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000
FXUS62 KMLB 190728
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
325 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

...WEAK LOW TO DEVELOP OFF OUR SE COAST TONIGHT/SATURDAY...

CURRENT...QSTNRY FRONT LIES NEAR THE FLORIDA-GEORGIA BORDER EARLY
THIS MORNING...WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AXIS FARTHER SOUTH...
EXTENDING FROM OFFSHORE FMY TO JUST NORTH OF GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND.
WATER VAPOR AND RUC IMAGERY SHOW CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...WITH A MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS...FROM MS/AL THRU INTO THE APPALACHIAN
SPINE...DROPPING SE TWD THE STATE. STATEWIDE RADAR MOSAIC STARTED
OFF FAIRLY QUIET...HOWEVER PROLIFERATION OF MARINE CONVECTION HAS
BEEN ONGOING...MAINLY TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF ECFL. ACTIVITY HAS
BEEN AIDED BY INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENT/WEAKLY DVGT H25 FLOW.

TODAY/TONIGHT...
THE WELL-ADVERTISED DEVELOPMENT OF THE TRANSIENT POSITIVE TILT
CUTOFF MID LEVEL LOW AND ATTENDANT SURFACE WAVE/LOW FORMATION OFF
TO OUR E-SE REMAINS ON TAP FOR THE SHORT RANGE. 00Z MODEL RAOBS
INDICATE SIGNIFICANT "TOP-DOWN" MOISTENING OF THE LOCAL AIR
MASS...WHICH WILL VERY LIKELY LIMIT INSOLATION AND KEEP MAX TEMPS
DOWN MOSTLY IN THE L-M80S FOR MOST AREAS. INCREASING FORCED ASCENT
SHOULD RESULT IN BREAKOUT OF LIGHT RAIN WITH EMBEDDED WEAK
CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY LATE AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING. AS THE LOW
BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE JUST OFF THE SEFL COAST TONIGHT...CONTINUED
ASCENT ALOFT...INCREASING LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC/CONVGT FLOW NEAR/ALONG
THE COAST COUPLED WITH WRAP BACK MOISTURE AND THE NOCTURNAL INCREASE
IN MARINE INSTABILITY SHOULD RESULT IN DECENT CHC FOR POPS...
ESPECIALLY ALONG COASTAL AREAS WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

SAT-SUN...
BOTH THE 19/00Z GFS AND 18/12Z ECMWF SIMILAR IN SHOWING AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER TIER OF THE U.S. CATCHING THE
CLOSED LOW EAST OF FLORIDA AND JUST NORTH OF GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND AND
LIFTING IT NORTHEAST TO NEW ENGLAND AND EASTERN CANADA. ENOUGH
MOISTURE PRESENT SATURDAY AND A VORT MAX PROVIDING SUFFICIENT LIFT
AS IT ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND MID
ATLANTIC COASTAL REGIONS TO PRODUCE LIKELY...60 POP... RAIN CHANCES
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CHANCE...30-50 POP NORTH TO SOUTH...ON SUNDAY
AS MOISTURE RIBBON SLIDES DOWN THE STATES INTO SOUTHERN FLORIDA.
HIGHS MID AND UPPER 80S BOTH DAYS. LOWS SUN AND MON MORNING LOW 70S
EXCEPT UPPER 60S WEST OF INTERSTATE 95 INDIAN RIVER TO MARTIN AND
WEST ACROSS SOUTH OSCEOLA AND OKEECHOBEE COUNTIES.

MON...
STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND FLORIDA.
THE STRONGER SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH PUSHES MOISTURE BACK
INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE MOISTURE RETURN IS ENOUGH TO PUT 50 POP
OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS AND RAIN CHANCES DECREASING TO AROUND 30
PERCENT ORLANDO AND NORTH. SOUTHWEST FLOW HELPS TO PUSH AFTERNOON
HIGHS INTO THE LOWER 90S EXCEPT RIGHT AT THE COAST AND DOWN WIND OF
LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

TUE-THU...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE U.S. AND RIDGES
SOUTH ACROSS FLORIDA RESULTING IN AN EASTERLY FLOW TUE AND WED. ON
THU THE GFS APPEARS AS IF IT MAY BE OVERDONE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SHARP INVERTED TROUGH ALONG THE FL EAST COAST AND THE SERN SEABOARD
THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF FOR THE SAME MODEL RUN OF 19/00Z
SHOWS A MUCH WEAKER/DIFFUSE FEATURE. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL EXIST
FOR AT LEAST MID RANGE SCATTERED POPS WITH SHOWERS BEING DOMINANT
PRECIP TYPE...ALONG WITH A SLIGHTLY LOWER CHC FOR TS...AS THE ECSB
WILL BE DIFFUSE/FAST MOVING IN A MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW REGIME.

&&

.AVIATION...INCREASING THREAT FOR SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH TS
COVERAGE LIKELY TO ISOLD DUE TO THICKENING CLOUD COVER LIMITING SFC
HEATING. 06Z PACKAGE DID NOT INCLUDE VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN WHAT WILL
BE MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN AND PSBLY SOME HEAVIER EMBEDDED CONVECTION. AM
LEANING TWD PREVAILING MVFR VSBYS...MAINLY FROM VRB NWD LATE TODAY
INTO TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...TODAY/TONIGHT...DECAYING LONG PD (11-13S) SWELL FROM VERY
DISTANT T.S. EDOUARD WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING WIND CHOP ON NORTH
SIDE OF DEVELOPING SFC TROUGH/LOW OFF OUR SE COAST THROUGH TONIGHT.
AS SEAS BUILD SLIGHTLY TO 3-4FT AS PDS WILL SHORTEN...AND WAVE MODEL
GUIDANCE IS AT A TOSS UP W/R/T DOMINANT PDS. USED SORT OF A BLEND...
TRENDING FROM THE WNAWAVE HGTS/PDS EARLY TODAY...MORE TWD THE NWPS
MODEL FOR TONIGHT.

SAT-SUN...LOW EAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA GIVES THE WINDS MORE OF
A NORTHERLY COMPONENT SAT SHIFTING TO THE WEST SUN AS THE LOW LIFTS
NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM FLORIDA. ON SUN...THE WESTERLY WINDS SUN
LOOK LIGHT ENOUGH TO ALLOW AN AFTERNOON TO FORM BUT STAY AT THE
COAST.

MON-TUE...SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A TROUGH BECOMES LIGHT AND
VARIABLE MON BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST TUE AS HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN U.S. RIDGES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND INTO
FLORIDA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  83  72  86  71 /  60  50  50  30
MCO  85  71  87  70 /  60  40  50  30
MLB  84  74  85  71 /  70  50  60  30
VRB  84  72  87  70 /  70  50  60  30
LEE  84  70  88  71 /  60  40  40  30
SFB  85  70  88  72 /  60  40  50  30
ORL  85  71  87  72 /  60  40  50  30
FPR  85  73  86  69 /  70  50  60  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...CRISTALDI
LONG TERM....WIMMER






000
FXUS62 KMLB 190143
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
943 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
BOUNDARY COLLISIONS PRODUCED A FEW STRONG STORMS OVER
THE ORLANDO METRO THIS EVENING...WITH THE LAST FEW COLLISIONS
CURRENTLY PLAYING OUT ACROSS MARION..LAKE AND PUTNAM COUNTIES. A FEW
OF THE STORMS FURTHER NORTH WILL DRIFT INTO LAKE COUNTY THROUGH LATE
EVENING AND ALSO BRUSH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION NEAR THE ATTRACTIONS
AREA. SOME WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL HELP ACTIVITY LINGER
IN THESE AREAS THROUGH MIDNIGHT...BUT FOR THE MOST PART ACTIVITY IS
ON THE WANE.

CONDITIONS DO NOT LOOK AS FAVORABLE FOR FOG AND STRATUS TONIGHT AS
THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE WEST AND A
PERSISTENT...ALBEIT LIGHT...ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE COAST. BEST CHANCE
FOR ANY PATCHY FOG WILL BE OVER THE FAR INTERIOR WHERE WINDS SHOULD
GO CALM.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY/MOISTURE BAND THAT PASSED US YESTERDAY AND IS
CURRENTLY OVER S FLORIDA WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT BACK NORTHWARDS
OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE A SLOW INCREASE IN SHOWERS OVER THE
ATLANTIC...WITH A FEW APPROACHING/BRUSHING THE COAST TOWARD MORNING
AS ONSHORE (E/NE) FLOW BEGINS TO INCREASE. GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF
THE BOUNDARY TO THE TREASURE COAST BY DAYBREAK...HAVE ADDED IN THE
MENTION OF ISOLATED SHOWERS THERE LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
THROUGH 19/04Z...SCT SHRA/TSRA AFFECTING SITES WEST OF ORLANDO
METRO/ISM WITH TEMPO IFR CONDS WITH ANY ACTIVITY.

CONDITIONS NOT AS FAVORABLE FOR FOG OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS...BUT COULD SEE TEMPO MVFR DEVELOPMENT IN FAVORED
AREAS ESPECIALLY AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE...ALONG THE KISSIMMEE RIVER
AND KISM-KLEE-KVVG.

OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKES SLOW NORTHWARD PROGRESS ON FRI AS WEAK
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG IT TO OUR SOUTHEAST. OVERALL CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR...BUT WILL SEE INCREASING MULTI LAYERED
CLOUDS LOWERING TO FL040-060 WITH PREVAILING SHRA AND EMBEDDED TSRA
BY THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
EAST WINDS 5-10KTS OVERNIGHT BACKING MORE EAST-NE FRIDAY AS WEAK
FRONT LIFTS NORTH. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN DUE TO LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER SOUTH FL DURING THE DAY...BRINGING WINDS UP
TO 15KTS INTO THE AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF CAUTION OR
EVEN ADVISORY CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS THE LOW MOVES
NORTHEAST. SEAS 2-3FT INTO FRIDAY. DOMINANT PERIODS WILL REMAIN
12-14SEC THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE DAY...WITH PERIODS SHORTENING
QUICKLY INTO THE AFTERNOON AS ONSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENS.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

MOSES/LASCODY








000
FXUS62 KMLB 190143
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
943 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
BOUNDARY COLLISIONS PRODUCED A FEW STRONG STORMS OVER
THE ORLANDO METRO THIS EVENING...WITH THE LAST FEW COLLISIONS
CURRENTLY PLAYING OUT ACROSS MARION..LAKE AND PUTNAM COUNTIES. A FEW
OF THE STORMS FURTHER NORTH WILL DRIFT INTO LAKE COUNTY THROUGH LATE
EVENING AND ALSO BRUSH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION NEAR THE ATTRACTIONS
AREA. SOME WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL HELP ACTIVITY LINGER
IN THESE AREAS THROUGH MIDNIGHT...BUT FOR THE MOST PART ACTIVITY IS
ON THE WANE.

CONDITIONS DO NOT LOOK AS FAVORABLE FOR FOG AND STRATUS TONIGHT AS
THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE WEST AND A
PERSISTENT...ALBEIT LIGHT...ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE COAST. BEST CHANCE
FOR ANY PATCHY FOG WILL BE OVER THE FAR INTERIOR WHERE WINDS SHOULD
GO CALM.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY/MOISTURE BAND THAT PASSED US YESTERDAY AND IS
CURRENTLY OVER S FLORIDA WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT BACK NORTHWARDS
OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE A SLOW INCREASE IN SHOWERS OVER THE
ATLANTIC...WITH A FEW APPROACHING/BRUSHING THE COAST TOWARD MORNING
AS ONSHORE (E/NE) FLOW BEGINS TO INCREASE. GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF
THE BOUNDARY TO THE TREASURE COAST BY DAYBREAK...HAVE ADDED IN THE
MENTION OF ISOLATED SHOWERS THERE LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
THROUGH 19/04Z...SCT SHRA/TSRA AFFECTING SITES WEST OF ORLANDO
METRO/ISM WITH TEMPO IFR CONDS WITH ANY ACTIVITY.

CONDITIONS NOT AS FAVORABLE FOR FOG OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS...BUT COULD SEE TEMPO MVFR DEVELOPMENT IN FAVORED
AREAS ESPECIALLY AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE...ALONG THE KISSIMMEE RIVER
AND KISM-KLEE-KVVG.

OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKES SLOW NORTHWARD PROGRESS ON FRI AS WEAK
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG IT TO OUR SOUTHEAST. OVERALL CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR...BUT WILL SEE INCREASING MULTI LAYERED
CLOUDS LOWERING TO FL040-060 WITH PREVAILING SHRA AND EMBEDDED TSRA
BY THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
EAST WINDS 5-10KTS OVERNIGHT BACKING MORE EAST-NE FRIDAY AS WEAK
FRONT LIFTS NORTH. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN DUE TO LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER SOUTH FL DURING THE DAY...BRINGING WINDS UP
TO 15KTS INTO THE AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF CAUTION OR
EVEN ADVISORY CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS THE LOW MOVES
NORTHEAST. SEAS 2-3FT INTO FRIDAY. DOMINANT PERIODS WILL REMAIN
12-14SEC THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE DAY...WITH PERIODS SHORTENING
QUICKLY INTO THE AFTERNOON AS ONSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENS.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

MOSES/LASCODY









000
FXUS62 KMLB 182001
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
401 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...

...BOATING CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...

THRU TONIGHT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS SHOULD PRESS
SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTH INTERIOR THROUGH ABOUT SUNSET THEN DIMINISH
WITH LOSS OF HEATING. HAVE DRAWN A 30 POP ORLANDO METRO NORTH AND
WEST THROUGH 8 PM. CONDITIONS DO NOT LOOK AS FAVORABLE FOR FOG
TONIGHT AS THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE WEST
AND A PERSISTENT...ALBEIT LIGHT...ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE COAST.
BEST CHANCE FOR ANY PATCHY FOG WILL BE OVER THE FAR INTERIOR WHERE
WINDS SHOULD GO CALM. ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE ATLC THIS EVENING
SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE LATE AND COULD APPROACH THE COAST
TOWARD MORNING AS ONSHORE (E/NE) FLOW BEGINS TO INCREASE.

