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000
FXUS62 KMLB 030825
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
415 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...

ATLC RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE NRN BAHAMAS TO THE NE GOMEX WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE...BLOCKED BY A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES OVER THE
MIDWEST/MID SOUTH WITH AN ADJACENT FRONTAL TROF EXTENDING UP ERN
SEABOARD FROM THE CAROLINAS NWD. WINDS THRU THE H100-H50 LYR AOB
10KTS WILL PROMOTE THE FORMATION OF THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE AROUND
MIDDAY...BUT ALSO WILL RESULT IN VERY SLOW STORM MOTION THAT WILL
LIMIT STORM COVERAGE.

LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AS NONE OF THE THE 00Z
PENINSULA RAOBS SHOWED ANY MEANINGFUL INVERSIONS THRU THE H100-H70
LYR...DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD INITIALIZE SHORTLY AFT THE SEABREEZE
DVLPS. RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A THIN VORT BAND POSITIONED JUST N OF THE
I-4 CORRIDOR THAT MAY PROVIDE WEAK MID LVL DYNAMIC SUPPORT...BUT A
H30-H20 ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE NRN BAHAMAS IS NOT CLOSE
ENOUGH TO GENERATE ANY UPR LVL DIVERGENCE.

MOISTURE PROFILE LOOKS A LITTLE SKETCHY AS H100-H70 MEAN RH VALUES
ACRS THE PENINSULA ARE AOB 60PCT WITH AVG DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARND
7C. THE H85-H50 LYR LOOKS A LITTLE BETTER WITH RH VALUES BTWN 60-
70PCT...AND DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS BTWN 5-7C THAT SHOULD SUSTAIN THE
DIURNAL CU FIELD ONCE IT DVLPS.

THE 03/00Z MOS NUMERICAL GUIDANCE CAME IN POPS BLO 20PCT AREAWIDE.
DESPITE THE LACK OF DYNAMIC SUPPORT...WEAK ENVIRONMENTAL FLOW...AND
RELATIVELY DRY MOISTURE PROFILE...THESE SEEM A BIT TOO LOW. THE 3KM
WRF AND HRRR MODELS BOTH HINT AT SEABREEZE CONVERGENCE OCCURRING
JUST S OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR LATE THIS AFTN WITH STRONGEST CONVECTION
CONFINED TO THE INTERIOR. WILL GO WITH A 30-20PCT NW TO SE BREAKDOWN
AS SLIGHTLY HIGHER MOISTURE IS POSITIONED OVER THE NRN PENINSULA.
PRECIP SHOULD BURN OUT BY MID EVENING...AS IT USUALLY DOES IN A HIGH
CAPE/LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. LIGHT WINDS AND NEAR FULL SUN WILL ALLOW
MAX TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE L/M90S. OVERNIGHT MINS HOLDING IN THE
L/M70S.

SAT-MON...POSITIVELY TILTED RUNNING FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE
OH VLY TO THE LWR MS VLY WILL SLIDE EWD WITH THE SRN PORTION OF THE
TROUGH BREAKING OFF AND LAGGING OVER THE SERN CONUS THIS WEEKEND
BEFORE STARTING TO LIFT OUT TO THE NE ON MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE
LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER THE CENTRAL PENINSULA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH SWRLY STEERING LYR FLOW TENDING TO PUSH ACTIVITY BACK TOWARD
THE EAST COAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THIS TYPE OF
REGIME CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE ERN SIDE OF THE PENINSULA FOR DIURNAL
CONVECTION. POPS REFLECT THIS...AVERAGING 50-60 PCT WHICH IS ABOUT
10-20 PCT ABOVE EARLY JULY CLIMO. TEMPS WILL AVERAGE CLOSE TO NORMAL.

TUE-THU..GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME DISPARITY IN HOW MUCH MID
LEVEL RIDGING BUILD BACK INTO THE MID ATLC/SERN CONUS AND FL FROM
MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. THE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE TOWARD THIS END
WHILE THE ECM SHOWS ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHING MOVING INTO THE
ERN CONUS AND ERODING THE WRN PORTION OF THE RIDGE. BOTH MODELS
INDICATE A TUTT-TYPE LOW REACHING THE BAHAMAS ON WED AND
EITHER MOVING INTO SE FL (ECM) OR ACROSS THE BREADTH OF SOUTH FL
(GFS) ON THU. WOULD EXPECT TO SEE SOME SUPPRESSION OF DIURNAL
CONVECTION ON THE CONVERGENT/SUBSIDENT FORWARD/W-NW FLANK OF THIS
FEATURE BEGINNING SOMETIME IN THE WED NIGHT-THU NIGHT TIME FRAME.
FCST GRIDS SHOW CLIMO POPS TUE TRENDING SLIGHTLY LOWER FOR WED-THU
HOWEVER POPS COULD BE A LITTLE LOWER THAN ADVERTISED ON ONE OR BOTH
OF THOSE DAYS DEPENDING ON THE MOVEMENT OF THE TUTT LOW. TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...SFC WINDS: THRU 03/13Z...S/SW 2-4KTS. BTWN 03/13Z-
03/16Z...S OF KVRB-KOBE BCMG S/SE 4-7KTS...N OF KVRB-KOBE S/SW 3-
6KTS. BTWN 03/16Z-03/18Z...COASTAL SITES BCMG E/SE 7-11KTS CONTG
THRU 04/00Z. BTWN 03/18Z-03/20Z...INTERIOR SITES BCMG S/SE 6-9KTS
CONTG THRU 04/00Z. BTWN 04/00Z-04/06Z...BCMG S/SE 2-4KTS ALL SITES.

THRU 04/12Z WX/VSBYS/CIGS...BTWN 03/16Z-04/03Z...W OF KMLB-KOBE SCT
IFR TSRAS...E OF KMLB-KOBE ISOLD TSRAS. BTWN 03/21Z-03/24Z SLGT CHC
+TSRAS VCNTY OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR W OF KSFB.

&&

.MARINE... TODAY-TONIGHT...RIDGE AXIS OVER CNTRL FL WILL MAINTAIN A
LIGHT TO GENTLE SRLY BREEZE OVER THE LCL ATLC WATERS...WINDS BCMG
E/SE NEAR THE COAST EACH AFTN WITH THE FORMATION OF THE EAST COAST
SEA BREEZE. SEAS GENERALLY 2-3FT.

SAT-TUE...BOTH THE NWPS AND WNWAVE FLAVORS OF WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE
APPEAR TO BE BACK TO SUMMER-LONG BIAS OF GENERATING PEAK SEAS
AVERAGING ABOUT A FT HIGHER THAN REALITY. POSITION OF RIDGE AXIS
INVOF CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL KEEP PEAK WINDS
NEAR 15KT WITH SEAS AROUND 3FT WELL OFFSHORE...2FT OR A LITTLE LESS
NEAR SHORE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  92  72  90  72 /  30  30  40  30
MCO  94  73  93  74 /  30  30  60  30
MLB  94  73  90  74 /  20  20  30  30
VRB  92  72  89  73 /  20  20  40  30
LEE  93  75  93  76 /  30  30  60  30
SFB  95  73  92  73 /  30  30  50  30
ORL  94  74  92  75 /  30  30  60  30
FPR  91  73  90  72 /  20  20  40  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...BRAGAW
LONG TERM....CRISTALDI





000
FXUS62 KMLB 030825
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
415 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...

ATLC RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE NRN BAHAMAS TO THE NE GOMEX WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE...BLOCKED BY A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES OVER THE
MIDWEST/MID SOUTH WITH AN ADJACENT FRONTAL TROF EXTENDING UP ERN
SEABOARD FROM THE CAROLINAS NWD. WINDS THRU THE H100-H50 LYR AOB
10KTS WILL PROMOTE THE FORMATION OF THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE AROUND
MIDDAY...BUT ALSO WILL RESULT IN VERY SLOW STORM MOTION THAT WILL
LIMIT STORM COVERAGE.

LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AS NONE OF THE THE 00Z
PENINSULA RAOBS SHOWED ANY MEANINGFUL INVERSIONS THRU THE H100-H70
LYR...DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD INITIALIZE SHORTLY AFT THE SEABREEZE
DVLPS. RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A THIN VORT BAND POSITIONED JUST N OF THE
I-4 CORRIDOR THAT MAY PROVIDE WEAK MID LVL DYNAMIC SUPPORT...BUT A
H30-H20 ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE NRN BAHAMAS IS NOT CLOSE
ENOUGH TO GENERATE ANY UPR LVL DIVERGENCE.

MOISTURE PROFILE LOOKS A LITTLE SKETCHY AS H100-H70 MEAN RH VALUES
ACRS THE PENINSULA ARE AOB 60PCT WITH AVG DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARND
7C. THE H85-H50 LYR LOOKS A LITTLE BETTER WITH RH VALUES BTWN 60-
70PCT...AND DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS BTWN 5-7C THAT SHOULD SUSTAIN THE
DIURNAL CU FIELD ONCE IT DVLPS.

THE 03/00Z MOS NUMERICAL GUIDANCE CAME IN POPS BLO 20PCT AREAWIDE.
DESPITE THE LACK OF DYNAMIC SUPPORT...WEAK ENVIRONMENTAL FLOW...AND
RELATIVELY DRY MOISTURE PROFILE...THESE SEEM A BIT TOO LOW. THE 3KM
WRF AND HRRR MODELS BOTH HINT AT SEABREEZE CONVERGENCE OCCURRING
JUST S OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR LATE THIS AFTN WITH STRONGEST CONVECTION
CONFINED TO THE INTERIOR. WILL GO WITH A 30-20PCT NW TO SE BREAKDOWN
AS SLIGHTLY HIGHER MOISTURE IS POSITIONED OVER THE NRN PENINSULA.
PRECIP SHOULD BURN OUT BY MID EVENING...AS IT USUALLY DOES IN A HIGH
CAPE/LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. LIGHT WINDS AND NEAR FULL SUN WILL ALLOW
MAX TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE L/M90S. OVERNIGHT MINS HOLDING IN THE
L/M70S.

SAT-MON...POSITIVELY TILTED RUNNING FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE
OH VLY TO THE LWR MS VLY WILL SLIDE EWD WITH THE SRN PORTION OF THE
TROUGH BREAKING OFF AND LAGGING OVER THE SERN CONUS THIS WEEKEND
BEFORE STARTING TO LIFT OUT TO THE NE ON MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE
LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER THE CENTRAL PENINSULA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH SWRLY STEERING LYR FLOW TENDING TO PUSH ACTIVITY BACK TOWARD
THE EAST COAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THIS TYPE OF
REGIME CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE ERN SIDE OF THE PENINSULA FOR DIURNAL
CONVECTION. POPS REFLECT THIS...AVERAGING 50-60 PCT WHICH IS ABOUT
10-20 PCT ABOVE EARLY JULY CLIMO. TEMPS WILL AVERAGE CLOSE TO NORMAL.

TUE-THU..GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME DISPARITY IN HOW MUCH MID
LEVEL RIDGING BUILD BACK INTO THE MID ATLC/SERN CONUS AND FL FROM
MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. THE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE TOWARD THIS END
WHILE THE ECM SHOWS ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHING MOVING INTO THE
ERN CONUS AND ERODING THE WRN PORTION OF THE RIDGE. BOTH MODELS
INDICATE A TUTT-TYPE LOW REACHING THE BAHAMAS ON WED AND
EITHER MOVING INTO SE FL (ECM) OR ACROSS THE BREADTH OF SOUTH FL
(GFS) ON THU. WOULD EXPECT TO SEE SOME SUPPRESSION OF DIURNAL
CONVECTION ON THE CONVERGENT/SUBSIDENT FORWARD/W-NW FLANK OF THIS
FEATURE BEGINNING SOMETIME IN THE WED NIGHT-THU NIGHT TIME FRAME.
FCST GRIDS SHOW CLIMO POPS TUE TRENDING SLIGHTLY LOWER FOR WED-THU
HOWEVER POPS COULD BE A LITTLE LOWER THAN ADVERTISED ON ONE OR BOTH
OF THOSE DAYS DEPENDING ON THE MOVEMENT OF THE TUTT LOW. TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...SFC WINDS: THRU 03/13Z...S/SW 2-4KTS. BTWN 03/13Z-
03/16Z...S OF KVRB-KOBE BCMG S/SE 4-7KTS...N OF KVRB-KOBE S/SW 3-
6KTS. BTWN 03/16Z-03/18Z...COASTAL SITES BCMG E/SE 7-11KTS CONTG
THRU 04/00Z. BTWN 03/18Z-03/20Z...INTERIOR SITES BCMG S/SE 6-9KTS
CONTG THRU 04/00Z. BTWN 04/00Z-04/06Z...BCMG S/SE 2-4KTS ALL SITES.

THRU 04/12Z WX/VSBYS/CIGS...BTWN 03/16Z-04/03Z...W OF KMLB-KOBE SCT
IFR TSRAS...E OF KMLB-KOBE ISOLD TSRAS. BTWN 03/21Z-03/24Z SLGT CHC
+TSRAS VCNTY OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR W OF KSFB.

&&

.MARINE... TODAY-TONIGHT...RIDGE AXIS OVER CNTRL FL WILL MAINTAIN A
LIGHT TO GENTLE SRLY BREEZE OVER THE LCL ATLC WATERS...WINDS BCMG
E/SE NEAR THE COAST EACH AFTN WITH THE FORMATION OF THE EAST COAST
SEA BREEZE. SEAS GENERALLY 2-3FT.

SAT-TUE...BOTH THE NWPS AND WNWAVE FLAVORS OF WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE
APPEAR TO BE BACK TO SUMMER-LONG BIAS OF GENERATING PEAK SEAS
AVERAGING ABOUT A FT HIGHER THAN REALITY. POSITION OF RIDGE AXIS
INVOF CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL KEEP PEAK WINDS
NEAR 15KT WITH SEAS AROUND 3FT WELL OFFSHORE...2FT OR A LITTLE LESS
NEAR SHORE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  92  72  90  72 /  30  30  40  30
MCO  94  73  93  74 /  30  30  60  30
MLB  94  73  90  74 /  20  20  30  30
VRB  92  72  89  73 /  20  20  40  30
LEE  93  75  93  76 /  30  30  60  30
SFB  95  73  92  73 /  30  30  50  30
ORL  94  74  92  75 /  30  30  60  30
FPR  91  73  90  72 /  20  20  40  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...BRAGAW
LONG TERM....CRISTALDI




000
FXUS62 KMLB 030127
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
927 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT-FRI...FEW LINGERING BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS IN THE SOUTH THAT
WERE GENERATING ISOLATED CELLS WILL END BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

OTHERWISE...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LOCAL PATTERN WITH SURFACE TO MID
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND A CONTINUED WEST/SOUTHWEST
WIND PROFILE FOR MOST OF THE REGION.  THE WEST TO EAST STEERING FLOW
FRI AFTERNOON LOOKS TO BE AROUND 10 KNOTS IN THE NORTH BUT STEERING
WILL BE WEAK TO NIL IN THE SOUTH.  MOISTURE AND LAPSE RATES SEEM TO
BE SIMILAR TO TODAY...BUT THE 18Z GFS HARDLY GENERATED ANY PRECIP
FOR FRI. THEREFORE KEEPING NEAR PERSISTENCE WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON
TO EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS SEEMS REASONABLE.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR AT TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. SCT TSRA WILL REDEVELOP ON
THE SEA BREEZES ABOUT 16Z-20Z FRI AND LINGER UNTIL AROUND 00Z.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT-INDEPENDENCE DAY WEEKEND...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WIND/SEA
CONCERNS BUT IT IS THE THUNDERSTORM SEASON!  SO MARINERS ON INLAND
LAKES SHOULD AGAIN BE PREPARED FOR AFTERNOON STORMS.  WEST TO EAST
STEERING WILL BE WEAK BUT SOME OF THE STORMS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
COAST INTO THE NEAR SHORE ATLANTIC DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...
ESPECIALLY SEBASTIAN INLET NORTHWARD.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

LASCODY/SEDLOCK




000
FXUS62 KMLB 030127
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
927 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT-FRI...FEW LINGERING BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS IN THE SOUTH THAT
WERE GENERATING ISOLATED CELLS WILL END BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

OTHERWISE...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LOCAL PATTERN WITH SURFACE TO MID
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND A CONTINUED WEST/SOUTHWEST
WIND PROFILE FOR MOST OF THE REGION.  THE WEST TO EAST STEERING FLOW
FRI AFTERNOON LOOKS TO BE AROUND 10 KNOTS IN THE NORTH BUT STEERING
WILL BE WEAK TO NIL IN THE SOUTH.  MOISTURE AND LAPSE RATES SEEM TO
BE SIMILAR TO TODAY...BUT THE 18Z GFS HARDLY GENERATED ANY PRECIP
FOR FRI. THEREFORE KEEPING NEAR PERSISTENCE WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON
TO EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS SEEMS REASONABLE.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR AT TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. SCT TSRA WILL REDEVELOP ON
THE SEA BREEZES ABOUT 16Z-20Z FRI AND LINGER UNTIL AROUND 00Z.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT-INDEPENDENCE DAY WEEKEND...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WIND/SEA
CONCERNS BUT IT IS THE THUNDERSTORM SEASON!  SO MARINERS ON INLAND
LAKES SHOULD AGAIN BE PREPARED FOR AFTERNOON STORMS.  WEST TO EAST
STEERING WILL BE WEAK BUT SOME OF THE STORMS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
COAST INTO THE NEAR SHORE ATLANTIC DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...
ESPECIALLY SEBASTIAN INLET NORTHWARD.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

LASCODY/SEDLOCK





000
FXUS62 KMLB 022019
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
419 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...

THRU TONIGHT...BOUNDARY COLLISIONS WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS LIGHTNING STORMS THROUGH EARLY EVE FOCUSED SOUTH AND EAST
OF ORLANDO. STORMS ARE EASILY PRODUCING GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS
35-40 MPH WHICH WILL BE A HAZARD TO BOATERS. LATE MORNING CAPE
SOUNDING SHOWED 500 MB TEMPS ABOUT -9C WHICH IS FAIRLY
COLD/UNSTABLE ESP COMBINED WITH THE STRONG SFC HEATING AND
SEASONABLE ATMOS MOISTURE. SO AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM IS
POSSIBLE ALONG A BOUNDARY COLLISION...PRIMARILY BREVARD COUNTY
NEXT 2 HOURS OR SO.

