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000
FXUS62 KMLB 280822
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
415 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT...LOCAL 07Z METARS PLACE THE QSTNRY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ROUGHLY
NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF A LINE FROM TAMPA TO VERO BEACH...SOUTH OF THE
WPC ANALYZED POSN. LATEST IN A SERIES OF GOMEX MCS CENTERED SOUTH OF
MOB-PNS WITH LARGE AREA OF DEBRIS RAIN EXTENDING EWD ACROSS THE NERN
GOMEX AND ONSHORE THE FL NATURE COAST (WEST COAST NORTH OF GREATER
TAMPA). THE MAIN COLD TOPPED CONVECTION IS DROPPING SEWD MUCH LIKE
ITS PREDECESSOR EARLIER TODAY...AND EXPECT NOTHING MORE THAN MID AND
HIGH LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDS WITH LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES...MAINLY OVER THE
FAR WRN CWA THROUGH SUNRISE.

TODAY/TONIGHT...MID/UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY
WILL MOVE EWD TO THE TN VALLEY WHILST OPENING UP INTO A TROUGH.
SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY OVER NWRN GOMEX WILL SLIDE EWD OVER THE NERN
GOMEX BY THIS EVENING...THEN TURN ENE INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WED MORNING. SFC FRONT WILL REMAIN QSTNRY MOST OF
THE DAY AND EVENING BEFORE LIFTING INTO NORTH FL LATE TONIGHT. AS
THE MID LEVEL SYSTEM PUSHES EWD...H25 JET FORCED ASCENT WILL SPREAD
EWD ACROSS THE ERN GOMEX AND FL...CAUSING THE SFC LOW TO THE NW TO
DEEPEN. MEAN LAYER MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FURTHER WITH PWAT VALUES
REACHING 1.75-2.0". EXPECT WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS
TO DEVELOP THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH EMBEDDED CONVECTION LIMITED
IN COVERAGE OWING TO WIDESPREAD CLOUDS INHIBITING SIGNIFICANT DIURNAL
SFC HEATING. BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL LIKELY BE FROM LAKE OKEE
SWD ACROSS SOUTH FL. HIGH RAIN CHCS CONTINUE WELL INTO THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT...THOUGH HIGHEST QPF WILL LIKELY BE FARTHER W AND
NW...CLOSER TO APPROACHING SFC LOW. RAN WITH 70-80 POPS TODAY AND 60
TONIGHT WITH ISOLD COVERAGE OF STORMS. A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE
PER SPC `MRGL` SVR RISK...BUT DO NOT EXPECT REPEAT OF BIG HAIL AND
WIND EVENT NEAR LAKE OKEE LATE MON AFTN/EARLY EVE. MAXES IN THE U70S
TO L80S...WITH A FEW M80S DOWN NEAR THE LAKE. MINS IN THE U60S NORTH
/CTRL TO L70S SE.

WED-WED NIGHT...EARLY IN THE PERIOD ECFL WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR
WITH THE WARM FRONT LOCATED ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA...SURFACE LOW
LOCATED NEAR THE GA/AL/FL BORDERS AND A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE
LOW ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF. STILL EXPECTING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ON
THIS DAY. UNSEASONABLY DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE AREA
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE
STRONGER SOUTH OF KMCO WHERE SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 MPH
WITH 15-20 MPH POSSIBLE ALONG THE SPACE/TREASURE COASTS.
INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH MODELS SHOW 500 MB TEMPERATURES WARMING ACROSS
ECFL THROUGH THE DAY WHICH COULD LIMIT OVERALL DESTABILIZATION.

NONETHELESS...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY HIGH AT
60 TO 70 PERCENT...HIGHEST ACROSS THE SOUTH. EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MID-LEVEL IMPULSES
WILL AID IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS WELL AS TO PUSH THE BOUNDARY
INTO THE CENTRAL PENINSULA BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND OUT INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT. MAIN THREATS FROM
STORMS WILL BE TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...HAIL AND
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS. THE LATEST STORM PREDICTION CENTER
OUTLOOK FOR DAY 2 KEEPS ECFL WITHIN MENTION OF MARGINALLY SEVERE
STORM CHANCES. JET STREAM ENERGY (250MB > 120KTS) WILL BE STRONGER
THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AS WELL.

TEMPERATURES ON TUE WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. LOWS
CONTINUE MILD AND MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S WITH SOME LOWER 70S
POSSIBLE.

THU-THU NIGHT...THE SURFACE LOW REMAINS FORECAST TO RACE UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD AS THE COLD FRONT PULLS FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST AWAY
FROM ECFL. RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND THE PRESENCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH MAY
ALLOW FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS THE AREA BUT EXPECT MOST PLACES
TO REMAIN DRY AS DRIER AIR DOES SLOWLY SLIDE DOWN THE PENINSULA.
LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY VEER
TO N/NNE BY EARLY EVENING. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S...EXCEPT SOME UPPER 50S
POSSIBLE INTO THE INTERIOR AND AWAY FROM LARGER METROPOLITAN AREAS.

FRI-MON...HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND EAST TO ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. DURING THIS PERIOD AND WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER INFLUENCE. FOR
NOW WILL KEEP THIS PERIOD DRY AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN BELOW
20 PERCENT. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING AN ISOLD SHRA DURING THIS
STRETCH WILL BE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OR PERHAPS OVER THE TREASURE
COAST LATE IN THE PERIOD. SLIGHTLY UNSEASONABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
(HIGHS/LOWS) FOR FRI-SAT WITH NEAR NORMAL CONDITIONS AGAIN FOR SUN-
MON.

&&

.AVIATION...AREAS MVFR CIGS/VSBY IN CLOUDS/PRECIP DEVELOPING AND
BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD AS THE AFTERNOON/EVENING PROGRESSES.
EMBEDDED TS WITH IFR VSBYS PSBL BUT COVERAGE/CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TEMPORAL FCST.

&&

.MARINE...LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW BECOME MODERATE OUT OF THE E-ESE LATE
TODAY/TONIGHT AT 15-20KT. SEAS 2-3FT EARLY THIS MORNING...STEADILY
INCREASING TO 2-4FT LATE TODAY AND 3-5FT TONIGHT.

WED-SAT...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS
NORTH FL WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
WED EVENING. SW WINDS BECOMING W/NW WED EVENING-THU...THEN NW/N THU
NIGHT-FRI. LOWER CONFIDENCE WITH WIND SPEEDS AT PRESENT DUE TO
OVERALL STRENGTH OF LOW/PLACEMENT/EXACT TRACK. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE
WITH SPEEDS 15-20 KTS WED/WED NIGHT OVER THE OPEN ATLC...POSSIBLY
INTO EARLY THU...BEFORE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLOWLY RELAXES INTO
FRI...THEN FALLING BACK TO AOB 10 KTS FOR SAT. LATER SHIFTS CAN
MONITOR FOR A SCA BUT SUSPECT IT WILL BE MARGINAL. SEAS NEAR SHORE
GENERALLY IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE OVER THIS PERIOD WITH OCCASIONAL 6 FT
AND PERHAPS 7 FT SEAS WELL OFFSHORE AT TIMES FOR WED-FRI.

HIGH COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUES ON WED/EARLY WED EVENING
WITH A FAST OFFSHORE MOVING COMPONENT OF 30 TO 40 KTS. WINDS/SEAS
LOCALLY HIGHER INVOF OF SHOWERS/STORMS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  78  69  83  64 /  70  60  60  20
MCO  81  68  86  66 /  80  60  60  20
MLB  78  71  86  67 /  70  60  60  20
VRB  81  71  86  70 /  70  60  60  20
LEE  80  68  84  64 /  80  60  60  20
SFB  80  67  85  66 /  80  60  60  20
ORL  81  68  86  67 /  80  60  60  20
FPR  82  73  86  70 /  70  60  60  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...CRISTALDI
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...SEDLOCK





000
FXUS62 KMLB 280822
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
415 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT...LOCAL 07Z METARS PLACE THE QSTNRY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ROUGHLY
NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF A LINE FROM TAMPA TO VERO BEACH...SOUTH OF THE
WPC ANALYZED POSN. LATEST IN A SERIES OF GOMEX MCS CENTERED SOUTH OF
MOB-PNS WITH LARGE AREA OF DEBRIS RAIN EXTENDING EWD ACROSS THE NERN
GOMEX AND ONSHORE THE FL NATURE COAST (WEST COAST NORTH OF GREATER
TAMPA). THE MAIN COLD TOPPED CONVECTION IS DROPPING SEWD MUCH LIKE
ITS PREDECESSOR EARLIER TODAY...AND EXPECT NOTHING MORE THAN MID AND
HIGH LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDS WITH LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES...MAINLY OVER THE
FAR WRN CWA THROUGH SUNRISE.

TODAY/TONIGHT...MID/UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY
WILL MOVE EWD TO THE TN VALLEY WHILST OPENING UP INTO A TROUGH.
SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY OVER NWRN GOMEX WILL SLIDE EWD OVER THE NERN
GOMEX BY THIS EVENING...THEN TURN ENE INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WED MORNING. SFC FRONT WILL REMAIN QSTNRY MOST OF
THE DAY AND EVENING BEFORE LIFTING INTO NORTH FL LATE TONIGHT. AS
THE MID LEVEL SYSTEM PUSHES EWD...H25 JET FORCED ASCENT WILL SPREAD
EWD ACROSS THE ERN GOMEX AND FL...CAUSING THE SFC LOW TO THE NW TO
DEEPEN. MEAN LAYER MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FURTHER WITH PWAT VALUES
REACHING 1.75-2.0". EXPECT WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS
TO DEVELOP THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH EMBEDDED CONVECTION LIMITED
IN COVERAGE OWING TO WIDESPREAD CLOUDS INHIBITING SIGNIFICANT DIURNAL
SFC HEATING. BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL LIKELY BE FROM LAKE OKEE
SWD ACROSS SOUTH FL. HIGH RAIN CHCS CONTINUE WELL INTO THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT...THOUGH HIGHEST QPF WILL LIKELY BE FARTHER W AND
NW...CLOSER TO APPROACHING SFC LOW. RAN WITH 70-80 POPS TODAY AND 60
TONIGHT WITH ISOLD COVERAGE OF STORMS. A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE
PER SPC `MRGL` SVR RISK...BUT DO NOT EXPECT REPEAT OF BIG HAIL AND
WIND EVENT NEAR LAKE OKEE LATE MON AFTN/EARLY EVE. MAXES IN THE U70S
TO L80S...WITH A FEW M80S DOWN NEAR THE LAKE. MINS IN THE U60S NORTH
/CTRL TO L70S SE.

WED-WED NIGHT...EARLY IN THE PERIOD ECFL WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR
WITH THE WARM FRONT LOCATED ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA...SURFACE LOW
LOCATED NEAR THE GA/AL/FL BORDERS AND A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE
LOW ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF. STILL EXPECTING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ON
THIS DAY. UNSEASONABLY DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE AREA
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE
STRONGER SOUTH OF KMCO WHERE SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 MPH
WITH 15-20 MPH POSSIBLE ALONG THE SPACE/TREASURE COASTS.
INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH MODELS SHOW 500 MB TEMPERATURES WARMING ACROSS
ECFL THROUGH THE DAY WHICH COULD LIMIT OVERALL DESTABILIZATION.

NONETHELESS...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY HIGH AT
60 TO 70 PERCENT...HIGHEST ACROSS THE SOUTH. EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MID-LEVEL IMPULSES
WILL AID IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS WELL AS TO PUSH THE BOUNDARY
INTO THE CENTRAL PENINSULA BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND OUT INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT. MAIN THREATS FROM
STORMS WILL BE TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...HAIL AND
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS. THE LATEST STORM PREDICTION CENTER
OUTLOOK FOR DAY 2 KEEPS ECFL WITHIN MENTION OF MARGINALLY SEVERE
STORM CHANCES. JET STREAM ENERGY (250MB > 120KTS) WILL BE STRONGER
THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AS WELL.

TEMPERATURES ON TUE WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. LOWS
CONTINUE MILD AND MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S WITH SOME LOWER 70S
POSSIBLE.

THU-THU NIGHT...THE SURFACE LOW REMAINS FORECAST TO RACE UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD AS THE COLD FRONT PULLS FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST AWAY
FROM ECFL. RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND THE PRESENCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH MAY
ALLOW FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS THE AREA BUT EXPECT MOST PLACES
TO REMAIN DRY AS DRIER AIR DOES SLOWLY SLIDE DOWN THE PENINSULA.
LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY VEER
TO N/NNE BY EARLY EVENING. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S...EXCEPT SOME UPPER 50S
POSSIBLE INTO THE INTERIOR AND AWAY FROM LARGER METROPOLITAN AREAS.

FRI-MON...HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND EAST TO ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. DURING THIS PERIOD AND WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER INFLUENCE. FOR
NOW WILL KEEP THIS PERIOD DRY AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN BELOW
20 PERCENT. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING AN ISOLD SHRA DURING THIS
STRETCH WILL BE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OR PERHAPS OVER THE TREASURE
COAST LATE IN THE PERIOD. SLIGHTLY UNSEASONABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
(HIGHS/LOWS) FOR FRI-SAT WITH NEAR NORMAL CONDITIONS AGAIN FOR SUN-
MON.

&&

.AVIATION...AREAS MVFR CIGS/VSBY IN CLOUDS/PRECIP DEVELOPING AND
BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD AS THE AFTERNOON/EVENING PROGRESSES.
EMBEDDED TS WITH IFR VSBYS PSBL BUT COVERAGE/CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TEMPORAL FCST.

&&

.MARINE...LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW BECOME MODERATE OUT OF THE E-ESE LATE
TODAY/TONIGHT AT 15-20KT. SEAS 2-3FT EARLY THIS MORNING...STEADILY
INCREASING TO 2-4FT LATE TODAY AND 3-5FT TONIGHT.

WED-SAT...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS
NORTH FL WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
WED EVENING. SW WINDS BECOMING W/NW WED EVENING-THU...THEN NW/N THU
NIGHT-FRI. LOWER CONFIDENCE WITH WIND SPEEDS AT PRESENT DUE TO
OVERALL STRENGTH OF LOW/PLACEMENT/EXACT TRACK. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE
WITH SPEEDS 15-20 KTS WED/WED NIGHT OVER THE OPEN ATLC...POSSIBLY
INTO EARLY THU...BEFORE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLOWLY RELAXES INTO
FRI...THEN FALLING BACK TO AOB 10 KTS FOR SAT. LATER SHIFTS CAN
MONITOR FOR A SCA BUT SUSPECT IT WILL BE MARGINAL. SEAS NEAR SHORE
GENERALLY IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE OVER THIS PERIOD WITH OCCASIONAL 6 FT
AND PERHAPS 7 FT SEAS WELL OFFSHORE AT TIMES FOR WED-FRI.

HIGH COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUES ON WED/EARLY WED EVENING
WITH A FAST OFFSHORE MOVING COMPONENT OF 30 TO 40 KTS. WINDS/SEAS
LOCALLY HIGHER INVOF OF SHOWERS/STORMS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  78  69  83  64 /  70  60  60  20
MCO  81  68  86  66 /  80  60  60  20
MLB  78  71  86  67 /  70  60  60  20
VRB  81  71  86  70 /  70  60  60  20
LEE  80  68  84  64 /  80  60  60  20
SFB  80  67  85  66 /  80  60  60  20
ORL  81  68  86  67 /  80  60  60  20
FPR  82  73  86  70 /  70  60  60  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...CRISTALDI
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...SEDLOCK




000
FXUS62 KMLB 280136
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
936 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
...HIGH RAIN CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
...LOCALLY STRONG STORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...

TONIGHT-TUE...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DROP SOUTH OVER THE
ATLANTIC WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING TO THE NORTH SWINGING WINDS
AROUND TO EASTERLY BY MORNING.  CUT OFF LOW OVER TEXAS WILL MOVE
EASTWARD AND THE ASSOCIATED BROAD SURFACE LOW IN THE WESTERN GULF
WILL SHIFT INTO THE CENTRAL/EAST GULF THROUGH LATE TUE.

THE MAIN ITEM IN THE SHORT TERM IS AN MCS OVER THE EASTERN GULF
WHICH HAS BEEN PROPAGATING SOUTHEAST AND WEAKENING. THE HIGH
RESOLUTION RAPID REFRESH MODEL SHOWS THIS CONTINUING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT.  EXPECT AN AREA OF DEBRIS RAIN TO AFFECT MAINLY THE NORTH
HALF OF THE AREA. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD ALSO BRING WEAK LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE...SO WE COULD ALSO SEE SHOWERS POPPING UP. LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD INHIBIT DEEP CONVECTION THOUGH. HAVE GONE
WITH 50 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES IN THE NORTH...TAPERING DOWN TO 30
PERCENT IN THE SOUTH.

ON TUE...THE NEXT MCS IS SHOWN IN THE NORTHEAST GULF BY SUNRISE...SO
EXPECT PLENTY OF CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE AREA TO START OUT THE DAY.
THIS CONVECTION WILL BE ALONG/JUST NORTH OF NORTHWARD RETREATING
WARM FRONT...SO EXPECT THAT SOME STORMS WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO HOLD
TOGETHER SOMEWHAT AND SPREAD INLAND ACROSS OUR NORTHERN HALF IN THE
MORNING HOURS.  THIS IS DEPICTED BY THE HRRR MODEL...BUT THE 18Z GFS
SHOWS THE MCS AND HEAVIER PRECIP AMOUNTS ARRIVING IN THE AFTERNOON.
THE TIMING WILL BE KEY TO WHETHER THE ATMOSPHERE CAN RECOVER AND
BRING A CHANCE OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

IN ANY EVENT...RAIN CHANCES WILL BE HIGH TUE WITH THE CLOUDS/PRECIP
HOLDING DOWN MAX TEMPS AGAIN IN THE NORTH AND ACROSS THE REST OF THE
AREA TOO.

&&

.AVIATION... SOME MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY
KISM-KMCO-KTIX NORTHWARD DUE TO WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTLING INTO
THE REGION.  THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME LIGHT RAIN AT TIMES IN THESE
LOCATIONS FROM DECAYING CONVECTION IN EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
LATEST HRRR MODEL SUGGESTS THAT HEAVIER PRECIP MAY START TO SPREAD
ACROSS THAT AREA TOWARDS SUNRISE IN ASSOCIATION WITH NEXT CLUSTER OF
CONVECTION MOVING INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF.  OTHERWISE...MOSTLY VFR
OVERNIGHT EXCEPT FOR A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS OCCURRING.

ON TUE...HIGH RAIN CHANCES ARE INDICATED AREAWIDE WITH OCCASIONAL
MVFR AND LOCAL IFR IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT-TUE...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTLING SOUTH OVER THE ATLANTIC
WILL CAUSE WINDS TO SHIFT TO NORTHERLY AND THEN VEER QUICKLY TO EAST
ON TUE.  SPEEDS LOOK MAY BE 10-15 KNOTS FOR A TIME TONIGHT THEN
DECREASE TO 5-10 KNOTS AS THE BOUNDARY WEAKENS OVER THE WATERS.
HOWEVER...WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES TO THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF.  SPEEDS ARE FORECAST 15-20 KNOTS
LATE IN THE DAY.  ALSO EXPECT A HIGH CHANCE FOR RAINFALL AND A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

FORECASTS...LASCODY
IMPACT WX...VOLKMER




000
FXUS62 KMLB 280136
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
936 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
...HIGH RAIN CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
...LOCALLY STRONG STORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...

TONIGHT-TUE...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DROP SOUTH OVER THE
ATLANTIC WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING TO THE NORTH SWINGING WINDS
AROUND TO EASTERLY BY MORNING.  CUT OFF LOW OVER TEXAS WILL MOVE
EASTWARD AND THE ASSOCIATED BROAD SURFACE LOW IN THE WESTERN GULF
WILL SHIFT INTO THE CENTRAL/EAST GULF THROUGH LATE TUE.

THE MAIN ITEM IN THE SHORT TERM IS AN MCS OVER THE EASTERN GULF
WHICH HAS BEEN PROPAGATING SOUTHEAST AND WEAKENING. THE HIGH
RESOLUTION RAPID REFRESH MODEL SHOWS THIS CONTINUING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT.  EXPECT AN AREA OF DEBRIS RAIN TO AFFECT MAINLY THE NORTH
HALF OF THE AREA. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD ALSO BRING WEAK LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE...SO WE COULD ALSO SEE SHOWERS POPPING UP. LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD INHIBIT DEEP CONVECTION THOUGH. HAVE GONE
WITH 50 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES IN THE NORTH...TAPERING DOWN TO 30
PERCENT IN THE SOUTH.

ON TUE...THE NEXT MCS IS SHOWN IN THE NORTHEAST GULF BY SUNRISE...SO
EXPECT PLENTY OF CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE AREA TO START OUT THE DAY.
THIS CONVECTION WILL BE ALONG/JUST NORTH OF NORTHWARD RETREATING
WARM FRONT...SO EXPECT THAT SOME STORMS WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO HOLD
TOGETHER SOMEWHAT AND SPREAD INLAND ACROSS OUR NORTHERN HALF IN THE
MORNING HOURS.  THIS IS DEPICTED BY THE HRRR MODEL...BUT THE 18Z GFS
SHOWS THE MCS AND HEAVIER PRECIP AMOUNTS ARRIVING IN THE AFTERNOON.
THE TIMING WILL BE KEY TO WHETHER THE ATMOSPHERE CAN RECOVER AND
BRING A CHANCE OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

IN ANY EVENT...RAIN CHANCES WILL BE HIGH TUE WITH THE CLOUDS/PRECIP
HOLDING DOWN MAX TEMPS AGAIN IN THE NORTH AND ACROSS THE REST OF THE
AREA TOO.

&&

.AVIATION... SOME MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY
KISM-KMCO-KTIX NORTHWARD DUE TO WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTLING INTO
THE REGION.  THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME LIGHT RAIN AT TIMES IN THESE
LOCATIONS FROM DECAYING CONVECTION IN EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
LATEST HRRR MODEL SUGGESTS THAT HEAVIER PRECIP MAY START TO SPREAD
ACROSS THAT AREA TOWARDS SUNRISE IN ASSOCIATION WITH NEXT CLUSTER OF
CONVECTION MOVING INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF.  OTHERWISE...MOSTLY VFR
OVERNIGHT EXCEPT FOR A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS OCCURRING.

ON TUE...HIGH RAIN CHANCES ARE INDICATED AREAWIDE WITH OCCASIONAL
MVFR AND LOCAL IFR IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT-TUE...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTLING SOUTH OVER THE ATLANTIC
WILL CAUSE WINDS TO SHIFT TO NORTHERLY AND THEN VEER QUICKLY TO EAST
ON TUE.  SPEEDS LOOK MAY BE 10-15 KNOTS FOR A TIME TONIGHT THEN
DECREASE TO 5-10 KNOTS AS THE BOUNDARY WEAKENS OVER THE WATERS.
HOWEVER...WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES TO THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF.  SPEEDS ARE FORECAST 15-20 KNOTS
LATE IN THE DAY.  ALSO EXPECT A HIGH CHANCE FOR RAINFALL AND A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

FORECASTS...LASCODY
IMPACT WX...VOLKMER





000
FXUS62 KMLB 271944
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
343 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
...HIGH RAIN CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
...LOCALLY STRONG STORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...

TONIGHT...FLAT 500MB FLOW PERSISTS OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND
FLORIDA. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY/TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO SLOWLY PUSH DOWN THE PENINSULA AND BECOME A WARM FRONT
LATE OVERNIGHT AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF A
DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.
INCREASINGLY MOIST FLOW WILL MAKE FOR ANOTHER WARM NIGHT. WILL
LOOK AT GOING A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE GUIDANCE OVERNIGHT LOWS BASED
ON WARM DAY...EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND WINDS SHIFTING TO THE EAST
AND SOUTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.

TUESDAY...CURRENT POP OF 70 PERCENT LOOKS REAL GOOD. DEVELOPING LOW
IN THE GULF OF MEXICO SOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA TRACKS
EAST. WARM FRONT FORECAST TO STRETCH ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA.
INCREASING MOISTURE AND IMPULSES OF ENERGY AT THE 500MB/18000 FOOT
LEVEL HELP TO KEEP RAIN POSSIBILITY HIGH.  GFS NOT VERY CLEAR ABOUT
WHERE IT WANTS TO PLACE THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE 250MB JET
HOWEVER...AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT NO MATTER HOW WEAK IT MAY BE COULD
BE ENOUGH TO ENHANCE THE DYNAMICS IN THE MID LEVELS. MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES START OUT AROUND -10C AT THE BEGINNING OF THE DAY BUT
WARM TO AROUND -8C BY THE END OF THE DAY. LOSS OF THE MID LEVEL
THERMAL INSTABILITY WOULD TEND TO SUGGEST MORE RAIN/SHOWERS THAN
STORMS. CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S AND LOW 80S REASONABLE.

TUE NIGHT-WED...(MODIFIED PREV DISC) THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER
THE SOUTH-CENTRAL FL PENINSULA WILL LIFT NORTHWARD TUE NIGHT. A
SURFACE LOW NEAR THE LOUISIANA COAST WILL TRACK EASTWARD AND
ACROSS NORTH FL TUE OVERNIGHT/EARLY WED. UNSEASONABLY MOIST DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE WILL ENCOMPASS THE REGION AS PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES APPROACH 1.80-2.00 INCHES. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT TUE INTO WED MORNING...THEN GUSTY SWRLY LATE
WED MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE FORECAST WITH A FEW STRONG
STORMS POSSIBLE DURING THIS STRETCH. ECFL WITHIN MENTION OF
MARGINALLY SEVERE CHCS ON THE CURRENT SPC OUTLOOK. CELLS WILL BE
PARTICULARLY FAST MOVING OUT OF THE WSW ON WED. JET STREAM ENERGY
WILL BE STRONGER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ALLOWING FOR
ADDITIONAL DIFFLUENCE ALOFT.

THU-THU NIGHT...THE SURFACE LOW WILL RACE UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD AS
THE COLD FRONT PULLS AWAY FROM THE EASTERN FL PENINSULA AND DEEPER
INTO THE WESTERN ATLC. WEST TO NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL RESULT.
MUCH DRIER AIR WILL FILTER DOWN THE PENINSULA BEHIND THIS LATEST
SYSTEM AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. SOME RESIDUAL
MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR A SHOWER OR AN ISOLD AFTN THUNDERSTORM TO
DEVELOP SOUTH OF ORLANDO ON THIS DAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S...EXCEPT A
FEW UPPER 50S POSSIBLE NORTH OF I-4.

FRI-SUN...HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND EAST TO ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. DURING THIS PERIOD AND WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER INFLUENCE. FOR
NOW WILL KEEP THIS PERIOD DRY AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN BELOW
20 PERCENT. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING AN ISOLD SHRA DURING THIS
STRETCH WILL BE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OR PERHAPS OVER THE TREASURE
COAST LATE IN THE PERIOD. UNSEASONABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES (HIGHS/
LOWS) FOR FRI-SAT WITH NEAR NORMAL CONDITIONS AGAIN FOR SUN-MON.

&&

.AVIATION...
TEMPO MVFR IN/NEAR FAST MOVING WEST TO EAST RAIN. 15 TO
20 KNOT WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO AROUND 10
KNOTS OR LESS OUT OF THE NORTH DURING THE EVENING. WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN TOO STRONG FOR FOG. NORTH TO SOUTH MOVING LOW CLOUDS LAST
COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE THROUGH MID MORNING A POSSIBILITY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...WINDS SHIFT FROM THE WEST TO THE NORTH OVERNIGHT AS A
FRONT/TROUGH WORKS ITS WAY DOWN THE COASTAL WATERS AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST U.S. SEAS 3 TO 4 FEET
UP TO 5 FEET IN THE GULF STREAM.

TUE...WINDS BECOME SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT
DEVELOPS TO THE SOUTH AND WORKS ITS WAY NORTH. THE WIND NEAR 20 KNOTS
BY THE END OF THE AFTERNOON AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE NORTHWARD
MOVING WARM FRONT AND THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND
WESTERN ATLANTIC. SEAS 4 TO 5 FEET OFFSHORE AND 3 TO 4 FEET NEARSHORE.

WED-FRI...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS NORTH FL WITH TRAILING
COLD FRONT PUSHING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WED EVENING. SW WINDS
BECOMING WRLY WED EVENING-THU...THEN NWRLY THU NIGHT-FRI. WIND
SPEEDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KTS DURING THE DAY ON WED...THEN 20-25
KTS WED EVENING-EARLY THU. WIND SPEEDS WILL SLOWLY DECLINE THU AFTN
THRU FRI. HIGH COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUES ON WED WITH A
FAST OFFSHORE MOVING COMPONENT. SEAS BUILDING TO 3-5 FT OVER THE
OPEN ATLC ON WED WITH SOME 6 FT SEAS WELL OFFSHORE WED
NIGHT/THU...THEN BACK DOWN TO 3-5 FT THU NIGHT AND 3-4 FT ON FRI.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  68  79  69  87 /  40  70  60  60
MCO  68  82  68  87 /  30  70  70  60
MLB  69  80  70  88 /  30  70  70  60
VRB  69  83  69  88 /  40  70  70  60
LEE  69  77  68  84 /  40  70  60  60
SFB  68  80  69  86 /  40  70  70  60
ORL  68  81  68  86 /  30  70  70  60
FPR  69  84  71  88 /  40  70  70  60

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WIMMER
LONG TERM....PENDERGRAST




000
FXUS62 KMLB 271944
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
343 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
...HIGH RAIN CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
...LOCALLY STRONG STORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...

TONIGHT...FLAT 500MB FLOW PERSISTS OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND
FLORIDA. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY/TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO SLOWLY PUSH DOWN THE PENINSULA AND BECOME A WARM FRONT
LATE OVERNIGHT AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF A
DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.
INCREASINGLY MOIST FLOW WILL MAKE FOR ANOTHER WARM NIGHT. WILL
LOOK AT GOING A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE GUIDANCE OVERNIGHT LOWS BASED
ON WARM DAY...EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND WINDS SHIFTING TO THE EAST
AND SOUTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.

TUESDAY...CURRENT POP OF 70 PERCENT LOOKS REAL GOOD. DEVELOPING LOW
IN THE GULF OF MEXICO SOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA TRACKS
EAST. WARM FRONT FORECAST TO STRETCH ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA.
INCREASING MOISTURE AND IMPULSES OF ENERGY AT THE 500MB/18000 FOOT
LEVEL HELP TO KEEP RAIN POSSIBILITY HIGH.  GFS NOT VERY CLEAR ABOUT
WHERE IT WANTS TO PLACE THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE 250MB JET
HOWEVER...AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT NO MATTER HOW WEAK IT MAY BE COULD
BE ENOUGH TO ENHANCE THE DYNAMICS IN THE MID LEVELS. MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES START OUT AROUND -10C AT THE BEGINNING OF THE DAY BUT
WARM TO AROUND -8C BY THE END OF THE DAY. LOSS OF THE MID LEVEL
THERMAL INSTABILITY WOULD TEND TO SUGGEST MORE RAIN/SHOWERS THAN
STORMS. CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S AND LOW 80S REASONABLE.

TUE NIGHT-WED...(MODIFIED PREV DISC) THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER
THE SOUTH-CENTRAL FL PENINSULA WILL LIFT NORTHWARD TUE NIGHT. A
SURFACE LOW NEAR THE LOUISIANA COAST WILL TRACK EASTWARD AND
ACROSS NORTH FL TUE OVERNIGHT/EARLY WED. UNSEASONABLY MOIST DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE WILL ENCOMPASS THE REGION AS PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES APPROACH 1.80-2.00 INCHES. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT TUE INTO WED MORNING...THEN GUSTY SWRLY LATE
WED MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE FORECAST WITH A FEW STRONG
STORMS POSSIBLE DURING THIS STRETCH. ECFL WITHIN MENTION OF
MARGINALLY SEVERE CHCS ON THE CURRENT SPC OUTLOOK. CELLS WILL BE
PARTICULARLY FAST MOVING OUT OF THE WSW ON WED. JET STREAM ENERGY
WILL BE STRONGER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ALLOWING FOR
ADDITIONAL DIFFLUENCE ALOFT.

THU-THU NIGHT...THE SURFACE LOW WILL RACE UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD AS
THE COLD FRONT PULLS AWAY FROM THE EASTERN FL PENINSULA AND DEEPER
INTO THE WESTERN ATLC. WEST TO NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL RESULT.
MUCH DRIER AIR WILL FILTER DOWN THE PENINSULA BEHIND THIS LATEST
SYSTEM AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. SOME RESIDUAL
MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR A SHOWER OR AN ISOLD AFTN THUNDERSTORM TO
DEVELOP SOUTH OF ORLANDO ON THIS DAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S...EXCEPT A
FEW UPPER 50S POSSIBLE NORTH OF I-4.

FRI-SUN...HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND EAST TO ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. DURING THIS PERIOD AND WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER INFLUENCE. FOR
NOW WILL KEEP THIS PERIOD DRY AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN BELOW
20 PERCENT. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING AN ISOLD SHRA DURING THIS
STRETCH WILL BE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OR PERHAPS OVER THE TREASURE
COAST LATE IN THE PERIOD. UNSEASONABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES (HIGHS/
LOWS) FOR FRI-SAT WITH NEAR NORMAL CONDITIONS AGAIN FOR SUN-MON.

&&

.AVIATION...
TEMPO MVFR IN/NEAR FAST MOVING WEST TO EAST RAIN. 15 TO
20 KNOT WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO AROUND 10
KNOTS OR LESS OUT OF THE NORTH DURING THE EVENING. WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN TOO STRONG FOR FOG. NORTH TO SOUTH MOVING LOW CLOUDS LAST
COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE THROUGH MID MORNING A POSSIBILITY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...WINDS SHIFT FROM THE WEST TO THE NORTH OVERNIGHT AS A
FRONT/TROUGH WORKS ITS WAY DOWN THE COASTAL WATERS AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST U.S. SEAS 3 TO 4 FEET
UP TO 5 FEET IN THE GULF STREAM.

