATEGORY. SUSTAINED WAA AND YET TO ARRIVE SFC/850
TROUGH WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN SNOWFALL RIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
BROAD MID LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTS WITH LINGERING SHORTWAVE
ACTIVITY STILL POSSIBLE. THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH EXPECTED TO SHIFT
EAST THOUGH THE GFS LINGERS THIS FEATURE A BIT LONGER INTO THE
MORNING HOURS.

TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW
THE 00Z GFS LOOKS LIKE WHAT THE ECMWF WAS SHOWING LAST NIGHT WITH
A POTENT CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM RIDING SOUTHEAST WITH ABUNDANT QPF
ACROSS THE AREA. THE ECMWF IS NOW DRY WITH COLD ADVECTION AND THE
SYSTEM OF CONCERN IS PROGGD TO RIDE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY COMPLETELY MISSING WI. MEANWHILE THE
GFS SHOWS THE VORT RIDING THROUGH ERN IA WITH AN 850 LOW JUST
SOUTH OF DBQ. WILL BE GOING THE SUPERBLEND ROUTE ON POPS UNTIL A
PATTERN OF CONSENSUS AND CONSISTENCY IS REALIZED.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
GFS AND ECMWF SHOW SOME LOW LEVEL RIDGING WHICH APPEARS TO BE
SETTING UP FOR A QUIET WEDNESDAY. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A POTENTIAL
WARMUP BEGINNING THURSDAY AS 850 BAROCLINIC ZONE LIFTS NORTHEAST
THROUGH WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE ECMWF SHOWS A NW/SE ORIENTED AREA
OF LIGHT QPF ASSOCIATED WITH THE 850 BAROCLINIC ZONE ON THURSDAY.
ALL IN ALL BROAD MID LEVEL RIDGING WITH INCREASING HEIGHTS WILL BE
ADVANCING EASTWARD FROM THE PLAINS THIS PERIOD SIGNALING THE START
OF A WARMUP. THE GFS SHOWS 925 TEMPS APPCH ZERO CELSIUS IN SRN
CWA BY LATER THURSDAY WITH THE ECMWF A BIT COLDER.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...THE MAIN FOCUS AT THE TAF SITES IS WITH THE
EARLY CHANCES FOR MSN TO SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW THIS MORNING. IT
APPEARS AS THOUGH THE MAIN BAND OF SNOW IS STAYING TO THE SOUTHWEST
OF MSN...BUT THERE COULD STILL BE SOME BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS THAT
GET IN FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING. BEYOND THAT IT IS MAINLY JUST
SOME GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES GOING THROUGH THE REST
OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

MARINE...WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON ON
INTO TONIGHT WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS GUSTING UP INTO THE 25 TO
30 KT RANGE OVER THIS PERIOD. WITH THE OFF SHORE FLOW...THE HIGHEST
WAVES WILL BE OUT TOWARD THE OPEN WATERS OF THE LAKE. WINDS WILL
QUICKLY DIMINISH ON SATURDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST SATURDAY
     FOR WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SATURDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MARQUARDT
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HALBACH
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...COLLAR





000
FXUS63 KMKX 120926
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
326 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

THE FOCUS THIS MORNING IS ON THE FLUFFY LIGHT SNOW MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY HOW LOW THE WIND CHILLS
WILL GET TONIGHT.

CURRENTLY...A QUICK MOVING AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS TRACKING
TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION AND IS PRODUCING SOME VERY LIGHT AND
FLUFFY SNOW ACROSS SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN.  SOME LOW LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS HAS PROVIDED ENOUGH LIFT TO SATURATE THE COLUMN FROM
AROUND 900-750MB WHICH IS RIGHT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE.  UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS FROM THE MINNEAPOLIS/LA CROSSE
AREA HAVE SHOWN SOME VERY HIGH SNOW RATIOS ON THE ORDER OF 50:1 TO
90:1 WITH ABOUT A HALF INCH TO AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION.  CURRENT
RADAR/OBS SUGGEST THAT THE AREAS JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF MADISON
HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING SOMETHING SIMILAR TOWARD DAYBREAK
BEFORE THE LIFT SHIFTS SOUTH INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS AROUND 9AM.

THE FOCUS THEN GOES TO A COLD FRONT WHICH IS CURRENTLY IN THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.  THIS FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION
TODAY AND WILL BEGIN TO USHER SOME MUCH COLDER AIR IN.  THE
COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS AND COLD AIR LOOK LIKE THEY WILL PRODUCE
WIND CHILLS IN THE 20 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW ZERO RANGE OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...WHICH HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT FOR THE
PAST FEW DAYS FROM THE MODELS.  BASED ON THIS CONFIDENCE...HAVE GONE
AHEAD AND ISSUED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH 9AM
SATURDAY (ADVISORY CRITERIA IS 20 BELOW). IF THERE IS ONE POSSIBLE
HITCH IT IS THAT THE WINDS COULD KEEP TEMPERATURES UP IF THEY STAY
TOO STRONG AND PROMOTE MIXING.

.SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...HIGH
AFTER A BITTERLY COLD START 1045 MILLIBAR HIGH AND SUBSIDING
INFLUENCE SHOULD RESULT IN A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. MID LEVEL
FLOW REMAINS STRONG FROM THE NORTHWEST THOUGH TRENDING MORE
ANTICYCLONIC. CORE OF LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS SRN
WI WITH 925 TEMPS AOB -20C IN THE MORNING MODIFYING ONLY INTO THE
MID OR UPPER TEENS CELSIUS DURING THE AFTERNOON. SO THE SUPERBLEND
GUID SHOWING MANY HIGHS STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE SINGLE DIGITS
CONTINUES TO LOOK GOOD.

.SATURDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
EXPECTING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES DURING THE EVENING WITH SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE STATE. CONTINUED THE TREND OF A NON-
DIURNAL TEMP CURVE AS WAA INCREASES LATER IN THE NIGHT WITH
INCREASING MID DECK. CONTINUED THE SLGT CHC/CHC POPS IN OUR FAR
SW CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT AS MODELS ARE SHOWING THE LEADING WAA WING
OF LIGHT SNOW NUDGING INTO THOSE AREAS.

.SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH
BOOSTED POPS EVEN FURTHER INTO THE CATEGORICAL RANGE WITH THE
CONSISTENT SIGNAL FORM THE MODELS OF WIDESPREAD SNOW LIKELY WITH
ARRIVING WAA AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH. GETTING SOME IMPRESSIVE VERTICAL
MOTION SIGNALS WITH COINCIDENT WAA AND DCVA. BUFKIT...ESPECIALLY
THE NAM...SHOWS DEEP DENDRITIC GROWTH POTENTIAL. CONSENSUS OF QPF
IS BETWEEN 0.10 AND 0.20 WITH COBB RATIOS ANYWHERE FROM 16-25/1 SO
GETTING SOME RESULTING SNOWFALL TOTALS THAT MAY PUSH THIS EVENT
INTO THE ADVISORY CATEGORY. SUSTAINED WAA AND YET TO ARRIVE SFC/850
TROUGH WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN SNOWFALL RIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

.MONDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
BROAD MID LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTS WITH LINGERING SHORTWAVE
ACTIVITY STILL POSSIBLE. THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH EXPECTED TO SHIFT
EAST THOUGH THE GFS LINGERS THIS FEATURE A BIT LONGER INTO THE
MORNING HOURS.

.TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW
THE 00Z GFS LOOKS LIKE WHAT THE ECMWF WAS SHOWING LAST NIGHT WITH
A POTENT CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM RIDING SOUTHEAST WITH ABUNDANT QPF
ACROSS THE AREA. THE ECMWF IS NOW DRY WITH COLD ADVECTION AND THE
SYSTEM OF CONCERN IS PROGGD TO RIDE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY COMPLETELY MISSING WI. MEANWHILE THE
GFS SHOWS THE VORT RIDING THROUGH ERN IA WITH AN 850 LOW JUST
SOUTH OF DBQ. WILL BE GOING THE SUPERBLEND ROUTE ON POPS UNTIL A
PATTERN OF CONSENSUS AND CONSISTENCY IS REALIZED.

.WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
GFS AND ECMWF SHOW SOME LOW LEVEL RIDGING WHICH APPEARS TO BE
SETTING UP FOR A QUIET WEDNESDAY. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A POTENTIAL
WARMUP BEGINNING THURSDAY AS 850 BAROCLINIC ZONE LIFTS NORTHEAST
THROUGH WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE ECMWF SHOWS A NW/SE ORIENTED AREA
OF LIGHT QPF ASSOCIATED WITH THE 850 BAROCLINIC ZONE ON THURSDAY.
ALL IN ALL BROAD MID LEVEL RIDGING WITH INCREASING HEIGHTS WILL BE
ADVANCING EASTWARD FROM THE PLAINS THIS PERIOD SIGNALING THE START
OF A WARMUP. THE GFS SHOWS 925 TEMPS APPCH ZERO CELSIUS IN SRN
CWA BY LATER THURSDAY WITH THE ECMWF A BIT COLDER.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...THE MAIN FOCUS AT THE TAF SITES IS WITH THE
EARLY CHANCES FOR MSN TO SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW THIS MORNING. IT
APPEARS AS THOUGH THE MAIN BAND OF SNOW IS STAYING TO THE SOUTHWEST
OF MSN...BUT THERE COULD STILL BE SOME BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS THAT
GET IN FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING. BEYOND THAT IT IS MAINLY JUST
SOME GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES GOING THROUGH THE REST
OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON ON
INTO TONIGHT WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS GUSTING UP INTO THE 25 TO
30 KT RANGE OVER THIS PERIOD. WITH THE OFF SHORE FLOW...THE HIGHEST
WAVES WILL BE OUT TOWARD THE OPEN WATERS OF THE LAKE. WINDS WILL
QUICKLY DIMINISH ON SATURDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST SATURDAY
     FOR WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 AM CST SATURDAY FOR
     LMZ643>646.

&&

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HALBACH
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...COLLAR





000
FXUS63 KMKX 120926
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
326 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

THE FOCUS THIS MORNING IS ON THE FLUFFY LIGHT SNOW MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY HOW LOW THE WIND CHILLS
WILL GET TONIGHT.

CURRENTLY...A QUICK MOVING AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS TRACKING
TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION AND IS PRODUCING SOME VERY LIGHT AND
FLUFFY SNOW ACROSS SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN.  SOME LOW LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS HAS PROVIDED ENOUGH LIFT TO SATURATE THE COLUMN FROM
AROUND 900-750MB WHICH IS RIGHT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE.  UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS FROM THE MINNEAPOLIS/LA CROSSE
AREA HAVE SHOWN SOME VERY HIGH SNOW RATIOS ON THE ORDER OF 50:1 TO
90:1 WITH ABOUT A HALF INCH TO AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION.  CURRENT
RADAR/OBS SUGGEST THAT THE AREAS JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF MADISON
HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING SOMETHING SIMILAR TOWARD DAYBREAK
BEFORE THE LIFT SHIFTS SOUTH INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS AROUND 9AM.

THE FOCUS THEN GOES TO A COLD FRONT WHICH IS CURRENTLY IN THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.  THIS FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION
TODAY AND WILL BEGIN TO USHER SOME MUCH COLDER AIR IN.  THE
COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS AND COLD AIR LOOK LIKE THEY WILL PRODUCE
WIND CHILLS IN THE 20 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW ZERO RANGE OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...WHICH HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT FOR THE
PAST FEW DAYS FROM THE MODELS.  BASED ON THIS CONFIDENCE...HAVE GONE
AHEAD AND ISSUED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH 9AM
SATURDAY (ADVISORY CRITERIA IS 20 BELOW). IF THERE IS ONE POSSIBLE
HITCH IT IS THAT THE WINDS COULD KEEP TEMPERATURES UP IF THEY STAY
TOO STRONG AND PROMOTE MIXING.

.SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...HIGH
AFTER A BITTERLY COLD START 1045 MILLIBAR HIGH AND SUBSIDING
INFLUENCE SHOULD RESULT IN A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. MID LEVEL
FLOW REMAINS STRONG FROM THE NORTHWEST THOUGH TRENDING MORE
ANTICYCLONIC. CORE OF LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS SRN
WI WITH 925 TEMPS AOB -20C IN THE MORNING MODIFYING ONLY INTO THE
MID OR UPPER TEENS CELSIUS DURING THE AFTERNOON. SO THE SUPERBLEND
GUID SHOWING MANY HIGHS STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE SINGLE DIGITS
CONTINUES TO LOOK GOOD.

.SATURDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
EXPECTING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES DURING THE EVENING WITH SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE STATE. CONTINUED THE TREND OF A NON-
DIURNAL TEMP CURVE AS WAA INCREASES LATER IN THE NIGHT WITH
INCREASING MID DECK. CONTINUED THE SLGT CHC/CHC POPS IN OUR FAR
SW CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT AS MODELS ARE SHOWING THE LEADING WAA WING
OF LIGHT SNOW NUDGING INTO THOSE AREAS.

.SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH
BOOSTED POPS EVEN FURTHER INTO THE CATEGORICAL RANGE WITH THE
CONSISTENT SIGNAL FORM THE MODELS OF WIDESPREAD SNOW LIKELY WITH
ARRIVING WAA AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH. GETTING SOME IMPRESSIVE VERTICAL
MOTION SIGNALS WITH COINCIDENT WAA AND DCVA. BUFKIT...ESPECIALLY
THE NAM...SHOWS DEEP DENDRITIC GROWTH POTENTIAL. CONSENSUS OF QPF
IS BETWEEN 0.10 AND 0.20 WITH COBB RATIOS ANYWHERE FROM 16-25/1 SO
GETTING SOME RESULTING SNOWFALL TOTALS THAT MAY PUSH THIS EVENT
INTO THE ADVISORY CATEGORY. SUSTAINED WAA AND YET TO ARRIVE SFC/850
TROUGH WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN SNOWFALL RIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

.MONDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
BROAD MID LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTS WITH LINGERING SHORTWAVE
ACTIVITY STILL POSSIBLE. THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH EXPECTED TO SHIFT
EAST THOUGH THE GFS LINGERS THIS FEATURE A BIT LONGER INTO THE
MORNING HOURS.

.TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW
THE 00Z GFS LOOKS LIKE WHAT THE ECMWF WAS SHOWING LAST NIGHT WITH
A POTENT CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM RIDING SOUTHEAST WITH ABUNDANT QPF
ACROSS THE AREA. THE ECMWF IS NOW DRY WITH COLD ADVECTION AND THE
SYSTEM OF CONCERN IS PROGGD TO RIDE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY COMPLETELY MISSING WI. MEANWHILE THE
GFS SHOWS THE VORT RIDING THROUGH ERN IA WITH AN 850 LOW JUST
SOUTH OF DBQ. WILL BE GOING THE SUPERBLEND ROUTE ON POPS UNTIL A
PATTERN OF CONSENSUS AND CONSISTENCY IS REALIZED.

.WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
GFS AND ECMWF SHOW SOME LOW LEVEL RIDGING WHICH APPEARS TO BE
SETTING UP FOR A QUIET WEDNESDAY. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A POTENTIAL
WARMUP BEGINNING THURSDAY AS 850 BAROCLINIC ZONE LIFTS NORTHEAST
THROUGH WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE ECMWF SHOWS A NW/SE ORIENTED AREA
OF LIGHT QPF ASSOCIATED WITH THE 850 BAROCLINIC ZONE ON THURSDAY.
ALL IN ALL BROAD MID LEVEL RIDGING WITH INCREASING HEIGHTS WILL BE
ADVANCING EASTWARD FROM THE PLAINS THIS PERIOD SIGNALING THE START
OF A WARMUP. THE GFS SHOWS 925 TEMPS APPCH ZERO CELSIUS IN SRN
CWA BY LATER THURSDAY WITH THE ECMWF A BIT COLDER.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...THE MAIN FOCUS AT THE TAF SITES IS WITH THE
EARLY CHANCES FOR MSN TO SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW THIS MORNING. IT
APPEARS AS THOUGH THE MAIN BAND OF SNOW IS STAYING TO THE SOUTHWEST
OF MSN...BUT THERE COULD STILL BE SOME BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS THAT
GET IN FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING. BEYOND THAT IT IS MAINLY JUST
SOME GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES GOING THROUGH THE REST
OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON ON
INTO TONIGHT WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS GUSTING UP INTO THE 25 TO
30 KT RANGE OVER THIS PERIOD. WITH THE OFF SHORE FLOW...THE HIGHEST
WAVES WILL BE OUT TOWARD THE OPEN WATERS OF THE LAKE. WINDS WILL
QUICKLY DIMINISH ON SATURDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST SATURDAY
     FOR WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 AM CST SATURDAY FOR
     LMZ643>646.

