Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS63 KMKX 180824
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
324 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXITING THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL PUSH INTO
THE PLAINS TONIGHT...AS A RIDGE BUILDS SLIGHTLY OVER THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY REGION TOWARDS LAKE MICHIGAN. THE UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MEANWHILE A MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE JUST NORTHEAST OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE
OFF INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA. 700 MB UPWARD MOTION INCREASES MAINLY
LATE TONIGHT. AN 850/800 MB WIND MAX REACHES THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BY EARLY EVENING. 700 MB RH SATURATES OVER THE NOSE OF THE
WIND MAX...BUT THIS OCCURS NORTHWEST OF THE DELLS. THEREFORE ONLY
SMALL CHANCES OF LIGHT SHOWERS OVER WEST AREAS LATE TONIGHT.

A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
THIS MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
PERHAPS SOME BRIEF LOW CLOUDS...NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN...BUT NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. BEHIND THE
FRONT...WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE EAST AT 15 MPH GUSTING UP TO 22
MPH. GUSTS SHOULD EASE IN THE AFTERNOON. THESE EAST WINDS WILL
BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN WHAT WE HAVE HAD IN THE LAST FEW
DAYS...WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN.

.SHORT TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH TAKING WEAK SURFACE LOW NORTHEAST
FROM CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND DISSIPATING SUNDAY. A MORE ORGANIZED
LOW SLIDES NORTHWARD FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TO
NORTHWEST INDIANA DURING THIS TIME...THEN SLIDES NORTH NORTHEAST
INTO NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. THERE IS SOME VARIATION IN THE EXACT
TRACK OF THE LOW IN THE MODELS.

850 MB LOW TAKES A SIMILAR TRACK TO THE SURFACE LOW.
GFS/CANADIAN/ECMWF SHOWING SEVERAL WEAK 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMA
MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA...WITH THE NAM AN OUTLIER WITH A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THERE IS A DECENT AMOUNT OF LOW TO MID
LEVEL Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE THAT MOVES NORTH NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS SLOWLY MOISTEN WEST TO EAST SUNDAY...WITH
SATURATION MAINLY LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. THERE IS SOME
VARIABILITY ON QPF AMOUNTS AS WELL. FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE HIGHER
END POPS FOR MAINLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. REMOVED THUNDER
AS LITTLE TO NO INSTABILITY WAS SEEN ON AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS.
ONSHORE WINDS WILL KEEP HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE 50S NEAR THE LAKE...TO
THE LOWER 60S INLAND.

STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION THEN MOVES INTO THE REGION LATER SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY...LINGERING INTO MONDAY NIGHT. BRISK WEST WINDS
WITHIN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING COLDER TEMPERATURES
INTO THE REGION...WHICH SHOULD LINGER FOR A GOOD PART OF NEXT
WEEK.

A CLOSED 500 MB LOW SHOULD SLOWLY SLIDE EAST SOUTHEAST INTO LAKE
SUPERIOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. SEVERAL 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMA
SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA DURING THIS TIME. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WITH A SMALL AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY DEVELOP BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON ON AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
MIXING TO CONTINUE THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET COLD ENOUGH LATER MONDAY NIGHT FOR
A MIX OF RAIN AND SHOW SHOWERS IN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

CLOSED 500 MB LOW SHOWN ON GFS/ECMWF TO CONTINUE TO SHIFT SLOWLY
EASTWARD ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TUESDAY INTO EAST CENTRAL ONTARIO
CANADA WEDNESDAY. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN ON TUESDAY
WITH A SMALL AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY...AND GUSTY WINDS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR DEEP MIXING.

THUS...CONTINUED LOWER END POPS FOR SHOWERS TUESDAY...AND TUESDAY
NIGHT EAST. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE DURING THIS
TIME. THINGS DRY OUT ENOUGH FOR A DRY WEDNESDAY. GFS/ECMWF
CONTINUE TO DIFFER WITH TRENDS LATER IN THE WEEK...SO WILL FOLLOW
CONSENSUS OF MODELS FOR POPS AND TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

AREAS OF MVFR HAZE WILL BE FOUND NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN EARLY THIS
MORNING. OTHERWISE...A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL LEAD TO GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS THIS MORNING. VISIBILITIES AND PERHAPS CIGS MAY
BRIEFLY DROP TO MVFR ALONG THE FRONT NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN THIS
MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS DRY AIR IS IN PLACE AHEAD
OF AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...

A TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA WILL ACCELERATE SOUTH OVER LAKE MICHIGAN EARLY
THIS MORNING...MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE
MI FROM 5 OR 6 AM NEAR SHEBOYGAN TO AROUND 8 AM AT KENOSHA.
NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 TO 30 KTS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. BRISK AND GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. WAVES WILL QUICKLY BUILD TO 3 TO
5 FEET DURING THE MORNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL EXIST OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH 70
DEGREES SOUTHWEST OF MADISON. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
SOUTH THIS MORNING. BEHIND THIS FRONT...THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL
DROP TO NEAR 25 PERCENT WITH EAST WINDS UP TO 15 MPH WITH SOME
GUSTS AROUND 22 MPH.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER OVER SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN DUE TO
NORTHEAST WINDS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM CDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR LMZ645-646.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ643-
     644.

&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...HENTZ
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WOOD




000
FXUS63 KMKX 180824
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
324 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXITING THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL PUSH INTO
THE PLAINS TONIGHT...AS A RIDGE BUILDS SLIGHTLY OVER THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY REGION TOWARDS LAKE MICHIGAN. THE UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MEANWHILE A MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE JUST NORTHEAST OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE
OFF INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA. 700 MB UPWARD MOTION INCREASES MAINLY
LATE TONIGHT. AN 850/800 MB WIND MAX REACHES THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BY EARLY EVENING. 700 MB RH SATURATES OVER THE NOSE OF THE
WIND MAX...BUT THIS OCCURS NORTHWEST OF THE DELLS. THEREFORE ONLY
SMALL CHANCES OF LIGHT SHOWERS OVER WEST AREAS LATE TONIGHT.

A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
THIS MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
PERHAPS SOME BRIEF LOW CLOUDS...NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN...BUT NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. BEHIND THE
FRONT...WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE EAST AT 15 MPH GUSTING UP TO 22
MPH. GUSTS SHOULD EASE IN THE AFTERNOON. THESE EAST WINDS WILL
BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN WHAT WE HAVE HAD IN THE LAST FEW
DAYS...WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN.

.SHORT TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH TAKING WEAK SURFACE LOW NORTHEAST
FROM CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND DISSIPATING SUNDAY. A MORE ORGANIZED
LOW SLIDES NORTHWARD FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TO
NORTHWEST INDIANA DURING THIS TIME...THEN SLIDES NORTH NORTHEAST
INTO NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. THERE IS SOME VARIATION IN THE EXACT
TRACK OF THE LOW IN THE MODELS.

850 MB LOW TAKES A SIMILAR TRACK TO THE SURFACE LOW.
GFS/CANADIAN/ECMWF SHOWING SEVERAL WEAK 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMA
MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA...WITH THE NAM AN OUTLIER WITH A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THERE IS A DECENT AMOUNT OF LOW TO MID
LEVEL Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE THAT MOVES NORTH NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS SLOWLY MOISTEN WEST TO EAST SUNDAY...WITH
SATURATION MAINLY LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. THERE IS SOME
VARIABILITY ON QPF AMOUNTS AS WELL. FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE HIGHER
END POPS FOR MAINLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. REMOVED THUNDER
AS LITTLE TO NO INSTABILITY WAS SEEN ON AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS.
ONSHORE WINDS WILL KEEP HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE 50S NEAR THE LAKE...TO
THE LOWER 60S INLAND.

STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION THEN MOVES INTO THE REGION LATER SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY...LINGERING INTO MONDAY NIGHT. BRISK WEST WINDS
WITHIN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING COLDER TEMPERATURES
INTO THE REGION...WHICH SHOULD LINGER FOR A GOOD PART OF NEXT
WEEK.

A CLOSED 500 MB LOW SHOULD SLOWLY SLIDE EAST SOUTHEAST INTO LAKE
SUPERIOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. SEVERAL 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMA
SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA DURING THIS TIME. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WITH A SMALL AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY DEVELOP BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON ON AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
MIXING TO CONTINUE THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET COLD ENOUGH LATER MONDAY NIGHT FOR
A MIX OF RAIN AND SHOW SHOWERS IN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

CLOSED 500 MB LOW SHOWN ON GFS/ECMWF TO CONTINUE TO SHIFT SLOWLY
EASTWARD ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TUESDAY INTO EAST CENTRAL ONTARIO
CANADA WEDNESDAY. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN ON TUESDAY
WITH A SMALL AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY...AND GUSTY WINDS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR DEEP MIXING.

THUS...CONTINUED LOWER END POPS FOR SHOWERS TUESDAY...AND TUESDAY
NIGHT EAST. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE DURING THIS
TIME. THINGS DRY OUT ENOUGH FOR A DRY WEDNESDAY. GFS/ECMWF
CONTINUE TO DIFFER WITH TRENDS LATER IN THE WEEK...SO WILL FOLLOW
CONSENSUS OF MODELS FOR POPS AND TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

AREAS OF MVFR HAZE WILL BE FOUND NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN EARLY THIS
MORNING. OTHERWISE...A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL LEAD TO GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS THIS MORNING. VISIBILITIES AND PERHAPS CIGS MAY
BRIEFLY DROP TO MVFR ALONG THE FRONT NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN THIS
MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS DRY AIR IS IN PLACE AHEAD
OF AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...

A TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA WILL ACCELERATE SOUTH OVER LAKE MICHIGAN EARLY
THIS MORNING...MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE
MI FROM 5 OR 6 AM NEAR SHEBOYGAN TO AROUND 8 AM AT KENOSHA.
NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 TO 30 KTS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. BRISK AND GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. WAVES WILL QUICKLY BUILD TO 3 TO
5 FEET DURING THE MORNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL EXIST OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH 70
DEGREES SOUTHWEST OF MADISON. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
SOUTH THIS MORNING. BEHIND THIS FRONT...THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL
DROP TO NEAR 25 PERCENT WITH EAST WINDS UP TO 15 MPH WITH SOME
GUSTS AROUND 22 MPH.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER OVER SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN DUE TO
NORTHEAST WINDS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM CDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR LMZ645-646.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ643-
     644.

&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...HENTZ
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WOOD





000
FXUS63 KMKX 180824
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
324 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXITING THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL PUSH INTO
THE PLAINS TONIGHT...AS A RIDGE BUILDS SLIGHTLY OVER THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY REGION TOWARDS LAKE MICHIGAN. THE UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MEANWHILE A MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE JUST NORTHEAST OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE
OFF INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA. 700 MB UPWARD MOTION INCREASES MAINLY
LATE TONIGHT. AN 850/800 MB WIND MAX REACHES THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BY EARLY EVENING. 700 MB RH SATURATES OVER THE NOSE OF THE
WIND MAX...BUT THIS OCCURS NORTHWEST OF THE DELLS. THEREFORE ONLY
SMALL CHANCES OF LIGHT SHOWERS OVER WEST AREAS LATE TONIGHT.

A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
THIS MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
PERHAPS SOME BRIEF LOW CLOUDS...NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN...BUT NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. BEHIND THE
FRONT...WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE EAST AT 15 MPH GUSTING UP TO 22
MPH. GUSTS SHOULD EASE IN THE AFTERNOON. THESE EAST WINDS WILL
BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN WHAT WE HAVE HAD IN THE LAST FEW
DAYS...WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN.

.SHORT TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH TAKING WEAK SURFACE LOW NORTHEAST
FROM CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND DISSIPATING SUNDAY. A MORE ORGANIZED
LOW SLIDES NORTHWARD FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TO
NORTHWEST INDIANA DURING THIS TIME...THEN SLIDES NORTH NORTHEAST
INTO NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. THERE IS SOME VARIATION IN THE EXACT
TRACK OF THE LOW IN THE MODELS.

850 MB LOW TAKES A SIMILAR TRACK TO THE SURFACE LOW.
GFS/CANADIAN/ECMWF SHOWING SEVERAL WEAK 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMA
MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA...WITH THE NAM AN OUTLIER WITH A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THERE IS A DECENT AMOUNT OF LOW TO MID
LEVEL Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE THAT MOVES NORTH NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS SLOWLY MOISTEN WEST TO EAST SUNDAY...WITH
SATURATION MAINLY LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. THERE IS SOME
VARIABILITY ON QPF AMOUNTS AS WELL. FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE HIGHER
END POPS FOR MAINLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. REMOVED THUNDER
AS LITTLE TO NO INSTABILITY WAS SEEN ON AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS.
ONSHORE WINDS WILL KEEP HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE 50S NEAR THE LAKE...TO
THE LOWER 60S INLAND.

STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION THEN MOVES INTO THE REGION LATER SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY...LINGERING INTO MONDAY NIGHT. BRISK WEST WINDS
WITHIN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING COLDER TEMPERATURES
INTO THE REGION...WHICH SHOULD LINGER FOR A GOOD PART OF NEXT
WEEK.

A CLOSED 500 MB LOW SHOULD SLOWLY SLIDE EAST SOUTHEAST INTO LAKE
SUPERIOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. SEVERAL 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMA
SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA DURING THIS TIME. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WITH A SMALL AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY DEVELOP BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON ON AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
MIXING TO CONTINUE THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET COLD ENOUGH LATER MONDAY NIGHT FOR
A MIX OF RAIN AND SHOW SHOWERS IN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

CLOSED 500 MB LOW SHOWN ON GFS/ECMWF TO CONTINUE TO SHIFT SLOWLY
EASTWARD ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TUESDAY INTO EAST CENTRAL ONTARIO
CANADA WEDNESDAY. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN ON TUESDAY
WITH A SMALL AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY...AND GUSTY WINDS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR DEEP MIXING.

THUS...CONTINUED LOWER END POPS FOR SHOWERS TUESDAY...AND TUESDAY
NIGHT EAST. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE DURING THIS
TIME. THINGS DRY OUT ENOUGH FOR A DRY WEDNESDAY. GFS/ECMWF
CONTINUE TO DIFFER WITH TRENDS LATER IN THE WEEK...SO WILL FOLLOW
CONSENSUS OF MODELS FOR POPS AND TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

AREAS OF MVFR HAZE WILL BE FOUND NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN EARLY THIS
MORNING. OTHERWISE...A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL LEAD TO GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS THIS MORNING. VISIBILITIES AND PERHAPS CIGS MAY
BRIEFLY DROP TO MVFR ALONG THE FRONT NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN THIS
MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS DRY AIR IS IN PLACE AHEAD
OF AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...

A TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA WILL ACCELERATE SOUTH OVER LAKE MICHIGAN EARLY
THIS MORNING...MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE
MI FROM 5 OR 6 AM NEAR SHEBOYGAN TO AROUND 8 AM AT KENOSHA.
NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 TO 30 KTS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. BRISK AND GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. WAVES WILL QUICKLY BUILD TO 3 TO
5 FEET DURING THE MORNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL EXIST OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH 70
DEGREES SOUTHWEST OF MADISON. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
SOUTH THIS MORNING. BEHIND THIS FRONT...THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL
DROP TO NEAR 25 PERCENT WITH EAST WINDS UP TO 15 MPH WITH SOME
GUSTS AROUND 22 MPH.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER OVER SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN DUE TO
NORTHEAST WINDS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM CDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR LMZ645-646.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ643-
     644.

&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...HENTZ
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WOOD




000
FXUS63 KMKX 180231
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
931 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...THE TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST
ACROSS SRN CANADA WILL PASS THROUGH SRN WI FROM 5 AM IN THE FAR
NRN CWA TO 8-9 AM OVER THE SW CWA. GUSTY NELY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE MI. DESPITE THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE...MILD TEMPS ARE STILL EXPECTED WELL AWAY FROM
LAKE MI. HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE 40S AT THE LAKE MI
LAKEFRONT TO LOWER 70S JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF MADISON.


&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...AREAS OF 5-6SM HAZE WILL BE FOUND NEAR LAKE
MI TNT. OTHERWISE...A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL LEAD TO GUSTY
NELY WINDS SAT AM. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS DRY AIR IS IN
PLACE AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...THE TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST
ACROSS SRN CANADA WILL ACCELERATE SOUTH OVER LAKE MI EARLY SAT
AM...MOVING ACROSS THE WRN NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE MI FROM 5 AM
NEAR SHEBOYGAN TO AROUND 7 AM AT KENOSHA. NELY WIND GUSTS AROUND
30 KTS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. BRISK AND GUSTY
NELY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. WAVES WILL
QUICKLY BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FEET DURING THE MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND CLEARING SKIES WILL PERSIST INTO THE
NIGHT BEFORE A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE STATE EARLY ON
SATURDAY MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
PERHAPS SOME LOW CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN...BUT NO
PRECIP IS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. BEHIND THE FRONT...
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE EAST AT 15 KTS GUSTING UP TO 20. GUSTS
SHOULD EASE IN THE AFTERNOON. THESE EAST WINDS WILL BRING COOLER
TEMPERATURES THAN WHAT WE HAVE HAD IN THE LAST FEW DAYS.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE QUIET UNTIL AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
SWINGS THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST STATES. LARGE SCALE JET STREAK OF
120 KTS WILL SUPPORT UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENT FLOW OVER THE REGION.
ALSO...A 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ALSO PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR
PRECIPITATION. 12Z NAM IS GOING DRY FOR OUR FORECAST AREA EXCEPT FOR
OUR WESTERN COUNTIES...FROM MADISON AND POINTS WEST. THE GFS IS
FOLLOWING SUIT FOR PRECIP CHANCES...WHILE THE ECMWF IS STAYING DRY
UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. A BAND OF FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING ALONG WITH SOME
POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION AT THE 500 MB LEVEL WILL RAMP UP RAIN
CHANCES SUNDAY AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS AS
MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY OF NEARLY 150 J/KG.
MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE APPRECIABLE MOISTENING OF THE
LOW LEVELS AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH.

