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000
FXUS63 KMKX 250841
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
341 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

THE FOCUS THIS MORNING IS ON THE TRACK AND TIMING OF A MID LEVEL
SHORT WAVE TROF AXIS CURRENTLY STRETCHED FROM NE KS INTO NW MO. THIS
SHOULD GENERALLY MARK THE END OR SIGNIFICANT DIMINISHMENT OF THE
PRECIP AS THAT AXIS MOVES THROUGH SRN WISCONSIN THIS MORNING.
CURRENT TIMING HAS IT ALONG THE WI/IL BORDER BY 15Z AND NORTH OF OUR
CWA BORDER BY AROUND 18Z.  AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW/TROF WILL
PRECEDE THE UPPER SYSTEM BY A FEW HOURS AND WILL TRACK ACROSS OUR
WRN FORECAST AREA. THE ENHANCED FORCING/FRONTOGENESIS WITH THIS
FEATURE WILL BRING THE BETTER PRECIP AMOUNTS AND PROBABILITIES WEST
OF MADISON THIS MORNING.

WE SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST...
IN THE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE MID LEVEL TROF AND WITH 925MB TEMPS IN
THE 17-20C RANGE...WE SHOULD SEE SOME PLACES TOP 80F FOR HIGHS.  THE
AFTERNOON SHOULD GENERALLY BE DRY WITH THE PRECIP CHANCES RETURNING
TONIGHT AS ANOTHER TROF APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. STRONGER
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ACROSS IOWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AND SOME OF THAT ACTIVITY COULD DRIFT INTO OUR WESTERN CWA LATER IN
THE EVENING AND AFTER MIDNIGHT. SUPPORT FOR THE STRONG STUFF SHOULD
GENERALLY BE LACKING ONCE THEY GET INTO WISCONSIN HOWEVER.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

A POTENT 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST
ON TUESDAY... COINCIDENT WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER
JET AND A SURFACE TROUGH. THE SURFACE FRONT WILL BE HUNG UP OVER
CENTRAL WI... SO THE WARMTH AND MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER
SOUTHEAST WI. MODERATE SHEAR AND STRENGTH OF UPPER LEVEL FORCING MAY
BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A FEW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. THE LIMITING
FACTOR IS THE AMOUNT OF CAPE DUE TO THE WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
THE NAM HAS THE HIGHEST CAPE OF THE MODELS.  THUS... SPC KEPT THE
SOUTHEAST MKX FORECAST AREA IN THE MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE.

CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL LIMIT THE HEATING ON TUESDAY... BUT HIGHS
SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO GET INTO THE MID 70S. THE WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR A LAKE BREEZE DURING THE AFTERNOON.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT AS
THE SURFACE AND UPPER TROUGHS MOVE OUT OF THE AREA. CLOUDS WILL BE
SLOW TO CLEAR... SO LOWS WILL REMAIN MODERATED IN THE UPPER 50S.

MODELS ARE TRENDING SLOWER WITH GETTING THAT 500MB TROUGH OUT OF THE
AREA. THUS... THE SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM
WILL LINGER THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING... FORECAST CONFIDENCE
MEDIUM.

THIS TIME PERIOD WILL FEATURE QUIET WEATHER WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF
UPPER AND SURFACE RIDGING TO ENJOY. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMAL IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 INLAND FROM LAKE MICHIGAN.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SET UP OVER THE WEST HALF OF THE
COUNTRY AND SEND ENERGY UP THROUGH WI ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH/
BAROCLINIC ZONE. THAT SURFACE TROUGH WILL SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THIS WILL LEAD TO MORE CONTINUOUS CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN WI LATE THIS WEEK.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW.

BY SUNDAY... THE ECMWF HAS THIS FRONT SOUTH OF THE WI/IL BORDER
WHILE THE GFS BRINGS IT BACK UP INTO WI DUE TO A MORE NORTHWARD
PLACEMENT OF A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE PLAINS. THEREFORE... THE
ECWMF KEEPS SOUTHERN WI DRY AND THE GFS HAS SEVERAL ROUNDS OF PRECIP
IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

LOOK FOR CIGS IN THE 1500-3000FT RANGE THROUGH ABOUT 15-16Z THIS
MORNING. ALTHOUGH KMSN WILL BE RIGHT ALONG THE LINE WHERE SOME IFR
CIGS BELOW 1KFT ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES.  A COMBINATION MID LEVEL
SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE LOW WILL BE LIFTING NORTH ACROSS SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING...BRINGING SHOWERS TO MUCH OF THE AREA.
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WOULD BE FROM MADISON WEST INTO IOWA AND
MINNESOTA...CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW TRACK.  WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
SOUTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING LOW AND THAT SHOULD SIGNAL
LIFTING CIGS THAT MAY EVEN SCATTER OUT THIS AFTERNOON. THE TAF SITES
SHOULD ALL BE VFR BY 16Z. THE AFTERNOON IS LOOKING DRY AND THAT WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN LATER THIS EVENING AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. WE COULD SEE MVFR CIGS RETURN BY 12Z TUE.

&&

.MARINE...

STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE HIGHEST WAVES WILL BE OUT TOWARD
OPEN WATER.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM CDT TUESDAY
     FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DAVIS
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MRC





000
FXUS63 KMKX 250841
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
341 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

THE FOCUS THIS MORNING IS ON THE TRACK AND TIMING OF A MID LEVEL
SHORT WAVE TROF AXIS CURRENTLY STRETCHED FROM NE KS INTO NW MO. THIS
SHOULD GENERALLY MARK THE END OR SIGNIFICANT DIMINISHMENT OF THE
PRECIP AS THAT AXIS MOVES THROUGH SRN WISCONSIN THIS MORNING.
CURRENT TIMING HAS IT ALONG THE WI/IL BORDER BY 15Z AND NORTH OF OUR
CWA BORDER BY AROUND 18Z.  AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW/TROF WILL
PRECEDE THE UPPER SYSTEM BY A FEW HOURS AND WILL TRACK ACROSS OUR
WRN FORECAST AREA. THE ENHANCED FORCING/FRONTOGENESIS WITH THIS
FEATURE WILL BRING THE BETTER PRECIP AMOUNTS AND PROBABILITIES WEST
OF MADISON THIS MORNING.

WE SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST...
IN THE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE MID LEVEL TROF AND WITH 925MB TEMPS IN
THE 17-20C RANGE...WE SHOULD SEE SOME PLACES TOP 80F FOR HIGHS.  THE
AFTERNOON SHOULD GENERALLY BE DRY WITH THE PRECIP CHANCES RETURNING
TONIGHT AS ANOTHER TROF APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. STRONGER
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ACROSS IOWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AND SOME OF THAT ACTIVITY COULD DRIFT INTO OUR WESTERN CWA LATER IN
THE EVENING AND AFTER MIDNIGHT. SUPPORT FOR THE STRONG STUFF SHOULD
GENERALLY BE LACKING ONCE THEY GET INTO WISCONSIN HOWEVER.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

A POTENT 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST
ON TUESDAY... COINCIDENT WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER
JET AND A SURFACE TROUGH. THE SURFACE FRONT WILL BE HUNG UP OVER
CENTRAL WI... SO THE WARMTH AND MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER
SOUTHEAST WI. MODERATE SHEAR AND STRENGTH OF UPPER LEVEL FORCING MAY
BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A FEW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. THE LIMITING
FACTOR IS THE AMOUNT OF CAPE DUE TO THE WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
THE NAM HAS THE HIGHEST CAPE OF THE MODELS.  THUS... SPC KEPT THE
SOUTHEAST MKX FORECAST AREA IN THE MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE.

CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL LIMIT THE HEATING ON TUESDAY... BUT HIGHS
SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO GET INTO THE MID 70S. THE WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR A LAKE BREEZE DURING THE AFTERNOON.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT AS
THE SURFACE AND UPPER TROUGHS MOVE OUT OF THE AREA. CLOUDS WILL BE
SLOW TO CLEAR... SO LOWS WILL REMAIN MODERATED IN THE UPPER 50S.

MODELS ARE TRENDING SLOWER WITH GETTING THAT 500MB TROUGH OUT OF THE
AREA. THUS... THE SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM
WILL LINGER THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING... FORECAST CONFIDENCE
MEDIUM.

THIS TIME PERIOD WILL FEATURE QUIET WEATHER WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF
UPPER AND SURFACE RIDGING TO ENJOY. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMAL IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 INLAND FROM LAKE MICHIGAN.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SET UP OVER THE WEST HALF OF THE
COUNTRY AND SEND ENERGY UP THROUGH WI ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH/
BAROCLINIC ZONE. THAT SURFACE TROUGH WILL SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THIS WILL LEAD TO MORE CONTINUOUS CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN WI LATE THIS WEEK.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW.

BY SUNDAY... THE ECMWF HAS THIS FRONT SOUTH OF THE WI/IL BORDER
WHILE THE GFS BRINGS IT BACK UP INTO WI DUE TO A MORE NORTHWARD
PLACEMENT OF A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE PLAINS. THEREFORE... THE
ECWMF KEEPS SOUTHERN WI DRY AND THE GFS HAS SEVERAL ROUNDS OF PRECIP
IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

LOOK FOR CIGS IN THE 1500-3000FT RANGE THROUGH ABOUT 15-16Z THIS
MORNING. ALTHOUGH KMSN WILL BE RIGHT ALONG THE LINE WHERE SOME IFR
CIGS BELOW 1KFT ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES.  A COMBINATION MID LEVEL
SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE LOW WILL BE LIFTING NORTH ACROSS SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING...BRINGING SHOWERS TO MUCH OF THE AREA.
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WOULD BE FROM MADISON WEST INTO IOWA AND
MINNESOTA...CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW TRACK.  WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
SOUTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING LOW AND THAT SHOULD SIGNAL
LIFTING CIGS THAT MAY EVEN SCATTER OUT THIS AFTERNOON. THE TAF SITES
SHOULD ALL BE VFR BY 16Z. THE AFTERNOON IS LOOKING DRY AND THAT WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN LATER THIS EVENING AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. WE COULD SEE MVFR CIGS RETURN BY 12Z TUE.

&&

.MARINE...

STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE HIGHEST WAVES WILL BE OUT TOWARD
OPEN WATER.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM CDT TUESDAY
     FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DAVIS
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MRC




000
FXUS63 KMKX 250254
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
954 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...LINES OF HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO STREAM NWD INTO SRN WI VIA THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT INTO
MON AM. THIS IS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH THAT IS
CURRENTLY OVER ERN KS AND ERN OK. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL ACCOMPANY THE
UPPER TROUGH REACHING THE VICINITY OF THE IA...MN...WI BORDER
AROUND 12Z. THUS THE RAINFALL WILL LIKELY BE MORE WIDESPREAD AND
INTENSE OVER THE WRN CWA AT THAT TIME. AS THE LOW SHIFTS INTO NRN
WI BY 18Z THE WINDS WILL SHIFT SWLY AND BECOME GUSTY. THIS WILL
MARK THE END OF THE RAIN THREAT AND BRING A WARM AND PARTLY CLOUDY
DAY.


&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...CIGS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WI WILL BE MAINLY
BELOW 1 KFT INTO MON AM WITH PREVAILING MVFR VSBYS BUT LOWER AT
TIMES IN HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS. PREVAILING CIGS WILL FALL TO 1-3
KFT OVER SE WI DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF MON WITH MVFR
VSBYS DEVELOPING AS WELL. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE LOWER AT TIMES IN
THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AS WELL. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH TO
NORTHEAST THROUGH ERN IA INTO NRN WI THROUGH MON AM BRINGING THE
RAIN BUT WILL SHIFT THE WINDS TO THE SW BTWN 13-16Z. THIS WILL
MARK THE END OF THE RAINFALL BUT ALSO BRING DRIER AND WARMER AIR
TO SRN WI. THUS PARTLY  CLOUDY SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON. LLWS IS EXPECTED EARLY MON AM DUE TO A
SSWLY 40-50 KT LLJ.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

TONIGHT AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

TRICKY FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. CURRENT AREA OF RAIN CONTINUES TO MOVE
NORTH NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA...DRIVEN BY 850 MB TO 700 MB
WARM AIR ADVECTION/LOW LEVEL JET NOSE. MESOSCALE MODELS HAVE THIS
AREA OF PRECIPITATION MOVING OUT OF THE AREA BY 00Z MONDAY.

HOWEVER...MORE CELLULAR SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND INTO SOUTHEAST IOWA/WEST CENTRAL
ILLINOIS. MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW THIS ACTIVITY INCREASING IN AREAL
COVERAGE AND SHIFTING INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING...LINGERING THROUGH
MOST OF THE EVENING. THIS IS OCCURRING AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH
THROUGH THE AREA. AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING JUST VERY
NARROW MEAN LAYER OR ELEVATED CAPE THROUGH THIS EVENING. THUS...WENT
WITH HIGHER END POPS FOR SHOWERS THIS EVENING...WITH ISOLATED
THUNDER.

MESOSCALE MODELS THEN INDICATE ANOTHER BATCH OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
STORMS FOR LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO
THE CONTINUED MOIST CONVEYOR BELT FLOW INTO THE REGION...AND A
STRONG 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM APPROACHING AND MOVING NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE AREA. THUS...WILL CONTINUE HIGHER END POPS FOR THIS
PERIOD IN THE FORECAST...CARRYING ISOLATED THUNDER.

MODELS THEN CONTINUE TO SHOW DRY SLOTTING OCCURRING ACROSS THE AREA
LATER MONDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. SO...WILL LEAN TOWARD A DRY
LOOK FOR THIS PERIOD.

STRONG MIXING WITH THE DRY SLOT WILL LEAD TO WINDY CONDITIONS.
SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD GUST IN THE 28 TO 34 KNOT RANGE DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WENT WITH A MIX OF THE GFS/NAM SOUNDINGS WITH THE GUSTS.
GFS INDICATED WIND ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS...BUT THOUGHT THEY WERE TOO
HIGH. PARTIAL CLEARING AND THE GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL LEAD TO
WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE 80 TO 83 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS MOST
AREAS...INCLUDING LAKESHORE LOCATIONS.

MONDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
SHORT WAVE RIDGING TAKES HOLD ON ALL MODELS EXCEPT THE
GEM...WHERE A SUSPICIOUSLY STRONG VORT ARRIVES BETWEEN 6-12Z. THE
LLJ IS LIFTING OUT PLACING THE CWA IN THE UNFAVORABLE ENTRANCE
REGION. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SHOW PRECIP DURING THE EVENING WITH
SOME BETTER LLVL CONVERGENCE COMBINED WITH LINGERING DIURNALLY
DRIVEN INSTABILITY. THE NAM SUGGESTS THAT CONVECTION COULD DRIFT
ACROSS THE CWA THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT ALONG SURFACE BOUNDARY.
THE OTHER MODELS SUGGEST A MORE ESTABLISHED SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH
LITTLE CONVERGENCE AND THE DEPARTING 850 JET CORE. WILL KEEP SOME
POPS GOING.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
ALL MODELS EXCEPT THE GEM BRING SHORTWAVE ENERGY NORTHEAST INTO
THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS ENERGY RIDES IN AHEAD
OF THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS ACROSS MN/IA. THIS TROUGH APPROACHES
DURING TUESDAY NIGHT. APPESRS BEST WINDOW FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL BE
18-06Z...WITH A DROPOFF AFTER 06Z. CAPE PROFILE APPEARS TALL AND
SKINNY ON THE NAM AND GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SO AT THIS TIME THE SVR
THREAT LOOKS LOW...WHICH IS IN LINE WITH SPC/S MARGINAL IDEA.

WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW
12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF SHOW A QUICKER PROGRESSION ON THE PRIMARY MID
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. MEANWHILE THE 12Z NAM/12Z GEM SHOW A SLOWER
MOVEMENT. IN THE LATTER CASE THIS RESULTS IN ANOTHER CHANCE OF
STORMS DUE TO THE FAVORABLE PLACEMENT OF THE TROUGH AXIS FOR RE-
ENERGIZING CONVECTION. IN THE GFS/ECMWF SCENARIO A QUIETER PERIOD
EVOLVES WITH SOME NVA AND WEAK SURFACE RIDGING. THE 12Z GFS/00Z
ECMWF SUGGEST THE QUIET TREND FROM WEDNESDAY WOULD CARRY OVER INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH AN EXTRAP OF 84 HR NAM SUGGESTING POTENTIAL
FOR SOME EARLY EVENING CONVECTION.

THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
WARM WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING BRIEFLY TAKING HOLD. 925 TEMPS AROUND
20C. SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL STAY OFF TO THE WEST
FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS. 12Z GFS DOES SHOW PRECIP INTO THE WESTERN
CWA AND SUPERBLEND ACCOUNTS FOR THIS SO WILL HAVE SMALL POPS FOR
NOW THERE BUT KEEP THE EAST LARGELY DRY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW
LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROGGD TO AFFECT THE
AREA THIS PERIOD. MAIN ISSUE CENTERS AROUND THE OVERALL TIMING.
THE GFS IS QUICKER TO BRING THIS FRONT INTO THE AREA...WHILE THE
ECMWF IS SLOWER TO BRING IT IN AND THEN LINGERS IT LONGER. IN FACT
THE GFS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE BY SATURDAY WHILE THE ECMWF
SHOWS A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING ACRS NRN IL WITH WIDESPREAD
PRECIP INTO SRN WI. FOR NOW WILL RIDE WITH THE SUPERBLEND POPS AND
HOPE FOR BETTER CONSENSUS IN FUTURE MODEL RUNS.

SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
BOTH MODELS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE EXERTING A GREATER INFLUENCE ACRS
WI. IN THE UPPER LEVELS THE GFS SHOWS SUSPISCIOUSLY STRONG VORTS
WELL NORTH OF KS CLOSED LOW. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS A SLIGHTLY
MORE OPEN SYSTEM WITH A MUCH CLEANER LOOKING VORT PATTERN. WILL
STEER TOWARDS THE LATTER.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...AREA OF RAIN WILL AFFECT TAF SITES THROUGH
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MAINLY VFR CATEGORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND EASTERLY. MORE SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS
SHOULD THEN MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING THE EVENING. CONTINUED
SHOWER MENTION IN TAFS DURING THIS TIME...AS A WARM FRONT MOVES
NORTH THROUGH THE AREA. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH LATER
TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

ANOTHER AREA OF RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD THEN PUSH INTO
THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING...WITH A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE. SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
DURING THIS PERIOD...AS SHORT TERM MODELS ARE QUITE AGGRESSIVE WITH
LOWERING THEM. FOR NOW...WILL LEAN TOWARDS MVFR CATEGORY CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES AT TAF SITES.

REMOVED LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR FROM TAFS TONIGHT...AS LOW LEVEL JET
MAY NOT BE AS STRONG AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. STILL...2000 FOOT LEVEL
WINDS SHOULD BE SOUTHWEST AT 30 TO 35 KNOTS.

WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT SOUTHWEST AND BECOME GUSTY DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS OF 28 TO 34 KNOTS POSSIBLE. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...WITH CEILINGS
SCATTERING OUT.

MARINE...HIGHER DEW POINTS MOVING INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
WILL MOVE OVER THE COOL LAKE MICHIGAN WATERS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
AREAS OF FOG FORMING TONIGHT...REMAINING PATCHY INTO MONDAY. SOME
QUESTION IF THE FOG WILL LINGER MONDAY...WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS
BATTLING MARINE INVERSION LAYER. DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY.

GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING...AS A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION. FREQUENT GUSTS
OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS DURING
THIS TIME...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE SHORELINE. THE GUSTS WILL BE A BIT
LOWER THAN OVER LAND...DUE TO THE MARINE INVERSION. THUS...A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THIS PERIOD. HIGHEST WAVES WILL BE
TOWARD THE OPEN WATERS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO 4 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR
     LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GEHRING
TONIGHT/MONDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...WOOD
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...COLLAR





000
FXUS63 KMKX 250254
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
954 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...LINES OF HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO STREAM NWD INTO SRN WI VIA THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT INTO
MON AM. THIS IS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH THAT IS
CURRENTLY OVER ERN KS AND ERN OK. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL ACCOMPANY THE
UPPER TROUGH REACHING THE VICINITY OF THE IA...MN...WI BORDER
AROUND 12Z. THUS THE RAINFALL WILL LIKELY BE MORE WIDESPREAD AND
INTENSE OVER THE WRN CWA AT THAT TIME. AS THE LOW SHIFTS INTO NRN
WI BY 18Z THE WINDS WILL SHIFT SWLY AND BECOME GUSTY. THIS WILL
MARK THE END OF THE RAIN THREAT AND BRING A WARM AND PARTLY CLOUDY
DAY.


&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...CIGS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WI WILL BE MAINLY
BELOW 1 KFT INTO MON AM WITH PREVAILING MVFR VSBYS BUT LOWER AT
TIMES IN HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS. PREVAILING CIGS WILL FALL TO 1-3
KFT OVER SE WI DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF MON WITH MVFR
VSBYS DEVELOPING AS WELL. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE LOWER AT TIMES IN
THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AS WELL. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH TO
NORTHEAST THROUGH ERN IA INTO NRN WI THROUGH MON AM BRINGING THE
RAIN BUT WILL SHIFT THE WINDS TO THE SW BTWN 13-16Z. THIS WILL
MARK THE END OF THE RAINFALL BUT ALSO BRING DRIER AND WARMER AIR
TO SRN WI. THUS PARTLY  CLOUDY SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON. LLWS IS EXPECTED EARLY MON AM DUE TO A
SSWLY 40-50 KT LLJ.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

TONIGHT AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

TRICKY FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. CURRENT AREA OF RAIN CONTINUES TO MOVE
NORTH NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA...DRIVEN BY 850 MB TO 700 MB
WARM AIR ADVECTION/LOW LEVEL JET NOSE. MESOSCALE MODELS HAVE THIS
AREA OF PRECIPITATION MOVING OUT OF THE AREA BY 00Z MONDAY.

HOWEVER...MORE CELLULAR SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND INTO SOUTHEAST IOWA/WEST CENTRAL
ILLINOIS. MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW THIS ACTIVITY INCREASING IN AREAL
COVERAGE AND SHIFTING INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING...LINGERING THROUGH
MOST OF THE EVENING. THIS IS OCCURRING AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH
THROUGH THE AREA. AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING JUST VERY
NARROW MEAN LAYER OR ELEVATED CAPE THROUGH THIS EVENING. THUS...WENT
WITH HIGHER END POPS FOR SHOWERS THIS EVENING...WITH ISOLATED
THUNDER.

MESOSCALE MODELS THEN INDICATE ANOTHER BATCH OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
STORMS FOR LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO
THE CONTINUED MOIST CONVEYOR BELT FLOW INTO THE REGION...AND A
STRONG 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM APPROACHING AND MOVING NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE AREA. THUS...WILL CONTINUE HIGHER END POPS FOR THIS
PERIOD IN THE FORECAST...CARRYING ISOLATED THUNDER.

MODELS THEN CONTINUE TO SHOW DRY SLOTTING OCCURRING ACROSS THE AREA
LATER MONDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. SO...WILL LEAN TOWARD A DRY
LOOK FOR THIS PERIOD.

STRONG MIXING WITH THE DRY SLOT WILL LEAD TO WINDY CONDITIONS.
SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD GUST IN THE 28 TO 34 KNOT RANGE DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WENT WITH A MIX OF THE GFS/NAM SOUNDINGS WITH THE GUSTS.
GFS INDICATED WIND ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS...BUT THOUGHT THEY WERE TOO
HIGH. PARTIAL CLEARING AND THE GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL LEAD TO
WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE 80 TO 83 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS MOST
AREAS...INCLUDING LAKESHORE LOCATIONS.

MONDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
SHORT WAVE RIDGING TAKES HOLD ON ALL MODELS EXCEPT THE
GEM...WHERE A SUSPICIOUSLY STRONG VORT ARRIVES BETWEEN 6-12Z. THE
LLJ IS LIFTING OUT PLACING THE CWA IN THE UNFAVORABLE ENTRANCE
REGION. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SHOW PRECIP DURING THE EVENING WITH
SOME BETTER LLVL CONVERGENCE COMBINED WITH LINGERING DIURNALLY
DRIVEN INSTABILITY. THE NAM SUGGESTS THAT CONVECTION COULD DRIFT
ACROSS THE CWA THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT ALONG SURFACE BOUNDARY.
THE OTHER MODELS SUGGEST A MORE ESTABLISHED SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH
LITTLE CONVERGENCE AND THE DEPARTING 850 JET CORE. WILL KEEP SOME
POPS GOING.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
ALL MODELS EXCEPT THE GEM BRING SHORTWAVE ENERGY NORTHEAST INTO
THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS ENERGY RIDES IN AHEAD
OF THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS ACROSS MN/IA. THIS TROUGH APPROACHES
DURING TUESDAY NIGHT. APPESRS BEST WINDOW FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL BE
18-06Z...WITH A DROPOFF AFTER 06Z. CAPE PROFILE APPEARS TALL AND
SKINNY ON THE NAM AND GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SO AT THIS TIME THE SVR
THREAT LOOKS LOW...WHICH IS IN LINE WITH SPC/S MARGINAL IDEA.

WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW
12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF SHOW A QUICKER PROGRESSION ON THE PRIMARY MID
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. MEANWHILE THE 12Z NAM/12Z GEM SHOW A SLOWER
MOVEMENT. IN THE LATTER CASE THIS RESULTS IN ANOTHER CHANCE OF
STORMS DUE TO THE FAVORABLE PLACEMENT OF THE TROUGH AXIS FOR RE-
ENERGIZING CONVECTION. IN THE GFS/ECMWF SCENARIO A QUIETER PERIOD
EVOLVES WITH SOME NVA AND WEAK SURFACE RIDGING. THE 12Z GFS/00Z
ECMWF SUGGEST THE QUIET TREND FROM WEDNESDAY WOULD CARRY OVER INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH AN EXTRAP OF 84 HR NAM SUGGESTING POTENTIAL
FOR SOME EARLY EVENING CONVECTION.

THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
WARM WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING BRIEFLY TAKING HOLD. 925 TEMPS AROUND
20C. SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL STAY OFF TO THE WEST
FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS. 12Z GFS DOES SHOW PRECIP INTO THE WESTERN
CWA AND SUPERBLEND ACCOUNTS FOR THIS SO WILL HAVE SMALL POPS FOR
NOW THERE BUT KEEP THE EAST LARGELY DRY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW
LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROGGD TO AFFECT THE
AREA THIS PERIOD. MAIN ISSUE CENTERS AROUND THE OVERALL TIMING.
THE GFS IS QUICKER TO BRING THIS FRONT INTO THE AREA...WHILE THE
ECMWF IS SLOWER TO BRING IT IN AND THEN LINGERS IT LONGER. IN FACT
THE GFS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE BY SATURDAY WHILE THE ECMWF
SHOWS A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING ACRS NRN IL WITH WIDESPREAD
PRECIP INTO SRN WI. FOR NOW WILL RIDE WITH THE SUPERBLEND POPS AND
HOPE FOR BETTER CONSENSUS IN FUTURE MODEL RUNS.

SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
BOTH MODELS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE EXERTING A GREATER INFLUENCE ACRS
WI. IN THE UPPER LEVELS THE GFS SHOWS SUSPISCIOUSLY STRONG VORTS
WELL NORTH OF KS CLOSED LOW. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS A SLIGHTLY
MORE OPEN SYSTEM WITH A MUCH CLEANER LOOKING VORT PATTERN. WILL
STEER TOWARDS THE LATTER.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...AREA OF RAIN WILL AFFECT TAF SITES THROUGH
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MAINLY VFR CATEGORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND EASTERLY. MORE SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS
SHOULD THEN MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING THE EVENING. CONTINUED
SHOWER MENTION IN TAFS DURING THIS TIME...AS A WARM FRONT MOVES
NORTH THROUGH THE AREA. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH LATER
TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

ANOTHER AREA OF RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD THEN PUSH INTO
THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING...WITH A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE. SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
DURING THIS PERIOD...AS SHORT TERM MODELS ARE QUITE AGGRESSIVE WITH
LOWERING THEM. FOR NOW...WILL LEAN TOWARDS MVFR CATEGORY CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES AT TAF SITES.

REMOVED LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR FROM TAFS TONIGHT...AS LOW LEVEL JET
MAY NOT BE AS STRONG AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. STILL...2000 FOOT LEVEL
WINDS SHOULD BE SOUTHWEST AT 30 TO 35 KNOTS.

WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT SOUTHWEST AND BECOME GUSTY DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS OF 28 TO 34 KNOTS POSSIBLE. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...WITH CEILINGS
SCATTERING OUT.

MARINE...HIGHER DEW POINTS MOVING INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
WILL MOVE OVER THE COOL LAKE MICHIGAN WATERS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
AREAS OF FOG FORMING TONIGHT...REMAINING PATCHY INTO MONDAY. SOME
QUESTION IF THE FOG WILL LINGER MONDAY...WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS
BATTLING MARINE INVERSION LAYER. DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY.

GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING...AS A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION. FREQUENT GUSTS
OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS DURING
THIS TIME...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE SHORELINE. THE GUSTS WILL BE A BIT
LOWER THAN OVER LAND...DUE TO THE MARINE INVERSION. THUS...A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THIS PERIOD. HIGHEST WAVES WILL BE
TOWARD THE OPEN WATERS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO 4 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR
     LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GEHRING
TONIGHT/MONDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...WOOD
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...COLLAR




000
FXUS63 KMKX 250254
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
954 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...LINES OF HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO STREAM NWD INTO SRN WI VIA THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT INTO
MON AM. THIS IS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH THAT IS
CURRENTLY OVER ERN KS AND ERN OK. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL ACCOMPANY THE
UPPER TROUGH REACHING THE VICINITY OF THE IA...MN...WI BORDER
AROUND 12Z. THUS THE RAINFALL WILL LIKELY BE MORE WIDESPREAD AND
INTENSE OVER THE WRN CWA AT THAT TIME. AS THE LOW SHIFTS INTO NRN
WI BY 18Z THE WINDS WILL SHIFT SWLY AND BECOME GUSTY. THIS WILL
MARK THE END OF THE RAIN THREAT AND BRING A WARM AND PARTLY CLOUDY
DAY.


&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...CIGS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WI WILL BE MAINLY
BELOW 1 KFT INTO MON AM WITH PREVAILING MVFR VSBYS BUT LOWER AT
TIMES IN HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS. PREVAILING CIGS WILL FALL TO 1-3
KFT OVER SE WI DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF MON WITH MVFR
VSBYS DEVELOPING AS WELL. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE LOWER AT TIMES IN
THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AS WELL. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH TO
NORTHEAST THROUGH ERN IA INTO NRN WI THROUGH MON AM BRINGING THE
RAIN BUT WILL SHIFT THE WINDS TO THE SW BTWN 13-16Z. THIS WILL
MARK THE END OF THE RAINFALL BUT ALSO BRING DRIER AND WARMER AIR
TO SRN WI. THUS PARTLY  CLOUDY SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON. LLWS IS EXPECTED EARLY MON AM DUE TO A
SSWLY 40-50 KT LLJ.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

TONIGHT AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

TRICKY FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. CURRENT AREA OF RAIN CONTINUES TO MOVE
NORTH NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA...DRIVEN BY 850 MB TO 700 MB
WARM AIR ADVECTION/LOW LEVEL JET NOSE. MESOSCALE MODELS HAVE THIS
AREA OF PRECIPITATION MOVING OUT OF THE AREA BY 00Z MONDAY.

HOWEVER...MORE CELLULAR SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND INTO SOUTHEAST IOWA/WEST CENTRAL
ILLINOIS. MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW THIS ACTIVITY INCREASING IN AREAL
COVERAGE AND SHIFTING INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING...LINGERING THROUGH
MOST OF THE EVENING. THIS IS OCCURRING AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH
THROUGH THE AREA. AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING JUST VERY
NARROW MEAN LAYER OR ELEVATED CAPE THROUGH THIS EVENING. THUS...WENT
WITH HIGHER END POPS FOR SHOWERS THIS EVENING...WITH ISOLATED
THUNDER.

MESOSCALE MODELS THEN INDICATE ANOTHER BATCH OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
STORMS FOR LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO
THE CONTINUED MOIST CONVEYOR BELT FLOW INTO THE REGION...AND A
STRONG 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM APPROACHING AND MOVING NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE AREA. THUS...WILL CONTINUE HIGHER END POPS FOR THIS
PERIOD IN THE FORECAST...CARRYING ISOLATED THUNDER.

MODELS THEN CONTINUE TO SHOW DRY SLOTTING OCCURRING ACROSS THE AREA
LATER MONDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. SO...WILL LEAN TOWARD A DRY
LOOK FOR THIS PERIOD.

STRONG MIXING WITH THE DRY SLOT WILL LEAD TO WINDY CONDITIONS.
SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD GUST IN THE 28 TO 34 KNOT RANGE DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WENT WITH A MIX OF THE GFS/NAM SOUNDINGS WITH THE GUSTS.
GFS INDICATED WIND ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS...BUT THOUGHT THEY WERE TOO
HIGH. PARTIAL CLEARING AND THE GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL LEAD TO
WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE 80 TO 83 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS MOST
AREAS...INCLUDING LAKESHORE LOCATIONS.

MONDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
SHORT WAVE RIDGING TAKES HOLD ON ALL MODELS EXCEPT THE
GEM...WHERE A SUSPICIOUSLY STRONG VORT ARRIVES BETWEEN 6-12Z. THE
LLJ IS LIFTING OUT PLACING THE CWA IN THE UNFAVORABLE ENTRANCE
REGION. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SHOW PRECIP DURING THE EVENING WITH
SOME BETTER LLVL CONVERGENCE COMBINED WITH LINGERING DIURNALLY
DRIVEN INSTABILITY. THE NAM SUGGESTS THAT CONVECTION COULD DRIFT
ACROSS THE CWA THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT ALONG SURFACE BOUNDARY.
THE OTHER MODELS SUGGEST A MORE ESTABLISHED SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH
LITTLE CONVERGENCE AND THE DEPARTING 850 JET CORE. WILL KEEP SOME
POPS GOING.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
ALL MODELS EXCEPT THE GEM BRING SHORTWAVE ENERGY NORTHEAST INTO
THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS ENERGY RIDES IN AHEAD
OF THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS ACROSS MN/IA. THIS TROUGH APPROACHES
DURING TUESDAY NIGHT. APPESRS BEST WINDOW FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL BE
18-06Z...WITH A DROPOFF AFTER 06Z. CAPE PROFILE APPEARS TALL AND
SKINNY ON THE NAM AND GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SO AT THIS TIME THE SVR
THREAT LOOKS LOW...WHICH IS IN LINE WITH SPC/S MARGINAL IDEA.

WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW
12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF SHOW A QUICKER PROGRESSION ON THE PRIMARY MID
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. MEANWHILE THE 12Z NAM/12Z GEM SHOW A SLOWER
MOVEMENT. IN THE LATTER CASE THIS RESULTS IN ANOTHER CHANCE OF
STORMS DUE TO THE FAVORABLE PLACEMENT OF THE TROUGH AXIS FOR RE-
ENERGIZING CONVECTION. IN THE GFS/ECMWF SCENARIO A QUIETER PERIOD
EVOLVES WITH SOME NVA AND WEAK SURFACE RIDGING. THE 12Z GFS/00Z
ECMWF SUGGEST THE QUIET TREND FROM WEDNESDAY WOULD CARRY OVER INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH AN EXTRAP OF 84 HR NAM SUGGESTING POTENTIAL
FOR SOME EARLY EVENING CONVECTION.

THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
WARM WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING BRIEFLY TAKING HOLD. 925 TEMPS AROUND
20C. SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL STAY OFF TO THE WEST
FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS. 12Z GFS DOES SHOW PRECIP INTO THE WESTERN
CWA AND SUPERBLEND ACCOUNTS FOR THIS SO WILL HAVE SMALL POPS FOR
NOW THERE BUT KEEP THE EAST LARGELY DRY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW
LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROGGD TO AFFECT THE
AREA THIS PERIOD. MAIN ISSUE CENTERS AROUND THE OVERALL TIMING.
THE GFS IS QUICKER TO BRING THIS FRONT INTO THE AREA...WHILE THE
ECMWF IS SLOWER TO BRING IT IN AND THEN LINGERS IT LONGER. IN FACT
THE GFS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE BY SATURDAY WHILE THE ECMWF
SHOWS A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING ACRS NRN IL WITH WIDESPREAD
PRECIP INTO SRN WI. FOR NOW WILL RIDE WITH THE SUPERBLEND POPS AND
HOPE FOR BETTER CONSENSUS IN FUTURE MODEL RUNS.

SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
BOTH MODELS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE EXERTING A GREATER INFLUENCE ACRS
WI. IN THE UPPER LEVELS THE GFS SHOWS SUSPISCIOUSLY STRONG VORTS
WELL NORTH OF KS CLOSED LOW. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS A SLIGHTLY
MORE OPEN SYSTEM WITH A MUCH CLEANER LOOKING VORT PATTERN. WILL
STEER TOWARDS THE LATTER.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...AREA OF RAIN WILL AFFECT TAF SITES THROUGH
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MAINLY VFR CATEGORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND EASTERLY. MORE SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS
SHOULD THEN MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING THE EVENING. CONTINUED
SHOWER MENTION IN TAFS DURING THIS TIME...AS A WARM FRONT MOVES
NORTH THROUGH THE AREA. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH LATER
TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

ANOTHER AREA OF RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD THEN PUSH INTO
THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING...WITH A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE. SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
DURING THIS PERIOD...AS SHORT TERM MODELS ARE QUITE AGGRESSIVE WITH
LOWERING THEM. FOR NOW...WILL LEAN TOWARDS MVFR CATEGORY CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES AT TAF SITES.

REMOVED LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR FROM TAFS TONIGHT...AS LOW LEVEL JET
MAY NOT BE AS STRONG AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. STILL...2000 FOOT LEVEL
WINDS SHOULD BE SOUTHWEST AT 30 TO 35 KNOTS.

WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT SOUTHWEST AND BECOME GUSTY DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS OF 28 TO 34 KNOTS POSSIBLE. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...WITH CEILINGS
SCATTERING OUT.

MARINE...HIGHER DEW POINTS MOVING INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
WILL MOVE OVER THE COOL LAKE MICHIGAN WATERS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
AREAS OF FOG FORMING TONIGHT...REMAINING PATCHY INTO MONDAY. SOME
QUESTION IF THE FOG WILL LINGER MONDAY...WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS
BATTLING MARINE INVERSION LAYER. DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY.

GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING...AS A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION. FREQUENT GUSTS
OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS DURING
THIS TIME...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE SHORELINE. THE GUSTS WILL BE A BIT
LOWER THAN OVER LAND...DUE TO THE MARINE INVERSION. THUS...A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THIS PERIOD. HIGHEST WAVES WILL BE
TOWARD THE OPEN WATERS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO 4 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR
     LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GEHRING
TONIGHT/MONDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...WOOD
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...COLLAR




000
FXUS63 KMKX 250254
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
954 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...LINES OF HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO STREAM NWD INTO SRN WI VIA THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT INTO
MON AM. THIS IS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH THAT IS
CURRENTLY OVER ERN KS AND ERN OK. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL ACCOMPANY THE
UPPER TROUGH REACHING THE VICINITY OF THE IA...MN...WI BORDER
AROUND 12Z. THUS THE RAINFALL WILL LIKELY BE MORE WIDESPREAD AND
INTENSE OVER THE WRN CWA AT THAT TIME. AS THE LOW SHIFTS INTO NRN
WI BY 18Z THE WINDS WILL SHIFT SWLY AND BECOME GUSTY. THIS WILL
MARK THE END OF THE RAIN THREAT AND BRING A WARM AND PARTLY CLOUDY
DAY.


&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...CIGS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WI WILL BE MAINLY
BELOW 1 KFT INTO MON AM WITH PREVAILING MVFR VSBYS BUT LOWER AT
TIMES IN HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS. PREVAILING CIGS WILL FALL TO 1-3
KFT OVER SE WI DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF MON WITH MVFR
VSBYS DEVELOPING AS WELL. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE LOWER AT TIMES IN
THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AS WELL. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH TO
NORTHEAST THROUGH ERN IA INTO NRN WI THROUGH MON AM BRINGING THE
RAIN BUT WILL SHIFT THE WINDS TO THE SW BTWN 13-16Z. THIS WILL
MARK THE END OF THE RAINFALL BUT ALSO BRING DRIER AND WARMER AIR
TO SRN WI. THUS PARTLY  CLOUDY SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON. LLWS IS EXPECTED EARLY MON AM DUE TO A
SSWLY 40-50 KT LLJ.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

TONIGHT AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

TRICKY FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. CURRENT AREA OF RAIN CONTINUES TO MOVE
NORTH NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA...DRIVEN BY 850 MB TO 700 MB
WARM AIR ADVECTION/LOW LEVEL JET NOSE. MESOSCALE MODELS HAVE THIS
AREA OF PRECIPITATION MOVING OUT OF THE AREA BY 00Z MONDAY.

HOWEVER...MORE CELLULAR SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND INTO SOUTHEAST IOWA/WEST CENTRAL
ILLINOIS. MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW THIS ACTIVITY INCREASING IN AREAL
COVERAGE AND SHIFTING INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING...LINGERING THROUGH
MOST OF THE EVENING. THIS IS OCCURRING AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH
THROUGH THE AREA. AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING JUST VERY
NARROW MEAN LAYER OR ELEVATED CAPE THROUGH THIS EVENING. THUS...WENT
WITH HIGHER END POPS FOR SHOWERS THIS EVENING...WITH ISOLATED
THUNDER.

MESOSCALE MODELS THEN INDICATE ANOTHER BATCH OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
STORMS FOR LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO
THE CONTINUED MOIST CONVEYOR BELT FLOW INTO THE REGION...AND A
STRONG 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM APPROACHING AND MOVING NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE AREA. THUS...WILL CONTINUE HIGHER END POPS FOR THIS
PERIOD IN THE FORECAST...CARRYING ISOLATED THUNDER.

MODELS THEN CONTINUE TO SHOW DRY SLOTTING OCCURRING ACROSS THE AREA
LATER MONDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. SO...WILL LEAN TOWARD A DRY
LOOK FOR THIS PERIOD.

STRONG MIXING WITH THE DRY SLOT WILL LEAD TO WINDY CONDITIONS.
SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD GUST IN THE 28 TO 34 KNOT RANGE DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WENT WITH A MIX OF THE GFS/NAM SOUNDINGS WITH THE GUSTS.
GFS INDICATED WIND ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS...BUT THOUGHT THEY WERE TOO
HIGH. PARTIAL CLEARING AND THE GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL LEAD TO
WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE 80 TO 83 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS MOST
AREAS...INCLUDING LAKESHORE LOCATIONS.

MONDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
SHORT WAVE RIDGING TAKES HOLD ON ALL MODELS EXCEPT THE
GEM...WHERE A SUSPICIOUSLY STRONG VORT ARRIVES BETWEEN 6-12Z. THE
LLJ IS LIFTING OUT PLACING THE CWA IN THE UNFAVORABLE ENTRANCE
REGION. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SHOW PRECIP DURING THE EVENING WITH
SOME BETTER LLVL CONVERGENCE COMBINED WITH LINGERING DIURNALLY
DRIVEN INSTABILITY. THE NAM SUGGESTS THAT CONVECTION COULD DRIFT
ACROSS THE CWA THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT ALONG SURFACE BOUNDARY.
THE OTHER MODELS SUGGEST A MORE ESTABLISHED SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH
LITTLE CONVERGENCE AND THE DEPARTING 850 JET CORE. WILL KEEP SOME
POPS GOING.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
ALL MODELS EXCEPT THE GEM BRING SHORTWAVE ENERGY NORTHEAST INTO
THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS ENERGY RIDES IN AHEAD
OF THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS ACROSS MN/IA. THIS TROUGH APPROACHES
DURING TUESDAY NIGHT. APPESRS BEST WINDOW FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL BE
18-06Z...WITH A DROPOFF AFTER 06Z. CAPE PROFILE APPEARS TALL AND
SKINNY ON THE NAM AND GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SO AT THIS TIME THE SVR
THREAT LOOKS LOW...WHICH IS IN LINE WITH SPC/S MARGINAL IDEA.

WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW
12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF SHOW A QUICKER PROGRESSION ON THE PRIMARY MID
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. MEANWHILE THE 12Z NAM/12Z GEM SHOW A SLOWER
MOVEMENT. IN THE LATTER CASE THIS RESULTS IN ANOTHER CHANCE OF
STORMS DUE TO THE FAVORABLE PLACEMENT OF THE TROUGH AXIS FOR RE-
ENERGIZING CONVECTION. IN THE GFS/ECMWF SCENARIO A QUIETER PERIOD
EVOLVES WITH SOME NVA AND WEAK SURFACE RIDGING. THE 12Z GFS/00Z
ECMWF SUGGEST THE QUIET TREND FROM WEDNESDAY WOULD CARRY OVER INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH AN EXTRAP OF 84 HR NAM SUGGESTING POTENTIAL
FOR SOME EARLY EVENING CONVECTION.

THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
WARM WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING BRIEFLY TAKING HOLD. 925 TEMPS AROUND
20C. SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL STAY OFF TO THE WEST
FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS. 12Z GFS DOES SHOW PRECIP INTO THE WESTERN
CWA AND SUPERBLEND ACCOUNTS FOR THIS SO WILL HAVE SMALL POPS FOR
NOW THERE BUT KEEP THE EAST LARGELY DRY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW
LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROGGD TO AFFECT THE
AREA THIS PERIOD. MAIN ISSUE CENTERS AROUND THE OVERALL TIMING.
THE GFS IS QUICKER TO BRING THIS FRONT INTO THE AREA...WHILE THE
ECMWF IS SLOWER TO BRING IT IN AND THEN LINGERS IT LONGER. IN FACT
THE GFS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE BY SATURDAY WHILE THE ECMWF
SHOWS A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING ACRS NRN IL WITH WIDESPREAD
PRECIP INTO SRN WI. FOR NOW WILL RIDE WITH THE SUPERBLEND POPS AND
HOPE FOR BETTER CONSENSUS IN FUTURE MODEL RUNS.

SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
BOTH MODELS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE EXERTING A GREATER INFLUENCE ACRS
WI. IN THE UPPER LEVELS THE GFS SHOWS SUSPISCIOUSLY STRONG VORTS
WELL NORTH OF KS CLOSED LOW. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS A SLIGHTLY
MORE OPEN SYSTEM WITH A MUCH CLEANER LOOKING VORT PATTERN. WILL
STEER TOWARDS THE LATTER.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...AREA OF RAIN WILL AFFECT TAF SITES THROUGH
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MAINLY VFR CATEGORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND EASTERLY. MORE SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS
SHOULD THEN MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING THE EVENING. CONTINUED
SHOWER MENTION IN TAFS DURING THIS TIME...AS A WARM FRONT MOVES
NORTH THROUGH THE AREA. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH LATER
TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

ANOTHER AREA OF RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD THEN PUSH INTO
THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING...WITH A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE. SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
DURING THIS PERIOD...AS SHORT TERM MODELS ARE QUITE AGGRESSIVE WITH
LOWERING THEM. FOR NOW...WILL LEAN TOWARDS MVFR CATEGORY CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES AT TAF SITES.

REMOVED LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR FROM TAFS TONIGHT...AS LOW LEVEL JET
MAY NOT BE AS STRONG AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. STILL...2000 FOOT LEVEL
WINDS SHOULD BE SOUTHWEST AT 30 TO 35 KNOTS.

WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT SOUTHWEST AND BECOME GUSTY DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS OF 28 TO 34 KNOTS POSSIBLE. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...WITH CEILINGS
SCATTERING OUT.

MARINE...HIGHER DEW POINTS MOVING INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
WILL MOVE OVER THE COOL LAKE MICHIGAN WATERS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
AREAS OF FOG FORMING TONIGHT...REMAINING PATCHY INTO MONDAY. SOME
QUESTION IF THE FOG WILL LINGER MONDAY...WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS
BATTLING MARINE INVERSION LAYER. DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY.

GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING...AS A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION. FREQUENT GUSTS
OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS DURING
THIS TIME...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE SHORELINE. THE GUSTS WILL BE A BIT
LOWER THAN OVER LAND...DUE TO THE MARINE INVERSION. THUS...A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THIS PERIOD. HIGHEST WAVES WILL BE
TOWARD THE OPEN WATERS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO 4 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR
     LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GEHRING
TONIGHT/MONDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...WOOD
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...COLLAR





000
FXUS63 KMKX 242031
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
331 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.TONIGHT AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

TRICKY FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. CURRENT AREA OF RAIN CONTINUES TO MOVE
NORTH NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA...DRIVEN BY 850 MB TO 700 MB
WARM AIR ADVECTION/LOW LEVEL JET NOSE. MESOSCALE MODELS HAVE THIS
AREA OF PRECIPITATION MOVING OUT OF THE AREA BY 00Z MONDAY.

HOWEVER...MORE CELLULAR SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND INTO SOUTHEAST IOWA/WEST CENTRAL
ILLINOIS. MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW THIS ACTIVITY INCREASING IN AREAL
COVERAGE AND SHIFTING INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING...LINGERING THROUGH
MOST OF THE EVENING. THIS IS OCCURRING AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH
THROUGH THE AREA. AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING JUST VERY
NARROW MEAN LAYER OR ELEVATED CAPE THROUGH THIS EVENING. THUS...WENT
WITH HIGHER END POPS FOR SHOWERS THIS EVENING...WITH ISOLATED
THUNDER.

MESOSCALE MODELS THEN INDICATE ANOTHER BATCH OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
STORMS FOR LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO
THE CONTINUED MOIST CONVEYOR BELT FLOW INTO THE REGION...AND A
STRONG 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM APPROACHING AND MOVING NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE AREA. THUS...WILL CONTINUE HIGHER END POPS FOR THIS
PERIOD IN THE FORECAST...CARRYING ISOLATED THUNDER.

MODELS THEN CONTINUE TO SHOW DRY SLOTTING OCCURRING ACROSS THE AREA
LATER MONDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. SO...WILL LEAN TOWARD A DRY
LOOK FOR THIS PERIOD.

STRONG MIXING WITH THE DRY SLOT WILL LEAD TO WINDY CONDITIONS.
SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD GUST IN THE 28 TO 34 KNOT RANGE DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WENT WITH A MIX OF THE GFS/NAM SOUNDINGS WITH THE GUSTS.
GFS INDICATED WIND ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS...BUT THOUGHT THEY WERE TOO
HIGH. PARTIAL CLEARING AND THE GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL LEAD TO
WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE 80 TO 83 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS MOST
AREAS...INCLUDING LAKESHORE LOCATIONS.

.MONDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
SHORT WAVE RIDGING TAKES HOLD ON ALL MODELS EXCEPT THE
GEM...WHERE A SUSPISCIOUSLY STRONG VORT ARRIVES BETWEEN 6-12Z. THE
LLJ IS LIFTING OUT PLACING THE CWA IN THE UNFAVORABLE ENTRANCE
REGION. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SHOW PRECIP DURING THE EVENING WITH
SOME BETTER LLVL CONVERGENCE COMBINED WITH LINGERING DIURNALLY
DRIVEN INSTABILITY. THE NAM SUGGESTS THAT CONVECTION COULD DRIFT
ACROSS THE CWA THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT ALONG SURFACE BOUNDARY.
THE OTHER MODELS SUGGEST A MORE ESTABLISHED SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH
LITTLE CONVERGENCE AND THE DEPARTING 850 JET CORE. WILL KEEP SOME
POPS GOING.

.TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
ALL MODELS EXCEPT THE GEM BRING SHORTWAVE ENERGY NORTHEAST INTO
THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS ENERGY RIDES IN AHEAD
OF THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS ACROSS MN/IA. THIS TROUGH APPROACHES
DURING TUESDAY NIGHT. APPESRS BEST WINDOW FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL BE
18-06Z...WITH A DROPOFF AFTER 06Z. CAPE PROFILE APPEARS TALL AND
SKINNY ON THE NAM AND GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SO AT THIS TIME THE SVR
THREAT LOOKS LOW...WHICH IS IN LINE WITH SPC/S MARGINAL IDEA.

.WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW
12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF SHOW A QUICKER PROGRESSION ON THE PRIMARY MID
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. MEANWHILE THE 12Z NAM/12Z GEM SHOW A SLOWER
MOVEMENT. IN THE LATTER CASE THIS RESULTS IN ANOTHER CHANCE OF
STORMS DUE TO THE FAVORABLE PLACEMENT OF THE TROUGH AXIS FOR RE-
ENERGIZING CONVECTION. IN THE GFS/ECMWF SCENARIO A QUIETER PERIOD
EVOLVES WITH SOME NVA AND WEAK SURFACE RIDGING. THE 12Z GFS/00Z
ECMWF SUGGEST THE QUIET TREND FROM WEDNESDAY WOULD CARRY OVER INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH AN EXTRAP OF 84 HR NAM SUGGESTING POTENTIAL
FOR SOME EARLY EVENING CONVECTIONS.

.THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
WARM WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING BRIEFLY TAKING HOLD. 925 TEMPS AROUND
20C. SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL STAY OFF TO THE WEST
FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS. 12Z GFS DOES SHOW PRECIP INTO THE WESTERN
CWA AND SUPERBLEND ACCOUNTS FOR THIS SO WILL HAVE SMALL POPS FOR
NOW THERE BUT KEEP THE EAST LARGELY DRY.

.THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW
LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROGGD TO AFFECT THE
AREA THIS PERIOD. MAIN ISSUE CENTERS AROUND THE OVERALL TIMING.
THE GFS IS QUICKER TO BRING THIS FRONT INTO THE AREA...WHILE THE
ECMWF IS SLOWER TO BRING IT IN AND THEN LINGERS IT LONGER. IN FACT
THE GFS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE BY SATURDAY WHILE THE ECMWF
SHOWS A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING ACRS NRN IL WITH WIDESPREAD
PRECIP INTO SRN WI. FOR NOW WILL RIDE WITH THE SUPERBLEND POPS AND
HOPE FOR BETTER CONSENSUS IN FUTURE MODEL RUNS.

.SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
BOTH MODELS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE EXERTING A GREATER INFLUENCE ACRS
WI. IN THE UPPER LEVELS THE GFS SHOWS SUSPISCIOUSLY STRONG VORTS
WELL NORTH OF KS CLOSED LOW. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS A SLIGHTLY
MORE OPEN SYSTEM WITH A MUCH CLEANER LOOKING VORT PATTERN. WILL
STEER TOWARDS THE LATTER.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...AREA OF RAIN WILL AFFECT TAF SITES THROUGH
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MAINLY VFR CATEGORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND EASTERLY. MORE SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS
SHOULD THEN MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING THE EVENING. CONTINUED
SHOWER MENTION IN TAFS DURING THIS TIME...AS A WARM FRONT MOVES
NORTH THROUGH THE AREA. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH LATER
TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

ANOTHER AREA OF RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD THEN PUSH INTO
THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING...WITH A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE. SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
DURING THIS PERIOD...AS SHORT TERM MODELS ARE QUITE AGGRESSIVE WITH
LOWERING THEM. FOR NOW...WILL LEAN TOWARDS MVFR CATEGORY CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES AT TAF SITES.

REMOVED LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR FROM TAFS TONIGHT...AS LOW LEVEL JET
MAY NOT BE AS STRONG AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. STILL...2000 FOOT LEVEL
WINDS SHOULD BE SOUTHWEST AT 30 TO 35 KNOTS.

WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT SOUTHWEST AND BECOME GUSTY DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS OF 28 TO 34 KNOTS POSSIBLE. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...WITH CEILINGS
SCATTERING OUT.

&&

.MARINE...HIGHER DEW POINTS MOVING INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
WILL MOVE OVER THE COOL LAKE MICHIGAN WATERS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
AREAS OF FOG FORMING TONIGHT...REMAINING PATCHY INTO MONDAY. SOME
QUESTION IF THE FOG WILL LINGER MONDAY...WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS
BATTLING MARINE INVERSION LAYER. DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY.

GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING...AS A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION. FREQUENT GUSTS
OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS DURING
THIS TIME...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE SHORELINE. THE GUSTS WILL BE A BIT
LOWER THAN OVER LAND...DUE TO THE MARINE INVERSION. THUS...A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THIS PERIOD. HIGHEST WAVES WILL BE
TOWARD THE OPEN WATERS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO 4 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR
     LMZ643>646.

&&

$$
TONIGHT/MONDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...WOOD
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...COLLAR




000
FXUS63 KMKX 242031
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
331 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.TONIGHT AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

TRICKY FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. CURRENT AREA OF RAIN CONTINUES TO MOVE
NORTH NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA...DRIVEN BY 850 MB TO 700 MB
WARM AIR ADVECTION/LOW LEVEL JET NOSE. MESOSCALE MODELS HAVE THIS
AREA OF PRECIPITATION MOVING OUT OF THE AREA BY 00Z MONDAY.

HOWEVER...MORE CELLULAR SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND INTO SOUTHEAST IOWA/WEST CENTRAL
ILLINOIS. MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW THIS ACTIVITY INCREASING IN AREAL
COVERAGE AND SHIFTING INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING...LINGERING THROUGH
MOST OF THE EVENING. THIS IS OCCURRING AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH
THROUGH THE AREA. AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING JUST VERY
NARROW MEAN LAYER OR ELEVATED CAPE THROUGH THIS EVENING. THUS...WENT
WITH HIGHER END POPS FOR SHOWERS THIS EVENING...WITH ISOLATED
THUNDER.

MESOSCALE MODELS THEN INDICATE ANOTHER BATCH OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
STORMS FOR LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO
THE CONTINUED MOIST CONVEYOR BELT FLOW INTO THE REGION...AND A
STRONG 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM APPROACHING AND MOVING NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE AREA. THUS...WILL CONTINUE HIGHER END POPS FOR THIS
PERIOD IN THE FORECAST...CARRYING ISOLATED THUNDER.

MODELS THEN CONTINUE TO SHOW DRY SLOTTING OCCURRING ACROSS THE AREA
LATER MONDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. SO...WILL LEAN TOWARD A DRY
LOOK FOR THIS PERIOD.

STRONG MIXING WITH THE DRY SLOT WILL LEAD TO WINDY CONDITIONS.
SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD GUST IN THE 28 TO 34 KNOT RANGE DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WENT WITH A MIX OF THE GFS/NAM SOUNDINGS WITH THE GUSTS.
GFS INDICATED WIND ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS...BUT THOUGHT THEY WERE TOO
HIGH. PARTIAL CLEARING AND THE GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL LEAD TO
WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE 80 TO 83 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS MOST
AREAS...INCLUDING LAKESHORE LOCATIONS.

.MONDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
SHORT WAVE RIDGING TAKES HOLD ON ALL MODELS EXCEPT THE
GEM...WHERE A SUSPISCIOUSLY STRONG VORT ARRIVES BETWEEN 6-12Z. THE
LLJ IS LIFTING OUT PLACING THE CWA IN THE UNFAVORABLE ENTRANCE
REGION. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SHOW PRECIP DURING THE EVENING WITH
SOME BETTER LLVL CONVERGENCE COMBINED WITH LINGERING DIURNALLY
DRIVEN INSTABILITY. THE NAM SUGGESTS THAT CONVECTION COULD DRIFT
ACROSS THE CWA THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT ALONG SURFACE BOUNDARY.
THE OTHER MODELS SUGGEST A MORE ESTABLISHED SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH
LITTLE CONVERGENCE AND THE DEPARTING 850 JET CORE. WILL KEEP SOME
POPS GOING.

.TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
ALL MODELS EXCEPT THE GEM BRING SHORTWAVE ENERGY NORTHEAST INTO
THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS ENERGY RIDES IN AHEAD
OF THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS ACROSS MN/IA. THIS TROUGH APPROACHES
DURING TUESDAY NIGHT. APPESRS BEST WINDOW FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL BE
18-06Z...WITH A DROPOFF AFTER 06Z. CAPE PROFILE APPEARS TALL AND
SKINNY ON THE NAM AND GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SO AT THIS TIME THE SVR
THREAT LOOKS LOW...WHICH IS IN LINE WITH SPC/S MARGINAL IDEA.

.WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW
12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF SHOW A QUICKER PROGRESSION ON THE PRIMARY MID
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. MEANWHILE THE 12Z NAM/12Z GEM SHOW A SLOWER
MOVEMENT. IN THE LATTER CASE THIS RESULTS IN ANOTHER CHANCE OF
STORMS DUE TO THE FAVORABLE PLACEMENT OF THE TROUGH AXIS FOR RE-
ENERGIZING CONVECTION. IN THE GFS/ECMWF SCENARIO A QUIETER PERIOD
EVOLVES WITH SOME NVA AND WEAK SURFACE RIDGING. THE 12Z GFS/00Z
ECMWF SUGGEST THE QUIET TREND FROM WEDNESDAY WOULD CARRY OVER INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH AN EXTRAP OF 84 HR NAM SUGGESTING POTENTIAL
FOR SOME EARLY EVENING CONVECTIONS.

.THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
WARM WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING BRIEFLY TAKING HOLD. 925 TEMPS AROUND
20C. SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL STAY OFF TO THE WEST
FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS. 12Z GFS DOES SHOW PRECIP INTO THE WESTERN
CWA AND SUPERBLEND ACCOUNTS FOR THIS SO WILL HAVE SMALL POPS FOR
NOW THERE BUT KEEP THE EAST LARGELY DRY.

.THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW
LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROGGD TO AFFECT THE
AREA THIS PERIOD. MAIN ISSUE CENTERS AROUND THE OVERALL TIMING.
THE GFS IS QUICKER TO BRING THIS FRONT INTO THE AREA...WHILE THE
ECMWF IS SLOWER TO BRING IT IN AND THEN LINGERS IT LONGER. IN FACT
THE GFS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE BY SATURDAY WHILE THE ECMWF
SHOWS A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING ACRS NRN IL WITH WIDESPREAD
PRECIP INTO SRN WI. FOR NOW WILL RIDE WITH THE SUPERBLEND POPS AND
HOPE FOR BETTER CONSENSUS IN FUTURE MODEL RUNS.

.SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
BOTH MODELS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE EXERTING A GREATER INFLUENCE ACRS
WI. IN THE UPPER LEVELS THE GFS SHOWS SUSPISCIOUSLY STRONG VORTS
WELL NORTH OF KS CLOSED LOW. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS A SLIGHTLY
MORE OPEN SYSTEM WITH A MUCH CLEANER LOOKING VORT PATTERN. WILL
STEER TOWARDS THE LATTER.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...AREA OF RAIN WILL AFFECT TAF SITES THROUGH
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MAINLY VFR CATEGORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND EASTERLY. MORE SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS
SHOULD THEN MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING THE EVENING. CONTINUED
SHOWER MENTION IN TAFS DURING THIS TIME...AS A WARM FRONT MOVES
NORTH THROUGH THE AREA. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH LATER
TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

ANOTHER AREA OF RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD THEN PUSH INTO
THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING...WITH A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE. SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
DURING THIS PERIOD...AS SHORT TERM MODELS ARE QUITE AGGRESSIVE WITH
LOWERING THEM. FOR NOW...WILL LEAN TOWARDS MVFR CATEGORY CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES AT TAF SITES.

REMOVED LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR FROM TAFS TONIGHT...AS LOW LEVEL JET
MAY NOT BE AS STRONG AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. STILL...2000 FOOT LEVEL
WINDS SHOULD BE SOUTHWEST AT 30 TO 35 KNOTS.

WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT SOUTHWEST AND BECOME GUSTY DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS OF 28 TO 34 KNOTS POSSIBLE. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...WITH CEILINGS
SCATTERING OUT.

&&

.MARINE...HIGHER DEW POINTS MOVING INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
WILL MOVE OVER THE COOL LAKE MICHIGAN WATERS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
AREAS OF FOG FORMING TONIGHT...REMAINING PATCHY INTO MONDAY. SOME
QUESTION IF THE FOG WILL LINGER MONDAY...WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS
BATTLING MARINE INVERSION LAYER. DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY.

GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING...AS A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION. FREQUENT GUSTS
OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS DURING
THIS TIME...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE SHORELINE. THE GUSTS WILL BE A BIT
LOWER THAN OVER LAND...DUE TO THE MARINE INVERSION. THUS...A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THIS PERIOD. HIGHEST WAVES WILL BE
TOWARD THE OPEN WATERS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO 4 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR
     LMZ643>646.

&&

$$
TONIGHT/MONDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...WOOD
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...COLLAR





000
FXUS63 KMKX 242031
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
331 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.TONIGHT AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

TRICKY FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. CURRENT AREA OF RAIN CONTINUES TO MOVE
NORTH NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA...DRIVEN BY 850 MB TO 700 MB
WARM AIR ADVECTION/LOW LEVEL JET NOSE. MESOSCALE MODELS HAVE THIS
AREA OF PRECIPITATION MOVING OUT OF THE AREA BY 00Z MONDAY.

HOWEVER...MORE CELLULAR SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND INTO SOUTHEAST IOWA/WEST CENTRAL
ILLINOIS. MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW THIS ACTIVITY INCREASING IN AREAL
COVERAGE AND SHIFTING INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING...LINGERING THROUGH
MOST OF THE EVENING. THIS IS OCCURRING AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH
THROUGH THE AREA. AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING JUST VERY
NARROW MEAN LAYER OR ELEVATED CAPE THROUGH THIS EVENING. THUS...WENT
WITH HIGHER END POPS FOR SHOWERS THIS EVENING...WITH ISOLATED
THUNDER.

MESOSCALE MODELS THEN INDICATE ANOTHER BATCH OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
STORMS FOR LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO
THE CONTINUED MOIST CONVEYOR BELT FLOW INTO THE REGION...AND A
STRONG 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM APPROACHING AND MOVING NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE AREA. THUS...WILL CONTINUE HIGHER END POPS FOR THIS
PERIOD IN THE FORECAST...CARRYING ISOLATED THUNDER.

MODELS THEN CONTINUE TO SHOW DRY SLOTTING OCCURRING ACROSS THE AREA
LATER MONDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. SO...WILL LEAN TOWARD A DRY
LOOK FOR THIS PERIOD.

STRONG MIXING WITH THE DRY SLOT WILL LEAD TO WINDY CONDITIONS.
SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD GUST IN THE 28 TO 34 KNOT RANGE DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WENT WITH A MIX OF THE GFS/NAM SOUNDINGS WITH THE GUSTS.
GFS INDICATED WIND ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS...BUT THOUGHT THEY WERE TOO
HIGH. PARTIAL CLEARING AND THE GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL LEAD TO
WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE 80 TO 83 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS MOST
AREAS...INCLUDING LAKESHORE LOCATIONS.

.MONDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
SHORT WAVE RIDGING TAKES HOLD ON ALL MODELS EXCEPT THE
GEM...WHERE A SUSPISCIOUSLY STRONG VORT ARRIVES BETWEEN 6-12Z. THE
LLJ IS LIFTING OUT PLACING THE CWA IN THE UNFAVORABLE ENTRANCE
REGION. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SHOW PRECIP DURING THE EVENING WITH
SOME BETTER LLVL CONVERGENCE COMBINED WITH LINGERING DIURNALLY
DRIVEN INSTABILITY. THE NAM SUGGESTS THAT CONVECTION COULD DRIFT
ACROSS THE CWA THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT ALONG SURFACE BOUNDARY.
THE OTHER MODELS SUGGEST A MORE ESTABLISHED SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH
LITTLE CONVERGENCE AND THE DEPARTING 850 JET CORE. WILL KEEP SOME
POPS GOING.

.TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
ALL MODELS EXCEPT THE GEM BRING SHORTWAVE ENERGY NORTHEAST INTO
THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS ENERGY RIDES IN AHEAD
OF THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS ACROSS MN/IA. THIS TROUGH APPROACHES
DURING TUESDAY NIGHT. APPESRS BEST WINDOW FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL BE
18-06Z...WITH A DROPOFF AFTER 06Z. CAPE PROFILE APPEARS TALL AND
SKINNY ON THE NAM AND GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SO AT THIS TIME THE SVR
THREAT LOOKS LOW...WHICH IS IN LINE WITH SPC/S MARGINAL IDEA.

.WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW
12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF SHOW A QUICKER PROGRESSION ON THE PRIMARY MID
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. MEANWHILE THE 12Z NAM/12Z GEM SHOW A SLOWER
MOVEMENT. IN THE LATTER CASE THIS RESULTS IN ANOTHER CHANCE OF
STORMS DUE TO THE FAVORABLE PLACEMENT OF THE TROUGH AXIS FOR RE-
ENERGIZING CONVECTION. IN THE GFS/ECMWF SCENARIO A QUIETER PERIOD
EVOLVES WITH SOME NVA AND WEAK SURFACE RIDGING. THE 12Z GFS/00Z
ECMWF SUGGEST THE QUIET TREND FROM WEDNESDAY WOULD CARRY OVER INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH AN EXTRAP OF 84 HR NAM SUGGESTING POTENTIAL
FOR SOME EARLY EVENING CONVECTIONS.

.THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
WARM WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING BRIEFLY TAKING HOLD. 925 TEMPS AROUND
20C. SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL STAY OFF TO THE WEST
FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS. 12Z GFS DOES SHOW PRECIP INTO THE WESTERN
CWA AND SUPERBLEND ACCOUNTS FOR THIS SO WILL HAVE SMALL POPS FOR
NOW THERE BUT KEEP THE EAST LARGELY DRY.

.THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW
LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROGGD TO AFFECT THE
AREA THIS PERIOD. MAIN ISSUE CENTERS AROUND THE OVERALL TIMING.
THE GFS IS QUICKER TO BRING THIS FRONT INTO THE AREA...WHILE THE
ECMWF IS SLOWER TO BRING IT IN AND THEN LINGERS IT LONGER. IN FACT
THE GFS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE BY SATURDAY WHILE THE ECMWF
SHOWS A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING ACRS NRN IL WITH WIDESPREAD
PRECIP INTO SRN WI. FOR NOW WILL RIDE WITH THE SUPERBLEND POPS AND
HOPE FOR BETTER CONSENSUS IN FUTURE MODEL RUNS.

.SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
BOTH MODELS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE EXERTING A GREATER INFLUENCE ACRS
WI. IN THE UPPER LEVELS THE GFS SHOWS SUSPISCIOUSLY STRONG VORTS
WELL NORTH OF KS CLOSED LOW. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS A SLIGHTLY
MORE OPEN SYSTEM WITH A MUCH CLEANER LOOKING VORT PATTERN. WILL
STEER TOWARDS THE LATTER.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...AREA OF RAIN WILL AFFECT TAF SITES THROUGH
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MAINLY VFR CATEGORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND EASTERLY. MORE SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS
SHOULD THEN MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING THE EVENING. CONTINUED
SHOWER MENTION IN TAFS DURING THIS TIME...AS A WARM FRONT MOVES
NORTH THROUGH THE AREA. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH LATER
TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

ANOTHER AREA OF RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD THEN PUSH INTO
THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING...WITH A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE. SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
DURING THIS PERIOD...AS SHORT TERM MODELS ARE QUITE AGGRESSIVE WITH
LOWERING THEM. FOR NOW...WILL LEAN TOWARDS MVFR CATEGORY CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES AT TAF SITES.

REMOVED LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR FROM TAFS TONIGHT...AS LOW LEVEL JET
MAY NOT BE AS STRONG AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. STILL...2000 FOOT LEVEL
WINDS SHOULD BE SOUTHWEST AT 30 TO 35 KNOTS.

WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT SOUTHWEST AND BECOME GUSTY DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS OF 28 TO 34 KNOTS POSSIBLE. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...WITH CEILINGS
SCATTERING OUT.

&&

.MARINE...HIGHER DEW POINTS MOVING INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
WILL MOVE OVER THE COOL LAKE MICHIGAN WATERS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
AREAS OF FOG FORMING TONIGHT...REMAINING PATCHY INTO MONDAY. SOME
QUESTION IF THE FOG WILL LINGER MONDAY...WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS
BATTLING MARINE INVERSION LAYER. DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY.

GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING...AS A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION. FREQUENT GUSTS
OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS DURING
THIS TIME...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE SHORELINE. THE GUSTS WILL BE A BIT
LOWER THAN OVER LAND...DUE TO THE MARINE INVERSION. THUS...A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THIS PERIOD. HIGHEST WAVES WILL BE
TOWARD THE OPEN WATERS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO 4 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR
     LMZ643>646.

&&

$$
TONIGHT/MONDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...WOOD
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...COLLAR





000
FXUS63 KMKX 242031
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
331 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.TONIGHT AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

TRICKY FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. CURRENT AREA OF RAIN CONTINUES TO MOVE
NORTH NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA...DRIVEN BY 850 MB TO 700 MB
WARM AIR ADVECTION/LOW LEVEL JET NOSE. MESOSCALE MODELS HAVE THIS
AREA OF PRECIPITATION MOVING OUT OF THE AREA BY 00Z MONDAY.

HOWEVER...MORE CELLULAR SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND INTO SOUTHEAST IOWA/WEST CENTRAL
ILLINOIS. MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW THIS ACTIVITY INCREASING IN AREAL
COVERAGE AND SHIFTING INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING...LINGERING THROUGH
MOST OF THE EVENING. THIS IS OCCURRING AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH
THROUGH THE AREA. AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING JUST VERY
NARROW MEAN LAYER OR ELEVATED CAPE THROUGH THIS EVENING. THUS...WENT
WITH HIGHER END POPS FOR SHOWERS THIS EVENING...WITH ISOLATED
THUNDER.

MESOSCALE MODELS THEN INDICATE ANOTHER BATCH OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
STORMS FOR LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO
THE CONTINUED MOIST CONVEYOR BELT FLOW INTO THE REGION...AND A
STRONG 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM APPROACHING AND MOVING NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE AREA. THUS...WILL CONTINUE HIGHER END POPS FOR THIS
PERIOD IN THE FORECAST...CARRYING ISOLATED THUNDER.

MODELS THEN CONTINUE TO SHOW DRY SLOTTING OCCURRING ACROSS THE AREA
LATER MONDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. SO...WILL LEAN TOWARD A DRY
LOOK FOR THIS PERIOD.

STRONG MIXING WITH THE DRY SLOT WILL LEAD TO WINDY CONDITIONS.
SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD GUST IN THE 28 TO 34 KNOT RANGE DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WENT WITH A MIX OF THE GFS/NAM SOUNDINGS WITH THE GUSTS.
GFS INDICATED WIND ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS...BUT THOUGHT THEY WERE TOO
HIGH. PARTIAL CLEARING AND THE GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL LEAD TO
WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE 80 TO 83 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS MOST
AREAS...INCLUDING LAKESHORE LOCATIONS.

.MONDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
SHORT WAVE RIDGING TAKES HOLD ON ALL MODELS EXCEPT THE
GEM...WHERE A SUSPISCIOUSLY STRONG VORT ARRIVES BETWEEN 6-12Z. THE
LLJ IS LIFTING OUT PLACING THE CWA IN THE UNFAVORABLE ENTRANCE
REGION. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SHOW PRECIP DURING THE EVENING WITH
SOME BETTER LLVL CONVERGENCE COMBINED WITH LINGERING DIURNALLY
DRIVEN INSTABILITY. THE NAM SUGGESTS THAT CONVECTION COULD DRIFT
ACROSS THE CWA THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT ALONG SURFACE BOUNDARY.
THE OTHER MODELS SUGGEST A MORE ESTABLISHED SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH
LITTLE CONVERGENCE AND THE DEPARTING 850 JET CORE. WILL KEEP SOME
POPS GOING.

.TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
ALL MODELS EXCEPT THE GEM BRING SHORTWAVE ENERGY NORTHEAST INTO
THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS ENERGY RIDES IN AHEAD
OF THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS ACROSS MN/IA. THIS TROUGH APPROACHES
DURING TUESDAY NIGHT. APPESRS BEST WINDOW FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL BE
18-06Z...WITH A DROPOFF AFTER 06Z. CAPE PROFILE APPEARS TALL AND
SKINNY ON THE NAM AND GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SO AT THIS TIME THE SVR
THREAT LOOKS LOW...WHICH IS IN LINE WITH SPC/S MARGINAL IDEA.

.WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW
12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF SHOW A QUICKER PROGRESSION ON THE PRIMARY MID
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. MEANWHILE THE 12Z NAM/12Z GEM SHOW A SLOWER
MOVEMENT. IN THE LATTER CASE THIS RESULTS IN ANOTHER CHANCE OF
STORMS DUE TO THE FAVORABLE PLACEMENT OF THE TROUGH AXIS FOR RE-
ENERGIZING CONVECTION. IN THE GFS/ECMWF SCENARIO A QUIETER PERIOD
EVOLVES WITH SOME NVA AND WEAK SURFACE RIDGING. THE 12Z GFS/00Z
ECMWF SUGGEST THE QUIET TREND FROM WEDNESDAY WOULD CARRY OVER INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH AN EXTRAP OF 84 HR NAM SUGGESTING POTENTIAL
FOR SOME EARLY EVENING CONVECTIONS.

.THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
WARM WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING BRIEFLY TAKING HOLD. 925 TEMPS AROUND
20C. SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL STAY OFF TO THE WEST
FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS. 12Z GFS DOES SHOW PRECIP INTO THE WESTERN
CWA AND SUPERBLEND ACCOUNTS FOR THIS SO WILL HAVE SMALL POPS FOR
NOW THERE BUT KEEP THE EAST LARGELY DRY.

.THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW
LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROGGD TO AFFECT THE
AREA THIS PERIOD. MAIN ISSUE CENTERS AROUND THE OVERALL TIMING.
THE GFS IS QUICKER TO BRING THIS FRONT INTO THE AREA...WHILE THE
ECMWF IS SLOWER TO BRING IT IN AND THEN LINGERS IT LONGER. IN FACT
THE GFS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE BY SATURDAY WHILE THE ECMWF
SHOWS A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING ACRS NRN IL WITH WIDESPREAD
PRECIP INTO SRN WI. FOR NOW WILL RIDE WITH THE SUPERBLEND POPS AND
HOPE FOR BETTER CONSENSUS IN FUTURE MODEL RUNS.

.SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
BOTH MODELS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE EXERTING A GREATER INFLUENCE ACRS
WI. IN THE UPPER LEVELS THE GFS SHOWS SUSPISCIOUSLY STRONG VORTS
WELL NORTH OF KS CLOSED LOW. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS A SLIGHTLY
MORE OPEN SYSTEM WITH A MUCH CLEANER LOOKING VORT PATTERN. WILL
STEER TOWARDS THE LATTER.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...AREA OF RAIN WILL AFFECT TAF SITES THROUGH
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MAINLY VFR CATEGORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND EASTERLY. MORE SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS
SHOULD THEN MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING THE EVENING. CONTINUED
SHOWER MENTION IN TAFS DURING THIS TIME...AS A WARM FRONT MOVES
NORTH THROUGH THE AREA. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH LATER
TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

ANOTHER AREA OF RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD THEN PUSH INTO
THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING...WITH A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE. SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
DURING THIS PERIOD...AS SHORT TERM MODELS ARE QUITE AGGRESSIVE WITH
LOWERING THEM. FOR NOW...WILL LEAN TOWARDS MVFR CATEGORY CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES AT TAF SITES.

REMOVED LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR FROM TAFS TONIGHT...AS LOW LEVEL JET
MAY NOT BE AS STRONG AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. STILL...2000 FOOT LEVEL
WINDS SHOULD BE SOUTHWEST AT 30 TO 35 KNOTS.

WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT SOUTHWEST AND BECOME GUSTY DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS OF 28 TO 34 KNOTS POSSIBLE. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...WITH CEILINGS
SCATTERING OUT.

&&

.MARINE...HIGHER DEW POINTS MOVING INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
WILL MOVE OVER THE COOL LAKE MICHIGAN WATERS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
AREAS OF FOG FORMING TONIGHT...REMAINING PATCHY INTO MONDAY. SOME
QUESTION IF THE FOG WILL LINGER MONDAY...WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS
BATTLING MARINE INVERSION LAYER. DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY.

GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING...AS A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION. FREQUENT GUSTS
OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS DURING
THIS TIME...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE SHORELINE. THE GUSTS WILL BE A BIT
LOWER THAN OVER LAND...DUE TO THE MARINE INVERSION. THUS...A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THIS PERIOD. HIGHEST WAVES WILL BE
TOWARD THE OPEN WATERS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO 4 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR
     LMZ643>646.

&&

$$
TONIGHT/MONDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...WOOD
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...COLLAR




000
FXUS63 KMKX 241607 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1107 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...

AREA OF RAIN CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA...DRIVEN BY 850 MB
TO 700 MB WARM AIR ADVECTION/LOW LEVEL JET NOSE AND 500 MB
VORTICITY MAXIMUM. MESOSCALE MODELS HAVE THIS AREA OF
PRECIPITATION MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA INTO MID
AFTERNOON. LITTLE MEAN LAYER OR ELEVATED CAPE SEEN ON AREA
FORECAST SOUNDINGS...SO JUST HAVE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDER THIS
AFTERNOON. LOWERED TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE CLOUDS AND RAIN IN THE AREA.

MESOSCALE MODELS THEN INDICATE SOME BREAKS INTO EARLY
EVENING...BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDESTORMS
LATER THIS EVENING AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO
THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT...AND CONTINUED MOIST CONVEYOR BELT
FLOW INTO THE REGION. A STRONG 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM ALSO
APPROACHES AND MOVES NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION. WILL CONTINUE
HIGHER END POPS FOR THIS PERIOD IN THE FORECAST.

MODELS THEN CONTINUE TO SHOW DRY SLOTTING OCCURRING ACROSS THE
AREA LATE MONDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. SO...WILL LEAN TOWARD
A DRY LOOK FOR THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

AREA OF RAIN WILL AFFECT TAF SITES INTO THE MIDDLE AFTERNOON
HOURS...WITH MAINLY VFR CATEGORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT. SOME BREAKS IN THE PRECIPITATION WILL THEN DEVELOP
LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.

ANOTHER AREA OF RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD THEN PUSH
INTO THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING...AS A
WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH THROUGH THE AREA. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTH LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES DURING THIS PERIOD...AS SHORT
TERM MODELS ARE QUITE AGGRESSIVE WITH LOWERING THEM. FOR
NOW...WILL LEAN TOWARDS MVFR CATEGORY AT MADISON...AND POSSIBLY AT
THE EASTERN SITES.

WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT SOUTHWEST AND BECOME GUSTY DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...WITH CEILINGS
SCATTERING OUT.

&&

.MARINE...

HIGHER DEW POINTS MOVING INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL
MOVE OVER THE COOL LAKE MICHIGAN WATERS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
AREAS OF FOG FORMING. DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY...BUT IS MORE UNCERTAIN WITH THE GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED LATER
IN THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING...AS
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION. FREQUENT
GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS
DURING THIS TIME...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE SHORELINE. THUS...A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THIS PERIOD. HIGHEST WAVES WILL BE
TOWARD THE OPEN WATERS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

WE SHOULD SEE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
ROLL ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE PERIOD.  DEEP MOISTURE IS PUSHING
NORTH OUT OF MISSOURI INTO IOWA EARLY THIS MORNING. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES HAVE REACHED SOUTHERN IOWA AND
THESE HIGH VALUES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF WISCONSIN
BY EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS FLUX IN MOISTURE AND WARMER AIR WILL
RESULT IN THE FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
OVERSPREADING THE AREA THIS MORNING. CAPE VALUES THROUGH THE PERIOD
ARE QUITE LOW...SO THUNDER SHOULDN/T DOMINATE. NEARLY ALL THE MODELS
KEEP THE BETTER PRECIP AMOUNTS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH THE EAST STRUGGLING TO GET MUCH BENEFICIAL RAINFALL...AT
LEAST THROUGH TODAY.  WE COULD SEE A BREAK IN THE PRECIP THIS
AFTERNOON AFTER THE WARM AND MOIST AIR ADVECTION SURGE LIFTS NORTH.
ANOTHER ROUND OR TWO COMES IN TONIGHT WITH AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL
JET FOLLOWED BY A DECENT MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE ARRIVING AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

WE COULD SEE SOME FOG ALONG THE LAKE SHORE...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
PORT WASHINGTON LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH TONIGHT. THE FLOW
WILL BE OFF THE LAKE AND WILL COMBINE WITH THE HIGHER MOISTURE
MOVING.

MEMORIAL DAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

THE SURFACE LOW OVER IOWA TONIGHT WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST MN MONDAY
MORNING AND UNDERGO CYCLOGENESIS AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND UPPER DIVERGENCE INCREASES WITH A COUPLED
UPPER JET STRUCTURE. ANY ONGOING PRECIP WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AND CYCLOGENESIS IN SOUTHERN WI AT 7 AM MONDAY MORNING WILL QUICKLY
LIFT NORTH AND OUT OF THE AREA THROUGH LATE MORNING.

THE STRONG SURFACE LOW WITH THE GFS AND NAM MODELS WILL SHIFT FROM
NW WI TO NORTH CENTRAL WI BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF AND
CANADIAN MODELS ARE SLIGHTLY WEAKER WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW
WHICH LEADS TO SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTH
ACROSS SOUTHERN WI AND THUS WIND SPEEDS. REGARDLESS... EXPECT GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE NAM AND GFS WOULD SUGGEST WIND
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WHILE THE OTHER MODELS HAVE SLIGHTLY LOWER
WINDS.

THERE SHOULD BE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS A DRY AIR WRAPS INTO SOUTHERN
WI MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS AND THE GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DRIVE
TEMPERATURES UP TO AROUND 80 INLAND AND INTO THE LOWER 80S IN THE
LAKESHORE AREAS. YESTERDAY THE MODELS WERE SHOWING HIGHER
INSTABILITY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING... BUT TODAY THE MODELS
HAVE A VERY WARM LAYER ALOFT THAT PREVENTS THAT INSTABILITY.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS MONDAY EVENING AS A SURFACE
TROUGH DROPS THROUGH SOUTHERN WI. SPC KEPT MOST OF WI IN THAT
MARGINAL AREA FOR SEVERE.

LONG TERM...

TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL STALL OVER SOUTHERN WI FOR TUESDAY. ANOTHER
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL LIFT INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND LEAD TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
THROUGH SOUTHERN WI. CONDITIONS ARE COMING TOGETHER FOR A SMALL
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL TUESDAY AFTERNOON SO STAY TUNED. SPC
HAS SOUTHEAST WI IN THE MARGINAL AREA FOR SEVERE ON DAY 3.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

THIS TIME PERIOD SHOULD SHAPE UP TO BE FAIRLY QUIET. THERE MAY BE A
FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WEDNESDAY MORNING UNTIL THE SURFACE TROUGH
EXITS THE REGION. OTHERWISE... THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF UPPER
AND SURFACE RIDGING TO ENJOY. TEMPS WILL BE AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMAL IN THE 70S.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SET UP OVER THE WEST HALF OF THE
COUNTRY AND SEND ENERGY UP THROUGH WI ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH/
BAROCLINIC ZONE. THIS WILL LEAD TO MORE CONTINUOUS CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER IN THE WEEK ALL THE WAY THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

WE SHOULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH TODAY. A SURGE OF
MOISTURE NORTH INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST SHOULD RESULT IN A ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVING AFTER 12-15Z THIS
MORNING.  THERE MAY BE A BREAK IN THE RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
FEW MORE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE STORMS TONIGHT.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD. CIGS AND VSBYS MAY
DROP TO MVFR LEVELS TONIGHT AS THE LOWER LEVELS BEGIN TO SATURATE.
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS HOWEVER. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS
THAT MOST PLACES MAY STAY VFR...BUT IT IS NEAR THE THRESHOLD. LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS LIKELY LATER TONIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
STRENGTHENS AND PUSHES INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THIS WOULD BE
PRIMARILY AFTER 06Z MONDAY.

MARINE...

LOOK FOR EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...BUT REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY AS WELL.  FOG WILL LIKELY BE INCREASING
TONIGHT AS MOISTURE SURGES NORTH INTO THE REGION AND COMBINES WITH
THE COLD LAKE WATERS.

WE SHOULD SEE GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT THAT WILL EXCEED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. HAVE DECIDED TO
GO AHEAD AND HOIST AND ADVISORY FOR THAT PERIOD. WINDS MAY GUST TO
NEAR 30KTS...ESPECIALLY CLOSE TO SHORE.  FOG MAY CONTINUE TO BE A
THREAT...ESPECIALLY OUT TOWARD OPEN WATER.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO 4 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR
     LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WOOD
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DAVIS
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MRC





000
FXUS63 KMKX 241607 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1107 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...

AREA OF RAIN CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA...DRIVEN BY 850 MB
TO 700 MB WARM AIR ADVECTION/LOW LEVEL JET NOSE AND 500 MB
VORTICITY MAXIMUM. MESOSCALE MODELS HAVE THIS AREA OF
PRECIPITATION MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA INTO MID
AFTERNOON. LITTLE MEAN LAYER OR ELEVATED CAPE SEEN ON AREA
FORECAST SOUNDINGS...SO JUST HAVE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDER THIS
AFTERNOON. LOWERED TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE CLOUDS AND RAIN IN THE AREA.

MESOSCALE MODELS THEN INDICATE SOME BREAKS INTO EARLY
EVENING...BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDESTORMS
LATER THIS EVENING AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO
THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT...AND CONTINUED MOIST CONVEYOR BELT
FLOW INTO THE REGION. A STRONG 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM ALSO
APPROACHES AND MOVES NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION. WILL CONTINUE
HIGHER END POPS FOR THIS PERIOD IN THE FORECAST.

MODELS THEN CONTINUE TO SHOW DRY SLOTTING OCCURRING ACROSS THE
AREA LATE MONDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. SO...WILL LEAN TOWARD
A DRY LOOK FOR THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

AREA OF RAIN WILL AFFECT TAF SITES INTO THE MIDDLE AFTERNOON
HOURS...WITH MAINLY VFR CATEGORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT. SOME BREAKS IN THE PRECIPITATION WILL THEN DEVELOP
LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.

ANOTHER AREA OF RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD THEN PUSH
INTO THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING...AS A
WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH THROUGH THE AREA. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTH LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES DURING THIS PERIOD...AS SHORT
TERM MODELS ARE QUITE AGGRESSIVE WITH LOWERING THEM. FOR
NOW...WILL LEAN TOWARDS MVFR CATEGORY AT MADISON...AND POSSIBLY AT
THE EASTERN SITES.

WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT SOUTHWEST AND BECOME GUSTY DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...WITH CEILINGS
SCATTERING OUT.

&&

.MARINE...

HIGHER DEW POINTS MOVING INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL
MOVE OVER THE COOL LAKE MICHIGAN WATERS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
AREAS OF FOG FORMING. DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY...BUT IS MORE UNCERTAIN WITH THE GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED LATER
IN THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING...AS
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION. FREQUENT
GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS
DURING THIS TIME...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE SHORELINE. THUS...A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THIS PERIOD. HIGHEST WAVES WILL BE
TOWARD THE OPEN WATERS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

WE SHOULD SEE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
ROLL ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE PERIOD.  DEEP MOISTURE IS PUSHING
NORTH OUT OF MISSOURI INTO IOWA EARLY THIS MORNING. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES HAVE REACHED SOUTHERN IOWA AND
THESE HIGH VALUES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF WISCONSIN
BY EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS FLUX IN MOISTURE AND WARMER AIR WILL
RESULT IN THE FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
OVERSPREADING THE AREA THIS MORNING. CAPE VALUES THROUGH THE PERIOD
ARE QUITE LOW...SO THUNDER SHOULDN/T DOMINATE. NEARLY ALL THE MODELS
KEEP THE BETTER PRECIP AMOUNTS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH THE EAST STRUGGLING TO GET MUCH BENEFICIAL RAINFALL...AT
LEAST THROUGH TODAY.  WE COULD SEE A BREAK IN THE PRECIP THIS
AFTERNOON AFTER THE WARM AND MOIST AIR ADVECTION SURGE LIFTS NORTH.
ANOTHER ROUND OR TWO COMES IN TONIGHT WITH AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL
JET FOLLOWED BY A DECENT MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE ARRIVING AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

WE COULD SEE SOME FOG ALONG THE LAKE SHORE...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
PORT WASHINGTON LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH TONIGHT. THE FLOW
WILL BE OFF THE LAKE AND WILL COMBINE WITH THE HIGHER MOISTURE
MOVING.

MEMORIAL DAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

THE SURFACE LOW OVER IOWA TONIGHT WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST MN MONDAY
MORNING AND UNDERGO CYCLOGENESIS AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND UPPER DIVERGENCE INCREASES WITH A COUPLED
UPPER JET STRUCTURE. ANY ONGOING PRECIP WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AND CYCLOGENESIS IN SOUTHERN WI AT 7 AM MONDAY MORNING WILL QUICKLY
LIFT NORTH AND OUT OF THE AREA THROUGH LATE MORNING.

THE STRONG SURFACE LOW WITH THE GFS AND NAM MODELS WILL SHIFT FROM
NW WI TO NORTH CENTRAL WI BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF AND
CANADIAN MODELS ARE SLIGHTLY WEAKER WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW
WHICH LEADS TO SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTH
ACROSS SOUTHERN WI AND THUS WIND SPEEDS. REGARDLESS... EXPECT GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE NAM AND GFS WOULD SUGGEST WIND
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WHILE THE OTHER MODELS HAVE SLIGHTLY LOWER
WINDS.

THERE SHOULD BE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS A DRY AIR WRAPS INTO SOUTHERN
WI MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS AND THE GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DRIVE
TEMPERATURES UP TO AROUND 80 INLAND AND INTO THE LOWER 80S IN THE
LAKESHORE AREAS. YESTERDAY THE MODELS WERE SHOWING HIGHER
INSTABILITY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING... BUT TODAY THE MODELS
HAVE A VERY WARM LAYER ALOFT THAT PREVENTS THAT INSTABILITY.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS MONDAY EVENING AS A SURFACE
TROUGH DROPS THROUGH SOUTHERN WI. SPC KEPT MOST OF WI IN THAT
MARGINAL AREA FOR SEVERE.

LONG TERM...

TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL STALL OVER SOUTHERN WI FOR TUESDAY. ANOTHER
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL LIFT INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND LEAD TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
THROUGH SOUTHERN WI. CONDITIONS ARE COMING TOGETHER FOR A SMALL
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL TUESDAY AFTERNOON SO STAY TUNED. SPC
HAS SOUTHEAST WI IN THE MARGINAL AREA FOR SEVERE ON DAY 3.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

THIS TIME PERIOD SHOULD SHAPE UP TO BE FAIRLY QUIET. THERE MAY BE A
FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WEDNESDAY MORNING UNTIL THE SURFACE TROUGH
EXITS THE REGION. OTHERWISE... THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF UPPER
AND SURFACE RIDGING TO ENJOY. TEMPS WILL BE AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMAL IN THE 70S.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SET UP OVER THE WEST HALF OF THE
COUNTRY AND SEND ENERGY UP THROUGH WI ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH/
BAROCLINIC ZONE. THIS WILL LEAD TO MORE CONTINUOUS CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER IN THE WEEK ALL THE WAY THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

WE SHOULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH TODAY. A SURGE OF
MOISTURE NORTH INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST SHOULD RESULT IN A ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVING AFTER 12-15Z THIS
MORNING.  THERE MAY BE A BREAK IN THE RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
FEW MORE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE STORMS TONIGHT.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD. CIGS AND VSBYS MAY
DROP TO MVFR LEVELS TONIGHT AS THE LOWER LEVELS BEGIN TO SATURATE.
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS HOWEVER. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS
THAT MOST PLACES MAY STAY VFR...BUT IT IS NEAR THE THRESHOLD. LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS LIKELY LATER TONIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
STRENGTHENS AND PUSHES INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THIS WOULD BE
PRIMARILY AFTER 06Z MONDAY.

MARINE...

LOOK FOR EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...BUT REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY AS WELL.  FOG WILL LIKELY BE INCREASING
TONIGHT AS MOISTURE SURGES NORTH INTO THE REGION AND COMBINES WITH
THE COLD LAKE WATERS.

WE SHOULD SEE GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT THAT WILL EXCEED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. HAVE DECIDED TO
GO AHEAD AND HOIST AND ADVISORY FOR THAT PERIOD. WINDS MAY GUST TO
NEAR 30KTS...ESPECIALLY CLOSE TO SHORE.  FOG MAY CONTINUE TO BE A
THREAT...ESPECIALLY OUT TOWARD OPEN WATER.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO 4 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR
     LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WOOD
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DAVIS
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MRC




000
FXUS63 KMKX 240842
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
342 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

WE SHOULD SEE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
ROLL ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE PERIOD.  DEEP MOISTURE IS PUSHING
NORTH OUT OF MISSOURI INTO IOWA EARLY THIS MORNING. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES HAVE REACHED SOUTHERN IOWA AND
THESE HIGH VALUES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF WISCONSIN
BY EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS FLUX IN MOISTURE AND WARMER AIR WILL
RESULT IN THE FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
OVERSPREADING THE AREA THIS MORNING. CAPE VALUES THROUGH THE PERIOD
ARE QUITE LOW...SO THUNDER SHOULDN/T DOMINATE. NEARLY ALL THE MODELS
KEEP THE BETTER PRECIP AMOUNTS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH THE EAST STRUGGLING TO GET MUCH BENEFICIAL RAINFALL...AT
LEAST THROUGH TODAY.  WE COULD SEE A BREAK IN THE PRECIP THIS
AFTERNOON AFTER THE WARM AND MOIST AIR ADVECTION SURGE LIFTS NORTH.
ANOTHER ROUND OR TWO COMES IN TONIGHT WITH AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL
JET FOLLOWED BY A DECENT MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE ARRIVING AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

WE COULD SEE SOME FOG ALONG THE LAKE SHORE...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
PORT WASHINGTON LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH TONIGHT. THE FLOW
WILL BE OFF THE LAKE AND WILL COMBINE WITH THE HIGHER MOISTURE
MOVING.

MEMORIAL DAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

THE SURFACE LOW OVER IOWA TONIGHT WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST MN MONDAY
MORNING AND UNDERGO CYCLOGENESIS AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND UPPER DIVERGENCE INCREASES WITH A COUPLED
UPPER JET STRUCTURE. ANY ONGOING PRECIP WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AND CYCLOGENESIS IN SOUTHERN WI AT 7 AM MONDAY MORNING WILL QUICKLY
LIFT NORTH AND OUT OF THE AREA THROUGH LATE MORNING.

THE STRONG SURFACE LOW WITH THE GFS AND NAM MODELS WILL SHIFT FROM
NW WI TO NORTH CENTRAL WI BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF AND
CANADIAN MODELS ARE SLIGHTLY WEAKER WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW
WHICH LEADS TO SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTH
ACROSS SOUTHERN WI AND THUS WIND SPEEDS. REGARDLESS... EXPECT GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE NAM AND GFS WOULD SUGGEST WIND
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WHILE THE OTHER MODELS HAVE SLIGHTLY LOWER
WINDS.

THERE SHOULD BE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS A DRY AIR WRAPS INTO SOUTHERN
WI MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS AND THE GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DRIVE
TEMPERATURES UP TO AROUND 80 INLAND AND INTO THE LOWER 80S IN THE
LAKESHORE AREAS. YESTERDAY THE MODELS WERE SHOWING HIGHER
INSTABILITY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING... BUT TODAY THE MODELS
HAVE A VERY WARM LAYER ALOFT THAT PREVENTS THAT INSTABILITY.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS MONDAY EVENING AS A SURFACE
TROUGH DROPS THROUGH SOUTHERN WI. SPC KEPT MOST OF WI IN THAT
MARGINAL AREA FOR SEVERE.

.LONG TERM...

TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL STALL OVER SOUTHERN WI FOR TUESDAY. ANOTHER
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL LIFT INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND LEAD TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
THROUGH SOUTHERN WI. CONDITIONS ARE COMING TOGETHER FOR A SMALL
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL TUESDAY AFTERNOON SO STAY TUNED. SPC
HAS SOUTHEAST WI IN THE MARGINAL AREA FOR SEVERE ON DAY 3.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

THIS TIME PERIOD SHOULD SHAPE UP TO BE FAIRLY QUIET. THERE MAY BE A
FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WEDNESDAY MORNING UNTIL THE SURFACE TROUGH
EXITS THE REGION. OTHERWISE... THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF UPPER
AND SURFACE RIDGING TO ENJOY. TEMPS WILL BE AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMAL IN THE 70S.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SET UP OVER THE WEST HALF OF THE
COUNTRY AND SEND ENERGY UP THROUGH WI ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH/
BAROCLINIC ZONE. THIS WILL LEAD TO MORE CONTINUOUS CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER IN THE WEEK ALL THE WAY THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

WE SHOULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH TODAY. A SURGE OF
MOISTURE NORTH INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST SHOULD RESULT IN A ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVING AFTER 12-15Z THIS
MORNING.  THERE MAY BE A BREAK IN THE RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
FEW MORE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE STORMS TONIGHT.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD. CIGS AND VSBYS MAY
DROP TO MVFR LEVELS TONIGHT AS THE LOWER LEVELS BEGIN TO SATURATE.
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS HOWEVER. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS
THAT MOST PLACES MAY STAY VFR...BUT IT IS NEAR THE THRESHOLD. LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS LIKELY LATER TONIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
STRENGTHENS AND PUSHES INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THIS WOULD BE
PRIMARILY AFTER 06Z MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

LOOK FOR EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...BUT REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY AS WELL.  FOG WILL LIKELY BE INCREASING
TONIGHT AS MOISTURE SURGES NORTH INTO THE REGION AND COMBINES WITH
THE COLD LAKE WATERS.

