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000
FXUS63 KMKX 071457 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
957 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.UPDATE...

DAYTIME MIXING SHOULD CONTINUE TO HELP IMPROVE LOWER
VISIBILITIES DUE TO THE SMOKE LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. SKIES HAVE CLEARED OUT IN THE EAST...WITH DECREASING
CLOUDS WEST INTO THE AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM. FORECAST TEMPS SEEM TO BE ON TRACK...WITH WELL
BELOW NORMAL HIGHS EXPECTED TODAY.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

LOWER VSBYS DUE TO SMOKE ALONG WITH LOWER CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO
VFR BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON AS DAYTIME MIXING
INCREASES.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TONIGHT...BRINGING QUIET
CONDITIONS TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

.BEACHES...

A BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT CONTINUES THROUGH 00Z TONIGHT FOR THE
BEACHES OF OZAUKEE...MILWAUKEE...RACINE AND KENOSHA COUNTIES DUE
TO 3 TO 5 FOOT WAVES PRODUCING DANGEROUS CURRENTS ALONG THE SHORE
AND ESPECIALLY NEAR PIERS AND BREAKWATERS. BEACH WINDS WILL BE
BETWEEN 10 AND 20 MILES PER HOUR FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST
DIRECTIONS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015/

SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH

CURRENT TIMING HAVE ANY SCATTERED SHOWERS EXITING THE FAR SOUTHEAST
BY 10Z...WITH THE HI-RES/RAPID UPDATE MODELS SUPPORTING MOST OF THE
MAIN OPERATIONAL MODELS IN TAKING THE SHOWERS OUT OF THE FAR SE NO
LATER THAN 12Z. NAM KEEPS SOME QPF IN THE SE THROUGH 18Z WITH MUCH
STRONGER 700-500MB FRONTOGENESIS AND MID-UPPER LAYER Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE LINGERING OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF WEAK VORT LOBE. HOWEVER
700 MB OMEGA AND MOISTURE PUSH OUT OF THE FAR SOUTHEAST AROUND 12Z.

NWS AIR QUALITY GUIDANCE INDICATES SMOKE FROM CANADIAN FIRES THAT
HAS MIXED DOWN IN THE POST-FRONTAL SUBSIDENCE WILL CAUSE SOME VSBY
REDUCTION THROUGH AT LEAST MID-MORNING. SOME PATCHY SMOKE POSSIBLE
BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR TONIGHT...WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS ALLOWING COOL LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...WITH SOME
PATCHY FOG FORMING ESPECIALLY NW SECTIONS OF S CENTRAL WI.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN A STRONG HOLD OVER SOUTHERN WI
WED AND THU. A LAKE BREEZE IS EXPECTED EACH DAY SO HIGHS WILL BE A
BIT COOLER NEAR THE LAKE. PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE RIDING THROUGH THE MIDWEST SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
WI/IL BORDER WED NIGHT SO REDUCED POPS. SOME RESIDUAL CLOUDS ARE
POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN WI DURING THE DAY THU... SO TEMPS WILL CONTINUE
TO RUN A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

LONG TERM...

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL SET UP OVER THE WESTERN COASTAL REGION WHILE
A RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW TO PUSH THE 850MB BAROCLINIC ZONE
INTO THE SOUTHERN WI AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. THERE ARE STILL
DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE ECMWF... GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS ABOUT
WHETHER OR NOT THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL PUSH INTO NORTHERN WI OR
REMAIN OVER NORTHERN IL. THE ECMWF IS THE MODEL REMAINING THE
FARTHEST SOUTH. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHERN WI
WILL BE FRI AFTERNOON/NIGHT WHEN THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET
POINTS RIGHT INTO THE AREA.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW.

THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY FOR PRECIP CHANCES AND
TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF IS COOLER AND WETTER
THAN THE GFS DUE TO DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/RIDGE
LOCATIONS.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...MVFR CIGS MAKING SLOW BUT STEADY PROGRESS TO
THE SOUTHEAST AND ARE EXPECTED TO EXIT THE SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 16Z
AND 17Z. VSBY REDUCTIONS MAINLY DUE TO SMOKE FROM CANADIAN
WILDFIRES THAT WAS BROUGHT DOWN TO THE SURFACE IN SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND DEPARTING TROUGH/COLD FRONT. VSBYS SHOULD ALSO IMPROVE WITH
DAYTIME MIXING LIFTING THE SMOKE LAYER.

GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE FAR EASTERN FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL EASE AS HIGH BUILDS
INTO THE AREA. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS MAY PRODUCE PATCHY FOG
TONIGHT...BUT TOO LOW A PROBABILITY TO ADD AT ANY TAF SITE.

MARINE...TIGHT GRADIENT IS PRODUCING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO MID MORNING N OF PT
WASHINGTON AND INTO THE AFTERNOON TO THE SOUTH. THE LONG FETCH
WILL BUILD HIGH WAVES THAT WILL LINGER INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON IN
THE SOUTHERN ZONES. HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL
ZONES...ENDING AT 15Z WHERE WINDS AND WAVES WILL FALL BELOW
CRITERIA NORTH OF PORT WASHINGTON...AND UNTIL 00Z FOR THE
REMAINING ZONES.

BEACHES...WILL BE ISSUING A BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT BEGINNING AT
13Z THROUGH 00Z FOR THE BEACHES OF OZAUKEE...MILWAUKEE...RACINE AND
KENOSHA COUNTIES DUE TO 3 TO 5 FOOT WAVES PRODUCING DANGEROUS
CURRENTS ALONG THE SHORE AND ESPECIALLY NEAR PIERS AND BREAKWATERS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ060-
     066-071-072.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ644>646.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR LMZ643.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DDV/JTS
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...REM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MRC





000
FXUS63 KMKX 071457 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
957 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.UPDATE...

DAYTIME MIXING SHOULD CONTINUE TO HELP IMPROVE LOWER
VISIBILITIES DUE TO THE SMOKE LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. SKIES HAVE CLEARED OUT IN THE EAST...WITH DECREASING
CLOUDS WEST INTO THE AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM. FORECAST TEMPS SEEM TO BE ON TRACK...WITH WELL
BELOW NORMAL HIGHS EXPECTED TODAY.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

LOWER VSBYS DUE TO SMOKE ALONG WITH LOWER CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO
VFR BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON AS DAYTIME MIXING
INCREASES.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TONIGHT...BRINGING QUIET
CONDITIONS TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

.BEACHES...

A BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT CONTINUES THROUGH 00Z TONIGHT FOR THE
BEACHES OF OZAUKEE...MILWAUKEE...RACINE AND KENOSHA COUNTIES DUE
TO 3 TO 5 FOOT WAVES PRODUCING DANGEROUS CURRENTS ALONG THE SHORE
AND ESPECIALLY NEAR PIERS AND BREAKWATERS. BEACH WINDS WILL BE
BETWEEN 10 AND 20 MILES PER HOUR FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST
DIRECTIONS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015/

SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH

CURRENT TIMING HAVE ANY SCATTERED SHOWERS EXITING THE FAR SOUTHEAST
BY 10Z...WITH THE HI-RES/RAPID UPDATE MODELS SUPPORTING MOST OF THE
MAIN OPERATIONAL MODELS IN TAKING THE SHOWERS OUT OF THE FAR SE NO
LATER THAN 12Z. NAM KEEPS SOME QPF IN THE SE THROUGH 18Z WITH MUCH
STRONGER 700-500MB FRONTOGENESIS AND MID-UPPER LAYER Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE LINGERING OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF WEAK VORT LOBE. HOWEVER
700 MB OMEGA AND MOISTURE PUSH OUT OF THE FAR SOUTHEAST AROUND 12Z.

NWS AIR QUALITY GUIDANCE INDICATES SMOKE FROM CANADIAN FIRES THAT
HAS MIXED DOWN IN THE POST-FRONTAL SUBSIDENCE WILL CAUSE SOME VSBY
REDUCTION THROUGH AT LEAST MID-MORNING. SOME PATCHY SMOKE POSSIBLE
BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR TONIGHT...WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS ALLOWING COOL LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...WITH SOME
PATCHY FOG FORMING ESPECIALLY NW SECTIONS OF S CENTRAL WI.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN A STRONG HOLD OVER SOUTHERN WI
WED AND THU. A LAKE BREEZE IS EXPECTED EACH DAY SO HIGHS WILL BE A
BIT COOLER NEAR THE LAKE. PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE RIDING THROUGH THE MIDWEST SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
WI/IL BORDER WED NIGHT SO REDUCED POPS. SOME RESIDUAL CLOUDS ARE
POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN WI DURING THE DAY THU... SO TEMPS WILL CONTINUE
TO RUN A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

LONG TERM...

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL SET UP OVER THE WESTERN COASTAL REGION WHILE
A RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW TO PUSH THE 850MB BAROCLINIC ZONE
INTO THE SOUTHERN WI AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. THERE ARE STILL
DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE ECMWF... GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS ABOUT
WHETHER OR NOT THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL PUSH INTO NORTHERN WI OR
REMAIN OVER NORTHERN IL. THE ECMWF IS THE MODEL REMAINING THE
FARTHEST SOUTH. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHERN WI
WILL BE FRI AFTERNOON/NIGHT WHEN THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET
POINTS RIGHT INTO THE AREA.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW.

THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY FOR PRECIP CHANCES AND
TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF IS COOLER AND WETTER
THAN THE GFS DUE TO DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/RIDGE
LOCATIONS.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...MVFR CIGS MAKING SLOW BUT STEADY PROGRESS TO
THE SOUTHEAST AND ARE EXPECTED TO EXIT THE SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 16Z
AND 17Z. VSBY REDUCTIONS MAINLY DUE TO SMOKE FROM CANADIAN
WILDFIRES THAT WAS BROUGHT DOWN TO THE SURFACE IN SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND DEPARTING TROUGH/COLD FRONT. VSBYS SHOULD ALSO IMPROVE WITH
DAYTIME MIXING LIFTING THE SMOKE LAYER.

GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE FAR EASTERN FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL EASE AS HIGH BUILDS
INTO THE AREA. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS MAY PRODUCE PATCHY FOG
TONIGHT...BUT TOO LOW A PROBABILITY TO ADD AT ANY TAF SITE.

MARINE...TIGHT GRADIENT IS PRODUCING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO MID MORNING N OF PT
WASHINGTON AND INTO THE AFTERNOON TO THE SOUTH. THE LONG FETCH
WILL BUILD HIGH WAVES THAT WILL LINGER INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON IN
THE SOUTHERN ZONES. HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL
ZONES...ENDING AT 15Z WHERE WINDS AND WAVES WILL FALL BELOW
CRITERIA NORTH OF PORT WASHINGTON...AND UNTIL 00Z FOR THE
REMAINING ZONES.

BEACHES...WILL BE ISSUING A BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT BEGINNING AT
13Z THROUGH 00Z FOR THE BEACHES OF OZAUKEE...MILWAUKEE...RACINE AND
KENOSHA COUNTIES DUE TO 3 TO 5 FOOT WAVES PRODUCING DANGEROUS
CURRENTS ALONG THE SHORE AND ESPECIALLY NEAR PIERS AND BREAKWATERS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ060-
     066-071-072.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ644>646.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR LMZ643.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DDV/JTS
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...REM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MRC




000
FXUS63 KMKX 071136 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
636 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH

CURRENT TIMING HAVE ANY SCATTERED SHOWERS EXITING THE FAR SOUTHEAST
BY 10Z...WITH THE HI-RES/RAPID UPDATE MODELS SUPPORTING MOST OF THE
MAIN OPERATIONAL MODELS IN TAKING THE SHOWERS OUT OF THE FAR SE NO
LATER THAN 12Z. NAM KEEPS SOME QPF IN THE SE THROUGH 18Z WITH MUCH
STRONGER 700-500MB FRONTOGENESIS AND MID-UPPER LAYER Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE LINGERING OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF WEAK VORT LOBE. HOWEVER
700 MB OMEGA AND MOISTURE PUSH OUT OF THE FAR SOUTHEAST AROUND 12Z.

NWS AIR QUALITY GUIDANCE INDICATES SMOKE FROM CANADIAN FIRES THAT
HAS MIXED DOWN IN THE POST-FRONTAL SUBSIDENCE WILL CAUSE SOME VSBY
REDUCTION THROUGH AT LEAST MID-MORNING. SOME PATCHY SMOKE POSSIBLE
BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR TONIGHT...WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS ALLOWING COOL LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...WITH SOME
PATCHY FOG FORMING ESPECIALLY NW SECTIONS OF S CENTRAL WI.

.WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN A STRONG HOLD OVER SOUTHERN WI
WED AND THU. A LAKE BREEZE IS EXPECTED EACH DAY SO HIGHS WILL BE A
BIT COOLER NEAR THE LAKE. PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE RIDING THROUGH THE MIDWEST SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
WI/IL BORDER WED NIGHT SO REDUCED POPS. SOME RESIDUAL CLOUDS ARE
POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN WI DURING THE DAY THU... SO TEMPS WILL CONTINUE
TO RUN A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.LONG TERM...

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL SET UP OVER THE WESTERN COASTAL REGION WHILE
A RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW TO PUSH THE 850MB BAROCLINIC ZONE
INTO THE SOUTHERN WI AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. THERE ARE STILL
DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE ECMWF... GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS ABOUT
WHETHER OR NOT THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL PUSH INTO NORTHERN WI OR
REMAIN OVER NORTHERN IL. THE ECMWF IS THE MODEL REMAINING THE
FARTHEST SOUTH. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHERN WI
WILL BE FRI AFTERNOON/NIGHT WHEN THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET
POINTS RIGHT INTO THE AREA.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW.

THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY FOR PRECIP CHANCES AND
TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF IS COOLER AND WETTER
THAN THE GFS DUE TO DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/RIDGE
LOCATIONS.

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...MVFR CIGS MAKING SLOW BUT STEADY PROGRESS TO
THE SOUTHEAST AND ARE EXPECTED TO EXIT THE SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 16Z
AND 17Z. VSBY REDUCTIONS MAINLY DUE TO SMOKE FROM CANADIAN
WILDFIRES THAT WAS BROUGHT DOWN TO THE SURFACE IN SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND DEPARTING TROUGH/COLD FRONT. VSBYS SHOULD ALSO IMPROVE WITH
DAYTIME MIXING LIFTING THE SMOKE LAYER.

GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE FAR EASTERN FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL EASE AS HIGH BUILDS
INTO THE AREA. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS MAY PRODUCE PATCHY FOG
TONIGHT...BUT TOO LOW A PROBABILITY TO ADD AT ANY TAF SITE.

.MARINE...TIGHT GRADIENT IS PRODUCING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO MID MORNING N OF PT
WASHINGTON AND INTO THE AFTERNOON TO THE SOUTH. THE LONG FETCH
WILL BUILD HIGH WAVES THAT WILL LINGER INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON IN
THE SOUTHERN ZONES. HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL
ZONES...ENDING AT 15Z WHERE WINDS AND WAVES WILL FALL BELOW
CRITERIA NORTH OF PORT WASHINGTON...AND UNTIL 00Z FOR THE
REMAINING ZONES.

.BEACHES...WILL BE ISSUING A BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT BEGINNING AT
13Z THROUGH 00Z FOR THE BEACHES OF OZAUKEE...MILWAUKEE...RACINE AND
KENOSHA COUNTIES DUE TO 3 TO 5 FOOT WAVES PRODUCING DANGEROUS
CURRENTS ALONG THE SHORE AND ESPECIALLY NEAR PIERS AND BREAKWATERS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR WIZ060-066-071-
     072.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ644>646.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR LMZ643.

&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...REM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MRC





000
FXUS63 KMKX 071136 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
636 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH

CURRENT TIMING HAVE ANY SCATTERED SHOWERS EXITING THE FAR SOUTHEAST
BY 10Z...WITH THE HI-RES/RAPID UPDATE MODELS SUPPORTING MOST OF THE
MAIN OPERATIONAL MODELS IN TAKING THE SHOWERS OUT OF THE FAR SE NO
LATER THAN 12Z. NAM KEEPS SOME QPF IN THE SE THROUGH 18Z WITH MUCH
STRONGER 700-500MB FRONTOGENESIS AND MID-UPPER LAYER Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE LINGERING OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF WEAK VORT LOBE. HOWEVER
700 MB OMEGA AND MOISTURE PUSH OUT OF THE FAR SOUTHEAST AROUND 12Z.

NWS AIR QUALITY GUIDANCE INDICATES SMOKE FROM CANADIAN FIRES THAT
HAS MIXED DOWN IN THE POST-FRONTAL SUBSIDENCE WILL CAUSE SOME VSBY
REDUCTION THROUGH AT LEAST MID-MORNING. SOME PATCHY SMOKE POSSIBLE
BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR TONIGHT...WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS ALLOWING COOL LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...WITH SOME
PATCHY FOG FORMING ESPECIALLY NW SECTIONS OF S CENTRAL WI.

.WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN A STRONG HOLD OVER SOUTHERN WI
WED AND THU. A LAKE BREEZE IS EXPECTED EACH DAY SO HIGHS WILL BE A
BIT COOLER NEAR THE LAKE. PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE RIDING THROUGH THE MIDWEST SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
WI/IL BORDER WED NIGHT SO REDUCED POPS. SOME RESIDUAL CLOUDS ARE
POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN WI DURING THE DAY THU... SO TEMPS WILL CONTINUE
TO RUN A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.LONG TERM...

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL SET UP OVER THE WESTERN COASTAL REGION WHILE
A RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW TO PUSH THE 850MB BAROCLINIC ZONE
INTO THE SOUTHERN WI AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. THERE ARE STILL
DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE ECMWF... GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS ABOUT
WHETHER OR NOT THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL PUSH INTO NORTHERN WI OR
REMAIN OVER NORTHERN IL. THE ECMWF IS THE MODEL REMAINING THE
FARTHEST SOUTH. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHERN WI
WILL BE FRI AFTERNOON/NIGHT WHEN THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET
POINTS RIGHT INTO THE AREA.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW.

THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY FOR PRECIP CHANCES AND
TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF IS COOLER AND WETTER
THAN THE GFS DUE TO DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/RIDGE
LOCATIONS.

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...MVFR CIGS MAKING SLOW BUT STEADY PROGRESS TO
THE SOUTHEAST AND ARE EXPECTED TO EXIT THE SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 16Z
AND 17Z. VSBY REDUCTIONS MAINLY DUE TO SMOKE FROM CANADIAN
WILDFIRES THAT WAS BROUGHT DOWN TO THE SURFACE IN SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND DEPARTING TROUGH/COLD FRONT. VSBYS SHOULD ALSO IMPROVE WITH
DAYTIME MIXING LIFTING THE SMOKE LAYER.

GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE FAR EASTERN FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL EASE AS HIGH BUILDS
INTO THE AREA. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS MAY PRODUCE PATCHY FOG
TONIGHT...BUT TOO LOW A PROBABILITY TO ADD AT ANY TAF SITE.

.MARINE...TIGHT GRADIENT IS PRODUCING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO MID MORNING N OF PT
WASHINGTON AND INTO THE AFTERNOON TO THE SOUTH. THE LONG FETCH
WILL BUILD HIGH WAVES THAT WILL LINGER INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON IN
THE SOUTHERN ZONES. HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL
ZONES...ENDING AT 15Z WHERE WINDS AND WAVES WILL FALL BELOW
CRITERIA NORTH OF PORT WASHINGTON...AND UNTIL 00Z FOR THE
REMAINING ZONES.

.BEACHES...WILL BE ISSUING A BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT BEGINNING AT
13Z THROUGH 00Z FOR THE BEACHES OF OZAUKEE...MILWAUKEE...RACINE AND
KENOSHA COUNTIES DUE TO 3 TO 5 FOOT WAVES PRODUCING DANGEROUS
CURRENTS ALONG THE SHORE AND ESPECIALLY NEAR PIERS AND BREAKWATERS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR WIZ060-066-071-
     072.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ644>646.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR LMZ643.

&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...REM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MRC




000
FXUS63 KMKX 071136 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
636 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH

CURRENT TIMING HAVE ANY SCATTERED SHOWERS EXITING THE FAR SOUTHEAST
BY 10Z...WITH THE HI-RES/RAPID UPDATE MODELS SUPPORTING MOST OF THE
MAIN OPERATIONAL MODELS IN TAKING THE SHOWERS OUT OF THE FAR SE NO
LATER THAN 12Z. NAM KEEPS SOME QPF IN THE SE THROUGH 18Z WITH MUCH
STRONGER 700-500MB FRONTOGENESIS AND MID-UPPER LAYER Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE LINGERING OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF WEAK VORT LOBE. HOWEVER
700 MB OMEGA AND MOISTURE PUSH OUT OF THE FAR SOUTHEAST AROUND 12Z.

NWS AIR QUALITY GUIDANCE INDICATES SMOKE FROM CANADIAN FIRES THAT
HAS MIXED DOWN IN THE POST-FRONTAL SUBSIDENCE WILL CAUSE SOME VSBY
REDUCTION THROUGH AT LEAST MID-MORNING. SOME PATCHY SMOKE POSSIBLE
BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR TONIGHT...WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS ALLOWING COOL LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...WITH SOME
PATCHY FOG FORMING ESPECIALLY NW SECTIONS OF S CENTRAL WI.

.WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN A STRONG HOLD OVER SOUTHERN WI
WED AND THU. A LAKE BREEZE IS EXPECTED EACH DAY SO HIGHS WILL BE A
BIT COOLER NEAR THE LAKE. PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE RIDING THROUGH THE MIDWEST SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
WI/IL BORDER WED NIGHT SO REDUCED POPS. SOME RESIDUAL CLOUDS ARE
POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN WI DURING THE DAY THU... SO TEMPS WILL CONTINUE
TO RUN A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.LONG TERM...

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL SET UP OVER THE WESTERN COASTAL REGION WHILE
A RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW TO PUSH THE 850MB BAROCLINIC ZONE
INTO THE SOUTHERN WI AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. THERE ARE STILL
DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE ECMWF... GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS ABOUT
WHETHER OR NOT THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL PUSH INTO NORTHERN WI OR
REMAIN OVER NORTHERN IL. THE ECMWF IS THE MODEL REMAINING THE
FARTHEST SOUTH. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHERN WI
WILL BE FRI AFTERNOON/NIGHT WHEN THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET
POINTS RIGHT INTO THE AREA.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW.

THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY FOR PRECIP CHANCES AND
TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF IS COOLER AND WETTER
THAN THE GFS DUE TO DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/RIDGE
LOCATIONS.

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...MVFR CIGS MAKING SLOW BUT STEADY PROGRESS TO
THE SOUTHEAST AND ARE EXPECTED TO EXIT THE SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 16Z
AND 17Z. VSBY REDUCTIONS MAINLY DUE TO SMOKE FROM CANADIAN
WILDFIRES THAT WAS BROUGHT DOWN TO THE SURFACE IN SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND DEPARTING TROUGH/COLD FRONT. VSBYS SHOULD ALSO IMPROVE WITH
DAYTIME MIXING LIFTING THE SMOKE LAYER.

GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE FAR EASTERN FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL EASE AS HIGH BUILDS
INTO THE AREA. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS MAY PRODUCE PATCHY FOG
TONIGHT...BUT TOO LOW A PROBABILITY TO ADD AT ANY TAF SITE.

.MARINE...TIGHT GRADIENT IS PRODUCING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO MID MORNING N OF PT
WASHINGTON AND INTO THE AFTERNOON TO THE SOUTH. THE LONG FETCH
WILL BUILD HIGH WAVES THAT WILL LINGER INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON IN
THE SOUTHERN ZONES. HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL
ZONES...ENDING AT 15Z WHERE WINDS AND WAVES WILL FALL BELOW
CRITERIA NORTH OF PORT WASHINGTON...AND UNTIL 00Z FOR THE
REMAINING ZONES.

.BEACHES...WILL BE ISSUING A BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT BEGINNING AT
13Z THROUGH 00Z FOR THE BEACHES OF OZAUKEE...MILWAUKEE...RACINE AND
KENOSHA COUNTIES DUE TO 3 TO 5 FOOT WAVES PRODUCING DANGEROUS
CURRENTS ALONG THE SHORE AND ESPECIALLY NEAR PIERS AND BREAKWATERS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR WIZ060-066-071-
     072.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ644>646.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR LMZ643.

&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...REM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MRC





000
FXUS63 KMKX 071136 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
636 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH

CURRENT TIMING HAVE ANY SCATTERED SHOWERS EXITING THE FAR SOUTHEAST
BY 10Z...WITH THE HI-RES/RAPID UPDATE MODELS SUPPORTING MOST OF THE
MAIN OPERATIONAL MODELS IN TAKING THE SHOWERS OUT OF THE FAR SE NO
LATER THAN 12Z. NAM KEEPS SOME QPF IN THE SE THROUGH 18Z WITH MUCH
STRONGER 700-500MB FRONTOGENESIS AND MID-UPPER LAYER Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE LINGERING OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF WEAK VORT LOBE. HOWEVER
700 MB OMEGA AND MOISTURE PUSH OUT OF THE FAR SOUTHEAST AROUND 12Z.

NWS AIR QUALITY GUIDANCE INDICATES SMOKE FROM CANADIAN FIRES THAT
HAS MIXED DOWN IN THE POST-FRONTAL SUBSIDENCE WILL CAUSE SOME VSBY
REDUCTION THROUGH AT LEAST MID-MORNING. SOME PATCHY SMOKE POSSIBLE
BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR TONIGHT...WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS ALLOWING COOL LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...WITH SOME
PATCHY FOG FORMING ESPECIALLY NW SECTIONS OF S CENTRAL WI.

.WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN A STRONG HOLD OVER SOUTHERN WI
WED AND THU. A LAKE BREEZE IS EXPECTED EACH DAY SO HIGHS WILL BE A
BIT COOLER NEAR THE LAKE. PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE RIDING THROUGH THE MIDWEST SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
WI/IL BORDER WED NIGHT SO REDUCED POPS. SOME RESIDUAL CLOUDS ARE
POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN WI DURING THE DAY THU... SO TEMPS WILL CONTINUE
TO RUN A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.LONG TERM...

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL SET UP OVER THE WESTERN COASTAL REGION WHILE
A RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW TO PUSH THE 850MB BAROCLINIC ZONE
INTO THE SOUTHERN WI AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. THERE ARE STILL
DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE ECMWF... GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS ABOUT
WHETHER OR NOT THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL PUSH INTO NORTHERN WI OR
REMAIN OVER NORTHERN IL. THE ECMWF IS THE MODEL REMAINING THE
FARTHEST SOUTH. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHERN WI
WILL BE FRI AFTERNOON/NIGHT WHEN THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET
POINTS RIGHT INTO THE AREA.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW.

THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY FOR PRECIP CHANCES AND
TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF IS COOLER AND WETTER
THAN THE GFS DUE TO DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/RIDGE
LOCATIONS.

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...MVFR CIGS MAKING SLOW BUT STEADY PROGRESS TO
THE SOUTHEAST AND ARE EXPECTED TO EXIT THE SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 16Z
AND 17Z. VSBY REDUCTIONS MAINLY DUE TO SMOKE FROM CANADIAN
WILDFIRES THAT WAS BROUGHT DOWN TO THE SURFACE IN SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND DEPARTING TROUGH/COLD FRONT. VSBYS SHOULD ALSO IMPROVE WITH
DAYTIME MIXING LIFTING THE SMOKE LAYER.

GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE FAR EASTERN FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL EASE AS HIGH BUILDS
INTO THE AREA. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS MAY PRODUCE PATCHY FOG
TONIGHT...BUT TOO LOW A PROBABILITY TO ADD AT ANY TAF SITE.

.MARINE...TIGHT GRADIENT IS PRODUCING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO MID MORNING N OF PT
WASHINGTON AND INTO THE AFTERNOON TO THE SOUTH. THE LONG FETCH
WILL BUILD HIGH WAVES THAT WILL LINGER INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON IN
THE SOUTHERN ZONES. HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL
ZONES...ENDING AT 15Z WHERE WINDS AND WAVES WILL FALL BELOW
CRITERIA NORTH OF PORT WASHINGTON...AND UNTIL 00Z FOR THE
REMAINING ZONES.

.BEACHES...WILL BE ISSUING A BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT BEGINNING AT
13Z THROUGH 00Z FOR THE BEACHES OF OZAUKEE...MILWAUKEE...RACINE AND
KENOSHA COUNTIES DUE TO 3 TO 5 FOOT WAVES PRODUCING DANGEROUS
CURRENTS ALONG THE SHORE AND ESPECIALLY NEAR PIERS AND BREAKWATERS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR WIZ060-066-071-
     072.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ644>646.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR LMZ643.

&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...REM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MRC




000
FXUS63 KMKX 070846
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
346 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH

CURRENT TIMING HAVE ANY SCATTERED SHOWERS EXITING THE FAR SOUTHEAST
BY 10Z...WITH THE HI-RES/RAPID UPDATE MODELS SUPPORTING MOST OF THE
MAIN OPERATIONAL MODELS IN TAKING THE SHOWERS OUT OF THE FAR SE NO
LATER THAN 12Z. NAM KEEPS SOME QPF IN THE SE THROUGH 18Z WITH MUCH
STRONGER 700-500MB FRONTOGENESIS AND MID-UPPER LAYER Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE LINGERING OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF WEAK VORT LOBE. HOWEVER
700 MB OMEGA AND MOISTURE PUSH OUT OF THE FAR SOUTHEAST AROUND 12Z.

NWS AIR QUALITY GUIDANCE INDICATES SMOKE FROM CANADIAN FIRES THAT
HAS MIXED DOWN IN THE POST-FRONTAL SUBSIDENCE WILL CAUSE SOME VSBY
REDUCTION THROUGH AT LEAST MID-MORNING. SOME PATCHY SMOKE POSSIBLE
BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR TONIGHT...WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS ALLOWING COOL LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...WITH SOME
PATCHY FOG FORMING ESPECIALLY NW SECTIONS OF S CENTRAL WI.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN A STRONG HOLD OVER SOUTHERN WI
WED AND THU. A LAKE BREEZE IS EXPECTED EACH DAY SO HIGHS WILL BE A
BIT COOLER NEAR THE LAKE. PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE RIDING THROUGH THE MIDWEST SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
WI/IL BORDER WED NIGHT SO REDUCED POPS. SOME RESIDUAL CLOUDS ARE
POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN WI DURING THE DAY THU... SO TEMPS WILL CONTINUE
TO RUN A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.LONG TERM...

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL SET UP OVER THE WESTERN COASTAL REGION WHILE
A RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW TO PUSH THE 850MB BAROCLINIC ZONE
INTO THE SOUTHERN WI AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. THERE ARE STILL
DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE ECMWF... GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS ABOUT
WHETHER OR NOT THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL PUSH INTO NORTHERN WI OR
REMAIN OVER NORTHERN IL. THE ECMWF IS THE MODEL REMAINING THE
FARTHEST SOUTH. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHERN WI
WILL BE FRI AFTERNOON/NIGHT WHEN THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET
POINTS RIGHT INTO THE AREA.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW.

THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY FOR PRECIP CHANCES AND
TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF IS COOLER AND WETTER
THAN THE GFS DUE TO DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/RIDGE
LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...COMING SOON.

&&

.MARINE...TIGHT GRADIENT IS PRODUCING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NORTHERLY
WIND GUSTS THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO MID MORNING N OF PT WASHINGTON
AND INTO THE AFTERNOON TO THE SOUTH. THE LONG FETCH WILL BUILD HIGH
WAVES THAT WILL LINGER INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHERN
ZONES. HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL ZONES...ENDING AT
15Z WHERE WINDS AND WAVES WILL FALL BELOW CRITERIA NORTH OF PORT
WASHINGTON...AND UNTIL 00Z FOR THE REMAINING ZONES.

&&

.BEACHES...WILL BE ISSUING A BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT BEGINNING AT
13Z THROUGH 00Z FOR THE BEACHES OF OZAUKEE...MILWAUKEE...RACINE AND
KENOSHA COUNTIES DUE TO 3 TO 5 FOOT WAVES PRODUCING DANGEROUS
CURRENTS ALONG THE SHORE AND ESPECIALLY NEAR PIERS AND BREAKWATERS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR WIZ060-066-071-072.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ644>646.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR LMZ643.

&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...REM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MRC




000
FXUS63 KMKX 070846
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
346 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH

CURRENT TIMING HAVE ANY SCATTERED SHOWERS EXITING THE FAR SOUTHEAST
BY 10Z...WITH THE HI-RES/RAPID UPDATE MODELS SUPPORTING MOST OF THE
MAIN OPERATIONAL MODELS IN TAKING THE SHOWERS OUT OF THE FAR SE NO
LATER THAN 12Z. NAM KEEPS SOME QPF IN THE SE THROUGH 18Z WITH MUCH
STRONGER 700-500MB FRONTOGENESIS AND MID-UPPER LAYER Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE LINGERING OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF WEAK VORT LOBE. HOWEVER
700 MB OMEGA AND MOISTURE PUSH OUT OF THE FAR SOUTHEAST AROUND 12Z.

NWS AIR QUALITY GUIDANCE INDICATES SMOKE FROM CANADIAN FIRES THAT
HAS MIXED DOWN IN THE POST-FRONTAL SUBSIDENCE WILL CAUSE SOME VSBY
REDUCTION THROUGH AT LEAST MID-MORNING. SOME PATCHY SMOKE POSSIBLE
BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR TONIGHT...WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS ALLOWING COOL LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...WITH SOME
PATCHY FOG FORMING ESPECIALLY NW SECTIONS OF S CENTRAL WI.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN A STRONG HOLD OVER SOUTHERN WI
WED AND THU. A LAKE BREEZE IS EXPECTED EACH DAY SO HIGHS WILL BE A
BIT COOLER NEAR THE LAKE. PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE RIDING THROUGH THE MIDWEST SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
WI/IL BORDER WED NIGHT SO REDUCED POPS. SOME RESIDUAL CLOUDS ARE
POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN WI DURING THE DAY THU... SO TEMPS WILL CONTINUE
TO RUN A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.LONG TERM...

