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000
FXUS62 KMLB 021406
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1005 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS THE H100-H70 ATLC RIDGE AXIS PARKED OVER THE
PANHANDLE EXTENDING EWD TO BERMUDA...WHILE LATEST WV IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO SHOW A BAND OF DRY MID LVL AIR OVER THE S HALF OF THE
PENINSULA. MORNING SOUNDINGS CONFIRM THIS AS KXMR/KTBW/MFL ALL SHOW
A DEEP E/NE FLOW WITH PWAT VALUES ARND 1.7"...KJAX DISPLAYING WRLY
LOW LVL FLOW WITH PWAT ARND 2.0". RADAR PICKING UP ISOLD SHRAS
FORMING IN THE WAKE EDDIES OF THE NRN BAHAMAS.

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE RECENT WX PATTERN AS A LOW AMP TROF PUSHES ACRS
THE MS/MO RIVER VALLEYS AND KEEPS THE ATLC RIDGE IN PLACE. DEEP ERLY
FLOW WILL ALLOW THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE TO FORM BEFORE MIDDAY AND
PUSH WELL INLAND. SOME COOLING HAS OCCURRED ALOFT WITH H50 TEMPS
DOWN TO ARND -7C...HOWEVER H70 TEMPS ARND 10C WILL DELAY THE
FORMATION OF TSRAS UNTIL LATE AFTN. BY THEN...THE SEA BREEZE MOST
LIKELY WILL BE ALONG OR W OF THE FL TURNPIKE.

ONE NOTEWORTHY FEATURE IS A 40-50KT H25 JET STEAK CLIPPING THE SE
PENINSULA THAT SHOULD PROVIDE SOME DIVERGENCE ALOFT...THUS ENHANCING
STORM POTENTIAL OVER THE INTERIOR THIS AFTN. COMBINED WITH DRY AIR
ALOFT AND H70-H50 LAPSE RATES INCREASING TO 6.0-6.5C/KM...EXPECT A
FEW TSRAS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 40-50MPH WIND GUSTS.

MRNG FCST PACKAGE LOOKS GOOD WITH INCREASING POPS FROM E TO W. NO
SIG CHANGES.

&&

.AVIATION...
THRU 02/18Z...BRIEF ISOLD MVFR SHRAS S OF KMLB. BTWN
02/18Z-02/24Z...S OF KTIX-KISM SCT MVFR SHRAS/ISOLD IFR TSRAS...N OF
KTIX-KISM ISOLD SHRAS/TSRAS. AFT 03/00Z...VFR ALL SITES.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK SFC RIDGE AXIS DRAPED OVER THE PANHANDLE AND EXTENDING OUT TO
BERMUDA WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT TO GENTLE E/SE BREEZE ACRS THE LCL
ATLC WATERS. SEAS AOB 2FT IN AN ERLY BACKGROUND SWELL...DOMINANT PDS
8-9SEC. ISOLD SHRAS S OF SEBASTIAN INLET DUE TO CONVERGENCE CLOUD
BANDS FORMING IN THE WAKE OF THE NRN BAHAMAS. COOLING ALOFT ALLOW A
FEW TSRAS TO FORM OVER THE GULF STREAM AFT SUNSET.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...BRAGAW
RADAR/IMPACT WX.......CRISTALDI







000
FXUS62 KMLB 021406
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1005 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS THE H100-H70 ATLC RIDGE AXIS PARKED OVER THE
PANHANDLE EXTENDING EWD TO BERMUDA...WHILE LATEST WV IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO SHOW A BAND OF DRY MID LVL AIR OVER THE S HALF OF THE
PENINSULA. MORNING SOUNDINGS CONFIRM THIS AS KXMR/KTBW/MFL ALL SHOW
A DEEP E/NE FLOW WITH PWAT VALUES ARND 1.7"...KJAX DISPLAYING WRLY
LOW LVL FLOW WITH PWAT ARND 2.0". RADAR PICKING UP ISOLD SHRAS
FORMING IN THE WAKE EDDIES OF THE NRN BAHAMAS.

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE RECENT WX PATTERN AS A LOW AMP TROF PUSHES ACRS
THE MS/MO RIVER VALLEYS AND KEEPS THE ATLC RIDGE IN PLACE. DEEP ERLY
FLOW WILL ALLOW THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE TO FORM BEFORE MIDDAY AND
PUSH WELL INLAND. SOME COOLING HAS OCCURRED ALOFT WITH H50 TEMPS
DOWN TO ARND -7C...HOWEVER H70 TEMPS ARND 10C WILL DELAY THE
FORMATION OF TSRAS UNTIL LATE AFTN. BY THEN...THE SEA BREEZE MOST
LIKELY WILL BE ALONG OR W OF THE FL TURNPIKE.

ONE NOTEWORTHY FEATURE IS A 40-50KT H25 JET STEAK CLIPPING THE SE
PENINSULA THAT SHOULD PROVIDE SOME DIVERGENCE ALOFT...THUS ENHANCING
STORM POTENTIAL OVER THE INTERIOR THIS AFTN. COMBINED WITH DRY AIR
ALOFT AND H70-H50 LAPSE RATES INCREASING TO 6.0-6.5C/KM...EXPECT A
FEW TSRAS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 40-50MPH WIND GUSTS.

MRNG FCST PACKAGE LOOKS GOOD WITH INCREASING POPS FROM E TO W. NO
SIG CHANGES.

&&

.AVIATION...
THRU 02/18Z...BRIEF ISOLD MVFR SHRAS S OF KMLB. BTWN
02/18Z-02/24Z...S OF KTIX-KISM SCT MVFR SHRAS/ISOLD IFR TSRAS...N OF
KTIX-KISM ISOLD SHRAS/TSRAS. AFT 03/00Z...VFR ALL SITES.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK SFC RIDGE AXIS DRAPED OVER THE PANHANDLE AND EXTENDING OUT TO
BERMUDA WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT TO GENTLE E/SE BREEZE ACRS THE LCL
ATLC WATERS. SEAS AOB 2FT IN AN ERLY BACKGROUND SWELL...DOMINANT PDS
8-9SEC. ISOLD SHRAS S OF SEBASTIAN INLET DUE TO CONVERGENCE CLOUD
BANDS FORMING IN THE WAKE OF THE NRN BAHAMAS. COOLING ALOFT ALLOW A
FEW TSRAS TO FORM OVER THE GULF STREAM AFT SUNSET.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...BRAGAW
RADAR/IMPACT WX.......CRISTALDI






000
FXUS62 KMLB 020737
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
337 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY-TODAY...WATER VAPOR SHOWS SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT AHEAD OF
MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT AS NEARING THE BAHAMAS. LATEST RADAR WAS
ONLY SHOWING A FEW PINHEAD SHOWERS OVER THE ATLANTIC.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS JUST TO OUR NORTH WILL PROVIDE A
WEAK ONSHORE WIND FLOW. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE RECENT PATTERN
WITH THE MAIN CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS INTERIOR AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA. HAVE GONE WITH 20 POPS AT THE
COAST AND 30 INLAND AGAIN.

ONE FEATURE THAT IS DIFFERENT IS A RATHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL
NORTHEASTERLY JET STREAK THAT WILL SLICE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PENINSULA. THIS COULD PROVIDE SOME DIVERGENCE ALOFT LOCALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND RESULT IN A FEW STRONGER STORMS FOR
INTERIOR SECTIONS.

TONIGHT...LITTLE CHANGE WITH WEAK ONSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW. THE GFS
CONTINUES TO SHOW A DRIER RIBBON OF AIR ALOFT AFFECTING THE AREA.
MID-UPPER LOW/TROUGH APPROACHING THE FLORIDA STRAITS MAY INCREASE
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY IN THE SOUTHERN WATERS. SO HAVE CONTINUED OUR
MENTION OF A SMALL POP FOR THE SOUTH COAST.

WED...WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE TRANSITION DAY OF THE WEEK AS MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS TRACKS THROUGH THE
FLORIDA STRAITS LATE IN THE DAY. MOST OF REGION EXPECTED TO BE IN
SUBSIDENT AND DRIER REGION AHEAD OF UPPER LEVEL FEATURE...WITH
DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH ENTERING THE REGION LATE
IN THE DAY.

HAVE BUMPED UP COVERAGE ALONG THE TREASURE COAST AND AROUND LAKE
OKEECHOBEE TO 30-40 PERCENT TO ACCOUNT FOR LATE DAY SHOWERS AND
STORMS MOVING IN THE FROM THE ATLANTIC. OTHERWISE...NOT MUCH CHANGE
TO THE ONGOING FORECAST WITH POPS REMAINING ISOLATED ALONG THE REST
OF THE COAST AS DIFFUSE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE PUSHES WESTWARDS LATE
IN THE MORNING WITH SCATTERED ACTIVITY OVER THE INTERIOR THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL SPREADING OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE COASTAL WATERS AND COASTAL AREAS THROUGH THE NIGHT
AS THE TROUGH AXIS CROSSES THE REGION.

THURS-FRI...PENINSULA WILL BE ON THE FAVORED SIDE OF THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AS IT CROSSES INTO THE EASTERN GULF EARLY ON THURSDAY
AND WEAKENS INTO FRIDAY. SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL ADVECT FAIRLY
DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH OVER EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA...WHICH ALNG WITH THE VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH
WILL BRING POPS 40-50 PERCENT BOTH DAYS. LOW LEVEL EAST-SOUTHEAST
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE INTERIOR/WESTERN SIDE OF THE
PENINSULA...BUT THE PRESENCE OF THE TROUGH SHOULD ALLOW ACTIVITY TO
CONTINUE TO MOVE ONSHORE THROUGH THE DAY...ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY.

SAT-TUES...INVERTED TROUGH DAMPENS OUT BY THE WEEKEND AS RIDGE
BUILDS BACK IN FROM THE WEST. WHILE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDING
THROUGH THE SOUTH WILL REACH INTO S GA OR N FL...ATLANTIC RIDGE AXIS
REMAINS FIRMLY IN PLACE JUST TO THE NORTH OR ACROSS THE REGION
PREVENTING FURTHER SOUTHWARD PROGRESS. HOWEVER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE BOUNDARY WILL COMBINE WITH THE REMNANT MOISTURE FROM THE
TROUGH TO KEEP POPS JUST ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 40-50 PERCENT RANGE.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH FOR BOTH SEA BREEZES TO FORM...THOUGH
EAST COAST DOMINANT...WITH ACTIVITY FAVORING THE INTERIOR IN THE
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS. STILL EXPECTING NOCTURNAL ATLANTIC SHOWERS
THROUGH THE PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR IFR IN STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE INTERIOR TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY-TONIGHT...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS JUST NORTH OF THE WATERS WILL
PRODUCE AN ONSHORE WIND FLOW...GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS. ISOLATED
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ALONG ATLANTIC CLOUD LINES PARTICULARLY IN THE
SOUTHERN WATERS. COOLING ALOFT MAY ALSO LEAD TO A FEW STORMS
ESPECIALLY TONIGHT.

