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000
FXUS63 KMKX 281530
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1030 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...DELAYED POPS A SMIDGE TODAY ESP ACRS ERN SECTIONS. MODELS
TRENDING SLOWER WITH ARRIVING RAINFALL. MUCH OF LEADING RETURNS
EVAPORATING OR RESULTING IN JUST SPRINKLES ACRS SC WI. AS LLJ
TRANSLATES EAST AND IOWA MID LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES AND MOVES
THROUGH AREA TONIGHT INTO AT LEAST SATURDAY MORNING...SHOULD SEE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS SRN WI. SO HIGH POPS CONTINUE.

PC

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...MID/HIGH CLOUDS THICKENING ACRS SRN WI THIS
AFTN. RAIN WILL SLOWLY WORK INTO SC WI WITH EASTWARD TRANSLATION
OF LLJ AND APPCH MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE FROM IA. CONSSHORT CIG AND
SREF CIG/VIS PROBS SHOW MVFR/IFR CIGS WORKING INTO SC WI LATER
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF IFR CIGS
IN SC WI THAN SE. HOWEVER LLVL RH PROGS AND MET MOS SUGGEST
CAUTION WITH IFR CIGS ALL THE WAY ACROSS WITH THE STEADIER RAINS
LINGERING FOR AT LEAST SATURDAY MORNING PER 12Z GUID.

PC

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

A WEAK 250 MB SHORTWAVE EXITING THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL REACH
WESTERN WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT.  SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WILL BECOME
LOCATED IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 65 KNOT SPEED MAX ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES.  AS A RESULT UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE INCREASES
THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON...BEFORE WEAKENING
TONIGHT.

SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BECOMES LOCATED IN THE EXIT REGION OF A 45 KNOT
700 MB SPEED MAX AND 30 KNOT 850 MB MAX. THIS RESULTS IN RATHER
STRONG MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AT 700 MB AND MODERATE MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AT 850 MB. AS A RESULT OF THIS AND THE UPPER DIVERGENCE
700 MB UPWARD MOTION INCREASES TODAY AND BECOMES MODERATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

700 MB RH INCREASES TODAY AND SATURATES OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN
BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND ACROSS ALL OF THE SOUTH THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT. 850 MB LAYERS ARE A LITTLE SLOWER TO SATURATE.

PRECIPITATION TIMING ON THE NAM AND GFS DIFFER SOMEWHAT WITH THE
SLOWER 4 KM MESO MODELS.  PREFER THE SOMEWHAT SLOWER MESO MODELS.

LIMITED ELEVATED CAPE...SO WILL SLOWLY SPREAD ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
MENTION.

THE MESO MODELS ARE A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH WITH THE HIGH QPF. WILL
GO CLOSE WITH THE CONSENSUS QPF VALUES...MODIFIED A LITTLE FOR
COLLABORATION.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO PASS NEAR OR JUST TO THE SOUTH
OF THE WI/IL BORDER ON SATURDAY AS A TROUGH DROPS SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE AREA. GIVEN THE PLACEMENT OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND
SURFACE LOW AT DAYBREAK SATURDAY...BUMPED POPS UP A
BIT...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST. LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO
KEEP CHANCE OF THUNDER GOING. THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL WIND
DOWN DURING THE MORNING HOURS...THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS MAY
LINGER MAINLY IN THE EAST IN THE AFTERNOON. KEPT TEMPS TOWARD RAW
2 METER MODEL TEMPS GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS/PRECIP.

SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW QUICK THE SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD BY
SUNDAY. ECMWF IS A BIT SLOWER...KEEPING CYCLONIC FLOW OVER
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. WOULD DEFINITELY SEE MORE CLOUDS AND COOLER
TEMPS THAN CURRENTLY IN FORECAST WITH THE ECMWF SOLUTION. OTHER
MODELS ARE QUICKER TO MOVE UPPER RIDGING. EITHER WAY...TEMPS
SHOULD BE AT LEAST A LITTLE WARMER THAN SATURDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO GENERALLY
REMAIN PARKED OVER THE CENTRAL OR EASTERN GREAT LAKES FOR MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK. THIS SETUP SHOULD PUT SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN IN A PERSISTENT MILD SOUTHERLY FLOW. MODELS ARE SHOWING
A WEAK WAVE OR TWO COULD BRING A FEW STORMS AT SOME POINT NEXT
WEEK...BUT NOT ENOUGH AGREEMENT AMONG THE VARIOUS SOLUTIONS FOR
POPS AT THIS POINT. MAIN STORY WILL BE TEMPS WARMING ABOVE NORMAL
VALUES...POSSIBLY PUSHING 90 BY MID OR LATE WEEK VIA THE WARMER
MODEL SOLUTIONS.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...AS CLOUDS THICKEN
AND LOWER.  EXPECT RAIN CHANCES TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST TODAY
WITH RAIN EXPECTED TONIGHT.  CIGS WILL SLOWLY LOWER TO MVFR IN THE
PRECIPITATION TODAY SOUTH CENTRAL AND LOWER TO IFR ACROSS SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN TONIGHT.  LIMITED INSTABILITY WITH ISOLATED EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ALSO SPREADING SLOWLY FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.


MARINE...

RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE WATERS
THIS AFTERNOON AND OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES
INTO IOWA FROM THE WEST TONIGHT.  EAST WINDS WILL INCREASE...BUT
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...DDV




000
FXUS63 KMKX 281530
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1030 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...DELAYED POPS A SMIDGE TODAY ESP ACRS ERN SECTIONS. MODELS
TRENDING SLOWER WITH ARRIVING RAINFALL. MUCH OF LEADING RETURNS
EVAPORATING OR RESULTING IN JUST SPRINKLES ACRS SC WI. AS LLJ
TRANSLATES EAST AND IOWA MID LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES AND MOVES
THROUGH AREA TONIGHT INTO AT LEAST SATURDAY MORNING...SHOULD SEE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS SRN WI. SO HIGH POPS CONTINUE.

PC

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...MID/HIGH CLOUDS THICKENING ACRS SRN WI THIS
AFTN. RAIN WILL SLOWLY WORK INTO SC WI WITH EASTWARD TRANSLATION
OF LLJ AND APPCH MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE FROM IA. CONSSHORT CIG AND
SREF CIG/VIS PROBS SHOW MVFR/IFR CIGS WORKING INTO SC WI LATER
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF IFR CIGS
IN SC WI THAN SE. HOWEVER LLVL RH PROGS AND MET MOS SUGGEST
CAUTION WITH IFR CIGS ALL THE WAY ACROSS WITH THE STEADIER RAINS
LINGERING FOR AT LEAST SATURDAY MORNING PER 12Z GUID.

PC

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

A WEAK 250 MB SHORTWAVE EXITING THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL REACH
WESTERN WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT.  SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WILL BECOME
LOCATED IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 65 KNOT SPEED MAX ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES.  AS A RESULT UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE INCREASES
THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON...BEFORE WEAKENING
TONIGHT.

SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BECOMES LOCATED IN THE EXIT REGION OF A 45 KNOT
700 MB SPEED MAX AND 30 KNOT 850 MB MAX. THIS RESULTS IN RATHER
STRONG MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AT 700 MB AND MODERATE MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AT 850 MB. AS A RESULT OF THIS AND THE UPPER DIVERGENCE
700 MB UPWARD MOTION INCREASES TODAY AND BECOMES MODERATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

700 MB RH INCREASES TODAY AND SATURATES OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN
BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND ACROSS ALL OF THE SOUTH THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT. 850 MB LAYERS ARE A LITTLE SLOWER TO SATURATE.

PRECIPITATION TIMING ON THE NAM AND GFS DIFFER SOMEWHAT WITH THE
SLOWER 4 KM MESO MODELS.  PREFER THE SOMEWHAT SLOWER MESO MODELS.

LIMITED ELEVATED CAPE...SO WILL SLOWLY SPREAD ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
MENTION.

THE MESO MODELS ARE A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH WITH THE HIGH QPF. WILL
GO CLOSE WITH THE CONSENSUS QPF VALUES...MODIFIED A LITTLE FOR
COLLABORATION.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO PASS NEAR OR JUST TO THE SOUTH
OF THE WI/IL BORDER ON SATURDAY AS A TROUGH DROPS SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE AREA. GIVEN THE PLACEMENT OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND
SURFACE LOW AT DAYBREAK SATURDAY...BUMPED POPS UP A
BIT...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST. LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO
KEEP CHANCE OF THUNDER GOING. THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL WIND
DOWN DURING THE MORNING HOURS...THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS MAY
LINGER MAINLY IN THE EAST IN THE AFTERNOON. KEPT TEMPS TOWARD RAW
2 METER MODEL TEMPS GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS/PRECIP.

SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW QUICK THE SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD BY
SUNDAY. ECMWF IS A BIT SLOWER...KEEPING CYCLONIC FLOW OVER
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. WOULD DEFINITELY SEE MORE CLOUDS AND COOLER
TEMPS THAN CURRENTLY IN FORECAST WITH THE ECMWF SOLUTION. OTHER
MODELS ARE QUICKER TO MOVE UPPER RIDGING. EITHER WAY...TEMPS
SHOULD BE AT LEAST A LITTLE WARMER THAN SATURDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO GENERALLY
REMAIN PARKED OVER THE CENTRAL OR EASTERN GREAT LAKES FOR MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK. THIS SETUP SHOULD PUT SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN IN A PERSISTENT MILD SOUTHERLY FLOW. MODELS ARE SHOWING
A WEAK WAVE OR TWO COULD BRING A FEW STORMS AT SOME POINT NEXT
WEEK...BUT NOT ENOUGH AGREEMENT AMONG THE VARIOUS SOLUTIONS FOR
POPS AT THIS POINT. MAIN STORY WILL BE TEMPS WARMING ABOVE NORMAL
VALUES...POSSIBLY PUSHING 90 BY MID OR LATE WEEK VIA THE WARMER
MODEL SOLUTIONS.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...AS CLOUDS THICKEN
AND LOWER.  EXPECT RAIN CHANCES TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST TODAY
WITH RAIN EXPECTED TONIGHT.  CIGS WILL SLOWLY LOWER TO MVFR IN THE
PRECIPITATION TODAY SOUTH CENTRAL AND LOWER TO IFR ACROSS SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN TONIGHT.  LIMITED INSTABILITY WITH ISOLATED EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ALSO SPREADING SLOWLY FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.


MARINE...

RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE WATERS
THIS AFTERNOON AND OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES
INTO IOWA FROM THE WEST TONIGHT.  EAST WINDS WILL INCREASE...BUT
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...DDV





000
FXUS63 KMKX 280828
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
328 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

A WEAK 250 MB SHORTWAVE EXITING THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL REACH
WESTERN WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT.  SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WILL BECOME
LOCATED IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 65 KNOT SPEED MAX ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES.  AS A RESULT UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE INCREASES
THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON...BEFORE WEAKENING
TONIGHT.

SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BECOMES LOCATED IN THE EXIT REGION OF A 45 KNOT
700 MB SPEED MAX AND 30 KNOT 850 MB MAX. THIS RESULTS IN RATHER
STRONG MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AT 700 MB AND MODERATE MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AT 850 MB. AS A RESULT OF THIS AND THE UPPER DIVERGENCE
700 MB UPWARD MOTION INCREASES TODAY AND BECOMES MODERATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

700 MB RH INCREASES TODAY AND SATURATES OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN
BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND ACROSS ALL OF THE SOUTH THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT. 850 MB LAYERS ARE A LITTLE SLOWER TO SATURATE.

PRECIPITATION TIMING ON THE NAM AND GFS DIFFER SOMEWHAT WITH THE
SLOWER 4 KM MESO MODELS.  PREFER THE SOMEWHAT SLOWER MESO MODELS.

LIMITED ELEVATED CAPE...SO WILL SLOWLY SPREAD ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
MENTION.

THE MESO MODELS ARE A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH WITH THE HIGH QPF. WILL
GO CLOSE WITH THE CONSENSUS QPF VALUES...MODIFIED A LITTLE FOR
COLLABORATION.

.SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO PASS NEAR OR JUST TO THE SOUTH
OF THE WI/IL BORDER ON SATURDAY AS A TROUGH DROPS SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE AREA. GIVEN THE PLACEMENT OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND
SURFACE LOW AT DAYBREAK SATURDAY...BUMPED POPS UP A
BIT...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST. LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO
KEEP CHANCE OF THUNDER GOING. THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL WIND
DOWN DURING THE MORNING HOURS...THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS MAY
LINGER MAINLY IN THE EAST IN THE AFTERNOON. KEPT TEMPS TOWARD RAW
2 METER MODEL TEMPS GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS/PRECIP.

SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW QUICK THE SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD BY
SUNDAY. ECMWF IS A BIT SLOWER...KEEPING CYCLONIC FLOW OVER
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. WOULD DEFINITELY SEE MORE CLOUDS AND COOLER
TEMPS THAN CURRENTLY IN FORECAST WITH THE ECMWF SOLUTION. OTHER
MODELS ARE QUICKER TO MOVE UPPER RIDGING. EITHER WAY...TEMPS
SHOULD BE AT LEAST A LITTLE WARMER THAN SATURDAY.

.MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO GENERALLY
REMAIN PARKED OVER THE CENTRAL OR EASTERN GREAT LAKES FOR MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK. THIS SETUP SHOULD PUT SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN IN A PERSISTENT MILD SOUTHERLY FLOW. MODELS ARE SHOWING
A WEAK WAVE OR TWO COULD BRING A FEW STORMS AT SOME POINT NEXT
WEEK...BUT NOT ENOUGH AGREEMENT AMONG THE VARIOUS SOLUTIONS FOR
POPS AT THIS POINT. MAIN STORY WILL BE TEMPS WARMING ABOVE NORMAL
VALUES...POSSIBLY PUSHING 90 BY MID OR LATE WEEK VIA THE WARMER
MODEL SOLUTIONS.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...AS CLOUDS THICKEN
AND LOWER.  EXPECT RAIN CHANCES TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST TODAY
WITH RAIN EXPECTED TONIGHT.  CIGS WILL SLOWLY LOWER TO MVFR IN THE
PRECIPITATION TODAY SOUTH CENTRAL AND LOWER TO IFR ACROSS SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN TONIGHT.  LIMITED INSTABILITY WITH ISOLATED EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ALSO SPREADING SLOWLY FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...

RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE WATERS
THIS AFTERNOON AND OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES
INTO IOWA FROM THE WEST TONIGHT.  EAST WINDS WILL INCREASE...BUT
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.


&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...DDV




000
FXUS63 KMKX 280828
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
328 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

A WEAK 250 MB SHORTWAVE EXITING THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL REACH
WESTERN WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT.  SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WILL BECOME
LOCATED IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 65 KNOT SPEED MAX ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES.  AS A RESULT UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE INCREASES
THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON...BEFORE WEAKENING
TONIGHT.

SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BECOMES LOCATED IN THE EXIT REGION OF A 45 KNOT
700 MB SPEED MAX AND 30 KNOT 850 MB MAX. THIS RESULTS IN RATHER
STRONG MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AT 700 MB AND MODERATE MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AT 850 MB. AS A RESULT OF THIS AND THE UPPER DIVERGENCE
700 MB UPWARD MOTION INCREASES TODAY AND BECOMES MODERATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

700 MB RH INCREASES TODAY AND SATURATES OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN
BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND ACROSS ALL OF THE SOUTH THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT. 850 MB LAYERS ARE A LITTLE SLOWER TO SATURATE.

PRECIPITATION TIMING ON THE NAM AND GFS DIFFER SOMEWHAT WITH THE
SLOWER 4 KM MESO MODELS.  PREFER THE SOMEWHAT SLOWER MESO MODELS.

LIMITED ELEVATED CAPE...SO WILL SLOWLY SPREAD ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
MENTION.

THE MESO MODELS ARE A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH WITH THE HIGH QPF. WILL
GO CLOSE WITH THE CONSENSUS QPF VALUES...MODIFIED A LITTLE FOR
COLLABORATION.

.SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO PASS NEAR OR JUST TO THE SOUTH
OF THE WI/IL BORDER ON SATURDAY AS A TROUGH DROPS SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE AREA. GIVEN THE PLACEMENT OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND
SURFACE LOW AT DAYBREAK SATURDAY...BUMPED POPS UP A
BIT...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST. LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO
KEEP CHANCE OF THUNDER GOING. THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL WIND
DOWN DURING THE MORNING HOURS...THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS MAY
LINGER MAINLY IN THE EAST IN THE AFTERNOON. KEPT TEMPS TOWARD RAW
2 METER MODEL TEMPS GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS/PRECIP.

SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW QUICK THE SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD BY
SUNDAY. ECMWF IS A BIT SLOWER...KEEPING CYCLONIC FLOW OVER
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. WOULD DEFINITELY SEE MORE CLOUDS AND COOLER
TEMPS THAN CURRENTLY IN FORECAST WITH THE ECMWF SOLUTION. OTHER
MODELS ARE QUICKER TO MOVE UPPER RIDGING. EITHER WAY...TEMPS
SHOULD BE AT LEAST A LITTLE WARMER THAN SATURDAY.

.MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO GENERALLY
REMAIN PARKED OVER THE CENTRAL OR EASTERN GREAT LAKES FOR MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK. THIS SETUP SHOULD PUT SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN IN A PERSISTENT MILD SOUTHERLY FLOW. MODELS ARE SHOWING
A WEAK WAVE OR TWO COULD BRING A FEW STORMS AT SOME POINT NEXT
WEEK...BUT NOT ENOUGH AGREEMENT AMONG THE VARIOUS SOLUTIONS FOR
POPS AT THIS POINT. MAIN STORY WILL BE TEMPS WARMING ABOVE NORMAL
VALUES...POSSIBLY PUSHING 90 BY MID OR LATE WEEK VIA THE WARMER
MODEL SOLUTIONS.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...AS CLOUDS THICKEN
AND LOWER.  EXPECT RAIN CHANCES TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST TODAY
WITH RAIN EXPECTED TONIGHT.  CIGS WILL SLOWLY LOWER TO MVFR IN THE
PRECIPITATION TODAY SOUTH CENTRAL AND LOWER TO IFR ACROSS SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN TONIGHT.  LIMITED INSTABILITY WITH ISOLATED EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ALSO SPREADING SLOWLY FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...

RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE WATERS
THIS AFTERNOON AND OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES
INTO IOWA FROM THE WEST TONIGHT.  EAST WINDS WILL INCREASE...BUT
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.


&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...DDV




000
FXUS63 KMKX 280828
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
328 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

A WEAK 250 MB SHORTWAVE EXITING THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL REACH
WESTERN WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT.  SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WILL BECOME
LOCATED IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 65 KNOT SPEED MAX ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES.  AS A RESULT UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE INCREASES
THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON...BEFORE WEAKENING
TONIGHT.

SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BECOMES LOCATED IN THE EXIT REGION OF A 45 KNOT
700 MB SPEED MAX AND 30 KNOT 850 MB MAX. THIS RESULTS IN RATHER
STRONG MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AT 700 MB AND MODERATE MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AT 850 MB. AS A RESULT OF THIS AND THE UPPER DIVERGENCE
700 MB UPWARD MOTION INCREASES TODAY AND BECOMES MODERATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

700 MB RH INCREASES TODAY AND SATURATES OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN
BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND ACROSS ALL OF THE SOUTH THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT. 850 MB LAYERS ARE A LITTLE SLOWER TO SATURATE.

PRECIPITATION TIMING ON THE NAM AND GFS DIFFER SOMEWHAT WITH THE
SLOWER 4 KM MESO MODELS.  PREFER THE SOMEWHAT SLOWER MESO MODELS.

LIMITED ELEVATED CAPE...SO WILL SLOWLY SPREAD ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
MENTION.

THE MESO MODELS ARE A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH WITH THE HIGH QPF. WILL
GO CLOSE WITH THE CONSENSUS QPF VALUES...MODIFIED A LITTLE FOR
COLLABORATION.

.SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO PASS NEAR OR JUST TO THE SOUTH
OF THE WI/IL BORDER ON SATURDAY AS A TROUGH DROPS SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE AREA. GIVEN THE PLACEMENT OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND
SURFACE LOW AT DAYBREAK SATURDAY...BUMPED POPS UP A
BIT...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST. LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO
KEEP CHANCE OF THUNDER GOING. THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL WIND
DOWN DURING THE MORNING HOURS...THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS MAY
LINGER MAINLY IN THE EAST IN THE AFTERNOON. KEPT TEMPS TOWARD RAW
2 METER MODEL TEMPS GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS/PRECIP.

SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW QUICK THE SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD BY
SUNDAY. ECMWF IS A BIT SLOWER...KEEPING CYCLONIC FLOW OVER
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. WOULD DEFINITELY SEE MORE CLOUDS AND COOLER
TEMPS THAN CURRENTLY IN FORECAST WITH THE ECMWF SOLUTION. OTHER
MODELS ARE QUICKER TO MOVE UPPER RIDGING. EITHER WAY...TEMPS
SHOULD BE AT LEAST A LITTLE WARMER THAN SATURDAY.

.MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO GENERALLY
REMAIN PARKED OVER THE CENTRAL OR EASTERN GREAT LAKES FOR MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK. THIS SETUP SHOULD PUT SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN IN A PERSISTENT MILD SOUTHERLY FLOW. MODELS ARE SHOWING
A WEAK WAVE OR TWO COULD BRING A FEW STORMS AT SOME POINT NEXT
WEEK...BUT NOT ENOUGH AGREEMENT AMONG THE VARIOUS SOLUTIONS FOR
POPS AT THIS POINT. MAIN STORY WILL BE TEMPS WARMING ABOVE NORMAL
VALUES...POSSIBLY PUSHING 90 BY MID OR LATE WEEK VIA THE WARMER
MODEL SOLUTIONS.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...AS CLOUDS THICKEN
AND LOWER.  EXPECT RAIN CHANCES TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST TODAY
WITH RAIN EXPECTED TONIGHT.  CIGS WILL SLOWLY LOWER TO MVFR IN THE
PRECIPITATION TODAY SOUTH CENTRAL AND LOWER TO IFR ACROSS SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN TONIGHT.  LIMITED INSTABILITY WITH ISOLATED EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ALSO SPREADING SLOWLY FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...

RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE WATERS
THIS AFTERNOON AND OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES
INTO IOWA FROM THE WEST TONIGHT.  EAST WINDS WILL INCREASE...BUT
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.


&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...DDV





000
FXUS63 KMKX 280203 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
903 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...

WATCHING BANDS OF ACCAS SHOWERS OFF TO THE WEST ON EASTERN EDGE OF
BETTER 850 MB WARM ADVECTION. HI-RES/RAPID UPDATE MODELS KEEP
MAJORITY OF PCPN BACK TO THE WEST WITH BEST FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH FOCUSED WARM ADVECTION ON INCREASING LOW-LEVEL JET AHEAD OF
DEEPENING LOW THAT POINTS INTO N CENTRAL IOWA/SRN MINNESOTA
OVERNIGHT. THEY DO INDICATE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES MIGHT SEE AN
ISOLATED SPRINKLE AFTER 06Z...BUT DRY LAYER BETWEEN 900 MB AND 750
MB WOULD HAVE TO SATURATE BEFORE ANYTHING WOULD REACH THE GROUND.
CURRENT FORECAST AS A GOOD HANDLE ON CHANCES FOR PCPN MOVING IN
AROUND/AFTER 10Z.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...THOUGH SOME
PATCHY GROUND FOG POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST WHERE CLOUD
BLANKET WILL BE THINNER. WARM...MOIST AIRMASS ADVECTS IN AHEAD OF
SURFACE LOW THAT WILL DROP CIGS TO MVFR LEVELS BY MIDDAY IN THE
WEST...AND LATE AFTERNOON IN THE EAST. SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE
FAR SOUTHEAST MAY REMAIN AT VFR LEVELS UNTIL SHOWERS MOVE IN THAT
WILL DROP BOTH CIGS AND VSBYS TO MVFR LEVELS IN THE EVENING. LOW-
LEVEL JET MOVING INTO THE REGION AFTER 00Z BRINGS SURFACE TO 2K
FT WIND DIFFERENCES CLOSE TO BUT NOT QUITE TO LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR
CRITERIA. WILL TAKE A LOOK AT FULL 00Z DATA SET BUT PLAN IS TO
LEAVE OUT FOR NOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/

SHORT TERM...

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

TONIGHT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS
OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. CUMULUS CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AS CIRRUS
CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. EXPECT LOWS AROUND 60. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASE OVERNIGHT BUT CIRRUS OVERHEAD SHOULD PREVENT ANY
FOG.

ON FRIDAY STRONG MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN WI AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS IOWA.
STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE ALSO MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN WI DURING THIS
TIME. ECMWF LAGS BEHIND WITH THESE FEATURES AND IS SLOWER TO BRING
PRECIP TO SOUTHEAST WI. HAVE POPS WORKING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
PART OF THE CWA DURING THE LATE MORNING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION RAMPS UP IN SOUTHWEST
/SOUTH-CENTRAL WI DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE LATEST MESO MODELS
HAVE SHIFTED THE GREATEST PRECIP ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA. KEPT A CHANCE OF THUNDER GOING WITH CAPE UP TO 100 J/KG AT
BEST.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH.

A SLOW MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WEAKENING SFC TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS SRN WI LATE FRI NT AND SAT BUT LINGER SAT NT AS IT GETS
REINFORCED FROM ANOTHER VORTICITY MAXIMUM DROPPING SEWD FROM
ONTARIO CANADA. A SLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL ACCOMPANY THESE FEATURES
AND PRODUCE WELL ORGANIZED LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM...MOIST ADVECTION
AND FRONTOGENESIS FOR FRI AFT AND NIGHT. PWS WILL RISE TO
1.60-1.70 INCHES WITH A MOIST ADIABATIC ATM EXPECTED. THUS MDT TO
HEAVY RAINFALL RATES WILL OCCUR AT TIMES FRI AFT AND NIGHT. TOTAL
RAINFALL OF 1.00-1.50 INCHES IS FORECAST WITH THE LESSER AMOUNTS
OVER FAR SE WI. THE LLJ AND STRONGER FORCING WILL HAVE MOVED EAST
BY SAT BUT THE TROUGH PASSAGE WILL MAINTAIN CLOUDY SKIES AND
SHOWERY CONDITIONS. THE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LINGER FOR MUCH OF SAT
NT AND INTO THE MORNING ON SUN OVER ERN WI. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SLOWLY BUILD ACROSS SRN WI ON SUN WITH A RETURN OF SOME SUNSHINE
AND WARMING TEMPS.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

A VERY WARM AND HUMID WEEK IS EXPECTED AS A LARGE UPPER RIDGE
FORMS OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN USA WITH A POLAR TROUGH
OVER WRN CANADA AND THE PACIFIC NW. NO PCPN IS FORECAST.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. HIGH TO MID CIRRUS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST BECOMING OVERCAST OVERNIGHT.
PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE LATE FRIDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON IN
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND FRIDAY EVENING IN THE SOUTHEAST. IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE WITH THE RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...REM
TONIGHT/FRIDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MARQUARDT
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...GEHRING





000
FXUS63 KMKX 280203 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
903 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...

WATCHING BANDS OF ACCAS SHOWERS OFF TO THE WEST ON EASTERN EDGE OF
BETTER 850 MB WARM ADVECTION. HI-RES/RAPID UPDATE MODELS KEEP
MAJORITY OF PCPN BACK TO THE WEST WITH BEST FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH FOCUSED WARM ADVECTION ON INCREASING LOW-LEVEL JET AHEAD OF
DEEPENING LOW THAT POINTS INTO N CENTRAL IOWA/SRN MINNESOTA
OVERNIGHT. THEY DO INDICATE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES MIGHT SEE AN
ISOLATED SPRINKLE AFTER 06Z...BUT DRY LAYER BETWEEN 900 MB AND 750
MB WOULD HAVE TO SATURATE BEFORE ANYTHING WOULD REACH THE GROUND.
CURRENT FORECAST AS A GOOD HANDLE ON CHANCES FOR PCPN MOVING IN
AROUND/AFTER 10Z.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...THOUGH SOME
PATCHY GROUND FOG POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST WHERE CLOUD
BLANKET WILL BE THINNER. WARM...MOIST AIRMASS ADVECTS IN AHEAD OF
SURFACE LOW THAT WILL DROP CIGS TO MVFR LEVELS BY MIDDAY IN THE
WEST...AND LATE AFTERNOON IN THE EAST. SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE
FAR SOUTHEAST MAY REMAIN AT VFR LEVELS UNTIL SHOWERS MOVE IN THAT
WILL DROP BOTH CIGS AND VSBYS TO MVFR LEVELS IN THE EVENING. LOW-
LEVEL JET MOVING INTO THE REGION AFTER 00Z BRINGS SURFACE TO 2K
FT WIND DIFFERENCES CLOSE TO BUT NOT QUITE TO LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR
CRITERIA. WILL TAKE A LOOK AT FULL 00Z DATA SET BUT PLAN IS TO
LEAVE OUT FOR NOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/

SHORT TERM...

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

TONIGHT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS
OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. CUMULUS CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AS CIRRUS
CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. EXPECT LOWS AROUND 60. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASE OVERNIGHT BUT CIRRUS OVERHEAD SHOULD PREVENT ANY
FOG.

ON FRIDAY STRONG MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN WI AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS IOWA.
STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE ALSO MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN WI DURING THIS
TIME. ECMWF LAGS BEHIND WITH THESE FEATURES AND IS SLOWER TO BRING
PRECIP TO SOUTHEAST WI. HAVE POPS WORKING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
PART OF THE CWA DURING THE LATE MORNING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION RAMPS UP IN SOUTHWEST
/SOUTH-CENTRAL WI DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE LATEST MESO MODELS
HAVE SHIFTED THE GREATEST PRECIP ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA. KEPT A CHANCE OF THUNDER GOING WITH CAPE UP TO 100 J/KG AT
BEST.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH.

A SLOW MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WEAKENING SFC TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS SRN WI LATE FRI NT AND SAT BUT LINGER SAT NT AS IT GETS
REINFORCED FROM ANOTHER VORTICITY MAXIMUM DROPPING SEWD FROM
ONTARIO CANADA. A SLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL ACCOMPANY THESE FEATURES
AND PRODUCE WELL ORGANIZED LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM...MOIST ADVECTION
AND FRONTOGENESIS FOR FRI AFT AND NIGHT. PWS WILL RISE TO
1.60-1.70 INCHES WITH A MOIST ADIABATIC ATM EXPECTED. THUS MDT TO
HEAVY RAINFALL RATES WILL OCCUR AT TIMES FRI AFT AND NIGHT. TOTAL
RAINFALL OF 1.00-1.50 INCHES IS FORECAST WITH THE LESSER AMOUNTS
OVER FAR SE WI. THE LLJ AND STRONGER FORCING WILL HAVE MOVED EAST
BY SAT BUT THE TROUGH PASSAGE WILL MAINTAIN CLOUDY SKIES AND
SHOWERY CONDITIONS. THE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LINGER FOR MUCH OF SAT
NT AND INTO THE MORNING ON SUN OVER ERN WI. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SLOWLY BUILD ACROSS SRN WI ON SUN WITH A RETURN OF SOME SUNSHINE
AND WARMING TEMPS.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

A VERY WARM AND HUMID WEEK IS EXPECTED AS A LARGE UPPER RIDGE
FORMS OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN USA WITH A POLAR TROUGH
OVER WRN CANADA AND THE PACIFIC NW. NO PCPN IS FORECAST.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. HIGH TO MID CIRRUS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST BECOMING OVERCAST OVERNIGHT.
PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE LATE FRIDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON IN
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND FRIDAY EVENING IN THE SOUTHEAST. IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE WITH THE RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...REM
TONIGHT/FRIDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MARQUARDT
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...GEHRING




000
FXUS63 KMKX 280203 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
903 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...

WATCHING BANDS OF ACCAS SHOWERS OFF TO THE WEST ON EASTERN EDGE OF
BETTER 850 MB WARM ADVECTION. HI-RES/RAPID UPDATE MODELS KEEP
MAJORITY OF PCPN BACK TO THE WEST WITH BEST FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH FOCUSED WARM ADVECTION ON INCREASING LOW-LEVEL JET AHEAD OF
DEEPENING LOW THAT POINTS INTO N CENTRAL IOWA/SRN MINNESOTA
OVERNIGHT. THEY DO INDICATE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES MIGHT SEE AN
ISOLATED SPRINKLE AFTER 06Z...BUT DRY LAYER BETWEEN 900 MB AND 750
MB WOULD HAVE TO SATURATE BEFORE ANYTHING WOULD REACH THE GROUND.
CURRENT FORECAST AS A GOOD HANDLE ON CHANCES FOR PCPN MOVING IN
AROUND/AFTER 10Z.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...THOUGH SOME
PATCHY GROUND FOG POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST WHERE CLOUD
BLANKET WILL BE THINNER. WARM...MOIST AIRMASS ADVECTS IN AHEAD OF
SURFACE LOW THAT WILL DROP CIGS TO MVFR LEVELS BY MIDDAY IN THE
WEST...AND LATE AFTERNOON IN THE EAST. SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE
FAR SOUTHEAST MAY REMAIN AT VFR LEVELS UNTIL SHOWERS MOVE IN THAT
WILL DROP BOTH CIGS AND VSBYS TO MVFR LEVELS IN THE EVENING. LOW-
LEVEL JET MOVING INTO THE REGION AFTER 00Z BRINGS SURFACE TO 2K
FT WIND DIFFERENCES CLOSE TO BUT NOT QUITE TO LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR
CRITERIA. WILL TAKE A LOOK AT FULL 00Z DATA SET BUT PLAN IS TO
LEAVE OUT FOR NOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/

SHORT TERM...

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

TONIGHT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS
OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. CUMULUS CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AS CIRRUS
CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. EXPECT LOWS AROUND 60. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASE OVERNIGHT BUT CIRRUS OVERHEAD SHOULD PREVENT ANY
FOG.

ON FRIDAY STRONG MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN WI AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS IOWA.
STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE ALSO MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN WI DURING THIS
TIME. ECMWF LAGS BEHIND WITH THESE FEATURES AND IS SLOWER TO BRING
PRECIP TO SOUTHEAST WI. HAVE POPS WORKING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
PART OF THE CWA DURING THE LATE MORNING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION RAMPS UP IN SOUTHWEST
/SOUTH-CENTRAL WI DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE LATEST MESO MODELS
HAVE SHIFTED THE GREATEST PRECIP ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA. KEPT A CHANCE OF THUNDER GOING WITH CAPE UP TO 100 J/KG AT
BEST.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH.

A SLOW MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WEAKENING SFC TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS SRN WI LATE FRI NT AND SAT BUT LINGER SAT NT AS IT GETS
REINFORCED FROM ANOTHER VORTICITY MAXIMUM DROPPING SEWD FROM
ONTARIO CANADA. A SLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL ACCOMPANY THESE FEATURES
AND PRODUCE WELL ORGANIZED LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM...MOIST ADVECTION
AND FRONTOGENESIS FOR FRI AFT AND NIGHT. PWS WILL RISE TO
1.60-1.70 INCHES WITH A MOIST ADIABATIC ATM EXPECTED. THUS MDT TO
HEAVY RAINFALL RATES WILL OCCUR AT TIMES FRI AFT AND NIGHT. TOTAL
RAINFALL OF 1.00-1.50 INCHES IS FORECAST WITH THE LESSER AMOUNTS
OVER FAR SE WI. THE LLJ AND STRONGER FORCING WILL HAVE MOVED EAST
BY SAT BUT THE TROUGH PASSAGE WILL MAINTAIN CLOUDY SKIES AND
SHOWERY CONDITIONS. THE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LINGER FOR MUCH OF SAT
NT AND INTO THE MORNING ON SUN OVER ERN WI. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SLOWLY BUILD ACROSS SRN WI ON SUN WITH A RETURN OF SOME SUNSHINE
AND WARMING TEMPS.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

A VERY WARM AND HUMID WEEK IS EXPECTED AS A LARGE UPPER RIDGE
FORMS OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN USA WITH A POLAR TROUGH
OVER WRN CANADA AND THE PACIFIC NW. NO PCPN IS FORECAST.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. HIGH TO MID CIRRUS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST BECOMING OVERCAST OVERNIGHT.
PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE LATE FRIDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON IN
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND FRIDAY EVENING IN THE SOUTHEAST. IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE WITH THE RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...REM
TONIGHT/FRIDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MARQUARDT
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...GEHRING





000
FXUS63 KMKX 280203 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
903 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...

WATCHING BANDS OF ACCAS SHOWERS OFF TO THE WEST ON EASTERN EDGE OF
BETTER 850 MB WARM ADVECTION. HI-RES/RAPID UPDATE MODELS KEEP
MAJORITY OF PCPN BACK TO THE WEST WITH BEST FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH FOCUSED WARM ADVECTION ON INCREASING LOW-LEVEL JET AHEAD OF
DEEPENING LOW THAT POINTS INTO N CENTRAL IOWA/SRN MINNESOTA
OVERNIGHT. THEY DO INDICATE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES MIGHT SEE AN
ISOLATED SPRINKLE AFTER 06Z...BUT DRY LAYER BETWEEN 900 MB AND 750
MB WOULD HAVE TO SATURATE BEFORE ANYTHING WOULD REACH THE GROUND.
CURRENT FORECAST AS A GOOD HANDLE ON CHANCES FOR PCPN MOVING IN
AROUND/AFTER 10Z.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...THOUGH SOME
PATCHY GROUND FOG POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST WHERE CLOUD
BLANKET WILL BE THINNER. WARM...MOIST AIRMASS ADVECTS IN AHEAD OF
SURFACE LOW THAT WILL DROP CIGS TO MVFR LEVELS BY MIDDAY IN THE
WEST...AND LATE AFTERNOON IN THE EAST. SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE
FAR SOUTHEAST MAY REMAIN AT VFR LEVELS UNTIL SHOWERS MOVE IN THAT
WILL DROP BOTH CIGS AND VSBYS TO MVFR LEVELS IN THE EVENING. LOW-
LEVEL JET MOVING INTO THE REGION AFTER 00Z BRINGS SURFACE TO 2K
FT WIND DIFFERENCES CLOSE TO BUT NOT QUITE TO LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR
CRITERIA. WILL TAKE A LOOK AT FULL 00Z DATA SET BUT PLAN IS TO
LEAVE OUT FOR NOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/

SHORT TERM...

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

TONIGHT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS
OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. CUMULUS CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AS CIRRUS
CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. EXPECT LOWS AROUND 60. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASE OVERNIGHT BUT CIRRUS OVERHEAD SHOULD PREVENT ANY
FOG.

ON FRIDAY STRONG MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN WI AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS IOWA.
STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE ALSO MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN WI DURING THIS
TIME. ECMWF LAGS BEHIND WITH THESE FEATURES AND IS SLOWER TO BRING
PRECIP TO SOUTHEAST WI. HAVE POPS WORKING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
PART OF THE CWA DURING THE LATE MORNING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION RAMPS UP IN SOUTHWEST
/SOUTH-CENTRAL WI DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE LATEST MESO MODELS
HAVE SHIFTED THE GREATEST PRECIP ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA. KEPT A CHANCE OF THUNDER GOING WITH CAPE UP TO 100 J/KG AT
BEST.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH.

A SLOW MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WEAKENING SFC TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS SRN WI LATE FRI NT AND SAT BUT LINGER SAT NT AS IT GETS
REINFORCED FROM ANOTHER VORTICITY MAXIMUM DROPPING SEWD FROM
ONTARIO CANADA. A SLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL ACCOMPANY THESE FEATURES
AND PRODUCE WELL ORGANIZED LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM...MOIST ADVECTION
AND FRONTOGENESIS FOR FRI AFT AND NIGHT. PWS WILL RISE TO
1.60-1.70 INCHES WITH A MOIST ADIABATIC ATM EXPECTED. THUS MDT TO
HEAVY RAINFALL RATES WILL OCCUR AT TIMES FRI AFT AND NIGHT. TOTAL
RAINFALL OF 1.00-1.50 INCHES IS FORECAST WITH THE LESSER AMOUNTS
OVER FAR SE WI. THE LLJ AND STRONGER FORCING WILL HAVE MOVED EAST
BY SAT BUT THE TROUGH PASSAGE WILL MAINTAIN CLOUDY SKIES AND
SHOWERY CONDITIONS. THE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LINGER FOR MUCH OF SAT
NT AND INTO THE MORNING ON SUN OVER ERN WI. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SLOWLY BUILD ACROSS SRN WI ON SUN WITH A RETURN OF SOME SUNSHINE
AND WARMING TEMPS.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

A VERY WARM AND HUMID WEEK IS EXPECTED AS A LARGE UPPER RIDGE
FORMS OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN USA WITH A POLAR TROUGH
OVER WRN CANADA AND THE PACIFIC NW. NO PCPN IS FORECAST.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. HIGH TO MID CIRRUS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST BECOMING OVERCAST OVERNIGHT.
PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE LATE FRIDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON IN
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND FRIDAY EVENING IN THE SOUTHEAST. IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE WITH THE RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...REM
TONIGHT/FRIDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MARQUARDT
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...GEHRING




000
FXUS63 KMKX 272018
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
318 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

TONIGHT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS
OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. CUMULUS CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AS CIRRUS
CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. EXPECT LOWS AROUND 60. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASE OVERNIGHT BUT CIRRUS OVERHEAD SHOULD PREVENT ANY
FOG.