FRI...WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTH FL ALONG
OLD FRONTAL TROUGH AND SUPPORTED BY SOME MID LEVEL VORT ENERGY.
THIS WILL INCREASE THE MOISTURE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AND INCREASE
THE E/NE WINDS. THIS WILL PRODUCE CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS WHICH WILL
HOLD MAX TEMPS TO THE MID 80S. RAIN CHANCES LOOK HIGHEST ACROSS
THE SOUTH...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST...AND WILL NOT ARGUE WITH
LIKELY MOS POPS THERE. AM NOT SURE RAIN CHANCES WILL BE QUITE AS
HIGH NORTH OF ORLANDO WHERE THE AIRMASS MAY NOT MOISTEN AS
QUICKLY.

THE LONG PERIOD SWELLS FROM "EDOUARD" WILL GRADUALLY DECAY AND
TONIGHT SO EXPECT A LOWER THREAT FOR RIP CURRENTS ON FRIDAY.

FRI NIGHT-SUN...
TRANSIENT CUTOFF H50 LOW FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG/OFFSHORE THE
SERN SEABOARD AND THE NRN HALF OF FL FRIDAY NIGHT-SAT. SHORT WAVE
ENERGY DIVING SE COUPLED WITH A SHEARED OFF PIECE OF REMNANT MID
LEVEL VORTICITY FROM FORMER EPAC HURCN "ODILE" WILL COMBINE TO
PRODUCE THE FEATURE THROUGH 12Z SAT WITH THE POS TILT FEATURE
EJECTING OUT AND OPENING UP NE OF FL SAT NIGHT-SUN AHEAD OF A
DEVELOPING DEEP ERN CONUS TROUGH. FORCED ASCENT WILL YIELD PRES
FALLS EAST OF FL...WITH BAROCLINIC SFC WAVE/LOW DEVELOPMENT
NEAR/NORTH OF THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO LATE SAT
NIGHT...BEFORE RACING OFF THE NE ON SUN.

HGTS FALLS ALOFT WILL LEAD TO INCREASING RAIN/STORM CHCS FRI
NIGHT-SAT (60-70) WITH THE BOTH GLOBAL MODELS SHOWING A LITTLE
MORE MID LVL TROUGHINESS LINGERING OVHD...AND LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH
THE DRYING BEHIND THE SFC LOW ON SUN. AS A RESULT...RAISED POPS UP
TO 40-50 FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND. CLOUDS/PRECIP SHOULD
HOLD TEMPS DOWN BELOW CLIMO.

MON-THU...
NEXT WEEK STARTS OFF WITH WEAK HIGH PRES IN PLACE OVER ECFL...WHILE
A DEEP LAYER ERN CONUS TROUGH DRIVES A COLD FRONT WELL INTO THE SERN
CONUS. TYPICAL OF MANY EARLY FALL ATTEMPTS OF MODIFIED POLAR AIRMASS
INTRUSIONS TOWARD/INTO NORTH AND CTRL FL...THE ACTUAL BOUNDARY WILL
GET BRIDGED BY STRONG HIGH PRES TO ITS NORTH WITH STOUT ONSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPING FROM MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

COUPLED WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE...THIS WILL LEAD TO MORE OF A
SHOWERY TYPE PATTERN WITH A MORE DIFFUSE ECSB LEADING TO LESS TS
COVERAGE BY WED-THU. MAX TEMPS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO MON-TUE
WILL DROP BACK IN FRESHENING ONSHORE FLOW WED-THU.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR THROUGH 16Z. ISOLD SHRA/TSRA MAY AFFECT INTERIOR TERMINALS
THROUGH 00Z. NE WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS FRIDAY WITH INCREASING MULTI
LAYERED CLOUDS AND COVERAGE OF RAIN AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER
SOUTH FL.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT EAST WINDS TONIGHT WILL INCREASE FRIDAY NEAR 15 KNOTS AS
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS DUE TO LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER
SOUTH FL. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF CAUTION OR EVEN ADVISORY
CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST.
CURRENTLY HAVE SEAS BUILDING 4 TO 5 FT OFFSHORE DURING THIS
PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  74  84  71  86 /  10  60  40  60
MCO  73  87  69  85 /  20  60  50  60
MLB  76  84  73  83 /  10  70  50  60
VRB  73  84  73  84 /  10  70  50  60
LEE  73  86  68  86 /  20  60  40  60
SFB  74  86  70  86 /  20  60  40  60
ORL  75  87  69  85 /  20  60  50  60
FPR  73  84  73  84 /  10  70  50  60

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

KELLY/VOLKMER







000
FXUS62 KMLB 182001
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
401 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...

...BOATING CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...

THRU TONIGHT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS SHOULD PRESS
SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTH INTERIOR THROUGH ABOUT SUNSET THEN DIMINISH
WITH LOSS OF HEATING. HAVE DRAWN A 30 POP ORLANDO METRO NORTH AND
WEST THROUGH 8 PM. CONDITIONS DO NOT LOOK AS FAVORABLE FOR FOG
TONIGHT AS THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE WEST
AND A PERSISTENT...ALBEIT LIGHT...ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE COAST.
BEST CHANCE FOR ANY PATCHY FOG WILL BE OVER THE FAR INTERIOR WHERE
WINDS SHOULD GO CALM. ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE ATLC THIS EVENING
SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE LATE AND COULD APPROACH THE COAST
TOWARD MORNING AS ONSHORE (E/NE) FLOW BEGINS TO INCREASE.

FRI...WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTH FL ALONG
OLD FRONTAL TROUGH AND SUPPORTED BY SOME MID LEVEL VORT ENERGY.
THIS WILL INCREASE THE MOISTURE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AND INCREASE
THE E/NE WINDS. THIS WILL PRODUCE CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS WHICH WILL
HOLD MAX TEMPS TO THE MID 80S. RAIN CHANCES LOOK HIGHEST ACROSS
THE SOUTH...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST...AND WILL NOT ARGUE WITH
LIKELY MOS POPS THERE. AM NOT SURE RAIN CHANCES WILL BE QUITE AS
HIGH NORTH OF ORLANDO WHERE THE AIRMASS MAY NOT MOISTEN AS
QUICKLY.

THE LONG PERIOD SWELLS FROM "EDOUARD" WILL GRADUALLY DECAY AND
TONIGHT SO EXPECT A LOWER THREAT FOR RIP CURRENTS ON FRIDAY.

FRI NIGHT-SUN...
TRANSIENT CUTOFF H50 LOW FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG/OFFSHORE THE
SERN SEABOARD AND THE NRN HALF OF FL FRIDAY NIGHT-SAT. SHORT WAVE
ENERGY DIVING SE COUPLED WITH A SHEARED OFF PIECE OF REMNANT MID
LEVEL VORTICITY FROM FORMER EPAC HURCN "ODILE" WILL COMBINE TO
PRODUCE THE FEATURE THROUGH 12Z SAT WITH THE POS TILT FEATURE
EJECTING OUT AND OPENING UP NE OF FL SAT NIGHT-SUN AHEAD OF A
DEVELOPING DEEP ERN CONUS TROUGH. FORCED ASCENT WILL YIELD PRES
FALLS EAST OF FL...WITH BAROCLINIC SFC WAVE/LOW DEVELOPMENT
NEAR/NORTH OF THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO LATE SAT
NIGHT...BEFORE RACING OFF THE NE ON SUN.

HGTS FALLS ALOFT WILL LEAD TO INCREASING RAIN/STORM CHCS FRI
NIGHT-SAT (60-70) WITH THE BOTH GLOBAL MODELS SHOWING A LITTLE
MORE MID LVL TROUGHINESS LINGERING OVHD...AND LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH
THE DRYING BEHIND THE SFC LOW ON SUN. AS A RESULT...RAISED POPS UP
TO 40-50 FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND. CLOUDS/PRECIP SHOULD
HOLD TEMPS DOWN BELOW CLIMO.

MON-THU...
NEXT WEEK STARTS OFF WITH WEAK HIGH PRES IN PLACE OVER ECFL...WHILE
A DEEP LAYER ERN CONUS TROUGH DRIVES A COLD FRONT WELL INTO THE SERN
CONUS. TYPICAL OF MANY EARLY FALL ATTEMPTS OF MODIFIED POLAR AIRMASS
INTRUSIONS TOWARD/INTO NORTH AND CTRL FL...THE ACTUAL BOUNDARY WILL
GET BRIDGED BY STRONG HIGH PRES TO ITS NORTH WITH STOUT ONSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPING FROM MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

COUPLED WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE...THIS WILL LEAD TO MORE OF A
SHOWERY TYPE PATTERN WITH A MORE DIFFUSE ECSB LEADING TO LESS TS
COVERAGE BY WED-THU. MAX TEMPS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO MON-TUE
WILL DROP BACK IN FRESHENING ONSHORE FLOW WED-THU.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR THROUGH 16Z. ISOLD SHRA/TSRA MAY AFFECT INTERIOR TERMINALS
THROUGH 00Z. NE WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS FRIDAY WITH INCREASING MULTI
LAYERED CLOUDS AND COVERAGE OF RAIN AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER
SOUTH FL.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT EAST WINDS TONIGHT WILL INCREASE FRIDAY NEAR 15 KNOTS AS
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS DUE TO LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER
SOUTH FL. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF CAUTION OR EVEN ADVISORY
CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST.
CURRENTLY HAVE SEAS BUILDING 4 TO 5 FT OFFSHORE DURING THIS
PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  74  84  71  86 /  10  60  40  60
MCO  73  87  69  85 /  20  60  50  60
MLB  76  84  73  83 /  10  70  50  60
VRB  73  84  73  84 /  10  70  50  60
LEE  73  86  68  86 /  20  60  40  60
SFB  74  86  70  86 /  20  60  40  60
ORL  75  87  69  85 /  20  60  50  60
FPR  73  84  73  84 /  10  70  50  60

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

KELLY/VOLKMER






000
FXUS62 KMLB 181503 AAA
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
11 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...

PATCHY LOW CLOUDS LINGERING FROM VERO BEACH AND FORT PIERCE WEST TO
THE KISSIMMEE RIVER WILL LIFT BY NOON. MORNING CAPE SOUNDING SHOWS
MUCH DRIER AIR ABOVE 850 MB BUT SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINS SO EXPECT SCATTERED CU TO DEVELOP. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS JUST A
LITTLE...REDUCING RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE TREASURE COAST TO 20
PERCENT IN ORDER TO SHOW THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THIS AFTN
WILL BE OVER THE INTERIOR AND AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE. LIGHT N/NW
WINDS THIS MORNING WILL TURN NE TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON. OUR LOCAL
WRF AND THE HRRR MODEL ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING EXPECTED
EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON SHOWING THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE AS WELL AS THE NORTH
INTERIOR. MOTION GENERALLY TOWARD THE S/SW.

PREVIOUS DAY 1 DISCUSSION...
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ORGANIZED PRECIP TODAY AS THE RELATIVELY STABLE
AIRMASS OVERHEAD LIMITS VERTICAL MOTION...WHILE DRY AIR ALOFT LIMITS
POTENTIAL FOR CU DVLPMNT. BROAD LOW PRES OVER THE W ATLC WILL LIFT
NE...ALLOWING HI PRES TO BUILD DOWN THE ERN SEABOARD IN ITS WAKE. AS
IT DOES...LIGHT NWRLY WINDS THRU THE H100-H85 LYR WILL VEER TO THE
NE BY MIDDAY...THEN TO THE E THRU SUNSET.

NW/NE FLOW REGIMES TYPICALLY DO NOT PRODUCE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
THUNDER OVER CENTRAL FL. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT PRECIP WITH SFC
DEWPOINTS IN THE L70S AND H100-H70 MEAN RH VALUES RUINING BTWN
70-80PCT. HOWEVER...THE DLVPG ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIMIT THE WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY FOR COASTAL TSRA DVLPMNT. INTERIOR WILL HAVE A BETTER
OPPORTUNITY AS NEAR FULL SUN WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH THEIR
CONVECTIVE TRIGGERS BY EARLY AFTN. HOWEVER...WITH PWAT VALUES
EXPECTED TO DROP TO ARND 1.6"...CHANCES WILL BE AOB 20PCT OVER MOST
OF THE AREA....WITH GO WITH 30 POPS ARND LAKE OKEECHOBEE DUE TO
SLIGHTLY HIGHER MOISTURE PROFILE. PRECIP SHOULD BURN OUT BY SUNSET
OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER.

DVLPG ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS ALONG THE COAST IN THE
M/U80S...INTERIOR WARMING INTO THE L90S. MIN TEMPS HOLDING IN THE
L/M70S AREAWIDE OVERNIGHT AS THE CONTINUING ONSHORE FLOW WILL
QUICKLY MODIFY WHATEVER LOW DEWPOINT AIR THAT MANAGES TO FILTER INTO
THE CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...
LINGERING MVFR CIGS AT VRB/FPR WILL LIFT BY 16Z. BRIEF MVFR CIGS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE AS SFC HEATING WORKS ON LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BUT ENTRAINMENT OF DRIER AIR ALOFT SHOULD LIMIT DURATION OF
MVFR CONDS. ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA AFT 17Z PUSHING SOUTHWARD MAY IMPACT
SFB/MCO/LEE. LIGHT N/NW FLOW TURNING NE TO EAST.

