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000
FXUS63 KMKX 220814
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
314 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST TODAY WHILE A WEAK TROF OF LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.  LOOK FOR ABUNDANT SUNSHINE TODAY
UNDER A VERY DRY AIRMASS.  THERE IS A VERY SMALL PATCH OF LOW
STRATUS THAT HAS SURVIVED SINCE YESTERDAY AND IT/S ROLLING WEST
ACROSS WALWORTH AND INTO ROCK COUNTY. I DON/T EXPECT IT TO SURVIVE
MUCH PAST SUNRISE GIVEN THE DRY COLUMN.  IT SHOULD FEEL A GOOD DEAL
WARMER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY WITH SUNSHINE...LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPS
ABOUT 5 DEGREES WARMER.

AFTER A CLEAR EVENING...LOOK FOR CLOUDS TO INCREASE RAPIDLY FROM THE
WEST AS THE TROF APPROACHES. THE MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN IS QUICK...BUT THE FORCING IS LAGGING BACK A BIT. WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING POPS INTO THE FAR WEST BETWEEN 09-12Z THU. TEMPS
WILL PROBABLY BOTTOM OUT AROUND MIDNIGHT...THEN HOLD STEADY OR RISE
A BIT AS THE CLOUDS ROLL IN...COUPLED WITH WEAK WARM ADVECTION.

.THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
WEAKENING SURFACE TROUGH COMBINED WITH 850 TROUGH AND MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE STILL ON TRACK TO BRING A PERIOD OF SHRA ACROSS SRN WI.
MESO MODELS SHOW A FAIRLY BRIEF DURATION PRECIP EVENT WITH 3-4
HOURS OF PRECIP BEFORE WINDING DOWN. GFS AND ECMWF KEEP ERN CWA
MAINLY DRY THROUGH 18Z WHILE THE NAM IS QUICKER BRINGING PRECIP TO
THE LAKE MI SHORE. WILL LINGER POPS IN THE FAR EAST INTO THE
EVENING HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SOMEWHAT SLOWER ECMWF/GFS
SOLUTIONS. THE NAM SHOWS VERY LITTLE PRECIP AFTER 00Z.

.FRIDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
MID LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW TAKES ON ANTICYCLONIC LOOK. ANOTHER
SURFACE/850 TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA. THE NAM IS THE ONLY MODEL
TO GENERATE LIGHT PRECIP WITH THE OTHER MODELS SHOWING A FAIRLY
DRY COLUMN. THE 925 TEMPS ARE PROGGD TO WARM INTO THE 11-13C
RANGE. SO BARRING ANY SURPRISE STRATUS THAT THE NAM IS LATCHING
ONTO...TEMPS SHOULD MAKE THE 60S AT INLAND LOCALES. CERTAINLY SOME
POTENTIAL FOR AN ONSHORE FLOW SO KEPT EASTERN AREAS COOLER.

.SATURDAY AND SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
MID LEVEL RIDGING BUBBLES UP OVER THE WEEKEND. SURFACE HIGH
SLIDES ACROSS AND SHIFTS TO THE EAST FOR SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR A RETURN FLOW WARMUP. A BRIEF DROPOFF IN 925 TEMPS SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY 925 TEMPS BOUNCING BACK TO 8-12C FOR
SUNDAY. THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY WARMER. ANY PRECIP LOOKS TO REMAIN
WEST OF THE CWA IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO SOUTHERLY 850 LLJ.

.SUNDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
LLJ TRANSLATES EASTWARD WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING WAA
DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF UNSETTLED TROUGH IN THE WESTERN U.S.

.MONDAY AND TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW
MODELS HAVE BEEN BOUNCING AROUND WITH TRACK OF SURFACE LOW. ECMWF
HAD TRENDED TOWARDS THE GFS AND NOW THE 00Z RUN HAS SHIFTED BACK
TO THE MORE NORTHWEST TRACK ACROSS MN. HOWEVER ECMWF NOW SHOWS A
PRIOR GFS IDEA OF DEVELOPING SECONDARY WAVE WITH EXTENSIVE FRONTAL
PRECIP ACROSS IL INTO SRN WI THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WHILE MODEL
DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST IT APPEARS MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT HAS THE
BETTER POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIEST AND MOST EXTENSIVE PRECIP. SEEING
ENOUGH ON THE LLJ/INSTAB FRONT TO AT LEAST PUT IN A MENTION OF
THUNDER AT THIS TIME FOR MON/MON NGT. ECMWF WITH THE SLOWER AND
SECONDARY LOW SUGGESTS TUESDAY ENDS UP ON THE WETTER SIDE WHILE
THE GFS SHOWS A QUIETER PATTERN WITH STRONGER NORTHERN LOW LIFTING
AWAY WITH BEST PRECIP CHANCES IN NRN WI. FOR NOW DID NOT ALTER THE
SUPERBLEND POPS GIVEN THE MODEL DIFFERENCES.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...AFTER SOME EARLY MORNING FOG BURNS OFF SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING...LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10KTS. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST
TO EAST LATER TONIGHT AS A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DAVIS
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...COLLAR





000
FXUS63 KMKX 220225
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
925 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...MAY EXPERIENCE A BLEND OF FROST AND FREEZING FOG LATER
TONIGHT DUE TO MODERATE TO STRONG INVERSION SETTING UP AND
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. AS TEMPS FALL BELOW FREEZING...
PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG MAY DEPOSIT THIN ICE COATING ON SUSCEPTIBLE
PORTIONS OF ROADWAYS. WL NEED TO WATCH PAVEMENT TEMPS CLOSELY
LATER TONIGHT. LOWERED MOST LOCATIONS MINIMUM TEMPERATURE
OVERNIGHT SEVERAL DEGREES. SOME LOCATIONS MAY FALL INTO THE MID
20S.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...THINKING MOST OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WL
GO INTO FROST DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER NOT IMPOSSIBLE SOME PATCHY LIGHT
FOG MAY DEVELOP. TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS
POINT. OTRW VFR CONDITIONS FOR THIS TAF PERIOD WITH LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...WILL LET SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY RUN ITS COURSE AND EXPIRE
AT 06Z. NORTHEAST WINDS STILL GUSTING UP TO 20 KNOTS AT THE
LAKESHORE WITH SUSTAINED WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS ON THE SHORE AND ON
OFFSHORE VESSELS. WAVE HEIGHTS STILL 5 FEET AT THE BUOY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

AREA OF LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTH
SOUTHWEST AND SLOWLY DISSIPATE UNTIL SUNSET...PER 1000/850MB
RELATIVE HUMIDITY FIELDS IN MODELS AND HRRR CEILING FORECASTS.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT...THEN TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL WEAKEN WITH THE HIGH THIS EVENING...WITH
LIGHT/CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY.

LOW TEMPERATURES WILL TUMBLE INTO THE 29 TO 34 DEGREE RANGE AWAY
FROM LAKE MICHIGAN TONIGHT...SO MORE FROST IS EXPECTED EXCEPT RIGHT
ALONG THE LAKESHORE. HIGHS WEDNESDAY SHOULD ONLY REACH THE LOWER TO
MID 50S...PER 925 MB TEMPERATURE FIELDS FROM MODELS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS WED NT AND INTO
THE WRN GREAT LAKES FOR THU. AT THE SFC...A WEAKENING TROUGH WILL
ACCOMPANY THE UPPER FEATURE AND MOVE ACROSS SRN WI THU NT ALONG
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE EVENING. DUE TO THE
WEAKENING OF THE TROUGH AND SLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT...AN EAST TO WEST
POP GRADIENT IS FORECAST OVER THE AREA. LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WI FROM THU AM INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH ONLY
CHANCES IN FAR ERN WI. TEMPS WILL REMAIN COOL FOR THU. LOW POPS
WILL LINGER INTO THU NT WITH DRYING AFTERWARD. A WEAK SFC RIDGE
WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE THU NT AND FRI. IN ADDITION...A
DRY ATM AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT WILL LEAD TO MILD TEMPS FOR
FRI.

LONG TERM...

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

A WLY FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING INTO SAT AHEAD OF A
AN APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT FROM CANADA. THE POLAR TROUGH AND
SFC LOW WITH THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN IN CANADA...THUS THE FRONT
WILL BE DRY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR SAT NT AND
TRANSITION TO SLY FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION FOR SUN. THE WAA PATTERN
IS DUE TO CYCLOGENESIS FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO CANADA. A BROAD
N-S UPPER TROUGH WILL THEN TRACK ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT
PLAINS FOR SUN NT AND MON. ONLY A WEAK N-S SFC TROUGH IS EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME WITH ONLY LOW POPS FOR PCPN FOR MON-TUE...BUT
STRONGER CYCLOGENESIS AND HIGHER CHANCES OF RAIN COULD BE
POSSIBLE.


AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER UNTIL SUNSET ACROSS TAF SITES.
OVERCAST SKIES WILL BECOME BROKEN...THEN SCATTER OUT BY EARLY THIS
EVENING. SKIES SHOULD THEN REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. MAY SEE SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

BRISK NORTH WINDS WILL LINGER UNTIL SUNSET AT THE EASTERN TAF
SITES...WITH NORTHEAST WINDS AT MADISON. WINDS WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT
AND BECOME EASTERLY...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY.

MARINE...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES UNTIL 06Z WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE
NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN. GUSTY NORTH WINDS OF 15 TO 20
KNOTS ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY EVENING...WITH A FEW 25 KNOT GUSTS.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT WAVES OF 3 TO 6 FEET. WINDS AND WAVES
WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING...AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WEAKENS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MBK





000
FXUS63 KMKX 220225
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
925 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...MAY EXPERIENCE A BLEND OF FROST AND FREEZING FOG LATER
TONIGHT DUE TO MODERATE TO STRONG INVERSION SETTING UP AND
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. AS TEMPS FALL BELOW FREEZING...
PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG MAY DEPOSIT THIN ICE COATING ON SUSCEPTIBLE
PORTIONS OF ROADWAYS. WL NEED TO WATCH PAVEMENT TEMPS CLOSELY
LATER TONIGHT. LOWERED MOST LOCATIONS MINIMUM TEMPERATURE
OVERNIGHT SEVERAL DEGREES. SOME LOCATIONS MAY FALL INTO THE MID
20S.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...THINKING MOST OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WL
GO INTO FROST DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER NOT IMPOSSIBLE SOME PATCHY LIGHT
FOG MAY DEVELOP. TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS
POINT. OTRW VFR CONDITIONS FOR THIS TAF PERIOD WITH LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...WILL LET SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY RUN ITS COURSE AND EXPIRE
AT 06Z. NORTHEAST WINDS STILL GUSTING UP TO 20 KNOTS AT THE
LAKESHORE WITH SUSTAINED WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS ON THE SHORE AND ON
OFFSHORE VESSELS. WAVE HEIGHTS STILL 5 FEET AT THE BUOY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

AREA OF LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTH
SOUTHWEST AND SLOWLY DISSIPATE UNTIL SUNSET...PER 1000/850MB
RELATIVE HUMIDITY FIELDS IN MODELS AND HRRR CEILING FORECASTS.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT...THEN TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL WEAKEN WITH THE HIGH THIS EVENING...WITH
LIGHT/CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY.

LOW TEMPERATURES WILL TUMBLE INTO THE 29 TO 34 DEGREE RANGE AWAY
FROM LAKE MICHIGAN TONIGHT...SO MORE FROST IS EXPECTED EXCEPT RIGHT
ALONG THE LAKESHORE. HIGHS WEDNESDAY SHOULD ONLY REACH THE LOWER TO
MID 50S...PER 925 MB TEMPERATURE FIELDS FROM MODELS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS WED NT AND INTO
THE WRN GREAT LAKES FOR THU. AT THE SFC...A WEAKENING TROUGH WILL
ACCOMPANY THE UPPER FEATURE AND MOVE ACROSS SRN WI THU NT ALONG
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE EVENING. DUE TO THE
WEAKENING OF THE TROUGH AND SLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT...AN EAST TO WEST
POP GRADIENT IS FORECAST OVER THE AREA. LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WI FROM THU AM INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH ONLY
CHANCES IN FAR ERN WI. TEMPS WILL REMAIN COOL FOR THU. LOW POPS
WILL LINGER INTO THU NT WITH DRYING AFTERWARD. A WEAK SFC RIDGE
WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE THU NT AND FRI. IN ADDITION...A
DRY ATM AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT WILL LEAD TO MILD TEMPS FOR
FRI.

LONG TERM...

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

A WLY FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING INTO SAT AHEAD OF A
AN APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT FROM CANADA. THE POLAR TROUGH AND
SFC LOW WITH THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN IN CANADA...THUS THE FRONT
WILL BE DRY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR SAT NT AND
TRANSITION TO SLY FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION FOR SUN. THE WAA PATTERN
IS DUE TO CYCLOGENESIS FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO CANADA. A BROAD
N-S UPPER TROUGH WILL THEN TRACK ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT
PLAINS FOR SUN NT AND MON. ONLY A WEAK N-S SFC TROUGH IS EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME WITH ONLY LOW POPS FOR PCPN FOR MON-TUE...BUT
STRONGER CYCLOGENESIS AND HIGHER CHANCES OF RAIN COULD BE
POSSIBLE.


AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER UNTIL SUNSET ACROSS TAF SITES.
OVERCAST SKIES WILL BECOME BROKEN...THEN SCATTER OUT BY EARLY THIS
EVENING. SKIES SHOULD THEN REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. MAY SEE SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

BRISK NORTH WINDS WILL LINGER UNTIL SUNSET AT THE EASTERN TAF
SITES...WITH NORTHEAST WINDS AT MADISON. WINDS WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT
AND BECOME EASTERLY...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY.

