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000
FXUS62 KMLB 230018
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
818 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK COOL FRONT IS CURRENTLY PUSHING SOUTHWARD
INTO SOUTH FLORIDA THIS EVENING. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS HAVE
INCREASED BEHIND THE FRONT AND ALSO WITH THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE THAT PUSHED WEST THROUGH THE INTERIOR. HOWEVER WIND SPEEDS
SHOULD DECREASE AND BECOME MORE NORTHERLY OVER LAND AREAS PAST
MIDNIGHT. DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT TO KEEP RAIN CHANCES OUT OF
THE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. HOWEVER MAY STILL SEE A
FEW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE GULF STREAM WATERS OF THE
TREASURE COAST LATE TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW INCREASES
OVER THIS REGION. HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN THE GREATEST
ACROSS OKEECHOBEE COUNTY AND THE TREASURE COAST WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES EXPECTED FROM THE ORLANDO AREA NORTHWARD. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTHWEST OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR AND MID/UPPER 60S
ALONG THE COAST SOUTH OF THE CAPE.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS.


&&

.MARINE...INCREASING NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT UP
TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS OFFSHORE WILL PRODUCE CHOPPY SEAS UP TO 6 FEET
OVER THE GULF STREAM LATER TONIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN SMALL CRAFT
EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES FOR THIS PORTION OF THE WATERS.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

WEITLICH/PENDERGRAST









000
FXUS62 KMLB 230018
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
818 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK COOL FRONT IS CURRENTLY PUSHING SOUTHWARD
INTO SOUTH FLORIDA THIS EVENING. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS HAVE
INCREASED BEHIND THE FRONT AND ALSO WITH THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE THAT PUSHED WEST THROUGH THE INTERIOR. HOWEVER WIND SPEEDS
SHOULD DECREASE AND BECOME MORE NORTHERLY OVER LAND AREAS PAST
MIDNIGHT. DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT TO KEEP RAIN CHANCES OUT OF
THE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. HOWEVER MAY STILL SEE A
FEW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE GULF STREAM WATERS OF THE
TREASURE COAST LATE TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW INCREASES
OVER THIS REGION. HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN THE GREATEST
ACROSS OKEECHOBEE COUNTY AND THE TREASURE COAST WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES EXPECTED FROM THE ORLANDO AREA NORTHWARD. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTHWEST OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR AND MID/UPPER 60S
ALONG THE COAST SOUTH OF THE CAPE.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS.


&&

.MARINE...INCREASING NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT UP
TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS OFFSHORE WILL PRODUCE CHOPPY SEAS UP TO 6 FEET
OVER THE GULF STREAM LATER TONIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN SMALL CRAFT
EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES FOR THIS PORTION OF THE WATERS.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

WEITLICH/PENDERGRAST









000
FXUS62 KMLB 221854
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
254 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT-TONIGHT...LATEST NCEP SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A COLD FRONT
OVER OUR NORTHERN FORECAST AREA/NORTH LAKE VOLUSIA COUNTIES WITH A
DISSIPATING STATIONARY BOUNDARY OVER THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA
INDIAN RIVER SOUTHERN OSCEOLA COUNTIES. THE COLD FRONT HAS BEGUN TO
SLOW ITS FORWARD PROGRESS PAST COUPLE OF HOURS AS THE BATTLE BETWEEN
LOWER PRESSURES OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS TRIES TO MIGRATE NORTH AND
HIGHER PRESSURES OVER NORTH FLORIDA TRIES TO PUSH SOUTH. THE COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO CLEAR EAST CENTRAL AND MOST OF SOUTHERN FLORIDA
OVERNIGHT AND BE OVER THE KEYS DURING THE DAYTIME THURSDAY MORNING.
COOLER BUT MORE IMPORTANTLY DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCING RAIN CHANCES OVER THE
INTERIOR AND ROUGHLY FORT PIERCE NORTH THURSDAY. LOWS FROM THE UPPER
50S NORTH AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 4/DAYTONA BEACH TO THE LOWER 60S
ORLANDO SANFORD SOUTH AND EAST TO INTERSTATE 95. LOOKING AT MID 60S
EAST OF INTERSTATE 95 SOUTH BREVARD TO MARTIN COUNTY.

THU-THU NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES EAST AND GIVES WAY TO A
SHORT WAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
NEAR THE NORTHEAST U.S. COAST. AT THE SAME TIME...LOW PRESSURE/TD 9
IN THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE MOVES SLOWLY EAST INTO THE NORTHWEST
CARIBBEAN SEA/YUCATAN CHANNEL. EXTENSIVE MID AND UPPER MOISTURE
RIBBON EXTENDS FROM THE AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE AROUND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA NORTHEAST INTO THE ATLANTIC EAST OF THE BAHAMA ISLANDS.
SURFACE REFLECTION OF THE MOISTURE RIBBON AND THE MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MOVING NORTHEAST AND AWAY THE AREA AROUND TD9 SHOULD
KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. RAIN CHANCES
MEAGER WITH THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES SO FAR
TO THE SOUTH LEAVES A 20 POP FOR MARTIN AND SOUTH SAINT LUCIE
COUNTIES AND LESS THAN 15 PERCENT TO THE NORTH. HIGHS AGAIN LOW MID
80S. FRIDAY MORNING LOWS FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH AND WEST OF
INTERSTATE 4/DAYTONA BEACH TO THE LOWER 60S ORLANDO SANFORD SOUTH
AND EAST TO INTERSTATE 95. LOOKING AT MID 60S EAST OF INTERSTATE 95
SOUTH BREVARD TO MARTIN COUNTY.

FRI-FRI NIGHT...AN UPPER IMPULSE WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. AND FLORIDA PENINSULA OVER THIS PERIOD. ENERGY WILL
ALSO TRAVERSE THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA FROM THE SOUTHWEST RIDING
NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THE IMPULSE PULLS DEEPER
MOISTURE NORTH RAISING POPS FRIDAY THEN POPS LOWER AS THE MID LEVEL
ENERGY LIFTS NORTHEAST. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE LOWER 80S. LOWS UPPER
50S NORTH AND WEST OF DAYTONA INTERSTATE 4 TO THE LOW 60S SOUTH TO
LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND JUPITER INLET.

PREVIOUS ZONES DISCUSSION
SAT-TUE...THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED IMPULSE WILL CONTINUE ITS
SOUTHWARD DIVE SOUTH AND EAST AWAY FROM EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA ON SAT.
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND FLOW ALOFT FOLLOWS SAT-SUN UNTIL A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE PARKS ACROSS THE AREA MON-TUE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
SLOW TO BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH THE CENTER HAVING PULLED OFF OF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY TUE. A LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE COMPONENT
OF WIND IS FORECAST THROUGH THIS TIME. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF WANT TO
BRING A DISTURBANCE OUT OF THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN TO NEAR WEST CUBA
BY THE END OF THIS PERIOD WITH THE GFS MUCH STRONGER WITH THIS
FEATURE.

SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY LINGER AROUND THE TREASURE COAST ON
SAT WITH DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING ON SUN. WITH DEEPER ONSHORE FLOW
RETURNING EARLY NEXT WEEK WE MAY SEE INCREASING CHANCES FOR
DEVELOPING COASTAL SHOWERS MON-TUE TIME FRAME. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
LOWER 80S WITH 60S FOR LOWS...EXCEPT COOLER LOCATIONS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR WHICH MAY REALIZE UPPER 50S.


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR. BKN-OVC AOA FL120 SOUTHERN TERMINALS.


&&

.MARINE...
CURRENT-TONIGHT...COLD FRONT FORECAST TO CLEAR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA
AND EVENTUALLY BECOMES STATIONARY OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN THE COASTAL WATERS RESULTS IN NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS AND 5 TO OCCASIONAL 6 FOOT SEAS IN
THE GULF STREAM.

THU-FRI...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO AND NORTH
GULF OF MEXICO WILL PRODUCE NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS REACHING 15 TO
20 KNOTS OFFSHORE. SEAS TO 6 FEET IN THE GULF STREAM AND 3 TO 5 THE
REST OF THE COASTAL WATERS.

PREVIOUS MARINE DISCUSSION
SAT-SUN...THE PREVIOUS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN
PENINSULA WILL GRADUALLY PULL AWAY WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN THE
N/NE WINDS. SEAS WILL ALSO SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD FROM THE WEST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MIN RHS WILL DROP TO 35-40 PCT OVER THE NRN INTERIOR THU WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. NO HEADLINES NEEDED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  59  77  58  79 /   0   0  10  10
MCO  61  80  60  82 /   0   0  10  10
MLB  67  79  65  81 /   0  10  10  20
VRB  68  81  68  82 /  10  10  20  20
LEE  58  81  57  82 /   0   0  10  10
SFB  61  80  59  82 /   0   0  10  10
ORL  63  80  61  82 /   0   0  10  10
FPR  67  80  69  81 /  20  10  20  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

IMPACT WX...BLOTTMAN
FORECASTS...WIMMER









000
FXUS62 KMLB 221450
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1050 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE NR 3...QUITE A DEW POINT SPREAD FROM THE MID/UPPER 50S IN
THE COUNTIES JUST NORTH OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE UPPER 60S AND
LOW 70S MARTIN PALM BEACH COUNTIES. WEST PALM BEACH TWDR SHOWING
LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP FALLING OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES WHILE THE
06Z GFS MAV MOS POPS LOOK TOO HIGH GIVEN THE DRY AIR ADVECTING DOWN
THE PENINSULA THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS. THE LATEST RUC13 RUN WAS
INDICATING THAT THE DRIER AIR SHOULD REACH SAINT LUCIE AND NORTH
OKEECHOBEE LATE AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD TEND TO LIMIT ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIP TO OKEECHOBEE...SAINT LUCIE AND MARTIN COUNTIES THIS
AFTERNOON. UP STREAM VORTICITY MAXES AND THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF
AN EXITING 250MB JET MAX WILL KEEP SKIES CONSIDERABLE TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. LOW LEVEL WINDS SHIFTING FROM THE
NORTH TO THE NORTHEAST WILL BRING A MOIST BUT MORE STABLE MARINE AIR
MASS ASHORE NORTH OF VERO BEACH WHERE AFTERNOON POPS ARE LESS THAN
15 PERCENT...PRECIP NOT FORECAST.

.UPDATE NR 2...REMOVE FOG FROM APPLICABLE ZONES. ANOTHER UPDATE NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION TO POSSIBLY REMOVE PRECIP FROM INDIAN RIVER
OKEECHOBEE SAINT LUCIE AND MARTIN COUNTIES IF DRY AIR MOVES DOWN
THAT FAR.

.UPDATE...SENT SOME UPDATES TO ZFP AND GRIDS THIS MORNING TO ADD
PATCHY FOG MENTION. SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED FROM
MELBOURNE TO THE TREASURE COAST IN INDIAN RIVER AND SAINT LUCIE
COUNTIES...IN THE PREFRONTAL AIRMASS THAT STILL HAS FAIRLY HIGH
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE. BOUNDARY LAYER DRYING AND SOME MORNING SUN
SHOULD ALLOW THE FOG TO BURN OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER 9 AM AS LOW
LVL FLOW BECOMES NW/N INTO MID MORNING.

TODAY...CLOSED MID LAYER LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD OFF THE MID
ATLC TODAY WITH A TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE SFC LOW
OFFSHORE PUSHING SOUTHWARD THROUGH NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS
MORNING AND TOWARD THE SRN TREASURE COAST AND OKEECHOBEE COUNTY THIS
AFTERNOON. LOW LVL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONT AND SOME WANING LIFT
FROM A DEPARTING UPPER LVL JET SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO AGAIN SPARK
SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS FAR SRN PORTIONS OF E CENTRAL FL THIS
AFTERNOON WHERE PWATS WILL REMAIN FROM 1.7 TO 1.8 INCHES ACROSS FAR
SRN SECTIONS. WILL KEEP CENTRAL/NRN SECTIONS DRY WITH CONSIDERABLE
UPPER LEVEL CIRRUS INTO THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE THE CIRRUS BAND STARTS
TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO
15 MPH THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 ALONG THE VOLUSIA COUNTY
COAST TO THE MID 80S ACROSS THE SRN INTERIOR.

TONIGHT...MODELS INDICATE SFC BOUNDARY SHOULD SLIP SOUTH OF MARTIN
COUNTY THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT LINGERING MOISTURE ACROSS FAR SRN
SECTIONS INTO THE EVENING WILL SUPPORT 20-30 PCT CHANCE FOR SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SRN SECTIONS INTO THE EVENING HOURS...AND
SHOWER CHANCES ACROSS MARTIN COUNTY THROUGH THE NIGHT. CENTRAL AND
NRN SECTIONS SHOULD SEE CLEARING AS UPPER LEVEL CIRRUS THAT HAS BEEN
OVER THE AREA FOR AWHILE SHIFTS SLOWLY TO THE SE. LOWS WILL DROP
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S NORTH 65-70 ACROSS S CSTL SECTIONS.

THU-THU NIGHT...A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE
NORTHEAST U.S. COAST SLOWLY PULLS AWAY NORTHEASTWARD WHILE RATHER
FLAT ZONAL FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. BROAD
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE ARKLATECH
REGION. A FRESH NORTHEAST WIND FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL BE FELT
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS DRIER
CONDITIONS SOUTHWARD SO HAVE PULLED POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES FOR THIS PERIOD AS DEEPEST MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH TIGHT
GRADIENT REMAINS STYMIED OVER THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA.

HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND
60 DEGREES NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR TO THE LOW/MID 60S FURTHER
SOUTH OVER THE INTERIOR...EXCEPT MID/UPPER 60S COCOA BEACH SOUTH
THROUGH THE TREASURE COAST.

FRI-FRI NIGHT...AN UPPER IMPULSE WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. AND FLORIDA PENINSULA OVER THIS PERIOD. ENERGY WILL
ALSO TRAVERSE THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA FROM THE SOUTHWEST RIDING
NORTHEAST ALONG A STATIONARY BOUNDARY WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE THERE.
THERE WILL REMAIN A FINE LINE OF DEEPER LEVEL MOISTURE SOUTHWARD AND
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW STILL WITH EXACT PLACEMENT/STRENGTH OF
FEATURES TO GO ALONG WITH TIMING. WILL CONTINUE A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION ALONG THE TREASURE COAST AND SOUTHERN OKEECHOBEE
COUNTY WITH 20 PERCENT POPS FURTHER NORTHWARD TOWARDS
MELBOURNE...BUT JUST SOUTH OF KISSIMMEE.

SAT-TUE...THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED IMPULSE WILL CONTINUE ITS
SOUTHWARD DIVE SOUTH AND EAST AWAY FROM EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA ON SAT.
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND FLOW ALOFT FOLLOWS SAT-SUN UNTIL A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE PARKS ACROSS THE AREA MON-TUE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
SLOW TO BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH THE CENTER HAVING PULLED OFF OF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY TUE. A LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE COMPONENT
OF WIND IS FORECAST THROUGH THIS TIME. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF WANT TO
BRING A DISTURBANCE OUT OF THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN TO NEAR WEST CUBA
BY THE END OF THIS PERIOD WITH THE GFS MUCH STRONGER WITH THIS
FEATURE.

SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY LINGER AROUND THE TREASURE COAST ON
SAT WITH DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING ON SUN. WITH DEEPER ONSHORE FLOW
RETURNING EARLY NEXT WEEK WE MAY SEE INCREASING CHANCES FOR
DEVELOPING COASTAL SHOWERS MON-TUE TIMEFRAME. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
LOWER 80S WITH 60S FOR LOWS...EXCEPT COOLER LOCATIONS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR WHICH MAY REALIZE UPPER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPATE...VFR WITH SCT AOA FL120 NORTH TERMINALS AND BKN-OVC AOA FL120
SOUTHERN TAF SITES. TEMPO MVFR IN/NEAR ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS VERO BEACH SOUTH.

PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION
SOME SCT-BKN STRATUS AND PATCHY IFR FOG IS DEVELOPING FROM
KSFB-KMCO. SCT-BKN LOW CLOUDS WILL CONT TO DVLP ACROSS NRN INTERIOR
AREAS THRU 11Z. SFC FRONT PUSHING SOUTH AND DEVELOPING DRIER
NORTHERLY FLOW SHOULD ALLOW STRATUS/BR TO DISSIPATE FAIRLY SOON
AFTER SUNRISE. AS SFC FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF KMLB THIS AFTERNOON THERE
WILL BE A CHC FOR SHRA/TSRA FROM KFPR-KSUA. INCLUDED VCSH AT
KFPR/KSUA THIS AFTN FOR NOW. MAY NEED TO ADD TSRA TO FCST WITH LATER
UPDTS.

&&

.MARINE...
CURRENT-THIS AFTERNOON...BUOYS RECORDING NORTHWEST WINDS NORTH OF
THE CAPE AND WEST NORTHWEST WINDS CAPE TO FORT PIERCE INLET WHERE
THE FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH. STILL SOUTHWEST SOUTH OF FORT PIERCE
INLET BUT IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST IN THE
AFTERNOON PROVIDED THE FRONT MOVES FAR ENOUGH SOUTH. BUOY/CMAN WINS
10 TO 12 KNOTS MAX OUT TO 120NM/BUOY 41010. FORECASTING A NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WIND INCREASE LATE AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN
THE PENINSULA AND COASTAL WATERS.

UPDATED WINDS AND RE RUNNING A SHORT SWAN WAVE FORECAST FOR THE
AFTERNOON TO SEE IF THERE IS ENOUGH OF A DIFFERENCE TO CHANGE WAVE
HEIGHTS FOR THE AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS MARINE DISCUSSION
SFC FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE NRN WATERS THIS MORNING AND SRN
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15
KNOTS OFFSHORE WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 4-5 FT AND HIGHER IN THE GULF
STREAM. WILL RAISE SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES FOR LATE
AFTN AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE OFFSHORE GULF STREAM WATERS.

THU-THU NIGHT...NE WINDS 10-15 KTS...PERHAPS SLIGHTLY HIGHER AWAY
FROM THE COAST SOUTH OF VERO BEACH. SEAS 2-3 FT NEAR SHORE AND 3-4
FT GULF STREAM/OFFSHORE.