TUE...WINDS BECOME SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT
DEVELOPS TO THE SOUTH AND WORKS ITS WAY NORTH. THE WIND NEAR 20 KNOTS
BY THE END OF THE AFTERNOON AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE NORTHWARD
MOVING WARM FRONT AND THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND
WESTERN ATLANTIC. SEAS 4 TO 5 FEET OFFSHORE AND 3 TO 4 FEET NEARSHORE.

WED-FRI...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS NORTH FL WITH TRAILING
COLD FRONT PUSHING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WED EVENING. SW WINDS
BECOMING WRLY WED EVENING-THU...THEN NWRLY THU NIGHT-FRI. WIND
SPEEDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KTS DURING THE DAY ON WED...THEN 20-25
KTS WED EVENING-EARLY THU. WIND SPEEDS WILL SLOWLY DECLINE THU AFTN
THRU FRI. HIGH COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUES ON WED WITH A
FAST OFFSHORE MOVING COMPONENT. SEAS BUILDING TO 3-5 FT OVER THE
OPEN ATLC ON WED WITH SOME 6 FT SEAS WELL OFFSHORE WED
NIGHT/THU...THEN BACK DOWN TO 3-5 FT THU NIGHT AND 3-4 FT ON FRI.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  68  79  69  87 /  40  70  60  60
MCO  68  82  68  87 /  30  70  70  60
MLB  69  80  70  88 /  30  70  70  60
VRB  69  83  69  88 /  40  70  70  60
LEE  69  77  68  84 /  40  70  60  60
SFB  68  80  69  86 /  40  70  70  60
ORL  68  81  68  86 /  30  70  70  60
FPR  69  84  71  88 /  40  70  70  60

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WIMMER
LONG TERM....PENDERGRAST





000
FXUS62 KMLB 271524
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1124 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED WINDS.

CURRENT-THIS AFTERNOON...FLAT 500MB FLOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND
FLORIDA CONTINUES FOR ANOTHER DAY. SURFACE FRONT STRETCHING WEST TO
EAST FROM EASTERN TEXAS ACROSS THE GULF COAST AND NORTH FLORIDA THEN
WELL EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC. SURFACE FRONT AND 500MB FLOW PARALLEL
WHICH MEANS THAT THE FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH TODAY. HIGHEST
RAIN CHANCES OVER THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA WHICH IS CLOSER TO THE
FRONT...HIGHER 500MB VORTICITY AND TO THE 250MB JET AXIS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES. CURRENT RAIN CHANCES OF 50 PERCENT NORTH TO 30
PERCENT IS GOOD. MORE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN
FORECAST AREA WHICH SHOULD EXPERIENCE MORE DAYTIME HEATING AND SEA
BREEZE POTENTIAL.

UPDATE WILL ADDRESS PRIMARILY WIND FIELDS.

.AVIATION...TEMPO MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY 18Z-24Z. MOST LIKELY
ADD VCTS KVRB SOUTH WHERE TSTM POTENTIAL HIGHER.

.MARINE...NOAA BUOYS 009 010 RECORDING WESTERLY WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS
AND 2 FEET AT 009 AND 5 FEET AT 010. THE TWO SCRIPPS BUOYS AT 4NM
AND 6NM OFF THE BEACHES WERE RECORDING 1 FOOT SEAS. BUOYS OBS
VALIDATE CURRENT/AFTERNOON FORECASTS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION


CURRENT...06Z SFC ANLYS PLACES SLOW MOVING E-W FRONTAL BDRY JUST
NORTH OF THE FL/AL-GA BORDERS. A QSTNRY E-W LINEAR CONVECTIVE BAND
HAS FORMED OVER THE PAST COUPLE HRS FROM ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTH OF
KMOB-KPNS EWD TO KCGC AND EXTENDING INLAND TO NRN LAKE CO. PRECIP
INTENSITY MUCH LESS OVER LAND THAN UPSTREAM OVER THE GOMEX. OTRW...
STEADY WSW TO SW FLOW KEEPING TEMPS ELEVATED...WITH JUST ABOUT ALL
REPORTING SITS STILL IN THE U70S.

TODAY-TONIGHT...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SAG SWD
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...THEN BECOME QSTNRY NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF
KLEE-KSFB-KXMR. NRN HALF CWA WILL REMAIN FOCUS FOR HIGHER PRECIP
CHCS GIVEN BETTER AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND FORCED ASCENT ALONG SRN
PERIPHERY OF STRONG H25 JET WITH WEAK MID LEVEL VORT RIPPLES
EMBEDDED IN THE FAST FLOW ALOFT. GIVEN THE OVERLY AGGRESSIVE MOS
NUMBERS OF THE PAST FEW DAYS...HAVE CUT BACK ON POPS BY 10-20 PCT
(ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SRN CWA) TRENDING FROM 50 N/W TO 30 S/E FOR
TODAY/TONIGHT. CLOUDS/PRECIP WILL HOLD TEMPS DOWN QUITE A BIT FROM
SUNDAY`S MAX TEMPS OF 88-96F. LOOKING AT L-M80S NORTH AND U80S CTRL
AND SOUTH. MINS IN THE U60S-L70S WITH MUCH LIGHTER WINDS AS FRONT
SETTLES ACROSS THE NRN CWA.

TUE-WED...AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN FOR APRIL DURING THIS PERIOD
WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL FL PENINSULA EARLY IN THE PERIOD
WILL LIFT NORTHWARD TUE-TUE NIGHT. A SURFACE LOW NEAR THE LOUISIANA
COAST WILL TRACK EASTWARD AND ACROSS NORTH FL TUE OVERNIGHT/EARLY
WED. A COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTH/SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE LOW WILL
MOVE THROUGH EAST CENTRAL FL WED EVENING. UNSEASONABLY MOIST DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE WILL ENCOMPASS THE REGION AS PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES APPROACH 1.80-2.00 INCHES. LIGHT EAST SURFACE WINDS TUE
MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS BACK NORTH. LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT
TUE INTO WED MORNING...THEN GUSTY SWRLY LATE WED MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...FINALLY WRLY WED NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND
MOVES THRU THE AREA.

THE MID-LEVEL PATTERN WILL ALSO BE MESSY WITH NUMEROUS IMPULSES
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MAINLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL BE UNSEASONABLY HIGH WITH AT LEAST 70 PERCENT CHANCES FOR TUE
THRU WED. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE FORECAST WITH A FEW
STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE DURING THIS STRETCH. STAY TUNED TO FUTURE
WEATHER FORECASTS IN THE EVENT A FEW SEVERE STORMS DEVELOP DURING
THIS TIME. CELLS WILL BE PARTICULARLY FAST MOVING OUT OF THE WSW ON
WED. JET STREAM ENERGY WILL BE STRONGER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR ALLOWING FOR ADDITIONAL DIFFLUENCE ALOFT.

TEMPERATURES ON TUE WILL BE IN THE LOWER 80S WITH SOME PLACES
STRUGGLING TO AROUND 80 DEGREES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE VOLUSIA/SPACE
COASTS. WED HIGHS WILL AGAIN BE IN THE LOWER 80S. LOWS CONTINUE MILD
AND MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S WITH SOME LOWER 70S POSSIBLE AS WELL.

THU-THU NIGHT...THE SURFACE LOW WILL RACE UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD AS
THE COLD FRONT PULLS AWAY FROM THE EASTERN FL PENINSULA AND DEEPER
INTO THE WESTERN ATLC. WEST TO NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL RESULT.
MUCH DRIER AIR WILL FILTER DOWN THE PENINSULA BEHIND THIS LATEST
SYSTEM AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. SOME RESIDUAL
MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR A SHOWER OR AN ISOLD AFTN THUNDERSTORM TO
DEVELOP SOUTH OF ORLANDO ON THIS DAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S...EXCEPT A
FEW UPPER 50S POSSIBLE NORTH OF I-4.

FRI-SUN...HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND EAST TO ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. DURING THIS PERIOD AND WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER INFLUENCE. FOR
NOW WILL KEEP THIS PERIOD DRY AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN BELOW
20 PERCENT. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING AN ISOLD SHRA DURING THIS
STRETCH WILL BE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OR PERHAPS OVER THE TREASURE
COAST LATE IN THE PERIOD. UNSEASONABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES (HIGHS/
LOWS) FOR FRI-SAT WITH NEAR NORMAL CONDITIONS AGAIN FOR SUN-MON.

&&

.AVIATION...HIGH CLOUDS RENDERING LOW CLOUD PRODUCT USELESS...HOWEVER
STOUT W TO WSW FLOW COMING OFF THE GOMEX COUPLED WITH CURRENT METARS
OVER THE WRN PENINSULA ARGUE FOR MVFR CIGS BKN015 SPREADING EWD OVER
THE NRN AND CENTRAL AERODROMES THROUGH SUNRISE. SCT SHRA/TS ON TAP
FOR THIS AFTN....THOUGH PROBS AT 3-50...A BIT LOW TO GO WITH TEMPO
GROUPS THIS FAR OUT. MAY ADD SOME TO THE NRN AERODROMES FOR THE 12Z
PACKAGE AFTER EXAMINING RADAR TRENDS THE NEXT FEW HRS.

&&

.MARINE...

CURRENT THROUGH TONIGHT...MODERATE OFFSHORE BREEZE 10KT NEAR SHORE
AND AROUND 15KT WELL OFFSHORE IS KEEPING SEAS 1-2FT NEAR THE COAST
AND 2-3FT FARTHER OFFSHORE. HAVE UNDERCUT WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE BY
ABOUT A FOOT THROUGH TONIGHT...AS THESE CONDITIONS PERSIST AS N-NE
WINDS GRADUALLY OOZE INTO THE NRN WATERS TODAY AND LIGHT ONSHORE
WINDS BRIDGE THE FRONT BY LATE TONIGHT.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...E/ESE WINDS 10-15 KTS VEERING TO S/SSW IN THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT. SEAS 2-3 FT. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
LIGHTNING STORMS DEVELOPING ON THIS DAY/NIGHT AND VENTURING OFF OF
THE COAST AND ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. WINDS/SEAS LOCALLY HIGHER
INVOF SHOWERS/STORMS.

WED-FRI...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS NORTH FL WITH TRAILING
COLD FRONT PUSHING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WED EVENING. SW WINDS
BECOMING WRLY WED EVENING-THU...THEN NWRLY THU NIGHT-FRI. WIND
SPEEDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KTS DURING THE DAY ON WED...THEN 20-25
KTS WED EVENING-EARLY THU. WIND SPEEDS WILL SLOWLY DECLINE THU AFTN
THRU FRI. HIGH COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUES ON WED WITH A
FAST OFFSHORE MOVING COMPONENT. SEAS BUILDING TO 3-5 FT OVER THE
OPEN ATLC ON WED WITH SOME 6 FT SEAS WELL OFFSHORE WED
NIGHT/THU...THEN BACK DOWN TO 3-5 FT THU NIGHT AND 3-4 FT ON FRI.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  79  69  79  67 /  40  50  70  60
MCO  85  70  81  68 /  50  40  70  60
MLB  84  72  79  69 /  40  40  70  60
VRB  85  70  81  70 /  30  30  70  60
LEE  84  68  81  70 /  50  50  70  60
SFB  84  69  80  68 /  50  50  70  60
ORL  85  69  80  69 /  50  50  70  60
FPR  85  68  82  68 /  30  30  70  60

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...PENDERGRAST
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...WIMMER





000
FXUS62 KMLB 271524
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1124 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED WINDS.

CURRENT-THIS AFTERNOON...FLAT 500MB FLOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND
FLORIDA CONTINUES FOR ANOTHER DAY. SURFACE FRONT STRETCHING WEST TO
EAST FROM EASTERN TEXAS ACROSS THE GULF COAST AND NORTH FLORIDA THEN
WELL EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC. SURFACE FRONT AND 500MB FLOW PARALLEL
WHICH MEANS THAT THE FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH TODAY. HIGHEST
RAIN CHANCES OVER THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA WHICH IS CLOSER TO THE
FRONT...HIGHER 500MB VORTICITY AND TO THE 250MB JET AXIS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES. CURRENT RAIN CHANCES OF 50 PERCENT NORTH TO 30
PERCENT IS GOOD. MORE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN
FORECAST AREA WHICH SHOULD EXPERIENCE MORE DAYTIME HEATING AND SEA
BREEZE POTENTIAL.

UPDATE WILL ADDRESS PRIMARILY WIND FIELDS.

.AVIATION...TEMPO MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY 18Z-24Z. MOST LIKELY
ADD VCTS KVRB SOUTH WHERE TSTM POTENTIAL HIGHER.

.MARINE...NOAA BUOYS 009 010 RECORDING WESTERLY WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS
AND 2 FEET AT 009 AND 5 FEET AT 010. THE TWO SCRIPPS BUOYS AT 4NM
AND 6NM OFF THE BEACHES WERE RECORDING 1 FOOT SEAS. BUOYS OBS
VALIDATE CURRENT/AFTERNOON FORECASTS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION


CURRENT...06Z SFC ANLYS PLACES SLOW MOVING E-W FRONTAL BDRY JUST
NORTH OF THE FL/AL-GA BORDERS. A QSTNRY E-W LINEAR CONVECTIVE BAND
HAS FORMED OVER THE PAST COUPLE HRS FROM ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTH OF
KMOB-KPNS EWD TO KCGC AND EXTENDING INLAND TO NRN LAKE CO. PRECIP
INTENSITY MUCH LESS OVER LAND THAN UPSTREAM OVER THE GOMEX. OTRW...
STEADY WSW TO SW FLOW KEEPING TEMPS ELEVATED...WITH JUST ABOUT ALL
REPORTING SITS STILL IN THE U70S.

TODAY-TONIGHT...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SAG SWD
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...THEN BECOME QSTNRY NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF
KLEE-KSFB-KXMR. NRN HALF CWA WILL REMAIN FOCUS FOR HIGHER PRECIP
CHCS GIVEN BETTER AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND FORCED ASCENT ALONG SRN
PERIPHERY OF STRONG H25 JET WITH WEAK MID LEVEL VORT RIPPLES
EMBEDDED IN THE FAST FLOW ALOFT. GIVEN THE OVERLY AGGRESSIVE MOS
NUMBERS OF THE PAST FEW DAYS...HAVE CUT BACK ON POPS BY 10-20 PCT
(ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SRN CWA) TRENDING FROM 50 N/W TO 30 S/E FOR
TODAY/TONIGHT. CLOUDS/PRECIP WILL HOLD TEMPS DOWN QUITE A BIT FROM
SUNDAY`S MAX TEMPS OF 88-96F. LOOKING AT L-M80S NORTH AND U80S CTRL
AND SOUTH. MINS IN THE U60S-L70S WITH MUCH LIGHTER WINDS AS FRONT
SETTLES ACROSS THE NRN CWA.

TUE-WED...AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN FOR APRIL DURING THIS PERIOD
WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL FL PENINSULA EARLY IN THE PERIOD
WILL LIFT NORTHWARD TUE-TUE NIGHT. A SURFACE LOW NEAR THE LOUISIANA
COAST WILL TRACK EASTWARD AND ACROSS NORTH FL TUE OVERNIGHT/EARLY
WED. A COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTH/SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE LOW WILL
MOVE THROUGH EAST CENTRAL FL WED EVENING. UNSEASONABLY MOIST DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE WILL ENCOMPASS THE REGION AS PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES APPROACH 1.80-2.00 INCHES. LIGHT EAST SURFACE WINDS TUE
MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS BACK NORTH. LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT
TUE INTO WED MORNING...THEN GUSTY SWRLY LATE WED MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...FINALLY WRLY WED NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND
MOVES THRU THE AREA.

THE MID-LEVEL PATTERN WILL ALSO BE MESSY WITH NUMEROUS IMPULSES
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MAINLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL BE UNSEASONABLY HIGH WITH AT LEAST 70 PERCENT CHANCES FOR TUE
THRU WED. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE FORECAST WITH A FEW
STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE DURING THIS STRETCH. STAY TUNED TO FUTURE
WEATHER FORECASTS IN THE EVENT A FEW SEVERE STORMS DEVELOP DURING
THIS TIME. CELLS WILL BE PARTICULARLY FAST MOVING OUT OF THE WSW ON
WED. JET STREAM ENERGY WILL BE STRONGER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR ALLOWING FOR ADDITIONAL DIFFLUENCE ALOFT.

TEMPERATURES ON TUE WILL BE IN THE LOWER 80S WITH SOME PLACES
STRUGGLING TO AROUND 80 DEGREES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE VOLUSIA/SPACE
COASTS. WED HIGHS WILL AGAIN BE IN THE LOWER 80S. LOWS CONTINUE MILD
AND MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S WITH SOME LOWER 70S POSSIBLE AS WELL.

THU-THU NIGHT...THE SURFACE LOW WILL RACE UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD AS
THE COLD FRONT PULLS AWAY FROM THE EASTERN FL PENINSULA AND DEEPER
INTO THE WESTERN ATLC. WEST TO NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL RESULT.
MUCH DRIER AIR WILL FILTER DOWN THE PENINSULA BEHIND THIS LATEST
SYSTEM AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. SOME RESIDUAL
MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR A SHOWER OR AN ISOLD AFTN THUNDERSTORM TO
DEVELOP SOUTH OF ORLANDO ON THIS DAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S...EXCEPT A
FEW UPPER 50S POSSIBLE NORTH OF I-4.

FRI-SUN...HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND EAST TO ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. DURING THIS PERIOD AND WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER INFLUENCE. FOR
NOW WILL KEEP THIS PERIOD DRY AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN BELOW
20 PERCENT. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING AN ISOLD SHRA DURING THIS
STRETCH WILL BE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OR PERHAPS OVER THE TREASURE
COAST LATE IN THE PERIOD. UNSEASONABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES (HIGHS/
LOWS) FOR FRI-SAT WITH NEAR NORMAL CONDITIONS AGAIN FOR SUN-MON.

&&

.AVIATION...HIGH CLOUDS RENDERING LOW CLOUD PRODUCT USELESS...HOWEVER
STOUT W TO WSW FLOW COMING OFF THE GOMEX COUPLED WITH CURRENT METARS
OVER THE WRN PENINSULA ARGUE FOR MVFR CIGS BKN015 SPREADING EWD OVER
THE NRN AND CENTRAL AERODROMES THROUGH SUNRISE. SCT SHRA/TS ON TAP
FOR THIS AFTN....THOUGH PROBS AT 3-50...A BIT LOW TO GO WITH TEMPO
GROUPS THIS FAR OUT. MAY ADD SOME TO THE NRN AERODROMES FOR THE 12Z
PACKAGE AFTER EXAMINING RADAR TRENDS THE NEXT FEW HRS.

&&

.MARINE...

CURRENT THROUGH TONIGHT...MODERATE OFFSHORE BREEZE 10KT NEAR SHORE
AND AROUND 15KT WELL OFFSHORE IS KEEPING SEAS 1-2FT NEAR THE COAST
AND 2-3FT FARTHER OFFSHORE. HAVE UNDERCUT WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE BY
ABOUT A FOOT THROUGH TONIGHT...AS THESE CONDITIONS PERSIST AS N-NE
WINDS GRADUALLY OOZE INTO THE NRN WATERS TODAY AND LIGHT ONSHORE
WINDS BRIDGE THE FRONT BY LATE TONIGHT.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...E/ESE WINDS 10-15 KTS VEERING TO S/SSW IN THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT. SEAS 2-3 FT. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
LIGHTNING STORMS DEVELOPING ON THIS DAY/NIGHT AND VENTURING OFF OF
THE COAST AND ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. WINDS/SEAS LOCALLY HIGHER
INVOF SHOWERS/STORMS.

WED-FRI...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS NORTH FL WITH TRAILING
COLD FRONT PUSHING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WED EVENING. SW WINDS
BECOMING WRLY WED EVENING-THU...THEN NWRLY THU NIGHT-FRI. WIND
SPEEDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KTS DURING THE DAY ON WED...THEN 20-25
KTS WED EVENING-EARLY THU. WIND SPEEDS WILL SLOWLY DECLINE THU AFTN
THRU FRI. HIGH COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUES ON WED WITH A
FAST OFFSHORE MOVING COMPONENT. SEAS BUILDING TO 3-5 FT OVER THE
OPEN ATLC ON WED WITH SOME 6 FT SEAS WELL OFFSHORE WED
NIGHT/THU...THEN BACK DOWN TO 3-5 FT THU NIGHT AND 3-4 FT ON FRI.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  79  69  79  67 /  40  50  70  60
MCO  85  70  81  68 /  50  40  70  60
MLB  84  72  79  69 /  40  40  70  60
VRB  85  70  81  70 /  30  30  70  60
LEE  84  68  81  70 /  50  50  70  60
SFB  84  69  80  68 /  50  50  70  60
ORL  85  69  80  69 /  50  50  70  60
FPR  85  68  82  68 /  30  30  70  60

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...PENDERGRAST
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...WIMMER




000
FXUS62 KMLB 271320
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
920 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT-THIS AFTERNOON...FLAT 500MB FLOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND
FLORIDA CONTINUES FOR ANOTHER DAY. SURFACE FRONT STRETCHING WEST TO
EAST FROM EASTERN TEXAS ACROSS THE GULF COAST AND NORTH FLORIDA THEN
WELL EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC. SURFACE FRONT AND 500MB FLOW PARALLEL
WHICH MEANS THAT THE FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH TODAY. HIGHEST
RAIN CHANCES OVER THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA WHICH IS CLOSER TO THE
FRONT...HIGHER 500MB VORTICITY AND TO THE 250MB JET AXIS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES. CURRENT RAIN CHANCES OF 50 PERCENT NORTH TO 30
PERCENT IS GOOD. MORE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN
FORECAST AREA WHICH SHOULD EXPERIENCE MORE DAYTIME HEATING AND SEA
BREEZE POTENTIAL.

UPDATE WILL ADDRESS PRIMARILY WIND FIELDS.

.AVIATION...TEMPO MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY 18Z-24Z. MOST LIKELY
ADD VCTS KVRB SOUTH WHERE TSTM POTENTIAL HIGHER.

.MARINE...NOAA BUOYS 009 010 RECORDING WESTERLY WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS
AND 2 FEET AT 009 AND 5 FEET AT 010. THE TWO SCRIPPS BUOYS AT 4NM
AND 6NM OFF THE BEACHES WERE RECORDING 1 FOOT SEAS. BUOYS OBS
VALIDATE CURRENT/AFTERNOON FORECASTS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION


CURRENT...06Z SFC ANLYS PLACES SLOW MOVING E-W FRONTAL BDRY JUST
NORTH OF THE FL/AL-GA BORDERS. A QSTNRY E-W LINEAR CONVECTIVE BAND
HAS FORMED OVER THE PAST COUPLE HRS FROM ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTH OF
KMOB-KPNS EWD TO KCGC AND EXTENDING INLAND TO NRN LAKE CO. PRECIP
INTENSITY MUCH LESS OVER LAND THAN UPSTREAM OVER THE GOMEX. OTRW...
STEADY WSW TO SW FLOW KEEPING TEMPS ELEVATED...WITH JUST ABOUT ALL
REPORTING SITS STILL IN THE U70S.

TODAY-TONIGHT...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SAG SWD
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...THEN BECOME QSTNRY NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF
KLEE-KSFB-KXMR. NRN HALF CWA WILL REMAIN FOCUS FOR HIGHER PRECIP
CHCS GIVEN BETTER AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND FORCED ASCENT ALONG SRN
PERIPHERY OF STRONG H25 JET WITH WEAK MID LEVEL VORT RIPPLES
EMBEDDED IN THE FAST FLOW ALOFT. GIVEN THE OVERLY AGGRESSIVE MOS
NUMBERS OF THE PAST FEW DAYS...HAVE CUT BACK ON POPS BY 10-20 PCT
(ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SRN CWA) TRENDING FROM 50 N/W TO 30 S/E FOR
TODAY/TONIGHT. CLOUDS/PRECIP WILL HOLD TEMPS DOWN QUITE A BIT FROM
SUNDAY`S MAX TEMPS OF 88-96F. LOOKING AT L-M80S NORTH AND U80S CTRL
AND SOUTH. MINS IN THE U60S-L70S WITH MUCH LIGHTER WINDS AS FRONT
SETTLES ACROSS THE NRN CWA.

TUE-WED...AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN FOR APRIL DURING THIS PERIOD
WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL FL PENINSULA EARLY IN THE PERIOD
WILL LIFT NORTHWARD TUE-TUE NIGHT. A SURFACE LOW NEAR THE LOUISIANA
COAST WILL TRACK EASTWARD AND ACROSS NORTH FL TUE OVERNIGHT/EARLY
WED. A COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTH/SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE LOW WILL
MOVE THROUGH EAST CENTRAL FL WED EVENING. UNSEASONABLY MOIST DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE WILL ENCOMPASS THE REGION AS PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES APPROACH 1.80-2.00 INCHES. LIGHT EAST SURFACE WINDS TUE
MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS BACK NORTH. LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT
TUE INTO WED MORNING...THEN GUSTY SWRLY LATE WED MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...FINALLY WRLY WED NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND
MOVES THRU THE AREA.

THE MID-LEVEL PATTERN WILL ALSO BE MESSY WITH NUMEROUS IMPULSES
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MAINLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL BE UNSEASONABLY HIGH WITH AT LEAST 70 PERCENT CHANCES FOR TUE
THRU WED. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE FORECAST WITH A FEW
STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE DURING THIS STRETCH. STAY TUNED TO FUTURE
WEATHER FORECASTS IN THE EVENT A FEW SEVERE STORMS DEVELOP DURING
THIS TIME. CELLS WILL BE PARTICULARLY FAST MOVING OUT OF THE WSW ON
WED. JET STREAM ENERGY WILL BE STRONGER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR ALLOWING FOR ADDITIONAL DIFFLUENCE ALOFT.

TEMPERATURES ON TUE WILL BE IN THE LOWER 80S WITH SOME PLACES
STRUGGLING TO AROUND 80 DEGREES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE VOLUSIA/SPACE
COASTS. WED HIGHS WILL AGAIN BE IN THE LOWER 80S. LOWS CONTINUE MILD
AND MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S WITH SOME LOWER 70S POSSIBLE AS WELL.

THU-THU NIGHT...THE SURFACE LOW WILL RACE UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD AS
THE COLD FRONT PULLS AWAY FROM THE EASTERN FL PENINSULA AND DEEPER
INTO THE WESTERN ATLC. WEST TO NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL RESULT.
MUCH DRIER AIR WILL FILTER DOWN THE PENINSULA BEHIND THIS LATEST
SYSTEM AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. SOME RESIDUAL
MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR A SHOWER OR AN ISOLD AFTN THUNDERSTORM TO
DEVELOP SOUTH OF ORLANDO ON THIS DAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S...EXCEPT A
FEW UPPER 50S POSSIBLE NORTH OF I-4.

FRI-SUN...HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND EAST TO ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. DURING THIS PERIOD AND WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER INFLUENCE. FOR
NOW WILL KEEP THIS PERIOD DRY AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN BELOW
20 PERCENT. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING AN ISOLD SHRA DURING THIS
STRETCH WILL BE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OR PERHAPS OVER THE TREASURE
COAST LATE IN THE PERIOD. UNSEASONABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES (HIGHS/
LOWS) FOR FRI-SAT WITH NEAR NORMAL CONDITIONS AGAIN FOR SUN-MON.

&&

.AVIATION...HIGH CLOUDS RENDERING LOW CLOUD PRODUCT USELESS...HOWEVER
STOUT W TO WSW FLOW COMING OFF THE GOMEX COUPLED WITH CURRENT METARS
OVER THE WRN PENINSULA ARGUE FOR MVFR CIGS BKN015 SPREADING EWD OVER
THE NRN AND CENTRAL AERODROMES THROUGH SUNRISE. SCT SHRA/TS ON TAP
FOR THIS AFTN....THOUGH PROBS AT 3-50...A BIT LOW TO GO WITH TEMPO
GROUPS THIS FAR OUT. MAY ADD SOME TO THE NRN AERODROMES FOR THE 12Z
PACKAGE AFTER EXAMINING RADAR TRENDS THE NEXT FEW HRS.

&&

.MARINE...

CURRENT THROUGH TONIGHT...MODERATE OFFSHORE BREEZE 10KT NEAR SHORE
AND AROUND 15KT WELL OFFSHORE IS KEEPING SEAS 1-2FT NEAR THE COAST
AND 2-3FT FARTHER OFFSHORE. HAVE UNDERCUT WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE BY
ABOUT A FOOT THROUGH TONIGHT...AS THESE CONDITIONS PERSIST AS N-NE
WINDS GRADUALLY OOZE INTO THE NRN WATERS TODAY AND LIGHT ONSHORE
WINDS BRIDGE THE FRONT BY LATE TONIGHT.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...E/ESE WINDS 10-15 KTS VEERING TO S/SSW IN THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT. SEAS 2-3 FT. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
LIGHTNING STORMS DEVELOPING ON THIS DAY/NIGHT AND VENTURING OFF OF
THE COAST AND ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. WINDS/SEAS LOCALLY HIGHER
INVOF SHOWERS/STORMS.

WED-FRI...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS NORTH FL WITH TRAILING
COLD FRONT PUSHING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WED EVENING. SW WINDS
BECOMING WRLY WED EVENING-THU...THEN NWRLY THU NIGHT-FRI. WIND
SPEEDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KTS DURING THE DAY ON WED...THEN 20-25
KTS WED EVENING-EARLY THU. WIND SPEEDS WILL SLOWLY DECLINE THU AFTN
THRU FRI. HIGH COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUES ON WED WITH A
FAST OFFSHORE MOVING COMPONENT. SEAS BUILDING TO 3-5 FT OVER THE
OPEN ATLC ON WED WITH SOME 6 FT SEAS WELL OFFSHORE WED
NIGHT/THU...THEN BACK DOWN TO 3-5 FT THU NIGHT AND 3-4 FT ON FRI.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  79  69  79  67 /  40  50  70  60
MCO  85  70  81  68 /  50  40  70  60
MLB  84  72  79  69 /  40  40  70  60
VRB  85  70  81  70 /  30  30  70  60
LEE  84  68  81  70 /  50  50  70  60
SFB  84  69  80  68 /  50  50  70  60
ORL  85  69  80  69 /  50  50  70  60
FPR  85  68  82  68 /  30  30  70  60

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...PENDERGRAST
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...WIMMER




000
FXUS62 KMLB 271320
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
920 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT-THIS AFTERNOON...FLAT 500MB FLOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND
FLORIDA CONTINUES FOR ANOTHER DAY. SURFACE FRONT STRETCHING WEST TO
EAST FROM EASTERN TEXAS ACROSS THE GULF COAST AND NORTH FLORIDA THEN
WELL EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC. SURFACE FRONT AND 500MB FLOW PARALLEL
WHICH MEANS THAT THE FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH TODAY. HIGHEST
RAIN CHANCES OVER THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA WHICH IS CLOSER TO THE
FRONT...HIGHER 500MB VORTICITY AND TO THE 250MB JET AXIS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES. CURRENT RAIN CHANCES OF 50 PERCENT NORTH TO 30
PERCENT IS GOOD. MORE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN
FORECAST AREA WHICH SHOULD EXPERIENCE MORE DAYTIME HEATING AND SEA
BREEZE POTENTIAL.

UPDATE WILL ADDRESS PRIMARILY WIND FIELDS.

.AVIATION...TEMPO MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY 18Z-24Z. MOST LIKELY
ADD VCTS KVRB SOUTH WHERE TSTM POTENTIAL HIGHER.

.MARINE...NOAA BUOYS 009 010 RECORDING WESTERLY WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS
AND 2 FEET AT 009 AND 5 FEET AT 010. THE TWO SCRIPPS BUOYS AT 4NM
AND 6NM OFF THE BEACHES WERE RECORDING 1 FOOT SEAS. BUOYS OBS
VALIDATE CURRENT/AFTERNOON FORECASTS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION


CURRENT...06Z SFC ANLYS PLACES SLOW MOVING E-W FRONTAL BDRY JUST
NORTH OF THE FL/AL-GA BORDERS. A QSTNRY E-W LINEAR CONVECTIVE BAND
HAS FORMED OVER THE PAST COUPLE HRS FROM ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTH OF
KMOB-KPNS EWD TO KCGC AND EXTENDING INLAND TO NRN LAKE CO. PRECIP
INTENSITY MUCH LESS OVER LAND THAN UPSTREAM OVER THE GOMEX. OTRW...
STEADY WSW TO SW FLOW KEEPING TEMPS ELEVATED...WITH JUST ABOUT ALL
REPORTING SITS STILL IN THE U70S.

TODAY-TONIGHT...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SAG SWD
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...THEN BECOME QSTNRY NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF
KLEE-KSFB-KXMR. NRN HALF CWA WILL REMAIN FOCUS FOR HIGHER PRECIP
CHCS GIVEN BETTER AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND FORCED ASCENT ALONG SRN
PERIPHERY OF STRONG H25 JET WITH WEAK MID LEVEL VORT RIPPLES
EMBEDDED IN THE FAST FLOW ALOFT. GIVEN THE OVERLY AGGRESSIVE MOS
NUMBERS OF THE PAST FEW DAYS...HAVE CUT BACK ON POPS BY 10-20 PCT
(ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SRN CWA) TRENDING FROM 50 N/W TO 30 S/E FOR
TODAY/TONIGHT. CLOUDS/PRECIP WILL HOLD TEMPS DOWN QUITE A BIT FROM
SUNDAY`S MAX TEMPS OF 88-96F. LOOKING AT L-M80S NORTH AND U80S CTRL
AND SOUTH. MINS IN THE U60S-L70S WITH MUCH LIGHTER WINDS AS FRONT
SETTLES ACROSS THE NRN CWA.