MARINE...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES UNTIL 06Z WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE
NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN. GUSTY NORTH WINDS OF 15 TO 20
KNOTS ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY EVENING...WITH A FEW 25 KNOT GUSTS.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT WAVES OF 3 TO 6 FEET. WINDS AND WAVES
WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING...AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WEAKENS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MBK





000
FXUS63 KMKX 212001
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
301 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

AREA OF LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTH
SOUTHWEST AND SLOWLY DISSIPATE UNTIL SUNSET...PER 1000/850MB
RELATIVE HUMIDITY FIELDS IN MODELS AND HRRR CEILING FORECASTS.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT...THEN TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL WEAKEN WITH THE HIGH THIS EVENING...WITH
LIGHT/CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY.

LOW TEMPERATURES WILL TUMBLE INTO THE 29 TO 34 DEGREE RANGE AWAY
FROM LAKE MICHIGAN TONIGHT...SO MORE FROST IS EXPECTED EXCEPT RIGHT
ALONG THE LAKESHORE. HIGHS WEDNESDAY SHOULD ONLY REACH THE LOWER TO
MID 50S...PER 925 MB TEMPERATURE FIELDS FROM MODELS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS WED NT AND INTO
THE WRN GREAT LAKES FOR THU. AT THE SFC...A WEAKENING TROUGH WILL
ACCOMPANY THE UPPER FEATURE AND MOVE ACROSS SRN WI THU NT ALONG
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE EVENING. DUE TO THE
WEAKENING OF THE TROUGH AND SLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT...AN EAST TO WEST
POP GRADIENT IS FORECAST OVER THE AREA. LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WI FROM THU AM INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH ONLY
CHANCES IN FAR ERN WI. TEMPS WILL REMAIN COOL FOR THU. LOW POPS
WILL LINGER INTO THU NT WITH DRYING AFTERWARD. A WEAK SFC RIDGE
WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE THU NT AND FRI. IN ADDITION...A
DRY ATM AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT WILL LEAD TO MILD TEMPS FOR
FRI.


.LONG TERM...

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

A WLY FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING INTO SAT AHEAD OF A
AN APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT FROM CANADA. THE POLAR TROUGH AND
SFC LOW WITH THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN IN CANADA...THUS THE FRONT
WILL BE DRY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR SAT NT AND
TRANSITION TO SLY FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION FOR SUN. THE WAA PATTERN
IS DUE TO CYCLOGENESIS FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO CANADA. A BROAD
N-S UPPER TROUGH WILL THEN TRACK ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT
PLAINS FOR SUN NT AND MON. ONLY A WEAK N-S SFC TROUGH IS EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME WITH ONLY LOW POPS FOR PCPN FOR MON-TUE...BUT
STRONGER CYCLOGENESIS AND HIGHER CHANCES OF RAIN COULD BE
POSSIBLE.


&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER UNTIL SUNSET ACROSS TAF SITES.
OVERCAST SKIES WILL BECOME BROKEN...THEN SCATTER OUT BY EARLY THIS
EVENING. SKIES SHOULD THEN REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. MAY SEE SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

BRISK NORTH WINDS WILL LINGER UNTIL SUNSET AT THE EASTERN TAF
SITES...WITH NORTHEAST WINDS AT MADISON. WINDS WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT
AND BECOME EASTERLY...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES UNTIL 06Z WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE
NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN. GUSTY NORTH WINDS OF 15 TO 20
KNOTS ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY EVENING...WITH A FEW 25 KNOT GUSTS.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT WAVES OF 3 TO 6 FEET. WINDS AND WAVES
WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING...AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WEAKENS.


&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...WOOD
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...GEHRING





000
FXUS63 KMKX 212001
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
301 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

AREA OF LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTH
SOUTHWEST AND SLOWLY DISSIPATE UNTIL SUNSET...PER 1000/850MB
RELATIVE HUMIDITY FIELDS IN MODELS AND HRRR CEILING FORECASTS.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT...THEN TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL WEAKEN WITH THE HIGH THIS EVENING...WITH
LIGHT/CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY.

LOW TEMPERATURES WILL TUMBLE INTO THE 29 TO 34 DEGREE RANGE AWAY
FROM LAKE MICHIGAN TONIGHT...SO MORE FROST IS EXPECTED EXCEPT RIGHT
ALONG THE LAKESHORE. HIGHS WEDNESDAY SHOULD ONLY REACH THE LOWER TO
MID 50S...PER 925 MB TEMPERATURE FIELDS FROM MODELS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS WED NT AND INTO
THE WRN GREAT LAKES FOR THU. AT THE SFC...A WEAKENING TROUGH WILL
ACCOMPANY THE UPPER FEATURE AND MOVE ACROSS SRN WI THU NT ALONG
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE EVENING. DUE TO THE
WEAKENING OF THE TROUGH AND SLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT...AN EAST TO WEST
POP GRADIENT IS FORECAST OVER THE AREA. LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WI FROM THU AM INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH ONLY
CHANCES IN FAR ERN WI. TEMPS WILL REMAIN COOL FOR THU. LOW POPS
WILL LINGER INTO THU NT WITH DRYING AFTERWARD. A WEAK SFC RIDGE
WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE THU NT AND FRI. IN ADDITION...A
DRY ATM AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT WILL LEAD TO MILD TEMPS FOR
FRI.


.LONG TERM...

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

A WLY FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING INTO SAT AHEAD OF A
AN APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT FROM CANADA. THE POLAR TROUGH AND
SFC LOW WITH THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN IN CANADA...THUS THE FRONT
WILL BE DRY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR SAT NT AND
TRANSITION TO SLY FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION FOR SUN. THE WAA PATTERN
IS DUE TO CYCLOGENESIS FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO CANADA. A BROAD
N-S UPPER TROUGH WILL THEN TRACK ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT
PLAINS FOR SUN NT AND MON. ONLY A WEAK N-S SFC TROUGH IS EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME WITH ONLY LOW POPS FOR PCPN FOR MON-TUE...BUT
STRONGER CYCLOGENESIS AND HIGHER CHANCES OF RAIN COULD BE
POSSIBLE.


&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER UNTIL SUNSET ACROSS TAF SITES.
OVERCAST SKIES WILL BECOME BROKEN...THEN SCATTER OUT BY EARLY THIS
EVENING. SKIES SHOULD THEN REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. MAY SEE SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

BRISK NORTH WINDS WILL LINGER UNTIL SUNSET AT THE EASTERN TAF
SITES...WITH NORTHEAST WINDS AT MADISON. WINDS WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT
AND BECOME EASTERLY...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES UNTIL 06Z WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE
NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN. GUSTY NORTH WINDS OF 15 TO 20
KNOTS ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY EVENING...WITH A FEW 25 KNOT GUSTS.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT WAVES OF 3 TO 6 FEET. WINDS AND WAVES
WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING...AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WEAKENS.


&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...WOOD
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...GEHRING





000
FXUS63 KMKX 211636 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1136 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...

AREA OF LOW CLOUDS CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA LATE THIS MORNING. SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUD INFLUENCE
SEEN...WITH FAVORABLE DELTA T VALUES. 1000/850MB RELATIVE
HUMIDITY FIELDS AND AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THIS MOISTURE
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH/SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...EXITING DURING THE EVENING. MAY SEE SOME SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CLOUDS WITH DAYTIME HEATING IN SPOTS.

THERE IS SOME DRY AIR MOVING TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHEAST...WHICH SHOULD WORK INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
THUS...SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO SCATTERED TO BROKEN
CLOUDS BY MIDDLE TO LATE AFTERNOON...ENDING DURING THE EVENING.
HIGHS SHOULD REMAIN CLOSE TO CURRENT TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA
WITH THE CLOUDS LINGERING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO MIDDLE TO LATE AFTERNOON
ACROSS TAF SITES. OVERCAST SKIES SHOULD BECOME BROKEN DURING THE
AFTERNOON...AND SCATTER OUT BY THIS EVENING. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. MAY SEE SOME
DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

BRISK NORTH WINDS WILL LINGER THIS AFTERNOON AT THE EASTERN TAF
SITES...WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL REMAIN
AT MADISON AS WELL. WINDS WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT AND BECOME
EASTERLY...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES UNTIL 06Z WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE
NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN. GUSTY NORTH WINDS OF 15 TO 20
KNOTS ARE EXPECTED...WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT WAVES OF 3 TO 6 FEET THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS AND WAVES WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING...AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT OFF
TO THE EAST WHILE A CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS BUILDS ACROSS
THE WESTERN LAKES.  NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING LOW LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION TO THE AREA AND DELTA T/S OVER THE WATER WILL CLIMB TO
AROUND 10C. WINDS WILL ALSO BE TURNING NORTHEAST WITH TIME TODAY AND
ALL THIS COMPLICATES THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR TODAY...CLOUD
COVER.  IT/S STILL VERY EXTENSIVE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST...BUT
SHOWING SOME HOLES TO THE NORTHWEST.  IT LOOKS LIKE THE CLOUDS WILL
HANG IN LONGER ACROSS THE EAST THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...POSSIBLY
INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON.  THE CLEARING LINE SHOULD SLICE THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE FCST AREA BY MID TO LATE MORNING. SOME OF THE MESO
MODELS PRODUCE SOME SPECKLED VERY LIGHT QPF NEAR THE LAKE...BUT
DON/T BELIEVE IT WILL BE ENOUGH TO MEASURE.  WILL LEAVE OUT ANY
PRECIP MENTION AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE OUT OVER THE LAKE
FOR ANY LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES HEADED FOR THE SHORE.

WE SHOULD EVENTUALLY SEE CLEARING FOR TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD. WEATHER NIL WITH CHILLY TEMPS.

WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
SURFACE/850 RIDGE AXES SHIFT EAST. MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS RIGHT
ACROSS WI WITH LARGE UPPER LOW IN THE FAR ERN US WITH TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS. LINGERING INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH
STARTS TO WANE IN THE AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL WINDS SHIFT FROM AN
EASTERLY DIRECTION TO MORE SOUTHERLY. MOISTURE/DYNAMICS
WISE...THINGS ARE STILL LOOKING BETTER TO OUR WEST IN THE PLAINS
CLOSER TO THE ADVANCING VORTICITY AND LOW LEVEL TROUGH.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
UPPER DYNAMICS APPROACH ALONG WITH LOWER LEVEL TROUGH. MOISTURE
ADVECTION INCREASES WITH TIME THOUGH 850 LLJ RELATIVELY WEAK.
GEM/NAM AND ECMWF ARE ALL AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING RAIN ACROSS CWA
ESP DURG THE AFTN WITH THE WRN CWA HAVING THE BETTER SHOT IN THE
MRNG. GFS HAS A DRIER LOOK WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL
REACHING FAR ERN CWA BY 00Z. SO HAVE BOOSTED POPS ACROSS THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL CWA AND KEPT POPS LOWER IN THE FAR EAST TO
ACCOUNT FOR POTENTIALLY SLOWER SATURATION WITH LINGERING DRY AIR
THOUGH IF ECMWF/NAM/GEM TRENDS PERSIST THESE POPS WILL NEED
BOOSTING PRIOR TO 00Z AS WELL. WITH FORCING SHIFTING EAST DURING
THURSDAY NIGHT HAVE TRENDED POPS LOWER WITH TIME...THOUGH BETTER
POPS IN THE EAST DURING THE EVENING HOURS...AS ECMWF SHOWS
SECONDARY UPPER WAVE RIDING SOUTHEAST WHICH MAY LINGER POPS A BIT
LONGER IN THE ERN CWA.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
BROAD MID LEVEL RIDGING TAKES HOLD WITH A WARMING TREND. THE
MILDEST AIR PER THE GFS GETS DRAWN NORTHWARD FOR SUNDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE ORGANIZES WITH DEVELOPING MID LEVEL TROUGH PUSHING INTO
THE ROCKIES. THE GFS SHOWS 925 TEMPS WARMING TO NEAR 19C. PER
COLLAB WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...BOOSTED THE SUPERBLEND TEMPS A
BIT FOR SUNDAY. EVEN THE SOMEWHAT COOLER ECMWF SUGGESTS THAT
INLAND HIGHS MAY BE TOO COOL PER THE SUPERBLEND.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW
MODELS DIVERGE WITH TRACK OF SURFACE LOW EVOLVING FROM THE
WESTERN TROUGH. THE GFS TAKES A SOUTHERN TRACK WITH PRECIP MORE
ACROSS CNTRL/SRN WI WITH THE LOW MOVING THROUGH SRN WI ON MONDAY.
MEANWHILE THE ECMWF HAS THE LOW TRACK FURTHER NORTHWEST WITH
LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP IN SRN WI AND THE WARM WEDGE OF 19C PUSHING
INTO SRN WI MONDAY. SUPERBLEND TAKES INTO ACCOUNT THE COOLER
SOLUTION OF THE GFS BUT WILL BE TOO COOL AND NEED BOOSTING IF
LATER RUNS SUPPORT THE ECMWF.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM NORTH TO NORTHEAST BY MID
MORNING AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. LOW PRESSURE
WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION
PUSHING DOWN THE LAKE WILL LIKELY KEEP CLOUDS LOCKED IN OVER THE SOUTHEAST
WISCONSIN TAF SETS THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR THE CIGS
TO BECOME MVFR BETWEEN 12-15Z THIS MORNING. KMSN IS MORE QUESTIONABLE
WITH RESPECT TO CLOUD COVER. CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR AND CLEAR THAT AREA
BY LATE MORNING...POSSIBLY EARLIER. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT
UNDER QUIET HIGH PRESSURE. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT THE LOWER CLOUDS
MAY HANG ON IN THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE EVENING...BUT WILL FOR NOW WILL
GO WITH CLEARING SKIES BY SUNSET.