FRI-FRI NIGHT...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE SOUTHERN FL PENINSULA/FL STRAITS AND HIGH PRESSURE TRYING
TO NOSE IN FROM THE NORTH. STILL MAINLY NE WINDS APPROACHING 15 KTS
AWAY FROM THE COAST BUT FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 15-20 KTS SOUTH FROM
THE CAPE DURING THE DAY THRU FRI EVENING. CAUTIONARY STATEMENTS MAY
BE NECESSARY HERE. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD TO 4-5 FT SOUTH OF FT.
PIERCE DURING THE DAY AND PERHAPS 5-6 FT FRI NIGHT GULF STREAM/WELL
OFFSHORE FROM SEBASTIAN INLET SOUTHWARD.

SAT-SUN...THE PREVIOUS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN
PENINSULA WILL GRADUALLY PULL AWAY WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN THE
N/NE WINDS. SEAS WILL ALSO SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD FROM THE WEST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MIN RHS WILL DROP TO 35-40 PCT OVER THE NRN INTERIOR TODAY WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. NO HEADLINES NEEDED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  79  58  78  59 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  84  61  81  61 /   0   0   0  10
MLB  82  64  79  66 /  10  10  10  10
VRB  83  67  81  68 /  20  10  10  10
LEE  83  58  81  58 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  83  60  81  60 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  84  62  82  62 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  83  68  80  68 /  30  20  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

FORECASTS...WIMMER
IMPACT WX...BLOTTMAN







000
FXUS62 KMLB 221300
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
9 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE NR 2...REMOVE FOG FROM APPLICABLE ZONES. ANOTHER UPDATE NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION TO POSSIBLY REMOVE PRECIP FROM INDIAN RIVER
OKEECHOBEE SAINT LUCIE AND MARTIN COUNTIES IF DRY AIR MOVES DOWN
THAT FAR.

.UPDATE...SENT SOME UPDATES TO ZFP AND GRIDS THIS MORNING TO ADD
PATCHY FOG MENTION. SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED FROM
MELBOURNE TO THE TREASURE COAST IN INDIAN RIVER AND SAINT LUCIE
COUNTIES...IN THE PREFRONTAL AIRMASS THAT STILL HAS FAIRLY HIGH
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE. BOUNDARY LAYER DRYING AND SOME MORNING SUN
SHOULD ALLOW THE FOG TO BURN OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER 9 AM AS LOW
LVL FLOW BECOMES NW/N INTO MID MORNING.

TODAY...CLOSED MID LAYER LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD OFF THE MID
ATLC TODAY WITH A TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE SFC LOW
OFFSHORE PUSHING SOUTHWARD THROUGH NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS
MORNING AND TOWARD THE SRN TREASURE COAST AND OKEECHOBEE COUNTY THIS
AFTERNOON. LOW LVL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONT AND SOME WANING LIFT
FROM A DEPARTING UPPER LVL JET SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO AGAIN SPARK
SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS FAR SRN PORTIONS OF E CENTRAL FL THIS
AFTERNOON WHERE PWATS WILL REMAIN FROM 1.7 TO 1.8 INCHES ACROSS FAR
SRN SECTIONS. WILL KEEP CENTRAL/NRN SECTIONS DRY WITH CONSIDERABLE
UPPER LEVEL CIRRUS INTO THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE THE CIRRUS BAND STARTS
TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO
15 MPH THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 ALONG THE VOLUSIA COUNTY
COAST TO THE MID 80S ACROSS THE SRN INTERIOR.

TONIGHT...MODELS INDICATE SFC BOUNDARY SHOULD SLIP SOUTH OF MARTIN
COUNTY THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT LINGERING MOISTURE ACROSS FAR SRN
SECTIONS INTO THE EVENING WILL SUPPORT 20-30 PCT CHANCE FOR SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SRN SECTIONS INTO THE EVENING HOURS...AND
SHOWER CHANCES ACROSS MARTIN COUNTY THROUGH THE NIGHT. CENTRAL AND
NRN SECTIONS SHOULD SEE CLEARING AS UPPER LEVEL CIRRUS THAT HAS BEEN
OVER THE AREA FOR AWHILE SHIFTS SLOWLY TO THE SE. LOWS WILL DROP
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S NORTH 65-70 ACROSS S CSTL SECTIONS.

THU-THU NIGHT...A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE
NORTHEAST U.S. COAST SLOWLY PULLS AWAY NORTHEASTWARD WHILE RATHER
FLAT ZONAL FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. BROAD
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE ARKLATECH
REGION. A FRESH NORTHEAST WIND FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL BE FELT
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS DRIER
CONDITIONS SOUTHWARD SO HAVE PULLED POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES FOR THIS PERIOD AS DEEPEST MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH TIGHT
GRADIENT REMAINS STYMIED OVER THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA.

HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND
60 DEGREES NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR TO THE LOW/MID 60S FURTHER
SOUTH OVER THE INTERIOR...EXCEPT MID/UPPER 60S COCOA BEACH SOUTH
THROUGH THE TREASURE COAST.

FRI-FRI NIGHT...AN UPPER IMPULSE WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. AND FLORIDA PENINSULA OVER THIS PERIOD. ENERGY WILL
ALSO TRAVERSE THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA FROM THE SOUTHWEST RIDING
NORTHEAST ALONG A STATIONARY BOUNDARY WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE THERE.
THERE WILL REMAIN A FINE LINE OF DEEPER LEVEL MOISTURE SOUTHWARD AND
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW STILL WITH EXACT PLACEMENT/STRENGTH OF
FEATURES TO GO ALONG WITH TIMING. WILL CONTINUE A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION ALONG THE TREASURE COAST AND SOUTHERN OKEECHOBEE
COUNTY WITH 20 PERCENT POPS FURTHER NORTHWARD TOWARDS
MELBOURNE...BUT JUST SOUTH OF KISSIMMEE.

SAT-TUE...THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED IMPULSE WILL CONTINUE ITS
SOUTHWARD DIVE SOUTH AND EAST AWAY FROM EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA ON SAT.
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND FLOW ALOFT FOLLOWS SAT-SUN UNTIL A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE PARKS ACROSS THE AREA MON-TUE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
SLOW TO BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH THE CENTER HAVING PULLED OFF OF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY TUE. A LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE COMPONENT
OF WIND IS FORECAST THROUGH THIS TIME. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF WANT TO
BRING A DISTURBANCE OUT OF THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN TO NEAR WEST CUBA
BY THE END OF THIS PERIOD WITH THE GFS MUCH STRONGER WITH THIS
FEATURE.

SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY LINGER AROUND THE TREASURE COAST ON
SAT WITH DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING ON SUN. WITH DEEPER ONSHORE FLOW
RETURNING EARLY NEXT WEEK WE MAY SEE INCREASING CHANCES FOR
DEVELOPING COASTAL SHOWERS MON-TUE TIMEFRAME. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
LOWER 80S WITH 60S FOR LOWS...EXCEPT COOLER LOCATIONS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR WHICH MAY REALIZE UPPER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOME SCT-BKN STRATUS AND PATCHY IFR FOG IS DEVELOPING FROM
KSFB-KMCO. SCT-BKN LOW CLOUDS WILL CONT TO DVLP ACROSS NRN INTERIOR
AREAS THRU 11Z. SFC FRONT PUSHING SOUTH AND DEVELOPING DRIER
NORTHERLY FLOW SHOULD ALLOW STRATUS/BR TO DISSIPATE FAIRLY SOON
AFTER SUNRISE. AS SFC FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF KMLB THIS AFTERNOON THERE
WILL BE A CHC FOR SHRA/TSRA FROM KFPR-KSUA. INCLUDED VCSH AT
KFPR/KSUA THIS AFTN FOR NOW. MAY NEED TO ADD TSRA TO FCST WITH LATER
UPDTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SFC FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE NRN WATERS THIS MORNING AND SRN
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15
KNOTS OFFSHORE WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 4-5 FT AND HIGHER IN THE GULF
STREAM. WILL RAISE SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES FOR LATE
AFTN AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE OFFSHORE GULF STREAM WATERS.

THU-THU NIGHT...NE WINDS 10-15 KTS...PERHAPS SLIGHTLY HIGHER AWAY
FROM THE COAST SOUTH OF VERO BEACH. SEAS 2-3 FT NEAR SHORE AND 3-4
FT GULF STREAM/OFFSHORE.

FRI-FRI NIGHT...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE SOUTHERN FL PENINSULA/FL STRAITS AND HIGH PRESSURE TRYING
TO NOSE IN FROM THE NORTH. STILL MAINLY NE WINDS APPROACHING 15 KTS
AWAY FROM THE COAST BUT FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 15-20 KTS SOUTH FROM
THE CAPE DURING THE DAY THRU FRI EVENING. CAUTIONARY STATEMENTS MAY
BE NECESSARY HERE. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD TO 4-5 FT SOUTH OF FT.
PIERCE DURING THE DAY AND PERHAPS 5-6 FT FRI NIGHT GULF STREAM/WELL
OFFSHORE FROM SEBASTIAN INLET SOUTHWARD.

SAT-SUN...THE PREVIOUS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN
PENINSULA WILL GRADUALLY PULL AWAY WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN THE
N/NE WINDS. SEAS WILL ALSO SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD FROM THE WEST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MIN RHS WILL DROP TO 35-40 PCT OVER THE NRN INTERIOR TODAY WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. NO HEADLINES NEEDED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  79  58  78  59 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  84  61  81  61 /   0   0   0  10
MLB  82  64  79  66 /  10  10  10  10
VRB  83  67  81  68 /  20  10  10  10
LEE  83  58  81  58 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  83  60  81  60 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  84  62  82  62 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  83  68  80  68 /  30  20  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

FORECASTS...WIMMER
IMPACT WX...BLOTTMAN







000
FXUS62 KMLB 221016
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
615 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...SENT SOME UPDATES TO ZFP AND GRIDS THIS MORNING TO ADD
PATCHY FOG MENTION. SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED FROM
MELBOURNE TO THE TREASURE COAST IN INDIAN RIVER AND SAINT LUCIE
COUNTIES...IN THE PREFRONTAL AIRMASS THAT STILL HAS FAIRLY HIGH
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE. BOUNDARY LAYER DRYING AND SOME MORNING SUN
SHOULD ALLOW THE FOG TO BURN OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER 9 AM AS LOW
LVL FLOW BECOMES NW/N INTO MID MORNING.

TODAY...CLOSED MID LAYER LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD OFF THE MID
ATLC TODAY WITH A TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE SFC LOW
OFFSHORE PUSHING SOUTHWARD THROUGH NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS
MORNING AND TOWARD THE SRN TREASURE COAST AND OKEECHOBEE COUNTY THIS
AFTERNOON. LOW LVL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONT AND SOME WANING LIFT
FROM A DEPARTING UPPER LVL JET SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO AGAIN SPARK
SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS FAR SRN PORTIONS OF E CENTRAL FL THIS
AFTERNOON WHERE PWATS WILL REMAIN FROM 1.7 TO 1.8 INCHES ACROSS FAR
SRN SECTIONS. WILL KEEP CENTRAL/NRN SECTIONS DRY WITH CONSIDERABLE
UPPER LEVEL CIRRUS INTO THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE THE CIRRUS BAND STARTS
TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO
15 MPH THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 ALONG THE VOLUSIA COUNTY
COAST TO THE MID 80S ACROSS THE SRN INTERIOR.

TONIGHT...MODELS INDICATE SFC BOUNDARY SHOULD SLIP SOUTH OF MARTIN
COUNTY THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT LINGERING MOISTURE ACROSS FAR SRN
SECTIONS INTO THE EVENING WILL SUPPORT 20-30 PCT CHANCE FOR SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SRN SECTIONS INTO THE EVENING HOURS...AND
SHOWER CHANCES ACROSS MARTIN COUNTY THROUGH THE NIGHT. CENTRAL AND
NRN SECTIONS SHOULD SEE CLEARING AS UPPER LEVEL CIRRUS THAT HAS BEEN
OVER THE AREA FOR AWHILE SHIFTS SLOWLY TO THE SE. LOWS WILL DROP
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S NORTH 65-70 ACROSS S CSTL SECTIONS.

THU-THU NIGHT...A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE
NORTHEAST U.S. COAST SLOWLY PULLS AWAY NORTHEASTWARD WHILE RATHER
FLAT ZONAL FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. BROAD
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE ARKLATECH
REGION. A FRESH NORTHEAST WIND FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL BE FELT
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS DRIER
CONDITIONS SOUTHWARD SO HAVE PULLED POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES FOR THIS PERIOD AS DEEPEST MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH TIGHT
GRADIENT REMAINS STYMIED OVER THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA.

HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND
60 DEGREES NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR TO THE LOW/MID 60S FURTHER
SOUTH OVER THE INTERIOR...EXCEPT MID/UPPER 60S COCOA BEACH SOUTH
THROUGH THE TREASURE COAST.

FRI-FRI NIGHT...AN UPPER IMPULSE WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. AND FLORIDA PENINSULA OVER THIS PERIOD. ENERGY WILL
ALSO TRAVERSE THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA FROM THE SOUTHWEST RIDING
NORTHEAST ALONG A STATIONARY BOUNDARY WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE THERE.
THERE WILL REMAIN A FINE LINE OF DEEPER LEVEL MOISTURE SOUTHWARD AND
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW STILL WITH EXACT PLACEMENT/STRENGTH OF
FEATURES TO GO ALONG WITH TIMING. WILL CONTINUE A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION ALONG THE TREASURE COAST AND SOUTHERN OKEECHOBEE
COUNTY WITH 20 PERCENT POPS FURTHER NORTHWARD TOWARDS
MELBOURNE...BUT JUST SOUTH OF KISSIMMEE.

SAT-TUE...THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED IMPULSE WILL CONTINUE ITS
SOUTHWARD DIVE SOUTH AND EAST AWAY FROM EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA ON SAT.
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND FLOW ALOFT FOLLOWS SAT-SUN UNTIL A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE PARKS ACROSS THE AREA MON-TUE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
SLOW TO BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH THE CENTER HAVING PULLED OFF OF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY TUE. A LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE COMPONENT
OF WIND IS FORECAST THROUGH THIS TIME. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF WANT TO
BRING A DISTURBANCE OUT OF THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN TO NEAR WEST CUBA
BY THE END OF THIS PERIOD WITH THE GFS MUCH STRONGER WITH THIS
FEATURE.

SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY LINGER AROUND THE TREASURE COAST ON
SAT WITH DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING ON SUN. WITH DEEPER ONSHORE FLOW
RETURNING EARLY NEXT WEEK WE MAY SEE INCREASING CHANCES FOR
DEVELOPING COASTAL SHOWERS MON-TUE TIMEFRAME. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
LOWER 80S WITH 60S FOR LOWS...EXCEPT COOLER LOCATIONS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR WHICH MAY REALIZE UPPER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOME SCT-BKN STRATUS AND PATCHY IFR FOG IS DEVELOPING FROM
KSFB-KMCO. SCT-BKN LOW CLOUDS WILL CONT TO DVLP ACROSS NRN INTERIOR
AREAS THRU 11Z. SFC FRONT PUSHING SOUTH AND DEVELOPING DRIER
NORTHERLY FLOW SHOULD ALLOW STRATUS/BR TO DISSIPATE FAIRLY SOON
AFTER SUNRISE. AS SFC FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF KMLB THIS AFTERNOON THERE
WILL BE A CHC FOR SHRA/TSRA FROM KFPR-KSUA. INCLUDED VCSH AT
KFPR/KSUA THIS AFTN FOR NOW. MAY NEED TO ADD TSRA TO FCST WITH LATER
UPDTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SFC FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE NRN WATERS THIS MORNING AND SRN
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15
KNOTS OFFSHORE WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 4-5 FT AND HIGHER IN THE GULF
STREAM. WILL RAISE SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES FOR LATE
AFTN AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE OFFSHORE GULF STREAM WATERS.

THU-THU NIGHT...NE WINDS 10-15 KTS...PERHAPS SLIGHTLY HIGHER AWAY
FROM THE COAST SOUTH OF VERO BEACH. SEAS 2-3 FT NEAR SHORE AND 3-4
FT GULF STREAM/OFFSHORE.

FRI-FRI NIGHT...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE SOUTHERN FL PENINSULA/FL STRAITS AND HIGH PRESSURE TRYING
TO NOSE IN FROM THE NORTH. STILL MAINLY NE WINDS APPROACHING 15 KTS
AWAY FROM THE COAST BUT FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 15-20 KTS SOUTH FROM
THE CAPE DURING THE DAY THRU FRI EVENING. CAUTIONARY STATEMENTS MAY
BE NECESSARY HERE. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD TO 4-5 FT SOUTH OF FT.
PIERCE DURING THE DAY AND PERHAPS 5-6 FT FRI NIGHT GULF STREAM/WELL
OFFSHORE FROM SEBASTIAN INLET SOUTHWARD.

SAT-SUN...THE PREVIOUS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN
PENINSULA WILL GRADUALLY PULL AWAY WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN THE
N/NE WINDS. SEAS WILL ALSO SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD FROM THE WEST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MIN RHS WILL DROP TO 35-40 PCT OVER THE NRN INTERIOR TODAY WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. NO HEADLINES NEEDED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  79  58  78  59 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  84  61  81  61 /   0   0   0  10
MLB  82  64  79  66 /  10  10  10  10
VRB  83  67  81  68 /  20  10  10  10
LEE  83  58  81  58 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  83  60  81  60 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  84  62  82  62 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  83  68  80  68 /  30  20  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...VOLKMER
LONG TERM....SEDLOCK








000
FXUS62 KMLB 221016
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
615 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...SENT SOME UPDATES TO ZFP AND GRIDS THIS MORNING TO ADD
PATCHY FOG MENTION. SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED FROM
MELBOURNE TO THE TREASURE COAST IN INDIAN RIVER AND SAINT LUCIE
COUNTIES...IN THE PREFRONTAL AIRMASS THAT STILL HAS FAIRLY HIGH
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE. BOUNDARY LAYER DRYING AND SOME MORNING SUN
SHOULD ALLOW THE FOG TO BURN OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER 9 AM AS LOW
LVL FLOW BECOMES NW/N INTO MID MORNING.

TODAY...CLOSED MID LAYER LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD OFF THE MID
ATLC TODAY WITH A TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE SFC LOW
OFFSHORE PUSHING SOUTHWARD THROUGH NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS
MORNING AND TOWARD THE SRN TREASURE COAST AND OKEECHOBEE COUNTY THIS
AFTERNOON. LOW LVL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONT AND SOME WANING LIFT
FROM A DEPARTING UPPER LVL JET SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO AGAIN SPARK
SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS FAR SRN PORTIONS OF E CENTRAL FL THIS
AFTERNOON WHERE PWATS WILL REMAIN FROM 1.7 TO 1.8 INCHES ACROSS FAR
SRN SECTIONS. WILL KEEP CENTRAL/NRN SECTIONS DRY WITH CONSIDERABLE
UPPER LEVEL CIRRUS INTO THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE THE CIRRUS BAND STARTS
TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO
15 MPH THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 ALONG THE VOLUSIA COUNTY
COAST TO THE MID 80S ACROSS THE SRN INTERIOR.