&&

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HALBACH
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...COLLAR





000
FXUS63 KMKX 120926
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
326 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

THE FOCUS THIS MORNING IS ON THE FLUFFY LIGHT SNOW MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY HOW LOW THE WIND CHILLS
WILL GET TONIGHT.

CURRENTLY...A QUICK MOVING AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS TRACKING
TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION AND IS PRODUCING SOME VERY LIGHT AND
FLUFFY SNOW ACROSS SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN.  SOME LOW LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS HAS PROVIDED ENOUGH LIFT TO SATURATE THE COLUMN FROM
AROUND 900-750MB WHICH IS RIGHT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE.  UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS FROM THE MINNEAPOLIS/LA CROSSE
AREA HAVE SHOWN SOME VERY HIGH SNOW RATIOS ON THE ORDER OF 50:1 TO
90:1 WITH ABOUT A HALF INCH TO AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION.  CURRENT
RADAR/OBS SUGGEST THAT THE AREAS JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF MADISON
HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING SOMETHING SIMILAR TOWARD DAYBREAK
BEFORE THE LIFT SHIFTS SOUTH INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS AROUND 9AM.

THE FOCUS THEN GOES TO A COLD FRONT WHICH IS CURRENTLY IN THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.  THIS FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION
TODAY AND WILL BEGIN TO USHER SOME MUCH COLDER AIR IN.  THE
COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS AND COLD AIR LOOK LIKE THEY WILL PRODUCE
WIND CHILLS IN THE 20 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW ZERO RANGE OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...WHICH HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT FOR THE
PAST FEW DAYS FROM THE MODELS.  BASED ON THIS CONFIDENCE...HAVE GONE
AHEAD AND ISSUED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH 9AM
SATURDAY (ADVISORY CRITERIA IS 20 BELOW). IF THERE IS ONE POSSIBLE
HITCH IT IS THAT THE WINDS COULD KEEP TEMPERATURES UP IF THEY STAY
TOO STRONG AND PROMOTE MIXING.

.SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...HIGH
AFTER A BITTERLY COLD START 1045 MILLIBAR HIGH AND SUBSIDING
INFLUENCE SHOULD RESULT IN A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. MID LEVEL
FLOW REMAINS STRONG FROM THE NORTHWEST THOUGH TRENDING MORE
ANTICYCLONIC. CORE OF LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS SRN
WI WITH 925 TEMPS AOB -20C IN THE MORNING MODIFYING ONLY INTO THE
MID OR UPPER TEENS CELSIUS DURING THE AFTERNOON. SO THE SUPERBLEND
GUID SHOWING MANY HIGHS STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE SINGLE DIGITS
CONTINUES TO LOOK GOOD.

.SATURDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
EXPECTING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES DURING THE EVENING WITH SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE STATE. CONTINUED THE TREND OF A NON-
DIURNAL TEMP CURVE AS WAA INCREASES LATER IN THE NIGHT WITH
INCREASING MID DECK. CONTINUED THE SLGT CHC/CHC POPS IN OUR FAR
SW CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT AS MODELS ARE SHOWING THE LEADING WAA WING
OF LIGHT SNOW NUDGING INTO THOSE AREAS.

.SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH
BOOSTED POPS EVEN FURTHER INTO THE CATEGORICAL RANGE WITH THE
CONSISTENT SIGNAL FORM THE MODELS OF WIDESPREAD SNOW LIKELY WITH
ARRIVING WAA AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH. GETTING SOME IMPRESSIVE VERTICAL
MOTION SIGNALS WITH COINCIDENT WAA AND DCVA. BUFKIT...ESPECIALLY
THE NAM...SHOWS DEEP DENDRITIC GROWTH POTENTIAL. CONSENSUS OF QPF
IS BETWEEN 0.10 AND 0.20 WITH COBB RATIOS ANYWHERE FROM 16-25/1 SO
GETTING SOME RESULTING SNOWFALL TOTALS THAT MAY PUSH THIS EVENT
INTO THE ADVISORY CATEGORY. SUSTAINED WAA AND YET TO ARRIVE SFC/850
TROUGH WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN SNOWFALL RIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

.MONDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
BROAD MID LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTS WITH LINGERING SHORTWAVE
ACTIVITY STILL POSSIBLE. THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH EXPECTED TO SHIFT
EAST THOUGH THE GFS LINGERS THIS FEATURE A BIT LONGER INTO THE
MORNING HOURS.

.TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW
THE 00Z GFS LOOKS LIKE WHAT THE ECMWF WAS SHOWING LAST NIGHT WITH
A POTENT CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM RIDING SOUTHEAST WITH ABUNDANT QPF
ACROSS THE AREA. THE ECMWF IS NOW DRY WITH COLD ADVECTION AND THE
SYSTEM OF CONCERN IS PROGGD TO RIDE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY COMPLETELY MISSING WI. MEANWHILE THE
GFS SHOWS THE VORT RIDING THROUGH ERN IA WITH AN 850 LOW JUST
SOUTH OF DBQ. WILL BE GOING THE SUPERBLEND ROUTE ON POPS UNTIL A
PATTERN OF CONSENSUS AND CONSISTENCY IS REALIZED.

.WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
GFS AND ECMWF SHOW SOME LOW LEVEL RIDGING WHICH APPEARS TO BE
SETTING UP FOR A QUIET WEDNESDAY. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A POTENTIAL
WARMUP BEGINNING THURSDAY AS 850 BAROCLINIC ZONE LIFTS NORTHEAST
THROUGH WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE ECMWF SHOWS A NW/SE ORIENTED AREA
OF LIGHT QPF ASSOCIATED WITH THE 850 BAROCLINIC ZONE ON THURSDAY.
ALL IN ALL BROAD MID LEVEL RIDGING WITH INCREASING HEIGHTS WILL BE
ADVANCING EASTWARD FROM THE PLAINS THIS PERIOD SIGNALING THE START
OF A WARMUP. THE GFS SHOWS 925 TEMPS APPCH ZERO CELSIUS IN SRN
CWA BY LATER THURSDAY WITH THE ECMWF A BIT COLDER.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...THE MAIN FOCUS AT THE TAF SITES IS WITH THE
EARLY CHANCES FOR MSN TO SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW THIS MORNING. IT
APPEARS AS THOUGH THE MAIN BAND OF SNOW IS STAYING TO THE SOUTHWEST
OF MSN...BUT THERE COULD STILL BE SOME BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS THAT
GET IN FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING. BEYOND THAT IT IS MAINLY JUST
SOME GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES GOING THROUGH THE REST
OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON ON
INTO TONIGHT WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS GUSTING UP INTO THE 25 TO
30 KT RANGE OVER THIS PERIOD. WITH THE OFF SHORE FLOW...THE HIGHEST
WAVES WILL BE OUT TOWARD THE OPEN WATERS OF THE LAKE. WINDS WILL
QUICKLY DIMINISH ON SATURDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST SATURDAY
     FOR WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 AM CST SATURDAY FOR
     LMZ643>646.

&&

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HALBACH
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...COLLAR




000
FXUS63 KMKX 120412
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1012 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.UPDATE...

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...

CLOUDS CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO S WI THIS EVENING ON WARM ADVECTION.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FLURRIES ACROSS THE TAF SITES
OVERNIGHT DUE TO SATURATION OF THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE...AND WEAK 850
MB FRONTOGENESIS. CIGS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY WITH
HEIGHTS BETWEEN 4000-7000FT. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS
SOUTHWEST OF MSN. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH THAT MSN WILL SEE MVFR
CIGS...BUT CANNOT RULE IT OUT ENTIRELY AS SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
HIGH-END MVFR CIGS AT MSN. THE BEST TIME TO SEE MVFR CIGS AT MSN
WOULD BE BETWEEN 3 AM AND 8 AM CST FRIDAY MORNING. THE EASTERN TAF
SITES CIG HEIGHTS SHOULD REMAIN VFR OVERNIGHT.