&&

.MARINE...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO CURRENT COASTAL WATERS FORECAST.
WEAK HI PRES OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID ATLC STATES WILL NUDGE ITS
WAY OFF THE ERN SEABOARD... ALLOWING SFC/BNDRY LYR WINDS OVER THE
LCL ATLC TO VEER TO THE N/NE BY MIDDAY...THEN TO THE E BY LATE
AFTN...STEADY SPEEDS BTWN 8-10KTS. LONG PD SWELLS FROM HURRICANE
EDOUARD WILL DAMPEN OVER THE LCL ATLC THRU THE DAY...SUBSIDING TO
2-3FT NEARSHORE AND 3-4FT OFFSHORE TODAY...THEN 2-3FT AREAWIDE
TONIGHT. ISOLD SHRAS LIMITED TO THE GULF STREAM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  87  74  83  71 /  20  10  60  40
MCO  91  73  87  69 /  20  20  60  50
MLB  87  75  84  73 /  20  10  70  50
VRB  86  73  85  73 /  20  10  70  50
LEE  91  74  88  68 /  20  20  60  40
SFB  91  74  86  70 /  20  20  60  40
ORL  91  74  86  69 /  20  20  60  50
FPR  87  73  86  73 /  30  10  70  50

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

KELLY/VOLKMER










000
FXUS62 KMLB 180758
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
355 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY...
BAND OF RELATIVELY DRY AIR OVER CNTRL FL IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK TROF
AXIS OVER S FL. RUC40 ANALYSIS SHOWS PWAT VALUES AOA 2.0" OVER THE S
PENINSULA...DECREASING TO 1.5"-1.6" OVER THE NRN PENINSULA...THEN
INCREASING TO ARND 1.8" OVER THE PANHANDLE DUE TO MOISTURE POOLING
IN THE VCNTY OF A STALLED FRONTAL BNDRY OVER THE DEEP SOUTH.
ALOFT...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPSTREAM MID LVL VORTICITY OUTSIDE OF A
WEAK BAND IN THE VCNTY OF THE FRONT...UPR LVL CONVERGENCE THRU THE
H30-H20 LYR AS THE MID/UPR TROF HAS WORKS ITS WAY E OF THE I-4
CORRIDOR...H70 TEMPS BTWN 7-8C...H50 TEMPS ARND -6C...RESULTING IN
WEAK LAPSE RATES BTWN 4.5-5.0C/KM.

TODAY-TONIGHT...
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ORGANIZED PRECIP TODAY AS THE RELATIVELY STABLE
AIRMASS OVERHEAD LIMITS VERTICAL MOTION...WHILE DRY AIR ALOFT LIMITS
POTENTIAL FOR CU DVLPMNT. BROAD LOW PRES OVER THE W ATLC WILL LIFT
NE...ALLOWING HI PRES TO BUILD DOWN THE ERN SEABOARD IN ITS WAKE. AS
IT DOES...LIGHT NWRLY WINDS THRU THE H100-H85 LYR WILL VEER TO THE
NE BY MIDDAY...THEN TO THE E THRU SUNSET.

NW/NE FLOW REGIMES TYPICALLY DO NOT PRODUCE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
THUNDER OVER CENTRAL FL. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT PRECIP WITH SFC
DEWPOINTS IN THE L70S AND H100-H70 MEAN RH VALUES RUINING BTWN
70-80PCT. HOWEVER...THE DLVPG ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIMIT THE WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY FOR COASTAL TSRA DVLPMNT. INTERIOR WILL HAVE A BETTER
OPPORTUNITY AS NEAR FULL SUN WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH THEIR
CONVECTIVE TRIGGERS BY EARLY AFTN. HOWEVER...WITH PWAT VALUES
EXPECTED TO DROP TO ARND 1.6"...CHANCES WILL BE AOB 20PCT OVER MOST
OF THE AREA....WITH GO WITH 30 POPS ARND LAKE OKEECHOBEE DUE TO
SLIGHTLY HIGHER MOISTURE PROFILE. PRECIP SHOULD BURN OUT BY SUNSET
OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER.

DVLPG ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS ALONG THE COAST IN THE
M/U80S...INTERIOR WARMING INTO THE L90S. MIN TEMPS HOLDING IN THE
L/M70S AREAWIDE OVERNIGHT AS THE CONTINUING ONSHORE FLOW WILL
QUICKLY MODIFY WHATEVER LOW DEWPOINT AIR THAT MANAGES TO FILTER INTO
THE CWA.

FRI-SUN...
IN THE SHORT RANGE THE ECM HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE GFS W/R/T THE
EVOLUTION OF THE RATHER TRANSIENT CUTOFF H50 LOW FORECAST TO
DEVELOP ALONG/OFFSHORE THE SERN SEABOARD AND THE NRN HALF OF FL
FRIDAY NIGHT-SAT. SHORT WAVE ENERGY DIVING SE COUPLED WITH A SHEARED
OFF PIECE OF REMNANT MID LEVEL VORTICITY FROM FORMER EPAC HURCN
"ODILE" WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE THE FEATURE THROUGH 12Z SAT WITH THE
POS TILT FEATURE EJECTING OUT AND OPENING UP NE OF FL SAT NIGHT-SUN
AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING DEEP ERN CONUS TROUGH. FORCED ASCENT WILL
YIELD PRES FALLS EAST OF FL...WITH BAROCLINIC SFC WAVE/LOW
DEVELOPMENT NEAR/NORTH OF THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
LATE SAT NIGHT...BEFORE RACING OFF THE NE ON SUN.

HGTS FALLS ALOFT WILL LEAD TO INCREASING RAIN/STORM CHCS FRI-SAT
(60-70) WITH THE BOTH GLOBAL MODELS SHOWING A LITTLE MORE MID LVL
TROUGHINESS LINGERING OVHD...AND LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE DRYING
BEHIND THE SFC LOW ON SUN. AS A RESULT...RAISED POPS UP TO 40-50
FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND. CLOUDS/PRECIP SHOULD HOLD
TEMPS DOWN BELOW CLIMO...PRIMARILY FRI-SAT.

MON-THU...
NEXT WEEK STARTS OFF WITH WEAK HIGH PRES IN PLACE OVER ECFL...WHILE
A DEEP LAYER ERN CONUS TROUGH DRIVES A COLD FRONT WELL INTO THE SERN
CONUS. TYPICAL OF MANY EARLY FALL ATTEMPTS OF MODIFIED POLAR AIRMASS
INTRUSIONS TOWARD/INTO NORTH AND CTRL FL...THE ACTUAL BOUNDARY WILL
GET BRIDGED BY STRONG HIGH PRES TO ITS NORTH WITH STOUT ONSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPING FROM MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

COUPLED WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE...THIS WILL LEAD TO MORE OF A
SHOWERY TYPE PATTERN WITH A MORE DIFFUSE ECSB LEADING TO LESS TS
COVERAGE BY WED-THU. MAX TEMPS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO MON-TUE
WILL DROP BACK IN FRESHENING ONSHORE FLOW WED-THU.

&&

.AVIATION...
SFC WNDS: THRU 18/14Z...WRLY AOB 5KTS BCMG N/NE 5-10KTS AFT SUNRISE.
BTWN 18/14Z-18/18Z...BCMG E/NE 8-12KTS...CONTG THRU 19/00Z. AFT
19/00Z...BCMG E/SE AOB 5KTS.

CIGS/VSBYS: THRU 19/06Z...PREVAILING VFR ALL SITES...BRIEF IFR/LIFR
CIGS E OF KMLB-KOBE. BTWN 18/20Z-18/24Z SLGT CHC MVFR SHRAS ALONG
AND N OF I-4.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY-TONIGHT...LOW LVL TROF AXIS OVER JUST N OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE
WILL PUSH INTO S FL AND STALL AS A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST LIFTS INTO THE NW ATLC. WEAK HI PRES OVER NEW ENGLAND
AND THE MID ATLC STATES WILL NUDGE ITS WAY OFF THE ERN SEABOARD...
ALLOWING SFC/BNDRY LYR WINDS OVER THE LCL ATLC TO VEER TO THE N/NE
BY MIDDAY...THEN TO THE E BY LATE AFTN...STEADY SPEEDS BTWN 8-12KTS.
LONG PD SWELLS FROM HURRICANE EDOUARD WILL DAMPEN OVER THE LCL ATLC
THRU THE DAY...SUBSIDING TO 2-3FT NEARSHORE AND 3-4FT OFFSHORE
TODAY...THEN 2-3FT AREAWIDE TONIGHT. ISOLD SHRAS LIMITED TO THE GULF
STREAM.

FRI-MON...SLIGHT FRESHENING OF THE ONSHORE WINDS EXPECTED ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE DEVELOPING SFC LOW SAT-SAT NIGHT WITH SEAS TO AROUND 4FT
WELL OFFSHORE. OTHERWISE...SEAS MAINLY 2-3FT WITH WINDS BELOW 15KT
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  87  74  83  71 /  20  10  60  40
MCO  91  73  87  69 /  20  20  60  50
MLB  87  75  84  73 /  20  10  70  50
VRB  86  73  85  73 /  20  10  70  50
LEE  91  74  88  68 /  20  20  60  40
SFB  91  74  86  70 /  20  20  60  40
ORL  91  74  86  69 /  20  20  60  50
FPR  87  73  86  73 /  30  10  70  50

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRAGAW
LONG TERM....CRISTALDI
AVIATION...BRAGAW










000
FXUS62 KMLB 180758
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
355 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY...
BAND OF RELATIVELY DRY AIR OVER CNTRL FL IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK TROF
AXIS OVER S FL. RUC40 ANALYSIS SHOWS PWAT VALUES AOA 2.0" OVER THE S
PENINSULA...DECREASING TO 1.5"-1.6" OVER THE NRN PENINSULA...THEN
INCREASING TO ARND 1.8" OVER THE PANHANDLE DUE TO MOISTURE POOLING
IN THE VCNTY OF A STALLED FRONTAL BNDRY OVER THE DEEP SOUTH.
ALOFT...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPSTREAM MID LVL VORTICITY OUTSIDE OF A
WEAK BAND IN THE VCNTY OF THE FRONT...UPR LVL CONVERGENCE THRU THE
H30-H20 LYR AS THE MID/UPR TROF HAS WORKS ITS WAY E OF THE I-4
CORRIDOR...H70 TEMPS BTWN 7-8C...H50 TEMPS ARND -6C...RESULTING IN
WEAK LAPSE RATES BTWN 4.5-5.0C/KM.

TODAY-TONIGHT...
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ORGANIZED PRECIP TODAY AS THE RELATIVELY STABLE
AIRMASS OVERHEAD LIMITS VERTICAL MOTION...WHILE DRY AIR ALOFT LIMITS
POTENTIAL FOR CU DVLPMNT. BROAD LOW PRES OVER THE W ATLC WILL LIFT
NE...ALLOWING HI PRES TO BUILD DOWN THE ERN SEABOARD IN ITS WAKE. AS
IT DOES...LIGHT NWRLY WINDS THRU THE H100-H85 LYR WILL VEER TO THE
NE BY MIDDAY...THEN TO THE E THRU SUNSET.

NW/NE FLOW REGIMES TYPICALLY DO NOT PRODUCE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
THUNDER OVER CENTRAL FL. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT PRECIP WITH SFC
DEWPOINTS IN THE L70S AND H100-H70 MEAN RH VALUES RUINING BTWN
70-80PCT. HOWEVER...THE DLVPG ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIMIT THE WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY FOR COASTAL TSRA DVLPMNT. INTERIOR WILL HAVE A BETTER
OPPORTUNITY AS NEAR FULL SUN WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH THEIR
CONVECTIVE TRIGGERS BY EARLY AFTN. HOWEVER...WITH PWAT VALUES
EXPECTED TO DROP TO ARND 1.6"...CHANCES WILL BE AOB 20PCT OVER MOST
OF THE AREA....WITH GO WITH 30 POPS ARND LAKE OKEECHOBEE DUE TO
SLIGHTLY HIGHER MOISTURE PROFILE. PRECIP SHOULD BURN OUT BY SUNSET
OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER.

DVLPG ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS ALONG THE COAST IN THE
M/U80S...INTERIOR WARMING INTO THE L90S. MIN TEMPS HOLDING IN THE
L/M70S AREAWIDE OVERNIGHT AS THE CONTINUING ONSHORE FLOW WILL
QUICKLY MODIFY WHATEVER LOW DEWPOINT AIR THAT MANAGES TO FILTER INTO
THE CWA.

FRI-SUN...
IN THE SHORT RANGE THE ECM HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE GFS W/R/T THE
EVOLUTION OF THE RATHER TRANSIENT CUTOFF H50 LOW FORECAST TO
DEVELOP ALONG/OFFSHORE THE SERN SEABOARD AND THE NRN HALF OF FL
FRIDAY NIGHT-SAT. SHORT WAVE ENERGY DIVING SE COUPLED WITH A SHEARED
OFF PIECE OF REMNANT MID LEVEL VORTICITY FROM FORMER EPAC HURCN
"ODILE" WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE THE FEATURE THROUGH 12Z SAT WITH THE
POS TILT FEATURE EJECTING OUT AND OPENING UP NE OF FL SAT NIGHT-SUN
AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING DEEP ERN CONUS TROUGH. FORCED ASCENT WILL
YIELD PRES FALLS EAST OF FL...WITH BAROCLINIC SFC WAVE/LOW
DEVELOPMENT NEAR/NORTH OF THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
LATE SAT NIGHT...BEFORE RACING OFF THE NE ON SUN.

HGTS FALLS ALOFT WILL LEAD TO INCREASING RAIN/STORM CHCS FRI-SAT
(60-70) WITH THE BOTH GLOBAL MODELS SHOWING A LITTLE MORE MID LVL
TROUGHINESS LINGERING OVHD...AND LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE DRYING
BEHIND THE SFC LOW ON SUN. AS A RESULT...RAISED POPS UP TO 40-50
FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND. CLOUDS/PRECIP SHOULD HOLD
TEMPS DOWN BELOW CLIMO...PRIMARILY FRI-SAT.

MON-THU...
NEXT WEEK STARTS OFF WITH WEAK HIGH PRES IN PLACE OVER ECFL...WHILE
A DEEP LAYER ERN CONUS TROUGH DRIVES A COLD FRONT WELL INTO THE SERN
CONUS. TYPICAL OF MANY EARLY FALL ATTEMPTS OF MODIFIED POLAR AIRMASS
INTRUSIONS TOWARD/INTO NORTH AND CTRL FL...THE ACTUAL BOUNDARY WILL
GET BRIDGED BY STRONG HIGH PRES TO ITS NORTH WITH STOUT ONSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPING FROM MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

COUPLED WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE...THIS WILL LEAD TO MORE OF A
SHOWERY TYPE PATTERN WITH A MORE DIFFUSE ECSB LEADING TO LESS TS
COVERAGE BY WED-THU. MAX TEMPS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO MON-TUE
WILL DROP BACK IN FRESHENING ONSHORE FLOW WED-THU.

&&

.AVIATION...
SFC WNDS: THRU 18/14Z...WRLY AOB 5KTS BCMG N/NE 5-10KTS AFT SUNRISE.
BTWN 18/14Z-18/18Z...BCMG E/NE 8-12KTS...CONTG THRU 19/00Z. AFT
19/00Z...BCMG E/SE AOB 5KTS.

