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000
FXUS63 KMKX 280333
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
933 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...

NO CHANGE IN LOW TEMPERATURES. WINDS HAVE NOT DECOUPLED
COMPLETELY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN. IR IMAGE SHOWS
AREA WITH FRESH SNOW OVER EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS HAS
BECOME CALM WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO AROUND -10. WITH LIGHT
WINDS WILL NOT HAVE ANY WIND CHILL ADVISORIES.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...

VFR CLEAR CONDITIONS TONIGHT WITH SOME HIGH/MID CLOUDS EXPECTED
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS TONIGHT. THE SURFACE
HIGH MOVES OFF THE THE EAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 218 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...HIGH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM INDIANA TO THE EAST COAST BRINGING A
CLEAR NIGHT AND A SUNNY SATURDAY. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG
MODELS OF -14C 925MB TEMPS WHICH YIELDS MIN TEMPS IN THE NEGATIVE
SINGLE DIGITS UNDER A STRONG INVERSION. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST WHICH IS ENOUGH TO CREATE WIND CHILL VALUES DOWN TO
-15 TO -19 EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

WARM AIR ADVECTION STARTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON ON SOUTHWEST FLOW.
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL PUSH
INTO SW WISCONSIN LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

A FAIRLY LOW AMPLITUDE SYSTEM WILL BE SKIRTING BY PRIMARILY TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AREA DURING THIS TIME. THE BEST MOISTURE AND FORCING
WILL BE SOUTH. BACKED OFF ON POPS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AS WE/LL
STILL BE UNDER THE DOMINATING INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH THE
MOISTURE RETURN LIKELY HOLDING OFF UNTIL SUNDAY. WILL KEEP A VERY
SMALL MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...BUT KEEP IT
DRY ELSEWHERE. AS A WEAK SURFACE TROF ARRIVES ON SUNDAY...SOME OF
THE MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH WILL BE PULLED FARTHER NORTH AND AT THIS
POINT WE SHOULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA. MUCH LOWER CHANCE WEST AND NORTH
OF MADISON. THE SOUTHEAST COULD SEE ABOUT AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION
WHILE MADISON LOOKS LIKE 1/2 INCH...LESS TO THE NORTH/WEST. A
MINOR EVENT.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES FOR THIS PERIOD. ANY LINGERING LIGHT
SNOW WILL EXIT THE SOUTHEAST QUICKLY DURING SUNDAY EVENING.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

LOOKS LIKE AN UNSETTLE PERIOD WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING IN. THIS
IS ONE OF THE MORE ENERGETIC SYSTEMS WE/VE SEEN IN SOME TIME AND
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DUMP SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW...MAYBE SOME ICE
IN THE FAR SOUTH. IN A CLASSIC PROCESS...THE UPPER FLOW BACKS TO
THE SOUTHWEST WITH A DIGGING LARGE AMPLITUDE TROF OVER THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS...UP THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA. RIDGING EXISTS OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. THIS OPENS THE DOOR TO BETTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
EXPOSURE TO THE INFLUENCE OF SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING
NORTHEAST THROUGH THAT FLOW.

FOR THIS FAR OUT...THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT. THAT
BEING THE GFS/ECMWF AND THE CANADIAN GEM. THEY ALL SHOW SOME FORM
OF SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING ON TUESDAY WITH THE LOW
MOVING ROUGHLY OVER THE CHICAGO AREA. THE GFS IS MORE AMPLIFIED
THAN THE EC AND THE GEM. THE EARLIER RUNS WERE A BIT FARTHER SOUTH
THAN THE CURRENT 12Z RUNS THIS MORNING. THEY ALL NOW SUGGEST THE
PRECIP STARTING OUT AS LIGHT SNOW MONDAY NIGHT WITH A WARM LAYER
GETTING UP INTO THE SOUTHERN 1/3 OF THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY.
THIS WOULD BRING A WINTRY MIX OF POSSIBLY RAIN/FREEZING RAIN AND
SOME SLEET. WAY TOO EARLY TO GET CUTE ON WHERE THIS WILL LAY OUT
AS THE TRACK IS LIKELY TO FLUCTUATE GOING FORWARD. IF THE LOW GOES
SOUTH BY JUST 50 MILES...ALL OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN COULD BE
SNOW...IF IT GOES NORTH BY THAT AMOUNT...MUCH OF SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN COULD SEE A MIX AND MAYBE ALL RAIN ALONG THE IL BORDER.
IN THE AREA THAT LOOKS LIKE ALL SNOW AT THIS TIME...ROUGHLY NORTH
OF A MILWAUKEE TO MADISON LINE...THERE COULD BE 4 TO 6 INCHES OF
SNOW.

CONFIDENCE ON THE DETAILS IS LOW...BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT
WE/LL SEE SOME PRECIP.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES WITH PLENTY OF COLD AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE
EXITING LOW. SO COLD AND DRY FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT WINDS. MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST WI LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

MARINE...

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES TO
THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HENTZ
TONIGHT/SATURDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...SPM
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...DAVIS




000
FXUS63 KMKX 280333
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
933 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...

NO CHANGE IN LOW TEMPERATURES. WINDS HAVE NOT DECOUPLED
COMPLETELY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN. IR IMAGE SHOWS
AREA WITH FRESH SNOW OVER EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS HAS
BECOME CALM WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO AROUND -10. WITH LIGHT
WINDS WILL NOT HAVE ANY WIND CHILL ADVISORIES.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...

VFR CLEAR CONDITIONS TONIGHT WITH SOME HIGH/MID CLOUDS EXPECTED
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS TONIGHT. THE SURFACE
HIGH MOVES OFF THE THE EAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 218 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...HIGH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM INDIANA TO THE EAST COAST BRINGING A
CLEAR NIGHT AND A SUNNY SATURDAY. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG
MODELS OF -14C 925MB TEMPS WHICH YIELDS MIN TEMPS IN THE NEGATIVE
SINGLE DIGITS UNDER A STRONG INVERSION. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST WHICH IS ENOUGH TO CREATE WIND CHILL VALUES DOWN TO
-15 TO -19 EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

WARM AIR ADVECTION STARTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON ON SOUTHWEST FLOW.
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL PUSH
INTO SW WISCONSIN LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

A FAIRLY LOW AMPLITUDE SYSTEM WILL BE SKIRTING BY PRIMARILY TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AREA DURING THIS TIME. THE BEST MOISTURE AND FORCING
WILL BE SOUTH. BACKED OFF ON POPS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AS WE/LL
STILL BE UNDER THE DOMINATING INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH THE
MOISTURE RETURN LIKELY HOLDING OFF UNTIL SUNDAY. WILL KEEP A VERY
SMALL MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...BUT KEEP IT
DRY ELSEWHERE. AS A WEAK SURFACE TROF ARRIVES ON SUNDAY...SOME OF
THE MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH WILL BE PULLED FARTHER NORTH AND AT THIS
POINT WE SHOULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA. MUCH LOWER CHANCE WEST AND NORTH
OF MADISON. THE SOUTHEAST COULD SEE ABOUT AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION
WHILE MADISON LOOKS LIKE 1/2 INCH...LESS TO THE NORTH/WEST. A
MINOR EVENT.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES FOR THIS PERIOD. ANY LINGERING LIGHT
SNOW WILL EXIT THE SOUTHEAST QUICKLY DURING SUNDAY EVENING.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

LOOKS LIKE AN UNSETTLE PERIOD WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING IN. THIS
IS ONE OF THE MORE ENERGETIC SYSTEMS WE/VE SEEN IN SOME TIME AND
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DUMP SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW...MAYBE SOME ICE
IN THE FAR SOUTH. IN A CLASSIC PROCESS...THE UPPER FLOW BACKS TO
THE SOUTHWEST WITH A DIGGING LARGE AMPLITUDE TROF OVER THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS...UP THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA. RIDGING EXISTS OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. THIS OPENS THE DOOR TO BETTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
EXPOSURE TO THE INFLUENCE OF SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING
NORTHEAST THROUGH THAT FLOW.

FOR THIS FAR OUT...THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT. THAT
BEING THE GFS/ECMWF AND THE CANADIAN GEM. THEY ALL SHOW SOME FORM
OF SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING ON TUESDAY WITH THE LOW
MOVING ROUGHLY OVER THE CHICAGO AREA. THE GFS IS MORE AMPLIFIED
THAN THE EC AND THE GEM. THE EARLIER RUNS WERE A BIT FARTHER SOUTH
THAN THE CURRENT 12Z RUNS THIS MORNING. THEY ALL NOW SUGGEST THE
PRECIP STARTING OUT AS LIGHT SNOW MONDAY NIGHT WITH A WARM LAYER
GETTING UP INTO THE SOUTHERN 1/3 OF THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY.
THIS WOULD BRING A WINTRY MIX OF POSSIBLY RAIN/FREEZING RAIN AND
SOME SLEET. WAY TOO EARLY TO GET CUTE ON WHERE THIS WILL LAY OUT
AS THE TRACK IS LIKELY TO FLUCTUATE GOING FORWARD. IF THE LOW GOES
SOUTH BY JUST 50 MILES...ALL OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN COULD BE
SNOW...IF IT GOES NORTH BY THAT AMOUNT...MUCH OF SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN COULD SEE A MIX AND MAYBE ALL RAIN ALONG THE IL BORDER.
IN THE AREA THAT LOOKS LIKE ALL SNOW AT THIS TIME...ROUGHLY NORTH
OF A MILWAUKEE TO MADISON LINE...THERE COULD BE 4 TO 6 INCHES OF
SNOW.

CONFIDENCE ON THE DETAILS IS LOW...BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT
WE/LL SEE SOME PRECIP.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES WITH PLENTY OF COLD AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE
EXITING LOW. SO COLD AND DRY FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT WINDS. MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST WI LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

MARINE...

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES TO
THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HENTZ
TONIGHT/SATURDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...SPM
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...DAVIS





000
FXUS63 KMKX 272018
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
218 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.TONIGHT AND SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...HIGH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM INDIANA TO THE EAST COAST BRINGING A
CLEAR NIGHT AND A SUNNY SATURDAY. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG
MODELS OF -14C 925MB TEMPS WHICH YIELDS MIN TEMPS IN THE NEGATIVE
SINGLE DIGITS UNDER A STRONG INVERSION. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST WHICH IS ENOUGH TO CREATE WIND CHILL VALUES DOWN TO
-15 TO -19 EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

WARM AIR ADVECTION STARTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON ON SOUTHWEST FLOW.
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL PUSH
INTO SW WISCONSIN LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

.SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

A FAIRLY LOW AMPLITUDE SYSTEM WILL BE SKIRTING BY PRIMARILY TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AREA DURING THIS TIME. THE BEST MOISTURE AND FORCING
WILL BE SOUTH. BACKED OFF ON POPS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AS WE/LL
STILL BE UNDER THE DOMINATING INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH THE
MOISTURE RETURN LIKELY HOLDING OFF UNTIL SUNDAY. WILL KEEP A VERY
SMALL MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...BUT KEEP IT
DRY ELSEWHERE. AS A WEAK SURFACE TROF ARRIVES ON SUNDAY...SOME OF
THE MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH WILL BE PULLED FARTHER NORTH AND AT THIS
POINT WE SHOULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA. MUCH LOWER CHANCE WEST AND NORTH
OF MADISON. THE SOUTHEAST COULD SEE ABOUT AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION
WHILE MADISON LOOKS LIKE 1/2 INCH...LESS TO THE NORTH/WEST. A
MINOR EVENT.

.SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES FOR THIS PERIOD. ANY LINGERING LIGHT
SNOW WILL EXIT THE SOUTHEAST QUICKLY DURING SUNDAY EVENING.

.MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

LOOKS LIKE AN UNSETTLE PERIOD WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING IN. THIS
IS ONE OF THE MORE ENERGETIC SYSTEMS WE/VE SEEN IN SOME TIME AND
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DUMP SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW...MAYBE SOME ICE
IN THE FAR SOUTH. IN A CLASSIC PROCESS...THE UPPER FLOW BACKS TO
THE SOUTHWEST WITH A DIGGING LARGE AMPLITUDE TROF OVER THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS...UP THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA. RIDGING EXISTS OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. THIS OPENS THE DOOR TO BETTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
EXPOSURE TO THE INFLUENCE OF SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING
NORTHEAST THROUGH THAT FLOW.

FOR THIS FAR OUT...THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT. THAT
BEING THE GFS/ECMWF AND THE CANADIAN GEM. THEY ALL SHOW SOME FORM
OF SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING ON TUESDAY WITH THE LOW
MOVING ROUGHLY OVER THE CHICAGO AREA. THE GFS IS MORE AMPLIFIED
THAN THE EC AND THE GEM. THE EARLIER RUNS WERE A BIT FARTHER SOUTH
THAN THE CURRENT 12Z RUNS THIS MORNING. THEY ALL NOW SUGGEST THE
PRECIP STARTING OUT AS LIGHT SNOW MONDAY NIGHT WITH A WARM LAYER
GETTING UP INTO THE SOUTHERN 1/3 OF THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY.
THIS WOULD BRING A WINTRY MIX OF POSSIBLY RAIN/FREEZING RAIN AND
SOME SLEET. WAY TOO EARLY TO GET CUTE ON WHERE THIS WILL LAY OUT
AS THE TRACK IS LIKELY TO FLUCTUATE GOING FORWARD. IF THE LOW GOES
SOUTH BY JUST 50 MILES...ALL OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN COULD BE
SNOW...IF IT GOES NORTH BY THAT AMOUNT...MUCH OF SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN COULD SEE A MIX AND MAYBE ALL RAIN ALONG THE IL BORDER.
IN THE AREA THAT LOOKS LIKE ALL SNOW AT THIS TIME...ROUGHLY NORTH
OF A MILWAUKEE TO MADISON LINE...THERE COULD BE 4 TO 6 INCHES OF
SNOW.

CONFIDENCE ON THE DETAILS IS LOW...BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT
WE/LL SEE SOME PRECIP.

.WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES WITH PLENTY OF COLD AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE
EXITING LOW. SO COLD AND DRY FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT WINDS. MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST WI LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES TO
THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TONIGHT/SATURDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MARQUARDT
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...DAVIS





000
FXUS63 KMKX 272018
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
218 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.TONIGHT AND SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...HIGH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM INDIANA TO THE EAST COAST BRINGING A
CLEAR NIGHT AND A SUNNY SATURDAY. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG
MODELS OF -14C 925MB TEMPS WHICH YIELDS MIN TEMPS IN THE NEGATIVE
SINGLE DIGITS UNDER A STRONG INVERSION. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST WHICH IS ENOUGH TO CREATE WIND CHILL VALUES DOWN TO
-15 TO -19 EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

WARM AIR ADVECTION STARTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON ON SOUTHWEST FLOW.
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL PUSH
INTO SW WISCONSIN LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

.SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

A FAIRLY LOW AMPLITUDE SYSTEM WILL BE SKIRTING BY PRIMARILY TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AREA DURING THIS TIME. THE BEST MOISTURE AND FORCING
WILL BE SOUTH. BACKED OFF ON POPS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AS WE/LL
STILL BE UNDER THE DOMINATING INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH THE
MOISTURE RETURN LIKELY HOLDING OFF UNTIL SUNDAY. WILL KEEP A VERY
SMALL MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...BUT KEEP IT
DRY ELSEWHERE. AS A WEAK SURFACE TROF ARRIVES ON SUNDAY...SOME OF
THE MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH WILL BE PULLED FARTHER NORTH AND AT THIS
POINT WE SHOULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA. MUCH LOWER CHANCE WEST AND NORTH
OF MADISON. THE SOUTHEAST COULD SEE ABOUT AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION
WHILE MADISON LOOKS LIKE 1/2 INCH...LESS TO THE NORTH/WEST. A
MINOR EVENT.

.SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES FOR THIS PERIOD. ANY LINGERING LIGHT
SNOW WILL EXIT THE SOUTHEAST QUICKLY DURING SUNDAY EVENING.

.MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

LOOKS LIKE AN UNSETTLE PERIOD WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING IN. THIS
IS ONE OF THE MORE ENERGETIC SYSTEMS WE/VE SEEN IN SOME TIME AND
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DUMP SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW...MAYBE SOME ICE
IN THE FAR SOUTH. IN A CLASSIC PROCESS...THE UPPER FLOW BACKS TO
THE SOUTHWEST WITH A DIGGING LARGE AMPLITUDE TROF OVER THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS...UP THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA. RIDGING EXISTS OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. THIS OPENS THE DOOR TO BETTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
EXPOSURE TO THE INFLUENCE OF SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING
NORTHEAST THROUGH THAT FLOW.

FOR THIS FAR OUT...THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT. THAT
BEING THE GFS/ECMWF AND THE CANADIAN GEM. THEY ALL SHOW SOME FORM
OF SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING ON TUESDAY WITH THE LOW
MOVING ROUGHLY OVER THE CHICAGO AREA. THE GFS IS MORE AMPLIFIED
THAN THE EC AND THE GEM. THE EARLIER RUNS WERE A BIT FARTHER SOUTH
THAN THE CURRENT 12Z RUNS THIS MORNING. THEY ALL NOW SUGGEST THE
PRECIP STARTING OUT AS LIGHT SNOW MONDAY NIGHT WITH A WARM LAYER
GETTING UP INTO THE SOUTHERN 1/3 OF THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY.
THIS WOULD BRING A WINTRY MIX OF POSSIBLY RAIN/FREEZING RAIN AND
SOME SLEET. WAY TOO EARLY TO GET CUTE ON WHERE THIS WILL LAY OUT
AS THE TRACK IS LIKELY TO FLUCTUATE GOING FORWARD. IF THE LOW GOES
SOUTH BY JUST 50 MILES...ALL OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN COULD BE
SNOW...IF IT GOES NORTH BY THAT AMOUNT...MUCH OF SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN COULD SEE A MIX AND MAYBE ALL RAIN ALONG THE IL BORDER.
IN THE AREA THAT LOOKS LIKE ALL SNOW AT THIS TIME...ROUGHLY NORTH
OF A MILWAUKEE TO MADISON LINE...THERE COULD BE 4 TO 6 INCHES OF
SNOW.