INDEPENDENCE DAY WEEKEND...
TROFING PATTERN OVER THE ERN CONUS WILL PERSIST AS A POSITIVE PNA
PHASE SPANNING THE CONTINENT HAS A FIRM GRIP ON THE WX PATTERN IS
SHOWING NO SIGN OF BREAKING DOWN ANYTIME SOON: NRN BRANCH OF THE
H30-H20 JET IS RATHER WEAK WITH MAX WINDS LARGELY AOB 70KTS...MOST
OF WHICH IS POSITIONED WELL N OF THE CANADIAN BORDER...CLOSEST
100KT JET STREAK THAT COULD UPROOT THE DEEP RIDGE OVER THE WRN
CONUS IS CURRENTLY OVER THE WEST PAC AND NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT
THE CONUS UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK. A FRONTAL TROF EXTENDING FROM THE
MID ATLC TO THE MIDWEST IS EMBEDDED WITHIN DEEP WRLY FLOW THAT IS
LARGELY PARALLEL TO ITS ORIENTATION. THE BNDRY WILL DRIFT INTO THE
MID SOUTH/CAROLINA COAST ON FRI...BUT WITHOUT ANY SOURCE OF STRONG
MERIDIONAL FLOW...IT WILL STALL AND GRADUALLY WASH OUT OVER THE
WEEKEND BEFORE IT CAN PUSH INTO THE DEEP SOUTH.

PERSISTENT TROFING ACRS THE ERN CONUS WILL KEEP THE ATLC RIDGE AXIS
FROM DRIFTING MUCH FURTHER N THAN THE CENTRAL FL PENINSULA THRU THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN A DEEP BUT WEAK S/SWRLY FLOW
THRU THE COLUMN WITH H100-H50 MEAN WINDS AOB 10KTS...H50-H20 MEAN
WINDS 10-15KTS.

WHILE SUCH FLOW REGIMES TEND TO FAVOR THE E HALF OF THE FL PENINSULA
FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION...THE FLOW WILL BE FLOW WILL BE TOO LIGHT FOR
STORM MOTION TO EXCEED 10MPH...THUS COVERAGE WILL BE AOB 50PCT.
REGIONAL MOISTURE IS SUFFICIENT FOR SCT POPS WITH MEAN RH AOA 60PCT
THRU THE H100-H50 LYR. LOW/MID LVL CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WILL BE
WEAK AS THE TROFING PATTERN PREVENTS THE ATLC RIDGE AXIS FROM
STRENGTHENING. H70 TEMPS BTWN 7-8C AND H50 TEMPS ARND -9C WILL YIELD
MAX LAPSE RATES BTWN 6.5-7.0C/KM THRU THE LYR. RIDGE AXIS WILL BLOCK
OUT MOST MID LVL VORT LOBES WHILE H30-H20 WINDS AOB 20KTS WILL
PRODUCE WEAK UPR LVL DIVERGENCE AT BEST.

WILL GO WITH A 30-50 POP COVERAGE...HIGHEST ALONG AND N OF THE I-4
CORRIDOR...LOWEST TREASURE COAST AS WEAK SW FLOW WILL FOCUS THE LAKE
OKEECHOBEE SHADOW ACRS THAT REGION. TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABV AVG AS IS
COMMON IN SW FLOW...MAXES IN THE L/M90S...MINS L/M70S.

MON-WED...
CPC/MID RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO POSITIVE PNA PHASE INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK BEFORE DAMPENING OUT THE ERN TROF BY MIDWEEK. THE ATLC
RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER ACRS THE CNTRL/SRN FL PENINSULA
WITH WEAK S/SWRLY FLOW PREVAILING THRU THE LOW/MID LYRS OF THE
COLUMN. WILL KEEP DAILY POPS IN THE 30-50PCT RANGE THRU THE DAYTIME
PDS...CHC/SLGT CHC THRU THE EVNGS. TEMPS CONSISTENT WITH MID FL
SUMMER...MAXES L/M90S AND MINS L/M70S.

&&

.AVIATION...
TSRA WITH GUSTY WINDS 30-35 KTS WILL AFFECT TERMINALS TIX-MLB DUE
TO OUTFLOW/SEA BREEZE COLLISION 20-24Z. RESIDUAL RAINS AND
EMBEDDED TSRA WILL CONTINUE TIL 02Z OR SO...THEN VFR THRU AT LEAST
14Z. SCT TSRA WILL REDEVELOP 16Z-20Z FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...STORMS WILL PUSH OFFSHORE THRU EARLY EVE EASILY
PRODUCING WIND GUSTS OF 30 KNOTS MAINLY NORTH OF SEABASTIAN INLET.
OTHERWISE...THE SE SEA BREEZE WILL VEER TO THE S AND SW AFTER
SUNSET WITH SEAS 1-2 FT.

INDEPENDENCE DAY WEEKEND...
ATLC RIDGE AXIS WILL DRIFT ACRS THE CNTRL/SRN FL PENINSULA...
MAINTAINING A GENTLE TO MODERATE SRLY BREEZE OVER THE LCL CSTL
WATERS...BCMG SE NEAR THE COAST EACH AFTN WITH THE FORMATION OF THE
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE. SEAS GENERALLY 2-3FT...UP TO 4FT OVER THE
OFFSHORE LEG N OF SEBASTIAN INLET. PRIMARY MARINE THREAT WILL BE
AFTN/EVNG TSRAS MVG OFFSHORE THAT WILL BE CAPABLE OF GENERATING SFC
WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35KTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  73  92  75  91 /  40  30  20  40
MCO  74  94  75  93 /  50  30  30  50
MLB  74  90  75  91 /  40  30  20  30
VRB  73  91  74  91 /  20  30  20  30
LEE  76  93  77  93 /  20  30  30  50
SFB  75  94  76  93 /  40  30  30  50
ORL  76  93  77  93 /  40  30  30  50
FPR  73  91  73  90 /  20  30  20  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

KELLY/SPRATT




000
FXUS62 KMLB 022019
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
419 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...

THRU TONIGHT...BOUNDARY COLLISIONS WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS LIGHTNING STORMS THROUGH EARLY EVE FOCUSED SOUTH AND EAST
OF ORLANDO. STORMS ARE EASILY PRODUCING GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS
35-40 MPH WHICH WILL BE A HAZARD TO BOATERS. LATE MORNING CAPE
SOUNDING SHOWED 500 MB TEMPS ABOUT -9C WHICH IS FAIRLY
COLD/UNSTABLE ESP COMBINED WITH THE STRONG SFC HEATING AND
SEASONABLE ATMOS MOISTURE. SO AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM IS
POSSIBLE ALONG A BOUNDARY COLLISION...PRIMARILY BREVARD COUNTY
NEXT 2 HOURS OR SO.

INDEPENDENCE DAY WEEKEND...
TROFING PATTERN OVER THE ERN CONUS WILL PERSIST AS A POSITIVE PNA
PHASE SPANNING THE CONTINENT HAS A FIRM GRIP ON THE WX PATTERN IS
SHOWING NO SIGN OF BREAKING DOWN ANYTIME SOON: NRN BRANCH OF THE
H30-H20 JET IS RATHER WEAK WITH MAX WINDS LARGELY AOB 70KTS...MOST
OF WHICH IS POSITIONED WELL N OF THE CANADIAN BORDER...CLOSEST
100KT JET STREAK THAT COULD UPROOT THE DEEP RIDGE OVER THE WRN
CONUS IS CURRENTLY OVER THE WEST PAC AND NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT
THE CONUS UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK. A FRONTAL TROF EXTENDING FROM THE
MID ATLC TO THE MIDWEST IS EMBEDDED WITHIN DEEP WRLY FLOW THAT IS
LARGELY PARALLEL TO ITS ORIENTATION. THE BNDRY WILL DRIFT INTO THE
MID SOUTH/CAROLINA COAST ON FRI...BUT WITHOUT ANY SOURCE OF STRONG
MERIDIONAL FLOW...IT WILL STALL AND GRADUALLY WASH OUT OVER THE
WEEKEND BEFORE IT CAN PUSH INTO THE DEEP SOUTH.

PERSISTENT TROFING ACRS THE ERN CONUS WILL KEEP THE ATLC RIDGE AXIS
FROM DRIFTING MUCH FURTHER N THAN THE CENTRAL FL PENINSULA THRU THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN A DEEP BUT WEAK S/SWRLY FLOW
THRU THE COLUMN WITH H100-H50 MEAN WINDS AOB 10KTS...H50-H20 MEAN
WINDS 10-15KTS.

WHILE SUCH FLOW REGIMES TEND TO FAVOR THE E HALF OF THE FL PENINSULA
FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION...THE FLOW WILL BE FLOW WILL BE TOO LIGHT FOR
STORM MOTION TO EXCEED 10MPH...THUS COVERAGE WILL BE AOB 50PCT.
REGIONAL MOISTURE IS SUFFICIENT FOR SCT POPS WITH MEAN RH AOA 60PCT
THRU THE H100-H50 LYR. LOW/MID LVL CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WILL BE
WEAK AS THE TROFING PATTERN PREVENTS THE ATLC RIDGE AXIS FROM
STRENGTHENING. H70 TEMPS BTWN 7-8C AND H50 TEMPS ARND -9C WILL YIELD
MAX LAPSE RATES BTWN 6.5-7.0C/KM THRU THE LYR. RIDGE AXIS WILL BLOCK
OUT MOST MID LVL VORT LOBES WHILE H30-H20 WINDS AOB 20KTS WILL
PRODUCE WEAK UPR LVL DIVERGENCE AT BEST.

WILL GO WITH A 30-50 POP COVERAGE...HIGHEST ALONG AND N OF THE I-4
CORRIDOR...LOWEST TREASURE COAST AS WEAK SW FLOW WILL FOCUS THE LAKE
OKEECHOBEE SHADOW ACRS THAT REGION. TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABV AVG AS IS
COMMON IN SW FLOW...MAXES IN THE L/M90S...MINS L/M70S.

MON-WED...
CPC/MID RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO POSITIVE PNA PHASE INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK BEFORE DAMPENING OUT THE ERN TROF BY MIDWEEK. THE ATLC
RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER ACRS THE CNTRL/SRN FL PENINSULA
WITH WEAK S/SWRLY FLOW PREVAILING THRU THE LOW/MID LYRS OF THE
COLUMN. WILL KEEP DAILY POPS IN THE 30-50PCT RANGE THRU THE DAYTIME
PDS...CHC/SLGT CHC THRU THE EVNGS. TEMPS CONSISTENT WITH MID FL
SUMMER...MAXES L/M90S AND MINS L/M70S.

&&

.AVIATION...
TSRA WITH GUSTY WINDS 30-35 KTS WILL AFFECT TERMINALS TIX-MLB DUE
TO OUTFLOW/SEA BREEZE COLLISION 20-24Z. RESIDUAL RAINS AND
EMBEDDED TSRA WILL CONTINUE TIL 02Z OR SO...THEN VFR THRU AT LEAST
14Z. SCT TSRA WILL REDEVELOP 16Z-20Z FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...STORMS WILL PUSH OFFSHORE THRU EARLY EVE EASILY
PRODUCING WIND GUSTS OF 30 KNOTS MAINLY NORTH OF SEABASTIAN INLET.
OTHERWISE...THE SE SEA BREEZE WILL VEER TO THE S AND SW AFTER
SUNSET WITH SEAS 1-2 FT.

INDEPENDENCE DAY WEEKEND...
ATLC RIDGE AXIS WILL DRIFT ACRS THE CNTRL/SRN FL PENINSULA...
MAINTAINING A GENTLE TO MODERATE SRLY BREEZE OVER THE LCL CSTL
WATERS...BCMG SE NEAR THE COAST EACH AFTN WITH THE FORMATION OF THE
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE. SEAS GENERALLY 2-3FT...UP TO 4FT OVER THE
OFFSHORE LEG N OF SEBASTIAN INLET. PRIMARY MARINE THREAT WILL BE
AFTN/EVNG TSRAS MVG OFFSHORE THAT WILL BE CAPABLE OF GENERATING SFC
WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35KTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  73  92  75  91 /  40  30  20  40
MCO  74  94  75  93 /  50  30  30  50
MLB  74  90  75  91 /  40  30  20  30
VRB  73  91  74  91 /  20  30  20  30
LEE  76  93  77  93 /  20  30  30  50
SFB  75  94  76  93 /  40  30  30  50
ORL  76  93  77  93 /  40  30  30  50
FPR  73  91  73  90 /  20  30  20  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

KELLY/SPRATT





000
FXUS62 KMLB 021516 AAA
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
11 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.DISCUSSION... THE CURRENT PATTERN WITH BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS WL CONTINUE. W TO SW STEERING FLOW 10 TO 15 KT
ALONG WITH SEASONABLE MOISTURE AND SFC HEATING WILL LEAD TO
AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED LIGHTNING STORMS. A MODEST SW
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT OF THE EAST COAST BREEZE
BOUNDARY BY MID AFTERNOON ALONG THE ENTIRE EC FL COAST. SCT STORM
COVERAGE CAN BE EXPECTED INITIALLY INLAND FROM THE COAST ASSOCD WITH
THE SEA BREEZE. ANOTHER FAVORED AREA WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH AS SCT
STORMS PUSH E/NE FROM THE GULF COAST BY EARLY AFTN. OUTFLOWS FROM
THIS CONVECTION WILL INTERACT WITH THE SEA BREEZE LATER IN THE AFTN
OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN INTERIOR SECTIONS.

THE MAIN CONCERN WL BE FOR CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS AND LIGHTNING. SOME
STORMS WILL PUSH OFFSHORE THIS AFTN/EARLY EVE ESP VOLUSIA AND
BREVARD COUNTIES.

&&

.AVIATION... ISOLD TSRA WILL DEVELOP ALONG EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST WHICH COULD AFFECT MLB/VRB/FPR/SUA
THROUGH 19Z. ADDITIONAL TSRA WILL MOVE NE TWD NRN TERMINALS AND I-4
CORRIDOR (ISM-MCO-LEE-SFB) PRODUCING BRIEFLY MVFR CONDS. INCRSG CVG
OF TSRA WITH ISOLD IFR CONDS PSBL THROUGH 03/01Z. BECMG VFR AREA
WIDE AFT 03/03Z.

&&

.MARINE...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO CURRENT COASTAL WATERS FORECAST.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED OVER S FL WL BRING S/SW WINDS
NR 10 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS 2 TO 3 FT THROUGH THIS EVENING. AN
ONSHORE SEA BREEZE EXPECTED AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST FROM AROUND 2 PM
THROUGH 8 PM WITH CONDITIONS POSSIBLY INTERRUPTED BY OFFSHORE MOVING
STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND CHOPPY SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH STORMS INTO
EARLY EVENING MAINLY N OF SEBASTIAN INLET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  93  73  91  74 /  40  20  40  30
MCO  95  74  94  75 /  40  20  40  20
MLB  93  74  91  76 /  40  30  40  30
VRB  92  74  92  75 /  30  20  30  30
LEE  95  76  93  76 /  40  20  40  20
SFB  96  75  94  75 /  40  20  40  20
ORL  95  76  94  76 /  40  20  40  20
FPR  92  72  92  74 /  20  20  30  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

KELLY/SPRATT




000
FXUS62 KMLB 020831 AAA
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
432 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE CURRENT PATTERN WITH BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS WL CONTINUE. W TO SW STEERING FLOW AROUND 15 TO 20 KT ALONG
WITH AMPLE MOISTURE AND SFC HEATING WL LEAD TO AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT
OF SCATTERED LIGHTNING STORMS. A MODEST TO WEAK LL PRESSURE GRADIENT
WL LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT OF THE EAST COAST BREEZE BOUNDARY AND OTHER
LOCALIZED BOUNDARIES BY MID AFTERNOON. LOW TO MID RANGE SCT COVERAGE
CAN BE EXPECTED SOME WITH EARLY SHOWERS AND PERHAPS LATE MORNING
PCPN MOVING EWD FROM THE FL WEST COAST TO THE I-4 CORRIDOR WITH
AN INCREASE IN LIGHTNING STORMS ONCE BOUNDARIES INTERACT. THE MAIN
CONCERN WL BE FOR CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS AND LIGHTNING. EVENING
STORMS WILL TRANSITION TO THE COAST AND OFFSHORE DURING THE
EVENING AND SHOULD END OVER LAND FROM AROUND 10 TO 11 PM WITH LOSS
OF HEATING.

INDEPENDENCE DAY WEEKEND...
TROFING PATTERN OVER THE ERN CONUS WILL PERSIST AS A POSITIVE PNA
PHASE SPANNING THE CONTINENT HAS A FIRM GRIP ON THE WX PATTERN IS
SHOWING NO SIGN OF BREAKING DOWN ANYTIME SOON: NRN BRANCH OF THE
H30-H20 JET IS RATHER WEAK WITH MAX WINDS LARGELY AOB 70KTS...MOST
OF WHICH IS POSITIONED WELL N OF THE CANADIAN BORDER...CLOSEST
100KT JET STREAK THAT COULD UPROOT THE DEEP RIDGE OVER THE WRN
CONUS IS CURRENTLY OVER THE WEST PAC AND NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT
THE CONUS UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK. A FRONTAL TROF EXTENDING FROM THE
MID ATLC TO THE MIDWEST IS EMBEDDED WITHIN DEEP WRLY FLOW THAT IS
LARGELY PARALLEL TO ITS ORIENTATION. THE BNDRY WILL DRIFT INTO THE
MID SOUTH/CAROLINA COAST ON FRI...BUT WITHOUT ANY SOURCE OF STRONG
MERIDIONAL FLOW...IT WILL STALL AND GRADUALLY WASH OUT OVER THE
WEEKEND BEFORE IT CAN PUSH INTO THE DEEP SOUTH.