LONG TERM...

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

LINGERING MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE RAIN CHANCES THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
UNTIL THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. 12Z NAM
SOUNDINGS INDICATE RAIN CEASING BY MONDAY EVENING...WHILE THE ECMWF
KEEPS PRECIPITATION CHANCES AROUND INTO TUESDAY. THE GFS SEEMS TO
END PRECIPITATION BY MONDAY EVENING AS WELL. I WENT WITH THE MODEL
BLENDS DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE ENDING TIME OF THE
PRECIPITATION...AND KEPT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH TUESDAY.

AS THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...WINDS WILL VEER
FROM THE NORTHWEST AND INTENSIFY AS SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS.
THIS WILL SUPPORT COLD AIR ADVECTION AND BRING IN 925MB TEMPERATURES
BACK TO NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS. THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL
PERSIST FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...AS LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO
MID 30S TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SOME PLACES COULD SEE SLIGHTLY BELOW
FREEZING SFC TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES.
THESE TEMPERATURE PROFILES COULD SUPPORT A RAIN/SNOW MIX TUESDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING THE MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...AS THE GFS IS SHOWING A CLIPPER SYSTEM
RAPIDLY MOVING THROUGH THE REGION...BRINGING PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE 17.12Z ECMWF MODEL RUN IS SHOWING A SIMILAR
CLIPPER SYSTEM...UNLIKE THE PREVIOUS 17.06Z ECMWF MODEL RUN. WITH
THE COLDER TEMPERATURES...PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL DEPEND ON THE
LOCATION OF PRECIPITATION IN OUR FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES ACROSS
OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES COULD BE NEAR FREEZING...INDICATING MORE SNOW.
BUT...TEMPERATURES IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES COULD BE ABOVE FREEZING.
SO...CHANCES OF RAIN/SNOW MIX WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL DEPEND ON
LOCATION OF PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURES.

THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY...AS BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS ARE NOT
PROGGING ANY PRECIPITATION. THIS PATTERN LOOKS TO PERSIST INTO
FRIDAY.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...PRIMARY CONCERN FOR AVIATION IS THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. AS THE FRONT PASSES...WINDS
WILL SWING FROM THE WEST TO THE NORTH BEFORE SETTLING ENE AROUND 15
KTS. THERE MAY BE SOME LOW CLOUDS ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT...BUT DO
NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO PUT IT IN.

MARINE...SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA WILL BE APPROACHED...AND PERHAPS
BRIEFLY MET...FOR A FEW HOURS SATURDAY MORNING BEHIND A COLD FRONT
THAT WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH WISCONSIN. PERSISTENT NE WINDS MAY LEAD
TO SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

FIRE WEATHER...

NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL EXIST TOWARD CENTRAL
WISCONSIN ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH
THROUGH THE STATE EARLY ON SATURDAY MORNING. BEHIND THIS FRONT...THE
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL DROP INTO THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE INLAND
WITH EAST WINDS AROUND 14 KTS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 4 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR LMZ645-
     646.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR LMZ643-
     644.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GEHRING
TONIGHT/SATURDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...BSH
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...JTS




000
FXUS63 KMKX 180231
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
931 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...THE TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST
ACROSS SRN CANADA WILL PASS THROUGH SRN WI FROM 5 AM IN THE FAR
NRN CWA TO 8-9 AM OVER THE SW CWA. GUSTY NELY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE MI. DESPITE THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE...MILD TEMPS ARE STILL EXPECTED WELL AWAY FROM
LAKE MI. HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE 40S AT THE LAKE MI
LAKEFRONT TO LOWER 70S JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF MADISON.


&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...AREAS OF 5-6SM HAZE WILL BE FOUND NEAR LAKE
MI TNT. OTHERWISE...A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL LEAD TO GUSTY
NELY WINDS SAT AM. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS DRY AIR IS IN
PLACE AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...THE TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST
ACROSS SRN CANADA WILL ACCELERATE SOUTH OVER LAKE MI EARLY SAT
AM...MOVING ACROSS THE WRN NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE MI FROM 5 AM
NEAR SHEBOYGAN TO AROUND 7 AM AT KENOSHA. NELY WIND GUSTS AROUND
30 KTS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. BRISK AND GUSTY
NELY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. WAVES WILL
QUICKLY BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FEET DURING THE MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND CLEARING SKIES WILL PERSIST INTO THE
NIGHT BEFORE A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE STATE EARLY ON
SATURDAY MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
PERHAPS SOME LOW CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN...BUT NO
PRECIP IS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. BEHIND THE FRONT...
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE EAST AT 15 KTS GUSTING UP TO 20. GUSTS
SHOULD EASE IN THE AFTERNOON. THESE EAST WINDS WILL BRING COOLER
TEMPERATURES THAN WHAT WE HAVE HAD IN THE LAST FEW DAYS.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE QUIET UNTIL AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
SWINGS THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST STATES. LARGE SCALE JET STREAK OF
120 KTS WILL SUPPORT UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENT FLOW OVER THE REGION.
ALSO...A 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ALSO PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR
PRECIPITATION. 12Z NAM IS GOING DRY FOR OUR FORECAST AREA EXCEPT FOR
OUR WESTERN COUNTIES...FROM MADISON AND POINTS WEST. THE GFS IS
FOLLOWING SUIT FOR PRECIP CHANCES...WHILE THE ECMWF IS STAYING DRY
UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. A BAND OF FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING ALONG WITH SOME
POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION AT THE 500 MB LEVEL WILL RAMP UP RAIN
CHANCES SUNDAY AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS AS
MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY OF NEARLY 150 J/KG.
MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE APPRECIABLE MOISTENING OF THE
LOW LEVELS AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH.

LONG TERM...

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

LINGERING MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE RAIN CHANCES THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
UNTIL THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. 12Z NAM
SOUNDINGS INDICATE RAIN CEASING BY MONDAY EVENING...WHILE THE ECMWF
KEEPS PRECIPITATION CHANCES AROUND INTO TUESDAY. THE GFS SEEMS TO
END PRECIPITATION BY MONDAY EVENING AS WELL. I WENT WITH THE MODEL
BLENDS DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE ENDING TIME OF THE
PRECIPITATION...AND KEPT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH TUESDAY.

AS THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...WINDS WILL VEER
FROM THE NORTHWEST AND INTENSIFY AS SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS.
THIS WILL SUPPORT COLD AIR ADVECTION AND BRING IN 925MB TEMPERATURES
BACK TO NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS. THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL
PERSIST FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...AS LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO
MID 30S TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SOME PLACES COULD SEE SLIGHTLY BELOW
FREEZING SFC TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES.
THESE TEMPERATURE PROFILES COULD SUPPORT A RAIN/SNOW MIX TUESDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING THE MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...AS THE GFS IS SHOWING A CLIPPER SYSTEM
RAPIDLY MOVING THROUGH THE REGION...BRINGING PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE 17.12Z ECMWF MODEL RUN IS SHOWING A SIMILAR
CLIPPER SYSTEM...UNLIKE THE PREVIOUS 17.06Z ECMWF MODEL RUN. WITH
THE COLDER TEMPERATURES...PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL DEPEND ON THE
LOCATION OF PRECIPITATION IN OUR FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES ACROSS
OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES COULD BE NEAR FREEZING...INDICATING MORE SNOW.
BUT...TEMPERATURES IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES COULD BE ABOVE FREEZING.
SO...CHANCES OF RAIN/SNOW MIX WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL DEPEND ON
LOCATION OF PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURES.

THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY...AS BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS ARE NOT
PROGGING ANY PRECIPITATION. THIS PATTERN LOOKS TO PERSIST INTO
FRIDAY.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...PRIMARY CONCERN FOR AVIATION IS THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. AS THE FRONT PASSES...WINDS
WILL SWING FROM THE WEST TO THE NORTH BEFORE SETTLING ENE AROUND 15
KTS. THERE MAY BE SOME LOW CLOUDS ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT...BUT DO
NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO PUT IT IN.

MARINE...SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA WILL BE APPROACHED...AND PERHAPS
BRIEFLY MET...FOR A FEW HOURS SATURDAY MORNING BEHIND A COLD FRONT
THAT WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH WISCONSIN. PERSISTENT NE WINDS MAY LEAD
TO SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

FIRE WEATHER...

NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL EXIST TOWARD CENTRAL
WISCONSIN ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH
THROUGH THE STATE EARLY ON SATURDAY MORNING. BEHIND THIS FRONT...THE
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL DROP INTO THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE INLAND
WITH EAST WINDS AROUND 14 KTS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 4 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR LMZ645-
     646.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR LMZ643-
     644.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GEHRING
TONIGHT/SATURDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...BSH
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...JTS





000
FXUS63 KMKX 180231
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
931 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...THE TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST
ACROSS SRN CANADA WILL PASS THROUGH SRN WI FROM 5 AM IN THE FAR
NRN CWA TO 8-9 AM OVER THE SW CWA. GUSTY NELY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE MI. DESPITE THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE...MILD TEMPS ARE STILL EXPECTED WELL AWAY FROM
LAKE MI. HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE 40S AT THE LAKE MI
LAKEFRONT TO LOWER 70S JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF MADISON.


&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...AREAS OF 5-6SM HAZE WILL BE FOUND NEAR LAKE
MI TNT. OTHERWISE...A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL LEAD TO GUSTY
NELY WINDS SAT AM. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS DRY AIR IS IN
PLACE AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...THE TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST
ACROSS SRN CANADA WILL ACCELERATE SOUTH OVER LAKE MI EARLY SAT
AM...MOVING ACROSS THE WRN NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE MI FROM 5 AM
NEAR SHEBOYGAN TO AROUND 7 AM AT KENOSHA. NELY WIND GUSTS AROUND
30 KTS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. BRISK AND GUSTY
NELY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. WAVES WILL
QUICKLY BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FEET DURING THE MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND CLEARING SKIES WILL PERSIST INTO THE
NIGHT BEFORE A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE STATE EARLY ON
SATURDAY MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
PERHAPS SOME LOW CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN...BUT NO
PRECIP IS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. BEHIND THE FRONT...
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE EAST AT 15 KTS GUSTING UP TO 20. GUSTS
SHOULD EASE IN THE AFTERNOON. THESE EAST WINDS WILL BRING COOLER
TEMPERATURES THAN WHAT WE HAVE HAD IN THE LAST FEW DAYS.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE QUIET UNTIL AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
SWINGS THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST STATES. LARGE SCALE JET STREAK OF
120 KTS WILL SUPPORT UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENT FLOW OVER THE REGION.
ALSO...A 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ALSO PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR
PRECIPITATION. 12Z NAM IS GOING DRY FOR OUR FORECAST AREA EXCEPT FOR
OUR WESTERN COUNTIES...FROM MADISON AND POINTS WEST. THE GFS IS
FOLLOWING SUIT FOR PRECIP CHANCES...WHILE THE ECMWF IS STAYING DRY
UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. A BAND OF FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING ALONG WITH SOME
POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION AT THE 500 MB LEVEL WILL RAMP UP RAIN
CHANCES SUNDAY AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS AS
MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY OF NEARLY 150 J/KG.
MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE APPRECIABLE MOISTENING OF THE
LOW LEVELS AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH.

LONG TERM...

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

LINGERING MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE RAIN CHANCES THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
UNTIL THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. 12Z NAM
SOUNDINGS INDICATE RAIN CEASING BY MONDAY EVENING...WHILE THE ECMWF
KEEPS PRECIPITATION CHANCES AROUND INTO TUESDAY. THE GFS SEEMS TO
END PRECIPITATION BY MONDAY EVENING AS WELL. I WENT WITH THE MODEL
BLENDS DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE ENDING TIME OF THE
PRECIPITATION...AND KEPT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH TUESDAY.

AS THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...WINDS WILL VEER
FROM THE NORTHWEST AND INTENSIFY AS SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS.
THIS WILL SUPPORT COLD AIR ADVECTION AND BRING IN 925MB TEMPERATURES
BACK TO NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS. THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL
PERSIST FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...AS LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO
MID 30S TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SOME PLACES COULD SEE SLIGHTLY BELOW
FREEZING SFC TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES.
THESE TEMPERATURE PROFILES COULD SUPPORT A RAIN/SNOW MIX TUESDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING THE MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...AS THE GFS IS SHOWING A CLIPPER SYSTEM
RAPIDLY MOVING THROUGH THE REGION...BRINGING PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE 17.12Z ECMWF MODEL RUN IS SHOWING A SIMILAR
CLIPPER SYSTEM...UNLIKE THE PREVIOUS 17.06Z ECMWF MODEL RUN. WITH
THE COLDER TEMPERATURES...PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL DEPEND ON THE
LOCATION OF PRECIPITATION IN OUR FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES ACROSS
OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES COULD BE NEAR FREEZING...INDICATING MORE SNOW.
BUT...TEMPERATURES IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES COULD BE ABOVE FREEZING.
SO...CHANCES OF RAIN/SNOW MIX WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL DEPEND ON
LOCATION OF PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURES.

THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY...AS BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS ARE NOT
PROGGING ANY PRECIPITATION. THIS PATTERN LOOKS TO PERSIST INTO
FRIDAY.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...PRIMARY CONCERN FOR AVIATION IS THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. AS THE FRONT PASSES...WINDS
WILL SWING FROM THE WEST TO THE NORTH BEFORE SETTLING ENE AROUND 15
KTS. THERE MAY BE SOME LOW CLOUDS ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT...BUT DO
NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO PUT IT IN.

MARINE...SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA WILL BE APPROACHED...AND PERHAPS
BRIEFLY MET...FOR A FEW HOURS SATURDAY MORNING BEHIND A COLD FRONT
THAT WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH WISCONSIN. PERSISTENT NE WINDS MAY LEAD
TO SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

FIRE WEATHER...

NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL EXIST TOWARD CENTRAL
WISCONSIN ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH
THROUGH THE STATE EARLY ON SATURDAY MORNING. BEHIND THIS FRONT...THE
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL DROP INTO THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE INLAND
WITH EAST WINDS AROUND 14 KTS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 4 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR LMZ645-
     646.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR LMZ643-
     644.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GEHRING
TONIGHT/SATURDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...BSH
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...JTS





000
FXUS63 KMKX 180231
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
931 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...THE TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST
ACROSS SRN CANADA WILL PASS THROUGH SRN WI FROM 5 AM IN THE FAR
NRN CWA TO 8-9 AM OVER THE SW CWA. GUSTY NELY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE MI. DESPITE THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE...MILD TEMPS ARE STILL EXPECTED WELL AWAY FROM
LAKE MI. HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE 40S AT THE LAKE MI
LAKEFRONT TO LOWER 70S JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF MADISON.


&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...AREAS OF 5-6SM HAZE WILL BE FOUND NEAR LAKE
MI TNT. OTHERWISE...A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL LEAD TO GUSTY
NELY WINDS SAT AM. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS DRY AIR IS IN
PLACE AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...THE TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST
ACROSS SRN CANADA WILL ACCELERATE SOUTH OVER LAKE MI EARLY SAT
AM...MOVING ACROSS THE WRN NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE MI FROM 5 AM
NEAR SHEBOYGAN TO AROUND 7 AM AT KENOSHA. NELY WIND GUSTS AROUND
30 KTS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. BRISK AND GUSTY
NELY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. WAVES WILL
QUICKLY BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FEET DURING THE MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND CLEARING SKIES WILL PERSIST INTO THE
NIGHT BEFORE A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE STATE EARLY ON
SATURDAY MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
PERHAPS SOME LOW CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN...BUT NO
PRECIP IS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. BEHIND THE FRONT...
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE EAST AT 15 KTS GUSTING UP TO 20. GUSTS
SHOULD EASE IN THE AFTERNOON. THESE EAST WINDS WILL BRING COOLER
TEMPERATURES THAN WHAT WE HAVE HAD IN THE LAST FEW DAYS.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE QUIET UNTIL AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
SWINGS THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST STATES. LARGE SCALE JET STREAK OF
120 KTS WILL SUPPORT UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENT FLOW OVER THE REGION.
ALSO...A 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ALSO PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR
PRECIPITATION. 12Z NAM IS GOING DRY FOR OUR FORECAST AREA EXCEPT FOR
OUR WESTERN COUNTIES...FROM MADISON AND POINTS WEST. THE GFS IS
FOLLOWING SUIT FOR PRECIP CHANCES...WHILE THE ECMWF IS STAYING DRY
UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. A BAND OF FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING ALONG WITH SOME
POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION AT THE 500 MB LEVEL WILL RAMP UP RAIN
CHANCES SUNDAY AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS AS
MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY OF NEARLY 150 J/KG.
MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE APPRECIABLE MOISTENING OF THE
LOW LEVELS AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH.