TUE-WED...AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN FOR APRIL DURING THIS PERIOD
WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL FL PENINSULA EARLY IN THE PERIOD
WILL LIFT NORTHWARD TUE-TUE NIGHT. A SURFACE LOW NEAR THE LOUISIANA
COAST WILL TRACK EASTWARD AND ACROSS NORTH FL TUE OVERNIGHT/EARLY
WED. A COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTH/SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE LOW WILL
MOVE THROUGH EAST CENTRAL FL WED EVENING. UNSEASONABLY MOIST DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE WILL ENCOMPASS THE REGION AS PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES APPROACH 1.80-2.00 INCHES. LIGHT EAST SURFACE WINDS TUE
MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS BACK NORTH. LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT
TUE INTO WED MORNING...THEN GUSTY SWRLY LATE WED MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...FINALLY WRLY WED NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND
MOVES THRU THE AREA.

THE MID-LEVEL PATTERN WILL ALSO BE MESSY WITH NUMEROUS IMPULSES
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MAINLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL BE UNSEASONABLY HIGH WITH AT LEAST 70 PERCENT CHANCES FOR TUE
THRU WED. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE FORECAST WITH A FEW
STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE DURING THIS STRETCH. STAY TUNED TO FUTURE
WEATHER FORECASTS IN THE EVENT A FEW SEVERE STORMS DEVELOP DURING
THIS TIME. CELLS WILL BE PARTICULARLY FAST MOVING OUT OF THE WSW ON
WED. JET STREAM ENERGY WILL BE STRONGER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR ALLOWING FOR ADDITIONAL DIFFLUENCE ALOFT.

TEMPERATURES ON TUE WILL BE IN THE LOWER 80S WITH SOME PLACES
STRUGGLING TO AROUND 80 DEGREES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE VOLUSIA/SPACE
COASTS. WED HIGHS WILL AGAIN BE IN THE LOWER 80S. LOWS CONTINUE MILD
AND MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S WITH SOME LOWER 70S POSSIBLE AS WELL.

THU-THU NIGHT...THE SURFACE LOW WILL RACE UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD AS
THE COLD FRONT PULLS AWAY FROM THE EASTERN FL PENINSULA AND DEEPER
INTO THE WESTERN ATLC. WEST TO NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL RESULT.
MUCH DRIER AIR WILL FILTER DOWN THE PENINSULA BEHIND THIS LATEST
SYSTEM AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. SOME RESIDUAL
MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR A SHOWER OR AN ISOLD AFTN THUNDERSTORM TO
DEVELOP SOUTH OF ORLANDO ON THIS DAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S...EXCEPT A
FEW UPPER 50S POSSIBLE NORTH OF I-4.

FRI-SUN...HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND EAST TO ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. DURING THIS PERIOD AND WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER INFLUENCE. FOR
NOW WILL KEEP THIS PERIOD DRY AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN BELOW
20 PERCENT. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING AN ISOLD SHRA DURING THIS
STRETCH WILL BE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OR PERHAPS OVER THE TREASURE
COAST LATE IN THE PERIOD. UNSEASONABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES (HIGHS/
LOWS) FOR FRI-SAT WITH NEAR NORMAL CONDITIONS AGAIN FOR SUN-MON.

&&

.AVIATION...HIGH CLOUDS RENDERING LOW CLOUD PRODUCT USELESS...HOWEVER
STOUT W TO WSW FLOW COMING OFF THE GOMEX COUPLED WITH CURRENT METARS
OVER THE WRN PENINSULA ARGUE FOR MVFR CIGS BKN015 SPREADING EWD OVER
THE NRN AND CENTRAL AERODROMES THROUGH SUNRISE. SCT SHRA/TS ON TAP
FOR THIS AFTN....THOUGH PROBS AT 3-50...A BIT LOW TO GO WITH TEMPO
GROUPS THIS FAR OUT. MAY ADD SOME TO THE NRN AERODROMES FOR THE 12Z
PACKAGE AFTER EXAMINING RADAR TRENDS THE NEXT FEW HRS.

&&

.MARINE...

CURRENT THROUGH TONIGHT...MODERATE OFFSHORE BREEZE 10KT NEAR SHORE
AND AROUND 15KT WELL OFFSHORE IS KEEPING SEAS 1-2FT NEAR THE COAST
AND 2-3FT FARTHER OFFSHORE. HAVE UNDERCUT WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE BY
ABOUT A FOOT THROUGH TONIGHT...AS THESE CONDITIONS PERSIST AS N-NE
WINDS GRADUALLY OOZE INTO THE NRN WATERS TODAY AND LIGHT ONSHORE
WINDS BRIDGE THE FRONT BY LATE TONIGHT.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...E/ESE WINDS 10-15 KTS VEERING TO S/SSW IN THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT. SEAS 2-3 FT. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
LIGHTNING STORMS DEVELOPING ON THIS DAY/NIGHT AND VENTURING OFF OF
THE COAST AND ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. WINDS/SEAS LOCALLY HIGHER
INVOF SHOWERS/STORMS.

WED-FRI...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS NORTH FL WITH TRAILING
COLD FRONT PUSHING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WED EVENING. SW WINDS
BECOMING WRLY WED EVENING-THU...THEN NWRLY THU NIGHT-FRI. WIND
SPEEDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KTS DURING THE DAY ON WED...THEN 20-25
KTS WED EVENING-EARLY THU. WIND SPEEDS WILL SLOWLY DECLINE THU AFTN
THRU FRI. HIGH COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUES ON WED WITH A
FAST OFFSHORE MOVING COMPONENT. SEAS BUILDING TO 3-5 FT OVER THE
OPEN ATLC ON WED WITH SOME 6 FT SEAS WELL OFFSHORE WED
NIGHT/THU...THEN BACK DOWN TO 3-5 FT THU NIGHT AND 3-4 FT ON FRI.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  79  69  79  67 /  40  50  70  60
MCO  85  70  81  68 /  50  40  70  60
MLB  84  72  79  69 /  40  40  70  60
VRB  85  70  81  70 /  30  30  70  60
LEE  84  68  81  70 /  50  50  70  60
SFB  84  69  80  68 /  50  50  70  60
ORL  85  69  80  69 /  50  50  70  60
FPR  85  68  82  68 /  30  30  70  60

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...PENDERGRAST
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...WIMMER





000
FXUS62 KMLB 270754
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
345 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT...06Z SFC ANLYS PLACES SLOW MOVING E-W FRONTAL BDRY JUST
NORTH OF THE FL/AL-GA BORDERS. A QSTNRY E-W LINEAR CONVECTIVE BAND
HAS FORMED OVER THE PAST COUPLE HRS FROM ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTH OF
KMOB-KPNS EWD TO KCGC AND EXTENDING INLAND TO NRN LAKE CO. PRECIP
INTENSITY MUCH LESS OVER LAND THAN UPSTREAM OVER THE GOMEX. OTRW...
STEADY WSW TO SW FLOW KEEPING TEMPS ELEVATED...WITH JUST ABOUT ALL
REPORTING SITS STILL IN THE U70S.

TODAY-TONIGHT...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SAG SWD
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...THEN BECOME QSTNRY NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF
KLEE-KSFB-KXMR. NRN HALF CWA WILL REMAIN FOCUS FOR HIGHER PRECIP
CHCS GIVEN BETTER AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND FORCED ASCENT ALONG SRN
PERIPHERY OF STRONG H25 JET WITH WEAK MID LEVEL VORT RIPPLES
EMBEDDED IN THE FAST FLOW ALOFT. GIVEN THE OVERLY AGGRESSIVE MOS
NUMBERS OF THE PAST FEW DAYS...HAVE CUT BACK ON POPS BY 10-20 PCT
(ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SRN CWA) TRENDING FROM 50 N/W TO 30 S/E FOR
TODAY/TONIGHT. CLOUDS/PRECIP WILL HOLD TEMPS DOWN QUITE A BIT FROM
SUNDAY`S MAX TEMPS OF 88-96F. LOOKING AT L-M80S NORTH AND U80S CTRL
AND SOUTH. MINS IN THE U60S-L70S WITH MUCH LIGHTER WINDS AS FRONT
SETTLES ACROSS THE NRN CWA.

TUE-WED...AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN FOR APRIL DURING THIS PERIOD
WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL FL PENINSULA EARLY IN THE PERIOD
WILL LIFT NORTHWARD TUE-TUE NIGHT. A SURFACE LOW NEAR THE LOUISIANA
COAST WILL TRACK EASTWARD AND ACROSS NORTH FL TUE OVERNIGHT/EARLY
WED. A COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTH/SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE LOW WILL
MOVE THROUGH EAST CENTRAL FL WED EVENING. UNSEASONABLY MOIST DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE WILL ENCOMPASS THE REGION AS PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES APPROACH 1.80-2.00 INCHES. LIGHT EAST SURFACE WINDS TUE
MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS BACK NORTH. LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT
TUE INTO WED MORNING...THEN GUSTY SWRLY LATE WED MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...FINALLY WRLY WED NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND
MOVES THRU THE AREA.

THE MID-LEVEL PATTERN WILL ALSO BE MESSY WITH NUMEROUS IMPULSES
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MAINLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL BE UNSEASONABLY HIGH WITH AT LEAST 70 PERCENT CHANCES FOR TUE
THRU WED. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE FORECAST WITH A FEW
STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE DURING THIS STRETCH. STAY TUNED TO FUTURE
WEATHER FORECASTS IN THE EVENT A FEW SEVERE STORMS DEVELOP DURING
THIS TIME. CELLS WILL BE PARTICULARLY FAST MOVING OUT OF THE WSW ON
WED. JET STREAM ENERGY WILL BE STRONGER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR ALLOWING FOR ADDITIONAL DIFFLUENCE ALOFT.

TEMPERATURES ON TUE WILL BE IN THE LOWER 80S WITH SOME PLACES
STRUGGLING TO AROUND 80 DEGREES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE VOLUSIA/SPACE
COASTS. WED HIGHS WILL AGAIN BE IN THE LOWER 80S. LOWS CONTINUE MILD
AND MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S WITH SOME LOWER 70S POSSIBLE AS WELL.

THU-THU NIGHT...THE SURFACE LOW WILL RACE UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD AS
THE COLD FRONT PULLS AWAY FROM THE EASTERN FL PENINSULA AND DEEPER
INTO THE WESTERN ATLC. WEST TO NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL RESULT.
MUCH DRIER AIR WILL FILTER DOWN THE PENINSULA BEHIND THIS LATEST
SYSTEM AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. SOME RESIDUAL
MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR A SHOWER OR AN ISOLD AFTN THUNDERSTORM TO
DEVELOP SOUTH OF ORLANDO ON THIS DAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S...EXCEPT A
FEW UPPER 50S POSSIBLE NORTH OF I-4.

FRI-SUN...HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND EAST TO ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. DURING THIS PERIOD AND WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER INFLUENCE. FOR
NOW WILL KEEP THIS PERIOD DRY AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN BELOW
20 PERCENT. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING AN ISOLD SHRA DURING THIS
STRETCH WILL BE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OR PERHAPS OVER THE TREASURE
COAST LATE IN THE PERIOD. UNSEASONABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES (HIGHS/
LOWS) FOR FRI-SAT WITH NEAR NORMAL CONDITIONS AGAIN FOR SUN-MON.

&&

.AVIATION...HIGH CLOUDS RENDERING LOW CLOUD PRODUCT USELESS...HOWEVER
STOUT W TO WSW FLOW COMING OFF THE GOMEX COUPLED WITH CURRENT METARS
OVER THE WRN PENINSULA ARGUE FOR MVFR CIGS BKN015 SPREADING EWD OVER
THE NRN AND CENTRAL AERODROMES THROUGH SUNRISE. SCT SHRA/TS ON TAP
FOR THIS AFTN....THOUGH PROBS AT 3-50...A BIT LOW TO GO WITH TEMPO
GROUPS THIS FAR OUT. MAY ADD SOME TO THE NRN AERODROMES FOR THE 12Z
PACKAGE AFTER EXAMINING RADAR TRENDS THE NEXT FEW HRS.

&&

.MARINE...

CURRENT THROUGH TONIGHT...MODERATE OFFSHORE BREEZE 10KT NEAR SHORE
AND AROUND 15KT WELL OFFSHORE IS KEEPING SEAS 1-2FT NEAR THE COAST
AND 2-3FT FARTHER OFFSHORE. HAVE UNDERCUT WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE BY
ABOUT A FOOT THROUGH TONIGHT...AS THESE CONDITIONS PERSIST AS N-NE
WINDS GRADUALLY OOZE INTO THE NRN WATERS TODAY AND LIGHT ONSHORE
WINDS BRIDGE THE FRONT BY LATE TONIGHT.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...E/ESE WINDS 10-15 KTS VEERING TO S/SSW IN THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT. SEAS 2-3 FT. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
LIGHTNING STORMS DEVELOPING ON THIS DAY/NIGHT AND VENTURING OFF OF
THE COAST AND ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. WINDS/SEAS LOCALLY HIGHER
INVOF SHOWERS/STORMS.

WED-FRI...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS NORTH FL WITH TRAILING
COLD FRONT PUSHING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WED EVENING. SW WINDS
BECOMING WRLY WED EVENING-THU...THEN NWRLY THU NIGHT-FRI. WIND
SPEEDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KTS DURING THE DAY ON WED...THEN 20-25
KTS WED EVENING-EARLY THU. WIND SPEEDS WILL SLOWLY DECLINE THU AFTN
THRU FRI. HIGH COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUES ON WED WITH A
FAST OFFSHORE MOVING COMPONENT. SEAS BUILDING TO 3-5 FT OVER THE
OPEN ATLC ON WED WITH SOME 6 FT SEAS WELL OFFSHORE WED
NIGHT/THU...THEN BACK DOWN TO 3-5 FT THU NIGHT AND 3-4 FT ON FRI.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  79  69  79  67 /  40  50  70  60
MCO  85  70  81  68 /  50  40  70  60
MLB  84  72  79  69 /  40  40  70  60
VRB  85  70  81  70 /  30  30  70  60
LEE  84  68  81  70 /  50  50  70  60
SFB  84  69  80  68 /  50  50  70  60
ORL  85  69  80  69 /  50  50  70  60
FPR  85  68  82  68 /  30  30  70  60

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...CRISTALDI
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...SEDLOCK




000
FXUS62 KMLB 270754
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
345 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT...06Z SFC ANLYS PLACES SLOW MOVING E-W FRONTAL BDRY JUST
NORTH OF THE FL/AL-GA BORDERS. A QSTNRY E-W LINEAR CONVECTIVE BAND
HAS FORMED OVER THE PAST COUPLE HRS FROM ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTH OF
KMOB-KPNS EWD TO KCGC AND EXTENDING INLAND TO NRN LAKE CO. PRECIP
INTENSITY MUCH LESS OVER LAND THAN UPSTREAM OVER THE GOMEX. OTRW...
STEADY WSW TO SW FLOW KEEPING TEMPS ELEVATED...WITH JUST ABOUT ALL
REPORTING SITS STILL IN THE U70S.

TODAY-TONIGHT...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SAG SWD
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...THEN BECOME QSTNRY NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF
KLEE-KSFB-KXMR. NRN HALF CWA WILL REMAIN FOCUS FOR HIGHER PRECIP
CHCS GIVEN BETTER AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND FORCED ASCENT ALONG SRN
PERIPHERY OF STRONG H25 JET WITH WEAK MID LEVEL VORT RIPPLES
EMBEDDED IN THE FAST FLOW ALOFT. GIVEN THE OVERLY AGGRESSIVE MOS
NUMBERS OF THE PAST FEW DAYS...HAVE CUT BACK ON POPS BY 10-20 PCT
(ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SRN CWA) TRENDING FROM 50 N/W TO 30 S/E FOR
TODAY/TONIGHT. CLOUDS/PRECIP WILL HOLD TEMPS DOWN QUITE A BIT FROM
SUNDAY`S MAX TEMPS OF 88-96F. LOOKING AT L-M80S NORTH AND U80S CTRL
AND SOUTH. MINS IN THE U60S-L70S WITH MUCH LIGHTER WINDS AS FRONT
SETTLES ACROSS THE NRN CWA.

TUE-WED...AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN FOR APRIL DURING THIS PERIOD
WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL FL PENINSULA EARLY IN THE PERIOD
WILL LIFT NORTHWARD TUE-TUE NIGHT. A SURFACE LOW NEAR THE LOUISIANA
COAST WILL TRACK EASTWARD AND ACROSS NORTH FL TUE OVERNIGHT/EARLY
WED. A COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTH/SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE LOW WILL
MOVE THROUGH EAST CENTRAL FL WED EVENING. UNSEASONABLY MOIST DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE WILL ENCOMPASS THE REGION AS PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES APPROACH 1.80-2.00 INCHES. LIGHT EAST SURFACE WINDS TUE
MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS BACK NORTH. LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT
TUE INTO WED MORNING...THEN GUSTY SWRLY LATE WED MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...FINALLY WRLY WED NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND
MOVES THRU THE AREA.

THE MID-LEVEL PATTERN WILL ALSO BE MESSY WITH NUMEROUS IMPULSES
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MAINLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL BE UNSEASONABLY HIGH WITH AT LEAST 70 PERCENT CHANCES FOR TUE
THRU WED. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE FORECAST WITH A FEW
STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE DURING THIS STRETCH. STAY TUNED TO FUTURE
WEATHER FORECASTS IN THE EVENT A FEW SEVERE STORMS DEVELOP DURING
THIS TIME. CELLS WILL BE PARTICULARLY FAST MOVING OUT OF THE WSW ON
WED. JET STREAM ENERGY WILL BE STRONGER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR ALLOWING FOR ADDITIONAL DIFFLUENCE ALOFT.

TEMPERATURES ON TUE WILL BE IN THE LOWER 80S WITH SOME PLACES
STRUGGLING TO AROUND 80 DEGREES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE VOLUSIA/SPACE
COASTS. WED HIGHS WILL AGAIN BE IN THE LOWER 80S. LOWS CONTINUE MILD
AND MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S WITH SOME LOWER 70S POSSIBLE AS WELL.

THU-THU NIGHT...THE SURFACE LOW WILL RACE UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD AS
THE COLD FRONT PULLS AWAY FROM THE EASTERN FL PENINSULA AND DEEPER
INTO THE WESTERN ATLC. WEST TO NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL RESULT.
MUCH DRIER AIR WILL FILTER DOWN THE PENINSULA BEHIND THIS LATEST
SYSTEM AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. SOME RESIDUAL
MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR A SHOWER OR AN ISOLD AFTN THUNDERSTORM TO
DEVELOP SOUTH OF ORLANDO ON THIS DAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S...EXCEPT A
FEW UPPER 50S POSSIBLE NORTH OF I-4.

FRI-SUN...HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND EAST TO ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. DURING THIS PERIOD AND WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER INFLUENCE. FOR
NOW WILL KEEP THIS PERIOD DRY AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN BELOW
20 PERCENT. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING AN ISOLD SHRA DURING THIS
STRETCH WILL BE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OR PERHAPS OVER THE TREASURE
COAST LATE IN THE PERIOD. UNSEASONABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES (HIGHS/
LOWS) FOR FRI-SAT WITH NEAR NORMAL CONDITIONS AGAIN FOR SUN-MON.

&&

.AVIATION...HIGH CLOUDS RENDERING LOW CLOUD PRODUCT USELESS...HOWEVER
STOUT W TO WSW FLOW COMING OFF THE GOMEX COUPLED WITH CURRENT METARS
OVER THE WRN PENINSULA ARGUE FOR MVFR CIGS BKN015 SPREADING EWD OVER
THE NRN AND CENTRAL AERODROMES THROUGH SUNRISE. SCT SHRA/TS ON TAP
FOR THIS AFTN....THOUGH PROBS AT 3-50...A BIT LOW TO GO WITH TEMPO
GROUPS THIS FAR OUT. MAY ADD SOME TO THE NRN AERODROMES FOR THE 12Z
PACKAGE AFTER EXAMINING RADAR TRENDS THE NEXT FEW HRS.

&&

.MARINE...

CURRENT THROUGH TONIGHT...MODERATE OFFSHORE BREEZE 10KT NEAR SHORE
AND AROUND 15KT WELL OFFSHORE IS KEEPING SEAS 1-2FT NEAR THE COAST
AND 2-3FT FARTHER OFFSHORE. HAVE UNDERCUT WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE BY
ABOUT A FOOT THROUGH TONIGHT...AS THESE CONDITIONS PERSIST AS N-NE
WINDS GRADUALLY OOZE INTO THE NRN WATERS TODAY AND LIGHT ONSHORE
WINDS BRIDGE THE FRONT BY LATE TONIGHT.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...E/ESE WINDS 10-15 KTS VEERING TO S/SSW IN THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT. SEAS 2-3 FT. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
LIGHTNING STORMS DEVELOPING ON THIS DAY/NIGHT AND VENTURING OFF OF
THE COAST AND ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. WINDS/SEAS LOCALLY HIGHER
INVOF SHOWERS/STORMS.

WED-FRI...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS NORTH FL WITH TRAILING
COLD FRONT PUSHING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WED EVENING. SW WINDS
BECOMING WRLY WED EVENING-THU...THEN NWRLY THU NIGHT-FRI. WIND
SPEEDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KTS DURING THE DAY ON WED...THEN 20-25
KTS WED EVENING-EARLY THU. WIND SPEEDS WILL SLOWLY DECLINE THU AFTN
THRU FRI. HIGH COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUES ON WED WITH A
FAST OFFSHORE MOVING COMPONENT. SEAS BUILDING TO 3-5 FT OVER THE
OPEN ATLC ON WED WITH SOME 6 FT SEAS WELL OFFSHORE WED
NIGHT/THU...THEN BACK DOWN TO 3-5 FT THU NIGHT AND 3-4 FT ON FRI.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  79  69  79  67 /  40  50  70  60
MCO  85  70  81  68 /  50  40  70  60
MLB  84  72  79  69 /  40  40  70  60
VRB  85  70  81  70 /  30  30  70  60
LEE  84  68  81  70 /  50  50  70  60
SFB  84  69  80  68 /  50  50  70  60
ORL  85  69  80  69 /  50  50  70  60
FPR  85  68  82  68 /  30  30  70  60

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...CRISTALDI
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...SEDLOCK




000
FXUS62 KMLB 270754
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
345 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT...06Z SFC ANLYS PLACES SLOW MOVING E-W FRONTAL BDRY JUST
NORTH OF THE FL/AL-GA BORDERS. A QSTNRY E-W LINEAR CONVECTIVE BAND
HAS FORMED OVER THE PAST COUPLE HRS FROM ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTH OF
KMOB-KPNS EWD TO KCGC AND EXTENDING INLAND TO NRN LAKE CO. PRECIP
INTENSITY MUCH LESS OVER LAND THAN UPSTREAM OVER THE GOMEX. OTRW...
STEADY WSW TO SW FLOW KEEPING TEMPS ELEVATED...WITH JUST ABOUT ALL
REPORTING SITS STILL IN THE U70S.

TODAY-TONIGHT...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SAG SWD
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...THEN BECOME QSTNRY NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF
KLEE-KSFB-KXMR. NRN HALF CWA WILL REMAIN FOCUS FOR HIGHER PRECIP
CHCS GIVEN BETTER AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND FORCED ASCENT ALONG SRN
PERIPHERY OF STRONG H25 JET WITH WEAK MID LEVEL VORT RIPPLES
EMBEDDED IN THE FAST FLOW ALOFT. GIVEN THE OVERLY AGGRESSIVE MOS
NUMBERS OF THE PAST FEW DAYS...HAVE CUT BACK ON POPS BY 10-20 PCT
(ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SRN CWA) TRENDING FROM 50 N/W TO 30 S/E FOR
TODAY/TONIGHT. CLOUDS/PRECIP WILL HOLD TEMPS DOWN QUITE A BIT FROM
SUNDAY`S MAX TEMPS OF 88-96F. LOOKING AT L-M80S NORTH AND U80S CTRL
AND SOUTH. MINS IN THE U60S-L70S WITH MUCH LIGHTER WINDS AS FRONT
SETTLES ACROSS THE NRN CWA.

TUE-WED...AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN FOR APRIL DURING THIS PERIOD
WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL FL PENINSULA EARLY IN THE PERIOD
WILL LIFT NORTHWARD TUE-TUE NIGHT. A SURFACE LOW NEAR THE LOUISIANA
COAST WILL TRACK EASTWARD AND ACROSS NORTH FL TUE OVERNIGHT/EARLY
WED. A COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTH/SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE LOW WILL
MOVE THROUGH EAST CENTRAL FL WED EVENING. UNSEASONABLY MOIST DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE WILL ENCOMPASS THE REGION AS PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES APPROACH 1.80-2.00 INCHES. LIGHT EAST SURFACE WINDS TUE
MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS BACK NORTH. LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT
TUE INTO WED MORNING...THEN GUSTY SWRLY LATE WED MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...FINALLY WRLY WED NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND
MOVES THRU THE AREA.

THE MID-LEVEL PATTERN WILL ALSO BE MESSY WITH NUMEROUS IMPULSES
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MAINLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL BE UNSEASONABLY HIGH WITH AT LEAST 70 PERCENT CHANCES FOR TUE
THRU WED. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE FORECAST WITH A FEW
STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE DURING THIS STRETCH. STAY TUNED TO FUTURE
WEATHER FORECASTS IN THE EVENT A FEW SEVERE STORMS DEVELOP DURING
THIS TIME. CELLS WILL BE PARTICULARLY FAST MOVING OUT OF THE WSW ON
WED. JET STREAM ENERGY WILL BE STRONGER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR ALLOWING FOR ADDITIONAL DIFFLUENCE ALOFT.

TEMPERATURES ON TUE WILL BE IN THE LOWER 80S WITH SOME PLACES
STRUGGLING TO AROUND 80 DEGREES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE VOLUSIA/SPACE
COASTS. WED HIGHS WILL AGAIN BE IN THE LOWER 80S. LOWS CONTINUE MILD
AND MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S WITH SOME LOWER 70S POSSIBLE AS WELL.

THU-THU NIGHT...THE SURFACE LOW WILL RACE UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD AS
THE COLD FRONT PULLS AWAY FROM THE EASTERN FL PENINSULA AND DEEPER
INTO THE WESTERN ATLC. WEST TO NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL RESULT.
MUCH DRIER AIR WILL FILTER DOWN THE PENINSULA BEHIND THIS LATEST
SYSTEM AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. SOME RESIDUAL
MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR A SHOWER OR AN ISOLD AFTN THUNDERSTORM TO
DEVELOP SOUTH OF ORLANDO ON THIS DAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S...EXCEPT A
FEW UPPER 50S POSSIBLE NORTH OF I-4.

FRI-SUN...HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND EAST TO ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. DURING THIS PERIOD AND WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER INFLUENCE. FOR
NOW WILL KEEP THIS PERIOD DRY AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN BELOW
20 PERCENT. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING AN ISOLD SHRA DURING THIS
STRETCH WILL BE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OR PERHAPS OVER THE TREASURE
COAST LATE IN THE PERIOD. UNSEASONABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES (HIGHS/
LOWS) FOR FRI-SAT WITH NEAR NORMAL CONDITIONS AGAIN FOR SUN-MON.

&&

.AVIATION...HIGH CLOUDS RENDERING LOW CLOUD PRODUCT USELESS...HOWEVER
STOUT W TO WSW FLOW COMING OFF THE GOMEX COUPLED WITH CURRENT METARS
OVER THE WRN PENINSULA ARGUE FOR MVFR CIGS BKN015 SPREADING EWD OVER
THE NRN AND CENTRAL AERODROMES THROUGH SUNRISE. SCT SHRA/TS ON TAP
FOR THIS AFTN....THOUGH PROBS AT 3-50...A BIT LOW TO GO WITH TEMPO
GROUPS THIS FAR OUT. MAY ADD SOME TO THE NRN AERODROMES FOR THE 12Z
PACKAGE AFTER EXAMINING RADAR TRENDS THE NEXT FEW HRS.

&&

.MARINE...

CURRENT THROUGH TONIGHT...MODERATE OFFSHORE BREEZE 10KT NEAR SHORE
AND AROUND 15KT WELL OFFSHORE IS KEEPING SEAS 1-2FT NEAR THE COAST
AND 2-3FT FARTHER OFFSHORE. HAVE UNDERCUT WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE BY
ABOUT A FOOT THROUGH TONIGHT...AS THESE CONDITIONS PERSIST AS N-NE
WINDS GRADUALLY OOZE INTO THE NRN WATERS TODAY AND LIGHT ONSHORE
WINDS BRIDGE THE FRONT BY LATE TONIGHT.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...E/ESE WINDS 10-15 KTS VEERING TO S/SSW IN THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT. SEAS 2-3 FT. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
LIGHTNING STORMS DEVELOPING ON THIS DAY/NIGHT AND VENTURING OFF OF
THE COAST AND ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. WINDS/SEAS LOCALLY HIGHER
INVOF SHOWERS/STORMS.

WED-FRI...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS NORTH FL WITH TRAILING
COLD FRONT PUSHING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WED EVENING. SW WINDS
BECOMING WRLY WED EVENING-THU...THEN NWRLY THU NIGHT-FRI. WIND
SPEEDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KTS DURING THE DAY ON WED...THEN 20-25
KTS WED EVENING-EARLY THU. WIND SPEEDS WILL SLOWLY DECLINE THU AFTN
THRU FRI. HIGH COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUES ON WED WITH A
FAST OFFSHORE MOVING COMPONENT. SEAS BUILDING TO 3-5 FT OVER THE
OPEN ATLC ON WED WITH SOME 6 FT SEAS WELL OFFSHORE WED
NIGHT/THU...THEN BACK DOWN TO 3-5 FT THU NIGHT AND 3-4 FT ON FRI.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  79  69  79  67 /  40  50  70  60
MCO  85  70  81  68 /  50  40  70  60
MLB  84  72  79  69 /  40  40  70  60
VRB  85  70  81  70 /  30  30  70  60
LEE  84  68  81  70 /  50  50  70  60
SFB  84  69  80  68 /  50  50  70  60
ORL  85  69  80  69 /  50  50  70  60
FPR  85  68  82  68 /  30  30  70  60

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...CRISTALDI
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...SEDLOCK





000
FXUS62 KMLB 270754
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
345 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT...06Z SFC ANLYS PLACES SLOW MOVING E-W FRONTAL BDRY JUST
NORTH OF THE FL/AL-GA BORDERS. A QSTNRY E-W LINEAR CONVECTIVE BAND
HAS FORMED OVER THE PAST COUPLE HRS FROM ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTH OF
KMOB-KPNS EWD TO KCGC AND EXTENDING INLAND TO NRN LAKE CO. PRECIP
INTENSITY MUCH LESS OVER LAND THAN UPSTREAM OVER THE GOMEX. OTRW...
STEADY WSW TO SW FLOW KEEPING TEMPS ELEVATED...WITH JUST ABOUT ALL
REPORTING SITS STILL IN THE U70S.

TODAY-TONIGHT...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SAG SWD
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...THEN BECOME QSTNRY NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF
KLEE-KSFB-KXMR. NRN HALF CWA WILL REMAIN FOCUS FOR HIGHER PRECIP
CHCS GIVEN BETTER AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND FORCED ASCENT ALONG SRN
PERIPHERY OF STRONG H25 JET WITH WEAK MID LEVEL VORT RIPPLES
EMBEDDED IN THE FAST FLOW ALOFT. GIVEN THE OVERLY AGGRESSIVE MOS
NUMBERS OF THE PAST FEW DAYS...HAVE CUT BACK ON POPS BY 10-20 PCT
(ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SRN CWA) TRENDING FROM 50 N/W TO 30 S/E FOR
TODAY/TONIGHT. CLOUDS/PRECIP WILL HOLD TEMPS DOWN QUITE A BIT FROM
SUNDAY`S MAX TEMPS OF 88-96F. LOOKING AT L-M80S NORTH AND U80S CTRL
AND SOUTH. MINS IN THE U60S-L70S WITH MUCH LIGHTER WINDS AS FRONT
SETTLES ACROSS THE NRN CWA.

TUE-WED...AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN FOR APRIL DURING THIS PERIOD
WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL FL PENINSULA EARLY IN THE PERIOD
WILL LIFT NORTHWARD TUE-TUE NIGHT. A SURFACE LOW NEAR THE LOUISIANA
COAST WILL TRACK EASTWARD AND ACROSS NORTH FL TUE OVERNIGHT/EARLY
WED. A COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTH/SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE LOW WILL
MOVE THROUGH EAST CENTRAL FL WED EVENING. UNSEASONABLY MOIST DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE WILL ENCOMPASS THE REGION AS PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES APPROACH 1.80-2.00 INCHES. LIGHT EAST SURFACE WINDS TUE
MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS BACK NORTH. LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT
TUE INTO WED MORNING...THEN GUSTY SWRLY LATE WED MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...FINALLY WRLY WED NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND
MOVES THRU THE AREA.

THE MID-LEVEL PATTERN WILL ALSO BE MESSY WITH NUMEROUS IMPULSES
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MAINLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL BE UNSEASONABLY HIGH WITH AT LEAST 70 PERCENT CHANCES FOR TUE
THRU WED. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE FORECAST WITH A FEW
STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE DURING THIS STRETCH. STAY TUNED TO FUTURE
WEATHER FORECASTS IN THE EVENT A FEW SEVERE STORMS DEVELOP DURING
THIS TIME. CELLS WILL BE PARTICULARLY FAST MOVING OUT OF THE WSW ON
WED. JET STREAM ENERGY WILL BE STRONGER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR ALLOWING FOR ADDITIONAL DIFFLUENCE ALOFT.

TEMPERATURES ON TUE WILL BE IN THE LOWER 80S WITH SOME PLACES
STRUGGLING TO AROUND 80 DEGREES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE VOLUSIA/SPACE
COASTS. WED HIGHS WILL AGAIN BE IN THE LOWER 80S. LOWS CONTINUE MILD
AND MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S WITH SOME LOWER 70S POSSIBLE AS WELL.

THU-THU NIGHT...THE SURFACE LOW WILL RACE UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD AS
THE COLD FRONT PULLS AWAY FROM THE EASTERN FL PENINSULA AND DEEPER
INTO THE WESTERN ATLC. WEST TO NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL RESULT.
MUCH DRIER AIR WILL FILTER DOWN THE PENINSULA BEHIND THIS LATEST
SYSTEM AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. SOME RESIDUAL
MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR A SHOWER OR AN ISOLD AFTN THUNDERSTORM TO
DEVELOP SOUTH OF ORLANDO ON THIS DAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S...EXCEPT A
FEW UPPER 50S POSSIBLE NORTH OF I-4.