MARINE...PERSISTENT NORTH THEN NORTHEAST WINDS WILL KEEP ELEVATED
WAVES OF 3 TO 5 FEET WITHIN THE NEARSHORE WATERS THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WOOD
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DAVIS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...COLLAR





000
FXUS63 KMKX 210814
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
314 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT OFF
TO THE EAST WHILE A CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS BUILDS ACROSS
THE WESTERN LAKES.  NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING LOW LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION TO THE AREA AND DELTA T/S OVER THE WATER WILL CLIMB TO
AROUND 10C. WINDS WILL ALSO BE TURNING NORTHEAST WITH TIME TODAY AND
ALL THIS COMPLICATES THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR TODAY...CLOUD
COVER.  IT/S STILL VERY EXTENSIVE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST...BUT
SHOWING SOME HOLES TO THE NORTHWEST.  IT LOOKS LIKE THE CLOUDS WILL
HANG IN LONGER ACROSS THE EAST THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...POSSIBLY
INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON.  THE CLEARING LINE SHOULD SLICE THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE FCST AREA BY MID TO LATE MORNING. SOME OF THE MESO
MODELS PRODUCE SOME SPECKLED VERY LIGHT QPF NEAR THE LAKE...BUT
DON/T BELIEVE IT WILL BE ENOUGH TO MEASURE.  WILL LEAVE OUT ANY
PRECIP MENTION AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE OUT OVER THE LAKE
FOR ANY LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES HEADED FOR THE SHORE.

WE SHOULD EVENTUALLY SEE CLEARING FOR TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD. WEATHER NIL WITH CHILLY TEMPS.

.WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
SURFACE/850 RIDGE AXES SHIFT EAST. MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS RIGHT
ACROSS WI WITH LARGE UPPER LOW IN THE FAR ERN US WITH TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS. LINGERING INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH
STARTS TO WANE IN THE AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL WINDS SHIFT FROM AN
EASTERLY DIRECTION TO MORE SOUTHERLY. MOISTURE/DYNAMICS
WISE...THINGS ARE STILL LOOKING BETTER TO OUR WEST IN THE PLAINS
CLOSER TO THE ADVANCING VORTICITY AND LOW LEVEL TROUGH.

.THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
UPPER DYNAMICS APPROACH ALONG WITH LOWER LEVEL TROUGH. MOISTURE
ADVECTION INCREASES WITH TIME THOUGH 850 LLJ RELATIVELY WEAK.
GEM/NAM AND ECMWF ARE ALL AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING RAIN ACROSS CWA
ESP DURG THE AFTN WITH THE WRN CWA HAVING THE BETTER SHOT IN THE
MRNG. GFS HAS A DRIER LOOK WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL
REACHING FAR ERN CWA BY 00Z. SO HAVE BOOSTED POPS ACROSS THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL CWA AND KEPT POPS LOWER IN THE FAR EAST TO
ACCOUNT FOR POTENTIALLY SLOWER SATURATION WITH LINGERING DRY AIR
THOUGH IF ECMWF/NAM/GEM TRENDS PERSIST THESE POPS WILL NEED
BOOSTING PRIOR TO 00Z AS WELL. WITH FORCING SHIFTING EAST DURING
THURSDAY NIGHT HAVE TRENDED POPS LOWER WITH TIME...THOUGH BETTER
POPS IN THE EAST DURING THE EVENING HOURS...AS ECMWF SHOWS
SECONDARY UPPER WAVE RIDING SOUTHEAST WHICH MAY LINGER POPS A BIT
LONGER IN THE ERN CWA.

.FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
BROAD MID LEVEL RIDGING TAKES HOLD WITH A WARMING TREND. THE
MILDEST AIR PER THE GFS GETS DRAWN NORTHWARD FOR SUNDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE ORGANIZES WITH DEVELOPING MID LEVEL TROUGH PUSHING INTO
THE ROCKIES. THE GFS SHOWS 925 TEMPS WARMING TO NEAR 19C. PER
COLLAB WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...BOOSTED THE SUPERBLEND TEMPS A
BIT FOR SUNDAY. EVEN THE SOMEWHAT COOLER ECMWF SUGGESTS THAT
INLAND HIGHS MAY BE TOO COOL PER THE SUPERBLEND.

.SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW
MODELS DIVERGE WITH TRACK OF SURFACE LOW EVOLVING FROM THE
WESTERN TROUGH. THE GFS TAKES A SOUTHERN TRACK WITH PRECIP MORE
ACROSS CNTRL/SRN WI WITH THE LOW MOVING THROUGH SRN WI ON MONDAY.
MEANWHILE THE ECMWF HAS THE LOW TRACK FURTHER NORTHWEST WITH
LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP IN SRN WI AND THE WARM WEDGE OF 19C PUSHING
INTO SRN WI MONDAY. SUPERBLEND TAKES INTO ACCOUNT THE COOLER
SOLUTION OF THE GFS BUT WILL BE TOO COOL AND NEED BOOSTING IF
LATER RUNS SUPPORT THE ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM NORTH TO NORTHEAST BY MID
MORNING AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. LOW PRESSURE
WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION
PUSHING DOWN THE LAKE WILL LIKELY KEEP CLOUDS LOCKED IN OVER THE SOUTHEAST
WISCONSIN TAF SETS THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR THE CIGS
TO BECOME MVFR BETWEEN 12-15Z THIS MORNING. KMSN IS MORE QUESTIONABLE
WITH RESPECT TO CLOUD COVER. CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR AND CLEAR THAT AREA
BY LATE MORNING...POSSIBLY EARLIER. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT
UNDER QUIET HIGH PRESSURE. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT THE LOWER CLOUDS
MAY HANG ON IN THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE EVENING...BUT WILL FOR NOW WILL
GO WITH CLEARING SKIES BY SUNSET.

&&

.MARINE...PERSISTENT NORTH THEN NORTHEAST WINDS WILL KEEP ELEVATED
WAVES OF 3 TO 5 FEET WITHIN THE NEARSHORE WATERS THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DAVIS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...COLLAR




000
FXUS63 KMKX 210814
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
314 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT OFF
TO THE EAST WHILE A CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS BUILDS ACROSS
THE WESTERN LAKES.  NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING LOW LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION TO THE AREA AND DELTA T/S OVER THE WATER WILL CLIMB TO
AROUND 10C. WINDS WILL ALSO BE TURNING NORTHEAST WITH TIME TODAY AND
ALL THIS COMPLICATES THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR TODAY...CLOUD
COVER.  IT/S STILL VERY EXTENSIVE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST...BUT
SHOWING SOME HOLES TO THE NORTHWEST.  IT LOOKS LIKE THE CLOUDS WILL
HANG IN LONGER ACROSS THE EAST THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...POSSIBLY
INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON.  THE CLEARING LINE SHOULD SLICE THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE FCST AREA BY MID TO LATE MORNING. SOME OF THE MESO
MODELS PRODUCE SOME SPECKLED VERY LIGHT QPF NEAR THE LAKE...BUT
DON/T BELIEVE IT WILL BE ENOUGH TO MEASURE.  WILL LEAVE OUT ANY
PRECIP MENTION AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE OUT OVER THE LAKE
FOR ANY LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES HEADED FOR THE SHORE.

WE SHOULD EVENTUALLY SEE CLEARING FOR TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD. WEATHER NIL WITH CHILLY TEMPS.

.WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
SURFACE/850 RIDGE AXES SHIFT EAST. MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS RIGHT
ACROSS WI WITH LARGE UPPER LOW IN THE FAR ERN US WITH TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS. LINGERING INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH
STARTS TO WANE IN THE AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL WINDS SHIFT FROM AN
EASTERLY DIRECTION TO MORE SOUTHERLY. MOISTURE/DYNAMICS
WISE...THINGS ARE STILL LOOKING BETTER TO OUR WEST IN THE PLAINS
CLOSER TO THE ADVANCING VORTICITY AND LOW LEVEL TROUGH.

.THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
UPPER DYNAMICS APPROACH ALONG WITH LOWER LEVEL TROUGH. MOISTURE
ADVECTION INCREASES WITH TIME THOUGH 850 LLJ RELATIVELY WEAK.
GEM/NAM AND ECMWF ARE ALL AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING RAIN ACROSS CWA
ESP DURG THE AFTN WITH THE WRN CWA HAVING THE BETTER SHOT IN THE
MRNG. GFS HAS A DRIER LOOK WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL
REACHING FAR ERN CWA BY 00Z. SO HAVE BOOSTED POPS ACROSS THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL CWA AND KEPT POPS LOWER IN THE FAR EAST TO
ACCOUNT FOR POTENTIALLY SLOWER SATURATION WITH LINGERING DRY AIR
THOUGH IF ECMWF/NAM/GEM TRENDS PERSIST THESE POPS WILL NEED
BOOSTING PRIOR TO 00Z AS WELL. WITH FORCING SHIFTING EAST DURING
THURSDAY NIGHT HAVE TRENDED POPS LOWER WITH TIME...THOUGH BETTER
POPS IN THE EAST DURING THE EVENING HOURS...AS ECMWF SHOWS
SECONDARY UPPER WAVE RIDING SOUTHEAST WHICH MAY LINGER POPS A BIT
LONGER IN THE ERN CWA.

.FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
BROAD MID LEVEL RIDGING TAKES HOLD WITH A WARMING TREND. THE
MILDEST AIR PER THE GFS GETS DRAWN NORTHWARD FOR SUNDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE ORGANIZES WITH DEVELOPING MID LEVEL TROUGH PUSHING INTO
THE ROCKIES. THE GFS SHOWS 925 TEMPS WARMING TO NEAR 19C. PER
COLLAB WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...BOOSTED THE SUPERBLEND TEMPS A
BIT FOR SUNDAY. EVEN THE SOMEWHAT COOLER ECMWF SUGGESTS THAT
INLAND HIGHS MAY BE TOO COOL PER THE SUPERBLEND.

.SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW
MODELS DIVERGE WITH TRACK OF SURFACE LOW EVOLVING FROM THE
WESTERN TROUGH. THE GFS TAKES A SOUTHERN TRACK WITH PRECIP MORE
ACROSS CNTRL/SRN WI WITH THE LOW MOVING THROUGH SRN WI ON MONDAY.
MEANWHILE THE ECMWF HAS THE LOW TRACK FURTHER NORTHWEST WITH
LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP IN SRN WI AND THE WARM WEDGE OF 19C PUSHING
INTO SRN WI MONDAY. SUPERBLEND TAKES INTO ACCOUNT THE COOLER
SOLUTION OF THE GFS BUT WILL BE TOO COOL AND NEED BOOSTING IF
LATER RUNS SUPPORT THE ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM NORTH TO NORTHEAST BY MID
MORNING AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. LOW PRESSURE
WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION
PUSHING DOWN THE LAKE WILL LIKELY KEEP CLOUDS LOCKED IN OVER THE SOUTHEAST
WISCONSIN TAF SETS THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR THE CIGS
TO BECOME MVFR BETWEEN 12-15Z THIS MORNING. KMSN IS MORE QUESTIONABLE
WITH RESPECT TO CLOUD COVER. CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR AND CLEAR THAT AREA
BY LATE MORNING...POSSIBLY EARLIER. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT
UNDER QUIET HIGH PRESSURE. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT THE LOWER CLOUDS
MAY HANG ON IN THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE EVENING...BUT WILL FOR NOW WILL
GO WITH CLEARING SKIES BY SUNSET.

&&

.MARINE...PERSISTENT NORTH THEN NORTHEAST WINDS WILL KEEP ELEVATED
WAVES OF 3 TO 5 FEET WITHIN THE NEARSHORE WATERS THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DAVIS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...COLLAR





000
FXUS63 KMKX 210234
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
934 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...STILL A FEW SPRINKLES HANGING ON IN THE EAST AS WEAK
SHORT WAVE TROUGH SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST. WL BE MORE PESSIMISTIC
REGARDING CLOUD COVER TONIGHT DUE TO STRENGHTENING THERMAL TROF
OVER ERN WI AND LINGERING CYCLONIC FLOW. WL HANG ONTO CLOUDS IN
THE EAST THRU TUE MRNG AS WELL. MOIST LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW MAY
RESULT IN THE LOW CLOUDS POTENTIALLY LINGERING INTO TUE EVE IN
THE EAST. NUDGED OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS UP SEVERAL DEGREES DUE TO THE
PERSISTENT CLOUDS.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...ONSHORE FLOW LIKELY TO RESULT IN A PERIOD OF
MVFR CIGS FOR A TIME LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY IN ERN TAF SITES.
LOWER CLOUDS MAY HANG ON FOR MUCH OF TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS BEGINNNING TO INCREASE OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS
AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATE STEEPENS.
WL CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WITH STRONGEST WINDS ANTICIPATED
LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. LOW LEVEL WINDS WL TURN
ONSHORE CREATING LONGER FETCH AND HIGHER WAVES ON TUESDAY BEFORE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

COULD SEE A FEW SPRINKLES IN THE EAST THIS EVENING AS A MID-LEVEL
VORTMAX ROTATES THROUGH...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE FOR POPS AT
THIS POINT. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO LINGER IN THE
NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO TONIGHT UNDER NORTHWEST
FLOW...LIKELY HANGING AROUND IN THE EAST THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY
MORNING. WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD SEE MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS.