WED-SUN...STEADY EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW AROUND 10KTS INTO THE WEEKEND
AS LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS REMAINS JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION.
SURFACE REFLECTION OF MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE FLORIDA
STRAITS LATE WEDNESDAY WILL BRIEFLY TIGHTEN GRADIENT...SPEEDS
10-15KTS...WHERE REST OF THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO 5-10KTS.
WILL SEE FLOW VEER MORE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST INTO SUNDAY AS RIDGE AXIS
DROPS A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH.

SEAS 2-3FT THROUGH THURS...AND 1-2FT FRI-SUN. INCREASING SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT TO THE WINDS WILL BRING CHOPPIER SEAS OVER THE SOUTHERN
WATERS AS AREA GETS SHADOWED BY THE BAHAMAS.

MAIN BOATING CONCERN WILL BE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS
OVER THE WATERS AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES PENINSULA INTO GULF.
BEST COVERAGE IN THE EVENING-MORNING PERIOD WED NIGHT-FRI...BUT
ACTIVITY WILL BE PRESENT THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  90  74  90  75 /  20  10  20  20
MCO  93  74  93  74 /  30  10  20  10
MLB  90  76  90  77 /  20  10  20  30
VRB  89  75  90  76 /  20  10  20  40
LEE  93  74  94  75 /  30  10  30  10
SFB  93  75  93  75 /  20  10  20  10
ORL  93  75  93  75 /  30  10  20  10
FPR  88  73  90  75 /  20  20  30  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LASCODY
LONG TERM....MOSES






000
FXUS62 KMLB 020737
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
337 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY-TODAY...WATER VAPOR SHOWS SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT AHEAD OF
MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT AS NEARING THE BAHAMAS. LATEST RADAR WAS
ONLY SHOWING A FEW PINHEAD SHOWERS OVER THE ATLANTIC.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS JUST TO OUR NORTH WILL PROVIDE A
WEAK ONSHORE WIND FLOW. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE RECENT PATTERN
WITH THE MAIN CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS INTERIOR AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA. HAVE GONE WITH 20 POPS AT THE
COAST AND 30 INLAND AGAIN.

ONE FEATURE THAT IS DIFFERENT IS A RATHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL
NORTHEASTERLY JET STREAK THAT WILL SLICE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PENINSULA. THIS COULD PROVIDE SOME DIVERGENCE ALOFT LOCALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND RESULT IN A FEW STRONGER STORMS FOR
INTERIOR SECTIONS.

TONIGHT...LITTLE CHANGE WITH WEAK ONSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW. THE GFS
CONTINUES TO SHOW A DRIER RIBBON OF AIR ALOFT AFFECTING THE AREA.
MID-UPPER LOW/TROUGH APPROACHING THE FLORIDA STRAITS MAY INCREASE
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY IN THE SOUTHERN WATERS. SO HAVE CONTINUED OUR
MENTION OF A SMALL POP FOR THE SOUTH COAST.

WED...WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE TRANSITION DAY OF THE WEEK AS MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS TRACKS THROUGH THE
FLORIDA STRAITS LATE IN THE DAY. MOST OF REGION EXPECTED TO BE IN
SUBSIDENT AND DRIER REGION AHEAD OF UPPER LEVEL FEATURE...WITH
DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH ENTERING THE REGION LATE
IN THE DAY.

HAVE BUMPED UP COVERAGE ALONG THE TREASURE COAST AND AROUND LAKE
OKEECHOBEE TO 30-40 PERCENT TO ACCOUNT FOR LATE DAY SHOWERS AND
STORMS MOVING IN THE FROM THE ATLANTIC. OTHERWISE...NOT MUCH CHANGE
TO THE ONGOING FORECAST WITH POPS REMAINING ISOLATED ALONG THE REST
OF THE COAST AS DIFFUSE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE PUSHES WESTWARDS LATE
IN THE MORNING WITH SCATTERED ACTIVITY OVER THE INTERIOR THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL SPREADING OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE COASTAL WATERS AND COASTAL AREAS THROUGH THE NIGHT
AS THE TROUGH AXIS CROSSES THE REGION.

THURS-FRI...PENINSULA WILL BE ON THE FAVORED SIDE OF THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AS IT CROSSES INTO THE EASTERN GULF EARLY ON THURSDAY
AND WEAKENS INTO FRIDAY. SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL ADVECT FAIRLY
DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH OVER EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA...WHICH ALNG WITH THE VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH
WILL BRING POPS 40-50 PERCENT BOTH DAYS. LOW LEVEL EAST-SOUTHEAST
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE INTERIOR/WESTERN SIDE OF THE
PENINSULA...BUT THE PRESENCE OF THE TROUGH SHOULD ALLOW ACTIVITY TO
CONTINUE TO MOVE ONSHORE THROUGH THE DAY...ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY.

SAT-TUES...INVERTED TROUGH DAMPENS OUT BY THE WEEKEND AS RIDGE
BUILDS BACK IN FROM THE WEST. WHILE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDING
THROUGH THE SOUTH WILL REACH INTO S GA OR N FL...ATLANTIC RIDGE AXIS
REMAINS FIRMLY IN PLACE JUST TO THE NORTH OR ACROSS THE REGION
PREVENTING FURTHER SOUTHWARD PROGRESS. HOWEVER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE BOUNDARY WILL COMBINE WITH THE REMNANT MOISTURE FROM THE
TROUGH TO KEEP POPS JUST ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 40-50 PERCENT RANGE.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH FOR BOTH SEA BREEZES TO FORM...THOUGH
EAST COAST DOMINANT...WITH ACTIVITY FAVORING THE INTERIOR IN THE
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS. STILL EXPECTING NOCTURNAL ATLANTIC SHOWERS
THROUGH THE PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR IFR IN STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE INTERIOR TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY-TONIGHT...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS JUST NORTH OF THE WATERS WILL
PRODUCE AN ONSHORE WIND FLOW...GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS. ISOLATED
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ALONG ATLANTIC CLOUD LINES PARTICULARLY IN THE
SOUTHERN WATERS. COOLING ALOFT MAY ALSO LEAD TO A FEW STORMS
ESPECIALLY TONIGHT.

WED-SUN...STEADY EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW AROUND 10KTS INTO THE WEEKEND
AS LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS REMAINS JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION.
SURFACE REFLECTION OF MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE FLORIDA
STRAITS LATE WEDNESDAY WILL BRIEFLY TIGHTEN GRADIENT...SPEEDS
10-15KTS...WHERE REST OF THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO 5-10KTS.
WILL SEE FLOW VEER MORE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST INTO SUNDAY AS RIDGE AXIS
DROPS A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH.

SEAS 2-3FT THROUGH THURS...AND 1-2FT FRI-SUN. INCREASING SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT TO THE WINDS WILL BRING CHOPPIER SEAS OVER THE SOUTHERN
WATERS AS AREA GETS SHADOWED BY THE BAHAMAS.

MAIN BOATING CONCERN WILL BE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS
OVER THE WATERS AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES PENINSULA INTO GULF.
BEST COVERAGE IN THE EVENING-MORNING PERIOD WED NIGHT-FRI...BUT
ACTIVITY WILL BE PRESENT THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  90  74  90  75 /  20  10  20  20
MCO  93  74  93  74 /  30  10  20  10
MLB  90  76  90  77 /  20  10  20  30
VRB  89  75  90  76 /  20  10  20  40
LEE  93  74  94  75 /  30  10  30  10
SFB  93  75  93  75 /  20  10  20  10
ORL  93  75  93  75 /  30  10  20  10
FPR  88  73  90  75 /  20  20  30  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LASCODY
LONG TERM....MOSES







000
FXUS62 KMLB 020241 AAA
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1040 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...

LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS TO THE NORTH HELPED PUSH THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE STEADILY ACROSS THE PENINSULA WITH A COLLISION OF THE WEST
COAST SEA BREEZE WEST OF THE AREA. SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR.
THERE WILL BE SOME SCRAPS OF MARINE STRATOCU PUSHING ONSHORE THE
COAST IN LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW. HAVE PARED BACK THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

TUE...ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE AS RIDGE AXIS REMAINS TO OUR
NORTH. SEA BREEZE WILL AGAIN DEVELOP LATE IN THE MORNING AND PUSH
STEADILY INLAND...SPARKING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ESP ALONG
AND JUST INLAND FROM THE TREASURE COAST.



&&

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR. PATCHY GROUND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARD MORNING UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...VERY LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH MOISTURE. ISOLD ATLC
SHRA MAY REACH THE COAST SOUTH OF VRB THROUGH 12Z. ON TUE...THE SEA
BREEZE SHOULD SPARK A FEW SHRA/TSRA ESP ALONG OR JUST INLAND FROM
THE TREASURE COAST PUSHING TO THE INTERIOR DURING THE AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS TONIGHT BECOMING EAST 10 KNOTS BY TUE
AFTN BEHIND SEA BREEZE. SEAS MOSTLY 2 FT. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY BECOMING SCATTERED TUE MORNING MAINLY NEAR THE
TREASURE COAST.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  74  90  74  90 /  20  20  10  20
MCO  74  94  74  93 /  10  30  10  20
MLB  76  90  77  90 /  20  20  10  20
VRB  74  90  75  90 /  20  20  20  20
LEE  75  94  75  94 /  10  40  10  30
SFB  75  93  75  93 /  10  20  10  20
ORL  76  94  76  93 /  10  30  10  20
FPR  73  89  74  90 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

KELLY/SEDLOCK







000
FXUS62 KMLB 020241 AAA
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1040 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...

LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS TO THE NORTH HELPED PUSH THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE STEADILY ACROSS THE PENINSULA WITH A COLLISION OF THE WEST
COAST SEA BREEZE WEST OF THE AREA. SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR.
THERE WILL BE SOME SCRAPS OF MARINE STRATOCU PUSHING ONSHORE THE
COAST IN LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW. HAVE PARED BACK THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

TUE...ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE AS RIDGE AXIS REMAINS TO OUR
NORTH. SEA BREEZE WILL AGAIN DEVELOP LATE IN THE MORNING AND PUSH
STEADILY INLAND...SPARKING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ESP ALONG
AND JUST INLAND FROM THE TREASURE COAST.