CONFIDENCE ON THE DETAILS IS LOW...BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT
WE/LL SEE SOME PRECIP.

.WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES WITH PLENTY OF COLD AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE
EXITING LOW. SO COLD AND DRY FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT WINDS. MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST WI LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES TO
THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TONIGHT/SATURDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MARQUARDT
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...DAVIS




000
FXUS63 KMKX 271531 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
931 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...

NO CHANGE TO CURRENT FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS
THE REGION BRINGING SUNNY SKIES AND A CLEAR NIGHT. TEMPS ON TRACK TO
REACH THE MID TEENS TODAY WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW
ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST WI LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT - CONFIDENCE...HIGH.

DESPITE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WELL OFF TO THE WEST...WINDS HAVE
DECOUPLED AT NUMEROUS LOCATIONS CENTRAL AND WEST CWA...RESULTING IN
NEGLIGIBLE WIND CHILL AFFECTS.  DESPITE LIGHT SFC WINDS AT THESE
LOCATIONS...TEMPS HAVE NOT BEEN FALLING ALL THAT FAST LIKELY DUE TO
SHALLOW INVERSION.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PASSES JUST TO THE SOUTH OF WI TONIGHT.  THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHTER SFC WINDS...BUT STILL SOME MIXINESS EXPECTED
JUST ABOVE INVERSION...WHICH SHOULD BE A LITTLE DEEPER.  HENCE
EXPECT TEMPS TO BE A FEW DEGREES LOWER TONIGHT AFTER REBOUNDING INTO
THE TEENS TODAY.  PUFFS OF LIGHT WIND WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS
BETWEEN 10 TO 20 BELOW AT TIMES.  WL REISSUE SPS FOR WIND CHILLS BUT
NO ADVY PLANNED DUE TO LIGHTER WINDS.

SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST THROUGH THE DAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
BRING SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR BACK INTO SOUTHERN WI. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE UPPER TEENS. MID CLOUDS WILL APPROACH IN EITHER THE LATE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. THESE CLOUDS WILL DETERMINE THE SAT
NIGHT MIN TEMPS. THE MIN SHOULD OCCUR DURING THE EVENING WITH
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND THEN WARM LATER IN THE NIGHT WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND ARRIVAL OF SNOW.

LONG TERM...

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO NORTHERN IL AND SOUTHERN WI
AFTER MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH ISENTROPIC
LIFT... WARM AIR ADVECTION... AND THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER
JET. THE STRONGEST FORCING WILL BE OVER CENTRAL IL WITHIN THE 850MB
BAROCLINIC ZONE. SOUTHERN WI WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE
SNOW AREA. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR HOW FAR NORTH THE SNOW WILL
SPREAD INTO WI. THE ILLINOIS BORDER COUNTIES COULD SEE UP TO 2
INCHES WITH THIS SYSTEM... MAINLY SUNDAY MORNING.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS WI SUNDAY AFTERNOON
WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT CONTINUED LIGHT SNOW.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS WI SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
LEADING TO CLEAR SKIES... COOL TEMPS AND QUIET WEATHER.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST NEXT WEEK.
RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL LEAD TO WARMER TEMPERATURES
CREEPING INTO SOUTHERN WI. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO IMPACT
THE AREA WILL ARRIVE IN SOUTHERN WI EITHER MONDAY NIGHT /GFS/ OR
TUESDAY MORNING /ECMWF/ AND BRING MAINLY SNOW. THERE IS A PERIOD
WHERE 850MB TEMPS RISE ABOVE FREEZING IN FAR SOUTHEAST WI DURING THE
DAY TUESDAY... SO RAIN OR A MIX OF RAIN... FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET
WILL BE POSSIBLE THERE. EXPECT THINGS TO CHANGE... BUT AT THIS TIME
IT LOOKS LIKE 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE USING A CONSENSUS
OF MODEL QPF AND SNOW RATIOS.

THIS WILL BE A LONG DURATION EVENT SINCE LIGHT SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY UNTIL THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CLEARS
EASTERN WI.

MODELS ARE SHOWING YET ANOTHER SHORT-LIVED BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR IN
THE WAKE OF THE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY SYSTEM.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH THE REGION WILL RESULT IN
VFR CONDITIONS DURING FORECAST PERIOD.

MARINE...

HIGH RES VISIBLE IMAGES FROM THU AFTN CONTINUE TO SHOW MUCH OF THE
NEARSHORE WATERS COVERED BY ICE.  COLD TEMPERATURES AND LIGHTER
WINDS EXPECTED TODAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD RESULT IN EXPANSION OF ICE
COVER INTO WESTERN PART OF OPEN WATERS.  NO WIND ISSUES EXPECTED
UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MARQUARDT
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MRC





000
FXUS63 KMKX 271531 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
931 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...

NO CHANGE TO CURRENT FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS
THE REGION BRINGING SUNNY SKIES AND A CLEAR NIGHT. TEMPS ON TRACK TO
REACH THE MID TEENS TODAY WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW
ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST WI LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT - CONFIDENCE...HIGH.

DESPITE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WELL OFF TO THE WEST...WINDS HAVE
DECOUPLED AT NUMEROUS LOCATIONS CENTRAL AND WEST CWA...RESULTING IN
NEGLIGIBLE WIND CHILL AFFECTS.  DESPITE LIGHT SFC WINDS AT THESE
LOCATIONS...TEMPS HAVE NOT BEEN FALLING ALL THAT FAST LIKELY DUE TO
SHALLOW INVERSION.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PASSES JUST TO THE SOUTH OF WI TONIGHT.  THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHTER SFC WINDS...BUT STILL SOME MIXINESS EXPECTED
JUST ABOVE INVERSION...WHICH SHOULD BE A LITTLE DEEPER.  HENCE
EXPECT TEMPS TO BE A FEW DEGREES LOWER TONIGHT AFTER REBOUNDING INTO
THE TEENS TODAY.  PUFFS OF LIGHT WIND WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS
BETWEEN 10 TO 20 BELOW AT TIMES.  WL REISSUE SPS FOR WIND CHILLS BUT
NO ADVY PLANNED DUE TO LIGHTER WINDS.

SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST THROUGH THE DAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
BRING SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR BACK INTO SOUTHERN WI. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE UPPER TEENS. MID CLOUDS WILL APPROACH IN EITHER THE LATE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. THESE CLOUDS WILL DETERMINE THE SAT
NIGHT MIN TEMPS. THE MIN SHOULD OCCUR DURING THE EVENING WITH
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND THEN WARM LATER IN THE NIGHT WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND ARRIVAL OF SNOW.

LONG TERM...

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO NORTHERN IL AND SOUTHERN WI
AFTER MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH ISENTROPIC
LIFT... WARM AIR ADVECTION... AND THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER
JET. THE STRONGEST FORCING WILL BE OVER CENTRAL IL WITHIN THE 850MB
BAROCLINIC ZONE. SOUTHERN WI WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE
SNOW AREA. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR HOW FAR NORTH THE SNOW WILL
SPREAD INTO WI. THE ILLINOIS BORDER COUNTIES COULD SEE UP TO 2
INCHES WITH THIS SYSTEM... MAINLY SUNDAY MORNING.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS WI SUNDAY AFTERNOON
WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT CONTINUED LIGHT SNOW.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS WI SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
LEADING TO CLEAR SKIES... COOL TEMPS AND QUIET WEATHER.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST NEXT WEEK.
RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL LEAD TO WARMER TEMPERATURES
CREEPING INTO SOUTHERN WI. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO IMPACT
THE AREA WILL ARRIVE IN SOUTHERN WI EITHER MONDAY NIGHT /GFS/ OR
TUESDAY MORNING /ECMWF/ AND BRING MAINLY SNOW. THERE IS A PERIOD
WHERE 850MB TEMPS RISE ABOVE FREEZING IN FAR SOUTHEAST WI DURING THE
DAY TUESDAY... SO RAIN OR A MIX OF RAIN... FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET
WILL BE POSSIBLE THERE. EXPECT THINGS TO CHANGE... BUT AT THIS TIME
IT LOOKS LIKE 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE USING A CONSENSUS
OF MODEL QPF AND SNOW RATIOS.

THIS WILL BE A LONG DURATION EVENT SINCE LIGHT SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY UNTIL THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CLEARS
EASTERN WI.

MODELS ARE SHOWING YET ANOTHER SHORT-LIVED BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR IN
THE WAKE OF THE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY SYSTEM.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH THE REGION WILL RESULT IN
VFR CONDITIONS DURING FORECAST PERIOD.

MARINE...

HIGH RES VISIBLE IMAGES FROM THU AFTN CONTINUE TO SHOW MUCH OF THE
NEARSHORE WATERS COVERED BY ICE.  COLD TEMPERATURES AND LIGHTER
WINDS EXPECTED TODAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD RESULT IN EXPANSION OF ICE
COVER INTO WESTERN PART OF OPEN WATERS.  NO WIND ISSUES EXPECTED
UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MARQUARDT
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MRC




000
FXUS63 KMKX 271531 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
931 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...

NO CHANGE TO CURRENT FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS
THE REGION BRINGING SUNNY SKIES AND A CLEAR NIGHT. TEMPS ON TRACK TO
REACH THE MID TEENS TODAY WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW
ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST WI LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT - CONFIDENCE...HIGH.

DESPITE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WELL OFF TO THE WEST...WINDS HAVE
DECOUPLED AT NUMEROUS LOCATIONS CENTRAL AND WEST CWA...RESULTING IN
NEGLIGIBLE WIND CHILL AFFECTS.  DESPITE LIGHT SFC WINDS AT THESE
LOCATIONS...TEMPS HAVE NOT BEEN FALLING ALL THAT FAST LIKELY DUE TO
SHALLOW INVERSION.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PASSES JUST TO THE SOUTH OF WI TONIGHT.  THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHTER SFC WINDS...BUT STILL SOME MIXINESS EXPECTED
JUST ABOVE INVERSION...WHICH SHOULD BE A LITTLE DEEPER.  HENCE
EXPECT TEMPS TO BE A FEW DEGREES LOWER TONIGHT AFTER REBOUNDING INTO
THE TEENS TODAY.  PUFFS OF LIGHT WIND WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS
BETWEEN 10 TO 20 BELOW AT TIMES.  WL REISSUE SPS FOR WIND CHILLS BUT
NO ADVY PLANNED DUE TO LIGHTER WINDS.

SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST THROUGH THE DAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
BRING SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR BACK INTO SOUTHERN WI. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE UPPER TEENS. MID CLOUDS WILL APPROACH IN EITHER THE LATE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. THESE CLOUDS WILL DETERMINE THE SAT
NIGHT MIN TEMPS. THE MIN SHOULD OCCUR DURING THE EVENING WITH
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND THEN WARM LATER IN THE NIGHT WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND ARRIVAL OF SNOW.

LONG TERM...

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO NORTHERN IL AND SOUTHERN WI
AFTER MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH ISENTROPIC
LIFT... WARM AIR ADVECTION... AND THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER
JET. THE STRONGEST FORCING WILL BE OVER CENTRAL IL WITHIN THE 850MB
BAROCLINIC ZONE. SOUTHERN WI WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE
SNOW AREA. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR HOW FAR NORTH THE SNOW WILL
SPREAD INTO WI. THE ILLINOIS BORDER COUNTIES COULD SEE UP TO 2
INCHES WITH THIS SYSTEM... MAINLY SUNDAY MORNING.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS WI SUNDAY AFTERNOON
WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT CONTINUED LIGHT SNOW.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS WI SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
LEADING TO CLEAR SKIES... COOL TEMPS AND QUIET WEATHER.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST NEXT WEEK.
RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL LEAD TO WARMER TEMPERATURES
CREEPING INTO SOUTHERN WI. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO IMPACT
THE AREA WILL ARRIVE IN SOUTHERN WI EITHER MONDAY NIGHT /GFS/ OR
TUESDAY MORNING /ECMWF/ AND BRING MAINLY SNOW. THERE IS A PERIOD
WHERE 850MB TEMPS RISE ABOVE FREEZING IN FAR SOUTHEAST WI DURING THE
DAY TUESDAY... SO RAIN OR A MIX OF RAIN... FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET
WILL BE POSSIBLE THERE. EXPECT THINGS TO CHANGE... BUT AT THIS TIME
IT LOOKS LIKE 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE USING A CONSENSUS
OF MODEL QPF AND SNOW RATIOS.

THIS WILL BE A LONG DURATION EVENT SINCE LIGHT SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY UNTIL THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CLEARS
EASTERN WI.

MODELS ARE SHOWING YET ANOTHER SHORT-LIVED BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR IN
THE WAKE OF THE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY SYSTEM.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH THE REGION WILL RESULT IN
VFR CONDITIONS DURING FORECAST PERIOD.

MARINE...

HIGH RES VISIBLE IMAGES FROM THU AFTN CONTINUE TO SHOW MUCH OF THE
NEARSHORE WATERS COVERED BY ICE.  COLD TEMPERATURES AND LIGHTER
WINDS EXPECTED TODAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD RESULT IN EXPANSION OF ICE
COVER INTO WESTERN PART OF OPEN WATERS.  NO WIND ISSUES EXPECTED
UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MARQUARDT
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MRC





000
FXUS63 KMKX 270928
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
328 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT - CONFIDENCE...HIGH.

DESPITE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WELL OFF TO THE WEST...WINDS HAVE
DECOUPLED AT NUMEROUS LOCATIONS CENTRAL AND WEST CWA...RESULTING IN
NEGLIGIBLE WIND CHILL AFFECTS.  DESPITE LIGHT SFC WINDS AT THESE
LOCATIONS...TEMPS HAVE NOT BEEN FALLING ALL THAT FAST LIKELY DUE TO
SHALLOW INVERSION.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PASSES JUST TO THE SOUTH OF WI TONIGHT.  THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHTER SFC WINDS...BUT STILL SOME MIXINESS EXPECTED
JUST ABOVE INVERSION...WHICH SHOULD BE A LITTLE DEEPER.  HENCE
EXPECT TEMPS TO BE A FEW DEGREES LOWER TONIGHT AFTER REBOUNDING INTO
THE TEENS TODAY.  PUFFS OF LIGHT WIND WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS
BETWEEN 10 TO 20 BELOW AT TIMES.  WL REISSUE SPS FOR WIND CHILLS BUT
NO ADVY PLANNED DUE TO LIGHTER WINDS.

SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST THROUGH THE DAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
BRING SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR BACK INTO SOUTHERN WI. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE UPPER TEENS. MID CLOUDS WILL APPROACH IN EITHER THE LATE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. THESE CLOUDS WILL DETERMINE THE SAT
NIGHT MIN TEMPS. THE MIN SHOULD OCCUR DURING THE EVENING WITH
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND THEN WARM LATER IN THE NIGHT WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND ARRIVAL OF SNOW.

.LONG TERM...

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO NORTHERN IL AND SOUTHERN WI
AFTER MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH ISENTROPIC
LIFT... WARM AIR ADVECTION... AND THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER
JET. THE STRONGEST FORCING WILL BE OVER CENTRAL IL WITHIN THE 850MB
BAROCLINIC ZONE. SOUTHERN WI WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE
SNOW AREA. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR HOW FAR NORTH THE SNOW WILL
SPREAD INTO WI. THE ILLINOIS BORDER COUNTIES COULD SEE UP TO 2
INCHES WITH THIS SYSTEM... MAINLY SUNDAY MORNING.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS WI SUNDAY AFTERNOON
WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT CONTINUED LIGHT SNOW.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS WI SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
LEADING TO CLEAR SKIES... COOL TEMPS AND QUIET WEATHER.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST NEXT WEEK.
RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL LEAD TO WARMER TEMPERATURES
CREEPING INTO SOUTHERN WI. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO IMPACT
THE AREA WILL ARRIVE IN SOUTHERN WI EITHER MONDAY NIGHT /GFS/ OR
TUESDAY MORNING /ECMWF/ AND BRING MAINLY SNOW. THERE IS A PERIOD
WHERE 850MB TEMPS RISE ABOVE FREEZING IN FAR SOUTHEAST WI DURING THE
DAY TUESDAY... SO RAIN OR A MIX OF RAIN... FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET
WILL BE POSSIBLE THERE. EXPECT THINGS TO CHANGE... BUT AT THIS TIME
IT LOOKS LIKE 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE USING A CONSENSUS
OF MODEL QPF AND SNOW RATIOS.

THIS WILL BE A LONG DURATION EVENT SINCE LIGHT SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY UNTIL THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CLEARS
EASTERN WI.

MODELS ARE SHOWING YET ANOTHER SHORT-LIVED BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR IN
THE WAKE OF THE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH THE REGION WILL RESULT IN
VFR CONDITIONS DURING FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...

HIGH RES VISIBLE IMAGES FROM THU AFTN CONTINUE TO SHOW MUCH OF THE
NEARSHORE WATERS COVERED BY ICE.  COLD TEMPERATURES AND LIGHTER
WINDS EXPECTED TODAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD RESULT IN EXPANSION OF ICE
COVER INTO WESTERN PART OF OPEN WATERS.  NO WIND ISSUES EXPECTED
UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MRC




000
FXUS63 KMKX 270928
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
328 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT - CONFIDENCE...HIGH.

