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000
FXUS62 KMLB 310756
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
356 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS ASCD WITH PASSAGE OF A
STRONG JET FEATURE ACROSS THE PENINSULA HAVE CLEARED THE AREA. A
FEW SPOTS OVER NORTHERN BREVARD COUNTY AND THE CAPE AREA EXPERIENCED
45 TO 55 MPH WINDS WITH PSG OF THE EARLIER STORMS. A FEW SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AHD OF THE PSG OF THE INITIAL FRONT
WHICH HAS CROSSED THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS EARLY
HOUR. RAIN CHCS WL END OVER ALL LAND AREAS BY MID MORNING AS
DRYING BEHIND THE INITIAL FRONT BECOMES PREVALENT OVER THE WHOLE
AREA. TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S FROM AROUND METRO ORLANDO NWD
WITH WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON. SURGE
SWD OF DRYER AND EVENTUALLY COOLER AIR AIR BEHIND THE INITIAL
FRONT WL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TONIGHT TO REACH THE 50S BY DAYBREAK SAT.

SAT-SAT NIGHT...
STRONG CONTINENTAL RIDGE DROPPING OUT OF MANITOBA WILL PUSH A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT THROUGH CENTRAL FL. HOWEVER...BY THE TIME IT
ARRIVES...DRY AIR ADVECTION PATTERN WILL HAVE BEEN IN PLACE FOR A
SOLID 24-36HRS. WITH MOST OF THE MOISTURE SCOURED OUT BY DEEP AND
PERSISTENT WRLY FLOW...PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE TOO LOW TO MENTION.

TIGHT PGRAD WILL PREVAIL BEHIND THE FRONT AS THE CONTINENTAL RIDGE
BUILDS ACRS THE MS RIVER VALLEY AND INTERACTS WITH A STORM SYSTEM
EXPECTED TO DVLP OFF THE MID ATLC COAST. A FRESH TO STRONG NW BREEZE
WILL PUSH NOTICEABLY COOLER AIR INTO CENTRAL FL WITH MOST AFTN HI
TEMPS STRUGGLING TO WARM MORE THAN 10F FROM THEIR MORNING MINS...
READINGS IN THE M/U60S WILL BE ARND 15F BLO AVG.

CAA PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS THE RIDGE AXIS DRIFTS E OF
THE MS RIVER...WHILE THE STORM SYSTEM LIFTS INTO THE NEW ENGLAND
COASTAL WATERS AND DVLPS INTO A FULL BLOWN NOR`EASTER. TEMPS IN THE
L/M40S OVER MOST OF THE CWA WILL CONTINUE ARND 15F BLO AVG AND MAY
APPROACH RECORD MINS BY BY DAYBREAK.

SUN-SUN NIGHT...
COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AS THE CONTINENTAL RIDGE PUSHES
INTO THE ERN CONUS. AS IT DOES...SFC WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND
GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE N/NE THRU THE DAY...THEN TO THE NE OVERNIGHT.
DESPITE MSUNNY SKIES...MAX TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE 70F MARK
OVER MOST OF THE CWA...THOUGH THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION SHOULD WARM
INTO THE L70S. THE NE FLOW OVERNIGHT WILL PUSH MODIFIED OCEAN AIR
ONSHORE WHILE THE PGRAD REMAINS TIGHT ENOUGH TO PREVENT DECOUPLING.
MIN TEMPS 5-10F WARMER THAN SAT BUT STILL 5-10F BLOW AVG...U40S/L50S
INTERIOR AND M/U50S ALONG THE COAST.

MON-THU...
GRADUAL WARMING TREND THRU THE WEEK AS THE CONTINENTAL RIDGE A
PUSHES INTO THE W ATLC. PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW MAX TEMPS
TO RECOVER TO NEAR AVG BY MID WEEK...MIN TEMPS A FEW DEG ABV AVG.
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL EVENTUALLY CONCENTRATE BLO H85 TO FOR ISOLD
SHRAS TO DVLP...BUT THESE RARELY HAVE ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACT...
ESPECIALLY AS CAPPING IN THE H85-H70 LYR SHOULD REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH
TO PREVENT DEEP CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDS NEXT 24H.

&&

.MARINE...
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT WITH INCREASING
GRADIENT WINDS ASCD WITH APPROACHING STRONG FRONT. SCA WL COMMENCE
OVER ALL MARINE AREA BEFORE DAYBREAK SATURDAY.

SAT-SAT NIGHT...HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS AS A STRONG COLD
FRONT PUSHES THRU THE LCL ATLC BY MIDDAY. FRESH TO STRONG NW
BREEZE WILL PREVAIL IN ITS WAKE...ALLOWING SEAS TO BUILD TO 4-6FT
NEARSHORE AND 7-9FT OFFSHORE...DOMINANT PDS AOB 6-8SEC.

SUN-TUE...
POOR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A STRONG HI PRES
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLC/DEEP SOUTH THEN INTO THE W ATLC.
SFC/BNDRY LYR WINDS BCMG A MODERATE TO FRESH NRLY BREEZE ON SUN...
THEN NE MON/TUE. SEAS SUBSIDING TO 3-5FT NEARSHORE AND 6-7FT
OFFSHORE ON SUN. NE FLOW MON/TUE WILL PUSH A SWELL COMPONENT IN THE
E FL COAST...ALLOWING SEAS TO REBUILD TO 4-6FT NEARSHORE AND 6-8FT
OFFSHORE. ROUGH CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE GULFSTREAM DUE TO THE
OPPOSING OPPOSING NRLY SFC WINDS AND SRLY OCEAN CURRENT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SAT...STRONG DRY AIR ADVECTION PATTERN SAT AFTN BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT WITH NW SFC WINDS 15-20MPH...TRANSPORT WINDS 25-30MPH. MIN RH
VALUES EXPECTED TO FALL BLO 40PCT AREAWIDE...AOB 25PCT FOR 4-6HRS
NORTH OF LAKE KISSIMMEE-LAKE HARNEY-LAKE GEORGE. RED FLAG WARNINGS
ANTICIPATED...THOUGH OVERALL IMPACT OF THE DRY AIR WILL BE STUNTED
BY ERC VALUES THAT WILL BE LARGELY IN THE M/U20S.