LONG TERM...

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

LINGERING MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE RAIN CHANCES THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
UNTIL THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. 12Z NAM
SOUNDINGS INDICATE RAIN CEASING BY MONDAY EVENING...WHILE THE ECMWF
KEEPS PRECIPITATION CHANCES AROUND INTO TUESDAY. THE GFS SEEMS TO
END PRECIPITATION BY MONDAY EVENING AS WELL. I WENT WITH THE MODEL
BLENDS DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE ENDING TIME OF THE
PRECIPITATION...AND KEPT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH TUESDAY.

AS THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...WINDS WILL VEER
FROM THE NORTHWEST AND INTENSIFY AS SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS.
THIS WILL SUPPORT COLD AIR ADVECTION AND BRING IN 925MB TEMPERATURES
BACK TO NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS. THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL
PERSIST FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...AS LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO
MID 30S TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SOME PLACES COULD SEE SLIGHTLY BELOW
FREEZING SFC TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES.
THESE TEMPERATURE PROFILES COULD SUPPORT A RAIN/SNOW MIX TUESDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING THE MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...AS THE GFS IS SHOWING A CLIPPER SYSTEM
RAPIDLY MOVING THROUGH THE REGION...BRINGING PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE 17.12Z ECMWF MODEL RUN IS SHOWING A SIMILAR
CLIPPER SYSTEM...UNLIKE THE PREVIOUS 17.06Z ECMWF MODEL RUN. WITH
THE COLDER TEMPERATURES...PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL DEPEND ON THE
LOCATION OF PRECIPITATION IN OUR FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES ACROSS
OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES COULD BE NEAR FREEZING...INDICATING MORE SNOW.
BUT...TEMPERATURES IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES COULD BE ABOVE FREEZING.
SO...CHANCES OF RAIN/SNOW MIX WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL DEPEND ON
LOCATION OF PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURES.

THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY...AS BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS ARE NOT
PROGGING ANY PRECIPITATION. THIS PATTERN LOOKS TO PERSIST INTO
FRIDAY.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...PRIMARY CONCERN FOR AVIATION IS THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. AS THE FRONT PASSES...WINDS
WILL SWING FROM THE WEST TO THE NORTH BEFORE SETTLING ENE AROUND 15
KTS. THERE MAY BE SOME LOW CLOUDS ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT...BUT DO
NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO PUT IT IN.

MARINE...SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA WILL BE APPROACHED...AND PERHAPS
BRIEFLY MET...FOR A FEW HOURS SATURDAY MORNING BEHIND A COLD FRONT
THAT WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH WISCONSIN. PERSISTENT NE WINDS MAY LEAD
TO SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

FIRE WEATHER...

NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL EXIST TOWARD CENTRAL
WISCONSIN ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH
THROUGH THE STATE EARLY ON SATURDAY MORNING. BEHIND THIS FRONT...THE
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL DROP INTO THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE INLAND
WITH EAST WINDS AROUND 14 KTS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 4 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR LMZ645-
     646.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR LMZ643-
     644.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GEHRING
TONIGHT/SATURDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...BSH
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...JTS




000
FXUS63 KMKX 172049
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
349 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND CLEARING SKIES WILL PERSIST INTO THE
NIGHT BEFORE A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE STATE EARLY ON
SATURDAY MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
PERHAPS SOME LOW CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN...BUT NO
PRECIP IS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. BEHIND THE FRONT...
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE EAST AT 15 KTS GUSTING UP TO 20. GUSTS
SHOULD EASE IN THE AFTERNOON. THESE EAST WINDS WILL BRING COOLER
TEMPERATURES THAN WHAT WE HAVE HAD IN THE LAST FEW DAYS.

.SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE QUIET UNTIL AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
SWINGS THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST STATES. LARGE SCALE JET STREAK OF
120 KTS WILL SUPPORT UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENT FLOW OVER THE REGION.
ALSO...A 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ALSO PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR
PRECIPITATION. 12Z NAM IS GOING DRY FOR OUR FORECAST AREA EXCEPT FOR
OUR WESTERN COUNTIES...FROM MADISON AND POINTS WEST. THE GFS IS
FOLLOWING SUIT FOR PRECIP CHANCES...WHILE THE ECMWF IS STAYING DRY
UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. A BAND OF FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING ALONG WITH SOME
POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION AT THE 500 MB LEVEL WILL RAMP UP RAIN
CHANCES SUNDAY AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS AS
MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY OF NEARLY 150 J/KG.
MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE APPRECIABLE MOISTENING OF THE
LOW LEVELS AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH.

.LONG TERM...

.MONDAY AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

LINGERING MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE RAIN CHANCES THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
UNTIL THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. 12Z NAM
SOUNDINGS INDICATE RAIN CEASING BY MONDAY EVENING...WHILE THE ECMWF
KEEPS PRECIPITATION CHANCES AROUND INTO TUESDAY. THE GFS SEEMS TO
END PRECIPITATION BY MONDAY EVENING AS WELL. I WENT WITH THE MODEL
BLENDS DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE ENDING TIME OF THE
PRECIPITATION...AND KEPT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH TUESDAY.

AS THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...WINDS WILL VEER
FROM THE NORTHWEST AND INTENSIFY AS SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS.
THIS WILL SUPPORT COLD AIR ADVECTION AND BRING IN 925MB TEMPERATURES
BACK TO NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS. THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL
PERSIST FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...AS LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO
MID 30S TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SOME PLACES COULD SEE SLIGHTLY BELOW
FREEZING SFC TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES.
THESE TEMPERATURE PROFILES COULD SUPPORT A RAIN/SNOW MIX TUESDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING THE MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...AS THE GFS IS SHOWING A CLIPPER SYSTEM
RAPIDLY MOVING THROUGH THE REGION...BRINGING PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE 17.12Z ECMWF MODEL RUN IS SHOWING A SIMILAR
CLIPPER SYSTEM...UNLIKE THE PREVIOUS 17.06Z ECMWF MODEL RUN. WITH
THE COLDER TEMPERATURES...PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL DEPEND ON THE
LOCATION OF PRECIPITATION IN OUR FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES ACROSS
OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES COULD BE NEAR FREEZING...INDICATING MORE SNOW.
BUT...TEMPERATURES IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES COULD BE ABOVE FREEZING.
SO...CHANCES OF RAIN/SNOW MIX WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL DEPEND ON
LOCATION OF PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURES.

THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY...AS BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS ARE NOT
PROGGING ANY PRECIPITATION. THIS PATTERN LOOKS TO PERSIST INTO
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...PRIMARY CONCERN FOR AVIATION IS THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. AS THE FRONT PASSES...WINDS
WILL SWING FROM THE WEST TO THE NORTH BEFORE SETTLING ENE AROUND 15
KTS. THERE MAY BE SOME LOW CLOUDS ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT...BUT DO
NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO PUT IT IN.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA WILL BE APPROACHED...AND PERHAPS
BRIEFLY MET...FOR A FEW HOURS SATURDAY MORNING BEHIND A COLD FRONT
THAT WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH WISCONSIN. PERSISTENT NE WINDS MAY LEAD
TO SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL EXIST TOWARD CENTRAL
WISCONSIN ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH
THROUGH THE STATE EARLY ON SATURDAY MORNING. BEHIND THIS FRONT...THE
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL DROP INTO THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE INLAND
WITH EAST WINDS AROUND 14 KTS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.

&&

$$

TONIGHT/SATURDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...BSH
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...JTS




000
FXUS63 KMKX 172049
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
349 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND CLEARING SKIES WILL PERSIST INTO THE
NIGHT BEFORE A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE STATE EARLY ON
SATURDAY MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
PERHAPS SOME LOW CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN...BUT NO
PRECIP IS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. BEHIND THE FRONT...
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE EAST AT 15 KTS GUSTING UP TO 20. GUSTS
SHOULD EASE IN THE AFTERNOON. THESE EAST WINDS WILL BRING COOLER
TEMPERATURES THAN WHAT WE HAVE HAD IN THE LAST FEW DAYS.

.SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE QUIET UNTIL AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
SWINGS THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST STATES. LARGE SCALE JET STREAK OF
120 KTS WILL SUPPORT UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENT FLOW OVER THE REGION.
ALSO...A 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ALSO PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR
PRECIPITATION. 12Z NAM IS GOING DRY FOR OUR FORECAST AREA EXCEPT FOR
OUR WESTERN COUNTIES...FROM MADISON AND POINTS WEST. THE GFS IS
FOLLOWING SUIT FOR PRECIP CHANCES...WHILE THE ECMWF IS STAYING DRY
UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. A BAND OF FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING ALONG WITH SOME
POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION AT THE 500 MB LEVEL WILL RAMP UP RAIN
CHANCES SUNDAY AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS AS
MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY OF NEARLY 150 J/KG.
MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE APPRECIABLE MOISTENING OF THE
LOW LEVELS AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH.

.LONG TERM...

.MONDAY AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

LINGERING MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE RAIN CHANCES THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
UNTIL THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. 12Z NAM
SOUNDINGS INDICATE RAIN CEASING BY MONDAY EVENING...WHILE THE ECMWF
KEEPS PRECIPITATION CHANCES AROUND INTO TUESDAY. THE GFS SEEMS TO
END PRECIPITATION BY MONDAY EVENING AS WELL. I WENT WITH THE MODEL
BLENDS DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE ENDING TIME OF THE
PRECIPITATION...AND KEPT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH TUESDAY.

AS THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...WINDS WILL VEER
FROM THE NORTHWEST AND INTENSIFY AS SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS.
THIS WILL SUPPORT COLD AIR ADVECTION AND BRING IN 925MB TEMPERATURES
BACK TO NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS. THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL
PERSIST FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...AS LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO
MID 30S TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SOME PLACES COULD SEE SLIGHTLY BELOW
FREEZING SFC TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES.
THESE TEMPERATURE PROFILES COULD SUPPORT A RAIN/SNOW MIX TUESDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING THE MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...AS THE GFS IS SHOWING A CLIPPER SYSTEM
RAPIDLY MOVING THROUGH THE REGION...BRINGING PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE 17.12Z ECMWF MODEL RUN IS SHOWING A SIMILAR
CLIPPER SYSTEM...UNLIKE THE PREVIOUS 17.06Z ECMWF MODEL RUN. WITH
THE COLDER TEMPERATURES...PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL DEPEND ON THE
LOCATION OF PRECIPITATION IN OUR FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES ACROSS
OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES COULD BE NEAR FREEZING...INDICATING MORE SNOW.
BUT...TEMPERATURES IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES COULD BE ABOVE FREEZING.
SO...CHANCES OF RAIN/SNOW MIX WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL DEPEND ON
LOCATION OF PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURES.

THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY...AS BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS ARE NOT
PROGGING ANY PRECIPITATION. THIS PATTERN LOOKS TO PERSIST INTO
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...PRIMARY CONCERN FOR AVIATION IS THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. AS THE FRONT PASSES...WINDS
WILL SWING FROM THE WEST TO THE NORTH BEFORE SETTLING ENE AROUND 15
KTS. THERE MAY BE SOME LOW CLOUDS ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT...BUT DO
NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO PUT IT IN.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA WILL BE APPROACHED...AND PERHAPS
BRIEFLY MET...FOR A FEW HOURS SATURDAY MORNING BEHIND A COLD FRONT
THAT WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH WISCONSIN. PERSISTENT NE WINDS MAY LEAD
TO SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL EXIST TOWARD CENTRAL
WISCONSIN ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH
THROUGH THE STATE EARLY ON SATURDAY MORNING. BEHIND THIS FRONT...THE
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL DROP INTO THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE INLAND
WITH EAST WINDS AROUND 14 KTS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.

&&

$$

TONIGHT/SATURDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...BSH
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...JTS





000
FXUS63 KMKX 172049
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
349 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND CLEARING SKIES WILL PERSIST INTO THE
NIGHT BEFORE A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE STATE EARLY ON
SATURDAY MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
PERHAPS SOME LOW CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN...BUT NO
PRECIP IS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. BEHIND THE FRONT...
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE EAST AT 15 KTS GUSTING UP TO 20. GUSTS
SHOULD EASE IN THE AFTERNOON. THESE EAST WINDS WILL BRING COOLER
TEMPERATURES THAN WHAT WE HAVE HAD IN THE LAST FEW DAYS.

.SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE QUIET UNTIL AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
SWINGS THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST STATES. LARGE SCALE JET STREAK OF
120 KTS WILL SUPPORT UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENT FLOW OVER THE REGION.
ALSO...A 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ALSO PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR
PRECIPITATION. 12Z NAM IS GOING DRY FOR OUR FORECAST AREA EXCEPT FOR
OUR WESTERN COUNTIES...FROM MADISON AND POINTS WEST. THE GFS IS
FOLLOWING SUIT FOR PRECIP CHANCES...WHILE THE ECMWF IS STAYING DRY
UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. A BAND OF FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING ALONG WITH SOME
POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION AT THE 500 MB LEVEL WILL RAMP UP RAIN
CHANCES SUNDAY AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS AS
MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY OF NEARLY 150 J/KG.
MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE APPRECIABLE MOISTENING OF THE
LOW LEVELS AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH.

.LONG TERM...

.MONDAY AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

LINGERING MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE RAIN CHANCES THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
UNTIL THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. 12Z NAM
SOUNDINGS INDICATE RAIN CEASING BY MONDAY EVENING...WHILE THE ECMWF
KEEPS PRECIPITATION CHANCES AROUND INTO TUESDAY. THE GFS SEEMS TO
END PRECIPITATION BY MONDAY EVENING AS WELL. I WENT WITH THE MODEL
BLENDS DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE ENDING TIME OF THE
PRECIPITATION...AND KEPT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH TUESDAY.

AS THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...WINDS WILL VEER
FROM THE NORTHWEST AND INTENSIFY AS SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS.
THIS WILL SUPPORT COLD AIR ADVECTION AND BRING IN 925MB TEMPERATURES
BACK TO NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS. THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL
PERSIST FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...AS LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO
MID 30S TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SOME PLACES COULD SEE SLIGHTLY BELOW
FREEZING SFC TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES.
THESE TEMPERATURE PROFILES COULD SUPPORT A RAIN/SNOW MIX TUESDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING THE MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...AS THE GFS IS SHOWING A CLIPPER SYSTEM
RAPIDLY MOVING THROUGH THE REGION...BRINGING PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE 17.12Z ECMWF MODEL RUN IS SHOWING A SIMILAR
CLIPPER SYSTEM...UNLIKE THE PREVIOUS 17.06Z ECMWF MODEL RUN. WITH
THE COLDER TEMPERATURES...PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL DEPEND ON THE
LOCATION OF PRECIPITATION IN OUR FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES ACROSS
OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES COULD BE NEAR FREEZING...INDICATING MORE SNOW.
BUT...TEMPERATURES IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES COULD BE ABOVE FREEZING.
SO...CHANCES OF RAIN/SNOW MIX WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL DEPEND ON
LOCATION OF PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURES.

THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY...AS BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS ARE NOT
PROGGING ANY PRECIPITATION. THIS PATTERN LOOKS TO PERSIST INTO
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...PRIMARY CONCERN FOR AVIATION IS THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. AS THE FRONT PASSES...WINDS
WILL SWING FROM THE WEST TO THE NORTH BEFORE SETTLING ENE AROUND 15
KTS. THERE MAY BE SOME LOW CLOUDS ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT...BUT DO
NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO PUT IT IN.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA WILL BE APPROACHED...AND PERHAPS
BRIEFLY MET...FOR A FEW HOURS SATURDAY MORNING BEHIND A COLD FRONT
THAT WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH WISCONSIN. PERSISTENT NE WINDS MAY LEAD
TO SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL EXIST TOWARD CENTRAL
WISCONSIN ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH
THROUGH THE STATE EARLY ON SATURDAY MORNING. BEHIND THIS FRONT...THE
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL DROP INTO THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE INLAND
WITH EAST WINDS AROUND 14 KTS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.

&&

$$

TONIGHT/SATURDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...BSH
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...JTS





000
FXUS63 KMKX 171717 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1217 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...

HIGH PRESSURE AND CLEAR SKIES OVER THE STATE WILL MAKE FOR A
BEAUTIFUL AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHS MAKING IT INTO THE UPPER 70S
INLAND...AND PERHAPS TOUCHING 80 IN A FEW SPOTS. HOWEVER LAKE BREEZE
SHOULD MAKE IT WELL INLAND THIS AFTERNOON...LIMITING HIGHS EAST OF
APPROX A FOND DU LAC TO DELEVAN LINE TO THE LOW TO MID 70S. ENDED UP
SPEEDING UP THE LAKE BREEZE...AND HAD TO INCREASE TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA GIVEN AM TEMP TRENDS.