NORTHWEST WINDS AND CAA WILL INCREASE FRIDAY WITH GUSTS 20 TO 30
KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE STRONG CAA AND STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES WILL LEAD TO BROKEN STRATOCUMULS DURING THE AFTERNOON THAT
WILL LIKELY PRODUCE AT LEAST FLURRIES. CIGS AROUND 3.5 KFT ARE
EXPECTED BUT AREAS OF MVFR CIGS WILL OCCUR AT TIMES. CLEARING
SKIES FOR FRI EVE AS VERY COLD AND DRY AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES
SOUTHWEST OF THE STATE. SOUNDINGS SHOW THE LOWEST 4K FT SATURATING
TONIGHT IN SOUTH-CENTRAL WI BUT SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH IT SHOULD STAY
SOUTHWEST OF THE STATE WHERE THERE IS BETTER FORCING. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES. WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS DAYTIME WIND CHILL VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND -5 TO 0 DEG.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD.
THE AXIS OF THE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER SRN WI LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...IT THEN SLIDES QUICKLY ESE SATURDAY
NIGHT. FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING LOWS MAY BE THE COLDEST OF
THIS STRETCH. ALL OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN SHOULD BE BELOW ZERO WITH
WIND CHILLS -17 TO -25 BELOW ZERO. SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL LIKELY
OCCUR AROUND MIDNIGHT...THEN SLOWLY RISE TOWARD SUNRISE SUNDAY AS
WE GET INTO A RETURN FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE RETREATING HIGH.
WE COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW JUST MAKE IT INTO AREAS SOUTHWEST OF
MADISON JUST PRIOR TO 12Z IN THE RETURN FLOW WARM AIR ADVECTION.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

THE FIRST OF A SERIES OF NORTHWEST CLIPPER SHORT WAVES WILL ARRIVE
ON SUNDAY. THE SOUNDINGS SUGGEST COLUMN SATURATION WILL BE VERY
RAPID...ESPECIALLY FROM MADISON ON WEST...WITH AN EXCEPTIONALLY
DEEP DENDRITE GROWTH REGION DEVELOPING ON BOTH THE NAM AND THE
GFS FOR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THE NAM IS MUCH SLOWER THAN THE GFS
AND ECMWF IN PUSHING THE LIGHT SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN ON
SUNDAY. THIS IS LIKELY THE RESULT OF SO MUCH DRY AIR THAT WILL
NEED TO BE ERODED BEFORE ANY PRECIP REACHES THE GROUND. THE NAM IS
LIKELY ONTO THE RIGHT TREND AND WILL BLEND THE NAM WITH A
GFS/ECMWF PROGRESSION. RATIOS ARE VERY HIGH...SO THIS WILL BE A
DRY SNOW. ABOUT 1 TO 3 INCHES LOOKS GOOD FOR NOW...HIGHEST SOUTHWEST
OF MADISON...LOWER IN THE FAR EAST WHERE THE DRIER AIR WILL HELP
TO KEEP AMOUNTS A BIT LOWER.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE NOISY WITH A FEW
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES CLIPPING THROUGH. THIS WILL KEEP THE CHANCE
OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.
SNOW AMOUNTS LOOK VERY LIGHT AND SHOULDN/T HAVE MUCH IMPACT AROUND
THE AREA. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE GRADUALLY WARMING TOWARD THE FREEZING
MARK BY TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

WE SHOULD GET UNDER SOME QUIETER HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A VERY SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW WEDNESDAY...
PROBABLY EARLY IN THE DAY...THEN DRY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
20S TO MID 30S.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTHWEST
OF THE STATE. MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE IN SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-
CENTRAL WI LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE LOW BUT I
DONT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY WITH GUSTS 20 TO 30 KTS DURING
THE AFTERNOON. HIGHEST GUSTS WILL BE IN FAR SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST
WI AND WILL LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

MARINE... A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP ON FRIDAY BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME NORTHWEST
BY THE AFTERNOON. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. EXPECT FRIDAY AFTERNOON GUSTS UP
TO 30 KTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS TO 35 KTS POSSIBLE DURING THE
EVENING TOWARD THE OPEN WATERS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS LATE SATURDAY MORNING BUT HIGH WAVES
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 9 AM CST SATURDAY FOR
     LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GEHRING
TONIGHT/FRIDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...SPM
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...DAVIS





000
FXUS63 KMKX 120412
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1012 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.UPDATE...

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...

CLOUDS CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO S WI THIS EVENING ON WARM ADVECTION.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FLURRIES ACROSS THE TAF SITES
OVERNIGHT DUE TO SATURATION OF THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE...AND WEAK 850
MB FRONTOGENESIS. CIGS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY WITH
HEIGHTS BETWEEN 4000-7000FT. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS
SOUTHWEST OF MSN. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH THAT MSN WILL SEE MVFR
CIGS...BUT CANNOT RULE IT OUT ENTIRELY AS SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
HIGH-END MVFR CIGS AT MSN. THE BEST TIME TO SEE MVFR CIGS AT MSN
WOULD BE BETWEEN 3 AM AND 8 AM CST FRIDAY MORNING. THE EASTERN TAF
SITES CIG HEIGHTS SHOULD REMAIN VFR OVERNIGHT.

NORTHWEST WINDS AND CAA WILL INCREASE FRIDAY WITH GUSTS 20 TO 30
KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE STRONG CAA AND STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES WILL LEAD TO BROKEN STRATOCUMULS DURING THE AFTERNOON THAT
WILL LIKELY PRODUCE AT LEAST FLURRIES. CIGS AROUND 3.5 KFT ARE
EXPECTED BUT AREAS OF MVFR CIGS WILL OCCUR AT TIMES. CLEARING
SKIES FOR FRI EVE AS VERY COLD AND DRY AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES
SOUTHWEST OF THE STATE. SOUNDINGS SHOW THE LOWEST 4K FT SATURATING
TONIGHT IN SOUTH-CENTRAL WI BUT SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH IT SHOULD STAY
SOUTHWEST OF THE STATE WHERE THERE IS BETTER FORCING. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES. WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS DAYTIME WIND CHILL VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND -5 TO 0 DEG.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD.
THE AXIS OF THE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER SRN WI LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...IT THEN SLIDES QUICKLY ESE SATURDAY
NIGHT. FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING LOWS MAY BE THE COLDEST OF
THIS STRETCH. ALL OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN SHOULD BE BELOW ZERO WITH
WIND CHILLS -17 TO -25 BELOW ZERO. SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL LIKELY
OCCUR AROUND MIDNIGHT...THEN SLOWLY RISE TOWARD SUNRISE SUNDAY AS
WE GET INTO A RETURN FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE RETREATING HIGH.
WE COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW JUST MAKE IT INTO AREAS SOUTHWEST OF
MADISON JUST PRIOR TO 12Z IN THE RETURN FLOW WARM AIR ADVECTION.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

THE FIRST OF A SERIES OF NORTHWEST CLIPPER SHORT WAVES WILL ARRIVE
ON SUNDAY. THE SOUNDINGS SUGGEST COLUMN SATURATION WILL BE VERY
RAPID...ESPECIALLY FROM MADISON ON WEST...WITH AN EXCEPTIONALLY
DEEP DENDRITE GROWTH REGION DEVELOPING ON BOTH THE NAM AND THE
GFS FOR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THE NAM IS MUCH SLOWER THAN THE GFS
AND ECMWF IN PUSHING THE LIGHT SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN ON
SUNDAY. THIS IS LIKELY THE RESULT OF SO MUCH DRY AIR THAT WILL
NEED TO BE ERODED BEFORE ANY PRECIP REACHES THE GROUND. THE NAM IS
LIKELY ONTO THE RIGHT TREND AND WILL BLEND THE NAM WITH A
GFS/ECMWF PROGRESSION. RATIOS ARE VERY HIGH...SO THIS WILL BE A
DRY SNOW. ABOUT 1 TO 3 INCHES LOOKS GOOD FOR NOW...HIGHEST SOUTHWEST
OF MADISON...LOWER IN THE FAR EAST WHERE THE DRIER AIR WILL HELP
TO KEEP AMOUNTS A BIT LOWER.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE NOISY WITH A FEW
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES CLIPPING THROUGH. THIS WILL KEEP THE CHANCE
OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.
SNOW AMOUNTS LOOK VERY LIGHT AND SHOULDN/T HAVE MUCH IMPACT AROUND
THE AREA. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE GRADUALLY WARMING TOWARD THE FREEZING
MARK BY TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

WE SHOULD GET UNDER SOME QUIETER HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A VERY SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW WEDNESDAY...
PROBABLY EARLY IN THE DAY...THEN DRY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
20S TO MID 30S.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTHWEST
OF THE STATE. MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE IN SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-
CENTRAL WI LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE LOW BUT I
DONT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY WITH GUSTS 20 TO 30 KTS DURING
THE AFTERNOON. HIGHEST GUSTS WILL BE IN FAR SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST
WI AND WILL LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

MARINE... A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP ON FRIDAY BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME NORTHWEST
BY THE AFTERNOON. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. EXPECT FRIDAY AFTERNOON GUSTS UP
TO 30 KTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS TO 35 KTS POSSIBLE DURING THE
EVENING TOWARD THE OPEN WATERS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS LATE SATURDAY MORNING BUT HIGH WAVES
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 9 AM CST SATURDAY FOR
     LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GEHRING
TONIGHT/FRIDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...SPM
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...DAVIS




000
FXUS63 KMKX 120412
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1012 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.UPDATE...