FRI-SUN...HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND EAST TO ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. DURING THIS PERIOD AND WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER INFLUENCE. FOR
NOW WILL KEEP THIS PERIOD DRY AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN BELOW
20 PERCENT. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING AN ISOLD SHRA DURING THIS
STRETCH WILL BE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OR PERHAPS OVER THE TREASURE
COAST LATE IN THE PERIOD. UNSEASONABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES (HIGHS/
LOWS) FOR FRI-SAT WITH NEAR NORMAL CONDITIONS AGAIN FOR SUN-MON.

&&

.AVIATION...HIGH CLOUDS RENDERING LOW CLOUD PRODUCT USELESS...HOWEVER
STOUT W TO WSW FLOW COMING OFF THE GOMEX COUPLED WITH CURRENT METARS
OVER THE WRN PENINSULA ARGUE FOR MVFR CIGS BKN015 SPREADING EWD OVER
THE NRN AND CENTRAL AERODROMES THROUGH SUNRISE. SCT SHRA/TS ON TAP
FOR THIS AFTN....THOUGH PROBS AT 3-50...A BIT LOW TO GO WITH TEMPO
GROUPS THIS FAR OUT. MAY ADD SOME TO THE NRN AERODROMES FOR THE 12Z
PACKAGE AFTER EXAMINING RADAR TRENDS THE NEXT FEW HRS.

&&

.MARINE...

CURRENT THROUGH TONIGHT...MODERATE OFFSHORE BREEZE 10KT NEAR SHORE
AND AROUND 15KT WELL OFFSHORE IS KEEPING SEAS 1-2FT NEAR THE COAST
AND 2-3FT FARTHER OFFSHORE. HAVE UNDERCUT WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE BY
ABOUT A FOOT THROUGH TONIGHT...AS THESE CONDITIONS PERSIST AS N-NE
WINDS GRADUALLY OOZE INTO THE NRN WATERS TODAY AND LIGHT ONSHORE
WINDS BRIDGE THE FRONT BY LATE TONIGHT.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...E/ESE WINDS 10-15 KTS VEERING TO S/SSW IN THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT. SEAS 2-3 FT. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
LIGHTNING STORMS DEVELOPING ON THIS DAY/NIGHT AND VENTURING OFF OF
THE COAST AND ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. WINDS/SEAS LOCALLY HIGHER
INVOF SHOWERS/STORMS.

WED-FRI...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS NORTH FL WITH TRAILING
COLD FRONT PUSHING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WED EVENING. SW WINDS
BECOMING WRLY WED EVENING-THU...THEN NWRLY THU NIGHT-FRI. WIND
SPEEDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KTS DURING THE DAY ON WED...THEN 20-25
KTS WED EVENING-EARLY THU. WIND SPEEDS WILL SLOWLY DECLINE THU AFTN
THRU FRI. HIGH COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUES ON WED WITH A
FAST OFFSHORE MOVING COMPONENT. SEAS BUILDING TO 3-5 FT OVER THE
OPEN ATLC ON WED WITH SOME 6 FT SEAS WELL OFFSHORE WED
NIGHT/THU...THEN BACK DOWN TO 3-5 FT THU NIGHT AND 3-4 FT ON FRI.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  79  69  79  67 /  40  50  70  60
MCO  85  70  81  68 /  50  40  70  60
MLB  84  72  79  69 /  40  40  70  60
VRB  85  70  81  70 /  30  30  70  60
LEE  84  68  81  70 /  50  50  70  60
SFB  84  69  80  68 /  50  50  70  60
ORL  85  69  80  69 /  50  50  70  60
FPR  85  68  82  68 /  30  30  70  60

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...CRISTALDI
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...SEDLOCK





000
FXUS62 KMLB 270204
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1004 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT-TONIGHT...A VERY MOIST LOW LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW IS OCCURRING
WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.  EVENING SOUNDINGS WERE
QUITE MOIST WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER 1.8 TO 1.9 INCHES AT CANAVERAL
AND TAMPA. A SMALL CLUSTER OF CONVECTION OVER THE MIDDLE GULF OF
MEXICO HAS ALREADY DIMINISHED...BUT WITH BREEZY LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD
OF BACK DOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY...EXPECT THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS
MOVING WELL INLAND OFF OF THE GULF. THE HRRR MODEL SHOWS SOME LIGHT
DEBRIS RAINFALL PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTH HALF.  THIS MODEL ALSO
SHOWS SLIGHT LIGHTNING CHANCES...BUT WILL NOT FOLLOW ALONG WITH
THAT. INSTEAD...WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

EXPECT CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER WITH THE MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE.
MIN TEMPS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO RUN WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE
LOWER/MID 70S. A FEW RECORD WARM LOWS ARE POSSIBLE.

MON...A WEAK BACK DOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTLING SOUTH OVER THE ATLANTIC
WILL DIMINISH LOW LEVEL WINDS.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW AN EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE TO DEVELOP. THIS FACT...COMBINED WITH MID/HIGH CLOUD LAYERS
SHOULD KNOCK MAX TEMPS DOWN SOME...INTO THE MID-UPPER 80S.  QUITE HIGH
MOISTURE IS INDICATED BUT DUE TO REDUCED SOLAR INSOLATION...COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS LOOKS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT IN THE VERY
MOIST LOW LEVEL FLOW.  CEILINGS COULD DROP DOWN TO AROUND FL010 BUT
MOSTLY EXPECT THEM AT OR ABOVE FL020. SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS
ON MON...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...OFFSHORE BUOYS ARE SIGNIFICANTLY UNDER PERFORMING MARINE
MOS.  EXPECT THERE IS A STABILITY FACTOR AT PLAY WITH WEST FLOW OFF
THE COOLER SHELF WATERS KEEPING 15-20 KNOTS WINDS A LITTLE ABOVE
THE SEA SURFACE.  WITH SLIGHT TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
INDICATED BY THE MODELS...WILL CONTINUE AN EXERCISE CAUTION
STATEMENT FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS.

MON...AN OFFSHORE WIND FLOW 10-15 KNOTS IS INDICATED EARLY THEN
THE FLOW WILL SHIFT MORE TO THE NORTH AS A WEAK BOUNDARY SETTLES
SOUTH OVER THE WATERS. SPEEDS SHOULD ALSO DIMINISH FURTHER DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE FOR OFFSHORE MOVING
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGH SET AT MLB TODAY.  ALSO VRB TIED THEIR RECORD
HIGH... WHICH WAS ALSO THE HIGHEST TEMPERATURE ON RECORD FOR THE
MONTH OF APRIL.

RECORD WARM LOW TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE SET/TIED DAB/MCO/MLB/VRB TODAY.

HIGH TODAY    RECORD    LOW TODAY  RECORD WARM LOW
MLB   93    92 IN 2006      74        73 IN 1957
VRB   95    95 IN 1945      74        74 IN 2011
DAB   88    93 IN 1967      74        72 IN 2011
MCO   89    98 IN 1908      76        73 IN 1908

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

FORECAST/UPDATES...LASCODY
IMPACT WEATHER...VOLKMER




000
FXUS62 KMLB 270204
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1004 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT-TONIGHT...A VERY MOIST LOW LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW IS OCCURRING
WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.  EVENING SOUNDINGS WERE
QUITE MOIST WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER 1.8 TO 1.9 INCHES AT CANAVERAL
AND TAMPA. A SMALL CLUSTER OF CONVECTION OVER THE MIDDLE GULF OF
MEXICO HAS ALREADY DIMINISHED...BUT WITH BREEZY LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD
OF BACK DOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY...EXPECT THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS
MOVING WELL INLAND OFF OF THE GULF. THE HRRR MODEL SHOWS SOME LIGHT
DEBRIS RAINFALL PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTH HALF.  THIS MODEL ALSO
SHOWS SLIGHT LIGHTNING CHANCES...BUT WILL NOT FOLLOW ALONG WITH
THAT. INSTEAD...WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

EXPECT CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER WITH THE MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE.
MIN TEMPS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO RUN WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE
LOWER/MID 70S. A FEW RECORD WARM LOWS ARE POSSIBLE.

MON...A WEAK BACK DOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTLING SOUTH OVER THE ATLANTIC
WILL DIMINISH LOW LEVEL WINDS.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW AN EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE TO DEVELOP. THIS FACT...COMBINED WITH MID/HIGH CLOUD LAYERS
SHOULD KNOCK MAX TEMPS DOWN SOME...INTO THE MID-UPPER 80S.  QUITE HIGH
MOISTURE IS INDICATED BUT DUE TO REDUCED SOLAR INSOLATION...COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS LOOKS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT IN THE VERY
MOIST LOW LEVEL FLOW.  CEILINGS COULD DROP DOWN TO AROUND FL010 BUT
MOSTLY EXPECT THEM AT OR ABOVE FL020. SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS
ON MON...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...OFFSHORE BUOYS ARE SIGNIFICANTLY UNDER PERFORMING MARINE
MOS.  EXPECT THERE IS A STABILITY FACTOR AT PLAY WITH WEST FLOW OFF
THE COOLER SHELF WATERS KEEPING 15-20 KNOTS WINDS A LITTLE ABOVE
THE SEA SURFACE.  WITH SLIGHT TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
INDICATED BY THE MODELS...WILL CONTINUE AN EXERCISE CAUTION
STATEMENT FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS.

MON...AN OFFSHORE WIND FLOW 10-15 KNOTS IS INDICATED EARLY THEN
THE FLOW WILL SHIFT MORE TO THE NORTH AS A WEAK BOUNDARY SETTLES
SOUTH OVER THE WATERS. SPEEDS SHOULD ALSO DIMINISH FURTHER DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE FOR OFFSHORE MOVING
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGH SET AT MLB TODAY.  ALSO VRB TIED THEIR RECORD
HIGH... WHICH WAS ALSO THE HIGHEST TEMPERATURE ON RECORD FOR THE
MONTH OF APRIL.

RECORD WARM LOW TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE SET/TIED DAB/MCO/MLB/VRB TODAY.

HIGH TODAY    RECORD    LOW TODAY  RECORD WARM LOW
MLB   93    92 IN 2006      74        73 IN 1957
VRB   95    95 IN 1945      74        74 IN 2011
DAB   88    93 IN 1967      74        72 IN 2011
MCO   89    98 IN 1908      76        73 IN 1908

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

FORECAST/UPDATES...LASCODY
IMPACT WEATHER...VOLKMER





000
FXUS62 KMLB 261931 CCA
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
330 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT-TONIGHT...IMPULSES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE QUICKLY WEST TO
EAST IN THE DEEP FLAT MID LEVEL FLOW. SHALLOW DEPTH OF MOISTURE
SUGGESTS SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS AND SHOWERS THROUGH LATE EVENING
THEN ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS FROM MID LEVEL CLOUDS. LOWS IN THE LOW
AND MID 70S.

MON-MON NIGHT...TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS ARE INDICATING VERY DEEP
LAYERED MOISTURE FIELD...THROUGH 200MB...WHICH WOULD INDICATE BETTER
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. WEAK BOUNDARY SETTLES OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.
WESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY SHIFTS TO THE NORTH AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

TUE-WED...PLUME OF MOISTURE AHEAD A GULF OF MEXICO LOW MOVING TO THE
NORTHEAST STREAMS NORTHEAST OVER FLORIDA. WARM FRONT MOVING
NORTHWARD OVER FLORIDA PLACES THE STATE IN THE WARM SECTION TUE AND
WED. THE COMBINATION OF BETTER MOISTURE AND STRONGER MID LEVEL
IMPULSES MOVING OVERHEAD RESULTS IN MUCH HIGHER RAIN CHANCES AROUND
70 PERCENT WITH CHANCE OF STORMS. HIGHS IN THE LOW AND MID 80S.

THU-SAT...THREAT FOR SHOWERS LINGERS INTO THU (MAINLY EARLY) AS A
WEAK SECONDARY TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WITH
DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL TAKE HOLD THROUGH FRI/FRI NIGHT.
WINDS VEER ONSHORE NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING NORTH OF
FL ELONGATES EWD. COULD SEE A SMALL COASTAL SHOWERS THREAT DEVELOP
BUT RATHER EARLY TO GAUGE THE STRENGTH OF EASTERLIES THIS FAR OUT.

.AVIATION...VFR PREVAILING. TEMPO MVFR IN VC OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS MAINLY KVRB NORTH THIS EVENING.

.MARINE...

TONIGHT...OFFSHORE FLOW TONIGHT AS A WEAK FRONT/TROUGH MOVED
SOUTHWARD OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. BRIEF SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE
CAUTION TONIGHT THEN DROPPING TO 15 KNOTS OR LESS AS THE PARENT LOW
OFF NEW ENGLAND LIFTS FURTHER AWAY AND THE GRADIENT WEAKENS MORE.

MON-TUE...FLOW SHIFTS TO THE NORTH THEN NORTHEAST BEHIND THE
WEAKENING FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA. WINDS 10
TO 15 KNOTS OR LESS.

WED-FRI...SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WED AND THU IN THE WARM SECTOR OF
ADVANCING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST LATE FRI
WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  70  82  69  79 /  20  20  30  70
MCO  73  85  69  83 /  30  40  30  70
MLB  72  83  71  80 /  40  20  30  70
VRB  73  85  71  81 /  30  20  40  70
LEE  72  85  70  82 /  30  50  30  70
SFB  72  85  69  81 /  30  40  30  70
ORL  73  85  70  82 /  30  40  30  70
FPR  73  86  69  82 /  20  20  40  70

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...SHARP
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...WIMMER





000
FXUS62 KMLB 261931 CCA
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
330 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT-TONIGHT...IMPULSES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE QUICKLY WEST TO
EAST IN THE DEEP FLAT MID LEVEL FLOW. SHALLOW DEPTH OF MOISTURE
SUGGESTS SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS AND SHOWERS THROUGH LATE EVENING
THEN ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS FROM MID LEVEL CLOUDS. LOWS IN THE LOW
AND MID 70S.

MON-MON NIGHT...TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS ARE INDICATING VERY DEEP
LAYERED MOISTURE FIELD...THROUGH 200MB...WHICH WOULD INDICATE BETTER
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. WEAK BOUNDARY SETTLES OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.
WESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY SHIFTS TO THE NORTH AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

TUE-WED...PLUME OF MOISTURE AHEAD A GULF OF MEXICO LOW MOVING TO THE
NORTHEAST STREAMS NORTHEAST OVER FLORIDA. WARM FRONT MOVING
NORTHWARD OVER FLORIDA PLACES THE STATE IN THE WARM SECTION TUE AND
WED. THE COMBINATION OF BETTER MOISTURE AND STRONGER MID LEVEL
IMPULSES MOVING OVERHEAD RESULTS IN MUCH HIGHER RAIN CHANCES AROUND
70 PERCENT WITH CHANCE OF STORMS. HIGHS IN THE LOW AND MID 80S.

THU-SAT...THREAT FOR SHOWERS LINGERS INTO THU (MAINLY EARLY) AS A
WEAK SECONDARY TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WITH
DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL TAKE HOLD THROUGH FRI/FRI NIGHT.
WINDS VEER ONSHORE NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING NORTH OF
FL ELONGATES EWD. COULD SEE A SMALL COASTAL SHOWERS THREAT DEVELOP
BUT RATHER EARLY TO GAUGE THE STRENGTH OF EASTERLIES THIS FAR OUT.

.AVIATION...VFR PREVAILING. TEMPO MVFR IN VC OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS MAINLY KVRB NORTH THIS EVENING.

.MARINE...

TONIGHT...OFFSHORE FLOW TONIGHT AS A WEAK FRONT/TROUGH MOVED
SOUTHWARD OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. BRIEF SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE
CAUTION TONIGHT THEN DROPPING TO 15 KNOTS OR LESS AS THE PARENT LOW
OFF NEW ENGLAND LIFTS FURTHER AWAY AND THE GRADIENT WEAKENS MORE.

MON-TUE...FLOW SHIFTS TO THE NORTH THEN NORTHEAST BEHIND THE
WEAKENING FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA. WINDS 10
TO 15 KNOTS OR LESS.

WED-FRI...SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WED AND THU IN THE WARM SECTOR OF
ADVANCING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST LATE FRI
WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  70  82  69  79 /  20  20  30  70
MCO  73  85  69  83 /  30  40  30  70
MLB  72  83  71  80 /  40  20  30  70
VRB  73  85  71  81 /  30  20  40  70
LEE  72  85  70  82 /  30  50  30  70
SFB  72  85  69  81 /  30  40  30  70
ORL  73  85  70  82 /  30  40  30  70
FPR  73  86  69  82 /  20  20  40  70

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...SHARP
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...WIMMER




000
FXUS62 KMLB 261931
AFDMLB

DDHHMM 261928
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
330 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT-TONIGHT...IMPULSES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE QUICKLY WEST TO
EAST IN THE DEEP FLAT MID LEVEL FLOW. SHALLOW DEPTH OF MOISTURE
SUGGESTS SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS AND SHOWERS THROUGH LATE EVENING
THEN ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS FROM MID LEVEL CLOUDS. LOWS IN THE LOW
AND MID 70S.

MON-MON NIGHT...TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS ARE INDICATING VERY DEEP
LAYERED MOISTURE FIELD...THROUGH 200MB...WHICH WOULD INDICATE BETTER
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. WEAK BOUNDARY SETTLES OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.
WESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY SHIFTS TO THE NORTH AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

TUE-WED...PLUME OF MOISTURE AHEAD A GULF OF MEXICO LOW MOVING TO THE
NORTHEAST STREAMS NORTHEAST OVER FLORIDA. WARM FRONT MOVING
NORTHWARD OVER FLORIDA PLACES THE STATE IN THE WARM SECTION TUE AND
WED. THE COMBINATION OF BETTER MOISTURE AND STRONGER MID LEVEL
IMPULSES MOVING OVERHEAD RESULTS IN MUCH HIGHER RAIN CHANCES AROUND
70 PERCENT WITH CHANCE OF STORMS. HIGHS IN THE LOW AND MID 80S.

THU-SAT...THREAT FOR SHOWERS LINGERS INTO THU (MAINLY EARLY) AS A
WEAK SECONDARY TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WITH
DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL TAKE HOLD THROUGH FRI/FRI NIGHT.
WINDS VEER ONSHORE NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING NORTH OF
FL ELONGATES EWD. COULD SEE A SMALL COASTAL SHOWERS THREAT DEVELOP
BUT RATHER EARLY TO GAUGE THE STRENGTH OF EASTERLIES THIS FAR OUT.

.AVIATION...VFR PREVAILING. TEMPO MVFR IN VC OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS MAINLY KVRB NORTH THIS EVENING.

.MARINE...

TONIGHT...OFFSHORE FLOW TONIGHT AS A WEAK FRONT/TROUGH MOVED
SOUTHWARD OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. BRIEF SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE
CAUTION TONIGHT THEN DROPPING TO 15 KNOTS OR LESS AS THE PARENT LOW
OFF NEW ENGLAND LIFTS FURTHER AWAY AND THE GRADIENT WEAKENS MORE.

MON-TUE...FLOW SHIFTS TO THE NORTH THEN NORTHEAST BEHIND THE
WEAKENING FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA. WINDS 10
TO 15 KNOTS OR LESS.

WED-FRI...SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WED AND THU IN THE WARM SECTOR OF
ADVANCING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST LATE FRI
WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  70  82  69  79 /  20  20  30  70
MCO  73  85  69  83 /  30  40  30  70
MLB  72  83  71  80 /  40  20  30  70
VRB  73  85  71  81 /  30  20  40  70
LEE  72  85  70  82 /  30  50  30  70
SFB  72  85  69  81 /  30  40  30  70
ORL  73  85  70  82 /  30  40  30  70
FPR  73  86  69  82 /  20  20  40  70

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...SHARP
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...WIMMER




000
FXUS62 KMLB 261931
AFDMLB

DDHHMM 261928
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
330 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT-TONIGHT...IMPULSES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE QUICKLY WEST TO
EAST IN THE DEEP FLAT MID LEVEL FLOW. SHALLOW DEPTH OF MOISTURE
SUGGESTS SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS AND SHOWERS THROUGH LATE EVENING
THEN ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS FROM MID LEVEL CLOUDS. LOWS IN THE LOW
AND MID 70S.

MON-MON NIGHT...TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS ARE INDICATING VERY DEEP
LAYERED MOISTURE FIELD...THROUGH 200MB...WHICH WOULD INDICATE BETTER
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. WEAK BOUNDARY SETTLES OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.
WESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY SHIFTS TO THE NORTH AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

TUE-WED...PLUME OF MOISTURE AHEAD A GULF OF MEXICO LOW MOVING TO THE
NORTHEAST STREAMS NORTHEAST OVER FLORIDA. WARM FRONT MOVING
NORTHWARD OVER FLORIDA PLACES THE STATE IN THE WARM SECTION TUE AND
WED. THE COMBINATION OF BETTER MOISTURE AND STRONGER MID LEVEL
IMPULSES MOVING OVERHEAD RESULTS IN MUCH HIGHER RAIN CHANCES AROUND
70 PERCENT WITH CHANCE OF STORMS. HIGHS IN THE LOW AND MID 80S.

THU-SAT...THREAT FOR SHOWERS LINGERS INTO THU (MAINLY EARLY) AS A
WEAK SECONDARY TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WITH
DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL TAKE HOLD THROUGH FRI/FRI NIGHT.
WINDS VEER ONSHORE NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING NORTH OF
FL ELONGATES EWD. COULD SEE A SMALL COASTAL SHOWERS THREAT DEVELOP
BUT RATHER EARLY TO GAUGE THE STRENGTH OF EASTERLIES THIS FAR OUT.

.AVIATION...VFR PREVAILING. TEMPO MVFR IN VC OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS MAINLY KVRB NORTH THIS EVENING.

.MARINE...

TONIGHT...OFFSHORE FLOW TONIGHT AS A WEAK FRONT/TROUGH MOVED
SOUTHWARD OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. BRIEF SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE
CAUTION TONIGHT THEN DROPPING TO 15 KNOTS OR LESS AS THE PARENT LOW
OFF NEW ENGLAND LIFTS FURTHER AWAY AND THE GRADIENT WEAKENS MORE.

MON-TUE...FLOW SHIFTS TO THE NORTH THEN NORTHEAST BEHIND THE
WEAKENING FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA. WINDS 10
TO 15 KNOTS OR LESS.

WED-FRI...SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WED AND THU IN THE WARM SECTOR OF
ADVANCING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST LATE FRI
WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  70  82  69  79 /  20  20  30  70
MCO  73  85  69  83 /  30  40  30  70
MLB  72  83  71  80 /  40  20  30  70
VRB  73  85  71  81 /  30  20  40  70
LEE  72  85  70  82 /  30  50  30  70
SFB  72  85  69  81 /  30  40  30  70
ORL  73  85  70  82 /  30  40  30  70
FPR  73  86  69  82 /  20  20  40  70

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...SHARP
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...WIMMER




000
FXUS62 KMLB 261931
AFDMLB

DDHHMM 261928
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
330 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT-TONIGHT...IMPULSES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE QUICKLY WEST TO
EAST IN THE DEEP FLAT MID LEVEL FLOW. SHALLOW DEPTH OF MOISTURE
SUGGESTS SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS AND SHOWERS THROUGH LATE EVENING
THEN ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS FROM MID LEVEL CLOUDS. LOWS IN THE LOW
AND MID 70S.

MON-MON NIGHT...TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS ARE INDICATING VERY DEEP
LAYERED MOISTURE FIELD...THROUGH 200MB...WHICH WOULD INDICATE BETTER
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. WEAK BOUNDARY SETTLES OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.
WESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY SHIFTS TO THE NORTH AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

TUE-WED...PLUME OF MOISTURE AHEAD A GULF OF MEXICO LOW MOVING TO THE
NORTHEAST STREAMS NORTHEAST OVER FLORIDA. WARM FRONT MOVING
NORTHWARD OVER FLORIDA PLACES THE STATE IN THE WARM SECTION TUE AND
WED. THE COMBINATION OF BETTER MOISTURE AND STRONGER MID LEVEL
IMPULSES MOVING OVERHEAD RESULTS IN MUCH HIGHER RAIN CHANCES AROUND
70 PERCENT WITH CHANCE OF STORMS. HIGHS IN THE LOW AND MID 80S.

THU-SAT...THREAT FOR SHOWERS LINGERS INTO THU (MAINLY EARLY) AS A
WEAK SECONDARY TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WITH
DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL TAKE HOLD THROUGH FRI/FRI NIGHT.
WINDS VEER ONSHORE NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING NORTH OF
FL ELONGATES EWD. COULD SEE A SMALL COASTAL SHOWERS THREAT DEVELOP
BUT RATHER EARLY TO GAUGE THE STRENGTH OF EASTERLIES THIS FAR OUT.

.AVIATION...VFR PREVAILING. TEMPO MVFR IN VC OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS MAINLY KVRB NORTH THIS EVENING.

.MARINE...

TONIGHT...OFFSHORE FLOW TONIGHT AS A WEAK FRONT/TROUGH MOVED
SOUTHWARD OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. BRIEF SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE
CAUTION TONIGHT THEN DROPPING TO 15 KNOTS OR LESS AS THE PARENT LOW
OFF NEW ENGLAND LIFTS FURTHER AWAY AND THE GRADIENT WEAKENS MORE.

MON-TUE...FLOW SHIFTS TO THE NORTH THEN NORTHEAST BEHIND THE
WEAKENING FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA. WINDS 10
TO 15 KNOTS OR LESS.

WED-FRI...SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WED AND THU IN THE WARM SECTOR OF
ADVANCING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST LATE FRI
WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  70  82  69  79 /  20  20  30  70
MCO  73  85  69  83 /  30  40  30  70
MLB  72  83  71  80 /  40  20  30  70
VRB  73  85  71  81 /  30  20  40  70
LEE  72  85  70  82 /  30  50  30  70
SFB  72  85  69  81 /  30  40  30  70
ORL  73  85  70  82 /  30  40  30  70
FPR  73  86  69  82 /  20  20  40  70

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...SHARP
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...WIMMER





000
FXUS62 KMLB 261931
AFDMLB

DDHHMM 261928
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
330 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT-TONIGHT...IMPULSES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE QUICKLY WEST TO
EAST IN THE DEEP FLAT MID LEVEL FLOW. SHALLOW DEPTH OF MOISTURE
SUGGESTS SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS AND SHOWERS THROUGH LATE EVENING
THEN ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS FROM MID LEVEL CLOUDS. LOWS IN THE LOW
AND MID 70S.

MON-MON NIGHT...TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS ARE INDICATING VERY DEEP
LAYERED MOISTURE FIELD...THROUGH 200MB...WHICH WOULD INDICATE BETTER
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. WEAK BOUNDARY SETTLES OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.
WESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY SHIFTS TO THE NORTH AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

TUE-WED...PLUME OF MOISTURE AHEAD A GULF OF MEXICO LOW MOVING TO THE
NORTHEAST STREAMS NORTHEAST OVER FLORIDA. WARM FRONT MOVING
NORTHWARD OVER FLORIDA PLACES THE STATE IN THE WARM SECTION TUE AND
WED. THE COMBINATION OF BETTER MOISTURE AND STRONGER MID LEVEL
IMPULSES MOVING OVERHEAD RESULTS IN MUCH HIGHER RAIN CHANCES AROUND
70 PERCENT WITH CHANCE OF STORMS. HIGHS IN THE LOW AND MID 80S.

THU-SAT...THREAT FOR SHOWERS LINGERS INTO THU (MAINLY EARLY) AS A
WEAK SECONDARY TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WITH
DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL TAKE HOLD THROUGH FRI/FRI NIGHT.
WINDS VEER ONSHORE NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING NORTH OF
FL ELONGATES EWD. COULD SEE A SMALL COASTAL SHOWERS THREAT DEVELOP
BUT RATHER EARLY TO GAUGE THE STRENGTH OF EASTERLIES THIS FAR OUT.

.AVIATION...VFR PREVAILING. TEMPO MVFR IN VC OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS MAINLY KVRB NORTH THIS EVENING.

.MARINE...

TONIGHT...OFFSHORE FLOW TONIGHT AS A WEAK FRONT/TROUGH MOVED
SOUTHWARD OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. BRIEF SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE
CAUTION TONIGHT THEN DROPPING TO 15 KNOTS OR LESS AS THE PARENT LOW
OFF NEW ENGLAND LIFTS FURTHER AWAY AND THE GRADIENT WEAKENS MORE.

MON-TUE...FLOW SHIFTS TO THE NORTH THEN NORTHEAST BEHIND THE
WEAKENING FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA. WINDS 10
TO 15 KNOTS OR LESS.

WED-FRI...SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WED AND THU IN THE WARM SECTOR OF
ADVANCING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST LATE FRI
WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  70  82  69  79 /  20  20  30  70
MCO  73  85  69  83 /  30  40  30  70
MLB  72  83  71  80 /  40  20  30  70
VRB  73  85  71  81 /  30  20  40  70
LEE  72  85  70  82 /  30  50  30  70
SFB  72  85  69  81 /  30  40  30  70
ORL  73  85  70  82 /  30  40  30  70
FPR  73  86  69  82 /  20  20  40  70

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...SHARP
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...WIMMER





000
FXUS62 KMLB 261931 CCA
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
330 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT-TONIGHT...IMPULSES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE QUICKLY WEST TO
EAST IN THE DEEP FLAT MID LEVEL FLOW. SHALLOW DEPTH OF MOISTURE
SUGGESTS SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS AND SHOWERS THROUGH LATE EVENING
THEN ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS FROM MID LEVEL CLOUDS. LOWS IN THE LOW
AND MID 70S.

MON-MON NIGHT...TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS ARE INDICATING VERY DEEP
LAYERED MOISTURE FIELD...THROUGH 200MB...WHICH WOULD INDICATE BETTER
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. WEAK BOUNDARY SETTLES OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.
WESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY SHIFTS TO THE NORTH AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

TUE-WED...PLUME OF MOISTURE AHEAD A GULF OF MEXICO LOW MOVING TO THE
NORTHEAST STREAMS NORTHEAST OVER FLORIDA. WARM FRONT MOVING
NORTHWARD OVER FLORIDA PLACES THE STATE IN THE WARM SECTION TUE AND
WED. THE COMBINATION OF BETTER MOISTURE AND STRONGER MID LEVEL
IMPULSES MOVING OVERHEAD RESULTS IN MUCH HIGHER RAIN CHANCES AROUND
70 PERCENT WITH CHANCE OF STORMS. HIGHS IN THE LOW AND MID 80S.

THU-SAT...THREAT FOR SHOWERS LINGERS INTO THU (MAINLY EARLY) AS A
WEAK SECONDARY TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WITH
DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL TAKE HOLD THROUGH FRI/FRI NIGHT.
WINDS VEER ONSHORE NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING NORTH OF
FL ELONGATES EWD. COULD SEE A SMALL COASTAL SHOWERS THREAT DEVELOP
BUT RATHER EARLY TO GAUGE THE STRENGTH OF EASTERLIES THIS FAR OUT.

.AVIATION...VFR PREVAILING. TEMPO MVFR IN VC OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS MAINLY KVRB NORTH THIS EVENING.

.MARINE...

TONIGHT...OFFSHORE FLOW TONIGHT AS A WEAK FRONT/TROUGH MOVED
SOUTHWARD OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. BRIEF SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE
CAUTION TONIGHT THEN DROPPING TO 15 KNOTS OR LESS AS THE PARENT LOW
OFF NEW ENGLAND LIFTS FURTHER AWAY AND THE GRADIENT WEAKENS MORE.

MON-TUE...FLOW SHIFTS TO THE NORTH THEN NORTHEAST BEHIND THE
WEAKENING FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA. WINDS 10
TO 15 KNOTS OR LESS.

WED-FRI...SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WED AND THU IN THE WARM SECTOR OF
ADVANCING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST LATE FRI
WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  70  82  69  79 /  20  20  30  70
MCO  73  85  69  83 /  30  40  30  70
MLB  72  83  71  80 /  40  20  30  70
VRB  73  85  71  81 /  30  20  40  70
LEE  72  85  70  82 /  30  50  30  70
SFB  72  85  69  81 /  30  40  30  70
ORL  73  85  70  82 /  30  40  30  70
FPR  73  86  69  82 /  20  20  40  70

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...SHARP
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...WIMMER





000
FXUS62 KMLB 261931 CCA
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
330 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT-TONIGHT...IMPULSES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE QUICKLY WEST TO
EAST IN THE DEEP FLAT MID LEVEL FLOW. SHALLOW DEPTH OF MOISTURE
SUGGESTS SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS AND SHOWERS THROUGH LATE EVENING
THEN ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS FROM MID LEVEL CLOUDS. LOWS IN THE LOW
AND MID 70S.

MON-MON NIGHT...TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS ARE INDICATING VERY DEEP
LAYERED MOISTURE FIELD...THROUGH 200MB...WHICH WOULD INDICATE BETTER
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. WEAK BOUNDARY SETTLES OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.
WESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY SHIFTS TO THE NORTH AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

TUE-WED...PLUME OF MOISTURE AHEAD A GULF OF MEXICO LOW MOVING TO THE
NORTHEAST STREAMS NORTHEAST OVER FLORIDA. WARM FRONT MOVING
NORTHWARD OVER FLORIDA PLACES THE STATE IN THE WARM SECTION TUE AND
WED. THE COMBINATION OF BETTER MOISTURE AND STRONGER MID LEVEL
IMPULSES MOVING OVERHEAD RESULTS IN MUCH HIGHER RAIN CHANCES AROUND
70 PERCENT WITH CHANCE OF STORMS. HIGHS IN THE LOW AND MID 80S.

THU-SAT...THREAT FOR SHOWERS LINGERS INTO THU (MAINLY EARLY) AS A
WEAK SECONDARY TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WITH
DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL TAKE HOLD THROUGH FRI/FRI NIGHT.
WINDS VEER ONSHORE NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING NORTH OF
FL ELONGATES EWD. COULD SEE A SMALL COASTAL SHOWERS THREAT DEVELOP
BUT RATHER EARLY TO GAUGE THE STRENGTH OF EASTERLIES THIS FAR OUT.