PERSISTENT TROFING ACRS THE ERN CONUS WILL KEEP THE ATLC RIDGE AXIS
FROM DRIFTING MUCH FURTHER N THAN THE CENTRAL FL PENINSULA THRU THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN A DEEP BUT WEAK S/SWRLY FLOW
THRU THE COLUMN WITH H100-H50 MEAN WINDS AOB 10KTS...H50-H20 MEAN
WINDS 10-15KTS.

WHILE SUCH FLOW REGIMES TEND TO FAVOR THE E HALF OF THE FL PENINSULA
FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION...THE FLOW WILL BE FLOW WILL BE TOO LIGHT FOR
STORM MOTION TO EXCEED 10MPH...THUS COVERAGE WILL BE AOB 50PCT.
REGIONAL MOISTURE IS SUFFICIENT FOR SCT POPS WITH MEAN RH AOA 60PCT
THRU THE H100-H50 LYR. LOW/MID LVL CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WILL BE
WEAK AS THE TROFING PATTERN PREVENTS THE ATLC RIDGE AXIS FROM
STRENGTHENING. H70 TEMPS BTWN 7-8C AND H50 TEMPS ARND -9C WILL YIELD
MAX LAPSE RATES BTWN 6.5-7.0C/KM THRU THE LYR. RIDGE AXIS WILL BLOCK
OUT MOST MID LVL VORT LOBES WHILE H30-H20 WINDS AOB 20KTS WILL
PRODUCE WEAK UPR LVL DIVERGENCE AT BEST.

WILL GO WITH A 30-50 POP COVERAGE...HIGHEST ALONG AND N OF THE I-4
CORRIDOR...LOWEST TREASURE COAST AS WEAK SW FLOW WILL FOCUS THE LAKE
OKEECHOBEE SHADOW ACRS THAT REGION. TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABV AVG AS IS
COMMON IN SW FLOW...MAXES IN THE L/M90S...MINS L/M70S.

MON-WED...
CPC/MID RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO POSITIVE PNA PHASE INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK BEFORE DAMPENING OUT THE ERN TROF BY MIDWEEK. THE ATLC
RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER ACRS THE CNTRL/SRN FL PENINSULA
WITH WEAK S/SWRLY FLOW PREVAILING THRU THE LOW/MID LYRS OF THE
COLUMN. WILL KEEP DAILY POPS IN THE 30-50PCT RANGE THRU THE DAYTIME
PDS...CHC/SLGT CHC THRU THE EVNGS. TEMPS CONSISTENT WITH MID FL
SUMMER...MAXES L/M90S AND MINS L/M70S.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDS AREAWIDE THROUGH AROUND 02/15Z. ISOLD SHRA/TS MOVING
INTO NRN LOCATIONS AND I-4 CORRIDOR NR ISM-MCO-LEE-SFB PRODUCING
BRIEFLY MVFR CONDS. FM 02/17-02/21Z INCRSG CVG OF SHRA/TS WITH
MVFR PRIMARY IN AFFECTED AREAS ALNG WITH ISOLD IFR CONDS PSBL IN
TS THROUGH 03/01Z. BECMG VFR AREA WIDE AFT 03/02Z.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED OVER S FL WL BRING S/SW WINDS
NR 10 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS 2 TO 3 FT THROUGH THIS EVENING. AN
ONSHORE SEABREEZE EXPECTED AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST FROM AROUND 2 PM
THROUGH 8 PM WITH CONDITIONS POSSIBLY INTERRUPTED BY OFFSHORE
MOVING STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND CHOPPY SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH
STORMS INTO EARLY EVENING MAINLY N OF SEBASTIAN INLET.

INDEPENDENCE DAY WEEKEND...
ATLC RIDGE AXIS WILL DRIFT ACRS THE CNTRL/SRN FL PENINSULA...
MAINTAINING A GENTLE TO MODERATE SRLY BREEZE OVER THE LCL CSTL
WATERS...BCMG SE NEAR THE COAST EACH AFTN WITH THE FORMATION OF THE
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE. SEAS GENERALLY 2-3FT...UP TO 4FT OVER THE
OFFSHORE LEG N OF SEBASTIAN INLET. PRIMARY MARINE THREAT WILL BE
AFTN/EVNG TSRAS MVG OFFSHORE THAT WILL BE CAPABLE OF GENERATING SFC
WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35KTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  93  73  91  74 /  40  20  40  30
MCO  95  74  94  75 /  40  20  40  20
MLB  93  74  91  76 /  40  30  40  30
VRB  92  74  92  75 /  30  20  30  30
LEE  95  76  93  76 /  40  20  40  20
SFB  96  75  94  75 /  40  20  40  20
ORL  95  76  94  76 /  40  20  40  20
FPR  92  72  92  74 /  20  20  30  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PENDERGRAST
LONG TERM....BRAGAW




000
FXUS62 KMLB 020831 AAA
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
432 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE CURRENT PATTERN WITH BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS WL CONTINUE. W TO SW STEERING FLOW AROUND 15 TO 20 KT ALONG
WITH AMPLE MOISTURE AND SFC HEATING WL LEAD TO AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT
OF SCATTERED LIGHTNING STORMS. A MODEST TO WEAK LL PRESSURE GRADIENT
WL LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT OF THE EAST COAST BREEZE BOUNDARY AND OTHER
LOCALIZED BOUNDARIES BY MID AFTERNOON. LOW TO MID RANGE SCT COVERAGE
CAN BE EXPECTED SOME WITH EARLY SHOWERS AND PERHAPS LATE MORNING
PCPN MOVING EWD FROM THE FL WEST COAST TO THE I-4 CORRIDOR WITH
AN INCREASE IN LIGHTNING STORMS ONCE BOUNDARIES INTERACT. THE MAIN
CONCERN WL BE FOR CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS AND LIGHTNING. EVENING
STORMS WILL TRANSITION TO THE COAST AND OFFSHORE DURING THE
EVENING AND SHOULD END OVER LAND FROM AROUND 10 TO 11 PM WITH LOSS
OF HEATING.

INDEPENDENCE DAY WEEKEND...
TROFING PATTERN OVER THE ERN CONUS WILL PERSIST AS A POSITIVE PNA
PHASE SPANNING THE CONTINENT HAS A FIRM GRIP ON THE WX PATTERN IS
SHOWING NO SIGN OF BREAKING DOWN ANYTIME SOON: NRN BRANCH OF THE
H30-H20 JET IS RATHER WEAK WITH MAX WINDS LARGELY AOB 70KTS...MOST
OF WHICH IS POSITIONED WELL N OF THE CANADIAN BORDER...CLOSEST
100KT JET STREAK THAT COULD UPROOT THE DEEP RIDGE OVER THE WRN
CONUS IS CURRENTLY OVER THE WEST PAC AND NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT
THE CONUS UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK. A FRONTAL TROF EXTENDING FROM THE
MID ATLC TO THE MIDWEST IS EMBEDDED WITHIN DEEP WRLY FLOW THAT IS
LARGELY PARALLEL TO ITS ORIENTATION. THE BNDRY WILL DRIFT INTO THE
MID SOUTH/CAROLINA COAST ON FRI...BUT WITHOUT ANY SOURCE OF STRONG
MERIDIONAL FLOW...IT WILL STALL AND GRADUALLY WASH OUT OVER THE
WEEKEND BEFORE IT CAN PUSH INTO THE DEEP SOUTH.

PERSISTENT TROFING ACRS THE ERN CONUS WILL KEEP THE ATLC RIDGE AXIS
FROM DRIFTING MUCH FURTHER N THAN THE CENTRAL FL PENINSULA THRU THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN A DEEP BUT WEAK S/SWRLY FLOW
THRU THE COLUMN WITH H100-H50 MEAN WINDS AOB 10KTS...H50-H20 MEAN
WINDS 10-15KTS.

WHILE SUCH FLOW REGIMES TEND TO FAVOR THE E HALF OF THE FL PENINSULA
FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION...THE FLOW WILL BE FLOW WILL BE TOO LIGHT FOR
STORM MOTION TO EXCEED 10MPH...THUS COVERAGE WILL BE AOB 50PCT.
REGIONAL MOISTURE IS SUFFICIENT FOR SCT POPS WITH MEAN RH AOA 60PCT
THRU THE H100-H50 LYR. LOW/MID LVL CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WILL BE
WEAK AS THE TROFING PATTERN PREVENTS THE ATLC RIDGE AXIS FROM
STRENGTHENING. H70 TEMPS BTWN 7-8C AND H50 TEMPS ARND -9C WILL YIELD
MAX LAPSE RATES BTWN 6.5-7.0C/KM THRU THE LYR. RIDGE AXIS WILL BLOCK
OUT MOST MID LVL VORT LOBES WHILE H30-H20 WINDS AOB 20KTS WILL
PRODUCE WEAK UPR LVL DIVERGENCE AT BEST.

WILL GO WITH A 30-50 POP COVERAGE...HIGHEST ALONG AND N OF THE I-4
CORRIDOR...LOWEST TREASURE COAST AS WEAK SW FLOW WILL FOCUS THE LAKE
OKEECHOBEE SHADOW ACRS THAT REGION. TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABV AVG AS IS
COMMON IN SW FLOW...MAXES IN THE L/M90S...MINS L/M70S.

MON-WED...
CPC/MID RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO POSITIVE PNA PHASE INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK BEFORE DAMPENING OUT THE ERN TROF BY MIDWEEK. THE ATLC
RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER ACRS THE CNTRL/SRN FL PENINSULA
WITH WEAK S/SWRLY FLOW PREVAILING THRU THE LOW/MID LYRS OF THE
COLUMN. WILL KEEP DAILY POPS IN THE 30-50PCT RANGE THRU THE DAYTIME
PDS...CHC/SLGT CHC THRU THE EVNGS. TEMPS CONSISTENT WITH MID FL
SUMMER...MAXES L/M90S AND MINS L/M70S.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDS AREAWIDE THROUGH AROUND 02/15Z. ISOLD SHRA/TS MOVING
INTO NRN LOCATIONS AND I-4 CORRIDOR NR ISM-MCO-LEE-SFB PRODUCING
BRIEFLY MVFR CONDS. FM 02/17-02/21Z INCRSG CVG OF SHRA/TS WITH
MVFR PRIMARY IN AFFECTED AREAS ALNG WITH ISOLD IFR CONDS PSBL IN
TS THROUGH 03/01Z. BECMG VFR AREA WIDE AFT 03/02Z.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED OVER S FL WL BRING S/SW WINDS
NR 10 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS 2 TO 3 FT THROUGH THIS EVENING. AN
ONSHORE SEABREEZE EXPECTED AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST FROM AROUND 2 PM
THROUGH 8 PM WITH CONDITIONS POSSIBLY INTERRUPTED BY OFFSHORE
MOVING STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND CHOPPY SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH
STORMS INTO EARLY EVENING MAINLY N OF SEBASTIAN INLET.

INDEPENDENCE DAY WEEKEND...
ATLC RIDGE AXIS WILL DRIFT ACRS THE CNTRL/SRN FL PENINSULA...
MAINTAINING A GENTLE TO MODERATE SRLY BREEZE OVER THE LCL CSTL
WATERS...BCMG SE NEAR THE COAST EACH AFTN WITH THE FORMATION OF THE
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE. SEAS GENERALLY 2-3FT...UP TO 4FT OVER THE
OFFSHORE LEG N OF SEBASTIAN INLET. PRIMARY MARINE THREAT WILL BE
AFTN/EVNG TSRAS MVG OFFSHORE THAT WILL BE CAPABLE OF GENERATING SFC
WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35KTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  93  73  91  74 /  40  20  40  30
MCO  95  74  94  75 /  40  20  40  20
MLB  93  74  91  76 /  40  30  40  30
VRB  92  74  92  75 /  30  20  30  30
LEE  95  76  93  76 /  40  20  40  20
SFB  96  75  94  75 /  40  20  40  20
ORL  95  76  94  76 /  40  20  40  20
FPR  92  72  92  74 /  20  20  30  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PENDERGRAST
LONG TERM....BRAGAW





000
FXUS62 KMLB 020811
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
411 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE CURRENT PATTERN WITH BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS WL CONTINUE. W TO SW STEERING FLOW AROUND 15 TO 20 KT ALONG
WITH AMPLE MOISTURE AND SFC HEATING WL LEAD TO AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT
OF SCATTERED LIGHTNING STORMS. A MODEST TO WEAK LL PRESSURE GRADIENT
WL LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT OF THE EAST COAST BREEZE BOUNDARY AND OTHER
LOCALIZED BOUNDARIES BY MID AFTERNOON. LOW TO MID RANGE SCT COVERAGE
CAN BE EXPECTED SOME WITH EARLY SHOWERS AND PERHAPS LATE MORNING
PCPN MOVING EWD FROM THE FL WEST COAST TO THE I-4 CORRIDOR WITH
AN INCREASE IN LIGHTNING STORMS ONCE BOUNDARIES INTERACT. THE MAIN
CONCERN WL BE FOR CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS AND LIGHTNING. EVENING
STORMS WILL TRANSITION TO THE COAST AND OFFSHORE DURING THE
EVENING AND SHOULD END OVER LAND FROM AROUND 10 TO 11 PM WITH LOSS
OF HEATING.

INDEPENDENCE DAY WEEKEND...
TROFING PATTERN OVER THE ERN CONUS WILL PERSIST AS A POSITIVE PNA
PHASE SPANNING THE CONTINENT HAS A FIRM GRIP ON THE WX PATTERN IS
SHOWING NO SIGN OF BREAKING DOWN ANYTIME SOON: NRN BRANCH OF THE
H30-H20 JET IS RATHER WEAK WITH MAX WINDS LARGELY AOB 70KTS...MOST
OF WHICH IS POSITIONED WELL N OF THE CANADIAN BORDER...CLOSEST
100KT JET STREAK THAT COULD UPROOT THE DEEP RIDGE OVER THE WRN
CONUS IS CURRENTLY OVER THE WEST PAC AND NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT
THE CONUS UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK. A FRONTAL TROF EXTENDING FROM THE
MID ATLC TO THE MIDWEST IS EMBEDDED WITHIN DEEP WRLY FLOW THAT IS
LARGELY PARALLEL TO ITS ORIENTATION. THE BNDRY WILL DRIFT INTO THE
MID SOUTH/CAROLINA COAST ON FRI...BUT WITHOUT ANY SOURCE OF STRONG
MERIDIONAL FLOW...IT WILL STALL AND GRADUALLY WASH OUT OVER THE
WEEKEND BEFORE IT CAN PUSH INTO THE DEEP SOUTH.

PERSISTENT TROFING ACRS THE ERN CONUS WILL KEEP THE ATLC RIDGE AXIS
FROM DRIFING MUCH FURTHER N THAN THE CENTRAL FL PENINSULA THRU THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN A DEEP BUT WEAK S/SWRLY FLOW
THRU THE COLUMN WITH H100-H50 MEAN WINDS AOB 10KTS...H50-H20 MEAN
WINDS 10-15KTS.

WHILE SUCH FLOW REGIMES TEND TO FAVOR THE E HALF OF THE FL PENINSULA
FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION...THE FLOW WILL BE FLOW WILL BE TOO LIGHT FOR
STORM MOTION TO EXCEED 10MPH...THUS COVERAGE WILL BE AOB 50PCT.
REGIONAL MOISTURE IS SUFFICIENT FOR SCT POPS WITH MEAN RH AOA 60PCT
THRU THE H100-H50 LYR. LOW/MID LVL CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WILL BE
WEAK AS THE TROFING PATTERN PREVENTS THE ATLC RIDGE AXIS FROM
STRENGTHENING. H70 TEMPS BTWN 7-8C AND H50 TEMPS ARND -9C WILL YIELD
MAX LAPSE RATES BTWN 6.5-7.0C/KM THRU THE LYR. RIDGE AXIS WILL BLOCK
OUT MOST MID LVL VORT LOBES WHILE H30-H20 WINDS AOB 20KTS WILL
PRODUCE WEAK UPR LVL DIVERGENCE AT BEST.

WILL GO WITH A 30-50 POP COVERAGE...HIGHEST ALONG AND N OF THE I-4
CORRIDOR...LOWEST TREASURE COAST AS WEAK SW FLOW WILL FOCUS THE LAKE
OKEECHOBEE SHADOW ACRS THAT REGION. TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABV AVG AS IS
COMMON IN SW FLOW...MAXES IN THE L/M90S...MINS L/M70S.

MON-WED...
UPDATE TO FOLLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDS AREAWIDE THROUGH AROUND 02/15Z. ISOLD SHRA/TS MOVING
INTO NRN LOCATIONS AND I-4 CORRIDOR NR ISM-MCO-LEE-SFB PRODUCING
BRIEFLY MVFR CONDS. FM 02/17-02/21Z INCRSG CVG OF SHRA/TS WITH
MVFR PRIMARY IN AFFECTED AREAS ALNG WITH ISOLD IFR CONDS PSBL IN
TS THROUGH 03/01Z. BECMG VFR AREA WIDE AFT 03/02Z.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED OVER S FL WL BRING S/SW WINDS
NR 10 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS 2 TO 3 FT THROUGH THIS EVENING. AN
ONSHORE SEABREEZE EXPECTED AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST FROM AROUND 2 PM
THROUGH 8 PM WITH CONDITIONS POSSIBLY INTERRUPTED BY OFFSHORE
MOVING STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND CHOPPY SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH
STORMS INTO EARLY EVENING MAINLY N OF SEBASTIAN INLET.