DESPITE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WELL OFF TO THE WEST...WINDS HAVE
DECOUPLED AT NUMEROUS LOCATIONS CENTRAL AND WEST CWA...RESULTING IN
NEGLIGIBLE WIND CHILL AFFECTS.  DESPITE LIGHT SFC WINDS AT THESE
LOCATIONS...TEMPS HAVE NOT BEEN FALLING ALL THAT FAST LIKELY DUE TO
SHALLOW INVERSION.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PASSES JUST TO THE SOUTH OF WI TONIGHT.  THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHTER SFC WINDS...BUT STILL SOME MIXINESS EXPECTED
JUST ABOVE INVERSION...WHICH SHOULD BE A LITTLE DEEPER.  HENCE
EXPECT TEMPS TO BE A FEW DEGREES LOWER TONIGHT AFTER REBOUNDING INTO
THE TEENS TODAY.  PUFFS OF LIGHT WIND WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS
BETWEEN 10 TO 20 BELOW AT TIMES.  WL REISSUE SPS FOR WIND CHILLS BUT
NO ADVY PLANNED DUE TO LIGHTER WINDS.

SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST THROUGH THE DAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
BRING SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR BACK INTO SOUTHERN WI. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE UPPER TEENS. MID CLOUDS WILL APPROACH IN EITHER THE LATE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. THESE CLOUDS WILL DETERMINE THE SAT
NIGHT MIN TEMPS. THE MIN SHOULD OCCUR DURING THE EVENING WITH
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND THEN WARM LATER IN THE NIGHT WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND ARRIVAL OF SNOW.

.LONG TERM...

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO NORTHERN IL AND SOUTHERN WI
AFTER MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH ISENTROPIC
LIFT... WARM AIR ADVECTION... AND THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER
JET. THE STRONGEST FORCING WILL BE OVER CENTRAL IL WITHIN THE 850MB
BAROCLINIC ZONE. SOUTHERN WI WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE
SNOW AREA. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR HOW FAR NORTH THE SNOW WILL
SPREAD INTO WI. THE ILLINOIS BORDER COUNTIES COULD SEE UP TO 2
INCHES WITH THIS SYSTEM... MAINLY SUNDAY MORNING.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS WI SUNDAY AFTERNOON
WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT CONTINUED LIGHT SNOW.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS WI SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
LEADING TO CLEAR SKIES... COOL TEMPS AND QUIET WEATHER.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST NEXT WEEK.
RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL LEAD TO WARMER TEMPERATURES
CREEPING INTO SOUTHERN WI. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO IMPACT
THE AREA WILL ARRIVE IN SOUTHERN WI EITHER MONDAY NIGHT /GFS/ OR
TUESDAY MORNING /ECMWF/ AND BRING MAINLY SNOW. THERE IS A PERIOD
WHERE 850MB TEMPS RISE ABOVE FREEZING IN FAR SOUTHEAST WI DURING THE
DAY TUESDAY... SO RAIN OR A MIX OF RAIN... FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET
WILL BE POSSIBLE THERE. EXPECT THINGS TO CHANGE... BUT AT THIS TIME
IT LOOKS LIKE 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE USING A CONSENSUS
OF MODEL QPF AND SNOW RATIOS.

THIS WILL BE A LONG DURATION EVENT SINCE LIGHT SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY UNTIL THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CLEARS
EASTERN WI.

MODELS ARE SHOWING YET ANOTHER SHORT-LIVED BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR IN
THE WAKE OF THE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH THE REGION WILL RESULT IN
VFR CONDITIONS DURING FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...

HIGH RES VISIBLE IMAGES FROM THU AFTN CONTINUE TO SHOW MUCH OF THE
NEARSHORE WATERS COVERED BY ICE.  COLD TEMPERATURES AND LIGHTER
WINDS EXPECTED TODAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD RESULT IN EXPANSION OF ICE
COVER INTO WESTERN PART OF OPEN WATERS.  NO WIND ISSUES EXPECTED
UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MRC





000
FXUS63 KMKX 270328
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
928 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.UPDATE...RAISED LOW TEMPS FOR TNT BY A FEW DEGREES GIVEN THE
CURRENT MILDER TREND IN TEMPS...AND A LITTLE WIND EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AS THE ARCTIC HIGH STAYS OVER THE MO RIVER
VALLEY. ALSO REISSUED THE SPS FOR THE VERY COLD TEMPS TNT INTO FRI
NT.


&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...MO CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL FOR FRI-SAT.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015/

SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT - CONFIDENCE...HIGH

MID LEVEL POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION TRANSLATES TO OUR SOUTH
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. NORTH WINDS WL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY BACK
TOWARDS A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS A
1004 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION. THIS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL INCREASE SUBSIDENCE AND CLEAR OUR SKIES...LEADING TO
VERY CHILLY TEMPERATURES. 925MB TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE NEAR -18 TO -
19 ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LOWS TONIGHT COULD REACH INTO THE TEENS
BELOW ZERO. WIND CHILL VALUES LOOK TO APPROACH 20 BELOW ZERO...BUT
REMAIN ABOVE THIS VALUE. WINDS WL BE EXTREMELY LIGHT...WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS. ISSUED A SPS TO
ADDRESS THE COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.

FRIDAY - CONFIDENCE...HIGH.

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY TO OUR
SOUTH. WITH ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE...AND A FAIRLY DRY AIRMASS MOVING
INTO PLACE...CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY QUIET. WINDS WL STRENGTHEN BY
TOMORROW AFTN AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND CONTINUES TO
BACK TOWARDS A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.

LONG TERM...

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...HIGH

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM INDIANA TO THE EAST COAST. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE NEGATIVE SINGLE
DIGITS EXPECTING WIND CHILL VALUES -15 TO 19 SATURDAY MORNING.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...HIGH

A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
WARM AIR ADVECTION STARTS ON SATURDAY ON SOUTHWEST FLOW. THE MAIN
CORE OF PRECIP WILL BE SOUTH OF THE STATE ASSOCIATED WITH RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF 140 KT JET AND BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE
SOUTH. WEAK 700MB OMEGA MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY BUT
GREATEST FORCING AT THIS LEVEL IS ALSO TO THE SOUTH. MODELS DIFFER
ON THE TIMING OF THE PRECIP. THE ECMWF IS THE FASTEST BRINGING IT IN
SATURDAY NIGHT BUT ALL MODELS SHOW LIGHT SNOW ON SUNDAY. THE FAR
SOUTH COULD SEE A COUPLE INCHES. UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING WITH DRY WEATHER OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT- CONFIDENCE...MODERATE

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS OVERHEAD ON MONDAY AS A 500MB RIDGE SETS UP
OVER THE REGION. HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 555MB. LOW
PRESSURE IS THEN SHOWN TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MOVE
NEAR OR ACROSS SOUTHEAST WI ON TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT. THE 12
ECMWF HAS COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS LOW TRACK. THERE WILL BE
PLENTY OF LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 150 KT JET
AND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE. PRECIP IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. PRECIP TYPE IS UNCERTAIN. THE GFS IS STRONGER...QUICKER...AND
WARMER WITH THE SYSTEM.

STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS
SHOWS LOW LEVEL TEMPS REACHING 3-6 DEG C ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO
THIRDS OF THE CWA YIELDING RAIN TUESDAY. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN
ARE COLDER INDICATING SNOW OR SLEET IN FAR SE WI. THERE IS BETTER
AGREEMENT ON SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA. MODEL
CONSENSUS INDICATES HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S ON TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...HIGH

HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THE REGION AS A DEEP
TROUGH DROPS ACROSS THE STATE. MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES WEST
NORTHWEST BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AS A STRATO CU DECK WL DISSIPATE LATER
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES FLATTEN OUT BY
EARLY THIS EVENING. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO BRING
SUBSIDENCE TO THE REGION...ASSISTING IN DISSIPATING CLOUDS. THIS
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ALSO HELP TO SHIFT THE WINDS FROM A MORE
NORTHERLY DIRECTION THIS AFTN AND EVENING TO A MORE WESTERLY
DIRECTION LATER TONIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL BE COLD TNGT AS WELL AS THE
CLOUDS DISSIPATE AND CLEARER SKIES TAKE HOLD.

MARINE...

WINDS WL CONTINUE TO SHIFT FROM A MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION TO THE
NORTHWEST DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WL MOVE INTO THE REGION. GUSTS WL BE IN THE UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS INTO THE TEENS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. VERY CHILLY
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN PLACE LATER TONIGHT AS WINDS WEAKEN AND SKIES
CLEAR OVER THE REGION.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEHRING
TONIGHT/FRIDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...JTS
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MARQUARDT




000
FXUS63 KMKX 270328
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
928 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.UPDATE...RAISED LOW TEMPS FOR TNT BY A FEW DEGREES GIVEN THE
CURRENT MILDER TREND IN TEMPS...AND A LITTLE WIND EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AS THE ARCTIC HIGH STAYS OVER THE MO RIVER
VALLEY. ALSO REISSUED THE SPS FOR THE VERY COLD TEMPS TNT INTO FRI
NT.


&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...MO CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL FOR FRI-SAT.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015/

SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT - CONFIDENCE...HIGH

MID LEVEL POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION TRANSLATES TO OUR SOUTH
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. NORTH WINDS WL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY BACK
TOWARDS A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS A
1004 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION. THIS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL INCREASE SUBSIDENCE AND CLEAR OUR SKIES...LEADING TO
VERY CHILLY TEMPERATURES. 925MB TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE NEAR -18 TO -
19 ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LOWS TONIGHT COULD REACH INTO THE TEENS
BELOW ZERO. WIND CHILL VALUES LOOK TO APPROACH 20 BELOW ZERO...BUT
REMAIN ABOVE THIS VALUE. WINDS WL BE EXTREMELY LIGHT...WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS. ISSUED A SPS TO
ADDRESS THE COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.

FRIDAY - CONFIDENCE...HIGH.

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY TO OUR
SOUTH. WITH ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE...AND A FAIRLY DRY AIRMASS MOVING
INTO PLACE...CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY QUIET. WINDS WL STRENGTHEN BY
TOMORROW AFTN AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND CONTINUES TO
BACK TOWARDS A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.

LONG TERM...

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...HIGH

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM INDIANA TO THE EAST COAST. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE NEGATIVE SINGLE
DIGITS EXPECTING WIND CHILL VALUES -15 TO 19 SATURDAY MORNING.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...HIGH

A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
WARM AIR ADVECTION STARTS ON SATURDAY ON SOUTHWEST FLOW. THE MAIN
CORE OF PRECIP WILL BE SOUTH OF THE STATE ASSOCIATED WITH RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF 140 KT JET AND BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE
SOUTH. WEAK 700MB OMEGA MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY BUT
GREATEST FORCING AT THIS LEVEL IS ALSO TO THE SOUTH. MODELS DIFFER
ON THE TIMING OF THE PRECIP. THE ECMWF IS THE FASTEST BRINGING IT IN
SATURDAY NIGHT BUT ALL MODELS SHOW LIGHT SNOW ON SUNDAY. THE FAR
SOUTH COULD SEE A COUPLE INCHES. UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING WITH DRY WEATHER OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT- CONFIDENCE...MODERATE

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS OVERHEAD ON MONDAY AS A 500MB RIDGE SETS UP
OVER THE REGION. HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 555MB. LOW
PRESSURE IS THEN SHOWN TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MOVE
NEAR OR ACROSS SOUTHEAST WI ON TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT. THE 12
ECMWF HAS COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS LOW TRACK. THERE WILL BE
PLENTY OF LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 150 KT JET
AND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE. PRECIP IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. PRECIP TYPE IS UNCERTAIN. THE GFS IS STRONGER...QUICKER...AND
WARMER WITH THE SYSTEM.

STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS
SHOWS LOW LEVEL TEMPS REACHING 3-6 DEG C ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO
THIRDS OF THE CWA YIELDING RAIN TUESDAY. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN
ARE COLDER INDICATING SNOW OR SLEET IN FAR SE WI. THERE IS BETTER
AGREEMENT ON SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA. MODEL
CONSENSUS INDICATES HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S ON TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...HIGH

HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THE REGION AS A DEEP
TROUGH DROPS ACROSS THE STATE. MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES WEST
NORTHWEST BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AS A STRATO CU DECK WL DISSIPATE LATER
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES FLATTEN OUT BY
EARLY THIS EVENING. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO BRING
SUBSIDENCE TO THE REGION...ASSISTING IN DISSIPATING CLOUDS. THIS
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ALSO HELP TO SHIFT THE WINDS FROM A MORE
NORTHERLY DIRECTION THIS AFTN AND EVENING TO A MORE WESTERLY
DIRECTION LATER TONIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL BE COLD TNGT AS WELL AS THE
CLOUDS DISSIPATE AND CLEARER SKIES TAKE HOLD.

MARINE...

WINDS WL CONTINUE TO SHIFT FROM A MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION TO THE
NORTHWEST DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WL MOVE INTO THE REGION. GUSTS WL BE IN THE UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS INTO THE TEENS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. VERY CHILLY
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN PLACE LATER TONIGHT AS WINDS WEAKEN AND SKIES
CLEAR OVER THE REGION.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEHRING
TONIGHT/FRIDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...JTS
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MARQUARDT





000
FXUS63 KMKX 262126
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
326 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...

.TONIGHT - CONFIDENCE...HIGH

MID LEVEL POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION TRANSLATES TO OUR SOUTH
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. NORTH WINDS WL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY BACK
TOWARDS A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS A
1004 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION. THIS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL INCREASE SUBSIDENCE AND CLEAR OUR SKIES...LEADING TO
VERY CHILLY TEMPERATURES. 925MB TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE NEAR -18 TO -
19 ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LOWS TONIGHT COULD REACH INTO THE TEENS
BELOW ZERO. WIND CHILL VALUES LOOK TO APPROACH 20 BELOW ZERO...BUT
REMAIN ABOVE THIS VALUE. WINDS WL BE EXTREMELY LIGHT...WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS. ISSUED A SPS TO
ADDRESS THE COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.

.FRIDAY - CONFIDENCE...HIGH.

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY TO OUR
SOUTH. WITH ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE...AND A FAIRLY DRY AIRMASS MOVING
INTO PLACE...CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY QUIET. WINDS WL STRENGTHEN BY
TOMORROW AFTN AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND CONTINUES TO
BACK TOWARDS A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.

.LONG TERM...

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...HIGH

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM INDIANA TO THE EAST COAST. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE NEGATIVE SINGLE
DIGITS EXPECTING WIND CHILL VALUES -15 TO 19 SATURDAY MORNING.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...HIGH

A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
WARM AIR ADVECTION STARTS ON SATURDAY ON SOUTHWEST FLOW. THE MAIN
CORE OF PRECIP WILL BE SOUTH OF THE STATE ASSOCIATED WITH RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF 140 KT JET AND BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE
SOUTH. WEAK 700MB OMEGA MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY BUT
GREATEST FORCING AT THIS LEVEL IS ALSO TO THE SOUTH. MODELS DIFFER
ON THE TIMING OF THE PRECIP. THE ECMWF IS THE FASTEST BRINGING IT IN
SATURDAY NIGHT BUT ALL MODELS SHOW LIGHT SNOW ON SUNDAY. THE FAR
SOUTH COULD SEE A COUPLE INCHES. UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING WITH DRY WEATHER OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT- CONFIDENCE...MODERATE

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS OVERHEAD ON MONDAY AS A 500MB RIDGE SETS UP
OVER THE REGION. HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 555MB. LOW
PRESSURE IS THEN SHOWN TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MOVE
NEAR OR ACROSS SOUTHEAST WI ON TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT. THE 12
ECMWF HAS COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS LOW TRACK. THERE WILL BE
PLENTY OF LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 150 KT JET
AND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE. PRECIP IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. PRECIP TYPE IS UNCERTAIN. THE GFS IS STRONGER...QUICKER...AND
WARMER WITH THE SYSTEM.

STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS
SHOWS LOW LEVEL TEMPS REACHING 3-6 DEG C ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO
THIRDS OF THE CWA YIELDING RAIN TUESDAY. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN
ARE COLDER INDICATING SNOW OR SLEET IN FAR SE WI. THERE IS BETTER
AGREEMENT ON SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA. MODEL
CONSENSUS INDICATES HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S ON TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...HIGH

HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THE REGION AS A DEEP
TROUGH DROPS ACROSS THE STATE. MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES WEST
NORTHWEST BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AS A STRATO CU DECK WL DISSIPATE LATER
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES FLATTEN OUT BY
EARLY THIS EVENING. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO BRING
SUBSIDENCE TO THE REGION...ASSISTING IN DISSIPATING CLOUDS. THIS
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ALSO HELP TO SHIFT THE WINDS FROM A MORE
NORTHERLY DIRECTION THIS AFTN AND EVENING TO A MORE WESTERLY
DIRECTION LATER TONIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL BE COLD TNGT AS WELL AS THE
CLOUDS DISSIPATE AND CLEARER SKIES TAKE HOLD.

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS WL CONTINUE TO SHIFT FROM A MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION TO THE
NORTHWEST DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WL MOVE INTO THE REGION. GUSTS WL BE IN THE UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS INTO THE TEENS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. VERY CHILLY
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN PLACE LATER TONIGHT AS WINDS WEAKEN AND SKIES
CLEAR OVER THE REGION.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TONIGHT/FRIDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...JTS
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MARQUARDT




000
FXUS63 KMKX 262126
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
326 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...

.TONIGHT - CONFIDENCE...HIGH

MID LEVEL POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION TRANSLATES TO OUR SOUTH
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. NORTH WINDS WL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY BACK
TOWARDS A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS A
1004 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION. THIS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL INCREASE SUBSIDENCE AND CLEAR OUR SKIES...LEADING TO
VERY CHILLY TEMPERATURES. 925MB TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE NEAR -18 TO -
19 ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LOWS TONIGHT COULD REACH INTO THE TEENS
BELOW ZERO. WIND CHILL VALUES LOOK TO APPROACH 20 BELOW ZERO...BUT
REMAIN ABOVE THIS VALUE. WINDS WL BE EXTREMELY LIGHT...WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS. ISSUED A SPS TO
ADDRESS THE COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.

.FRIDAY - CONFIDENCE...HIGH.