SUN...
DRY AIR WILL LINGER ACRS THE INTERIOR AS SFC/TRANSPORT WINDS
DIMINISH AND VEER TO THE N/NE. MIN RH VALUES AOB 35PCT FOR 4-6HRS
NORTH OF LAKE KISSIMMEE-LAKE HARNEY-LAKE GEORGE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR NOVEMBER 2

DAB 43 SET IN 1993
MCO 46 SET IN 1993
MLB 45 SET IN 1993
VRB 47 SET IN 1993

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  78  55  63  45 /  10   0  10   0
MCO  79  56  66  42 /  10   0  10   0
MLB  80  58  65  46 /  20   0  10   0
VRB  82  61  67  48 /  20   0  10   0
LEE  77  57  65  41 /   0   0  10   0
SFB  78  57  66  42 /  10   0  10   0
ORL  79  57  66  42 /  10   0  10   0
FPR  82  58  67  47 /  20   0  10   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM EDT SATURDAY TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO JUPITER INLET OUT 60 NM
     OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PENDERGRAST
LONG TERM....BRAGAW







000
FXUS62 KMLB 310108
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
900 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...

...BECOMING MUCH COOLER AND DRIER THIS WEEKEND...

CURRENT-REST OF THE NIGHT...WEATHER RADAR MOSIAC LOOP SHOWING LARGE
AREA SHOWERS ANS ISOLATED STORMS JUST TO THE NORTH OF EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA. THIS AREA OF PRECIP WAS LOCATED UNDER THE LEFT FRONT
QUADRANT OF A JET MAX THAT WAS CROSSING OVER EXTREME SOUTH FLORIDA
AND THE KEYS. RADAR LOOP WAS ALSO SHOWING ENOUGH SHOWERS AND A FEW
STORMS IN THE EAST CENTRAL GULF THAT WERE HOLDING TOGETHER AS THEY
MOVED EASTWARD TOWARD THE WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST. LATEST RUC40
UPPER LEVEL WIND SPEED FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SHOWS THE
LEFT FRONT QUADRANT SLOWING MOVING SOUTH. ALTHOUGH THE THERMAL
SUPPORT IN THE FORM OF INSTABILITY MAY DIMINISH THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH MID AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE TO KEEP THE MENTION OF SLIGHT
SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT.

LOWERED POPS TO A SLIGHT CHANCE EVERYWHERE AFTER 01Z/9PM.

PREVIOUS ZONES DISCUSSION

A FRONT...THE FIRST OF TWO THAT WILL AFFECT OUR AREA OVER THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...CURRENTLY LIES ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA. LIMITED
MOISTURE...ALBEIT AN INCREASE CONSIDERING HOW DRY IT HAS BEEN THE
PAST FEW DAYS...SHOULD ALLOW A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORM TO DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. CURRENTLY
LIMITING POPS TO AROUND 30 PERCENT AS CUMULUS FIELD REMAINS
SLOPPY AND DISORGANIZED THANKS TO DEBRIS CLOUDINESS THAT PASSED
OVER OUR NORTHERN SECTIONS LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON.

A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS REMAINS IN THE FORECAST DURING THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
AGAIN..COVERAGE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW GIVEN THE TIME OF
DAY...LACK OF LARGE SCALE INSTABILITY...AND LIMITED MOISTURE. LOWS
REMAIN IN THE 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE TROUGH WILL PUSH
OFF THE COAST EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AND TAKE ANY RAIN CHANCES
WITH IT.

MUCH OF THE DAY ON FRIDAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY AS WE AWAIT THE
PASSAGE OF THE SECOND AND MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT.
OVERALL...EXPECTING A RAIN FREE DAY AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND
TODAY`S BOUNDARY. THE SECONDARY FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE REGION
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY...USHERING IN THE CHILLIEST AIR
MASS OF THE SEASON SINCE LATE MARCH / EARLY APRIL. HIGHS FORECAST IN
THE MID/UPPER 60S DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY WITH BRISK/STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS. TEMPS WILL FALL RAPIDLY SATURDAY EVENING INTO THE
LOW/MID 40S BY SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED
DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS ON SATURDAY SO APPARENT TEMPERATURES
(DARE I SAY WIND CHILLS) WILL BE EVEN COLDER.

SUNDAY - NEXT WEEK (FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)...NEXT WEEK...A LARGE
PROGRESSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OH/TN VALLEY
SUNDAY WL MIGRATE EWD TO THE MID ATLC COAST MON AFTN. LOCAL WINDS WL
STEADILY VEER ONSHORE...PROVIDING A GRADUAL MODERATION IN AVAILABLE
MOISTURE AND TEMPS. BREEZY CONDS SUNDAY WL ABATE SOMEWHAT...ESP ON
MONDAY. SOME LOW TOPPED MARINE SHOWERS WL BECOME PSBL TUE THROUGH
MIDWEEK WITH A LONG FETCH OF EASTERLIES SETTING UP UNDERNEATH A
SLOWLY WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR. KEEPING A VCSH TREND NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE FRONT LEFT QUADRANT
OF A 250MB JET CORE DROPS SOUTH OVERNIGHT. THERMAL SUPPORT LESSENS
BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LEFT OVER DYNAMIC SUPPORT TO TRIGGER SOME
LIGHT LOWER MID DECK RAIN.

PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION
MAINLY VFR EXPECTED. ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORM POSSIBLE PRIMARILY FROM
KMCO/KTIX NORTH...THOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME.
ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN A POSSIBILITY DURING THE OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER
THE OVERALL IMPACT EXPECTED TO BE LOW. LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...

CURRENT-OVERNIGHT...LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVING DOWN THE PENINSULA BECOME WEST THEN NORTHWEST AFTER
SUNRISE AS THE BOUNDARY PUSHES SLOWLY SOUTH. LIGHT RAINSHOWERS
VICINITY OF AND DOWNWIND OF THE GULF STREAM.

PREVIOUS MARINE DISCUSSION

ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS PUSHING OFF THE COAST THIS
EVENING...PRIMARILY NORTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL. LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW
BEHIND THIS AFTERNOONS SEABREEZE WILL SWITCH BACK TOWARDS THE NORTH
AND WEST AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS DOWN THE PENINSULA.

AS BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT WINDS
WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE W/NW BECOMING 10-15 KNOTS LATE/TOWARD
DAYBREAK FRIDAY. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 1-2 FEET TODAY AND UP TO 2-3
FEET OFFSHORE INTO TONIGHT.