COLDER TEMPS ALOFT WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. SHOULD SEE
LOWS RIGHT NEAR NORMAL TONIGHT...WITH HIGHS A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL TUESDAY.

..TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
MEDIUM.

A MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY WHICH
WILL BRING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. MODELS ARE
SUGGESTING SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION OVER SOUTHEAST WI
ON LIGHT EASTERLY RETURN FLOW EARLY WED MORNING WHICH WOULD PRODUCE
A FEW LOW CLOUDS. ANY CLOUDS WILL KEEP MIN TEMPS A LITTLE HIGHER
THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. EXPECTING SKIES TO REMAIN CLEAR FOR MOST
OF THE NIGHT WELL INLAND WHICH WILL ALLOW MIN TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE
LOWER 30S AND ALSO SOME PATCHY FOG.

PLAN ON MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WEDNESDAY WITH A FEW DIURNAL CU WITH A
LAKE BREEZE. LOOK FOR INCREASING CLOUDS WED NIGHT WITH AN
APPROACHING SYSTEM

THURSDAY AND BEYOND...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST
THU. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODELS THAT LIGHT SHOWERS
SHOULD MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN WI DURING THE DAY THU AND TAPER OFF
OVERNIGHT THU NIGHT. THE GFS SHOWS SATURATED LOW LEVELS THROUGH THE
NIGHT WHILE THE NAM DRIES IT OUT QUICKER. IF THE GFS SOLUTION PANS
OUT...THEN WE CAN EXPECT DRIZZLE AND LOW CLOUDS LINGERING THROUGH
EARLY FRI MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL SETTLE BACK INTO THE
REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. A STRONG UPPER TROUGH OVER ONTARIO CANADA
COULD LEAD TO SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AS FAR SOUTH AS SOUTHERN
WI... BUT OVERALL WE SHOULD BE IN THE WARM AIR AREA. IN FACT...
FORECAST MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 60S ARE LITTLE ON THE CONSERVATIVE
SIDE AND MID TO UPPER 60S ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

WILL SEE VFR CLOUDS LINGER ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHEAST
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO TONIGHT. COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS
IN THE EAST THIS EVENING...BUT MOST PLACES WILL REMAIN DRY.

CLOUDS WILL LINGER IN THE EAST TUESDAY. STILL SOME INDICATION THAT
CIGS MAY BE MVFR FOR A TIME...SO OPTED TO PUT MVFR INTO TAFS.

MARINE...

KEPT THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS IS FOR LATER THIS EVENING INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. BEST CHANCE FOR GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS AND WAVES GREATER
THAN 4 FEET WILL BE TOWARD OPEN WATERS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MBK





000
FXUS63 KMKX 210234
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
934 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...STILL A FEW SPRINKLES HANGING ON IN THE EAST AS WEAK
SHORT WAVE TROUGH SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST. WL BE MORE PESSIMISTIC
REGARDING CLOUD COVER TONIGHT DUE TO STRENGHTENING THERMAL TROF
OVER ERN WI AND LINGERING CYCLONIC FLOW. WL HANG ONTO CLOUDS IN
THE EAST THRU TUE MRNG AS WELL. MOIST LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW MAY
RESULT IN THE LOW CLOUDS POTENTIALLY LINGERING INTO TUE EVE IN
THE EAST. NUDGED OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS UP SEVERAL DEGREES DUE TO THE
PERSISTENT CLOUDS.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...ONSHORE FLOW LIKELY TO RESULT IN A PERIOD OF
MVFR CIGS FOR A TIME LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY IN ERN TAF SITES.
LOWER CLOUDS MAY HANG ON FOR MUCH OF TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS BEGINNNING TO INCREASE OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS
AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATE STEEPENS.
WL CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WITH STRONGEST WINDS ANTICIPATED
LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. LOW LEVEL WINDS WL TURN
ONSHORE CREATING LONGER FETCH AND HIGHER WAVES ON TUESDAY BEFORE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

COULD SEE A FEW SPRINKLES IN THE EAST THIS EVENING AS A MID-LEVEL
VORTMAX ROTATES THROUGH...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE FOR POPS AT
THIS POINT. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO LINGER IN THE
NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO TONIGHT UNDER NORTHWEST
FLOW...LIKELY HANGING AROUND IN THE EAST THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY
MORNING. WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD SEE MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS.

COLDER TEMPS ALOFT WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. SHOULD SEE
LOWS RIGHT NEAR NORMAL TONIGHT...WITH HIGHS A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL TUESDAY.

..TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
MEDIUM.

A MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY WHICH
WILL BRING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. MODELS ARE
SUGGESTING SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION OVER SOUTHEAST WI
ON LIGHT EASTERLY RETURN FLOW EARLY WED MORNING WHICH WOULD PRODUCE
A FEW LOW CLOUDS. ANY CLOUDS WILL KEEP MIN TEMPS A LITTLE HIGHER
THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. EXPECTING SKIES TO REMAIN CLEAR FOR MOST
OF THE NIGHT WELL INLAND WHICH WILL ALLOW MIN TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE
LOWER 30S AND ALSO SOME PATCHY FOG.

PLAN ON MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WEDNESDAY WITH A FEW DIURNAL CU WITH A
LAKE BREEZE. LOOK FOR INCREASING CLOUDS WED NIGHT WITH AN
APPROACHING SYSTEM

THURSDAY AND BEYOND...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST
THU. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODELS THAT LIGHT SHOWERS
SHOULD MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN WI DURING THE DAY THU AND TAPER OFF
OVERNIGHT THU NIGHT. THE GFS SHOWS SATURATED LOW LEVELS THROUGH THE
NIGHT WHILE THE NAM DRIES IT OUT QUICKER. IF THE GFS SOLUTION PANS
OUT...THEN WE CAN EXPECT DRIZZLE AND LOW CLOUDS LINGERING THROUGH
EARLY FRI MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL SETTLE BACK INTO THE
REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. A STRONG UPPER TROUGH OVER ONTARIO CANADA
COULD LEAD TO SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AS FAR SOUTH AS SOUTHERN
WI... BUT OVERALL WE SHOULD BE IN THE WARM AIR AREA. IN FACT...
FORECAST MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 60S ARE LITTLE ON THE CONSERVATIVE
SIDE AND MID TO UPPER 60S ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

WILL SEE VFR CLOUDS LINGER ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHEAST
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO TONIGHT. COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS
IN THE EAST THIS EVENING...BUT MOST PLACES WILL REMAIN DRY.

CLOUDS WILL LINGER IN THE EAST TUESDAY. STILL SOME INDICATION THAT
CIGS MAY BE MVFR FOR A TIME...SO OPTED TO PUT MVFR INTO TAFS.

MARINE...

KEPT THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS IS FOR LATER THIS EVENING INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. BEST CHANCE FOR GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS AND WAVES GREATER
THAN 4 FEET WILL BE TOWARD OPEN WATERS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MBK




000
FXUS63 KMKX 202029
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
329 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

COULD SEE A FEW SPRINKLES IN THE EAST THIS EVENING AS A MID-LEVEL
VORTMAX ROTATES THROUGH...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE FOR POPS AT
THIS POINT. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO LINGER IN THE
NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO TONIGHT UNDER NORTHWEST
FLOW...LIKELY HANGING AROUND IN THE EAST THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY
MORNING. WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD SEE MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS.

COLDER TEMPS ALOFT WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. SHOULD SEE
LOWS RIGHT NEAR NORMAL TONIGHT...WITH HIGHS A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL TUESDAY.

...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
MEDIUM.

A MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY WHICH
WILL BRING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. MODELS ARE
SUGGESTING SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION OVER SOUTHEAST WI
ON LIGHT EASTERLY RETURN FLOW EARLY WED MORNING WHICH WOULD PRODUCE
A FEW LOW CLOUDS. ANY CLOUDS WILL KEEP MIN TEMPS A LITTLE HIGHER
THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. EXPECTING SKIES TO REMAIN CLEAR FOR MOST
OF THE NIGHT WELL INLAND WHICH WILL ALLOW MIN TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE
LOWER 30S AND ALSO SOME PATCHY FOG.

PLAN ON MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WEDNESDAY WITH A FEW DIURNAL CU WITH A
LAKE BREEZE. LOOK FOR INCREASING CLOUDS WED NIGHT WITH AN
APPROACHING SYSTEM

.THURSDAY AND BEYOND...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST
THU. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODELS THAT LIGHT SHOWERS
SHOULD MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN WI DURING THE DAY THU AND TAPER OFF
OVERNIGHT THU NIGHT. THE GFS SHOWS SATURATED LOW LEVELS THROUGH THE
NIGHT WHILE THE NAM DRIES IT OUT QUICKER. IF THE GFS SOLUTION PANS
OUT...THEN WE CAN EXPECT DRIZZLE AND LOW CLOUDS LINGERING THROUGH
EARLY FRI MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL SETTLE BACK INTO THE
REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. A STRONG UPPER TROUGH OVER ONTARIO CANADA
COULD LEAD TO SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AS FAR SOUTH AS SOUTHERN
WI... BUT OVERALL WE SHOULD BE IN THE WARM AIR AREA. IN FACT...
FORECAST MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 60S ARE LITTLE ON THE CONSERVATIVE
SIDE AND MID TO UPPER 60S ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

WILL SEE VFR CLOUDS LINGER ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHEAST
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO TONIGHT. COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS
IN THE EAST THIS EVENING...BUT MOST PLACES WILL REMAIN DRY.

CLOUDS WILL LINGER IN THE EAST TUESDAY. STILL SOME INDICATION THAT
CIGS MAY BE MVFR FOR A TIME...SO OPTED TO PUT MVFR INTO TAFS.

&&

.MARINE...

KEPT THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS IS FOR LATER THIS EVENING INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. BEST CHANCE FOR GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS AND WAVES GREATER
THAN 4 FEET WILL BE TOWARD OPEN WATERS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM CDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

TONIGHT/TUESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...DDV
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MRC




000
FXUS63 KMKX 202029
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
329 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

COULD SEE A FEW SPRINKLES IN THE EAST THIS EVENING AS A MID-LEVEL
VORTMAX ROTATES THROUGH...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE FOR POPS AT
THIS POINT. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO LINGER IN THE
NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO TONIGHT UNDER NORTHWEST
FLOW...LIKELY HANGING AROUND IN THE EAST THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY
MORNING. WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD SEE MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS.

COLDER TEMPS ALOFT WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. SHOULD SEE
LOWS RIGHT NEAR NORMAL TONIGHT...WITH HIGHS A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL TUESDAY.

...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
MEDIUM.

A MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY WHICH
WILL BRING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. MODELS ARE
SUGGESTING SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION OVER SOUTHEAST WI
ON LIGHT EASTERLY RETURN FLOW EARLY WED MORNING WHICH WOULD PRODUCE
A FEW LOW CLOUDS. ANY CLOUDS WILL KEEP MIN TEMPS A LITTLE HIGHER
THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. EXPECTING SKIES TO REMAIN CLEAR FOR MOST
OF THE NIGHT WELL INLAND WHICH WILL ALLOW MIN TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE
LOWER 30S AND ALSO SOME PATCHY FOG.

PLAN ON MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WEDNESDAY WITH A FEW DIURNAL CU WITH A
LAKE BREEZE. LOOK FOR INCREASING CLOUDS WED NIGHT WITH AN
APPROACHING SYSTEM

.THURSDAY AND BEYOND...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST
THU. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODELS THAT LIGHT SHOWERS
SHOULD MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN WI DURING THE DAY THU AND TAPER OFF
OVERNIGHT THU NIGHT. THE GFS SHOWS SATURATED LOW LEVELS THROUGH THE
NIGHT WHILE THE NAM DRIES IT OUT QUICKER. IF THE GFS SOLUTION PANS
OUT...THEN WE CAN EXPECT DRIZZLE AND LOW CLOUDS LINGERING THROUGH
EARLY FRI MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL SETTLE BACK INTO THE
REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. A STRONG UPPER TROUGH OVER ONTARIO CANADA
COULD LEAD TO SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AS FAR SOUTH AS SOUTHERN
WI... BUT OVERALL WE SHOULD BE IN THE WARM AIR AREA. IN FACT...
FORECAST MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 60S ARE LITTLE ON THE CONSERVATIVE
SIDE AND MID TO UPPER 60S ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

WILL SEE VFR CLOUDS LINGER ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHEAST
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO TONIGHT. COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS
IN THE EAST THIS EVENING...BUT MOST PLACES WILL REMAIN DRY.

CLOUDS WILL LINGER IN THE EAST TUESDAY. STILL SOME INDICATION THAT
CIGS MAY BE MVFR FOR A TIME...SO OPTED TO PUT MVFR INTO TAFS.

&&

.MARINE...

KEPT THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS IS FOR LATER THIS EVENING INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. BEST CHANCE FOR GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS AND WAVES GREATER
THAN 4 FEET WILL BE TOWARD OPEN WATERS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM CDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

TONIGHT/TUESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...DDV
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MRC





000
FXUS63 KMKX 201557 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1057 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
EAST...BUT MAIN STORY WILL BE INCREASING CLOUDS INTO THE
AFTERNOON. SHOULD SEE ALL BUT THE SOUTHWEST FORECAST AREA BECOME
MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS WILL LIKELY BE REACHED BEFORE THE CLOUDS MOVE
IN...WITH TEMPS HOLDING FAIRLY STEADY AFTER THAT.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. CIGS SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR. COULD
SEE A FEW SHOWERS IN THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MOST PLACES
WILL REMAIN DRY. LATEST NAM SUGGESTS MVFR CIGS IN THE EAST
TOMORROW. WILL TAKE A LOOK AT FULL 12Z SUITE OF MODEL DATA AND
CONSIDER THIS POSSIBILITY FOR 18Z TAFS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 437 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

WARM ADVECTION RAIN SHOWERS HAVE MOVED OFF TO THE EAST WITH LEAD
SHORT WAVE. MODELS HAVE GOOD HANDLE ON MAIN SHORT WAVE...CURRENTLY
OVER LSE ON WATER VAPOR LOOPS...MOVING IT ACROSS SRN WI/NRN IL
THIS MORNING. NO RETURNS ON REGIONAL RADARS AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE
OR SURFACE COLD FRONT DUE TO LACK OF MOISTURE... WHICH CONFIRMS
DRY PROFILES ON AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS.

