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000
FXUS62 KMLB 301343
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
943 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...

...FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES IN EFFECT INTO THIS EVENING...
...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN LIKELY WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS AGAIN TODAY...

CURRENT-THIS AFTERNOON...RADARS DETECTING SHOWERS MOVING WEST TO
EAST IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO COMING ASHORE BETWEEN TAMPA AND
CEDAR KEY. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING DRIER MID AND UPPER
LEVEL AIR MASS REACHING SOUTH TO ROUGHLY A CAPE CANAVERAL TO
SARASOTA LINE. THE 30/12Z SOUNDINGS FROM TALLAHASSEE AND
JACKSONVILLE SHOW A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS ABOVE 500MB...TAMPA HEADING
THAT WAY WHILE MIAMI WAS STILL VERY WET THROUGH THE COLUMN. CLOSED
1007MB LOW ANALYZED EAST OF JACKSONVILLE. ASSOCIATED FRONT...BASED
ON BUOY OBS/TWC ANALYSIS...JUST NORTH OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

WHATEVER NORTHWEST TILT TO THE MID LEVEL/500MB FLOW THERE WAS
EARLIER FLATTENS DURING THE DAY PER LATEST RUC/GFS RUNS.

THE SOUTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE FRONT MAY SLOW DOWN AS THE FLOW ALOFT
FLATTENS. MAIN PROBLEM LOOKS TO BE TRAINING SHOWERS/STORMS SOUTH OF
THE FRONT OVER ALREADY VERY SOGGY/SATURATED LAND.

CURRENT 70 NORTH 60 SOUTH POP LOOKS GOOD GIVEN THE VERY WET AIR MASS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND MID LEVEL IMPULSES MOVING WEST TO EAST OVER
CENTRAL FLORIDA DURING THE DAY. LIKE MONDAY...LATE AFTERNOON EARLY
EVENING STORMS FOR THE EAST SIDE OF THE PENINSULA A GOOD BET.

PREVIOUS ZONES DISCUSSION

TODAY...A SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD LAKE AND
VOLUSIA COUNTIES INTO MID DAY AND THROUGH THE ORLANDO METRO AND
NORTHERN BREVARD COUNTY INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON AND TWD SRN BREVARD
COUNTY AND OSCEOLA COUNTY TOWARD EARLY EVENING. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
AGAIN TODAY...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
DEEP MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FL WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AROUND TWO INCHES. WEAKER IMPULSES ARE PROGGED IN THE
MID LVL WESTERLY FLOW BUT SHOULD STILL BE SUFFICIENT TO AID IN
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ESPEC NEAR THE APPROACHING LOW LVL FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. ONE CONCERN FOR
TODAY IS THAT SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY TRAIN FROM WEST TO EAST WITH
THE MID LAYER FLOW ALMOST PARALLEL TO THE APPROACHING FRONT SLIDING
SOUTH. ANOTHER CONCERN IS THAT THE AREAS THAT WILL LIKELY
SEE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL TODAY ARE THOSE SAME AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN
ABUNDANT RAINFALL OVER THE PAST WEEK OR SO...GENERALLY FROM OSCEOLA
AND BREVARD COUNTY NORTHWARD TO LAKE/VOLUSIA COUNTIES INCLUDING THE
ORLANDO METRO. HAVE RAISED POPS TO 70 PCT FROM OSCEOLA AND BREVARD
NORTHWARD AND WILL KEEP 60 PCT ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH. HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE MID-UPPER 80S NORTH AND UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 AROUND LAKE
OKEECHOBEE.

TONIGHT...WILL INDICATE HIGHEST EVENING POPS FROM LAKE COUNTY INTO
THE ORLANDO AREA AND SE INTO BREVARD WHERE THE LOW LVL FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SHOULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. AFTER MIDNIGHT WILL KEEP A SLIGHT SHOWER CHANCE
OVER LAND BUT MOST OF THE RAINFALL SHOULD HAVE ENDED. LOWS IN THE
LOWER 70S.

WED-THU...THE PREVIOUS WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE SLOWLY SOUTH
OF CENTRAL FLORIDA ON WED BUT WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH IN PROXIMITY
ALONG WITH AMPLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE TO SPARK AT LEAST A 50 PERCENT
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. MOISTURE
REMAINS ABUNDANT INTO THU AND WITH PERIODIC MID-LEVEL IMPULSES
EMBEDDED IN THE NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT SHOULD STILL WARRANT CHANCE
WORDING FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS ESPECIALLY SOUTHWARD. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK BOTH DAYS WITH THE EAST COAST
SEA BREEZE PROVIDING AN ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT.
STEERING FLOW FOR CELLS REMAINS FROM THE WEST TO THE EAST SO ANY
ACTIVITY OVER THE INTERIOR DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING COULD
WORK BACK TOWARDS THE EAST COAST LATE IN THE DAY. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH NUISANCE FLOODING POSSIBLE ACROSS
AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS.

FRI-MON...UPPER TROUGHINESS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WILL HELP PUSH
ANOTHER FRONT INTO NORTH FLORIDA LATE ON FRI AND THEN THROUGH
CENTRAL FLORIDA ON SAT. BY SUN THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIE ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS. MOISTURE WILL AGAIN POOL ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY. AN EAST COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY WILL
DEVELOP AND MOVE SLIGHTLY INLAND AGAIN ON FRI BUT THE DEEP-LAYER
WESTERLY FLOW ON SAT WILL LIKELY INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT. MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS BETWEEN A 40 AND 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF CONVECTION FOR EACH
OF THESE DAYS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH DRIER CONDITIONS FOR BOTH
SUN/MON. ANY PRECIPITATION LATE IN THE WEEKEND (SUN) OR FOR THE
START OF NEXT WEEK (MON) WILL BE CONFINED ALONG THE TREASURE COAST
AND SOUTHWARD...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON WHERE RESIDUAL MOISTURE MAY
BE GREATEST.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR TEMPO IFR KISM-KMLB NORTH. VFR TEMPO MVFR/IFR SOUTH OF
KISM-KMLB THIS MORNING AS STRATUS MOVES THROUGH. PREVAILING MVFR
THIS AFTERNOON TEMPO IFR IN/NEAR SHRA/TSRA THROUGH SUNSET.

PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION
EARLY MORNING STRATUS WILL AFFECT NRN TERMINALS THROUGH AROUND 12Z
WITH SOME IFR CIGS. FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING SE TWD NRN TERMINALS BY
MID DAY INTO THE AFTERNOON WILL BRING WITH IT SHRA/TSRA CHCS AND
SW/W WINDS BECOMING NW/N BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AND NE LATE FOR
KDAB/KLEE. WILL INDICATE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES FROM 16Z-23Z WITH
TEMPO SHRA FOR MOST TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
CURRENT-THIS AFTERNOON...NEARSHORE BUOYS RECORDING SOUTHWEST TO WEST
WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS. THE BUOY 120NM EAST OF NEW SMYRNA BEACH WAS
RECORD SOUTHWEST AROUND 15 KNOTS. ALL THE BUOYS WERE RECORDING 2 TO
3 FOOT SEAS.

SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS NEARSHORE AND AROUND 15 KNOTS
WELL OFFSHORE AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS
REMAIN 2 TO 3 FEET.

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR THE MARINE FORECAST UPDATE.

PREVIOUS MARINE DISCUSSION
OFFSHORE WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY ACROSS THE NRN WATERS TONIGHT
BUT NOT TO STRONG UP TO AROUND 10 KNOTS. SEAS 2-3 FT NEAR SHORE AND
3-4 FT WELL OFFSHORE.

WED-SAT...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH OF THE COASTAL
WATERS ON WED WITH A DAILY SEA BREEZE EXPECTED EACH DAY THRU FRI.
ANOTHER FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE AREA ON SAT. LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP EACH NIGHT WITH THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IN
PLACE AND ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING EACH AFTERNOON THRU FRI FROM SEA
BREEZE FORMATION. WIND SPEEDS AOB 15 KTS. DEEPER WESTERLY FLOW ON
SAT LIKELY TO INHIBIT SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT ON THIS DAY. WESTERLY
STEERING FLOW FOR STORMS OVER LAND WILL CONTINUE THRU THE PERIOD
WITH THE REALISTIC THREAT FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS TO MOVE OVER
THE INTRACOASTAL AND NEAR SHORE WATERS OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
AMPLE MOISTURE CONTINUES OVER THE AREA WITH A 40 TO 50 PERCENT
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS. SEAS 2-3 FT...EXCEPT POSSIBLY
SOME 4 FT SEAS RETURNING AND WELL OFFSHORE ON SAT. PRIMARY THREATS
TO SMALL CRAFT BOATING FROM STORMS REMAIN CLOUD TO WATER
LIGHTNING....GUSTY WINDS...TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS AND LOCALLY HIGHER
SEAS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ST JOHNS RIVER AT ASTOR CONTINUES SLIGHTLY ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AT
ASTOR WITH WATER LEVELS ALSO RISING NEAR DELAND AND LAKE HARNEY...
MAY APPROACH OR REACH ACTION STAGE LATER THIS WEEK. SHINGLE CREEK
HAS ALSO BEEN ON THE RISE TO WITHIN A HALF FOOT OF ACTION STAGE AT
CAMPBELL THIS MORNING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR WITH THE POSSIBLE
NEED FOR A SHORT FUSE FLOOD STATEMENT OR WARNING IN THIS AREA LATE
TODAY SHOULD HEAVY RAIN DEVELOP OVER THE SHINGLE CREEK BASIN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  85  72  86  74 /  70  40  50  30
MCO  87  72  89  73 /  70  50  50  30
MLB  87  73  87  74 /  70  50  50  30
VRB  88  72  88  74 /  70  30  50  30
LEE  87  73  89  74 /  70  40  50  30
SFB  87  73  89  74 /  70  50  50  30
ORL  87  74  89  75 /  70  50  50  30
FPR  88  72  88  73 /  70  30  50  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL VOLUSIA-INDIAN
     RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA-MARTIN-NORTHERN BREVARD-NORTHERN LAKE-
     OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-
     SOUTHERN LAKE-ST. LUCIE.

AM...NONE.
&&

$$
IMPACT WX...LASCODY
HYDRO.......GLITTO
FORECASTS...WIMMER








000
FXUS62 KMLB 301343
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
943 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...

...FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES IN EFFECT INTO THIS EVENING...
...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN LIKELY WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS AGAIN TODAY...

CURRENT-THIS AFTERNOON...RADARS DETECTING SHOWERS MOVING WEST TO
EAST IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO COMING ASHORE BETWEEN TAMPA AND
CEDAR KEY. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING DRIER MID AND UPPER
LEVEL AIR MASS REACHING SOUTH TO ROUGHLY A CAPE CANAVERAL TO
SARASOTA LINE. THE 30/12Z SOUNDINGS FROM TALLAHASSEE AND
JACKSONVILLE SHOW A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS ABOVE 500MB...TAMPA HEADING
THAT WAY WHILE MIAMI WAS STILL VERY WET THROUGH THE COLUMN. CLOSED
1007MB LOW ANALYZED EAST OF JACKSONVILLE. ASSOCIATED FRONT...BASED
ON BUOY OBS/TWC ANALYSIS...JUST NORTH OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

WHATEVER NORTHWEST TILT TO THE MID LEVEL/500MB FLOW THERE WAS
EARLIER FLATTENS DURING THE DAY PER LATEST RUC/GFS RUNS.

THE SOUTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE FRONT MAY SLOW DOWN AS THE FLOW ALOFT
FLATTENS. MAIN PROBLEM LOOKS TO BE TRAINING SHOWERS/STORMS SOUTH OF
THE FRONT OVER ALREADY VERY SOGGY/SATURATED LAND.

CURRENT 70 NORTH 60 SOUTH POP LOOKS GOOD GIVEN THE VERY WET AIR MASS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND MID LEVEL IMPULSES MOVING WEST TO EAST OVER
CENTRAL FLORIDA DURING THE DAY. LIKE MONDAY...LATE AFTERNOON EARLY
EVENING STORMS FOR THE EAST SIDE OF THE PENINSULA A GOOD BET.

PREVIOUS ZONES DISCUSSION

TODAY...A SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD LAKE AND
VOLUSIA COUNTIES INTO MID DAY AND THROUGH THE ORLANDO METRO AND
NORTHERN BREVARD COUNTY INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON AND TWD SRN BREVARD
COUNTY AND OSCEOLA COUNTY TOWARD EARLY EVENING. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
AGAIN TODAY...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
DEEP MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FL WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AROUND TWO INCHES. WEAKER IMPULSES ARE PROGGED IN THE
MID LVL WESTERLY FLOW BUT SHOULD STILL BE SUFFICIENT TO AID IN
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ESPEC NEAR THE APPROACHING LOW LVL FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. ONE CONCERN FOR
TODAY IS THAT SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY TRAIN FROM WEST TO EAST WITH
THE MID LAYER FLOW ALMOST PARALLEL TO THE APPROACHING FRONT SLIDING
SOUTH. ANOTHER CONCERN IS THAT THE AREAS THAT WILL LIKELY
SEE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL TODAY ARE THOSE SAME AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN
ABUNDANT RAINFALL OVER THE PAST WEEK OR SO...GENERALLY FROM OSCEOLA
AND BREVARD COUNTY NORTHWARD TO LAKE/VOLUSIA COUNTIES INCLUDING THE
ORLANDO METRO. HAVE RAISED POPS TO 70 PCT FROM OSCEOLA AND BREVARD
NORTHWARD AND WILL KEEP 60 PCT ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH. HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE MID-UPPER 80S NORTH AND UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 AROUND LAKE
OKEECHOBEE.

TONIGHT...WILL INDICATE HIGHEST EVENING POPS FROM LAKE COUNTY INTO
THE ORLANDO AREA AND SE INTO BREVARD WHERE THE LOW LVL FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SHOULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. AFTER MIDNIGHT WILL KEEP A SLIGHT SHOWER CHANCE
OVER LAND BUT MOST OF THE RAINFALL SHOULD HAVE ENDED. LOWS IN THE
LOWER 70S.

WED-THU...THE PREVIOUS WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE SLOWLY SOUTH
OF CENTRAL FLORIDA ON WED BUT WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH IN PROXIMITY
ALONG WITH AMPLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE TO SPARK AT LEAST A 50 PERCENT
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. MOISTURE
REMAINS ABUNDANT INTO THU AND WITH PERIODIC MID-LEVEL IMPULSES
EMBEDDED IN THE NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT SHOULD STILL WARRANT CHANCE
WORDING FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS ESPECIALLY SOUTHWARD. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK BOTH DAYS WITH THE EAST COAST
SEA BREEZE PROVIDING AN ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT.
STEERING FLOW FOR CELLS REMAINS FROM THE WEST TO THE EAST SO ANY
ACTIVITY OVER THE INTERIOR DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING COULD
WORK BACK TOWARDS THE EAST COAST LATE IN THE DAY. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH NUISANCE FLOODING POSSIBLE ACROSS
AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS.

FRI-MON...UPPER TROUGHINESS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WILL HELP PUSH
ANOTHER FRONT INTO NORTH FLORIDA LATE ON FRI AND THEN THROUGH
CENTRAL FLORIDA ON SAT. BY SUN THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIE ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS. MOISTURE WILL AGAIN POOL ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY. AN EAST COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY WILL
DEVELOP AND MOVE SLIGHTLY INLAND AGAIN ON FRI BUT THE DEEP-LAYER
WESTERLY FLOW ON SAT WILL LIKELY INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT. MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS BETWEEN A 40 AND 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF CONVECTION FOR EACH
OF THESE DAYS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH DRIER CONDITIONS FOR BOTH
SUN/MON. ANY PRECIPITATION LATE IN THE WEEKEND (SUN) OR FOR THE
START OF NEXT WEEK (MON) WILL BE CONFINED ALONG THE TREASURE COAST
AND SOUTHWARD...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON WHERE RESIDUAL MOISTURE MAY
BE GREATEST.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR TEMPO IFR KISM-KMLB NORTH. VFR TEMPO MVFR/IFR SOUTH OF
KISM-KMLB THIS MORNING AS STRATUS MOVES THROUGH. PREVAILING MVFR
THIS AFTERNOON TEMPO IFR IN/NEAR SHRA/TSRA THROUGH SUNSET.

PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION
EARLY MORNING STRATUS WILL AFFECT NRN TERMINALS THROUGH AROUND 12Z
WITH SOME IFR CIGS. FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING SE TWD NRN TERMINALS BY
MID DAY INTO THE AFTERNOON WILL BRING WITH IT SHRA/TSRA CHCS AND
SW/W WINDS BECOMING NW/N BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AND NE LATE FOR
KDAB/KLEE. WILL INDICATE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES FROM 16Z-23Z WITH
TEMPO SHRA FOR MOST TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
CURRENT-THIS AFTERNOON...NEARSHORE BUOYS RECORDING SOUTHWEST TO WEST
WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS. THE BUOY 120NM EAST OF NEW SMYRNA BEACH WAS
RECORD SOUTHWEST AROUND 15 KNOTS. ALL THE BUOYS WERE RECORDING 2 TO
3 FOOT SEAS.

SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS NEARSHORE AND AROUND 15 KNOTS
WELL OFFSHORE AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS
REMAIN 2 TO 3 FEET.

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR THE MARINE FORECAST UPDATE.

PREVIOUS MARINE DISCUSSION
OFFSHORE WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY ACROSS THE NRN WATERS TONIGHT
BUT NOT TO STRONG UP TO AROUND 10 KNOTS. SEAS 2-3 FT NEAR SHORE AND
3-4 FT WELL OFFSHORE.

WED-SAT...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH OF THE COASTAL
WATERS ON WED WITH A DAILY SEA BREEZE EXPECTED EACH DAY THRU FRI.
ANOTHER FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE AREA ON SAT. LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP EACH NIGHT WITH THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IN
PLACE AND ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING EACH AFTERNOON THRU FRI FROM SEA
BREEZE FORMATION. WIND SPEEDS AOB 15 KTS. DEEPER WESTERLY FLOW ON
SAT LIKELY TO INHIBIT SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT ON THIS DAY. WESTERLY
STEERING FLOW FOR STORMS OVER LAND WILL CONTINUE THRU THE PERIOD
WITH THE REALISTIC THREAT FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS TO MOVE OVER
THE INTRACOASTAL AND NEAR SHORE WATERS OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
AMPLE MOISTURE CONTINUES OVER THE AREA WITH A 40 TO 50 PERCENT
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS. SEAS 2-3 FT...EXCEPT POSSIBLY
SOME 4 FT SEAS RETURNING AND WELL OFFSHORE ON SAT. PRIMARY THREATS
TO SMALL CRAFT BOATING FROM STORMS REMAIN CLOUD TO WATER
LIGHTNING....GUSTY WINDS...TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS AND LOCALLY HIGHER
SEAS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ST JOHNS RIVER AT ASTOR CONTINUES SLIGHTLY ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AT
ASTOR WITH WATER LEVELS ALSO RISING NEAR DELAND AND LAKE HARNEY...
MAY APPROACH OR REACH ACTION STAGE LATER THIS WEEK. SHINGLE CREEK
HAS ALSO BEEN ON THE RISE TO WITHIN A HALF FOOT OF ACTION STAGE AT
CAMPBELL THIS MORNING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR WITH THE POSSIBLE
NEED FOR A SHORT FUSE FLOOD STATEMENT OR WARNING IN THIS AREA LATE
TODAY SHOULD HEAVY RAIN DEVELOP OVER THE SHINGLE CREEK BASIN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  85  72  86  74 /  70  40  50  30
MCO  87  72  89  73 /  70  50  50  30
MLB  87  73  87  74 /  70  50  50  30
VRB  88  72  88  74 /  70  30  50  30
LEE  87  73  89  74 /  70  40  50  30
SFB  87  73  89  74 /  70  50  50  30
ORL  87  74  89  75 /  70  50  50  30
FPR  88  72  88  73 /  70  30  50  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL VOLUSIA-INDIAN
     RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA-MARTIN-NORTHERN BREVARD-NORTHERN LAKE-
     OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-
     SOUTHERN LAKE-ST. LUCIE.

AM...NONE.
&&

$$
IMPACT WX...LASCODY
HYDRO.......GLITTO
FORECASTS...WIMMER









000
FXUS62 KMLB 300716
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
315 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...

...FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES IN EFFECT INTO THIS EVENING...
...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN LIKELY WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS AGAIN TODAY...

TODAY...A SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD LAKE AND
VOLUSIA COUNTIES INTO MID DAY AND THROUGH THE ORLANDO METRO AND
NORTHERN BREVARD COUNTY INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON AND TWD SRN BREVARD
COUNTY AND OSCEOLA COUNTY TOWARD EARLY EVENING. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
AGAIN TODAY...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
DEEP MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FL WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AROUND TWO INCHES. WEAKER IMPULSES ARE PROGGED IN THE
MID LVL WESTERLY FLOW BUT SHOULD STILL BE SUFFICIENT TO AID IN
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ESPEC NEAR THE APPROACHING LOW LVL FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. ONE CONCERN FOR
TODAY IS THAT SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY TRAIN FROM WEST TO EAST WITH
THE MID LAYER FLOW ALMOST PARALLEL TO THE APPROACHING FRONT SLIDING
SOUTH. ANOTHER CONCERN IS THAT THE AREAS THAT WILL LIKELY
SEE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL TODAY ARE THOSE SAME AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN
ABUNDANT RAINFALL OVER THE PAST WEEK OR SO...GENERALLY FROM OSCEOLA
AND BREVARD COUNTY NORTHWARD TO LAKE/VOLUSIA COUNTIES INCLUDING THE
ORLANDO METRO. HAVE RAISED POPS TO 70 PCT FROM OSCEOLA AND BREVARD
NORTHWARD AND WILL KEEP 60 PCT ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH. HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE MID-UPPER 80S NORTH AND UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 AROUND LAKE
OKEECHOBEE.

TONIGHT...WILL INDICATE HIGHEST EVENING POPS FROM LAKE COUNTY INTO
THE ORLANDO AREA AND SE INTO BREVARD WHERE THE LOW LVL FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SHOULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. AFTER MIDNIGHT WILL KEEP A SLIGHT SHOWER CHANCE
OVER LAND BUT MOST OF THE RAINFALL SHOULD HAVE ENDED. LOWS IN THE
LOWER 70S.

WED-THU...THE PREVIOUS WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE SLOWLY SOUTH
OF CENTRAL FLORIDA ON WED BUT WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH IN PROXIMITY
ALONG WITH AMPLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE TO SPARK AT LEAST A 50 PERCENT
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. MOISTURE
REMAINS ABUNDANT INTO THU AND WITH PERIODIC MID-LEVEL IMPULSES
EMBEDDED IN THE NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT SHOULD STILL WARRANT CHANCE
WORDING FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS ESPECIALLY SOUTHWARD. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK BOTH DAYS WITH THE EAST COAST
SEA BREEZE PROVIDING AN ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT.
STEERING FLOW FOR CELLS REMAINS FROM THE WEST TO THE EAST SO ANY
ACTIVITY OVER THE INTERIOR DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING COULD
WORK BACK TOWARDS THE EAST COAST LATE IN THE DAY. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH NUISANCE FLOODING POSSIBLE ACROSS
AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS.