AFTER A NIGHT OF CLEAR SKIES...EXPECT TO SEE A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
TO SLIP DOWN THE LAKE ON SATURDAY MORNING. ALONG WITH A DROP IN
TEMPERATURES...CLOUD COVERAGE MAY INCREASE. AT THIS POINT ITS TOUGH
TO SAY HOW WIDESPREAD THE CLOUDS WILL BE. MOST GUIDANCE KEEPS THE RH
FAIRLY LOW TOMORROW MORNING...HOWEVER BACK DOOR COLD FRONTS THIS
TIME OF YEAR CAN BRING LOW CLOUDS WITH THEM.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

PRIMARY POINTS OF CONCERN ARE THE LAKE BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON AND A
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THAT WILL SLIP DOWN THE LAKE ON SATURDAY
MORNING. THIS AFTERNOON...MUCH OF THE HIGH RES GUIDANCE HAS THE LAKE
BREEZE MAKING IT WELL INLAND...TO APPROX A FOND DU LAC TO DELEVAN
LINE...BEFORE WASHING OUT AROUND 00Z. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAR THE LAKE BREEZE GETS...AND THEREFORE THE
EXACT TIMING OF WHEN THE LAKE BREEZE REACHES THE TAF SITES IS NOT
CERTAIN. SATURDAY MORNING...THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT SHOULD SWING
THE WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTH AT THE TAF SITES AROUND 09Z. MOST
GUIDANCE KEEPS THE RH FAIRLY LOW TOMORROW MORNING...HOWEVER BACK
DOOR COLD FRONTS THIS TIME OF YEAR CAN BRING LOW CLOUDS WITH THEM SO
THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOW CIGS AT THE LAKESHORE SITES.
AGAIN...THE EXACT TIMING IS UNCERTAIN...AND AT THIS POINT ITS TOUGH
TO SAY IF WE GET CLOUDS. IF WE DO CLOUD UP...LOW CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

SHORT TERM...

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE

SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE QUIET UNTIL AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
SWINGS THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST STATES. LARGE SCALE JET STREAK OF
[] KTS WILL SUPPORT UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENT FLOW OVER THE REGION.
ALSO...A 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL WITH ISENTROPIC OMEGA OF []
UBAR/S WILL ALSO SUPPORT PRECIPITATION. 12Z NAM IS GOING DRY FOR OUR
FORECAST AREA EXCEPT FOR OUR WESTERN COUNTIES...FROM MADISON AND
POINTS WEST. WHAT ABOUT THE ECMWF AND GFS?

A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. A BAND OF FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING ALONG WITH A
SHEARED RIBBON OF POSIVITVE VORITICITY ADVECTION AT THE 500 MB LEVEL
WILL RAMP UP RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS AS MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE ELEVEATED INSTABILITY OF
NEARLY 100 J/KG. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE APPRECIABLE
MOISTENING OF THE LOW LEVELS AS THIS SSYTEM MOVES THROUGH.

LONG TERM...

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE

LINGERING MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE RAIN CHANCES THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
UNTIL THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. 12Z NAM
SOUNDINGS INDICATE RAIN CEASING BY MONDAY EVENING...WHILE THE GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW WHAT?

AS THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...WINDS WILL VEER
FROM THE NORTHWEST AND INTENSIFY. THIS WILL SUPPORT COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND BRING IN 925MB TEMPERATURES OF []. THESE COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...AS LOWS WILL BE
IN THE [] TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

CHANCES OF RAIN PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY?

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE

SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING THE MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...AS THE GFS IS SHOWING A CLIPPER SYSTEM
RAPIDLY MOVING THROUGH THE REGION...BRINGING PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WEDNESDAY MORNING. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE ECMWF IS KEEPING
CONDITIONS DRY FOR WEDNESDAY. CHANCES OF RAIN/SNOW MIX WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY...WHILE THE GFS BRINGS ANOTHER SYSTEM WITH
A BAND OF PRECIPITATION FRIDAY MORNING. THE ECMWF IS GOING DRY
DURING THIS SAME TIME PERIOD.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BSH
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...99
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...99




000
FXUS63 KMKX 170825
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
325 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

A VERY WEAK FLOW/PRESSURE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE IS A VERY WEAK TROF OF LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING SOUTHEAST ACROSS WISCONSIN TODAY AND IT REACHES THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...MOISTURE AND FORCING ARE
VERY LOW AND WE SHOULD ONLY SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER.

925MB TEMPS CONTINUE TO WARM AND GIVEN TRENDS OVER THE PAST FEW
DAYS...WE SHOULD SEE MOST AREAS WELL INTO THE 70S THIS AFTERNOON.
A LAKE BREEZE WILL KICK IN FOR AREAS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN...BUT
GIVEN THE WEAK FLOW...THAT NORTHEAST TO EAST WIND WON/T BE VERY
STRONG AND WILL LIMIT IT/S USUAL COOLING INFLUENCE. QUIET THROUGH
TONIGHT AS WELL.

.SHORT TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS MEDIUM.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH DRY
EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS THE AREA. SOME CLOUDS WILL
LINGER. 925 MB TEMPERATURES SUGGEST HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
60S WELL INLAND...WITH 50S NEAR THE LAKE.

THE DRY EASTERLY FLOW WILL LINGER SATURDAY NIGHT...WHICH MAY DELAY
THE ADVANCE OF MORE MOIST AIR INTO THE AREA. COULD SEE SATURDAY
NIGHT BEING DRY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...AS THIS DRY FLOW TENDS TO
BEAT BACK ADVANCING MOISTURE. FOR NOW...WENT WITH LOW POPS IN THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

CONSENSUS OF MODELS SHOWING WEAK SURFACE LOW GRADUALLY
STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST ILLINOIS
TO THE EASTERN UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. THERE IS SOME VARIATION AMONG THE MODELS WITH THE EXACT
TRACK OF THE LOW.

850 MB LOW TAKES A SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHWESTERLY TRACK THAN THE
SURFACE LOW...AGAIN WITH VARIATION BETWEEN THE MODELS. THERE ARE
VARIOUS 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMA MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THIS TIME...WITH SOME INFLUENCE FROM A RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF A 300 MB JET STREAK SUNDAY.

AIR COLUMN ON AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWS A SLOW MOISTENING
SUNDAY...SATURATING LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. CONTINUED
THE HIGHER END POPS FOR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. ISOLATED THUNDER
WITH WEAK INSTABILITY IS FORECAST SUNDAY IN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BRING COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

GFS/ECMWF CONTINUING TO SHOW A CUTOFF UPPER LOW SLOWLY SHIFTING
EAST FROM NORTHERN MINNESOTA TO LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. IT SHIFTS SLOWLY INTO EAST CENTRAL ONTARIO CANADA BY 12Z
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE OPENING AND SLIDING TO THE SOUTHEAST LATER
IN THE WEEK.

SEVERAL 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMA SHIFT THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS KEEP STEEP
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH SOME MOISTURE LINGERING DURING THIS
TIME. THUS...WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP POPS GOING FOR MOST OF THIS
PERIOD.

COLD AIR ADVECTION LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL BRING
COLDER TEMPERATURES INTO THE REGION FOR MOST OF THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURE PROFILES MAY GET COLD ENOUGH FOR A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS FOR LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY IN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

GFS IS FURTHER NORTH THAN ECMWF WITH LOW AND WARM FRONT FOR
THURSDAY AND BEYOND. THE GFS IS IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...VERSUS THE ECMWF IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. FOR
NOW...WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE OVERALL FLOW IS WEAK
WITH WINDS BELOW 10KTS. EXPECT A NORTHEAST TO EAST LAKE BREEZE TO
KICK IN BY EARLY AFTERNOON AT KMKE AND A FEW HOURS LATER AT KUES
AND KENW.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DAVIS
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WOOD





000
FXUS63 KMKX 170327
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1027 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.UPDATE...


&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH OF THE
STATE. PATCHY IFR IN RIVER VALLEYS...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST WHERE
MARINE AIR IS A BIT MORE MOIST. EXPECT A LAKE BREEZE OFF LAKE
MICHIGAN AGAIN FRIDAY LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON. WITH THE HIGH TO
THE SOUTH...BLENDED GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LAKE BREEZE WILL REMAIN
OFFSHORE UNTIL AROUND 16Z...AT WHICH POINT IT WILL IMPACT
LAKESHORE SITES...AND MOVING TO UES BY 21Z. SCATTERED AFTERNOON
CUMULUS AROUND 6 THSD FT...EXCEPT NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015/

SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

HIGH PRESSURE HAS BUILT IN SOUTH OF THE STATE WITH MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT. ADDITIONALLY...THE DEPTH OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN DRY
THROUGH AT LEAST TOMORROW AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THE HIGH
PRESSURE/ZONAL PATTERN ALOFT AND THE LACK OF MOISTURE IN THE
ATMOSPHERE SHOULD COMBINE FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES UNTIL TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...WHEN SOME DIURNAL CU ARE LIKELY. THE GFS AND NAM SUGGEST
SOME LATE AFTERNOON SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO...BUT AT THIS POINT HAVE LITTLE CONFIDENCE THIS WILL HAPPEN...SO
KEPT POPS LOW THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

THE PRIMARY CONCERNS WITH THIS FORECAST ARE THE TIMING OF THE LAKE
BREEZE AND TEMPERATURES. THE WEAK HIGH TO OUR SOUTH SHOULD KEEP THE
LAKE BREEZE OFFSHORE INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW TEMPERATURES ALONG THE LAKESHORE TO REACH NEAR 60.
INLAND...MUCH OF THE HIGH RES GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY THE BIAS
CORRECTED GUIDANCE...SUGGESTS TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE HIGH
70S. 925 TEMPS SUPPORT HIGH 70S...ESPECIALLY WEST...SO ADJUSTED
FORECAST HIGHS TO MATCH. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER BUILDS
IN...HIGH TEMPS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED EVEN HIGHER.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM

THE NAM AND GFS ARE PROGGING A BRIEF PERIOD OF QPF ALONG A
BAROCLINIC ZONE DRAPED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...THE
ECMWF MODEL IS GOING DRY. FORCING LOOKS VERY WEAK WITH THE GFS
SHOWING EXTREMELY WEAK Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND A LACK OF A LOW
LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE...ALONG WITH NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING DRY
LOW LEVEL CONDITIONS. DECIDED NOT TO PUT ANY POPS IN GRIDS FOR LATE
FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY DUE TO EVIDENCE AGAINST CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
UNTIL AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRANSLATES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
REGION.

LONG TERM...

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH

A STRENGTHENING 130 KT UPPER LEVEL JET STEAK OVER SOUTHERN CANADA
WILL PROVIDE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENT FLOW OVER THE REGION...ALONG WITH
A POTENT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH ISENTROPIC OMEGA WITH
VALUES OVER -30 UBAR/S...SUPPORTING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ARE IN
SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH THE NAME AS TO THE TIMING OF THE INITIAL
PRECIPITATION BAND...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND LAST THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. NAM BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THE DAY SUNDAY AS ELEVATED CAPE OF NEARLY 100 J/KG DOES EXIST.
MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS APPEARS LIKELY WITH THIS SYSTEM.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM

THE LARGE SCALE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE OUT BY MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY
MORNING. MODELS SHOW DRIER CONDITIONS EARLY TUESDAY. MODELS ARE
SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE STICKING AROUND
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE OTHER BIG STORY IS A COOL DOWN FOR THE
WEEK...AS LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER 30S TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH LOOKS TO BE SWING THROUGH THE
REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING...KEEPING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION IN THE
FORECAST AREA INTO THURSDAY.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH OF THE
STATE...WILL REMAIN IN VFR THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH RELATIVELY
LIGHT WINDS. THE ONLY CONCERN IS THE TIMING OF THE LAKE BREEZE. WITH
THE HIGH TO THE SOUTH...BLENDED GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LAKE BREEZE WILL
REMAIN OFFSHORE UNTIL AROUND 18Z...AT WHICH POINT IT WILL IMPACT
LAKESHORE SITES...AND MOVING TO UES BY 21Z. THAT SAID...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE LAKEBREEZE COME ONSHORE AN HOUR OR TWO LATER OR
EARLIER THAN FORECASTED IN TAFS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HENTZ
TONIGHT/FRIDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...BSH
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...JTS





000
FXUS63 KMKX 170327
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1027 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.UPDATE...


&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH OF THE
STATE. PATCHY IFR IN RIVER VALLEYS...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST WHERE
MARINE AIR IS A BIT MORE MOIST. EXPECT A LAKE BREEZE OFF LAKE
MICHIGAN AGAIN FRIDAY LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON. WITH THE HIGH TO
THE SOUTH...BLENDED GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LAKE BREEZE WILL REMAIN
OFFSHORE UNTIL AROUND 16Z...AT WHICH POINT IT WILL IMPACT
LAKESHORE SITES...AND MOVING TO UES BY 21Z. SCATTERED AFTERNOON
CUMULUS AROUND 6 THSD FT...EXCEPT NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015/

SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

HIGH PRESSURE HAS BUILT IN SOUTH OF THE STATE WITH MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT. ADDITIONALLY...THE DEPTH OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN DRY
THROUGH AT LEAST TOMORROW AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THE HIGH
PRESSURE/ZONAL PATTERN ALOFT AND THE LACK OF MOISTURE IN THE
ATMOSPHERE SHOULD COMBINE FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES UNTIL TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...WHEN SOME DIURNAL CU ARE LIKELY. THE GFS AND NAM SUGGEST
SOME LATE AFTERNOON SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO...BUT AT THIS POINT HAVE LITTLE CONFIDENCE THIS WILL HAPPEN...SO
KEPT POPS LOW THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

THE PRIMARY CONCERNS WITH THIS FORECAST ARE THE TIMING OF THE LAKE
BREEZE AND TEMPERATURES. THE WEAK HIGH TO OUR SOUTH SHOULD KEEP THE
LAKE BREEZE OFFSHORE INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW TEMPERATURES ALONG THE LAKESHORE TO REACH NEAR 60.
INLAND...MUCH OF THE HIGH RES GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY THE BIAS
CORRECTED GUIDANCE...SUGGESTS TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE HIGH
70S. 925 TEMPS SUPPORT HIGH 70S...ESPECIALLY WEST...SO ADJUSTED
FORECAST HIGHS TO MATCH. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER BUILDS
IN...HIGH TEMPS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED EVEN HIGHER.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM

THE NAM AND GFS ARE PROGGING A BRIEF PERIOD OF QPF ALONG A
BAROCLINIC ZONE DRAPED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...THE
ECMWF MODEL IS GOING DRY. FORCING LOOKS VERY WEAK WITH THE GFS
SHOWING EXTREMELY WEAK Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND A LACK OF A LOW
LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE...ALONG WITH NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING DRY
LOW LEVEL CONDITIONS. DECIDED NOT TO PUT ANY POPS IN GRIDS FOR LATE
FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY DUE TO EVIDENCE AGAINST CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
UNTIL AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRANSLATES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
REGION.

LONG TERM...

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH

A STRENGTHENING 130 KT UPPER LEVEL JET STEAK OVER SOUTHERN CANADA
WILL PROVIDE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENT FLOW OVER THE REGION...ALONG WITH
A POTENT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH ISENTROPIC OMEGA WITH
VALUES OVER -30 UBAR/S...SUPPORTING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ARE IN
SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH THE NAME AS TO THE TIMING OF THE INITIAL
PRECIPITATION BAND...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND LAST THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. NAM BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THE DAY SUNDAY AS ELEVATED CAPE OF NEARLY 100 J/KG DOES EXIST.
MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS APPEARS LIKELY WITH THIS SYSTEM.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM

THE LARGE SCALE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE OUT BY MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY
MORNING. MODELS SHOW DRIER CONDITIONS EARLY TUESDAY. MODELS ARE
SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE STICKING AROUND
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE OTHER BIG STORY IS A COOL DOWN FOR THE
WEEK...AS LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER 30S TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH LOOKS TO BE SWING THROUGH THE
REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING...KEEPING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION IN THE
FORECAST AREA INTO THURSDAY.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH OF THE
STATE...WILL REMAIN IN VFR THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH RELATIVELY
LIGHT WINDS. THE ONLY CONCERN IS THE TIMING OF THE LAKE BREEZE. WITH
THE HIGH TO THE SOUTH...BLENDED GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LAKE BREEZE WILL
REMAIN OFFSHORE UNTIL AROUND 18Z...AT WHICH POINT IT WILL IMPACT
LAKESHORE SITES...AND MOVING TO UES BY 21Z. THAT SAID...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE LAKEBREEZE COME ONSHORE AN HOUR OR TWO LATER OR
EARLIER THAN FORECASTED IN TAFS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HENTZ
TONIGHT/FRIDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...BSH
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...JTS




000
FXUS63 KMKX 170327
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1027 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.UPDATE...