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...

CLOUDS CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO S WI THIS EVENING ON WARM ADVECTION.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FLURRIES ACROSS THE TAF SITES
OVERNIGHT DUE TO SATURATION OF THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE...AND WEAK 850
MB FRONTOGENESIS. CIGS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY WITH
HEIGHTS BETWEEN 4000-7000FT. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS
SOUTHWEST OF MSN. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH THAT MSN WILL SEE MVFR
CIGS...BUT CANNOT RULE IT OUT ENTIRELY AS SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
HIGH-END MVFR CIGS AT MSN. THE BEST TIME TO SEE MVFR CIGS AT MSN
WOULD BE BETWEEN 3 AM AND 8 AM CST FRIDAY MORNING. THE EASTERN TAF
SITES CIG HEIGHTS SHOULD REMAIN VFR OVERNIGHT.

NORTHWEST WINDS AND CAA WILL INCREASE FRIDAY WITH GUSTS 20 TO 30
KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE STRONG CAA AND STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES WILL LEAD TO BROKEN STRATOCUMULS DURING THE AFTERNOON THAT
WILL LIKELY PRODUCE AT LEAST FLURRIES. CIGS AROUND 3.5 KFT ARE
EXPECTED BUT AREAS OF MVFR CIGS WILL OCCUR AT TIMES. CLEARING
SKIES FOR FRI EVE AS VERY COLD AND DRY AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES
SOUTHWEST OF THE STATE. SOUNDINGS SHOW THE LOWEST 4K FT SATURATING
TONIGHT IN SOUTH-CENTRAL WI BUT SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH IT SHOULD STAY
SOUTHWEST OF THE STATE WHERE THERE IS BETTER FORCING. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES. WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS DAYTIME WIND CHILL VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND -5 TO 0 DEG.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD.
THE AXIS OF THE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER SRN WI LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...IT THEN SLIDES QUICKLY ESE SATURDAY
NIGHT. FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING LOWS MAY BE THE COLDEST OF
THIS STRETCH. ALL OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN SHOULD BE BELOW ZERO WITH
WIND CHILLS -17 TO -25 BELOW ZERO. SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL LIKELY
OCCUR AROUND MIDNIGHT...THEN SLOWLY RISE TOWARD SUNRISE SUNDAY AS
WE GET INTO A RETURN FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE RETREATING HIGH.
WE COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW JUST MAKE IT INTO AREAS SOUTHWEST OF
MADISON JUST PRIOR TO 12Z IN THE RETURN FLOW WARM AIR ADVECTION.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

THE FIRST OF A SERIES OF NORTHWEST CLIPPER SHORT WAVES WILL ARRIVE
ON SUNDAY. THE SOUNDINGS SUGGEST COLUMN SATURATION WILL BE VERY
RAPID...ESPECIALLY FROM MADISON ON WEST...WITH AN EXCEPTIONALLY
DEEP DENDRITE GROWTH REGION DEVELOPING ON BOTH THE NAM AND THE
GFS FOR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THE NAM IS MUCH SLOWER THAN THE GFS
AND ECMWF IN PUSHING THE LIGHT SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN ON
SUNDAY. THIS IS LIKELY THE RESULT OF SO MUCH DRY AIR THAT WILL
NEED TO BE ERODED BEFORE ANY PRECIP REACHES THE GROUND. THE NAM IS
LIKELY ONTO THE RIGHT TREND AND WILL BLEND THE NAM WITH A
GFS/ECMWF PROGRESSION. RATIOS ARE VERY HIGH...SO THIS WILL BE A
DRY SNOW. ABOUT 1 TO 3 INCHES LOOKS GOOD FOR NOW...HIGHEST SOUTHWEST
OF MADISON...LOWER IN THE FAR EAST WHERE THE DRIER AIR WILL HELP
TO KEEP AMOUNTS A BIT LOWER.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE NOISY WITH A FEW
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES CLIPPING THROUGH. THIS WILL KEEP THE CHANCE
OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.
SNOW AMOUNTS LOOK VERY LIGHT AND SHOULDN/T HAVE MUCH IMPACT AROUND
THE AREA. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE GRADUALLY WARMING TOWARD THE FREEZING
MARK BY TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

WE SHOULD GET UNDER SOME QUIETER HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A VERY SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW WEDNESDAY...
PROBABLY EARLY IN THE DAY...THEN DRY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
20S TO MID 30S.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTHWEST
OF THE STATE. MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE IN SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-
CENTRAL WI LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE LOW BUT I
DONT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY WITH GUSTS 20 TO 30 KTS DURING
THE AFTERNOON. HIGHEST GUSTS WILL BE IN FAR SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST
WI AND WILL LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

MARINE... A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP ON FRIDAY BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME NORTHWEST
BY THE AFTERNOON. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. EXPECT FRIDAY AFTERNOON GUSTS UP
TO 30 KTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS TO 35 KTS POSSIBLE DURING THE
EVENING TOWARD THE OPEN WATERS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS LATE SATURDAY MORNING BUT HIGH WAVES
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 9 AM CST SATURDAY FOR
     LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GEHRING
TONIGHT/FRIDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...SPM
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...DAVIS





000
FXUS63 KMKX 112117
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
317 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES
SOUTHWEST OF THE STATE. SOUNDINGS SHOW THE LOWEST 4K FT SATURATING
TONIGHT IN SOUTH-CENTRAL WI BUT SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH IT SHOULD STAY
SOUTHWEST OF THE STATE WHERE THERE IS BETTER FORCING. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES. WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS DAYTIME WIND CHILL VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND -5 TO 0 DEG.

.FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD.
THE AXIS OF THE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER SRN WI LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...IT THEN SLIDES QUICKLY ESE SATURDAY
NIGHT. FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING LOWS MAY BE THE COLDEST OF
THIS STRETCH. ALL OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN SHOULD BE BELOW ZERO WITH
WIND CHILLS -17 TO -25 BELOW ZERO. SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL LIKELY
OCCUR AROUND MIDNIGHT...THEN SLOWLY RISE TOWARD SUNRISE SUNDAY AS
WE GET INTO A RETURN FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE RETREATING HIGH.
WE COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW JUST MAKE IT INTO AREAS SOUTHWEST OF
MADISON JUST PRIOR TO 12Z IN THE RETURN FLOW WARM AIR ADVECTION.

.SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

THE FIRST OF A SERIES OF NORTHWEST CLIPPER SHORT WAVES WILL ARRIVE
ON SUNDAY. THE SOUNDINGS SUGGEST COLUMN SATURATION WILL BE VERY
RAPID...ESPECIALLY FROM MADISON ON WEST...WITH AN EXCEPTIONALLY
DEEP DENDRITE GROWTH REGION DEVELOPING ON BOTH THE NAM AND THE
GFS FOR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THE NAM IS MUCH SLOWER THAN THE GFS
AND ECMWF IN PUSHING THE LIGHT SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN ON
SUNDAY. THIS IS LIKELY THE RESULT OF SO MUCH DRY AIR THAT WILL
NEED TO BE ERODED BEFORE ANY PRECIP REACHES THE GROUND. THE NAM IS
LIKELY ONTO THE RIGHT TREND AND WILL BLEND THE NAM WITH A
GFS/ECMWF PROGRESSION. RATIOS ARE VERY HIGH...SO THIS WILL BE A
DRY SNOW. ABOUT 1 TO 3 INCHES LOOKS GOOD FOR NOW...HIGHEST SOUTHWEST
OF MADISON...LOWER IN THE FAR EAST WHERE THE DRIER AIR WILL HELP
TO KEEP AMOUNTS A BIT LOWER.

.MONDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE NOISY WITH A FEW
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES CLIPPING THROUGH. THIS WILL KEEP THE CHANCE
OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.
SNOW AMOUNTS LOOK VERY LIGHT AND SHOULDN/T HAVE MUCH IMPACT AROUND
THE AREA. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE GRADUALLY WARMING TOWARD THE FREEZING
MARK BY TUESDAY.

.WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

WE SHOULD GET UNDER SOME QUIETER HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A VERY SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW WEDNESDAY...
PROBABLY EARLY IN THE DAY...THEN DRY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
20S TO MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTHWEST
OF THE STATE. MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE IN SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-
CENTRAL WI LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE LOW BUT I
DONT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY WITH GUSTS 20 TO 30 KTS DURING
THE AFTERNOON. HIGHEST GUSTS WILL BE IN FAR SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST
WI AND WILL LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

&&

.MARINE... A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP ON FRIDAY BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME NORTHWEST
BY THE AFTERNOON. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. EXPECT FRIDAY AFTERNOON GUSTS UP
TO 30 KTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS TO 35 KTS POSSIBLE DURING THE
EVENING TOWARD THE OPEN WATERS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS LATE SATURDAY MORNING BUT HIGH WAVES
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 9 AM CST SATURDAY FOR
     LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

TONIGHT/FRIDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MARQUARDT
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...DAVIS





000
FXUS63 KMKX 111621 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1021 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS SOUTHWEST WI TODAY BRINGING SUNNY
SKIES. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES SOUTHWEST OF THE STATE. SOUNDINGS SHOW THE LOWEST 4K FT
SATURATING TONIGHT IN SOUTH-CENTRAL WI BUT PRECIP SHOULD STAY
SOUTHWEST OF THE STATE WHERE THERE IS BETTER FORCING.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTHWEST
OF THE STATE. ANY SNOW TONIGHT WILL BE CONFINED TO FAR SOUTHWEST WI.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY WITH GUSTS 20 TO 30 KTS.
HIGHEST GUSTS WILL BE IN SOUTHEAST WI.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

THE MAIN FOCUS IS ON THE SMALL CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW IN
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT.

CURRENTLY...AN ELONGATED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM NORTH
CENTRAL CANADA DOWN TO THE SOUTHEASTERN US.  NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT HAS USHERED IN A COLD AIR MASS FROM NORTHERN CANADA WITH
SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND 0F.  THE CORE OF
THIS RIDGE WILL TRACK TO THE SOUTHEAST TODAY ALONG THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND CREATE A SUNNY AND CLEAR DAY WITH LIGHT
WINDS.

GOING INTO TONIGHT...THERE IS A FAIRLY CONSISTENT SIGNAL IN THE
11.00Z GUIDANCE WITH SHOWING A QUICK MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT
GOES FROM WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON TO CENTRAL MISSOURI
OVERNIGHT.  SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TO THE NORTH OF THIS
LOW...MAINLY DUE TO THE LIFT PROVIDED BY THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE
250MB JET STREAK.  THE QUESTION IS HOW FAR NORTHEAST WILL THE SNOW
MAKE IT AS THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AS MUCH LOW LEVEL LIFT THAT
GETS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN.  11.00Z FORECAST THERMAL PROFILES
SHOW A 200 TO 300MB DEEP LAYER WHERE THE TEMP/DEW POINT IS IN THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...BUT SATURATION IS SOMEWHAT SPORADIC. IF LIFT
WAS A LITTLE BIT STRONGER...WOULD HAVE HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN SOME
ACCUMULATING SNOW...PARTICULARLY IN SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN.  FOR
NOW...IT MAINLY LOOKS LIKE FLURRIES OR A POSSIBLE DUSTING THERE.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
NORTHWEST 500 MILLIBAR FLOW STRENGTHENS AND BECOMES INCREASINGLY
CYCLONIC ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE WITHIN
THIS FLOW HEADS SOUTHEAST INTO LWR MI WITH CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE
EASTERN GRT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH SRN
WI. 925 TEMPS WILL DROP THROUGH THE NEGATIVE TEENS CELSIUS WITH
NEGATIVE LOW AND EVEN POSSIBLE MID 20S CELSIUS INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL LEAD TO A BITTERLY COLD AIRMASS WITH WIND CHILLS GETTING
NEAR OR IN SOME CASES REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA. SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON WIND STRENGTH LATER FRIDAY NIGHT. 925 WINDS PROGGD TO BE 20
KNOTS OR HIGHER THOUGH GRADIENT DOES SLACKEN AFTER 06Z. SO HAVE
LOWERED TEMPS A BIT MORE IN THE WESTERN CWA. STILL LOOKING AT
PARTS OF THE AREA VULNERABLE FOR WIND CHILL ADVISORY.

SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
AFTER A BITTERLY COLD START 1045 MILLIBAR HIGH AND SUBSIDING
INFLUENCE SHOULD RESULT IN A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. MID LEVEL
FLOW REMAINS STRONG FROM THE NORTHWEST THOUGH TRENDING MORE
ANTICYCLONIC. CORE OF LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS SRN
WI WITH 925 TEMPS AOB -20C IN THE MORNING MODIFYING ONLY INTO THE
MID OR UPPER TEENS CELSIUS DURING THE AFTERNOON. SO THE SUPERBLEND
GUID SHOWING MANY HIGHS STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE SINGLE DIGITS
CONTINUES TO LOOK PLAUSIBLE.

SATURDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
EXPECTING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES DURING THE EVENING WITH SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE STATE. WENT WITH A NON-DIURNAL TEMP CURVE AS
WAA INCREASES LATER IN THE NIGHT WITH INCREASING MID DECK. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS IN THE FAR WEST SHOW A MASSIVE DRY LAYER TO OVERCOME
WITH THE GFS SHOWING BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTENING WITH TIME. THE
NAM KEEPS THE DRY LAYER ALL NIGHT AND THUS SHOWS NO QPF WITH THE
APPCH SHORTWAVE. WENT WITH SOME SMALL POPS IN OUR FAR SW CWA AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW QPF ARRIVING WITH THE WAA
WING AHEAD OF THE APPCH SYSTEM.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH
PRETTY SOLID AGREEMENT IN PLACE FOR FAIRLY POTENT SHORTWAVE TO
MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES THIS PERIOD WITH ASSOC DCVA AND WAA OUT
AHEAD TO GENERATE ACCUMULATING SNOWS. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS COME A BIT
MORE IN LINE WITH THE CONSISTENTLY WETTER LOOK OF THE GFS
SOLUTION. PER COLLAB WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES HAVE NUDGED BOTH
POPS AND QPF OVER WHAT THE SUPERBLEND OFFERED. LOOKS LIKE A FEW
INCHES AT THIS TIME WITH STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH QPF AND HOW
QUICK DRY AIR CAN ERODE. STILL POTENTIAL FOR A FEW INCHES WITH
SOME IMPACT DUE TO THE COLDER AIR TEMPS IN THE TEENS. THE SFC/850
TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW CHANCES.
BEST DCVA PROGGD TO ARRIVE LATER IN THE AFTN INTO THE ERLY EVE
HRS.

MONDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES WITH A SECONDARY MID LEVEL TROUGH
SWINGING THROUGH WITH CYCLONIC LOW LEVELS RESULTING IN MORE SNOW
CHANCES WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING LIGHT QPF WITH THIS
SYSTEM.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW
TIMING DIFFERENCES NOT THAT ATYPICAL WITH A FAST MOVING NW FLOW
REGIME THIS FAR OUT. THE ECMWF WRAPS UP A FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE LOW
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY TO OUR SOUTH WITH APPRECIABLE QPF.
MEANWHILE THE GFS SHOWS A WEAKER SYSTEM WITH PRECIP MOSTLY
ASSOCIATED WITH SOME WAA AND A LESS PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE AND MUCH
LESS QPF THAN THE ECMWF. WILL BE GOING WITH THE SUPERBLEND GUID
THIS PERIOD.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY BEFORE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVE IN TONIGHT. MSN MAY BE
ON THE EDGE OF SOME FLURRIES AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT AM NOT EXPECTING
ANY VISIBILITY DROPS THERE DUE TO SNOW WITH THE HIGHER CHANCES
BEING IN IOWA/ILLINOIS. CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME MVFR CEILINGS AT
MSN...BUT EXPECT THAT IT WILL MORE LIKELY STAY VFR. WINDS WILL BE
ON THE LIGHT SIDE TODAY BEFORE SWITCHING AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST
LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