TONIGHT...MODELS INDICATE SFC BOUNDARY SHOULD SLIP SOUTH OF MARTIN
COUNTY THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT LINGERING MOISTURE ACROSS FAR SRN
SECTIONS INTO THE EVENING WILL SUPPORT 20-30 PCT CHANCE FOR SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SRN SECTIONS INTO THE EVENING HOURS...AND
SHOWER CHANCES ACROSS MARTIN COUNTY THROUGH THE NIGHT. CENTRAL AND
NRN SECTIONS SHOULD SEE CLEARING AS UPPER LEVEL CIRRUS THAT HAS BEEN
OVER THE AREA FOR AWHILE SHIFTS SLOWLY TO THE SE. LOWS WILL DROP
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S NORTH 65-70 ACROSS S CSTL SECTIONS.

THU-THU NIGHT...A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE
NORTHEAST U.S. COAST SLOWLY PULLS AWAY NORTHEASTWARD WHILE RATHER
FLAT ZONAL FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. BROAD
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE ARKLATECH
REGION. A FRESH NORTHEAST WIND FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL BE FELT
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS DRIER
CONDITIONS SOUTHWARD SO HAVE PULLED POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES FOR THIS PERIOD AS DEEPEST MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH TIGHT
GRADIENT REMAINS STYMIED OVER THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA.

HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND
60 DEGREES NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR TO THE LOW/MID 60S FURTHER
SOUTH OVER THE INTERIOR...EXCEPT MID/UPPER 60S COCOA BEACH SOUTH
THROUGH THE TREASURE COAST.

FRI-FRI NIGHT...AN UPPER IMPULSE WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. AND FLORIDA PENINSULA OVER THIS PERIOD. ENERGY WILL
ALSO TRAVERSE THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA FROM THE SOUTHWEST RIDING
NORTHEAST ALONG A STATIONARY BOUNDARY WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE THERE.
THERE WILL REMAIN A FINE LINE OF DEEPER LEVEL MOISTURE SOUTHWARD AND
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW STILL WITH EXACT PLACEMENT/STRENGTH OF
FEATURES TO GO ALONG WITH TIMING. WILL CONTINUE A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION ALONG THE TREASURE COAST AND SOUTHERN OKEECHOBEE
COUNTY WITH 20 PERCENT POPS FURTHER NORTHWARD TOWARDS
MELBOURNE...BUT JUST SOUTH OF KISSIMMEE.

SAT-TUE...THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED IMPULSE WILL CONTINUE ITS
SOUTHWARD DIVE SOUTH AND EAST AWAY FROM EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA ON SAT.
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND FLOW ALOFT FOLLOWS SAT-SUN UNTIL A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE PARKS ACROSS THE AREA MON-TUE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
SLOW TO BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH THE CENTER HAVING PULLED OFF OF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY TUE. A LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE COMPONENT
OF WIND IS FORECAST THROUGH THIS TIME. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF WANT TO
BRING A DISTURBANCE OUT OF THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN TO NEAR WEST CUBA
BY THE END OF THIS PERIOD WITH THE GFS MUCH STRONGER WITH THIS
FEATURE.

SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY LINGER AROUND THE TREASURE COAST ON
SAT WITH DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING ON SUN. WITH DEEPER ONSHORE FLOW
RETURNING EARLY NEXT WEEK WE MAY SEE INCREASING CHANCES FOR
DEVELOPING COASTAL SHOWERS MON-TUE TIMEFRAME. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
LOWER 80S WITH 60S FOR LOWS...EXCEPT COOLER LOCATIONS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR WHICH MAY REALIZE UPPER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOME SCT-BKN STRATUS AND PATCHY IFR FOG IS DEVELOPING FROM
KSFB-KMCO. SCT-BKN LOW CLOUDS WILL CONT TO DVLP ACROSS NRN INTERIOR
AREAS THRU 11Z. SFC FRONT PUSHING SOUTH AND DEVELOPING DRIER
NORTHERLY FLOW SHOULD ALLOW STRATUS/BR TO DISSIPATE FAIRLY SOON
AFTER SUNRISE. AS SFC FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF KMLB THIS AFTERNOON THERE
WILL BE A CHC FOR SHRA/TSRA FROM KFPR-KSUA. INCLUDED VCSH AT
KFPR/KSUA THIS AFTN FOR NOW. MAY NEED TO ADD TSRA TO FCST WITH LATER
UPDTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SFC FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE NRN WATERS THIS MORNING AND SRN
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15
KNOTS OFFSHORE WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 4-5 FT AND HIGHER IN THE GULF
STREAM. WILL RAISE SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES FOR LATE
AFTN AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE OFFSHORE GULF STREAM WATERS.

THU-THU NIGHT...NE WINDS 10-15 KTS...PERHAPS SLIGHTLY HIGHER AWAY
FROM THE COAST SOUTH OF VERO BEACH. SEAS 2-3 FT NEAR SHORE AND 3-4
FT GULF STREAM/OFFSHORE.

FRI-FRI NIGHT...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE SOUTHERN FL PENINSULA/FL STRAITS AND HIGH PRESSURE TRYING
TO NOSE IN FROM THE NORTH. STILL MAINLY NE WINDS APPROACHING 15 KTS
AWAY FROM THE COAST BUT FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 15-20 KTS SOUTH FROM
THE CAPE DURING THE DAY THRU FRI EVENING. CAUTIONARY STATEMENTS MAY
BE NECESSARY HERE. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD TO 4-5 FT SOUTH OF FT.
PIERCE DURING THE DAY AND PERHAPS 5-6 FT FRI NIGHT GULF STREAM/WELL
OFFSHORE FROM SEBASTIAN INLET SOUTHWARD.

SAT-SUN...THE PREVIOUS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN
PENINSULA WILL GRADUALLY PULL AWAY WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN THE
N/NE WINDS. SEAS WILL ALSO SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD FROM THE WEST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MIN RHS WILL DROP TO 35-40 PCT OVER THE NRN INTERIOR TODAY WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. NO HEADLINES NEEDED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  79  58  78  59 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  84  61  81  61 /   0   0   0  10
MLB  82  64  79  66 /  10  10  10  10
VRB  83  67  81  68 /  20  10  10  10
LEE  83  58  81  58 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  83  60  81  60 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  84  62  82  62 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  83  68  80  68 /  30  20  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...VOLKMER
LONG TERM....SEDLOCK








000
FXUS62 KMLB 220729
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
330 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY...CLOSED MID LAYER LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD OFF THE MID
ATLC TODAY WITH A TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE SFC LOW
OFFSHORE PUSHING SOUTHWARD THROUGH NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS
MORNING AND TOWARD THE SRN TREASURE COAST AND OKEECHOBEE COUNTY THIS
AFTERNOON. LOW LVL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONT AND SOME WANING LIFT
FROM A DEPARTING UPPER LVL JET SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO AGAIN SPARK
SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS FAR SRN PORTIONS OF E CENTRAL FL THIS
AFTERNOON WHERE PWATS WILL REMAIN FROM 1.7 TO 1.8 INCHES ACROSS FAR
SRN SECTIONS. WILL KEEP CENTRAL/NRN SECTIONS DRY WITH CONSIDERABLE
UPPER LEVEL CIRRUS INTO THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE THE CIRRUS BAND STARTS
TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO
15 MPH THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 ALONG THE VOLUSIA COUNTY
COAST TO THE MID 80S ACROSS THE SRN INTERIOR.

TONIGHT...MODELS INDICATE SFC BOUNDARY SHOULD SLIP SOUTH OF MARTIN
COUNTY THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT LINGERING MOISTURE ACROSS FAR SRN
SECTIONS INTO THE EVENING WILL SUPPORT 20-30 PCT CHANCE FOR SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SRN SECTIONS INTO THE EVENING HOURS...AND
SHOWER CHANCES ACROSS MARTIN COUNTY THROUGH THE NIGHT. CENTRAL AND
NRN SECTIONS SHOULD SEE CLEARING AS UPPER LEVEL CIRRUS THAT HAS BEEN
OVER THE AREA FOR AWHILE SHIFTS SLOWLY TO THE SE. LOWS WILL DROP
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S NORTH 65-70 ACROSS S CSTL SECTIONS.

THU-THU NIGHT...A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE
NORTHEAST U.S. COAST SLOWLY PULLS AWAY NORTHEASTWARD WHILE RATHER
FLAT ZONAL FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. BROAD
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE ARKLATECH
REGION. A FRESH NORTHEAST WIND FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL BE FELT
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS DRIER
CONDITIONS SOUTHWARD SO HAVE PULLED POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES FOR THIS PERIOD AS DEEPEST MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH TIGHT
GRADIENT REMAINS STYMIED OVER THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA.

HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND
60 DEGREES NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR TO THE LOW/MID 60S FURTHER
SOUTH OVER THE INTERIOR...EXCEPT MID/UPPER 60S COCOA BEACH SOUTH
THROUGH THE TREASURE COAST.

FRI-FRI NIGHT...AN UPPER IMPULSE WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. AND FLORIDA PENINSULA OVER THIS PERIOD. ENERGY WILL
ALSO TRAVERSE THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA FROM THE SOUTHWEST RIDING
NORTHEAST ALONG A STATIONARY BOUNDARY WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE THERE.
THERE WILL REMAIN A FINE LINE OF DEEPER LEVEL MOISTURE SOUTHWARD AND
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW STILL WITH EXACT PLACEMENT/STRENGTH OF
FEATURES TO GO ALONG WITH TIMING. WILL CONTINUE A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION ALONG THE TREASURE COAST AND SOUTHERN OKEECHOBEE
COUNTY WITH 20 PERCENT POPS FURTHER NORTHWARD TOWARDS
MELBOURNE...BUT JUST SOUTH OF KISSIMMEE.

SAT-TUE...THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED IMPULSE WILL CONTINUE ITS
SOUTHWARD DIVE SOUTH AND EAST AWAY FROM EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA ON SAT.
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND FLOW ALOFT FOLLOWS SAT-SUN UNTIL A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE PARKS ACROSS THE AREA MON-TUE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
SLOW TO BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH THE CENTER HAVING PULLED OFF OF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY TUE. A LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE COMPONENT
OF WIND IS FORECAST THROUGH THIS TIME. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF WANT TO
BRING A DISTURBANCE OUT OF THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN TO NEAR WEST CUBA
BY THE END OF THIS PERIOD WITH THE GFS MUCH STRONGER WITH THIS
FEATURE.

SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY LINGER AROUND THE TREASURE COAST ON
SAT WITH DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING ON SUN. WITH DEEPER ONSHORE FLOW
RETURNING EARLY NEXT WEEK WE MAY SEE INCREASING CHANCES FOR
DEVELOPING COASTAL SHOWERS MON-TUE TIMEFRAME. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
LOWER 80S WITH 60S FOR LOWS...EXCEPT COOLER LOCATIONS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR WHICH MAY REALIZE UPPER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOME SCT-BKN STRATUS AND PATCHY IFR FOG IS DEVELOPING FROM
KSFB-KMCO. SCT-BKN LOW CLOUDS WILL CONT TO DVLP ACROSS NRN INTERIOR
AREAS THRU 11Z. SFC FRONT PUSHING SOUTH AND DEVELOPING DRIER
NORTHERLY FLOW SHOULD ALLOW STRATUS/BR TO DISSIPATE FAIRLY SOON
AFTER SUNRISE. AS SFC FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF KMLB THIS AFTERNOON THERE
WILL BE A CHC FOR SHRA/TSRA FROM KFPR-KSUA. INCLUDED VCSH AT
KFPR/KSUA THIS AFTN FOR NOW. MAY NEED TO ADD TSRA TO FCST WITH LATER
UPDTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SFC FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE NRN WATERS THIS MORNING AND SRN
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15
KNOTS OFFSHORE WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 4-5 FT AND HIGHER IN THE GULF
STREAM. WILL RAISE SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES FOR LATE
AFTN AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE OFFSHORE GULF STREAM WATERS.

THU-THU NIGHT...NE WINDS 10-15 KTS...PERHAPS SLIGHTLY HIGHER AWAY
FROM THE COAST SOUTH OF VERO BEACH. SEAS 2-3 FT NEAR SHORE AND 3-4
FT GULF STREAM/OFFSHORE.

FRI-FRI NIGHT...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE SOUTHERN FL PENINSULA/FL STRAITS AND HIGH PRESSURE TRYING
TO NOSE IN FROM THE NORTH. STILL MAINLY NE WINDS APPROACHING 15 KTS
AWAY FROM THE COAST BUT FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 15-20 KTS SOUTH FROM
THE CAPE DURING THE DAY THRU FRI EVENING. CAUTIONARY STATEMENTS MAY
BE NECESSARY HERE. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD TO 4-5 FT SOUTH OF FT.
PIERCE DURING THE DAY AND PERHAPS 5-6 FT FRI NIGHT GULF STREAM/WELL
OFFSHORE FROM SEBASTIAN INLET SOUTHWARD.

SAT-SUN...THE PREVIOUS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN
PENINSULA WILL GRADUALLY PULL AWAY WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN THE
N/NE WINDS. SEAS WILL ALSO SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD FROM THE WEST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MIN RHS WILL DROP TO 35-40 PCT OVER THE NRN INTERIOR TODAY WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. NO HEADLINES NEEDED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  79  58  78  59 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  84  61  81  61 /   0   0   0  10
MLB  82  64  79  66 /  10  10  10  10
VRB  83  67  81  68 /  20  10  10  10
LEE  83  58  81  58 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  83  60  81  60 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  84  62  82  62 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  83  68  80  68 /  30  20  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...VOLKMER
LONG TERM....SEDLOCK









000
FXUS62 KMLB 220234 AAA
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1030 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT/WED...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS BECOME STATIONARY OVER
CENTRAL FL. A SECONDARY FRONT IS PUSHING QUICKLY SOUTH ACROSS GA
THIS EVENING AND WILL REACH CENTRAL FL LATE TONIGHT AND INTO SOUTH
FL WED EVENING. W/SW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM HIGH CLOUDS
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH CLEARING ACROSS THE NORTH WED AS DRIER
AIR MOVES IN. RAIN CHANCES LOOK LOW OVERNIGHT OVER LAND WITH LOSS OF
SFC HEATING AND DEEPER MOISTURE LIMITED TO SOUTHERN SECTIONS. A
NORTH WIND SHIFT WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT WED AS IT PRESSES
SOUTH. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS BETWEEN
OKEECHOBEE AND TREASURE COAST WED AFTN. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT IN THE
MID-UPPER 60S...WITH MAXES WED IN THE LOW-MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...
GENERALLY VFR THRU 18Z.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT/WED...SEAS OF 2-3FT OVERNIGHT IN LIGHT FLOW AHEAD OF COOL
FRONT. SEAS WILL BUILD BEHIND FROPA WED...WITH FRESHENING NRLY WINDS
UP TO 15KT...SEAS 3-4FT WELL OFFSHORE...UP TO 5FT IN THE GULF STREAM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  64  81  59  78 /   0   0  10   0
MCO  66  84  61  82 /  10   0  10   0
MLB  69  83  65  80 /  10  10  10  10
VRB  67  84  67  81 /  20  20  20  10
LEE  64  84  58  82 /   0   0  10   0
SFB  66  84  60  81 /   0   0  10   0
ORL  67  84  62  82 /   0   0  10   0
FPR  67  83  68  81 /  20  20  20  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

KELLY/WEITLICH









000
FXUS62 KMLB 211935
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
330 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT...INTENSE STORMS AIDED BY DIVERGENT JET-FORCED ASCENT
DEVELOPED FROM FORT DRUM AND VERO BEACH SOUTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SOME LOCATIONS IN THAT AREA PICKING UP 2-4". LATEST RADAR
TRENDS SHOW THAT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY HAS PUSHED SOUTH AND EAST
OF AREA...WITH SOME LINGERING RAIN AND A FEW EMBEDDED STORMS FROM
SOUTH OF KOBE-KFPR...MAINLY ACROSS MARTIN COUNTY. OTHERWISE...
TO THE NORTH...CI HAS OCNLY THINNED ENOUGH TO WHERE SOME CU HAS
FORMED...BUT OVERALL FIELD APPEARS TO BE SHALLOW/SPARSE.

TONIGHT/WED...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO
SAG SLOWLY SWD OVER THE NRN CWA OVERNIGHT...AND THEN ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND INTO THE SRN CWA BY WED AFTERNOON. WITH THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH OVERHEAD SHEARING OUT...CONTINUED W TO WSW UPPER FLOW WILL
STREAM HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD...BUT NOT MUCH ELSE AS DEEPER MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN POOLED DOWN ACROSS THE SRNMOST CWA OVER THE NEXT H24.
N-NNE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL OOZE SWD DOWN THE PENINSULA AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT IN THE M-U60S...WITH MAXES WED IN THE
L-M80S.

HAD TENTATIVELY PLANNED TO GO WITH A PRE-FIRST PERIOD FOR TONIGHT...
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS...FEEL AS THOUGH WE CAN GO
WITH THE LOWER NUMBERS (20-30) THROUGH LATE EVENING. WHILE SOME JET
ASCENT CONTINUES OVERHEAD LATE TONIGHT...FEELING IS THAT WITHOUT
DIURNAL FORCING WE`LL BE HARD-PRESSED TO GET ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE
REDEVELOPMENT WELL AFTER SUNSET. SIMILAR LOOKING POP NUMBERS FOR
WED...20-40...ACROSS THE SERN 4 COS.

WED NIGHT...NORTH NORTHEAST WINDS VEER TO THE NORTHEAST BEHIND THE
FRONT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS AND SHOWERS SEBASTIAN INLET SOUTH AS
THE FLOW VEERS TO THE NORTHEAST AND MORE STABLE MARINE AIR MASS
MOVES INTO THE COASTAL AREA. RANGE OF OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM THE UPPER
50S WEST OF INTERSTATE 4 TO AROUND 60/LOW 60S INTERIOR DOWN TO LAKE
OKEECHOBEE AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 95 AND THE MID 60S EAST OF
INTERSTATE 95 COCOA BREVARD COUNTY SOUTH.