&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH OF THE
STATE. PATCHY IFR IN RIVER VALLEYS...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST WHERE
MARINE AIR IS A BIT MORE MOIST. EXPECT A LAKE BREEZE OFF LAKE
MICHIGAN AGAIN FRIDAY LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON. WITH THE HIGH TO
THE SOUTH...BLENDED GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LAKE BREEZE WILL REMAIN
OFFSHORE UNTIL AROUND 16Z...AT WHICH POINT IT WILL IMPACT
LAKESHORE SITES...AND MOVING TO UES BY 21Z. SCATTERED AFTERNOON
CUMULUS AROUND 6 THSD FT...EXCEPT NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015/

SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

HIGH PRESSURE HAS BUILT IN SOUTH OF THE STATE WITH MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT. ADDITIONALLY...THE DEPTH OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN DRY
THROUGH AT LEAST TOMORROW AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THE HIGH
PRESSURE/ZONAL PATTERN ALOFT AND THE LACK OF MOISTURE IN THE
ATMOSPHERE SHOULD COMBINE FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES UNTIL TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...WHEN SOME DIURNAL CU ARE LIKELY. THE GFS AND NAM SUGGEST
SOME LATE AFTERNOON SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO...BUT AT THIS POINT HAVE LITTLE CONFIDENCE THIS WILL HAPPEN...SO
KEPT POPS LOW THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

THE PRIMARY CONCERNS WITH THIS FORECAST ARE THE TIMING OF THE LAKE
BREEZE AND TEMPERATURES. THE WEAK HIGH TO OUR SOUTH SHOULD KEEP THE
LAKE BREEZE OFFSHORE INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW TEMPERATURES ALONG THE LAKESHORE TO REACH NEAR 60.
INLAND...MUCH OF THE HIGH RES GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY THE BIAS
CORRECTED GUIDANCE...SUGGESTS TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE HIGH
70S. 925 TEMPS SUPPORT HIGH 70S...ESPECIALLY WEST...SO ADJUSTED
FORECAST HIGHS TO MATCH. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER BUILDS
IN...HIGH TEMPS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED EVEN HIGHER.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM

THE NAM AND GFS ARE PROGGING A BRIEF PERIOD OF QPF ALONG A
BAROCLINIC ZONE DRAPED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...THE
ECMWF MODEL IS GOING DRY. FORCING LOOKS VERY WEAK WITH THE GFS
SHOWING EXTREMELY WEAK Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND A LACK OF A LOW
LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE...ALONG WITH NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING DRY
LOW LEVEL CONDITIONS. DECIDED NOT TO PUT ANY POPS IN GRIDS FOR LATE
FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY DUE TO EVIDENCE AGAINST CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
UNTIL AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRANSLATES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
REGION.

LONG TERM...

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH

A STRENGTHENING 130 KT UPPER LEVEL JET STEAK OVER SOUTHERN CANADA
WILL PROVIDE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENT FLOW OVER THE REGION...ALONG WITH
A POTENT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH ISENTROPIC OMEGA WITH
VALUES OVER -30 UBAR/S...SUPPORTING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ARE IN
SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH THE NAME AS TO THE TIMING OF THE INITIAL
PRECIPITATION BAND...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND LAST THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. NAM BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THE DAY SUNDAY AS ELEVATED CAPE OF NEARLY 100 J/KG DOES EXIST.
MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS APPEARS LIKELY WITH THIS SYSTEM.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM

THE LARGE SCALE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE OUT BY MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY
MORNING. MODELS SHOW DRIER CONDITIONS EARLY TUESDAY. MODELS ARE
SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE STICKING AROUND
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE OTHER BIG STORY IS A COOL DOWN FOR THE
WEEK...AS LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER 30S TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH LOOKS TO BE SWING THROUGH THE
REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING...KEEPING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION IN THE
FORECAST AREA INTO THURSDAY.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH OF THE
STATE...WILL REMAIN IN VFR THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH RELATIVELY
LIGHT WINDS. THE ONLY CONCERN IS THE TIMING OF THE LAKE BREEZE. WITH
THE HIGH TO THE SOUTH...BLENDED GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LAKE BREEZE WILL
REMAIN OFFSHORE UNTIL AROUND 18Z...AT WHICH POINT IT WILL IMPACT
LAKESHORE SITES...AND MOVING TO UES BY 21Z. THAT SAID...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE LAKEBREEZE COME ONSHORE AN HOUR OR TWO LATER OR
EARLIER THAN FORECASTED IN TAFS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HENTZ
TONIGHT/FRIDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...BSH
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...JTS





000
FXUS63 KMKX 162032
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
332 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.SHORT TERM...

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

HIGH PRESSURE HAS BUILT IN SOUTH OF THE STATE WITH MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT. ADDITIONALLY...THE DEPTH OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN DRY
THROUGH AT LEAST TOMORROW AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THE HIGH
PRESSURE/ZONAL PATTERN ALOFT AND THE LACK OF MOISTURE IN THE
ATMOSPHERE SHOULD COMBINE FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES UNTIL TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...WHEN SOME DIURNAL CU ARE LIKELY. THE GFS AND NAM SUGGEST
SOME LATE AFTERNOON SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO...BUT AT THIS POINT HAVE LITTLE CONFIDENCE THIS WILL HAPPEN...SO
KEPT POPS LOW THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

THE PRIMARY CONCERNS WITH THIS FORECAST ARE THE TIMING OF THE LAKE
BREEZE AND TEMPERATURES. THE WEAK HIGH TO OUR SOUTH SHOULD KEEP THE
LAKE BREEZE OFFSHORE INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW TEMPERATURES ALONG THE LAKESHORE TO REACH NEAR 60.
INLAND...MUCH OF THE HIGH RES GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY THE BIAS
CORRECTED GUIDANCE...SUGGESTS TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE HIGH
70S. 925 TEMPS SUPPORT HIGH 70S...ESPECIALLY WEST...SO ADJUSTED
FORECAST HIGHS TO MATCH. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER BUILDS
IN...HIGH TEMPS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED EVEN HIGHER.

.FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM

THE NAM AND GFS ARE PROGGING A BRIEF PERIOD OF QPF ALONG A
BAROCLINIC ZONE DRAPED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...THE
ECMWF MODEL IS GOING DRY. FORCING LOOKS VERY WEAK WITH THE GFS
SHOWING EXTREMELY WEAK Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND A LACK OF A LOW
LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE...ALONG WITH NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING DRY
LOW LEVEL CONDITIONS. DECIDED NOT TO PUT ANY POPS IN GRIDS FOR LATE
FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY DUE TO EVIDENCE AGAINST CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
UNTIL AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRANSLATES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
REGION.

.LONG TERM...

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH

A STRENGTHENING 130 KT UPPER LEVEL JET STEAK OVER SOUTHERN CANADA
WILL PROVIDE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENT FLOW OVER THE REGION...ALONG WITH
A POTENT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH ISENTROPIC OMEGA WITH
VALUES OVER -30 UBAR/S...SUPPORTING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ARE IN
SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH THE NAME AS TO THE TIMING OF THE INITIAL
PRECIPITATION BAND...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND LAST THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. NAM BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THE DAY SUNDAY AS ELEVATED CAPE OF NEARLY 100 J/KG DOES EXIST.
MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS APPEARS LIKELY WITH THIS SYSTEM.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM

THE LARGE SCALE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE OUT BY MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY
MORNING. MODELS SHOW DRIER CONDITIONS EARLY TUESDAY. MODELS ARE
SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE STICKING AROUND
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE OTHER BIG STORY IS A COOL DOWN FOR THE
WEEK...AS LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER 30S TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH LOOKS TO BE SWING THROUGH THE
REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING...KEEPING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION IN THE
FORECAST AREA INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH OF THE
STATE...WILL REMAIN IN VFR THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH RELATIVELY
LIGHT WINDS. THE ONLY CONCERN IS THE TIMING OF THE LAKE BREEZE. WITH
THE HIGH TO THE SOUTH...BLENDED GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LAKE BREEZE WILL
REMAIN OFFSHORE UNTIL AROUND 18Z...AT WHICH POINT IT WILL IMPACT
LAKESHORE SITES...AND MOVING TO UES BY 21Z. THAT SAID...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE LAKEBREEZE COME ONSHORE AN HOUR OR TWO LATER OR
EARLIER THAN FORECASTED IN TAFS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.

&&

$$

TONIGHT/FRIDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...BSH
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...JTS




000
FXUS63 KMKX 162032
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
332 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.SHORT TERM...

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

HIGH PRESSURE HAS BUILT IN SOUTH OF THE STATE WITH MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT. ADDITIONALLY...THE DEPTH OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN DRY
THROUGH AT LEAST TOMORROW AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THE HIGH
PRESSURE/ZONAL PATTERN ALOFT AND THE LACK OF MOISTURE IN THE
ATMOSPHERE SHOULD COMBINE FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES UNTIL TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...WHEN SOME DIURNAL CU ARE LIKELY. THE GFS AND NAM SUGGEST
SOME LATE AFTERNOON SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO...BUT AT THIS POINT HAVE LITTLE CONFIDENCE THIS WILL HAPPEN...SO
KEPT POPS LOW THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

THE PRIMARY CONCERNS WITH THIS FORECAST ARE THE TIMING OF THE LAKE
BREEZE AND TEMPERATURES. THE WEAK HIGH TO OUR SOUTH SHOULD KEEP THE
LAKE BREEZE OFFSHORE INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW TEMPERATURES ALONG THE LAKESHORE TO REACH NEAR 60.
INLAND...MUCH OF THE HIGH RES GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY THE BIAS
CORRECTED GUIDANCE...SUGGESTS TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE HIGH
70S. 925 TEMPS SUPPORT HIGH 70S...ESPECIALLY WEST...SO ADJUSTED
FORECAST HIGHS TO MATCH. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER BUILDS
IN...HIGH TEMPS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED EVEN HIGHER.

.FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM

THE NAM AND GFS ARE PROGGING A BRIEF PERIOD OF QPF ALONG A
BAROCLINIC ZONE DRAPED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...THE
ECMWF MODEL IS GOING DRY. FORCING LOOKS VERY WEAK WITH THE GFS
SHOWING EXTREMELY WEAK Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND A LACK OF A LOW
LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE...ALONG WITH NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING DRY
LOW LEVEL CONDITIONS. DECIDED NOT TO PUT ANY POPS IN GRIDS FOR LATE
FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY DUE TO EVIDENCE AGAINST CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
UNTIL AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRANSLATES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
REGION.

.LONG TERM...

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH

A STRENGTHENING 130 KT UPPER LEVEL JET STEAK OVER SOUTHERN CANADA
WILL PROVIDE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENT FLOW OVER THE REGION...ALONG WITH
A POTENT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH ISENTROPIC OMEGA WITH
VALUES OVER -30 UBAR/S...SUPPORTING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ARE IN
SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH THE NAME AS TO THE TIMING OF THE INITIAL
PRECIPITATION BAND...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND LAST THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. NAM BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THE DAY SUNDAY AS ELEVATED CAPE OF NEARLY 100 J/KG DOES EXIST.
MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS APPEARS LIKELY WITH THIS SYSTEM.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM

THE LARGE SCALE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE OUT BY MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY
MORNING. MODELS SHOW DRIER CONDITIONS EARLY TUESDAY. MODELS ARE
SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE STICKING AROUND
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE OTHER BIG STORY IS A COOL DOWN FOR THE
WEEK...AS LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER 30S TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH LOOKS TO BE SWING THROUGH THE
REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING...KEEPING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION IN THE
FORECAST AREA INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH OF THE
STATE...WILL REMAIN IN VFR THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH RELATIVELY
LIGHT WINDS. THE ONLY CONCERN IS THE TIMING OF THE LAKE BREEZE. WITH
THE HIGH TO THE SOUTH...BLENDED GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LAKE BREEZE WILL
REMAIN OFFSHORE UNTIL AROUND 18Z...AT WHICH POINT IT WILL IMPACT
LAKESHORE SITES...AND MOVING TO UES BY 21Z. THAT SAID...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE LAKEBREEZE COME ONSHORE AN HOUR OR TWO LATER OR
EARLIER THAN FORECASTED IN TAFS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.

&&

$$

TONIGHT/FRIDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...BSH
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...JTS





000
FXUS63 KMKX 161747 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1247 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.UPDATE...

AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO SCOOT OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST...THE CLOUDS ACROSS FAR SE WI WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF IN
THE SAME DIRECTION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS SHORT
WAVE...BRINGING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON...
AND SHOULD CLEAR THE LAKE SHORE BY EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REACH NEAR 70 INLAND WHILE LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP THE
LAKESHORE COMMUNITIES IN THE 50S. THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE
CWA LOOKS TO BE VERY DRY TODAY...WITH THE RH FALLING TO AROUND 25%.

THE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD HOLD THROUGH FRIDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
IN THE MORNING BEFORE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES BUILD IN IN THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPS ON FRIDAY SHOULD BE JUST A BIT WARMER THAN TODAY WITH HIGHS
TOUCHING THE MID 70S INLAND. WESTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP THE LAKE
BREEZE OFFSHORE UNTIL MID-AFTERNOON...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES ALONG
THE LAKE TO GET NEAR 60 BEFORE THE LAKE BREEZE MOVES IN.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AS CLOUDS IN THE SE
CONTINUE TO CLEAR OUT OF THE AREA. ONCE CLOUDS MOVE OUT WE SHOULD
STAY CLEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS LOOK TO BE LIGHT THROUGH MOST
OF THE PERIOD. THERE IS A CHANCES OF SOME SHOWERS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...BUT CHOSE TO LEAVE IT OUT FOR NOW AS CONFIDENCE IN THERE
SHOWERS OCCURRING IS LOW AT THIS POINT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015/

SHORT TERM...

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE

NAM HAS SCATTERED QPF PROGGED OVER THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
MORNING. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY DURING THE DAY...UNTIL A WHAT?
TRANSLATES INTO THE REGION. SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER
MIDWEST LATE SATURDAY.

LONG TERM...

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE

A STRENTHENING 120+ KT UPPER LEVEL JET STEAK OVER SOUTHERN CANADA
WILL PROVIDE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENT FLOW OVER THE REGION...ALONG WITH
A POTENT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH DECENT ISENTROPIC OMEGA
WITH VALUES OF [] SUPPORTING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. MODELS ARE IN SOME DISAGREEMENT AS TO THE
TIMING OF THE INITIAL PRECIPITATION BAND...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE
PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND LAST THROUGH THE
DAY MONDAY. ANY MENTION OF THUNDER? NAM AND GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
DON/T APPEAR TO BE OPTIMISTIC FOR ANY THUNDER.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE

THE LARGE SCALE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE OUT BY MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS SHOW
DRIER CONDITIONS EARLY TUESDAY. THE ECMWF IS SHOWING THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE STICKING AROUND THROUGH THE DAY
TUESDAY...WHILE THE GFS SHOWS THE PRECIPITATION CEASING BY EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. THE OTHER BIG STORY IS A COOL DOWN FOR THE
WEEK...AS LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE [] TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. NEXT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY?

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BSH
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DAVIS
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MRC




000
FXUS63 KMKX 161747 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1247 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.UPDATE...

AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO SCOOT OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST...THE CLOUDS ACROSS FAR SE WI WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF IN
THE SAME DIRECTION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS SHORT
WAVE...BRINGING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON...
AND SHOULD CLEAR THE LAKE SHORE BY EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REACH NEAR 70 INLAND WHILE LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP THE
LAKESHORE COMMUNITIES IN THE 50S. THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE
CWA LOOKS TO BE VERY DRY TODAY...WITH THE RH FALLING TO AROUND 25%.

THE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD HOLD THROUGH FRIDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
IN THE MORNING BEFORE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES BUILD IN IN THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPS ON FRIDAY SHOULD BE JUST A BIT WARMER THAN TODAY WITH HIGHS
TOUCHING THE MID 70S INLAND. WESTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP THE LAKE
BREEZE OFFSHORE UNTIL MID-AFTERNOON...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES ALONG
THE LAKE TO GET NEAR 60 BEFORE THE LAKE BREEZE MOVES IN.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AS CLOUDS IN THE SE
CONTINUE TO CLEAR OUT OF THE AREA. ONCE CLOUDS MOVE OUT WE SHOULD
STAY CLEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS LOOK TO BE LIGHT THROUGH MOST
OF THE PERIOD. THERE IS A CHANCES OF SOME SHOWERS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...BUT CHOSE TO LEAVE IT OUT FOR NOW AS CONFIDENCE IN THERE
SHOWERS OCCURRING IS LOW AT THIS POINT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015/

SHORT TERM...

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE

NAM HAS SCATTERED QPF PROGGED OVER THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
MORNING. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY DURING THE DAY...UNTIL A WHAT?
TRANSLATES INTO THE REGION. SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER
MIDWEST LATE SATURDAY.

LONG TERM...

