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000
FXUS62 KMLB 241933
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
333 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Currently-Tonight...Sea breeze has been pushing steadily inland with
isolated showers/storms along it.  Cell movement is very slow, but
as the sea breeze continues to progress across the peninsula,
additional showers/storms will propagate farther west. The HRRR
model has been showing the convection mainly west and south of east
central Florida around 00z.  Will carry a slight early evening PoP,
then the GFS continues to show drier air pushing in from the east,
so the prospect for showers looks too low to mention even over the
Atlantic.

(Previous Discussion)

WED-THU...At the surface, high pressure will establish itself off
the NC/SC coast, keeping winds onshore. Aloft, a piece of the upper
level trough that has been prevalent over the eastern seaboard will
slowly cut off over the Bahamas. Dry NW flow aloft should help
temper rain chances through the period with PoPs at or below 10
percent. Temperatures around normal through the week with dewpoints
slowly increasing in the onshore flow.

FRI-MON...Run to run model differences continue to make this period
challenging, however, the latest guidance seems to have come into
better agreement regarding the expected evolution of the mid and
upper level cutoff low and any surface-related reflection. Both the
GFS and ECMWF have converged on a weak surface low developing east
of the state while gradually moving north toward the Carolinas. This
would keep us on the slightly drier and more subsident side of the
system, tempering overall rain chances through the weekend.
Regardless, sufficient low level moisture will allow for at least
chance PoPs in the forecast through the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
Isolated showers and storms have been popping up along the inland
moving east coast sea breeze boundary. This boundary will push
into west central Florida by early evening. A few lingering
boundaries may continue to generate isolated cells until sunset
mainly over inland terminals. Drier air will advect in from the
east overnight and the forecast will be dry/VFR through Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight...High pressure shifting off the Carolina coast will build a
few millibars which will increase the gradient, bringing mainly 10-15
knot east winds. Seas will build to 3-4 feet over most of the
waters. This east flow will also bring in drier air so no showers
are expected.

WED-THU...High pressure will establish itself off the NC/SC coast,
freshening the easterly flow occasionally up to 15 to 20 knots
offshore. Seas will gradually build to 3 to 4 feet and up to 5 feet
well offshore.

FRI-SAT...Weak low pressure expected to develop well east of the
state while gradually moving northward. Easterly flow remains in
place Friday before local gradient relaxes somewhat on Saturday.
Seas up to 4 feet nearshore and 5 feet offshore.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  67  84  67  82 /   0   0   0  10
MCO  68  87  66  86 /  10   0   0  10
MLB  71  84  70  83 /  10   0   0  10
VRB  70  85  69  84 /  10   0  10  10
LEE  68  90  66  87 /  10   0   0  10
SFB  67  87  66  85 /  10   0   0  10
ORL  69  87  68  85 /  10   0   0  10
FPR  69  84  68  84 /  10   0  10  20

&&

.MLB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

Forecasts...Lascody
Radar...Bragaw





000
FXUS62 KMLB 241331
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
931 AM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.UPDATE...

Today...Coastal dew points were noticeably higher this morning as an
easterly low level flow set up over the Atlantic during the night.
High pressure to the north will increase a few millibars today and
the onshore flow will become better established.  This will slowly
raise moisture levels, which were still quite low, around one inch
precipitable water, except a little higher in southern sections.

The HRRR model has been developing scattered showers along the east
coast sea breeze by midday and isolated lightning storms early-mid
afternoon from the Cape southward.  This looks a little too
aggressive given the early morning moisture profile.  The GFS does
not develop much precip except south of Lake Okeechobee where
moisture is higher.  So am not inclined to introduce shower/storm
chances any farther north than we currently have them. Do think that
the convective evolution will be quicker than yesterday as the east
coast sea breeze pushes inland at a faster pace.  With 500 mb temps
around minus 10C and dry air aloft, the storms that form will be
capable of producing strong wind gusts and small hail.  The greatest
chances for strong storms would be where boundary interactions
occur, primarily around Lake Okeechobee.

Do not see anything right now in the current forecast that needs
updating.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR expected KTIX-KMCO-KISM northward.  A small chance for showers
or storms exists south of there as the sea breeze forms and gets
pushed inland by a gradually increasing easterly flow.  Coastal
sites from KMLB-KSUA might be affected, though most probably
convective initiation will be just to their west.