.AVIATION...VFR PREVAILING. TEMPO MVFR IN VC OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS MAINLY KVRB NORTH THIS EVENING.

.MARINE...

TONIGHT...OFFSHORE FLOW TONIGHT AS A WEAK FRONT/TROUGH MOVED
SOUTHWARD OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. BRIEF SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE
CAUTION TONIGHT THEN DROPPING TO 15 KNOTS OR LESS AS THE PARENT LOW
OFF NEW ENGLAND LIFTS FURTHER AWAY AND THE GRADIENT WEAKENS MORE.

MON-TUE...FLOW SHIFTS TO THE NORTH THEN NORTHEAST BEHIND THE
WEAKENING FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA. WINDS 10
TO 15 KNOTS OR LESS.

WED-FRI...SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WED AND THU IN THE WARM SECTOR OF
ADVANCING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST LATE FRI
WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  70  82  69  79 /  20  20  30  70
MCO  73  85  69  83 /  30  40  30  70
MLB  72  83  71  80 /  40  20  30  70
VRB  73  85  71  81 /  30  20  40  70
LEE  72  85  70  82 /  30  50  30  70
SFB  72  85  69  81 /  30  40  30  70
ORL  73  85  70  82 /  30  40  30  70
FPR  73  86  69  82 /  20  20  40  70

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...SHARP
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...WIMMER




000
FXUS62 KMLB 261402 CCA
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
10 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT-THIS AFTERNOON...MORNING FLORIDA UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS AND THE
NASA VERTICAL WIND PROFILER(S) SCATTERED ABOUT THE MELBOURNE AREA
ALL SHOWED A STRONG WIND PROFILE OF 30 KNOTS OR MORE FROM JUST OFF
THE SURFACE THROUGH THE ENTIRE COLUMN. IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH HEATING
TO MIX THESE STRONG WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE. WRESTLING WITH TO GO
WITH WINDY FOR THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE AXIS OF THE 250MB JET CORE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND MID LEVEL/500MB IMPULSES MOVING RAPIDLY WEST
TO EAST IN THE FLAT 500MB FLOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND FLORIDA SHOULD
KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
MORE SUN TO THE SOUTH COMBINED WITH THE STRONG LOW WESTERLY FLOW
WILL TRIGGER FAST WEST TO EAST MOVING DIURNAL CUMULUS. NO EAST COAST
SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. IF OUTDOORS WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE TO
THE WEST FOR FAST MOVING WEATHER TODAY.

THE ZONE UPDATE WILL LOOK AT SKIES AND WINDS FOR THE AFTERNOON.


.AVIATION...
MAY NEED TO BUMP UP AFTERNOON WINDS.

ISOLD SHRA POSSIBLE NORTH OF KISM-KEVB AFTER 12Z...BECOMING WDLY SCT
INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH ISOLD TSRA. ISOLD SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION AFTER 17Z. WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 12-17KTS
THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 25KTS AT TIMES OUTSIDE OF SHRA/TSRA.
GUSTINESS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET...BUT SUSTAINED WINDS WILL
REMAIN 10-15KTS THIS EVENING.

MARINE... WINDS DROP OFF AS THE GRADIENT WEAKENS. WILL GO WITH SMALL
CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION OFFSHORE SEBASTIAN INLET NORTH FOR THE
AFTERNOON.

.FIRE WEATHER...MORNING UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS ALONG WITH THE NASA
VERTICAL WIND PROFILERS SCATTERED ABOUT BREVARD COUNTY AND THE
LATEST HRRR3 SURFACE AND 1000MB WIND FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON
VALIDATE THE PREVIOUS FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION.

PREVIOUS FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION...GUSTY LOW LEVEL WEST WINDS AROUND
15 MPH AND TRANSPORT WINDS APPROACHING 25 TO 30 MPH LATE THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON WILL LEAD TO EXCELLENT DISPERSIONS ACROSS THE
REGION. THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE
UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S...HOWEVER ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS
FOR RH VALUES TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. ERC VALUES
GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE LOW 20S...THEREFORE NO HEADLINES WILL BE IN
PLACE THOUGH ANY ONGOING OR NEW FIRES MAY EXPERIENCE CONTROL
PROBLEMS DUE TO THE GUSTY WINDS.

.CLIMATE...

RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY...SUN APRIL 26...

DAYTONA BEACH...93F
ORLANDO.........98F
MELBOURNE.......92F
VERO
BEACH......95F

&&

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

TODAY-TONIGHT...MCS THAT PROPAGATED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA
LATE LAST EVENING RAPIDLY FELL APART AS IT TRAVERSED THE PENINSULA
BRINGING LITTLE MORE THAN LIGHT RAIN TO FAR NORTHERN LAKE AND
VOLUSIA COUNTIES AS IT RACED OFFSHORE.

THE DRIVING SYNOPTIC FEATURE REMAIN A BROAD SURFACE LOW/TROUGH
STRETCHED OUT ACROSS THE TN VALLEY INTO THE CAROLINAS WITH THE
CENTER SLOWLY MOVING OFFSHORE INTO THE ATLANTIC THIS MORNING. TROUGH
AXIS/FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THIS FEATURE WILL DROP
INTO NORTH FLORIDA THIS MORNING AND CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE
AFTERNOON.

LAST EVENING`S SOUNDINGS SHOW A FAIRLY DECENT DRY AIR LAYER REMAINS
BETWEEN 850-500MB. WHILE MOISTURE POOLED ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL
MODIFY THIS SOMEWHAT...MOST MODELS ARE NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSED WITH
THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION AND HAVE TRENDED LOWER WITH
POPS...NOW MORE ALONG THE LINES OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT FOR TODAY. THIS
SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE TREND OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS OF COVERAGE
WELL BELOW WHAT MODELS HAVE SHOWN.

ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TOWARDS SUNRISE ACROSS NORTHERN
LAKE/VOLUSIA AS THE TROUGH DROPS IN...BECOMING WIDELY SCATTERED INTO
THE AFTERNOON AS TROUGH PROGRESSES SOUTHWARDS. ANY SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL MOVE QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST WITH STEERING FLOW A
ROBUST 40 TO 45 KNOTS.

OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PREVENT FORMATION OF EAST COAST SEA BREEZE AND
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY APPROACH RECORDS ALONG THE COAST DEPENDING
ON THE ONSET OF HEAVIER CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S OVER THE INTERIOR AND LOW 90S ALONG THE COAST.

WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE REGION ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOWS IN THE 70S.

MON-WED...A WEAK BACK DOOR FRONT WILL OOZE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NRN
PENINSULA MON...STALLING SOMEWHERE BETWEEN KSGJ AND KXMR THRU EARLY
TUE. A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL U.S. BEGINS
TO OPEN UP AS IT REACHES THE TN/OH VALLEYS WED. AS THIS OCCURS...A
SURFACE LOW FORMS OVER THE NWRN GULF AND SLIDES EWD TO NEAR MOBILE
BAY TUE EVENING AND THEN ENE ACROSS SRN GA AND INTO THE ATLC. THE
STALLED FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF CENTRAL FL TUE NIGHT WITH THE LOW
SWINGING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE PENINSULA ON WEDNESDAY. RAIN
CHCS WILL INCREASE ON MONDAY (40-50) AND EVEN MORE SO TUE THROUGH
WED (60). OF NOTE IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS THAT THE GFS TRENDED
PRETTY FIRMLY IN THE DIRECTION OF THE STRONGER ECM SOLUTION...WHICH
NECESSITATED LOWERING POPS STARTING WED NIGHT.

MAXES IN THE M-U80S ON MON FALL BACK INTO THE U70S-L80S TUE OVER ALL
BUT THE FAR SRN CWA TUE AS CLOUDS/PRECIP ASCD WITH THE STALLED BDRY
SETTLE OVER THE AREA. A LITTLE WARMER WED WITH INCREASING SW WINDS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND NMRS SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
TAPERING OFF FROM NW-SE WED NIGHT.

THU-SAT...THREAT FOR SHOWERS LINGERS INTO THU (MAINLY EARLY) AS A
WEAK SECONDARY TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WITH
DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL TAKE HOLD THROUGH FRI/FRI NIGHT.
WINDS VEER ONSHORE NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING NORTH OF
FL ELONGATES EWD. COULD SEE A SMALL COASTAL SHOWERS THREAT DEVELOP
BUT RATHER EARLY TO GAUGE THE STRENGTH OF EASTERLIES THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...AREAS OF MVFR FOG/STRATUS OVER NORTHERN TERMINALS
THROUGH 13Z THIS MORNING. ISOLD SHRA POSSIBLE NORTH OF KISM-KEVB
AFTER 12Z...BECOMING WDLY SCT INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH ISOLD TSRA.
ISOLD SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION AFTER 17Z.
WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 12-17KTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO
25KTS AT TIMES OUTSIDE OF SHRA/TSRA. GUSTINESS WILL DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET...BUT SUSTAINED WINDS WILL REMAIN 10-15KTS THIS EVENING.

&&

TODAY-TONIGHT...MODERATE WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES THIS MORNING
WITH BUOY 41009 REPORTING 15-20KTS AND BUOY 41010 20-25KTS...WHICH
SUPPORTS THE ONGOING SCA FOR WINDS IN PLACE FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS
NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET THIS MORNING. GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY
LATER THIS MORNING AS SURFACE LOW MOVES FURTHER EAST...WITH WINDS
BECOMING MORE WESTERLY AND EASING TO AROUND 15KTS. WINDS INCREASE
OUT OF THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AGAIN LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS
STRONGER FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE LOCAL ATLANTIC. SEAS 2-3FT
NEARSHORE AND 4-5FT OFFSHORE THIS MORNING... BRIEFLY SUBSIDING TO 2-
3FT THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE NEXT WESTERLY WIND PUSH DRIVES SEAS BACK
UP LATE TONIGHT. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP DOMINANT PERIODS SHORT AND
CHOPPY.

MON-THU..."BACK DOOR" FRONTAL BDRY SAGS INTO THE LOCAL ATLC WATERS
DURING THE DAY...WITH STOUT WRLY FLOW BEING DISPLACED SWD/WEAKENING
BY THE NRLY WIND SHIFT OOZING INTO THE WATERS FROM THE NORTH. FAIRLY
SLACK WINDS VEER QUICKLY BACK AROUND TO NE AND EAST OVERNIGHT WITH
FLOW INCREASING SOME OUT OF THE E-ESE TUE AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE SERN U.S SLIDES OFFSHORE. WINDS VEER TO S-SW WED AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE NERN GOMEX TO OFFSHORE THE CAROLINAS BY WED
NIGHT. WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST TO 20-25KT LATE WED NIGHT INTO
THU BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE...THOUGH OFFSHORE COMPONENT WILL LIKELY
KEEP OFFSHORE SEAS BELOW 7FT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  91  72  80  66 /  40  30  30  40
MCO  90  73  86  67 /  30  30  50  30
MLB  93  74  84  68 /  20  30  40  30
VRB  93  73  84  68 /  20  20  40  20
LEE  88  72  83  66 /  40  30  50  40
SFB  89  74  84  66 /  30  30  50  30
ORL  89  75  85  68 /  30  30  50  30
FPR  93  72  86  68 /  20  20  40  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-
     VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.

&&

$$

LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...SHARP
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...WIMMER




000
FXUS62 KMLB 261402 CCA
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
10 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT-THIS AFTERNOON...MORNING FLORIDA UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS AND THE
NASA VERTICAL WIND PROFILER(S) SCATTERED ABOUT THE MELBOURNE AREA
ALL SHOWED A STRONG WIND PROFILE OF 30 KNOTS OR MORE FROM JUST OFF
THE SURFACE THROUGH THE ENTIRE COLUMN. IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH HEATING
TO MIX THESE STRONG WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE. WRESTLING WITH TO GO
WITH WINDY FOR THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE AXIS OF THE 250MB JET CORE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND MID LEVEL/500MB IMPULSES MOVING RAPIDLY WEST
TO EAST IN THE FLAT 500MB FLOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND FLORIDA SHOULD
KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
MORE SUN TO THE SOUTH COMBINED WITH THE STRONG LOW WESTERLY FLOW
WILL TRIGGER FAST WEST TO EAST MOVING DIURNAL CUMULUS. NO EAST COAST
SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. IF OUTDOORS WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE TO
THE WEST FOR FAST MOVING WEATHER TODAY.

THE ZONE UPDATE WILL LOOK AT SKIES AND WINDS FOR THE AFTERNOON.


.AVIATION...
MAY NEED TO BUMP UP AFTERNOON WINDS.

ISOLD SHRA POSSIBLE NORTH OF KISM-KEVB AFTER 12Z...BECOMING WDLY SCT
INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH ISOLD TSRA. ISOLD SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION AFTER 17Z. WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 12-17KTS
THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 25KTS AT TIMES OUTSIDE OF SHRA/TSRA.
GUSTINESS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET...BUT SUSTAINED WINDS WILL
REMAIN 10-15KTS THIS EVENING.

MARINE... WINDS DROP OFF AS THE GRADIENT WEAKENS. WILL GO WITH SMALL
CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION OFFSHORE SEBASTIAN INLET NORTH FOR THE
AFTERNOON.

.FIRE WEATHER...MORNING UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS ALONG WITH THE NASA
VERTICAL WIND PROFILERS SCATTERED ABOUT BREVARD COUNTY AND THE
LATEST HRRR3 SURFACE AND 1000MB WIND FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON
VALIDATE THE PREVIOUS FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION.

PREVIOUS FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION...GUSTY LOW LEVEL WEST WINDS AROUND
15 MPH AND TRANSPORT WINDS APPROACHING 25 TO 30 MPH LATE THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON WILL LEAD TO EXCELLENT DISPERSIONS ACROSS THE
REGION. THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE
UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S...HOWEVER ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS
FOR RH VALUES TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. ERC VALUES
GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE LOW 20S...THEREFORE NO HEADLINES WILL BE IN
PLACE THOUGH ANY ONGOING OR NEW FIRES MAY EXPERIENCE CONTROL
PROBLEMS DUE TO THE GUSTY WINDS.

.CLIMATE...

RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY...SUN APRIL 26...

DAYTONA BEACH...93F
ORLANDO.........98F
MELBOURNE.......92F
VERO
BEACH......95F

&&

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

TODAY-TONIGHT...MCS THAT PROPAGATED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA
LATE LAST EVENING RAPIDLY FELL APART AS IT TRAVERSED THE PENINSULA
BRINGING LITTLE MORE THAN LIGHT RAIN TO FAR NORTHERN LAKE AND
VOLUSIA COUNTIES AS IT RACED OFFSHORE.

THE DRIVING SYNOPTIC FEATURE REMAIN A BROAD SURFACE LOW/TROUGH
STRETCHED OUT ACROSS THE TN VALLEY INTO THE CAROLINAS WITH THE
CENTER SLOWLY MOVING OFFSHORE INTO THE ATLANTIC THIS MORNING. TROUGH
AXIS/FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THIS FEATURE WILL DROP
INTO NORTH FLORIDA THIS MORNING AND CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE
AFTERNOON.

LAST EVENING`S SOUNDINGS SHOW A FAIRLY DECENT DRY AIR LAYER REMAINS
BETWEEN 850-500MB. WHILE MOISTURE POOLED ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL
MODIFY THIS SOMEWHAT...MOST MODELS ARE NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSED WITH
THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION AND HAVE TRENDED LOWER WITH
POPS...NOW MORE ALONG THE LINES OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT FOR TODAY. THIS
SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE TREND OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS OF COVERAGE
WELL BELOW WHAT MODELS HAVE SHOWN.

ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TOWARDS SUNRISE ACROSS NORTHERN
LAKE/VOLUSIA AS THE TROUGH DROPS IN...BECOMING WIDELY SCATTERED INTO
THE AFTERNOON AS TROUGH PROGRESSES SOUTHWARDS. ANY SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL MOVE QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST WITH STEERING FLOW A
ROBUST 40 TO 45 KNOTS.

OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PREVENT FORMATION OF EAST COAST SEA BREEZE AND
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY APPROACH RECORDS ALONG THE COAST DEPENDING
ON THE ONSET OF HEAVIER CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S OVER THE INTERIOR AND LOW 90S ALONG THE COAST.

WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE REGION ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOWS IN THE 70S.

MON-WED...A WEAK BACK DOOR FRONT WILL OOZE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NRN
PENINSULA MON...STALLING SOMEWHERE BETWEEN KSGJ AND KXMR THRU EARLY
TUE. A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL U.S. BEGINS
TO OPEN UP AS IT REACHES THE TN/OH VALLEYS WED. AS THIS OCCURS...A
SURFACE LOW FORMS OVER THE NWRN GULF AND SLIDES EWD TO NEAR MOBILE
BAY TUE EVENING AND THEN ENE ACROSS SRN GA AND INTO THE ATLC. THE
STALLED FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF CENTRAL FL TUE NIGHT WITH THE LOW
SWINGING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE PENINSULA ON WEDNESDAY. RAIN
CHCS WILL INCREASE ON MONDAY (40-50) AND EVEN MORE SO TUE THROUGH
WED (60). OF NOTE IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS THAT THE GFS TRENDED
PRETTY FIRMLY IN THE DIRECTION OF THE STRONGER ECM SOLUTION...WHICH
NECESSITATED LOWERING POPS STARTING WED NIGHT.

MAXES IN THE M-U80S ON MON FALL BACK INTO THE U70S-L80S TUE OVER ALL
BUT THE FAR SRN CWA TUE AS CLOUDS/PRECIP ASCD WITH THE STALLED BDRY
SETTLE OVER THE AREA. A LITTLE WARMER WED WITH INCREASING SW WINDS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND NMRS SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
TAPERING OFF FROM NW-SE WED NIGHT.

THU-SAT...THREAT FOR SHOWERS LINGERS INTO THU (MAINLY EARLY) AS A
WEAK SECONDARY TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WITH
DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL TAKE HOLD THROUGH FRI/FRI NIGHT.
WINDS VEER ONSHORE NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING NORTH OF
FL ELONGATES EWD. COULD SEE A SMALL COASTAL SHOWERS THREAT DEVELOP
BUT RATHER EARLY TO GAUGE THE STRENGTH OF EASTERLIES THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...AREAS OF MVFR FOG/STRATUS OVER NORTHERN TERMINALS
THROUGH 13Z THIS MORNING. ISOLD SHRA POSSIBLE NORTH OF KISM-KEVB
AFTER 12Z...BECOMING WDLY SCT INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH ISOLD TSRA.
ISOLD SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION AFTER 17Z.
WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 12-17KTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO
25KTS AT TIMES OUTSIDE OF SHRA/TSRA. GUSTINESS WILL DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET...BUT SUSTAINED WINDS WILL REMAIN 10-15KTS THIS EVENING.

&&

TODAY-TONIGHT...MODERATE WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES THIS MORNING
WITH BUOY 41009 REPORTING 15-20KTS AND BUOY 41010 20-25KTS...WHICH
SUPPORTS THE ONGOING SCA FOR WINDS IN PLACE FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS
NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET THIS MORNING. GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY
LATER THIS MORNING AS SURFACE LOW MOVES FURTHER EAST...WITH WINDS
BECOMING MORE WESTERLY AND EASING TO AROUND 15KTS. WINDS INCREASE
OUT OF THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AGAIN LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS
STRONGER FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE LOCAL ATLANTIC. SEAS 2-3FT
NEARSHORE AND 4-5FT OFFSHORE THIS MORNING... BRIEFLY SUBSIDING TO 2-
3FT THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE NEXT WESTERLY WIND PUSH DRIVES SEAS BACK
UP LATE TONIGHT. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP DOMINANT PERIODS SHORT AND
CHOPPY.

MON-THU..."BACK DOOR" FRONTAL BDRY SAGS INTO THE LOCAL ATLC WATERS
DURING THE DAY...WITH STOUT WRLY FLOW BEING DISPLACED SWD/WEAKENING
BY THE NRLY WIND SHIFT OOZING INTO THE WATERS FROM THE NORTH. FAIRLY
SLACK WINDS VEER QUICKLY BACK AROUND TO NE AND EAST OVERNIGHT WITH
FLOW INCREASING SOME OUT OF THE E-ESE TUE AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE SERN U.S SLIDES OFFSHORE. WINDS VEER TO S-SW WED AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE NERN GOMEX TO OFFSHORE THE CAROLINAS BY WED
NIGHT. WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST TO 20-25KT LATE WED NIGHT INTO
THU BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE...THOUGH OFFSHORE COMPONENT WILL LIKELY
KEEP OFFSHORE SEAS BELOW 7FT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  91  72  80  66 /  40  30  30  40
MCO  90  73  86  67 /  30  30  50  30
MLB  93  74  84  68 /  20  30  40  30
VRB  93  73  84  68 /  20  20  40  20
LEE  88  72  83  66 /  40  30  50  40
SFB  89  74  84  66 /  30  30  50  30
ORL  89  75  85  68 /  30  30  50  30
FPR  93  72  86  68 /  20  20  40  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-
     VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.

&&

$$

LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...SHARP
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...WIMMER





000
FXUS62 KMLB 261402 CCA
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
10 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT-THIS AFTERNOON...MORNING FLORIDA UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS AND THE
NASA VERTICAL WIND PROFILER(S) SCATTERED ABOUT THE MELBOURNE AREA
ALL SHOWED A STRONG WIND PROFILE OF 30 KNOTS OR MORE FROM JUST OFF
THE SURFACE THROUGH THE ENTIRE COLUMN. IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH HEATING
TO MIX THESE STRONG WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE. WRESTLING WITH TO GO
WITH WINDY FOR THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE AXIS OF THE 250MB JET CORE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND MID LEVEL/500MB IMPULSES MOVING RAPIDLY WEST
TO EAST IN THE FLAT 500MB FLOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND FLORIDA SHOULD
KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
MORE SUN TO THE SOUTH COMBINED WITH THE STRONG LOW WESTERLY FLOW
WILL TRIGGER FAST WEST TO EAST MOVING DIURNAL CUMULUS. NO EAST COAST
SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. IF OUTDOORS WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE TO
THE WEST FOR FAST MOVING WEATHER TODAY.

THE ZONE UPDATE WILL LOOK AT SKIES AND WINDS FOR THE AFTERNOON.


.AVIATION...
MAY NEED TO BUMP UP AFTERNOON WINDS.

ISOLD SHRA POSSIBLE NORTH OF KISM-KEVB AFTER 12Z...BECOMING WDLY SCT
INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH ISOLD TSRA. ISOLD SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION AFTER 17Z. WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 12-17KTS
THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 25KTS AT TIMES OUTSIDE OF SHRA/TSRA.
GUSTINESS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET...BUT SUSTAINED WINDS WILL
REMAIN 10-15KTS THIS EVENING.

MARINE... WINDS DROP OFF AS THE GRADIENT WEAKENS. WILL GO WITH SMALL
CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION OFFSHORE SEBASTIAN INLET NORTH FOR THE
AFTERNOON.

.FIRE WEATHER...MORNING UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS ALONG WITH THE NASA
VERTICAL WIND PROFILERS SCATTERED ABOUT BREVARD COUNTY AND THE
LATEST HRRR3 SURFACE AND 1000MB WIND FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON
VALIDATE THE PREVIOUS FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION.

PREVIOUS FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION...GUSTY LOW LEVEL WEST WINDS AROUND
15 MPH AND TRANSPORT WINDS APPROACHING 25 TO 30 MPH LATE THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON WILL LEAD TO EXCELLENT DISPERSIONS ACROSS THE
REGION. THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE
UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S...HOWEVER ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS
FOR RH VALUES TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. ERC VALUES
GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE LOW 20S...THEREFORE NO HEADLINES WILL BE IN
PLACE THOUGH ANY ONGOING OR NEW FIRES MAY EXPERIENCE CONTROL
PROBLEMS DUE TO THE GUSTY WINDS.

.CLIMATE...

RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY...SUN APRIL 26...

DAYTONA BEACH...93F
ORLANDO.........98F
MELBOURNE.......92F
VERO
BEACH......95F

&&

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

TODAY-TONIGHT...MCS THAT PROPAGATED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA
LATE LAST EVENING RAPIDLY FELL APART AS IT TRAVERSED THE PENINSULA
BRINGING LITTLE MORE THAN LIGHT RAIN TO FAR NORTHERN LAKE AND
VOLUSIA COUNTIES AS IT RACED OFFSHORE.

THE DRIVING SYNOPTIC FEATURE REMAIN A BROAD SURFACE LOW/TROUGH
STRETCHED OUT ACROSS THE TN VALLEY INTO THE CAROLINAS WITH THE
CENTER SLOWLY MOVING OFFSHORE INTO THE ATLANTIC THIS MORNING. TROUGH
AXIS/FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THIS FEATURE WILL DROP
INTO NORTH FLORIDA THIS MORNING AND CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE
AFTERNOON.

LAST EVENING`S SOUNDINGS SHOW A FAIRLY DECENT DRY AIR LAYER REMAINS
BETWEEN 850-500MB. WHILE MOISTURE POOLED ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL
MODIFY THIS SOMEWHAT...MOST MODELS ARE NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSED WITH
THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION AND HAVE TRENDED LOWER WITH
POPS...NOW MORE ALONG THE LINES OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT FOR TODAY. THIS
SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE TREND OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS OF COVERAGE
WELL BELOW WHAT MODELS HAVE SHOWN.

ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TOWARDS SUNRISE ACROSS NORTHERN
LAKE/VOLUSIA AS THE TROUGH DROPS IN...BECOMING WIDELY SCATTERED INTO
THE AFTERNOON AS TROUGH PROGRESSES SOUTHWARDS. ANY SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL MOVE QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST WITH STEERING FLOW A
ROBUST 40 TO 45 KNOTS.

OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PREVENT FORMATION OF EAST COAST SEA BREEZE AND
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY APPROACH RECORDS ALONG THE COAST DEPENDING
ON THE ONSET OF HEAVIER CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S OVER THE INTERIOR AND LOW 90S ALONG THE COAST.

WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE REGION ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOWS IN THE 70S.

MON-WED...A WEAK BACK DOOR FRONT WILL OOZE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NRN
PENINSULA MON...STALLING SOMEWHERE BETWEEN KSGJ AND KXMR THRU EARLY
TUE. A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL U.S. BEGINS
TO OPEN UP AS IT REACHES THE TN/OH VALLEYS WED. AS THIS OCCURS...A
SURFACE LOW FORMS OVER THE NWRN GULF AND SLIDES EWD TO NEAR MOBILE
BAY TUE EVENING AND THEN ENE ACROSS SRN GA AND INTO THE ATLC. THE
STALLED FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF CENTRAL FL TUE NIGHT WITH THE LOW
SWINGING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE PENINSULA ON WEDNESDAY. RAIN
CHCS WILL INCREASE ON MONDAY (40-50) AND EVEN MORE SO TUE THROUGH
WED (60). OF NOTE IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS THAT THE GFS TRENDED
PRETTY FIRMLY IN THE DIRECTION OF THE STRONGER ECM SOLUTION...WHICH
NECESSITATED LOWERING POPS STARTING WED NIGHT.

MAXES IN THE M-U80S ON MON FALL BACK INTO THE U70S-L80S TUE OVER ALL
BUT THE FAR SRN CWA TUE AS CLOUDS/PRECIP ASCD WITH THE STALLED BDRY
SETTLE OVER THE AREA. A LITTLE WARMER WED WITH INCREASING SW WINDS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND NMRS SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
TAPERING OFF FROM NW-SE WED NIGHT.

THU-SAT...THREAT FOR SHOWERS LINGERS INTO THU (MAINLY EARLY) AS A
WEAK SECONDARY TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WITH
DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL TAKE HOLD THROUGH FRI/FRI NIGHT.
WINDS VEER ONSHORE NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING NORTH OF
FL ELONGATES EWD. COULD SEE A SMALL COASTAL SHOWERS THREAT DEVELOP
BUT RATHER EARLY TO GAUGE THE STRENGTH OF EASTERLIES THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...AREAS OF MVFR FOG/STRATUS OVER NORTHERN TERMINALS
THROUGH 13Z THIS MORNING. ISOLD SHRA POSSIBLE NORTH OF KISM-KEVB
AFTER 12Z...BECOMING WDLY SCT INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH ISOLD TSRA.
ISOLD SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION AFTER 17Z.
WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 12-17KTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO
25KTS AT TIMES OUTSIDE OF SHRA/TSRA. GUSTINESS WILL DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET...BUT SUSTAINED WINDS WILL REMAIN 10-15KTS THIS EVENING.

&&

TODAY-TONIGHT...MODERATE WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES THIS MORNING
WITH BUOY 41009 REPORTING 15-20KTS AND BUOY 41010 20-25KTS...WHICH
SUPPORTS THE ONGOING SCA FOR WINDS IN PLACE FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS
NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET THIS MORNING. GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY
LATER THIS MORNING AS SURFACE LOW MOVES FURTHER EAST...WITH WINDS
BECOMING MORE WESTERLY AND EASING TO AROUND 15KTS. WINDS INCREASE
OUT OF THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AGAIN LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS
STRONGER FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE LOCAL ATLANTIC. SEAS 2-3FT
NEARSHORE AND 4-5FT OFFSHORE THIS MORNING... BRIEFLY SUBSIDING TO 2-
3FT THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE NEXT WESTERLY WIND PUSH DRIVES SEAS BACK
UP LATE TONIGHT. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP DOMINANT PERIODS SHORT AND
CHOPPY.

MON-THU..."BACK DOOR" FRONTAL BDRY SAGS INTO THE LOCAL ATLC WATERS
DURING THE DAY...WITH STOUT WRLY FLOW BEING DISPLACED SWD/WEAKENING
BY THE NRLY WIND SHIFT OOZING INTO THE WATERS FROM THE NORTH. FAIRLY
SLACK WINDS VEER QUICKLY BACK AROUND TO NE AND EAST OVERNIGHT WITH
FLOW INCREASING SOME OUT OF THE E-ESE TUE AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE SERN U.S SLIDES OFFSHORE. WINDS VEER TO S-SW WED AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE NERN GOMEX TO OFFSHORE THE CAROLINAS BY WED
NIGHT. WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST TO 20-25KT LATE WED NIGHT INTO
THU BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE...THOUGH OFFSHORE COMPONENT WILL LIKELY
KEEP OFFSHORE SEAS BELOW 7FT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  91  72  80  66 /  40  30  30  40
MCO  90  73  86  67 /  30  30  50  30
MLB  93  74  84  68 /  20  30  40  30
VRB  93  73  84  68 /  20  20  40  20
LEE  88  72  83  66 /  40  30  50  40
SFB  89  74  84  66 /  30  30  50  30
ORL  89  75  85  68 /  30  30  50  30
FPR  93  72  86  68 /  20  20  40  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-
     VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.

&&

$$

LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...SHARP
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...WIMMER




000
FXUS62 KMLB 261402 CCA
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
10 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT-THIS AFTERNOON...MORNING FLORIDA UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS AND THE
NASA VERTICAL WIND PROFILER(S) SCATTERED ABOUT THE MELBOURNE AREA
ALL SHOWED A STRONG WIND PROFILE OF 30 KNOTS OR MORE FROM JUST OFF
THE SURFACE THROUGH THE ENTIRE COLUMN. IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH HEATING
TO MIX THESE STRONG WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE. WRESTLING WITH TO GO
WITH WINDY FOR THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE AXIS OF THE 250MB JET CORE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND MID LEVEL/500MB IMPULSES MOVING RAPIDLY WEST
TO EAST IN THE FLAT 500MB FLOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND FLORIDA SHOULD
KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
MORE SUN TO THE SOUTH COMBINED WITH THE STRONG LOW WESTERLY FLOW
WILL TRIGGER FAST WEST TO EAST MOVING DIURNAL CUMULUS. NO EAST COAST
SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. IF OUTDOORS WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE TO
THE WEST FOR FAST MOVING WEATHER TODAY.

THE ZONE UPDATE WILL LOOK AT SKIES AND WINDS FOR THE AFTERNOON.


.AVIATION...
MAY NEED TO BUMP UP AFTERNOON WINDS.

ISOLD SHRA POSSIBLE NORTH OF KISM-KEVB AFTER 12Z...BECOMING WDLY SCT
INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH ISOLD TSRA. ISOLD SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION AFTER 17Z. WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 12-17KTS
THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 25KTS AT TIMES OUTSIDE OF SHRA/TSRA.
GUSTINESS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET...BUT SUSTAINED WINDS WILL
REMAIN 10-15KTS THIS EVENING.

MARINE... WINDS DROP OFF AS THE GRADIENT WEAKENS. WILL GO WITH SMALL
CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION OFFSHORE SEBASTIAN INLET NORTH FOR THE
AFTERNOON.

.FIRE WEATHER...MORNING UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS ALONG WITH THE NASA
VERTICAL WIND PROFILERS SCATTERED ABOUT BREVARD COUNTY AND THE
LATEST HRRR3 SURFACE AND 1000MB WIND FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON
VALIDATE THE PREVIOUS FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION.

PREVIOUS FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION...GUSTY LOW LEVEL WEST WINDS AROUND
15 MPH AND TRANSPORT WINDS APPROACHING 25 TO 30 MPH LATE THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON WILL LEAD TO EXCELLENT DISPERSIONS ACROSS THE
REGION. THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE
UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S...HOWEVER ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS
FOR RH VALUES TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. ERC VALUES
GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE LOW 20S...THEREFORE NO HEADLINES WILL BE IN
PLACE THOUGH ANY ONGOING OR NEW FIRES MAY EXPERIENCE CONTROL
PROBLEMS DUE TO THE GUSTY WINDS.

.CLIMATE...

RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY...SUN APRIL 26...

DAYTONA BEACH...93F
ORLANDO.........98F
MELBOURNE.......92F
VERO
BEACH......95F

&&

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

TODAY-TONIGHT...MCS THAT PROPAGATED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA
LATE LAST EVENING RAPIDLY FELL APART AS IT TRAVERSED THE PENINSULA
BRINGING LITTLE MORE THAN LIGHT RAIN TO FAR NORTHERN LAKE AND
VOLUSIA COUNTIES AS IT RACED OFFSHORE.