ON FRIDAY STRONG MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN WI AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS IOWA.
STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE ALSO MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN WI DURING THIS
TIME. ECMWF LAGS BEHIND WITH THESE FEATURES AND IS SLOWER TO BRING
PRECIP TO SOUTHEAST WI. HAVE POPS WORKING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
PART OF THE CWA DURING THE LATE MORNING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION RAMPS UP IN SOUTHWEST
/SOUTH-CENTRAL WI DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE LATEST MESO MODELS
HAVE SHIFTED THE GREATEST PRECIP ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA. KEPT A CHANCE OF THUNDER GOING WITH CAPE UP TO 100 J/KG AT
BEST.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH.

A SLOW MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WEAKENING SFC TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS SRN WI LATE FRI NT AND SAT BUT LINGER SAT NT AS IT GETS
REINFORCED FROM ANOTHER VORTICITY MAXIMUM DROPPING SEWD FROM
ONTARIO CANADA. A SLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL ACCOMPANY THESE FEATURES
AND PRODUCE WELL ORGANIZED LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM...MOIST ADVECTION
AND FRONTOGENESIS FOR FRI AFT AND NIGHT. PWS WILL RISE TO
1.60-1.70 INCHES WITH A MOIST ADIABATIC ATM EXPECTED. THUS MDT TO
HEAVY RAINFALL RATES WILL OCCUR AT TIMES FRI AFT AND NIGHT. TOTAL
RAINFALL OF 1.00-1.50 INCHES IS FORECAST WITH THE LESSER AMOUNTS
OVER FAR SE WI. THE LLJ AND STRONGER FORCING WILL HAVE MOVED EAST
BY SAT BUT THE TROUGH PASSAGE WILL MAINTAIN CLOUDY SKIES AND
SHOWERY CONDITIONS. THE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LINGER FOR MUCH OF SAT
NT AND INTO THE MORNING ON SUN OVER ERN WI. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SLOWLY BUILD ACROSS SRN WI ON SUN WITH A RETURN OF SOME SUNSHINE
AND WARMING TEMPS.


.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

A VERY WARM AND HUMID WEEK IS EXPECTED AS A LARGE UPPER RIDGE
FORMS OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN USA WITH A POLAR TROUGH
OVER WRN CANADA AND THE PACIFIC NW. NO PCPN IS FORECAST.


&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. HIGH TO MID CIRRUS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST BECOMING OVERCAST OVERNIGHT.
PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE LATE FRIDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON IN
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND FRIDAY EVENING IN THE SOUTHEAST. IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE WITH THE RAIN SHOWERS.


&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TONIGHT/FRIDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MARQUARDT
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...GEHRING





000
FXUS63 KMKX 272018
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
318 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

TONIGHT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS
OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. CUMULUS CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AS CIRRUS
CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. EXPECT LOWS AROUND 60. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASE OVERNIGHT BUT CIRRUS OVERHEAD SHOULD PREVENT ANY
FOG.

ON FRIDAY STRONG MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN WI AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS IOWA.
STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE ALSO MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN WI DURING THIS
TIME. ECMWF LAGS BEHIND WITH THESE FEATURES AND IS SLOWER TO BRING
PRECIP TO SOUTHEAST WI. HAVE POPS WORKING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
PART OF THE CWA DURING THE LATE MORNING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION RAMPS UP IN SOUTHWEST
/SOUTH-CENTRAL WI DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE LATEST MESO MODELS
HAVE SHIFTED THE GREATEST PRECIP ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA. KEPT A CHANCE OF THUNDER GOING WITH CAPE UP TO 100 J/KG AT
BEST.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH.

A SLOW MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WEAKENING SFC TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS SRN WI LATE FRI NT AND SAT BUT LINGER SAT NT AS IT GETS
REINFORCED FROM ANOTHER VORTICITY MAXIMUM DROPPING SEWD FROM
ONTARIO CANADA. A SLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL ACCOMPANY THESE FEATURES
AND PRODUCE WELL ORGANIZED LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM...MOIST ADVECTION
AND FRONTOGENESIS FOR FRI AFT AND NIGHT. PWS WILL RISE TO
1.60-1.70 INCHES WITH A MOIST ADIABATIC ATM EXPECTED. THUS MDT TO
HEAVY RAINFALL RATES WILL OCCUR AT TIMES FRI AFT AND NIGHT. TOTAL
RAINFALL OF 1.00-1.50 INCHES IS FORECAST WITH THE LESSER AMOUNTS
OVER FAR SE WI. THE LLJ AND STRONGER FORCING WILL HAVE MOVED EAST
BY SAT BUT THE TROUGH PASSAGE WILL MAINTAIN CLOUDY SKIES AND
SHOWERY CONDITIONS. THE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LINGER FOR MUCH OF SAT
NT AND INTO THE MORNING ON SUN OVER ERN WI. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SLOWLY BUILD ACROSS SRN WI ON SUN WITH A RETURN OF SOME SUNSHINE
AND WARMING TEMPS.


.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

A VERY WARM AND HUMID WEEK IS EXPECTED AS A LARGE UPPER RIDGE
FORMS OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN USA WITH A POLAR TROUGH
OVER WRN CANADA AND THE PACIFIC NW. NO PCPN IS FORECAST.


&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. HIGH TO MID CIRRUS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST BECOMING OVERCAST OVERNIGHT.
PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE LATE FRIDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON IN
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND FRIDAY EVENING IN THE SOUTHEAST. IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE WITH THE RAIN SHOWERS.


&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TONIGHT/FRIDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MARQUARDT
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...GEHRING




000
FXUS63 KMKX 271548 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1048 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...
CIRRUS SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS IN WESTERN IOWA WILL
SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL WI TODAY.
SCATTERED AFTERNOON CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION COMBINED WITH THE SUN SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS
TO GET INTO THE UPPER 70S WITH LOWER 70S IN LAKESHORE COUNTIES.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...
SCATTERED CUMULUS IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH TO MID CLOUDS
WILL BECOME OVERCAST FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT. PRECIP CHANCES
INCREASE LATE FRIDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON IN SOUTH-CENTRAL.
IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE MIDDAY FRIDAY IN SOUTH-CENTRAL WI WITH THE
RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

THE 250 MB UPPER LEVEL WINDS WERE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH WEAK RIDGING OCCURRING BRIEFLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BEFORE A WEAK SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
LATE TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE BEGINS THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUES TONIGHT.  700 MB UPWARD MOTION INCREASES TONIGHT. 700 MB
RH INCREASES TONIGHT BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MUCH OF THE
SATURATION IS ABOVE 700 MB.  THE NOSE OF A 40 KNOT 700 MB WIND MAX
JUST BEGINS TO AFFECT AREAS SOUTHWEST OF MADISON BY SUNRISE FRIDAY
WITH THE 850 MB SPEED MAX JUST REACHING NORTHEAST IOWA.

850 MB RH INCREASES LATE TONIGHT...BUT DOES NOT SATURATE.

A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES TODAY WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST
TONIGHT RESULTING IN A LIGHT SOUTH FLOW DEVELOPING AHEAD OF LOW
PRESSURE NEAR OMAHA LATE TONIGHT.

ANY PRECIPITATION REACHING SOUTHERN WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT WOULD BE
FROM A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK...WITH DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LAYERS
RESULTING IN MAINLY VIRGA.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THISPERIOD.
WHILE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES EXIST WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING OF
BETTER DCVA THERE IS ENOUGH CONSENSUS TO SUPPORT SPREADING POPS
ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER BEST PRECIP POTENTIAL CWA WIDE
ARRIVES FRIDAY NIGHT AS 850 LLJ TRANSLATES EAST INTO SRN WI AND
ENHANCES LIFT AND MOISTURE ADVECTION. STILL SEEING EVIDENCE OF
RIGHT REAR QUAD UPPER DIVERGENCE ADDING TO OVERALL COLUMN VERTICAL
MOTION. PROGS CONTINUE TO TO SHOW RELATIVELY MINIMAL CAPE SO WILL
KEEP THUNDER MENTION IN THE ISOLATED CATEGORY. THE GEM-NH HAS A
MORE SOUTHWARD BIAS TO THE QPF MAX ALONG THE WI/IL BORDER WHILE
THE OTHER MODELS TEND TO FAVOR A MORE CNTRL WI CORRIDOR THOUGH
STILL CLIPPING NRN CWA WITH HIGHER QPF. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
AND THE LOW LEVEL FEATURES WILL BE RATHER SLOW MOVING AND WILL
KEEP SOME HIGHER POPS IN THE EAST SATURDAY WITH SOME TAPERING
SATURDAY EVENING AS THE SURFACE LOW AND MID LEVEL TROUGH SHIFT
FURTHER EAST.

SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE TRANSLATING EAST FROM THE PLAINS. THE
ECMWF AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE GFS SLINGER SOME MID LEVEL
CYCLONIC FLOW IN ERN WI FOR A TIME WITH SOME INDICATIONS OF A LOW
LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH WITH THE GFS SHOWING LOW LEVEL NE WIND
REGIME.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
A DRY PERIOD EXPECTED WITH WARM THERMAL RIDGE EXTENDING INTO WI
WITH 500 HEIGHTS RISING WITH TIME. GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE VERY
WARM CONDITIONS ARRIVING MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH 925 TEMPS RAMPING
UP WELL INTO THE 20S CELSIUS. THE VERY WARM PATTERN IS PROGGD TO
PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY AS WELL. PER COORD WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES...BUMPED SUPERBLEND A SMIDGE ON TUE/WED.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...PATCHY IFR FOG UNTIL JUST AFTER SUNRISE.

SCATTERED DIURNAL FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS POSSIBLE MAINLY SOUTHEAST.
HOWEVER MOISTURE LIMITED AND A STABLE LAYER AROUND 850 MB WOULD
LIMIT COVERAGE AND VERTICAL EXTENT.

LOOK FOR HIGH/MID CLOUDS TO INCREASE TONIGHT WITH A MID LEVEL
OVERCAST LATE TONIGHT.  SOME VIRGA POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY SOUTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLY REACHING
THE GROUND AFTER SUNRISE MAINLY WEST OF MADISON.

MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES TODAY WITH
A MAINLY LIGHT EAST FLOW.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MARQUARDT
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...COLLAR




000
FXUS63 KMKX 271548 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1048 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...
CIRRUS SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS IN WESTERN IOWA WILL
SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL WI TODAY.
SCATTERED AFTERNOON CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION COMBINED WITH THE SUN SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS
TO GET INTO THE UPPER 70S WITH LOWER 70S IN LAKESHORE COUNTIES.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...
SCATTERED CUMULUS IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH TO MID CLOUDS
WILL BECOME OVERCAST FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT. PRECIP CHANCES
INCREASE LATE FRIDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON IN SOUTH-CENTRAL.
IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE MIDDAY FRIDAY IN SOUTH-CENTRAL WI WITH THE
RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

THE 250 MB UPPER LEVEL WINDS WERE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH WEAK RIDGING OCCURRING BRIEFLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BEFORE A WEAK SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
LATE TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE BEGINS THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUES TONIGHT.  700 MB UPWARD MOTION INCREASES TONIGHT. 700 MB
RH INCREASES TONIGHT BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MUCH OF THE
SATURATION IS ABOVE 700 MB.  THE NOSE OF A 40 KNOT 700 MB WIND MAX
JUST BEGINS TO AFFECT AREAS SOUTHWEST OF MADISON BY SUNRISE FRIDAY
WITH THE 850 MB SPEED MAX JUST REACHING NORTHEAST IOWA.

850 MB RH INCREASES LATE TONIGHT...BUT DOES NOT SATURATE.

A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES TODAY WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST
TONIGHT RESULTING IN A LIGHT SOUTH FLOW DEVELOPING AHEAD OF LOW
PRESSURE NEAR OMAHA LATE TONIGHT.

ANY PRECIPITATION REACHING SOUTHERN WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT WOULD BE
FROM A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK...WITH DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LAYERS
RESULTING IN MAINLY VIRGA.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THISPERIOD.
WHILE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES EXIST WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING OF
BETTER DCVA THERE IS ENOUGH CONSENSUS TO SUPPORT SPREADING POPS
ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER BEST PRECIP POTENTIAL CWA WIDE
ARRIVES FRIDAY NIGHT AS 850 LLJ TRANSLATES EAST INTO SRN WI AND
ENHANCES LIFT AND MOISTURE ADVECTION. STILL SEEING EVIDENCE OF
RIGHT REAR QUAD UPPER DIVERGENCE ADDING TO OVERALL COLUMN VERTICAL
MOTION. PROGS CONTINUE TO TO SHOW RELATIVELY MINIMAL CAPE SO WILL
KEEP THUNDER MENTION IN THE ISOLATED CATEGORY. THE GEM-NH HAS A
MORE SOUTHWARD BIAS TO THE QPF MAX ALONG THE WI/IL BORDER WHILE
THE OTHER MODELS TEND TO FAVOR A MORE CNTRL WI CORRIDOR THOUGH
STILL CLIPPING NRN CWA WITH HIGHER QPF. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
AND THE LOW LEVEL FEATURES WILL BE RATHER SLOW MOVING AND WILL
KEEP SOME HIGHER POPS IN THE EAST SATURDAY WITH SOME TAPERING
SATURDAY EVENING AS THE SURFACE LOW AND MID LEVEL TROUGH SHIFT
FURTHER EAST.

SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE TRANSLATING EAST FROM THE PLAINS. THE
ECMWF AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE GFS SLINGER SOME MID LEVEL
CYCLONIC FLOW IN ERN WI FOR A TIME WITH SOME INDICATIONS OF A LOW
LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH WITH THE GFS SHOWING LOW LEVEL NE WIND
REGIME.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
A DRY PERIOD EXPECTED WITH WARM THERMAL RIDGE EXTENDING INTO WI
WITH 500 HEIGHTS RISING WITH TIME. GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE VERY
WARM CONDITIONS ARRIVING MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH 925 TEMPS RAMPING
UP WELL INTO THE 20S CELSIUS. THE VERY WARM PATTERN IS PROGGD TO
PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY AS WELL. PER COORD WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES...BUMPED SUPERBLEND A SMIDGE ON TUE/WED.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...PATCHY IFR FOG UNTIL JUST AFTER SUNRISE.

SCATTERED DIURNAL FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS POSSIBLE MAINLY SOUTHEAST.
HOWEVER MOISTURE LIMITED AND A STABLE LAYER AROUND 850 MB WOULD
LIMIT COVERAGE AND VERTICAL EXTENT.

LOOK FOR HIGH/MID CLOUDS TO INCREASE TONIGHT WITH A MID LEVEL
OVERCAST LATE TONIGHT.  SOME VIRGA POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY SOUTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLY REACHING
THE GROUND AFTER SUNRISE MAINLY WEST OF MADISON.

MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES TODAY WITH
A MAINLY LIGHT EAST FLOW.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MARQUARDT
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...COLLAR





000
FXUS63 KMKX 270750
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
250 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

THE 250 MB UPPER LEVEL WINDS WERE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH WEAK RIDGING OCCURRING BRIEFLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BEFORE A WEAK SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
LATE TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE BEGINS THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUES TONIGHT.  700 MB UPWARD MOTION INCREASES TONIGHT. 700 MB
RH INCREASES TONIGHT BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MUCH OF THE
SATURATION IS ABOVE 700 MB.  THE NOSE OF A 40 KNOT 700 MB WIND MAX
JUST BEGINS TO AFFECT AREAS SOUTHWEST OF MADISON BY SUNRISE FRIDAY
WITH THE 850 MB SPEED MAX JUST REACHING NORTHEAST IOWA.

850 MB RH INCREASES LATE TONIGHT...BUT DOES NOT SATURATE.

A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES TODAY WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST
TONIGHT RESULTING IN A LIGHT SOUTH FLOW DEVELOPING AHEAD OF LOW
PRESSURE NEAR OMAHA LATE TONIGHT.

ANY PRECIPITATION REACHING SOUTHERN WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT WOULD BE
FROM A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK...WITH DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LAYERS
RESULTING IN MAINLY VIRGA.

.FRIDAY AND SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THISPERIOD.
WHILE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES EXIST WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING OF
BETTER DCVA THERE IS ENOUGH CONSENSUS TO SUPPORT SPREADING POPS
ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER BEST PRECIP POTENTIAL CWA WIDE
ARRIVES FRIDAY NIGHT AS 850 LLJ TRANSLATES EAST INTO SRN WI AND
ENHANCES LIFT AND MOISTURE ADVECTION. STILL SEEING EVIDENCE OF
RIGHT REAR QUAD UPPER DIVERGENCE ADDING TO OVERALL COLUMN VERTICAL
MOTION. PROGS CONTINUE TO TO SHOW RELATIVELY MINIMAL CAPE SO WILL
KEEP THUNDER MENTION IN THE ISOLATED CATEGORY. THE GEM-NH HAS A
MORE SOUTHWARD BIAS TO THE QPF MAX ALONG THE WI/IL BORDER WHILE
THE OTHER MODELS TEND TO FAVOR A MORE CNTRL WI CORRIDOR THOUGH
STILL CLIPPING NRN CWA WITH HIGHER QPF. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
AND THE LOW LEVEL FEATURES WILL BE RATHER SLOW MOVING AND WILL
KEEP SOME HIGHER POPS IN THE EAST SATURDAY WITH SOME TAPERING
SATURDAY EVENING AS THE SURFACE LOW AND MID LEVEL TROUGH SHIFT
FURTHER EAST.

.SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE TRANSLATING EAST FROM THE PLAINS. THE
ECMWF AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE GFS SLINGER SOME MID LEVEL
CYCLONIC FLOW IN ERN WI FOR A TIME WITH SOME INDICATIONS OF A LOW
LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH WITH THE GFS SHOWING LOW LEVEL NE WIND
REGIME.

.MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
A DRY PERIOD EXPECTED WITH WARM THERMAL RIDGE EXTENDING INTO WI
WITH 500 HEIGHTS RISING WITH TIME. GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE VERY
WARM CONDITIONS ARRIVING MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH 925 TEMPS RAMPING
UP WELL INTO THE 20S CELSIUS. THE VERY WARM PATTERN IS PROGGD TO
PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY AS WELL. PER COORD WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES...BUMPED SUPERBLEND A SMIDGE ON TUE/WED.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...PATCHY IFR FOG UNTIL JUST AFTER SUNRISE.

SCATTERED DIURNAL FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS POSSIBLE MAINLY SOUTHEAST.
HOWEVER MOISTURE LIMITED AND A STABLE LAYER AROUND 850 MB WOULD
LIMIT COVERAGE AND VERTICAL EXTENT.

LOOK FOR HIGH/MID CLOUDS TO INCREASE TONIGHT WITH A MID LEVEL
OVERCAST LATE TONIGHT.  SOME VIRGA POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY SOUTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLY REACHING
THE GROUND AFTER SUNRISE MAINLY WEST OF MADISON.

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES TODAY WITH
A MAINLY LIGHT EAST FLOW.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...COLLAR





000
FXUS63 KMKX 270750
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
250 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

THE 250 MB UPPER LEVEL WINDS WERE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH WEAK RIDGING OCCURRING BRIEFLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BEFORE A WEAK SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
LATE TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE BEGINS THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUES TONIGHT.  700 MB UPWARD MOTION INCREASES TONIGHT. 700 MB
RH INCREASES TONIGHT BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MUCH OF THE
SATURATION IS ABOVE 700 MB.  THE NOSE OF A 40 KNOT 700 MB WIND MAX
JUST BEGINS TO AFFECT AREAS SOUTHWEST OF MADISON BY SUNRISE FRIDAY
WITH THE 850 MB SPEED MAX JUST REACHING NORTHEAST IOWA.

850 MB RH INCREASES LATE TONIGHT...BUT DOES NOT SATURATE.

A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES TODAY WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST
TONIGHT RESULTING IN A LIGHT SOUTH FLOW DEVELOPING AHEAD OF LOW
PRESSURE NEAR OMAHA LATE TONIGHT.

ANY PRECIPITATION REACHING SOUTHERN WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT WOULD BE
FROM A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK...WITH DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LAYERS
RESULTING IN MAINLY VIRGA.

.FRIDAY AND SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THISPERIOD.
WHILE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES EXIST WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING OF
BETTER DCVA THERE IS ENOUGH CONSENSUS TO SUPPORT SPREADING POPS
ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER BEST PRECIP POTENTIAL CWA WIDE
ARRIVES FRIDAY NIGHT AS 850 LLJ TRANSLATES EAST INTO SRN WI AND
ENHANCES LIFT AND MOISTURE ADVECTION. STILL SEEING EVIDENCE OF
RIGHT REAR QUAD UPPER DIVERGENCE ADDING TO OVERALL COLUMN VERTICAL
MOTION. PROGS CONTINUE TO TO SHOW RELATIVELY MINIMAL CAPE SO WILL
KEEP THUNDER MENTION IN THE ISOLATED CATEGORY. THE GEM-NH HAS A
MORE SOUTHWARD BIAS TO THE QPF MAX ALONG THE WI/IL BORDER WHILE
THE OTHER MODELS TEND TO FAVOR A MORE CNTRL WI CORRIDOR THOUGH
STILL CLIPPING NRN CWA WITH HIGHER QPF. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
AND THE LOW LEVEL FEATURES WILL BE RATHER SLOW MOVING AND WILL
KEEP SOME HIGHER POPS IN THE EAST SATURDAY WITH SOME TAPERING
SATURDAY EVENING AS THE SURFACE LOW AND MID LEVEL TROUGH SHIFT
FURTHER EAST.

.SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE TRANSLATING EAST FROM THE PLAINS. THE
ECMWF AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE GFS SLINGER SOME MID LEVEL
CYCLONIC FLOW IN ERN WI FOR A TIME WITH SOME INDICATIONS OF A LOW
LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH WITH THE GFS SHOWING LOW LEVEL NE WIND
REGIME.

.MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
A DRY PERIOD EXPECTED WITH WARM THERMAL RIDGE EXTENDING INTO WI
WITH 500 HEIGHTS RISING WITH TIME. GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE VERY
WARM CONDITIONS ARRIVING MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH 925 TEMPS RAMPING
UP WELL INTO THE 20S CELSIUS. THE VERY WARM PATTERN IS PROGGD TO
PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY AS WELL. PER COORD WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES...BUMPED SUPERBLEND A SMIDGE ON TUE/WED.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...PATCHY IFR FOG UNTIL JUST AFTER SUNRISE.

SCATTERED DIURNAL FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS POSSIBLE MAINLY SOUTHEAST.
HOWEVER MOISTURE LIMITED AND A STABLE LAYER AROUND 850 MB WOULD
LIMIT COVERAGE AND VERTICAL EXTENT.

LOOK FOR HIGH/MID CLOUDS TO INCREASE TONIGHT WITH A MID LEVEL
OVERCAST LATE TONIGHT.  SOME VIRGA POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY SOUTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLY REACHING
THE GROUND AFTER SUNRISE MAINLY WEST OF MADISON.

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES TODAY WITH
A MAINLY LIGHT EAST FLOW.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...COLLAR




000
FXUS63 KMKX 270139 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
839 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.UPDATE...
CLOUD DECK WILL FINALLY CLEAR THE FAR SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE
STATE AROUND 930 PM...WITH ONLY A FEW CIRRUS STREAMERS AND SMOKE
FROM THE WESTERN U.S. WILDFIRES TOPPING THE RIDGE TO OUR WEST AND
DRIFTING ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING
SKIES WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING OVER THE STATE BRING THE PROSPECT
OF FOG OVERNIGHT. THE CROSS-OVER TEMPERATURES ARE A LITTLE BELOW
CURRENT FORECAST LOWS. WITH THE HRRR FORECAST VISIBILITIES NO
LOWER THAN 5-6 MILES AND THE 21Z SREF PROBABILITIES OF VSBYS BELOW
3 MILES AT 30 PCT FOR A FEW ISOLATED SPOTS...WILL HAVE PATCHY FOG
FOR THE RIVER VALLEYS AND LOW-LYING RURAL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...

MVFR/VFR CLOUD DECK WILL CLEAR THE FAR SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE
STATE BY 0230Z. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP
AFTER 06Z...BUT WILL ONLY PUT IN 4SM BR AT KENW FOR NOW SINCE THE
PROBABILITIES SHOW IT AS THE ONLY TAF LOCATION LIKELY TO GO BELOW
6 MILES. SOME DIURNAL CU EXPECTED THURSDAY...BUT EVEN THE MORE
MOIST 18Z NAM ONLY INDICATING SCATTERED COVERAGE...WITH MAYBE A
BRIEF PERIOD OR TWO OF BROKEN IN THE FAR EAST LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON UNTIL THE STABILIZING EFFECTS OF THE LAKE BREEZE KICK IN.
WILL AWAIT LOOK AT FULL 00Z DATA SET BUT LOOKS LIKE MAINLY
SCATTERED CUMULUS IN THE 2500 TO 3000 FT RANGE FOR THURSDAY AND
VFR CONDITIONS AFTER ANY MORNING FOG DISSIPATES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015/

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXITS TO THE EAST. THE STUBBORN LOW CLOUDS SHOULD
FINALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO SOUTHERN WI. I AM
LESS CONFIDENT ABOUT MILWAUKEE AREA COMPLETELY CLEARING OUT. MIN
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER 50S DUE TO THE CLEARING SKIES
EXCEPT A LITTLE WARMER IN THE MILWAUKEE AREA.

LINGERING WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW AND A SHORTWAVE WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER
DAY OF DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS... MORE CONCENTRATED IN SOUTHEAST WI.
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR A LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP ONCE
AGAIN. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 70 NEAR THE LAKE TO THE
UPPER 70S WEST OF MADISON.

THURSDAY NIGHT... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WILL BE IN SOUTHERLY FLOW ON BACKSIDE OF SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND
MORE CLOUDS WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS IOWA ON FRIDAY AND NORTHERN
ILLINOIS OR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN ON SATURDAY. A PAIR OF SHORTWAVES
MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER
JET. MODELS BRING PRECIP IN ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH LATE FRIDAY
MORNING AND HAVE IT ENDING IN THE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY EVENING. THIS
MORNING`S ECMWF IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE OTHERS WITH THE
TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM. KEPT LIKELY POPS FOR FRIDAY EVENING AND NIGHT
AS THE GREATEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS DURING THIS TIME AS THE
LOW LEVEL JET SLIDES INTO THE REGION. PWS GET UP TO 1.5 INCHES.
MODEL CONSENSUS OF ABOUT 100 J/KG OF CAPE DURING THIS TIME SO WILL
KEEP THE CHANCE OF THUNDER.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

MID LEVELS START TO DRY OUT SUNDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SETS UP.
IT REMAINS IN PLACE FOR MOST OF THE WEEK BRINGING WARM AND DRY
WEATHER. 925 TEMPS REACH AROUND 20 C SUNDAY AND GET INTO THE MID 20S
MIDWEEK WHICH MEANS HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S.
EXTENDED RANGE MODELS SHOW THIS TROUGH-RIDGE PATTERN OVER THE
CONTINENTAL U.S. CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEK 2 PERIOD.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...
CIGS HAVE FINALLY LIFTED TO VFR LEVELS EXCEPT NEAR WAUKESHA...
WATERTOWN AND WEST BEND. EXPECT THAT AREA TO BECOME VFR BEFORE
SUNSET.

THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR AREAS WEST OF SHEBOYGAN... WAUKESHA AND
BURLINGTON TO CLEAR OUT TONIGHT. I AM NOT CONFIDENT THAT EAST OF
THAT LINE WILL COMPLETELY CLEAR.

EXPECT DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN THURSDAY
MORNING. THEY WILL BE MORE CONCENTRATED IN SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN. LOOK
FOR A LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...REM
TONIGHT/THURSDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MRC
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MARQUARDT





000
FXUS63 KMKX 270139 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
839 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.UPDATE...
CLOUD DECK WILL FINALLY CLEAR THE FAR SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE
STATE AROUND 930 PM...WITH ONLY A FEW CIRRUS STREAMERS AND SMOKE
FROM THE WESTERN U.S. WILDFIRES TOPPING THE RIDGE TO OUR WEST AND
DRIFTING ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING
SKIES WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING OVER THE STATE BRING THE PROSPECT
OF FOG OVERNIGHT. THE CROSS-OVER TEMPERATURES ARE A LITTLE BELOW
CURRENT FORECAST LOWS. WITH THE HRRR FORECAST VISIBILITIES NO
LOWER THAN 5-6 MILES AND THE 21Z SREF PROBABILITIES OF VSBYS BELOW
3 MILES AT 30 PCT FOR A FEW ISOLATED SPOTS...WILL HAVE PATCHY FOG
FOR THE RIVER VALLEYS AND LOW-LYING RURAL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...

MVFR/VFR CLOUD DECK WILL CLEAR THE FAR SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE
STATE BY 0230Z. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP
AFTER 06Z...BUT WILL ONLY PUT IN 4SM BR AT KENW FOR NOW SINCE THE
PROBABILITIES SHOW IT AS THE ONLY TAF LOCATION LIKELY TO GO BELOW
6 MILES. SOME DIURNAL CU EXPECTED THURSDAY...BUT EVEN THE MORE
MOIST 18Z NAM ONLY INDICATING SCATTERED COVERAGE...WITH MAYBE A
BRIEF PERIOD OR TWO OF BROKEN IN THE FAR EAST LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON UNTIL THE STABILIZING EFFECTS OF THE LAKE BREEZE KICK IN.
WILL AWAIT LOOK AT FULL 00Z DATA SET BUT LOOKS LIKE MAINLY
SCATTERED CUMULUS IN THE 2500 TO 3000 FT RANGE FOR THURSDAY AND
VFR CONDITIONS AFTER ANY MORNING FOG DISSIPATES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015/

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXITS TO THE EAST. THE STUBBORN LOW CLOUDS SHOULD
FINALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO SOUTHERN WI. I AM
LESS CONFIDENT ABOUT MILWAUKEE AREA COMPLETELY CLEARING OUT. MIN
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER 50S DUE TO THE CLEARING SKIES
EXCEPT A LITTLE WARMER IN THE MILWAUKEE AREA.

LINGERING WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW AND A SHORTWAVE WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER
DAY OF DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS... MORE CONCENTRATED IN SOUTHEAST WI.
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR A LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP ONCE
AGAIN. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 70 NEAR THE LAKE TO THE
UPPER 70S WEST OF MADISON.

THURSDAY NIGHT... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WILL BE IN SOUTHERLY FLOW ON BACKSIDE OF SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND
MORE CLOUDS WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS IOWA ON FRIDAY AND NORTHERN
ILLINOIS OR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN ON SATURDAY. A PAIR OF SHORTWAVES
MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER
JET. MODELS BRING PRECIP IN ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH LATE FRIDAY
MORNING AND HAVE IT ENDING IN THE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY EVENING. THIS
MORNING`S ECMWF IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE OTHERS WITH THE
TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM. KEPT LIKELY POPS FOR FRIDAY EVENING AND NIGHT
AS THE GREATEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS DURING THIS TIME AS THE
LOW LEVEL JET SLIDES INTO THE REGION. PWS GET UP TO 1.5 INCHES.
MODEL CONSENSUS OF ABOUT 100 J/KG OF CAPE DURING THIS TIME SO WILL
KEEP THE CHANCE OF THUNDER.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

MID LEVELS START TO DRY OUT SUNDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SETS UP.
IT REMAINS IN PLACE FOR MOST OF THE WEEK BRINGING WARM AND DRY
WEATHER. 925 TEMPS REACH AROUND 20 C SUNDAY AND GET INTO THE MID 20S
MIDWEEK WHICH MEANS HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S.
EXTENDED RANGE MODELS SHOW THIS TROUGH-RIDGE PATTERN OVER THE
CONTINENTAL U.S. CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEK 2 PERIOD.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...
CIGS HAVE FINALLY LIFTED TO VFR LEVELS EXCEPT NEAR WAUKESHA...
WATERTOWN AND WEST BEND. EXPECT THAT AREA TO BECOME VFR BEFORE
SUNSET.

THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR AREAS WEST OF SHEBOYGAN... WAUKESHA AND
BURLINGTON TO CLEAR OUT TONIGHT. I AM NOT CONFIDENT THAT EAST OF
THAT LINE WILL COMPLETELY CLEAR.

EXPECT DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN THURSDAY
MORNING. THEY WILL BE MORE CONCENTRATED IN SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN. LOOK
FOR A LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...REM
TONIGHT/THURSDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MRC
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MARQUARDT




000
FXUS63 KMKX 270139 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
839 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.UPDATE...
CLOUD DECK WILL FINALLY CLEAR THE FAR SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE
STATE AROUND 930 PM...WITH ONLY A FEW CIRRUS STREAMERS AND SMOKE
FROM THE WESTERN U.S. WILDFIRES TOPPING THE RIDGE TO OUR WEST AND
DRIFTING ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING
SKIES WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING OVER THE STATE BRING THE PROSPECT
OF FOG OVERNIGHT. THE CROSS-OVER TEMPERATURES ARE A LITTLE BELOW
CURRENT FORECAST LOWS. WITH THE HRRR FORECAST VISIBILITIES NO
LOWER THAN 5-6 MILES AND THE 21Z SREF PROBABILITIES OF VSBYS BELOW
3 MILES AT 30 PCT FOR A FEW ISOLATED SPOTS...WILL HAVE PATCHY FOG
FOR THE RIVER VALLEYS AND LOW-LYING RURAL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...

MVFR/VFR CLOUD DECK WILL CLEAR THE FAR SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE
STATE BY 0230Z. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP
AFTER 06Z...BUT WILL ONLY PUT IN 4SM BR AT KENW FOR NOW SINCE THE
PROBABILITIES SHOW IT AS THE ONLY TAF LOCATION LIKELY TO GO BELOW
6 MILES. SOME DIURNAL CU EXPECTED THURSDAY...BUT EVEN THE MORE
MOIST 18Z NAM ONLY INDICATING SCATTERED COVERAGE...WITH MAYBE A
BRIEF PERIOD OR TWO OF BROKEN IN THE FAR EAST LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON UNTIL THE STABILIZING EFFECTS OF THE LAKE BREEZE KICK IN.
WILL AWAIT LOOK AT FULL 00Z DATA SET BUT LOOKS LIKE MAINLY
SCATTERED CUMULUS IN THE 2500 TO 3000 FT RANGE FOR THURSDAY AND
VFR CONDITIONS AFTER ANY MORNING FOG DISSIPATES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015/

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXITS TO THE EAST. THE STUBBORN LOW CLOUDS SHOULD
FINALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO SOUTHERN WI. I AM
LESS CONFIDENT ABOUT MILWAUKEE AREA COMPLETELY CLEARING OUT. MIN
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER 50S DUE TO THE CLEARING SKIES
EXCEPT A LITTLE WARMER IN THE MILWAUKEE AREA.

LINGERING WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW AND A SHORTWAVE WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER
DAY OF DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS... MORE CONCENTRATED IN SOUTHEAST WI.
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR A LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP ONCE
AGAIN. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 70 NEAR THE LAKE TO THE
UPPER 70S WEST OF MADISON.

THURSDAY NIGHT... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WILL BE IN SOUTHERLY FLOW ON BACKSIDE OF SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND
MORE CLOUDS WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS IOWA ON FRIDAY AND NORTHERN
ILLINOIS OR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN ON SATURDAY. A PAIR OF SHORTWAVES
MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER
JET. MODELS BRING PRECIP IN ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH LATE FRIDAY
MORNING AND HAVE IT ENDING IN THE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY EVENING. THIS
MORNING`S ECMWF IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE OTHERS WITH THE
TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM. KEPT LIKELY POPS FOR FRIDAY EVENING AND NIGHT
AS THE GREATEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS DURING THIS TIME AS THE
LOW LEVEL JET SLIDES INTO THE REGION. PWS GET UP TO 1.5 INCHES.
MODEL CONSENSUS OF ABOUT 100 J/KG OF CAPE DURING THIS TIME SO WILL
KEEP THE CHANCE OF THUNDER.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

MID LEVELS START TO DRY OUT SUNDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SETS UP.
IT REMAINS IN PLACE FOR MOST OF THE WEEK BRINGING WARM AND DRY
WEATHER. 925 TEMPS REACH AROUND 20 C SUNDAY AND GET INTO THE MID 20S
MIDWEEK WHICH MEANS HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S.
EXTENDED RANGE MODELS SHOW THIS TROUGH-RIDGE PATTERN OVER THE
CONTINENTAL U.S. CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEK 2 PERIOD.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...
CIGS HAVE FINALLY LIFTED TO VFR LEVELS EXCEPT NEAR WAUKESHA...
WATERTOWN AND WEST BEND. EXPECT THAT AREA TO BECOME VFR BEFORE
SUNSET.

THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR AREAS WEST OF SHEBOYGAN... WAUKESHA AND
BURLINGTON TO CLEAR OUT TONIGHT. I AM NOT CONFIDENT THAT EAST OF
THAT LINE WILL COMPLETELY CLEAR.

EXPECT DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN THURSDAY
MORNING. THEY WILL BE MORE CONCENTRATED IN SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN. LOOK
FOR A LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...REM
TONIGHT/THURSDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MRC
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MARQUARDT




000
FXUS63 KMKX 270139 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
839 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.UPDATE...
CLOUD DECK WILL FINALLY CLEAR THE FAR SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE
STATE AROUND 930 PM...WITH ONLY A FEW CIRRUS STREAMERS AND SMOKE
FROM THE WESTERN U.S. WILDFIRES TOPPING THE RIDGE TO OUR WEST AND
DRIFTING ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING
SKIES WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING OVER THE STATE BRING THE PROSPECT
OF FOG OVERNIGHT. THE CROSS-OVER TEMPERATURES ARE A LITTLE BELOW
CURRENT FORECAST LOWS. WITH THE HRRR FORECAST VISIBILITIES NO
LOWER THAN 5-6 MILES AND THE 21Z SREF PROBABILITIES OF VSBYS BELOW
3 MILES AT 30 PCT FOR A FEW ISOLATED SPOTS...WILL HAVE PATCHY FOG
FOR THE RIVER VALLEYS AND LOW-LYING RURAL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...

MVFR/VFR CLOUD DECK WILL CLEAR THE FAR SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE
STATE BY 0230Z. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP
AFTER 06Z...BUT WILL ONLY PUT IN 4SM BR AT KENW FOR NOW SINCE THE
PROBABILITIES SHOW IT AS THE ONLY TAF LOCATION LIKELY TO GO BELOW
6 MILES. SOME DIURNAL CU EXPECTED THURSDAY...BUT EVEN THE MORE
MOIST 18Z NAM ONLY INDICATING SCATTERED COVERAGE...WITH MAYBE A
BRIEF PERIOD OR TWO OF BROKEN IN THE FAR EAST LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON UNTIL THE STABILIZING EFFECTS OF THE LAKE BREEZE KICK IN.
WILL AWAIT LOOK AT FULL 00Z DATA SET BUT LOOKS LIKE MAINLY
SCATTERED CUMULUS IN THE 2500 TO 3000 FT RANGE FOR THURSDAY AND
VFR CONDITIONS AFTER ANY MORNING FOG DISSIPATES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015/

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXITS TO THE EAST. THE STUBBORN LOW CLOUDS SHOULD
FINALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO SOUTHERN WI. I AM
LESS CONFIDENT ABOUT MILWAUKEE AREA COMPLETELY CLEARING OUT. MIN
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER 50S DUE TO THE CLEARING SKIES
EXCEPT A LITTLE WARMER IN THE MILWAUKEE AREA.

LINGERING WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW AND A SHORTWAVE WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER
DAY OF DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS... MORE CONCENTRATED IN SOUTHEAST WI.
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR A LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP ONCE
AGAIN. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 70 NEAR THE LAKE TO THE
UPPER 70S WEST OF MADISON.

THURSDAY NIGHT... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WILL BE IN SOUTHERLY FLOW ON BACKSIDE OF SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND
MORE CLOUDS WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS IOWA ON FRIDAY AND NORTHERN
ILLINOIS OR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN ON SATURDAY. A PAIR OF SHORTWAVES
MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER
JET. MODELS BRING PRECIP IN ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH LATE FRIDAY
MORNING AND HAVE IT ENDING IN THE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY EVENING. THIS
MORNING`S ECMWF IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE OTHERS WITH THE
TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM. KEPT LIKELY POPS FOR FRIDAY EVENING AND NIGHT
AS THE GREATEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS DURING THIS TIME AS THE
LOW LEVEL JET SLIDES INTO THE REGION. PWS GET UP TO 1.5 INCHES.
MODEL CONSENSUS OF ABOUT 100 J/KG OF CAPE DURING THIS TIME SO WILL
KEEP THE CHANCE OF THUNDER.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

MID LEVELS START TO DRY OUT SUNDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SETS UP.
IT REMAINS IN PLACE FOR MOST OF THE WEEK BRINGING WARM AND DRY
WEATHER. 925 TEMPS REACH AROUND 20 C SUNDAY AND GET INTO THE MID 20S
MIDWEEK WHICH MEANS HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S.
EXTENDED RANGE MODELS SHOW THIS TROUGH-RIDGE PATTERN OVER THE
CONTINENTAL U.S. CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEK 2 PERIOD.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...
CIGS HAVE FINALLY LIFTED TO VFR LEVELS EXCEPT NEAR WAUKESHA...
WATERTOWN AND WEST BEND. EXPECT THAT AREA TO BECOME VFR BEFORE
SUNSET.

THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR AREAS WEST OF SHEBOYGAN... WAUKESHA AND
BURLINGTON TO CLEAR OUT TONIGHT. I AM NOT CONFIDENT THAT EAST OF
THAT LINE WILL COMPLETELY CLEAR.

EXPECT DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN THURSDAY
MORNING. THEY WILL BE MORE CONCENTRATED IN SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN. LOOK
FOR A LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...REM
TONIGHT/THURSDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MRC
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MARQUARDT





000
FXUS63 KMKX 262037
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
337 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.TONIGHT AND THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXITS TO THE EAST. THE STUBBORN LOW CLOUDS SHOULD
FINALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO SOUTHERN WI. I AM
LESS CONFIDENT ABOUT MILWAUKEE AREA COMPLETELY CLEARING OUT. MIN
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER 50S DUE TO THE CLEARING SKIES
EXCEPT A LITTLE WARMER IN THE MILWAUKEE AREA.

LINGERING WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW AND A SHORTWAVE WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER
DAY OF DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS... MORE CONCENTRATED IN SOUTHEAST WI.
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR A LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP ONCE
AGAIN. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 70 NEAR THE LAKE TO THE
UPPER 70S WEST OF MADISON.

.THURSDAY NIGHT... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WILL BE IN SOUTHERLY FLOW ON BACKSIDE OF SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND
MORE CLOUDS WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

.FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS IOWA ON FRIDAY AND NORTHERN
ILLINOIS OR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN ON SATURDAY. A PAIR OF SHORTWAVES
MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER
JET. MODELS BRING PRECIP IN ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH LATE FRIDAY
MORNING AND HAVE IT ENDING IN THE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY EVENING. THIS
MORNING`S ECMWF IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE OTHERS WITH THE
TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM. KEPT LIKELY POPS FOR FRIDAY EVENING AND NIGHT
AS THE GREATEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS DURING THIS TIME AS THE
LOW LEVEL JET SLIDES INTO THE REGION. PWS GET UP TO 1.5 INCHES.
MODEL CONSENSUS OF ABOUT 100 J/KG OF CAPE DURING THIS TIME SO WILL
KEEP THE CHANCE OF THUNDER.

.SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

MID LEVELS START TO DRY OUT SUNDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SETS UP.
IT REMAINS IN PLACE FOR MOST OF THE WEEK BRINGING WARM AND DRY
WEATHER. 925 TEMPS REACH AROUND 20 C SUNDAY AND GET INTO THE MID 20S
MIDWEEK WHICH MEANS HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S.
EXTENDED RANGE MODELS SHOW THIS TROUGH-RIDGE PATTERN OVER THE
CONTINENTAL U.S. CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEK 2 PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...
CIGS HAVE FINALLY LIFTED TO VFR LEVELS EXCEPT NEAR WAUKESHA...
WATERTOWN AND WEST BEND. EXPECT THAT AREA TO BECOME VFR BEFORE
SUNSET.

THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR AREAS WEST OF SHEBOYGAN... WAUKESHA AND
BURLINGTON TO CLEAR OUT TONIGHT. I AM NOT CONFIDENT THAT EAST OF
THAT LINE WILL COMPLETELY CLEAR.

EXPECT DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN THURSDAY
MORNING. THEY WILL BE MORE CONCENTRATED IN SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN. LOOK
FOR A LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TONIGHT/THURSDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MRC
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MARQUARDT




000
FXUS63 KMKX 262037
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
337 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.TONIGHT AND THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXITS TO THE EAST. THE STUBBORN LOW CLOUDS SHOULD
FINALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO SOUTHERN WI. I AM
LESS CONFIDENT ABOUT MILWAUKEE AREA COMPLETELY CLEARING OUT. MIN
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER 50S DUE TO THE CLEARING SKIES
EXCEPT A LITTLE WARMER IN THE MILWAUKEE AREA.

LINGERING WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW AND A SHORTWAVE WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER
DAY OF DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS... MORE CONCENTRATED IN SOUTHEAST WI.
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR A LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP ONCE
AGAIN. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 70 NEAR THE LAKE TO THE
UPPER 70S WEST OF MADISON.

.THURSDAY NIGHT... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WILL BE IN SOUTHERLY FLOW ON BACKSIDE OF SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND
MORE CLOUDS WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

.FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS IOWA ON FRIDAY AND NORTHERN
ILLINOIS OR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN ON SATURDAY. A PAIR OF SHORTWAVES
MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER
JET. MODELS BRING PRECIP IN ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH LATE FRIDAY
MORNING AND HAVE IT ENDING IN THE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY EVENING. THIS
MORNING`S ECMWF IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE OTHERS WITH THE
TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM. KEPT LIKELY POPS FOR FRIDAY EVENING AND NIGHT
AS THE GREATEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS DURING THIS TIME AS THE
LOW LEVEL JET SLIDES INTO THE REGION. PWS GET UP TO 1.5 INCHES.
MODEL CONSENSUS OF ABOUT 100 J/KG OF CAPE DURING THIS TIME SO WILL
KEEP THE CHANCE OF THUNDER.

.SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

MID LEVELS START TO DRY OUT SUNDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SETS UP.
IT REMAINS IN PLACE FOR MOST OF THE WEEK BRINGING WARM AND DRY
WEATHER. 925 TEMPS REACH AROUND 20 C SUNDAY AND GET INTO THE MID 20S
MIDWEEK WHICH MEANS HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S.
EXTENDED RANGE MODELS SHOW THIS TROUGH-RIDGE PATTERN OVER THE
CONTINENTAL U.S. CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEK 2 PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...
CIGS HAVE FINALLY LIFTED TO VFR LEVELS EXCEPT NEAR WAUKESHA...
WATERTOWN AND WEST BEND. EXPECT THAT AREA TO BECOME VFR BEFORE
SUNSET.

THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR AREAS WEST OF SHEBOYGAN... WAUKESHA AND
BURLINGTON TO CLEAR OUT TONIGHT. I AM NOT CONFIDENT THAT EAST OF
THAT LINE WILL COMPLETELY CLEAR.

EXPECT DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN THURSDAY
MORNING. THEY WILL BE MORE CONCENTRATED IN SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN. LOOK
FOR A LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TONIGHT/THURSDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MRC
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MARQUARDT





000
FXUS63 KMKX 261609 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1109 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.UPDATE...

THE AREA OF CLOUDS OVER SOUTHERN WI THIS MORNING IS SHIFTING
SOUTHEAST... BUT BROKEN CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE BUILDING IN QUICKLY
BEHIND IT. EXPECT ANOTHER MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY FOR US WHICH WILL IMPACT
THE HIGH TEMPS. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 60S ONCE AGAIN WITH A FEW SPOTS
WEST OF MADISON HITTING THE LOWER 70S. LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR A
LAKE BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON.

CLEAR SKIES WILL FINALLY BE OVER US TONIGHT. EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF
CUMULUS CLOUDS OVER SOUTHEAST AND PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL WI
THURSDAY- THIS TIME NOT SO WIDESPREAD.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

CIGS WILL BE ON THE DIVIDING LINE BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. DRY AIR WILL BRING BROKEN TO AT TIMES SCATTERED DIURNAL
CUMULUS WEST OF MADISON... WHILE EASTERN AREAS WILL SEE ONLY A FEW
BREAKS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

THE 250 MB UPPER LOW WILL BECOME CENTERED JUST EAST OF JAMES BAY
CANADA BY EVENING AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
TOWARD THE NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA AREA WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.

THE 850/700 CYCLONIC FLOW WILL WEAKEN WITH WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION
WILL BEGINNING TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE 850/700 MB RH WILL DRY FROM THE WEST...ESPECIALLY AT 700 MB
LEVELS.  THERE WILL STILL BE SOME LINGERING MOISTURE AT 850
MB...ESPECIALLY EAST.

THEREFORE THE STRATOCUMULUS DECK IS EXPECTED TO ERODE SLOWLY OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND BECOME SCATTERED TO BROKEN OVER THE
EAST.

A SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD INTO WISCONSIN WITH LIGHT WINDS.  A LAKE
BREEZE IS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE RIDGE AXIS APPROACHES
LAKE MICHIGAN.

TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN A SLOW MODERATION...ESPECIALLY WEST AREAS
WITH MORE SUNSHINE.

THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...HIGH PROGS ALL SHOW ELONGATED VORT AXIS
SLIDING THROUGH WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING TAKING HOLD AHEAD OF
APPROACHING PLAINS SHORTWAVE. SURFACE/850 HIGHS WILL BE OFF TO THE
EAST WITH A RENEWED SOUTHERLY FLOW SETTING UP. ALL IN ALL AIRMASS
WILL BE DRY AND 925 TEMPS ON AN UPWARD TREND...WITH INLAND AREAS
NUDGING INTO THE UPPER TEENS CELSIUS.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
FAIRLY POTENT SHORTWAVE PROGGD TO MOVE TOWARDS CNTRL/SRN WI BY
FRI AFTN AND CROSS THE AREA FRI NGT/SAT AND EXIT TO THE EAST SAT
EVE. 850 LLJ INCREASES MOIST ADV LATER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH SOME RIGHT REAR DIVERGENCE WITH EXITING JET CORE THROUGH UPR
LAKES REGION. THE 00Z ECMWF IS THE SLOWEST SOLUTION AND LINGERS
QPF LONGER. THE GFS/NAM AND NOW THE ECMWF HAVE ALL COME IN WITH A
MORE NORTHERN SOLUTION WITH RESPECT TO SURFACE LOW TRACK AND
HIGHEST QPF AXIS. THE GEM IS STILL A BIT SOUTH WITH QPF AXIS
STRADDLING THE WI/IL BORDER BUT THIS IS NOW THE OUTLIER SOLUTION
WITH ALL OTHER MODELS MORE OR LESS SHOWING HIGHEST QPF TOTALS
ACROSS CNTRL WI OR INTO THE NRN CWA. HAVE BOOSTED POPS INTO LIKELY
CATEGORY FOR THE FAR WEST FRIDAY AFTN AND CWA WIDE FRI NGT.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
A DRY PERIOD EXPECTED WITH WARM THERMAL RIDGE EXTENDING INTO WI
WITH 500 HEIGHTS RISING WITH TIME. IF SLOWER ECMWF IS RIGHT THEN
THERMAL TROUGH MAY LINGER A BIT ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW THE VERY WARM CONDITIONS ARRIVING MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH 925
TEMPS RAMPING UP WELL INTO THE 20S CELSIUS.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...HAVE KEPT CLOUD DECK AT MVFR LEVELS INTO THE
MORNING HOURS EXCEPT OVER WESTERN PORTION OF FORECAST AREA THAT WILL
SEE SOME BREAKS AND LEVELS RISE TO BETWEEN 3K AND 5K FT. DRY AIR WILL
BRING SCATTERED TO AT TIMES BROKEN DIURNAL CUMULUS TO THE WEST WHILE
EASTERN AREAS WILL SEE THE STRATOCUMULUS DECK RISE TO VFR LEVELS BY
LATE MORNING...WITH BREAKS DEVELOPING BY AFTERNOON.

MARINE...EXPECT LIGHT WINDS TODAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
APPROACHES LAKE MICHIGAN BY EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN A LIGHT
EAST FLOW LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MRC
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...COLLAR





000
FXUS63 KMKX 261609 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1109 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.UPDATE...

THE AREA OF CLOUDS OVER SOUTHERN WI THIS MORNING IS SHIFTING
SOUTHEAST... BUT BROKEN CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE BUILDING IN QUICKLY
BEHIND IT. EXPECT ANOTHER MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY FOR US WHICH WILL IMPACT
THE HIGH TEMPS. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 60S ONCE AGAIN WITH A FEW SPOTS
WEST OF MADISON HITTING THE LOWER 70S. LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR A
LAKE BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON.

CLEAR SKIES WILL FINALLY BE OVER US TONIGHT. EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF
CUMULUS CLOUDS OVER SOUTHEAST AND PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL WI
THURSDAY- THIS TIME NOT SO WIDESPREAD.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

CIGS WILL BE ON THE DIVIDING LINE BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. DRY AIR WILL BRING BROKEN TO AT TIMES SCATTERED DIURNAL
CUMULUS WEST OF MADISON... WHILE EASTERN AREAS WILL SEE ONLY A FEW
BREAKS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

THE 250 MB UPPER LOW WILL BECOME CENTERED JUST EAST OF JAMES BAY
CANADA BY EVENING AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
TOWARD THE NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA AREA WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.

THE 850/700 CYCLONIC FLOW WILL WEAKEN WITH WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION
WILL BEGINNING TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE 850/700 MB RH WILL DRY FROM THE WEST...ESPECIALLY AT 700 MB
LEVELS.  THERE WILL STILL BE SOME LINGERING MOISTURE AT 850
MB...ESPECIALLY EAST.

THEREFORE THE STRATOCUMULUS DECK IS EXPECTED TO ERODE SLOWLY OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND BECOME SCATTERED TO BROKEN OVER THE
EAST.

A SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD INTO WISCONSIN WITH LIGHT WINDS.  A LAKE
BREEZE IS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE RIDGE AXIS APPROACHES
LAKE MICHIGAN.

TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN A SLOW MODERATION...ESPECIALLY WEST AREAS
WITH MORE SUNSHINE.

THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...HIGH PROGS ALL SHOW ELONGATED VORT AXIS
SLIDING THROUGH WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING TAKING HOLD AHEAD OF
APPROACHING PLAINS SHORTWAVE. SURFACE/850 HIGHS WILL BE OFF TO THE
EAST WITH A RENEWED SOUTHERLY FLOW SETTING UP. ALL IN ALL AIRMASS
WILL BE DRY AND 925 TEMPS ON AN UPWARD TREND...WITH INLAND AREAS
NUDGING INTO THE UPPER TEENS CELSIUS.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
FAIRLY POTENT SHORTWAVE PROGGD TO MOVE TOWARDS CNTRL/SRN WI BY
FRI AFTN AND CROSS THE AREA FRI NGT/SAT AND EXIT TO THE EAST SAT
EVE. 850 LLJ INCREASES MOIST ADV LATER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH SOME RIGHT REAR DIVERGENCE WITH EXITING JET CORE THROUGH UPR
LAKES REGION. THE 00Z ECMWF IS THE SLOWEST SOLUTION AND LINGERS
QPF LONGER. THE GFS/NAM AND NOW THE ECMWF HAVE ALL COME IN WITH A
MORE NORTHERN SOLUTION WITH RESPECT TO SURFACE LOW TRACK AND
HIGHEST QPF AXIS. THE GEM IS STILL A BIT SOUTH WITH QPF AXIS
STRADDLING THE WI/IL BORDER BUT THIS IS NOW THE OUTLIER SOLUTION
WITH ALL OTHER MODELS MORE OR LESS SHOWING HIGHEST QPF TOTALS
ACROSS CNTRL WI OR INTO THE NRN CWA. HAVE BOOSTED POPS INTO LIKELY
CATEGORY FOR THE FAR WEST FRIDAY AFTN AND CWA WIDE FRI NGT.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
A DRY PERIOD EXPECTED WITH WARM THERMAL RIDGE EXTENDING INTO WI
WITH 500 HEIGHTS RISING WITH TIME. IF SLOWER ECMWF IS RIGHT THEN
THERMAL TROUGH MAY LINGER A BIT ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW THE VERY WARM CONDITIONS ARRIVING MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH 925
TEMPS RAMPING UP WELL INTO THE 20S CELSIUS.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...HAVE KEPT CLOUD DECK AT MVFR LEVELS INTO THE
MORNING HOURS EXCEPT OVER WESTERN PORTION OF FORECAST AREA THAT WILL
SEE SOME BREAKS AND LEVELS RISE TO BETWEEN 3K AND 5K FT. DRY AIR WILL
BRING SCATTERED TO AT TIMES BROKEN DIURNAL CUMULUS TO THE WEST WHILE
EASTERN AREAS WILL SEE THE STRATOCUMULUS DECK RISE TO VFR LEVELS BY
LATE MORNING...WITH BREAKS DEVELOPING BY AFTERNOON.

MARINE...EXPECT LIGHT WINDS TODAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
APPROACHES LAKE MICHIGAN BY EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN A LIGHT
EAST FLOW LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MRC
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...COLLAR




000
FXUS63 KMKX 260800
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
300 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

THE 250 MB UPPER LOW WILL BECOME CENTERED JUST EAST OF JAMES BAY
CANADA BY EVENING AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
TOWARD THE NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA AREA WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.

THE 850/700 CYCLONIC FLOW WILL WEAKEN WITH WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION
WILL BEGINNING TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE 850/700 MB RH WILL DRY FROM THE WEST...ESPECIALLY AT 700 MB
LEVELS.  THERE WILL STILL BE SOME LINGERING MOISTURE AT 850
MB...ESPECIALLY EAST.

THEREFORE THE STRATOCUMULUS DECK IS EXPECTED TO ERODE SLOWLY OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND BECOME SCATTERED TO BROKEN OVER THE
EAST.

A SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD INTO WISCONSIN WITH LIGHT WINDS.  A LAKE
BREEZE IS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE RIDGE AXIS APPROACHES
LAKE MICHIGAN.

TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN A SLOW MODERATION...ESPECIALLY WEST AREAS
WITH MORE SUNSHINE.

.THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...HIGH PROGS ALL SHOW ELONGATED VORT AXIS
SLIDING THROUGH WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING TAKING HOLD AHEAD OF
APPROACHING PLAINS SHORTWAVE. SURFACE/850 HIGHS WILL BE OFF TO THE
EAST WITH A RENEWED SOUTHERLY FLOW SETTING UP. ALL IN ALL AIRMASS
WILL BE DRY AND 925 TEMPS ON AN UPWARD TREND...WITH INLAND AREAS
NUDGING INTO THE UPPER TEENS CELSIUS.

.FRIDAY AND SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
FAIRLY POTENT SHORTWAVE PROGGD TO MOVE TOWARDS CNTRL/SRN WI BY
FRI AFTN AND CROSS THE AREA FRI NGT/SAT AND EXIT TO THE EAST SAT
EVE. 850 LLJ INCREASES MOIST ADV LATER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH SOME RIGHT REAR DIVERGENCE WITH EXITING JET CORE THROUGH UPR
LAKES REGION. THE 00Z ECMWF IS THE SLOWEST SOLUTION AND LINGERS
QPF LONGER. THE GFS/NAM AND NOW THE ECMWF HAVE ALL COME IN WITH A
MORE NORTHERN SOLUTION WITH RESPECT TO SURFACE LOW TRACK AND
HIGHEST QPF AXIS. THE GEM IS STILL A BIT SOUTH WITH QPF AXIS
STRADDLING THE WI/IL BORDER BUT THIS IS NOW THE OUTLIER SOLUTION
WITH ALL OTHER MODELS MORE OR LESS SHOWING HIGHEST QPF TOTALS
ACROSS CNTRL WI OR INTO THE NRN CWA. HAVE BOOSTED POPS INTO LIKELY
CATEGORY FOR THE FAR WEST FRIDAY AFTN AND CWA WIDE FRI NGT.

.SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
A DRY PERIOD EXPECTED WITH WARM THERMAL RIDGE EXTENDING INTO WI
WITH 500 HEIGHTS RISING WITH TIME. IF SLOWER ECMWF IS RIGHT THEN
THERMAL TROUGH MAY LINGER A BIT ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW THE VERY WARM CONDITIONS ARRIVING MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH 925
TEMPS RAMPING UP WELL INTO THE 20S CELSIUS.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...HAVE KEPT CLOUD DECK AT MVFR LEVELS INTO THE
MORNING HOURS EXCEPT OVER WESTERN PORTION OF FORECAST AREA THAT WILL
SEE SOME BREAKS AND LEVELS RISE TO BETWEEN 3K AND 5K FT. DRY AIR WILL
BRING SCATTERED TO AT TIMES BROKEN DIURNAL CUMULUS TO THE WEST WHILE
EASTERN AREAS WILL SEE THE STRATOCUMULUS DECK RISE TO VFR LEVELS BY
LATE MORNING...WITH BREAKS DEVELOPING BY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...EXPECT LIGHT WINDS TODAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
APPROACHES LAKE MICHIGAN BY EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN A LIGHT
EAST FLOW LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...COLLAR




000
FXUS63 KMKX 260800
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
300 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

THE 250 MB UPPER LOW WILL BECOME CENTERED JUST EAST OF JAMES BAY
CANADA BY EVENING AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
TOWARD THE NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA AREA WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.

THE 850/700 CYCLONIC FLOW WILL WEAKEN WITH WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION
WILL BEGINNING TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE 850/700 MB RH WILL DRY FROM THE WEST...ESPECIALLY AT 700 MB
LEVELS.  THERE WILL STILL BE SOME LINGERING MOISTURE AT 850
MB...ESPECIALLY EAST.

THEREFORE THE STRATOCUMULUS DECK IS EXPECTED TO ERODE SLOWLY OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND BECOME SCATTERED TO BROKEN OVER THE
EAST.

A SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD INTO WISCONSIN WITH LIGHT WINDS.  A LAKE
BREEZE IS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE RIDGE AXIS APPROACHES
LAKE MICHIGAN.

TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN A SLOW MODERATION...ESPECIALLY WEST AREAS
WITH MORE SUNSHINE.

.THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...HIGH PROGS ALL SHOW ELONGATED VORT AXIS
SLIDING THROUGH WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING TAKING HOLD AHEAD OF
APPROACHING PLAINS SHORTWAVE. SURFACE/850 HIGHS WILL BE OFF TO THE
EAST WITH A RENEWED SOUTHERLY FLOW SETTING UP. ALL IN ALL AIRMASS
WILL BE DRY AND 925 TEMPS ON AN UPWARD TREND...WITH INLAND AREAS
NUDGING INTO THE UPPER TEENS CELSIUS.

.FRIDAY AND SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
FAIRLY POTENT SHORTWAVE PROGGD TO MOVE TOWARDS CNTRL/SRN WI BY
FRI AFTN AND CROSS THE AREA FRI NGT/SAT AND EXIT TO THE EAST SAT
EVE. 850 LLJ INCREASES MOIST ADV LATER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH SOME RIGHT REAR DIVERGENCE WITH EXITING JET CORE THROUGH UPR
LAKES REGION. THE 00Z ECMWF IS THE SLOWEST SOLUTION AND LINGERS
QPF LONGER. THE GFS/NAM AND NOW THE ECMWF HAVE ALL COME IN WITH A
MORE NORTHERN SOLUTION WITH RESPECT TO SURFACE LOW TRACK AND
HIGHEST QPF AXIS. THE GEM IS STILL A BIT SOUTH WITH QPF AXIS
STRADDLING THE WI/IL BORDER BUT THIS IS NOW THE OUTLIER SOLUTION
WITH ALL OTHER MODELS MORE OR LESS SHOWING HIGHEST QPF TOTALS
ACROSS CNTRL WI OR INTO THE NRN CWA. HAVE BOOSTED POPS INTO LIKELY
CATEGORY FOR THE FAR WEST FRIDAY AFTN AND CWA WIDE FRI NGT.

.SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
A DRY PERIOD EXPECTED WITH WARM THERMAL RIDGE EXTENDING INTO WI
WITH 500 HEIGHTS RISING WITH TIME. IF SLOWER ECMWF IS RIGHT THEN
THERMAL TROUGH MAY LINGER A BIT ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW THE VERY WARM CONDITIONS ARRIVING MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH 925
TEMPS RAMPING UP WELL INTO THE 20S CELSIUS.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...HAVE KEPT CLOUD DECK AT MVFR LEVELS INTO THE
MORNING HOURS EXCEPT OVER WESTERN PORTION OF FORECAST AREA THAT WILL
SEE SOME BREAKS AND LEVELS RISE TO BETWEEN 3K AND 5K FT. DRY AIR WILL
BRING SCATTERED TO AT TIMES BROKEN DIURNAL CUMULUS TO THE WEST WHILE
EASTERN AREAS WILL SEE THE STRATOCUMULUS DECK RISE TO VFR LEVELS BY
LATE MORNING...WITH BREAKS DEVELOPING BY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...EXPECT LIGHT WINDS TODAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
APPROACHES LAKE MICHIGAN BY EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN A LIGHT
EAST FLOW LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...COLLAR




000
FXUS63 KMKX 260800
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
300 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

THE 250 MB UPPER LOW WILL BECOME CENTERED JUST EAST OF JAMES BAY
CANADA BY EVENING AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
TOWARD THE NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA AREA WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.

THE 850/700 CYCLONIC FLOW WILL WEAKEN WITH WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION
WILL BEGINNING TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE 850/700 MB RH WILL DRY FROM THE WEST...ESPECIALLY AT 700 MB
LEVELS.  THERE WILL STILL BE SOME LINGERING MOISTURE AT 850
MB...ESPECIALLY EAST.

THEREFORE THE STRATOCUMULUS DECK IS EXPECTED TO ERODE SLOWLY OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND BECOME SCATTERED TO BROKEN OVER THE
EAST.

A SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD INTO WISCONSIN WITH LIGHT WINDS.  A LAKE
BREEZE IS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE RIDGE AXIS APPROACHES
LAKE MICHIGAN.

TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN A SLOW MODERATION...ESPECIALLY WEST AREAS
WITH MORE SUNSHINE.

.THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...HIGH PROGS ALL SHOW ELONGATED VORT AXIS
SLIDING THROUGH WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING TAKING HOLD AHEAD OF
APPROACHING PLAINS SHORTWAVE. SURFACE/850 HIGHS WILL BE OFF TO THE
EAST WITH A RENEWED SOUTHERLY FLOW SETTING UP. ALL IN ALL AIRMASS
WILL BE DRY AND 925 TEMPS ON AN UPWARD TREND...WITH INLAND AREAS
NUDGING INTO THE UPPER TEENS CELSIUS.

.FRIDAY AND SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
FAIRLY POTENT SHORTWAVE PROGGD TO MOVE TOWARDS CNTRL/SRN WI BY
FRI AFTN AND CROSS THE AREA FRI NGT/SAT AND EXIT TO THE EAST SAT
EVE. 850 LLJ INCREASES MOIST ADV LATER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH SOME RIGHT REAR DIVERGENCE WITH EXITING JET CORE THROUGH UPR
LAKES REGION. THE 00Z ECMWF IS THE SLOWEST SOLUTION AND LINGERS
QPF LONGER. THE GFS/NAM AND NOW THE ECMWF HAVE ALL COME IN WITH A
MORE NORTHERN SOLUTION WITH RESPECT TO SURFACE LOW TRACK AND
HIGHEST QPF AXIS. THE GEM IS STILL A BIT SOUTH WITH QPF AXIS
STRADDLING THE WI/IL BORDER BUT THIS IS NOW THE OUTLIER SOLUTION
WITH ALL OTHER MODELS MORE OR LESS SHOWING HIGHEST QPF TOTALS
ACROSS CNTRL WI OR INTO THE NRN CWA. HAVE BOOSTED POPS INTO LIKELY
CATEGORY FOR THE FAR WEST FRIDAY AFTN AND CWA WIDE FRI NGT.

.SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
A DRY PERIOD EXPECTED WITH WARM THERMAL RIDGE EXTENDING INTO WI
WITH 500 HEIGHTS RISING WITH TIME. IF SLOWER ECMWF IS RIGHT THEN
THERMAL TROUGH MAY LINGER A BIT ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW THE VERY WARM CONDITIONS ARRIVING MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH 925
TEMPS RAMPING UP WELL INTO THE 20S CELSIUS.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...HAVE KEPT CLOUD DECK AT MVFR LEVELS INTO THE
MORNING HOURS EXCEPT OVER WESTERN PORTION OF FORECAST AREA THAT WILL
SEE SOME BREAKS AND LEVELS RISE TO BETWEEN 3K AND 5K FT. DRY AIR WILL
BRING SCATTERED TO AT TIMES BROKEN DIURNAL CUMULUS TO THE WEST WHILE
EASTERN AREAS WILL SEE THE STRATOCUMULUS DECK RISE TO VFR LEVELS BY
LATE MORNING...WITH BREAKS DEVELOPING BY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...EXPECT LIGHT WINDS TODAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
APPROACHES LAKE MICHIGAN BY EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN A LIGHT
EAST FLOW LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...COLLAR





000
FXUS63 KMKX 260800
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
300 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

THE 250 MB UPPER LOW WILL BECOME CENTERED JUST EAST OF JAMES BAY
CANADA BY EVENING AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
TOWARD THE NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA AREA WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.

THE 850/700 CYCLONIC FLOW WILL WEAKEN WITH WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION
WILL BEGINNING TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE 850/700 MB RH WILL DRY FROM THE WEST...ESPECIALLY AT 700 MB
LEVELS.  THERE WILL STILL BE SOME LINGERING MOISTURE AT 850
MB...ESPECIALLY EAST.

THEREFORE THE STRATOCUMULUS DECK IS EXPECTED TO ERODE SLOWLY OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND BECOME SCATTERED TO BROKEN OVER THE
EAST.

A SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD INTO WISCONSIN WITH LIGHT WINDS.  A LAKE
BREEZE IS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE RIDGE AXIS APPROACHES
LAKE MICHIGAN.

TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN A SLOW MODERATION...ESPECIALLY WEST AREAS
WITH MORE SUNSHINE.

.THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...HIGH PROGS ALL SHOW ELONGATED VORT AXIS
SLIDING THROUGH WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING TAKING HOLD AHEAD OF
APPROACHING PLAINS SHORTWAVE. SURFACE/850 HIGHS WILL BE OFF TO THE
EAST WITH A RENEWED SOUTHERLY FLOW SETTING UP. ALL IN ALL AIRMASS
WILL BE DRY AND 925 TEMPS ON AN UPWARD TREND...WITH INLAND AREAS
NUDGING INTO THE UPPER TEENS CELSIUS.

.FRIDAY AND SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
FAIRLY POTENT SHORTWAVE PROGGD TO MOVE TOWARDS CNTRL/SRN WI BY
FRI AFTN AND CROSS THE AREA FRI NGT/SAT AND EXIT TO THE EAST SAT
EVE. 850 LLJ INCREASES MOIST ADV LATER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH SOME RIGHT REAR DIVERGENCE WITH EXITING JET CORE THROUGH UPR
LAKES REGION. THE 00Z ECMWF IS THE SLOWEST SOLUTION AND LINGERS
QPF LONGER. THE GFS/NAM AND NOW THE ECMWF HAVE ALL COME IN WITH A
MORE NORTHERN SOLUTION WITH RESPECT TO SURFACE LOW TRACK AND
HIGHEST QPF AXIS. THE GEM IS STILL A BIT SOUTH WITH QPF AXIS
STRADDLING THE WI/IL BORDER BUT THIS IS NOW THE OUTLIER SOLUTION
WITH ALL OTHER MODELS MORE OR LESS SHOWING HIGHEST QPF TOTALS
ACROSS CNTRL WI OR INTO THE NRN CWA. HAVE BOOSTED POPS INTO LIKELY
CATEGORY FOR THE FAR WEST FRIDAY AFTN AND CWA WIDE FRI NGT.

.SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
A DRY PERIOD EXPECTED WITH WARM THERMAL RIDGE EXTENDING INTO WI
WITH 500 HEIGHTS RISING WITH TIME. IF SLOWER ECMWF IS RIGHT THEN
THERMAL TROUGH MAY LINGER A BIT ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW THE VERY WARM CONDITIONS ARRIVING MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH 925
TEMPS RAMPING UP WELL INTO THE 20S CELSIUS.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...HAVE KEPT CLOUD DECK AT MVFR LEVELS INTO THE
MORNING HOURS EXCEPT OVER WESTERN PORTION OF FORECAST AREA THAT WILL
SEE SOME BREAKS AND LEVELS RISE TO BETWEEN 3K AND 5K FT. DRY AIR WILL
BRING SCATTERED TO AT TIMES BROKEN DIURNAL CUMULUS TO THE WEST WHILE
EASTERN AREAS WILL SEE THE STRATOCUMULUS DECK RISE TO VFR LEVELS BY
LATE MORNING...WITH BREAKS DEVELOPING BY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...EXPECT LIGHT WINDS TODAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
APPROACHES LAKE MICHIGAN BY EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN A LIGHT
EAST FLOW LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...COLLAR





000
FXUS63 KMKX 260450 AAB
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1150 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.UPDATED AVIATION/06Z TAFS...

HAVE KEPT CLOUD DECK AT MVFR LEVELS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT EXCEPT
OVER WESTERN PORTION OF FORECAST AREA THAT WILL SEE SOME BREAKS
AND LEVELS RISE TO BETWEEN 3K AND 5K FT AFTER 08Z. DRY AIR WILL
BRING SCATTERED TO AT TIMES BROKEN DIURNAL CU TO THE WEST WHILE
EASTERN AREAS WILL SEE DECK RISE TO VFR LEVELS BY MID TO LATE
MORNING...WITH BREAKS DEVELOPING BY AFTERNOON.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 901 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015/

UPDATE...

HAVE SLOWED THE EASTWARD PROGRESS OF CLOUD DECK PER LATEST HRRR
925-850MB FORECAST AND ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES A LITTLE AS WELL
WITH MORE CLOUD COVER LINGERING INTO THE OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY
IN THE EAST. DRIER AIR ERODING THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE DECK WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO COOL IN THE WEST.

AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...

HAVE KEPT STRATOCU DECK OVER EASTERN SITES THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...THOUGH EXPECT THEM TO LIFT TO VFR LEVELS BY...OR
SHORTLY AFTER 06Z. CLOUD COVER WILL BE MORE SCATTERED OVER THE
WEST WEDNESDAY...THOUGH EXPECT BROKEN DIURNAL VFR CU DECK TO
LINGER OVER THE EAST AS MOISTURE AND ONE MORE POCKET OF
RELATIVELY COOL 850 MB TEMPS ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA. LOOK FOR
SCATTERED CLOUD COVER BY WEDNESDAY EVENING OVER ALL OF SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 216 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015/

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

THE UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN ONTARIO AND THE CORRESPONDING LOW
PRESSURE NEAR JAMES BAY WILL FINALLY SHIFT EAST TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. A LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL NUDGE INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND A SURFACE HIGH WILL SPREAD OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
DURING THIS TIME. THE QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL CONTINUE BUT
THERE WILL BE NOTICEABLY FEWER CLOUDS AND THUS WARMING TEMPERATURES.

1000-850MB RH WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...
ALTHOUGH THERE IS A LOWERING TREND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. I AM AT LEAST
EXPECTING THE CLOUDS TO SCATTER OUT OVERNIGHT...IF NOT CLEAR FOR A
TIME. THEN WE WILL HAVE MORE SCATTERED TO BROKEN DIURNAL CUMULUS
CLOUDS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WI ON WEDNESDAY.

DIMINISHING CLOUDS TONIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE
LOWER 50S INLAND FROM LAKE MICHIGAN. A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE
WEDNESDAY WILL LEAD TO HIGHS AROUND 70 NEAR THE LAKE AND POSSIBLY
MID 70S WELL INLAND. LIGHTER WINDS WILL ALLOW A LAKE BREEZE TO
DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL BE IN CONTROL DURING THIS PERIOD. LIGHT
WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANOTHER COOL NIGHT WED NIGHT AND A RATHER
PLEASANT DAY ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS PUSHING INTO THE 70S.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON THE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE PUSHING INTO
THE PLAINS AND TRIGGERING SFC CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS ON THURSDAY. THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF/CANADIAN THEN ALL HAVE
DIFFERENT IDEAS ON THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE LOW AS IT HEADS
EAST TOWARD OUR AREA. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT FROM
RUN TO RUN...AS HAS THE CANADIAN. THEY BOTH HAVE A WEAKER AND MORE
SOUTHERN TRACK. MEANWHILE...THE NAM BLOWS UP A RATHER INTENSE
SYSTEM WITH THE MOST NORTHERN TRACK AND VERY COPIOUS PRECIP
UPSTREAM...SLOWLY WEAKENING AS IT MOVES ACROSS WISCONSIN. THE GFS
IS A BIT OF A BLEND BETWEEN THE TWO CAMPS. THE NAM LOOKS TO BE
SUFFERING ITS USUAL HIGH MOISTURE BIAS...SO BASICALLY GOING TO
THROW THAT OUT. THE RESULTANT FEEDBACK CAN/T BE TRUSTED.
OUR PREFERRED MODEL BLEND LOOKS TO TAKE A DECENT BLEND OF THE EC
AND THE GFS WITH RESPECT TO POPS. BEST CHANCE WILL BE NORTHWEST
OF MADISON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THEN THE SYSTEM WEAKENS WITH TIME AND
POPS GRADUALLY DIMINISH. BUT THE SYSTEM WILL BE A SLOW MOVER AND
WE/LL KEEP POPS IN THROUGH SATURDAY. THERE IS LITTLE TO NO
CAPE...SO WILL CARRY JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER AT THIS
POINT. HOPEFULLY WE CAN GET BENEFICIAL RAIN OUT THIS THING.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR SUNDAY THEN SLIDES SOUTHEAST WITH A TROF
DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THAT TROF WILL
SIT OUT THERE FOR A FEW DAYS...RESULTING IN A STRENGTHENING
THERMAL RIDGE THAT WILL LEAN IN HERE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MANY SCHOOLS START ON SEP 1ST AND RIGHT ON SCHEDULE WE SHOULD SEE
TEMPS WARM INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S. SOME OF THE LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE SHOWS HIGHS POSSIBLY HITTING 90. THAT WARM PATTERN LOOKS
PERSISTENT AND MAY LAST THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

LOOK FOR CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY SCATTER OUT AND DIMINISH FROM WEST TO
EAST LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. EXPECT SCT TO BKN DIURNAL
CUMULUS CLOUDS ON WEDNESDAY THAT SHOULD BE VFR LEVEL. ALSO EXPECT
LIGHTER NNW WINDS AND A LAKE BREEZE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...REM
TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MRC
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...DAVIS





000
FXUS63 KMKX 260450 AAB
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1150 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.UPDATED AVIATION/06Z TAFS...

HAVE KEPT CLOUD DECK AT MVFR LEVELS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT EXCEPT
OVER WESTERN PORTION OF FORECAST AREA THAT WILL SEE SOME BREAKS
AND LEVELS RISE TO BETWEEN 3K AND 5K FT AFTER 08Z. DRY AIR WILL
BRING SCATTERED TO AT TIMES BROKEN DIURNAL CU TO THE WEST WHILE
EASTERN AREAS WILL SEE DECK RISE TO VFR LEVELS BY MID TO LATE
MORNING...WITH BREAKS DEVELOPING BY AFTERNOON.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 901 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015/

UPDATE...

HAVE SLOWED THE EASTWARD PROGRESS OF CLOUD DECK PER LATEST HRRR
925-850MB FORECAST AND ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES A LITTLE AS WELL
WITH MORE CLOUD COVER LINGERING INTO THE OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY
IN THE EAST. DRIER AIR ERODING THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE DECK WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO COOL IN THE WEST.

AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...

HAVE KEPT STRATOCU DECK OVER EASTERN SITES THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...THOUGH EXPECT THEM TO LIFT TO VFR LEVELS BY...OR
SHORTLY AFTER 06Z. CLOUD COVER WILL BE MORE SCATTERED OVER THE
WEST WEDNESDAY...THOUGH EXPECT BROKEN DIURNAL VFR CU DECK TO
LINGER OVER THE EAST AS MOISTURE AND ONE MORE POCKET OF
RELATIVELY COOL 850 MB TEMPS ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA. LOOK FOR
SCATTERED CLOUD COVER BY WEDNESDAY EVENING OVER ALL OF SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 216 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015/

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

THE UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN ONTARIO AND THE CORRESPONDING LOW
PRESSURE NEAR JAMES BAY WILL FINALLY SHIFT EAST TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. A LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL NUDGE INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND A SURFACE HIGH WILL SPREAD OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
DURING THIS TIME. THE QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL CONTINUE BUT
THERE WILL BE NOTICEABLY FEWER CLOUDS AND THUS WARMING TEMPERATURES.

1000-850MB RH WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...
ALTHOUGH THERE IS A LOWERING TREND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. I AM AT LEAST
EXPECTING THE CLOUDS TO SCATTER OUT OVERNIGHT...IF NOT CLEAR FOR A
TIME. THEN WE WILL HAVE MORE SCATTERED TO BROKEN DIURNAL CUMULUS
CLOUDS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WI ON WEDNESDAY.