&&

.MARINE...
Today...Weak high pressure building off the Carolina coast will
produce an east flow around 10 knots, except increasing to 10 to 15
knots across the southern waters this afternoon. Isolated to scattered
showers expected this morning into early afternoon south of the
Cape along with a slight chance for lightning storms.

&&

.MLB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
AM...None.

&&

$$

Forecasts...Lascody
Impact Wx...Bragaw





000
FXUS62 KMLB 240833
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
433 AM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Current...A dissipating frontal boundary is draped across south
Florida while a frontal trough is pushing offshore the southeast
U.S. Despite very dry air aloft, shallow moisture remains in the
low levels. This combined with some weak isentropic lift,
convergent boundaries and some coastal convergence is producing
scattered showers and isolated storms along the coast and adjacent
Atlantic early this morning.

Today...Weak high pressure over the Carolinas will build southeast
over the Atlantic behind the frontal trough and produce a light
onshore flow. Daytime heating interact with the low level moisture
and spark isolated to scattered showers over land, as well as
isolated storms. Have kept a slight chance of storms (20 percent)
from Osceola and Brevard southward, with 30 Percent around Lake
Okeechobee. The airmass in the mid levels is cool and dry so
a few strong storms will be possible. Max temps will be warmest
over the north interior near 90 and mid 80s coast.

Tonight...The GFS shows drier air pushing in from the east so
prospect for showers looks too low to mention even over the Atlc.

WED-THU...At the surface, high pressure will establish itself off
the NC/SC coast, keeping winds onshore. Aloft, a piece of the upper
level trough that has been prevalent over the eastern seaboard will
slowly cut off over the Bahamas. Dry NW flow aloft should help
temper rain chances through the period with PoPs at or below 10
percent. Temperatures around normal through the week with dewpoints
slowly increasing in the onshore flow.

FRI-MON...Run to run model differences continue to make this period
challenging, however, the latest guidance seems to have come into
better agreement regarding the expected evolution of the mid and
upper level cutoff low and any surface-related reflection. Both the
GFS and ECMWF have converged on a weak surface low developing east
of the state while gradually moving north toward the Carolinas. This
would keep us on the slightly drier and more subsident side of the
system, tempering overall rain chances through the weekend.
Regardless, sufficient low level moisture will allow for at least
chance PoPs in the forecast through the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
Sct SHRA/Isold TSRA will be offshore the coastal terminals from
MLB southward early this morning. Then convection should develop
over land after 14Z and press toward the SW. Highest coverage
looks to be FPR-SUA during the mid day.

&&

.MARINE...
Today...Weak high pressure building off the Carolina coast will
produce an east flow around 10 knots, except increasing to 10 to
15 knots across the southern waters this aftn. Scattered showers
and storms this morning into early aftn south of the Cape.

WED-THU...High pressure will establish itself off the NC/SC coast,
freshening the easterly flow up to 15 to 20 knots offshore. Seas
will gradually build to 3 to 4 feet and up to 5 feet well
offshore.

FRI-SAT...Weak low pressure expected to develop well east of the
state while gradually moving northward. Easterly flow remains in
place Friday before local gradient relaxes somewhat on Saturday.
Seas up to 4 feet nearshore and 5 feet offshore.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  86  65  84  68 /  10   0   0   0
MCO  89  67  87  67 /  10  10  10  10
MLB  85  70  83  71 /  20  10  10  10
VRB  85  67  83  70 /  20  10  10  10
LEE  91  65  89  66 /  10  10  10   0
SFB  89  66  87  66 /  10  10  10   0
ORL  89  66  87  68 /  10  10  10   0
FPR  85  67  83  69 /  30  10  10  10

&&

.MLB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
AM...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kelly
LONG TERM....Ulrich





000
FXUS62 KMLB 240001
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
800 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2016

.UPDATE...

Early ZFP/grid update forthcoming to remove the small POPS across
the far south, as the few showers west of Lake Okeechobee are now
dissipating, with all the convection now confined to the MFL CWA.
Also tweaked sky cover grids lower as most areas will be clear
tonight.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. AREAS SCT060-070...BECMG SKC AFTER 02Z-03Z.

&&

.MARINE...High pressure building into Florida will produce a light
onshore breeze, with seas 1-2FT near shore and 2-3FT well offshore.

