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000
FXUS62 KMLB 280005
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
8 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...ROUGH SURF AND ELEVATED RIP CURRENT THREAT CONTINUES INTO LATE
WEEK...

...A BETTER CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS WEEKEND
WITH RAIN CHANCES POSSIBLY INCREASING FURTHER EARLY NEXT WEEK...

CURRENT-OVERNIGHT... UPDATE TO REMOVE THE ROUGH SURF AND ELEVATED
RIP CURRENT THREAT HEADLINE FROM THE COASTAL ZONES. THE HRRR AND
LOCAL WRF MODELS ALL SUGGESTING ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MOVING
EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS...COMING SHORE AS SPRINKLES
THAT MAY REACH WELL PAST INTERSTATE 95 FROM BREVARD COUNTY TO MARTIN
COUNTY BEFORE DISSIPATING. THIS IS STILL IN LINE WITH THE CURRENT
FORECAST. AFTER MIDNIGHT WINDS AROUND 15 MPH DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 5
MPH AWAY FROM THE COAST AND AROUND 5 MPH IN THE COASTAL COUNTIES.

&&

.AVIATION...AFT 28/04Z FEW030 INTERIOR SITES...SCT-BKN040 WITH VCSH
KTIX SOUTH AT THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...BUOYS RECORDING EAST WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS AND SEAS 3 TO 4
FEET JUST OFF THE BEACH PER THE SCRIPPS BUOYS AND 3 TO 5 FEET FROM
BUOY 009 OUT TO BUOY 010. BOTH THE HRRR AND LOCAL WRF`S SUGGESTING
EASTERLY WINDS AVERAGING OUT TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. THE EAST
WINDS OVER A LONG EAST FETCH IN THE ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE 3 TO 5 FOOT LONG PERIOD (SWELL) SEAS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...WARM LOW RECORDS FOR TODAY, MAY 27TH...

DAB 75 (1998)
MCO 76 (1953)
MLB 76 (1986)
VRB 79 (1991)




PREVIOUS AFD

THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...WEAK VORT MAX/LOW LEVEL TROUGH HAS BROUGHT
A LOCAL MOISTURE ENHANCEMENT INTO THE WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON...SETTING OFF A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE LOCAL ATLANTIC.
OTHERWISE CU DEVELOPMENT IS FAIRLY MEAGER ACROSS THE PENINSULA AS
EXPECTED GIVEN THE DRY AIR AND LOW LEVEL INVERSION.

WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A FEW ATLANTIC SHOWERS THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH SOME REACHING THE COAST AT
TIMES. HAVE ADDED THE MENTION OF SPRINKLES FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT ALONG THE SPACE AND TREASURE COASTS...BUT THE PROBABILITY OF
ANY ACCUMULATING OR SIGNIFICANT PRECIP REMAINS LOW. INTERIOR AREAS
WILL REMAIN DRY.

OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAIN MILD AT THE COAST IN THE MID-UPPER 70S WITH
UPPER 60S/LOW 70S OVER THE INTERIOR WITH DRIER AIR.

THURSDAY... UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVERHEAD STARTS TO BREAK DOWN THOUGH
ITS INITIAL EFFECTS ON OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE MINIMAL. MODELS
STILL SHOW SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR ADVECTION FROM THE EAST WITH PWATS
REMAINING AROUND 1" OR LESS AND A VERY SUPPRESSED AIRMASS. THIS WILL
PRECLUDE ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION. A FEW VORT
MAXES/CONVERGENCE BANDS MOVING INTO THE EASTERLY FLOW MAY BRING A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES TO THE WATERS AT TIMES WHICH MAY REACH
THE COAST...BUT IMPACTS REMAIN TOO LOW AT THIS POINT FOR PRECIP
MENTION. AFTERNOON HIGHS CONTINUE IN THE MID 80S COAST AND UPPER
80S/AROUND 90 INLAND.

ROUGH SURF AND ELEVATED THREAT FOR LIFE THREATENING RIP CURRENTS
WILL REMAIN A CONCERN ALONG AREA BEACHES.


THU NIGHT-FRI NIGHT...STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN QSTNRY
ALONG SE ATLC SEABOARD...WHILE SLOWLY WEAKENING THROUGH LATE FRI.
LEADING EDGE OF ENHANCED MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN DEEP EASTERLIES WILL
PUSH WESTWARD ALONG THE CENTRAL/SERN COAST BY LATE THU NIGHT AND
THEN SPREAD WWD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGHOUT FRI. THIS WILL LEAD TO
HIGHER RAIN CHCS...MAINLY SHRA WITH JUST A SLGT CHC FOR TS AS ECSB
WILL BE DIFFUSE AND FAST MOVING IN BLYR FLOW OF  15KT OR SO.
ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE WEST OF THE AREA BY BEFORE SUNSET WITH SMALL
CHC FOR OVERNIGHT COASTAL SHRA RETURNING. HIGHS MID 80S COAST TO
AROUND 90 INTERIOR. MINS IN THE U60S-L70S THU NIGHT AND L-M70S FRI
NIGHT IN SLIGHTLY STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW BEHIND ERLY MOISTURE SURGE.

THIS WEEKEND...AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NE OF FL WILL
FLATTEN/COLLAPSE...LEAVING LIGHT SWRLY MID FLOW OVER FL BETWEEN ITS
CARCASS AND A MID LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE LWR MS VLY.
WEAKENING ATLC SFC RIDGE WILL STILL PROVIDE A LIGHTER ONSHORE FLOW
AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE/MEAN PWAT FOR SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION...WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHCS OVER THE INTERIOR. TEMPS REMAIN REASONABLY
CLOSE TO CLIMO...M-U80S NEAR THE COAST AND NEAR 90F INLAND.
MINSGENERALLY IN THE L70S...A FEW M70S MAINLY BEACHSIDE AREAS.

MON-WED...LOCAL WX PATTERN WILL BECOME UNSETTLED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
FALLS EXTEND E AND SE-WD FROM A SLOWLY EVOLVING CUTOFF LOW WHICH IS
PROGGED TO DROP VERY SLOWLY SWD THROUGH THE LWR MS VLY DURING THIS
PERIOD. THERE IS REMARKABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH DAYS 5-8 BETWEEN THE
ECM AND GFS AT THE SFC AND H50...UNTIL WED (AND BEYOND) AS THE ECM
FAILS TO SHOW THE SFC PRES FALLS OVER THE BAHAMAS LIKE THE GFS.

ALSO OF NOTE IS THE SIMILARITY IN THE SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION PRIOR TO
THE FORMATION OF T.S. ANA JUST OFF OUR SE COAST EARLY THIS MONTH AS
WELL AS THE FACT THAT THE GFS OUTPERFORMED THE ECM IN HAVING INITIAL
BAROCLINIC LOW DEVELOPMENT CLOSER TO SHORE. IN ANY EVENT...SCENARIO
POINTS TWD INCREASING RAIN CHCS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS IF THE MODELS HOLD SERVE. OF COURSE...ANY POTENTIAL LOW
DEVELOPMENT IS A GOOD 6 DAYS AWAY...AND THE STANDARD CAVEATS APPLY
W/R/T MODEL UNCERTAINTY OUT AT THAT TIME RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR. OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS WITH ATLC CLOUD
BANDS/SPRINKLES MOVING INTO THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND
AGAIN ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN 12Z-15Z WITH DAYTIME CU DEVELOPMENT.
OVERALL DRY FORECAST CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

TONIGHT-THU...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN AND CONDITIONS
OVER THE LOCAL ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT DAY AS RIDGE AXIS REMAINS TO
OUR NORTH KEEPING REGION IN MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW. OVERALL SPEEDS
10-15KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS UP TO 20KTS AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY LATE
TONIGHT/THURS MORNING WITH NOCTURNAL WIND MAXIMUM. THE LONG EASTERLY
FETCH WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY BUILD SEAS WITH 3-4 FT THIS AFTERNOON
BUILDING UP TO 5 FT OFFSHORE TONIGHT IN A FRESH SWELL. WILL SEE
DOMINANT WAVE PERIODS LENGTHENING TO AROUND 8 SEC.

FRI-MON...SLIGHT REINFORCEMENT OF ONSHORE WINDS EARLY FRI MORNING
WITH SPEEDS REMAINING IN THE 10-15KT RANGE FRI-SAT...WITH SFC WINDS
WEAKENING SLIGHTLY AS THEY VEER TO SE EARLY NEXT WEEK. POTENTIAL
FOR DEEP LAYER CUTOFF LOW TO SEND SOME SWELL OUR WAY THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND AS IT SLOWLY DRIFTS NWD ALONG 60W FROM NEAR 30N. SEAS
GENERALLY IN THE 3-4FT RANGE NEAR SHORE AND AROUND 5 TO OCNLY 5-6FT
WELL OFFSHORE.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  71  85  70  85 /  10  10  10  30
MCO  71  88  69  88 /   0  10  10  30
MLB  74  85  72  85 /  10  10  20  30
VRB  74  86  70  85 /  10  10  20  30
LEE  72  90  69  90 /   0  10  10  30
SFB  71  87  67  88 /   0  10  10  30
ORL  71  87  70  87 /   0  10  10  30
FPR  75  86  69  85 /  10  10  20  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

FORECASTS...WIMMER
IMPACT WX...KELLY





000
FXUS62 KMLB 280005
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
8 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...ROUGH SURF AND ELEVATED RIP CURRENT THREAT CONTINUES INTO LATE
WEEK...

...A BETTER CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS WEEKEND
WITH RAIN CHANCES POSSIBLY INCREASING FURTHER EARLY NEXT WEEK...

CURRENT-OVERNIGHT... UPDATE TO REMOVE THE ROUGH SURF AND ELEVATED
RIP CURRENT THREAT HEADLINE FROM THE COASTAL ZONES. THE HRRR AND
LOCAL WRF MODELS ALL SUGGESTING ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MOVING
EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS...COMING SHORE AS SPRINKLES
THAT MAY REACH WELL PAST INTERSTATE 95 FROM BREVARD COUNTY TO MARTIN
COUNTY BEFORE DISSIPATING. THIS IS STILL IN LINE WITH THE CURRENT
FORECAST. AFTER MIDNIGHT WINDS AROUND 15 MPH DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 5
MPH AWAY FROM THE COAST AND AROUND 5 MPH IN THE COASTAL COUNTIES.

&&

.AVIATION...AFT 28/04Z FEW030 INTERIOR SITES...SCT-BKN040 WITH VCSH
KTIX SOUTH AT THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...BUOYS RECORDING EAST WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS AND SEAS 3 TO 4
FEET JUST OFF THE BEACH PER THE SCRIPPS BUOYS AND 3 TO 5 FEET FROM
BUOY 009 OUT TO BUOY 010. BOTH THE HRRR AND LOCAL WRF`S SUGGESTING
EASTERLY WINDS AVERAGING OUT TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. THE EAST
WINDS OVER A LONG EAST FETCH IN THE ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE 3 TO 5 FOOT LONG PERIOD (SWELL) SEAS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...WARM LOW RECORDS FOR TODAY, MAY 27TH...

DAB 75 (1998)
MCO 76 (1953)
MLB 76 (1986)
VRB 79 (1991)




PREVIOUS AFD

THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...WEAK VORT MAX/LOW LEVEL TROUGH HAS BROUGHT
A LOCAL MOISTURE ENHANCEMENT INTO THE WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON...SETTING OFF A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE LOCAL ATLANTIC.
OTHERWISE CU DEVELOPMENT IS FAIRLY MEAGER ACROSS THE PENINSULA AS
EXPECTED GIVEN THE DRY AIR AND LOW LEVEL INVERSION.

WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A FEW ATLANTIC SHOWERS THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH SOME REACHING THE COAST AT
TIMES. HAVE ADDED THE MENTION OF SPRINKLES FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT ALONG THE SPACE AND TREASURE COASTS...BUT THE PROBABILITY OF
ANY ACCUMULATING OR SIGNIFICANT PRECIP REMAINS LOW. INTERIOR AREAS
WILL REMAIN DRY.

OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAIN MILD AT THE COAST IN THE MID-UPPER 70S WITH
UPPER 60S/LOW 70S OVER THE INTERIOR WITH DRIER AIR.

THURSDAY... UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVERHEAD STARTS TO BREAK DOWN THOUGH
ITS INITIAL EFFECTS ON OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE MINIMAL. MODELS
STILL SHOW SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR ADVECTION FROM THE EAST WITH PWATS
REMAINING AROUND 1" OR LESS AND A VERY SUPPRESSED AIRMASS. THIS WILL
PRECLUDE ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION. A FEW VORT
MAXES/CONVERGENCE BANDS MOVING INTO THE EASTERLY FLOW MAY BRING A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES TO THE WATERS AT TIMES WHICH MAY REACH
THE COAST...BUT IMPACTS REMAIN TOO LOW AT THIS POINT FOR PRECIP
MENTION. AFTERNOON HIGHS CONTINUE IN THE MID 80S COAST AND UPPER
80S/AROUND 90 INLAND.

ROUGH SURF AND ELEVATED THREAT FOR LIFE THREATENING RIP CURRENTS
WILL REMAIN A CONCERN ALONG AREA BEACHES.


THU NIGHT-FRI NIGHT...STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN QSTNRY
ALONG SE ATLC SEABOARD...WHILE SLOWLY WEAKENING THROUGH LATE FRI.
LEADING EDGE OF ENHANCED MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN DEEP EASTERLIES WILL
PUSH WESTWARD ALONG THE CENTRAL/SERN COAST BY LATE THU NIGHT AND
THEN SPREAD WWD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGHOUT FRI. THIS WILL LEAD TO
HIGHER RAIN CHCS...MAINLY SHRA WITH JUST A SLGT CHC FOR TS AS ECSB
WILL BE DIFFUSE AND FAST MOVING IN BLYR FLOW OF  15KT OR SO.
ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE WEST OF THE AREA BY BEFORE SUNSET WITH SMALL
CHC FOR OVERNIGHT COASTAL SHRA RETURNING. HIGHS MID 80S COAST TO
AROUND 90 INTERIOR. MINS IN THE U60S-L70S THU NIGHT AND L-M70S FRI
NIGHT IN SLIGHTLY STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW BEHIND ERLY MOISTURE SURGE.

THIS WEEKEND...AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NE OF FL WILL
FLATTEN/COLLAPSE...LEAVING LIGHT SWRLY MID FLOW OVER FL BETWEEN ITS
CARCASS AND A MID LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE LWR MS VLY.
WEAKENING ATLC SFC RIDGE WILL STILL PROVIDE A LIGHTER ONSHORE FLOW
AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE/MEAN PWAT FOR SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION...WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHCS OVER THE INTERIOR. TEMPS REMAIN REASONABLY
CLOSE TO CLIMO...M-U80S NEAR THE COAST AND NEAR 90F INLAND.
MINSGENERALLY IN THE L70S...A FEW M70S MAINLY BEACHSIDE AREAS.

MON-WED...LOCAL WX PATTERN WILL BECOME UNSETTLED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
FALLS EXTEND E AND SE-WD FROM A SLOWLY EVOLVING CUTOFF LOW WHICH IS
PROGGED TO DROP VERY SLOWLY SWD THROUGH THE LWR MS VLY DURING THIS
PERIOD. THERE IS REMARKABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH DAYS 5-8 BETWEEN THE
ECM AND GFS AT THE SFC AND H50...UNTIL WED (AND BEYOND) AS THE ECM
FAILS TO SHOW THE SFC PRES FALLS OVER THE BAHAMAS LIKE THE GFS.

ALSO OF NOTE IS THE SIMILARITY IN THE SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION PRIOR TO
THE FORMATION OF T.S. ANA JUST OFF OUR SE COAST EARLY THIS MONTH AS
WELL AS THE FACT THAT THE GFS OUTPERFORMED THE ECM IN HAVING INITIAL
BAROCLINIC LOW DEVELOPMENT CLOSER TO SHORE. IN ANY EVENT...SCENARIO
POINTS TWD INCREASING RAIN CHCS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS IF THE MODELS HOLD SERVE. OF COURSE...ANY POTENTIAL LOW
DEVELOPMENT IS A GOOD 6 DAYS AWAY...AND THE STANDARD CAVEATS APPLY
W/R/T MODEL UNCERTAINTY OUT AT THAT TIME RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR. OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS WITH ATLC CLOUD
BANDS/SPRINKLES MOVING INTO THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND
AGAIN ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN 12Z-15Z WITH DAYTIME CU DEVELOPMENT.
OVERALL DRY FORECAST CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

TONIGHT-THU...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN AND CONDITIONS
OVER THE LOCAL ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT DAY AS RIDGE AXIS REMAINS TO
OUR NORTH KEEPING REGION IN MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW. OVERALL SPEEDS
10-15KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS UP TO 20KTS AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY LATE
TONIGHT/THURS MORNING WITH NOCTURNAL WIND MAXIMUM. THE LONG EASTERLY
FETCH WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY BUILD SEAS WITH 3-4 FT THIS AFTERNOON
BUILDING UP TO 5 FT OFFSHORE TONIGHT IN A FRESH SWELL. WILL SEE
DOMINANT WAVE PERIODS LENGTHENING TO AROUND 8 SEC.

FRI-MON...SLIGHT REINFORCEMENT OF ONSHORE WINDS EARLY FRI MORNING
WITH SPEEDS REMAINING IN THE 10-15KT RANGE FRI-SAT...WITH SFC WINDS
WEAKENING SLIGHTLY AS THEY VEER TO SE EARLY NEXT WEEK. POTENTIAL
FOR DEEP LAYER CUTOFF LOW TO SEND SOME SWELL OUR WAY THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND AS IT SLOWLY DRIFTS NWD ALONG 60W FROM NEAR 30N. SEAS
GENERALLY IN THE 3-4FT RANGE NEAR SHORE AND AROUND 5 TO OCNLY 5-6FT
WELL OFFSHORE.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  71  85  70  85 /  10  10  10  30
MCO  71  88  69  88 /   0  10  10  30
MLB  74  85  72  85 /  10  10  20  30
VRB  74  86  70  85 /  10  10  20  30
LEE  72  90  69  90 /   0  10  10  30
SFB  71  87  67  88 /   0  10  10  30
ORL  71  87  70  87 /   0  10  10  30
FPR  75  86  69  85 /  10  10  20  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

FORECASTS...WIMMER
IMPACT WX...KELLY




000
FXUS62 KMLB 271923
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
323 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...ROUGH SURF AND ELEVATED RIP CURRENT THREAT CONTINUES INTO LATE
WEEK...

...A BETTER CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS WEEKEND
WITH RAIN CHANCES POSSIBLY INCREASING FURTHER EARLY NEXT WEEK...

THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...WEAK VORT MAX/LOW LEVEL TROUGH HAS BROUGHT
A LOCAL MOISTURE ENHANCEMENT INTO THE WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON...SETTING OFF A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE LOCAL ATLANTIC.
OTHERWISE CU DEVELOPMENT IS FAIRLY MEAGER ACROSS THE PENINSULA AS
EXPECTED GIVEN THE DRY AIR AND LOW LEVEL INVERSION.

WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A FEW ATLANTIC SHOWERS THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH SOME REACHING THE COAST AT
TIMES. HAVE ADDED THE MENTION OF SPRINKLES FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT ALONG THE SPACE AND TREASURE COASTS...BUT THE PROBABILITY OF
ANY ACCUMULATING OR SIGNIFICANT PRECIP REMAINS LOW. INTERIOR AREAS
WILL REMAIN DRY.

OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAIN MILD AT THE COAST IN THE MID-UPPER 70S WITH
UPPER 60S/LOW 70S OVER THE INTERIOR WITH DRIER AIR.

THURSDAY... UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVERHEAD STARTS TO BREAK DOWN THOUGH
ITS INITIAL EFFECTS ON OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE MINIMAL. MODELS
STILL SHOW SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR ADVECTION FROM THE EAST WITH PWATS
REMAINING AROUND 1" OR LESS AND A VERY SUPPRESSED AIRMASS. THIS WILL
PRECLUDE ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION. A FEW VORT
MAXES/CONVERGENCE BANDS MOVING INTO THE EASTERLY FLOW MAY BRING A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES TO THE WATERS AT TIMES WHICH MAY REACH
THE COAST...BUT IMPACTS REMAIN TOO LOW AT THIS POINT FOR PRECIP
MENTION. AFTERNOON HIGHS CONTINUE IN THE MID 80S COAST AND UPPER
80S/AROUND 90 INLAND.

ROUGH SURF AND ELEVATED THREAT FOR LIFE THREATENING RIP CURRENTS
WILL REMAIN A CONCERN ALONG AREA BEACHES.


THU NIGHT-FRI NIGHT...STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN QSTNRY
ALONG SE ATLC SEABOARD...WHILE SLOWLY WEAKENING THROUGH LATE FRI.
LEADING EDGE OF ENHANCED MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN DEEP EASTERLIES WILL
PUSH WESTWARD ALONG THE CENTRAL/SERN COAST BY LATE THU NIGHT AND
THEN SPREAD WWD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGHOUT FRI. THIS WILL LEAD TO
HIGHER RAIN CHCS...MAINLY SHRA WITH JUST A SLGT CHC FOR TS AS ECSB
WILL BE DIFFUSE AND FAST MOVING IN BLYR FLOW OF  15KT OR SO.
ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE WEST OF THE AREA BY BEFORE SUNSET WITH SMALL
CHC FOR OVERNIGHT COASTAL SHRA RETURNING. HIGHS MID 80S COAST TO
AROUND 90 INTERIOR. MINS IN THE U60S-L70S THU NIGHT AND L-M70S FRI
NIGHT IN SLIGHTLY STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW BEHIND ERLY MOISTURE SURGE.

THIS WEEKEND...AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NE OF FL WILL
FLATTEN/COLLAPSE...LEAVING LIGHT SWRLY MID FLOW OVER FL BETWEEN ITS
CARCASS AND A MID LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE LWR MS VLY.
WEAKENING ATLC SFC RIDGE WILL STILL PROVIDE A LIGHTER ONSHORE FLOW
AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE/MEAN PWAT FOR SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION...WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHCS OVER THE INTERIOR. TEMPS REMAIN REASONABLY
CLOSE TO CLIMO...M-U80S NEAR THE COAST AND NEAR 90F INLAND.
MINSGENERALLY IN THE L70S...A FEW M70S MAINLY BEACHSIDE AREAS.

MON-WED...LOCAL WX PATTERN WILL BECOME UNSETTLED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
FALLS EXTEND E AND SE-WD FROM A SLOWLY EVOLVING CUTOFF LOW WHICH IS
PROGGED TO DROP VERY SLOWLY SWD THROUGH THE LWR MS VLY DURING THIS
PERIOD. THERE IS REMARKABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH DAYS 5-8 BETWEEN THE
ECM AND GFS AT THE SFC AND H50...UNTIL WED (AND BEYOND) AS THE ECM
FAILS TO SHOW THE SFC PRES FALLS OVER THE BAHAMAS LIKE THE GFS.

ALSO OF NOTE IS THE SIMILARITY IN THE SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION PRIOR TO
THE FORMATION OF T.S. ANA JUST OFF OUR SE COAST EARLY THIS MONTH AS
WELL AS THE FACT THAT THE GFS OUTPERFORMED THE ECM IN HAVING INITIAL
BAROCLINIC LOW DEVELOPMENT CLOSER TO SHORE. IN ANY EVENT...SCENARIO
POINTS TWD INCREASING RAIN CHCS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS IF THE MODELS HOLD SERVE. OF COURSE...ANY POTENTIAL LOW
DEVELOPMENT IS A GOOD 6 DAYS AWAY...AND THE STANDARD CAVEATS APPLY
W/R/T MODEL UNCERTAINTY OUT AT THAT TIME RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR. OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS WITH ATLC CLOUD
BANDS/SPRINKLES MOVING INTO THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND
AGAIN ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN 12Z-15Z WITH DAYTIME CU DEVELOPMENT.
OVERALL DRY FORECAST CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

TONIGHT-THU...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN AND CONDITIONS
OVER THE LOCAL ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT DAY AS RIDGE AXIS REMAINS TO
OUR NORTH KEEPING REGION IN MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW. OVERALL SPEEDS
10-15KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS UP TO 20KTS AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY LATE
TONIGHT/THURS MORNING WITH NOCTURNAL WIND MAXIMUM. THE LONG EASTERLY
FETCH WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY BUILD SEAS WITH 3-4 FT THIS AFTERNOON
BUILDING UP TO 5 FT OFFSHORE TONIGHT IN A FRESH SWELL. WILL SEE
DOMINANT WAVE PERIODS LENGTHENING TO AROUND 8 SEC.

FRI-MON...SLIGHT REINFORCEMENT OF ONSHORE WINDS EARLY FRI MORNING
WITH SPEEDS REMAINING IN THE 10-15KT RANGE FRI-SAT...WITH SFC WINDS
WEAKENING SLIGHTLY AS THEY VEER TO SE EARLY NEXT WEEK. POTENTIAL
FOR DEEP LAYER CUTOFF LOW TO SEND SOME SWELL OUR WAY THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND AS IT SLOWLY DRIFTS NWD ALONG 60W FROM NEAR 30N. SEAS
GENERALLY IN THE 3-4FT RANGE NEAR SHORE AND AROUND 5 TO OCNLY 5-6FT
WELL OFFSHORE.