INDEPENDENCE DAY WEEKEND...
ATLC RIDGE AXIS WILL DRIFT ACRS THE CNTRL/SRN FL PENINSULA...
MAINTAINING A GENTLE TO MODERATE SRLY BREEZE OVER THE LCL CSTL
WATERS...BCMG SE NEAR THE COAST EACH AFTN WITH THE FORMATION OF THE
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE. SEAS GENERALLY 2-3FT...UP TO 4FT OVER THE
OFFSHORE LEG N OF SEBASTIAN INLET. PRIMARY MARINE THREAT WILL BE
AFTN/EVNG TSRAS MVG OFFSHORE THAT WILL BE CAPABLE OF GENERATING SFC
WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35KTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  93  73  91  74 /  40  20  40  30
MCO  95  74  94  75 /  40  20  40  20
MLB  93  74  91  76 /  40  30  40  30
VRB  92  74  92  75 /  30  20  30  30
LEE  95  76  93  76 /  40  20  40  20
SFB  96  75  94  75 /  40  20  40  20
ORL  95  76  94  76 /  40  20  40  20
FPR  92  72  92  74 /  20  20  30  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PENDERGRAST
LONG TERM....BRAGAW




000
FXUS62 KMLB 020811
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
411 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE CURRENT PATTERN WITH BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS WL CONTINUE. W TO SW STEERING FLOW AROUND 15 TO 20 KT ALONG
WITH AMPLE MOISTURE AND SFC HEATING WL LEAD TO AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT
OF SCATTERED LIGHTNING STORMS. A MODEST TO WEAK LL PRESSURE GRADIENT
WL LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT OF THE EAST COAST BREEZE BOUNDARY AND OTHER
LOCALIZED BOUNDARIES BY MID AFTERNOON. LOW TO MID RANGE SCT COVERAGE
CAN BE EXPECTED SOME WITH EARLY SHOWERS AND PERHAPS LATE MORNING
PCPN MOVING EWD FROM THE FL WEST COAST TO THE I-4 CORRIDOR WITH
AN INCREASE IN LIGHTNING STORMS ONCE BOUNDARIES INTERACT. THE MAIN
CONCERN WL BE FOR CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS AND LIGHTNING. EVENING
STORMS WILL TRANSITION TO THE COAST AND OFFSHORE DURING THE
EVENING AND SHOULD END OVER LAND FROM AROUND 10 TO 11 PM WITH LOSS
OF HEATING.

INDEPENDENCE DAY WEEKEND...
TROFING PATTERN OVER THE ERN CONUS WILL PERSIST AS A POSITIVE PNA
PHASE SPANNING THE CONTINENT HAS A FIRM GRIP ON THE WX PATTERN IS
SHOWING NO SIGN OF BREAKING DOWN ANYTIME SOON: NRN BRANCH OF THE
H30-H20 JET IS RATHER WEAK WITH MAX WINDS LARGELY AOB 70KTS...MOST
OF WHICH IS POSITIONED WELL N OF THE CANADIAN BORDER...CLOSEST
100KT JET STREAK THAT COULD UPROOT THE DEEP RIDGE OVER THE WRN
CONUS IS CURRENTLY OVER THE WEST PAC AND NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT
THE CONUS UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK. A FRONTAL TROF EXTENDING FROM THE
MID ATLC TO THE MIDWEST IS EMBEDDED WITHIN DEEP WRLY FLOW THAT IS
LARGELY PARALLEL TO ITS ORIENTATION. THE BNDRY WILL DRIFT INTO THE
MID SOUTH/CAROLINA COAST ON FRI...BUT WITHOUT ANY SOURCE OF STRONG
MERIDIONAL FLOW...IT WILL STALL AND GRADUALLY WASH OUT OVER THE
WEEKEND BEFORE IT CAN PUSH INTO THE DEEP SOUTH.

PERSISTENT TROFING ACRS THE ERN CONUS WILL KEEP THE ATLC RIDGE AXIS
FROM DRIFING MUCH FURTHER N THAN THE CENTRAL FL PENINSULA THRU THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN A DEEP BUT WEAK S/SWRLY FLOW
THRU THE COLUMN WITH H100-H50 MEAN WINDS AOB 10KTS...H50-H20 MEAN
WINDS 10-15KTS.

WHILE SUCH FLOW REGIMES TEND TO FAVOR THE E HALF OF THE FL PENINSULA
FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION...THE FLOW WILL BE FLOW WILL BE TOO LIGHT FOR
STORM MOTION TO EXCEED 10MPH...THUS COVERAGE WILL BE AOB 50PCT.
REGIONAL MOISTURE IS SUFFICIENT FOR SCT POPS WITH MEAN RH AOA 60PCT
THRU THE H100-H50 LYR. LOW/MID LVL CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WILL BE
WEAK AS THE TROFING PATTERN PREVENTS THE ATLC RIDGE AXIS FROM
STRENGTHENING. H70 TEMPS BTWN 7-8C AND H50 TEMPS ARND -9C WILL YIELD
MAX LAPSE RATES BTWN 6.5-7.0C/KM THRU THE LYR. RIDGE AXIS WILL BLOCK
OUT MOST MID LVL VORT LOBES WHILE H30-H20 WINDS AOB 20KTS WILL
PRODUCE WEAK UPR LVL DIVERGENCE AT BEST.

WILL GO WITH A 30-50 POP COVERAGE...HIGHEST ALONG AND N OF THE I-4
CORRIDOR...LOWEST TREASURE COAST AS WEAK SW FLOW WILL FOCUS THE LAKE
OKEECHOBEE SHADOW ACRS THAT REGION. TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABV AVG AS IS
COMMON IN SW FLOW...MAXES IN THE L/M90S...MINS L/M70S.

MON-WED...
UPDATE TO FOLLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDS AREAWIDE THROUGH AROUND 02/15Z. ISOLD SHRA/TS MOVING
INTO NRN LOCATIONS AND I-4 CORRIDOR NR ISM-MCO-LEE-SFB PRODUCING
BRIEFLY MVFR CONDS. FM 02/17-02/21Z INCRSG CVG OF SHRA/TS WITH
MVFR PRIMARY IN AFFECTED AREAS ALNG WITH ISOLD IFR CONDS PSBL IN
TS THROUGH 03/01Z. BECMG VFR AREA WIDE AFT 03/02Z.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED OVER S FL WL BRING S/SW WINDS
NR 10 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS 2 TO 3 FT THROUGH THIS EVENING. AN
ONSHORE SEABREEZE EXPECTED AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST FROM AROUND 2 PM
THROUGH 8 PM WITH CONDITIONS POSSIBLY INTERRUPTED BY OFFSHORE
MOVING STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND CHOPPY SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH
STORMS INTO EARLY EVENING MAINLY N OF SEBASTIAN INLET.

INDEPENDENCE DAY WEEKEND...
ATLC RIDGE AXIS WILL DRIFT ACRS THE CNTRL/SRN FL PENINSULA...
MAINTAINING A GENTLE TO MODERATE SRLY BREEZE OVER THE LCL CSTL
WATERS...BCMG SE NEAR THE COAST EACH AFTN WITH THE FORMATION OF THE
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE. SEAS GENERALLY 2-3FT...UP TO 4FT OVER THE
OFFSHORE LEG N OF SEBASTIAN INLET. PRIMARY MARINE THREAT WILL BE
AFTN/EVNG TSRAS MVG OFFSHORE THAT WILL BE CAPABLE OF GENERATING SFC
WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35KTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  93  73  91  74 /  40  20  40  30
MCO  95  74  94  75 /  40  20  40  20
MLB  93  74  91  76 /  40  30  40  30
VRB  92  74  92  75 /  30  20  30  30
LEE  95  76  93  76 /  40  20  40  20
SFB  96  75  94  75 /  40  20  40  20
ORL  95  76  94  76 /  40  20  40  20
FPR  92  72  92  74 /  20  20  30  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PENDERGRAST
LONG TERM....BRAGAW





000
FXUS62 KMLB 020811
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
411 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE CURRENT PATTERN WITH BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS WL CONTINUE. W TO SW STEERING FLOW AROUND 15 TO 20 KT ALONG
WITH AMPLE MOISTURE AND SFC HEATING WL LEAD TO AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT
OF SCATTERED LIGHTNING STORMS. A MODEST TO WEAK LL PRESSURE GRADIENT
WL LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT OF THE EAST COAST BREEZE BOUNDARY AND OTHER
LOCALIZED BOUNDARIES BY MID AFTERNOON. LOW TO MID RANGE SCT COVERAGE
CAN BE EXPECTED SOME WITH EARLY SHOWERS AND PERHAPS LATE MORNING
PCPN MOVING EWD FROM THE FL WEST COAST TO THE I-4 CORRIDOR WITH
AN INCREASE IN LIGHTNING STORMS ONCE BOUNDARIES INTERACT. THE MAIN
CONCERN WL BE FOR CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS AND LIGHTNING. EVENING
STORMS WILL TRANSITION TO THE COAST AND OFFSHORE DURING THE
EVENING AND SHOULD END OVER LAND FROM AROUND 10 TO 11 PM WITH LOSS
OF HEATING.

INDEPENDENCE DAY WEEKEND...
TROFING PATTERN OVER THE ERN CONUS WILL PERSIST AS A POSITIVE PNA
PHASE SPANNING THE CONTINENT HAS A FIRM GRIP ON THE WX PATTERN IS
SHOWING NO SIGN OF BREAKING DOWN ANYTIME SOON: NRN BRANCH OF THE
H30-H20 JET IS RATHER WEAK WITH MAX WINDS LARGELY AOB 70KTS...MOST
OF WHICH IS POSITIONED WELL N OF THE CANADIAN BORDER...CLOSEST
100KT JET STREAK THAT COULD UPROOT THE DEEP RIDGE OVER THE WRN
CONUS IS CURRENTLY OVER THE WEST PAC AND NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT
THE CONUS UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK. A FRONTAL TROF EXTENDING FROM THE
MID ATLC TO THE MIDWEST IS EMBEDDED WITHIN DEEP WRLY FLOW THAT IS
LARGELY PARALLEL TO ITS ORIENTATION. THE BNDRY WILL DRIFT INTO THE
MID SOUTH/CAROLINA COAST ON FRI...BUT WITHOUT ANY SOURCE OF STRONG
MERIDIONAL FLOW...IT WILL STALL AND GRADUALLY WASH OUT OVER THE
WEEKEND BEFORE IT CAN PUSH INTO THE DEEP SOUTH.

PERSISTENT TROFING ACRS THE ERN CONUS WILL KEEP THE ATLC RIDGE AXIS
FROM DRIFING MUCH FURTHER N THAN THE CENTRAL FL PENINSULA THRU THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN A DEEP BUT WEAK S/SWRLY FLOW
THRU THE COLUMN WITH H100-H50 MEAN WINDS AOB 10KTS...H50-H20 MEAN
WINDS 10-15KTS.

WHILE SUCH FLOW REGIMES TEND TO FAVOR THE E HALF OF THE FL PENINSULA
FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION...THE FLOW WILL BE FLOW WILL BE TOO LIGHT FOR
STORM MOTION TO EXCEED 10MPH...THUS COVERAGE WILL BE AOB 50PCT.
REGIONAL MOISTURE IS SUFFICIENT FOR SCT POPS WITH MEAN RH AOA 60PCT
THRU THE H100-H50 LYR. LOW/MID LVL CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WILL BE
WEAK AS THE TROFING PATTERN PREVENTS THE ATLC RIDGE AXIS FROM
STRENGTHENING. H70 TEMPS BTWN 7-8C AND H50 TEMPS ARND -9C WILL YIELD
MAX LAPSE RATES BTWN 6.5-7.0C/KM THRU THE LYR. RIDGE AXIS WILL BLOCK
OUT MOST MID LVL VORT LOBES WHILE H30-H20 WINDS AOB 20KTS WILL
PRODUCE WEAK UPR LVL DIVERGENCE AT BEST.

WILL GO WITH A 30-50 POP COVERAGE...HIGHEST ALONG AND N OF THE I-4
CORRIDOR...LOWEST TREASURE COAST AS WEAK SW FLOW WILL FOCUS THE LAKE
OKEECHOBEE SHADOW ACRS THAT REGION. TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABV AVG AS IS
COMMON IN SW FLOW...MAXES IN THE L/M90S...MINS L/M70S.

MON-WED...
UPDATE TO FOLLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDS AREAWIDE THROUGH AROUND 02/15Z. ISOLD SHRA/TS MOVING
INTO NRN LOCATIONS AND I-4 CORRIDOR NR ISM-MCO-LEE-SFB PRODUCING
BRIEFLY MVFR CONDS. FM 02/17-02/21Z INCRSG CVG OF SHRA/TS WITH
MVFR PRIMARY IN AFFECTED AREAS ALNG WITH ISOLD IFR CONDS PSBL IN
TS THROUGH 03/01Z. BECMG VFR AREA WIDE AFT 03/02Z.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED OVER S FL WL BRING S/SW WINDS
NR 10 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS 2 TO 3 FT THROUGH THIS EVENING. AN
ONSHORE SEABREEZE EXPECTED AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST FROM AROUND 2 PM
THROUGH 8 PM WITH CONDITIONS POSSIBLY INTERRUPTED BY OFFSHORE
MOVING STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND CHOPPY SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH
STORMS INTO EARLY EVENING MAINLY N OF SEBASTIAN INLET.

INDEPENDENCE DAY WEEKEND...
ATLC RIDGE AXIS WILL DRIFT ACRS THE CNTRL/SRN FL PENINSULA...
MAINTAINING A GENTLE TO MODERATE SRLY BREEZE OVER THE LCL CSTL
WATERS...BCMG SE NEAR THE COAST EACH AFTN WITH THE FORMATION OF THE
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE. SEAS GENERALLY 2-3FT...UP TO 4FT OVER THE
OFFSHORE LEG N OF SEBASTIAN INLET. PRIMARY MARINE THREAT WILL BE
AFTN/EVNG TSRAS MVG OFFSHORE THAT WILL BE CAPABLE OF GENERATING SFC
WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35KTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  93  73  91  74 /  40  20  40  30
MCO  95  74  94  75 /  40  20  40  20
MLB  93  74  91  76 /  40  30  40  30
VRB  92  74  92  75 /  30  20  30  30
LEE  95  76  93  76 /  40  20  40  20
SFB  96  75  94  75 /  40  20  40  20
ORL  95  76  94  76 /  40  20  40  20
FPR  92  72  92  74 /  20  20  30  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PENDERGRAST
LONG TERM....BRAGAW




000
FXUS62 KMLB 020134
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
934 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT-THU...CONVECTION FROM LATE DAY BOUNDARY COLLISIONS AND
LINGERING DEBRIS RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL SECTIONS WILL DIMINISH BY
AROUND MIDNIGHT.

OTHERWISE...LITTLE CHANGE IN OVERALL PATTERN IS INDICATED WITH LOW-
MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS CONTINUING NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF LAKE
OKEECHOBEE.  THIS WILL PROVIDE A RATHER DEEP LAYER OF WESTERLY WINDS
AND FAVOR THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE PENINSULA FOR THE MOST NUMEROUS
AND STRONGEST BOUNDARY COLLISIONS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME
DRIER AIR ABOVE THE SURFACE WHICH SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE TO SCATTERED
AGAIN. MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL REMAIN COOL SO EXPECT A FEW STRONG
STORMS. THE AFTERNOON RAINFALL AND/OR OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL
PROVIDE SOME RELIEF FROM THE CONTINUED HOT TEMPS IN THE LOWER-MID
90S.

&&

.AVIATION...A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR STORMS EXISTS FOR THE INTERIOR
TERMINALS THROUGH LATE EVENING THEN IT WILL BE VFR.  OVERALL PATTERN
SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE ON THU SO EXPECT SCATTERED STORMS TO MARCH WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE PENINSULA AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT-THU...THE MAIN HAZARD WILL CONTINUE TO BE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING STORMS THAT MOVE OFF THE COAST...ESPECIALLY FROM SEBASTIAN
INLET NORTHWARD.  A FEW WILL BE STRONG AND PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS TO 34
KNOTS OR GREATER AND FREQUENT LIGHTING STRIKES.

OTHERWISE...A SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS IS
INDICATED EXCEPT FOR AN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

FORECASTS...LASCODY
IMPACT WX...SEDLOCK





000
FXUS62 KMLB 020134
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
934 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT-THU...CONVECTION FROM LATE DAY BOUNDARY COLLISIONS AND
LINGERING DEBRIS RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL SECTIONS WILL DIMINISH BY
AROUND MIDNIGHT.

OTHERWISE...LITTLE CHANGE IN OVERALL PATTERN IS INDICATED WITH LOW-
MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS CONTINUING NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF LAKE
OKEECHOBEE.  THIS WILL PROVIDE A RATHER DEEP LAYER OF WESTERLY WINDS
AND FAVOR THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE PENINSULA FOR THE MOST NUMEROUS
AND STRONGEST BOUNDARY COLLISIONS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME
DRIER AIR ABOVE THE SURFACE WHICH SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE TO SCATTERED
AGAIN. MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL REMAIN COOL SO EXPECT A FEW STRONG
STORMS. THE AFTERNOON RAINFALL AND/OR OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL
PROVIDE SOME RELIEF FROM THE CONTINUED HOT TEMPS IN THE LOWER-MID
90S.

&&

.AVIATION...A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR STORMS EXISTS FOR THE INTERIOR
TERMINALS THROUGH LATE EVENING THEN IT WILL BE VFR.  OVERALL PATTERN
SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE ON THU SO EXPECT SCATTERED STORMS TO MARCH WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE PENINSULA AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT-THU...THE MAIN HAZARD WILL CONTINUE TO BE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING STORMS THAT MOVE OFF THE COAST...ESPECIALLY FROM SEBASTIAN
INLET NORTHWARD.  A FEW WILL BE STRONG AND PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS TO 34
KNOTS OR GREATER AND FREQUENT LIGHTING STRIKES.