INITIAL HEADLINES EXPECTED FRIDAY OVER A PORTION OF THE AREA FOR
DETERIORATING MARINE CONDITIONS BEHIND FIRST COLD FRONT. AREA WIDE
ADVISORY CONDS ARE ADVERTISED THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEHIND PSG OF
THE STRONG COLD FRONT. ITS EXPECTED ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL
LINGER INTO MON AND PERHAPS TUE DUE TO ROBUST GRADIENT WINDS AND
EVENTUALLY A DEVELOPED OPEN SWELL FETCH ASCD WITH STRONG POST
FRONTAL HIGH PRESSURE AS IT MOVES EWD NORTH OF THE STATE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  61  77  54  66 /  30  10   0   0
MCO  63  79  55  67 /  30  10   0   0
MLB  63  79  58  67 /  20  20   0   0
VRB  64  81  55  70 /  20  20   0   0
LEE  61  78  55  66 /  30  10   0   0
SFB  63  79  56  66 /  30  10   0   0
ORL  64  79  57  66 /  30  10   0   0
FPR  62  81  56  70 /  20  20   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

IMPACT WX...CRISTALDI
FORECASTS...WIMMER







000
FXUS62 KMLB 301900
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
300 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...

...BECOMING MUCH COOLER AND DRIER THIS WEEKEND...

A FRONT...THE FIRST OF TWO THAT WILL AFFECT OUR AREA OVER THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...CURRENTLY LIES ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA. LIMITED
MOISTURE...ALBEIT AN INCREASE CONSIDERING HOW DRY IT HAS BEEN THE
PAST FEW DAYS...SHOULD ALLOW A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORM TO DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. CURRENTLY
LIMITING POPS TO AROUND 30 PERCENT AS CUMULUS FIELD REMAINS
SLOPPY AND DISORGANIZED THANKS TO DEBRIS CLOUDINESS THAT PASSED
OVER OUR NORTHERN SECTIONS LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON.

A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS REMAINS IN THE FORECAST DURING THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
AGAIN..COVERAGE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW GIVEN THE TIME OF
DAY...LACK OF LARGE SCALE INSTABILITY...AND LIMITED MOISTURE. LOWS
REMAIN IN THE 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE TROUGH WILL PUSH
OFF THE COAST EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AND TAKE ANY RAIN CHANCES
WITH IT.

MUCH OF THE DAY ON FRIDAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY AS WE AWAIT THE
PASSAGE OF THE SECOND AND MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT.
OVERALL...EXPECTING A RAIN FREE DAY AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND
TODAYS BOUNDARY. THE SECONDARY FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION DURING THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY...USHERING IN THE
CHILLIEST AIR MASS OF THE SEASON SINCE LATE MARCH / EARLY APRIL.
HIGHS FORECAST IN THE MID/UPPER 60S DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY
WITH BRISK/STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS. TEMPS WILL FALL RAPIDLY
SATURDAY EVENING INTO THE LOW/MID 40S BY SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS ON SATURDAY
SO APPARENT TEMPERATURES (DARE I SAY WIND CHILLS) WILL BE EVEN
COLDER.

SUNDAY - NEXT WEEK (FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)...NEXT WEEK...A LARGE
PROGRESSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OH/TN VALLEY
SUNDAY WL MIGRATE EWD TO THE MID ATLC COAST MON AFTN. LOCAL WINDS
WL STEADILY VEER ONSHORE...PROVIDING A GRADUAL MODERATION IN AVBL
MOISTURE AND TEMPS. BREEZY CONDS SUNDAY WL ABATE SOMEWHAT...ESP ON
MONDAY. SOME LOW TOPPED MARINE SHOWERS WL BECOME PSBL TUE THROUGH
MIDWEEK WITH A LONG FETCH OF EASTERLIES SETTING UP UNDERNEATH A
SLOWLY WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR EXPECTED. ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORM POSSIBLE PRIMARILY
FROM KMCO/KTIX NORTH...THOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME.
ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN A POSSIBILITY DURING THE OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER
...OVERALL IMPACT EXPECTED TO BE LOW. LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS PUSHING OFF THE COAST THIS
EVENING...PRIMARILY NORTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL. LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW
BEHIND THIS AFTERNOONS SEABREEZE WILL SWITCH BACK TOWARDS THE NORTH
AND WEST AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS DOWN THE PENINSULA.

AS BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT WINDS
WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE W/NW BECOMING 10-15 KNOTS LATE/TOWARD
DAYBREAK FRIDAY. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 1-2 FEET TODAY AND UP TO 2-3
FEET OFFSHORE INTO TONIGHT.

INITIAL HEADLINES EXPECTED FRIDAY OVER A PORTION OF THE AREA FOR
DETERIORATING MARINE CONDITIONS BEHIND FIRST COLD FRONT. AREA WIDE
ADVISORY CONDS ARE ADVERTISED THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEHIND PSG OF
THE STRONG COLD FRONT. ITS EXPECTED ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL
LINGER INTO MON AND PERHAPS TUE DUE TO ROBUST GRADIENT WINDS AND
EVENTUALLY A DEVELOPED OPEN SWELL FETCH ASCD WITH STRONG POST
FRONTAL HIGH PRESSURE AS IT MOVES EWD NORTH OF THE STATE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  61  77  54  66 /  30  10   0   0
MCO  63  79  55  67 /  30  10   0   0
MLB  63  79  58  67 /  20  20   0   0
VRB  64  81  55  70 /  20  20   0   0
LEE  61  78  55  66 /  30  10   0   0
SFB  63  79  56  66 /  30  10   0   0
ORL  64  79  57  66 /  30  10   0   0
FPR  62  81  56  70 /  20  20   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

FORECAST/AVIATION...ULRICH
RADAR/IMPACT WEATHER....VOLKMER









000
FXUS62 KMLB 301410
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1010 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.UPDATE...
A DRY START TO THE DAY THIS MORNING WITH LIMITED RETURNS ON RADAR
SAVE FOR SOME SHOWERS OVER THE GULF STREAM WATERS. A FRONT
ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA WILL GRADUALLY SINK SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION
TODAY. SOME MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL HELP
INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE
FORECAST FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

OVERALL DYNAMICS REMAIN LESS THAN STELLAR...WITH WEAK MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES PRESENT IN THIS MORNING`S SOUNDINGS. WITH AMPLE DAYTIME
HEATING AND THE PRESENCE OF DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S...EXPECT
INCREASING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO HELP AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY NEAR AND NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 4. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO MOVE TOWARDS THE EAST.