&&

.CLIMATE...WARM LOW RECORDS FOR TODAY, MAY 27TH...

DAB 75 (1998)
MCO 76 (1953)
MLB 76 (1986)
VRB 79 (1991)

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  71  85  70  85 /  10  10  10  30
MCO  71  88  69  88 /   0  10  10  30
MLB  74  85  72  85 /  10  10  20  30
VRB  74  86  70  85 /  10  10  20  30
LEE  72  90  69  90 /   0  10  10  30
SFB  71  87  67  88 /   0  10  10  30
ORL  71  87  70  87 /   0  10  10  30
FPR  75  86  69  85 /  10  10  20  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...MOSES
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...CRISTALDI





000
FXUS62 KMLB 271923
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
323 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...ROUGH SURF AND ELEVATED RIP CURRENT THREAT CONTINUES INTO LATE
WEEK...

...A BETTER CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS WEEKEND
WITH RAIN CHANCES POSSIBLY INCREASING FURTHER EARLY NEXT WEEK...

THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...WEAK VORT MAX/LOW LEVEL TROUGH HAS BROUGHT
A LOCAL MOISTURE ENHANCEMENT INTO THE WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON...SETTING OFF A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE LOCAL ATLANTIC.
OTHERWISE CU DEVELOPMENT IS FAIRLY MEAGER ACROSS THE PENINSULA AS
EXPECTED GIVEN THE DRY AIR AND LOW LEVEL INVERSION.

WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A FEW ATLANTIC SHOWERS THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH SOME REACHING THE COAST AT
TIMES. HAVE ADDED THE MENTION OF SPRINKLES FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT ALONG THE SPACE AND TREASURE COASTS...BUT THE PROBABILITY OF
ANY ACCUMULATING OR SIGNIFICANT PRECIP REMAINS LOW. INTERIOR AREAS
WILL REMAIN DRY.

OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAIN MILD AT THE COAST IN THE MID-UPPER 70S WITH
UPPER 60S/LOW 70S OVER THE INTERIOR WITH DRIER AIR.

THURSDAY... UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVERHEAD STARTS TO BREAK DOWN THOUGH
ITS INITIAL EFFECTS ON OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE MINIMAL. MODELS
STILL SHOW SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR ADVECTION FROM THE EAST WITH PWATS
REMAINING AROUND 1" OR LESS AND A VERY SUPPRESSED AIRMASS. THIS WILL
PRECLUDE ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION. A FEW VORT
MAXES/CONVERGENCE BANDS MOVING INTO THE EASTERLY FLOW MAY BRING A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES TO THE WATERS AT TIMES WHICH MAY REACH
THE COAST...BUT IMPACTS REMAIN TOO LOW AT THIS POINT FOR PRECIP
MENTION. AFTERNOON HIGHS CONTINUE IN THE MID 80S COAST AND UPPER
80S/AROUND 90 INLAND.

ROUGH SURF AND ELEVATED THREAT FOR LIFE THREATENING RIP CURRENTS
WILL REMAIN A CONCERN ALONG AREA BEACHES.


THU NIGHT-FRI NIGHT...STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN QSTNRY
ALONG SE ATLC SEABOARD...WHILE SLOWLY WEAKENING THROUGH LATE FRI.
LEADING EDGE OF ENHANCED MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN DEEP EASTERLIES WILL
PUSH WESTWARD ALONG THE CENTRAL/SERN COAST BY LATE THU NIGHT AND
THEN SPREAD WWD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGHOUT FRI. THIS WILL LEAD TO
HIGHER RAIN CHCS...MAINLY SHRA WITH JUST A SLGT CHC FOR TS AS ECSB
WILL BE DIFFUSE AND FAST MOVING IN BLYR FLOW OF  15KT OR SO.
ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE WEST OF THE AREA BY BEFORE SUNSET WITH SMALL
CHC FOR OVERNIGHT COASTAL SHRA RETURNING. HIGHS MID 80S COAST TO
AROUND 90 INTERIOR. MINS IN THE U60S-L70S THU NIGHT AND L-M70S FRI
NIGHT IN SLIGHTLY STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW BEHIND ERLY MOISTURE SURGE.

THIS WEEKEND...AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NE OF FL WILL
FLATTEN/COLLAPSE...LEAVING LIGHT SWRLY MID FLOW OVER FL BETWEEN ITS
CARCASS AND A MID LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE LWR MS VLY.
WEAKENING ATLC SFC RIDGE WILL STILL PROVIDE A LIGHTER ONSHORE FLOW
AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE/MEAN PWAT FOR SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION...WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHCS OVER THE INTERIOR. TEMPS REMAIN REASONABLY
CLOSE TO CLIMO...M-U80S NEAR THE COAST AND NEAR 90F INLAND.
MINSGENERALLY IN THE L70S...A FEW M70S MAINLY BEACHSIDE AREAS.

MON-WED...LOCAL WX PATTERN WILL BECOME UNSETTLED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
FALLS EXTEND E AND SE-WD FROM A SLOWLY EVOLVING CUTOFF LOW WHICH IS
PROGGED TO DROP VERY SLOWLY SWD THROUGH THE LWR MS VLY DURING THIS
PERIOD. THERE IS REMARKABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH DAYS 5-8 BETWEEN THE
ECM AND GFS AT THE SFC AND H50...UNTIL WED (AND BEYOND) AS THE ECM
FAILS TO SHOW THE SFC PRES FALLS OVER THE BAHAMAS LIKE THE GFS.

ALSO OF NOTE IS THE SIMILARITY IN THE SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION PRIOR TO
THE FORMATION OF T.S. ANA JUST OFF OUR SE COAST EARLY THIS MONTH AS
WELL AS THE FACT THAT THE GFS OUTPERFORMED THE ECM IN HAVING INITIAL
BAROCLINIC LOW DEVELOPMENT CLOSER TO SHORE. IN ANY EVENT...SCENARIO
POINTS TWD INCREASING RAIN CHCS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS IF THE MODELS HOLD SERVE. OF COURSE...ANY POTENTIAL LOW
DEVELOPMENT IS A GOOD 6 DAYS AWAY...AND THE STANDARD CAVEATS APPLY
W/R/T MODEL UNCERTAINTY OUT AT THAT TIME RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR. OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS WITH ATLC CLOUD
BANDS/SPRINKLES MOVING INTO THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND
AGAIN ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN 12Z-15Z WITH DAYTIME CU DEVELOPMENT.
OVERALL DRY FORECAST CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

TONIGHT-THU...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN AND CONDITIONS
OVER THE LOCAL ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT DAY AS RIDGE AXIS REMAINS TO
OUR NORTH KEEPING REGION IN MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW. OVERALL SPEEDS
10-15KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS UP TO 20KTS AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY LATE
TONIGHT/THURS MORNING WITH NOCTURNAL WIND MAXIMUM. THE LONG EASTERLY
FETCH WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY BUILD SEAS WITH 3-4 FT THIS AFTERNOON
BUILDING UP TO 5 FT OFFSHORE TONIGHT IN A FRESH SWELL. WILL SEE
DOMINANT WAVE PERIODS LENGTHENING TO AROUND 8 SEC.

FRI-MON...SLIGHT REINFORCEMENT OF ONSHORE WINDS EARLY FRI MORNING
WITH SPEEDS REMAINING IN THE 10-15KT RANGE FRI-SAT...WITH SFC WINDS
WEAKENING SLIGHTLY AS THEY VEER TO SE EARLY NEXT WEEK. POTENTIAL
FOR DEEP LAYER CUTOFF LOW TO SEND SOME SWELL OUR WAY THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND AS IT SLOWLY DRIFTS NWD ALONG 60W FROM NEAR 30N. SEAS
GENERALLY IN THE 3-4FT RANGE NEAR SHORE AND AROUND 5 TO OCNLY 5-6FT
WELL OFFSHORE.

&&

.CLIMATE...WARM LOW RECORDS FOR TODAY, MAY 27TH...

DAB 75 (1998)
MCO 76 (1953)
MLB 76 (1986)
VRB 79 (1991)

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  71  85  70  85 /  10  10  10  30
MCO  71  88  69  88 /   0  10  10  30
MLB  74  85  72  85 /  10  10  20  30
VRB  74  86  70  85 /  10  10  20  30
LEE  72  90  69  90 /   0  10  10  30
SFB  71  87  67  88 /   0  10  10  30
ORL  71  87  70  87 /   0  10  10  30
FPR  75  86  69  85 /  10  10  20  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...MOSES
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...CRISTALDI




000
FXUS62 KMLB 271300
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
900 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...ROUGH SURF AND ELEVATED RIP CURRENT THREAT CONTINUES INTO LATE
WEEK...

DRY AND BREEZY EAST FLOW REMAINS THE NAME OF THE GAME TODAY WITH
RADAR AND SATELLITE SHOWING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT CLOUD
LINES OR PRECIP THIS MORNING. MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOW PWATS AROUND
ONE INCH...WHICH IS NEAR THE RECORD MINIMUM PWAT FOR THE DAY. ADDED
TO THIS A RATHER ROBUST INVERSION IS IN PLACE AROUND 3000FT.

THE ONLY FEATURE OF INTEREST IS A WEAK VORT MAX TRAVELING IN THE
EAST FLOW NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS THIS MORNING WHICH MODEL
CONSENSUS HAS MOVING INTO THE WATERS THIS EVENING. UNTIL THIS
FEATURE ARRIVES...FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY...AND EVEN WITH IT DON`T
EXPECT MORE THAN A SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWER OVER THE LOCAL ATLANTIC
AND PERHAPS COAST TOWARDS SUNSET.

HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID-UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST TO UPPER 80S-
LOW 90S OVER THE INTERIOR.

MAIN CONCERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE ROUGH SURF AND ELEVATED THREAT FOR
LIFE THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES TODAY. A BEACH
HAZARDS STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT FOR THESE ANTICIPATED HAZARDOUS SURF
CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR WITH LOCAL MVFR CIGS THROUGH 16Z WITH
DAYTIME CU DEVELOPMENT. BREEZY EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25KTS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...MODERATE EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES AT 10-15KTS WITH
BUOYS SHOWING HIGHER GUSTS UP TO 20KTS AT TIMES. 3-4 FT SEAS WITH
DOMINANT PERIODS 6-7SEC THIS MORNING...BUILDING UP TO 5 FT OFFSHORE
LATE IN THE DAY WITH FRESH SWELL COMING IN AND PERIODS LENGTHENING
TO AROUND 8 SEC.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD WARM LOW TEMPERATURES WERE SET OR TIED AT ALL FOUR
CLIMATE SITES YESTERDAY TUESDAY MAY 26TH.

LOC  DATE   MIN        PREV HI-MIN
DAB 26-MAY  76 *        73 1991
MCO 26-MAY  74 (TIE)    74 1943
MLB 26-MAY  79 *        78 2014
VRB 26-MAY  77 *        76 1991
* NEW RECORD SET

WARM LOW RECORDS FOR TODAY...
DAB 27-MAY  75 1998
MCO 27-MAY  76 1953
MLB 27-MAY  76 1986
VRB 27-MAY  79 1991

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

MOSES/CRISTALDI




000
FXUS62 KMLB 271300
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
900 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...ROUGH SURF AND ELEVATED RIP CURRENT THREAT CONTINUES INTO LATE
WEEK...

DRY AND BREEZY EAST FLOW REMAINS THE NAME OF THE GAME TODAY WITH
RADAR AND SATELLITE SHOWING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT CLOUD
LINES OR PRECIP THIS MORNING. MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOW PWATS AROUND
ONE INCH...WHICH IS NEAR THE RECORD MINIMUM PWAT FOR THE DAY. ADDED
TO THIS A RATHER ROBUST INVERSION IS IN PLACE AROUND 3000FT.

THE ONLY FEATURE OF INTEREST IS A WEAK VORT MAX TRAVELING IN THE
EAST FLOW NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS THIS MORNING WHICH MODEL
CONSENSUS HAS MOVING INTO THE WATERS THIS EVENING. UNTIL THIS
FEATURE ARRIVES...FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY...AND EVEN WITH IT DON`T
EXPECT MORE THAN A SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWER OVER THE LOCAL ATLANTIC
AND PERHAPS COAST TOWARDS SUNSET.

HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID-UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST TO UPPER 80S-
LOW 90S OVER THE INTERIOR.

MAIN CONCERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE ROUGH SURF AND ELEVATED THREAT FOR
LIFE THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES TODAY. A BEACH
HAZARDS STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT FOR THESE ANTICIPATED HAZARDOUS SURF
CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR WITH LOCAL MVFR CIGS THROUGH 16Z WITH
DAYTIME CU DEVELOPMENT. BREEZY EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25KTS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...MODERATE EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES AT 10-15KTS WITH
BUOYS SHOWING HIGHER GUSTS UP TO 20KTS AT TIMES. 3-4 FT SEAS WITH
DOMINANT PERIODS 6-7SEC THIS MORNING...BUILDING UP TO 5 FT OFFSHORE
LATE IN THE DAY WITH FRESH SWELL COMING IN AND PERIODS LENGTHENING
TO AROUND 8 SEC.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD WARM LOW TEMPERATURES WERE SET OR TIED AT ALL FOUR
CLIMATE SITES YESTERDAY TUESDAY MAY 26TH.

LOC  DATE   MIN        PREV HI-MIN
DAB 26-MAY  76 *        73 1991
MCO 26-MAY  74 (TIE)    74 1943
MLB 26-MAY  79 *        78 2014
VRB 26-MAY  77 *        76 1991
* NEW RECORD SET

WARM LOW RECORDS FOR TODAY...
DAB 27-MAY  75 1998
MCO 27-MAY  76 1953
MLB 27-MAY  76 1986
VRB 27-MAY  79 1991

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

MOSES/CRISTALDI





000
FXUS62 KMLB 270757
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
355 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...ROUGH SURF AND ELEVATED RIP CURRENT THREAT CONTINUES INTO LATE
WEEK...

TODAY/TONIGHT... A MODERATE TO BREEZY AT TIMES ONSHORE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TODAY AND TAP INTO A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS ABOVE 850MB THAT
WILL SPREAD WESTWARD OVER THE REGION. MODELS SHOW PW VALUES AROUND
AN INCH AND A FAIRLY STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION THAT WILL KEEP RAIN
CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST. HOWEVER DUE TO THE ELEVATED EASTERLY
FLOW CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER
THE WATERS...MOVING TOWARD THE COAST. ACCUMULATING RAINFALL UNLIKELY
WITH ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY THOUGH AND WILL BE LIMITED IN COVERAGE...
SO WILL KEEP MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR LAND AREAS. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID-UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST TO UPPER 80S-LOW 90S
OVER THE INTERIOR.

MAIN CONCERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE ROUGH SURF AND ELEVATED THREAT FOR
LIFE THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES TODAY. A BEACH
HAZARDS STATEMENT WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR THESE ANTICIPATED HAZARDOUS
SURF CONDITIONS.

THU...EAST CENTRAL FL WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A NARROW
RIDGE ALOFT BETWEEN AN UPPER LOW WELL OFFSHORE NEAR 60W AND
TROUGHING ALOFT WELL NW OF THE AREA. E/ENE LOW LVL WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 15-20 KNOTS 925 MBS MAKING FOR BREEZY ONSHORE FLOW.
MOISTURE LEVELS STILL REMAIN LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP FORECAST DRY...BUT
COULD BE A SHOWER OR TWO TRYING TO MOVE ONSHORE ACROSS MARTIN/ST
LUCIE COUNTIES. HIGHS WILL REACH THE MID 80S COAST TO UPPER 80S TO
AROUND 90 ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

THU NIGHT...ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES WITH AN AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE
MOVING WESTWARD IN THE DEEP EASTERLIES TOWARD E CENTRAL FL. WILL
KEEP A SLIGHT SHOWER CHANCE ACROSS THE MARTIN AND ST LUCIE COUNTY
COAST. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

FRI...AN AREA OF MOISTURE WITH HIGHER PWAT VALUES TO 1.5 TO 1.6
INCHES AND MOISTURE DEPTH TO AROUND 700 MBS SHOULD COMBINE WITH
DAYTIME HEATING AND EASTERLY LOW LVL FLOW TO 15-20 KNOTS TO PRODUCE
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHC OF STORMS FOR EAST CENTRAL.
ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE WEST OF THE AREA BY LATE IN THE DAY. HIGHS MID
80S COAST TO AROUND 90 INTERIOR.

SAT-SUN...LOW LVL FLOW WILL TURN TO ESE/SE THIS WEEKEND WITH SOME
SLIGHTLY HIGHER MOISTURE LVLS WORKING UNDER THE MID LVL RIDGE NORTH
OF THE AREA. WITH MOISTURE LEVELS ONLY GRADUALLY INCREASING EXPECT
RAIN CHANCES IN THE 20-30 PCT RANGE NEAR THE COAST AND UP TO 40 PCT
ACROSS THE INTERIOR WHERE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ACTIVITY WILL BE
FAVORED. HIGHS MID 80S COAST TO NEAR 90 INTERIOR.

MON-TUE...GFS INDICATES MID LVL TROUGH NEAR ARK-LA MONDAY WILL DROP
SOUTHWARD OVER THE GULF INTO MID WEEK. LOW LVL FLOW WILL REMAIN
ESE/ONSHORE BUT MID LVL WINDS WILL BECOME S/SW AHEAD OF THE DIGGING
TROUGH TO THE WEST. WITH HEIGHT FALL AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ON THE
INCREASE SHOULD RETURN TO SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON OVER THE INTERIOR AND STILL LOWER
PRECIP CHCS NEAR THE COAST WITH THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE MOVING
INLAND EACH AFTERNOON. HIGHS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE MID 80S COAST TO
UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 INTERIOR.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS. ONSHORE WINDS PERSIST
BECOMING BREEZY ALONG THE COAST...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE CAPE IN THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE NORTH MAINTAINS A
MODERATE ONSHORE BREEZE...10-15 KTS...ACROSS THE WATERS WITH 3-4 FT
SEAS TODAY BUILDING UP TO 5 FT OFFSHORE TONIGHT.

THU-FRI...EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS WILL KEEP SEAS ELEVATED TO
4-5 FT FOR MUCH OF LATE WEEK WITH SOME OCCASIONAL 6 FT SEAS OFFSHORE
BY FRIDAY. E/ESE WINDS SHOULD DECREASE JUST A BIT SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WITH SPEEDS OF 10-15 KNOTS AND SEAS TO 4-5 FT OFFSHORE.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD WARM LOW TEMPERATURES WERE SET OR TIED AT ALL FOUR
CLIMATE SITES YESTERDAY TUESDAY MAY 26TH.

LOC  DATE   MIN        PREV HI-MIN
DAB 26-MAY  76 *        73 1991
MCO 26-MAY  74 (TIE)    74 1943
MLB 26-MAY  79 *        78 2014
VRB 26-MAY  77 *        76 1991
* NEW RECORD SET

WARM LOW RECORDS FOR TODAY...
DAB 27-MAY  75 1998
MCO 27-MAY  76 1953
MLB 27-MAY  76 1986
VRB 27-MAY  79 1991

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  86  70  83  68 /  10  10  10  10
MCO  92  70  89  69 /  10  10  10  10
MLB  86  72  84  71 /  10  10  10  10
VRB  87  71  84  70 /  10  10  10  10
LEE  92  70  90  70 /  10  10  10  10
SFB  91  70  88  68 /  10  10  10  10
ORL  91  71  88  70 /  10  10  10  10
FPR  87  71  85  69 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...WEITLICH
LONG TERM....VOLKMER




000
FXUS62 KMLB 270757
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
355 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...ROUGH SURF AND ELEVATED RIP CURRENT THREAT CONTINUES INTO LATE
WEEK...

TODAY/TONIGHT... A MODERATE TO BREEZY AT TIMES ONSHORE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TODAY AND TAP INTO A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS ABOVE 850MB THAT
WILL SPREAD WESTWARD OVER THE REGION. MODELS SHOW PW VALUES AROUND
AN INCH AND A FAIRLY STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION THAT WILL KEEP RAIN
CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST. HOWEVER DUE TO THE ELEVATED EASTERLY
FLOW CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER
THE WATERS...MOVING TOWARD THE COAST. ACCUMULATING RAINFALL UNLIKELY
WITH ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY THOUGH AND WILL BE LIMITED IN COVERAGE...
SO WILL KEEP MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR LAND AREAS. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID-UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST TO UPPER 80S-LOW 90S
OVER THE INTERIOR.

MAIN CONCERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE ROUGH SURF AND ELEVATED THREAT FOR
LIFE THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES TODAY. A BEACH
HAZARDS STATEMENT WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR THESE ANTICIPATED HAZARDOUS
SURF CONDITIONS.

THU...EAST CENTRAL FL WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A NARROW
RIDGE ALOFT BETWEEN AN UPPER LOW WELL OFFSHORE NEAR 60W AND
TROUGHING ALOFT WELL NW OF THE AREA. E/ENE LOW LVL WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 15-20 KNOTS 925 MBS MAKING FOR BREEZY ONSHORE FLOW.
MOISTURE LEVELS STILL REMAIN LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP FORECAST DRY...BUT
COULD BE A SHOWER OR TWO TRYING TO MOVE ONSHORE ACROSS MARTIN/ST
LUCIE COUNTIES. HIGHS WILL REACH THE MID 80S COAST TO UPPER 80S TO
AROUND 90 ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

THU NIGHT...ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES WITH AN AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE
MOVING WESTWARD IN THE DEEP EASTERLIES TOWARD E CENTRAL FL. WILL
KEEP A SLIGHT SHOWER CHANCE ACROSS THE MARTIN AND ST LUCIE COUNTY
COAST. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

FRI...AN AREA OF MOISTURE WITH HIGHER PWAT VALUES TO 1.5 TO 1.6
INCHES AND MOISTURE DEPTH TO AROUND 700 MBS SHOULD COMBINE WITH
DAYTIME HEATING AND EASTERLY LOW LVL FLOW TO 15-20 KNOTS TO PRODUCE
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHC OF STORMS FOR EAST CENTRAL.
ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE WEST OF THE AREA BY LATE IN THE DAY. HIGHS MID
80S COAST TO AROUND 90 INTERIOR.

SAT-SUN...LOW LVL FLOW WILL TURN TO ESE/SE THIS WEEKEND WITH SOME
SLIGHTLY HIGHER MOISTURE LVLS WORKING UNDER THE MID LVL RIDGE NORTH
OF THE AREA. WITH MOISTURE LEVELS ONLY GRADUALLY INCREASING EXPECT
RAIN CHANCES IN THE 20-30 PCT RANGE NEAR THE COAST AND UP TO 40 PCT
ACROSS THE INTERIOR WHERE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ACTIVITY WILL BE
FAVORED. HIGHS MID 80S COAST TO NEAR 90 INTERIOR.

MON-TUE...GFS INDICATES MID LVL TROUGH NEAR ARK-LA MONDAY WILL DROP
SOUTHWARD OVER THE GULF INTO MID WEEK. LOW LVL FLOW WILL REMAIN
ESE/ONSHORE BUT MID LVL WINDS WILL BECOME S/SW AHEAD OF THE DIGGING
TROUGH TO THE WEST. WITH HEIGHT FALL AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ON THE
INCREASE SHOULD RETURN TO SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON OVER THE INTERIOR AND STILL LOWER
PRECIP CHCS NEAR THE COAST WITH THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE MOVING
INLAND EACH AFTERNOON. HIGHS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE MID 80S COAST TO
UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 INTERIOR.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS. ONSHORE WINDS PERSIST
BECOMING BREEZY ALONG THE COAST...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE CAPE IN THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE NORTH MAINTAINS A
MODERATE ONSHORE BREEZE...10-15 KTS...ACROSS THE WATERS WITH 3-4 FT
SEAS TODAY BUILDING UP TO 5 FT OFFSHORE TONIGHT.

THU-FRI...EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS WILL KEEP SEAS ELEVATED TO
4-5 FT FOR MUCH OF LATE WEEK WITH SOME OCCASIONAL 6 FT SEAS OFFSHORE
BY FRIDAY. E/ESE WINDS SHOULD DECREASE JUST A BIT SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WITH SPEEDS OF 10-15 KNOTS AND SEAS TO 4-5 FT OFFSHORE.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD WARM LOW TEMPERATURES WERE SET OR TIED AT ALL FOUR
CLIMATE SITES YESTERDAY TUESDAY MAY 26TH.

LOC  DATE   MIN        PREV HI-MIN
DAB 26-MAY  76 *        73 1991
MCO 26-MAY  74 (TIE)    74 1943
MLB 26-MAY  79 *        78 2014
VRB 26-MAY  77 *        76 1991
* NEW RECORD SET

WARM LOW RECORDS FOR TODAY...
DAB 27-MAY  75 1998
MCO 27-MAY  76 1953
MLB 27-MAY  76 1986
VRB 27-MAY  79 1991

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  86  70  83  68 /  10  10  10  10
MCO  92  70  89  69 /  10  10  10  10
MLB  86  72  84  71 /  10  10  10  10
VRB  87  71  84  70 /  10  10  10  10
LEE  92  70  90  70 /  10  10  10  10
SFB  91  70  88  68 /  10  10  10  10
ORL  91  71  88  70 /  10  10  10  10
FPR  87  71  85  69 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...WEITLICH
LONG TERM....VOLKMER





000
FXUS62 KMLB 270757
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
355 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...ROUGH SURF AND ELEVATED RIP CURRENT THREAT CONTINUES INTO LATE
WEEK...