OTHERWISE...A SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS IS
INDICATED EXCEPT FOR AN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

FORECASTS...LASCODY
IMPACT WX...SEDLOCK




000
FXUS62 KMLB 011830
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
230 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY-TONIGHT...SEA BREEZE ALONG THE VOLUSIA COUNTY COAST NOW
UNLIKELY AS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE ALREADY PUSHING OFFSHORE...BUT
FARTHER SOUTH SHOULD STILL SEA SEA BREEZE FORM AND MOVE SLOWLY
WESTWARD WITH FARTHER MOVEMENT INLAND SOUTH OF MELBOURNE. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE MORE
ACTIVE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE AND SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFT.
GREATEST STORM COVERAGE AND BEST CHANCE FOR ISO STRONGER STORMS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR ALONG SEA BREEZE/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY COLLISIONS NEAR
THE NRN BREVARD COAST SOUTHWARD ACROSS INTERIOR COUNTIES FROM LATE
AFT INTO EARLY EVENING. MAIN STORMS THREATS WILL BE STRONG WIND
GUSTS UP TO 40 TO 50 MPH...SMALL HAIL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

CONVECTION AND ANY DEBRIS CLOUD RAINFALL WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE
INTO LATE EVENING WITH RAIN CHANCES ENDING BY MIDNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL
DECREASE WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

THU-FRI...ATLC RIDGE AXIS REMAINS NEAR TO JUST NORTH OF LAKE
OKEECHOBEE REGION INTO LATE WEEK. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A RELATIVELY
LIGHT S/SW FLOW OVER THE AREA WITH THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING EARLIER
AND WITH MORE INLAND MOVEMENT SOUTH OF THE CAPE EACH AFTERNOON.
MODELS SHOW OVERALL MOISTURE INCREASES SLIGHTLY DURING THIS TIME
FRAME WITH PW VALUES AROUND 1.7-1.9 INCHES WHICH SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR SCT AFT SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE AREA. BEST CHANCE
FOR RAIN WILL BE WITH ANY BOUNDARY COLLISIONS LATE IN THE DAY WHICH
UNDER THE FLOW REGIME WILL BE FAVORED ALONG TO JUST EAST OF THE I-4
CORRIDOR AND FARTHER SOUTH OVER INTERIOR AREAS WEST OF I-95. WILL
KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE FROM 30-50 PERCENT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE
ALONG THE TREASURE COAST DUE TO EARLIER SEA BREEZE START AND WEAKER
STEERING FLOW TO PUSH STORMS BACK TOWARD THE COAST.

TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 90S ALONG THE COAST TO MID 90S OVER
THE INTERIOR WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

SAT-TUE...(PREVIOUS DISCUSSION) CPC INDICATING THE PNA REMAINING IN
A POSITIVE PHASE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WEAKENING SOME TOWARD THE
END OF THE FCST PD. THE RESULTING TROFING ACRS THE ERN CONUS WILL
KEEP THE ATLC RIDGE AXIS MEANDERING ACRS THE CNTRL/SRN FL PENINSULA
WITH SWLY FLOW PREVAILING THRU THE COLUMN. WILL KEEP DAILY POPS IN
THE 30-50PCT RANGE THRU THE DAYTIME PDS...BCMG A SLGT CHC THRU LATE
EVNGS. MAX/MIN TEMPS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABV AVG...BUT NOT BY MORE THAN
5F.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY ALONG THE
EAST AND WEST COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES THROUGH THE AFT. GREATEST
COVERAGE EXPECTED WITH ANY BOUNDARY COLLISIONS TOWARD THE NRN
BREVARD COAST SOUTHWARD THROUGH AREAS WEST OF I-95 INTO LATE AFT AND
EARLY EVE. CONVECTION WILL THEN DECREASE IN COVERAGE WITH RAIN
CHANCES GENERALLY ENDING BY MIDNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...

TONIGHT...SOUTHERLY WINDS UP TO 10-15 KNOTS WILL BECOME S/SW
OVERNIGHT AND DECREASE SLIGHTLY WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 1-3 FEET. A
FEW OFFSHORE MOVING STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE
FROM LATE AFT INTO THE EVENING...MAINLY FROM THE CAPE SOUTHWARD TO
INDIAN RIVER/ST. LUCIE COUNTIES.

THU-SUN...(PREVIOUS DISCUSSION) GENERALLY FAVORABLE BOATING
CONDITIONS THRU THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. ATLC RIDGE AXIS WILL MEANDER
OVER THE CNTRL/SRN FL PENINSULA...MAINTAINING A GENTLE TO MODERATE
S/SWRLY BREEZE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...BCMG S/SE NEAR THE COAST
EACH AFTN WITH THE FORMATION OF THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE. SEAS
GENERALLY 2-3FT AREAWIDE...OCNLY UP TO 4FT OVER THE OFFSHORE LEG N
OF SEBASTIAN INLET. PRIMARY MARINE THREAT WILL BE TSRAS MVG
OFFSHORE IN THE LATE AFTNS/EARLY EVNGS THAT WILL BE CAPABLE OF
GENERATING SFC WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35KTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  73  92  74  91 /  20  40  20  40
MCO  74  95  75  94 /  20  40  20  40
MLB  75  91  75  91 /  30  40  30  30
VRB  73  92  74  91 /  20  30  20  20
LEE  76  93  77  94 /  20  40  20  40
SFB  75  95  76  94 /  20  40  20  40
ORL  76  95  77  94 /  20  40  20  40
FPR  73  91  73  91 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

FORECAST GRIDS...WEITLICH/ULRICH
IMPACT WEATHER/RADAR/AVIATION....KELLY




000
FXUS62 KMLB 011830
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
230 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY-TONIGHT...SEA BREEZE ALONG THE VOLUSIA COUNTY COAST NOW
UNLIKELY AS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE ALREADY PUSHING OFFSHORE...BUT
FARTHER SOUTH SHOULD STILL SEA SEA BREEZE FORM AND MOVE SLOWLY
WESTWARD WITH FARTHER MOVEMENT INLAND SOUTH OF MELBOURNE. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE MORE
ACTIVE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE AND SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFT.
GREATEST STORM COVERAGE AND BEST CHANCE FOR ISO STRONGER STORMS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR ALONG SEA BREEZE/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY COLLISIONS NEAR
THE NRN BREVARD COAST SOUTHWARD ACROSS INTERIOR COUNTIES FROM LATE
AFT INTO EARLY EVENING. MAIN STORMS THREATS WILL BE STRONG WIND
GUSTS UP TO 40 TO 50 MPH...SMALL HAIL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

CONVECTION AND ANY DEBRIS CLOUD RAINFALL WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE
INTO LATE EVENING WITH RAIN CHANCES ENDING BY MIDNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL
DECREASE WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

THU-FRI...ATLC RIDGE AXIS REMAINS NEAR TO JUST NORTH OF LAKE
OKEECHOBEE REGION INTO LATE WEEK. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A RELATIVELY
LIGHT S/SW FLOW OVER THE AREA WITH THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING EARLIER
AND WITH MORE INLAND MOVEMENT SOUTH OF THE CAPE EACH AFTERNOON.
MODELS SHOW OVERALL MOISTURE INCREASES SLIGHTLY DURING THIS TIME
FRAME WITH PW VALUES AROUND 1.7-1.9 INCHES WHICH SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR SCT AFT SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE AREA. BEST CHANCE
FOR RAIN WILL BE WITH ANY BOUNDARY COLLISIONS LATE IN THE DAY WHICH
UNDER THE FLOW REGIME WILL BE FAVORED ALONG TO JUST EAST OF THE I-4
CORRIDOR AND FARTHER SOUTH OVER INTERIOR AREAS WEST OF I-95. WILL
KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE FROM 30-50 PERCENT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE
ALONG THE TREASURE COAST DUE TO EARLIER SEA BREEZE START AND WEAKER
STEERING FLOW TO PUSH STORMS BACK TOWARD THE COAST.

TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 90S ALONG THE COAST TO MID 90S OVER
THE INTERIOR WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

SAT-TUE...(PREVIOUS DISCUSSION) CPC INDICATING THE PNA REMAINING IN
A POSITIVE PHASE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WEAKENING SOME TOWARD THE
END OF THE FCST PD. THE RESULTING TROFING ACRS THE ERN CONUS WILL
KEEP THE ATLC RIDGE AXIS MEANDERING ACRS THE CNTRL/SRN FL PENINSULA
WITH SWLY FLOW PREVAILING THRU THE COLUMN. WILL KEEP DAILY POPS IN
THE 30-50PCT RANGE THRU THE DAYTIME PDS...BCMG A SLGT CHC THRU LATE
EVNGS. MAX/MIN TEMPS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABV AVG...BUT NOT BY MORE THAN
5F.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY ALONG THE
EAST AND WEST COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES THROUGH THE AFT. GREATEST
COVERAGE EXPECTED WITH ANY BOUNDARY COLLISIONS TOWARD THE NRN
BREVARD COAST SOUTHWARD THROUGH AREAS WEST OF I-95 INTO LATE AFT AND
EARLY EVE. CONVECTION WILL THEN DECREASE IN COVERAGE WITH RAIN
CHANCES GENERALLY ENDING BY MIDNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...

TONIGHT...SOUTHERLY WINDS UP TO 10-15 KNOTS WILL BECOME S/SW
OVERNIGHT AND DECREASE SLIGHTLY WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 1-3 FEET. A
FEW OFFSHORE MOVING STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE
FROM LATE AFT INTO THE EVENING...MAINLY FROM THE CAPE SOUTHWARD TO
INDIAN RIVER/ST. LUCIE COUNTIES.

THU-SUN...(PREVIOUS DISCUSSION) GENERALLY FAVORABLE BOATING
CONDITIONS THRU THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. ATLC RIDGE AXIS WILL MEANDER
OVER THE CNTRL/SRN FL PENINSULA...MAINTAINING A GENTLE TO MODERATE
S/SWRLY BREEZE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...BCMG S/SE NEAR THE COAST
EACH AFTN WITH THE FORMATION OF THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE. SEAS
GENERALLY 2-3FT AREAWIDE...OCNLY UP TO 4FT OVER THE OFFSHORE LEG N
OF SEBASTIAN INLET. PRIMARY MARINE THREAT WILL BE TSRAS MVG
OFFSHORE IN THE LATE AFTNS/EARLY EVNGS THAT WILL BE CAPABLE OF
GENERATING SFC WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35KTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  73  92  74  91 /  20  40  20  40
MCO  74  95  75  94 /  20  40  20  40
MLB  75  91  75  91 /  30  40  30  30
VRB  73  92  74  91 /  20  30  20  20
LEE  76  93  77  94 /  20  40  20  40
SFB  75  95  76  94 /  20  40  20  40
ORL  76  95  77  94 /  20  40  20  40
FPR  73  91  73  91 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

FORECAST GRIDS...WEITLICH/ULRICH
IMPACT WEATHER/RADAR/AVIATION....KELLY





000
FXUS62 KMLB 011830
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
230 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY-TONIGHT...SEA BREEZE ALONG THE VOLUSIA COUNTY COAST NOW
UNLIKELY AS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE ALREADY PUSHING OFFSHORE...BUT
FARTHER SOUTH SHOULD STILL SEA SEA BREEZE FORM AND MOVE SLOWLY
WESTWARD WITH FARTHER MOVEMENT INLAND SOUTH OF MELBOURNE. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE MORE
ACTIVE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE AND SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFT.
GREATEST STORM COVERAGE AND BEST CHANCE FOR ISO STRONGER STORMS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR ALONG SEA BREEZE/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY COLLISIONS NEAR
THE NRN BREVARD COAST SOUTHWARD ACROSS INTERIOR COUNTIES FROM LATE
AFT INTO EARLY EVENING. MAIN STORMS THREATS WILL BE STRONG WIND
GUSTS UP TO 40 TO 50 MPH...SMALL HAIL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

CONVECTION AND ANY DEBRIS CLOUD RAINFALL WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE
INTO LATE EVENING WITH RAIN CHANCES ENDING BY MIDNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL
DECREASE WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

THU-FRI...ATLC RIDGE AXIS REMAINS NEAR TO JUST NORTH OF LAKE
OKEECHOBEE REGION INTO LATE WEEK. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A RELATIVELY
LIGHT S/SW FLOW OVER THE AREA WITH THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING EARLIER
AND WITH MORE INLAND MOVEMENT SOUTH OF THE CAPE EACH AFTERNOON.
MODELS SHOW OVERALL MOISTURE INCREASES SLIGHTLY DURING THIS TIME
FRAME WITH PW VALUES AROUND 1.7-1.9 INCHES WHICH SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR SCT AFT SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE AREA. BEST CHANCE
FOR RAIN WILL BE WITH ANY BOUNDARY COLLISIONS LATE IN THE DAY WHICH
UNDER THE FLOW REGIME WILL BE FAVORED ALONG TO JUST EAST OF THE I-4
CORRIDOR AND FARTHER SOUTH OVER INTERIOR AREAS WEST OF I-95. WILL
KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE FROM 30-50 PERCENT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE
ALONG THE TREASURE COAST DUE TO EARLIER SEA BREEZE START AND WEAKER
STEERING FLOW TO PUSH STORMS BACK TOWARD THE COAST.

TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 90S ALONG THE COAST TO MID 90S OVER
THE INTERIOR WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

SAT-TUE...(PREVIOUS DISCUSSION) CPC INDICATING THE PNA REMAINING IN
A POSITIVE PHASE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WEAKENING SOME TOWARD THE
END OF THE FCST PD. THE RESULTING TROFING ACRS THE ERN CONUS WILL
KEEP THE ATLC RIDGE AXIS MEANDERING ACRS THE CNTRL/SRN FL PENINSULA
WITH SWLY FLOW PREVAILING THRU THE COLUMN. WILL KEEP DAILY POPS IN
THE 30-50PCT RANGE THRU THE DAYTIME PDS...BCMG A SLGT CHC THRU LATE
EVNGS. MAX/MIN TEMPS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABV AVG...BUT NOT BY MORE THAN
5F.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY ALONG THE
EAST AND WEST COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES THROUGH THE AFT. GREATEST
COVERAGE EXPECTED WITH ANY BOUNDARY COLLISIONS TOWARD THE NRN
BREVARD COAST SOUTHWARD THROUGH AREAS WEST OF I-95 INTO LATE AFT AND
EARLY EVE. CONVECTION WILL THEN DECREASE IN COVERAGE WITH RAIN
CHANCES GENERALLY ENDING BY MIDNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...

TONIGHT...SOUTHERLY WINDS UP TO 10-15 KNOTS WILL BECOME S/SW
OVERNIGHT AND DECREASE SLIGHTLY WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 1-3 FEET. A
FEW OFFSHORE MOVING STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE
FROM LATE AFT INTO THE EVENING...MAINLY FROM THE CAPE SOUTHWARD TO
INDIAN RIVER/ST. LUCIE COUNTIES.

THU-SUN...(PREVIOUS DISCUSSION) GENERALLY FAVORABLE BOATING
CONDITIONS THRU THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. ATLC RIDGE AXIS WILL MEANDER
OVER THE CNTRL/SRN FL PENINSULA...MAINTAINING A GENTLE TO MODERATE
S/SWRLY BREEZE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...BCMG S/SE NEAR THE COAST
EACH AFTN WITH THE FORMATION OF THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE. SEAS
GENERALLY 2-3FT AREAWIDE...OCNLY UP TO 4FT OVER THE OFFSHORE LEG N
OF SEBASTIAN INLET. PRIMARY MARINE THREAT WILL BE TSRAS MVG
OFFSHORE IN THE LATE AFTNS/EARLY EVNGS THAT WILL BE CAPABLE OF
GENERATING SFC WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35KTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  73  92  74  91 /  20  40  20  40
MCO  74  95  75  94 /  20  40  20  40
MLB  75  91  75  91 /  30  40  30  30
VRB  73  92  74  91 /  20  30  20  20
LEE  76  93  77  94 /  20  40  20  40
SFB  75  95  76  94 /  20  40  20  40
ORL  76  95  77  94 /  20  40  20  40
FPR  73  91  73  91 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

FORECAST GRIDS...WEITLICH/ULRICH
IMPACT WEATHER/RADAR/AVIATION....KELLY





000
FXUS62 KMLB 011830
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
230 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY-TONIGHT...SEA BREEZE ALONG THE VOLUSIA COUNTY COAST NOW
UNLIKELY AS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE ALREADY PUSHING OFFSHORE...BUT
FARTHER SOUTH SHOULD STILL SEA SEA BREEZE FORM AND MOVE SLOWLY
WESTWARD WITH FARTHER MOVEMENT INLAND SOUTH OF MELBOURNE. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE MORE
ACTIVE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE AND SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFT.
GREATEST STORM COVERAGE AND BEST CHANCE FOR ISO STRONGER STORMS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR ALONG SEA BREEZE/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY COLLISIONS NEAR
THE NRN BREVARD COAST SOUTHWARD ACROSS INTERIOR COUNTIES FROM LATE
AFT INTO EARLY EVENING. MAIN STORMS THREATS WILL BE STRONG WIND
GUSTS UP TO 40 TO 50 MPH...SMALL HAIL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

CONVECTION AND ANY DEBRIS CLOUD RAINFALL WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE
INTO LATE EVENING WITH RAIN CHANCES ENDING BY MIDNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL
DECREASE WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

THU-FRI...ATLC RIDGE AXIS REMAINS NEAR TO JUST NORTH OF LAKE
OKEECHOBEE REGION INTO LATE WEEK. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A RELATIVELY
LIGHT S/SW FLOW OVER THE AREA WITH THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING EARLIER
AND WITH MORE INLAND MOVEMENT SOUTH OF THE CAPE EACH AFTERNOON.
MODELS SHOW OVERALL MOISTURE INCREASES SLIGHTLY DURING THIS TIME
FRAME WITH PW VALUES AROUND 1.7-1.9 INCHES WHICH SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR SCT AFT SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE AREA. BEST CHANCE
FOR RAIN WILL BE WITH ANY BOUNDARY COLLISIONS LATE IN THE DAY WHICH
UNDER THE FLOW REGIME WILL BE FAVORED ALONG TO JUST EAST OF THE I-4
CORRIDOR AND FARTHER SOUTH OVER INTERIOR AREAS WEST OF I-95. WILL
KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE FROM 30-50 PERCENT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE
ALONG THE TREASURE COAST DUE TO EARLIER SEA BREEZE START AND WEAKER
STEERING FLOW TO PUSH STORMS BACK TOWARD THE COAST.

TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 90S ALONG THE COAST TO MID 90S OVER
THE INTERIOR WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

SAT-TUE...(PREVIOUS DISCUSSION) CPC INDICATING THE PNA REMAINING IN
A POSITIVE PHASE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WEAKENING SOME TOWARD THE
END OF THE FCST PD. THE RESULTING TROFING ACRS THE ERN CONUS WILL
KEEP THE ATLC RIDGE AXIS MEANDERING ACRS THE CNTRL/SRN FL PENINSULA
WITH SWLY FLOW PREVAILING THRU THE COLUMN. WILL KEEP DAILY POPS IN
THE 30-50PCT RANGE THRU THE DAYTIME PDS...BCMG A SLGT CHC THRU LATE
EVNGS. MAX/MIN TEMPS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABV AVG...BUT NOT BY MORE THAN
5F.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY ALONG THE
EAST AND WEST COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES THROUGH THE AFT. GREATEST
COVERAGE EXPECTED WITH ANY BOUNDARY COLLISIONS TOWARD THE NRN
BREVARD COAST SOUTHWARD THROUGH AREAS WEST OF I-95 INTO LATE AFT AND
EARLY EVE. CONVECTION WILL THEN DECREASE IN COVERAGE WITH RAIN
CHANCES GENERALLY ENDING BY MIDNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...

TONIGHT...SOUTHERLY WINDS UP TO 10-15 KNOTS WILL BECOME S/SW
OVERNIGHT AND DECREASE SLIGHTLY WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 1-3 FEET. A
FEW OFFSHORE MOVING STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE
FROM LATE AFT INTO THE EVENING...MAINLY FROM THE CAPE SOUTHWARD TO
INDIAN RIVER/ST. LUCIE COUNTIES.

THU-SUN...(PREVIOUS DISCUSSION) GENERALLY FAVORABLE BOATING
CONDITIONS THRU THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. ATLC RIDGE AXIS WILL MEANDER
OVER THE CNTRL/SRN FL PENINSULA...MAINTAINING A GENTLE TO MODERATE
S/SWRLY BREEZE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...BCMG S/SE NEAR THE COAST
EACH AFTN WITH THE FORMATION OF THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE. SEAS
GENERALLY 2-3FT AREAWIDE...OCNLY UP TO 4FT OVER THE OFFSHORE LEG N
OF SEBASTIAN INLET. PRIMARY MARINE THREAT WILL BE TSRAS MVG
OFFSHORE IN THE LATE AFTNS/EARLY EVNGS THAT WILL BE CAPABLE OF
GENERATING SFC WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35KTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  73  92  74  91 /  20  40  20  40
MCO  74  95  75  94 /  20  40  20  40
MLB  75  91  75  91 /  30  40  30  30
VRB  73  92  74  91 /  20  30  20  20
LEE  76  93  77  94 /  20  40  20  40
SFB  75  95  76  94 /  20  40  20  40
ORL  76  95  77  94 /  20  40  20  40
FPR  73  91  73  91 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

FORECAST GRIDS...WEITLICH/ULRICH
IMPACT WEATHER/RADAR/AVIATION....KELLY




000
FXUS62 KMLB 011432
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1032 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWS RIDGE AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATL NEAR
LAKE OKEECHOBEE TODAY. THIS IS LEADING TO A WEAKER OFFSHORE FLOW
AND WILL ALLOW THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE TO FORM ALONG MUCH OF THE
COAST WITH EARLIER DEVELOPMENT AND FARTHER INLAND MOVEMENT
EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE CAPE. RAIN CHANCES ARE A LITTLE CHALLENGING
TODAY AS BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF MOS POPS ARE QUITE LOW. HOWEVER
MORNING SOUNDINGS DO SHOW LESS DRIER AIR ALOFT THAN YESTERDAY AND
TEMPS AT 500MB ARE COLDER. ALSO SCT STORMS ALREADY FORMING ALONG
THE NATURE COAST AND HEADING EAST TOWARD LAKE COUNTY. SO ALL THIS
SUGGESTS ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR AT LEAST ISO/SCT
CONVECTION INTO THE AFT. WILL THEREFORE KEEP RAIN CHANCES AROUND
30-40 PERCENT FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. BEST CHANCE FOR ANY ISOLATED
STRONGER STORMS WILL OCCUR WITH BOUNDARY COLLISIONS ALONG THE EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE LATE IN AFT AND EARLY EVE NEAR VOLUSIA/BREVARD
COASTS AND OVER THE INTERIOR FARTHER SOUTH.

HIGHS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOW 90S WHERE SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPS EARLY ENOUGH AND MOVES INLAND WITH MID 90S EXPECTED
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND COASTAL LOCATIONS WHERE SEA BREEZE IS
DELAYED.


&&

.AVIATION...SOUNDINGS DO NOT SHOW QUITE AS MUCH DRIER AIR AS
YESTERDAY BUT SOME DOES STILL EXIST ALOFT WHICH MY LIMIT
CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION. SCT SHRA/TSRA ALREADY DEVELOPING
WEST OF KLEE...HEADING EASTWARD THIS MORNING AND EXPECTING ANY
ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO BE ISO/SCT AT BEST INTO THE
AFT. BOUNDARY COLLISIONS WITH THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE MAY LEAD
TO A FEW STRONGER STORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND TOWARD
VOLUSIA/BREVARD COAST LATE AFT/EARLY EVE.


&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS EXISTS NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE
TODAY. WEAKER OFFSHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW THE SEA BREEZE TO FORM
ALONG MUCH OF THE COAST WITH EARLIER DEVELOPMENT SOUTH OF THE
CAPE. S/SW WINDS WILL BECOME SE NEAR THE COAST...GENERALLY 10 KT
OR LESS WITH SEAS 1 TO 3 FT. A FEW OFFSHORE MOVING STORMS WITH
GUSTY WINDS AND CHOPPY SEAS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY NORTH
OF SEBASTIAN INLET FROM MID TO LATE AFT.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

WEITLICH/KELLY




000
FXUS62 KMLB 011432
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1032 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWS RIDGE AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATL NEAR
LAKE OKEECHOBEE TODAY. THIS IS LEADING TO A WEAKER OFFSHORE FLOW
AND WILL ALLOW THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE TO FORM ALONG MUCH OF THE
COAST WITH EARLIER DEVELOPMENT AND FARTHER INLAND MOVEMENT
EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE CAPE. RAIN CHANCES ARE A LITTLE CHALLENGING
TODAY AS BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF MOS POPS ARE QUITE LOW. HOWEVER
MORNING SOUNDINGS DO SHOW LESS DRIER AIR ALOFT THAN YESTERDAY AND
TEMPS AT 500MB ARE COLDER. ALSO SCT STORMS ALREADY FORMING ALONG
THE NATURE COAST AND HEADING EAST TOWARD LAKE COUNTY. SO ALL THIS
SUGGESTS ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR AT LEAST ISO/SCT
CONVECTION INTO THE AFT. WILL THEREFORE KEEP RAIN CHANCES AROUND
30-40 PERCENT FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. BEST CHANCE FOR ANY ISOLATED
STRONGER STORMS WILL OCCUR WITH BOUNDARY COLLISIONS ALONG THE EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE LATE IN AFT AND EARLY EVE NEAR VOLUSIA/BREVARD
COASTS AND OVER THE INTERIOR FARTHER SOUTH.

HIGHS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOW 90S WHERE SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPS EARLY ENOUGH AND MOVES INLAND WITH MID 90S EXPECTED
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND COASTAL LOCATIONS WHERE SEA BREEZE IS
DELAYED.


&&

.AVIATION...SOUNDINGS DO NOT SHOW QUITE AS MUCH DRIER AIR AS
YESTERDAY BUT SOME DOES STILL EXIST ALOFT WHICH MY LIMIT
CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION. SCT SHRA/TSRA ALREADY DEVELOPING
WEST OF KLEE...HEADING EASTWARD THIS MORNING AND EXPECTING ANY
ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO BE ISO/SCT AT BEST INTO THE
AFT. BOUNDARY COLLISIONS WITH THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE MAY LEAD
TO A FEW STRONGER STORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND TOWARD
VOLUSIA/BREVARD COAST LATE AFT/EARLY EVE.


&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS EXISTS NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE
TODAY. WEAKER OFFSHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW THE SEA BREEZE TO FORM
ALONG MUCH OF THE COAST WITH EARLIER DEVELOPMENT SOUTH OF THE
CAPE. S/SW WINDS WILL BECOME SE NEAR THE COAST...GENERALLY 10 KT
OR LESS WITH SEAS 1 TO 3 FT. A FEW OFFSHORE MOVING STORMS WITH
GUSTY WINDS AND CHOPPY SEAS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY NORTH
OF SEBASTIAN INLET FROM MID TO LATE AFT.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

WEITLICH/KELLY





000
FXUS62 KMLB 010825 AAA
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
425 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WL CONTINUE TO
MANIFEST LOCALLY WITH SUPPRESSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS
JUST SOUTH OF CENTRAL FL. SW STEERING FLOW ON THE ORDER OF 15 TO
20 KT ALONG WITH PRESENCE OF PWAT VALUES OF 1.8 TO 2 INCHES WL
HELP PROMOTE AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT OF SCT LIGHTNING STORMS.
PROXIMITY OF SFC RIDGE ALONG WITH LIGHTER NR SFC WINDS WL LEAD TO
BOUNDARY DRIVEN CONVECTION THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. MID
RANGE SCT VALUES WL BE USED AREA WIDE  WITH EARLY PCPN MOVING EWD
FROM THE FL WEST COAST AND FILLING IN COVERAGE BY EARLY AFTN WITH
AN INCREASE IN LIGHTNING STORMS ONCE BOUNDARIES INTERACT. THE MAIN
CONCERN WL BE FOR SFC WINDS GUSTS AND LIGHTNING. EVENING STORMS
WILL TRANSITION TO THE COAST AND OFFSHORE DURING THE EVENING AND
LARGELY COME TO AN END OVER LAND FROM AROUND 10 TO 11 PM.

THU-FRI...
FAIRLY TYPICAL MID SUMMER WX IN PLAY FOR CENTRAL FL THRU THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK. A POSITIVE PNA PHASE ACRS NOAM WILL MAINTAIN A
TROFING PATTERN ACRS THE ERN CONUS WHILE THE H30-H20 JET STREAM
PUSHES THE STORM SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO ERN
CANADA...TO BE FOLLOWED BY A SECOND SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE
NRN PLAINS. THIS WILL KEEP THE ATLC RIDGE AXIS SUPPRESSED OVER THE S
HALF OF THE FL PENINSULA...RESULTING IN A DEEP AND STEADY SWRLY FLOW
THRU THE H100-H50 LYR.

UNDER SUCH FLOW REGIMES...THE E FL PENINSULA TENDS TO BE FAVORED FOR
DIURNAL CONVECTION. REGIONAL MOISTURE IS SUFFICIENT FOR SCT POPS
WITH MEAN RH ARND 60PCT THRU BOTH THE H100-H70 AND H85-H50 LYRS.
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WILL BE IN PLACE AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROFING PATTERN GENERATES A WEAKNESS IN THE WRN
EXTENSION OF THE ATLC RIDGE. H70 TEMPS ARND 8C AND H50 TEMPS ARND
-9C WILL YIELD LAPSE RATES ARND 6.5C/KM THRU THE LYR. MID LVL
VORTICITY WILL BE LACKING BUT AN H30-H20 ANTICYCLONE CENTERED JUST N
OF THE BAHAMA BANK WILL INTERACT WITH THE ERN TROF TO GENERATE A
SOURCE OF UPR LVL EVACUATION.

WILL GO WITH A 40-50 INTERIOR/COASTAL SPLIT...SLIGHTLY LOWER ALONG
THE TREASURE COAST DUE TO THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE SHADOW THAT WILL DVLP
IN THE DEEP SW FLOW. TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABV AVG AS IS COMMON IN SW
FLOW...MAXES IN THE L/M90S...MINS L/M70S.

SAT-TUE...
CPC INDICATING A THE PNA REMAINING IN A POSITIVE PHASE INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WEAKENING SOME TOWARD THE END OF THE FCST PD. THE
RESULTING TROFING ACRS THE ERN CONUS WILL KEEP THE ATLC RIDGE AXIS
MEANDERING ACRS THE CNTRL/SRN FL PENINSULA WITH SWLY FLOW
PREVAILING THRU THE COLUMN. WILL KEEP DAILY POPS IN THE 30-50PCT
RANGE THRU THE DAYTIME PDS...BCMG A SLGT CHC THRU LATE EVNGS.
MAX/MIN TEMPS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABV AVG...BUT NOT BY MORE THAN 5F.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDS AREAWIDE THROUGH 01/15Z THEN ISOLD SHRA/TS MOVING INTO
NRN LOCATIONS FM ISM-MCO-LEE-SFB PRODUCING MVFR CONDS. FM
01/16-01/20Z INCRSG CVG OF SHRA/TS WITH MVFR PRIMARY IN AFFECTED
AREAS ALNG WITH ISOLD IFR CONDS BRIEFLY IN TS THROUGH 02/01Z.
BECMG VFR AREA WIDE AFT 02/02Z.

&&

.MARINE...
PROXIMITY OF HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WL BRING S/SW WINDS GENERALLY 10
KT OR LESS WITH SEAS 1 TO 3 FT THROUGH TUE EVENING. AN ONSHORE
SEABREEZE EXPECTED AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST FROM AROUND 2 PM THROUGH
8 PM WITH CONDITIONS POSSIBLY INTERRUPTED BY OFFSHORE MOVING
STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND CHOPPY SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH STORMS
INTO EARLY EVENING.

THU-SUN...GENERALLY FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS THRU THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. ATLC RIDGE AXIS WILL MEANDER OVER THE CNTRL/SRN FL
PENINSULA...MAINTAINING A GENTLE TO MODERATE S/SWRLY BREEZE OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS...BCMG S/SE NEAR THE COAST EACH AFTN WITH THE
FORMATION OF THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE. SEAS GENERALLY 2-3FT
AREAWIDE...OCNLY UP TO 4FT OVER THE OFFSHORE LEG N OF SEBASTIAN
INLET. PRIMARY MARINE THREAT WILL BE TSRAS MVG OFFSHORE IN THE LATE
AFTNS/EARLY EVNGS THAT WILL BE CAPABLE OF GENERATING SFC WIND GUSTS
IN EXCESS OF 35KTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  91  73  90  75 /  40  20  50  30
MCO  94  75  93  74 /  40  20  40  20
MLB  92  74  89  76 /  40  30  50  30
VRB  90  73  89  75 /  30  30  50  30
LEE  93  76  93  76 /  40  20  40  20
SFB  95  76  93  75 /  40  20  40  20
ORL  94  77  93  75 /  40  20  40  20
FPR  91  73  89  74 /  30  30  40  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PENDERGRAST
LONG TERM....BRAGAW




000
FXUS62 KMLB 010825 AAA
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
425 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WL CONTINUE TO
MANIFEST LOCALLY WITH SUPPRESSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS
JUST SOUTH OF CENTRAL FL. SW STEERING FLOW ON THE ORDER OF 15 TO
20 KT ALONG WITH PRESENCE OF PWAT VALUES OF 1.8 TO 2 INCHES WL
HELP PROMOTE AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT OF SCT LIGHTNING STORMS.
PROXIMITY OF SFC RIDGE ALONG WITH LIGHTER NR SFC WINDS WL LEAD TO
BOUNDARY DRIVEN CONVECTION THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. MID
RANGE SCT VALUES WL BE USED AREA WIDE  WITH EARLY PCPN MOVING EWD
FROM THE FL WEST COAST AND FILLING IN COVERAGE BY EARLY AFTN WITH
AN INCREASE IN LIGHTNING STORMS ONCE BOUNDARIES INTERACT. THE MAIN
CONCERN WL BE FOR SFC WINDS GUSTS AND LIGHTNING. EVENING STORMS
WILL TRANSITION TO THE COAST AND OFFSHORE DURING THE EVENING AND
LARGELY COME TO AN END OVER LAND FROM AROUND 10 TO 11 PM.

THU-FRI...
FAIRLY TYPICAL MID SUMMER WX IN PLAY FOR CENTRAL FL THRU THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK. A POSITIVE PNA PHASE ACRS NOAM WILL MAINTAIN A
TROFING PATTERN ACRS THE ERN CONUS WHILE THE H30-H20 JET STREAM
PUSHES THE STORM SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO ERN
CANADA...TO BE FOLLOWED BY A SECOND SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE
NRN PLAINS. THIS WILL KEEP THE ATLC RIDGE AXIS SUPPRESSED OVER THE S
HALF OF THE FL PENINSULA...RESULTING IN A DEEP AND STEADY SWRLY FLOW
THRU THE H100-H50 LYR.

UNDER SUCH FLOW REGIMES...THE E FL PENINSULA TENDS TO BE FAVORED FOR
DIURNAL CONVECTION. REGIONAL MOISTURE IS SUFFICIENT FOR SCT POPS
WITH MEAN RH ARND 60PCT THRU BOTH THE H100-H70 AND H85-H50 LYRS.
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WILL BE IN PLACE AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROFING PATTERN GENERATES A WEAKNESS IN THE WRN
EXTENSION OF THE ATLC RIDGE. H70 TEMPS ARND 8C AND H50 TEMPS ARND
-9C WILL YIELD LAPSE RATES ARND 6.5C/KM THRU THE LYR. MID LVL
VORTICITY WILL BE LACKING BUT AN H30-H20 ANTICYCLONE CENTERED JUST N
OF THE BAHAMA BANK WILL INTERACT WITH THE ERN TROF TO GENERATE A
SOURCE OF UPR LVL EVACUATION.

WILL GO WITH A 40-50 INTERIOR/COASTAL SPLIT...SLIGHTLY LOWER ALONG
THE TREASURE COAST DUE TO THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE SHADOW THAT WILL DVLP
IN THE DEEP SW FLOW. TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABV AVG AS IS COMMON IN SW
FLOW...MAXES IN THE L/M90S...MINS L/M70S.