OVERALL FORECAST PACKAGE REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE THIS MORNING SO AM
NOT ANTICIPATING ANY UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR. A FEW SHOWERS FORECAST TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING FROM KMCO/KISM NORTHWARD. TEMPO MVFR/IFR EXPECTED IN
ANY SHOWER/STORM THAT MOVES OVER TERMINALS...HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE
IS LOW ON EXACT PLACEMENT/TIMING OF CONVECTION AT THIS TIME. VCSH
INSERTED INTO THE TAFS AFTER 20Z/21Z FOR NOW. GENERALLY LIGHT
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.MARINE...
TODAY/TONIGHT...WINDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT AROUND 10 KNOTS
OR LESS AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE INTO TODAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES
ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AND TOWARD THE REGION. EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
WILL FORM INTO THE AFTERNOON AND MOVE INLAND...WHICH WILL ALLOW
WINDS NEAR THE COAST TO BECOME E/NE. ISOLATED OFFSHORE MOVING STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFT INTO THE EVENING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...MAINLY NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET.

AS BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT WINDS
WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE W/NW BECOMING 10-15 KNOTS LATE/TOWARD
DAYBREAK FRIDAY. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 1-2 FEET TODAY AND UP TO 2-3
FEET OFFSHORE INTO TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  83  61  78  54 /  30  30  10   0
MCO  86  63  79  55 /  20  30  10   0
MLB  84  63  79  58 /  20  20  20   0
VRB  83  64  81  55 /  10  20  20   0
LEE  85  62  78  55 /  30  30  10   0
SFB  85  63  80  56 /  30  30  10   0
ORL  86  64  79  58 /  30  30  10   0
FPR  83  62  81  55 /  10  20  20   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION/FORECAST...ULRICH
RADAR/IMPACT WX....VOLKMER









000
FXUS62 KMLB 300732
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
332 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
...A CHANCE OF RAIN TODAY AND TONIGHT...
...BECOMING MUCH COOLER AND DRIER THIS WEEKEND...

TODAY/TONIGHT...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH CENTRAL FLORIDA LATER
THIS AFT AND THEN BEGIN TO PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION INTO
TONIGHT. INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY AND SUFFICIENT
HEATING/INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR STORMS MAINLY INTO LATE AFT AND THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. ANY CONVECTION THAT RESULTS SHOULD WEAKEN BY LATE EVENING.
HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS PAST MIDNIGHT AS
APPROACHING MID LEVEL S/W TROUGH MAY AID IN LIFT ALONG AND AHEAD OF
FRONT. HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOW TO MID 80S AND LOWS WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOW TO MID 60S.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NE FL COAST
EARLY FRIDAY WILL PULL AN INITIAL COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE MORNING. SOME SPOTTY MORNING SHOWERS WL BE POSSIBLE
MAINLY ALONG THE COAST AND MARINE AREAS BEFORE DRIER AIR WORKS
INTO THE AREA INTO THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT STEADY CLEARING WITH
HIGHS MAKING IT TO AROUND 80. PRESENCE OF THE DRYER AIRMASS WL
ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 50S BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY.

A MORE POTENT COLD FRONT BRINGING THE COOLEST AIR SWD INTO THE
REGION SO FAR THIS SEASON WILL ARRIVE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. THE
FRONT WL NOT BE ACCOMPANIED BY MENTIONABLE PRECIP CHCS...HOWEVER
A NOTABLE INCREASE IN WINDS ALONG WITH DRYING AND A NOTICEABLE
AFTERNOON CHILL CAN BE EXPECTED. HIGHS ARE ONLY EXPECTED IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S SAT AFTN WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS. TEMPS
WL QUICKLY FALL WITH SUNSET THROUGH THE 50S WITH LOWS BOTTOMING
OUT IN THE 40S FOR ALL BUT THE BARRIER ISLANDS BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY.
WINDS AS AN ADDED COMPONENT WL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COLDER.

NEXT WEEK...A LARGE PROGRESSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE OH/TN VALLEY SUNDAY WL MIGRATE EWD TO THE MID ATLC COAST
MON AFTN. LOCAL WINDS WL STEADILY VEER ONSHORE...PROVIDING A
GRADUAL MODERATION IN AVBL MOISTURE AND TEMPS. BREEZY CONDS SUNDAY
WL ABATE SOMEWHAT...ESP ON MONDAY. SOME LOW TOPPED MARINE SHOWERS
WL BECOME PSBL TUE THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH A LONG FETCH OF EASTERLIES
SETTING UP UNDERNEATH A SLOWLY WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PATCHY FOG WILL BE ABLE TO
PRODUCE TEMPO IFR/MVFR CONDS IN A FEW AREAS TOWARD DAYBREAK.
SHOWERS AND ISO STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THAT WILL BEGIN TO CROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO TONIGHT. BEST RAIN
CHANCES WILL EXIST FROM THE ORLANDO AREA NORTHWARD FROM LATE AFT
INTO EARLY EVE WITH TEMPO IFR/MVFR CONDS EXPECTED WITH ANY
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS. HOWEVER FOR NOW WILL JUST MENTION VCSH
IN THE TAFS.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY/TONIGHT...WINDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT AROUND 10 KNOTS
OR LESS AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE INTO TODAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES
ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AND TOWARD THE REGION. EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
WILL FORM INTO THE AFTERNOON AND MOVE INLAND...WHICH WILL ALLOW
WINDS NEAR THE COAST TO BECOME E/NE. ISOLATED OFFSHORE MOVING STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFT INTO THE EVENING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...MAINLY NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET.

AS BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT WINDS
WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE W/NW BECOMING 10-15 KNOTS LATE/TOWARD
DAYBREAK FRIDAY. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 1-2 FEET TODAY AND UP TO 2-3
FEET OFFSHORE INTO TONIGHT.