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL SET UP OVER THE WESTERN COASTAL REGION WHILE
A RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW TO PUSH THE 850MB BAROCLINIC ZONE
INTO THE SOUTHERN WI AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. THERE ARE STILL
DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE ECMWF... GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS ABOUT
WHETHER OR NOT THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL PUSH INTO NORTHERN WI OR
REMAIN OVER NORTHERN IL. THE ECMWF IS THE MODEL REMAINING THE
FARTHEST SOUTH. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHERN WI
WILL BE FRI AFTERNOON/NIGHT WHEN THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET
POINTS RIGHT INTO THE AREA.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW.

THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY FOR PRECIP CHANCES AND
TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF IS COOLER AND WETTER
THAN THE GFS DUE TO DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/RIDGE
LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...COMING SOON.

&&

.MARINE...TIGHT GRADIENT IS PRODUCING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NORTHERLY
WIND GUSTS THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO MID MORNING N OF PT WASHINGTON
AND INTO THE AFTERNOON TO THE SOUTH. THE LONG FETCH WILL BUILD HIGH
WAVES THAT WILL LINGER INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHERN
ZONES. HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL ZONES...ENDING AT
15Z WHERE WINDS AND WAVES WILL FALL BELOW CRITERIA NORTH OF PORT
WASHINGTON...AND UNTIL 00Z FOR THE REMAINING ZONES.

&&

.BEACHES...WILL BE ISSUING A BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT BEGINNING AT
13Z THROUGH 00Z FOR THE BEACHES OF OZAUKEE...MILWAUKEE...RACINE AND
KENOSHA COUNTIES DUE TO 3 TO 5 FOOT WAVES PRODUCING DANGEROUS
CURRENTS ALONG THE SHORE AND ESPECIALLY NEAR PIERS AND BREAKWATERS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR WIZ060-066-071-072.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ644>646.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR LMZ643.

&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...REM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MRC





000
FXUS63 KMKX 070139
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
839 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.UPDATE...
SHOWERS HAVE BEEN EXPANDING OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO AS THE COLD
FRONT PUSHES IN. THE FRONT HAS REACHED THE WISCONSIN DELLS AT 8 PM
THIS EVENING...AND WILL ARRIVE IN MADISON BY 10 PM AND MILWAUKEE
ABOUT 1 AM. NONE OF THIS STUFF HAS HAD LIGHTNING AT THIS
POINT...BUT IT CAN/T BE RULED OUT AS WE STILL HAVE ENOUGH CAPE OUT
THERE TO SUPPORT IT IF IT CAN GET ORGANIZED. HOWEVER...MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE NIL AND THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS VERY POOR. THE
BEST SUPPORT IS ALL IN THE LOWER LEVELS WHERE THE 0-1KM SHEAR IS
DECENT. THE LOW LEVELS ARE SATURATED AND LEADING TO SOME LOW LCL
HEIGHTS. WE/RE GETTING SOME SCARY LOOKING CLOUDS AND ONE DID
RESULT IN A CITIZEN REPORT OF A FUNNEL EARLIER THIS EVENING UP IN
COLUMBIA COUNTY. A SPOTTER PIC CAME IN AND CONFIRMED IT WAS JUST A
SATURATING UPDRAFT.

THE HRRR AND RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THE RAIN SHOULD BE OUT OF
MADISON BY 10 PM AND MILWAUKEE BY 3-4AM TONIGHT. WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES...WOULD EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO DUMP
SOME QUICK HEAVY RAIN.

AS STATED IN AN SPS EARLIER...THERE IS AN AREA OF SMOKE POOLING IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT AND IS LIKELY MAKING IT TO THE GROUND
IN THE POST FRONTAL SUBSIDENCE. A PARTICULATE FORECAST MODEL SUGGESTS
THIS WILL CLEAR OUT AROUND A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...
LOOK FOR MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING FOR A TIME
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TAF SITES...IN THE WAKE
OF THE COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH KMSN BY 03Z
THIS EVENING AND KMKE/KUES/KENW BY 06-07Z TUE. THE COOL NORTHERLY
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL COMBINE WITH THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN
THE AREA TO BRING THESE LOWER OPERATING CONDITIONS. CIGS WILL LIFT
BY OR SHORTLY AFTER 12Z TUE MORNING. THEN LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015/

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

SURFACE LOW VCNTY CNTRL WI WITH VERY MOIST AIRMASS ACROSS THE CWA.
MOIST ADVECTION AND LEAD SHORTWAVE DEVELOPED NUMEROUS SHRA AND A FEW
TSRA. CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN PLENTIFUL AND HAS SEVERELY REDUCED
GENERATING THE NECESSARY CAPE FOR SVR TSRA. PRIMARY SHORTWAVE AND
LOW LEVEL FRONTAL CONVERGENCE STILL LIES UPSTREAM AND ANY HEATING
COULD STILL GENERATE A STRONGER STORM OR TWO. TRENDS IN VSBL IMAGERY
SHOWS WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND EXPECT THE NEXT ROUND WITH THE
UPPER WAVE AND FRONT TO REMAIN BLO SVR LEVELS. DUE TO THE COPIOUS
MOISTURE IN PLACE THERE MAY BE SOME BRIEF DOWNPOURS. PRECIP CHANCES
WILL WIND DOWN LATER IN THE NIGHT WITH FROPA EXPECTED AROUND
MIDNIGHT...SO TRIMMED BACKS FROM NW TO SE AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.
NORTH WINDS WILL START THE COOLING/DRYING TREND IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT.

TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS DOMINATES IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTED COLD
FRONT. LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE. ANY LINGERING
MORNING STRATUS SHOULD MIX OUT A BIT INTO MORE OF A CU FIELD. 925
TEMPS IN THE 12-14C RANGE WILL YIELD HIGHS IN THE 60S IN THE EAST
WITH ADDED COOLING FROM NE WINDS AND LOWER 70S AT MORE INLAND
LOCALES.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

ZONAL FLOW AND NEARBY HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN QUIET AND COOLER
CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE
SITUATED TO THE SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL MS VALLEY REGION.  WEAK PIECES
OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY GETTING EJECTED E-NE FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL BE
TRAVELING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WED AND THU.  ONE OF THESE PIECES MAY
CLIP SRN WI LATE WED/WED NGT.  FOR NOW FARTHER NORTH NAM SOLUTION
REMAINS OUTLIER BUT HI RES ECMWF ALSO TRENDING NORTH WITH MID-LEVEL
WAVE...MORE ACROSS NRN IL.  COLUMN INITIALLY QUITE DRY.  GFS MUCH
WEAKER AND DRIER SO FOR NOW...WL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS FOR -SHRA
GOING ACROSS SRN CWA.  SUNSHINE ON WED AND FILTERED SUN ON THU
SHOULD RESULT IN PLEASANT DAYTIME TEMPS BUT REMAINING BELOW NORMAL
FOR THIS PERIOD OF JULY...COOLER BY THE LAKE.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD THAT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS IA/MO/CENTRAL IL AREA
WILL BEGIN MOVING NORTH.  NORTHWARD MOVEMENT DUE TO UPSTREAM
AMPLIFYING LONG WAVE TROFING OVER WESTERN CONUS AND ZONAL FLOW OVER
GTLAKES/MIDWEST BACKING TO MORE W TO SW STEERING FLOW.  HOWEVER
SHORT WAVES AND RESULTANT MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS FORMING ALONG
THE FRONT WOULD HAVE AN EFFECT ON HOW SPEED AND TIMING OF THE
NORTHWARD SHIFT. STRONGEST LOW LEVEL WINDS AND THETA-E TRANSPORT
INTO UPPER MIDWEST LOOKS TO OCCUR DURING THE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME.  LLJ PIVOTS OFF TO THE EAST FOR THE START
OF THE FOLLOWING WEEK.  HENCE HIGHEST POPS EXPECTED DURING THIS
PERIOD WITH LINGERING CHANCES ON MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TROF SWINGS
THRU WRN GTLAKES.  TEMPS WL START OUT BELOW SEASONAL NORMAL BUT
SHOULD WARM TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL AS WARM FRONT
APPROACHES...PENDING CLOUDS AND PRECIP.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...PRIMARY SHORTWAVE/SURFACE LOW/FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ALL STILL UPSTREAM SO SHRA/FEW TSRA STILL EXPECTED INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER HAS INHIBITED THE OTHERWISE SIZABLE
BUILDUP OF INSTABILITY. UPSTREAM STRATUS IS A CONCERN WITH LLVL RH
GETTING A BIT MOIST AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON WILL PROBABLY GO WITH A
TREND TOWARDS THE NAM MOS/GFS MOS/SREF CIG HGT PROBS ARE SUGGESTING.
FRONT COMES THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT WITH THERMAL TROUGH TAKING HOLD
WITH 850 CAA INTO TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN CU DEVELOPMENT FROM
WHATEVER LINGERING STRATUS THERE IS TUESDAY MORNING.

MARINE...WITH SURFACE LOW DRAWING CLOSER THE TIGHTER PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SLACKEN A BIT WITH TIME. SO
DECIDED TO WITH COLLAB FROM KLOT TO EXPIRE THE SMALL CRAFT AT 00Z
VERSUS THE ORIGINAL 03Z EXPIRATION. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS MAY BE
MET ON TUESDAY THOUGH WILL NOT ISSUE AT THIS TIME TO AVOID A DOUBLE
HEADLINE.

BEACHES...SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AND POSSIBLY A FEW 4 FOOT WAVES
WILL MAINTAIN A HIGH SWIM RISK TO LAKE MICHIGAN IN SHEBOYGAN AND
OZAUKEE COUNTIES THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH A MODERATE RISK TO THE
SOUTH. HOWEVER THERE IS A GRADUAL DIMINISHING TREND NOTED SO THE
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT HAS BEEN ADJUSTED BACK TO 00Z FROM THE
ORIGINALLY SCHEDULED EXPIRATION OF 03Z.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DAVIS
TONIGHT/TUESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...COLLAR
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MBK




000
FXUS63 KMKX 070139
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
839 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.UPDATE...
SHOWERS HAVE BEEN EXPANDING OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO AS THE COLD
FRONT PUSHES IN. THE FRONT HAS REACHED THE WISCONSIN DELLS AT 8 PM
THIS EVENING...AND WILL ARRIVE IN MADISON BY 10 PM AND MILWAUKEE
ABOUT 1 AM. NONE OF THIS STUFF HAS HAD LIGHTNING AT THIS
POINT...BUT IT CAN/T BE RULED OUT AS WE STILL HAVE ENOUGH CAPE OUT
THERE TO SUPPORT IT IF IT CAN GET ORGANIZED. HOWEVER...MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE NIL AND THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS VERY POOR. THE
BEST SUPPORT IS ALL IN THE LOWER LEVELS WHERE THE 0-1KM SHEAR IS
DECENT. THE LOW LEVELS ARE SATURATED AND LEADING TO SOME LOW LCL
HEIGHTS. WE/RE GETTING SOME SCARY LOOKING CLOUDS AND ONE DID
RESULT IN A CITIZEN REPORT OF A FUNNEL EARLIER THIS EVENING UP IN
COLUMBIA COUNTY. A SPOTTER PIC CAME IN AND CONFIRMED IT WAS JUST A
SATURATING UPDRAFT.

THE HRRR AND RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THE RAIN SHOULD BE OUT OF
MADISON BY 10 PM AND MILWAUKEE BY 3-4AM TONIGHT. WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES...WOULD EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO DUMP
SOME QUICK HEAVY RAIN.

AS STATED IN AN SPS EARLIER...THERE IS AN AREA OF SMOKE POOLING IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT AND IS LIKELY MAKING IT TO THE GROUND
IN THE POST FRONTAL SUBSIDENCE. A PARTICULATE FORECAST MODEL SUGGESTS
THIS WILL CLEAR OUT AROUND A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...
LOOK FOR MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING FOR A TIME
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TAF SITES...IN THE WAKE
OF THE COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH KMSN BY 03Z
THIS EVENING AND KMKE/KUES/KENW BY 06-07Z TUE. THE COOL NORTHERLY
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL COMBINE WITH THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN
THE AREA TO BRING THESE LOWER OPERATING CONDITIONS. CIGS WILL LIFT
BY OR SHORTLY AFTER 12Z TUE MORNING. THEN LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015/

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

SURFACE LOW VCNTY CNTRL WI WITH VERY MOIST AIRMASS ACROSS THE CWA.
MOIST ADVECTION AND LEAD SHORTWAVE DEVELOPED NUMEROUS SHRA AND A FEW
TSRA. CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN PLENTIFUL AND HAS SEVERELY REDUCED
GENERATING THE NECESSARY CAPE FOR SVR TSRA. PRIMARY SHORTWAVE AND
LOW LEVEL FRONTAL CONVERGENCE STILL LIES UPSTREAM AND ANY HEATING
COULD STILL GENERATE A STRONGER STORM OR TWO. TRENDS IN VSBL IMAGERY
SHOWS WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND EXPECT THE NEXT ROUND WITH THE
UPPER WAVE AND FRONT TO REMAIN BLO SVR LEVELS. DUE TO THE COPIOUS
MOISTURE IN PLACE THERE MAY BE SOME BRIEF DOWNPOURS. PRECIP CHANCES
WILL WIND DOWN LATER IN THE NIGHT WITH FROPA EXPECTED AROUND
MIDNIGHT...SO TRIMMED BACKS FROM NW TO SE AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.
NORTH WINDS WILL START THE COOLING/DRYING TREND IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT.

TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS DOMINATES IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTED COLD
FRONT. LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE. ANY LINGERING
MORNING STRATUS SHOULD MIX OUT A BIT INTO MORE OF A CU FIELD. 925
TEMPS IN THE 12-14C RANGE WILL YIELD HIGHS IN THE 60S IN THE EAST
WITH ADDED COOLING FROM NE WINDS AND LOWER 70S AT MORE INLAND
LOCALES.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

ZONAL FLOW AND NEARBY HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN QUIET AND COOLER
CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE
SITUATED TO THE SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL MS VALLEY REGION.  WEAK PIECES
OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY GETTING EJECTED E-NE FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL BE
TRAVELING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WED AND THU.  ONE OF THESE PIECES MAY
CLIP SRN WI LATE WED/WED NGT.  FOR NOW FARTHER NORTH NAM SOLUTION
REMAINS OUTLIER BUT HI RES ECMWF ALSO TRENDING NORTH WITH MID-LEVEL
WAVE...MORE ACROSS NRN IL.  COLUMN INITIALLY QUITE DRY.  GFS MUCH
WEAKER AND DRIER SO FOR NOW...WL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS FOR -SHRA
GOING ACROSS SRN CWA.  SUNSHINE ON WED AND FILTERED SUN ON THU
SHOULD RESULT IN PLEASANT DAYTIME TEMPS BUT REMAINING BELOW NORMAL
FOR THIS PERIOD OF JULY...COOLER BY THE LAKE.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD THAT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS IA/MO/CENTRAL IL AREA
WILL BEGIN MOVING NORTH.  NORTHWARD MOVEMENT DUE TO UPSTREAM
AMPLIFYING LONG WAVE TROFING OVER WESTERN CONUS AND ZONAL FLOW OVER
GTLAKES/MIDWEST BACKING TO MORE W TO SW STEERING FLOW.  HOWEVER
SHORT WAVES AND RESULTANT MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS FORMING ALONG
THE FRONT WOULD HAVE AN EFFECT ON HOW SPEED AND TIMING OF THE
NORTHWARD SHIFT. STRONGEST LOW LEVEL WINDS AND THETA-E TRANSPORT
INTO UPPER MIDWEST LOOKS TO OCCUR DURING THE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME.  LLJ PIVOTS OFF TO THE EAST FOR THE START
OF THE FOLLOWING WEEK.  HENCE HIGHEST POPS EXPECTED DURING THIS
PERIOD WITH LINGERING CHANCES ON MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TROF SWINGS
THRU WRN GTLAKES.  TEMPS WL START OUT BELOW SEASONAL NORMAL BUT
SHOULD WARM TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL AS WARM FRONT
APPROACHES...PENDING CLOUDS AND PRECIP.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...PRIMARY SHORTWAVE/SURFACE LOW/FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ALL STILL UPSTREAM SO SHRA/FEW TSRA STILL EXPECTED INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER HAS INHIBITED THE OTHERWISE SIZABLE
BUILDUP OF INSTABILITY. UPSTREAM STRATUS IS A CONCERN WITH LLVL RH
GETTING A BIT MOIST AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON WILL PROBABLY GO WITH A
TREND TOWARDS THE NAM MOS/GFS MOS/SREF CIG HGT PROBS ARE SUGGESTING.
FRONT COMES THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT WITH THERMAL TROUGH TAKING HOLD
WITH 850 CAA INTO TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN CU DEVELOPMENT FROM
WHATEVER LINGERING STRATUS THERE IS TUESDAY MORNING.

MARINE...WITH SURFACE LOW DRAWING CLOSER THE TIGHTER PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SLACKEN A BIT WITH TIME. SO
DECIDED TO WITH COLLAB FROM KLOT TO EXPIRE THE SMALL CRAFT AT 00Z
VERSUS THE ORIGINAL 03Z EXPIRATION. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS MAY BE
MET ON TUESDAY THOUGH WILL NOT ISSUE AT THIS TIME TO AVOID A DOUBLE
HEADLINE.

BEACHES...SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AND POSSIBLY A FEW 4 FOOT WAVES
WILL MAINTAIN A HIGH SWIM RISK TO LAKE MICHIGAN IN SHEBOYGAN AND
OZAUKEE COUNTIES THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH A MODERATE RISK TO THE
SOUTH. HOWEVER THERE IS A GRADUAL DIMINISHING TREND NOTED SO THE
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT HAS BEEN ADJUSTED BACK TO 00Z FROM THE
ORIGINALLY SCHEDULED EXPIRATION OF 03Z.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DAVIS
TONIGHT/TUESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...COLLAR
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MBK




000
FXUS63 KMKX 070139
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
839 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.UPDATE...
SHOWERS HAVE BEEN EXPANDING OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO AS THE COLD
FRONT PUSHES IN. THE FRONT HAS REACHED THE WISCONSIN DELLS AT 8 PM
THIS EVENING...AND WILL ARRIVE IN MADISON BY 10 PM AND MILWAUKEE
ABOUT 1 AM. NONE OF THIS STUFF HAS HAD LIGHTNING AT THIS
POINT...BUT IT CAN/T BE RULED OUT AS WE STILL HAVE ENOUGH CAPE OUT
THERE TO SUPPORT IT IF IT CAN GET ORGANIZED. HOWEVER...MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE NIL AND THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS VERY POOR. THE
BEST SUPPORT IS ALL IN THE LOWER LEVELS WHERE THE 0-1KM SHEAR IS
DECENT. THE LOW LEVELS ARE SATURATED AND LEADING TO SOME LOW LCL
HEIGHTS. WE/RE GETTING SOME SCARY LOOKING CLOUDS AND ONE DID
RESULT IN A CITIZEN REPORT OF A FUNNEL EARLIER THIS EVENING UP IN
COLUMBIA COUNTY. A SPOTTER PIC CAME IN AND CONFIRMED IT WAS JUST A
SATURATING UPDRAFT.

THE HRRR AND RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THE RAIN SHOULD BE OUT OF
MADISON BY 10 PM AND MILWAUKEE BY 3-4AM TONIGHT. WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES...WOULD EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO DUMP
SOME QUICK HEAVY RAIN.

AS STATED IN AN SPS EARLIER...THERE IS AN AREA OF SMOKE POOLING IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT AND IS LIKELY MAKING IT TO THE GROUND
IN THE POST FRONTAL SUBSIDENCE. A PARTICULATE FORECAST MODEL SUGGESTS
THIS WILL CLEAR OUT AROUND A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...
LOOK FOR MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING FOR A TIME
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TAF SITES...IN THE WAKE
OF THE COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH KMSN BY 03Z
THIS EVENING AND KMKE/KUES/KENW BY 06-07Z TUE. THE COOL NORTHERLY
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL COMBINE WITH THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN
THE AREA TO BRING THESE LOWER OPERATING CONDITIONS. CIGS WILL LIFT
BY OR SHORTLY AFTER 12Z TUE MORNING. THEN LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015/

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

SURFACE LOW VCNTY CNTRL WI WITH VERY MOIST AIRMASS ACROSS THE CWA.
MOIST ADVECTION AND LEAD SHORTWAVE DEVELOPED NUMEROUS SHRA AND A FEW
TSRA. CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN PLENTIFUL AND HAS SEVERELY REDUCED
GENERATING THE NECESSARY CAPE FOR SVR TSRA. PRIMARY SHORTWAVE AND
LOW LEVEL FRONTAL CONVERGENCE STILL LIES UPSTREAM AND ANY HEATING
COULD STILL GENERATE A STRONGER STORM OR TWO. TRENDS IN VSBL IMAGERY
SHOWS WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND EXPECT THE NEXT ROUND WITH THE
UPPER WAVE AND FRONT TO REMAIN BLO SVR LEVELS. DUE TO THE COPIOUS
MOISTURE IN PLACE THERE MAY BE SOME BRIEF DOWNPOURS. PRECIP CHANCES
WILL WIND DOWN LATER IN THE NIGHT WITH FROPA EXPECTED AROUND
MIDNIGHT...SO TRIMMED BACKS FROM NW TO SE AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.
NORTH WINDS WILL START THE COOLING/DRYING TREND IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT.

TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS DOMINATES IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTED COLD
FRONT. LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE. ANY LINGERING
MORNING STRATUS SHOULD MIX OUT A BIT INTO MORE OF A CU FIELD. 925
TEMPS IN THE 12-14C RANGE WILL YIELD HIGHS IN THE 60S IN THE EAST
WITH ADDED COOLING FROM NE WINDS AND LOWER 70S AT MORE INLAND
LOCALES.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

ZONAL FLOW AND NEARBY HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN QUIET AND COOLER
CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE
SITUATED TO THE SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL MS VALLEY REGION.  WEAK PIECES
OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY GETTING EJECTED E-NE FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL BE
TRAVELING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WED AND THU.  ONE OF THESE PIECES MAY
CLIP SRN WI LATE WED/WED NGT.  FOR NOW FARTHER NORTH NAM SOLUTION
REMAINS OUTLIER BUT HI RES ECMWF ALSO TRENDING NORTH WITH MID-LEVEL
WAVE...MORE ACROSS NRN IL.  COLUMN INITIALLY QUITE DRY.  GFS MUCH
WEAKER AND DRIER SO FOR NOW...WL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS FOR -SHRA
GOING ACROSS SRN CWA.  SUNSHINE ON WED AND FILTERED SUN ON THU
SHOULD RESULT IN PLEASANT DAYTIME TEMPS BUT REMAINING BELOW NORMAL
FOR THIS PERIOD OF JULY...COOLER BY THE LAKE.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD THAT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS IA/MO/CENTRAL IL AREA
WILL BEGIN MOVING NORTH.  NORTHWARD MOVEMENT DUE TO UPSTREAM
AMPLIFYING LONG WAVE TROFING OVER WESTERN CONUS AND ZONAL FLOW OVER
GTLAKES/MIDWEST BACKING TO MORE W TO SW STEERING FLOW.  HOWEVER
SHORT WAVES AND RESULTANT MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS FORMING ALONG
THE FRONT WOULD HAVE AN EFFECT ON HOW SPEED AND TIMING OF THE
NORTHWARD SHIFT. STRONGEST LOW LEVEL WINDS AND THETA-E TRANSPORT
INTO UPPER MIDWEST LOOKS TO OCCUR DURING THE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME.  LLJ PIVOTS OFF TO THE EAST FOR THE START
OF THE FOLLOWING WEEK.  HENCE HIGHEST POPS EXPECTED DURING THIS
PERIOD WITH LINGERING CHANCES ON MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TROF SWINGS
THRU WRN GTLAKES.  TEMPS WL START OUT BELOW SEASONAL NORMAL BUT
SHOULD WARM TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL AS WARM FRONT
APPROACHES...PENDING CLOUDS AND PRECIP.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...PRIMARY SHORTWAVE/SURFACE LOW/FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ALL STILL UPSTREAM SO SHRA/FEW TSRA STILL EXPECTED INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER HAS INHIBITED THE OTHERWISE SIZABLE
BUILDUP OF INSTABILITY. UPSTREAM STRATUS IS A CONCERN WITH LLVL RH
GETTING A BIT MOIST AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON WILL PROBABLY GO WITH A
TREND TOWARDS THE NAM MOS/GFS MOS/SREF CIG HGT PROBS ARE SUGGESTING.
FRONT COMES THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT WITH THERMAL TROUGH TAKING HOLD
WITH 850 CAA INTO TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN CU DEVELOPMENT FROM
WHATEVER LINGERING STRATUS THERE IS TUESDAY MORNING.

MARINE...WITH SURFACE LOW DRAWING CLOSER THE TIGHTER PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SLACKEN A BIT WITH TIME. SO
DECIDED TO WITH COLLAB FROM KLOT TO EXPIRE THE SMALL CRAFT AT 00Z
VERSUS THE ORIGINAL 03Z EXPIRATION. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS MAY BE
MET ON TUESDAY THOUGH WILL NOT ISSUE AT THIS TIME TO AVOID A DOUBLE
HEADLINE.

BEACHES...SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AND POSSIBLY A FEW 4 FOOT WAVES
WILL MAINTAIN A HIGH SWIM RISK TO LAKE MICHIGAN IN SHEBOYGAN AND
OZAUKEE COUNTIES THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH A MODERATE RISK TO THE
SOUTH. HOWEVER THERE IS A GRADUAL DIMINISHING TREND NOTED SO THE
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT HAS BEEN ADJUSTED BACK TO 00Z FROM THE
ORIGINALLY SCHEDULED EXPIRATION OF 03Z.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DAVIS
TONIGHT/TUESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...COLLAR
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MBK





000
FXUS63 KMKX 062022
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
320 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

SURFACE LOW VCNTY CNTRL WI WITH VERY MOIST AIRMASS ACROSS THE CWA.
MOIST ADVECTION AND LEAD SHORTWAVE DEVELOPED NUMEROUS SHRA AND A FEW
TSRA. CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN PLENTIFUL AND HAS SEVERELY REDUCED
GENERATING THE NECESSARY CAPE FOR SVR TSRA. PRIMARY SHORTWAVE AND
LOW LEVEL FRONTAL CONVERGENCE STILL LIES UPSTREAM AND ANY HEATING
COULD STILL GENERATE A STRONGER STORM OR TWO. TRENDS IN VSBL IMAGERY
SHOWS WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND EXPECT THE NEXT ROUND WITH THE
UPPER WAVE AND FRONT TO REMAIN BLO SVR LEVELS. DUE TO THE COPIOUS
MOISTURE IN PLACE THERE MAY BE SOME BRIEF DOWNPOURS. PRECIP CHANCES
WILL WIND DOWN LATER IN THE NIGHT WITH FROPA EXPECTED AROUND
MIDNIGHT...SO TRIMMED BACKS FROM NW TO SE AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.
NORTH WINDS WILL START THE COOLING/DRYING TREND IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT.

.TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS DOMINATES IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTED COLD
FRONT. LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE. ANY LINGERING
MORNING STRATUS SHOULD MIX OUT A BIT INTO MORE OF A CU FIELD. 925
TEMPS IN THE 12-14C RANGE WILL YIELD HIGHS IN THE 60S IN THE EAST
WITH ADDED COOLING FROM NE WINDS AND LOWER 70S AT MORE INLAND
LOCALES.

.TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

ZONAL FLOW AND NEARBY HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN QUIET AND COOLER
CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE
SITUATED TO THE SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL MS VALLEY REGION.  WEAK PIECES
OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY GETTING EJECTED E-NE FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL BE
TRAVELING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WED AND THU.  ONE OF THESE PIECES MAY
CLIP SRN WI LATE WED/WED NGT.  FOR NOW FARTHER NORTH NAM SOLUTION
REMAINS OUTLIER BUT HI RES ECMWF ALSO TRENDING NORTH WITH MID-LEVEL
WAVE...MORE ACROSS NRN IL.  COLUMN INITIALLY QUITE DRY.  GFS MUCH
WEAKER AND DRIER SO FOR NOW...WL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS FOR -SHRA
GOING ACROSS SRN CWA.  SUNSHINE ON WED AND FILTERED SUN ON THU
SHOULD RESULT IN PLEASANT DAYTIME TEMPS BUT REMAINING BELOW NORMAL
FOR THIS PERIOD OF JULY...COOLER BY THE LAKE.

.THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD THAT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS IA/MO/CENTRAL IL AREA
WILL BEGIN MOVING NORTH.  NORTHWARD MOVEMENT DUE TO UPSTREAM
AMPLIFYING LONG WAVE TROFING OVER WESTERN CONUS AND ZONAL FLOW OVER
GTLAKES/MIDWEST BACKING TO MORE W TO SW STEERING FLOW.  HOWEVER
SHORT WAVES AND RESULTANT MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS FORMING ALONG
THE FRONT WOULD HAVE AN EFFECT ON HOW SPEED AND TIMING OF THE
NORTHWARD SHIFT. STRONGEST LOW LEVEL WINDS AND THETA-E TRANSPORT
INTO UPPER MIDWEST LOOKS TO OCCUR DURING THE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME.  LLJ PIVOTS OFF TO THE EAST FOR THE START
OF THE FOLLOWING WEEK.  HENCE HIGHEST POPS EXPECTED DURING THIS
PERIOD WITH LINGERING CHANCES ON MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TROF SWINGS
THRU WRN GTLAKES.  TEMPS WL START OUT BELOW SEASONAL NORMAL BUT
SHOULD WARM TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL AS WARM FRONT
APPROACHES...PENDING CLOUDS AND PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...PRIMARY SHORTWAVE/SURFACE LOW/FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ALL STILL UPSTREAM SO SHRA/FEW TSRA STILL EXPECTED INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER HAS INHIBITED THE OTHERWISE SIZABLE
BUILDUP OF INSTABILITY. UPSTREAM STRATUS IS A CONCERN WITH LLVL RH
GETTING A BIT MOIST AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON WILL PROBABLY GO WITH A
TREND TOWARDS THE NAM MOS/GFS MOS/SREF CIG HGT PROBS ARE SUGGESTING.
FRONT COMES THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT WITH THERMAL TROUGH TAKING HOLD
WITH 850 CAA INTO TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN CU DEVELOPMENT FROM
WHATEVER LINGERING STRATUS THERE IS TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...WITH SURFACE LOW DRAWING CLOSER THE TIGHTER PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SLACKEN A BIT WITH TIME. SO
DECIDED TO WITH COLLAB FROM KLOT TO EXPIRE THE SMALL CRAFT AT 00Z
VERSUS THE ORIGINAL 03Z EXPIRATION. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS MAY BE
MET ON TUESDAY THOUGH WILL NOT ISSUE AT THIS TIME TO AVOID A DOUBLE
HEADLINE.

&&

.BEACHES...SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AND POSSIBLY A FEW 4 FOOT WAVES
WILL MAINTAIN A HIGH SWIM RISK TO LAKE MICHIGAN IN SHEBOYGAN AND
OZAUKEE COUNTIES THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH A MODERATE RISK TO THE
SOUTH. HOWEVER THERE IS A GRADUAL DIMINISHING TREND NOTED SO THE
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT HAS BEEN ADJUSTED BACK TO 00Z FROM THE
ORIGINALLY SCHEDULED EXPIRATION OF 03Z.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ052-
060.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643>646.

$$
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY/AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...PC
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MBK





000
FXUS63 KMKX 062022
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
320 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

SURFACE LOW VCNTY CNTRL WI WITH VERY MOIST AIRMASS ACROSS THE CWA.
MOIST ADVECTION AND LEAD SHORTWAVE DEVELOPED NUMEROUS SHRA AND A FEW
TSRA. CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN PLENTIFUL AND HAS SEVERELY REDUCED
GENERATING THE NECESSARY CAPE FOR SVR TSRA. PRIMARY SHORTWAVE AND
LOW LEVEL FRONTAL CONVERGENCE STILL LIES UPSTREAM AND ANY HEATING
COULD STILL GENERATE A STRONGER STORM OR TWO. TRENDS IN VSBL IMAGERY
SHOWS WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND EXPECT THE NEXT ROUND WITH THE
UPPER WAVE AND FRONT TO REMAIN BLO SVR LEVELS. DUE TO THE COPIOUS
MOISTURE IN PLACE THERE MAY BE SOME BRIEF DOWNPOURS. PRECIP CHANCES
WILL WIND DOWN LATER IN THE NIGHT WITH FROPA EXPECTED AROUND
MIDNIGHT...SO TRIMMED BACKS FROM NW TO SE AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.
NORTH WINDS WILL START THE COOLING/DRYING TREND IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT.

.TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS DOMINATES IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTED COLD
FRONT. LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE. ANY LINGERING
MORNING STRATUS SHOULD MIX OUT A BIT INTO MORE OF A CU FIELD. 925
TEMPS IN THE 12-14C RANGE WILL YIELD HIGHS IN THE 60S IN THE EAST
WITH ADDED COOLING FROM NE WINDS AND LOWER 70S AT MORE INLAND
LOCALES.

.TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

ZONAL FLOW AND NEARBY HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN QUIET AND COOLER
CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE
SITUATED TO THE SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL MS VALLEY REGION.  WEAK PIECES
OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY GETTING EJECTED E-NE FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL BE
TRAVELING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WED AND THU.  ONE OF THESE PIECES MAY
CLIP SRN WI LATE WED/WED NGT.  FOR NOW FARTHER NORTH NAM SOLUTION
REMAINS OUTLIER BUT HI RES ECMWF ALSO TRENDING NORTH WITH MID-LEVEL
WAVE...MORE ACROSS NRN IL.  COLUMN INITIALLY QUITE DRY.  GFS MUCH
WEAKER AND DRIER SO FOR NOW...WL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS FOR -SHRA
GOING ACROSS SRN CWA.  SUNSHINE ON WED AND FILTERED SUN ON THU
SHOULD RESULT IN PLEASANT DAYTIME TEMPS BUT REMAINING BELOW NORMAL
FOR THIS PERIOD OF JULY...COOLER BY THE LAKE.

.THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD THAT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS IA/MO/CENTRAL IL AREA
WILL BEGIN MOVING NORTH.  NORTHWARD MOVEMENT DUE TO UPSTREAM
AMPLIFYING LONG WAVE TROFING OVER WESTERN CONUS AND ZONAL FLOW OVER
GTLAKES/MIDWEST BACKING TO MORE W TO SW STEERING FLOW.  HOWEVER
SHORT WAVES AND RESULTANT MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS FORMING ALONG
THE FRONT WOULD HAVE AN EFFECT ON HOW SPEED AND TIMING OF THE
NORTHWARD SHIFT. STRONGEST LOW LEVEL WINDS AND THETA-E TRANSPORT
INTO UPPER MIDWEST LOOKS TO OCCUR DURING THE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME.  LLJ PIVOTS OFF TO THE EAST FOR THE START
OF THE FOLLOWING WEEK.  HENCE HIGHEST POPS EXPECTED DURING THIS
PERIOD WITH LINGERING CHANCES ON MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TROF SWINGS
THRU WRN GTLAKES.  TEMPS WL START OUT BELOW SEASONAL NORMAL BUT
SHOULD WARM TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL AS WARM FRONT
APPROACHES...PENDING CLOUDS AND PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...PRIMARY SHORTWAVE/SURFACE LOW/FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ALL STILL UPSTREAM SO SHRA/FEW TSRA STILL EXPECTED INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER HAS INHIBITED THE OTHERWISE SIZABLE
BUILDUP OF INSTABILITY. UPSTREAM STRATUS IS A CONCERN WITH LLVL RH
GETTING A BIT MOIST AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON WILL PROBABLY GO WITH A
TREND TOWARDS THE NAM MOS/GFS MOS/SREF CIG HGT PROBS ARE SUGGESTING.
FRONT COMES THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT WITH THERMAL TROUGH TAKING HOLD
WITH 850 CAA INTO TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN CU DEVELOPMENT FROM
WHATEVER LINGERING STRATUS THERE IS TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...WITH SURFACE LOW DRAWING CLOSER THE TIGHTER PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SLACKEN A BIT WITH TIME. SO
DECIDED TO WITH COLLAB FROM KLOT TO EXPIRE THE SMALL CRAFT AT 00Z
VERSUS THE ORIGINAL 03Z EXPIRATION. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS MAY BE
MET ON TUESDAY THOUGH WILL NOT ISSUE AT THIS TIME TO AVOID A DOUBLE
HEADLINE.

&&

.BEACHES...SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AND POSSIBLY A FEW 4 FOOT WAVES
WILL MAINTAIN A HIGH SWIM RISK TO LAKE MICHIGAN IN SHEBOYGAN AND
OZAUKEE COUNTIES THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH A MODERATE RISK TO THE
SOUTH. HOWEVER THERE IS A GRADUAL DIMINISHING TREND NOTED SO THE
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT HAS BEEN ADJUSTED BACK TO 00Z FROM THE
ORIGINALLY SCHEDULED EXPIRATION OF 03Z.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ052-
060.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643>646.

$$
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY/AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...PC
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MBK




000
FXUS63 KMKX 061546
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1046 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...LEAD ELONGATED BAND OF SHRA/TSRA ASSOCIATED
WITH SHORTWAVE AND INCREASING MOISTURE TRANSPORT EXPECTED TO MAKE
IT ALL THE WAY INTO THE EASTERN CWA BASED ON LATEST TRENDS. HAVE
BEEN BEHAVING AND EXPECT THEM TO STAY THAT WAY. PLENTY OF CLOUDS
UPSTREAM SO PROJECTED INSTABILITY NOT EXPECTED TO GET AS HIGH AS
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT FOR ANY LATER DAY/EVENING PRE-FRONTAL
DEVELOPMENT. OVERALL 0-6KM BULK SHEAR NOT IMPRESSIVE AND MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES POOR AS WELL. UPSTREAM STRATUS IS A CONCERN WITH LLVL
RH GETTING A BIT MOIST AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON WILL PROBABLY GO WITH
A TREND TOWARDS THE NAM MOS CIG HGT/SREF CIG PROBS ARE SUGGESTING.
FRONT COMES THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT WITH THERMAL TROUGH TAKING
HOLD WITH 850 CAA INTO TUESDAY.

PC

&&

.MARINE...WL CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT ADVY FOR THIS AFTN AND EVE.
THINNING CIRRUS SHIELD SHOULD ALLOW SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS TO TURN
MORE MIXY REST OF THIS MRNG AND EARLY AFTN.  HOWEVER UPSTREAM
CONVECTION OVER SOUTHWEST WI MAY HOLD TOGETHER AND AFFECT NEARSHORE
WATERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON.  BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION TONIGHT
AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SRN WI.  RECENT MODIS IMAGERY MEASURED
LAKE SFC TEMP IN THE UPPER 50S.  WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S...EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS INTO
TONIGHT.  WL BE WATCHING SHORE WEBCAMS CLOSELY IN CASE FOG THICKENS.
MAY NEED TO ISSUE MARINE DENSE FOG ADVY AS WOULD EXPECT FOG TO
PERSIST INTO TONIGHT...EXCEPT FOR WHEN SHOWERS AND STORMS CLEANSE
FOG FOR A TIME.

MBK

&&

.BEACHES...WL CONTINUE BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT FOR OZAUKEE AND
SHEBOYGAN COUNTIES THIS AFTN AND EVE.  TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN
GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS AFTN AND EVE WITH A FEW GUSTS UP
TO 25 MPH.  CURRENTLY THINNING CIRRUS SHIELD OVER SOUTHEAST WI
SLOWING DOWN MIXING BUT SOME THINNING EXPECTED INTO THE EARLY AFTN.
HOWEVER BEACHGOERS WL NEED TO KEEP EYE ON RADAR AS THUNDERSTORMS
OVER SOUTHWEST WI...MAY AFFECT LAKE MI SHORE DURING THE AFTN.  THERE
IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR A PERIOD OF STORMS DURING THE EVE.

MBK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 922 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015/

UPDATE...RAMPED UP POPS IN WESTERN CWA TO ACCOUNT FOR SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPING WITH LEAD SHORTWAVE AND DECENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO
THE AREA. STORMS BEHAVING THEMSELVES SO FAR WITH VERY WARM COLUMN
AND LESS THAN IDEAL MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR A BIT
BETTER IN WESTERN CWA. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS.

PC

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

AN UPPER SHORTWAVE EXTENDS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WITH A RIDGE FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES.  THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE REACHES LAKE SUPERIOR THIS EVENING
AS THE SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES TO 65 KNOTS FROM WEST CENTRAL TO
NORTHERN WISCONSIN.  THE FLOW IS DIFFLUENT ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
TODAY.  AS A RESULT THE UPPER DIVERGENCE INCREASES THIS MORNING AND
CONTINUES OVER THE SOUTHEAST TO AROUND MIDNIGHT.

THE MID LEVEL TROUGH SHARPENS AS IT PUSHES INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
TOWARD EVENING.  700 MB UPWARD MOTION INCREASES TODAY AND REMAINS
OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THIS EVENING AND ACROSS SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. THE GFS BRINGS A 50 KNOT 700 MB JET MAX INTO
WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON.  SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN IS IN THE ENTRANCE REGION...ALTHOUGH SPEEDS INCREASE TO
ALMOST 40 KNOTS THIS EVENING.

THE 850 MB THERMAL RIDGE MOVES INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BY NOON OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND DURING THE AFTERNOON SOUTHEAST. 500 MB
TEMPERATURES ALSO WARM RESULTING IN MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 5.6
CELSIUS/KM...WHILE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE AROUND 8 CELSIUS/KM BY
MID AFTERNOON. THE 850 MB WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 30 KNOTS BY
EVENING.

ZERO TO 1 KM MIXED LAYER CAPE RISES TO AROUND 1200 JOULES/KG ON THE
GFS BY MID AFTERNOON.  ZERO TO 6 KM SHEAR IS RATHER LOW...WITH THE
HIGHER SHEAR ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.

MOST OF THE MESO MODELS BRING REMNANTS OF THE UPSTREAM NOCTURNAL
CONVECTION...WITH A SECOND STRONG AREA DEVELOPING ALONG THE COLD
FRONT LATER TOWARD EVENING IN SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND OVERNIGHT
IN THE SOUTHEAST.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO 2.1 INCHES.  THEREFORE THE
LINE OF STORMS WITH THE COLD FRONT COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS.
CORFIDI VECTORS ARE WEAK BUT WITH A LINEAR SYSTEM WILL NOT ISSUE
ANY FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS A SLIGHT RISK MAINLY SOUTH OF A LINE
FROM LONE ROCK TO NORTH OF MADISON...TO JEFFERSON AND LAKE GENEVA.
THIS WOULD BE FOR THE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THE REST
OF THE FORECAST AREA IS IN A MARGINAL RISK...AS THE INSTABILITY WILL
DECREASE AFTER SUNSET BEFORE THE STORMS REACH THE FAR EAST.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

ANY LINGERING PRECIP SHOULD WIND DOWN IN THE SOUTHEAST BY EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING...WITH DRY WEATHER THEN EXPECTED THOUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY MORNING UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW WILL APPROACH LATER WEDNESDAY...MOVING BY SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE NAM IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH
THIS SYSTEM ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. KEPT POPS LOW PER CONSENSUS
OF OTHER MODELS THOUGH...WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN THE SOUTHEAST.

SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPS RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
TUE/WED.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY THURSDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE...WITH A
SHORTWAVE TO BRING SHOWER STORM CHANCES BY LATER THURSDAY NIGHT OR
FRIDAY.

MORE WAVES RIDING THROUGH BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BRING SHOWER/STORM
CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NOT GREAT AGREEMENT IN WAVE
PLACEMENT AND TIMING BETWEEN MODELS...SO CHANCE POPS ARE SPREAD
OUT THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

LOOKS LIKE TEMPS SHOULD WARM BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY FRIDAY...THEN
POSSIBLY EVEN SOMEWHAT ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND. NOT A TON OF
CONFIDENCE IN TEMPS THOUGH DUE TO TIMING OF WAVES AND RESULTANT
CLOUDS/PRECIP.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

EXCEPT FOR LOW CHANCE FOR SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE LAST FEW HOURS
BEFORE SUNRISE...STILL LOOKING AT TREND OF LATEST HRRR AND PREVIOUS
NAM RUNS OF BRINGING A LEAD BAND OF DYING CONVECTION INTO SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN IN THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS. THEN EXPECT
REDEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN EARLY THIS EVENING...AND THE SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT.  MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...THEN MVFR/IFR
IN THE STORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT. IFR CIGS EXPECTED TO LINGER FOR
A WHILE BEHIND THE FRONT.

MARINE...

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING...AND THUS WILL
LEAVE TIMING OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS IS. PRIOR TO WINDS PICKING
UP...COULD SEE SOME HAZE/FOG THAT REDUCES VSBYS UNDER 5 MILES...AND
POSSIBLY SOME PATCHES OF DENSE FOG.

THEN A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG A COLD FRONT
TONIGHT.  WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST TO NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT.

BEACHES...

BRISK SOUTH WINDS AND 4 FOOT WAVES WILL BRING A HIGH SWIM RISK TO
LAKE MICHIGAN IN SHEBOYGAN AND OZAUKEE COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING WITH A MODERATE RISK TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ052-
     060.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...DDV





000
FXUS63 KMKX 061546
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1046 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...LEAD ELONGATED BAND OF SHRA/TSRA ASSOCIATED
WITH SHORTWAVE AND INCREASING MOISTURE TRANSPORT EXPECTED TO MAKE
IT ALL THE WAY INTO THE EASTERN CWA BASED ON LATEST TRENDS. HAVE
BEEN BEHAVING AND EXPECT THEM TO STAY THAT WAY. PLENTY OF CLOUDS
UPSTREAM SO PROJECTED INSTABILITY NOT EXPECTED TO GET AS HIGH AS
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT FOR ANY LATER DAY/EVENING PRE-FRONTAL
DEVELOPMENT. OVERALL 0-6KM BULK SHEAR NOT IMPRESSIVE AND MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES POOR AS WELL. UPSTREAM STRATUS IS A CONCERN WITH LLVL
RH GETTING A BIT MOIST AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON WILL PROBABLY GO WITH
A TREND TOWARDS THE NAM MOS CIG HGT/SREF CIG PROBS ARE SUGGESTING.
FRONT COMES THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT WITH THERMAL TROUGH TAKING
HOLD WITH 850 CAA INTO TUESDAY.

PC

&&

.MARINE...WL CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT ADVY FOR THIS AFTN AND EVE.
THINNING CIRRUS SHIELD SHOULD ALLOW SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS TO TURN
MORE MIXY REST OF THIS MRNG AND EARLY AFTN.  HOWEVER UPSTREAM
CONVECTION OVER SOUTHWEST WI MAY HOLD TOGETHER AND AFFECT NEARSHORE
WATERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON.  BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION TONIGHT
AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SRN WI.  RECENT MODIS IMAGERY MEASURED
LAKE SFC TEMP IN THE UPPER 50S.  WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S...EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS INTO
TONIGHT.  WL BE WATCHING SHORE WEBCAMS CLOSELY IN CASE FOG THICKENS.
MAY NEED TO ISSUE MARINE DENSE FOG ADVY AS WOULD EXPECT FOG TO
PERSIST INTO TONIGHT...EXCEPT FOR WHEN SHOWERS AND STORMS CLEANSE
FOG FOR A TIME.

MBK

&&

.BEACHES...WL CONTINUE BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT FOR OZAUKEE AND
SHEBOYGAN COUNTIES THIS AFTN AND EVE.  TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN
GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS AFTN AND EVE WITH A FEW GUSTS UP
TO 25 MPH.  CURRENTLY THINNING CIRRUS SHIELD OVER SOUTHEAST WI
SLOWING DOWN MIXING BUT SOME THINNING EXPECTED INTO THE EARLY AFTN.
HOWEVER BEACHGOERS WL NEED TO KEEP EYE ON RADAR AS THUNDERSTORMS
OVER SOUTHWEST WI...MAY AFFECT LAKE MI SHORE DURING THE AFTN.  THERE
IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR A PERIOD OF STORMS DURING THE EVE.

MBK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 922 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015/

UPDATE...RAMPED UP POPS IN WESTERN CWA TO ACCOUNT FOR SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPING WITH LEAD SHORTWAVE AND DECENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO
THE AREA. STORMS BEHAVING THEMSELVES SO FAR WITH VERY WARM COLUMN
AND LESS THAN IDEAL MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR A BIT
BETTER IN WESTERN CWA. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS.

PC

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

AN UPPER SHORTWAVE EXTENDS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WITH A RIDGE FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES.  THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE REACHES LAKE SUPERIOR THIS EVENING
AS THE SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES TO 65 KNOTS FROM WEST CENTRAL TO
NORTHERN WISCONSIN.  THE FLOW IS DIFFLUENT ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
TODAY.  AS A RESULT THE UPPER DIVERGENCE INCREASES THIS MORNING AND
CONTINUES OVER THE SOUTHEAST TO AROUND MIDNIGHT.

THE MID LEVEL TROUGH SHARPENS AS IT PUSHES INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
TOWARD EVENING.  700 MB UPWARD MOTION INCREASES TODAY AND REMAINS
OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THIS EVENING AND ACROSS SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. THE GFS BRINGS A 50 KNOT 700 MB JET MAX INTO
WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON.  SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN IS IN THE ENTRANCE REGION...ALTHOUGH SPEEDS INCREASE TO
ALMOST 40 KNOTS THIS EVENING.

THE 850 MB THERMAL RIDGE MOVES INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BY NOON OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND DURING THE AFTERNOON SOUTHEAST. 500 MB
TEMPERATURES ALSO WARM RESULTING IN MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 5.6
CELSIUS/KM...WHILE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE AROUND 8 CELSIUS/KM BY
MID AFTERNOON. THE 850 MB WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 30 KNOTS BY
EVENING.

ZERO TO 1 KM MIXED LAYER CAPE RISES TO AROUND 1200 JOULES/KG ON THE
GFS BY MID AFTERNOON.  ZERO TO 6 KM SHEAR IS RATHER LOW...WITH THE
HIGHER SHEAR ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.

MOST OF THE MESO MODELS BRING REMNANTS OF THE UPSTREAM NOCTURNAL
CONVECTION...WITH A SECOND STRONG AREA DEVELOPING ALONG THE COLD
FRONT LATER TOWARD EVENING IN SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND OVERNIGHT
IN THE SOUTHEAST.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO 2.1 INCHES.  THEREFORE THE
LINE OF STORMS WITH THE COLD FRONT COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS.
CORFIDI VECTORS ARE WEAK BUT WITH A LINEAR SYSTEM WILL NOT ISSUE
ANY FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS A SLIGHT RISK MAINLY SOUTH OF A LINE
FROM LONE ROCK TO NORTH OF MADISON...TO JEFFERSON AND LAKE GENEVA.
THIS WOULD BE FOR THE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THE REST
OF THE FORECAST AREA IS IN A MARGINAL RISK...AS THE INSTABILITY WILL
DECREASE AFTER SUNSET BEFORE THE STORMS REACH THE FAR EAST.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

ANY LINGERING PRECIP SHOULD WIND DOWN IN THE SOUTHEAST BY EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING...WITH DRY WEATHER THEN EXPECTED THOUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY MORNING UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW WILL APPROACH LATER WEDNESDAY...MOVING BY SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE NAM IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH
THIS SYSTEM ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. KEPT POPS LOW PER CONSENSUS
OF OTHER MODELS THOUGH...WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN THE SOUTHEAST.

SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPS RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
TUE/WED.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY THURSDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE...WITH A
SHORTWAVE TO BRING SHOWER STORM CHANCES BY LATER THURSDAY NIGHT OR
FRIDAY.

MORE WAVES RIDING THROUGH BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BRING SHOWER/STORM
CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NOT GREAT AGREEMENT IN WAVE
PLACEMENT AND TIMING BETWEEN MODELS...SO CHANCE POPS ARE SPREAD
OUT THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

LOOKS LIKE TEMPS SHOULD WARM BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY FRIDAY...THEN
POSSIBLY EVEN SOMEWHAT ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND. NOT A TON OF
CONFIDENCE IN TEMPS THOUGH DUE TO TIMING OF WAVES AND RESULTANT
CLOUDS/PRECIP.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

EXCEPT FOR LOW CHANCE FOR SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE LAST FEW HOURS
BEFORE SUNRISE...STILL LOOKING AT TREND OF LATEST HRRR AND PREVIOUS
NAM RUNS OF BRINGING A LEAD BAND OF DYING CONVECTION INTO SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN IN THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS. THEN EXPECT
REDEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN EARLY THIS EVENING...AND THE SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT.  MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...THEN MVFR/IFR
IN THE STORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT. IFR CIGS EXPECTED TO LINGER FOR
A WHILE BEHIND THE FRONT.

MARINE...

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING...AND THUS WILL
LEAVE TIMING OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS IS. PRIOR TO WINDS PICKING
UP...COULD SEE SOME HAZE/FOG THAT REDUCES VSBYS UNDER 5 MILES...AND
POSSIBLY SOME PATCHES OF DENSE FOG.

THEN A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG A COLD FRONT
TONIGHT.  WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST TO NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT.

BEACHES...

BRISK SOUTH WINDS AND 4 FOOT WAVES WILL BRING A HIGH SWIM RISK TO
LAKE MICHIGAN IN SHEBOYGAN AND OZAUKEE COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING WITH A MODERATE RISK TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ052-
     060.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...DDV




000
FXUS63 KMKX 061546
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1046 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...LEAD ELONGATED BAND OF SHRA/TSRA ASSOCIATED
WITH SHORTWAVE AND INCREASING MOISTURE TRANSPORT EXPECTED TO MAKE
IT ALL THE WAY INTO THE EASTERN CWA BASED ON LATEST TRENDS. HAVE
BEEN BEHAVING AND EXPECT THEM TO STAY THAT WAY. PLENTY OF CLOUDS
UPSTREAM SO PROJECTED INSTABILITY NOT EXPECTED TO GET AS HIGH AS
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT FOR ANY LATER DAY/EVENING PRE-FRONTAL
DEVELOPMENT. OVERALL 0-6KM BULK SHEAR NOT IMPRESSIVE AND MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES POOR AS WELL. UPSTREAM STRATUS IS A CONCERN WITH LLVL
RH GETTING A BIT MOIST AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON WILL PROBABLY GO WITH
A TREND TOWARDS THE NAM MOS CIG HGT/SREF CIG PROBS ARE SUGGESTING.
FRONT COMES THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT WITH THERMAL TROUGH TAKING
HOLD WITH 850 CAA INTO TUESDAY.

PC

&&

.MARINE...WL CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT ADVY FOR THIS AFTN AND EVE.
THINNING CIRRUS SHIELD SHOULD ALLOW SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS TO TURN
MORE MIXY REST OF THIS MRNG AND EARLY AFTN.  HOWEVER UPSTREAM
CONVECTION OVER SOUTHWEST WI MAY HOLD TOGETHER AND AFFECT NEARSHORE
WATERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON.  BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION TONIGHT
AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SRN WI.  RECENT MODIS IMAGERY MEASURED
LAKE SFC TEMP IN THE UPPER 50S.  WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S...EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS INTO
TONIGHT.  WL BE WATCHING SHORE WEBCAMS CLOSELY IN CASE FOG THICKENS.
MAY NEED TO ISSUE MARINE DENSE FOG ADVY AS WOULD EXPECT FOG TO
PERSIST INTO TONIGHT...EXCEPT FOR WHEN SHOWERS AND STORMS CLEANSE
FOG FOR A TIME.

MBK

&&

.BEACHES...WL CONTINUE BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT FOR OZAUKEE AND
SHEBOYGAN COUNTIES THIS AFTN AND EVE.  TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN
GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS AFTN AND EVE WITH A FEW GUSTS UP
TO 25 MPH.  CURRENTLY THINNING CIRRUS SHIELD OVER SOUTHEAST WI
SLOWING DOWN MIXING BUT SOME THINNING EXPECTED INTO THE EARLY AFTN.
HOWEVER BEACHGOERS WL NEED TO KEEP EYE ON RADAR AS THUNDERSTORMS
OVER SOUTHWEST WI...MAY AFFECT LAKE MI SHORE DURING THE AFTN.  THERE
IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR A PERIOD OF STORMS DURING THE EVE.

MBK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 922 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015/

UPDATE...RAMPED UP POPS IN WESTERN CWA TO ACCOUNT FOR SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPING WITH LEAD SHORTWAVE AND DECENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO
THE AREA. STORMS BEHAVING THEMSELVES SO FAR WITH VERY WARM COLUMN
AND LESS THAN IDEAL MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR A BIT
BETTER IN WESTERN CWA. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS.

PC

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

AN UPPER SHORTWAVE EXTENDS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WITH A RIDGE FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES.  THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE REACHES LAKE SUPERIOR THIS EVENING
AS THE SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES TO 65 KNOTS FROM WEST CENTRAL TO
NORTHERN WISCONSIN.  THE FLOW IS DIFFLUENT ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
TODAY.  AS A RESULT THE UPPER DIVERGENCE INCREASES THIS MORNING AND
CONTINUES OVER THE SOUTHEAST TO AROUND MIDNIGHT.

THE MID LEVEL TROUGH SHARPENS AS IT PUSHES INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
TOWARD EVENING.  700 MB UPWARD MOTION INCREASES TODAY AND REMAINS
OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THIS EVENING AND ACROSS SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. THE GFS BRINGS A 50 KNOT 700 MB JET MAX INTO
WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON.  SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN IS IN THE ENTRANCE REGION...ALTHOUGH SPEEDS INCREASE TO
ALMOST 40 KNOTS THIS EVENING.

THE 850 MB THERMAL RIDGE MOVES INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BY NOON OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND DURING THE AFTERNOON SOUTHEAST. 500 MB
TEMPERATURES ALSO WARM RESULTING IN MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 5.6
CELSIUS/KM...WHILE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE AROUND 8 CELSIUS/KM BY
MID AFTERNOON. THE 850 MB WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 30 KNOTS BY
EVENING.

ZERO TO 1 KM MIXED LAYER CAPE RISES TO AROUND 1200 JOULES/KG ON THE
GFS BY MID AFTERNOON.  ZERO TO 6 KM SHEAR IS RATHER LOW...WITH THE
HIGHER SHEAR ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.

MOST OF THE MESO MODELS BRING REMNANTS OF THE UPSTREAM NOCTURNAL
CONVECTION...WITH A SECOND STRONG AREA DEVELOPING ALONG THE COLD
FRONT LATER TOWARD EVENING IN SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND OVERNIGHT
IN THE SOUTHEAST.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO 2.1 INCHES.  THEREFORE THE
LINE OF STORMS WITH THE COLD FRONT COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS.
CORFIDI VECTORS ARE WEAK BUT WITH A LINEAR SYSTEM WILL NOT ISSUE
ANY FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS A SLIGHT RISK MAINLY SOUTH OF A LINE
FROM LONE ROCK TO NORTH OF MADISON...TO JEFFERSON AND LAKE GENEVA.
THIS WOULD BE FOR THE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THE REST
OF THE FORECAST AREA IS IN A MARGINAL RISK...AS THE INSTABILITY WILL
DECREASE AFTER SUNSET BEFORE THE STORMS REACH THE FAR EAST.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

ANY LINGERING PRECIP SHOULD WIND DOWN IN THE SOUTHEAST BY EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING...WITH DRY WEATHER THEN EXPECTED THOUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY MORNING UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW WILL APPROACH LATER WEDNESDAY...MOVING BY SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE NAM IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH
THIS SYSTEM ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. KEPT POPS LOW PER CONSENSUS
OF OTHER MODELS THOUGH...WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN THE SOUTHEAST.

SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPS RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
TUE/WED.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY THURSDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE...WITH A
SHORTWAVE TO BRING SHOWER STORM CHANCES BY LATER THURSDAY NIGHT OR
FRIDAY.

MORE WAVES RIDING THROUGH BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BRING SHOWER/STORM
CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NOT GREAT AGREEMENT IN WAVE
PLACEMENT AND TIMING BETWEEN MODELS...SO CHANCE POPS ARE SPREAD
OUT THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

LOOKS LIKE TEMPS SHOULD WARM BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY FRIDAY...THEN
POSSIBLY EVEN SOMEWHAT ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND. NOT A TON OF
CONFIDENCE IN TEMPS THOUGH DUE TO TIMING OF WAVES AND RESULTANT
CLOUDS/PRECIP.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

EXCEPT FOR LOW CHANCE FOR SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE LAST FEW HOURS
BEFORE SUNRISE...STILL LOOKING AT TREND OF LATEST HRRR AND PREVIOUS
NAM RUNS OF BRINGING A LEAD BAND OF DYING CONVECTION INTO SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN IN THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS. THEN EXPECT
REDEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN EARLY THIS EVENING...AND THE SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT.  MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...THEN MVFR/IFR
IN THE STORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT. IFR CIGS EXPECTED TO LINGER FOR
A WHILE BEHIND THE FRONT.

MARINE...

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING...AND THUS WILL
LEAVE TIMING OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS IS. PRIOR TO WINDS PICKING
UP...COULD SEE SOME HAZE/FOG THAT REDUCES VSBYS UNDER 5 MILES...AND
POSSIBLY SOME PATCHES OF DENSE FOG.

THEN A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG A COLD FRONT
TONIGHT.  WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST TO NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT.

BEACHES...

BRISK SOUTH WINDS AND 4 FOOT WAVES WILL BRING A HIGH SWIM RISK TO
LAKE MICHIGAN IN SHEBOYGAN AND OZAUKEE COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING WITH A MODERATE RISK TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ052-
     060.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...DDV





000
FXUS63 KMKX 061422
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
922 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.UPDATE...RAMPED UP POPS IN WESTERN CWA TO ACCOUNT FOR SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPING WITH LEAD SHORTWAVE AND DECENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO
THE AREA. STORMS BEHAVING THEMSELVES SO FAR WITH VERY WARM COLUMN
AND LESS THAN IDEAL MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR A BIT
BETTER IN WESTERN CWA. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS.

PC

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

AN UPPER SHORTWAVE EXTENDS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WITH A RIDGE FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES.  THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE REACHES LAKE SUPERIOR THIS EVENING
AS THE SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES TO 65 KNOTS FROM WEST CENTRAL TO
NORTHERN WISCONSIN.  THE FLOW IS DIFFLUENT ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
TODAY.  AS A RESULT THE UPPER DIVERGENCE INCREASES THIS MORNING AND
CONTINUES OVER THE SOUTHEAST TO AROUND MIDNIGHT.

THE MID LEVEL TROUGH SHARPENS AS IT PUSHES INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
TOWARD EVENING.  700 MB UPWARD MOTION INCREASES TODAY AND REMAINS
OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THIS EVENING AND ACROSS SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. THE GFS BRINGS A 50 KNOT 700 MB JET MAX INTO
WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON.  SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN IS IN THE ENTRANCE REGION...ALTHOUGH SPEEDS INCREASE TO
ALMOST 40 KNOTS THIS EVENING.

THE 850 MB THERMAL RIDGE MOVES INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BY NOON OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND DURING THE AFTERNOON SOUTHEAST. 500 MB
TEMPERATURES ALSO WARM RESULTING IN MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 5.6
CELSIUS/KM...WHILE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE AROUND 8 CELSIUS/KM BY
MID AFTERNOON. THE 850 MB WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 30 KNOTS BY
EVENING.

ZERO TO 1 KM MIXED LAYER CAPE RISES TO AROUND 1200 JOULES/KG ON THE
GFS BY MID AFTERNOON.  ZERO TO 6 KM SHEAR IS RATHER LOW...WITH THE
HIGHER SHEAR ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.

MOST OF THE MESO MODELS BRING REMNANTS OF THE UPSTREAM NOCTURNAL
CONVECTION...WITH A SECOND STRONG AREA DEVELOPING ALONG THE COLD
FRONT LATER TOWARD EVENING IN SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND OVERNIGHT
IN THE SOUTHEAST.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO 2.1 INCHES.  THEREFORE THE
LINE OF STORMS WITH THE COLD FRONT COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS.
CORFIDI VECTORS ARE WEAK BUT WITH A LINEAR SYSTEM WILL NOT ISSUE
ANY FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS A SLIGHT RISK MAINLY SOUTH OF A LINE
FROM LONE ROCK TO NORTH OF MADISON...TO JEFFERSON AND LAKE GENEVA.
THIS WOULD BE FOR THE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THE REST
OF THE FORECAST AREA IS IN A MARGINAL RISK...AS THE INSTABILITY WILL
DECREASE AFTER SUNSET BEFORE THE STORMS REACH THE FAR EAST.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

ANY LINGERING PRECIP SHOULD WIND DOWN IN THE SOUTHEAST BY EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING...WITH DRY WEATHER THEN EXPECTED THOUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY MORNING UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW WILL APPROACH LATER WEDNESDAY...MOVING BY SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE NAM IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH
THIS SYSTEM ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. KEPT POPS LOW PER CONSENSUS
OF OTHER MODELS THOUGH...WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN THE SOUTHEAST.

SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPS RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
TUE/WED.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY THURSDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE...WITH A
SHORTWAVE TO BRING SHOWER STORM CHANCES BY LATER THURSDAY NIGHT OR
FRIDAY.

MORE WAVES RIDING THROUGH BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BRING SHOWER/STORM
CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NOT GREAT AGREEMENT IN WAVE
PLACEMENT AND TIMING BETWEEN MODELS...SO CHANCE POPS ARE SPREAD
OUT THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

LOOKS LIKE TEMPS SHOULD WARM BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY FRIDAY...THEN
POSSIBLY EVEN SOMEWHAT ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND. NOT A TON OF
CONFIDENCE IN TEMPS THOUGH DUE TO TIMING OF WAVES AND RESULTANT
CLOUDS/PRECIP.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

EXCEPT FOR LOW CHANCE FOR SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE LAST FEW HOURS
BEFORE SUNRISE...STILL LOOKING AT TREND OF LATEST HRRR AND PREVIOUS
NAM RUNS OF BRINGING A LEAD BAND OF DYING CONVECTION INTO SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN IN THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS. THEN EXPECT
REDEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN EARLY THIS EVENING...AND THE SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT.  MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...THEN MVFR/IFR
IN THE STORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT. IFR CIGS EXPECTED TO LINGER FOR
A WHILE BEHIND THE FRONT.

MARINE...

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING...AND THUS WILL
LEAVE TIMING OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS IS. PRIOR TO WINDS PICKING
UP...COULD SEE SOME HAZE/FOG THAT REDUCES VSBYS UNDER 5 MILES...AND
POSSIBLY SOME PATCHES OF DENSE FOG.

THEN A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG A COLD FRONT
TONIGHT.  WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST TO NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT.

BEACHES...

BRISK SOUTH WINDS AND 4 FOOT WAVES WILL BRING A HIGH SWIM RISK TO
LAKE MICHIGAN IN SHEBOYGAN AND OZAUKEE COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING WITH A MODERATE RISK TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR WIZ052-060.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...DDV





000
FXUS63 KMKX 061422
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
922 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.UPDATE...RAMPED UP POPS IN WESTERN CWA TO ACCOUNT FOR SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPING WITH LEAD SHORTWAVE AND DECENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO
THE AREA. STORMS BEHAVING THEMSELVES SO FAR WITH VERY WARM COLUMN
AND LESS THAN IDEAL MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR A BIT
BETTER IN WESTERN CWA. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS.

PC

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

AN UPPER SHORTWAVE EXTENDS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WITH A RIDGE FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES.  THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE REACHES LAKE SUPERIOR THIS EVENING
AS THE SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES TO 65 KNOTS FROM WEST CENTRAL TO
NORTHERN WISCONSIN.  THE FLOW IS DIFFLUENT ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
TODAY.  AS A RESULT THE UPPER DIVERGENCE INCREASES THIS MORNING AND
CONTINUES OVER THE SOUTHEAST TO AROUND MIDNIGHT.

