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000
FXUS63 KMKX 222036 CCA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
254 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

.TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG AGAIN TONIGHT...MAINLY CONFINED TO
RIVER VALLEYS AND OTHER LOW-LYING AREAS. TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE MILDER
TONIGHT...AND DEWPOINTS A BIT HIGHER...SO LOWS WILL LIKELY BE AT
LEAST 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT. IT WILL BE VERY PLEASANT
TUESDAY WITH HIGH TEMPS RIGHT NEAR NORMAL VALUES FOR THE FIRST DAY
OF FALL.

.SHORT TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

QUIET WEATHER...WITH DECOUPLING SURFACE WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES
SETTING UP ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG. MAINLY PATCHY FOG...WITH AREAS OF
FOG POSSIBLE IN THE KETTLE MORAINE VALLEYS AND WISCONSIN RIVER
VALLEY...WITH SOME LOCALLY DENSE FOG. SLOW RISE TO 925 MB TEMPS
BRINGS LOWS UP A FEW DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS NIGHTS...GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50...THOUGH A FEW SPOTTY MID 40S IN LOW-LYING
RURAL LOCATIONS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH

MODELS A BIT MORE PERSISTENT WITH WEAKENING SHORT WAVE APPROACHING
FROM THE PLAINS AS A SMALL BRANCH OF THE UPPER JET BREAKS AWAY FROM
THE MAIN FLOW IN CANADA AND DIPS INTO THE DAKOTAS/MINNESOTA. 12Z GFS
AND GEMNH BRING WAVE THROUGH THE STATE WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY...
WHILE 12Z NAM AND ECMWF STALL IT OVER MN/IA/FAR WRN WI AND THEN
RETROGRADE IT BACK TO THE SW AS STRONG UPPER RIDGE FOLDS OVER THE
TOP OF THE WAVE.

LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DRY FLOW AROUND BROAD
HIGH OR FORCING. GFS SOUNDINGS DEVELOP A FEW HUNDRED JOULES OF
ELEVATED CAPE BUT DOES NOT BRING QPF INTO CWA. ECMWF DOES BRUSH THE
NW THIRD WITH LIGHT QPF...BUT HAS A VERY DRY COLUMN BELOW 700 MB ON
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SO WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP PERIOD DRY FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

QUIET...PLEASANT WEATHER CONTINUES AS RIDGING HOLDS IN PLACE THROUGH
THE THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH A PERSISTENT BUT DRY SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST FLOW AROUND THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE EASTERN SURFACE HIGH
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. RING OF FIRE PRECIPITATION REMAINS
WELL AWAY FROM FORECAST AREA AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG TONIGHT...BUT LIKELY CONFINED
TO RIVER VALLEYS AND OTHER LOW-LYING AREAS. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TONIGHT/TUESDAY AND AVIATION...DDV
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...REM




000
FXUS63 KMKX 222036 CCA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
254 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

.TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG AGAIN TONIGHT...MAINLY CONFINED TO
RIVER VALLEYS AND OTHER LOW-LYING AREAS. TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE MILDER
TONIGHT...AND DEWPOINTS A BIT HIGHER...SO LOWS WILL LIKELY BE AT
LEAST 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT. IT WILL BE VERY PLEASANT
TUESDAY WITH HIGH TEMPS RIGHT NEAR NORMAL VALUES FOR THE FIRST DAY
OF FALL.

.SHORT TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

QUIET WEATHER...WITH DECOUPLING SURFACE WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES
SETTING UP ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG. MAINLY PATCHY FOG...WITH AREAS OF
FOG POSSIBLE IN THE KETTLE MORAINE VALLEYS AND WISCONSIN RIVER
VALLEY...WITH SOME LOCALLY DENSE FOG. SLOW RISE TO 925 MB TEMPS
BRINGS LOWS UP A FEW DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS NIGHTS...GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50...THOUGH A FEW SPOTTY MID 40S IN LOW-LYING
RURAL LOCATIONS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH

MODELS A BIT MORE PERSISTENT WITH WEAKENING SHORT WAVE APPROACHING
FROM THE PLAINS AS A SMALL BRANCH OF THE UPPER JET BREAKS AWAY FROM
THE MAIN FLOW IN CANADA AND DIPS INTO THE DAKOTAS/MINNESOTA. 12Z GFS
AND GEMNH BRING WAVE THROUGH THE STATE WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY...
WHILE 12Z NAM AND ECMWF STALL IT OVER MN/IA/FAR WRN WI AND THEN
RETROGRADE IT BACK TO THE SW AS STRONG UPPER RIDGE FOLDS OVER THE
TOP OF THE WAVE.

LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DRY FLOW AROUND BROAD
HIGH OR FORCING. GFS SOUNDINGS DEVELOP A FEW HUNDRED JOULES OF
ELEVATED CAPE BUT DOES NOT BRING QPF INTO CWA. ECMWF DOES BRUSH THE
NW THIRD WITH LIGHT QPF...BUT HAS A VERY DRY COLUMN BELOW 700 MB ON
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SO WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP PERIOD DRY FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

QUIET...PLEASANT WEATHER CONTINUES AS RIDGING HOLDS IN PLACE THROUGH
THE THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH A PERSISTENT BUT DRY SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST FLOW AROUND THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE EASTERN SURFACE HIGH
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. RING OF FIRE PRECIPITATION REMAINS
WELL AWAY FROM FORECAST AREA AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG TONIGHT...BUT LIKELY CONFINED
TO RIVER VALLEYS AND OTHER LOW-LYING AREAS. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TONIGHT/TUESDAY AND AVIATION...DDV
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...REM





000
FXUS63 KMKX 221954
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
254 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG AGAIN TONIGHT...MAINLY CONFINED TO
RIVER VALLEYS AND OTHER LOW-LYING AREAS. TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE MILDER
TONIGHT...AND DEWPOINTS A BIT HIGHER...SO LOWS WILL LIKELY BE AT
LEAST 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT. IT WILL BE VERY PLEASANT
TUESDAY WITH HIGH TEMPS RIGHT NEAR NORMAL VALUES FOR THE FIRST DAY
OF FALL.

.SHORT TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

QUIET WEATHER...WITH DECOUPLING SURFACE WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES
SETTING UP ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG. MAINLY PATCHY FOG...WITH AREAS OF
FOG POSSIBLE IN THE KETTLE MORAINE VALLEYS AND WISCONSIN RIVER
VALLEY...WITH SOME LOCALLY DENSE FOG. SLOW RISE TO 925 MB TEMPS
BRINGS LOWS UP A FEW DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS NIGHTS...GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50...THOUGH A FEW SPOTTY MID 40S IN LOW-LYING
RURAL LOCATIONS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH

MODELS A BIT MORE PERSISTENT WITH WEAKENING SHORT WAVE APPROACHING
FROM THE PLAINS AS A SMALL BRANCH OF THE UPPER JET BREAKS AWAY FROM
THE MAIN FLOW IN CANADA AND DIPS INTO THE DAKOTAS/MINNESOTA. 12Z GFS
AND GEMNH BRING WAVE THROUGH THE STATE WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY...
WHILE 12Z NAM AND ECMWF STALL IT OVER MN/IA/FAR WRN WI AND THEN
RETROGRADE IT BACK TO THE SW AS STRONG UPPER RIDGE FOLDS OVER THE
TOP OF THE WAVE.

LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DRY FLOW AROUND BROAD
HIGH OR FORCING. GFS SOUNDINGS DEVELOP A FEW HUNDRED JOULES OF
ELEVATED CAPE BUT DOES NOT BRING QPF INTO CWA. ECMWF DOES BRUSH THE
NW THIRD WITH LIGHT QPF...BUT HAS A VERY DRY COLUMN BELOW 700 MB ON
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SO WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP PERIOD DRY FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

QUIET...PLEASANT WEATHER CONTINUES AS RIDGING HOLDS IN PLACE THROUGH
THE THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH A PERSISTENT BUT DRY SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST FLOW AROUND THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE EASTERN SURFACE HIGH
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. RING OF FIRE PRECIPITATION REMAINS
WELL AWAY FROM FORECAST AREA AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG TONIGHT...BUT LIKELY CONFINED
TO RIVER VALLEYS AND OTHER LOW-LYING AREAS. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DDV
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...REM





000
FXUS63 KMKX 221954
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
254 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG AGAIN TONIGHT...MAINLY CONFINED TO
RIVER VALLEYS AND OTHER LOW-LYING AREAS. TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE MILDER
TONIGHT...AND DEWPOINTS A BIT HIGHER...SO LOWS WILL LIKELY BE AT
LEAST 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT. IT WILL BE VERY PLEASANT
TUESDAY WITH HIGH TEMPS RIGHT NEAR NORMAL VALUES FOR THE FIRST DAY
OF FALL.

.SHORT TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

QUIET WEATHER...WITH DECOUPLING SURFACE WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES
SETTING UP ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG. MAINLY PATCHY FOG...WITH AREAS OF
FOG POSSIBLE IN THE KETTLE MORAINE VALLEYS AND WISCONSIN RIVER
VALLEY...WITH SOME LOCALLY DENSE FOG. SLOW RISE TO 925 MB TEMPS
BRINGS LOWS UP A FEW DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS NIGHTS...GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50...THOUGH A FEW SPOTTY MID 40S IN LOW-LYING
RURAL LOCATIONS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH

MODELS A BIT MORE PERSISTENT WITH WEAKENING SHORT WAVE APPROACHING
FROM THE PLAINS AS A SMALL BRANCH OF THE UPPER JET BREAKS AWAY FROM
THE MAIN FLOW IN CANADA AND DIPS INTO THE DAKOTAS/MINNESOTA. 12Z GFS
AND GEMNH BRING WAVE THROUGH THE STATE WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY...
WHILE 12Z NAM AND ECMWF STALL IT OVER MN/IA/FAR WRN WI AND THEN
RETROGRADE IT BACK TO THE SW AS STRONG UPPER RIDGE FOLDS OVER THE
TOP OF THE WAVE.

LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DRY FLOW AROUND BROAD
HIGH OR FORCING. GFS SOUNDINGS DEVELOP A FEW HUNDRED JOULES OF
ELEVATED CAPE BUT DOES NOT BRING QPF INTO CWA. ECMWF DOES BRUSH THE
NW THIRD WITH LIGHT QPF...BUT HAS A VERY DRY COLUMN BELOW 700 MB ON
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SO WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP PERIOD DRY FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

QUIET...PLEASANT WEATHER CONTINUES AS RIDGING HOLDS IN PLACE THROUGH
THE THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH A PERSISTENT BUT DRY SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST FLOW AROUND THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE EASTERN SURFACE HIGH
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. RING OF FIRE PRECIPITATION REMAINS
WELL AWAY FROM FORECAST AREA AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG TONIGHT...BUT LIKELY CONFINED
TO RIVER VALLEYS AND OTHER LOW-LYING AREAS. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DDV
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...REM




000
FXUS63 KMKX 221447 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
947 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

.UPDATE...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES UNDER HIGH PRESSURE
TODAY...WITH TEMPERATURES JUST A TAD UNDER NORMAL VALUES FOR LATE
SEPTEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG
TONIGHT...BUT LIKELY CONFINED TO RIVER VALLEYS AND OTHER LOW-
LYING AREAS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
TUESDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

UPPER LEVEL JET AXIS HAS NOW SHIFTED OFF TO THE EAST...ALLOWING
UPSTREAM RIDGING TO MOVE EWD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND WESTERN
GTLAKES. A QUIET PERIOD LIES AHEAD THROUGH TONIGHT. DRIER AIR AND
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AT AND SLIGHTLY BELOW THE INVERSION WILL
PREVENT FOG EARLY THIS MRNG...EXCEPT IN VERY SUSCEPTIBLE AREAS
AND WI RVR VALLEY.

SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID AIR WILL RETURN TO SRN WI TODAY AND LINGER
THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME PATCHY LATE NIGHT
FOG...BUT ONCE AGAIN MIXINESS AT AND JUST BELOW THE BOUNDARY LEVEL
SHOULD PREVENT FOG FROM BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD AND THICKER. FOR
NOW WL HOLD OFF ON INTRODUCING ANY LATE NIGHT FOG EXCEPT IN WI RVR
VALLEY.