EXPECT CLOUDS TO DROP INTO THE REGION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WITH
850 MB COLD POOL BEHIND THE SECOND WAVE AND THE COLD FRONT...WHICH
MOVES THROUGH SE WI BY OR SHORTLY AFTER 12Z. CURRENT STRATUS DECK
ACROSS SRN ONTARIO AND LAKE SUPERIOR MOVING INTO NE MN AND THE
U.P. ALIGNS WELL WITH 925-850 MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY OF 90 PCT OR
HIGHER...WHICH SPREADS INTO NE SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE
THIS MORNING AND THROUGH THE REST OF THE CWA EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON.

ALONG WITH THE CLOUDS...THE 850 MB COLD POOL ALSO PRODUCES SOME
OMEGA WITH STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WITH A LITTLE CAPE
IN THE 900-800 MB LAYER. MOST MODELS KEEP PCPN TO THE EAST OVER
THE LAKE WHERE FAVORABLE WATER TEMPERATURE/850 MB TEMP DELTA T/S
MAKE SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS MORE LIKELY. WILL KEEP BUT TRIM
BACK TOWARD THE LAKE THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FAR EAST.

QUIET WEATHER TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS REGION. WITH
CLOUD COVER LIMITING NOCTURNAL INVERSION...LOOKING AT LOWS HOLDING
IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S WITH GIVEN 925 MB TEMPS AND NEAR
ISOTHERMAL PROFILE.

SHORT TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE
REGION ON TUESDAY...WITH NORTH NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL WINDS
OCCURRING NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BRING
MAINLY LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS NEAR THE LAKE...WITH DELTA T VALUES
AROUND 11 DEGREES CELSIUS WITH MOIST LOW LEVELS.

THE DELTA T VALUES DIMINISH QUITE A BIT TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE
LOW LEVELS DRYING OUT...SO THE CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE.

COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
925 MB TEMPERATURE FIELDS ON MODELS SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE UPPER
40S EAST TO LOWER 50S WEST TUESDAY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD DROP
INTO THE LOWER 30S INLAND...MILDER ALONG THE LAKE.

AXIS OF 500 MB RIDGE SHIFTS OVER THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE SHIFTING SLOWLY EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL KEEP INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION DURING THIS
TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE A BIT...BUT REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ARE BRINGING A POTENT 500 MB UPPER LOW
SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA THURSDAY...THEN ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT. QPF ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...AND SOME WARM AIR
ADVECTION...PUSH THROUGH THE AREA DURING THIS TIME. GFS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING SOME RELATIVELY DEEP MOISTURE WITH THIS
SYSTEM. CONTINUED LOWER END POPS FOR THIS PERIOD...THOUGH MAY NEED
TO BE RAISED IN LATER FORECASTS IF MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT.

MODELS THEN ARE SHOWING A TRANSITION TO A BROAD 500 MB RIDGE OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. GRADUAL WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURS AT THE
SURFACE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...THEN INCREASES IN MAGNITUDE ON
SUNDAY. OVERALL...IT LOOKS MILD AND DRY FOR THIS PERIOD.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

EXPECT COLD FRONT AND SHIFT OF WINDS TO THE WEST TO CLEAR FAR SE
WI AROUND/SHORTLY AFTER 12Z. WINDS TURN NW MID TO LATE MORNING
WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS. EXPECT STRATOCU DECK TO DROP INTO THE
REGION...REACHING A KMSN TO KMKE LINE BY 16Z AND KENW BY 18Z.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW CLOUD DECK TO
HOLD IN THE 3500 TO 4000 FT RANGE. CLOUDS EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT
AT KMSN AROUND 03Z...BUT REMAIN NO BETTER THAN BROKEN AT EASTERN
SITES.

MARINE...

HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY BEGINNING THIS EVENING THROUGH
THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS OF TUESDAY NIGHT. WHILE NORTH WINDS ARE
MARGINAL...THOUGH THERE WILL BE GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS AT TIMES LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THE NORTHERLY FETCH WILL BUILD
3 TO 6 FOOT WAVES BY MID-EVENING. WINDS EASE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BUT WAVES WILL BE SLOWER TO SUBSIDE UNTIL THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM CDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DDV
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...REM
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WOOD




000
FXUS63 KMKX 201557 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1057 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
EAST...BUT MAIN STORY WILL BE INCREASING CLOUDS INTO THE
AFTERNOON. SHOULD SEE ALL BUT THE SOUTHWEST FORECAST AREA BECOME
MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS WILL LIKELY BE REACHED BEFORE THE CLOUDS MOVE
IN...WITH TEMPS HOLDING FAIRLY STEADY AFTER THAT.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. CIGS SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR. COULD
SEE A FEW SHOWERS IN THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MOST PLACES
WILL REMAIN DRY. LATEST NAM SUGGESTS MVFR CIGS IN THE EAST
TOMORROW. WILL TAKE A LOOK AT FULL 12Z SUITE OF MODEL DATA AND
CONSIDER THIS POSSIBILITY FOR 18Z TAFS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 437 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

WARM ADVECTION RAIN SHOWERS HAVE MOVED OFF TO THE EAST WITH LEAD
SHORT WAVE. MODELS HAVE GOOD HANDLE ON MAIN SHORT WAVE...CURRENTLY
OVER LSE ON WATER VAPOR LOOPS...MOVING IT ACROSS SRN WI/NRN IL
THIS MORNING. NO RETURNS ON REGIONAL RADARS AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE
OR SURFACE COLD FRONT DUE TO LACK OF MOISTURE... WHICH CONFIRMS
DRY PROFILES ON AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS.

EXPECT CLOUDS TO DROP INTO THE REGION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WITH
850 MB COLD POOL BEHIND THE SECOND WAVE AND THE COLD FRONT...WHICH
MOVES THROUGH SE WI BY OR SHORTLY AFTER 12Z. CURRENT STRATUS DECK
ACROSS SRN ONTARIO AND LAKE SUPERIOR MOVING INTO NE MN AND THE
U.P. ALIGNS WELL WITH 925-850 MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY OF 90 PCT OR
HIGHER...WHICH SPREADS INTO NE SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE
THIS MORNING AND THROUGH THE REST OF THE CWA EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON.

ALONG WITH THE CLOUDS...THE 850 MB COLD POOL ALSO PRODUCES SOME
OMEGA WITH STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WITH A LITTLE CAPE
IN THE 900-800 MB LAYER. MOST MODELS KEEP PCPN TO THE EAST OVER
THE LAKE WHERE FAVORABLE WATER TEMPERATURE/850 MB TEMP DELTA T/S
MAKE SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS MORE LIKELY. WILL KEEP BUT TRIM
BACK TOWARD THE LAKE THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FAR EAST.

QUIET WEATHER TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS REGION. WITH
CLOUD COVER LIMITING NOCTURNAL INVERSION...LOOKING AT LOWS HOLDING
IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S WITH GIVEN 925 MB TEMPS AND NEAR
ISOTHERMAL PROFILE.

SHORT TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE
REGION ON TUESDAY...WITH NORTH NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL WINDS
OCCURRING NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BRING
MAINLY LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS NEAR THE LAKE...WITH DELTA T VALUES
AROUND 11 DEGREES CELSIUS WITH MOIST LOW LEVELS.

THE DELTA T VALUES DIMINISH QUITE A BIT TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE
LOW LEVELS DRYING OUT...SO THE CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE.

COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
925 MB TEMPERATURE FIELDS ON MODELS SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE UPPER
40S EAST TO LOWER 50S WEST TUESDAY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD DROP
INTO THE LOWER 30S INLAND...MILDER ALONG THE LAKE.

AXIS OF 500 MB RIDGE SHIFTS OVER THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE SHIFTING SLOWLY EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL KEEP INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION DURING THIS
TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE A BIT...BUT REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ARE BRINGING A POTENT 500 MB UPPER LOW
SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA THURSDAY...THEN ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT. QPF ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...AND SOME WARM AIR
ADVECTION...PUSH THROUGH THE AREA DURING THIS TIME. GFS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING SOME RELATIVELY DEEP MOISTURE WITH THIS
SYSTEM. CONTINUED LOWER END POPS FOR THIS PERIOD...THOUGH MAY NEED
TO BE RAISED IN LATER FORECASTS IF MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT.

MODELS THEN ARE SHOWING A TRANSITION TO A BROAD 500 MB RIDGE OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. GRADUAL WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURS AT THE
SURFACE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...THEN INCREASES IN MAGNITUDE ON
SUNDAY. OVERALL...IT LOOKS MILD AND DRY FOR THIS PERIOD.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

EXPECT COLD FRONT AND SHIFT OF WINDS TO THE WEST TO CLEAR FAR SE
WI AROUND/SHORTLY AFTER 12Z. WINDS TURN NW MID TO LATE MORNING
WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS. EXPECT STRATOCU DECK TO DROP INTO THE
REGION...REACHING A KMSN TO KMKE LINE BY 16Z AND KENW BY 18Z.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW CLOUD DECK TO
HOLD IN THE 3500 TO 4000 FT RANGE. CLOUDS EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT
AT KMSN AROUND 03Z...BUT REMAIN NO BETTER THAN BROKEN AT EASTERN
SITES.

MARINE...

HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY BEGINNING THIS EVENING THROUGH
THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS OF TUESDAY NIGHT. WHILE NORTH WINDS ARE
MARGINAL...THOUGH THERE WILL BE GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS AT TIMES LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THE NORTHERLY FETCH WILL BUILD
3 TO 6 FOOT WAVES BY MID-EVENING. WINDS EASE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BUT WAVES WILL BE SLOWER TO SUBSIDE UNTIL THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM CDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DDV
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...REM
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WOOD





000
FXUS63 KMKX 200937 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
437 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

WARM ADVECTION RAIN SHOWERS HAVE MOVED OFF TO THE EAST WITH LEAD
SHORT WAVE. MODELS HAVE GOOD HANDLE ON MAIN SHORT WAVE...CURRENTLY
OVER LSE ON WATER VAPOR LOOPS...MOVING IT ACROSS SRN WI/NRN IL
THIS MORNING. NO RETURNS ON REGIONAL RADARS AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE
OR SURFACE COLD FRONT DUE TO LACK OF MOISTURE... WHICH CONFIRMS
DRY PROFILES ON AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS.

EXPECT CLOUDS TO DROP INTO THE REGION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WITH
850 MB COLD POOL BEHIND THE SECOND WAVE AND THE COLD FRONT...WHICH
MOVES THROUGH SE WI BY OR SHORTLY AFTER 12Z. CURRENT STRATUS DECK
ACROSS SRN ONTARIO AND LAKE SUPERIOR MOVING INTO NE MN AND THE
U.P. ALIGNS WELL WITH 925-850 MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY OF 90 PCT OR
HIGHER...WHICH SPREADS INTO NE SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE
THIS MORNING AND THROUGH THE REST OF THE CWA EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON.

ALONG WITH THE CLOUDS...THE 850 MB COLD POOL ALSO PRODUCES SOME
OMEGA WITH STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WITH A LITTLE CAPE
IN THE 900-800 MB LAYER. MOST MODELS KEEP PCPN TO THE EAST OVER
THE LAKE WHERE FAVORABLE WATER TEMPERATURE/850 MB TEMP DELTA T/S
MAKE SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS MORE LIKELY. WILL KEEP BUT TRIM
BACK TOWARD THE LAKE THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FAR EAST.

QUIET WEATHER TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS REGION. WITH
CLOUD COVER LIMITING NOCTURNAL INVERSION...LOOKING AT LOWS HOLDING
IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S WITH GIVEN 925 MB TEMPS AND NEAR
ISOTHERMAL PROFILE.

.SHORT TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE
REGION ON TUESDAY...WITH NORTH NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL WINDS
OCCURRING NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BRING
MAINLY LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS NEAR THE LAKE...WITH DELTA T VALUES
AROUND 11 DEGREES CELSIUS WITH MOIST LOW LEVELS.

THE DELTA T VALUES DIMINISH QUITE A BIT TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE
LOW LEVELS DRYING OUT...SO THE CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE.

COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
925 MB TEMPERATURE FIELDS ON MODELS SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE UPPER
40S EAST TO LOWER 50S WEST TUESDAY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD DROP
INTO THE LOWER 30S INLAND...MILDER ALONG THE LAKE.

AXIS OF 500 MB RIDGE SHIFTS OVER THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE SHIFTING SLOWLY EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL KEEP INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION DURING THIS
TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE A BIT...BUT REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ARE BRINGING A POTENT 500 MB UPPER LOW
SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA THURSDAY...THEN ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT. QPF ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...AND SOME WARM AIR
ADVECTION...PUSH THROUGH THE AREA DURING THIS TIME. GFS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING SOME RELATIVELY DEEP MOISTURE WITH THIS
SYSTEM. CONTINUED LOWER END POPS FOR THIS PERIOD...THOUGH MAY NEED
TO BE RAISED IN LATER FORECASTS IF MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT.