THE MID LEVEL TROUGH SHARPENS AS IT PUSHES INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
TOWARD EVENING.  700 MB UPWARD MOTION INCREASES TODAY AND REMAINS
OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THIS EVENING AND ACROSS SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. THE GFS BRINGS A 50 KNOT 700 MB JET MAX INTO
WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON.  SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN IS IN THE ENTRANCE REGION...ALTHOUGH SPEEDS INCREASE TO
ALMOST 40 KNOTS THIS EVENING.

THE 850 MB THERMAL RIDGE MOVES INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BY NOON OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND DURING THE AFTERNOON SOUTHEAST. 500 MB
TEMPERATURES ALSO WARM RESULTING IN MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 5.6
CELSIUS/KM...WHILE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE AROUND 8 CELSIUS/KM BY
MID AFTERNOON. THE 850 MB WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 30 KNOTS BY
EVENING.

ZERO TO 1 KM MIXED LAYER CAPE RISES TO AROUND 1200 JOULES/KG ON THE
GFS BY MID AFTERNOON.  ZERO TO 6 KM SHEAR IS RATHER LOW...WITH THE
HIGHER SHEAR ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.

MOST OF THE MESO MODELS BRING REMNANTS OF THE UPSTREAM NOCTURNAL
CONVECTION...WITH A SECOND STRONG AREA DEVELOPING ALONG THE COLD
FRONT LATER TOWARD EVENING IN SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND OVERNIGHT
IN THE SOUTHEAST.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO 2.1 INCHES.  THEREFORE THE
LINE OF STORMS WITH THE COLD FRONT COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS.
CORFIDI VECTORS ARE WEAK BUT WITH A LINEAR SYSTEM WILL NOT ISSUE
ANY FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS A SLIGHT RISK MAINLY SOUTH OF A LINE
FROM LONE ROCK TO NORTH OF MADISON...TO JEFFERSON AND LAKE GENEVA.
THIS WOULD BE FOR THE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THE REST
OF THE FORECAST AREA IS IN A MARGINAL RISK...AS THE INSTABILITY WILL
DECREASE AFTER SUNSET BEFORE THE STORMS REACH THE FAR EAST.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

ANY LINGERING PRECIP SHOULD WIND DOWN IN THE SOUTHEAST BY EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING...WITH DRY WEATHER THEN EXPECTED THOUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY MORNING UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW WILL APPROACH LATER WEDNESDAY...MOVING BY SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE NAM IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH
THIS SYSTEM ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. KEPT POPS LOW PER CONSENSUS
OF OTHER MODELS THOUGH...WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN THE SOUTHEAST.

SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPS RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
TUE/WED.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY THURSDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE...WITH A
SHORTWAVE TO BRING SHOWER STORM CHANCES BY LATER THURSDAY NIGHT OR
FRIDAY.

MORE WAVES RIDING THROUGH BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BRING SHOWER/STORM
CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NOT GREAT AGREEMENT IN WAVE
PLACEMENT AND TIMING BETWEEN MODELS...SO CHANCE POPS ARE SPREAD
OUT THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

LOOKS LIKE TEMPS SHOULD WARM BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY FRIDAY...THEN
POSSIBLY EVEN SOMEWHAT ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND. NOT A TON OF
CONFIDENCE IN TEMPS THOUGH DUE TO TIMING OF WAVES AND RESULTANT
CLOUDS/PRECIP.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

EXCEPT FOR LOW CHANCE FOR SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE LAST FEW HOURS
BEFORE SUNRISE...STILL LOOKING AT TREND OF LATEST HRRR AND PREVIOUS
NAM RUNS OF BRINGING A LEAD BAND OF DYING CONVECTION INTO SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN IN THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS. THEN EXPECT
REDEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN EARLY THIS EVENING...AND THE SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT.  MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...THEN MVFR/IFR
IN THE STORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT. IFR CIGS EXPECTED TO LINGER FOR
A WHILE BEHIND THE FRONT.

MARINE...

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING...AND THUS WILL
LEAVE TIMING OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS IS. PRIOR TO WINDS PICKING
UP...COULD SEE SOME HAZE/FOG THAT REDUCES VSBYS UNDER 5 MILES...AND
POSSIBLY SOME PATCHES OF DENSE FOG.

THEN A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG A COLD FRONT
TONIGHT.  WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST TO NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT.

BEACHES...

BRISK SOUTH WINDS AND 4 FOOT WAVES WILL BRING A HIGH SWIM RISK TO
LAKE MICHIGAN IN SHEBOYGAN AND OZAUKEE COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING WITH A MODERATE RISK TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR WIZ052-060.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...DDV




000
FXUS63 KMKX 061422
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
922 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.UPDATE...RAMPED UP POPS IN WESTERN CWA TO ACCOUNT FOR SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPING WITH LEAD SHORTWAVE AND DECENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO
THE AREA. STORMS BEHAVING THEMSELVES SO FAR WITH VERY WARM COLUMN
AND LESS THAN IDEAL MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR A BIT
BETTER IN WESTERN CWA. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS.

PC

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

AN UPPER SHORTWAVE EXTENDS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WITH A RIDGE FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES.  THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE REACHES LAKE SUPERIOR THIS EVENING
AS THE SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES TO 65 KNOTS FROM WEST CENTRAL TO
NORTHERN WISCONSIN.  THE FLOW IS DIFFLUENT ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
TODAY.  AS A RESULT THE UPPER DIVERGENCE INCREASES THIS MORNING AND
CONTINUES OVER THE SOUTHEAST TO AROUND MIDNIGHT.

THE MID LEVEL TROUGH SHARPENS AS IT PUSHES INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
TOWARD EVENING.  700 MB UPWARD MOTION INCREASES TODAY AND REMAINS
OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THIS EVENING AND ACROSS SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. THE GFS BRINGS A 50 KNOT 700 MB JET MAX INTO
WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON.  SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN IS IN THE ENTRANCE REGION...ALTHOUGH SPEEDS INCREASE TO
ALMOST 40 KNOTS THIS EVENING.

THE 850 MB THERMAL RIDGE MOVES INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BY NOON OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND DURING THE AFTERNOON SOUTHEAST. 500 MB
TEMPERATURES ALSO WARM RESULTING IN MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 5.6
CELSIUS/KM...WHILE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE AROUND 8 CELSIUS/KM BY
MID AFTERNOON. THE 850 MB WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 30 KNOTS BY
EVENING.

ZERO TO 1 KM MIXED LAYER CAPE RISES TO AROUND 1200 JOULES/KG ON THE
GFS BY MID AFTERNOON.  ZERO TO 6 KM SHEAR IS RATHER LOW...WITH THE
HIGHER SHEAR ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.

MOST OF THE MESO MODELS BRING REMNANTS OF THE UPSTREAM NOCTURNAL
CONVECTION...WITH A SECOND STRONG AREA DEVELOPING ALONG THE COLD
FRONT LATER TOWARD EVENING IN SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND OVERNIGHT
IN THE SOUTHEAST.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO 2.1 INCHES.  THEREFORE THE
LINE OF STORMS WITH THE COLD FRONT COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS.
CORFIDI VECTORS ARE WEAK BUT WITH A LINEAR SYSTEM WILL NOT ISSUE
ANY FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS A SLIGHT RISK MAINLY SOUTH OF A LINE
FROM LONE ROCK TO NORTH OF MADISON...TO JEFFERSON AND LAKE GENEVA.
THIS WOULD BE FOR THE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THE REST
OF THE FORECAST AREA IS IN A MARGINAL RISK...AS THE INSTABILITY WILL
DECREASE AFTER SUNSET BEFORE THE STORMS REACH THE FAR EAST.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

ANY LINGERING PRECIP SHOULD WIND DOWN IN THE SOUTHEAST BY EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING...WITH DRY WEATHER THEN EXPECTED THOUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY MORNING UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW WILL APPROACH LATER WEDNESDAY...MOVING BY SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE NAM IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH
THIS SYSTEM ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. KEPT POPS LOW PER CONSENSUS
OF OTHER MODELS THOUGH...WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN THE SOUTHEAST.

SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPS RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
TUE/WED.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY THURSDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE...WITH A
SHORTWAVE TO BRING SHOWER STORM CHANCES BY LATER THURSDAY NIGHT OR
FRIDAY.

MORE WAVES RIDING THROUGH BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BRING SHOWER/STORM
CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NOT GREAT AGREEMENT IN WAVE
PLACEMENT AND TIMING BETWEEN MODELS...SO CHANCE POPS ARE SPREAD
OUT THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

LOOKS LIKE TEMPS SHOULD WARM BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY FRIDAY...THEN
POSSIBLY EVEN SOMEWHAT ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND. NOT A TON OF
CONFIDENCE IN TEMPS THOUGH DUE TO TIMING OF WAVES AND RESULTANT
CLOUDS/PRECIP.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

EXCEPT FOR LOW CHANCE FOR SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE LAST FEW HOURS
BEFORE SUNRISE...STILL LOOKING AT TREND OF LATEST HRRR AND PREVIOUS
NAM RUNS OF BRINGING A LEAD BAND OF DYING CONVECTION INTO SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN IN THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS. THEN EXPECT
REDEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN EARLY THIS EVENING...AND THE SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT.  MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...THEN MVFR/IFR
IN THE STORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT. IFR CIGS EXPECTED TO LINGER FOR
A WHILE BEHIND THE FRONT.

MARINE...

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING...AND THUS WILL
LEAVE TIMING OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS IS. PRIOR TO WINDS PICKING
UP...COULD SEE SOME HAZE/FOG THAT REDUCES VSBYS UNDER 5 MILES...AND
POSSIBLY SOME PATCHES OF DENSE FOG.

THEN A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG A COLD FRONT
TONIGHT.  WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST TO NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT.

BEACHES...

BRISK SOUTH WINDS AND 4 FOOT WAVES WILL BRING A HIGH SWIM RISK TO
LAKE MICHIGAN IN SHEBOYGAN AND OZAUKEE COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING WITH A MODERATE RISK TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR WIZ052-060.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...DDV




000
FXUS63 KMKX 061422
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
922 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.UPDATE...RAMPED UP POPS IN WESTERN CWA TO ACCOUNT FOR SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPING WITH LEAD SHORTWAVE AND DECENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO
THE AREA. STORMS BEHAVING THEMSELVES SO FAR WITH VERY WARM COLUMN
AND LESS THAN IDEAL MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR A BIT
BETTER IN WESTERN CWA. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS.

PC

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

AN UPPER SHORTWAVE EXTENDS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WITH A RIDGE FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES.  THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE REACHES LAKE SUPERIOR THIS EVENING
AS THE SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES TO 65 KNOTS FROM WEST CENTRAL TO
NORTHERN WISCONSIN.  THE FLOW IS DIFFLUENT ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
TODAY.  AS A RESULT THE UPPER DIVERGENCE INCREASES THIS MORNING AND
CONTINUES OVER THE SOUTHEAST TO AROUND MIDNIGHT.

THE MID LEVEL TROUGH SHARPENS AS IT PUSHES INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
TOWARD EVENING.  700 MB UPWARD MOTION INCREASES TODAY AND REMAINS
OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THIS EVENING AND ACROSS SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. THE GFS BRINGS A 50 KNOT 700 MB JET MAX INTO
WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON.  SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN IS IN THE ENTRANCE REGION...ALTHOUGH SPEEDS INCREASE TO
ALMOST 40 KNOTS THIS EVENING.

THE 850 MB THERMAL RIDGE MOVES INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BY NOON OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND DURING THE AFTERNOON SOUTHEAST. 500 MB
TEMPERATURES ALSO WARM RESULTING IN MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 5.6
CELSIUS/KM...WHILE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE AROUND 8 CELSIUS/KM BY
MID AFTERNOON. THE 850 MB WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 30 KNOTS BY
EVENING.

ZERO TO 1 KM MIXED LAYER CAPE RISES TO AROUND 1200 JOULES/KG ON THE
GFS BY MID AFTERNOON.  ZERO TO 6 KM SHEAR IS RATHER LOW...WITH THE
HIGHER SHEAR ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.

MOST OF THE MESO MODELS BRING REMNANTS OF THE UPSTREAM NOCTURNAL
CONVECTION...WITH A SECOND STRONG AREA DEVELOPING ALONG THE COLD
FRONT LATER TOWARD EVENING IN SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND OVERNIGHT
IN THE SOUTHEAST.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO 2.1 INCHES.  THEREFORE THE
LINE OF STORMS WITH THE COLD FRONT COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS.
CORFIDI VECTORS ARE WEAK BUT WITH A LINEAR SYSTEM WILL NOT ISSUE
ANY FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS A SLIGHT RISK MAINLY SOUTH OF A LINE
FROM LONE ROCK TO NORTH OF MADISON...TO JEFFERSON AND LAKE GENEVA.
THIS WOULD BE FOR THE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THE REST
OF THE FORECAST AREA IS IN A MARGINAL RISK...AS THE INSTABILITY WILL
DECREASE AFTER SUNSET BEFORE THE STORMS REACH THE FAR EAST.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

ANY LINGERING PRECIP SHOULD WIND DOWN IN THE SOUTHEAST BY EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING...WITH DRY WEATHER THEN EXPECTED THOUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY MORNING UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW WILL APPROACH LATER WEDNESDAY...MOVING BY SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE NAM IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH
THIS SYSTEM ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. KEPT POPS LOW PER CONSENSUS
OF OTHER MODELS THOUGH...WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN THE SOUTHEAST.

SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPS RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
TUE/WED.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY THURSDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE...WITH A
SHORTWAVE TO BRING SHOWER STORM CHANCES BY LATER THURSDAY NIGHT OR
FRIDAY.

MORE WAVES RIDING THROUGH BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BRING SHOWER/STORM
CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NOT GREAT AGREEMENT IN WAVE
PLACEMENT AND TIMING BETWEEN MODELS...SO CHANCE POPS ARE SPREAD
OUT THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

LOOKS LIKE TEMPS SHOULD WARM BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY FRIDAY...THEN
POSSIBLY EVEN SOMEWHAT ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND. NOT A TON OF
CONFIDENCE IN TEMPS THOUGH DUE TO TIMING OF WAVES AND RESULTANT
CLOUDS/PRECIP.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

EXCEPT FOR LOW CHANCE FOR SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE LAST FEW HOURS
BEFORE SUNRISE...STILL LOOKING AT TREND OF LATEST HRRR AND PREVIOUS
NAM RUNS OF BRINGING A LEAD BAND OF DYING CONVECTION INTO SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN IN THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS. THEN EXPECT
REDEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN EARLY THIS EVENING...AND THE SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT.  MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...THEN MVFR/IFR
IN THE STORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT. IFR CIGS EXPECTED TO LINGER FOR
A WHILE BEHIND THE FRONT.

MARINE...

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING...AND THUS WILL
LEAVE TIMING OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS IS. PRIOR TO WINDS PICKING
UP...COULD SEE SOME HAZE/FOG THAT REDUCES VSBYS UNDER 5 MILES...AND
POSSIBLY SOME PATCHES OF DENSE FOG.

THEN A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG A COLD FRONT
TONIGHT.  WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST TO NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT.

BEACHES...

BRISK SOUTH WINDS AND 4 FOOT WAVES WILL BRING A HIGH SWIM RISK TO
LAKE MICHIGAN IN SHEBOYGAN AND OZAUKEE COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING WITH A MODERATE RISK TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR WIZ052-060.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...DDV





000
FXUS63 KMKX 060836
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
336 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

AN UPPER SHORTWAVE EXTENDS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WITH A RIDGE FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES.  THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE REACHES LAKE SUPERIOR THIS EVENING
AS THE SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES TO 65 KNOTS FROM WEST CENTRAL TO
NORTHERN WISCONSIN.  THE FLOW IS DIFFLUENT ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
TODAY.  AS A RESULT THE UPPER DIVERGENCE INCREASES THIS MORNING AND
CONTINUES OVER THE SOUTHEAST TO AROUND MIDNIGHT.

THE MID LEVEL TROUGH SHARPENS AS IT PUSHES INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
TOWARD EVENING.  700 MB UPWARD MOTION INCREASES TODAY AND REMAINS
OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THIS EVENING AND ACROSS SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. THE GFS BRINGS A 50 KNOT 700 MB JET MAX INTO
WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON.  SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN IS IN THE ENTRANCE REGION...ALTHOUGH SPEEDS INCREASE TO
ALMOST 40 KNOTS THIS EVENING.

THE 850 MB THERMAL RIDGE MOVES INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BY NOON OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND DURING THE AFTERNOON SOUTHEAST. 500 MB
TEMPERATURES ALSO WARM RESULTING IN MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 5.6
CELSIUS/KM...WHILE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE AROUND 8 CELSIUS/KM BY
MID AFTERNOON. THE 850 MB WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 30 KNOTS BY
EVENING.

ZERO TO 1 KM MIXED LAYER CAPE RISES TO AROUND 1200 JOULES/KG ON THE
GFS BY MID AFTERNOON.  ZERO TO 6 KM SHEAR IS RATHER LOW...WITH THE
HIGHER SHEAR ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.

MOST OF THE MESO MODELS BRING REMNANTS OF THE UPSTREAM NOCTURNAL
CONVECTION...WITH A SECOND STRONG AREA DEVELOPING ALONG THE COLD
FRONT LATER TOWARD EVENING IN SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND OVERNIGHT
IN THE SOUTHEAST.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO 2.1 INCHES.  THEREFORE THE
LINE OF STORMS WITH THE COLD FRONT COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS.
CORFIDI VECTORS ARE WEAK BUT WITH A LINEAR SYSTEM WILL NOT ISSUE
ANY FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS A SLIGHT RISK MAINLY SOUTH OF A LINE
FROM LONE ROCK TO NORTH OF MADISON...TO JEFFERSON AND LAKE GENEVA.
THIS WOULD BE FOR THE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THE REST
OF THE FORECAST AREA IS IN A MARGINAL RISK...AS THE INSTABILITY WILL
DECREASE AFTER SUNSET BEFORE THE STORMS REACH THE FAR EAST.

.TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

ANY LINGERING PRECIP SHOULD WIND DOWN IN THE SOUTHEAST BY EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING...WITH DRY WEATHER THEN EXPECTED THOUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY MORNING UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW WILL APPROACH LATER WEDNESDAY...MOVING BY SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE NAM IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH
THIS SYSTEM ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. KEPT POPS LOW PER CONSENSUS
OF OTHER MODELS THOUGH...WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN THE SOUTHEAST.

SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPS RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
TUE/WED.

.THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY THURSDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE...WITH A
SHORTWAVE TO BRING SHOWER STORM CHANCES BY LATER THURSDAY NIGHT OR
FRIDAY.

MORE WAVES RIDING THROUGH BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BRING SHOWER/STORM
CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NOT GREAT AGREEMENT IN WAVE
PLACEMENT AND TIMING BETWEEN MODELS...SO CHANCE POPS ARE SPREAD
OUT THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

LOOKS LIKE TEMPS SHOULD WARM BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY FRIDAY...THEN
POSSIBLY EVEN SOMEWHAT ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND. NOT A TON OF
CONFIDENCE IN TEMPS THOUGH DUE TO TIMING OF WAVES AND RESULTANT
CLOUDS/PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

EXCEPT FOR LOW CHANCE FOR SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE LAST FEW HOURS
BEFORE SUNRISE...STILL LOOKING AT TREND OF LATEST HRRR AND PREVIOUS
NAM RUNS OF BRINGING A LEAD BAND OF DYING CONVECTION INTO SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN IN THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS. THEN EXPECT
REDEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN EARLY THIS EVENING...AND THE SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT.  MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...THEN MVFR/IFR
IN THE STORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT. IFR CIGS EXPECTED TO LINGER FOR
A WHILE BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING...AND THUS WILL
LEAVE TIMING OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS IS. PRIOR TO WINDS PICKING
UP...COULD SEE SOME HAZE/FOG THAT REDUCES VSBYS UNDER 5 MILES...AND
POSSIBLY SOME PATCHES OF DENSE FOG.

THEN A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG A COLD FRONT
TONIGHT.  WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST TO NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.BEACHES...

BRISK SOUTH WINDS AND 4 FOOT WAVES WILL BRING A HIGH SWIM RISK TO
LAKE MICHIGAN IN SHEBOYGAN AND OZAUKEE COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING WITH A MODERATE RISK TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM NOON CDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING
     FOR WIZ052-060.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...HENTZ
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...DDV




000
FXUS63 KMKX 060205 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
905 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...

NO BIG CHANGES TO FORECAST EXCEPT TO ADD SOME PATCHY FOG INTO THE
LATE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW-LEVEL WINDS
DECOUPLING SOMEWHAT...AND EVEN THOUGH SOME TURBULENT MIXING JUST
ABOVE MODEST NEAR-SURFACE INVERSION WILL PREVENT ANY WIDESPREAD
FOG...COULD NOT RULE OUT SOME PATCHY FOG. ANY FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE
WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO OF SUNRISE. LOOKING AT TREND OF LATEST HRRR
AND PREVIOUS NAM RUNS OF BRINGING A LEAD BAND OF DYING CONVECTION
FROM STORMS...CURRENTLY OVER MINNESOTA BACK TO SE SOUTH
DAKOTA...ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN IN THE MID TO LATE MORNING
HOURS. NEXT SHIFT WILL HAVE TO ASSESS THE FULL 00Z DATA SET TO SEE
IF THERE WILL BE A NEED TO BRING SOME POPS INTO THE AREA IN THE
MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...

EXCEPT FOR LOW CHANCE FOR SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE LAST FEW
HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE...STILL LOOKING AT TREND OF LATEST HRRR AND
PREVIOUS NAM RUNS OF BRINGING A LEAD BAND OF DYING CONVECTION
ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN IN THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS. WILL
AWAIT A LOOK AT COMPLETE 00Z DATA SET TO SEE IF THERE IS A NEED TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS INITIAL BAND IN THE 06Z TAFS. 12Z GUIDANCE WAS
SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR SUB-1000 FT CIGS ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT.
WILL AWAIT FULL DATA SET TO SEE IF THIS TREND CONTINUES.

&&

.MARINE...

LATEST SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE IS SUPPORTING CURRENT FORECAST TREND
OF SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING THROUGH THE MORNING...AND THUS WILL
LEAVE TIMING OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS IS. PRIOR TO WINDS PICKING
UP...COULD SEE SOME HAZE/FOG THAT REDUCES VSBYS UNDER 5
MILES...AND POSSIBLY SOME PATCHES OF DENSE FOG.

&&

.BEACHES...

THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A HIGH SWIM RISK FOR THE BEACHES OF
SHEBOYGAN AND OZAUKEE COUNTIES FROM LATE TOMORROW MORNING INTO
MONDAY EVENING. STRENGTHENING SOUTH WINDS IN THE TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE
3 TO 5 FOOT WAVES AND LIFE-THREATENING CURRENTS...ESPECIALLY ON
SOUTH-FACING BEACHES AND NEAR PIERS AND BREAKWALLS. NEXT SHIFT
WILL HAVE TO ASSESS LATEST GUIDANCE TO SEE IF A BEACH HAZARD
STATEMENT WILL BE NEEDED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015/

TONIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.

WEAK MID LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH BROAD LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
REGIME IN PLACE. WARM AND INCREASINGLY MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW SETTING
UP AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS. LLJ AND SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY
WILL KEEP THE STORMS WELL TO OUR WEST THIS PERIOD. DIURNALLY DRIVEN
CU WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
ARRIVING AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON.

MONDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

A WARM AND HUMID DAY IS SETTING UP AS SSW WINDS BECOME GUSTY. 925
TEMPS OFF THE NAM REACH LEVELS THAT WOULD SUPPORT A FEW LOWER 90S IN
PARTS OF THE EAST. OTHER MODELS NOT QUITE AS AGGRESSIVE AND SOME
CONCERN ABOUT LINGERING DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM CONVECTION TO OUR WEST.
SO WON/T GO QUITE THAT HIGH BUT WILL HAVE PLENTY OF MID/UPPER 80S
GOING. WESTERLY 500 MILLIBAR FLOW INCREASES WITH SHORTWAVE PROGGD
INTO WRN WI DURG THE AFTN. INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE PLENTIFUL. 12Z
NAM SOUNDINGS SUPPORT CAPES TO NEAR 3000 J/KG IN MSN DURG THE AFTN
WHILE THE 12Z GFS HAS INCREASED FROM THE 6Z RUN...WITH CAPES AROUND
1000 J/KG. IF SUN IS AMPLE THINK WE CAN HIT AT LEAST SOMEWHERE
CLOSER TO THE MIDDLE GROUND. SO MID LEVEL FORCING WILL BE ARRIVING
IN PRIME TIME. CWASP NUMBERS HIGHEST ON THE NAM...IN THE LOW
70S...WHILE OTHER MODELS LOWER. 0-6KM SHEAR IS OK BUT NOT AT THE
SWEET SPOT OF AOA 40 KTS. HOWEVER 0-1KM SHEAR IS 20-25 KNOTS WHICH
IS FAVORABLE. SOME CONCERN OVER THE PROGGD VERY LOW MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND THE ORIENTATION OF 850 JET CORE SHOWING MORE OF AN
ENTRANCE REGION PLACEMENT AT 00Z. MAIN UPPER JET IS PROGGD TO OUR
NORTH BUT SOME INCREASE IN UPPER DIVERGENCE NOTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON. 12Z ECMWF DEVELOPS A STRONGER LOW INTO CNTRL WI BY 00Z
WITH OTHER SOLUTIONS A BIT WEAKER BUT BEST LOW LEVEL FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE JUST WEST OF CWA BUT DRAWING CLOSER DURING PEAK HEATING.
WILL HAVE HIGHEST POPS ALIGNED SIMILARLY TO WHAT WE HAVE GOING WITH
BIGGEST POPS IN THE NW AND SMALLEST CHANCES IN THE SOUTHEAST. 4KM
SPC WRF DOES SUGGEST A SCENARIO SIMILAR TO THE 12Z NAM WITH SOME
DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE AFTERNOON.
SPC HAS UPGRADED TO SLIGHT RISK FOR MUCH OF CWA AND THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE ESP GIVEN THE POTENTIAL INSTABILITY AND BETTER FORCING
PARAMETERS ARRIVING AT PEAK TIME OF DAY INTO ESP SC WI. GIVEN PROGGD
POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WOULD NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE HAIL
DEPARTMENT...WHICH CIPS ANALOGS SUPPORT...WITH WIND EVENT MORE
LIKELY GIVEN FAVORABLE LOWER LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND PRETTY DECENT
DOWNDRAFT CAPES PROGGD.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - HIGH
TRENDING TOWARD MEDIUM.

WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY A 3 TO 5 HOUR PERIOD OF CATEGORICAL POPS
ACROSS CWA THRU 06Z TUES AS STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS SRN WI.
SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON CARRYING AXIS OF HIGHER
LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE ACROSS SRN WI ASSOCIATED WITH UPSTREAM
SHORT WAVE TROF CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS WY/CO AREA.  PLENTY OF
MOISTURE IN PLACE AS PWAT VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 2 INCHES...WHICH
IS ABOUT 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS FOR EARLY JULY. MODERATE
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING IN THE LOW LEVELS AS EXPECTED WITH FRONT
WILL EXTEND UP TO ABOUT 10K FEET INCREASING THE LIKLIHOOD FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION.  SFC DEWPT POOLING LIKELY TO INCREASE INTO
THE LOW 70S AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON MONDAY.  HOWEVER STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THERMAL PROFILE ALOFT AND AMOUNT OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH.  BULK SHEAR WILL BE
MODEATE...SUPPORTING MULTICELLS AND PERHAPS A FEW SUPERCELLS.   WITH
SFC FRONT MOVING THRU DURING BETTER TIME OF THE DAY...SPC UPGRADE TO
SLIGHT RISK IN WRN CWA UNDERSTANDABLE.

STORMS END LATER MONDAY NIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT.
DRIER...LESS HUMID AIR SPREADS RAPIDLY ACROSS SRN WI LATER MON NIGHT
AND CONTINUES ON TUE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT SITUATED SOUTH OF WI ON
WEDNESDAY MAY BRUSH THE AREA WITH SOME MID-HIGH CLOUDS...BUT AT THIS
TIME...EXPECTING THE DRIER AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE TO KEEP PRECIP
SOUTH OF THE STATELINE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM
TRENDING LOW.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAVING ISSUES LATE IN THE WEEK AS HIGHER
AMPLITUDE PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO MORE PROGRESSIVE...ZONAL SCENARIO.
WHILE DEEP...CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHERN HUDSON BAY SHIFTS SLIGHTLY
NORTHWARD...SECOND WEAKER CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHWEST CONUS IS
EXPECTED TO FURTHER WEAKEN AND GET NUDGED NORTHEAST AHEAD OF
APPROACHING ERN PACIFIC TROF.  GUIDANCE HAVING ISSUES WITH TIMING
AND STRENGTH OF AMOUNT OF RIDGING AFFECTING NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST LATE IN THE WEEK...AND ITS AFFECT ON FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRAPED ACROSS THE CENTRAL US EAST INTO THE OH VALLEY.  GFS STILL
BULLISH ON STRONGER...COMPACT SHORT WAVE AFFECTING SRN WI THU NGT
WHILE GEM MUCH SLOWER AND TAKES THIS WAVE WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON
FRIDAY.  ECMWF DOES CARRY WEAK MID-LEVEL WAVE ACROSS NRN IL THU NGT.
FOR NOW WL CONT TO CARRY SMALL POPS FOR THESE PERIODS.

FOR THE WEEKEND...DIFFERENCES CONTINUE AS ECMWF CONTINUES
DRIER...MORE ZONAL PATTERN ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WHILE GFS
TRENDING TO MORE SOUTHWEST STEERING FLOW.  THIS WOULD RESULT IN MORE
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS FOR THE REGION AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTS
NORTHWARD.  WPC BLENDED SOLUTION FAVORING DRIER ECMWF SOLUTION BUT
DOES GIVE SOME WEIGHT TO GFS AND GEM FOR NEXT WEEKEND.  HENCE CAN
NOT AVOID KEEPING LOW POPS GOING FOR THE LATER PERIODS.  TEMPS WILL
WARM TO MORE SEASONAL NORMALS BY THE WEEKEND.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

QUIET AND VFR FOR MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. SOUTHERLY FLOW GRADUALLY
PICKS UP AHEAD OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS. MAY
SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING
TOO WIDESPREAD OR DENSE AS SOUTH WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT A
BIT STRONGER. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN LINE OF STORMS ARRIVES LATER
MONDAY AFTERNOON IN SC WI AND ARRIVING EARLY EVENING IN THE SE.
MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME PRE-FRONTAL DEVELOPMENT LATE MRNG/ERLY
AFTN BUT THE MAIN EVENT LOOKS TO BE FROM MID AFTERNOON IN THE SC
THROUGH EARLY EVENING INTO THE SE.

MARINE...HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING DUE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 10 PM CDT MONDAY FOR
     LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...REM
TONIGHT/MONDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...COLLAR
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MBK




000
FXUS63 KMKX 060205 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
905 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...

NO BIG CHANGES TO FORECAST EXCEPT TO ADD SOME PATCHY FOG INTO THE
LATE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW-LEVEL WINDS
DECOUPLING SOMEWHAT...AND EVEN THOUGH SOME TURBULENT MIXING JUST
ABOVE MODEST NEAR-SURFACE INVERSION WILL PREVENT ANY WIDESPREAD
FOG...COULD NOT RULE OUT SOME PATCHY FOG. ANY FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE
WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO OF SUNRISE. LOOKING AT TREND OF LATEST HRRR
AND PREVIOUS NAM RUNS OF BRINGING A LEAD BAND OF DYING CONVECTION
FROM STORMS...CURRENTLY OVER MINNESOTA BACK TO SE SOUTH
DAKOTA...ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN IN THE MID TO LATE MORNING
HOURS. NEXT SHIFT WILL HAVE TO ASSESS THE FULL 00Z DATA SET TO SEE
IF THERE WILL BE A NEED TO BRING SOME POPS INTO THE AREA IN THE
MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...

EXCEPT FOR LOW CHANCE FOR SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE LAST FEW
HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE...STILL LOOKING AT TREND OF LATEST HRRR AND
PREVIOUS NAM RUNS OF BRINGING A LEAD BAND OF DYING CONVECTION
ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN IN THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS. WILL
AWAIT A LOOK AT COMPLETE 00Z DATA SET TO SEE IF THERE IS A NEED TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS INITIAL BAND IN THE 06Z TAFS. 12Z GUIDANCE WAS
SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR SUB-1000 FT CIGS ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT.
WILL AWAIT FULL DATA SET TO SEE IF THIS TREND CONTINUES.

&&

.MARINE...

LATEST SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE IS SUPPORTING CURRENT FORECAST TREND
OF SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING THROUGH THE MORNING...AND THUS WILL
LEAVE TIMING OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS IS. PRIOR TO WINDS PICKING
UP...COULD SEE SOME HAZE/FOG THAT REDUCES VSBYS UNDER 5
MILES...AND POSSIBLY SOME PATCHES OF DENSE FOG.

&&

.BEACHES...

THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A HIGH SWIM RISK FOR THE BEACHES OF
SHEBOYGAN AND OZAUKEE COUNTIES FROM LATE TOMORROW MORNING INTO
MONDAY EVENING. STRENGTHENING SOUTH WINDS IN THE TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE
3 TO 5 FOOT WAVES AND LIFE-THREATENING CURRENTS...ESPECIALLY ON
SOUTH-FACING BEACHES AND NEAR PIERS AND BREAKWALLS. NEXT SHIFT
WILL HAVE TO ASSESS LATEST GUIDANCE TO SEE IF A BEACH HAZARD
STATEMENT WILL BE NEEDED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015/

TONIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.

WEAK MID LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH BROAD LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
REGIME IN PLACE. WARM AND INCREASINGLY MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW SETTING
UP AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS. LLJ AND SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY
WILL KEEP THE STORMS WELL TO OUR WEST THIS PERIOD. DIURNALLY DRIVEN
CU WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
ARRIVING AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON.

MONDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

A WARM AND HUMID DAY IS SETTING UP AS SSW WINDS BECOME GUSTY. 925
TEMPS OFF THE NAM REACH LEVELS THAT WOULD SUPPORT A FEW LOWER 90S IN
PARTS OF THE EAST. OTHER MODELS NOT QUITE AS AGGRESSIVE AND SOME
CONCERN ABOUT LINGERING DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM CONVECTION TO OUR WEST.
SO WON/T GO QUITE THAT HIGH BUT WILL HAVE PLENTY OF MID/UPPER 80S
GOING. WESTERLY 500 MILLIBAR FLOW INCREASES WITH SHORTWAVE PROGGD
INTO WRN WI DURG THE AFTN. INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE PLENTIFUL. 12Z
NAM SOUNDINGS SUPPORT CAPES TO NEAR 3000 J/KG IN MSN DURG THE AFTN
WHILE THE 12Z GFS HAS INCREASED FROM THE 6Z RUN...WITH CAPES AROUND
1000 J/KG. IF SUN IS AMPLE THINK WE CAN HIT AT LEAST SOMEWHERE
CLOSER TO THE MIDDLE GROUND. SO MID LEVEL FORCING WILL BE ARRIVING
IN PRIME TIME. CWASP NUMBERS HIGHEST ON THE NAM...IN THE LOW
70S...WHILE OTHER MODELS LOWER. 0-6KM SHEAR IS OK BUT NOT AT THE
SWEET SPOT OF AOA 40 KTS. HOWEVER 0-1KM SHEAR IS 20-25 KNOTS WHICH
IS FAVORABLE. SOME CONCERN OVER THE PROGGD VERY LOW MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND THE ORIENTATION OF 850 JET CORE SHOWING MORE OF AN
ENTRANCE REGION PLACEMENT AT 00Z. MAIN UPPER JET IS PROGGD TO OUR
NORTH BUT SOME INCREASE IN UPPER DIVERGENCE NOTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON. 12Z ECMWF DEVELOPS A STRONGER LOW INTO CNTRL WI BY 00Z
WITH OTHER SOLUTIONS A BIT WEAKER BUT BEST LOW LEVEL FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE JUST WEST OF CWA BUT DRAWING CLOSER DURING PEAK HEATING.
WILL HAVE HIGHEST POPS ALIGNED SIMILARLY TO WHAT WE HAVE GOING WITH
BIGGEST POPS IN THE NW AND SMALLEST CHANCES IN THE SOUTHEAST. 4KM
SPC WRF DOES SUGGEST A SCENARIO SIMILAR TO THE 12Z NAM WITH SOME
DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE AFTERNOON.
SPC HAS UPGRADED TO SLIGHT RISK FOR MUCH OF CWA AND THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE ESP GIVEN THE POTENTIAL INSTABILITY AND BETTER FORCING
PARAMETERS ARRIVING AT PEAK TIME OF DAY INTO ESP SC WI. GIVEN PROGGD
POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WOULD NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE HAIL
DEPARTMENT...WHICH CIPS ANALOGS SUPPORT...WITH WIND EVENT MORE
LIKELY GIVEN FAVORABLE LOWER LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND PRETTY DECENT
DOWNDRAFT CAPES PROGGD.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - HIGH
TRENDING TOWARD MEDIUM.

WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY A 3 TO 5 HOUR PERIOD OF CATEGORICAL POPS
ACROSS CWA THRU 06Z TUES AS STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS SRN WI.
SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON CARRYING AXIS OF HIGHER
LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE ACROSS SRN WI ASSOCIATED WITH UPSTREAM
SHORT WAVE TROF CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS WY/CO AREA.  PLENTY OF
MOISTURE IN PLACE AS PWAT VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 2 INCHES...WHICH
IS ABOUT 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS FOR EARLY JULY. MODERATE
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING IN THE LOW LEVELS AS EXPECTED WITH FRONT
WILL EXTEND UP TO ABOUT 10K FEET INCREASING THE LIKLIHOOD FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION.  SFC DEWPT POOLING LIKELY TO INCREASE INTO
THE LOW 70S AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON MONDAY.  HOWEVER STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THERMAL PROFILE ALOFT AND AMOUNT OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH.  BULK SHEAR WILL BE
MODEATE...SUPPORTING MULTICELLS AND PERHAPS A FEW SUPERCELLS.   WITH
SFC FRONT MOVING THRU DURING BETTER TIME OF THE DAY...SPC UPGRADE TO
SLIGHT RISK IN WRN CWA UNDERSTANDABLE.

STORMS END LATER MONDAY NIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT.
DRIER...LESS HUMID AIR SPREADS RAPIDLY ACROSS SRN WI LATER MON NIGHT
AND CONTINUES ON TUE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT SITUATED SOUTH OF WI ON
WEDNESDAY MAY BRUSH THE AREA WITH SOME MID-HIGH CLOUDS...BUT AT THIS
TIME...EXPECTING THE DRIER AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE TO KEEP PRECIP
SOUTH OF THE STATELINE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM
TRENDING LOW.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAVING ISSUES LATE IN THE WEEK AS HIGHER
AMPLITUDE PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO MORE PROGRESSIVE...ZONAL SCENARIO.
WHILE DEEP...CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHERN HUDSON BAY SHIFTS SLIGHTLY
NORTHWARD...SECOND WEAKER CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHWEST CONUS IS
EXPECTED TO FURTHER WEAKEN AND GET NUDGED NORTHEAST AHEAD OF
APPROACHING ERN PACIFIC TROF.  GUIDANCE HAVING ISSUES WITH TIMING
AND STRENGTH OF AMOUNT OF RIDGING AFFECTING NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST LATE IN THE WEEK...AND ITS AFFECT ON FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRAPED ACROSS THE CENTRAL US EAST INTO THE OH VALLEY.  GFS STILL
BULLISH ON STRONGER...COMPACT SHORT WAVE AFFECTING SRN WI THU NGT
WHILE GEM MUCH SLOWER AND TAKES THIS WAVE WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON
FRIDAY.  ECMWF DOES CARRY WEAK MID-LEVEL WAVE ACROSS NRN IL THU NGT.
FOR NOW WL CONT TO CARRY SMALL POPS FOR THESE PERIODS.

FOR THE WEEKEND...DIFFERENCES CONTINUE AS ECMWF CONTINUES
DRIER...MORE ZONAL PATTERN ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WHILE GFS
TRENDING TO MORE SOUTHWEST STEERING FLOW.  THIS WOULD RESULT IN MORE
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS FOR THE REGION AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTS
NORTHWARD.  WPC BLENDED SOLUTION FAVORING DRIER ECMWF SOLUTION BUT
DOES GIVE SOME WEIGHT TO GFS AND GEM FOR NEXT WEEKEND.  HENCE CAN
NOT AVOID KEEPING LOW POPS GOING FOR THE LATER PERIODS.  TEMPS WILL
WARM TO MORE SEASONAL NORMALS BY THE WEEKEND.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

QUIET AND VFR FOR MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. SOUTHERLY FLOW GRADUALLY
PICKS UP AHEAD OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS. MAY
SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING
TOO WIDESPREAD OR DENSE AS SOUTH WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT A
BIT STRONGER. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN LINE OF STORMS ARRIVES LATER
MONDAY AFTERNOON IN SC WI AND ARRIVING EARLY EVENING IN THE SE.
MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME PRE-FRONTAL DEVELOPMENT LATE MRNG/ERLY
AFTN BUT THE MAIN EVENT LOOKS TO BE FROM MID AFTERNOON IN THE SC
THROUGH EARLY EVENING INTO THE SE.

MARINE...HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING DUE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 10 PM CDT MONDAY FOR
     LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...REM
TONIGHT/MONDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...COLLAR
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MBK





000
FXUS63 KMKX 060205 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
905 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...

NO BIG CHANGES TO FORECAST EXCEPT TO ADD SOME PATCHY FOG INTO THE
LATE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW-LEVEL WINDS
DECOUPLING SOMEWHAT...AND EVEN THOUGH SOME TURBULENT MIXING JUST
ABOVE MODEST NEAR-SURFACE INVERSION WILL PREVENT ANY WIDESPREAD
FOG...COULD NOT RULE OUT SOME PATCHY FOG. ANY FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE
WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO OF SUNRISE. LOOKING AT TREND OF LATEST HRRR
AND PREVIOUS NAM RUNS OF BRINGING A LEAD BAND OF DYING CONVECTION
FROM STORMS...CURRENTLY OVER MINNESOTA BACK TO SE SOUTH
DAKOTA...ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN IN THE MID TO LATE MORNING
HOURS. NEXT SHIFT WILL HAVE TO ASSESS THE FULL 00Z DATA SET TO SEE
IF THERE WILL BE A NEED TO BRING SOME POPS INTO THE AREA IN THE
MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...

EXCEPT FOR LOW CHANCE FOR SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE LAST FEW
HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE...STILL LOOKING AT TREND OF LATEST HRRR AND
PREVIOUS NAM RUNS OF BRINGING A LEAD BAND OF DYING CONVECTION
ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN IN THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS. WILL
AWAIT A LOOK AT COMPLETE 00Z DATA SET TO SEE IF THERE IS A NEED TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS INITIAL BAND IN THE 06Z TAFS. 12Z GUIDANCE WAS
SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR SUB-1000 FT CIGS ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT.
WILL AWAIT FULL DATA SET TO SEE IF THIS TREND CONTINUES.

&&

.MARINE...

LATEST SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE IS SUPPORTING CURRENT FORECAST TREND
OF SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING THROUGH THE MORNING...AND THUS WILL
LEAVE TIMING OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS IS. PRIOR TO WINDS PICKING
UP...COULD SEE SOME HAZE/FOG THAT REDUCES VSBYS UNDER 5
MILES...AND POSSIBLY SOME PATCHES OF DENSE FOG.

&&

.BEACHES...

THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A HIGH SWIM RISK FOR THE BEACHES OF
SHEBOYGAN AND OZAUKEE COUNTIES FROM LATE TOMORROW MORNING INTO
MONDAY EVENING. STRENGTHENING SOUTH WINDS IN THE TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE
3 TO 5 FOOT WAVES AND LIFE-THREATENING CURRENTS...ESPECIALLY ON
SOUTH-FACING BEACHES AND NEAR PIERS AND BREAKWALLS. NEXT SHIFT
WILL HAVE TO ASSESS LATEST GUIDANCE TO SEE IF A BEACH HAZARD
STATEMENT WILL BE NEEDED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015/

TONIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.

WEAK MID LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH BROAD LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
REGIME IN PLACE. WARM AND INCREASINGLY MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW SETTING
UP AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS. LLJ AND SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY
WILL KEEP THE STORMS WELL TO OUR WEST THIS PERIOD. DIURNALLY DRIVEN
CU WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
ARRIVING AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON.

MONDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

A WARM AND HUMID DAY IS SETTING UP AS SSW WINDS BECOME GUSTY. 925
TEMPS OFF THE NAM REACH LEVELS THAT WOULD SUPPORT A FEW LOWER 90S IN
PARTS OF THE EAST. OTHER MODELS NOT QUITE AS AGGRESSIVE AND SOME
CONCERN ABOUT LINGERING DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM CONVECTION TO OUR WEST.
SO WON/T GO QUITE THAT HIGH BUT WILL HAVE PLENTY OF MID/UPPER 80S
GOING. WESTERLY 500 MILLIBAR FLOW INCREASES WITH SHORTWAVE PROGGD
INTO WRN WI DURG THE AFTN. INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE PLENTIFUL. 12Z
NAM SOUNDINGS SUPPORT CAPES TO NEAR 3000 J/KG IN MSN DURG THE AFTN
WHILE THE 12Z GFS HAS INCREASED FROM THE 6Z RUN...WITH CAPES AROUND
1000 J/KG. IF SUN IS AMPLE THINK WE CAN HIT AT LEAST SOMEWHERE
CLOSER TO THE MIDDLE GROUND. SO MID LEVEL FORCING WILL BE ARRIVING
IN PRIME TIME. CWASP NUMBERS HIGHEST ON THE NAM...IN THE LOW
70S...WHILE OTHER MODELS LOWER. 0-6KM SHEAR IS OK BUT NOT AT THE
SWEET SPOT OF AOA 40 KTS. HOWEVER 0-1KM SHEAR IS 20-25 KNOTS WHICH
IS FAVORABLE. SOME CONCERN OVER THE PROGGD VERY LOW MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND THE ORIENTATION OF 850 JET CORE SHOWING MORE OF AN
ENTRANCE REGION PLACEMENT AT 00Z. MAIN UPPER JET IS PROGGD TO OUR
NORTH BUT SOME INCREASE IN UPPER DIVERGENCE NOTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON. 12Z ECMWF DEVELOPS A STRONGER LOW INTO CNTRL WI BY 00Z
WITH OTHER SOLUTIONS A BIT WEAKER BUT BEST LOW LEVEL FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE JUST WEST OF CWA BUT DRAWING CLOSER DURING PEAK HEATING.
WILL HAVE HIGHEST POPS ALIGNED SIMILARLY TO WHAT WE HAVE GOING WITH
BIGGEST POPS IN THE NW AND SMALLEST CHANCES IN THE SOUTHEAST. 4KM
SPC WRF DOES SUGGEST A SCENARIO SIMILAR TO THE 12Z NAM WITH SOME
DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE AFTERNOON.
SPC HAS UPGRADED TO SLIGHT RISK FOR MUCH OF CWA AND THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE ESP GIVEN THE POTENTIAL INSTABILITY AND BETTER FORCING
PARAMETERS ARRIVING AT PEAK TIME OF DAY INTO ESP SC WI. GIVEN PROGGD
POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WOULD NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE HAIL
DEPARTMENT...WHICH CIPS ANALOGS SUPPORT...WITH WIND EVENT MORE
LIKELY GIVEN FAVORABLE LOWER LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND PRETTY DECENT
DOWNDRAFT CAPES PROGGD.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - HIGH
TRENDING TOWARD MEDIUM.

WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY A 3 TO 5 HOUR PERIOD OF CATEGORICAL POPS
ACROSS CWA THRU 06Z TUES AS STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS SRN WI.
SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON CARRYING AXIS OF HIGHER
LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE ACROSS SRN WI ASSOCIATED WITH UPSTREAM
SHORT WAVE TROF CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS WY/CO AREA.  PLENTY OF
MOISTURE IN PLACE AS PWAT VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 2 INCHES...WHICH
IS ABOUT 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS FOR EARLY JULY. MODERATE
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING IN THE LOW LEVELS AS EXPECTED WITH FRONT
WILL EXTEND UP TO ABOUT 10K FEET INCREASING THE LIKLIHOOD FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION.  SFC DEWPT POOLING LIKELY TO INCREASE INTO
THE LOW 70S AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON MONDAY.  HOWEVER STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THERMAL PROFILE ALOFT AND AMOUNT OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH.  BULK SHEAR WILL BE
MODEATE...SUPPORTING MULTICELLS AND PERHAPS A FEW SUPERCELLS.   WITH
SFC FRONT MOVING THRU DURING BETTER TIME OF THE DAY...SPC UPGRADE TO
SLIGHT RISK IN WRN CWA UNDERSTANDABLE.

STORMS END LATER MONDAY NIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT.
DRIER...LESS HUMID AIR SPREADS RAPIDLY ACROSS SRN WI LATER MON NIGHT
AND CONTINUES ON TUE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT SITUATED SOUTH OF WI ON
WEDNESDAY MAY BRUSH THE AREA WITH SOME MID-HIGH CLOUDS...BUT AT THIS
TIME...EXPECTING THE DRIER AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE TO KEEP PRECIP
SOUTH OF THE STATELINE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM
TRENDING LOW.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAVING ISSUES LATE IN THE WEEK AS HIGHER
AMPLITUDE PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO MORE PROGRESSIVE...ZONAL SCENARIO.
WHILE DEEP...CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHERN HUDSON BAY SHIFTS SLIGHTLY
NORTHWARD...SECOND WEAKER CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHWEST CONUS IS
EXPECTED TO FURTHER WEAKEN AND GET NUDGED NORTHEAST AHEAD OF
APPROACHING ERN PACIFIC TROF.  GUIDANCE HAVING ISSUES WITH TIMING
AND STRENGTH OF AMOUNT OF RIDGING AFFECTING NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST LATE IN THE WEEK...AND ITS AFFECT ON FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRAPED ACROSS THE CENTRAL US EAST INTO THE OH VALLEY.  GFS STILL
BULLISH ON STRONGER...COMPACT SHORT WAVE AFFECTING SRN WI THU NGT
WHILE GEM MUCH SLOWER AND TAKES THIS WAVE WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON
FRIDAY.  ECMWF DOES CARRY WEAK MID-LEVEL WAVE ACROSS NRN IL THU NGT.
FOR NOW WL CONT TO CARRY SMALL POPS FOR THESE PERIODS.

FOR THE WEEKEND...DIFFERENCES CONTINUE AS ECMWF CONTINUES
DRIER...MORE ZONAL PATTERN ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WHILE GFS
TRENDING TO MORE SOUTHWEST STEERING FLOW.  THIS WOULD RESULT IN MORE
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS FOR THE REGION AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTS
NORTHWARD.  WPC BLENDED SOLUTION FAVORING DRIER ECMWF SOLUTION BUT
DOES GIVE SOME WEIGHT TO GFS AND GEM FOR NEXT WEEKEND.  HENCE CAN
NOT AVOID KEEPING LOW POPS GOING FOR THE LATER PERIODS.  TEMPS WILL
WARM TO MORE SEASONAL NORMALS BY THE WEEKEND.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

QUIET AND VFR FOR MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. SOUTHERLY FLOW GRADUALLY
PICKS UP AHEAD OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS. MAY
SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING
TOO WIDESPREAD OR DENSE AS SOUTH WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT A
BIT STRONGER. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN LINE OF STORMS ARRIVES LATER
MONDAY AFTERNOON IN SC WI AND ARRIVING EARLY EVENING IN THE SE.
MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME PRE-FRONTAL DEVELOPMENT LATE MRNG/ERLY
AFTN BUT THE MAIN EVENT LOOKS TO BE FROM MID AFTERNOON IN THE SC
THROUGH EARLY EVENING INTO THE SE.

MARINE...HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING DUE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 10 PM CDT MONDAY FOR
     LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...REM
TONIGHT/MONDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...COLLAR
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MBK




000
FXUS63 KMKX 052031
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
330 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.TONIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.

WEAK MID LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH BROAD LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
REGIME IN PLACE. WARM AND INCREASINGLY MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW SETTING
UP AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS. LLJ AND SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY
WILL KEEP THE STORMS WELL TO OUR WEST THIS PERIOD. DIURNALLY DRIVEN
CU WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
ARRIVING AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON.

.MONDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

A WARM AND HUMID DAY IS SETTING UP AS SSW WINDS BECOME GUSTY. 925
TEMPS OFF THE NAM REACH LEVELS THAT WOULD SUPPORT A FEW LOWER 90S IN
PARTS OF THE EAST. OTHER MODELS NOT QUITE AS AGGRESSIVE AND SOME
CONCERN ABOUT LINGERING DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM CONVECTION TO OUR WEST.
SO WON/T GO QUITE THAT HIGH BUT WILL HAVE PLENTY OF MID/UPPER 80S
GOING. WESTERLY 500 MILLIBAR FLOW INCREASES WITH SHORTWAVE PROGGD
INTO WRN WI DURG THE AFTN. INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE PLENTIFUL. 12Z
NAM SOUNDINGS SUPPORT CAPES TO NEAR 3000 J/KG IN MSN DURG THE AFTN
WHILE THE 12Z GFS HAS INCREASED FROM THE 6Z RUN...WITH CAPES AROUND
1000 J/KG. IF SUN IS AMPLE THINK WE CAN HIT AT LEAST SOMEWHERE
CLOSER TO THE MIDDLE GROUND. SO MID LEVEL FORCING WILL BE ARRIVING
IN PRIME TIME. CWASP NUMBERS HIGHEST ON THE NAM...IN THE LOW
70S...WHILE OTHER MODELS LOWER. 0-6KM SHEAR IS OK BUT NOT AT THE
SWEET SPOT OF AOA 40 KTS. HOWEVER 0-1KM SHEAR IS 20-25 KNOTS WHICH
IS FAVORABLE. SOME CONCERN OVER THE PROGGD VERY LOW MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND THE ORIENTATION OF 850 JET CORE SHOWING MORE OF AN
ENTRANCE REGION PLACEMENT AT 00Z. MAIN UPPER JET IS PROGGD TO OUR
NORTH BUT SOME INCREASE IN UPPER DIVERGENCE NOTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON. 12Z ECMWF DEVELOPS A STRONGER LOW INTO CNTRL WI BY 00Z
WITH OTHER SOLUTIONS A BIT WEAKER BUT BEST LOW LEVEL FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE JUST WEST OF CWA BUT DRAWING CLOSER DURING PEAK HEATING.
WILL HAVE HIGHEST POPS ALIGNED SIMILARLY TO WHAT WE HAVE GOING WITH
BIGGEST POPS IN THE NW AND SMALLEST CHANCES IN THE SOUTHEAST. 4KM
SPC WRF DOES SUGGEST A SCENARIO SIMILAR TO THE 12Z NAM WITH SOME
DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE AFTERNOON.
SPC HAS UPGRADED TO SLIGHT RISK FOR MUCH OF CWA AND THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE ESP GIVEN THE POTENTIAL INSTABILITY AND BETTER FORCING
PARAMETERS ARRIVING AT PEAK TIME OF DAY INTO ESP SC WI. GIVEN PROGGD
POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WOULD NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE HAIL
DEPARTMENT...WHICH CIPS ANALOGS SUPPORT...WITH WIND EVENT MORE
LIKELY GIVEN FAVORABLE LOWER LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND PRETTY DECENT
DOWNDRAFT CAPES PROGGD.

.MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - HIGH
TRENDING TOWARD MEDIUM.

WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY A 3 TO 5 HOUR PERIOD OF CATEGORICAL POPS
ACROSS CWA THRU 06Z TUES AS STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS SRN WI.
SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON CARRYING AXIS OF HIGHER
LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE ACROSS SRN WI ASSOCIATED WITH UPSTREAM
SHORT WAVE TROF CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS WY/CO AREA.  PLENTY OF
MOISTURE IN PLACE AS PWAT VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 2 INCHES...WHICH
IS ABOUT 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS FOR EARLY JULY. MODERATE
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING IN THE LOW LEVELS AS EXPECTED WITH FRONT
WILL EXTEND UP TO ABOUT 10K FEET INCREASING THE LIKLIHOOD FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION.  SFC DEWPT POOLING LIKELY TO INCREASE INTO
THE LOW 70S AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON MONDAY.  HOWEVER STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THERMAL PROFILE ALOFT AND AMOUNT OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH.  BULK SHEAR WILL BE
MODEATE...SUPPORTING MULTICELLS AND PERHAPS A FEW SUPERCELLS.   WITH
SFC FRONT MOVING THRU DURING BETTER TIME OF THE DAY...SPC UPGRADE TO
SLIGHT RISK IN WRN CWA UNDERSTANDABLE.

STORMS END LATER MONDAY NIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT.
DRIER...LESS HUMID AIR SPREADS RAPIDLY ACROSS SRN WI LATER MON NIGHT
AND CONTINUES ON TUE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT SITUATED SOUTH OF WI ON
WEDNESDAY MAY BRUSH THE AREA WITH SOME MID-HIGH CLOUDS...BUT AT THIS
TIME...EXPECTING THE DRIER AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE TO KEEP PRECIP
SOUTH OF THE STATELINE.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM
TRENDING LOW.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAVING ISSUES LATE IN THE WEEK AS HIGHER
AMPLITUDE PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO MORE PROGRESSIVE...ZONAL SCENARIO.
WHILE DEEP...CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHERN HUDSON BAY SHIFTS SLIGHTLY
NORTHWARD...SECOND WEAKER CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHWEST CONUS IS
EXPECTED TO FURTHER WEAKEN AND GET NUDGED NORTHEAST AHEAD OF
APPROACHING ERN PACIFIC TROF.  GUIDANCE HAVING ISSUES WITH TIMING
AND STRENGTH OF AMOUNT OF RIDGING AFFECTING NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST LATE IN THE WEEK...AND ITS AFFECT ON FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRAPED ACROSS THE CENTRAL US EAST INTO THE OH VALLEY.  GFS STILL
BULLISH ON STRONGER...COMPACT SHORT WAVE AFFECTING SRN WI THU NGT
WHILE GEM MUCH SLOWER AND TAKES THIS WAVE WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON
FRIDAY.  ECMWF DOES CARRY WEAK MID-LEVEL WAVE ACROSS NRN IL THU NGT.
FOR NOW WL CONT TO CARRY SMALL POPS FOR THESE PERIODS.

FOR THE WEEKEND...DIFFERENCES CONTINUE AS ECMWF CONTINUES
DRIER...MORE ZONAL PATTERN ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WHILE GFS
TRENDING TO MORE SOUTHWEST STEERING FLOW.  THIS WOULD RESULT IN MORE
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS FOR THE REGION AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTS
NORTHWARD.  WPC BLENDED SOLUTION FAVORING DRIER ECMWF SOLUTION BUT
DOES GIVE SOME WEIGHT TO GFS AND GEM FOR NEXT WEEKEND.  HENCE CAN
NOT AVOID KEEPING LOW POPS GOING FOR THE LATER PERIODS.  TEMPS WILL
WARM TO MORE SEASONAL NORMALS BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

QUIET AND VFR FOR MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. SOUTHERLY FLOW GRADUALLY
PICKS UP AHEAD OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS. MAY
SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING
TOO WIDESPREAD OR DENSE AS SOUTH WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT A
BIT STRONGER. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN LINE OF STORMS ARRIVES LATER
MONDAY AFTERNOON IN SC WI AND ARRIVING EARLY EVENING IN THE SE.
MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME PRE-FRONTAL DEVELOPMENT LATE MRNG/ERLY
AFTN BUT THE MAIN EVENT LOOKS TO BE FROM MID AFTERNOON IN THE SC
THROUGH EARLY EVENING INTO THE SE.

&&

.MARINE...HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING DUE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LMZ643>646 17Z/MON TO 03Z/TUE.

$$
TONIGHT AND MONDAY/AVIATION...PC
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MBK




000
FXUS63 KMKX 052031
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
330 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.TONIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.

WEAK MID LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH BROAD LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
REGIME IN PLACE. WARM AND INCREASINGLY MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW SETTING
UP AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS. LLJ AND SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY
WILL KEEP THE STORMS WELL TO OUR WEST THIS PERIOD. DIURNALLY DRIVEN
CU WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
ARRIVING AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON.

.MONDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

A WARM AND HUMID DAY IS SETTING UP AS SSW WINDS BECOME GUSTY. 925
TEMPS OFF THE NAM REACH LEVELS THAT WOULD SUPPORT A FEW LOWER 90S IN
PARTS OF THE EAST. OTHER MODELS NOT QUITE AS AGGRESSIVE AND SOME
CONCERN ABOUT LINGERING DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM CONVECTION TO OUR WEST.
SO WON/T GO QUITE THAT HIGH BUT WILL HAVE PLENTY OF MID/UPPER 80S
GOING. WESTERLY 500 MILLIBAR FLOW INCREASES WITH SHORTWAVE PROGGD
INTO WRN WI DURG THE AFTN. INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE PLENTIFUL. 12Z
NAM SOUNDINGS SUPPORT CAPES TO NEAR 3000 J/KG IN MSN DURG THE AFTN
WHILE THE 12Z GFS HAS INCREASED FROM THE 6Z RUN...WITH CAPES AROUND
1000 J/KG. IF SUN IS AMPLE THINK WE CAN HIT AT LEAST SOMEWHERE
CLOSER TO THE MIDDLE GROUND. SO MID LEVEL FORCING WILL BE ARRIVING
IN PRIME TIME. CWASP NUMBERS HIGHEST ON THE NAM...IN THE LOW
70S...WHILE OTHER MODELS LOWER. 0-6KM SHEAR IS OK BUT NOT AT THE
SWEET SPOT OF AOA 40 KTS. HOWEVER 0-1KM SHEAR IS 20-25 KNOTS WHICH
IS FAVORABLE. SOME CONCERN OVER THE PROGGD VERY LOW MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND THE ORIENTATION OF 850 JET CORE SHOWING MORE OF AN
ENTRANCE REGION PLACEMENT AT 00Z. MAIN UPPER JET IS PROGGD TO OUR
NORTH BUT SOME INCREASE IN UPPER DIVERGENCE NOTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON. 12Z ECMWF DEVELOPS A STRONGER LOW INTO CNTRL WI BY 00Z
WITH OTHER SOLUTIONS A BIT WEAKER BUT BEST LOW LEVEL FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE JUST WEST OF CWA BUT DRAWING CLOSER DURING PEAK HEATING.
WILL HAVE HIGHEST POPS ALIGNED SIMILARLY TO WHAT WE HAVE GOING WITH
BIGGEST POPS IN THE NW AND SMALLEST CHANCES IN THE SOUTHEAST. 4KM
SPC WRF DOES SUGGEST A SCENARIO SIMILAR TO THE 12Z NAM WITH SOME
DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE AFTERNOON.
SPC HAS UPGRADED TO SLIGHT RISK FOR MUCH OF CWA AND THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE ESP GIVEN THE POTENTIAL INSTABILITY AND BETTER FORCING
PARAMETERS ARRIVING AT PEAK TIME OF DAY INTO ESP SC WI. GIVEN PROGGD
POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WOULD NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE HAIL
DEPARTMENT...WHICH CIPS ANALOGS SUPPORT...WITH WIND EVENT MORE
LIKELY GIVEN FAVORABLE LOWER LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND PRETTY DECENT
DOWNDRAFT CAPES PROGGD.

.MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - HIGH
TRENDING TOWARD MEDIUM.

WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY A 3 TO 5 HOUR PERIOD OF CATEGORICAL POPS
ACROSS CWA THRU 06Z TUES AS STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS SRN WI.
SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON CARRYING AXIS OF HIGHER
LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE ACROSS SRN WI ASSOCIATED WITH UPSTREAM
SHORT WAVE TROF CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS WY/CO AREA.  PLENTY OF
MOISTURE IN PLACE AS PWAT VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 2 INCHES...WHICH
IS ABOUT 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS FOR EARLY JULY. MODERATE
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING IN THE LOW LEVELS AS EXPECTED WITH FRONT
WILL EXTEND UP TO ABOUT 10K FEET INCREASING THE LIKLIHOOD FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION.  SFC DEWPT POOLING LIKELY TO INCREASE INTO
THE LOW 70S AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON MONDAY.  HOWEVER STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THERMAL PROFILE ALOFT AND AMOUNT OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH.  BULK SHEAR WILL BE
MODEATE...SUPPORTING MULTICELLS AND PERHAPS A FEW SUPERCELLS.   WITH
SFC FRONT MOVING THRU DURING BETTER TIME OF THE DAY...SPC UPGRADE TO
SLIGHT RISK IN WRN CWA UNDERSTANDABLE.

STORMS END LATER MONDAY NIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT.
DRIER...LESS HUMID AIR SPREADS RAPIDLY ACROSS SRN WI LATER MON NIGHT
AND CONTINUES ON TUE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT SITUATED SOUTH OF WI ON
WEDNESDAY MAY BRUSH THE AREA WITH SOME MID-HIGH CLOUDS...BUT AT THIS
TIME...EXPECTING THE DRIER AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE TO KEEP PRECIP
SOUTH OF THE STATELINE.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM
TRENDING LOW.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAVING ISSUES LATE IN THE WEEK AS HIGHER
AMPLITUDE PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO MORE PROGRESSIVE...ZONAL SCENARIO.
WHILE DEEP...CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHERN HUDSON BAY SHIFTS SLIGHTLY
NORTHWARD...SECOND WEAKER CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHWEST CONUS IS
EXPECTED TO FURTHER WEAKEN AND GET NUDGED NORTHEAST AHEAD OF
APPROACHING ERN PACIFIC TROF.  GUIDANCE HAVING ISSUES WITH TIMING
AND STRENGTH OF AMOUNT OF RIDGING AFFECTING NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST LATE IN THE WEEK...AND ITS AFFECT ON FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRAPED ACROSS THE CENTRAL US EAST INTO THE OH VALLEY.  GFS STILL
BULLISH ON STRONGER...COMPACT SHORT WAVE AFFECTING SRN WI THU NGT
WHILE GEM MUCH SLOWER AND TAKES THIS WAVE WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON
FRIDAY.  ECMWF DOES CARRY WEAK MID-LEVEL WAVE ACROSS NRN IL THU NGT.
FOR NOW WL CONT TO CARRY SMALL POPS FOR THESE PERIODS.

FOR THE WEEKEND...DIFFERENCES CONTINUE AS ECMWF CONTINUES
DRIER...MORE ZONAL PATTERN ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WHILE GFS
TRENDING TO MORE SOUTHWEST STEERING FLOW.  THIS WOULD RESULT IN MORE
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS FOR THE REGION AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTS
NORTHWARD.  WPC BLENDED SOLUTION FAVORING DRIER ECMWF SOLUTION BUT
DOES GIVE SOME WEIGHT TO GFS AND GEM FOR NEXT WEEKEND.  HENCE CAN
NOT AVOID KEEPING LOW POPS GOING FOR THE LATER PERIODS.  TEMPS WILL
WARM TO MORE SEASONAL NORMALS BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

QUIET AND VFR FOR MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. SOUTHERLY FLOW GRADUALLY
PICKS UP AHEAD OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS. MAY
SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING
TOO WIDESPREAD OR DENSE AS SOUTH WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT A
BIT STRONGER. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN LINE OF STORMS ARRIVES LATER
MONDAY AFTERNOON IN SC WI AND ARRIVING EARLY EVENING IN THE SE.
MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME PRE-FRONTAL DEVELOPMENT LATE MRNG/ERLY
AFTN BUT THE MAIN EVENT LOOKS TO BE FROM MID AFTERNOON IN THE SC
THROUGH EARLY EVENING INTO THE SE.