CIGS/VSBYS: THRU 19/06Z...PREVAILING VFR ALL SITES...BRIEF IFR/LIFR
CIGS E OF KMLB-KOBE. BTWN 18/20Z-18/24Z SLGT CHC MVFR SHRAS ALONG
AND N OF I-4.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY-TONIGHT...LOW LVL TROF AXIS OVER JUST N OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE
WILL PUSH INTO S FL AND STALL AS A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST LIFTS INTO THE NW ATLC. WEAK HI PRES OVER NEW ENGLAND
AND THE MID ATLC STATES WILL NUDGE ITS WAY OFF THE ERN SEABOARD...
ALLOWING SFC/BNDRY LYR WINDS OVER THE LCL ATLC TO VEER TO THE N/NE
BY MIDDAY...THEN TO THE E BY LATE AFTN...STEADY SPEEDS BTWN 8-12KTS.
LONG PD SWELLS FROM HURRICANE EDOUARD WILL DAMPEN OVER THE LCL ATLC
THRU THE DAY...SUBSIDING TO 2-3FT NEARSHORE AND 3-4FT OFFSHORE
TODAY...THEN 2-3FT AREAWIDE TONIGHT. ISOLD SHRAS LIMITED TO THE GULF
STREAM.

FRI-MON...SLIGHT FRESHENING OF THE ONSHORE WINDS EXPECTED ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE DEVELOPING SFC LOW SAT-SAT NIGHT WITH SEAS TO AROUND 4FT
WELL OFFSHORE. OTHERWISE...SEAS MAINLY 2-3FT WITH WINDS BELOW 15KT
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  87  74  83  71 /  20  10  60  40
MCO  91  73  87  69 /  20  20  60  50
MLB  87  75  84  73 /  20  10  70  50
VRB  86  73  85  73 /  20  10  70  50
LEE  91  74  88  68 /  20  20  60  40
SFB  91  74  86  70 /  20  20  60  40
ORL  91  74  86  69 /  20  20  60  50
FPR  87  73  86  73 /  30  10  70  50

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRAGAW
LONG TERM....CRISTALDI
AVIATION...BRAGAW









000
FXUS62 KMLB 180137
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
936 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...EXTENSIVE MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER LIMITED MOST
CONVECTION TO LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE MAIN EXCEPTION WAS A LIGHT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT
DEVELOPED ALONG A WEAK BOUNDARY THAT PUSHED IN FROM THE NE THROUGH
VOLUSIA AND NORTH BREVARD...PRODUCING A FEW FUNNEL CLOUDS AND A
WATERSPOUT ON THE INTRACOASTAL NEAR MIMS. THE BOUNDARY HAS
DIMINISHED THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER LAND WITH A FEW SHOWERS
AND STORMS OVER THE LOCAL ATLANTIC.

COULD SEE A FEW SPRINKLES OVER THE TREASURE COAST AND AROUND LAKE
OKEECHOBEE THROUGH LATE EVENING CLOSER TO THE MORE DEFINED BOUNDARY
OVER S FLORIDA. THE COMBINATION OF A WEAK BOUNDARY IN THE
VICINITY...HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT/CALM WINDS WILL LIKELY
BRING LOCAL FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT AS CLEARING SKIES
ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP TO THEIR DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...
A FEW SPRINKLES POSSIBLE VCNTY KOBE-KFPR-KSUA THROUGH 18/04Z. MOIST
GROUND AND COOLER TEMPS WILL ALLOW FOR PATCHY MVFR FOG/STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT IN FAVORED LOCATIONS PERIODICALLY AFFECTING MOST TAF
SITES OVERNIGHT.

DRIER AIR WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES LOW ON THURSDAY WITH BEST COVERAGE
CLOSER TO FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF KMLB-KISM. EXPECT EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE TO DEVELOP AND PUSH INLAND QUICKLY AIDED BY SYNOPTIC EAST-NE
FLOW BEHIND FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...

OVERALL WAVE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE TOO HIGH WITH SEAS CURRENTLY
RUNNING 3-4FT BOTH AT NEARSHORE BUOYS AND AT BUOY 41009. DOMINANT
PERIODS REMAIN VERY LONG AT 14-15SEC AS WE CONTINUE TO FEEL THE
SWELL FROM THE VERY DISTANT EDOUARD.

SEAS SLOWLY DIMINISH INTO TOMORROW WITH 3-5FT TONIGHT BECOMING 3-4FT
TOMORROW AS DOMINANT PERIODS DROP A FEW SECONDS TO 12-13SEC.

SMALL CRAFT WILL STILL NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION NEAR
INLETS...ESPECIALLY EARLY THURS MORN SURROUNDING THE OUTGOING
TIDE...AS THE VERY LONG SWELL PERIODS MAKE BOATING HAZARDOUS HERE.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...MOSES
RADAR/IMPACT WEATHER....LASCODY










000
FXUS62 KMLB 171854
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
253 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT-TONIGHT...CLOUD COVER HAS EFFECTIVELY STYMIED SHOWER AND
STORM CHANCES ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA THUS FAR AS WELL AS
STABILIZED THE ATMOSPHERE. FORECAST MAXES WILL REALIZE AT LEAST A
FEW DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE/FORECAST BY THE END OF THE DAY. A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE DOWN THE PENINSULA
TONIGHT WITH THE AIRMASS BECOMING A BIT MORE STABLE. UNTIL THEN
STILL CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY NEAR AND NORTH
OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR. SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE SOUTH
OF HERE INTO EARLY EVENING. MIN TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

...PREVIOUS EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION...

THU-SAT...SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL DIG INTO THE BROAD TROUGH COVERING
THE ERN CONUS AND WRN ATLC...RESULTING IN THE FORMATION OF A CUTOFF
LOW (ALBEIT ELONGATED WITH A POS TILTED AXIS) ACROSS NORTH/CENTRAL
FL AND EXTENDING INTO THE ADJCT ATLC. DEW PT FRONT INITIALLY OVER
THE NORTHERN PENINSULA WILL DRIFT SWD OVER THE REGION AND THEN STALL
NEAR LAKE OKEE AS WEAK LOW PRES WAVE DEVELOPS OFFSHORE THE SERN
SEABOARD. AFTER AN INITIALLY DRIER DAY ON THU...MEAN MOISTURE WILL
SHOW SOME SLIGHT NWD CREEP INTO THE WEEKEND WITH POPS COMING BACK UP
TO ABOVE CLIMO NORMS (50 TO 60 PERCENT) FOR FRI-SAT. TEMPS WILL TREND
SLIGHTLY LOWER ON FRI-SAT COMPARED TO THU OWING TO INCREASING CLOUD
COVER.

SUN-TUE...THE GFS/ECM MODELS DIFFER SLIGHTLY WITH RESPECT TO THE
SPEED IN WHICH THE (BRIEFLY) CUTOFF LOW OVHD OPENS UP INTO A TROUGH
AND EJECTS NEWD. THE GFS IS FASTER...AND A BIT STRONGER WITH THE
ATTENDANT SFC LOW/WAVE...WHICH DRIES THINGS OUT TO A LITTLE MORE
EXTENT THAN THE ECM SUN. BOTH MODELS SHOW ANOTHER EARLY FALL SEASON
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ENCROACHING UPON THE NORTHERN PENINSULA BY TUE...
POSSIBLY SAGGING SWD INTO THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...
BUT TOO EARLY TO SPECULATE AT LENGTH ABOUT ANY SWD PUSH JUST YET.
OVERALL POP TREND WILL BE SLOWLY UPWARD FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPS
NOT TOO FAR FROM CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION...WESTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME LIGHT AGAIN THIS EVENING.
CLOUD COVER HAS SHUT DOWN SURFACE HEATING STABILIZING THE ATMOSPHERE
AND THUS REDUCING SHRA/TSRA CHANCES EVEN WITH A VERY MOIST
ATMOSPHERE. ISOLD ACTIVITY STILL FEASIBLE NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR
WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION IN PLAY FURTHER SOUTH INTO THIS EVENING.
TEMPO IFR/MVFR CONDS WILL OCCUR WITH ANY SHOWERS/STORMS. DRIER
CONDITIONS RETURNING FOR THU.

&&

.MARINE...CURRENT-TONIGHT...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY
WILL STILL BE THE FOCUS FOR POSSIBLE SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS INTO
THIS EVENING. A FEW CELLS MAY STILL MOVE OFF THE COAST BETWEEN
FLAGLER BEACH-JUPITER INLET...WITH HIGHER PROBABILITIES SOUTH FROM
SEBASTIAN INLET. GUSTY WINDS...LIGHTNING AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS MAY
ACCOMPANY ANY CONVECTION.

VERY LONG PERIOD SWELLS ARE AFFECTING THE COASTAL WATERS CURRENTLY
THANKS TO TC EDOUARD. WHILE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS NOT HANDLED
INCREASING SEA HEIGHTS WELL...SMALL CRAFT WILL STILL NEED TO
EXERCISE CAUTION NEAR INLETS...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON SURROUNDING
THE OUTGOING TIDE...AS THE VERY LONG SWELL PERIODS MAKE BOATING
HAZARDOUS HERE. WILL CONTINUE SEAS 4-5 FT OFFSHORE TONIGHT WITH 3-4
FT SEAS NEAR SHORE.

RIP CURRENTS: LONG PERIOD SWELLS WILL AFFECT THE COAST RESULTING IN
DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND A HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS
INTO THURSDAY.

...PREVIOUS EXTENDED MARINE DISCUSSION...

THU-SUN...ANY RESIDUAL SWELL FROM EDOUARD WILL BE WANING THU...WITH
MINIMAL WIND CHOP INDICATED INTO THIS WEEKEND. WINDS GENERALLY BELOW
15KT WITH SEAS MOSTLY IN THE 2-3FT RANGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  73  88  73  84 /  20  20  20  60
MCO  73  91  72  86 /  30  20  20  60
MLB  73  86  75  86 /  40  20  20  60
VRB  72  88  73  87 /  50  30  20  60
LEE  73  92  74  87 /  20  20  20  60
SFB  73  91  75  87 /  20  20  20  60
ORL  73  90  75  87 /  30  20  20  60
FPR  72  88  72  86 /  50  30  20  60

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...SEDLOCK
RADAR/IMPACT WEATHER....KELLY







000
FXUS62 KMLB 171854
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
253 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT-TONIGHT...CLOUD COVER HAS EFFECTIVELY STYMIED SHOWER AND
STORM CHANCES ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA THUS FAR AS WELL AS
STABILIZED THE ATMOSPHERE. FORECAST MAXES WILL REALIZE AT LEAST A
FEW DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE/FORECAST BY THE END OF THE DAY. A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE DOWN THE PENINSULA
TONIGHT WITH THE AIRMASS BECOMING A BIT MORE STABLE. UNTIL THEN
STILL CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY NEAR AND NORTH
OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR. SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE SOUTH
OF HERE INTO EARLY EVENING. MIN TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

...PREVIOUS EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION...

THU-SAT...SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL DIG INTO THE BROAD TROUGH COVERING
THE ERN CONUS AND WRN ATLC...RESULTING IN THE FORMATION OF A CUTOFF
LOW (ALBEIT ELONGATED WITH A POS TILTED AXIS) ACROSS NORTH/CENTRAL
FL AND EXTENDING INTO THE ADJCT ATLC. DEW PT FRONT INITIALLY OVER
THE NORTHERN PENINSULA WILL DRIFT SWD OVER THE REGION AND THEN STALL
NEAR LAKE OKEE AS WEAK LOW PRES WAVE DEVELOPS OFFSHORE THE SERN
SEABOARD. AFTER AN INITIALLY DRIER DAY ON THU...MEAN MOISTURE WILL
SHOW SOME SLIGHT NWD CREEP INTO THE WEEKEND WITH POPS COMING BACK UP
TO ABOVE CLIMO NORMS (50 TO 60 PERCENT) FOR FRI-SAT. TEMPS WILL TREND
SLIGHTLY LOWER ON FRI-SAT COMPARED TO THU OWING TO INCREASING CLOUD
COVER.

SUN-TUE...THE GFS/ECM MODELS DIFFER SLIGHTLY WITH RESPECT TO THE
SPEED IN WHICH THE (BRIEFLY) CUTOFF LOW OVHD OPENS UP INTO A TROUGH
AND EJECTS NEWD. THE GFS IS FASTER...AND A BIT STRONGER WITH THE
ATTENDANT SFC LOW/WAVE...WHICH DRIES THINGS OUT TO A LITTLE MORE
EXTENT THAN THE ECM SUN. BOTH MODELS SHOW ANOTHER EARLY FALL SEASON
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ENCROACHING UPON THE NORTHERN PENINSULA BY TUE...
POSSIBLY SAGGING SWD INTO THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...
BUT TOO EARLY TO SPECULATE AT LENGTH ABOUT ANY SWD PUSH JUST YET.
OVERALL POP TREND WILL BE SLOWLY UPWARD FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPS
NOT TOO FAR FROM CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION...WESTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME LIGHT AGAIN THIS EVENING.
CLOUD COVER HAS SHUT DOWN SURFACE HEATING STABILIZING THE ATMOSPHERE
AND THUS REDUCING SHRA/TSRA CHANCES EVEN WITH A VERY MOIST
ATMOSPHERE. ISOLD ACTIVITY STILL FEASIBLE NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR
WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION IN PLAY FURTHER SOUTH INTO THIS EVENING.
TEMPO IFR/MVFR CONDS WILL OCCUR WITH ANY SHOWERS/STORMS. DRIER
CONDITIONS RETURNING FOR THU.

&&

.MARINE...CURRENT-TONIGHT...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY
WILL STILL BE THE FOCUS FOR POSSIBLE SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS INTO
THIS EVENING. A FEW CELLS MAY STILL MOVE OFF THE COAST BETWEEN
FLAGLER BEACH-JUPITER INLET...WITH HIGHER PROBABILITIES SOUTH FROM
SEBASTIAN INLET. GUSTY WINDS...LIGHTNING AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS MAY
ACCOMPANY ANY CONVECTION.

