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000
FXUS63 KMKX 310217
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
917 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE OVER CENTRAL WI AIDED BY WEAK
CONVERGENCE IN VICINITY OF SFC CDFNT RESULTING IN PERSISTENT ISOLD
-SHRA NEAR KPDC/KOVS. THESE -SHRA MOVING TO THE EAST AND WL AFFECT
PORTIONS OF IOWA/SAUK COUNTIES TOWARDS 03Z. IR IMAGERY SHOWING
COOLING CLOUD TOPS AND WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY SO POSSIBLE THESE
-SHRA WL HANG ON AND AFFECT KMSN AREA AROUND 05Z OR SO.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP TOWARD AND AFTER
MIDNIGHT BUT MAY BE TEMPERED BY POSSIBLE STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AS
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWS DOWN OVER SRN WI LATER TONIGHT. IN
ADDITION...SFC OBS SHOW QUITE A BIT OF STRATUS UPSTREAM OVER
CENTRAL WI BEHIND APPROACHING CDFNT WHICH WL LIKELY AFFECT NRN CWA
FOR A TIME. HENCE NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD
DENSE FOG LATE TNGT BUT MOST FAVORED AREA WOULD BE IN THE SOUTH. IF
STRATUS WERE TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT...WL LIKELY LINGER INTO SUN
MRNG OVER EASTERN AREAS AROUND AND NORTH OF WEAK FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG APPROACHING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY TRIGGER AREAS OF IFR STRATUS LATER TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...HIGHER STRATUS/MID CLOUDS IN THE WAKE OF CDFNT
ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION MAY AFFECT TAF SITES
OVERNIGHT AS WELL. BEFORE STRATUS DEVELOPS...WL LIKELY BE AREAS OF
FOG WHICH COULD BECOME DENSE FOR A TIME...ESPECIALLY AT KENW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

SHORT TERM...

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS INTO SRN WI FROM DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE TO
OUR NORTHEAST. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE HAS BEEN MAXIMIZED VCNTY THIS
BOUNDARY WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS. ONE SHORTWAVE/SPEED MAX LIFTING
NORTHEAST WITH ANOTHER VORT WRAPPING EAST FROM ERN MN/WRN WI. WILL
LINGER THESE SHRA INTO THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE INFLUENCE OF SECOND
VORT AND LOSS OF HEATING PUT AN END TO THE PRECIP. THEN FOCUS SHIFTS
TO CLEARING TREND AND FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT LATER ON. DEW POINTS
REMAIN UP AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS INCREASED DUE TO THE NUMEROUS
SHRA. SO WITH A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING ACROSS EXPECTING
SOME FOG AND STRATUS TO TAKE SHAPE. THIS PLAYED OUT ON LLVL RH
PROGS AND MOS GUID. SOME GOOD CONSENSUS WITH THE LATTER...SO NOT
MUCH CHANGE TO GOING WX GRIDS IN THIS REGARD.

SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
WEAK SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST. SOUTHERLY FLOW STARTS TO DEVELOP.
ANY INFLUENCE OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE PLAINS WILL REMAIN
TO OUR WEST. BY DAYS END 925 TEMPS MODIFY TO 21-24C. SO WARMER TEMPS
WITH SOME 80S RETURNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CWA.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH

A RATHER STRONG SHORTWAVE EXITS THE PLAINS AND MOVES INTO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE LEAD SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS
WISCONSIN MONDAY WITH THE BEST DYNAMICS JUST TO THE NORTH AS A
110 KNOT JET MAX MOVES TO THE NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH A
SECOND SPEED MAX PUSHING ACROSS WISCONSIN. STRONG UPPER
DIVERGENCE MAINLY NEAR AND JUST TO THE WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER LATE SUNDAY NIGHT WEAKENS SOMEWHAT AND LIFTS NORTHEAST
ACROSS WISCONSIN MONDAY. THE STRONGEST UPWARD MOTION PUSHES INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY SUNRISE AND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
MONDAY MORNING. THE 850/700 MB THERMAL RIDGE MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. A 50 KNOT 850/700
MB  SPEED MAX MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...BUT THE BEST
CONVERGENCE IS TO THE NORTH.

THE SURFACE LOW MOVES FROM JUST TO THE WEST AND NORTH WITH THE
COLD FRONT EXITING THE FAR SOUTHEAST AROUND NOON.

THE NAM KEEPS THE HEAVY RAIN JUST WEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND JUST NORTH
MONDAY MORNING. THE GFS/ECMWF BRINGS THE BAND OF MODERATE
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS MORE INTO INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
WISCONSIN. THE NSHARP FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MAINLY A
MARGINAL SEVERE POTENTIAL.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH

THE MAIN MID/UPPER TROUGH AXIS ENTERS WISCONSIN MONDAY NIGHT AND
REACHES LAKE HURON LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS STILL SOME
UPPER DIVERGENCE AND 700 MB UPWARD MOTION SOUTHEAST MONDAY
EVENING. THE NAM AND GFS STILL HAVE SOME PRECIPITATION...WITH THE
NAM BRINGING MODERATE AMOUNTS WITH ZERO TO 1 KM MIXED LAYER CAPES
AROUND 900 JOULES/KG. MID AND LOW LEVELS THEN DRY. THERE IS STILL
SOME FAIRLY STEEP ZERO TO 3 KM LAPSE RATES OF 8.4 CELSIUS/KG ON
TUESDAY...BUT LOW LEVEL RH IS ONLY AROUND 64 PCT WITH MID LEVELS
AT 44 PCT. MODELS ARE DRY ON TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH

THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE A ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE U.S./CANADIAN
BORDER AREA AS ANOTHER TROUGH DIGS A LITTLE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
U.S.  THE UPPER FLOW BECOMING A LITTLE MORE WEST/SOUTHWEST LATER
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES EARLY WEDNESDAY
WITH A WARM FRONT AND PRECIPITATION APPROACHING SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY ON THE GFS WITH MODERATE
AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION.

THE 00Z ECMWF IS SLOWER AND DRIER...FOCUSING THE PRECIPITATION
OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN THURSDAY.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM

THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE A WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS WISCONSIN
FRIDAY WITH A LARGE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S.

THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF ARE NOT AS CONSISTENT WITH EACH OTHER
BY SATURDAY WITH THE SHORTWAVES ACROSS CANADA.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT THE ECMWF PUSHES A COLD FRONT INTO SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN...WHICH IS SLOWER ON THE GFS. LATER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
BOTH MODELS PUSH THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH...WITH THE GFS MAINLY OVER
CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY...WITH THE ECMWF
FARTHER SOUTH HAVING THE FRONT REACHING KENTUCKY. AS A RESULT BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE PRECIPITATION...WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY
AMOUNTS FRIDAY...WITH THE ECMWF DRYING THINGS ON SATURDAY.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM WI
TONIGHT. A LARGE CU FIELD...MOSTLY VFR...PERSISTS DUE TO CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT. EXPECT THIS TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AS THE EVENING
WEARS ALONG. A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BRINGING A
LIGHTER WIND REGIME. FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT STILL ON TRACK WITH
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...CLEARING SKIES AND THE LIGHT WIND REGIME.
WITH THE NAM/GFS MOS IN DECENT AGREEMENT BROUGHT VSBYS DOWN INTO
THE IFR CATEGORY...WITH A FEW LIFR CONDITIONS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. INFLUENCE OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY HOLDS OFF
TO OUR WEST DURING THE DAY SO AFTER ANY MORNING FOG/STRATUS BURNS
OFF...EXPECT A QUIET VFR DAY BEFORE TSRA RETURNS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
LABOR DAY.

MARINE...HOISTED A SHORT TERM SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM WIND POINT
SOUTH TO WINTHROP HARBOR DUE TO SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 22-25 KNOTS
AT TIMES. THIS IN LINGERING TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF SURFACE
TROUGH AXIS. EXPECT THE GRADIENT TO BECOME MORE BAGGY INTO THIS EVENING
AS HIGH PRESSURE DRAWS CLOSER.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MBK




000
FXUS63 KMKX 310217
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
917 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE OVER CENTRAL WI AIDED BY WEAK
CONVERGENCE IN VICINITY OF SFC CDFNT RESULTING IN PERSISTENT ISOLD
-SHRA NEAR KPDC/KOVS. THESE -SHRA MOVING TO THE EAST AND WL AFFECT
PORTIONS OF IOWA/SAUK COUNTIES TOWARDS 03Z. IR IMAGERY SHOWING
COOLING CLOUD TOPS AND WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY SO POSSIBLE THESE
-SHRA WL HANG ON AND AFFECT KMSN AREA AROUND 05Z OR SO.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP TOWARD AND AFTER
MIDNIGHT BUT MAY BE TEMPERED BY POSSIBLE STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AS
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWS DOWN OVER SRN WI LATER TONIGHT. IN
ADDITION...SFC OBS SHOW QUITE A BIT OF STRATUS UPSTREAM OVER
CENTRAL WI BEHIND APPROACHING CDFNT WHICH WL LIKELY AFFECT NRN CWA
FOR A TIME. HENCE NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD
DENSE FOG LATE TNGT BUT MOST FAVORED AREA WOULD BE IN THE SOUTH. IF
STRATUS WERE TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT...WL LIKELY LINGER INTO SUN
MRNG OVER EASTERN AREAS AROUND AND NORTH OF WEAK FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG APPROACHING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY TRIGGER AREAS OF IFR STRATUS LATER TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...HIGHER STRATUS/MID CLOUDS IN THE WAKE OF CDFNT
ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION MAY AFFECT TAF SITES
OVERNIGHT AS WELL. BEFORE STRATUS DEVELOPS...WL LIKELY BE AREAS OF
FOG WHICH COULD BECOME DENSE FOR A TIME...ESPECIALLY AT KENW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

SHORT TERM...

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS INTO SRN WI FROM DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE TO
OUR NORTHEAST. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE HAS BEEN MAXIMIZED VCNTY THIS
BOUNDARY WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS. ONE SHORTWAVE/SPEED MAX LIFTING
NORTHEAST WITH ANOTHER VORT WRAPPING EAST FROM ERN MN/WRN WI. WILL
LINGER THESE SHRA INTO THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE INFLUENCE OF SECOND
VORT AND LOSS OF HEATING PUT AN END TO THE PRECIP. THEN FOCUS SHIFTS
TO CLEARING TREND AND FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT LATER ON. DEW POINTS
REMAIN UP AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS INCREASED DUE TO THE NUMEROUS
SHRA. SO WITH A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING ACROSS EXPECTING
SOME FOG AND STRATUS TO TAKE SHAPE. THIS PLAYED OUT ON LLVL RH
PROGS AND MOS GUID. SOME GOOD CONSENSUS WITH THE LATTER...SO NOT
MUCH CHANGE TO GOING WX GRIDS IN THIS REGARD.

SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
WEAK SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST. SOUTHERLY FLOW STARTS TO DEVELOP.
ANY INFLUENCE OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE PLAINS WILL REMAIN
TO OUR WEST. BY DAYS END 925 TEMPS MODIFY TO 21-24C. SO WARMER TEMPS
WITH SOME 80S RETURNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CWA.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH

A RATHER STRONG SHORTWAVE EXITS THE PLAINS AND MOVES INTO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE LEAD SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS
WISCONSIN MONDAY WITH THE BEST DYNAMICS JUST TO THE NORTH AS A
110 KNOT JET MAX MOVES TO THE NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH A
SECOND SPEED MAX PUSHING ACROSS WISCONSIN. STRONG UPPER
DIVERGENCE MAINLY NEAR AND JUST TO THE WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER LATE SUNDAY NIGHT WEAKENS SOMEWHAT AND LIFTS NORTHEAST
ACROSS WISCONSIN MONDAY. THE STRONGEST UPWARD MOTION PUSHES INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY SUNRISE AND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
MONDAY MORNING. THE 850/700 MB THERMAL RIDGE MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. A 50 KNOT 850/700
MB  SPEED MAX MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...BUT THE BEST
CONVERGENCE IS TO THE NORTH.

THE SURFACE LOW MOVES FROM JUST TO THE WEST AND NORTH WITH THE
COLD FRONT EXITING THE FAR SOUTHEAST AROUND NOON.

THE NAM KEEPS THE HEAVY RAIN JUST WEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND JUST NORTH
MONDAY MORNING. THE GFS/ECMWF BRINGS THE BAND OF MODERATE
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS MORE INTO INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
WISCONSIN. THE NSHARP FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MAINLY A
MARGINAL SEVERE POTENTIAL.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH

THE MAIN MID/UPPER TROUGH AXIS ENTERS WISCONSIN MONDAY NIGHT AND
REACHES LAKE HURON LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS STILL SOME
UPPER DIVERGENCE AND 700 MB UPWARD MOTION SOUTHEAST MONDAY
EVENING. THE NAM AND GFS STILL HAVE SOME PRECIPITATION...WITH THE
NAM BRINGING MODERATE AMOUNTS WITH ZERO TO 1 KM MIXED LAYER CAPES
AROUND 900 JOULES/KG. MID AND LOW LEVELS THEN DRY. THERE IS STILL
SOME FAIRLY STEEP ZERO TO 3 KM LAPSE RATES OF 8.4 CELSIUS/KG ON
TUESDAY...BUT LOW LEVEL RH IS ONLY AROUND 64 PCT WITH MID LEVELS
AT 44 PCT. MODELS ARE DRY ON TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH

THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE A ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE U.S./CANADIAN
BORDER AREA AS ANOTHER TROUGH DIGS A LITTLE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
U.S.  THE UPPER FLOW BECOMING A LITTLE MORE WEST/SOUTHWEST LATER
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES EARLY WEDNESDAY
WITH A WARM FRONT AND PRECIPITATION APPROACHING SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY ON THE GFS WITH MODERATE
AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION.

THE 00Z ECMWF IS SLOWER AND DRIER...FOCUSING THE PRECIPITATION
OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN THURSDAY.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM

THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE A WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS WISCONSIN
FRIDAY WITH A LARGE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S.

THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF ARE NOT AS CONSISTENT WITH EACH OTHER
BY SATURDAY WITH THE SHORTWAVES ACROSS CANADA.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT THE ECMWF PUSHES A COLD FRONT INTO SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN...WHICH IS SLOWER ON THE GFS. LATER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
BOTH MODELS PUSH THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH...WITH THE GFS MAINLY OVER
CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY...WITH THE ECMWF
FARTHER SOUTH HAVING THE FRONT REACHING KENTUCKY. AS A RESULT BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE PRECIPITATION...WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY
AMOUNTS FRIDAY...WITH THE ECMWF DRYING THINGS ON SATURDAY.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM WI
TONIGHT. A LARGE CU FIELD...MOSTLY VFR...PERSISTS DUE TO CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT. EXPECT THIS TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AS THE EVENING
WEARS ALONG. A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BRINGING A
LIGHTER WIND REGIME. FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT STILL ON TRACK WITH
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...CLEARING SKIES AND THE LIGHT WIND REGIME.
WITH THE NAM/GFS MOS IN DECENT AGREEMENT BROUGHT VSBYS DOWN INTO
THE IFR CATEGORY...WITH A FEW LIFR CONDITIONS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. INFLUENCE OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY HOLDS OFF
TO OUR WEST DURING THE DAY SO AFTER ANY MORNING FOG/STRATUS BURNS
OFF...EXPECT A QUIET VFR DAY BEFORE TSRA RETURNS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
LABOR DAY.

MARINE...HOISTED A SHORT TERM SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM WIND POINT
SOUTH TO WINTHROP HARBOR DUE TO SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 22-25 KNOTS
AT TIMES. THIS IN LINGERING TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF SURFACE
TROUGH AXIS. EXPECT THE GRADIENT TO BECOME MORE BAGGY INTO THIS EVENING
AS HIGH PRESSURE DRAWS CLOSER.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MBK





000
FXUS63 KMKX 302004
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
304 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...

.REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS INTO SRN WI FROM DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE TO
OUR NORTHEAST. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE HAS BEEN MAXIMIZED VCNTY THIS
BOUNDARY WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS. ONE SHORTWAVE/SPEED MAX LIFTING
NORTHEAST WITH ANOTHER VORT WRAPPING EAST FROM ERN MN/WRN WI. WILL
LINGER THESE SHRA INTO THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE INFLUENCE OF SECOND
VORT AND LOSS OF HEATING PUT AN END TO THE PRECIP. THEN FOCUS SHIFTS
TO CLEARING TREND AND FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT LATER ON. DEW POINTS
REMAIN UP AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS INCREASED DUE TO THE NUMEROUS
SHRA. SO WITH A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING ACROSS EXPECTING
SOME FOG AND STRATUS TO TAKE SHAPE. THIS PLAYED OUT ON LLVL RH
PROGS AND MOS GUID. SOME GOOD CONSENSUS WITH THE LATTER...SO NOT
MUCH CHANGE TO GOING WX GRIDS IN THIS REGARD.

.SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
WEAK SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST. SOUTHERLY FLOW STARTS TO DEVELOP.
ANY INFLUENCE OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE PLAINS WILL REMAIN
TO OUR WEST. BY DAYS END 925 TEMPS MODIFY TO 21-24C. SO WARMER TEMPS
WITH SOME 80S RETURNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CWA.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH

A RATHER STRONG SHORTWAVE EXITS THE PLAINS AND MOVES INTO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE LEAD SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS
WISCONSIN MONDAY WITH THE BEST DYNAMICS JUST TO THE NORTH AS A
110 KNOT JET MAX MOVES TO THE NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH A
SECOND SPEED MAX PUSHING ACROSS WISCONSIN. STRONG UPPER
DIVERGENCE MAINLY NEAR AND JUST TO THE WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER LATE SUNDAY NIGHT WEAKENS SOMEWHAT AND LIFTS NORTHEAST
ACROSS WISCONSIN MONDAY. THE STRONGEST UPWARD MOTION PUSHES INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY SUNRISE AND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
MONDAY MORNING. THE 850/700 MB THERMAL RIDGE MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. A 50 KNOT 850/700
MB  SPEED MAX MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...BUT THE BEST
CONVERGENCE IS TO THE NORTH.

THE SURFACE LOW MOVES FROM JUST TO THE WEST AND NORTH WITH THE
COLD FRONT EXITING THE FAR SOUTHEAST AROUND NOON.

THE NAM KEEPS THE HEAVY RAIN JUST WEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND JUST NORTH
MONDAY MORNING. THE GFS/ECMWF BRINGS THE BAND OF MODERATE
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS MORE INTO INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
WISCONSIN. THE NSHARP FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MAINLY A
MARGINAL SEVERE POTENTIAL.

.MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH

THE MAIN MID/UPPER TROUGH AXIS ENTERS WISCONSIN MONDAY NIGHT AND
REACHES LAKE HURON LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS STILL SOME
UPPER DIVERGENCE AND 700 MB UPWARD MOTION SOUTHEAST MONDAY
EVENING. THE NAM AND GFS STILL HAVE SOME PRECIPITATION...WITH THE
NAM BRINGING MODERATE AMOUNTS WITH ZERO TO 1 KM MIXED LAYER CAPES
AROUND 900 JOULES/KG. MID AND LOW LEVELS THEN DRY. THERE IS STILL
SOME FAIRLY STEEP ZERO TO 3 KM LAPSE RATES OF 8.4 CELSIUS/KG ON
TUESDAY...BUT LOW LEVEL RH IS ONLY AROUND 64 PCT WITH MID LEVELS
AT 44 PCT. MODELS ARE DRY ON TUESDAY.


.LONG TERM...

.WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH

THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE A ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE U.S./CANADIAN
BORDER AREA AS ANOTHER TROUGH DIGS A LITTLE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
U.S.  THE UPPER FLOW BECOMING A LITTLE MORE WEST/SOUTHWEST LATER
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES EARLY WEDNESDAY
WITH A WARM FRONT AND PRECIPITATION APPROACHING SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY ON THE GFS WITH MODERATE
AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION.

THE 00Z ECMWF IS SLOWER AND DRIER...FOCUSING THE PRECIPITATION
OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN THURSDAY.

.FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM

THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE A WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS WISCONSIN
FRIDAY WITH A LARGE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S.

THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF ARE NOT AS CONSISTENT WITH EACH OTHER
BY SATURDAY WITH THE SHORTWAVES ACROSS CANADA.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT THE ECMWF PUSHES A COLD FRONT INTO SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN...WHICH IS SLOWER ON THE GFS. LATER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
BOTH MODELS PUSH THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH...WITH THE GFS MAINLY OVER
CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY...WITH THE ECMWF
FARTHER SOUTH HAVING THE FRONT REACHING KENTUCKY. AS A RESULT BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE PRECIPITATION...WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY
AMOUNTS FRIDAY...WITH THE ECMWF DRYING THINGS ON SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM WI
TONIGHT. A LARGE CU FIELD...MOSTLY VFR...PERSISTS DUE TO CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT. EXPECT THIS TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AS THE EVENING
WEARS ALONG. A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BRINGING A
LIGHTER WIND REGIME. FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT STILL ON TRACK WITH
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...CLEARING SKIES AND THE LIGHT WIND REGIME.
WITH THE NAM/GFS MOS IN DECENT AGREEMENT BROUGHT VSBYS DOWN INTO
THE IFR CATEGORY...WITH A FEW LIFR CONDITIONS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. INFLUENCE OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY HOLDS OFF
TO OUR WEST DURING THE DAY SO AFTER ANY MORNING FOG/STRATUS BURNS
OFF...EXPECT A QUIET VFR DAY BEFORE TSRA RETURNS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
LABOR DAY.

&&

.MARINE...HOISTED A SHORT TERM SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM WIND POINT
SOUTH TO WINTHROP HARBOR DUE TO SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 22-25 KNOTS
AT TIMES. THIS IN LINGERING TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF SURFACE
TROUGH AXIS. EXPECT THE GRADIENT TO BECOME MORE BAGGY INTO THIS EVENING
AS HIGH PRESSURE DRAWS CLOSER.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ646.

&&

$$

TONIGHT/SUNDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...COLLAR
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...HENTZ




000
FXUS63 KMKX 302004
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
304 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...

.REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS INTO SRN WI FROM DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE TO
OUR NORTHEAST. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE HAS BEEN MAXIMIZED VCNTY THIS
BOUNDARY WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS. ONE SHORTWAVE/SPEED MAX LIFTING
NORTHEAST WITH ANOTHER VORT WRAPPING EAST FROM ERN MN/WRN WI. WILL
LINGER THESE SHRA INTO THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE INFLUENCE OF SECOND
VORT AND LOSS OF HEATING PUT AN END TO THE PRECIP. THEN FOCUS SHIFTS
TO CLEARING TREND AND FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT LATER ON. DEW POINTS
REMAIN UP AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS INCREASED DUE TO THE NUMEROUS
SHRA. SO WITH A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING ACROSS EXPECTING
SOME FOG AND STRATUS TO TAKE SHAPE. THIS PLAYED OUT ON LLVL RH
PROGS AND MOS GUID. SOME GOOD CONSENSUS WITH THE LATTER...SO NOT
MUCH CHANGE TO GOING WX GRIDS IN THIS REGARD.

.SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
WEAK SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST. SOUTHERLY FLOW STARTS TO DEVELOP.
ANY INFLUENCE OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE PLAINS WILL REMAIN
TO OUR WEST. BY DAYS END 925 TEMPS MODIFY TO 21-24C. SO WARMER TEMPS
WITH SOME 80S RETURNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CWA.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH

A RATHER STRONG SHORTWAVE EXITS THE PLAINS AND MOVES INTO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE LEAD SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS
WISCONSIN MONDAY WITH THE BEST DYNAMICS JUST TO THE NORTH AS A
110 KNOT JET MAX MOVES TO THE NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH A
SECOND SPEED MAX PUSHING ACROSS WISCONSIN. STRONG UPPER
DIVERGENCE MAINLY NEAR AND JUST TO THE WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER LATE SUNDAY NIGHT WEAKENS SOMEWHAT AND LIFTS NORTHEAST
ACROSS WISCONSIN MONDAY. THE STRONGEST UPWARD MOTION PUSHES INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY SUNRISE AND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
MONDAY MORNING. THE 850/700 MB THERMAL RIDGE MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. A 50 KNOT 850/700
MB  SPEED MAX MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...BUT THE BEST
CONVERGENCE IS TO THE NORTH.

THE SURFACE LOW MOVES FROM JUST TO THE WEST AND NORTH WITH THE
COLD FRONT EXITING THE FAR SOUTHEAST AROUND NOON.

THE NAM KEEPS THE HEAVY RAIN JUST WEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND JUST NORTH
MONDAY MORNING. THE GFS/ECMWF BRINGS THE BAND OF MODERATE
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS MORE INTO INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
WISCONSIN. THE NSHARP FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MAINLY A
MARGINAL SEVERE POTENTIAL.

.MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH

THE MAIN MID/UPPER TROUGH AXIS ENTERS WISCONSIN MONDAY NIGHT AND
REACHES LAKE HURON LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS STILL SOME
UPPER DIVERGENCE AND 700 MB UPWARD MOTION SOUTHEAST MONDAY
EVENING. THE NAM AND GFS STILL HAVE SOME PRECIPITATION...WITH THE
NAM BRINGING MODERATE AMOUNTS WITH ZERO TO 1 KM MIXED LAYER CAPES
AROUND 900 JOULES/KG. MID AND LOW LEVELS THEN DRY. THERE IS STILL
SOME FAIRLY STEEP ZERO TO 3 KM LAPSE RATES OF 8.4 CELSIUS/KG ON
TUESDAY...BUT LOW LEVEL RH IS ONLY AROUND 64 PCT WITH MID LEVELS
AT 44 PCT. MODELS ARE DRY ON TUESDAY.


.LONG TERM...

.WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH

THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE A ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE U.S./CANADIAN
BORDER AREA AS ANOTHER TROUGH DIGS A LITTLE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
U.S.  THE UPPER FLOW BECOMING A LITTLE MORE WEST/SOUTHWEST LATER
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES EARLY WEDNESDAY
WITH A WARM FRONT AND PRECIPITATION APPROACHING SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY ON THE GFS WITH MODERATE
AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION.

THE 00Z ECMWF IS SLOWER AND DRIER...FOCUSING THE PRECIPITATION
OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN THURSDAY.

.FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM

THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE A WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS WISCONSIN
FRIDAY WITH A LARGE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S.

THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF ARE NOT AS CONSISTENT WITH EACH OTHER
BY SATURDAY WITH THE SHORTWAVES ACROSS CANADA.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT THE ECMWF PUSHES A COLD FRONT INTO SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN...WHICH IS SLOWER ON THE GFS. LATER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
BOTH MODELS PUSH THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH...WITH THE GFS MAINLY OVER
CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY...WITH THE ECMWF
FARTHER SOUTH HAVING THE FRONT REACHING KENTUCKY. AS A RESULT BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE PRECIPITATION...WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY
AMOUNTS FRIDAY...WITH THE ECMWF DRYING THINGS ON SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM WI
TONIGHT. A LARGE CU FIELD...MOSTLY VFR...PERSISTS DUE TO CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT. EXPECT THIS TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AS THE EVENING
WEARS ALONG. A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BRINGING A
LIGHTER WIND REGIME. FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT STILL ON TRACK WITH
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...CLEARING SKIES AND THE LIGHT WIND REGIME.
WITH THE NAM/GFS MOS IN DECENT AGREEMENT BROUGHT VSBYS DOWN INTO
THE IFR CATEGORY...WITH A FEW LIFR CONDITIONS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. INFLUENCE OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY HOLDS OFF
TO OUR WEST DURING THE DAY SO AFTER ANY MORNING FOG/STRATUS BURNS
OFF...EXPECT A QUIET VFR DAY BEFORE TSRA RETURNS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
LABOR DAY.

&&

.MARINE...HOISTED A SHORT TERM SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM WIND POINT
SOUTH TO WINTHROP HARBOR DUE TO SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 22-25 KNOTS
AT TIMES. THIS IN LINGERING TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF SURFACE
TROUGH AXIS. EXPECT THE GRADIENT TO BECOME MORE BAGGY INTO THIS EVENING
AS HIGH PRESSURE DRAWS CLOSER.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ646.

&&

$$

TONIGHT/SUNDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...COLLAR
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...HENTZ





000
FXUS63 KMKX 301530
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1030 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...RAP/WATER VAPOR ANIMATION SHOW SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED
SPEED MAX LIFTING NORTHEAST. NMRS SHRA ACRS SRN WI. MES MODELS
SHOW THIS ACTIVITY LINGERING INTO THE AFTN. SECONDARY SHORTWAVE
DROPPING SEWD FROM MN NOT LIKELY TO HAVE MUCH HEATING TO WORK WITH
AS LOW CLOUD COVER WIDESPREAD. NEVERTHELESS STILL EXPECT SOME SHRA
ACTIVITY TO DOMINATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOW LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IN
VCNTY AND UPPER CYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTING.

PC

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...PLENTY OF MVFR CIGS TO CONTEND WITH INTO THE
AFTN AND LIKELY THE ERLY EVE AS WELL. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ALONG
WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES. SURFACE/850 TROUGH AXIS ALSO IN THE
VICINITY WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. ANY HOLES IN THE OVC
ACRS ERN MN AND NE IA FILLING RIGHT BACK IN. LOW CLOUD COVER
GRADUALLY OVERSPREADING FAR ERN WI THOUGH SLOWER TO INCREASE
THERE. WITH SOME DIURNAL DISSIPATION TO THIS CLOUD COVER...FOG
DEVELOPMENT STILL SEEMS ON TRACK WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
LIGHT WIND REGIME.

PC

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

TODAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

A WELL DEFINED MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE OVER CENTRAL IOWA EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AND TRACK TO NEAR GREEN BAY BY EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL TAKE A SIMILAR PATH.
THE FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS EXITING TO THE NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS STUFF WAS GENERALLY
ASSOCIATED WITH A FAVORABLE COMBINATION OF A LOW LEVEL JET AND SOME
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE FROM THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET.
A SECOND ROUND SHOULD LIFT UP HERE BETWEEN 09-13Z THIS
MORNING...MORE DIRECTLY TIED TO THE CIRCULATION OF THE MID LEVEL
SHORT WAVE. THE HRRR DOESN/T DO MUCH WITH THIS SECOND ROUND...IN
FACT WEAKENING IT AS IT GETS UP HERE. WILL TRY TO REFINE THE TIMING
OF POPS AND COVERAGE TO MATCH THESE TRENDS. THE AFTERNOON COULD
FEATURE SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM AS THE
UPPER TROF AXIS MOVES THROUGH. THE SHOWERS/STORMS ARE MOVING
QUICKLY...SO DESPITE THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE
COLUMN...FLOODING CONCERNS ARE NIL. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S WITH
DEWPOINTS REMAINING HIGH...SO IT WILL FEEL MUGGY OUT THERE.

TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

SOME OF THE MODELS ARE DEPICTING SOME SHOWERS INTO THE EVENING WITH
A SECONDARY SHORT WAVE EXITING...BUT THE COLUMN IS DRYING OUT AND
THE BEST FORCING MOVES EAST. SO AT THIS POINT...WILL CONTINUE THE
DRY FORECAST. STILL HUMID WITH ELEVATED DEWPOINTS OVERNIGHT. THE
PATTERN TURNS RATHER BAGGY WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS...SO WILL THROW
IN SOME PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE A PLEASANT DAY WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE.
MODELS ARE SHOWING A WEAK WAVE PASSING THROUGH...BUT MODELS ARE
SHOWING A GOOD AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...SO
KEPT THE FORECAST DRY. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE LIKELY IN THE WEST BY DAYBREAK MONDAY
MORNING AND THEN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...BUT THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT.
IT LOOKS LIKE A DECENT AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY TO GO ALONG WITH
AROUND 45 KNOTS OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR. SPC DAY 3 CONVECTIVE
OUTLOOK HAS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

IT LOOKS MAINLY DRY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA. A COUPLE MODELS ARE SHOWING A WEAK WAVE
OR TWO BRINGING SOME SPLOTCHY QPF HERE AND THERE...BUT NOT SEEING
A CONSISTENT SIGNAL AT THIS POINT SO KEPT THE FORECAST DRY.

A RETURN OF MOISTURE UNDER SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS BACK TO THE AREA THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES FOR THE TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TIME PERIOD SHOULD
REMAIN NEAR TO A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...MVFR TO IFR CIGS SHOULD OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR THIS
AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES BY TO THE NORTH. MOSTLY PLACES
SHOULD BE VFR BY 19-20Z. DRIER AIR SHOULD EVENTUALLY WORK IN ON
INCREASING SOUTHWEST THEN WESTERLY WINDS.  WINDS BECOME LIGHT
TONIGHT AND WITH LINGERING HIGH DEWPOINTS...WE MAY SEE SOME PATCHY
FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DAVIS
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DDV





000
FXUS63 KMKX 301530
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1030 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...RAP/WATER VAPOR ANIMATION SHOW SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED
SPEED MAX LIFTING NORTHEAST. NMRS SHRA ACRS SRN WI. MES MODELS
SHOW THIS ACTIVITY LINGERING INTO THE AFTN. SECONDARY SHORTWAVE
DROPPING SEWD FROM MN NOT LIKELY TO HAVE MUCH HEATING TO WORK WITH
AS LOW CLOUD COVER WIDESPREAD. NEVERTHELESS STILL EXPECT SOME SHRA
ACTIVITY TO DOMINATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOW LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IN
VCNTY AND UPPER CYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTING.

PC

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...PLENTY OF MVFR CIGS TO CONTEND WITH INTO THE
AFTN AND LIKELY THE ERLY EVE AS WELL. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ALONG
WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES. SURFACE/850 TROUGH AXIS ALSO IN THE
VICINITY WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. ANY HOLES IN THE OVC
ACRS ERN MN AND NE IA FILLING RIGHT BACK IN. LOW CLOUD COVER
GRADUALLY OVERSPREADING FAR ERN WI THOUGH SLOWER TO INCREASE
THERE. WITH SOME DIURNAL DISSIPATION TO THIS CLOUD COVER...FOG
DEVELOPMENT STILL SEEMS ON TRACK WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
LIGHT WIND REGIME.

PC

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

TODAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

A WELL DEFINED MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE OVER CENTRAL IOWA EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AND TRACK TO NEAR GREEN BAY BY EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL TAKE A SIMILAR PATH.
THE FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS EXITING TO THE NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS STUFF WAS GENERALLY
ASSOCIATED WITH A FAVORABLE COMBINATION OF A LOW LEVEL JET AND SOME
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE FROM THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET.
A SECOND ROUND SHOULD LIFT UP HERE BETWEEN 09-13Z THIS
MORNING...MORE DIRECTLY TIED TO THE CIRCULATION OF THE MID LEVEL
SHORT WAVE. THE HRRR DOESN/T DO MUCH WITH THIS SECOND ROUND...IN
FACT WEAKENING IT AS IT GETS UP HERE. WILL TRY TO REFINE THE TIMING
OF POPS AND COVERAGE TO MATCH THESE TRENDS. THE AFTERNOON COULD
FEATURE SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM AS THE
UPPER TROF AXIS MOVES THROUGH. THE SHOWERS/STORMS ARE MOVING
QUICKLY...SO DESPITE THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE
COLUMN...FLOODING CONCERNS ARE NIL. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S WITH
DEWPOINTS REMAINING HIGH...SO IT WILL FEEL MUGGY OUT THERE.

TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

SOME OF THE MODELS ARE DEPICTING SOME SHOWERS INTO THE EVENING WITH
A SECONDARY SHORT WAVE EXITING...BUT THE COLUMN IS DRYING OUT AND
THE BEST FORCING MOVES EAST. SO AT THIS POINT...WILL CONTINUE THE
DRY FORECAST. STILL HUMID WITH ELEVATED DEWPOINTS OVERNIGHT. THE
PATTERN TURNS RATHER BAGGY WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS...SO WILL THROW
IN SOME PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE A PLEASANT DAY WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE.
MODELS ARE SHOWING A WEAK WAVE PASSING THROUGH...BUT MODELS ARE
SHOWING A GOOD AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...SO
KEPT THE FORECAST DRY. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE LIKELY IN THE WEST BY DAYBREAK MONDAY
MORNING AND THEN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...BUT THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT.
IT LOOKS LIKE A DECENT AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY TO GO ALONG WITH
AROUND 45 KNOTS OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR. SPC DAY 3 CONVECTIVE
OUTLOOK HAS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

IT LOOKS MAINLY DRY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA. A COUPLE MODELS ARE SHOWING A WEAK WAVE
OR TWO BRINGING SOME SPLOTCHY QPF HERE AND THERE...BUT NOT SEEING
A CONSISTENT SIGNAL AT THIS POINT SO KEPT THE FORECAST DRY.