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY TO OUR
SOUTH. WITH ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE...AND A FAIRLY DRY AIRMASS MOVING
INTO PLACE...CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY QUIET. WINDS WL STRENGTHEN BY
TOMORROW AFTN AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND CONTINUES TO
BACK TOWARDS A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.

.LONG TERM...

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...HIGH

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM INDIANA TO THE EAST COAST. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE NEGATIVE SINGLE
DIGITS EXPECTING WIND CHILL VALUES -15 TO 19 SATURDAY MORNING.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...HIGH

A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
WARM AIR ADVECTION STARTS ON SATURDAY ON SOUTHWEST FLOW. THE MAIN
CORE OF PRECIP WILL BE SOUTH OF THE STATE ASSOCIATED WITH RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF 140 KT JET AND BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE
SOUTH. WEAK 700MB OMEGA MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY BUT
GREATEST FORCING AT THIS LEVEL IS ALSO TO THE SOUTH. MODELS DIFFER
ON THE TIMING OF THE PRECIP. THE ECMWF IS THE FASTEST BRINGING IT IN
SATURDAY NIGHT BUT ALL MODELS SHOW LIGHT SNOW ON SUNDAY. THE FAR
SOUTH COULD SEE A COUPLE INCHES. UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING WITH DRY WEATHER OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT- CONFIDENCE...MODERATE

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS OVERHEAD ON MONDAY AS A 500MB RIDGE SETS UP
OVER THE REGION. HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 555MB. LOW
PRESSURE IS THEN SHOWN TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MOVE
NEAR OR ACROSS SOUTHEAST WI ON TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT. THE 12
ECMWF HAS COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS LOW TRACK. THERE WILL BE
PLENTY OF LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 150 KT JET
AND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE. PRECIP IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. PRECIP TYPE IS UNCERTAIN. THE GFS IS STRONGER...QUICKER...AND
WARMER WITH THE SYSTEM.

STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS
SHOWS LOW LEVEL TEMPS REACHING 3-6 DEG C ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO
THIRDS OF THE CWA YIELDING RAIN TUESDAY. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN
ARE COLDER INDICATING SNOW OR SLEET IN FAR SE WI. THERE IS BETTER
AGREEMENT ON SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA. MODEL
CONSENSUS INDICATES HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S ON TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...HIGH

HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THE REGION AS A DEEP
TROUGH DROPS ACROSS THE STATE. MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES WEST
NORTHWEST BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AS A STRATO CU DECK WL DISSIPATE LATER
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES FLATTEN OUT BY
EARLY THIS EVENING. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO BRING
SUBSIDENCE TO THE REGION...ASSISTING IN DISSIPATING CLOUDS. THIS
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ALSO HELP TO SHIFT THE WINDS FROM A MORE
NORTHERLY DIRECTION THIS AFTN AND EVENING TO A MORE WESTERLY
DIRECTION LATER TONIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL BE COLD TNGT AS WELL AS THE
CLOUDS DISSIPATE AND CLEARER SKIES TAKE HOLD.

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS WL CONTINUE TO SHIFT FROM A MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION TO THE
NORTHWEST DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WL MOVE INTO THE REGION. GUSTS WL BE IN THE UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS INTO THE TEENS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. VERY CHILLY
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN PLACE LATER TONIGHT AS WINDS WEAKEN AND SKIES
CLEAR OVER THE REGION.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TONIGHT/FRIDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...JTS
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MARQUARDT





000
FXUS63 KMKX 261540 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
940 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.UPDATE...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR RACINE AND KENOSHA
COUNTIES UNTIL 16Z THIS MORNING. LOOKS LIKE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SQUALL IS STARTING TO SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST AS THE WINDS HAVE
STARTED BACKING TO A MORE NORTHWEST DIRECTION. THIS SHOULD HELP
MOVE THE SNOW SQUALL TO THE SOUTHEAST. MESO MODELS ALSO INDICATE
THE SNOW SQUALL WILL TAPER OFF RAPIDLY AND MOVE OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATER THIS MORNING. EASTERN PORTIONS OF RACINE AND
KENOSHA WILL STILL BE DEALING WITH SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW FOR
THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON AS SOME LOW CLOUDS
WILL STICK AROUND THE AREA. ENW SHOULD SEE THE CURRENT LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SQUALL BAND QUICKLY SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...MAINLY FEW TO SCT WILL
PREVAIL THIS AFTN. SOME BKN SKIES COULD OCCUR AS LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES STEEPEN THIS AFTN. WINDS WILL STAY AT MORE NORTHERLY
DIRECTION THIS AFTN AND SHIFT MORE TO THE WEST AS ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN MOVE INTO THE REGION. COLD TEMPERATURES
WILL RETURN LATER TONIGHT. HOWEVER...WINDS SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT
TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 527 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015/

UPDATE...DECIDED TO EXTEND LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVY FOR MILWAUKEE CO
UNTIL 14Z AND RACINE/KENOSHA COUNTIES UNTIL 16Z. KMKX/TMKE RADARS
SHOW ENHANCED LAKE BAND CONTINUING TO REGENERATE AND EXTENDS ABOUT
30 MILES NORTHEAST OF KMKE AND IS MOVING STEADILY SSW AT 20KTS.
THIS WILL PROBABLY BE THE LAST ROUND OF HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS IN
SOUTHEAST MKE COUNTY BUT MAY STILL CLIP ERN RACINE/KENOSHA
COUNTIES THROUGH LATE MRNG. LATEST RAP SHOWS ENHANCED CONVERGENCE
AND OMEGA WEAKENING AND SLIDING SOUTHEAST OF KENOSHA CO BY LATE
MRNG.

&&

.TODAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

PULLED TRIGGER ON LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVY FOR THREE SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES EARLIER. OBSERVER IN OAK CREEK HAD REPORTED 4 INCHES OF
FLUFF BEFORE LAKE BAND HAD DEVELOPED. AROUND 07Z...IMPRESSIVE LAKE
EFFECT ENHANCED BAND RAPIDLY DEVELOPED OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS
AND SPREAD INLAND BY 0730Z. THIS WAS WHEN THE STRONGEST LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND PEAK LIFT WERE TO OCCUR OVER THE NEARSHORE
WATERS...SPREADING INLAND THRU PARTS OF THE THREE COUNTIES.

WITH BAND ORIENTATED NNE TO SSW AND MOVING TO THE SSW...HIGH SNOW
LIQUID RATIOS WOULD RESULT IN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES...ADDING TO
THE ALREADY 1 TO 3 INCHES THAT HAD ALREADY OCCURRED OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA.

LATEST RAP13 CONTINUES TO SHOW OMEGA LINGERING OVER SE MKE COUNTY
UNTIL ABOUT 14Z AND ERN RAC/KEN COUNTIES UNTIL 15Z OR SO. HOWEVER
DURING THIS TIME...LOW LEVEL FLOW BEGINS BACKING MORE TO THE NORTH
TO NORTHEAST...DECREASING FETCH AND LOW LEVEL RH ALSO DECREASES.
MAY NEED TO EXTEND LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVY FOR AN HOUR OR TWO
PENDING STRENGTH OF LAKE BAND.

OTHERWISE...GRADUAL CLEARING SHOULD CONTINUE AS DRIER AIR SLIDES
ACROSS SRN WI TODAY. MAY BE SOME LINGERING SC FOR A TIME THIS AFTN
DUE TO LINGERING LOW LEVEL RH FLOW AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES.

.TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS WEST OF WI OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS
SHORT WAVE RIDGING SETTLES IN. INCREASING SUBSIDENCE SHOULD CLEAR
SKIES OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS NORTHWEST. WITH LAKE
SUPERIOR PRETTY WELL ICE-COVERED...NOT THINKING MUCH THREAT OF
LAKE CLOUDS FROM THE NORTH.

ENOUGH MIXINESS OF 3 TO 5 KTS OVERNIGHT...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM
4 TO 12 BELOW...TO RESULT IN A THREE HOUR WINDOW OF WIND CHILLS
AROUND 20 BELOW. WL LET DAY SHIFT MAKE FINAL DECISION ON WIND
CHILL ADVY.

.SHORT TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TAKING ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE FROM
WESTERN IOWA TO NORTHERN OHIO FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH
WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER BUT CONTINUED COLD TEMPERATURES. GIVEN
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND STRONG INVERSION JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE...COULD SEE RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH LOWS EVEN COLDER THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT.

WIND CHILLS AGAIN HOVER AROUND 20 BELOW ZERO FOR A COUPLE
HOURS...THOUGH WINDS MAY BE TOO LIGHT IF DECOUPLING OCCURS. LATER
SHIFTS CAN EVALUATE NEED FOR WIND CHILL ADVISORY.

WARM AIR ADVECTION SLOWLY DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT...AS THE HIGH MOVES FURTHER EAST OF THE REGION.
DEEP MOISTURE SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT...ALONG WITH INITIAL 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM. SURFACE COLD
FRONT THEN SHIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY. TIMING OF
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE VARIES SOMEWHAT ON THE MODELS. UPWARD VERTICAL
MOTION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY IS WEAK TO MODEST...THOUGH DOES
TAP DENDRITE SNOW GROWTH ZONE.

SREF PROBABILITIES OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ARE OVER 90
PERCENT FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. THUS...RAISED POPS ESPECIALLY LATER
SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH LIKELY VALUES IN THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. MAY
NEED EVEN HIGHER POPS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING IN LATER
FORECASTS...IF MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT. COULD SEE 1 TO 2 INCHES
OF SNOW ACCUMULATION NORTH...TO 2 TO 3 INCHES SOUTH...HIGHEST
AMOUNTS FAR SOUTHEAST.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS MEDIUM.

MAIN ISSUE THIS PERIOD WILL BE SYSTEM FOR TUESDAY AND
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS/TYPES. GFS/ECMWF ARE IN SOMEWHAT BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE SURFACE LOW TRACK. THEY TAKE LOW FROM CENTRAL
KANSAS TO CENTRAL ILLINOIS TUESDAY...THEN INTO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. GOOD AMOUNT OF WARM AIR ADVECTION
OCCURS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION
AND A 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM PASSAGE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

MODELS SHOWING THE BEST UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION OVER THE AREA
TUESDAY. GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SUGGESTING SOME MIXINESS OF
FREEZING RAIN/SLEET IN THE FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST TUESDAY. RAISED
POPS FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGHEST ON TUESDAY.
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE...WITH SLEET/FREEZING RAIN
POSSIBLE...SO STAY TUNED.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR
     WIZ071-072.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR LMZ645-646.

&&

$$
UPDATE...JTS
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WOOD





000
FXUS63 KMKX 261540 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
940 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.UPDATE...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR RACINE AND KENOSHA
COUNTIES UNTIL 16Z THIS MORNING. LOOKS LIKE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SQUALL IS STARTING TO SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST AS THE WINDS HAVE
STARTED BACKING TO A MORE NORTHWEST DIRECTION. THIS SHOULD HELP
MOVE THE SNOW SQUALL TO THE SOUTHEAST. MESO MODELS ALSO INDICATE
THE SNOW SQUALL WILL TAPER OFF RAPIDLY AND MOVE OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATER THIS MORNING. EASTERN PORTIONS OF RACINE AND
KENOSHA WILL STILL BE DEALING WITH SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW FOR
THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON AS SOME LOW CLOUDS
WILL STICK AROUND THE AREA. ENW SHOULD SEE THE CURRENT LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SQUALL BAND QUICKLY SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...MAINLY FEW TO SCT WILL
PREVAIL THIS AFTN. SOME BKN SKIES COULD OCCUR AS LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES STEEPEN THIS AFTN. WINDS WILL STAY AT MORE NORTHERLY
DIRECTION THIS AFTN AND SHIFT MORE TO THE WEST AS ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN MOVE INTO THE REGION. COLD TEMPERATURES
WILL RETURN LATER TONIGHT. HOWEVER...WINDS SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT
TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 527 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015/

UPDATE...DECIDED TO EXTEND LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVY FOR MILWAUKEE CO
UNTIL 14Z AND RACINE/KENOSHA COUNTIES UNTIL 16Z. KMKX/TMKE RADARS
SHOW ENHANCED LAKE BAND CONTINUING TO REGENERATE AND EXTENDS ABOUT
30 MILES NORTHEAST OF KMKE AND IS MOVING STEADILY SSW AT 20KTS.
THIS WILL PROBABLY BE THE LAST ROUND OF HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS IN
SOUTHEAST MKE COUNTY BUT MAY STILL CLIP ERN RACINE/KENOSHA
COUNTIES THROUGH LATE MRNG. LATEST RAP SHOWS ENHANCED CONVERGENCE
AND OMEGA WEAKENING AND SLIDING SOUTHEAST OF KENOSHA CO BY LATE
MRNG.

&&

.TODAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

PULLED TRIGGER ON LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVY FOR THREE SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES EARLIER. OBSERVER IN OAK CREEK HAD REPORTED 4 INCHES OF
FLUFF BEFORE LAKE BAND HAD DEVELOPED. AROUND 07Z...IMPRESSIVE LAKE
EFFECT ENHANCED BAND RAPIDLY DEVELOPED OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS
AND SPREAD INLAND BY 0730Z. THIS WAS WHEN THE STRONGEST LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND PEAK LIFT WERE TO OCCUR OVER THE NEARSHORE
WATERS...SPREADING INLAND THRU PARTS OF THE THREE COUNTIES.

WITH BAND ORIENTATED NNE TO SSW AND MOVING TO THE SSW...HIGH SNOW
LIQUID RATIOS WOULD RESULT IN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES...ADDING TO
THE ALREADY 1 TO 3 INCHES THAT HAD ALREADY OCCURRED OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA.

LATEST RAP13 CONTINUES TO SHOW OMEGA LINGERING OVER SE MKE COUNTY
UNTIL ABOUT 14Z AND ERN RAC/KEN COUNTIES UNTIL 15Z OR SO. HOWEVER
DURING THIS TIME...LOW LEVEL FLOW BEGINS BACKING MORE TO THE NORTH
TO NORTHEAST...DECREASING FETCH AND LOW LEVEL RH ALSO DECREASES.
MAY NEED TO EXTEND LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVY FOR AN HOUR OR TWO
PENDING STRENGTH OF LAKE BAND.

OTHERWISE...GRADUAL CLEARING SHOULD CONTINUE AS DRIER AIR SLIDES
ACROSS SRN WI TODAY. MAY BE SOME LINGERING SC FOR A TIME THIS AFTN
DUE TO LINGERING LOW LEVEL RH FLOW AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES.

.TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS WEST OF WI OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS
SHORT WAVE RIDGING SETTLES IN. INCREASING SUBSIDENCE SHOULD CLEAR
SKIES OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS NORTHWEST. WITH LAKE
SUPERIOR PRETTY WELL ICE-COVERED...NOT THINKING MUCH THREAT OF
LAKE CLOUDS FROM THE NORTH.

ENOUGH MIXINESS OF 3 TO 5 KTS OVERNIGHT...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM
4 TO 12 BELOW...TO RESULT IN A THREE HOUR WINDOW OF WIND CHILLS
AROUND 20 BELOW. WL LET DAY SHIFT MAKE FINAL DECISION ON WIND
CHILL ADVY.

.SHORT TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TAKING ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE FROM
WESTERN IOWA TO NORTHERN OHIO FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH
WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER BUT CONTINUED COLD TEMPERATURES. GIVEN
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND STRONG INVERSION JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE...COULD SEE RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH LOWS EVEN COLDER THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT.

WIND CHILLS AGAIN HOVER AROUND 20 BELOW ZERO FOR A COUPLE
HOURS...THOUGH WINDS MAY BE TOO LIGHT IF DECOUPLING OCCURS. LATER
SHIFTS CAN EVALUATE NEED FOR WIND CHILL ADVISORY.

WARM AIR ADVECTION SLOWLY DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT...AS THE HIGH MOVES FURTHER EAST OF THE REGION.
DEEP MOISTURE SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT...ALONG WITH INITIAL 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM. SURFACE COLD
FRONT THEN SHIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY. TIMING OF
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE VARIES SOMEWHAT ON THE MODELS. UPWARD VERTICAL
MOTION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY IS WEAK TO MODEST...THOUGH DOES
TAP DENDRITE SNOW GROWTH ZONE.

SREF PROBABILITIES OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ARE OVER 90
PERCENT FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. THUS...RAISED POPS ESPECIALLY LATER
SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH LIKELY VALUES IN THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. MAY
NEED EVEN HIGHER POPS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING IN LATER
FORECASTS...IF MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT. COULD SEE 1 TO 2 INCHES
OF SNOW ACCUMULATION NORTH...TO 2 TO 3 INCHES SOUTH...HIGHEST
AMOUNTS FAR SOUTHEAST.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS MEDIUM.

MAIN ISSUE THIS PERIOD WILL BE SYSTEM FOR TUESDAY AND
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS/TYPES. GFS/ECMWF ARE IN SOMEWHAT BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE SURFACE LOW TRACK. THEY TAKE LOW FROM CENTRAL
KANSAS TO CENTRAL ILLINOIS TUESDAY...THEN INTO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. GOOD AMOUNT OF WARM AIR ADVECTION
OCCURS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION
AND A 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM PASSAGE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

MODELS SHOWING THE BEST UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION OVER THE AREA
TUESDAY. GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SUGGESTING SOME MIXINESS OF
FREEZING RAIN/SLEET IN THE FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST TUESDAY. RAISED
POPS FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGHEST ON TUESDAY.
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE...WITH SLEET/FREEZING RAIN
POSSIBLE...SO STAY TUNED.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR
     WIZ071-072.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR LMZ645-646.