SAT-TUE...
CPC INDICATING A THE PNA REMAINING IN A POSITIVE PHASE INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WEAKENING SOME TOWARD THE END OF THE FCST PD. THE
RESULTING TROFING ACRS THE ERN CONUS WILL KEEP THE ATLC RIDGE AXIS
MEANDERING ACRS THE CNTRL/SRN FL PENINSULA WITH SWLY FLOW
PREVAILING THRU THE COLUMN. WILL KEEP DAILY POPS IN THE 30-50PCT
RANGE THRU THE DAYTIME PDS...BCMG A SLGT CHC THRU LATE EVNGS.
MAX/MIN TEMPS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABV AVG...BUT NOT BY MORE THAN 5F.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDS AREAWIDE THROUGH 01/15Z THEN ISOLD SHRA/TS MOVING INTO
NRN LOCATIONS FM ISM-MCO-LEE-SFB PRODUCING MVFR CONDS. FM
01/16-01/20Z INCRSG CVG OF SHRA/TS WITH MVFR PRIMARY IN AFFECTED
AREAS ALNG WITH ISOLD IFR CONDS BRIEFLY IN TS THROUGH 02/01Z.
BECMG VFR AREA WIDE AFT 02/02Z.

&&

.MARINE...
PROXIMITY OF HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WL BRING S/SW WINDS GENERALLY 10
KT OR LESS WITH SEAS 1 TO 3 FT THROUGH TUE EVENING. AN ONSHORE
SEABREEZE EXPECTED AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST FROM AROUND 2 PM THROUGH
8 PM WITH CONDITIONS POSSIBLY INTERRUPTED BY OFFSHORE MOVING
STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND CHOPPY SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH STORMS
INTO EARLY EVENING.

THU-SUN...GENERALLY FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS THRU THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. ATLC RIDGE AXIS WILL MEANDER OVER THE CNTRL/SRN FL
PENINSULA...MAINTAINING A GENTLE TO MODERATE S/SWRLY BREEZE OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS...BCMG S/SE NEAR THE COAST EACH AFTN WITH THE
FORMATION OF THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE. SEAS GENERALLY 2-3FT
AREAWIDE...OCNLY UP TO 4FT OVER THE OFFSHORE LEG N OF SEBASTIAN
INLET. PRIMARY MARINE THREAT WILL BE TSRAS MVG OFFSHORE IN THE LATE
AFTNS/EARLY EVNGS THAT WILL BE CAPABLE OF GENERATING SFC WIND GUSTS
IN EXCESS OF 35KTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  91  73  90  75 /  40  20  50  30
MCO  94  75  93  74 /  40  20  40  20
MLB  92  74  89  76 /  40  30  50  30
VRB  90  73  89  75 /  30  30  50  30
LEE  93  76  93  76 /  40  20  40  20
SFB  95  76  93  75 /  40  20  40  20
ORL  94  77  93  75 /  40  20  40  20
FPR  91  73  89  74 /  30  30  40  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PENDERGRAST
LONG TERM....BRAGAW





000
FXUS62 KMLB 010755
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
355 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WL CONTINUE TO
MANIFEST LOCALLY WITH SUPPRESSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS
JUST SOUTH OF CENTRAL FL. SW STEERING FLOW ON THE ORDER OF 15 TO
20 KT ALONG WITH PRESENCE OF PWAT VALUES OF 1.8 TO 2 INCHES WL
HELP PROMOTE AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT OF SCT LIGHTNING STORMS.
PROXIMITY OF SFC RIDGE ALONG WITH LIGHTER NR SFC WINDS WL LEAD TO
BOUNDARY DRIVEN CONVECTION THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. MID
RANGE SCT VALUES WL BE USED AREA WIDE  WITH EARLY PCPN MOVING EWD
FROM THE FL WEST COAST AND FILLING IN COVERAGE BY EARLY AFTN WITH
AN INCREASE IN LIGHTNING STORMS ONCE BOUNDARIES INTERACT. THE MAIN
CONCERN WL BE FOR SFC WINDS GUSTS AND LIGHTNING. EVENING STORMS
WILL TRANSITION TO THE COAST AND OFFSHORE DURING THE EVENING AND
LARGELY COME TO AN END OVER LAND FROM AROUND 10 TO 11 PM.

THU-FRI...FAIRLY TYPICAL MID SUMMER WX IN PLAY FOR CENTRAL FL
THRU THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. A POSITIVE PNA PHASE ACRS NOAM WILL
MAINTAIN A TROFING PATTERN ACRS THE ERN CONUS WHILE THE H30-H20
JET STREAM PUSHES THE STORM SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
INTO ERN CANADA...TO BE FOLLOWED BY A SECOND SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY
OVER THE NRN PLAINS. THIS WILL KEEP THE ATLC RIDGE AXIS SUPPRESSED
OVER THE S HALF OF THE FL PENINSULA...RESULTING IN A DEEP AND
STEADY SWRLY FLOW THRU THE H100-H50 LYR.

UNDER SUCH FLOW REGIMES...THE E FL PENINSULA TENDS TO BE FAVORED FOR
DIURNAL CONVECTION. REGIONAL MOISTURE IS SUFFICIENT FOR SCT POPS
WITH MEAN RH ARND 60PCT THRU BOTH THE H100-H70 AND H85-H50 LYRS.
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WILL BE IN PLACE AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROFING PATTERN GENERATES A WEAKNESS IN THE WRN
EXTENSION OF THE ATLC RIDGE. H70 TEMPS ARND 8C AND H50 TEMPS ARND
-9C WILL YIELD LAPSE RATES ARND 6.5C/KM THRU THE LYR. MID LVL
VORTICITY WILL BE LACKING BUT AN H30-H20 ANTICYCLONE CENTERED JUST N
OF THE BAHAMA BANK WILL INTERACT WITH THE ERN TROF TO GENERATE A
SOURCE OF UPR LVL EVACUATION.

WILL GO WITH A 40-50 INTERIOR/COASTAL SPLIT...SLIGHTLY LOWER ALONG
THE TREASURE COAST DUE TO THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE SHADOW THAT WILL DVLP
IN THE DEEP SW FLOW. TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABV AVG AS IS COMMON IN SW
FLOW...MAXES IN THE L/M90S...MINS L/M70S.

SAT-TUE...
UPDATE TO FOLLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDS AREAWIDE THROUGH 01/15Z THEN ISOLD SHRA/TS MOVING INTO
NRN LOCATIONS FM ISM-MCO-LEE-SFB PRODUCING MVFR CONDS. FM
01/16-01/20Z INCRSG CVG OF SHRA/TS WITH MVFR PRIMARY IN AFFECTED
AREAS ALNG WITH ISOLD IFR CONDS BRIEFLY IN TS THROUGH 02/01Z.
BECMG VFR AREA WIDE AFT 02/02Z.

&&

.MARINE...
PROXIMITY OF HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WL BRING S/SW WINDS GENERALLY 10
KT OR LESS WITH SEAS 1 TO 3 FT THROUGH TUE EVENING. AN ONSHORE
SEABREEZE EXPECTED AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST FROM AROUND 2 PM THROUGH
8 PM WITH CONDITIONS POSSIBLY INTERRUPTED BY OFFSHORE MOVING
STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND CHOPPY SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH STORMS
INTO EARLY EVENING.

THU-SUN...GENERALLY FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS THRU THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. ATLC RIDGE AXIS WILL MEANDER OVER THE CNTRL/SRN FL
PENINSULA...MAINTAINING A GENTLE TO MODERATE S/SWRLY BREEZE OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS...BCMG S/SE NEAR THE COAST EACH AFTN WITH THE
FORMATION OF THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE. SEAS GENERALLY 2-3FT
AREAWIDE...OCNLY UP TO 4FT OVER THE OFFSHORE LEG N OF SEBASTIAN
INLET. PRIMARY MARINE THREAT WILL BE TSRAS MVG OFFSHORE IN THE LATE
AFTNS/EARLY EVNGS THAT WILL BE CAPABLE OF GENERATING SFC WIND GUSTS
IN EXCESS OF 35KTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  91  73  90  75 /  40  20  50  30
MCO  94  75  93  74 /  40  20  40  20
MLB  92  74  89  76 /  40  30  50  30
VRB  90  73  89  75 /  30  30  50  30
LEE  93  76  93  76 /  40  20  40  20
SFB  95  76  93  75 /  40  20  40  20
ORL  94  77  93  75 /  40  20  40  20
FPR  91  73  89  74 /  30  30  40  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PENDERGRAST
LONG TERM....BRAGAW




000
FXUS62 KMLB 010755
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
355 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WL CONTINUE TO
MANIFEST LOCALLY WITH SUPPRESSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS
JUST SOUTH OF CENTRAL FL. SW STEERING FLOW ON THE ORDER OF 15 TO
20 KT ALONG WITH PRESENCE OF PWAT VALUES OF 1.8 TO 2 INCHES WL
HELP PROMOTE AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT OF SCT LIGHTNING STORMS.
PROXIMITY OF SFC RIDGE ALONG WITH LIGHTER NR SFC WINDS WL LEAD TO
BOUNDARY DRIVEN CONVECTION THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. MID
RANGE SCT VALUES WL BE USED AREA WIDE  WITH EARLY PCPN MOVING EWD
FROM THE FL WEST COAST AND FILLING IN COVERAGE BY EARLY AFTN WITH
AN INCREASE IN LIGHTNING STORMS ONCE BOUNDARIES INTERACT. THE MAIN
CONCERN WL BE FOR SFC WINDS GUSTS AND LIGHTNING. EVENING STORMS
WILL TRANSITION TO THE COAST AND OFFSHORE DURING THE EVENING AND
LARGELY COME TO AN END OVER LAND FROM AROUND 10 TO 11 PM.

THU-FRI...FAIRLY TYPICAL MID SUMMER WX IN PLAY FOR CENTRAL FL
THRU THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. A POSITIVE PNA PHASE ACRS NOAM WILL
MAINTAIN A TROFING PATTERN ACRS THE ERN CONUS WHILE THE H30-H20
JET STREAM PUSHES THE STORM SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
INTO ERN CANADA...TO BE FOLLOWED BY A SECOND SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY
OVER THE NRN PLAINS. THIS WILL KEEP THE ATLC RIDGE AXIS SUPPRESSED
OVER THE S HALF OF THE FL PENINSULA...RESULTING IN A DEEP AND
STEADY SWRLY FLOW THRU THE H100-H50 LYR.

UNDER SUCH FLOW REGIMES...THE E FL PENINSULA TENDS TO BE FAVORED FOR
DIURNAL CONVECTION. REGIONAL MOISTURE IS SUFFICIENT FOR SCT POPS
WITH MEAN RH ARND 60PCT THRU BOTH THE H100-H70 AND H85-H50 LYRS.
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WILL BE IN PLACE AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROFING PATTERN GENERATES A WEAKNESS IN THE WRN
EXTENSION OF THE ATLC RIDGE. H70 TEMPS ARND 8C AND H50 TEMPS ARND
-9C WILL YIELD LAPSE RATES ARND 6.5C/KM THRU THE LYR. MID LVL
VORTICITY WILL BE LACKING BUT AN H30-H20 ANTICYCLONE CENTERED JUST N
OF THE BAHAMA BANK WILL INTERACT WITH THE ERN TROF TO GENERATE A
SOURCE OF UPR LVL EVACUATION.

WILL GO WITH A 40-50 INTERIOR/COASTAL SPLIT...SLIGHTLY LOWER ALONG
THE TREASURE COAST DUE TO THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE SHADOW THAT WILL DVLP
IN THE DEEP SW FLOW. TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABV AVG AS IS COMMON IN SW
FLOW...MAXES IN THE L/M90S...MINS L/M70S.

SAT-TUE...
UPDATE TO FOLLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDS AREAWIDE THROUGH 01/15Z THEN ISOLD SHRA/TS MOVING INTO
NRN LOCATIONS FM ISM-MCO-LEE-SFB PRODUCING MVFR CONDS. FM
01/16-01/20Z INCRSG CVG OF SHRA/TS WITH MVFR PRIMARY IN AFFECTED
AREAS ALNG WITH ISOLD IFR CONDS BRIEFLY IN TS THROUGH 02/01Z.
BECMG VFR AREA WIDE AFT 02/02Z.

&&

.MARINE...
PROXIMITY OF HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WL BRING S/SW WINDS GENERALLY 10
KT OR LESS WITH SEAS 1 TO 3 FT THROUGH TUE EVENING. AN ONSHORE
SEABREEZE EXPECTED AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST FROM AROUND 2 PM THROUGH
8 PM WITH CONDITIONS POSSIBLY INTERRUPTED BY OFFSHORE MOVING
STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND CHOPPY SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH STORMS
INTO EARLY EVENING.

THU-SUN...GENERALLY FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS THRU THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. ATLC RIDGE AXIS WILL MEANDER OVER THE CNTRL/SRN FL
PENINSULA...MAINTAINING A GENTLE TO MODERATE S/SWRLY BREEZE OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS...BCMG S/SE NEAR THE COAST EACH AFTN WITH THE
FORMATION OF THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE. SEAS GENERALLY 2-3FT
AREAWIDE...OCNLY UP TO 4FT OVER THE OFFSHORE LEG N OF SEBASTIAN
INLET. PRIMARY MARINE THREAT WILL BE TSRAS MVG OFFSHORE IN THE LATE
AFTNS/EARLY EVNGS THAT WILL BE CAPABLE OF GENERATING SFC WIND GUSTS
IN EXCESS OF 35KTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  91  73  90  75 /  40  20  50  30
MCO  94  75  93  74 /  40  20  40  20
MLB  92  74  89  76 /  40  30  50  30
VRB  90  73  89  75 /  30  30  50  30
LEE  93  76  93  76 /  40  20  40  20
SFB  95  76  93  75 /  40  20  40  20
ORL  94  77  93  75 /  40  20  40  20
FPR  91  73  89  74 /  30  30  40  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PENDERGRAST
LONG TERM....BRAGAW





000
FXUS62 KMLB 010137
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
937 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT-OVERNIGHT...DRIER AIR ALOFT AS EVIDENT FROM EARLIER TAMPA
SOUNDING KEPT STORMS FROM POPPING NORTHWARD TODAY BUT STRONG BOUNDARY
COLLISIONS SOUTHWARD HAVE PROMOTED GROWTH OF STRONG STORMS WITH
STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS ALONG THE TREASURE COAST AND OKEECHOBEE
COUNTY. A FEW SHOWERS THIS EVENING ALONG THE I-4 CORRIDOR AS WELL.
EXPECTING ACTIVITY TO DECREASE/DISSIPATE LATE THIS EVENING.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S WITH SKIES MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY. WILL UPDATE ZONES LATER TO CLEAN UP FIRST
PERIOD WORDING.

WED...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S.
WILL KEEP ATL RIDGE AXIS SOUTH OF THE AREA WED. MODELS SHOW LOW
LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW WEAKENS...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE TO FORM ALONG MUCH OF THE COAST. HOWEVER IT WILL STILL LIKELY
BE DELAYED WITH LITTLE INLAND MOVEMENT EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY FROM
THE CAPE NORTHWARD. MOS POPS VARY FOR TOMORROW WITH GFS/MAV GUIDANCE
THE DRIER OUTLIER FROM THE NAM AND ECMWF MOS. LOOKS LIKE THERE
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR ISO-SCT
SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE IN THE AFT SO HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE LATTER
GUIDANCE WITH POPS RANGING FROM 30-40 PERCENT. BEST CHANCE FOR
BOUNDARY COLLISIONS AND ANY STRONGER STORMS WILL BE OVER THE
INTERIOR AND TOWARD THE BREVARD/VOLUSIA COASTS. HIGHS FORECAST IN
THE LOW 90S ACROSS THE COAST TO MID 90S OVER THE INTERIOR.

&&

.AVIATION...STRONG BOUNDARY COLLISIONS THIS EVENING SOUTH OF KMCO
THRU THE TREASURE COAST. FEW SHRA`S ALONG THE I-4 CORRIDOR THRU THIS
EVENING BEFORE THEY DISSIPATE. LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WITH THINNING
CLOUDS.

WED...ISO/SCT AFT SHRA/TSRA FORECAST FOR TOMORROW AFT. SEA BREEZE
SHOULD BE ABLE TO FORM ALONG MUCH OF THE COAST DUE TO A WEAKER
OFFSHORE FLOW. GREATEST STORM COVERAGE EXPECTED WITH ANY BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND TOWARD THE VOLUSIA/BREVARD
COASTS LATER IN THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...OVERNIGHT-WED...RIDGE AXIS STILL SOUTH OF THE WATERS BUT
CREEPS BACK NORTHWARD TOWARD LAKE OKEECHOBEE DURING THE DAY ON WED.
S/SW WINDS INTO WED...BACKING TO ESE ALONG THE SPACE/TREASURE COASTS
IN THE AFTERNOON WITH ECSB FORMATION. WIND SPEEDS MAY APPROACH 15
KTS OVERNIGHT OVER THE OPEN ATLC FALLING BACK TO AROUND 5-10 KTS
EARLY ON WED.

ALSO THIS EVENING...FEW STRONG OFFSHORE MOVING STORMS FORT PIERCE
SOUTHWARD THRU LATE EVENING WITH GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 KTS
WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SEDLOCK/CRISTALDI




000
FXUS62 KMLB 010137
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
937 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT-OVERNIGHT...DRIER AIR ALOFT AS EVIDENT FROM EARLIER TAMPA
SOUNDING KEPT STORMS FROM POPPING NORTHWARD TODAY BUT STRONG BOUNDARY
COLLISIONS SOUTHWARD HAVE PROMOTED GROWTH OF STRONG STORMS WITH
STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS ALONG THE TREASURE COAST AND OKEECHOBEE
COUNTY. A FEW SHOWERS THIS EVENING ALONG THE I-4 CORRIDOR AS WELL.
EXPECTING ACTIVITY TO DECREASE/DISSIPATE LATE THIS EVENING.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S WITH SKIES MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY. WILL UPDATE ZONES LATER TO CLEAN UP FIRST
PERIOD WORDING.

WED...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S.
WILL KEEP ATL RIDGE AXIS SOUTH OF THE AREA WED. MODELS SHOW LOW
LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW WEAKENS...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE TO FORM ALONG MUCH OF THE COAST. HOWEVER IT WILL STILL LIKELY
BE DELAYED WITH LITTLE INLAND MOVEMENT EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY FROM
THE CAPE NORTHWARD. MOS POPS VARY FOR TOMORROW WITH GFS/MAV GUIDANCE
THE DRIER OUTLIER FROM THE NAM AND ECMWF MOS. LOOKS LIKE THERE
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR ISO-SCT
SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE IN THE AFT SO HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE LATTER
GUIDANCE WITH POPS RANGING FROM 30-40 PERCENT. BEST CHANCE FOR
BOUNDARY COLLISIONS AND ANY STRONGER STORMS WILL BE OVER THE
INTERIOR AND TOWARD THE BREVARD/VOLUSIA COASTS. HIGHS FORECAST IN
THE LOW 90S ACROSS THE COAST TO MID 90S OVER THE INTERIOR.