MODELS THEN ARE SHOWING A TRANSITION TO A BROAD 500 MB RIDGE OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. GRADUAL WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURS AT THE
SURFACE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...THEN INCREASES IN MAGNITUDE ON
SUNDAY. OVERALL...IT LOOKS MILD AND DRY FOR THIS PERIOD.

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

EXPECT COLD FRONT AND SHIFT OF WINDS TO THE WEST TO CLEAR FAR SE
WI AROUND/SHORTLY AFTER 12Z. WINDS TURN NW MID TO LATE MORNING
WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS. EXPECT STRATOCU DECK TO DROP INTO THE
REGION...REACHING A KMSN TO KMKE LINE BY 16Z AND KENW BY 18Z.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW CLOUD DECK TO
HOLD IN THE 3500 TO 4000 FT RANGE. CLOUDS EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT
AT KMSN AROUND 03Z...BUT REMAIN NO BETTER THAN BROKEN AT EASTERN
SITES.

MARINE...

HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY BEGINNING THIS EVENING THROUGH
THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS OF TUESDAY NIGHT. WHILE NORTH WINDS ARE
MARGINAL...THOUGH THERE WILL BE GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS AT TIMES LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THE NORTHERLY FETCH WILL BUILD
3 TO 6 FOOT WAVES BY MID-EVENING. WINDS EASE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BUT WAVES WILL BE SLOWER TO SUBSIDE UNTIL THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM CDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

...ADDED MARINE SECTION...
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...REM
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WOOD




000
FXUS63 KMKX 200937 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
437 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

WARM ADVECTION RAIN SHOWERS HAVE MOVED OFF TO THE EAST WITH LEAD
SHORT WAVE. MODELS HAVE GOOD HANDLE ON MAIN SHORT WAVE...CURRENTLY
OVER LSE ON WATER VAPOR LOOPS...MOVING IT ACROSS SRN WI/NRN IL
THIS MORNING. NO RETURNS ON REGIONAL RADARS AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE
OR SURFACE COLD FRONT DUE TO LACK OF MOISTURE... WHICH CONFIRMS
DRY PROFILES ON AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS.

EXPECT CLOUDS TO DROP INTO THE REGION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WITH
850 MB COLD POOL BEHIND THE SECOND WAVE AND THE COLD FRONT...WHICH
MOVES THROUGH SE WI BY OR SHORTLY AFTER 12Z. CURRENT STRATUS DECK
ACROSS SRN ONTARIO AND LAKE SUPERIOR MOVING INTO NE MN AND THE
U.P. ALIGNS WELL WITH 925-850 MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY OF 90 PCT OR
HIGHER...WHICH SPREADS INTO NE SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE
THIS MORNING AND THROUGH THE REST OF THE CWA EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON.

ALONG WITH THE CLOUDS...THE 850 MB COLD POOL ALSO PRODUCES SOME
OMEGA WITH STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WITH A LITTLE CAPE
IN THE 900-800 MB LAYER. MOST MODELS KEEP PCPN TO THE EAST OVER
THE LAKE WHERE FAVORABLE WATER TEMPERATURE/850 MB TEMP DELTA T/S
MAKE SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS MORE LIKELY. WILL KEEP BUT TRIM
BACK TOWARD THE LAKE THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FAR EAST.

QUIET WEATHER TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS REGION. WITH
CLOUD COVER LIMITING NOCTURNAL INVERSION...LOOKING AT LOWS HOLDING
IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S WITH GIVEN 925 MB TEMPS AND NEAR
ISOTHERMAL PROFILE.

.SHORT TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE
REGION ON TUESDAY...WITH NORTH NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL WINDS
OCCURRING NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BRING
MAINLY LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS NEAR THE LAKE...WITH DELTA T VALUES
AROUND 11 DEGREES CELSIUS WITH MOIST LOW LEVELS.

THE DELTA T VALUES DIMINISH QUITE A BIT TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE
LOW LEVELS DRYING OUT...SO THE CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE.

COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
925 MB TEMPERATURE FIELDS ON MODELS SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE UPPER
40S EAST TO LOWER 50S WEST TUESDAY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD DROP
INTO THE LOWER 30S INLAND...MILDER ALONG THE LAKE.

AXIS OF 500 MB RIDGE SHIFTS OVER THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE SHIFTING SLOWLY EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL KEEP INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION DURING THIS
TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE A BIT...BUT REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ARE BRINGING A POTENT 500 MB UPPER LOW
SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA THURSDAY...THEN ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT. QPF ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...AND SOME WARM AIR
ADVECTION...PUSH THROUGH THE AREA DURING THIS TIME. GFS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING SOME RELATIVELY DEEP MOISTURE WITH THIS
SYSTEM. CONTINUED LOWER END POPS FOR THIS PERIOD...THOUGH MAY NEED
TO BE RAISED IN LATER FORECASTS IF MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT.

MODELS THEN ARE SHOWING A TRANSITION TO A BROAD 500 MB RIDGE OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. GRADUAL WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURS AT THE
SURFACE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...THEN INCREASES IN MAGNITUDE ON
SUNDAY. OVERALL...IT LOOKS MILD AND DRY FOR THIS PERIOD.

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

EXPECT COLD FRONT AND SHIFT OF WINDS TO THE WEST TO CLEAR FAR SE
WI AROUND/SHORTLY AFTER 12Z. WINDS TURN NW MID TO LATE MORNING
WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS. EXPECT STRATOCU DECK TO DROP INTO THE
REGION...REACHING A KMSN TO KMKE LINE BY 16Z AND KENW BY 18Z.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW CLOUD DECK TO
HOLD IN THE 3500 TO 4000 FT RANGE. CLOUDS EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT
AT KMSN AROUND 03Z...BUT REMAIN NO BETTER THAN BROKEN AT EASTERN
SITES.

MARINE...

HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY BEGINNING THIS EVENING THROUGH
THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS OF TUESDAY NIGHT. WHILE NORTH WINDS ARE
MARGINAL...THOUGH THERE WILL BE GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS AT TIMES LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THE NORTHERLY FETCH WILL BUILD
3 TO 6 FOOT WAVES BY MID-EVENING. WINDS EASE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BUT WAVES WILL BE SLOWER TO SUBSIDE UNTIL THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM CDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

...ADDED MARINE SECTION...
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...REM
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WOOD





000
FXUS63 KMKX 200838
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
338 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

WARM ADVECTION RAIN SHOWERS HAVE MOVED OFF TO THE EAST WITH LEAD
SHORT WAVE. MODELS HAVE GOOD HANDLE ON MAIN SHORT WAVE...CURRENTLY
OVER LSE ON WATER VAPOR LOOPS...MOVING IT ACROSS SRN WI/NRN IL
THIS MORNING. NO RETURNS ON REGIONAL RADARS AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE
OR SURFACE COLD FRONT DUE TO LACK OF MOISTURE... WHICH CONFIRMS
DRY PROFILES ON AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS.

EXPECT CLOUDS TO DROP INTO THE REGION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WITH
850 MB COLD POOL BEHIND THE SECOND WAVE AND THE COLD FRONT...WHICH
MOVES THROUGH SE WI BY OR SHORTLY AFTER 12Z. CURRENT STRATUS DECK
ACROSS SRN ONTARIO AND LAKE SUPERIOR MOVING INTO NE MN AND THE
U.P. ALIGNS WELL WITH 925-850 MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY OF 90 PCT OR
HIGHER...WHICH SPREADS INTO NE SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE
THIS MORNING AND THROUGH THE REST OF THE CWA EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON.

ALONG WITH THE CLOUDS...THE 850 MB COLD POOL ALSO PRODUCES SOME
OMEGA WITH STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WITH A LITTLE CAPE
IN THE 900-800 MB LAYER. MOST MODELS KEEP PCPN TO THE EAST OVER
THE LAKE WHERE FAVORABLE WATER TEMPERATURE/850 MB TEMP DELTA T/S
MAKE SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS MORE LIKELY. WILL KEEP BUT TRIM
BACK TOWARD THE LAKE THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FAR EAST.

QUIET WEATHER TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS REGION. WITH
CLOUD COVER LIMITING NOCTURNAL INVERSION...LOOKING AT LOWS HOLDING
IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S WITH GIVEN 925 MB TEMPS AND NEAR
ISOTHERMAL PROFILE.

.SHORT TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE
REGION ON TUESDAY...WITH NORTH NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL WINDS
OCCURRING NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BRING
MAINLY LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS NEAR THE LAKE...WITH DELTA T VALUES
AROUND 11 DEGREES CELSIUS WITH MOIST LOW LEVELS.

THE DELTA T VALUES DIMINISH QUITE A BIT TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE
LOW LEVELS DRYING OUT...SO THE CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE.

COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
925 MB TEMPERATURE FIELDS ON MODELS SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE UPPER
40S EAST TO LOWER 50S WEST TUESDAY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD DROP
INTO THE LOWER 30S INLAND...MILDER ALONG THE LAKE.

AXIS OF 500 MB RIDGE SHIFTS OVER THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE SHIFTING SLOWLY EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL KEEP INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION DURING THIS
TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE A BIT...BUT REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ARE BRINGING A POTENT 500 MB UPPER LOW
SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA THURSDAY...THEN ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT. QPF ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...AND SOME WARM AIR
ADVECTION...PUSH THROUGH THE AREA DURING THIS TIME. GFS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING SOME RELATIVELY DEEP MOISTURE WITH THIS
SYSTEM. CONTINUED LOWER END POPS FOR THIS PERIOD...THOUGH MAY NEED
TO BE RAISED IN LATER FORECASTS IF MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT.

MODELS THEN ARE SHOWING A TRANSITION TO A BROAD 500 MB RIDGE OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. GRADUAL WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURS AT THE
SURFACE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...THEN INCREASES IN MAGNITUDE ON
SUNDAY. OVERALL...IT LOOKS MILD AND DRY FOR THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

EXPECT COLD FRONT AND SHIFT OF WINDS TO THE WEST TO CLEAR FAR SE
WI AROUND/SHORTLY AFTER 12Z. WINDS TURN NW MID TO LATE MORNING
WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS. EXPECT STRATOCU DECK TO DROP INTO THE
REGION...REACHING A KMSN TO KMKE LINE BY 16Z AND KENW BY 18Z.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW CLOUD DECK TO
HOLD IN THE 3500 TO 4000 FT RANGE. CLOUDS EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT
AT KMSN AROUND 03Z...BUT REMAIN NO BETTER THAN BROKEN AT EASTERN
SITES.

&&

.MARINE...COMING SHORTLY...

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM CDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...REM
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WOOD





000
FXUS63 KMKX 200838
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
338 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

WARM ADVECTION RAIN SHOWERS HAVE MOVED OFF TO THE EAST WITH LEAD
SHORT WAVE. MODELS HAVE GOOD HANDLE ON MAIN SHORT WAVE...CURRENTLY
OVER LSE ON WATER VAPOR LOOPS...MOVING IT ACROSS SRN WI/NRN IL
THIS MORNING. NO RETURNS ON REGIONAL RADARS AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE
OR SURFACE COLD FRONT DUE TO LACK OF MOISTURE... WHICH CONFIRMS
DRY PROFILES ON AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS.

EXPECT CLOUDS TO DROP INTO THE REGION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WITH
850 MB COLD POOL BEHIND THE SECOND WAVE AND THE COLD FRONT...WHICH
MOVES THROUGH SE WI BY OR SHORTLY AFTER 12Z. CURRENT STRATUS DECK
ACROSS SRN ONTARIO AND LAKE SUPERIOR MOVING INTO NE MN AND THE
U.P. ALIGNS WELL WITH 925-850 MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY OF 90 PCT OR
HIGHER...WHICH SPREADS INTO NE SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE
THIS MORNING AND THROUGH THE REST OF THE CWA EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON.

ALONG WITH THE CLOUDS...THE 850 MB COLD POOL ALSO PRODUCES SOME
OMEGA WITH STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WITH A LITTLE CAPE
IN THE 900-800 MB LAYER. MOST MODELS KEEP PCPN TO THE EAST OVER
THE LAKE WHERE FAVORABLE WATER TEMPERATURE/850 MB TEMP DELTA T/S
MAKE SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS MORE LIKELY. WILL KEEP BUT TRIM
BACK TOWARD THE LAKE THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FAR EAST.

QUIET WEATHER TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS REGION. WITH
CLOUD COVER LIMITING NOCTURNAL INVERSION...LOOKING AT LOWS HOLDING
IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S WITH GIVEN 925 MB TEMPS AND NEAR
ISOTHERMAL PROFILE.

.SHORT TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE
REGION ON TUESDAY...WITH NORTH NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL WINDS
OCCURRING NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BRING
MAINLY LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS NEAR THE LAKE...WITH DELTA T VALUES
AROUND 11 DEGREES CELSIUS WITH MOIST LOW LEVELS.

THE DELTA T VALUES DIMINISH QUITE A BIT TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE
LOW LEVELS DRYING OUT...SO THE CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE.

COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
925 MB TEMPERATURE FIELDS ON MODELS SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE UPPER
40S EAST TO LOWER 50S WEST TUESDAY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD DROP
INTO THE LOWER 30S INLAND...MILDER ALONG THE LAKE.

AXIS OF 500 MB RIDGE SHIFTS OVER THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE SHIFTING SLOWLY EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL KEEP INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION DURING THIS
TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE A BIT...BUT REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ARE BRINGING A POTENT 500 MB UPPER LOW
SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA THURSDAY...THEN ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT. QPF ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...AND SOME WARM AIR
ADVECTION...PUSH THROUGH THE AREA DURING THIS TIME. GFS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING SOME RELATIVELY DEEP MOISTURE WITH THIS
SYSTEM. CONTINUED LOWER END POPS FOR THIS PERIOD...THOUGH MAY NEED
TO BE RAISED IN LATER FORECASTS IF MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT.

MODELS THEN ARE SHOWING A TRANSITION TO A BROAD 500 MB RIDGE OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. GRADUAL WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURS AT THE
SURFACE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...THEN INCREASES IN MAGNITUDE ON
SUNDAY. OVERALL...IT LOOKS MILD AND DRY FOR THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

EXPECT COLD FRONT AND SHIFT OF WINDS TO THE WEST TO CLEAR FAR SE
WI AROUND/SHORTLY AFTER 12Z. WINDS TURN NW MID TO LATE MORNING
WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS. EXPECT STRATOCU DECK TO DROP INTO THE
REGION...REACHING A KMSN TO KMKE LINE BY 16Z AND KENW BY 18Z.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW CLOUD DECK TO
HOLD IN THE 3500 TO 4000 FT RANGE. CLOUDS EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT
AT KMSN AROUND 03Z...BUT REMAIN NO BETTER THAN BROKEN AT EASTERN
SITES.

&&

.MARINE...COMING SHORTLY...

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM CDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...REM
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WOOD




000
FXUS63 KMKX 200155
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
855 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES HAVE SPREAD ALL THE WAY INTO THE CENTRAL
FCST AREA THIS EVENING AS A POTENT MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED SFC TROF/CDFNT DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. HAVE UPDATED POPS TO REFLECT THIS FARTHER SOUTH TRAJECTORY.
IT/S PRETTY MINOR STUFF AND WILL STRUGGLE TO MEASURE...MAINLY
EXPECT TRACE AMOUNTS. DRY AIR IS PLENTIFUL JUST UPSTREAM...SO
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE OUT OF HERE BY MIDNIGHT.

IT DOES LOOK LIKE SOME LOWER CLOUDS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL DROP
SOUTH AND OVERSPREAD THE AREA BY MID TO LATE MORNING ON MONDAY.
THE GOING FORECAST HAS THIS HANDLED PRETTY WELL.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...

LOOK FOR MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS THROUGH ABOUT MID MORNING
ON MONDAY...THEN SOME LOWER CLOUDS WILL SPREAD SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA BY ABOUT MID DAY AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY EVENING. THESE
SHOULD REMAIN JUST ABOVE THE MVFR THRESHOLD...BUT SOME OF THE
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING WE COULD SEE A FEW MVFR CIGS LATER MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS SEEMS OVERLY PESSIMISTIC...SO WILL
KEEP IT VFR FOR NOW. OTHERWISE...NO AIRPORT OPERATIONAL CONCERNS.

&&

.MARINE...WILL KEEP THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. THERE ARE SOME STRONG WINDS ABOVE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER THAT AREN/T SHOWING UP VERY WELL AT THE LAND
OBSERVATIONS RIGHT NOW...BUT ARE LIKELY OCCURRING OVER THE
NEARSHORE WATERS. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

KEPT SOME LOW POPS IN THE EAST THIS EVENING BASED ON LATEST RADAR
AND MESOSCALE MODELS. IT LOOKS LIKE SKIES MAY CLEAR BEHIND THE
WAVE...THOUGH A COUPLE MODELS ARE TRYING TO DEVELOP SOME LOW STRATUS
LATER IN THE NIGHT. KEPT SOME CLOUD COVER BECAUSE OF THE
UNCERTAINTY.

COULD SEE A FEW MORE SHOWERS BRUSH THE EAST MONDAY AFTERNOON AS
ANOTHER WEAK WAVE DROPS THROUGH THE AREA. SHOULD SEE SKIES BECOME
MOSTLY CLOUDY BY MID OR LATE MORNING...WITH THE CLOUDS PERSISTING
THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAYTIME HOURS. STILL LOOKS LIKE HIGHS RIGHT
AROUND NORMAL TOMORROW.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

A LARGE POLAR TROUGH WILL BECOME CUT OFF OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE MOVES
FROM THE GREAT PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY. A NNELY FLOW
WILL PREVAIL OVER SRN WI FROM MON NT INTO TUE AND STRATUS IS
EXPECTED TO LINGER ESPECIALLY OVER ERN WI. A NELY FLOW FROM LAKE
MI AND LAKE TO 850 MB TEMP DIFFERENCES OF 11-13C WILL CONTRIBUTE
TO THE STRATUS LINGERING AT LEAST THROUGH TUE AM OVER FAR ERN WI.

A MERIDIONAL SFC HIGH AND UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN SETTLE OVER THE
WRN GREAT LAKES FOR TUE NT THROUGH WED NT. FAIR WX WILL PREVAIL.
HIGH TEMPS WILL BE COOL ON TUE BUT WARMING INTO WED.

LONG TERM...

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN DUE TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
INTO THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY ON THU. A SFC TROUGH ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER WAVE WILL DISSIPATE NEAR THE MS RIVER. SLIGHT
CHANCES OF SHOWERS ARE FORECAST OVER THE FAR WRN CWA DUE TO THESE
FEATURES. A WSWLY FLOW WILL THEN BRING MILD TEMPS FOR FRI AND THE
WEEKEND. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A COLD FRONT
ON SAT BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE WEAK IF IT DOES OCCUR.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. SOME
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING SOME LOWER STRATUS TONIGHT...BUT LOOKS LIKE
PRETTY GOOD CLEARING BEHIND THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. SKIES WILL
TURN MOSTLY CLOUDY MONDAY...WITH CIGS POSSIBLY APPROACHING MVFR.

COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS IN THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING
AND THEN AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT OTHERWISE IT LOOKS PRETTY
QUIET THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MARINE...

KEPT THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS IS FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY TONIGHT. BEST CHANCE FOR GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS WILL BE TOWARD OPEN
WATERS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM CDT MONDAY FOR LMZ644>646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DAVIS
TONIGHT/MONDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...DDV
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...GEHRING





000
FXUS63 KMKX 200155
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
855 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES HAVE SPREAD ALL THE WAY INTO THE CENTRAL
FCST AREA THIS EVENING AS A POTENT MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED SFC TROF/CDFNT DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. HAVE UPDATED POPS TO REFLECT THIS FARTHER SOUTH TRAJECTORY.
IT/S PRETTY MINOR STUFF AND WILL STRUGGLE TO MEASURE...MAINLY
EXPECT TRACE AMOUNTS. DRY AIR IS PLENTIFUL JUST UPSTREAM...SO
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE OUT OF HERE BY MIDNIGHT.

IT DOES LOOK LIKE SOME LOWER CLOUDS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL DROP
SOUTH AND OVERSPREAD THE AREA BY MID TO LATE MORNING ON MONDAY.
THE GOING FORECAST HAS THIS HANDLED PRETTY WELL.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...

LOOK FOR MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS THROUGH ABOUT MID MORNING
ON MONDAY...THEN SOME LOWER CLOUDS WILL SPREAD SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA BY ABOUT MID DAY AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY EVENING. THESE
SHOULD REMAIN JUST ABOVE THE MVFR THRESHOLD...BUT SOME OF THE
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING WE COULD SEE A FEW MVFR CIGS LATER MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS SEEMS OVERLY PESSIMISTIC...SO WILL
KEEP IT VFR FOR NOW. OTHERWISE...NO AIRPORT OPERATIONAL CONCERNS.

&&

.MARINE...WILL KEEP THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. THERE ARE SOME STRONG WINDS ABOVE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER THAT AREN/T SHOWING UP VERY WELL AT THE LAND
OBSERVATIONS RIGHT NOW...BUT ARE LIKELY OCCURRING OVER THE
NEARSHORE WATERS. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

KEPT SOME LOW POPS IN THE EAST THIS EVENING BASED ON LATEST RADAR
AND MESOSCALE MODELS. IT LOOKS LIKE SKIES MAY CLEAR BEHIND THE
WAVE...THOUGH A COUPLE MODELS ARE TRYING TO DEVELOP SOME LOW STRATUS
LATER IN THE NIGHT. KEPT SOME CLOUD COVER BECAUSE OF THE
UNCERTAINTY.

COULD SEE A FEW MORE SHOWERS BRUSH THE EAST MONDAY AFTERNOON AS
ANOTHER WEAK WAVE DROPS THROUGH THE AREA. SHOULD SEE SKIES BECOME
MOSTLY CLOUDY BY MID OR LATE MORNING...WITH THE CLOUDS PERSISTING
THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAYTIME HOURS. STILL LOOKS LIKE HIGHS RIGHT
AROUND NORMAL TOMORROW.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

A LARGE POLAR TROUGH WILL BECOME CUT OFF OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE MOVES
FROM THE GREAT PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY. A NNELY FLOW
WILL PREVAIL OVER SRN WI FROM MON NT INTO TUE AND STRATUS IS
EXPECTED TO LINGER ESPECIALLY OVER ERN WI. A NELY FLOW FROM LAKE
MI AND LAKE TO 850 MB TEMP DIFFERENCES OF 11-13C WILL CONTRIBUTE
TO THE STRATUS LINGERING AT LEAST THROUGH TUE AM OVER FAR ERN WI.

A MERIDIONAL SFC HIGH AND UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN SETTLE OVER THE
WRN GREAT LAKES FOR TUE NT THROUGH WED NT. FAIR WX WILL PREVAIL.
HIGH TEMPS WILL BE COOL ON TUE BUT WARMING INTO WED.

LONG TERM...

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN DUE TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
INTO THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY ON THU. A SFC TROUGH ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER WAVE WILL DISSIPATE NEAR THE MS RIVER. SLIGHT
CHANCES OF SHOWERS ARE FORECAST OVER THE FAR WRN CWA DUE TO THESE
FEATURES. A WSWLY FLOW WILL THEN BRING MILD TEMPS FOR FRI AND THE
WEEKEND. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A COLD FRONT
ON SAT BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE WEAK IF IT DOES OCCUR.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. SOME
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING SOME LOWER STRATUS TONIGHT...BUT LOOKS LIKE
PRETTY GOOD CLEARING BEHIND THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. SKIES WILL
TURN MOSTLY CLOUDY MONDAY...WITH CIGS POSSIBLY APPROACHING MVFR.

COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS IN THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING
AND THEN AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT OTHERWISE IT LOOKS PRETTY
QUIET THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MARINE...

KEPT THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS IS FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY TONIGHT. BEST CHANCE FOR GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS WILL BE TOWARD OPEN
WATERS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM CDT MONDAY FOR LMZ644>646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DAVIS
TONIGHT/MONDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...DDV
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...GEHRING




000
FXUS63 KMKX 192033
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
333 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

KEPT SOME LOW POPS IN THE EAST THIS EVENING BASED ON LATEST RADAR
AND MESOSCALE MODELS. IT LOOKS LIKE SKIES MAY CLEAR BEHIND THE
WAVE...THOUGH A COUPLE MODELS ARE TRYING TO DEVELOP SOME LOW STRATUS
LATER IN THE NIGHT. KEPT SOME CLOUD COVER BECAUSE OF THE
UNCERTAINTY.

COULD SEE A FEW MORE SHOWERS BRUSH THE EAST MONDAY AFTERNOON AS
ANOTHER WEAK WAVE DROPS THROUGH THE AREA. SHOULD SEE SKIES BECOME
MOSTLY CLOUDY BY MID OR LATE MORNING...WITH THE CLOUDS PERSISTING
THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAYTIME HOURS. STILL LOOKS LIKE HIGHS RIGHT
AROUND NORMAL TOMORROW.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

A LARGE POLAR TROUGH WILL BECOME CUT OFF OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE MOVES
FROM THE GREAT PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY. A NNELY FLOW
WILL PREVAIL OVER SRN WI FROM MON NT INTO TUE AND STRATUS IS
EXPECTED TO LINGER ESPECIALLY OVER ERN WI. A NELY FLOW FROM LAKE
MI AND LAKE TO 850 MB TEMP DIFFERENCES OF 11-13C WILL CONTRIBUTE
TO THE STRATUS LINGERING AT LEAST THROUGH TUE AM OVER FAR ERN WI.

A MERIDIONAL SFC HIGH AND UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN SETTLE OVER THE
WRN GREAT LAKES FOR TUE NT THROUGH WED NT. FAIR WX WILL PREVAIL.
HIGH TEMPS WILL BE COOL ON TUE BUT WARMING INTO WED.


.LONG TERM...

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN DUE TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
INTO THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY ON THU. A SFC TROUGH ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER WAVE WILL DISSIPATE NEAR THE MS RIVER. SLIGHT
CHANCES OF SHOWERS ARE FORECAST OVER THE FAR WRN CWA DUE TO THESE
FEATURES. A WSWLY FLOW WILL THEN BRING MILD TEMPS FOR FRI AND THE
WEEKEND. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A COLD FRONT
ON SAT BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE WEAK IF IT DOES OCCUR.


&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. SOME
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING SOME LOWER STRATUS TONIGHT...BUT LOOKS LIKE
PRETTY GOOD CLEARING BEHIND THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. SKIES WILL
TURN MOSTLY CLOUDY MONDAY...WITH CIGS POSSIBLY APPROACHING MVFR.

COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS IN THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING
AND THEN AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT OTHERWISE IT LOOKS PRETTY
QUIET THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...

KEPT THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS IS FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY TONIGHT. BEST CHANCE FOR GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS WILL BE TOWARD OPEN
WATERS.