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE

A STRENTHENING 120+ KT UPPER LEVEL JET STEAK OVER SOUTHERN CANADA
WILL PROVIDE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENT FLOW OVER THE REGION...ALONG WITH
A POTENT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH DECENT ISENTROPIC OMEGA
WITH VALUES OF [] SUPPORTING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. MODELS ARE IN SOME DISAGREEMENT AS TO THE
TIMING OF THE INITIAL PRECIPITATION BAND...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE
PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND LAST THROUGH THE
DAY MONDAY. ANY MENTION OF THUNDER? NAM AND GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
DON/T APPEAR TO BE OPTIMISTIC FOR ANY THUNDER.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE

THE LARGE SCALE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE OUT BY MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS SHOW
DRIER CONDITIONS EARLY TUESDAY. THE ECMWF IS SHOWING THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE STICKING AROUND THROUGH THE DAY
TUESDAY...WHILE THE GFS SHOWS THE PRECIPITATION CEASING BY EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. THE OTHER BIG STORY IS A COOL DOWN FOR THE
WEEK...AS LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE [] TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. NEXT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY?

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BSH
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DAVIS
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MRC





000
FXUS63 KMKX 160828
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
328 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

THE RAIN ACROSS FAR EASTERN IL CONTINUES TO CREEP NORTH...TIED TO A
DECENT MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TAKING A SIMILAR TRACK.  THE ATMOSPHERE
IS STILL QUITE DRY...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THIS PRECIP STILL HAS A
CHANCE TO CLIP THE FAR SOUTHEAST WI COUNTIES BETWEEN ABOUT 6-9 AM
THIS MORNING. IT THEN MOVES OFF AND WE SEE GRADUAL CLEARING AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD AGAIN. LIGHT WINDS AND SOME SUNSHINE SHOULD
ALLOW TEMPS TO AGAIN CLIMB INTO THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 WEST OF
MADISON...BUT THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP IT COOLER CLOSE
TO LAKE MICHIGAN. OVERALL...VERY SIMILAR TEMPS TO YESTERDAY.

QUIET WEATHER TONIGHT UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

FRIDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A REALLY NICE DAY. WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL
ALLOW FOR A LIGHT WINDS AND A LAKE BREEZE. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER NEAR
THE LAKE AGAIN... BUT NOT BEFORE RISING INTO THE MID 60S. INLAND...
925MB TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 17C WHICH SHOULD YIELD HIGHS IN THE MID
70S. EXPECT INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT WITH AN UPPER JET IN THE VICINITY AND SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE.
THE GFS AND NAM INTRODUCE QPF INTO SOUTHERN WI BY LATE FRI NIGHT...
BUT THIS APPEARS TO BE OVERDONE GIVEN THE PERSISTENT DRY EASTERLY
FLOW AND WEAK FORCING.

.LONG TERM...

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IN THE WAKE OF A LOW TRACKING THROUGH SOUTHERN
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC WILL SLIDE DOWN LAKE MICHIGAN ON SATURDAY. EXPECT
A PUSH OF COLDER AIR WITH WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHEAST TO EAST FROM
THE LAKE. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S NEAR THE LAKESHORE
AND 60S INLAND. A FEW LOCATIONS COULD SEE 70 WELL INLAND IF THE COLD
FRONT GETS DELAYED.

A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL EJECT INTO THE MIDWEST AND BECOME ABSORBED
INTO A DEEP SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING SOUTHERN CANADA/UPPER MIDWEST
ON SUNDAY. MODELS ARE TRENDING A LITTLE QUICKER WITH BRINGING PRECIP
INTO WI SATURDAY NIGHT. THE MOST LIKELY TIME PERIOD FOR RAIN IN
SOUTHERN WI WILL BE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE AND
LEADING SHORTWAVE TRACK ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

THAT DEEP SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BECOME A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER
NORTHERN MN BY MONDAY MORNING. WINDS IN SOUTHERN WI WILL INCREASE
OUT OF THE WEST ON MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM DUE TO THE
TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. COLD AIR WILL WRAP INTO SOUTHERN WI
MONDAY AFTERNOON. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ALLOW FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE MAY SUPPORT SOME SNOW
SHOWERS MIXED WITH RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH TUESDAY. THE ECMWF IS NOW
THE COLDER MODEL. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S AND LOWS WILL BE IN THE
30S. THAT COLD UPPER LOW WILL HANG AROUND THROUGH MOST OF THE WORK
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD CLIP THE 3 SOUTHEAST WI TAF
SITES BETWEEN 12-14Z THIS MORNING WITH MVFR CIGS ARRIVING WITH IT.
THOSE LOWER CIGS COULD LINGER THROUGH ABOUT NOON TODAY...THEN
CLEARING RETURNS WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE TAF PERIOD. KMSN WILL LIKELY STAY VFR THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD
AS THE MVFR CIGS WILL STAY TO THE EAST. WINDS WILL BE UNDER 10KTS AT
ALL TAF SITES.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DAVIS
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MRC





000
FXUS63 KMKX 160828
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
328 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

THE RAIN ACROSS FAR EASTERN IL CONTINUES TO CREEP NORTH...TIED TO A
DECENT MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TAKING A SIMILAR TRACK.  THE ATMOSPHERE
IS STILL QUITE DRY...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THIS PRECIP STILL HAS A
CHANCE TO CLIP THE FAR SOUTHEAST WI COUNTIES BETWEEN ABOUT 6-9 AM
THIS MORNING. IT THEN MOVES OFF AND WE SEE GRADUAL CLEARING AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD AGAIN. LIGHT WINDS AND SOME SUNSHINE SHOULD
ALLOW TEMPS TO AGAIN CLIMB INTO THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 WEST OF
MADISON...BUT THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP IT COOLER CLOSE
TO LAKE MICHIGAN. OVERALL...VERY SIMILAR TEMPS TO YESTERDAY.

QUIET WEATHER TONIGHT UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

FRIDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A REALLY NICE DAY. WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL
ALLOW FOR A LIGHT WINDS AND A LAKE BREEZE. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER NEAR
THE LAKE AGAIN... BUT NOT BEFORE RISING INTO THE MID 60S. INLAND...
925MB TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 17C WHICH SHOULD YIELD HIGHS IN THE MID
70S. EXPECT INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT WITH AN UPPER JET IN THE VICINITY AND SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE.
THE GFS AND NAM INTRODUCE QPF INTO SOUTHERN WI BY LATE FRI NIGHT...
BUT THIS APPEARS TO BE OVERDONE GIVEN THE PERSISTENT DRY EASTERLY
FLOW AND WEAK FORCING.

.LONG TERM...

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IN THE WAKE OF A LOW TRACKING THROUGH SOUTHERN
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC WILL SLIDE DOWN LAKE MICHIGAN ON SATURDAY. EXPECT
A PUSH OF COLDER AIR WITH WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHEAST TO EAST FROM
THE LAKE. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S NEAR THE LAKESHORE
AND 60S INLAND. A FEW LOCATIONS COULD SEE 70 WELL INLAND IF THE COLD
FRONT GETS DELAYED.

A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL EJECT INTO THE MIDWEST AND BECOME ABSORBED
INTO A DEEP SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING SOUTHERN CANADA/UPPER MIDWEST
ON SUNDAY. MODELS ARE TRENDING A LITTLE QUICKER WITH BRINGING PRECIP
INTO WI SATURDAY NIGHT. THE MOST LIKELY TIME PERIOD FOR RAIN IN
SOUTHERN WI WILL BE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE AND
LEADING SHORTWAVE TRACK ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

THAT DEEP SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BECOME A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER
NORTHERN MN BY MONDAY MORNING. WINDS IN SOUTHERN WI WILL INCREASE
OUT OF THE WEST ON MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM DUE TO THE
TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. COLD AIR WILL WRAP INTO SOUTHERN WI
MONDAY AFTERNOON. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ALLOW FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE MAY SUPPORT SOME SNOW
SHOWERS MIXED WITH RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH TUESDAY. THE ECMWF IS NOW
THE COLDER MODEL. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S AND LOWS WILL BE IN THE
30S. THAT COLD UPPER LOW WILL HANG AROUND THROUGH MOST OF THE WORK
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD CLIP THE 3 SOUTHEAST WI TAF
SITES BETWEEN 12-14Z THIS MORNING WITH MVFR CIGS ARRIVING WITH IT.
THOSE LOWER CIGS COULD LINGER THROUGH ABOUT NOON TODAY...THEN
CLEARING RETURNS WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE TAF PERIOD. KMSN WILL LIKELY STAY VFR THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD
AS THE MVFR CIGS WILL STAY TO THE EAST. WINDS WILL BE UNDER 10KTS AT
ALL TAF SITES.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DAVIS
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MRC




000
FXUS63 KMKX 160356
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1056 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015

.UPDATE...

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...UNTIL A WEAK
MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY MORNING. THIS
TROUGH...ALONG WITH MOISTENING LOW LEVELS...MAINLY SOUTHEAST...WILL
BRING CHANCES OF SHOWERS FOR OUR SOUTHEASTERN TAF SITES.

MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF A LITTLE ON THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...KEEPING IT MAINLY OVER FAR SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. AS A
RESULT ANY IFR MAY STAY OUT OVER LAKE MICHIGAN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015/

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

THE REMNANTS OF A 1003MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
OFF TO THE EAST...ALONG WITH A MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY AS INDICATED BY NAM/RAP BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS.

HOWEVER...THIS RIDGE PATTERN WILL BE REPLACED BY A FAIRLY WEAK
500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH SHOULD ARRIVE BY EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. THE STRONGEST OF THE 500MB SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPEARS TO
REMAIN TO OUR SOUTHWEST OVER INDIANA...AS HIGHER ISENTROPIC OMEGA
SHOULD STAY AWAY FROM US.

HOWEVER...WEAK FORCING COULD RESULT IN CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS OVER OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES...AS SOUNDINGS SHOW
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC OMEGA. QPF AMOUNTS
APPEAR TO BE SMALL...NO MORE THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. THE 18Z
HRRR MODEL INDICATES PRECIPITATION BEGINNING SHORTLY AFTER 0600Z
THURSDAY.

WINDS WILL ALSO WEAKEN TONIGHT AS SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS.
WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE EAST UNTIL THE LATE MORNING WHEN THEY
BACK TOWARDS THE NORTH...THEN FROM THE NORTHWEST BY MID AFTERNOON
THURSDAY.

SHORT TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
FEATURES DURING THIS PERIOD. THEY TAKE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY
EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH A WEAK
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SLIDING THROUGH THE AREA LATER FRIDAY NIGHT.
EASTERLY WINDS INCREASE SATURDAY...WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT. THEY KEEP THE AREA DRY DURING THIS PERIOD.

THE NAM IS AN OUTLIER WITH QPF BEING PUSHED INTO THE AREA FROM
THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES.
LEANED TOWARDS THE OTHER MODELS AND WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST.

WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 70S ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY
INLAND...WITH A LAKE BREEZE KEEPING LAKESHORE AREAS COOLER.
ONSHORE WINDS SATURDAY WILL BRING DOWN TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
AREA...50S NEAR THE LAKE WITH MID 60S WELL INLAND.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

GFS/ECMWF MODELS ARE GENERALLY SHOWING LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED
500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH A CLOSED 500 MB LOW MOVING
ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA INTO LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO MID
WEEK.

THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS WITH THE LOW AND
500 MB SHORTWAVE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...SO WILL GO WITH
CONSENSUS BLEND OF MODELS FOR POPS AND TEMPERATURES DURING THIS
PERIOD.

ALL IN ALL...IT DOES LOOK LIKE A WETTER PERIOD FOR MAINLY SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE AREA. IT DOES LOOK TO BE A COOLER PERIOD
WITH THE CLOSED LOW INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH LOW
CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS WITH PASSING 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMA.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TONIGHT...UNTIL A
WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY
MORNING. THIS LOW PRESSURE...ALONG WITH MOISTENING LOW
LEVELS...WILL BRING CHANCES OF SHOWERS FOR OUR SOUTHEASTERN TAF
SITES.

PLACED MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS INTO TAFS DUE TO CONSENSUS MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATING SUCH CONDITIONS...INCLUDING THE GFS AND NAM
MOS GUIDANCE...CONSSHORT...GLAMP...AND SREF ENSEMBLES. PLACED MVFR
VSBYS AND IFR CIGS IN KUES...KMKE AND KENW.

WINDS WILL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AS SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS.
WINDS WILL REMAIN IN AN EASTERLY DIRECTION TONIGHT UNTIL LATE
THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL THEN TURN TOWARDS A NORTHERLY
DIRECTION...THEN FROM THE NORTHWEST BY MID AFTERNOON THURSDAY.

THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR FOR THE
KMKE AND KENW TAF SITES...AS SOME OF THE MODELS ARE INDICATING
SOME DEGREE OF LLWS...WHILE THE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ARE NOT AS
OPTIMISTIC. LLWS WAS BORDERLINE FOR MKE BETWEEN 04Z TO 07Z
TONIGHT. KEPT LLWS OUT OF THE TAFS...DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY AND
BORDERLINE NATURE OF THE SHEAR VALUES. WILL LET THE EVENING
AVIATION FORECASTER HAVE THE FINAL SAY ON THIS.

FIRE WEATHER...

RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR OUR WESTERN COUNTIES. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AND GUSTY EAST
WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE...LEADING TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TONIGHT...AS DIURNAL
HEATING WILL RAMP DOWN AFTER SUNSET. WINDS WILL ALSO WEAKEN AS
SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. DEW POINTS LOOK TO STILL BE LOW
THURSDAY...MUCH LIKE THEY WERE TODAY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HENTZ
TONIGHT/THURSDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...JTS
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WOOD




000
FXUS63 KMKX 160356
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1056 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015

.UPDATE...

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...UNTIL A WEAK
MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY MORNING. THIS
TROUGH...ALONG WITH MOISTENING LOW LEVELS...MAINLY SOUTHEAST...WILL
BRING CHANCES OF SHOWERS FOR OUR SOUTHEASTERN TAF SITES.

MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF A LITTLE ON THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...KEEPING IT MAINLY OVER FAR SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. AS A
RESULT ANY IFR MAY STAY OUT OVER LAKE MICHIGAN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015/

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

THE REMNANTS OF A 1003MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
OFF TO THE EAST...ALONG WITH A MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY AS INDICATED BY NAM/RAP BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS.

HOWEVER...THIS RIDGE PATTERN WILL BE REPLACED BY A FAIRLY WEAK
500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH SHOULD ARRIVE BY EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. THE STRONGEST OF THE 500MB SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPEARS TO
REMAIN TO OUR SOUTHWEST OVER INDIANA...AS HIGHER ISENTROPIC OMEGA
SHOULD STAY AWAY FROM US.

HOWEVER...WEAK FORCING COULD RESULT IN CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS OVER OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES...AS SOUNDINGS SHOW
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC OMEGA. QPF AMOUNTS
APPEAR TO BE SMALL...NO MORE THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. THE 18Z
HRRR MODEL INDICATES PRECIPITATION BEGINNING SHORTLY AFTER 0600Z
THURSDAY.

WINDS WILL ALSO WEAKEN TONIGHT AS SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS.
WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE EAST UNTIL THE LATE MORNING WHEN THEY
BACK TOWARDS THE NORTH...THEN FROM THE NORTHWEST BY MID AFTERNOON
THURSDAY.

SHORT TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
FEATURES DURING THIS PERIOD. THEY TAKE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY
EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH A WEAK
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SLIDING THROUGH THE AREA LATER FRIDAY NIGHT.
EASTERLY WINDS INCREASE SATURDAY...WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT. THEY KEEP THE AREA DRY DURING THIS PERIOD.

THE NAM IS AN OUTLIER WITH QPF BEING PUSHED INTO THE AREA FROM
THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES.
LEANED TOWARDS THE OTHER MODELS AND WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST.

WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 70S ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY
INLAND...WITH A LAKE BREEZE KEEPING LAKESHORE AREAS COOLER.
ONSHORE WINDS SATURDAY WILL BRING DOWN TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
AREA...50S NEAR THE LAKE WITH MID 60S WELL INLAND.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

GFS/ECMWF MODELS ARE GENERALLY SHOWING LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED
500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH A CLOSED 500 MB LOW MOVING
ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA INTO LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO MID
WEEK.

THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS WITH THE LOW AND
500 MB SHORTWAVE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...SO WILL GO WITH
CONSENSUS BLEND OF MODELS FOR POPS AND TEMPERATURES DURING THIS
PERIOD.

ALL IN ALL...IT DOES LOOK LIKE A WETTER PERIOD FOR MAINLY SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE AREA. IT DOES LOOK TO BE A COOLER PERIOD
WITH THE CLOSED LOW INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH LOW
CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS WITH PASSING 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMA.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TONIGHT...UNTIL A
WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY
MORNING. THIS LOW PRESSURE...ALONG WITH MOISTENING LOW
LEVELS...WILL BRING CHANCES OF SHOWERS FOR OUR SOUTHEASTERN TAF
SITES.

PLACED MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS INTO TAFS DUE TO CONSENSUS MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATING SUCH CONDITIONS...INCLUDING THE GFS AND NAM
MOS GUIDANCE...CONSSHORT...GLAMP...AND SREF ENSEMBLES. PLACED MVFR
VSBYS AND IFR CIGS IN KUES...KMKE AND KENW.