SHORT TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING EAST OF
THE REGION DURING THIS TIME. 500 MB RIDGE AXIS ON TUESDAY SHIFTS
EAST TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SLOWLY EAST
INTO MINNESOTA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS FEATURE
DISSIPATES LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT JUST TO THE WEST OF THE AREA.

AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM NAM/GFS ARE FAIRLY DRY DURING THIS
TIME. THUS...JUST SOME CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE 500 MB
SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE AREA. KEPT PATCHY FOG IN RIVER
VALLEY AREAS AND LOW SPOTS LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND DECENT INVERSION OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MILD DURING THE DAY...WITH COOL NIGHTS. ONSHORE WINDS EACH DAY
WILL KEEP LAKESHORE AREAS COOLER.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH.

GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW A 500 MB HIGH DEVELOPING OVER THE
REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...AS THE SURFACE HIGH REMAINS EAST OF
THE REGION. THUS...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO
SATURDAY...WITH MILD DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS CONTINUING. ONSHORE
WINDS EACH DAY WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP LAKESHORE AREAS COOL.

MODELS THEN START TO DIFFER BY SUNDAY...AS GFS BRINGS 500 MB
VORTICITY MAXIMA NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION...WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS
THIS FEATURE WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA. FOR NOW...KEPT SUNDAY DRY.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR THAT SETTLED INTO SRN WI LATE SUNDAY ALONG
WITH BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING HAS PREVENTED SIGNIFICANT FOG
FORMATION. MAY SEE SOME LIGHT FOG LATER TONIGHT...AS SLIGHTLY
WARMER AND MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR RETURNS TO THE REGION.

HOWEVER...STILL EXPECTING SOME MIXING AT AND ABOVE LATE NIGHT
INVERSION. FOR NOW...WL HOLD OFF ON INTRODUCING ANY FOG AT
SUSCEPTIBLE TAF SITES.

MARINE...

WINDS HAVE BEEN BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLD LEVELS SINCE SUNDAY
EVENING...WHICH WILL HAVE ALLOWED WAVE HEIGHTS TO SETTLE BELOW 5
FEET BY EARLY THIS MORNING. HENCE WL CANCEL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THAT WAS IN EFFECT UNTIL 09Z.

A QUIET PERIOD LIES AHEAD THIS WEEK...WITH WEAK STEERING WINDS
AND OCCASIONAL DAYTIME ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DDV
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WOOD




000
FXUS63 KMKX 220753
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
253 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

UPPER LEVEL JET AXIS HAS NOW SHIFTED OFF TO THE EAST...ALLOWING
UPSTREAM RIDGING TO MOVE EWD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND WESTERN
GTLAKES. A QUIET PERIOD LIES AHEAD THROUGH TONIGHT. DRIER AIR AND
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AT AND SLIGHTLY BELOW THE INVERSION WILL
PREVENT FOG EARLY THIS MRNG...EXCEPT IN VERY SUSCEPTIBLE AREAS
AND WI RVR VALLEY.

SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID AIR WILL RETURN TO SRN WI TODAY AND LINGER
THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME PATCHY LATE NIGHT
FOG...BUT ONCE AGAIN MIXINESS AT AND JUST BELOW THE BOUNDARY LEVEL
SHOULD PREVENT FOG FROM BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD AND THICKER. FOR
NOW WL HOLD OFF ON INTRODUCING ANY LATE NIGHT FOG EXCEPT IN WI RVR
VALLEY.

.SHORT TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING EAST OF
THE REGION DURING THIS TIME. 500 MB RIDGE AXIS ON TUESDAY SHIFTS
EAST TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SLOWLY EAST
INTO MINNESOTA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS FEATURE
DISSIPATES LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT JUST TO THE WEST OF THE AREA.

AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM NAM/GFS ARE FAIRLY DRY DURING THIS
TIME. THUS...JUST SOME CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE 500 MB
SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE AREA. KEPT PATCHY FOG IN RIVER
VALLEY AREAS AND LOW SPOTS LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND DECENT INVERSION OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MILD DURING THE DAY...WITH COOL NIGHTS. ONSHORE WINDS EACH DAY
WILL KEEP LAKESHORE AREAS COOLER.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH.

GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW A 500 MB HIGH DEVELOPING OVER THE
REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...AS THE SURFACE HIGH REMAINS EAST OF
THE REGION. THUS...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO
SATURDAY...WITH MILD DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS CONTINUING. ONSHORE
WINDS EACH DAY WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP LAKESHORE AREAS COOL.

MODELS THEN START TO DIFFER BY SUNDAY...AS GFS BRINGS 500 MB
VORTICITY MAXIMA NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION...WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS
THIS FEATURE WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA. FOR NOW...KEPT SUNDAY DRY.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR THAT SETTLED INTO SRN WI LATE SUNDAY ALONG
WITH BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING HAS PREVENTED SIGNIFICANT FOG
FORMATION. MAY SEE SOME LIGHT FOG LATER TONIGHT...AS SLIGHTLY
WARMER AND MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR RETURNS TO THE REGION.

HOWEVER...STILL EXPECTING SOME MIXING AT AND ABOVE LATE NIGHT
INVERSION. FOR NOW...WL HOLD OFF ON INTRODUCING ANY FOG AT
SUSCEPTIBLE TAF SITES.

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS HAVE BEEN BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLD LEVELS SINCE SUNDAY
EVENING...WHICH WILL HAVE ALLOWED WAVE HEIGHTS TO SETTLE BELOW 5
FEET BY EARLY THIS MORNING. HENCE WL CANCEL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THAT WAS IN EFFECT UNTIL 09Z.

A QUIET PERIOD LIES AHEAD THIS WEEK...WITH WEAK STEERING WINDS
AND OCCASIONAL DAYTIME ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.

&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WOOD





000
FXUS63 KMKX 220218
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
918 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.UPDATE...

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...A DRY AIRMASS WILL PREVAIL OVER SRN WI FOR
MON-TUE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH PERHAPS FEW040-050 FAIR
WX CUMULUS DURING THE AFTERNOONS.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014/

TONIGHT AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN
BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH. SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR BY
EARLY EVENING AND REMAIN THAT WAY INTO MONDAY. KEPT SOME PATCHY FOG
GOING TONIGHT...EXCEPT FOR IN THE EAST WHERE WINDS WILL BE A BIT
HIGHER. NOT SOLD ON FOG MOST PLACES THOUGH...AS MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE
PRETTY DRY. BEST CHANCE IS IN THE WEST TOWARD THE APPROACHING
HIGH...PARTICULARLY IN THE WISCONSIN RIVER VALLEY.

IT WILL BE A COOL NIGHT TONIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOW
40S EXPECTED. SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPS RECOVER TO JUST A COUPLE DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL MONDAY UNDER PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

SHORT TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

BROAD MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. AS
UPPER JET ARCS WELL INTO CANADA. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS TURN SOUTH AS
LARGE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD SLIDES EAST AND EXPANDS TO COVER ALMOST THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE U.S. BY 12Z WED.

MODELS EVEN DRIER WITH 500 MB SHORT WAVE THAT WEAKENS AS IT MOVES
TOWARD THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH MOST OF THE
STATE REMAINING DRY...AND ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES IN THE FAR NORTHWEST
WEDNESDAY.

925 MB TEMPERATURES SLOWLY  MODIFY UPWARD...YIELDING HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S EAST TO LOWER 70S WEST TUESDAY...WITH LOW TO MID 70S
WEDNESDAY...STAYING A BIT COOLER ALONG THE LAKE WITH MORE OF A SE
WIND.

LOWS COOL INTO THE MID 40S AWAY FROM THE LAKE MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
MID-UPPER 40S TUESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT PATCHY FOG...WITH AREAS OF FOG
IN THE RIVER VALLEYS AND RURAL LOW SPOTS BOTH NIGHTS...WITH BETTER
COVERAGE POTENTIAL MONDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHTER BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS
PROVIDING LITTLE MIXING AT TOP OF NEAR-SURFACE INVERSION.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE
HIGH.

QUIET...PLEASANT WEATHER AS RIDGING HOLDS IN PLACE THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND...WITH A PERSISTENT BUT DRY SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST FLOW AROUND THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE EASTERN SURFACE HIGH
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. VERY SLIGHT UPWARD MODIFICATION OF
TEMPERATURES WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 70S...AND LOWS IN THE
LOW TO MID 50S.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WILL EXIT THE SOUTHEAST BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL THEN TURN MOSTLY CLEAR FOR THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES. SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE
LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE IS IN THE
WEST...PARTICULARLY IN THE WISCONSIN RIVER VALLEY. NOT HIGH
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO PUT LOWER VSBYS IN ANY TAFS THOUGH.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL MONDAY UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

MARINE...

WILL KEEP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GOING UNTIL 09Z EXPIRATION TIME
TONIGHT. WIND GUSTS WILL FALL BELOW CRITERIA EARLY THIS
EVENING...BUT SOME HIGHER WAVES WILL LINGER INTO THE NIGHT. THE
HIGHEST WAVES WILL LIKELY BE TOWARD OPEN WATERS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT MONDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GEHRING
TONIGHT/MONDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...DDV
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...REM





000
FXUS63 KMKX 220218
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
918 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.UPDATE...

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...A DRY AIRMASS WILL PREVAIL OVER SRN WI FOR
MON-TUE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH PERHAPS FEW040-050 FAIR
WX CUMULUS DURING THE AFTERNOONS.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014/

TONIGHT AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN
BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH. SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR BY
EARLY EVENING AND REMAIN THAT WAY INTO MONDAY. KEPT SOME PATCHY FOG
GOING TONIGHT...EXCEPT FOR IN THE EAST WHERE WINDS WILL BE A BIT
HIGHER. NOT SOLD ON FOG MOST PLACES THOUGH...AS MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE
PRETTY DRY. BEST CHANCE IS IN THE WEST TOWARD THE APPROACHING
HIGH...PARTICULARLY IN THE WISCONSIN RIVER VALLEY.

IT WILL BE A COOL NIGHT TONIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOW
40S EXPECTED. SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPS RECOVER TO JUST A COUPLE DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL MONDAY UNDER PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

SHORT TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

BROAD MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. AS
UPPER JET ARCS WELL INTO CANADA. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS TURN SOUTH AS
LARGE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD SLIDES EAST AND EXPANDS TO COVER ALMOST THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE U.S. BY 12Z WED.

MODELS EVEN DRIER WITH 500 MB SHORT WAVE THAT WEAKENS AS IT MOVES
TOWARD THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH MOST OF THE
STATE REMAINING DRY...AND ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES IN THE FAR NORTHWEST
WEDNESDAY.

925 MB TEMPERATURES SLOWLY  MODIFY UPWARD...YIELDING HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S EAST TO LOWER 70S WEST TUESDAY...WITH LOW TO MID 70S
WEDNESDAY...STAYING A BIT COOLER ALONG THE LAKE WITH MORE OF A SE
WIND.

LOWS COOL INTO THE MID 40S AWAY FROM THE LAKE MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
MID-UPPER 40S TUESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT PATCHY FOG...WITH AREAS OF FOG
IN THE RIVER VALLEYS AND RURAL LOW SPOTS BOTH NIGHTS...WITH BETTER
COVERAGE POTENTIAL MONDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHTER BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS
PROVIDING LITTLE MIXING AT TOP OF NEAR-SURFACE INVERSION.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE
HIGH.

QUIET...PLEASANT WEATHER AS RIDGING HOLDS IN PLACE THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND...WITH A PERSISTENT BUT DRY SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST FLOW AROUND THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE EASTERN SURFACE HIGH
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. VERY SLIGHT UPWARD MODIFICATION OF
TEMPERATURES WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 70S...AND LOWS IN THE
LOW TO MID 50S.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WILL EXIT THE SOUTHEAST BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL THEN TURN MOSTLY CLEAR FOR THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES. SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE
LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE IS IN THE
WEST...PARTICULARLY IN THE WISCONSIN RIVER VALLEY. NOT HIGH
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO PUT LOWER VSBYS IN ANY TAFS THOUGH.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL MONDAY UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

MARINE...