WE SHOULD SEE GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT THAT WILL EXCEED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. HAVE DECIDED TO
GO AHEAD AND HOIST AND ADVISORY FOR THAT PERIOD. WINDS MAY GUST TO
NEAR 30KTS...ESPECIALLY CLOSE TO SHORE.  FOG MAY CONTINUE TO BE A
THREAT...ESPECIALLY OUT TOWARD OPEN WATER.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO 4 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR
     LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DAVIS
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MRC




000
FXUS63 KMKX 240842
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
342 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

WE SHOULD SEE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
ROLL ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE PERIOD.  DEEP MOISTURE IS PUSHING
NORTH OUT OF MISSOURI INTO IOWA EARLY THIS MORNING. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES HAVE REACHED SOUTHERN IOWA AND
THESE HIGH VALUES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF WISCONSIN
BY EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS FLUX IN MOISTURE AND WARMER AIR WILL
RESULT IN THE FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
OVERSPREADING THE AREA THIS MORNING. CAPE VALUES THROUGH THE PERIOD
ARE QUITE LOW...SO THUNDER SHOULDN/T DOMINATE. NEARLY ALL THE MODELS
KEEP THE BETTER PRECIP AMOUNTS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH THE EAST STRUGGLING TO GET MUCH BENEFICIAL RAINFALL...AT
LEAST THROUGH TODAY.  WE COULD SEE A BREAK IN THE PRECIP THIS
AFTERNOON AFTER THE WARM AND MOIST AIR ADVECTION SURGE LIFTS NORTH.
ANOTHER ROUND OR TWO COMES IN TONIGHT WITH AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL
JET FOLLOWED BY A DECENT MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE ARRIVING AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

WE COULD SEE SOME FOG ALONG THE LAKE SHORE...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
PORT WASHINGTON LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH TONIGHT. THE FLOW
WILL BE OFF THE LAKE AND WILL COMBINE WITH THE HIGHER MOISTURE
MOVING.

MEMORIAL DAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

THE SURFACE LOW OVER IOWA TONIGHT WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST MN MONDAY
MORNING AND UNDERGO CYCLOGENESIS AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND UPPER DIVERGENCE INCREASES WITH A COUPLED
UPPER JET STRUCTURE. ANY ONGOING PRECIP WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AND CYCLOGENESIS IN SOUTHERN WI AT 7 AM MONDAY MORNING WILL QUICKLY
LIFT NORTH AND OUT OF THE AREA THROUGH LATE MORNING.

THE STRONG SURFACE LOW WITH THE GFS AND NAM MODELS WILL SHIFT FROM
NW WI TO NORTH CENTRAL WI BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF AND
CANADIAN MODELS ARE SLIGHTLY WEAKER WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW
WHICH LEADS TO SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTH
ACROSS SOUTHERN WI AND THUS WIND SPEEDS. REGARDLESS... EXPECT GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE NAM AND GFS WOULD SUGGEST WIND
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WHILE THE OTHER MODELS HAVE SLIGHTLY LOWER
WINDS.

THERE SHOULD BE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS A DRY AIR WRAPS INTO SOUTHERN
WI MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS AND THE GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DRIVE
TEMPERATURES UP TO AROUND 80 INLAND AND INTO THE LOWER 80S IN THE
LAKESHORE AREAS. YESTERDAY THE MODELS WERE SHOWING HIGHER
INSTABILITY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING... BUT TODAY THE MODELS
HAVE A VERY WARM LAYER ALOFT THAT PREVENTS THAT INSTABILITY.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS MONDAY EVENING AS A SURFACE
TROUGH DROPS THROUGH SOUTHERN WI. SPC KEPT MOST OF WI IN THAT
MARGINAL AREA FOR SEVERE.

.LONG TERM...

TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL STALL OVER SOUTHERN WI FOR TUESDAY. ANOTHER
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL LIFT INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND LEAD TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
THROUGH SOUTHERN WI. CONDITIONS ARE COMING TOGETHER FOR A SMALL
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL TUESDAY AFTERNOON SO STAY TUNED. SPC
HAS SOUTHEAST WI IN THE MARGINAL AREA FOR SEVERE ON DAY 3.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

THIS TIME PERIOD SHOULD SHAPE UP TO BE FAIRLY QUIET. THERE MAY BE A
FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WEDNESDAY MORNING UNTIL THE SURFACE TROUGH
EXITS THE REGION. OTHERWISE... THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF UPPER
AND SURFACE RIDGING TO ENJOY. TEMPS WILL BE AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMAL IN THE 70S.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SET UP OVER THE WEST HALF OF THE
COUNTRY AND SEND ENERGY UP THROUGH WI ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH/
BAROCLINIC ZONE. THIS WILL LEAD TO MORE CONTINUOUS CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER IN THE WEEK ALL THE WAY THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

WE SHOULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH TODAY. A SURGE OF
MOISTURE NORTH INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST SHOULD RESULT IN A ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVING AFTER 12-15Z THIS
MORNING.  THERE MAY BE A BREAK IN THE RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
FEW MORE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE STORMS TONIGHT.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD. CIGS AND VSBYS MAY
DROP TO MVFR LEVELS TONIGHT AS THE LOWER LEVELS BEGIN TO SATURATE.
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS HOWEVER. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS
THAT MOST PLACES MAY STAY VFR...BUT IT IS NEAR THE THRESHOLD. LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS LIKELY LATER TONIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
STRENGTHENS AND PUSHES INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THIS WOULD BE
PRIMARILY AFTER 06Z MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

LOOK FOR EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...BUT REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY AS WELL.  FOG WILL LIKELY BE INCREASING
TONIGHT AS MOISTURE SURGES NORTH INTO THE REGION AND COMBINES WITH
THE COLD LAKE WATERS.

WE SHOULD SEE GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT THAT WILL EXCEED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. HAVE DECIDED TO
GO AHEAD AND HOIST AND ADVISORY FOR THAT PERIOD. WINDS MAY GUST TO
NEAR 30KTS...ESPECIALLY CLOSE TO SHORE.  FOG MAY CONTINUE TO BE A
THREAT...ESPECIALLY OUT TOWARD OPEN WATER.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO 4 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR
     LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DAVIS
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MRC





000
FXUS63 KMKX 240343
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1043 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...A W-E BAND OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NWD ACROSS SRN
WI SUN AM INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH A ROUND OF LOW TO MID
LEVEL WARM...MOIST ADVECTION AND FRONTOGENESIS. THIS IS SUPPORTED
BY THE LATEST HRRR AND NAM. THERE MAY BE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
FOR THE EVENING AS THE LLJ INCREASES OUT OF THE SW...AND YET
ANOTHER ROUND MON AM AS CYCLOGENESIS ENSUES FROM ERN KS TO SRN MN.
THE NOSE OF A 50 KT LLJ ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLOGENESIS WILL MOVE
INTO SRN WI MON AM ALONG WITH PVA ALOFT FROM THE APPROACHING UPPER
TROUGH. CHANCES OF THUNDER WILL REMAIN VERY SMALL GIVEN POOR MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES.


&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...INTERMITTENT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. MID LEVEL CLOUDS SUN AM WILL LOWER TO 3.5-5.0 KFT
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT BUT SOME AREAS OF 1.0-3.0 KFT CIGS
ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES. MVFR VSBYS WILL OCCUR AT TIMES WITH THE
RAIN BUT ALSO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD SUN NT VIA LIGHT FOG. THE FOG
MAY BE A LITTLE HEAVIER NEAR LAKE MI.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

AREA OF LIGHT REFLECTIVITY RETURNS OVER NORTHEAST IOWA CONTINUE TO
MOVE CLOSER TO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. THESE ARE LIKELY SPRINKLES AT WORST...AS CLOUD BASES ARE
AROUND 12000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL. THESE WERE BRING DRIVEN BY 700
MB WARM AIR ADVECTION AND A WEAK 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM. THESE
SPRINKLES MAY MAKE IT INTO THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...THOUGH MESOSCALE MODELS WEAKEN THEM BEFORE THEY GET
HERE. FOR NOW...WILL LEAVE OUT OF FORECAST...GIVEN THE DRY AIR IN
THE LOW LEVELS.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT MIDDLE TO HIGH CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE
AREA TONIGHT AND LINGER ON SUNDAY. QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT...AS AIRMASS REMAINS DRY. LOWS SHOULD DROP INTO THE MID 50S
IN MOST AREAS...PER 925 MB TEMPERATURE FIELDS ON MODELS.

CONTINUED TO RAMP UP POPS SUNDAY...AS 850 MB WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
MOISTURE STREAM INTO THE REGION. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND MOISTURE
GET STRONG SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SO KEPT HIGHEST POPS FOR THIS PORTION
OF THE DAY. SOME LOW TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS RESPONSE ALSO MOVE
NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.

AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS WERE SHOWING MAINLY MOIST ADIABATIC PROFILES
WITH VERY WEAK MEAN LAYER CAPE. THUS...HAVE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
THUNDER. SOME DRYNESS IN THE LOW LEVELS WERE ALSO NOTED...ESPECIALLY
TOWARD FAR SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN. SO...THIS AREA MAY SEE MORE
SCATTERED PRECIPITATION THAN TO THE NORTHWEST. HIGHS WILL BE COOLER
WITH THE CLOUDS AND SOME PRECIPITATION...IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S
INLAND...60S LAKESIDE.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH IN THE WARM
SECTOR OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THE INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHOULD AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SOME EVENING/OVERNIGHT CONVECTION THROUGH
INSTABILITY IS RATHER WEAK GIVEN THE WARM AIR ALOFT IN THE
MID/UPPER LEVELS. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE
PRECIPITATION SUNDAY EVENING...BUT SOME OF THE 23.12Z GUIDANCE
APPEARS TO BE SLOWING DOWN THE NORTHWARD ADVANCEMENT OF THE
SURFACE WARM FRONT AND THE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH IT.

THE DEEPER FORCING WILL MOVE IN OVERNIGHT ON INTO THE MORNING OF
MEMORIAL DAY AS A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH PROPAGATES NORTHWARD
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. INSTABILITY
LOOKS TO BE LOW AT ABOUT 50-150 J/KG...SO LIGHTNING SHOULD NOT BE
VERY FREQUENT WITH ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL ON THE LOW SIDE AS WELL.

AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHWARD TOWARD LAKE
SUPERIOR...DRIER AIR WILL GET PULLED IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND
SHOULD HELP TO KEEP THINGS DRY MEMORIAL DAY AFTERNOON. THE
COMBINATION OF DRY AIR THROUGH THE COLUMN AND A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO SOME GUSTY CONDITIONS.

LONG TERM...

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW.

THE MORE INTERESTING DAY COULD END UP BEING TUESDAY AS THE 23.12Z
NAM/GFS/ECMWF ALL SHOW A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE
LOW COMING THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON. THE QUESTION WILL BE WITH HOW
MUCH INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP AND HOW POTENT THE MID LEVEL TROUGH
WILL BE SINCE THE 23.12Z NAM/ECMWF SHOW A WEAKER...POSITIVELY
TILTED TROUGH WHILE THE 23.12Z GFS20 HAS A NEGATIVELY TILTED AND
ALMOST CLOSED OFF TROUGH COMING THROUGH. 23.12Z NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS
SHOW FAIRLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW THOUGH THERE IS SOME INCREASE IN
SPEED WITH HEIGHT.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW.

THE SYSTEM WILL BE DEPARTING THE REGION WEDNESDAY THOUGH AN
INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH/TRAILING MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MAY
BE ENOUGH TO DEVELOP SOME SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MOVE
THROUGH ON THURSDAY BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND OF POTENTIAL RAIN MOVES
IN AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM/COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
GIVEN THE ALMOST ZONAL WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...GETTING THE
TIMING DOWN OF ANY SYSTEM THIS FAR OUT WILL BE DIFFICULT.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND MOST OF SUNDAY ACROSS TAF
SITES. MIDDLE TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHEAST INTO
THE AREA TONIGHT...REMAINING CLOUDY ON SUNDAY. SOUTHEAST LAKE BREEZE
WILL REMAIN UNTIL EARLY EVENING AT EASTERN SITES...WITH LIGHT SOUTH
WINDS AT MADISON. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHEAST TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...INCREASING IN SPEED DURING THE AFTERNOON.

MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE NORTHWARD INTO MADISON BY MIDDAY
SUNDAY...AND THE EASTERN SITES BY MID AFTERNOON SUNDAY. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE SCATTERED TOWARD THE EASTERN SITES THAN AT
MADISON. WILL NOT MENTION THUNDER IN TAFS SUNDAY...AS RISK IS LOW
WITH FAIRLY STABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE. MAY SEE MVFR CATEGORY CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES DEVELOP WITH THE SHOWERS AT TIMES...BUT LEFT OUT OF
TAFS FOR NOW.

MARINE...

GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS  ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE
NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN...AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
DEVELOPS WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE REGION. FREQUENT GUSTS OF
25 TO 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE...PERHAPS LINGERING INTO SUNDAY EVENING.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR THIS PERIOD.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEHRING
TONIGHT/SUNDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...WOOD
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...HALBACH




000
FXUS63 KMKX 240343
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1043 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...A W-E BAND OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NWD ACROSS SRN
WI SUN AM INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH A ROUND OF LOW TO MID
LEVEL WARM...MOIST ADVECTION AND FRONTOGENESIS. THIS IS SUPPORTED
BY THE LATEST HRRR AND NAM. THERE MAY BE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
FOR THE EVENING AS THE LLJ INCREASES OUT OF THE SW...AND YET
ANOTHER ROUND MON AM AS CYCLOGENESIS ENSUES FROM ERN KS TO SRN MN.
THE NOSE OF A 50 KT LLJ ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLOGENESIS WILL MOVE
INTO SRN WI MON AM ALONG WITH PVA ALOFT FROM THE APPROACHING UPPER
TROUGH. CHANCES OF THUNDER WILL REMAIN VERY SMALL GIVEN POOR MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES.


&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...INTERMITTENT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. MID LEVEL CLOUDS SUN AM WILL LOWER TO 3.5-5.0 KFT
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT BUT SOME AREAS OF 1.0-3.0 KFT CIGS
ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES. MVFR VSBYS WILL OCCUR AT TIMES WITH THE
RAIN BUT ALSO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD SUN NT VIA LIGHT FOG. THE FOG
MAY BE A LITTLE HEAVIER NEAR LAKE MI.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

AREA OF LIGHT REFLECTIVITY RETURNS OVER NORTHEAST IOWA CONTINUE TO
MOVE CLOSER TO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. THESE ARE LIKELY SPRINKLES AT WORST...AS CLOUD BASES ARE
AROUND 12000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL. THESE WERE BRING DRIVEN BY 700
MB WARM AIR ADVECTION AND A WEAK 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM. THESE
SPRINKLES MAY MAKE IT INTO THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...THOUGH MESOSCALE MODELS WEAKEN THEM BEFORE THEY GET
HERE. FOR NOW...WILL LEAVE OUT OF FORECAST...GIVEN THE DRY AIR IN
THE LOW LEVELS.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT MIDDLE TO HIGH CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE
AREA TONIGHT AND LINGER ON SUNDAY. QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT...AS AIRMASS REMAINS DRY. LOWS SHOULD DROP INTO THE MID 50S
IN MOST AREAS...PER 925 MB TEMPERATURE FIELDS ON MODELS.

CONTINUED TO RAMP UP POPS SUNDAY...AS 850 MB WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
MOISTURE STREAM INTO THE REGION. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND MOISTURE
GET STRONG SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SO KEPT HIGHEST POPS FOR THIS PORTION
OF THE DAY. SOME LOW TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS RESPONSE ALSO MOVE
NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.

AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS WERE SHOWING MAINLY MOIST ADIABATIC PROFILES
WITH VERY WEAK MEAN LAYER CAPE. THUS...HAVE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
THUNDER. SOME DRYNESS IN THE LOW LEVELS WERE ALSO NOTED...ESPECIALLY
TOWARD FAR SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN. SO...THIS AREA MAY SEE MORE
SCATTERED PRECIPITATION THAN TO THE NORTHWEST. HIGHS WILL BE COOLER
WITH THE CLOUDS AND SOME PRECIPITATION...IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S
INLAND...60S LAKESIDE.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH IN THE WARM
SECTOR OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THE INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHOULD AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SOME EVENING/OVERNIGHT CONVECTION THROUGH
INSTABILITY IS RATHER WEAK GIVEN THE WARM AIR ALOFT IN THE
MID/UPPER LEVELS. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE
PRECIPITATION SUNDAY EVENING...BUT SOME OF THE 23.12Z GUIDANCE
APPEARS TO BE SLOWING DOWN THE NORTHWARD ADVANCEMENT OF THE
SURFACE WARM FRONT AND THE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH IT.

THE DEEPER FORCING WILL MOVE IN OVERNIGHT ON INTO THE MORNING OF
MEMORIAL DAY AS A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH PROPAGATES NORTHWARD
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. INSTABILITY
LOOKS TO BE LOW AT ABOUT 50-150 J/KG...SO LIGHTNING SHOULD NOT BE
VERY FREQUENT WITH ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL ON THE LOW SIDE AS WELL.

AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHWARD TOWARD LAKE
SUPERIOR...DRIER AIR WILL GET PULLED IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND
SHOULD HELP TO KEEP THINGS DRY MEMORIAL DAY AFTERNOON. THE
COMBINATION OF DRY AIR THROUGH THE COLUMN AND A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO SOME GUSTY CONDITIONS.

LONG TERM...

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW.

THE MORE INTERESTING DAY COULD END UP BEING TUESDAY AS THE 23.12Z
NAM/GFS/ECMWF ALL SHOW A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE
LOW COMING THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON. THE QUESTION WILL BE WITH HOW
MUCH INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP AND HOW POTENT THE MID LEVEL TROUGH
WILL BE SINCE THE 23.12Z NAM/ECMWF SHOW A WEAKER...POSITIVELY
TILTED TROUGH WHILE THE 23.12Z GFS20 HAS A NEGATIVELY TILTED AND
ALMOST CLOSED OFF TROUGH COMING THROUGH. 23.12Z NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS
SHOW FAIRLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW THOUGH THERE IS SOME INCREASE IN
SPEED WITH HEIGHT.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW.

THE SYSTEM WILL BE DEPARTING THE REGION WEDNESDAY THOUGH AN
INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH/TRAILING MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MAY
BE ENOUGH TO DEVELOP SOME SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MOVE
THROUGH ON THURSDAY BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND OF POTENTIAL RAIN MOVES
IN AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM/COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
GIVEN THE ALMOST ZONAL WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...GETTING THE
TIMING DOWN OF ANY SYSTEM THIS FAR OUT WILL BE DIFFICULT.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND MOST OF SUNDAY ACROSS TAF
SITES. MIDDLE TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHEAST INTO
THE AREA TONIGHT...REMAINING CLOUDY ON SUNDAY. SOUTHEAST LAKE BREEZE
WILL REMAIN UNTIL EARLY EVENING AT EASTERN SITES...WITH LIGHT SOUTH
WINDS AT MADISON. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHEAST TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...INCREASING IN SPEED DURING THE AFTERNOON.

MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE NORTHWARD INTO MADISON BY MIDDAY
SUNDAY...AND THE EASTERN SITES BY MID AFTERNOON SUNDAY. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE SCATTERED TOWARD THE EASTERN SITES THAN AT
MADISON. WILL NOT MENTION THUNDER IN TAFS SUNDAY...AS RISK IS LOW
WITH FAIRLY STABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE. MAY SEE MVFR CATEGORY CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES DEVELOP WITH THE SHOWERS AT TIMES...BUT LEFT OUT OF
TAFS FOR NOW.

MARINE...

GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS  ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE
NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN...AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
DEVELOPS WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE REGION. FREQUENT GUSTS OF
25 TO 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE...PERHAPS LINGERING INTO SUNDAY EVENING.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR THIS PERIOD.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEHRING
TONIGHT/SUNDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...WOOD
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...HALBACH




000
FXUS63 KMKX 240343
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1043 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...A W-E BAND OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NWD ACROSS SRN
WI SUN AM INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH A ROUND OF LOW TO MID
LEVEL WARM...MOIST ADVECTION AND FRONTOGENESIS. THIS IS SUPPORTED
BY THE LATEST HRRR AND NAM. THERE MAY BE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
FOR THE EVENING AS THE LLJ INCREASES OUT OF THE SW...AND YET
ANOTHER ROUND MON AM AS CYCLOGENESIS ENSUES FROM ERN KS TO SRN MN.
THE NOSE OF A 50 KT LLJ ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLOGENESIS WILL MOVE
INTO SRN WI MON AM ALONG WITH PVA ALOFT FROM THE APPROACHING UPPER
TROUGH. CHANCES OF THUNDER WILL REMAIN VERY SMALL GIVEN POOR MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES.


&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...INTERMITTENT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. MID LEVEL CLOUDS SUN AM WILL LOWER TO 3.5-5.0 KFT
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT BUT SOME AREAS OF 1.0-3.0 KFT CIGS
ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES. MVFR VSBYS WILL OCCUR AT TIMES WITH THE
RAIN BUT ALSO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD SUN NT VIA LIGHT FOG. THE FOG
MAY BE A LITTLE HEAVIER NEAR LAKE MI.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

AREA OF LIGHT REFLECTIVITY RETURNS OVER NORTHEAST IOWA CONTINUE TO
MOVE CLOSER TO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. THESE ARE LIKELY SPRINKLES AT WORST...AS CLOUD BASES ARE
AROUND 12000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL. THESE WERE BRING DRIVEN BY 700
MB WARM AIR ADVECTION AND A WEAK 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM. THESE
SPRINKLES MAY MAKE IT INTO THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...THOUGH MESOSCALE MODELS WEAKEN THEM BEFORE THEY GET
HERE. FOR NOW...WILL LEAVE OUT OF FORECAST...GIVEN THE DRY AIR IN
THE LOW LEVELS.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT MIDDLE TO HIGH CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE
AREA TONIGHT AND LINGER ON SUNDAY. QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT...AS AIRMASS REMAINS DRY. LOWS SHOULD DROP INTO THE MID 50S
IN MOST AREAS...PER 925 MB TEMPERATURE FIELDS ON MODELS.

CONTINUED TO RAMP UP POPS SUNDAY...AS 850 MB WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
MOISTURE STREAM INTO THE REGION. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND MOISTURE
GET STRONG SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SO KEPT HIGHEST POPS FOR THIS PORTION
OF THE DAY. SOME LOW TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS RESPONSE ALSO MOVE
NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.

AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS WERE SHOWING MAINLY MOIST ADIABATIC PROFILES
WITH VERY WEAK MEAN LAYER CAPE. THUS...HAVE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
THUNDER. SOME DRYNESS IN THE LOW LEVELS WERE ALSO NOTED...ESPECIALLY
TOWARD FAR SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN. SO...THIS AREA MAY SEE MORE
SCATTERED PRECIPITATION THAN TO THE NORTHWEST. HIGHS WILL BE COOLER
WITH THE CLOUDS AND SOME PRECIPITATION...IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S
INLAND...60S LAKESIDE.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH IN THE WARM
SECTOR OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THE INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHOULD AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SOME EVENING/OVERNIGHT CONVECTION THROUGH
INSTABILITY IS RATHER WEAK GIVEN THE WARM AIR ALOFT IN THE
MID/UPPER LEVELS. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE
PRECIPITATION SUNDAY EVENING...BUT SOME OF THE 23.12Z GUIDANCE
APPEARS TO BE SLOWING DOWN THE NORTHWARD ADVANCEMENT OF THE
SURFACE WARM FRONT AND THE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH IT.

THE DEEPER FORCING WILL MOVE IN OVERNIGHT ON INTO THE MORNING OF
MEMORIAL DAY AS A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH PROPAGATES NORTHWARD
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. INSTABILITY
LOOKS TO BE LOW AT ABOUT 50-150 J/KG...SO LIGHTNING SHOULD NOT BE
VERY FREQUENT WITH ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL ON THE LOW SIDE AS WELL.

AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHWARD TOWARD LAKE
SUPERIOR...DRIER AIR WILL GET PULLED IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND
SHOULD HELP TO KEEP THINGS DRY MEMORIAL DAY AFTERNOON. THE
COMBINATION OF DRY AIR THROUGH THE COLUMN AND A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO SOME GUSTY CONDITIONS.

LONG TERM...

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW.

THE MORE INTERESTING DAY COULD END UP BEING TUESDAY AS THE 23.12Z
NAM/GFS/ECMWF ALL SHOW A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE
LOW COMING THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON. THE QUESTION WILL BE WITH HOW
MUCH INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP AND HOW POTENT THE MID LEVEL TROUGH
WILL BE SINCE THE 23.12Z NAM/ECMWF SHOW A WEAKER...POSITIVELY
TILTED TROUGH WHILE THE 23.12Z GFS20 HAS A NEGATIVELY TILTED AND
ALMOST CLOSED OFF TROUGH COMING THROUGH. 23.12Z NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS
SHOW FAIRLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW THOUGH THERE IS SOME INCREASE IN
SPEED WITH HEIGHT.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW.

THE SYSTEM WILL BE DEPARTING THE REGION WEDNESDAY THOUGH AN
INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH/TRAILING MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MAY
BE ENOUGH TO DEVELOP SOME SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MOVE
THROUGH ON THURSDAY BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND OF POTENTIAL RAIN MOVES
IN AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM/COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
GIVEN THE ALMOST ZONAL WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...GETTING THE
TIMING DOWN OF ANY SYSTEM THIS FAR OUT WILL BE DIFFICULT.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND MOST OF SUNDAY ACROSS TAF
SITES. MIDDLE TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHEAST INTO
THE AREA TONIGHT...REMAINING CLOUDY ON SUNDAY. SOUTHEAST LAKE BREEZE
WILL REMAIN UNTIL EARLY EVENING AT EASTERN SITES...WITH LIGHT SOUTH
WINDS AT MADISON. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHEAST TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...INCREASING IN SPEED DURING THE AFTERNOON.

MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE NORTHWARD INTO MADISON BY MIDDAY
SUNDAY...AND THE EASTERN SITES BY MID AFTERNOON SUNDAY. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE SCATTERED TOWARD THE EASTERN SITES THAN AT
MADISON. WILL NOT MENTION THUNDER IN TAFS SUNDAY...AS RISK IS LOW
WITH FAIRLY STABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE. MAY SEE MVFR CATEGORY CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES DEVELOP WITH THE SHOWERS AT TIMES...BUT LEFT OUT OF
TAFS FOR NOW.

MARINE...

GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS  ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE
NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN...AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
DEVELOPS WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE REGION. FREQUENT GUSTS OF
25 TO 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE...PERHAPS LINGERING INTO SUNDAY EVENING.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR THIS PERIOD.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEHRING
TONIGHT/SUNDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...WOOD
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...HALBACH





000
FXUS63 KMKX 232030
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
330 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...

.TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

AREA OF LIGHT REFLECTIVITY RETURNS OVER NORTHEAST IOWA CONTINUE TO
MOVE CLOSER TO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. THESE ARE LIKELY SPRINKLES AT WORST...AS CLOUD BASES ARE
AROUND 12000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL. THESE WERE BRING DRIVEN BY 700
MB WARM AIR ADVECTION AND A WEAK 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM. THESE
SPRINKLES MAY MAKE IT INTO THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...THOUGH MESOSCALE MODELS WEAKEN THEM BEFORE THEY GET
HERE. FOR NOW...WILL LEAVE OUT OF FORECAST...GIVEN THE DRY AIR IN
THE LOW LEVELS.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT MIDDLE TO HIGH CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE
AREA TONIGHT AND LINGER ON SUNDAY. QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT...AS AIRMASS REMAINS DRY. LOWS SHOULD DROP INTO THE MID 50S
IN MOST AREAS...PER 925 MB TEMPERATURE FIELDS ON MODELS.

CONTINUED TO RAMP UP POPS SUNDAY...AS 850 MB WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
MOISTURE STREAM INTO THE REGION. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND MOISTURE
GET STRONG SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SO KEPT HIGHEST POPS FOR THIS PORTION
OF THE DAY. SOME LOW TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS RESPONSE ALSO MOVE
NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.

AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS WERE SHOWING MAINLY MOIST ADIABATIC PROFILES
WITH VERY WEAK MEAN LAYER CAPE. THUS...HAVE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
THUNDER. SOME DRYNESS IN THE LOW LEVELS WERE ALSO NOTED...ESPECIALLY
TOWARD FAR SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN. SO...THIS AREA MAY SEE MORE
SCATTERED PRECIPITATION THAN TO THE NORTHWEST. HIGHS WILL BE COOLER
WITH THE CLOUDS AND SOME PRECIPITATION...IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S
INLAND...60S LAKESIDE.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH IN THE WARM
SECTOR OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THE INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHOULD AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SOME EVENING/OVERNIGHT CONVECTION THROUGH
INSTABILITY IS RATHER WEAK GIVEN THE WARM AIR ALOFT IN THE
MID/UPPER LEVELS. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE
PRECIPITATION SUNDAY EVENING...BUT SOME OF THE 23.12Z GUIDANCE
APPEARS TO BE SLOWING DOWN THE NORTHWARD ADVANCEMENT OF THE
SURFACE WARM FRONT AND THE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH IT.

THE DEEPER FORCING WILL MOVE IN OVERNIGHT ON INTO THE MORNING OF
MEMORIAL DAY AS A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH PROPAGATES NORTHWARD
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. INSTABILITY
LOOKS TO BE LOW AT ABOUT 50-150 J/KG...SO LIGHTNING SHOULD NOT BE
VERY FREQUENT WITH ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL ON THE LOW SIDE AS WELL.

AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHWARD TOWARD LAKE
SUPERIOR...DRIER AIR WILL GET PULLED IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND
SHOULD HELP TO KEEP THINGS DRY MEMORIAL DAY AFTERNOON. THE
COMBINATION OF DRY AIR THROUGH THE COLUMN AND A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO SOME GUSTY CONDITIONS.

.LONG TERM...

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW.

THE MORE INTERESTING DAY COULD END UP BEING TUESDAY AS THE 23.12Z
NAM/GFS/ECMWF ALL SHOW A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE
LOW COMING THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON. THE QUESTION WILL BE WITH HOW
MUCH INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP AND HOW POTENT THE MID LEVEL TROUGH
WILL BE SINCE THE 23.12Z NAM/ECMWF SHOW A WEAKER...POSITIVELY
TILTED TROUGH WHILE THE 23.12Z GFS20 HAS A NEGATIVELY TILTED AND
ALMOST CLOSED OFF TROUGH COMING THROUGH. 23.12Z NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS
SHOW FAIRLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW THOUGH THERE IS SOME INCREASE IN
SPEED WITH HEIGHT.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW.

THE SYSTEM WILL BE DEPARTING THE REGION WEDNESDAY THOUGH AN
INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH/TRAILING MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MAY
BE ENOUGH TO DEVELOP SOME SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MOVE
THROUGH ON THURSDAY BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND OF POTENTIAL RAIN MOVES
IN AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM/COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
GIVEN THE ALMOST ZONAL WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...GETTING THE
TIMING DOWN OF ANY SYSTEM THIS FAR OUT WILL BE DIFFICULT.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND MOST OF SUNDAY ACROSS TAF
SITES. MIDDLE TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHEAST INTO
THE AREA TONIGHT...REMAINING CLOUDY ON SUNDAY. SOUTHEAST LAKE BREEZE
WILL REMAIN UNTIL EARLY EVENING AT EASTERN SITES...WITH LIGHT SOUTH
WINDS AT MADISON. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHEAST TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...INCREASING IN SPEED DURING THE AFTERNOON.

MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE NORTHWARD INTO MADISON BY MIDDAY
SUNDAY...AND THE EASTERN SITES BY MID AFTERNOON SUNDAY. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE SCATTERED TOWARD THE EASTERN SITES THAN AT
MADISON. WILL NOT MENTION THUNDER IN TAFS SUNDAY...AS RISK IS LOW
WITH FAIRLY STABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE. MAY SEE MVFR CATEGORY CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES DEVELOP WITH THE SHOWERS AT TIMES...BUT LEFT OUT OF
TAFS FOR NOW.

&&

.MARINE...

GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS  ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE
NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN...AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
DEVELOPS WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE REGION. FREQUENT GUSTS OF
25 TO 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE...PERHAPS LINGERING INTO SUNDAY EVENING.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR THIS PERIOD.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TONIGHT/SUNDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...08/WOOD
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...HALBACH




000
FXUS63 KMKX 232030
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
330 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...

.TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

AREA OF LIGHT REFLECTIVITY RETURNS OVER NORTHEAST IOWA CONTINUE TO
MOVE CLOSER TO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. THESE ARE LIKELY SPRINKLES AT WORST...AS CLOUD BASES ARE
AROUND 12000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL. THESE WERE BRING DRIVEN BY 700
MB WARM AIR ADVECTION AND A WEAK 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM. THESE
SPRINKLES MAY MAKE IT INTO THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...THOUGH MESOSCALE MODELS WEAKEN THEM BEFORE THEY GET
HERE. FOR NOW...WILL LEAVE OUT OF FORECAST...GIVEN THE DRY AIR IN
THE LOW LEVELS.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT MIDDLE TO HIGH CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE
AREA TONIGHT AND LINGER ON SUNDAY. QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT...AS AIRMASS REMAINS DRY. LOWS SHOULD DROP INTO THE MID 50S
IN MOST AREAS...PER 925 MB TEMPERATURE FIELDS ON MODELS.

CONTINUED TO RAMP UP POPS SUNDAY...AS 850 MB WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
MOISTURE STREAM INTO THE REGION. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND MOISTURE
GET STRONG SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SO KEPT HIGHEST POPS FOR THIS PORTION
OF THE DAY. SOME LOW TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS RESPONSE ALSO MOVE
NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.

AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS WERE SHOWING MAINLY MOIST ADIABATIC PROFILES
WITH VERY WEAK MEAN LAYER CAPE. THUS...HAVE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
THUNDER. SOME DRYNESS IN THE LOW LEVELS WERE ALSO NOTED...ESPECIALLY
TOWARD FAR SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN. SO...THIS AREA MAY SEE MORE
SCATTERED PRECIPITATION THAN TO THE NORTHWEST. HIGHS WILL BE COOLER
WITH THE CLOUDS AND SOME PRECIPITATION...IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S
INLAND...60S LAKESIDE.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH IN THE WARM
SECTOR OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THE INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHOULD AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SOME EVENING/OVERNIGHT CONVECTION THROUGH
INSTABILITY IS RATHER WEAK GIVEN THE WARM AIR ALOFT IN THE
MID/UPPER LEVELS. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE
PRECIPITATION SUNDAY EVENING...BUT SOME OF THE 23.12Z GUIDANCE
APPEARS TO BE SLOWING DOWN THE NORTHWARD ADVANCEMENT OF THE
SURFACE WARM FRONT AND THE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH IT.

THE DEEPER FORCING WILL MOVE IN OVERNIGHT ON INTO THE MORNING OF
MEMORIAL DAY AS A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH PROPAGATES NORTHWARD
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. INSTABILITY
LOOKS TO BE LOW AT ABOUT 50-150 J/KG...SO LIGHTNING SHOULD NOT BE
VERY FREQUENT WITH ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL ON THE LOW SIDE AS WELL.

AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHWARD TOWARD LAKE
SUPERIOR...DRIER AIR WILL GET PULLED IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND
SHOULD HELP TO KEEP THINGS DRY MEMORIAL DAY AFTERNOON. THE
COMBINATION OF DRY AIR THROUGH THE COLUMN AND A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO SOME GUSTY CONDITIONS.

.LONG TERM...

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW.

THE MORE INTERESTING DAY COULD END UP BEING TUESDAY AS THE 23.12Z
NAM/GFS/ECMWF ALL SHOW A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE
LOW COMING THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON. THE QUESTION WILL BE WITH HOW
MUCH INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP AND HOW POTENT THE MID LEVEL TROUGH
WILL BE SINCE THE 23.12Z NAM/ECMWF SHOW A WEAKER...POSITIVELY
TILTED TROUGH WHILE THE 23.12Z GFS20 HAS A NEGATIVELY TILTED AND
ALMOST CLOSED OFF TROUGH COMING THROUGH. 23.12Z NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS
SHOW FAIRLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW THOUGH THERE IS SOME INCREASE IN
SPEED WITH HEIGHT.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW.

THE SYSTEM WILL BE DEPARTING THE REGION WEDNESDAY THOUGH AN
INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH/TRAILING MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MAY
BE ENOUGH TO DEVELOP SOME SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MOVE
THROUGH ON THURSDAY BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND OF POTENTIAL RAIN MOVES
IN AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM/COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
GIVEN THE ALMOST ZONAL WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...GETTING THE
TIMING DOWN OF ANY SYSTEM THIS FAR OUT WILL BE DIFFICULT.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND MOST OF SUNDAY ACROSS TAF
SITES. MIDDLE TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHEAST INTO
THE AREA TONIGHT...REMAINING CLOUDY ON SUNDAY. SOUTHEAST LAKE BREEZE
WILL REMAIN UNTIL EARLY EVENING AT EASTERN SITES...WITH LIGHT SOUTH
WINDS AT MADISON. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHEAST TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...INCREASING IN SPEED DURING THE AFTERNOON.

MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE NORTHWARD INTO MADISON BY MIDDAY
SUNDAY...AND THE EASTERN SITES BY MID AFTERNOON SUNDAY. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE SCATTERED TOWARD THE EASTERN SITES THAN AT
MADISON. WILL NOT MENTION THUNDER IN TAFS SUNDAY...AS RISK IS LOW
WITH FAIRLY STABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE. MAY SEE MVFR CATEGORY CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES DEVELOP WITH THE SHOWERS AT TIMES...BUT LEFT OUT OF
TAFS FOR NOW.

&&

.MARINE...

GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS  ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE
NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN...AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
DEVELOPS WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE REGION. FREQUENT GUSTS OF
25 TO 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE...PERHAPS LINGERING INTO SUNDAY EVENING.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR THIS PERIOD.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TONIGHT/SUNDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...08/WOOD
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...HALBACH





000
FXUS63 KMKX 232030
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
330 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...

.TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

AREA OF LIGHT REFLECTIVITY RETURNS OVER NORTHEAST IOWA CONTINUE TO
MOVE CLOSER TO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. THESE ARE LIKELY SPRINKLES AT WORST...AS CLOUD BASES ARE
AROUND 12000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL. THESE WERE BRING DRIVEN BY 700
MB WARM AIR ADVECTION AND A WEAK 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM. THESE
SPRINKLES MAY MAKE IT INTO THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...THOUGH MESOSCALE MODELS WEAKEN THEM BEFORE THEY GET
HERE. FOR NOW...WILL LEAVE OUT OF FORECAST...GIVEN THE DRY AIR IN
THE LOW LEVELS.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT MIDDLE TO HIGH CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE
AREA TONIGHT AND LINGER ON SUNDAY. QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT...AS AIRMASS REMAINS DRY. LOWS SHOULD DROP INTO THE MID 50S
IN MOST AREAS...PER 925 MB TEMPERATURE FIELDS ON MODELS.

CONTINUED TO RAMP UP POPS SUNDAY...AS 850 MB WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
MOISTURE STREAM INTO THE REGION. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND MOISTURE
GET STRONG SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SO KEPT HIGHEST POPS FOR THIS PORTION
OF THE DAY. SOME LOW TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS RESPONSE ALSO MOVE
NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.

AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS WERE SHOWING MAINLY MOIST ADIABATIC PROFILES
WITH VERY WEAK MEAN LAYER CAPE. THUS...HAVE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
THUNDER. SOME DRYNESS IN THE LOW LEVELS WERE ALSO NOTED...ESPECIALLY
TOWARD FAR SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN. SO...THIS AREA MAY SEE MORE
SCATTERED PRECIPITATION THAN TO THE NORTHWEST. HIGHS WILL BE COOLER
WITH THE CLOUDS AND SOME PRECIPITATION...IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S
INLAND...60S LAKESIDE.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH IN THE WARM
SECTOR OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THE INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHOULD AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SOME EVENING/OVERNIGHT CONVECTION THROUGH
INSTABILITY IS RATHER WEAK GIVEN THE WARM AIR ALOFT IN THE
MID/UPPER LEVELS. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE
PRECIPITATION SUNDAY EVENING...BUT SOME OF THE 23.12Z GUIDANCE
APPEARS TO BE SLOWING DOWN THE NORTHWARD ADVANCEMENT OF THE
SURFACE WARM FRONT AND THE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH IT.

THE DEEPER FORCING WILL MOVE IN OVERNIGHT ON INTO THE MORNING OF
MEMORIAL DAY AS A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH PROPAGATES NORTHWARD
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. INSTABILITY
LOOKS TO BE LOW AT ABOUT 50-150 J/KG...SO LIGHTNING SHOULD NOT BE
VERY FREQUENT WITH ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL ON THE LOW SIDE AS WELL.

AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHWARD TOWARD LAKE
SUPERIOR...DRIER AIR WILL GET PULLED IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND
SHOULD HELP TO KEEP THINGS DRY MEMORIAL DAY AFTERNOON. THE
COMBINATION OF DRY AIR THROUGH THE COLUMN AND A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO SOME GUSTY CONDITIONS.

.LONG TERM...

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW.

THE MORE INTERESTING DAY COULD END UP BEING TUESDAY AS THE 23.12Z
NAM/GFS/ECMWF ALL SHOW A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE
LOW COMING THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON. THE QUESTION WILL BE WITH HOW
MUCH INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP AND HOW POTENT THE MID LEVEL TROUGH
WILL BE SINCE THE 23.12Z NAM/ECMWF SHOW A WEAKER...POSITIVELY
TILTED TROUGH WHILE THE 23.12Z GFS20 HAS A NEGATIVELY TILTED AND
ALMOST CLOSED OFF TROUGH COMING THROUGH. 23.12Z NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS
SHOW FAIRLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW THOUGH THERE IS SOME INCREASE IN
SPEED WITH HEIGHT.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW.

THE SYSTEM WILL BE DEPARTING THE REGION WEDNESDAY THOUGH AN
INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH/TRAILING MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MAY
BE ENOUGH TO DEVELOP SOME SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MOVE
THROUGH ON THURSDAY BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND OF POTENTIAL RAIN MOVES
IN AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM/COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
GIVEN THE ALMOST ZONAL WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...GETTING THE
TIMING DOWN OF ANY SYSTEM THIS FAR OUT WILL BE DIFFICULT.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND MOST OF SUNDAY ACROSS TAF
SITES. MIDDLE TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHEAST INTO
THE AREA TONIGHT...REMAINING CLOUDY ON SUNDAY. SOUTHEAST LAKE BREEZE
WILL REMAIN UNTIL EARLY EVENING AT EASTERN SITES...WITH LIGHT SOUTH
WINDS AT MADISON. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHEAST TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...INCREASING IN SPEED DURING THE AFTERNOON.

MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE NORTHWARD INTO MADISON BY MIDDAY
SUNDAY...AND THE EASTERN SITES BY MID AFTERNOON SUNDAY. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE SCATTERED TOWARD THE EASTERN SITES THAN AT
MADISON. WILL NOT MENTION THUNDER IN TAFS SUNDAY...AS RISK IS LOW
WITH FAIRLY STABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE. MAY SEE MVFR CATEGORY CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES DEVELOP WITH THE SHOWERS AT TIMES...BUT LEFT OUT OF
TAFS FOR NOW.

&&

.MARINE...

GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS  ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE
NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN...AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
DEVELOPS WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE REGION. FREQUENT GUSTS OF
25 TO 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE...PERHAPS LINGERING INTO SUNDAY EVENING.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR THIS PERIOD.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TONIGHT/SUNDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...08/WOOD
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...HALBACH





000
FXUS63 KMKX 232030
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
330 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...

.TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

AREA OF LIGHT REFLECTIVITY RETURNS OVER NORTHEAST IOWA CONTINUE TO
MOVE CLOSER TO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. THESE ARE LIKELY SPRINKLES AT WORST...AS CLOUD BASES ARE
AROUND 12000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL. THESE WERE BRING DRIVEN BY 700
MB WARM AIR ADVECTION AND A WEAK 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM. THESE
SPRINKLES MAY MAKE IT INTO THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...THOUGH MESOSCALE MODELS WEAKEN THEM BEFORE THEY GET
HERE. FOR NOW...WILL LEAVE OUT OF FORECAST...GIVEN THE DRY AIR IN
THE LOW LEVELS.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT MIDDLE TO HIGH CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE
AREA TONIGHT AND LINGER ON SUNDAY. QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT...AS AIRMASS REMAINS DRY. LOWS SHOULD DROP INTO THE MID 50S
IN MOST AREAS...PER 925 MB TEMPERATURE FIELDS ON MODELS.

CONTINUED TO RAMP UP POPS SUNDAY...AS 850 MB WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
MOISTURE STREAM INTO THE REGION. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND MOISTURE
GET STRONG SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SO KEPT HIGHEST POPS FOR THIS PORTION
OF THE DAY. SOME LOW TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS RESPONSE ALSO MOVE
NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.

AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS WERE SHOWING MAINLY MOIST ADIABATIC PROFILES
WITH VERY WEAK MEAN LAYER CAPE. THUS...HAVE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
THUNDER. SOME DRYNESS IN THE LOW LEVELS WERE ALSO NOTED...ESPECIALLY
TOWARD FAR SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN. SO...THIS AREA MAY SEE MORE
SCATTERED PRECIPITATION THAN TO THE NORTHWEST. HIGHS WILL BE COOLER
WITH THE CLOUDS AND SOME PRECIPITATION...IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S
INLAND...60S LAKESIDE.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH IN THE WARM
SECTOR OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THE INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHOULD AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SOME EVENING/OVERNIGHT CONVECTION THROUGH
INSTABILITY IS RATHER WEAK GIVEN THE WARM AIR ALOFT IN THE
MID/UPPER LEVELS. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE
PRECIPITATION SUNDAY EVENING...BUT SOME OF THE 23.12Z GUIDANCE
APPEARS TO BE SLOWING DOWN THE NORTHWARD ADVANCEMENT OF THE
SURFACE WARM FRONT AND THE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH IT.

THE DEEPER FORCING WILL MOVE IN OVERNIGHT ON INTO THE MORNING OF
MEMORIAL DAY AS A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH PROPAGATES NORTHWARD
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. INSTABILITY
LOOKS TO BE LOW AT ABOUT 50-150 J/KG...SO LIGHTNING SHOULD NOT BE
VERY FREQUENT WITH ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL ON THE LOW SIDE AS WELL.

AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHWARD TOWARD LAKE
SUPERIOR...DRIER AIR WILL GET PULLED IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND
SHOULD HELP TO KEEP THINGS DRY MEMORIAL DAY AFTERNOON. THE
COMBINATION OF DRY AIR THROUGH THE COLUMN AND A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO SOME GUSTY CONDITIONS.

.LONG TERM...

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW.

THE MORE INTERESTING DAY COULD END UP BEING TUESDAY AS THE 23.12Z
NAM/GFS/ECMWF ALL SHOW A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE
LOW COMING THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON. THE QUESTION WILL BE WITH HOW
MUCH INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP AND HOW POTENT THE MID LEVEL TROUGH
WILL BE SINCE THE 23.12Z NAM/ECMWF SHOW A WEAKER...POSITIVELY
TILTED TROUGH WHILE THE 23.12Z GFS20 HAS A NEGATIVELY TILTED AND
ALMOST CLOSED OFF TROUGH COMING THROUGH. 23.12Z NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS
SHOW FAIRLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW THOUGH THERE IS SOME INCREASE IN
SPEED WITH HEIGHT.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW.

THE SYSTEM WILL BE DEPARTING THE REGION WEDNESDAY THOUGH AN
INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH/TRAILING MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MAY
BE ENOUGH TO DEVELOP SOME SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MOVE
THROUGH ON THURSDAY BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND OF POTENTIAL RAIN MOVES
IN AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM/COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
GIVEN THE ALMOST ZONAL WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...GETTING THE
TIMING DOWN OF ANY SYSTEM THIS FAR OUT WILL BE DIFFICULT.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND MOST OF SUNDAY ACROSS TAF
SITES. MIDDLE TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHEAST INTO
THE AREA TONIGHT...REMAINING CLOUDY ON SUNDAY. SOUTHEAST LAKE BREEZE
WILL REMAIN UNTIL EARLY EVENING AT EASTERN SITES...WITH LIGHT SOUTH
WINDS AT MADISON. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHEAST TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...INCREASING IN SPEED DURING THE AFTERNOON.

MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE NORTHWARD INTO MADISON BY MIDDAY
SUNDAY...AND THE EASTERN SITES BY MID AFTERNOON SUNDAY. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE SCATTERED TOWARD THE EASTERN SITES THAN AT
MADISON. WILL NOT MENTION THUNDER IN TAFS SUNDAY...AS RISK IS LOW
WITH FAIRLY STABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE. MAY SEE MVFR CATEGORY CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES DEVELOP WITH THE SHOWERS AT TIMES...BUT LEFT OUT OF
TAFS FOR NOW.

&&

.MARINE...

GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS  ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE
NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN...AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
DEVELOPS WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE REGION. FREQUENT GUSTS OF
25 TO 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE...PERHAPS LINGERING INTO SUNDAY EVENING.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR THIS PERIOD.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TONIGHT/SUNDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...08/WOOD
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...HALBACH




000
FXUS63 KMKX 231620 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1120 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...

ANOTHER NICE DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY...WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE AREA. MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE INTO THE
AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM AND 700 FRONTOGENESIS RESPONSE
FIELDS...ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWERS IN MINNESOTA...EXTENDS INTO THE
AREA INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...DRY AIR BELOW 6000 FEET
ABOVE GROUND LEVEL AND MODEST MOISTURE ABOVE IT SHOULD PREVENT ANY
SHOWER ACTIVITY.

BUMPED UP HIGHS A FEW DEGREES...GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS. HIGHS SHOULD
REACH THE UPPER 70S INLAND...WITH LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPING EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON AND COOLING THINGS DOWN NEAR THE LAKE.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING ACROSS TAF SITES. MIDDLE TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY
SPREAD NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...REMAINING CLOUDY ON SUNDAY. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS ARE
EXPECTED AT MADISON...WITH SOUTHEAST LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPING AT
EASTERN SITES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTH
TONIGHT AND THEN SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY...INCREASING DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE NORTHWARD INTO MADISON BY MID TO
LATE MORNING SUNDAY...AND THE EASTERN SITES EARLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE SCATTERED TOWARD THE EASTERN
SITES. WILL NOT MENTION THUNDER IN TAFS SUNDAY...AS RISK IS LOW
WITH STABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE. MAY SEE MVFR CATEGORY CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES DEVELOP WITH THE SHOWERS AT TIMES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS A
JET MAX INCREASES IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW OVER WISCONSIN...LIFTING TO
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES LATE TONIGHT. GENERALLY WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.  AN NARROW ELONGATED AREA OF
CYCLONIC VORTICITY LIFTS NORTH TROUGH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TODAY MID
LEVEL RH INCREASES TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH BANDS OF WEAK UPWARD
MOTION MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.  THE 850/700 MB WINDS ARE
FAIRLY WEAK AS THE LOWER AND MID LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.  THE DEVELOPING SOUTH 850 MB FLOW BEGINS TO PUSH
TOWARD SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY SUNRISE SUNDAY BUT THE 850/700 MB
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE STAYS SOUTHWEST.  THE NAM/GFS AND ECMWF ARE ALL
DRY THROUGH TONIGHT.  LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT WITH THE
APPROACHING INCREASE IN 850/700 MB WIND MAXIMA...AND SOME MAINLY MID
LEVEL VIRGA POSSIBLE WITH THE INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE TODAY.

WITH THE WEAK SURFACE RIDGE...A LAKE BREEZE WILL COOL THINGS OFF
NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN IN THE AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS OVER THE MIDWEST AND POINTS INTO
SOUTHERN WI SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WHILE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS WI. THERE IS A SLOWING TREND WITH THE PRECIP
ARRIVING INTO SOUTHERN WI... SO REDUCED POPS FOR THE FIRST PART OF
SUNDAY MORNING. AS IS THE CASE WITH ANY SHORTWAVE AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION- INDUCED PRECIP... TIMING OF THE ROUNDS OF PRECIP IS
UNCERTAIN.