MARINE...THE MAIN CONCERNS FOR OVER THE LAKE ARE FOR THE FRIDAY
INTO EARLY SATURDAY PERIOD AFTER A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES AREA. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
PUSHING DOWN INTO THE HIGH PLAINS AND WILL CREATE A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. OFF SHORE NORTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THE SUSTAINED 20KT-GUST 30KT RANGE...
PARTICULARLY FRIDAY NIGHT. SO...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE
NEEDED FOR THIS PERIOD ONCE IT GETS A LITTLE CLOSER. ALSO...THE
COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS...WAVES OVER 4 FEET...AND COLD AIR
MOVING ACROSS THE LAKE WILL LEAD TO SOME MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY
OVER THIS PERIOD.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MARQUARDT
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HALBACH
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...COLLAR





000
FXUS63 KMKX 111621 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1021 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS SOUTHWEST WI TODAY BRINGING SUNNY
SKIES. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES SOUTHWEST OF THE STATE. SOUNDINGS SHOW THE LOWEST 4K FT
SATURATING TONIGHT IN SOUTH-CENTRAL WI BUT PRECIP SHOULD STAY
SOUTHWEST OF THE STATE WHERE THERE IS BETTER FORCING.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTHWEST
OF THE STATE. ANY SNOW TONIGHT WILL BE CONFINED TO FAR SOUTHWEST WI.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY WITH GUSTS 20 TO 30 KTS.
HIGHEST GUSTS WILL BE IN SOUTHEAST WI.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

THE MAIN FOCUS IS ON THE SMALL CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW IN
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT.

CURRENTLY...AN ELONGATED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM NORTH
CENTRAL CANADA DOWN TO THE SOUTHEASTERN US.  NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT HAS USHERED IN A COLD AIR MASS FROM NORTHERN CANADA WITH
SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND 0F.  THE CORE OF
THIS RIDGE WILL TRACK TO THE SOUTHEAST TODAY ALONG THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND CREATE A SUNNY AND CLEAR DAY WITH LIGHT
WINDS.

GOING INTO TONIGHT...THERE IS A FAIRLY CONSISTENT SIGNAL IN THE
11.00Z GUIDANCE WITH SHOWING A QUICK MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT
GOES FROM WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON TO CENTRAL MISSOURI
OVERNIGHT.  SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TO THE NORTH OF THIS
LOW...MAINLY DUE TO THE LIFT PROVIDED BY THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE
250MB JET STREAK.  THE QUESTION IS HOW FAR NORTHEAST WILL THE SNOW
MAKE IT AS THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AS MUCH LOW LEVEL LIFT THAT
GETS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN.  11.00Z FORECAST THERMAL PROFILES
SHOW A 200 TO 300MB DEEP LAYER WHERE THE TEMP/DEW POINT IS IN THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...BUT SATURATION IS SOMEWHAT SPORADIC. IF LIFT
WAS A LITTLE BIT STRONGER...WOULD HAVE HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN SOME
ACCUMULATING SNOW...PARTICULARLY IN SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN.  FOR
NOW...IT MAINLY LOOKS LIKE FLURRIES OR A POSSIBLE DUSTING THERE.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
NORTHWEST 500 MILLIBAR FLOW STRENGTHENS AND BECOMES INCREASINGLY
CYCLONIC ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE WITHIN
THIS FLOW HEADS SOUTHEAST INTO LWR MI WITH CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE
EASTERN GRT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH SRN
WI. 925 TEMPS WILL DROP THROUGH THE NEGATIVE TEENS CELSIUS WITH
NEGATIVE LOW AND EVEN POSSIBLE MID 20S CELSIUS INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL LEAD TO A BITTERLY COLD AIRMASS WITH WIND CHILLS GETTING
NEAR OR IN SOME CASES REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA. SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON WIND STRENGTH LATER FRIDAY NIGHT. 925 WINDS PROGGD TO BE 20
KNOTS OR HIGHER THOUGH GRADIENT DOES SLACKEN AFTER 06Z. SO HAVE
LOWERED TEMPS A BIT MORE IN THE WESTERN CWA. STILL LOOKING AT
PARTS OF THE AREA VULNERABLE FOR WIND CHILL ADVISORY.

SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
AFTER A BITTERLY COLD START 1045 MILLIBAR HIGH AND SUBSIDING
INFLUENCE SHOULD RESULT IN A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. MID LEVEL
FLOW REMAINS STRONG FROM THE NORTHWEST THOUGH TRENDING MORE
ANTICYCLONIC. CORE OF LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS SRN
WI WITH 925 TEMPS AOB -20C IN THE MORNING MODIFYING ONLY INTO THE
MID OR UPPER TEENS CELSIUS DURING THE AFTERNOON. SO THE SUPERBLEND
GUID SHOWING MANY HIGHS STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE SINGLE DIGITS
CONTINUES TO LOOK PLAUSIBLE.

SATURDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
EXPECTING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES DURING THE EVENING WITH SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE STATE. WENT WITH A NON-DIURNAL TEMP CURVE AS
WAA INCREASES LATER IN THE NIGHT WITH INCREASING MID DECK. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS IN THE FAR WEST SHOW A MASSIVE DRY LAYER TO OVERCOME
WITH THE GFS SHOWING BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTENING WITH TIME. THE
NAM KEEPS THE DRY LAYER ALL NIGHT AND THUS SHOWS NO QPF WITH THE
APPCH SHORTWAVE. WENT WITH SOME SMALL POPS IN OUR FAR SW CWA AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW QPF ARRIVING WITH THE WAA
WING AHEAD OF THE APPCH SYSTEM.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH
PRETTY SOLID AGREEMENT IN PLACE FOR FAIRLY POTENT SHORTWAVE TO
MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES THIS PERIOD WITH ASSOC DCVA AND WAA OUT
AHEAD TO GENERATE ACCUMULATING SNOWS. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS COME A BIT
MORE IN LINE WITH THE CONSISTENTLY WETTER LOOK OF THE GFS
SOLUTION. PER COLLAB WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES HAVE NUDGED BOTH
POPS AND QPF OVER WHAT THE SUPERBLEND OFFERED. LOOKS LIKE A FEW
INCHES AT THIS TIME WITH STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH QPF AND HOW
QUICK DRY AIR CAN ERODE. STILL POTENTIAL FOR A FEW INCHES WITH
SOME IMPACT DUE TO THE COLDER AIR TEMPS IN THE TEENS. THE SFC/850
TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW CHANCES.
BEST DCVA PROGGD TO ARRIVE LATER IN THE AFTN INTO THE ERLY EVE
HRS.

MONDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES WITH A SECONDARY MID LEVEL TROUGH
SWINGING THROUGH WITH CYCLONIC LOW LEVELS RESULTING IN MORE SNOW
CHANCES WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING LIGHT QPF WITH THIS
SYSTEM.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW
TIMING DIFFERENCES NOT THAT ATYPICAL WITH A FAST MOVING NW FLOW
REGIME THIS FAR OUT. THE ECMWF WRAPS UP A FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE LOW
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY TO OUR SOUTH WITH APPRECIABLE QPF.
MEANWHILE THE GFS SHOWS A WEAKER SYSTEM WITH PRECIP MOSTLY
ASSOCIATED WITH SOME WAA AND A LESS PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE AND MUCH
LESS QPF THAN THE ECMWF. WILL BE GOING WITH THE SUPERBLEND GUID
THIS PERIOD.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY BEFORE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVE IN TONIGHT. MSN MAY BE
ON THE EDGE OF SOME FLURRIES AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT AM NOT EXPECTING
ANY VISIBILITY DROPS THERE DUE TO SNOW WITH THE HIGHER CHANCES
BEING IN IOWA/ILLINOIS. CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME MVFR CEILINGS AT
MSN...BUT EXPECT THAT IT WILL MORE LIKELY STAY VFR. WINDS WILL BE
ON THE LIGHT SIDE TODAY BEFORE SWITCHING AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST
LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

MARINE...THE MAIN CONCERNS FOR OVER THE LAKE ARE FOR THE FRIDAY
INTO EARLY SATURDAY PERIOD AFTER A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES AREA. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
PUSHING DOWN INTO THE HIGH PLAINS AND WILL CREATE A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. OFF SHORE NORTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THE SUSTAINED 20KT-GUST 30KT RANGE...
PARTICULARLY FRIDAY NIGHT. SO...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE
NEEDED FOR THIS PERIOD ONCE IT GETS A LITTLE CLOSER. ALSO...THE
COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS...WAVES OVER 4 FEET...AND COLD AIR
MOVING ACROSS THE LAKE WILL LEAD TO SOME MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY
OVER THIS PERIOD.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MARQUARDT
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HALBACH
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...COLLAR




000
FXUS63 KMKX 111621 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1021 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS SOUTHWEST WI TODAY BRINGING SUNNY
SKIES. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES SOUTHWEST OF THE STATE. SOUNDINGS SHOW THE LOWEST 4K FT
SATURATING TONIGHT IN SOUTH-CENTRAL WI BUT PRECIP SHOULD STAY
SOUTHWEST OF THE STATE WHERE THERE IS BETTER FORCING.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTHWEST
OF THE STATE. ANY SNOW TONIGHT WILL BE CONFINED TO FAR SOUTHWEST WI.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY WITH GUSTS 20 TO 30 KTS.
HIGHEST GUSTS WILL BE IN SOUTHEAST WI.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

THE MAIN FOCUS IS ON THE SMALL CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW IN
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT.