INITIAL HEADLINES EXPECTED FRIDAY OVER A PORTION OF THE AREA FOR
DETERIORATING MARINE CONDITIONS BEHIND FIRST COLD FRONT. AREA WIDE
ADVISORY CONDS ARE ADVERTISED THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEHIND PSG OF
THE STRONG COLD FRONT. ITS EXPECTED ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL
LINGER INTO MON AND PERHAPS TUE DUE TO ROBUST GRADIENT WINDS AND
EVENTUALLY A DEVELOPED OPEN SWELL FETCH ASCD WITH STRONG POST
FRONTAL HIGH PRESSURE AS IT MOVES EWD NORTH OF THE STATE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NOTICEABLY DRYER CONDS WL OCCUR BEHIND THE INITIAL COLD FRONT FRI.
RH VALUES IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S ARE POSSIBLE FOR SEVERAL HOURS
INLAND FROM AROUND OSCEOLA NORTH. A STRONGER FRONT ON SATURDAY
IS EXPECTED TO BRING MIN RH VALUES DOWN INTO THE MID TO UPR 20S
ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE INLAND COUNTIES.
ERC VALUES WL NEED TO RISE TO A HIGHER OBSERVED LEVEL FOR INSTANTANEOUS
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS TO BE MET...HOWEVER THE WIND AND RH VALUES
ADVERTISED HAVE NOT BEEN EXPERIENCED FOR AWHILE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  83  61  78  54 /  30  30  10   0
MCO  86  63  79  55 /  20  30  10   0
MLB  84  63  79  58 /  20  20  20   0
VRB  83  64  81  55 /  10  20  20   0
LEE  85  62  78  55 /  30  30  10   0
SFB  85  63  80  56 /  30  30  10   0
ORL  86  64  79  58 /  30  30  10   0
FPR  83  62  81  55 /  10  20  20   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WEITLICH
LONG TERM....PENDERGRAST







000
FXUS62 KMLB 300056
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
856 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WINDS ARE BECOMING LIGHT ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. A COLD
FRONT IS SETTLING INTO THE SE US AND NORTHERN FL. LIGHT WINDS
OVERNIGHT AND THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY WILL ALLOW FOR SOME PATCHY
FOG OVERNIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. WILL UPDATE THE ZONES TO
INCLUDE PATCHY FOG FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA AWAY FROM THE
COAST. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN
BE POSSIBLE LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE WEAKENING FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA. TEMPERATURES LOOK ON TRACK TO FALL GENERALLY INTO
THE LOWER-MID 60S ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AROUND 09Z. PATCHY FOG WILL
THEN BE POSSIBLE AT THE TERMINALS CAUSING PERIODS OF MVFR
VISIBILITIES AND MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW-SCT005 CEILING. CONDITIONS
SHOULD THEN RETURN TO VFR AFTER 13Z WITH N/NW WINDS
INCREASING...THEN TURNING ONSHORE IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE
COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH A GENERALLY E/NE FLOW AT 5 TO 10
KNOTS ACROSS THE WATERS. WINDS SHOULD TURN TO THE N/NW AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WILL MAKE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR THE UPDATE.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE/MARINE/AVIATION...24/HUBBARD








000
FXUS62 KMLB 291909
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
309 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT THROUGH
THE STATE THROUGH TONIGHT AHEAD OF A MORE POTENT TROUGH AXIS THAT
IS SET TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE
A WEAKER FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED BEGINNING TOMORROW NIGHT WITH
THE MORE PRONOUNCED FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE AREA BY THE
WEEKEND.

THROUGH FRIDAY...WEAK GRADIENT FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL KEEP THE
FLOW FAIRLY LIGHT WITH MINIMAL IMPACTS FROM THE SEA BREEZE.  MOIST
AIR AT THE SURFACE COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL CAUSE
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG ESPECIALLY IN INTERIOR
AREAS FROM VOLUSIA THROUGH ORANGE COUNTY. FOG LIFTING AFTER SUNSET
WILL GIVE WAY TO A SEASONABLY WARM DAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW
TO MID 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. GIVEN THE WARM AND FAIRLY MOIST
AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE FIRST APPROACHING BOUNDARY...MODEL SOUNDINGS
ARE INDICATING AN INCREASE IN INSTABILITY WITH LI APPROACHING -5 AND
CAPE INCREASING TO OVER 1000 J/KG. NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE
THERMODYNAMICS BUT ENOUGH TO WARRANT THE MENTION OF A SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY BEGINNING TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORM THREAT SHOULD
END AFTER SUNSET WITH LINGERING MORE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THE NEXT REINFORCING FRONT IS SET PUSH IN
THE NORTHERN ZONES BY FRIDAY NIGHT BRING MUCH DRIER AIR AND COOLER
TEMPS.

FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

SAT-TUE...SIGNIFICANT SHIFTS HAVE OCCURRED IN THE MODELS INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH GFS/ECMWF DISPLAYING CLOSED LOW IN AMPLIFYING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING DEEPER ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS
AIDS IN STRONGER CAA AND BREEZY N/NW FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT INTO SAT
WITH MODELS ALSO SLOWING THE SHIFT TO LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW SUN.
HAVE LOWERED TEMPS CLOSER TO MEX GUIDANCE VALUES WITH HIGHS NOW
FORECAST IN THE LOW/MID 70S SAT/SUN AND MIN TEMPS AS LOW AS THE MID
TO UPPER/40S ACROSS THE INTERIOR SAT NIGHT.

LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS ELEVATED AND BECOMES MORE ONSHORE INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE TEMPS BACK TO MORE NORMAL
VALUES. THIS WILL ALSO LEAD TO ISOLATED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS MOVING ONSHORE...MAINLY ALONG THE COAST.
&&

.AVIATION...ANOTHER NIGHT OF WEAK WINDS AND SHALLOW NEAR SFC
MOISTURE WILL PROVIDE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE
REGION.  THIS WILL MAINLY BE IN FORM OF SHALLOW GROUND FOG SIMILAR
TO LAST NIGHT. SOME SITES MAY BRIEFLY SEE VSBYS IN IFR RANGE...BUT
OVERALL CHCS FOR THIS ARE LOW AND SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED.
THEREFORE...WILL SHOW SEVERAL HOURS OF BCFG BUT KEEP VISIBILITIES IN
MVFR RANGES TO BEST CONVEY FOG POTENTIAL. COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE
SOME ISOLD TO SCT SHRA IN THE REGION ON THU...BUT THESE WILL MAINLY
OCCUR AFTER 18Z.