&&

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR. PATCHY GROUND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARD MORNING UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...VERY LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH MOISTURE. ISOLD ATLC
SHRA MAY REACH THE COAST SOUTH OF VRB THROUGH 12Z. ON TUE...THE SEA
BREEZE SHOULD SPARK A FEW SHRA/TSRA ESP ALONG OR JUST INLAND FROM
THE TREASURE COAST PUSHING TO THE INTERIOR DURING THE AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS TONIGHT BECOMING EAST 10 KNOTS BY TUE
AFTN BEHIND SEA BREEZE. SEAS MOSTLY 2 FT. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY BECOMING SCATTERED TUE MORNING MAINLY NEAR THE
TREASURE COAST.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  74  90  74  90 /  20  20  10  20
MCO  74  94  74  93 /  10  30  10  20
MLB  76  90  77  90 /  20  20  10  20
VRB  74  90  75  90 /  20  20  20  20
LEE  75  94  75  94 /  10  40  10  30
SFB  75  93  75  93 /  10  20  10  20
ORL  76  94  76  93 /  10  30  10  20
FPR  73  89  74  90 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

KELLY/SEDLOCK








000
FXUS62 KMLB 011909
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
309 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT...LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW GRADIENT PROVIDED BY A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE REGION REMAINS IN PLACE. ISOLD ATLC
BASED SHOWERS WILL AFFECT MAINLY THE COASTAL COUNTIES OVERNIGHT
ALONG WITH INLAND SPORT TO THE OSCEOLA TURNPIKE AND LAKE
OKEECHOBEE WITH HIT OR MISS 20 PERCENT CHC OF EXPERIENCING
ANY MEASURABLE PCPN.

TUE-WED...(FROM PREV DISC) DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL
BE JUST TO THE NORTH MID WEEK KEEPING DEEP ONSHORE FLOW IN PLACE.
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS WILL TRACK WESTWARDS
DURING THE PERIOD...WEAKENING TO AN INVERTED TROUGH AS IT APPROACHES
THE FLORIDA STRAITS LATE ON WEDNESDAY. AN OVERALL DRIER AIRMASS
LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR BOTH DAYS...ACCENTUATED ON TUESDAY AS
WE GET INTO THE SUBSIDENCE REGION AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL
FEATURE.

POPS WL REMAIN ISOLATED AT THE COAST AS DIFFUSE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE PUSHES WESTWARDS LATE IN THE MORNING WITH SCATTERED
ACTIVITY OVER THE INTERIOR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MOST ACTIVITY
LOOKS TO PUSH WEST OF THE REGION BY EARLY EVENING.

DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW/TROUGH STARTS TO ENTER THE
REGION BY LATE WEDNESDAY...TOO LATE FOR A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN
POPS DURING THE DAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL START MOVING
INTO THE TREASURE COAST BY THE EVENING HOURS...WITH ACTIVITY
SPREADING OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE COASTAL WATERS AND COAST THROUGH
THE NIGHT AS THE TROUGH AXIS CROSSES THE REGION.

THURS-FRI...PENINSULA WILL BE ON THE FAVORED SIDE OF THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AS IT CROSSES INTO THE EASTERN GULF EARLY ON THURSDAY
AND WEAKENS INTO FRIDAY. POPS 40-50 PERCENT BOTH DAYS AS WE REMAIN
UNDER FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE. EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE
INTERIOR/WESTERN SIDE OF THE PENINSULA...BUT THE PRESENCE OF THE
TROUGH SHOULD ALLOW ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO MOVE ONSHORE THROUGH THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY. EASTERLY FLOW DOES LOOK TOO LIGHT FOR
SIGNIFICANT INLAND PENETRATION OF NOCTURNAL SHOWERS/STORMS...SO WILL
KEEP THE MENTION CONFINED TO THE COAST DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.

SAT-MON...GENERALLY LIGHT WIND FLOW IN PLACE INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SETTLES BACK ACROSS OR JUST NORTH OF THE
REGION AND LOWER LEVEL AXIS STRETCHES ACROSS THE AREA. SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL FEATURE ROUNDING THE BASE
OF THE RIDGE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE ECMWF CONSIDERABLY FASTER THAN
THE GFS IN BRINGING CLOSER TO THE STATE. FOR NOW...THIS DOESN`T
APPEAR TO MAKE TOO MUCH DIFFERENCE IN POP COVERAGE SO WILL KEEP
40-50 PERCENT AS DEEPER MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE AND LIGHT WINDS
ALLOW FOR DEVELOPMENT OF BOTH SEA BREEZES IN THE AFTERNOONS.

&&

.AVIATION...
MNLY VFR CONDS AFT 01/23Z WITH OCNL CLOUD BASES NR FL 030-035FT
ALONG THE COAST AND MARINE AREAS. ISOLD SHRA WL PRODUCE SPOTTY
MVFR CONDS MNLY ALNG CST FM SUA-KCOF.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS TONIGHT WILL BACK TO MORE SE SLIGHTLY AFTER
NIGHTFALL. SEAS MOSTLY 2 FT. SHOWER COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE NO
MORE THAN ISOLATED WITH THUNDER NOT ANTICIPATED.

TUES-WED...(FROM PREV DISC) STEADY EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW AS LOW
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS REMAINS JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION. SURFACE
REFLECTION OF MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE FLORIDA
STRAITS BY LATE WEDNESDAY WILL BRIEFLY TIGHTEN GRADIENT...SPEEDS
10-15KTS...WHERE REST OF THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO 5-10KTS.
SEAS 2-3FT.

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY DURING THE NIGHTS/MORNINGS...WITH
AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF LIGHTNING STORMS IN THE
SOUTHERN WATERS BY LATE WED AS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE MOVES ACROSS.

THURS-FRI...
MAIN BOATING CONCERN WILL BE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS
OVER THE WATERS AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES PENINSULA INTO GULF.
BEST COVERAGE IN THE EVENING-MORNING PERIOD...BUT ACTIVITY WILL BE
PRESENT THROUGH THE DAY.

EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AROUND 10KTS WITH SEAS
2-3FT ON THURS...AND 1-2FT FRI.  ANY SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE
WINDS WILL BRING CHOPPIER SEAS OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS AS AREA GETS
SHADOWED BY THE BAHAMAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  74  90  74  90 /  20  20  10  20
MCO  74  94  74  93 /  10  30  10  20
MLB  76  90  77  90 /  20  20  10  20
VRB  74  90  75  90 /  20  20  20  20
LEE  75  94  75  94 /  10  40  10  30
SFB  75  93  75  93 /  10  20  10  20
ORL  76  94  76  93 /  10  30  10  20
FPR  73  89  74  90 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PENDERGRAST
LONG TERM....BRAGAW






000
FXUS62 KMLB 011909
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
309 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT...LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW GRADIENT PROVIDED BY A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE REGION REMAINS IN PLACE. ISOLD ATLC
BASED SHOWERS WILL AFFECT MAINLY THE COASTAL COUNTIES OVERNIGHT
ALONG WITH INLAND SPORT TO THE OSCEOLA TURNPIKE AND LAKE
OKEECHOBEE WITH HIT OR MISS 20 PERCENT CHC OF EXPERIENCING
ANY MEASURABLE PCPN.

TUE-WED...(FROM PREV DISC) DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL
BE JUST TO THE NORTH MID WEEK KEEPING DEEP ONSHORE FLOW IN PLACE.
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS WILL TRACK WESTWARDS
DURING THE PERIOD...WEAKENING TO AN INVERTED TROUGH AS IT APPROACHES
THE FLORIDA STRAITS LATE ON WEDNESDAY. AN OVERALL DRIER AIRMASS
LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR BOTH DAYS...ACCENTUATED ON TUESDAY AS
WE GET INTO THE SUBSIDENCE REGION AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL
FEATURE.

POPS WL REMAIN ISOLATED AT THE COAST AS DIFFUSE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE PUSHES WESTWARDS LATE IN THE MORNING WITH SCATTERED
ACTIVITY OVER THE INTERIOR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MOST ACTIVITY
LOOKS TO PUSH WEST OF THE REGION BY EARLY EVENING.

DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW/TROUGH STARTS TO ENTER THE
REGION BY LATE WEDNESDAY...TOO LATE FOR A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN
POPS DURING THE DAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL START MOVING
INTO THE TREASURE COAST BY THE EVENING HOURS...WITH ACTIVITY
SPREADING OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE COASTAL WATERS AND COAST THROUGH
THE NIGHT AS THE TROUGH AXIS CROSSES THE REGION.

THURS-FRI...PENINSULA WILL BE ON THE FAVORED SIDE OF THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AS IT CROSSES INTO THE EASTERN GULF EARLY ON THURSDAY
AND WEAKENS INTO FRIDAY. POPS 40-50 PERCENT BOTH DAYS AS WE REMAIN
UNDER FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE. EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE
INTERIOR/WESTERN SIDE OF THE PENINSULA...BUT THE PRESENCE OF THE
TROUGH SHOULD ALLOW ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO MOVE ONSHORE THROUGH THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY. EASTERLY FLOW DOES LOOK TOO LIGHT FOR
SIGNIFICANT INLAND PENETRATION OF NOCTURNAL SHOWERS/STORMS...SO WILL
KEEP THE MENTION CONFINED TO THE COAST DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.

SAT-MON...GENERALLY LIGHT WIND FLOW IN PLACE INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SETTLES BACK ACROSS OR JUST NORTH OF THE
REGION AND LOWER LEVEL AXIS STRETCHES ACROSS THE AREA. SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL FEATURE ROUNDING THE BASE
OF THE RIDGE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE ECMWF CONSIDERABLY FASTER THAN
THE GFS IN BRINGING CLOSER TO THE STATE. FOR NOW...THIS DOESN`T
APPEAR TO MAKE TOO MUCH DIFFERENCE IN POP COVERAGE SO WILL KEEP
40-50 PERCENT AS DEEPER MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE AND LIGHT WINDS
ALLOW FOR DEVELOPMENT OF BOTH SEA BREEZES IN THE AFTERNOONS.