TODAY/TONIGHT... A MODERATE TO BREEZY AT TIMES ONSHORE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TODAY AND TAP INTO A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS ABOVE 850MB THAT
WILL SPREAD WESTWARD OVER THE REGION. MODELS SHOW PW VALUES AROUND
AN INCH AND A FAIRLY STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION THAT WILL KEEP RAIN
CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST. HOWEVER DUE TO THE ELEVATED EASTERLY
FLOW CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER
THE WATERS...MOVING TOWARD THE COAST. ACCUMULATING RAINFALL UNLIKELY
WITH ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY THOUGH AND WILL BE LIMITED IN COVERAGE...
SO WILL KEEP MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR LAND AREAS. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID-UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST TO UPPER 80S-LOW 90S
OVER THE INTERIOR.

MAIN CONCERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE ROUGH SURF AND ELEVATED THREAT FOR
LIFE THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES TODAY. A BEACH
HAZARDS STATEMENT WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR THESE ANTICIPATED HAZARDOUS
SURF CONDITIONS.

THU...EAST CENTRAL FL WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A NARROW
RIDGE ALOFT BETWEEN AN UPPER LOW WELL OFFSHORE NEAR 60W AND
TROUGHING ALOFT WELL NW OF THE AREA. E/ENE LOW LVL WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 15-20 KNOTS 925 MBS MAKING FOR BREEZY ONSHORE FLOW.
MOISTURE LEVELS STILL REMAIN LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP FORECAST DRY...BUT
COULD BE A SHOWER OR TWO TRYING TO MOVE ONSHORE ACROSS MARTIN/ST
LUCIE COUNTIES. HIGHS WILL REACH THE MID 80S COAST TO UPPER 80S TO
AROUND 90 ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

THU NIGHT...ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES WITH AN AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE
MOVING WESTWARD IN THE DEEP EASTERLIES TOWARD E CENTRAL FL. WILL
KEEP A SLIGHT SHOWER CHANCE ACROSS THE MARTIN AND ST LUCIE COUNTY
COAST. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

FRI...AN AREA OF MOISTURE WITH HIGHER PWAT VALUES TO 1.5 TO 1.6
INCHES AND MOISTURE DEPTH TO AROUND 700 MBS SHOULD COMBINE WITH
DAYTIME HEATING AND EASTERLY LOW LVL FLOW TO 15-20 KNOTS TO PRODUCE
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHC OF STORMS FOR EAST CENTRAL.
ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE WEST OF THE AREA BY LATE IN THE DAY. HIGHS MID
80S COAST TO AROUND 90 INTERIOR.

SAT-SUN...LOW LVL FLOW WILL TURN TO ESE/SE THIS WEEKEND WITH SOME
SLIGHTLY HIGHER MOISTURE LVLS WORKING UNDER THE MID LVL RIDGE NORTH
OF THE AREA. WITH MOISTURE LEVELS ONLY GRADUALLY INCREASING EXPECT
RAIN CHANCES IN THE 20-30 PCT RANGE NEAR THE COAST AND UP TO 40 PCT
ACROSS THE INTERIOR WHERE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ACTIVITY WILL BE
FAVORED. HIGHS MID 80S COAST TO NEAR 90 INTERIOR.

MON-TUE...GFS INDICATES MID LVL TROUGH NEAR ARK-LA MONDAY WILL DROP
SOUTHWARD OVER THE GULF INTO MID WEEK. LOW LVL FLOW WILL REMAIN
ESE/ONSHORE BUT MID LVL WINDS WILL BECOME S/SW AHEAD OF THE DIGGING
TROUGH TO THE WEST. WITH HEIGHT FALL AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ON THE
INCREASE SHOULD RETURN TO SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON OVER THE INTERIOR AND STILL LOWER
PRECIP CHCS NEAR THE COAST WITH THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE MOVING
INLAND EACH AFTERNOON. HIGHS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE MID 80S COAST TO
UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 INTERIOR.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS. ONSHORE WINDS PERSIST
BECOMING BREEZY ALONG THE COAST...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE CAPE IN THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE NORTH MAINTAINS A
MODERATE ONSHORE BREEZE...10-15 KTS...ACROSS THE WATERS WITH 3-4 FT
SEAS TODAY BUILDING UP TO 5 FT OFFSHORE TONIGHT.

THU-FRI...EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS WILL KEEP SEAS ELEVATED TO
4-5 FT FOR MUCH OF LATE WEEK WITH SOME OCCASIONAL 6 FT SEAS OFFSHORE
BY FRIDAY. E/ESE WINDS SHOULD DECREASE JUST A BIT SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WITH SPEEDS OF 10-15 KNOTS AND SEAS TO 4-5 FT OFFSHORE.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD WARM LOW TEMPERATURES WERE SET OR TIED AT ALL FOUR
CLIMATE SITES YESTERDAY TUESDAY MAY 26TH.

LOC  DATE   MIN        PREV HI-MIN
DAB 26-MAY  76 *        73 1991
MCO 26-MAY  74 (TIE)    74 1943
MLB 26-MAY  79 *        78 2014
VRB 26-MAY  77 *        76 1991
* NEW RECORD SET

WARM LOW RECORDS FOR TODAY...
DAB 27-MAY  75 1998
MCO 27-MAY  76 1953
MLB 27-MAY  76 1986
VRB 27-MAY  79 1991

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  86  70  83  68 /  10  10  10  10
MCO  92  70  89  69 /  10  10  10  10
MLB  86  72  84  71 /  10  10  10  10
VRB  87  71  84  70 /  10  10  10  10
LEE  92  70  90  70 /  10  10  10  10
SFB  91  70  88  68 /  10  10  10  10
ORL  91  71  88  70 /  10  10  10  10
FPR  87  71  85  69 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...WEITLICH
LONG TERM....VOLKMER





000
FXUS62 KMLB 270115
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
915 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER QUIET WX NIGHT IN STORE FOR E CENTRAL FL AS A LARGE HI PRES
RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC MAINTAINS A DEEP AND STEADY E/SE FLOW ACRS THE
REGION. AS EXPECTED...THE ERLY FLOW PACKED DIURNAL CONVECTION OVR
THE W FL PENINSULA THIS EVNG...RESULTING IN SOME VERY ACTIVE TSRA
ACTIVITY ALONG AND W OF I-75...BUT LITTLE OVER E CENTRAL FL OUTSIDE
OF A FEW SHRAS THAT DVLPD OVR THE GREEN SWAMP AROUND MID AFTN. SRLY
STEERING FLOW THANKS TO AN H85-H50 ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE
CAROLINA COAST...SO NO CHANCE FOR BLOW BACK THIS EVNG.

SIMILAR TO MON EVNG...LATEST RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A BAND OF ENHANCED
H100-H85 MOISTURE OVER THE BAHAMA BANK...EXTENDING ACRS THE FL
KEYS...WITH MEAN RH VALUES BTWN 80-90PCT. WAKE VORTICIES DOWNWIND OF
THE BAHAMAS HAVE COMBINED WITH THIS MOISTURE TO ONCE AGAIN TO ALLOW
SHRA STREAMERS TO DVLP OVER THE GULF STREAM THIS EVNG. HOWEVER...
DRIER AIR HAS PUSHED INTO THE REGION OVER THE PAST 24HRS WITH PWAT
VALUES DROPPING FROM ARND 1.6" TO ARND 1.3"...WHILE THE MID/UPR LVLS
REMAIN LARGELY DEVOID OF ANY SIGNIFICANT DYNAMIC SUPPORT.

THE RESULT IS A SINGLE STREAMER THAT IS MUCH LESS ROBUST THAN MON
EVNG WITH PRECIP DISSIPATING RAPIDLY AS IT PUSHES W OF I-95...THE
BULK OF WHICH IS ACTUALLY LOCATED JUST S OF THE CWA IN PALM BEACH
CO. ANY PRECIP WILL HAVE BRIEF/MINIMAL IMPACT AND MAY EVEN DISSIPATE
BY LATE EVNG GIVEN THE DRIER AIR AND HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT FOR
CONVECTIVE FORMATION. NO PLANS TO UPDATE THE FCST FOR THESE
SHRAS...WILL HANDLE IN THE WX BLOW/SHORT TERM FCST.

THE STEADY ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP THE LCL AIRMASS WELL MIXED THRU
MIDNIGHT. AS OF 900 PM EDT...ALL FOUR CLIMATE STATIONS IN E CENTRAL
FL HAVE EITHER TIED ARE WARMER THAN THEIR RECORD WARM MIN TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...THRU 28/00Z
SFC WINDS: THRU 27/06Z...E/SE DIMINISHING TO 4-8KTS...CONTG THRU
27/12Z. BTWN 27/12Z-26/15Z...E/SE INCREASING TO 8-13KTS. AFT
27/15Z...E/SE INCREASING TO 12-16KTS WITH SFC G20-24KTS.

VSBYS/WX/CIGS: THRU 27/12Z...ISOLD MVFR COASTAL SHRAS S OF KFPR. AFT
27/12Z...OCNL CIGS BTWN FL040-060.

&&

.MARINE...
NO SIG CHANGES WITH THE EVNG UPDATE AS THE HI PRES RIDGE OVER THE W
ATLC  MAINTAINS A MODERATE E/SE BREEZE ACRS THE LCL ATLC. LATEST
BUOY OBS SHOW SEAS ON THE ROUGH SIDE WITH WAVES RUNNING 3-4FT...
DOMINANT PDS 5-6 SEC.

&&

.CLIMATE...

CONTINUING BRISK ONSHORE FLOW MAY ALLOW A FOR MORE RECORD WARM LOWS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY:

LOC  DATE   HI-MIN     TODAY`S MIN (AS OF 900 PM)
DAB 26-MAY  73 1991  76
MCO 26-MAY  74 1943  74
MLB 26-MAY  78 2014  79
VRB 26-MAY  76 1991  76

DAB 27-MAY  75 1998
MCO 27-MAY  76 1953
MLB 27-MAY  76 1986
VRB 27-MAY  79 1991

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...BRAGAW
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...KELLY




000
FXUS62 KMLB 270115
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
915 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER QUIET WX NIGHT IN STORE FOR E CENTRAL FL AS A LARGE HI PRES
RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC MAINTAINS A DEEP AND STEADY E/SE FLOW ACRS THE
REGION. AS EXPECTED...THE ERLY FLOW PACKED DIURNAL CONVECTION OVR
THE W FL PENINSULA THIS EVNG...RESULTING IN SOME VERY ACTIVE TSRA
ACTIVITY ALONG AND W OF I-75...BUT LITTLE OVER E CENTRAL FL OUTSIDE
OF A FEW SHRAS THAT DVLPD OVR THE GREEN SWAMP AROUND MID AFTN. SRLY
STEERING FLOW THANKS TO AN H85-H50 ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE
CAROLINA COAST...SO NO CHANCE FOR BLOW BACK THIS EVNG.

SIMILAR TO MON EVNG...LATEST RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A BAND OF ENHANCED
H100-H85 MOISTURE OVER THE BAHAMA BANK...EXTENDING ACRS THE FL
KEYS...WITH MEAN RH VALUES BTWN 80-90PCT. WAKE VORTICIES DOWNWIND OF
THE BAHAMAS HAVE COMBINED WITH THIS MOISTURE TO ONCE AGAIN TO ALLOW
SHRA STREAMERS TO DVLP OVER THE GULF STREAM THIS EVNG. HOWEVER...
DRIER AIR HAS PUSHED INTO THE REGION OVER THE PAST 24HRS WITH PWAT
VALUES DROPPING FROM ARND 1.6" TO ARND 1.3"...WHILE THE MID/UPR LVLS
REMAIN LARGELY DEVOID OF ANY SIGNIFICANT DYNAMIC SUPPORT.

THE RESULT IS A SINGLE STREAMER THAT IS MUCH LESS ROBUST THAN MON
EVNG WITH PRECIP DISSIPATING RAPIDLY AS IT PUSHES W OF I-95...THE
BULK OF WHICH IS ACTUALLY LOCATED JUST S OF THE CWA IN PALM BEACH
CO. ANY PRECIP WILL HAVE BRIEF/MINIMAL IMPACT AND MAY EVEN DISSIPATE
BY LATE EVNG GIVEN THE DRIER AIR AND HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT FOR
CONVECTIVE FORMATION. NO PLANS TO UPDATE THE FCST FOR THESE
SHRAS...WILL HANDLE IN THE WX BLOW/SHORT TERM FCST.

THE STEADY ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP THE LCL AIRMASS WELL MIXED THRU
MIDNIGHT. AS OF 900 PM EDT...ALL FOUR CLIMATE STATIONS IN E CENTRAL
FL HAVE EITHER TIED ARE WARMER THAN THEIR RECORD WARM MIN TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...THRU 28/00Z
SFC WINDS: THRU 27/06Z...E/SE DIMINISHING TO 4-8KTS...CONTG THRU
27/12Z. BTWN 27/12Z-26/15Z...E/SE INCREASING TO 8-13KTS. AFT
27/15Z...E/SE INCREASING TO 12-16KTS WITH SFC G20-24KTS.

VSBYS/WX/CIGS: THRU 27/12Z...ISOLD MVFR COASTAL SHRAS S OF KFPR. AFT
27/12Z...OCNL CIGS BTWN FL040-060.

&&

.MARINE...
NO SIG CHANGES WITH THE EVNG UPDATE AS THE HI PRES RIDGE OVER THE W
ATLC  MAINTAINS A MODERATE E/SE BREEZE ACRS THE LCL ATLC. LATEST
BUOY OBS SHOW SEAS ON THE ROUGH SIDE WITH WAVES RUNNING 3-4FT...
DOMINANT PDS 5-6 SEC.

&&

.CLIMATE...

CONTINUING BRISK ONSHORE FLOW MAY ALLOW A FOR MORE RECORD WARM LOWS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY:

LOC  DATE   HI-MIN     TODAY`S MIN (AS OF 900 PM)
DAB 26-MAY  73 1991  76
MCO 26-MAY  74 1943  74
MLB 26-MAY  78 2014  79
VRB 26-MAY  76 1991  76

DAB 27-MAY  75 1998
MCO 27-MAY  76 1953
MLB 27-MAY  76 1986
VRB 27-MAY  79 1991

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...BRAGAW
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...KELLY





000
FXUS62 KMLB 270115
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
915 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER QUIET WX NIGHT IN STORE FOR E CENTRAL FL AS A LARGE HI PRES
RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC MAINTAINS A DEEP AND STEADY E/SE FLOW ACRS THE
REGION. AS EXPECTED...THE ERLY FLOW PACKED DIURNAL CONVECTION OVR
THE W FL PENINSULA THIS EVNG...RESULTING IN SOME VERY ACTIVE TSRA
ACTIVITY ALONG AND W OF I-75...BUT LITTLE OVER E CENTRAL FL OUTSIDE
OF A FEW SHRAS THAT DVLPD OVR THE GREEN SWAMP AROUND MID AFTN. SRLY
STEERING FLOW THANKS TO AN H85-H50 ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE
CAROLINA COAST...SO NO CHANCE FOR BLOW BACK THIS EVNG.

SIMILAR TO MON EVNG...LATEST RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A BAND OF ENHANCED
H100-H85 MOISTURE OVER THE BAHAMA BANK...EXTENDING ACRS THE FL
KEYS...WITH MEAN RH VALUES BTWN 80-90PCT. WAKE VORTICIES DOWNWIND OF
THE BAHAMAS HAVE COMBINED WITH THIS MOISTURE TO ONCE AGAIN TO ALLOW
SHRA STREAMERS TO DVLP OVER THE GULF STREAM THIS EVNG. HOWEVER...
DRIER AIR HAS PUSHED INTO THE REGION OVER THE PAST 24HRS WITH PWAT
VALUES DROPPING FROM ARND 1.6" TO ARND 1.3"...WHILE THE MID/UPR LVLS
REMAIN LARGELY DEVOID OF ANY SIGNIFICANT DYNAMIC SUPPORT.

THE RESULT IS A SINGLE STREAMER THAT IS MUCH LESS ROBUST THAN MON
EVNG WITH PRECIP DISSIPATING RAPIDLY AS IT PUSHES W OF I-95...THE
BULK OF WHICH IS ACTUALLY LOCATED JUST S OF THE CWA IN PALM BEACH
CO. ANY PRECIP WILL HAVE BRIEF/MINIMAL IMPACT AND MAY EVEN DISSIPATE
BY LATE EVNG GIVEN THE DRIER AIR AND HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT FOR
CONVECTIVE FORMATION. NO PLANS TO UPDATE THE FCST FOR THESE
SHRAS...WILL HANDLE IN THE WX BLOW/SHORT TERM FCST.

THE STEADY ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP THE LCL AIRMASS WELL MIXED THRU
MIDNIGHT. AS OF 900 PM EDT...ALL FOUR CLIMATE STATIONS IN E CENTRAL
FL HAVE EITHER TIED ARE WARMER THAN THEIR RECORD WARM MIN TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...THRU 28/00Z
SFC WINDS: THRU 27/06Z...E/SE DIMINISHING TO 4-8KTS...CONTG THRU
27/12Z. BTWN 27/12Z-26/15Z...E/SE INCREASING TO 8-13KTS. AFT
27/15Z...E/SE INCREASING TO 12-16KTS WITH SFC G20-24KTS.

VSBYS/WX/CIGS: THRU 27/12Z...ISOLD MVFR COASTAL SHRAS S OF KFPR. AFT
27/12Z...OCNL CIGS BTWN FL040-060.

&&

.MARINE...
NO SIG CHANGES WITH THE EVNG UPDATE AS THE HI PRES RIDGE OVER THE W
ATLC  MAINTAINS A MODERATE E/SE BREEZE ACRS THE LCL ATLC. LATEST
BUOY OBS SHOW SEAS ON THE ROUGH SIDE WITH WAVES RUNNING 3-4FT...
DOMINANT PDS 5-6 SEC.

&&

.CLIMATE...

CONTINUING BRISK ONSHORE FLOW MAY ALLOW A FOR MORE RECORD WARM LOWS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY:

LOC  DATE   HI-MIN     TODAY`S MIN (AS OF 900 PM)
DAB 26-MAY  73 1991  76
MCO 26-MAY  74 1943  74
MLB 26-MAY  78 2014  79
VRB 26-MAY  76 1991  76

DAB 27-MAY  75 1998
MCO 27-MAY  76 1953
MLB 27-MAY  76 1986
VRB 27-MAY  79 1991

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...BRAGAW
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...KELLY





000
FXUS62 KMLB 261940
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
340 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

..ROUGH SURF AND HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK CONTINUES MOST OF THIS
WEEK...

THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...WITH OCEAN DEATHS OCCURRING ON SUN/MON...
AND LITTLE CHANGE IN THE  SURF ZONE CONDITIONS...A HIGH RIP CURRENT
RISK CONTINUES AT LOCAL BEACHES.

THE EARLIER CONVERGENT BAND THAT LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE
COAST AND INTO THE INTERIOR HAS BEEN PUSHED WESTWARDS BY THE
PREVAILING FLOW WITH THE TRAILING END DISSIPATING BACK ALONG THE
TREASURE COAST. DIFFUSE SEA BREEZE MOVING INLAND WILL BRING THE
OCCASIONAL SPRINKLE OR LIGHT SHOWER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON. PROBABILITY REMAINS VERY LOW FOR ANY STORMS AND BASED ON
CURRENT TRENDS HAVE REMOVED THE MENTION FROM THE FORECAST. MOST
ACTIVITY MOVES WEST OF THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON AND BRINGING A DRY
EVENING ACROSS THE REGION.

A FEW CONVERGENCE BANDS OFF THE BAHAMAS MAY BRING A SHOWER OR TWO TO
THE TREASURE COAST BUT DRIER AIR WILL KEEP COVERAGE LOW ENOUGH TO
KEEP MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR OVERNIGHT.

DRIER AIR MAY ALLOW FOR A LITTLE COOLER LOWS AROUND 70 OVER THE
INTERIOR AND LOW 70S ALONG THE COAST. IMMEDIATE SPACE AND TREASURE
COASTS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE MID-UPPER 70S.

WEDNESDAY...NO CHANGE IN THE ONGOING PATTERN WITH DEEP LAYER RIDGE
REMAINING OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST...THOUGH OVERALL STRENGTH WILL SLOWLY
BEGIN TO WANE. WE WILL REMAIN UNDERNEATH A FAIRLY DRY AIRMASS AS
DEEP EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO TAP INTO THE SUBSIDENT AIRMASS OF TO
OUR EAST. MODELS ARE NOT ENTHUSIASTIC ABOUT RAIN OR STORMS...KEEPING
POPS BELOW MENTION...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN TRENDS FROM
TUESDAY. STRAY SPRINKLE FROM ATLANTIC CLOUDS LINES ALONG COAST IN
THE MORNING OR AFTERNOON CU DEVELOPMENT OVER INTERIOR DOESN`T APPEAR
SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO WARRANT POP MENTION SO WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY.
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S.

PREVIOUS EXTENDED DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

WED-FRI...MODELS SHOW A DEEP LAYER OF SUBSTANTIALLY DRIER AIR
BETWEEN 850-300MB BUILDING WESTWARD ACROSS THE REGION FROM MID TO
LATE WEEK. THIS WILL OVERALL KEEP RAIN CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST
THROUGH AT LEAST THU. HOWEVER MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW FROM HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND ELEVATED MOISTURE IN THE LOWER
LEVELS MAY LEAD ISOLATED ONSHORE MOVING SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS
MAINLY ALONG THE COAST IN THE MORNING AND NIGHTTIME HOURS. FOR NOW
WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST UNTIL THU NIGHT/FRI
WHEN PW VALUES BEGIN TO INCREASE MORE SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE EASTERLY
FLOW. EVEN THEN RAIN CHANCES REMAIN LOW...UP TO 20-30 PERCENT BY
WEEKS END.

LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK WITH HIGHS
MID-UPPER 80S COAST TO UPPER 80S/AROUND 90 DEGREES INLAND. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY MILD...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST WHERE
TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW THE LOW-MID 70S IN CONTINUED
ONSHORE WINDS.

SAT-MON...RIDGE TO THE NORTH KEEPS A DEEP EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS
CENTRAL FL WITH MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES INCREASING INTO THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. WX PATTERN WILL FAVOR ISO/SCT ONSHORE
MOVING SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST OVERNIGHT/MORNING WITH INCREASING
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR DURING THE
AFTERNOON. POPS AROUND 30-40 PERCENT SAT/SUN INCREASE TO 30-50
PERCENT MON WITH GREATEST RAIN CHANCES REMAINING INLAND. TEMPS
CONTINUE TO RANGE AROUND NEAR NORMAL VALUES DURING THE DAY AND NEAR
TO ABOVE NORMAL OVERNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLD SHRA MAINLY WEST OF KSFB-KISM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH MOST ACTIVITY MOVING INTO WEST FL AFTER 20Z. GUSTY EAST-
SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNSET WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS 20-
25KTS ESPECIALLY ALONG COAST.

COVERAGE OF ATLC SHRA LOOKS MINIMAL OVERNIGHT WITH CONTINUED DRY AIR
MOVING INTO REGION. BRIEF SPRINKLE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF KMLB WITH
OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS FROM CLOUD BANDS MOVING ONSHORE.

RAIN CHANCES ACROSS REGION LOOK TOO LOW TO MENTION FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY...MODERATE EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES
AROUND 10-15KTS ALONG SOUTH SIDE OF RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING POOR BOATING CONDITIONS OVER THE LOCAL ATLANTIC
WITH SOME GUSTS OCCASIONALLY TO 17-20 KNOTS. SEAS 3-4 FT WITH
PERIODS A CHOPPY 4-6 SEC.

THU-SUN...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MAINTAINS AN OVERALL MODERATE ONSHORE
BREEZE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WIND SPEEDS UP TO AT LEAST 10-15KT...
INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KNOTS AT TIMES. SEAS GENERALLY REMAIN 4-5FT
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.CLIMATE...CONTINUING ONSHORE FLOW MAY ALLOW A FOR MORE RECORD WARM
LOWS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY:

LOC  DATE   HI-MIN
DAB 26-MAY  73 1991
MCO 26-MAY  74 1943
MLB 26-MAY  78 2014
VRB 26-MAY  76 1991

DAB 27-MAY  75 1998
MCO 27-MAY  76 1953
MLB 27-MAY  76 1986
VRB 27-MAY  79 1991

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  71  86  72  84 /  10  10  10  10
MCO  71  90  70  87 /  10  10  10  10
MLB  76  86  74  84 /   0  10  10  10
VRB  72  87  73  85 /  10  10  10  10
LEE  72  91  71  89 /  10  10  10  10
SFB  70  90  69  86 /  10  10  10  10
ORL  70  89  71  87 /  10  10  10  10
FPR  74  87  73  85 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...MOSES
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX....CRISTALDI




000
FXUS62 KMLB 261940
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
340 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

..ROUGH SURF AND HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK CONTINUES MOST OF THIS
WEEK...

THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...WITH OCEAN DEATHS OCCURRING ON SUN/MON...
AND LITTLE CHANGE IN THE  SURF ZONE CONDITIONS...A HIGH RIP CURRENT
RISK CONTINUES AT LOCAL BEACHES.

THE EARLIER CONVERGENT BAND THAT LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE
COAST AND INTO THE INTERIOR HAS BEEN PUSHED WESTWARDS BY THE
PREVAILING FLOW WITH THE TRAILING END DISSIPATING BACK ALONG THE
TREASURE COAST. DIFFUSE SEA BREEZE MOVING INLAND WILL BRING THE
OCCASIONAL SPRINKLE OR LIGHT SHOWER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON. PROBABILITY REMAINS VERY LOW FOR ANY STORMS AND BASED ON
CURRENT TRENDS HAVE REMOVED THE MENTION FROM THE FORECAST. MOST
ACTIVITY MOVES WEST OF THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON AND BRINGING A DRY
EVENING ACROSS THE REGION.

A FEW CONVERGENCE BANDS OFF THE BAHAMAS MAY BRING A SHOWER OR TWO TO
THE TREASURE COAST BUT DRIER AIR WILL KEEP COVERAGE LOW ENOUGH TO
KEEP MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR OVERNIGHT.

DRIER AIR MAY ALLOW FOR A LITTLE COOLER LOWS AROUND 70 OVER THE
INTERIOR AND LOW 70S ALONG THE COAST. IMMEDIATE SPACE AND TREASURE
COASTS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE MID-UPPER 70S.

WEDNESDAY...NO CHANGE IN THE ONGOING PATTERN WITH DEEP LAYER RIDGE
REMAINING OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST...THOUGH OVERALL STRENGTH WILL SLOWLY
BEGIN TO WANE. WE WILL REMAIN UNDERNEATH A FAIRLY DRY AIRMASS AS
DEEP EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO TAP INTO THE SUBSIDENT AIRMASS OF TO
OUR EAST. MODELS ARE NOT ENTHUSIASTIC ABOUT RAIN OR STORMS...KEEPING
POPS BELOW MENTION...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN TRENDS FROM
TUESDAY. STRAY SPRINKLE FROM ATLANTIC CLOUDS LINES ALONG COAST IN
THE MORNING OR AFTERNOON CU DEVELOPMENT OVER INTERIOR DOESN`T APPEAR
SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO WARRANT POP MENTION SO WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY.
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S.

PREVIOUS EXTENDED DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

WED-FRI...MODELS SHOW A DEEP LAYER OF SUBSTANTIALLY DRIER AIR
BETWEEN 850-300MB BUILDING WESTWARD ACROSS THE REGION FROM MID TO
LATE WEEK. THIS WILL OVERALL KEEP RAIN CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST
THROUGH AT LEAST THU. HOWEVER MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW FROM HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND ELEVATED MOISTURE IN THE LOWER
LEVELS MAY LEAD ISOLATED ONSHORE MOVING SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS
MAINLY ALONG THE COAST IN THE MORNING AND NIGHTTIME HOURS. FOR NOW
WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST UNTIL THU NIGHT/FRI
WHEN PW VALUES BEGIN TO INCREASE MORE SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE EASTERLY
FLOW. EVEN THEN RAIN CHANCES REMAIN LOW...UP TO 20-30 PERCENT BY
WEEKS END.

LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK WITH HIGHS
MID-UPPER 80S COAST TO UPPER 80S/AROUND 90 DEGREES INLAND. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY MILD...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST WHERE
TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW THE LOW-MID 70S IN CONTINUED
ONSHORE WINDS.

SAT-MON...RIDGE TO THE NORTH KEEPS A DEEP EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS
CENTRAL FL WITH MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES INCREASING INTO THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. WX PATTERN WILL FAVOR ISO/SCT ONSHORE
MOVING SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST OVERNIGHT/MORNING WITH INCREASING
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR DURING THE
AFTERNOON. POPS AROUND 30-40 PERCENT SAT/SUN INCREASE TO 30-50
PERCENT MON WITH GREATEST RAIN CHANCES REMAINING INLAND. TEMPS
CONTINUE TO RANGE AROUND NEAR NORMAL VALUES DURING THE DAY AND NEAR
TO ABOVE NORMAL OVERNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLD SHRA MAINLY WEST OF KSFB-KISM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH MOST ACTIVITY MOVING INTO WEST FL AFTER 20Z. GUSTY EAST-
SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNSET WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS 20-
25KTS ESPECIALLY ALONG COAST.

COVERAGE OF ATLC SHRA LOOKS MINIMAL OVERNIGHT WITH CONTINUED DRY AIR
MOVING INTO REGION. BRIEF SPRINKLE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF KMLB WITH
OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS FROM CLOUD BANDS MOVING ONSHORE.

RAIN CHANCES ACROSS REGION LOOK TOO LOW TO MENTION FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY...MODERATE EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES
AROUND 10-15KTS ALONG SOUTH SIDE OF RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING POOR BOATING CONDITIONS OVER THE LOCAL ATLANTIC
WITH SOME GUSTS OCCASIONALLY TO 17-20 KNOTS. SEAS 3-4 FT WITH
PERIODS A CHOPPY 4-6 SEC.

THU-SUN...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MAINTAINS AN OVERALL MODERATE ONSHORE
BREEZE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WIND SPEEDS UP TO AT LEAST 10-15KT...
INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KNOTS AT TIMES. SEAS GENERALLY REMAIN 4-5FT
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.CLIMATE...CONTINUING ONSHORE FLOW MAY ALLOW A FOR MORE RECORD WARM
LOWS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY:

LOC  DATE   HI-MIN
DAB 26-MAY  73 1991
MCO 26-MAY  74 1943
MLB 26-MAY  78 2014
VRB 26-MAY  76 1991

DAB 27-MAY  75 1998
MCO 27-MAY  76 1953
MLB 27-MAY  76 1986
VRB 27-MAY  79 1991

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  71  86  72  84 /  10  10  10  10
MCO  71  90  70  87 /  10  10  10  10
MLB  76  86  74  84 /   0  10  10  10
VRB  72  87  73  85 /  10  10  10  10
LEE  72  91  71  89 /  10  10  10  10
SFB  70  90  69  86 /  10  10  10  10
ORL  70  89  71  87 /  10  10  10  10
FPR  74  87  73  85 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...MOSES
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX....CRISTALDI




000
FXUS62 KMLB 261940
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
340 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

..ROUGH SURF AND HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK CONTINUES MOST OF THIS
WEEK...

THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...WITH OCEAN DEATHS OCCURRING ON SUN/MON...
AND LITTLE CHANGE IN THE  SURF ZONE CONDITIONS...A HIGH RIP CURRENT
RISK CONTINUES AT LOCAL BEACHES.

THE EARLIER CONVERGENT BAND THAT LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE
COAST AND INTO THE INTERIOR HAS BEEN PUSHED WESTWARDS BY THE
PREVAILING FLOW WITH THE TRAILING END DISSIPATING BACK ALONG THE
TREASURE COAST. DIFFUSE SEA BREEZE MOVING INLAND WILL BRING THE
OCCASIONAL SPRINKLE OR LIGHT SHOWER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON. PROBABILITY REMAINS VERY LOW FOR ANY STORMS AND BASED ON
CURRENT TRENDS HAVE REMOVED THE MENTION FROM THE FORECAST. MOST
ACTIVITY MOVES WEST OF THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON AND BRINGING A DRY
EVENING ACROSS THE REGION.

A FEW CONVERGENCE BANDS OFF THE BAHAMAS MAY BRING A SHOWER OR TWO TO
THE TREASURE COAST BUT DRIER AIR WILL KEEP COVERAGE LOW ENOUGH TO
KEEP MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR OVERNIGHT.

DRIER AIR MAY ALLOW FOR A LITTLE COOLER LOWS AROUND 70 OVER THE
INTERIOR AND LOW 70S ALONG THE COAST. IMMEDIATE SPACE AND TREASURE
COASTS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE MID-UPPER 70S.

WEDNESDAY...NO CHANGE IN THE ONGOING PATTERN WITH DEEP LAYER RIDGE
REMAINING OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST...THOUGH OVERALL STRENGTH WILL SLOWLY
BEGIN TO WANE. WE WILL REMAIN UNDERNEATH A FAIRLY DRY AIRMASS AS
DEEP EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO TAP INTO THE SUBSIDENT AIRMASS OF TO
OUR EAST. MODELS ARE NOT ENTHUSIASTIC ABOUT RAIN OR STORMS...KEEPING
POPS BELOW MENTION...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN TRENDS FROM
TUESDAY. STRAY SPRINKLE FROM ATLANTIC CLOUDS LINES ALONG COAST IN
THE MORNING OR AFTERNOON CU DEVELOPMENT OVER INTERIOR DOESN`T APPEAR
SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO WARRANT POP MENTION SO WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY.
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S.

PREVIOUS EXTENDED DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

WED-FRI...MODELS SHOW A DEEP LAYER OF SUBSTANTIALLY DRIER AIR
BETWEEN 850-300MB BUILDING WESTWARD ACROSS THE REGION FROM MID TO
LATE WEEK. THIS WILL OVERALL KEEP RAIN CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST
THROUGH AT LEAST THU. HOWEVER MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW FROM HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND ELEVATED MOISTURE IN THE LOWER
LEVELS MAY LEAD ISOLATED ONSHORE MOVING SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS
MAINLY ALONG THE COAST IN THE MORNING AND NIGHTTIME HOURS. FOR NOW
WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST UNTIL THU NIGHT/FRI
WHEN PW VALUES BEGIN TO INCREASE MORE SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE EASTERLY
FLOW. EVEN THEN RAIN CHANCES REMAIN LOW...UP TO 20-30 PERCENT BY
WEEKS END.

LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK WITH HIGHS
MID-UPPER 80S COAST TO UPPER 80S/AROUND 90 DEGREES INLAND. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY MILD...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST WHERE
TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW THE LOW-MID 70S IN CONTINUED
ONSHORE WINDS.

SAT-MON...RIDGE TO THE NORTH KEEPS A DEEP EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS
CENTRAL FL WITH MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES INCREASING INTO THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. WX PATTERN WILL FAVOR ISO/SCT ONSHORE
MOVING SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST OVERNIGHT/MORNING WITH INCREASING
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR DURING THE
AFTERNOON. POPS AROUND 30-40 PERCENT SAT/SUN INCREASE TO 30-50
PERCENT MON WITH GREATEST RAIN CHANCES REMAINING INLAND. TEMPS
CONTINUE TO RANGE AROUND NEAR NORMAL VALUES DURING THE DAY AND NEAR
TO ABOVE NORMAL OVERNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLD SHRA MAINLY WEST OF KSFB-KISM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH MOST ACTIVITY MOVING INTO WEST FL AFTER 20Z. GUSTY EAST-
SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNSET WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS 20-
25KTS ESPECIALLY ALONG COAST.

COVERAGE OF ATLC SHRA LOOKS MINIMAL OVERNIGHT WITH CONTINUED DRY AIR
MOVING INTO REGION. BRIEF SPRINKLE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF KMLB WITH
OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS FROM CLOUD BANDS MOVING ONSHORE.

RAIN CHANCES ACROSS REGION LOOK TOO LOW TO MENTION FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY...MODERATE EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES
AROUND 10-15KTS ALONG SOUTH SIDE OF RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING POOR BOATING CONDITIONS OVER THE LOCAL ATLANTIC
WITH SOME GUSTS OCCASIONALLY TO 17-20 KNOTS. SEAS 3-4 FT WITH
PERIODS A CHOPPY 4-6 SEC.

THU-SUN...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MAINTAINS AN OVERALL MODERATE ONSHORE
BREEZE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WIND SPEEDS UP TO AT LEAST 10-15KT...
INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KNOTS AT TIMES. SEAS GENERALLY REMAIN 4-5FT
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.CLIMATE...CONTINUING ONSHORE FLOW MAY ALLOW A FOR MORE RECORD WARM
LOWS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY:

LOC  DATE   HI-MIN
DAB 26-MAY  73 1991
MCO 26-MAY  74 1943
MLB 26-MAY  78 2014
VRB 26-MAY  76 1991

DAB 27-MAY  75 1998
MCO 27-MAY  76 1953
MLB 27-MAY  76 1986
VRB 27-MAY  79 1991

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  71  86  72  84 /  10  10  10  10
MCO  71  90  70  87 /  10  10  10  10
MLB  76  86  74  84 /   0  10  10  10
VRB  72  87  73  85 /  10  10  10  10
LEE  72  91  71  89 /  10  10  10  10
SFB  70  90  69  86 /  10  10  10  10
ORL  70  89  71  87 /  10  10  10  10
FPR  74  87  73  85 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...MOSES
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX....CRISTALDI





000
FXUS62 KMLB 261317
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
917 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...ROUGH SURF AND HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK CONTINUES...

WITH OCEAN DEATHS OCCURRING ON SUN/MON...AND LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
SURF ZONE CONDITIONS...WILL CARRY A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK.

DEEP AND DRY EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW PREVAILS TODAY AS WE REMAIN ON THE
SOUTH SIDE OF THE DEEP RIDGE TO OUR NORTHEAST OVER THE ATLANTIC.
MORNING SOUNDING SHOWS RATHER ROBUST MID LEVEL INVERSION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE RIDGE WITH PWATS AROUND 1.5"...ALL IN THE LOWER LEVELS.

WHILE THIS IS SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW LOW TOPPED SHOWERS IN ATLANTIC
CLOUD LINES AS WE CURRENTLY SEEING ON RADAR...OVERALL COVERAGE TODAY
WILL REMAIN MINIMAL. A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST SOUTH OF THE CAPE
THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH THE ONGOING CONVERGENCE BAND...WITH
ISOLATED ACTIVITY WEST OF I-4 FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON WITH DIFFUSE SEA BREEZE. WON`T RULE OUT A STORM OR TWO
GIVEN TRENDS FROM PREVIOUS DAYS. ACTIVITY SHIFTS WEST OF THE AREA BY
LATE AFTERNOON.

MAX TEMPS LOOK CLOSE TO NORMAL BUT THE EAST FLOW WILL KEEP MIN TEMPS
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLD ATLC SHRA MOVING INTO COAST FROM KMLB-KSUA THROUGH
15Z. MOIST LOW LEVELS WILL ALLOW FOR LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS WITH
MORNING CU DEVELOPMENT THROUGH 17Z...THOUGH MAY LINGER LONGER AT
COAST.

OTHERWISE MINIMAL RAIN AND STORM CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON WITH ISOLD
SHRA/POSSIBLY TSRA MAINLY WEST OF KSFB-KISM 15Z-19Z. MOST ACTIVITY
MOVES INTO WEST FL AFTER 20Z.

&&

.MARINE...POOR BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE ONGOING CONDITIONS OVER THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WITH MODERATE EAST-
SOUTHEAST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS...OCCASIONALLY A LITTLE MORE GUSTY TO 17-
18 KNOTS. SEAS 3-4 FT WITH PERIODS A ROUGH 4-6 SEC.

&&

.CLIMATE...MLB HAD A RECORD WARM LOW TEMPERATURE (79) YESTERDAY.
THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 76 SET IN 1991. THIS LOW TEMP WAS ALSO
THE THE WARMEST FOR THE MONTH OF MAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME RECORD WARM LOWS AGAIN TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY:

LOC  DATE   HI-MIN
DAB 26-MAY  73 1991
MCO 26-MAY  74 1943
MLB 26-MAY  78 2014
VRB 26-MAY  76 1991

DAB 27-MAY  75 1998
MCO 27-MAY  76 1953
MLB 27-MAY  76 1986
VRB 27-MAY  79 1991

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

MOSES/CRISTALDI




000
FXUS62 KMLB 261317
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
917 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...ROUGH SURF AND HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK CONTINUES...

WITH OCEAN DEATHS OCCURRING ON SUN/MON...AND LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
SURF ZONE CONDITIONS...WILL CARRY A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK.

DEEP AND DRY EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW PREVAILS TODAY AS WE REMAIN ON THE
SOUTH SIDE OF THE DEEP RIDGE TO OUR NORTHEAST OVER THE ATLANTIC.
MORNING SOUNDING SHOWS RATHER ROBUST MID LEVEL INVERSION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE RIDGE WITH PWATS AROUND 1.5"...ALL IN THE LOWER LEVELS.

WHILE THIS IS SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW LOW TOPPED SHOWERS IN ATLANTIC
CLOUD LINES AS WE CURRENTLY SEEING ON RADAR...OVERALL COVERAGE TODAY
WILL REMAIN MINIMAL. A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST SOUTH OF THE CAPE
THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH THE ONGOING CONVERGENCE BAND...WITH
ISOLATED ACTIVITY WEST OF I-4 FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON WITH DIFFUSE SEA BREEZE. WON`T RULE OUT A STORM OR TWO
GIVEN TRENDS FROM PREVIOUS DAYS. ACTIVITY SHIFTS WEST OF THE AREA BY
LATE AFTERNOON.

MAX TEMPS LOOK CLOSE TO NORMAL BUT THE EAST FLOW WILL KEEP MIN TEMPS
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLD ATLC SHRA MOVING INTO COAST FROM KMLB-KSUA THROUGH
15Z. MOIST LOW LEVELS WILL ALLOW FOR LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS WITH
MORNING CU DEVELOPMENT THROUGH 17Z...THOUGH MAY LINGER LONGER AT
COAST.

OTHERWISE MINIMAL RAIN AND STORM CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON WITH ISOLD
SHRA/POSSIBLY TSRA MAINLY WEST OF KSFB-KISM 15Z-19Z. MOST ACTIVITY
MOVES INTO WEST FL AFTER 20Z.

&&

.MARINE...POOR BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE ONGOING CONDITIONS OVER THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WITH MODERATE EAST-
SOUTHEAST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS...OCCASIONALLY A LITTLE MORE GUSTY TO 17-
18 KNOTS. SEAS 3-4 FT WITH PERIODS A ROUGH 4-6 SEC.

&&

.CLIMATE...MLB HAD A RECORD WARM LOW TEMPERATURE (79) YESTERDAY.
THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 76 SET IN 1991. THIS LOW TEMP WAS ALSO
THE THE WARMEST FOR THE MONTH OF MAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME RECORD WARM LOWS AGAIN TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY:

LOC  DATE   HI-MIN
DAB 26-MAY  73 1991
MCO 26-MAY  74 1943
MLB 26-MAY  78 2014
VRB 26-MAY  76 1991

DAB 27-MAY  75 1998
MCO 27-MAY  76 1953
MLB 27-MAY  76 1986
VRB 27-MAY  79 1991

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

MOSES/CRISTALDI





000
FXUS62 KMLB 261317
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
917 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...ROUGH SURF AND HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK CONTINUES...

WITH OCEAN DEATHS OCCURRING ON SUN/MON...AND LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
SURF ZONE CONDITIONS...WILL CARRY A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK.

DEEP AND DRY EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW PREVAILS TODAY AS WE REMAIN ON THE
SOUTH SIDE OF THE DEEP RIDGE TO OUR NORTHEAST OVER THE ATLANTIC.
MORNING SOUNDING SHOWS RATHER ROBUST MID LEVEL INVERSION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE RIDGE WITH PWATS AROUND 1.5"...ALL IN THE LOWER LEVELS.

WHILE THIS IS SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW LOW TOPPED SHOWERS IN ATLANTIC
CLOUD LINES AS WE CURRENTLY SEEING ON RADAR...OVERALL COVERAGE TODAY
WILL REMAIN MINIMAL. A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST SOUTH OF THE CAPE
THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH THE ONGOING CONVERGENCE BAND...WITH
ISOLATED ACTIVITY WEST OF I-4 FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON WITH DIFFUSE SEA BREEZE. WON`T RULE OUT A STORM OR TWO
GIVEN TRENDS FROM PREVIOUS DAYS. ACTIVITY SHIFTS WEST OF THE AREA BY
LATE AFTERNOON.

MAX TEMPS LOOK CLOSE TO NORMAL BUT THE EAST FLOW WILL KEEP MIN TEMPS
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLD ATLC SHRA MOVING INTO COAST FROM KMLB-KSUA THROUGH
15Z. MOIST LOW LEVELS WILL ALLOW FOR LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS WITH
MORNING CU DEVELOPMENT THROUGH 17Z...THOUGH MAY LINGER LONGER AT
COAST.

OTHERWISE MINIMAL RAIN AND STORM CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON WITH ISOLD
SHRA/POSSIBLY TSRA MAINLY WEST OF KSFB-KISM 15Z-19Z. MOST ACTIVITY
MOVES INTO WEST FL AFTER 20Z.

&&

.MARINE...POOR BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE ONGOING CONDITIONS OVER THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WITH MODERATE EAST-
SOUTHEAST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS...OCCASIONALLY A LITTLE MORE GUSTY TO 17-
18 KNOTS. SEAS 3-4 FT WITH PERIODS A ROUGH 4-6 SEC.

&&

.CLIMATE...MLB HAD A RECORD WARM LOW TEMPERATURE (79) YESTERDAY.
THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 76 SET IN 1991. THIS LOW TEMP WAS ALSO
THE THE WARMEST FOR THE MONTH OF MAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME RECORD WARM LOWS AGAIN TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY:

LOC  DATE   HI-MIN
DAB 26-MAY  73 1991
MCO 26-MAY  74 1943
MLB 26-MAY  78 2014
VRB 26-MAY  76 1991

DAB 27-MAY  75 1998
MCO 27-MAY  76 1953
MLB 27-MAY  76 1986
VRB 27-MAY  79 1991

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

MOSES/CRISTALDI




000
FXUS62 KMLB 261317
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
917 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...ROUGH SURF AND HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK CONTINUES...

WITH OCEAN DEATHS OCCURRING ON SUN/MON...AND LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
SURF ZONE CONDITIONS...WILL CARRY A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK.

DEEP AND DRY EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW PREVAILS TODAY AS WE REMAIN ON THE
SOUTH SIDE OF THE DEEP RIDGE TO OUR NORTHEAST OVER THE ATLANTIC.
MORNING SOUNDING SHOWS RATHER ROBUST MID LEVEL INVERSION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE RIDGE WITH PWATS AROUND 1.5"...ALL IN THE LOWER LEVELS.

WHILE THIS IS SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW LOW TOPPED SHOWERS IN ATLANTIC
CLOUD LINES AS WE CURRENTLY SEEING ON RADAR...OVERALL COVERAGE TODAY
WILL REMAIN MINIMAL. A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST SOUTH OF THE CAPE
THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH THE ONGOING CONVERGENCE BAND...WITH
ISOLATED ACTIVITY WEST OF I-4 FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON WITH DIFFUSE SEA BREEZE. WON`T RULE OUT A STORM OR TWO
GIVEN TRENDS FROM PREVIOUS DAYS. ACTIVITY SHIFTS WEST OF THE AREA BY
LATE AFTERNOON.

MAX TEMPS LOOK CLOSE TO NORMAL BUT THE EAST FLOW WILL KEEP MIN TEMPS
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLD ATLC SHRA MOVING INTO COAST FROM KMLB-KSUA THROUGH
15Z. MOIST LOW LEVELS WILL ALLOW FOR LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS WITH
MORNING CU DEVELOPMENT THROUGH 17Z...THOUGH MAY LINGER LONGER AT
COAST.

OTHERWISE MINIMAL RAIN AND STORM CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON WITH ISOLD
SHRA/POSSIBLY TSRA MAINLY WEST OF KSFB-KISM 15Z-19Z. MOST ACTIVITY
MOVES INTO WEST FL AFTER 20Z.

&&

.MARINE...POOR BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE ONGOING CONDITIONS OVER THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WITH MODERATE EAST-
SOUTHEAST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS...OCCASIONALLY A LITTLE MORE GUSTY TO 17-
18 KNOTS. SEAS 3-4 FT WITH PERIODS A ROUGH 4-6 SEC.

&&

.CLIMATE...MLB HAD A RECORD WARM LOW TEMPERATURE (79) YESTERDAY.
THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 76 SET IN 1991. THIS LOW TEMP WAS ALSO
THE THE WARMEST FOR THE MONTH OF MAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME RECORD WARM LOWS AGAIN TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY:

LOC  DATE   HI-MIN
DAB 26-MAY  73 1991
MCO 26-MAY  74 1943
MLB 26-MAY  78 2014
VRB 26-MAY  76 1991

DAB 27-MAY  75 1998
MCO 27-MAY  76 1953
MLB 27-MAY  76 1986
VRB 27-MAY  79 1991

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

MOSES/CRISTALDI





000
FXUS62 KMLB 260838 RRA
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...ROUTINE DELAYED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
333 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...ROUGH SURF AND HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...

TODAY-TONIGHT...
WITH OCEAN DEATHS OCCURRING ON SUN/MON...AND LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
SURF ZONE CONDITIONS...WILL CARRY A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK.

OTHERWISE...THE DRIER AIR THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE ATLANTIC IN
ASSOCIATION WITH SUBSIDENCE FROM MID LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WILL ADVECT
INTO THE LOCAL AREA. PRECIPITABLE WATER ESTIMATES WERE ALREADY
SHOWING VALUES JUST OVER ONE INCH OFFSHORE.