DIMINISHING CLOUDS TONIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE
LOWER 50S INLAND FROM LAKE MICHIGAN. A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE
WEDNESDAY WILL LEAD TO HIGHS AROUND 70 NEAR THE LAKE AND POSSIBLY
MID 70S WELL INLAND. LIGHTER WINDS WILL ALLOW A LAKE BREEZE TO
DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL BE IN CONTROL DURING THIS PERIOD. LIGHT
WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANOTHER COOL NIGHT WED NIGHT AND A RATHER
PLEASANT DAY ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS PUSHING INTO THE 70S.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON THE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE PUSHING INTO
THE PLAINS AND TRIGGERING SFC CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS ON THURSDAY. THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF/CANADIAN THEN ALL HAVE
DIFFERENT IDEAS ON THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE LOW AS IT HEADS
EAST TOWARD OUR AREA. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT FROM
RUN TO RUN...AS HAS THE CANADIAN. THEY BOTH HAVE A WEAKER AND MORE
SOUTHERN TRACK. MEANWHILE...THE NAM BLOWS UP A RATHER INTENSE
SYSTEM WITH THE MOST NORTHERN TRACK AND VERY COPIOUS PRECIP
UPSTREAM...SLOWLY WEAKENING AS IT MOVES ACROSS WISCONSIN. THE GFS
IS A BIT OF A BLEND BETWEEN THE TWO CAMPS. THE NAM LOOKS TO BE
SUFFERING ITS USUAL HIGH MOISTURE BIAS...SO BASICALLY GOING TO
THROW THAT OUT. THE RESULTANT FEEDBACK CAN/T BE TRUSTED.
OUR PREFERRED MODEL BLEND LOOKS TO TAKE A DECENT BLEND OF THE EC
AND THE GFS WITH RESPECT TO POPS. BEST CHANCE WILL BE NORTHWEST
OF MADISON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THEN THE SYSTEM WEAKENS WITH TIME AND
POPS GRADUALLY DIMINISH. BUT THE SYSTEM WILL BE A SLOW MOVER AND
WE/LL KEEP POPS IN THROUGH SATURDAY. THERE IS LITTLE TO NO
CAPE...SO WILL CARRY JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER AT THIS
POINT. HOPEFULLY WE CAN GET BENEFICIAL RAIN OUT THIS THING.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR SUNDAY THEN SLIDES SOUTHEAST WITH A TROF
DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THAT TROF WILL
SIT OUT THERE FOR A FEW DAYS...RESULTING IN A STRENGTHENING
THERMAL RIDGE THAT WILL LEAN IN HERE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MANY SCHOOLS START ON SEP 1ST AND RIGHT ON SCHEDULE WE SHOULD SEE
TEMPS WARM INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S. SOME OF THE LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE SHOWS HIGHS POSSIBLY HITTING 90. THAT WARM PATTERN LOOKS
PERSISTENT AND MAY LAST THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

LOOK FOR CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY SCATTER OUT AND DIMINISH FROM WEST TO
EAST LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. EXPECT SCT TO BKN DIURNAL
CUMULUS CLOUDS ON WEDNESDAY THAT SHOULD BE VFR LEVEL. ALSO EXPECT
LIGHTER NNW WINDS AND A LAKE BREEZE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...REM
TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MRC
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...DAVIS




000
FXUS63 KMKX 260450 AAB
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1150 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.UPDATED AVIATION/06Z TAFS...

HAVE KEPT CLOUD DECK AT MVFR LEVELS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT EXCEPT
OVER WESTERN PORTION OF FORECAST AREA THAT WILL SEE SOME BREAKS
AND LEVELS RISE TO BETWEEN 3K AND 5K FT AFTER 08Z. DRY AIR WILL
BRING SCATTERED TO AT TIMES BROKEN DIURNAL CU TO THE WEST WHILE
EASTERN AREAS WILL SEE DECK RISE TO VFR LEVELS BY MID TO LATE
MORNING...WITH BREAKS DEVELOPING BY AFTERNOON.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 901 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015/

UPDATE...

HAVE SLOWED THE EASTWARD PROGRESS OF CLOUD DECK PER LATEST HRRR
925-850MB FORECAST AND ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES A LITTLE AS WELL
WITH MORE CLOUD COVER LINGERING INTO THE OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY
IN THE EAST. DRIER AIR ERODING THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE DECK WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO COOL IN THE WEST.

AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...

HAVE KEPT STRATOCU DECK OVER EASTERN SITES THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...THOUGH EXPECT THEM TO LIFT TO VFR LEVELS BY...OR
SHORTLY AFTER 06Z. CLOUD COVER WILL BE MORE SCATTERED OVER THE
WEST WEDNESDAY...THOUGH EXPECT BROKEN DIURNAL VFR CU DECK TO
LINGER OVER THE EAST AS MOISTURE AND ONE MORE POCKET OF
RELATIVELY COOL 850 MB TEMPS ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA. LOOK FOR
SCATTERED CLOUD COVER BY WEDNESDAY EVENING OVER ALL OF SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 216 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015/

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

THE UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN ONTARIO AND THE CORRESPONDING LOW
PRESSURE NEAR JAMES BAY WILL FINALLY SHIFT EAST TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. A LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL NUDGE INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND A SURFACE HIGH WILL SPREAD OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
DURING THIS TIME. THE QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL CONTINUE BUT
THERE WILL BE NOTICEABLY FEWER CLOUDS AND THUS WARMING TEMPERATURES.

1000-850MB RH WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...
ALTHOUGH THERE IS A LOWERING TREND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. I AM AT LEAST
EXPECTING THE CLOUDS TO SCATTER OUT OVERNIGHT...IF NOT CLEAR FOR A
TIME. THEN WE WILL HAVE MORE SCATTERED TO BROKEN DIURNAL CUMULUS
CLOUDS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WI ON WEDNESDAY.

DIMINISHING CLOUDS TONIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE
LOWER 50S INLAND FROM LAKE MICHIGAN. A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE
WEDNESDAY WILL LEAD TO HIGHS AROUND 70 NEAR THE LAKE AND POSSIBLY
MID 70S WELL INLAND. LIGHTER WINDS WILL ALLOW A LAKE BREEZE TO
DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL BE IN CONTROL DURING THIS PERIOD. LIGHT
WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANOTHER COOL NIGHT WED NIGHT AND A RATHER
PLEASANT DAY ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS PUSHING INTO THE 70S.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON THE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE PUSHING INTO
THE PLAINS AND TRIGGERING SFC CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS ON THURSDAY. THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF/CANADIAN THEN ALL HAVE
DIFFERENT IDEAS ON THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE LOW AS IT HEADS
EAST TOWARD OUR AREA. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT FROM
RUN TO RUN...AS HAS THE CANADIAN. THEY BOTH HAVE A WEAKER AND MORE
SOUTHERN TRACK. MEANWHILE...THE NAM BLOWS UP A RATHER INTENSE
SYSTEM WITH THE MOST NORTHERN TRACK AND VERY COPIOUS PRECIP
UPSTREAM...SLOWLY WEAKENING AS IT MOVES ACROSS WISCONSIN. THE GFS
IS A BIT OF A BLEND BETWEEN THE TWO CAMPS. THE NAM LOOKS TO BE
SUFFERING ITS USUAL HIGH MOISTURE BIAS...SO BASICALLY GOING TO
THROW THAT OUT. THE RESULTANT FEEDBACK CAN/T BE TRUSTED.
OUR PREFERRED MODEL BLEND LOOKS TO TAKE A DECENT BLEND OF THE EC
AND THE GFS WITH RESPECT TO POPS. BEST CHANCE WILL BE NORTHWEST
OF MADISON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THEN THE SYSTEM WEAKENS WITH TIME AND
POPS GRADUALLY DIMINISH. BUT THE SYSTEM WILL BE A SLOW MOVER AND
WE/LL KEEP POPS IN THROUGH SATURDAY. THERE IS LITTLE TO NO
CAPE...SO WILL CARRY JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER AT THIS
POINT. HOPEFULLY WE CAN GET BENEFICIAL RAIN OUT THIS THING.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR SUNDAY THEN SLIDES SOUTHEAST WITH A TROF
DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THAT TROF WILL
SIT OUT THERE FOR A FEW DAYS...RESULTING IN A STRENGTHENING
THERMAL RIDGE THAT WILL LEAN IN HERE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MANY SCHOOLS START ON SEP 1ST AND RIGHT ON SCHEDULE WE SHOULD SEE
TEMPS WARM INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S. SOME OF THE LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE SHOWS HIGHS POSSIBLY HITTING 90. THAT WARM PATTERN LOOKS
PERSISTENT AND MAY LAST THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

LOOK FOR CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY SCATTER OUT AND DIMINISH FROM WEST TO
EAST LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. EXPECT SCT TO BKN DIURNAL
CUMULUS CLOUDS ON WEDNESDAY THAT SHOULD BE VFR LEVEL. ALSO EXPECT
LIGHTER NNW WINDS AND A LAKE BREEZE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...REM
TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MRC
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...DAVIS





000
FXUS63 KMKX 260450 AAB
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1150 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.UPDATED AVIATION/06Z TAFS...

HAVE KEPT CLOUD DECK AT MVFR LEVELS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT EXCEPT
OVER WESTERN PORTION OF FORECAST AREA THAT WILL SEE SOME BREAKS
AND LEVELS RISE TO BETWEEN 3K AND 5K FT AFTER 08Z. DRY AIR WILL
BRING SCATTERED TO AT TIMES BROKEN DIURNAL CU TO THE WEST WHILE
EASTERN AREAS WILL SEE DECK RISE TO VFR LEVELS BY MID TO LATE
MORNING...WITH BREAKS DEVELOPING BY AFTERNOON.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 901 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015/

UPDATE...

HAVE SLOWED THE EASTWARD PROGRESS OF CLOUD DECK PER LATEST HRRR
925-850MB FORECAST AND ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES A LITTLE AS WELL
WITH MORE CLOUD COVER LINGERING INTO THE OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY
IN THE EAST. DRIER AIR ERODING THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE DECK WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO COOL IN THE WEST.

AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...

HAVE KEPT STRATOCU DECK OVER EASTERN SITES THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...THOUGH EXPECT THEM TO LIFT TO VFR LEVELS BY...OR
SHORTLY AFTER 06Z. CLOUD COVER WILL BE MORE SCATTERED OVER THE
WEST WEDNESDAY...THOUGH EXPECT BROKEN DIURNAL VFR CU DECK TO
LINGER OVER THE EAST AS MOISTURE AND ONE MORE POCKET OF
RELATIVELY COOL 850 MB TEMPS ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA. LOOK FOR
SCATTERED CLOUD COVER BY WEDNESDAY EVENING OVER ALL OF SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 216 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015/

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

THE UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN ONTARIO AND THE CORRESPONDING LOW
PRESSURE NEAR JAMES BAY WILL FINALLY SHIFT EAST TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. A LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL NUDGE INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND A SURFACE HIGH WILL SPREAD OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
DURING THIS TIME. THE QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL CONTINUE BUT
THERE WILL BE NOTICEABLY FEWER CLOUDS AND THUS WARMING TEMPERATURES.

1000-850MB RH WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...
ALTHOUGH THERE IS A LOWERING TREND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. I AM AT LEAST
EXPECTING THE CLOUDS TO SCATTER OUT OVERNIGHT...IF NOT CLEAR FOR A
TIME. THEN WE WILL HAVE MORE SCATTERED TO BROKEN DIURNAL CUMULUS
CLOUDS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WI ON WEDNESDAY.

DIMINISHING CLOUDS TONIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE
LOWER 50S INLAND FROM LAKE MICHIGAN. A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE
WEDNESDAY WILL LEAD TO HIGHS AROUND 70 NEAR THE LAKE AND POSSIBLY
MID 70S WELL INLAND. LIGHTER WINDS WILL ALLOW A LAKE BREEZE TO
DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL BE IN CONTROL DURING THIS PERIOD. LIGHT
WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANOTHER COOL NIGHT WED NIGHT AND A RATHER
PLEASANT DAY ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS PUSHING INTO THE 70S.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON THE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE PUSHING INTO
THE PLAINS AND TRIGGERING SFC CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS ON THURSDAY. THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF/CANADIAN THEN ALL HAVE
DIFFERENT IDEAS ON THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE LOW AS IT HEADS
EAST TOWARD OUR AREA. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT FROM
RUN TO RUN...AS HAS THE CANADIAN. THEY BOTH HAVE A WEAKER AND MORE
SOUTHERN TRACK. MEANWHILE...THE NAM BLOWS UP A RATHER INTENSE
SYSTEM WITH THE MOST NORTHERN TRACK AND VERY COPIOUS PRECIP
UPSTREAM...SLOWLY WEAKENING AS IT MOVES ACROSS WISCONSIN. THE GFS
IS A BIT OF A BLEND BETWEEN THE TWO CAMPS. THE NAM LOOKS TO BE
SUFFERING ITS USUAL HIGH MOISTURE BIAS...SO BASICALLY GOING TO
THROW THAT OUT. THE RESULTANT FEEDBACK CAN/T BE TRUSTED.
OUR PREFERRED MODEL BLEND LOOKS TO TAKE A DECENT BLEND OF THE EC
AND THE GFS WITH RESPECT TO POPS. BEST CHANCE WILL BE NORTHWEST
OF MADISON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THEN THE SYSTEM WEAKENS WITH TIME AND
POPS GRADUALLY DIMINISH. BUT THE SYSTEM WILL BE A SLOW MOVER AND
WE/LL KEEP POPS IN THROUGH SATURDAY. THERE IS LITTLE TO NO
CAPE...SO WILL CARRY JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER AT THIS
POINT. HOPEFULLY WE CAN GET BENEFICIAL RAIN OUT THIS THING.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR SUNDAY THEN SLIDES SOUTHEAST WITH A TROF
DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THAT TROF WILL
SIT OUT THERE FOR A FEW DAYS...RESULTING IN A STRENGTHENING
THERMAL RIDGE THAT WILL LEAN IN HERE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MANY SCHOOLS START ON SEP 1ST AND RIGHT ON SCHEDULE WE SHOULD SEE
TEMPS WARM INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S. SOME OF THE LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE SHOWS HIGHS POSSIBLY HITTING 90. THAT WARM PATTERN LOOKS
PERSISTENT AND MAY LAST THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

LOOK FOR CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY SCATTER OUT AND DIMINISH FROM WEST TO
EAST LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. EXPECT SCT TO BKN DIURNAL
CUMULUS CLOUDS ON WEDNESDAY THAT SHOULD BE VFR LEVEL. ALSO EXPECT
LIGHTER NNW WINDS AND A LAKE BREEZE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...REM
TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MRC
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...DAVIS




000
FXUS63 KMKX 260201 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
901 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.UPDATE...

HAVE SLOWED THE EASTWARD PROGRESS OF CLOUD DECK PER LATEST HRRR
925-850MB FORECAST AND ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES A LITTLE AS WELL
WITH MORE CLOUD COVER LINGERING INTO THE OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY
IN THE EAST. DRIER AIR ERODING THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE DECK WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO COOL IN THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...

HAVE KEPT STRATOCU DECK OVER EASTERN SITES THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...THOUGH EXPECT THEM TO LIFT TO VFR LEVELS BY...OR
SHORTLY AFTER 06Z. CLOUD COVER WILL BE MORE SCATTERED OVER THE
WEST WEDNESDAY...THOUGH EXPECT BROKEN DIURNAL VFR CU DECK TO
LINGER OVER THE EAST AS MOISTURE AND ONE MORE POCKET OF
RELATIVELY COOL 850 MB TEMPS ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA. LOOK FOR
SCATTERED CLOUD COVER BY WEDNESDAY EVENING OVER ALL OF SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 216 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015/

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

THE UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN ONTARIO AND THE CORRESPONDING LOW
PRESSURE NEAR JAMES BAY WILL FINALLY SHIFT EAST TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. A LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL NUDGE INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND A SURFACE HIGH WILL SPREAD OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
DURING THIS TIME. THE QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL CONTINUE BUT
THERE WILL BE NOTICEABLY FEWER CLOUDS AND THUS WARMING TEMPERATURES.

1000-850MB RH WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...
ALTHOUGH THERE IS A LOWERING TREND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. I AM AT LEAST
EXPECTING THE CLOUDS TO SCATTER OUT OVERNIGHT...IF NOT CLEAR FOR A
TIME. THEN WE WILL HAVE MORE SCATTERED TO BROKEN DIURNAL CUMULUS
CLOUDS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WI ON WEDNESDAY.

DIMINISHING CLOUDS TONIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE
LOWER 50S INLAND FROM LAKE MICHIGAN. A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE
WEDNESDAY WILL LEAD TO HIGHS AROUND 70 NEAR THE LAKE AND POSSIBLY
MID 70S WELL INLAND. LIGHTER WINDS WILL ALLOW A LAKE BREEZE TO
DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL BE IN CONTROL DURING THIS PERIOD. LIGHT
WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANOTHER COOL NIGHT WED NIGHT AND A RATHER
PLEASANT DAY ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS PUSHING INTO THE 70S.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON THE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE PUSHING INTO
THE PLAINS AND TRIGGERING SFC CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS ON THURSDAY. THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF/CANADIAN THEN ALL HAVE
DIFFERENT IDEAS ON THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE LOW AS IT HEADS
EAST TOWARD OUR AREA. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT FROM
RUN TO RUN...AS HAS THE CANADIAN. THEY BOTH HAVE A WEAKER AND MORE
SOUTHERN TRACK. MEANWHILE...THE NAM BLOWS UP A RATHER INTENSE
SYSTEM WITH THE MOST NORTHERN TRACK AND VERY COPIOUS PRECIP
UPSTREAM...SLOWLY WEAKENING AS IT MOVES ACROSS WISCONSIN. THE GFS
IS A BIT OF A BLEND BETWEEN THE TWO CAMPS. THE NAM LOOKS TO BE
SUFFERING ITS USUAL HIGH MOISTURE BIAS...SO BASICALLY GOING TO
THROW THAT OUT. THE RESULTANT FEEDBACK CAN/T BE TRUSTED.
OUR PREFERRED MODEL BLEND LOOKS TO TAKE A DECENT BLEND OF THE EC
AND THE GFS WITH RESPECT TO POPS. BEST CHANCE WILL BE NORTHWEST
OF MADISON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THEN THE SYSTEM WEAKENS WITH TIME AND
POPS GRADUALLY DIMINISH. BUT THE SYSTEM WILL BE A SLOW MOVER AND
WE/LL KEEP POPS IN THROUGH SATURDAY. THERE IS LITTLE TO NO
CAPE...SO WILL CARRY JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER AT THIS
POINT. HOPEFULLY WE CAN GET BENEFICIAL RAIN OUT THIS THING.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR SUNDAY THEN SLIDES SOUTHEAST WITH A TROF
DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THAT TROF WILL
SIT OUT THERE FOR A FEW DAYS...RESULTING IN A STRENGTHENING
THERMAL RIDGE THAT WILL LEAN IN HERE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MANY SCHOOLS START ON SEP 1ST AND RIGHT ON SCHEDULE WE SHOULD SEE
TEMPS WARM INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S. SOME OF THE LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE SHOWS HIGHS POSSIBLY HITTING 90. THAT WARM PATTERN LOOKS
PERSISTENT AND MAY LAST THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

LOOK FOR CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY SCATTER OUT AND DIMINISH FROM WEST TO
EAST LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. EXPECT SCT TO BKN DIURNAL
CUMULUS CLOUDS ON WEDNESDAY THAT SHOULD BE VFR LEVEL. ALSO EXPECT
LIGHTER NNW WINDS AND A LAKE BREEZE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...REM
TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MRC
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...DAVIS





000
FXUS63 KMKX 260201 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
901 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.UPDATE...

HAVE SLOWED THE EASTWARD PROGRESS OF CLOUD DECK PER LATEST HRRR
925-850MB FORECAST AND ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES A LITTLE AS WELL
WITH MORE CLOUD COVER LINGERING INTO THE OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY
IN THE EAST. DRIER AIR ERODING THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE DECK WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO COOL IN THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...

HAVE KEPT STRATOCU DECK OVER EASTERN SITES THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...THOUGH EXPECT THEM TO LIFT TO VFR LEVELS BY...OR
SHORTLY AFTER 06Z. CLOUD COVER WILL BE MORE SCATTERED OVER THE
WEST WEDNESDAY...THOUGH EXPECT BROKEN DIURNAL VFR CU DECK TO
LINGER OVER THE EAST AS MOISTURE AND ONE MORE POCKET OF
RELATIVELY COOL 850 MB TEMPS ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA. LOOK FOR
SCATTERED CLOUD COVER BY WEDNESDAY EVENING OVER ALL OF SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 216 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015/

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

THE UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN ONTARIO AND THE CORRESPONDING LOW
PRESSURE NEAR JAMES BAY WILL FINALLY SHIFT EAST TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. A LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL NUDGE INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND A SURFACE HIGH WILL SPREAD OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
DURING THIS TIME. THE QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL CONTINUE BUT
THERE WILL BE NOTICEABLY FEWER CLOUDS AND THUS WARMING TEMPERATURES.

1000-850MB RH WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...
ALTHOUGH THERE IS A LOWERING TREND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. I AM AT LEAST
EXPECTING THE CLOUDS TO SCATTER OUT OVERNIGHT...IF NOT CLEAR FOR A
TIME. THEN WE WILL HAVE MORE SCATTERED TO BROKEN DIURNAL CUMULUS
CLOUDS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WI ON WEDNESDAY.