&&

.MARINE...HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING DUE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LMZ643>646 17Z/MON TO 03Z/TUE.

$$
TONIGHT AND MONDAY/AVIATION...PC
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MBK





000
FXUS63 KMKX 051522
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1022 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...QUIET AND VFR FOR MUCH OF THIS PERIOD.
SOUTHERLY FLOW GRADUALLY PICKS UP AHEAD OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS. MAY SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP ONCE
AGAIN TONIGHT BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING TOO WIDESPREAD OR DENSE
AS SOUTH WINDS ALOFT WILL BE A BIT STRONGER. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE
MAIN LINE OF STORMS ARRIVES LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST
LIKELIHOOD MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME PRE-FRONTAL
DEVELOPMENT LATE MRNG/ERLY AFTN BUT THE MAIN EVENT LOOKS TO BE
MONDAY NIGHT.

PC

&&

.MARINE...SHORELINE WEB CAMS INDICATE LIGHT HAZE OVER THE NEARSHORE
WATERS EXTENDING INTO THE OPEN WATERS OF THE LAKE.  WINDS HAVE
ALREADY BEGUN TO TURN ONSHORE AND SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT.  RECENT MODIS IMAGERY MEASURED LAKE SFC
TEMPS IN THE LOWER 60S...WHICH WILL BE CLOSE TO EXPECTED SFC DEWPTS
TODAY.  HENCE PULLED FOG MENTION BUT THINK AREAS OF LIGHT HAZE WILL
CONTINUE.  TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD
FRONT AND INSOLATION WILL ALLOW GUSTY SOUTH WINDS TO AFFECT NEAR
SHORE AREA ON MONDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STILL LOOKING LIKELY.

MBK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

VERY WEAK 250 MB FLOW WITH A RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND TROUGH WELL
SOUTH.  LITTLE OR NO 700 MB UPWARD MOTION.

VERY WEAK 850/700 MB WARMING LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. 700 MB LEVELS
ARE DRY. 850 MB DEW POINTS INCREASE LATE TONIGHT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE A FAIRLY STRONG CAP ABOVE 850 MB WITH AN
EXTENSIVE DRY LAYER ABOVE.  THEREFORE THE 1000 JOULES/KG OF CAPE
MAINLY SOUTHWEST OF MADISON THIS AFTERNOON WILL NOT COME INTO PLAY.
ONLY A FEW FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS EXPECTED.

WITH THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE
OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY...THE LIGHT SOUTH FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THIS MORNING AND INCREASE SLOWLY. HRRR WIND GUST INCREASE TO
AROUND 15 MPH THIS AFTERNOON...AND AROUND 20 MPH ALONG LAKE
MICHIGAN. AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS TONIGHT WINDS SHOULD
NOT DECOUPLE MUCH...BUT STILL SHOULD BE MAINLY AROUND 10 MPH.
EXPECT A LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP BUT NOT PROGRESS AS MUCH INLAND.

SURFACE DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER 60S THIS MORNING AND
INCREASE TO THE MID 60S LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE STRONG CAP
MIXING WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED.

MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

MODELS REMAIN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. SHOULD BE A
GOOD INCREASE IN MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH THE GFS AND
NAM INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO AROUND 2-2.25 INCHES.
CAPE VALUES...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR...AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NOT
PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE. SOME STRONGER STORMS POSSIBLE THOUGH GIVEN
THE FRONT TIMING ALONG WITH RESPECTABLE LOWER LEVEL SHEAR AND
LAPSE RATES. SPC HAS MAINTAINED THE FORECAST AREA UNDER A MARGINAL
RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS. OVERALL...LOOKS LIKE A DECENT CHANCE FOR A
ROUND OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SUMMER STORMS...SO BUMPED POPS UP
SOME MORE.

STILL THINKING IT WILL BE A WARM DAY MONDAY...WITH 925 MB TEMPS OF
22-25C AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. MAIN CONCERN IS THAT
UPSTREAM CONVECTION FROM SUNDAY NIGHT MIGHT LIMP AND CLOUD THINGS
UP EARLY. SOME MODELS ALSO HAVE STORMS FIRING EARLIER IN THE DAY
BEFORE MAIN LINE OF STORM WITH FRONT MOVES IN. THOUGH THESE ARE
POSSIBILITIES...DO THINK THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SUN FOR FORECAST
HIGHS. LOOKS BREEZY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AS WELL AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

ANY LINGERING PRECIP SHOULD WIND DOWN IN THE SOUTHEAST BY EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING...WITH DRY WEATHER THEN EXPECTED THOUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY MORNING UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. HAVE SOME POPS IN FOR LATER
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AS MODELS SHOWING A COUPLE WAVES TO
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. NOT GREAT AGREEMENT IN WAVE PLACEMENT AND
TIMING BETWEEN MODELS...SO CHANCE POPS ARE SPREAD OUT THROUGH THIS
PERIOD.

MODELS HAVE AT LEAST COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH TEMPERATURE
TRENDS FOR THE EXTENDED. GENERALLY LOOKS LIKE BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK...WITH
TEMPS RETURNING TO AROUND NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. ELEVATED SMOKE LAYER FROM
THE CANADIAN FOREST FIRES WILL CONTINUE TODAY.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE A FAIRLY STRONG CAP ABOVE 850 MB WITH AN
EXTENSIVE DRY LAYER ABOVE. ONLY A FEW FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS EXPECTED.

WITH THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE
OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY...THE LIGHT SOUTH FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THIS MORNING AND INCREASE SLOWLY. HRRR WIND GUST INCREASE TO
AROUND 15 MPH THIS AFTERNOON...AND AROUND 20 MPH ALONG LAKE
MICHIGAN. AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS TONIGHT WINDS SHOULD
NOT DECOUPLE MUCH...BUT STILL SHOULD BE MAINLY AROUND 10 MPH.

MARINE...

WITH THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE
OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY...THE LIGHT SOUTH FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THIS MORNING AND INCREASE SLOWLY. SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WIND GUSTS
INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS TONIGHT WINDS SHOULD NOT DECREASE MUCH...BUT
STILL SHOULD BE MAINLY JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA THROUGH
TONIGHT...BUT MAY BE NEEDED MONDAY.

AS DEW POINTS RISE FOG MAY BECOME MORE OF AN ISSUE...SO WILL INCLUDE
PATCHY FOG FOR NOW TODAY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DDV





000
FXUS63 KMKX 051522
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1022 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...QUIET AND VFR FOR MUCH OF THIS PERIOD.
SOUTHERLY FLOW GRADUALLY PICKS UP AHEAD OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS. MAY SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP ONCE
AGAIN TONIGHT BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING TOO WIDESPREAD OR DENSE
AS SOUTH WINDS ALOFT WILL BE A BIT STRONGER. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE
MAIN LINE OF STORMS ARRIVES LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST
LIKELIHOOD MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME PRE-FRONTAL
DEVELOPMENT LATE MRNG/ERLY AFTN BUT THE MAIN EVENT LOOKS TO BE
MONDAY NIGHT.

PC

&&

.MARINE...SHORELINE WEB CAMS INDICATE LIGHT HAZE OVER THE NEARSHORE
WATERS EXTENDING INTO THE OPEN WATERS OF THE LAKE.  WINDS HAVE
ALREADY BEGUN TO TURN ONSHORE AND SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT.  RECENT MODIS IMAGERY MEASURED LAKE SFC
TEMPS IN THE LOWER 60S...WHICH WILL BE CLOSE TO EXPECTED SFC DEWPTS
TODAY.  HENCE PULLED FOG MENTION BUT THINK AREAS OF LIGHT HAZE WILL
CONTINUE.  TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD
FRONT AND INSOLATION WILL ALLOW GUSTY SOUTH WINDS TO AFFECT NEAR
SHORE AREA ON MONDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STILL LOOKING LIKELY.

MBK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

VERY WEAK 250 MB FLOW WITH A RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND TROUGH WELL
SOUTH.  LITTLE OR NO 700 MB UPWARD MOTION.

VERY WEAK 850/700 MB WARMING LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. 700 MB LEVELS
ARE DRY. 850 MB DEW POINTS INCREASE LATE TONIGHT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE A FAIRLY STRONG CAP ABOVE 850 MB WITH AN
EXTENSIVE DRY LAYER ABOVE.  THEREFORE THE 1000 JOULES/KG OF CAPE
MAINLY SOUTHWEST OF MADISON THIS AFTERNOON WILL NOT COME INTO PLAY.
ONLY A FEW FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS EXPECTED.

WITH THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE
OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY...THE LIGHT SOUTH FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THIS MORNING AND INCREASE SLOWLY. HRRR WIND GUST INCREASE TO
AROUND 15 MPH THIS AFTERNOON...AND AROUND 20 MPH ALONG LAKE
MICHIGAN. AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS TONIGHT WINDS SHOULD
NOT DECOUPLE MUCH...BUT STILL SHOULD BE MAINLY AROUND 10 MPH.
EXPECT A LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP BUT NOT PROGRESS AS MUCH INLAND.

SURFACE DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER 60S THIS MORNING AND
INCREASE TO THE MID 60S LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE STRONG CAP
MIXING WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED.

MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

MODELS REMAIN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. SHOULD BE A
GOOD INCREASE IN MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH THE GFS AND
NAM INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO AROUND 2-2.25 INCHES.
CAPE VALUES...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR...AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NOT
PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE. SOME STRONGER STORMS POSSIBLE THOUGH GIVEN
THE FRONT TIMING ALONG WITH RESPECTABLE LOWER LEVEL SHEAR AND
LAPSE RATES. SPC HAS MAINTAINED THE FORECAST AREA UNDER A MARGINAL
RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS. OVERALL...LOOKS LIKE A DECENT CHANCE FOR A
ROUND OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SUMMER STORMS...SO BUMPED POPS UP
SOME MORE.

STILL THINKING IT WILL BE A WARM DAY MONDAY...WITH 925 MB TEMPS OF
22-25C AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. MAIN CONCERN IS THAT
UPSTREAM CONVECTION FROM SUNDAY NIGHT MIGHT LIMP AND CLOUD THINGS
UP EARLY. SOME MODELS ALSO HAVE STORMS FIRING EARLIER IN THE DAY
BEFORE MAIN LINE OF STORM WITH FRONT MOVES IN. THOUGH THESE ARE
POSSIBILITIES...DO THINK THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SUN FOR FORECAST
HIGHS. LOOKS BREEZY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AS WELL AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

ANY LINGERING PRECIP SHOULD WIND DOWN IN THE SOUTHEAST BY EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING...WITH DRY WEATHER THEN EXPECTED THOUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY MORNING UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. HAVE SOME POPS IN FOR LATER
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AS MODELS SHOWING A COUPLE WAVES TO
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. NOT GREAT AGREEMENT IN WAVE PLACEMENT AND
TIMING BETWEEN MODELS...SO CHANCE POPS ARE SPREAD OUT THROUGH THIS
PERIOD.

MODELS HAVE AT LEAST COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH TEMPERATURE
TRENDS FOR THE EXTENDED. GENERALLY LOOKS LIKE BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK...WITH
TEMPS RETURNING TO AROUND NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. ELEVATED SMOKE LAYER FROM
THE CANADIAN FOREST FIRES WILL CONTINUE TODAY.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE A FAIRLY STRONG CAP ABOVE 850 MB WITH AN
EXTENSIVE DRY LAYER ABOVE. ONLY A FEW FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS EXPECTED.

WITH THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE
OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY...THE LIGHT SOUTH FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THIS MORNING AND INCREASE SLOWLY. HRRR WIND GUST INCREASE TO
AROUND 15 MPH THIS AFTERNOON...AND AROUND 20 MPH ALONG LAKE
MICHIGAN. AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS TONIGHT WINDS SHOULD
NOT DECOUPLE MUCH...BUT STILL SHOULD BE MAINLY AROUND 10 MPH.

MARINE...

WITH THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE
OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY...THE LIGHT SOUTH FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THIS MORNING AND INCREASE SLOWLY. SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WIND GUSTS
INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS TONIGHT WINDS SHOULD NOT DECREASE MUCH...BUT
STILL SHOULD BE MAINLY JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA THROUGH
TONIGHT...BUT MAY BE NEEDED MONDAY.

AS DEW POINTS RISE FOG MAY BECOME MORE OF AN ISSUE...SO WILL INCLUDE
PATCHY FOG FOR NOW TODAY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DDV




000
FXUS63 KMKX 051522
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1022 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...QUIET AND VFR FOR MUCH OF THIS PERIOD.
SOUTHERLY FLOW GRADUALLY PICKS UP AHEAD OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS. MAY SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP ONCE
AGAIN TONIGHT BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING TOO WIDESPREAD OR DENSE
AS SOUTH WINDS ALOFT WILL BE A BIT STRONGER. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE
MAIN LINE OF STORMS ARRIVES LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST
LIKELIHOOD MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME PRE-FRONTAL
DEVELOPMENT LATE MRNG/ERLY AFTN BUT THE MAIN EVENT LOOKS TO BE
MONDAY NIGHT.

PC

&&

.MARINE...SHORELINE WEB CAMS INDICATE LIGHT HAZE OVER THE NEARSHORE
WATERS EXTENDING INTO THE OPEN WATERS OF THE LAKE.  WINDS HAVE
ALREADY BEGUN TO TURN ONSHORE AND SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT.  RECENT MODIS IMAGERY MEASURED LAKE SFC
TEMPS IN THE LOWER 60S...WHICH WILL BE CLOSE TO EXPECTED SFC DEWPTS
TODAY.  HENCE PULLED FOG MENTION BUT THINK AREAS OF LIGHT HAZE WILL
CONTINUE.  TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD
FRONT AND INSOLATION WILL ALLOW GUSTY SOUTH WINDS TO AFFECT NEAR
SHORE AREA ON MONDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STILL LOOKING LIKELY.

MBK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

VERY WEAK 250 MB FLOW WITH A RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND TROUGH WELL
SOUTH.  LITTLE OR NO 700 MB UPWARD MOTION.

VERY WEAK 850/700 MB WARMING LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. 700 MB LEVELS
ARE DRY. 850 MB DEW POINTS INCREASE LATE TONIGHT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE A FAIRLY STRONG CAP ABOVE 850 MB WITH AN
EXTENSIVE DRY LAYER ABOVE.  THEREFORE THE 1000 JOULES/KG OF CAPE
MAINLY SOUTHWEST OF MADISON THIS AFTERNOON WILL NOT COME INTO PLAY.
ONLY A FEW FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS EXPECTED.

WITH THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE
OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY...THE LIGHT SOUTH FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THIS MORNING AND INCREASE SLOWLY. HRRR WIND GUST INCREASE TO
AROUND 15 MPH THIS AFTERNOON...AND AROUND 20 MPH ALONG LAKE
MICHIGAN. AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS TONIGHT WINDS SHOULD
NOT DECOUPLE MUCH...BUT STILL SHOULD BE MAINLY AROUND 10 MPH.
EXPECT A LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP BUT NOT PROGRESS AS MUCH INLAND.

SURFACE DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER 60S THIS MORNING AND
INCREASE TO THE MID 60S LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE STRONG CAP
MIXING WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED.

MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

MODELS REMAIN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. SHOULD BE A
GOOD INCREASE IN MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH THE GFS AND
NAM INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO AROUND 2-2.25 INCHES.
CAPE VALUES...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR...AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NOT
PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE. SOME STRONGER STORMS POSSIBLE THOUGH GIVEN
THE FRONT TIMING ALONG WITH RESPECTABLE LOWER LEVEL SHEAR AND
LAPSE RATES. SPC HAS MAINTAINED THE FORECAST AREA UNDER A MARGINAL
RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS. OVERALL...LOOKS LIKE A DECENT CHANCE FOR A
ROUND OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SUMMER STORMS...SO BUMPED POPS UP
SOME MORE.

STILL THINKING IT WILL BE A WARM DAY MONDAY...WITH 925 MB TEMPS OF
22-25C AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. MAIN CONCERN IS THAT
UPSTREAM CONVECTION FROM SUNDAY NIGHT MIGHT LIMP AND CLOUD THINGS
UP EARLY. SOME MODELS ALSO HAVE STORMS FIRING EARLIER IN THE DAY
BEFORE MAIN LINE OF STORM WITH FRONT MOVES IN. THOUGH THESE ARE
POSSIBILITIES...DO THINK THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SUN FOR FORECAST
HIGHS. LOOKS BREEZY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AS WELL AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

ANY LINGERING PRECIP SHOULD WIND DOWN IN THE SOUTHEAST BY EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING...WITH DRY WEATHER THEN EXPECTED THOUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY MORNING UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. HAVE SOME POPS IN FOR LATER
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AS MODELS SHOWING A COUPLE WAVES TO
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. NOT GREAT AGREEMENT IN WAVE PLACEMENT AND
TIMING BETWEEN MODELS...SO CHANCE POPS ARE SPREAD OUT THROUGH THIS
PERIOD.

MODELS HAVE AT LEAST COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH TEMPERATURE
TRENDS FOR THE EXTENDED. GENERALLY LOOKS LIKE BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK...WITH
TEMPS RETURNING TO AROUND NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. ELEVATED SMOKE LAYER FROM
THE CANADIAN FOREST FIRES WILL CONTINUE TODAY.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE A FAIRLY STRONG CAP ABOVE 850 MB WITH AN
EXTENSIVE DRY LAYER ABOVE. ONLY A FEW FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS EXPECTED.

WITH THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE
OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY...THE LIGHT SOUTH FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THIS MORNING AND INCREASE SLOWLY. HRRR WIND GUST INCREASE TO
AROUND 15 MPH THIS AFTERNOON...AND AROUND 20 MPH ALONG LAKE
MICHIGAN. AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS TONIGHT WINDS SHOULD
NOT DECOUPLE MUCH...BUT STILL SHOULD BE MAINLY AROUND 10 MPH.

MARINE...

WITH THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE
OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY...THE LIGHT SOUTH FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THIS MORNING AND INCREASE SLOWLY. SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WIND GUSTS
INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS TONIGHT WINDS SHOULD NOT DECREASE MUCH...BUT
STILL SHOULD BE MAINLY JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA THROUGH
TONIGHT...BUT MAY BE NEEDED MONDAY.

AS DEW POINTS RISE FOG MAY BECOME MORE OF AN ISSUE...SO WILL INCLUDE
PATCHY FOG FOR NOW TODAY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DDV





000
FXUS63 KMKX 051522
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1022 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...QUIET AND VFR FOR MUCH OF THIS PERIOD.
SOUTHERLY FLOW GRADUALLY PICKS UP AHEAD OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS. MAY SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP ONCE
AGAIN TONIGHT BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING TOO WIDESPREAD OR DENSE
AS SOUTH WINDS ALOFT WILL BE A BIT STRONGER. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE
MAIN LINE OF STORMS ARRIVES LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST
LIKELIHOOD MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME PRE-FRONTAL
DEVELOPMENT LATE MRNG/ERLY AFTN BUT THE MAIN EVENT LOOKS TO BE
MONDAY NIGHT.

PC

&&

.MARINE...SHORELINE WEB CAMS INDICATE LIGHT HAZE OVER THE NEARSHORE
WATERS EXTENDING INTO THE OPEN WATERS OF THE LAKE.  WINDS HAVE
ALREADY BEGUN TO TURN ONSHORE AND SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT.  RECENT MODIS IMAGERY MEASURED LAKE SFC
TEMPS IN THE LOWER 60S...WHICH WILL BE CLOSE TO EXPECTED SFC DEWPTS
TODAY.  HENCE PULLED FOG MENTION BUT THINK AREAS OF LIGHT HAZE WILL
CONTINUE.  TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD
FRONT AND INSOLATION WILL ALLOW GUSTY SOUTH WINDS TO AFFECT NEAR
SHORE AREA ON MONDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STILL LOOKING LIKELY.

MBK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

VERY WEAK 250 MB FLOW WITH A RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND TROUGH WELL
SOUTH.  LITTLE OR NO 700 MB UPWARD MOTION.

VERY WEAK 850/700 MB WARMING LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. 700 MB LEVELS
ARE DRY. 850 MB DEW POINTS INCREASE LATE TONIGHT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE A FAIRLY STRONG CAP ABOVE 850 MB WITH AN
EXTENSIVE DRY LAYER ABOVE.  THEREFORE THE 1000 JOULES/KG OF CAPE
MAINLY SOUTHWEST OF MADISON THIS AFTERNOON WILL NOT COME INTO PLAY.
ONLY A FEW FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS EXPECTED.

WITH THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE
OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY...THE LIGHT SOUTH FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THIS MORNING AND INCREASE SLOWLY. HRRR WIND GUST INCREASE TO
AROUND 15 MPH THIS AFTERNOON...AND AROUND 20 MPH ALONG LAKE
MICHIGAN. AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS TONIGHT WINDS SHOULD
NOT DECOUPLE MUCH...BUT STILL SHOULD BE MAINLY AROUND 10 MPH.
EXPECT A LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP BUT NOT PROGRESS AS MUCH INLAND.

SURFACE DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER 60S THIS MORNING AND
INCREASE TO THE MID 60S LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE STRONG CAP
MIXING WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED.

MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

MODELS REMAIN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. SHOULD BE A
GOOD INCREASE IN MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH THE GFS AND
NAM INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO AROUND 2-2.25 INCHES.
CAPE VALUES...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR...AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NOT
PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE. SOME STRONGER STORMS POSSIBLE THOUGH GIVEN
THE FRONT TIMING ALONG WITH RESPECTABLE LOWER LEVEL SHEAR AND
LAPSE RATES. SPC HAS MAINTAINED THE FORECAST AREA UNDER A MARGINAL
RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS. OVERALL...LOOKS LIKE A DECENT CHANCE FOR A
ROUND OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SUMMER STORMS...SO BUMPED POPS UP
SOME MORE.

STILL THINKING IT WILL BE A WARM DAY MONDAY...WITH 925 MB TEMPS OF
22-25C AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. MAIN CONCERN IS THAT
UPSTREAM CONVECTION FROM SUNDAY NIGHT MIGHT LIMP AND CLOUD THINGS
UP EARLY. SOME MODELS ALSO HAVE STORMS FIRING EARLIER IN THE DAY
BEFORE MAIN LINE OF STORM WITH FRONT MOVES IN. THOUGH THESE ARE
POSSIBILITIES...DO THINK THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SUN FOR FORECAST
HIGHS. LOOKS BREEZY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AS WELL AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

ANY LINGERING PRECIP SHOULD WIND DOWN IN THE SOUTHEAST BY EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING...WITH DRY WEATHER THEN EXPECTED THOUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY MORNING UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. HAVE SOME POPS IN FOR LATER
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AS MODELS SHOWING A COUPLE WAVES TO
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. NOT GREAT AGREEMENT IN WAVE PLACEMENT AND
TIMING BETWEEN MODELS...SO CHANCE POPS ARE SPREAD OUT THROUGH THIS
PERIOD.

MODELS HAVE AT LEAST COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH TEMPERATURE
TRENDS FOR THE EXTENDED. GENERALLY LOOKS LIKE BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK...WITH
TEMPS RETURNING TO AROUND NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. ELEVATED SMOKE LAYER FROM
THE CANADIAN FOREST FIRES WILL CONTINUE TODAY.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE A FAIRLY STRONG CAP ABOVE 850 MB WITH AN
EXTENSIVE DRY LAYER ABOVE. ONLY A FEW FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS EXPECTED.

WITH THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE
OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY...THE LIGHT SOUTH FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THIS MORNING AND INCREASE SLOWLY. HRRR WIND GUST INCREASE TO
AROUND 15 MPH THIS AFTERNOON...AND AROUND 20 MPH ALONG LAKE
MICHIGAN. AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS TONIGHT WINDS SHOULD
NOT DECOUPLE MUCH...BUT STILL SHOULD BE MAINLY AROUND 10 MPH.

MARINE...

WITH THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE
OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY...THE LIGHT SOUTH FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THIS MORNING AND INCREASE SLOWLY. SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WIND GUSTS
INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS TONIGHT WINDS SHOULD NOT DECREASE MUCH...BUT
STILL SHOULD BE MAINLY JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA THROUGH
TONIGHT...BUT MAY BE NEEDED MONDAY.

AS DEW POINTS RISE FOG MAY BECOME MORE OF AN ISSUE...SO WILL INCLUDE
PATCHY FOG FOR NOW TODAY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DDV




000
FXUS63 KMKX 050833
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
333 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

VERY WEAK 250 MB FLOW WITH A RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND TROUGH WELL
SOUTH.  LITTLE OR NO 700 MB UPWARD MOTION.

VERY WEAK 850/700 MB WARMING LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. 700 MB LEVELS
ARE DRY. 850 MB DEW POINTS INCREASE LATE TONIGHT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE A FAIRLY STRONG CAP ABOVE 850 MB WITH AN
EXTENSIVE DRY LAYER ABOVE.  THEREFORE THE 1000 JOULES/KG OF CAPE
MAINLY SOUTHWEST OF MADISON THIS AFTERNOON WILL NOT COME INTO PLAY.
ONLY A FEW FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS EXPECTED.

WITH THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE
OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY...THE LIGHT SOUTH FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THIS MORNING AND INCREASE SLOWLY. HRRR WIND GUST INCREASE TO
AROUND 15 MPH THIS AFTERNOON...AND AROUND 20 MPH ALONG LAKE
MICHIGAN. AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS TONIGHT WINDS SHOULD
NOT DECOUPLE MUCH...BUT STILL SHOULD BE MAINLY AROUND 10 MPH.
EXPECT A LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP BUT NOT PROGRESS AS MUCH INLAND.

SURFACE DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER 60S THIS MORNING AND
INCREASE TO THE MID 60S LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE STRONG CAP
MIXING WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED.

.MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

MODELS REMAIN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. SHOULD BE A
GOOD INCREASE IN MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH THE GFS AND
NAM INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO AROUND 2-2.25 INCHES.
CAPE VALUES...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR...AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NOT
PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE. SOME STRONGER STORMS POSSIBLE THOUGH GIVEN
THE FRONT TIMING ALONG WITH RESPECTABLE LOWER LEVEL SHEAR AND
LAPSE RATES. SPC HAS MAINTAINED THE FORECAST AREA UNDER A MARGINAL
RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS. OVERALL...LOOKS LIKE A DECENT CHANCE FOR A
ROUND OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SUMMER STORMS...SO BUMPED POPS UP
SOME MORE.

STILL THINKING IT WILL BE A WARM DAY MONDAY...WITH 925 MB TEMPS OF
22-25C AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. MAIN CONCERN IS THAT
UPSTREAM CONVECTION FROM SUNDAY NIGHT MIGHT LIMP AND CLOUD THINGS
UP EARLY. SOME MODELS ALSO HAVE STORMS FIRING EARLIER IN THE DAY
BEFORE MAIN LINE OF STORM WITH FRONT MOVES IN. THOUGH THESE ARE
POSSIBILITIES...DO THINK THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SUN FOR FORECAST
HIGHS. LOOKS BREEZY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AS WELL AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT.

.TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

ANY LINGERING PRECIP SHOULD WIND DOWN IN THE SOUTHEAST BY EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING...WITH DRY WEATHER THEN EXPECTED THOUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY MORNING UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. HAVE SOME POPS IN FOR LATER
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AS MODELS SHOWING A COUPLE WAVES TO
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. NOT GREAT AGREEMENT IN WAVE PLACEMENT AND
TIMING BETWEEN MODELS...SO CHANCE POPS ARE SPREAD OUT THROUGH THIS
PERIOD.

MODELS HAVE AT LEAST COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH TEMPERATURE
TRENDS FOR THE EXTENDED. GENERALLY LOOKS LIKE BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK...WITH
TEMPS RETURNING TO AROUND NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. ELEVATED SMOKE LAYER FROM
THE CANADIAN FOREST FIRES WILL CONTINUE TODAY.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE A FAIRLY STRONG CAP ABOVE 850 MB WITH AN
EXTENSIVE DRY LAYER ABOVE. ONLY A FEW FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS EXPECTED.

WITH THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE
OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY...THE LIGHT SOUTH FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THIS MORNING AND INCREASE SLOWLY. HRRR WIND GUST INCREASE TO
AROUND 15 MPH THIS AFTERNOON...AND AROUND 20 MPH ALONG LAKE
MICHIGAN. AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS TONIGHT WINDS SHOULD
NOT DECOUPLE MUCH...BUT STILL SHOULD BE MAINLY AROUND 10 MPH.

&&

.MARINE...

WITH THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE
OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY...THE LIGHT SOUTH FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THIS MORNING AND INCREASE SLOWLY. SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WIND GUSTS
INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS TONIGHT WINDS SHOULD NOT DECREASE MUCH...BUT
STILL SHOULD BE MAINLY JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA THROUGH
TONIGHT...BUT MAY BE NEEDED MONDAY.

AS DEW POINTS RISE FOG MAY BECOME MORE OF AN ISSUE...SO WILL INCLUDE
PATCHY FOG FOR NOW TODAY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DDV





000
FXUS63 KMKX 050833
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
333 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

VERY WEAK 250 MB FLOW WITH A RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND TROUGH WELL
SOUTH.  LITTLE OR NO 700 MB UPWARD MOTION.

VERY WEAK 850/700 MB WARMING LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. 700 MB LEVELS
ARE DRY. 850 MB DEW POINTS INCREASE LATE TONIGHT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE A FAIRLY STRONG CAP ABOVE 850 MB WITH AN
EXTENSIVE DRY LAYER ABOVE.  THEREFORE THE 1000 JOULES/KG OF CAPE
MAINLY SOUTHWEST OF MADISON THIS AFTERNOON WILL NOT COME INTO PLAY.
ONLY A FEW FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS EXPECTED.

WITH THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE
OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY...THE LIGHT SOUTH FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THIS MORNING AND INCREASE SLOWLY. HRRR WIND GUST INCREASE TO
AROUND 15 MPH THIS AFTERNOON...AND AROUND 20 MPH ALONG LAKE
MICHIGAN. AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS TONIGHT WINDS SHOULD
NOT DECOUPLE MUCH...BUT STILL SHOULD BE MAINLY AROUND 10 MPH.
EXPECT A LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP BUT NOT PROGRESS AS MUCH INLAND.

SURFACE DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER 60S THIS MORNING AND
INCREASE TO THE MID 60S LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE STRONG CAP
MIXING WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED.

.MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

MODELS REMAIN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. SHOULD BE A
GOOD INCREASE IN MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH THE GFS AND
NAM INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO AROUND 2-2.25 INCHES.
CAPE VALUES...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR...AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NOT
PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE. SOME STRONGER STORMS POSSIBLE THOUGH GIVEN
THE FRONT TIMING ALONG WITH RESPECTABLE LOWER LEVEL SHEAR AND
LAPSE RATES. SPC HAS MAINTAINED THE FORECAST AREA UNDER A MARGINAL
RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS. OVERALL...LOOKS LIKE A DECENT CHANCE FOR A
ROUND OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SUMMER STORMS...SO BUMPED POPS UP
SOME MORE.

STILL THINKING IT WILL BE A WARM DAY MONDAY...WITH 925 MB TEMPS OF
22-25C AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. MAIN CONCERN IS THAT
UPSTREAM CONVECTION FROM SUNDAY NIGHT MIGHT LIMP AND CLOUD THINGS
UP EARLY. SOME MODELS ALSO HAVE STORMS FIRING EARLIER IN THE DAY
BEFORE MAIN LINE OF STORM WITH FRONT MOVES IN. THOUGH THESE ARE
POSSIBILITIES...DO THINK THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SUN FOR FORECAST
HIGHS. LOOKS BREEZY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AS WELL AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT.

.TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

ANY LINGERING PRECIP SHOULD WIND DOWN IN THE SOUTHEAST BY EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING...WITH DRY WEATHER THEN EXPECTED THOUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY MORNING UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. HAVE SOME POPS IN FOR LATER
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AS MODELS SHOWING A COUPLE WAVES TO
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. NOT GREAT AGREEMENT IN WAVE PLACEMENT AND
TIMING BETWEEN MODELS...SO CHANCE POPS ARE SPREAD OUT THROUGH THIS
PERIOD.

MODELS HAVE AT LEAST COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH TEMPERATURE
TRENDS FOR THE EXTENDED. GENERALLY LOOKS LIKE BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK...WITH
TEMPS RETURNING TO AROUND NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. ELEVATED SMOKE LAYER FROM
THE CANADIAN FOREST FIRES WILL CONTINUE TODAY.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE A FAIRLY STRONG CAP ABOVE 850 MB WITH AN
EXTENSIVE DRY LAYER ABOVE. ONLY A FEW FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS EXPECTED.

WITH THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE
OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY...THE LIGHT SOUTH FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THIS MORNING AND INCREASE SLOWLY. HRRR WIND GUST INCREASE TO
AROUND 15 MPH THIS AFTERNOON...AND AROUND 20 MPH ALONG LAKE
MICHIGAN. AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS TONIGHT WINDS SHOULD
NOT DECOUPLE MUCH...BUT STILL SHOULD BE MAINLY AROUND 10 MPH.

&&

.MARINE...

WITH THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE
OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY...THE LIGHT SOUTH FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THIS MORNING AND INCREASE SLOWLY. SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WIND GUSTS
INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS TONIGHT WINDS SHOULD NOT DECREASE MUCH...BUT
STILL SHOULD BE MAINLY JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA THROUGH
TONIGHT...BUT MAY BE NEEDED MONDAY.