MOS POPS ARE BARELY MENTIONABLE TODAY AND CONFINED TO AREAS WEST
OF I-4 (LAKE AND WESTERN ORANGE COUNTIES). GIVEN RECENT TRENDS...
WILL FOLLOW MOS VALUES AND HAVE 20 PERCENT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR
STORMS THERE THIS AFTERNOON.

WHILE BREEZY LOW LEVEL EAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE
ATLANTIC CLOUD LINES...THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE 10
PERCENT OR LESS. RADAR SUGGESTS THAT A SMALL EARLY MORNING COASTAL
POP MIGHT BE NEEDED SOUTH OF CANAVERAL.

MAX TEMPS LOOK CLOSE TO NORMAL BUT THE EAST FLOW WILL KEEP MIN TEMPS
ABOVE NORMAL. HAVE GONE A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE MOS ALONG THE COAST
TONIGHT.

WED-FRI...
MODELS SHOW A DEEP LAYER OF SUBSTANTIALLY DRIER AIR BETWEEN
850-300MB BUILDING WESTWARD ACROSS THE REGION MID WEEK. THIS WILL
OVERALL KEEP RAIN CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST
THU. HOWEVER MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW FROM HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE
NORTH AND ELEVATED MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS MAY LEAD ISO
ONSHORE MOVING SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS MAINLY ALONG THE COAST IN
THE MORNING AND NIGHTTIME HOURS. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE
POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST UNTIL THU NIGHT/FRI WHEN PW VALUES BEGIN
TO INCREASE MORE SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE EASTERLY FLOW. EVEN THEN
RAIN CHANCES REMAIN LOW...UP TO 20-30 PERCENT BY WEEKS END.

LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK WITH HIGHS
MID-UPPER 80S COAST TO UPPER 80S/AROUND 90 DEGREES INLAND. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY MILD...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST WHERE
TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW THE LOW 70S DUE TO CONTINUED
ONSHORE WINDS.

SAT-MON...
RIDGE TO THE NORTH KEEPS A DEEP EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL FL
WITH MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES INCREASING INTO THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. WX PATTERN WILL FAVOR ISO/SCT ONSHORE MOVING
SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST OVERNIGHT/MORNING WITH INCREASING COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR DURING THE AFTERNOON.
POPS AROUND 30-40 PERCENT SAT/SUN INCREASE TO 30-50 PERCENT MON
WITH GREATEST RAIN CHANCES REMAINING INLAND. TEMPS CONTINUE TO
RANGE AROUND NEAR NORMAL VALUES DURING THE DAY AND NEAR TO ABOVE
NORMAL OVERNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...MOIST LOW LEVELS WILL PRODUCE LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS THIS
MORNING. THEN SOME DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR WILL MOVE IN. THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS WILL BE LOWER TODAY...AS WILL AFTERNOON THUNDER
CHANCES WEST OF INTERSTATE 4.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY-TONIGHT...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL EXTEND FROM
OFFSHORE THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST WEST/SOUTHWEST INTO THE
SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE EASTERLY WIND FLOW
PATTERN. SPEEDS WILL BE 10-15 KNOTS...BUT OCCASIONALLY A LITTLE
MORE GUSTY TO 17-18 KNOTS. THIS WILL GENERATE POOR CONDITIONS FOR
SMALL CRAFT OPERATION...THOUGH JUST BELOW EXERCISE CAUTION
STATEMENT THRESHOLD.

WED-SAT...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MAINTAINS AN OVERALL MODERATE ONSHORE
BREEZE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WIND SPEEDS UP TO AT LEAST 10-15
KNOTS...INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KNOTS AT TIMES. SEAS GENERALLY
REMAIN UP TO 4-5 FEET THROUGH LATE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.CLIMATE...MLB HAD A RECORD WARM LOW TEMPERATURE (79) YESTERDAY.
THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 76 SET IN 1991. THIS LOW TEMP WAS ALSO
THE THE WARMEST FOR THE MONTH OF MAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME RECORD WARM LOWS AGAIN TODAY:

LOC  DATE   HI-MIN
DAB 26-MAY  73 1991
MCO 26-MAY  74 1943
MLB 26-MAY  78 2014
VRB 26-MAY  76 1991

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  86  71  85  72 /  10  10  10  10
MCO  90  71  89  70 /  10  10  10  10
MLB  86  75  85  73 /  10  10  10  10
VRB  87  73  86  72 /  10  10  10  10
LEE  92  72  90  70 /  20  10  10  10
SFB  90  71  89  68 /  10  10  10  10
ORL  90  71  88  70 /  20  10  10  10
FPR  86  73  86  72 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LASCODY
LONG TERM....WEITLICH




000
FXUS62 KMLB 260838 RRA
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...ROUTINE DELAYED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
333 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...ROUGH SURF AND HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...

TODAY-TONIGHT...
WITH OCEAN DEATHS OCCURRING ON SUN/MON...AND LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
SURF ZONE CONDITIONS...WILL CARRY A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK.

OTHERWISE...THE DRIER AIR THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE ATLANTIC IN
ASSOCIATION WITH SUBSIDENCE FROM MID LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WILL ADVECT
INTO THE LOCAL AREA. PRECIPITABLE WATER ESTIMATES WERE ALREADY
SHOWING VALUES JUST OVER ONE INCH OFFSHORE.

MOS POPS ARE BARELY MENTIONABLE TODAY AND CONFINED TO AREAS WEST
OF I-4 (LAKE AND WESTERN ORANGE COUNTIES). GIVEN RECENT TRENDS...
WILL FOLLOW MOS VALUES AND HAVE 20 PERCENT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR
STORMS THERE THIS AFTERNOON.

WHILE BREEZY LOW LEVEL EAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE
ATLANTIC CLOUD LINES...THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE 10
PERCENT OR LESS. RADAR SUGGESTS THAT A SMALL EARLY MORNING COASTAL
POP MIGHT BE NEEDED SOUTH OF CANAVERAL.

MAX TEMPS LOOK CLOSE TO NORMAL BUT THE EAST FLOW WILL KEEP MIN TEMPS
ABOVE NORMAL. HAVE GONE A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE MOS ALONG THE COAST
TONIGHT.

WED-FRI...
MODELS SHOW A DEEP LAYER OF SUBSTANTIALLY DRIER AIR BETWEEN
850-300MB BUILDING WESTWARD ACROSS THE REGION MID WEEK. THIS WILL
OVERALL KEEP RAIN CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST
THU. HOWEVER MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW FROM HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE
NORTH AND ELEVATED MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS MAY LEAD ISO
ONSHORE MOVING SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS MAINLY ALONG THE COAST IN
THE MORNING AND NIGHTTIME HOURS. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE
POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST UNTIL THU NIGHT/FRI WHEN PW VALUES BEGIN
TO INCREASE MORE SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE EASTERLY FLOW. EVEN THEN
RAIN CHANCES REMAIN LOW...UP TO 20-30 PERCENT BY WEEKS END.

LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK WITH HIGHS
MID-UPPER 80S COAST TO UPPER 80S/AROUND 90 DEGREES INLAND. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY MILD...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST WHERE
TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW THE LOW 70S DUE TO CONTINUED
ONSHORE WINDS.

SAT-MON...
RIDGE TO THE NORTH KEEPS A DEEP EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL FL
WITH MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES INCREASING INTO THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. WX PATTERN WILL FAVOR ISO/SCT ONSHORE MOVING
SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST OVERNIGHT/MORNING WITH INCREASING COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR DURING THE AFTERNOON.
POPS AROUND 30-40 PERCENT SAT/SUN INCREASE TO 30-50 PERCENT MON
WITH GREATEST RAIN CHANCES REMAINING INLAND. TEMPS CONTINUE TO
RANGE AROUND NEAR NORMAL VALUES DURING THE DAY AND NEAR TO ABOVE
NORMAL OVERNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...MOIST LOW LEVELS WILL PRODUCE LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS THIS
MORNING. THEN SOME DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR WILL MOVE IN. THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS WILL BE LOWER TODAY...AS WILL AFTERNOON THUNDER
CHANCES WEST OF INTERSTATE 4.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY-TONIGHT...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL EXTEND FROM
OFFSHORE THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST WEST/SOUTHWEST INTO THE
SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE EASTERLY WIND FLOW
PATTERN. SPEEDS WILL BE 10-15 KNOTS...BUT OCCASIONALLY A LITTLE
MORE GUSTY TO 17-18 KNOTS. THIS WILL GENERATE POOR CONDITIONS FOR
SMALL CRAFT OPERATION...THOUGH JUST BELOW EXERCISE CAUTION
STATEMENT THRESHOLD.

WED-SAT...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MAINTAINS AN OVERALL MODERATE ONSHORE
BREEZE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WIND SPEEDS UP TO AT LEAST 10-15
KNOTS...INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KNOTS AT TIMES. SEAS GENERALLY
REMAIN UP TO 4-5 FEET THROUGH LATE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.CLIMATE...MLB HAD A RECORD WARM LOW TEMPERATURE (79) YESTERDAY.
THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 76 SET IN 1991. THIS LOW TEMP WAS ALSO
THE THE WARMEST FOR THE MONTH OF MAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME RECORD WARM LOWS AGAIN TODAY:

LOC  DATE   HI-MIN
DAB 26-MAY  73 1991
MCO 26-MAY  74 1943
MLB 26-MAY  78 2014
VRB 26-MAY  76 1991

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  86  71  85  72 /  10  10  10  10
MCO  90  71  89  70 /  10  10  10  10
MLB  86  75  85  73 /  10  10  10  10
VRB  87  73  86  72 /  10  10  10  10
LEE  92  72  90  70 /  20  10  10  10
SFB  90  71  89  68 /  10  10  10  10
ORL  90  71  88  70 /  20  10  10  10
FPR  86  73  86  72 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LASCODY
LONG TERM....WEITLICH





000
FXUS62 KMLB 260838 RRA
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...ROUTINE DELAYED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
333 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...ROUGH SURF AND HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...

TODAY-TONIGHT...
WITH OCEAN DEATHS OCCURRING ON SUN/MON...AND LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
SURF ZONE CONDITIONS...WILL CARRY A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK.

OTHERWISE...THE DRIER AIR THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE ATLANTIC IN
ASSOCIATION WITH SUBSIDENCE FROM MID LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WILL ADVECT
INTO THE LOCAL AREA. PRECIPITABLE WATER ESTIMATES WERE ALREADY
SHOWING VALUES JUST OVER ONE INCH OFFSHORE.

MOS POPS ARE BARELY MENTIONABLE TODAY AND CONFINED TO AREAS WEST
OF I-4 (LAKE AND WESTERN ORANGE COUNTIES). GIVEN RECENT TRENDS...
WILL FOLLOW MOS VALUES AND HAVE 20 PERCENT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR
STORMS THERE THIS AFTERNOON.

WHILE BREEZY LOW LEVEL EAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE
ATLANTIC CLOUD LINES...THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE 10
PERCENT OR LESS. RADAR SUGGESTS THAT A SMALL EARLY MORNING COASTAL
POP MIGHT BE NEEDED SOUTH OF CANAVERAL.

MAX TEMPS LOOK CLOSE TO NORMAL BUT THE EAST FLOW WILL KEEP MIN TEMPS
ABOVE NORMAL. HAVE GONE A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE MOS ALONG THE COAST
TONIGHT.

WED-FRI...
MODELS SHOW A DEEP LAYER OF SUBSTANTIALLY DRIER AIR BETWEEN
850-300MB BUILDING WESTWARD ACROSS THE REGION MID WEEK. THIS WILL
OVERALL KEEP RAIN CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST
THU. HOWEVER MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW FROM HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE
NORTH AND ELEVATED MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS MAY LEAD ISO
ONSHORE MOVING SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS MAINLY ALONG THE COAST IN
THE MORNING AND NIGHTTIME HOURS. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE
POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST UNTIL THU NIGHT/FRI WHEN PW VALUES BEGIN
TO INCREASE MORE SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE EASTERLY FLOW. EVEN THEN
RAIN CHANCES REMAIN LOW...UP TO 20-30 PERCENT BY WEEKS END.

LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK WITH HIGHS
MID-UPPER 80S COAST TO UPPER 80S/AROUND 90 DEGREES INLAND. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY MILD...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST WHERE
TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW THE LOW 70S DUE TO CONTINUED
ONSHORE WINDS.

SAT-MON...
RIDGE TO THE NORTH KEEPS A DEEP EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL FL
WITH MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES INCREASING INTO THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. WX PATTERN WILL FAVOR ISO/SCT ONSHORE MOVING
SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST OVERNIGHT/MORNING WITH INCREASING COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR DURING THE AFTERNOON.
POPS AROUND 30-40 PERCENT SAT/SUN INCREASE TO 30-50 PERCENT MON
WITH GREATEST RAIN CHANCES REMAINING INLAND. TEMPS CONTINUE TO
RANGE AROUND NEAR NORMAL VALUES DURING THE DAY AND NEAR TO ABOVE
NORMAL OVERNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...MOIST LOW LEVELS WILL PRODUCE LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS THIS
MORNING. THEN SOME DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR WILL MOVE IN. THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS WILL BE LOWER TODAY...AS WILL AFTERNOON THUNDER
CHANCES WEST OF INTERSTATE 4.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY-TONIGHT...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL EXTEND FROM
OFFSHORE THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST WEST/SOUTHWEST INTO THE
SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE EASTERLY WIND FLOW
PATTERN. SPEEDS WILL BE 10-15 KNOTS...BUT OCCASIONALLY A LITTLE
MORE GUSTY TO 17-18 KNOTS. THIS WILL GENERATE POOR CONDITIONS FOR
SMALL CRAFT OPERATION...THOUGH JUST BELOW EXERCISE CAUTION
STATEMENT THRESHOLD.

WED-SAT...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MAINTAINS AN OVERALL MODERATE ONSHORE
BREEZE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WIND SPEEDS UP TO AT LEAST 10-15
KNOTS...INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KNOTS AT TIMES. SEAS GENERALLY
REMAIN UP TO 4-5 FEET THROUGH LATE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.CLIMATE...MLB HAD A RECORD WARM LOW TEMPERATURE (79) YESTERDAY.
THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 76 SET IN 1991. THIS LOW TEMP WAS ALSO
THE THE WARMEST FOR THE MONTH OF MAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME RECORD WARM LOWS AGAIN TODAY:

LOC  DATE   HI-MIN
DAB 26-MAY  73 1991
MCO 26-MAY  74 1943
MLB 26-MAY  78 2014
VRB 26-MAY  76 1991

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  86  71  85  72 /  10  10  10  10
MCO  90  71  89  70 /  10  10  10  10
MLB  86  75  85  73 /  10  10  10  10
VRB  87  73  86  72 /  10  10  10  10
LEE  92  72  90  70 /  20  10  10  10
SFB  90  71  89  68 /  10  10  10  10
ORL  90  71  88  70 /  20  10  10  10
FPR  86  73  86  72 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LASCODY
LONG TERM....WEITLICH





000
FXUS62 KMLB 260838 RRA
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...ROUTINE DELAYED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
333 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...ROUGH SURF AND HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...

TODAY-TONIGHT...
WITH OCEAN DEATHS OCCURRING ON SUN/MON...AND LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
SURF ZONE CONDITIONS...WILL CARRY A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK.

OTHERWISE...THE DRIER AIR THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE ATLANTIC IN
ASSOCIATION WITH SUBSIDENCE FROM MID LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WILL ADVECT
INTO THE LOCAL AREA. PRECIPITABLE WATER ESTIMATES WERE ALREADY
SHOWING VALUES JUST OVER ONE INCH OFFSHORE.

MOS POPS ARE BARELY MENTIONABLE TODAY AND CONFINED TO AREAS WEST
OF I-4 (LAKE AND WESTERN ORANGE COUNTIES). GIVEN RECENT TRENDS...
WILL FOLLOW MOS VALUES AND HAVE 20 PERCENT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR
STORMS THERE THIS AFTERNOON.

WHILE BREEZY LOW LEVEL EAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE
ATLANTIC CLOUD LINES...THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE 10
PERCENT OR LESS. RADAR SUGGESTS THAT A SMALL EARLY MORNING COASTAL
POP MIGHT BE NEEDED SOUTH OF CANAVERAL.

MAX TEMPS LOOK CLOSE TO NORMAL BUT THE EAST FLOW WILL KEEP MIN TEMPS
ABOVE NORMAL. HAVE GONE A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE MOS ALONG THE COAST
TONIGHT.

WED-FRI...
MODELS SHOW A DEEP LAYER OF SUBSTANTIALLY DRIER AIR BETWEEN
850-300MB BUILDING WESTWARD ACROSS THE REGION MID WEEK. THIS WILL
OVERALL KEEP RAIN CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST
THU. HOWEVER MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW FROM HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE
NORTH AND ELEVATED MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS MAY LEAD ISO
ONSHORE MOVING SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS MAINLY ALONG THE COAST IN
THE MORNING AND NIGHTTIME HOURS. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE
POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST UNTIL THU NIGHT/FRI WHEN PW VALUES BEGIN
TO INCREASE MORE SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE EASTERLY FLOW. EVEN THEN
RAIN CHANCES REMAIN LOW...UP TO 20-30 PERCENT BY WEEKS END.

LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK WITH HIGHS
MID-UPPER 80S COAST TO UPPER 80S/AROUND 90 DEGREES INLAND. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY MILD...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST WHERE
TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW THE LOW 70S DUE TO CONTINUED
ONSHORE WINDS.

SAT-MON...
RIDGE TO THE NORTH KEEPS A DEEP EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL FL
WITH MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES INCREASING INTO THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. WX PATTERN WILL FAVOR ISO/SCT ONSHORE MOVING
SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST OVERNIGHT/MORNING WITH INCREASING COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR DURING THE AFTERNOON.
POPS AROUND 30-40 PERCENT SAT/SUN INCREASE TO 30-50 PERCENT MON
WITH GREATEST RAIN CHANCES REMAINING INLAND. TEMPS CONTINUE TO
RANGE AROUND NEAR NORMAL VALUES DURING THE DAY AND NEAR TO ABOVE
NORMAL OVERNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...MOIST LOW LEVELS WILL PRODUCE LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS THIS
MORNING. THEN SOME DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR WILL MOVE IN. THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS WILL BE LOWER TODAY...AS WILL AFTERNOON THUNDER
CHANCES WEST OF INTERSTATE 4.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY-TONIGHT...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL EXTEND FROM
OFFSHORE THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST WEST/SOUTHWEST INTO THE
SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE EASTERLY WIND FLOW
PATTERN. SPEEDS WILL BE 10-15 KNOTS...BUT OCCASIONALLY A LITTLE
MORE GUSTY TO 17-18 KNOTS. THIS WILL GENERATE POOR CONDITIONS FOR
SMALL CRAFT OPERATION...THOUGH JUST BELOW EXERCISE CAUTION
STATEMENT THRESHOLD.

WED-SAT...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MAINTAINS AN OVERALL MODERATE ONSHORE
BREEZE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WIND SPEEDS UP TO AT LEAST 10-15
KNOTS...INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KNOTS AT TIMES. SEAS GENERALLY
REMAIN UP TO 4-5 FEET THROUGH LATE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.CLIMATE...MLB HAD A RECORD WARM LOW TEMPERATURE (79) YESTERDAY.
THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 76 SET IN 1991. THIS LOW TEMP WAS ALSO
THE THE WARMEST FOR THE MONTH OF MAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME RECORD WARM LOWS AGAIN TODAY:

LOC  DATE   HI-MIN
DAB 26-MAY  73 1991
MCO 26-MAY  74 1943
MLB 26-MAY  78 2014
VRB 26-MAY  76 1991

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  86  71  85  72 /  10  10  10  10
MCO  90  71  89  70 /  10  10  10  10
MLB  86  75  85  73 /  10  10  10  10
VRB  87  73  86  72 /  10  10  10  10
LEE  92  72  90  70 /  20  10  10  10
SFB  90  71  89  68 /  10  10  10  10
ORL  90  71  88  70 /  20  10  10  10
FPR  86  73  86  72 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LASCODY
LONG TERM....WEITLICH




000
FXUS62 KMLB 260103
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
900 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE HI PRES RIDGE WHICH HAS DOMINATED THE LCL WX PATTERN FOR THE
PAST FEW DAYS HAS MOVED INTO THE W ATLC WHERE IT WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN
AND MODIFY. EVEN SO...LCL PGRAD REMAINS TIGHT ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN A
DEEP AND STEADY E/SE FLOW THAT WILL KEEP MIN TEMPS IN THE L/M70S
INTERIOR...M/U70S ALONG THE COAST.

LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS A BAND OF ENHANCED H100-H85 MOISTURE SPANNING
THE  BAHAMA BANK AND EXTENDING INTO S FL WITH MEAN RH VALUES BTWN
80-90PCT. EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LOW LVL E/SE FLOW...THE MOISTURE IS
COMBINING WITH WAKE VORTICIES DOWNWIND OF THE BAHAMAS TO GENERATE A
PERSISTENT STREAMER OF SHRAS THAT WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE
TREASURE COAST WELL INTO THE EVNG. RADAR SHOWS MAX TOPS ARE REACHING
UP TO 35-40KFT AS THEY TREK OVER THE WARM GULF STREAM WATERS...BUT
WEAK MID LVL VORTICITY AND A CONVERGENT UPR LVL HAVE BEEN CHOKING
THEM OFF QUICKLY ONCE THEY MOVE OVER THE COOLER SHELF WATERS. A FEW
HAVE SURVIVED AS FAR INLAND AS BLUE CYPRESS LAKE IN W INDIAN RIVER
CO...BUT NONE HAVE MADE IT INTO THE INTERIOR COUNTIES.

WITH POOR DYNAMIC SUPPORT AND WINDS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY THRU
THE H100-H70 LYR...ANY SHRA ACTIVITY WILL BE LIMITED TO THE COASTAL
COUNTIES. GIVEN THE EXPANSE OF THE LOW LVL MOISTURE AND THE RADAR
TREND OVER THE PAST FEW HRS...WILL INCREASE POPS ALONG THE TREASURE
COAST TO 30PCT. REMAINDER OF THE FCST LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.AVIATION...THRU 26/18Z
SFC WINDS: THRU 26/06Z...E/SE DIMINISHING TO 4-8KTS...CONTG THRU
26/12Z. BTWN 26/12Z-26/15Z...E/SE INCREASING TO 9-14KTS. AFT
26/15...E/SE INCREASING TO 11-16KTS WITH SFC G21-24KTS.

VSBYS/WX/CIGS: THRU 26/12...ISOLD MVFR/BRIEF IFR SHRAS COASTAL SITES
S OF KTIX. BTWN 26/12Z-26/16Z...ISOLD MVFR SHRAS E OF KOMN-KOBE. AFT
25/16Z... ISOLD MVFR SHRAS/IFR TSRAS SHIFTING E OF KOMN-KOBE...
ENDING COASTAL SITES.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST BUOY/C-MAN STATIONS SHOW OVERALL CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED
SLIGHTLY WITH SUSTAINED SFC WINDS ARND 15KTS...SEAS ARND 4FT. HI
PRES RIDGE WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY OVR THE W ATLC OVERNIGHT THAT WILL
ALLOW CURRENT CONDITIONS TO HOLD STEADY WITH A GENTLE TO MODERATE
E/SE BREEZE PREVAILING. INCOMING SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SEAS IN
THE 3-4FT RANGE...UP TO 5FT IN THE GULF STREAM.

WHILE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR SMALL CRAFT
OPERATION...OVERALL CONDITIONS DO NOT MEET CRITERIA FOR CAUTIONARY
STATEMENTS. WILL ADDRESS CONDITIONS IN THE SYNOPSIS.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD WARM LOWS FOR TODAY/TOMORROW.

LOC  DATE   HI-MIN      TODAY`S MIN (AS OF 9PM)
DAB 25-MAY  75 1991  74
MCO 25-MAY  74 2014  71
MLB 25-MAY  76 1991  79
VRB 25-MAY  77 1991  77

DAB 26-MAY  73 1991
MCO 26-MAY  74 1943
MLB 26-MAY  78 2014
VRB 26-MAY  76 1991

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...BRAGAW
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...KELLY





000
FXUS62 KMLB 260103
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
900 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE HI PRES RIDGE WHICH HAS DOMINATED THE LCL WX PATTERN FOR THE
PAST FEW DAYS HAS MOVED INTO THE W ATLC WHERE IT WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN
AND MODIFY. EVEN SO...LCL PGRAD REMAINS TIGHT ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN A
DEEP AND STEADY E/SE FLOW THAT WILL KEEP MIN TEMPS IN THE L/M70S
INTERIOR...M/U70S ALONG THE COAST.

LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS A BAND OF ENHANCED H100-H85 MOISTURE SPANNING
THE  BAHAMA BANK AND EXTENDING INTO S FL WITH MEAN RH VALUES BTWN
80-90PCT. EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LOW LVL E/SE FLOW...THE MOISTURE IS
COMBINING WITH WAKE VORTICIES DOWNWIND OF THE BAHAMAS TO GENERATE A
PERSISTENT STREAMER OF SHRAS THAT WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE
TREASURE COAST WELL INTO THE EVNG. RADAR SHOWS MAX TOPS ARE REACHING
UP TO 35-40KFT AS THEY TREK OVER THE WARM GULF STREAM WATERS...BUT
WEAK MID LVL VORTICITY AND A CONVERGENT UPR LVL HAVE BEEN CHOKING
THEM OFF QUICKLY ONCE THEY MOVE OVER THE COOLER SHELF WATERS. A FEW
HAVE SURVIVED AS FAR INLAND AS BLUE CYPRESS LAKE IN W INDIAN RIVER
CO...BUT NONE HAVE MADE IT INTO THE INTERIOR COUNTIES.

WITH POOR DYNAMIC SUPPORT AND WINDS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY THRU
THE H100-H70 LYR...ANY SHRA ACTIVITY WILL BE LIMITED TO THE COASTAL
COUNTIES. GIVEN THE EXPANSE OF THE LOW LVL MOISTURE AND THE RADAR
TREND OVER THE PAST FEW HRS...WILL INCREASE POPS ALONG THE TREASURE
COAST TO 30PCT. REMAINDER OF THE FCST LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.AVIATION...THRU 26/18Z
SFC WINDS: THRU 26/06Z...E/SE DIMINISHING TO 4-8KTS...CONTG THRU
26/12Z. BTWN 26/12Z-26/15Z...E/SE INCREASING TO 9-14KTS. AFT
26/15...E/SE INCREASING TO 11-16KTS WITH SFC G21-24KTS.

VSBYS/WX/CIGS: THRU 26/12...ISOLD MVFR/BRIEF IFR SHRAS COASTAL SITES
S OF KTIX. BTWN 26/12Z-26/16Z...ISOLD MVFR SHRAS E OF KOMN-KOBE. AFT
25/16Z... ISOLD MVFR SHRAS/IFR TSRAS SHIFTING E OF KOMN-KOBE...
ENDING COASTAL SITES.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST BUOY/C-MAN STATIONS SHOW OVERALL CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED
SLIGHTLY WITH SUSTAINED SFC WINDS ARND 15KTS...SEAS ARND 4FT. HI
PRES RIDGE WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY OVR THE W ATLC OVERNIGHT THAT WILL
ALLOW CURRENT CONDITIONS TO HOLD STEADY WITH A GENTLE TO MODERATE
E/SE BREEZE PREVAILING. INCOMING SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SEAS IN
THE 3-4FT RANGE...UP TO 5FT IN THE GULF STREAM.

WHILE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR SMALL CRAFT
OPERATION...OVERALL CONDITIONS DO NOT MEET CRITERIA FOR CAUTIONARY
STATEMENTS. WILL ADDRESS CONDITIONS IN THE SYNOPSIS.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD WARM LOWS FOR TODAY/TOMORROW.

LOC  DATE   HI-MIN      TODAY`S MIN (AS OF 9PM)
DAB 25-MAY  75 1991  74
MCO 25-MAY  74 2014  71
MLB 25-MAY  76 1991  79
VRB 25-MAY  77 1991  77

DAB 26-MAY  73 1991
MCO 26-MAY  74 1943
MLB 26-MAY  78 2014
VRB 26-MAY  76 1991

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...BRAGAW
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...KELLY




000
FXUS62 KMLB 260103
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
900 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE HI PRES RIDGE WHICH HAS DOMINATED THE LCL WX PATTERN FOR THE
PAST FEW DAYS HAS MOVED INTO THE W ATLC WHERE IT WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN
AND MODIFY. EVEN SO...LCL PGRAD REMAINS TIGHT ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN A
DEEP AND STEADY E/SE FLOW THAT WILL KEEP MIN TEMPS IN THE L/M70S
INTERIOR...M/U70S ALONG THE COAST.

LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS A BAND OF ENHANCED H100-H85 MOISTURE SPANNING
THE  BAHAMA BANK AND EXTENDING INTO S FL WITH MEAN RH VALUES BTWN
80-90PCT. EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LOW LVL E/SE FLOW...THE MOISTURE IS
COMBINING WITH WAKE VORTICIES DOWNWIND OF THE BAHAMAS TO GENERATE A
PERSISTENT STREAMER OF SHRAS THAT WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE
TREASURE COAST WELL INTO THE EVNG. RADAR SHOWS MAX TOPS ARE REACHING
UP TO 35-40KFT AS THEY TREK OVER THE WARM GULF STREAM WATERS...BUT
WEAK MID LVL VORTICITY AND A CONVERGENT UPR LVL HAVE BEEN CHOKING
THEM OFF QUICKLY ONCE THEY MOVE OVER THE COOLER SHELF WATERS. A FEW
HAVE SURVIVED AS FAR INLAND AS BLUE CYPRESS LAKE IN W INDIAN RIVER
CO...BUT NONE HAVE MADE IT INTO THE INTERIOR COUNTIES.

WITH POOR DYNAMIC SUPPORT AND WINDS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY THRU
THE H100-H70 LYR...ANY SHRA ACTIVITY WILL BE LIMITED TO THE COASTAL
COUNTIES. GIVEN THE EXPANSE OF THE LOW LVL MOISTURE AND THE RADAR
TREND OVER THE PAST FEW HRS...WILL INCREASE POPS ALONG THE TREASURE
COAST TO 30PCT. REMAINDER OF THE FCST LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.AVIATION...THRU 26/18Z
SFC WINDS: THRU 26/06Z...E/SE DIMINISHING TO 4-8KTS...CONTG THRU
26/12Z. BTWN 26/12Z-26/15Z...E/SE INCREASING TO 9-14KTS. AFT
26/15...E/SE INCREASING TO 11-16KTS WITH SFC G21-24KTS.

VSBYS/WX/CIGS: THRU 26/12...ISOLD MVFR/BRIEF IFR SHRAS COASTAL SITES
S OF KTIX. BTWN 26/12Z-26/16Z...ISOLD MVFR SHRAS E OF KOMN-KOBE. AFT
25/16Z... ISOLD MVFR SHRAS/IFR TSRAS SHIFTING E OF KOMN-KOBE...
ENDING COASTAL SITES.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST BUOY/C-MAN STATIONS SHOW OVERALL CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED
SLIGHTLY WITH SUSTAINED SFC WINDS ARND 15KTS...SEAS ARND 4FT. HI
PRES RIDGE WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY OVR THE W ATLC OVERNIGHT THAT WILL
ALLOW CURRENT CONDITIONS TO HOLD STEADY WITH A GENTLE TO MODERATE
E/SE BREEZE PREVAILING. INCOMING SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SEAS IN
THE 3-4FT RANGE...UP TO 5FT IN THE GULF STREAM.

WHILE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR SMALL CRAFT
OPERATION...OVERALL CONDITIONS DO NOT MEET CRITERIA FOR CAUTIONARY
STATEMENTS. WILL ADDRESS CONDITIONS IN THE SYNOPSIS.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD WARM LOWS FOR TODAY/TOMORROW.

LOC  DATE   HI-MIN      TODAY`S MIN (AS OF 9PM)
DAB 25-MAY  75 1991  74
MCO 25-MAY  74 2014  71
MLB 25-MAY  76 1991  79
VRB 25-MAY  77 1991  77

DAB 26-MAY  73 1991
MCO 26-MAY  74 1943
MLB 26-MAY  78 2014
VRB 26-MAY  76 1991

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...BRAGAW
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...KELLY





000
FXUS62 KMLB 260103
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
900 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE HI PRES RIDGE WHICH HAS DOMINATED THE LCL WX PATTERN FOR THE
PAST FEW DAYS HAS MOVED INTO THE W ATLC WHERE IT WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN
AND MODIFY. EVEN SO...LCL PGRAD REMAINS TIGHT ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN A
DEEP AND STEADY E/SE FLOW THAT WILL KEEP MIN TEMPS IN THE L/M70S
INTERIOR...M/U70S ALONG THE COAST.

LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS A BAND OF ENHANCED H100-H85 MOISTURE SPANNING
THE  BAHAMA BANK AND EXTENDING INTO S FL WITH MEAN RH VALUES BTWN
80-90PCT. EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LOW LVL E/SE FLOW...THE MOISTURE IS
COMBINING WITH WAKE VORTICIES DOWNWIND OF THE BAHAMAS TO GENERATE A
PERSISTENT STREAMER OF SHRAS THAT WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE
TREASURE COAST WELL INTO THE EVNG. RADAR SHOWS MAX TOPS ARE REACHING
UP TO 35-40KFT AS THEY TREK OVER THE WARM GULF STREAM WATERS...BUT
WEAK MID LVL VORTICITY AND A CONVERGENT UPR LVL HAVE BEEN CHOKING
THEM OFF QUICKLY ONCE THEY MOVE OVER THE COOLER SHELF WATERS. A FEW
HAVE SURVIVED AS FAR INLAND AS BLUE CYPRESS LAKE IN W INDIAN RIVER
CO...BUT NONE HAVE MADE IT INTO THE INTERIOR COUNTIES.

WITH POOR DYNAMIC SUPPORT AND WINDS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY THRU
THE H100-H70 LYR...ANY SHRA ACTIVITY WILL BE LIMITED TO THE COASTAL
COUNTIES. GIVEN THE EXPANSE OF THE LOW LVL MOISTURE AND THE RADAR
TREND OVER THE PAST FEW HRS...WILL INCREASE POPS ALONG THE TREASURE
COAST TO 30PCT. REMAINDER OF THE FCST LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.AVIATION...THRU 26/18Z
SFC WINDS: THRU 26/06Z...E/SE DIMINISHING TO 4-8KTS...CONTG THRU
26/12Z. BTWN 26/12Z-26/15Z...E/SE INCREASING TO 9-14KTS. AFT
26/15...E/SE INCREASING TO 11-16KTS WITH SFC G21-24KTS.

VSBYS/WX/CIGS: THRU 26/12...ISOLD MVFR/BRIEF IFR SHRAS COASTAL SITES
S OF KTIX. BTWN 26/12Z-26/16Z...ISOLD MVFR SHRAS E OF KOMN-KOBE. AFT
25/16Z... ISOLD MVFR SHRAS/IFR TSRAS SHIFTING E OF KOMN-KOBE...
ENDING COASTAL SITES.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST BUOY/C-MAN STATIONS SHOW OVERALL CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED
SLIGHTLY WITH SUSTAINED SFC WINDS ARND 15KTS...SEAS ARND 4FT. HI
PRES RIDGE WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY OVR THE W ATLC OVERNIGHT THAT WILL
ALLOW CURRENT CONDITIONS TO HOLD STEADY WITH A GENTLE TO MODERATE
E/SE BREEZE PREVAILING. INCOMING SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SEAS IN
THE 3-4FT RANGE...UP TO 5FT IN THE GULF STREAM.

WHILE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR SMALL CRAFT
OPERATION...OVERALL CONDITIONS DO NOT MEET CRITERIA FOR CAUTIONARY
STATEMENTS. WILL ADDRESS CONDITIONS IN THE SYNOPSIS.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD WARM LOWS FOR TODAY/TOMORROW.

LOC  DATE   HI-MIN      TODAY`S MIN (AS OF 9PM)
DAB 25-MAY  75 1991  74
MCO 25-MAY  74 2014  71
MLB 25-MAY  76 1991  79
VRB 25-MAY  77 1991  77

DAB 26-MAY  73 1991
MCO 26-MAY  74 1943
MLB 26-MAY  78 2014
VRB 26-MAY  76 1991

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...BRAGAW
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...KELLY




000
FXUS62 KMLB 251859
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
255 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...

THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...DRIER AIRMASS HAS BEEN SUCCESSFUL THIS
AFTERNOON AS COVERAGE HAS  REMAINED ISOLATED ALONG THE DIFFUSE EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE. RADAR AND SATELLITE SHOW BEST CONVERGENCE HAS MORE
OR LESS ALREADY PUSHED WEST OF THE AREA WITH PERHAPS A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS NEAR KISSIMMEE RIVER AND LAKE COUNTY THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.

GIVEN THE DIFFUSE NATURE OF THE SEA BREEZE SUPPRESSION BEHIND IT IS
MINIMAL. A FEW ATLANTIC SHOWERS MAY REACH THE COAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT EXPECT OVERALL COVERAGE TO BE
LOWER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS.

ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS MILD WITH MID-
UPPER 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SPACE AND TREASURE COASTS AND LOW-MID
70S ELSEWHERE.

TUESDAY...ANOTHER DAY...MORE DEEP AND DRY EASTERLY FLOW. SYNOPTIC
PATTERN CHANGES LITTLE INTO TUESDAY AS WE REMAIN ON THE SOUTH SIDE
OF THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND UNDERNEATH THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.

MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW AN EVEN DRIER AIRMASS...SO EXPECT MORNING
ATLANTIC SHOWERS TO BE LIMITED. COVERAGE REMAINS ISOLATED THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON WITH A DIFFUSE INLAND MOVING SEA BREEZE...PERHAPS
BECOMING WIDELY SCATTERED AS ACTIVITY REACHES THE KISSIMMEE RIVER
AND LAKE COUNTY. WON`T RULE OUT A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO WITH
ACTIVITY OVER THE INTERIOR SO WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF THUNDER FOR
THE EARLY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE WE WILL SEE THE MAJORITY OF ACTIVITY
WEST OF THE REGION BY MID AFTERNOON AS WITH THE PAST FEW DAYS.

HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST AND LOW 90S INLAND.

...PREVIOUS EXTENDED DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

TUE NIGHT-THU NIGHT...AXIS OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE
ATLANTIC WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION AND MAINTAIN A MODERATE TO
BREEZY ONSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. EASTERLY WINDS TAP
INTO DRIER MID LEVEL AIR OVER THE ATLANTIC THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION AND DECREASE RAIN CHANCES THROUGH MID WEEK. MAINTAINED DRY
CONDITIONS WED-THU AS PW VALUES CONTINUE TO DECREASE. WHILE A FEW
ONSHORE MOVING LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES MAINLY DURING THE NIGHT HOURS
NOT ENTIRELY OUT OF THE QUESTION...POPS REMAIN LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP
OUT OF THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

ELEVATED ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP HIGHS NEAR SEASONAL NORMS AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS MORE MILD ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID-UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST TO UPPER 80S-LOW 90S
INTERIOR. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

FRI-MON...MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT FROM LATE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NORTH OF THE REGION CONTINUING
AN ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY
BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA WITH POPS INCREASING CLOSER TO NORMAL...UP
TO 30-40 PERCENT DURING THE WEEKEND. NOT MUCH OF A CHANGE IN TEMPS
WITH HIGHS NEAR NORMAL AND OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION... ISOLD SHRA/TSRA WEST OF KLEE-KORL-KMCO-KISM PUSHING
INTO WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AFTER 20Z. ISOLD ATLC SHRA AFFECTING
COASTAL SITES SOUTH OF KTIX THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH LOWER COVERAGE
THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS. TEMPO MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE IN/NEAR ANY SHOWERS
AND ALONG COAST. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20KTS CONTINUE THROUGH
AFTERNOON...MAINLY ALONG COAST.

DRIER AIR LEADS TO LOWER COVERAGE ON TUES. SIMILAR PATTERN WITH
ISOLD SHRA TRANSLATING INLAND AFTER 15Z...POSSIBLY FOR STORM OR TWO
NEAR KMCO/KLEE...BEFORE MOST CONVECTION SHIFTS WEST OF AREA AFTER
20Z.

&&

.MARINE...TONIGHT-TUESDAY...LOCAL ATLANTIC REMAINS CHOPPY AS EAST-
SOUTHEAST WINDS REMAIN STEADY NEAR 15KTS...OCCASIONALLY 15-20KTS AT
TIMES. SEAS CONTINUING 3-5 FEET OVER MOST OF THE WATERS WITH UP TO 6
FEET AT TIMES IN THE GULF STREAM.

POOR CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT OPERATION WILL CONTINUE.  EXERCISE
CAUTION STATEMENTS REMAIN NECESSARY ESPECIALLY OVER THE GULF STREAM.

WED-SAT...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING NORTH OF THE REGION WILL
MAINTAIN A MODERATE ONSHORE BREEZE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK WITH WIND
SPEEDS GENERALLY 10-15 KNOTS INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KNOTS AT TIMES
OFFSHORE. SEAS GENERALLY IN THE 3-5FT RANGE.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD WARM LOWS FOR TODAY/TOMORROW.

LOC  DATE   HI-MIN
DAB 25-MAY  75 1991
MCO 25-MAY  74 2014
MLB 25-MAY  76 1991
VRB 25-MAY  77 1991

DAB 26-MAY  73 1991
MCO 26-MAY  74 1943
MLB 26-MAY  78 2014
VRB 26-MAY  76 1991

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  74  86  73  84 /  10  10  10  10
MCO  73  91  71  89 /  10  20  10  10
MLB  78  88  75  84 /  20  20  10  10
VRB  75  87  74  85 /  20  20  10  10
LEE  75  92  71  90 /  10  20  10  10
SFB  73  91  70  88 /  10  20  10  10
ORL  73  90  71  89 /  10  20  10  10
FPR  75  88  74  85 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...MOSES
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX....CRISTALDI





000
FXUS62 KMLB 251859
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
255 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...

THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...DRIER AIRMASS HAS BEEN SUCCESSFUL THIS
AFTERNOON AS COVERAGE HAS  REMAINED ISOLATED ALONG THE DIFFUSE EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE. RADAR AND SATELLITE SHOW BEST CONVERGENCE HAS MORE
OR LESS ALREADY PUSHED WEST OF THE AREA WITH PERHAPS A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS NEAR KISSIMMEE RIVER AND LAKE COUNTY THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.

GIVEN THE DIFFUSE NATURE OF THE SEA BREEZE SUPPRESSION BEHIND IT IS
MINIMAL. A FEW ATLANTIC SHOWERS MAY REACH THE COAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT EXPECT OVERALL COVERAGE TO BE
LOWER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS.

ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS MILD WITH MID-
UPPER 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SPACE AND TREASURE COASTS AND LOW-MID
70S ELSEWHERE.

TUESDAY...ANOTHER DAY...MORE DEEP AND DRY EASTERLY FLOW. SYNOPTIC
PATTERN CHANGES LITTLE INTO TUESDAY AS WE REMAIN ON THE SOUTH SIDE
OF THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND UNDERNEATH THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.

MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW AN EVEN DRIER AIRMASS...SO EXPECT MORNING
ATLANTIC SHOWERS TO BE LIMITED. COVERAGE REMAINS ISOLATED THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON WITH A DIFFUSE INLAND MOVING SEA BREEZE...PERHAPS
BECOMING WIDELY SCATTERED AS ACTIVITY REACHES THE KISSIMMEE RIVER
AND LAKE COUNTY. WON`T RULE OUT A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO WITH
ACTIVITY OVER THE INTERIOR SO WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF THUNDER FOR
THE EARLY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE WE WILL SEE THE MAJORITY OF ACTIVITY
WEST OF THE REGION BY MID AFTERNOON AS WITH THE PAST FEW DAYS.

HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST AND LOW 90S INLAND.

...PREVIOUS EXTENDED DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

TUE NIGHT-THU NIGHT...AXIS OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE
ATLANTIC WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION AND MAINTAIN A MODERATE TO
BREEZY ONSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. EASTERLY WINDS TAP
INTO DRIER MID LEVEL AIR OVER THE ATLANTIC THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION AND DECREASE RAIN CHANCES THROUGH MID WEEK. MAINTAINED DRY
CONDITIONS WED-THU AS PW VALUES CONTINUE TO DECREASE. WHILE A FEW
ONSHORE MOVING LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES MAINLY DURING THE NIGHT HOURS
NOT ENTIRELY OUT OF THE QUESTION...POPS REMAIN LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP
OUT OF THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

ELEVATED ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP HIGHS NEAR SEASONAL NORMS AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS MORE MILD ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID-UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST TO UPPER 80S-LOW 90S
INTERIOR. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

FRI-MON...MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT FROM LATE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NORTH OF THE REGION CONTINUING
AN ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY
BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA WITH POPS INCREASING CLOSER TO NORMAL...UP
TO 30-40 PERCENT DURING THE WEEKEND. NOT MUCH OF A CHANGE IN TEMPS
WITH HIGHS NEAR NORMAL AND OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION... ISOLD SHRA/TSRA WEST OF KLEE-KORL-KMCO-KISM PUSHING
INTO WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AFTER 20Z. ISOLD ATLC SHRA AFFECTING
COASTAL SITES SOUTH OF KTIX THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH LOWER COVERAGE
THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS. TEMPO MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE IN/NEAR ANY SHOWERS
AND ALONG COAST. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20KTS CONTINUE THROUGH
AFTERNOON...MAINLY ALONG COAST.

DRIER AIR LEADS TO LOWER COVERAGE ON TUES. SIMILAR PATTERN WITH
ISOLD SHRA TRANSLATING INLAND AFTER 15Z...POSSIBLY FOR STORM OR TWO
NEAR KMCO/KLEE...BEFORE MOST CONVECTION SHIFTS WEST OF AREA AFTER
20Z.

&&

.MARINE...TONIGHT-TUESDAY...LOCAL ATLANTIC REMAINS CHOPPY AS EAST-
SOUTHEAST WINDS REMAIN STEADY NEAR 15KTS...OCCASIONALLY 15-20KTS AT
TIMES. SEAS CONTINUING 3-5 FEET OVER MOST OF THE WATERS WITH UP TO 6
FEET AT TIMES IN THE GULF STREAM.

POOR CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT OPERATION WILL CONTINUE.  EXERCISE
CAUTION STATEMENTS REMAIN NECESSARY ESPECIALLY OVER THE GULF STREAM.

WED-SAT...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING NORTH OF THE REGION WILL
MAINTAIN A MODERATE ONSHORE BREEZE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK WITH WIND
SPEEDS GENERALLY 10-15 KNOTS INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KNOTS AT TIMES
OFFSHORE. SEAS GENERALLY IN THE 3-5FT RANGE.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD WARM LOWS FOR TODAY/TOMORROW.

LOC  DATE   HI-MIN
DAB 25-MAY  75 1991
MCO 25-MAY  74 2014
MLB 25-MAY  76 1991
VRB 25-MAY  77 1991

DAB 26-MAY  73 1991
MCO 26-MAY  74 1943
MLB 26-MAY  78 2014
VRB 26-MAY  76 1991

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  74  86  73  84 /  10  10  10  10
MCO  73  91  71  89 /  10  20  10  10
MLB  78  88  75  84 /  20  20  10  10
VRB  75  87  74  85 /  20  20  10  10
LEE  75  92  71  90 /  10  20  10  10
SFB  73  91  70  88 /  10  20  10  10
ORL  73  90  71  89 /  10  20  10  10
FPR  75  88  74  85 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...MOSES
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX....CRISTALDI





000
FXUS62 KMLB 251859
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
255 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...

THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...DRIER AIRMASS HAS BEEN SUCCESSFUL THIS
AFTERNOON AS COVERAGE HAS  REMAINED ISOLATED ALONG THE DIFFUSE EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE. RADAR AND SATELLITE SHOW BEST CONVERGENCE HAS MORE
OR LESS ALREADY PUSHED WEST OF THE AREA WITH PERHAPS A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS NEAR KISSIMMEE RIVER AND LAKE COUNTY THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.

GIVEN THE DIFFUSE NATURE OF THE SEA BREEZE SUPPRESSION BEHIND IT IS
MINIMAL. A FEW ATLANTIC SHOWERS MAY REACH THE COAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT EXPECT OVERALL COVERAGE TO BE
LOWER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS.

ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS MILD WITH MID-
UPPER 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SPACE AND TREASURE COASTS AND LOW-MID
70S ELSEWHERE.

TUESDAY...ANOTHER DAY...MORE DEEP AND DRY EASTERLY FLOW. SYNOPTIC
PATTERN CHANGES LITTLE INTO TUESDAY AS WE REMAIN ON THE SOUTH SIDE
OF THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND UNDERNEATH THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.

MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW AN EVEN DRIER AIRMASS...SO EXPECT MORNING
ATLANTIC SHOWERS TO BE LIMITED. COVERAGE REMAINS ISOLATED THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON WITH A DIFFUSE INLAND MOVING SEA BREEZE...PERHAPS
BECOMING WIDELY SCATTERED AS ACTIVITY REACHES THE KISSIMMEE RIVER
AND LAKE COUNTY. WON`T RULE OUT A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO WITH
ACTIVITY OVER THE INTERIOR SO WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF THUNDER FOR
THE EARLY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE WE WILL SEE THE MAJORITY OF ACTIVITY
WEST OF THE REGION BY MID AFTERNOON AS WITH THE PAST FEW DAYS.

HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST AND LOW 90S INLAND.