WILL KEEP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GOING UNTIL 09Z EXPIRATION TIME
TONIGHT. WIND GUSTS WILL FALL BELOW CRITERIA EARLY THIS
EVENING...BUT SOME HIGHER WAVES WILL LINGER INTO THE NIGHT. THE
HIGHEST WAVES WILL LIKELY BE TOWARD OPEN WATERS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT MONDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GEHRING
TONIGHT/MONDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...DDV
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...REM




000
FXUS63 KMKX 212012
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
312 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.TONIGHT AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN
BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH. SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR BY
EARLY EVENING AND REMAIN THAT WAY INTO MONDAY. KEPT SOME PATCHY FOG
GOING TONIGHT...EXCEPT FOR IN THE EAST WHERE WINDS WILL BE A BIT
HIGHER. NOT SOLD ON FOG MOST PLACES THOUGH...AS MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE
PRETTY DRY. BEST CHANCE IS IN THE WEST TOWARD THE APPROACHING
HIGH...PARTICULARLY IN THE WISCONSIN RIVER VALLEY.

IT WILL BE A COOL NIGHT TONIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOW
40S EXPECTED. SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPS RECOVER TO JUST A COUPLE DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL MONDAY UNDER PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

.SHORT TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

BROAD MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. AS
UPPER JET ARCS WELL INTO CANADA. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS TURN SOUTH AS
LARGE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD SLIDES EAST AND EXPANDS TO COVER ALMOST THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE U.S. BY 12Z WED.

MODELS EVEN DRIER WITH 500 MB SHORT WAVE THAT WEAKENS AS IT MOVES
TOWARD THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH MOST OF THE
STATE REMAINING DRY...AND ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES IN THE FAR NORTHWEST
WEDNESDAY.

925 MB TEMPERATURES SLOWLY  MODIFY UPWARD...YIELDING HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S EAST TO LOWER 70S WEST TUESDAY...WITH LOW TO MID 70S
WEDNESDAY...STAYING A BIT COOLER ALONG THE LAKE WITH MORE OF A SE
WIND.

LOWS COOL INTO THE MID 40S AWAY FROM THE LAKE MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
MID-UPPER 40S TUESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT PATCHY FOG...WITH AREAS OF FOG
IN THE RIVER VALLEYS AND RURAL LOW SPOTS BOTH NIGHTS...WITH BETTER
COVERAGE POTENTIAL MONDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHTER BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS
PROVIDING LITTLE MIXING AT TOP OF NEAR-SURFACE INVERSION.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE
HIGH.

QUIET...PLEASANT WEATHER AS RIDGING HOLDS IN PLACE THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND...WITH A PERSISTENT BUT DRY SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST FLOW AROUND THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE EASTERN SURFACE HIGH
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. VERY SLIGHT UPWARD MODIFICATION OF
TEMPERATURES WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 70S...AND LOWS IN THE
LOW TO MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WILL EXIT THE SOUTHEAST BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL THEN TURN MOSTLY CLEAR FOR THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES. SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE
LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE IS IN THE
WEST...PARTICULARLY IN THE WISCONSIN RIVER VALLEY. NOT HIGH
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO PUT LOWER VSBYS IN ANY TAFS THOUGH.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL MONDAY UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.MARINE...

WILL KEEP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GOING UNTIL 09Z EXPIRATION TIME
TONIGHT. WIND GUSTS WILL FALL BELOW CRITERIA EARLY THIS
EVENING...BUT SOME HIGHER WAVES WILL LINGER INTO THE NIGHT. THE
HIGHEST WAVES WILL LIKELY BE TOWARD OPEN WATERS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT MONDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

TONIGHT/MONDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...DDV
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...REM




000
FXUS63 KMKX 212012
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
312 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.TONIGHT AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN
BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH. SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR BY
EARLY EVENING AND REMAIN THAT WAY INTO MONDAY. KEPT SOME PATCHY FOG
GOING TONIGHT...EXCEPT FOR IN THE EAST WHERE WINDS WILL BE A BIT
HIGHER. NOT SOLD ON FOG MOST PLACES THOUGH...AS MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE
PRETTY DRY. BEST CHANCE IS IN THE WEST TOWARD THE APPROACHING
HIGH...PARTICULARLY IN THE WISCONSIN RIVER VALLEY.

IT WILL BE A COOL NIGHT TONIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOW
40S EXPECTED. SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPS RECOVER TO JUST A COUPLE DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL MONDAY UNDER PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

.SHORT TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

BROAD MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. AS
UPPER JET ARCS WELL INTO CANADA. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS TURN SOUTH AS
LARGE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD SLIDES EAST AND EXPANDS TO COVER ALMOST THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE U.S. BY 12Z WED.

MODELS EVEN DRIER WITH 500 MB SHORT WAVE THAT WEAKENS AS IT MOVES
TOWARD THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH MOST OF THE
STATE REMAINING DRY...AND ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES IN THE FAR NORTHWEST
WEDNESDAY.

925 MB TEMPERATURES SLOWLY  MODIFY UPWARD...YIELDING HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S EAST TO LOWER 70S WEST TUESDAY...WITH LOW TO MID 70S
WEDNESDAY...STAYING A BIT COOLER ALONG THE LAKE WITH MORE OF A SE
WIND.

LOWS COOL INTO THE MID 40S AWAY FROM THE LAKE MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
MID-UPPER 40S TUESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT PATCHY FOG...WITH AREAS OF FOG
IN THE RIVER VALLEYS AND RURAL LOW SPOTS BOTH NIGHTS...WITH BETTER
COVERAGE POTENTIAL MONDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHTER BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS
PROVIDING LITTLE MIXING AT TOP OF NEAR-SURFACE INVERSION.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE
HIGH.

QUIET...PLEASANT WEATHER AS RIDGING HOLDS IN PLACE THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND...WITH A PERSISTENT BUT DRY SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST FLOW AROUND THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE EASTERN SURFACE HIGH
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. VERY SLIGHT UPWARD MODIFICATION OF
TEMPERATURES WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 70S...AND LOWS IN THE
LOW TO MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WILL EXIT THE SOUTHEAST BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL THEN TURN MOSTLY CLEAR FOR THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES. SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE
LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE IS IN THE
WEST...PARTICULARLY IN THE WISCONSIN RIVER VALLEY. NOT HIGH
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO PUT LOWER VSBYS IN ANY TAFS THOUGH.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL MONDAY UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.MARINE...

WILL KEEP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GOING UNTIL 09Z EXPIRATION TIME
TONIGHT. WIND GUSTS WILL FALL BELOW CRITERIA EARLY THIS
EVENING...BUT SOME HIGHER WAVES WILL LINGER INTO THE NIGHT. THE
HIGHEST WAVES WILL LIKELY BE TOWARD OPEN WATERS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT MONDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

TONIGHT/MONDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...DDV
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...REM





000
FXUS63 KMKX 211458 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
958 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.UPDATE...

A SURFACE TROUGH/FRONT IS CURRENTLY DROPPING THROUGH THE
AREA...KICKING OFF A FEW SHOWERS IN ADDITION TO AREAS OF DRIZZLE.
A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS IS MOVING IN BEHIND THE TROUGH...WITH
PRECIP EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END BY EARLY OR MID AFTERNOON.
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PROBABLY LINGER THROUGH THE DAYTIME
HOURS BASED ON NEWEST MODEL SOUNDINGS. HIGH TEMPERATURES SEEM TO
BE IN ORDER FOR THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH MAY HAVE TO BUMP THEM DOWN
A TAD IF THE SUN STRUGGLES TO PEEK OUT.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

EXPECT PRECIP TO COME TO AN END BY EARLY OR MID AFTERNOON BEHIND A
DEPARTING SURFACE TROUGH/FRONT. SEEING MVFR CONDITIONS MOST PLACES
RIGHT NOW. SHOULD SEE AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY LATE AFTERNOON...AS
DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA.

WILL CONSIDER SOME LOWER VSBYS LATER TONIGHT DUE TO SOME POSSIBLE
PATCHY FOG...THOUGH NOT SOLD ON THE FOG BASED ON LATEST MODEL
SOUNDINGS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014/

TODAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

SECONDARY PIECE OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY OVER CENTRAL MN WL TRACK
SOUTHEAST...CONTRIBUTING TO FURTHER AMPLIFICATION OF LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH GTLAKES TODAY.

DESPITE STRONGEST FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM OFF TO THE EAST...ENOUGH
MOISTURE IN PLACE AND EXPECTED WEAKER LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW TO
MID LEVEL DEFORMATION SWINGING THROUGH TO GENERATE ISOLD TO SCT -
SHRA THIS MRNG. BEST CHANCE FOR
-SHRA IN THE KFLD/KSBM AREAS...SO BUMPED UP POPS TO LIKELY FOR
SEVERAL HOURS.

DEFORMATION RAPIDLY WEAKENS AND SLIDES SOUTH OF THE AREA BY EARLY
AFTN. SO...BY MID-LATE AFTN...DRY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH
CLEARING. STRATUS ASSOCD WITH DEFORMATION TO CONTINUE SAGGING SOUTH
INTO SRN WI THIS MRNG.

TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

UPPER LEVEL JET AXIS SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT...ALLOWING
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW TO SETUP OVER WRN GTLAKES. HENCE...QUIET AND DRY
WEATHER RETURNS.

HAVE TO WORRY ABOUT FOG LATER IN THE NIGHT...AS SFC WINDS DECOUPLE
AS HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER...FOG SHOULD REMAIN
MOSTLY LIGHT DUE TO SOME BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AT INVERSION
LEVEL...AND DRIER DEW POINTS SETTLING IN FROM THE NORTH.

OVERNIGHT TEMPS WL FALL INTO THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S...RESULTING IN
A BLEND OF FOG AND DEW. WL HOLD OFF ON ANY FROST MENTION...DUE TO
MILD NEAR SFC TEMPS.

SHORT TERM...MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING EASTWARD
FROM SOUTHWESTERN IOWA TO THE NORTHEASTERN USA. A RIDGE AT 500 MB
SLOWLY MOVES EAST INTO THE AREA AS WELL. AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS
DURING THIS TIME ARE QUITE DRY ACROSS THE AREA. THESE FEATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING QUIET WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD SLOWLY MODIFY DURING THIS PERIOD...AS STEADY
WARM AIR ADVECTION HELPS BRING MILDER AIR INTO THE AREA. LIGHT
WINDS AND STRONG INVERSION EACH NIGHT SHOULD BRING FOG TO THE
WISCONSIN RIVER VALLEY AND LOW LYING AREAS.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY....FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH.

GFS/ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLOWLY MOVING EAST INTO
THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY BEFORE DISSIPATING. ANY
SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THIS FEATURE SHOULD REMAIN TO THE WEST OF THE
AREA.

OTHERWISE...500 MB HIGH DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS SHOULD ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE EAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE...AND KEEPS THE AREA DRY. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR MILD DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS TO OCCUR DURING THIS
PERIOD...A BEAUTIFUL STRETCH OF WEATHER FOR LATE SEPTEMBER.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

PERIOD OF STRATUS WL AFFECT TAF SITES THIS MRNG...GRADUALLY LIFTING
THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS WL BE POSSIBLE THIS MRNG INTO THE
EARLY AFTN AS WELL. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT SFC WINDS SHOULD RESULT
IN PATCHY MOSTLY LIGHT FOG LATER TONIGHT.

MARINE...

TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF APPROACHING CDFNT WL RESULT IN
GUSTY WEST WINDS THIS MRNG. BACKDOOR CDFNT CURRENTLY SOUTH OF KSUE
EXTENDING EAST TO LOW PRESSURE OVER LWR MI WL SWEEP SWD ACROSS
NEARSHORE WATERS THIS MRNG.

MARINERS SHOULD EXPECT ABRUPT WIND SHIFT FROM THE WEST TO THE NNE
BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z THIS MRNG...WITH GUSTY WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
WL CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY INTO TONIGHT.

CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEPTH TO REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA...WITH DELTA-T
AROUND 11C THIS MRNG...SO THREAT FOR WATERSPOUT ACTIVITY ALONG CDFNT
THIS MRNG REMAINS VERY LOW.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT MONDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DDV
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WOOD




000
FXUS63 KMKX 211458 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
958 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.UPDATE...