FRI-MON...UPPER TROUGHINESS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WILL HELP PUSH
ANOTHER FRONT INTO NORTH FLORIDA LATE ON FRI AND THEN THROUGH
CENTRAL FLORIDA ON SAT. BY SUN THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIE ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS. MOISTURE WILL AGAIN POOL ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY. AN EAST COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY WILL
DEVELOP AND MOVE SLIGHTLY INLAND AGAIN ON FRI BUT THE DEEP-LAYER
WESTERLY FLOW ON SAT WILL LIKELY INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT. MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS BETWEEN A 40 AND 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF CONVECTION FOR EACH
OF THESE DAYS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH DRIER CONDITIONS FOR BOTH
SUN/MON. ANY PRECIPITATION LATE IN THE WEEKEND (SUN) OR FOR THE
START OF NEXT WEEK (MON) WILL BE CONFINED ALONG THE TREASURE COAST
AND SOUTHWARD...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON WHERE RESIDUAL MOISTURE MAY
BE GREATEST.

&&

.AVIATION...
EARLY MORNING STRATUS WILL AFFECT NRN TERMINALS THROUGH AROUND 12Z
WITH SOME IFR CIGS. FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING SE TWD NRN TERMINALS BY
MID DAY INTO THE AFTERNOON WILL BRING WITH IT SHRA/TSRA CHCS AND
SW/W WINDS BECOMING NW/N BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AND NE LATE FOR
KDAB/KLEE. WILL INDICATE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES FROM 16Z-23Z WITH
TEMPO SHRA FOR MOST TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
OFFSHORE WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY ACROSS THE NRN WATERS TONIGHT
BUT NOT TO STRONG UP TO AROUND 10 KNOTS. SEAS 2-3 FT NEAR SHORE AND
3-4 FT WELL OFFSHORE.

WED-SAT...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH OF THE COASTAL
WATERS ON WED WITH A DAILY SEA BREEZE EXPECTED EACH DAY THRU FRI.
ANOTHER FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE AREA ON SAT. LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP EACH NIGHT WITH THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IN
PLACE AND ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING EACH AFTERNOON THRU FRI FROM SEA
BREEZE FORMATION. WIND SPEEDS AOB 15 KTS. DEEPER WESTERLY FLOW ON
SAT LIKELY TO INHIBIT SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT ON THIS DAY. WESTERLY
STEERING FLOW FOR STORMS OVER LAND WILL CONTINUE THRU THE PERIOD
WITH THE REALISTIC THREAT FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS TO MOVE OVER
THE INTRACOASTAL AND NEAR SHORE WATERS OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
AMPLE MOISTURE CONTINUES OVER THE AREA WITH A 40 TO 50 PERCENT
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS. SEAS 2-3 FT...EXCEPT POSSIBLY
SOME 4 FT SEAS RETURNING AND WELL OFFSHORE ON SAT. PRIMARY THREATS
TO SMALL CRAFT BOATING FROM STORMS REMAIN CLOUD TO WATER
LIGHTNING....GUSTY WINDS...TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS AND LOCALLY HIGHER
SEAS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE ST JOHNS RIVER AT ASTOR CONTINUES SLIGHTLY ABOVE FLOOD STAGE
WITH WATER LEVELS ALSO RISING NEAR DELAND AND LAKE HARNEY. THESE TWO
SITES MAY APPROACH ACTION STAGE LATER THIS WEEK. SHINGLE CREEK HAS
ALSO BEEN ON THE RISE TO WITHIN A HALF FOOT OF ACTION STAGE AT 3 AM
AT CAMPBELL. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR WITH THE POSSIBLE NEED FOR A
SHORT FUSE FLOOD WARNING FOR THIS AREA LATER TODAY SHOULD HEAVY RAIN
DEVELOP IN THE SHINGLE CREEK BASIN ACROSS WESTERN ORANGE COUNTY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  85  72  86  74 /  70  40  50  30
MCO  87  72  89  73 /  70  50  50  30
MLB  87  73  87  74 /  70  50  50  30
VRB  88  72  88  74 /  70  30  50  30
LEE  87  73  89  74 /  70  40  50  30
SFB  87  73  89  74 /  70  50  50  30
ORL  87  74  89  75 /  70  50  50  30
FPR  88  72  88  73 /  70  30  50  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL VOLUSIA-INDIAN
     RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA-MARTIN-NORTHERN BREVARD-NORTHERN LAKE-
     OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-
     SOUTHERN LAKE-ST. LUCIE.

AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...VOLKMER
LONG TERM....SEDLOCK









000
FXUS62 KMLB 300716
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
315 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...

...FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES IN EFFECT INTO THIS EVENING...
...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN LIKELY WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS AGAIN TODAY...

TODAY...A SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD LAKE AND
VOLUSIA COUNTIES INTO MID DAY AND THROUGH THE ORLANDO METRO AND
NORTHERN BREVARD COUNTY INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON AND TWD SRN BREVARD
COUNTY AND OSCEOLA COUNTY TOWARD EARLY EVENING. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
AGAIN TODAY...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
DEEP MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FL WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AROUND TWO INCHES. WEAKER IMPULSES ARE PROGGED IN THE
MID LVL WESTERLY FLOW BUT SHOULD STILL BE SUFFICIENT TO AID IN
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ESPEC NEAR THE APPROACHING LOW LVL FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. ONE CONCERN FOR
TODAY IS THAT SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY TRAIN FROM WEST TO EAST WITH
THE MID LAYER FLOW ALMOST PARALLEL TO THE APPROACHING FRONT SLIDING
SOUTH. ANOTHER CONCERN IS THAT THE AREAS THAT WILL LIKELY
SEE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL TODAY ARE THOSE SAME AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN
ABUNDANT RAINFALL OVER THE PAST WEEK OR SO...GENERALLY FROM OSCEOLA
AND BREVARD COUNTY NORTHWARD TO LAKE/VOLUSIA COUNTIES INCLUDING THE
ORLANDO METRO. HAVE RAISED POPS TO 70 PCT FROM OSCEOLA AND BREVARD
NORTHWARD AND WILL KEEP 60 PCT ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH. HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE MID-UPPER 80S NORTH AND UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 AROUND LAKE
OKEECHOBEE.

TONIGHT...WILL INDICATE HIGHEST EVENING POPS FROM LAKE COUNTY INTO
THE ORLANDO AREA AND SE INTO BREVARD WHERE THE LOW LVL FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SHOULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. AFTER MIDNIGHT WILL KEEP A SLIGHT SHOWER CHANCE
OVER LAND BUT MOST OF THE RAINFALL SHOULD HAVE ENDED. LOWS IN THE
LOWER 70S.

WED-THU...THE PREVIOUS WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE SLOWLY SOUTH
OF CENTRAL FLORIDA ON WED BUT WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH IN PROXIMITY
ALONG WITH AMPLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE TO SPARK AT LEAST A 50 PERCENT
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. MOISTURE
REMAINS ABUNDANT INTO THU AND WITH PERIODIC MID-LEVEL IMPULSES
EMBEDDED IN THE NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT SHOULD STILL WARRANT CHANCE
WORDING FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS ESPECIALLY SOUTHWARD. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK BOTH DAYS WITH THE EAST COAST
SEA BREEZE PROVIDING AN ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT.
STEERING FLOW FOR CELLS REMAINS FROM THE WEST TO THE EAST SO ANY
ACTIVITY OVER THE INTERIOR DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING COULD
WORK BACK TOWARDS THE EAST COAST LATE IN THE DAY. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH NUISANCE FLOODING POSSIBLE ACROSS
AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS.

FRI-MON...UPPER TROUGHINESS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WILL HELP PUSH
ANOTHER FRONT INTO NORTH FLORIDA LATE ON FRI AND THEN THROUGH
CENTRAL FLORIDA ON SAT. BY SUN THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIE ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS. MOISTURE WILL AGAIN POOL ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY. AN EAST COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY WILL
DEVELOP AND MOVE SLIGHTLY INLAND AGAIN ON FRI BUT THE DEEP-LAYER
WESTERLY FLOW ON SAT WILL LIKELY INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT. MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS BETWEEN A 40 AND 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF CONVECTION FOR EACH
OF THESE DAYS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH DRIER CONDITIONS FOR BOTH
SUN/MON. ANY PRECIPITATION LATE IN THE WEEKEND (SUN) OR FOR THE
START OF NEXT WEEK (MON) WILL BE CONFINED ALONG THE TREASURE COAST
AND SOUTHWARD...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON WHERE RESIDUAL MOISTURE MAY
BE GREATEST.

&&

.AVIATION...
EARLY MORNING STRATUS WILL AFFECT NRN TERMINALS THROUGH AROUND 12Z
WITH SOME IFR CIGS. FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING SE TWD NRN TERMINALS BY
MID DAY INTO THE AFTERNOON WILL BRING WITH IT SHRA/TSRA CHCS AND
SW/W WINDS BECOMING NW/N BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AND NE LATE FOR
KDAB/KLEE. WILL INDICATE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES FROM 16Z-23Z WITH
TEMPO SHRA FOR MOST TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
OFFSHORE WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY ACROSS THE NRN WATERS TONIGHT
BUT NOT TO STRONG UP TO AROUND 10 KNOTS. SEAS 2-3 FT NEAR SHORE AND
3-4 FT WELL OFFSHORE.

WED-SAT...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH OF THE COASTAL
WATERS ON WED WITH A DAILY SEA BREEZE EXPECTED EACH DAY THRU FRI.
ANOTHER FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE AREA ON SAT. LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP EACH NIGHT WITH THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IN
PLACE AND ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING EACH AFTERNOON THRU FRI FROM SEA
BREEZE FORMATION. WIND SPEEDS AOB 15 KTS. DEEPER WESTERLY FLOW ON
SAT LIKELY TO INHIBIT SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT ON THIS DAY. WESTERLY
STEERING FLOW FOR STORMS OVER LAND WILL CONTINUE THRU THE PERIOD
WITH THE REALISTIC THREAT FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS TO MOVE OVER
THE INTRACOASTAL AND NEAR SHORE WATERS OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
AMPLE MOISTURE CONTINUES OVER THE AREA WITH A 40 TO 50 PERCENT
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS. SEAS 2-3 FT...EXCEPT POSSIBLY
SOME 4 FT SEAS RETURNING AND WELL OFFSHORE ON SAT. PRIMARY THREATS
TO SMALL CRAFT BOATING FROM STORMS REMAIN CLOUD TO WATER
LIGHTNING....GUSTY WINDS...TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS AND LOCALLY HIGHER
SEAS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE ST JOHNS RIVER AT ASTOR CONTINUES SLIGHTLY ABOVE FLOOD STAGE
WITH WATER LEVELS ALSO RISING NEAR DELAND AND LAKE HARNEY. THESE TWO
SITES MAY APPROACH ACTION STAGE LATER THIS WEEK. SHINGLE CREEK HAS
ALSO BEEN ON THE RISE TO WITHIN A HALF FOOT OF ACTION STAGE AT 3 AM
AT CAMPBELL. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR WITH THE POSSIBLE NEED FOR A
SHORT FUSE FLOOD WARNING FOR THIS AREA LATER TODAY SHOULD HEAVY RAIN
DEVELOP IN THE SHINGLE CREEK BASIN ACROSS WESTERN ORANGE COUNTY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  85  72  86  74 /  70  40  50  30
MCO  87  72  89  73 /  70  50  50  30
MLB  87  73  87  74 /  70  50  50  30
VRB  88  72  88  74 /  70  30  50  30
LEE  87  73  89  74 /  70  40  50  30
SFB  87  73  89  74 /  70  50  50  30
ORL  87  74  89  75 /  70  50  50  30
FPR  88  72  88  73 /  70  30  50  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL VOLUSIA-INDIAN
     RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA-MARTIN-NORTHERN BREVARD-NORTHERN LAKE-
     OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-
     SOUTHERN LAKE-ST. LUCIE.

AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...VOLKMER
LONG TERM....SEDLOCK








000
FXUS62 KMLB 300215
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1015 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR EAST CENTRAL FL THROUGH TUE EVENING...

WEAK SFC LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WITH A STNRY FRONT EXTENDING
BACK ACRS THE FL BIG BEND TO APALACHICOLA...EVENING RAOBS MEASURED A
SATURATED AIRMASS WITH PWAT VALUES BTWN 2.4"-2.5" ACRS THE
PENINSULA. STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT ACRS THE BNDRY ZONE ADDED TO AN
ALREADY UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO PRODUCE ANOTHER DAY OF WIDESPREAD RAIN
WITH LCL HEAVY AMOUNTS...NMRS REPORTS BTWN 2.0"-3.0"...HIGHEST
MEASURED AMOUNTS FROM EDGEWATER (VOLUSIA CO) AT 3.3" AND JENSEN
BEACH (MARTIN CO) AT 3.6".

FRONT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVERNIGHT AS SFC/LOW LVL RIDGING OVER THE
GREATER ANTILLES PREVENTS ANY MEANINGFUL SWD ADVANCE AS THE LOW
PUSHES E. LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS THE BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT HAS PUSHED
OFFSHORE WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL LOCATED OVER THE GULFSTREAM AS
OF LATE EVNG. THE WIDESPREAD RAIN HAS BURNED OFF MOST OF THE
CONVECTIVE ENERGY...OTHER THAN POCKETS OF -RA PRECIP ACRS E CENT FL
HAS LARGELY COME TO AN END. DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...
HOWEVER...AS H85-H30 MEAN RH VALUES OVER THE ERN GOMEX REMAIN AOA
70PCT...WHILE ADDITIONAL MID LVL IMPULSES ARE NOTED IN THE H85-H50
VORT FIELDS.

GIVEN THE HI MOISTURE BUT DIMINISHING LIFTING MECHANISMS...DIFFICULT
TO PINPOINT WHERE ANY ADDITIONAL SHRAS MIGHT OCCUR. WILL KEEP PRECIP
IN THE FCST OVERNIGHT...CUTTING BACK TO 30/40PCT WITH QPF BLO 0.10".
MINS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 70S WITH RAIN COOLED AIR.

&&

.AVIATION...
THRU 01/12Z...SE-SW SFC WNDS AOB 5KTS BCMG LGT VRBL AFT 06Z...
PREVAILING CIGS BTWN FL100-120 WITH AREAS MVFR/LCL IFR CIGS IN
-RA/BR...MAINLY NW OF KEVB-KISM. BTWN 01/12Z-01/15Z...SFC WNDS BCMG
W/NW 8-12KTS...PREVAILING CIGS BTWN FL040-060...CHC MVFR SHRAS/SLGT
CHC IFR TSRAS. AFT 01/15Z...PREVAILING CIGS BTWN FL040-060... MVFR
SHRAS/IFR TSRAS LKLY.

&&

.MARINE...
STALLED FRONTAL TROF OVER THE FL PANHANDLE/CAROLINA COAST WILL
INTERACT WITH A RIDGE AXIS OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES TO GENERATE A
GENTLE TO MODERATE SWRLY BREEZE OVERNIGHT. SEAS 2-3FT NEARSHORE AND
3-4FT OFFSHORE. LCLY HIGHER WINDS/SEAS S OF CAPE CANAVERAL THRU
MIDNIGHT AS A SQUALL LINE PUSHES ACRS THE GULF STREAM.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL VOLUSIA-INDIAN
     RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA-MARTIN-NORTHERN BREVARD-NORTHERN LAKE-
     OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-
     SOUTHERN LAKE-ST. LUCIE.

AM...NONE.

&&

$$

FORECAST/AVIATION...BRAGAW
RADAR/IMPACT WX.....PENDERGRAST






000
FXUS62 KMLB 300215
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1015 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR EAST CENTRAL FL THROUGH TUE EVENING...

WEAK SFC LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WITH A STNRY FRONT EXTENDING
BACK ACRS THE FL BIG BEND TO APALACHICOLA...EVENING RAOBS MEASURED A
SATURATED AIRMASS WITH PWAT VALUES BTWN 2.4"-2.5" ACRS THE
PENINSULA. STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT ACRS THE BNDRY ZONE ADDED TO AN
ALREADY UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO PRODUCE ANOTHER DAY OF WIDESPREAD RAIN
WITH LCL HEAVY AMOUNTS...NMRS REPORTS BTWN 2.0"-3.0"...HIGHEST
MEASURED AMOUNTS FROM EDGEWATER (VOLUSIA CO) AT 3.3" AND JENSEN
BEACH (MARTIN CO) AT 3.6".

FRONT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVERNIGHT AS SFC/LOW LVL RIDGING OVER THE
GREATER ANTILLES PREVENTS ANY MEANINGFUL SWD ADVANCE AS THE LOW
PUSHES E. LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS THE BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT HAS PUSHED
OFFSHORE WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL LOCATED OVER THE GULFSTREAM AS
OF LATE EVNG. THE WIDESPREAD RAIN HAS BURNED OFF MOST OF THE
CONVECTIVE ENERGY...OTHER THAN POCKETS OF -RA PRECIP ACRS E CENT FL
HAS LARGELY COME TO AN END. DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...
HOWEVER...AS H85-H30 MEAN RH VALUES OVER THE ERN GOMEX REMAIN AOA
70PCT...WHILE ADDITIONAL MID LVL IMPULSES ARE NOTED IN THE H85-H50
VORT FIELDS.

GIVEN THE HI MOISTURE BUT DIMINISHING LIFTING MECHANISMS...DIFFICULT
TO PINPOINT WHERE ANY ADDITIONAL SHRAS MIGHT OCCUR. WILL KEEP PRECIP
IN THE FCST OVERNIGHT...CUTTING BACK TO 30/40PCT WITH QPF BLO 0.10".
MINS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 70S WITH RAIN COOLED AIR.

&&

.AVIATION...
THRU 01/12Z...SE-SW SFC WNDS AOB 5KTS BCMG LGT VRBL AFT 06Z...
PREVAILING CIGS BTWN FL100-120 WITH AREAS MVFR/LCL IFR CIGS IN
-RA/BR...MAINLY NW OF KEVB-KISM. BTWN 01/12Z-01/15Z...SFC WNDS BCMG
W/NW 8-12KTS...PREVAILING CIGS BTWN FL040-060...CHC MVFR SHRAS/SLGT
CHC IFR TSRAS. AFT 01/15Z...PREVAILING CIGS BTWN FL040-060... MVFR
SHRAS/IFR TSRAS LKLY.

&&

.MARINE...
STALLED FRONTAL TROF OVER THE FL PANHANDLE/CAROLINA COAST WILL
INTERACT WITH A RIDGE AXIS OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES TO GENERATE A
GENTLE TO MODERATE SWRLY BREEZE OVERNIGHT. SEAS 2-3FT NEARSHORE AND
3-4FT OFFSHORE. LCLY HIGHER WINDS/SEAS S OF CAPE CANAVERAL THRU
MIDNIGHT AS A SQUALL LINE PUSHES ACRS THE GULF STREAM.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL VOLUSIA-INDIAN
     RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA-MARTIN-NORTHERN BREVARD-NORTHERN LAKE-
     OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-
     SOUTHERN LAKE-ST. LUCIE.

AM...NONE.

&&

$$

FORECAST/AVIATION...BRAGAW
RADAR/IMPACT WX.....PENDERGRAST







000
FXUS62 KMLB 291948
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
348 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...

...FLOOD WATCH WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR EAST CENTRAL FL THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TUESDAY EVENING...
...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND TUESDAY...

CURRENT-TONIGHT...A STATIONARY BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AND OFF GEORGIA SOUTH
CAROLINA WILL HAVE WEAK LOWS MOVE WEST TO EAST ALONG IT AS MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MOVE OVER NORTH FLORIDA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE STILL AROUND 2 TO 2.25 INCHES AND WILL
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. MANY AREAS ALREADY HAVING RECEIVED 1 TO
2 INCHES OF RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND SHOULD GET MORE RAIN HEAVY
LATE AFTERNOON IN TO THE EVENING. THIS WILL LEAD TO LOCALIZED
FLOODING DUE TO ACCUMULATING RAIN WATER. RAIN SHOULD SLACKEN LATE
EVENING...OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING THEN INCREASING COVERAGE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS MORE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE WEST TO EAST
THROUGH NORTH AND CENTRAL FLORIDA.

TUESDAY...A SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO HAVE DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT
MONDAY WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AND INTO THE ATLANTIC OFF
NORTHEAST FLORIDA BY TUESDAY EVENING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
STILL WELL ABOVE THEIR AVERAGE AT 2 TO 2.25 INCHES COMBINED WITH
RIPPLES OF MID LEVEL ENERGY MOVING WEST TO EAST OVER NORTH AND
CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THAT WILL AGGRAVATE
ALREADY WATER LOGGED AREAS ORLANDO NORTH.

WEDNESDAY...THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST
TO BE WELL EAST OF FLORIDA...GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA. HOWEVER...A
TRAILING COLD/COOL FRONT WILL STRETCH FROM THE LOW ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA. THE MID LEVEL FLOW FLATTENS OUT IN A WEST TO EAST PATTERN
AND WEAK IMPULSES OF MID LEVEL ENERGY/VORTICITY MOVE OVER CENTRAL
FLORIDA. PRECIPITABLE WATERS FORECAST TO REMAIN AROUND 2 INCHES AND
WITH MID LEVEL PARCELS OF ENERGY MOVING OVER/THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA
RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 50 PERCENT.

PREVIOUS ZONES DISCUSSION

TODAY...STRONG S/W ALOFT NEAR THE NRN GULF COAST WILL MOVE EASTWARD
TODAY AND INCREASE UPPER DIVERGENCE OVER E CENTRAL FL AS AN AREA OF
SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND MOVES TWD THE NRN FL PENINSULA BY THIS
EVENING. A FEW MID LVL IMPULSES ARE FORECAST TO MOVE TWD E CENTRAL
FL INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS LOW LVL FLOW VEERS TO S THIS MORNING
AND SW THIS AFTERNOON. SHOULD SEE ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER
ACROSS THE ERN PORTION OF THE STATE TO GET SOME MORNING SUN TO WORK
ON INCREASINGLY MOIST AIRMASS WITH PWATS PROGGED TO INCREASE TO 2.2
TO 2.4 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON. APPEARS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL BE
MAXIMIZED IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
MOVES SLOWLY INLAND AND MEETS UP WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE
INTERIOR AND MOVING TOWARD THE COAST. 4KM WRF FOR SPC INDICATES HIGH
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING OVER E CENTRAL FL BY LATE
AFTERNOON AND MOVING TOWARD THE EAST COAST AND INTO THE NEAR SHORE
ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING. WITH THE EXTREMELY DEEP
MOISTURE AND DYNAMIC SUPPORT EXPECT SHOWERS WITH INTENSE RAINFALL
RATES WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO 2-4 INCHES WITH AREAS THAT SEE
REPEATED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. WILL HOIST A
FLOOD WATCH FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY WITH THE THREAT FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN CONTINUING AGAIN TOMORROW AS THE FRONT DROPS
INTO CENTRAL FL TRAILING FROM THE LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFFSHORE. WILL
HAVE RAIN CHANCES AROUND 70 PERCENT MOST OF THE AREA AND THAT MAY BE
CONSERVATIVE. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL HAVE FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS ABOVE 40 MPH AS THEY MOVE TOWARD THE
EAST COAST. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S NORTH TO NEAR 90 AROUND
LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

TONIGHT...EXPECT ONGOING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ERN HALF
OF E CENTRAL FL INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE PUSHING INTO THE ATLC
BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. DEEP MOISTURE IN THE PREFRONTAL AIRMASS AND
ANOTHER MID LVL IMPULSE IN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOWS MAINLY IN
THE LOWER 70S WITH RAIN COOLED AIR.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL
FLORIDA EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD.
AMPLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE...MODEST INSTABILITY AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY
ALOFT WILL PROVIDE ABOVE NORMAL RAIN CHANCES (60 PERCENT) AGAIN ON
THIS DAY. THE CONCERN FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING CONTINUES. WESTERLY
STEERING FLOW WILL TAKE SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE PENINSULA AND OFF
OF THE EAST COAST AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

WED-THU...FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE
OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING INTO THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA. A LIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE PRESENT OVER THE AREA WITH AN EAST COAST
SEA BREEZE FORECAST EACH DAY. WESTERLY FLOW ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL
REMAIN DOMINANT EACH DAY...THOUGH STEERING FLOW WINDS WILL BE WEAKER
THAN ON TUE. WILL GO WITH FAIRLY HIGH POPS AGAIN ON WED (40-50
PERCENT) AND 30 TO 40 PERCENT FOR THU. AGAIN...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH NUISANCE FLOODING POSSIBLE ACROSS
AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS.