CURRENTLY...AN ELONGATED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM NORTH
CENTRAL CANADA DOWN TO THE SOUTHEASTERN US.  NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT HAS USHERED IN A COLD AIR MASS FROM NORTHERN CANADA WITH
SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND 0F.  THE CORE OF
THIS RIDGE WILL TRACK TO THE SOUTHEAST TODAY ALONG THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND CREATE A SUNNY AND CLEAR DAY WITH LIGHT
WINDS.

GOING INTO TONIGHT...THERE IS A FAIRLY CONSISTENT SIGNAL IN THE
11.00Z GUIDANCE WITH SHOWING A QUICK MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT
GOES FROM WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON TO CENTRAL MISSOURI
OVERNIGHT.  SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TO THE NORTH OF THIS
LOW...MAINLY DUE TO THE LIFT PROVIDED BY THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE
250MB JET STREAK.  THE QUESTION IS HOW FAR NORTHEAST WILL THE SNOW
MAKE IT AS THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AS MUCH LOW LEVEL LIFT THAT
GETS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN.  11.00Z FORECAST THERMAL PROFILES
SHOW A 200 TO 300MB DEEP LAYER WHERE THE TEMP/DEW POINT IS IN THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...BUT SATURATION IS SOMEWHAT SPORADIC. IF LIFT
WAS A LITTLE BIT STRONGER...WOULD HAVE HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN SOME
ACCUMULATING SNOW...PARTICULARLY IN SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN.  FOR
NOW...IT MAINLY LOOKS LIKE FLURRIES OR A POSSIBLE DUSTING THERE.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
NORTHWEST 500 MILLIBAR FLOW STRENGTHENS AND BECOMES INCREASINGLY
CYCLONIC ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE WITHIN
THIS FLOW HEADS SOUTHEAST INTO LWR MI WITH CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE
EASTERN GRT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH SRN
WI. 925 TEMPS WILL DROP THROUGH THE NEGATIVE TEENS CELSIUS WITH
NEGATIVE LOW AND EVEN POSSIBLE MID 20S CELSIUS INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL LEAD TO A BITTERLY COLD AIRMASS WITH WIND CHILLS GETTING
NEAR OR IN SOME CASES REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA. SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON WIND STRENGTH LATER FRIDAY NIGHT. 925 WINDS PROGGD TO BE 20
KNOTS OR HIGHER THOUGH GRADIENT DOES SLACKEN AFTER 06Z. SO HAVE
LOWERED TEMPS A BIT MORE IN THE WESTERN CWA. STILL LOOKING AT
PARTS OF THE AREA VULNERABLE FOR WIND CHILL ADVISORY.

SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
AFTER A BITTERLY COLD START 1045 MILLIBAR HIGH AND SUBSIDING
INFLUENCE SHOULD RESULT IN A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. MID LEVEL
FLOW REMAINS STRONG FROM THE NORTHWEST THOUGH TRENDING MORE
ANTICYCLONIC. CORE OF LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS SRN
WI WITH 925 TEMPS AOB -20C IN THE MORNING MODIFYING ONLY INTO THE
MID OR UPPER TEENS CELSIUS DURING THE AFTERNOON. SO THE SUPERBLEND
GUID SHOWING MANY HIGHS STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE SINGLE DIGITS
CONTINUES TO LOOK PLAUSIBLE.

SATURDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
EXPECTING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES DURING THE EVENING WITH SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE STATE. WENT WITH A NON-DIURNAL TEMP CURVE AS
WAA INCREASES LATER IN THE NIGHT WITH INCREASING MID DECK. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS IN THE FAR WEST SHOW A MASSIVE DRY LAYER TO OVERCOME
WITH THE GFS SHOWING BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTENING WITH TIME. THE
NAM KEEPS THE DRY LAYER ALL NIGHT AND THUS SHOWS NO QPF WITH THE
APPCH SHORTWAVE. WENT WITH SOME SMALL POPS IN OUR FAR SW CWA AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW QPF ARRIVING WITH THE WAA
WING AHEAD OF THE APPCH SYSTEM.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH
PRETTY SOLID AGREEMENT IN PLACE FOR FAIRLY POTENT SHORTWAVE TO
MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES THIS PERIOD WITH ASSOC DCVA AND WAA OUT
AHEAD TO GENERATE ACCUMULATING SNOWS. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS COME A BIT
MORE IN LINE WITH THE CONSISTENTLY WETTER LOOK OF THE GFS
SOLUTION. PER COLLAB WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES HAVE NUDGED BOTH
POPS AND QPF OVER WHAT THE SUPERBLEND OFFERED. LOOKS LIKE A FEW
INCHES AT THIS TIME WITH STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH QPF AND HOW
QUICK DRY AIR CAN ERODE. STILL POTENTIAL FOR A FEW INCHES WITH
SOME IMPACT DUE TO THE COLDER AIR TEMPS IN THE TEENS. THE SFC/850
TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW CHANCES.
BEST DCVA PROGGD TO ARRIVE LATER IN THE AFTN INTO THE ERLY EVE
HRS.

MONDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES WITH A SECONDARY MID LEVEL TROUGH
SWINGING THROUGH WITH CYCLONIC LOW LEVELS RESULTING IN MORE SNOW
CHANCES WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING LIGHT QPF WITH THIS
SYSTEM.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW
TIMING DIFFERENCES NOT THAT ATYPICAL WITH A FAST MOVING NW FLOW
REGIME THIS FAR OUT. THE ECMWF WRAPS UP A FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE LOW
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY TO OUR SOUTH WITH APPRECIABLE QPF.
MEANWHILE THE GFS SHOWS A WEAKER SYSTEM WITH PRECIP MOSTLY
ASSOCIATED WITH SOME WAA AND A LESS PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE AND MUCH
LESS QPF THAN THE ECMWF. WILL BE GOING WITH THE SUPERBLEND GUID
THIS PERIOD.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY BEFORE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVE IN TONIGHT. MSN MAY BE
ON THE EDGE OF SOME FLURRIES AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT AM NOT EXPECTING
ANY VISIBILITY DROPS THERE DUE TO SNOW WITH THE HIGHER CHANCES
BEING IN IOWA/ILLINOIS. CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME MVFR CEILINGS AT
MSN...BUT EXPECT THAT IT WILL MORE LIKELY STAY VFR. WINDS WILL BE
ON THE LIGHT SIDE TODAY BEFORE SWITCHING AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST
LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

MARINE...THE MAIN CONCERNS FOR OVER THE LAKE ARE FOR THE FRIDAY
INTO EARLY SATURDAY PERIOD AFTER A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES AREA. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
PUSHING DOWN INTO THE HIGH PLAINS AND WILL CREATE A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. OFF SHORE NORTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THE SUSTAINED 20KT-GUST 30KT RANGE...
PARTICULARLY FRIDAY NIGHT. SO...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE
NEEDED FOR THIS PERIOD ONCE IT GETS A LITTLE CLOSER. ALSO...THE
COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS...WAVES OVER 4 FEET...AND COLD AIR
MOVING ACROSS THE LAKE WILL LEAD TO SOME MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY
OVER THIS PERIOD.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MARQUARDT
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HALBACH
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...COLLAR





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