&&

.AVIATION...
MNLY VFR CONDS AFT 01/23Z WITH OCNL CLOUD BASES NR FL 030-035FT
ALONG THE COAST AND MARINE AREAS. ISOLD SHRA WL PRODUCE SPOTTY
MVFR CONDS MNLY ALNG CST FM SUA-KCOF.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS TONIGHT WILL BACK TO MORE SE SLIGHTLY AFTER
NIGHTFALL. SEAS MOSTLY 2 FT. SHOWER COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE NO
MORE THAN ISOLATED WITH THUNDER NOT ANTICIPATED.

TUES-WED...(FROM PREV DISC) STEADY EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW AS LOW
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS REMAINS JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION. SURFACE
REFLECTION OF MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE FLORIDA
STRAITS BY LATE WEDNESDAY WILL BRIEFLY TIGHTEN GRADIENT...SPEEDS
10-15KTS...WHERE REST OF THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO 5-10KTS.
SEAS 2-3FT.

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY DURING THE NIGHTS/MORNINGS...WITH
AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF LIGHTNING STORMS IN THE
SOUTHERN WATERS BY LATE WED AS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE MOVES ACROSS.

THURS-FRI...
MAIN BOATING CONCERN WILL BE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS
OVER THE WATERS AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES PENINSULA INTO GULF.
BEST COVERAGE IN THE EVENING-MORNING PERIOD...BUT ACTIVITY WILL BE
PRESENT THROUGH THE DAY.

EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AROUND 10KTS WITH SEAS
2-3FT ON THURS...AND 1-2FT FRI.  ANY SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE
WINDS WILL BRING CHOPPIER SEAS OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS AS AREA GETS
SHADOWED BY THE BAHAMAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  74  90  74  90 /  20  20  10  20
MCO  74  94  74  93 /  10  30  10  20
MLB  76  90  77  90 /  20  20  10  20
VRB  74  90  75  90 /  20  20  20  20
LEE  75  94  75  94 /  10  40  10  30
SFB  75  93  75  93 /  10  20  10  20
ORL  76  94  76  93 /  10  30  10  20
FPR  73  89  74  90 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PENDERGRAST
LONG TERM....BRAGAW







000
FXUS62 KMLB 011351
AFDMLB

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
950 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
PRESENCE OF BROAD RIDGE AXIS NORTH OF THE AREA WL CONTINUE NEARLY
LAMINAR SE FLOW WITH WIND SPEEDS 10 KT OR LESS BECOMING ENHANCE WITH
AN EARLY ONSET OF A COASTAL BREEZE. THE DIFFUSE BREEZE BOUNDARY WAS
MAKING INLAND PROGRESS WEST OF I-95 WHILE PRODUCING SOME SPOTTY
SHOWERS ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR AN INCREASE IN
SHOWERS MAINLY INLAND AS THE ECSB BOUNDARY WORKS TOWARD INTERIOR
COUNTIES AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN SCT COVERAGE WITH SOME THUNDER
INLAND AS WELL THIS AFTERNOON. ANY STORMS SHOULD NOT BECOME
PARTICULARLY STRONG DUE TO LOWER PWAT AS WELL AS TEMPS @H5 AROUND
-5C ON THE MORNING SOUNDING. OVER THE MARINE AREA STREETS OF LL CU
EVIDENT ON VIS IMAGERY PRIMARILY IN STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW S OF CAPE
CANAVERAL WL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BRING SOME BRIEF SHOWERS AND
SMALL AMOUNTS OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL TO THE COAST AND INLAND THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING. THE CURRENT FORECAST
REMAINS VALID AND NO UPDTS ARE PLANNED.

&&

.AVIATION...EARLY CONVECTIVE INITIATION THIS MORNING ALONG THE EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE WILL SPREAD WEST OF I-95 WITH INCLUSION OF TS AFTER
17Z. COVERAGE AROUND 20 TO 30 PERCENT EXPECTED E OF MCO AND 30 TO 35
PERCENT W OF MCO/ISM.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY-TONIGHT...BACKING WINDS AT THE COAST TO AROUND 110-130. WINDS
AROUND 10 KT AWAY FROM TEH COAST WITH 10 TO 15 KTS NEARSHORE S OF
MLB. MAIN CHANCE OF PCPN SHOULD BE WITH CLOUD LINES EXTENDING FROM
THE BAHAMAS TO THE COAST...MAINLY CAPE CANAVERAL SOUTHWARD.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

JP/MB






000
FXUS62 KMLB 011351
AFDMLB

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
950 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
PRESENCE OF BROAD RIDGE AXIS NORTH OF THE AREA WL CONTINUE NEARLY
LAMINAR SE FLOW WITH WIND SPEEDS 10 KT OR LESS BECOMING ENHANCE WITH
AN EARLY ONSET OF A COASTAL BREEZE. THE DIFFUSE BREEZE BOUNDARY WAS
MAKING INLAND PROGRESS WEST OF I-95 WHILE PRODUCING SOME SPOTTY
SHOWERS ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR AN INCREASE IN
SHOWERS MAINLY INLAND AS THE ECSB BOUNDARY WORKS TOWARD INTERIOR
COUNTIES AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN SCT COVERAGE WITH SOME THUNDER
INLAND AS WELL THIS AFTERNOON. ANY STORMS SHOULD NOT BECOME
PARTICULARLY STRONG DUE TO LOWER PWAT AS WELL AS TEMPS @H5 AROUND
-5C ON THE MORNING SOUNDING. OVER THE MARINE AREA STREETS OF LL CU
EVIDENT ON VIS IMAGERY PRIMARILY IN STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW S OF CAPE
CANAVERAL WL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BRING SOME BRIEF SHOWERS AND
SMALL AMOUNTS OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL TO THE COAST AND INLAND THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING. THE CURRENT FORECAST
REMAINS VALID AND NO UPDTS ARE PLANNED.

&&

.AVIATION...EARLY CONVECTIVE INITIATION THIS MORNING ALONG THE EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE WILL SPREAD WEST OF I-95 WITH INCLUSION OF TS AFTER
17Z. COVERAGE AROUND 20 TO 30 PERCENT EXPECTED E OF MCO AND 30 TO 35
PERCENT W OF MCO/ISM.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY-TONIGHT...BACKING WINDS AT THE COAST TO AROUND 110-130. WINDS
AROUND 10 KT AWAY FROM TEH COAST WITH 10 TO 15 KTS NEARSHORE S OF
MLB. MAIN CHANCE OF PCPN SHOULD BE WITH CLOUD LINES EXTENDING FROM
THE BAHAMAS TO THE COAST...MAINLY CAPE CANAVERAL SOUTHWARD.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

JP/MB







000
FXUS62 KMLB 010743
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
343 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY...CANAVERAL PROFILERS AND MOTION OF ISOLATED LOW TOPPED
ATLANTIC SHOWERS PLACE THE AXIS OF THE LOW LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE NEAR CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE MODELS STEADFASTLY BUILD THIS
RIDGE AXIS NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY...BUT THE LOW LEVEL ONSHORE
WIND FLOW WILL BE WEAK.

DO NOT EXPECT THE WEATHER TO BE MUCH DIFFERENT THAN YESTERDAY. A
CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL EXIST ALONG THE INLAND MOVING SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON. MOS POPS ARE 30 PERCENT AND HAVE FOLLOWED
THEM FOR THE INTERIOR. SOME CLOUD LINES OFF THE BAHAMAS MAY BRING
CHANCE POPS TO THE TREASURE COAST...BUT OTHERWISE WITH SOME DRIER
AIR ALOFT AND WEAK LAPSE RATES...CONVECTIVE INITIATION FROM BREVARD
TO VOLUSIA SHOULD BE WEST OF I-95. SO HAVE ONLY GONE WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS THERE.

TONIGHT...INTERIOR CONVECTION WILL HAVE SHIFTED TOWARDS THE WEST
SIDE OF THE PENINSULA BY SUNSET. AS FOR THE COAST...THE MID/UPPER
LEVELS WILL HAVE A SOLID ONSHORE WIND FLOW...BUT THE LOW LEVEL
ONSHORE COMPONENT WILL REMAIN WEAK. SO DO NOT EXPECT MANY ATLANTIC
SHOWERS TO MOVE ONSHORE. MAV/MET POPS ARE 10 PERCENT OR LESS ALONG
THE COAST...SO WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY SHOWER MENTION. WE WILL HAVE
TO WAIT FOR MORE DISTURBED ONSHORE FLOW LATE IN THE WEEK TO GET
SOME OF THIS NOCTURNAL ACTIVITY...WHICH HAS BEEN UNUSUALLY RARE
SO FAR THIS SUMMER.

TUE-WED...DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE JUST TO THE
NORTH MID WEEK KEEPING DEEP ONSHORE FLOW IN PLACE. MID/UPPER LEVEL
LOW OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS WILL TRACK WESTWARDS DURING THE
PERIOD...WEAKENING TO AN INVERTED TROUGH AS IT APPROACHES THE
FLORIDA STRAITS LATE ON WEDNESDAY. A DRIER AIRMASS LOOKS TO REMAIN
IN PLACE FOR BOTH DAYS...ACCENTUATED ON TUESDAY AS WE GET INTO THE
SUBSIDENCE REGION AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE. OVERALL POPS
REMAIN ISOLATED AT THE COAST AS DIFFUSE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE PUSHES
WESTWARDS LATE IN THE MORNING WITH SCATTERED ACTIVITY OVER THE
INTERIOR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MOST ACTIVITY LOOKS TO PUSH WEST OF
THE REGION BY EVENING.

DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW/TROUGH STARTS TO ENTER THE
REGION BY LATE WEDNESDAY...TOO LATE FOR A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN
POPS DURING THE DAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL START MOVING
INTO THE TREASURE COAST BY THE EVENING HOURS...WITH ACTIVITY
SPREADING OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE COASTAL WATERS AND COAST THROUGH
THE NIGHT AS THE TROUGH AXIS CROSSES THE REGION.

THURS-FRI...PENINSULA WILL BE ON THE FAVORED SIDE OF THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AS IT CROSSES INTO THE EASTERN GULF EARLY ON THURSDAY
AND WEAKENS INTO FRIDAY. POPS 40-50 PERCENT BOTH DAYS AS WE REMAIN
UNDER FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE. EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE
INTERIOR/WESTERN SIDE OF THE PENINSULA...BUT THE PRESENCE OF THE
TROUGH SHOULD ALLOW ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO MOVE ONSHORE THROUGH THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY. EASTERLY FLOW DOES LOOK TOO LIGHT FOR
SIGNIFICANT INLAND PENETRATION OF NOCTURNAL SHOWERS/STORMS...SO WILL
KEEP THE MENTION CONFINED TO THE COAST DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.