&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS STRETCHED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS. WEAK GRADIENT FLOW THROUGH TONIGHT WILL
KEEP WINDS AND SEAS FAIRLY CALM. PATTERN TRANSITIONS TOMORROW AS
THE FIRST OF TWO FRONTS SHIFTS THROUGH THE WATERS. THE FIRST FRONT
WILL PASS SOUTH BY TOMORROW NIGHT GIVING THE COASTAL WATERS A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR A STORM THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THE NEXT
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE BY LATE FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY. WINDS
VEERING TO THE NW WILL INCREASE TO OVER 20 KTS WITH NEAR SHORE
WAVES INCREASING TO AROUND 5 FT AND OFF SHORE UP TO 8 FT THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. PATTERN
TRANSITIONS BEGINNING TOMORROW EVENING AS A FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH
THE AREA BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH FRIDAY. BY
FRIDAY NIGHT TO EARLY SATURDAY A SECOND REINFORCING FRONT WILL
BRING BREEZY AND MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. 20 FT WINDS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS ON SATURDAY WITH RH DROPPING
TO AROUND 25 PERCENT IN INTERIOR AREAS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  63  81  62  79 /   0  40  40  20
MCO  63  84  64  81 /   0  30  30  20
MLB  64  81  66  82 /   0  20  20  20
VRB  63  82  64  83 /  10  20  30  30
LEE  65  83  63  80 /   0  40  30  10
SFB  64  83  64  81 /   0  30  30  20
ORL  66  84  65  80 /   0  30  30  20
FPR  62  82  62  83 /  10  20  30  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WX...TBW20/BARRON
AVIATION...TBW88/GITTINGER








000
FXUS62 KMLB 291205
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
805 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS HAS DROPPED INTO THE REGION THIS
MORNING AS MID-UPPER RIDGE CENTER CONTINUES TO MOVER FURTHER EAST
INTO THE ATLANTIC. WITH RIDGE AXIS ALMOST DIRECTLY OVERHEAD PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL REMAIN WEAK WITH LIGHT EAST FLOW DEVELOPING WITH THE
SEA BREEZE IN THE AFTERNOON.

THE SOUTHEAST WIND SURGE THAT BROUGHT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
LOCAL ATLANTIC HAS DIMINISHED AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHERLY AS
WELL AS LOSING MOST OF THE NOCTURNAL LAND BREEZE BOUNDARIES THAT
HELPED THE CONVERGENCE. WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF ISOLATED SHOWERS
OVER THE WATERS THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING...BUT THEY WILL STAY
AWAY FROM LAND.

ANY LINGERING FOG WILL BURN OFF OVER THE NEXT HOUR WITH FAIR WEATHER
CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT TURNING SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE AFTERNOON.

ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPS EXPECTED AGAIN IN THE MID 80S...A FEW UPPER
80S WILL BE POSSIBLE INTERIOR.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR NEXT 24 HOURS. TEMPO/BRIEF PATCHY GROUND FOG
THROUGH 13Z.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE SOUTH OVER THE AREA
WITH PRESSURE GRADIENT COLLAPSING. THIS WILL PRODUCE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS WITH A EAST SEA BREEZE 5-10
KNOTS NEAR THE COAST. SEAS 1-2 FEET PRIMARILY IN A SWELL.

MARINE CONVERGENCE BAND CURRENTLY OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL DIMINISH
THROUGH LATE MORNING.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

MOSES/VOLKMER







000
FXUS62 KMLB 290826
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
426 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE ATLC ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A
SMALL AND TEMPORARY SURGE OF SE FLOW. BUT SUPPORT FOR THESE
SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH LATER THIS MORNING AS PRES GRAD COLLAPSES
INVOF APPROACHING LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. THAT SAID...A COUPLE
SHOWERS MAY REACH THE COAST EARLY THIS MORNING BUT MOST WILL
REMAIN OVER THE ATLC. ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPS EXPECTED AGAIN WITH
MID 80S WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. A LIGHT EAST SEA BREEZE
WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST. A FEW UPPER 80S WILL BE POSSIBLE
INTERIOR.

TONIGHT...DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT
WILL REACH NORTH FL BY DAYBREAK THU. LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID
60S WITH PATCHY FOG.

THU-FRI...COLD FRONT SHIFTS SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH FLORIDA THU AND
THEN THE MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE GFS HAVE CONTINUED TO SPEED UP THE
PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE AREA FRI. INCREASED POPS TO 30%
THU AFT AND EVE FROM ORLANDO NORTH AS SLIGHTLY GREATER MOISTURE
INDICATED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ALSO...INSTABILITY IS RATHER WEAK BUT
COULD ALSO SEE ISO STORMS DEVELOP FROM ANY BOUNDARY COLLISIONS LATE
THU IN NRN AREAS AND SHIFT EAST. CONVERSELY FOR FRIDAY...HAVE
LOWERED RAIN CHANCES DOWN TO 20% MOST AREAS DUE TO TREND OF A FASTER
FRONTAL PASSAGE. ANY CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO
SHIFT OFFSHORE BY EARLY FRI EVE.

SAT-TUE...SIGNIFICANT SHIFTS HAVE OCCURRED IN THE MODELS INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH GFS/ECMWF DISPLAYING CLOSED LOW IN AMPLIFYING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING DEEPER ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS
AIDS IN STRONGER CAA AND BREEZY N/NW FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT INTO SAT
WITH MODELS ALSO SLOWING THE SHIFT TO LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW SUN.
HAVE LOWERED TEMPS CLOSER TO MEX GUIDANCE VALUES WITH HIGHS NOW
FORECAST IN THE LOW/MID 70S SAT/SUN AND MIN TEMPS AS LOW AS THE MID
TO UPPER/40S ACROSS THE INTERIOR SAT NIGHT.

LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS ELEVATED AND BECOMES MORE ONSHORE INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE TEMPS BACK TO MORE NORMAL
VALUES. THIS WILL ALSO LEAD TO ISOLATED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS MOVING ONSHORE...MAINLY ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR NEXT 24 HOURS. TEMPO/BRIEF PATCHY FOG THROUGH 13Z AT
SOME TERMINALS. ISOLD ATLC SHRA WILL APPROACH THE COAST THIS
MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...A SMALL SURGE IN E/SE FLOW HAS PRODUCED A MARINE
CONVERGENCE BAND WITH SHOWERS PUSHING WESTWARD TOWARD THE COAST.
LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SETTLE SOUTH INTO THE AREA AND PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL COLLAPSE. THIS WILL PRODUCE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS WITH A EAST SEA BREEZE 5-10 KNOTS NEAR
THE COAST. SEAS 1-2 FEET PRIMARILY IN A SWELL.

THU-SUN...COLD FRONT MOVES INTO NORTH FLORIDA THU AND THEN PUSHES
ACROSS THE REGION FRI. RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS OR
LESS EXPECTED THU/THU NIGHT WITH SEAS 2-3 FEET. WINDS THEN INCREASE
OUT OF THE NW BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY...EVENTUALLY INCREASING UP TO
20-25 KNOTS SATURDAY PRODUCING HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE WATERS. WINDS SLOWLY VEER TO THE N/NE INTO SUNDAY AND DECREASE
SLIGHTLY BUT POOR TO HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  84  63  82  62 /  10  10  30  30
MCO  86  63  85  64 /   0  10  20  20
MLB  84  64  82  66 /  10  10  10  20
VRB  84  63  83  64 /  10  10  10  10
LEE  86  65  84  63 /   0  10  30  30
SFB  86  64  84  64 /   0  10  30  30
ORL  87  66  85  65 /   0  10  30  30
FPR  83  62  83  62 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KELLY
LONG TERM....WEITLICH












000
FXUS62 KMLB 290116
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
915 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.UPDATE...

CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS AREAWIDE. WINDS HAVE STAYED UP
SO FAR THIS EVENING...AS THE BLYR HAS BEEN SLOWER TO DECOUPLE. THIS
IS KEEPING TEMPS UP IN THE U60S-L70S ATTM.

OVERNIGHT...LITTLE CHANGE TO FCST REASONING. MINS SHOULD AVERAGE A
GOOD CATEGORY ABOVE LAST NIGHTS READINGS OF U50S-60F AREAWIDE (SAVE
FOR U60S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST). EXPECT MAINLY L60S TONIGHT...
WITH U60S ONCE AGAIN ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS AS AN ONSHORE DRIFT TO
THE WINDS SHOULD PERSIST THERE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...CLEAR SKIES/ONSHORE WINDS GOING LIGHT TO CALM OVERNIGHT
COULD PRODUCE AREAS OF OCNL MVFR MIST WITH SPOTTY/TEMPORARY IFR TO
LIFR VSBYS AND SHALLOW LIFR CIGS NR VV001-002. CURRENT T/TD SPREADS
(5-10F+) ARE SEVERAL DEGS HIGHER THAN THIS TIME LAST NIGHT (1-3F)...
THUS ANY MIST/FOG EARLY WED MORNING COULD HAVE AN ONSET TIME OF A
COUPLE HRS LATER...WITH FEWER AERODROMES EXPERIENCING IT COMPARED TO
THIS MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...ABOUT THE ONLY MINOR CHG OF NOTE HERE IS TO ADD SOME ISOLD
-SHRA WELL OFFSHORE FROM ABOUT THE CAPE SWD AS 88D AND 3.9UM IR DATA
BOTH INDICATE SOME ENHANCED CLOUDS WEAK BREF RETURNS ALONG A SLOWLY
WWD DRIFTING MARINE CONVERGENCE BAND APPROACHING THE OUTER PERIMETER
OF THE MAOR.

OTRW...E-SE WINDS 5-10KT WITH SEAS A LITTLE EITHER SIDE OF 2FT...WITH
A FEW 3FT SETS WELL OFFSHORE SOUTH OF THE CAPE.

&&

FORECAST/AVIATION...CRISTALDI
IMPACT WEATHER...BRAGAW

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014/

WED-THU...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT
EASTWARD AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND INTO
NORTHERN FLORIDA ON THURSDAY. DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AND
THEN A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON THU MAY
LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING
FROM THE ORLANDO AREA NORTHWARD. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE PENINSULA OVERNIGHT SO HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT
RAIN CHANCE FOR MOST OF THE REGION GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WITH SOME PVA AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH.  HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL WITH VALUES IN THE LOW/MID 80S AND LOWS WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOW TO MID 60S.

FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FRI...GFS MODEL A LITTLE FASTER WITH THE FRONT AND NOT AS KEEN ON
RAINFALL WITH MEX POPS NOW 15% OR LESS. HOWEVER THIS SEEMS TOO LOW
AS MODELS STILL SHOW SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND ADDED LIFT FROM DEEP
TROUGH ALOFT TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WILL THEREFORE CONTINUE TO KEEP POPS AROUND 30%
BUT HAVE SHIFTED THIS AREA OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAIN CHANCES SOUTH OF
NRN VOLUSIA AND LAKE COUNTIES DUE TO PROJECTED FASTER PROGRESSION OF
THE BOUNDARY. DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL END RAIN
CHANCES INTO HALLOWEEN EVENING. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S FORECAST
WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 50S-LOW 60S FRI NIGHT.

SAT-MON...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MID/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WILL GRADUALLY BUILD TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW SAT WILL INCREASE AND BECOME
MORE ONSHORE INTO SUN AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. BREEZY EASTERLY WINDS
WILL MODIFY THE DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
EVENTUALLY DEVELOPING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND MOVING ONSHORE.
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL BEHIND THE FRONT WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID-UPPER 70S. COOLEST NIGHT EXPECTED TO OCCUR ON SAT NIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE 50S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. THEN AS ONSHORE FLOW
STRENGTHENS LOWS WILL RETURN BACK TO VALUES THAT ARE CLOSER TO
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR WITH EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS BELOW 10 KNOTS
BECOMING CALM OR NEARLY SO AFTER SUNSET. PATCHY GROUND FOG EXPECTED
TOWARDS DAYBREAK ESPECIALLY INLAND AND AWAY FROM THE COAST. HAVE
INTRODUCED MVFR VISIBILITIES ACROSS INTERIOR TERMINALS WHERE
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER.

&&

.MARINE...

TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY...SURFACE HIGH CENTER WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT
INTO THE ATLANTIC LEAVING ITS TRAILING RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. PREVAILING LIGHT EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD
AT GENERALLY 10KTS OR LESS. DEPENDING ON EXACTLY WHERE RIDGE AXIS
ENDS UP...MAY SEE WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST NORTH OF THE
CAPE LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING THOUGH SPEEDS WOULD BE 5KTS
OR LESS. SEAS 2-3FT.

THURSDAY-SUNDAY...COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE PENINSULA ON THURSDAY
WITH WINDS COMING AROUND TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST THURS MORNING BUT
REMAINING LIGHT ENOUGH WITH THE FRONT OVERHEAD TO VEER TO THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON. NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE
BEHIND THE FRONT ON FRIDAY WITH HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. SEAS 2-3FT INTO FRIDAY...THEN
BUILDING OVER THE WEEKEND WITH NORTHERLY WINDS SURGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  63  84  64  84 /   0  10  10  20
MCO  63  86  64  85 /   0   0  10  20
MLB  66  83  65  83 /   0  10  10  10
VRB  65  85  63  85 /  10  10  10  10
LEE  64  86  64  85 /   0   0  10  20
SFB  63  86  65  85 /   0   0  10  20
ORL  66  86  66  85 /   0   0  10  20
FPR  64  83  62  83 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOSES
IMPACT WEATHER....VOLKMER
AVIATION...ULRICH











000
FXUS62 KMLB 281912
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
312 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES STILL IN PLACE
THROUGHOUT THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME DAYTIME CUMULUS IN
PLACE. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT FOR THE INTERIOR THOUGH COASTAL
AREAS MAY SEE ENOUGH STRATOCU BRUSHING THE COAST TO KEEP SKIES
PARTLY CLOUDY.