THE DRIVING SYNOPTIC FEATURE REMAIN A BROAD SURFACE LOW/TROUGH
STRETCHED OUT ACROSS THE TN VALLEY INTO THE CAROLINAS WITH THE
CENTER SLOWLY MOVING OFFSHORE INTO THE ATLANTIC THIS MORNING. TROUGH
AXIS/FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THIS FEATURE WILL DROP
INTO NORTH FLORIDA THIS MORNING AND CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE
AFTERNOON.

LAST EVENING`S SOUNDINGS SHOW A FAIRLY DECENT DRY AIR LAYER REMAINS
BETWEEN 850-500MB. WHILE MOISTURE POOLED ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL
MODIFY THIS SOMEWHAT...MOST MODELS ARE NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSED WITH
THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION AND HAVE TRENDED LOWER WITH
POPS...NOW MORE ALONG THE LINES OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT FOR TODAY. THIS
SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE TREND OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS OF COVERAGE
WELL BELOW WHAT MODELS HAVE SHOWN.

ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TOWARDS SUNRISE ACROSS NORTHERN
LAKE/VOLUSIA AS THE TROUGH DROPS IN...BECOMING WIDELY SCATTERED INTO
THE AFTERNOON AS TROUGH PROGRESSES SOUTHWARDS. ANY SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL MOVE QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST WITH STEERING FLOW A
ROBUST 40 TO 45 KNOTS.

OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PREVENT FORMATION OF EAST COAST SEA BREEZE AND
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY APPROACH RECORDS ALONG THE COAST DEPENDING
ON THE ONSET OF HEAVIER CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S OVER THE INTERIOR AND LOW 90S ALONG THE COAST.

WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE REGION ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOWS IN THE 70S.

MON-WED...A WEAK BACK DOOR FRONT WILL OOZE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NRN
PENINSULA MON...STALLING SOMEWHERE BETWEEN KSGJ AND KXMR THRU EARLY
TUE. A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL U.S. BEGINS
TO OPEN UP AS IT REACHES THE TN/OH VALLEYS WED. AS THIS OCCURS...A
SURFACE LOW FORMS OVER THE NWRN GULF AND SLIDES EWD TO NEAR MOBILE
BAY TUE EVENING AND THEN ENE ACROSS SRN GA AND INTO THE ATLC. THE
STALLED FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF CENTRAL FL TUE NIGHT WITH THE LOW
SWINGING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE PENINSULA ON WEDNESDAY. RAIN
CHCS WILL INCREASE ON MONDAY (40-50) AND EVEN MORE SO TUE THROUGH
WED (60). OF NOTE IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS THAT THE GFS TRENDED
PRETTY FIRMLY IN THE DIRECTION OF THE STRONGER ECM SOLUTION...WHICH
NECESSITATED LOWERING POPS STARTING WED NIGHT.

MAXES IN THE M-U80S ON MON FALL BACK INTO THE U70S-L80S TUE OVER ALL
BUT THE FAR SRN CWA TUE AS CLOUDS/PRECIP ASCD WITH THE STALLED BDRY
SETTLE OVER THE AREA. A LITTLE WARMER WED WITH INCREASING SW WINDS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND NMRS SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
TAPERING OFF FROM NW-SE WED NIGHT.

THU-SAT...THREAT FOR SHOWERS LINGERS INTO THU (MAINLY EARLY) AS A
WEAK SECONDARY TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WITH
DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL TAKE HOLD THROUGH FRI/FRI NIGHT.
WINDS VEER ONSHORE NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING NORTH OF
FL ELONGATES EWD. COULD SEE A SMALL COASTAL SHOWERS THREAT DEVELOP
BUT RATHER EARLY TO GAUGE THE STRENGTH OF EASTERLIES THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...AREAS OF MVFR FOG/STRATUS OVER NORTHERN TERMINALS
THROUGH 13Z THIS MORNING. ISOLD SHRA POSSIBLE NORTH OF KISM-KEVB
AFTER 12Z...BECOMING WDLY SCT INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH ISOLD TSRA.
ISOLD SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION AFTER 17Z.
WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 12-17KTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO
25KTS AT TIMES OUTSIDE OF SHRA/TSRA. GUSTINESS WILL DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET...BUT SUSTAINED WINDS WILL REMAIN 10-15KTS THIS EVENING.

&&

TODAY-TONIGHT...MODERATE WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES THIS MORNING
WITH BUOY 41009 REPORTING 15-20KTS AND BUOY 41010 20-25KTS...WHICH
SUPPORTS THE ONGOING SCA FOR WINDS IN PLACE FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS
NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET THIS MORNING. GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY
LATER THIS MORNING AS SURFACE LOW MOVES FURTHER EAST...WITH WINDS
BECOMING MORE WESTERLY AND EASING TO AROUND 15KTS. WINDS INCREASE
OUT OF THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AGAIN LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS
STRONGER FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE LOCAL ATLANTIC. SEAS 2-3FT
NEARSHORE AND 4-5FT OFFSHORE THIS MORNING... BRIEFLY SUBSIDING TO 2-
3FT THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE NEXT WESTERLY WIND PUSH DRIVES SEAS BACK
UP LATE TONIGHT. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP DOMINANT PERIODS SHORT AND
CHOPPY.

MON-THU..."BACK DOOR" FRONTAL BDRY SAGS INTO THE LOCAL ATLC WATERS
DURING THE DAY...WITH STOUT WRLY FLOW BEING DISPLACED SWD/WEAKENING
BY THE NRLY WIND SHIFT OOZING INTO THE WATERS FROM THE NORTH. FAIRLY
SLACK WINDS VEER QUICKLY BACK AROUND TO NE AND EAST OVERNIGHT WITH
FLOW INCREASING SOME OUT OF THE E-ESE TUE AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE SERN U.S SLIDES OFFSHORE. WINDS VEER TO S-SW WED AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE NERN GOMEX TO OFFSHORE THE CAROLINAS BY WED
NIGHT. WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST TO 20-25KT LATE WED NIGHT INTO
THU BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE...THOUGH OFFSHORE COMPONENT WILL LIKELY
KEEP OFFSHORE SEAS BELOW 7FT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  91  72  80  66 /  40  30  30  40
MCO  90  73  86  67 /  30  30  50  30
MLB  93  74  84  68 /  20  30  40  30
VRB  93  73  84  68 /  20  20  40  20
LEE  88  72  83  66 /  40  30  50  40
SFB  89  74  84  66 /  30  30  50  30
ORL  89  75  85  68 /  30  30  50  30
FPR  93  72  86  68 /  20  20  40  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-
     VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.

&&

$$

LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...SHARP
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...WIMMER





000
FXUS62 KMLB 261349
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
945 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT-THIS AFTERNOON...MORNING FLORIDA UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS AND THE
NASA VERTICAL WIND PROFILER(S) SCATTERED ABOUT THE MELBOURNE AREA
ALL SHOWED A STRONG WIND PROFILE OF 30 KNOTS OR MORE FROM JUST OFF
THE SURFACE THROUGH THE ENTIRE COLUMN. IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH HEATING
TO MIX THESE STRONG WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE. WRESTLING WITH TO GO
WITH WINDY FOR THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE AXIS OF THE 250MB JET CORE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND MID LEVEL/500MB IMPULSES MOVING RAPIDLY WEST
TO EAST IN THE FLAT 500MB FLOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND FLORIDA SHOULD
KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
MORE SUN TO THE SOUTH COMBINED WITH THE STRONG LOW WESTERLY FLOW
WILL TRIGGER FAST WEST TO EAST MOVING DIURNAL CUMULUS. NO EAST COAST
SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. IF OUTDOORS WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE TO
THE WEST FOR FAST MOVING WEATHER TODAY.

THE ZONE UPDATE WILL LOOK AT SKIES AND WINDS FOR THE AFTERNOON.


.AVIATION...
MAY NEED TO BUMP UP AFTERNOON WINDS.

ISOLD SHRA POSSIBLE NORTH OF KISM-KEVB AFTER 12Z...BECOMING WDLY SCT
INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH ISOLD TSRA. ISOLD SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION AFTER 17Z. WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 12-17KTS
THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 25KTS AT TIMES OUTSIDE OF SHRA/TSRA.
GUSTINESS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET...BUT SUSTAINED WINDS WILL
REMAIN 10-15KTS THIS EVENING.

MARINE...
WESTERLY WINDS SHOULD QUICKLY INCREASE BEYOND A FEW MILES OF SHORE
AS THE STRONGER WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE MIX DOWN DURING THE
DAY. THE LATEST HRRR3 SURFACE AND 1000MB WINDS REMAIN 20 KNOTS OR
MORE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. WITH THIS IN MIND
WILL PUT A SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS EXERCISE CAUTION FOR WINDS BEYOND A
FEW MILES OF LAND FOR THE NEARSHORE MARINE ZONES CAPE CANAVERAL
NORTH AND EXTEND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FOR
THE OFFSHORE WATERS FOR THE CAPE CANAVERAL NORTH OFFSHORE WATERS.
SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION BOTH NEARSHORE AND
OFFSHORE FOR WINDS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET SOUTH.

.FIRE WEATHER...MORNING UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS ALONG WITH THE NASA
VERTICAL WIND PROFILERS SCATTERED ABOUT BREVARD COUNTY AND THE
LATEST HRRR3 SURFACE AND 1000MB WIND FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON
VALIDATE THE PREVIOUS FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION.

PREVIOUS FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION...GUSTY LOW LEVEL WEST WINDS AROUND
15 MPH AND TRANSPORT WINDS APPROACHING 25 TO 30 MPH LATE THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON WILL LEAD TO EXCELLENT DISPERSIONS ACROSS THE
REGION. THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE
UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S...HOWEVER ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS
FOR RH VALUES TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. ERC VALUES
GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE LOW 20S...THEREFORE NO HEADLINES WILL BE IN
PLACE THOUGH ANY ONGOING OR NEW FIRES MAY EXPERIENCE CONTROL
PROBLEMS DUE TO THE GUSTY WINDS.

.CLIMATE...

RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY...SUN APRIL 26...

DAYTONA BEACH...93F
ORLANDO.........98F
MELBOURNE.......92F
VERO
BEACH......95F

&&

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

TODAY-TONIGHT...MCS THAT PROPAGATED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA
LATE LAST EVENING RAPIDLY FELL APART AS IT TRAVERSED THE PENINSULA
BRINGING LITTLE MORE THAN LIGHT RAIN TO FAR NORTHERN LAKE AND
VOLUSIA COUNTIES AS IT RACED OFFSHORE.

THE DRIVING SYNOPTIC FEATURE REMAIN A BROAD SURFACE LOW/TROUGH
STRETCHED OUT ACROSS THE TN VALLEY INTO THE CAROLINAS WITH THE
CENTER SLOWLY MOVING OFFSHORE INTO THE ATLANTIC THIS MORNING. TROUGH
AXIS/FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THIS FEATURE WILL DROP
INTO NORTH FLORIDA THIS MORNING AND CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE
AFTERNOON.

LAST EVENING`S SOUNDINGS SHOW A FAIRLY DECENT DRY AIR LAYER REMAINS
BETWEEN 850-500MB. WHILE MOISTURE POOLED ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL
MODIFY THIS SOMEWHAT...MOST MODELS ARE NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSED WITH
THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION AND HAVE TRENDED LOWER WITH
POPS...NOW MORE ALONG THE LINES OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT FOR TODAY. THIS
SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE TREND OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS OF COVERAGE
WELL BELOW WHAT MODELS HAVE SHOWN.

ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TOWARDS SUNRISE ACROSS NORTHERN
LAKE/VOLUSIA AS THE TROUGH DROPS IN...BECOMING WIDELY SCATTERED INTO
THE AFTERNOON AS TROUGH PROGRESSES SOUTHWARDS. ANY SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL MOVE QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST WITH STEERING FLOW A
ROBUST 40 TO 45 KNOTS.

OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PREVENT FORMATION OF EAST COAST SEA BREEZE AND
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY APPROACH RECORDS ALONG THE COAST DEPENDING
ON THE ONSET OF HEAVIER CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S OVER THE INTERIOR AND LOW 90S ALONG THE COAST.

WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE REGION ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOWS IN THE 70S.

MON-WED...A WEAK BACK DOOR FRONT WILL OOZE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NRN
PENINSULA MON...STALLING SOMEWHERE BETWEEN KSGJ AND KXMR THRU EARLY
TUE. A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL U.S. BEGINS
TO OPEN UP AS IT REACHES THE TN/OH VALLEYS WED. AS THIS OCCURS...A
SURFACE LOW FORMS OVER THE NWRN GULF AND SLIDES EWD TO NEAR MOBILE
BAY TUE EVENING AND THEN ENE ACROSS SRN GA AND INTO THE ATLC. THE
STALLED FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF CENTRAL FL TUE NIGHT WITH THE LOW
SWINGING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE PENINSULA ON WEDNESDAY. RAIN
CHCS WILL INCREASE ON MONDAY (40-50) AND EVEN MORE SO TUE THROUGH
WED (60). OF NOTE IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS THAT THE GFS TRENDED
PRETTY FIRMLY IN THE DIRECTION OF THE STRONGER ECM SOLUTION...WHICH
NECESSITATED LOWERING POPS STARTING WED NIGHT.

MAXES IN THE M-U80S ON MON FALL BACK INTO THE U70S-L80S TUE OVER ALL
BUT THE FAR SRN CWA TUE AS CLOUDS/PRECIP ASCD WITH THE STALLED BDRY
SETTLE OVER THE AREA. A LITTLE WARMER WED WITH INCREASING SW WINDS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND NMRS SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
TAPERING OFF FROM NW-SE WED NIGHT.

THU-SAT...THREAT FOR SHOWERS LINGERS INTO THU (MAINLY EARLY) AS A
WEAK SECONDARY TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WITH
DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL TAKE HOLD THROUGH FRI/FRI NIGHT.
WINDS VEER ONSHORE NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING NORTH OF
FL ELONGATES EWD. COULD SEE A SMALL COASTAL SHOWERS THREAT DEVELOP
BUT RATHER EARLY TO GAUGE THE STRENGTH OF EASTERLIES THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...AREAS OF MVFR FOG/STRATUS OVER NORTHERN TERMINALS
THROUGH 13Z THIS MORNING. ISOLD SHRA POSSIBLE NORTH OF KISM-KEVB
AFTER 12Z...BECOMING WDLY SCT INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH ISOLD TSRA.
ISOLD SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION AFTER 17Z.
WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 12-17KTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO
25KTS AT TIMES OUTSIDE OF SHRA/TSRA. GUSTINESS WILL DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET...BUT SUSTAINED WINDS WILL REMAIN 10-15KTS THIS EVENING.

&&

TODAY-TONIGHT...MODERATE WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES THIS MORNING
WITH BUOY 41009 REPORTING 15-20KTS AND BUOY 41010 20-25KTS...WHICH
SUPPORTS THE ONGOING SCA FOR WINDS IN PLACE FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS
NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET THIS MORNING. GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY
LATER THIS MORNING AS SURFACE LOW MOVES FURTHER EAST...WITH WINDS
BECOMING MORE WESTERLY AND EASING TO AROUND 15KTS. WINDS INCREASE
OUT OF THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AGAIN LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS
STRONGER FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE LOCAL ATLANTIC. SEAS 2-3FT
NEARSHORE AND 4-5FT OFFSHORE THIS MORNING... BRIEFLY SUBSIDING TO 2-
3FT THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE NEXT WESTERLY WIND PUSH DRIVES SEAS BACK
UP LATE TONIGHT. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP DOMINANT PERIODS SHORT AND
CHOPPY.

MON-THU..."BACK DOOR" FRONTAL BDRY SAGS INTO THE LOCAL ATLC WATERS
DURING THE DAY...WITH STOUT WRLY FLOW BEING DISPLACED SWD/WEAKENING
BY THE NRLY WIND SHIFT OOZING INTO THE WATERS FROM THE NORTH. FAIRLY
SLACK WINDS VEER QUICKLY BACK AROUND TO NE AND EAST OVERNIGHT WITH
FLOW INCREASING SOME OUT OF THE E-ESE TUE AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE SERN U.S SLIDES OFFSHORE. WINDS VEER TO S-SW WED AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE NERN GOMEX TO OFFSHORE THE CAROLINAS BY WED
NIGHT. WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST TO 20-25KT LATE WED NIGHT INTO
THU BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE...THOUGH OFFSHORE COMPONENT WILL LIKELY
KEEP OFFSHORE SEAS BELOW 7FT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  91  72  80  66 /  40  30  30  40
MCO  90  73  86  67 /  30  30  50  30
MLB  93  74  84  68 /  20  30  40  30
VRB  93  73  84  68 /  20  20  40  20
LEE  88  72  83  66 /  40  30  50  40
SFB  89  74  84  66 /  30  30  50  30
ORL  89  75  85  68 /  30  30  50  30
FPR  93  72  86  68 /  20  20  40  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-
     VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.

&&

$$

LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...SHARP
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...WIMMER




000
FXUS62 KMLB 261349
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
945 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT-THIS AFTERNOON...MORNING FLORIDA UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS AND THE
NASA VERTICAL WIND PROFILER(S) SCATTERED ABOUT THE MELBOURNE AREA
ALL SHOWED A STRONG WIND PROFILE OF 30 KNOTS OR MORE FROM JUST OFF
THE SURFACE THROUGH THE ENTIRE COLUMN. IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH HEATING
TO MIX THESE STRONG WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE. WRESTLING WITH TO GO
WITH WINDY FOR THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE AXIS OF THE 250MB JET CORE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND MID LEVEL/500MB IMPULSES MOVING RAPIDLY WEST
TO EAST IN THE FLAT 500MB FLOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND FLORIDA SHOULD
KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
MORE SUN TO THE SOUTH COMBINED WITH THE STRONG LOW WESTERLY FLOW
WILL TRIGGER FAST WEST TO EAST MOVING DIURNAL CUMULUS. NO EAST COAST
SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. IF OUTDOORS WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE TO
THE WEST FOR FAST MOVING WEATHER TODAY.

THE ZONE UPDATE WILL LOOK AT SKIES AND WINDS FOR THE AFTERNOON.


.AVIATION...
MAY NEED TO BUMP UP AFTERNOON WINDS.

ISOLD SHRA POSSIBLE NORTH OF KISM-KEVB AFTER 12Z...BECOMING WDLY SCT
INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH ISOLD TSRA. ISOLD SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION AFTER 17Z. WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 12-17KTS
THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 25KTS AT TIMES OUTSIDE OF SHRA/TSRA.
GUSTINESS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET...BUT SUSTAINED WINDS WILL
REMAIN 10-15KTS THIS EVENING.

MARINE...
WESTERLY WINDS SHOULD QUICKLY INCREASE BEYOND A FEW MILES OF SHORE
AS THE STRONGER WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE MIX DOWN DURING THE
DAY. THE LATEST HRRR3 SURFACE AND 1000MB WINDS REMAIN 20 KNOTS OR
MORE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. WITH THIS IN MIND
WILL PUT A SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS EXERCISE CAUTION FOR WINDS BEYOND A
FEW MILES OF LAND FOR THE NEARSHORE MARINE ZONES CAPE CANAVERAL
NORTH AND EXTEND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FOR
THE OFFSHORE WATERS FOR THE CAPE CANAVERAL NORTH OFFSHORE WATERS.
SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION BOTH NEARSHORE AND
OFFSHORE FOR WINDS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET SOUTH.

.FIRE WEATHER...MORNING UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS ALONG WITH THE NASA
VERTICAL WIND PROFILERS SCATTERED ABOUT BREVARD COUNTY AND THE
LATEST HRRR3 SURFACE AND 1000MB WIND FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON
VALIDATE THE PREVIOUS FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION.

PREVIOUS FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION...GUSTY LOW LEVEL WEST WINDS AROUND
15 MPH AND TRANSPORT WINDS APPROACHING 25 TO 30 MPH LATE THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON WILL LEAD TO EXCELLENT DISPERSIONS ACROSS THE
REGION. THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE
UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S...HOWEVER ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS
FOR RH VALUES TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. ERC VALUES
GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE LOW 20S...THEREFORE NO HEADLINES WILL BE IN
PLACE THOUGH ANY ONGOING OR NEW FIRES MAY EXPERIENCE CONTROL
PROBLEMS DUE TO THE GUSTY WINDS.

.CLIMATE...

RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY...SUN APRIL 26...

DAYTONA BEACH...93F
ORLANDO.........98F
MELBOURNE.......92F
VERO
BEACH......95F

&&

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

TODAY-TONIGHT...MCS THAT PROPAGATED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA
LATE LAST EVENING RAPIDLY FELL APART AS IT TRAVERSED THE PENINSULA
BRINGING LITTLE MORE THAN LIGHT RAIN TO FAR NORTHERN LAKE AND
VOLUSIA COUNTIES AS IT RACED OFFSHORE.

THE DRIVING SYNOPTIC FEATURE REMAIN A BROAD SURFACE LOW/TROUGH
STRETCHED OUT ACROSS THE TN VALLEY INTO THE CAROLINAS WITH THE
CENTER SLOWLY MOVING OFFSHORE INTO THE ATLANTIC THIS MORNING. TROUGH
AXIS/FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THIS FEATURE WILL DROP
INTO NORTH FLORIDA THIS MORNING AND CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE
AFTERNOON.

LAST EVENING`S SOUNDINGS SHOW A FAIRLY DECENT DRY AIR LAYER REMAINS
BETWEEN 850-500MB. WHILE MOISTURE POOLED ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL
MODIFY THIS SOMEWHAT...MOST MODELS ARE NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSED WITH
THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION AND HAVE TRENDED LOWER WITH
POPS...NOW MORE ALONG THE LINES OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT FOR TODAY. THIS
SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE TREND OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS OF COVERAGE
WELL BELOW WHAT MODELS HAVE SHOWN.

ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TOWARDS SUNRISE ACROSS NORTHERN
LAKE/VOLUSIA AS THE TROUGH DROPS IN...BECOMING WIDELY SCATTERED INTO
THE AFTERNOON AS TROUGH PROGRESSES SOUTHWARDS. ANY SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL MOVE QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST WITH STEERING FLOW A
ROBUST 40 TO 45 KNOTS.

OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PREVENT FORMATION OF EAST COAST SEA BREEZE AND
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY APPROACH RECORDS ALONG THE COAST DEPENDING
ON THE ONSET OF HEAVIER CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S OVER THE INTERIOR AND LOW 90S ALONG THE COAST.

WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE REGION ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOWS IN THE 70S.

MON-WED...A WEAK BACK DOOR FRONT WILL OOZE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NRN
PENINSULA MON...STALLING SOMEWHERE BETWEEN KSGJ AND KXMR THRU EARLY
TUE. A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL U.S. BEGINS
TO OPEN UP AS IT REACHES THE TN/OH VALLEYS WED. AS THIS OCCURS...A
SURFACE LOW FORMS OVER THE NWRN GULF AND SLIDES EWD TO NEAR MOBILE
BAY TUE EVENING AND THEN ENE ACROSS SRN GA AND INTO THE ATLC. THE
STALLED FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF CENTRAL FL TUE NIGHT WITH THE LOW
SWINGING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE PENINSULA ON WEDNESDAY. RAIN
CHCS WILL INCREASE ON MONDAY (40-50) AND EVEN MORE SO TUE THROUGH
WED (60). OF NOTE IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS THAT THE GFS TRENDED
PRETTY FIRMLY IN THE DIRECTION OF THE STRONGER ECM SOLUTION...WHICH
NECESSITATED LOWERING POPS STARTING WED NIGHT.

MAXES IN THE M-U80S ON MON FALL BACK INTO THE U70S-L80S TUE OVER ALL
BUT THE FAR SRN CWA TUE AS CLOUDS/PRECIP ASCD WITH THE STALLED BDRY
SETTLE OVER THE AREA. A LITTLE WARMER WED WITH INCREASING SW WINDS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND NMRS SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
TAPERING OFF FROM NW-SE WED NIGHT.

THU-SAT...THREAT FOR SHOWERS LINGERS INTO THU (MAINLY EARLY) AS A
WEAK SECONDARY TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WITH
DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL TAKE HOLD THROUGH FRI/FRI NIGHT.
WINDS VEER ONSHORE NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING NORTH OF
FL ELONGATES EWD. COULD SEE A SMALL COASTAL SHOWERS THREAT DEVELOP
BUT RATHER EARLY TO GAUGE THE STRENGTH OF EASTERLIES THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...AREAS OF MVFR FOG/STRATUS OVER NORTHERN TERMINALS
THROUGH 13Z THIS MORNING. ISOLD SHRA POSSIBLE NORTH OF KISM-KEVB
AFTER 12Z...BECOMING WDLY SCT INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH ISOLD TSRA.
ISOLD SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION AFTER 17Z.
WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 12-17KTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO
25KTS AT TIMES OUTSIDE OF SHRA/TSRA. GUSTINESS WILL DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET...BUT SUSTAINED WINDS WILL REMAIN 10-15KTS THIS EVENING.

&&

TODAY-TONIGHT...MODERATE WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES THIS MORNING
WITH BUOY 41009 REPORTING 15-20KTS AND BUOY 41010 20-25KTS...WHICH
SUPPORTS THE ONGOING SCA FOR WINDS IN PLACE FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS
NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET THIS MORNING. GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY
LATER THIS MORNING AS SURFACE LOW MOVES FURTHER EAST...WITH WINDS
BECOMING MORE WESTERLY AND EASING TO AROUND 15KTS. WINDS INCREASE
OUT OF THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AGAIN LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS
STRONGER FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE LOCAL ATLANTIC. SEAS 2-3FT
NEARSHORE AND 4-5FT OFFSHORE THIS MORNING... BRIEFLY SUBSIDING TO 2-
3FT THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE NEXT WESTERLY WIND PUSH DRIVES SEAS BACK
UP LATE TONIGHT. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP DOMINANT PERIODS SHORT AND
CHOPPY.

MON-THU..."BACK DOOR" FRONTAL BDRY SAGS INTO THE LOCAL ATLC WATERS
DURING THE DAY...WITH STOUT WRLY FLOW BEING DISPLACED SWD/WEAKENING
BY THE NRLY WIND SHIFT OOZING INTO THE WATERS FROM THE NORTH. FAIRLY
SLACK WINDS VEER QUICKLY BACK AROUND TO NE AND EAST OVERNIGHT WITH
FLOW INCREASING SOME OUT OF THE E-ESE TUE AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE SERN U.S SLIDES OFFSHORE. WINDS VEER TO S-SW WED AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE NERN GOMEX TO OFFSHORE THE CAROLINAS BY WED
NIGHT. WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST TO 20-25KT LATE WED NIGHT INTO
THU BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE...THOUGH OFFSHORE COMPONENT WILL LIKELY
KEEP OFFSHORE SEAS BELOW 7FT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  91  72  80  66 /  40  30  30  40
MCO  90  73  86  67 /  30  30  50  30
MLB  93  74  84  68 /  20  30  40  30
VRB  93  73  84  68 /  20  20  40  20
LEE  88  72  83  66 /  40  30  50  40
SFB  89  74  84  66 /  30  30  50  30
ORL  89  75  85  68 /  30  30  50  30
FPR  93  72  86  68 /  20  20  40  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-
     VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.

&&

$$

LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...SHARP
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...WIMMER





000
FXUS62 KMLB 261349
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
945 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT-THIS AFTERNOON...MORNING FLORIDA UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS AND THE
NASA VERTICAL WIND PROFILER(S) SCATTERED ABOUT THE MELBOURNE AREA
ALL SHOWED A STRONG WIND PROFILE OF 30 KNOTS OR MORE FROM JUST OFF
THE SURFACE THROUGH THE ENTIRE COLUMN. IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH HEATING
TO MIX THESE STRONG WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE. WRESTLING WITH TO GO
WITH WINDY FOR THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE AXIS OF THE 250MB JET CORE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND MID LEVEL/500MB IMPULSES MOVING RAPIDLY WEST
TO EAST IN THE FLAT 500MB FLOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND FLORIDA SHOULD
KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
MORE SUN TO THE SOUTH COMBINED WITH THE STRONG LOW WESTERLY FLOW
WILL TRIGGER FAST WEST TO EAST MOVING DIURNAL CUMULUS. NO EAST COAST
SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. IF OUTDOORS WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE TO
THE WEST FOR FAST MOVING WEATHER TODAY.

THE ZONE UPDATE WILL LOOK AT SKIES AND WINDS FOR THE AFTERNOON.


.AVIATION...
MAY NEED TO BUMP UP AFTERNOON WINDS.

ISOLD SHRA POSSIBLE NORTH OF KISM-KEVB AFTER 12Z...BECOMING WDLY SCT
INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH ISOLD TSRA. ISOLD SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION AFTER 17Z. WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 12-17KTS
THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 25KTS AT TIMES OUTSIDE OF SHRA/TSRA.
GUSTINESS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET...BUT SUSTAINED WINDS WILL
REMAIN 10-15KTS THIS EVENING.

MARINE...
WESTERLY WINDS SHOULD QUICKLY INCREASE BEYOND A FEW MILES OF SHORE
AS THE STRONGER WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE MIX DOWN DURING THE
DAY. THE LATEST HRRR3 SURFACE AND 1000MB WINDS REMAIN 20 KNOTS OR
MORE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. WITH THIS IN MIND
WILL PUT A SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS EXERCISE CAUTION FOR WINDS BEYOND A
FEW MILES OF LAND FOR THE NEARSHORE MARINE ZONES CAPE CANAVERAL
NORTH AND EXTEND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FOR
THE OFFSHORE WATERS FOR THE CAPE CANAVERAL NORTH OFFSHORE WATERS.
SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION BOTH NEARSHORE AND
OFFSHORE FOR WINDS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET SOUTH.

.FIRE WEATHER...MORNING UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS ALONG WITH THE NASA
VERTICAL WIND PROFILERS SCATTERED ABOUT BREVARD COUNTY AND THE
LATEST HRRR3 SURFACE AND 1000MB WIND FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON
VALIDATE THE PREVIOUS FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION.

PREVIOUS FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION...GUSTY LOW LEVEL WEST WINDS AROUND
15 MPH AND TRANSPORT WINDS APPROACHING 25 TO 30 MPH LATE THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON WILL LEAD TO EXCELLENT DISPERSIONS ACROSS THE
REGION. THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE
UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S...HOWEVER ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS
FOR RH VALUES TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. ERC VALUES
GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE LOW 20S...THEREFORE NO HEADLINES WILL BE IN
PLACE THOUGH ANY ONGOING OR NEW FIRES MAY EXPERIENCE CONTROL
PROBLEMS DUE TO THE GUSTY WINDS.

.CLIMATE...

RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY...SUN APRIL 26...

DAYTONA BEACH...93F
ORLANDO.........98F
MELBOURNE.......92F
VERO
BEACH......95F

&&

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

TODAY-TONIGHT...MCS THAT PROPAGATED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA
LATE LAST EVENING RAPIDLY FELL APART AS IT TRAVERSED THE PENINSULA
BRINGING LITTLE MORE THAN LIGHT RAIN TO FAR NORTHERN LAKE AND
VOLUSIA COUNTIES AS IT RACED OFFSHORE.

THE DRIVING SYNOPTIC FEATURE REMAIN A BROAD SURFACE LOW/TROUGH
STRETCHED OUT ACROSS THE TN VALLEY INTO THE CAROLINAS WITH THE
CENTER SLOWLY MOVING OFFSHORE INTO THE ATLANTIC THIS MORNING. TROUGH
AXIS/FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THIS FEATURE WILL DROP
INTO NORTH FLORIDA THIS MORNING AND CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE
AFTERNOON.

LAST EVENING`S SOUNDINGS SHOW A FAIRLY DECENT DRY AIR LAYER REMAINS
BETWEEN 850-500MB. WHILE MOISTURE POOLED ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL
MODIFY THIS SOMEWHAT...MOST MODELS ARE NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSED WITH
THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION AND HAVE TRENDED LOWER WITH
POPS...NOW MORE ALONG THE LINES OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT FOR TODAY. THIS
SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE TREND OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS OF COVERAGE
WELL BELOW WHAT MODELS HAVE SHOWN.

ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TOWARDS SUNRISE ACROSS NORTHERN
LAKE/VOLUSIA AS THE TROUGH DROPS IN...BECOMING WIDELY SCATTERED INTO
THE AFTERNOON AS TROUGH PROGRESSES SOUTHWARDS. ANY SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL MOVE QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST WITH STEERING FLOW A
ROBUST 40 TO 45 KNOTS.

OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PREVENT FORMATION OF EAST COAST SEA BREEZE AND
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY APPROACH RECORDS ALONG THE COAST DEPENDING
ON THE ONSET OF HEAVIER CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S OVER THE INTERIOR AND LOW 90S ALONG THE COAST.

WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE REGION ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOWS IN THE 70S.

MON-WED...A WEAK BACK DOOR FRONT WILL OOZE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NRN
PENINSULA MON...STALLING SOMEWHERE BETWEEN KSGJ AND KXMR THRU EARLY
TUE. A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL U.S. BEGINS
TO OPEN UP AS IT REACHES THE TN/OH VALLEYS WED. AS THIS OCCURS...A
SURFACE LOW FORMS OVER THE NWRN GULF AND SLIDES EWD TO NEAR MOBILE
BAY TUE EVENING AND THEN ENE ACROSS SRN GA AND INTO THE ATLC. THE
STALLED FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF CENTRAL FL TUE NIGHT WITH THE LOW
SWINGING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE PENINSULA ON WEDNESDAY. RAIN
CHCS WILL INCREASE ON MONDAY (40-50) AND EVEN MORE SO TUE THROUGH
WED (60). OF NOTE IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS THAT THE GFS TRENDED
PRETTY FIRMLY IN THE DIRECTION OF THE STRONGER ECM SOLUTION...WHICH
NECESSITATED LOWERING POPS STARTING WED NIGHT.