SAT-MON...GENERALLY LIGHT WIND FLOW IN PLACE INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SETTLES BACK ACROSS OR JUST NORTH OF THE
REGION AND LOWER LEVEL AXIS STRETCHES ACROSS THE AREA. SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL FEATURE ROUNDING THE BASE
OF THE RIDGE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE ECMWF CONSIDERABLY FASTER THAN
THE GFS IN BRINGING CLOSER TO THE STATE. FOR NOW...THIS DOESN`T
APPEAR TO MAKE TOO MUCH DIFFERENCE IN POP COVERAGE SO WILL KEEP
40-50 PERCENT AS DEEPER MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE AND LIGHT WINDS
ALLOW FOR DEVELOPMENT OF BOTH SEA BREEZES IN THE AFTERNOONS.
&&

.AVIATION...THE LOCAL WRF INDICATES CONVECTIVE INITIATION ALONG
THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WEST OF CANAVERAL/KDAB AFTER 18Z...SO
ONLY CARRIED VICINITY THUNDER FOR THE INTERIOR TAFS FROM ABOUT
20-24Z. THE MODEL HAS CONVECTIVE INITIATION A LITTLE EARLIER ON
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE SEA BREEZE...BUT IT STILL LOOKS WEST
OF KMLB-KSUA.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY-TONIGHT...WINDS WILL START OFF LIGHT SOUTHERLY EXCEPT
SOUTHEAST IN THE SOUTHERN WATERS. THEREAFTER THE SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATION AND RIDGE AXIS NUDGING NORTH WILL CAUSE WINDS TO
BECOME SOUTHEAST ACROSS ALL OF THE WATERS. SPEEDS LOOK TO BE 10
KNOTS OR LESS. DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
LIGHTNING STORMS. THE MAIN CHANCE SHOULD BE WITH CLOUD LINES
EXTENDING FROM THE BAHAMAS TO THE COAST...MAINLY SEBASTIAN INLET
SOUTHWARD.

TUES-WED...STEADY EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW AS LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS
DRAPED JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION. SURFACE REFLECTION OF
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS BY LATE
WEDNESDAY WILL BRIEFLY TIGHTEN GRADIENT...SPEEDS 10-15KTS...WHERE
REST OF THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO 5-10KTS. SEAS 2-3FT.

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY DURING THE NIGHTS/MORNINGS...WITH
AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF LIGHTNING STORMS IN THE
SOUTHERN WATERS BY LATE WED AS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE MOVES ACROSS.

THURS-FRI...
MAIN BOATING CONCERN WILL BE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS
OVER THE WATERS AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES PENINSULA INTO GULF.
BEST COVERAGE IN THE EVENING-MORNING PERIOD...BUT ACTIVITY WILL BE
PRESENT THROUGH THE DAY.

EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AROUND 10KTS WITH SEAS
2-3FT ON THURS...AND 1-2FT FRI.  ANY SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE
WINDS WILL BRING CHOPPIER SEAS OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS AS AREA GETS
SHADOWED BY THE BAHAMAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  90  75  90  74 /  20  10  20  10
MCO  94  74  93  74 /  30  10  20  10
MLB  90  76  90  76 /  20  10  20  10
VRB  90  75  90  76 /  30  10  20  10
LEE  94  75  94  75 /  30  10  30  10
SFB  93  76  93  75 /  30  10  20  10
ORL  93  76  93  75 /  30  10  20  10
FPR  89  75  89  75 /  30  10  20  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LASCODY
LONG TERM....MOSES





000
FXUS62 KMLB 010743
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
343 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY...CANAVERAL PROFILERS AND MOTION OF ISOLATED LOW TOPPED
ATLANTIC SHOWERS PLACE THE AXIS OF THE LOW LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE NEAR CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE MODELS STEADFASTLY BUILD THIS
RIDGE AXIS NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY...BUT THE LOW LEVEL ONSHORE
WIND FLOW WILL BE WEAK.

DO NOT EXPECT THE WEATHER TO BE MUCH DIFFERENT THAN YESTERDAY. A
CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL EXIST ALONG THE INLAND MOVING SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON. MOS POPS ARE 30 PERCENT AND HAVE FOLLOWED
THEM FOR THE INTERIOR. SOME CLOUD LINES OFF THE BAHAMAS MAY BRING
CHANCE POPS TO THE TREASURE COAST...BUT OTHERWISE WITH SOME DRIER
AIR ALOFT AND WEAK LAPSE RATES...CONVECTIVE INITIATION FROM BREVARD
TO VOLUSIA SHOULD BE WEST OF I-95. SO HAVE ONLY GONE WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS THERE.

TONIGHT...INTERIOR CONVECTION WILL HAVE SHIFTED TOWARDS THE WEST
SIDE OF THE PENINSULA BY SUNSET. AS FOR THE COAST...THE MID/UPPER
LEVELS WILL HAVE A SOLID ONSHORE WIND FLOW...BUT THE LOW LEVEL
ONSHORE COMPONENT WILL REMAIN WEAK. SO DO NOT EXPECT MANY ATLANTIC
SHOWERS TO MOVE ONSHORE. MAV/MET POPS ARE 10 PERCENT OR LESS ALONG
THE COAST...SO WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY SHOWER MENTION. WE WILL HAVE
TO WAIT FOR MORE DISTURBED ONSHORE FLOW LATE IN THE WEEK TO GET
SOME OF THIS NOCTURNAL ACTIVITY...WHICH HAS BEEN UNUSUALLY RARE
SO FAR THIS SUMMER.

TUE-WED...DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE JUST TO THE
NORTH MID WEEK KEEPING DEEP ONSHORE FLOW IN PLACE. MID/UPPER LEVEL
LOW OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS WILL TRACK WESTWARDS DURING THE
PERIOD...WEAKENING TO AN INVERTED TROUGH AS IT APPROACHES THE
FLORIDA STRAITS LATE ON WEDNESDAY. A DRIER AIRMASS LOOKS TO REMAIN
IN PLACE FOR BOTH DAYS...ACCENTUATED ON TUESDAY AS WE GET INTO THE
SUBSIDENCE REGION AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE. OVERALL POPS
REMAIN ISOLATED AT THE COAST AS DIFFUSE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE PUSHES
WESTWARDS LATE IN THE MORNING WITH SCATTERED ACTIVITY OVER THE
INTERIOR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MOST ACTIVITY LOOKS TO PUSH WEST OF
THE REGION BY EVENING.

DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW/TROUGH STARTS TO ENTER THE
REGION BY LATE WEDNESDAY...TOO LATE FOR A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN
POPS DURING THE DAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL START MOVING
INTO THE TREASURE COAST BY THE EVENING HOURS...WITH ACTIVITY
SPREADING OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE COASTAL WATERS AND COAST THROUGH
THE NIGHT AS THE TROUGH AXIS CROSSES THE REGION.

THURS-FRI...PENINSULA WILL BE ON THE FAVORED SIDE OF THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AS IT CROSSES INTO THE EASTERN GULF EARLY ON THURSDAY
AND WEAKENS INTO FRIDAY. POPS 40-50 PERCENT BOTH DAYS AS WE REMAIN
UNDER FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE. EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE
INTERIOR/WESTERN SIDE OF THE PENINSULA...BUT THE PRESENCE OF THE
TROUGH SHOULD ALLOW ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO MOVE ONSHORE THROUGH THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY. EASTERLY FLOW DOES LOOK TOO LIGHT FOR
SIGNIFICANT INLAND PENETRATION OF NOCTURNAL SHOWERS/STORMS...SO WILL
KEEP THE MENTION CONFINED TO THE COAST DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.

SAT-MON...GENERALLY LIGHT WIND FLOW IN PLACE INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SETTLES BACK ACROSS OR JUST NORTH OF THE
REGION AND LOWER LEVEL AXIS STRETCHES ACROSS THE AREA. SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL FEATURE ROUNDING THE BASE
OF THE RIDGE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE ECMWF CONSIDERABLY FASTER THAN
THE GFS IN BRINGING CLOSER TO THE STATE. FOR NOW...THIS DOESN`T
APPEAR TO MAKE TOO MUCH DIFFERENCE IN POP COVERAGE SO WILL KEEP
40-50 PERCENT AS DEEPER MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE AND LIGHT WINDS
ALLOW FOR DEVELOPMENT OF BOTH SEA BREEZES IN THE AFTERNOONS.
&&

.AVIATION...THE LOCAL WRF INDICATES CONVECTIVE INITIATION ALONG
THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WEST OF CANAVERAL/KDAB AFTER 18Z...SO
ONLY CARRIED VICINITY THUNDER FOR THE INTERIOR TAFS FROM ABOUT
20-24Z. THE MODEL HAS CONVECTIVE INITIATION A LITTLE EARLIER ON
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE SEA BREEZE...BUT IT STILL LOOKS WEST
OF KMLB-KSUA.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY-TONIGHT...WINDS WILL START OFF LIGHT SOUTHERLY EXCEPT
SOUTHEAST IN THE SOUTHERN WATERS. THEREAFTER THE SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATION AND RIDGE AXIS NUDGING NORTH WILL CAUSE WINDS TO
BECOME SOUTHEAST ACROSS ALL OF THE WATERS. SPEEDS LOOK TO BE 10
KNOTS OR LESS. DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
LIGHTNING STORMS. THE MAIN CHANCE SHOULD BE WITH CLOUD LINES
EXTENDING FROM THE BAHAMAS TO THE COAST...MAINLY SEBASTIAN INLET
SOUTHWARD.

TUES-WED...STEADY EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW AS LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS
DRAPED JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION. SURFACE REFLECTION OF
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS BY LATE
WEDNESDAY WILL BRIEFLY TIGHTEN GRADIENT...SPEEDS 10-15KTS...WHERE
REST OF THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO 5-10KTS. SEAS 2-3FT.

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY DURING THE NIGHTS/MORNINGS...WITH
AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF LIGHTNING STORMS IN THE
SOUTHERN WATERS BY LATE WED AS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE MOVES ACROSS.

THURS-FRI...
MAIN BOATING CONCERN WILL BE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS
OVER THE WATERS AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES PENINSULA INTO GULF.
BEST COVERAGE IN THE EVENING-MORNING PERIOD...BUT ACTIVITY WILL BE
PRESENT THROUGH THE DAY.

EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AROUND 10KTS WITH SEAS
2-3FT ON THURS...AND 1-2FT FRI.  ANY SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE
WINDS WILL BRING CHOPPIER SEAS OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS AS AREA GETS
SHADOWED BY THE BAHAMAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  90  75  90  74 /  20  10  20  10
MCO  94  74  93  74 /  30  10  20  10
MLB  90  76  90  76 /  20  10  20  10
VRB  90  75  90  76 /  30  10  20  10
LEE  94  75  94  75 /  30  10  30  10
SFB  93  76  93  75 /  30  10  20  10
ORL  93  76  93  75 /  30  10  20  10
FPR  89  75  89  75 /  30  10  20  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LASCODY
LONG TERM....MOSES






000
FXUS62 KMLB 010104
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
903 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT-OVERNIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS NORTH
OF THE AREA. WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ALONG
THE COAST WITH BETTER CHANCES SOUTH FROM THE CAPE WHERE MOISTURE IS
DEEPEST AND FLOW A BIT STRONGER. OVERNIGHT LOWS MILD AND IN THE 70S
AND WINDS LIGHT. WILL UPDATE ZONES SHORTLY TO CLEAN UP FIRST PERIOD
WORDING.

LABOR DAY...PREVIOUS....A PASSING MID LEVEL DRY SWATH EVIDENT ON WV
IMAGERY SHOULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE MODIFIED...AS WELL AS AN
INCREASE IN OVERALL MOISTURE IN DEEP ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY. SCT PRECIP COVERAGE CAN BE EXPECTED WITH AN INLAND
PROGRESSION OF MORNING SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER DURING THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPS IN THE 91 TO 94 RANGE FOR HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLD COASTAL SHRA POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. MAINLY LIGHT
WINDS OVERNIGHT WITH ESE WINDS ON MON. ISOLD SHRA/TSRA CHANCES NEAR
THE EAST COAST ON MON WITH SCT CHANCES INTO THE INTERIOR LATER IN
THE AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...OVERNIGHT-LABOR DAY...LOW-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS
REMAINS SITUATED JUST NORTH OF ECFL. MAINLY A S/SSE/ESE FLOW DURING
THIS PERIOD WITH WIND SPEEDS 6-12 KTS. SEAS MAINLY AOB 3 FT. ISOLD
SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

SEDLOCK/VOLKMER







000
FXUS62 KMLB 010104
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
903 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT-OVERNIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS NORTH
OF THE AREA. WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ALONG
THE COAST WITH BETTER CHANCES SOUTH FROM THE CAPE WHERE MOISTURE IS
DEEPEST AND FLOW A BIT STRONGER. OVERNIGHT LOWS MILD AND IN THE 70S
AND WINDS LIGHT. WILL UPDATE ZONES SHORTLY TO CLEAN UP FIRST PERIOD
WORDING.

LABOR DAY...PREVIOUS....A PASSING MID LEVEL DRY SWATH EVIDENT ON WV
IMAGERY SHOULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE MODIFIED...AS WELL AS AN
INCREASE IN OVERALL MOISTURE IN DEEP ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY. SCT PRECIP COVERAGE CAN BE EXPECTED WITH AN INLAND
PROGRESSION OF MORNING SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER DURING THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPS IN THE 91 TO 94 RANGE FOR HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLD COASTAL SHRA POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. MAINLY LIGHT
WINDS OVERNIGHT WITH ESE WINDS ON MON. ISOLD SHRA/TSRA CHANCES NEAR
THE EAST COAST ON MON WITH SCT CHANCES INTO THE INTERIOR LATER IN
THE AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...OVERNIGHT-LABOR DAY...LOW-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS
REMAINS SITUATED JUST NORTH OF ECFL. MAINLY A S/SSE/ESE FLOW DURING
THIS PERIOD WITH WIND SPEEDS 6-12 KTS. SEAS MAINLY AOB 3 FT. ISOLD
SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

SEDLOCK/VOLKMER








000
FXUS62 KMLB 311934
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
334 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT AND LABOR DAY...LITTLE CHANGE TO SYNOPTIC OVERALL PATTERN
EARLY THIS WEEK WITH THE AXIS OF A BROAD ATLC SFC RIDGE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS N FLORIDA. ATLC BASED SHOWERS WILL
AFFECT THE COASTAL COUNTIES OVERNIGHT WITH HIT OR MISS 20 PERCENT
CHC OF SEEING MEASURABLE PCPN. AREAS SOUTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL
SHOULD SEE THE BEST CHC OF RAIN DUE TO A LITTLE STRONGER ONSHORE
COMPONENT.

A PASSING MID LEVEL DRY SWATH EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY SHOULD BECOME
A LITTLE MORE MODIFIED MON...AS WELL AS AN INCREASE IN OVERALL MOISTURE
IN DEEP ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE HOLIDAY. SCT PRECIP COVERAGE CAN
BE EXPECTED WITH AN INLAND PROGRESSION OF MORNING SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDER DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS IN THE 91 TO 94 RANGE
FOR HIGHS.

TUE-FRI...(PREV DISC) DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL
REMAIN TO OUR NORTH SO DEEP ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE. DURING MID
TO LATE WEEK...A MID/UPPER LOW...WEAKENING INTO AN INVERTED
TROUGH...IS FORECAST TO PUSH FROM THE ATLANTIC ACROSS THE AREA.
THE GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY SHOWING THIS...SO EXPECT THAT BY THU
THE POPS WILL INCREASE. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...MOISTURE SHOULD BE
LIMITED AND HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO THE MOS 20-30 POPS. FOR THE THU-
FRI PERIOD WHEN THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS...HAVE GONE
WITH 40-50 POPS...WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE MOS VALUES.

FIRST QUICK LOOK AT NEXT WEEKEND PAINTS A LIGHT WIND REGIME AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS SINKS CLOSE TO THE AREA.
MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAIN HIGH WITH POPS 40 PERCENT AT THE COAST TO
NEAR 50 PERCENT INLAND.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDS AFT 31/23Z WITH OCNL CLOUD BASES NR FL 030-035FT ALONG
THE COAST AND MARINE AREAS. ISOLD SHRA WL PRODUCE SPORTTY MVFR
CONDS MNLY ALNG CST FM SUA-KCOF.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT-THU...AXIS OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN NORTH OF THE WATERS. THIS WILL PRODUCE A STEADY EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WITH 2-3FT SEAS. MODEL SPEEDS ARE CLOSE TO 10
KNOTS WITH THE MAX SPEED DURING THE PERIOD AT 13 KNOTS. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK ESPECIALLY DURING THE
NIGHT/MORNING. MID-UPPER LEVEL ATLANTIC TROUGH APPROACHING SHOULD
BEGIN TO INCREASE THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF LIGHTNING STORMS
IN THE SOUTHERN WATERS TUE NIGHT INTO WED AND ACROSS THE REST OF
THE WATERS THU.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  75  91  75  90 /  20  20  10  20
MCO  75  94  74  93 /  20  30  10  30
MLB  77  91  76  90 /  20  20  10  30
VRB  75  91  74  90 /  20  30  10  30
LEE  75  95  75  94 /  20  30  10  30
SFB  76  94  75  93 /  20  20  10  30
ORL  76  94  76  93 /  20  30  10  30
FPR  74  90  74  89 /  20  30  10  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PENDERGRAST
LONG TERM....BRAGAW









000
FXUS62 KMLB 311934
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
334 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT AND LABOR DAY...LITTLE CHANGE TO SYNOPTIC OVERALL PATTERN
EARLY THIS WEEK WITH THE AXIS OF A BROAD ATLC SFC RIDGE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS N FLORIDA. ATLC BASED SHOWERS WILL
AFFECT THE COASTAL COUNTIES OVERNIGHT WITH HIT OR MISS 20 PERCENT
CHC OF SEEING MEASURABLE PCPN. AREAS SOUTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL
SHOULD SEE THE BEST CHC OF RAIN DUE TO A LITTLE STRONGER ONSHORE
COMPONENT.

A PASSING MID LEVEL DRY SWATH EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY SHOULD BECOME
A LITTLE MORE MODIFIED MON...AS WELL AS AN INCREASE IN OVERALL MOISTURE
IN DEEP ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE HOLIDAY. SCT PRECIP COVERAGE CAN
BE EXPECTED WITH AN INLAND PROGRESSION OF MORNING SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDER DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS IN THE 91 TO 94 RANGE
FOR HIGHS.

TUE-FRI...(PREV DISC) DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL
REMAIN TO OUR NORTH SO DEEP ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE. DURING MID
TO LATE WEEK...A MID/UPPER LOW...WEAKENING INTO AN INVERTED
TROUGH...IS FORECAST TO PUSH FROM THE ATLANTIC ACROSS THE AREA.
THE GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY SHOWING THIS...SO EXPECT THAT BY THU
THE POPS WILL INCREASE. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...MOISTURE SHOULD BE
LIMITED AND HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO THE MOS 20-30 POPS. FOR THE THU-
FRI PERIOD WHEN THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS...HAVE GONE
WITH 40-50 POPS...WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE MOS VALUES.