&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM CDT MONDAY FOR LMZ644>646.

&&

$$

TONIGHT/MONDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...DDV
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...GEHRING




000
FXUS63 KMKX 192033
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
333 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

KEPT SOME LOW POPS IN THE EAST THIS EVENING BASED ON LATEST RADAR
AND MESOSCALE MODELS. IT LOOKS LIKE SKIES MAY CLEAR BEHIND THE
WAVE...THOUGH A COUPLE MODELS ARE TRYING TO DEVELOP SOME LOW STRATUS
LATER IN THE NIGHT. KEPT SOME CLOUD COVER BECAUSE OF THE
UNCERTAINTY.

COULD SEE A FEW MORE SHOWERS BRUSH THE EAST MONDAY AFTERNOON AS
ANOTHER WEAK WAVE DROPS THROUGH THE AREA. SHOULD SEE SKIES BECOME
MOSTLY CLOUDY BY MID OR LATE MORNING...WITH THE CLOUDS PERSISTING
THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAYTIME HOURS. STILL LOOKS LIKE HIGHS RIGHT
AROUND NORMAL TOMORROW.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

A LARGE POLAR TROUGH WILL BECOME CUT OFF OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE MOVES
FROM THE GREAT PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY. A NNELY FLOW
WILL PREVAIL OVER SRN WI FROM MON NT INTO TUE AND STRATUS IS
EXPECTED TO LINGER ESPECIALLY OVER ERN WI. A NELY FLOW FROM LAKE
MI AND LAKE TO 850 MB TEMP DIFFERENCES OF 11-13C WILL CONTRIBUTE
TO THE STRATUS LINGERING AT LEAST THROUGH TUE AM OVER FAR ERN WI.

A MERIDIONAL SFC HIGH AND UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN SETTLE OVER THE
WRN GREAT LAKES FOR TUE NT THROUGH WED NT. FAIR WX WILL PREVAIL.
HIGH TEMPS WILL BE COOL ON TUE BUT WARMING INTO WED.


.LONG TERM...

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN DUE TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
INTO THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY ON THU. A SFC TROUGH ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER WAVE WILL DISSIPATE NEAR THE MS RIVER. SLIGHT
CHANCES OF SHOWERS ARE FORECAST OVER THE FAR WRN CWA DUE TO THESE
FEATURES. A WSWLY FLOW WILL THEN BRING MILD TEMPS FOR FRI AND THE
WEEKEND. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A COLD FRONT
ON SAT BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE WEAK IF IT DOES OCCUR.


&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. SOME
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING SOME LOWER STRATUS TONIGHT...BUT LOOKS LIKE
PRETTY GOOD CLEARING BEHIND THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. SKIES WILL
TURN MOSTLY CLOUDY MONDAY...WITH CIGS POSSIBLY APPROACHING MVFR.

COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS IN THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING
AND THEN AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT OTHERWISE IT LOOKS PRETTY
QUIET THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...

KEPT THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS IS FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY TONIGHT. BEST CHANCE FOR GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS WILL BE TOWARD OPEN
WATERS.


&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM CDT MONDAY FOR LMZ644>646.

&&

$$

TONIGHT/MONDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...DDV
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...GEHRING





000
FXUS63 KMKX 191525 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1025 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...

NOT SEEING MUCH ON RADAR UPSTREAM WITH THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE.
STILL LOOKS LIKE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE
NORTHEAST FORECAST LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT A GOOD AMOUNT OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...WITH HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.
COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS IN THE NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...BUT OTHERWISE IT LOOKS PRETTY QUIET
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL DROP SE OUT OF THE PRAIRIE PROVINCES OF
CANADA TODAY AND ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT....PUSHING
A TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE STATE TONIGHT.

WARM AIR ADVECTION ON SW WINDS AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE...CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN MANITOBA...THAT REACHES
WESTERN ONTARIO BY 00Z AND SAULT STE MARIE BY 12Z MONDAY.

925 MB TEMPS JUMP 4C TO 5C BETWEEN 12Z AND 00Z. WARMEST 925 MB
READINGS IN THE LATE EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT AS THE THERMAL RIDGE
CROSSES THE REGION...THEN TEMPS COOL 2-3C BY 12Z MONDAY WITH WEAK
COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL
BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...BUT STILL A BIT BELOW
NORMAL. CLOUDS AND THE LATE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL HOLD
LOWS IN THE 40S.

SOME ISENTROPIC ADIABATIC OMEGA ON 295K SURFACE DEVELOPING IN THE
EAST WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS REMAIN 100 MB OR HIGHER WITH BEST
LOWER-LAYER WARM-AIR ADVECTION DRIVEN Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE STAYING
NORTH.

A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE TONIGHT WITH STRONGER HIGHER LAYER
Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE MOVES ACROSS THE CWA WITH VORTICITY
ADVECTION AHEAD OF MAIN VORT MAX. STILL LOOKS AS THOUGH SMALL
CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED TO THE FAR NORTHEAST.

SHORT TERM...MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS MEDIUM.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING 500 MB SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY. AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ARE SHOWING SOME VERY WEAK MEAN LAYER CAPE IN THE LOW
LEVELS...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE BEST COMBINATION OF
THIS AND 850 MB TO 700 MB MOISTURE IS TOWARD THE SHEBOYGAN
AREA...MORE SO ON NAM THAN GFS SOUNDINGS. ECMWF IS ONLY SYNOPTIC
MODEL PRODUCING ANY QPF MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING.

FOR NOW...WILL LEAVE LOW POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS IN THE FAR
NORTHEAST COUNTIES MONDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. COULD
SEE REMOVING POPS IN LATER FORECASTS IF 850 MB TO 700 MB MOISTURE
DECREASES. COLD AIR ADVECTION AND CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP HIGHS IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY
TOWARD LAKE MICHIGAN. IN ADDITION...ONSHORE LOW LEVEL WINDS DURING
THIS TIME MAY BRING LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS TO THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES.

MODELS KEEPING MAIN AREA OF LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS JUST EAST OF THE
AREA...IN A NORTH TO SOUTH BAND AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN SHORE OF
LAKE MICHIGAN. KEPT FORECAST DRY OVER THE AREA...BUT KEPT CLOUDS
LINGERING IN THE FAR EAST. 925 MB TEMPERATURE FIELDS SUGGEST NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME.

HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS MORE QUIET WEATHER TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
DELTA T VALUES LESS FAVORABLE FOR LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS IN THE FAR
EAST.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

GFS/ECMWF SHOWING 500 MB RIDGE AXIS OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WEAKENING...WITH A 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING EAST INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE IN
THE LOW TO MID LEVELS WITH THIS FEATURE IS MODEST AT BEST IN THE
WESTERN COUNTIES DURING THIS TIME. THEY DO SHOW THE QPF FALLING
APART THURSDAY NIGHT AS IT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE POPS THURSDAY IN THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA. MAY HAVE TO REDUCE POPS IN LATER FORECASTS IF THIS TREND
CONTINUES. TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS DURING THIS
TIME.

DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO REMAIN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...WITH SOME
WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURRING OVER THE REGION. THIS COULD LEAD TO A
WARMING TREND WITH MILD TEMPERATURES.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA TODAY BUT REMAIN AT
VFR LEVELS. THE CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH WARMER AIR MOVING INTO
THE REGION AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL MOVE FROM SOUTHERN
CANADA TO NEAR SAULT STE MARIE BY 12Z MONDAY. GUSTY SW WINDS TODAY WILL
TURN WEST AND EASE LATE TONIGHT...THEN BECOME NORTHWEST BEHIND A
TRAILING COLD FRONT THAT CLEARS KENW BY 12Z MONDAY. A BAND OF
LOWER VFR CLOUDS AROUND 5K FT WILL MOVE THROUGH WITH THE FRONT
WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN EASTERN WI...BUT CHANCES ARE TOO
SMALL TO MENTION FOR THE EASTERN TAF SITES.

MARINE...

ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM LATE AFTERNOON UNTIL THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVING FROM SOUTHERN CANADA TO NEAR SAULT STE MARIE BY 12Z MONDAY.
THE WINDS WILL LOWER AFTER 06Z IN THE SLACKENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT AS A TRAILING SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA. WAVES WILL BUILD TO THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE...WITH THE HIGHER
WAVES TOWARD OPEN WATER WITH THE OFFSHORE FETCH.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM CDT MONDAY
     FOR LMZ644>646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DDV
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...REM
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WOOD




000
FXUS63 KMKX 191525 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1025 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...

NOT SEEING MUCH ON RADAR UPSTREAM WITH THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE.
STILL LOOKS LIKE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE
NORTHEAST FORECAST LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT A GOOD AMOUNT OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...WITH HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.
COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS IN THE NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...BUT OTHERWISE IT LOOKS PRETTY QUIET
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL DROP SE OUT OF THE PRAIRIE PROVINCES OF
CANADA TODAY AND ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT....PUSHING
A TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE STATE TONIGHT.

WARM AIR ADVECTION ON SW WINDS AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE...CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN MANITOBA...THAT REACHES
WESTERN ONTARIO BY 00Z AND SAULT STE MARIE BY 12Z MONDAY.

925 MB TEMPS JUMP 4C TO 5C BETWEEN 12Z AND 00Z. WARMEST 925 MB
READINGS IN THE LATE EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT AS THE THERMAL RIDGE
CROSSES THE REGION...THEN TEMPS COOL 2-3C BY 12Z MONDAY WITH WEAK
COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL
BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...BUT STILL A BIT BELOW
NORMAL. CLOUDS AND THE LATE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL HOLD
LOWS IN THE 40S.

SOME ISENTROPIC ADIABATIC OMEGA ON 295K SURFACE DEVELOPING IN THE
EAST WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS REMAIN 100 MB OR HIGHER WITH BEST
LOWER-LAYER WARM-AIR ADVECTION DRIVEN Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE STAYING
NORTH.

A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE TONIGHT WITH STRONGER HIGHER LAYER
Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE MOVES ACROSS THE CWA WITH VORTICITY
ADVECTION AHEAD OF MAIN VORT MAX. STILL LOOKS AS THOUGH SMALL
CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED TO THE FAR NORTHEAST.

SHORT TERM...MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS MEDIUM.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING 500 MB SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY. AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ARE SHOWING SOME VERY WEAK MEAN LAYER CAPE IN THE LOW
LEVELS...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE BEST COMBINATION OF
THIS AND 850 MB TO 700 MB MOISTURE IS TOWARD THE SHEBOYGAN
AREA...MORE SO ON NAM THAN GFS SOUNDINGS. ECMWF IS ONLY SYNOPTIC
MODEL PRODUCING ANY QPF MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING.

FOR NOW...WILL LEAVE LOW POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS IN THE FAR
NORTHEAST COUNTIES MONDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. COULD
SEE REMOVING POPS IN LATER FORECASTS IF 850 MB TO 700 MB MOISTURE
DECREASES. COLD AIR ADVECTION AND CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP HIGHS IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY
TOWARD LAKE MICHIGAN. IN ADDITION...ONSHORE LOW LEVEL WINDS DURING
THIS TIME MAY BRING LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS TO THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES.

MODELS KEEPING MAIN AREA OF LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS JUST EAST OF THE
AREA...IN A NORTH TO SOUTH BAND AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN SHORE OF
LAKE MICHIGAN. KEPT FORECAST DRY OVER THE AREA...BUT KEPT CLOUDS
LINGERING IN THE FAR EAST. 925 MB TEMPERATURE FIELDS SUGGEST NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME.

HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS MORE QUIET WEATHER TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
DELTA T VALUES LESS FAVORABLE FOR LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS IN THE FAR
EAST.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

GFS/ECMWF SHOWING 500 MB RIDGE AXIS OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WEAKENING...WITH A 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING EAST INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE IN
THE LOW TO MID LEVELS WITH THIS FEATURE IS MODEST AT BEST IN THE
WESTERN COUNTIES DURING THIS TIME. THEY DO SHOW THE QPF FALLING
APART THURSDAY NIGHT AS IT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE POPS THURSDAY IN THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA. MAY HAVE TO REDUCE POPS IN LATER FORECASTS IF THIS TREND
CONTINUES. TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS DURING THIS
TIME.

DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO REMAIN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...WITH SOME
WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURRING OVER THE REGION. THIS COULD LEAD TO A
WARMING TREND WITH MILD TEMPERATURES.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA TODAY BUT REMAIN AT
VFR LEVELS. THE CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH WARMER AIR MOVING INTO
THE REGION AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL MOVE FROM SOUTHERN
CANADA TO NEAR SAULT STE MARIE BY 12Z MONDAY. GUSTY SW WINDS TODAY WILL
TURN WEST AND EASE LATE TONIGHT...THEN BECOME NORTHWEST BEHIND A
TRAILING COLD FRONT THAT CLEARS KENW BY 12Z MONDAY. A BAND OF
LOWER VFR CLOUDS AROUND 5K FT WILL MOVE THROUGH WITH THE FRONT
WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN EASTERN WI...BUT CHANCES ARE TOO
SMALL TO MENTION FOR THE EASTERN TAF SITES.

MARINE...

ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM LATE AFTERNOON UNTIL THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVING FROM SOUTHERN CANADA TO NEAR SAULT STE MARIE BY 12Z MONDAY.
THE WINDS WILL LOWER AFTER 06Z IN THE SLACKENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT AS A TRAILING SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA. WAVES WILL BUILD TO THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE...WITH THE HIGHER
WAVES TOWARD OPEN WATER WITH THE OFFSHORE FETCH.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM CDT MONDAY
     FOR LMZ644>646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DDV
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...REM
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WOOD





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