A RETURN OF MOISTURE UNDER SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS BACK TO THE AREA THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES FOR THE TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TIME PERIOD SHOULD
REMAIN NEAR TO A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...MVFR TO IFR CIGS SHOULD OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR THIS
AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES BY TO THE NORTH. MOSTLY PLACES
SHOULD BE VFR BY 19-20Z. DRIER AIR SHOULD EVENTUALLY WORK IN ON
INCREASING SOUTHWEST THEN WESTERLY WINDS.  WINDS BECOME LIGHT
TONIGHT AND WITH LINGERING HIGH DEWPOINTS...WE MAY SEE SOME PATCHY
FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DAVIS
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DDV




000
FXUS63 KMKX 300819
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
319 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.TODAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

A WELL DEFINED MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE OVER CENTRAL IOWA EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AND TRACK TO NEAR GREEN BAY BY EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL TAKE A SIMILAR PATH.
THE FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS EXITING TO THE NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS STUFF WAS GENERALLY
ASSOCIATED WITH A FAVORABLE COMBINATION OF A LOW LEVEL JET AND SOME
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE FROM THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET.
A SECOND ROUND SHOULD LIFT UP HERE BETWEEN 09-13Z THIS
MORNING...MORE DIRECTLY TIED TO THE CIRCULATION OF THE MID LEVEL
SHORT WAVE. THE HRRR DOESN/T DO MUCH WITH THIS SECOND ROUND...IN
FACT WEAKENING IT AS IT GETS UP HERE. WILL TRY TO REFINE THE TIMING
OF POPS AND COVERAGE TO MATCH THESE TRENDS. THE AFTERNOON COULD
FEATURE SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM AS THE
UPPER TROF AXIS MOVES THROUGH. THE SHOWERS/STORMS ARE MOVING
QUICKLY...SO DESPITE THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE
COLUMN...FLOODING CONCERNS ARE NIL. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S WITH
DEWPOINTS REMAINING HIGH...SO IT WILL FEEL MUGGY OUT THERE.

.TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

SOME OF THE MODELS ARE DEPICTING SOME SHOWERS INTO THE EVENING WITH
A SECONDARY SHORT WAVE EXITING...BUT THE COLUMN IS DRYING OUT AND
THE BEST FORCING MOVES EAST. SO AT THIS POINT...WILL CONTINUE THE
DRY FORECAST. STILL HUMID WITH ELEVATED DEWPOINTS OVERNIGHT. THE
PATTERN TURNS RATHER BAGGY WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS...SO WILL THROW
IN SOME PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.SUNDAY AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE A PLEASANT DAY WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE.
MODELS ARE SHOWING A WEAK WAVE PASSING THROUGH...BUT MODELS ARE
SHOWING A GOOD AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...SO
KEPT THE FORECAST DRY. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE LIKELY IN THE WEST BY DAYBREAK MONDAY
MORNING AND THEN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...BUT THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT.
IT LOOKS LIKE A DECENT AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY TO GO ALONG WITH
AROUND 45 KNOTS OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR. SPC DAY 3 CONVECTIVE
OUTLOOK HAS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS.

.TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

IT LOOKS MAINLY DRY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA. A COUPLE MODELS ARE SHOWING A WEAK WAVE
OR TWO BRINGING SOME SPLOTCHY QPF HERE AND THERE...BUT NOT SEEING
A CONSISTENT SIGNAL AT THIS POINT SO KEPT THE FORECAST DRY.

A RETURN OF MOISTURE UNDER SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS BACK TO THE AREA THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES FOR THE TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TIME PERIOD SHOULD
REMAIN NEAR TO A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...MVFR TO IFR CIGS SHOULD OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR THIS
AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES BY TO THE NORTH. MOSTLY PLACES
SHOULD BE VFR BY 19-20Z. DRIER AIR SHOULD EVENTUALLY WORK IN ON
INCREASING SOUTHWEST THEN WESTERLY WINDS.  WINDS BECOME LIGHT
TONIGHT AND WITH LINGERING HIGH DEWPOINTS...WE MAY SEE SOME PATCHY
FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION...DAVIS
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DDV





000
FXUS63 KMKX 300819
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
319 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.TODAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

A WELL DEFINED MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE OVER CENTRAL IOWA EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AND TRACK TO NEAR GREEN BAY BY EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL TAKE A SIMILAR PATH.
THE FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS EXITING TO THE NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS STUFF WAS GENERALLY
ASSOCIATED WITH A FAVORABLE COMBINATION OF A LOW LEVEL JET AND SOME
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE FROM THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET.
A SECOND ROUND SHOULD LIFT UP HERE BETWEEN 09-13Z THIS
MORNING...MORE DIRECTLY TIED TO THE CIRCULATION OF THE MID LEVEL
SHORT WAVE. THE HRRR DOESN/T DO MUCH WITH THIS SECOND ROUND...IN
FACT WEAKENING IT AS IT GETS UP HERE. WILL TRY TO REFINE THE TIMING
OF POPS AND COVERAGE TO MATCH THESE TRENDS. THE AFTERNOON COULD
FEATURE SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM AS THE
UPPER TROF AXIS MOVES THROUGH. THE SHOWERS/STORMS ARE MOVING
QUICKLY...SO DESPITE THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE
COLUMN...FLOODING CONCERNS ARE NIL. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S WITH
DEWPOINTS REMAINING HIGH...SO IT WILL FEEL MUGGY OUT THERE.

.TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

SOME OF THE MODELS ARE DEPICTING SOME SHOWERS INTO THE EVENING WITH
A SECONDARY SHORT WAVE EXITING...BUT THE COLUMN IS DRYING OUT AND
THE BEST FORCING MOVES EAST. SO AT THIS POINT...WILL CONTINUE THE
DRY FORECAST. STILL HUMID WITH ELEVATED DEWPOINTS OVERNIGHT. THE
PATTERN TURNS RATHER BAGGY WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS...SO WILL THROW
IN SOME PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.SUNDAY AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE A PLEASANT DAY WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE.
MODELS ARE SHOWING A WEAK WAVE PASSING THROUGH...BUT MODELS ARE
SHOWING A GOOD AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...SO
KEPT THE FORECAST DRY. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE LIKELY IN THE WEST BY DAYBREAK MONDAY
MORNING AND THEN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...BUT THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT.
IT LOOKS LIKE A DECENT AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY TO GO ALONG WITH
AROUND 45 KNOTS OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR. SPC DAY 3 CONVECTIVE
OUTLOOK HAS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS.

.TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

IT LOOKS MAINLY DRY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA. A COUPLE MODELS ARE SHOWING A WEAK WAVE
OR TWO BRINGING SOME SPLOTCHY QPF HERE AND THERE...BUT NOT SEEING
A CONSISTENT SIGNAL AT THIS POINT SO KEPT THE FORECAST DRY.

A RETURN OF MOISTURE UNDER SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS BACK TO THE AREA THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES FOR THE TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TIME PERIOD SHOULD
REMAIN NEAR TO A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...MVFR TO IFR CIGS SHOULD OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR THIS
AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES BY TO THE NORTH. MOSTLY PLACES
SHOULD BE VFR BY 19-20Z. DRIER AIR SHOULD EVENTUALLY WORK IN ON
INCREASING SOUTHWEST THEN WESTERLY WINDS.  WINDS BECOME LIGHT
TONIGHT AND WITH LINGERING HIGH DEWPOINTS...WE MAY SEE SOME PATCHY
FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION...DAVIS
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DDV




000
FXUS63 KMKX 300239
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
939 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.UPDATE...WILL CONTINUE HIGH POPS FOR CONVECTION OVERNIGHT AS LOW
LEVEL JET AND VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL IA MOVE
ACROSS WI THROUGH SAT MRNG.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...MAY TRIM BACK LOWER CIGS UNTIL -SHRA MOVE
ACROSS SRN WI LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT MRNG ASSOCD WITH UPSTREAM
SHORT WAVE OVER CENTRAL IA. OTHERWISE...EXPCD SCT TO NMRS
CONVECTION TO AFFECT TAF SITES TNGT.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MBK




000
FXUS63 KMKX 300239
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
939 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.UPDATE...WILL CONTINUE HIGH POPS FOR CONVECTION OVERNIGHT AS LOW
LEVEL JET AND VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL IA MOVE
ACROSS WI THROUGH SAT MRNG.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...MAY TRIM BACK LOWER CIGS UNTIL -SHRA MOVE
ACROSS SRN WI LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT MRNG ASSOCD WITH UPSTREAM
SHORT WAVE OVER CENTRAL IA. OTHERWISE...EXPCD SCT TO NMRS
CONVECTION TO AFFECT TAF SITES TNGT.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MBK





000
FXUS63 KMKX 292019
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
319 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...

.TONIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
VERY MOIST FLOW IN PLACE AHEAD OF MID LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM
THE PLAINS. ON WATER VAPOR SEEING SOME MOISTURE FLOWING NORTHWARD INTO
THIS SYSTEM FROM THE REMNANTS OF MARIE IN THE GULF COAST VCNTY SE TX.
AIRMASS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE ACROSS SRN WI WITH ML CAPE VALUES
AROUND 1500 J/KG. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE 1.8 TO 2.0 WITH SOME
BORDERLINE SHEAR PARAMETERS...THOUGH BEST SHEAR IS A BIT NORTHWEST
OF THE CWA. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NOT SUPPORTIVE OF HAIL THOUGH
DOWNDRAFT CAPE PUSHING 1000 J/KG. EXPECTING CONVECTION TO INCREASE
INTO THIS EVENING WITHIN DCVA ZONE OF ADVANCING TROUGH AXIS. WILL
BOOST POPS FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE BETTER DYNAMICS APPROACH AND
MOVE INTO SRN WI. MODELS HAVE HIGHEST QPF ACROSS WRN WI THROUGH 6Z
AND THEN WEAKEN CONVECTION A BIT THROUGH 12Z AS AIRMASS STABILIZES
SOMEWHAT. STILL EXPECTING MAIN THREAT TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH
TALL SKINNY CAPE...THE HIGH PW/S AND SLOW MBE VELOCITIES. APPEARS
URBAN/SMALL STREAM FLOODING THOUGH ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL
EXISTS ESP IN NW CWA WHERE DYNAMICS AND BETTER INSTABILITY LIKELY TO
COINCIDE AND CLOSER TO PROGGD QPF MAX.

.SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
WEAK SURFACE LOW SHIFTS NORTHEAST OF WI. SRN WI WILL BE SITUATED IN
LOW LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. FIRST VORT PASSES EARLY WITH A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE
COMING IN DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA IN THE
AFTERNOON. ANY HEATING WITH BREAKS WILL ALLOW AIRMASS TO DESTABILIZE
ENOUGH TO KICK OFF ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WITH SHORTWAVE AND LOW LEVEL
FEATURES.

.SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH

A SECONDARY WEAKER EXITS SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN SATURDAY EVENING.

UPPER DIVERGENCE ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN IS MAINLY NEUTRAL.
THE 700 MB RH INCREASES OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE MID LEVEL DEW POINTS RISE. THE NAM/GFS AND ECMWF
ARE ALL DRY.

.SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH

THE GFS AND ECMWF TAKES A RATHER STRONG SHORTWAVE ACROSS
WISCONSIN DURING THIS PERIOD. THE GFS/ECMWF AND DGEX BRING A BAND
OF MODERATE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN
LATER SUNDAY NIGHT...AND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY MORNING.
THE LOCAL SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETER IS AROUND 70 TO 75
PCT...DESPITE THE LATE NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING TIMING. HOWEVER THE
NSHARP FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE LOW OR ONLY MARGINAL SEVERE
POTENTIAL.

.LONG TERM...

.MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH

THE GFS AND ECMWF TAKES A SECOND WEAK SHORTWAVE ACROSS WISCONSIN
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. ONLY THE ECMWF HAS SOME SCATTERED LIGHT
PRECIPITATION.

.WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH

THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE A ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE U.S./CANADIAN
BORDER AREA AS ANOTHER TROUGH DIGS A LITTLE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
U.S. WITH THE UPPER FLOW BECOMING A LITTLE MORE WEST/SOUTHWESTTHURSDAY.
THE MODELS TAKE A WEAK SHORTWAVE OR POSSIBLY JUST CONVECTIVE
FEEDBACK IN THE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS WISCONSIN FRIDAY.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY WITH A
WARM FRONT AND PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
PRECIPITATION...THE FRONT THEN STALLS ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
AND SAGS BACK SOUTH ACROSS ILLINOIS ON FRIDAY. THE ECMWF HAS
PRECIPITATION LINGERING INTO FRIDAY...WHILE THE FRONT IS FARTHER
SOUTH ON THE GFS WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

EXPECT CONVECTION TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT INTO AT LEAST
SATURDAY MORNING AS MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND SURFACE LOW MOVE
INTO WI. WITH ENOUGH CLEARING IN THE LOW CLOUD COVER...ADDITIONAL
TSRA MAY DEVELOP WITH SURFACE FEATURES AND APPROACH OF SECONDARY
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE. MODELS SUGGEST STRATUS POTENTIAL LATER
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH MOISTURE POOLING IN VICINITY OF LOW
LEVEL BOUNDARIES. EXPECT SOME MIXING OF THIS AS THE DAY WEARS ON.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TONIGHT/SATURDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...COLLAR
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HENTZ




000
FXUS63 KMKX 292019
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
319 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...

.TONIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
VERY MOIST FLOW IN PLACE AHEAD OF MID LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM
THE PLAINS. ON WATER VAPOR SEEING SOME MOISTURE FLOWING NORTHWARD INTO
THIS SYSTEM FROM THE REMNANTS OF MARIE IN THE GULF COAST VCNTY SE TX.
AIRMASS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE ACROSS SRN WI WITH ML CAPE VALUES
AROUND 1500 J/KG. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE 1.8 TO 2.0 WITH SOME
BORDERLINE SHEAR PARAMETERS...THOUGH BEST SHEAR IS A BIT NORTHWEST
OF THE CWA. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NOT SUPPORTIVE OF HAIL THOUGH
DOWNDRAFT CAPE PUSHING 1000 J/KG. EXPECTING CONVECTION TO INCREASE
INTO THIS EVENING WITHIN DCVA ZONE OF ADVANCING TROUGH AXIS. WILL
BOOST POPS FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE BETTER DYNAMICS APPROACH AND
MOVE INTO SRN WI. MODELS HAVE HIGHEST QPF ACROSS WRN WI THROUGH 6Z
AND THEN WEAKEN CONVECTION A BIT THROUGH 12Z AS AIRMASS STABILIZES
SOMEWHAT. STILL EXPECTING MAIN THREAT TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH
TALL SKINNY CAPE...THE HIGH PW/S AND SLOW MBE VELOCITIES. APPEARS
URBAN/SMALL STREAM FLOODING THOUGH ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL
EXISTS ESP IN NW CWA WHERE DYNAMICS AND BETTER INSTABILITY LIKELY TO
COINCIDE AND CLOSER TO PROGGD QPF MAX.

.SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
WEAK SURFACE LOW SHIFTS NORTHEAST OF WI. SRN WI WILL BE SITUATED IN
LOW LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. FIRST VORT PASSES EARLY WITH A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE
COMING IN DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA IN THE
AFTERNOON. ANY HEATING WITH BREAKS WILL ALLOW AIRMASS TO DESTABILIZE
ENOUGH TO KICK OFF ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WITH SHORTWAVE AND LOW LEVEL
FEATURES.

.SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH

A SECONDARY WEAKER EXITS SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN SATURDAY EVENING.

UPPER DIVERGENCE ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN IS MAINLY NEUTRAL.
THE 700 MB RH INCREASES OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE MID LEVEL DEW POINTS RISE. THE NAM/GFS AND ECMWF
ARE ALL DRY.

.SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH

THE GFS AND ECMWF TAKES A RATHER STRONG SHORTWAVE ACROSS
WISCONSIN DURING THIS PERIOD. THE GFS/ECMWF AND DGEX BRING A BAND
OF MODERATE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN
LATER SUNDAY NIGHT...AND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY MORNING.
THE LOCAL SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETER IS AROUND 70 TO 75
PCT...DESPITE THE LATE NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING TIMING. HOWEVER THE
NSHARP FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE LOW OR ONLY MARGINAL SEVERE
POTENTIAL.

.LONG TERM...

.MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH

THE GFS AND ECMWF TAKES A SECOND WEAK SHORTWAVE ACROSS WISCONSIN
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. ONLY THE ECMWF HAS SOME SCATTERED LIGHT
PRECIPITATION.

.WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH

THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE A ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE U.S./CANADIAN
BORDER AREA AS ANOTHER TROUGH DIGS A LITTLE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
U.S. WITH THE UPPER FLOW BECOMING A LITTLE MORE WEST/SOUTHWESTTHURSDAY.
THE MODELS TAKE A WEAK SHORTWAVE OR POSSIBLY JUST CONVECTIVE
FEEDBACK IN THE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS WISCONSIN FRIDAY.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY WITH A
WARM FRONT AND PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
PRECIPITATION...THE FRONT THEN STALLS ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
AND SAGS BACK SOUTH ACROSS ILLINOIS ON FRIDAY. THE ECMWF HAS
PRECIPITATION LINGERING INTO FRIDAY...WHILE THE FRONT IS FARTHER
SOUTH ON THE GFS WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

EXPECT CONVECTION TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT INTO AT LEAST
SATURDAY MORNING AS MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND SURFACE LOW MOVE
INTO WI. WITH ENOUGH CLEARING IN THE LOW CLOUD COVER...ADDITIONAL
TSRA MAY DEVELOP WITH SURFACE FEATURES AND APPROACH OF SECONDARY
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE. MODELS SUGGEST STRATUS POTENTIAL LATER
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH MOISTURE POOLING IN VICINITY OF LOW
LEVEL BOUNDARIES. EXPECT SOME MIXING OF THIS AS THE DAY WEARS ON.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TONIGHT/SATURDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...COLLAR
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HENTZ





000
FXUS63 KMKX 291522
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1022 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.UPDATE...BOOSTED POPS EARLIER IN THE SE TO ACCOUNT FOR CORRIDOR
OF SHRA/TSRA WRAPPING NE ON PERIPHERY OF SE US UPPER RIDGE. ALSO
LOWERED POPS IN THE WRN CWA WHERE MORE STABLE AIRMASS RESIDES WITH
LINGERING STRATUS. APPEARS UPPER DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED PLAINS MID
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL HOLD OFF ON IMPACTING CWA UNTIL TONIGHT. SO
LEANING MORE TOWARDS LATEST HRRR VERSUS THE MORE AGGRESSIVE 00Z
RUNS OF ARW AND NMM. SURFACE WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED NORTH OUT OF
CWA. WITH SOUTH WINDS AS FAR NORTH AS KSBM.

PC

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...CORRIDOR OF ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION WRAPPING
INTO SE WI WILL POTENTIALLY AFFECT THE 3 EASTERN TAF SITES THIS
AFTN. MEANWHILE KMSN IS NEAR EASTERN EDGE OF MVFR STRATUS FIELD.
EXPECT THIS TO SCATTER A BIT AND LIFT A BIT BUT LIKELY REMAIN AT
MVFR LEVELS. EXPECT CONVECTION TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT
INTO AT LEAST SATURDAY MORNING AS MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND
SURFACE LOW MOVE INTO WI.

PC

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 518 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

INFLUENCE OF DRY SOUTHEAST FLOW AROUND WESTERN FLANK OF DEPARTING
HIGH PRESSURE EVIDENT IN TIGHT SURFACE DEW POINT GRADIENT THAT
REMAINS ALONG IL/WI BORDER AND THE MS RIVER VALLEY.

SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL/NE WI IN REGION OF 850 MB FRONTOGENETIC
RESPONSE TO 20-30 KT WINDS ACROSS EAST-WEST 850 MB BAROCLINIC ZONE
BISECTING THE STATE.

MCV-DRIVEN POCKET OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHEAST IOWA IS
WEAKENING AS IT LIFTS NE TOWARD SW WI AND INTO THE DRIER...MORE
STABLE AIR...WITH THE MCV SHEARING OUT/ WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INTO
THE MEAN RIDGE POSITION. HOWEVER MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO STATE ON 30
KT 850 MB WINDS ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL FORCING FOR ASCENT FROM UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE/DIVERGENCE WILL BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...WITH
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHEAST. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER
ARE POSSIBLE.

MODELS INDICATE A BREAK IN THE PCPN LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. UPPER RIDGING SLOWLY MOVING EAST WITH APPROACHING TROUGH
OMEGA INCREASES AS LLJ STRENGTHENS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS MAIN 500 MB TROUGH MOVES INTO WRN WI BY 12Z SAT.

NORTHWEST HALF OF FORECAST AREA IN FAVORABLE AREA FOR HEAVY RAIN
TONIGHT AS CAPE IS TALL AND SKINNY WITH CORFIDI VECTORS HOVERING
AROUND 10KTS...WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES RISING FROM 1.6 TO 2 INCHES.
WPC HAS LOCATIONS NORTHWEST OF A PORT WASHINGTON...FORT ATKINSON TO
MONROE LINE ARE IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR RAINFALL TO EXCEED FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE.

HOWEVER...WITH PREVIOUS 24 HOURS MUCH DRIER THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST
AND HIGHEST WPC-BASED QPF TOTALS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING TO THE
NORTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH IN-CWA TOTALS BELOW THE
1 TO 6-HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE BETWEEN 2 AND 3 INCHES...WILL
KEEP THE ESF STATEMENT GOING FOR LOCALIZED URBAN/SMALL STREAM
FLOODING POTENTIAL BUT NO FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.

SPC HAS A 5 PCT CHANCE FOR WIND GUSTS WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES PRODUCING AN INVERTED V DRY ADIABATIC PROFILE UP TO 4K TO 5K
FT ON WESTERN CWA FORECAST SOUNDINGS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING IF FORECAST CAPE VALUES CAN BE REALIZED.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AXIS WILL BE POSITIONED JUST TO THE WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE LIKELY
AHEAD OF THESE DURING SATURDAY MORNING...WITH A CHANCE CONTINUING
INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH AND THE FRONT
STALLS NEAR THE WI/IL BORDER.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...BUT KEPT THE FORECAST DRY DUE TO MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT.
SUNDAY THEN LOOKS LIKE A PLEASANT DAY IN BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY SHOULD BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL...RISING
TO A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR SUNDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE LIKELY IN THE WEST BY DAYBREAK MONDAY
MORNING AND THEN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. SOME STRONGER STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
MONDAY...BUT THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT. IT
LOOKS LIKE A DECENT AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY TO GO ALONG WITH AROUND
40 KNOTS OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR. MODELS ARE HINTING AT THE FRONT
MOVING THROUGH EARLIER IN THE DAY THOUGH...WHICH WOULD LIMIT
THE TIME FOR DAYTIME HEATING AND RESULTANT DESTABILIZATION.

IT LOOKS MAINLY DRY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND HIGHER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY REMAINING SOUTH.

A RETURN OF MOISTURE UNDER SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW MAY BRING
SHOWERS AND STORMS BACK TO THE AREA FOR THURSDAY.

TEMPERATURES FOR THE MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY TIME PERIOD SHOULD
REMAIN NEAR TO A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...MOISTURE ADVECTION IS BRINGING IN SOME MVFR/IFR
CIGS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
WARM FRONT. THESE LOWER CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD CLEAR THE TAF SITES BY
LATE MORNING AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH THEN STALLS OVER CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. SOME CONCERN FOR KMKE...AND POSSIBLY KENW...THAT IF
WINDS ARE MORE SOUTHEAST THAN SOUTH TODAY THAT THE FRONT MAY NOT
CLEAR TO THE NORTH AND WILL LEAVE THOSE SITES WITH LESS THAN VFR
CONDITIONS THE ENTIRE DAY.

WILL GO WITH THE CONSENSUS OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE AND GO WITH
PREVAILING VFR TODAY...WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH SCATTERED
SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS PASSING THROUGH WITH THE FRONT
THIS MORNING.

LIKELY TO SEE MVFR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SPREAD FROM WEST TO
EAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH LOW PRESSURE PASSING
THROUGH THE REGION. AGAIN WILL GO WITH NO LOWER THAN MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS FOR NOW...THOUGH IFR VSBYS IN HEAVY RAIN
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KMSN. NAM GUIDANCE HINTING AT IFR/LIFR
CIGS AS THE PCPN TAPERS OFF TOWARDS 12Z SATURDAY...BUT CONSENSUS
TRACK OF THE LOW KEEPS ENOUGH GRADIENT AT TAF SITES TO KEEP LOW
LEVELS MIXED WELL ENOUGH TO PREVENT LOW STRATUS AND FOG...BUT IT
WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR WITH THE NEXT ROUND OF MODEL DATA.

MARINE...SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS WILL GUST TO BETWEEN 20 AND 25
KNOTS AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES...BUT NOT FREQUENTLY ENOUGH OR
LONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER SMALL VESSEL OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF MILWAUKEE WHERE THE LONGER FETCH
WILL BUILD HIGHER WAVES.

BEACHES...THERE IS A MODERATE SWIM RISK AT THE LAKE MICHIGAN
BEACHES FROM SHEBOYGAN TO KENOSHA THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
EVENING WHERE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS INCREASING TO 10 TO 20
KNOTS WILL BUILD HIGH WAVES AND RESULT IN STRONG CURRENTS ALONG
THE SHORE.

RACINE COUNTY IS LISTED AS HAVING A LOW RISK IN THE SURF ZONE
FORECAST AS SOME SHELTERING DUE TO SHORELINE TOPOGRAPHY RESULTED
IN SLIGHTLY LOWER AVERAGE WAVE HEIGHTS...BUT SWIMMERS SHOULD STILL
BE ALERT FOR STRONG CURRENTS AND HIGHER WAVES AT WINDWARD-FACING
BEACHES.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...REM
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...DDV




000
FXUS63 KMKX 291522
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1022 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.UPDATE...BOOSTED POPS EARLIER IN THE SE TO ACCOUNT FOR CORRIDOR
OF SHRA/TSRA WRAPPING NE ON PERIPHERY OF SE US UPPER RIDGE. ALSO
LOWERED POPS IN THE WRN CWA WHERE MORE STABLE AIRMASS RESIDES WITH
LINGERING STRATUS. APPEARS UPPER DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED PLAINS MID
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL HOLD OFF ON IMPACTING CWA UNTIL TONIGHT. SO
LEANING MORE TOWARDS LATEST HRRR VERSUS THE MORE AGGRESSIVE 00Z
RUNS OF ARW AND NMM. SURFACE WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED NORTH OUT OF
CWA. WITH SOUTH WINDS AS FAR NORTH AS KSBM.

PC

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...CORRIDOR OF ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION WRAPPING
INTO SE WI WILL POTENTIALLY AFFECT THE 3 EASTERN TAF SITES THIS
AFTN. MEANWHILE KMSN IS NEAR EASTERN EDGE OF MVFR STRATUS FIELD.
EXPECT THIS TO SCATTER A BIT AND LIFT A BIT BUT LIKELY REMAIN AT
MVFR LEVELS. EXPECT CONVECTION TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT
INTO AT LEAST SATURDAY MORNING AS MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND
SURFACE LOW MOVE INTO WI.

PC

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 518 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

INFLUENCE OF DRY SOUTHEAST FLOW AROUND WESTERN FLANK OF DEPARTING
HIGH PRESSURE EVIDENT IN TIGHT SURFACE DEW POINT GRADIENT THAT
REMAINS ALONG IL/WI BORDER AND THE MS RIVER VALLEY.

SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL/NE WI IN REGION OF 850 MB FRONTOGENETIC
RESPONSE TO 20-30 KT WINDS ACROSS EAST-WEST 850 MB BAROCLINIC ZONE
BISECTING THE STATE.

MCV-DRIVEN POCKET OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHEAST IOWA IS
WEAKENING AS IT LIFTS NE TOWARD SW WI AND INTO THE DRIER...MORE
STABLE AIR...WITH THE MCV SHEARING OUT/ WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INTO
THE MEAN RIDGE POSITION. HOWEVER MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO STATE ON 30
KT 850 MB WINDS ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL FORCING FOR ASCENT FROM UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE/DIVERGENCE WILL BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...WITH
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHEAST. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER
ARE POSSIBLE.

MODELS INDICATE A BREAK IN THE PCPN LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. UPPER RIDGING SLOWLY MOVING EAST WITH APPROACHING TROUGH
OMEGA INCREASES AS LLJ STRENGTHENS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS MAIN 500 MB TROUGH MOVES INTO WRN WI BY 12Z SAT.

NORTHWEST HALF OF FORECAST AREA IN FAVORABLE AREA FOR HEAVY RAIN
TONIGHT AS CAPE IS TALL AND SKINNY WITH CORFIDI VECTORS HOVERING
AROUND 10KTS...WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES RISING FROM 1.6 TO 2 INCHES.
WPC HAS LOCATIONS NORTHWEST OF A PORT WASHINGTON...FORT ATKINSON TO
MONROE LINE ARE IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR RAINFALL TO EXCEED FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE.

HOWEVER...WITH PREVIOUS 24 HOURS MUCH DRIER THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST
AND HIGHEST WPC-BASED QPF TOTALS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING TO THE
NORTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH IN-CWA TOTALS BELOW THE
1 TO 6-HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE BETWEEN 2 AND 3 INCHES...WILL
KEEP THE ESF STATEMENT GOING FOR LOCALIZED URBAN/SMALL STREAM
FLOODING POTENTIAL BUT NO FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.

SPC HAS A 5 PCT CHANCE FOR WIND GUSTS WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES PRODUCING AN INVERTED V DRY ADIABATIC PROFILE UP TO 4K TO 5K
FT ON WESTERN CWA FORECAST SOUNDINGS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING IF FORECAST CAPE VALUES CAN BE REALIZED.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AXIS WILL BE POSITIONED JUST TO THE WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE LIKELY
AHEAD OF THESE DURING SATURDAY MORNING...WITH A CHANCE CONTINUING
INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH AND THE FRONT
STALLS NEAR THE WI/IL BORDER.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...BUT KEPT THE FORECAST DRY DUE TO MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT.
SUNDAY THEN LOOKS LIKE A PLEASANT DAY IN BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY SHOULD BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL...RISING
TO A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR SUNDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE LIKELY IN THE WEST BY DAYBREAK MONDAY
MORNING AND THEN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. SOME STRONGER STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
MONDAY...BUT THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT. IT
LOOKS LIKE A DECENT AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY TO GO ALONG WITH AROUND
40 KNOTS OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR. MODELS ARE HINTING AT THE FRONT
MOVING THROUGH EARLIER IN THE DAY THOUGH...WHICH WOULD LIMIT
THE TIME FOR DAYTIME HEATING AND RESULTANT DESTABILIZATION.

IT LOOKS MAINLY DRY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND HIGHER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY REMAINING SOUTH.

A RETURN OF MOISTURE UNDER SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW MAY BRING
SHOWERS AND STORMS BACK TO THE AREA FOR THURSDAY.

TEMPERATURES FOR THE MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY TIME PERIOD SHOULD
REMAIN NEAR TO A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...MOISTURE ADVECTION IS BRINGING IN SOME MVFR/IFR
CIGS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
WARM FRONT. THESE LOWER CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD CLEAR THE TAF SITES BY
LATE MORNING AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH THEN STALLS OVER CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. SOME CONCERN FOR KMKE...AND POSSIBLY KENW...THAT IF
WINDS ARE MORE SOUTHEAST THAN SOUTH TODAY THAT THE FRONT MAY NOT
CLEAR TO THE NORTH AND WILL LEAVE THOSE SITES WITH LESS THAN VFR
CONDITIONS THE ENTIRE DAY.

WILL GO WITH THE CONSENSUS OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE AND GO WITH
PREVAILING VFR TODAY...WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH SCATTERED
SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS PASSING THROUGH WITH THE FRONT
THIS MORNING.

LIKELY TO SEE MVFR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SPREAD FROM WEST TO
EAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH LOW PRESSURE PASSING
THROUGH THE REGION. AGAIN WILL GO WITH NO LOWER THAN MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS FOR NOW...THOUGH IFR VSBYS IN HEAVY RAIN
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KMSN. NAM GUIDANCE HINTING AT IFR/LIFR
CIGS AS THE PCPN TAPERS OFF TOWARDS 12Z SATURDAY...BUT CONSENSUS
TRACK OF THE LOW KEEPS ENOUGH GRADIENT AT TAF SITES TO KEEP LOW
LEVELS MIXED WELL ENOUGH TO PREVENT LOW STRATUS AND FOG...BUT IT
WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR WITH THE NEXT ROUND OF MODEL DATA.

MARINE...SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS WILL GUST TO BETWEEN 20 AND 25
KNOTS AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES...BUT NOT FREQUENTLY ENOUGH OR
LONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER SMALL VESSEL OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF MILWAUKEE WHERE THE LONGER FETCH
WILL BUILD HIGHER WAVES.

BEACHES...THERE IS A MODERATE SWIM RISK AT THE LAKE MICHIGAN
BEACHES FROM SHEBOYGAN TO KENOSHA THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
EVENING WHERE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS INCREASING TO 10 TO 20
KNOTS WILL BUILD HIGH WAVES AND RESULT IN STRONG CURRENTS ALONG
THE SHORE.

RACINE COUNTY IS LISTED AS HAVING A LOW RISK IN THE SURF ZONE
FORECAST AS SOME SHELTERING DUE TO SHORELINE TOPOGRAPHY RESULTED
IN SLIGHTLY LOWER AVERAGE WAVE HEIGHTS...BUT SWIMMERS SHOULD STILL
BE ALERT FOR STRONG CURRENTS AND HIGHER WAVES AT WINDWARD-FACING
BEACHES.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...REM
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...DDV





000
FXUS63 KMKX 291018 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
518 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

INFLUENCE OF DRY SOUTHEAST FLOW AROUND WESTERN FLANK OF DEPARTING
HIGH PRESSURE EVIDENT IN TIGHT SURFACE DEW POINT GRADIENT THAT
REMAINS ALONG IL/WI BORDER AND THE MS RIVER VALLEY.

SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL/NE WI IN REGION OF 850 MB FRONTOGENETIC
RESPONSE TO 20-30 KT WINDS ACROSS EAST-WEST 850 MB BAROCLINIC ZONE
BISECTING THE STATE.

MCV-DRIVEN POCKET OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHEAST IOWA IS
WEAKENING AS IT LIFTS NE TOWARD SW WI AND INTO THE DRIER...MORE
STABLE AIR...WITH THE MCV SHEARING OUT/ WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INTO
THE MEAN RIDGE POSITION. HOWEVER MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO STATE ON 30
KT 850 MB WINDS ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL FORCING FOR ASCENT FROM UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE/DIVERGENCE WILL BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...WITH
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHEAST. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER
ARE POSSIBLE.

MODELS INDICATE A BREAK IN THE PCPN LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. UPPER RIDGING SLOWLY MOVING EAST WITH APPROACHING TROUGH
OMEGA INCREASES AS LLJ STRENGTHENS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS MAIN 500 MB TROUGH MOVES INTO WRN WI BY 12Z SAT.

NORTHWEST HALF OF FORECAST AREA IN FAVORABLE AREA FOR HEAVY RAIN
TONIGHT AS CAPE IS TALL AND SKINNY WITH CORFIDI VECTORS HOVERING
AROUND 10KTS...WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES RISING FROM 1.6 TO 2 INCHES.
WPC HAS LOCATIONS NORTHWEST OF A PORT WASHINGTON...FORT ATKINSON TO
MONROE LINE ARE IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR RAINFALL TO EXCEED FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE.

HOWEVER...WITH PREVIOUS 24 HOURS MUCH DRIER THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST
AND HIGHEST WPC-BASED QPF TOTALS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING TO THE
NORTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH IN-CWA TOTALS BELOW THE
1 TO 6-HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE BETWEEN 2 AND 3 INCHES...WILL
KEEP THE ESF STATEMENT GOING FOR LOCALIZED URBAN/SMALL STREAM
FLOODING POTENTIAL BUT NO FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.

SPC HAS A 5 PCT CHANCE FOR WIND GUSTS WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES PRODUCING AN INVERTED V DRY ADIABATIC PROFILE UP TO 4K TO 5K
FT ON WESTERN CWA FORECAST SOUNDINGS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING IF FORECAST CAPE VALUES CAN BE REALIZED.

.SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AXIS WILL BE POSITIONED JUST TO THE WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE LIKELY
AHEAD OF THESE DURING SATURDAY MORNING...WITH A CHANCE CONTINUING
INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH AND THE FRONT
STALLS NEAR THE WI/IL BORDER.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...BUT KEPT THE FORECAST DRY DUE TO MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT.
SUNDAY THEN LOOKS LIKE A PLEASANT DAY IN BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY SHOULD BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL...RISING
TO A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR SUNDAY.

.MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE LIKELY IN THE WEST BY DAYBREAK MONDAY
MORNING AND THEN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. SOME STRONGER STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
MONDAY...BUT THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT. IT
LOOKS LIKE A DECENT AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY TO GO ALONG WITH AROUND
40 KNOTS OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR. MODELS ARE HINTING AT THE FRONT
MOVING THROUGH EARLIER IN THE DAY THOUGH...WHICH WOULD LIMIT
THE TIME FOR DAYTIME HEATING AND RESULTANT DESTABILIZATION.

IT LOOKS MAINLY DRY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND HIGHER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY REMAINING SOUTH.

A RETURN OF MOISTURE UNDER SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW MAY BRING
SHOWERS AND STORMS BACK TO THE AREA FOR THURSDAY.

TEMPERATURES FOR THE MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY TIME PERIOD SHOULD
REMAIN NEAR TO A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...MOISTURE ADVECTION IS BRINGING IN SOME MVFR/IFR
CIGS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
WARM FRONT. THESE LOWER CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD CLEAR THE TAF SITES BY
LATE MORNING AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH THEN STALLS OVER CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. SOME CONCERN FOR KMKE...AND POSSIBLY KENW...THAT IF
WINDS ARE MORE SOUTHEAST THAN SOUTH TODAY THAT THE FRONT MAY NOT
CLEAR TO THE NORTH AND WILL LEAVE THOSE SITES WITH LESS THAN VFR
CONDITIONS THE ENTIRE DAY.