FIRST QUICK LOOK AT NEXT WEEKEND PAINTS A LIGHT WIND REGIME AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS SINKS CLOSE TO THE AREA.
MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAIN HIGH WITH POPS 40 PERCENT AT THE COAST TO
NEAR 50 PERCENT INLAND.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDS AFT 31/23Z WITH OCNL CLOUD BASES NR FL 030-035FT ALONG
THE COAST AND MARINE AREAS. ISOLD SHRA WL PRODUCE SPORTTY MVFR
CONDS MNLY ALNG CST FM SUA-KCOF.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT-THU...AXIS OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN NORTH OF THE WATERS. THIS WILL PRODUCE A STEADY EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WITH 2-3FT SEAS. MODEL SPEEDS ARE CLOSE TO 10
KNOTS WITH THE MAX SPEED DURING THE PERIOD AT 13 KNOTS. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK ESPECIALLY DURING THE
NIGHT/MORNING. MID-UPPER LEVEL ATLANTIC TROUGH APPROACHING SHOULD
BEGIN TO INCREASE THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF LIGHTNING STORMS
IN THE SOUTHERN WATERS TUE NIGHT INTO WED AND ACROSS THE REST OF
THE WATERS THU.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  75  91  75  90 /  20  20  10  20
MCO  75  94  74  93 /  20  30  10  30
MLB  77  91  76  90 /  20  20  10  30
VRB  75  91  74  90 /  20  30  10  30
LEE  75  95  75  94 /  20  30  10  30
SFB  76  94  75  93 /  20  20  10  30
ORL  76  94  76  93 /  20  30  10  30
FPR  74  90  74  89 /  20  30  10  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PENDERGRAST
LONG TERM....BRAGAW








000
FXUS62 KMLB 311439
AFDMLB

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1039 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A REVIEW OF THE LTST XMR/TBW SOUNDINGS ALONG WITH WV IMAGERY IS NOT
LEADING TO A GOOD SETUP FOR WET SEASON PCPN TODAY. NOTABLE DRYING
EXISTS AT MOST ALL LEVELS ABV THE LOWEST COUPLE THOUSAND FT. CURRENT
PWAT IS ONLY AT A SEASONAL 25 PERCENTILE ACCORDING TO NOAA/NCDC
DATABASE STUDY 1948-1997. HAVE REVISED POP COVERAGE TO NO GREATER
THAN ISOLD AREAWIDE WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHCS WELL INLAND MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF MARINE ACTIVITY AS
WELL DURING TODAY GIVEN LIGHTER WINDS AND DEPTH OF DRYING.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR AREAWIDE WITH A SCT BASES NR FL 035-045 FT THROUGH NIGHTFALL.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...(PREV DISC) LIGHT-GENTLE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AND SEAS
AT/BELOW 3 FEET. THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF SOME SWELL AT 9-10 SECONDS
ENTERING THE WATERS BRINGING SOME 3 FT SEAS OFFSHORE...BUT AROUND 2
FT SHOULD CONTINUE NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

JP/MB






000
FXUS62 KMLB 311439
AFDMLB

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1039 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A REVIEW OF THE LTST XMR/TBW SOUNDINGS ALONG WITH WV IMAGERY IS NOT
LEADING TO A GOOD SETUP FOR WET SEASON PCPN TODAY. NOTABLE DRYING
EXISTS AT MOST ALL LEVELS ABV THE LOWEST COUPLE THOUSAND FT. CURRENT
PWAT IS ONLY AT A SEASONAL 25 PERCENTILE ACCORDING TO NOAA/NCDC
DATABASE STUDY 1948-1997. HAVE REVISED POP COVERAGE TO NO GREATER
THAN ISOLD AREAWIDE WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHCS WELL INLAND MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF MARINE ACTIVITY AS
WELL DURING TODAY GIVEN LIGHTER WINDS AND DEPTH OF DRYING.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR AREAWIDE WITH A SCT BASES NR FL 035-045 FT THROUGH NIGHTFALL.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...(PREV DISC) LIGHT-GENTLE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AND SEAS
AT/BELOW 3 FEET. THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF SOME SWELL AT 9-10 SECONDS
ENTERING THE WATERS BRINGING SOME 3 FT SEAS OFFSHORE...BUT AROUND 2
FT SHOULD CONTINUE NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

JP/MB







000
FXUS62 KMLB 310733
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
333 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY...SURFACE RIDGE OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL MIGRATE NORTH AND
COMBINE WITH MID/UPPER LEVELS TO DEVELOP A DEEP ONSHORE WIND FLOW.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FORECAST TO BE NEAR 2 INCHES. LIGHT
SOUTHEAST TO EAST WINDS THROUGH THE LAYER BECOMING 10 TO 15 MPH
DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH ASSISTANCE FROM THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE. SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BEGIN NEAR THE COAST SOUTH OF
SEBASTIAN INLET AROUND NOON AND WORK THEIR INLAND TOWARD LAKE
OKEECHOBEE DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOUR OR TWO. SHOWERS AND
STORMS DEVELOP AROUND THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR EARLY AFTERNOON
THEN WORK THEIR WAY WEST INCREASING IN COVERAGE BY THE TIME THEY
REACH WEST OF A DELAND ORLANDO OKEECHOBEE LINE LATE AFTERNOON.
LIGHT STEERING FLOW ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL RESULT IN SLOW MOVING
STORMS AND STORMS BEING TRIGGERED BY BOUNDARY INTERACTION. DRIER
AIR ALOFT SEEN ON WATER VAPOR TO OUR NORTHEAST WILL WORK OVER THE
AREA AND SHOULD KEEP THE COVERAGE BELOW NORMAL...20-30 PERCENT.

HIGHS AROUND 90 AT THE COAST AND LOW TO MID 90S FOR THE INTERIOR AND
WEST OF INTERSTATE 4.

TONIGHT...ISOLATED STORMS WEST OF ORLANDO DISSIPATE AND SKIES BECOME
PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS MID 70S TO UPPER
70S AT THE BEACHES COCOA BEACH SOUTH.

MON...THE 00Z GFS INDICATED DRIER AIR PERSISTING ESPECIALLY NORTH.
GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE MOS POPS WHICH HAD 20-30 PERCENT. THE DEEP
EAST FLOW REGIME WOULD FAVOR MOSTLY SMALL SHOWER CHANCES ALONG THE
COAST THROUGH MIDDAY THEN WITH DAYTIME HEATING THERE WILL BE A LOW
CHANCE FOR LIGHTNING STORMS ALONG THE INLAND MOVING SEA BREEZE.

TUE-FRI...DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE TO
OUR NORTH SO DEEP ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE. DURING MID TO LATE
WEEK...A MID/UPPER LOW...WEAKENING INTO AN INVERTED TROUGH...IS
FORECAST TO PUSH FROM THE ATLANTIC ACROSS THE AREA. THE GFS HAS
BEEN CONSISTENTLY SHOWING THIS...SO EXPECT THAT BY THU THE POPS
WILL INCREASE. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...MOISTURE SHOULD BE LIMITED
AND HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO THE MOS 20-30 POPS. FOR THE THU-FRI
PERIOD WHEN THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS...HAVE GONE WITH
40-50 POPS...WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE MOS VALUES.

FIRST QUICK LOOK AT NEXT WEEKEND PAINTS A LIGHT WIND REGIME AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS SINKS CLOSE TO THE AREA.
MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAIN HIGH WITH POPS 40 PERCENT AT THE COAST TO
NEAR 50 PERCENT INLAND.

&&

.AVIATION...
THROUGH SUNRISE VFR WITH ISOLATED COASTAL -SHRA CAPE CANAVERAL.
TEMPO MVFR AT THE COAST 15Z-18Z. TEMPO MVFR 18Z-02Z AWAY FROM THE
COAST/WEST OF INTERSTATE 95 TO KLEE.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...LIGHT-GENTLE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AND SEAS AT/BELOW 3
FEET. THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF SOME SWELL AT 9-10 SECONDS ENTERING
THE WATERS BRINGING SOME 3 FT SEAS OFFSHORE...BUT AROUND 2 FT
SHOULD CONTINUE NEAR THE COAST.

MON-THU...AXIS OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE WATERS. THIS WILL PRODUCE A STEADY EAST
TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW. MODEL SPEEDS ARE CLOSE TO 10 KNOTS WITH
THE MAX SPEED DURING THE PERIOD AT 13 KNOTS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS EXPECTED MON-TUE ESPECIALLY DURING THE NIGHT/MORNING.
MID-UPPER LEVEL ATLANTIC TROUGH APPROACHING SHOULD BEGIN TO
INCREASE THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF LIGHTNING STORMS IN THE
SOUTHERN WATERS TUE NIGHT INTO WED AND ACROSS THE REST OF THE
WATERS THU.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  91  75  91  75 /  30  20  20  10
MCO  94  75  94  74 /  30  20  30  10
MLB  91  77  90  77 /  30  20  20  10
VRB  91  75  90  75 /  30  20  30  10
LEE  95  75  94  75 /  30  20  30  10
SFB  94  75  94  75 /  30  20  20  10
ORL  94  75  94  76 /  30  20  30  10
FPR  89  74  89  75 /  30  20  30  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WIMMER
LONG TERM....LASCODY





000
FXUS62 KMLB 310733
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
333 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY...SURFACE RIDGE OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL MIGRATE NORTH AND
COMBINE WITH MID/UPPER LEVELS TO DEVELOP A DEEP ONSHORE WIND FLOW.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FORECAST TO BE NEAR 2 INCHES. LIGHT
SOUTHEAST TO EAST WINDS THROUGH THE LAYER BECOMING 10 TO 15 MPH
DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH ASSISTANCE FROM THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE. SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BEGIN NEAR THE COAST SOUTH OF
SEBASTIAN INLET AROUND NOON AND WORK THEIR INLAND TOWARD LAKE
OKEECHOBEE DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOUR OR TWO. SHOWERS AND
STORMS DEVELOP AROUND THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR EARLY AFTERNOON
THEN WORK THEIR WAY WEST INCREASING IN COVERAGE BY THE TIME THEY
REACH WEST OF A DELAND ORLANDO OKEECHOBEE LINE LATE AFTERNOON.
LIGHT STEERING FLOW ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL RESULT IN SLOW MOVING
STORMS AND STORMS BEING TRIGGERED BY BOUNDARY INTERACTION. DRIER
AIR ALOFT SEEN ON WATER VAPOR TO OUR NORTHEAST WILL WORK OVER THE
AREA AND SHOULD KEEP THE COVERAGE BELOW NORMAL...20-30 PERCENT.

HIGHS AROUND 90 AT THE COAST AND LOW TO MID 90S FOR THE INTERIOR AND
WEST OF INTERSTATE 4.

TONIGHT...ISOLATED STORMS WEST OF ORLANDO DISSIPATE AND SKIES BECOME
PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS MID 70S TO UPPER
70S AT THE BEACHES COCOA BEACH SOUTH.

MON...THE 00Z GFS INDICATED DRIER AIR PERSISTING ESPECIALLY NORTH.
GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE MOS POPS WHICH HAD 20-30 PERCENT. THE DEEP
EAST FLOW REGIME WOULD FAVOR MOSTLY SMALL SHOWER CHANCES ALONG THE
COAST THROUGH MIDDAY THEN WITH DAYTIME HEATING THERE WILL BE A LOW
CHANCE FOR LIGHTNING STORMS ALONG THE INLAND MOVING SEA BREEZE.

TUE-FRI...DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE TO
OUR NORTH SO DEEP ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE. DURING MID TO LATE
WEEK...A MID/UPPER LOW...WEAKENING INTO AN INVERTED TROUGH...IS
FORECAST TO PUSH FROM THE ATLANTIC ACROSS THE AREA. THE GFS HAS
BEEN CONSISTENTLY SHOWING THIS...SO EXPECT THAT BY THU THE POPS
WILL INCREASE. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...MOISTURE SHOULD BE LIMITED
AND HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO THE MOS 20-30 POPS. FOR THE THU-FRI
PERIOD WHEN THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS...HAVE GONE WITH
40-50 POPS...WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE MOS VALUES.