&&

.AVIATION...STRONG BOUNDARY COLLISIONS THIS EVENING SOUTH OF KMCO
THRU THE TREASURE COAST. FEW SHRA`S ALONG THE I-4 CORRIDOR THRU THIS
EVENING BEFORE THEY DISSIPATE. LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WITH THINNING
CLOUDS.

WED...ISO/SCT AFT SHRA/TSRA FORECAST FOR TOMORROW AFT. SEA BREEZE
SHOULD BE ABLE TO FORM ALONG MUCH OF THE COAST DUE TO A WEAKER
OFFSHORE FLOW. GREATEST STORM COVERAGE EXPECTED WITH ANY BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND TOWARD THE VOLUSIA/BREVARD
COASTS LATER IN THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...OVERNIGHT-WED...RIDGE AXIS STILL SOUTH OF THE WATERS BUT
CREEPS BACK NORTHWARD TOWARD LAKE OKEECHOBEE DURING THE DAY ON WED.
S/SW WINDS INTO WED...BACKING TO ESE ALONG THE SPACE/TREASURE COASTS
IN THE AFTERNOON WITH ECSB FORMATION. WIND SPEEDS MAY APPROACH 15
KTS OVERNIGHT OVER THE OPEN ATLC FALLING BACK TO AROUND 5-10 KTS
EARLY ON WED.

ALSO THIS EVENING...FEW STRONG OFFSHORE MOVING STORMS FORT PIERCE
SOUTHWARD THRU LATE EVENING WITH GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 KTS
WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SEDLOCK/CRISTALDI





000
FXUS62 KMLB 010137
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
937 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT-OVERNIGHT...DRIER AIR ALOFT AS EVIDENT FROM EARLIER TAMPA
SOUNDING KEPT STORMS FROM POPPING NORTHWARD TODAY BUT STRONG BOUNDARY
COLLISIONS SOUTHWARD HAVE PROMOTED GROWTH OF STRONG STORMS WITH
STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS ALONG THE TREASURE COAST AND OKEECHOBEE
COUNTY. A FEW SHOWERS THIS EVENING ALONG THE I-4 CORRIDOR AS WELL.
EXPECTING ACTIVITY TO DECREASE/DISSIPATE LATE THIS EVENING.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S WITH SKIES MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY. WILL UPDATE ZONES LATER TO CLEAN UP FIRST
PERIOD WORDING.

WED...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S.
WILL KEEP ATL RIDGE AXIS SOUTH OF THE AREA WED. MODELS SHOW LOW
LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW WEAKENS...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE TO FORM ALONG MUCH OF THE COAST. HOWEVER IT WILL STILL LIKELY
BE DELAYED WITH LITTLE INLAND MOVEMENT EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY FROM
THE CAPE NORTHWARD. MOS POPS VARY FOR TOMORROW WITH GFS/MAV GUIDANCE
THE DRIER OUTLIER FROM THE NAM AND ECMWF MOS. LOOKS LIKE THERE
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR ISO-SCT
SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE IN THE AFT SO HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE LATTER
GUIDANCE WITH POPS RANGING FROM 30-40 PERCENT. BEST CHANCE FOR
BOUNDARY COLLISIONS AND ANY STRONGER STORMS WILL BE OVER THE
INTERIOR AND TOWARD THE BREVARD/VOLUSIA COASTS. HIGHS FORECAST IN
THE LOW 90S ACROSS THE COAST TO MID 90S OVER THE INTERIOR.

&&

.AVIATION...STRONG BOUNDARY COLLISIONS THIS EVENING SOUTH OF KMCO
THRU THE TREASURE COAST. FEW SHRA`S ALONG THE I-4 CORRIDOR THRU THIS
EVENING BEFORE THEY DISSIPATE. LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WITH THINNING
CLOUDS.

WED...ISO/SCT AFT SHRA/TSRA FORECAST FOR TOMORROW AFT. SEA BREEZE
SHOULD BE ABLE TO FORM ALONG MUCH OF THE COAST DUE TO A WEAKER
OFFSHORE FLOW. GREATEST STORM COVERAGE EXPECTED WITH ANY BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND TOWARD THE VOLUSIA/BREVARD
COASTS LATER IN THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...OVERNIGHT-WED...RIDGE AXIS STILL SOUTH OF THE WATERS BUT
CREEPS BACK NORTHWARD TOWARD LAKE OKEECHOBEE DURING THE DAY ON WED.
S/SW WINDS INTO WED...BACKING TO ESE ALONG THE SPACE/TREASURE COASTS
IN THE AFTERNOON WITH ECSB FORMATION. WIND SPEEDS MAY APPROACH 15
KTS OVERNIGHT OVER THE OPEN ATLC FALLING BACK TO AROUND 5-10 KTS
EARLY ON WED.

ALSO THIS EVENING...FEW STRONG OFFSHORE MOVING STORMS FORT PIERCE
SOUTHWARD THRU LATE EVENING WITH GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 KTS
WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SEDLOCK/CRISTALDI




000
FXUS62 KMLB 010137
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
937 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT-OVERNIGHT...DRIER AIR ALOFT AS EVIDENT FROM EARLIER TAMPA
SOUNDING KEPT STORMS FROM POPPING NORTHWARD TODAY BUT STRONG BOUNDARY
COLLISIONS SOUTHWARD HAVE PROMOTED GROWTH OF STRONG STORMS WITH
STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS ALONG THE TREASURE COAST AND OKEECHOBEE
COUNTY. A FEW SHOWERS THIS EVENING ALONG THE I-4 CORRIDOR AS WELL.
EXPECTING ACTIVITY TO DECREASE/DISSIPATE LATE THIS EVENING.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S WITH SKIES MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY. WILL UPDATE ZONES LATER TO CLEAN UP FIRST
PERIOD WORDING.

WED...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S.
WILL KEEP ATL RIDGE AXIS SOUTH OF THE AREA WED. MODELS SHOW LOW
LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW WEAKENS...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE TO FORM ALONG MUCH OF THE COAST. HOWEVER IT WILL STILL LIKELY
BE DELAYED WITH LITTLE INLAND MOVEMENT EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY FROM
THE CAPE NORTHWARD. MOS POPS VARY FOR TOMORROW WITH GFS/MAV GUIDANCE
THE DRIER OUTLIER FROM THE NAM AND ECMWF MOS. LOOKS LIKE THERE
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR ISO-SCT
SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE IN THE AFT SO HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE LATTER
GUIDANCE WITH POPS RANGING FROM 30-40 PERCENT. BEST CHANCE FOR
BOUNDARY COLLISIONS AND ANY STRONGER STORMS WILL BE OVER THE
INTERIOR AND TOWARD THE BREVARD/VOLUSIA COASTS. HIGHS FORECAST IN
THE LOW 90S ACROSS THE COAST TO MID 90S OVER THE INTERIOR.

&&

.AVIATION...STRONG BOUNDARY COLLISIONS THIS EVENING SOUTH OF KMCO
THRU THE TREASURE COAST. FEW SHRA`S ALONG THE I-4 CORRIDOR THRU THIS
EVENING BEFORE THEY DISSIPATE. LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WITH THINNING
CLOUDS.

WED...ISO/SCT AFT SHRA/TSRA FORECAST FOR TOMORROW AFT. SEA BREEZE
SHOULD BE ABLE TO FORM ALONG MUCH OF THE COAST DUE TO A WEAKER
OFFSHORE FLOW. GREATEST STORM COVERAGE EXPECTED WITH ANY BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND TOWARD THE VOLUSIA/BREVARD
COASTS LATER IN THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...OVERNIGHT-WED...RIDGE AXIS STILL SOUTH OF THE WATERS BUT
CREEPS BACK NORTHWARD TOWARD LAKE OKEECHOBEE DURING THE DAY ON WED.
S/SW WINDS INTO WED...BACKING TO ESE ALONG THE SPACE/TREASURE COASTS
IN THE AFTERNOON WITH ECSB FORMATION. WIND SPEEDS MAY APPROACH 15
KTS OVERNIGHT OVER THE OPEN ATLC FALLING BACK TO AROUND 5-10 KTS
EARLY ON WED.

ALSO THIS EVENING...FEW STRONG OFFSHORE MOVING STORMS FORT PIERCE
SOUTHWARD THRU LATE EVENING WITH GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 KTS
WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SEDLOCK/CRISTALDI





000
FXUS62 KMLB 301859
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
259 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY-TONIGHT...DRIER AIR ALOFT THAT WAS EVIDENT IN THE MORNING
SOUNDING FROM TAMPA HAS KEEP CONVECTION LIMITED SO FAR THIS AFT AS
IT HAS SPREAD EASTWARD. HRRR MODEL STILL INDICATING SOME INCREASE IN
SHOWERS AND STORMS BUT COVERAGE SHOULD STILL REMAIN ON THE LOWER
END WITH BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN ALONG THE COAST INTO LATE AFT AND
SUNSET. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE WHERE BOUNDARY COLLISIONS
OCCUR ALONG THE STALLED EAST COAST SEA BREEZE SOUTH OF THE CAPE.
ANY PRECIP WILL PUSH OFFSHORE INTO THE EARLY EVE WITH RAIN CHANCES
ENDING FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOW TO MID 70S WITH SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY.

WED...MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL KEEP ATL RIDGE
AXIS SOUTH OF THE AREA WED. MODELS SHOW LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW
WEAKENS...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE TO FORM ALONG
MUCH OF THE COAST. HOWEVER IT WILL STILL LIKELY BE DELAYED WITH
LITTLE INLAND MOVEMENT EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPE
NORTHWARD. MOS POPS VARY FOR TOMORROW WITH GFS/MAV GUIDANCE THE
DRIER OUTLIER FROM THE NAM AND ECMWF MOS. LOOKS LIKE THERE SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR ISO-SCT SHOWER/STORM
COVERAGE IN THE AFT SO HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE LATTER GUIDANCE WITH
POPS RANGING FROM 30-40 PERCENT. BEST CHANCE FOR BOUNDARY COLLISIONS
AND ANY STRONGER STORMS WILL BE OVER THE INTERIOR AND TOWARD THE
BREVARD/VOLUSIA COASTS. HIGHS FORECAST IN THE LOW 90S ACROSS THE
COAST TO MID 90S OVER THE INTERIOR.

PREVIOUS EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

THU-FRI...SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS SHOWN BY GFS DRIFTING NWD TO A
POSITION NR CENTRAL FL BY THU A LIGHTER WIND REGIME WL LEAD TO MORE
TYPICAL COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON STORMS...SLIGHTLY DELAYED FOR ONSET
DUE TO THE NEED FOR SFC HEATING AND BOUNDARY CONDITIONS TO INITIATE
ACTIVITY. THE WEAK WIND PROFILE THU-FRI WL FAVOR INTERIOR SECTIONS
GENERALLY FOR BEST COVERAGE.

SAT-MON...THE AXIS OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS SHOWN DRIFTING NEAR
TO JUST NORTH OF THE AREA DURING THE WEEKEND. MARINE BASED SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE BY SAT NIGHT/SUN WITH AT LEAST SEASONALLY TO LOW END
SCT COVERAGE AREAWIDE A GOOD BET INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...STORM COVERAGE HAS REMAINED LIMITED DUE TO DRIER AIR
ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION. MAY STILL SEE ISO-SCT SHRA/TSRA MAINLY
TOWARD THE COAST INTO LATE AFT/EARLY EVE...ESPECIALLY WITH BOUNDARY
COLLISIONS FROM KVRB-KSUA. ANY CONVECTION THAT FORMS WILL DIMINISH
AND PUSH OFFSHORE BY LATE EVE WITH RAIN CHANCES ENDING ACROSS THE
AREA.

ISO/SCT AFT SHRA/TSRA FORECAST FOR TOMORROW AFT. SEA BREEZE SHOULD
BE ABLE TO FORM ALONG MUCH OF THE COAST DUE TO A WEAKER OFFSHORE
FLOW. GREATEST STORM COVERAGE EXPECTED WITH ANY BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND TOWARD THE VOLUSIA/BREVARD
COASTS LATER IN THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...

TONIGHT...RIDGE AXIS SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN WINDS OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT UP TO 10-15 KNOTS WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 1-3
FEET. A FEW OFFSHORE MOVING STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE INTO
THE EVENING HOURS.

WED-SAT...(PREVIOUS DISCUSSION) THE RIDGE AXIS SITUATED JUST S OF
THE AREA THROUGH MIDWEEK WL PROVIDE FAVORABLE MARINE CONDS DUE TO
WLY COMPONENT WITH A LIMITED SEA BREEZE POTENTIAL. STORMS MOVING
OFFSHORE FROM THE MAINLAND WL PRODUCE LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS
IN THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING HOURS WED-THU.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  72  93  74  93 /  20  40  20  40
MCO  74  95  75  94 /  10  40  20  50
MLB  73  92  75  92 /  20  40  30  30
VRB  72  93  75  92 /  30  30  30  30
LEE  75  94  76  94 /  10  40  20  40
SFB  74  95  76  94 /  20  40  20  40
ORL  75  95  77  94 /  10  40  20  50
FPR  71  93  74  92 /  30  30  30  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

FORECAST GRIDS...WEITLICH/ULRICH
AVIATION...WEITLICH
IMPACT WEATHER/RADAR....VOLKMER




000
FXUS62 KMLB 301349
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
949 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...DEEP WESTERLY FLOW PERSISTS OVER THE REGION TODAY
BETWEEN RIDGE AXIS TO THE SOUTH AND MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS. MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOW DRIER AIR ALOFT OVER WEST
CENTRAL FL THAT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY. THIS
WILL LEAD TO LOWER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THAN YESTERDAY.
HOWEVER SHOULD STILL SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PENINSULA AND PUSHING EASTWARD INTO THE
AFTERNOON. BEST RAIN CHANCES (UP TO 40 PERCENT) WILL RESIDE ALONG
THE COAST FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WITH BOUNDARY OR STORM
INTERACTIONS THAT OCCUR WITH THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE. OFFSHORE
FLOW IS NOT AS STRONG AS YESTERDAY...SO SHOULD SEE THE SEA BREEZE
FORM AND STALL ALONG COASTAL AREAS MAINLY FROM THE CAPE SOUTHWARD.
A FEW STRONGER STORMS PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AS THEY PUSH OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE
TODAY.

PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND LOWER COVERAGE OF CONVECTION SHOULD ALLOW
HIGHS TO REACH THE LOW 90S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER COASTAL
AREAS WHERE THE SEA BREEZE IS SIGNIFICANTLY DELAYED OR DOES NOT
DEVELOP AT ALL MAY BE ABLE TO REACH THE MID 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE MORNING. NOT EXPECTING AS HIGH
OF COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA AS YESTERDAY DUE TO DRIER AIR ALOFT
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER WILL STILL SEE ISO/SCT
CONVECTION DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL FL INTO THE AFT AND PUSH EAST
TOWARD THE COAST. BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS AND TEMPO IFR/MVFR CONDS
WILL EXIST ALONG COASTAL AREAS FROM KTIX-KSUA DUE TO BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS THAT OCCUR WITH THE STALLED EAST COAST SEA BREEZE.

&&

.MARINE...WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL BECOME
MORE S/SE NEAR THE COAST WHERE THE SEA BREEZE FORMS AND MOVES
SLIGHTLY INLAND FROM THE CAPE SOUTHWARD. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 1-3
FEET. A FEW STRONG OFFSHORE MOVING STORMS PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THIS AFT.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

WEITLICH/VOLKMER





000
FXUS62 KMLB 301349
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
949 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...DEEP WESTERLY FLOW PERSISTS OVER THE REGION TODAY
BETWEEN RIDGE AXIS TO THE SOUTH AND MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS. MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOW DRIER AIR ALOFT OVER WEST
CENTRAL FL THAT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY. THIS
WILL LEAD TO LOWER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THAN YESTERDAY.
HOWEVER SHOULD STILL SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PENINSULA AND PUSHING EASTWARD INTO THE
AFTERNOON. BEST RAIN CHANCES (UP TO 40 PERCENT) WILL RESIDE ALONG
THE COAST FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WITH BOUNDARY OR STORM
INTERACTIONS THAT OCCUR WITH THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE. OFFSHORE
FLOW IS NOT AS STRONG AS YESTERDAY...SO SHOULD SEE THE SEA BREEZE
FORM AND STALL ALONG COASTAL AREAS MAINLY FROM THE CAPE SOUTHWARD.
A FEW STRONGER STORMS PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AS THEY PUSH OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE
TODAY.

PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND LOWER COVERAGE OF CONVECTION SHOULD ALLOW
HIGHS TO REACH THE LOW 90S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER COASTAL
AREAS WHERE THE SEA BREEZE IS SIGNIFICANTLY DELAYED OR DOES NOT
DEVELOP AT ALL MAY BE ABLE TO REACH THE MID 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE MORNING. NOT EXPECTING AS HIGH
OF COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA AS YESTERDAY DUE TO DRIER AIR ALOFT
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER WILL STILL SEE ISO/SCT
CONVECTION DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL FL INTO THE AFT AND PUSH EAST
TOWARD THE COAST. BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS AND TEMPO IFR/MVFR CONDS
WILL EXIST ALONG COASTAL AREAS FROM KTIX-KSUA DUE TO BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS THAT OCCUR WITH THE STALLED EAST COAST SEA BREEZE.

&&

.MARINE...WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL BECOME
MORE S/SE NEAR THE COAST WHERE THE SEA BREEZE FORMS AND MOVES
SLIGHTLY INLAND FROM THE CAPE SOUTHWARD. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 1-3
FEET. A FEW STRONG OFFSHORE MOVING STORMS PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THIS AFT.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

WEITLICH/VOLKMER




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