WILL GO WITH THE CONSENSUS OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE AND GO WITH
PREVAILING VFR TODAY...WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH SCATTERED
SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS PASSING THROUGH WITH THE FRONT
THIS MORNING.

LIKELY TO SEE MVFR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SPREAD FROM WEST TO
EAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH LOW PRESSURE PASSING
THROUGH THE REGION. AGAIN WILL GO WITH NO LOWER THAN MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS FOR NOW...THOUGH IFR VSBYS IN HEAVY RAIN
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KMSN. NAM GUIDANCE HINTING AT IFR/LIFR
CIGS AS THE PCPN TAPERS OFF TOWARDS 12Z SATURDAY...BUT CONSENSUS
TRACK OF THE LOW KEEPS ENOUGH GRADIENT AT TAF SITES TO KEEP LOW
LEVELS MIXED WELL ENOUGH TO PREVENT LOW STRATUS AND FOG...BUT IT
WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR WITH THE NEXT ROUND OF MODEL DATA.

.MARINE...SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS WILL GUST TO BETWEEN 20 AND 25
KNOTS AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES...BUT NOT FREQUENTLY ENOUGH OR
LONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER SMALL VESSEL OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF MILWAUKEE WHERE THE LONGER FETCH
WILL BUILD HIGHER WAVES.

.BEACHES...THERE IS A MODERATE SWIM RISK AT THE LAKE MICHIGAN
BEACHES FROM SHEBOYGAN TO KENOSHA THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
EVENING WHERE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS INCREASING TO 10 TO 20
KNOTS WILL BUILD HIGH WAVES AND RESULT IN STRONG CURRENTS ALONG
THE SHORE.

RACINE COUNTY IS LISTED AS HAVING A LOW RISK IN THE SURF ZONE
FORECAST AS SOME SHELTERING DUE TO SHORELINE TOPOGRAPHY RESULTED
IN SLIGHTLY LOWER AVERAGE WAVE HEIGHTS...BUT SWIMMERS SHOULD STILL
BE ALERT FOR STRONG CURRENTS AND HIGHER WAVES AT WINDWARD-FACING
BEACHES.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...REM
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...DDV




000
FXUS63 KMKX 291018 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
518 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

INFLUENCE OF DRY SOUTHEAST FLOW AROUND WESTERN FLANK OF DEPARTING
HIGH PRESSURE EVIDENT IN TIGHT SURFACE DEW POINT GRADIENT THAT
REMAINS ALONG IL/WI BORDER AND THE MS RIVER VALLEY.

SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL/NE WI IN REGION OF 850 MB FRONTOGENETIC
RESPONSE TO 20-30 KT WINDS ACROSS EAST-WEST 850 MB BAROCLINIC ZONE
BISECTING THE STATE.

MCV-DRIVEN POCKET OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHEAST IOWA IS
WEAKENING AS IT LIFTS NE TOWARD SW WI AND INTO THE DRIER...MORE
STABLE AIR...WITH THE MCV SHEARING OUT/ WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INTO
THE MEAN RIDGE POSITION. HOWEVER MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO STATE ON 30
KT 850 MB WINDS ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL FORCING FOR ASCENT FROM UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE/DIVERGENCE WILL BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...WITH
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHEAST. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER
ARE POSSIBLE.

MODELS INDICATE A BREAK IN THE PCPN LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. UPPER RIDGING SLOWLY MOVING EAST WITH APPROACHING TROUGH
OMEGA INCREASES AS LLJ STRENGTHENS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS MAIN 500 MB TROUGH MOVES INTO WRN WI BY 12Z SAT.

NORTHWEST HALF OF FORECAST AREA IN FAVORABLE AREA FOR HEAVY RAIN
TONIGHT AS CAPE IS TALL AND SKINNY WITH CORFIDI VECTORS HOVERING
AROUND 10KTS...WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES RISING FROM 1.6 TO 2 INCHES.
WPC HAS LOCATIONS NORTHWEST OF A PORT WASHINGTON...FORT ATKINSON TO
MONROE LINE ARE IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR RAINFALL TO EXCEED FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE.

HOWEVER...WITH PREVIOUS 24 HOURS MUCH DRIER THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST
AND HIGHEST WPC-BASED QPF TOTALS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING TO THE
NORTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH IN-CWA TOTALS BELOW THE
1 TO 6-HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE BETWEEN 2 AND 3 INCHES...WILL
KEEP THE ESF STATEMENT GOING FOR LOCALIZED URBAN/SMALL STREAM
FLOODING POTENTIAL BUT NO FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.

SPC HAS A 5 PCT CHANCE FOR WIND GUSTS WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES PRODUCING AN INVERTED V DRY ADIABATIC PROFILE UP TO 4K TO 5K
FT ON WESTERN CWA FORECAST SOUNDINGS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING IF FORECAST CAPE VALUES CAN BE REALIZED.

.SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AXIS WILL BE POSITIONED JUST TO THE WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE LIKELY
AHEAD OF THESE DURING SATURDAY MORNING...WITH A CHANCE CONTINUING
INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH AND THE FRONT
STALLS NEAR THE WI/IL BORDER.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...BUT KEPT THE FORECAST DRY DUE TO MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT.
SUNDAY THEN LOOKS LIKE A PLEASANT DAY IN BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY SHOULD BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL...RISING
TO A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR SUNDAY.

.MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE LIKELY IN THE WEST BY DAYBREAK MONDAY
MORNING AND THEN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. SOME STRONGER STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
MONDAY...BUT THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT. IT
LOOKS LIKE A DECENT AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY TO GO ALONG WITH AROUND
40 KNOTS OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR. MODELS ARE HINTING AT THE FRONT
MOVING THROUGH EARLIER IN THE DAY THOUGH...WHICH WOULD LIMIT
THE TIME FOR DAYTIME HEATING AND RESULTANT DESTABILIZATION.

IT LOOKS MAINLY DRY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND HIGHER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY REMAINING SOUTH.

A RETURN OF MOISTURE UNDER SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW MAY BRING
SHOWERS AND STORMS BACK TO THE AREA FOR THURSDAY.

TEMPERATURES FOR THE MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY TIME PERIOD SHOULD
REMAIN NEAR TO A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...MOISTURE ADVECTION IS BRINGING IN SOME MVFR/IFR
CIGS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
WARM FRONT. THESE LOWER CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD CLEAR THE TAF SITES BY
LATE MORNING AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH THEN STALLS OVER CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. SOME CONCERN FOR KMKE...AND POSSIBLY KENW...THAT IF
WINDS ARE MORE SOUTHEAST THAN SOUTH TODAY THAT THE FRONT MAY NOT
CLEAR TO THE NORTH AND WILL LEAVE THOSE SITES WITH LESS THAN VFR
CONDITIONS THE ENTIRE DAY.

WILL GO WITH THE CONSENSUS OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE AND GO WITH
PREVAILING VFR TODAY...WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH SCATTERED
SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS PASSING THROUGH WITH THE FRONT
THIS MORNING.

LIKELY TO SEE MVFR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SPREAD FROM WEST TO
EAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH LOW PRESSURE PASSING
THROUGH THE REGION. AGAIN WILL GO WITH NO LOWER THAN MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS FOR NOW...THOUGH IFR VSBYS IN HEAVY RAIN
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KMSN. NAM GUIDANCE HINTING AT IFR/LIFR
CIGS AS THE PCPN TAPERS OFF TOWARDS 12Z SATURDAY...BUT CONSENSUS
TRACK OF THE LOW KEEPS ENOUGH GRADIENT AT TAF SITES TO KEEP LOW
LEVELS MIXED WELL ENOUGH TO PREVENT LOW STRATUS AND FOG...BUT IT
WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR WITH THE NEXT ROUND OF MODEL DATA.

.MARINE...SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS WILL GUST TO BETWEEN 20 AND 25
KNOTS AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES...BUT NOT FREQUENTLY ENOUGH OR
LONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER SMALL VESSEL OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF MILWAUKEE WHERE THE LONGER FETCH
WILL BUILD HIGHER WAVES.

.BEACHES...THERE IS A MODERATE SWIM RISK AT THE LAKE MICHIGAN
BEACHES FROM SHEBOYGAN TO KENOSHA THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
EVENING WHERE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS INCREASING TO 10 TO 20
KNOTS WILL BUILD HIGH WAVES AND RESULT IN STRONG CURRENTS ALONG
THE SHORE.

RACINE COUNTY IS LISTED AS HAVING A LOW RISK IN THE SURF ZONE
FORECAST AS SOME SHELTERING DUE TO SHORELINE TOPOGRAPHY RESULTED
IN SLIGHTLY LOWER AVERAGE WAVE HEIGHTS...BUT SWIMMERS SHOULD STILL
BE ALERT FOR STRONG CURRENTS AND HIGHER WAVES AT WINDWARD-FACING
BEACHES.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...REM
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...DDV





000
FXUS63 KMKX 290841
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
341 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

INFLUENCE OF DRY SOUTHEAST FLOW AROUND WESTERN FLANK OF DEPARTING
HIGH PRESSURE EVIDENT IN TIGHT SURFACE DEW POINT GRADIENT THAT
REMAINS ALONG IL/WI BORDER AND THE MS RIVER VALLEY.

SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL/NE WI IN REGION OF 850 MB FRONTOGENETIC
RESPONSE TO 20-30 KT WINDS ACROSS EAST-WEST 850 MB BAROCLINIC ZONE
BISECTING THE STATE.

MCV-DRIVEN POCKET OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHEAST IOWA IS
WEAKENING AS IT LIFTS NE TOWARD SW WI AND INTO THE DRIER...MORE
STABLE AIR...WITH THE MCV SHEARING OUT/ WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INTO
THE MEAN RIDGE POSITION. HOWEVER MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO STATE ON 30
KT 850 MB WINDS ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL FORCING FOR ASCENT FROM UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE/DIVERGENCE WILL BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...WITH
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHEAST. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER
ARE POSSIBLE.

MODELS INDICATE A BREAK IN THE PCPN LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. UPPER RIDGING SLOWLY MOVING EAST WITH APPROACHING TROUGH
OMEGA INCREASES AS LLJ STRENGTHENS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS MAIN 500 MB TROUGH MOVES INTO WRN WI BY 12Z SAT.

NORTHWEST HALF OF FORECAST AREA IN FAVORABLE AREA FOR HEAVY RAIN
TONIGHT AS CAPE IS TALL AND SKINNY WITH CORFIDI VECTORS HOVERING
AROUND 10KTS...WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES RISING FROM 1.6 TO 2 INCHES.
WPC HAS LOCATIONS NORTHWEST OF A PORT WASHINGTON...FORT ATKINSON TO
MONROE LINE ARE IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR RAINFALL TO EXCEED FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE.

HOWEVER...WITH PREVIOUS 24 HOURS MUCH DRIER THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST
AND HIGHEST WPC-BASED QPF TOTALS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING TO THE
NORTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH IN-CWA TOTALS BELOW THE
1 TO 6-HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE BETWEEN 2 AND 3 INCHES...WILL
KEEP THE ESF STATEMENT GOING FOR LOCALIZED URBAN/SMALL STREAM
FLOODING POTENTIAL BUT NO FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.

SPC HAS A 5 PCT CHANCE FOR WIND GUSTS WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES PRODUCING AN INVERTED V DRY ADIABATIC PROFILE UP TO 4K TO 5K
FT ON WESTERN CWA FORECAST SOUNDINGS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING IF FORECAST CAPE VALUES CAN BE REALIZED.

.SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AXIS WILL BE POSITIONED JUST TO THE WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE LIKELY
AHEAD OF THESE DURING SATURDAY MORNING...WITH A CHANCE CONTINUING
INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH AND THE FRONT
STALLS NEAR THE WI/IL BORDER.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...BUT KEPT THE FORECAST DRY DUE TO MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT.
SUNDAY THEN LOOKS LIKE A PLEASANT DAY IN BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY SHOULD BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL...RISING
TO A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR SUNDAY.

.MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE LIKELY IN THE WEST BY DAYBREAK MONDAY
MORNING AND THEN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. SOME STRONGER STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
MONDAY...BUT THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT. IT
LOOKS LIKE A DECENT AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY TO GO ALONG WITH AROUND
40 KNOTS OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR. MODELS ARE HINTING AT THE FRONT
MOVING THROUGH EARLIER IN THE DAY THOUGH...WHICH WOULD LIMIT
THE TIME FOR DAYTIME HEATING AND RESULTANT DESTABILIZATION.

IT LOOKS MAINLY DRY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND HIGHER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY REMAINING SOUTH.

A RETURN OF MOISTURE UNDER SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW MAY BRING
SHOWERS AND STORMS BACK TO THE AREA FOR THURSDAY.

TEMPERATURES FOR THE MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY TIME PERIOD SHOULD
REMAIN NEAR TO A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...MARINE...BEACHES...THESE SECTIONS WILL BE
ADDED SHORTLY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...REM
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...DDV





000
FXUS63 KMKX 290841
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
341 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

INFLUENCE OF DRY SOUTHEAST FLOW AROUND WESTERN FLANK OF DEPARTING
HIGH PRESSURE EVIDENT IN TIGHT SURFACE DEW POINT GRADIENT THAT
REMAINS ALONG IL/WI BORDER AND THE MS RIVER VALLEY.

SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL/NE WI IN REGION OF 850 MB FRONTOGENETIC
RESPONSE TO 20-30 KT WINDS ACROSS EAST-WEST 850 MB BAROCLINIC ZONE
BISECTING THE STATE.

MCV-DRIVEN POCKET OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHEAST IOWA IS
WEAKENING AS IT LIFTS NE TOWARD SW WI AND INTO THE DRIER...MORE
STABLE AIR...WITH THE MCV SHEARING OUT/ WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INTO
THE MEAN RIDGE POSITION. HOWEVER MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO STATE ON 30
KT 850 MB WINDS ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL FORCING FOR ASCENT FROM UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE/DIVERGENCE WILL BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...WITH
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHEAST. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER
ARE POSSIBLE.

MODELS INDICATE A BREAK IN THE PCPN LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. UPPER RIDGING SLOWLY MOVING EAST WITH APPROACHING TROUGH
OMEGA INCREASES AS LLJ STRENGTHENS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS MAIN 500 MB TROUGH MOVES INTO WRN WI BY 12Z SAT.

NORTHWEST HALF OF FORECAST AREA IN FAVORABLE AREA FOR HEAVY RAIN
TONIGHT AS CAPE IS TALL AND SKINNY WITH CORFIDI VECTORS HOVERING
AROUND 10KTS...WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES RISING FROM 1.6 TO 2 INCHES.
WPC HAS LOCATIONS NORTHWEST OF A PORT WASHINGTON...FORT ATKINSON TO
MONROE LINE ARE IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR RAINFALL TO EXCEED FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE.

HOWEVER...WITH PREVIOUS 24 HOURS MUCH DRIER THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST
AND HIGHEST WPC-BASED QPF TOTALS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING TO THE
NORTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH IN-CWA TOTALS BELOW THE
1 TO 6-HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE BETWEEN 2 AND 3 INCHES...WILL
KEEP THE ESF STATEMENT GOING FOR LOCALIZED URBAN/SMALL STREAM
FLOODING POTENTIAL BUT NO FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.

SPC HAS A 5 PCT CHANCE FOR WIND GUSTS WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES PRODUCING AN INVERTED V DRY ADIABATIC PROFILE UP TO 4K TO 5K
FT ON WESTERN CWA FORECAST SOUNDINGS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING IF FORECAST CAPE VALUES CAN BE REALIZED.

.SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AXIS WILL BE POSITIONED JUST TO THE WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE LIKELY
AHEAD OF THESE DURING SATURDAY MORNING...WITH A CHANCE CONTINUING
INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH AND THE FRONT
STALLS NEAR THE WI/IL BORDER.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...BUT KEPT THE FORECAST DRY DUE TO MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT.
SUNDAY THEN LOOKS LIKE A PLEASANT DAY IN BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY SHOULD BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL...RISING
TO A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR SUNDAY.

.MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE LIKELY IN THE WEST BY DAYBREAK MONDAY
MORNING AND THEN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. SOME STRONGER STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
MONDAY...BUT THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT. IT
LOOKS LIKE A DECENT AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY TO GO ALONG WITH AROUND
40 KNOTS OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR. MODELS ARE HINTING AT THE FRONT
MOVING THROUGH EARLIER IN THE DAY THOUGH...WHICH WOULD LIMIT
THE TIME FOR DAYTIME HEATING AND RESULTANT DESTABILIZATION.

IT LOOKS MAINLY DRY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND HIGHER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY REMAINING SOUTH.

A RETURN OF MOISTURE UNDER SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW MAY BRING
SHOWERS AND STORMS BACK TO THE AREA FOR THURSDAY.

TEMPERATURES FOR THE MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY TIME PERIOD SHOULD
REMAIN NEAR TO A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...MARINE...BEACHES...THESE SECTIONS WILL BE
ADDED SHORTLY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...REM
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...DDV




000
FXUS63 KMKX 290204
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
904 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.UPDATE...
IT/S BEEN EXCEPTIONALLY QUIET ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THIS
EVENING AND THAT TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT...POSSIBLY UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON. FOR TONIGHT...THE AREA
REMAINS UNDER A RATHER PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. THERE
WAS SOME WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH IT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT FOR THE MOST PART THE RIDGE IS INTACT. THE SHOWERS
NORTH OF MILWAUKEE AND MADISON HAVE BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH SOME
850MB WARM AIR ADVECTION THAT WILL ONLY LIFT FARTHER NORTHEAST
WITH TIME. THE HRRR AND THE 18Z NAM TRY TO FIRE SOMETHING UP OVER
NW IL/NE IA AND LIFT IT NORTH INTO THE AREA. THERE IS CONVECTION
CURRENTLY FIRING OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST IOWA IN A REGION OF
UNINHIBITED DEEP CAPE. THE PROBLEM IS THAT CAPE DROPS OFF TO
NOTHING OVER NORTHEAST IOWA...SO IT WOULD BE A STRUGGLE FOR
ANYTHING TO SURVIVE UP IN OUR MORE UNFAVORABLE AIRMASS. PLUS...OUR
SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW IS KEEPING A DRY FEED OF AIR INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. WILL KEEP POPS CHCY LATER TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE
IS LOW THAT WE WILL SEE ANYTHING.

THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN ON FRIDAY AND THE ATMOSPHERE
DESTABILIZES WITH CAPE BUILDING. THAT SHOULD RESULT IN A ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THAT WOULD HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...