A SURFACE TROUGH/FRONT IS CURRENTLY DROPPING THROUGH THE
AREA...KICKING OFF A FEW SHOWERS IN ADDITION TO AREAS OF DRIZZLE.
A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS IS MOVING IN BEHIND THE TROUGH...WITH
PRECIP EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END BY EARLY OR MID AFTERNOON.
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PROBABLY LINGER THROUGH THE DAYTIME
HOURS BASED ON NEWEST MODEL SOUNDINGS. HIGH TEMPERATURES SEEM TO
BE IN ORDER FOR THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH MAY HAVE TO BUMP THEM DOWN
A TAD IF THE SUN STRUGGLES TO PEEK OUT.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

EXPECT PRECIP TO COME TO AN END BY EARLY OR MID AFTERNOON BEHIND A
DEPARTING SURFACE TROUGH/FRONT. SEEING MVFR CONDITIONS MOST PLACES
RIGHT NOW. SHOULD SEE AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY LATE AFTERNOON...AS
DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA.

WILL CONSIDER SOME LOWER VSBYS LATER TONIGHT DUE TO SOME POSSIBLE
PATCHY FOG...THOUGH NOT SOLD ON THE FOG BASED ON LATEST MODEL
SOUNDINGS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014/

TODAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

SECONDARY PIECE OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY OVER CENTRAL MN WL TRACK
SOUTHEAST...CONTRIBUTING TO FURTHER AMPLIFICATION OF LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH GTLAKES TODAY.

DESPITE STRONGEST FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM OFF TO THE EAST...ENOUGH
MOISTURE IN PLACE AND EXPECTED WEAKER LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW TO
MID LEVEL DEFORMATION SWINGING THROUGH TO GENERATE ISOLD TO SCT -
SHRA THIS MRNG. BEST CHANCE FOR
-SHRA IN THE KFLD/KSBM AREAS...SO BUMPED UP POPS TO LIKELY FOR
SEVERAL HOURS.

DEFORMATION RAPIDLY WEAKENS AND SLIDES SOUTH OF THE AREA BY EARLY
AFTN. SO...BY MID-LATE AFTN...DRY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH
CLEARING. STRATUS ASSOCD WITH DEFORMATION TO CONTINUE SAGGING SOUTH
INTO SRN WI THIS MRNG.

TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

UPPER LEVEL JET AXIS SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT...ALLOWING
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW TO SETUP OVER WRN GTLAKES. HENCE...QUIET AND DRY
WEATHER RETURNS.

HAVE TO WORRY ABOUT FOG LATER IN THE NIGHT...AS SFC WINDS DECOUPLE
AS HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER...FOG SHOULD REMAIN
MOSTLY LIGHT DUE TO SOME BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AT INVERSION
LEVEL...AND DRIER DEW POINTS SETTLING IN FROM THE NORTH.

OVERNIGHT TEMPS WL FALL INTO THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S...RESULTING IN
A BLEND OF FOG AND DEW. WL HOLD OFF ON ANY FROST MENTION...DUE TO
MILD NEAR SFC TEMPS.

SHORT TERM...MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING EASTWARD
FROM SOUTHWESTERN IOWA TO THE NORTHEASTERN USA. A RIDGE AT 500 MB
SLOWLY MOVES EAST INTO THE AREA AS WELL. AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS
DURING THIS TIME ARE QUITE DRY ACROSS THE AREA. THESE FEATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING QUIET WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD SLOWLY MODIFY DURING THIS PERIOD...AS STEADY
WARM AIR ADVECTION HELPS BRING MILDER AIR INTO THE AREA. LIGHT
WINDS AND STRONG INVERSION EACH NIGHT SHOULD BRING FOG TO THE
WISCONSIN RIVER VALLEY AND LOW LYING AREAS.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY....FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH.

GFS/ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLOWLY MOVING EAST INTO
THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY BEFORE DISSIPATING. ANY
SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THIS FEATURE SHOULD REMAIN TO THE WEST OF THE
AREA.

OTHERWISE...500 MB HIGH DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS SHOULD ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE EAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE...AND KEEPS THE AREA DRY. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR MILD DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS TO OCCUR DURING THIS
PERIOD...A BEAUTIFUL STRETCH OF WEATHER FOR LATE SEPTEMBER.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

PERIOD OF STRATUS WL AFFECT TAF SITES THIS MRNG...GRADUALLY LIFTING
THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS WL BE POSSIBLE THIS MRNG INTO THE
EARLY AFTN AS WELL. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT SFC WINDS SHOULD RESULT
IN PATCHY MOSTLY LIGHT FOG LATER TONIGHT.

MARINE...

TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF APPROACHING CDFNT WL RESULT IN
GUSTY WEST WINDS THIS MRNG. BACKDOOR CDFNT CURRENTLY SOUTH OF KSUE
EXTENDING EAST TO LOW PRESSURE OVER LWR MI WL SWEEP SWD ACROSS
NEARSHORE WATERS THIS MRNG.

MARINERS SHOULD EXPECT ABRUPT WIND SHIFT FROM THE WEST TO THE NNE
BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z THIS MRNG...WITH GUSTY WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
WL CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY INTO TONIGHT.

CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEPTH TO REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA...WITH DELTA-T
AROUND 11C THIS MRNG...SO THREAT FOR WATERSPOUT ACTIVITY ALONG CDFNT
THIS MRNG REMAINS VERY LOW.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT MONDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DDV
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WOOD





000
FXUS63 KMKX 210848 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
348 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.TODAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

SECONDARY PIECE OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY OVER CENTRAL MN WL TRACK
SOUTHEAST...CONTRIBUTING TO FURTHER AMPLIFICATION OF LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH GTLAKES TODAY.

DESPITE STRONGEST FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM OFF TO THE EAST...ENOUGH
MOISTURE IN PLACE AND EXPECTED WEAKER LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW TO
MID LEVEL DEFORMATION SWINGING THROUGH TO GENERATE ISOLD TO SCT -
SHRA THIS MRNG. BEST CHANCE FOR
-SHRA IN THE KFLD/KSBM AREAS...SO BUMPED UP POPS TO LIKELY FOR
SEVERAL HOURS.

DEFORMATION RAPIDLY WEAKENS AND SLIDES SOUTH OF THE AREA BY EARLY
AFTN. SO...BY MID-LATE AFTN...DRY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH
CLEARING. STRATUS ASSOCD WITH DEFORMATION TO CONTINUE SAGGING SOUTH
INTO SRN WI THIS MRNG.

.TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

UPPER LEVEL JET AXIS SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT...ALLOWING
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW TO SETUP OVER WRN GTLAKES. HENCE...QUIET AND DRY
WEATHER RETURNS.

HAVE TO WORRY ABOUT FOG LATER IN THE NIGHT...AS SFC WINDS DECOUPLE
AS HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER...FOG SHOULD REMAIN
MOSTLY LIGHT DUE TO SOME BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AT INVERSION
LEVEL...AND DRIER DEW POINTS SETTLING IN FROM THE NORTH.

OVERNIGHT TEMPS WL FALL INTO THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S...RESULTING IN
A BLEND OF FOG AND DEW. WL HOLD OFF ON ANY FROST MENTION...DUE TO
MILD NEAR SFC TEMPS.

.SHORT TERM...MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING EASTWARD
FROM SOUTHWESTERN IOWA TO THE NORTHEASTERN USA. A RIDGE AT 500 MB
SLOWLY MOVES EAST INTO THE AREA AS WELL. AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS
DURING THIS TIME ARE QUITE DRY ACROSS THE AREA. THESE FEATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING QUIET WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD SLOWLY MODIFY DURING THIS PERIOD...AS STEADY
WARM AIR ADVECTION HELPS BRING MILDER AIR INTO THE AREA. LIGHT
WINDS AND STRONG INVERSION EACH NIGHT SHOULD BRING FOG TO THE
WISCONSIN RIVER VALLEY AND LOW LYING AREAS.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY....FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH.

GFS/ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLOWLY MOVING EAST INTO
THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY BEFORE DISSIPATING. ANY
SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THIS FEATURE SHOULD REMAIN TO THE WEST OF THE
AREA.

OTHERWISE...500 MB HIGH DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS SHOULD ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE EAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE...AND KEEPS THE AREA DRY. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR MILD DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS TO OCCUR DURING THIS
PERIOD...A BEAUTIFUL STRETCH OF WEATHER FOR LATE SEPTEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

PERIOD OF STRATUS WL AFFECT TAF SITES THIS MRNG...GRADUALLY LIFTING
THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS WL BE POSSIBLE THIS MRNG INTO THE
EARLY AFTN AS WELL. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT SFC WINDS SHOULD RESULT
IN PATCHY MOSTLY LIGHT FOG LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...

TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF APPROACHING CDFNT WL RESULT IN
GUSTY WEST WINDS THIS MRNG. BACKDOOR CDFNT CURRENTLY SOUTH OF KSUE
EXTENDING EAST TO LOW PRESSURE OVER LWR MI WL SWEEP SWD ACROSS
NEARSHORE WATERS THIS MRNG.

MARINERS SHOULD EXPECT ABRUPT WIND SHIFT FROM THE WEST TO THE NNE
BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z THIS MRNG...WITH GUSTY WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
WL CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY INTO TONIGHT.

CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEPTH TO REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA...WITH DELTA-T
AROUND 11C THIS MRNG...SO THREAT FOR WATERSPOUT ACTIVITY ALONG CDFNT
THIS MRNG REMAINS VERY LOW.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM CDT MONDAY
     FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WOOD





000
FXUS63 KMKX 210848 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
348 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.TODAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

SECONDARY PIECE OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY OVER CENTRAL MN WL TRACK
SOUTHEAST...CONTRIBUTING TO FURTHER AMPLIFICATION OF LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH GTLAKES TODAY.

DESPITE STRONGEST FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM OFF TO THE EAST...ENOUGH
MOISTURE IN PLACE AND EXPECTED WEAKER LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW TO
MID LEVEL DEFORMATION SWINGING THROUGH TO GENERATE ISOLD TO SCT -
SHRA THIS MRNG. BEST CHANCE FOR
-SHRA IN THE KFLD/KSBM AREAS...SO BUMPED UP POPS TO LIKELY FOR
SEVERAL HOURS.

DEFORMATION RAPIDLY WEAKENS AND SLIDES SOUTH OF THE AREA BY EARLY
AFTN. SO...BY MID-LATE AFTN...DRY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH
CLEARING. STRATUS ASSOCD WITH DEFORMATION TO CONTINUE SAGGING SOUTH
INTO SRN WI THIS MRNG.

.TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

UPPER LEVEL JET AXIS SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT...ALLOWING
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW TO SETUP OVER WRN GTLAKES. HENCE...QUIET AND DRY
WEATHER RETURNS.

HAVE TO WORRY ABOUT FOG LATER IN THE NIGHT...AS SFC WINDS DECOUPLE
AS HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER...FOG SHOULD REMAIN
MOSTLY LIGHT DUE TO SOME BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AT INVERSION
LEVEL...AND DRIER DEW POINTS SETTLING IN FROM THE NORTH.

OVERNIGHT TEMPS WL FALL INTO THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S...RESULTING IN
A BLEND OF FOG AND DEW. WL HOLD OFF ON ANY FROST MENTION...DUE TO
MILD NEAR SFC TEMPS.

.SHORT TERM...MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING EASTWARD
FROM SOUTHWESTERN IOWA TO THE NORTHEASTERN USA. A RIDGE AT 500 MB
SLOWLY MOVES EAST INTO THE AREA AS WELL. AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS
DURING THIS TIME ARE QUITE DRY ACROSS THE AREA. THESE FEATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING QUIET WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD SLOWLY MODIFY DURING THIS PERIOD...AS STEADY
WARM AIR ADVECTION HELPS BRING MILDER AIR INTO THE AREA. LIGHT
WINDS AND STRONG INVERSION EACH NIGHT SHOULD BRING FOG TO THE
WISCONSIN RIVER VALLEY AND LOW LYING AREAS.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY....FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH.