THE FIRST WAVE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
LIFT THROUGH SOUTHERN WI LATE SUNDAY MORNING WITH A 500MB SHORTWAVE
AND 850MB-700MB FRONTOGENESIS ON THE NOSE OF A LOW LEVEL JET. THE
MOIST PROFILE WITH HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL LEAD TO
LIMITED INSTABILITY. THE NAM IS DRIEST WITH THIS FEATURE AND KEEPS
SOUTHEAST WI MOSTLY DRY.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO LIFT THROUGH THE AREA EITHER LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR SUNDAY EVENING. THE LOWEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP ON
SUNDAY WILL BE IN SOUTHEAST WI. OVERALL... THE HIGHEST CHANCES WILL
BE WEST AND NORTH OF MADISON.

CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MODERATED IN THE LOWER 70S
INLAND. INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL LEAD TO COOLER LAKESHORE
AREA TEMPERATURES.

BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT... THE STRONGEST AXIS OF THE LLJ WILL POINT
INTO NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHEAST MN. THIS SHOULD CAUSE A BREAK IN
PRECIP FOR SOUTHEAST WI... SO I REDUCED POPS DOWN TO CHANCE THERE.
MEANWHILE... A LOW LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL TRACK FROM NORTHEAST IOWA
AND SOUTHWEST WI INTO SOUTH CENTRAL WI LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. KEPT
LIKELY POPS FOR THIS AREA.

LONG TERM...

MEMORIAL DAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

THAT TROUGH AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK THROUGH SOUTHEAST WI MONDAY
MORNING. INSTABILITY IS STILL WEAK WITH THIS FEATURE... THUS
KEPT THE LIKELY RAIN SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WORDING.

MODELS ARE COMING INTO GREAT AGREEMENT THAT THE DRY SLOT WILL WRAP
INTO SOUTHERN WI MONDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE WARM SECTOR OVER THE
AREA... INSTABILITY INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY... ESPECIALLY WITH THE
NAM MODEL. BULK SHEAR BECOMES HIGH AS WELL WITH ANOTHER PUSH OF THE
LOW LEVEL JET INTO THE REGION. THE CWASP VALUES ON THE NAM ARE
AROUND 85 AND LOWER 70S FOR THE GFS. SPC ALSO NOTED THE STRONG
INSTABILITY AND ADDED MOST OF WISCONSIN TO THE MARGINAL... 5
PERCENT... RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER. THE INGREDIENT LACKING MONDAY
AFTERNOON IN SOUTHERN WI WILL BE A TRIGGER MECHANISM TO GET
THUNDERSTORMS. WE WILL BE CAPPED AROUND 750-800MB DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS... BUT A SURFACE TROUGH TRACKING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL WI EARLY
MONDAY EVENING MAY BE ENOUGH TO INDUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG. WE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS
SCENARIO.

THE DRY WARM SECTOR OVER SOUTHERN WI MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME SUNSHINE AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 INLAND. IT
SHOULD TURN OUT TO BE A VERY NICE MEMORIAL DAY AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

THE MAIN SURFACE TROUGH FROM THAT CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST WILL FINALLY SLIDE THROUGH SOUTHEAST WI TUESDAY. THE TROUGH
MAY STALL AND LEAD TO LINGERING SHOWER CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY... ALTHOUGH WEDNESDAY IS LOOKING DRIER WITH THE LATEST
MODEL RUNS.

MODELS DIFFER WITH TIMING OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN A SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW REGIME...LEADING TO A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. NEXT WEEKEND MAY END UP
BEING A WET ONE AGAIN.

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES.  INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED. SOME MAINLY VIRGA
POSSIBLE.

MARINE...

INCREASING SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR ON MEMORIAL DAY...AS A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER MINNESOTA. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR LATER SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MEMORIAL DAY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WOOD
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MRC





000
FXUS63 KMKX 231620 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1120 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...

ANOTHER NICE DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY...WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE AREA. MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE INTO THE
AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM AND 700 FRONTOGENESIS RESPONSE
FIELDS...ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWERS IN MINNESOTA...EXTENDS INTO THE
AREA INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...DRY AIR BELOW 6000 FEET
ABOVE GROUND LEVEL AND MODEST MOISTURE ABOVE IT SHOULD PREVENT ANY
SHOWER ACTIVITY.

BUMPED UP HIGHS A FEW DEGREES...GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS. HIGHS SHOULD
REACH THE UPPER 70S INLAND...WITH LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPING EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON AND COOLING THINGS DOWN NEAR THE LAKE.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING ACROSS TAF SITES. MIDDLE TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY
SPREAD NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...REMAINING CLOUDY ON SUNDAY. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS ARE
EXPECTED AT MADISON...WITH SOUTHEAST LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPING AT
EASTERN SITES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTH
TONIGHT AND THEN SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY...INCREASING DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE NORTHWARD INTO MADISON BY MID TO
LATE MORNING SUNDAY...AND THE EASTERN SITES EARLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE SCATTERED TOWARD THE EASTERN
SITES. WILL NOT MENTION THUNDER IN TAFS SUNDAY...AS RISK IS LOW
WITH STABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE. MAY SEE MVFR CATEGORY CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES DEVELOP WITH THE SHOWERS AT TIMES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS A
JET MAX INCREASES IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW OVER WISCONSIN...LIFTING TO
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES LATE TONIGHT. GENERALLY WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.  AN NARROW ELONGATED AREA OF
CYCLONIC VORTICITY LIFTS NORTH TROUGH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TODAY MID
LEVEL RH INCREASES TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH BANDS OF WEAK UPWARD
MOTION MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.  THE 850/700 MB WINDS ARE
FAIRLY WEAK AS THE LOWER AND MID LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.  THE DEVELOPING SOUTH 850 MB FLOW BEGINS TO PUSH
TOWARD SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY SUNRISE SUNDAY BUT THE 850/700 MB
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE STAYS SOUTHWEST.  THE NAM/GFS AND ECMWF ARE ALL
DRY THROUGH TONIGHT.  LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT WITH THE
APPROACHING INCREASE IN 850/700 MB WIND MAXIMA...AND SOME MAINLY MID
LEVEL VIRGA POSSIBLE WITH THE INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE TODAY.

WITH THE WEAK SURFACE RIDGE...A LAKE BREEZE WILL COOL THINGS OFF
NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN IN THE AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS OVER THE MIDWEST AND POINTS INTO
SOUTHERN WI SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WHILE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS WI. THERE IS A SLOWING TREND WITH THE PRECIP
ARRIVING INTO SOUTHERN WI... SO REDUCED POPS FOR THE FIRST PART OF
SUNDAY MORNING. AS IS THE CASE WITH ANY SHORTWAVE AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION- INDUCED PRECIP... TIMING OF THE ROUNDS OF PRECIP IS
UNCERTAIN.

THE FIRST WAVE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
LIFT THROUGH SOUTHERN WI LATE SUNDAY MORNING WITH A 500MB SHORTWAVE
AND 850MB-700MB FRONTOGENESIS ON THE NOSE OF A LOW LEVEL JET. THE
MOIST PROFILE WITH HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL LEAD TO
LIMITED INSTABILITY. THE NAM IS DRIEST WITH THIS FEATURE AND KEEPS
SOUTHEAST WI MOSTLY DRY.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO LIFT THROUGH THE AREA EITHER LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR SUNDAY EVENING. THE LOWEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP ON
SUNDAY WILL BE IN SOUTHEAST WI. OVERALL... THE HIGHEST CHANCES WILL
BE WEST AND NORTH OF MADISON.

CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MODERATED IN THE LOWER 70S
INLAND. INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL LEAD TO COOLER LAKESHORE
AREA TEMPERATURES.

BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT... THE STRONGEST AXIS OF THE LLJ WILL POINT
INTO NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHEAST MN. THIS SHOULD CAUSE A BREAK IN
PRECIP FOR SOUTHEAST WI... SO I REDUCED POPS DOWN TO CHANCE THERE.
MEANWHILE... A LOW LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL TRACK FROM NORTHEAST IOWA
AND SOUTHWEST WI INTO SOUTH CENTRAL WI LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. KEPT
LIKELY POPS FOR THIS AREA.

LONG TERM...

MEMORIAL DAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

THAT TROUGH AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK THROUGH SOUTHEAST WI MONDAY
MORNING. INSTABILITY IS STILL WEAK WITH THIS FEATURE... THUS
KEPT THE LIKELY RAIN SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WORDING.

MODELS ARE COMING INTO GREAT AGREEMENT THAT THE DRY SLOT WILL WRAP
INTO SOUTHERN WI MONDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE WARM SECTOR OVER THE
AREA... INSTABILITY INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY... ESPECIALLY WITH THE
NAM MODEL. BULK SHEAR BECOMES HIGH AS WELL WITH ANOTHER PUSH OF THE
LOW LEVEL JET INTO THE REGION. THE CWASP VALUES ON THE NAM ARE
AROUND 85 AND LOWER 70S FOR THE GFS. SPC ALSO NOTED THE STRONG
INSTABILITY AND ADDED MOST OF WISCONSIN TO THE MARGINAL... 5
PERCENT... RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER. THE INGREDIENT LACKING MONDAY
AFTERNOON IN SOUTHERN WI WILL BE A TRIGGER MECHANISM TO GET
THUNDERSTORMS. WE WILL BE CAPPED AROUND 750-800MB DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS... BUT A SURFACE TROUGH TRACKING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL WI EARLY
MONDAY EVENING MAY BE ENOUGH TO INDUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG. WE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS
SCENARIO.

THE DRY WARM SECTOR OVER SOUTHERN WI MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME SUNSHINE AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 INLAND. IT
SHOULD TURN OUT TO BE A VERY NICE MEMORIAL DAY AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

THE MAIN SURFACE TROUGH FROM THAT CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST WILL FINALLY SLIDE THROUGH SOUTHEAST WI TUESDAY. THE TROUGH
MAY STALL AND LEAD TO LINGERING SHOWER CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY... ALTHOUGH WEDNESDAY IS LOOKING DRIER WITH THE LATEST
MODEL RUNS.

MODELS DIFFER WITH TIMING OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN A SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW REGIME...LEADING TO A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. NEXT WEEKEND MAY END UP
BEING A WET ONE AGAIN.

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES.  INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED. SOME MAINLY VIRGA
POSSIBLE.

MARINE...

INCREASING SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR ON MEMORIAL DAY...AS A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER MINNESOTA. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR LATER SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MEMORIAL DAY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WOOD
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MRC




000
FXUS63 KMKX 230850
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
350 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS A
JET MAX INCREASES IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW OVER WISCONSIN...LIFTING TO
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES LATE TONIGHT. GENERALLY WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.  AN NARROW ELONGATED AREA OF
CYCLONIC VORTICITY LIFTS NORTH TROUGH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TODAY MID
LEVEL RH INCREASES TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH BANDS OF WEAK UPWARD
MOTION MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.  THE 850/700 MB WINDS ARE
FAIRLY WEAK AS THE LOWER AND MID LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.  THE DEVELOPING SOUTH 850 MB FLOW BEGINS TO PUSH
TOWARD SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY SUNRISE SUNDAY BUT THE 850/700 MB
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE STAYS SOUTHWEST.  THE NAM/GFS AND ECMWF ARE ALL
DRY THROUGH TONIGHT.  LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT WITH THE
APPROACHING INCREASE IN 850/700 MB WIND MAXIMA...AND SOME MAINLY MID
LEVEL VIRGA POSSIBLE WITH THE INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE TODAY.

WITH THE WEAK SURFACE RIDGE...A LAKE BREEZE WILL COOL THINGS OFF
NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN IN THE AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS OVER THE MIDWEST AND POINTS INTO
SOUTHERN WI SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WHILE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS WI. THERE IS A SLOWING TREND WITH THE PRECIP
ARRIVING INTO SOUTHERN WI... SO REDUCED POPS FOR THE FIRST PART OF
SUNDAY MORNING. AS IS THE CASE WITH ANY SHORTWAVE AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION- INDUCED PRECIP... TIMING OF THE ROUNDS OF PRECIP IS
UNCERTAIN.

THE FIRST WAVE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
LIFT THROUGH SOUTHERN WI LATE SUNDAY MORNING WITH A 500MB SHORTWAVE
AND 850MB-700MB FRONTOGENESIS ON THE NOSE OF A LOW LEVEL JET. THE
MOIST PROFILE WITH HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL LEAD TO
LIMITED INSTABILITY. THE NAM IS DRIEST WITH THIS FEATURE AND KEEPS
SOUTHEAST WI MOSTLY DRY.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO LIFT THROUGH THE AREA EITHER LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR SUNDAY EVENING. THE LOWEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP ON
SUNDAY WILL BE IN SOUTHEAST WI. OVERALL... THE HIGHEST CHANCES WILL
BE WEST AND NORTH OF MADISON.

CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MODERATED IN THE LOWER 70S
INLAND. INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL LEAD TO COOLER LAKESHORE
AREA TEMPERATURES.

BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT... THE STRONGEST AXIS OF THE LLJ WILL POINT
INTO NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHEAST MN. THIS SHOULD CAUSE A BREAK IN
PRECIP FOR SOUTHEAST WI... SO I REDUCED POPS DOWN TO CHANCE THERE.
MEANWHILE... A LOW LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL TRACK FROM NORTHEAST IOWA
AND SOUTHWEST WI INTO SOUTH CENTRAL WI LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. KEPT
LIKELY POPS FOR THIS AREA.

.LONG TERM...

MEMORIAL DAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

THAT TROUGH AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK THROUGH SOUTHEAST WI MONDAY
MORNING. INSTABILITY IS STILL WEAK WITH THIS FEATURE... THUS
KEPT THE LIKELY RAIN SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WORDING.

MODELS ARE COMING INTO GREAT AGREEMENT THAT THE DRY SLOT WILL WRAP
INTO SOUTHERN WI MONDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE WARM SECTOR OVER THE
AREA... INSTABILITY INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY... ESPECIALLY WITH THE
NAM MODEL. BULK SHEAR BECOMES HIGH AS WELL WITH ANOTHER PUSH OF THE
LOW LEVEL JET INTO THE REGION. THE CWASP VALUES ON THE NAM ARE
AROUND 85 AND LOWER 70S FOR THE GFS. SPC ALSO NOTED THE STRONG
INSTABILITY AND ADDED MOST OF WISCONSIN TO THE MARGINAL... 5
PERCENT... RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER. THE INGREDIENT LACKING MONDAY
AFTERNOON IN SOUTHERN WI WILL BE A TRIGGER MECHANISM TO GET
THUNDERSTORMS. WE WILL BE CAPPED AROUND 750-800MB DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS... BUT A SURFACE TROUGH TRACKING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL WI EARLY
MONDAY EVENING MAY BE ENOUGH TO INDUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG. WE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS
SCENARIO.

THE DRY WARM SECTOR OVER SOUTHERN WI MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME SUNSHINE AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 INLAND. IT
SHOULD TURN OUT TO BE A VERY NICE MEMORIAL DAY AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

THE MAIN SURFACE TROUGH FROM THAT CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST WILL FINALLY SLIDE THROUGH SOUTHEAST WI TUESDAY. THE TROUGH
MAY STALL AND LEAD TO LINGERING SHOWER CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY... ALTHOUGH WEDNESDAY IS LOOKING DRIER WITH THE LATEST
MODEL RUNS.

MODELS DIFFER WITH TIMING OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN A SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW REGIME...LEADING TO A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. NEXT WEEKEND MAY END UP
BEING A WET ONE AGAIN.

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES.  INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED. SOME MAINLY VIRGA
POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...

INCREASING SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR ON MEMORIAL DAY...AS A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER MINNESOTA. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR LATER SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MEMORIAL DAY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MRC
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HENTZ




000
FXUS63 KMKX 230850
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
350 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS A
JET MAX INCREASES IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW OVER WISCONSIN...LIFTING TO
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES LATE TONIGHT. GENERALLY WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.  AN NARROW ELONGATED AREA OF
CYCLONIC VORTICITY LIFTS NORTH TROUGH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TODAY MID
LEVEL RH INCREASES TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH BANDS OF WEAK UPWARD
MOTION MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.  THE 850/700 MB WINDS ARE
FAIRLY WEAK AS THE LOWER AND MID LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.  THE DEVELOPING SOUTH 850 MB FLOW BEGINS TO PUSH
TOWARD SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY SUNRISE SUNDAY BUT THE 850/700 MB
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE STAYS SOUTHWEST.  THE NAM/GFS AND ECMWF ARE ALL
DRY THROUGH TONIGHT.  LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT WITH THE
APPROACHING INCREASE IN 850/700 MB WIND MAXIMA...AND SOME MAINLY MID
LEVEL VIRGA POSSIBLE WITH THE INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE TODAY.

WITH THE WEAK SURFACE RIDGE...A LAKE BREEZE WILL COOL THINGS OFF
NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN IN THE AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS OVER THE MIDWEST AND POINTS INTO
SOUTHERN WI SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WHILE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS WI. THERE IS A SLOWING TREND WITH THE PRECIP
ARRIVING INTO SOUTHERN WI... SO REDUCED POPS FOR THE FIRST PART OF
SUNDAY MORNING. AS IS THE CASE WITH ANY SHORTWAVE AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION- INDUCED PRECIP... TIMING OF THE ROUNDS OF PRECIP IS
UNCERTAIN.

THE FIRST WAVE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
LIFT THROUGH SOUTHERN WI LATE SUNDAY MORNING WITH A 500MB SHORTWAVE
AND 850MB-700MB FRONTOGENESIS ON THE NOSE OF A LOW LEVEL JET. THE
MOIST PROFILE WITH HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL LEAD TO
LIMITED INSTABILITY. THE NAM IS DRIEST WITH THIS FEATURE AND KEEPS
SOUTHEAST WI MOSTLY DRY.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO LIFT THROUGH THE AREA EITHER LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR SUNDAY EVENING. THE LOWEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP ON
SUNDAY WILL BE IN SOUTHEAST WI. OVERALL... THE HIGHEST CHANCES WILL
BE WEST AND NORTH OF MADISON.

CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MODERATED IN THE LOWER 70S
INLAND. INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL LEAD TO COOLER LAKESHORE
AREA TEMPERATURES.

BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT... THE STRONGEST AXIS OF THE LLJ WILL POINT
INTO NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHEAST MN. THIS SHOULD CAUSE A BREAK IN
PRECIP FOR SOUTHEAST WI... SO I REDUCED POPS DOWN TO CHANCE THERE.
MEANWHILE... A LOW LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL TRACK FROM NORTHEAST IOWA
AND SOUTHWEST WI INTO SOUTH CENTRAL WI LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. KEPT
LIKELY POPS FOR THIS AREA.

.LONG TERM...

MEMORIAL DAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

THAT TROUGH AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK THROUGH SOUTHEAST WI MONDAY
MORNING. INSTABILITY IS STILL WEAK WITH THIS FEATURE... THUS
KEPT THE LIKELY RAIN SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WORDING.

MODELS ARE COMING INTO GREAT AGREEMENT THAT THE DRY SLOT WILL WRAP
INTO SOUTHERN WI MONDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE WARM SECTOR OVER THE
AREA... INSTABILITY INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY... ESPECIALLY WITH THE
NAM MODEL. BULK SHEAR BECOMES HIGH AS WELL WITH ANOTHER PUSH OF THE
LOW LEVEL JET INTO THE REGION. THE CWASP VALUES ON THE NAM ARE
AROUND 85 AND LOWER 70S FOR THE GFS. SPC ALSO NOTED THE STRONG
INSTABILITY AND ADDED MOST OF WISCONSIN TO THE MARGINAL... 5
PERCENT... RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER. THE INGREDIENT LACKING MONDAY
AFTERNOON IN SOUTHERN WI WILL BE A TRIGGER MECHANISM TO GET
THUNDERSTORMS. WE WILL BE CAPPED AROUND 750-800MB DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS... BUT A SURFACE TROUGH TRACKING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL WI EARLY
MONDAY EVENING MAY BE ENOUGH TO INDUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG. WE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS
SCENARIO.

THE DRY WARM SECTOR OVER SOUTHERN WI MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME SUNSHINE AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 INLAND. IT
SHOULD TURN OUT TO BE A VERY NICE MEMORIAL DAY AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

THE MAIN SURFACE TROUGH FROM THAT CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST WILL FINALLY SLIDE THROUGH SOUTHEAST WI TUESDAY. THE TROUGH
MAY STALL AND LEAD TO LINGERING SHOWER CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY... ALTHOUGH WEDNESDAY IS LOOKING DRIER WITH THE LATEST
MODEL RUNS.

MODELS DIFFER WITH TIMING OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN A SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW REGIME...LEADING TO A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. NEXT WEEKEND MAY END UP
BEING A WET ONE AGAIN.

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES.  INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED. SOME MAINLY VIRGA
POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...

INCREASING SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR ON MEMORIAL DAY...AS A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER MINNESOTA. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR LATER SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MEMORIAL DAY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MRC
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HENTZ





000
FXUS63 KMKX 230245
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
945 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...WENT A LITTLE MILDER WITH LOW TEMPS TNT GIVEN SCT-BKN
HIGH CLOUDS. THE HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD BECOME MORE SCT LATE TNT AND
SAT AM AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEAMPLIFIES. MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS
MAY THEN BECOME BROKEN AT TIMES SAT AFTERNOON DUE TO WARM
ADVECTION AT THAT LEVEL. HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 70S AWAY FROM THE
LAKE LOOK GOOD.


&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...SCT-BKN MIDDLE TO HIGH CLOUDS FOR SAT AND
SAT EVENING. A LIGHT SLY FLOW IS EXPECTED.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING TO THE EAST
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. ELONGATED 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM
IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. AREA OF MIDDLE TO HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN. MAY HAVE TO BRING THEM IN QUICKER THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST...WILL MAKE FINAL ADJUSTMENTS TO TIMING OF THESE
CLOUDS IF NEEDED.

SOME OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS ARE GENERATING SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME
MOISTURE AND VERY WEAK MEAN LAYER CAPE ABOVE 5000 FEET ABOVE GROUND
LEVEL. HOWEVER...THINK THAT UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WILL BE TOO
WEAK...AND LOW LEVELS TOO DRY...FOR ANY SHOWERS TO REACH THE GROUND.
KEPT DRY FORECAST GOING FOR NOW.

925 MB TEMPERATURE TRENDS SUGGEST LOWS DROPPING INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 40S EAST AND UPPER 40S WEST. HIGHS FRIDAY SHOULD REACH THE MID
70S INLAND...AND AROUND 70 LAKESIDE. LAKE BREEZE WILL COOL THINGS
OFF NEAR THE LAKE IN THE AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

SATURDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

DECENT FRONTOGENETIC RESPONSE WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION AND FORCING
WITH PASSAGE OF LEAD SHORT WAVE. HOWEVER CROSS SECTIONS AND
SOUNDINGS REMAIN DRY BELOW 5K FT OVER THE EASTERN CWA. DEEPER COLUMN
MOISTURE AND STRONGER 700 MB OMEGA MOVES INTO WESTERN AREAS CLOSER
TO STRONGER LOW-LEVEL WINDS AFTER 06Z...SO WILL HAVE HIGHER CHANCE
POPS THERE...TAPERING OFF QUICKLY TO THE EAST WITH MOST OF SE WI DRY
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW KEEPS LOWS IN THE MID50S...WITH
UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S CLOSER TO LAKE MICHIGAN.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

WILL WALK HIGHER POPS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS FORECAST AREA DURING
THE DAY SUNDAY AS LOW-LEVEL JET SHIFTS EAST...WITH THE HIGHER POPS
SUNDAY EVENING AS THE STRONGEST WINDS PUSH INTO THE STATE. OVERALL
FORCING FOR ASCENT AIDED BY UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IN RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF UPPER JET. FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL SHOWING LIMITED
INSTABILITY WITH A WEAK WARM LAYER CENTERED AROUND 760 MB AND A
MOIST ADIABATIC PROFILE HOLDING BOTH SURFACE-BASED AND ELEVATED CAPE
TO 600 J/KG OR LESS...THOUGH NAM HAS A POCKET OF 1000 J/KG IN THE
FAR WEST. WILL HAVE THUNDER THERE...WITH MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS AND A
FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE IN THE CWA. SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL LIMIT HIGHS TO THE LOW 60S ALONG THE LAKE...WARMING TO
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S AWAY FROM THE LAKE. LOWS SUNDAY WILL ONLY
FALL INTO THE LOWER 60S INLAND...WITH LOW TO MID 50S IN THE FAR
EAST.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

BETTER PROBABILITY FOR THUNDER ON MONDAY...ESPECIALLY IF THE GFS
SOLUTION PANS OUT WITH THE FORECAST AREA WELL INTO THE SURFACE WARM
SECTOR. POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE SOMEWHAT LIMITED WITH BACKING WINDS
ABOVE 10K FEET AND A CONTINUATION OF LIMITED INSTABILITY WITH A
MOIST ADIABATIC PROFILE. HOWEVER THE TALL-SKINNY CAPE AND THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGING GULF MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS IN
THE 1.7 TO 1.8 INCH RANGE INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR SOME WIDESPREAD
BENEFICIAL RAIN. TEMPS WARM INTO THE 70S EVERYWHERE WITH SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST WINDS LIMITING INFLUENCE OF THE LAKE.