VERY LONG PERIOD SWELLS ARE AFFECTING THE COASTAL WATERS CURRENTLY
THANKS TO TC EDOUARD. WHILE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS NOT HANDLED
INCREASING SEA HEIGHTS WELL...SMALL CRAFT WILL STILL NEED TO
EXERCISE CAUTION NEAR INLETS...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON SURROUNDING
THE OUTGOING TIDE...AS THE VERY LONG SWELL PERIODS MAKE BOATING
HAZARDOUS HERE. WILL CONTINUE SEAS 4-5 FT OFFSHORE TONIGHT WITH 3-4
FT SEAS NEAR SHORE.

RIP CURRENTS: LONG PERIOD SWELLS WILL AFFECT THE COAST RESULTING IN
DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND A HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS
INTO THURSDAY.

...PREVIOUS EXTENDED MARINE DISCUSSION...

THU-SUN...ANY RESIDUAL SWELL FROM EDOUARD WILL BE WANING THU...WITH
MINIMAL WIND CHOP INDICATED INTO THIS WEEKEND. WINDS GENERALLY BELOW
15KT WITH SEAS MOSTLY IN THE 2-3FT RANGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  73  88  73  84 /  20  20  20  60
MCO  73  91  72  86 /  30  20  20  60
MLB  73  86  75  86 /  40  20  20  60
VRB  72  88  73  87 /  50  30  20  60
LEE  73  92  74  87 /  20  20  20  60
SFB  73  91  75  87 /  20  20  20  60
ORL  73  90  75  87 /  30  20  20  60
FPR  72  88  72  86 /  50  30  20  60

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...SEDLOCK
RADAR/IMPACT WEATHER....KELLY






000
FXUS62 KMLB 171344
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
944 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT-TONIGHT...KXMR 10Z MORNING SOUNDING AGAIN MOIST WITH A
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 2.16 INCHES. TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID-LEVELS AT 700/500 MB RESPECTIVELY AT +7.2C/-6.7C. INSTABILITY
COULD BE IN JEOPARDY THIS AFTERNOON WITH PRESENT CLOUD COVER AND
BLOW-OFF FROM CONVECTION IN WEST-CENTRAL FL ALREADY. A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LIES ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL FL THIS MORNING WITH IMPRESSIVE
MID-UPPER LEVEL DRYING MOVING INTO EXTREME NORTH FLORIDA AS VIEWED
ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTHWARD
INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA DURING THE DAY. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON FORECAST WITH AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE LATER IN THE
DAY WITH ADDITIONAL SURFACE HEATING...SHOULD ANY OCCUR. THE EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE WILL BE INHIBITED WITH THE STRONGER/DEEPER WESTERLY
FLOW TODAY. STRONGER CELLS...SHOULD WE SEE ANY THIS AFTERNOON...MORE
FAVORABLE SOUTH OF ORLANDO.

WITH CLOUD COVER AND RAIN COOLED AIR...FORECAST MAXES WELL INTO THE
80S MAY BE TOO HIGH. NO SIGNIFICANT COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TONIGHT SO MIN TEMPS STILL IN THE L/M70S. ANY
CONVECTION STILL AROUND BY SUNSET WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH
LATE EVENING. DEPENDING ON PROGRESS OF FRONT/MORE DRY STABLE
AIR...CANNOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT ISOLATED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...CURRENT SW FLOW EXPECTED TO VEER THROUGH THE DAY TO W
AND THEN NW BY LATE IN THE DAY. FLOW WILL BE TOO STRONG NEAR THE
COAST TO ALLOW FOR ECSB DEVELOPMENT TODAY. CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED
WITH WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER N-C FL LIKELY TO PLAY HAVOC WITH
AFTERNOON INSTABILITY...THOUGH WE MAY STILL SEE SCT SHRA`S WITH
ISOLD TSRA`S...ESPECIALLY SOUTH FROM KMCO. DEPENDING ON AFTERNOON
HEATING WE COULD STILL SEE A FEW STRONG CELLS WITH GUSTY DOWNBURST
WINDS...OTHERWISE OCNL LIGHTNING AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS THE MAIN
THREATS. TEMPO IFR/MVFR CONDS WILL OCCUR WITH ANY SHOWERS/STORMS.

&&

.MARINE...TODAY-TONIGHT...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER NORTH CENTRAL
FLORIDA WILL CONTINUE SAGGING SOUTHWARD DURING THIS TIME. VERY LONG
PERIOD SWELLS AFFECTING THE COASTAL WATERS CURRENTLY...THANKS TO TC
EDOUARD FURTHER OUT IN THE ATLANTIC. CONTINUE CAUTIONARY STATEMENTS
OFFSHORE FOR WINDS 15 PLUS KTS (HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE) WITH SEAS
FORECAST TO BUILD TO 4-6 FT (REMAIN SKEPTICAL THAT THIS MAY BE TOO
HIGH). SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION NEAR INLETS...ESPECIALLY
AROUND THE OUTGOING TIDE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE LONGER PERIOD
SWELLS. SEAS TO BUILD 3-4 FT CLOSER TOWARDS THE COAST. WESTERLY FLOW
TOO STRONG TODAY TO ALLOW FOR ECSB FORMATION.

ANOTHER CONCERN FOR BOATERS WILL BE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STORMS WITH A FEW PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AS THEY MOVE
OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET.

RIP CURRENTS: LONG PERIOD SWELLS WILL AFFECT THE COAST RESULTING IN
DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND A HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

SEDLOCK/KELLY






000
FXUS62 KMLB 171344
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
944 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT-TONIGHT...KXMR 10Z MORNING SOUNDING AGAIN MOIST WITH A
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 2.16 INCHES. TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID-LEVELS AT 700/500 MB RESPECTIVELY AT +7.2C/-6.7C. INSTABILITY
COULD BE IN JEOPARDY THIS AFTERNOON WITH PRESENT CLOUD COVER AND
BLOW-OFF FROM CONVECTION IN WEST-CENTRAL FL ALREADY. A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LIES ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL FL THIS MORNING WITH IMPRESSIVE
MID-UPPER LEVEL DRYING MOVING INTO EXTREME NORTH FLORIDA AS VIEWED
ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTHWARD
INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA DURING THE DAY. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON FORECAST WITH AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE LATER IN THE
DAY WITH ADDITIONAL SURFACE HEATING...SHOULD ANY OCCUR. THE EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE WILL BE INHIBITED WITH THE STRONGER/DEEPER WESTERLY
FLOW TODAY. STRONGER CELLS...SHOULD WE SEE ANY THIS AFTERNOON...MORE
FAVORABLE SOUTH OF ORLANDO.

WITH CLOUD COVER AND RAIN COOLED AIR...FORECAST MAXES WELL INTO THE
80S MAY BE TOO HIGH. NO SIGNIFICANT COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TONIGHT SO MIN TEMPS STILL IN THE L/M70S. ANY
CONVECTION STILL AROUND BY SUNSET WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH
LATE EVENING. DEPENDING ON PROGRESS OF FRONT/MORE DRY STABLE
AIR...CANNOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT ISOLATED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...CURRENT SW FLOW EXPECTED TO VEER THROUGH THE DAY TO W
AND THEN NW BY LATE IN THE DAY. FLOW WILL BE TOO STRONG NEAR THE
COAST TO ALLOW FOR ECSB DEVELOPMENT TODAY. CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED
WITH WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER N-C FL LIKELY TO PLAY HAVOC WITH
AFTERNOON INSTABILITY...THOUGH WE MAY STILL SEE SCT SHRA`S WITH
ISOLD TSRA`S...ESPECIALLY SOUTH FROM KMCO. DEPENDING ON AFTERNOON
HEATING WE COULD STILL SEE A FEW STRONG CELLS WITH GUSTY DOWNBURST
WINDS...OTHERWISE OCNL LIGHTNING AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS THE MAIN
THREATS. TEMPO IFR/MVFR CONDS WILL OCCUR WITH ANY SHOWERS/STORMS.

&&

.MARINE...TODAY-TONIGHT...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER NORTH CENTRAL
FLORIDA WILL CONTINUE SAGGING SOUTHWARD DURING THIS TIME. VERY LONG
PERIOD SWELLS AFFECTING THE COASTAL WATERS CURRENTLY...THANKS TO TC
EDOUARD FURTHER OUT IN THE ATLANTIC. CONTINUE CAUTIONARY STATEMENTS
OFFSHORE FOR WINDS 15 PLUS KTS (HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE) WITH SEAS
FORECAST TO BUILD TO 4-6 FT (REMAIN SKEPTICAL THAT THIS MAY BE TOO
HIGH). SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION NEAR INLETS...ESPECIALLY
AROUND THE OUTGOING TIDE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE LONGER PERIOD
SWELLS. SEAS TO BUILD 3-4 FT CLOSER TOWARDS THE COAST. WESTERLY FLOW
TOO STRONG TODAY TO ALLOW FOR ECSB FORMATION.

ANOTHER CONCERN FOR BOATERS WILL BE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STORMS WITH A FEW PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AS THEY MOVE
OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET.

RIP CURRENTS: LONG PERIOD SWELLS WILL AFFECT THE COAST RESULTING IN
DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND A HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

SEDLOCK/KELLY







000
FXUS62 KMLB 170901 AAA
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
500 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT...
NEARLY SATURATED AIRMASS OVER CENTRAL FL WITH EVENING RAOBS
MEASURING PWAT VALUES BTWN 2.0"-2.2". LATEST RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS A
WELL DEFINED H100-H70 TROF EXTENDING FROM THE NC OUTER BANKS TO THE
NE GOMEX...ASSOCD WITH A STALLED FRONTAL BNDRY OVER THE DEEP SOUTH.
ALOFT...A FEW POCKETS OF NOTEWORTHY MID LVL VORTICITY OVER THE
GOMEX/N FL...UPR LVL DIVERGENCE IS WEAK AS THE CLOSEST H30-H20 JET
STREAK IS LAGGING BACK OVER THE LWR MS VALLEY. MID LVL TEMPS ARE
RUNNING BTWN 7-8C AT H70...AND ARND -7C AT H50...RESULTING IN
UNIMPRESSIVE LAPSE RATES ARND 5.5C/KM.

TODAY-TONIGHT...
A BROAD SFC LOW OVER GA/SC WILL SLOWLY CRANK THE STATIONARY FRONT
INTO CENTRAL FL. PROGRESS WILL BE SLOW...HOWEVER...AS THE JET STREAK
HAS A STRONG ZONAL ORIENTATION THAT PROVIDE LITTLE SWD PUSH. ATLC
RIDGE OVER S FL STRAITS WILL SLOW IT FURTHER...BUT IS QUITE WEAK AND
WILL NOT BE ABLE STOP THE FRONT AS THE LOW LIFTS UP THE ERN SEABOARD.

DEEP MOISTURE COUPLED WITH A THE MID LVL VORTICITY SHOULD ALLOW NMRS
SHRAS AND SCT TSRAS TO DVLP...BUT IT WILL TAKE A WHILE FOR THE LOW
LVL AIRMASS TO DESTABILIZE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE WEAK MID LVL LAPSE
RATES. FURTHERMORE...DEEP MOISTURE ALOFT SHOULD PRODUCE MID/UPR LVL
CLOUD DECKS THAT WILL HINDER SFC HEATING. EVEN SO...CANNOT OVERLOOK
SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY OVER THE ATLC/GOMEX THAT HAS BEEN ONGOING THRU
THE EVENING...ONCE SFC TEMPS REACH THEIR CONVECTIVE TRIGGERS...
PRECIP WILL LIKELY AREAWIDE. OVERALL INSTABILITY LOOKS MODEST AT
BEST...STRONG/SVR TSTM THREAT WILL BE QUITE LOW. SCT SHRAS/TSRAS AFT
SUNSET MAY LINGER INTO EARLY MORNING BUT WILL END AS WINDS VEER TO
THE NW AND PUSH DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR INTO CENTRAL FL.

CLOUD COVER AND RAIN COOLED AIR WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS NEAR AVG...
GENERALLY IN THE M/U80S. NO MEANINGFUL COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR
BEHIND THE FRONT...MIN TEMPS IN THE L/M70S WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABV AVG
DUE TO LINGERING CLOUD COVER.

THU-SAT...
SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL DIG INTO THE BROAD TROUGH COVERING THE ERN
CONUS AND WRN ATLC...RESULTING IN THE FORMATION OF A CUTOFF LOW
(ALBEIT ELONGATED WITH A POS TILTED AXIS) ACROSS NORTH/CENTRAL FL
AND EXTENDING INTO THE ADJCT ATLC. DEW PT FRONT INITIALLY OVER THE
NORTHERN PENINSULA WILL DRIFT SWD OVER THE REGION AND THEN STALL NEAR
LAKE OKEE AS WEAK LOW PRES WAVE DEVELOPS OFFSHORE THE SERN SEABOARD.
AFTER AN INITIALLY DRIER DAY ON THU...MEAN MOISTURE WILL SHOW SOME
SLIGHT NWD CREEP INTO THE WEEKEND WITH POPS COMING BACK UP TO NEAR
THE CLIMO NORMS (40-50). DEEPEST MOISTURE AND HIGHEST RAIN CHCS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN CLOSER THE LAKE THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPS WILL
TREND SLIGHTLY LOWER ON FRI-SAT COMPARED TO THU OWING TO INCREASING
CLOUD COVER.

SUN-TUE...
THE GFS/ECM MODELS DIFFER SLIGHTLY WITH RESPECT TO THE SPEED IN
WHICH THE (BRIEFLY) CUTOFF LOW OVHD OPENS UP INTO A TROUGH AND
EJECTS NEWD. THE GFS IS FASTER...AND A BIT STRONGER WITH THE
ATTENDANT SFC LOW/WAVE...WHICH DRIES THINGS OUT TO A LITTLE MORE
EXTENT THAN THE ECM SUN. BOTH MODELS SHOW ANOTHER EARLY FALL SEASON
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ENCROACHING UPON THE NORTHERN PENINSULA BY TUE...
POSSIBLY SAGGING SWD INTO THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...
BUT TOO EARLY TO SPECULATE AT LENGTH ABOUT ANY SWD PUSH JUST YET.
OVERALL POP TREND WILL BE SLOWLY UPWARD FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPS
NOT TOO FAR FROM CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION...
THRU 17/14Z...PREVAILING VFR ALL SITES WITH W/SW SFC WNDS ARND
5KTS...CIGS AOA FL120...SLGT CHC MVFR SHRAS. BTWN 17/14Z-17/17Z...
SFC WNDS BCMG W BTWN 5-10KTS...PREVAILING CIGS DCRSG TO FL060-080
WITH CHC OF MVFR SHRAS ALL SITES. BTWN 17/17Z-17/24...OCNL WRLY SFC
WND G18KTS...NMRS MVFR SHRAS/SCT IFR TSRAS. BTWN 18/00Z-18/03Z...
SFC WINDS BCMG W/NW AOB 5KTS...SCT MVFR SHRAS/ISOLD IFR TSRAS
ENDING...CIGS AOA FL120.