FRI-SUN...GENERAL TROUGHINESS ALOFT WILL ENCOMPASS THE EASTERN THIRD
OF THE CONUS THROUGH THIS TIME. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DROP
INTO THE NORTH FLORIDA PENINSULA FRI OVERNIGHT...THEN INTO CENTRAL
FLORIDA DURING THE DAY ON SAT. BY SUNDAY IT WILL MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHERN PENINSULA. DECENT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL AGAIN POOL ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THIS LATEST WEATHER SYSTEM. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A
COOLER/DRYER AIRMASS BEHIND THIS FRONT. FOR NOW WILL KEEP 40 PERCENT
POPS IN FOR FRI...50 PERCENT FOR SAT AND GRADUALLY DRY THINGS OUT
SOUTH OF A KMLB-KISM LINE DURING THE DAY ON SUN AS THE FRONT PRESSES
SOUTHWARD.



&&

.AVIATION...
TEMPO IFR SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE EVENING THEN PREVAILING
MVFR OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPO IFR BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...

CURRENT-TONIGHT...BUOYS RECORDING SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10
KNOTS AND 5 TO 10 KNOTS AND 2 TO 3 FOOT SEAS OUT TO 20NM AND TO 4
FEET AT BUOY 010 120NM EAST OF NEW SMYRNA BEACH. WINDS SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST AS A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE NORTH CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO BEGINS MOVING TO THE EAST.

TUES...SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS AND 2 T 3 FOOT SEAS NEARSHORE
AND TO 4 FEET WELL OFFSHORE AS THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVE
EAST OVER NORTH FLORIDA AND INTO ATLANTIC OFF NORTHEAST FLORIDA
GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA.


PREVIOUS MARINE DISCUSSION
WED-FRI...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY GRADUALLY MOVES SOUTH OF THE WATERS
ON WED WITH A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA.
EXPECT AN EAST COAST SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INLAND EACH
AFTERNOON. THE OFFSHORE STEERING FLOW WILL BE WEAKER WED-FRI...BUT
AMPLE MOISTURE WILL KEEP CHANCE WORDING FOR SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE
FORECAST. SEAS EXPECTED 2-3 FT NEAR SHORE TO 3-4 OFFSHORE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HEAVY RAINS NORTH OF ORLANDO WILL CREATE RISING WATER LEVELS ALONG
THE SAINT JOHNS FROM SANFORD NORTH TO LAKE GEORGE. THE SAINT JOHNS
AT ASTOR NORTH OF DELAND WAS AROUND 2.9 FEET WHICH WAS ABOUT 0.1
FOOT ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. MORE RAIN TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WILL
CERTAINLY RAISE LEVELS HIGHER.

ALL OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA IS IN A FLOOD WATCH WITH LOCATIONS NORTH
OF SANFORD IN SHORT TERM WARNING STATUS DEPENDING ON LOCAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  72  85  72  87 /  60  60  30  50
MCO  73  89  72  90 /  60  70  30  50
MLB  74  88  72  88 /  60  70  30  40
VRB  74  90  71  89 /  60  70  30  40
LEE  73  88  73  90 /  60  60  30  50
SFB  74  88  73  90 /  60  70  30  50
ORL  74  89  74  90 /  60  70  30  50
FPR  73  89  72  89 /  50  70  30  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL VOLUSIA-INDIAN
     RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA-MARTIN-NORTHERN BREVARD-NORTHERN LAKE-
     OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-
     SOUTHERN LAKE-ST. LUCIE.

AM...NONE.
&&

$$

IMPACT WX...CRISTALDI
FORECASTS...WIMMER
PUBLIC/HYDRO...ULRICH/CARTWIGHT





000
FXUS62 KMLB 291948
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
348 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...

...FLOOD WATCH WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR EAST CENTRAL FL THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TUESDAY EVENING...
...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND TUESDAY...

CURRENT-TONIGHT...A STATIONARY BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AND OFF GEORGIA SOUTH
CAROLINA WILL HAVE WEAK LOWS MOVE WEST TO EAST ALONG IT AS MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MOVE OVER NORTH FLORIDA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE STILL AROUND 2 TO 2.25 INCHES AND WILL
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. MANY AREAS ALREADY HAVING RECEIVED 1 TO
2 INCHES OF RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND SHOULD GET MORE RAIN HEAVY
LATE AFTERNOON IN TO THE EVENING. THIS WILL LEAD TO LOCALIZED
FLOODING DUE TO ACCUMULATING RAIN WATER. RAIN SHOULD SLACKEN LATE
EVENING...OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING THEN INCREASING COVERAGE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS MORE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE WEST TO EAST
THROUGH NORTH AND CENTRAL FLORIDA.

TUESDAY...A SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO HAVE DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT
MONDAY WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AND INTO THE ATLANTIC OFF
NORTHEAST FLORIDA BY TUESDAY EVENING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
STILL WELL ABOVE THEIR AVERAGE AT 2 TO 2.25 INCHES COMBINED WITH
RIPPLES OF MID LEVEL ENERGY MOVING WEST TO EAST OVER NORTH AND
CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THAT WILL AGGRAVATE
ALREADY WATER LOGGED AREAS ORLANDO NORTH.

WEDNESDAY...THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST
TO BE WELL EAST OF FLORIDA...GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA. HOWEVER...A
TRAILING COLD/COOL FRONT WILL STRETCH FROM THE LOW ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA. THE MID LEVEL FLOW FLATTENS OUT IN A WEST TO EAST PATTERN
AND WEAK IMPULSES OF MID LEVEL ENERGY/VORTICITY MOVE OVER CENTRAL
FLORIDA. PRECIPITABLE WATERS FORECAST TO REMAIN AROUND 2 INCHES AND
WITH MID LEVEL PARCELS OF ENERGY MOVING OVER/THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA
RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 50 PERCENT.

PREVIOUS ZONES DISCUSSION

TODAY...STRONG S/W ALOFT NEAR THE NRN GULF COAST WILL MOVE EASTWARD
TODAY AND INCREASE UPPER DIVERGENCE OVER E CENTRAL FL AS AN AREA OF
SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND MOVES TWD THE NRN FL PENINSULA BY THIS
EVENING. A FEW MID LVL IMPULSES ARE FORECAST TO MOVE TWD E CENTRAL
FL INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS LOW LVL FLOW VEERS TO S THIS MORNING
AND SW THIS AFTERNOON. SHOULD SEE ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER
ACROSS THE ERN PORTION OF THE STATE TO GET SOME MORNING SUN TO WORK
ON INCREASINGLY MOIST AIRMASS WITH PWATS PROGGED TO INCREASE TO 2.2
TO 2.4 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON. APPEARS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL BE
MAXIMIZED IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
MOVES SLOWLY INLAND AND MEETS UP WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE
INTERIOR AND MOVING TOWARD THE COAST. 4KM WRF FOR SPC INDICATES HIGH
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING OVER E CENTRAL FL BY LATE
AFTERNOON AND MOVING TOWARD THE EAST COAST AND INTO THE NEAR SHORE
ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING. WITH THE EXTREMELY DEEP
MOISTURE AND DYNAMIC SUPPORT EXPECT SHOWERS WITH INTENSE RAINFALL
RATES WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO 2-4 INCHES WITH AREAS THAT SEE
REPEATED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. WILL HOIST A
FLOOD WATCH FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY WITH THE THREAT FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN CONTINUING AGAIN TOMORROW AS THE FRONT DROPS
INTO CENTRAL FL TRAILING FROM THE LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFFSHORE. WILL
HAVE RAIN CHANCES AROUND 70 PERCENT MOST OF THE AREA AND THAT MAY BE
CONSERVATIVE. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL HAVE FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS ABOVE 40 MPH AS THEY MOVE TOWARD THE
EAST COAST. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S NORTH TO NEAR 90 AROUND
LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

TONIGHT...EXPECT ONGOING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ERN HALF
OF E CENTRAL FL INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE PUSHING INTO THE ATLC
BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. DEEP MOISTURE IN THE PREFRONTAL AIRMASS AND
ANOTHER MID LVL IMPULSE IN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOWS MAINLY IN
THE LOWER 70S WITH RAIN COOLED AIR.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL
FLORIDA EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD.
AMPLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE...MODEST INSTABILITY AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY
ALOFT WILL PROVIDE ABOVE NORMAL RAIN CHANCES (60 PERCENT) AGAIN ON
THIS DAY. THE CONCERN FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING CONTINUES. WESTERLY
STEERING FLOW WILL TAKE SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE PENINSULA AND OFF
OF THE EAST COAST AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

WED-THU...FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE
OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING INTO THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA. A LIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE PRESENT OVER THE AREA WITH AN EAST COAST
SEA BREEZE FORECAST EACH DAY. WESTERLY FLOW ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL
REMAIN DOMINANT EACH DAY...THOUGH STEERING FLOW WINDS WILL BE WEAKER
THAN ON TUE. WILL GO WITH FAIRLY HIGH POPS AGAIN ON WED (40-50
PERCENT) AND 30 TO 40 PERCENT FOR THU. AGAIN...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH NUISANCE FLOODING POSSIBLE ACROSS
AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS.

FRI-SUN...GENERAL TROUGHINESS ALOFT WILL ENCOMPASS THE EASTERN THIRD
OF THE CONUS THROUGH THIS TIME. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DROP
INTO THE NORTH FLORIDA PENINSULA FRI OVERNIGHT...THEN INTO CENTRAL
FLORIDA DURING THE DAY ON SAT. BY SUNDAY IT WILL MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHERN PENINSULA. DECENT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL AGAIN POOL ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THIS LATEST WEATHER SYSTEM. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A
COOLER/DRYER AIRMASS BEHIND THIS FRONT. FOR NOW WILL KEEP 40 PERCENT
POPS IN FOR FRI...50 PERCENT FOR SAT AND GRADUALLY DRY THINGS OUT
SOUTH OF A KMLB-KISM LINE DURING THE DAY ON SUN AS THE FRONT PRESSES
SOUTHWARD.



&&

.AVIATION...
TEMPO IFR SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE EVENING THEN PREVAILING
MVFR OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPO IFR BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...

CURRENT-TONIGHT...BUOYS RECORDING SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10
KNOTS AND 5 TO 10 KNOTS AND 2 TO 3 FOOT SEAS OUT TO 20NM AND TO 4
FEET AT BUOY 010 120NM EAST OF NEW SMYRNA BEACH. WINDS SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST AS A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE NORTH CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO BEGINS MOVING TO THE EAST.

TUES...SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS AND 2 T 3 FOOT SEAS NEARSHORE
AND TO 4 FEET WELL OFFSHORE AS THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVE
EAST OVER NORTH FLORIDA AND INTO ATLANTIC OFF NORTHEAST FLORIDA
GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA.


PREVIOUS MARINE DISCUSSION
WED-FRI...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY GRADUALLY MOVES SOUTH OF THE WATERS
ON WED WITH A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA.
EXPECT AN EAST COAST SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INLAND EACH
AFTERNOON. THE OFFSHORE STEERING FLOW WILL BE WEAKER WED-FRI...BUT
AMPLE MOISTURE WILL KEEP CHANCE WORDING FOR SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE
FORECAST. SEAS EXPECTED 2-3 FT NEAR SHORE TO 3-4 OFFSHORE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HEAVY RAINS NORTH OF ORLANDO WILL CREATE RISING WATER LEVELS ALONG
THE SAINT JOHNS FROM SANFORD NORTH TO LAKE GEORGE. THE SAINT JOHNS
AT ASTOR NORTH OF DELAND WAS AROUND 2.9 FEET WHICH WAS ABOUT 0.1
FOOT ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. MORE RAIN TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WILL
CERTAINLY RAISE LEVELS HIGHER.

ALL OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA IS IN A FLOOD WATCH WITH LOCATIONS NORTH
OF SANFORD IN SHORT TERM WARNING STATUS DEPENDING ON LOCAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  72  85  72  87 /  60  60  30  50
MCO  73  89  72  90 /  60  70  30  50
MLB  74  88  72  88 /  60  70  30  40
VRB  74  90  71  89 /  60  70  30  40
LEE  73  88  73  90 /  60  60  30  50
SFB  74  88  73  90 /  60  70  30  50
ORL  74  89  74  90 /  60  70  30  50
FPR  73  89  72  89 /  50  70  30  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL VOLUSIA-INDIAN
     RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA-MARTIN-NORTHERN BREVARD-NORTHERN LAKE-
     OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-
     SOUTHERN LAKE-ST. LUCIE.

AM...NONE.
&&

$$

IMPACT WX...CRISTALDI
FORECASTS...WIMMER
PUBLIC/HYDRO...ULRICH/CARTWIGHT






000
FXUS62 KMLB 291349
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
950 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...

...FLOOD WATCH WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR EAST CENTRAL FL THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TUESDAY EVENING...
...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY...

CURRENT-THIS AFTERNOON....STATIONARY BOUNDARY STILL PARKED OVER
NORTHERN FLORIDA. THE MORNING UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS FOR CENTRAL AND
NORTH FLORIDA SHOWED A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE WITH ALL FOUR/4 SITES
RECORDING AT LEAST 2.25 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER. SHORT WAVE
MOVING OVERHEAD DURING THE DAY WILL ENHANCE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE.

FORECAST POP OF 70 PERCENT ALONG WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS A GOOD FORECAST.


PREVIOUS ZONES DISCUSSION

TODAY...STRONG S/W ALOFT NEAR THE NRN GULF COAST WILL MOVE EASTWARD
TODAY AND INCREASE UPPER DIVERGENCE OVER E CENTRAL FL AS AN AREA OF
SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND MOVES TWD THE NRN FL PENINSULA BY THIS
EVENING. A FEW MID LVL IMPULSES ARE FORECAST TO MOVE TWD E CENTRAL
FL INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS LOW LVL FLOW VEERS TO S THIS MORNING
AND SW THIS AFTERNOON. SHOULD SEE ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER
ACROSS THE ERN PORTION OF THE STATE TO GET SOME MORNING SUN TO WORK
ON INCREASINGLY MOIST AIRMASS WITH PWATS PROGGED TO INCREASE TO 2.2
TO 2.4 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON. APPEARS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL BE
MAXIMIZED IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
MOVES SLOWLY INLAND AND MEETS UP WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE
INTERIOR AND MOVING TOWARD THE COAST. 4KM WRF FOR SPC INDICATES HIGH
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING OVER E CENTRAL FL BY LATE
AFTERNOON AND MOVING TOWARD THE EAST COAST AND INTO THE NEAR SHORE
ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING. WITH THE EXTREMELY DEEP
MOISTURE AND DYNAMIC SUPPORT EXPECT SHOWERS WITH INTENSE RAINFALL
RATES WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO 2-4 INCHES WITH AREAS THAT SEE
REPEATED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. WILL HOIST A
FLOOD WATCH FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY WITH THE THREAT FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN CONTINUING AGAIN TOMORROW AS THE FRONT DROPS
INTO CENTRAL FL TRAILING FROM THE LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFFSHORE. WILL
HAVE RAIN CHANCES AROUND 70 PERCENT MOST OF THE AREA AND THAT MAY BE
CONSERVATIVE. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL HAVE FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS ABOVE 40 MPH AS THEY MOVE TOWARD THE
EAST COAST. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S NORTH TO NEAR 90 AROUND
LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

TONIGHT...EXPECT ONGOING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ERN HALF
OF E CENTRAL FL INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE PUSHING INTO THE ATLC
BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. DEEP MOISTURE IN THE PREFRONTAL AIRMASS AND
ANOTHER MID LVL IMPULSE IN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOWS MAINLY IN
THE LOWER 70S WITH RAIN COOLED AIR.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL
FLORIDA EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD.
AMPLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE...MODEST INSTABILITY AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY
ALOFT WILL PROVIDE ABOVE NORMAL RAIN CHANCES (60 PERCENT) AGAIN ON
THIS DAY. THE CONCERN FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING CONTINUES. WESTERLY
STEERING FLOW WILL TAKE SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE PENINSULA AND OFF
OF THE EAST COAST AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

WED-THU...FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE
OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING INTO THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA. A LIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE PRESENT OVER THE AREA WITH AN EAST COAST
SEA BREEZE FORECAST EACH DAY. WESTERLY FLOW ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL
REMAIN DOMINANT EACH DAY...THOUGH STEERING FLOW WINDS WILL BE WEAKER
THAN ON TUE. WILL GO WITH FAIRLY HIGH POPS AGAIN ON WED (40-50
PERCENT) AND 30 TO 40 PERCENT FOR THU. AGAIN...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH NUISANCE FLOODING POSSIBLE ACROSS
AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS.

FRI-SUN...GENERAL TROUGHINESS ALOFT WILL ENCOMPASS THE EASTERN THIRD
OF THE CONUS THROUGH THIS TIME. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DROP
INTO THE NORTH FLORIDA PENINSULA FRI OVERNIGHT...THEN INTO CENTRAL
FLORIDA DURING THE DAY ON SAT. BY SUNDAY IT WILL MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHERN PENINSULA. DECENT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL AGAIN POOL ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THIS LATEST WEATHER SYSTEM. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A
COOLER/DRYER AIRMASS BEHIND THIS FRONT. FOR NOW WILL KEEP 40 PERCENT
POPS IN FOR FRI...50 PERCENT FOR SAT AND GRADUALLY DRY THINGS OUT
SOUTH OF A KMLB-KISM LINE DURING THE DAY ON SUN AS THE FRONT PRESSES
SOUTHWARD.



&&

.AVIATION...
SCT-NMRS SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED ACROSS E CENTRAL FL THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF A S/W TROUGH ALOFT MOVING TWD N FL. HAVE ADDED TEMPO TSRA THIS
AFTERNOON ALL TERMINALS AND EXPECT A CHC OF SHRA INTO LATE EVENING.
IFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED WITH VSBYS BLO 3 MILES WITH
TSRA IN THE MID TO LATE AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...

CURRENT-THIS AFTERNOON...BUOYS RECORDING SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10
KNOTS AND 2 TO 3 FOOT SEAS OUT TO 20NM AND TO 4 FEET AT BUOY 010
120NM EAST OF NEW SMYRNA BEACH.

WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS
DEVELOPING IN THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF MOVES EAST.

CURRENT FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON LOOKS GOOD. NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES FOR THE MID MORNING UPDATE.

PREVIOUS MARINE DISCUSSION

SSE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME S-SW THIS AFTERNOON AND SW
TONIGHT. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2-3 FT NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND 3-4
FT OFFSHORE. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL APPROACH FROM THE
INTRACOASTAL AND NEAR SHORE WATERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. STORM GUSTS OVER 34 KNOTS WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARD.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...INITIAL WSW WINDS WILL VEER TO NW DURING THE DAY
SURROUNDING DEVELOPING WEAK LOW PRESSURE NORTHEAST OF THE WATERS AS
WELL AS A WEAK FRONT SLIDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA. INITIAL WINDS
SPEEDS OF 14-17 KTS OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC WILL DECREASE TO 10-15
KTS DURING THE DAY AND 8-12 KTS OVERNIGHT TUE. DEEP MOISTURE OVER
THE AREA WILL PROVIDE FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH ACTIVITY MOVING OFF OF
THE COAST AT 15 TO 20 KTS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS FORECAST AND
STORMS MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY WINDS. SEAS 1 TO 3 FEET NEAR
SHORE AND 2 TO 4 FEET WELL OFFSHORE.

WED-FRI...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY GRADUALLY MOVES SOUTH OF THE WATERS
ON WED WITH A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA.
EXPECT AN EAST COAST SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INLAND EACH
AFTERNOON. THE OFFSHORE STEERING FLOW WILL BE WEAKER WED-FRI...BUT
AMPLE MOISTURE WILL KEEP CHANCE WORDING FOR SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE
FORECAST. SEAS EXPECTED 2-3 FT NEAR SHORE TO 3-4 OFFSHORE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...EARLY MORNING RIVER LEVELS ALONG THE ST JOHNS AT ASTOR
HAVE BEEN HOVERING AROUND 2.8 FT WHICH IS FLOOD STAGE. THE CURRENT
FORECAST IS FOR THE RIVER LEVEL TO REMAIN AROUND 2.8 FT THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS BUT MAY CREEP A BIT HIGHER DEPENDING ON FUTURE RAINFALL
THROUGH MID WEEK. AREA RIVERS AND CREEKS ARE RUNNING AT FAIRLY HIGH
LEVELS WITH THE HEAVY RAINS OVER THE PAST WEEK AND A HALF. THERE
WILL BE A CONCERN FOR RISES ON FAST RESPONDING SMALLER RIVERS AND
CREEKS LATER TODAY AND TUESDAY WITH ANY HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH MAY
LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING. AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN HEAVY RAIN OVER THE
PAST WEEK OR SO INCLUDING DAYTONA BEACH/NEW SMYRNA BEACH/PORTIONS OF
ORANGE/SEMINOLE/BREVARD AND INDIAN RIVER COUNTIES WILL BE ESPECIALLY
SUSCEPTIBLE TO ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  87  73  86  73 /  70  70  60  30
MCO  89  73  89  72 /  70  60  60  30
MLB  88  74  88  73 /  70  60  60  30
VRB  88  73  90  73 /  70  60  60  30
LEE  88  73  88  72 /  70  50  60  30
SFB  88  74  89  73 /  70  60  60  30
ORL  89  74  89  74 /  70  60  60  30
FPR  89  73  90  72 /  70  60  60  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
     COASTAL VOLUSIA-INDIAN RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA-MARTIN-NORTHERN
     BREVARD-NORTHERN LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-
     SOUTHERN BREVARD-SOUTHERN LAKE-ST. LUCIE.

AM...NONE.
&&

$$

IMPACT WX......CRISTALDI
FORECASTS......WIMMER
PUBLIC/HYDRO...ULRICH







000
FXUS62 KMLB 291349
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
950 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...

...FLOOD WATCH WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR EAST CENTRAL FL THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TUESDAY EVENING...
...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY...

CURRENT-THIS AFTERNOON....STATIONARY BOUNDARY STILL PARKED OVER
NORTHERN FLORIDA. THE MORNING UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS FOR CENTRAL AND
NORTH FLORIDA SHOWED A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE WITH ALL FOUR/4 SITES
RECORDING AT LEAST 2.25 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER. SHORT WAVE
MOVING OVERHEAD DURING THE DAY WILL ENHANCE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE.

FORECAST POP OF 70 PERCENT ALONG WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS A GOOD FORECAST.