THE CHANCE FOR STORMS WAS TRIMMED SIGNIFICANTLY AT THE 00Z
ISSUANCE GIVEN THE LOW CONFIDENCE THAT ANYTHING WOULD REACH THE
AIRPORT LOCATIONS BEFORE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. FORCING IS WEAK
OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WE/LL HAVE TO WATCH IF ANYTHING
DEVELOPS OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHWEST IL
OVERNIGHT...AS THIS WOULD LIKELY ROLL NORTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE CHANCE FOR STORMS INCREASES FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH BUILDING INSTABILITY AND A VERY MOIST
AIRMASS. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS GENERALLY VFR THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. HOWEVER...THERE IS CONCERN THAT AN AREA OF MVFR CIGS OVER
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN MAY GET INTO MADISON BEFORE IT LIFTS NORTH OF
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THE THREAT FOR THOSE LOWER CLOUDS WOULD BE
BETWEEN 06-12Z FRI. BEYOND THAT...ALL SITES SHOULD STAY VFR. ANY
STORMS THAT DEVELOP LATER IN THE TAF PERIOD COULD ALWAYS BRING
BRIEF LOWER CONDITIONS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014/

SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS CURRENTLY MOVING EAST NORTHEAST INTO THE FAR
WESTERN COUNTIES AND WEAKENING. THIS IS BEING DRIVEN BY REMNANT 500
MB MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX. MESOSCALE MODELS ARE SHOWING THIS
AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING EAST NORTHEAST THROUGH MOST OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...CONTINUING TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
INTO DRIER AIR.

THERE IS A MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS IN NORTHERN
ILLINOIS...WHICH COULD ALSO MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
OR EARLY THIS EVENING. LITTLE TO NO ELEVATED CAPE SEEN ON AREA
FORECAST SOUNDINGS...SO PULLED MENTION OF THUNDER LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE HIGHEST POPS WEST WITH LOWER POPS IN THE EAST UNTIL
00Z FRIDAY.

MAIN 850 MB LOW LEVEL JET NOSE WILL FOCUS TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH
OF THE AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE
STRONGEST UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THAT
AREA. SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH
THIS OCCURRING.

STILL SHOULD SEE SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS WITHIN FOCUSED 850 MB WARM
AIR ADVECTION ZONE AND PASSING WARM FRONT TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. HIGHEST POPS ARE IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...CLOSEST
TO BEST UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION. LEFT CHANCE POPS IN THE SOUTH. AREA
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW ELEVATED CAPE SLOWLY INCREASING THROUGH
THE NIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN IN THE 1.80 TO 1.90 INCH
RANGE...BUT CORFIDI VECTORS REMAIN ON THE HIGH SIDE. SO...JUST
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN IS ANTICIPATED.

MODELS SHOWING AREA GETTING INTO WARM SECTOR AIR ON FRIDAY...AS WARM
FRONT MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA. AGAIN...BEST UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION
WILL BE FOCUSED NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA...SO THERE MAY BE A LULL
IN THE PRECIPITATION. LEFT CHANCE POPS GOING ON FRIDAY FOR NOW.

STILL...NO CAPPING WITH 1500 TO 2000 PLUS J/KG MEAN LAYER CAPE AND
WEAK TO MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUGGEST SOME STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE
IF THEY CAN GET GOING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1.50 TO 1.75
INCHES WITH WEAK CORFIDI VECTORS...SO LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL IS
AGAIN A POSSIBILITY. SOUTH WINDS AND SOME SUN IN THE AFTERNOON
SHOULD BRING HIGHS INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH

THE MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PUSHES INTO WISCONSIN. SOMEWHAT OF A
COUPLED JET STRUCTURE FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT THE JET MAX IS RATHER
WEAK AT 50 TO 60 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS MODERATE DURING
THE EVENING TO AROUND MIDNIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING. 700 MB UPWARD
MOTION IS RATHER STRONG AS IT APPROACHES SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN
BUT WEAKENS AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTH. 700 MB RH INCREASES...
BUT IS NOT QUITE SATURATED. THE 850/700 MB SPEED MAX IS ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES...WITH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN IN THE ENTRANCE
REGION. 850 MB DEWPOINTS ARE AROUND 16 CELSIUS DURING THE EARLY
EVENING...BUT THEN DECREASES TO AROUND 11 CELSIUS BY SUNRISE. THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT REACHES SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN FRIDAY NIGHT
AND EXITS THE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY MORNING. EVENING ZERO TO 1 KM
CAPE VALUES AROUND 2000 JOULES/KG DURING THE EARLY EVENING...
DECREASES TO AROUND 600 JOULES/KG OVER THE SOUTHEAST LATE. THE
HIGHER CAPE IS THEN TO THE SOUTH ON SATURDAY WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO WISCONSIN. THE NAM/GFS AND 00Z ECMWF BRING
HEAVY PRECIPITATION INTO SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN FRIDAY
EVENING...WITH DIMINISHING MAINLY MODERATE AMOUNTS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST LATER SATURDAY NIGHT. THE LOCAL SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETER
INCREASES TO AROUND 70 PCT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN FRIDAY
EVENING AND AROUND 70 PCT OVER THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THE NSHARP
FORECAST SOUNDINGS GIVES A SEVERE POTENTIAL SOUTH CENTRAL AND
MARGINAL SEVERE POTENTIAL SOUTHEAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH

THE MAIN SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST BUT A SECONDARY WEAKER SHORTWAVE
MOVES INTO WISCONSIN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING AHEAD
OF THE NEXT STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE PLAINS.

UPPER DIVERGENCE ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN IS WEAK...AS IS THE 700
MB UPWARD MOTION. THE NAM DOES HAVE SCATTERED MAINLY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM...

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH

THE GFS AND ECMWF TAKES A STRONG SHORTWAVE ACROSS WISCONSIN
DURING THIS PERIOD. THE GFS/ECMWF AND DGEX BRING A BAND OF HEAVY
RAIN INTO SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATER SUNDAY NIGHT...AND ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY MORNING. THE GFS IS A LITTLE QUICKER THAN
THE 12Z ECMWF.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH

THE GFS AND ECMWF TAKES A SECOND SHORTWAVE ACROSS WISCONSIN
TUESDAY. THE GFS/ECMWF AND DGEX HAVE JUST LIGHT
PRECIPITATION...MAINLY MORE NORTH TOWARD CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
WISCONSIN.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH

THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE A ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE U.S./CANADIAN
BORDER AREA AS ANOTHER TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST U.S.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY WITH A
WARM FRONT AND PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY ON THE 12Z ECMWF BUT IS DRY ON THE
12Z GFS.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

EXPECT BAND OF SHOWERS TO PUSH EAST NORTHEAST THROUGH MADISON AND
POSSIBLY THE EASTERN TAF SITES BETWEEN 21Z THURSDAY AND 00Z FRIDAY.
MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE. EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL LINGER DURING
THIS TIME.

MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF
TAF SITES TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. STILL SHOULD SEE SOME
SHOWERS AND STORMS AT TIMES...AS WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH THROUGH THE
AREA. FOR NOW...WILL USE VICINITY THUNDER WORDING IN TAFS DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE IN SPECIFIC TIMING. MVFR CEILINGS AND MVFR/IFR
VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY STORMS.

MAY BE A PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER LATER FRIDAY MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...AS BEST PRECIPITATION AREA WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF
THE AREA. SOME UNCERTAINTY HERE WITH THE PRECIPITATION TRENDS...THUS
THE VICINITY THUNDER WORDING CONTINUES. SOUTHEAST WINDS TONIGHT WILL
SHIFT TO THE SOUTH FRIDAY AND INCREASE IN MAGNITUDE.

MARINE...

EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS TONIGHT WILL INCREASE AND BECOME SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTH ON FRIDAY ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS. WINDS WILL INCREASE
INTO THE 10 TO 20 KNOT RANGE ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL BUILD WAVES TO 2
TO 4 FEET TOWARD SHEBOYGAN. WINDS AND WAVES WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
FRIDAY NIGHT.

BEACHES...

INCREASING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS LATER TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY SHOULD BUILD WAVES TO 2 TO 4 FEET ALONG BEACHES IN
SHEBOYGAN COUNTY. THUS...A MODERATE SWIM RISK IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR
LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DAVIS
TONIGHT/FRIDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...WOOD
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...HENTZ




000
FXUS63 KMKX 290204
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
904 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.UPDATE...
IT/S BEEN EXCEPTIONALLY QUIET ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THIS
EVENING AND THAT TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT...POSSIBLY UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON. FOR TONIGHT...THE AREA
REMAINS UNDER A RATHER PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. THERE
WAS SOME WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH IT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT FOR THE MOST PART THE RIDGE IS INTACT. THE SHOWERS
NORTH OF MILWAUKEE AND MADISON HAVE BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH SOME
850MB WARM AIR ADVECTION THAT WILL ONLY LIFT FARTHER NORTHEAST
WITH TIME. THE HRRR AND THE 18Z NAM TRY TO FIRE SOMETHING UP OVER
NW IL/NE IA AND LIFT IT NORTH INTO THE AREA. THERE IS CONVECTION
CURRENTLY FIRING OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST IOWA IN A REGION OF
UNINHIBITED DEEP CAPE. THE PROBLEM IS THAT CAPE DROPS OFF TO
NOTHING OVER NORTHEAST IOWA...SO IT WOULD BE A STRUGGLE FOR
ANYTHING TO SURVIVE UP IN OUR MORE UNFAVORABLE AIRMASS. PLUS...OUR
SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW IS KEEPING A DRY FEED OF AIR INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. WILL KEEP POPS CHCY LATER TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE
IS LOW THAT WE WILL SEE ANYTHING.

THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN ON FRIDAY AND THE ATMOSPHERE
DESTABILIZES WITH CAPE BUILDING. THAT SHOULD RESULT IN A ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THAT WOULD HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...

THE CHANCE FOR STORMS WAS TRIMMED SIGNIFICANTLY AT THE 00Z
ISSUANCE GIVEN THE LOW CONFIDENCE THAT ANYTHING WOULD REACH THE
AIRPORT LOCATIONS BEFORE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. FORCING IS WEAK
OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WE/LL HAVE TO WATCH IF ANYTHING
DEVELOPS OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHWEST IL
OVERNIGHT...AS THIS WOULD LIKELY ROLL NORTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE CHANCE FOR STORMS INCREASES FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH BUILDING INSTABILITY AND A VERY MOIST
AIRMASS. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS GENERALLY VFR THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. HOWEVER...THERE IS CONCERN THAT AN AREA OF MVFR CIGS OVER
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN MAY GET INTO MADISON BEFORE IT LIFTS NORTH OF
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THE THREAT FOR THOSE LOWER CLOUDS WOULD BE
BETWEEN 06-12Z FRI. BEYOND THAT...ALL SITES SHOULD STAY VFR. ANY
STORMS THAT DEVELOP LATER IN THE TAF PERIOD COULD ALWAYS BRING
BRIEF LOWER CONDITIONS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014/

SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS CURRENTLY MOVING EAST NORTHEAST INTO THE FAR
WESTERN COUNTIES AND WEAKENING. THIS IS BEING DRIVEN BY REMNANT 500
MB MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX. MESOSCALE MODELS ARE SHOWING THIS
AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING EAST NORTHEAST THROUGH MOST OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...CONTINUING TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
INTO DRIER AIR.

THERE IS A MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS IN NORTHERN
ILLINOIS...WHICH COULD ALSO MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
OR EARLY THIS EVENING. LITTLE TO NO ELEVATED CAPE SEEN ON AREA
FORECAST SOUNDINGS...SO PULLED MENTION OF THUNDER LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE HIGHEST POPS WEST WITH LOWER POPS IN THE EAST UNTIL
00Z FRIDAY.

MAIN 850 MB LOW LEVEL JET NOSE WILL FOCUS TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH
OF THE AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE
STRONGEST UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THAT
AREA. SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH
THIS OCCURRING.

STILL SHOULD SEE SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS WITHIN FOCUSED 850 MB WARM
AIR ADVECTION ZONE AND PASSING WARM FRONT TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. HIGHEST POPS ARE IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...CLOSEST
TO BEST UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION. LEFT CHANCE POPS IN THE SOUTH. AREA
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW ELEVATED CAPE SLOWLY INCREASING THROUGH
THE NIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN IN THE 1.80 TO 1.90 INCH
RANGE...BUT CORFIDI VECTORS REMAIN ON THE HIGH SIDE. SO...JUST
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN IS ANTICIPATED.

MODELS SHOWING AREA GETTING INTO WARM SECTOR AIR ON FRIDAY...AS WARM
FRONT MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA. AGAIN...BEST UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION
WILL BE FOCUSED NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA...SO THERE MAY BE A LULL
IN THE PRECIPITATION. LEFT CHANCE POPS GOING ON FRIDAY FOR NOW.

STILL...NO CAPPING WITH 1500 TO 2000 PLUS J/KG MEAN LAYER CAPE AND
WEAK TO MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUGGEST SOME STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE
IF THEY CAN GET GOING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1.50 TO 1.75
INCHES WITH WEAK CORFIDI VECTORS...SO LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL IS
AGAIN A POSSIBILITY. SOUTH WINDS AND SOME SUN IN THE AFTERNOON
SHOULD BRING HIGHS INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH

THE MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PUSHES INTO WISCONSIN. SOMEWHAT OF A
COUPLED JET STRUCTURE FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT THE JET MAX IS RATHER
WEAK AT 50 TO 60 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS MODERATE DURING
THE EVENING TO AROUND MIDNIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING. 700 MB UPWARD
MOTION IS RATHER STRONG AS IT APPROACHES SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN
BUT WEAKENS AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTH. 700 MB RH INCREASES...
BUT IS NOT QUITE SATURATED. THE 850/700 MB SPEED MAX IS ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES...WITH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN IN THE ENTRANCE
REGION. 850 MB DEWPOINTS ARE AROUND 16 CELSIUS DURING THE EARLY
EVENING...BUT THEN DECREASES TO AROUND 11 CELSIUS BY SUNRISE. THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT REACHES SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN FRIDAY NIGHT
AND EXITS THE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY MORNING. EVENING ZERO TO 1 KM
CAPE VALUES AROUND 2000 JOULES/KG DURING THE EARLY EVENING...
DECREASES TO AROUND 600 JOULES/KG OVER THE SOUTHEAST LATE. THE
HIGHER CAPE IS THEN TO THE SOUTH ON SATURDAY WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO WISCONSIN. THE NAM/GFS AND 00Z ECMWF BRING
HEAVY PRECIPITATION INTO SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN FRIDAY
EVENING...WITH DIMINISHING MAINLY MODERATE AMOUNTS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST LATER SATURDAY NIGHT. THE LOCAL SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETER
INCREASES TO AROUND 70 PCT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN FRIDAY
EVENING AND AROUND 70 PCT OVER THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THE NSHARP
FORECAST SOUNDINGS GIVES A SEVERE POTENTIAL SOUTH CENTRAL AND
MARGINAL SEVERE POTENTIAL SOUTHEAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH

THE MAIN SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST BUT A SECONDARY WEAKER SHORTWAVE
MOVES INTO WISCONSIN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING AHEAD
OF THE NEXT STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE PLAINS.

UPPER DIVERGENCE ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN IS WEAK...AS IS THE 700
MB UPWARD MOTION. THE NAM DOES HAVE SCATTERED MAINLY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM...

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH

THE GFS AND ECMWF TAKES A STRONG SHORTWAVE ACROSS WISCONSIN
DURING THIS PERIOD. THE GFS/ECMWF AND DGEX BRING A BAND OF HEAVY
RAIN INTO SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATER SUNDAY NIGHT...AND ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY MORNING. THE GFS IS A LITTLE QUICKER THAN
THE 12Z ECMWF.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH

THE GFS AND ECMWF TAKES A SECOND SHORTWAVE ACROSS WISCONSIN
TUESDAY. THE GFS/ECMWF AND DGEX HAVE JUST LIGHT
PRECIPITATION...MAINLY MORE NORTH TOWARD CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
WISCONSIN.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH

THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE A ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE U.S./CANADIAN
BORDER AREA AS ANOTHER TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST U.S.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY WITH A
WARM FRONT AND PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY ON THE 12Z ECMWF BUT IS DRY ON THE
12Z GFS.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

EXPECT BAND OF SHOWERS TO PUSH EAST NORTHEAST THROUGH MADISON AND
POSSIBLY THE EASTERN TAF SITES BETWEEN 21Z THURSDAY AND 00Z FRIDAY.
MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE. EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL LINGER DURING
THIS TIME.

MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF
TAF SITES TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. STILL SHOULD SEE SOME
SHOWERS AND STORMS AT TIMES...AS WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH THROUGH THE
AREA. FOR NOW...WILL USE VICINITY THUNDER WORDING IN TAFS DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE IN SPECIFIC TIMING. MVFR CEILINGS AND MVFR/IFR
VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY STORMS.

MAY BE A PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER LATER FRIDAY MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...AS BEST PRECIPITATION AREA WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF
THE AREA. SOME UNCERTAINTY HERE WITH THE PRECIPITATION TRENDS...THUS
THE VICINITY THUNDER WORDING CONTINUES. SOUTHEAST WINDS TONIGHT WILL
SHIFT TO THE SOUTH FRIDAY AND INCREASE IN MAGNITUDE.

MARINE...

EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS TONIGHT WILL INCREASE AND BECOME SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTH ON FRIDAY ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS. WINDS WILL INCREASE
INTO THE 10 TO 20 KNOT RANGE ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL BUILD WAVES TO 2
TO 4 FEET TOWARD SHEBOYGAN. WINDS AND WAVES WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
FRIDAY NIGHT.

BEACHES...

INCREASING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS LATER TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY SHOULD BUILD WAVES TO 2 TO 4 FEET ALONG BEACHES IN
SHEBOYGAN COUNTY. THUS...A MODERATE SWIM RISK IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR
LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DAVIS
TONIGHT/FRIDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...WOOD
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...HENTZ





000
FXUS63 KMKX 282018
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
318 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...

.TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS CURRENTLY MOVING EAST NORTHEAST INTO THE FAR
WESTERN COUNTIES AND WEAKENING. THIS IS BEING DRIVEN BY REMNANT 500
MB MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX. MESOSCALE MODELS ARE SHOWING THIS
AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING EAST NORTHEAST THROUGH MOST OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...CONTINUING TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
INTO DRIER AIR.

THERE IS A MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS IN NORTHERN
ILLINOIS...WHICH COULD ALSO MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
OR EARLY THIS EVENING. LITTLE TO NO ELEVATED CAPE SEEN ON AREA
FORECAST SOUNDINGS...SO PULLED MENTION OF THUNDER LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE HIGHEST POPS WEST WITH LOWER POPS IN THE EAST UNTIL
00Z FRIDAY.

MAIN 850 MB LOW LEVEL JET NOSE WILL FOCUS TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH
OF THE AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE
STRONGEST UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THAT
AREA. SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH
THIS OCCURRING.