ALL MODELS INDICATE PCPN TAPERS OFF IN THE AFTERNOON WITH A DRY
PUNCH...MORE PRONOUNCED ON THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN...WRAPPING INTO
SRN WI. PCPN TRIES TO DEVELOP ALONG TRAILING SURFACE TROUGH/COOL
FRONT...BUT THIS FEATURE WASHES OUT AS SURFACE LOW WEAKENS/OPENS UP
AS IT TRACKS FROM THE NORTH DAKOTA/MN BORDER REGION INTO SW ONTARIO.
CONSENSUS LOWS IN THE 60S LOOK REASONABLE.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

MODELS DIFFER AFTER TUESDAY WITH TIMING OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN SWLY
FLOW REGIME...LEADING TO CHANCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE
EXTENDED. BEST POTENTIAL FOR A DRY PERIOD LOOKS TO BE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THEN PCPN CHANCES RETURN WITH THE
MOIST FLOW AHEAD OF ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING OUT FROM THE SW U.S.
INTO THE SRN PLAINS THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT PHASING WITH A
STRONGERNORTHERN STREAM TROUGH. IN SPITE OF THE
PCPN...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS TAF SITES TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL DRIFT TO THE EAST
SOUTHEAST DURING THIS TIME. LIGHT EAST WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT AND SOUTH INTO SATURDAY.

LAKE BREEZE WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT MILWAUKEE AND
KENOSHA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MIDDLE TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE EAST NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

MARINE...

GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR ON MEMORIAL
DAY...AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA.
FREQUENT GUSTS OF 22 TO 25 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NEARSHORE
WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR
MEMORIAL DAY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEHRING
TONIGHT/SATURDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...WOOD
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...REM





000
FXUS63 KMKX 230245
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
945 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...WENT A LITTLE MILDER WITH LOW TEMPS TNT GIVEN SCT-BKN
HIGH CLOUDS. THE HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD BECOME MORE SCT LATE TNT AND
SAT AM AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEAMPLIFIES. MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS
MAY THEN BECOME BROKEN AT TIMES SAT AFTERNOON DUE TO WARM
ADVECTION AT THAT LEVEL. HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 70S AWAY FROM THE
LAKE LOOK GOOD.


&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...SCT-BKN MIDDLE TO HIGH CLOUDS FOR SAT AND
SAT EVENING. A LIGHT SLY FLOW IS EXPECTED.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING TO THE EAST
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. ELONGATED 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM
IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. AREA OF MIDDLE TO HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN. MAY HAVE TO BRING THEM IN QUICKER THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST...WILL MAKE FINAL ADJUSTMENTS TO TIMING OF THESE
CLOUDS IF NEEDED.

SOME OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS ARE GENERATING SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME
MOISTURE AND VERY WEAK MEAN LAYER CAPE ABOVE 5000 FEET ABOVE GROUND
LEVEL. HOWEVER...THINK THAT UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WILL BE TOO
WEAK...AND LOW LEVELS TOO DRY...FOR ANY SHOWERS TO REACH THE GROUND.
KEPT DRY FORECAST GOING FOR NOW.

925 MB TEMPERATURE TRENDS SUGGEST LOWS DROPPING INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 40S EAST AND UPPER 40S WEST. HIGHS FRIDAY SHOULD REACH THE MID
70S INLAND...AND AROUND 70 LAKESIDE. LAKE BREEZE WILL COOL THINGS
OFF NEAR THE LAKE IN THE AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

SATURDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

DECENT FRONTOGENETIC RESPONSE WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION AND FORCING
WITH PASSAGE OF LEAD SHORT WAVE. HOWEVER CROSS SECTIONS AND
SOUNDINGS REMAIN DRY BELOW 5K FT OVER THE EASTERN CWA. DEEPER COLUMN
MOISTURE AND STRONGER 700 MB OMEGA MOVES INTO WESTERN AREAS CLOSER
TO STRONGER LOW-LEVEL WINDS AFTER 06Z...SO WILL HAVE HIGHER CHANCE
POPS THERE...TAPERING OFF QUICKLY TO THE EAST WITH MOST OF SE WI DRY
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW KEEPS LOWS IN THE MID50S...WITH
UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S CLOSER TO LAKE MICHIGAN.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

WILL WALK HIGHER POPS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS FORECAST AREA DURING
THE DAY SUNDAY AS LOW-LEVEL JET SHIFTS EAST...WITH THE HIGHER POPS
SUNDAY EVENING AS THE STRONGEST WINDS PUSH INTO THE STATE. OVERALL
FORCING FOR ASCENT AIDED BY UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IN RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF UPPER JET. FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL SHOWING LIMITED
INSTABILITY WITH A WEAK WARM LAYER CENTERED AROUND 760 MB AND A
MOIST ADIABATIC PROFILE HOLDING BOTH SURFACE-BASED AND ELEVATED CAPE
TO 600 J/KG OR LESS...THOUGH NAM HAS A POCKET OF 1000 J/KG IN THE
FAR WEST. WILL HAVE THUNDER THERE...WITH MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS AND A
FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE IN THE CWA. SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL LIMIT HIGHS TO THE LOW 60S ALONG THE LAKE...WARMING TO
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S AWAY FROM THE LAKE. LOWS SUNDAY WILL ONLY
FALL INTO THE LOWER 60S INLAND...WITH LOW TO MID 50S IN THE FAR
EAST.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

BETTER PROBABILITY FOR THUNDER ON MONDAY...ESPECIALLY IF THE GFS
SOLUTION PANS OUT WITH THE FORECAST AREA WELL INTO THE SURFACE WARM
SECTOR. POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE SOMEWHAT LIMITED WITH BACKING WINDS
ABOVE 10K FEET AND A CONTINUATION OF LIMITED INSTABILITY WITH A
MOIST ADIABATIC PROFILE. HOWEVER THE TALL-SKINNY CAPE AND THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGING GULF MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS IN
THE 1.7 TO 1.8 INCH RANGE INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR SOME WIDESPREAD
BENEFICIAL RAIN. TEMPS WARM INTO THE 70S EVERYWHERE WITH SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST WINDS LIMITING INFLUENCE OF THE LAKE.

ALL MODELS INDICATE PCPN TAPERS OFF IN THE AFTERNOON WITH A DRY
PUNCH...MORE PRONOUNCED ON THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN...WRAPPING INTO
SRN WI. PCPN TRIES TO DEVELOP ALONG TRAILING SURFACE TROUGH/COOL
FRONT...BUT THIS FEATURE WASHES OUT AS SURFACE LOW WEAKENS/OPENS UP
AS IT TRACKS FROM THE NORTH DAKOTA/MN BORDER REGION INTO SW ONTARIO.
CONSENSUS LOWS IN THE 60S LOOK REASONABLE.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

MODELS DIFFER AFTER TUESDAY WITH TIMING OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN SWLY
FLOW REGIME...LEADING TO CHANCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE
EXTENDED. BEST POTENTIAL FOR A DRY PERIOD LOOKS TO BE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THEN PCPN CHANCES RETURN WITH THE
MOIST FLOW AHEAD OF ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING OUT FROM THE SW U.S.
INTO THE SRN PLAINS THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT PHASING WITH A
STRONGERNORTHERN STREAM TROUGH. IN SPITE OF THE
PCPN...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS TAF SITES TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL DRIFT TO THE EAST
SOUTHEAST DURING THIS TIME. LIGHT EAST WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT AND SOUTH INTO SATURDAY.

LAKE BREEZE WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT MILWAUKEE AND
KENOSHA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MIDDLE TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE EAST NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

MARINE...

GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR ON MEMORIAL
DAY...AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA.
FREQUENT GUSTS OF 22 TO 25 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NEARSHORE
WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR
MEMORIAL DAY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEHRING
TONIGHT/SATURDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...WOOD
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...REM




000
FXUS63 KMKX 222032
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
332 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING TO THE EAST
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. ELONGATED 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM
IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. AREA OF MIDDLE TO HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN. MAY HAVE TO BRING THEM IN QUICKER THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST...WILL MAKE FINAL ADJUSTMENTS TO TIMING OF THESE
CLOUDS IF NEEDED.

SOME OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS ARE GENERATING SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME
MOISTURE AND VERY WEAK MEAN LAYER CAPE ABOVE 5000 FEET ABOVE GROUND
LEVEL. HOWEVER...THINK THAT UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WILL BE TOO
WEAK...AND LOW LEVELS TOO DRY...FOR ANY SHOWERS TO REACH THE GROUND.
KEPT DRY FORECAST GOING FOR NOW.

925 MB TEMPERATURE TRENDS SUGGEST LOWS DROPPING INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 40S EAST AND UPPER 40S WEST. HIGHS FRIDAY SHOULD REACH THE MID
70S INLAND...AND AROUND 70 LAKESIDE. LAKE BREEZE WILL COOL THINGS
OFF NEAR THE LAKE IN THE AFTERNOON.

.SHORT TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

SATURDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

DECENT FRONTOGENETIC RESPONSE WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION AND FORCING
WITH PASSAGE OF LEAD SHORT WAVE. HOWEVER CROSS SECTIONS AND
SOUNDINGS REMAIN DRY BELOW 5K FT OVER THE EASTERN CWA. DEEPER COLUMN
MOISTURE AND STRONGER 700 MB OMEGA MOVES INTO WESTERN AREAS CLOSER
TO STRONGER LOW-LEVEL WINDS AFTER 06Z...SO WILL HAVE HIGHER CHANCE
POPS THERE...TAPERING OFF QUICKLY TO THE EAST WITH MOST OF SE WI DRY
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW KEEPS LOWS IN THE MID50S...WITH
UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S CLOSER TO LAKE MICHIGAN.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

WILL WALK HIGHER POPS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS FORECAST AREA DURING
THE DAY SUNDAY AS LOW-LEVEL JET SHIFTS EAST...WITH THE HIGHER POPS
SUNDAY EVENING AS THE STRONGEST WINDS PUSH INTO THE STATE. OVERALL
FORCING FOR ASCENT AIDED BY UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IN RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF UPPER JET. FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL SHOWING LIMITED
INSTABILITY WITH A WEAK WARM LAYER CENTERED AROUND 760 MB AND A
MOIST ADIABATIC PROFILE HOLDING BOTH SURFACE-BASED AND ELEVATED CAPE
TO 600 J/KG OR LESS...THOUGH NAM HAS A POCKET OF 1000 J/KG IN THE
FAR WEST. WILL HAVE THUNDER THERE...WITH MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS AND A
FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE IN THE CWA. SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL LIMIT HIGHS TO THE LOW 60S ALONG THE LAKE...WARMING TO
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S AWAY FROM THE LAKE. LOWS SUNDAY WILL ONLY
FALL INTO THE LOWER 60S INLAND...WITH LOW TO MID 50S IN THE FAR
EAST.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

BETTER PROBABILITY FOR THUNDER ON MONDAY...ESPECIALLY IF THE GFS
SOLUTION PANS OUT WITH THE FORECAST AREA WELL INTO THE SURFACE WARM
SECTOR. POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE SOMEWHAT LIMITED WITH BACKING WINDS
ABOVE 10K FEET AND A CONTINUATION OF LIMITED INSTABILITY WITH A
MOIST ADIABATIC PROFILE. HOWEVER THE TALL-SKINNY CAPE AND THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGING GULF MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS IN
THE 1.7 TO 1.8 INCH RANGE INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR SOME WIDESPREAD
BENEFICIAL RAIN. TEMPS WARM INTO THE 70S EVERYWHERE WITH SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST WINDS LIMITING INFLUENCE OF THE LAKE.

ALL MODELS INDICATE PCPN TAPERS OFF IN THE AFTERNOON WITH A DRY
PUNCH...MORE PRONOUNCED ON THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN...WRAPPING INTO
SRN WI. PCPN TRIES TO DEVELOP ALONG TRAILING SURFACE TROUGH/COOL
FRONT...BUT THIS FEATURE WASHES OUT AS SURFACE LOW WEAKENS/OPENS UP
AS IT TRACKS FROM THE NORTH DAKOTA/MN BORDER REGION INTO SW ONTARIO.
CONSENSUS LOWS IN THE 60S LOOK REASONABLE.


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

MODELS DIFFER AFTER TUESDAY WITH TIMING OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN SWLY
FLOW REGIME...LEADING TO CHANCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE
EXTENDED. BEST POTENTIAL FOR A DRY PERIOD LOOKS TO BE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THEN PCPN CHANCES RETURN WITH THE
MOSIT FLOW AHEAD OF ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING OUT FROM THE SW U.S. INTO
THE SRN PLAINS THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT PHASING WITH ASTRONGER
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH. IN SPITE OF THE PCPN...TEMPERATURES LOOK
TO REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS TAF SITES TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL DRIFT TO THE EAST
SOUTHEAST DURING THIS TIME. LIGHT EAST WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT AND SOUTH INTO SATURDAY.

LAKE BREEZE WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT MILWAUKEE AND
KENOSHA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MIDDLE TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE EAST NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR ON MEMORIAL
DAY...AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA.
FREQUENT GUSTS OF 22 TO 25 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NEARSHORE
WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR
MEMORIAL DAY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TONIGHT/SATURDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...WOOD
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...REM





000
FXUS63 KMKX 222032
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
332 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING TO THE EAST
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. ELONGATED 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM
IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. AREA OF MIDDLE TO HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN. MAY HAVE TO BRING THEM IN QUICKER THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST...WILL MAKE FINAL ADJUSTMENTS TO TIMING OF THESE
CLOUDS IF NEEDED.

SOME OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS ARE GENERATING SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME
MOISTURE AND VERY WEAK MEAN LAYER CAPE ABOVE 5000 FEET ABOVE GROUND
LEVEL. HOWEVER...THINK THAT UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WILL BE TOO
WEAK...AND LOW LEVELS TOO DRY...FOR ANY SHOWERS TO REACH THE GROUND.
KEPT DRY FORECAST GOING FOR NOW.

925 MB TEMPERATURE TRENDS SUGGEST LOWS DROPPING INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 40S EAST AND UPPER 40S WEST. HIGHS FRIDAY SHOULD REACH THE MID
70S INLAND...AND AROUND 70 LAKESIDE. LAKE BREEZE WILL COOL THINGS
OFF NEAR THE LAKE IN THE AFTERNOON.

.SHORT TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

SATURDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

DECENT FRONTOGENETIC RESPONSE WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION AND FORCING
WITH PASSAGE OF LEAD SHORT WAVE. HOWEVER CROSS SECTIONS AND
SOUNDINGS REMAIN DRY BELOW 5K FT OVER THE EASTERN CWA. DEEPER COLUMN
MOISTURE AND STRONGER 700 MB OMEGA MOVES INTO WESTERN AREAS CLOSER
TO STRONGER LOW-LEVEL WINDS AFTER 06Z...SO WILL HAVE HIGHER CHANCE
POPS THERE...TAPERING OFF QUICKLY TO THE EAST WITH MOST OF SE WI DRY
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW KEEPS LOWS IN THE MID50S...WITH
UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S CLOSER TO LAKE MICHIGAN.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

WILL WALK HIGHER POPS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS FORECAST AREA DURING
THE DAY SUNDAY AS LOW-LEVEL JET SHIFTS EAST...WITH THE HIGHER POPS
SUNDAY EVENING AS THE STRONGEST WINDS PUSH INTO THE STATE. OVERALL
FORCING FOR ASCENT AIDED BY UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IN RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF UPPER JET. FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL SHOWING LIMITED
INSTABILITY WITH A WEAK WARM LAYER CENTERED AROUND 760 MB AND A
MOIST ADIABATIC PROFILE HOLDING BOTH SURFACE-BASED AND ELEVATED CAPE
TO 600 J/KG OR LESS...THOUGH NAM HAS A POCKET OF 1000 J/KG IN THE
FAR WEST. WILL HAVE THUNDER THERE...WITH MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS AND A
FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE IN THE CWA. SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL LIMIT HIGHS TO THE LOW 60S ALONG THE LAKE...WARMING TO
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S AWAY FROM THE LAKE. LOWS SUNDAY WILL ONLY
FALL INTO THE LOWER 60S INLAND...WITH LOW TO MID 50S IN THE FAR
EAST.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

BETTER PROBABILITY FOR THUNDER ON MONDAY...ESPECIALLY IF THE GFS
SOLUTION PANS OUT WITH THE FORECAST AREA WELL INTO THE SURFACE WARM
SECTOR. POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE SOMEWHAT LIMITED WITH BACKING WINDS
ABOVE 10K FEET AND A CONTINUATION OF LIMITED INSTABILITY WITH A
MOIST ADIABATIC PROFILE. HOWEVER THE TALL-SKINNY CAPE AND THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGING GULF MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS IN
THE 1.7 TO 1.8 INCH RANGE INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR SOME WIDESPREAD
BENEFICIAL RAIN. TEMPS WARM INTO THE 70S EVERYWHERE WITH SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST WINDS LIMITING INFLUENCE OF THE LAKE.

ALL MODELS INDICATE PCPN TAPERS OFF IN THE AFTERNOON WITH A DRY
PUNCH...MORE PRONOUNCED ON THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN...WRAPPING INTO
SRN WI. PCPN TRIES TO DEVELOP ALONG TRAILING SURFACE TROUGH/COOL
FRONT...BUT THIS FEATURE WASHES OUT AS SURFACE LOW WEAKENS/OPENS UP
AS IT TRACKS FROM THE NORTH DAKOTA/MN BORDER REGION INTO SW ONTARIO.
CONSENSUS LOWS IN THE 60S LOOK REASONABLE.


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

MODELS DIFFER AFTER TUESDAY WITH TIMING OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN SWLY
FLOW REGIME...LEADING TO CHANCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE
EXTENDED. BEST POTENTIAL FOR A DRY PERIOD LOOKS TO BE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THEN PCPN CHANCES RETURN WITH THE
MOSIT FLOW AHEAD OF ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING OUT FROM THE SW U.S. INTO
THE SRN PLAINS THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT PHASING WITH ASTRONGER
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH. IN SPITE OF THE PCPN...TEMPERATURES LOOK
TO REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS TAF SITES TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL DRIFT TO THE EAST
SOUTHEAST DURING THIS TIME. LIGHT EAST WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT AND SOUTH INTO SATURDAY.

LAKE BREEZE WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT MILWAUKEE AND
KENOSHA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MIDDLE TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE EAST NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR ON MEMORIAL
DAY...AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA.
FREQUENT GUSTS OF 22 TO 25 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NEARSHORE
WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR
MEMORIAL DAY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TONIGHT/SATURDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...WOOD
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...REM




000
FXUS63 KMKX 221507 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1007 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A NICE DAY ACROSS THE AREA.
DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL ALLOW FOR SUNNY SKIES THROUGH THE REST
OF TODAY. DEW POINTS MAY MIX DOWN A BIT MORE THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST...WHICH WOULD BRING RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES INTO THE 20
TO 25 PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON WELL INLAND. EASTERLY WINDS
WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE 50S NEAR THE LAKE...WITH LOWER TO MID 70S
WELL INLAND.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION
WILL DRIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. LIGHT EAST WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND SOUTH INTO
SATURDAY.

LAKE BREEZE WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT MILWAUKEE AND
KENOSHA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS ON SATURDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

MORE SUNSHINE FOR TODAY THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE. AN EASTERLY WIND
WILL KEEP THE SOUTHEAST...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LAKE...MUCH COOLER
TODAY COMPARED TO AREAS WEST OF MADISON. ADDITIONALLY...THE AIR
WILL BE QUITE DRY WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 30S. THIS WILL SET UP THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THIS
EVENING...BEFORE HIGH CLOUDS SPILL IN. LOWS IN THE SOUTHEAST COULD
DIP TO NEAR 40...POSSIBLY UPPER 30S IN TYPICAL LOW SPOTS. WARMER
LOWS WILL BE FOUND SOUTHWEST OF MADISON.

SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

AN UPPER LOW DRIFTING OVER THE ROCKIES WILL LIFT INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ON SATURDAY...A WEAKENING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH...850 MB WARM FRONT AND A STRENGTHENING UPPER JET
OVER THE REGION WILL SWING NORTHWARD THROUGH WI. THERE IS A VERY
SMALL RISK FOR LIGHT SHOWERS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AS MID LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES. WEAK FORCING AND DRY LOW LEVELS ARE THE
LIMITING FACTORS...SO KEPT THE FORECAST DRY.

THE FORCING OVER SOUTHERN WI IS EVEN WEAKER SATURDAY NIGHT...SO
DECREASED PRECIP CHANCES. IF THE SUNDAY SYSTEM SPEEDS UP...THERE
IS A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER WITH THE
WARM AIR ADVECTION EARLY SUNDAY MORNING IN SOUTH CENTRAL WI.

INCREASING CLOUDS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN
CHECK DESPITE THE WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 70S. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR A LAKE BREEZE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...

SUNDAY AND MEMORIAL DAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS OVER THE MIDWEST AND POINTS INTO
SOUTHERN WI SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WHILE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS WI. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH 850MB WARM
AIR ADVECTION AND THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET AND
GIVE US A GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS ON SUNDAY. THE NAM DEPICTS
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS DURING THE DAY INTO THE EVENING. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW A MOIST ADIABATIC PROFILE WITH VERY LIMITED
INSTABILITY...SO WENT PRIMARILY WITH SMALLER CHANCES FOR THUNDER.

ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY. TIMING WITH THIS
ROUND IS LESS CERTAIN SINCE THE ECMWF IS FASTER THAN THE GFS WITH
LIFTING THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WI
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL KEEP TEMPS DOWN INTO THE LOWER 70S ON
SUNDAY. IF THAT SYSTEM CAN LIFT NORTHWARD QUICKLY ENOUGH TO ALLOW
SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS MONDAY AFTERNOON...EXPECT A WARMER DAY
IN THE MID 70S.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

THE UPPER LOW PARKED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL WEAKEN AND
SLOWLY SHIFT EAST TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL KEEP SOUTHERN WI IN A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. THE
GFS IS SHOWING DECENT INSTABILITY WITH STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...BUT SHEAR IS WEAK...SO NOTHING SEVERE EXPECTED. ANOTHER
UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS TO SOUTHERN WI ON WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WILL BE 1.15 TO 1.4 INCHES NEXT WEEK.

AN ACTIVE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL KEEP REPEATED PRECIP CHANCES
OVER SOUTHERN WI THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE WARM...IN THE UPPER 70S.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER...VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WOOD
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DAVIS
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MRC





000
FXUS63 KMKX 221507 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1007 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A NICE DAY ACROSS THE AREA.
DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL ALLOW FOR SUNNY SKIES THROUGH THE REST
OF TODAY. DEW POINTS MAY MIX DOWN A BIT MORE THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST...WHICH WOULD BRING RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES INTO THE 20
TO 25 PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON WELL INLAND. EASTERLY WINDS
WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE 50S NEAR THE LAKE...WITH LOWER TO MID 70S
WELL INLAND.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION
WILL DRIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. LIGHT EAST WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND SOUTH INTO
SATURDAY.

LAKE BREEZE WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT MILWAUKEE AND
KENOSHA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS ON SATURDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

MORE SUNSHINE FOR TODAY THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE. AN EASTERLY WIND
WILL KEEP THE SOUTHEAST...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LAKE...MUCH COOLER
TODAY COMPARED TO AREAS WEST OF MADISON. ADDITIONALLY...THE AIR
WILL BE QUITE DRY WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 30S. THIS WILL SET UP THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THIS
EVENING...BEFORE HIGH CLOUDS SPILL IN. LOWS IN THE SOUTHEAST COULD
DIP TO NEAR 40...POSSIBLY UPPER 30S IN TYPICAL LOW SPOTS. WARMER
LOWS WILL BE FOUND SOUTHWEST OF MADISON.

SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

AN UPPER LOW DRIFTING OVER THE ROCKIES WILL LIFT INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ON SATURDAY...A WEAKENING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH...850 MB WARM FRONT AND A STRENGTHENING UPPER JET
OVER THE REGION WILL SWING NORTHWARD THROUGH WI. THERE IS A VERY
SMALL RISK FOR LIGHT SHOWERS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AS MID LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES. WEAK FORCING AND DRY LOW LEVELS ARE THE
LIMITING FACTORS...SO KEPT THE FORECAST DRY.

THE FORCING OVER SOUTHERN WI IS EVEN WEAKER SATURDAY NIGHT...SO
DECREASED PRECIP CHANCES. IF THE SUNDAY SYSTEM SPEEDS UP...THERE
IS A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER WITH THE
WARM AIR ADVECTION EARLY SUNDAY MORNING IN SOUTH CENTRAL WI.

INCREASING CLOUDS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN
CHECK DESPITE THE WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 70S. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR A LAKE BREEZE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...

SUNDAY AND MEMORIAL DAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS OVER THE MIDWEST AND POINTS INTO
SOUTHERN WI SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WHILE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS WI. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH 850MB WARM
AIR ADVECTION AND THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET AND
GIVE US A GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS ON SUNDAY. THE NAM DEPICTS
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS DURING THE DAY INTO THE EVENING. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW A MOIST ADIABATIC PROFILE WITH VERY LIMITED
INSTABILITY...SO WENT PRIMARILY WITH SMALLER CHANCES FOR THUNDER.

ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY. TIMING WITH THIS
ROUND IS LESS CERTAIN SINCE THE ECMWF IS FASTER THAN THE GFS WITH
LIFTING THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WI
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL KEEP TEMPS DOWN INTO THE LOWER 70S ON
SUNDAY. IF THAT SYSTEM CAN LIFT NORTHWARD QUICKLY ENOUGH TO ALLOW
SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS MONDAY AFTERNOON...EXPECT A WARMER DAY
IN THE MID 70S.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

THE UPPER LOW PARKED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL WEAKEN AND
SLOWLY SHIFT EAST TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL KEEP SOUTHERN WI IN A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. THE
GFS IS SHOWING DECENT INSTABILITY WITH STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...BUT SHEAR IS WEAK...SO NOTHING SEVERE EXPECTED. ANOTHER
UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS TO SOUTHERN WI ON WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WILL BE 1.15 TO 1.4 INCHES NEXT WEEK.

AN ACTIVE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL KEEP REPEATED PRECIP CHANCES
OVER SOUTHERN WI THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE WARM...IN THE UPPER 70S.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER...VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WOOD
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DAVIS
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MRC




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