&&

.MARINE...

TODAY-TONIGHT...
LOW LVL TROF AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE NC OUTER BANKS TO THE NE GOMEX
HAS SUPPRESSED THE ATLC RIDGE AXIS INTO S FL AND THE FL STRAITS.
INTERACTION BTWN THESE TWO WX FEATURES WILL GENERATE A GENTLE TO
MODERATE WRLY BREEZE ACRS THE LCL ATLC THRU THE DAY...BCMG W/NW
OVERNIGHT AS THE TROF AXIS DRIFTS INTO S FL. LATEST OBS FROM BUOY010
SHOW THE MUCH ANTICIPATED SWELL FROM HURRICANE EDOUARD STARTING TO
WORK ITS WAY INTO THE LCL ATLC...THOUGH A BIT SLOWER THAN INDICATED
BY THE WAVE MODELS. SEAS WILL BUILD THRU THE DAY... REACHING 3-4FT
NEARSHORE AND 5-6FT OFFSHORE WITH DOMINANT PDS AOA 13SEC. THIS MAY
CAUSE VERY ROUGH CONDITIONS NEAR THE MOUTHS OF INLETS DURING THE
OUTGOING MORNING TIDE.

RIP CURRENTS: LONG PERIOD SWELLS WILL START TO AFFECT THE COAST WED
MORNING...RESULTING IN DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND A HIGH RISK OF
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS.

THU-SUN...
ANY RESIDUAL SWELL FROM EDOUARD WILL BE WANING THU...WITH MINIMAL
WIND CHOP INDICATED INTO THIS WEEKEND. WINDS GENERALLY BELOW 15KT
WITH SEAS MOSTLY IN THE 2-3FT RANGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  87  73  89  73 /  60  30  20  10
MCO  90  73  92  72 /  60  30  20  10
MLB  89  73  87  75 /  60  40  20  10
VRB  89  72  89  73 /  60  40  20  10
LEE  89  73  93  74 /  60  30  20  10
SFB  90  73  92  75 /  60  30  20  10
ORL  90  73  91  75 /  60  30  20  10
FPR  88  72  89  72 /  60  40  30  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...BRAGAW
LONG TERM....CRISTALDI






000
FXUS62 KMLB 170901 AAA
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
500 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT...
NEARLY SATURATED AIRMASS OVER CENTRAL FL WITH EVENING RAOBS
MEASURING PWAT VALUES BTWN 2.0"-2.2". LATEST RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS A
WELL DEFINED H100-H70 TROF EXTENDING FROM THE NC OUTER BANKS TO THE
NE GOMEX...ASSOCD WITH A STALLED FRONTAL BNDRY OVER THE DEEP SOUTH.
ALOFT...A FEW POCKETS OF NOTEWORTHY MID LVL VORTICITY OVER THE
GOMEX/N FL...UPR LVL DIVERGENCE IS WEAK AS THE CLOSEST H30-H20 JET
STREAK IS LAGGING BACK OVER THE LWR MS VALLEY. MID LVL TEMPS ARE
RUNNING BTWN 7-8C AT H70...AND ARND -7C AT H50...RESULTING IN
UNIMPRESSIVE LAPSE RATES ARND 5.5C/KM.

TODAY-TONIGHT...
A BROAD SFC LOW OVER GA/SC WILL SLOWLY CRANK THE STATIONARY FRONT
INTO CENTRAL FL. PROGRESS WILL BE SLOW...HOWEVER...AS THE JET STREAK
HAS A STRONG ZONAL ORIENTATION THAT PROVIDE LITTLE SWD PUSH. ATLC
RIDGE OVER S FL STRAITS WILL SLOW IT FURTHER...BUT IS QUITE WEAK AND
WILL NOT BE ABLE STOP THE FRONT AS THE LOW LIFTS UP THE ERN SEABOARD.

DEEP MOISTURE COUPLED WITH A THE MID LVL VORTICITY SHOULD ALLOW NMRS
SHRAS AND SCT TSRAS TO DVLP...BUT IT WILL TAKE A WHILE FOR THE LOW
LVL AIRMASS TO DESTABILIZE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE WEAK MID LVL LAPSE
RATES. FURTHERMORE...DEEP MOISTURE ALOFT SHOULD PRODUCE MID/UPR LVL
CLOUD DECKS THAT WILL HINDER SFC HEATING. EVEN SO...CANNOT OVERLOOK
SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY OVER THE ATLC/GOMEX THAT HAS BEEN ONGOING THRU
THE EVENING...ONCE SFC TEMPS REACH THEIR CONVECTIVE TRIGGERS...
PRECIP WILL LIKELY AREAWIDE. OVERALL INSTABILITY LOOKS MODEST AT
BEST...STRONG/SVR TSTM THREAT WILL BE QUITE LOW. SCT SHRAS/TSRAS AFT
SUNSET MAY LINGER INTO EARLY MORNING BUT WILL END AS WINDS VEER TO
THE NW AND PUSH DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR INTO CENTRAL FL.

CLOUD COVER AND RAIN COOLED AIR WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS NEAR AVG...
GENERALLY IN THE M/U80S. NO MEANINGFUL COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR
BEHIND THE FRONT...MIN TEMPS IN THE L/M70S WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABV AVG
DUE TO LINGERING CLOUD COVER.

THU-SAT...
SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL DIG INTO THE BROAD TROUGH COVERING THE ERN
CONUS AND WRN ATLC...RESULTING IN THE FORMATION OF A CUTOFF LOW
(ALBEIT ELONGATED WITH A POS TILTED AXIS) ACROSS NORTH/CENTRAL FL
AND EXTENDING INTO THE ADJCT ATLC. DEW PT FRONT INITIALLY OVER THE
NORTHERN PENINSULA WILL DRIFT SWD OVER THE REGION AND THEN STALL NEAR
LAKE OKEE AS WEAK LOW PRES WAVE DEVELOPS OFFSHORE THE SERN SEABOARD.
AFTER AN INITIALLY DRIER DAY ON THU...MEAN MOISTURE WILL SHOW SOME
SLIGHT NWD CREEP INTO THE WEEKEND WITH POPS COMING BACK UP TO NEAR
THE CLIMO NORMS (40-50). DEEPEST MOISTURE AND HIGHEST RAIN CHCS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN CLOSER THE LAKE THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPS WILL
TREND SLIGHTLY LOWER ON FRI-SAT COMPARED TO THU OWING TO INCREASING
CLOUD COVER.

SUN-TUE...
THE GFS/ECM MODELS DIFFER SLIGHTLY WITH RESPECT TO THE SPEED IN
WHICH THE (BRIEFLY) CUTOFF LOW OVHD OPENS UP INTO A TROUGH AND
EJECTS NEWD. THE GFS IS FASTER...AND A BIT STRONGER WITH THE
ATTENDANT SFC LOW/WAVE...WHICH DRIES THINGS OUT TO A LITTLE MORE
EXTENT THAN THE ECM SUN. BOTH MODELS SHOW ANOTHER EARLY FALL SEASON
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ENCROACHING UPON THE NORTHERN PENINSULA BY TUE...
POSSIBLY SAGGING SWD INTO THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...
BUT TOO EARLY TO SPECULATE AT LENGTH ABOUT ANY SWD PUSH JUST YET.
OVERALL POP TREND WILL BE SLOWLY UPWARD FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPS
NOT TOO FAR FROM CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION...
THRU 17/14Z...PREVAILING VFR ALL SITES WITH W/SW SFC WNDS ARND
5KTS...CIGS AOA FL120...SLGT CHC MVFR SHRAS. BTWN 17/14Z-17/17Z...
SFC WNDS BCMG W BTWN 5-10KTS...PREVAILING CIGS DCRSG TO FL060-080
WITH CHC OF MVFR SHRAS ALL SITES. BTWN 17/17Z-17/24...OCNL WRLY SFC
WND G18KTS...NMRS MVFR SHRAS/SCT IFR TSRAS. BTWN 18/00Z-18/03Z...
SFC WINDS BCMG W/NW AOB 5KTS...SCT MVFR SHRAS/ISOLD IFR TSRAS
ENDING...CIGS AOA FL120.

&&

.MARINE...

TODAY-TONIGHT...
LOW LVL TROF AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE NC OUTER BANKS TO THE NE GOMEX
HAS SUPPRESSED THE ATLC RIDGE AXIS INTO S FL AND THE FL STRAITS.
INTERACTION BTWN THESE TWO WX FEATURES WILL GENERATE A GENTLE TO
MODERATE WRLY BREEZE ACRS THE LCL ATLC THRU THE DAY...BCMG W/NW
OVERNIGHT AS THE TROF AXIS DRIFTS INTO S FL. LATEST OBS FROM BUOY010
SHOW THE MUCH ANTICIPATED SWELL FROM HURRICANE EDOUARD STARTING TO
WORK ITS WAY INTO THE LCL ATLC...THOUGH A BIT SLOWER THAN INDICATED
BY THE WAVE MODELS. SEAS WILL BUILD THRU THE DAY... REACHING 3-4FT
NEARSHORE AND 5-6FT OFFSHORE WITH DOMINANT PDS AOA 13SEC. THIS MAY
CAUSE VERY ROUGH CONDITIONS NEAR THE MOUTHS OF INLETS DURING THE
OUTGOING MORNING TIDE.

RIP CURRENTS: LONG PERIOD SWELLS WILL START TO AFFECT THE COAST WED
MORNING...RESULTING IN DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND A HIGH RISK OF
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS.

THU-SUN...
ANY RESIDUAL SWELL FROM EDOUARD WILL BE WANING THU...WITH MINIMAL
WIND CHOP INDICATED INTO THIS WEEKEND. WINDS GENERALLY BELOW 15KT
WITH SEAS MOSTLY IN THE 2-3FT RANGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  87  73  89  73 /  60  30  20  10
MCO  90  73  92  72 /  60  30  20  10
MLB  89  73  87  75 /  60  40  20  10
VRB  89  72  89  73 /  60  40  20  10
LEE  89  73  93  74 /  60  30  20  10
SFB  90  73  92  75 /  60  30  20  10
ORL  90  73  91  75 /  60  30  20  10
FPR  88  72  89  72 /  60  40  30  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...BRAGAW
LONG TERM....CRISTALDI







000
FXUS62 KMLB 170748
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
345 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT...
NEARLY SATURATED AIRMASS OVER CENTRAL FL WITH EVENING RAOBS
MEASURING PWAT VALUES BTWN 2.0"-2.2". LATEST RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS A
WELL DEFINED H100-H70 TROF EXTENDING FROM THE NC OUTER BANKS TO THE
NE GOMEX...ASSOCD WITH A STALLED FRONTAL BNDRY OVER THE DEEP SOUTH.
ALOFT...A FEW POCKETS OF NOTEWORTHY MID LVL VORTICITY OVER THE
GOMEX/N FL...UPR LVL DIVERGENCE IS WEAK AS THE CLOSEST H30-H20 JET
STREAK IS LAGGING BACK OVER THE LWR MS VALLEY. MID LVL TEMPS ARE
RUNNING BTWN 7-8C AT H70...AND ARND -7C AT H50...RESULTING IN
UNIMPRESSIVE LAPSE RATES ARND 5.5C/KM.

TODAY-TONIGHT...
A BROAD SFC LOW OVER GA/SC WILL SLOWLY CRANK THE STATIONARY FRONT
INTO CENTRAL FL. PROGRESS WILL BE SLOW...HOWEVER...AS THE JET STREAK
HAS A STRONG ZONAL ORIENTATION THAT PROVIDE LITTLE SWD PUSH. ATLC
RIDGE OVER S FL STRAITS WILL SLOW IT FURTHER...BUT IS QUITE WEAK AND
WILL NOT BE ABLE STOP THE FRONT AS THE LOW LIFTS UP THE ERN SEABOARD.

DEEP MOISTURE COUPLED WITH A THE MID LVL VORTICITY SHOULD ALLOW NMRS
SHRAS AND SCT TSRAS TO DVLP...BUT IT WILL TAKE A WHILE FOR THE LOW
LVL AIRMASS TO DESTABILIZE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE WEAK MID LVL LAPSE
RATES. FURTHERMORE...DEEP MOISTURE ALOFT SHOULD PRODUCE MID/UPR LVL
CLOUD DECKS THAT WILL HINDER SFC HEATING. EVEN SO...CANNOT OVERLOOK
SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY OVER THE ATLC/GOMEX THAT HAS BEEN ONGOING THRU
THE EVENING...ONCE SFC TEMPS REACH THEIR CONVECTIVE TRIGGERS...
PRECIP WILL LIKELY AREAWIDE. OVERALL INSTABILITY LOOKS MODEST AT
BEST...STRONG/SVR TSTM THREAT WILL BE QUITE LOW. SCT SHRAS/TSRAS AFT
SUNSET MAY LINGER INTO EARLY MORNING BUT WILL END AS WINDS VEER TO
THE NW AND PUSH DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR INTO CENTRAL FL.

CLOUD COVER AND RAIN COOLED AIR WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS NEAR AVG...
GENERALLY IN THE M/U80S. NO MEANINGFUL COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR
BEHIND THE FRONT...MIN TEMPS IN THE L/M70S WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABV AVG
DUE TO LINGERING CLOUD COVER.