STILL SHOULD SEE SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS WITHIN FOCUSED 850 MB WARM
AIR ADVECTION ZONE AND PASSING WARM FRONT TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. HIGHEST POPS ARE IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...CLOSEST
TO BEST UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION. LEFT CHANCE POPS IN THE SOUTH. AREA
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW ELEVATED CAPE SLOWLY INCREASING THROUGH
THE NIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN IN THE 1.80 TO 1.90 INCH
RANGE...BUT CORFIDI VECTORS REMAIN ON THE HIGH SIDE. SO...JUST
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN IS ANTICIPATED.

MODELS SHOWING AREA GETTING INTO WARM SECTOR AIR ON FRIDAY...AS WARM
FRONT MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA. AGAIN...BEST UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION
WILL BE FOCUSED NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA...SO THERE MAY BE A LULL
IN THE PRECIPITATION. LEFT CHANCE POPS GOING ON FRIDAY FOR NOW.

STILL...NO CAPPING WITH 1500 TO 2000 PLUS J/KG MEAN LAYER CAPE AND
WEAK TO MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUGGEST SOME STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE
IF THEY CAN GET GOING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1.50 TO 1.75
INCHES WITH WEAK CORFIDI VECTORS...SO LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL IS
AGAIN A POSSIBILITY. SOUTH WINDS AND SOME SUN IN THE AFTERNOON
SHOULD BRING HIGHS INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.


.FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH

THE MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PUSHES INTO WISCONSIN. SOMEWHAT OF A
COUPLED JET STRUCTURE FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT THE JET MAX IS RATHER
WEAK AT 50 TO 60 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS MODERATE DURING
THE EVENING TO AROUND MIDNIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING. 700 MB UPWARD
MOTION IS RATHER STRONG AS IT APPROACHES SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN
BUT WEAKENS AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTH. 700 MB RH INCREASES...
BUT IS NOT QUITE SATURATED. THE 850/700 MB SPEED MAX IS ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES...WITH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN IN THE ENTRANCE
REGION. 850 MB DEWPOINTS ARE AROUND 16 CELSIUS DURING THE EARLY
EVENING...BUT THEN DECREASES TO AROUND 11 CELSIUS BY SUNRISE. THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT REACHES SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN FRIDAY NIGHT
AND EXITS THE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY MORNING. EVENING ZERO TO 1 KM
CAPE VALUES AROUND 2000 JOULES/KG DURING THE EARLY EVENING...
DECREASES TO AROUND 600 JOULES/KG OVER THE SOUTHEAST LATE. THE
HIGHER CAPE IS THEN TO THE SOUTH ON SATURDAY WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO WISCONSIN. THE NAM/GFS AND 00Z ECMWF BRING
HEAVY PRECIPITATION INTO SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN FRIDAY
EVENING...WITH DIMINISHING MAINLY MODERATE AMOUNTS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST LATER SATURDAY NIGHT. THE LOCAL SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETER
INCREASES TO AROUND 70 PCT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN FRIDAY
EVENING AND AROUND 70 PCT OVER THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THE NSHARP
FORECAST SOUNDINGS GIVES A SEVERE POTENTIAL SOUTH CENTRAL AND
MARGINAL SEVERE POTENTIAL SOUTHEAST.

.SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH

THE MAIN SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST BUT A SECONDARY WEAKER SHORTWAVE
MOVES INTO WISCONSIN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING AHEAD
OF THE NEXT STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE PLAINS.

UPPER DIVERGENCE ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN IS WEAK...AS IS THE 700
MB UPWARD MOTION. THE NAM DOES HAVE SCATTERED MAINLY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...

.SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH

THE GFS AND ECMWF TAKES A STRONG SHORTWAVE ACROSS WISCONSIN
DURING THIS PERIOD. THE GFS/ECMWF AND DGEX BRING A BAND OF HEAVY
RAIN INTO SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATER SUNDAY NIGHT...AND ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY MORNING. THE GFS IS A LITTLE QUICKER THAN
THE 12Z ECMWF.

.MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH

THE GFS AND ECMWF TAKES A SECOND SHORTWAVE ACROSS WISCONSIN
TUESDAY. THE GFS/ECMWF AND DGEX HAVE JUST LIGHT
PRECIPITATION...MAINLY MORE NORTH TOWARD CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
WISCONSIN.

.WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH

THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE A ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE U.S./CANADIAN
BORDER AREA AS ANOTHER TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST U.S.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY WITH A
WARM FRONT AND PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY ON THE 12Z ECMWF BUT IS DRY ON THE
12Z GFS.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

EXPECT BAND OF SHOWERS TO PUSH EAST NORTHEAST THROUGH MADISON AND
POSSIBLY THE EASTERN TAF SITES BETWEEN 21Z THURSDAY AND 00Z FRIDAY.
MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE. EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL LINGER DURING
THIS TIME.

MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF
TAF SITES TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. STILL SHOULD SEE SOME
SHOWERS AND STORMS AT TIMES...AS WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH THROUGH THE
AREA. FOR NOW...WILL USE VICINITY THUNDER WORDING IN TAFS DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE IN SPECIFIC TIMING. MVFR CEILINGS AND MVFR/IFR
VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY STORMS.

MAY BE A PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER LATER FRIDAY MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...AS BEST PRECIPITATION AREA WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF
THE AREA. SOME UNCERTAINTY HERE WITH THE PRECIPITATION TRENDS...THUS
THE VICINITY THUNDER WORDING CONTINUES. SOUTHEAST WINDS TONIGHT WILL
SHIFT TO THE SOUTH FRIDAY AND INCREASE IN MAGNITUDE.

&&

.MARINE...

EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS TONIGHT WILL INCREASE AND BECOME SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTH ON FRIDAY ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS. WINDS WILL INCREASE
INTO THE 10 TO 20 KNOT RANGE ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL BUILD WAVES TO 2
TO 4 FEET TOWARD SHEBOYGAN. WINDS AND WAVES WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BEACHES...

INCREASING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS LATER TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY SHOULD BUILD WAVES TO 2 TO 4 FEET ALONG BEACHES IN
SHEBOYGAN COUNTY. THUS...A MODERATE SWIM RISK IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR
LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TONIGHT/FRIDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...WOOD
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...HENTZ




000
FXUS63 KMKX 282018
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
318 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...

.TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS CURRENTLY MOVING EAST NORTHEAST INTO THE FAR
WESTERN COUNTIES AND WEAKENING. THIS IS BEING DRIVEN BY REMNANT 500
MB MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX. MESOSCALE MODELS ARE SHOWING THIS
AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING EAST NORTHEAST THROUGH MOST OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...CONTINUING TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
INTO DRIER AIR.

THERE IS A MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS IN NORTHERN
ILLINOIS...WHICH COULD ALSO MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
OR EARLY THIS EVENING. LITTLE TO NO ELEVATED CAPE SEEN ON AREA
FORECAST SOUNDINGS...SO PULLED MENTION OF THUNDER LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE HIGHEST POPS WEST WITH LOWER POPS IN THE EAST UNTIL
00Z FRIDAY.

MAIN 850 MB LOW LEVEL JET NOSE WILL FOCUS TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH
OF THE AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE
STRONGEST UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THAT
AREA. SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH
THIS OCCURRING.

STILL SHOULD SEE SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS WITHIN FOCUSED 850 MB WARM
AIR ADVECTION ZONE AND PASSING WARM FRONT TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. HIGHEST POPS ARE IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...CLOSEST
TO BEST UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION. LEFT CHANCE POPS IN THE SOUTH. AREA
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW ELEVATED CAPE SLOWLY INCREASING THROUGH
THE NIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN IN THE 1.80 TO 1.90 INCH
RANGE...BUT CORFIDI VECTORS REMAIN ON THE HIGH SIDE. SO...JUST
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN IS ANTICIPATED.

MODELS SHOWING AREA GETTING INTO WARM SECTOR AIR ON FRIDAY...AS WARM
FRONT MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA. AGAIN...BEST UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION
WILL BE FOCUSED NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA...SO THERE MAY BE A LULL
IN THE PRECIPITATION. LEFT CHANCE POPS GOING ON FRIDAY FOR NOW.

STILL...NO CAPPING WITH 1500 TO 2000 PLUS J/KG MEAN LAYER CAPE AND
WEAK TO MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUGGEST SOME STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE
IF THEY CAN GET GOING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1.50 TO 1.75
INCHES WITH WEAK CORFIDI VECTORS...SO LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL IS
AGAIN A POSSIBILITY. SOUTH WINDS AND SOME SUN IN THE AFTERNOON
SHOULD BRING HIGHS INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.


.FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH

THE MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PUSHES INTO WISCONSIN. SOMEWHAT OF A
COUPLED JET STRUCTURE FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT THE JET MAX IS RATHER
WEAK AT 50 TO 60 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS MODERATE DURING
THE EVENING TO AROUND MIDNIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING. 700 MB UPWARD
MOTION IS RATHER STRONG AS IT APPROACHES SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN
BUT WEAKENS AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTH. 700 MB RH INCREASES...
BUT IS NOT QUITE SATURATED. THE 850/700 MB SPEED MAX IS ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES...WITH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN IN THE ENTRANCE
REGION. 850 MB DEWPOINTS ARE AROUND 16 CELSIUS DURING THE EARLY
EVENING...BUT THEN DECREASES TO AROUND 11 CELSIUS BY SUNRISE. THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT REACHES SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN FRIDAY NIGHT
AND EXITS THE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY MORNING. EVENING ZERO TO 1 KM
CAPE VALUES AROUND 2000 JOULES/KG DURING THE EARLY EVENING...
DECREASES TO AROUND 600 JOULES/KG OVER THE SOUTHEAST LATE. THE
HIGHER CAPE IS THEN TO THE SOUTH ON SATURDAY WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO WISCONSIN. THE NAM/GFS AND 00Z ECMWF BRING
HEAVY PRECIPITATION INTO SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN FRIDAY
EVENING...WITH DIMINISHING MAINLY MODERATE AMOUNTS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST LATER SATURDAY NIGHT. THE LOCAL SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETER
INCREASES TO AROUND 70 PCT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN FRIDAY
EVENING AND AROUND 70 PCT OVER THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THE NSHARP
FORECAST SOUNDINGS GIVES A SEVERE POTENTIAL SOUTH CENTRAL AND
MARGINAL SEVERE POTENTIAL SOUTHEAST.

.SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH

THE MAIN SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST BUT A SECONDARY WEAKER SHORTWAVE
MOVES INTO WISCONSIN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING AHEAD
OF THE NEXT STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE PLAINS.

UPPER DIVERGENCE ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN IS WEAK...AS IS THE 700
MB UPWARD MOTION. THE NAM DOES HAVE SCATTERED MAINLY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...

.SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH

THE GFS AND ECMWF TAKES A STRONG SHORTWAVE ACROSS WISCONSIN
DURING THIS PERIOD. THE GFS/ECMWF AND DGEX BRING A BAND OF HEAVY
RAIN INTO SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATER SUNDAY NIGHT...AND ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY MORNING. THE GFS IS A LITTLE QUICKER THAN
THE 12Z ECMWF.

.MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH

THE GFS AND ECMWF TAKES A SECOND SHORTWAVE ACROSS WISCONSIN
TUESDAY. THE GFS/ECMWF AND DGEX HAVE JUST LIGHT
PRECIPITATION...MAINLY MORE NORTH TOWARD CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
WISCONSIN.

.WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH

THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE A ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE U.S./CANADIAN
BORDER AREA AS ANOTHER TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST U.S.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY WITH A
WARM FRONT AND PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY ON THE 12Z ECMWF BUT IS DRY ON THE
12Z GFS.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

EXPECT BAND OF SHOWERS TO PUSH EAST NORTHEAST THROUGH MADISON AND
POSSIBLY THE EASTERN TAF SITES BETWEEN 21Z THURSDAY AND 00Z FRIDAY.
MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE. EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL LINGER DURING
THIS TIME.

MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF
TAF SITES TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. STILL SHOULD SEE SOME
SHOWERS AND STORMS AT TIMES...AS WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH THROUGH THE
AREA. FOR NOW...WILL USE VICINITY THUNDER WORDING IN TAFS DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE IN SPECIFIC TIMING. MVFR CEILINGS AND MVFR/IFR
VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY STORMS.

MAY BE A PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER LATER FRIDAY MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...AS BEST PRECIPITATION AREA WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF
THE AREA. SOME UNCERTAINTY HERE WITH THE PRECIPITATION TRENDS...THUS
THE VICINITY THUNDER WORDING CONTINUES. SOUTHEAST WINDS TONIGHT WILL
SHIFT TO THE SOUTH FRIDAY AND INCREASE IN MAGNITUDE.

&&

.MARINE...

EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS TONIGHT WILL INCREASE AND BECOME SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTH ON FRIDAY ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS. WINDS WILL INCREASE
INTO THE 10 TO 20 KNOT RANGE ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL BUILD WAVES TO 2
TO 4 FEET TOWARD SHEBOYGAN. WINDS AND WAVES WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BEACHES...

INCREASING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS LATER TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY SHOULD BUILD WAVES TO 2 TO 4 FEET ALONG BEACHES IN
SHEBOYGAN COUNTY. THUS...A MODERATE SWIM RISK IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR
LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TONIGHT/FRIDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...WOOD
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...HENTZ





000
FXUS63 KMKX 281607 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1107 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.UPDATE...

AREA OF RAIN WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY MOVING NORTHEAST
TOWARD THE AREA FROM IOWA. THIS IS BEING DRIVEN BY REMNANT 500 MB
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX AND 850 MB LOW LEVEL JET. MESOSCALE
MODELS ARE SHOWING SOUTHERN PORTION OF THIS PRECIPITATION TO
AFFECT AREAS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON.
12Z NAM LIMITING QPF TO THE FAR WEST...WITH THE GFS IN THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA. FEEL REALITY SHOULD BE BETWEEN THESE
TWO SOLUTIONS...MAINLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

MAIN 850 MB LOW LEVEL JET WILL FOCUS MORE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
AREA...SO PRECIPITATION MAY BECOME MORE SCATTERED AS IT MOVES INTO
THE AREA. AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
ELEVATED CAPE.

WILL KEEP GENERAL TREND WITH HIGH POPS IN THE FAR WEST AND
NORTHWEST COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LOWER POPS TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST. CONTINUED SHOWER MENTION WITH CHANCES FOR THUNDER GIVEN
LOW ELEVATED CAPES. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE AROUND 1.80
INCHES...SO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS STILL POSSIBLE DESPITE WEAK
INSTABILITY. INCREASING CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION SHOULD HELP KEEP
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S INLAND...AND AROUND 70 LAKESIDE WITH
ONSHORE WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

EXPECT MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH MAINLY LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO EAST WINDS. AREA OF
RAIN SHOWERS WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CLIP MADISON AFTER
20Z THURSDAY INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES
ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES...ALONG WITH MVFR CEILINGS.

SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AS
WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH THROUGH THE AREA. WILL USE VICINITY THUNDER
WORDING IN TAFS BEYOND 02Z FRIDAY.

MAY BE A PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER LATER FRIDAY MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...AS BEST PRECIPITATION AREA WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF
THE AREA. SOME UNCERTAINTY HERE WITH THE PRECIPITATION
TRENDS...THUS THE VICINITY THUNDER WORDING. SOUTHEAST WINDS
TONIGHT WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH FRIDAY AND INCREASE IN MAGNITUDE.

&&

.MARINE...

INCREASED EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS INTO THE MIDDLE AFTERNOON HOURS
ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS...GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS. SHOULD SEE A
GENERAL 1O TO 15 KNOT RANGE DURING THIS TIME. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR WAVES OF 1 TO 2 FEET ACROSS MOST OF THE WATERS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH

00Z MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SLOW SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING INTO
THE REGION...WITH THE NAM THE SLOWEST BARELY BRUSHING THE FAR
WESTERN CWA WITH QPF UNTIL AFTER 21Z...AND EASTERN SECTIONS AFTER
06Z.

UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER
JET...DOES NOT MOVE IN UNTIL 18Z...A LEAD SHORT WAVE/POSSIBLE MCV?/
MOVES ACROSS BETWEEN 16Z AND 00Z FRIDAY WITH OMEGA AND DEEP MOISTURE
NOT ARRIVING UNTIL AFTER 18Z. WILL TIME PCPN IN WITH LAYER Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE MAX AND FRONTOGENESIS WHICH BRINGS SHOWERS AND STORMS
INTO THE WESTERN CWA BETWEEN 18Z AND 21Z...AND INTO THE EAST BETWEEN
21Z AND 00Z. HAVE GONE MORE WITH SHOWERS AND ONLY A CHANCE OF
THUNDER AS POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES PROVIDE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
CAPE.

WHILE CAPE IS MINIMAL...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE STILL AROUND 2
INCHES SO LOOKING AT SOME HEAVY RAINFALL. CORFIDI VECTOR MAGNITUDES
START OUT FAIRLY SMALL AROUND 5 KTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
INCREASE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  STRONGEST FORCING AND BETTER
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WITH THIS INITIAL ROUND OF PRECIPITATION REMAINS
ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN CWA SO HAVE HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS
THERE...CLOSING IN ON 1 INCH OVER THE FAR NW PORTION OF CWA BY 12Z
FRIDAY. WILL RE-ISSUE THE ESF FOR NOW AS PROGRESSIVE CELL MOVEMENT
PRECLUDES HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING/FLASH FLOODING THOUGH LOCAL
URBAN STREET FLOODING POSSIBLE.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
ACTIVE PERIOD WITH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS WITH VERY MOIST FLOW
AHEAD OF APPROACHING MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. ONE COMPLEX WILL BE
EXITING TO THE NNE FRIDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH THE INITIAL
MOISTURE/WAA SURGE. CLOUD COVER WILL HAVE A SAY ON TEMPS AND ALSO
SUBSEQUENT DEVELOPMENT. THE NAM IS TRENDING DRIER TOWARDS MIDDAY
WHILE OTHER MODELS DO SHOW QPF BUT IN A MORE DISORGANIZED FASHION.
SO TRENDED POPS A BIT LOWER AFTER THE MORNING ROUND SHIFTS AWAY.
BETTER DYNAMICS ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL FRONTAL FORCING ARRIVE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED CVA AND
SURFACE/850 FRONTS DRAW CLOSER. STILL SEEING SIGNALS FOR AREAS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL WITH TALLER SKINNY CAPE...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
1.9-2.0 AND PERIODS OF MBE VELOCITIES AOB 10 KTS. OUR QPF SHOWS
VALUES THROUGH SATURDAY AROUND AN INCH IN THE FAR SE CWA TO OVER 2
INCHES IN THE NW CWA.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
SUBSIDENCE/DRYING WORKS IN THIS PERIOD WITH SURFACE HIGH TAKING
HOLD. THE HIGH DOES SHIFT EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW GETTING BACK UNDERWAY. WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE DRY
SOLUTION OF THE ECMWF. GFS BARELY HINTS AT LIGHT PRECIP IN THE FAR
SOUTH BUT WILL PLAN ON THIS BEING A DRY PERIOD WITH BETTER FORCING
HOLDING OFF TO THE WEST.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
GFS AND ECMWF IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON BRINGING HIGHLY DYNAMICAL
NEGATIVELY TILT SYSTEM THROUGH THIS PERIOD. GFS IS A SMIDGE
QUICKER ON BRINGING PRECIP IN ON SUNDAY EVENING. STRONGEST FORCING
SIGNAL COMES LATER IN THE NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. NOT BEST
TIME FOR TAPPING INTO AVAILABLE MLCAPE...BUT AGAIN THIS SYSTEM HAS
SOME DYNAMIC PUNCH TO IT. STORMS SHOULD BE MOVING ALONG AT A
BETTER CLIP WITH THIS SYSTEM.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
500 MILLIBAR FLOW NEARLY ZONAL ACROSS THE NRN STATES WITH
SPRAWLING RIDGE IN THE SRN STATES. WILL GO WITH A MAINLY QUIET
PERIOD WITH SURFACE/850 HIGH IN CONTROL AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FEED/H8 LLJ STAYING TO THE WEST OF OUR AREA.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...WATCHING FOR SOME GROUND FOG DEVELOPMENT AT
OTHER TAF SITES PRIOR TO 12Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL
SITES THROUGH 18Z TODAY. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF EVEN MORE WITH ONSET
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. WILL HOLD OFF ON PCPN AND MVFR CONDITIONS
UNTIL AFTER 18Z AT KMSN AND 21Z AT EASTERN TAF SITES. WILL BE MORE
SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WOOD
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...COLLAR
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...REM





000
FXUS63 KMKX 281607 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1107 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.UPDATE...