&&

$$
UPDATE...JTS
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WOOD




000
FXUS63 KMKX 261127
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
527 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.UPDATE...DECIDED TO EXTEND LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVY FOR MILWAUKEE CO
UNTIL 14Z AND RACINE/KENOSHA COUNTIES UNTIL 16Z. KMKX/TMKE RADARS
SHOW ENHANCED LAKE BAND CONTINUING TO REGENERATE AND EXTENDS ABOUT
30 MILES NORTHEAST OF KMKE AND IS MOVING STEADILY SSW AT 20KTS.
THIS WILL PROBABLY BE THE LAST ROUND OF HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS IN
SOUTHEAST MKE COUNTY BUT MAY STILL CLIP ERN RACINE/KENOSHA
COUNTIES THROUGH LATE MRNG. LATEST RAP SHOWS ENHANCED CONVERGENCE
AND OMEGA WEAKENING AND SLIDING SOUTHEAST OF KENOSHA CO BY LATE
MRNG.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR WIZ066.

     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR
     WIZ071-072.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR LMZ645-646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MBK





000
FXUS63 KMKX 261127
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
527 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.UPDATE...DECIDED TO EXTEND LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVY FOR MILWAUKEE CO
UNTIL 14Z AND RACINE/KENOSHA COUNTIES UNTIL 16Z. KMKX/TMKE RADARS
SHOW ENHANCED LAKE BAND CONTINUING TO REGENERATE AND EXTENDS ABOUT
30 MILES NORTHEAST OF KMKE AND IS MOVING STEADILY SSW AT 20KTS.
THIS WILL PROBABLY BE THE LAST ROUND OF HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS IN
SOUTHEAST MKE COUNTY BUT MAY STILL CLIP ERN RACINE/KENOSHA
COUNTIES THROUGH LATE MRNG. LATEST RAP SHOWS ENHANCED CONVERGENCE
AND OMEGA WEAKENING AND SLIDING SOUTHEAST OF KENOSHA CO BY LATE
MRNG.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR WIZ066.

     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR
     WIZ071-072.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR LMZ645-646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MBK




000
FXUS63 KMKX 260930
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
330 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.TODAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

PULLED TRIGGER ON LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVY FOR THREE SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES EARLIER. OBSERVER IN OAK CREEK HAD REPORTED 4 INCHES OF
FLUFF BEFORE LAKE BAND HAD DEVELOPED. AROUND 07Z...IMPRESSIVE LAKE
EFFECT ENHANCED BAND RAPIDLY DEVELOPED OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS
AND SPREAD INLAND BY 0730Z. THIS WAS WHEN THE STRONGEST LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND PEAK LIFT WERE TO OCCUR OVER THE NEARSHORE
WATERS...SPREADING INLAND THRU PARTS OF THE THREE COUNTIES.

WITH BAND ORIENTATED NNE TO SSW AND MOVING TO THE SSW...HIGH SNOW
LIQUID RATIOS WOULD RESULT IN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES...ADDING TO
THE ALREADY 1 TO 3 INCHES THAT HAD ALREADY OCCURRED OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA.

LATEST RAP13 CONTINUES TO SHOW OMEGA LINGERING OVER SE MKE COUNTY
UNTIL ABOUT 14Z AND ERN RAC/KEN COUNTIES UNTIL 15Z OR SO. HOWEVER
DURING THIS TIME...LOW LEVEL FLOW BEGINS BACKING MORE TO THE NORTH
TO NORTHEAST...DECREASING FETCH AND LOW LEVEL RH ALSO DECREASES.
MAY NEED TO EXTEND LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVY FOR AN HOUR OR TWO
PENDING STRENGTH OF LAKE BAND.

OTHERWISE...GRADUAL CLEARING SHOULD CONTINUE AS DRIER AIR SLIDES
ACROSS SRN WI TODAY. MAY BE SOME LINGERING SC FOR A TIME THIS AFTN
DUE TO LINGERING LOW LEVEL RH FLOW AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES.

.TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS WEST OF WI OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS
SHORT WAVE RIDGING SETTLES IN. INCREASING SUBSIDENCE SHOULD CLEAR
SKIES OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS NORTHWEST. WITH LAKE
SUPERIOR PRETTY WELL ICE-COVERED...NOT THINKING MUCH THREAT OF
LAKE CLOUDS FROM THE NORTH.

ENOUGH MIXINESS OF 3 TO 5 KTS OVERNIGHT...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM
4 TO 12 BELOW...TO RESULT IN A THREE HOUR WINDOW OF WIND CHILLS
AROUND 20 BELOW. WL LET DAY SHIFT MAKE FINAL DECISION ON WIND
CHILL ADVY.

.SHORT TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TAKING ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE FROM
WESTERN IOWA TO NORTHERN OHIO FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH
WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER BUT CONTINUED COLD TEMPERATURES. GIVEN
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND STRONG INVERSION JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE...COULD SEE RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH LOWS EVEN COLDER THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT.

WIND CHILLS AGAIN HOVER AROUND 20 BELOW ZERO FOR A COUPLE
HOURS...THOUGH WINDS MAY BE TOO LIGHT IF DECOUPLING OCCURS. LATER
SHIFTS CAN EVALUATE NEED FOR WIND CHILL ADVISORY.

WARM AIR ADVECTION SLOWLY DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT...AS THE HIGH MOVES FURTHER EAST OF THE REGION.
DEEP MOISTURE SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT...ALONG WITH INITIAL 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM. SURFACE COLD
FRONT THEN SHIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY. TIMING OF
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE VARIES SOMEWHAT ON THE MODELS. UPWARD VERTICAL
MOTION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY IS WEAK TO MODEST...THOUGH DOES
TAP DENDRITE SNOW GROWTH ZONE.

SREF PROBABILITIES OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ARE OVER 90
PERCENT FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. THUS...RAISED POPS ESPECIALLY LATER
SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH LIKELY VALUES IN THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. MAY
NEED EVEN HIGHER POPS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING IN LATER
FORECASTS...IF MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT. COULD SEE 1 TO 2 INCHES
OF SNOW ACCUMULATION NORTH...TO 2 TO 3 INCHES SOUTH...HIGHEST
AMOUNTS FAR SOUTHEAST.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS MEDIUM.

MAIN ISSUE THIS PERIOD WILL BE SYSTEM FOR TUESDAY AND
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS/TYPES. GFS/ECMWF ARE IN SOMEWHAT BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE SURFACE LOW TRACK. THEY TAKE LOW FROM CENTRAL
KANSAS TO CENTRAL ILLINOIS TUESDAY...THEN INTO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. GOOD AMOUNT OF WARM AIR ADVECTION
OCCURS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION
AND A 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM PASSAGE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

MODELS SHOWING THE BEST UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION OVER THE AREA
TUESDAY. GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SUGGESTING SOME MIXINESS OF
FREEZING RAIN/SLEET IN THE FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST TUESDAY. RAISED
POPS FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGHEST ON TUESDAY.
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE...WITH SLEET/FREEZING RAIN
POSSIBLE...SO STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS MORNING AT KMKE AND
BY MID-MRNG AT KENW. EXPECT CIGS AND VSBYS TO RISE TO VFR SHORTLY
THEREAFTER. MAY BE SOME FEW-SCT SC LATER TODAY DUE TO LINGERING
LOW LEVEL RH AND STRONG LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

&&

.MARINE...

GUSTY WINDS ASSOCD WITH SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS
SHOULD SETTLE DOWN EARLY THIS MORNING AS SNOW SHOWERS DIMINISH AND
PRESSURE GRADIENT GRADUALLY WEAKENS. DUE TO LIMITED TO NO TRAFFIC
AND BORDERLINE EVENT AFT 12Z...WL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING SMALL CRAFT
ADVY FOR SRN ZONES.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     WIZ066.

     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR WIZ071-
     072.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR LMZ645-646.

&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WOOD




000
FXUS63 KMKX 260930
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
330 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.TODAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

PULLED TRIGGER ON LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVY FOR THREE SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES EARLIER. OBSERVER IN OAK CREEK HAD REPORTED 4 INCHES OF
FLUFF BEFORE LAKE BAND HAD DEVELOPED. AROUND 07Z...IMPRESSIVE LAKE
EFFECT ENHANCED BAND RAPIDLY DEVELOPED OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS
AND SPREAD INLAND BY 0730Z. THIS WAS WHEN THE STRONGEST LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND PEAK LIFT WERE TO OCCUR OVER THE NEARSHORE
WATERS...SPREADING INLAND THRU PARTS OF THE THREE COUNTIES.

WITH BAND ORIENTATED NNE TO SSW AND MOVING TO THE SSW...HIGH SNOW
LIQUID RATIOS WOULD RESULT IN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES...ADDING TO
THE ALREADY 1 TO 3 INCHES THAT HAD ALREADY OCCURRED OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA.

LATEST RAP13 CONTINUES TO SHOW OMEGA LINGERING OVER SE MKE COUNTY
UNTIL ABOUT 14Z AND ERN RAC/KEN COUNTIES UNTIL 15Z OR SO. HOWEVER
DURING THIS TIME...LOW LEVEL FLOW BEGINS BACKING MORE TO THE NORTH
TO NORTHEAST...DECREASING FETCH AND LOW LEVEL RH ALSO DECREASES.
MAY NEED TO EXTEND LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVY FOR AN HOUR OR TWO
PENDING STRENGTH OF LAKE BAND.

OTHERWISE...GRADUAL CLEARING SHOULD CONTINUE AS DRIER AIR SLIDES
ACROSS SRN WI TODAY. MAY BE SOME LINGERING SC FOR A TIME THIS AFTN
DUE TO LINGERING LOW LEVEL RH FLOW AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES.

.TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS WEST OF WI OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS
SHORT WAVE RIDGING SETTLES IN. INCREASING SUBSIDENCE SHOULD CLEAR
SKIES OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS NORTHWEST. WITH LAKE
SUPERIOR PRETTY WELL ICE-COVERED...NOT THINKING MUCH THREAT OF
LAKE CLOUDS FROM THE NORTH.

ENOUGH MIXINESS OF 3 TO 5 KTS OVERNIGHT...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM
4 TO 12 BELOW...TO RESULT IN A THREE HOUR WINDOW OF WIND CHILLS
AROUND 20 BELOW. WL LET DAY SHIFT MAKE FINAL DECISION ON WIND
CHILL ADVY.

.SHORT TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TAKING ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE FROM
WESTERN IOWA TO NORTHERN OHIO FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH
WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER BUT CONTINUED COLD TEMPERATURES. GIVEN
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND STRONG INVERSION JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE...COULD SEE RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH LOWS EVEN COLDER THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT.

WIND CHILLS AGAIN HOVER AROUND 20 BELOW ZERO FOR A COUPLE
HOURS...THOUGH WINDS MAY BE TOO LIGHT IF DECOUPLING OCCURS. LATER
SHIFTS CAN EVALUATE NEED FOR WIND CHILL ADVISORY.

WARM AIR ADVECTION SLOWLY DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT...AS THE HIGH MOVES FURTHER EAST OF THE REGION.
DEEP MOISTURE SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT...ALONG WITH INITIAL 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM. SURFACE COLD
FRONT THEN SHIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY. TIMING OF
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE VARIES SOMEWHAT ON THE MODELS. UPWARD VERTICAL
MOTION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY IS WEAK TO MODEST...THOUGH DOES
TAP DENDRITE SNOW GROWTH ZONE.

SREF PROBABILITIES OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ARE OVER 90
PERCENT FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. THUS...RAISED POPS ESPECIALLY LATER
SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH LIKELY VALUES IN THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. MAY
NEED EVEN HIGHER POPS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING IN LATER
FORECASTS...IF MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT. COULD SEE 1 TO 2 INCHES
OF SNOW ACCUMULATION NORTH...TO 2 TO 3 INCHES SOUTH...HIGHEST
AMOUNTS FAR SOUTHEAST.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS MEDIUM.

MAIN ISSUE THIS PERIOD WILL BE SYSTEM FOR TUESDAY AND
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS/TYPES. GFS/ECMWF ARE IN SOMEWHAT BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE SURFACE LOW TRACK. THEY TAKE LOW FROM CENTRAL
KANSAS TO CENTRAL ILLINOIS TUESDAY...THEN INTO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. GOOD AMOUNT OF WARM AIR ADVECTION
OCCURS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION
AND A 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM PASSAGE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

MODELS SHOWING THE BEST UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION OVER THE AREA
TUESDAY. GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SUGGESTING SOME MIXINESS OF
FREEZING RAIN/SLEET IN THE FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST TUESDAY. RAISED
POPS FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGHEST ON TUESDAY.
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE...WITH SLEET/FREEZING RAIN
POSSIBLE...SO STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS MORNING AT KMKE AND
BY MID-MRNG AT KENW. EXPECT CIGS AND VSBYS TO RISE TO VFR SHORTLY
THEREAFTER. MAY BE SOME FEW-SCT SC LATER TODAY DUE TO LINGERING
LOW LEVEL RH AND STRONG LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

&&

.MARINE...

GUSTY WINDS ASSOCD WITH SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS
SHOULD SETTLE DOWN EARLY THIS MORNING AS SNOW SHOWERS DIMINISH AND
PRESSURE GRADIENT GRADUALLY WEAKENS. DUE TO LIMITED TO NO TRAFFIC
AND BORDERLINE EVENT AFT 12Z...WL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING SMALL CRAFT
ADVY FOR SRN ZONES.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     WIZ066.

     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR WIZ071-
     072.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR LMZ645-646.

&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WOOD





000
FXUS63 KMKX 260340
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
940 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.UPDATE...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL GET BETTER ORGANIZED
DURING THE OVERNIGHT AS A NELY 1000-850 MB FLOW INCREASES TO 20
KTS AND LAKE TO 850 MB TEMP DIFFERENCES REACH 20C. MESOSCALE
MODELS ARE SHOWING THE MOST ENHANCED BANDING OVER SE MKE COUNTY
INTO RAC COUNTY. THE SNOW BAND WILL THEN BEGIN TO SHIFT SEWD AFTER
10Z AND MOSTLY EXIT EASTERN RACINE AND KENOSHA COUNTIES BY 15Z.
WENT WITH A 2-3 INCH FORECAST OVER THESE AREAS USING GUIDANCE
FROM THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW CHART.


&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR KMSN AND
KUES FOR THU AND THU NT AS RELATIVELY DRY AND COLD AIR MOVES INTO
THE REGION. FOR FAR SE WI INCLUDING KMKE AND KENW...LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE PERSISTENT THU AM THROUGH ABOUT 12-15Z. CIGS
WILL MAINLY RANGE FROM 1.0-1.9 KFT ALTHOUGH BRIEFLY LESS THAN 1.0
KFT WITH THE HEAVIER BURSTS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW. VARIABILITY IS
EXPECTED WITH THE VSBYS GIVEN THE SHOWERY NATURE OF LAKE EFFECT
SNOW BUT WILL MAINLY RANGE FROM 1-2SM...SOMETIMES LOWER OR HIGHER.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON OVER FAR SE WI AND CONTINUE THROUGH THU NT.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015/

TONIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
SNOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH SRN WI OVERCOMING
THE DRY LOW LAYERS THAT WERE EVIDENT ON 12Z GRB SOUNDINGS. WITH THE
SATURATION HAS COME VSBYS DOWN TO 1/2 TO 3/4SM AT TIMES...ESP SW OF
KMSN. RADAR ANIMATION CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE MODEL TRENDS OF
KEEPING BEST ACCUMS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-94 CORRIDOR WITH THE
SYSTEMS BEST ACCUMS MISSING US ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS. SO WILL
HAVE HIGHEST POPS AND ACCUMS IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THE OTHER
CONSIDERATION IS THE LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL. TERMINAL DOPPLER HAS
BEEN SHOWING THE BAND HOLDING OFFSHORE THOUGH RAP SOUNDINGS DO SHOW
ONSHORE COMPONENT WITH DELTA T VALUES OF AROUND 21. EQUILIBRIUM
LEVELS ALSO PUSH 6K FEET. HAVE BUMPED UP SOME AMOUNTS A BIT ESP FROM
SE MKE CNTY THROUGH ERN RAC/ENW COUNTIES. WHILE ICE IS EVIDENT
THERE ARE ENOUGH BREAKS/SLUSHINESS TO ALLOW THE NECESSARY
INSTABILITY TO BE REALIZED FOR THE LAKE EFFECT. SO OVERALL 1-2 OF
SYSTEM SNOW FOR MAINLY SRN HALF OF THE CWA WITH SOME ISOLD 3 INCH
AMOUNTS ADJACENT TO THE LAKE SOUTH OF KMKE TO WI/IL BORDER KENW DUE
TO ADDED INFLUENCE OF LAKE EFFECT.

THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
STILL SEEING SOME LINGERING ONSHORE COMPONENT DURING THE MORNING HOURS
SO THE GFS/NAM IDEA OF HANGING ONTO SOME LES POTENTIAL SEEMS REASONABLE.
ENOUGH NNW FETCH ESTABLISHED BY MIDDAY AND INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS TO
REMOVE LES FROM GRIDS. 850 THERMAL TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE WITH 925
TEMPS -17C TO -19C. SO MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS/LOW TEENS.

SHORT TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS MEDIUM.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AND WINDS WILL BACK
FROM A MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION TO THE NORTHWEST AND WEST BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY BE BETWEEN 10 AND 15.
THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS QUIET THROUGH
THE DAY SATURDAY.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

ECMWF IS PROGGING A POTENT 140KT 250 MB JET STREAK TO TRANSLATE
INTO THE REGION EARLY SUNDAY. SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WILL BE IN THE
LEFT EXIT REGION WITH SOME ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. THIS
ALONG WITH A 500 MB SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE LOOKS TO BRING A SYSTEM
INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE GFS LOOKS TO BE MORE
BULLISH WITH THE 500 MB ENERGY THAN THE ECMWF ACCORDING TO THE
LATEST RUNS. 850 MB WARM AIR ADVECTION AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
HELP BRING IN MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR AS WELL. THE BULK OF THE QPF
AMOUNTS LOOK TO STAY FURTHER SOUTH...OUT OF OUR FORECAST
AREA...BUT NOT BY MUCH. ALSO...THE ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN
THE GFS REGARDING THE ONSET OF THE PRECIPITATION BY A FEW HOURS.
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE LOCATION OF THE MAIN QPF AXIS.

ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR ALONG WITH SOME NORTHWEST WINDS AS HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION MONDAY ONCE THE SUNDAY SYSTEM
MOVES OUT.

ANOTHER SYSTEM LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY AS
ANOTHER PULSE OF 500 MB POSITIVE VORTICITY ENERGY TRANSLATES INTO
THE REGION...ALONG WITH BEING IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A
STRONG 180KT 250 MB JET STREAK AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. THERE
IS STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS PARTICULAR EVENT. CURRENT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS COULD BE BETWEEN 5 AND 6 INCHES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. AT THE MOMENT...THE TIMING OF THE BULK OF THE SNOW WILL BE
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
PRECIPITATION TIMING AND AMOUNTS.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...WATER VAPOR SHOWS SHORTWAVE RIDING EAST
FROM IA. MEANWHILE SURFACE LOW DROPPING SE INTO ERN KS/WRN MO.
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SPREADING SNOW ACROSS REMAINDER OF SE
WI THIS AFTN AND EVE WITH ONSHORE COMPONENT LEADING TO SOME LAKE
EFFECT SNOWS AS WELL. SO EXPECTING SOME IFR CIGS AND PERHAPS SOME
LIFR VSBYS...BUT MOSTLY IFR VSBYS. LAKE EFFECT WRAPS UP THURSDAY
MORNING. SO OVERALL 1-2 OF SYSTEM SNOW FOR MAINLY SRN HALF OF THE
CWA WITH SOME ISOLD 3 INCH AMOUNTS NEAR LAKE MI DUE TO ADDED
INFLUENCE OF LAKE EFFECT.

MARINE...WIND GUSTS WL GET CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVY FOR A TIME
TONIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS DUE TO LOW PRESSURE PASSING
WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEHRING
TONIGHT/THURSDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...COLLAR
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...JTS




000
FXUS63 KMKX 252106
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
306 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.TONIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
SNOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH SRN WI OVERCOMING
THE DRY LOW LAYERS THAT WERE EVIDENT ON 12Z GRB SOUNDINGS. WITH THE
SATURATION HAS COME VSBYS DOWN TO 1/2 TO 3/4SM AT TIMES...ESP SW OF
KMSN. RADAR ANIMATION CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE MODEL TRENDS OF
KEEPING BEST ACCUMS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-94 CORRIDOR WITH THE
SYSTEMS BEST ACCUMS MISSING US ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS. SO WILL
HAVE HIGHEST POPS AND ACCUMS IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THE OTHER
CONSIDERATION IS THE LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL. TERMINAL DOPPLER HAS
BEEN SHOWING THE BAND HOLDING OFFSHORE THOUGH RAP SOUNDINGS DO SHOW
ONSHORE COMPONENT WITH DELTA T VALUES OF AROUND 21. EQUILIBRIUM
LEVELS ALSO PUSH 6K FEET. HAVE BUMPED UP SOME AMOUNTS A BIT ESP FROM
SE MKE CNTY THROUGH ERN RAC/ENW COUNTIES. WHILE ICE IS EVIDENT
THERE ARE ENOUGH BREAKS/SLUSHINESS TO ALLOW THE NECESSARY
INSTABILITY TO BE REALIZED FOR THE LAKE EFFECT. SO OVERALL 1-2 OF
SYSTEM SNOW FOR MAINLY SRN HALF OF THE CWA WITH SOME ISOLD 3 INCH
AMOUNTS ADJACENT TO THE LAKE SOUTH OF KMKE TO WI/IL BORDER KENW DUE
TO ADDED INFLUENCE OF LAKE EFFECT.

.THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
STILL SEEING SOME LINGERING ONSHORE COMPONENT DURING THE MORNING HOURS
SO THE GFS/NAM IDEA OF HANGING ONTO SOME LES POTENTIAL SEEMS REASONABLE.
ENOUGH NNW FETCH ESTABLISHED BY MIDDAY AND INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS TO
REMOVE LES FROM GRIDS. 850 THERMAL TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE WITH 925
TEMPS -17C TO -19C. SO MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS/LOW TEENS.

.SHORT TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS MEDIUM.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AND WINDS WILL BACK
FROM A MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION TO THE NORTHWEST AND WEST BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY BE BETWEEN 10 AND 15.
THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS QUIET THROUGH
THE DAY SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

ECMWF IS PROGGING A POTENT 140KT 250 MB JET STREAK TO TRANSLATE
INTO THE REGION EARLY SUNDAY. SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WILL BE IN THE
LEFT EXIT REGION WITH SOME ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. THIS
ALONG WITH A 500 MB SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE LOOKS TO BRING A SYSTEM
INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE GFS LOOKS TO BE MORE
BULLISH WITH THE 500 MB ENERGY THAN THE ECMWF ACCORDING TO THE
LATEST RUNS. 850 MB WARM AIR ADVECTION AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
HELP BRING IN MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR AS WELL. THE BULK OF THE QPF
AMOUNTS LOOK TO STAY FURTHER SOUTH...OUT OF OUR FORECAST
AREA...BUT NOT BY MUCH. ALSO...THE ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN
THE GFS REGARDING THE ONSET OF THE PRECIPITATION BY A FEW HOURS.
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE LOCATION OF THE MAIN QPF AXIS.

ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR ALONG WITH SOME NORTHWEST WINDS AS HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION MONDAY ONCE THE SUNDAY SYSTEM
MOVES OUT.

ANOTHER SYSTEM LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY AS
ANOTHER PULSE OF 500 MB POSITIVE VORTICITY ENERGY TRANSLATES INTO
THE REGION...ALONG WITH BEING IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A
STRONG 180KT 250 MB JET STREAK AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. THERE
IS STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS PARTICULAR EVENT. CURRENT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS COULD BE BETWEEN 5 AND 6 INCHES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. AT THE MOMENT...THE TIMING OF THE BULK OF THE SNOW WILL BE
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
PRECIPITATION TIMING AND AMOUNTS.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...WATER VAPOR SHOWS SHORTWAVE RIDING EAST
FROM IA. MEANWHILE SURFACE LOW DROPPING SE INTO ERN KS/WRN MO.
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SPREADING SNOW ACROSS REMAINDER OF SE
WI THIS AFTN AND EVE WITH ONSHORE COMPONENT LEADING TO SOME LAKE
EFFECT SNOWS AS WELL. SO EXPECTING SOME IFR CIGS AND PERHAPS SOME
LIFR VSBYS...BUT MOSTLY IFR VSBYS. LAKE EFFECT WRAPS UP THURSDAY
MORNING. SO OVERALL 1-2 OF SYSTEM SNOW FOR MAINLY SRN HALF OF THE
CWA WITH SOME ISOLD 3 INCH AMOUNTS NEAR LAKE MI DUE TO ADDED
INFLUENCE OF LAKE EFFECT.

&&

.MARINE...WIND GUSTS WL GET CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVY FOR A TIME
TONIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS DUE TO LOW PRESSURE PASSING
WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TONIGHT/THURSDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...COLLAR
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...JTS





000
FXUS63 KMKX 252106
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
306 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.TONIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
SNOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH SRN WI OVERCOMING
THE DRY LOW LAYERS THAT WERE EVIDENT ON 12Z GRB SOUNDINGS. WITH THE
SATURATION HAS COME VSBYS DOWN TO 1/2 TO 3/4SM AT TIMES...ESP SW OF
KMSN. RADAR ANIMATION CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE MODEL TRENDS OF
KEEPING BEST ACCUMS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-94 CORRIDOR WITH THE
SYSTEMS BEST ACCUMS MISSING US ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS. SO WILL
HAVE HIGHEST POPS AND ACCUMS IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THE OTHER
CONSIDERATION IS THE LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL. TERMINAL DOPPLER HAS
BEEN SHOWING THE BAND HOLDING OFFSHORE THOUGH RAP SOUNDINGS DO SHOW
ONSHORE COMPONENT WITH DELTA T VALUES OF AROUND 21. EQUILIBRIUM
LEVELS ALSO PUSH 6K FEET. HAVE BUMPED UP SOME AMOUNTS A BIT ESP FROM
SE MKE CNTY THROUGH ERN RAC/ENW COUNTIES. WHILE ICE IS EVIDENT
THERE ARE ENOUGH BREAKS/SLUSHINESS TO ALLOW THE NECESSARY
INSTABILITY TO BE REALIZED FOR THE LAKE EFFECT. SO OVERALL 1-2 OF
SYSTEM SNOW FOR MAINLY SRN HALF OF THE CWA WITH SOME ISOLD 3 INCH
AMOUNTS ADJACENT TO THE LAKE SOUTH OF KMKE TO WI/IL BORDER KENW DUE
TO ADDED INFLUENCE OF LAKE EFFECT.

.THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
STILL SEEING SOME LINGERING ONSHORE COMPONENT DURING THE MORNING HOURS
SO THE GFS/NAM IDEA OF HANGING ONTO SOME LES POTENTIAL SEEMS REASONABLE.
ENOUGH NNW FETCH ESTABLISHED BY MIDDAY AND INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS TO
REMOVE LES FROM GRIDS. 850 THERMAL TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE WITH 925
TEMPS -17C TO -19C. SO MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS/LOW TEENS.

.SHORT TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS MEDIUM.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AND WINDS WILL BACK
FROM A MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION TO THE NORTHWEST AND WEST BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY BE BETWEEN 10 AND 15.
THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS QUIET THROUGH
THE DAY SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

ECMWF IS PROGGING A POTENT 140KT 250 MB JET STREAK TO TRANSLATE
INTO THE REGION EARLY SUNDAY. SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WILL BE IN THE
LEFT EXIT REGION WITH SOME ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. THIS
ALONG WITH A 500 MB SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE LOOKS TO BRING A SYSTEM
INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE GFS LOOKS TO BE MORE
BULLISH WITH THE 500 MB ENERGY THAN THE ECMWF ACCORDING TO THE
LATEST RUNS. 850 MB WARM AIR ADVECTION AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
HELP BRING IN MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR AS WELL. THE BULK OF THE QPF
AMOUNTS LOOK TO STAY FURTHER SOUTH...OUT OF OUR FORECAST
AREA...BUT NOT BY MUCH. ALSO...THE ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN
THE GFS REGARDING THE ONSET OF THE PRECIPITATION BY A FEW HOURS.
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE LOCATION OF THE MAIN QPF AXIS.

ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR ALONG WITH SOME NORTHWEST WINDS AS HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION MONDAY ONCE THE SUNDAY SYSTEM
MOVES OUT.

ANOTHER SYSTEM LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY AS
ANOTHER PULSE OF 500 MB POSITIVE VORTICITY ENERGY TRANSLATES INTO
THE REGION...ALONG WITH BEING IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A
STRONG 180KT 250 MB JET STREAK AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. THERE
IS STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS PARTICULAR EVENT. CURRENT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS COULD BE BETWEEN 5 AND 6 INCHES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. AT THE MOMENT...THE TIMING OF THE BULK OF THE SNOW WILL BE
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
PRECIPITATION TIMING AND AMOUNTS.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...WATER VAPOR SHOWS SHORTWAVE RIDING EAST
FROM IA. MEANWHILE SURFACE LOW DROPPING SE INTO ERN KS/WRN MO.
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SPREADING SNOW ACROSS REMAINDER OF SE
WI THIS AFTN AND EVE WITH ONSHORE COMPONENT LEADING TO SOME LAKE
EFFECT SNOWS AS WELL. SO EXPECTING SOME IFR CIGS AND PERHAPS SOME
LIFR VSBYS...BUT MOSTLY IFR VSBYS. LAKE EFFECT WRAPS UP THURSDAY
MORNING. SO OVERALL 1-2 OF SYSTEM SNOW FOR MAINLY SRN HALF OF THE
CWA WITH SOME ISOLD 3 INCH AMOUNTS NEAR LAKE MI DUE TO ADDED
INFLUENCE OF LAKE EFFECT.

&&

.MARINE...WIND GUSTS WL GET CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVY FOR A TIME
TONIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS DUE TO LOW PRESSURE PASSING
WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TONIGHT/THURSDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...COLLAR
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...JTS




000
FXUS63 KMKX 251612
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1012 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS SNOW SPREADING INTO SW WI
WITH IFR VSBYS WEST OF KMSN. WATER VAPOR SHOWS SHORTWAVE RIDING
EAST FROM MN/IA. MEANWHILE SURFACE LOW IS DROPPING SE FROM ERN NE.
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SPREADING SNOW ACROSS REMAINDER OF SRN
WI THIS AFTN AND EVE WITH ONSHORE COMPONENT LEADING TO SOME LAKE
EFFECT SNOWS AS WELL...HOWEVER ICE COVERAGE LIKELY TO HAVE A SAY
ON EXTENT OF THIS. SO EXPECTING IFR CIGS AND SOME LIFR VSBYS
SPREADING ACRS SRN WI THIS AFTN WITH COMBO OF LAKE EFFECT AND SYS
THIS EVENING BEFORE ANY LINGERING LAKE EFFECT WRAPS UP THURSDAY
MORNING. SO OVERALL 1-2 OF SYSTEM SNOW FOR MAINLY SRN HALF OF THE
CWA WITH SOME ISOLD 3 INCH AMOUNTS NEAR LAKE MI DUE TO ADDED
INFLUENCE OF LAKE EFFECT.

PC

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015/

TODAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION SHOWING UP ON THE VWP NETWORK IN NODAK AT 850H
TAKES A SOUTHEAST TRACK ACROSS ERN SODAK AND WRN IA TO NEAR IA/MO
BORDER BY 00Z. ALL 00Z GUIDANCE HAS BEEN NUDGING THIS SYSTEM FARTHER
NORTHEAST AND 06Z NAM EVEN FARTHER NORTHEAST WITH MID-LEVEL
CIRCULATION. THIS CIRCULATION IS TRAVELING SOUTHEAST ALONG A TIGHT
BAROCLINIC RIBBON. THIS NORTHEAST NUDGE IS BRINGING A MUCH BETTER
THREAT FOR -SN AFFECTING PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST WI FROM LATE MRNG
INTO THE EVE. 285 ISENTROPIC OMEGA SHOWS BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGHER LIFT
IN THE AFTN AFFECTING SOUTHWEST CWA WHICH TIES INTO WHERE BETTER
LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE IS LOCATED. MODERATE LOW LEVEL
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING ALSO BRUSHES SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTN.

THICKNESSES FAVOR SLR AROUND 20 TO 1 WITH QPF BETWEEN 0.05 TO 0.1.
AT THIS TIME THINKING A COUPLE INCHES COULD OCCUR IN THE DARLINGTON
AREA INTO THE EARLY EVENING...TRAILING OFF TO AROUND AN INCH IN THE
MADISON AREA. BUMPED UP POPS TO CATEGORICAL IN THE SOUTHWEST DURING
THE AFTN. WL ADD MENTION TO THE HWO AS -SN WILL BE OCCURING DURING
EVE RUSH.

TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

HUNG ONTO SOME LIKELY POPS IN THE SOUTH DURING THE EARLY EVENING AS
MID-LEVEL DEFORMATION AND LIFT WITH PASSING 850MB LOW SINKS TO THE
SOUTH. ATTENTION QUICKLY TURNS TO THE SOUTHEAST WHERE LOW LEVEL WIND
FLOW MORE LIKELY TO TURN TO THE NORTHEAST DUE TO STRONGER SFC LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING THRU THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION.
COLD AIR SINKING ACROSS LAKE MI WILL RESULT IN THE DELTA-T
INCREASING OVERNIGHT TO AROUND 20C. EXPECT DEEP RH UP TO 10K FEET
FOR A TIME ACROSS THE SOUTHERN LAKESHORE COUNTIES...WITH MUCH OF THE
COLUMN IN FAVORABLE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE DURING THE LATE EVE TO AFT
MIDNIGHT. LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE TO OVER 20KTS RESULTING IN
SEVERAL PERIODS OF FAVORABLE OMEGA ALONG THE LAKESHORE.

HIGH RES MODIS IMAGE FROM TUE AFTN SHOWED ICE COVER REMAINING OVER
MUCH OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS...BUT LAKE WATERS BEYOND 10 MILES
REMAINED ICE FREE. HARD TO SAY WHAT AFFECT THE ICE COVER WILL
HAVE...BUT ENOUGH FORCING AND MOISTURE TO WARRANT INCREASING POPS TO
LIKELYS FROM SRN MKE COUNTY SOUTH TO IL BORDER WITH SCT WORDING
FARTHER NORTH. LAKE EFFECT SNOW FLOW CHART RESULTS IN MODERATE SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OVERNIGHT BUT WITH ICE COVER AND GRADUALLY BACKING
WINDS...WL LIMIT SNOWFALL TO 1 TO 3 INCHES FOR NOW.

SHORT TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS MEDIUM.

MODELS LINGER LIGHT LAKE EFFECT QPF ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES THURSDAY MORNING...AS 1000/850 MB CONVERGENCE SLOWLY
SHIFTS TO THE EAST. VERY FAVORABLE DELTA T VALUES REMAIN...THOUGH
AIR COLUMN ABOVE INVERSION DRIES OUT. THUS...CONTINUED TO MENTION
MODEST POPS IN THIS AREA THURSDAY MORNING.

OTHERWISE...COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES THURSDAY...AS ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY
SHIFT SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS BY 00Z SATURDAY...THEN TO
THE EAST BY 12Z SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF WELL
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

DRY AIRMASS/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND STRONG NEAR SURFACE INVERSION
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD LEAD TO LOWS WELL INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO. LOWS MAY GET SEVERAL DEGREES COLDER IF
WINDS FULLY DECOUPLE...WHICH IS POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT. LATER SHIFTS
WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO...AND FRIDAY INTO THE MID TEENS...ARE
EXPECTED.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

GFS/ECMWF MODELS SHOW 500 MB FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL BY 12Z
SATURDAY...AND GENERALLY LINGERING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THEY
CONTINUE TO DIFFER WITH TRENDS FOR THE SYSTEM FOR SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY. ECMWF IS ABOUT 6 TO 9 HOURS QUICKER WITH BRINGING
INITIAL WARM AIR ADVECTION QPF INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THEY
BOTH BRING THE COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA LATER SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY EVENING.