DIMINISHING CLOUDS TONIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE
LOWER 50S INLAND FROM LAKE MICHIGAN. A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE
WEDNESDAY WILL LEAD TO HIGHS AROUND 70 NEAR THE LAKE AND POSSIBLY
MID 70S WELL INLAND. LIGHTER WINDS WILL ALLOW A LAKE BREEZE TO
DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL BE IN CONTROL DURING THIS PERIOD. LIGHT
WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANOTHER COOL NIGHT WED NIGHT AND A RATHER
PLEASANT DAY ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS PUSHING INTO THE 70S.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON THE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE PUSHING INTO
THE PLAINS AND TRIGGERING SFC CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS ON THURSDAY. THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF/CANADIAN THEN ALL HAVE
DIFFERENT IDEAS ON THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE LOW AS IT HEADS
EAST TOWARD OUR AREA. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT FROM
RUN TO RUN...AS HAS THE CANADIAN. THEY BOTH HAVE A WEAKER AND MORE
SOUTHERN TRACK. MEANWHILE...THE NAM BLOWS UP A RATHER INTENSE
SYSTEM WITH THE MOST NORTHERN TRACK AND VERY COPIOUS PRECIP
UPSTREAM...SLOWLY WEAKENING AS IT MOVES ACROSS WISCONSIN. THE GFS
IS A BIT OF A BLEND BETWEEN THE TWO CAMPS. THE NAM LOOKS TO BE
SUFFERING ITS USUAL HIGH MOISTURE BIAS...SO BASICALLY GOING TO
THROW THAT OUT. THE RESULTANT FEEDBACK CAN/T BE TRUSTED.
OUR PREFERRED MODEL BLEND LOOKS TO TAKE A DECENT BLEND OF THE EC
AND THE GFS WITH RESPECT TO POPS. BEST CHANCE WILL BE NORTHWEST
OF MADISON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THEN THE SYSTEM WEAKENS WITH TIME AND
POPS GRADUALLY DIMINISH. BUT THE SYSTEM WILL BE A SLOW MOVER AND
WE/LL KEEP POPS IN THROUGH SATURDAY. THERE IS LITTLE TO NO
CAPE...SO WILL CARRY JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER AT THIS
POINT. HOPEFULLY WE CAN GET BENEFICIAL RAIN OUT THIS THING.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR SUNDAY THEN SLIDES SOUTHEAST WITH A TROF
DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THAT TROF WILL
SIT OUT THERE FOR A FEW DAYS...RESULTING IN A STRENGTHENING
THERMAL RIDGE THAT WILL LEAN IN HERE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MANY SCHOOLS START ON SEP 1ST AND RIGHT ON SCHEDULE WE SHOULD SEE
TEMPS WARM INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S. SOME OF THE LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE SHOWS HIGHS POSSIBLY HITTING 90. THAT WARM PATTERN LOOKS
PERSISTENT AND MAY LAST THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

LOOK FOR CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY SCATTER OUT AND DIMINISH FROM WEST TO
EAST LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. EXPECT SCT TO BKN DIURNAL
CUMULUS CLOUDS ON WEDNESDAY THAT SHOULD BE VFR LEVEL. ALSO EXPECT
LIGHTER NNW WINDS AND A LAKE BREEZE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...REM
TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MRC
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...DAVIS




000
FXUS63 KMKX 260201 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
901 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.UPDATE...

HAVE SLOWED THE EASTWARD PROGRESS OF CLOUD DECK PER LATEST HRRR
925-850MB FORECAST AND ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES A LITTLE AS WELL
WITH MORE CLOUD COVER LINGERING INTO THE OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY
IN THE EAST. DRIER AIR ERODING THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE DECK WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO COOL IN THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...

HAVE KEPT STRATOCU DECK OVER EASTERN SITES THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...THOUGH EXPECT THEM TO LIFT TO VFR LEVELS BY...OR
SHORTLY AFTER 06Z. CLOUD COVER WILL BE MORE SCATTERED OVER THE
WEST WEDNESDAY...THOUGH EXPECT BROKEN DIURNAL VFR CU DECK TO
LINGER OVER THE EAST AS MOISTURE AND ONE MORE POCKET OF
RELATIVELY COOL 850 MB TEMPS ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA. LOOK FOR
SCATTERED CLOUD COVER BY WEDNESDAY EVENING OVER ALL OF SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 216 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015/

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

THE UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN ONTARIO AND THE CORRESPONDING LOW
PRESSURE NEAR JAMES BAY WILL FINALLY SHIFT EAST TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. A LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL NUDGE INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND A SURFACE HIGH WILL SPREAD OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
DURING THIS TIME. THE QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL CONTINUE BUT
THERE WILL BE NOTICEABLY FEWER CLOUDS AND THUS WARMING TEMPERATURES.

1000-850MB RH WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...
ALTHOUGH THERE IS A LOWERING TREND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. I AM AT LEAST
EXPECTING THE CLOUDS TO SCATTER OUT OVERNIGHT...IF NOT CLEAR FOR A
TIME. THEN WE WILL HAVE MORE SCATTERED TO BROKEN DIURNAL CUMULUS
CLOUDS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WI ON WEDNESDAY.

DIMINISHING CLOUDS TONIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE
LOWER 50S INLAND FROM LAKE MICHIGAN. A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE
WEDNESDAY WILL LEAD TO HIGHS AROUND 70 NEAR THE LAKE AND POSSIBLY
MID 70S WELL INLAND. LIGHTER WINDS WILL ALLOW A LAKE BREEZE TO
DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL BE IN CONTROL DURING THIS PERIOD. LIGHT
WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANOTHER COOL NIGHT WED NIGHT AND A RATHER
PLEASANT DAY ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS PUSHING INTO THE 70S.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON THE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE PUSHING INTO
THE PLAINS AND TRIGGERING SFC CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS ON THURSDAY. THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF/CANADIAN THEN ALL HAVE
DIFFERENT IDEAS ON THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE LOW AS IT HEADS
EAST TOWARD OUR AREA. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT FROM
RUN TO RUN...AS HAS THE CANADIAN. THEY BOTH HAVE A WEAKER AND MORE
SOUTHERN TRACK. MEANWHILE...THE NAM BLOWS UP A RATHER INTENSE
SYSTEM WITH THE MOST NORTHERN TRACK AND VERY COPIOUS PRECIP
UPSTREAM...SLOWLY WEAKENING AS IT MOVES ACROSS WISCONSIN. THE GFS
IS A BIT OF A BLEND BETWEEN THE TWO CAMPS. THE NAM LOOKS TO BE
SUFFERING ITS USUAL HIGH MOISTURE BIAS...SO BASICALLY GOING TO
THROW THAT OUT. THE RESULTANT FEEDBACK CAN/T BE TRUSTED.
OUR PREFERRED MODEL BLEND LOOKS TO TAKE A DECENT BLEND OF THE EC
AND THE GFS WITH RESPECT TO POPS. BEST CHANCE WILL BE NORTHWEST
OF MADISON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THEN THE SYSTEM WEAKENS WITH TIME AND
POPS GRADUALLY DIMINISH. BUT THE SYSTEM WILL BE A SLOW MOVER AND
WE/LL KEEP POPS IN THROUGH SATURDAY. THERE IS LITTLE TO NO
CAPE...SO WILL CARRY JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER AT THIS
POINT. HOPEFULLY WE CAN GET BENEFICIAL RAIN OUT THIS THING.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR SUNDAY THEN SLIDES SOUTHEAST WITH A TROF
DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THAT TROF WILL
SIT OUT THERE FOR A FEW DAYS...RESULTING IN A STRENGTHENING
THERMAL RIDGE THAT WILL LEAN IN HERE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MANY SCHOOLS START ON SEP 1ST AND RIGHT ON SCHEDULE WE SHOULD SEE
TEMPS WARM INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S. SOME OF THE LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE SHOWS HIGHS POSSIBLY HITTING 90. THAT WARM PATTERN LOOKS
PERSISTENT AND MAY LAST THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

LOOK FOR CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY SCATTER OUT AND DIMINISH FROM WEST TO
EAST LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. EXPECT SCT TO BKN DIURNAL
CUMULUS CLOUDS ON WEDNESDAY THAT SHOULD BE VFR LEVEL. ALSO EXPECT
LIGHTER NNW WINDS AND A LAKE BREEZE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...REM
TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MRC
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...DAVIS





000
FXUS63 KMKX 260201 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
901 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.UPDATE...

HAVE SLOWED THE EASTWARD PROGRESS OF CLOUD DECK PER LATEST HRRR
925-850MB FORECAST AND ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES A LITTLE AS WELL
WITH MORE CLOUD COVER LINGERING INTO THE OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY
IN THE EAST. DRIER AIR ERODING THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE DECK WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO COOL IN THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...

HAVE KEPT STRATOCU DECK OVER EASTERN SITES THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...THOUGH EXPECT THEM TO LIFT TO VFR LEVELS BY...OR
SHORTLY AFTER 06Z. CLOUD COVER WILL BE MORE SCATTERED OVER THE
WEST WEDNESDAY...THOUGH EXPECT BROKEN DIURNAL VFR CU DECK TO
LINGER OVER THE EAST AS MOISTURE AND ONE MORE POCKET OF
RELATIVELY COOL 850 MB TEMPS ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA. LOOK FOR
SCATTERED CLOUD COVER BY WEDNESDAY EVENING OVER ALL OF SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 216 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015/

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

THE UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN ONTARIO AND THE CORRESPONDING LOW
PRESSURE NEAR JAMES BAY WILL FINALLY SHIFT EAST TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. A LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL NUDGE INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND A SURFACE HIGH WILL SPREAD OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
DURING THIS TIME. THE QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL CONTINUE BUT
THERE WILL BE NOTICEABLY FEWER CLOUDS AND THUS WARMING TEMPERATURES.

1000-850MB RH WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...
ALTHOUGH THERE IS A LOWERING TREND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. I AM AT LEAST
EXPECTING THE CLOUDS TO SCATTER OUT OVERNIGHT...IF NOT CLEAR FOR A
TIME. THEN WE WILL HAVE MORE SCATTERED TO BROKEN DIURNAL CUMULUS
CLOUDS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WI ON WEDNESDAY.

DIMINISHING CLOUDS TONIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE
LOWER 50S INLAND FROM LAKE MICHIGAN. A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE
WEDNESDAY WILL LEAD TO HIGHS AROUND 70 NEAR THE LAKE AND POSSIBLY
MID 70S WELL INLAND. LIGHTER WINDS WILL ALLOW A LAKE BREEZE TO
DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL BE IN CONTROL DURING THIS PERIOD. LIGHT
WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANOTHER COOL NIGHT WED NIGHT AND A RATHER
PLEASANT DAY ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS PUSHING INTO THE 70S.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON THE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE PUSHING INTO
THE PLAINS AND TRIGGERING SFC CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS ON THURSDAY. THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF/CANADIAN THEN ALL HAVE
DIFFERENT IDEAS ON THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE LOW AS IT HEADS
EAST TOWARD OUR AREA. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT FROM
RUN TO RUN...AS HAS THE CANADIAN. THEY BOTH HAVE A WEAKER AND MORE
SOUTHERN TRACK. MEANWHILE...THE NAM BLOWS UP A RATHER INTENSE
SYSTEM WITH THE MOST NORTHERN TRACK AND VERY COPIOUS PRECIP
UPSTREAM...SLOWLY WEAKENING AS IT MOVES ACROSS WISCONSIN. THE GFS
IS A BIT OF A BLEND BETWEEN THE TWO CAMPS. THE NAM LOOKS TO BE
SUFFERING ITS USUAL HIGH MOISTURE BIAS...SO BASICALLY GOING TO
THROW THAT OUT. THE RESULTANT FEEDBACK CAN/T BE TRUSTED.
OUR PREFERRED MODEL BLEND LOOKS TO TAKE A DECENT BLEND OF THE EC
AND THE GFS WITH RESPECT TO POPS. BEST CHANCE WILL BE NORTHWEST
OF MADISON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THEN THE SYSTEM WEAKENS WITH TIME AND
POPS GRADUALLY DIMINISH. BUT THE SYSTEM WILL BE A SLOW MOVER AND
WE/LL KEEP POPS IN THROUGH SATURDAY. THERE IS LITTLE TO NO
CAPE...SO WILL CARRY JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER AT THIS
POINT. HOPEFULLY WE CAN GET BENEFICIAL RAIN OUT THIS THING.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR SUNDAY THEN SLIDES SOUTHEAST WITH A TROF
DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THAT TROF WILL
SIT OUT THERE FOR A FEW DAYS...RESULTING IN A STRENGTHENING
THERMAL RIDGE THAT WILL LEAN IN HERE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MANY SCHOOLS START ON SEP 1ST AND RIGHT ON SCHEDULE WE SHOULD SEE
TEMPS WARM INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S. SOME OF THE LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE SHOWS HIGHS POSSIBLY HITTING 90. THAT WARM PATTERN LOOKS
PERSISTENT AND MAY LAST THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

LOOK FOR CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY SCATTER OUT AND DIMINISH FROM WEST TO
EAST LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. EXPECT SCT TO BKN DIURNAL
CUMULUS CLOUDS ON WEDNESDAY THAT SHOULD BE VFR LEVEL. ALSO EXPECT
LIGHTER NNW WINDS AND A LAKE BREEZE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...REM
TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MRC
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...DAVIS




000
FXUS63 KMKX 251916
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
216 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

THE UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN ONTARIO AND THE CORRESPONDING LOW
PRESSURE NEAR JAMES BAY WILL FINALLY SHIFT EAST TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. A LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL NUDGE INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND A SURFACE HIGH WILL SPREAD OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
DURING THIS TIME. THE QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL CONTINUE BUT
THERE WILL BE NOTICEABLY FEWER CLOUDS AND THUS WARMING TEMPERATURES.

1000-850MB RH WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...
ALTHOUGH THERE IS A LOWERING TREND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. I AM AT LEAST
EXPECTING THE CLOUDS TO SCATTER OUT OVERNIGHT...IF NOT CLEAR FOR A
TIME. THEN WE WILL HAVE MORE SCATTERED TO BROKEN DIURNAL CUMULUS
CLOUDS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WI ON WEDNESDAY.

DIMINISHING CLOUDS TONIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE
LOWER 50S INLAND FROM LAKE MICHIGAN. A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE
WEDNESDAY WILL LEAD TO HIGHS AROUND 70 NEAR THE LAKE AND POSSIBLY
MID 70S WELL INLAND. LIGHTER WINDS WILL ALLOW A LAKE BREEZE TO
DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL BE IN CONTROL DURING THIS PERIOD. LIGHT
WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANOTHER COOL NIGHT WED NIGHT AND A RATHER
PLEASANT DAY ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS PUSHING INTO THE 70S.

.FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON THE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE PUSHING INTO
THE PLAINS AND TRIGGERING SFC CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS ON THURSDAY. THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF/CANADIAN THEN ALL HAVE
DIFFERENT IDEAS ON THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE LOW AS IT HEADS
EAST TOWARD OUR AREA. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT FROM
RUN TO RUN...AS HAS THE CANADIAN. THEY BOTH HAVE A WEAKER AND MORE
SOUTHERN TRACK. MEANWHILE...THE NAM BLOWS UP A RATHER INTENSE
SYSTEM WITH THE MOST NORTHERN TRACK AND VERY COPIOUS PRECIP
UPSTREAM...SLOWLY WEAKENING AS IT MOVES ACROSS WISCONSIN. THE GFS
IS A BIT OF A BLEND BETWEEN THE TWO CAMPS. THE NAM LOOKS TO BE
SUFFERING ITS USUAL HIGH MOISTURE BIAS...SO BASICALLY GOING TO
THROW THAT OUT. THE RESULTANT FEEDBACK CAN/T BE TRUSTED.
OUR PREFERRED MODEL BLEND LOOKS TO TAKE A DECENT BLEND OF THE EC
AND THE GFS WITH RESPECT TO POPS. BEST CHANCE WILL BE NORTHWEST
OF MADISON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THEN THE SYSTEM WEAKENS WITH TIME AND
POPS GRADUALLY DIMINISH. BUT THE SYSTEM WILL BE A SLOW MOVER AND
WE/LL KEEP POPS IN THROUGH SATURDAY. THERE IS LITTLE TO NO
CAPE...SO WILL CARRY JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER AT THIS
POINT. HOPEFULLY WE CAN GET BENEFICIAL RAIN OUT THIS THING.

.SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR SUNDAY THEN SLIDES SOUTHEAST WITH A TROF
DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THAT TROF WILL
SIT OUT THERE FOR A FEW DAYS...RESULTING IN A STRENGTHENING
THERMAL RIDGE THAT WILL LEAN IN HERE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MANY SCHOOLS START ON SEP 1ST AND RIGHT ON SCHEDULE WE SHOULD SEE
TEMPS WARM INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S. SOME OF THE LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE SHOWS HIGHS POSSIBLY HITTING 90. THAT WARM PATTERN LOOKS
PERSISTENT AND MAY LAST THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

LOOK FOR CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY SCATTER OUT AND DIMINISH FROM WEST TO
EAST LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. EXPECT SCT TO BKN DIURNAL
CUMULUS CLOUDS ON WEDNESDAY THAT SHOULD BE VFR LEVEL. ALSO EXPECT
LIGHTER NNW WINDS AND A LAKE BREEZE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MRC
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...DAVIS





000
FXUS63 KMKX 251916
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
216 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

THE UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN ONTARIO AND THE CORRESPONDING LOW
PRESSURE NEAR JAMES BAY WILL FINALLY SHIFT EAST TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. A LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL NUDGE INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND A SURFACE HIGH WILL SPREAD OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
DURING THIS TIME. THE QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL CONTINUE BUT
THERE WILL BE NOTICEABLY FEWER CLOUDS AND THUS WARMING TEMPERATURES.

1000-850MB RH WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...
ALTHOUGH THERE IS A LOWERING TREND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. I AM AT LEAST
EXPECTING THE CLOUDS TO SCATTER OUT OVERNIGHT...IF NOT CLEAR FOR A
TIME. THEN WE WILL HAVE MORE SCATTERED TO BROKEN DIURNAL CUMULUS
CLOUDS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WI ON WEDNESDAY.

DIMINISHING CLOUDS TONIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE
LOWER 50S INLAND FROM LAKE MICHIGAN. A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE
WEDNESDAY WILL LEAD TO HIGHS AROUND 70 NEAR THE LAKE AND POSSIBLY
MID 70S WELL INLAND. LIGHTER WINDS WILL ALLOW A LAKE BREEZE TO
DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL BE IN CONTROL DURING THIS PERIOD. LIGHT
WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANOTHER COOL NIGHT WED NIGHT AND A RATHER
PLEASANT DAY ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS PUSHING INTO THE 70S.

.FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON THE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE PUSHING INTO
THE PLAINS AND TRIGGERING SFC CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS ON THURSDAY. THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF/CANADIAN THEN ALL HAVE
DIFFERENT IDEAS ON THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE LOW AS IT HEADS
EAST TOWARD OUR AREA. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT FROM
RUN TO RUN...AS HAS THE CANADIAN. THEY BOTH HAVE A WEAKER AND MORE
SOUTHERN TRACK. MEANWHILE...THE NAM BLOWS UP A RATHER INTENSE
SYSTEM WITH THE MOST NORTHERN TRACK AND VERY COPIOUS PRECIP
UPSTREAM...SLOWLY WEAKENING AS IT MOVES ACROSS WISCONSIN. THE GFS
IS A BIT OF A BLEND BETWEEN THE TWO CAMPS. THE NAM LOOKS TO BE
SUFFERING ITS USUAL HIGH MOISTURE BIAS...SO BASICALLY GOING TO
THROW THAT OUT. THE RESULTANT FEEDBACK CAN/T BE TRUSTED.
OUR PREFERRED MODEL BLEND LOOKS TO TAKE A DECENT BLEND OF THE EC
AND THE GFS WITH RESPECT TO POPS. BEST CHANCE WILL BE NORTHWEST
OF MADISON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THEN THE SYSTEM WEAKENS WITH TIME AND
POPS GRADUALLY DIMINISH. BUT THE SYSTEM WILL BE A SLOW MOVER AND
WE/LL KEEP POPS IN THROUGH SATURDAY. THERE IS LITTLE TO NO
CAPE...SO WILL CARRY JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER AT THIS
POINT. HOPEFULLY WE CAN GET BENEFICIAL RAIN OUT THIS THING.

.SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR SUNDAY THEN SLIDES SOUTHEAST WITH A TROF
DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THAT TROF WILL
SIT OUT THERE FOR A FEW DAYS...RESULTING IN A STRENGTHENING
THERMAL RIDGE THAT WILL LEAN IN HERE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MANY SCHOOLS START ON SEP 1ST AND RIGHT ON SCHEDULE WE SHOULD SEE
TEMPS WARM INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S. SOME OF THE LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE SHOWS HIGHS POSSIBLY HITTING 90. THAT WARM PATTERN LOOKS
PERSISTENT AND MAY LAST THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

LOOK FOR CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY SCATTER OUT AND DIMINISH FROM WEST TO
EAST LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. EXPECT SCT TO BKN DIURNAL
CUMULUS CLOUDS ON WEDNESDAY THAT SHOULD BE VFR LEVEL. ALSO EXPECT
LIGHTER NNW WINDS AND A LAKE BREEZE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MRC
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...DAVIS




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