...PREVIOUS EXTENDED DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

TUE NIGHT-THU NIGHT...AXIS OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE
ATLANTIC WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION AND MAINTAIN A MODERATE TO
BREEZY ONSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. EASTERLY WINDS TAP
INTO DRIER MID LEVEL AIR OVER THE ATLANTIC THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION AND DECREASE RAIN CHANCES THROUGH MID WEEK. MAINTAINED DRY
CONDITIONS WED-THU AS PW VALUES CONTINUE TO DECREASE. WHILE A FEW
ONSHORE MOVING LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES MAINLY DURING THE NIGHT HOURS
NOT ENTIRELY OUT OF THE QUESTION...POPS REMAIN LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP
OUT OF THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

ELEVATED ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP HIGHS NEAR SEASONAL NORMS AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS MORE MILD ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID-UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST TO UPPER 80S-LOW 90S
INTERIOR. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

FRI-MON...MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT FROM LATE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NORTH OF THE REGION CONTINUING
AN ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY
BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA WITH POPS INCREASING CLOSER TO NORMAL...UP
TO 30-40 PERCENT DURING THE WEEKEND. NOT MUCH OF A CHANGE IN TEMPS
WITH HIGHS NEAR NORMAL AND OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION... ISOLD SHRA/TSRA WEST OF KLEE-KORL-KMCO-KISM PUSHING
INTO WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AFTER 20Z. ISOLD ATLC SHRA AFFECTING
COASTAL SITES SOUTH OF KTIX THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH LOWER COVERAGE
THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS. TEMPO MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE IN/NEAR ANY SHOWERS
AND ALONG COAST. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20KTS CONTINUE THROUGH
AFTERNOON...MAINLY ALONG COAST.

DRIER AIR LEADS TO LOWER COVERAGE ON TUES. SIMILAR PATTERN WITH
ISOLD SHRA TRANSLATING INLAND AFTER 15Z...POSSIBLY FOR STORM OR TWO
NEAR KMCO/KLEE...BEFORE MOST CONVECTION SHIFTS WEST OF AREA AFTER
20Z.

&&

.MARINE...TONIGHT-TUESDAY...LOCAL ATLANTIC REMAINS CHOPPY AS EAST-
SOUTHEAST WINDS REMAIN STEADY NEAR 15KTS...OCCASIONALLY 15-20KTS AT
TIMES. SEAS CONTINUING 3-5 FEET OVER MOST OF THE WATERS WITH UP TO 6
FEET AT TIMES IN THE GULF STREAM.

POOR CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT OPERATION WILL CONTINUE.  EXERCISE
CAUTION STATEMENTS REMAIN NECESSARY ESPECIALLY OVER THE GULF STREAM.

WED-SAT...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING NORTH OF THE REGION WILL
MAINTAIN A MODERATE ONSHORE BREEZE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK WITH WIND
SPEEDS GENERALLY 10-15 KNOTS INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KNOTS AT TIMES
OFFSHORE. SEAS GENERALLY IN THE 3-5FT RANGE.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD WARM LOWS FOR TODAY/TOMORROW.

LOC  DATE   HI-MIN
DAB 25-MAY  75 1991
MCO 25-MAY  74 2014
MLB 25-MAY  76 1991
VRB 25-MAY  77 1991

DAB 26-MAY  73 1991
MCO 26-MAY  74 1943
MLB 26-MAY  78 2014
VRB 26-MAY  76 1991

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  74  86  73  84 /  10  10  10  10
MCO  73  91  71  89 /  10  20  10  10
MLB  78  88  75  84 /  20  20  10  10
VRB  75  87  74  85 /  20  20  10  10
LEE  75  92  71  90 /  10  20  10  10
SFB  73  91  70  88 /  10  20  10  10
ORL  73  90  71  89 /  10  20  10  10
FPR  75  88  74  85 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...MOSES
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX....CRISTALDI




000
FXUS62 KMLB 251858
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
255 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...PREVIOUS EXTENDED DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...DRIER AIRMASS HAS BEEN SUCCESSFUL THIS
AFTERNOON AS COVERAGE HAS  REMAINED ISOLATED ALONG THE DIFFUSE EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE. RADAR AND SATELLITE SHOW BEST CONVERGENCE HAS MORE
OR LESS ALREADY PUSHED WEST OF THE AREA WITH PERHAPS A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS NEAR KISSIMMEE RIVER AND LAKE COUNTY THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.

GIVEN THE DIFFUSE NATURE OF THE SEA BREEZE SUPPRESSION BEHIND IT IS
MINIMAL. A FEW ATLANTIC SHOWERS MAY REACH THE COAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT EXPECT OVERALL COVERAGE TO BE
LOWER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS.

ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS MILD WITH MID-
UPPER 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SPACE AND TREASURE COASTS AND LOW-MID
70S ELSEWHERE.

TUESDAY...ANOTHER DAY...MORE DEEP AND DRY EASTERLY FLOW. SYNOPTIC
PATTERN CHANGES LITTLE INTO TUESDAY AS WE REMAIN ON THE SOUTH SIDE
OF THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND UNDERNEATH THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.

MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW AN EVEN DRIER AIRMASS...SO EXPECT MORNING
ATLANTIC SHOWERS TO BE LIMITED. COVERAGE REMAINS ISOLATED THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON WITH A DIFFUSE INLAND MOVING SEA BREEZE...PERHAPS
BECOMING WIDELY SCATTERED AS ACTIVITY REACHES THE KISSIMMEE RIVER
AND LAKE COUNTY. WON`T RULE OUT A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO WITH
ACTIVITY OVER THE INTERIOR SO WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF THUNDER FOR
THE EARLY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE WE WILL SEE THE MAJORITY OF ACTIVITY
WEST OF THE REGION BY MID AFTERNOON AS WITH THE PAST FEW DAYS.

HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST AND LOW 90S INLAND.

TUE NIGHT-THU NIGHT...AXIS OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE
ATLANTIC WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION AND MAINTAIN A MODERATE TO
BREEZY ONSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. EASTERLY WINDS TAP
INTO DRIER MID LEVEL AIR OVER THE ATLANTIC THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION AND DECREASE RAIN CHANCES THROUGH MID WEEK. MAINTAINED DRY
CONDITIONS WED-THU AS PW VALUES CONTINUE TO DECREASE. WHILE A FEW
ONSHORE MOVING LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES MAINLY DURING THE NIGHT HOURS
NOT ENTIRELY OUT OF THE QUESTION...POPS REMAIN LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP
OUT OF THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

ELEVATED ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP HIGHS NEAR SEASONAL NORMS AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS MORE MILD ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID-UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST TO UPPER 80S-LOW 90S
INTERIOR. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

FRI-MON...MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT FROM LATE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NORTH OF THE REGION CONTINUING
AN ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY
BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA WITH POPS INCREASING CLOSER TO NORMAL...UP
TO 30-40 PERCENT DURING THE WEEKEND. NOT MUCH OF A CHANGE IN TEMPS
WITH HIGHS NEAR NORMAL AND OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION... ISOLD SHRA/TSRA WEST OF KLEE-KORL-KMCO-KISM PUSHING
INTO WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AFTER 20Z. ISOLD ATLC SHRA AFFECTING
COASTAL SITES SOUTH OF KTIX THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH LOWER COVERAGE
THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS. TEMPO MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE IN/NEAR ANY SHOWERS
AND ALONG COAST. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20KTS CONTINUE THROUGH
AFTERNOON...MAINLY ALONG COAST.

DRIER AIR LEADS TO LOWER COVERAGE ON TUES. SIMILAR PATTERN WITH
ISOLD SHRA TRANSLATING INLAND AFTER 15Z...POSSIBLY FOR STORM OR TWO
NEAR KMCO/KLEE...BEFORE MOST CONVECTION SHIFTS WEST OF AREA AFTER
20Z.

&&

.MARINE...TONIGHT-TUESDAY...LOCAL ATLANTIC REMAINS CHOPPY AS EAST-
SOUTHEAST WINDS REMAIN STEADY NEAR 15KTS...OCCASIONALLY 15-20KTS AT
TIMES. SEAS CONTINUING 3-5 FEET OVER MOST OF THE WATERS WITH UP TO 6
FEET AT TIMES IN THE GULF STREAM.

POOR CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT OPERATION WILL CONTINUE.  EXERCISE
CAUTION STATEMENTS REMAIN NECESSARY ESPECIALLY OVER THE GULF STREAM.

WED-SAT...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING NORTH OF THE REGION WILL
MAINTAIN A MODERATE ONSHORE BREEZE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK WITH WIND
SPEEDS GENERALLY 10-15 KNOTS INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KNOTS AT TIMES
OFFSHORE. SEAS GENERALLY IN THE 3-5FT RANGE.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD WARM LOWS FOR TODAY/TOMORROW.

LOC  DATE   HI-MIN
DAB 25-MAY  75 1991
MCO 25-MAY  74 2014
MLB 25-MAY  76 1991
VRB 25-MAY  77 1991

DAB 26-MAY  73 1991
MCO 26-MAY  74 1943
MLB 26-MAY  78 2014
VRB 26-MAY  76 1991

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  74  86  73  84 /  10  10  10  10
MCO  73  91  71  89 /  10  20  10  10
MLB  78  88  75  84 /  20  20  10  10
VRB  75  87  74  85 /  20  20  10  10
LEE  75  92  71  90 /  10  20  10  10
SFB  73  91  70  88 /  10  20  10  10
ORL  73  90  71  89 /  10  20  10  10
FPR  75  88  74  85 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...MOSES
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX....CRISTALDI





000
FXUS62 KMLB 251858
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
255 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...PREVIOUS EXTENDED DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...DRIER AIRMASS HAS BEEN SUCCESSFUL THIS
AFTERNOON AS COVERAGE HAS  REMAINED ISOLATED ALONG THE DIFFUSE EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE. RADAR AND SATELLITE SHOW BEST CONVERGENCE HAS MORE
OR LESS ALREADY PUSHED WEST OF THE AREA WITH PERHAPS A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS NEAR KISSIMMEE RIVER AND LAKE COUNTY THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.

GIVEN THE DIFFUSE NATURE OF THE SEA BREEZE SUPPRESSION BEHIND IT IS
MINIMAL. A FEW ATLANTIC SHOWERS MAY REACH THE COAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT EXPECT OVERALL COVERAGE TO BE
LOWER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS.

ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS MILD WITH MID-
UPPER 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SPACE AND TREASURE COASTS AND LOW-MID
70S ELSEWHERE.

TUESDAY...ANOTHER DAY...MORE DEEP AND DRY EASTERLY FLOW. SYNOPTIC
PATTERN CHANGES LITTLE INTO TUESDAY AS WE REMAIN ON THE SOUTH SIDE
OF THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND UNDERNEATH THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.

MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW AN EVEN DRIER AIRMASS...SO EXPECT MORNING
ATLANTIC SHOWERS TO BE LIMITED. COVERAGE REMAINS ISOLATED THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON WITH A DIFFUSE INLAND MOVING SEA BREEZE...PERHAPS
BECOMING WIDELY SCATTERED AS ACTIVITY REACHES THE KISSIMMEE RIVER
AND LAKE COUNTY. WON`T RULE OUT A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO WITH
ACTIVITY OVER THE INTERIOR SO WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF THUNDER FOR
THE EARLY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE WE WILL SEE THE MAJORITY OF ACTIVITY
WEST OF THE REGION BY MID AFTERNOON AS WITH THE PAST FEW DAYS.

HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST AND LOW 90S INLAND.

TUE NIGHT-THU NIGHT...AXIS OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE
ATLANTIC WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION AND MAINTAIN A MODERATE TO
BREEZY ONSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. EASTERLY WINDS TAP
INTO DRIER MID LEVEL AIR OVER THE ATLANTIC THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION AND DECREASE RAIN CHANCES THROUGH MID WEEK. MAINTAINED DRY
CONDITIONS WED-THU AS PW VALUES CONTINUE TO DECREASE. WHILE A FEW
ONSHORE MOVING LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES MAINLY DURING THE NIGHT HOURS
NOT ENTIRELY OUT OF THE QUESTION...POPS REMAIN LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP
OUT OF THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

ELEVATED ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP HIGHS NEAR SEASONAL NORMS AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS MORE MILD ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID-UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST TO UPPER 80S-LOW 90S
INTERIOR. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

FRI-MON...MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT FROM LATE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NORTH OF THE REGION CONTINUING
AN ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY
BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA WITH POPS INCREASING CLOSER TO NORMAL...UP
TO 30-40 PERCENT DURING THE WEEKEND. NOT MUCH OF A CHANGE IN TEMPS
WITH HIGHS NEAR NORMAL AND OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION... ISOLD SHRA/TSRA WEST OF KLEE-KORL-KMCO-KISM PUSHING
INTO WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AFTER 20Z. ISOLD ATLC SHRA AFFECTING
COASTAL SITES SOUTH OF KTIX THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH LOWER COVERAGE
THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS. TEMPO MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE IN/NEAR ANY SHOWERS
AND ALONG COAST. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20KTS CONTINUE THROUGH
AFTERNOON...MAINLY ALONG COAST.

DRIER AIR LEADS TO LOWER COVERAGE ON TUES. SIMILAR PATTERN WITH
ISOLD SHRA TRANSLATING INLAND AFTER 15Z...POSSIBLY FOR STORM OR TWO
NEAR KMCO/KLEE...BEFORE MOST CONVECTION SHIFTS WEST OF AREA AFTER
20Z.

&&

.MARINE...TONIGHT-TUESDAY...LOCAL ATLANTIC REMAINS CHOPPY AS EAST-
SOUTHEAST WINDS REMAIN STEADY NEAR 15KTS...OCCASIONALLY 15-20KTS AT
TIMES. SEAS CONTINUING 3-5 FEET OVER MOST OF THE WATERS WITH UP TO 6
FEET AT TIMES IN THE GULF STREAM.

POOR CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT OPERATION WILL CONTINUE.  EXERCISE
CAUTION STATEMENTS REMAIN NECESSARY ESPECIALLY OVER THE GULF STREAM.

WED-SAT...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING NORTH OF THE REGION WILL
MAINTAIN A MODERATE ONSHORE BREEZE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK WITH WIND
SPEEDS GENERALLY 10-15 KNOTS INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KNOTS AT TIMES
OFFSHORE. SEAS GENERALLY IN THE 3-5FT RANGE.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD WARM LOWS FOR TODAY/TOMORROW.

LOC  DATE   HI-MIN
DAB 25-MAY  75 1991
MCO 25-MAY  74 2014
MLB 25-MAY  76 1991
VRB 25-MAY  77 1991

DAB 26-MAY  73 1991
MCO 26-MAY  74 1943
MLB 26-MAY  78 2014
VRB 26-MAY  76 1991

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  74  86  73  84 /  10  10  10  10
MCO  73  91  71  89 /  10  20  10  10
MLB  78  88  75  84 /  20  20  10  10
VRB  75  87  74  85 /  20  20  10  10
LEE  75  92  71  90 /  10  20  10  10
SFB  73  91  70  88 /  10  20  10  10
ORL  73  90  71  89 /  10  20  10  10
FPR  75  88  74  85 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...MOSES
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX....CRISTALDI





000
FXUS62 KMLB 251858
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
255 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...PREVIOUS EXTENDED DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...DRIER AIRMASS HAS BEEN SUCCESSFUL THIS
AFTERNOON AS COVERAGE HAS  REMAINED ISOLATED ALONG THE DIFFUSE EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE. RADAR AND SATELLITE SHOW BEST CONVERGENCE HAS MORE
OR LESS ALREADY PUSHED WEST OF THE AREA WITH PERHAPS A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS NEAR KISSIMMEE RIVER AND LAKE COUNTY THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.

GIVEN THE DIFFUSE NATURE OF THE SEA BREEZE SUPPRESSION BEHIND IT IS
MINIMAL. A FEW ATLANTIC SHOWERS MAY REACH THE COAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT EXPECT OVERALL COVERAGE TO BE
LOWER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS.

ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS MILD WITH MID-
UPPER 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SPACE AND TREASURE COASTS AND LOW-MID
70S ELSEWHERE.

TUESDAY...ANOTHER DAY...MORE DEEP AND DRY EASTERLY FLOW. SYNOPTIC
PATTERN CHANGES LITTLE INTO TUESDAY AS WE REMAIN ON THE SOUTH SIDE
OF THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND UNDERNEATH THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.

MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW AN EVEN DRIER AIRMASS...SO EXPECT MORNING
ATLANTIC SHOWERS TO BE LIMITED. COVERAGE REMAINS ISOLATED THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON WITH A DIFFUSE INLAND MOVING SEA BREEZE...PERHAPS
BECOMING WIDELY SCATTERED AS ACTIVITY REACHES THE KISSIMMEE RIVER
AND LAKE COUNTY. WON`T RULE OUT A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO WITH
ACTIVITY OVER THE INTERIOR SO WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF THUNDER FOR
THE EARLY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE WE WILL SEE THE MAJORITY OF ACTIVITY
WEST OF THE REGION BY MID AFTERNOON AS WITH THE PAST FEW DAYS.

HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST AND LOW 90S INLAND.

TUE NIGHT-THU NIGHT...AXIS OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE
ATLANTIC WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION AND MAINTAIN A MODERATE TO
BREEZY ONSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. EASTERLY WINDS TAP
INTO DRIER MID LEVEL AIR OVER THE ATLANTIC THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION AND DECREASE RAIN CHANCES THROUGH MID WEEK. MAINTAINED DRY
CONDITIONS WED-THU AS PW VALUES CONTINUE TO DECREASE. WHILE A FEW
ONSHORE MOVING LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES MAINLY DURING THE NIGHT HOURS
NOT ENTIRELY OUT OF THE QUESTION...POPS REMAIN LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP
OUT OF THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

ELEVATED ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP HIGHS NEAR SEASONAL NORMS AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS MORE MILD ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID-UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST TO UPPER 80S-LOW 90S
INTERIOR. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

FRI-MON...MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT FROM LATE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NORTH OF THE REGION CONTINUING
AN ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY
BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA WITH POPS INCREASING CLOSER TO NORMAL...UP
TO 30-40 PERCENT DURING THE WEEKEND. NOT MUCH OF A CHANGE IN TEMPS
WITH HIGHS NEAR NORMAL AND OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION... ISOLD SHRA/TSRA WEST OF KLEE-KORL-KMCO-KISM PUSHING
INTO WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AFTER 20Z. ISOLD ATLC SHRA AFFECTING
COASTAL SITES SOUTH OF KTIX THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH LOWER COVERAGE
THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS. TEMPO MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE IN/NEAR ANY SHOWERS
AND ALONG COAST. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20KTS CONTINUE THROUGH
AFTERNOON...MAINLY ALONG COAST.

DRIER AIR LEADS TO LOWER COVERAGE ON TUES. SIMILAR PATTERN WITH
ISOLD SHRA TRANSLATING INLAND AFTER 15Z...POSSIBLY FOR STORM OR TWO
NEAR KMCO/KLEE...BEFORE MOST CONVECTION SHIFTS WEST OF AREA AFTER
20Z.

&&

.MARINE...TONIGHT-TUESDAY...LOCAL ATLANTIC REMAINS CHOPPY AS EAST-
SOUTHEAST WINDS REMAIN STEADY NEAR 15KTS...OCCASIONALLY 15-20KTS AT
TIMES. SEAS CONTINUING 3-5 FEET OVER MOST OF THE WATERS WITH UP TO 6
FEET AT TIMES IN THE GULF STREAM.

POOR CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT OPERATION WILL CONTINUE.  EXERCISE
CAUTION STATEMENTS REMAIN NECESSARY ESPECIALLY OVER THE GULF STREAM.

WED-SAT...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING NORTH OF THE REGION WILL
MAINTAIN A MODERATE ONSHORE BREEZE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK WITH WIND
SPEEDS GENERALLY 10-15 KNOTS INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KNOTS AT TIMES
OFFSHORE. SEAS GENERALLY IN THE 3-5FT RANGE.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD WARM LOWS FOR TODAY/TOMORROW.

LOC  DATE   HI-MIN
DAB 25-MAY  75 1991
MCO 25-MAY  74 2014
MLB 25-MAY  76 1991
VRB 25-MAY  77 1991

DAB 26-MAY  73 1991
MCO 26-MAY  74 1943
MLB 26-MAY  78 2014
VRB 26-MAY  76 1991

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  74  86  73  84 /  10  10  10  10
MCO  73  91  71  89 /  10  20  10  10
MLB  78  88  75  84 /  20  20  10  10
VRB  75  87  74  85 /  20  20  10  10
LEE  75  92  71  90 /  10  20  10  10
SFB  73  91  70  88 /  10  20  10  10
ORL  73  90  71  89 /  10  20  10  10
FPR  75  88  74  85 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...MOSES
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX....CRISTALDI




000
FXUS62 KMLB 251858
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
255 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...PREVIOUS EXTENDED DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...DRIER AIRMASS HAS BEEN SUCCESSFUL THIS
AFTERNOON AS COVERAGE HAS  REMAINED ISOLATED ALONG THE DIFFUSE EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE. RADAR AND SATELLITE SHOW BEST CONVERGENCE HAS MORE
OR LESS ALREADY PUSHED WEST OF THE AREA WITH PERHAPS A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS NEAR KISSIMMEE RIVER AND LAKE COUNTY THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.

GIVEN THE DIFFUSE NATURE OF THE SEA BREEZE SUPPRESSION BEHIND IT IS
MINIMAL. A FEW ATLANTIC SHOWERS MAY REACH THE COAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT EXPECT OVERALL COVERAGE TO BE
LOWER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS.

ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS MILD WITH MID-
UPPER 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SPACE AND TREASURE COASTS AND LOW-MID
70S ELSEWHERE.

TUESDAY...ANOTHER DAY...MORE DEEP AND DRY EASTERLY FLOW. SYNOPTIC
PATTERN CHANGES LITTLE INTO TUESDAY AS WE REMAIN ON THE SOUTH SIDE
OF THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND UNDERNEATH THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.

MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW AN EVEN DRIER AIRMASS...SO EXPECT MORNING
ATLANTIC SHOWERS TO BE LIMITED. COVERAGE REMAINS ISOLATED THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON WITH A DIFFUSE INLAND MOVING SEA BREEZE...PERHAPS
BECOMING WIDELY SCATTERED AS ACTIVITY REACHES THE KISSIMMEE RIVER
AND LAKE COUNTY. WON`T RULE OUT A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO WITH
ACTIVITY OVER THE INTERIOR SO WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF THUNDER FOR
THE EARLY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE WE WILL SEE THE MAJORITY OF ACTIVITY
WEST OF THE REGION BY MID AFTERNOON AS WITH THE PAST FEW DAYS.

HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST AND LOW 90S INLAND.

TUE NIGHT-THU NIGHT...AXIS OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE
ATLANTIC WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION AND MAINTAIN A MODERATE TO
BREEZY ONSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. EASTERLY WINDS TAP
INTO DRIER MID LEVEL AIR OVER THE ATLANTIC THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION AND DECREASE RAIN CHANCES THROUGH MID WEEK. MAINTAINED DRY
CONDITIONS WED-THU AS PW VALUES CONTINUE TO DECREASE. WHILE A FEW
ONSHORE MOVING LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES MAINLY DURING THE NIGHT HOURS
NOT ENTIRELY OUT OF THE QUESTION...POPS REMAIN LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP
OUT OF THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

ELEVATED ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP HIGHS NEAR SEASONAL NORMS AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS MORE MILD ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID-UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST TO UPPER 80S-LOW 90S
INTERIOR. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

FRI-MON...MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT FROM LATE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NORTH OF THE REGION CONTINUING
AN ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY
BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA WITH POPS INCREASING CLOSER TO NORMAL...UP
TO 30-40 PERCENT DURING THE WEEKEND. NOT MUCH OF A CHANGE IN TEMPS
WITH HIGHS NEAR NORMAL AND OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION... ISOLD SHRA/TSRA WEST OF KLEE-KORL-KMCO-KISM PUSHING
INTO WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AFTER 20Z. ISOLD ATLC SHRA AFFECTING
COASTAL SITES SOUTH OF KTIX THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH LOWER COVERAGE
THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS. TEMPO MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE IN/NEAR ANY SHOWERS
AND ALONG COAST. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20KTS CONTINUE THROUGH
AFTERNOON...MAINLY ALONG COAST.

DRIER AIR LEADS TO LOWER COVERAGE ON TUES. SIMILAR PATTERN WITH
ISOLD SHRA TRANSLATING INLAND AFTER 15Z...POSSIBLY FOR STORM OR TWO
NEAR KMCO/KLEE...BEFORE MOST CONVECTION SHIFTS WEST OF AREA AFTER
20Z.

&&

.MARINE...TONIGHT-TUESDAY...LOCAL ATLANTIC REMAINS CHOPPY AS EAST-
SOUTHEAST WINDS REMAIN STEADY NEAR 15KTS...OCCASIONALLY 15-20KTS AT
TIMES. SEAS CONTINUING 3-5 FEET OVER MOST OF THE WATERS WITH UP TO 6
FEET AT TIMES IN THE GULF STREAM.

POOR CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT OPERATION WILL CONTINUE.  EXERCISE
CAUTION STATEMENTS REMAIN NECESSARY ESPECIALLY OVER THE GULF STREAM.