PREVIOUS ZONES DISCUSSION

TODAY...STRONG S/W ALOFT NEAR THE NRN GULF COAST WILL MOVE EASTWARD
TODAY AND INCREASE UPPER DIVERGENCE OVER E CENTRAL FL AS AN AREA OF
SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND MOVES TWD THE NRN FL PENINSULA BY THIS
EVENING. A FEW MID LVL IMPULSES ARE FORECAST TO MOVE TWD E CENTRAL
FL INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS LOW LVL FLOW VEERS TO S THIS MORNING
AND SW THIS AFTERNOON. SHOULD SEE ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER
ACROSS THE ERN PORTION OF THE STATE TO GET SOME MORNING SUN TO WORK
ON INCREASINGLY MOIST AIRMASS WITH PWATS PROGGED TO INCREASE TO 2.2
TO 2.4 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON. APPEARS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL BE
MAXIMIZED IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
MOVES SLOWLY INLAND AND MEETS UP WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE
INTERIOR AND MOVING TOWARD THE COAST. 4KM WRF FOR SPC INDICATES HIGH
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING OVER E CENTRAL FL BY LATE
AFTERNOON AND MOVING TOWARD THE EAST COAST AND INTO THE NEAR SHORE
ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING. WITH THE EXTREMELY DEEP
MOISTURE AND DYNAMIC SUPPORT EXPECT SHOWERS WITH INTENSE RAINFALL
RATES WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO 2-4 INCHES WITH AREAS THAT SEE
REPEATED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. WILL HOIST A
FLOOD WATCH FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY WITH THE THREAT FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN CONTINUING AGAIN TOMORROW AS THE FRONT DROPS
INTO CENTRAL FL TRAILING FROM THE LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFFSHORE. WILL
HAVE RAIN CHANCES AROUND 70 PERCENT MOST OF THE AREA AND THAT MAY BE
CONSERVATIVE. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL HAVE FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS ABOVE 40 MPH AS THEY MOVE TOWARD THE
EAST COAST. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S NORTH TO NEAR 90 AROUND
LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

TONIGHT...EXPECT ONGOING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ERN HALF
OF E CENTRAL FL INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE PUSHING INTO THE ATLC
BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. DEEP MOISTURE IN THE PREFRONTAL AIRMASS AND
ANOTHER MID LVL IMPULSE IN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOWS MAINLY IN
THE LOWER 70S WITH RAIN COOLED AIR.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL
FLORIDA EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD.
AMPLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE...MODEST INSTABILITY AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY
ALOFT WILL PROVIDE ABOVE NORMAL RAIN CHANCES (60 PERCENT) AGAIN ON
THIS DAY. THE CONCERN FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING CONTINUES. WESTERLY
STEERING FLOW WILL TAKE SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE PENINSULA AND OFF
OF THE EAST COAST AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

WED-THU...FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE
OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING INTO THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA. A LIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE PRESENT OVER THE AREA WITH AN EAST COAST
SEA BREEZE FORECAST EACH DAY. WESTERLY FLOW ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL
REMAIN DOMINANT EACH DAY...THOUGH STEERING FLOW WINDS WILL BE WEAKER
THAN ON TUE. WILL GO WITH FAIRLY HIGH POPS AGAIN ON WED (40-50
PERCENT) AND 30 TO 40 PERCENT FOR THU. AGAIN...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH NUISANCE FLOODING POSSIBLE ACROSS
AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS.

FRI-SUN...GENERAL TROUGHINESS ALOFT WILL ENCOMPASS THE EASTERN THIRD
OF THE CONUS THROUGH THIS TIME. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DROP
INTO THE NORTH FLORIDA PENINSULA FRI OVERNIGHT...THEN INTO CENTRAL
FLORIDA DURING THE DAY ON SAT. BY SUNDAY IT WILL MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHERN PENINSULA. DECENT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL AGAIN POOL ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THIS LATEST WEATHER SYSTEM. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A
COOLER/DRYER AIRMASS BEHIND THIS FRONT. FOR NOW WILL KEEP 40 PERCENT
POPS IN FOR FRI...50 PERCENT FOR SAT AND GRADUALLY DRY THINGS OUT
SOUTH OF A KMLB-KISM LINE DURING THE DAY ON SUN AS THE FRONT PRESSES
SOUTHWARD.



&&

.AVIATION...
SCT-NMRS SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED ACROSS E CENTRAL FL THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF A S/W TROUGH ALOFT MOVING TWD N FL. HAVE ADDED TEMPO TSRA THIS
AFTERNOON ALL TERMINALS AND EXPECT A CHC OF SHRA INTO LATE EVENING.
IFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED WITH VSBYS BLO 3 MILES WITH
TSRA IN THE MID TO LATE AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...

CURRENT-THIS AFTERNOON...BUOYS RECORDING SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10
KNOTS AND 2 TO 3 FOOT SEAS OUT TO 20NM AND TO 4 FEET AT BUOY 010
120NM EAST OF NEW SMYRNA BEACH.

WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS
DEVELOPING IN THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF MOVES EAST.

CURRENT FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON LOOKS GOOD. NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES FOR THE MID MORNING UPDATE.

PREVIOUS MARINE DISCUSSION

SSE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME S-SW THIS AFTERNOON AND SW
TONIGHT. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2-3 FT NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND 3-4
FT OFFSHORE. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL APPROACH FROM THE
INTRACOASTAL AND NEAR SHORE WATERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. STORM GUSTS OVER 34 KNOTS WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARD.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...INITIAL WSW WINDS WILL VEER TO NW DURING THE DAY
SURROUNDING DEVELOPING WEAK LOW PRESSURE NORTHEAST OF THE WATERS AS
WELL AS A WEAK FRONT SLIDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA. INITIAL WINDS
SPEEDS OF 14-17 KTS OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC WILL DECREASE TO 10-15
KTS DURING THE DAY AND 8-12 KTS OVERNIGHT TUE. DEEP MOISTURE OVER
THE AREA WILL PROVIDE FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH ACTIVITY MOVING OFF OF
THE COAST AT 15 TO 20 KTS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS FORECAST AND
STORMS MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY WINDS. SEAS 1 TO 3 FEET NEAR
SHORE AND 2 TO 4 FEET WELL OFFSHORE.

WED-FRI...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY GRADUALLY MOVES SOUTH OF THE WATERS
ON WED WITH A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA.
EXPECT AN EAST COAST SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INLAND EACH
AFTERNOON. THE OFFSHORE STEERING FLOW WILL BE WEAKER WED-FRI...BUT
AMPLE MOISTURE WILL KEEP CHANCE WORDING FOR SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE
FORECAST. SEAS EXPECTED 2-3 FT NEAR SHORE TO 3-4 OFFSHORE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...EARLY MORNING RIVER LEVELS ALONG THE ST JOHNS AT ASTOR
HAVE BEEN HOVERING AROUND 2.8 FT WHICH IS FLOOD STAGE. THE CURRENT
FORECAST IS FOR THE RIVER LEVEL TO REMAIN AROUND 2.8 FT THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS BUT MAY CREEP A BIT HIGHER DEPENDING ON FUTURE RAINFALL
THROUGH MID WEEK. AREA RIVERS AND CREEKS ARE RUNNING AT FAIRLY HIGH
LEVELS WITH THE HEAVY RAINS OVER THE PAST WEEK AND A HALF. THERE
WILL BE A CONCERN FOR RISES ON FAST RESPONDING SMALLER RIVERS AND
CREEKS LATER TODAY AND TUESDAY WITH ANY HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH MAY
LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING. AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN HEAVY RAIN OVER THE
PAST WEEK OR SO INCLUDING DAYTONA BEACH/NEW SMYRNA BEACH/PORTIONS OF
ORANGE/SEMINOLE/BREVARD AND INDIAN RIVER COUNTIES WILL BE ESPECIALLY
SUSCEPTIBLE TO ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  87  73  86  73 /  70  70  60  30
MCO  89  73  89  72 /  70  60  60  30
MLB  88  74  88  73 /  70  60  60  30
VRB  88  73  90  73 /  70  60  60  30
LEE  88  73  88  72 /  70  50  60  30
SFB  88  74  89  73 /  70  60  60  30
ORL  89  74  89  74 /  70  60  60  30
FPR  89  73  90  72 /  70  60  60  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
     COASTAL VOLUSIA-INDIAN RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA-MARTIN-NORTHERN
     BREVARD-NORTHERN LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-
     SOUTHERN BREVARD-SOUTHERN LAKE-ST. LUCIE.

AM...NONE.
&&

$$

IMPACT WX......CRISTALDI
FORECASTS......WIMMER
PUBLIC/HYDRO...ULRICH






000
FXUS62 KMLB 290741
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
340 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...

...FLOOD WATCH WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR EAST CENTRAL FL THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TUESDAY EVENING...
...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY...

TODAY...STRONG S/W ALOFT NEAR THE NRN GULF COAST WILL MOVE EASTWARD
TODAY AND INCREASE UPPER DIVERGENCE OVER E CENTRAL FL AS AN AREA OF
SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND MOVES TWD THE NRN FL PENINSULA BY THIS
EVENING. A FEW MID LVL IMPULSES ARE FORECAST TO MOVE TWD E CENTRAL
FL INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS LOW LVL FLOW VEERS TO S THIS MORNING
AND SW THIS AFTERNOON. SHOULD SEE ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER
ACROSS THE ERN PORTION OF THE STATE TO GET SOME MORNING SUN TO WORK
ON INCREASINGLY MOIST AIRMASS WITH PWATS PROGGED TO INCREASE TO 2.2
TO 2.4 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON. APPEARS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL BE
MAXIMIZED IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
MOVES SLOWLY INLAND AND MEETS UP WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE
INTERIOR AND MOVING TOWARD THE COAST. 4KM WRF FOR SPC INDICATES HIGH
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING OVER E CENTRAL FL BY LATE
AFTERNOON AND MOVING TOWARD THE EAST COAST AND INTO THE NEAR SHORE
ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING. WITH THE EXTREMELY DEEP
MOISTURE AND DYNAMIC SUPPORT EXPECT SHOWERS WITH INTENSE RAINFALL
RATES WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO 2-4 INCHES WITH AREAS THAT SEE
REPEATED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. WILL HOIST A
FLOOD WATCH FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY WITH THE THREAT FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN CONTINUING AGAIN TOMORROW AS THE FRONT DROPS
INTO CENTRAL FL TRAILING FROM THE LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFFSHORE. WILL
HAVE RAIN CHANCES AROUND 70 PERCENT MOST OF THE AREA AND THAT MAY BE
CONSERVATIVE. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL HAVE FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS ABOVE 40 MPH AS THEY MOVE TOWARD THE
EAST COAST. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S NORTH TO NEAR 90 AROUND
LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

TONIGHT...EXPECT ONGOING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ERN HALF
OF E CENTRAL FL INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE PUSHING INTO THE ATLC
BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. DEEP MOISTURE IN THE PREFRONTAL AIRMASS AND
ANOTHER MID LVL IMPULSE IN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOWS MAINLY IN
THE LOWER 70S WITH RAIN COOLED AIR.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL
FLORIDA EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD.
AMPLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE...MODEST INSTABILITY AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY
ALOFT WILL PROVIDE ABOVE NORMAL RAIN CHANCES (60 PERCENT) AGAIN ON
THIS DAY. THE CONCERN FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING CONTINUES. WESTERLY
STEERING FLOW WILL TAKE SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE PENINSULA AND OFF
OF THE EAST COAST AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

WED-THU...FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE
OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING INTO THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA. A LIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE PRESENT OVER THE AREA WITH AN EAST COAST
SEA BREEZE FORECAST EACH DAY. WESTERLY FLOW ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL
REMAIN DOMINANT EACH DAY...THOUGH STEERING FLOW WINDS WILL BE WEAKER
THAN ON TUE. WILL GO WITH FAIRLY HIGH POPS AGAIN ON WED (40-50
PERCENT) AND 30 TO 40 PERCENT FOR THU. AGAIN...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH NUISANCE FLOODING POSSIBLE ACROSS
AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS.

FRI-SUN...GENERAL TROUGHINESS ALOFT WILL ENCOMPASS THE EASTERN THIRD
OF THE CONUS THROUGH THIS TIME. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DROP
INTO THE NORTH FLORIDA PENINSULA FRI OVERNIGHT...THEN INTO CENTRAL
FLORIDA DURING THE DAY ON SAT. BY SUNDAY IT WILL MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHERN PENINSULA. DECENT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL AGAIN POOL ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THIS LATEST WEATHER SYSTEM. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A
COOLER/DRYER AIRMASS BEHIND THIS FRONT. FOR NOW WILL KEEP 40 PERCENT
POPS IN FOR FRI...50 PERCENT FOR SAT AND GRADUALLY DRY THINGS OUT
SOUTH OF A KMLB-KISM LINE DURING THE DAY ON SUN AS THE FRONT PRESSES
SOUTHWARD.



&&

.AVIATION...
SCT-NMRS SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED ACROSS E CENTRAL FL THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF A S/W TROUGH ALOFT MOVING TWD N FL. HAVE ADDED TEMPO TSRA THIS
AFTERNOON ALL TERMINALS AND EXPECT A CHC OF SHRA INTO LATE EVENING.
IFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED WITH VSBYS BLO 3 MILES WITH
TSRA IN THE MID TO LATE AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...

SSE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME S-SW THIS AFTERNOON AND SW
TONIGHT. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2-3 FT NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND 3-4
FT OFFSHORE. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL APPROACH FROM THE
INTRACOASTAL AND NEAR SHORE WATERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. STORM GUSTS OVER 34 KNOTS WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARD.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...INITIAL WSW WINDS WILL VEER TO NW DURING THE DAY
SURROUNDING DEVELOPING WEAK LOW PRESSURE NORTHEAST OF THE WATERS AS
WELL AS A WEAK FRONT SLIDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA. INITIAL WINDS
SPEEDS OF 14-17 KTS OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC WILL DECREASE TO 10-15
KTS DURING THE DAY AND 8-12 KTS OVERNIGHT TUE. DEEP MOISTURE OVER
THE AREA WILL PROVIDE FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH ACTIVITY MOVING OFF OF
THE COAST AT 15 TO 20 KTS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS FORECAST AND
STORMS MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY WINDS. SEAS 1 TO 3 FEET NEAR
SHORE AND 2 TO 4 FEET WELL OFFSHORE.

WED-FRI...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY GRADUALLY MOVES SOUTH OF THE WATERS
ON WED WITH A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA.
EXPECT AN EAST COAST SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INLAND EACH
AFTERNOON. THE OFFSHORE STEERING FLOW WILL BE WEAKER WED-FRI...BUT
AMPLE MOISTURE WILL KEEP CHANCE WORDING FOR SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE
FORECAST. SEAS EXPECTED 2-3 FT NEAR SHORE TO 3-4 OFFSHORE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...EARLY MORNING RIVER LEVELS ALONG THE ST JOHNS AT ASTOR
HAVE BEEN HOVERING AROUND 2.8 FT WHICH IS FLOOD STAGE. THE CURRENT
FORECAST IS FOR THE RIVER LEVEL TO REMAIN AROUND 2.8 FT THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS BUT MAY CREEP A BIT HIGHER DEPENDING ON FUTURE RAINFALL
THROUGH MID WEEK. AREA RIVERS AND CREEKS ARE RUNNING AT FAIRLY HIGH
LEVELS WITH THE HEAVY RAINS OVER THE PAST WEEK AND A HALF. THERE
WILL BE A CONCERN FOR RISES ON FAST RESPONDING SMALLER RIVERS AND
CREEKS LATER TODAY AND TUESDAY WITH ANY HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH MAY
LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING. AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN HEAVY RAIN OVER THE
PAST WEEK OR SO INCLUDING DAYTONA BEACH/NEW SMYRNA BEACH/PORTIONS OF
ORANGE/SEMINOLE/BREVARD AND INDIAN RIVER COUNTIES WILL BE ESPECIALLY
SUSCEPTIBLE TO ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  87  73  86  73 /  70  70  60  30
MCO  89  73  89  72 /  70  60  60  30
MLB  88  74  88  73 /  70  60  60  30
VRB  88  73  90  73 /  70  60  60  30
LEE  88  73  88  72 /  70  50  60  30
SFB  88  74  89  73 /  70  60  60  30
ORL  89  74  89  74 /  70  60  60  30
FPR  89  73  90  72 /  70  60  60  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
     COASTAL VOLUSIA-INDIAN RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA-MARTIN-NORTHERN
     BREVARD-NORTHERN LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-
     SOUTHERN BREVARD-SOUTHERN LAKE-ST. LUCIE.

AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...VOLKMER
LONG TERM....SEDLOCK









000
FXUS62 KMLB 290741
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
340 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...

...FLOOD WATCH WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR EAST CENTRAL FL THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TUESDAY EVENING...
...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY...

TODAY...STRONG S/W ALOFT NEAR THE NRN GULF COAST WILL MOVE EASTWARD
TODAY AND INCREASE UPPER DIVERGENCE OVER E CENTRAL FL AS AN AREA OF
SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND MOVES TWD THE NRN FL PENINSULA BY THIS
EVENING. A FEW MID LVL IMPULSES ARE FORECAST TO MOVE TWD E CENTRAL
FL INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS LOW LVL FLOW VEERS TO S THIS MORNING
AND SW THIS AFTERNOON. SHOULD SEE ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER
ACROSS THE ERN PORTION OF THE STATE TO GET SOME MORNING SUN TO WORK
ON INCREASINGLY MOIST AIRMASS WITH PWATS PROGGED TO INCREASE TO 2.2
TO 2.4 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON. APPEARS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL BE
MAXIMIZED IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
MOVES SLOWLY INLAND AND MEETS UP WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE
INTERIOR AND MOVING TOWARD THE COAST. 4KM WRF FOR SPC INDICATES HIGH
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING OVER E CENTRAL FL BY LATE
AFTERNOON AND MOVING TOWARD THE EAST COAST AND INTO THE NEAR SHORE
ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING. WITH THE EXTREMELY DEEP
MOISTURE AND DYNAMIC SUPPORT EXPECT SHOWERS WITH INTENSE RAINFALL
RATES WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO 2-4 INCHES WITH AREAS THAT SEE
REPEATED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. WILL HOIST A
FLOOD WATCH FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY WITH THE THREAT FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN CONTINUING AGAIN TOMORROW AS THE FRONT DROPS
INTO CENTRAL FL TRAILING FROM THE LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFFSHORE. WILL
HAVE RAIN CHANCES AROUND 70 PERCENT MOST OF THE AREA AND THAT MAY BE
CONSERVATIVE. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL HAVE FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS ABOVE 40 MPH AS THEY MOVE TOWARD THE
EAST COAST. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S NORTH TO NEAR 90 AROUND
LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

TONIGHT...EXPECT ONGOING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ERN HALF
OF E CENTRAL FL INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE PUSHING INTO THE ATLC
BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. DEEP MOISTURE IN THE PREFRONTAL AIRMASS AND
ANOTHER MID LVL IMPULSE IN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOWS MAINLY IN
THE LOWER 70S WITH RAIN COOLED AIR.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL
FLORIDA EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD.
AMPLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE...MODEST INSTABILITY AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY
ALOFT WILL PROVIDE ABOVE NORMAL RAIN CHANCES (60 PERCENT) AGAIN ON
THIS DAY. THE CONCERN FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING CONTINUES. WESTERLY
STEERING FLOW WILL TAKE SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE PENINSULA AND OFF
OF THE EAST COAST AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

WED-THU...FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE
OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING INTO THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA. A LIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE PRESENT OVER THE AREA WITH AN EAST COAST
SEA BREEZE FORECAST EACH DAY. WESTERLY FLOW ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL
REMAIN DOMINANT EACH DAY...THOUGH STEERING FLOW WINDS WILL BE WEAKER
THAN ON TUE. WILL GO WITH FAIRLY HIGH POPS AGAIN ON WED (40-50
PERCENT) AND 30 TO 40 PERCENT FOR THU. AGAIN...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH NUISANCE FLOODING POSSIBLE ACROSS
AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS.

FRI-SUN...GENERAL TROUGHINESS ALOFT WILL ENCOMPASS THE EASTERN THIRD
OF THE CONUS THROUGH THIS TIME. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DROP
INTO THE NORTH FLORIDA PENINSULA FRI OVERNIGHT...THEN INTO CENTRAL
FLORIDA DURING THE DAY ON SAT. BY SUNDAY IT WILL MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHERN PENINSULA. DECENT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL AGAIN POOL ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THIS LATEST WEATHER SYSTEM. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A
COOLER/DRYER AIRMASS BEHIND THIS FRONT. FOR NOW WILL KEEP 40 PERCENT
POPS IN FOR FRI...50 PERCENT FOR SAT AND GRADUALLY DRY THINGS OUT
SOUTH OF A KMLB-KISM LINE DURING THE DAY ON SUN AS THE FRONT PRESSES
SOUTHWARD.



&&

.AVIATION...
SCT-NMRS SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED ACROSS E CENTRAL FL THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF A S/W TROUGH ALOFT MOVING TWD N FL. HAVE ADDED TEMPO TSRA THIS
AFTERNOON ALL TERMINALS AND EXPECT A CHC OF SHRA INTO LATE EVENING.
IFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED WITH VSBYS BLO 3 MILES WITH
TSRA IN THE MID TO LATE AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...

SSE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME S-SW THIS AFTERNOON AND SW
TONIGHT. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2-3 FT NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND 3-4
FT OFFSHORE. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL APPROACH FROM THE
INTRACOASTAL AND NEAR SHORE WATERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. STORM GUSTS OVER 34 KNOTS WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARD.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...INITIAL WSW WINDS WILL VEER TO NW DURING THE DAY
SURROUNDING DEVELOPING WEAK LOW PRESSURE NORTHEAST OF THE WATERS AS
WELL AS A WEAK FRONT SLIDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA. INITIAL WINDS
SPEEDS OF 14-17 KTS OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC WILL DECREASE TO 10-15
KTS DURING THE DAY AND 8-12 KTS OVERNIGHT TUE. DEEP MOISTURE OVER
THE AREA WILL PROVIDE FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH ACTIVITY MOVING OFF OF
THE COAST AT 15 TO 20 KTS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS FORECAST AND
STORMS MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY WINDS. SEAS 1 TO 3 FEET NEAR
SHORE AND 2 TO 4 FEET WELL OFFSHORE.

WED-FRI...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY GRADUALLY MOVES SOUTH OF THE WATERS
ON WED WITH A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA.
EXPECT AN EAST COAST SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INLAND EACH
AFTERNOON. THE OFFSHORE STEERING FLOW WILL BE WEAKER WED-FRI...BUT
AMPLE MOISTURE WILL KEEP CHANCE WORDING FOR SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE
FORECAST. SEAS EXPECTED 2-3 FT NEAR SHORE TO 3-4 OFFSHORE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...EARLY MORNING RIVER LEVELS ALONG THE ST JOHNS AT ASTOR
HAVE BEEN HOVERING AROUND 2.8 FT WHICH IS FLOOD STAGE. THE CURRENT
FORECAST IS FOR THE RIVER LEVEL TO REMAIN AROUND 2.8 FT THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS BUT MAY CREEP A BIT HIGHER DEPENDING ON FUTURE RAINFALL
THROUGH MID WEEK. AREA RIVERS AND CREEKS ARE RUNNING AT FAIRLY HIGH
LEVELS WITH THE HEAVY RAINS OVER THE PAST WEEK AND A HALF. THERE
WILL BE A CONCERN FOR RISES ON FAST RESPONDING SMALLER RIVERS AND
CREEKS LATER TODAY AND TUESDAY WITH ANY HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH MAY
LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING. AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN HEAVY RAIN OVER THE
PAST WEEK OR SO INCLUDING DAYTONA BEACH/NEW SMYRNA BEACH/PORTIONS OF
ORANGE/SEMINOLE/BREVARD AND INDIAN RIVER COUNTIES WILL BE ESPECIALLY
SUSCEPTIBLE TO ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  87  73  86  73 /  70  70  60  30
MCO  89  73  89  72 /  70  60  60  30
MLB  88  74  88  73 /  70  60  60  30
VRB  88  73  90  73 /  70  60  60  30
LEE  88  73  88  72 /  70  50  60  30
SFB  88  74  89  73 /  70  60  60  30
ORL  89  74  89  74 /  70  60  60  30
FPR  89  73  90  72 /  70  60  60  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
     COASTAL VOLUSIA-INDIAN RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA-MARTIN-NORTHERN
     BREVARD-NORTHERN LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-
     SOUTHERN BREVARD-SOUTHERN LAKE-ST. LUCIE.

AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...VOLKMER
LONG TERM....SEDLOCK








000
FXUS62 KMLB 290249 AAA
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1049 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...

OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTH INTO LAKE AND METRO ORLANDO WILL
BRING A DOSE OF HEAVY RAIN AND SOME THUNDER THROUGH 1 AM OR SO. THIS
IS A RESULT OF GRADUALLY VEERING STEERING FLOW WHICH IS BRINGING
SOME OF THE CONVECTION BACK TOWARD PORTIONS OF EC FL. HAVE UPDATED
THE FORECAST TO INCREASE RAIN CHANCES OVER THE NORTH INTERIOR FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. EVIDENCE OF THE VEERING WIND FLOW CAN ALSO BE
SEEN IN THE MOTION OF THE ATLC COASTAL SHOWERS...NOW TRACKING TOWARD
THE NW. THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF SHOWERS THAT WILL CROSS THE
COAST SO WILL KEEP A SMALL 20 POP THERE.

MONDAY (MODIFIED)...DEEP MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
INCREASING TO 2.1 TO 2.3 INCHES AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD
ACROSS AL/GA AND N FL. WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO TRACK
EASTWARD NEAR THE FL-GA BORDER WITH LOW LVL SE-SSE FLOW VEERING
QUICKLY TO THE S-SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SHOULD SEE NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND STORMS DEVELOP IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE MID LVL S/W AND
DISTURBANCES ALOFT TRACKING EASTWARD TWD THE FL WEST COAST IN THE
MORNING AND ACROSS THE PENINSULA BY AFTERNOON. THERE IS LIKELY TO BE
AN EAST COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY SITTING NEAR THE COAST...ESP SOUTH
OF THE CAPE...WHICH WILL GREET THE INCOMING CONVECTION FROM THE WEST
AND RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY NEAR THE COAST.
MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN A
CONCERN WITH STORMS WITH SUCH HIGH MOISTURE LEVELS. FLOODING MAY
OCCUR IN AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN HEAVY RAIN THE PAST WEEK WITH
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL. HAVE TRIMMED HIGH TEMPS FROM GUID A FEW
DEGS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...
SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL LIFT NORTH TOWARD LEE AND POSSIBLY REACH MCO/SFB
BEFORE WEAKENING BY 06Z...OR STAY JUST WEST OF THOSE TWO TERMINALS.
MULTILAYERED CLOUDINESS EXPECTED MONDAY WITH LOWERING CLOUD BASES.
WILL KEEP CONDITIONS VFR (BARELY) WITH LIBERAL USE OF VC TERM FOR
SHRA IN THE MORNING AND TSRA AFT 18Z.

&&

.MARINE...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO CURRENT COASTAL WATERS FORECAST.

TONIGHT...EXPECT WINDS TO VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AS WEAK
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. SEAS 2 TO 4
FEET.

MON-TUE...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS TO 15 KNOTS AHEAD OF A FRONT
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...FLORIDA AND OFF GEORGIA
AND SOUTH CAROLINA TUE NIGHT. SEAS 1 TO 3 FEET NEARSHORE AND 2 TO 4
FEET WELL OFFSHORE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  75  85  74  86 /  50  70  60  60
MCO  74  88  73  89 /  50  70  50  60
MLB  77  87  74  89 /  40  60  60  60
VRB  75  88  74  90 /  30  60  50  60
LEE  74  87  74  88 /  50  70  50  60
SFB  75  88  74  89 /  50  70  60  60
ORL  76  88  74  89 /  50  70  50  60
FPR  74  88  74  90 /  30  60  50  60

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

KELLY/CRISTALDI







000
FXUS62 KMLB 290249 AAA
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1049 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...

OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTH INTO LAKE AND METRO ORLANDO WILL
BRING A DOSE OF HEAVY RAIN AND SOME THUNDER THROUGH 1 AM OR SO. THIS
IS A RESULT OF GRADUALLY VEERING STEERING FLOW WHICH IS BRINGING
SOME OF THE CONVECTION BACK TOWARD PORTIONS OF EC FL. HAVE UPDATED
THE FORECAST TO INCREASE RAIN CHANCES OVER THE NORTH INTERIOR FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. EVIDENCE OF THE VEERING WIND FLOW CAN ALSO BE
SEEN IN THE MOTION OF THE ATLC COASTAL SHOWERS...NOW TRACKING TOWARD
THE NW. THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF SHOWERS THAT WILL CROSS THE
COAST SO WILL KEEP A SMALL 20 POP THERE.

MONDAY (MODIFIED)...DEEP MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
INCREASING TO 2.1 TO 2.3 INCHES AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD
ACROSS AL/GA AND N FL. WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO TRACK
EASTWARD NEAR THE FL-GA BORDER WITH LOW LVL SE-SSE FLOW VEERING
QUICKLY TO THE S-SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SHOULD SEE NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND STORMS DEVELOP IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE MID LVL S/W AND
DISTURBANCES ALOFT TRACKING EASTWARD TWD THE FL WEST COAST IN THE
MORNING AND ACROSS THE PENINSULA BY AFTERNOON. THERE IS LIKELY TO BE
AN EAST COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY SITTING NEAR THE COAST...ESP SOUTH
OF THE CAPE...WHICH WILL GREET THE INCOMING CONVECTION FROM THE WEST
AND RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY NEAR THE COAST.
MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN A
CONCERN WITH STORMS WITH SUCH HIGH MOISTURE LEVELS. FLOODING MAY
OCCUR IN AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN HEAVY RAIN THE PAST WEEK WITH
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL. HAVE TRIMMED HIGH TEMPS FROM GUID A FEW
DEGS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...
SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL LIFT NORTH TOWARD LEE AND POSSIBLY REACH MCO/SFB
BEFORE WEAKENING BY 06Z...OR STAY JUST WEST OF THOSE TWO TERMINALS.
MULTILAYERED CLOUDINESS EXPECTED MONDAY WITH LOWERING CLOUD BASES.
WILL KEEP CONDITIONS VFR (BARELY) WITH LIBERAL USE OF VC TERM FOR
SHRA IN THE MORNING AND TSRA AFT 18Z.

&&

.MARINE...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO CURRENT COASTAL WATERS FORECAST.

TONIGHT...EXPECT WINDS TO VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AS WEAK
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. SEAS 2 TO 4
FEET.

MON-TUE...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS TO 15 KNOTS AHEAD OF A FRONT
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...FLORIDA AND OFF GEORGIA
AND SOUTH CAROLINA TUE NIGHT. SEAS 1 TO 3 FEET NEARSHORE AND 2 TO 4
FEET WELL OFFSHORE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  75  85  74  86 /  50  70  60  60
MCO  74  88  73  89 /  50  70  50  60
MLB  77  87  74  89 /  40  60  60  60
VRB  75  88  74  90 /  30  60  50  60
LEE  74  87  74  88 /  50  70  50  60
SFB  75  88  74  89 /  50  70  60  60
ORL  76  88  74  89 /  50  70  50  60
FPR  74  88  74  90 /  30  60  50  60

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

KELLY/CRISTALDI








000
FXUS62 KMLB 281913
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
313 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...

...INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FL MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED WITH STORMS...

CURRENT-TONIGHT...RADAR DETECTING A STEADY STREAM OF SHOWERS IN DEEP
EAST SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER THE ATLANTIC...COMING ASHORE AND MAKING IT
WELL INTO THE INTERIOR. MORNING SOUNDINGS INDICATE PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES BETWEEN 2 AND 2.25 INCHES AND 500MB TEMPERATURES AROUND
-6 DEGREES CELSIUS. PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE WILL BE RAIN...LOCALLY
HEAVY AT TIMES EVENING...WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. EXPECT
THAT THE SHOWERS AND STORMS END BY LATE EVENING AS THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL HAVE BEEN WELL WORKED OVER AND A MID LEVEL VORTICITY MIN
CROSSES OVERHEAD DAMPENING CONVECTION FOR A FEW HOURS. LOWS IN THE
MID 70S EXCEPT FOR THE COAST COCOA BEACH SOUTH WHERE IT SOULD BE
IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S...THE LOW AND MID 70S FROM THE WESTERN
SECTIONS OF INDIAN RIVER SAINT LUCIE COUNTIES ACROSS OSCEOLA AND
OKEECHOBEE COUNTIES TO THE KISSIMMEE RIVER.

MON-TUE...BOTH GFS AND ECMWF ON BOARD WITH DEVELOPING A LOW IN THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND MOVING IT EAST NORTHEAST OFF OF GEORGIA
AND SOUTH CAROLINA BY TUESDAY NIGHT. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD THE
SYSTEM MAINTAINS THE WARM AND VERY MOIST AIRMASS THAT HAS BEEN
PLACE OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA FOR SEVERAL DAYS. THE 12Z UPPER AIR
SOUNDINGS FOR TODAY INDICATED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 2
AND 2.25 INCHES THROUGH A 10 MPH SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW FROM JUST OFF
THE SURFACE TO AROUND 10000 FEET. FORECAST POPS FOR BOTH MON AND
TUE LOOKED A LITTLE LOW CONSIDERING THE MOISTURE AND MID LEVEL
SUPPORT CROSSING OVERHEAD THEREFORE MANUALLY ADJUSTED POPS FOR
BOTH DAYS TO 60 AREAWIDE WITH SHOWERS LIKELY AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF
A STORM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING BOTH DAYS. TOOK A
DEGREE OR TWO OFF THE DAILY HIGH EACH GIVEN THE MOSTLY CLOUDY TO
CONSIDERABLY CLOUDY SKIES HOLDING BACK DAYTIME HEATING A BIT.

PREVIOUS ZONES DISCUSSION

TODAY-TONIGHT...MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG THE EASTERN US WILL
SLIDE SLOWLY SOUTH AND EAST TODAY...BRINGING STEERING FLOW AROUND TO
THE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE THERE REMAINS SOME HINT OF THE
LOW LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE ATLANTIC JUST TO THE EAST...FOR
THE MOST PART THE FLOW HAS BECOME STEADILY EAST ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF
THE HIGH STRETCHING ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND MID-ATLANTIC.

CIRA/AMSU WATER VAPOR SAT SHOWS DRIER PWAT AIR FINALLY ENCROACHING
ON EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA THIS MORNING. PWATS SHOULD DROP
FROM THE JUICY 2.2-2.3" RANGE WE`VE BEEN IN FOR MOST OF THE WEEK TO
A STILL MOIST BUT MORE REASONABLE 1.9-2.0".

COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY WITH THE
ONGOING SCT ATLANTIC AND COASTAL SHOWERS THIS MORNING TRANSLATING
QUICKLY INLAND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. POPS 30 PERCENT ALONG THE
COAST...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF VOLUSIA COUNTY WHERE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE LINGERS AND A FEW ADDITIONAL BANDS MAY SET UP ALONG THE
COAST...OR FURTHER NORTH INTO FLAGLER LIKE FRIDAY AND SAT. POPS
40-50 PERCENT FOR THE INTERIOR WITH HIGHEST COVERAGE AT 60 PERCENT
WEST OF I-4 AND LAKE COUNTY WHERE VEERING FLOW WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND
STORMS FROM RACING QUITE AS QUICKLY WEST AS YESTERDAY. AS WITH THE
PAST WEEK...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THREAT CONTINUES...MAINLY OVER THE
INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON.

ISOLATED-WIDELY SCATTERED ATLANTIC SHOWERS OVERNIGHT WITH A FEW
BRUSHING THE COAST FROM BREVARD SOUTHWARDS.

MONDAY...DEEP MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO E CENTRAL FL WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES INCREASING TO 2.1 TO 2.3 INCHES AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS AL/GA AND N FL. 00Z GFS INDICATE SFC LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK EASTWARD NEAR THE FL-GA BORDER WITH LOW LVL
SE-SSE FLOW VEERING QUICKLY TO THE S-SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SHOULD SEE
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE
MID LVL S/W AND DISTURBANCES ALOFT TRACKING EASTWARD TWD THE FL WEST
COAST IN THE MORNING AND ACROSS THE PENINSULA BY AFTERNOON. MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN A CONCERN WITH
STORMS WITH SUCH HIGH MOISTURE LEVELS. FLOODING MAY OCCUR IN AREAS
THAT HAVE SEEN HEAVY RAIN THE PAST WEEK WITH ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAINFALL. HAVE TRIMMED HIGH TEMPS FROM GUID A FEW DEGS MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 80S.

TUESDAY...THE MID LVL S/W WILL BE PUSHING OFF THE GA/SC COAST WITH
SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFFSHORE. TRAILING DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS
CENTRAL FL WITH WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW FROM 25-30 KNOTS FROM THE
WEST SHOULD AGAIN SET UP HIGH RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE DAY. WILL
KEEP POPS AROUND 60 PCT WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING QUICKLY
TOWARD THE EAST COAST AND ATLC WATERS. DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF SFC
HEATING COULD SEE SOME STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS. IF STORMS
DEVELOP IN AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN RECENT HEAVY RAIN THERE WILL BE A
CONCERN FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING AGAIN ON TUE.

WED-THU...SOMEWHAT LOWER RAIN CHANCES ARE FORECAST FOR MID WEEK
MAINLY IN THE 30-40 PCT RANGE AS A SFC FRONT MOVES SOUTH TOWARD LAKE
OKEECHOBEE BY WED NIGHT INTO THU. SHOULD SEE SOME DRYING TO THE
AIRMASS AS LOW LVL WINDS BECOME N-NE WED INTO THU. GFS INDICATES
MORE DRYING BUT ECMWF DOES ALSO BEGIN TO SHOW SOME DRIER AIR ACROSS
NRN SECTIONS BY LATE WED/THU. HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN
ACROSS FAR SRN SECTIONS AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE FOR LATE WEEK.

FRI-SAT...ANOTHER FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE AREA LATE FRI
INTO SATURDAY WITH SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES FROM THE 00Z GFS TO THE
FASTER ECMWF. WILL LEAN TWD THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER GFS WITH HIGHEST
RAIN CHANCES SATURDAY AROUND 50 PCT. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE A
COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO E CENTRAL FL FOR SUNDAY WITH
HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.


&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR CONDITIONS IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS FROM 22Z-02Z.


&&

.MARINE...
CURRENT...THE NOAA BUOYS...SCRIPPS BUOYS AND CMAN BUOYS WERE
RECORDING EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS AND SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET OUT
TO 20NM AND TO 4 FEET AT BUOY 010 120NM OFF NEW SMYRNA BEACH.

TONIGHT...EAST SOUTHEAST FLOW AROUND 10 KNOTS CONTINUES AND 2 TO 3
FOOT SEAS CONTINUES TONIGHT.

MON-TUE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS TO 15 KNOTS AHEAD OF A FRONT
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...FLORIDA AND OFF
GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA TUE NIGHT. SEAS 1 TO 3 FEET NEARSHORE
AND 2 TO 4 FEET WELL OFFSHORE.

PREVIOUS MARINE DISCUSSION.
TODAY-TONIGHT...STEADY EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW 10-15KTS HAS DEVELOPED
OVER MOST OF THE WATERS THOUGH WINDS NEAR THE VOLUSIA COAST STILL
REMAIN STUBBORNLY BACKED NORTH-NORTHEAST. MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE
DIFFICULTY RESOLVING THIS WEDGE AND THOSE THAT DO CONTINUE TO VEER
WINDS TO THE EAST RATHER QUICKLY EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER GIVEN
THE FORECAST TREND FOR SYNOPTIC FLOW TO VEER MORE SOUTHEAST WITH
TIME...THINK THIS AREA WILL FINALLY JOIN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
LATER TODAY. HOWEVER EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN A FEW DEGREES MORE
BACKED THAN THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS. SCATTERED ATLANTIC
SHOWERS CONTINUE WITH A FEW STORMS POSSIBLE. SEAS 3-4FT WITH
DOMINANT PERIODS 7-8SEC EARLY BECOMING 9SEC THIS EVENING.

SE WINDS EARLY MONDAY WILL VEER QUICKLY TO THE S/SW IN THE AFTERNOON
AS SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. ON TUESDAY...WESTERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER DAY WITH HIGH
RAIN CHANCES AND POSSIBLY GUSTY WINDS WITH QUICK EASTWARD MOVING
STORMS. SEAS MON INTO TUE  NEAR 3 FT NEAR SHORE TO 4 FT OFFSHORE.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE WATERS INTO
MID WEEK WITH NORTHERLY FLOW WED VEERING TO NE TO E INTO LATE WEEK.
SEAS EXPECTED 2-3 FT NEAR SHORE TO 3-4 OFFSHORE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  75  85  74  86 /  50  70  60  60
MCO  74  88  73  89 /  50  70  50  60
MLB  77  87  74  89 /  40  60  60  60
VRB  75  88  74  90 /  30  60  50  60
LEE  74  87  74  88 /  50  70  50  60
SFB  75  88  74  89 /  50  70  60  60
ORL  76  88  74  89 /  50  70  50  60
FPR  74  88  74  90 /  30  60  50  60

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

IMPACT WX...SPRATT
FORECASTS...WIMMER





000
FXUS62 KMLB 281913
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
313 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...

...INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FL MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED WITH STORMS...

CURRENT-TONIGHT...RADAR DETECTING A STEADY STREAM OF SHOWERS IN DEEP
EAST SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER THE ATLANTIC...COMING ASHORE AND MAKING IT
WELL INTO THE INTERIOR. MORNING SOUNDINGS INDICATE PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES BETWEEN 2 AND 2.25 INCHES AND 500MB TEMPERATURES AROUND
-6 DEGREES CELSIUS. PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE WILL BE RAIN...LOCALLY
HEAVY AT TIMES EVENING...WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. EXPECT
THAT THE SHOWERS AND STORMS END BY LATE EVENING AS THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL HAVE BEEN WELL WORKED OVER AND A MID LEVEL VORTICITY MIN
CROSSES OVERHEAD DAMPENING CONVECTION FOR A FEW HOURS. LOWS IN THE
MID 70S EXCEPT FOR THE COAST COCOA BEACH SOUTH WHERE IT SOULD BE
IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S...THE LOW AND MID 70S FROM THE WESTERN
SECTIONS OF INDIAN RIVER SAINT LUCIE COUNTIES ACROSS OSCEOLA AND
OKEECHOBEE COUNTIES TO THE KISSIMMEE RIVER.

MON-TUE...BOTH GFS AND ECMWF ON BOARD WITH DEVELOPING A LOW IN THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND MOVING IT EAST NORTHEAST OFF OF GEORGIA
AND SOUTH CAROLINA BY TUESDAY NIGHT. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD THE
SYSTEM MAINTAINS THE WARM AND VERY MOIST AIRMASS THAT HAS BEEN
PLACE OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA FOR SEVERAL DAYS. THE 12Z UPPER AIR
SOUNDINGS FOR TODAY INDICATED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 2
AND 2.25 INCHES THROUGH A 10 MPH SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW FROM JUST OFF
THE SURFACE TO AROUND 10000 FEET. FORECAST POPS FOR BOTH MON AND
TUE LOOKED A LITTLE LOW CONSIDERING THE MOISTURE AND MID LEVEL
SUPPORT CROSSING OVERHEAD THEREFORE MANUALLY ADJUSTED POPS FOR
BOTH DAYS TO 60 AREAWIDE WITH SHOWERS LIKELY AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF
A STORM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING BOTH DAYS. TOOK A
DEGREE OR TWO OFF THE DAILY HIGH EACH GIVEN THE MOSTLY CLOUDY TO
CONSIDERABLY CLOUDY SKIES HOLDING BACK DAYTIME HEATING A BIT.

PREVIOUS ZONES DISCUSSION

TODAY-TONIGHT...MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG THE EASTERN US WILL
SLIDE SLOWLY SOUTH AND EAST TODAY...BRINGING STEERING FLOW AROUND TO
THE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE THERE REMAINS SOME HINT OF THE
LOW LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE ATLANTIC JUST TO THE EAST...FOR
THE MOST PART THE FLOW HAS BECOME STEADILY EAST ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF
THE HIGH STRETCHING ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND MID-ATLANTIC.

CIRA/AMSU WATER VAPOR SAT SHOWS DRIER PWAT AIR FINALLY ENCROACHING
ON EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA THIS MORNING. PWATS SHOULD DROP
FROM THE JUICY 2.2-2.3" RANGE WE`VE BEEN IN FOR MOST OF THE WEEK TO
A STILL MOIST BUT MORE REASONABLE 1.9-2.0".

COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY WITH THE
ONGOING SCT ATLANTIC AND COASTAL SHOWERS THIS MORNING TRANSLATING
QUICKLY INLAND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. POPS 30 PERCENT ALONG THE
COAST...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF VOLUSIA COUNTY WHERE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE LINGERS AND A FEW ADDITIONAL BANDS MAY SET UP ALONG THE
COAST...OR FURTHER NORTH INTO FLAGLER LIKE FRIDAY AND SAT. POPS
40-50 PERCENT FOR THE INTERIOR WITH HIGHEST COVERAGE AT 60 PERCENT
WEST OF I-4 AND LAKE COUNTY WHERE VEERING FLOW WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND
STORMS FROM RACING QUITE AS QUICKLY WEST AS YESTERDAY. AS WITH THE
PAST WEEK...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THREAT CONTINUES...MAINLY OVER THE
INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON.

ISOLATED-WIDELY SCATTERED ATLANTIC SHOWERS OVERNIGHT WITH A FEW
BRUSHING THE COAST FROM BREVARD SOUTHWARDS.

MONDAY...DEEP MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO E CENTRAL FL WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES INCREASING TO 2.1 TO 2.3 INCHES AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS AL/GA AND N FL. 00Z GFS INDICATE SFC LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK EASTWARD NEAR THE FL-GA BORDER WITH LOW LVL
SE-SSE FLOW VEERING QUICKLY TO THE S-SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SHOULD SEE
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE
MID LVL S/W AND DISTURBANCES ALOFT TRACKING EASTWARD TWD THE FL WEST
COAST IN THE MORNING AND ACROSS THE PENINSULA BY AFTERNOON. MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN A CONCERN WITH
STORMS WITH SUCH HIGH MOISTURE LEVELS. FLOODING MAY OCCUR IN AREAS
THAT HAVE SEEN HEAVY RAIN THE PAST WEEK WITH ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAINFALL. HAVE TRIMMED HIGH TEMPS FROM GUID A FEW DEGS MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 80S.

TUESDAY...THE MID LVL S/W WILL BE PUSHING OFF THE GA/SC COAST WITH
SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFFSHORE. TRAILING DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS
CENTRAL FL WITH WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW FROM 25-30 KNOTS FROM THE
WEST SHOULD AGAIN SET UP HIGH RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE DAY. WILL
KEEP POPS AROUND 60 PCT WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING QUICKLY
TOWARD THE EAST COAST AND ATLC WATERS. DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF SFC
HEATING COULD SEE SOME STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS. IF STORMS
DEVELOP IN AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN RECENT HEAVY RAIN THERE WILL BE A
CONCERN FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING AGAIN ON TUE.

WED-THU...SOMEWHAT LOWER RAIN CHANCES ARE FORECAST FOR MID WEEK
MAINLY IN THE 30-40 PCT RANGE AS A SFC FRONT MOVES SOUTH TOWARD LAKE
OKEECHOBEE BY WED NIGHT INTO THU. SHOULD SEE SOME DRYING TO THE
AIRMASS AS LOW LVL WINDS BECOME N-NE WED INTO THU. GFS INDICATES
MORE DRYING BUT ECMWF DOES ALSO BEGIN TO SHOW SOME DRIER AIR ACROSS
NRN SECTIONS BY LATE WED/THU. HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN
ACROSS FAR SRN SECTIONS AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE FOR LATE WEEK.

FRI-SAT...ANOTHER FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE AREA LATE FRI
INTO SATURDAY WITH SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES FROM THE 00Z GFS TO THE
FASTER ECMWF. WILL LEAN TWD THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER GFS WITH HIGHEST
RAIN CHANCES SATURDAY AROUND 50 PCT. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE A
COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO E CENTRAL FL FOR SUNDAY WITH
HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.


&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR CONDITIONS IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS FROM 22Z-02Z.


&&

.MARINE...
CURRENT...THE NOAA BUOYS...SCRIPPS BUOYS AND CMAN BUOYS WERE
RECORDING EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS AND SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET OUT
TO 20NM AND TO 4 FEET AT BUOY 010 120NM OFF NEW SMYRNA BEACH.

TONIGHT...EAST SOUTHEAST FLOW AROUND 10 KNOTS CONTINUES AND 2 TO 3
FOOT SEAS CONTINUES TONIGHT.

MON-TUE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS TO 15 KNOTS AHEAD OF A FRONT
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...FLORIDA AND OFF
GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA TUE NIGHT. SEAS 1 TO 3 FEET NEARSHORE
AND 2 TO 4 FEET WELL OFFSHORE.

PREVIOUS MARINE DISCUSSION.
TODAY-TONIGHT...STEADY EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW 10-15KTS HAS DEVELOPED
OVER MOST OF THE WATERS THOUGH WINDS NEAR THE VOLUSIA COAST STILL
REMAIN STUBBORNLY BACKED NORTH-NORTHEAST. MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE
DIFFICULTY RESOLVING THIS WEDGE AND THOSE THAT DO CONTINUE TO VEER
WINDS TO THE EAST RATHER QUICKLY EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER GIVEN
THE FORECAST TREND FOR SYNOPTIC FLOW TO VEER MORE SOUTHEAST WITH
TIME...THINK THIS AREA WILL FINALLY JOIN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
LATER TODAY. HOWEVER EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN A FEW DEGREES MORE
BACKED THAN THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS. SCATTERED ATLANTIC
SHOWERS CONTINUE WITH A FEW STORMS POSSIBLE. SEAS 3-4FT WITH
DOMINANT PERIODS 7-8SEC EARLY BECOMING 9SEC THIS EVENING.

SE WINDS EARLY MONDAY WILL VEER QUICKLY TO THE S/SW IN THE AFTERNOON
AS SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. ON TUESDAY...WESTERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER DAY WITH HIGH
RAIN CHANCES AND POSSIBLY GUSTY WINDS WITH QUICK EASTWARD MOVING
STORMS. SEAS MON INTO TUE  NEAR 3 FT NEAR SHORE TO 4 FT OFFSHORE.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE WATERS INTO
MID WEEK WITH NORTHERLY FLOW WED VEERING TO NE TO E INTO LATE WEEK.
SEAS EXPECTED 2-3 FT NEAR SHORE TO 3-4 OFFSHORE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  75  85  74  86 /  50  70  60  60
MCO  74  88  73  89 /  50  70  50  60
MLB  77  87  74  89 /  40  60  60  60
VRB  75  88  74  90 /  30  60  50  60
LEE  74  87  74  88 /  50  70  50  60
SFB  75  88  74  89 /  50  70  60  60
ORL  76  88  74  89 /  50  70  50  60
FPR  74  88  74  90 /  30  60  50  60

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

IMPACT WX...SPRATT
FORECASTS...WIMMER






000
FXUS62 KMLB 281305
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
905 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON...
...INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FL MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED WITH STORMS...

CURRENT-THIS AFTERNOON...RADAR DETECTING A STEADY STREAM OF SHOWERS
IN DEEP EAST SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER THE ATLANTIC...COMING ASHORE AND
MAKING IT WELL PAST INTERSTATE 95 AND INTO THE INTERIOR. MORNING
SOUNDINGS INDICATE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 2 AND 2.25
INCHES AND 500MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -6 DEGREES CELSIUS. PRIMARY
WEATHER FEATURE WILL BE RAIN...LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. WILL ADD THE MENTION OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE TO THE INTERIOR AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING WEATHER GRIDS. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS GOOD.

PREVIOUS ZONES DISCUSSION

TODAY-TONIGHT...MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG THE EASTERN US WILL
SLIDE SLOWLY SOUTH AND EAST TODAY...BRINGING STEERING FLOW AROUND TO
THE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE THERE REMAINS SOME HINT OF THE
LOW LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE ATLANTIC JUST TO THE EAST...FOR
THE MOST PART THE FLOW HAS BECOME STEADILY EAST ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF
THE HIGH STRETCHING ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND MID-ATLANTIC.

CIRA/AMSU WATER VAPOR SAT SHOWS DRIER PWAT AIR FINALLY ENCROACHING
ON EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA THIS MORNING. PWATS SHOULD DROP
FROM THE JUICY 2.2-2.3" RANGE WE`VE BEEN IN FOR MOST OF THE WEEK TO
A STILL MOIST BUT MORE REASONABLE 1.9-2.0".

COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY WITH THE
ONGOING SCT ATLANTIC AND COASTAL SHOWERS THIS MORNING TRANSLATING
QUICKLY INLAND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. POPS 30 PERCENT ALONG THE
COAST...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF VOLUSIA COUNTY WHERE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE LINGERS AND A FEW ADDITIONAL BANDS MAY SET UP ALONG THE
COAST...OR FURTHER NORTH INTO FLAGLER LIKE FRIDAY AND SAT. POPS
40-50 PERCENT FOR THE INTERIOR WITH HIGHEST COVERAGE AT 60 PERCENT
WEST OF I-4 AND LAKE COUNTY WHERE VEERING FLOW WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND
STORMS FROM RACING QUITE AS QUICKLY WEST AS YESTERDAY. AS WITH THE
PAST WEEK...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THREAT CONTINUES...MAINLY OVER THE
INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON.

ISOLATED-WIDELY SCATTERED ATLANTIC SHOWERS OVERNIGHT WITH A FEW
BRUSHING THE COAST FROM BREVARD SOUTHWARDS.

MONDAY...DEEP MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO E CENTRAL FL WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES INCREASING TO 2.1 TO 2.3 INCHES AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS AL/GA AND N FL. 00Z GFS INDICATE SFC LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK EASTWARD NEAR THE FL-GA BORDER WITH LOW LVL
SE-SSE FLOW VEERING QUICKLY TO THE S-SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SHOULD SEE
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE
MID LVL S/W AND DISTURBANCES ALOFT TRACKING EASTWARD TWD THE FL WEST
COAST IN THE MORNING AND ACROSS THE PENINSULA BY AFTERNOON. MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN A CONCERN WITH
STORMS WITH SUCH HIGH MOISTURE LEVELS. FLOODING MAY OCCUR IN AREAS
THAT HAVE SEEN HEAVY RAIN THE PAST WEEK WITH ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAINFALL. HAVE TRIMMED HIGH TEMPS FROM GUID A FEW DEGS MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 80S.

TUESDAY...THE MID LVL S/W WILL BE PUSHING OFF THE GA/SC COAST WITH
SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFFSHORE. TRAILING DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS
CENTRAL FL WITH WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW FROM 25-30 KNOTS FROM THE
WEST SHOULD AGAIN SET UP HIGH RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE DAY. WILL
KEEP POPS AROUND 60 PCT WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING QUICKLY
TOWARD THE EAST COAST AND ATLC WATERS. DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF SFC
HEATING COULD SEE SOME STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS. IF STORMS
DEVELOP IN AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN RECENT HEAVY RAIN THERE WILL BE A
CONCERN FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING AGAIN ON TUE.

WED-THU...SOMEWHAT LOWER RAIN CHANCES ARE FORECAST FOR MID WEEK
MAINLY IN THE 30-40 PCT RANGE AS A SFC FRONT MOVES SOUTH TOWARD LAKE
OKEECHOBEE BY WED NIGHT INTO THU. SHOULD SEE SOME DRYING TO THE
AIRMASS AS LOW LVL WINDS BECOME N-NE WED INTO THU. GFS INDICATES
MORE DRYING BUT ECMWF DOES ALSO BEGIN TO SHOW SOME DRIER AIR ACROSS
NRN SECTIONS BY LATE WED/THU. HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN
ACROSS FAR SRN SECTIONS AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE FOR LATE WEEK.

FRI-SAT...ANOTHER FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE AREA LATE FRI
INTO SATURDAY WITH SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES FROM THE 00Z GFS TO THE
FASTER ECMWF. WILL LEAN TWD THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER GFS WITH HIGHEST
RAIN CHANCES SATURDAY AROUND 50 PCT. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE A
COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO E CENTRAL FL FOR SUNDAY WITH
HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...
SCT SHRA OVER LCL ATLC MOVING INTO COAST WITH ISOLD SHRA REACHING
INTO INTERIOR THROUGH 14Z THIS MORNING. A FEW LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WILL BRING TEMPO IFR CIGS/VSBYS. AFTER 15Z...E-SE FLOW
SHIFTING SCT SHRA/ISOLD TSRA INTO INTERIOR SITES. MOST ACTIVITY WEST
OF ORLANDO AREA TAF SITES AFTER 21Z...BUT ACTIVITY MAY LINGER VCNTY
KLEE THROUGH 00Z.

&&

.MARINE...

CURRENT-THIS AFTERNOON...THE NOAA...SCRIPPS AND CMAN BUOYS IN THE
AREA WERE RECORDING EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 TO 12 KNOTS AND 2
TO 3 FOOT SEAS OUT TO 20NM AND TO 5 FEET AT BUOY  010 AT 120NM OFF
NEW SMYRNA BEACH.

EASTERLY FLOW TO PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST.

PREVIOUS MARINE DISCUSSION.

TODAY-TONIGHT...STEADY EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW 10-15KTS HAS DEVELOPED
OVER MOST OF THE WATERS THOUGH WINDS NEAR THE VOLUSIA COAST STILL
REMAIN STUBBORNLY BACKED NORTH-NORTHEAST. MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE
DIFFICULTY RESOLVING THIS WEDGE AND THOSE THAT DO CONTINUE TO VEER
WINDS TO THE EAST RATHER QUICKLY EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER GIVEN
THE FORECASTED TREND FOR SYNOPTIC FLOW TO VEER MORE SOUTHEAST WITH
TIME...THINK THIS AREA WILL FINALLY JOIN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN LATER
TODAY. HOWEVER EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN A FEW DEGREES MORE BACKED THAN
THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS. SCATTERED ATLANTIC SHOWERS CONTINUE
WITH A FEW STORMS POSSIBLE. SEAS 3-4FT WITH DOMINANT PERIODS 7-8SEC
EARLY BECOMING 9SEC THIS EVENING.

SE WINDS EARLY MONDAY WILL VEER QUICKLY TO THE S/SW IN THE AFTERNOON
AS SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. ON TUESDAY...WESTERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER DAY WITH HIGH
RAIN CHANCES AND POSSIBLY GUSTY WINDS WITH QUICK EASTWARD MOVING
STORMS. SEAS MON INTO TUE  NEAR 3 FT NEAR SHORE TO 4 FT OFFSHORE.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE WATERS INTO
MID WEEK WITH NORTHERLY FLOW WED VEERING TO NE TO E INTO LATE WEEK.
SEAS EXPECTED 2-3 FT NEAR SHORE TO 3-4 OFFSHORE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  87  75  88  75 /  40  20  60  50
MCO  90  74  89  74 /  60  30  60  40
MLB  88  77  88  75 /  30  20  60  50
VRB  87  75  89  75 /  30  20  60  50
LEE  89  75  89  74 /  60  40  60  40
SFB  90  75  89  75 /  60  30  60  40
ORL  89  75  89  75 /  60  30  60  40
FPR  87  74  89  74 /  30  20  50  50

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

IMPACT WX...SPRATT
FORECASTS...WIMMER






000
FXUS62 KMLB 281305
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
905 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON...
...INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FL MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED WITH STORMS...

CURRENT-THIS AFTERNOON...RADAR DETECTING A STEADY STREAM OF SHOWERS
IN DEEP EAST SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER THE ATLANTIC...COMING ASHORE AND
MAKING IT WELL PAST INTERSTATE 95 AND INTO THE INTERIOR. MORNING
SOUNDINGS INDICATE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 2 AND 2.25
INCHES AND 500MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -6 DEGREES CELSIUS. PRIMARY
WEATHER FEATURE WILL BE RAIN...LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. WILL ADD THE MENTION OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE TO THE INTERIOR AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING WEATHER GRIDS. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS GOOD.

PREVIOUS ZONES DISCUSSION

TODAY-TONIGHT...MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG THE EASTERN US WILL
SLIDE SLOWLY SOUTH AND EAST TODAY...BRINGING STEERING FLOW AROUND TO
THE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE THERE REMAINS SOME HINT OF THE
LOW LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE ATLANTIC JUST TO THE EAST...FOR
THE MOST PART THE FLOW HAS BECOME STEADILY EAST ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF
THE HIGH STRETCHING ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND MID-ATLANTIC.

CIRA/AMSU WATER VAPOR SAT SHOWS DRIER PWAT AIR FINALLY ENCROACHING
ON EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA THIS MORNING. PWATS SHOULD DROP
FROM THE JUICY 2.2-2.3" RANGE WE`VE BEEN IN FOR MOST OF THE WEEK TO
A STILL MOIST BUT MORE REASONABLE 1.9-2.0".

COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY WITH THE
ONGOING SCT ATLANTIC AND COASTAL SHOWERS THIS MORNING TRANSLATING
QUICKLY INLAND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. POPS 30 PERCENT ALONG THE
COAST...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF VOLUSIA COUNTY WHERE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE LINGERS AND A FEW ADDITIONAL BANDS MAY SET UP ALONG THE
COAST...OR FURTHER NORTH INTO FLAGLER LIKE FRIDAY AND SAT. POPS
40-50 PERCENT FOR THE INTERIOR WITH HIGHEST COVERAGE AT 60 PERCENT
WEST OF I-4 AND LAKE COUNTY WHERE VEERING FLOW WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND
STORMS FROM RACING QUITE AS QUICKLY WEST AS YESTERDAY. AS WITH THE
PAST WEEK...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THREAT CONTINUES...MAINLY OVER THE
INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON.

ISOLATED-WIDELY SCATTERED ATLANTIC SHOWERS OVERNIGHT WITH A FEW
BRUSHING THE COAST FROM BREVARD SOUTHWARDS.

MONDAY...DEEP MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO E CENTRAL FL WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES INCREASING TO 2.1 TO 2.3 INCHES AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS AL/GA AND N FL. 00Z GFS INDICATE SFC LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK EASTWARD NEAR THE FL-GA BORDER WITH LOW LVL
SE-SSE FLOW VEERING QUICKLY TO THE S-SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SHOULD SEE
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE
MID LVL S/W AND DISTURBANCES ALOFT TRACKING EASTWARD TWD THE FL WEST
COAST IN THE MORNING AND ACROSS THE PENINSULA BY AFTERNOON. MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN A CONCERN WITH
STORMS WITH SUCH HIGH MOISTURE LEVELS. FLOODING MAY OCCUR IN AREAS
THAT HAVE SEEN HEAVY RAIN THE PAST WEEK WITH ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAINFALL. HAVE TRIMMED HIGH TEMPS FROM GUID A FEW DEGS MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 80S.

TUESDAY...THE MID LVL S/W WILL BE PUSHING OFF THE GA/SC COAST WITH
SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFFSHORE. TRAILING DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS
CENTRAL FL WITH WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW FROM 25-30 KNOTS FROM THE
WEST SHOULD AGAIN SET UP HIGH RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE DAY. WILL
KEEP POPS AROUND 60 PCT WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING QUICKLY
TOWARD THE EAST COAST AND ATLC WATERS. DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF SFC
HEATING COULD SEE SOME STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS. IF STORMS
DEVELOP IN AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN RECENT HEAVY RAIN THERE WILL BE A
CONCERN FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING AGAIN ON TUE.

WED-THU...SOMEWHAT LOWER RAIN CHANCES ARE FORECAST FOR MID WEEK
MAINLY IN THE 30-40 PCT RANGE AS A SFC FRONT MOVES SOUTH TOWARD LAKE
OKEECHOBEE BY WED NIGHT INTO THU. SHOULD SEE SOME DRYING TO THE
AIRMASS AS LOW LVL WINDS BECOME N-NE WED INTO THU. GFS INDICATES
MORE DRYING BUT ECMWF DOES ALSO BEGIN TO SHOW SOME DRIER AIR ACROSS
NRN SECTIONS BY LATE WED/THU. HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN
ACROSS FAR SRN SECTIONS AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE FOR LATE WEEK.

FRI-SAT...ANOTHER FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE AREA LATE FRI
INTO SATURDAY WITH SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES FROM THE 00Z GFS TO THE
FASTER ECMWF. WILL LEAN TWD THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER GFS WITH HIGHEST
RAIN CHANCES SATURDAY AROUND 50 PCT. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE A
COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO E CENTRAL FL FOR SUNDAY WITH
HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...
SCT SHRA OVER LCL ATLC MOVING INTO COAST WITH ISOLD SHRA REACHING
INTO INTERIOR THROUGH 14Z THIS MORNING. A FEW LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WILL BRING TEMPO IFR CIGS/VSBYS. AFTER 15Z...E-SE FLOW
SHIFTING SCT SHRA/ISOLD TSRA INTO INTERIOR SITES. MOST ACTIVITY WEST
OF ORLANDO AREA TAF SITES AFTER 21Z...BUT ACTIVITY MAY LINGER VCNTY
KLEE THROUGH 00Z.

&&

.MARINE...

CURRENT-THIS AFTERNOON...THE NOAA...SCRIPPS AND CMAN BUOYS IN THE
AREA WERE RECORDING EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 TO 12 KNOTS AND 2
TO 3 FOOT SEAS OUT TO 20NM AND TO 5 FEET AT BUOY  010 AT 120NM OFF
NEW SMYRNA BEACH.

EASTERLY FLOW TO PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST.

PREVIOUS MARINE DISCUSSION.

TODAY-TONIGHT...STEADY EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW 10-15KTS HAS DEVELOPED
OVER MOST OF THE WATERS THOUGH WINDS NEAR THE VOLUSIA COAST STILL
REMAIN STUBBORNLY BACKED NORTH-NORTHEAST. MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE
DIFFICULTY RESOLVING THIS WEDGE AND THOSE THAT DO CONTINUE TO VEER
WINDS TO THE EAST RATHER QUICKLY EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER GIVEN
THE FORECASTED TREND FOR SYNOPTIC FLOW TO VEER MORE SOUTHEAST WITH
TIME...THINK THIS AREA WILL FINALLY JOIN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN LATER
TODAY. HOWEVER EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN A FEW DEGREES MORE BACKED THAN
THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS. SCATTERED ATLANTIC SHOWERS CONTINUE
WITH A FEW STORMS POSSIBLE. SEAS 3-4FT WITH DOMINANT PERIODS 7-8SEC
EARLY BECOMING 9SEC THIS EVENING.

SE WINDS EARLY MONDAY WILL VEER QUICKLY TO THE S/SW IN THE AFTERNOON
AS SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. ON TUESDAY...WESTERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER DAY WITH HIGH
RAIN CHANCES AND POSSIBLY GUSTY WINDS WITH QUICK EASTWARD MOVING
STORMS. SEAS MON INTO TUE  NEAR 3 FT NEAR SHORE TO 4 FT OFFSHORE.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE WATERS INTO
MID WEEK WITH NORTHERLY FLOW WED VEERING TO NE TO E INTO LATE WEEK.
SEAS EXPECTED 2-3 FT NEAR SHORE TO 3-4 OFFSHORE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  87  75  88  75 /  40  20  60  50
MCO  90  74  89  74 /  60  30  60  40
MLB  88  77  88  75 /  30  20  60  50
VRB  87  75  89  75 /  30  20  60  50
LEE  89  75  89  74 /  60  40  60  40
SFB  90  75  89  75 /  60  30  60  40
ORL  89  75  89  75 /  60  30  60  40
FPR  87  74  89  74 /  30  20  50  50

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

IMPACT WX...SPRATT
FORECASTS...WIMMER







000
FXUS62 KMLB 280736
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
335 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON...
...INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FL MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED WITH STORMS...

TODAY-TONIGHT...MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG THE EASTERN US WILL
SLIDE SLOWLY SOUTH AND EAST TODAY...BRINGING STEERING FLOW AROUND TO
THE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE THERE REMAINS SOME HINT OF THE
LOW LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE ATLANTIC JUST TO THE EAST...FOR
THE MOST PART THE FLOW HAS BECOME STEADILY EAST ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF
THE HIGH STRETCHING ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND MID-ATLANTIC.

CIRA/AMSU WATER VAPOR SAT SHOWS DRIER PWAT AIR FINALLY ENCROACHING
ON EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA THIS MORNING. PWATS SHOULD DROP
FROM THE JUICY 2.2-2.3" RANGE WE`VE BEEN IN FOR MOST OF THE WEEK TO
A STILL MOIST BUT MORE REASONABLE 1.9-2.0".

COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY WITH THE
ONGOING SCT ATLANTIC AND COASTAL SHOWERS THIS MORNING TRANSLATING
QUICKLY INLAND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. POPS 30 PERCENT ALONG THE
COAST...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF VOLUSIA COUNTY WHERE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE LINGERS AND A FEW ADDITIONAL BANDS MAY SET UP ALONG THE
COAST...OR FURTHER NORTH INTO FLAGLER LIKE FRIDAY AND SAT. POPS
40-50 PERCENT FOR THE INTERIOR WITH HIGHEST COVERAGE AT 60 PERCENT
WEST OF I-4 AND LAKE COUNTY WHERE VEERING FLOW WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND
STORMS FROM RACING QUITE AS QUICKLY WEST AS YESTERDAY. AS WITH THE
PAST WEEK...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THREAT CONTINUES...MAINLY OVER THE
INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON.

ISOLATED-WIDELY SCATTERED ATLANTIC SHOWERS OVERNIGHT WITH A FEW
BRUSHING THE COAST FROM BREVARD SOUTHWARDS.

MONDAY...DEEP MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO E CENTRAL FL WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES INCREASING TO 2.1 TO 2.3 INCHES AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS AL/GA AND N FL. 00Z GFS INDICATE SFC LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK EASTWARD NEAR THE FL-GA BORDER WITH LOW LVL
SE-SSE FLOW VEERING QUICKLY TO THE S-SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SHOULD SEE
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE
MID LVL S/W AND DISTURBANCES ALOFT TRACKING EASTWARD TWD THE FL WEST
COAST IN THE MORNING AND ACROSS THE PENINSULA BY AFTERNOON. MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN A CONCERN WITH
STORMS WITH SUCH HIGH MOISTURE LEVELS. FLOODING MAY OCCUR IN AREAS
THAT HAVE SEEN HEAVY RAIN THE PAST WEEK WITH ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAINFALL. HAVE TRIMMED HIGH TEMPS FROM GUID A FEW DEGS MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 80S.

TUESDAY...THE MID LVL S/W WILL BE PUSHING OFF THE GA/SC COAST WITH
SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFFSHORE. TRAILING DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS
CENTRAL FL WITH WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW FROM 25-30 KNOTS FROM THE
WEST SHOULD AGAIN SET UP HIGH RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE DAY. WILL
KEEP POPS AROUND 60 PCT WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING QUICKLY
TOWARD THE EAST COAST AND ATLC WATERS. DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF SFC
HEATING COULD SEE SOME STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS. IF STORMS
DEVELOP IN AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN RECENT HEAVY RAIN THERE WILL BE A
CONCERN FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING AGAIN ON TUE.

WED-THU...SOMEWHAT LOWER RAIN CHANCES ARE FORECAST FOR MID WEEK
MAINLY IN THE 30-40 PCT RANGE AS A SFC FRONT MOVES SOUTH TOWARD LAKE
OKEECHOBEE BY WED NIGHT INTO THU. SHOULD SEE SOME DRYING TO THE
AIRMASS AS LOW LVL WINDS BECOME N-NE WED INTO THU. GFS INDICATES
MORE DRYING BUT ECMWF DOES ALSO BEGIN TO SHOW SOME DRIER AIR ACROSS
NRN SECTIONS BY LATE WED/THU. HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN
ACROSS FAR SRN SECTIONS AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE FOR LATE WEEK.

FRI-SAT...ANOTHER FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE AREA LATE FRI
INTO SATURDAY WITH SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES FROM THE 00Z GFS TO THE
FASTER ECMWF. WILL LEAN TWD THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER GFS WITH HIGHEST
RAIN CHANCES SATURDAY AROUND 50 PCT. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE A
COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO E CENTRAL FL FOR SUNDAY WITH
HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...
WDLY SCT SHRA OVER LCL ATLC MOVING INTO COAST WITH ISOLD SHRA
REACHING INTO INTERIOR THROUGH 14Z THIS MORNING. A FEW LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WILL BRING TEMPO IFR CIGS/VSBYS. AFTER 15Z...E-SE FLOW
SHIFTING SCT SHRA/ISOLD TSRA INTO INTERIOR SITES. MOST ACTIVITY WEST
OF ORLANDO AREA TAF SITES AFTER 21Z...BUT ACTIVITY MAY LINGER VCNTY
KLEE THROUGH 00Z.

&&

.MARINE...

TODAY-TONIGHT...STEADY EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW 10-15KTS HAS DEVELOPED
OVER MOST OF THE WATERS THOUGH WINDS NEAR THE VOLUSIA COAST STILL
REMAIN STUBBORNLY BACKED NORTH-NORTHEAST. MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE
DIFFICULTY RESOLVING THIS WEDGE AND THOSE THAT DO CONTINUE TO VEER
WINDS TO THE EAST RATHER QUICKLY EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER GIVEN
THE FORECASTED TREND FOR SYNOPTIC FLOW TO VEER MORE SOUTHEAST WITH
TIME...THINK THIS AREA WILL FINALLY JOIN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN LATER
TODAY. HOWEVER EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN A FEW DEGREES MORE BACKED THAN
THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS. SCATTERED ATLANTIC SHOWERS CONTINUE
WITH A FEW STORMS POSSIBLE. SEAS 3-4FT WITH DOMINANT PERIODS 7-8SEC
EARLY BECOMING 9SEC THIS EVENING.

SE WINDS EARLY MONDAY WILL VEER QUICKLY TO THE S/SW IN THE AFTERNOON
AS SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. ON TUESDAY...WESTERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER DAY WITH HIGH
RAIN CHANCES AND POSSIBLY GUSTY WINDS WITH QUICK EASTWARD MOVING
STORMS. SEAS MON INTO TUE  NEAR 3 FT NEAR SHORE TO 4 FT OFFSHORE.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE WATERS INTO
MID WEEK WITH NORTHERLY FLOW WED VEERING TO NE TO E INTO LATE WEEK.
SEAS EXPECTED 2-3 FT NEAR SHORE TO 3-4 OFFSHORE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  87  75  88  75 /  40  20  60  50
MCO  90  74  89  74 /  60  30  60  40
MLB  88  77  88  75 /  30  20  60  50
VRB  87  75  89  75 /  30  20  60  50
LEE  89  75  89  74 /  60  40  60  40
SFB  90  75  89  75 /  60  30  60  40
ORL  89  75  89  75 /  60  30  60  40
FPR  87  74  89  74 /  30  20  50  50

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...MOSES
LONG TERM....VOLKMER







000
FXUS62 KMLB 280247 AAA
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1045 PM EDT SAT SEP 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...

STREAMERS COMING OFF OF GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND WITHIN MOIST E/SE FLOW
WILL PRODUCE A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO PUSH ONSHORE THE
THE MARTIN AND ST LUCIE COASTS OVERNIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL
ACCOMPANY THE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS BUT MOST OF THE LIGHTNING
SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE ATLC/GULF STREAM. IN ADDITION...WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY/CONVERGENT ZONE REMAINS DRAPED E-W ACROSS NORTH
VOLUSIA/LAKE COUNTIES. AS A RESULT...HAVE ALSO RAISED POPS FOR THE
UPPER VOLUSIA COAST FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MORE ORGANIZED
SHOWERS TO FORM INTO BANDING FEATURES AND PUSH ONSHORE. THIS THREAT
LOOKS GREATER OVER FLAGLER COUNTY BUT COULD CLIP NE VOLUSIA COAST.
SO HAVE DRAWN A LOW FLOOD THREAT IN THE UPDATED HWO/GHWO.
ELSEWHERE...ALONG THE BREVARD AND INDIAN RIVER COASTS...ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE MORE ISOLATED. MOST INTERIOR SECTIONS WILL REMAIN DRY.

SUN/SUN NIGHT (PREVIOUS)...TREND TOWARD LOWER PWATS FROM THE
SATURATED AIR MASS OF THE PAST WEEK LOOKS TO CONTINUE...AT LEAST FOR
MORE DAY. CONTINUED LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW CARRIES VERY HIGH PWAT
AIR MASS ACROSS WRN FLORIDA AND THE ADJACENT GOMEX WITH WEAK MID
LEVEL RIDGING OVERHEAD. EXPECT THIS WILL SPELL LOWER OVERALL
COVERAGE...WITH HIGHEST CHANCES FARTHER INLAND...NOT UNLIKE TODAY.
WENT WITH A 30-40-50 POP DISTRIBUTION WITH HIGHEST NUMBERS ACROSS
LAKE COUNTY.

SMALL CHANCE FOR COASTAL SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...MOST LIKELY LIMITED TO
AREAS FROM BREVARD SWD GIVEN THE VEERING LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILE.


&&

.AVIATION...
KEPT VCSH FOR THE ENTIRE KDAB-KSUA CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT AS A FEW
SHOWERS COULD IMPACT THESE SITES.

&&

.MARINE...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO CURRENT COASTAL WATERS FORECAST.
SUN-THU...ESE TO SE WINDS NEAR 10KT SUN-SUN NIGHT WILL VEER TO THE
SOUTH BY EARLY MON...AND SW BY TUESDAY AND WSW-W AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COOL FRONT ON WED. AS THE FRONT HANGS UP AND BECOME
MORE DIFFUSE FROM MID TO LATE WEEK...WINDS WILL SLACKEN AND BECOME
MORE VARIABLE. SEAS 3-4FT THROUGH MONDAY...SUBSIDING TO 2-3FT FROM
MONDAY NIGHT ONWARD. EXPECT INCREASING COVERAGE OF OFFSHORE MOVING
SHOWERS/STORMS MON-TUE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ST JOHNS RIVER AT ASTOR REMAINS JUST ABOVE ACTION STAGE THIS
EVENING. THE NORTHERLY WIND FLOW THAT WAS HELPING TO CONTRIBUTE TO
THE HIGH RIVER LEVELS ON THURSDAY HAS ABATED...HOWEVER...HEAVY RAIN
OVER THE BASIN NEAR ASTOR AND ESPECIALLY JUST UPSTREAM (TO THE SOUTH)
TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE RIVER LEVEL ELEVATED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  75  86  75  87 /  20  30  20  60
MCO  74  90  74  89 /  20  40  20  60
MLB  76  86  75  88 /  20  30  20  60
VRB  75  88  74  88 /  20  30  20  60
LEE  75  90  74  88 /  20  40  30  60
SFB  75  90  74  90 /  20  40  20  60
ORL  76  90  75  90 /  20  40  20  60
FPR  75  87  74  87 /  20  30  20  50

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

KELLY/SPRATT










000
FXUS62 KMLB 280247 AAA
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1045 PM EDT SAT SEP 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...

STREAMERS COMING OFF OF GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND WITHIN MOIST E/SE FLOW
WILL PRODUCE A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO PUSH ONSHORE THE
THE MARTIN AND ST LUCIE COASTS OVERNIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL
ACCOMPANY THE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS BUT MOST OF THE LIGHTNING
SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE ATLC/GULF STREAM. IN ADDITION...WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY/CONVERGENT ZONE REMAINS DRAPED E-W ACROSS NORTH
VOLUSIA/LAKE COUNTIES. AS A RESULT...HAVE ALSO RAISED POPS FOR THE
UPPER VOLUSIA COAST FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MORE ORGANIZED
SHOWERS TO FORM INTO BANDING FEATURES AND PUSH ONSHORE. THIS THREAT
LOOKS GREATER OVER FLAGLER COUNTY BUT COULD CLIP NE VOLUSIA COAST.
SO HAVE DRAWN A LOW FLOOD THREAT IN THE UPDATED HWO/GHWO.
ELSEWHERE...ALONG THE BREVARD AND INDIAN RIVER COASTS...ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE MORE ISOLATED. MOST INTERIOR SECTIONS WILL REMAIN DRY.

SUN/SUN NIGHT (PREVIOUS)...TREND TOWARD LOWER PWATS FROM THE
SATURATED AIR MASS OF THE PAST WEEK LOOKS TO CONTINUE...AT LEAST FOR
MORE DAY. CONTINUED LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW CARRIES VERY HIGH PWAT
AIR MASS ACROSS WRN FLORIDA AND THE ADJACENT GOMEX WITH WEAK MID
LEVEL RIDGING OVERHEAD. EXPECT THIS WILL SPELL LOWER OVERALL
COVERAGE...WITH HIGHEST CHANCES FARTHER INLAND...NOT UNLIKE TODAY.
WENT WITH A 30-40-50 POP DISTRIBUTION WITH HIGHEST NUMBERS ACROSS
LAKE COUNTY.

SMALL CHANCE FOR COASTAL SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...MOST LIKELY LIMITED TO
AREAS FROM BREVARD SWD GIVEN THE VEERING LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILE.


&&

.AVIATION...
KEPT VCSH FOR THE ENTIRE KDAB-KSUA CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT AS A FEW
SHOWERS COULD IMPACT THESE SITES.

&&

.MARINE...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO CURRENT COASTAL WATERS FORECAST.
SUN-THU...ESE TO SE WINDS NEAR 10KT SUN-SUN NIGHT WILL VEER TO THE
SOUTH BY EARLY MON...AND SW BY TUESDAY AND WSW-W AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COOL FRONT ON WED. AS THE FRONT HANGS UP AND BECOME
MORE DIFFUSE FROM MID TO LATE WEEK...WINDS WILL SLACKEN AND BECOME
MORE VARIABLE. SEAS 3-4FT THROUGH MONDAY...SUBSIDING TO 2-3FT FROM
MONDAY NIGHT ONWARD. EXPECT INCREASING COVERAGE OF OFFSHORE MOVING
SHOWERS/STORMS MON-TUE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ST JOHNS RIVER AT ASTOR REMAINS JUST ABOVE ACTION STAGE THIS
EVENING. THE NORTHERLY WIND FLOW THAT WAS HELPING TO CONTRIBUTE TO
THE HIGH RIVER LEVELS ON THURSDAY HAS ABATED...HOWEVER...HEAVY RAIN
OVER THE BASIN NEAR ASTOR AND ESPECIALLY JUST UPSTREAM (TO THE SOUTH)
TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE RIVER LEVEL ELEVATED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  75  86  75  87 /  20  30  20  60
MCO  74  90  74  89 /  20  40  20  60
MLB  76  86  75  88 /  20  30  20  60
VRB  75  88  74  88 /  20  30  20  60
LEE  75  90  74  88 /  20  40  30  60
SFB  75  90  74  90 /  20  40  20  60
ORL  76  90  75  90 /  20  40  20  60
FPR  75  87  74  87 /  20  30  20  50

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

KELLY/SPRATT











000
FXUS62 KMLB 271934
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
330 PM EDT SAT SEP 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...

...BREAK FROM THE VERY HIGH SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE TOMORROW BEFORE
HIGHER RAIN CHANCES RETURN FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...

...RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO DROP AGAIN NEXT WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY...

CURRENT THROUGH TONIGHT...CONVECTION FOCUSING NEAR...BUT A LITTLE
FARTHER NORTH/INLAND...FROM WHERE IT CONCENTRATED FRIDAY...PRETTY
MUCH ALONG AND N/W OF I-4. AS EXPECTED..ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY
HAS DEVELOPED IN THE STILL MOIST/HIGH PWAT AIR MASS BEHIND THE FAST
MOVING ECSB...BUT THIS CONVECTION IS GENERALLY LOW-TOPPED/SMALL AND
MOVING STEADILY WNW @10-15MPH SO ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS BEHIND
THE LEAD BAND OF STORMS ARE RATHER LIGHT.

CONSEQUENTLY...WILL BE LOWERING POPS PRIOR TO 00Z...BUT WILL STILL
BE RUNNING WITH A PRE-FIRST PERIOD TO ADDRESS THE ONGOING DIURNAL
CONVECTION OVER LAKE COUNTY...AND ADJACENT AREAS NEAR I-4. SMALL
THREAT FOR COASTAL SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...BUT BASED ON
UPSTREAM SATELLITE AND RADAR TREND..CU FIELD LOOKS OPEN CELL RATHER
THAN CONVECTIVELY BANDED...AND THEREFORE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE SPOTTY
AND LIMITED TO COASTAL AREAS WITH LIMITED ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...TREND TOWARD LOWER PWATS FROM THE SATURATED
AIR MASS OF THE PAST WEEK LOOKS TO CONTINUE...AT LEAST FOR MORE
DAY. CONTINUED LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW CARRIES VERY HIGH PWAT AIR
MASS ACROSS WRN FLORIDA AND THE ADJACENT GOMEX WITH WEAK MID LEVEL
RIDGING OVERHEAD. EXPECT THIS WILL SPELL LOWER OVERALL COVERAGE...
WITH HIGHEST CHANCES FARTHER INLAND...NOT UNLIKE TODAY. WENT WITH
A 30-40-50 POP DISTRIBUTION WITH HIGHEST NUMBERS ACROSS LAKE COUNTY.

SMALL CHANCE FOR COASTAL SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...MOST LIKELY LIMITED TO
AREAS FROM BREVARD SWD GIVEN THE VEERING LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILE.


(PREVIOUS EXTENDED DISCUSSION)

MONDAY...THE MID LVL S/W TROUGH ACROSS AL WILL ALLOW LOW LVL FLOW TO
VEER TO THE S AND SW ACROSS E CENTRAL FL WITH DEEP MOISTURE
RETURNING OVER THE AREA FROM THE ERN GULF. GFS INDICATES MID TO
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TRACKING TWD THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON
WHICH SHOULD ALLOW A HEALTHY COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS
TRACKING WEST TO EAST ACROSS CENTRAL FL TOWARD THE ATLC BY LATE IN
THE DAY. WILL KEEP POPS AROUND 60 PCT ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA BUT GO
SLIGHTLY LOWER ALONG THE ST LUCIE/MARTIN COAST.

MON NIGHT...SFC LOW WILL APPROACH WITH GA WITH A FEED OF DEEP
MOISTURE ACROSS CENTRAL FL. WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN THE SCATTERED
RANGE WITH THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS CONTINUING INTO THE LATE NIGHT
HOURS.

TUESDAY...THE MID LVL S/W TROUGH WILL BE ACROSS GA WITH DEEP
MOISTURE AND SW-W STEERING FLOW ALLOWING SHOWERS AND STORMS TO TRACK
EASTWARD ACROSS E CENTRAL FL MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. GFS
MODEL QPF VALUES SHOULD SUPPORT POPS ABOVE MOS VALUES AND WILL GO
AGAIN AROUND 60 PCT WITH THE CHANCE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH
SHOWERS AND STORMS.

WED-SAT...THE MID LVL S/W TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLC COAST
WED/THU WITH MID LVL WNW FLOW AND LOWERING MOISTURE LEVELS ACROSS
THE NRN PENINSULA. WILL KEEP POPS IN THE SCATTERED RANGE FOR LATE
WEEK WITH THE LOWEST COVERAGE LIKELY ON THU WITH WESTERLY LOW LVL
FLOW AND PWATS LOWERING TO 1.5 TO 1.7 INCHES ACROSS FAR NRN
SECTIONS. A DEEPER MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVED TWD THE OHIO
VALLEY AND SE STATES FOR FRI INTO SAT. SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN
PREFRONTAL MOISTURE AND SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT TO START THE
WEEKEND WITH RAIN CHANCES AGAIN INCREASING BY SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA/TS NEAR AND JUST WEST OF KSFB-KORL-KMCO-KISM WILL
IMPACT KLEE VCNTY THROUGH ABOUT 22Z...WITH ACTIVITY WINDING DOWN
PRETTY QUICKLY FROM 23Z ONWARD. KEPT VCSH FOR THE ENTIRE KDAB-KSUA
CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT AS A FEW SHOWERS COULD IMPACT THESE SITES.

&&

.MARINE...
SUN-THU...ESE TO SE WINDS NEAR 10KT SUN-SUN NIGHT WILL VEER TO THE
SOUTH BY EARLY MON...AND SW BY TUESDAY AND WSW-W AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COOL FRONT ON WED. AS THE FRONT HANGS UP AND BECOME
MORE DIFFUSE FROM MID TO LATE WEEK...WINDS WILL SLACKEN AND BECOME
MORE VARIABLE. SEAS 3-4FT THROUGH MONDAY...SUBSIDING TO 2-3FT FROM
MONDAY NIGHT ONWARD. EXPECT INCREASING COVERAGE OF OFFSHORE MOVING
SHOWERS/STORMS MON-TUE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ST JOHNS RIVER AT ASTOR REMAINS JUST ABOVE ACTION STAGE THIS
MORNING. THE NORTHERLY WIND FLOW THAT WAS HELPING TO CONTRIBUTE TO
THE HIGH RIVER LEVELS ON THURSDAY HAS ABATED...HOWEVER...HEAVY RAIN
OVER THE BASIN NEAR ASTOR WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE RIVER LEVEL
ELEVATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL LAST EVENING HAS LEVELED OFF THE DROP ALONG
SHINGLE CREEK NEAR CAMPBELL THIS MORNING...BUT RISES HAVE BEEN
MINIMAL AND THE RIVER REMAINS AROUND 1FT BELOW ACTION STAGE. THIS
AREA IS MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO FASTER RISES THAN THE ST JOHNS...SO WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND RUN LOCAL MODEL AS NEEDED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

THE LITTLE WEKIVA RIVER IN WESTERN SEMINOLE COUNTY EXPERIENCED A
RAPID RISE FRIDAY EVENING AND APPROACHED HOMES IN THE SPRINGS
SUBDIVISION. BUT THE RIVER LEVEL HAS SINCE STABILIZED REDUCING THE
THREAT TO HOMES.

ELSEWHERE...ANY HEAVY RAINFALL ON ALREADY SATURATED GROUND MAY
AGGRAVATE ANY ONGOING STANDING WATER ISSUES AND LEAD TO ADDITIONAL
MINOR FLOODING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  75  86  75  87 /  20  30  20  60
MCO  74  90  74  89 /  20  40  20  60
MLB  76  86  75  88 /  20  30  20  60
VRB  75  88  74  88 /  20  30  20  60
LEE  75  90  74  88 /  20  40  30  60
SFB  75  90  74  90 /  20  40  20  60
ORL  76  90  75  90 /  20  40  20  60
FPR  75  87  74  87 /  20  30  20  50

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CRISTALDI
LONG TERM....WIMMER
AVIATION...CRISTALDI









000
FXUS62 KMLB 271934
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
330 PM EDT SAT SEP 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...

...BREAK FROM THE VERY HIGH SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE TOMORROW BEFORE
HIGHER RAIN CHANCES RETURN FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...

...RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO DROP AGAIN NEXT WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY...

CURRENT THROUGH TONIGHT...CONVECTION FOCUSING NEAR...BUT A LITTLE
FARTHER NORTH/INLAND...FROM WHERE IT CONCENTRATED FRIDAY...PRETTY
MUCH ALONG AND N/W OF I-4. AS EXPECTED..ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY
HAS DEVELOPED IN THE STILL MOIST/HIGH PWAT AIR MASS BEHIND THE FAST
MOVING ECSB...BUT THIS CONVECTION IS GENERALLY LOW-TOPPED/SMALL AND
MOVING STEADILY WNW @10-15MPH SO ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS BEHIND
THE LEAD BAND OF STORMS ARE RATHER LIGHT.

CONSEQUENTLY...WILL BE LOWERING POPS PRIOR TO 00Z...BUT WILL STILL
BE RUNNING WITH A PRE-FIRST PERIOD TO ADDRESS THE ONGOING DIURNAL
CONVECTION OVER LAKE COUNTY...AND ADJACENT AREAS NEAR I-4. SMALL
THREAT FOR COASTAL SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...BUT BASED ON
UPSTREAM SATELLITE AND RADAR TREND..CU FIELD LOOKS OPEN CELL RATHER
THAN CONVECTIVELY BANDED...AND THEREFORE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE SPOTTY
AND LIMITED TO COASTAL AREAS WITH LIMITED ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...TREND TOWARD LOWER PWATS FROM THE SATURATED
AIR MASS OF THE PAST WEEK LOOKS TO CONTINUE...AT LEAST FOR MORE
DAY. CONTINUED LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW CARRIES VERY HIGH PWAT AIR
MASS ACROSS WRN FLORIDA AND THE ADJACENT GOMEX WITH WEAK MID LEVEL
RIDGING OVERHEAD. EXPECT THIS WILL SPELL LOWER OVERALL COVERAGE...
WITH HIGHEST CHANCES FARTHER INLAND...NOT UNLIKE TODAY. WENT WITH
A 30-40-50 POP DISTRIBUTION WITH HIGHEST NUMBERS ACROSS LAKE COUNTY.

SMALL CHANCE FOR COASTAL SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...MOST LIKELY LIMITED TO
AREAS FROM BREVARD SWD GIVEN THE VEERING LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILE.


(PREVIOUS EXTENDED DISCUSSION)

MONDAY...THE MID LVL S/W TROUGH ACROSS AL WILL ALLOW LOW LVL FLOW TO
VEER TO THE S AND SW ACROSS E CENTRAL FL WITH DEEP MOISTURE
RETURNING OVER THE AREA FROM THE ERN GULF. GFS INDICATES MID TO
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TRACKING TWD THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON
WHICH SHOULD ALLOW A HEALTHY COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS
TRACKING WEST TO EAST ACROSS CENTRAL FL TOWARD THE ATLC BY LATE IN
THE DAY. WILL KEEP POPS AROUND 60 PCT ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA BUT GO
SLIGHTLY LOWER ALONG THE ST LUCIE/MARTIN COAST.

MON NIGHT...SFC LOW WILL APPROACH WITH GA WITH A FEED OF DEEP
MOISTURE ACROSS CENTRAL FL. WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN THE SCATTERED
RANGE WITH THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS CONTINUING INTO THE LATE NIGHT
HOURS.

TUESDAY...THE MID LVL S/W TROUGH WILL BE ACROSS GA WITH DEEP
MOISTURE AND SW-W STEERING FLOW ALLOWING SHOWERS AND STORMS TO TRACK
EASTWARD ACROSS E CENTRAL FL MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. GFS
MODEL QPF VALUES SHOULD SUPPORT POPS ABOVE MOS VALUES AND WILL GO
AGAIN AROUND 60 PCT WITH THE CHANCE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH
SHOWERS AND STORMS.

WED-SAT...THE MID LVL S/W TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLC COAST
WED/THU WITH MID LVL WNW FLOW AND LOWERING MOISTURE LEVELS ACROSS
THE NRN PENINSULA. WILL KEEP POPS IN THE SCATTERED RANGE FOR LATE
WEEK WITH THE LOWEST COVERAGE LIKELY ON THU WITH WESTERLY LOW LVL
FLOW AND PWATS LOWERING TO 1.5 TO 1.7 INCHES ACROSS FAR NRN
SECTIONS. A DEEPER MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVED TWD THE OHIO
VALLEY AND SE STATES FOR FRI INTO SAT. SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN
PREFRONTAL MOISTURE AND SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT TO START THE
WEEKEND WITH RAIN CHANCES AGAIN INCREASING BY SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA/TS NEAR AND JUST WEST OF KSFB-KORL-KMCO-KISM WILL
IMPACT KLEE VCNTY THROUGH ABOUT 22Z...WITH ACTIVITY WINDING DOWN
PRETTY QUICKLY FROM 23Z ONWARD. KEPT VCSH FOR THE ENTIRE KDAB-KSUA
CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT AS A FEW SHOWERS COULD IMPACT THESE SITES.

&&

.MARINE...
SUN-THU...ESE TO SE WINDS NEAR 10KT SUN-SUN NIGHT WILL VEER TO THE
SOUTH BY EARLY MON...AND SW BY TUESDAY AND WSW-W AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COOL FRONT ON WED. AS THE FRONT HANGS UP AND BECOME
MORE DIFFUSE FROM MID TO LATE WEEK...WINDS WILL SLACKEN AND BECOME
MORE VARIABLE. SEAS 3-4FT THROUGH MONDAY...SUBSIDING TO 2-3FT FROM
MONDAY NIGHT ONWARD. EXPECT INCREASING COVERAGE OF OFFSHORE MOVING
SHOWERS/STORMS MON-TUE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ST JOHNS RIVER AT ASTOR REMAINS JUST ABOVE ACTION STAGE THIS
MORNING. THE NORTHERLY WIND FLOW THAT WAS HELPING TO CONTRIBUTE TO
THE HIGH RIVER LEVELS ON THURSDAY HAS ABATED...HOWEVER...HEAVY RAIN
OVER THE BASIN NEAR ASTOR WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE RIVER LEVEL
ELEVATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL LAST EVENING HAS LEVELED OFF THE DROP ALONG
SHINGLE CREEK NEAR CAMPBELL THIS MORNING...BUT RISES HAVE BEEN
MINIMAL AND THE RIVER REMAINS AROUND 1FT BELOW ACTION STAGE. THIS
AREA IS MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO FASTER RISES THAN THE ST JOHNS...SO WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND RUN LOCAL MODEL AS NEEDED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

THE LITTLE WEKIVA RIVER IN WESTERN SEMINOLE COUNTY EXPERIENCED A
RAPID RISE FRIDAY EVENING AND APPROACHED HOMES IN THE SPRINGS
SUBDIVISION. BUT THE RIVER LEVEL HAS SINCE STABILIZED REDUCING THE
THREAT TO HOMES.

ELSEWHERE...ANY HEAVY RAINFALL ON ALREADY SATURATED GROUND MAY
AGGRAVATE ANY ONGOING STANDING WATER ISSUES AND LEAD TO ADDITIONAL
MINOR FLOODING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  75  86  75  87 /  20  30  20  60
MCO  74  90  74  89 /  20  40  20  60
MLB  76  86  75  88 /  20  30  20  60
VRB  75  88  74  88 /  20  30  20  60
LEE  75  90  74  88 /  20  40  30  60
SFB  75  90  74  90 /  20  40  20  60
ORL  76  90  75  90 /  20  40  20  60
FPR  75  87  74  87 /  20  30  20  50

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CRISTALDI
LONG TERM....WIMMER
AVIATION...CRISTALDI










000
FXUS62 KMLB 271440
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1030 AM EDT SAT SEP 27 2014

.UPDATE...

CURRENT...QSTNRY FRONT HAS LIFTED A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH INTO NORTH
FL THIS MORNING...YIELDING MORE BREAKS OF SUNSHINE AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST...AND EAST OF LAKE COUNTY ATTM. PGRAD HAS FIRMED UP
A LITTLE BETWEEN THE LARGE HIGH TO THE NORTH AND BROAD LOW PRES FROM
THE WRN CARIBBEAN INTO THE GOMEX. THIS IS SEEN IN THE MORNING RAOBS
AND LOW CLOUD MOTIONS ON VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY. AFTER A FEW SHOWERS
BANDS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVERNIGHT...ACTIVITY HAS BECOME A
BIT MORE SPOTTY NEAR THE COAST AND OFFSHORE OVER THE ATLANTIC. PWATS
ARE AOA 2.2" ACROSS THE ENTIRETY OF THE PENINSULA..WITH ONLY SLIGHT
DRYING NOTED IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM ON THE CIRA TPW PRODUCT.

REST OF TODAY...EXPECT A PRETTY ACTIVE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
WITH A FASTER WWD/INLAND PUSH TO (SLIGHTLY) MARINE MODIFIED AIR.
STILL...GIVEN THE DEEP MOISTURE PROFILE...CAN`T HELP BUT FEEL THAT
REDEVELOPMENT OF AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO THE AFTERNOON
BEHIND WHAT SHOULD BE A RATHER DIFFUSE ECSB BOUNDARY IS A GOOD CALL.
WITH BOTH THE LOW AND STEERING LEVEL WINDS ESE-SE AT ABOUT 10KT...
DON`T SEE MUCH TO CHANGE WITH POPS RAGING FROM 30-40 ALONG THE SPACE
AND TREASURE COASTS TO 50-60 FARTHER NORTH AND INLAND. WHILE BANDS
OF DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD SHOW STEADY W-NW MOTION..LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS STILL A BIG CONCERN... GIVEN JUST HOW SATURATED GROUND WATER
CONDITIONS ARE OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...BEST CHANCE FOR TEMPO SHRA AND ISOLD TS ALONG THE DAB-SUA
CORRIDOR SHOULD BE THROUGH ABOUT 18Z...WITH HIGHER COVERAGE SHIFTING
INLAND WITH BEST CHANCE MCO-SFB WWD 18Z-22Z...GIVE OR TAKE.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY IN THE 3-4FT RANGE (2 TO 2.5FT
RIGHT ALONG THE COAST) AS A GENTLE ESE BREEZE STEADILY FRESHENS TO
MODERATE OVER THE NEXT H24. NO CHGS NEEDED.

&&

UPDATE/AVIATION...CRISTALDI
RADAR/IMPACT WX....VOLKMER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 AM EDT SAT SEP 27 2014/

SUNDAY...MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS LA/ARK WILL MOVE EAST TWD
MS/AL AS WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS NEAR THE NRN GULF COAST. SFC
TO H85 FLOW 10-15KT WILL ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS TO
MOVE ONSHORE IN THE MORNING AND CONCENTRATE ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND
WRN PORTION OF THE PENINSULA IN THE AFTERNOON. GFS PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE NOT AS HIGH AS RECENT DAYS...BUT STILL NEAR 1.9"
ALONG THE EAST COAST AND 2.0 INCHES ACROSS THE INTERIOR. WILL LEAN
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN GFS MOS POPS AROUND 40 PCT ALONG THE COAST AND
50 PCT ACROSS THE INTERIOR.  WITH ONSHORE FLOW AND NEAR SHORE WATER
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S HAVE DECREASED COASTAL HIGHS A
FEW DEGS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. SHOULD SEE UPPER 80 TO NEAR
90 OVER THE INTERIOR IF WE CAN GET SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER
BEFORE CONVECTION DEVELOPS BY AFTERNOON.

MONDAY...THE MID LVL S/W TROUGH ACROSS AL WILL ALLOW LOW LVL FLOW TO
VEER TO THE S AND SW ACROSS E CENTRAL FL WITH DEEP MOISTURE
RETURNING OVER THE AREA FROM THE ERN GULF. GFS INDICATES MID TO
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TRACKING TWD THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON
WHICH SHOULD ALLOW A HEALTHY COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS
TRACKING WEST TO EAST ACROSS CENTRAL FL TOWARD THE ATLC BY LATE IN
THE DAY. WILL KEEP POPS AROUND 60 PCT ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA BUT GO
SLIGHTLY LOWER ALONG THE ST LUCIE/MARTIN COAST.

MON NIGHT...SFC LOW WILL APPROACH WITH GA WITH A FEED OF DEEP
MOISTURE ACROSS CENTRAL FL. WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN THE SCATTERED
RANGE WITH THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS CONTINUING INTO THE LATE NIGHT
HOURS.

TUESDAY...THE MID LVL S/W TROUGH WILL BE ACROSS GA WITH DEEP
MOISTURE AND SW-W STEERING FLOW ALLOWING SHOWERS AND STORMS TO TRACK
EASTWARD ACROSS E CENTRAL FL MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. GFS
MODEL QPF VALUES SHOULD SUPPORT POPS ABOVE MOS VALUES AND WILL GO
AGAIN AROUND 60 PCT WITH THE CHANCE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH
SHOWERS AND STORMS.

WED-SAT...THE MID LVL S/W TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLC COAST
WED/THU WITH MID LVL WNW FLOW AND LOWERING MOISTURE LEVELS ACROSS
THE NRN PENINSULA. WILL KEEP POPS IN THE SCATTERED RANGE FOR LATE
WEEK WITH THE LOWEST COVERAGE LIKELY ON THU WITH WESTERLY LOW LVL
FLOW AND PWATS LOWERING TO 1.5 TO 1.7 INCHES ACROSS FAR NRN
SECTIONS. A DEEPER MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVED TWD THE OHIO
VALLEY AND SE STATES FOR FRI INTO SAT. SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN
PREFRONTAL MOISTURE AND SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT TO START THE
WEEKEND WITH RAIN CHANCES AGAIN INCREASING BY SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
THROUGH 10Z...SCT SHRA AFFECTING TERMINALS FROM KMCO-KEVB NORTH AND
WEST ALONG WITH ATLC ACTIVITY BRUSHING COASTAL SITES. 10Z-15Z...SCT
SHRA/ISOLD TSRA AFFECTING COASTAL SITES MAINLY SOUTH OF KTIX. AFTER
15Z...SCT-NMRS SHRA/ISOLD TSRA MAINLY OVER INTERIOR WITH MOST
ACTIVITY SHIFTING WEST OF REGION AFTER 00Z. ATLC SHRA WILL WANE THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT A FEW MAY STILL MOVE INTO THE COAST THROUGH THE DAY.
ANOTHER ROUND OF ATLC SHRA OVERNIGHT. CIGS PREVAILING VFR OUTSIDE OF
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WITH TEMPO IFR IN HEAVIER SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY-TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL TROUGHINESS REMAINS PERSISTENT OVER LOCAL
WATERS WITH WINDS NEAR THE COAST NORTH OF THE CAPE STILL BACKED MORE
NORTH-NORTHWEST WHILE EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW HAS PICKED UP ELSEWHERE.
GIVEN THE PERSISTENCE OF THIS FLOW...HAVE KEPT WINDS BACKED ALONG
THE VOLUSIA COUNTY WATERS LONGER THAN MODELS SUGGEST INTO LATE
MORNING. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL BECOME EAST-SOUTHEAST 10-15KTS OVER
ALL THE WATERS BY THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. SEAS 3-4FT WITH
DOMINANT PERIODS AROUND 8 SEC. SCATTERED SHOWER AND ISOLD STORMS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

ESE WINDS SUNDAY AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL VEER TO SOUTHERLY MONDAY AND
S/SW BY TUESDAY WITH INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS MOVING
FROM THE MAINLAND TOWARD THE ATLANTIC FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. LIGHTER
WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR MID WEEK WITH A LOWER COVERAGE OF SHOWER AND
STORMS EXPECTED. SEAS MAINLY 3-4 FT SUNDAY-MONDAY DECREASING TO 2-3
FT BY MID WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ST JOHNS RIVER AT ASTOR REMAINS JUST ABOVE ACTION STAGE THIS
MORNING. THE NORTHERLY WIND FLOW THAT WAS HELPING TO CONTRIBUTE TO
THE HIGH RIVER LEVELS ON THURSDAY HAS ABATED...HOWEVER...HEAVY RAIN
OVER THE BASIN NEAR ASTOR WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE RIVER LEVEL
ELEVATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL LAST EVENING HAS LEVELED OFF THE DROP ALONG
SHINGLE CREEK NEAR CAMPBELL THIS MORNING...BUT RISES HAVE BEEN
MINIMAL AND THE RIVER REMAINS AROUND 1FT BELOW ACTION STAGE. THIS
AREA IS MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO FASTER RISES THAN THE ST JOHNS...SO WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND RUN LOCAL MODEL AS NEEDED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

THE LITTLE WEKIVA RIVER IN WESTERN SEMINOLE COUNTY EXPERIENCED A
RAPID RISE FRIDAY EVENING AND APPROACHED HOMES IN THE SPRINGS
SUBDIVISION. BUT THE RIVER LEVEL HAS SINCE STABILIZED REDUCING THE
THREAT TO HOMES.

ELSEWHERE...ANY HEAVY RAINFALL ON ALREADY SATURATED GROUND MAY
AGGRAVATE ANY ONGOING STANDING WATER ISSUES AND LEAD TO ADDITIONAL
MINOR FLOODING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  86  76  87  75 /  50  30  40  20
MCO  89  75  90  74 /  60  20  50  20
MLB  86  78  88  76 /  40  20  40  20
VRB  86  75  88  75 /  30  20  40  20
LEE  88  74  90  75 /  60  30  50  40
SFB  89  75  90  75 /  50  30  50  20
ORL  89  75  90  75 /  60  20  50  20
FPR  87  77  88  75 /  30  20  40  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KMLB 271440
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1030 AM EDT SAT SEP 27 2014

.UPDATE...

CURRENT...QSTNRY FRONT HAS LIFTED A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH INTO NORTH
FL THIS MORNING...YIELDING MORE BREAKS OF SUNSHINE AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST...AND EAST OF LAKE COUNTY ATTM. PGRAD HAS FIRMED UP
A LITTLE BETWEEN THE LARGE HIGH TO THE NORTH AND BROAD LOW PRES FROM
THE WRN CARIBBEAN INTO THE GOMEX. THIS IS SEEN IN THE MORNING RAOBS
AND LOW CLOUD MOTIONS ON VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY. AFTER A FEW SHOWERS
BANDS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVERNIGHT...ACTIVITY HAS BECOME A
BIT MORE SPOTTY NEAR THE COAST AND OFFSHORE OVER THE ATLANTIC. PWATS
ARE AOA 2.2" ACROSS THE ENTIRETY OF THE PENINSULA..WITH ONLY SLIGHT
DRYING NOTED IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM ON THE CIRA TPW PRODUCT.

REST OF TODAY...EXPECT A PRETTY ACTIVE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
WITH A FASTER WWD/INLAND PUSH TO (SLIGHTLY) MARINE MODIFIED AIR.
STILL...GIVEN THE DEEP MOISTURE PROFILE...CAN`T HELP BUT FEEL THAT
REDEVELOPMENT OF AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO THE AFTERNOON
BEHIND WHAT SHOULD BE A RATHER DIFFUSE ECSB BOUNDARY IS A GOOD CALL.
WITH BOTH THE LOW AND STEERING LEVEL WINDS ESE-SE AT ABOUT 10KT...
DON`T SEE MUCH TO CHANGE WITH POPS RAGING FROM 30-40 ALONG THE SPACE
AND TREASURE COASTS TO 50-60 FARTHER NORTH AND INLAND. WHILE BANDS
OF DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD SHOW STEADY W-NW MOTION..LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS STILL A BIG CONCERN... GIVEN JUST HOW SATURATED GROUND WATER
CONDITIONS ARE OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...BEST CHANCE FOR TEMPO SHRA AND ISOLD TS ALONG THE DAB-SUA
CORRIDOR SHOULD BE THROUGH ABOUT 18Z...WITH HIGHER COVERAGE SHIFTING
INLAND WITH BEST CHANCE MCO-SFB WWD 18Z-22Z...GIVE OR TAKE.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY IN THE 3-4FT RANGE (2 TO 2.5FT
RIGHT ALONG THE COAST) AS A GENTLE ESE BREEZE STEADILY FRESHENS TO
MODERATE OVER THE NEXT H24. NO CHGS NEEDED.

&&

UPDATE/AVIATION...CRISTALDI
RADAR/IMPACT WX....VOLKMER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 AM EDT SAT SEP 27 2014/

SUNDAY...MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS LA/ARK WILL MOVE EAST TWD
MS/AL AS WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS NEAR THE NRN GULF COAST. SFC
TO H85 FLOW 10-15KT WILL ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS TO
MOVE ONSHORE IN THE MORNING AND CONCENTRATE ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND
WRN PORTION OF THE PENINSULA IN THE AFTERNOON. GFS PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE NOT AS HIGH AS RECENT DAYS...BUT STILL NEAR 1.9"
ALONG THE EAST COAST AND 2.0 INCHES ACROSS THE INTERIOR. WILL LEAN
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN GFS MOS POPS AROUND 40 PCT ALONG THE COAST AND
50 PCT ACROSS THE INTERIOR.  WITH ONSHORE FLOW AND NEAR SHORE WATER
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S HAVE DECREASED COASTAL HIGHS A
FEW DEGS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. SHOULD SEE UPPER 80 TO NEAR
90 OVER THE INTERIOR IF WE CAN GET SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER
BEFORE CONVECTION DEVELOPS BY AFTERNOON.

MONDAY...THE MID LVL S/W TROUGH ACROSS AL WILL ALLOW LOW LVL FLOW TO
VEER TO THE S AND SW ACROSS E CENTRAL FL WITH DEEP MOISTURE
RETURNING OVER THE AREA FROM THE ERN GULF. GFS INDICATES MID TO
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TRACKING TWD THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON
WHICH SHOULD ALLOW A HEALTHY COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS
TRACKING WEST TO EAST ACROSS CENTRAL FL TOWARD THE ATLC BY LATE IN
THE DAY. WILL KEEP POPS AROUND 60 PCT ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA BUT GO
SLIGHTLY LOWER ALONG THE ST LUCIE/MARTIN COAST.

MON NIGHT...SFC LOW WILL APPROACH WITH GA WITH A FEED OF DEEP
MOISTURE ACROSS CENTRAL FL. WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN THE SCATTERED
RANGE WITH THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS CONTINUING INTO THE LATE NIGHT
HOURS.

TUESDAY...THE MID LVL S/W TROUGH WILL BE ACROSS GA WITH DEEP
MOISTURE AND SW-W STEERING FLOW ALLOWING SHOWERS AND STORMS TO TRACK
EASTWARD ACROSS E CENTRAL FL MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. GFS
MODEL QPF VALUES SHOULD SUPPORT POPS ABOVE MOS VALUES AND WILL GO
AGAIN AROUND 60 PCT WITH THE CHANCE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH
SHOWERS AND STORMS.

WED-SAT...THE MID LVL S/W TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLC COAST
WED/THU WITH MID LVL WNW FLOW AND LOWERING MOISTURE LEVELS ACROSS
THE NRN PENINSULA. WILL KEEP POPS IN THE SCATTERED RANGE FOR LATE
WEEK WITH THE LOWEST COVERAGE LIKELY ON THU WITH WESTERLY LOW LVL
FLOW AND PWATS LOWERING TO 1.5 TO 1.7 INCHES ACROSS FAR NRN
SECTIONS. A DEEPER MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVED TWD THE OHIO
VALLEY AND SE STATES FOR FRI INTO SAT. SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN
PREFRONTAL MOISTURE AND SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT TO START THE
WEEKEND WITH RAIN CHANCES AGAIN INCREASING BY SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
THROUGH 10Z...SCT SHRA AFFECTING TERMINALS FROM KMCO-KEVB NORTH AND
WEST ALONG WITH ATLC ACTIVITY BRUSHING COASTAL SITES. 10Z-15Z...SCT
SHRA/ISOLD TSRA AFFECTING COASTAL SITES MAINLY SOUTH OF KTIX. AFTER
15Z...SCT-NMRS SHRA/ISOLD TSRA MAINLY OVER INTERIOR WITH MOST
ACTIVITY SHIFTING WEST OF REGION AFTER 00Z. ATLC SHRA WILL WANE THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT A FEW MAY STILL MOVE INTO THE COAST THROUGH THE DAY.
ANOTHER ROUND OF ATLC SHRA OVERNIGHT. CIGS PREVAILING VFR OUTSIDE OF
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WITH TEMPO IFR IN HEAVIER SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY-TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL TROUGHINESS REMAINS PERSISTENT OVER LOCAL
WATERS WITH WINDS NEAR THE COAST NORTH OF THE CAPE STILL BACKED MORE
NORTH-NORTHWEST WHILE EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW HAS PICKED UP ELSEWHERE.
GIVEN THE PERSISTENCE OF THIS FLOW...HAVE KEPT WINDS BACKED ALONG
THE VOLUSIA COUNTY WATERS LONGER THAN MODELS SUGGEST INTO LATE
MORNING. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL BECOME EAST-SOUTHEAST 10-15KTS OVER
ALL THE WATERS BY THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. SEAS 3-4FT WITH
DOMINANT PERIODS AROUND 8 SEC. SCATTERED SHOWER AND ISOLD STORMS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

ESE WINDS SUNDAY AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL VEER TO SOUTHERLY MONDAY AND
S/SW BY TUESDAY WITH INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS MOVING
FROM THE MAINLAND TOWARD THE ATLANTIC FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. LIGHTER
WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR MID WEEK WITH A LOWER COVERAGE OF SHOWER AND
STORMS EXPECTED. SEAS MAINLY 3-4 FT SUNDAY-MONDAY DECREASING TO 2-3
FT BY MID WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ST JOHNS RIVER AT ASTOR REMAINS JUST ABOVE ACTION STAGE THIS
MORNING. THE NORTHERLY WIND FLOW THAT WAS HELPING TO CONTRIBUTE TO
THE HIGH RIVER LEVELS ON THURSDAY HAS ABATED...HOWEVER...HEAVY RAIN
OVER THE BASIN NEAR ASTOR WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE RIVER LEVEL
ELEVATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL LAST EVENING HAS LEVELED OFF THE DROP ALONG
SHINGLE CREEK NEAR CAMPBELL THIS MORNING...BUT RISES HAVE BEEN
MINIMAL AND THE RIVER REMAINS AROUND 1FT BELOW ACTION STAGE. THIS
AREA IS MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO FASTER RISES THAN THE ST JOHNS...SO WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND RUN LOCAL MODEL AS NEEDED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

THE LITTLE WEKIVA RIVER IN WESTERN SEMINOLE COUNTY EXPERIENCED A
RAPID RISE FRIDAY EVENING AND APPROACHED HOMES IN THE SPRINGS
SUBDIVISION. BUT THE RIVER LEVEL HAS SINCE STABILIZED REDUCING THE
THREAT TO HOMES.

ELSEWHERE...ANY HEAVY RAINFALL ON ALREADY SATURATED GROUND MAY
AGGRAVATE ANY ONGOING STANDING WATER ISSUES AND LEAD TO ADDITIONAL
MINOR FLOODING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  86  76  87  75 /  50  30  40  20
MCO  89  75  90  74 /  60  20  50  20
MLB  86  78  88  76 /  40  20  40  20
VRB  86  75  88  75 /  30  20  40  20
LEE  88  74  90  75 /  60  30  50  40
SFB  89  75  90  75 /  50  30  50  20
ORL  89  75  90  75 /  60  20  50  20
FPR  87  77  88  75 /  30  20  40  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$







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