AS DEW POINTS RISE FOG MAY BECOME MORE OF AN ISSUE...SO WILL INCLUDE
PATCHY FOG FOR NOW TODAY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DDV




000
FXUS63 KMKX 050300
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1000 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
LITTLE TO NO CHANGES MADE TO THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST...MAINLY
LOOKING AT HOW WARM IT WILL END UP BEING TOMORROW FOLLOWED BY THE
CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL LEAD TO VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
TOMORROW NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE PICKING UP TO AROUND 10 KTS OR SO
UNDER MAINLY CLEAR/SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 606 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

UPDATE...
HAVE REMOVED THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR EARLY THIS EVENING AS
THE CU FIELD HAS QUICKLY DIMINISHED IN COVERAGE. JUST NOT ENOUGH
OF A FOCUS TO PROVIDE SOME SORT OF LIFT IN THE LOW LEVELS...EVEN
ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONAL AND WILL
DROP INTO THE 60S OVERNIGHT UNDER SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

SPC MESO PAGE SHOWS AXIS OF SOMEWHAT HIGHER MLCAPE EXTENDING FROM SE
MN INTO CNTRL WI CLIPPING OUR NRN CWA. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
VERY UNFAVORABLE WITH NON-EXISTENT 0-6KM SHEAR. THERE IS A WEAK AXIS
OF CONVERGENCE THAT IS PRIMARILY LAKE BREEZE INDUCED IN THE FAR
EAST. THERE IS ALSO A WEAK PRESSURE TROUGH AS WELL. NOT PLANNING ON
CARRYING ANY POPS BEYOND 00Z. MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN VERIFYING UP TO
THIS POINT QPF WISE. THE HRRR IS STILL TRYING TO DEVELOP PRECIP
ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY. BEST OVERLAP OF INSTAB AND LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE PER SPC MESO PAGE IS MORE IN THE NE CWA...SO WILL KEEP
SOME SMALL POPS GOING UNTIL 00Z. THE REST OF THE NIGHT LOOKS QUIET
WITH A WEAK FLOW PERSISTING WITH VERY DIFFUSE PRESSURE GRADIENT.
SURFACE HIGH LOOSELY CENTERED FROM IL INTO IN WILL CONTINUE A SLOW
EASTWARD DRIFT. WITH A SOUTHERLY WIND INCREASING OFF THE DECK NOT
EXPECTING FOG TO BE A PROBLEM.

SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...HIGH

WARM SOUTHERLY TAKES HOLD WITH 925 TEMPS NUDGING UP A FEW DEGREES.
SHOULD SEE WIDESPREAD 80S WITH SOME LAKE COOLING AS WINDS BEND
ONSHORE. CORRIDOR OF LLJ PROGGD TO EXTEND FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
NEWD INTO LAKE SUPR VCNTY. IN THE LOW LEVELS WE WILL REMAIN IN A
BROAD ANTICYCLONIC REGIME WITH ONLY A VERY WEAK/ELONGATED 500
MILLIBAR WAVE EDGING INTO THE WESTERN CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON. SO
DRY FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK GOOD.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

REMAINING WEAK SUBSIDENCE AND A DRY AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE THE QUIET
CONDITIONS ACROSS SRN WI THRU SUNDAY NIGHT.  INCREASING SOUTHERLY
BREEZES IN THE MIXING LEVEL SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES MILD
OVERNIGHT.  OVERNIGHT TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN IN MIDDLE 60S MOST AREAS.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS THREAT OF CONVECTION MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT.  LEANING MORE ON GFS AND ECMWF BLEND FOR THIS FORECAST AS NAM
SHOWING LARGE RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCIES.  HENCE CONFIDENCE REMAINS
AT MEDIUM DESPITE AGREEMENT IN OTHER GUIDANCE.

SOUTHERN PIECE OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND CANADA LONG WAVE
TROF WILL USHER A COLD FRONT ACROSS SRN WI MON AFTN AND NIGHT.  EWD
PROGRESS OF FRONT HAS SPED UP SLIGHTLY FROM 24 HOURS AGO AND WILL
EXIT SE WI SHORTLY AFTER 06Z/TUE.  INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT WILL HAVE NO PROBLEM TAPING INTO HIGHER COLUMN MOISTURE.
COLUMN PWAT INCREASES TO 1.5 TO 2 ON MONDAY AS SFC DEWPTS INCREASE
TO THE 65 TO 70 RANGE.  STRONGEST SYNOPTIC FORCING ASSOCD WITH MID-
LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND STRONGEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
FARTHERN NORTH OVER NORTHERN WI INTO THE UP.  MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE...IN THE 5-6C RANGE.  BULK SHEAR EXPECTED IN
THE 20 TO 30KT RANGE WITH 10 TO 20KT LOW LEVEL SHEAR.  TOP 5 CIPS
ANALOGS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE AND CWASP ALSO ON THE LOW SIDE.  STILL
SOME CONCERN THAT FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH SRN WI DURING
FAVORABLE LATE AFTN/EVE HOURS...SO FOR NOW MARGINAL SEVERE WX RISK
REASONABLE.  BREEZY SOUTH WINDS AND 925H TEMPS RISING TO AROUND 24C
SHOULD RESULT IN ONE OF THE WARMEST DAYS OF THE SUMMER ON
MONDAY...BEFORE THE CLOUDS INCREASE DURING THE DAY.  AFTER STARTING
OUT ON THE MILD SIDE...DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S.  COULD BE EVEN WARMER IF DEWPOINTS REMAIN A
LITTLE COOLER.  ALSO COUNTING ON INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW TO MID
LEVEL WINDS TO HELP SCOUR OUT THE PERSISTENT SMOKE FROM THE CANADA
WILDFIRES.

DRIER AIR RETURNS MONDAY NIGHT WITH COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS
LIKELY FOR TUESDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS QUIET.  MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON ZONAL FLOW SETTING UP OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST AFTER SOUTHERN CANADA SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST OF THE REGION ON
TUESDAY. MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF WISCONSIN
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS STEERING FLOW REMAINS MOSTLY ZONAL
TO SLIGHTLY WSW THRU SATURDAY.  DEEPER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN NEAR AND
SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY.

WEAKER MID-LEVEL WAVES TRAVERSING JUST NORTH OF THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WL THREATEN SOUTHERN WI WITH SMALL CHANCES FOR PRECIP LATER
IN THE WEEK SO WL CONTINUE TO CARRY LOW POPS AT TIMES FROM WED NGT
THRU SAT.  HOWEVER THREAT HAS BEEN DECREASING.  DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL START OUT BELOW SEASONAL NORMAL FOR MID-JULY BUT WARM TO NEAR
NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS THIS PERIOD AS SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS WILL SET UP A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR
SUNDAY. ANY CONVERGENCE AROUND THE AREA TODAY MINIMAL WITH VERY WEAK
WIND REGIME DUE TO LITTLE OR NO PRESSURE GRADIENT. MESO MODELS
CONTINUE TO HINT AT SPOTTY DEVELOPMENT AS THE AFTN WEARS ON IN ERN
AND NRN CWA SO WILL KEEP THE GOING SMALL POPS. INLAND CU FIELD
DIMINISHES WITH LOSS OF HEATING. SREF CIG/VSBY PROGS NOT SUGGESTING
ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY...THOUGH MET MOS HINTING
AT SOME PATCHY MVFR VSBYS. WILL KEEP OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW ESP WITH
SOME UPTICK IN SOUTHERLY WINDS OFF THE SURFACE AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBACH
TONIGHT/SUNDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...COLLAR
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MBK




000
FXUS63 KMKX 050300
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1000 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
LITTLE TO NO CHANGES MADE TO THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST...MAINLY
LOOKING AT HOW WARM IT WILL END UP BEING TOMORROW FOLLOWED BY THE
CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL LEAD TO VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
TOMORROW NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE PICKING UP TO AROUND 10 KTS OR SO
UNDER MAINLY CLEAR/SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 606 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

UPDATE...
HAVE REMOVED THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR EARLY THIS EVENING AS
THE CU FIELD HAS QUICKLY DIMINISHED IN COVERAGE. JUST NOT ENOUGH
OF A FOCUS TO PROVIDE SOME SORT OF LIFT IN THE LOW LEVELS...EVEN
ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONAL AND WILL
DROP INTO THE 60S OVERNIGHT UNDER SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

SPC MESO PAGE SHOWS AXIS OF SOMEWHAT HIGHER MLCAPE EXTENDING FROM SE
MN INTO CNTRL WI CLIPPING OUR NRN CWA. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
VERY UNFAVORABLE WITH NON-EXISTENT 0-6KM SHEAR. THERE IS A WEAK AXIS
OF CONVERGENCE THAT IS PRIMARILY LAKE BREEZE INDUCED IN THE FAR
EAST. THERE IS ALSO A WEAK PRESSURE TROUGH AS WELL. NOT PLANNING ON
CARRYING ANY POPS BEYOND 00Z. MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN VERIFYING UP TO
THIS POINT QPF WISE. THE HRRR IS STILL TRYING TO DEVELOP PRECIP
ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY. BEST OVERLAP OF INSTAB AND LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE PER SPC MESO PAGE IS MORE IN THE NE CWA...SO WILL KEEP
SOME SMALL POPS GOING UNTIL 00Z. THE REST OF THE NIGHT LOOKS QUIET
WITH A WEAK FLOW PERSISTING WITH VERY DIFFUSE PRESSURE GRADIENT.
SURFACE HIGH LOOSELY CENTERED FROM IL INTO IN WILL CONTINUE A SLOW
EASTWARD DRIFT. WITH A SOUTHERLY WIND INCREASING OFF THE DECK NOT
EXPECTING FOG TO BE A PROBLEM.

SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...HIGH

WARM SOUTHERLY TAKES HOLD WITH 925 TEMPS NUDGING UP A FEW DEGREES.
SHOULD SEE WIDESPREAD 80S WITH SOME LAKE COOLING AS WINDS BEND
ONSHORE. CORRIDOR OF LLJ PROGGD TO EXTEND FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
NEWD INTO LAKE SUPR VCNTY. IN THE LOW LEVELS WE WILL REMAIN IN A
BROAD ANTICYCLONIC REGIME WITH ONLY A VERY WEAK/ELONGATED 500
MILLIBAR WAVE EDGING INTO THE WESTERN CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON. SO
DRY FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK GOOD.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

REMAINING WEAK SUBSIDENCE AND A DRY AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE THE QUIET
CONDITIONS ACROSS SRN WI THRU SUNDAY NIGHT.  INCREASING SOUTHERLY
BREEZES IN THE MIXING LEVEL SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES MILD
OVERNIGHT.  OVERNIGHT TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN IN MIDDLE 60S MOST AREAS.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS THREAT OF CONVECTION MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT.  LEANING MORE ON GFS AND ECMWF BLEND FOR THIS FORECAST AS NAM
SHOWING LARGE RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCIES.  HENCE CONFIDENCE REMAINS
AT MEDIUM DESPITE AGREEMENT IN OTHER GUIDANCE.

SOUTHERN PIECE OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND CANADA LONG WAVE
TROF WILL USHER A COLD FRONT ACROSS SRN WI MON AFTN AND NIGHT.  EWD
PROGRESS OF FRONT HAS SPED UP SLIGHTLY FROM 24 HOURS AGO AND WILL
EXIT SE WI SHORTLY AFTER 06Z/TUE.  INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT WILL HAVE NO PROBLEM TAPING INTO HIGHER COLUMN MOISTURE.
COLUMN PWAT INCREASES TO 1.5 TO 2 ON MONDAY AS SFC DEWPTS INCREASE
TO THE 65 TO 70 RANGE.  STRONGEST SYNOPTIC FORCING ASSOCD WITH MID-
LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND STRONGEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
FARTHERN NORTH OVER NORTHERN WI INTO THE UP.  MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE...IN THE 5-6C RANGE.  BULK SHEAR EXPECTED IN
THE 20 TO 30KT RANGE WITH 10 TO 20KT LOW LEVEL SHEAR.  TOP 5 CIPS
ANALOGS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE AND CWASP ALSO ON THE LOW SIDE.  STILL
SOME CONCERN THAT FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH SRN WI DURING
FAVORABLE LATE AFTN/EVE HOURS...SO FOR NOW MARGINAL SEVERE WX RISK
REASONABLE.  BREEZY SOUTH WINDS AND 925H TEMPS RISING TO AROUND 24C
SHOULD RESULT IN ONE OF THE WARMEST DAYS OF THE SUMMER ON
MONDAY...BEFORE THE CLOUDS INCREASE DURING THE DAY.  AFTER STARTING
OUT ON THE MILD SIDE...DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S.  COULD BE EVEN WARMER IF DEWPOINTS REMAIN A
LITTLE COOLER.  ALSO COUNTING ON INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW TO MID
LEVEL WINDS TO HELP SCOUR OUT THE PERSISTENT SMOKE FROM THE CANADA
WILDFIRES.

DRIER AIR RETURNS MONDAY NIGHT WITH COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS
LIKELY FOR TUESDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS QUIET.  MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON ZONAL FLOW SETTING UP OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST AFTER SOUTHERN CANADA SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST OF THE REGION ON
TUESDAY. MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF WISCONSIN
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS STEERING FLOW REMAINS MOSTLY ZONAL
TO SLIGHTLY WSW THRU SATURDAY.  DEEPER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN NEAR AND
SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY.

WEAKER MID-LEVEL WAVES TRAVERSING JUST NORTH OF THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WL THREATEN SOUTHERN WI WITH SMALL CHANCES FOR PRECIP LATER
IN THE WEEK SO WL CONTINUE TO CARRY LOW POPS AT TIMES FROM WED NGT
THRU SAT.  HOWEVER THREAT HAS BEEN DECREASING.  DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL START OUT BELOW SEASONAL NORMAL FOR MID-JULY BUT WARM TO NEAR
NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS THIS PERIOD AS SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS WILL SET UP A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR
SUNDAY. ANY CONVERGENCE AROUND THE AREA TODAY MINIMAL WITH VERY WEAK
WIND REGIME DUE TO LITTLE OR NO PRESSURE GRADIENT. MESO MODELS
CONTINUE TO HINT AT SPOTTY DEVELOPMENT AS THE AFTN WEARS ON IN ERN
AND NRN CWA SO WILL KEEP THE GOING SMALL POPS. INLAND CU FIELD
DIMINISHES WITH LOSS OF HEATING. SREF CIG/VSBY PROGS NOT SUGGESTING
ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY...THOUGH MET MOS HINTING
AT SOME PATCHY MVFR VSBYS. WILL KEEP OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW ESP WITH
SOME UPTICK IN SOUTHERLY WINDS OFF THE SURFACE AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBACH
TONIGHT/SUNDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...COLLAR
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MBK





000
FXUS63 KMKX 050300
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1000 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
LITTLE TO NO CHANGES MADE TO THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST...MAINLY
LOOKING AT HOW WARM IT WILL END UP BEING TOMORROW FOLLOWED BY THE
CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL LEAD TO VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
TOMORROW NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE PICKING UP TO AROUND 10 KTS OR SO
UNDER MAINLY CLEAR/SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 606 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

UPDATE...
HAVE REMOVED THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR EARLY THIS EVENING AS
THE CU FIELD HAS QUICKLY DIMINISHED IN COVERAGE. JUST NOT ENOUGH
OF A FOCUS TO PROVIDE SOME SORT OF LIFT IN THE LOW LEVELS...EVEN
ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONAL AND WILL
DROP INTO THE 60S OVERNIGHT UNDER SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

SPC MESO PAGE SHOWS AXIS OF SOMEWHAT HIGHER MLCAPE EXTENDING FROM SE
MN INTO CNTRL WI CLIPPING OUR NRN CWA. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
VERY UNFAVORABLE WITH NON-EXISTENT 0-6KM SHEAR. THERE IS A WEAK AXIS
OF CONVERGENCE THAT IS PRIMARILY LAKE BREEZE INDUCED IN THE FAR
EAST. THERE IS ALSO A WEAK PRESSURE TROUGH AS WELL. NOT PLANNING ON
CARRYING ANY POPS BEYOND 00Z. MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN VERIFYING UP TO
THIS POINT QPF WISE. THE HRRR IS STILL TRYING TO DEVELOP PRECIP
ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY. BEST OVERLAP OF INSTAB AND LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE PER SPC MESO PAGE IS MORE IN THE NE CWA...SO WILL KEEP
SOME SMALL POPS GOING UNTIL 00Z. THE REST OF THE NIGHT LOOKS QUIET
WITH A WEAK FLOW PERSISTING WITH VERY DIFFUSE PRESSURE GRADIENT.
SURFACE HIGH LOOSELY CENTERED FROM IL INTO IN WILL CONTINUE A SLOW
EASTWARD DRIFT. WITH A SOUTHERLY WIND INCREASING OFF THE DECK NOT
EXPECTING FOG TO BE A PROBLEM.

SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...HIGH

WARM SOUTHERLY TAKES HOLD WITH 925 TEMPS NUDGING UP A FEW DEGREES.
SHOULD SEE WIDESPREAD 80S WITH SOME LAKE COOLING AS WINDS BEND
ONSHORE. CORRIDOR OF LLJ PROGGD TO EXTEND FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
NEWD INTO LAKE SUPR VCNTY. IN THE LOW LEVELS WE WILL REMAIN IN A
BROAD ANTICYCLONIC REGIME WITH ONLY A VERY WEAK/ELONGATED 500
MILLIBAR WAVE EDGING INTO THE WESTERN CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON. SO
DRY FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK GOOD.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

REMAINING WEAK SUBSIDENCE AND A DRY AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE THE QUIET
CONDITIONS ACROSS SRN WI THRU SUNDAY NIGHT.  INCREASING SOUTHERLY
BREEZES IN THE MIXING LEVEL SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES MILD
OVERNIGHT.  OVERNIGHT TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN IN MIDDLE 60S MOST AREAS.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS THREAT OF CONVECTION MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT.  LEANING MORE ON GFS AND ECMWF BLEND FOR THIS FORECAST AS NAM
SHOWING LARGE RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCIES.  HENCE CONFIDENCE REMAINS
AT MEDIUM DESPITE AGREEMENT IN OTHER GUIDANCE.

SOUTHERN PIECE OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND CANADA LONG WAVE
TROF WILL USHER A COLD FRONT ACROSS SRN WI MON AFTN AND NIGHT.  EWD
PROGRESS OF FRONT HAS SPED UP SLIGHTLY FROM 24 HOURS AGO AND WILL
EXIT SE WI SHORTLY AFTER 06Z/TUE.  INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT WILL HAVE NO PROBLEM TAPING INTO HIGHER COLUMN MOISTURE.
COLUMN PWAT INCREASES TO 1.5 TO 2 ON MONDAY AS SFC DEWPTS INCREASE
TO THE 65 TO 70 RANGE.  STRONGEST SYNOPTIC FORCING ASSOCD WITH MID-
LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND STRONGEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
FARTHERN NORTH OVER NORTHERN WI INTO THE UP.  MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE...IN THE 5-6C RANGE.  BULK SHEAR EXPECTED IN
THE 20 TO 30KT RANGE WITH 10 TO 20KT LOW LEVEL SHEAR.  TOP 5 CIPS
ANALOGS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE AND CWASP ALSO ON THE LOW SIDE.  STILL
SOME CONCERN THAT FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH SRN WI DURING
FAVORABLE LATE AFTN/EVE HOURS...SO FOR NOW MARGINAL SEVERE WX RISK
REASONABLE.  BREEZY SOUTH WINDS AND 925H TEMPS RISING TO AROUND 24C
SHOULD RESULT IN ONE OF THE WARMEST DAYS OF THE SUMMER ON
MONDAY...BEFORE THE CLOUDS INCREASE DURING THE DAY.  AFTER STARTING
OUT ON THE MILD SIDE...DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S.  COULD BE EVEN WARMER IF DEWPOINTS REMAIN A
LITTLE COOLER.  ALSO COUNTING ON INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW TO MID
LEVEL WINDS TO HELP SCOUR OUT THE PERSISTENT SMOKE FROM THE CANADA
WILDFIRES.

DRIER AIR RETURNS MONDAY NIGHT WITH COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS
LIKELY FOR TUESDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS QUIET.  MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON ZONAL FLOW SETTING UP OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST AFTER SOUTHERN CANADA SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST OF THE REGION ON
TUESDAY. MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF WISCONSIN
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS STEERING FLOW REMAINS MOSTLY ZONAL
TO SLIGHTLY WSW THRU SATURDAY.  DEEPER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN NEAR AND
SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY.

WEAKER MID-LEVEL WAVES TRAVERSING JUST NORTH OF THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WL THREATEN SOUTHERN WI WITH SMALL CHANCES FOR PRECIP LATER
IN THE WEEK SO WL CONTINUE TO CARRY LOW POPS AT TIMES FROM WED NGT
THRU SAT.  HOWEVER THREAT HAS BEEN DECREASING.  DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL START OUT BELOW SEASONAL NORMAL FOR MID-JULY BUT WARM TO NEAR
NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS THIS PERIOD AS SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS WILL SET UP A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR
SUNDAY. ANY CONVERGENCE AROUND THE AREA TODAY MINIMAL WITH VERY WEAK
WIND REGIME DUE TO LITTLE OR NO PRESSURE GRADIENT. MESO MODELS
CONTINUE TO HINT AT SPOTTY DEVELOPMENT AS THE AFTN WEARS ON IN ERN
AND NRN CWA SO WILL KEEP THE GOING SMALL POPS. INLAND CU FIELD
DIMINISHES WITH LOSS OF HEATING. SREF CIG/VSBY PROGS NOT SUGGESTING
ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY...THOUGH MET MOS HINTING
AT SOME PATCHY MVFR VSBYS. WILL KEEP OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW ESP WITH
SOME UPTICK IN SOUTHERLY WINDS OFF THE SURFACE AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBACH
TONIGHT/SUNDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...COLLAR
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MBK





000
FXUS63 KMKX 050300
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1000 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
LITTLE TO NO CHANGES MADE TO THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST...MAINLY
LOOKING AT HOW WARM IT WILL END UP BEING TOMORROW FOLLOWED BY THE
CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL LEAD TO VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
TOMORROW NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE PICKING UP TO AROUND 10 KTS OR SO
UNDER MAINLY CLEAR/SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 606 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

UPDATE...
HAVE REMOVED THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR EARLY THIS EVENING AS
THE CU FIELD HAS QUICKLY DIMINISHED IN COVERAGE. JUST NOT ENOUGH
OF A FOCUS TO PROVIDE SOME SORT OF LIFT IN THE LOW LEVELS...EVEN
ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONAL AND WILL
DROP INTO THE 60S OVERNIGHT UNDER SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

SPC MESO PAGE SHOWS AXIS OF SOMEWHAT HIGHER MLCAPE EXTENDING FROM SE
MN INTO CNTRL WI CLIPPING OUR NRN CWA. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
VERY UNFAVORABLE WITH NON-EXISTENT 0-6KM SHEAR. THERE IS A WEAK AXIS
OF CONVERGENCE THAT IS PRIMARILY LAKE BREEZE INDUCED IN THE FAR
EAST. THERE IS ALSO A WEAK PRESSURE TROUGH AS WELL. NOT PLANNING ON
CARRYING ANY POPS BEYOND 00Z. MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN VERIFYING UP TO
THIS POINT QPF WISE. THE HRRR IS STILL TRYING TO DEVELOP PRECIP
ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY. BEST OVERLAP OF INSTAB AND LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE PER SPC MESO PAGE IS MORE IN THE NE CWA...SO WILL KEEP
SOME SMALL POPS GOING UNTIL 00Z. THE REST OF THE NIGHT LOOKS QUIET
WITH A WEAK FLOW PERSISTING WITH VERY DIFFUSE PRESSURE GRADIENT.
SURFACE HIGH LOOSELY CENTERED FROM IL INTO IN WILL CONTINUE A SLOW
EASTWARD DRIFT. WITH A SOUTHERLY WIND INCREASING OFF THE DECK NOT
EXPECTING FOG TO BE A PROBLEM.

SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...HIGH

WARM SOUTHERLY TAKES HOLD WITH 925 TEMPS NUDGING UP A FEW DEGREES.
SHOULD SEE WIDESPREAD 80S WITH SOME LAKE COOLING AS WINDS BEND
ONSHORE. CORRIDOR OF LLJ PROGGD TO EXTEND FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
NEWD INTO LAKE SUPR VCNTY. IN THE LOW LEVELS WE WILL REMAIN IN A
BROAD ANTICYCLONIC REGIME WITH ONLY A VERY WEAK/ELONGATED 500
MILLIBAR WAVE EDGING INTO THE WESTERN CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON. SO
DRY FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK GOOD.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

REMAINING WEAK SUBSIDENCE AND A DRY AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE THE QUIET
CONDITIONS ACROSS SRN WI THRU SUNDAY NIGHT.  INCREASING SOUTHERLY
BREEZES IN THE MIXING LEVEL SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES MILD
OVERNIGHT.  OVERNIGHT TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN IN MIDDLE 60S MOST AREAS.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS THREAT OF CONVECTION MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT.  LEANING MORE ON GFS AND ECMWF BLEND FOR THIS FORECAST AS NAM
SHOWING LARGE RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCIES.  HENCE CONFIDENCE REMAINS
AT MEDIUM DESPITE AGREEMENT IN OTHER GUIDANCE.

SOUTHERN PIECE OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND CANADA LONG WAVE
TROF WILL USHER A COLD FRONT ACROSS SRN WI MON AFTN AND NIGHT.  EWD
PROGRESS OF FRONT HAS SPED UP SLIGHTLY FROM 24 HOURS AGO AND WILL
EXIT SE WI SHORTLY AFTER 06Z/TUE.  INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT WILL HAVE NO PROBLEM TAPING INTO HIGHER COLUMN MOISTURE.
COLUMN PWAT INCREASES TO 1.5 TO 2 ON MONDAY AS SFC DEWPTS INCREASE
TO THE 65 TO 70 RANGE.  STRONGEST SYNOPTIC FORCING ASSOCD WITH MID-
LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND STRONGEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
FARTHERN NORTH OVER NORTHERN WI INTO THE UP.  MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE...IN THE 5-6C RANGE.  BULK SHEAR EXPECTED IN
THE 20 TO 30KT RANGE WITH 10 TO 20KT LOW LEVEL SHEAR.  TOP 5 CIPS
ANALOGS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE AND CWASP ALSO ON THE LOW SIDE.  STILL
SOME CONCERN THAT FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH SRN WI DURING
FAVORABLE LATE AFTN/EVE HOURS...SO FOR NOW MARGINAL SEVERE WX RISK
REASONABLE.  BREEZY SOUTH WINDS AND 925H TEMPS RISING TO AROUND 24C
SHOULD RESULT IN ONE OF THE WARMEST DAYS OF THE SUMMER ON
MONDAY...BEFORE THE CLOUDS INCREASE DURING THE DAY.  AFTER STARTING
OUT ON THE MILD SIDE...DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S.  COULD BE EVEN WARMER IF DEWPOINTS REMAIN A
LITTLE COOLER.  ALSO COUNTING ON INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW TO MID
LEVEL WINDS TO HELP SCOUR OUT THE PERSISTENT SMOKE FROM THE CANADA
WILDFIRES.

DRIER AIR RETURNS MONDAY NIGHT WITH COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS
LIKELY FOR TUESDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS QUIET.  MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON ZONAL FLOW SETTING UP OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST AFTER SOUTHERN CANADA SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST OF THE REGION ON
TUESDAY. MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF WISCONSIN
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS STEERING FLOW REMAINS MOSTLY ZONAL
TO SLIGHTLY WSW THRU SATURDAY.  DEEPER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN NEAR AND
SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY.

WEAKER MID-LEVEL WAVES TRAVERSING JUST NORTH OF THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WL THREATEN SOUTHERN WI WITH SMALL CHANCES FOR PRECIP LATER
IN THE WEEK SO WL CONTINUE TO CARRY LOW POPS AT TIMES FROM WED NGT
THRU SAT.  HOWEVER THREAT HAS BEEN DECREASING.  DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL START OUT BELOW SEASONAL NORMAL FOR MID-JULY BUT WARM TO NEAR
NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS THIS PERIOD AS SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS WILL SET UP A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR
SUNDAY. ANY CONVERGENCE AROUND THE AREA TODAY MINIMAL WITH VERY WEAK
WIND REGIME DUE TO LITTLE OR NO PRESSURE GRADIENT. MESO MODELS
CONTINUE TO HINT AT SPOTTY DEVELOPMENT AS THE AFTN WEARS ON IN ERN
AND NRN CWA SO WILL KEEP THE GOING SMALL POPS. INLAND CU FIELD
DIMINISHES WITH LOSS OF HEATING. SREF CIG/VSBY PROGS NOT SUGGESTING
ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY...THOUGH MET MOS HINTING
AT SOME PATCHY MVFR VSBYS. WILL KEEP OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW ESP WITH
SOME UPTICK IN SOUTHERLY WINDS OFF THE SURFACE AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBACH
TONIGHT/SUNDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...COLLAR
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MBK




000
FXUS63 KMKX 042306
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
606 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
HAVE REMOVED THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR EARLY THIS EVENING AS
THE CU FIELD HAS QUICKLY DIMINISHED IN COVERAGE. JUST NOT ENOUGH
OF A FOCUS TO PROVIDE SOME SORT OF LIFT IN THE LOW LEVELS...EVEN
ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONAL AND WILL
DROP INTO THE 60S OVERNIGHT UNDER SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

SPC MESO PAGE SHOWS AXIS OF SOMEWHAT HIGHER MLCAPE EXTENDING FROM SE
MN INTO CNTRL WI CLIPPING OUR NRN CWA. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
VERY UNFAVORABLE WITH NON-EXISTENT 0-6KM SHEAR. THERE IS A WEAK AXIS
OF CONVERGENCE THAT IS PRIMARILY LAKE BREEZE INDUCED IN THE FAR
EAST. THERE IS ALSO A WEAK PRESSURE TROUGH AS WELL. NOT PLANNING ON
CARRYING ANY POPS BEYOND 00Z. MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN VERIFYING UP TO
THIS POINT QPF WISE. THE HRRR IS STILL TRYING TO DEVELOP PRECIP
ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY. BEST OVERLAP OF INSTAB AND LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE PER SPC MESO PAGE IS MORE IN THE NE CWA...SO WILL KEEP
SOME SMALL POPS GOING UNTIL 00Z. THE REST OF THE NIGHT LOOKS QUIET
WITH A WEAK FLOW PERSISTING WITH VERY DIFFUSE PRESSURE GRADIENT.
SURFACE HIGH LOOSELY CENTERED FROM IL INTO IN WILL CONTINUE A SLOW
EASTWARD DRIFT. WITH A SOUTHERLY WIND INCREASING OFF THE DECK NOT
EXPECTING FOG TO BE A PROBLEM.

SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...HIGH

WARM SOUTHERLY TAKES HOLD WITH 925 TEMPS NUDGING UP A FEW DEGREES.
SHOULD SEE WIDESPREAD 80S WITH SOME LAKE COOLING AS WINDS BEND
ONSHORE. CORRIDOR OF LLJ PROGGD TO EXTEND FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
NEWD INTO LAKE SUPR VCNTY. IN THE LOW LEVELS WE WILL REMAIN IN A
BROAD ANTICYCLONIC REGIME WITH ONLY A VERY WEAK/ELONGATED 500
MILLIBAR WAVE EDGING INTO THE WESTERN CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON. SO
DRY FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK GOOD.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

REMAINING WEAK SUBSIDENCE AND A DRY AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE THE QUIET
CONDITIONS ACROSS SRN WI THRU SUNDAY NIGHT.  INCREASING SOUTHERLY
BREEZES IN THE MIXING LEVEL SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES MILD
OVERNIGHT.  OVERNIGHT TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN IN MIDDLE 60S MOST AREAS.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS THREAT OF CONVECTION MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT.  LEANING MORE ON GFS AND ECMWF BLEND FOR THIS FORECAST AS NAM
SHOWING LARGE RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCIES.  HENCE CONFIDENCE REMAINS
AT MEDIUM DESPITE AGREEMENT IN OTHER GUIDANCE.

SOUTHERN PIECE OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND CANADA LONG WAVE
TROF WILL USHER A COLD FRONT ACROSS SRN WI MON AFTN AND NIGHT.  EWD
PROGRESS OF FRONT HAS SPED UP SLIGHTLY FROM 24 HOURS AGO AND WILL
EXIT SE WI SHORTLY AFTER 06Z/TUE.  INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT WILL HAVE NO PROBLEM TAPING INTO HIGHER COLUMN MOISTURE.
COLUMN PWAT INCREASES TO 1.5 TO 2 ON MONDAY AS SFC DEWPTS INCREASE
TO THE 65 TO 70 RANGE.  STRONGEST SYNOPTIC FORCING ASSOCD WITH MID-
LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND STRONGEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
FARTHERN NORTH OVER NORTHERN WI INTO THE UP.  MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE...IN THE 5-6C RANGE.  BULK SHEAR EXPECTED IN
THE 20 TO 30KT RANGE WITH 10 TO 20KT LOW LEVEL SHEAR.  TOP 5 CIPS
ANALOGS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE AND CWASP ALSO ON THE LOW SIDE.  STILL
SOME CONCERN THAT FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH SRN WI DURING
FAVORABLE LATE AFTN/EVE HOURS...SO FOR NOW MARGINAL SEVERE WX RISK
REASONABLE.  BREEZY SOUTH WINDS AND 925H TEMPS RISING TO AROUND 24C
SHOULD RESULT IN ONE OF THE WARMEST DAYS OF THE SUMMER ON
MONDAY...BEFORE THE CLOUDS INCREASE DURING THE DAY.  AFTER STARTING
OUT ON THE MILD SIDE...DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S.  COULD BE EVEN WARMER IF DEWPOINTS REMAIN A
LITTLE COOLER.  ALSO COUNTING ON INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW TO MID
LEVEL WINDS TO HELP SCOUR OUT THE PERSISTENT SMOKE FROM THE CANADA
WILDFIRES.

DRIER AIR RETURNS MONDAY NIGHT WITH COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS
LIKELY FOR TUESDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS QUIET.  MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON ZONAL FLOW SETTING UP OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST AFTER SOUTHERN CANADA SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST OF THE REGION ON
TUESDAY. MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF WISCONSIN
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS STEERING FLOW REMAINS MOSTLY ZONAL
TO SLIGHTLY WSW THRU SATURDAY.  DEEPER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN NEAR AND
SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY.