&&

UPDATE/AVIATION...Cristaldi
IMPACT WX...Sedlock

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 331 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2016/

TUE...Weak high pressure filling in behind weakening frontal
trough out over the Atlantic will provide a light onshore flow.
Deep moisture is indicted staying over south Florida, but the
models show slightly increased moisture into the central peninsula.
This moisture will be shallow, but MOS PoPs have gone up to 30-40
percent in the south with a slight chance into central sections. A
mid level impulse is indicted rotating through the trough along
the east coast, so cannot discount these higher PoPs. Have
included a mention for slight chance of showers/storms south of
about Kissimmee to Cocoa, except 30 percent around Okeechobee. It
will remain cool/dry aloft, so any afternoon storms could be
strong.

WED-THU...Dry pattern continues as a weak upper level low begins
to evolve and drop southeast toward the Bahamas. At the surface,
high pressure ridge to the north will allow onshore flow to
develop and slowly increase. Precipitable water remains low
through the period, around an inch or less, and will therefore
keep rain chances out of the forecast through Thursday. However,
deeper moisture will begin to pool over the Bahamas toward FL
Atlantic coast south of Lake Okeechobee. Temperatures will be
within a few degrees of normal.

FRI-SUN...While the GFS and ECMWF both continue to show a piece of
the upper level low hanging back near the Bahamas this weekend,
considerable uncertainty remains in regards to the expected
evolution of any surface-related feature. The GFS remains the
stronger of the two solutions with a closed surface low moving
retrograding toward the peninsula on Sunday while the ECMWF keeps
the system as an open wave (though it too tries to close off a
surface circulation early next week). Confident that moisture will
increase on Friday and into the weekend, justifying chance PoPs
through the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR is expected tonight except for a slight chance of storms
mainly south of KVRB to KSUA. On Tue the moisture will increase
slightly and bring a small chance of showers/storms northward to
KMLB. The storms may stay inland of the coastal TAF sites though.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight-Tue...Weak high pressure filling in behind weakening frontal
trough out over the Atlantic will provide a gentle onshore flow
on Tue. Speeds may reach 10-15 knots in the southern waters
especially during the afternoon. A chance for storms also exists
there tonight and Tue.

WED-FRI...High pressure ridge axis extends back north of the area
mid to late week, with onshore flow redeveloping and slowly increasing
into late week up to 15 kts offshore. Seas will reside around 2-3
feet Wednesday, gradually building up to 3-4 feet into late week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  66  85  65  83 /  10  10   0   0
MCO  68  88  67  88 /  10  10  10   0
MLB  71  84  69  83 /  10  20  10   0
VRB  70  84  67  84 /  20  20  10   0
LEE  68  90  67  90 /  10  10  10   0
SFB  68  88  66  87 /  10  10  10   0
ORL  70  89  68  87 /  10  10  10   0
FPR  69  84  67  84 /  20  20  10   0

&&

.MLB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
AM...None.

&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KMLB 231330
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
930 AM EDT MON MAY 23 2016

.UPDATE...

Today...The back edge of a mid/high cloud deck has been shifting
southeast 15-20 knots and will be southeast of Martin county by
early afternoon.  A frontal boundary has been sliding southeast over
the Atlantic but the tail end trailing into the peninsula was weak
and slowing down.  A small area of showers was streaming eastward
near this boundary from around Lake Okeechobee to Martin county.
Once this batch of showers exits into he Atlantic, the GFS and
HRRR suggest that there will be enough residual moisture lingering
for the sea breeze to generate isolated showers in the south this
afternoon.  Do not see any reason to dispute this so will have small
PoPs from Okeechobee to the Treasure Coast. Elsewhere to the north,
morning soundings show dry air just off the surface which will mix
down and keep the forecast dry.  Have already made adjustments to
the cloud, PoP and weather grids to account for the exiting cloud
band and lingering shower chances in the south.

&&

.AVIATION...
Mainly VFR next 24 hours. There is a small chance for showers at
KSUA through morning.  A few sea breeze showers are expected KVRB-
KSUA this afternoon but coverage looks too low to mention in TAFs
other than vicinity shower at KSUA.

&&

.MARINE...
Today...North winds were around 10 knots at buoy 41009 this morning
as frontal trough settled southward.  This boundary will weaken and
wash out over the southern waters, with the pressure gradient
easing. Expect a well developed sea breeze circulation over the
peninsula this afternoon with 10-15 knot speeds near the coast but
10 knot or less northeast/east winds elsewhere over the waters.
Seas 2-3 feet.