WED-SAT...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING NORTH OF THE REGION WILL
MAINTAIN A MODERATE ONSHORE BREEZE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK WITH WIND
SPEEDS GENERALLY 10-15 KNOTS INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KNOTS AT TIMES
OFFSHORE. SEAS GENERALLY IN THE 3-5FT RANGE.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD WARM LOWS FOR TODAY/TOMORROW.

LOC  DATE   HI-MIN
DAB 25-MAY  75 1991
MCO 25-MAY  74 2014
MLB 25-MAY  76 1991
VRB 25-MAY  77 1991

DAB 26-MAY  73 1991
MCO 26-MAY  74 1943
MLB 26-MAY  78 2014
VRB 26-MAY  76 1991

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  74  86  73  84 /  10  10  10  10
MCO  73  91  71  89 /  10  20  10  10
MLB  78  88  75  84 /  20  20  10  10
VRB  75  87  74  85 /  20  20  10  10
LEE  75  92  71  90 /  10  20  10  10
SFB  73  91  70  88 /  10  20  10  10
ORL  73  90  71  89 /  10  20  10  10
FPR  75  88  74  85 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...MOSES
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX....CRISTALDI




000
FXUS62 KMLB 251234
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
835 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN ONGOING PATTERN WITH WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE CONTINUING TO SHOW CONSIDERABLE DRYING ALOFT TO OUR EAST
UNDERNEATH THE DEEP RIDGE ALONG THE EASTERN US COAST.

WITH LOW LEVEL RIDGE ALSO CENTERED OFF THE EAST COAST TO OUR NORTH
WE WILL REMAIN DEEP EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW WHICH WILL ADVECT THIS MID
LEVEL AIRMASS INTO OUR AREA TODAY.

AS RADAR SHOWS THIS MORNING...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS SUFFICIENT
FOR ISOLATED ATLANTIC SHOWERS. THESE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
COAST...TRANSLATING INLAND WITH DIFFUSE SEA BREEZE LATER THIS
MORNING. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES REMAIN LOW...BUT COULD SEE ONE OR TWO
WITH LOCAL LAKE BOUNDARY COLLISIONS ACROSS WESTERN ORANGE/LAKE
COUNTIES. OVERALL ATMOSPHERE IS JUST TO STABLE FOR MUCH DEEP
CONVECTION.

HIGHS IN THE MID 80S ALONG THE COAST AND LOW 90S INLAND. THE BRISK
ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE FOR ROUGH SURF CONDITIONS ALONG
LOCAL BEACHES. REMEMBER TO ONLY ENTER THE WATER NEAR A LIFEGUARD.

&&

.AVIATION... ISOLD ATLC SHRA AFFECTING COASTAL SITES MOST OF THE
DAY. TEMPO MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT REGION THROUGH 17Z WITH
DAYTIME CU DEVELOPMENT AND ALSO IN/NEAR ANY SHOWERS. ISOLD SHRA
TRANSLATE INLAND AFTER 15Z...POSSIBLY FOR STORM OR TWO VCNTY KLEE-
KORL-KMCO-KISM THROUGH 20Z BEFORE MOST CONVECTION SHIFTS WEST OF
AREA.

A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS AND MAYBE TO 25 KNOTS KMLB-KSUA
THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE... POOR CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT OPERATION WILL CONTINUE.
EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS LOOK RATHER STEADY NEAR 15 KNOTS WHICH WILL
PRODUCE CHOPPY SEAS NEAR 5 FEET OVER MOST OF THE WATERS WITH UP TO 6
FEET AT TIMES IN THE GULF STREAM. EXERCISE CAUTION STATEMENTS WILL
BE NECESSARY ESPECIALLY OVER THE GULF STREAM.

&&

.CLIMATE...ORLANDO AND VERO BEACH HAD RECORD WARM LOWS ON SUNDAY.
HERE ARE THE RECORD WARM LOWS FOR TODAY/TOMORROW.

LOC  DATE   HI-MIN
DAB 25-MAY  75 1991
MCO 25-MAY  74 2014
MLB 25-MAY  76 1991
VRB 25-MAY  77 1991

DAB 26-MAY  73 1991
MCO 26-MAY  74 1943
MLB 26-MAY  78 2014
VRB 26-MAY  76 1991

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

MOSES/CRISTALDI




000
FXUS62 KMLB 251234
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
835 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN ONGOING PATTERN WITH WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE CONTINUING TO SHOW CONSIDERABLE DRYING ALOFT TO OUR EAST
UNDERNEATH THE DEEP RIDGE ALONG THE EASTERN US COAST.

WITH LOW LEVEL RIDGE ALSO CENTERED OFF THE EAST COAST TO OUR NORTH
WE WILL REMAIN DEEP EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW WHICH WILL ADVECT THIS MID
LEVEL AIRMASS INTO OUR AREA TODAY.

AS RADAR SHOWS THIS MORNING...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS SUFFICIENT
FOR ISOLATED ATLANTIC SHOWERS. THESE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
COAST...TRANSLATING INLAND WITH DIFFUSE SEA BREEZE LATER THIS
MORNING. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES REMAIN LOW...BUT COULD SEE ONE OR TWO
WITH LOCAL LAKE BOUNDARY COLLISIONS ACROSS WESTERN ORANGE/LAKE
COUNTIES. OVERALL ATMOSPHERE IS JUST TO STABLE FOR MUCH DEEP
CONVECTION.

HIGHS IN THE MID 80S ALONG THE COAST AND LOW 90S INLAND. THE BRISK
ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE FOR ROUGH SURF CONDITIONS ALONG
LOCAL BEACHES. REMEMBER TO ONLY ENTER THE WATER NEAR A LIFEGUARD.

&&

.AVIATION... ISOLD ATLC SHRA AFFECTING COASTAL SITES MOST OF THE
DAY. TEMPO MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT REGION THROUGH 17Z WITH
DAYTIME CU DEVELOPMENT AND ALSO IN/NEAR ANY SHOWERS. ISOLD SHRA
TRANSLATE INLAND AFTER 15Z...POSSIBLY FOR STORM OR TWO VCNTY KLEE-
KORL-KMCO-KISM THROUGH 20Z BEFORE MOST CONVECTION SHIFTS WEST OF
AREA.

A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS AND MAYBE TO 25 KNOTS KMLB-KSUA
THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE... POOR CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT OPERATION WILL CONTINUE.
EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS LOOK RATHER STEADY NEAR 15 KNOTS WHICH WILL
PRODUCE CHOPPY SEAS NEAR 5 FEET OVER MOST OF THE WATERS WITH UP TO 6
FEET AT TIMES IN THE GULF STREAM. EXERCISE CAUTION STATEMENTS WILL
BE NECESSARY ESPECIALLY OVER THE GULF STREAM.

&&

.CLIMATE...ORLANDO AND VERO BEACH HAD RECORD WARM LOWS ON SUNDAY.
HERE ARE THE RECORD WARM LOWS FOR TODAY/TOMORROW.

LOC  DATE   HI-MIN
DAB 25-MAY  75 1991
MCO 25-MAY  74 2014
MLB 25-MAY  76 1991
VRB 25-MAY  77 1991

DAB 26-MAY  73 1991
MCO 26-MAY  74 1943
MLB 26-MAY  78 2014
VRB 26-MAY  76 1991

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

MOSES/CRISTALDI





000
FXUS62 KMLB 250750
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
349 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT AGAIN TODAY...

TODAY-TONIGHT...LATEST WATER VAPOR SHOWS CONSIDERABLE DRYING ALOFT
OVER THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC IN ASSOCIATION WITH DEEP LAYER
ANTICYCLONE THAT WAS CENTERED A LITTLE TO OUR NORTH. BREEZY EAST
TO SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW WAS GENERATING ATLANTIC CLOUD LINES
AND ISOLATED SHOWERS BUT OVERALL THEY LOOK A BIT WEAKER THAN 24
HOURS AGO.

WITH THE DRYING ALOFT...WE WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW SHOWER CHANCES
OVER THE AREA TODAY. ENOUGH HEATING MAY OCCUR AGAIN OVER LAKE
COUNTY FOR A SMALL CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDER.

WOULD EXPECT OVERALL LOWER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO START
INFILTRATING THE AREA TONIGHT. THE MODELS DO NOT GENERATE MUCH
PRECIP OVER THE ATLANTIC AND POPS ARE LESS THAN 20 PERCENT. WILL
CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE TREASURE COAST.

LITTLE TEMPERATURE CHANGE WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW PRODUCING A
SMALLER DIURNAL RANGE THAN NORMAL. SOME LOWS IN THE MID 70S
TONIGHT COULD AGAIN FLIRT WITH RECORD WARM READINGS AT A FEW
LOCATIONS.

TUE-THU...AXIS OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION AND MAINTAIN A MODERATE TO BREEZY ONSHORE
LOW LEVEL FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. EASTERLY WINDS TAP INTO DRIER MID
LEVEL AIR OVER THE ATLANTIC THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AND
DECREASE RAIN CHANCES INTO MID WEEK. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS OVER THE INTERIOR TUE AND THEN EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WED-
THU AS PW VALUES CONTINUE TO DECREASE. WHILE A FEW ONSHORE MOVING
LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES MAINLY DURING THE NIGHT HOURS NOT ENTIRELY
OUT OF THE QUESTION...POPS REMAIN LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP OUT OF THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

ELEVATED ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP HIGHS NEAR SEASONAL NORMS AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS MORE MILD ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID-UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST TO UPPER 80S-LOW 90S
INTERIOR. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

FRI-SUN...MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT FROM LATE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NORTH OF THE REGION CONTINUING
AN ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY
BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA WITH POPS INCREASING CLOSER TO NORMAL...UP
TO 30-40 PERCENT DURING THE WEEKEND. NOT MUCH OF A CHANGE IN TEMPS
WITH HIGHS NEAR NORMAL AND OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...
MOIST ONSHORE FLOW COULD LEAD TO BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS...ESPECIALLY
IN/NEAR ISOLATED SHOWERS. OTHERWISE IT WILL VFR. EAST FLOW WILL
GUST TO AROUND 20 KNOTS AND MAYBE TO 25 KNOTS KMLB-KSUA THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY-TONIGHT...POOR CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT OPERATION.
EASTERLY WINDS LOOK RATHER STEADY NEAR 15 KNOTS WHICH WILL PRODUCE
CHOPPY SEAS NEAR 5 FEET. EXERCISE CAUTION STATEMENTS WILL BE
NECESSARY ESPECIALLY OVER THE GULF STREAM.

TUE-FRI...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING NORTH OF THE REGION WILL
MAINTAIN A MODERATE ONSHORE BREEZE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK WITH WIND
SPEEDS GENERALLY 10-15 KNOTS INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KNOTS AT TIMES
OFFSHORE. SEAS 3-4 FT TUE WILL INCREASE UP TO 3-5 FT TUE NIGHT-FRI.

&&

.CLIMATE...ORLANDO AND VERO BEACH HAD RECORD WARM LOWS ON SUNDAY.
HERE ARE THE RECORD WARM LOWS FOR TODAY/TOMORROW.

LOC  DATE   HI-MIN
DAB 25-MAY  75 1991
MCO 25-MAY  74 2014
MLB 25-MAY  76 1991
VRB 25-MAY  77 1991

DAB 26-MAY  73 1991
MCO 26-MAY  74 1943
MLB 26-MAY  78 2014
VRB 26-MAY  76 1991

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  85  74  86  70 /  20  10  10  10
MCO  90  73  91  70 /  30  10  20   0
MLB  86  77  86  73 /  20  10  10  10
VRB  87  75  88  72 /  20  10  10  10
LEE  92  74  91  72 /  30  10  20   0
SFB  90  72  89  69 /  20  10  20   0
ORL  90  73  89  71 /  20  10  20   0
FPR  86  75  87  70 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LASCODY
LONG TERM....WEITLICH





000
FXUS62 KMLB 250750
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
349 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT AGAIN TODAY...

TODAY-TONIGHT...LATEST WATER VAPOR SHOWS CONSIDERABLE DRYING ALOFT
OVER THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC IN ASSOCIATION WITH DEEP LAYER
ANTICYCLONE THAT WAS CENTERED A LITTLE TO OUR NORTH. BREEZY EAST
TO SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW WAS GENERATING ATLANTIC CLOUD LINES
AND ISOLATED SHOWERS BUT OVERALL THEY LOOK A BIT WEAKER THAN 24
HOURS AGO.

WITH THE DRYING ALOFT...WE WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW SHOWER CHANCES
OVER THE AREA TODAY. ENOUGH HEATING MAY OCCUR AGAIN OVER LAKE
COUNTY FOR A SMALL CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDER.

WOULD EXPECT OVERALL LOWER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO START
INFILTRATING THE AREA TONIGHT. THE MODELS DO NOT GENERATE MUCH
PRECIP OVER THE ATLANTIC AND POPS ARE LESS THAN 20 PERCENT. WILL
CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE TREASURE COAST.

LITTLE TEMPERATURE CHANGE WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW PRODUCING A
SMALLER DIURNAL RANGE THAN NORMAL. SOME LOWS IN THE MID 70S
TONIGHT COULD AGAIN FLIRT WITH RECORD WARM READINGS AT A FEW
LOCATIONS.

TUE-THU...AXIS OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION AND MAINTAIN A MODERATE TO BREEZY ONSHORE
LOW LEVEL FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. EASTERLY WINDS TAP INTO DRIER MID
LEVEL AIR OVER THE ATLANTIC THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AND
DECREASE RAIN CHANCES INTO MID WEEK. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS OVER THE INTERIOR TUE AND THEN EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WED-
THU AS PW VALUES CONTINUE TO DECREASE. WHILE A FEW ONSHORE MOVING
LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES MAINLY DURING THE NIGHT HOURS NOT ENTIRELY
OUT OF THE QUESTION...POPS REMAIN LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP OUT OF THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

ELEVATED ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP HIGHS NEAR SEASONAL NORMS AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS MORE MILD ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID-UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST TO UPPER 80S-LOW 90S
INTERIOR. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

FRI-SUN...MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT FROM LATE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NORTH OF THE REGION CONTINUING
AN ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY
BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA WITH POPS INCREASING CLOSER TO NORMAL...UP
TO 30-40 PERCENT DURING THE WEEKEND. NOT MUCH OF A CHANGE IN TEMPS
WITH HIGHS NEAR NORMAL AND OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...
MOIST ONSHORE FLOW COULD LEAD TO BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS...ESPECIALLY
IN/NEAR ISOLATED SHOWERS. OTHERWISE IT WILL VFR. EAST FLOW WILL
GUST TO AROUND 20 KNOTS AND MAYBE TO 25 KNOTS KMLB-KSUA THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY-TONIGHT...POOR CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT OPERATION.
EASTERLY WINDS LOOK RATHER STEADY NEAR 15 KNOTS WHICH WILL PRODUCE
CHOPPY SEAS NEAR 5 FEET. EXERCISE CAUTION STATEMENTS WILL BE
NECESSARY ESPECIALLY OVER THE GULF STREAM.

TUE-FRI...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING NORTH OF THE REGION WILL
MAINTAIN A MODERATE ONSHORE BREEZE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK WITH WIND
SPEEDS GENERALLY 10-15 KNOTS INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KNOTS AT TIMES
OFFSHORE. SEAS 3-4 FT TUE WILL INCREASE UP TO 3-5 FT TUE NIGHT-FRI.

&&

.CLIMATE...ORLANDO AND VERO BEACH HAD RECORD WARM LOWS ON SUNDAY.
HERE ARE THE RECORD WARM LOWS FOR TODAY/TOMORROW.

LOC  DATE   HI-MIN
DAB 25-MAY  75 1991
MCO 25-MAY  74 2014
MLB 25-MAY  76 1991
VRB 25-MAY  77 1991

DAB 26-MAY  73 1991
MCO 26-MAY  74 1943
MLB 26-MAY  78 2014
VRB 26-MAY  76 1991

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  85  74  86  70 /  20  10  10  10
MCO  90  73  91  70 /  30  10  20   0
MLB  86  77  86  73 /  20  10  10  10
VRB  87  75  88  72 /  20  10  10  10
LEE  92  74  91  72 /  30  10  20   0
SFB  90  72  89  69 /  20  10  20   0
ORL  90  73  89  71 /  20  10  20   0
FPR  86  75  87  70 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LASCODY
LONG TERM....WEITLICH




000
FXUS62 KMLB 250750
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
349 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT AGAIN TODAY...

TODAY-TONIGHT...LATEST WATER VAPOR SHOWS CONSIDERABLE DRYING ALOFT
OVER THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC IN ASSOCIATION WITH DEEP LAYER
ANTICYCLONE THAT WAS CENTERED A LITTLE TO OUR NORTH. BREEZY EAST
TO SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW WAS GENERATING ATLANTIC CLOUD LINES
AND ISOLATED SHOWERS BUT OVERALL THEY LOOK A BIT WEAKER THAN 24
HOURS AGO.

WITH THE DRYING ALOFT...WE WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW SHOWER CHANCES
OVER THE AREA TODAY. ENOUGH HEATING MAY OCCUR AGAIN OVER LAKE
COUNTY FOR A SMALL CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDER.

WOULD EXPECT OVERALL LOWER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO START
INFILTRATING THE AREA TONIGHT. THE MODELS DO NOT GENERATE MUCH
PRECIP OVER THE ATLANTIC AND POPS ARE LESS THAN 20 PERCENT. WILL
CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE TREASURE COAST.

LITTLE TEMPERATURE CHANGE WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW PRODUCING A
SMALLER DIURNAL RANGE THAN NORMAL. SOME LOWS IN THE MID 70S
TONIGHT COULD AGAIN FLIRT WITH RECORD WARM READINGS AT A FEW
LOCATIONS.

TUE-THU...AXIS OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION AND MAINTAIN A MODERATE TO BREEZY ONSHORE
LOW LEVEL FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. EASTERLY WINDS TAP INTO DRIER MID
LEVEL AIR OVER THE ATLANTIC THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AND
DECREASE RAIN CHANCES INTO MID WEEK. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS OVER THE INTERIOR TUE AND THEN EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WED-
THU AS PW VALUES CONTINUE TO DECREASE. WHILE A FEW ONSHORE MOVING
LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES MAINLY DURING THE NIGHT HOURS NOT ENTIRELY
OUT OF THE QUESTION...POPS REMAIN LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP OUT OF THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

ELEVATED ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP HIGHS NEAR SEASONAL NORMS AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS MORE MILD ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID-UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST TO UPPER 80S-LOW 90S
INTERIOR. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

FRI-SUN...MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT FROM LATE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NORTH OF THE REGION CONTINUING
AN ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY
BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA WITH POPS INCREASING CLOSER TO NORMAL...UP
TO 30-40 PERCENT DURING THE WEEKEND. NOT MUCH OF A CHANGE IN TEMPS
WITH HIGHS NEAR NORMAL AND OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...
MOIST ONSHORE FLOW COULD LEAD TO BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS...ESPECIALLY
IN/NEAR ISOLATED SHOWERS. OTHERWISE IT WILL VFR. EAST FLOW WILL
GUST TO AROUND 20 KNOTS AND MAYBE TO 25 KNOTS KMLB-KSUA THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY-TONIGHT...POOR CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT OPERATION.
EASTERLY WINDS LOOK RATHER STEADY NEAR 15 KNOTS WHICH WILL PRODUCE
CHOPPY SEAS NEAR 5 FEET. EXERCISE CAUTION STATEMENTS WILL BE
NECESSARY ESPECIALLY OVER THE GULF STREAM.

TUE-FRI...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING NORTH OF THE REGION WILL
MAINTAIN A MODERATE ONSHORE BREEZE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK WITH WIND
SPEEDS GENERALLY 10-15 KNOTS INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KNOTS AT TIMES
OFFSHORE. SEAS 3-4 FT TUE WILL INCREASE UP TO 3-5 FT TUE NIGHT-FRI.

&&

.CLIMATE...ORLANDO AND VERO BEACH HAD RECORD WARM LOWS ON SUNDAY.
HERE ARE THE RECORD WARM LOWS FOR TODAY/TOMORROW.

LOC  DATE   HI-MIN
DAB 25-MAY  75 1991
MCO 25-MAY  74 2014
MLB 25-MAY  76 1991
VRB 25-MAY  77 1991

DAB 26-MAY  73 1991
MCO 26-MAY  74 1943
MLB 26-MAY  78 2014
VRB 26-MAY  76 1991

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  85  74  86  70 /  20  10  10  10
MCO  90  73  91  70 /  30  10  20   0
MLB  86  77  86  73 /  20  10  10  10
VRB  87  75  88  72 /  20  10  10  10
LEE  92  74  91  72 /  30  10  20   0
SFB  90  72  89  69 /  20  10  20   0
ORL  90  73  89  71 /  20  10  20   0
FPR  86  75  87  70 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LASCODY
LONG TERM....WEITLICH




000
FXUS62 KMLB 250750
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
349 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT AGAIN TODAY...

TODAY-TONIGHT...LATEST WATER VAPOR SHOWS CONSIDERABLE DRYING ALOFT
OVER THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC IN ASSOCIATION WITH DEEP LAYER
ANTICYCLONE THAT WAS CENTERED A LITTLE TO OUR NORTH. BREEZY EAST
TO SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW WAS GENERATING ATLANTIC CLOUD LINES
AND ISOLATED SHOWERS BUT OVERALL THEY LOOK A BIT WEAKER THAN 24
HOURS AGO.

WITH THE DRYING ALOFT...WE WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW SHOWER CHANCES
OVER THE AREA TODAY. ENOUGH HEATING MAY OCCUR AGAIN OVER LAKE
COUNTY FOR A SMALL CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDER.

WOULD EXPECT OVERALL LOWER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO START
INFILTRATING THE AREA TONIGHT. THE MODELS DO NOT GENERATE MUCH
PRECIP OVER THE ATLANTIC AND POPS ARE LESS THAN 20 PERCENT. WILL
CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE TREASURE COAST.

LITTLE TEMPERATURE CHANGE WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW PRODUCING A
SMALLER DIURNAL RANGE THAN NORMAL. SOME LOWS IN THE MID 70S
TONIGHT COULD AGAIN FLIRT WITH RECORD WARM READINGS AT A FEW
LOCATIONS.

TUE-THU...AXIS OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION AND MAINTAIN A MODERATE TO BREEZY ONSHORE
LOW LEVEL FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. EASTERLY WINDS TAP INTO DRIER MID
LEVEL AIR OVER THE ATLANTIC THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AND
DECREASE RAIN CHANCES INTO MID WEEK. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS OVER THE INTERIOR TUE AND THEN EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WED-
THU AS PW VALUES CONTINUE TO DECREASE. WHILE A FEW ONSHORE MOVING
LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES MAINLY DURING THE NIGHT HOURS NOT ENTIRELY
OUT OF THE QUESTION...POPS REMAIN LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP OUT OF THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

ELEVATED ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP HIGHS NEAR SEASONAL NORMS AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS MORE MILD ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID-UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST TO UPPER 80S-LOW 90S
INTERIOR. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

FRI-SUN...MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT FROM LATE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NORTH OF THE REGION CONTINUING
AN ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY
BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA WITH POPS INCREASING CLOSER TO NORMAL...UP
TO 30-40 PERCENT DURING THE WEEKEND. NOT MUCH OF A CHANGE IN TEMPS
WITH HIGHS NEAR NORMAL AND OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...
MOIST ONSHORE FLOW COULD LEAD TO BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS...ESPECIALLY
IN/NEAR ISOLATED SHOWERS. OTHERWISE IT WILL VFR. EAST FLOW WILL
GUST TO AROUND 20 KNOTS AND MAYBE TO 25 KNOTS KMLB-KSUA THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY-TONIGHT...POOR CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT OPERATION.
EASTERLY WINDS LOOK RATHER STEADY NEAR 15 KNOTS WHICH WILL PRODUCE
CHOPPY SEAS NEAR 5 FEET. EXERCISE CAUTION STATEMENTS WILL BE
NECESSARY ESPECIALLY OVER THE GULF STREAM.

TUE-FRI...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING NORTH OF THE REGION WILL
MAINTAIN A MODERATE ONSHORE BREEZE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK WITH WIND
SPEEDS GENERALLY 10-15 KNOTS INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KNOTS AT TIMES
OFFSHORE. SEAS 3-4 FT TUE WILL INCREASE UP TO 3-5 FT TUE NIGHT-FRI.

&&

.CLIMATE...ORLANDO AND VERO BEACH HAD RECORD WARM LOWS ON SUNDAY.
HERE ARE THE RECORD WARM LOWS FOR TODAY/TOMORROW.

LOC  DATE   HI-MIN
DAB 25-MAY  75 1991
MCO 25-MAY  74 2014
MLB 25-MAY  76 1991
VRB 25-MAY  77 1991

DAB 26-MAY  73 1991
MCO 26-MAY  74 1943
MLB 26-MAY  78 2014
VRB 26-MAY  76 1991

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  85  74  86  70 /  20  10  10  10
MCO  90  73  91  70 /  30  10  20   0
MLB  86  77  86  73 /  20  10  10  10
VRB  87  75  88  72 /  20  10  10  10
LEE  92  74  91  72 /  30  10  20   0
SFB  90  72  89  69 /  20  10  20   0
ORL  90  73  89  71 /  20  10  20   0
FPR  86  75  87  70 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LASCODY
LONG TERM....WEITLICH





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