WINDS WILL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AS SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS.
WINDS WILL REMAIN IN AN EASTERLY DIRECTION TONIGHT UNTIL LATE
THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL THEN TURN TOWARDS A NORTHERLY
DIRECTION...THEN FROM THE NORTHWEST BY MID AFTERNOON THURSDAY.

THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR FOR THE
KMKE AND KENW TAF SITES...AS SOME OF THE MODELS ARE INDICATING
SOME DEGREE OF LLWS...WHILE THE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ARE NOT AS
OPTIMISTIC. LLWS WAS BORDERLINE FOR MKE BETWEEN 04Z TO 07Z
TONIGHT. KEPT LLWS OUT OF THE TAFS...DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY AND
BORDERLINE NATURE OF THE SHEAR VALUES. WILL LET THE EVENING
AVIATION FORECASTER HAVE THE FINAL SAY ON THIS.

FIRE WEATHER...

RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR OUR WESTERN COUNTIES. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AND GUSTY EAST
WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE...LEADING TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TONIGHT...AS DIURNAL
HEATING WILL RAMP DOWN AFTER SUNSET. WINDS WILL ALSO WEAKEN AS
SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. DEW POINTS LOOK TO STILL BE LOW
THURSDAY...MUCH LIKE THEY WERE TODAY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HENTZ
TONIGHT/THURSDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...JTS
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WOOD





000
FXUS63 KMKX 160356
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1056 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015

.UPDATE...

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...UNTIL A WEAK
MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY MORNING. THIS
TROUGH...ALONG WITH MOISTENING LOW LEVELS...MAINLY SOUTHEAST...WILL
BRING CHANCES OF SHOWERS FOR OUR SOUTHEASTERN TAF SITES.

MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF A LITTLE ON THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...KEEPING IT MAINLY OVER FAR SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. AS A
RESULT ANY IFR MAY STAY OUT OVER LAKE MICHIGAN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015/

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

THE REMNANTS OF A 1003MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
OFF TO THE EAST...ALONG WITH A MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY AS INDICATED BY NAM/RAP BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS.

HOWEVER...THIS RIDGE PATTERN WILL BE REPLACED BY A FAIRLY WEAK
500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH SHOULD ARRIVE BY EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. THE STRONGEST OF THE 500MB SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPEARS TO
REMAIN TO OUR SOUTHWEST OVER INDIANA...AS HIGHER ISENTROPIC OMEGA
SHOULD STAY AWAY FROM US.

HOWEVER...WEAK FORCING COULD RESULT IN CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS OVER OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES...AS SOUNDINGS SHOW
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC OMEGA. QPF AMOUNTS
APPEAR TO BE SMALL...NO MORE THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. THE 18Z
HRRR MODEL INDICATES PRECIPITATION BEGINNING SHORTLY AFTER 0600Z
THURSDAY.

WINDS WILL ALSO WEAKEN TONIGHT AS SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS.
WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE EAST UNTIL THE LATE MORNING WHEN THEY
BACK TOWARDS THE NORTH...THEN FROM THE NORTHWEST BY MID AFTERNOON
THURSDAY.

SHORT TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
FEATURES DURING THIS PERIOD. THEY TAKE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY
EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH A WEAK
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SLIDING THROUGH THE AREA LATER FRIDAY NIGHT.
EASTERLY WINDS INCREASE SATURDAY...WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT. THEY KEEP THE AREA DRY DURING THIS PERIOD.

THE NAM IS AN OUTLIER WITH QPF BEING PUSHED INTO THE AREA FROM
THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES.
LEANED TOWARDS THE OTHER MODELS AND WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST.

WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 70S ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY
INLAND...WITH A LAKE BREEZE KEEPING LAKESHORE AREAS COOLER.
ONSHORE WINDS SATURDAY WILL BRING DOWN TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
AREA...50S NEAR THE LAKE WITH MID 60S WELL INLAND.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

GFS/ECMWF MODELS ARE GENERALLY SHOWING LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED
500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH A CLOSED 500 MB LOW MOVING
ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA INTO LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO MID
WEEK.

THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS WITH THE LOW AND
500 MB SHORTWAVE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...SO WILL GO WITH
CONSENSUS BLEND OF MODELS FOR POPS AND TEMPERATURES DURING THIS
PERIOD.

ALL IN ALL...IT DOES LOOK LIKE A WETTER PERIOD FOR MAINLY SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE AREA. IT DOES LOOK TO BE A COOLER PERIOD
WITH THE CLOSED LOW INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH LOW
CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS WITH PASSING 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMA.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TONIGHT...UNTIL A
WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY
MORNING. THIS LOW PRESSURE...ALONG WITH MOISTENING LOW
LEVELS...WILL BRING CHANCES OF SHOWERS FOR OUR SOUTHEASTERN TAF
SITES.

PLACED MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS INTO TAFS DUE TO CONSENSUS MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATING SUCH CONDITIONS...INCLUDING THE GFS AND NAM
MOS GUIDANCE...CONSSHORT...GLAMP...AND SREF ENSEMBLES. PLACED MVFR
VSBYS AND IFR CIGS IN KUES...KMKE AND KENW.

WINDS WILL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AS SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS.
WINDS WILL REMAIN IN AN EASTERLY DIRECTION TONIGHT UNTIL LATE
THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL THEN TURN TOWARDS A NORTHERLY
DIRECTION...THEN FROM THE NORTHWEST BY MID AFTERNOON THURSDAY.

THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR FOR THE
KMKE AND KENW TAF SITES...AS SOME OF THE MODELS ARE INDICATING
SOME DEGREE OF LLWS...WHILE THE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ARE NOT AS
OPTIMISTIC. LLWS WAS BORDERLINE FOR MKE BETWEEN 04Z TO 07Z
TONIGHT. KEPT LLWS OUT OF THE TAFS...DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY AND
BORDERLINE NATURE OF THE SHEAR VALUES. WILL LET THE EVENING
AVIATION FORECASTER HAVE THE FINAL SAY ON THIS.

FIRE WEATHER...

RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR OUR WESTERN COUNTIES. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AND GUSTY EAST
WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE...LEADING TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TONIGHT...AS DIURNAL
HEATING WILL RAMP DOWN AFTER SUNSET. WINDS WILL ALSO WEAKEN AS
SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. DEW POINTS LOOK TO STILL BE LOW
THURSDAY...MUCH LIKE THEY WERE TODAY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HENTZ
TONIGHT/THURSDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...JTS
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WOOD




000
FXUS63 KMKX 160356
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1056 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015

.UPDATE...

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...UNTIL A WEAK
MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY MORNING. THIS
TROUGH...ALONG WITH MOISTENING LOW LEVELS...MAINLY SOUTHEAST...WILL
BRING CHANCES OF SHOWERS FOR OUR SOUTHEASTERN TAF SITES.

MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF A LITTLE ON THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...KEEPING IT MAINLY OVER FAR SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. AS A
RESULT ANY IFR MAY STAY OUT OVER LAKE MICHIGAN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015/

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

THE REMNANTS OF A 1003MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
OFF TO THE EAST...ALONG WITH A MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY AS INDICATED BY NAM/RAP BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS.

HOWEVER...THIS RIDGE PATTERN WILL BE REPLACED BY A FAIRLY WEAK
500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH SHOULD ARRIVE BY EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. THE STRONGEST OF THE 500MB SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPEARS TO
REMAIN TO OUR SOUTHWEST OVER INDIANA...AS HIGHER ISENTROPIC OMEGA
SHOULD STAY AWAY FROM US.

HOWEVER...WEAK FORCING COULD RESULT IN CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS OVER OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES...AS SOUNDINGS SHOW
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC OMEGA. QPF AMOUNTS
APPEAR TO BE SMALL...NO MORE THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. THE 18Z
HRRR MODEL INDICATES PRECIPITATION BEGINNING SHORTLY AFTER 0600Z
THURSDAY.

WINDS WILL ALSO WEAKEN TONIGHT AS SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS.
WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE EAST UNTIL THE LATE MORNING WHEN THEY
BACK TOWARDS THE NORTH...THEN FROM THE NORTHWEST BY MID AFTERNOON
THURSDAY.

SHORT TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
FEATURES DURING THIS PERIOD. THEY TAKE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY
EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH A WEAK
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SLIDING THROUGH THE AREA LATER FRIDAY NIGHT.
EASTERLY WINDS INCREASE SATURDAY...WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT. THEY KEEP THE AREA DRY DURING THIS PERIOD.

THE NAM IS AN OUTLIER WITH QPF BEING PUSHED INTO THE AREA FROM
THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES.
LEANED TOWARDS THE OTHER MODELS AND WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST.

WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 70S ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY
INLAND...WITH A LAKE BREEZE KEEPING LAKESHORE AREAS COOLER.
ONSHORE WINDS SATURDAY WILL BRING DOWN TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
AREA...50S NEAR THE LAKE WITH MID 60S WELL INLAND.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

GFS/ECMWF MODELS ARE GENERALLY SHOWING LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED
500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH A CLOSED 500 MB LOW MOVING
ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA INTO LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO MID
WEEK.

THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS WITH THE LOW AND
500 MB SHORTWAVE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...SO WILL GO WITH
CONSENSUS BLEND OF MODELS FOR POPS AND TEMPERATURES DURING THIS
PERIOD.

ALL IN ALL...IT DOES LOOK LIKE A WETTER PERIOD FOR MAINLY SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE AREA. IT DOES LOOK TO BE A COOLER PERIOD
WITH THE CLOSED LOW INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH LOW
CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS WITH PASSING 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMA.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TONIGHT...UNTIL A
WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY
MORNING. THIS LOW PRESSURE...ALONG WITH MOISTENING LOW
LEVELS...WILL BRING CHANCES OF SHOWERS FOR OUR SOUTHEASTERN TAF
SITES.

PLACED MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS INTO TAFS DUE TO CONSENSUS MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATING SUCH CONDITIONS...INCLUDING THE GFS AND NAM
MOS GUIDANCE...CONSSHORT...GLAMP...AND SREF ENSEMBLES. PLACED MVFR
VSBYS AND IFR CIGS IN KUES...KMKE AND KENW.

WINDS WILL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AS SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS.
WINDS WILL REMAIN IN AN EASTERLY DIRECTION TONIGHT UNTIL LATE
THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL THEN TURN TOWARDS A NORTHERLY
DIRECTION...THEN FROM THE NORTHWEST BY MID AFTERNOON THURSDAY.

THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR FOR THE
KMKE AND KENW TAF SITES...AS SOME OF THE MODELS ARE INDICATING
SOME DEGREE OF LLWS...WHILE THE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ARE NOT AS
OPTIMISTIC. LLWS WAS BORDERLINE FOR MKE BETWEEN 04Z TO 07Z
TONIGHT. KEPT LLWS OUT OF THE TAFS...DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY AND
BORDERLINE NATURE OF THE SHEAR VALUES. WILL LET THE EVENING
AVIATION FORECASTER HAVE THE FINAL SAY ON THIS.

FIRE WEATHER...

RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR OUR WESTERN COUNTIES. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AND GUSTY EAST
WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE...LEADING TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TONIGHT...AS DIURNAL
HEATING WILL RAMP DOWN AFTER SUNSET. WINDS WILL ALSO WEAKEN AS
SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. DEW POINTS LOOK TO STILL BE LOW
THURSDAY...MUCH LIKE THEY WERE TODAY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HENTZ
TONIGHT/THURSDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...JTS
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WOOD





000
FXUS63 KMKX 152028
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
328 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015

.TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

THE REMNANTS OF A 1003MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
OFF TO THE EAST...ALONG WITH A MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY AS INDICATED BY NAM/RAP BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS.

HOWEVER...THIS RIDGE PATTERN WILL BE REPLACED BY A FAIRLY WEAK
500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH SHOULD ARRIVE BY EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. THE STRONGEST OF THE 500MB SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPEARS TO
REMAIN TO OUR SOUTHWEST OVER INDIANA...AS HIGHER ISENTROPIC OMEGA
SHOULD STAY AWAY FROM US.

HOWEVER...WEAK FORCING COULD RESULT IN CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS OVER OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES...AS SOUNDINGS SHOW
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC OMEGA. QPF AMOUNTS
APPEAR TO BE SMALL...NO MORE THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. THE 18Z
HRRR MODEL INDICATES PRECIPITATION BEGINNING SHORTLY AFTER 0600Z
THURSDAY.

WINDS WILL ALSO WEAKEN TONIGHT AS SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS.
WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE EAST UNTIL THE LATE MORNING WHEN THEY
BACK TOWARDS THE NORTH...THEN FROM THE NORTHWEST BY MID AFTERNOON
THURSDAY.

.SHORT TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
FEATURES DURING THIS PERIOD. THEY TAKE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY
EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH A WEAK
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SLIDING THROUGH THE AREA LATER FRIDAY NIGHT.
EASTERLY WINDS INCREASE SATURDAY...WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT. THEY KEEP THE AREA DRY DURING THIS PERIOD.

THE NAM IS AN OUTLIER WITH QPF BEING PUSHED INTO THE AREA FROM
THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES.
LEANED TOWARDS THE OTHER MODELS AND WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST.

WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 70S ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY
INLAND...WITH A LAKE BREEZE KEEPING LAKESHORE AREAS COOLER.
ONSHORE WINDS SATURDAY WILL BRING DOWN TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
AREA...50S NEAR THE LAKE WITH MID 60S WELL INLAND.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

GFS/ECMWF MODELS ARE GENERALLY SHOWING LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED
500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH A CLOSED 500 MB LOW MOVING
ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA INTO LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO MID
WEEK.

THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS WITH THE LOW AND
500 MB SHORTWAVE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...SO WILL GO WITH
CONSENSUS BLEND OF MODELS FOR POPS AND TEMPERATURES DURING THIS
PERIOD.

ALL IN ALL...IT DOES LOOK LIKE A WETTER PERIOD FOR MAINLY SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE AREA. IT DOES LOOK TO BE A COOLER PERIOD
WITH THE CLOSED LOW INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH LOW
CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS WITH PASSING 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMA.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TONIGHT...UNTIL A
WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY
MORNING. THIS LOW PRESSURE...ALONG WITH MOISTENING LOW
LEVELS...WILL BRING CHANCES OF SHOWERS FOR OUR SOUTHEASTERN TAF
SITES.

PLACED MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS INTO TAFS DUE TO CONSENSUS MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATING SUCH CONDITIONS...INCLUDING THE GFS AND NAM
MOS GUIDANCE...CONSSHORT...GLAMP...AND SREF ENSEMBLES. PLACED MVFR
VSBYS AND IFR CIGS IN KUES...KMKE AND KENW.

WINDS WILL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AS SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS.
WINDS WILL REMAIN IN AN EASTERLY DIRECTION TONIGHT UNTIL LATE
THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL THEN TURN TOWARDS A NORTHERLY
DIRECTION...THEN FROM THE NORTHWEST BY MID AFTERNOON THURSDAY.

THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR FOR THE
KMKE AND KENW TAF SITES...AS SOME OF THE MODELS ARE INDICATING
SOME DEGREE OF LLWS...WHILE THE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ARE NOT AS
OPTIMISTIC. LLWS WAS BORDERLINE FOR MKE BETWEEN 04Z TO 07Z
TONIGHT. KEPT LLWS OUT OF THE TAFS...DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY AND
BORDERLINE NATURE OF THE SHEAR VALUES. WILL LET THE EVENING
AVIATION FORECASTER HAVE THE FINAL SAY ON THIS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR OUR WESTERN COUNTIES. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AND GUSTY EAST
WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE...LEADING TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TONIGHT...AS DIURNAL
HEATING WILL RAMP DOWN AFTER SUNSET. WINDS WILL ALSO WEAKEN AS
SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. DEW POINTS LOOK TO STILL BE LOW
THURSDAY...MUCH LIKE THEY WERE TODAY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ046-047-056-
     057-062-063-067.

LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TONIGHT/THURSDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...JTS
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WOOD




000
FXUS63 KMKX 151503 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1003 AM CDT WED APR 15 2015

.UPDATE...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT FOR OUR
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOWLY MOVING
EAST OF THE REGION...WHICH SHOULD STAVE OFF ANY PRECIPITATION
DURING THE DAY TODAY. DEW POINTS WILL ONCE AGAIN FALL LATER THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS DIURNAL HEATING RAMPS UP...BUT THEY
SHOULD NOT FALL QUITE AS FAR AS THEY DID TUESDAY AS RAP BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS INDICATE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING ONLY TO 850MB...NOT QUITE
AS DEEP OF MIXING AS WE SAW TUESDAY. GUSTY EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS
TODAY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER ALONG THE LAKE MI SHORE
COMPARED TO FURTHER INLAND...WITH HIGHS NEAR THE LAKE SHORE IN THE
UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S
FURTHER INLAND.