&&

.MLB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
AM...None.

&&

$$

Forecasts...Lascody
Impact Wx...Spratt





000
FXUS62 KMLB 230842
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
442 AM EDT MON MAY 23 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Today...A mid level cut-off low located along the mid Atlantic
coast has pushed a weak frontal boundary into south Florida where
it is forecast to weaken. A shortwave trough with strung out
vorticity pin-wheeling around the upper low will push across
central FL this morning while a 250 mb jet pushes east of the
area. These features will scour out the considerable high
cloudiness from north to south this morning. Isolated sprinkles
will move east across Okeechobee/Treasure coast early this
morning, especially Martin county.

Light north winds will turn NE-E in a sea breeze along the coast
and spread inland later in the day.  Model guidance (HRRR, local
WRF, GFS) suggests a few showers developing near the coast assocd
with the sea breeze this aftn. So have drawn a (very) small PoP
for the Treasure coast counties. With much drier air moving in at
the mid levels, prospect for thunder looks very low. With an
earlier onset of the sea breeze, max temps will not be as hot
along the coast with mid 80s, upper 80s interior.

TUE-THU...Generally dry pattern expected through midweek as a large
upper low gradually pulls away from the eastern seaboard and ridging
asserts itself over the Gulf of Mexico. At the surface, high
pressure over the Atlantic will allow onshore flow to develop and
slowly increase. Precipitable water remains low through the period,
around an inch or less, and will therefore keep rain chances out of
the forecast through Thursday. Temperatures will be within a few
degrees of normal.

FRI-SUN...While the GFS and ECMWF both continue to show a piece of
the upper level low hanging back near the Bahamas this weekend,
considerable uncertainty remains in regards to the expected
evolution of any surface-related feature. The GFS remains the
stronger of the two solutions with a closed surface low moving
toward the Peninsula on Sunday while the ECMWF keeps the system as
an open wave (though it too tries to close off a surface circulation
early next week). Confident that moisture will increase on Friday
and into the weekend, justifying chance PoPs through the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
Mainly VFR next 24 hours. Isold --SHRA (sprinkles) may affect
VRB/FPR/SUA through 12Z. Light north winds behind a weak frontal
boundary will turn onshore (E-NE) at coastal terminals this
afternoon. Isold SHRA may develop this aftn mainly south of MLB
but coverage looks too low to mention in TAFs.

&&

.MARINE...
Today...A period of north winds will occur behind a weak frontal
boundary that has now pushed south of the waters. Wind speeds of
10-15 knots expected early this morning but the pressure gradient
will weaken and winds will veer out of the northeast to east in a
sea breeze circulation near the coast. Choppy wind waves in the
open Atlantic this morning due to the north wind component will
diminish by aftn.

TUE-FRI...High pressure ridge axis extends back north of the area
into mid week and strengthens, with onshore flow redeveloping and
slowly increasing into late week up to 15 kts offshore. Seas will
reside around 2-3 feet Tuesday, gradually building up to 3-4 feet
into late week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  86  66  85  68 /   0   0   0  10
MCO  88  67  89  68 /  10   0  10  10
MLB  85  69  85  71 /  10  10  10  10
VRB  85  69  86  69 /  20  10  10  10
LEE  89  67  90  69 /   0   0  10  10
SFB  88  67  89  68 /   0   0  10  10
ORL  88  69  89  70 /  10   0  10  10
FPR  85  69  86  70 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.MLB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
AM...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kelly
LONG TERM....Ulrich





000
FXUS62 KMLB 230049
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
849 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Breezy West to NW flow through a deep layer brought local dewpoints
down to the U50s at many sites by mid-afternoon. Surface winds will
decouple to 10 mph or less this evening with some higher gusts
remaining at the beaches. An uneventful overnight can be expected
with only sct-bkn higher level cloudiness streaming overhead. the
forecast is in good shape.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR expected through Mon.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds will diminish during tonight with loss of mixed environment
winds moving to the near shore waters from the mainland. Low
northeast of FL will lifts slowly north towards the Carolina coast.

The gradient will continue to weaken into Mon and there will be a
well defined sea breeze circulation developing over the central
peninsula in the afternoon.

&&

.MLB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
AM...None.

&&

$$

JP/TES





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