THU-SAT...
SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL DIG INTO THE BROAD TROUGH COVERING THE ERN
CONUS AND WRN ATLC...RESULTING IN THE FORMATION OF A CUTOFF LOW
(ALBEIT ELONGATED WITH A POS TILTED AXIS) ACROSS NORTH/CENTRAL FL
AND EXTENDING INTO THE ADJCT ATLC. DEW PT FRONT INITIALLY OVER THE
NORTHERN PENINSULA WILL DRIFT SWD OVER THE REGION AND THEN STALL NEAR
LAKE OKEE AS WEAK LOW PRES WAVE DEVELOPS OFFSHORE THE SERN SEABOARD.
AFTER AN INITIALLY DRIER DAY ON THU...MEAN MOISTURE WILL SHOW SOME
SLIGHT NWD CREEP INTO THE WEEKEND WITH POPS COMING BACK UP TO NEAR
THE CLIMO NORMS (40-50). DEEPEST MOISTURE AND HIGHEST RAIN CHCS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN CLOSER THE LAKE THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPS WILL
TREND SLIGHTLY LOWER ON FRI-SAT COMPARED TO THU OWING TO INCREASING
CLOUD COVER.

SUN-TUE...
THE GFS/ECM MODELS DIFFER SLIGHTLY WITH RESPECT TO THE SPEED IN
WHICH THE (BRIEFLY) CUTOFF LOW OVHD OPENS UP INTO A TROUGH AND
EJECTS NEWD. THE GFS IS FASTER...AND A BIT STRONGER WITH THE
ATTENDANT SFC LOW/WAVE...WHICH DRIES THINGS OUT TO A LITTLE MORE
EXTENT THAN THE ECM SUN. BOTH MODELS SHOW ANOTHER EARLY FALL SEASON
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ENCROACHING UPON THE NORTHERN PENINSULA BY TUE...
POSSIBLY SAGGING SWD INTO THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...
BUT TOO EARLY TO SPECULATE AT LENGTH ABOUT ANY SWD PUSH JUST YET.
OVERALL POP TREND WILL BE SLOWLY UPWARD FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPS
NOT TOO FAR FROM CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION...
THRU 17/14Z...VFR ALL SITES WITH W/SW SFC WNDS ARND 5KTS...CIGS AOA
FL120...SLGT CHC MVFR SHRAS W OF KLEE-KOBE. BTWN 17/14Z-17/17Z...SFC
WNDS BCMG W BTWN 5-10KTS...PREVAILING CIGS DCRSG TO FL060-080 WITH
CHC OF MVFR SHRAS ALL SITES. BTWN 17/17Z-17/24...OCNL WRLY SFC WND
G18KTS...NMRS MVFR SHRAS/SCT IFR TSRAS. AFT 18/00Z...

&&

.MARINE...

TODAY-TONIGHT...
LOW LVL TROF AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE NC OUTER BANKS TO THE NE GOMEX
HAS SUPPRESSED THE ATLC RIDGE AXIS INTO S FL AND THE FL STRAITS.
INTERACTION BTWN THESE TWO WX FEATURES WILL GENERATE A GENTLE TO
MODERATE WRLY BREEZE ACRS THE LCL ATLC THRU THE DAY...BCMG W/NW
OVERNIGHT AS THE TROF AXIS DRIFTS INTO S FL. LATEST OBS FROM BUOY010
SHOW THE MUCH ANTICIPATED SWELL FROM HURRICANE EDOUARD STARTING TO
WORK ITS WAY INTO THE LCL ATLC...THOUGH A BIT SLOWER THAN INDICATED
BY THE WAVE MODELS. SEAS WILL BUILD THRU THE DAY... REACHING 3-4FT
NEARSHORE AND 5-6FT OFFSHORE WITH DOMINANT PDS AOA 13SEC. THIS MAY
CAUSE VERY ROUGH CONDITIONS NEAR THE MOUTHS OF INLETS DURING THE
OUTGOING MORNING TIDE.

RIP CURRENTS: LONG PERIOD SWELLS WILL START TO AFFECT THE COAST WED
MORNING...RESULTING IN DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND A HIGH RISK OF
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS.

THU-SUN...
ANY RESIDUAL SWELL FROM EDOUARD WILL BE WANING THU...WITH MINIMAL
WIND CHOP INDICATED INTO THIS WEEKEND. WINDS GENERALLY BELOW 15KT
WITH SEAS MOSTLY IN THE 2-3FT RANGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  87  73  89  73 /  60  30  20  10
MCO  90  73  92  72 /  60  30  20  10
MLB  89  73  87  75 /  60  40  20  10
VRB  89  72  89  73 /  60  40  20  10
LEE  89  73  93  74 /  60  30  20  10
SFB  90  73  92  75 /  60  30  20  10
ORL  90  73  91  75 /  60  30  20  10
FPR  88  72  89  72 /  60  40  30  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...BRAGAW
LONG TERM....CRISTALDI








000
FXUS62 KMLB 170136
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
936 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...

...EDOUARD SWELLS TO PRODUCE HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK WEDNESDAY...

TONIGHT-WED...AXIS OF TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY WILL SLIDE INTO THE ATLANTIC...WHICH WILL CAUSE A FRONTAL
TROUGH TO SAG SOUTH INTO THE REGION WHILE GRADUALLY WEAKENING.  THE
AIR MASS WILL BE VERY MOIST AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT
SO WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION CHANCE POPS...MOSTLY FOR SHOWERS
AS INSTABILITY WANES OVERNIGHT.  CONVECTIVE BAND IN THE SOUTH WILL
LINGER A LITTLE WHILE LONGER THEN POPS LOOK TO BE IN THE SLIGHT
CHANCE RANGE OVERNIGHT.

THERE WILL BE A LOT OF CLOUDINESS TO START OFF WED SO INSTABILITY
WILL STAY LIMITED.  FILTERED SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW FOR WEAK HEATING
AND SOME INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON. SO WITH THE VERY MOIST
AIR MASS AND WEAK LARGE SCALE CONVERGENCE WITH FRONTAL TROUGH...
EXPECT LIKELY POPS OVER MOST OF THE AREA. SOME LOWER THETA E AIR MAY
SLIDE INTO THE FAR NORTH LATE AND DECREASE CLOUDINESS BUT OVERALL IT
WILL BE A QUITE CLOUDY DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VERY MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME AREAS
OF MVFR CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ESPECIALLY
KISM-KMCO-KTIX NORTHWARD.  THE CHANCE FOR STORMS WITH IFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD MAINLY BE DURING WED AFTERNOON AT MOST TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT-WED...FRONTAL TROUGH WILL SLIDE SOUTH INTO THE WATERS ON
WED.  THE GFS SHOWS A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH
WEST NORTHWEST FLOW REACHING 10-15 KNOTS.  THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SHOULD SPARK A FEW PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  LONG
PERIOD SWELLS FROM DISTANT HURRICANE EDOUARD ARE FORECAST TO START
AFFECTING THE WATERS EARLY WED MORNING.  THIS MAY CAUSE VERY ROUGH
CONDITIONS NEAR THE MOUTHS OF INLETS DURING THE OUTGOING MORNING
TIDE.

RIP CURRENT:  LONG PERIOD SWELLS WILL START TO AFFECT THE COAST WED
MORNING...RESULTING IN DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND A HIGH RISK OF
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

FORECASTS...LASCODY
RADAR/IMPACT WEATHER...WIMMER






000
FXUS62 KMLB 170136
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
936 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...

...EDOUARD SWELLS TO PRODUCE HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK WEDNESDAY...

TONIGHT-WED...AXIS OF TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY WILL SLIDE INTO THE ATLANTIC...WHICH WILL CAUSE A FRONTAL
TROUGH TO SAG SOUTH INTO THE REGION WHILE GRADUALLY WEAKENING.  THE
AIR MASS WILL BE VERY MOIST AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT
SO WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION CHANCE POPS...MOSTLY FOR SHOWERS
AS INSTABILITY WANES OVERNIGHT.  CONVECTIVE BAND IN THE SOUTH WILL
LINGER A LITTLE WHILE LONGER THEN POPS LOOK TO BE IN THE SLIGHT
CHANCE RANGE OVERNIGHT.

THERE WILL BE A LOT OF CLOUDINESS TO START OFF WED SO INSTABILITY
WILL STAY LIMITED.  FILTERED SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW FOR WEAK HEATING
AND SOME INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON. SO WITH THE VERY MOIST
AIR MASS AND WEAK LARGE SCALE CONVERGENCE WITH FRONTAL TROUGH...
EXPECT LIKELY POPS OVER MOST OF THE AREA. SOME LOWER THETA E AIR MAY
SLIDE INTO THE FAR NORTH LATE AND DECREASE CLOUDINESS BUT OVERALL IT
WILL BE A QUITE CLOUDY DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VERY MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME AREAS
OF MVFR CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ESPECIALLY
KISM-KMCO-KTIX NORTHWARD.  THE CHANCE FOR STORMS WITH IFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD MAINLY BE DURING WED AFTERNOON AT MOST TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT-WED...FRONTAL TROUGH WILL SLIDE SOUTH INTO THE WATERS ON
WED.  THE GFS SHOWS A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH
WEST NORTHWEST FLOW REACHING 10-15 KNOTS.  THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SHOULD SPARK A FEW PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  LONG
PERIOD SWELLS FROM DISTANT HURRICANE EDOUARD ARE FORECAST TO START
AFFECTING THE WATERS EARLY WED MORNING.  THIS MAY CAUSE VERY ROUGH
CONDITIONS NEAR THE MOUTHS OF INLETS DURING THE OUTGOING MORNING
TIDE.

RIP CURRENT:  LONG PERIOD SWELLS WILL START TO AFFECT THE COAST WED
MORNING...RESULTING IN DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND A HIGH RISK OF
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

FORECASTS...LASCODY
RADAR/IMPACT WEATHER...WIMMER







000
FXUS62 KMLB 161908
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
307 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT-TONIGHT...THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY HAS DEVELOPED
THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE CAPE SOUTHWARD THROUGH JUPITER INLET.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED ALONG IT. OTHER
ACTIVITY ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP THUS
FAR DUE TO CLOUD DEBRIS FROM EARLIER ACTIVITY NORTH OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER...WITH DEEP MOISTURE AROUND...CONTINUED HEATING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...VARIOUS BOUNDARIES AROUND AND WEAK IMPULSES ALOFT WE
SHOULD STILL SEE INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH
THIS EVENING. MOVEMENT OF CELLS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AT
AROUND 10 MPH. MAIN THREATS FROM STORMS CONTINUE TO BE FREQUENT CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING IN A FEW CELLS...GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH AND
HEAVY RAINFALL. SOME HEAVIER CELLS MAY CREATE PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS AND NUISANCE URBAN/SMALL STREAM FLOODING FOR A SHORT TIME.

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD INTO
NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA LATE OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE ON THE
DECREASE INTO THE LATE EVENING AS IT PUSHES OFFSHORE. WILL STILL
MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR CONVECTION OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE
PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT AND MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE. MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. LIGHT WEST-SOUTHWEST
WINDS ARE FORECAST TONIGHT.

...PREVIOUS EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION...

WED-THU...A 70-90KT H30-H20 JET STREAK EXTENDING FROM THE OH/TN
RIVER VALLEYS INTO NEW ENGLAND WILL PRODUCE STRONG UPR LVL
DIVERGENCE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. THIS WILL INDUCE A BROAD SFC LOW
ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT THAT WILL SLOWLY CRANK IT THRU CENTRAL FL
ON WED...THEN INTO S FL ON THU. FRONTAL MOTION WILL BE SLOW BUT
STEADY AS THE ATLC RIDGE OVER FL AND THE FL STRAITS IS QUITE WEAK
AND WILL NOT BE ABLE STALL THE ADVANCE.

DEEP MOISTURE POOLING WITHIN THE TROF WITH PWAT VALUES RUNNING BTWN
2.1"-2.2". THIS MOISTURE...COUPLED WITH A RESPECTABLE H85-H50 VORT
BAND IN THE VCNTY OF THE FRONT AND H50-H70 LAPSE RATES BTWN
5.5-6.0C/KM WILL PRODUCE A WET WED WITH POPS ABV 50PCT AREAWIDE.
POPS WILL DROP BACK TO 20-30PCT ON THU AS THE CENTRAL PENINSULA
GAINS THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT AND STEERING WINDS VEER TO THE N/NW
AND PULL DRIER AND MORE STABLE MID LVL AIR ACRS THE CWA WITH PWATS
DROPPING BLO 1.5".

ON WED...MODELS INDICATE A NEARLY SATURATED AIRMASS ABV H50 THAT
SHOULD PRODUCE MID/UPR LVL CLOUD DECKS THAT WILL HINDER SFC HEATING.
HOWEVER...RUC40 REGIONAL ANALYSIS SHOWS H50 TEMPS NEAR THE FRONTAL
TROF RUNNING ARND -8C THAT SHOULD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO
KEEP SCT TSRAS IN THE FCST. OVERALL INSTABILITY LOOKS MODEST AT
BEST...STRONG/SVR TSTM THREAT WILL BE QUITE LOW.

CLOUD COVER AND RAIN COOLED AIR WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS NEAR AVG
(M/U80S) ON WED DESPITE THE USUALLY WARMER WRLY FLOW THAT WILL
PREVAIL. LOW PRECIP/CLOUD COVERAGE ON THU WILL ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO
WARM BACK INTO THE U80S/L90S. MIN TEMPS NEAR AVG (L70S) AS WELL AS
LIGHT NRLY WINDS PUSH SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS INTO CENTRAL FL.

FRI-MON...FRNTL BNDRY WILL REMAIN OVER S FL THRU FRI AS THE POST
FRONTAL HI PRES RIDGE WORKS ITS WAY ACRS THE ERN CONUS AND OFF THE
MID ATLC/NEW ENGLAND COAST. N/NE SFC/STEERING WINDS WILL KEEP THE
RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE MID LVL AIR MASS IN PLACE WITH RELATIVELY
LOWER PRECIP CHANCES THRU THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. THE REMNANTS
OF THE FRONT WILL DRIFT BACK NWD ON SAT AS THE H100-H70 FLOW VEERS
MORE TO THE E/NE...BUT BY THEN IT WILL BE HAVE LITTLE MORE THAN A
MID LVL THETA-E REFLECTION THAN TRUE FRONTAL PROPERTIES. POPS ON SAT
MAY CREEP UP TO THE 50PCT MARK ACRS THE TREASURE COAST...BUT PRECIP
CHANCES WILL REMAIN AOB 40PCT FOR MOST OF THE AREA INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS BROAD HI PRES REESTABLISHES ITS HOLD OVER THE GOMEX/WRN ATLC.