AREA OF RAIN WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY MOVING NORTHEAST
TOWARD THE AREA FROM IOWA. THIS IS BEING DRIVEN BY REMNANT 500 MB
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX AND 850 MB LOW LEVEL JET. MESOSCALE
MODELS ARE SHOWING SOUTHERN PORTION OF THIS PRECIPITATION TO
AFFECT AREAS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON.
12Z NAM LIMITING QPF TO THE FAR WEST...WITH THE GFS IN THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA. FEEL REALITY SHOULD BE BETWEEN THESE
TWO SOLUTIONS...MAINLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

MAIN 850 MB LOW LEVEL JET WILL FOCUS MORE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
AREA...SO PRECIPITATION MAY BECOME MORE SCATTERED AS IT MOVES INTO
THE AREA. AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
ELEVATED CAPE.

WILL KEEP GENERAL TREND WITH HIGH POPS IN THE FAR WEST AND
NORTHWEST COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LOWER POPS TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST. CONTINUED SHOWER MENTION WITH CHANCES FOR THUNDER GIVEN
LOW ELEVATED CAPES. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE AROUND 1.80
INCHES...SO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS STILL POSSIBLE DESPITE WEAK
INSTABILITY. INCREASING CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION SHOULD HELP KEEP
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S INLAND...AND AROUND 70 LAKESIDE WITH
ONSHORE WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

EXPECT MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH MAINLY LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO EAST WINDS. AREA OF
RAIN SHOWERS WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CLIP MADISON AFTER
20Z THURSDAY INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES
ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES...ALONG WITH MVFR CEILINGS.

SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AS
WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH THROUGH THE AREA. WILL USE VICINITY THUNDER
WORDING IN TAFS BEYOND 02Z FRIDAY.

MAY BE A PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER LATER FRIDAY MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...AS BEST PRECIPITATION AREA WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF
THE AREA. SOME UNCERTAINTY HERE WITH THE PRECIPITATION
TRENDS...THUS THE VICINITY THUNDER WORDING. SOUTHEAST WINDS
TONIGHT WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH FRIDAY AND INCREASE IN MAGNITUDE.

&&

.MARINE...

INCREASED EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS INTO THE MIDDLE AFTERNOON HOURS
ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS...GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS. SHOULD SEE A
GENERAL 1O TO 15 KNOT RANGE DURING THIS TIME. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR WAVES OF 1 TO 2 FEET ACROSS MOST OF THE WATERS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH

00Z MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SLOW SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING INTO
THE REGION...WITH THE NAM THE SLOWEST BARELY BRUSHING THE FAR
WESTERN CWA WITH QPF UNTIL AFTER 21Z...AND EASTERN SECTIONS AFTER
06Z.

UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER
JET...DOES NOT MOVE IN UNTIL 18Z...A LEAD SHORT WAVE/POSSIBLE MCV?/
MOVES ACROSS BETWEEN 16Z AND 00Z FRIDAY WITH OMEGA AND DEEP MOISTURE
NOT ARRIVING UNTIL AFTER 18Z. WILL TIME PCPN IN WITH LAYER Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE MAX AND FRONTOGENESIS WHICH BRINGS SHOWERS AND STORMS
INTO THE WESTERN CWA BETWEEN 18Z AND 21Z...AND INTO THE EAST BETWEEN
21Z AND 00Z. HAVE GONE MORE WITH SHOWERS AND ONLY A CHANCE OF
THUNDER AS POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES PROVIDE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
CAPE.

WHILE CAPE IS MINIMAL...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE STILL AROUND 2
INCHES SO LOOKING AT SOME HEAVY RAINFALL. CORFIDI VECTOR MAGNITUDES
START OUT FAIRLY SMALL AROUND 5 KTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
INCREASE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  STRONGEST FORCING AND BETTER
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WITH THIS INITIAL ROUND OF PRECIPITATION REMAINS
ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN CWA SO HAVE HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS
THERE...CLOSING IN ON 1 INCH OVER THE FAR NW PORTION OF CWA BY 12Z
FRIDAY. WILL RE-ISSUE THE ESF FOR NOW AS PROGRESSIVE CELL MOVEMENT
PRECLUDES HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING/FLASH FLOODING THOUGH LOCAL
URBAN STREET FLOODING POSSIBLE.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
ACTIVE PERIOD WITH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS WITH VERY MOIST FLOW
AHEAD OF APPROACHING MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. ONE COMPLEX WILL BE
EXITING TO THE NNE FRIDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH THE INITIAL
MOISTURE/WAA SURGE. CLOUD COVER WILL HAVE A SAY ON TEMPS AND ALSO
SUBSEQUENT DEVELOPMENT. THE NAM IS TRENDING DRIER TOWARDS MIDDAY
WHILE OTHER MODELS DO SHOW QPF BUT IN A MORE DISORGANIZED FASHION.
SO TRENDED POPS A BIT LOWER AFTER THE MORNING ROUND SHIFTS AWAY.
BETTER DYNAMICS ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL FRONTAL FORCING ARRIVE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED CVA AND
SURFACE/850 FRONTS DRAW CLOSER. STILL SEEING SIGNALS FOR AREAS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL WITH TALLER SKINNY CAPE...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
1.9-2.0 AND PERIODS OF MBE VELOCITIES AOB 10 KTS. OUR QPF SHOWS
VALUES THROUGH SATURDAY AROUND AN INCH IN THE FAR SE CWA TO OVER 2
INCHES IN THE NW CWA.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
SUBSIDENCE/DRYING WORKS IN THIS PERIOD WITH SURFACE HIGH TAKING
HOLD. THE HIGH DOES SHIFT EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW GETTING BACK UNDERWAY. WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE DRY
SOLUTION OF THE ECMWF. GFS BARELY HINTS AT LIGHT PRECIP IN THE FAR
SOUTH BUT WILL PLAN ON THIS BEING A DRY PERIOD WITH BETTER FORCING
HOLDING OFF TO THE WEST.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
GFS AND ECMWF IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON BRINGING HIGHLY DYNAMICAL
NEGATIVELY TILT SYSTEM THROUGH THIS PERIOD. GFS IS A SMIDGE
QUICKER ON BRINGING PRECIP IN ON SUNDAY EVENING. STRONGEST FORCING
SIGNAL COMES LATER IN THE NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. NOT BEST
TIME FOR TAPPING INTO AVAILABLE MLCAPE...BUT AGAIN THIS SYSTEM HAS
SOME DYNAMIC PUNCH TO IT. STORMS SHOULD BE MOVING ALONG AT A
BETTER CLIP WITH THIS SYSTEM.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
500 MILLIBAR FLOW NEARLY ZONAL ACROSS THE NRN STATES WITH
SPRAWLING RIDGE IN THE SRN STATES. WILL GO WITH A MAINLY QUIET
PERIOD WITH SURFACE/850 HIGH IN CONTROL AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FEED/H8 LLJ STAYING TO THE WEST OF OUR AREA.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...WATCHING FOR SOME GROUND FOG DEVELOPMENT AT
OTHER TAF SITES PRIOR TO 12Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL
SITES THROUGH 18Z TODAY. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF EVEN MORE WITH ONSET
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. WILL HOLD OFF ON PCPN AND MVFR CONDITIONS
UNTIL AFTER 18Z AT KMSN AND 21Z AT EASTERN TAF SITES. WILL BE MORE
SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WOOD
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...COLLAR
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...REM




000
FXUS63 KMKX 280839
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
339 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH

00Z MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SLOW SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING INTO
THE REGION...WITH THE NAM THE SLOWEST BARELY BRUSHING THE FAR
WESTERN CWA WITH QPF UNTIL AFTER 21Z...AND EASTERN SECTIONS AFTER
06Z.

UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER
JET...DOES NOT MOVE IN UNTIL 18Z...A LEAD SHORT WAVE/POSSIBLE MCV?/
MOVES ACROSS BETWEEN 16Z AND 00Z FRIDAY WITH OMEGA AND DEEP MOISTURE
NOT ARRIVING UNTIL AFTER 18Z. WILL TIME PCPN IN WITH LAYER Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE MAX AND FRONTOGENESIS WHICH BRINGS SHOWERS AND STORMS
INTO THE WESTERN CWA BETWEEN 18Z AND 21Z...AND INTO THE EAST BETWEEN
21Z AND 00Z. HAVE GONE MORE WITH SHOWERS AND ONLY A CHANCE OF
THUNDER AS POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES PROVIDE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
CAPE.

WHILE CAPE IS MINIMAL...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE STILL AROUND 2
INCHES SO LOOKING AT SOME HEAVY RAINFALL. CORFIDI VECTOR MAGNITUDES
START OUT FAIRLY SMALL AROUND 5 KTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
INCREASE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  STRONGEST FORCING AND BETTER
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WITH THIS INITIAL ROUND OF PRECIPITATION REMAINS
ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN CWA SO HAVE HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS
THERE...CLOSING IN ON 1 INCH OVER THE FAR NW PORTION OF CWA BY 12Z
FRIDAY. WILL RE-ISSUE THE ESF FOR NOW AS PROGRESSIVE CELL MOVEMENT
PRECLUDES HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING/FLASH FLOODING THOUGH LOCAL
URBAN STREET FLOODING POSSIBLE.

.FRIDAY AND SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
ACTIVE PERIOD WITH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS WITH VERY MOIST FLOW
AHEAD OF APPROACHING MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. ONE COMPLEX WILL BE
EXITING TO THE NNE FRIDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH THE INITIAL
MOISTURE/WAA SURGE. CLOUD COVER WILL HAVE A SAY ON TEMPS AND ALSO
SUBSEQUENT DEVELOPMENT. THE NAM IS TRENDING DRIER TOWARDS MIDDAY
WHILE OTHER MODELS DO SHOW QPF BUT IN A MORE DISORGANIZED FASHION.
SO TRENDED POPS A BIT LOWER AFTER THE MORNING ROUND SHIFTS AWAY.
BETTER DYNAMICS ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL FRONTAL FORCING ARRIVE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED CVA AND
SURFACE/850 FRONTS DRAW CLOSER. STILL SEEING SIGNALS FOR AREAS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL WITH TALLER SKINNY CAPE...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
1.9-2.0 AND PERIODS OF MBE VELOCITIES AOB 10 KTS. OUR QPF SHOWS
VALUES THROUGH SATURDAY AROUND AN INCH IN THE FAR SE CWA TO OVER 2
INCHES IN THE NW CWA.

.SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
SUBSIDENCE/DRYING WORKS IN THIS PERIOD WITH SURFACE HIGH TAKING
HOLD. THE HIGH DOES SHIFT EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW GETTING BACK UNDERWAY. WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE DRY
SOLUTION OF THE ECMWF. GFS BARELY HINTS AT LIGHT PRECIP IN THE FAR
SOUTH BUT WILL PLAN ON THIS BEING A DRY PERIOD WITH BETTER FORCING
HOLDING OFF TO THE WEST.

.SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
GFS AND ECMWF IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON BRINGING HIGHLY DYNAMICAL
NEGATIVELY TILT SYSTEM THROUGH THIS PERIOD. GFS IS A SMIDGE
QUICKER ON BRINGING PRECIP IN ON SUNDAY EVENING. STRONGEST FORCING
SIGNAL COMES LATER IN THE NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. NOT BEST
TIME FOR TAPPING INTO AVAILABLE MLCAPE...BUT AGAIN THIS SYSTEM HAS
SOME DYNAMIC PUNCH TO IT. STORMS SHOULD BE MOVING ALONG AT A
BETTER CLIP WITH THIS SYSTEM.

.TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
500 MILLIBAR FLOW NEARLY ZONAL ACROSS THE NRN STATES WITH
SPRAWLING RIDGE IN THE SRN STATES. WILL GO WITH A MAINLY QUIET
PERIOD WITH SURFACE/850 HIGH IN CONTROL AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FEED/H8 LLJ STAYING TO THE WEST OF OUR AREA.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...WATCHING FOR SOME GROUND FOG DEVELOPMENT AT
OTHER TAF SITES PRIOR TO 12Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL
SITES THROUGH 18Z TODAY. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF EVEN MORE WITH ONSET
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. WILL HOLD OFF ON PCPN AND MVFR CONDITIONS
UNTIL AFTER 18Z AT KMSN AND 21Z AT EASTERN TAF SITES. WILL BE MORE
SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...REM
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...COLLAR




000
FXUS63 KMKX 280839
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
339 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH

00Z MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SLOW SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING INTO
THE REGION...WITH THE NAM THE SLOWEST BARELY BRUSHING THE FAR
WESTERN CWA WITH QPF UNTIL AFTER 21Z...AND EASTERN SECTIONS AFTER
06Z.

UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER
JET...DOES NOT MOVE IN UNTIL 18Z...A LEAD SHORT WAVE/POSSIBLE MCV?/
MOVES ACROSS BETWEEN 16Z AND 00Z FRIDAY WITH OMEGA AND DEEP MOISTURE
NOT ARRIVING UNTIL AFTER 18Z. WILL TIME PCPN IN WITH LAYER Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE MAX AND FRONTOGENESIS WHICH BRINGS SHOWERS AND STORMS
INTO THE WESTERN CWA BETWEEN 18Z AND 21Z...AND INTO THE EAST BETWEEN
21Z AND 00Z. HAVE GONE MORE WITH SHOWERS AND ONLY A CHANCE OF
THUNDER AS POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES PROVIDE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
CAPE.

WHILE CAPE IS MINIMAL...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE STILL AROUND 2
INCHES SO LOOKING AT SOME HEAVY RAINFALL. CORFIDI VECTOR MAGNITUDES
START OUT FAIRLY SMALL AROUND 5 KTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
INCREASE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  STRONGEST FORCING AND BETTER
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WITH THIS INITIAL ROUND OF PRECIPITATION REMAINS
ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN CWA SO HAVE HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS
THERE...CLOSING IN ON 1 INCH OVER THE FAR NW PORTION OF CWA BY 12Z
FRIDAY. WILL RE-ISSUE THE ESF FOR NOW AS PROGRESSIVE CELL MOVEMENT
PRECLUDES HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING/FLASH FLOODING THOUGH LOCAL
URBAN STREET FLOODING POSSIBLE.

.FRIDAY AND SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
ACTIVE PERIOD WITH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS WITH VERY MOIST FLOW
AHEAD OF APPROACHING MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. ONE COMPLEX WILL BE
EXITING TO THE NNE FRIDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH THE INITIAL
MOISTURE/WAA SURGE. CLOUD COVER WILL HAVE A SAY ON TEMPS AND ALSO
SUBSEQUENT DEVELOPMENT. THE NAM IS TRENDING DRIER TOWARDS MIDDAY
WHILE OTHER MODELS DO SHOW QPF BUT IN A MORE DISORGANIZED FASHION.
SO TRENDED POPS A BIT LOWER AFTER THE MORNING ROUND SHIFTS AWAY.
BETTER DYNAMICS ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL FRONTAL FORCING ARRIVE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED CVA AND
SURFACE/850 FRONTS DRAW CLOSER. STILL SEEING SIGNALS FOR AREAS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL WITH TALLER SKINNY CAPE...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
1.9-2.0 AND PERIODS OF MBE VELOCITIES AOB 10 KTS. OUR QPF SHOWS
VALUES THROUGH SATURDAY AROUND AN INCH IN THE FAR SE CWA TO OVER 2
INCHES IN THE NW CWA.

.SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
SUBSIDENCE/DRYING WORKS IN THIS PERIOD WITH SURFACE HIGH TAKING
HOLD. THE HIGH DOES SHIFT EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW GETTING BACK UNDERWAY. WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE DRY
SOLUTION OF THE ECMWF. GFS BARELY HINTS AT LIGHT PRECIP IN THE FAR
SOUTH BUT WILL PLAN ON THIS BEING A DRY PERIOD WITH BETTER FORCING
HOLDING OFF TO THE WEST.

.SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
GFS AND ECMWF IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON BRINGING HIGHLY DYNAMICAL
NEGATIVELY TILT SYSTEM THROUGH THIS PERIOD. GFS IS A SMIDGE
QUICKER ON BRINGING PRECIP IN ON SUNDAY EVENING. STRONGEST FORCING
SIGNAL COMES LATER IN THE NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. NOT BEST
TIME FOR TAPPING INTO AVAILABLE MLCAPE...BUT AGAIN THIS SYSTEM HAS
SOME DYNAMIC PUNCH TO IT. STORMS SHOULD BE MOVING ALONG AT A
BETTER CLIP WITH THIS SYSTEM.

.TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
500 MILLIBAR FLOW NEARLY ZONAL ACROSS THE NRN STATES WITH
SPRAWLING RIDGE IN THE SRN STATES. WILL GO WITH A MAINLY QUIET
PERIOD WITH SURFACE/850 HIGH IN CONTROL AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FEED/H8 LLJ STAYING TO THE WEST OF OUR AREA.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...WATCHING FOR SOME GROUND FOG DEVELOPMENT AT
OTHER TAF SITES PRIOR TO 12Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL
SITES THROUGH 18Z TODAY. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF EVEN MORE WITH ONSET
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. WILL HOLD OFF ON PCPN AND MVFR CONDITIONS
UNTIL AFTER 18Z AT KMSN AND 21Z AT EASTERN TAF SITES. WILL BE MORE
SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...REM
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...COLLAR





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