BEST UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION REMAINS TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH MORE MODEST UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION IN
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. KEPT MAINLY CHANCE POPS GOING FOR THIS
PERIOD...THOUGH MAY NEED ADJUSTMENT IN LATER FORECASTS IF QPF
CONTINUES TO LINGER ACROSS THE AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY...BEFORE
RELATIVELY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SLIDES NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
GFS IS ABOUT 12 HOURS QUICKER THAN THE ECMWF WITH THE LOW TRACK
TIMING...THOUGH BOTH DO BRING A FAIR AMOUNT OF QPF AND UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED
CLOSELY IN LATER FORECASTS...AS THIS TRACK COULD BRING A DECENT
AMOUNT OF SNOW AND/OR MIXED PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. STAY
TUNED...

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

BETTER THREAT FOR -SN TO SPREAD INTO KMSN THIS AFTN WITH CIGS AND
VSBYS BRIEFLY LOWERING TO MVFR. LAKE EFFECT -SHSN LIKELY TO AFFECT
KMKE AND KENW TNGT WITH POTENTIAL FOR CIGS AND VSBYS DROPPING AS LOW
AS IFR.

MARINE...

HIGH RESOLUTION MODIS IMAGE FROM TUE AFTN HAD PARTIAL CLEARING OVER
THE NEARSHORE WATERS WHICH REVEALED ICE COVER PERSISTING IN THOSE
VSBL AREAS. WITH COLD AIR RETURNING AND SETTLING IN FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK...EXPECT WIDESPREAD ICE COVER TO CONTINUE. WIND GUSTS WL
GET CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVY FOR A TIME TONIGHT AS PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS DUE TO LOW PRESSURE PASSING WELL SOUTH OF THE
AREA.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WOOD





000
FXUS63 KMKX 251612
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1012 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS SNOW SPREADING INTO SW WI
WITH IFR VSBYS WEST OF KMSN. WATER VAPOR SHOWS SHORTWAVE RIDING
EAST FROM MN/IA. MEANWHILE SURFACE LOW IS DROPPING SE FROM ERN NE.
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SPREADING SNOW ACROSS REMAINDER OF SRN
WI THIS AFTN AND EVE WITH ONSHORE COMPONENT LEADING TO SOME LAKE
EFFECT SNOWS AS WELL...HOWEVER ICE COVERAGE LIKELY TO HAVE A SAY
ON EXTENT OF THIS. SO EXPECTING IFR CIGS AND SOME LIFR VSBYS
SPREADING ACRS SRN WI THIS AFTN WITH COMBO OF LAKE EFFECT AND SYS
THIS EVENING BEFORE ANY LINGERING LAKE EFFECT WRAPS UP THURSDAY
MORNING. SO OVERALL 1-2 OF SYSTEM SNOW FOR MAINLY SRN HALF OF THE
CWA WITH SOME ISOLD 3 INCH AMOUNTS NEAR LAKE MI DUE TO ADDED
INFLUENCE OF LAKE EFFECT.

PC

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015/

TODAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION SHOWING UP ON THE VWP NETWORK IN NODAK AT 850H
TAKES A SOUTHEAST TRACK ACROSS ERN SODAK AND WRN IA TO NEAR IA/MO
BORDER BY 00Z. ALL 00Z GUIDANCE HAS BEEN NUDGING THIS SYSTEM FARTHER
NORTHEAST AND 06Z NAM EVEN FARTHER NORTHEAST WITH MID-LEVEL
CIRCULATION. THIS CIRCULATION IS TRAVELING SOUTHEAST ALONG A TIGHT
BAROCLINIC RIBBON. THIS NORTHEAST NUDGE IS BRINGING A MUCH BETTER
THREAT FOR -SN AFFECTING PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST WI FROM LATE MRNG
INTO THE EVE. 285 ISENTROPIC OMEGA SHOWS BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGHER LIFT
IN THE AFTN AFFECTING SOUTHWEST CWA WHICH TIES INTO WHERE BETTER
LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE IS LOCATED. MODERATE LOW LEVEL
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING ALSO BRUSHES SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTN.

THICKNESSES FAVOR SLR AROUND 20 TO 1 WITH QPF BETWEEN 0.05 TO 0.1.
AT THIS TIME THINKING A COUPLE INCHES COULD OCCUR IN THE DARLINGTON
AREA INTO THE EARLY EVENING...TRAILING OFF TO AROUND AN INCH IN THE
MADISON AREA. BUMPED UP POPS TO CATEGORICAL IN THE SOUTHWEST DURING
THE AFTN. WL ADD MENTION TO THE HWO AS -SN WILL BE OCCURING DURING
EVE RUSH.

TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

HUNG ONTO SOME LIKELY POPS IN THE SOUTH DURING THE EARLY EVENING AS
MID-LEVEL DEFORMATION AND LIFT WITH PASSING 850MB LOW SINKS TO THE
SOUTH. ATTENTION QUICKLY TURNS TO THE SOUTHEAST WHERE LOW LEVEL WIND
FLOW MORE LIKELY TO TURN TO THE NORTHEAST DUE TO STRONGER SFC LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING THRU THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION.
COLD AIR SINKING ACROSS LAKE MI WILL RESULT IN THE DELTA-T
INCREASING OVERNIGHT TO AROUND 20C. EXPECT DEEP RH UP TO 10K FEET
FOR A TIME ACROSS THE SOUTHERN LAKESHORE COUNTIES...WITH MUCH OF THE
COLUMN IN FAVORABLE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE DURING THE LATE EVE TO AFT
MIDNIGHT. LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE TO OVER 20KTS RESULTING IN
SEVERAL PERIODS OF FAVORABLE OMEGA ALONG THE LAKESHORE.

HIGH RES MODIS IMAGE FROM TUE AFTN SHOWED ICE COVER REMAINING OVER
MUCH OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS...BUT LAKE WATERS BEYOND 10 MILES
REMAINED ICE FREE. HARD TO SAY WHAT AFFECT THE ICE COVER WILL
HAVE...BUT ENOUGH FORCING AND MOISTURE TO WARRANT INCREASING POPS TO
LIKELYS FROM SRN MKE COUNTY SOUTH TO IL BORDER WITH SCT WORDING
FARTHER NORTH. LAKE EFFECT SNOW FLOW CHART RESULTS IN MODERATE SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OVERNIGHT BUT WITH ICE COVER AND GRADUALLY BACKING
WINDS...WL LIMIT SNOWFALL TO 1 TO 3 INCHES FOR NOW.

SHORT TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS MEDIUM.

MODELS LINGER LIGHT LAKE EFFECT QPF ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES THURSDAY MORNING...AS 1000/850 MB CONVERGENCE SLOWLY
SHIFTS TO THE EAST. VERY FAVORABLE DELTA T VALUES REMAIN...THOUGH
AIR COLUMN ABOVE INVERSION DRIES OUT. THUS...CONTINUED TO MENTION
MODEST POPS IN THIS AREA THURSDAY MORNING.

OTHERWISE...COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES THURSDAY...AS ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY
SHIFT SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS BY 00Z SATURDAY...THEN TO
THE EAST BY 12Z SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF WELL
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

DRY AIRMASS/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND STRONG NEAR SURFACE INVERSION
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD LEAD TO LOWS WELL INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO. LOWS MAY GET SEVERAL DEGREES COLDER IF
WINDS FULLY DECOUPLE...WHICH IS POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT. LATER SHIFTS
WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO...AND FRIDAY INTO THE MID TEENS...ARE
EXPECTED.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

GFS/ECMWF MODELS SHOW 500 MB FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL BY 12Z
SATURDAY...AND GENERALLY LINGERING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THEY
CONTINUE TO DIFFER WITH TRENDS FOR THE SYSTEM FOR SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY. ECMWF IS ABOUT 6 TO 9 HOURS QUICKER WITH BRINGING
INITIAL WARM AIR ADVECTION QPF INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THEY
BOTH BRING THE COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA LATER SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY EVENING.

BEST UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION REMAINS TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH MORE MODEST UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION IN
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. KEPT MAINLY CHANCE POPS GOING FOR THIS
PERIOD...THOUGH MAY NEED ADJUSTMENT IN LATER FORECASTS IF QPF
CONTINUES TO LINGER ACROSS THE AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY...BEFORE
RELATIVELY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SLIDES NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
GFS IS ABOUT 12 HOURS QUICKER THAN THE ECMWF WITH THE LOW TRACK
TIMING...THOUGH BOTH DO BRING A FAIR AMOUNT OF QPF AND UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED
CLOSELY IN LATER FORECASTS...AS THIS TRACK COULD BRING A DECENT
AMOUNT OF SNOW AND/OR MIXED PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. STAY
TUNED...

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

BETTER THREAT FOR -SN TO SPREAD INTO KMSN THIS AFTN WITH CIGS AND
VSBYS BRIEFLY LOWERING TO MVFR. LAKE EFFECT -SHSN LIKELY TO AFFECT
KMKE AND KENW TNGT WITH POTENTIAL FOR CIGS AND VSBYS DROPPING AS LOW
AS IFR.

MARINE...

HIGH RESOLUTION MODIS IMAGE FROM TUE AFTN HAD PARTIAL CLEARING OVER
THE NEARSHORE WATERS WHICH REVEALED ICE COVER PERSISTING IN THOSE
VSBL AREAS. WITH COLD AIR RETURNING AND SETTLING IN FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK...EXPECT WIDESPREAD ICE COVER TO CONTINUE. WIND GUSTS WL
GET CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVY FOR A TIME TONIGHT AS PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS DUE TO LOW PRESSURE PASSING WELL SOUTH OF THE
AREA.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WOOD




000
FXUS63 KMKX 251612
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1012 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS SNOW SPREADING INTO SW WI
WITH IFR VSBYS WEST OF KMSN. WATER VAPOR SHOWS SHORTWAVE RIDING
EAST FROM MN/IA. MEANWHILE SURFACE LOW IS DROPPING SE FROM ERN NE.
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SPREADING SNOW ACROSS REMAINDER OF SRN
WI THIS AFTN AND EVE WITH ONSHORE COMPONENT LEADING TO SOME LAKE
EFFECT SNOWS AS WELL...HOWEVER ICE COVERAGE LIKELY TO HAVE A SAY
ON EXTENT OF THIS. SO EXPECTING IFR CIGS AND SOME LIFR VSBYS
SPREADING ACRS SRN WI THIS AFTN WITH COMBO OF LAKE EFFECT AND SYS
THIS EVENING BEFORE ANY LINGERING LAKE EFFECT WRAPS UP THURSDAY
MORNING. SO OVERALL 1-2 OF SYSTEM SNOW FOR MAINLY SRN HALF OF THE
CWA WITH SOME ISOLD 3 INCH AMOUNTS NEAR LAKE MI DUE TO ADDED
INFLUENCE OF LAKE EFFECT.

PC

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015/

TODAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION SHOWING UP ON THE VWP NETWORK IN NODAK AT 850H
TAKES A SOUTHEAST TRACK ACROSS ERN SODAK AND WRN IA TO NEAR IA/MO
BORDER BY 00Z. ALL 00Z GUIDANCE HAS BEEN NUDGING THIS SYSTEM FARTHER
NORTHEAST AND 06Z NAM EVEN FARTHER NORTHEAST WITH MID-LEVEL
CIRCULATION. THIS CIRCULATION IS TRAVELING SOUTHEAST ALONG A TIGHT
BAROCLINIC RIBBON. THIS NORTHEAST NUDGE IS BRINGING A MUCH BETTER
THREAT FOR -SN AFFECTING PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST WI FROM LATE MRNG
INTO THE EVE. 285 ISENTROPIC OMEGA SHOWS BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGHER LIFT
IN THE AFTN AFFECTING SOUTHWEST CWA WHICH TIES INTO WHERE BETTER
LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE IS LOCATED. MODERATE LOW LEVEL
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING ALSO BRUSHES SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTN.

THICKNESSES FAVOR SLR AROUND 20 TO 1 WITH QPF BETWEEN 0.05 TO 0.1.
AT THIS TIME THINKING A COUPLE INCHES COULD OCCUR IN THE DARLINGTON
AREA INTO THE EARLY EVENING...TRAILING OFF TO AROUND AN INCH IN THE
MADISON AREA. BUMPED UP POPS TO CATEGORICAL IN THE SOUTHWEST DURING
THE AFTN. WL ADD MENTION TO THE HWO AS -SN WILL BE OCCURING DURING
EVE RUSH.

TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

HUNG ONTO SOME LIKELY POPS IN THE SOUTH DURING THE EARLY EVENING AS
MID-LEVEL DEFORMATION AND LIFT WITH PASSING 850MB LOW SINKS TO THE
SOUTH. ATTENTION QUICKLY TURNS TO THE SOUTHEAST WHERE LOW LEVEL WIND
FLOW MORE LIKELY TO TURN TO THE NORTHEAST DUE TO STRONGER SFC LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING THRU THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION.
COLD AIR SINKING ACROSS LAKE MI WILL RESULT IN THE DELTA-T
INCREASING OVERNIGHT TO AROUND 20C. EXPECT DEEP RH UP TO 10K FEET
FOR A TIME ACROSS THE SOUTHERN LAKESHORE COUNTIES...WITH MUCH OF THE
COLUMN IN FAVORABLE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE DURING THE LATE EVE TO AFT
MIDNIGHT. LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE TO OVER 20KTS RESULTING IN
SEVERAL PERIODS OF FAVORABLE OMEGA ALONG THE LAKESHORE.

HIGH RES MODIS IMAGE FROM TUE AFTN SHOWED ICE COVER REMAINING OVER
MUCH OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS...BUT LAKE WATERS BEYOND 10 MILES
REMAINED ICE FREE. HARD TO SAY WHAT AFFECT THE ICE COVER WILL
HAVE...BUT ENOUGH FORCING AND MOISTURE TO WARRANT INCREASING POPS TO
LIKELYS FROM SRN MKE COUNTY SOUTH TO IL BORDER WITH SCT WORDING
FARTHER NORTH. LAKE EFFECT SNOW FLOW CHART RESULTS IN MODERATE SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OVERNIGHT BUT WITH ICE COVER AND GRADUALLY BACKING
WINDS...WL LIMIT SNOWFALL TO 1 TO 3 INCHES FOR NOW.

SHORT TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS MEDIUM.

MODELS LINGER LIGHT LAKE EFFECT QPF ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES THURSDAY MORNING...AS 1000/850 MB CONVERGENCE SLOWLY
SHIFTS TO THE EAST. VERY FAVORABLE DELTA T VALUES REMAIN...THOUGH
AIR COLUMN ABOVE INVERSION DRIES OUT. THUS...CONTINUED TO MENTION
MODEST POPS IN THIS AREA THURSDAY MORNING.

OTHERWISE...COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES THURSDAY...AS ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY
SHIFT SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS BY 00Z SATURDAY...THEN TO
THE EAST BY 12Z SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF WELL
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

DRY AIRMASS/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND STRONG NEAR SURFACE INVERSION
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD LEAD TO LOWS WELL INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO. LOWS MAY GET SEVERAL DEGREES COLDER IF
WINDS FULLY DECOUPLE...WHICH IS POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT. LATER SHIFTS
WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO...AND FRIDAY INTO THE MID TEENS...ARE
EXPECTED.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

GFS/ECMWF MODELS SHOW 500 MB FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL BY 12Z
SATURDAY...AND GENERALLY LINGERING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THEY
CONTINUE TO DIFFER WITH TRENDS FOR THE SYSTEM FOR SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY. ECMWF IS ABOUT 6 TO 9 HOURS QUICKER WITH BRINGING
INITIAL WARM AIR ADVECTION QPF INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THEY
BOTH BRING THE COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA LATER SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY EVENING.

BEST UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION REMAINS TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH MORE MODEST UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION IN
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. KEPT MAINLY CHANCE POPS GOING FOR THIS
PERIOD...THOUGH MAY NEED ADJUSTMENT IN LATER FORECASTS IF QPF
CONTINUES TO LINGER ACROSS THE AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY...BEFORE
RELATIVELY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SLIDES NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
GFS IS ABOUT 12 HOURS QUICKER THAN THE ECMWF WITH THE LOW TRACK
TIMING...THOUGH BOTH DO BRING A FAIR AMOUNT OF QPF AND UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED
CLOSELY IN LATER FORECASTS...AS THIS TRACK COULD BRING A DECENT
AMOUNT OF SNOW AND/OR MIXED PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. STAY
TUNED...

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

BETTER THREAT FOR -SN TO SPREAD INTO KMSN THIS AFTN WITH CIGS AND
VSBYS BRIEFLY LOWERING TO MVFR. LAKE EFFECT -SHSN LIKELY TO AFFECT
KMKE AND KENW TNGT WITH POTENTIAL FOR CIGS AND VSBYS DROPPING AS LOW
AS IFR.

MARINE...

HIGH RESOLUTION MODIS IMAGE FROM TUE AFTN HAD PARTIAL CLEARING OVER
THE NEARSHORE WATERS WHICH REVEALED ICE COVER PERSISTING IN THOSE
VSBL AREAS. WITH COLD AIR RETURNING AND SETTLING IN FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK...EXPECT WIDESPREAD ICE COVER TO CONTINUE. WIND GUSTS WL
GET CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVY FOR A TIME TONIGHT AS PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS DUE TO LOW PRESSURE PASSING WELL SOUTH OF THE
AREA.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WOOD




000
FXUS63 KMKX 250936 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
336 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

ADDED TODAY/TONIGHT/AVIATION/MARINE SECTIONS

.TODAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION SHOWING UP ON THE VWP NETWORK IN NODAK AT 850H
TAKES A SOUTHEAST TRACK ACROSS ERN SODAK AND WRN IA TO NEAR IA/MO
BORDER BY 00Z. ALL 00Z GUIDANCE HAS BEEN NUDGING THIS SYSTEM FARTHER
NORTHEAST AND 06Z NAM EVEN FARTHER NORTHEAST WITH MID-LEVEL
CIRCULATION. THIS CIRCULATION IS TRAVELING SOUTHEAST ALONG A TIGHT
BAROCLINIC RIBBON. THIS NORTHEAST NUDGE IS BRINGING A MUCH BETTER
THREAT FOR -SN AFFECTING PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST WI FROM LATE MRNG
INTO THE EVE. 285 ISENTROPIC OMEGA SHOWS BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGHER LIFT
IN THE AFTN AFFECTING SOUTHWEST CWA WHICH TIES INTO WHERE BETTER
LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE IS LOCATED. MODERATE LOW LEVEL
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING ALSO BRUSHES SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTN.