GFS/ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLOWLY MOVING EAST INTO
THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY BEFORE DISSIPATING. ANY
SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THIS FEATURE SHOULD REMAIN TO THE WEST OF THE
AREA.

OTHERWISE...500 MB HIGH DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS SHOULD ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE EAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE...AND KEEPS THE AREA DRY. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR MILD DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS TO OCCUR DURING THIS
PERIOD...A BEAUTIFUL STRETCH OF WEATHER FOR LATE SEPTEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

PERIOD OF STRATUS WL AFFECT TAF SITES THIS MRNG...GRADUALLY LIFTING
THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS WL BE POSSIBLE THIS MRNG INTO THE
EARLY AFTN AS WELL. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT SFC WINDS SHOULD RESULT
IN PATCHY MOSTLY LIGHT FOG LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...

TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF APPROACHING CDFNT WL RESULT IN
GUSTY WEST WINDS THIS MRNG. BACKDOOR CDFNT CURRENTLY SOUTH OF KSUE
EXTENDING EAST TO LOW PRESSURE OVER LWR MI WL SWEEP SWD ACROSS
NEARSHORE WATERS THIS MRNG.

MARINERS SHOULD EXPECT ABRUPT WIND SHIFT FROM THE WEST TO THE NNE
BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z THIS MRNG...WITH GUSTY WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
WL CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY INTO TONIGHT.

CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEPTH TO REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA...WITH DELTA-T
AROUND 11C THIS MRNG...SO THREAT FOR WATERSPOUT ACTIVITY ALONG CDFNT
THIS MRNG REMAINS VERY LOW.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM CDT MONDAY
     FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WOOD




000
FXUS63 KMKX 210828
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
328 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...COMING SOON...

.SHORT TERM...MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING EASTWARD
FROM SOUTHWESTERN IOWA TO THE NORTHEASTERN USA. A RIDGE AT 500 MB
SLOWLY MOVES EAST INTO THE AREA AS WELL. AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS
DURING THIS TIME ARE QUITE DRY ACROSS THE AREA. THESE FEATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING QUIET WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD SLOWLY MODIFY DURING THIS PERIOD...AS STEADY
WARM AIR ADVECTION HELPS BRING MILDER AIR INTO THE AREA. LIGHT
WINDS AND STRONG INVERSION EACH NIGHT SHOULD BRING FOG TO THE
WISCONSIN RIVER VALLEY AND LOW LYING AREAS.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY....FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH.

GFS/ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLOWLY MOVING EAST INTO
THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY BEFORE DISSIPATING. ANY
SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THIS FEATURE SHOULD REMAIN TO THE WEST OF THE
AREA.

OTHERWISE...500 MB HIGH DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS SHOULD ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE EAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE...AND KEEPS THE AREA DRY. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR MILD DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS TO OCCUR DURING THIS
PERIOD...A BEAUTIFUL STRETCH OF WEATHER FOR LATE SEPTEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...COMING SOON...

&&

.MARINE...COMING SOON...

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM CDT MONDAY
     FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WOOD




000
FXUS63 KMKX 202015
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
315 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - HIGH.

MODELS INCREASE THE UPPER DIVERGENCE THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE DEPARTING PRE-TROUGH AXIS UPPER JET. THEN
MOST MODELS HAVE AN EVENING LULL BEFORE A STRONG MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES LATE THIS EVENING.

THE NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW PARAMETERS SUPPORTING A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE. HOWEVER 850 MB WINDS OF 30 KNOTS ARE
WEAKENING THIS AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE IF ANY CONVERGENCE. THE HIGH
RES ARW MODEL SHOWS MAINLY LIGHTER SHOWERS.  CAPE IS NOT AS STRONG
AS THE NAM SO PREFER THE HIGH-RES ARW`S WEAKER CONVECTION.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES END BY EARLY EVENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST.  FOCUS SHIFTS NORTHWEST WHERE A STRONG
MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN FROM LATE
EVENING THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING.  MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES INCREASE
TO 6-8C/KM WITH THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN 700 MB UPWARD
MOTION.

THEREFORE EXPECT ANOTHER BAND OF SHOWERS TO MOVE THROUGH LATE
EVENING AND EARLY MORNING.

THE SECOND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
LATE MORNING TO JUST AFTER NOON ALONG WITH ANOTHER RATHER STRONG MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE.  BY THIS TIME 850/700 MB COLD AIR ADVECTION IS
OCCURRING...BUT THERE IS SOME WEAK UPWARD MOTION AND NAM HAS AROUND
240 JOULES/KG OF CAPE.  STILL A LOT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND SOME
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE.  STILL ENOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE AROUND 4 THSD
FT FOR STRATOCUMULUS INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE DRYING OCCURS FROM
THE NORTH LATE.

.SHORT TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

DRY FOR THE START OF THE PERIOD AS FORCING IS SOUTH OF CWA WITH
POTENT SHORT WAVE...AND BROAD 1025 MB SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE
REGION. SKIES CLEAR SUFFICIENTLY AND WINDS CALM FOR PATCHY...TO
AREAS OF FOG OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WI...WITH LITTLE TO NO FOG IN THE
EAST WITH WINDS HOLDING UP A BIT HIGHER. LOWS DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S
TO AROUND 40 IN THE EAST AWAY FROM THE LAKE...WITH LOW 40S WEST.

MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

COOLEST HIGHS WILL BE IN THE EAST...IN SPITE OF WESTERLY WINDS...AS
MODELS BRUSH THE FAR EAST WITH THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE 925 MB COLD
POOL MONDAY MORNING...THOUGH THE COOLEST 850 MB TEMPS REMAIN WELL
EAST. 925 MB TEMPS YIELD LOW TO MID 60S EASTERN THIRD...WITH UPPER
60S ELSEWHERE. LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BRING PATCHY FOG
BACK INTO THE PICTURE MONDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

TEMPS BEGIN TO WARM IN DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN THE
EXPANSIVE HIGH TO THE EAST AND A LEE TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS. 925 MB
TEMPS RISE TO AROUND 15C...BRINGING LOW 70 HIGHS...THOUGH ONSHORE
WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON HOLD HIGHS TO THE MID 60S.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE
MEDIUM.

MODELS HAVING TROUBLE RESOLVING EVOLUTION OF WEAKENING PLAINS TROUGH
THAT BRINGS A SMALL CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS TO THE NW CWA AS IT
LIFTS THROUGH MINNESOTA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GFS CONTINUES TO DROP A
COMPACT SHORT WAVE INTO THE REMNANTS OF THE ORIGINAL
TROUGH...CLOSING IT OFF AS IT RETROGRADES BACK TOWARD THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. HOWEVER...THE CANADIAN GEM AND ECMWF ARE NOW SHOWING SOME
SIMILAR VARIATION OF THE SAME THEME. IN SPITE OF THE GEM AND GFS
SPINNING VARIOUS VORTICITY MAXIMA OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY...THEY DEVELOP NO QPF WITH THE DRY SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
AROUND THE HIGH. WILL KEEP REST OF EXTENDED DRY...WITH ABOVE NORMAL
HIGHS...AND AT OR ABOVE NORMAL LOWS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

CUMULUS/STRATOCUMULUS AROUND 35 HUNDRED FEET AHEAD OF A WEAK TROUGH.
SHOWERS AND STILL A CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON. THEN A
LULL EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS LATE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A RATHER STRONG MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT SWEEPS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

MVFR CIGS EXPECTED BEHIND THIS TROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.  THEN YET ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE COULD BRING SOME
SHOWERS THROUGH AROUND NOON.  THE MVFR CIGS WILL GRADUALLY RAISE TO
VFR AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...

GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AS A TROUGH APPROACHES.

GUSTY WEST TO NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE THAT SWEEPS
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES IN THE MORNING.  SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED
&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TONIGHT/SUNDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...REM





000
FXUS63 KMKX 202015
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
315 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - HIGH.

MODELS INCREASE THE UPPER DIVERGENCE THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE DEPARTING PRE-TROUGH AXIS UPPER JET. THEN
MOST MODELS HAVE AN EVENING LULL BEFORE A STRONG MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES LATE THIS EVENING.

THE NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW PARAMETERS SUPPORTING A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE. HOWEVER 850 MB WINDS OF 30 KNOTS ARE
WEAKENING THIS AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE IF ANY CONVERGENCE. THE HIGH
RES ARW MODEL SHOWS MAINLY LIGHTER SHOWERS.  CAPE IS NOT AS STRONG
AS THE NAM SO PREFER THE HIGH-RES ARW`S WEAKER CONVECTION.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES END BY EARLY EVENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST.  FOCUS SHIFTS NORTHWEST WHERE A STRONG
MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN FROM LATE
EVENING THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING.  MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES INCREASE
TO 6-8C/KM WITH THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN 700 MB UPWARD
MOTION.

THEREFORE EXPECT ANOTHER BAND OF SHOWERS TO MOVE THROUGH LATE
EVENING AND EARLY MORNING.

THE SECOND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
LATE MORNING TO JUST AFTER NOON ALONG WITH ANOTHER RATHER STRONG MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE.  BY THIS TIME 850/700 MB COLD AIR ADVECTION IS
OCCURRING...BUT THERE IS SOME WEAK UPWARD MOTION AND NAM HAS AROUND
240 JOULES/KG OF CAPE.  STILL A LOT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND SOME
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE.  STILL ENOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE AROUND 4 THSD
FT FOR STRATOCUMULUS INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE DRYING OCCURS FROM
THE NORTH LATE.

.SHORT TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

DRY FOR THE START OF THE PERIOD AS FORCING IS SOUTH OF CWA WITH
POTENT SHORT WAVE...AND BROAD 1025 MB SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE
REGION. SKIES CLEAR SUFFICIENTLY AND WINDS CALM FOR PATCHY...TO
AREAS OF FOG OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WI...WITH LITTLE TO NO FOG IN THE
EAST WITH WINDS HOLDING UP A BIT HIGHER. LOWS DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S
TO AROUND 40 IN THE EAST AWAY FROM THE LAKE...WITH LOW 40S WEST.

MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

COOLEST HIGHS WILL BE IN THE EAST...IN SPITE OF WESTERLY WINDS...AS
MODELS BRUSH THE FAR EAST WITH THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE 925 MB COLD
POOL MONDAY MORNING...THOUGH THE COOLEST 850 MB TEMPS REMAIN WELL
EAST. 925 MB TEMPS YIELD LOW TO MID 60S EASTERN THIRD...WITH UPPER
60S ELSEWHERE. LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BRING PATCHY FOG
BACK INTO THE PICTURE MONDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

TEMPS BEGIN TO WARM IN DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN THE
EXPANSIVE HIGH TO THE EAST AND A LEE TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS. 925 MB
TEMPS RISE TO AROUND 15C...BRINGING LOW 70 HIGHS...THOUGH ONSHORE
WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON HOLD HIGHS TO THE MID 60S.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE
MEDIUM.

MODELS HAVING TROUBLE RESOLVING EVOLUTION OF WEAKENING PLAINS TROUGH
THAT BRINGS A SMALL CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS TO THE NW CWA AS IT
LIFTS THROUGH MINNESOTA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GFS CONTINUES TO DROP A
COMPACT SHORT WAVE INTO THE REMNANTS OF THE ORIGINAL
TROUGH...CLOSING IT OFF AS IT RETROGRADES BACK TOWARD THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. HOWEVER...THE CANADIAN GEM AND ECMWF ARE NOW SHOWING SOME
SIMILAR VARIATION OF THE SAME THEME. IN SPITE OF THE GEM AND GFS
SPINNING VARIOUS VORTICITY MAXIMA OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY...THEY DEVELOP NO QPF WITH THE DRY SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
AROUND THE HIGH. WILL KEEP REST OF EXTENDED DRY...WITH ABOVE NORMAL
HIGHS...AND AT OR ABOVE NORMAL LOWS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

CUMULUS/STRATOCUMULUS AROUND 35 HUNDRED FEET AHEAD OF A WEAK TROUGH.
SHOWERS AND STILL A CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON. THEN A
LULL EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS LATE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A RATHER STRONG MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT SWEEPS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

MVFR CIGS EXPECTED BEHIND THIS TROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.  THEN YET ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE COULD BRING SOME
SHOWERS THROUGH AROUND NOON.  THE MVFR CIGS WILL GRADUALLY RAISE TO
VFR AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...

GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AS A TROUGH APPROACHES.

GUSTY WEST TO NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE THAT SWEEPS
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES IN THE MORNING.  SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED
&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TONIGHT/SUNDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...REM




000
FXUS63 KMKX 201604
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1104 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.UPDATE...

STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY ON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TODAY. THE
EARLIER LINE OF SHOWERS HAS DIMINISHED...AND THE SECOND AREA IS
APPROACHING. MODELS TEND TO INCREASE THIS AS UPPER DIVERGENCE
INCREASES DUE TO THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE DEPARTING PRE TROUGH
AXIS UPPER JET. THEN MOST MODELS HAVE AN EVENING LULL BEFORE THE
SECOND STRONGER MID LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES LATE THIS EVENING.

THE NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW PARAMETERS SUPPORTING
A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE. HOWEVER 850 MB WINDS OF 30 KNOTS WEAKEN
THIS AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE IF ANY CONVERGENCE. AS A RESULT WILL
CONTINUE A SMALL TO MEDIUM CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH A EARLY EVENING LULL.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

THE FIST LINE OF SHOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED. VFR CONDITIONS WITH
MAINLY HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS LATE THIS MORNING. THEN CUMULUS SHOULD
DEVELOP. STILL A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THEN A
LULL EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS LATE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A RATHER STRONG
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWEEPS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

TODAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

LINE OF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO WEAKEN BUT HAS ADVANCED INTO
NORTHWEST CWA EARLY THIS MRNG. WITH UPPER LEVEL JET WEAKENING AND
SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST...EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE. HOWEVER
CAN NOT RULE OUT MORE SCT CONVECTION SPREADING EWD ACROSS
REMAINDER OF CWA THROUGH MID-MRNG AS POSSIBLE MESOSCALE EDDY/MID
LEVEL WAVE SPREADS EWD ACROSS SRN WI/NRN IL AREA.

ALSO...UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ASSOCD WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
STRENGTHENS OVER SRN WI THIS MRNG. MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH PWAT
VALUES BETWEEN 1 AND 1.5 INCHES. HOWEVER NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
GO WITH HIGHER THAN CHC/SCT POPS AT THIS POINT AFTER 12Z. MOST OF
THE MESOSCALE GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS LINE OF CONVECTION CONTINUING TO
DIMINISH EARLY THIS MRNG WITH LITTLE TO NO ACTIVITY THE REST OF
THE MRNG. ALSO...BETTER LOW LEVEL FORCING REFOCUSES OFF TO THE
EAST.

QUITE A BIT OF CLOUDS THIS MRNG LIMITING INSTABILITY. WILL
CONTINUE CHANCE POPS THIS AFTN WITH LIKELY IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST AS
STRONGER MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE SLIDES ACROSS SRN WI. MODERATE TO
STRONG BULK SHEAR OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS. CLOUDS SHOULD THIN BY THE
EARLY AFTN SO MID 60 DEWPTS MAY RESULT IN MUCAPES EXCEEDING 1500
J/KG THIS AFTN.

TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

CONVECTION THREAT DIMINISHES BY EARLY EVENING AS UPPER LEVEL WAVE
AND WEAK SFC FRONT SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST. FOCUS SHIFTS NORTHWEST
WHERE A VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE WITH STRONG MID-LEVEL
POTENTIAL VORTICITY SLIDES ACROSS SRN WI FROM LATE EVENING THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES INCREASE TO 6-7C OVER
NRN CWA WITH THIS FEATURE.

IN ADDITION...A MODERATE LOW TO MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS BAND OF
ENHANCED FORCING WL SWEEP ACROSS SRN WI. HENCE WL BUMP UP POPS TO
LIKELY IN THE FAR NORTH TRAILING OFF TO SCHC IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST.

SHORT TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW POTENT 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM SLIDING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING...THEN EXITS TO THE
SOUTH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE GFS WAS A BIT SLOWER THAN THE
NAM/ECMWF/CANADIAN MODELS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS FEATURE.

AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM NAM/GFS NOT SHOWING A LOT OF
MOISTURE SUNDAY MORNING...BUT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS. DESPITE SOME UNCERTAINTY HERE WITH AREAL COVERAGE OF THE
SHOWERS...RAISED POPS A BIT SUNDAY MORNING.

HELD ONTO LOW POPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AS DAYTIME HEATING ALLOWS
FOR WEAK INSTABILITY DESPITE EXITING 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM.
HIGHS SUNDAY LOOK TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

A DRY PERIOD THEN IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS ARE SHOWING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING
EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
COOL TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA AS WELL...AS 925 MB TEMPERATURES ARE
SLOW TO WARM DURING THIS TIME.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

GFS/ECMWF ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE HIGH SLOWLY MOVING OFF
TO THE EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE INFLUENCE OF
THE HIGH SHOULD KEEP THE AREA DRY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM TO
NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

GFS/ECMWF THEN HAVE 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH STALLING AND
DISSIPATING OVER MINNESOTA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...AS
DOWNSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION LINGERS.

KEPT POPS GOING FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THOUGH LATEST MODELS KEEP
THE AREA DRY. LATER FORECASTS MAY CONSIDER REMOVING POPS FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IF LATER RUNS SHOW 500 MB SHORTWAVE NOT REACHING
THE AREA.

THE HIGH WELL EAST OF THE REGION MAY CONTINUE THE QUIET WEATHER
CONDITIONS INTO THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN
NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

MAY BE SOME MVFR CIGS ASSOCD WITH ANY MRNG CONVECTION THAT
SPREADS IN FROM THE WEST. OTRW VFR CONDITIONS WL RETURN LATER
TODAY WITH A CHANCE FOR AFTN CONVECTION DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO
EAST AS MAIN FORCING SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST. SCT -SHRA AND
POSSIBLE T RETURNS THIS EVENING AHEAD OF VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE
SWEEPING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

MARINE...

GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH POTENTIAL
GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS. HENCE WL CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT ADVY AND EXTEND
TO 00Z. GUSTY WEST TO NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE
THAT SWEEPS ACROSS THE WESTERN GTLAKES IN THE MRNG.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HENTZ
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WOOD




000
FXUS63 KMKX 201604
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1104 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.UPDATE...

STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY ON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TODAY. THE
EARLIER LINE OF SHOWERS HAS DIMINISHED...AND THE SECOND AREA IS
APPROACHING. MODELS TEND TO INCREASE THIS AS UPPER DIVERGENCE
INCREASES DUE TO THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE DEPARTING PRE TROUGH
AXIS UPPER JET. THEN MOST MODELS HAVE AN EVENING LULL BEFORE THE
SECOND STRONGER MID LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES LATE THIS EVENING.

THE NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW PARAMETERS SUPPORTING
A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE. HOWEVER 850 MB WINDS OF 30 KNOTS WEAKEN
THIS AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE IF ANY CONVERGENCE. AS A RESULT WILL
CONTINUE A SMALL TO MEDIUM CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH A EARLY EVENING LULL.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

THE FIST LINE OF SHOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED. VFR CONDITIONS WITH
MAINLY HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS LATE THIS MORNING. THEN CUMULUS SHOULD
DEVELOP. STILL A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THEN A
LULL EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS LATE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A RATHER STRONG
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWEEPS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

TODAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

LINE OF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO WEAKEN BUT HAS ADVANCED INTO
NORTHWEST CWA EARLY THIS MRNG. WITH UPPER LEVEL JET WEAKENING AND
SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST...EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE. HOWEVER
CAN NOT RULE OUT MORE SCT CONVECTION SPREADING EWD ACROSS
REMAINDER OF CWA THROUGH MID-MRNG AS POSSIBLE MESOSCALE EDDY/MID
LEVEL WAVE SPREADS EWD ACROSS SRN WI/NRN IL AREA.

ALSO...UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ASSOCD WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
STRENGTHENS OVER SRN WI THIS MRNG. MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH PWAT
VALUES BETWEEN 1 AND 1.5 INCHES. HOWEVER NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
GO WITH HIGHER THAN CHC/SCT POPS AT THIS POINT AFTER 12Z. MOST OF
THE MESOSCALE GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS LINE OF CONVECTION CONTINUING TO
DIMINISH EARLY THIS MRNG WITH LITTLE TO NO ACTIVITY THE REST OF
THE MRNG. ALSO...BETTER LOW LEVEL FORCING REFOCUSES OFF TO THE
EAST.

QUITE A BIT OF CLOUDS THIS MRNG LIMITING INSTABILITY. WILL
CONTINUE CHANCE POPS THIS AFTN WITH LIKELY IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST AS
STRONGER MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE SLIDES ACROSS SRN WI. MODERATE TO
STRONG BULK SHEAR OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS. CLOUDS SHOULD THIN BY THE
EARLY AFTN SO MID 60 DEWPTS MAY RESULT IN MUCAPES EXCEEDING 1500
J/KG THIS AFTN.

TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

CONVECTION THREAT DIMINISHES BY EARLY EVENING AS UPPER LEVEL WAVE
AND WEAK SFC FRONT SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST. FOCUS SHIFTS NORTHWEST
WHERE A VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE WITH STRONG MID-LEVEL
POTENTIAL VORTICITY SLIDES ACROSS SRN WI FROM LATE EVENING THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES INCREASE TO 6-7C OVER
NRN CWA WITH THIS FEATURE.

IN ADDITION...A MODERATE LOW TO MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS BAND OF
ENHANCED FORCING WL SWEEP ACROSS SRN WI. HENCE WL BUMP UP POPS TO
LIKELY IN THE FAR NORTH TRAILING OFF TO SCHC IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST.

SHORT TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW POTENT 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM SLIDING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING...THEN EXITS TO THE
SOUTH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE GFS WAS A BIT SLOWER THAN THE
NAM/ECMWF/CANADIAN MODELS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS FEATURE.

AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM NAM/GFS NOT SHOWING A LOT OF
MOISTURE SUNDAY MORNING...BUT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS. DESPITE SOME UNCERTAINTY HERE WITH AREAL COVERAGE OF THE
SHOWERS...RAISED POPS A BIT SUNDAY MORNING.

HELD ONTO LOW POPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AS DAYTIME HEATING ALLOWS
FOR WEAK INSTABILITY DESPITE EXITING 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM.
HIGHS SUNDAY LOOK TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

A DRY PERIOD THEN IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS ARE SHOWING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING
EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
COOL TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA AS WELL...AS 925 MB TEMPERATURES ARE
SLOW TO WARM DURING THIS TIME.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

GFS/ECMWF ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE HIGH SLOWLY MOVING OFF
TO THE EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE INFLUENCE OF
THE HIGH SHOULD KEEP THE AREA DRY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM TO
NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

GFS/ECMWF THEN HAVE 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH STALLING AND
DISSIPATING OVER MINNESOTA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...AS
DOWNSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION LINGERS.

KEPT POPS GOING FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THOUGH LATEST MODELS KEEP
THE AREA DRY. LATER FORECASTS MAY CONSIDER REMOVING POPS FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IF LATER RUNS SHOW 500 MB SHORTWAVE NOT REACHING
THE AREA.

THE HIGH WELL EAST OF THE REGION MAY CONTINUE THE QUIET WEATHER
CONDITIONS INTO THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN
NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

MAY BE SOME MVFR CIGS ASSOCD WITH ANY MRNG CONVECTION THAT
SPREADS IN FROM THE WEST. OTRW VFR CONDITIONS WL RETURN LATER
TODAY WITH A CHANCE FOR AFTN CONVECTION DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO
EAST AS MAIN FORCING SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST. SCT -SHRA AND
POSSIBLE T RETURNS THIS EVENING AHEAD OF VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE
SWEEPING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

MARINE...

GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH POTENTIAL
GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS. HENCE WL CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT ADVY AND EXTEND
TO 00Z. GUSTY WEST TO NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE
THAT SWEEPS ACROSS THE WESTERN GTLAKES IN THE MRNG.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HENTZ
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WOOD





000
FXUS63 KMKX 200829
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
329 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.TODAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

LINE OF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO WEAKEN BUT HAS ADVANCED INTO
NORTHWEST CWA EARLY THIS MRNG. WITH UPPER LEVEL JET WEAKENING AND
SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST...EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE. HOWEVER
CAN NOT RULE OUT MORE SCT CONVECTION SPREADING EWD ACROSS
REMAINDER OF CWA THROUGH MID-MRNG AS POSSIBLE MESOSCALE EDDY/MID
LEVEL WAVE SPREADS EWD ACROSS SRN WI/NRN IL AREA.

ALSO...UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ASSOCD WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
STRENGTHENS OVER SRN WI THIS MRNG. MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH PWAT
VALUES BETWEEN 1 AND 1.5 INCHES. HOWEVER NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
GO WITH HIGHER THAN CHC/SCT POPS AT THIS POINT AFTER 12Z. MOST OF
THE MESOSCALE GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS LINE OF CONVECTION CONTINUING TO
DIMINISH EARLY THIS MRNG WITH LITTLE TO NO ACTIVITY THE REST OF
THE MRNG. ALSO...BETTER LOW LEVEL FORCING REFOCUSES OFF TO THE
EAST.

QUITE A BIT OF CLOUDS THIS MRNG LIMITING INSTABILITY. WILL
CONTINUE CHANCE POPS THIS AFTN WITH LIKELY IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST AS
STRONGER MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE SLIDES ACROSS SRN WI. MODERATE TO
STRONG BULK SHEAR OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS. CLOUDS SHOULD THIN BY THE
EARLY AFTN SO MID 60 DEWPTS MAY RESULT IN MUCAPES EXCEEDING 1500
J/KG THIS AFTN.

.TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

CONVECTION THREAT DIMINISHES BY EARLY EVENING AS UPPER LEVEL WAVE
AND WEAK SFC FRONT SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST. FOCUS SHIFTS NORTHWEST
WHERE A VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE WITH STRONG MID-LEVEL
POTENTIAL VORTICITY SLIDES ACROSS SRN WI FROM LATE EVENING THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES INCREASE TO 6-7C OVER
NRN CWA WITH THIS FEATURE.

IN ADDITION...A MODERATE LOW TO MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS BAND OF
ENHANCED FORCING WL SWEEP ACROSS SRN WI. HENCE WL BUMP UP POPS TO
LIKELY IN THE FAR NORTH TRAILING OFF TO SCHC IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST.

.SHORT TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW POTENT 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM SLIDING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING...THEN EXITS TO THE
SOUTH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE GFS WAS A BIT SLOWER THAN THE
NAM/ECMWF/CANADIAN MODELS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS FEATURE.

AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM NAM/GFS NOT SHOWING A LOT OF
MOISTURE SUNDAY MORNING...BUT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS. DESPITE SOME UNCERTAINTY HERE WITH AREAL COVERAGE OF THE
SHOWERS...RAISED POPS A BIT SUNDAY MORNING.

HELD ONTO LOW POPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AS DAYTIME HEATING ALLOWS
FOR WEAK INSTABILITY DESPITE EXITING 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM.
HIGHS SUNDAY LOOK TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

A DRY PERIOD THEN IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS ARE SHOWING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING
EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
COOL TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA AS WELL...AS 925 MB TEMPERATURES ARE
SLOW TO WARM DURING THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

GFS/ECMWF ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE HIGH SLOWLY MOVING OFF
TO THE EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE INFLUENCE OF
THE HIGH SHOULD KEEP THE AREA DRY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM TO
NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

GFS/ECMWF THEN HAVE 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH STALLING AND
DISSIPATING OVER MINNESOTA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...AS
DOWNSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION LINGERS.

KEPT POPS GOING FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THOUGH LATEST MODELS KEEP
THE AREA DRY. LATER FORECASTS MAY CONSIDER REMOVING POPS FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IF LATER RUNS SHOW 500 MB SHORTWAVE NOT REACHING
THE AREA.

THE HIGH WELL EAST OF THE REGION MAY CONTINUE THE QUIET WEATHER
CONDITIONS INTO THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN
NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

MAY BE SOME MVFR CIGS ASSOCD WITH ANY MRNG CONVECTION THAT
SPREADS IN FROM THE WEST. OTRW VFR CONDITIONS WL RETURN LATER
TODAY WITH A CHANCE FOR AFTN CONVECTION DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO
EAST AS MAIN FORCING SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST. SCT -SHRA AND
POSSIBLE T RETURNS THIS EVENING AHEAD OF VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE
SWEEPING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.MARINE...

GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH POTENTIAL
GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS. HENCE WL CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT ADVY AND EXTEND
TO 00Z. GUSTY WEST TO NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE
THAT SWEEPS ACROSS THE WESTERN GTLAKES IN THE MRNG.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WOOD




000
FXUS63 KMKX 200829
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
329 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.TODAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

LINE OF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO WEAKEN BUT HAS ADVANCED INTO
NORTHWEST CWA EARLY THIS MRNG. WITH UPPER LEVEL JET WEAKENING AND
SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST...EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE. HOWEVER
CAN NOT RULE OUT MORE SCT CONVECTION SPREADING EWD ACROSS
REMAINDER OF CWA THROUGH MID-MRNG AS POSSIBLE MESOSCALE EDDY/MID
LEVEL WAVE SPREADS EWD ACROSS SRN WI/NRN IL AREA.

ALSO...UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ASSOCD WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
STRENGTHENS OVER SRN WI THIS MRNG. MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH PWAT
VALUES BETWEEN 1 AND 1.5 INCHES. HOWEVER NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
GO WITH HIGHER THAN CHC/SCT POPS AT THIS POINT AFTER 12Z. MOST OF
THE MESOSCALE GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS LINE OF CONVECTION CONTINUING TO
DIMINISH EARLY THIS MRNG WITH LITTLE TO NO ACTIVITY THE REST OF
THE MRNG. ALSO...BETTER LOW LEVEL FORCING REFOCUSES OFF TO THE
EAST.

QUITE A BIT OF CLOUDS THIS MRNG LIMITING INSTABILITY. WILL
CONTINUE CHANCE POPS THIS AFTN WITH LIKELY IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST AS
STRONGER MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE SLIDES ACROSS SRN WI. MODERATE TO
STRONG BULK SHEAR OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS. CLOUDS SHOULD THIN BY THE
EARLY AFTN SO MID 60 DEWPTS MAY RESULT IN MUCAPES EXCEEDING 1500
J/KG THIS AFTN.

.TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

CONVECTION THREAT DIMINISHES BY EARLY EVENING AS UPPER LEVEL WAVE
AND WEAK SFC FRONT SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST. FOCUS SHIFTS NORTHWEST
WHERE A VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE WITH STRONG MID-LEVEL
POTENTIAL VORTICITY SLIDES ACROSS SRN WI FROM LATE EVENING THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES INCREASE TO 6-7C OVER
NRN CWA WITH THIS FEATURE.

IN ADDITION...A MODERATE LOW TO MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS BAND OF
ENHANCED FORCING WL SWEEP ACROSS SRN WI. HENCE WL BUMP UP POPS TO
LIKELY IN THE FAR NORTH TRAILING OFF TO SCHC IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST.

.SHORT TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW POTENT 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM SLIDING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING...THEN EXITS TO THE
SOUTH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE GFS WAS A BIT SLOWER THAN THE
NAM/ECMWF/CANADIAN MODELS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS FEATURE.

AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM NAM/GFS NOT SHOWING A LOT OF
MOISTURE SUNDAY MORNING...BUT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS. DESPITE SOME UNCERTAINTY HERE WITH AREAL COVERAGE OF THE
SHOWERS...RAISED POPS A BIT SUNDAY MORNING.

HELD ONTO LOW POPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AS DAYTIME HEATING ALLOWS
FOR WEAK INSTABILITY DESPITE EXITING 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM.
HIGHS SUNDAY LOOK TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

A DRY PERIOD THEN IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS ARE SHOWING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING
EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
COOL TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA AS WELL...AS 925 MB TEMPERATURES ARE
SLOW TO WARM DURING THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

GFS/ECMWF ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE HIGH SLOWLY MOVING OFF
TO THE EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE INFLUENCE OF
THE HIGH SHOULD KEEP THE AREA DRY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM TO
NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

GFS/ECMWF THEN HAVE 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH STALLING AND
DISSIPATING OVER MINNESOTA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...AS
DOWNSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION LINGERS.

KEPT POPS GOING FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THOUGH LATEST MODELS KEEP
THE AREA DRY. LATER FORECASTS MAY CONSIDER REMOVING POPS FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IF LATER RUNS SHOW 500 MB SHORTWAVE NOT REACHING
THE AREA.

THE HIGH WELL EAST OF THE REGION MAY CONTINUE THE QUIET WEATHER
CONDITIONS INTO THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN
NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

MAY BE SOME MVFR CIGS ASSOCD WITH ANY MRNG CONVECTION THAT
SPREADS IN FROM THE WEST. OTRW VFR CONDITIONS WL RETURN LATER
TODAY WITH A CHANCE FOR AFTN CONVECTION DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO
EAST AS MAIN FORCING SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST. SCT -SHRA AND
POSSIBLE T RETURNS THIS EVENING AHEAD OF VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE
SWEEPING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.MARINE...

GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH POTENTIAL
GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS. HENCE WL CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT ADVY AND EXTEND
TO 00Z. GUSTY WEST TO NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE
THAT SWEEPS ACROSS THE WESTERN GTLAKES IN THE MRNG.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WOOD





000
FXUS63 KMKX 200505
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1205 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.UPDATE...STILL EXPECTING SCT TSTORMS DURING THE OVERNIGHT INTO
SAT AS THE 700 MB THERMAL RIDGE SHIFTS EWD IN RESPONSE TO THE
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. A LINE OF CONVECTION HAS ALREADY FORMED
OVER NRN IA AND SE MN...ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON HOW
WIDESPREAD THE TSTORMS WILL BE. A CONSENSUS OF MODELS STILL
SUGGESTS SCT COVERAGE. THE MODELS ARE ALSO CONTINUING TO SHOW
REDEVELOPMENT SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER FAR SE WI AND NRN IL
AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. THUS LIKELY POPS IN
FAR SE WI LOOKS GOOD.


&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...SCT TSTORMS WILL DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF SAT. THEY WILL CONTINUE OVER SE
WI DURING THE DAY. THE SURGE OF HUMID AIR WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
CIGS OF 1-3 KFT SAT AM LINGERING INTO THE AFTERNOON. VFR
CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS MINNESOTA TONIGHT AND INTO
WISCONSIN SATURDAY MORNING...BEFORE REACHING LAKE MICHIGAN EARLY
SATURDAY EVENING. A 70 KNOT 250 MB JET EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL WISCONSIN...WITH AN INCREASING SPEED MAX BEHIND THE TROUGH.
THE UPPER DIVERGENCE IS MAINLY WEAK...BUT DOES INCREASE SOME TOWARDS
MIDNIGHT...AND AGAIN IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST LATE SATURDAY EVENING. THE
850/700 MB WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES TONIGHT WITH THE THERMAL
RIDGE PUSHING SOUTH AND EAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE 700 MB UPWARD
MOTION IS ON THE WEAK SIDE.

700 MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY SATURATES BY NOON SATURDAY...MAINLY OVER
THE SOUTHEAST. THE 850 MB WINDS INCREASE THIS EVENING...BUT BY
MIDNIGHT THE JET MAX IS OVER EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST.  THEREFORE THERE IS LITTLE CONVERGENCE FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT.  700 MB WINDS ARE SIMILAR...EXCEPT THEY REMAIN STRONG
ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH ONLY WEAK CONVERGENCE.

THE HIRES ARW AND NMN BRINGS SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA LATE TONIGHT AND IS MAINLY DRY DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.  THE
NAM BRINGS MOST PRECIPITATION IN SATURDAY MORNING THEN SOUTHEAST
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  AS A RESULT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH WITH
PRECIPITATION TIMING AND EXTENT.  GIVEN LACK OF A STRONG LIFTING
MECHANISM...WITH HAVE MAINLY LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES.  THE LOW LEVEL
CAP REMAINS AND WOULD LIMIT THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. SHEAR IS
STRONG...BUT UNCERTAINTY OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT REMAINS.