THU-THU NIGHT...BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWEEPS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. AND FLORIDA. ASSOCIATED LONG SWATH OF MOISTURE AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL/CUBA/STRAIT OF FLORIDA INTO THE BAHAMA ISLANDS.
SERIES OF WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF
A JET MAX TO THE NORTH WILL KEEP SKIES CONSIDERABLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
WITH MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...THE SURFACE
TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE NORTH/CENTRAL
BAHAMA ISLANDS WITH HIGH PRESSURE PRESSING SOUTHWARD DOWN THE
PENINSULA. THIS RESULTS IN A PERSISTENT EAST TO NORTHEAST WIND
PATTERN WITH THE STRONGER WINDS STUART SAINT LUCIE INLET SOUTH. BEST
RAIN CHANCES VERO BEACH FORT PIERCE SOUTH WHERE THE BETTER DEEPER
MOISTURE RESIDES AND THE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES ARE STRONGER. HIGHS
IN THE LOW 80S DUE TO THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER. LOWS RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 50S/AROUND 60 NORTH OF INTERSTATE 4 TO THE MID 60S REST OF THE
INTERIOR EAST TO INTERSTATE 95. EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR
COCOA SOUTH BREVARD SOUTH LOOKS TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID/UPPER 60S
DEPENDING WHETHER MAINLAND/BEACHSIDE.

PREVIOUS EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

FRI-FRI NIGHT...00Z GFS INDICATES SFC LOW/TROPICAL DISTURBANCE WILL
EJECT ENE ACROSS CUBA OR POSSIBLY THE FL STRAITS AND MOVE WELL SOUTH
OF THE AREA. SOME ENHANCED MOISTURE MAY LIFT TOWARD THE TREASURE
COAST AS THE SFC LOW EJECTS AND WITH NE LOW LVL FLOW EXPECT SOME
ENHANCEMENT TO A FEW ATLC SHOWER BANDS THAT MAY MOVE ONSHORE. WILL
ADVERTISE 20-30 PCT RAIN CHANCES FOR SRN SECTIONS AS THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA MOVES ENE.

SAT-TUE...A DIVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OFFSHORE FROM CAROLINAS
SHOULD PICK UP THE SYSTEM OR WEAK SFC LOW NEAR THE BAHAMAS AND MOVE
IT FURTHER OUT TO SEA. SFC HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE SE STATES MOVING
TWD THE MID ATLC COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL VEER THE LOW LVL FLOW
FROM NE TO EAST WITH SLOWING INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS. EXPECT
ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM THE ATLC TO PUSH ONSHORE OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER
TO MID 80S WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY VFR...WITH ISOLD TO SCT MVFR-IFR VSBYS IN
SHRA/+SHRA CONTINUING INVOF VRB-SUA THROUGH ABOUT 04Z OR SO.

&&

.MARINE...TONIGHT/WED...SEAS OF 2-3FT OVERNIGHT IN LIGHT FLOW AHEAD
OF COOL FRONT. SEAS WILL BUILD BEHIND FROPA WED...WITH FRESHENING
NRLY WINDS UP TO 15KT...SEAS 3-4FT WELL OFFSHORE...UP TO 5FT IN THE
GULF STREAM.

WED NIGHT-THU NIGHT....N TO NE WINDS TO AROUND 15 KNOTS WILL BUILD
SEAS TO 4-5 FT...OCCASIONALLY HIGHER IN THE GULF STREAM. WINDS
INCREASE TO EAST AT AROUND 15 KNOTS LATE OVERNIGHT THU AS PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE PRESSING DOWN THE PENINSULA AND A
SOUTHWEST NORTHEAST ORIENTED TROUGHING PATTERN CENTERED OVER THE
FLORIDA STRAITS.

FRI-SUN (PREV) ON FRIDAY NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED NEAR 15 KNOTS ACROSS
THE SRN WATERS...WITH HIGHER SEAS CONTINUING TO 4-6 FT. NE WINDS
WILL CONTINUE CLOSE TO SCEC LEVELS FOR THE SRN WATER SATURDAY AND
ACROSS ALL OF THE WATERS SUNDAY WITH SEAS TO 5 TO 6 FT OFFSHORE AS
SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE SE STATES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  64  81  59  78 /   0   0  10   0
MCO  66  84  61  82 /  10   0  10   0
MLB  69  83  65  80 /  10  10  10  10
VRB  67  84  67  81 /  20  20  20  10
LEE  64  84  58  82 /   0   0  10   0
SFB  66  84  60  81 /   0   0  10   0
ORL  67  84  62  82 /   0   0  10   0
FPR  67  83  68  81 /  20  20  20  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...CRISTALDI
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX....WIMMER
RADAR/METWATCH...WIMMER/KELLY







000
FXUS62 KMLB 211429
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1025 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...

CURRENT...BROAD/SLOPPY LOW PRESSURE GYRE OVER THE BOC CONTINUES TO
SPIN WHILE STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL WINDS CARRY HIGHER LEVEL MOISTURE
(ABOVE 500MB ACCORDING TO TBW/XMR RAOBS) ENEWD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
2/3 OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. TO THE NORTH...A WEAK REINFORCING
SURFACE COOL FRONT LIES JUST NORTH OF LAKE/VOLUSIA COUNTIES. SURFACE
WINDS ARE LIGHT TO CALM AREAWIDE HOWEVER 12Z RAOB/PROFILER DATA
SHOWS LIGHT TO MODERATE SW-WSW WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK. 14Z TEMPS
GENERALLY IN THE 73-75F RANGE. LOCAL RADARS SHOW SHOWERS AND A FEW
STORMS HAVE STARTED TO DEVELOP OVER OKEECHOBEE/MARTIN COUNTIES.

LOOKING ALOFT...AXIS OF FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG
THE SERN SEABOARD AND ACROSS NRN FL...BECOMING MORE ZONALLY ORIENTED
OVER THE NERN GOMEX.

REST OF TODAY...AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SAGGING INTO THE CENTRAL CWA WHILST SLOWING TODAY. MID/UPPER LEVEL
WIND/RH PROGS SUGGEST SUBSTANTIAL HIGH CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE
STREAM OVER FL...WITH SOME EROSION ALONG THE NRN FLANK BY AFTERNOON.
EXPECT A SHARP CUTOFF BETWEEN AREAS OF HIGH AND MINIMAL TO NIL RAIN
CHANCES OVER THE SRN HALF TO THIRD CWA. MORNING UPDATE EMPHASIZES
THIS A LITTLE STRONGER...BUMPING POPS FOR OKEECHOBEE/MARTIN/ST LUCIE
COUNTIES TO LIKELY WHILE LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA UNCHANGED.
PRECIP MAY HAVE A HARD TIME MAKING IT AS FAR NORTH AS SOUTHERN
OSCEOLA/BREVARD COS...BUT WILL LEAVE SMALL CHC THERE FOR NOW.

ONLY OTHER CHANGE OF NOTE WAS TO SHAVE A BIT OFF OF MAXES OWING TO
THE HIGH CLOUDS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR ABOVE BKN-OVC200 FOR MOST AREAS. PRECIP CONFINED TO
MLB-VRB-FPR-SUA CORRIDOR WITH MVFR CIGS/IFR VSBYS IN SHRA/TS...AND
CHANCES PROGRESSIVELY HIGHER AT EACH SITE AS YOU HEAD SOUTH.

&&

.MARINE...GENERALLY W-SW WINDS BELOW 10KT WITH SEAS 1.5-2.5FT NEAR
SHORE AND UP TO 3FT WELL OFFSHORE.

&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...CRISTALDI
LONG TERM....WIMMER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

RAIN MOVES OUT OF MOST LOCATIONS QUICKLY THIS EVENING FROM NW TO SE
WITH FRONT THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER OVER MARTIN COUNTY AND
ADJACENT ATLANTIC.

WED...A DEEP CLOSED LOW AT 500 MBS WILL MOVE EASTWARD FROM THE
DELMARVA AS A TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE TREASURE COAST IN THE
MORNING PUSHES SOUTH JUST SOUTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE BY LATE
AFTERNOON. LOW LVL NORTHERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT A VERY DRY AIRMASS
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NRN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE ONLY
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS NEAR THE FRONT MAINLY ACROSS SRN OKEECHOBEE AND
ST LUCIE AND MARTIN COUNTIES AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE
DAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 80S NORTH AND MID 80S SRN
INTERIOR.

WED NIGHT...NNE LOW LVL FLOW WILL VEER TO NE BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS MAINLY ALONG THE MARTIN COUNTY COAST AS
THE FRONT STALLS SOUTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
MID-UPPER 50S FOR LAKE AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES TO 65-70 ALONG THE
TREASURE COAST.

THU...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL ELONGATE INTO S GA WITH NE TO ENE LOW
LVL FLOW. THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN DRY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ONSHORE MOVING SHOWERS ACROSS MARTIN COUNTY CLOSE
TO THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS S FL. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
70S ALONG THE VOLUSIA COAST TO THE LOWER TO MID 80S FOR THE
INTERIOR.

FRI-FRI NIGHT...00Z GFS INDICATES SFC LOW/TROPICAL DISTURBANCE WILL
EJECT ENE ACROSS CUBA OR POSSIBLY THE FL STRAITS AND MOVE WELL SOUTH
OF THE AREA. SOME ENHANCED MOISTURE MAY LIFT TOWARD THE TREASURE
COAST AS THE SFC LOW EJECTS AND WITH NE LOW LVL FLOW EXPECT SOME
ENHANCEMENT TO A FEW ATLC SHOWER BANDS THAT MAY MOVE ONSHORE. WILL
ADVERTISE 20-30 PCT RAIN CHANCES FOR SRN SECTIONS AS THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA MOVES ENE.

SAT-TUE...A DIVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OFFSHORE FROM CAROLINAS
SHOULD PICK UP THE SYSTEM OR WEAK SFC LOW NEAR THE BAHAMAS AND MOVE
IT FURTHER OUT TO SEA. SFC HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE SE STATES MOVING
TWD THE MID ATLC COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL VEER THE LOW LVL FLOW
FROM NE TO EAST WITH SLOWING INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS. EXPECT
ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM THE ATLC TO PUSH ONSHORE OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER
TO MID 80S WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR UNDER BKN-OVC MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. LCL MIFG/BR POSSIBLE
THROUGH 12Z. ISOLD-WDLY SCT SHRA AND A FEW TSRA LIFTING NORTH FROM S
FLORIDA AFTER 11Z AFFECTING AREAS SOUTH OF KMLB TO LAKE KISSIMMEE
TODAY WITH NORTHERN AREAS REMAINING DRY. A FEW SHRA LINGERING AFTER
00Z VCNTY KOBE-KSUA OTHERWISE MOST ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN OVER LCL
ATLANTIC.



&&

.MARINE...
TODAY-TONIGHT...LIGHT GRADIENT IN BETWEEN FRONTS WILL GENERALLY KEEP
WINDS AROUND 5KTS MOST OF THE DAY...OCCASIONALLY 5-10KTS. PREVAILING
DIRECTION S-SW WITH A ONSHORE COMPONENT RIGHT AT THE COAST IN THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS TURN W-NW LATE TONIGHT AS SECONDARY FRONT MOVES IN
WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO A SOLID 10KTS. SEAS 2-3FT. SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW STORMS MAY MOVE OFF THE COAST SOUTH OF SEBASTIAN
INLET THIS AFTERNOON.

WED-THU....N TO NE WINDS TO AROUND 15 KNOTS WILL BUILD SEAS TO 4-6
FT ACROSS THE GULF STREAM WATERS INTO MID WEEK. ON FRIDAY NE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED NEAR 15 KNOTS ACROSS THE SRN WATERS...WITH HIGHER SEAS
CONTINUING TO 4-6 FT. NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE CLOSE TO SCEC LEVELS
FOR THE SRN WATER SATURDAY AND ACROSS ALL OF THE WATERS SUNDAY WITH
SEAS TO 5 TO 6 FT OFFSHORE AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE
SE STATES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  85  63  81  58 /  10   0   0   0
MCO  86  66  84  60 /  10   0   0   0
MLB  84  67  84  65 /  20  10  10   0
VRB  84  67  85  67 /  30  20  10  10
LEE  86  65  84  58 /  10   0   0   0
SFB  86  66  84  60 /  10   0   0   0
ORL  86  67  85  62 /  10   0   0   0
FPR  84  66  84  67 /  40  20  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KMLB 211429
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1025 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...

CURRENT...BROAD/SLOPPY LOW PRESSURE GYRE OVER THE BOC CONTINUES TO
SPIN WHILE STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL WINDS CARRY HIGHER LEVEL MOISTURE
(ABOVE 500MB ACCORDING TO TBW/XMR RAOBS) ENEWD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
2/3 OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. TO THE NORTH...A WEAK REINFORCING
SURFACE COOL FRONT LIES JUST NORTH OF LAKE/VOLUSIA COUNTIES. SURFACE
WINDS ARE LIGHT TO CALM AREAWIDE HOWEVER 12Z RAOB/PROFILER DATA
SHOWS LIGHT TO MODERATE SW-WSW WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK. 14Z TEMPS
GENERALLY IN THE 73-75F RANGE. LOCAL RADARS SHOW SHOWERS AND A FEW
STORMS HAVE STARTED TO DEVELOP OVER OKEECHOBEE/MARTIN COUNTIES.

LOOKING ALOFT...AXIS OF FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG
THE SERN SEABOARD AND ACROSS NRN FL...BECOMING MORE ZONALLY ORIENTED
OVER THE NERN GOMEX.

REST OF TODAY...AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SAGGING INTO THE CENTRAL CWA WHILST SLOWING TODAY. MID/UPPER LEVEL
WIND/RH PROGS SUGGEST SUBSTANTIAL HIGH CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE
STREAM OVER FL...WITH SOME EROSION ALONG THE NRN FLANK BY AFTERNOON.
EXPECT A SHARP CUTOFF BETWEEN AREAS OF HIGH AND MINIMAL TO NIL RAIN
CHANCES OVER THE SRN HALF TO THIRD CWA. MORNING UPDATE EMPHASIZES
THIS A LITTLE STRONGER...BUMPING POPS FOR OKEECHOBEE/MARTIN/ST LUCIE
COUNTIES TO LIKELY WHILE LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA UNCHANGED.
PRECIP MAY HAVE A HARD TIME MAKING IT AS FAR NORTH AS SOUTHERN
OSCEOLA/BREVARD COS...BUT WILL LEAVE SMALL CHC THERE FOR NOW.

ONLY OTHER CHANGE OF NOTE WAS TO SHAVE A BIT OFF OF MAXES OWING TO
THE HIGH CLOUDS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR ABOVE BKN-OVC200 FOR MOST AREAS. PRECIP CONFINED TO
MLB-VRB-FPR-SUA CORRIDOR WITH MVFR CIGS/IFR VSBYS IN SHRA/TS...AND
CHANCES PROGRESSIVELY HIGHER AT EACH SITE AS YOU HEAD SOUTH.

&&

.MARINE...GENERALLY W-SW WINDS BELOW 10KT WITH SEAS 1.5-2.5FT NEAR
SHORE AND UP TO 3FT WELL OFFSHORE.

&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...CRISTALDI
LONG TERM....WIMMER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

RAIN MOVES OUT OF MOST LOCATIONS QUICKLY THIS EVENING FROM NW TO SE
WITH FRONT THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER OVER MARTIN COUNTY AND
ADJACENT ATLANTIC.

WED...A DEEP CLOSED LOW AT 500 MBS WILL MOVE EASTWARD FROM THE
DELMARVA AS A TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE TREASURE COAST IN THE
MORNING PUSHES SOUTH JUST SOUTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE BY LATE
AFTERNOON. LOW LVL NORTHERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT A VERY DRY AIRMASS
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NRN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE ONLY
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS NEAR THE FRONT MAINLY ACROSS SRN OKEECHOBEE AND
ST LUCIE AND MARTIN COUNTIES AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE
DAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 80S NORTH AND MID 80S SRN
INTERIOR.

WED NIGHT...NNE LOW LVL FLOW WILL VEER TO NE BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS MAINLY ALONG THE MARTIN COUNTY COAST AS
THE FRONT STALLS SOUTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
MID-UPPER 50S FOR LAKE AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES TO 65-70 ALONG THE
TREASURE COAST.

THU...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL ELONGATE INTO S GA WITH NE TO ENE LOW
LVL FLOW. THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN DRY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ONSHORE MOVING SHOWERS ACROSS MARTIN COUNTY CLOSE
TO THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS S FL. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
70S ALONG THE VOLUSIA COAST TO THE LOWER TO MID 80S FOR THE
INTERIOR.

FRI-FRI NIGHT...00Z GFS INDICATES SFC LOW/TROPICAL DISTURBANCE WILL
EJECT ENE ACROSS CUBA OR POSSIBLY THE FL STRAITS AND MOVE WELL SOUTH
OF THE AREA. SOME ENHANCED MOISTURE MAY LIFT TOWARD THE TREASURE
COAST AS THE SFC LOW EJECTS AND WITH NE LOW LVL FLOW EXPECT SOME
ENHANCEMENT TO A FEW ATLC SHOWER BANDS THAT MAY MOVE ONSHORE. WILL
ADVERTISE 20-30 PCT RAIN CHANCES FOR SRN SECTIONS AS THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA MOVES ENE.

SAT-TUE...A DIVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OFFSHORE FROM CAROLINAS
SHOULD PICK UP THE SYSTEM OR WEAK SFC LOW NEAR THE BAHAMAS AND MOVE
IT FURTHER OUT TO SEA. SFC HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE SE STATES MOVING
TWD THE MID ATLC COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL VEER THE LOW LVL FLOW
FROM NE TO EAST WITH SLOWING INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS. EXPECT
ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM THE ATLC TO PUSH ONSHORE OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER
TO MID 80S WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR UNDER BKN-OVC MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. LCL MIFG/BR POSSIBLE
THROUGH 12Z. ISOLD-WDLY SCT SHRA AND A FEW TSRA LIFTING NORTH FROM S
FLORIDA AFTER 11Z AFFECTING AREAS SOUTH OF KMLB TO LAKE KISSIMMEE
TODAY WITH NORTHERN AREAS REMAINING DRY. A FEW SHRA LINGERING AFTER
00Z VCNTY KOBE-KSUA OTHERWISE MOST ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN OVER LCL
ATLANTIC.