FIRST QUICK LOOK AT NEXT WEEKEND PAINTS A LIGHT WIND REGIME AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS SINKS CLOSE TO THE AREA.
MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAIN HIGH WITH POPS 40 PERCENT AT THE COAST TO
NEAR 50 PERCENT INLAND.

&&

.AVIATION...
THROUGH SUNRISE VFR WITH ISOLATED COASTAL -SHRA CAPE CANAVERAL.
TEMPO MVFR AT THE COAST 15Z-18Z. TEMPO MVFR 18Z-02Z AWAY FROM THE
COAST/WEST OF INTERSTATE 95 TO KLEE.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...LIGHT-GENTLE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AND SEAS AT/BELOW 3
FEET. THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF SOME SWELL AT 9-10 SECONDS ENTERING
THE WATERS BRINGING SOME 3 FT SEAS OFFSHORE...BUT AROUND 2 FT
SHOULD CONTINUE NEAR THE COAST.

MON-THU...AXIS OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE WATERS. THIS WILL PRODUCE A STEADY EAST
TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW. MODEL SPEEDS ARE CLOSE TO 10 KNOTS WITH
THE MAX SPEED DURING THE PERIOD AT 13 KNOTS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS EXPECTED MON-TUE ESPECIALLY DURING THE NIGHT/MORNING.
MID-UPPER LEVEL ATLANTIC TROUGH APPROACHING SHOULD BEGIN TO
INCREASE THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF LIGHTNING STORMS IN THE
SOUTHERN WATERS TUE NIGHT INTO WED AND ACROSS THE REST OF THE
WATERS THU.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  91  75  91  75 /  30  20  20  10
MCO  94  75  94  74 /  30  20  30  10
MLB  91  77  90  77 /  30  20  20  10
VRB  91  75  90  75 /  30  20  30  10
LEE  95  75  94  75 /  30  20  30  10
SFB  94  75  94  75 /  30  20  20  10
ORL  94  75  94  76 /  30  20  30  10
FPR  89  74  89  75 /  30  20  30  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WIMMER
LONG TERM....LASCODY






000
FXUS62 KMLB 310112
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
911 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT-OVERNIGHT...EVENING CONVECTION FAVORED THE INTERIOR AND WEST
CENTRAL FLORIDA. THERE REMAINS A CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWER CHANCES
TONIGHT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS IN THE WEAK SOUTHEAST FLOW...MAINLY
SOUTH OF THE CAPE. ANOTHER MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 70S. WILL
UPDATE ZONES SHORTLY TO CLEAN UP FIRST PERIOD WORDING.

SUNDAY...PREVIOUS...SIMILAR SETUP TO TODAY WITH AMPLE MOISTURE AND
SCT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. LAYER WINDS
REMAIN LIGHT SO IT WILL BE BOUNDARY DRIVEN ACTIVITY FOCUSING INLAND
DURING THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLD COASTAL SHRA S OF COF OVERNIGHT. MAINLY LIGHT SE
FLOW OVERNIGHT WITH ESE WINDS ON SUN. ISOLD SHRA/TSRA CHANCES NEAR
THE EAST COAST ON SUN WITH SCT CHANCES INTO THE INTERIOR LATER SUN
AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...OVERNIGHT/SUN...SEAS AOB 3 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAINLY
SE/SSE WINDS OVERNIGHT AND BECOMING ESE ON SUN. ISOLD CHANCES FOR
SHRA/TSRA DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

SEDLOCK/VOLKMER







000
FXUS62 KMLB 301946
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
346 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...LACK OF DEVELOPED CU OVER MUCH OF AREA AT
DIURNAL CONVECTIVE MAX SPELLS LOWER THAN ANTICIPATED COVERAGE FOR
PCPN THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. HAVE LOWERED COVERAGE TO
ISOLD PHRASING THE REST OF THE EVENING FOR ALL EXCEPT THE I-4
CORRIDOR WWD. LIGHT ONSHORE STEERING WL END PCPN CHCS RATHER EARLY
THIS EVENING. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF REDEVELOPMENT OF ISOLD SHOWERS
TONIGHT OVER THE ATLC WATERS IN WEAKLY ONSHORE FLOW MAINLY SOUTH OF
CAPE CANAVERAL.

SUNDAY...SIMILAR SETUP TO TODAY WITH AMPLE MOISTURE AND SCT
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. LAYER WINDS
REMAIN LIGHT SO IT WILL BE BOUNDARY DRIVEN ACTIVITY FOCUSING
INLAND DURING THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON.

MON-LATE WEEK...(PREV DISC) LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SURFACE RIDGE
POSITION JUST TO OUR NORTH IS INDICATED. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW
IS PROGGED TO LUMBER SLOWLY WEST THROUGH THE BAHAMAS AND REACH
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE LATE IN THE WEEK AS IT GRADUALLY
WEAKENS. PRECIPITABLE WATER IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A BIT SUBDUED
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...SO POPS AROUND 30 PERCENT INDICATED BY MOS
LOOK GOOD MON-TUE. AS THE MID/UPPER LOW GETS CLOSER ON WED...THERE
SHOULD BE MOISTENING AND COOLING ALOFT MAINLY IN THE SOUTH SO HAVE
GONE WITH 40 POPS...WHICH IS A LITTLE ABOVE MOS. THE MOISTENING
AND DESTABILIZATION IS PROGGED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA THU-FRI SO
POPS WILL RISE TO 40 PERCENT OR GREATER AREAWIDE.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISOLD SHOWERS AND THUNDER MNLY INLAND THROUGH 02Z THEN VFR CONDS
AFT 02Z. WITH SOME ISOLD COASTAL SHRA S OF COF.

&&

.MARINE...

TONIGHT/SUN....SEAS MAINLY 2 FT. THERE IS INDICATIONS OF SOME SWELL
ENTERING THE WATERS BRINGING SOME 3 FT SEAS OFFSHORE DURING SUN.
AROUND 2 FT SHOULD CONTINUE NEAR THE COAST.

MON-WED...SURFACE RIDGE POSITION IS FORECAST TO EXTEND JUST NORTH
OF THE WATERS. THIS WILL PROVIDE AN EAST/SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW.
SPEEDS LOOK MAINLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS. THIS FLOW REGIME USUALLY
FAVORS NIGHT/MORNING SHOWER CHANCES WITH ISOLATED STORMS. THE
MARINE STORMS MAY START TO PACK MORE PUNCH TUE/WED AS A POCKET OF
COOLER AIR ALOFT MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  76  91  75  91 /  20  30  20  30
MCO  75  95  75  94 /  20  30  20  30
MLB  76  90  77  91 /  20  30  20  30
VRB  75  91  75  90 /  20  30  20  30
LEE  76  95  76  94 /  30  40  20  30
SFB  77  95  76  94 /  20  30  20  30
ORL  77  95  77  93 /  20  30  20  30
FPR  75  90  75  90 /  20  30  20  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PENDERGRAST
LONG TERM....ULRICH






000
FXUS62 KMLB 301946
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
346 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...LACK OF DEVELOPED CU OVER MUCH OF AREA AT
DIURNAL CONVECTIVE MAX SPELLS LOWER THAN ANTICIPATED COVERAGE FOR
PCPN THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. HAVE LOWERED COVERAGE TO
ISOLD PHRASING THE REST OF THE EVENING FOR ALL EXCEPT THE I-4
CORRIDOR WWD. LIGHT ONSHORE STEERING WL END PCPN CHCS RATHER EARLY
THIS EVENING. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF REDEVELOPMENT OF ISOLD SHOWERS
TONIGHT OVER THE ATLC WATERS IN WEAKLY ONSHORE FLOW MAINLY SOUTH OF
CAPE CANAVERAL.

SUNDAY...SIMILAR SETUP TO TODAY WITH AMPLE MOISTURE AND SCT
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. LAYER WINDS
REMAIN LIGHT SO IT WILL BE BOUNDARY DRIVEN ACTIVITY FOCUSING
INLAND DURING THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON.

MON-LATE WEEK...(PREV DISC) LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SURFACE RIDGE
POSITION JUST TO OUR NORTH IS INDICATED. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW
IS PROGGED TO LUMBER SLOWLY WEST THROUGH THE BAHAMAS AND REACH
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE LATE IN THE WEEK AS IT GRADUALLY
WEAKENS. PRECIPITABLE WATER IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A BIT SUBDUED
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...SO POPS AROUND 30 PERCENT INDICATED BY MOS
LOOK GOOD MON-TUE. AS THE MID/UPPER LOW GETS CLOSER ON WED...THERE
SHOULD BE MOISTENING AND COOLING ALOFT MAINLY IN THE SOUTH SO HAVE
GONE WITH 40 POPS...WHICH IS A LITTLE ABOVE MOS. THE MOISTENING
AND DESTABILIZATION IS PROGGED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA THU-FRI SO
POPS WILL RISE TO 40 PERCENT OR GREATER AREAWIDE.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISOLD SHOWERS AND THUNDER MNLY INLAND THROUGH 02Z THEN VFR CONDS
AFT 02Z. WITH SOME ISOLD COASTAL SHRA S OF COF.

&&

.MARINE...

TONIGHT/SUN....SEAS MAINLY 2 FT. THERE IS INDICATIONS OF SOME SWELL
ENTERING THE WATERS BRINGING SOME 3 FT SEAS OFFSHORE DURING SUN.
AROUND 2 FT SHOULD CONTINUE NEAR THE COAST.

MON-WED...SURFACE RIDGE POSITION IS FORECAST TO EXTEND JUST NORTH
OF THE WATERS. THIS WILL PROVIDE AN EAST/SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW.
SPEEDS LOOK MAINLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS. THIS FLOW REGIME USUALLY
FAVORS NIGHT/MORNING SHOWER CHANCES WITH ISOLATED STORMS. THE
MARINE STORMS MAY START TO PACK MORE PUNCH TUE/WED AS A POCKET OF
COOLER AIR ALOFT MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  76  91  75  91 /  20  30  20  30
MCO  75  95  75  94 /  20  30  20  30
MLB  76  90  77  91 /  20  30  20  30
VRB  75  91  75  90 /  20  30  20  30
LEE  76  95  76  94 /  30  40  20  30
SFB  77  95  76  94 /  20  30  20  30
ORL  77  95  77  93 /  20  30  20  30
FPR  75  90  75  90 /  20  30  20  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PENDERGRAST
LONG TERM....ULRICH





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