SHORT TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

SATURDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

FIRST SHORT WAVE EXITING TO THE EAST BY 00Z SATURDAY...WITH
SECOND...STRONGER WAVE DROPPING INTO NW WISCONSIN IN LEFT EXIT
REGION OF A 125 KT JET MAX THAT SAGS TO NEAR THE WI/IL BORDER BY
12Z SUNDAY THAT DEEPENS THE 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES.

SURFACE TROUGH TRAILING FROM LOW IN SW QUEBEC DOES NOT PUSH SE OF
REGION UNTIL 06Z...WITH LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS STRENGTHENING AS IT
MOVES ACROSS SRN WI.

WHILE MODELS FOCUS AXIS OF HIGHEST ML CAPE ACROSS IL/SRN LK MI INTO
LOWER MI...THE NAM IS SHOWING A ML CAPE GRADIENT OF 1000-1500 J/KG
ACROSS FAR SRN WI...ALONG AND SE OF A PORT WASHINGTON TO DUBUQUE
IOWA LINE...THAT SAGS TO THE SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z EXITING
THE FAR SE BY 06Z. HOWEVER THE SURFACE DEW POINTS USED ON THE NAM
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE HIGHER THAN THE 2M DEW POINTS OR THOSE IN THE
MET GUIDANCE...SO HIGHER CAPE VALUES ARE SUSPECT. BOTH NAM AND GFS
HAVE 40KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR DURING THIS TIME OVER SRN WI THAT
SHIFTS SE.

WILL KEEPING WITH A FASTER FRONTAL PASSAGE THAT MATCHES POP TREND
FROM THE SATURDAY DAY PERIOD...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES IN THE SE
AND EAST BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z WITH DEPARTING FRONT AND INCREASING
CHANCE POPS FROM WEST TO EAST WITH SECOND STRONG WAVE. MODERATE MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND CAPPING AROUND 15K FT WILL LIMIT
INSTABILITY... SO WILL GO WITH CHANCE SHOWERS/SLIGHT CHANCE
THUNDERSTORMS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

MODELS DIFFER WITH DEGREE OF SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT ALONG SURFACE
TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH DEPARTING SHORT WAVE. THIS AFFECTS QPF AMOUNTS
AND COVERAGE FOR SUNDAY. WILL USE A BLENDED SOLUTION THAT KEEPS A
SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE NORTHEAST CWA SUNDAY MORNING...WITH THE
ENTIRE CWA DRY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE...QUIET WEATHER FOR THE REST OF SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AND A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
ACROSS REGION. CORE OF 850 MB AND 925 MB COLD POOLS PASS WELL NORTH
AND EAST OF STATE...SO NOT A HUGE COOL DOWN WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-
UPPER 60S SUNDAY AND THE BEGINNING OF WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION
BRINGING HIGHS UP A FEW DEGREES FOR MONDAY. PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES ALLOWING RADIATIONAL
COOLING DOWN TO NEAR DEW POINTS.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

THE STRENGTHENING HIGH WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER FOR MOST OF NEXT
WEEK AS IT SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST. SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGS NEAR NORMAL TO
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS TO THE FORECAST AREA...WITH COOLER READINGS IN
THE EAST DUE TO MORE OF A SOUTHEAST FLOW THERE...BUT STILL NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS. GFS AND ECMWF BRUSH NORTHWEST CWA WITH PCPN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A CENTRAL PLAINS TROUGH SHEARS OUT
AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE BROAD RIDGE COVERING MOST OF THE
EASTER U.S. WILL GO WITH THE BLENDED LOW CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
FOR WED NIGHT AND KEEP THURSDAY DRY. DRY TREND CONTINUES THROUGH
FRIDAY...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS IN PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW ON
WESTERN FLANK OF EASTERN HIGH.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT WITH A SLOW INCREASE IN
MID/HIGH CLOUDS.  A STRONG LOW LEVEL CAP HAS KEPT WIND GUSTS DOWN.
HOWEVER THIS WILL ALSO BRING SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR POTENTIAL AS
SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE AT 2 THSD FT.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES. EXPECT SOME MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS AROUND OR AFTER SUNRISE DUE TO THE INCREASING MOISTURE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THERE COULD ALSO BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CIGS
MAINLY WEST OF MADISON.  THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE WEAK FRONT MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.

MARINE...

SOUTH WINDS WILL REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY...BUT A LOW LEVEL INVERSION IS REDUCING THE
STRONG WIND POTENTIAL. WAVES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE INTO TONIGHT.

WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK PASSING COLD
FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THUS WIND/WAVE CONDITIONS WILL BE
IMPROVING BY THEN.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GEHRING
TONIGHT/SATURDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...REM





000
FXUS63 KMKX 200505
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1205 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.UPDATE...STILL EXPECTING SCT TSTORMS DURING THE OVERNIGHT INTO
SAT AS THE 700 MB THERMAL RIDGE SHIFTS EWD IN RESPONSE TO THE
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. A LINE OF CONVECTION HAS ALREADY FORMED
OVER NRN IA AND SE MN...ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON HOW
WIDESPREAD THE TSTORMS WILL BE. A CONSENSUS OF MODELS STILL
SUGGESTS SCT COVERAGE. THE MODELS ARE ALSO CONTINUING TO SHOW
REDEVELOPMENT SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER FAR SE WI AND NRN IL
AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. THUS LIKELY POPS IN
FAR SE WI LOOKS GOOD.


&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...SCT TSTORMS WILL DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF SAT. THEY WILL CONTINUE OVER SE
WI DURING THE DAY. THE SURGE OF HUMID AIR WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
CIGS OF 1-3 KFT SAT AM LINGERING INTO THE AFTERNOON. VFR
CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS MINNESOTA TONIGHT AND INTO
WISCONSIN SATURDAY MORNING...BEFORE REACHING LAKE MICHIGAN EARLY
SATURDAY EVENING. A 70 KNOT 250 MB JET EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL WISCONSIN...WITH AN INCREASING SPEED MAX BEHIND THE TROUGH.
THE UPPER DIVERGENCE IS MAINLY WEAK...BUT DOES INCREASE SOME TOWARDS
MIDNIGHT...AND AGAIN IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST LATE SATURDAY EVENING. THE
850/700 MB WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES TONIGHT WITH THE THERMAL
RIDGE PUSHING SOUTH AND EAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE 700 MB UPWARD
MOTION IS ON THE WEAK SIDE.

700 MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY SATURATES BY NOON SATURDAY...MAINLY OVER
THE SOUTHEAST. THE 850 MB WINDS INCREASE THIS EVENING...BUT BY
MIDNIGHT THE JET MAX IS OVER EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST.  THEREFORE THERE IS LITTLE CONVERGENCE FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT.  700 MB WINDS ARE SIMILAR...EXCEPT THEY REMAIN STRONG
ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH ONLY WEAK CONVERGENCE.

THE HIRES ARW AND NMN BRINGS SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA LATE TONIGHT AND IS MAINLY DRY DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.  THE
NAM BRINGS MOST PRECIPITATION IN SATURDAY MORNING THEN SOUTHEAST
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  AS A RESULT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH WITH
PRECIPITATION TIMING AND EXTENT.  GIVEN LACK OF A STRONG LIFTING
MECHANISM...WITH HAVE MAINLY LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES.  THE LOW LEVEL
CAP REMAINS AND WOULD LIMIT THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. SHEAR IS
STRONG...BUT UNCERTAINTY OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT REMAINS.

SHORT TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

SATURDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

FIRST SHORT WAVE EXITING TO THE EAST BY 00Z SATURDAY...WITH
SECOND...STRONGER WAVE DROPPING INTO NW WISCONSIN IN LEFT EXIT
REGION OF A 125 KT JET MAX THAT SAGS TO NEAR THE WI/IL BORDER BY
12Z SUNDAY THAT DEEPENS THE 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES.

SURFACE TROUGH TRAILING FROM LOW IN SW QUEBEC DOES NOT PUSH SE OF
REGION UNTIL 06Z...WITH LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS STRENGTHENING AS IT
MOVES ACROSS SRN WI.

WHILE MODELS FOCUS AXIS OF HIGHEST ML CAPE ACROSS IL/SRN LK MI INTO
LOWER MI...THE NAM IS SHOWING A ML CAPE GRADIENT OF 1000-1500 J/KG
ACROSS FAR SRN WI...ALONG AND SE OF A PORT WASHINGTON TO DUBUQUE
IOWA LINE...THAT SAGS TO THE SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z EXITING
THE FAR SE BY 06Z. HOWEVER THE SURFACE DEW POINTS USED ON THE NAM
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE HIGHER THAN THE 2M DEW POINTS OR THOSE IN THE
MET GUIDANCE...SO HIGHER CAPE VALUES ARE SUSPECT. BOTH NAM AND GFS
HAVE 40KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR DURING THIS TIME OVER SRN WI THAT
SHIFTS SE.

WILL KEEPING WITH A FASTER FRONTAL PASSAGE THAT MATCHES POP TREND
FROM THE SATURDAY DAY PERIOD...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES IN THE SE
AND EAST BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z WITH DEPARTING FRONT AND INCREASING
CHANCE POPS FROM WEST TO EAST WITH SECOND STRONG WAVE. MODERATE MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND CAPPING AROUND 15K FT WILL LIMIT
INSTABILITY... SO WILL GO WITH CHANCE SHOWERS/SLIGHT CHANCE
THUNDERSTORMS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

MODELS DIFFER WITH DEGREE OF SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT ALONG SURFACE
TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH DEPARTING SHORT WAVE. THIS AFFECTS QPF AMOUNTS
AND COVERAGE FOR SUNDAY. WILL USE A BLENDED SOLUTION THAT KEEPS A
SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE NORTHEAST CWA SUNDAY MORNING...WITH THE
ENTIRE CWA DRY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE...QUIET WEATHER FOR THE REST OF SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AND A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
ACROSS REGION. CORE OF 850 MB AND 925 MB COLD POOLS PASS WELL NORTH
AND EAST OF STATE...SO NOT A HUGE COOL DOWN WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-
UPPER 60S SUNDAY AND THE BEGINNING OF WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION
BRINGING HIGHS UP A FEW DEGREES FOR MONDAY. PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES ALLOWING RADIATIONAL
COOLING DOWN TO NEAR DEW POINTS.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

THE STRENGTHENING HIGH WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER FOR MOST OF NEXT
WEEK AS IT SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST. SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGS NEAR NORMAL TO
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS TO THE FORECAST AREA...WITH COOLER READINGS IN
THE EAST DUE TO MORE OF A SOUTHEAST FLOW THERE...BUT STILL NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS. GFS AND ECMWF BRUSH NORTHWEST CWA WITH PCPN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A CENTRAL PLAINS TROUGH SHEARS OUT
AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE BROAD RIDGE COVERING MOST OF THE
EASTER U.S. WILL GO WITH THE BLENDED LOW CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
FOR WED NIGHT AND KEEP THURSDAY DRY. DRY TREND CONTINUES THROUGH
FRIDAY...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS IN PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW ON
WESTERN FLANK OF EASTERN HIGH.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT WITH A SLOW INCREASE IN
MID/HIGH CLOUDS.  A STRONG LOW LEVEL CAP HAS KEPT WIND GUSTS DOWN.
HOWEVER THIS WILL ALSO BRING SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR POTENTIAL AS
SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE AT 2 THSD FT.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES. EXPECT SOME MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS AROUND OR AFTER SUNRISE DUE TO THE INCREASING MOISTURE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THERE COULD ALSO BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CIGS
MAINLY WEST OF MADISON.  THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE WEAK FRONT MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.

MARINE...

SOUTH WINDS WILL REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY...BUT A LOW LEVEL INVERSION IS REDUCING THE
STRONG WIND POTENTIAL. WAVES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE INTO TONIGHT.

WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK PASSING COLD
FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THUS WIND/WAVE CONDITIONS WILL BE
IMPROVING BY THEN.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GEHRING
TONIGHT/SATURDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...REM




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