&&

.MARINE...
TODAY-TONIGHT...LIGHT GRADIENT IN BETWEEN FRONTS WILL GENERALLY KEEP
WINDS AROUND 5KTS MOST OF THE DAY...OCCASIONALLY 5-10KTS. PREVAILING
DIRECTION S-SW WITH A ONSHORE COMPONENT RIGHT AT THE COAST IN THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS TURN W-NW LATE TONIGHT AS SECONDARY FRONT MOVES IN
WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO A SOLID 10KTS. SEAS 2-3FT. SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW STORMS MAY MOVE OFF THE COAST SOUTH OF SEBASTIAN
INLET THIS AFTERNOON.

WED-THU....N TO NE WINDS TO AROUND 15 KNOTS WILL BUILD SEAS TO 4-6
FT ACROSS THE GULF STREAM WATERS INTO MID WEEK. ON FRIDAY NE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED NEAR 15 KNOTS ACROSS THE SRN WATERS...WITH HIGHER SEAS
CONTINUING TO 4-6 FT. NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE CLOSE TO SCEC LEVELS
FOR THE SRN WATER SATURDAY AND ACROSS ALL OF THE WATERS SUNDAY WITH
SEAS TO 5 TO 6 FT OFFSHORE AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE
SE STATES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  85  63  81  58 /  10   0   0   0
MCO  86  66  84  60 /  10   0   0   0
MLB  84  67  84  65 /  20  10  10   0
VRB  84  67  85  67 /  30  20  10  10
LEE  86  65  84  58 /  10   0   0   0
SFB  86  66  84  60 /  10   0   0   0
ORL  86  67  85  62 /  10   0   0   0
FPR  84  66  84  67 /  40  20  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KMLB 210741
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
340 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY-TONIGHT...YESTERDAYS FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS MORE OR LESS WASHED
OUT ACROSS THE STATE THIS MORNING WITH THE LINGERING LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE GENERATING A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE LOCAL ATLANTIC
SUPPORTED BY A 90KT JET TRAVERSING THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE.
SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN BECOMES VERY ILL-DEFINED TODAY AS MID
ATLANTIC SURFACE LOW PUSHES OFF THE COAST AND BRING ANOTHER WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE CENTRAL PENINSULA LATER TODAY.

SOUTH-SOUTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF EAST COAST TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO TAP INTO THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DISTURBANCE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND BRING IT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE PENINSULA. HOWEVER THE EXTENSIVE MID-UPPER
LEVEL CLOUD DECK ALREADY STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION WILL LIMIT
SURFACE HEATING AND RAIN/STORM CHANCES.

THE ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN COMBINATION WITH SOME JET
SUPPORT AND SECONDARY WEAK FRONT PROVIDING SOME LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE...RAIN CHANCES WILL BE 30-40% ACROSS THE TREASURE COAST
AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE WITH AROUND 20% SOUTH OF A MELBOURNE TO LAKE
KISSIMMEE LINE. MESOSCALE MODELS ARE SHOWING THE ONGOING ACTIVITY
ACROSS FAR SOUTH FLORIDA LIFTING NORTH AND BRUSHING MARTIN
COUNTY/LAKE OKEECHOBEE BEFORE SUNRISE...BUT GIVEN THE CURRENT TRENDS
THIS SEEMS A LITTLE EARLY AND WILL HOLD OFF ACTIVITY UNTIL MID
MORNING. FURTHER NORTH...TROPICAL MOISTURE NEVER GETS FAR ENOUGH
NORTH TO MODIFY THE DRIER AIRMASS BEFORE FLOW SHIFTS BEHIND THE
SURFACE AND UPPER TROUGH TO BRING IN MORE DRY AIR.

RAIN MOVES OUT OF MOST LOCATIONS QUICKLY THIS EVENING FROM NW TO SE
WITH FRONT THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER OVER MARTIN COUNTY AND
ADJACENT ATLANTIC.

WED...A DEEP CLOSED LOW AT 500 MBS WILL MOVE EASTWARD FROM THE
DELMARVA AS A TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE TREASURE COAST IN THE
MORNING PUSHES SOUTH JUST SOUTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE BY LATE
AFTERNOON. LOW LVL NORTHERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT A VERY DRY AIRMASS
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NRN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE ONLY
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS NEAR THE FRONT MAINLY ACROSS SRN OKEECHOBEE AND
ST LUCIE AND MARTIN COUNTIES AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE
DAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 80S NORTH AND MID 80S SRN
INTERIOR.

WED NIGHT...NNE LOW LVL FLOW WILL VEER TO NE BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS MAINLY ALONG THE MARTIN COUNTY COAST AS
THE FRONT STALLS SOUTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
MID-UPPER 50S FOR LAKE AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES TO 65-70 ALONG THE
TREASURE COAST.

THU...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL ELONGATE INTO S GA WITH NE TO ENE LOW
LVL FLOW. THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN DRY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ONSHORE MOVING SHOWERS ACROSS MARTIN COUNTY CLOSE
TO THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS S FL. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
70S ALONG THE VOLUSIA COAST TO THE LOWER TO MID 80S FOR THE
INTERIOR.

FRI-FRI NIGHT...00Z GFS INDICATES SFC LOW/TROPICAL DISTURBANCE WILL
EJECT ENE ACROSS CUBA OR POSSIBLY THE FL STRAITS AND MOVE WELL SOUTH
OF THE AREA. SOME ENHANCED MOISTURE MAY LIFT TOWARD THE TREASURE
COAST AS THE SFC LOW EJECTS AND WITH NE LOW LVL FLOW EXPECT SOME
ENHANCEMENT TO A FEW ATLC SHOWER BANDS THAT MAY MOVE ONSHORE. WILL
ADVERTISE 20-30 PCT RAIN CHANCES FOR SRN SECTIONS AS THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA MOVES ENE.

SAT-TUE...A DIVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OFFSHORE FROM CAROLINAS
SHOULD PICK UP THE SYSTEM OR WEAK SFC LOW NEAR THE BAHAMAS AND MOVE
IT FURTHER OUT TO SEA. SFC HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE SE STATES MOVING
TWD THE MID ATLC COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL VEER THE LOW LVL FLOW
FROM NE TO EAST WITH SLOWING INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS. EXPECT
ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM THE ATLC TO PUSH ONSHORE OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER
TO MID 80S WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR UNDER BKN-OVC MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. LCL MIFG/BR POSSIBLE
THROUGH 12Z. ISOLD-WDLY SCT SHRA AND A FEW TSRA LIFTING NORTH FROM S
FLORIDA AFTER 11Z AFFECTING AREAS SOUTH OF KMLB TO LAKE KISSIMMEE
TODAY WITH NORTHERN AREAS REMAINING DRY. A FEW SHRA LINGERING AFTER
00Z VCNTY KOBE-KSUA OTHERWISE MOST ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN OVER LCL
ATLANTIC.



&&

.MARINE...

TODAY-TONIGHT...LIGHT GRADIENT IN BETWEEN FRONTS WILL GENERALLY KEEP
WINDS AROUND 5KTS MOST OF THE DAY...OCCASIONALLY 5-10KTS. PREVAILING
DIRECTION S-SW WITH A ONSHORE COMPONENT RIGHT AT THE COAST IN THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS TURN W-NW LATE TONIGHT AS SECONDARY FRONT MOVES IN
WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO A SOLID 10KTS. SEAS 2-3FT. SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW STORMS MAY MOVE OFF THE COAST SOUTH OF SEBASTIAN
INLET THIS AFTERNOON.

WED-THU....N TO NE WINDS TO AROUND 15 KNOTS WILL BUILD SEAS TO 4-6
FT ACROSS THE GULF STREAM WATERS INTO MID WEEK. ON FRIDAY NE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED NEAR 15 KNOTS ACROSS THE SRN WATERS...WITH HIGHER SEAS
CONTINUING TO 4-6 FT. NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE CLOSE TO SCEC LEVELS
FOR THE SRN WATER SATURDAY AND ACROSS ALL OF THE WATERS SUNDAY WITH
SEAS TO 5 TO 6 FT OFFSHORE AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE
SE STATES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  85  63  81  58 /  10   0   0   0
MCO  86  66  84  60 /  10   0   0   0
MLB  84  67  84  65 /  20  10  10   0
VRB  84  67  85  67 /  30  20  10  10
LEE  86  65  84  58 /  10   0   0   0
SFB  86  66  84  60 /  10   0   0   0
ORL  86  67  85  62 /  10   0   0   0
FPR  84  66  84  67 /  40  20  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...MOSES
LONG TERM....VOLKMER








000
FXUS62 KMLB 210741
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
340 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY-TONIGHT...YESTERDAYS FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS MORE OR LESS WASHED
OUT ACROSS THE STATE THIS MORNING WITH THE LINGERING LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE GENERATING A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE LOCAL ATLANTIC
SUPPORTED BY A 90KT JET TRAVERSING THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE.
SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN BECOMES VERY ILL-DEFINED TODAY AS MID
ATLANTIC SURFACE LOW PUSHES OFF THE COAST AND BRING ANOTHER WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE CENTRAL PENINSULA LATER TODAY.

SOUTH-SOUTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF EAST COAST TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO TAP INTO THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DISTURBANCE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND BRING IT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE PENINSULA. HOWEVER THE EXTENSIVE MID-UPPER
LEVEL CLOUD DECK ALREADY STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION WILL LIMIT
SURFACE HEATING AND RAIN/STORM CHANCES.

THE ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN COMBINATION WITH SOME JET
SUPPORT AND SECONDARY WEAK FRONT PROVIDING SOME LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE...RAIN CHANCES WILL BE 30-40% ACROSS THE TREASURE COAST
AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE WITH AROUND 20% SOUTH OF A MELBOURNE TO LAKE
KISSIMMEE LINE. MESOSCALE MODELS ARE SHOWING THE ONGOING ACTIVITY
ACROSS FAR SOUTH FLORIDA LIFTING NORTH AND BRUSHING MARTIN
COUNTY/LAKE OKEECHOBEE BEFORE SUNRISE...BUT GIVEN THE CURRENT TRENDS
THIS SEEMS A LITTLE EARLY AND WILL HOLD OFF ACTIVITY UNTIL MID
MORNING. FURTHER NORTH...TROPICAL MOISTURE NEVER GETS FAR ENOUGH
NORTH TO MODIFY THE DRIER AIRMASS BEFORE FLOW SHIFTS BEHIND THE
SURFACE AND UPPER TROUGH TO BRING IN MORE DRY AIR.

RAIN MOVES OUT OF MOST LOCATIONS QUICKLY THIS EVENING FROM NW TO SE
WITH FRONT THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER OVER MARTIN COUNTY AND
ADJACENT ATLANTIC.

WED...A DEEP CLOSED LOW AT 500 MBS WILL MOVE EASTWARD FROM THE
DELMARVA AS A TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE TREASURE COAST IN THE
MORNING PUSHES SOUTH JUST SOUTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE BY LATE
AFTERNOON. LOW LVL NORTHERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT A VERY DRY AIRMASS
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NRN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE ONLY
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS NEAR THE FRONT MAINLY ACROSS SRN OKEECHOBEE AND
ST LUCIE AND MARTIN COUNTIES AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE
DAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 80S NORTH AND MID 80S SRN
INTERIOR.

WED NIGHT...NNE LOW LVL FLOW WILL VEER TO NE BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS MAINLY ALONG THE MARTIN COUNTY COAST AS
THE FRONT STALLS SOUTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
MID-UPPER 50S FOR LAKE AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES TO 65-70 ALONG THE
TREASURE COAST.

THU...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL ELONGATE INTO S GA WITH NE TO ENE LOW
LVL FLOW. THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN DRY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ONSHORE MOVING SHOWERS ACROSS MARTIN COUNTY CLOSE
TO THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS S FL. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
70S ALONG THE VOLUSIA COAST TO THE LOWER TO MID 80S FOR THE
INTERIOR.

FRI-FRI NIGHT...00Z GFS INDICATES SFC LOW/TROPICAL DISTURBANCE WILL
EJECT ENE ACROSS CUBA OR POSSIBLY THE FL STRAITS AND MOVE WELL SOUTH
OF THE AREA. SOME ENHANCED MOISTURE MAY LIFT TOWARD THE TREASURE
COAST AS THE SFC LOW EJECTS AND WITH NE LOW LVL FLOW EXPECT SOME
ENHANCEMENT TO A FEW ATLC SHOWER BANDS THAT MAY MOVE ONSHORE. WILL
ADVERTISE 20-30 PCT RAIN CHANCES FOR SRN SECTIONS AS THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA MOVES ENE.

SAT-TUE...A DIVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OFFSHORE FROM CAROLINAS
SHOULD PICK UP THE SYSTEM OR WEAK SFC LOW NEAR THE BAHAMAS AND MOVE
IT FURTHER OUT TO SEA. SFC HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE SE STATES MOVING
TWD THE MID ATLC COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL VEER THE LOW LVL FLOW
FROM NE TO EAST WITH SLOWING INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS. EXPECT
ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM THE ATLC TO PUSH ONSHORE OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER
TO MID 80S WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR UNDER BKN-OVC MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. LCL MIFG/BR POSSIBLE
THROUGH 12Z. ISOLD-WDLY SCT SHRA AND A FEW TSRA LIFTING NORTH FROM S
FLORIDA AFTER 11Z AFFECTING AREAS SOUTH OF KMLB TO LAKE KISSIMMEE
TODAY WITH NORTHERN AREAS REMAINING DRY. A FEW SHRA LINGERING AFTER
00Z VCNTY KOBE-KSUA OTHERWISE MOST ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN OVER LCL
ATLANTIC.



&&

.MARINE...

TODAY-TONIGHT...LIGHT GRADIENT IN BETWEEN FRONTS WILL GENERALLY KEEP
WINDS AROUND 5KTS MOST OF THE DAY...OCCASIONALLY 5-10KTS. PREVAILING
DIRECTION S-SW WITH A ONSHORE COMPONENT RIGHT AT THE COAST IN THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS TURN W-NW LATE TONIGHT AS SECONDARY FRONT MOVES IN
WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO A SOLID 10KTS. SEAS 2-3FT. SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW STORMS MAY MOVE OFF THE COAST SOUTH OF SEBASTIAN
INLET THIS AFTERNOON.

WED-THU....N TO NE WINDS TO AROUND 15 KNOTS WILL BUILD SEAS TO 4-6
FT ACROSS THE GULF STREAM WATERS INTO MID WEEK. ON FRIDAY NE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED NEAR 15 KNOTS ACROSS THE SRN WATERS...WITH HIGHER SEAS
CONTINUING TO 4-6 FT. NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE CLOSE TO SCEC LEVELS
FOR THE SRN WATER SATURDAY AND ACROSS ALL OF THE WATERS SUNDAY WITH
SEAS TO 5 TO 6 FT OFFSHORE AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE
SE STATES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  85  63  81  58 /  10   0   0   0
MCO  86  66  84  60 /  10   0   0   0
MLB  84  67  84  65 /  20  10  10   0
VRB  84  67  85  67 /  30  20  10  10
LEE  86  65  84  58 /  10   0   0   0
SFB  86  66  84  60 /  10   0   0   0
ORL  86  67  85  62 /  10   0   0   0
FPR  84  66  84  67 /  40  20  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...MOSES
LONG TERM....VOLKMER









000
FXUS62 KMLB 210249 AAA
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1045 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDS WILL STREAM EAST ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
THIS SHOULD LIMIT SIGNIFICANT FOG FORMATION. SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER
SOUTH FL WILL DRIFT NORTHWARD IN DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW. HAVE
ADDED A SMALL SHOWER CHANCE FOR MARTIN COUNTY TOWARD MORNING.

ON TUE...WEAK SW-WRLY SFC WINDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEAK COOL FRONT.
INFLUX OF HIGHER PWAT AIR INTO THE SRN COUNTIES COULD TOUCH OF A FEW
SHOWERS OR STORMS THERE...HOWEVER MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS AND
MOISTURE WILL ALSO BEGIN TO STREAM ENE FROM DISTURBANCE IN THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE ACROSS THE SRN THIRD OF FL...WHICH WILL ACT TO LIMIT SFC
HEATING SOME. PREMISE OF THE FCST REMAINS UNCHANGED...WITH A SLIGHT
CHC FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION NEAR/SOUTH OF MLB-LAKE KISSIMMEE. MAY
NEED TO INCREASE POPS SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH (OKEECHOBEE TO
THE TREASURE COAST).

OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S WITH MAXES GENERALLY IN THE
M80S..AND MAYBE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER ACROSS THE SOUTH OWING TO
THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER.

&&

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR. PATCHY MIFG/BR PSBL ONCE AGAIN 08Z-12Z. ISOLD SHRA MAY
LIFT NORTHWARD FROM SOUTH FLORIDA AND AFFECT SUA TOWARDS MORNING. TS
PSBL KMLB-KSUA TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SE-S WINDS BLO 10KT THIS EVENING WILL VEER TO SWRLY OVERNIGHT/EARLY
TUE...AND SW-W LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COOL
FRONT. SEAS DROPPING BACK TO 2-3FT AS REMNANT SWELL CONTINUES TO
DECAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  67  85  63  81 /  10  10  10  10
MCO  67  86  65  84 /   0  10  10  10
MLB  69  84  67  83 /  10  20  20  20
VRB  68  84  67  84 /  10  20  30  30
LEE  67  86  64  84 /   0  10  10  10
SFB  67  86  65  84 /   0  10  10  10
ORL  69  86  67  84 /   0  10  10  10
FPR  66  84  66  83 /  10  20  40  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

KELLY/WEITLICH







000
FXUS62 KMLB 210249 AAA
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1045 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDS WILL STREAM EAST ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
THIS SHOULD LIMIT SIGNIFICANT FOG FORMATION. SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER
SOUTH FL WILL DRIFT NORTHWARD IN DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW. HAVE
ADDED A SMALL SHOWER CHANCE FOR MARTIN COUNTY TOWARD MORNING.

ON TUE...WEAK SW-WRLY SFC WINDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEAK COOL FRONT.
INFLUX OF HIGHER PWAT AIR INTO THE SRN COUNTIES COULD TOUCH OF A FEW
SHOWERS OR STORMS THERE...HOWEVER MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS AND
MOISTURE WILL ALSO BEGIN TO STREAM ENE FROM DISTURBANCE IN THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE ACROSS THE SRN THIRD OF FL...WHICH WILL ACT TO LIMIT SFC
HEATING SOME. PREMISE OF THE FCST REMAINS UNCHANGED...WITH A SLIGHT
CHC FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION NEAR/SOUTH OF MLB-LAKE KISSIMMEE. MAY
NEED TO INCREASE POPS SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH (OKEECHOBEE TO
THE TREASURE COAST).

OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S WITH MAXES GENERALLY IN THE
M80S..AND MAYBE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER ACROSS THE SOUTH OWING TO
THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER.

&&

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR. PATCHY MIFG/BR PSBL ONCE AGAIN 08Z-12Z. ISOLD SHRA MAY
LIFT NORTHWARD FROM SOUTH FLORIDA AND AFFECT SUA TOWARDS MORNING. TS
PSBL KMLB-KSUA TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SE-S WINDS BLO 10KT THIS EVENING WILL VEER TO SWRLY OVERNIGHT/EARLY
TUE...AND SW-W LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COOL
FRONT. SEAS DROPPING BACK TO 2-3FT AS REMNANT SWELL CONTINUES TO
DECAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  67  85  63  81 /  10  10  10  10
MCO  67  86  65  84 /   0  10  10  10
MLB  69  84  67  83 /  10  20  20  20
VRB  68  84  67  84 /  10  20  30  30
LEE  67  86  64  84 /   0  10  10  10
SFB  67  86  65  84 /   0  10  10  10
ORL  69  86  67  84 /   0  10  10  10
FPR  66  84  66  83 /  10  20  40  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

KELLY/WEITLICH







000
FXUS62 KMLB 210249 AAA
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1045 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDS WILL STREAM EAST ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
THIS SHOULD LIMIT SIGNIFICANT FOG FORMATION. SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER
SOUTH FL WILL DRIFT NORTHWARD IN DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW. HAVE
ADDED A SMALL SHOWER CHANCE FOR MARTIN COUNTY TOWARD MORNING.

ON TUE...WEAK SW-WRLY SFC WINDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEAK COOL FRONT.
INFLUX OF HIGHER PWAT AIR INTO THE SRN COUNTIES COULD TOUCH OF A FEW
SHOWERS OR STORMS THERE...HOWEVER MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS AND
MOISTURE WILL ALSO BEGIN TO STREAM ENE FROM DISTURBANCE IN THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE ACROSS THE SRN THIRD OF FL...WHICH WILL ACT TO LIMIT SFC
HEATING SOME. PREMISE OF THE FCST REMAINS UNCHANGED...WITH A SLIGHT
CHC FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION NEAR/SOUTH OF MLB-LAKE KISSIMMEE. MAY
NEED TO INCREASE POPS SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH (OKEECHOBEE TO
THE TREASURE COAST).

OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S WITH MAXES GENERALLY IN THE
M80S..AND MAYBE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER ACROSS THE SOUTH OWING TO
THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER.

&&

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR. PATCHY MIFG/BR PSBL ONCE AGAIN 08Z-12Z. ISOLD SHRA MAY
LIFT NORTHWARD FROM SOUTH FLORIDA AND AFFECT SUA TOWARDS MORNING. TS
PSBL KMLB-KSUA TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SE-S WINDS BLO 10KT THIS EVENING WILL VEER TO SWRLY OVERNIGHT/EARLY
TUE...AND SW-W LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COOL
FRONT. SEAS DROPPING BACK TO 2-3FT AS REMNANT SWELL CONTINUES TO
DECAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  67  85  63  81 /  10  10  10  10
MCO  67  86  65  84 /   0  10  10  10
MLB  69  84  67  83 /  10  20  20  20
VRB  68  84  67  84 /  10  20  30  30
LEE  67  86  64  84 /   0  10  10  10
SFB  67  86  65  84 /   0  10  10  10
ORL  69  86  67  84 /   0  10  10  10
FPR  66  84  66  83 /  10  20  40  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

KELLY/WEITLICH








000
FXUS62 KMLB 210249 AAA
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1045 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDS WILL STREAM EAST ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
THIS SHOULD LIMIT SIGNIFICANT FOG FORMATION. SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER
SOUTH FL WILL DRIFT NORTHWARD IN DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW. HAVE
ADDED A SMALL SHOWER CHANCE FOR MARTIN COUNTY TOWARD MORNING.

ON TUE...WEAK SW-WRLY SFC WINDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEAK COOL FRONT.
INFLUX OF HIGHER PWAT AIR INTO THE SRN COUNTIES COULD TOUCH OF A FEW
SHOWERS OR STORMS THERE...HOWEVER MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS AND
MOISTURE WILL ALSO BEGIN TO STREAM ENE FROM DISTURBANCE IN THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE ACROSS THE SRN THIRD OF FL...WHICH WILL ACT TO LIMIT SFC
HEATING SOME. PREMISE OF THE FCST REMAINS UNCHANGED...WITH A SLIGHT
CHC FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION NEAR/SOUTH OF MLB-LAKE KISSIMMEE. MAY
NEED TO INCREASE POPS SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH (OKEECHOBEE TO
THE TREASURE COAST).

OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S WITH MAXES GENERALLY IN THE
M80S..AND MAYBE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER ACROSS THE SOUTH OWING TO
THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER.

&&

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR. PATCHY MIFG/BR PSBL ONCE AGAIN 08Z-12Z. ISOLD SHRA MAY
LIFT NORTHWARD FROM SOUTH FLORIDA AND AFFECT SUA TOWARDS MORNING. TS
PSBL KMLB-KSUA TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SE-S WINDS BLO 10KT THIS EVENING WILL VEER TO SWRLY OVERNIGHT/EARLY
TUE...AND SW-W LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COOL
FRONT. SEAS DROPPING BACK TO 2-3FT AS REMNANT SWELL CONTINUES TO
DECAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  67  85  63  81 /  10  10  10  10
MCO  67  86  65  84 /   0  10  10  10
MLB  69  84  67  83 /  10  20  20  20
VRB  68  84  67  84 /  10  20  30  30
LEE  67  86  64  84 /   0  10  10  10
SFB  67  86  65  84 /   0  10  10  10
ORL  69  86  67  84 /   0  10  10  10
FPR  66  84  66  83 /  10  20  40  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

KELLY/WEITLICH








000
FXUS62 KMLB 201956
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
355 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

OVERNIGHT/TUE...WEAK LOW LEVEL RIDGE THAT PUSHED REMNANT FRONTAL
BDRY NORTH OF THE AREA WILL BUILD NWD A LITTLE...RESULTING IN
WEAK SW-WRLY SFC WINDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEAK COOL FRONT. MID LEVEL
FLOW BACKS SLIGHT AHEAD OF WEAK VORT LOBES MOVING EAST THROUGH THE
BASE OF THE LARGE TROUGH WHICH WILL BE CARVING ITSELF OUT ACROSS
THE EASTERN U.S. INFLUX OF HIGHER PWAT AIR INTO THE SRN COS COULD
TOUCH OF A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS THERE...HOWEVER MID-UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS AND MOISTURE WILL ALSO BEGIN TO STREAM ENE FROM DISTURBANCE
IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ACROSS THE SRN THIRD OF FL...WHICH WILL ACT TO
LIMIT INSOLATION SOME. PREMISE OF THE FCST REMAINS UNCHANGED...WITH
A SLIGHT CHC FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION NEAR/SOUTH OF MLB-LAKE KISSIMMEE.

OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S WITH MAXES GENERALLY IN THE
M80S..AND MAYBE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER ACROSS THE SOUTH OWING TO
THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER.

TUE NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA AND PUSH
TOWARD SOUTHERN FLORIDA WHERE IT IS FORECAST TO STALL DURING THE DAY
ON WEDNESDAY. A DRIER AIR MASS WILL FILTER INTO NORTH LAKE AND
VOLUSIA COUNTIES AND LOWER RAIN CHANCES WHILE DEEP MOISTURE
REMAINING OVER OKEECHOBEE...SAINT LUCIE AND MARTIN COUNTIES WILL
KEEP RAIN CHANCES HIGHER. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

WED-THU...A DEEP MOISTURE RIBBON EXTENDS FROM AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTH
FLORIDA AND TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMA ISLANDS WHERE THE MOISTURE RIBBON
HOOKS UP WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM A LARGE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE MA/NY/NJ/DELMARVA PENINSULA REGION. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS PUSH GULF AND CARIBBEAN MOISTURE NORTHWARD AND OVER
LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS OFF THE ATLANTIC THAT ARE
TRANSPORTING A MORE STABLE SURFACE AIR MASS UNDERNEATH THE WARMER
MORE UNSTABLE AIR ABOVE IT. THIS SET UP INTRODUCES AN ISENTROPIC
LIFT SITUATION WITH HIGHER POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS AND MUCH
LESS...20 OR LESS...RAIN CHANCES FOR THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. BIG DIFFERENCE EXPECTED IN CLOUD COVER THE POTENTIAL
FOR MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES IN THE SOUTHERN AREAS AND PARTLY
CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE VERY FAR NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF A SOUTH TO NORTH
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE DUE TO THE ONSHORE WINDS REACHING WELL
INLAND. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE LOW 60S IN THE LESS CLOUDED AREAS TO THE MID 60S IN THE MORE
CLOUDED AREAS.

PREVIOUS EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

FRI-SAT...ON FRIDAY THE MAIN CLOSED LOW AND TROUGH ACROSS THE NE
STATES WILL BEGIN TO PUSH OFFSHORE AS ANOTHER S/W ON ITS BACK SIDE
DROPS SE TWD THE CAROLINAS. 00Z GFS/ECMWF INDICATES SOME SFC LOW
DEVELOPMENT WITH THE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES EAST OF THE YUCATAN WITH
CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THAT THE LOW TRACK WILL BE WELL TO
OUR SOUTH. EVEN WITH THIS SCENARIO MOISTURE MAY WRAP AROUND THE NW
SIDE OF THE ELONGATED DEEP MOISTURE AREA ACROSS FAR S FL IN THE
BAHAMAS AS THE LOW TRACKS E OR ENE. WILL KEEP HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES
IN THE SCATTERED RANGE ACROSS THE FAR SRN AREAS WHERE SOME ATLC
SHOWERS WILL MOVE ONSHORE WITH E AND THEN NE TO THE NORTH OF ANY
POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT AREA. FOR NRN AREAS...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS
FORECAST AT THIS TIME...THOUGH THIS COULD CHANGE SOME WITH LATER
FORECASTS. SEE LATEST 5 DAY GRAPHICAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FROM
NHC FOR THE LATEST INFO ON THIS SYSTEM.

SUN-MON...00Z GFS/ECMWF INDICATES ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE ARE AND
DEEP MOISTURE WILL PUSH THROUGH THE BAHAMAS AND AWAY FROM CENTRAL
FL. NE FLOW WILL VEER TO ONSHORE WITH ONLY SLIGHT SHOWER CHANCES
EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR THROUGH LATE EVENING...WITH PATCHY MIFG/BR PSBL ONCE
AGAIN 08Z-12Z. ISOLD TS PSBL KMLB-KSUA AFTER 18Z TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...TONIGHT/TUE NIGHT SE-S WINDS BLO 10KT THIS EVENING WILL
VEER TO SWRLY OVERNIGHT/EARLY TUE...AND SW-W LATE IN THE AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COOL FRONT. SEAS DROPPING BACK TO 2-3FT AS
REMNANT SWELL CONTINUES TO DECAY.

TUE NIGHT-THU...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND
AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHWEST GULF MEXICO
ACROSS CUBA AND INTO THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN SEA RESULTS IN
PERSISTENT EAST TO NORTHEAST WIND PATTERN TO 15 KNOTS. SEAS 2 TO 3
FEET TUE NIGHT INCREASING TO 3 TO 4 FEET NEARSHORE AND 4 TO 5 FEET
OFFSHORE WITH SOME 6 FOOT WAVES IN THE GULF STREAM EARLY THU MORNING.

FRI-SAT...EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS FRI INCREASE TO 15
TO 20 KNOTS SAT AS AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE QUICKLY SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN AND THE NORTH/CENTRAL BAHAMA
ISLANDS AND TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THEM AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER
FLORIDA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  67  85  63  81 /  10  10  10  10
MCO  67  86  65  84 /   0  10  10  10
MLB  69  84  67  83 /  10  20  20  20
VRB  68  84  67  84 /  10  20  30  30
LEE  67  86  64  84 /   0  10  10  10
SFB  67  86  65  84 /   0  10  10  10
ORL  69  86  67  84 /   0  10  10  10
FPR  66  84  66  83 /  10  20  40  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...CRISTALDI
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX....WIMMER






000
FXUS62 KMLB 201956
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
355 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

OVERNIGHT/TUE...WEAK LOW LEVEL RIDGE THAT PUSHED REMNANT FRONTAL
BDRY NORTH OF THE AREA WILL BUILD NWD A LITTLE...RESULTING IN
WEAK SW-WRLY SFC WINDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEAK COOL FRONT. MID LEVEL
FLOW BACKS SLIGHT AHEAD OF WEAK VORT LOBES MOVING EAST THROUGH THE
BASE OF THE LARGE TROUGH WHICH WILL BE CARVING ITSELF OUT ACROSS
THE EASTERN U.S. INFLUX OF HIGHER PWAT AIR INTO THE SRN COS COULD
TOUCH OF A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS THERE...HOWEVER MID-UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS AND MOISTURE WILL ALSO BEGIN TO STREAM ENE FROM DISTURBANCE
IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ACROSS THE SRN THIRD OF FL...WHICH WILL ACT TO
LIMIT INSOLATION SOME. PREMISE OF THE FCST REMAINS UNCHANGED...WITH
A SLIGHT CHC FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION NEAR/SOUTH OF MLB-LAKE KISSIMMEE.

OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S WITH MAXES GENERALLY IN THE
M80S..AND MAYBE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER ACROSS THE SOUTH OWING TO
THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER.

TUE NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA AND PUSH
TOWARD SOUTHERN FLORIDA WHERE IT IS FORECAST TO STALL DURING THE DAY
ON WEDNESDAY. A DRIER AIR MASS WILL FILTER INTO NORTH LAKE AND
VOLUSIA COUNTIES AND LOWER RAIN CHANCES WHILE DEEP MOISTURE
REMAINING OVER OKEECHOBEE...SAINT LUCIE AND MARTIN COUNTIES WILL
KEEP RAIN CHANCES HIGHER. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

WED-THU...A DEEP MOISTURE RIBBON EXTENDS FROM AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTH
FLORIDA AND TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMA ISLANDS WHERE THE MOISTURE RIBBON
HOOKS UP WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM A LARGE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE MA/NY/NJ/DELMARVA PENINSULA REGION. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS PUSH GULF AND CARIBBEAN MOISTURE NORTHWARD AND OVER
LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS OFF THE ATLANTIC THAT ARE
TRANSPORTING A MORE STABLE SURFACE AIR MASS UNDERNEATH THE WARMER
MORE UNSTABLE AIR ABOVE IT. THIS SET UP INTRODUCES AN ISENTROPIC
LIFT SITUATION WITH HIGHER POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS AND MUCH
LESS...20 OR LESS...RAIN CHANCES FOR THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. BIG DIFFERENCE EXPECTED IN CLOUD COVER THE POTENTIAL
FOR MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES IN THE SOUTHERN AREAS AND PARTLY
CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE VERY FAR NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF A SOUTH TO NORTH
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE DUE TO THE ONSHORE WINDS REACHING WELL
INLAND. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE LOW 60S IN THE LESS CLOUDED AREAS TO THE MID 60S IN THE MORE
CLOUDED AREAS.

PREVIOUS EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

FRI-SAT...ON FRIDAY THE MAIN CLOSED LOW AND TROUGH ACROSS THE NE
STATES WILL BEGIN TO PUSH OFFSHORE AS ANOTHER S/W ON ITS BACK SIDE
DROPS SE TWD THE CAROLINAS. 00Z GFS/ECMWF INDICATES SOME SFC LOW
DEVELOPMENT WITH THE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES EAST OF THE YUCATAN WITH
CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THAT THE LOW TRACK WILL BE WELL TO
OUR SOUTH. EVEN WITH THIS SCENARIO MOISTURE MAY WRAP AROUND THE NW
SIDE OF THE ELONGATED DEEP MOISTURE AREA ACROSS FAR S FL IN THE
BAHAMAS AS THE LOW TRACKS E OR ENE. WILL KEEP HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES
IN THE SCATTERED RANGE ACROSS THE FAR SRN AREAS WHERE SOME ATLC
SHOWERS WILL MOVE ONSHORE WITH E AND THEN NE TO THE NORTH OF ANY
POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT AREA. FOR NRN AREAS...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS
FORECAST AT THIS TIME...THOUGH THIS COULD CHANGE SOME WITH LATER
FORECASTS. SEE LATEST 5 DAY GRAPHICAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FROM
NHC FOR THE LATEST INFO ON THIS SYSTEM.

SUN-MON...00Z GFS/ECMWF INDICATES ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE ARE AND
DEEP MOISTURE WILL PUSH THROUGH THE BAHAMAS AND AWAY FROM CENTRAL
FL. NE FLOW WILL VEER TO ONSHORE WITH ONLY SLIGHT SHOWER CHANCES
EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR THROUGH LATE EVENING...WITH PATCHY MIFG/BR PSBL ONCE
AGAIN 08Z-12Z. ISOLD TS PSBL KMLB-KSUA AFTER 18Z TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...TONIGHT/TUE NIGHT SE-S WINDS BLO 10KT THIS EVENING WILL
VEER TO SWRLY OVERNIGHT/EARLY TUE...AND SW-W LATE IN THE AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COOL FRONT. SEAS DROPPING BACK TO 2-3FT AS
REMNANT SWELL CONTINUES TO DECAY.

TUE NIGHT-THU...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND
AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHWEST GULF MEXICO
ACROSS CUBA AND INTO THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN SEA RESULTS IN
PERSISTENT EAST TO NORTHEAST WIND PATTERN TO 15 KNOTS. SEAS 2 TO 3
FEET TUE NIGHT INCREASING TO 3 TO 4 FEET NEARSHORE AND 4 TO 5 FEET
OFFSHORE WITH SOME 6 FOOT WAVES IN THE GULF STREAM EARLY THU MORNING.

