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000
FXUS62 KMLB 311937
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
335 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...

REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT...AS EXPECTED...THE LARGE SCALE
OUTFLOW PRODUCED A BAND OF FAST MOVING STORMS WHICH TRAVERSED ACROSS
THE BREADTH OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.
BRIEF WIND GUSTS IN THE 35-45 MPH RANGE WERE COMMON...ESPECIALLY AS
AREAL COVERAGE INCREASED ALONG THE BDRY ONCE IT APPROACHED THE
COAST. ANOTHER LARGE CLUSTER OF STRONG STORMS HAS FORMED NORTH OF
LAKE OKEE...WHILE MORE STORMS ARE WEST OF THE KISM RIVER APPROACHING
OSCEOLA CO ATTM. SEVERAL OUTFLOW INTERACTIONS WILL TAKE PLACE ALONG
AND SOUTH OF A LAKE KISM-KMLB LINE...WITH ADDITIONAL STRONG STORMS
EXPECTED THERE. TO THE NORTH...ACTIVITY GAS REDEVELOPED NEAR/EAST OF
THE NATURE COAST...HOWEVER INTENSITY MAY BE LIMITED DUE TO THE
ANTECEDENT STORMS FROM EARLY AFTERNOON.

EXPECT DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION /SCT SHRA AND A FEW STORMS / TO
LINGER A FEW HRS PAST SUNSET. SULTRY WSW FLOW COUPLED WITH MID LVL
TROUGH LINGERING OVHD COULD LEAD TO ISOLD NOCTURNAL SHOWERS...
ESPECIALLY FROM SOME GOMEX ACTIVITY REACHING LAKE CO/KISM VLY RGN.

THIS WEEKEND...LOW LEVEL PRES/WIND/MOISTURE PATTERN WILL REMAIN
STAGNANT...WITH LOW-MID LEVEL SSW TO SW FLOW AND A RIBBON OF VERY
HIGH PWATS CONTINUING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NRN CWA. SOME VERY SLGT
H50 HGT RISES OCCUR IN THE PERSISTENT WEAKNESS ACROSS FL...AND THE
H25 NE WIND MAX WILL REPOSITION ITSELF A LITTLE FARTHER SE TO THE
NW QUADRANT OF A DEVELOPING TUTT LOW WHICH WILL BE RETROGRADING WWD
TO OUR SOUTH NEXT WEEK.

PATTERN WILL KEEP ANOMALOUSLY HIGH (NMRS/LIKELY CAT) RAIN CHCS IN
PLACE WITH DIURNAL SHOWER/STORMS PUSHING EWD/OFFSHORE AT A FAIRLY
RAPID CLIP DURING THE AFTERNOON/VERY EARLY EVENING. TEMPS SHOULD
REMAIN NEAR TO A BIT ABOVE CLIMO.

MON-FRI (PREVIOUS)...THE SFC RIDGE IS FORECAST TO MOVE GRADUALLY
NORTH FROM AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE MONDAY TO TAMPA TO MELBOURNE BY
WED. SLOW DECREASE IN DEEP MOISTURE IS FORECAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
SECTIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE MOISTURE RIBBON LIFTS NORTH OF THE
RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE NRN PENINSULA INTO MID WEEK. WILL CONTINUE
LIKELY SHOWER/STORMS CHANCES NRN SECTIONS FOR MONDAY BEFORE LOWERING
ALL AREAS TO THE SCATTERED RANGE 30-50 PCT FOR TUE/WED. SHOULD SEE
NRN INTERIOR SECTIONS FAVORED FOR TUE AND WED WITH AFTERNOON AND
LATE DAY BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE INTERIOR. FOR THU
INTO FRI...ANOTHER 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE SE
FROM AL/GA TWD N FL. THIS WILL SLOWLY PUSH THE SFC RIDGE BACK SOUTH
AND SET UP WESTERLY MID LAYER FLOW ALOFT. MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE NEXT
TROUGH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SCATTERED STORMS FOR LATE WEEK WITH RAIN
CHANCES IN THE 40-50 PCT RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...SOME DEVELOPMENT OF SHRA ACTIVITY HAS OCCURRED NEAR AND
WEST OF THE WRN AERODROMES IN THE WAKE OF THE FAST-MOVING EARLY
AFTERNOON OUTFLOW BDRY. HOWEVER THIS ACTIVITY IS MUCH WEAKER THAN
THE EARLIER ACTIVITY. MAIN THREAT FOR STORMS THROUGH ABOUT 22-23Z
LOOKS TO BE  OVER THE MLB-SUA CORRIDOR.

LOOK FOR REPEAT PERFORMANCES OF TODAY`S CONVECTIVE REGIME/PATTERN
THOUGH THIS WEEKEND...AND POSSIBLY MONDAY TO SOME EXTENT.

&&

.MARINE...

THIS WEEKEND...S/SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15KT NEAR SHORE AND UP
TO 15-20 KNOTS OFFSHORE WITH SEAS 2-3FT NEAR SHORE AND UP TO 4FT
OFFSHORE NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET. HIGH COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN...MOVING OFF THE MAINLAND FROM EARLY AFTN
THROUGH A LITTLE PAST SUNSET. THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS WITH WIND
GUSTS NEAR/ABOVE 34 KNOTS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING/LOCALLY HIGHER SEAS.

MON-WED (PREVIOUS)...THE SFC RIDGE WILL LIFT NWD TWD LAKE OKEECHOBEE
WITH S/SW WINDS DECREASING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
COVERAGE OF STORMS SHOULD DECREASE ACROSS THE SRN WATERS WITH SOME
STORMS STILL MOVING TWD THE COAST FROM BREVARD COUNTY NWD WHERE
DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL RESIDE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  74  87  72  88 /  40  70  40  60
MCO  75  87  73  91 /  30  70  40  70
MLB  76  87  74  90 /  40  60  40  60
VRB  75  87  73  90 /  40  60  40  50
LEE  77  87  75  89 /  40  70  40  70
SFB  75  88  73  90 /  40  70  40  70
ORL  75  88  74  90 /  30  70  40  70
FPR  74  88  73  91 /  40  50  40  50

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

FORECASTS/AVIATION...CRISTALDI
RADAR/IMPACT WX UPDATES...MOSES
RADAR/WARNING...WEITLICH





000
FXUS62 KMLB 311937
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
335 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...

REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT...AS EXPECTED...THE LARGE SCALE
OUTFLOW PRODUCED A BAND OF FAST MOVING STORMS WHICH TRAVERSED ACROSS
THE BREADTH OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.
BRIEF WIND GUSTS IN THE 35-45 MPH RANGE WERE COMMON...ESPECIALLY AS
AREAL COVERAGE INCREASED ALONG THE BDRY ONCE IT APPROACHED THE
COAST. ANOTHER LARGE CLUSTER OF STRONG STORMS HAS FORMED NORTH OF
LAKE OKEE...WHILE MORE STORMS ARE WEST OF THE KISM RIVER APPROACHING
OSCEOLA CO ATTM. SEVERAL OUTFLOW INTERACTIONS WILL TAKE PLACE ALONG
AND SOUTH OF A LAKE KISM-KMLB LINE...WITH ADDITIONAL STRONG STORMS
EXPECTED THERE. TO THE NORTH...ACTIVITY GAS REDEVELOPED NEAR/EAST OF
THE NATURE COAST...HOWEVER INTENSITY MAY BE LIMITED DUE TO THE
ANTECEDENT STORMS FROM EARLY AFTERNOON.

EXPECT DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION /SCT SHRA AND A FEW STORMS / TO
LINGER A FEW HRS PAST SUNSET. SULTRY WSW FLOW COUPLED WITH MID LVL
TROUGH LINGERING OVHD COULD LEAD TO ISOLD NOCTURNAL SHOWERS...
ESPECIALLY FROM SOME GOMEX ACTIVITY REACHING LAKE CO/KISM VLY RGN.

THIS WEEKEND...LOW LEVEL PRES/WIND/MOISTURE PATTERN WILL REMAIN
STAGNANT...WITH LOW-MID LEVEL SSW TO SW FLOW AND A RIBBON OF VERY
HIGH PWATS CONTINUING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NRN CWA. SOME VERY SLGT
H50 HGT RISES OCCUR IN THE PERSISTENT WEAKNESS ACROSS FL...AND THE
H25 NE WIND MAX WILL REPOSITION ITSELF A LITTLE FARTHER SE TO THE
NW QUADRANT OF A DEVELOPING TUTT LOW WHICH WILL BE RETROGRADING WWD
TO OUR SOUTH NEXT WEEK.

PATTERN WILL KEEP ANOMALOUSLY HIGH (NMRS/LIKELY CAT) RAIN CHCS IN
PLACE WITH DIURNAL SHOWER/STORMS PUSHING EWD/OFFSHORE AT A FAIRLY
RAPID CLIP DURING THE AFTERNOON/VERY EARLY EVENING. TEMPS SHOULD
REMAIN NEAR TO A BIT ABOVE CLIMO.

MON-FRI (PREVIOUS)...THE SFC RIDGE IS FORECAST TO MOVE GRADUALLY
NORTH FROM AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE MONDAY TO TAMPA TO MELBOURNE BY
WED. SLOW DECREASE IN DEEP MOISTURE IS FORECAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
SECTIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE MOISTURE RIBBON LIFTS NORTH OF THE
RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE NRN PENINSULA INTO MID WEEK. WILL CONTINUE
LIKELY SHOWER/STORMS CHANCES NRN SECTIONS FOR MONDAY BEFORE LOWERING
ALL AREAS TO THE SCATTERED RANGE 30-50 PCT FOR TUE/WED. SHOULD SEE
NRN INTERIOR SECTIONS FAVORED FOR TUE AND WED WITH AFTERNOON AND
LATE DAY BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE INTERIOR. FOR THU
INTO FRI...ANOTHER 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE SE
FROM AL/GA TWD N FL. THIS WILL SLOWLY PUSH THE SFC RIDGE BACK SOUTH
AND SET UP WESTERLY MID LAYER FLOW ALOFT. MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE NEXT
TROUGH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SCATTERED STORMS FOR LATE WEEK WITH RAIN
CHANCES IN THE 40-50 PCT RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...SOME DEVELOPMENT OF SHRA ACTIVITY HAS OCCURRED NEAR AND
WEST OF THE WRN AERODROMES IN THE WAKE OF THE FAST-MOVING EARLY
AFTERNOON OUTFLOW BDRY. HOWEVER THIS ACTIVITY IS MUCH WEAKER THAN
THE EARLIER ACTIVITY. MAIN THREAT FOR STORMS THROUGH ABOUT 22-23Z
LOOKS TO BE  OVER THE MLB-SUA CORRIDOR.

LOOK FOR REPEAT PERFORMANCES OF TODAY`S CONVECTIVE REGIME/PATTERN
THOUGH THIS WEEKEND...AND POSSIBLY MONDAY TO SOME EXTENT.

&&

.MARINE...

THIS WEEKEND...S/SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15KT NEAR SHORE AND UP
TO 15-20 KNOTS OFFSHORE WITH SEAS 2-3FT NEAR SHORE AND UP TO 4FT
OFFSHORE NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET. HIGH COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN...MOVING OFF THE MAINLAND FROM EARLY AFTN
THROUGH A LITTLE PAST SUNSET. THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS WITH WIND
GUSTS NEAR/ABOVE 34 KNOTS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING/LOCALLY HIGHER SEAS.

MON-WED (PREVIOUS)...THE SFC RIDGE WILL LIFT NWD TWD LAKE OKEECHOBEE
WITH S/SW WINDS DECREASING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
COVERAGE OF STORMS SHOULD DECREASE ACROSS THE SRN WATERS WITH SOME
STORMS STILL MOVING TWD THE COAST FROM BREVARD COUNTY NWD WHERE
DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL RESIDE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  74  87  72  88 /  40  70  40  60
MCO  75  87  73  91 /  30  70  40  70
MLB  76  87  74  90 /  40  60  40  60
VRB  75  87  73  90 /  40  60  40  50
LEE  77  87  75  89 /  40  70  40  70
SFB  75  88  73  90 /  40  70  40  70
ORL  75  88  74  90 /  30  70  40  70
FPR  74  88  73  91 /  40  50  40  50

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

FORECASTS/AVIATION...CRISTALDI
RADAR/IMPACT WX UPDATES...MOSES
RADAR/WARNING...WEITLICH




000
FXUS62 KMLB 311422
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1020 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...HIGH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS WEEKEND
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY IN SOME LOCATIONS...

CURRENT...AXIS OF THE ATLC HIGH PRES RIDGE EXTENDS WWD ACROSS THE
EXTREME SRN PENINSULA (DADE/COLLIER COS). MEAN SWRLY FLOW RESIDES
OVER ECFL FROM THE SFC UP TO NEAR H50...AVGING A SOLID 20KT IN THE
LOWEST 3KM...ACCORDING TOP RAOB/PROFILER DATA. WATERVAPOR AND RUC
ANLYS SHOW THE STUBBORN BREACH IN THE MID LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUING TO
RESIDE OVER FL AND THE ADJCT ERN GOMEX/WRN ATLC. UNUSUALLY STOUT/
DIFFLUENT NE WINDS OF 50-55KT SHOW UP AT H20 ON BOTH THE RAOB AND
50MHZ PROFILER. THIS IS RESULTING IN AN EXTENSIVE HIGH CLOUD CANOPY
FROM OSCEOLA/BREVARD COS SWD...ESPECIALLY OVER THE COASTAL COS THAT
ARE CLOSER TO THE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION OCCURRING UPSTREAM OVER THE
ATLC.

LOCAL AIR MASS IS QUITE SOUPY TODAY WITH PWATS CHECKING IN 1.9" AT
JAX/TBS AND 2.1" AT XMR. A BIT DRIER ACROSS SOUTH FL/KEYS (NEAR
1.75"). H50 TEMPS VARY ABOUT THE TROUGH AXIS AS ONE MIGHT EXPECT.
JAX/-6C...TBW -7C...XMR/MFL AROUND -8C. PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL DRYING
SHOWS UP AT MFL/KEY...WHICH SUGGESTS MID LEVELS MAY BE A TAD DRIER
AROUND LAKE O.

RECENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS AND OUT OF TAMPA SHOWS A FAIRLY ACTIVE
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BDRY PUSHING ONSHORE BETWEEN CRYSTAL RIVER AND
SARASOTA. MEAN H50-H85 STEERING WINDS NORTH OF KISM-KTIX AND 15-20KT
SOUTH OF THERE...WHICH SUPPORTS STORM MOTION OF 15 MPH NORTH/20-25
MPH SOUTH.

REST OF TODAY...OUTFLOW INVOF THE FL NATURE COAST/TAMPA-SARASOTA RGN
WILL EFFECTIVELY ACT AS THE LARGER SCALE WCSB BDRY FOR INITIATION
PURPOSES. EXPECT RADAR TO BEGIN FILLING IN NEAR/AHEAD OF THIS BDRY
BY 15Z/11AM...SIMILAR TO THU. MOISTURE/INSTABILITY MORE THAN ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT CURRENT FCST OF NMRS/WIDESPREAD SHOWERS STORMS BY THIS
AFTERNOON. MAIN STORM THREATS WILL BE TORRENTIAL RAINFALL...FQT LTG
AND LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY ALONG BDRY COLLISIONS LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON. CURRENT PRODUCT SUITE HAS SITUATION WELL IN HAND...
MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO CLOUD COVER AND WINDS..

&&

.AVIATION...CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW/PSEUDO-WCSB WILL AID IN DIAGNOSING OF
TIMING FOR HIGHEST CHC FOR CONVECTION/TS AT LCL AERODROMES. TYPICAL
OF MODERATELY STRONG WSW LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW REGIMES...EARLIEST ONSET
AT LEE-ISM BY 16Z-17Z...REACHING SFB-ORL-CORRIDOR 17-18Z...AND THEN
THE COASTAL CORRIDOR 19Z-22Z. ANY DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE
WILL OBVIOUSLY RESULT IN EARLIER ONSET. PRETTY GOOD CHC FOR BRIEF
PERIOD OF IFR VSBYS AND G30-35KT IN CELL CORES. WILL AMD TWD THAT END
AS NEEDED.

&&

MARINE...MODERATE SW WINDS AVGING 10-14KT PRODUCING 1-2FT SEAS NEAR
SHORE AND 2-3FT WELL OFFSHORE. MAIN MARINE CONCERN WILL BE STRONG
OFFSHORE MOVING TS BEGINNING AROUND 3PM OR SO. STORM MOTION EASILY
SUPPORTS GUSTS 30-35KT AND ANTICIPATE SOME MARINE STATEMENTS AND/OR
WARNINGS FOR THE ATLC BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

PUBLIC/AVIATION FCSTS...CRISTALDI
IMPACT WX/RADAR/WARNINGS...MOSES

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015/

TONIGHT...CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE EVENING
THOUGH A SCHC FOR A SHOWER WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT IN MOST AREAS.
CLOUD DEBRIS WILL THIN LATE IN THE NIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID 70S.

SAT...A FEED OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE FROM THE NE GULF ACROSS
E CENTRAL FL DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA NEAR OR OFFSHORE FROM THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE. THE SFC RIDGE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE
WITH INCREASING LOW LVL SW FLOW TO 20-25 KNOTS IN THE H9-H8 LAYER.
GFS PWATS ARE FORECAST FROM 2.0 TO 2.3 INCHES WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND STORMS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM THE WRN PENINSULA TOWARD THE
INTERIOR BY LATE MORNING AND MID DAY AND THEN TWD THE EAST COAST BY
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. WILL FORECAST RAIN CHANCE IN THE LIKELY RANGE
FROM 60-70 PCT. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
INCREASING LOW LVL WIND FIELDS AND THERE WILL THE CHANCE OF SOME
SOME TRAINING CONVECTION MAINLY ACROSS NRN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF TWO TO THREE INCHES. CONSIDERABLE
CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90. MARINERS
CAN EXPECT STORMS MOVING TWD THE INTRACOASTAL AND NEAR SHORE WATERS
BY MID DAY INTO THE AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY...SFC RIDGE IS FORECAST TO ELONGATE WESTWARD ACROSS S FL WITH
THE QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH STAYING NEAR THE FL-GA
BORDER. LOW LVL FLOW WILL VEER TO THE SW/WSW AND REMAIN AND CONTINUE
TO 20-25 KNOTS IN THE H9-H8 LYR ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE AREA.
DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WITH PWATS FROM 2.0-2.2
INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TO AROUND 1.9 AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE.
SHOULD SEE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES AGAIN ACROSS NRN/CENTRAL SECTIONS IN
THE 60-70 PCT RANGE WITH 50 PCT FOR FAR SRN AREAS. SHOWERS/STORMS
SHOULD PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE NRN ZONES INTO EARLY AFTERNOON
WITH DEVELOPMENT INTO SRN ZONES BY MID AFTERNOON. A FEW STRONG
STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO 2 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE.

MON-FRI...THE SFC RIDGE IS FORECAST TO MOVE GRADUALLY NORTH FROM
AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE MONDAY TO TAMPA TO MELBOURNE BY WED. SLOW
LOWERING OF DEEP MOISTURE IS FORECAST ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE STAYS MAINLY NORTH OF THE RIDGE
AXIS ACROSS NRN PENINSULA INTO MID WEEK. WILL CONTINUE LIKELY
SHOWER/STORMS CHANCES NRN SECTIONS FOR MONDAY BEFORE LOWERING ALL
AREAS TO THE SCATTERED RANGE 30-50 PCT FOR TUE/WED. SHOULD SEE NRN
INTERIOR SECTIONS FAVORED FOR TUE AND WED WITH AFTERNOON AND LATE
DAY BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE INTERIOR. FOR THU INTO
FRI...ANOTHER 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE SE FROM
AL/GA TWD N FL. THIS WILL SLOWLY PUSH THE SFC RIDGE BACK SOUTH AND
SET UP WESTERLY MID LAYER FLOW ALOFT. MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE NEXT
TROUGH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SCATTERED STORMS FOR LATE WEEK WITH RAIN
CHANCES IN THE 40-50 PCT RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...WILL MONITOR TAFS FOR AREAS OF LOW STRATUS AGAIN EARLY
THIS MORNING. MOIST CONDITIONS IN A SWRLY FLOW WITH SHRA/TSRA
BECOMING SCT-NMRS AGAIN THROUGH THE AFTN/EARLY EVENING. TEMPO
IFR/MVFR IN SHRA/TSRA. MOVEMENT TOWARD THE E/NE. VCTS 18Z-19Z WITH
FUTURE FORECAST SHIFTS ADDING TEMPO GROUPS WITH TIMING CONFIDENCE.
THREATS FROM CONVECTION CONTINUE TO BE LIGHTNING...TORRENTIAL
DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS. ACTIVITY WILL WIND DOWN THROUGH THE
EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...

TODAY-TONIGHT...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH.
S/SSW WINDS CONTINUE TO DOMINATE WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KTS...PERHAPS
UP TO AROUND 15 KTS AT TIMES WELL OFFSHORE ESPECIALLY DURING THE
EVENING PERIOD. SEAS GENERALLY 1-2 FT NEAR SHORE AND 2-3 FT
OFFSHORE...EXCEPT 4 FT WELL OFFSHORE NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET LATER
TONIGHT. WINDS/SEAS LOCALLY HIGHER INVOF OF STRONGER CONVECTION.
OFFSHORE MOVING STORM CELLS REMAIN A THREAT IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
AND COVERAGE WILL BE HIGH.

SAT-SUN...S/SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS NEAR SHORE AND UP
TO 15-20 KNOTS OFFSHORE WITH SEAS 2-3 FT NEAR SHORE AND UP TO 3-5 FT
OFFSHORE MAINLY NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET. A HIGH COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE MAINLAND FROM MID DAY INTO
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. SOME STRONG STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH WIND GUSTS ABOVE 34 KNOTS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

MON-TUE...THE SFC RIDGE WILL LIFT NWD TWD LAKE OKEECHOBEE WITH S/SW
WINDS DECREASING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS EARLY NEXT WEEK. COVERAGE OF
STORMS SHOULD DECREASE ACROSS THE SRN WATERS WITH SOME STORMS STILL
MOVING TWD THE COAST FROM BREVARD COUNTY NWD WHERE DEEPEST MOISTURE
WILL RESIDE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  89  74  87  73 /  70  50  70  40
MCO  90  74  87  74 /  60  40  70  40
MLB  89  75  87  75 /  70  50  70  40
VRB  90  74  87  70 /  70  50  60  40
LEE  89  76  87  75 /  60  40  70  40
SFB  89  75  88  74 /  60  50  70  40
ORL  89  75  88  74 /  60  50  70  40
FPR  91  74  88  73 /  60  50  60  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KMLB 311422
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1020 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...HIGH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS WEEKEND
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY IN SOME LOCATIONS...

CURRENT...AXIS OF THE ATLC HIGH PRES RIDGE EXTENDS WWD ACROSS THE
EXTREME SRN PENINSULA (DADE/COLLIER COS). MEAN SWRLY FLOW RESIDES
OVER ECFL FROM THE SFC UP TO NEAR H50...AVGING A SOLID 20KT IN THE
LOWEST 3KM...ACCORDING TOP RAOB/PROFILER DATA. WATERVAPOR AND RUC
ANLYS SHOW THE STUBBORN BREACH IN THE MID LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUING TO
RESIDE OVER FL AND THE ADJCT ERN GOMEX/WRN ATLC. UNUSUALLY STOUT/
DIFFLUENT NE WINDS OF 50-55KT SHOW UP AT H20 ON BOTH THE RAOB AND
50MHZ PROFILER. THIS IS RESULTING IN AN EXTENSIVE HIGH CLOUD CANOPY
FROM OSCEOLA/BREVARD COS SWD...ESPECIALLY OVER THE COASTAL COS THAT
ARE CLOSER TO THE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION OCCURRING UPSTREAM OVER THE
ATLC.

LOCAL AIR MASS IS QUITE SOUPY TODAY WITH PWATS CHECKING IN 1.9" AT
JAX/TBS AND 2.1" AT XMR. A BIT DRIER ACROSS SOUTH FL/KEYS (NEAR
1.75"). H50 TEMPS VARY ABOUT THE TROUGH AXIS AS ONE MIGHT EXPECT.
JAX/-6C...TBW -7C...XMR/MFL AROUND -8C. PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL DRYING
SHOWS UP AT MFL/KEY...WHICH SUGGESTS MID LEVELS MAY BE A TAD DRIER
AROUND LAKE O.

RECENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS AND OUT OF TAMPA SHOWS A FAIRLY ACTIVE
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BDRY PUSHING ONSHORE BETWEEN CRYSTAL RIVER AND
SARASOTA. MEAN H50-H85 STEERING WINDS NORTH OF KISM-KTIX AND 15-20KT
SOUTH OF THERE...WHICH SUPPORTS STORM MOTION OF 15 MPH NORTH/20-25
MPH SOUTH.

REST OF TODAY...OUTFLOW INVOF THE FL NATURE COAST/TAMPA-SARASOTA RGN
WILL EFFECTIVELY ACT AS THE LARGER SCALE WCSB BDRY FOR INITIATION
PURPOSES. EXPECT RADAR TO BEGIN FILLING IN NEAR/AHEAD OF THIS BDRY
BY 15Z/11AM...SIMILAR TO THU. MOISTURE/INSTABILITY MORE THAN ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT CURRENT FCST OF NMRS/WIDESPREAD SHOWERS STORMS BY THIS
AFTERNOON. MAIN STORM THREATS WILL BE TORRENTIAL RAINFALL...FQT LTG
AND LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY ALONG BDRY COLLISIONS LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON. CURRENT PRODUCT SUITE HAS SITUATION WELL IN HAND...
MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO CLOUD COVER AND WINDS..

&&

.AVIATION...CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW/PSEUDO-WCSB WILL AID IN DIAGNOSING OF
TIMING FOR HIGHEST CHC FOR CONVECTION/TS AT LCL AERODROMES. TYPICAL
OF MODERATELY STRONG WSW LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW REGIMES...EARLIEST ONSET
AT LEE-ISM BY 16Z-17Z...REACHING SFB-ORL-CORRIDOR 17-18Z...AND THEN
THE COASTAL CORRIDOR 19Z-22Z. ANY DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE
WILL OBVIOUSLY RESULT IN EARLIER ONSET. PRETTY GOOD CHC FOR BRIEF
PERIOD OF IFR VSBYS AND G30-35KT IN CELL CORES. WILL AMD TWD THAT END
AS NEEDED.

&&

MARINE...MODERATE SW WINDS AVGING 10-14KT PRODUCING 1-2FT SEAS NEAR
SHORE AND 2-3FT WELL OFFSHORE. MAIN MARINE CONCERN WILL BE STRONG
OFFSHORE MOVING TS BEGINNING AROUND 3PM OR SO. STORM MOTION EASILY
SUPPORTS GUSTS 30-35KT AND ANTICIPATE SOME MARINE STATEMENTS AND/OR
WARNINGS FOR THE ATLC BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

PUBLIC/AVIATION FCSTS...CRISTALDI
IMPACT WX/RADAR/WARNINGS...MOSES

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015/

TONIGHT...CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE EVENING
THOUGH A SCHC FOR A SHOWER WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT IN MOST AREAS.
CLOUD DEBRIS WILL THIN LATE IN THE NIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID 70S.

SAT...A FEED OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE FROM THE NE GULF ACROSS
E CENTRAL FL DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA NEAR OR OFFSHORE FROM THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE. THE SFC RIDGE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE
WITH INCREASING LOW LVL SW FLOW TO 20-25 KNOTS IN THE H9-H8 LAYER.
GFS PWATS ARE FORECAST FROM 2.0 TO 2.3 INCHES WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND STORMS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM THE WRN PENINSULA TOWARD THE
INTERIOR BY LATE MORNING AND MID DAY AND THEN TWD THE EAST COAST BY
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. WILL FORECAST RAIN CHANCE IN THE LIKELY RANGE
FROM 60-70 PCT. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
INCREASING LOW LVL WIND FIELDS AND THERE WILL THE CHANCE OF SOME
SOME TRAINING CONVECTION MAINLY ACROSS NRN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF TWO TO THREE INCHES. CONSIDERABLE
CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90. MARINERS
CAN EXPECT STORMS MOVING TWD THE INTRACOASTAL AND NEAR SHORE WATERS
BY MID DAY INTO THE AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY...SFC RIDGE IS FORECAST TO ELONGATE WESTWARD ACROSS S FL WITH
THE QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH STAYING NEAR THE FL-GA
BORDER. LOW LVL FLOW WILL VEER TO THE SW/WSW AND REMAIN AND CONTINUE
TO 20-25 KNOTS IN THE H9-H8 LYR ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE AREA.
DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WITH PWATS FROM 2.0-2.2
INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TO AROUND 1.9 AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE.
SHOULD SEE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES AGAIN ACROSS NRN/CENTRAL SECTIONS IN
THE 60-70 PCT RANGE WITH 50 PCT FOR FAR SRN AREAS. SHOWERS/STORMS
SHOULD PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE NRN ZONES INTO EARLY AFTERNOON
WITH DEVELOPMENT INTO SRN ZONES BY MID AFTERNOON. A FEW STRONG
STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO 2 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE.

MON-FRI...THE SFC RIDGE IS FORECAST TO MOVE GRADUALLY NORTH FROM
AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE MONDAY TO TAMPA TO MELBOURNE BY WED. SLOW
LOWERING OF DEEP MOISTURE IS FORECAST ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE STAYS MAINLY NORTH OF THE RIDGE
AXIS ACROSS NRN PENINSULA INTO MID WEEK. WILL CONTINUE LIKELY
SHOWER/STORMS CHANCES NRN SECTIONS FOR MONDAY BEFORE LOWERING ALL
AREAS TO THE SCATTERED RANGE 30-50 PCT FOR TUE/WED. SHOULD SEE NRN
INTERIOR SECTIONS FAVORED FOR TUE AND WED WITH AFTERNOON AND LATE
DAY BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE INTERIOR. FOR THU INTO
FRI...ANOTHER 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE SE FROM
AL/GA TWD N FL. THIS WILL SLOWLY PUSH THE SFC RIDGE BACK SOUTH AND
SET UP WESTERLY MID LAYER FLOW ALOFT. MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE NEXT
TROUGH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SCATTERED STORMS FOR LATE WEEK WITH RAIN
CHANCES IN THE 40-50 PCT RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...WILL MONITOR TAFS FOR AREAS OF LOW STRATUS AGAIN EARLY
THIS MORNING. MOIST CONDITIONS IN A SWRLY FLOW WITH SHRA/TSRA
BECOMING SCT-NMRS AGAIN THROUGH THE AFTN/EARLY EVENING. TEMPO
IFR/MVFR IN SHRA/TSRA. MOVEMENT TOWARD THE E/NE. VCTS 18Z-19Z WITH
FUTURE FORECAST SHIFTS ADDING TEMPO GROUPS WITH TIMING CONFIDENCE.
THREATS FROM CONVECTION CONTINUE TO BE LIGHTNING...TORRENTIAL
DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS. ACTIVITY WILL WIND DOWN THROUGH THE
EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...

TODAY-TONIGHT...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH.
S/SSW WINDS CONTINUE TO DOMINATE WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KTS...PERHAPS
UP TO AROUND 15 KTS AT TIMES WELL OFFSHORE ESPECIALLY DURING THE
EVENING PERIOD. SEAS GENERALLY 1-2 FT NEAR SHORE AND 2-3 FT
OFFSHORE...EXCEPT 4 FT WELL OFFSHORE NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET LATER
TONIGHT. WINDS/SEAS LOCALLY HIGHER INVOF OF STRONGER CONVECTION.
OFFSHORE MOVING STORM CELLS REMAIN A THREAT IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
AND COVERAGE WILL BE HIGH.

SAT-SUN...S/SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS NEAR SHORE AND UP
TO 15-20 KNOTS OFFSHORE WITH SEAS 2-3 FT NEAR SHORE AND UP TO 3-5 FT
OFFSHORE MAINLY NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET. A HIGH COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE MAINLAND FROM MID DAY INTO
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. SOME STRONG STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH WIND GUSTS ABOVE 34 KNOTS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

MON-TUE...THE SFC RIDGE WILL LIFT NWD TWD LAKE OKEECHOBEE WITH S/SW
WINDS DECREASING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS EARLY NEXT WEEK. COVERAGE OF
STORMS SHOULD DECREASE ACROSS THE SRN WATERS WITH SOME STORMS STILL
MOVING TWD THE COAST FROM BREVARD COUNTY NWD WHERE DEEPEST MOISTURE
WILL RESIDE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  89  74  87  73 /  70  50  70  40
MCO  90  74  87  74 /  60  40  70  40
MLB  89  75  87  75 /  70  50  70  40
VRB  90  74  87  70 /  70  50  60  40
LEE  89  76  87  75 /  60  40  70  40
SFB  89  75  88  74 /  60  50  70  40
ORL  89  75  88  74 /  60  50  70  40
FPR  91  74  88  73 /  60  50  60  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KMLB 310721
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
320 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...HIGH RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...

CURRENT...THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS SUPPRESSED OVER THE SOUTH
FLORIDA PENINSULA/FLORIDA STRAITS. MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS
RESIDES ACROSS THE REGION. MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS ARE PRESENT
FROM NEAR THE I-4 CORRIDOR SOUTHWARD. AS THE AIRMASS REMAINS
MOIST...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME AREAS OF STRATUS CLOUDS
AROUND AGAIN EARLY THIS MORNING FOR A SHORT TIME. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
WINDS ARE LIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S.

TODAY-TONIGHT...THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS FAIRLY
PERSISTENT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL CONTINUE AROUND 2 INCHES
AREAWIDE. THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE WITH ASSOCIATED SCATTERED
SHRA/TSRA WILL AGAIN BE DOMINANT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE PENINSULA
THIS AFTERNOON. 500 MB TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN RANGE BETWEEN -6 AND -
7 DEGREES CELSIUS. THE GFS HIGHLIGHTS FAIRLY DECENT UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE. THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL HAVE A HARD TIME
DEVELOPING...AND IF IT DOES...WILL LIKELY REMAIN PINNED ALONG THE
SPACE COAST OR TREASURE COAST. IT HELP MAY ENHANCE CONVECTION NEAR
THE EAST COAST SHOULD IT DEVELOP. STORM MOVEMENT WILL BE TOWARD THE
EAST OR NORTHEAST AT AROUND 10 KTS ALONG THE I-4 CORRIDOR AND
PERHAPS 15 TO 20 KTS SOUTHWARD.

WITH THAT SAID EXPECT SHOWERS TO BECOME NUMEROUS AS THE AFTERNOON
GROWS OLD WITH SCATTERED LIGHTNING STORMS. THE MAIN THREATS REMAIN
HEAVY DOWNPOURS...GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 50 MPH AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING IN A FEW CELLS. MARINERS ON INLAND LAKES AS WELL AS ACROSS
THE INTRACOASTAL/NEAR SHORE ATLANTIC WATERS WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE
TO THE SKY WESTWARD FOR DEVELOPING/APPROACHING STORMS. CONVECTION
WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE EVENING...THOUGH A SCHC FOR A
SHOWER WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT ALMOST EVERYWHERE. CLOUD DEBRIS WILL
THIN LATE IN THE NIGHT.

HIGHS AROUND 90/LOW 90S...LOWS IN THE MID 70S. SURFACE WINDS MAINLY
SSW/SW INCREASING TO 10-15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.

SAT...A FEED OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE FROM THE NE GULF ACROSS
E CENTRAL FL DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA NEAR OR OFFSHORE FROM THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE. THE SFC RIDGE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE
WITH INCREASING LOW LVL SW FLOW TO 20-25 KNOTS IN THE H9-H8 LAYER.
GFS PWATS ARE FORECAST FROM 2.0 TO 2.3 INCHES WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND STORMS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM THE WRN PENINSULA TOWARD THE
INTERIOR BY LATE MORNING AND MID DAY AND THEN TWD THE EAST COAST BY
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. WILL FORECAST RAIN CHANCE IN THE LIKELY RANGE
FROM 60-70 PCT. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
INCREASING LOW LVL WIND FIELDS AND THERE WILL THE CHANCE OF SOME
SOME TRAINING CONVECTION MAINLY ACROSS NRN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF TWO TO THREE INCHES. CONSIDERABLE
CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90. MARINERS
CAN EXPECT STORMS MOVING TWD THE INTRACOASTAL AND NEAR SHORE WATERS
BY MID DAY INTO THE AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY...SFC RIDGE IS FORECAST TO ELONGATE WESTWARD ACROSS S FL WITH
THE QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH STAYING NEAR THE FL-GA
BORDER. LOW LVL FLOW WILL VEER TO THE SW/WSW AND REMAIN AND CONTINUE
TO 20-25 KNOTS IN THE H9-H8 LYR ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE AREA.
DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WITH PWATS FROM 2.0-2.2
INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TO AROUND 1.9 AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE.
SHOULD SEE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES AGAIN ACROSS NRN/CENTRAL SECTIONS IN
THE 60-70 PCT RANGE WITH 50 PCT FOR FAR SRN AREAS. SHOWERS/STORMS
SHOULD PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE NRN ZONES INTO EARLY AFTERNOON
WITH DEVELOPMENT INTO SRN ZONES BY MID AFTERNOON. A FEW STRONG
STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO 2 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE.

MON-FRI...THE SFC RIDGE IS FORECAST TO MOVE GRADUALLY NORTH FROM
AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE MONDAY TO TAMPA TO MELBOURNE BY WED. SLOW
LOWERING OF DEEP MOISTURE IS FORECAST ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE STAYS MAINLY NORTH OF THE RIDGE
AXIS ACROSS NRN PENINSULA INTO MID WEEK. WILL CONTINUE LIKELY
SHOWER/STORMS CHANCES NRN SECTIONS FOR MONDAY BEFORE LOWERING ALL
AREAS TO THE SCATTERED RANGE 30-50 PCT FOR TUE/WED. SHOULD SEE NRN
INTERIOR SECTIONS FAVORED FOR TUE AND WED WITH AFTERNOON AND LATE
DAY BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE INTERIOR. FOR THU INTO
FRI...ANOTHER 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE SE FROM
AL/GA TWD N FL. THIS WILL SLOWLY PUSH THE SFC RIDGE BACK SOUTH AND
SET UP WESTERLY MID LAYER FLOW ALOFT. MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE NEXT
TROUGH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SCATTERED STORMS FOR LATE WEEK WITH RAIN
CHANCES IN THE 40-50 PCT RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...WILL MONITOR TAFS FOR AREAS OF LOW STRATUS AGAIN EARLY
THIS MORNING. MOIST CONDITIONS IN A SWRLY FLOW WITH SHRA/TSRA
BECOMING SCT-NMRS AGAIN THROUGH THE AFTN/EARLY EVENING. TEMPO
IFR/MVFR IN SHRA/TSRA. MOVEMENT TOWARD THE E/NE. VCTS 18Z-19Z WITH
FUTURE FORECAST SHIFTS ADDING TEMPO GROUPS WITH TIMING CONFIDENCE.
THREATS FROM CONVECTION CONTINUE TO BE LIGHTNING...TORRENTIAL
DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS. ACTIVITY WILL WIND DOWN THROUGH THE
EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...

TODAY-TONIGHT...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH.
S/SSW WINDS CONTINUE TO DOMINATE WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KTS...PERHAPS
UP TO AROUND 15 KTS AT TIMES WELL OFFSHORE ESPECIALLY DURING THE
EVENING PERIOD. SEAS GENERALLY 1-2 FT NEAR SHORE AND 2-3 FT
OFFSHORE...EXCEPT 4 FT WELL OFFSHORE NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET LATER
TONIGHT. WINDS/SEAS LOCALLY HIGHER INVOF OF STRONGER CONVECTION.
OFFSHORE MOVING STORM CELLS REMAIN A THREAT IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
AND COVERAGE WILL BE HIGH.

SAT-SUN...S/SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS NEAR SHORE AND UP
TO 15-20 KNOTS OFFSHORE WITH SEAS 2-3 FT NEAR SHORE AND UP TO 3-5 FT
OFFSHORE MAINLY NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET. A HIGH COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE MAINLAND FROM MID DAY INTO
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. SOME STRONG STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH WIND GUSTS ABOVE 34 KNOTS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

MON-TUE...THE SFC RIDGE WILL LIFT NWD TWD LAKE OKEECHOBEE WITH S/SW
WINDS DECREASING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS EARLY NEXT WEEK. COVERAGE OF
STORMS SHOULD DECREASE ACROSS THE SRN WATERS WITH SOME STORMS STILL
MOVING TWD THE COAST FROM BREVARD COUNTY NWD WHERE DEEPEST MOISTURE
WILL RESIDE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  89  74  87  73 /  70  50  70  40
MCO  90  74  87  74 /  60  40  70  40
MLB  89  75  87  75 /  70  50  70  40
VRB  90  74  87  70 /  70  50  60  40
LEE  89  76  87  75 /  60  40  70  40
SFB  89  75  88  74 /  60  50  70  40
ORL  89  75  88  74 /  60  50  70  40
FPR  91  74  88  73 /  60  50  60  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...SEDLOCK
LONG TERM....VOLKMER





000
FXUS62 KMLB 310721
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
320 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...HIGH RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...

CURRENT...THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS SUPPRESSED OVER THE SOUTH
FLORIDA PENINSULA/FLORIDA STRAITS. MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS
RESIDES ACROSS THE REGION. MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS ARE PRESENT
FROM NEAR THE I-4 CORRIDOR SOUTHWARD. AS THE AIRMASS REMAINS
MOIST...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME AREAS OF STRATUS CLOUDS
AROUND AGAIN EARLY THIS MORNING FOR A SHORT TIME. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
WINDS ARE LIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S.

TODAY-TONIGHT...THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS FAIRLY
PERSISTENT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL CONTINUE AROUND 2 INCHES
AREAWIDE. THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE WITH ASSOCIATED SCATTERED
SHRA/TSRA WILL AGAIN BE DOMINANT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE PENINSULA
THIS AFTERNOON. 500 MB TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN RANGE BETWEEN -6 AND -
7 DEGREES CELSIUS. THE GFS HIGHLIGHTS FAIRLY DECENT UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE. THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL HAVE A HARD TIME
DEVELOPING...AND IF IT DOES...WILL LIKELY REMAIN PINNED ALONG THE
SPACE COAST OR TREASURE COAST. IT HELP MAY ENHANCE CONVECTION NEAR
THE EAST COAST SHOULD IT DEVELOP. STORM MOVEMENT WILL BE TOWARD THE
EAST OR NORTHEAST AT AROUND 10 KTS ALONG THE I-4 CORRIDOR AND
PERHAPS 15 TO 20 KTS SOUTHWARD.

WITH THAT SAID EXPECT SHOWERS TO BECOME NUMEROUS AS THE AFTERNOON
GROWS OLD WITH SCATTERED LIGHTNING STORMS. THE MAIN THREATS REMAIN
HEAVY DOWNPOURS...GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 50 MPH AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING IN A FEW CELLS. MARINERS ON INLAND LAKES AS WELL AS ACROSS
THE INTRACOASTAL/NEAR SHORE ATLANTIC WATERS WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE
TO THE SKY WESTWARD FOR DEVELOPING/APPROACHING STORMS. CONVECTION
WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE EVENING...THOUGH A SCHC FOR A
SHOWER WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT ALMOST EVERYWHERE. CLOUD DEBRIS WILL
THIN LATE IN THE NIGHT.

HIGHS AROUND 90/LOW 90S...LOWS IN THE MID 70S. SURFACE WINDS MAINLY
SSW/SW INCREASING TO 10-15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.

SAT...A FEED OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE FROM THE NE GULF ACROSS
E CENTRAL FL DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA NEAR OR OFFSHORE FROM THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE. THE SFC RIDGE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE
WITH INCREASING LOW LVL SW FLOW TO 20-25 KNOTS IN THE H9-H8 LAYER.
GFS PWATS ARE FORECAST FROM 2.0 TO 2.3 INCHES WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND STORMS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM THE WRN PENINSULA TOWARD THE
INTERIOR BY LATE MORNING AND MID DAY AND THEN TWD THE EAST COAST BY
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. WILL FORECAST RAIN CHANCE IN THE LIKELY RANGE
FROM 60-70 PCT. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
INCREASING LOW LVL WIND FIELDS AND THERE WILL THE CHANCE OF SOME
SOME TRAINING CONVECTION MAINLY ACROSS NRN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF TWO TO THREE INCHES. CONSIDERABLE
CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90. MARINERS
CAN EXPECT STORMS MOVING TWD THE INTRACOASTAL AND NEAR SHORE WATERS
BY MID DAY INTO THE AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY...SFC RIDGE IS FORECAST TO ELONGATE WESTWARD ACROSS S FL WITH
THE QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH STAYING NEAR THE FL-GA
BORDER. LOW LVL FLOW WILL VEER TO THE SW/WSW AND REMAIN AND CONTINUE
TO 20-25 KNOTS IN THE H9-H8 LYR ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE AREA.
DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WITH PWATS FROM 2.0-2.2
INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TO AROUND 1.9 AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE.
SHOULD SEE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES AGAIN ACROSS NRN/CENTRAL SECTIONS IN
THE 60-70 PCT RANGE WITH 50 PCT FOR FAR SRN AREAS. SHOWERS/STORMS
SHOULD PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE NRN ZONES INTO EARLY AFTERNOON
WITH DEVELOPMENT INTO SRN ZONES BY MID AFTERNOON. A FEW STRONG
STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO 2 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE.

MON-FRI...THE SFC RIDGE IS FORECAST TO MOVE GRADUALLY NORTH FROM
AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE MONDAY TO TAMPA TO MELBOURNE BY WED. SLOW
LOWERING OF DEEP MOISTURE IS FORECAST ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE STAYS MAINLY NORTH OF THE RIDGE
AXIS ACROSS NRN PENINSULA INTO MID WEEK. WILL CONTINUE LIKELY
SHOWER/STORMS CHANCES NRN SECTIONS FOR MONDAY BEFORE LOWERING ALL
AREAS TO THE SCATTERED RANGE 30-50 PCT FOR TUE/WED. SHOULD SEE NRN
INTERIOR SECTIONS FAVORED FOR TUE AND WED WITH AFTERNOON AND LATE
DAY BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE INTERIOR. FOR THU INTO
FRI...ANOTHER 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE SE FROM
AL/GA TWD N FL. THIS WILL SLOWLY PUSH THE SFC RIDGE BACK SOUTH AND
SET UP WESTERLY MID LAYER FLOW ALOFT. MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE NEXT
TROUGH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SCATTERED STORMS FOR LATE WEEK WITH RAIN
CHANCES IN THE 40-50 PCT RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...WILL MONITOR TAFS FOR AREAS OF LOW STRATUS AGAIN EARLY
THIS MORNING. MOIST CONDITIONS IN A SWRLY FLOW WITH SHRA/TSRA
BECOMING SCT-NMRS AGAIN THROUGH THE AFTN/EARLY EVENING. TEMPO
IFR/MVFR IN SHRA/TSRA. MOVEMENT TOWARD THE E/NE. VCTS 18Z-19Z WITH
FUTURE FORECAST SHIFTS ADDING TEMPO GROUPS WITH TIMING CONFIDENCE.
THREATS FROM CONVECTION CONTINUE TO BE LIGHTNING...TORRENTIAL
DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS. ACTIVITY WILL WIND DOWN THROUGH THE
EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...

TODAY-TONIGHT...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH.
S/SSW WINDS CONTINUE TO DOMINATE WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KTS...PERHAPS
UP TO AROUND 15 KTS AT TIMES WELL OFFSHORE ESPECIALLY DURING THE
EVENING PERIOD. SEAS GENERALLY 1-2 FT NEAR SHORE AND 2-3 FT
OFFSHORE...EXCEPT 4 FT WELL OFFSHORE NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET LATER
TONIGHT. WINDS/SEAS LOCALLY HIGHER INVOF OF STRONGER CONVECTION.
OFFSHORE MOVING STORM CELLS REMAIN A THREAT IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
AND COVERAGE WILL BE HIGH.

SAT-SUN...S/SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS NEAR SHORE AND UP
TO 15-20 KNOTS OFFSHORE WITH SEAS 2-3 FT NEAR SHORE AND UP TO 3-5 FT
OFFSHORE MAINLY NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET. A HIGH COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE MAINLAND FROM MID DAY INTO
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. SOME STRONG STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH WIND GUSTS ABOVE 34 KNOTS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

MON-TUE...THE SFC RIDGE WILL LIFT NWD TWD LAKE OKEECHOBEE WITH S/SW
WINDS DECREASING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS EARLY NEXT WEEK. COVERAGE OF
STORMS SHOULD DECREASE ACROSS THE SRN WATERS WITH SOME STORMS STILL
MOVING TWD THE COAST FROM BREVARD COUNTY NWD WHERE DEEPEST MOISTURE
WILL RESIDE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  89  74  87  73 /  70  50  70  40
MCO  90  74  87  74 /  60  40  70  40
MLB  89  75  87  75 /  70  50  70  40
VRB  90  74  87  70 /  70  50  60  40
LEE  89  76  87  75 /  60  40  70  40
SFB  89  75  88  74 /  60  50  70  40
ORL  89  75  88  74 /  60  50  70  40
FPR  91  74  88  73 /  60  50  60  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...SEDLOCK
LONG TERM....VOLKMER




000
FXUS62 KMLB 310147 AAA
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
945 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...

CONVECTION HAS LARGELY DIMINISHED THIS EVE BUT A STRONGER SW FLOW
ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS COMBINED WITH DIFLUENCE ALOFT IS
MAINTAINING SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS SOUTH OF ORLANDO. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF OSCEOLA AND OKEECHOBEE LATE THIS
EVE BEFORE DISSIPATING. LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT AND FRI MORNING WITHIN MOIST AIRMASS. LOW CLOUDS ARE PROB
MORE LIKELY THAN FOG GIVEN THE WARM TEMPS AND ENOUGH AIR MOVEMENT TO
KEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED.

FRI/FRI NIGHT...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE CURRENT WEATHER PICTURE
AS THE TROUGHING OVER FLORIDA AND THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST MOVES
LITTLE. THE CURRENT SOUTHWEST FLOW IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH
AT LEAST THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WEST TO EAST MOTION OF
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS/STORMS WITH THE EMPHASIS ON SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED STORMS AND THE EAST SIDE OF CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE LAYER
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN AT 2 INCHES OR
HIGHER. THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGH/LIKELY AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES EACH
DAY. UPPER LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN -6 TO -7C AND
ALONG WITH THE HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THE ATMOSPHERE
WOULD SUGGEST LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN TO BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.
STRONG WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS WILL BE A THREAT MAINLY TO
BOATERS ON INLAND LAKES...INTRACOASTAL AND NEAR SHORE ATLC WATERS.
HIGHS AROUND 90/LOW 90S...LOWS IN THE MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION... THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR IFR/MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT AND
FRI MORNING IN MOIST AIRMASS. HIGH COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED
AGAIN FRI MAINLY AFT 17Z SPREADING EAST.

&&

.MARINE...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO CURRENT COASTAL WATERS FCST.

FRI/FRI NIGHT...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH.
MAINLY SSW/SW WINDS AROUND 10 KTS. SEAS GENERALLY AOB 3 FT.
WINDS/SEAS LOCALLY HIGHER INVOF OF STRONGER CONVECTION. OFFSHORE
MOVING STORM CELLS REMAIN A THREAT AND COVERAGE WILL BE HIGH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  75  89  73  86 /  40  70  50  70
MCO  75  89  74  87 /  20  60  40  70
MLB  74  90  75  86 /  50  70  50  70
VRB  72  90  74  87 /  50  70  50  70
LEE  77  89  76  87 /  20  60  40  60
SFB  76  90  74  87 /  30  60  50  70
ORL  76  90  74  87 /  20  60  50  70
FPR  72  90  74  88 /  50  60  50  70

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

KELLY/WEITLICH




000
FXUS62 KMLB 310147 AAA
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
945 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...

CONVECTION HAS LARGELY DIMINISHED THIS EVE BUT A STRONGER SW FLOW
ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS COMBINED WITH DIFLUENCE ALOFT IS
MAINTAINING SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS SOUTH OF ORLANDO. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF OSCEOLA AND OKEECHOBEE LATE THIS
EVE BEFORE DISSIPATING. LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT AND FRI MORNING WITHIN MOIST AIRMASS. LOW CLOUDS ARE PROB
MORE LIKELY THAN FOG GIVEN THE WARM TEMPS AND ENOUGH AIR MOVEMENT TO
KEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED.

FRI/FRI NIGHT...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE CURRENT WEATHER PICTURE
AS THE TROUGHING OVER FLORIDA AND THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST MOVES
LITTLE. THE CURRENT SOUTHWEST FLOW IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH
AT LEAST THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WEST TO EAST MOTION OF
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS/STORMS WITH THE EMPHASIS ON SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED STORMS AND THE EAST SIDE OF CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE LAYER
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN AT 2 INCHES OR
HIGHER. THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGH/LIKELY AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES EACH
DAY. UPPER LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN -6 TO -7C AND
ALONG WITH THE HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THE ATMOSPHERE
WOULD SUGGEST LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN TO BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.
STRONG WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS WILL BE A THREAT MAINLY TO
BOATERS ON INLAND LAKES...INTRACOASTAL AND NEAR SHORE ATLC WATERS.
HIGHS AROUND 90/LOW 90S...LOWS IN THE MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION... THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR IFR/MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT AND
FRI MORNING IN MOIST AIRMASS. HIGH COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED
AGAIN FRI MAINLY AFT 17Z SPREADING EAST.

&&

.MARINE...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO CURRENT COASTAL WATERS FCST.

FRI/FRI NIGHT...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH.
MAINLY SSW/SW WINDS AROUND 10 KTS. SEAS GENERALLY AOB 3 FT.
WINDS/SEAS LOCALLY HIGHER INVOF OF STRONGER CONVECTION. OFFSHORE
MOVING STORM CELLS REMAIN A THREAT AND COVERAGE WILL BE HIGH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  75  89  73  86 /  40  70  50  70
MCO  75  89  74  87 /  20  60  40  70
MLB  74  90  75  86 /  50  70  50  70
VRB  72  90  74  87 /  50  70  50  70
LEE  77  89  76  87 /  20  60  40  60
SFB  76  90  74  87 /  30  60  50  70
ORL  76  90  74  87 /  20  60  50  70
FPR  72  90  74  88 /  50  60  50  70

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

KELLY/WEITLICH





000
FXUS62 KMLB 301801
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
201 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT-SAT NIGHT...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE CURRENT WEATHER
PICTURE AS THE TROUGHING OVER FLORIDA AND THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST
MOVES LITTLE. THE CURRENT SOUTHWEST FLOW IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WEST TO EAST
MOTION OF THE AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS/STORMS WITH THE EMPHASIS ON
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS AND THE EAST SIDE OF CENTRAL FLORIDA.
THE LAYER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN AT 2
INCHES OR HIGHER. THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGH/LIKELY AFTERNOON RAIN
CHANCES EACH DAY. UPPER LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
WARM AT AROUND -6 DEGREES CELSIUS AND ALONG WITH THE HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THE ATMOSPHERE WOULD SUGGEST MORE
SHOWERS THAN STORMS BUT...AS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON SHOWED...THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL AND VERY STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH ANY OF
THE STORM CELLS THAT DO DEVELOP. STRONG STORM POTENTIAL WOULD BE
MORE OF A DAILY HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK CALL. HIGHS AROUND 90/LOW
90S...LOWS IN THE MID 70S.

PREVIOUS AFD

SUN-WED...AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY OVER THE
WESTERN U.S. THE GENERAL TROUGHINESS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS. THE SURFACE ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL BEGIN BUILDING BACK
NORTHWARD TUE-WED AS THE EASTERN CONUS LOW-LEVEL TROUGHING  SHIFTS
WEST OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. EXPECT MOISTURE TO REMAIN HIGH AND
POPS 50 PERCENT OR A LITTLE HIGHER STILL SEEM WARRANTED...EXCEPT
POSSIBLY TRENDING LOWER WED...IF THE SURFACE RIDGE DOES INDEED BUILD
BACK INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.AVIATION...

PREVAILING VFR THROUGH 18Z. TEMPO MVFR VCTS/VCSH WITH GUSTY WIND
19Z-24Z. VFR 31/00Z THROUGH 31/08Z. TEMPO MVFR/IFR 31/08Z TO 31/14Z
DUE TO CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY DUE TO LOW CLOUDS/MIST/FOG.

.MARINE...

BUOY 009 WAS RECORDING SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS AND 2 FOOT
SEAS. THE TWO SCRIPPS BUOYS AT 4NM AND 6NM OFF THE BEACH WERE
RECORDING 1 FOOT SEAS.

TONIGHT...SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE WITH SPEEDS 10-15
KNOTS OFFSHORE AND 5-10 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE COAST. THE MAIN MARINER
CONCERN WILL BE OFFSHORE MOVING SHOWERS/STORMS.

PREVIOUS MARINE DISCUSSION

FRI-FRI NIGHT...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH.
MAINLY SSW/SW WINDS AROUND 10 KTS. SEAS GENERALLY AOB 3 FT.
WINDS/SEAS LOCALLY HIGHER INVOF OF STRONGER CONVECTION. OFFSHORE
MOVING STORM CELLS REMAIN A THREAT THROUGH THE PERIOD. COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS LOOKS RATHER HIGH AND STORMS SHOULD START TO PRODUCE
MORE FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES.

SAT-TUE..SURFACE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. LITTLE CHANGE IN MOIST SSW/SW WIND FLOW REGIME. STORM
MOTION STILL OFFSHORE BUT WEAKER. BOATERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE
VIGILANT FOR MARINE STORMS... ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WIND SPEEDS AOB 15 KTS WITH SEAS 2-4 FT GENERALLY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  75  89  73  86 /  40  70  50  70
MCO  75  89  74  87 /  20  60  40  70
MLB  74  90  75  86 /  50  70  50  70
VRB  72  90  74  87 /  50  70  50  70
LEE  77  89  76  87 /  20  60  40  60
SFB  76  90  74  87 /  30  60  50  70
ORL  76  90  74  87 /  20  60  50  70
FPR  72  90  74  88 /  50  60  50  70

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

IMPACT WX/AVIATION...CRISTALDI
FORECASTS...WIMMER

SHORT TERM...WIMMER
LONG TERM....CRISTALDI
AVIATION...WIMMER





000
FXUS62 KMLB 301801
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
201 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT-SAT NIGHT...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE CURRENT WEATHER
PICTURE AS THE TROUGHING OVER FLORIDA AND THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST
MOVES LITTLE. THE CURRENT SOUTHWEST FLOW IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WEST TO EAST
MOTION OF THE AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS/STORMS WITH THE EMPHASIS ON
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS AND THE EAST SIDE OF CENTRAL FLORIDA.
THE LAYER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN AT 2
INCHES OR HIGHER. THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGH/LIKELY AFTERNOON RAIN
CHANCES EACH DAY. UPPER LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
WARM AT AROUND -6 DEGREES CELSIUS AND ALONG WITH THE HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THE ATMOSPHERE WOULD SUGGEST MORE
SHOWERS THAN STORMS BUT...AS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON SHOWED...THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL AND VERY STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH ANY OF
THE STORM CELLS THAT DO DEVELOP. STRONG STORM POTENTIAL WOULD BE
MORE OF A DAILY HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK CALL. HIGHS AROUND 90/LOW
90S...LOWS IN THE MID 70S.

PREVIOUS AFD

SUN-WED...AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY OVER THE
WESTERN U.S. THE GENERAL TROUGHINESS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS. THE SURFACE ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL BEGIN BUILDING BACK
NORTHWARD TUE-WED AS THE EASTERN CONUS LOW-LEVEL TROUGHING  SHIFTS
WEST OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. EXPECT MOISTURE TO REMAIN HIGH AND
POPS 50 PERCENT OR A LITTLE HIGHER STILL SEEM WARRANTED...EXCEPT
POSSIBLY TRENDING LOWER WED...IF THE SURFACE RIDGE DOES INDEED BUILD
BACK INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.AVIATION...

PREVAILING VFR THROUGH 18Z. TEMPO MVFR VCTS/VCSH WITH GUSTY WIND
19Z-24Z. VFR 31/00Z THROUGH 31/08Z. TEMPO MVFR/IFR 31/08Z TO 31/14Z
DUE TO CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY DUE TO LOW CLOUDS/MIST/FOG.

.MARINE...

BUOY 009 WAS RECORDING SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS AND 2 FOOT
SEAS. THE TWO SCRIPPS BUOYS AT 4NM AND 6NM OFF THE BEACH WERE
RECORDING 1 FOOT SEAS.

TONIGHT...SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE WITH SPEEDS 10-15
KNOTS OFFSHORE AND 5-10 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE COAST. THE MAIN MARINER
CONCERN WILL BE OFFSHORE MOVING SHOWERS/STORMS.

PREVIOUS MARINE DISCUSSION

FRI-FRI NIGHT...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH.
MAINLY SSW/SW WINDS AROUND 10 KTS. SEAS GENERALLY AOB 3 FT.
WINDS/SEAS LOCALLY HIGHER INVOF OF STRONGER CONVECTION. OFFSHORE
MOVING STORM CELLS REMAIN A THREAT THROUGH THE PERIOD. COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS LOOKS RATHER HIGH AND STORMS SHOULD START TO PRODUCE
MORE FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES.

SAT-TUE..SURFACE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. LITTLE CHANGE IN MOIST SSW/SW WIND FLOW REGIME. STORM
MOTION STILL OFFSHORE BUT WEAKER. BOATERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE
VIGILANT FOR MARINE STORMS... ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WIND SPEEDS AOB 15 KTS WITH SEAS 2-4 FT GENERALLY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  75  89  73  86 /  40  70  50  70
MCO  75  89  74  87 /  20  60  40  70
MLB  74  90  75  86 /  50  70  50  70
VRB  72  90  74  87 /  50  70  50  70
LEE  77  89  76  87 /  20  60  40  60
SFB  76  90  74  87 /  30  60  50  70
ORL  76  90  74  87 /  20  60  50  70
FPR  72  90  74  88 /  50  60  50  70

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

IMPACT WX/AVIATION...CRISTALDI
FORECASTS...WIMMER

SHORT TERM...WIMMER
LONG TERM....CRISTALDI
AVIATION...WIMMER




000
FXUS62 KMLB 301340
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
940 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

DISCUSSION...

LOW EAST OF GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK AWAY FROM
THE EAST COAST. UPPER LEVEL/500MB TROUGHING BETWEEN UPPER
LEVEL/500MB HIGHS OVER SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE WEST AND EAST OF THE
BAHAMA ISLANDS EAST IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.

LATEST RAP FORECAST RUN SHOWS THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUING TO TRACK
SLOWLY EAST NORTHEAST THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THIS TRACK WILL MAINTAIN
THE OFFSHORE FLOW. LOCAL WRF MODELS SUGGESTING A SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPING FROM CAPE CANAVERAL NORTH WHERE THE OFFSHORE WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO BE LIGHTER. POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONGER STORMS OVER THE
NORTH FORECAST AREA WHERE SLIGHTLY COOLER UPPER LEVEL TEMPERATURES
RESIDE AND AT THE COAST WHERE THERE MAYBE SEA BREEZE INTERACTING
WITH THE PREVAILING WESTERLY FLOW.

CHANGES TO MAINLY THE VARIOUS WIND GRIDS.

.AVIATION...

PREVAILING VFR THROUGH 18Z. TEMPO MVFR VCTS 19Z-21Z. VFR 31/00Z
THROUGH 31/08Z. TEMPO IFR/MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITY 31/08Z-31/14Z DUE
TO LOW CLOUDS/MIST/FOG.

.MARINE...

BUOY 009 WAS RECORDING SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS AND 2 FOOT
SEAS. THE TWO SCRIPPS BUOYS AT 4NM AND 6NM OFF THE BEACH WERE
RECORDING 1 FOOT SEAS.

AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE CAPE CANAVERAL NORTH...OFFSHORE WINDS SOUTH OF
CAPE CANAVERAL AND REMAINDER OF COASTAL WATERS.

PREVIOUS AFD

TODAY-TONIGHT...MODELS SHOW THAT THE AREA OF LOWER PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES...THAT SLIPPED INTO NORTHERN AREAS YESTERDAY...
MOISTENING BACK UP ABOVE 2 INCHES. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AS THE
PERIPHERAL DRYING FROM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFFSHORE NORTH FLORIDA
LIFTS FARTHER AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST.

HAD BEEN A BIT DUBIOUS ABOUT THE 50-70 POPS ADVERTISED BY MOS
ESPECIALLY SINCE THERE WAS CONSIDERABLE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS
OVERSPREADING THE PENINSULA FROM CONVECTION OFFSHORE. RECENT
TRENDS SHOW THE CLOUDS DIMINISHING...AND AS THE LOW PULLS SLOWLY
NORTHEAST...EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE. THEREFORE MOST PLACES
SHOULD HEAT UP TO AROUND 90 OR THE LOWER 90S. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
SHOWING TEMPS ALOFT COOLING TO AROUND MINUS 7 CELSIUS. THEREFORE
EXPECT A FEW MORE STRONG STORMS...WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES
BEING THE MAIN DANGER. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME LINGERING
DRIER AIR ALOFT...SO ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS 50-60 MPH COULD
OCCUR AGAIN.

AS FAR AS DISTRIBUTION/TIMING OF THE STORMS...WOULD EXPECT A
GENERAL SCENARIO SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH SHOWERS/STORMS MOVING
ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS EARLIEST (WHERE THE STRONGEST/DEEPEST
WESTERLY FLOW WILL EXIST). THE LOCAL WRF AND HRRR MODELS GENERALLY
SHOW THIS OCCURRING...WITH LATER AND SLOWER MOVING STORMS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE NORTH AS BOUNDARIES INTERACT. THESE STORMS COULD BE
THE STRONGEST OF THE DAY.

MOS HAS POPS 50-60 PERCENT IN THE SOUTH TONIGHT...BUT GIVEN THE
ABOVE DISCUSSION...HAVE TRENDED BELOW THOSE UN-CLIMATOLOGICAL
VALUES.

FRI-FRI NIGHT...WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AT 500 MB LINGERS OFF OF
THE IMMEDIATE EAST FLORIDA COAST WITH MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING EXTENDING NORTH OF THE AREA ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES.
AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING REMAINS SUPPRESSED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN FL PENINSULA/FL STRAITS. A WEAK AREA OF SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE OFF OF THE CAROLINAS EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL LIFT FAIRLY
RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE AREA. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
CONTINUES WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. SUBTLE IMPULSES ALOFT...DEEP MOISTURE AND
BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS THROUGH THE DAY WILL ALLOW FOR HIGH END CHANCE
POPS (50 PERCENT) NEAR I-4 CORRIDOR NORTHWARD (AFTN/EVENING) AND
LIKELY CHANCES (60-70 PERCENT) SOUTHWARD. SCHC/LOW END CHC WORDING
FOR POPS DURING THE MORNING. LOWERING RAIN CHANCES FRI NIGHT THOUGH
REALISTICALLY THERE WILL REMAIN AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS ECFL
OVERNIGHT. STORM MOVEMENT MAINLY OUT OF THE SW OR W. HIGHS IN THE
U80S TO AROUND 90 AND LOWS GENERALLY IN THE M/U 70S.

WEEKEND...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHERN
FL PENINSULA AS SSW/SW FLOW CONTINUES IN THE LOW-LEVELS. ALOFT...A
GENERALLY TROUGHY PATTERN CONTINUES ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD TO
INCLUDE THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. WE ALSO MAINTAIN THE DEEP MOISTURE
AND RELATIVELY WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT. THE STORM MOTION WHILE WEAK
WILL GENERALLY FAVOR A WEST TO EAST MOVEMENT. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL REMAIN THE
MAIN CONVECTIVE THREATS. WITH THIS PERSISTENT PATTERN WILL KEEP
LOWER END SCHC/CHC POPS DURING THE MORNING AND MAINLY LIKELY (60
PERCENT) MENTION FOR THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING PERIODS. HIGHS/LOWS
WILL REMAIN CONSISTENT FROM WHAT WE HAVE BEEN SEEING RECENTLY.

MON-WED...ALOFT...AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY
OVER THE WESTERN U.S. THE GENERAL TROUGHINESS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE EASTERN CONUS. THE SURFACE ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL BEGIN BUILDING
BACK NORTHWARD TUE-WED AS THE EASTERN CONUS LOW-LEVEL TROUGHING
SHIFTS WEST OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. EXPECT MOISTURE TO REMAIN HIGH
AND POPS 50 PERCENT OR A LITTLE HIGHER STILL SEEM WARRANTED...EXCEPT
POSSIBLY TRENDING LOWER WED...IF THE SURFACE RIDGE DOES INDEED BUILD
BACK INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA.

&&

.AVIATION...A FEW MVFR CEILINGS WILL OCCUR UNTIL A LITTLE AFTER
SUNRISE. THERE IS A LITTLE MORE LOW LEVEL WIND THIS MORNING...BUT
LOCAL IFR COULD BRIEFLY OCCUR TOO. THEN THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM
BECOMES THE TIMING OF STORMS. EXPECT THAT FROM ABOUT KVRB-KSUA
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR STORMS RATHER EARLY AGAIN...ABOUT
16-20Z...WITH THE REMAINING TERMINALS LIKELY HAVING THE GREATEST
CHANCE BETWEEN 18-22Z. A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH WIND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING STRIKES AND GUSTY WINDS OVER 30 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY-TONIGHT...SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE WITH
SPEEDS 10-15 KNOTS OFFSHORE AND 5-10 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE COAST. THE
MAIN MARINER CONCERN WILL BE OFFSHORE MOVING SHOWERS/STORMS WHICH
COULD MOVE OFFSHORE THE TREASURE COAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
STEERING FLOW WILL BE WEAK NORTHWARD TO THE VOLUSIA COAST...BUT A
FEW STRONG STORMS COULD AFFECT THE NEARSHORE WATERS LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON.

FRI-FRI NIGHT...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH.
MAINLY SSW/SW WINDS AROUND 10 KTS. SEAS GENERALLY AOB 3 FT.
WINDS/SEAS LOCALLY HIGHER INVOF OF STRONGER CONVECTION. OFFSHORE
MOVING STORM CELLS REMAIN A THREAT THROUGH THE PERIOD. COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS LOOKS RATHER HIGH AND STORMS SHOULD START TO PRODUCE
MORE FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES.

SAT-MON...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. LITTLE CHANGE IN MOIST SSW/SW WIND FLOW REGIME.
STORM MOTION STILL OFFSHORE BUT WEAKER. BOATERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
BE VIGILANT FOR MARINE STORMS... ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WIND SPEEDS AOB 15 KTS WITH SEAS 2-4 FT GENERALLY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  90  74  90  74 /  60  30  50  30
MCO  91  74  90  74 /  60  30  50  30
MLB  91  73  89  74 /  60  30  60  40
VRB  90  73  89  72 /  60  30  70  40
LEE  89  76  91  76 /  60  30  50  30
SFB  92  75  91  74 /  60  30  50  30
ORL  91  76  90  75 /  60  30  50  30
FPR  90  73  89  73 /  60  30  70  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

IMPACT WX...CRISTALDI
FORECASTS...WIMMER





000
FXUS62 KMLB 301340
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
940 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

DISCUSSION...

LOW EAST OF GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK AWAY FROM
THE EAST COAST. UPPER LEVEL/500MB TROUGHING BETWEEN UPPER
LEVEL/500MB HIGHS OVER SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE WEST AND EAST OF THE
BAHAMA ISLANDS EAST IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.

LATEST RAP FORECAST RUN SHOWS THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUING TO TRACK
SLOWLY EAST NORTHEAST THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THIS TRACK WILL MAINTAIN
THE OFFSHORE FLOW. LOCAL WRF MODELS SUGGESTING A SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPING FROM CAPE CANAVERAL NORTH WHERE THE OFFSHORE WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO BE LIGHTER. POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONGER STORMS OVER THE
NORTH FORECAST AREA WHERE SLIGHTLY COOLER UPPER LEVEL TEMPERATURES
RESIDE AND AT THE COAST WHERE THERE MAYBE SEA BREEZE INTERACTING
WITH THE PREVAILING WESTERLY FLOW.

CHANGES TO MAINLY THE VARIOUS WIND GRIDS.

.AVIATION...

PREVAILING VFR THROUGH 18Z. TEMPO MVFR VCTS 19Z-21Z. VFR 31/00Z
THROUGH 31/08Z. TEMPO IFR/MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITY 31/08Z-31/14Z DUE
TO LOW CLOUDS/MIST/FOG.

.MARINE...

BUOY 009 WAS RECORDING SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS AND 2 FOOT
SEAS. THE TWO SCRIPPS BUOYS AT 4NM AND 6NM OFF THE BEACH WERE
RECORDING 1 FOOT SEAS.

AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE CAPE CANAVERAL NORTH...OFFSHORE WINDS SOUTH OF
CAPE CANAVERAL AND REMAINDER OF COASTAL WATERS.

PREVIOUS AFD

TODAY-TONIGHT...MODELS SHOW THAT THE AREA OF LOWER PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES...THAT SLIPPED INTO NORTHERN AREAS YESTERDAY...
MOISTENING BACK UP ABOVE 2 INCHES. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AS THE
PERIPHERAL DRYING FROM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFFSHORE NORTH FLORIDA
LIFTS FARTHER AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST.

HAD BEEN A BIT DUBIOUS ABOUT THE 50-70 POPS ADVERTISED BY MOS
ESPECIALLY SINCE THERE WAS CONSIDERABLE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS
OVERSPREADING THE PENINSULA FROM CONVECTION OFFSHORE. RECENT
TRENDS SHOW THE CLOUDS DIMINISHING...AND AS THE LOW PULLS SLOWLY
NORTHEAST...EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE. THEREFORE MOST PLACES
SHOULD HEAT UP TO AROUND 90 OR THE LOWER 90S. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
SHOWING TEMPS ALOFT COOLING TO AROUND MINUS 7 CELSIUS. THEREFORE
EXPECT A FEW MORE STRONG STORMS...WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES
BEING THE MAIN DANGER. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME LINGERING
DRIER AIR ALOFT...SO ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS 50-60 MPH COULD
OCCUR AGAIN.

AS FAR AS DISTRIBUTION/TIMING OF THE STORMS...WOULD EXPECT A
GENERAL SCENARIO SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH SHOWERS/STORMS MOVING
ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS EARLIEST (WHERE THE STRONGEST/DEEPEST
WESTERLY FLOW WILL EXIST). THE LOCAL WRF AND HRRR MODELS GENERALLY
SHOW THIS OCCURRING...WITH LATER AND SLOWER MOVING STORMS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE NORTH AS BOUNDARIES INTERACT. THESE STORMS COULD BE
THE STRONGEST OF THE DAY.

MOS HAS POPS 50-60 PERCENT IN THE SOUTH TONIGHT...BUT GIVEN THE
ABOVE DISCUSSION...HAVE TRENDED BELOW THOSE UN-CLIMATOLOGICAL
VALUES.

FRI-FRI NIGHT...WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AT 500 MB LINGERS OFF OF
THE IMMEDIATE EAST FLORIDA COAST WITH MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING EXTENDING NORTH OF THE AREA ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES.
AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING REMAINS SUPPRESSED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN FL PENINSULA/FL STRAITS. A WEAK AREA OF SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE OFF OF THE CAROLINAS EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL LIFT FAIRLY
RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE AREA. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
CONTINUES WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. SUBTLE IMPULSES ALOFT...DEEP MOISTURE AND
BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS THROUGH THE DAY WILL ALLOW FOR HIGH END CHANCE
POPS (50 PERCENT) NEAR I-4 CORRIDOR NORTHWARD (AFTN/EVENING) AND
LIKELY CHANCES (60-70 PERCENT) SOUTHWARD. SCHC/LOW END CHC WORDING
FOR POPS DURING THE MORNING. LOWERING RAIN CHANCES FRI NIGHT THOUGH
REALISTICALLY THERE WILL REMAIN AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS ECFL
OVERNIGHT. STORM MOVEMENT MAINLY OUT OF THE SW OR W. HIGHS IN THE
U80S TO AROUND 90 AND LOWS GENERALLY IN THE M/U 70S.

WEEKEND...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHERN
FL PENINSULA AS SSW/SW FLOW CONTINUES IN THE LOW-LEVELS. ALOFT...A
GENERALLY TROUGHY PATTERN CONTINUES ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD TO
INCLUDE THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. WE ALSO MAINTAIN THE DEEP MOISTURE
AND RELATIVELY WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT. THE STORM MOTION WHILE WEAK
WILL GENERALLY FAVOR A WEST TO EAST MOVEMENT. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL REMAIN THE
MAIN CONVECTIVE THREATS. WITH THIS PERSISTENT PATTERN WILL KEEP
LOWER END SCHC/CHC POPS DURING THE MORNING AND MAINLY LIKELY (60
PERCENT) MENTION FOR THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING PERIODS. HIGHS/LOWS
WILL REMAIN CONSISTENT FROM WHAT WE HAVE BEEN SEEING RECENTLY.

MON-WED...ALOFT...AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY
OVER THE WESTERN U.S. THE GENERAL TROUGHINESS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE EASTERN CONUS. THE SURFACE ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL BEGIN BUILDING
BACK NORTHWARD TUE-WED AS THE EASTERN CONUS LOW-LEVEL TROUGHING
SHIFTS WEST OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. EXPECT MOISTURE TO REMAIN HIGH
AND POPS 50 PERCENT OR A LITTLE HIGHER STILL SEEM WARRANTED...EXCEPT
POSSIBLY TRENDING LOWER WED...IF THE SURFACE RIDGE DOES INDEED BUILD
BACK INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA.

&&

.AVIATION...A FEW MVFR CEILINGS WILL OCCUR UNTIL A LITTLE AFTER
SUNRISE. THERE IS A LITTLE MORE LOW LEVEL WIND THIS MORNING...BUT
LOCAL IFR COULD BRIEFLY OCCUR TOO. THEN THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM
BECOMES THE TIMING OF STORMS. EXPECT THAT FROM ABOUT KVRB-KSUA
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR STORMS RATHER EARLY AGAIN...ABOUT
16-20Z...WITH THE REMAINING TERMINALS LIKELY HAVING THE GREATEST
CHANCE BETWEEN 18-22Z. A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH WIND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING STRIKES AND GUSTY WINDS OVER 30 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY-TONIGHT...SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE WITH
SPEEDS 10-15 KNOTS OFFSHORE AND 5-10 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE COAST. THE
MAIN MARINER CONCERN WILL BE OFFSHORE MOVING SHOWERS/STORMS WHICH
COULD MOVE OFFSHORE THE TREASURE COAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
STEERING FLOW WILL BE WEAK NORTHWARD TO THE VOLUSIA COAST...BUT A
FEW STRONG STORMS COULD AFFECT THE NEARSHORE WATERS LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON.

FRI-FRI NIGHT...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH.
MAINLY SSW/SW WINDS AROUND 10 KTS. SEAS GENERALLY AOB 3 FT.
WINDS/SEAS LOCALLY HIGHER INVOF OF STRONGER CONVECTION. OFFSHORE
MOVING STORM CELLS REMAIN A THREAT THROUGH THE PERIOD. COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS LOOKS RATHER HIGH AND STORMS SHOULD START TO PRODUCE
MORE FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES.

SAT-MON...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. LITTLE CHANGE IN MOIST SSW/SW WIND FLOW REGIME.
STORM MOTION STILL OFFSHORE BUT WEAKER. BOATERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
BE VIGILANT FOR MARINE STORMS... ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WIND SPEEDS AOB 15 KTS WITH SEAS 2-4 FT GENERALLY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  90  74  90  74 /  60  30  50  30
MCO  91  74  90  74 /  60  30  50  30
MLB  91  73  89  74 /  60  30  60  40
VRB  90  73  89  72 /  60  30  70  40
LEE  89  76  91  76 /  60  30  50  30
SFB  92  75  91  74 /  60  30  50  30
ORL  91  76  90  75 /  60  30  50  30
FPR  90  73  89  73 /  60  30  70  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

IMPACT WX...CRISTALDI
FORECASTS...WIMMER




000
FXUS62 KMLB 300741
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
341 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY-TONIGHT...MODELS SHOW THAT THE AREA OF LOWER PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES...THAT SLIPPED INTO NORTHERN AREAS YESTERDAY...
MOISTENING BACK UP ABOVE 2 INCHES. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AS THE
PERIPHERAL DRYING FROM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFFSHORE NORTH FLORIDA
LIFTS FARTHER AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST.

HAD BEEN A BIT DUBIOUS ABOUT THE 50-70 POPS ADVERTISED BY MOS
ESPECIALLY SINCE THERE WAS CONSIDERABLE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS
OVERSPREADING THE PENINSULA FROM CONVECTION OFFSHORE. RECENT
TRENDS SHOW THE CLOUDS DIMINISHING...AND AS THE LOW PULLS SLOWLY
NORTHEAST...EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE. THEREFORE MOST PLACES
SHOULD HEAT UP TO AROUND 90 OR THE LOWER 90S. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
SHOWING TEMPS ALOFT COOLING TO AROUND MINUS 7 CELSIUS. THEREFORE
EXPECT A FEW MORE STRONG STORMS...WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES
BEING THE MAIN DANGER. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME LINGERING
DRIER AIR ALOFT...SO ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS 50-60 MPH COULD
OCCUR AGAIN.

AS FAR AS DISTRIBUTION/TIMING OF THE STORMS...WOULD EXPECT A
GENERAL SCENARIO SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH SHOWERS/STORMS MOVING
ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS EARLIEST (WHERE THE STRONGEST/DEEPEST
WESTERLY FLOW WILL EXIST). THE LOCAL WRF AND HRRR MODELS GENERALLY
SHOW THIS OCCURRING...WITH LATER AND SLOWER MOVING STORMS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE NORTH AS BOUNDARIES INTERACT. THESE STORMS COULD BE
THE STRONGEST OF THE DAY.

MOS HAS POPS 50-60 PERCENT IN THE SOUTH TONIGHT...BUT GIVEN THE
ABOVE DISCUSSION...HAVE TRENDED BELOW THOSE UN-CLIMATOLOGICAL
VALUES.

FRI-FRI NIGHT...WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AT 500 MB LINGERS OFF OF
THE IMMEDIATE EAST FLORIDA COAST WITH MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING EXTENDING NORTH OF THE AREA ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES.
AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING REMAINS SUPPRESSED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN FL PENINSULA/FL STRAITS. A WEAK AREA OF SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE OFF OF THE CAROLINAS EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL LIFT FAIRLY
RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE AREA. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
CONTINUES WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. SUBTLE IMPULSES ALOFT...DEEP MOISTURE AND
BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS THROUGH THE DAY WILL ALLOW FOR HIGH END CHANCE
POPS (50 PERCENT) NEAR I-4 CORRIDOR NORTHWARD (AFTN/EVENING) AND
LIKELY CHANCES (60-70 PERCENT) SOUTHWARD. SCHC/LOW END CHC WORDING
FOR POPS DURING THE MORNING. LOWERING RAIN CHANCES FRI NIGHT THOUGH
REALISTICALLY THERE WILL REMAIN AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS ECFL
OVERNIGHT. STORM MOVEMENT MAINLY OUT OF THE SW OR W. HIGHS IN THE
U80S TO AROUND 90 AND LOWS GENERALLY IN THE M/U 70S.

WEEKEND...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHERN
FL PENINSULA AS SSW/SW FLOW CONTINUES IN THE LOW-LEVELS. ALOFT...A
GENERALLY TROUGHY PATTERN CONTINUES ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD TO
INCLUDE THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. WE ALSO MAINTAIN THE DEEP MOISTURE
AND RELATIVELY WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT. THE STORM MOTION WHILE WEAK
WILL GENERALLY FAVOR A WEST TO EAST MOVEMENT. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL REMAIN THE
MAIN CONVECTIVE THREATS. WITH THIS PERSISTENT PATTERN WILL KEEP
LOWER END SCHC/CHC POPS DURING THE MORNING AND MAINLY LIKELY (60
PERCENT) MENTION FOR THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING PERIODS. HIGHS/LOWS
WILL REMAIN CONSISTENT FROM WHAT WE HAVE BEEN SEEING RECENTLY.

MON-WED...ALOFT...AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY
OVER THE WESTERN U.S. THE GENERAL TROUGHINESS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE EASTERN CONUS. THE SURFACE ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL BEGIN BUILDING
BACK NORTHWARD TUE-WED AS THE EASTERN CONUS LOW-LEVEL TROUGHING
SHIFTS WEST OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. EXPECT MOISTURE TO REMAIN HIGH
AND POPS 50 PERCENT OR A LITTLE HIGHER STILL SEEM WARRANTED...EXCEPT
POSSIBLY TRENDING LOWER WED...IF THE SURFACE RIDGE DOES INDEED BUILD
BACK INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA.

&&

.AVIATION...A FEW MVFR CEILINGS WILL OCCUR UNTIL A LITTLE AFTER
SUNRISE. THERE IS A LITTLE MORE LOW LEVEL WIND THIS MORNING...BUT
LOCAL IFR COULD BRIEFLY OCCUR TOO. THEN THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM
BECOMES THE TIMING OF STORMS. EXPECT THAT FROM ABOUT KVRB-KSUA
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR STORMS RATHER EARLY AGAIN...ABOUT
16-20Z...WITH THE REMAINING TERMINALS LIKELY HAVING THE GREATEST
CHANCE BETWEEN 18-22Z. A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH WIND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING STRIKES AND GUSTY WINDS OVER 30 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY-TONIGHT...SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE WITH
SPEEDS 10-15 KNOTS OFFSHORE AND 5-10 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE COAST. THE
MAIN MARINER CONCERN WILL BE OFFSHORE MOVING SHOWERS/STORMS WHICH
COULD MOVE OFFSHORE THE TREASURE COAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
STEERING FLOW WILL BE WEAK NORTHWARD TO THE VOLUSIA COAST...BUT A
FEW STRONG STORMS COULD AFFECT THE NEARSHORE WATERS LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON.

FRI-FRI NIGHT...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH.
MAINLY SSW/SW WINDS AROUND 10 KTS. SEAS GENERALLY AOB 3 FT.
WINDS/SEAS LOCALLY HIGHER INVOF OF STRONGER CONVECTION. OFFSHORE
MOVING STORM CELLS REMAIN A THREAT THROUGH THE PERIOD. COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS LOOKS RATHER HIGH AND STORMS SHOULD START TO PRODUCE
MORE FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES.

SAT-MON...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. LITTLE CHANGE IN MOIST SSW/SW WIND FLOW REGIME.
STORM MOTION STILL OFFSHORE BUT WEAKER. BOATERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
BE VIGILANT FOR MARINE STORMS... ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WIND SPEEDS AOB 15 KTS WITH SEAS 2-4 FT GENERALLY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  90  74  90  74 /  60  30  50  30
MCO  91  74  90  74 /  60  30  50  30
MLB  91  73  89  74 /  60  30  60  40
VRB  90  73  89  72 /  60  30  70  40
LEE  89  76  91  76 /  60  30  50  30
SFB  92  75  91  74 /  60  30  50  30
ORL  91  76  90  75 /  60  30  50  30
FPR  90  73  89  73 /  60  30  70  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LASCODY
LONG TERM....SEDLOCK





000
FXUS62 KMLB 300741
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
341 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY-TONIGHT...MODELS SHOW THAT THE AREA OF LOWER PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES...THAT SLIPPED INTO NORTHERN AREAS YESTERDAY...
MOISTENING BACK UP ABOVE 2 INCHES. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AS THE
PERIPHERAL DRYING FROM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFFSHORE NORTH FLORIDA
LIFTS FARTHER AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST.

HAD BEEN A BIT DUBIOUS ABOUT THE 50-70 POPS ADVERTISED BY MOS
ESPECIALLY SINCE THERE WAS CONSIDERABLE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS
OVERSPREADING THE PENINSULA FROM CONVECTION OFFSHORE. RECENT
TRENDS SHOW THE CLOUDS DIMINISHING...AND AS THE LOW PULLS SLOWLY
NORTHEAST...EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE. THEREFORE MOST PLACES
SHOULD HEAT UP TO AROUND 90 OR THE LOWER 90S. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
SHOWING TEMPS ALOFT COOLING TO AROUND MINUS 7 CELSIUS. THEREFORE
EXPECT A FEW MORE STRONG STORMS...WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES
BEING THE MAIN DANGER. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME LINGERING
DRIER AIR ALOFT...SO ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS 50-60 MPH COULD
OCCUR AGAIN.

AS FAR AS DISTRIBUTION/TIMING OF THE STORMS...WOULD EXPECT A
GENERAL SCENARIO SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH SHOWERS/STORMS MOVING
ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS EARLIEST (WHERE THE STRONGEST/DEEPEST
WESTERLY FLOW WILL EXIST). THE LOCAL WRF AND HRRR MODELS GENERALLY
SHOW THIS OCCURRING...WITH LATER AND SLOWER MOVING STORMS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE NORTH AS BOUNDARIES INTERACT. THESE STORMS COULD BE
THE STRONGEST OF THE DAY.

MOS HAS POPS 50-60 PERCENT IN THE SOUTH TONIGHT...BUT GIVEN THE
ABOVE DISCUSSION...HAVE TRENDED BELOW THOSE UN-CLIMATOLOGICAL
VALUES.

FRI-FRI NIGHT...WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AT 500 MB LINGERS OFF OF
THE IMMEDIATE EAST FLORIDA COAST WITH MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING EXTENDING NORTH OF THE AREA ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES.
AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING REMAINS SUPPRESSED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN FL PENINSULA/FL STRAITS. A WEAK AREA OF SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE OFF OF THE CAROLINAS EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL LIFT FAIRLY
RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE AREA. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
CONTINUES WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. SUBTLE IMPULSES ALOFT...DEEP MOISTURE AND
BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS THROUGH THE DAY WILL ALLOW FOR HIGH END CHANCE
POPS (50 PERCENT) NEAR I-4 CORRIDOR NORTHWARD (AFTN/EVENING) AND
LIKELY CHANCES (60-70 PERCENT) SOUTHWARD. SCHC/LOW END CHC WORDING
FOR POPS DURING THE MORNING. LOWERING RAIN CHANCES FRI NIGHT THOUGH
REALISTICALLY THERE WILL REMAIN AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS ECFL
OVERNIGHT. STORM MOVEMENT MAINLY OUT OF THE SW OR W. HIGHS IN THE
U80S TO AROUND 90 AND LOWS GENERALLY IN THE M/U 70S.

WEEKEND...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHERN
FL PENINSULA AS SSW/SW FLOW CONTINUES IN THE LOW-LEVELS. ALOFT...A
GENERALLY TROUGHY PATTERN CONTINUES ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD TO
INCLUDE THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. WE ALSO MAINTAIN THE DEEP MOISTURE
AND RELATIVELY WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT. THE STORM MOTION WHILE WEAK
WILL GENERALLY FAVOR A WEST TO EAST MOVEMENT. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL REMAIN THE
MAIN CONVECTIVE THREATS. WITH THIS PERSISTENT PATTERN WILL KEEP
LOWER END SCHC/CHC POPS DURING THE MORNING AND MAINLY LIKELY (60
PERCENT) MENTION FOR THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING PERIODS. HIGHS/LOWS
WILL REMAIN CONSISTENT FROM WHAT WE HAVE BEEN SEEING RECENTLY.

MON-WED...ALOFT...AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY
OVER THE WESTERN U.S. THE GENERAL TROUGHINESS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE EASTERN CONUS. THE SURFACE ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL BEGIN BUILDING
BACK NORTHWARD TUE-WED AS THE EASTERN CONUS LOW-LEVEL TROUGHING
SHIFTS WEST OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. EXPECT MOISTURE TO REMAIN HIGH
AND POPS 50 PERCENT OR A LITTLE HIGHER STILL SEEM WARRANTED...EXCEPT
POSSIBLY TRENDING LOWER WED...IF THE SURFACE RIDGE DOES INDEED BUILD
BACK INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA.

&&

.AVIATION...A FEW MVFR CEILINGS WILL OCCUR UNTIL A LITTLE AFTER
SUNRISE. THERE IS A LITTLE MORE LOW LEVEL WIND THIS MORNING...BUT
LOCAL IFR COULD BRIEFLY OCCUR TOO. THEN THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM
BECOMES THE TIMING OF STORMS. EXPECT THAT FROM ABOUT KVRB-KSUA
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR STORMS RATHER EARLY AGAIN...ABOUT
16-20Z...WITH THE REMAINING TERMINALS LIKELY HAVING THE GREATEST
CHANCE BETWEEN 18-22Z. A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH WIND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING STRIKES AND GUSTY WINDS OVER 30 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY-TONIGHT...SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE WITH
SPEEDS 10-15 KNOTS OFFSHORE AND 5-10 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE COAST. THE
MAIN MARINER CONCERN WILL BE OFFSHORE MOVING SHOWERS/STORMS WHICH
COULD MOVE OFFSHORE THE TREASURE COAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
STEERING FLOW WILL BE WEAK NORTHWARD TO THE VOLUSIA COAST...BUT A
FEW STRONG STORMS COULD AFFECT THE NEARSHORE WATERS LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON.

FRI-FRI NIGHT...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH.
MAINLY SSW/SW WINDS AROUND 10 KTS. SEAS GENERALLY AOB 3 FT.
WINDS/SEAS LOCALLY HIGHER INVOF OF STRONGER CONVECTION. OFFSHORE
MOVING STORM CELLS REMAIN A THREAT THROUGH THE PERIOD. COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS LOOKS RATHER HIGH AND STORMS SHOULD START TO PRODUCE
MORE FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES.

SAT-MON...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. LITTLE CHANGE IN MOIST SSW/SW WIND FLOW REGIME.
STORM MOTION STILL OFFSHORE BUT WEAKER. BOATERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
BE VIGILANT FOR MARINE STORMS... ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WIND SPEEDS AOB 15 KTS WITH SEAS 2-4 FT GENERALLY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  90  74  90  74 /  60  30  50  30
MCO  91  74  90  74 /  60  30  50  30
MLB  91  73  89  74 /  60  30  60  40
VRB  90  73  89  72 /  60  30  70  40
LEE  89  76  91  76 /  60  30  50  30
SFB  92  75  91  74 /  60  30  50  30
ORL  91  76  90  75 /  60  30  50  30
FPR  90  73  89  73 /  60  30  70  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LASCODY
LONG TERM....SEDLOCK




000
FXUS62 KMLB 300219 AAA
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1015 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

ACROSS THE NORTH...STRONG SFC HEATING COMBINED WITH SOME DRIER AIR
ALOFT AND SLIGHT COOLING AT 500 MB TO PRODUCE A COUPLE OF MARGINALLY
SEVERE STORMS OVER NORTH LAKE COUNTY DURING THE MID AFTN WITH SOME
DOWNED TREES. THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT WILL BE QUITE. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE THE NE FL COAST WILL GENERATE SOME STORMS
OVER THE ATLC BUT THESE WILL REMAIN AWAY FROM THE COAST BUT
LIGHTNING COULD BE SEEN FROM THE COAST.

PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
NORTH INTERIOR WHERE HEAVY RAIN OCCURRED TODAY.

THU...(PREVIOUS) MID LEVEL/500MB HIGH CENTERS OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND IN THE ATLANTIC SOUTHEAST OF
FLORIDA MOVE LITTLE AS DOES THE WEAK MID LEVEL/500MB TROUGHING OVER
FLORIDA BETWEEN THE TWO HIGH CENTERS. SURFACE TROUGHING STRETCHING
FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA NORTH
FLORIDA AND ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST MOVES LITTLE THIS PERIOD.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 2
INCHES FOR CENTRAL FLORIDA. CURRENT 60 POP FOR THURSDAY LOOKS GOOD.
HIGHS AROUND 90 AND LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION... MAINLY VFR OVERNIGHT BUT PATCHY MVFR/IFR CIGS POSSIBLE
ACROSS NORTHERN TERMINALS THROUGH 15Z. SCT TO NMRS SHRA/TSRA
EXPECTED TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE PENINSULA THU.


&&

.MARINE... NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO CURRENT COASTAL WATERS FCST.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE NE FL IN THE ATLC WILL GENERATE SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS REMAINING WELL OFFSHORE. W/SW FLOW AROUND 10 KNOTS
AND SEAS 1-2 FT NEARSHORE AND UP TO 3 FEET OFFSHORE.

THU-FRI...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL SUPPORT SOUTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS NEAR SHORE AND 10 TO 15 KNOTS IN THE OUTER WATERS.
MID LEVEL WIND FLOW IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN BUT WINDS IN THE LOWER
PORTION OF THE ATMOSPHERE OUT OF THE WEST LOOK SUFFICIENT TO PUSH
STORMS OFF THE PENINSULA INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS. COVERAGE LOOKS
RATHER HIGH AND STORMS SHOULD START TO PRODUCE MORE FREQUENT
LIGHTNING STRIKES.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  74  92  74  90 /  20  70  30  50
MCO  75  90  75  91 /  20  70  30  50
MLB  74  90  74  90 /  20  70  40  60
VRB  73  91  73  89 /  20  70  40  70
LEE  77  91  76  91 /  20  70  30  50
SFB  76  92  75  91 /  20  70  30  50
ORL  76  91  76  91 /  20  70  30  50
FPR  72  90  73  89 /  20  60  50  70

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

KELLY/WEITLICH





000
FXUS62 KMLB 300219 AAA
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1015 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

ACROSS THE NORTH...STRONG SFC HEATING COMBINED WITH SOME DRIER AIR
ALOFT AND SLIGHT COOLING AT 500 MB TO PRODUCE A COUPLE OF MARGINALLY
SEVERE STORMS OVER NORTH LAKE COUNTY DURING THE MID AFTN WITH SOME
DOWNED TREES. THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT WILL BE QUITE. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE THE NE FL COAST WILL GENERATE SOME STORMS
OVER THE ATLC BUT THESE WILL REMAIN AWAY FROM THE COAST BUT
LIGHTNING COULD BE SEEN FROM THE COAST.

PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
NORTH INTERIOR WHERE HEAVY RAIN OCCURRED TODAY.

THU...(PREVIOUS) MID LEVEL/500MB HIGH CENTERS OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND IN THE ATLANTIC SOUTHEAST OF
FLORIDA MOVE LITTLE AS DOES THE WEAK MID LEVEL/500MB TROUGHING OVER
FLORIDA BETWEEN THE TWO HIGH CENTERS. SURFACE TROUGHING STRETCHING
FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA NORTH
FLORIDA AND ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST MOVES LITTLE THIS PERIOD.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 2
INCHES FOR CENTRAL FLORIDA. CURRENT 60 POP FOR THURSDAY LOOKS GOOD.
HIGHS AROUND 90 AND LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION... MAINLY VFR OVERNIGHT BUT PATCHY MVFR/IFR CIGS POSSIBLE
ACROSS NORTHERN TERMINALS THROUGH 15Z. SCT TO NMRS SHRA/TSRA
EXPECTED TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE PENINSULA THU.


&&

.MARINE... NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO CURRENT COASTAL WATERS FCST.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE NE FL IN THE ATLC WILL GENERATE SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS REMAINING WELL OFFSHORE. W/SW FLOW AROUND 10 KNOTS
AND SEAS 1-2 FT NEARSHORE AND UP TO 3 FEET OFFSHORE.

THU-FRI...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL SUPPORT SOUTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS NEAR SHORE AND 10 TO 15 KNOTS IN THE OUTER WATERS.
MID LEVEL WIND FLOW IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN BUT WINDS IN THE LOWER
PORTION OF THE ATMOSPHERE OUT OF THE WEST LOOK SUFFICIENT TO PUSH
STORMS OFF THE PENINSULA INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS. COVERAGE LOOKS
RATHER HIGH AND STORMS SHOULD START TO PRODUCE MORE FREQUENT
LIGHTNING STRIKES.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  74  92  74  90 /  20  70  30  50
MCO  75  90  75  91 /  20  70  30  50
MLB  74  90  74  90 /  20  70  40  60
VRB  73  91  73  89 /  20  70  40  70
LEE  77  91  76  91 /  20  70  30  50
SFB  76  92  75  91 /  20  70  30  50
ORL  76  91  76  91 /  20  70  30  50
FPR  72  90  73  89 /  20  60  50  70

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

KELLY/WEITLICH




000
FXUS62 KMLB 300219 AAA
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1015 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

ACROSS THE NORTH...STRONG SFC HEATING COMBINED WITH SOME DRIER AIR
ALOFT AND SLIGHT COOLING AT 500 MB TO PRODUCE A COUPLE OF MARGINALLY
SEVERE STORMS OVER NORTH LAKE COUNTY DURING THE MID AFTN WITH SOME
DOWNED TREES. THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT WILL BE QUITE. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE THE NE FL COAST WILL GENERATE SOME STORMS
OVER THE ATLC BUT THESE WILL REMAIN AWAY FROM THE COAST BUT
LIGHTNING COULD BE SEEN FROM THE COAST.

PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
NORTH INTERIOR WHERE HEAVY RAIN OCCURRED TODAY.

THU...(PREVIOUS) MID LEVEL/500MB HIGH CENTERS OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND IN THE ATLANTIC SOUTHEAST OF
FLORIDA MOVE LITTLE AS DOES THE WEAK MID LEVEL/500MB TROUGHING OVER
FLORIDA BETWEEN THE TWO HIGH CENTERS. SURFACE TROUGHING STRETCHING
FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA NORTH
FLORIDA AND ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST MOVES LITTLE THIS PERIOD.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 2
INCHES FOR CENTRAL FLORIDA. CURRENT 60 POP FOR THURSDAY LOOKS GOOD.
HIGHS AROUND 90 AND LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION... MAINLY VFR OVERNIGHT BUT PATCHY MVFR/IFR CIGS POSSIBLE
ACROSS NORTHERN TERMINALS THROUGH 15Z. SCT TO NMRS SHRA/TSRA
EXPECTED TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE PENINSULA THU.


&&

.MARINE... NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO CURRENT COASTAL WATERS FCST.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE NE FL IN THE ATLC WILL GENERATE SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS REMAINING WELL OFFSHORE. W/SW FLOW AROUND 10 KNOTS
AND SEAS 1-2 FT NEARSHORE AND UP TO 3 FEET OFFSHORE.

THU-FRI...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL SUPPORT SOUTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS NEAR SHORE AND 10 TO 15 KNOTS IN THE OUTER WATERS.
MID LEVEL WIND FLOW IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN BUT WINDS IN THE LOWER
PORTION OF THE ATMOSPHERE OUT OF THE WEST LOOK SUFFICIENT TO PUSH
STORMS OFF THE PENINSULA INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS. COVERAGE LOOKS
RATHER HIGH AND STORMS SHOULD START TO PRODUCE MORE FREQUENT
LIGHTNING STRIKES.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  74  92  74  90 /  20  70  30  50
MCO  75  90  75  91 /  20  70  30  50
MLB  74  90  74  90 /  20  70  40  60
VRB  73  91  73  89 /  20  70  40  70
LEE  77  91  76  91 /  20  70  30  50
SFB  76  92  75  91 /  20  70  30  50
ORL  76  91  76  91 /  20  70  30  50
FPR  72  90  73  89 /  20  60  50  70

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

KELLY/WEITLICH





000
FXUS62 KMLB 300219 AAA
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1015 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

ACROSS THE NORTH...STRONG SFC HEATING COMBINED WITH SOME DRIER AIR
ALOFT AND SLIGHT COOLING AT 500 MB TO PRODUCE A COUPLE OF MARGINALLY
SEVERE STORMS OVER NORTH LAKE COUNTY DURING THE MID AFTN WITH SOME
DOWNED TREES. THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT WILL BE QUITE. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE THE NE FL COAST WILL GENERATE SOME STORMS
OVER THE ATLC BUT THESE WILL REMAIN AWAY FROM THE COAST BUT
LIGHTNING COULD BE SEEN FROM THE COAST.

PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
NORTH INTERIOR WHERE HEAVY RAIN OCCURRED TODAY.

THU...(PREVIOUS) MID LEVEL/500MB HIGH CENTERS OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND IN THE ATLANTIC SOUTHEAST OF
FLORIDA MOVE LITTLE AS DOES THE WEAK MID LEVEL/500MB TROUGHING OVER
FLORIDA BETWEEN THE TWO HIGH CENTERS. SURFACE TROUGHING STRETCHING
FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA NORTH
FLORIDA AND ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST MOVES LITTLE THIS PERIOD.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 2
INCHES FOR CENTRAL FLORIDA. CURRENT 60 POP FOR THURSDAY LOOKS GOOD.
HIGHS AROUND 90 AND LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION... MAINLY VFR OVERNIGHT BUT PATCHY MVFR/IFR CIGS POSSIBLE
ACROSS NORTHERN TERMINALS THROUGH 15Z. SCT TO NMRS SHRA/TSRA
EXPECTED TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE PENINSULA THU.


&&

.MARINE... NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO CURRENT COASTAL WATERS FCST.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE NE FL IN THE ATLC WILL GENERATE SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS REMAINING WELL OFFSHORE. W/SW FLOW AROUND 10 KNOTS
AND SEAS 1-2 FT NEARSHORE AND UP TO 3 FEET OFFSHORE.

THU-FRI...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL SUPPORT SOUTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS NEAR SHORE AND 10 TO 15 KNOTS IN THE OUTER WATERS.
MID LEVEL WIND FLOW IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN BUT WINDS IN THE LOWER
PORTION OF THE ATMOSPHERE OUT OF THE WEST LOOK SUFFICIENT TO PUSH
STORMS OFF THE PENINSULA INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS. COVERAGE LOOKS
RATHER HIGH AND STORMS SHOULD START TO PRODUCE MORE FREQUENT
LIGHTNING STRIKES.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  74  92  74  90 /  20  70  30  50
MCO  75  90  75  91 /  20  70  30  50
MLB  74  90  74  90 /  20  70  40  60
VRB  73  91  73  89 /  20  70  40  70
LEE  77  91  76  91 /  20  70  30  50
SFB  76  92  75  91 /  20  70  30  50
ORL  76  91  76  91 /  20  70  30  50
FPR  72  90  73  89 /  20  60  50  70

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

KELLY/WEITLICH




000
FXUS62 KMLB 291853
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
253 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT-FRI NIGHT...MID LEVEL/500MB HIGH CENTERS OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND IN THE ATLANTIC SOUTHEAST OF
FLORIDA MOVE LITTLE AS DOES THE MID LEVEL/500MB TROUGHING OVER
FLORIDA BETWEEN THE TWO HIGH CENTERS. IMPULSES OF MID LEVEL
ENERGY/VORTICITY CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVER
FLORIDA. SURFACE TROUGHING STRETCHING FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA NORTH FLORIDA AND ALONG THE U.S. EAST
COAST MOVES LITTLE THIS PERIOD. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 2 INCHES FOR CENTRAL FLORIDA. CURRENT
60 POP FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOKS GOOD. AS IN PREVIOUS
DAYS...LINGERING ISOLATED/SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN OR AN ISOLATED STORM
THROUGH MID EVENING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY THEN SOME BREAKING OF THE
CLOUDINESS AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGHS AROUND 90 AND LOWS IN THE MID AND
UPPER 70S.

PREVIOUS

WEEKEND...PLAINS MID/UPPER ANTICYCLONE WILL SLOWLY RETROGRADE WHILE
TROUGH GRADUALLY DIGS IN OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.  WEAK CUT OFF LOW
EAST OF THE WATERS EARLY SHOULD SHEAR OUT BY SUNDAY AS THE EASTERN
TROUGH DIGS. THE MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH SUBSIDENCE/DRYING ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THIS LOW AND KEEP PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES 2 INCHES OR
GREATER THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. ADDITIONALLY...MID LEVEL TEMPS
WILL COOL SLIGHTLY TO AROUND MINUS 7 CELSIUS. EXPECT THIS WILL LEAD
TO AN OVERALL GREATER COVERAGE OF STORMS WITH INCREASED LIGHTNING
ACTIVITY.

STEERING FLOW WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN...BUT WITH LOW LEVEL RIDGE
SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH PROVIDING SOUTHWEST FLOW...SUFFICIENT
FOCUSING FOR STORMS WILL EXIST OVER THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE
PENINSULA.

MOS/CONSENSUS POPS ARE ABOUT 50-60 PERCENT THROUGH THE PERIOD AND
SEE NO REASON TO DIFFER FROM THEM.

MON-WED...THE MODELS SHOW ATLANTIC RIDGE BUILDING BACK ACROSS THE
PENINSULA WED AS THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH LIFTS AND SOUTHERN
EXTENSION INTO FLORIDA SHIFTS WEST OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS
REPRESENTS A DELAYED TREND THOUGH...SO EXPECT MOISTURE TO REMAIN
HIGH AND POPS 50 PERCENT OR A LITTLE HIGHER SEEM WARRANTED...EXCEPT
POSSIBLY TRENDING LOWER WED...IF RIDGE DOES INDEED BUILD BACK INTO
CENTRAL FLORIDA.


&&

.AVIATION...
SCT SHRA/ISOLD TSRA WITH TEMPO IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH ANY CONVECTION
WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 35KTS. VICINITY OF TAF SITES STILL A GOOD CALL
FOR THE AFTERNOON. PATCHES OF LEFTOVER LIGHT RAIN FROM EARLIER
STORMS THROUGH MID EVENING. LOW CLOUDS FROM AROUND 09Z/LATE
OVERNIGHT THROUGH 14Z/MID MORNING THURSDAY.


&&

.MARINE...
BUOYS RECORDING SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS AT THE COAST
AND NEARSHORE...AND 15 TO 20 KNOTS AT BUOY 010 AT 12NM OFFSHORE. THE
OUTLIER WAS THE CMAN AT SAINT AUGUSTINE WHERE THE WIND WAS NORTHWEST
AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

WINDS FORECAST TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH DURING THE DAY AS
LOW PRESSURE OFF NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL FLORIDA TRACKS EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC. WINDS LOOK LIGHT ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR AN ONSHORE WIND
DOWN TO AT LEAST SEBASTIAN INLET IN THE AFTERNOON.

THU-FRI...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL SUPPORT SOUTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS NEAR SHORE AND 10 TO 15 KNOTS IN THE OUTER WATERS.
MID LEVEL WIND FLOW IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN BUT WINDS IN THE LOWER
PORTION OF THE ATMOSPHERE OUT OF THE WEST LOOK SUFFICIENT TO PUSH
STORMS OFF THE PENINSULA INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS. COVERAGE LOOKS
RATHER HIGH AND STORMS SHOULD START TO PRODUCE MORE FREQUENT
LIGHTNING STRIKES.

WEEKEND...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE MOIST SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW REGIME.
BOATERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE VIGILANT FOR MARINE STORMS...
ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  74  92  74  90 /  20  70  30  50
MCO  75  90  75  91 /  20  70  30  50
MLB  74  90  74  90 /  20  70  40  60
VRB  73  91  73  89 /  20  70  40  70
LEE  77  91  76  91 /  20  70  30  50
SFB  76  92  75  91 /  20  70  30  50
ORL  76  91  76  91 /  20  70  30  50
FPR  72  90  73  89 /  20  60  50  70

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

IMPACT WX...PENDERGRAST
FORECASTS...WIMMER





000
FXUS62 KMLB 291853
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
253 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT-FRI NIGHT...MID LEVEL/500MB HIGH CENTERS OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND IN THE ATLANTIC SOUTHEAST OF
FLORIDA MOVE LITTLE AS DOES THE MID LEVEL/500MB TROUGHING OVER
FLORIDA BETWEEN THE TWO HIGH CENTERS. IMPULSES OF MID LEVEL
ENERGY/VORTICITY CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVER
FLORIDA. SURFACE TROUGHING STRETCHING FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA NORTH FLORIDA AND ALONG THE U.S. EAST
COAST MOVES LITTLE THIS PERIOD. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 2 INCHES FOR CENTRAL FLORIDA. CURRENT
60 POP FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOKS GOOD. AS IN PREVIOUS
DAYS...LINGERING ISOLATED/SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN OR AN ISOLATED STORM
THROUGH MID EVENING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY THEN SOME BREAKING OF THE
CLOUDINESS AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGHS AROUND 90 AND LOWS IN THE MID AND
UPPER 70S.

PREVIOUS

WEEKEND...PLAINS MID/UPPER ANTICYCLONE WILL SLOWLY RETROGRADE WHILE
TROUGH GRADUALLY DIGS IN OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.  WEAK CUT OFF LOW
EAST OF THE WATERS EARLY SHOULD SHEAR OUT BY SUNDAY AS THE EASTERN
TROUGH DIGS. THE MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH SUBSIDENCE/DRYING ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THIS LOW AND KEEP PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES 2 INCHES OR
GREATER THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. ADDITIONALLY...MID LEVEL TEMPS
WILL COOL SLIGHTLY TO AROUND MINUS 7 CELSIUS. EXPECT THIS WILL LEAD
TO AN OVERALL GREATER COVERAGE OF STORMS WITH INCREASED LIGHTNING
ACTIVITY.

STEERING FLOW WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN...BUT WITH LOW LEVEL RIDGE
SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH PROVIDING SOUTHWEST FLOW...SUFFICIENT
FOCUSING FOR STORMS WILL EXIST OVER THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE
PENINSULA.

MOS/CONSENSUS POPS ARE ABOUT 50-60 PERCENT THROUGH THE PERIOD AND
SEE NO REASON TO DIFFER FROM THEM.

MON-WED...THE MODELS SHOW ATLANTIC RIDGE BUILDING BACK ACROSS THE
PENINSULA WED AS THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH LIFTS AND SOUTHERN
EXTENSION INTO FLORIDA SHIFTS WEST OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS
REPRESENTS A DELAYED TREND THOUGH...SO EXPECT MOISTURE TO REMAIN
HIGH AND POPS 50 PERCENT OR A LITTLE HIGHER SEEM WARRANTED...EXCEPT
POSSIBLY TRENDING LOWER WED...IF RIDGE DOES INDEED BUILD BACK INTO
CENTRAL FLORIDA.


&&

.AVIATION...
SCT SHRA/ISOLD TSRA WITH TEMPO IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH ANY CONVECTION
WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 35KTS. VICINITY OF TAF SITES STILL A GOOD CALL
FOR THE AFTERNOON. PATCHES OF LEFTOVER LIGHT RAIN FROM EARLIER
STORMS THROUGH MID EVENING. LOW CLOUDS FROM AROUND 09Z/LATE
OVERNIGHT THROUGH 14Z/MID MORNING THURSDAY.


&&

.MARINE...
BUOYS RECORDING SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS AT THE COAST
AND NEARSHORE...AND 15 TO 20 KNOTS AT BUOY 010 AT 12NM OFFSHORE. THE
OUTLIER WAS THE CMAN AT SAINT AUGUSTINE WHERE THE WIND WAS NORTHWEST
AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

WINDS FORECAST TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH DURING THE DAY AS
LOW PRESSURE OFF NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL FLORIDA TRACKS EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC. WINDS LOOK LIGHT ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR AN ONSHORE WIND
DOWN TO AT LEAST SEBASTIAN INLET IN THE AFTERNOON.

THU-FRI...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL SUPPORT SOUTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS NEAR SHORE AND 10 TO 15 KNOTS IN THE OUTER WATERS.
MID LEVEL WIND FLOW IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN BUT WINDS IN THE LOWER
PORTION OF THE ATMOSPHERE OUT OF THE WEST LOOK SUFFICIENT TO PUSH
STORMS OFF THE PENINSULA INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS. COVERAGE LOOKS
RATHER HIGH AND STORMS SHOULD START TO PRODUCE MORE FREQUENT
LIGHTNING STRIKES.

WEEKEND...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE MOIST SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW REGIME.
BOATERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE VIGILANT FOR MARINE STORMS...
ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  74  92  74  90 /  20  70  30  50
MCO  75  90  75  91 /  20  70  30  50
MLB  74  90  74  90 /  20  70  40  60
VRB  73  91  73  89 /  20  70  40  70
LEE  77  91  76  91 /  20  70  30  50
SFB  76  92  75  91 /  20  70  30  50
ORL  76  91  76  91 /  20  70  30  50
FPR  72  90  73  89 /  20  60  50  70

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

IMPACT WX...PENDERGRAST
FORECASTS...WIMMER




000
FXUS62 KMLB 291853
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
253 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT-FRI NIGHT...MID LEVEL/500MB HIGH CENTERS OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND IN THE ATLANTIC SOUTHEAST OF
FLORIDA MOVE LITTLE AS DOES THE MID LEVEL/500MB TROUGHING OVER
FLORIDA BETWEEN THE TWO HIGH CENTERS. IMPULSES OF MID LEVEL
ENERGY/VORTICITY CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVER
FLORIDA. SURFACE TROUGHING STRETCHING FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA NORTH FLORIDA AND ALONG THE U.S. EAST
COAST MOVES LITTLE THIS PERIOD. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 2 INCHES FOR CENTRAL FLORIDA. CURRENT
60 POP FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOKS GOOD. AS IN PREVIOUS
DAYS...LINGERING ISOLATED/SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN OR AN ISOLATED STORM
THROUGH MID EVENING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY THEN SOME BREAKING OF THE
CLOUDINESS AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGHS AROUND 90 AND LOWS IN THE MID AND
UPPER 70S.

PREVIOUS

WEEKEND...PLAINS MID/UPPER ANTICYCLONE WILL SLOWLY RETROGRADE WHILE
TROUGH GRADUALLY DIGS IN OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.  WEAK CUT OFF LOW
EAST OF THE WATERS EARLY SHOULD SHEAR OUT BY SUNDAY AS THE EASTERN
TROUGH DIGS. THE MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH SUBSIDENCE/DRYING ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THIS LOW AND KEEP PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES 2 INCHES OR
GREATER THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. ADDITIONALLY...MID LEVEL TEMPS
WILL COOL SLIGHTLY TO AROUND MINUS 7 CELSIUS. EXPECT THIS WILL LEAD
TO AN OVERALL GREATER COVERAGE OF STORMS WITH INCREASED LIGHTNING
ACTIVITY.

STEERING FLOW WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN...BUT WITH LOW LEVEL RIDGE
SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH PROVIDING SOUTHWEST FLOW...SUFFICIENT
FOCUSING FOR STORMS WILL EXIST OVER THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE
PENINSULA.

MOS/CONSENSUS POPS ARE ABOUT 50-60 PERCENT THROUGH THE PERIOD AND
SEE NO REASON TO DIFFER FROM THEM.

MON-WED...THE MODELS SHOW ATLANTIC RIDGE BUILDING BACK ACROSS THE
PENINSULA WED AS THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH LIFTS AND SOUTHERN
EXTENSION INTO FLORIDA SHIFTS WEST OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS
REPRESENTS A DELAYED TREND THOUGH...SO EXPECT MOISTURE TO REMAIN
HIGH AND POPS 50 PERCENT OR A LITTLE HIGHER SEEM WARRANTED...EXCEPT
POSSIBLY TRENDING LOWER WED...IF RIDGE DOES INDEED BUILD BACK INTO
CENTRAL FLORIDA.


&&

.AVIATION...
SCT SHRA/ISOLD TSRA WITH TEMPO IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH ANY CONVECTION
WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 35KTS. VICINITY OF TAF SITES STILL A GOOD CALL
FOR THE AFTERNOON. PATCHES OF LEFTOVER LIGHT RAIN FROM EARLIER
STORMS THROUGH MID EVENING. LOW CLOUDS FROM AROUND 09Z/LATE
OVERNIGHT THROUGH 14Z/MID MORNING THURSDAY.


&&

.MARINE...
BUOYS RECORDING SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS AT THE COAST
AND NEARSHORE...AND 15 TO 20 KNOTS AT BUOY 010 AT 12NM OFFSHORE. THE
OUTLIER WAS THE CMAN AT SAINT AUGUSTINE WHERE THE WIND WAS NORTHWEST
AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

WINDS FORECAST TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH DURING THE DAY AS
LOW PRESSURE OFF NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL FLORIDA TRACKS EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC. WINDS LOOK LIGHT ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR AN ONSHORE WIND
DOWN TO AT LEAST SEBASTIAN INLET IN THE AFTERNOON.

THU-FRI...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL SUPPORT SOUTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS NEAR SHORE AND 10 TO 15 KNOTS IN THE OUTER WATERS.
MID LEVEL WIND FLOW IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN BUT WINDS IN THE LOWER
PORTION OF THE ATMOSPHERE OUT OF THE WEST LOOK SUFFICIENT TO PUSH
STORMS OFF THE PENINSULA INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS. COVERAGE LOOKS
RATHER HIGH AND STORMS SHOULD START TO PRODUCE MORE FREQUENT
LIGHTNING STRIKES.

WEEKEND...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE MOIST SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW REGIME.
BOATERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE VIGILANT FOR MARINE STORMS...
ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  74  92  74  90 /  20  70  30  50
MCO  75  90  75  91 /  20  70  30  50
MLB  74  90  74  90 /  20  70  40  60
VRB  73  91  73  89 /  20  70  40  70
LEE  77  91  76  91 /  20  70  30  50
SFB  76  92  75  91 /  20  70  30  50
ORL  76  91  76  91 /  20  70  30  50
FPR  72  90  73  89 /  20  60  50  70

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

IMPACT WX...PENDERGRAST
FORECASTS...WIMMER





000
FXUS62 KMLB 291853
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
253 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT-FRI NIGHT...MID LEVEL/500MB HIGH CENTERS OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND IN THE ATLANTIC SOUTHEAST OF
FLORIDA MOVE LITTLE AS DOES THE MID LEVEL/500MB TROUGHING OVER
FLORIDA BETWEEN THE TWO HIGH CENTERS. IMPULSES OF MID LEVEL
ENERGY/VORTICITY CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVER
FLORIDA. SURFACE TROUGHING STRETCHING FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA NORTH FLORIDA AND ALONG THE U.S. EAST
COAST MOVES LITTLE THIS PERIOD. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 2 INCHES FOR CENTRAL FLORIDA. CURRENT
60 POP FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOKS GOOD. AS IN PREVIOUS
DAYS...LINGERING ISOLATED/SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN OR AN ISOLATED STORM
THROUGH MID EVENING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY THEN SOME BREAKING OF THE
CLOUDINESS AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGHS AROUND 90 AND LOWS IN THE MID AND
UPPER 70S.

PREVIOUS

WEEKEND...PLAINS MID/UPPER ANTICYCLONE WILL SLOWLY RETROGRADE WHILE
TROUGH GRADUALLY DIGS IN OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.  WEAK CUT OFF LOW
EAST OF THE WATERS EARLY SHOULD SHEAR OUT BY SUNDAY AS THE EASTERN
TROUGH DIGS. THE MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH SUBSIDENCE/DRYING ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THIS LOW AND KEEP PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES 2 INCHES OR
GREATER THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. ADDITIONALLY...MID LEVEL TEMPS
WILL COOL SLIGHTLY TO AROUND MINUS 7 CELSIUS. EXPECT THIS WILL LEAD
TO AN OVERALL GREATER COVERAGE OF STORMS WITH INCREASED LIGHTNING
ACTIVITY.

STEERING FLOW WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN...BUT WITH LOW LEVEL RIDGE
SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH PROVIDING SOUTHWEST FLOW...SUFFICIENT
FOCUSING FOR STORMS WILL EXIST OVER THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE
PENINSULA.

MOS/CONSENSUS POPS ARE ABOUT 50-60 PERCENT THROUGH THE PERIOD AND
SEE NO REASON TO DIFFER FROM THEM.

MON-WED...THE MODELS SHOW ATLANTIC RIDGE BUILDING BACK ACROSS THE
PENINSULA WED AS THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH LIFTS AND SOUTHERN
EXTENSION INTO FLORIDA SHIFTS WEST OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS
REPRESENTS A DELAYED TREND THOUGH...SO EXPECT MOISTURE TO REMAIN
HIGH AND POPS 50 PERCENT OR A LITTLE HIGHER SEEM WARRANTED...EXCEPT
POSSIBLY TRENDING LOWER WED...IF RIDGE DOES INDEED BUILD BACK INTO
CENTRAL FLORIDA.


&&

.AVIATION...
SCT SHRA/ISOLD TSRA WITH TEMPO IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH ANY CONVECTION
WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 35KTS. VICINITY OF TAF SITES STILL A GOOD CALL
FOR THE AFTERNOON. PATCHES OF LEFTOVER LIGHT RAIN FROM EARLIER
STORMS THROUGH MID EVENING. LOW CLOUDS FROM AROUND 09Z/LATE
OVERNIGHT THROUGH 14Z/MID MORNING THURSDAY.


&&

.MARINE...
BUOYS RECORDING SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS AT THE COAST
AND NEARSHORE...AND 15 TO 20 KNOTS AT BUOY 010 AT 12NM OFFSHORE. THE
OUTLIER WAS THE CMAN AT SAINT AUGUSTINE WHERE THE WIND WAS NORTHWEST
AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

WINDS FORECAST TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH DURING THE DAY AS
LOW PRESSURE OFF NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL FLORIDA TRACKS EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC. WINDS LOOK LIGHT ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR AN ONSHORE WIND
DOWN TO AT LEAST SEBASTIAN INLET IN THE AFTERNOON.

THU-FRI...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL SUPPORT SOUTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS NEAR SHORE AND 10 TO 15 KNOTS IN THE OUTER WATERS.
MID LEVEL WIND FLOW IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN BUT WINDS IN THE LOWER
PORTION OF THE ATMOSPHERE OUT OF THE WEST LOOK SUFFICIENT TO PUSH
STORMS OFF THE PENINSULA INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS. COVERAGE LOOKS
RATHER HIGH AND STORMS SHOULD START TO PRODUCE MORE FREQUENT
LIGHTNING STRIKES.

WEEKEND...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE MOIST SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW REGIME.
BOATERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE VIGILANT FOR MARINE STORMS...
ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  74  92  74  90 /  20  70  30  50
MCO  75  90  75  91 /  20  70  30  50
MLB  74  90  74  90 /  20  70  40  60
VRB  73  91  73  89 /  20  70  40  70
LEE  77  91  76  91 /  20  70  30  50
SFB  76  92  75  91 /  20  70  30  50
ORL  76  91  76  91 /  20  70  30  50
FPR  72  90  73  89 /  20  60  50  70

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

IMPACT WX...PENDERGRAST
FORECASTS...WIMMER




000
FXUS62 KMLB 291304
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
9 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.DISCUSSION... PER THE 29/12Z SOUNDINGS THE 500MB TROUGH AXIS LOOKS
TO HAVE PUSHED SOUTH TO THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE AREA. THE 12Z/8AM BUOY
REPORTS INDICATE THAT THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS WAS STILL LAGGING BACK
TO AROUND THE CAPE CANAVERAL AREA. WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS RELATIVELY
DRIER MID/UPPER LEVEL AIR MASS TRYING TO WORK ITS WAY ACROSS NORTH
FLORIDA AND TOWARD CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE 12Z SOUNDINGS INDICATE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES STILL HIGH AND RANGE FROM 1.95 AT
TALLAHASSEE TO 2.26 AT CAPE CANAVERAL. RAIN CHANCES TO REMAIN HIGH
RANGING FROM AROUND 50 PERCENT NORTH TO 30 PERCENT SOUTH. MODELS
BOTH LONGER TERM/GFS AND SHORT TERM MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR AND
LOCAL WRF/S INDICATE THAT THE LOW OFF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK AWAY FROM FLORIDA. THE WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
NORTH AND WINDS SPEEDS LOOK LIGHT ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZES.

.AVIATION...SCATTERED TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AND
MIST/FOG UNTIL 29/1400Z. WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT HOLD DOWN
THUNDERSTORMS PROBABILITY SO WILL KEEP VCTS FOR THE AFTERNOON.

.MARINE...BUOYS RECORDING SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS AT THE COAST
AND NEARSHORE...AND 15 TO 20 KNOTS AT BUOY 010 AT 12NM OFFSHORE. THE
OUTLIER WAS THE CMAN AT SAINT AUGUSTINE WHERE THE WIND WAS NORTHWEST
AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

WINDS FORECAST TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH DURING THE DAY AS
LOW PRESSURE OFF NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL FLORIDA TRACKS EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC. WINDS LOOK LIGHT ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR AN ONSHORE WIND
DOWN TO AT LEAST SEBASTIAN INLET IN THE AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS AFD

TODAY-TONIGHT...LOCAL WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE DRIVEN BY THE
DIFFUSE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY MEANDERING ACROSS THE NORTH/CENTRAL
PENINSULA. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A BROAD AND WEAK SURFACE
LOW OVER NE FLORIDA AND ADJACENT ATLANTIC WITH THE LOW LEVEL
BOUNDARY MARKED BY A SLIGHT WIND SHIFT SOMEWHERE IN NORTH FLORIDA/S
GEORGIA.

MODELS SHOW SURFACE LOW CONSOLIDATING OF TO OUR NE OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS (THOUGH WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DEEPENING)...WHICH WILL BE
ENOUGH TO DRIVE THE BOUNDARY A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH AND MORE
SOLIDLY BACK INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA. THIS OCCURS WHILE THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ALSO SHIFTS MORE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON.

THE NET RESULT IS THAT THE NARROWING DEEP MOISTURE BAND ASSOCIATED
WITH THESE FEATURES WILL BE PUSHED A LITTLE MORE SOUTHWARDS TODAY AS
THE PREVAILING LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW ALSO BECOMES MORE WEST-NORTHWEST.
MODELS SHOW SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE NOT QUITE AS HIGH AS THE PAST FEW
DAYS...THOUGH STILL NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL AT 30-50%. PINPOINTING THE
HIGHEST RAIN COVERAGE WILL BE SOMEWHAT COMPLEX GIVEN WHERE THE
BOUNDARY ENDS UP AND HOW MUCH DRY AIR MANAGES TO WORK ITS WAY IN.
UPSTREAM 29/00Z SOUNDING AT JAX HAD A PWAT OF ONLY 1.55"...MUCH
BELOW THE 2"+ AT TAMPA AND THE CAPE...BUT INDICATES DRIER AIR IS NOT
TOO FAR AWAY. ALSO WINDS LOOK LIGHT ENOUGH FOR A SEA BREEZE TO
DEVELOP NORTH OF THE CAPE IN THE AFTERNOON...WHICH IN COMBINATION
WITH DRIER AIR WILL LIKELY SHIFT RAIN AWAY FROM THE NORTHERN COASTAL
AREAS INTO THE I-4 CORRIDOR. ATMOSPHERE REMAINS WARM ALOFT SO WILL
CONTINUE TO WORD FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS.

THU-WEEKEND...PLAINS MID/UPPER ANTICYCLONE WILL SLOWLY RETROGRADE
WHILE TROUGH GRADUALLY DIGS IN OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.  WEAK CUT
OFF LOW EAST OF THE WATERS EARLY SHOULD SHEAR OUT BY SUNDAY AS THE
EASTERN TROUGH DIGS. THE MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH SUBSIDENCE/DRYING
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS LOW AND KEEP PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES 2
INCHES OR GREATER THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. ADDITIONALLY...MID
LEVEL TEMPS WILL COOL SLIGHTLY TO AROUND MINUS 7 CELSIUS. EXPECT
THIS WILL LEAD TO AN OVERALL GREATER COVERAGE OF STORMS WITH
INCREASED LIGHTNING ACTIVITY.

STEERING FLOW WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN...BUT WITH LOW LEVEL RIDGE
SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH PROVIDING SOUTHWEST FLOW...SUFFICIENT
FOCUSING FOR STORMS WILL EXIST OVER THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE
PENINSULA.

MOS/CONSENSUS POPS ARE ABOUT 50-60 PERCENT THROUGH THE PERIOD AND
SEE NO REASON TO DIFFER FROM THEM.

MON-WED...THE MODELS SHOW ATLANTIC RIDGE BUILDING BACK ACROSS
THE PENINSULA WED AS THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH LIFTS AND SOUTHERN
EXTENSION INTO FLORIDA SHIFTS WEST OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS
REPRESENTS A DELAYED TREND THOUGH...SO EXPECT MOISTURE TO REMAIN
HIGH AND POPS 50 PERCENT OR A LITTLE HIGHER SEEM WARRANTED...EXCEPT
POSSIBLY TRENDING LOWER WED...IF RIDGE DOES INDEED BUILD BACK INTO
CENTRAL FLORIDA.

&&

.AVIATION...
PATCHY MVFR AND IFR CIGS PRESENT AGAIN THIS MORNING THOUGH WITH
CONSIDERABLY LESS AREAL EXTENT THAN THE PAST FEW NIGHTS. WILL KEEP
THE MENTION OF SCT LOW CLOUDS IN SITES THAT HAVE BEEN REPORTING THE
STRATUS AND MONITOR FOR BKN-OVC CONDITIONS. OVERALL THINK ANY CIGS
WILL BE VERY SHORT LIVED.

THE BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN FLIRTING WITH THE REGION DROPS BACK
SOUTHWARDS THIS MORNING AND SITES FROM KMLB-KLAL NORTHWARDS WILL SEE
A NW WIND COMPONENT THROUGH MIDDAY. SPEEDS WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH FOR
SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT NORTH OF KTTS...POSSIBLY REACHING AS FAR
INLAND AS KDED IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.

SCT SHRA/ISOLD TSRA DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION AFTER 15Z. TEMPO
IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH ANY CONVECTION WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 35KTS.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY-TONIGHT...WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH PUSHES SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL
FLORIDA WITH N/NW WINDS DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE CAPE TOWARDS
DAYBREAK THIS MORNING WITH WINDS FURTHER SOUTH REMAINING W/SW. LOCAL
OBSERVATIONS SHOW SPEEDS HAVE WEAKENED TO 10-15KTS WITH MODELS
SHOWING SPEEDS AROUND THIS LEVEL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY SO
WILL NOT EXTEND CAUTIONARY STATEMENT. NORTH OF THE CAPE...FLOW WILL
BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO ALLOW SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP WITH WINDS BECOMING
VARIABLE TO EAST-NORTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON. W/SW FLOW RE-
ESTABLISHES OVER ALL THE WATERS OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL BE AROUND 2FT
NEARSHORE 2-3 FEET OFFSHORE.

COVERAGE OF STORMS NOT QUITE AS HIGH AS PREVIOUS FEW DAYS WITH STORM
MOTION BECOMING MORE TO THE SOUTH. HOWEVER STILL COULD SEE A FEW
STORMS PUSHING OFF THE COAST SOUTH OF THE CAPE.

THU-FRI...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL SUPPORT SOUTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS NEAR SHORE AND 10 TO 15 KNOTS IN THE OUTER WATERS.
MID LEVEL WIND FLOW IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN BUT WINDS IN THE LOWER
PORTION OF THE ATMOSPHERE OUT OF THE WEST LOOK SUFFICIENT TO PUSH
STORMS OFF THE PENINSULA INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS. COVERAGE LOOKS
RATHER HIGH AND STORMS SHOULD START TO PRODUCE MORE FREQUENT
LIGHTNING STRIKES.

WEEKEND...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE MOIST SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW REGIME.
BOATERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE VIGILANT FOR MARINE STORMS...
ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  92  75  91  75 /  50  20  60  30
MCO  94  76  91  75 /  50  20  60  30
MLB  92  74  90  74 /  50  20  60  30
VRB  91  73  91  74 /  50  20  60  40
LEE  92  77  90  77 /  50  20  60  30
SFB  92  77  91  76 /  50  20  60  30
ORL  94  77  91  76 /  50  20  60  30
FPR  91  74  91  74 /  40  20  60  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

IMPACT WX...PENDERGRAST
FORECASTS...WIMMER





000
FXUS62 KMLB 291304
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
9 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.DISCUSSION... PER THE 29/12Z SOUNDINGS THE 500MB TROUGH AXIS LOOKS
TO HAVE PUSHED SOUTH TO THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE AREA. THE 12Z/8AM BUOY
REPORTS INDICATE THAT THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS WAS STILL LAGGING BACK
TO AROUND THE CAPE CANAVERAL AREA. WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS RELATIVELY
DRIER MID/UPPER LEVEL AIR MASS TRYING TO WORK ITS WAY ACROSS NORTH
FLORIDA AND TOWARD CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE 12Z SOUNDINGS INDICATE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES STILL HIGH AND RANGE FROM 1.95 AT
TALLAHASSEE TO 2.26 AT CAPE CANAVERAL. RAIN CHANCES TO REMAIN HIGH
RANGING FROM AROUND 50 PERCENT NORTH TO 30 PERCENT SOUTH. MODELS
BOTH LONGER TERM/GFS AND SHORT TERM MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR AND
LOCAL WRF/S INDICATE THAT THE LOW OFF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK AWAY FROM FLORIDA. THE WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
NORTH AND WINDS SPEEDS LOOK LIGHT ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZES.

.AVIATION...SCATTERED TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AND
MIST/FOG UNTIL 29/1400Z. WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT HOLD DOWN
THUNDERSTORMS PROBABILITY SO WILL KEEP VCTS FOR THE AFTERNOON.

.MARINE...BUOYS RECORDING SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS AT THE COAST
AND NEARSHORE...AND 15 TO 20 KNOTS AT BUOY 010 AT 12NM OFFSHORE. THE
OUTLIER WAS THE CMAN AT SAINT AUGUSTINE WHERE THE WIND WAS NORTHWEST
AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

WINDS FORECAST TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH DURING THE DAY AS
LOW PRESSURE OFF NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL FLORIDA TRACKS EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC. WINDS LOOK LIGHT ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR AN ONSHORE WIND
DOWN TO AT LEAST SEBASTIAN INLET IN THE AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS AFD

TODAY-TONIGHT...LOCAL WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE DRIVEN BY THE
DIFFUSE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY MEANDERING ACROSS THE NORTH/CENTRAL
PENINSULA. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A BROAD AND WEAK SURFACE
LOW OVER NE FLORIDA AND ADJACENT ATLANTIC WITH THE LOW LEVEL
BOUNDARY MARKED BY A SLIGHT WIND SHIFT SOMEWHERE IN NORTH FLORIDA/S
GEORGIA.

MODELS SHOW SURFACE LOW CONSOLIDATING OF TO OUR NE OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS (THOUGH WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DEEPENING)...WHICH WILL BE
ENOUGH TO DRIVE THE BOUNDARY A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH AND MORE
SOLIDLY BACK INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA. THIS OCCURS WHILE THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ALSO SHIFTS MORE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON.

THE NET RESULT IS THAT THE NARROWING DEEP MOISTURE BAND ASSOCIATED
WITH THESE FEATURES WILL BE PUSHED A LITTLE MORE SOUTHWARDS TODAY AS
THE PREVAILING LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW ALSO BECOMES MORE WEST-NORTHWEST.
MODELS SHOW SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE NOT QUITE AS HIGH AS THE PAST FEW
DAYS...THOUGH STILL NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL AT 30-50%. PINPOINTING THE
HIGHEST RAIN COVERAGE WILL BE SOMEWHAT COMPLEX GIVEN WHERE THE
BOUNDARY ENDS UP AND HOW MUCH DRY AIR MANAGES TO WORK ITS WAY IN.
UPSTREAM 29/00Z SOUNDING AT JAX HAD A PWAT OF ONLY 1.55"...MUCH
BELOW THE 2"+ AT TAMPA AND THE CAPE...BUT INDICATES DRIER AIR IS NOT
TOO FAR AWAY. ALSO WINDS LOOK LIGHT ENOUGH FOR A SEA BREEZE TO
DEVELOP NORTH OF THE CAPE IN THE AFTERNOON...WHICH IN COMBINATION
WITH DRIER AIR WILL LIKELY SHIFT RAIN AWAY FROM THE NORTHERN COASTAL
AREAS INTO THE I-4 CORRIDOR. ATMOSPHERE REMAINS WARM ALOFT SO WILL
CONTINUE TO WORD FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS.

THU-WEEKEND...PLAINS MID/UPPER ANTICYCLONE WILL SLOWLY RETROGRADE
WHILE TROUGH GRADUALLY DIGS IN OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.  WEAK CUT
OFF LOW EAST OF THE WATERS EARLY SHOULD SHEAR OUT BY SUNDAY AS THE
EASTERN TROUGH DIGS. THE MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH SUBSIDENCE/DRYING
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS LOW AND KEEP PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES 2
INCHES OR GREATER THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. ADDITIONALLY...MID
LEVEL TEMPS WILL COOL SLIGHTLY TO AROUND MINUS 7 CELSIUS. EXPECT
THIS WILL LEAD TO AN OVERALL GREATER COVERAGE OF STORMS WITH
INCREASED LIGHTNING ACTIVITY.

STEERING FLOW WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN...BUT WITH LOW LEVEL RIDGE
SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH PROVIDING SOUTHWEST FLOW...SUFFICIENT
FOCUSING FOR STORMS WILL EXIST OVER THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE
PENINSULA.

MOS/CONSENSUS POPS ARE ABOUT 50-60 PERCENT THROUGH THE PERIOD AND
SEE NO REASON TO DIFFER FROM THEM.

MON-WED...THE MODELS SHOW ATLANTIC RIDGE BUILDING BACK ACROSS
THE PENINSULA WED AS THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH LIFTS AND SOUTHERN
EXTENSION INTO FLORIDA SHIFTS WEST OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS
REPRESENTS A DELAYED TREND THOUGH...SO EXPECT MOISTURE TO REMAIN
HIGH AND POPS 50 PERCENT OR A LITTLE HIGHER SEEM WARRANTED...EXCEPT
POSSIBLY TRENDING LOWER WED...IF RIDGE DOES INDEED BUILD BACK INTO
CENTRAL FLORIDA.

&&

.AVIATION...
PATCHY MVFR AND IFR CIGS PRESENT AGAIN THIS MORNING THOUGH WITH
CONSIDERABLY LESS AREAL EXTENT THAN THE PAST FEW NIGHTS. WILL KEEP
THE MENTION OF SCT LOW CLOUDS IN SITES THAT HAVE BEEN REPORTING THE
STRATUS AND MONITOR FOR BKN-OVC CONDITIONS. OVERALL THINK ANY CIGS
WILL BE VERY SHORT LIVED.

THE BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN FLIRTING WITH THE REGION DROPS BACK
SOUTHWARDS THIS MORNING AND SITES FROM KMLB-KLAL NORTHWARDS WILL SEE
A NW WIND COMPONENT THROUGH MIDDAY. SPEEDS WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH FOR
SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT NORTH OF KTTS...POSSIBLY REACHING AS FAR
INLAND AS KDED IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.

SCT SHRA/ISOLD TSRA DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION AFTER 15Z. TEMPO
IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH ANY CONVECTION WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 35KTS.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY-TONIGHT...WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH PUSHES SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL
FLORIDA WITH N/NW WINDS DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE CAPE TOWARDS
DAYBREAK THIS MORNING WITH WINDS FURTHER SOUTH REMAINING W/SW. LOCAL
OBSERVATIONS SHOW SPEEDS HAVE WEAKENED TO 10-15KTS WITH MODELS
SHOWING SPEEDS AROUND THIS LEVEL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY SO
WILL NOT EXTEND CAUTIONARY STATEMENT. NORTH OF THE CAPE...FLOW WILL
BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO ALLOW SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP WITH WINDS BECOMING
VARIABLE TO EAST-NORTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON. W/SW FLOW RE-
ESTABLISHES OVER ALL THE WATERS OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL BE AROUND 2FT
NEARSHORE 2-3 FEET OFFSHORE.

COVERAGE OF STORMS NOT QUITE AS HIGH AS PREVIOUS FEW DAYS WITH STORM
MOTION BECOMING MORE TO THE SOUTH. HOWEVER STILL COULD SEE A FEW
STORMS PUSHING OFF THE COAST SOUTH OF THE CAPE.

THU-FRI...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL SUPPORT SOUTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS NEAR SHORE AND 10 TO 15 KNOTS IN THE OUTER WATERS.
MID LEVEL WIND FLOW IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN BUT WINDS IN THE LOWER
PORTION OF THE ATMOSPHERE OUT OF THE WEST LOOK SUFFICIENT TO PUSH
STORMS OFF THE PENINSULA INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS. COVERAGE LOOKS
RATHER HIGH AND STORMS SHOULD START TO PRODUCE MORE FREQUENT
LIGHTNING STRIKES.

WEEKEND...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE MOIST SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW REGIME.
BOATERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE VIGILANT FOR MARINE STORMS...
ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  92  75  91  75 /  50  20  60  30
MCO  94  76  91  75 /  50  20  60  30
MLB  92  74  90  74 /  50  20  60  30
VRB  91  73  91  74 /  50  20  60  40
LEE  92  77  90  77 /  50  20  60  30
SFB  92  77  91  76 /  50  20  60  30
ORL  94  77  91  76 /  50  20  60  30
FPR  91  74  91  74 /  40  20  60  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

IMPACT WX...PENDERGRAST
FORECASTS...WIMMER




000
FXUS62 KMLB 291304
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
9 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.DISCUSSION... PER THE 29/12Z SOUNDINGS THE 500MB TROUGH AXIS LOOKS
TO HAVE PUSHED SOUTH TO THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE AREA. THE 12Z/8AM BUOY
REPORTS INDICATE THAT THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS WAS STILL LAGGING BACK
TO AROUND THE CAPE CANAVERAL AREA. WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS RELATIVELY
DRIER MID/UPPER LEVEL AIR MASS TRYING TO WORK ITS WAY ACROSS NORTH
FLORIDA AND TOWARD CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE 12Z SOUNDINGS INDICATE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES STILL HIGH AND RANGE FROM 1.95 AT
TALLAHASSEE TO 2.26 AT CAPE CANAVERAL. RAIN CHANCES TO REMAIN HIGH
RANGING FROM AROUND 50 PERCENT NORTH TO 30 PERCENT SOUTH. MODELS
BOTH LONGER TERM/GFS AND SHORT TERM MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR AND
LOCAL WRF/S INDICATE THAT THE LOW OFF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK AWAY FROM FLORIDA. THE WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
NORTH AND WINDS SPEEDS LOOK LIGHT ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZES.

.AVIATION...SCATTERED TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AND
MIST/FOG UNTIL 29/1400Z. WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT HOLD DOWN
THUNDERSTORMS PROBABILITY SO WILL KEEP VCTS FOR THE AFTERNOON.

.MARINE...BUOYS RECORDING SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS AT THE COAST
AND NEARSHORE...AND 15 TO 20 KNOTS AT BUOY 010 AT 12NM OFFSHORE. THE
OUTLIER WAS THE CMAN AT SAINT AUGUSTINE WHERE THE WIND WAS NORTHWEST
AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

WINDS FORECAST TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH DURING THE DAY AS
LOW PRESSURE OFF NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL FLORIDA TRACKS EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC. WINDS LOOK LIGHT ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR AN ONSHORE WIND
DOWN TO AT LEAST SEBASTIAN INLET IN THE AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS AFD

TODAY-TONIGHT...LOCAL WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE DRIVEN BY THE
DIFFUSE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY MEANDERING ACROSS THE NORTH/CENTRAL
PENINSULA. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A BROAD AND WEAK SURFACE
LOW OVER NE FLORIDA AND ADJACENT ATLANTIC WITH THE LOW LEVEL
BOUNDARY MARKED BY A SLIGHT WIND SHIFT SOMEWHERE IN NORTH FLORIDA/S
GEORGIA.

MODELS SHOW SURFACE LOW CONSOLIDATING OF TO OUR NE OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS (THOUGH WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DEEPENING)...WHICH WILL BE
ENOUGH TO DRIVE THE BOUNDARY A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH AND MORE
SOLIDLY BACK INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA. THIS OCCURS WHILE THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ALSO SHIFTS MORE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON.

THE NET RESULT IS THAT THE NARROWING DEEP MOISTURE BAND ASSOCIATED
WITH THESE FEATURES WILL BE PUSHED A LITTLE MORE SOUTHWARDS TODAY AS
THE PREVAILING LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW ALSO BECOMES MORE WEST-NORTHWEST.
MODELS SHOW SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE NOT QUITE AS HIGH AS THE PAST FEW
DAYS...THOUGH STILL NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL AT 30-50%. PINPOINTING THE
HIGHEST RAIN COVERAGE WILL BE SOMEWHAT COMPLEX GIVEN WHERE THE
BOUNDARY ENDS UP AND HOW MUCH DRY AIR MANAGES TO WORK ITS WAY IN.
UPSTREAM 29/00Z SOUNDING AT JAX HAD A PWAT OF ONLY 1.55"...MUCH
BELOW THE 2"+ AT TAMPA AND THE CAPE...BUT INDICATES DRIER AIR IS NOT
TOO FAR AWAY. ALSO WINDS LOOK LIGHT ENOUGH FOR A SEA BREEZE TO
DEVELOP NORTH OF THE CAPE IN THE AFTERNOON...WHICH IN COMBINATION
WITH DRIER AIR WILL LIKELY SHIFT RAIN AWAY FROM THE NORTHERN COASTAL
AREAS INTO THE I-4 CORRIDOR. ATMOSPHERE REMAINS WARM ALOFT SO WILL
CONTINUE TO WORD FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS.

THU-WEEKEND...PLAINS MID/UPPER ANTICYCLONE WILL SLOWLY RETROGRADE
WHILE TROUGH GRADUALLY DIGS IN OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.  WEAK CUT
OFF LOW EAST OF THE WATERS EARLY SHOULD SHEAR OUT BY SUNDAY AS THE
EASTERN TROUGH DIGS. THE MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH SUBSIDENCE/DRYING
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS LOW AND KEEP PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES 2
INCHES OR GREATER THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. ADDITIONALLY...MID
LEVEL TEMPS WILL COOL SLIGHTLY TO AROUND MINUS 7 CELSIUS. EXPECT
THIS WILL LEAD TO AN OVERALL GREATER COVERAGE OF STORMS WITH
INCREASED LIGHTNING ACTIVITY.

STEERING FLOW WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN...BUT WITH LOW LEVEL RIDGE
SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH PROVIDING SOUTHWEST FLOW...SUFFICIENT
FOCUSING FOR STORMS WILL EXIST OVER THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE
PENINSULA.

MOS/CONSENSUS POPS ARE ABOUT 50-60 PERCENT THROUGH THE PERIOD AND
SEE NO REASON TO DIFFER FROM THEM.

MON-WED...THE MODELS SHOW ATLANTIC RIDGE BUILDING BACK ACROSS
THE PENINSULA WED AS THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH LIFTS AND SOUTHERN
EXTENSION INTO FLORIDA SHIFTS WEST OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS
REPRESENTS A DELAYED TREND THOUGH...SO EXPECT MOISTURE TO REMAIN
HIGH AND POPS 50 PERCENT OR A LITTLE HIGHER SEEM WARRANTED...EXCEPT
POSSIBLY TRENDING LOWER WED...IF RIDGE DOES INDEED BUILD BACK INTO
CENTRAL FLORIDA.

&&

.AVIATION...
PATCHY MVFR AND IFR CIGS PRESENT AGAIN THIS MORNING THOUGH WITH
CONSIDERABLY LESS AREAL EXTENT THAN THE PAST FEW NIGHTS. WILL KEEP
THE MENTION OF SCT LOW CLOUDS IN SITES THAT HAVE BEEN REPORTING THE
STRATUS AND MONITOR FOR BKN-OVC CONDITIONS. OVERALL THINK ANY CIGS
WILL BE VERY SHORT LIVED.

THE BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN FLIRTING WITH THE REGION DROPS BACK
SOUTHWARDS THIS MORNING AND SITES FROM KMLB-KLAL NORTHWARDS WILL SEE
A NW WIND COMPONENT THROUGH MIDDAY. SPEEDS WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH FOR
SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT NORTH OF KTTS...POSSIBLY REACHING AS FAR
INLAND AS KDED IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.

SCT SHRA/ISOLD TSRA DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION AFTER 15Z. TEMPO
IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH ANY CONVECTION WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 35KTS.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY-TONIGHT...WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH PUSHES SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL
FLORIDA WITH N/NW WINDS DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE CAPE TOWARDS
DAYBREAK THIS MORNING WITH WINDS FURTHER SOUTH REMAINING W/SW. LOCAL
OBSERVATIONS SHOW SPEEDS HAVE WEAKENED TO 10-15KTS WITH MODELS
SHOWING SPEEDS AROUND THIS LEVEL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY SO
WILL NOT EXTEND CAUTIONARY STATEMENT. NORTH OF THE CAPE...FLOW WILL
BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO ALLOW SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP WITH WINDS BECOMING
VARIABLE TO EAST-NORTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON. W/SW FLOW RE-
ESTABLISHES OVER ALL THE WATERS OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL BE AROUND 2FT
NEARSHORE 2-3 FEET OFFSHORE.

COVERAGE OF STORMS NOT QUITE AS HIGH AS PREVIOUS FEW DAYS WITH STORM
MOTION BECOMING MORE TO THE SOUTH. HOWEVER STILL COULD SEE A FEW
STORMS PUSHING OFF THE COAST SOUTH OF THE CAPE.

THU-FRI...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL SUPPORT SOUTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS NEAR SHORE AND 10 TO 15 KNOTS IN THE OUTER WATERS.
MID LEVEL WIND FLOW IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN BUT WINDS IN THE LOWER
PORTION OF THE ATMOSPHERE OUT OF THE WEST LOOK SUFFICIENT TO PUSH
STORMS OFF THE PENINSULA INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS. COVERAGE LOOKS
RATHER HIGH AND STORMS SHOULD START TO PRODUCE MORE FREQUENT
LIGHTNING STRIKES.

WEEKEND...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE MOIST SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW REGIME.
BOATERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE VIGILANT FOR MARINE STORMS...
ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  92  75  91  75 /  50  20  60  30
MCO  94  76  91  75 /  50  20  60  30
MLB  92  74  90  74 /  50  20  60  30
VRB  91  73  91  74 /  50  20  60  40
LEE  92  77  90  77 /  50  20  60  30
SFB  92  77  91  76 /  50  20  60  30
ORL  94  77  91  76 /  50  20  60  30
FPR  91  74  91  74 /  40  20  60  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

IMPACT WX...PENDERGRAST
FORECASTS...WIMMER




000
FXUS62 KMLB 290746
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
346 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY-TONIGHT...LOCAL WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE DRIVEN BY
THE DIFFUSE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY MEANDERING ACROSS THE NORTH/CENTRAL
PENINSULA. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A BROAD AND WEAK SURFACE
LOW OVER NE FLORIDA AND ADJACENT ATLANTIC WITH THE LOW LEVEL
BOUNDARY MARKED BY A SLIGHT WIND SHIFT SOMEWHERE IN NORTH
FLORIDA/S GEORGIA.

MODELS SHOW SURFACE LOW CONSOLIDATING OF TO OUR NE OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS (THOUGH WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DEEPENING)...WHICH WILL BE
ENOUGH TO DRIVE THE BOUNDARY A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH AND MORE
SOLIDLY BACK INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA. THIS OCCURS WHILE THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ALSO SHIFTS MORE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON.

THE NET RESULT IS THAT THE NARROWING DEEP MOISTURE BAND ASSOCIATED
WITH THESE FEATURES WILL BE PUSHED A LITTLE MORE SOUTHWARDS TODAY AS
THE PREVAILING LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW ALSO BECOMES MORE WEST-NORTHWEST.
MODELS SHOW SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE NOT QUITE AS HIGH AS THE PAST FEW
DAYS...THOUGH STILL NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL AT 30-50%. PINPOINTING THE
HIGHEST RAIN COVERAGE WILL BE SOMEWHAT COMPLEX GIVEN WHERE THE
BOUNDARY ENDS UP AND HOW MUCH DRY AIR MANAGES TO WORK ITS WAY IN.
UPSTREAM 29/00Z SOUNDING AT JAX HAD A PWAT OF ONLY 1.55"...MUCH
BELOW THE 2"+ AT TAMPA AND THE CAPE...BUT INDICATES DRIER AIR IS NOT
TOO FAR AWAY. ALSO WINDS LOOK LIGHT ENOUGH FOR A SEA BREEZE TO
DEVELOP NORTH OF THE CAPE IN THE AFTERNOON...WHICH IN COMBINATION
WITH DRIER AIR WILL LIKELY SHIFT RAIN AWAY FROM THE NORTHERN COASTAL
AREAS INTO THE I-4 CORRIDOR. ATMOSPHERE REMAINS WARM ALOFT SO WILL
CONTINUE TO WORD FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS.

THU-WEEKEND...PLAINS MID/UPPER ANTICYCLONE WILL SLOWLY RETROGRADE
WHILE TROUGH GRADUALLY DIGS IN OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.  WEAK CUT
OFF LOW EAST OF THE WATERS EARLY SHOULD SHEAR OUT BY SUNDAY AS THE
EASTERN TROUGH DIGS. THE MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH SUBSIDENCE/DRYING
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS LOW AND KEEP PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES 2
INCHES OR GREATER THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. ADDITIONALLY...MID
LEVEL TEMPS WILL COOL SLIGHTLY TO AROUND MINUS 7 CELSIUS. EXPECT
THIS WILL LEAD TO AN OVERALL GREATER COVERAGE OF STORMS WITH
INCREASED LIGHTNING ACTIVITY.

STEERING FLOW WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN...BUT WITH LOW LEVEL RIDGE
SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH PROVIDING SOUTHWEST FLOW...SUFFICIENT
FOCUSING FOR STORMS WILL EXIST OVER THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE
PENINSULA.

MOS/CONSENSUS POPS ARE ABOUT 50-60 PERCENT THROUGH THE PERIOD AND
SEE NO REASON TO DIFFER FROM THEM.

MON-WED...THE MODELS SHOW ATLANTIC RIDGE BUILDING BACK ACROSS
THE PENINSULA WED AS THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH LIFTS AND SOUTHERN
EXTENSION INTO FLORIDA SHIFTS WEST OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS
REPRESENTS A DELAYED TREND THOUGH...SO EXPECT MOISTURE TO REMAIN
HIGH AND POPS 50 PERCENT OR A LITTLE HIGHER SEEM WARRANTED...EXCEPT
POSSIBLY TRENDING LOWER WED...IF RIDGE DOES INDEED BUILD BACK INTO
CENTRAL FLORIDA.

&&

.AVIATION...
PATCHY MVFR AND IFR CIGS PRESENT AGAIN THIS MORNING THOUGH WITH
CONSIDERABLY LESS AREAL EXTENT THAN THE PAST FEW NIGHTS. WILL KEEP
THE MENTION OF SCT LOW CLOUDS IN SITES THAT HAVE BEEN REPORTING THE
STRATUS AND MONITOR FOR BKN-OVC CONDITIONS. OVERALL THINK ANY CIGS
WILL BE VERY SHORT LIVED.

THE BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN FLIRTING WITH THE REGION DROPS BACK
SOUTHWARDS THIS MORNING AND SITES FROM KMLB-KLAL NORTHWARDS WILL SEE
A NW WIND COMPONENT THROUGH MIDDAY. SPEEDS WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH FOR
SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT NORTH OF KTTS...POSSIBLY REACHING AS FAR
INLAND AS KDED IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.

SCT SHRA/ISOLD TSRA DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION AFTER 15Z. TEMPO
IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH ANY CONVECTION WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 35KTS.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY-TONIGHT...WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH PUSHES SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL
FLORIDA WITH N/NW WINDS DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE CAPE TOWARDS
DAYBREAK THIS MORNING WITH WINDS FURTHER SOUTH REMAINING W/SW. LOCAL
OBSERVATIONS SHOW SPEEDS HAVE WEAKENED TO 10-15KTS WITH MODELS
SHOWING SPEEDS AROUND THIS LEVEL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY SO
WILL NOT EXTEND CAUTIONARY STATEMENT. NORTH OF THE CAPE...FLOW WILL
BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO ALLOW SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP WITH WINDS BECOMING
VARIABLE TO EAST-NORTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON. W/SW FLOW RE-
ESTABLISHES OVER ALL THE WATERS OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL BE AROUND 2FT
NEARSHORE 2-3 FEET OFFSHORE.

COVERAGE OF STORMS NOT QUITE AS HIGH AS PREVIOUS FEW DAYS WITH STORM
MOTION BECOMING MORE TO THE SOUTH. HOWEVER STILL COULD SEE A FEW
STORMS PUSHING OFF THE COAST SOUTH OF THE CAPE.

THU-FRI...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL SUPPORT SOUTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS NEAR SHORE AND 10 TO 15 KNOTS IN THE OUTER WATERS.
MID LEVEL WIND FLOW IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN BUT WINDS IN THE LOWER
PORTION OF THE ATMOSPHERE OUT OF THE WEST LOOK SUFFICIENT TO PUSH
STORMS OFF THE PENINSULA INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS. COVERAGE LOOKS
RATHER HIGH AND STORMS SHOULD START TO PRODUCE MORE FREQUENT
LIGHTNING STRIKES.

WEEKEND...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE MOIST SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW REGIME.
BOATERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE VIGILANT FOR MARINE STORMS...
ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  92  75  91  75 /  50  20  60  30
MCO  94  76  91  75 /  50  20  60  30
MLB  92  74  90  74 /  50  20  60  30
VRB  91  73  91  74 /  50  20  60  40
LEE  92  77  90  77 /  50  20  60  30
SFB  92  77  91  76 /  50  20  60  30
ORL  94  77  91  76 /  50  20  60  30
FPR  91  74  91  74 /  40  20  60  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOSES
LONG TERM....LASCODY




000
FXUS62 KMLB 290746
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
346 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY-TONIGHT...LOCAL WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE DRIVEN BY
THE DIFFUSE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY MEANDERING ACROSS THE NORTH/CENTRAL
PENINSULA. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A BROAD AND WEAK SURFACE
LOW OVER NE FLORIDA AND ADJACENT ATLANTIC WITH THE LOW LEVEL
BOUNDARY MARKED BY A SLIGHT WIND SHIFT SOMEWHERE IN NORTH
FLORIDA/S GEORGIA.

MODELS SHOW SURFACE LOW CONSOLIDATING OF TO OUR NE OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS (THOUGH WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DEEPENING)...WHICH WILL BE
ENOUGH TO DRIVE THE BOUNDARY A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH AND MORE
SOLIDLY BACK INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA. THIS OCCURS WHILE THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ALSO SHIFTS MORE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON.

THE NET RESULT IS THAT THE NARROWING DEEP MOISTURE BAND ASSOCIATED
WITH THESE FEATURES WILL BE PUSHED A LITTLE MORE SOUTHWARDS TODAY AS
THE PREVAILING LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW ALSO BECOMES MORE WEST-NORTHWEST.
MODELS SHOW SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE NOT QUITE AS HIGH AS THE PAST FEW
DAYS...THOUGH STILL NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL AT 30-50%. PINPOINTING THE
HIGHEST RAIN COVERAGE WILL BE SOMEWHAT COMPLEX GIVEN WHERE THE
BOUNDARY ENDS UP AND HOW MUCH DRY AIR MANAGES TO WORK ITS WAY IN.
UPSTREAM 29/00Z SOUNDING AT JAX HAD A PWAT OF ONLY 1.55"...MUCH
BELOW THE 2"+ AT TAMPA AND THE CAPE...BUT INDICATES DRIER AIR IS NOT
TOO FAR AWAY. ALSO WINDS LOOK LIGHT ENOUGH FOR A SEA BREEZE TO
DEVELOP NORTH OF THE CAPE IN THE AFTERNOON...WHICH IN COMBINATION
WITH DRIER AIR WILL LIKELY SHIFT RAIN AWAY FROM THE NORTHERN COASTAL
AREAS INTO THE I-4 CORRIDOR. ATMOSPHERE REMAINS WARM ALOFT SO WILL
CONTINUE TO WORD FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS.

THU-WEEKEND...PLAINS MID/UPPER ANTICYCLONE WILL SLOWLY RETROGRADE
WHILE TROUGH GRADUALLY DIGS IN OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.  WEAK CUT
OFF LOW EAST OF THE WATERS EARLY SHOULD SHEAR OUT BY SUNDAY AS THE
EASTERN TROUGH DIGS. THE MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH SUBSIDENCE/DRYING
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS LOW AND KEEP PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES 2
INCHES OR GREATER THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. ADDITIONALLY...MID
LEVEL TEMPS WILL COOL SLIGHTLY TO AROUND MINUS 7 CELSIUS. EXPECT
THIS WILL LEAD TO AN OVERALL GREATER COVERAGE OF STORMS WITH
INCREASED LIGHTNING ACTIVITY.

STEERING FLOW WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN...BUT WITH LOW LEVEL RIDGE
SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH PROVIDING SOUTHWEST FLOW...SUFFICIENT
FOCUSING FOR STORMS WILL EXIST OVER THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE
PENINSULA.

MOS/CONSENSUS POPS ARE ABOUT 50-60 PERCENT THROUGH THE PERIOD AND
SEE NO REASON TO DIFFER FROM THEM.

MON-WED...THE MODELS SHOW ATLANTIC RIDGE BUILDING BACK ACROSS
THE PENINSULA WED AS THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH LIFTS AND SOUTHERN
EXTENSION INTO FLORIDA SHIFTS WEST OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS
REPRESENTS A DELAYED TREND THOUGH...SO EXPECT MOISTURE TO REMAIN
HIGH AND POPS 50 PERCENT OR A LITTLE HIGHER SEEM WARRANTED...EXCEPT
POSSIBLY TRENDING LOWER WED...IF RIDGE DOES INDEED BUILD BACK INTO
CENTRAL FLORIDA.

&&

.AVIATION...
PATCHY MVFR AND IFR CIGS PRESENT AGAIN THIS MORNING THOUGH WITH
CONSIDERABLY LESS AREAL EXTENT THAN THE PAST FEW NIGHTS. WILL KEEP
THE MENTION OF SCT LOW CLOUDS IN SITES THAT HAVE BEEN REPORTING THE
STRATUS AND MONITOR FOR BKN-OVC CONDITIONS. OVERALL THINK ANY CIGS
WILL BE VERY SHORT LIVED.

THE BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN FLIRTING WITH THE REGION DROPS BACK
SOUTHWARDS THIS MORNING AND SITES FROM KMLB-KLAL NORTHWARDS WILL SEE
A NW WIND COMPONENT THROUGH MIDDAY. SPEEDS WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH FOR
SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT NORTH OF KTTS...POSSIBLY REACHING AS FAR
INLAND AS KDED IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.

SCT SHRA/ISOLD TSRA DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION AFTER 15Z. TEMPO
IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH ANY CONVECTION WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 35KTS.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY-TONIGHT...WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH PUSHES SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL
FLORIDA WITH N/NW WINDS DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE CAPE TOWARDS
DAYBREAK THIS MORNING WITH WINDS FURTHER SOUTH REMAINING W/SW. LOCAL
OBSERVATIONS SHOW SPEEDS HAVE WEAKENED TO 10-15KTS WITH MODELS
SHOWING SPEEDS AROUND THIS LEVEL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY SO
WILL NOT EXTEND CAUTIONARY STATEMENT. NORTH OF THE CAPE...FLOW WILL
BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO ALLOW SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP WITH WINDS BECOMING
VARIABLE TO EAST-NORTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON. W/SW FLOW RE-
ESTABLISHES OVER ALL THE WATERS OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL BE AROUND 2FT
NEARSHORE 2-3 FEET OFFSHORE.

COVERAGE OF STORMS NOT QUITE AS HIGH AS PREVIOUS FEW DAYS WITH STORM
MOTION BECOMING MORE TO THE SOUTH. HOWEVER STILL COULD SEE A FEW
STORMS PUSHING OFF THE COAST SOUTH OF THE CAPE.

THU-FRI...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL SUPPORT SOUTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS NEAR SHORE AND 10 TO 15 KNOTS IN THE OUTER WATERS.
MID LEVEL WIND FLOW IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN BUT WINDS IN THE LOWER
PORTION OF THE ATMOSPHERE OUT OF THE WEST LOOK SUFFICIENT TO PUSH
STORMS OFF THE PENINSULA INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS. COVERAGE LOOKS
RATHER HIGH AND STORMS SHOULD START TO PRODUCE MORE FREQUENT
LIGHTNING STRIKES.

WEEKEND...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE MOIST SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW REGIME.
BOATERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE VIGILANT FOR MARINE STORMS...
ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  92  75  91  75 /  50  20  60  30
MCO  94  76  91  75 /  50  20  60  30
MLB  92  74  90  74 /  50  20  60  30
VRB  91  73  91  74 /  50  20  60  40
LEE  92  77  90  77 /  50  20  60  30
SFB  92  77  91  76 /  50  20  60  30
ORL  94  77  91  76 /  50  20  60  30
FPR  91  74  91  74 /  40  20  60  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOSES
LONG TERM....LASCODY




000
FXUS62 KMLB 290746
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
346 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY-TONIGHT...LOCAL WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE DRIVEN BY
THE DIFFUSE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY MEANDERING ACROSS THE NORTH/CENTRAL
PENINSULA. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A BROAD AND WEAK SURFACE
LOW OVER NE FLORIDA AND ADJACENT ATLANTIC WITH THE LOW LEVEL
BOUNDARY MARKED BY A SLIGHT WIND SHIFT SOMEWHERE IN NORTH
FLORIDA/S GEORGIA.

MODELS SHOW SURFACE LOW CONSOLIDATING OF TO OUR NE OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS (THOUGH WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DEEPENING)...WHICH WILL BE
ENOUGH TO DRIVE THE BOUNDARY A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH AND MORE
SOLIDLY BACK INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA. THIS OCCURS WHILE THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ALSO SHIFTS MORE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON.

THE NET RESULT IS THAT THE NARROWING DEEP MOISTURE BAND ASSOCIATED
WITH THESE FEATURES WILL BE PUSHED A LITTLE MORE SOUTHWARDS TODAY AS
THE PREVAILING LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW ALSO BECOMES MORE WEST-NORTHWEST.
MODELS SHOW SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE NOT QUITE AS HIGH AS THE PAST FEW
DAYS...THOUGH STILL NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL AT 30-50%. PINPOINTING THE
HIGHEST RAIN COVERAGE WILL BE SOMEWHAT COMPLEX GIVEN WHERE THE
BOUNDARY ENDS UP AND HOW MUCH DRY AIR MANAGES TO WORK ITS WAY IN.
UPSTREAM 29/00Z SOUNDING AT JAX HAD A PWAT OF ONLY 1.55"...MUCH
BELOW THE 2"+ AT TAMPA AND THE CAPE...BUT INDICATES DRIER AIR IS NOT
TOO FAR AWAY. ALSO WINDS LOOK LIGHT ENOUGH FOR A SEA BREEZE TO
DEVELOP NORTH OF THE CAPE IN THE AFTERNOON...WHICH IN COMBINATION
WITH DRIER AIR WILL LIKELY SHIFT RAIN AWAY FROM THE NORTHERN COASTAL
AREAS INTO THE I-4 CORRIDOR. ATMOSPHERE REMAINS WARM ALOFT SO WILL
CONTINUE TO WORD FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS.

THU-WEEKEND...PLAINS MID/UPPER ANTICYCLONE WILL SLOWLY RETROGRADE
WHILE TROUGH GRADUALLY DIGS IN OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.  WEAK CUT
OFF LOW EAST OF THE WATERS EARLY SHOULD SHEAR OUT BY SUNDAY AS THE
EASTERN TROUGH DIGS. THE MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH SUBSIDENCE/DRYING
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS LOW AND KEEP PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES 2
INCHES OR GREATER THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. ADDITIONALLY...MID
LEVEL TEMPS WILL COOL SLIGHTLY TO AROUND MINUS 7 CELSIUS. EXPECT
THIS WILL LEAD TO AN OVERALL GREATER COVERAGE OF STORMS WITH
INCREASED LIGHTNING ACTIVITY.

STEERING FLOW WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN...BUT WITH LOW LEVEL RIDGE
SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH PROVIDING SOUTHWEST FLOW...SUFFICIENT
FOCUSING FOR STORMS WILL EXIST OVER THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE
PENINSULA.

MOS/CONSENSUS POPS ARE ABOUT 50-60 PERCENT THROUGH THE PERIOD AND
SEE NO REASON TO DIFFER FROM THEM.

MON-WED...THE MODELS SHOW ATLANTIC RIDGE BUILDING BACK ACROSS
THE PENINSULA WED AS THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH LIFTS AND SOUTHERN
EXTENSION INTO FLORIDA SHIFTS WEST OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS
REPRESENTS A DELAYED TREND THOUGH...SO EXPECT MOISTURE TO REMAIN
HIGH AND POPS 50 PERCENT OR A LITTLE HIGHER SEEM WARRANTED...EXCEPT
POSSIBLY TRENDING LOWER WED...IF RIDGE DOES INDEED BUILD BACK INTO
CENTRAL FLORIDA.

&&

.AVIATION...
PATCHY MVFR AND IFR CIGS PRESENT AGAIN THIS MORNING THOUGH WITH
CONSIDERABLY LESS AREAL EXTENT THAN THE PAST FEW NIGHTS. WILL KEEP
THE MENTION OF SCT LOW CLOUDS IN SITES THAT HAVE BEEN REPORTING THE
STRATUS AND MONITOR FOR BKN-OVC CONDITIONS. OVERALL THINK ANY CIGS
WILL BE VERY SHORT LIVED.

THE BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN FLIRTING WITH THE REGION DROPS BACK
SOUTHWARDS THIS MORNING AND SITES FROM KMLB-KLAL NORTHWARDS WILL SEE
A NW WIND COMPONENT THROUGH MIDDAY. SPEEDS WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH FOR
SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT NORTH OF KTTS...POSSIBLY REACHING AS FAR
INLAND AS KDED IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.

SCT SHRA/ISOLD TSRA DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION AFTER 15Z. TEMPO
IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH ANY CONVECTION WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 35KTS.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY-TONIGHT...WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH PUSHES SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL
FLORIDA WITH N/NW WINDS DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE CAPE TOWARDS
DAYBREAK THIS MORNING WITH WINDS FURTHER SOUTH REMAINING W/SW. LOCAL
OBSERVATIONS SHOW SPEEDS HAVE WEAKENED TO 10-15KTS WITH MODELS
SHOWING SPEEDS AROUND THIS LEVEL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY SO
WILL NOT EXTEND CAUTIONARY STATEMENT. NORTH OF THE CAPE...FLOW WILL
BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO ALLOW SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP WITH WINDS BECOMING
VARIABLE TO EAST-NORTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON. W/SW FLOW RE-
ESTABLISHES OVER ALL THE WATERS OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL BE AROUND 2FT
NEARSHORE 2-3 FEET OFFSHORE.

COVERAGE OF STORMS NOT QUITE AS HIGH AS PREVIOUS FEW DAYS WITH STORM
MOTION BECOMING MORE TO THE SOUTH. HOWEVER STILL COULD SEE A FEW
STORMS PUSHING OFF THE COAST SOUTH OF THE CAPE.

THU-FRI...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL SUPPORT SOUTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS NEAR SHORE AND 10 TO 15 KNOTS IN THE OUTER WATERS.
MID LEVEL WIND FLOW IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN BUT WINDS IN THE LOWER
PORTION OF THE ATMOSPHERE OUT OF THE WEST LOOK SUFFICIENT TO PUSH
STORMS OFF THE PENINSULA INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS. COVERAGE LOOKS
RATHER HIGH AND STORMS SHOULD START TO PRODUCE MORE FREQUENT
LIGHTNING STRIKES.

WEEKEND...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE MOIST SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW REGIME.
BOATERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE VIGILANT FOR MARINE STORMS...
ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  92  75  91  75 /  50  20  60  30
MCO  94  76  91  75 /  50  20  60  30
MLB  92  74  90  74 /  50  20  60  30
VRB  91  73  91  74 /  50  20  60  40
LEE  92  77  90  77 /  50  20  60  30
SFB  92  77  91  76 /  50  20  60  30
ORL  94  77  91  76 /  50  20  60  30
FPR  91  74  91  74 /  40  20  60  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOSES
LONG TERM....LASCODY





000
FXUS62 KMLB 290054
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
854 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT MIGRATED EASTWARD OVER THE
NRN FL PENINSULA LIES JUST OFFSHORE THE VOLUSIA/FLAGLER COAST
BASED ON LATEST OBS. FRONTAL TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW
REMAINS EXTENDED ROUGHLY FROM NRN VOLUSIA COUNTY TO CITRUS COUNTY
THIS EVENING. AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY
SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL DIMINISH INTO LATE EVENING. HOWEVER
HRRR/WRF BOTH INDICATE ADDITIONAL SHOWER DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE
IN BAND OF DEEPER MOISTURE ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT AS FRONTAL TROUGH SHIFTS SLOWLY SOUTHWARD. WILL
THEREFORE KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM ORLANDO TO CAPE AREA
SOUTHWARD ACROSS OSCEOLA AND SRN BREVARD COUNTIES PAST MIDNIGHT.

CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITH
FRONTAL TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION AND TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE MID
70S.

&&

.AVIATION...AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO THE
EVENING MAY GENERATE TEMPO MVFR CONDS...MAINLY SOUTH OF KDAB-KLEE.
MORE PREDOMINANT MVFR CIGS MAY BE POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT WITH
A WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER FOR NOW WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS VFR AND MONITOR FOR FUTURE TAF UPDATES.

A BAND OF DEEPER MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL LEAD TO GREATER
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SOUTH OF KMCO TOMORROW AS DRIER AIR
WORKS INTO NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY.

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH PUSHING SLOW SOUTHWARD INTO
CENTRAL FLORIDA TONIGHT WILL LEAD TO WEAKER W/NW WINDS OFF OF THE
VOLUSIA COAST WITH AN ELEVATED W/SW FLOW FARTHER SOUTH UP TO 15-20
KNOTS OFFSHORE OF BREVARD COUNTY. WILL THEREFORE ADD SMALL CRAFT
EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES FOR THESE WATERS OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL
RANGE FROM 2-3 FEET NEARSHORE UP TO 3-4 FEET OFFSHORE.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

WEITLICH/SHARP





000
FXUS62 KMLB 290054
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
854 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT MIGRATED EASTWARD OVER THE
NRN FL PENINSULA LIES JUST OFFSHORE THE VOLUSIA/FLAGLER COAST
BASED ON LATEST OBS. FRONTAL TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW
REMAINS EXTENDED ROUGHLY FROM NRN VOLUSIA COUNTY TO CITRUS COUNTY
THIS EVENING. AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY
SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL DIMINISH INTO LATE EVENING. HOWEVER
HRRR/WRF BOTH INDICATE ADDITIONAL SHOWER DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE
IN BAND OF DEEPER MOISTURE ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT AS FRONTAL TROUGH SHIFTS SLOWLY SOUTHWARD. WILL
THEREFORE KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM ORLANDO TO CAPE AREA
SOUTHWARD ACROSS OSCEOLA AND SRN BREVARD COUNTIES PAST MIDNIGHT.

CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITH
FRONTAL TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION AND TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE MID
70S.

&&

.AVIATION...AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO THE
EVENING MAY GENERATE TEMPO MVFR CONDS...MAINLY SOUTH OF KDAB-KLEE.
MORE PREDOMINANT MVFR CIGS MAY BE POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT WITH
A WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER FOR NOW WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS VFR AND MONITOR FOR FUTURE TAF UPDATES.

A BAND OF DEEPER MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL LEAD TO GREATER
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SOUTH OF KMCO TOMORROW AS DRIER AIR
WORKS INTO NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY.

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH PUSHING SLOW SOUTHWARD INTO
CENTRAL FLORIDA TONIGHT WILL LEAD TO WEAKER W/NW WINDS OFF OF THE
VOLUSIA COAST WITH AN ELEVATED W/SW FLOW FARTHER SOUTH UP TO 15-20
KNOTS OFFSHORE OF BREVARD COUNTY. WILL THEREFORE ADD SMALL CRAFT
EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES FOR THESE WATERS OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL
RANGE FROM 2-3 FEET NEARSHORE UP TO 3-4 FEET OFFSHORE.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

WEITLICH/SHARP




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