WEAKER MID-LEVEL WAVES TRAVERSING JUST NORTH OF THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WL THREATEN SOUTHERN WI WITH SMALL CHANCES FOR PRECIP LATER
IN THE WEEK SO WL CONTINUE TO CARRY LOW POPS AT TIMES FROM WED NGT
THRU SAT.  HOWEVER THREAT HAS BEEN DECREASING.  DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL START OUT BELOW SEASONAL NORMAL FOR MID-JULY BUT WARM TO NEAR
NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS THIS PERIOD AS SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS WILL SET UP A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR
SUNDAY. ANY CONVERGENCE AROUND THE AREA TODAY MINIMAL WITH VERY WEAK
WIND REGIME DUE TO LITTLE OR NO PRESSURE GRADIENT. MESO MODELS
CONTINUE TO HINT AT SPOTTY DEVELOPMENT AS THE AFTN WEARS ON IN ERN
AND NRN CWA SO WILL KEEP THE GOING SMALL POPS. INLAND CU FIELD
DIMINISHES WITH LOSS OF HEATING. SREF CIG/VSBY PROGS NOT SUGGESTING
ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY...THOUGH MET MOS HINTING
AT SOME PATCHY MVFR VSBYS. WILL KEEP OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW ESP WITH
SOME UPTICK IN SOUTHERLY WINDS OFF THE SURFACE AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBACH
TONIGHT/SUNDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...COLLAR
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MBK





000
FXUS63 KMKX 042306
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
606 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
HAVE REMOVED THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR EARLY THIS EVENING AS
THE CU FIELD HAS QUICKLY DIMINISHED IN COVERAGE. JUST NOT ENOUGH
OF A FOCUS TO PROVIDE SOME SORT OF LIFT IN THE LOW LEVELS...EVEN
ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONAL AND WILL
DROP INTO THE 60S OVERNIGHT UNDER SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

SPC MESO PAGE SHOWS AXIS OF SOMEWHAT HIGHER MLCAPE EXTENDING FROM SE
MN INTO CNTRL WI CLIPPING OUR NRN CWA. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
VERY UNFAVORABLE WITH NON-EXISTENT 0-6KM SHEAR. THERE IS A WEAK AXIS
OF CONVERGENCE THAT IS PRIMARILY LAKE BREEZE INDUCED IN THE FAR
EAST. THERE IS ALSO A WEAK PRESSURE TROUGH AS WELL. NOT PLANNING ON
CARRYING ANY POPS BEYOND 00Z. MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN VERIFYING UP TO
THIS POINT QPF WISE. THE HRRR IS STILL TRYING TO DEVELOP PRECIP
ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY. BEST OVERLAP OF INSTAB AND LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE PER SPC MESO PAGE IS MORE IN THE NE CWA...SO WILL KEEP
SOME SMALL POPS GOING UNTIL 00Z. THE REST OF THE NIGHT LOOKS QUIET
WITH A WEAK FLOW PERSISTING WITH VERY DIFFUSE PRESSURE GRADIENT.
SURFACE HIGH LOOSELY CENTERED FROM IL INTO IN WILL CONTINUE A SLOW
EASTWARD DRIFT. WITH A SOUTHERLY WIND INCREASING OFF THE DECK NOT
EXPECTING FOG TO BE A PROBLEM.

SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...HIGH

WARM SOUTHERLY TAKES HOLD WITH 925 TEMPS NUDGING UP A FEW DEGREES.
SHOULD SEE WIDESPREAD 80S WITH SOME LAKE COOLING AS WINDS BEND
ONSHORE. CORRIDOR OF LLJ PROGGD TO EXTEND FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
NEWD INTO LAKE SUPR VCNTY. IN THE LOW LEVELS WE WILL REMAIN IN A
BROAD ANTICYCLONIC REGIME WITH ONLY A VERY WEAK/ELONGATED 500
MILLIBAR WAVE EDGING INTO THE WESTERN CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON. SO
DRY FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK GOOD.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

REMAINING WEAK SUBSIDENCE AND A DRY AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE THE QUIET
CONDITIONS ACROSS SRN WI THRU SUNDAY NIGHT.  INCREASING SOUTHERLY
BREEZES IN THE MIXING LEVEL SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES MILD
OVERNIGHT.  OVERNIGHT TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN IN MIDDLE 60S MOST AREAS.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS THREAT OF CONVECTION MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT.  LEANING MORE ON GFS AND ECMWF BLEND FOR THIS FORECAST AS NAM
SHOWING LARGE RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCIES.  HENCE CONFIDENCE REMAINS
AT MEDIUM DESPITE AGREEMENT IN OTHER GUIDANCE.

SOUTHERN PIECE OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND CANADA LONG WAVE
TROF WILL USHER A COLD FRONT ACROSS SRN WI MON AFTN AND NIGHT.  EWD
PROGRESS OF FRONT HAS SPED UP SLIGHTLY FROM 24 HOURS AGO AND WILL
EXIT SE WI SHORTLY AFTER 06Z/TUE.  INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT WILL HAVE NO PROBLEM TAPING INTO HIGHER COLUMN MOISTURE.
COLUMN PWAT INCREASES TO 1.5 TO 2 ON MONDAY AS SFC DEWPTS INCREASE
TO THE 65 TO 70 RANGE.  STRONGEST SYNOPTIC FORCING ASSOCD WITH MID-
LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND STRONGEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
FARTHERN NORTH OVER NORTHERN WI INTO THE UP.  MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE...IN THE 5-6C RANGE.  BULK SHEAR EXPECTED IN
THE 20 TO 30KT RANGE WITH 10 TO 20KT LOW LEVEL SHEAR.  TOP 5 CIPS
ANALOGS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE AND CWASP ALSO ON THE LOW SIDE.  STILL
SOME CONCERN THAT FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH SRN WI DURING
FAVORABLE LATE AFTN/EVE HOURS...SO FOR NOW MARGINAL SEVERE WX RISK
REASONABLE.  BREEZY SOUTH WINDS AND 925H TEMPS RISING TO AROUND 24C
SHOULD RESULT IN ONE OF THE WARMEST DAYS OF THE SUMMER ON
MONDAY...BEFORE THE CLOUDS INCREASE DURING THE DAY.  AFTER STARTING
OUT ON THE MILD SIDE...DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S.  COULD BE EVEN WARMER IF DEWPOINTS REMAIN A
LITTLE COOLER.  ALSO COUNTING ON INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW TO MID
LEVEL WINDS TO HELP SCOUR OUT THE PERSISTENT SMOKE FROM THE CANADA
WILDFIRES.

DRIER AIR RETURNS MONDAY NIGHT WITH COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS
LIKELY FOR TUESDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS QUIET.  MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON ZONAL FLOW SETTING UP OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST AFTER SOUTHERN CANADA SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST OF THE REGION ON
TUESDAY. MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF WISCONSIN
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS STEERING FLOW REMAINS MOSTLY ZONAL
TO SLIGHTLY WSW THRU SATURDAY.  DEEPER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN NEAR AND
SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY.

WEAKER MID-LEVEL WAVES TRAVERSING JUST NORTH OF THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WL THREATEN SOUTHERN WI WITH SMALL CHANCES FOR PRECIP LATER
IN THE WEEK SO WL CONTINUE TO CARRY LOW POPS AT TIMES FROM WED NGT
THRU SAT.  HOWEVER THREAT HAS BEEN DECREASING.  DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL START OUT BELOW SEASONAL NORMAL FOR MID-JULY BUT WARM TO NEAR
NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS THIS PERIOD AS SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS WILL SET UP A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR
SUNDAY. ANY CONVERGENCE AROUND THE AREA TODAY MINIMAL WITH VERY WEAK
WIND REGIME DUE TO LITTLE OR NO PRESSURE GRADIENT. MESO MODELS
CONTINUE TO HINT AT SPOTTY DEVELOPMENT AS THE AFTN WEARS ON IN ERN
AND NRN CWA SO WILL KEEP THE GOING SMALL POPS. INLAND CU FIELD
DIMINISHES WITH LOSS OF HEATING. SREF CIG/VSBY PROGS NOT SUGGESTING
ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY...THOUGH MET MOS HINTING
AT SOME PATCHY MVFR VSBYS. WILL KEEP OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW ESP WITH
SOME UPTICK IN SOUTHERLY WINDS OFF THE SURFACE AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBACH
TONIGHT/SUNDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...COLLAR
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MBK





000
FXUS63 KMKX 042306
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
606 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
HAVE REMOVED THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR EARLY THIS EVENING AS
THE CU FIELD HAS QUICKLY DIMINISHED IN COVERAGE. JUST NOT ENOUGH
OF A FOCUS TO PROVIDE SOME SORT OF LIFT IN THE LOW LEVELS...EVEN
ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONAL AND WILL
DROP INTO THE 60S OVERNIGHT UNDER SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

SPC MESO PAGE SHOWS AXIS OF SOMEWHAT HIGHER MLCAPE EXTENDING FROM SE
MN INTO CNTRL WI CLIPPING OUR NRN CWA. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
VERY UNFAVORABLE WITH NON-EXISTENT 0-6KM SHEAR. THERE IS A WEAK AXIS
OF CONVERGENCE THAT IS PRIMARILY LAKE BREEZE INDUCED IN THE FAR
EAST. THERE IS ALSO A WEAK PRESSURE TROUGH AS WELL. NOT PLANNING ON
CARRYING ANY POPS BEYOND 00Z. MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN VERIFYING UP TO
THIS POINT QPF WISE. THE HRRR IS STILL TRYING TO DEVELOP PRECIP
ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY. BEST OVERLAP OF INSTAB AND LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE PER SPC MESO PAGE IS MORE IN THE NE CWA...SO WILL KEEP
SOME SMALL POPS GOING UNTIL 00Z. THE REST OF THE NIGHT LOOKS QUIET
WITH A WEAK FLOW PERSISTING WITH VERY DIFFUSE PRESSURE GRADIENT.
SURFACE HIGH LOOSELY CENTERED FROM IL INTO IN WILL CONTINUE A SLOW
EASTWARD DRIFT. WITH A SOUTHERLY WIND INCREASING OFF THE DECK NOT
EXPECTING FOG TO BE A PROBLEM.

SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...HIGH

WARM SOUTHERLY TAKES HOLD WITH 925 TEMPS NUDGING UP A FEW DEGREES.
SHOULD SEE WIDESPREAD 80S WITH SOME LAKE COOLING AS WINDS BEND
ONSHORE. CORRIDOR OF LLJ PROGGD TO EXTEND FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
NEWD INTO LAKE SUPR VCNTY. IN THE LOW LEVELS WE WILL REMAIN IN A
BROAD ANTICYCLONIC REGIME WITH ONLY A VERY WEAK/ELONGATED 500
MILLIBAR WAVE EDGING INTO THE WESTERN CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON. SO
DRY FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK GOOD.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

REMAINING WEAK SUBSIDENCE AND A DRY AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE THE QUIET
CONDITIONS ACROSS SRN WI THRU SUNDAY NIGHT.  INCREASING SOUTHERLY
BREEZES IN THE MIXING LEVEL SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES MILD
OVERNIGHT.  OVERNIGHT TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN IN MIDDLE 60S MOST AREAS.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS THREAT OF CONVECTION MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT.  LEANING MORE ON GFS AND ECMWF BLEND FOR THIS FORECAST AS NAM
SHOWING LARGE RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCIES.  HENCE CONFIDENCE REMAINS
AT MEDIUM DESPITE AGREEMENT IN OTHER GUIDANCE.

SOUTHERN PIECE OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND CANADA LONG WAVE
TROF WILL USHER A COLD FRONT ACROSS SRN WI MON AFTN AND NIGHT.  EWD
PROGRESS OF FRONT HAS SPED UP SLIGHTLY FROM 24 HOURS AGO AND WILL
EXIT SE WI SHORTLY AFTER 06Z/TUE.  INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT WILL HAVE NO PROBLEM TAPING INTO HIGHER COLUMN MOISTURE.
COLUMN PWAT INCREASES TO 1.5 TO 2 ON MONDAY AS SFC DEWPTS INCREASE
TO THE 65 TO 70 RANGE.  STRONGEST SYNOPTIC FORCING ASSOCD WITH MID-
LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND STRONGEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
FARTHERN NORTH OVER NORTHERN WI INTO THE UP.  MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE...IN THE 5-6C RANGE.  BULK SHEAR EXPECTED IN
THE 20 TO 30KT RANGE WITH 10 TO 20KT LOW LEVEL SHEAR.  TOP 5 CIPS
ANALOGS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE AND CWASP ALSO ON THE LOW SIDE.  STILL
SOME CONCERN THAT FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH SRN WI DURING
FAVORABLE LATE AFTN/EVE HOURS...SO FOR NOW MARGINAL SEVERE WX RISK
REASONABLE.  BREEZY SOUTH WINDS AND 925H TEMPS RISING TO AROUND 24C
SHOULD RESULT IN ONE OF THE WARMEST DAYS OF THE SUMMER ON
MONDAY...BEFORE THE CLOUDS INCREASE DURING THE DAY.  AFTER STARTING
OUT ON THE MILD SIDE...DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S.  COULD BE EVEN WARMER IF DEWPOINTS REMAIN A
LITTLE COOLER.  ALSO COUNTING ON INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW TO MID
LEVEL WINDS TO HELP SCOUR OUT THE PERSISTENT SMOKE FROM THE CANADA
WILDFIRES.

DRIER AIR RETURNS MONDAY NIGHT WITH COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS
LIKELY FOR TUESDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS QUIET.  MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON ZONAL FLOW SETTING UP OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST AFTER SOUTHERN CANADA SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST OF THE REGION ON
TUESDAY. MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF WISCONSIN
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS STEERING FLOW REMAINS MOSTLY ZONAL
TO SLIGHTLY WSW THRU SATURDAY.  DEEPER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN NEAR AND
SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY.

WEAKER MID-LEVEL WAVES TRAVERSING JUST NORTH OF THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WL THREATEN SOUTHERN WI WITH SMALL CHANCES FOR PRECIP LATER
IN THE WEEK SO WL CONTINUE TO CARRY LOW POPS AT TIMES FROM WED NGT
THRU SAT.  HOWEVER THREAT HAS BEEN DECREASING.  DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL START OUT BELOW SEASONAL NORMAL FOR MID-JULY BUT WARM TO NEAR
NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS THIS PERIOD AS SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS WILL SET UP A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR
SUNDAY. ANY CONVERGENCE AROUND THE AREA TODAY MINIMAL WITH VERY WEAK
WIND REGIME DUE TO LITTLE OR NO PRESSURE GRADIENT. MESO MODELS
CONTINUE TO HINT AT SPOTTY DEVELOPMENT AS THE AFTN WEARS ON IN ERN
AND NRN CWA SO WILL KEEP THE GOING SMALL POPS. INLAND CU FIELD
DIMINISHES WITH LOSS OF HEATING. SREF CIG/VSBY PROGS NOT SUGGESTING
ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY...THOUGH MET MOS HINTING
AT SOME PATCHY MVFR VSBYS. WILL KEEP OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW ESP WITH
SOME UPTICK IN SOUTHERLY WINDS OFF THE SURFACE AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBACH
TONIGHT/SUNDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...COLLAR
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MBK




000
FXUS63 KMKX 042306
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
606 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
HAVE REMOVED THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR EARLY THIS EVENING AS
THE CU FIELD HAS QUICKLY DIMINISHED IN COVERAGE. JUST NOT ENOUGH
OF A FOCUS TO PROVIDE SOME SORT OF LIFT IN THE LOW LEVELS...EVEN
ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONAL AND WILL
DROP INTO THE 60S OVERNIGHT UNDER SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

SPC MESO PAGE SHOWS AXIS OF SOMEWHAT HIGHER MLCAPE EXTENDING FROM SE
MN INTO CNTRL WI CLIPPING OUR NRN CWA. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
VERY UNFAVORABLE WITH NON-EXISTENT 0-6KM SHEAR. THERE IS A WEAK AXIS
OF CONVERGENCE THAT IS PRIMARILY LAKE BREEZE INDUCED IN THE FAR
EAST. THERE IS ALSO A WEAK PRESSURE TROUGH AS WELL. NOT PLANNING ON
CARRYING ANY POPS BEYOND 00Z. MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN VERIFYING UP TO
THIS POINT QPF WISE. THE HRRR IS STILL TRYING TO DEVELOP PRECIP
ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY. BEST OVERLAP OF INSTAB AND LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE PER SPC MESO PAGE IS MORE IN THE NE CWA...SO WILL KEEP
SOME SMALL POPS GOING UNTIL 00Z. THE REST OF THE NIGHT LOOKS QUIET
WITH A WEAK FLOW PERSISTING WITH VERY DIFFUSE PRESSURE GRADIENT.
SURFACE HIGH LOOSELY CENTERED FROM IL INTO IN WILL CONTINUE A SLOW
EASTWARD DRIFT. WITH A SOUTHERLY WIND INCREASING OFF THE DECK NOT
EXPECTING FOG TO BE A PROBLEM.

SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...HIGH

WARM SOUTHERLY TAKES HOLD WITH 925 TEMPS NUDGING UP A FEW DEGREES.
SHOULD SEE WIDESPREAD 80S WITH SOME LAKE COOLING AS WINDS BEND
ONSHORE. CORRIDOR OF LLJ PROGGD TO EXTEND FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
NEWD INTO LAKE SUPR VCNTY. IN THE LOW LEVELS WE WILL REMAIN IN A
BROAD ANTICYCLONIC REGIME WITH ONLY A VERY WEAK/ELONGATED 500
MILLIBAR WAVE EDGING INTO THE WESTERN CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON. SO
DRY FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK GOOD.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

REMAINING WEAK SUBSIDENCE AND A DRY AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE THE QUIET
CONDITIONS ACROSS SRN WI THRU SUNDAY NIGHT.  INCREASING SOUTHERLY
BREEZES IN THE MIXING LEVEL SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES MILD
OVERNIGHT.  OVERNIGHT TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN IN MIDDLE 60S MOST AREAS.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS THREAT OF CONVECTION MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT.  LEANING MORE ON GFS AND ECMWF BLEND FOR THIS FORECAST AS NAM
SHOWING LARGE RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCIES.  HENCE CONFIDENCE REMAINS
AT MEDIUM DESPITE AGREEMENT IN OTHER GUIDANCE.

SOUTHERN PIECE OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND CANADA LONG WAVE
TROF WILL USHER A COLD FRONT ACROSS SRN WI MON AFTN AND NIGHT.  EWD
PROGRESS OF FRONT HAS SPED UP SLIGHTLY FROM 24 HOURS AGO AND WILL
EXIT SE WI SHORTLY AFTER 06Z/TUE.  INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT WILL HAVE NO PROBLEM TAPING INTO HIGHER COLUMN MOISTURE.
COLUMN PWAT INCREASES TO 1.5 TO 2 ON MONDAY AS SFC DEWPTS INCREASE
TO THE 65 TO 70 RANGE.  STRONGEST SYNOPTIC FORCING ASSOCD WITH MID-
LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND STRONGEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
FARTHERN NORTH OVER NORTHERN WI INTO THE UP.  MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE...IN THE 5-6C RANGE.  BULK SHEAR EXPECTED IN
THE 20 TO 30KT RANGE WITH 10 TO 20KT LOW LEVEL SHEAR.  TOP 5 CIPS
ANALOGS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE AND CWASP ALSO ON THE LOW SIDE.  STILL
SOME CONCERN THAT FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH SRN WI DURING
FAVORABLE LATE AFTN/EVE HOURS...SO FOR NOW MARGINAL SEVERE WX RISK
REASONABLE.  BREEZY SOUTH WINDS AND 925H TEMPS RISING TO AROUND 24C
SHOULD RESULT IN ONE OF THE WARMEST DAYS OF THE SUMMER ON
MONDAY...BEFORE THE CLOUDS INCREASE DURING THE DAY.  AFTER STARTING
OUT ON THE MILD SIDE...DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S.  COULD BE EVEN WARMER IF DEWPOINTS REMAIN A
LITTLE COOLER.  ALSO COUNTING ON INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW TO MID
LEVEL WINDS TO HELP SCOUR OUT THE PERSISTENT SMOKE FROM THE CANADA
WILDFIRES.

DRIER AIR RETURNS MONDAY NIGHT WITH COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS
LIKELY FOR TUESDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS QUIET.  MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON ZONAL FLOW SETTING UP OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST AFTER SOUTHERN CANADA SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST OF THE REGION ON
TUESDAY. MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF WISCONSIN
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS STEERING FLOW REMAINS MOSTLY ZONAL
TO SLIGHTLY WSW THRU SATURDAY.  DEEPER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN NEAR AND
SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY.

WEAKER MID-LEVEL WAVES TRAVERSING JUST NORTH OF THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WL THREATEN SOUTHERN WI WITH SMALL CHANCES FOR PRECIP LATER
IN THE WEEK SO WL CONTINUE TO CARRY LOW POPS AT TIMES FROM WED NGT
THRU SAT.  HOWEVER THREAT HAS BEEN DECREASING.  DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL START OUT BELOW SEASONAL NORMAL FOR MID-JULY BUT WARM TO NEAR
NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS THIS PERIOD AS SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS WILL SET UP A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR
SUNDAY. ANY CONVERGENCE AROUND THE AREA TODAY MINIMAL WITH VERY WEAK
WIND REGIME DUE TO LITTLE OR NO PRESSURE GRADIENT. MESO MODELS
CONTINUE TO HINT AT SPOTTY DEVELOPMENT AS THE AFTN WEARS ON IN ERN
AND NRN CWA SO WILL KEEP THE GOING SMALL POPS. INLAND CU FIELD
DIMINISHES WITH LOSS OF HEATING. SREF CIG/VSBY PROGS NOT SUGGESTING
ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY...THOUGH MET MOS HINTING
AT SOME PATCHY MVFR VSBYS. WILL KEEP OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW ESP WITH
SOME UPTICK IN SOUTHERLY WINDS OFF THE SURFACE AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBACH
TONIGHT/SUNDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...COLLAR
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MBK




000
FXUS63 KMKX 042028
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
330 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

SPC MESO PAGE SHOWS AXIS OF SOMEWHAT HIGHER MLCAPE EXTENDING FROM SE
MN INTO CNTRL WI CLIPPING OUR NRN CWA. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
VERY UNFAVORABLE WITH NON-EXISTENT 0-6KM SHEAR. THERE IS A WEAK AXIS
OF CONVERGENCE THAT IS PRIMARILY LAKE BREEZE INDUCED IN THE FAR
EAST. THERE IS ALSO A WEAK PRESSURE TROUGH AS WELL. NOT PLANNING ON
CARRYING ANY POPS BEYOND 00Z. MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN VERIFYING UP TO
THIS POINT QPF WISE. THE HRRR IS STILL TRYING TO DEVELOP PRECIP
ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY. BEST OVERLAP OF INSTAB AND LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE PER SPC MESO PAGE IS MORE IN THE NE CWA...SO WILL KEEP
SOME SMALL POPS GOING UNTIL 00Z. THE REST OF THE NIGHT LOOKS QUIET
WITH A WEAK FLOW PERSISTING WITH VERY DIFFUSE PRESSURE GRADIENT.
SURFACE HIGH LOOSELY CENTERED FROM IL INTO IN WILL CONTINUE A SLOW
EASTWARD DRIFT. WITH A SOUTHERLY WIND INCREASING OFF THE DECK NOT
EXPECTING FOG TO BE A PROBLEM.

.SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...HIGH

WARM SOUTHERLY TAKES HOLD WITH 925 TEMPS NUDGING UP A FEW DEGREES.
SHOULD SEE WIDESPREAD 80S WITH SOME LAKE COOLING AS WINDS BEND
ONSHORE. CORRIDOR OF LLJ PROGGD TO EXTEND FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
NEWD INTO LAKE SUPR VCNTY. IN THE LOW LEVELS WE WILL REMAIN IN A
BROAD ANTICYCLONIC REGIME WITH ONLY A VERY WEAK/ELONGATED 500
MILLIBAR WAVE EDGING INTO THE WESTERN CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON. SO
DRY FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK GOOD.

.SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

REMAINING WEAK SUBSIDENCE AND A DRY AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE THE QUIET
CONDITIONS ACROSS SRN WI THRU SUNDAY NIGHT.  INCREASING SOUTHERLY
BREEZES IN THE MIXING LEVEL SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES MILD
OVERNIGHT.  OVERNIGHT TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN IN MIDDLE 60S MOST AREAS.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS THREAT OF CONVECTION MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT.  LEANING MORE ON GFS AND ECMWF BLEND FOR THIS FORECAST AS NAM
SHOWING LARGE RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCIES.  HENCE CONFIDENCE REMAINS
AT MEDIUM DESPITE AGREEMENT IN OTHER GUIDANCE.

SOUTHERN PIECE OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND CANADA LONG WAVE
TROF WILL USHER A COLD FRONT ACROSS SRN WI MON AFTN AND NIGHT.  EWD
PROGRESS OF FRONT HAS SPED UP SLIGHTLY FROM 24 HOURS AGO AND WILL
EXIT SE WI SHORTLY AFTER 06Z/TUE.  INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT WILL HAVE NO PROBLEM TAPING INTO HIGHER COLUMN MOISTURE.
COLUMN PWAT INCREASES TO 1.5 TO 2 ON MONDAY AS SFC DEWPTS INCREASE
TO THE 65 TO 70 RANGE.  STRONGEST SYNOPTIC FORCING ASSOCD WITH MID-
LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND STRONGEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
FARTHERN NORTH OVER NORTHERN WI INTO THE UP.  MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE...IN THE 5-6C RANGE.  BULK SHEAR EXPECTED IN
THE 20 TO 30KT RANGE WITH 10 TO 20KT LOW LEVEL SHEAR.  TOP 5 CIPS
ANALOGS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE AND CWASP ALSO ON THE LOW SIDE.  STILL
SOME CONCERN THAT FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH SRN WI DURING
FAVORABLE LATE AFTN/EVE HOURS...SO FOR NOW MARGINAL SEVERE WX RISK
REASONABLE.  BREEZY SOUTH WINDS AND 925H TEMPS RISING TO AROUND 24C
SHOULD RESULT IN ONE OF THE WARMEST DAYS OF THE SUMMER ON
MONDAY...BEFORE THE CLOUDS INCREASE DURING THE DAY.  AFTER STARTING
OUT ON THE MILD SIDE...DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S.  COULD BE EVEN WARMER IF DEWPOINTS REMAIN A
LITTLE COOLER.  ALSO COUNTING ON INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW TO MID
LEVEL WINDS TO HELP SCOUR OUT THE PERSISTENT SMOKE FROM THE CANADA
WILDFIRES.

DRIER AIR RETURNS MONDAY NIGHT WITH COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS
LIKELY FOR TUESDAY.

.TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS QUIET.  MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON ZONAL FLOW SETTING UP OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST AFTER SOUTHERN CANADA SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST OF THE REGION ON
TUESDAY. MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF WISCONSIN
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS STEERING FLOW REMAINS MOSTLY ZONAL
TO SLIGHTLY WSW THRU SATURDAY.  DEEPER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN NEAR AND
SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY.

WEAKER MID-LEVEL WAVES TRAVERSING JUST NORTH OF THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WL THREATEN SOUTHERN WI WITH SMALL CHANCES FOR PRECIP LATER
IN THE WEEK SO WL CONTINUE TO CARRY LOW POPS AT TIMES FROM WED NGT
THRU SAT.  HOWEVER THREAT HAS BEEN DECREASING.  DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL START OUT BELOW SEASONAL NORMAL FOR MID-JULY BUT WARM TO NEAR
NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS THIS PERIOD AS SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS WILL SET UP A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR
SUNDAY. ANY CONVERGENCE AROUND THE AREA TODAY MINIMAL WITH VERY WEAK
WIND REGIME DUE TO LITTLE OR NO PRESSURE GRADIENT. MESO MODELS
CONTINUE TO HINT AT SPOTTY DEVELOPMENT AS THE AFTN WEARS ON IN ERN
AND NRN CWA SO WILL KEEP THE GOING SMALL POPS. INLAND CU FIELD
DIMINISHES WITH LOSS OF HEATING. SREF CIG/VSBY PROGS NOT SUGGESTING
ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY...THOUGH MET MOS HINTING
AT SOME PATCHY MVFR VSBYS. WILL KEEP OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW ESP WITH
SOME UPTICK IN SOUTHERLY WINDS OFF THE SURFACE AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.

$$
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY/AVIATION...PC
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MBK





000
FXUS63 KMKX 042028
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
330 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

SPC MESO PAGE SHOWS AXIS OF SOMEWHAT HIGHER MLCAPE EXTENDING FROM SE
MN INTO CNTRL WI CLIPPING OUR NRN CWA. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
VERY UNFAVORABLE WITH NON-EXISTENT 0-6KM SHEAR. THERE IS A WEAK AXIS
OF CONVERGENCE THAT IS PRIMARILY LAKE BREEZE INDUCED IN THE FAR
EAST. THERE IS ALSO A WEAK PRESSURE TROUGH AS WELL. NOT PLANNING ON
CARRYING ANY POPS BEYOND 00Z. MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN VERIFYING UP TO
THIS POINT QPF WISE. THE HRRR IS STILL TRYING TO DEVELOP PRECIP
ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY. BEST OVERLAP OF INSTAB AND LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE PER SPC MESO PAGE IS MORE IN THE NE CWA...SO WILL KEEP
SOME SMALL POPS GOING UNTIL 00Z. THE REST OF THE NIGHT LOOKS QUIET
WITH A WEAK FLOW PERSISTING WITH VERY DIFFUSE PRESSURE GRADIENT.
SURFACE HIGH LOOSELY CENTERED FROM IL INTO IN WILL CONTINUE A SLOW
EASTWARD DRIFT. WITH A SOUTHERLY WIND INCREASING OFF THE DECK NOT
EXPECTING FOG TO BE A PROBLEM.

.SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...HIGH

WARM SOUTHERLY TAKES HOLD WITH 925 TEMPS NUDGING UP A FEW DEGREES.
SHOULD SEE WIDESPREAD 80S WITH SOME LAKE COOLING AS WINDS BEND
ONSHORE. CORRIDOR OF LLJ PROGGD TO EXTEND FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
NEWD INTO LAKE SUPR VCNTY. IN THE LOW LEVELS WE WILL REMAIN IN A
BROAD ANTICYCLONIC REGIME WITH ONLY A VERY WEAK/ELONGATED 500
MILLIBAR WAVE EDGING INTO THE WESTERN CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON. SO
DRY FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK GOOD.

.SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

REMAINING WEAK SUBSIDENCE AND A DRY AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE THE QUIET
CONDITIONS ACROSS SRN WI THRU SUNDAY NIGHT.  INCREASING SOUTHERLY
BREEZES IN THE MIXING LEVEL SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES MILD
OVERNIGHT.  OVERNIGHT TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN IN MIDDLE 60S MOST AREAS.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS THREAT OF CONVECTION MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT.  LEANING MORE ON GFS AND ECMWF BLEND FOR THIS FORECAST AS NAM
SHOWING LARGE RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCIES.  HENCE CONFIDENCE REMAINS
AT MEDIUM DESPITE AGREEMENT IN OTHER GUIDANCE.

SOUTHERN PIECE OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND CANADA LONG WAVE
TROF WILL USHER A COLD FRONT ACROSS SRN WI MON AFTN AND NIGHT.  EWD
PROGRESS OF FRONT HAS SPED UP SLIGHTLY FROM 24 HOURS AGO AND WILL
EXIT SE WI SHORTLY AFTER 06Z/TUE.  INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT WILL HAVE NO PROBLEM TAPING INTO HIGHER COLUMN MOISTURE.
COLUMN PWAT INCREASES TO 1.5 TO 2 ON MONDAY AS SFC DEWPTS INCREASE
TO THE 65 TO 70 RANGE.  STRONGEST SYNOPTIC FORCING ASSOCD WITH MID-
LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND STRONGEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
FARTHERN NORTH OVER NORTHERN WI INTO THE UP.  MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE...IN THE 5-6C RANGE.  BULK SHEAR EXPECTED IN
THE 20 TO 30KT RANGE WITH 10 TO 20KT LOW LEVEL SHEAR.  TOP 5 CIPS
ANALOGS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE AND CWASP ALSO ON THE LOW SIDE.  STILL
SOME CONCERN THAT FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH SRN WI DURING
FAVORABLE LATE AFTN/EVE HOURS...SO FOR NOW MARGINAL SEVERE WX RISK
REASONABLE.  BREEZY SOUTH WINDS AND 925H TEMPS RISING TO AROUND 24C
SHOULD RESULT IN ONE OF THE WARMEST DAYS OF THE SUMMER ON
MONDAY...BEFORE THE CLOUDS INCREASE DURING THE DAY.  AFTER STARTING
OUT ON THE MILD SIDE...DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S.  COULD BE EVEN WARMER IF DEWPOINTS REMAIN A
LITTLE COOLER.  ALSO COUNTING ON INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW TO MID
LEVEL WINDS TO HELP SCOUR OUT THE PERSISTENT SMOKE FROM THE CANADA
WILDFIRES.

DRIER AIR RETURNS MONDAY NIGHT WITH COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS
LIKELY FOR TUESDAY.

.TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS QUIET.  MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON ZONAL FLOW SETTING UP OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST AFTER SOUTHERN CANADA SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST OF THE REGION ON
TUESDAY. MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF WISCONSIN
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS STEERING FLOW REMAINS MOSTLY ZONAL
TO SLIGHTLY WSW THRU SATURDAY.  DEEPER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN NEAR AND
SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY.

WEAKER MID-LEVEL WAVES TRAVERSING JUST NORTH OF THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WL THREATEN SOUTHERN WI WITH SMALL CHANCES FOR PRECIP LATER
IN THE WEEK SO WL CONTINUE TO CARRY LOW POPS AT TIMES FROM WED NGT
THRU SAT.  HOWEVER THREAT HAS BEEN DECREASING.  DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL START OUT BELOW SEASONAL NORMAL FOR MID-JULY BUT WARM TO NEAR
NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS THIS PERIOD AS SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS WILL SET UP A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR
SUNDAY. ANY CONVERGENCE AROUND THE AREA TODAY MINIMAL WITH VERY WEAK
WIND REGIME DUE TO LITTLE OR NO PRESSURE GRADIENT. MESO MODELS
CONTINUE TO HINT AT SPOTTY DEVELOPMENT AS THE AFTN WEARS ON IN ERN
AND NRN CWA SO WILL KEEP THE GOING SMALL POPS. INLAND CU FIELD
DIMINISHES WITH LOSS OF HEATING. SREF CIG/VSBY PROGS NOT SUGGESTING
ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY...THOUGH MET MOS HINTING
AT SOME PATCHY MVFR VSBYS. WILL KEEP OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW ESP WITH
SOME UPTICK IN SOUTHERLY WINDS OFF THE SURFACE AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.

$$
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY/AVIATION...PC
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MBK




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