FRI-SAT...EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS FRI INCREASE TO 15
TO 20 KNOTS SAT AS AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE QUICKLY SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN AND THE NORTH/CENTRAL BAHAMA
ISLANDS AND TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THEM AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER
FLORIDA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  67  85  63  81 /  10  10  10  10
MCO  67  86  65  84 /   0  10  10  10
MLB  69  84  67  83 /  10  20  20  20
VRB  68  84  67  84 /  10  20  30  30
LEE  67  86  64  84 /   0  10  10  10
SFB  67  86  65  84 /   0  10  10  10
ORL  69  86  67  84 /   0  10  10  10
FPR  66  84  66  83 /  10  20  40  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...CRISTALDI
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX....WIMMER







000
FXUS62 KMLB 201443
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1035 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT...REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED ALONG AND TO THE
ESE OF KXMR...THOUGH IN THE LAST FEW HOURS SEEMS TO BE STARTING ITS
ADVERTISED NWD PIVOT (INTERESTING TO SEE THE FRONTOLYTIC "SHEDDING"
OF VORTICITY ALONG IT IN VIS IMAGERY THIS MORNING). OVERNIGHT SHRA
AND SPRINKLES OVER VOLUSIA/NRN BREVARD COS SAVE FOR A FEW SMALLER
CELLS JUST OFFSHORE MOSQUITO LAGOON-EDGEWATER. SOME CLOUDS STILL
LINGERING IN THIS AREA...OTHERWISE SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT EASTERLY
WINDS FOR THE MOST PART...WITH 14Z TEMPS IN THE U70S AREAWIDE.

MORNING RAOBS FROM BOTH JAX/XMR SHOW THE REMNANT FRONTAL MOISTURE
BELOW H75...WHILE SHALLOWER/MORE SPARSE MOISTURE EXISTS TO BOTH THE
SOUTH (MFL) AND WEST (TBW).

REST OF TODAY....FEW LINGERING SPRINKLES ALONG COASTAL VOLUSIA WILL
LIFT NORTH AND PULL OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES WITH TEMPS WARMING TO THE U80S INLAND...AND M80S CLOSER TO
THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. SOME BKN VFR CIGS BKN040-060 TIX-DAB THROUGH ABOUT
16Z-17Z.

&&

.MARINE...CURRENT BUOY AND C-MAN OBS SHOW SEAS NO HIGHER THAN 4FT
OFFSHORE UNDER A GENTLE TO MODERATE ONSHORE WIND...VEERING FROM E TO
ESE-SE. 3-4FT SEAS LIKELY FALLING BACK FURTHER TO ~3FT BY TONIGHT.

&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...CRISTALDI
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX....WIMMER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014/

TONIGHT...DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER LAND TONIGHT WITH A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE ATLANTIC. LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 60S...WITH
A FEW UPPER 60S ALONG THE SPACE AND TREASURE COASTS.

TUE...A MID LAYER TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST COAST AND MOISTURE
RETURNING FROM THE SOUTH WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS FROM SRN OSCEOLA/SRN BREVARD SOUTH TO
OKEECHOBEE COUNTY AND THE TREASURE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON. THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE RETURN WILL EXIST FROM OKEECHOBEE COUNTY TO MARTIN
AND ST LUCIE COUNTIES WHERE ISOLATED AFTERNOON STORMS WILL BE
FAVORED. FURTHER NORTH EXTENT OF DEEPER MOISTURE RETURN MAKES
CONVECTIVE PROBABILITIES SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. WILL GO WITH A SLGT CHC
OF AFTERNOON STORMS WITH SOME DYNAMIC SUPPORT WITH THE RR QUAD OF AN
80 KT JET AND 12KM NAM SHOWS SOME DISCRETE CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN
THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BE IN THE MIDDLE 80S IN
THE PREFRONTAL AIRMASS.

TUE NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL FL AND PUSH TWD
SRN SECTIONS WITH A DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO NRN LAKE AND VOLUSIA
COUNTIES AND DEEP MOISTURE REMAINING ACROSS OKEECHOBEE COUNTY AND
THE TREASURE COAST. WILL KEEP EVENING CONVECTIVE CHANCES CONFINED TO
SRN AREAS THROUGH LATE EVENING. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

WED-THU...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TWD THE SE STATES AS A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY PUSHES ACROSS THE SRN COUNTIES WED TWD LAKE
OKEECHOBEE ON THU. NORTHERLY LOW LVL FLOW WILL VEER TO THE NE BEHIND
THE BOUNDARY WITH DEEP DRYING ACROSS NRN SECTIONS. CLOSER TO THE
SLOW MOVING FRONT DEEP MOISTURE WILL RESIDE AND WILL KEEP LOW
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MAINLY ACROSS SRN SECTIONS FOR MID WEEK.
00Z GFS INDICATES TROPICAL DISTURBANCE NEAR THE YUCATAN WILL BEGIN
TO EJECT EASTWARD BY THU AFTN. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.

FRI-SAT...ON FRIDAY THE MAIN CLOSED LOW AND TROUGH ACROSS THE NE
STATES WILL BEGIN TO PUSH OFFSHORE AS ANOTHER S/W ON ITS BACK SIDE
DROPS SE TWD THE CAROLINAS. 00Z GFS/ECMWF INDICATES SOME SFC LOW
DEVELOPMENT WITH THE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES EAST OF THE YUCATAN WITH
CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THAT THE LOW TRACK WILL BE WELL TO
OUR SOUTH. EVEN WITH THIS SCENARIO MOISTURE MAY WRAP AROUND THE NW
SIDE OF THE ELONGATED DEEP MOISTURE AREA ACROSS FAR S FL IN THE
BAHAMAS AS THE LOW TRACKS E OR ENE. WILL KEEP HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES
IN THE SCATTERED RANGE ACROSS THE FAR SRN AREAS WHERE SOME ATLC
SHOWERS WILL MOVE ONSHORE WITH E AND THEN NE TO THE NORTH OF ANY
POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT AREA. FOR NRN AREAS...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS
FORECAST AT THIS TIME...THOUGH THIS COULD CHANGE SOME WITH LATER
FORECASTS. SEE LATEST 5 DAY GRAPHICAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FROM
NHC FOR THE LATEST INFO ON THIS SYSTEM.

SUN-MON...00Z GFS/ECMWF INDICATES ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE ARE AND
DEEP MOISTURE WILL PUSH THROUGH THE BAHAMAS AND AWAY FROM CENTRAL
FL. NE FLOW WILL VEER TO ONSHORE WITH ONLY SLIGHT SHOWER CHANCES
EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...SPOTTY MVFR MIFG/BR THIS MORNING THROUGH 12Z IN ALL
LOCATIONS EXCEPT EAST OF KTIX-KDED-KOMN. LINE OF ISOLD-WDLY SCT
-SHRA FROM ATLC CROSSING COAST AFFECTING AREAS EAST OF KTIX-KDED
-KOMN THROUGH 16Z WITH TEMPO MVFR CIGS FL020-030. OTHERWISE...
PREVAILING VFR.

&&

.MARINE...

TODAY-TONIGHT...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY LOCATED AROUND CAPE
CANAVERAL WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION TODAY. FOR THE WATERS
NORTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL...EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS 10-15KTS BECOMING
SOUTHEAST BY LATE AFTERNOON. SOUTH OF CAPE
CANAVERAL...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS 5-10KTS. SOUTH WINDS 10-15KTS OVER
ALL THE WATERS OVERNIGHT BECOMING WEST-SOUTHWEST TOWARDS DAYBREAK AS
THE FRONT MOVES BACK SOUTH.

SEAS 2-3FT NEARSHORE AND 3-4FT OFFSHORE WITH UP TO 5FT OVER THE GULF
STREAM. DOMINANT PERIODS 9-11SEC...WITH 6-7SEC OVER GULF STREAM.

A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH A FRONT MOVING
ACROSS THE WATERS WED INTO WED NIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE N
TO NE INTO LATE WEEK WITH SEAS BUILDING TO AT LEAST SCEC LEVELS BY
THU INTO FRIDAY AS WINDS INCREASE TO 15-20 KNOTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  63  85  65  81 /  10  10  10  10
MCO  66  86  67  84 /  10  10  10  10
MLB  67  84  69  84 /  10  20  10  20
VRB  66  85  68  84 /  10  20  20  20
LEE  67  86  66  84 /  10  10  10  10
SFB  65  86  67  85 /  10  10  10  10
ORL  67  86  68  84 /  10  10  10  10
FPR  66  85  68  84 /  10  20  20  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$














000
FXUS62 KMLB 201443
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1035 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT...REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED ALONG AND TO THE
ESE OF KXMR...THOUGH IN THE LAST FEW HOURS SEEMS TO BE STARTING ITS
ADVERTISED NWD PIVOT (INTERESTING TO SEE THE FRONTOLYTIC "SHEDDING"
OF VORTICITY ALONG IT IN VIS IMAGERY THIS MORNING). OVERNIGHT SHRA
AND SPRINKLES OVER VOLUSIA/NRN BREVARD COS SAVE FOR A FEW SMALLER
CELLS JUST OFFSHORE MOSQUITO LAGOON-EDGEWATER. SOME CLOUDS STILL
LINGERING IN THIS AREA...OTHERWISE SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT EASTERLY
WINDS FOR THE MOST PART...WITH 14Z TEMPS IN THE U70S AREAWIDE.

MORNING RAOBS FROM BOTH JAX/XMR SHOW THE REMNANT FRONTAL MOISTURE
BELOW H75...WHILE SHALLOWER/MORE SPARSE MOISTURE EXISTS TO BOTH THE
SOUTH (MFL) AND WEST (TBW).

REST OF TODAY....FEW LINGERING SPRINKLES ALONG COASTAL VOLUSIA WILL
LIFT NORTH AND PULL OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES WITH TEMPS WARMING TO THE U80S INLAND...AND M80S CLOSER TO
THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. SOME BKN VFR CIGS BKN040-060 TIX-DAB THROUGH ABOUT
16Z-17Z.

&&

.MARINE...CURRENT BUOY AND C-MAN OBS SHOW SEAS NO HIGHER THAN 4FT
OFFSHORE UNDER A GENTLE TO MODERATE ONSHORE WIND...VEERING FROM E TO
ESE-SE. 3-4FT SEAS LIKELY FALLING BACK FURTHER TO ~3FT BY TONIGHT.

&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...CRISTALDI
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX....WIMMER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014/

TONIGHT...DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER LAND TONIGHT WITH A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE ATLANTIC. LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 60S...WITH
A FEW UPPER 60S ALONG THE SPACE AND TREASURE COASTS.

TUE...A MID LAYER TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST COAST AND MOISTURE
RETURNING FROM THE SOUTH WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS FROM SRN OSCEOLA/SRN BREVARD SOUTH TO
OKEECHOBEE COUNTY AND THE TREASURE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON. THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE RETURN WILL EXIST FROM OKEECHOBEE COUNTY TO MARTIN
AND ST LUCIE COUNTIES WHERE ISOLATED AFTERNOON STORMS WILL BE
FAVORED. FURTHER NORTH EXTENT OF DEEPER MOISTURE RETURN MAKES
CONVECTIVE PROBABILITIES SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. WILL GO WITH A SLGT CHC
OF AFTERNOON STORMS WITH SOME DYNAMIC SUPPORT WITH THE RR QUAD OF AN
80 KT JET AND 12KM NAM SHOWS SOME DISCRETE CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN
THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BE IN THE MIDDLE 80S IN
THE PREFRONTAL AIRMASS.

TUE NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL FL AND PUSH TWD
SRN SECTIONS WITH A DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO NRN LAKE AND VOLUSIA
COUNTIES AND DEEP MOISTURE REMAINING ACROSS OKEECHOBEE COUNTY AND
THE TREASURE COAST. WILL KEEP EVENING CONVECTIVE CHANCES CONFINED TO
SRN AREAS THROUGH LATE EVENING. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

WED-THU...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TWD THE SE STATES AS A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY PUSHES ACROSS THE SRN COUNTIES WED TWD LAKE
OKEECHOBEE ON THU. NORTHERLY LOW LVL FLOW WILL VEER TO THE NE BEHIND
THE BOUNDARY WITH DEEP DRYING ACROSS NRN SECTIONS. CLOSER TO THE
SLOW MOVING FRONT DEEP MOISTURE WILL RESIDE AND WILL KEEP LOW
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MAINLY ACROSS SRN SECTIONS FOR MID WEEK.
00Z GFS INDICATES TROPICAL DISTURBANCE NEAR THE YUCATAN WILL BEGIN
TO EJECT EASTWARD BY THU AFTN. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.

FRI-SAT...ON FRIDAY THE MAIN CLOSED LOW AND TROUGH ACROSS THE NE
STATES WILL BEGIN TO PUSH OFFSHORE AS ANOTHER S/W ON ITS BACK SIDE
DROPS SE TWD THE CAROLINAS. 00Z GFS/ECMWF INDICATES SOME SFC LOW
DEVELOPMENT WITH THE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES EAST OF THE YUCATAN WITH
CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THAT THE LOW TRACK WILL BE WELL TO
OUR SOUTH. EVEN WITH THIS SCENARIO MOISTURE MAY WRAP AROUND THE NW
SIDE OF THE ELONGATED DEEP MOISTURE AREA ACROSS FAR S FL IN THE
BAHAMAS AS THE LOW TRACKS E OR ENE. WILL KEEP HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES
IN THE SCATTERED RANGE ACROSS THE FAR SRN AREAS WHERE SOME ATLC
SHOWERS WILL MOVE ONSHORE WITH E AND THEN NE TO THE NORTH OF ANY
POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT AREA. FOR NRN AREAS...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS
FORECAST AT THIS TIME...THOUGH THIS COULD CHANGE SOME WITH LATER
FORECASTS. SEE LATEST 5 DAY GRAPHICAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FROM
NHC FOR THE LATEST INFO ON THIS SYSTEM.

SUN-MON...00Z GFS/ECMWF INDICATES ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE ARE AND
DEEP MOISTURE WILL PUSH THROUGH THE BAHAMAS AND AWAY FROM CENTRAL
FL. NE FLOW WILL VEER TO ONSHORE WITH ONLY SLIGHT SHOWER CHANCES
EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...SPOTTY MVFR MIFG/BR THIS MORNING THROUGH 12Z IN ALL
LOCATIONS EXCEPT EAST OF KTIX-KDED-KOMN. LINE OF ISOLD-WDLY SCT
-SHRA FROM ATLC CROSSING COAST AFFECTING AREAS EAST OF KTIX-KDED
-KOMN THROUGH 16Z WITH TEMPO MVFR CIGS FL020-030. OTHERWISE...
PREVAILING VFR.

&&

.MARINE...

TODAY-TONIGHT...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY LOCATED AROUND CAPE
CANAVERAL WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION TODAY. FOR THE WATERS
NORTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL...EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS 10-15KTS BECOMING
SOUTHEAST BY LATE AFTERNOON. SOUTH OF CAPE
CANAVERAL...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS 5-10KTS. SOUTH WINDS 10-15KTS OVER
ALL THE WATERS OVERNIGHT BECOMING WEST-SOUTHWEST TOWARDS DAYBREAK AS
THE FRONT MOVES BACK SOUTH.

SEAS 2-3FT NEARSHORE AND 3-4FT OFFSHORE WITH UP TO 5FT OVER THE GULF
STREAM. DOMINANT PERIODS 9-11SEC...WITH 6-7SEC OVER GULF STREAM.

A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH A FRONT MOVING
ACROSS THE WATERS WED INTO WED NIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE N
TO NE INTO LATE WEEK WITH SEAS BUILDING TO AT LEAST SCEC LEVELS BY
THU INTO FRIDAY AS WINDS INCREASE TO 15-20 KNOTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  63  85  65  81 /  10  10  10  10
MCO  66  86  67  84 /  10  10  10  10
MLB  67  84  69  84 /  10  20  10  20
VRB  66  85  68  84 /  10  20  20  20
LEE  67  86  66  84 /  10  10  10  10
SFB  65  86  67  85 /  10  10  10  10
ORL  67  86  68  84 /  10  10  10  10
FPR  66  85  68  84 /  10  20  20  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$













000
FXUS62 KMLB 200754
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
354 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY-TONIGHT...ONGOING THIN LINE OF SHOWERS STREAMING FROM THE
ATLANTIC INTO THE COAST IS APPROXIMATELY MARKING THE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS MORNING.
ACTIVITY HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT ALONG A ESE-WNW ORIENTED LINE
FROM OVER THE ATLANTIC INTO THE CAPE AND ACROSS SOUTHERN VOLUSIA
COUNTY.

THIS BOUNDARY HAS ALREADY LIFTED NORTHWARDS AND BECOME MORE N-S
ORIENTED THAN LAST EVENING. THE TREND WILL CONTINUE TO BE FOR THIS
BAND OF SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARDS ACROSS VOLUSIA COUNTY
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT LIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH WITH
MOST OF THE SHOWERS EVENTUALLY REMAINING OVER THE LOCAL ATLANTIC AS
LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
BOUNDARY. WILL KEEP ISOLD-SCT LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST ALONG
THE NORTH BREVARD AND VOLUSIA COASTS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH
A FEW REACHING INTO INTERIOR VOLUSIA COUNTY.

OUTSIDE OF THIS ACTIVITY...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY
UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL REACH
INTO THE MID-UPPER 80S OVER THE INTERIOR AND LOW 80S ALONG THE
COAST.

DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER LAND TONIGHT WITH A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS OVER THE ATLANTIC. LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 60S...WITH A FEW
UPPER 60S ALONG THE SPACE AND TREASURE COASTS.

TUE...A MID LAYER TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST COAST AND MOISTURE
RETURNING FROM THE SOUTH WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS FROM SRN OSCEOLA/SRN BREVARD SOUTH TO
OKEECHOBEE COUNTY AND THE TREASURE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON. THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE RETURN WILL EXIST FROM OKEECHOBEE COUNTY TO MARTIN
AND ST LUCIE COUNTIES WHERE ISOLATED AFTERNOON STORMS WILL BE
FAVORED. FURTHER NORTH EXTENT OF DEEPER MOISTURE RETURN MAKES
CONVECTIVE PROBABILITIES SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. WILL GO WITH A SLGT CHC
OF AFTERNOON STORMS WITH SOME DYNAMIC SUPPORT WITH THE RR QUAD OF AN
80 KT JET AND 12KM NAM SHOWS SOME DISCRETE CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN
THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BE IN THE MIDDLE 80S IN
THE PREFRONTAL AIRMASS.