MAXES IN THE M-U80S ON MON FALL BACK INTO THE U70S-L80S TUE OVER ALL
BUT THE FAR SRN CWA TUE AS CLOUDS/PRECIP ASCD WITH THE STALLED BDRY
SETTLE OVER THE AREA. A LITTLE WARMER WED WITH INCREASING SW WINDS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND NMRS SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
TAPERING OFF FROM NW-SE WED NIGHT.

THU-SAT...THREAT FOR SHOWERS LINGERS INTO THU (MAINLY EARLY) AS A
WEAK SECONDARY TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WITH
DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL TAKE HOLD THROUGH FRI/FRI NIGHT.
WINDS VEER ONSHORE NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING NORTH OF
FL ELONGATES EWD. COULD SEE A SMALL COASTAL SHOWERS THREAT DEVELOP
BUT RATHER EARLY TO GAUGE THE STRENGTH OF EASTERLIES THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...AREAS OF MVFR FOG/STRATUS OVER NORTHERN TERMINALS
THROUGH 13Z THIS MORNING. ISOLD SHRA POSSIBLE NORTH OF KISM-KEVB
AFTER 12Z...BECOMING WDLY SCT INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH ISOLD TSRA.
ISOLD SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION AFTER 17Z.
WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 12-17KTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO
25KTS AT TIMES OUTSIDE OF SHRA/TSRA. GUSTINESS WILL DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET...BUT SUSTAINED WINDS WILL REMAIN 10-15KTS THIS EVENING.

&&

TODAY-TONIGHT...MODERATE WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES THIS MORNING
WITH BUOY 41009 REPORTING 15-20KTS AND BUOY 41010 20-25KTS...WHICH
SUPPORTS THE ONGOING SCA FOR WINDS IN PLACE FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS
NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET THIS MORNING. GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY
LATER THIS MORNING AS SURFACE LOW MOVES FURTHER EAST...WITH WINDS
BECOMING MORE WESTERLY AND EASING TO AROUND 15KTS. WINDS INCREASE
OUT OF THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AGAIN LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS
STRONGER FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE LOCAL ATLANTIC. SEAS 2-3FT
NEARSHORE AND 4-5FT OFFSHORE THIS MORNING... BRIEFLY SUBSIDING TO 2-
3FT THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE NEXT WESTERLY WIND PUSH DRIVES SEAS BACK
UP LATE TONIGHT. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP DOMINANT PERIODS SHORT AND
CHOPPY.

MON-THU..."BACK DOOR" FRONTAL BDRY SAGS INTO THE LOCAL ATLC WATERS
DURING THE DAY...WITH STOUT WRLY FLOW BEING DISPLACED SWD/WEAKENING
BY THE NRLY WIND SHIFT OOZING INTO THE WATERS FROM THE NORTH. FAIRLY
SLACK WINDS VEER QUICKLY BACK AROUND TO NE AND EAST OVERNIGHT WITH
FLOW INCREASING SOME OUT OF THE E-ESE TUE AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE SERN U.S SLIDES OFFSHORE. WINDS VEER TO S-SW WED AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE NERN GOMEX TO OFFSHORE THE CAROLINAS BY WED
NIGHT. WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST TO 20-25KT LATE WED NIGHT INTO
THU BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE...THOUGH OFFSHORE COMPONENT WILL LIKELY
KEEP OFFSHORE SEAS BELOW 7FT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  91  72  80  66 /  40  30  30  40
MCO  90  73  86  67 /  30  30  50  30
MLB  93  74  84  68 /  20  30  40  30
VRB  93  73  84  68 /  20  20  40  20
LEE  88  72  83  66 /  40  30  50  40
SFB  89  74  84  66 /  30  30  50  30
ORL  89  75  85  68 /  30  30  50  30
FPR  93  72  86  68 /  20  20  40  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-
     VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.

&&

$$

LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...SHARP
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...WIMMER




000
FXUS62 KMLB 261349
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
945 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT-THIS AFTERNOON...MORNING FLORIDA UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS AND THE
NASA VERTICAL WIND PROFILER(S) SCATTERED ABOUT THE MELBOURNE AREA
ALL SHOWED A STRONG WIND PROFILE OF 30 KNOTS OR MORE FROM JUST OFF
THE SURFACE THROUGH THE ENTIRE COLUMN. IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH HEATING
TO MIX THESE STRONG WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE. WRESTLING WITH TO GO
WITH WINDY FOR THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE AXIS OF THE 250MB JET CORE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND MID LEVEL/500MB IMPULSES MOVING RAPIDLY WEST
TO EAST IN THE FLAT 500MB FLOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND FLORIDA SHOULD
KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
MORE SUN TO THE SOUTH COMBINED WITH THE STRONG LOW WESTERLY FLOW
WILL TRIGGER FAST WEST TO EAST MOVING DIURNAL CUMULUS. NO EAST COAST
SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. IF OUTDOORS WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE TO
THE WEST FOR FAST MOVING WEATHER TODAY.

THE ZONE UPDATE WILL LOOK AT SKIES AND WINDS FOR THE AFTERNOON.


.AVIATION...
MAY NEED TO BUMP UP AFTERNOON WINDS.

ISOLD SHRA POSSIBLE NORTH OF KISM-KEVB AFTER 12Z...BECOMING WDLY SCT
INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH ISOLD TSRA. ISOLD SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION AFTER 17Z. WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 12-17KTS
THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 25KTS AT TIMES OUTSIDE OF SHRA/TSRA.
GUSTINESS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET...BUT SUSTAINED WINDS WILL
REMAIN 10-15KTS THIS EVENING.

MARINE...
WESTERLY WINDS SHOULD QUICKLY INCREASE BEYOND A FEW MILES OF SHORE
AS THE STRONGER WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE MIX DOWN DURING THE
DAY. THE LATEST HRRR3 SURFACE AND 1000MB WINDS REMAIN 20 KNOTS OR
MORE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. WITH THIS IN MIND
WILL PUT A SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS EXERCISE CAUTION FOR WINDS BEYOND A
FEW MILES OF LAND FOR THE NEARSHORE MARINE ZONES CAPE CANAVERAL
NORTH AND EXTEND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FOR
THE OFFSHORE WATERS FOR THE CAPE CANAVERAL NORTH OFFSHORE WATERS.
SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION BOTH NEARSHORE AND
OFFSHORE FOR WINDS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET SOUTH.

.FIRE WEATHER...MORNING UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS ALONG WITH THE NASA
VERTICAL WIND PROFILERS SCATTERED ABOUT BREVARD COUNTY AND THE
LATEST HRRR3 SURFACE AND 1000MB WIND FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON
VALIDATE THE PREVIOUS FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION.

PREVIOUS FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION...GUSTY LOW LEVEL WEST WINDS AROUND
15 MPH AND TRANSPORT WINDS APPROACHING 25 TO 30 MPH LATE THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON WILL LEAD TO EXCELLENT DISPERSIONS ACROSS THE
REGION. THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE
UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S...HOWEVER ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS
FOR RH VALUES TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. ERC VALUES
GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE LOW 20S...THEREFORE NO HEADLINES WILL BE IN
PLACE THOUGH ANY ONGOING OR NEW FIRES MAY EXPERIENCE CONTROL
PROBLEMS DUE TO THE GUSTY WINDS.

.CLIMATE...

RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY...SUN APRIL 26...

DAYTONA BEACH...93F
ORLANDO.........98F
MELBOURNE.......92F
VERO
BEACH......95F

&&

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

TODAY-TONIGHT...MCS THAT PROPAGATED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA
LATE LAST EVENING RAPIDLY FELL APART AS IT TRAVERSED THE PENINSULA
BRINGING LITTLE MORE THAN LIGHT RAIN TO FAR NORTHERN LAKE AND
VOLUSIA COUNTIES AS IT RACED OFFSHORE.

THE DRIVING SYNOPTIC FEATURE REMAIN A BROAD SURFACE LOW/TROUGH
STRETCHED OUT ACROSS THE TN VALLEY INTO THE CAROLINAS WITH THE
CENTER SLOWLY MOVING OFFSHORE INTO THE ATLANTIC THIS MORNING. TROUGH
AXIS/FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THIS FEATURE WILL DROP
INTO NORTH FLORIDA THIS MORNING AND CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE
AFTERNOON.

LAST EVENING`S SOUNDINGS SHOW A FAIRLY DECENT DRY AIR LAYER REMAINS
BETWEEN 850-500MB. WHILE MOISTURE POOLED ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL
MODIFY THIS SOMEWHAT...MOST MODELS ARE NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSED WITH
THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION AND HAVE TRENDED LOWER WITH
POPS...NOW MORE ALONG THE LINES OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT FOR TODAY. THIS
SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE TREND OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS OF COVERAGE
WELL BELOW WHAT MODELS HAVE SHOWN.

ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TOWARDS SUNRISE ACROSS NORTHERN
LAKE/VOLUSIA AS THE TROUGH DROPS IN...BECOMING WIDELY SCATTERED INTO
THE AFTERNOON AS TROUGH PROGRESSES SOUTHWARDS. ANY SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL MOVE QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST WITH STEERING FLOW A
ROBUST 40 TO 45 KNOTS.

OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PREVENT FORMATION OF EAST COAST SEA BREEZE AND
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY APPROACH RECORDS ALONG THE COAST DEPENDING
ON THE ONSET OF HEAVIER CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S OVER THE INTERIOR AND LOW 90S ALONG THE COAST.

WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE REGION ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOWS IN THE 70S.

MON-WED...A WEAK BACK DOOR FRONT WILL OOZE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NRN
PENINSULA MON...STALLING SOMEWHERE BETWEEN KSGJ AND KXMR THRU EARLY
TUE. A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL U.S. BEGINS
TO OPEN UP AS IT REACHES THE TN/OH VALLEYS WED. AS THIS OCCURS...A
SURFACE LOW FORMS OVER THE NWRN GULF AND SLIDES EWD TO NEAR MOBILE
BAY TUE EVENING AND THEN ENE ACROSS SRN GA AND INTO THE ATLC. THE
STALLED FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF CENTRAL FL TUE NIGHT WITH THE LOW
SWINGING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE PENINSULA ON WEDNESDAY. RAIN
CHCS WILL INCREASE ON MONDAY (40-50) AND EVEN MORE SO TUE THROUGH
WED (60). OF NOTE IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS THAT THE GFS TRENDED
PRETTY FIRMLY IN THE DIRECTION OF THE STRONGER ECM SOLUTION...WHICH
NECESSITATED LOWERING POPS STARTING WED NIGHT.

MAXES IN THE M-U80S ON MON FALL BACK INTO THE U70S-L80S TUE OVER ALL
BUT THE FAR SRN CWA TUE AS CLOUDS/PRECIP ASCD WITH THE STALLED BDRY
SETTLE OVER THE AREA. A LITTLE WARMER WED WITH INCREASING SW WINDS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND NMRS SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
TAPERING OFF FROM NW-SE WED NIGHT.

THU-SAT...THREAT FOR SHOWERS LINGERS INTO THU (MAINLY EARLY) AS A
WEAK SECONDARY TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WITH
DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL TAKE HOLD THROUGH FRI/FRI NIGHT.
WINDS VEER ONSHORE NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING NORTH OF
FL ELONGATES EWD. COULD SEE A SMALL COASTAL SHOWERS THREAT DEVELOP
BUT RATHER EARLY TO GAUGE THE STRENGTH OF EASTERLIES THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...AREAS OF MVFR FOG/STRATUS OVER NORTHERN TERMINALS
THROUGH 13Z THIS MORNING. ISOLD SHRA POSSIBLE NORTH OF KISM-KEVB
AFTER 12Z...BECOMING WDLY SCT INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH ISOLD TSRA.
ISOLD SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION AFTER 17Z.
WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 12-17KTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO
25KTS AT TIMES OUTSIDE OF SHRA/TSRA. GUSTINESS WILL DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET...BUT SUSTAINED WINDS WILL REMAIN 10-15KTS THIS EVENING.

&&

TODAY-TONIGHT...MODERATE WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES THIS MORNING
WITH BUOY 41009 REPORTING 15-20KTS AND BUOY 41010 20-25KTS...WHICH
SUPPORTS THE ONGOING SCA FOR WINDS IN PLACE FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS
NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET THIS MORNING. GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY
LATER THIS MORNING AS SURFACE LOW MOVES FURTHER EAST...WITH WINDS
BECOMING MORE WESTERLY AND EASING TO AROUND 15KTS. WINDS INCREASE
OUT OF THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AGAIN LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS
STRONGER FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE LOCAL ATLANTIC. SEAS 2-3FT
NEARSHORE AND 4-5FT OFFSHORE THIS MORNING... BRIEFLY SUBSIDING TO 2-
3FT THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE NEXT WESTERLY WIND PUSH DRIVES SEAS BACK
UP LATE TONIGHT. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP DOMINANT PERIODS SHORT AND
CHOPPY.

MON-THU..."BACK DOOR" FRONTAL BDRY SAGS INTO THE LOCAL ATLC WATERS
DURING THE DAY...WITH STOUT WRLY FLOW BEING DISPLACED SWD/WEAKENING
BY THE NRLY WIND SHIFT OOZING INTO THE WATERS FROM THE NORTH. FAIRLY
SLACK WINDS VEER QUICKLY BACK AROUND TO NE AND EAST OVERNIGHT WITH
FLOW INCREASING SOME OUT OF THE E-ESE TUE AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE SERN U.S SLIDES OFFSHORE. WINDS VEER TO S-SW WED AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE NERN GOMEX TO OFFSHORE THE CAROLINAS BY WED
NIGHT. WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST TO 20-25KT LATE WED NIGHT INTO
THU BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE...THOUGH OFFSHORE COMPONENT WILL LIKELY
KEEP OFFSHORE SEAS BELOW 7FT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  91  72  80  66 /  40  30  30  40
MCO  90  73  86  67 /  30  30  50  30
MLB  93  74  84  68 /  20  30  40  30
VRB  93  73  84  68 /  20  20  40  20
LEE  88  72  83  66 /  40  30  50  40
SFB  89  74  84  66 /  30  30  50  30
ORL  89  75  85  68 /  30  30  50  30
FPR  93  72  86  68 /  20  20  40  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-
     VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.

&&

$$

LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...SHARP
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...WIMMER





000
FXUS62 KMLB 260827
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
425 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY-TONIGHT...MCS THAT PROPAGATED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA
LATE LAST EVENING RAPIDLY FELL APART AS IT TRAVERSED THE PENINSULA
BRINGING LITTLE MORE THAN LIGHT RAIN TO FAR NORTHERN LAKE AND
VOLUSIA COUNTIES AS IT RACED OFFSHORE.

THE DRIVING SYNOPTIC FEATURE REMAIN A BROAD SURFACE LOW/TROUGH
STRETCHED OUT ACROSS THE TN VALLEY INTO THE CAROLINAS WITH THE
CENTER SLOWLY MOVING OFFSHORE INTO THE ATLANTIC THIS MORNING. TROUGH
AXIS/FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THIS FEATURE WILL DROP
INTO NORTH FLORIDA THIS MORNING AND CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE
AFTERNOON.

LAST EVENING`S SOUNDINGS SHOW A FAIRLY DECENT DRY AIR LAYER REMAINS
BETWEEN 850-500MB. WHILE MOISTURE POOLED ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL
MODIFY THIS SOMEWHAT...MOST MODELS ARE NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSED WITH
THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION AND HAVE TRENDED LOWER WITH
POPS...NOW MORE ALONG THE LINES OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT FOR TODAY. THIS
SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE TREND OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS OF COVERAGE
WELL BELOW WHAT MODELS HAVE SHOWN.

ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TOWARDS SUNRISE ACROSS NORTHERN
LAKE/VOLUSIA AS THE TROUGH DROPS IN...BECOMING WIDELY SCATTERED INTO
THE AFTERNOON AS TROUGH PROGRESSES SOUTHWARDS. ANY SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL MOVE QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST WITH STEERING FLOW A
ROBUST 40 TO 45 KNOTS.

OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PREVENT FORMATION OF EAST COAST SEA BREEZE AND
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY APPROACH RECORDS ALONG THE COAST DEPENDING
ON THE ONSET OF HEAVIER CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S OVER THE INTERIOR AND LOW 90S ALONG THE COAST.

WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE REGION ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOWS IN THE 70S.

MON-WED...A WEAK BACK DOOR FRONT WILL OOZE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NRN
PENINSULA MON...STALLING SOMEWHERE BETWEEN KSGJ AND KXMR THRU EARLY
TUE. A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL U.S. BEGINS
TO OPEN UP AS IT REACHES THE TN/OH VALLEYS WED. AS THIS OCCURS...A
SURFACE LOW FORMS OVER THE NWRN GULF AND SLIDES EWD TO NEAR MOBILE
BAY TUE EVENING AND THEN ENE ACROSS SRN GA AND INTO THE ATLC. THE
STALLED FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF CENTRAL FL TUE NIGHT WITH THE LOW
SWINGING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE PENINSULA ON WEDNESDAY. RAIN
CHCS WILL INCREASE ON MONDAY (40-50) AND EVEN MORE SO TUE THROUGH
WED (60). OF NOTE IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS THAT THE GFS TRENDED
PRETTY FIRMLY IN THE DIRECTION OF THE STRONGER ECM SOLUTION...WHICH
NECESSITATED LOWERING POPS STARTING WED NIGHT.

MAXES IN THE M-U80S ON MON FALL BACK INTO THE U70S-L80S TUE OVER ALL
BUT THE FAR SRN CWA TUE AS CLOUDS/PRECIP ASCD WITH THE STALLED BDRY
SETTLE OVER THE AREA. A LITTLE WARMER WED WITH INCREASING SW WINDS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND NMRS SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
TAPERING OFF FROM NW-SE WED NIGHT.

THU-SAT...THREAT FOR SHOWERS LINGERS INTO THU (MAINLY EARLY) AS A
WEAK SECONDARY TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WITH
DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL TAKE HOLD THROUGH FRI/FRI NIGHT.
WINDS VEER ONSHORE NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING NORTH OF
FL ELONGATES EWD. COULD SEE A SMALL COASTAL SHOWERS THREAT DEVELOP
BUT RATHER EARLY TO GAUGE THE STRENGTH OF EASTERLIES THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...AREAS OF MVFR FOG/STRATUS OVER NORTHERN TERMINALS
THROUGH 13Z THIS MORNING. ISOLD SHRA POSSIBLE NORTH OF KISM-KEVB
AFTER 12Z...BECOMING WDLY SCT INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH ISOLD TSRA.
ISOLD SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION AFTER 17Z.
WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 12-17KTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO
25KTS AT TIMES OUTSIDE OF SHRA/TSRA. GUSTINESS WILL DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET...BUT SUSTAINED WINDS WILL REMAIN 10-15KTS THIS EVENING.

&&

TODAY-TONIGHT...MODERATE WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES THIS MORNING
WITH BUOY 41009 REPORTING 15-20KTS AND BUOY 41010 20-25KTS...WHICH
SUPPORTS THE ONGOING SCA FOR WINDS IN PLACE FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS
NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET THIS MORNING. GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY
LATER THIS MORNING AS SURFACE LOW MOVES FURTHER EAST...WITH WINDS
BECOMING MORE WESTERLY AND EASING TO AROUND 15KTS. WINDS INCREASE
OUT OF THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AGAIN LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS
STRONGER FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE LOCAL ATLANTIC. SEAS 2-3FT
NEARSHORE AND 4-5FT OFFSHORE THIS MORNING... BRIEFLY SUBSIDING TO 2-
3FT THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE NEXT WESTERLY WIND PUSH DRIVES SEAS BACK
UP LATE TONIGHT. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP DOMINANT PERIODS SHORT AND
CHOPPY.

MON-THU..."BACK DOOR" FRONTAL BDRY SAGS INTO THE LOCAL ATLC WATERS
DURING THE DAY...WITH STOUT WRLY FLOW BEING DISPLACED SWD/WEAKENING
BY THE NRLY WIND SHIFT OOZING INTO THE WATERS FROM THE NORTH. FAIRLY
SLACK WINDS VEER QUICKLY BACK AROUND TO NE AND EAST OVERNIGHT WITH
FLOW INCREASING SOME OUT OF THE E-ESE TUE AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE SERN U.S SLIDES OFFSHORE. WINDS VEER TO S-SW WED AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE NERN GOMEX TO OFFSHORE THE CAROLINAS BY WED
NIGHT. WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST TO 20-25KT LATE WED NIGHT INTO
THU BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE...THOUGH OFFSHORE COMPONENT WILL LIKELY
KEEP OFFSHORE SEAS BELOW 7FT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...GUSTY LOW LEVEL WEST WINDS AROUND 15 MPH AND
TRANSPORT WINDS APPROACHING 25 TO 30 MPH LATE THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON WILL LEAD TO EXCELLENT DISPERSIONS ACROSS THE REGION. THE
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S
AND LOW 90S...HOWEVER ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS FOR RH
VALUES TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. ERC VALUES
GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE LOW 20S...THEREFORE NO HEADLINES WILL BE IN
PLACE THOUGH ANY ONGOING OR NEW FIRES MAY EXPERIENCE CONTROL
PROBLEMS DUE TO THE GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY...SUN APRIL 26...

DAYTONA BEACH...93F
ORLANDO.........98F
MELBOURNE.......92F
VERO BEACH......95F

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  91  72  80  66 /  40  30  30  40
MCO  90  73  86  67 /  30  30  50  30
MLB  93  74  84  68 /  20  30  40  30
VRB  93  73  84  68 /  20  20  40  20
LEE  88  72  83  66 /  40  30  50  40
SFB  89  74  84  66 /  30  30  50  30
ORL  89  75  85  68 /  30  30  50  30
FPR  93  72  86  68 /  20  20  40  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-
     VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...MOSES
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX....CRISTALDI




000
FXUS62 KMLB 260827
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
425 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY-TONIGHT...MCS THAT PROPAGATED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA
LATE LAST EVENING RAPIDLY FELL APART AS IT TRAVERSED THE PENINSULA
BRINGING LITTLE MORE THAN LIGHT RAIN TO FAR NORTHERN LAKE AND
VOLUSIA COUNTIES AS IT RACED OFFSHORE.

THE DRIVING SYNOPTIC FEATURE REMAIN A BROAD SURFACE LOW/TROUGH
STRETCHED OUT ACROSS THE TN VALLEY INTO THE CAROLINAS WITH THE
CENTER SLOWLY MOVING OFFSHORE INTO THE ATLANTIC THIS MORNING. TROUGH
AXIS/FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THIS FEATURE WILL DROP
INTO NORTH FLORIDA THIS MORNING AND CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE
AFTERNOON.

LAST EVENING`S SOUNDINGS SHOW A FAIRLY DECENT DRY AIR LAYER REMAINS
BETWEEN 850-500MB. WHILE MOISTURE POOLED ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL
MODIFY THIS SOMEWHAT...MOST MODELS ARE NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSED WITH
THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION AND HAVE TRENDED LOWER WITH
POPS...NOW MORE ALONG THE LINES OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT FOR TODAY. THIS
SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE TREND OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS OF COVERAGE
WELL BELOW WHAT MODELS HAVE SHOWN.

ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TOWARDS SUNRISE ACROSS NORTHERN
LAKE/VOLUSIA AS THE TROUGH DROPS IN...BECOMING WIDELY SCATTERED INTO
THE AFTERNOON AS TROUGH PROGRESSES SOUTHWARDS. ANY SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL MOVE QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST WITH STEERING FLOW A
ROBUST 40 TO 45 KNOTS.

OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PREVENT FORMATION OF EAST COAST SEA BREEZE AND
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY APPROACH RECORDS ALONG THE COAST DEPENDING
ON THE ONSET OF HEAVIER CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S OVER THE INTERIOR AND LOW 90S ALONG THE COAST.

WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE REGION ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOWS IN THE 70S.

MON-WED...A WEAK BACK DOOR FRONT WILL OOZE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NRN
PENINSULA MON...STALLING SOMEWHERE BETWEEN KSGJ AND KXMR THRU EARLY
TUE. A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL U.S. BEGINS
TO OPEN UP AS IT REACHES THE TN/OH VALLEYS WED. AS THIS OCCURS...A
SURFACE LOW FORMS OVER THE NWRN GULF AND SLIDES EWD TO NEAR MOBILE
BAY TUE EVENING AND THEN ENE ACROSS SRN GA AND INTO THE ATLC. THE
STALLED FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF CENTRAL FL TUE NIGHT WITH THE LOW
SWINGING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE PENINSULA ON WEDNESDAY. RAIN
CHCS WILL INCREASE ON MONDAY (40-50) AND EVEN MORE SO TUE THROUGH
WED (60). OF NOTE IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS THAT THE GFS TRENDED
PRETTY FIRMLY IN THE DIRECTION OF THE STRONGER ECM SOLUTION...WHICH
NECESSITATED LOWERING POPS STARTING WED NIGHT.

MAXES IN THE M-U80S ON MON FALL BACK INTO THE U70S-L80S TUE OVER ALL
BUT THE FAR SRN CWA TUE AS CLOUDS/PRECIP ASCD WITH THE STALLED BDRY
SETTLE OVER THE AREA. A LITTLE WARMER WED WITH INCREASING SW WINDS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND NMRS SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
TAPERING OFF FROM NW-SE WED NIGHT.

THU-SAT...THREAT FOR SHOWERS LINGERS INTO THU (MAINLY EARLY) AS A
WEAK SECONDARY TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WITH
DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL TAKE HOLD THROUGH FRI/FRI NIGHT.
WINDS VEER ONSHORE NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING NORTH OF
FL ELONGATES EWD. COULD SEE A SMALL COASTAL SHOWERS THREAT DEVELOP
BUT RATHER EARLY TO GAUGE THE STRENGTH OF EASTERLIES THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...AREAS OF MVFR FOG/STRATUS OVER NORTHERN TERMINALS
THROUGH 13Z THIS MORNING. ISOLD SHRA POSSIBLE NORTH OF KISM-KEVB
AFTER 12Z...BECOMING WDLY SCT INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH ISOLD TSRA.
ISOLD SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION AFTER 17Z.
WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 12-17KTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO
25KTS AT TIMES OUTSIDE OF SHRA/TSRA. GUSTINESS WILL DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET...BUT SUSTAINED WINDS WILL REMAIN 10-15KTS THIS EVENING.

&&

TODAY-TONIGHT...MODERATE WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES THIS MORNING
WITH BUOY 41009 REPORTING 15-20KTS AND BUOY 41010 20-25KTS...WHICH
SUPPORTS THE ONGOING SCA FOR WINDS IN PLACE FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS
NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET THIS MORNING. GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY
LATER THIS MORNING AS SURFACE LOW MOVES FURTHER EAST...WITH WINDS
BECOMING MORE WESTERLY AND EASING TO AROUND 15KTS. WINDS INCREASE
OUT OF THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AGAIN LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS
STRONGER FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE LOCAL ATLANTIC. SEAS 2-3FT
NEARSHORE AND 4-5FT OFFSHORE THIS MORNING... BRIEFLY SUBSIDING TO 2-
3FT THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE NEXT WESTERLY WIND PUSH DRIVES SEAS BACK
UP LATE TONIGHT. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP DOMINANT PERIODS SHORT AND
CHOPPY.

MON-THU..."BACK DOOR" FRONTAL BDRY SAGS INTO THE LOCAL ATLC WATERS
DURING THE DAY...WITH STOUT WRLY FLOW BEING DISPLACED SWD/WEAKENING
BY THE NRLY WIND SHIFT OOZING INTO THE WATERS FROM THE NORTH. FAIRLY
SLACK WINDS VEER QUICKLY BACK AROUND TO NE AND EAST OVERNIGHT WITH
FLOW INCREASING SOME OUT OF THE E-ESE TUE AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE SERN U.S SLIDES OFFSHORE. WINDS VEER TO S-SW WED AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE NERN GOMEX TO OFFSHORE THE CAROLINAS BY WED
NIGHT. WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST TO 20-25KT LATE WED NIGHT INTO
THU BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE...THOUGH OFFSHORE COMPONENT WILL LIKELY
KEEP OFFSHORE SEAS BELOW 7FT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...GUSTY LOW LEVEL WEST WINDS AROUND 15 MPH AND
TRANSPORT WINDS APPROACHING 25 TO 30 MPH LATE THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON WILL LEAD TO EXCELLENT DISPERSIONS ACROSS THE REGION. THE
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S
AND LOW 90S...HOWEVER ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS FOR RH
VALUES TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. ERC VALUES
GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE LOW 20S...THEREFORE NO HEADLINES WILL BE IN
PLACE THOUGH ANY ONGOING OR NEW FIRES MAY EXPERIENCE CONTROL
PROBLEMS DUE TO THE GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY...SUN APRIL 26...

DAYTONA BEACH...93F
ORLANDO.........98F
MELBOURNE.......92F
VERO BEACH......95F

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  91  72  80  66 /  40  30  30  40
MCO  90  73  86  67 /  30  30  50  30
MLB  93  74  84  68 /  20  30  40  30
VRB  93  73  84  68 /  20  20  40  20
LEE  88  72  83  66 /  40  30  50  40
SFB  89  74  84  66 /  30  30  50  30
ORL  89  75  85  68 /  30  30  50  30
FPR  93  72  86  68 /  20  20  40  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-
     VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...MOSES
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX....CRISTALDI





000
FXUS62 KMLB 260135
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
932 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...

WX HAS BEEN QUIET SO FAR THIS EVENING IN EC FL...ALTHOUGH WARM AND
HUMID FOR LATE APRIL WITH DEW POINT READINGS MORE LIKE SUMMERTIME
VALUES IN LOW/MID 70S AT SOME OF THE REPORTING SITES.

MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST THIS EVENING IS CLUSTER OF TSTMS MOVING
RAPIDLY EAST ACROSS THE NE GULF OF MEXICO. IF THIS AREA CAN MAINTAIN
ITSELF...MAY AFFECT NORTHERN SECTIONS OF EC FL...ESP ACROSS NRN LAKE
AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WILL KEEP A LOW POP IN
FROM AROUND METRO ORLANDO NORTH AND THUNDER MENTION IN FOR NRN
LAKE/VOLUSIA...STRONG WIND GUSTS AND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN
THREAT FROM THESE STORMS. THREAT ENDING OVER THE LAND AREAS BY
AROUND 05-06Z DUE TO RAPID MOVEMENT OF THE CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...WILL MONITOR KLEE-KDAB FOR NEED TO ADD TEMPO FOR TSRA
AND HIGHER GUSTS IN NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR
TONIGHT BUT MAY HAVE SOME TEMPO IFR CIGS WITH LOW STRATUS
OVERNIGHT...ESP AFT 09Z.

&&

.MARINE...W-SW WINDS INCREASING OVERNIGHT WITH SCA LEVELS BEING
REACHED NORTHERN TWO OFFSHORE LEGS IN NEXT FEW HOURS. MADE AN
ADJUSTMENT TO SCA HEADLINE TO INDICATE ADVISORY IS FOR WINDS...
SINCE SEAS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH SCA VALUES. IF STORMS PRESENTLY
OVER GULF HOLD TOGETHER...COULD HAVE SOME STRONG GUSTS OVER
THE NORTHERN WATERS BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.

&&


.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-
     VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GLITTO
LONG TERM....LASCODY
AVIATION...GLITTO





000
FXUS62 KMLB 260135
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
932 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...

WX HAS BEEN QUIET SO FAR THIS EVENING IN EC FL...ALTHOUGH WARM AND
HUMID FOR LATE APRIL WITH DEW POINT READINGS MORE LIKE SUMMERTIME
VALUES IN LOW/MID 70S AT SOME OF THE REPORTING SITES.

MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST THIS EVENING IS CLUSTER OF TSTMS MOVING
RAPIDLY EAST ACROSS THE NE GULF OF MEXICO. IF THIS AREA CAN MAINTAIN
ITSELF...MAY AFFECT NORTHERN SECTIONS OF EC FL...ESP ACROSS NRN LAKE
AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WILL KEEP A LOW POP IN
FROM AROUND METRO ORLANDO NORTH AND THUNDER MENTION IN FOR NRN
LAKE/VOLUSIA...STRONG WIND GUSTS AND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN
THREAT FROM THESE STORMS. THREAT ENDING OVER THE LAND AREAS BY
AROUND 05-06Z DUE TO RAPID MOVEMENT OF THE CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...WILL MONITOR KLEE-KDAB FOR NEED TO ADD TEMPO FOR TSRA
AND HIGHER GUSTS IN NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR
TONIGHT BUT MAY HAVE SOME TEMPO IFR CIGS WITH LOW STRATUS
OVERNIGHT...ESP AFT 09Z.

&&

.MARINE...W-SW WINDS INCREASING OVERNIGHT WITH SCA LEVELS BEING
REACHED NORTHERN TWO OFFSHORE LEGS IN NEXT FEW HOURS. MADE AN
ADJUSTMENT TO SCA HEADLINE TO INDICATE ADVISORY IS FOR WINDS...
SINCE SEAS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH SCA VALUES. IF STORMS PRESENTLY
OVER GULF HOLD TOGETHER...COULD HAVE SOME STRONG GUSTS OVER
THE NORTHERN WATERS BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.