QUESTION AGAIN FOR THE OVERNIGHT WILL BE IF WINDS ALONG THE BREVARD
AND TREASURE COAST WILL DECOUPLE AND TURN OFFSHORE AGAIN
OVERNIGHT...ADDING SOME UNCERTAINTY TO THE TEMPERATURES. GIVEN THE
LIGHT GRADIENT AND POSITION OF THE RIDGE AXIS ALONG WITH
PERSISTENCE...WILL GO WITH WINDS BECOMING OFFSHORE WHICH WILL ALLOW
OVERNIGHT LOWS TO DIP INTO THE MID 60S WITH UPPER 60S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE BARRIER ISLANDS. LOWS OVER THE INTERIOR INTO THE LOW-MID
60S WITH A FEW UPPER 50S.

WITH DEWPOINTS ALSO IN THE LOW-MID 60S THIS AFTERNOON AND LIGHT
WINDS...PATCHY FOG WILL BE A POSSIBILITY AGAIN OVERNIGHT.

WED-THU...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT
EASTWARD AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND INTO
NORTHERN FLORIDA ON THURSDAY. DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AND
THEN A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON THU MAY
LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING
FROM THE ORLANDO AREA NORTHWARD. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE PENINSULA OVERNIGHT SO HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT
RAIN CHANCE FOR MOST OF THE REGION GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WITH SOME PVA AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH.  HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL WITH VALUES IN THE LOW/MID 80S AND LOWS WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOW TO MID 60S.

FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FRI...GFS MODEL A LITTLE FASTER WITH THE FRONT AND NOT AS KEEN ON
RAINFALL WITH MEX POPS NOW 15% OR LESS. HOWEVER THIS SEEMS TOO LOW
AS MODELS STILL SHOW SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND ADDED LIFT FROM DEEP
TROUGH ALOFT TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WILL THEREFORE CONTINUE TO KEEP POPS AROUND 30%
BUT HAVE SHIFTED THIS AREA OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAIN CHANCES SOUTH OF
NRN VOLUSIA AND LAKE COUNTIES DUE TO PROJECTED FASTER PROGRESSION OF
THE BOUNDARY. DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL END RAIN
CHANCES INTO HALLOWEEN EVENING. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S FORECAST
WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 50S-LOW 60S FRI NIGHT.

SAT-MON...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MID/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WILL GRADUALLY BUILD TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW SAT WILL INCREASE AND BECOME
MORE ONSHORE INTO SUN AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. BREEZY EASTERLY WINDS
WILL MODIFY THE DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
EVENTUALLY DEVELOPING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND MOVING ONSHORE.
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL BEHIND THE FRONT WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID-UPPER 70S. COOLEST NIGHT EXPECTED TO OCCUR ON SAT NIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE 50S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. THEN AS ONSHORE FLOW
STRENGTHENS LOWS WILL RETURN BACK TO VALUES THAT ARE CLOSER TO
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR WITH EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS BELOW 10 KNOTS
BECOMING CALM OR NEARLY SO AFTER SUNSET. PATCHY GROUND FOG EXPECTED
TOWARDS DAYBREAK ESPECIALLY INLAND AND AWAY FROM THE COAST. HAVE
INTRODUCED MVFR VISIBILITIES ACROSS INTERIOR TERMINALS WHERE
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER.

&&

.MARINE...

TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY...SURFACE HIGH CENTER WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT
INTO THE ATLANTIC LEAVING ITS TRAILING RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. PREVAILING LIGHT EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD
AT GENERALLY 10KTS OR LESS. DEPENDING ON EXACTLY WHERE RIDGE AXIS
ENDS UP...MAY SEE WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST NORTH OF THE
CAPE LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING THOUGH SPEEDS WOULD BE 5KTS
OR LESS. SEAS 2-3FT.

THURSDAY-SUNDAY...COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE PENINSULA ON THURSDAY
WITH WINDS COMING AROUND TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST THURS MORNING BUT
REMAINING LIGHT ENOUGH WITH THE FRONT OVERHEAD TO VEER TO THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON. NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE
BEHIND THE FRONT ON FRIDAY WITH HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. SEAS 2-3FT INTO FRIDAY...THEN
BUILDING OVER THE WEEKEND WITH NORTHERLY WINDS SURGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  63  84  64  84 /   0  10  10  20
MCO  63  86  64  85 /   0   0  10  20
MLB  66  83  65  83 /   0  10  10  10
VRB  65  85  63  85 /  10  10  10  10
LEE  64  86  64  85 /   0   0  10  20
SFB  63  86  65  85 /   0   0  10  20
ORL  66  86  66  85 /   0   0  10  20
FPR  64  83  62  83 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOSES
IMPACT WEATHER....VOLKMER
AVIATION...ULRICH








000
FXUS62 KMLB 281240
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
840 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...DEEP LAYER RIDGE HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE STATE VEERING
THE PREVAILING LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW AROUND TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST.
THIS HAS BROUGHT A LITTLE MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK INTO THE
REGION AND CONTRIBUTED TO THE PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE REGION EARLIER
THIS MORNING.

ANY LINGERING FOG WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT HOUR WITH THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE CONTRIBUTING TO SOME FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL AS MARINE STRATOCU MOVING ONSHORE. OVERALL
HOWEVER...SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY.

TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE MID 80S MOST AREAS...EXCEPT LOWER 80S
IMMEDIATE COAST AND A FEW UPPER 80S POSSIBLE INTERIOR. THESE
READINGS WILL BE 3 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
BUT WELL SHORT OF ANY RECORD HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION...PATCHY MVFR GROUND FOG THROUGH 13Z...OTHERWISE VFR WITH
FEW-SCT CU IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE AS HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST CONTINUES TO PUSH OUT TO
SEA WITH ITS TRAILING RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SW ACROSS NORTH FL. THERE
WILL BE A VERY LIGHT OFFSHORE COMPONENT WITHIN A FEW MILES OF THE
COAST THIS MORNING FROM THE NOCTURNAL LAND BREEZE...BUT OVERALL
WINDS WILL BE E/SE AT 7-10 KNOTS THROUGH THE DAY. SEAS WILL BE 2-3
FT COMBINED WITH A SMALL SWELL COMPONENT.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

MOSES/VOLKMER












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