TUE NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL FL AND PUSH TWD
SRN SECTIONS WITH A DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO NRN LAKE AND VOLUSIA
COUNTIES AND DEEP MOISTURE REMAINING ACROSS OKEECHOBEE COUNTY AND
THE TREASURE COAST. WILL KEEP EVENING CONVECTIVE CHANCES CONFINED TO
SRN AREAS THROUGH LATE EVENING. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

WED-THU...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TWD THE SE STATES AS A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY PUSHES ACROSS THE SRN COUNTIES WED TWD LAKE
OKEECHOBEE ON THU. NORTHERLY LOW LVL FLOW WILL VEER TO THE NE BEHIND
THE BOUNDARY WITH DEEP DRYING ACROSS NRN SECTIONS. CLOSER TO THE
SLOW MOVING FRONT DEEP MOISTURE WILL RESIDE AND WILL KEEP LOW
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MAINLY ACROSS SRN SECTIONS FOR MID WEEK.
00Z GFS INDICATES TROPICAL DISTURBANCE NEAR THE YUCATAN WILL BEGIN
TO EJECT EASTWARD BY THU AFTN. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.

FRI-SAT...ON FRIDAY THE MAIN CLOSED LOW AND TROUGH ACROSS THE NE
STATES WILL BEGIN TO PUSH OFFSHORE AS ANOTHER S/W ON ITS BACK SIDE
DROPS SE TWD THE CAROLINAS. 00Z GFS/ECMWF INDICATES SOME SFC LOW
DEVELOPMENT WITH THE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES EAST OF THE YUCATAN WITH
CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THAT THE LOW TRACK WILL BE WELL TO
OUR SOUTH. EVEN WITH THIS SCENARIO MOISTURE MAY WRAP AROUND THE NW
SIDE OF THE ELONGATED DEEP MOISTURE AREA ACROSS FAR S FL IN THE
BAHAMAS AS THE LOW TRACKS E OR ENE. WILL KEEP HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES
IN THE SCATTERED RANGE ACROSS THE FAR SRN AREAS WHERE SOME ATLC
SHOWERS WILL MOVE ONSHORE WITH E AND THEN NE TO THE NORTH OF ANY
POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT AREA. FOR NRN AREAS...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS
FORECAST AT THIS TIME...THOUGH THIS COULD CHANGE SOME WITH LATER
FORECASTS. SEE LATEST 5 DAY GRAPHICAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FROM
NHC FOR THE LATEST INFO ON THIS SYSTEM.

SUN-MON...00Z GFS/ECMWF INDICATES ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE ARE AND
DEEP MOISTURE WILL PUSH THROUGH THE BAHAMAS AND AWAY FROM CENTRAL
FL. NE FLOW WILL VEER TO ONSHORE WITH ONLY SLIGHT SHOWER CHANCES
EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...SPOTTY MVFR MIFG/BR THIS MORNING THROUGH 12Z IN ALL
LOCATIONS EXCEPT EAST OF KTIX-KDED-OMN. LINE OF ISOLD-WDLY SCT -SHRA
FROM ATLC CROSSING COAST AFFECTING AREAS EAST OF KTIX-KDED-KOMN
THROUGH 16Z WITH TEMPO MVFR CIGS FL020-030. OTHERWISE...PREVAILING
VFR.

&&

.MARINE...

TODAY-TONIGHT...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY LOCATED AROUND CAPE
CANAVERAL WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION TODAY. FOR THE WATERS
NORTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL...EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS 10-15KTS BECOMING
SOUTHEAST BY LATE AFTERNOON. SOUTH OF CAPE
CANAVERAL...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS 5-10KTS. SOUTH WINDS 10-15KTS OVER
ALL THE WATERS OVERNIGHT BECOMING WEST-SOUTHWEST TOWARDS DAYBREAK AS
THE FRONT MOVES BACK SOUTH.

SEAS 2-3FT NEARSHORE AND 3-4FT OFFSHORE WITH UP TO 5FT OVER THE GULF
STREAM. DOMINANT PERIODS 9-11SEC...WITH 6-7SEC OVER GULF STREAM.

A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH A FRONT MOVING
ACROSS THE WATERS WED INTO WED NIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE N
TO NE INTO LATE WEEK WITH SEAS BUILDING TO AT LEAST SCEC LEVELS BY
THU INTO FRIDAY AS WINDS INCREASE TO 15-20 KNOTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  63  85  65  81 /  10  10  10  10
MCO  66  86  67  84 /  10  10  10  10
MLB  67  84  69  84 /  10  20  10  20
VRB  66  85  68  84 /  10  20  20  20
LEE  67  86  66  84 /  10  10  10  10
SFB  65  86  67  85 /  10  10  10  10
ORL  67  86  68  84 /  10  10  10  10
FPR  66  85  68  84 /  10  20  20  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...MOSES
LONG TERM....VOLKMER









000
FXUS62 KMLB 200754
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
354 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY-TONIGHT...ONGOING THIN LINE OF SHOWERS STREAMING FROM THE
ATLANTIC INTO THE COAST IS APPROXIMATELY MARKING THE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS MORNING.
ACTIVITY HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT ALONG A ESE-WNW ORIENTED LINE
FROM OVER THE ATLANTIC INTO THE CAPE AND ACROSS SOUTHERN VOLUSIA
COUNTY.

THIS BOUNDARY HAS ALREADY LIFTED NORTHWARDS AND BECOME MORE N-S
ORIENTED THAN LAST EVENING. THE TREND WILL CONTINUE TO BE FOR THIS
BAND OF SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARDS ACROSS VOLUSIA COUNTY
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT LIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH WITH
MOST OF THE SHOWERS EVENTUALLY REMAINING OVER THE LOCAL ATLANTIC AS
LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
BOUNDARY. WILL KEEP ISOLD-SCT LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST ALONG
THE NORTH BREVARD AND VOLUSIA COASTS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH
A FEW REACHING INTO INTERIOR VOLUSIA COUNTY.

OUTSIDE OF THIS ACTIVITY...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY
UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL REACH
INTO THE MID-UPPER 80S OVER THE INTERIOR AND LOW 80S ALONG THE
COAST.

DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER LAND TONIGHT WITH A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS OVER THE ATLANTIC. LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 60S...WITH A FEW
UPPER 60S ALONG THE SPACE AND TREASURE COASTS.

TUE...A MID LAYER TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST COAST AND MOISTURE
RETURNING FROM THE SOUTH WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS FROM SRN OSCEOLA/SRN BREVARD SOUTH TO
OKEECHOBEE COUNTY AND THE TREASURE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON. THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE RETURN WILL EXIST FROM OKEECHOBEE COUNTY TO MARTIN
AND ST LUCIE COUNTIES WHERE ISOLATED AFTERNOON STORMS WILL BE
FAVORED. FURTHER NORTH EXTENT OF DEEPER MOISTURE RETURN MAKES
CONVECTIVE PROBABILITIES SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. WILL GO WITH A SLGT CHC
OF AFTERNOON STORMS WITH SOME DYNAMIC SUPPORT WITH THE RR QUAD OF AN
80 KT JET AND 12KM NAM SHOWS SOME DISCRETE CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN
THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BE IN THE MIDDLE 80S IN
THE PREFRONTAL AIRMASS.

TUE NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL FL AND PUSH TWD
SRN SECTIONS WITH A DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO NRN LAKE AND VOLUSIA
COUNTIES AND DEEP MOISTURE REMAINING ACROSS OKEECHOBEE COUNTY AND
THE TREASURE COAST. WILL KEEP EVENING CONVECTIVE CHANCES CONFINED TO
SRN AREAS THROUGH LATE EVENING. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

WED-THU...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TWD THE SE STATES AS A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY PUSHES ACROSS THE SRN COUNTIES WED TWD LAKE
OKEECHOBEE ON THU. NORTHERLY LOW LVL FLOW WILL VEER TO THE NE BEHIND
THE BOUNDARY WITH DEEP DRYING ACROSS NRN SECTIONS. CLOSER TO THE
SLOW MOVING FRONT DEEP MOISTURE WILL RESIDE AND WILL KEEP LOW
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MAINLY ACROSS SRN SECTIONS FOR MID WEEK.
00Z GFS INDICATES TROPICAL DISTURBANCE NEAR THE YUCATAN WILL BEGIN
TO EJECT EASTWARD BY THU AFTN. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.

FRI-SAT...ON FRIDAY THE MAIN CLOSED LOW AND TROUGH ACROSS THE NE
STATES WILL BEGIN TO PUSH OFFSHORE AS ANOTHER S/W ON ITS BACK SIDE
DROPS SE TWD THE CAROLINAS. 00Z GFS/ECMWF INDICATES SOME SFC LOW
DEVELOPMENT WITH THE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES EAST OF THE YUCATAN WITH
CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THAT THE LOW TRACK WILL BE WELL TO
OUR SOUTH. EVEN WITH THIS SCENARIO MOISTURE MAY WRAP AROUND THE NW
SIDE OF THE ELONGATED DEEP MOISTURE AREA ACROSS FAR S FL IN THE
BAHAMAS AS THE LOW TRACKS E OR ENE. WILL KEEP HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES
IN THE SCATTERED RANGE ACROSS THE FAR SRN AREAS WHERE SOME ATLC
SHOWERS WILL MOVE ONSHORE WITH E AND THEN NE TO THE NORTH OF ANY
POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT AREA. FOR NRN AREAS...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS
FORECAST AT THIS TIME...THOUGH THIS COULD CHANGE SOME WITH LATER
FORECASTS. SEE LATEST 5 DAY GRAPHICAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FROM
NHC FOR THE LATEST INFO ON THIS SYSTEM.

SUN-MON...00Z GFS/ECMWF INDICATES ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE ARE AND
DEEP MOISTURE WILL PUSH THROUGH THE BAHAMAS AND AWAY FROM CENTRAL
FL. NE FLOW WILL VEER TO ONSHORE WITH ONLY SLIGHT SHOWER CHANCES
EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...SPOTTY MVFR MIFG/BR THIS MORNING THROUGH 12Z IN ALL
LOCATIONS EXCEPT EAST OF KTIX-KDED-OMN. LINE OF ISOLD-WDLY SCT -SHRA
FROM ATLC CROSSING COAST AFFECTING AREAS EAST OF KTIX-KDED-KOMN
THROUGH 16Z WITH TEMPO MVFR CIGS FL020-030. OTHERWISE...PREVAILING
VFR.

&&

.MARINE...

TODAY-TONIGHT...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY LOCATED AROUND CAPE
CANAVERAL WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION TODAY. FOR THE WATERS
NORTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL...EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS 10-15KTS BECOMING
SOUTHEAST BY LATE AFTERNOON. SOUTH OF CAPE
CANAVERAL...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS 5-10KTS. SOUTH WINDS 10-15KTS OVER
ALL THE WATERS OVERNIGHT BECOMING WEST-SOUTHWEST TOWARDS DAYBREAK AS
THE FRONT MOVES BACK SOUTH.

SEAS 2-3FT NEARSHORE AND 3-4FT OFFSHORE WITH UP TO 5FT OVER THE GULF
STREAM. DOMINANT PERIODS 9-11SEC...WITH 6-7SEC OVER GULF STREAM.

A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH A FRONT MOVING
ACROSS THE WATERS WED INTO WED NIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE N
TO NE INTO LATE WEEK WITH SEAS BUILDING TO AT LEAST SCEC LEVELS BY
THU INTO FRIDAY AS WINDS INCREASE TO 15-20 KNOTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  63  85  65  81 /  10  10  10  10
MCO  66  86  67  84 /  10  10  10  10
MLB  67  84  69  84 /  10  20  10  20
VRB  66  85  68  84 /  10  20  20  20
LEE  67  86  66  84 /  10  10  10  10
SFB  65  86  67  85 /  10  10  10  10
ORL  67  86  68  84 /  10  10  10  10
FPR  66  85  68  84 /  10  20  20  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...MOSES
LONG TERM....VOLKMER









000
FXUS62 KMLB 200754
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
354 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY-TONIGHT...ONGOING THIN LINE OF SHOWERS STREAMING FROM THE
ATLANTIC INTO THE COAST IS APPROXIMATELY MARKING THE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS MORNING.
ACTIVITY HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT ALONG A ESE-WNW ORIENTED LINE
FROM OVER THE ATLANTIC INTO THE CAPE AND ACROSS SOUTHERN VOLUSIA
COUNTY.

THIS BOUNDARY HAS ALREADY LIFTED NORTHWARDS AND BECOME MORE N-S
ORIENTED THAN LAST EVENING. THE TREND WILL CONTINUE TO BE FOR THIS
BAND OF SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARDS ACROSS VOLUSIA COUNTY
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT LIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH WITH
MOST OF THE SHOWERS EVENTUALLY REMAINING OVER THE LOCAL ATLANTIC AS
LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
BOUNDARY. WILL KEEP ISOLD-SCT LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST ALONG
THE NORTH BREVARD AND VOLUSIA COASTS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH
A FEW REACHING INTO INTERIOR VOLUSIA COUNTY.

OUTSIDE OF THIS ACTIVITY...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY
UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL REACH
INTO THE MID-UPPER 80S OVER THE INTERIOR AND LOW 80S ALONG THE
COAST.

DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER LAND TONIGHT WITH A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS OVER THE ATLANTIC. LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 60S...WITH A FEW
UPPER 60S ALONG THE SPACE AND TREASURE COASTS.

TUE...A MID LAYER TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST COAST AND MOISTURE
RETURNING FROM THE SOUTH WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS FROM SRN OSCEOLA/SRN BREVARD SOUTH TO
OKEECHOBEE COUNTY AND THE TREASURE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON. THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE RETURN WILL EXIST FROM OKEECHOBEE COUNTY TO MARTIN
AND ST LUCIE COUNTIES WHERE ISOLATED AFTERNOON STORMS WILL BE
FAVORED. FURTHER NORTH EXTENT OF DEEPER MOISTURE RETURN MAKES
CONVECTIVE PROBABILITIES SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. WILL GO WITH A SLGT CHC
OF AFTERNOON STORMS WITH SOME DYNAMIC SUPPORT WITH THE RR QUAD OF AN
80 KT JET AND 12KM NAM SHOWS SOME DISCRETE CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN
THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BE IN THE MIDDLE 80S IN
THE PREFRONTAL AIRMASS.

TUE NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL FL AND PUSH TWD
SRN SECTIONS WITH A DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO NRN LAKE AND VOLUSIA
COUNTIES AND DEEP MOISTURE REMAINING ACROSS OKEECHOBEE COUNTY AND
THE TREASURE COAST. WILL KEEP EVENING CONVECTIVE CHANCES CONFINED TO
SRN AREAS THROUGH LATE EVENING. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

WED-THU...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TWD THE SE STATES AS A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY PUSHES ACROSS THE SRN COUNTIES WED TWD LAKE
OKEECHOBEE ON THU. NORTHERLY LOW LVL FLOW WILL VEER TO THE NE BEHIND
THE BOUNDARY WITH DEEP DRYING ACROSS NRN SECTIONS. CLOSER TO THE
SLOW MOVING FRONT DEEP MOISTURE WILL RESIDE AND WILL KEEP LOW
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MAINLY ACROSS SRN SECTIONS FOR MID WEEK.
00Z GFS INDICATES TROPICAL DISTURBANCE NEAR THE YUCATAN WILL BEGIN
TO EJECT EASTWARD BY THU AFTN. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.

FRI-SAT...ON FRIDAY THE MAIN CLOSED LOW AND TROUGH ACROSS THE NE
STATES WILL BEGIN TO PUSH OFFSHORE AS ANOTHER S/W ON ITS BACK SIDE
DROPS SE TWD THE CAROLINAS. 00Z GFS/ECMWF INDICATES SOME SFC LOW
DEVELOPMENT WITH THE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES EAST OF THE YUCATAN WITH
CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THAT THE LOW TRACK WILL BE WELL TO
OUR SOUTH. EVEN WITH THIS SCENARIO MOISTURE MAY WRAP AROUND THE NW
SIDE OF THE ELONGATED DEEP MOISTURE AREA ACROSS FAR S FL IN THE
BAHAMAS AS THE LOW TRACKS E OR ENE. WILL KEEP HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES
IN THE SCATTERED RANGE ACROSS THE FAR SRN AREAS WHERE SOME ATLC
SHOWERS WILL MOVE ONSHORE WITH E AND THEN NE TO THE NORTH OF ANY
POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT AREA. FOR NRN AREAS...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS
FORECAST AT THIS TIME...THOUGH THIS COULD CHANGE SOME WITH LATER
FORECASTS. SEE LATEST 5 DAY GRAPHICAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FROM
NHC FOR THE LATEST INFO ON THIS SYSTEM.

SUN-MON...00Z GFS/ECMWF INDICATES ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE ARE AND
DEEP MOISTURE WILL PUSH THROUGH THE BAHAMAS AND AWAY FROM CENTRAL
FL. NE FLOW WILL VEER TO ONSHORE WITH ONLY SLIGHT SHOWER CHANCES
EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...SPOTTY MVFR MIFG/BR THIS MORNING THROUGH 12Z IN ALL
LOCATIONS EXCEPT EAST OF KTIX-KDED-OMN. LINE OF ISOLD-WDLY SCT -SHRA
FROM ATLC CROSSING COAST AFFECTING AREAS EAST OF KTIX-KDED-KOMN
THROUGH 16Z WITH TEMPO MVFR CIGS FL020-030. OTHERWISE...PREVAILING
VFR.

&&

.MARINE...

TODAY-TONIGHT...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY LOCATED AROUND CAPE
CANAVERAL WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION TODAY. FOR THE WATERS
NORTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL...EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS 10-15KTS BECOMING
SOUTHEAST BY LATE AFTERNOON. SOUTH OF CAPE
CANAVERAL...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS 5-10KTS. SOUTH WINDS 10-15KTS OVER
ALL THE WATERS OVERNIGHT BECOMING WEST-SOUTHWEST TOWARDS DAYBREAK AS
THE FRONT MOVES BACK SOUTH.

SEAS 2-3FT NEARSHORE AND 3-4FT OFFSHORE WITH UP TO 5FT OVER THE GULF
STREAM. DOMINANT PERIODS 9-11SEC...WITH 6-7SEC OVER GULF STREAM.

A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH A FRONT MOVING
ACROSS THE WATERS WED INTO WED NIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE N
TO NE INTO LATE WEEK WITH SEAS BUILDING TO AT LEAST SCEC LEVELS BY
THU INTO FRIDAY AS WINDS INCREASE TO 15-20 KNOTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  63  85  65  81 /  10  10  10  10
MCO  66  86  67  84 /  10  10  10  10
MLB  67  84  69  84 /  10  20  10  20
VRB  66  85  68  84 /  10  20  20  20
LEE  67  86  66  84 /  10  10  10  10
SFB  65  86  67  85 /  10  10  10  10
ORL  67  86  68  84 /  10  10  10  10
FPR  66  85  68  84 /  10  20  20  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...MOSES
LONG TERM....VOLKMER








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