&&


.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-
     VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GLITTO
LONG TERM....LASCODY
AVIATION...GLITTO




000
FXUS62 KMLB 251850
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
250 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT...MID LEVEL RIDGE FLATTENS AS SHORTWAVES ROUND THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS SOUTH FROM THE LARGE MID LEVEL LOW JUST EAST
OF NEW ENGLAND. THE NEAR ZONAL FLOW SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH OVER THE
SOUTHEAST HELPS TO CONTINUE TO PUSH THE SURFACE HIGH FURTHER AWAY
FROM FLORIDA AND MAINTAIN A LONG FETCH OF SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS
FROM THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS FLORIDA AND INTO
THE NEARBY ATLANTIC. THE NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALSO KEEPS THE LARGE
WEATHER COMPLEX THAT WAS IMPACTING THE SOUTHEAST AND PART OF THE
PANHANDLE AND NORTH FLORIDA DURING THE DAY NORTH OF EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA. ANY LEFTOVER SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE INTERIOR WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST IMPACTING EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COASTAL
COUNTIES DURING THE EVENING BEFORE EXITING INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
BY MIDNIGHT. WINDS BECOME LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND ONCE THE
CLOUD COVER DISSIPATES AND THE LOWER LAYERS BEGIN TO DECOUPLE.
STRONGER WINDS ABOVE A LIGHTER SOUTHERLY WIND AND ANY GROUND
MOISTURE IS A GOOD COMBINATION FOR LOW CLOUDS FROM A COUPLE OF HOURS
BEFORE SUNRISE AND THE FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER DAY BREAK. BUT IS
DEPENDENT UPON ANY DECOUPLING LATE NIGHT. THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WIND ALSO WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING BELOW THE LOW 70S FOR
MOST OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

SUNDAY...MOISTURE POOLED AHEAD OF THE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD MOVING
BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH SATURDAYS WEATHER TO THE NORTH WILL RESULT
IN A NORTH TO SOUTH RANGE OF RAIN CHANCES FROM AROUND 50 PERCENT
NORTH TO ABOUT A 20 PERCENT FAR SOUTHERN LOCATIONS. THICKER CLOUD
COVER NORTHERN AREAS THAT ARE CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL JET CORE AND
MORE IMPULSED RIPPLING WEST TO EAST IN THE NEAR ZONAL MID LEVEL
FLOW. THERE SHOULD BE A NORTH TO SOUTH RANGE OF HIGHS FROM THE UPPER
80S IN THE NORTH UNDER THE THICKER CLOUD COVER IS TO BE FOUND TO THE
LOW 90S IN THE SOUTHERN LOCATIONS WHERE THERE SHOULD BE A LITTLE MORE
SUN.

MON NGT-TUE...ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING TUE AS THE WEAK BACK DOOR
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS ACROSS THE CWA AND HIGH PRES BUILDS TO THE NORTH.
WEAK WARM FRONTOGENETIC UPGLIDE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE PENINSULA TUE
NIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE CTRL-ERN
GOMEX...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND RAIN CHCS AS A RESULT.

WED-SAT...SFC LOW WILL CROSS THE NERN GOMEX WED AND MOVE UP THE ERN
SEABOARD ON THU. THE ECM IS STRONGER WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH TO
THE NORTH AND RESULTANT SURFACE LOW. CONSEQUENTLY...IT IS ALSO MORE
AGGRESSIVE AND FASTER SWINGING THE FRONT AND ASCD DRYING THROUGH THE
REGION. OUT OF RESPECT FOR THE GFS AND SINCE THE ECM HAS OVERDEEPENED
SRN STREAM SFC LOWS OUT IN THE D5+ RANGE A TIME OR TWO THIS SEASON
THE CURRENT FCST WILL FAVOR THE WEAKER AND LESS AGGRESSIVE GFS FOR
NOW...WHICH RESULTS IN HIGHER POPS FOR THU. DRIER AIR TAKES HOLD
FROM THU NIGHT INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH TEMPS PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...VCTS BKN030-040CB TIL 26/00Z. BKN-OVC VFR TIL 26/08Z.
MVFR TEMPO IFR...BKN005... CEILINGS BETWEEN 26/08Z AND 26/15Z.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT-SUN...INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SLOWLY DROPS SOUTHWARD ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA AND ITS COASTAL
WATERS. WINDS REACH SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS BY MIDNIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
MORNING FOR OFFSHORE WATERS BETWEEN FLAGLER BEACH AND SEBASTIAN INLET

MON-WED...WRLY FLOW NEAR 20KT EARLY MON MORNING WILL SLACKEN LATE AS
THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH COLLAPSES AND A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS
INTO THE AREA. WINDS VEER ONSHORE AND INCREASE AGAIN TUE...THEN VEER
FURTHER TO SRLY ON WED. SEAS FOR THE MOST PART 2-3FT NEAR SHORE AND
4-5FT OFFSHORE...WITH SOME INCREASE AREAWIDE TUE NIGHT-WED. AS
MENTIONED EARLIER IN THE AFD...THE ECM MAY BE OVERDEEPENING THE SFC
LOW AS IT CROSSES NORTH FL AND MOVES OFFSHORE THE SERN SEABOARD.
IF ITS SUB-1000MB SOLN WERE TO VERIFY...THEN WE`D LIKELY SEE WINDS
AND POSSIBLY SEAS REACH SCA LEVELS BY LATE WED.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD HIGHS FOR THIS WEEKEND

SAT 25 APRSUN 26 APR
DAYTONA BEACH...9393
ORLANDO.........9798
MELBOURNE....... 9792
VERO BEACH......9595


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  71  89  69  82 /  20  50  20  20
MCO  72  90  72  84 /  10  30  10  50
MLB  71  92  73  81 /  20  30  10  40
VRB  71  92  73  84 /  20  20  10  50
LEE  73  86  72  83 /  20  40  10  40
SFB  74  89  72  82 /  10  40  10  40
ORL  74  89  73  82 /  10  40  10  40
FPR  70  93  71  85 /  20  20  10  50

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-
     VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.

&&

$$

LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...WIMME




000
FXUS62 KMLB 251850
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
250 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT...MID LEVEL RIDGE FLATTENS AS SHORTWAVES ROUND THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS SOUTH FROM THE LARGE MID LEVEL LOW JUST EAST
OF NEW ENGLAND. THE NEAR ZONAL FLOW SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH OVER THE
SOUTHEAST HELPS TO CONTINUE TO PUSH THE SURFACE HIGH FURTHER AWAY
FROM FLORIDA AND MAINTAIN A LONG FETCH OF SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS
FROM THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS FLORIDA AND INTO
THE NEARBY ATLANTIC. THE NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALSO KEEPS THE LARGE
WEATHER COMPLEX THAT WAS IMPACTING THE SOUTHEAST AND PART OF THE
PANHANDLE AND NORTH FLORIDA DURING THE DAY NORTH OF EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA. ANY LEFTOVER SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE INTERIOR WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST IMPACTING EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COASTAL
COUNTIES DURING THE EVENING BEFORE EXITING INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
BY MIDNIGHT. WINDS BECOME LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND ONCE THE
CLOUD COVER DISSIPATES AND THE LOWER LAYERS BEGIN TO DECOUPLE.
STRONGER WINDS ABOVE A LIGHTER SOUTHERLY WIND AND ANY GROUND
MOISTURE IS A GOOD COMBINATION FOR LOW CLOUDS FROM A COUPLE OF HOURS
BEFORE SUNRISE AND THE FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER DAY BREAK. BUT IS
DEPENDENT UPON ANY DECOUPLING LATE NIGHT. THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WIND ALSO WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING BELOW THE LOW 70S FOR
MOST OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

SUNDAY...MOISTURE POOLED AHEAD OF THE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD MOVING
BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH SATURDAYS WEATHER TO THE NORTH WILL RESULT
IN A NORTH TO SOUTH RANGE OF RAIN CHANCES FROM AROUND 50 PERCENT
NORTH TO ABOUT A 20 PERCENT FAR SOUTHERN LOCATIONS. THICKER CLOUD
COVER NORTHERN AREAS THAT ARE CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL JET CORE AND
MORE IMPULSED RIPPLING WEST TO EAST IN THE NEAR ZONAL MID LEVEL
FLOW. THERE SHOULD BE A NORTH TO SOUTH RANGE OF HIGHS FROM THE UPPER
80S IN THE NORTH UNDER THE THICKER CLOUD COVER IS TO BE FOUND TO THE
LOW 90S IN THE SOUTHERN LOCATIONS WHERE THERE SHOULD BE A LITTLE MORE
SUN.

MON NGT-TUE...ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING TUE AS THE WEAK BACK DOOR
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS ACROSS THE CWA AND HIGH PRES BUILDS TO THE NORTH.
WEAK WARM FRONTOGENETIC UPGLIDE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE PENINSULA TUE
NIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE CTRL-ERN
GOMEX...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND RAIN CHCS AS A RESULT.

WED-SAT...SFC LOW WILL CROSS THE NERN GOMEX WED AND MOVE UP THE ERN
SEABOARD ON THU. THE ECM IS STRONGER WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH TO
THE NORTH AND RESULTANT SURFACE LOW. CONSEQUENTLY...IT IS ALSO MORE
AGGRESSIVE AND FASTER SWINGING THE FRONT AND ASCD DRYING THROUGH THE
REGION. OUT OF RESPECT FOR THE GFS AND SINCE THE ECM HAS OVERDEEPENED
SRN STREAM SFC LOWS OUT IN THE D5+ RANGE A TIME OR TWO THIS SEASON
THE CURRENT FCST WILL FAVOR THE WEAKER AND LESS AGGRESSIVE GFS FOR
NOW...WHICH RESULTS IN HIGHER POPS FOR THU. DRIER AIR TAKES HOLD
FROM THU NIGHT INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH TEMPS PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...VCTS BKN030-040CB TIL 26/00Z. BKN-OVC VFR TIL 26/08Z.
MVFR TEMPO IFR...BKN005... CEILINGS BETWEEN 26/08Z AND 26/15Z.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT-SUN...INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SLOWLY DROPS SOUTHWARD ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA AND ITS COASTAL
WATERS. WINDS REACH SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS BY MIDNIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
MORNING FOR OFFSHORE WATERS BETWEEN FLAGLER BEACH AND SEBASTIAN INLET

MON-WED...WRLY FLOW NEAR 20KT EARLY MON MORNING WILL SLACKEN LATE AS
THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH COLLAPSES AND A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS
INTO THE AREA. WINDS VEER ONSHORE AND INCREASE AGAIN TUE...THEN VEER
FURTHER TO SRLY ON WED. SEAS FOR THE MOST PART 2-3FT NEAR SHORE AND
4-5FT OFFSHORE...WITH SOME INCREASE AREAWIDE TUE NIGHT-WED. AS
MENTIONED EARLIER IN THE AFD...THE ECM MAY BE OVERDEEPENING THE SFC
LOW AS IT CROSSES NORTH FL AND MOVES OFFSHORE THE SERN SEABOARD.
IF ITS SUB-1000MB SOLN WERE TO VERIFY...THEN WE`D LIKELY SEE WINDS
AND POSSIBLY SEAS REACH SCA LEVELS BY LATE WED.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD HIGHS FOR THIS WEEKEND

SAT 25 APRSUN 26 APR
DAYTONA BEACH...9393
ORLANDO.........9798
MELBOURNE....... 9792
VERO BEACH......9595


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  71  89  69  82 /  20  50  20  20
MCO  72  90  72  84 /  10  30  10  50
MLB  71  92  73  81 /  20  30  10  40
VRB  71  92  73  84 /  20  20  10  50
LEE  73  86  72  83 /  20  40  10  40
SFB  74  89  72  82 /  10  40  10  40
ORL  74  89  73  82 /  10  40  10  40
FPR  70  93  71  85 /  20  20  10  50

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-
     VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.

&&

$$

LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...WIMME





000
FXUS62 KMLB 251850
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
250 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT...MID LEVEL RIDGE FLATTENS AS SHORTWAVES ROUND THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS SOUTH FROM THE LARGE MID LEVEL LOW JUST EAST
OF NEW ENGLAND. THE NEAR ZONAL FLOW SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH OVER THE
SOUTHEAST HELPS TO CONTINUE TO PUSH THE SURFACE HIGH FURTHER AWAY
FROM FLORIDA AND MAINTAIN A LONG FETCH OF SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS
FROM THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS FLORIDA AND INTO
THE NEARBY ATLANTIC. THE NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALSO KEEPS THE LARGE
WEATHER COMPLEX THAT WAS IMPACTING THE SOUTHEAST AND PART OF THE
PANHANDLE AND NORTH FLORIDA DURING THE DAY NORTH OF EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA. ANY LEFTOVER SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE INTERIOR WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST IMPACTING EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COASTAL
COUNTIES DURING THE EVENING BEFORE EXITING INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
BY MIDNIGHT. WINDS BECOME LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND ONCE THE
CLOUD COVER DISSIPATES AND THE LOWER LAYERS BEGIN TO DECOUPLE.
STRONGER WINDS ABOVE A LIGHTER SOUTHERLY WIND AND ANY GROUND
MOISTURE IS A GOOD COMBINATION FOR LOW CLOUDS FROM A COUPLE OF HOURS
BEFORE SUNRISE AND THE FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER DAY BREAK. BUT IS
DEPENDENT UPON ANY DECOUPLING LATE NIGHT. THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WIND ALSO WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING BELOW THE LOW 70S FOR
MOST OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

SUNDAY...MOISTURE POOLED AHEAD OF THE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD MOVING
BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH SATURDAYS WEATHER TO THE NORTH WILL RESULT
IN A NORTH TO SOUTH RANGE OF RAIN CHANCES FROM AROUND 50 PERCENT
NORTH TO ABOUT A 20 PERCENT FAR SOUTHERN LOCATIONS. THICKER CLOUD
COVER NORTHERN AREAS THAT ARE CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL JET CORE AND
MORE IMPULSED RIPPLING WEST TO EAST IN THE NEAR ZONAL MID LEVEL
FLOW. THERE SHOULD BE A NORTH TO SOUTH RANGE OF HIGHS FROM THE UPPER
80S IN THE NORTH UNDER THE THICKER CLOUD COVER IS TO BE FOUND TO THE
LOW 90S IN THE SOUTHERN LOCATIONS WHERE THERE SHOULD BE A LITTLE MORE
SUN.

MON NGT-TUE...ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING TUE AS THE WEAK BACK DOOR
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS ACROSS THE CWA AND HIGH PRES BUILDS TO THE NORTH.
WEAK WARM FRONTOGENETIC UPGLIDE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE PENINSULA TUE
NIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE CTRL-ERN
GOMEX...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND RAIN CHCS AS A RESULT.

WED-SAT...SFC LOW WILL CROSS THE NERN GOMEX WED AND MOVE UP THE ERN
SEABOARD ON THU. THE ECM IS STRONGER WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH TO
THE NORTH AND RESULTANT SURFACE LOW. CONSEQUENTLY...IT IS ALSO MORE
AGGRESSIVE AND FASTER SWINGING THE FRONT AND ASCD DRYING THROUGH THE
REGION. OUT OF RESPECT FOR THE GFS AND SINCE THE ECM HAS OVERDEEPENED
SRN STREAM SFC LOWS OUT IN THE D5+ RANGE A TIME OR TWO THIS SEASON
THE CURRENT FCST WILL FAVOR THE WEAKER AND LESS AGGRESSIVE GFS FOR
NOW...WHICH RESULTS IN HIGHER POPS FOR THU. DRIER AIR TAKES HOLD
FROM THU NIGHT INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH TEMPS PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...VCTS BKN030-040CB TIL 26/00Z. BKN-OVC VFR TIL 26/08Z.
MVFR TEMPO IFR...BKN005... CEILINGS BETWEEN 26/08Z AND 26/15Z.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT-SUN...INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SLOWLY DROPS SOUTHWARD ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA AND ITS COASTAL
WATERS. WINDS REACH SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS BY MIDNIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
MORNING FOR OFFSHORE WATERS BETWEEN FLAGLER BEACH AND SEBASTIAN INLET

MON-WED...WRLY FLOW NEAR 20KT EARLY MON MORNING WILL SLACKEN LATE AS
THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH COLLAPSES AND A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS
INTO THE AREA. WINDS VEER ONSHORE AND INCREASE AGAIN TUE...THEN VEER
FURTHER TO SRLY ON WED. SEAS FOR THE MOST PART 2-3FT NEAR SHORE AND
4-5FT OFFSHORE...WITH SOME INCREASE AREAWIDE TUE NIGHT-WED. AS
MENTIONED EARLIER IN THE AFD...THE ECM MAY BE OVERDEEPENING THE SFC
LOW AS IT CROSSES NORTH FL AND MOVES OFFSHORE THE SERN SEABOARD.
IF ITS SUB-1000MB SOLN WERE TO VERIFY...THEN WE`D LIKELY SEE WINDS
AND POSSIBLY SEAS REACH SCA LEVELS BY LATE WED.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD HIGHS FOR THIS WEEKEND

SAT 25 APRSUN 26 APR
DAYTONA BEACH...9393
ORLANDO.........9798
MELBOURNE....... 9792
VERO BEACH......9595


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  71  89  69  82 /  20  50  20  20
MCO  72  90  72  84 /  10  30  10  50
MLB  71  92  73  81 /  20  30  10  40
VRB  71  92  73  84 /  20  20  10  50
LEE  73  86  72  83 /  20  40  10  40
SFB  74  89  72  82 /  10  40  10  40
ORL  74  89  73  82 /  10  40  10  40
FPR  70  93  71  85 /  20  20  10  50

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-
     VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.

&&

$$

LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...WIMME




000
FXUS62 KMLB 251850
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
250 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT...MID LEVEL RIDGE FLATTENS AS SHORTWAVES ROUND THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS SOUTH FROM THE LARGE MID LEVEL LOW JUST EAST
OF NEW ENGLAND. THE NEAR ZONAL FLOW SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH OVER THE
SOUTHEAST HELPS TO CONTINUE TO PUSH THE SURFACE HIGH FURTHER AWAY
FROM FLORIDA AND MAINTAIN A LONG FETCH OF SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS
FROM THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS FLORIDA AND INTO
THE NEARBY ATLANTIC. THE NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALSO KEEPS THE LARGE
WEATHER COMPLEX THAT WAS IMPACTING THE SOUTHEAST AND PART OF THE
PANHANDLE AND NORTH FLORIDA DURING THE DAY NORTH OF EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA. ANY LEFTOVER SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE INTERIOR WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST IMPACTING EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COASTAL
COUNTIES DURING THE EVENING BEFORE EXITING INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
BY MIDNIGHT. WINDS BECOME LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND ONCE THE
CLOUD COVER DISSIPATES AND THE LOWER LAYERS BEGIN TO DECOUPLE.
STRONGER WINDS ABOVE A LIGHTER SOUTHERLY WIND AND ANY GROUND
MOISTURE IS A GOOD COMBINATION FOR LOW CLOUDS FROM A COUPLE OF HOURS
BEFORE SUNRISE AND THE FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER DAY BREAK. BUT IS
DEPENDENT UPON ANY DECOUPLING LATE NIGHT. THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WIND ALSO WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING BELOW THE LOW 70S FOR
MOST OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

SUNDAY...MOISTURE POOLED AHEAD OF THE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD MOVING
BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH SATURDAYS WEATHER TO THE NORTH WILL RESULT
IN A NORTH TO SOUTH RANGE OF RAIN CHANCES FROM AROUND 50 PERCENT
NORTH TO ABOUT A 20 PERCENT FAR SOUTHERN LOCATIONS. THICKER CLOUD
COVER NORTHERN AREAS THAT ARE CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL JET CORE AND
MORE IMPULSED RIPPLING WEST TO EAST IN THE NEAR ZONAL MID LEVEL
FLOW. THERE SHOULD BE A NORTH TO SOUTH RANGE OF HIGHS FROM THE UPPER
80S IN THE NORTH UNDER THE THICKER CLOUD COVER IS TO BE FOUND TO THE
LOW 90S IN THE SOUTHERN LOCATIONS WHERE THERE SHOULD BE A LITTLE MORE
SUN.

MON NGT-TUE...ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING TUE AS THE WEAK BACK DOOR
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS ACROSS THE CWA AND HIGH PRES BUILDS TO THE NORTH.
WEAK WARM FRONTOGENETIC UPGLIDE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE PENINSULA TUE
NIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE CTRL-ERN
GOMEX...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND RAIN CHCS AS A RESULT.

WED-SAT...SFC LOW WILL CROSS THE NERN GOMEX WED AND MOVE UP THE ERN
SEABOARD ON THU. THE ECM IS STRONGER WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH TO
THE NORTH AND RESULTANT SURFACE LOW. CONSEQUENTLY...IT IS ALSO MORE
AGGRESSIVE AND FASTER SWINGING THE FRONT AND ASCD DRYING THROUGH THE
REGION. OUT OF RESPECT FOR THE GFS AND SINCE THE ECM HAS OVERDEEPENED
SRN STREAM SFC LOWS OUT IN THE D5+ RANGE A TIME OR TWO THIS SEASON
THE CURRENT FCST WILL FAVOR THE WEAKER AND LESS AGGRESSIVE GFS FOR
NOW...WHICH RESULTS IN HIGHER POPS FOR THU. DRIER AIR TAKES HOLD
FROM THU NIGHT INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH TEMPS PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...VCTS BKN030-040CB TIL 26/00Z. BKN-OVC VFR TIL 26/08Z.
MVFR TEMPO IFR...BKN005... CEILINGS BETWEEN 26/08Z AND 26/15Z.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT-SUN...INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SLOWLY DROPS SOUTHWARD ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA AND ITS COASTAL
WATERS. WINDS REACH SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS BY MIDNIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
MORNING FOR OFFSHORE WATERS BETWEEN FLAGLER BEACH AND SEBASTIAN INLET

MON-WED...WRLY FLOW NEAR 20KT EARLY MON MORNING WILL SLACKEN LATE AS
THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH COLLAPSES AND A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS
INTO THE AREA. WINDS VEER ONSHORE AND INCREASE AGAIN TUE...THEN VEER
FURTHER TO SRLY ON WED. SEAS FOR THE MOST PART 2-3FT NEAR SHORE AND
4-5FT OFFSHORE...WITH SOME INCREASE AREAWIDE TUE NIGHT-WED. AS
MENTIONED EARLIER IN THE AFD...THE ECM MAY BE OVERDEEPENING THE SFC
LOW AS IT CROSSES NORTH FL AND MOVES OFFSHORE THE SERN SEABOARD.
IF ITS SUB-1000MB SOLN WERE TO VERIFY...THEN WE`D LIKELY SEE WINDS
AND POSSIBLY SEAS REACH SCA LEVELS BY LATE WED.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD HIGHS FOR THIS WEEKEND

SAT 25 APRSUN 26 APR
DAYTONA BEACH...9393
ORLANDO.........9798
MELBOURNE....... 9792
VERO BEACH......9595


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  71  89  69  82 /  20  50  20  20
MCO  72  90  72  84 /  10  30  10  50
MLB  71  92  73  81 /  20  30  10  40
VRB  71  92  73  84 /  20  20  10  50
LEE  73  86  72  83 /  20  40  10  40
SFB  74  89  72  82 /  10  40  10  40
ORL  74  89  73  82 /  10  40  10  40
FPR  70  93  71  85 /  20  20  10  50

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-
     VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.

&&

$$

LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...WIMME




000
FXUS62 KMLB 251850
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
250 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT...MID LEVEL RIDGE FLATTENS AS SHORTWAVES ROUND THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS SOUTH FROM THE LARGE MID LEVEL LOW JUST EAST
OF NEW ENGLAND. THE NEAR ZONAL FLOW SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH OVER THE
SOUTHEAST HELPS TO CONTINUE TO PUSH THE SURFACE HIGH FURTHER AWAY
FROM FLORIDA AND MAINTAIN A LONG FETCH OF SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS
FROM THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS FLORIDA AND INTO
THE NEARBY ATLANTIC. THE NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALSO KEEPS THE LARGE
WEATHER COMPLEX THAT WAS IMPACTING THE SOUTHEAST AND PART OF THE
PANHANDLE AND NORTH FLORIDA DURING THE DAY NORTH OF EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA. ANY LEFTOVER SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE INTERIOR WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST IMPACTING EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COASTAL
COUNTIES DURING THE EVENING BEFORE EXITING INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
BY MIDNIGHT. WINDS BECOME LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND ONCE THE
CLOUD COVER DISSIPATES AND THE LOWER LAYERS BEGIN TO DECOUPLE.
STRONGER WINDS ABOVE A LIGHTER SOUTHERLY WIND AND ANY GROUND
MOISTURE IS A GOOD COMBINATION FOR LOW CLOUDS FROM A COUPLE OF HOURS
BEFORE SUNRISE AND THE FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER DAY BREAK. BUT IS
DEPENDENT UPON ANY DECOUPLING LATE NIGHT. THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WIND ALSO WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING BELOW THE LOW 70S FOR
MOST OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

SUNDAY...MOISTURE POOLED AHEAD OF THE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD MOVING
BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH SATURDAYS WEATHER TO THE NORTH WILL RESULT
IN A NORTH TO SOUTH RANGE OF RAIN CHANCES FROM AROUND 50 PERCENT
NORTH TO ABOUT A 20 PERCENT FAR SOUTHERN LOCATIONS. THICKER CLOUD
COVER NORTHERN AREAS THAT ARE CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL JET CORE AND
MORE IMPULSED RIPPLING WEST TO EAST IN THE NEAR ZONAL MID LEVEL
FLOW. THERE SHOULD BE A NORTH TO SOUTH RANGE OF HIGHS FROM THE UPPER
80S IN THE NORTH UNDER THE THICKER CLOUD COVER IS TO BE FOUND TO THE
LOW 90S IN THE SOUTHERN LOCATIONS WHERE THERE SHOULD BE A LITTLE MORE
SUN.

MON NGT-TUE...ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING TUE AS THE WEAK BACK DOOR
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS ACROSS THE CWA AND HIGH PRES BUILDS TO THE NORTH.
WEAK WARM FRONTOGENETIC UPGLIDE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE PENINSULA TUE
NIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE CTRL-ERN
GOMEX...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND RAIN CHCS AS A RESULT.

WED-SAT...SFC LOW WILL CROSS THE NERN GOMEX WED AND MOVE UP THE ERN
SEABOARD ON THU. THE ECM IS STRONGER WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH TO
THE NORTH AND RESULTANT SURFACE LOW. CONSEQUENTLY...IT IS ALSO MORE
AGGRESSIVE AND FASTER SWINGING THE FRONT AND ASCD DRYING THROUGH THE
REGION. OUT OF RESPECT FOR THE GFS AND SINCE THE ECM HAS OVERDEEPENED
SRN STREAM SFC LOWS OUT IN THE D5+ RANGE A TIME OR TWO THIS SEASON
THE CURRENT FCST WILL FAVOR THE WEAKER AND LESS AGGRESSIVE GFS FOR
NOW...WHICH RESULTS IN HIGHER POPS FOR THU. DRIER AIR TAKES HOLD
FROM THU NIGHT INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH TEMPS PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...VCTS BKN030-040CB TIL 26/00Z. BKN-OVC VFR TIL 26/08Z.
MVFR TEMPO IFR...BKN005... CEILINGS BETWEEN 26/08Z AND 26/15Z.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT-SUN...INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SLOWLY DROPS SOUTHWARD ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA AND ITS COASTAL
WATERS. WINDS REACH SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS BY MIDNIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
MORNING FOR OFFSHORE WATERS BETWEEN FLAGLER BEACH AND SEBASTIAN INLET

MON-WED...WRLY FLOW NEAR 20KT EARLY MON MORNING WILL SLACKEN LATE AS
THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH COLLAPSES AND A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS
INTO THE AREA. WINDS VEER ONSHORE AND INCREASE AGAIN TUE...THEN VEER
FURTHER TO SRLY ON WED. SEAS FOR THE MOST PART 2-3FT NEAR SHORE AND
4-5FT OFFSHORE...WITH SOME INCREASE AREAWIDE TUE NIGHT-WED. AS
MENTIONED EARLIER IN THE AFD...THE ECM MAY BE OVERDEEPENING THE SFC
LOW AS IT CROSSES NORTH FL AND MOVES OFFSHORE THE SERN SEABOARD.
IF ITS SUB-1000MB SOLN WERE TO VERIFY...THEN WE`D LIKELY SEE WINDS
AND POSSIBLY SEAS REACH SCA LEVELS BY LATE WED.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD HIGHS FOR THIS WEEKEND

SAT 25 APRSUN 26 APR
DAYTONA BEACH...9393
ORLANDO.........9798
MELBOURNE....... 9792
VERO BEACH......9595


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  71  89  69  82 /  20  50  20  20
MCO  72  90  72  84 /  10  30  10  50
MLB  71  92  73  81 /  20  30  10  40
VRB  71  92  73  84 /  20  20  10  50
LEE  73  86  72  83 /  20  40  10  40
SFB  74  89  72  82 /  10  40  10  40
ORL  74  89  73  82 /  10  40  10  40
FPR  70  93  71  85 /  20  20  10  50

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-
     VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.

&&

$$

LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...WIMME




000
FXUS62 KMLB 251850
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
250 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT...MID LEVEL RIDGE FLATTENS AS SHORTWAVES ROUND THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS SOUTH FROM THE LARGE MID LEVEL LOW JUST EAST
OF NEW ENGLAND. THE NEAR ZONAL FLOW SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH OVER THE
SOUTHEAST HELPS TO CONTINUE TO PUSH THE SURFACE HIGH FURTHER AWAY
FROM FLORIDA AND MAINTAIN A LONG FETCH OF SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS
FROM THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS FLORIDA AND INTO
THE NEARBY ATLANTIC. THE NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALSO KEEPS THE LARGE
WEATHER COMPLEX THAT WAS IMPACTING THE SOUTHEAST AND PART OF THE
PANHANDLE AND NORTH FLORIDA DURING THE DAY NORTH OF EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA. ANY LEFTOVER SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE INTERIOR WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST IMPACTING EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COASTAL
COUNTIES DURING THE EVENING BEFORE EXITING INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
BY MIDNIGHT. WINDS BECOME LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND ONCE THE
CLOUD COVER DISSIPATES AND THE LOWER LAYERS BEGIN TO DECOUPLE.
STRONGER WINDS ABOVE A LIGHTER SOUTHERLY WIND AND ANY GROUND
MOISTURE IS A GOOD COMBINATION FOR LOW CLOUDS FROM A COUPLE OF HOURS
BEFORE SUNRISE AND THE FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER DAY BREAK. BUT IS
DEPENDENT UPON ANY DECOUPLING LATE NIGHT. THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WIND ALSO WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING BELOW THE LOW 70S FOR
MOST OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

SUNDAY...MOISTURE POOLED AHEAD OF THE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD MOVING
BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH SATURDAYS WEATHER TO THE NORTH WILL RESULT
IN A NORTH TO SOUTH RANGE OF RAIN CHANCES FROM AROUND 50 PERCENT
NORTH TO ABOUT A 20 PERCENT FAR SOUTHERN LOCATIONS. THICKER CLOUD
COVER NORTHERN AREAS THAT ARE CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL JET CORE AND
MORE IMPULSED RIPPLING WEST TO EAST IN THE NEAR ZONAL MID LEVEL
FLOW. THERE SHOULD BE A NORTH TO SOUTH RANGE OF HIGHS FROM THE UPPER
80S IN THE NORTH UNDER THE THICKER CLOUD COVER IS TO BE FOUND TO THE
LOW 90S IN THE SOUTHERN LOCATIONS WHERE THERE SHOULD BE A LITTLE MORE
SUN.

MON NGT-TUE...ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING TUE AS THE WEAK BACK DOOR
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS ACROSS THE CWA AND HIGH PRES BUILDS TO THE NORTH.
WEAK WARM FRONTOGENETIC UPGLIDE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE PENINSULA TUE
NIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE CTRL-ERN
GOMEX...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND RAIN CHCS AS A RESULT.

WED-SAT...SFC LOW WILL CROSS THE NERN GOMEX WED AND MOVE UP THE ERN
SEABOARD ON THU. THE ECM IS STRONGER WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH TO
THE NORTH AND RESULTANT SURFACE LOW. CONSEQUENTLY...IT IS ALSO MORE
AGGRESSIVE AND FASTER SWINGING THE FRONT AND ASCD DRYING THROUGH THE
REGION. OUT OF RESPECT FOR THE GFS AND SINCE THE ECM HAS OVERDEEPENED
SRN STREAM SFC LOWS OUT IN THE D5+ RANGE A TIME OR TWO THIS SEASON
THE CURRENT FCST WILL FAVOR THE WEAKER AND LESS AGGRESSIVE GFS FOR
NOW...WHICH RESULTS IN HIGHER POPS FOR THU. DRIER AIR TAKES HOLD
FROM THU NIGHT INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH TEMPS PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...VCTS BKN030-040CB TIL 26/00Z. BKN-OVC VFR TIL 26/08Z.
MVFR TEMPO IFR...BKN005... CEILINGS BETWEEN 26/08Z AND 26/15Z.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT-SUN...INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SLOWLY DROPS SOUTHWARD ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA AND ITS COASTAL
WATERS. WINDS REACH SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS BY MIDNIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
MORNING FOR OFFSHORE WATERS BETWEEN FLAGLER BEACH AND SEBASTIAN INLET

MON-WED...WRLY FLOW NEAR 20KT EARLY MON MORNING WILL SLACKEN LATE AS
THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH COLLAPSES AND A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS
INTO THE AREA. WINDS VEER ONSHORE AND INCREASE AGAIN TUE...THEN VEER
FURTHER TO SRLY ON WED. SEAS FOR THE MOST PART 2-3FT NEAR SHORE AND
4-5FT OFFSHORE...WITH SOME INCREASE AREAWIDE TUE NIGHT-WED. AS
MENTIONED EARLIER IN THE AFD...THE ECM MAY BE OVERDEEPENING THE SFC
LOW AS IT CROSSES NORTH FL AND MOVES OFFSHORE THE SERN SEABOARD.
IF ITS SUB-1000MB SOLN WERE TO VERIFY...THEN WE`D LIKELY SEE WINDS
AND POSSIBLY SEAS REACH SCA LEVELS BY LATE WED.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD HIGHS FOR THIS WEEKEND

SAT 25 APRSUN 26 APR
DAYTONA BEACH...9393
ORLANDO.........9798
MELBOURNE....... 9792
VERO BEACH......9595


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  71  89  69  82 /  20  50  20  20
MCO  72  90  72  84 /  10  30  10  50
MLB  71  92  73  81 /  20  30  10  40
VRB  71  92  73  84 /  20  20  10  50
LEE  73  86  72  83 /  20  40  10  40
SFB  74  89  72  82 /  10  40  10  40
ORL  74  89  73  82 /  10  40  10  40
FPR  70  93  71  85 /  20  20  10  50

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-
     VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.

&&

$$

LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...WIMME





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