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE TAF SITES...ALTHOUGH WINDS
WILL BE GUSTY FROM THE EAST-SOUTHEAST...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON.
GUSTS WILL BE STRONGER FOR MSN AND UES AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
SHOULD BE TIGHTER FURTHER INLAND FROM LAKE MICHIGAN...ACCORDING
TO HIGH-RES SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE. GUSTS MAY REACH NEAR 20KTS THIS
AFTERNOON FOR MSN AND UES...WHILE ENW AND MKE WILL SEE WEAKER
WINDS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS NOT AS STRONG NEAR THE
LAKESHORE. MAINLY HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS AND STRATUS CLOUDS WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 AM CDT WED APR 15 2015/

SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS BONE DRY TODAY...BUT WE SHOULDN/T MIX OUT THE
DEWPOINTS AS READILY AS WE DID ON TUESDAY. THE SURFACE HIGH HAS
SHIFTED OFF TO THE EAST...SO WE/LL GET INTO A BIT MORE OF A RETURN
FLOW...BUT IT/S MOSTLY EASTERLY.  STILL...DEWPOINTS WILL BE A BIT
MORE ELEVATED THAN YESTERDAY. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING ACROSS
THE REGION AS A MID LEVEL TROF MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. IT/S A
DECENT SHORT WAVE...BUT GIVEN HOW DRY THE LOWER HALF OF THE TROP
IS...NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED.  THE ONE POSSIBLE CAVEAT IS THE FAR
SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT...TOWARD SUNRISE. THE MODELS SHOW DEEPER
MOISTURE SNEAKING UP ACROSS EASTERN IL INTO LOWER MICHIGAN. A STRAY
SHOWER COULD CLIP THE FAR SOUTHEAST...WORTHY OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
SHOWER ACROSS KENOSHA/RACINE COUNTIES

TEMPS TODAY WILL BE A NOTCH LOWER THAN YESTERDAY GIVEN THE STRONGER
EASTERLY FLOW AND THE COOLING INFLUENCE OF LAKE MICHIGAN. THAT MEANS
FOLKS NEAR THE LAKE WILL FEEL ESPECIALLY COOL TODAY.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

DRY AIR AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE SOUTHERN
WI THROUGH THU NIGHT. A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TRACKING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES WILL HAVE SOME RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER IN SOUTHERN WI
DURING THE MORNING HOURS.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE WEAK ACROSS THE AREA ON THU... SO
EXPECT A LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP AND PUSH INLAND LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. INLAND HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S WITH A FEW
LOCATIONS MAYBE REACHING 70 IN THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA WITH SKIES
CLEARING OUT AND LIGHT WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON. DEWPOINT
TEMPERATURES WILL IN THE 30S WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES ON THE LOW SIDE
ONCE AGAIN... ALTHOUGH NOT QUITE AS LOW AS TUE AND WED THIS WEEK.

LONG TERM...

FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

A SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO SOUTHERN WI FRI AFTERNOON
OR MAYBE THE EVENING. THE NAM IS THE ONLY MODEL PRODUCING QPF BUT
OTHER MODELS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES.

OTHERWISE... PLAN ON HIGHS REACHING INTO THE LOWER 70S INLAND AND
60S NEAR THE SHORELINE AHEAD OF THAT SURFACE TROUGH. WINDS WILL BE
FAIRLY LIGHT SO OVERALL IT WILL BE A NICE DAY.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

SATURDAY WILL BE COOLER WITH AN INCREASING NORTHEAST BREEZE DURING
THE AFTERNOON. PLENTY OF DRY AIR WITH THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL ALLOW FOR SUNSHINE.

MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT NOW WITH EJECTING THE CLOSED
UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT AND
PHASING IT WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING SOUTHERN CANADA AS IT
REACHES THE UPPER MIDWEST ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASING
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO SOUTHERN WI ON SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

THAT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST/UPPER GREAT LAKES AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
USHER COLDER AIR INTO SOUTHERN WI. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW 850MB
TEMPS DROPPING BELOW 0C BY MID WEEK.

SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW MAY PRODUCE LIGHT SHOWERS
OVER THE AREA. THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE MAY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S AND LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH INCREASING MID
TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. WINDS WILL BE STABLE OUT OF THE EAST AND A BIT
BREEZY/GUSTY DURING THE AFTERNOON...13-20KTS.

FIRE WEATHER...

ANOTHER VERY DRY DAY EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. DEWPOINTS
WILL LIKELY MIX OUT INTO THE LOWER 20S...POSSIBLY UPPER TEENS. AN
EASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP DEWPOINTS ELEVATED FOR THOSE COUNTIES
BORDERING LAKE MICHIGAN. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE MIXED OUT AREAS
WILL LIKELY DROP TO 15 TO 20 PERCENT.  WE SHOULDN/T BE QUITE AS DRY
AS YESTERDAY DUE TO MORE MOISTURE WORKING INTO THE AREA DUE TO A
RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF A RETREATING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.
THOSE EASTERLY WINDS WILL BE PUSHING 15 TO 20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON.

AFTER COORDINATION WITH THE WI DNR WE WILL BE UPGRADING THE FIRE
WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
ADDITIONALLY...WE/LL BE ADDING GREEN LAKE AND DANE COUNTIES.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ046-047-056-
     057-062-063-067.

LM...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...JTS
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DAVIS
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MRC





000
FXUS63 KMKX 151503 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1003 AM CDT WED APR 15 2015

.UPDATE...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT FOR OUR
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOWLY MOVING
EAST OF THE REGION...WHICH SHOULD STAVE OFF ANY PRECIPITATION
DURING THE DAY TODAY. DEW POINTS WILL ONCE AGAIN FALL LATER THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS DIURNAL HEATING RAMPS UP...BUT THEY
SHOULD NOT FALL QUITE AS FAR AS THEY DID TUESDAY AS RAP BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS INDICATE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING ONLY TO 850MB...NOT QUITE
AS DEEP OF MIXING AS WE SAW TUESDAY. GUSTY EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS
TODAY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER ALONG THE LAKE MI SHORE
COMPARED TO FURTHER INLAND...WITH HIGHS NEAR THE LAKE SHORE IN THE
UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S
FURTHER INLAND.

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE TAF SITES...ALTHOUGH WINDS
WILL BE GUSTY FROM THE EAST-SOUTHEAST...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON.
GUSTS WILL BE STRONGER FOR MSN AND UES AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
SHOULD BE TIGHTER FURTHER INLAND FROM LAKE MICHIGAN...ACCORDING
TO HIGH-RES SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE. GUSTS MAY REACH NEAR 20KTS THIS
AFTERNOON FOR MSN AND UES...WHILE ENW AND MKE WILL SEE WEAKER
WINDS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS NOT AS STRONG NEAR THE
LAKESHORE. MAINLY HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS AND STRATUS CLOUDS WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 AM CDT WED APR 15 2015/

SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS BONE DRY TODAY...BUT WE SHOULDN/T MIX OUT THE
DEWPOINTS AS READILY AS WE DID ON TUESDAY. THE SURFACE HIGH HAS
SHIFTED OFF TO THE EAST...SO WE/LL GET INTO A BIT MORE OF A RETURN
FLOW...BUT IT/S MOSTLY EASTERLY.  STILL...DEWPOINTS WILL BE A BIT
MORE ELEVATED THAN YESTERDAY. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING ACROSS
THE REGION AS A MID LEVEL TROF MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. IT/S A
DECENT SHORT WAVE...BUT GIVEN HOW DRY THE LOWER HALF OF THE TROP
IS...NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED.  THE ONE POSSIBLE CAVEAT IS THE FAR
SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT...TOWARD SUNRISE. THE MODELS SHOW DEEPER
MOISTURE SNEAKING UP ACROSS EASTERN IL INTO LOWER MICHIGAN. A STRAY
SHOWER COULD CLIP THE FAR SOUTHEAST...WORTHY OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
SHOWER ACROSS KENOSHA/RACINE COUNTIES

TEMPS TODAY WILL BE A NOTCH LOWER THAN YESTERDAY GIVEN THE STRONGER
EASTERLY FLOW AND THE COOLING INFLUENCE OF LAKE MICHIGAN. THAT MEANS
FOLKS NEAR THE LAKE WILL FEEL ESPECIALLY COOL TODAY.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

DRY AIR AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE SOUTHERN
WI THROUGH THU NIGHT. A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TRACKING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES WILL HAVE SOME RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER IN SOUTHERN WI
DURING THE MORNING HOURS.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE WEAK ACROSS THE AREA ON THU... SO
EXPECT A LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP AND PUSH INLAND LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. INLAND HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S WITH A FEW
LOCATIONS MAYBE REACHING 70 IN THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA WITH SKIES
CLEARING OUT AND LIGHT WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON. DEWPOINT
TEMPERATURES WILL IN THE 30S WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES ON THE LOW SIDE
ONCE AGAIN... ALTHOUGH NOT QUITE AS LOW AS TUE AND WED THIS WEEK.

LONG TERM...

FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

A SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO SOUTHERN WI FRI AFTERNOON
OR MAYBE THE EVENING. THE NAM IS THE ONLY MODEL PRODUCING QPF BUT
OTHER MODELS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES.

OTHERWISE... PLAN ON HIGHS REACHING INTO THE LOWER 70S INLAND AND
60S NEAR THE SHORELINE AHEAD OF THAT SURFACE TROUGH. WINDS WILL BE
FAIRLY LIGHT SO OVERALL IT WILL BE A NICE DAY.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

SATURDAY WILL BE COOLER WITH AN INCREASING NORTHEAST BREEZE DURING
THE AFTERNOON. PLENTY OF DRY AIR WITH THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL ALLOW FOR SUNSHINE.

MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT NOW WITH EJECTING THE CLOSED
UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT AND
PHASING IT WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING SOUTHERN CANADA AS IT
REACHES THE UPPER MIDWEST ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASING
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO SOUTHERN WI ON SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

THAT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST/UPPER GREAT LAKES AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
USHER COLDER AIR INTO SOUTHERN WI. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW 850MB
TEMPS DROPPING BELOW 0C BY MID WEEK.

SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW MAY PRODUCE LIGHT SHOWERS
OVER THE AREA. THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE MAY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S AND LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH INCREASING MID
TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. WINDS WILL BE STABLE OUT OF THE EAST AND A BIT
BREEZY/GUSTY DURING THE AFTERNOON...13-20KTS.

FIRE WEATHER...

ANOTHER VERY DRY DAY EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. DEWPOINTS
WILL LIKELY MIX OUT INTO THE LOWER 20S...POSSIBLY UPPER TEENS. AN
EASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP DEWPOINTS ELEVATED FOR THOSE COUNTIES
BORDERING LAKE MICHIGAN. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE MIXED OUT AREAS
WILL LIKELY DROP TO 15 TO 20 PERCENT.  WE SHOULDN/T BE QUITE AS DRY
AS YESTERDAY DUE TO MORE MOISTURE WORKING INTO THE AREA DUE TO A
RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF A RETREATING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.
THOSE EASTERLY WINDS WILL BE PUSHING 15 TO 20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON.

AFTER COORDINATION WITH THE WI DNR WE WILL BE UPGRADING THE FIRE
WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
ADDITIONALLY...WE/LL BE ADDING GREEN LAKE AND DANE COUNTIES.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ046-047-056-
     057-062-063-067.

LM...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...JTS
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DAVIS
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MRC




000
FXUS63 KMKX 151500
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1000 AM CDT WED APR 15 2015

.UPDATE...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT FOR OUR
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOWLY MOVING
EAST OF THE REGION...WHICH SHOULD STAVE OFF ANY PRECIPITATION
DURING THE DAY TODAY. DEW POINTS WILL ONCE AGAIN FALL LATER THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS DIURNAL HEATING RAMPS UP...BUT THEY
SHOULD NOT FALL QUITE AS FAR AS THEY DID TUESDAY AS RAP BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS INDICATE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING ONLY TO 850MB...NOT QUITE
AS DEEP OF MIXING AS WE SAW TUESDAY. GUSTY EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS
TODAY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER ALONG THE LAKE MI SHORE
COMPARED TO FURTHER INLAND...WITH HIGHS NEAR THE LAKE SHORE IN THE
UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S
FURTHER INLAND.


&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE TAF SITES...ALTHOUGH WINDS
WILL BE GUSTY FROM THE EAST-SOUTHEAST...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON.
GUSTS WILL BE STRONGER FOR MSN AND UES AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
SHOULD BE TIGHTER FURTHER INLAND FROM LAKE MICHIGAN...ACCORDING
TO HIGH-RES SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE. GUSTS MAY REACH NEAR 20KTS THIS
AFTERNOON FOR MSN AND UES...WHILE ENW AND MKE WILL SEE WEAKER
WINDS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS NOT AS STRONG NEAR THE
LAKESHORE. MAINLY HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS AND STRATUS CLOUDS WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 AM CDT WED APR 15 2015/

SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS BONE DRY TODAY...BUT WE SHOULDN/T MIX OUT THE
DEWPOINTS AS READILY AS WE DID ON TUESDAY. THE SURFACE HIGH HAS
SHIFTED OFF TO THE EAST...SO WE/LL GET INTO A BIT MORE OF A RETURN
FLOW...BUT IT/S MOSTLY EASTERLY.  STILL...DEWPOINTS WILL BE A BIT
MORE ELEVATED THAN YESTERDAY. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING ACROSS
THE REGION AS A MID LEVEL TROF MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. IT/S A
DECENT SHORT WAVE...BUT GIVEN HOW DRY THE LOWER HALF OF THE TROP
IS...NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED.  THE ONE POSSIBLE CAVEAT IS THE FAR
SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT...TOWARD SUNRISE. THE MODELS SHOW DEEPER
MOISTURE SNEAKING UP ACROSS EASTERN IL INTO LOWER MICHIGAN. A STRAY
SHOWER COULD CLIP THE FAR SOUTHEAST...WORTHY OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
SHOWER ACROSS KENOSHA/RACINE COUNTIES

TEMPS TODAY WILL BE A NOTCH LOWER THAN YESTERDAY GIVEN THE STRONGER
EASTERLY FLOW AND THE COOLING INFLUENCE OF LAKE MICHIGAN. THAT MEANS
FOLKS NEAR THE LAKE WILL FEEL ESPECIALLY COOL TODAY.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

DRY AIR AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE SOUTHERN
WI THROUGH THU NIGHT. A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TRACKING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES WILL HAVE SOME RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER IN SOUTHERN WI
DURING THE MORNING HOURS.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE WEAK ACROSS THE AREA ON THU... SO
EXPECT A LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP AND PUSH INLAND LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. INLAND HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S WITH A FEW
LOCATIONS MAYBE REACHING 70 IN THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA WITH SKIES
CLEARING OUT AND LIGHT WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON. DEWPOINT
TEMPERATURES WILL IN THE 30S WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES ON THE LOW SIDE
ONCE AGAIN... ALTHOUGH NOT QUITE AS LOW AS TUE AND WED THIS WEEK.

LONG TERM...

FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

A SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO SOUTHERN WI FRI AFTERNOON
OR MAYBE THE EVENING. THE NAM IS THE ONLY MODEL PRODUCING QPF BUT
OTHER MODELS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES.

OTHERWISE... PLAN ON HIGHS REACHING INTO THE LOWER 70S INLAND AND
60S NEAR THE SHORELINE AHEAD OF THAT SURFACE TROUGH. WINDS WILL BE
FAIRLY LIGHT SO OVERALL IT WILL BE A NICE DAY.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

SATURDAY WILL BE COOLER WITH AN INCREASING NORTHEAST BREEZE DURING
THE AFTERNOON. PLENTY OF DRY AIR WITH THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL ALLOW FOR SUNSHINE.

MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT NOW WITH EJECTING THE CLOSED
UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT AND
PHASING IT WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING SOUTHERN CANADA AS IT
REACHES THE UPPER MIDWEST ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASING
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO SOUTHERN WI ON SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

THAT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST/UPPER GREAT LAKES AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
USHER COLDER AIR INTO SOUTHERN WI. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW 850MB
TEMPS DROPPING BELOW 0C BY MID WEEK.

SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW MAY PRODUCE LIGHT SHOWERS
OVER THE AREA. THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE MAY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S AND LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH INCREASING MID
TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. WINDS WILL BE STABLE OUT OF THE EAST AND A BIT
BREEZY/GUSTY DURING THE AFTERNOON...13-20KTS.

FIRE WEATHER...

ANOTHER VERY DRY DAY EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. DEWPOINTS
WILL LIKELY MIX OUT INTO THE LOWER 20S...POSSIBLY UPPER TEENS. AN
EASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP DEWPOINTS ELEVATED FOR THOSE COUNTIES
BORDERING LAKE MICHIGAN. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE MIXED OUT AREAS
WILL LIKELY DROP TO 15 TO 20 PERCENT.  WE SHOULDN/T BE QUITE AS DRY
AS YESTERDAY DUE TO MORE MOISTURE WORKING INTO THE AREA DUE TO A
RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF A RETREATING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.
THOSE EASTERLY WINDS WILL BE PUSHING 15 TO 20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON.

AFTER COORDINATION WITH THE WI DNR WE WILL BE UPGRADING THE FIRE
WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
ADDITIONALLY...WE/LL BE ADDING GREEN LAKE AND DANE COUNTIES.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     WIZ046-047-056-057-062-063-067.

LM...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...JTS
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DAVIS
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MRC




    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities