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000
FXUS62 KMLB 010846
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
346 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY/TONIGHT...
SURFACE HIGH PUSHING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND FARTHER OFFSHORE
INTO THE ATLANTIC TODAY WILL VEER WINDS TO THE SOUTHEAST. WINDS
WILL INCREASE UP TO 10 TO 15 MPH WITH BREEZY CONDS ANTICIPATED
ALONG THE TREASURE COAST. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW LIMITED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE RECOVERY TODAY AND MOS POPS ALONG THE COAST REMAIN
10 PERCENT OR LESS. MAY SEE A FEW SPRINKLES DEVELOP OVER THE
ATLANTIC TODAY AND MOVE ONSHORE FROM THE CAPE SOUTHWARD AS LATEST
RADAR IMAGERY IS ALREADY STARTING TO SHOW A FEW LIGHT RETURNS.
HOWEVER NOT EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATING RAINFALL SO WILL KEEP RAIN
CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST. SCATTERED MARINE STRATOCU WILL MOVE
ONSHORE AND INLAND THROUGH THE DAY WITH SKIES PARTLY SUNNY AND
HIGHS REACHING THE LOW TO MID 70S.

WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY INTO TONIGHT WITH MOISTURE INCREASING
AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. MAY SEE A FEW
SHOWERS NORTH OF ORLANDO LATE TONIGHT AND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.
OTHERWISE EXPECTING DRY CONDS WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT.
LOWS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.

MON-MON NIGHT...
A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD
AND OFFSHORE. THE MAIN ENERGY WILL BE WELL TO OUR NORTH...BUT A
BAND OF PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 1.5 INCHES IS PROGGED ALONG/AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. MOS POPS RANGE FROM AROUND 60 PERCENT IN THE NORTH TO
30 PERCENT IN THE SOUTH. THOUGH UPPER SUPPORT AND INSTABILITY ARE
LACKING...DO NOT WANT TO UNDERCUT MOS TOO MUCH AS A BAND OF LOW
TOPPED CONVECTION SHOULD BRING SOME RAINFALL TO MUCH OF THE NORTH.
DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING...HEATING INTO THE LOWER 80S MAY
OCCUR IN THE SOUTH...BUT FRONTAL CONVERGENCE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN
WITH TIME...SO THE LOWER POPS THERE LOOK OKAY.

INCREASED LOW LEVEL WINDS SHOULD SUPPORT A LAKE WIND ADVISORY.

A QUICK SHOT OF COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DROP TEMPS MON
NIGHT INTO THE 40S FOR THE INTERIOR AND DOWN TO THE SPACE COAST.
QUICK VEERING OF LOW LEVEL WINDS SHOULD KEEP THE TREASURE COAST IN
THE LOWER/MID 50S.

TUE-SAT...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES TUE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE
WED. AFTER A CHILLY START TUE MORNING...THE COOL AND DRY AIR MASS
WILL GRADUALLY BE MODIFIED BY ONSHORE WINDS THROUGH WED. CONSENSUS
POPS HAVE FALLEN BELOW 15 PERCENT ON WED SO WILL GO WITH A DRY
FORECAST TUE-WED.

THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM CONTINUES TO BE THE MODEL HANDLING OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND INTO THE GULF
OF MEXICO. THIS FEATURE WILL BE DAMPENING OUT AS IT ENCOUNTERS A
MORE CONFLUENT DOWNSTREAM ENVIRONMENT. EXPECT AT LEAST A WEAK LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE TO APPROACH FROM THE GULF ON THU.
THE ECMWF SHOWS A LITTLE MORE DEFINITION OF THE LEAD SHORTWAVE AND
IS NOW A LITTLE STRONGER THAN THE GFS WITH THE LOW. IN ANY
EVENT...INCREASING MOISTURE WILL RAISE POPS TO AT LEAST 50-60
PERCENT ON THU.

THE LOW SHOULD PASS TO OUR EAST BY FRI WITH BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. THE STRONGER ECMWF BRINGS MORE DRYING WHILE
THE GFS SHOWS WINDS SWINGING ONSHORE QUICKLY BEHIND THE SYSTEM.
WILL KEEP SMALL POPS ACROSS THE AREA ON FRI THEN CONFINE THEM TO
THE COAST ON SAT. THE QUICKER ONSHORE FLOW ALSO WOULD LIMIT EXTENT
OF COLD ADVECTION...BUT CONSENSUS VALUES SHOW FRI-SAT TO BE AT
LEAST A LITTLE COOLER THAN NORMAL PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS. LOW LEVEL ONSHORE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT SCT-BKN MARINE STRATOCU ONSHORE
WITH ANY CIGS AOA 4K FT. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS
AFT 14Z WITH HIGHER GUSTS AT TIMES ALONG THE COAST. MAY NEED TO ADD
A PERIOD OF LLWS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH DAYBREAK MONDAY ACROSS NRN
TERMINALS DUE TO RAPIDLY INCREASING LOW LEVEL S/SW WINDS UP TO
AROUND 35 KTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.


&&

.MARINE...
TODAY/TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OFFSHORE OF THE SE COAST
TODAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST AND APPROACHES THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT. MODERATE TO FRESH ONSHORE BREEZE PERSISTS
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS WINDS VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH SEAS UP
TO 6 FEET OVER THE GULF STREAM SOUTH OF THE CAPE.

WIND SPEEDS THEN CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS THEY BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY
INTO TONIGHT WITH BOATING CONDITIONS BECOMING HAZARDOUS OVER THE
OFFSHORE WATERS. WILL ISSUE A SCA STARTING OFFSHORE OF VOLUSIA
COUNTY LATE THIS EVENING...EXPANDING SOUTHWARD OVER THE OFFSHORE
WATERS LATE TONIGHT.

MON-THU...HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR IN THE OPEN
ATLANTIC AHEAD/BEHIND A COLD FRONT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...SO A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN THE OFFSHORE ZONES WILL CONTINUE.
CONDITIONS NEAR SHORE WILL ALSO BE MARGINALLY HAZARDOUS.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO EASE ON TUE BUT NORTH WINDS
NEAR 15 KNOTS IN THE MORNING MAY LINGER AND KEEP CONDITIONS POOR
IN THE GULF STREAM. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NORTH OF THE WATERS WILL
THEN GRADUALLY BUILD SEAWARD THROUGH WED WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
SUPPORTING ABOUT A 10 KNOT ONSHORE WIND.

A LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS FORECAST TO BE APPROACHING THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO ON THU. WE DO NOT HAVE A
SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN WINDS YET WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT AS THE
MODELS GET MORE HONED IN ON IT...EXPECT A PERIOD OF INCREASED
SOUTHERLY FLOW THU OR THU NIGHT...THEN INCREASED NORTHERLY FLOW
LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TODAY...BRISK SOUTHEAST TRANSPORT WINDS WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON
WITH HIGHER DISPERSION VALUES ANTICIPATED. ONSHORE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO MITIGATE ANY LOW RH CONCERNS.

MON-THU...BRISK SOUTHWEST/WEST LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL OCCUR ON MON
AND LEAD TO QUITE HIGH DISPERSION AGAIN. FRONTAL BAND MOISTURE
WILL MITIGATE LOW RH CONCERNS. BRIEF COOLING/DRYING WILL OCCUR TUE
BUT WINDS WILL BECOME ONSHORE AND DIMINISH WITH CONTINUED NO LOW
RH CONCERNS. MORE SUBSTANTIAL MOISTENING IS FORECAST FOR THU WITH
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  73  62  73  40 /  10  20  60  10
MCO  75  60  77  44 /   0  10  60  10
MLB  72  62  78  46 /  10  10  50  10
VRB  74  63  82  52 /  10  10  50  20
LEE  75  62  71  41 /   0  20  60  10
SFB  74  60  74  40 /   0  10  60  10
ORL  74  61  74  44 /   0  10  60  10
FPR  75  63  82  52 /  10  10  40  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN
     INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY
     LINE 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WEITLICH
LONG TERM....LASCODY





000
FXUS62 KMLB 010846
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
346 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY/TONIGHT...
SURFACE HIGH PUSHING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND FARTHER OFFSHORE
INTO THE ATLANTIC TODAY WILL VEER WINDS TO THE SOUTHEAST. WINDS
WILL INCREASE UP TO 10 TO 15 MPH WITH BREEZY CONDS ANTICIPATED
ALONG THE TREASURE COAST. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW LIMITED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE RECOVERY TODAY AND MOS POPS ALONG THE COAST REMAIN
10 PERCENT OR LESS. MAY SEE A FEW SPRINKLES DEVELOP OVER THE
ATLANTIC TODAY AND MOVE ONSHORE FROM THE CAPE SOUTHWARD AS LATEST
RADAR IMAGERY IS ALREADY STARTING TO SHOW A FEW LIGHT RETURNS.
HOWEVER NOT EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATING RAINFALL SO WILL KEEP RAIN
CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST. SCATTERED MARINE STRATOCU WILL MOVE
ONSHORE AND INLAND THROUGH THE DAY WITH SKIES PARTLY SUNNY AND
HIGHS REACHING THE LOW TO MID 70S.

WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY INTO TONIGHT WITH MOISTURE INCREASING
AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. MAY SEE A FEW
SHOWERS NORTH OF ORLANDO LATE TONIGHT AND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.
OTHERWISE EXPECTING DRY CONDS WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT.
LOWS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.

MON-MON NIGHT...
A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD
AND OFFSHORE. THE MAIN ENERGY WILL BE WELL TO OUR NORTH...BUT A
BAND OF PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 1.5 INCHES IS PROGGED ALONG/AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. MOS POPS RANGE FROM AROUND 60 PERCENT IN THE NORTH TO
30 PERCENT IN THE SOUTH. THOUGH UPPER SUPPORT AND INSTABILITY ARE
LACKING...DO NOT WANT TO UNDERCUT MOS TOO MUCH AS A BAND OF LOW
TOPPED CONVECTION SHOULD BRING SOME RAINFALL TO MUCH OF THE NORTH.
DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING...HEATING INTO THE LOWER 80S MAY
OCCUR IN THE SOUTH...BUT FRONTAL CONVERGENCE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN
WITH TIME...SO THE LOWER POPS THERE LOOK OKAY.

INCREASED LOW LEVEL WINDS SHOULD SUPPORT A LAKE WIND ADVISORY.

A QUICK SHOT OF COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DROP TEMPS MON
NIGHT INTO THE 40S FOR THE INTERIOR AND DOWN TO THE SPACE COAST.
QUICK VEERING OF LOW LEVEL WINDS SHOULD KEEP THE TREASURE COAST IN
THE LOWER/MID 50S.

TUE-SAT...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES TUE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE
WED. AFTER A CHILLY START TUE MORNING...THE COOL AND DRY AIR MASS
WILL GRADUALLY BE MODIFIED BY ONSHORE WINDS THROUGH WED. CONSENSUS
POPS HAVE FALLEN BELOW 15 PERCENT ON WED SO WILL GO WITH A DRY
FORECAST TUE-WED.

THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM CONTINUES TO BE THE MODEL HANDLING OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND INTO THE GULF
OF MEXICO. THIS FEATURE WILL BE DAMPENING OUT AS IT ENCOUNTERS A
MORE CONFLUENT DOWNSTREAM ENVIRONMENT. EXPECT AT LEAST A WEAK LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE TO APPROACH FROM THE GULF ON THU.
THE ECMWF SHOWS A LITTLE MORE DEFINITION OF THE LEAD SHORTWAVE AND
IS NOW A LITTLE STRONGER THAN THE GFS WITH THE LOW. IN ANY
EVENT...INCREASING MOISTURE WILL RAISE POPS TO AT LEAST 50-60
PERCENT ON THU.

THE LOW SHOULD PASS TO OUR EAST BY FRI WITH BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. THE STRONGER ECMWF BRINGS MORE DRYING WHILE
THE GFS SHOWS WINDS SWINGING ONSHORE QUICKLY BEHIND THE SYSTEM.
WILL KEEP SMALL POPS ACROSS THE AREA ON FRI THEN CONFINE THEM TO
THE COAST ON SAT. THE QUICKER ONSHORE FLOW ALSO WOULD LIMIT EXTENT
OF COLD ADVECTION...BUT CONSENSUS VALUES SHOW FRI-SAT TO BE AT
LEAST A LITTLE COOLER THAN NORMAL PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS. LOW LEVEL ONSHORE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT SCT-BKN MARINE STRATOCU ONSHORE
WITH ANY CIGS AOA 4K FT. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS
AFT 14Z WITH HIGHER GUSTS AT TIMES ALONG THE COAST. MAY NEED TO ADD
A PERIOD OF LLWS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH DAYBREAK MONDAY ACROSS NRN
TERMINALS DUE TO RAPIDLY INCREASING LOW LEVEL S/SW WINDS UP TO
AROUND 35 KTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.


&&

.MARINE...
TODAY/TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OFFSHORE OF THE SE COAST
TODAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST AND APPROACHES THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT. MODERATE TO FRESH ONSHORE BREEZE PERSISTS
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS WINDS VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH SEAS UP
TO 6 FEET OVER THE GULF STREAM SOUTH OF THE CAPE.

WIND SPEEDS THEN CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS THEY BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY
INTO TONIGHT WITH BOATING CONDITIONS BECOMING HAZARDOUS OVER THE
OFFSHORE WATERS. WILL ISSUE A SCA STARTING OFFSHORE OF VOLUSIA
COUNTY LATE THIS EVENING...EXPANDING SOUTHWARD OVER THE OFFSHORE
WATERS LATE TONIGHT.

MON-THU...HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR IN THE OPEN
ATLANTIC AHEAD/BEHIND A COLD FRONT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...SO A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN THE OFFSHORE ZONES WILL CONTINUE.
CONDITIONS NEAR SHORE WILL ALSO BE MARGINALLY HAZARDOUS.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO EASE ON TUE BUT NORTH WINDS
NEAR 15 KNOTS IN THE MORNING MAY LINGER AND KEEP CONDITIONS POOR
IN THE GULF STREAM. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NORTH OF THE WATERS WILL
THEN GRADUALLY BUILD SEAWARD THROUGH WED WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
SUPPORTING ABOUT A 10 KNOT ONSHORE WIND.

A LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS FORECAST TO BE APPROACHING THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO ON THU. WE DO NOT HAVE A
SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN WINDS YET WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT AS THE
MODELS GET MORE HONED IN ON IT...EXPECT A PERIOD OF INCREASED
SOUTHERLY FLOW THU OR THU NIGHT...THEN INCREASED NORTHERLY FLOW
LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TODAY...BRISK SOUTHEAST TRANSPORT WINDS WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON
WITH HIGHER DISPERSION VALUES ANTICIPATED. ONSHORE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO MITIGATE ANY LOW RH CONCERNS.

MON-THU...BRISK SOUTHWEST/WEST LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL OCCUR ON MON
AND LEAD TO QUITE HIGH DISPERSION AGAIN. FRONTAL BAND MOISTURE
WILL MITIGATE LOW RH CONCERNS. BRIEF COOLING/DRYING WILL OCCUR TUE
BUT WINDS WILL BECOME ONSHORE AND DIMINISH WITH CONTINUED NO LOW
RH CONCERNS. MORE SUBSTANTIAL MOISTENING IS FORECAST FOR THU WITH
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  73  62  73  40 /  10  20  60  10
MCO  75  60  77  44 /   0  10  60  10
MLB  72  62  78  46 /  10  10  50  10
VRB  74  63  82  52 /  10  10  50  20
LEE  75  62  71  41 /   0  20  60  10
SFB  74  60  74  40 /   0  10  60  10
ORL  74  61  74  44 /   0  10  60  10
FPR  75  63  82  52 /  10  10  40  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN
     INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY
     LINE 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WEITLICH
LONG TERM....LASCODY






000
FXUS62 KMLB 010242
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
930 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT-OVERNIGHT...ANTICYCLONIC/CLOCKWISE LOW LEVEL WINDFLOW AROUND
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER GEORGIA SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WILL BRING
MARINE STRATOCUMULUS ASHORE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. THE STRATOCU WILL
HAVE A HARD TIME MAKING INLAND PAST INTERSTATE 95 AS THE INTERIOR
LANDMASS COOLS OFF AND STABILIZES. IR SATELLITE SHOWING CIRRUS
STREAMING WEST TO EAST OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...GULF COAST STATES
AND FLORIDA. CURRENT TREND LOOKS TO BE HIGH CLOUDINESS ALL NIGHT.
OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK GOOD.

PREVIOUS ZONES DISCUSSION

TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...LOCAL WINDS HAVE INCREASED THEIR ONSHORE
COMPONENT DURING THE DAY AND TEMPS HAVE RECOVERED WELL INTO THE 60S
SINCE MORNING. WINDS TONIGHT WILL DIMINISH WITH DUSK WHILE REMAINING
SOMEWHAT HIGHER AT THE BEACHES AND COAST. LOWS WILL BE MILDER THAN
PREV NIGHTS AVERAGING IN THE U40S TO M50S.

A SURFACE HIGH WILL EXIT THE ATLC COAST OF THE CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT
AND INTO SUNDAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES OVER THE WRN ATLC BASIN LOCAL
WINDS WILL VEER SE EARLY SUNDAY. AFTERNOON MIXING WILL PRODUCE
BREEZY SE FLOW ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND. LIMITED AIRMASS
MOISTURE RECOVERY DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL PRECLUDE THE CHANCE OF
MENTIONABLE SHOWERS. SCT CLOUDINESS SHOULD BE THE ONLY FEATURE
PRESENT MAKING FOR A PLEASANT AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE
70S.

MON-MON NIGHT...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE EAST U.S. COAST ON
MON THEN LIFT NORTHEAST OUT INTO THE WESTERN ATLC. THIS WILL FORCE A
WEAKENING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH DOWN THE PENINSULA MON
AFTERNOON/EVENING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL INCREASE IN
UPWARDS OF 1.60 INCHES...THOUGH MUCH OF THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN NORTH. WILL KEEP HIGHER POPS (50 PERCENT)
NORTH ALONG I-4 AND TAPER BACK TO 20 PERCENT OVER MARTIN COUNTY. IT
WILL BE LATE IN THE DAY BEFORE PRECIPITATION AFFECTS THE TREASURE
COAST. ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH IN THE EVENING AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES
SOUTHEASTWARD.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE RELATIVELY TIGHT WITH GUSTY SW/W WINDS
ON THIS DAY. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY MAY BECOME NECESSARY. MAX TEMPS
SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 80S IN THE FAR
SOUTH OF OUR COVERAGE WARNING AREA. COOLER CONDITIONS FILTER DOWN
THE PENINSULA OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS NEAR 40 DEGREES TO L40S NORTH OF
THE I-4 CORRIDOR AS WELL AS INTO MUCH OF OSCEOLA COUNTY. M/U40S MOST
EVERYWHERE ELSE...EXCEPT 50S REMAINING POSSIBLE ALONG THE TREASURE
COAST AND SOUTHERN OKEECHOBEE COUNTY. NW WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED
IN THE EVENING BUT SLOWLY DECREASE LATE OVERNIGHT. WIND CHILLS COULD
BE COLD FOR A PERIOD OVERNIGHT.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...WINDS QUICKLY COME AROUND FROM OUT OF THE NORTHEAST
BEHIND THE MOST RECENT FRONTAL PASSAGE. WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY ON
THIS DAY WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TOWARDS CLIMO. SHOULD SEE L60S
ALONG THE VOLUSIA COAST...M60S NORTH OF I-4 AND U60S/L70S SOUTHWARD.
MILDER OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST WITH MAINLY 50S AREAWIDE...EXCEPT
A FEW U40S POSSIBLE ACROSS LAKE/N. VOLUSIA COUNTIES.

PREVIOUS EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION MODIFIED...

WED-NEXT SAT...FOCUS TURNS TO CUT OFF LOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO THAT
WILL EJECT EASTWARD ON WED-THU. THIS SYSTEM WILL DAMPEN OUT AS IT
ENTERS A MORE CONFLUENT DOWNSTREAM FLOW REGIME...BUT EXPECT ENOUGH
TROUGHING TO GENERATE SOME SORT OF GULF LOW THAT WILL MOVE TOWARDS
THE STATE. THE LATEST MODELS SHOW MORE OF A CHANCE FOR THIS ON THU.
SO AFTER A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WED IN INCREASING ONSHORE
FLOW...WILL GO WITH HIGHER CHANCES...AROUND 40 PERCENT WED
NIGHT...60 PERCENT FOR THU AND 40 PERCENT THU NIGHT.

THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF MODEL RUNS HAVE INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH SIMILAR
STRENGTH WITH THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER AS IT MOVES EAST OF THE REGION
LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI...WITH BOTH MODELS LINGERING MOISTURE INTO
FRI ALONG THE COAST. WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN SLIGHT COASTAL SHOWER
CHANCES FRI-SAT.

AFTER MILD TEMPS AT OR ABOVE NORMAL WED-THU...READINGS WILL DROP
OFF TO NORMAL OR A LITTLE BELOW FRI-SAT.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDS NEXT 24H WITH SCT STRATOCU BASES NEAR 4K FT MOVG ASHORE
FM THE ATLC WATERS. BULK OF CLOUDINESS WL BE AT THE CST AFT 01/01Z.

&&

.MARINE...

CURRENT-OVERNIGHT...THE BUOYS WERE RECORDING NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO
15 KNOTS AND 3 TO 5 FOOT SEAS OUT TO BUOY 009 AT 20NM EAST OF PORT
CANAVERAL AND 6 FEET AT BUOY 010 120NM EAST OF NEW SMYRNA BEACH. THE
TWO NOAA BUOYS WERE RECORDING A 5 FOOT SWELL COMPONENT TO THE SEAS.

WILL KEEP THE SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS EXERCISE CAUTION FOR SEAS IN THE
GULF STREAM TO CATCH THE 6 FOOT SEAS THAT SHOULD PROPAGATE IN FROM
THE EAST.

PREVIOUS MARINE DISCUSSION

TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...CAUTION STMT WL SUFFICE FOR THE GULF STREAM
AND OUTER WATERS AS WINDS SLOWLY CONTINUE A SHORT TERM WEAKENING
TREND. SEA HGHTS WL REMAIN AT LEAST 5-6 FT OVER THE OUTER WATERS
AND 3 TO 4 FT NEAR SHORE THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH AN INCREASE LATE
SUNDAY DUE TO TIGHTENING OF GRADIENT WINDS AHD OF NEXT FRONT.

MON-MON NIGHT...INCREASING MOISTURE AS A COLD FRONT SWINGS THRU
THE AREA MON AFTN/EVENING BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS SIGNIFICANTLY AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH MORNING
SW WINDS BECOMING MORE WESTERLY LATE IN THE DAY AND FINALLY NW/N
MON OVERNIGHT. WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO 25-28 KTS OVER THE
OPEN ATLC WITH FREQUENT/STRONGER GUSTS. WIND SPEEDS DO FINALLY
BEGIN TO DECREASE MON OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 6-9 FT WELL
OFFSHORE AND 4-6 FT NEAR SHORE AND POSSIBLY HIGHER IN THE GULF
STREAM.

TUE-THU...POST FRONTAL CONDITIONS ON TUE WILL SEE WINDS QUICKLY
BECOME NE THRU THE DAY WITH SPEEDS 10-12 KTS. WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER
MORE EASTERLY OVERNIGHT TUE WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL BE GETTING ORGANIZED IN THE WESTERN GULF
ON WED. THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK EASTWARD WED NIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS
THE PENINSULA THU-THU NIGHT. SHOWER CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE WED
NIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD ON THU. INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED AND
CURRENTLY DO NOT HAVE THUNDER MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST BUT THAT
COULD CHANGE WITH LATER ISSUANCES. WINDS WILL REMAIN EASTERLY ON WED
BECOMING MORE SE/S INTO WED NIGHT/THU. A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW MAY EXTEND ACROSS OUR NORTHERN WATERS FOR A
PERIOD AND SEPARATE THE SOUTHERLY WIND TO THE SOUTH AND NORTHERLY
WINDS NORTH OF IT. THE OVERALL STRENGTH/PLACEMENT OF THE LOW WILL
PLAY A ROLE IN DETERMINING WIND SPEEDS.

SEAS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE WITH INITIAL 6 FT SEAS OFFSHORE
DECREASING TO 5 FT LATE IN THE DAY AND 4-5 FT TUE OVERNIGHT. NEAR
SHORE TUE 3-5 FT SEAS WILL FALL 3 FT TUE OVERNIGHT. SEAS MAINLY 3-5
FT WED-THU.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

PREVIOUS FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION

MON-THU...INCREASING MOISTURE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL
LEAD TO EVENTUAL RAIN CHANCES WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT MONDAY
AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY. AT THE MOMENT LOW RH CONCERNS DO NOT LOOK
TO BE AN ISSUE. SW/W WINDS ON MON WILL BE BREEZY/GUSTY LEADING TO
HIGH DISPERSIONS. ONGOING/SMOLDERING FIRES COULD BE SENSITIVE TO
THESE WINDS ESPECIALLY IF RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM
ARE LOW. AT PRESENT SOME GREATER PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL EXIST
ON THU.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  50  74  62  75 /   0  10  20  50
MCO  51  76  62  78 /   0  10  10  50
MLB  57  74  61  82 /  10  10  10  50
VRB  55  75  63  83 /  10  10  10  40
LEE  51  74  64  70 /   0   0  20  50
SFB  50  75  61  72 /   0  10  10  50
ORL  53  74  62  73 /   0  10  10  50
FPR  55  76  63  83 /  10  10  10  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

VOLKMER/WIMMER






000
FXUS62 KMLB 010242
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
930 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT-OVERNIGHT...ANTICYCLONIC/CLOCKWISE LOW LEVEL WINDFLOW AROUND
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER GEORGIA SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WILL BRING
MARINE STRATOCUMULUS ASHORE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. THE STRATOCU WILL
HAVE A HARD TIME MAKING INLAND PAST INTERSTATE 95 AS THE INTERIOR
LANDMASS COOLS OFF AND STABILIZES. IR SATELLITE SHOWING CIRRUS
STREAMING WEST TO EAST OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...GULF COAST STATES
AND FLORIDA. CURRENT TREND LOOKS TO BE HIGH CLOUDINESS ALL NIGHT.
OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK GOOD.

PREVIOUS ZONES DISCUSSION

TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...LOCAL WINDS HAVE INCREASED THEIR ONSHORE
COMPONENT DURING THE DAY AND TEMPS HAVE RECOVERED WELL INTO THE 60S
SINCE MORNING. WINDS TONIGHT WILL DIMINISH WITH DUSK WHILE REMAINING
SOMEWHAT HIGHER AT THE BEACHES AND COAST. LOWS WILL BE MILDER THAN
PREV NIGHTS AVERAGING IN THE U40S TO M50S.

A SURFACE HIGH WILL EXIT THE ATLC COAST OF THE CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT
AND INTO SUNDAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES OVER THE WRN ATLC BASIN LOCAL
WINDS WILL VEER SE EARLY SUNDAY. AFTERNOON MIXING WILL PRODUCE
BREEZY SE FLOW ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND. LIMITED AIRMASS
MOISTURE RECOVERY DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL PRECLUDE THE CHANCE OF
MENTIONABLE SHOWERS. SCT CLOUDINESS SHOULD BE THE ONLY FEATURE
PRESENT MAKING FOR A PLEASANT AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE
70S.

MON-MON NIGHT...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE EAST U.S. COAST ON
MON THEN LIFT NORTHEAST OUT INTO THE WESTERN ATLC. THIS WILL FORCE A
WEAKENING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH DOWN THE PENINSULA MON
AFTERNOON/EVENING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL INCREASE IN
UPWARDS OF 1.60 INCHES...THOUGH MUCH OF THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN NORTH. WILL KEEP HIGHER POPS (50 PERCENT)
NORTH ALONG I-4 AND TAPER BACK TO 20 PERCENT OVER MARTIN COUNTY. IT
WILL BE LATE IN THE DAY BEFORE PRECIPITATION AFFECTS THE TREASURE
COAST. ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH IN THE EVENING AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES
SOUTHEASTWARD.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE RELATIVELY TIGHT WITH GUSTY SW/W WINDS
ON THIS DAY. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY MAY BECOME NECESSARY. MAX TEMPS
SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 80S IN THE FAR
SOUTH OF OUR COVERAGE WARNING AREA. COOLER CONDITIONS FILTER DOWN
THE PENINSULA OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS NEAR 40 DEGREES TO L40S NORTH OF
THE I-4 CORRIDOR AS WELL AS INTO MUCH OF OSCEOLA COUNTY. M/U40S MOST
EVERYWHERE ELSE...EXCEPT 50S REMAINING POSSIBLE ALONG THE TREASURE
COAST AND SOUTHERN OKEECHOBEE COUNTY. NW WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED
IN THE EVENING BUT SLOWLY DECREASE LATE OVERNIGHT. WIND CHILLS COULD
BE COLD FOR A PERIOD OVERNIGHT.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...WINDS QUICKLY COME AROUND FROM OUT OF THE NORTHEAST
BEHIND THE MOST RECENT FRONTAL PASSAGE. WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY ON
THIS DAY WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TOWARDS CLIMO. SHOULD SEE L60S
ALONG THE VOLUSIA COAST...M60S NORTH OF I-4 AND U60S/L70S SOUTHWARD.
MILDER OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST WITH MAINLY 50S AREAWIDE...EXCEPT
A FEW U40S POSSIBLE ACROSS LAKE/N. VOLUSIA COUNTIES.

PREVIOUS EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION MODIFIED...

WED-NEXT SAT...FOCUS TURNS TO CUT OFF LOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO THAT
WILL EJECT EASTWARD ON WED-THU. THIS SYSTEM WILL DAMPEN OUT AS IT
ENTERS A MORE CONFLUENT DOWNSTREAM FLOW REGIME...BUT EXPECT ENOUGH
TROUGHING TO GENERATE SOME SORT OF GULF LOW THAT WILL MOVE TOWARDS
THE STATE. THE LATEST MODELS SHOW MORE OF A CHANCE FOR THIS ON THU.
SO AFTER A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WED IN INCREASING ONSHORE
FLOW...WILL GO WITH HIGHER CHANCES...AROUND 40 PERCENT WED
NIGHT...60 PERCENT FOR THU AND 40 PERCENT THU NIGHT.

THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF MODEL RUNS HAVE INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH SIMILAR
STRENGTH WITH THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER AS IT MOVES EAST OF THE REGION
LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI...WITH BOTH MODELS LINGERING MOISTURE INTO
FRI ALONG THE COAST. WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN SLIGHT COASTAL SHOWER
CHANCES FRI-SAT.

AFTER MILD TEMPS AT OR ABOVE NORMAL WED-THU...READINGS WILL DROP
OFF TO NORMAL OR A LITTLE BELOW FRI-SAT.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDS NEXT 24H WITH SCT STRATOCU BASES NEAR 4K FT MOVG ASHORE
FM THE ATLC WATERS. BULK OF CLOUDINESS WL BE AT THE CST AFT 01/01Z.

&&

.MARINE...

CURRENT-OVERNIGHT...THE BUOYS WERE RECORDING NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO
15 KNOTS AND 3 TO 5 FOOT SEAS OUT TO BUOY 009 AT 20NM EAST OF PORT
CANAVERAL AND 6 FEET AT BUOY 010 120NM EAST OF NEW SMYRNA BEACH. THE
TWO NOAA BUOYS WERE RECORDING A 5 FOOT SWELL COMPONENT TO THE SEAS.

WILL KEEP THE SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS EXERCISE CAUTION FOR SEAS IN THE
GULF STREAM TO CATCH THE 6 FOOT SEAS THAT SHOULD PROPAGATE IN FROM
THE EAST.

PREVIOUS MARINE DISCUSSION

TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...CAUTION STMT WL SUFFICE FOR THE GULF STREAM
AND OUTER WATERS AS WINDS SLOWLY CONTINUE A SHORT TERM WEAKENING
TREND. SEA HGHTS WL REMAIN AT LEAST 5-6 FT OVER THE OUTER WATERS
AND 3 TO 4 FT NEAR SHORE THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH AN INCREASE LATE
SUNDAY DUE TO TIGHTENING OF GRADIENT WINDS AHD OF NEXT FRONT.

MON-MON NIGHT...INCREASING MOISTURE AS A COLD FRONT SWINGS THRU
THE AREA MON AFTN/EVENING BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS SIGNIFICANTLY AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH MORNING
SW WINDS BECOMING MORE WESTERLY LATE IN THE DAY AND FINALLY NW/N
MON OVERNIGHT. WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO 25-28 KTS OVER THE
OPEN ATLC WITH FREQUENT/STRONGER GUSTS. WIND SPEEDS DO FINALLY
BEGIN TO DECREASE MON OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 6-9 FT WELL
OFFSHORE AND 4-6 FT NEAR SHORE AND POSSIBLY HIGHER IN THE GULF
STREAM.

TUE-THU...POST FRONTAL CONDITIONS ON TUE WILL SEE WINDS QUICKLY
BECOME NE THRU THE DAY WITH SPEEDS 10-12 KTS. WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER
MORE EASTERLY OVERNIGHT TUE WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL BE GETTING ORGANIZED IN THE WESTERN GULF
ON WED. THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK EASTWARD WED NIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS
THE PENINSULA THU-THU NIGHT. SHOWER CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE WED
NIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD ON THU. INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED AND
CURRENTLY DO NOT HAVE THUNDER MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST BUT THAT
COULD CHANGE WITH LATER ISSUANCES. WINDS WILL REMAIN EASTERLY ON WED
BECOMING MORE SE/S INTO WED NIGHT/THU. A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW MAY EXTEND ACROSS OUR NORTHERN WATERS FOR A
PERIOD AND SEPARATE THE SOUTHERLY WIND TO THE SOUTH AND NORTHERLY
WINDS NORTH OF IT. THE OVERALL STRENGTH/PLACEMENT OF THE LOW WILL
PLAY A ROLE IN DETERMINING WIND SPEEDS.

SEAS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE WITH INITIAL 6 FT SEAS OFFSHORE
DECREASING TO 5 FT LATE IN THE DAY AND 4-5 FT TUE OVERNIGHT. NEAR
SHORE TUE 3-5 FT SEAS WILL FALL 3 FT TUE OVERNIGHT. SEAS MAINLY 3-5
FT WED-THU.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

PREVIOUS FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION

MON-THU...INCREASING MOISTURE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL
LEAD TO EVENTUAL RAIN CHANCES WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT MONDAY
AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY. AT THE MOMENT LOW RH CONCERNS DO NOT LOOK
TO BE AN ISSUE. SW/W WINDS ON MON WILL BE BREEZY/GUSTY LEADING TO
HIGH DISPERSIONS. ONGOING/SMOLDERING FIRES COULD BE SENSITIVE TO
THESE WINDS ESPECIALLY IF RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM
ARE LOW. AT PRESENT SOME GREATER PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL EXIST
ON THU.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  50  74  62  75 /   0  10  20  50
MCO  51  76  62  78 /   0  10  10  50
MLB  57  74  61  82 /  10  10  10  50
VRB  55  75  63  83 /  10  10  10  40
LEE  51  74  64  70 /   0   0  20  50
SFB  50  75  61  72 /   0  10  10  50
ORL  53  74  62  73 /   0  10  10  50
FPR  55  76  63  83 /  10  10  10  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

VOLKMER/WIMMER






000
FXUS62 KMLB 010242
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
930 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT-OVERNIGHT...ANTICYCLONIC/CLOCKWISE LOW LEVEL WINDFLOW AROUND
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER GEORGIA SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WILL BRING
MARINE STRATOCUMULUS ASHORE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. THE STRATOCU WILL
HAVE A HARD TIME MAKING INLAND PAST INTERSTATE 95 AS THE INTERIOR
LANDMASS COOLS OFF AND STABILIZES. IR SATELLITE SHOWING CIRRUS
STREAMING WEST TO EAST OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...GULF COAST STATES
AND FLORIDA. CURRENT TREND LOOKS TO BE HIGH CLOUDINESS ALL NIGHT.
OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK GOOD.

PREVIOUS ZONES DISCUSSION

TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...LOCAL WINDS HAVE INCREASED THEIR ONSHORE
COMPONENT DURING THE DAY AND TEMPS HAVE RECOVERED WELL INTO THE 60S
SINCE MORNING. WINDS TONIGHT WILL DIMINISH WITH DUSK WHILE REMAINING
SOMEWHAT HIGHER AT THE BEACHES AND COAST. LOWS WILL BE MILDER THAN
PREV NIGHTS AVERAGING IN THE U40S TO M50S.

A SURFACE HIGH WILL EXIT THE ATLC COAST OF THE CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT
AND INTO SUNDAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES OVER THE WRN ATLC BASIN LOCAL
WINDS WILL VEER SE EARLY SUNDAY. AFTERNOON MIXING WILL PRODUCE
BREEZY SE FLOW ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND. LIMITED AIRMASS
MOISTURE RECOVERY DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL PRECLUDE THE CHANCE OF
MENTIONABLE SHOWERS. SCT CLOUDINESS SHOULD BE THE ONLY FEATURE
PRESENT MAKING FOR A PLEASANT AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE
70S.

MON-MON NIGHT...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE EAST U.S. COAST ON
MON THEN LIFT NORTHEAST OUT INTO THE WESTERN ATLC. THIS WILL FORCE A
WEAKENING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH DOWN THE PENINSULA MON
AFTERNOON/EVENING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL INCREASE IN
UPWARDS OF 1.60 INCHES...THOUGH MUCH OF THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN NORTH. WILL KEEP HIGHER POPS (50 PERCENT)
NORTH ALONG I-4 AND TAPER BACK TO 20 PERCENT OVER MARTIN COUNTY. IT
WILL BE LATE IN THE DAY BEFORE PRECIPITATION AFFECTS THE TREASURE
COAST. ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH IN THE EVENING AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES
SOUTHEASTWARD.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE RELATIVELY TIGHT WITH GUSTY SW/W WINDS
ON THIS DAY. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY MAY BECOME NECESSARY. MAX TEMPS
SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 80S IN THE FAR
SOUTH OF OUR COVERAGE WARNING AREA. COOLER CONDITIONS FILTER DOWN
THE PENINSULA OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS NEAR 40 DEGREES TO L40S NORTH OF
THE I-4 CORRIDOR AS WELL AS INTO MUCH OF OSCEOLA COUNTY. M/U40S MOST
EVERYWHERE ELSE...EXCEPT 50S REMAINING POSSIBLE ALONG THE TREASURE
COAST AND SOUTHERN OKEECHOBEE COUNTY. NW WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED
IN THE EVENING BUT SLOWLY DECREASE LATE OVERNIGHT. WIND CHILLS COULD
BE COLD FOR A PERIOD OVERNIGHT.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...WINDS QUICKLY COME AROUND FROM OUT OF THE NORTHEAST
BEHIND THE MOST RECENT FRONTAL PASSAGE. WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY ON
THIS DAY WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TOWARDS CLIMO. SHOULD SEE L60S
ALONG THE VOLUSIA COAST...M60S NORTH OF I-4 AND U60S/L70S SOUTHWARD.
MILDER OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST WITH MAINLY 50S AREAWIDE...EXCEPT
A FEW U40S POSSIBLE ACROSS LAKE/N. VOLUSIA COUNTIES.

PREVIOUS EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION MODIFIED...

WED-NEXT SAT...FOCUS TURNS TO CUT OFF LOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO THAT
WILL EJECT EASTWARD ON WED-THU. THIS SYSTEM WILL DAMPEN OUT AS IT
ENTERS A MORE CONFLUENT DOWNSTREAM FLOW REGIME...BUT EXPECT ENOUGH
TROUGHING TO GENERATE SOME SORT OF GULF LOW THAT WILL MOVE TOWARDS
THE STATE. THE LATEST MODELS SHOW MORE OF A CHANCE FOR THIS ON THU.
SO AFTER A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WED IN INCREASING ONSHORE
FLOW...WILL GO WITH HIGHER CHANCES...AROUND 40 PERCENT WED
NIGHT...60 PERCENT FOR THU AND 40 PERCENT THU NIGHT.

THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF MODEL RUNS HAVE INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH SIMILAR
STRENGTH WITH THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER AS IT MOVES EAST OF THE REGION
LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI...WITH BOTH MODELS LINGERING MOISTURE INTO
FRI ALONG THE COAST. WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN SLIGHT COASTAL SHOWER
CHANCES FRI-SAT.

AFTER MILD TEMPS AT OR ABOVE NORMAL WED-THU...READINGS WILL DROP
OFF TO NORMAL OR A LITTLE BELOW FRI-SAT.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDS NEXT 24H WITH SCT STRATOCU BASES NEAR 4K FT MOVG ASHORE
FM THE ATLC WATERS. BULK OF CLOUDINESS WL BE AT THE CST AFT 01/01Z.

&&

.MARINE...

CURRENT-OVERNIGHT...THE BUOYS WERE RECORDING NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO
15 KNOTS AND 3 TO 5 FOOT SEAS OUT TO BUOY 009 AT 20NM EAST OF PORT
CANAVERAL AND 6 FEET AT BUOY 010 120NM EAST OF NEW SMYRNA BEACH. THE
TWO NOAA BUOYS WERE RECORDING A 5 FOOT SWELL COMPONENT TO THE SEAS.

WILL KEEP THE SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS EXERCISE CAUTION FOR SEAS IN THE
GULF STREAM TO CATCH THE 6 FOOT SEAS THAT SHOULD PROPAGATE IN FROM
THE EAST.

PREVIOUS MARINE DISCUSSION

TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...CAUTION STMT WL SUFFICE FOR THE GULF STREAM
AND OUTER WATERS AS WINDS SLOWLY CONTINUE A SHORT TERM WEAKENING
TREND. SEA HGHTS WL REMAIN AT LEAST 5-6 FT OVER THE OUTER WATERS
AND 3 TO 4 FT NEAR SHORE THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH AN INCREASE LATE
SUNDAY DUE TO TIGHTENING OF GRADIENT WINDS AHD OF NEXT FRONT.

MON-MON NIGHT...INCREASING MOISTURE AS A COLD FRONT SWINGS THRU
THE AREA MON AFTN/EVENING BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS SIGNIFICANTLY AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH MORNING
SW WINDS BECOMING MORE WESTERLY LATE IN THE DAY AND FINALLY NW/N
MON OVERNIGHT. WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO 25-28 KTS OVER THE
OPEN ATLC WITH FREQUENT/STRONGER GUSTS. WIND SPEEDS DO FINALLY
BEGIN TO DECREASE MON OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 6-9 FT WELL
OFFSHORE AND 4-6 FT NEAR SHORE AND POSSIBLY HIGHER IN THE GULF
STREAM.

TUE-THU...POST FRONTAL CONDITIONS ON TUE WILL SEE WINDS QUICKLY
BECOME NE THRU THE DAY WITH SPEEDS 10-12 KTS. WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER
MORE EASTERLY OVERNIGHT TUE WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL BE GETTING ORGANIZED IN THE WESTERN GULF
ON WED. THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK EASTWARD WED NIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS
THE PENINSULA THU-THU NIGHT. SHOWER CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE WED
NIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD ON THU. INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED AND
CURRENTLY DO NOT HAVE THUNDER MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST BUT THAT
COULD CHANGE WITH LATER ISSUANCES. WINDS WILL REMAIN EASTERLY ON WED
BECOMING MORE SE/S INTO WED NIGHT/THU. A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW MAY EXTEND ACROSS OUR NORTHERN WATERS FOR A
PERIOD AND SEPARATE THE SOUTHERLY WIND TO THE SOUTH AND NORTHERLY
WINDS NORTH OF IT. THE OVERALL STRENGTH/PLACEMENT OF THE LOW WILL
PLAY A ROLE IN DETERMINING WIND SPEEDS.

SEAS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE WITH INITIAL 6 FT SEAS OFFSHORE
DECREASING TO 5 FT LATE IN THE DAY AND 4-5 FT TUE OVERNIGHT. NEAR
SHORE TUE 3-5 FT SEAS WILL FALL 3 FT TUE OVERNIGHT. SEAS MAINLY 3-5
FT WED-THU.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

PREVIOUS FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION

MON-THU...INCREASING MOISTURE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL
LEAD TO EVENTUAL RAIN CHANCES WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT MONDAY
AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY. AT THE MOMENT LOW RH CONCERNS DO NOT LOOK
TO BE AN ISSUE. SW/W WINDS ON MON WILL BE BREEZY/GUSTY LEADING TO
HIGH DISPERSIONS. ONGOING/SMOLDERING FIRES COULD BE SENSITIVE TO
THESE WINDS ESPECIALLY IF RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM
ARE LOW. AT PRESENT SOME GREATER PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL EXIST
ON THU.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  50  74  62  75 /   0  10  20  50
MCO  51  76  62  78 /   0  10  10  50
MLB  57  74  61  82 /  10  10  10  50
VRB  55  75  63  83 /  10  10  10  40
LEE  51  74  64  70 /   0   0  20  50
SFB  50  75  61  72 /   0  10  10  50
ORL  53  74  62  73 /   0  10  10  50
FPR  55  76  63  83 /  10  10  10  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

VOLKMER/WIMMER







000
FXUS62 KMLB 010242
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
930 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT-OVERNIGHT...ANTICYCLONIC/CLOCKWISE LOW LEVEL WINDFLOW AROUND
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER GEORGIA SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WILL BRING
MARINE STRATOCUMULUS ASHORE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. THE STRATOCU WILL
HAVE A HARD TIME MAKING INLAND PAST INTERSTATE 95 AS THE INTERIOR
LANDMASS COOLS OFF AND STABILIZES. IR SATELLITE SHOWING CIRRUS
STREAMING WEST TO EAST OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...GULF COAST STATES
AND FLORIDA. CURRENT TREND LOOKS TO BE HIGH CLOUDINESS ALL NIGHT.
OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK GOOD.

PREVIOUS ZONES DISCUSSION

TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...LOCAL WINDS HAVE INCREASED THEIR ONSHORE
COMPONENT DURING THE DAY AND TEMPS HAVE RECOVERED WELL INTO THE 60S
SINCE MORNING. WINDS TONIGHT WILL DIMINISH WITH DUSK WHILE REMAINING
SOMEWHAT HIGHER AT THE BEACHES AND COAST. LOWS WILL BE MILDER THAN
PREV NIGHTS AVERAGING IN THE U40S TO M50S.

A SURFACE HIGH WILL EXIT THE ATLC COAST OF THE CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT
AND INTO SUNDAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES OVER THE WRN ATLC BASIN LOCAL
WINDS WILL VEER SE EARLY SUNDAY. AFTERNOON MIXING WILL PRODUCE
BREEZY SE FLOW ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND. LIMITED AIRMASS
MOISTURE RECOVERY DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL PRECLUDE THE CHANCE OF
MENTIONABLE SHOWERS. SCT CLOUDINESS SHOULD BE THE ONLY FEATURE
PRESENT MAKING FOR A PLEASANT AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE
70S.

MON-MON NIGHT...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE EAST U.S. COAST ON
MON THEN LIFT NORTHEAST OUT INTO THE WESTERN ATLC. THIS WILL FORCE A
WEAKENING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH DOWN THE PENINSULA MON
AFTERNOON/EVENING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL INCREASE IN
UPWARDS OF 1.60 INCHES...THOUGH MUCH OF THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN NORTH. WILL KEEP HIGHER POPS (50 PERCENT)
NORTH ALONG I-4 AND TAPER BACK TO 20 PERCENT OVER MARTIN COUNTY. IT
WILL BE LATE IN THE DAY BEFORE PRECIPITATION AFFECTS THE TREASURE
COAST. ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH IN THE EVENING AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES
SOUTHEASTWARD.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE RELATIVELY TIGHT WITH GUSTY SW/W WINDS
ON THIS DAY. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY MAY BECOME NECESSARY. MAX TEMPS
SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 80S IN THE FAR
SOUTH OF OUR COVERAGE WARNING AREA. COOLER CONDITIONS FILTER DOWN
THE PENINSULA OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS NEAR 40 DEGREES TO L40S NORTH OF
THE I-4 CORRIDOR AS WELL AS INTO MUCH OF OSCEOLA COUNTY. M/U40S MOST
EVERYWHERE ELSE...EXCEPT 50S REMAINING POSSIBLE ALONG THE TREASURE
COAST AND SOUTHERN OKEECHOBEE COUNTY. NW WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED
IN THE EVENING BUT SLOWLY DECREASE LATE OVERNIGHT. WIND CHILLS COULD
BE COLD FOR A PERIOD OVERNIGHT.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...WINDS QUICKLY COME AROUND FROM OUT OF THE NORTHEAST
BEHIND THE MOST RECENT FRONTAL PASSAGE. WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY ON
THIS DAY WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TOWARDS CLIMO. SHOULD SEE L60S
ALONG THE VOLUSIA COAST...M60S NORTH OF I-4 AND U60S/L70S SOUTHWARD.
MILDER OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST WITH MAINLY 50S AREAWIDE...EXCEPT
A FEW U40S POSSIBLE ACROSS LAKE/N. VOLUSIA COUNTIES.

PREVIOUS EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION MODIFIED...

WED-NEXT SAT...FOCUS TURNS TO CUT OFF LOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO THAT
WILL EJECT EASTWARD ON WED-THU. THIS SYSTEM WILL DAMPEN OUT AS IT
ENTERS A MORE CONFLUENT DOWNSTREAM FLOW REGIME...BUT EXPECT ENOUGH
TROUGHING TO GENERATE SOME SORT OF GULF LOW THAT WILL MOVE TOWARDS
THE STATE. THE LATEST MODELS SHOW MORE OF A CHANCE FOR THIS ON THU.
SO AFTER A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WED IN INCREASING ONSHORE
FLOW...WILL GO WITH HIGHER CHANCES...AROUND 40 PERCENT WED
NIGHT...60 PERCENT FOR THU AND 40 PERCENT THU NIGHT.

THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF MODEL RUNS HAVE INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH SIMILAR
STRENGTH WITH THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER AS IT MOVES EAST OF THE REGION
LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI...WITH BOTH MODELS LINGERING MOISTURE INTO
FRI ALONG THE COAST. WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN SLIGHT COASTAL SHOWER
CHANCES FRI-SAT.

AFTER MILD TEMPS AT OR ABOVE NORMAL WED-THU...READINGS WILL DROP
OFF TO NORMAL OR A LITTLE BELOW FRI-SAT.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDS NEXT 24H WITH SCT STRATOCU BASES NEAR 4K FT MOVG ASHORE
FM THE ATLC WATERS. BULK OF CLOUDINESS WL BE AT THE CST AFT 01/01Z.

&&

.MARINE...

CURRENT-OVERNIGHT...THE BUOYS WERE RECORDING NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO
15 KNOTS AND 3 TO 5 FOOT SEAS OUT TO BUOY 009 AT 20NM EAST OF PORT
CANAVERAL AND 6 FEET AT BUOY 010 120NM EAST OF NEW SMYRNA BEACH. THE
TWO NOAA BUOYS WERE RECORDING A 5 FOOT SWELL COMPONENT TO THE SEAS.

WILL KEEP THE SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS EXERCISE CAUTION FOR SEAS IN THE
GULF STREAM TO CATCH THE 6 FOOT SEAS THAT SHOULD PROPAGATE IN FROM
THE EAST.

PREVIOUS MARINE DISCUSSION

TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...CAUTION STMT WL SUFFICE FOR THE GULF STREAM
AND OUTER WATERS AS WINDS SLOWLY CONTINUE A SHORT TERM WEAKENING
TREND. SEA HGHTS WL REMAIN AT LEAST 5-6 FT OVER THE OUTER WATERS
AND 3 TO 4 FT NEAR SHORE THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH AN INCREASE LATE
SUNDAY DUE TO TIGHTENING OF GRADIENT WINDS AHD OF NEXT FRONT.

MON-MON NIGHT...INCREASING MOISTURE AS A COLD FRONT SWINGS THRU
THE AREA MON AFTN/EVENING BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS SIGNIFICANTLY AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH MORNING
SW WINDS BECOMING MORE WESTERLY LATE IN THE DAY AND FINALLY NW/N
MON OVERNIGHT. WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO 25-28 KTS OVER THE
OPEN ATLC WITH FREQUENT/STRONGER GUSTS. WIND SPEEDS DO FINALLY
BEGIN TO DECREASE MON OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 6-9 FT WELL
OFFSHORE AND 4-6 FT NEAR SHORE AND POSSIBLY HIGHER IN THE GULF
STREAM.

TUE-THU...POST FRONTAL CONDITIONS ON TUE WILL SEE WINDS QUICKLY
BECOME NE THRU THE DAY WITH SPEEDS 10-12 KTS. WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER
MORE EASTERLY OVERNIGHT TUE WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL BE GETTING ORGANIZED IN THE WESTERN GULF
ON WED. THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK EASTWARD WED NIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS
THE PENINSULA THU-THU NIGHT. SHOWER CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE WED
NIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD ON THU. INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED AND
CURRENTLY DO NOT HAVE THUNDER MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST BUT THAT
COULD CHANGE WITH LATER ISSUANCES. WINDS WILL REMAIN EASTERLY ON WED
BECOMING MORE SE/S INTO WED NIGHT/THU. A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW MAY EXTEND ACROSS OUR NORTHERN WATERS FOR A
PERIOD AND SEPARATE THE SOUTHERLY WIND TO THE SOUTH AND NORTHERLY
WINDS NORTH OF IT. THE OVERALL STRENGTH/PLACEMENT OF THE LOW WILL
PLAY A ROLE IN DETERMINING WIND SPEEDS.

SEAS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE WITH INITIAL 6 FT SEAS OFFSHORE
DECREASING TO 5 FT LATE IN THE DAY AND 4-5 FT TUE OVERNIGHT. NEAR
SHORE TUE 3-5 FT SEAS WILL FALL 3 FT TUE OVERNIGHT. SEAS MAINLY 3-5
FT WED-THU.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

PREVIOUS FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION

MON-THU...INCREASING MOISTURE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL
LEAD TO EVENTUAL RAIN CHANCES WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT MONDAY
AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY. AT THE MOMENT LOW RH CONCERNS DO NOT LOOK
TO BE AN ISSUE. SW/W WINDS ON MON WILL BE BREEZY/GUSTY LEADING TO
HIGH DISPERSIONS. ONGOING/SMOLDERING FIRES COULD BE SENSITIVE TO
THESE WINDS ESPECIALLY IF RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM
ARE LOW. AT PRESENT SOME GREATER PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL EXIST
ON THU.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  50  74  62  75 /   0  10  20  50
MCO  51  76  62  78 /   0  10  10  50
MLB  57  74  61  82 /  10  10  10  50
VRB  55  75  63  83 /  10  10  10  40
LEE  51  74  64  70 /   0   0  20  50
SFB  50  75  61  72 /   0  10  10  50
ORL  53  74  62  73 /   0  10  10  50
FPR  55  76  63  83 /  10  10  10  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

VOLKMER/WIMMER







000
FXUS62 KMLB 312013
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
313 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...LOCAL WINDS HAVE INCREASED THEIR ONSHORE
COMPONENT DURING THE DAY AND TEMPS HAVE RECOVERED WELL INTO THE
60S SINCE MORNING. WINDS TONIGHT WILL DIMINISH WITH DUSK WHILE
REMAINING SOMEWHAT HIGHER AT THE BEACHES AND COAST. LOWS WILL BE
MILDER THAN PREV NIGHTS AVERAGING IN THE U40S TO M50S.

A SURFACE HIGH WILL EXIT THE ATLC COAST OF THE CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT
AND INTO SUNDAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES OVER THE WRN ATLC BASIN LOCAL
WINDS WILL VEER SE EARLY SUNDAY. AFTERNOON MIXING WILL PRODUCE
BREEZY SE FLOW ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND. LIMITED AIRMASS
MOISTURE RECOVERY DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL PRECLUDE THE CHANCE OF
MENTIONABLE SHOWERS. SCT CLOUDINESS SHOULD BE THE ONLY FEATURE
PRESENT MAKING FOR A PLEASANT AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE
70S.

MON-MON NIGHT...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE EAST U.S. COAST ON
MON THEN LIFT NORTHEAST OUT INTO THE WESTERN ATLC. THIS WILL FORCE A
WEAKENING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH DOWN THE PENINSULA MON
AFTERNOON/EVENING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL INCREASE IN
UPWARDS OF 1.60 INCHES...THOUGH MUCH OF THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN NORTH. WILL KEEP HIGHER POPS (50 PERCENT)
NORTH ALONG I-4 AND TAPER BACK TO 20 PERCENT OVER MARTIN COUNTY. IT
WILL BE LATE IN THE DAY BEFORE PRECIPITATION AFFECTS THE TREASURE
COAST. ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH IN THE EVENING AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES
SOUTHEASTWARD.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE RELATIVELY TIGHT WITH GUSTY SW/W WINDS
ON THIS DAY. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY MAY BECOME NECESSARY. MAX TEMPS
SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 80S IN THE FAR
SOUTH OF OUR COVERAGE WARNING AREA. COOLER CONDITIONS FILTER DOWN
THE PENINSULA OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS NEAR 40 DEGREES TO L40S NORTH OF
THE I-4 CORRIDOR AS WELL AS INTO MUCH OF OSCEOLA COUNTY. M/U40S MOST
EVERYWHERE ELSE...EXCEPT 50S REMAINING POSSIBLE ALONG THE TREASURE
COAST AND SOUTHERN OKEECHOBEE COUNTY. NW WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED
IN THE EVENING BUT SLOWLY DECREASE LATE OVERNIGHT. WIND CHILLS COULD
BE COLD FOR A PERIOD OVERNIGHT.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...WINDS QUICKLY COME AROUND FROM OUT OF THE NORTHEAST
BEHIND THE MOST RECENT FRONTAL PASSAGE. WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY ON
THIS DAY WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TOWARDS CLIMO. SHOULD SEE L60S
ALONG THE VOLUSIA COAST...M60S NORTH OF I-4 AND U60S/L70S SOUTHWARD.
MILDER OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST WITH MAINLY 50S AREAWIDE...EXCEPT
A FEW U40S POSSIBLE ACROSS LAKE/N. VOLUSIA COUNTIES.

...PREVIOUS EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION MODIFIED...

WED-NEXT SAT...FOCUS TURNS TO CUT OFF LOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO THAT
WILL EJECT EASTWARD ON WED-THU. THIS SYSTEM WILL DAMPEN OUT AS IT
ENTERS A MORE CONFLUENT DOWNSTREAM FLOW REGIME...BUT EXPECT ENOUGH
TROUGHING TO GENERATE SOME SORT OF GULF LOW THAT WILL MOVE TOWARDS
THE STATE. THE LATEST MODELS SHOW MORE OF A CHANCE FOR THIS ON THU.
SO AFTER A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WED IN INCREASING ONSHORE
FLOW...WILL GO WITH HIGHER CHANCES...AROUND 40 PERCENT WED
NIGHT...60 PERCENT FOR THU AND 40 PERCENT THU NIGHT.

THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF MODEL RUNS HAVE INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH SIMILAR
STRENGTH WITH THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER AS IT MOVES EAST OF THE REGION
LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI...WITH BOTH MODELS LINGERING MOISTURE INTO
FRI ALONG THE COAST. WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN SLIGHT COASTAL SHOWER
CHANCES FRI-SAT.

AFTER MILD TEMPS AT OR ABOVE NORMAL WED-THU...READINGS WILL DROP
OFF TO NORMAL OR A LITTLE BELOW FRI-SAT.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDS NEXT 24H WITH SCT STRATOCU BASES NEAR 4K FT MOVG ASHORE
FM THE ATLC WATERS. BULK OF CLOUDINESS WL BE AT THE CST AFT 01/01Z.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...CAUTION STMT WL SUFFICE FOR THE GULF STREAM
AND OUTER WATERS AS WINDS SLOWLY CONTINUE A SHORT TERM WEAKENING
TREND. SEA HGHTS WL REMAIN AT LEAST 5-6 FT OVER THE OUTER WATERS
AND 3 TO 4 FT NEAR SHORE THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH AN INCREASE LATE
SUNDAY DUE TO TIGHTENING OF GRADIENT WINDS AHD OF NEXT FRONT.

MON-MON NIGHT...INCREASING MOISTURE AS A COLD FRONT SWINGS THRU
THE AREA MON AFTN/EVENING BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS SIGNIFICANTLY AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH MORNING
SW WINDS BECOMING MORE WESTERLY LATE IN THE DAY AND FINALLY NW/N
MON OVERNIGHT. WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO 25-28 KTS OVER THE
OPEN ATLC WITH FREQUENT/STRONGER GUSTS. WIND SPEEDS DO FINALLY
BEGIN TO DECREASE MON OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 6-9 FT WELL
OFFSHORE AND 4-6 FT NEAR SHORE AND POSSIBLY HIGHER IN THE GULF
STREAM.

TUE-THU...POST FRONTAL CONDITIONS ON TUE WILL SEE WINDS QUICKLY
BECOME NE THRU THE DAY WITH SPEEDS 10-12 KTS. WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER
MORE EASTERLY OVERNIGHT TUE WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL BE GETTING ORGANIZED IN THE WESTERN GULF
ON WED. THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK EASTWARD WED NIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS
THE PENINSULA THU-THU NIGHT. SHOWER CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE WED
NIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD ON THU. INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED AND
CURRENTLY DO NOT HAVE THUNDER MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST BUT THAT
COULD CHANGE WITH LATER ISSUANCES. WINDS WILL REMAIN EASTERLY ON WED
BECOMING MORE SE/S INTO WED NIGHT/THU. A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW MAY EXTEND ACROSS OUR NORTHERN WATERS FOR A
PERIOD AND SEPARATE THE SOUTHERLY WIND TO THE SOUTH AND NORTHERLY
WINDS NORTH OF IT. THE OVERALL STRENGTH/PLACEMENT OF THE LOW WILL
PLAY A ROLE IN DETERMINING WIND SPEEDS.

SEAS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE WITH INITIAL 6 FT SEAS OFFSHORE
DECREASING TO 5 FT LATE IN THE DAY AND 4-5 FT TUE OVERNIGHT. NEAR
SHORE TUE 3-5 FT SEAS WILL FALL 3 FT TUE OVERNIGHT. SEAS MAINLY 3-5
FT WED-THU.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
BRISK SOUTHEAST WINDS SUNDAY WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HIGH
DISPERSION WILL OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES.

MON-THU...INCREASING MOISTURE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL
LEAD TO EVENTUAL RAIN CHANCES WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT MONDAY
AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY. AT THE MOMENT LOW RH CONCERNS DO NOT LOOK
TO BE AN ISSUE. SW/W WINDS ON MON WILL BE BREEZY/GUSTY LEADING TO
HIGH DISPERSIONS. ONGOING/SMOLDERING FIRES COULD BE SENSITIVE TO
THESE WINDS ESPECIALLY IF RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM
ARE LOW. AT PRESENT SOME GREATER PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL EXIST
ON THU.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  50  74  62  75 /   0  10  20  50
MCO  51  76  62  78 /   0  10  10  50
MLB  57  74  61  82 /  10  10  10  50
VRB  55  75  63  83 /  10  10  10  40
LEE  51  74  64  70 /   0   0  20  50
SFB  50  75  61  72 /   0  10  10  50
ORL  53  74  62  73 /   0  10  10  50
FPR  55  76  63  83 /  10  10  10  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PENDERGRAST
LONG TERM....SEDLOCK






000
FXUS62 KMLB 311418
AFDMLB

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
918 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
LTST SOUNDING FM XMR CONFIRMS PRESENCE OF A STABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BLO 5K FT AND SCT MARINE SOURCE SC MOVING
TOWARD THE COAST AT TO BELOW THE INVERSION LAYER. A MIX OF HIGH
CLOUDS AND ONSHORE MOVING MARINE STRATOCU WILL VARY SKY COVER TODAY
FROM PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL RANGING FROM THE MID 60S ALONG THE VOLUSIA COUNTY COAST TO
UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES FARTHER SOUTH AND ACROSS THE
INTERIOR.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BECOME E/NE INTO THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON INCREASING UP TO 10-15 KTS AND GUSTY AT TIMES
ALONG THE COAST. ONSHORE MOVING MARINE STRATOCU WILL PRODUCE SCT-BKN
SKY COVER AROUND 4K FT.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY/TONIGHT...HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TODAY WITH
NE WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS CONTINUING TO PRODUCE SEAS UP TO 7 FEET IN
THE GULF STREAM THROUGH THIS MORNING. AS WINDS VEER MORE EASTERLY
INTO THE AFTERNOON SPEEDS DECREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS WITH SEAS UP TO 6
FEET OFFSHORE INTO TONIGHT. WL PLAN TO REMOVE THE ADVISORY WITH THE
10 AM UPDATE.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-
     WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20
     TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER
     INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD
     COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

JP/TES






000
FXUS62 KMLB 311418
AFDMLB

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
918 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
LTST SOUNDING FM XMR CONFIRMS PRESENCE OF A STABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BLO 5K FT AND SCT MARINE SOURCE SC MOVING
TOWARD THE COAST AT TO BELOW THE INVERSION LAYER. A MIX OF HIGH
CLOUDS AND ONSHORE MOVING MARINE STRATOCU WILL VARY SKY COVER TODAY
FROM PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL RANGING FROM THE MID 60S ALONG THE VOLUSIA COUNTY COAST TO
UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES FARTHER SOUTH AND ACROSS THE
INTERIOR.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BECOME E/NE INTO THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON INCREASING UP TO 10-15 KTS AND GUSTY AT TIMES
ALONG THE COAST. ONSHORE MOVING MARINE STRATOCU WILL PRODUCE SCT-BKN
SKY COVER AROUND 4K FT.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY/TONIGHT...HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TODAY WITH
NE WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS CONTINUING TO PRODUCE SEAS UP TO 7 FEET IN
THE GULF STREAM THROUGH THIS MORNING. AS WINDS VEER MORE EASTERLY
INTO THE AFTERNOON SPEEDS DECREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS WITH SEAS UP TO 6
FEET OFFSHORE INTO TONIGHT. WL PLAN TO REMOVE THE ADVISORY WITH THE
10 AM UPDATE.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-
     WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20
     TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER
     INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD
     COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

JP/TES







000
FXUS62 KMLB 310859
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
359 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY/TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BUILD
SOUTHEAST TODAY...VEERING ELEVATED LOW LEVEL WINDS FROM THE
NORTHEAST TO EAST BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS ONSHORE FLOW WILL BEGIN TO
MODIFY THE DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE AND LIMIT ANY POST FRONTAL COOLING.
HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL RANGING FROM THE MID 60S
ALONG THE VOLUSIA COUNTY COAST TO UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES
FARTHER SOUTH AND ACROSS THE INTERIOR. A MIX OF HIGH CLOUDS AND
ONSHORE MOVING MARINE STRATOCU WILL VARY SKY COVER TODAY FROM MOSTLY
SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FIELDS LOOK TOO SHALLOW
FOR ISOLATED ATLANTIC SHOWERS TO DEVELOP IN THE E/NE FLOW AND MOS
POPS REMAIN QUITE LOW ALONG THE COAST (AROUND 5% OR LESS) SO WILL
KEEP RAIN CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST.

LOW LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT WITH
MODELS SHOWING 925MB FLOW REMAINING AROUND 15-20 KTS. THIS SHOULD
KEEP ONSHORE SFC WINDS AROUND 5-10 MPH OVERNIGHT FROM THE CAPE
SOUTHWARD WITH MILDER OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S
FORECAST. FARTHER NORTH AND INLAND MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.

SUN-SUN NIGHT...SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST/SOUTHEAST
AWAY FROM THE AREA...IN ADVANCE OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL
PUSH INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS WILL PRODUCE A SOUTHEAST WIND
FLOW DURING THE DAY AND SOUTHERLY AT NIGHT...WHICH WILL CAUSE
TEMPS TO BE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY AND AROUND 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL SUN NIGHT.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ON SUNDAY WITH
SHALLOW MOISTENING COMING IN OFF THE ATLANTIC. EXPECT A FEW CLOUD
LINES OVER THE WATER...BUT VEERING LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILES SHOULD
KEEP SUBSTANTIVE SHOWERS OFFSHORE. WILL NOT INCLUDE POPS DURING
THE DAY. PRE FRONTAL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE SUN NIGHT AND EXPECT A
SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH.

MON-TUE...MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH EASTERN U.S.
AND OFFSHORE MON. THIS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION
MON AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE MAIN ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH
WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH...SO MOS POPS FROM 30 TO 40 PERCENT OVER
NORTH/CENTRAL AREAS AND AROUND 20 PERCENT IN THE SOUTH LOOK GOOD.
MAX TEMPS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 80S
IN THE FAR SOUTH.

DRIER/COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL AGAIN BE SHORT LIVED AS
WINDS QUICKLY VEER TO ONSHORE TUE. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE
SOUTH CLOSE TO NORMAL...LOWER/MID 50S TUE MORNING AND LOWER 70S
TUE AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE COOLER IN THE NORTH THOUGH WITH BELOW
NORMAL LOWS IN THE LOWER/MID 40S AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID 60S.

WED-NEXT SAT...THERE CONTINUE TO BE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS WITH
RESPECT TO THEIR HANDLING OF CUT OFF LOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO
THAT WILL EJECT EASTWARD ON WED-THU. THIS SYSTEM WILL DAMPEN OUT
AS IT ENTERS A MORE CONFLUENT DOWNSTREAM FLOW REGIME...BUT EXPECT
ENOUGH TROUGHING TO GENERATE SOME SORT OF GULF LOW THAT WILL MOVE
TOWARDS THE STATE. THE LATEST MODELS SHOW MORE OF A CHANCE FOR
THIS ON THU. SO AFTER A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WED IN
INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW...WILL GO WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCES...
AROUND 40 PERCENT WED NIGHT AND THU.

THE 00Z GFS IS STRONGER AND SLOWER WITH THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER
AS IT MOVES EAST OF THE REGION FRI...BUT EVEN THE ECMWF INDICATES
LINGERING MOISTURE INTO FRI. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT COASTAL SHOWER
CHANCES FRI-SAT.

AFTER MILD TEMPS AT OR ABOVE NORMAL WED-THU...READINGS WILL DROP
OFF TO NORMAL OR A LITTLE BELOW FRI-SAT.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED. N/NE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME
E/NE INTO THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON INCREASING UP TO 10-15 KTS
AND GUSTY AT TIMES ALONG THE COAST. ONSHORE MOVING MARINE STRATOCU
WILL PRODUCE SCT-BKN SKY COVER AROUND 4KFT.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY/TONIGHT...POOR TO HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
TODAY WITH NE WINDS 15-20 KNOTS CONTINUING TO PRODUCE SEAS UP TO 7
FEET IN THE GULF STREAM THROUGH THIS MORNING. AS WINDS VEER MORE
EASTERLY INTO THE AFTERNOON SPEEDS DECREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS WITH SEAS
UP TO 6 FEET OFFSHORE INTO TONIGHT.

SUN...SURFACE HIGH PUSHING SEAWARD WILL CAUSE WINDS TO VEER TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH. SPEEDS LOOK TO BE AT LEAST 15 KNOTS AND MAY
INCREASE IN THE NORTHERN WATERS TO 20 KNOTS LATE IN THE DAY AND
OVERNIGHT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ADVANCES INTO THE SOUTHEAST
STATES. CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT LOOK POOR.

MON-WED...A FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS MON WITH GUSTY
SOUTHWEST FLOW TURNING TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LOOK LIKELY MON AND MON NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES TUE AND
SWING WINDS AROUND TO NORTHEAST...THEN EAST/SOUTHEAST WED...GENERALLY
AT 10-15 KNOTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ONSHORE WINDS INTO THIS WEEKEND WILL MITIGATE ANY
LOW RH CONCERNS. INCREASING MOISTURE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WILL
LEAD TO EVENTUAL RAIN CHANCES WITH NEXT APPROACHING FRONT MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  65  49  75  62 /   0   0  10  20
MCO  69  50  76  62 /   0   0  10  20
MLB  69  55  73  62 /  10  10  10  10
VRB  69  58  74  62 /  10  10  10  10
LEE  68  50  76  63 /   0   0   0  20
SFB  68  50  74  61 /   0   0  10  20
ORL  68  51  75  63 /   0   0  10  20
FPR  69  57  75  62 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-
     WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20
     TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER
     INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD
     COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WEITLICH
LONG TERM....LASCODY





000
FXUS62 KMLB 310859
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
359 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY/TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BUILD
SOUTHEAST TODAY...VEERING ELEVATED LOW LEVEL WINDS FROM THE
NORTHEAST TO EAST BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS ONSHORE FLOW WILL BEGIN TO
MODIFY THE DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE AND LIMIT ANY POST FRONTAL COOLING.
HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL RANGING FROM THE MID 60S
ALONG THE VOLUSIA COUNTY COAST TO UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES
FARTHER SOUTH AND ACROSS THE INTERIOR. A MIX OF HIGH CLOUDS AND
ONSHORE MOVING MARINE STRATOCU WILL VARY SKY COVER TODAY FROM MOSTLY
SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FIELDS LOOK TOO SHALLOW
FOR ISOLATED ATLANTIC SHOWERS TO DEVELOP IN THE E/NE FLOW AND MOS
POPS REMAIN QUITE LOW ALONG THE COAST (AROUND 5% OR LESS) SO WILL
KEEP RAIN CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST.

LOW LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT WITH
MODELS SHOWING 925MB FLOW REMAINING AROUND 15-20 KTS. THIS SHOULD
KEEP ONSHORE SFC WINDS AROUND 5-10 MPH OVERNIGHT FROM THE CAPE
SOUTHWARD WITH MILDER OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S
FORECAST. FARTHER NORTH AND INLAND MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.

SUN-SUN NIGHT...SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST/SOUTHEAST
AWAY FROM THE AREA...IN ADVANCE OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL
PUSH INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS WILL PRODUCE A SOUTHEAST WIND
FLOW DURING THE DAY AND SOUTHERLY AT NIGHT...WHICH WILL CAUSE
TEMPS TO BE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY AND AROUND 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL SUN NIGHT.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ON SUNDAY WITH
SHALLOW MOISTENING COMING IN OFF THE ATLANTIC. EXPECT A FEW CLOUD
LINES OVER THE WATER...BUT VEERING LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILES SHOULD
KEEP SUBSTANTIVE SHOWERS OFFSHORE. WILL NOT INCLUDE POPS DURING
THE DAY. PRE FRONTAL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE SUN NIGHT AND EXPECT A
SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH.

MON-TUE...MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH EASTERN U.S.
AND OFFSHORE MON. THIS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION
MON AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE MAIN ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH
WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH...SO MOS POPS FROM 30 TO 40 PERCENT OVER
NORTH/CENTRAL AREAS AND AROUND 20 PERCENT IN THE SOUTH LOOK GOOD.
MAX TEMPS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 80S
IN THE FAR SOUTH.

DRIER/COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL AGAIN BE SHORT LIVED AS
WINDS QUICKLY VEER TO ONSHORE TUE. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE
SOUTH CLOSE TO NORMAL...LOWER/MID 50S TUE MORNING AND LOWER 70S
TUE AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE COOLER IN THE NORTH THOUGH WITH BELOW
NORMAL LOWS IN THE LOWER/MID 40S AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID 60S.

WED-NEXT SAT...THERE CONTINUE TO BE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS WITH
RESPECT TO THEIR HANDLING OF CUT OFF LOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO
THAT WILL EJECT EASTWARD ON WED-THU. THIS SYSTEM WILL DAMPEN OUT
AS IT ENTERS A MORE CONFLUENT DOWNSTREAM FLOW REGIME...BUT EXPECT
ENOUGH TROUGHING TO GENERATE SOME SORT OF GULF LOW THAT WILL MOVE
TOWARDS THE STATE. THE LATEST MODELS SHOW MORE OF A CHANCE FOR
THIS ON THU. SO AFTER A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WED IN
INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW...WILL GO WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCES...
AROUND 40 PERCENT WED NIGHT AND THU.

THE 00Z GFS IS STRONGER AND SLOWER WITH THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER
AS IT MOVES EAST OF THE REGION FRI...BUT EVEN THE ECMWF INDICATES
LINGERING MOISTURE INTO FRI. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT COASTAL SHOWER
CHANCES FRI-SAT.

AFTER MILD TEMPS AT OR ABOVE NORMAL WED-THU...READINGS WILL DROP
OFF TO NORMAL OR A LITTLE BELOW FRI-SAT.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED. N/NE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME
E/NE INTO THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON INCREASING UP TO 10-15 KTS
AND GUSTY AT TIMES ALONG THE COAST. ONSHORE MOVING MARINE STRATOCU
WILL PRODUCE SCT-BKN SKY COVER AROUND 4KFT.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY/TONIGHT...POOR TO HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
TODAY WITH NE WINDS 15-20 KNOTS CONTINUING TO PRODUCE SEAS UP TO 7
FEET IN THE GULF STREAM THROUGH THIS MORNING. AS WINDS VEER MORE
EASTERLY INTO THE AFTERNOON SPEEDS DECREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS WITH SEAS
UP TO 6 FEET OFFSHORE INTO TONIGHT.

SUN...SURFACE HIGH PUSHING SEAWARD WILL CAUSE WINDS TO VEER TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH. SPEEDS LOOK TO BE AT LEAST 15 KNOTS AND MAY
INCREASE IN THE NORTHERN WATERS TO 20 KNOTS LATE IN THE DAY AND
OVERNIGHT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ADVANCES INTO THE SOUTHEAST
STATES. CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT LOOK POOR.

MON-WED...A FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS MON WITH GUSTY
SOUTHWEST FLOW TURNING TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LOOK LIKELY MON AND MON NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES TUE AND
SWING WINDS AROUND TO NORTHEAST...THEN EAST/SOUTHEAST WED...GENERALLY
AT 10-15 KNOTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ONSHORE WINDS INTO THIS WEEKEND WILL MITIGATE ANY
LOW RH CONCERNS. INCREASING MOISTURE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WILL
LEAD TO EVENTUAL RAIN CHANCES WITH NEXT APPROACHING FRONT MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  65  49  75  62 /   0   0  10  20
MCO  69  50  76  62 /   0   0  10  20
MLB  69  55  73  62 /  10  10  10  10
VRB  69  58  74  62 /  10  10  10  10
LEE  68  50  76  63 /   0   0   0  20
SFB  68  50  74  61 /   0   0  10  20
ORL  68  51  75  63 /   0   0  10  20
FPR  69  57  75  62 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-
     WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20
     TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER
     INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD
     COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WEITLICH
LONG TERM....LASCODY






000
FXUS62 KMLB 310346 AAA
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1030 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST. COOL NORTHERLY FLOW WILL
PRODUCE LOWS IN THE 40S EXCEPT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST SOUTH OF
THE CAPE. BREVARD AND TREASURE COAST LOW TEMPS ARE TRICKY AS FLOW
VEERS WITH TIME AND MODELS SHOW LESS DECOUPLING...MEANING SURFACE
WINDS WILL LIKELY BE NORTH-NORTHEAST AS WELL. SLIGHT DEVIATION IN
WIND DIRECTION BETWEEN N/NW AND NE WILL MEAN THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
MID 40S AND MID 50S. WILL KEEP LOW 50S ALONG THE BREVARD COAST AND
MID 50S TREASURE COAST WHERE FLOW IS MORE LIKELY TO KEEP ONSHORE
COMPONENT.

HIGH THIN CIRRUS WILL STREAM OVERHEAD. SOME MARINE STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS MAY START PUSHING ONSHORE SOUTH OF THE CAPE BY SUNRISE.

SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH BUILDS SOUTHEAST FROM ON/TN VALLEYS DURING
THE DAY VEERING FLOW ONSHORE AND LIMITING ANY POST FRONTAL COOL AIR
ADVECTION. PARTLY SUNNY SKIES OVERALL...THOUGH AS ONSHORE FLOW TAPS
INTO REMNANT FRONTAL MOISTURE COASTAL AREAS WILL LIKELY BE CLOUDIER
WITH MARINE STRATOCU MOVING INTO THE COAST. HIGHS A FEW DEGREES OFF
NORMAL IN THE UPPER 60S/AROUND 70...THOUGH ONSHORE FLOW WILL HOLD
VOLUSIA COAST IN THE MID 60S.


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR. NE-E FLOW ON SAT WILL ADVECT MARINE STRATOCU WITH CLOUD BASE
NEAR 040AGL ONSHORE WITH OCNL BKN CIGS.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT-SATURDAY...FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SCA CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. FLOW VEERS NORTHEAST 15KTS BY DAYBREAK AND
EAST-NORTHEAST 10-15KTS SAT AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH REACHES THE
CAROLINA COAST.

SEAS RAMPING UP TO 7FT IN THE GULF STREAM OVERNIGHT WITH COOL NORTH
WIND OPPOSING THE WARM GULF STREAM. SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. BOATING CONDITIONS WILL BE POOR.

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  44  65  48  75 /   0   0  10  10
MCO  48  70  49  77 /   0   0   0  10
MLB  49  67  54  73 /   0   0  10  10
VRB  52  69  54  75 /   0   0  10  10
LEE  44  69  49  77 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  45  68  49  76 /   0   0   0  10
ORL  47  68  50  76 /   0   0   0  10
FPR  52  69  54  75 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER
     INLET OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER
     INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR WATERS FROM
     VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR WATERS FROM
     FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

KELLY/VOLKMER









000
FXUS62 KMLB 310346 AAA
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1030 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST. COOL NORTHERLY FLOW WILL
PRODUCE LOWS IN THE 40S EXCEPT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST SOUTH OF
THE CAPE. BREVARD AND TREASURE COAST LOW TEMPS ARE TRICKY AS FLOW
VEERS WITH TIME AND MODELS SHOW LESS DECOUPLING...MEANING SURFACE
WINDS WILL LIKELY BE NORTH-NORTHEAST AS WELL. SLIGHT DEVIATION IN
WIND DIRECTION BETWEEN N/NW AND NE WILL MEAN THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
MID 40S AND MID 50S. WILL KEEP LOW 50S ALONG THE BREVARD COAST AND
MID 50S TREASURE COAST WHERE FLOW IS MORE LIKELY TO KEEP ONSHORE
COMPONENT.

HIGH THIN CIRRUS WILL STREAM OVERHEAD. SOME MARINE STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS MAY START PUSHING ONSHORE SOUTH OF THE CAPE BY SUNRISE.

SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH BUILDS SOUTHEAST FROM ON/TN VALLEYS DURING
THE DAY VEERING FLOW ONSHORE AND LIMITING ANY POST FRONTAL COOL AIR
ADVECTION. PARTLY SUNNY SKIES OVERALL...THOUGH AS ONSHORE FLOW TAPS
INTO REMNANT FRONTAL MOISTURE COASTAL AREAS WILL LIKELY BE CLOUDIER
WITH MARINE STRATOCU MOVING INTO THE COAST. HIGHS A FEW DEGREES OFF
NORMAL IN THE UPPER 60S/AROUND 70...THOUGH ONSHORE FLOW WILL HOLD
VOLUSIA COAST IN THE MID 60S.


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR. NE-E FLOW ON SAT WILL ADVECT MARINE STRATOCU WITH CLOUD BASE
NEAR 040AGL ONSHORE WITH OCNL BKN CIGS.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT-SATURDAY...FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SCA CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. FLOW VEERS NORTHEAST 15KTS BY DAYBREAK AND
EAST-NORTHEAST 10-15KTS SAT AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH REACHES THE
CAROLINA COAST.

SEAS RAMPING UP TO 7FT IN THE GULF STREAM OVERNIGHT WITH COOL NORTH
WIND OPPOSING THE WARM GULF STREAM. SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. BOATING CONDITIONS WILL BE POOR.

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  44  65  48  75 /   0   0  10  10
MCO  48  70  49  77 /   0   0   0  10
MLB  49  67  54  73 /   0   0  10  10
VRB  52  69  54  75 /   0   0  10  10
LEE  44  69  49  77 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  45  68  49  76 /   0   0   0  10
ORL  47  68  50  76 /   0   0   0  10
FPR  52  69  54  75 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER
     INLET OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER
     INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR WATERS FROM
     VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR WATERS FROM
     FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

KELLY/VOLKMER








000
FXUS62 KMLB 302019
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
319 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH THE CENTRAL
PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON MARKED BY A BAND OF LOW-MID CLOUDS THAT
CONTINUES TO ERODE WITH TIME. NORTH FLORIDA/S GEORGIA HAVE BEEN
SEEING SOME GUSTY N-NW WINDS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AND AREAS FROM
TITUSVILLE TO KISSIMMEE NORTHWARDS WILL SEE SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS
AS THE FRONT CLEARS THEM BY MID AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THE FRONT GUSTY
WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH THE FRONT CURRENTLY TIMED TO CLEAR
LAKE OKEECHOBEE BY LATE EVENING. RADAR IS PICKING UP THE OCCASIONAL
SPRINKLE ALONG THE ACTUAL BOUNDARY BUT ITS QUESTIONABLE IF THESE ARE
EVEN REACHING THE GROUND GIVEN THE DRY PROFILE AND NARROW MOISTURE
BAND SO WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
BARRING A LIGHT SHOWER OVER THE GULF STREAM. SKIES CLEARING THIS
EVENING BEHIND FRONT THOUGH FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE TURNS
NORTHEAST WHICH MAY ADVECT SOME MARINE STRATOCU INTO THE COAST BY
DAYBREAK.

LOWS OVER THE INTERIOR AND VOLUSIA COAST WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
MID 40S WITH A FEW UPPER 30S POSSIBLE AROUND LAKE GEORGE. BREVARD
AND TREASURE COAST LOW TEMPS TRICKY AS FLOW VEERS WITH TIME AND
MODELS SHOW LESS DECOUPLING...MEANING SURFACE WINDS WILL LIKELY BE
NORTH-NORTHEAST AS WELL. SLIGHT DEVIATION IN WIND DIRECTION BETWEEN
NORTH-NORTHWEST AND NORTHEAST WILL MEAN THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MID
40S AND MID 50S...AS WE SAW A FEW NIGHTS AGO WHERE TEMPERATURES
FLUCTUATED 5-10 DEGREES AN HOUR WITH WIND DIRECTION. FOR NOW WILL
KEEP UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S ALONG MOST OF THIS COAST WITH MARTIN
COUNTY COAST IN THE MID 50S WHERE FLOW IS MORE LIKELY TO KEEP
ONSHORE COMPONENT.

SATURDAY....SURFACE HIGH BUILDS SOUTHEAST FROM ON/TN VALLEYS DURING
THE DAY VEERING FLOW ONSHORE AND LIMITING ANY POST FRONTAL COOL AIR
ADVECTION. PARTLY SUNNY SKIES OVERALL...THOUGH AS ONSHORE FLOW TAPS
INTO REMNANT FRONTAL MOISTURE COASTAL AREAS WILL LIKELY BE CLOUDIER
WITH MARINE STRATOCU MOVING INTO THE COAST. HIGHS A FEW DEGREES OFF
NORMAL IN THE UPPER 60S/AROUND 70...THOUGH ONSHORE FLOW WILL HOLD
VOLUSIA COAST IN THE MID 60S.

SUN...HIGH PRESSURE RELOCATING OFFSHORE THE MID ATLC CST WL
KEEP LCL WINDS VEERING TO SE COMPONENT WITH CONTINUATION OF A
WARMING TREND. AFTERNOON WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH WL HELP PUSH TEMPS
WELL INTO THE 70S ALONG WITH A DRY FORECAST AND PARTLY SUNNY SKIES.

MON-TUE...(FROM PREV DISC) MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS
THROUGH EASTERN U.S. MON PUSHING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION
IN THE AFTN/EVE MON. MAIN ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL
REMAIN WELL NORTH...BUT DECENT MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY AND AREA IN ASCENDING REGION OF 250MB JET JUST NORTH OF
FL SHOULD AID IN ISO/SCT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT AS FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. RAIN CHANCES RANGE FROM 30 TO 40 PERCENT OVER CENTRAL/NRN
AREAS AND AROUND 20 PERCENT ACROSS OKEECHOBEE COUNTY AND THE
TREASURE COAST.

DRIER/COOLER AIR THAT BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL AGAIN BE SHORT
LIVED AS WINDS QUICKLY VEER TO ONSHORE TUE. HIGHS IN THE 70S MON
WILL COOL INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S FROM ORLANDO NORTH TO LOW 70S SOUTH
ON TUE.

WED-THU...RUN TO RUN TIMING DIFFERENCES REMAIN WITH LOW DEPICTION
OVER THE GULF ON THE GFS AND ECMWF DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THE
30/12Z ECMWF KEEPS SLOWED PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM WITH A
EASTERN GULF LOW PLACEMENT 12Z THU MORNING. A FASTER MOVEMENT IS
SHOWN WELL NORTHEAST OF THE STATE THU MORNING BY THE 30/12Z GFS.
REGARDLESS OF SOLUTION INCREASING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD
ARE INDICATED BY BOTH MODELS AS S/SE FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW
INCREASE MOISTURE OVER THE REGION. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS (30-50%)
IN THE FORECAST FOR THESE PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION...
BAND OF LOW-MID CLOUDS BRINGING 1-2HRS CIGS FL020-040 AS FRONT
MOVES THROUGH REGION. AREAS FROM KISM-KTIX AND KMLB WILL SEE
PREVAILING CIGS IN THIS RANGE FROM 19Z-22Z...BUT TREASURE COAST
AND OKEECHOBEE TAFS SITES MAY BE MORE TEMPO 20Z-24Z AS BAND
CONTINUES TO ERODE. PERIOD OF GUSTY NW WINDS BEHIND FRONT THROUGH
02Z. E-NE FLOW ON SAT WILL ADVECT MARINE STRATOCU FL035-040 INTO
COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT-SATURDAY...BUOYS AND CMAN STATIONS SHOW GUSTY NW WINDS
DEVELOPING BEHIND FRONT TO OUR NORTH...SO CURRENT FORECAST APPEARS
ON TRACK FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT AS FRONT CLEARS THE WATERS BY LATE EVENING. WINDS BECOMING
NORTH-NORTHWEST BEHIND FRONT THROUGH REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON PICKING
UP TO AROUND 20KTS OFFSHORE AND 15-20KTS NEARSHORE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. FLOW VEERS NORTHEAST 15KTS BY DAYBREAK AND
EAST-NORTHEAST 10-15KTS SAT AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF
CAROLINA COAST.

SEAS INITIALLY 3-5FT RAMPING UP TO 5-7FT IN THE GULF STREAM BY LATE
EVENING WITH WIND SURGE COUNTERING THE GULF STREAM. SLOW SUBSIDENCE
TO 3-6FT INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SUN...WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY AS HIGH
CENTER MOVES OFF SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST WITH SEAS 3-5 FT.

MON-TUE...WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE S/SW UP TO 15-20 KTS INTO MON
MORNING AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE REGION IN THE
AFT WITH SEAS UP TO 6 FT OFFSHORE. WINDS BECOME N/NW AND REMAIN
ELEVATED BEHIND THE BOUNDARY INTO MON NIGHT. WINDS THEN QUICKLY VEER
TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST AROUND 10-15 KTS ON TUE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHORT LIVED POST FRONTAL DRYING THIS AFTERNOON WL BE REPLACED BY
DEVELOPMENT OF ONSHORE WINDS SATURDAY AND CONTINUING INTO NEXT
WEEK. INCRSG MOISTURE LATE SUNDAY INTO MON WL LEAD TO EVENTUAL
RAIN CHCS WITH NEXT APCHG FRONT DURING MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  44  65  48  75 /   0   0  10  10
MCO  48  70  49  77 /   0   0   0  10
MLB  49  67  54  73 /   0   0  10  10
VRB  52  69  54  75 /   0   0  10  10
LEE  44  69  49  77 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  45  68  49  76 /   0   0   0  10
ORL  47  68  50  76 /   0   0   0  10
FPR  52  69  54  75 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER
     INLET OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER
     INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR WATERS FROM
     VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR WATERS FROM
     FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOSES
LONG TERM....PENDERGRAST






000
FXUS62 KMLB 302019
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
319 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH THE CENTRAL
PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON MARKED BY A BAND OF LOW-MID CLOUDS THAT
CONTINUES TO ERODE WITH TIME. NORTH FLORIDA/S GEORGIA HAVE BEEN
SEEING SOME GUSTY N-NW WINDS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AND AREAS FROM
TITUSVILLE TO KISSIMMEE NORTHWARDS WILL SEE SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS
AS THE FRONT CLEARS THEM BY MID AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THE FRONT GUSTY
WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH THE FRONT CURRENTLY TIMED TO CLEAR
LAKE OKEECHOBEE BY LATE EVENING. RADAR IS PICKING UP THE OCCASIONAL
SPRINKLE ALONG THE ACTUAL BOUNDARY BUT ITS QUESTIONABLE IF THESE ARE
EVEN REACHING THE GROUND GIVEN THE DRY PROFILE AND NARROW MOISTURE
BAND SO WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
BARRING A LIGHT SHOWER OVER THE GULF STREAM. SKIES CLEARING THIS
EVENING BEHIND FRONT THOUGH FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE TURNS
NORTHEAST WHICH MAY ADVECT SOME MARINE STRATOCU INTO THE COAST BY
DAYBREAK.

LOWS OVER THE INTERIOR AND VOLUSIA COAST WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
MID 40S WITH A FEW UPPER 30S POSSIBLE AROUND LAKE GEORGE. BREVARD
AND TREASURE COAST LOW TEMPS TRICKY AS FLOW VEERS WITH TIME AND
MODELS SHOW LESS DECOUPLING...MEANING SURFACE WINDS WILL LIKELY BE
NORTH-NORTHEAST AS WELL. SLIGHT DEVIATION IN WIND DIRECTION BETWEEN
NORTH-NORTHWEST AND NORTHEAST WILL MEAN THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MID
40S AND MID 50S...AS WE SAW A FEW NIGHTS AGO WHERE TEMPERATURES
FLUCTUATED 5-10 DEGREES AN HOUR WITH WIND DIRECTION. FOR NOW WILL
KEEP UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S ALONG MOST OF THIS COAST WITH MARTIN
COUNTY COAST IN THE MID 50S WHERE FLOW IS MORE LIKELY TO KEEP
ONSHORE COMPONENT.

SATURDAY....SURFACE HIGH BUILDS SOUTHEAST FROM ON/TN VALLEYS DURING
THE DAY VEERING FLOW ONSHORE AND LIMITING ANY POST FRONTAL COOL AIR
ADVECTION. PARTLY SUNNY SKIES OVERALL...THOUGH AS ONSHORE FLOW TAPS
INTO REMNANT FRONTAL MOISTURE COASTAL AREAS WILL LIKELY BE CLOUDIER
WITH MARINE STRATOCU MOVING INTO THE COAST. HIGHS A FEW DEGREES OFF
NORMAL IN THE UPPER 60S/AROUND 70...THOUGH ONSHORE FLOW WILL HOLD
VOLUSIA COAST IN THE MID 60S.

SUN...HIGH PRESSURE RELOCATING OFFSHORE THE MID ATLC CST WL
KEEP LCL WINDS VEERING TO SE COMPONENT WITH CONTINUATION OF A
WARMING TREND. AFTERNOON WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH WL HELP PUSH TEMPS
WELL INTO THE 70S ALONG WITH A DRY FORECAST AND PARTLY SUNNY SKIES.

MON-TUE...(FROM PREV DISC) MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS
THROUGH EASTERN U.S. MON PUSHING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION
IN THE AFTN/EVE MON. MAIN ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL
REMAIN WELL NORTH...BUT DECENT MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY AND AREA IN ASCENDING REGION OF 250MB JET JUST NORTH OF
FL SHOULD AID IN ISO/SCT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT AS FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. RAIN CHANCES RANGE FROM 30 TO 40 PERCENT OVER CENTRAL/NRN
AREAS AND AROUND 20 PERCENT ACROSS OKEECHOBEE COUNTY AND THE
TREASURE COAST.

DRIER/COOLER AIR THAT BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL AGAIN BE SHORT
LIVED AS WINDS QUICKLY VEER TO ONSHORE TUE. HIGHS IN THE 70S MON
WILL COOL INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S FROM ORLANDO NORTH TO LOW 70S SOUTH
ON TUE.

WED-THU...RUN TO RUN TIMING DIFFERENCES REMAIN WITH LOW DEPICTION
OVER THE GULF ON THE GFS AND ECMWF DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THE
30/12Z ECMWF KEEPS SLOWED PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM WITH A
EASTERN GULF LOW PLACEMENT 12Z THU MORNING. A FASTER MOVEMENT IS
SHOWN WELL NORTHEAST OF THE STATE THU MORNING BY THE 30/12Z GFS.
REGARDLESS OF SOLUTION INCREASING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD
ARE INDICATED BY BOTH MODELS AS S/SE FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW
INCREASE MOISTURE OVER THE REGION. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS (30-50%)
IN THE FORECAST FOR THESE PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION...
BAND OF LOW-MID CLOUDS BRINGING 1-2HRS CIGS FL020-040 AS FRONT
MOVES THROUGH REGION. AREAS FROM KISM-KTIX AND KMLB WILL SEE
PREVAILING CIGS IN THIS RANGE FROM 19Z-22Z...BUT TREASURE COAST
AND OKEECHOBEE TAFS SITES MAY BE MORE TEMPO 20Z-24Z AS BAND
CONTINUES TO ERODE. PERIOD OF GUSTY NW WINDS BEHIND FRONT THROUGH
02Z. E-NE FLOW ON SAT WILL ADVECT MARINE STRATOCU FL035-040 INTO
COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT-SATURDAY...BUOYS AND CMAN STATIONS SHOW GUSTY NW WINDS
DEVELOPING BEHIND FRONT TO OUR NORTH...SO CURRENT FORECAST APPEARS
ON TRACK FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT AS FRONT CLEARS THE WATERS BY LATE EVENING. WINDS BECOMING
NORTH-NORTHWEST BEHIND FRONT THROUGH REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON PICKING
UP TO AROUND 20KTS OFFSHORE AND 15-20KTS NEARSHORE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. FLOW VEERS NORTHEAST 15KTS BY DAYBREAK AND
EAST-NORTHEAST 10-15KTS SAT AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF
CAROLINA COAST.

SEAS INITIALLY 3-5FT RAMPING UP TO 5-7FT IN THE GULF STREAM BY LATE
EVENING WITH WIND SURGE COUNTERING THE GULF STREAM. SLOW SUBSIDENCE
TO 3-6FT INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SUN...WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY AS HIGH
CENTER MOVES OFF SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST WITH SEAS 3-5 FT.

MON-TUE...WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE S/SW UP TO 15-20 KTS INTO MON
MORNING AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE REGION IN THE
AFT WITH SEAS UP TO 6 FT OFFSHORE. WINDS BECOME N/NW AND REMAIN
ELEVATED BEHIND THE BOUNDARY INTO MON NIGHT. WINDS THEN QUICKLY VEER
TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST AROUND 10-15 KTS ON TUE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHORT LIVED POST FRONTAL DRYING THIS AFTERNOON WL BE REPLACED BY
DEVELOPMENT OF ONSHORE WINDS SATURDAY AND CONTINUING INTO NEXT
WEEK. INCRSG MOISTURE LATE SUNDAY INTO MON WL LEAD TO EVENTUAL
RAIN CHCS WITH NEXT APCHG FRONT DURING MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  44  65  48  75 /   0   0  10  10
MCO  48  70  49  77 /   0   0   0  10
MLB  49  67  54  73 /   0   0  10  10
VRB  52  69  54  75 /   0   0  10  10
LEE  44  69  49  77 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  45  68  49  76 /   0   0   0  10
ORL  47  68  50  76 /   0   0   0  10
FPR  52  69  54  75 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER
     INLET OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER
     INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR WATERS FROM
     VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR WATERS FROM
     FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOSES
LONG TERM....PENDERGRAST







000
FXUS62 KMLB 301401
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
900 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM THE BIG BEND
REGION TO NORTH OF JACKSONVILLE EARLY THIS MORNING...MARKED BY A
THIN BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS AND A QUICK NW WIND SHIFT BEHIND IT.

BAND HAS BEEN WEAKENING OVER LAND AS IT MOVER FURTHER SOUTH AND BOTH
THE WRF AND HRRR SHOW LITTLE MORE THAN A SPRINKLE OR TWO AS THE
BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL PENINSULA THROUGH THE REST OF THE
DAY. THIS APPEARS REASONABLE GIVEN THE EXTREMELY DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE AREA WITH MORNING SOUNDINGS AT TAMPA AND XMR
SHOWING PWATS AROUND 0.68" AND A GOOD INVERSION AROUND 3500FT. WHILE
A SPRINKLE CAN`T BE RULED OUT...WILL KEEP FORECAST OVER LAND DRY
WITH MAIN IMPACTS A PERIOD OF CLOUDINESS WITH THE FRONT MOVING FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY.

GIVEN CURRENT TIMING OF FRONT/WIND SHIFT ARRIVING INTO REGION AROUND
MIDDAY...WILL HOLD HIGHS ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES
IN THE MID 60S...WITH UPPER 60S/AROUND 70S ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE I-4 CORRIDOR. POINTS FURTHER SOUTH WILL REACH INTO THE LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR. APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING
1-2HRS OF CIGS FL020-030 TO EACH SITE AS IT MOVES THROUGH FROM N-S
AFTER 14Z. A FEW SPRINKLES POSSIBLE WITH PASSAGE. WIND SHIFT TO N-NW
WITH G20KTS BEHIND FRONT STARTING AROUND 16Z FOR KLEE-KDAB AND BY
23Z FOR KSUA.

&&

.MARINE...WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW 10-15KTS THIS MORNING ALONG COAST AND
BUOYS AHEAD OF WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA. FRONT
WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH PENINSULA THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY WITH
WINDS SHIFTING NW 15-20KTS NORTH OF THE CAPE BY MIDDAY AND OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE WATERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SOLID 20KTS EXPECTED
OVER OFFSHORE WATERS BY THIS EVENING AS WINDS VEER NORTHERLY. SEAS
INITIALLY 3-5FT THIS MORNING RAMPING UP TO 5-7FT IN THE ADVISORY
AREA BY SUNSET AS NORTH WIND SURGE COUNTERS THE GULF STREAM.

NO CHANGES TO ONGOING ADVISORIES WHICH START AROUND MIDDAY FOR THE
OFFSHORE VOLUSIA COUNTY WATERS...EARLY AFTERNOON FOR THE OFFSHORE
BREVARD WATERS...AND THIS EVENING FOR THE TREASURE COAST WATERS
INCLUDING THE NEARSHORE PORTION OF THE GULFSTREAM.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM SATURDAY
     FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD  COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM SATURDAY
     FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM SATURDAY
     FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

MOSES/PENDERGRAST








000
FXUS62 KMLB 301401
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
900 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM THE BIG BEND
REGION TO NORTH OF JACKSONVILLE EARLY THIS MORNING...MARKED BY A
THIN BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS AND A QUICK NW WIND SHIFT BEHIND IT.

BAND HAS BEEN WEAKENING OVER LAND AS IT MOVER FURTHER SOUTH AND BOTH
THE WRF AND HRRR SHOW LITTLE MORE THAN A SPRINKLE OR TWO AS THE
BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL PENINSULA THROUGH THE REST OF THE
DAY. THIS APPEARS REASONABLE GIVEN THE EXTREMELY DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE AREA WITH MORNING SOUNDINGS AT TAMPA AND XMR
SHOWING PWATS AROUND 0.68" AND A GOOD INVERSION AROUND 3500FT. WHILE
A SPRINKLE CAN`T BE RULED OUT...WILL KEEP FORECAST OVER LAND DRY
WITH MAIN IMPACTS A PERIOD OF CLOUDINESS WITH THE FRONT MOVING FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY.

GIVEN CURRENT TIMING OF FRONT/WIND SHIFT ARRIVING INTO REGION AROUND
MIDDAY...WILL HOLD HIGHS ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES
IN THE MID 60S...WITH UPPER 60S/AROUND 70S ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE I-4 CORRIDOR. POINTS FURTHER SOUTH WILL REACH INTO THE LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR. APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING
1-2HRS OF CIGS FL020-030 TO EACH SITE AS IT MOVES THROUGH FROM N-S
AFTER 14Z. A FEW SPRINKLES POSSIBLE WITH PASSAGE. WIND SHIFT TO N-NW
WITH G20KTS BEHIND FRONT STARTING AROUND 16Z FOR KLEE-KDAB AND BY
23Z FOR KSUA.

&&

.MARINE...WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW 10-15KTS THIS MORNING ALONG COAST AND
BUOYS AHEAD OF WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA. FRONT
WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH PENINSULA THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY WITH
WINDS SHIFTING NW 15-20KTS NORTH OF THE CAPE BY MIDDAY AND OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE WATERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SOLID 20KTS EXPECTED
OVER OFFSHORE WATERS BY THIS EVENING AS WINDS VEER NORTHERLY. SEAS
INITIALLY 3-5FT THIS MORNING RAMPING UP TO 5-7FT IN THE ADVISORY
AREA BY SUNSET AS NORTH WIND SURGE COUNTERS THE GULF STREAM.

NO CHANGES TO ONGOING ADVISORIES WHICH START AROUND MIDDAY FOR THE
OFFSHORE VOLUSIA COUNTY WATERS...EARLY AFTERNOON FOR THE OFFSHORE
BREVARD WATERS...AND THIS EVENING FOR THE TREASURE COAST WATERS
INCLUDING THE NEARSHORE PORTION OF THE GULFSTREAM.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM SATURDAY
     FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD  COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM SATURDAY
     FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM SATURDAY
     FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

MOSES/PENDERGRAST







000
FXUS62 KMLB 300836
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
333 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY/TONIGHT...WEAKENING HIGH PRES RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE GOMEX
ACROSS SOUTH FL AND THE ATLC WILL COMPLETE ITS COLLAPSE...YIELDING
TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE E-W ORIENTED FRONT WILL PUSH INTO
THE NORTHERN CWA BY ABOUT NOON...SLUMPING SOUTH TO AROUND LAKE O BY
SUNSET. LACK OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE/FORCED ASCENT WILL PRECLUDE
RAIN CHCS OVER LAND ASCD WITH FROPA. JUST A SMALL THREAT FOR A FEW
SHOWERS OVER THE GULF STREAM...WITH SOME INCREASE IN LOW-MID CLOUDS
ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT. MAXES TODAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT REACH THE
U60S-70F OVER LAKE/VOLUSIA AND 70-75F TO THE SOUTH.

SAT-SUN...LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS ONSHORE BEHIND THE FRONT INTO THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND
EVENTUALLY OFFSHORE. THIS WILL GRADUALLY MODIFY THE DRY AIRMASS
ACROSS THE REGION AND MAY ALSO LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED
SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE ATLANTIC THAT APPROACH THE COAST
LATER IN THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS QUITE SHALLOW
AND WITH MOS POPS AT OR BELOW 10 PERCENT WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES OUT
OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW.

HIGHS 3-5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SAT RANGING FROM THE MID 60S ALONG
VOLUSIA COUNTY COAST TO UPPER 60S/NEAR 70 FARTHER SOUTH AND OVER THE
INTERIOR. TEMPS THEN WARM INTO THE LOW/MID 70S ON SUN. OVERNIGHT
TEMPS WILL NOT BE AS CHILLY WITH LOWS IN THE 50S MOST AREAS SAT
NIGHT AND UPPER 50S/LOW 60S SUN NIGHT.

MON-TUE...MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH EASTERN U.S. MON
PUSHING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION INTO THE AFT. MAIN ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH...BUT DECENT
MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY AND AREA IN ASCENDING
REGION OF 250MB JET JUST NORTH OF FL SHOULD AID IN ISO/SCT SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH. RAIN CHANCES RANGE FROM 30
PERCENT OVER CENTRAL/NRN AREAS AND 20 PERCENT ACROSS OKEECHOBEE
COUNTY AND THE TREASURE COAST.

DRIER/COOLER AIR THAT BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL AGAIN BE SHORT
LIVED AS WINDS QUICKLY VEER TO ONSHORE TUE. HIGHS IN THE 70S MON
WILL COOL INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S FROM ORLANDO NORTH TO LOW 70S SOUTH
ON TUE.

WED-THU...MODELS ARE TRYING TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF THAT LIFTS E/NE
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND NORTH OF CENTRAL FL. HOWEVER PLENTY
OF RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCIES AND TIMING DIFFERENCES REMAIN WITH
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DURING THIS TIMEFRAME AND THEREFORE LEAD TO
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST THIS FAR OUT. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS
ACTUALLY SLOWED PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM WITH A MORE FASTER
MOVEMENT NOW INDICATED BY THE 00Z GFS. REGARDLESS OF SOLUTION
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE INDICATED BY BOTH
MODELS AS S/SE FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW INCREASE MOISTURE OVER THE
REGION. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS (30-50%) IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. CIGS NEAR BKN040 ASCD WITH FROPA FOR ABOUT 3-6HRS.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY/TONIGHT...WESTERLY FLOW HAS PICKED UP TO AROUND 10-15KT EARLY
THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NRLY AND INCREASE FURTHER TO ABOUT
20KT AS THE FRONT SWEEPS SWD THRU THE ADJACENT ATLC WATERS FROM THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNSET. WINDS WILL REMAIN NEAR 20KT THROUGH AROUND
SUNRISE SATURDAY AS THEY VEER TO N-NE. 00Z NWPS MODEL RUN LOOKS MORE
REALISTIC FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY WITH
SEAS IN THE GULF STREAM. WILL INTRODUCE AN SCA FOR ALL 20-60NM LEGS
PLUS THE 0-20NM LES SOUTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET. DECIDED TO STAGGER THE
START TIMES NORTH-SOUTH BY 3-6HR...GIVEN THE SWD PROGRESSION OF NRLY
POST-FRONTAL WIND SURGE.

SAT-SUN...ELEVATED NORTHEAST WINDS UP TO 15-20 KTS EARLY SAT WILL
SLOWLY DECREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE VEER TO THE EAST. HOWEVER
SEAS OFFSHORE WILL REMAIN UP TO 6 FEET WHICH WILL CONTINUE POOR
BOATING CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER
TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY AS HIGH CENTER MOVES OFF SOUTHEAST
U.S. COAST WITH SEAS 3-5 FT.

MON-TUE...WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE S/SW UP TO 15-20 KTS INTO MON
MORNING AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE REGION IN THE
AFT WITH SEAS UP TO 6 FT OFFSHORE. WINDS BECOME N/NW AND REMAIN
ELEVATED BEHIND THE BOUNDARY INTO MON NIGHT. WINDS THEN QUICKLY VEER
TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST AROUND 10-15 KTS ON TUE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  67  42  64  51 /  10   0   0  10
MCO  72  45  69  52 /  10   0   0   0
MLB  70  47  68  56 /  10   0  10  10
VRB  73  48  69  57 /  10  10  10  10
LEE  71  43  68  50 /  10   0   0   0
SFB  70  44  68  52 /  10   0   0   0
ORL  71  46  69  53 /  10   0   0   0
FPR  72  49  69  58 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM SATURDAY
     FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD  COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM SATURDAY
     FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM SATURDAY
     FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...CRISTALDI
LONG TERM....WEITLICH






000
FXUS62 KMLB 300836
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
333 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY/TONIGHT...WEAKENING HIGH PRES RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE GOMEX
ACROSS SOUTH FL AND THE ATLC WILL COMPLETE ITS COLLAPSE...YIELDING
TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE E-W ORIENTED FRONT WILL PUSH INTO
THE NORTHERN CWA BY ABOUT NOON...SLUMPING SOUTH TO AROUND LAKE O BY
SUNSET. LACK OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE/FORCED ASCENT WILL PRECLUDE
RAIN CHCS OVER LAND ASCD WITH FROPA. JUST A SMALL THREAT FOR A FEW
SHOWERS OVER THE GULF STREAM...WITH SOME INCREASE IN LOW-MID CLOUDS
ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT. MAXES TODAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT REACH THE
U60S-70F OVER LAKE/VOLUSIA AND 70-75F TO THE SOUTH.

SAT-SUN...LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS ONSHORE BEHIND THE FRONT INTO THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND
EVENTUALLY OFFSHORE. THIS WILL GRADUALLY MODIFY THE DRY AIRMASS
ACROSS THE REGION AND MAY ALSO LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED
SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE ATLANTIC THAT APPROACH THE COAST
LATER IN THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS QUITE SHALLOW
AND WITH MOS POPS AT OR BELOW 10 PERCENT WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES OUT
OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW.

HIGHS 3-5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SAT RANGING FROM THE MID 60S ALONG
VOLUSIA COUNTY COAST TO UPPER 60S/NEAR 70 FARTHER SOUTH AND OVER THE
INTERIOR. TEMPS THEN WARM INTO THE LOW/MID 70S ON SUN. OVERNIGHT
TEMPS WILL NOT BE AS CHILLY WITH LOWS IN THE 50S MOST AREAS SAT
NIGHT AND UPPER 50S/LOW 60S SUN NIGHT.

MON-TUE...MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH EASTERN U.S. MON
PUSHING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION INTO THE AFT. MAIN ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH...BUT DECENT
MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY AND AREA IN ASCENDING
REGION OF 250MB JET JUST NORTH OF FL SHOULD AID IN ISO/SCT SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH. RAIN CHANCES RANGE FROM 30
PERCENT OVER CENTRAL/NRN AREAS AND 20 PERCENT ACROSS OKEECHOBEE
COUNTY AND THE TREASURE COAST.

DRIER/COOLER AIR THAT BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL AGAIN BE SHORT
LIVED AS WINDS QUICKLY VEER TO ONSHORE TUE. HIGHS IN THE 70S MON
WILL COOL INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S FROM ORLANDO NORTH TO LOW 70S SOUTH
ON TUE.

WED-THU...MODELS ARE TRYING TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF THAT LIFTS E/NE
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND NORTH OF CENTRAL FL. HOWEVER PLENTY
OF RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCIES AND TIMING DIFFERENCES REMAIN WITH
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DURING THIS TIMEFRAME AND THEREFORE LEAD TO
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST THIS FAR OUT. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS
ACTUALLY SLOWED PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM WITH A MORE FASTER
MOVEMENT NOW INDICATED BY THE 00Z GFS. REGARDLESS OF SOLUTION
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE INDICATED BY BOTH
MODELS AS S/SE FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW INCREASE MOISTURE OVER THE
REGION. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS (30-50%) IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. CIGS NEAR BKN040 ASCD WITH FROPA FOR ABOUT 3-6HRS.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY/TONIGHT...WESTERLY FLOW HAS PICKED UP TO AROUND 10-15KT EARLY
THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NRLY AND INCREASE FURTHER TO ABOUT
20KT AS THE FRONT SWEEPS SWD THRU THE ADJACENT ATLC WATERS FROM THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNSET. WINDS WILL REMAIN NEAR 20KT THROUGH AROUND
SUNRISE SATURDAY AS THEY VEER TO N-NE. 00Z NWPS MODEL RUN LOOKS MORE
REALISTIC FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY WITH
SEAS IN THE GULF STREAM. WILL INTRODUCE AN SCA FOR ALL 20-60NM LEGS
PLUS THE 0-20NM LES SOUTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET. DECIDED TO STAGGER THE
START TIMES NORTH-SOUTH BY 3-6HR...GIVEN THE SWD PROGRESSION OF NRLY
POST-FRONTAL WIND SURGE.

SAT-SUN...ELEVATED NORTHEAST WINDS UP TO 15-20 KTS EARLY SAT WILL
SLOWLY DECREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE VEER TO THE EAST. HOWEVER
SEAS OFFSHORE WILL REMAIN UP TO 6 FEET WHICH WILL CONTINUE POOR
BOATING CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER
TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY AS HIGH CENTER MOVES OFF SOUTHEAST
U.S. COAST WITH SEAS 3-5 FT.

MON-TUE...WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE S/SW UP TO 15-20 KTS INTO MON
MORNING AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE REGION IN THE
AFT WITH SEAS UP TO 6 FT OFFSHORE. WINDS BECOME N/NW AND REMAIN
ELEVATED BEHIND THE BOUNDARY INTO MON NIGHT. WINDS THEN QUICKLY VEER
TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST AROUND 10-15 KTS ON TUE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  67  42  64  51 /  10   0   0  10
MCO  72  45  69  52 /  10   0   0   0
MLB  70  47  68  56 /  10   0  10  10
VRB  73  48  69  57 /  10  10  10  10
LEE  71  43  68  50 /  10   0   0   0
SFB  70  44  68  52 /  10   0   0   0
ORL  71  46  69  53 /  10   0   0   0
FPR  72  49  69  58 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM SATURDAY
     FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD  COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM SATURDAY
     FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM SATURDAY
     FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...CRISTALDI
LONG TERM....WEITLICH







000
FXUS62 KMLB 300150
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
850 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WAS ACROSS CENTRAL FL THIS EVENING WITH
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THE SFC RIDGE WILL SLIP SOUTH
OVERNIGHT WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL CIRRUS MOVING IN FROM THE NW LATE.
LITTLE CHANGE TO CURRENT FORECAST WITH LOWS FROM 45-50 DEGREES. WILL
CONTINUE PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE WHICH MAY BE MORE PREVALENT
ACROSS SRN SECTIONS CLOSER TO THE SFC RIDGE. THERE WILL ALSO BE A
CHANCE OF LOCALIZED SMOKE NEAR ANY SMOLDERING PRESCRIBED BURNS/FIRES
ACROSS PORTIONS OF E CENTRAL FL LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR. PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP AND COULD PRODUCE TEMPO MVFR VSBYS ESP
AT FOG PRONE SITES SUCH AS FPR AND LEE. GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 20
KNOTS WITH AND AFTER FROPA ON FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LITTLE CHANGE FOR OVERNIGHT FORECAST WITH A NORTHEAST 3 TO 5 FOOT
LONG PERIOD SWELL ACROSS THE WATERS. HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY WITH INCREASING WINDS BEHIND THE NEXT
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND BUILDING SEAS LATE FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY
OFFSHORE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  48  69  43  64 /   0  10   0   0
MCO  50  72  47  70 /   0  10   0   0
MLB  48  71  49  68 /   0  10  10   0
VRB  48  73  51  69 /   0   0  10  10
LEE  50  71  44  69 /   0  10   0   0
SFB  50  72  45  68 /   0  10   0   0
ORL  50  71  48  69 /   0  10   0   0
FPR  47  73  50  70 /   0   0  10  10


&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

VOLKMER/SHARP









000
FXUS62 KMLB 300150
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
850 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WAS ACROSS CENTRAL FL THIS EVENING WITH
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THE SFC RIDGE WILL SLIP SOUTH
OVERNIGHT WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL CIRRUS MOVING IN FROM THE NW LATE.
LITTLE CHANGE TO CURRENT FORECAST WITH LOWS FROM 45-50 DEGREES. WILL
CONTINUE PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE WHICH MAY BE MORE PREVALENT
ACROSS SRN SECTIONS CLOSER TO THE SFC RIDGE. THERE WILL ALSO BE A
CHANCE OF LOCALIZED SMOKE NEAR ANY SMOLDERING PRESCRIBED BURNS/FIRES
ACROSS PORTIONS OF E CENTRAL FL LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR. PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP AND COULD PRODUCE TEMPO MVFR VSBYS ESP
AT FOG PRONE SITES SUCH AS FPR AND LEE. GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 20
KNOTS WITH AND AFTER FROPA ON FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LITTLE CHANGE FOR OVERNIGHT FORECAST WITH A NORTHEAST 3 TO 5 FOOT
LONG PERIOD SWELL ACROSS THE WATERS. HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY WITH INCREASING WINDS BEHIND THE NEXT
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND BUILDING SEAS LATE FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY
OFFSHORE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  48  69  43  64 /   0  10   0   0
MCO  50  72  47  70 /   0  10   0   0
MLB  48  71  49  68 /   0  10  10   0
VRB  48  73  51  69 /   0   0  10  10
LEE  50  71  44  69 /   0  10   0   0
SFB  50  72  45  68 /   0  10   0   0
ORL  50  71  48  69 /   0  10   0   0
FPR  47  73  50  70 /   0   0  10  10


&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

VOLKMER/SHARP








000
FXUS62 KMLB 292058
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
358 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL GET SHUNTED SOUTH ACROSS
CENTRAL FL THIS EVENING AND REACH SOUTH FLORIDA FRI MORNING AHEAD
OF A FRONTAL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NW. THIS WILL PRODUCE A
PLEASANT EVENING WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.
THE BEST CHANCE MAY BE ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS CLOSER TO THE
RIDGE AXIS SINCE WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER
OVERNIGHT. BUT PATCHY FOG MAY MIX WITH SMOKE NEAR ANY OF THE MANY
SMOLDERING FIRES AND SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES.

FRI...A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR
RAIN. THERE SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF CLOUDINESS WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND WINDS WILL INCREASE A BIT OUT OF THE NORTHWEST BEHIND
THE FRONT. WILL KEEP A SILENT 10 POP. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S.

SAT-SUN...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND MOST OF ITS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH OF THE REGION BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY AS SURFACE
HIGH OVER THE OH/TN VALLEY BUILDS TOWARDS THE COAST. MODELS HAVE
BEEN TRENDING TOWARDS THE HIGH CENTER PUSHING FURTHER SOUTH...WHICH
IN TURN BRINGS MORE DRY AIR INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA EVEN AT THE LOWER
LEVELS. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR SATURDAY AS WHAT LITTLE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS BEHIND THE FRONT THAT THE ONSHORE FLOW TAPS
INTO LOOKS TO BE MORE IN THE FORM OF INCREASING MARINE STRATOCU.

SURFACE HIGH SLIDES OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST BY SUN AS NEXT SYSTEM
WINDS UP OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. FLOW VEERS MORE SOUTHEAST DURING THE
DAY WHICH WILL TAP BACK INTO THE REMNANT FRONTAL BAND AS WELL AS
SOME ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM AS LOW LEVEL FLOW ABOVE THE
SURFACE BEGINS TO VEER MORE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WITH TIME. ISOLATED
SHOWERS A POSSIBILITY...MAINLY OVER THE ATLANTIC BUT A FEW WILL
BRUSH THE COAST.

ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT BEHIND FRIDAY`S FRONT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S...A
FEW COLDER SPOTS REACHING THE UPPER 30S. AS WE`VE SEEN
RECENTLY...WITH THE TREND FOR FLOW TO BEGIN VEERING OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPS ALONG THE COAST FROM MELBOURNE SOUTHWARDS WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON WIND DIRECTION. LEANING TOWARDS SOME ONSHORE FLOW
KEEPING LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S OVERNIGHT. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW
70S SAT WILL WARM INTO THE LOW/MID 70S SUN. OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA WILL BE IN THE 50S...EXCEPT LOW 60S ALONG COASTAL AREAS
FROM CAPE SOUTHWARD SUN NIGHT.

MON-THURS...PROGRESSIVE PATTERN REMAIN IN PLACE NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS MOVES THROUGH THE EASTERN U.S. ON MON AND PUSHES
A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. A LITTLE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY AND SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH.

12Z RUNS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH POST-FRONTAL
DRY/COOL AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT ON TUESDAY...LEADING TO
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY WITH ISOLATED POPS IN FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT AS FLOW QUICKLY VEERS ONSHORE.

FORECAST BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN INTO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH
CONTINUING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF. WHILE BOTH MODELS SHOW
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA CUT OFF EJECTING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
MID-WEEK SPARKING A GULF LOW...THEY ARE CONSIDERABLY DIFFERENT IN
TERMS OF TIMING AND STRENGTH. LATEST RUN OF THE ECMWF HAS SLOWED
DOWN THE TIMING OF THE LOW AND FRONT SLIGHTLY...NOW LIFTING THE
SURFACE LOW ACROSS N FLORIDA LATE WEDNESDAY WITH A ROBUST FRONTAL
PASSAGE ON THURSDAY WHILE THE GFS DOESN`T BRING THE FRONT THROUGH
UNTIL LATE THURSDAY.

BASED ON 12Z RUNS...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE ONGOING FORECAST IS
WARRANTED WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE REGION FROM
WEDNESDAY ONWARDS. HOWEVER DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES THIS FAR OUT
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR. WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER SUNSET AS RIDGE AXIS
SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA. PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP AND COULD PRODUCE
TEMPO MVFR VSBYS ESP AT FOG PRONE SITES SUCH AS FPR AND LEE.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT/FRI...PRESSURE GRADIENT IS COLLAPSING AS RIDGE AXIS
SETTLES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. BUT OFFSHORE (W-SW) FLOW WILL
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS AS THE
RIDGE AXIS SLIPS INTO SOUTH FL. WEAK COOL FRONT WILL CROSS THE
WATERS FRIDAY WITH NW WINDS INCREASING 15-20 KNOTS OFFSHORE. WILL
LIKELY NEED A CAUTION HEADLINE AT LEAST FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS.

SAT-SUN...SOMEWHAT CHOPPY BOATING CONDITIONS IN PLACE THIS WEEKEND
ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY AS NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 15KTS IN THE
MORNING VEER EAST-NORTHEAST 10-15KTS IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS
CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY AS HIGH CENTER
MOVES OFF EASTERN US COAST AND TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. SEAS 3-5FT
WITH DOMINANT PERIODS AROUND 7-9SEC.

MON-WED...NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH
WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-15KTS BECOMING NORTHWEST 15-20KTS BY THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS QUICKLY VEER TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST AROUND 10KTS ON
TUESDAY...AND SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER SYSTEM TAKES
SHAPE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED...DUE TO
NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND SURGE BEHIND FRONT LATE MONDAY AND A LONGER
PERIOD SWELL MOVING INTO THE WATERS MON-WED. HEIGHTS GENERALLY 3-5FT
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH UP TO 7 FEET AT TIMES OVER THE GULF
STREAM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  68  48  69  43 /   0   0  10   0
MCO  70  49  72  47 /   0   0  10   0
MLB  69  49  71  49 /   0   0  10  10
VRB  70  49  73  51 /  10   0   0  10
LEE  69  48  71  44 /   0   0  10   0
SFB  69  49  72  45 /   0   0  10   0
ORL  69  50  71  48 /   0   0  10   0
FPR  70  50  73  50 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KELLY
LONG TERM....MOSES








000
FXUS62 KMLB 292058
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
358 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL GET SHUNTED SOUTH ACROSS
CENTRAL FL THIS EVENING AND REACH SOUTH FLORIDA FRI MORNING AHEAD
OF A FRONTAL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NW. THIS WILL PRODUCE A
PLEASANT EVENING WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.
THE BEST CHANCE MAY BE ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS CLOSER TO THE
RIDGE AXIS SINCE WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER
OVERNIGHT. BUT PATCHY FOG MAY MIX WITH SMOKE NEAR ANY OF THE MANY
SMOLDERING FIRES AND SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES.

FRI...A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR
RAIN. THERE SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF CLOUDINESS WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND WINDS WILL INCREASE A BIT OUT OF THE NORTHWEST BEHIND
THE FRONT. WILL KEEP A SILENT 10 POP. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S.

SAT-SUN...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND MOST OF ITS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH OF THE REGION BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY AS SURFACE
HIGH OVER THE OH/TN VALLEY BUILDS TOWARDS THE COAST. MODELS HAVE
BEEN TRENDING TOWARDS THE HIGH CENTER PUSHING FURTHER SOUTH...WHICH
IN TURN BRINGS MORE DRY AIR INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA EVEN AT THE LOWER
LEVELS. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR SATURDAY AS WHAT LITTLE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS BEHIND THE FRONT THAT THE ONSHORE FLOW TAPS
INTO LOOKS TO BE MORE IN THE FORM OF INCREASING MARINE STRATOCU.

SURFACE HIGH SLIDES OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST BY SUN AS NEXT SYSTEM
WINDS UP OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. FLOW VEERS MORE SOUTHEAST DURING THE
DAY WHICH WILL TAP BACK INTO THE REMNANT FRONTAL BAND AS WELL AS
SOME ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM AS LOW LEVEL FLOW ABOVE THE
SURFACE BEGINS TO VEER MORE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WITH TIME. ISOLATED
SHOWERS A POSSIBILITY...MAINLY OVER THE ATLANTIC BUT A FEW WILL
BRUSH THE COAST.

ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT BEHIND FRIDAY`S FRONT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S...A
FEW COLDER SPOTS REACHING THE UPPER 30S. AS WE`VE SEEN
RECENTLY...WITH THE TREND FOR FLOW TO BEGIN VEERING OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPS ALONG THE COAST FROM MELBOURNE SOUTHWARDS WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON WIND DIRECTION. LEANING TOWARDS SOME ONSHORE FLOW
KEEPING LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S OVERNIGHT. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW
70S SAT WILL WARM INTO THE LOW/MID 70S SUN. OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA WILL BE IN THE 50S...EXCEPT LOW 60S ALONG COASTAL AREAS
FROM CAPE SOUTHWARD SUN NIGHT.

MON-THURS...PROGRESSIVE PATTERN REMAIN IN PLACE NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS MOVES THROUGH THE EASTERN U.S. ON MON AND PUSHES
A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. A LITTLE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY AND SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH.

12Z RUNS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH POST-FRONTAL
DRY/COOL AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT ON TUESDAY...LEADING TO
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY WITH ISOLATED POPS IN FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT AS FLOW QUICKLY VEERS ONSHORE.

FORECAST BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN INTO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH
CONTINUING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF. WHILE BOTH MODELS SHOW
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA CUT OFF EJECTING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
MID-WEEK SPARKING A GULF LOW...THEY ARE CONSIDERABLY DIFFERENT IN
TERMS OF TIMING AND STRENGTH. LATEST RUN OF THE ECMWF HAS SLOWED
DOWN THE TIMING OF THE LOW AND FRONT SLIGHTLY...NOW LIFTING THE
SURFACE LOW ACROSS N FLORIDA LATE WEDNESDAY WITH A ROBUST FRONTAL
PASSAGE ON THURSDAY WHILE THE GFS DOESN`T BRING THE FRONT THROUGH
UNTIL LATE THURSDAY.

BASED ON 12Z RUNS...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE ONGOING FORECAST IS
WARRANTED WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE REGION FROM
WEDNESDAY ONWARDS. HOWEVER DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES THIS FAR OUT
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR. WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER SUNSET AS RIDGE AXIS
SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA. PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP AND COULD PRODUCE
TEMPO MVFR VSBYS ESP AT FOG PRONE SITES SUCH AS FPR AND LEE.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT/FRI...PRESSURE GRADIENT IS COLLAPSING AS RIDGE AXIS
SETTLES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. BUT OFFSHORE (W-SW) FLOW WILL
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS AS THE
RIDGE AXIS SLIPS INTO SOUTH FL. WEAK COOL FRONT WILL CROSS THE
WATERS FRIDAY WITH NW WINDS INCREASING 15-20 KNOTS OFFSHORE. WILL
LIKELY NEED A CAUTION HEADLINE AT LEAST FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS.

SAT-SUN...SOMEWHAT CHOPPY BOATING CONDITIONS IN PLACE THIS WEEKEND
ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY AS NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 15KTS IN THE
MORNING VEER EAST-NORTHEAST 10-15KTS IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS
CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY AS HIGH CENTER
MOVES OFF EASTERN US COAST AND TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. SEAS 3-5FT
WITH DOMINANT PERIODS AROUND 7-9SEC.

MON-WED...NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH
WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-15KTS BECOMING NORTHWEST 15-20KTS BY THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS QUICKLY VEER TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST AROUND 10KTS ON
TUESDAY...AND SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER SYSTEM TAKES
SHAPE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED...DUE TO
NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND SURGE BEHIND FRONT LATE MONDAY AND A LONGER
PERIOD SWELL MOVING INTO THE WATERS MON-WED. HEIGHTS GENERALLY 3-5FT
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH UP TO 7 FEET AT TIMES OVER THE GULF
STREAM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  68  48  69  43 /   0   0  10   0
MCO  70  49  72  47 /   0   0  10   0
MLB  69  49  71  49 /   0   0  10  10
VRB  70  49  73  51 /  10   0   0  10
LEE  69  48  71  44 /   0   0  10   0
SFB  69  49  72  45 /   0   0  10   0
ORL  69  50  71  48 /   0   0  10   0
FPR  70  50  73  50 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KELLY
LONG TERM....MOSES









000
FXUS62 KMLB 291544 AAA
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1040 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MORNING CAPE SOUNDING SHOWS ONSHORE FLOW IN THE LOWEST 5K FT WITH A
STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AT THE TOP OF THIS MARINE LAYER AT 850
MB. ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING SOME MARINE STRATOCUMULUS ONSHORE BUT NO
RAIN IS EXPECTED. WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS FL
BY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN DECREASING WINDS VEERING TO THE
SE THIS AFTN THEN BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING. MILDER
TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S...VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL
NORMS.


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR. OCNL CIGS BKN040-050 IN MARINE SC WILL SPREAD ONSHORE MAINLY
FROM MLB-SUA INTO THE AFTN...THEN DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
SETTLES OVER THE AREA THIS EVE.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS HAVE VEERED TO THE EAST 10-15 KNOTS AND EXPECT FLOW TO
CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE SE AND DECREASE BELOW 10 KNOTS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AS WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE DROPS INTO
FL. WILL PARE THE CAUTION DOWN A BIT BUT SWAN SHOWS 6 FT SEAS
REMAINING WELL OFFSHORE FROM THE CAPE SOUTHWARD SO WILL KEEP A
"CAUTION FOR SEAS" THIS AFTN THERE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  67  48  67  45 /   0   0  10   0
MCO  70  49  71  48 /   0   0  10   0
MLB  69  47  70  51 /   0   0  10  10
VRB  70  48  72  52 /  10   0   0  10
LEE  70  51  70  45 /   0   0  10   0
SFB  69  49  70  46 /   0   0  10   0
ORL  69  51  71  49 /   0   0  10   0
FPR  70  46  72  52 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

KELLY/MOSES








000
FXUS62 KMLB 291544 AAA
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1040 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MORNING CAPE SOUNDING SHOWS ONSHORE FLOW IN THE LOWEST 5K FT WITH A
STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AT THE TOP OF THIS MARINE LAYER AT 850
MB. ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING SOME MARINE STRATOCUMULUS ONSHORE BUT NO
RAIN IS EXPECTED. WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS FL
BY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN DECREASING WINDS VEERING TO THE
SE THIS AFTN THEN BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING. MILDER
TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S...VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL
NORMS.


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR. OCNL CIGS BKN040-050 IN MARINE SC WILL SPREAD ONSHORE MAINLY
FROM MLB-SUA INTO THE AFTN...THEN DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
SETTLES OVER THE AREA THIS EVE.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS HAVE VEERED TO THE EAST 10-15 KNOTS AND EXPECT FLOW TO
CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE SE AND DECREASE BELOW 10 KNOTS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AS WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE DROPS INTO
FL. WILL PARE THE CAUTION DOWN A BIT BUT SWAN SHOWS 6 FT SEAS
REMAINING WELL OFFSHORE FROM THE CAPE SOUTHWARD SO WILL KEEP A
"CAUTION FOR SEAS" THIS AFTN THERE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  67  48  67  45 /   0   0  10   0
MCO  70  49  71  48 /   0   0  10   0
MLB  69  47  70  51 /   0   0  10  10
VRB  70  48  72  52 /  10   0   0  10
LEE  70  51  70  45 /   0   0  10   0
SFB  69  49  70  46 /   0   0  10   0
ORL  69  51  71  49 /   0   0  10   0
FPR  70  46  72  52 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

KELLY/MOSES









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