THICKNESSES FAVOR SLR AROUND 20 TO 1 WITH QPF BETWEEN 0.05 TO 0.1.
AT THIS TIME THINKING A COUPLE INCHES COULD OCCUR IN THE DARLINGTON
AREA INTO THE EARLY EVENING...TRAILING OFF TO AROUND AN INCH IN THE
MADISON AREA. BUMPED UP POPS TO CATEGORICAL IN THE SOUTHWEST DURING
THE AFTN. WL ADD MENTION TO THE HWO AS -SN WILL BE OCCURING DURING
EVE RUSH.

.TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

HUNG ONTO SOME LIKELY POPS IN THE SOUTH DURING THE EARLY EVENING AS
MID-LEVEL DEFORMATION AND LIFT WITH PASSING 850MB LOW SINKS TO THE
SOUTH. ATTENTION QUICKLY TURNS TO THE SOUTHEAST WHERE LOW LEVEL WIND
FLOW MORE LIKELY TO TURN TO THE NORTHEAST DUE TO STRONGER SFC LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING THRU THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION.
COLD AIR SINKING ACROSS LAKE MI WILL RESULT IN THE DELTA-T
INCREASING OVERNIGHT TO AROUND 20C. EXPECT DEEP RH UP TO 10K FEET
FOR A TIME ACROSS THE SOUTHERN LAKESHORE COUNTIES...WITH MUCH OF THE
COLUMN IN FAVORABLE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE DURING THE LATE EVE TO AFT
MIDNIGHT. LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE TO OVER 20KTS RESULTING IN
SEVERAL PERIODS OF FAVORABLE OMEGA ALONG THE LAKESHORE.

HIGH RES MODIS IMAGE FROM TUE AFTN SHOWED ICE COVER REMAINING OVER
MUCH OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS...BUT LAKE WATERS BEYOND 10 MILES
REMAINED ICE FREE. HARD TO SAY WHAT AFFECT THE ICE COVER WILL
HAVE...BUT ENOUGH FORCING AND MOISTURE TO WARRANT INCREASING POPS TO
LIKELYS FROM SRN MKE COUNTY SOUTH TO IL BORDER WITH SCT WORDING
FARTHER NORTH. LAKE EFFECT SNOW FLOW CHART RESULTS IN MODERATE SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OVERNIGHT BUT WITH ICE COVER AND GRADUALLY BACKING
WINDS...WL LIMIT SNOWFALL TO 1 TO 3 INCHES FOR NOW.

.SHORT TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS MEDIUM.

MODELS LINGER LIGHT LAKE EFFECT QPF ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES THURSDAY MORNING...AS 1000/850 MB CONVERGENCE SLOWLY
SHIFTS TO THE EAST. VERY FAVORABLE DELTA T VALUES REMAIN...THOUGH
AIR COLUMN ABOVE INVERSION DRIES OUT. THUS...CONTINUED TO MENTION
MODEST POPS IN THIS AREA THURSDAY MORNING.

OTHERWISE...COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES THURSDAY...AS ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY
SHIFT SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS BY 00Z SATURDAY...THEN TO
THE EAST BY 12Z SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF WELL
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

DRY AIRMASS/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND STRONG NEAR SURFACE INVERSION
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD LEAD TO LOWS WELL INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO. LOWS MAY GET SEVERAL DEGREES COLDER IF
WINDS FULLY DECOUPLE...WHICH IS POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT. LATER SHIFTS
WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO...AND FRIDAY INTO THE MID TEENS...ARE
EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

GFS/ECMWF MODELS SHOW 500 MB FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL BY 12Z
SATURDAY...AND GENERALLY LINGERING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THEY
CONTINUE TO DIFFER WITH TRENDS FOR THE SYSTEM FOR SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY. ECMWF IS ABOUT 6 TO 9 HOURS QUICKER WITH BRINGING
INITIAL WARM AIR ADVECTION QPF INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THEY
BOTH BRING THE COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA LATER SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY EVENING.

BEST UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION REMAINS TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH MORE MODEST UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION IN
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. KEPT MAINLY CHANCE POPS GOING FOR THIS
PERIOD...THOUGH MAY NEED ADJUSTMENT IN LATER FORECASTS IF QPF
CONTINUES TO LINGER ACROSS THE AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY...BEFORE
RELATIVELY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SLIDES NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
GFS IS ABOUT 12 HOURS QUICKER THAN THE ECMWF WITH THE LOW TRACK
TIMING...THOUGH BOTH DO BRING A FAIR AMOUNT OF QPF AND UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED
CLOSELY IN LATER FORECASTS...AS THIS TRACK COULD BRING A DECENT
AMOUNT OF SNOW AND/OR MIXED PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. STAY
TUNED...

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

BETTER THREAT FOR -SN TO SPREAD INTO KMSN THIS AFTN WITH CIGS AND
VSBYS BRIEFLY LOWERING TO MVFR. LAKE EFFECT -SHSN LIKELY TO AFFECT
KMKE AND KENW TNGT WITH POTENTIAL FOR CIGS AND VSBYS DROPPING AS LOW
AS IFR.

&&

.MARINE...

HIGH RESOLUTION MODIS IMAGE FROM TUE AFTN HAD PARTIAL CLEARING OVER
THE NEARSHORE WATERS WHICH REVEALED ICE COVER PERSISTING IN THOSE
VSBL AREAS. WITH COLD AIR RETURNING AND SETTLING IN FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK...EXPECT WIDESPREAD ICE COVER TO CONTINUE. WIND GUSTS WL
GET CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVY FOR A TIME TONIGHT AS PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS DUE TO LOW PRESSURE PASSING WELL SOUTH OF THE
AREA.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WOOD





000
FXUS63 KMKX 250936 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
336 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

ADDED TODAY/TONIGHT/AVIATION/MARINE SECTIONS

.TODAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION SHOWING UP ON THE VWP NETWORK IN NODAK AT 850H
TAKES A SOUTHEAST TRACK ACROSS ERN SODAK AND WRN IA TO NEAR IA/MO
BORDER BY 00Z. ALL 00Z GUIDANCE HAS BEEN NUDGING THIS SYSTEM FARTHER
NORTHEAST AND 06Z NAM EVEN FARTHER NORTHEAST WITH MID-LEVEL
CIRCULATION. THIS CIRCULATION IS TRAVELING SOUTHEAST ALONG A TIGHT
BAROCLINIC RIBBON. THIS NORTHEAST NUDGE IS BRINGING A MUCH BETTER
THREAT FOR -SN AFFECTING PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST WI FROM LATE MRNG
INTO THE EVE. 285 ISENTROPIC OMEGA SHOWS BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGHER LIFT
IN THE AFTN AFFECTING SOUTHWEST CWA WHICH TIES INTO WHERE BETTER
LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE IS LOCATED. MODERATE LOW LEVEL
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING ALSO BRUSHES SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTN.

THICKNESSES FAVOR SLR AROUND 20 TO 1 WITH QPF BETWEEN 0.05 TO 0.1.
AT THIS TIME THINKING A COUPLE INCHES COULD OCCUR IN THE DARLINGTON
AREA INTO THE EARLY EVENING...TRAILING OFF TO AROUND AN INCH IN THE
MADISON AREA. BUMPED UP POPS TO CATEGORICAL IN THE SOUTHWEST DURING
THE AFTN. WL ADD MENTION TO THE HWO AS -SN WILL BE OCCURING DURING
EVE RUSH.

.TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

HUNG ONTO SOME LIKELY POPS IN THE SOUTH DURING THE EARLY EVENING AS
MID-LEVEL DEFORMATION AND LIFT WITH PASSING 850MB LOW SINKS TO THE
SOUTH. ATTENTION QUICKLY TURNS TO THE SOUTHEAST WHERE LOW LEVEL WIND
FLOW MORE LIKELY TO TURN TO THE NORTHEAST DUE TO STRONGER SFC LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING THRU THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION.
COLD AIR SINKING ACROSS LAKE MI WILL RESULT IN THE DELTA-T
INCREASING OVERNIGHT TO AROUND 20C. EXPECT DEEP RH UP TO 10K FEET
FOR A TIME ACROSS THE SOUTHERN LAKESHORE COUNTIES...WITH MUCH OF THE
COLUMN IN FAVORABLE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE DURING THE LATE EVE TO AFT
MIDNIGHT. LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE TO OVER 20KTS RESULTING IN
SEVERAL PERIODS OF FAVORABLE OMEGA ALONG THE LAKESHORE.

HIGH RES MODIS IMAGE FROM TUE AFTN SHOWED ICE COVER REMAINING OVER
MUCH OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS...BUT LAKE WATERS BEYOND 10 MILES
REMAINED ICE FREE. HARD TO SAY WHAT AFFECT THE ICE COVER WILL
HAVE...BUT ENOUGH FORCING AND MOISTURE TO WARRANT INCREASING POPS TO
LIKELYS FROM SRN MKE COUNTY SOUTH TO IL BORDER WITH SCT WORDING
FARTHER NORTH. LAKE EFFECT SNOW FLOW CHART RESULTS IN MODERATE SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OVERNIGHT BUT WITH ICE COVER AND GRADUALLY BACKING
WINDS...WL LIMIT SNOWFALL TO 1 TO 3 INCHES FOR NOW.

.SHORT TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS MEDIUM.

MODELS LINGER LIGHT LAKE EFFECT QPF ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES THURSDAY MORNING...AS 1000/850 MB CONVERGENCE SLOWLY
SHIFTS TO THE EAST. VERY FAVORABLE DELTA T VALUES REMAIN...THOUGH
AIR COLUMN ABOVE INVERSION DRIES OUT. THUS...CONTINUED TO MENTION
MODEST POPS IN THIS AREA THURSDAY MORNING.

OTHERWISE...COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES THURSDAY...AS ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY
SHIFT SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS BY 00Z SATURDAY...THEN TO
THE EAST BY 12Z SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF WELL
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

DRY AIRMASS/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND STRONG NEAR SURFACE INVERSION
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD LEAD TO LOWS WELL INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO. LOWS MAY GET SEVERAL DEGREES COLDER IF
WINDS FULLY DECOUPLE...WHICH IS POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT. LATER SHIFTS
WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO...AND FRIDAY INTO THE MID TEENS...ARE
EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

GFS/ECMWF MODELS SHOW 500 MB FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL BY 12Z
SATURDAY...AND GENERALLY LINGERING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THEY
CONTINUE TO DIFFER WITH TRENDS FOR THE SYSTEM FOR SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY. ECMWF IS ABOUT 6 TO 9 HOURS QUICKER WITH BRINGING
INITIAL WARM AIR ADVECTION QPF INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THEY
BOTH BRING THE COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA LATER SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY EVENING.

BEST UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION REMAINS TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH MORE MODEST UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION IN
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. KEPT MAINLY CHANCE POPS GOING FOR THIS
PERIOD...THOUGH MAY NEED ADJUSTMENT IN LATER FORECASTS IF QPF
CONTINUES TO LINGER ACROSS THE AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY...BEFORE
RELATIVELY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SLIDES NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
GFS IS ABOUT 12 HOURS QUICKER THAN THE ECMWF WITH THE LOW TRACK
TIMING...THOUGH BOTH DO BRING A FAIR AMOUNT OF QPF AND UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED
CLOSELY IN LATER FORECASTS...AS THIS TRACK COULD BRING A DECENT
AMOUNT OF SNOW AND/OR MIXED PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. STAY
TUNED...

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

BETTER THREAT FOR -SN TO SPREAD INTO KMSN THIS AFTN WITH CIGS AND
VSBYS BRIEFLY LOWERING TO MVFR. LAKE EFFECT -SHSN LIKELY TO AFFECT
KMKE AND KENW TNGT WITH POTENTIAL FOR CIGS AND VSBYS DROPPING AS LOW
AS IFR.

&&

.MARINE...

HIGH RESOLUTION MODIS IMAGE FROM TUE AFTN HAD PARTIAL CLEARING OVER
THE NEARSHORE WATERS WHICH REVEALED ICE COVER PERSISTING IN THOSE
VSBL AREAS. WITH COLD AIR RETURNING AND SETTLING IN FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK...EXPECT WIDESPREAD ICE COVER TO CONTINUE. WIND GUSTS WL
GET CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVY FOR A TIME TONIGHT AS PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS DUE TO LOW PRESSURE PASSING WELL SOUTH OF THE
AREA.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WOOD




000
FXUS63 KMKX 250930
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
330 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...COMING SOON...

.SHORT TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS MEDIUM.

MODELS LINGER LIGHT LAKE EFFECT QPF ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES THURSDAY MORNING...AS 1000/850 MB CONVERGENCE SLOWLY
SHIFTS TO THE EAST. VERY FAVORABLE DELTA T VALUES REMAIN...THOUGH
AIR COLUMN ABOVE INVERSION DRIES OUT. THUS...CONTINUED TO MENTION
MODEST POPS IN THIS AREA THURSDAY MORNING.

OTHERWISE...COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES THURSDAY...AS ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY
SHIFT SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS BY 00Z SATURDAY...THEN TO
THE EAST BY 12Z SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF WELL
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

DRY AIRMASS/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND STRONG NEAR SURFACE INVERSION
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD LEAD TO LOWS WELL INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO. LOWS MAY GET SEVERAL DEGREES COLDER IF
WINDS FULLY DECOUPLE...WHICH IS POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT. LATER SHIFTS
WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO...AND FRIDAY INTO THE MID TEENS...ARE
EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

GFS/ECMWF MODELS SHOW 500 MB FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL BY 12Z
SATURDAY...AND GENERALLY LINGERING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THEY
CONTINUE TO DIFFER WITH TRENDS FOR THE SYSTEM FOR SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY. ECMWF IS ABOUT 6 TO 9 HOURS QUICKER WITH BRINGING
INITIAL WARM AIR ADVECTION QPF INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THEY
BOTH BRING THE COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA LATER SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY EVENING.

BEST UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION REMAINS TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH MORE MODEST UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION IN
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. KEPT MAINLY CHANCE POPS GOING FOR THIS
PERIOD...THOUGH MAY NEED ADJUSTMENT IN LATER FORECASTS IF QPF
CONTINUES TO LINGER ACROSS THE AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY...BEFORE
RELATIVELY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SLIDES NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
GFS IS ABOUT 12 HOURS QUICKER THAN THE ECMWF WITH THE LOW TRACK
TIMING...THOUGH BOTH DO BRING A FAIR AMOUNT OF QPF AND UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED
CLOSELY IN LATER FORECASTS...AS THIS TRACK COULD BRING A DECENT
AMOUNT OF SNOW AND/OR MIXED PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. STAY
TUNED...

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...COMING SOON...

&&

.MARINE...COMING SOON...

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WOOD





000
FXUS63 KMKX 250930
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
330 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...COMING SOON...

.SHORT TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS MEDIUM.

MODELS LINGER LIGHT LAKE EFFECT QPF ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES THURSDAY MORNING...AS 1000/850 MB CONVERGENCE SLOWLY
SHIFTS TO THE EAST. VERY FAVORABLE DELTA T VALUES REMAIN...THOUGH
AIR COLUMN ABOVE INVERSION DRIES OUT. THUS...CONTINUED TO MENTION
MODEST POPS IN THIS AREA THURSDAY MORNING.

OTHERWISE...COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES THURSDAY...AS ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY
SHIFT SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS BY 00Z SATURDAY...THEN TO
THE EAST BY 12Z SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF WELL
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

DRY AIRMASS/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND STRONG NEAR SURFACE INVERSION
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD LEAD TO LOWS WELL INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO. LOWS MAY GET SEVERAL DEGREES COLDER IF
WINDS FULLY DECOUPLE...WHICH IS POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT. LATER SHIFTS
WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO...AND FRIDAY INTO THE MID TEENS...ARE
EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

GFS/ECMWF MODELS SHOW 500 MB FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL BY 12Z
SATURDAY...AND GENERALLY LINGERING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THEY
CONTINUE TO DIFFER WITH TRENDS FOR THE SYSTEM FOR SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY. ECMWF IS ABOUT 6 TO 9 HOURS QUICKER WITH BRINGING
INITIAL WARM AIR ADVECTION QPF INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THEY
BOTH BRING THE COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA LATER SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY EVENING.

BEST UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION REMAINS TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH MORE MODEST UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION IN
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. KEPT MAINLY CHANCE POPS GOING FOR THIS
PERIOD...THOUGH MAY NEED ADJUSTMENT IN LATER FORECASTS IF QPF
CONTINUES TO LINGER ACROSS THE AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY...BEFORE
RELATIVELY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SLIDES NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
GFS IS ABOUT 12 HOURS QUICKER THAN THE ECMWF WITH THE LOW TRACK
TIMING...THOUGH BOTH DO BRING A FAIR AMOUNT OF QPF AND UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED
CLOSELY IN LATER FORECASTS...AS THIS TRACK COULD BRING A DECENT
AMOUNT OF SNOW AND/OR MIXED PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. STAY
TUNED...

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...COMING SOON...

&&

.MARINE...COMING SOON...

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WOOD




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