NO SIG COOL AIR ADVECTION AS THE FRONT HAS BEEN MEANDERING OVER THE
DEEP SOUTH FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS. FURTHERMORE...WITH SFC/LOW LVL
WINDS SHIFTING ONSHORE...OCEAN MODIFICATION WILL OCCUR QUICKLY.
MAX/MIN TEMPS NOT EXPECTED TO DEVIATE FROM CLIMO AVGS BY MORE THAN
3F DEG.

&&

.AVIATION...THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE HAS DEVELOPED FROM THE CAPE
SOUTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON. INLAND PUSH WILL BE SLOW DUE TO
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW AT/ABOVE SURFACE. WINDS WILL BACK TO AN EASTERLY
ONSHORE FLOW COMPONENT BEHIND THIS FEATURE. INCREASED CONVECTION
CHANCES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL
SINK INTO NORTH-CENTRAL FL BY SUNRISE WED MORNING. TEMPO IFR/MVFR
CONDS WILL OCCUR WITH ANY SHOWERS/STORMS WITH GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS.
RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE INTO THE EVENING BUT COULD STILL SEE A
FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT DUE TO HIGHER
MOISTURE AND THE SURFACE BOUNDARY`S PRESENCE. LIGHT WEST-SOUTHWEST
WINDS FORECAST TONIGHT. HIGHER RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE INTO WED WITH
FRONT AROUND THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...CURRENT-TONIGHT...WEAK FRONT ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH WILL
SAG INTO NORTH-CENTRAL FL BY DAYBREAK WED MORNING. WINDS HAVE BACKED
TO EASTERLY ALONG THE COAST SOUTH FROM THE CAPE WHERE THE ECSB HAS
FORMED. OFFSHORE FLOW RETURNS AGAIN TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
WATERS. MAIN CONCERN FOR BOATERS REMAINS FOR SCATTERED STORMS
PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AS THEY MOVE OFFSHORE INTO THIS EVENING
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET. WIND SPEEDS MAY APPROACH 15 KTS
AWAY FROM THE COAST OVERNIGHT. CURRENT SEAS AROUND 2 FT WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD TO 3-4 FT OFFSHORE IN INCREASING LONG PERIOD SWELLS
TONIGHT.

...PREVIOUS EXTENDED MARINE DISCUSSION...

WED-WED NIGHT...A WEAK FRONTAL TROF OVER THE DEEP SOUTH PUSH THRU
CENTRAL FL AND SUPPRESS THE ATLC RIDGE AXIS INTO THE FL STRAITS.
INTERACTION BTWN THE TWO SYSTEMS WILL TIGHTEN THE LCL PGRAD
SUFFICIENTLY TO PRODUCE A GENTLE TO MODERATE WRLY BREEZE ACRS THE
LCL ATLC...NO SEABREEZE IS ANTICIPATED. SEAS BUILDING TO 3-4FT
NEARSHORE AND 5-6FT OFFSHORE...LARGELY DUE TO A VERY LONG PD SWELL
(AOA 15SEC) FROM DISTANT HURRICANE EDOUARD. DANGEROUS RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST.

THU-FRI...FRONTAL TROF WILL PUSH INTO S FL ON THU...ALLOWING A LIGHT
TO GENTLE W/NW BREEZE TO VEER TO THE N/NE THRU THE DAY ON THU...THEN
GRADUALLY TO THE E/NE THRU FRI. SWELLS WILL GRADUALLY DAMPEN OUT ON
THU WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2-33FT NEARSHORE AND 3-4FT OFFSHORE BY
SUNSET THU...CONTG THRU FRI.

SAT-SAT NIGHT...THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT OVER THE S HALF OF THE
PENINSULA AS IT DRIFTS BACK TO THE N...LIGHT TO GENTLE E/SE
SFC/BNDRY LYR BREEZE WILL PREVAIL. A NEW SWELL TRAIN WILL WORK ITS
WAY INTO THE LCL ATLC AS A LARGE HIGH PRES RIDGE PUSHES OFF THE MID
ATLC/NEW ENGLAND COAST AND GENERATES A TIGHT PGRAD ALONG THE ERN
SEABOARD. SEAS 2-3FT AREAWIDE AT DAYBREAK...BUILDING TO 3-4FT
NEARSHORE AND 4-5FT OFFSHORE AFT SUNSET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  74  86  73  86 /  60  60  30  20
MCO  74  88  73  90 /  60  60  30  30
MLB  76  86  73  86 /  50  60  40  30
VRB  74  87  72  86 /  50  60  40  40
LEE  74  89  73  90 /  60  50  30  20
SFB  74  89  74  90 /  60  60  30  20
ORL  75  88  74  90 /  60  60  30  20
FPR  73  87  72  86 /  50  60  40  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...SEDLOCK
RADAR/IMPACT WEATHER....KELLY







000
FXUS62 KMLB 161908
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
307 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT-TONIGHT...THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY HAS DEVELOPED
THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE CAPE SOUTHWARD THROUGH JUPITER INLET.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED ALONG IT. OTHER
ACTIVITY ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP THUS
FAR DUE TO CLOUD DEBRIS FROM EARLIER ACTIVITY NORTH OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER...WITH DEEP MOISTURE AROUND...CONTINUED HEATING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...VARIOUS BOUNDARIES AROUND AND WEAK IMPULSES ALOFT WE
SHOULD STILL SEE INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH
THIS EVENING. MOVEMENT OF CELLS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AT
AROUND 10 MPH. MAIN THREATS FROM STORMS CONTINUE TO BE FREQUENT CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING IN A FEW CELLS...GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH AND
HEAVY RAINFALL. SOME HEAVIER CELLS MAY CREATE PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS AND NUISANCE URBAN/SMALL STREAM FLOODING FOR A SHORT TIME.

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD INTO
NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA LATE OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE ON THE
DECREASE INTO THE LATE EVENING AS IT PUSHES OFFSHORE. WILL STILL
MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR CONVECTION OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE
PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT AND MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE. MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. LIGHT WEST-SOUTHWEST
WINDS ARE FORECAST TONIGHT.

...PREVIOUS EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION...

WED-THU...A 70-90KT H30-H20 JET STREAK EXTENDING FROM THE OH/TN
RIVER VALLEYS INTO NEW ENGLAND WILL PRODUCE STRONG UPR LVL
DIVERGENCE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. THIS WILL INDUCE A BROAD SFC LOW
ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT THAT WILL SLOWLY CRANK IT THRU CENTRAL FL
ON WED...THEN INTO S FL ON THU. FRONTAL MOTION WILL BE SLOW BUT
STEADY AS THE ATLC RIDGE OVER FL AND THE FL STRAITS IS QUITE WEAK
AND WILL NOT BE ABLE STALL THE ADVANCE.

DEEP MOISTURE POOLING WITHIN THE TROF WITH PWAT VALUES RUNNING BTWN
2.1"-2.2". THIS MOISTURE...COUPLED WITH A RESPECTABLE H85-H50 VORT
BAND IN THE VCNTY OF THE FRONT AND H50-H70 LAPSE RATES BTWN
5.5-6.0C/KM WILL PRODUCE A WET WED WITH POPS ABV 50PCT AREAWIDE.
POPS WILL DROP BACK TO 20-30PCT ON THU AS THE CENTRAL PENINSULA
GAINS THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT AND STEERING WINDS VEER TO THE N/NW
AND PULL DRIER AND MORE STABLE MID LVL AIR ACRS THE CWA WITH PWATS
DROPPING BLO 1.5".

ON WED...MODELS INDICATE A NEARLY SATURATED AIRMASS ABV H50 THAT
SHOULD PRODUCE MID/UPR LVL CLOUD DECKS THAT WILL HINDER SFC HEATING.
HOWEVER...RUC40 REGIONAL ANALYSIS SHOWS H50 TEMPS NEAR THE FRONTAL
TROF RUNNING ARND -8C THAT SHOULD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO
KEEP SCT TSRAS IN THE FCST. OVERALL INSTABILITY LOOKS MODEST AT
BEST...STRONG/SVR TSTM THREAT WILL BE QUITE LOW.

CLOUD COVER AND RAIN COOLED AIR WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS NEAR AVG
(M/U80S) ON WED DESPITE THE USUALLY WARMER WRLY FLOW THAT WILL
PREVAIL. LOW PRECIP/CLOUD COVERAGE ON THU WILL ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO
WARM BACK INTO THE U80S/L90S. MIN TEMPS NEAR AVG (L70S) AS WELL AS
LIGHT NRLY WINDS PUSH SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS INTO CENTRAL FL.

FRI-MON...FRNTL BNDRY WILL REMAIN OVER S FL THRU FRI AS THE POST
FRONTAL HI PRES RIDGE WORKS ITS WAY ACRS THE ERN CONUS AND OFF THE
MID ATLC/NEW ENGLAND COAST. N/NE SFC/STEERING WINDS WILL KEEP THE
RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE MID LVL AIR MASS IN PLACE WITH RELATIVELY
LOWER PRECIP CHANCES THRU THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. THE REMNANTS
OF THE FRONT WILL DRIFT BACK NWD ON SAT AS THE H100-H70 FLOW VEERS
MORE TO THE E/NE...BUT BY THEN IT WILL BE HAVE LITTLE MORE THAN A
MID LVL THETA-E REFLECTION THAN TRUE FRONTAL PROPERTIES. POPS ON SAT
MAY CREEP UP TO THE 50PCT MARK ACRS THE TREASURE COAST...BUT PRECIP
CHANCES WILL REMAIN AOB 40PCT FOR MOST OF THE AREA INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS BROAD HI PRES REESTABLISHES ITS HOLD OVER THE GOMEX/WRN ATLC.

NO SIG COOL AIR ADVECTION AS THE FRONT HAS BEEN MEANDERING OVER THE
DEEP SOUTH FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS. FURTHERMORE...WITH SFC/LOW LVL
WINDS SHIFTING ONSHORE...OCEAN MODIFICATION WILL OCCUR QUICKLY.
MAX/MIN TEMPS NOT EXPECTED TO DEVIATE FROM CLIMO AVGS BY MORE THAN
3F DEG.

&&

.AVIATION...THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE HAS DEVELOPED FROM THE CAPE
SOUTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON. INLAND PUSH WILL BE SLOW DUE TO
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW AT/ABOVE SURFACE. WINDS WILL BACK TO AN EASTERLY
ONSHORE FLOW COMPONENT BEHIND THIS FEATURE. INCREASED CONVECTION
CHANCES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL
SINK INTO NORTH-CENTRAL FL BY SUNRISE WED MORNING. TEMPO IFR/MVFR
CONDS WILL OCCUR WITH ANY SHOWERS/STORMS WITH GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS.
RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE INTO THE EVENING BUT COULD STILL SEE A
FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT DUE TO HIGHER
MOISTURE AND THE SURFACE BOUNDARY`S PRESENCE. LIGHT WEST-SOUTHWEST
WINDS FORECAST TONIGHT. HIGHER RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE INTO WED WITH
FRONT AROUND THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...CURRENT-TONIGHT...WEAK FRONT ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH WILL
SAG INTO NORTH-CENTRAL FL BY DAYBREAK WED MORNING. WINDS HAVE BACKED
TO EASTERLY ALONG THE COAST SOUTH FROM THE CAPE WHERE THE ECSB HAS
FORMED. OFFSHORE FLOW RETURNS AGAIN TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
WATERS. MAIN CONCERN FOR BOATERS REMAINS FOR SCATTERED STORMS
PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AS THEY MOVE OFFSHORE INTO THIS EVENING
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET. WIND SPEEDS MAY APPROACH 15 KTS
AWAY FROM THE COAST OVERNIGHT. CURRENT SEAS AROUND 2 FT WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD TO 3-4 FT OFFSHORE IN INCREASING LONG PERIOD SWELLS
TONIGHT.

...PREVIOUS EXTENDED MARINE DISCUSSION...

WED-WED NIGHT...A WEAK FRONTAL TROF OVER THE DEEP SOUTH PUSH THRU
CENTRAL FL AND SUPPRESS THE ATLC RIDGE AXIS INTO THE FL STRAITS.
INTERACTION BTWN THE TWO SYSTEMS WILL TIGHTEN THE LCL PGRAD
SUFFICIENTLY TO PRODUCE A GENTLE TO MODERATE WRLY BREEZE ACRS THE
LCL ATLC...NO SEABREEZE IS ANTICIPATED. SEAS BUILDING TO 3-4FT
NEARSHORE AND 5-6FT OFFSHORE...LARGELY DUE TO A VERY LONG PD SWELL
(AOA 15SEC) FROM DISTANT HURRICANE EDOUARD. DANGEROUS RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST.

THU-FRI...FRONTAL TROF WILL PUSH INTO S FL ON THU...ALLOWING A LIGHT
TO GENTLE W/NW BREEZE TO VEER TO THE N/NE THRU THE DAY ON THU...THEN
GRADUALLY TO THE E/NE THRU FRI. SWELLS WILL GRADUALLY DAMPEN OUT ON
THU WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2-33FT NEARSHORE AND 3-4FT OFFSHORE BY
SUNSET THU...CONTG THRU FRI.

SAT-SAT NIGHT...THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT OVER THE S HALF OF THE
PENINSULA AS IT DRIFTS BACK TO THE N...LIGHT TO GENTLE E/SE
SFC/BNDRY LYR BREEZE WILL PREVAIL. A NEW SWELL TRAIN WILL WORK ITS
WAY INTO THE LCL ATLC AS A LARGE HIGH PRES RIDGE PUSHES OFF THE MID
ATLC/NEW ENGLAND COAST AND GENERATES A TIGHT PGRAD ALONG THE ERN
SEABOARD. SEAS 2-3FT AREAWIDE AT DAYBREAK...BUILDING TO 3-4FT
NEARSHORE AND 4-5FT OFFSHORE AFT SUNSET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  74  86  73  86 /  60  60  30  20
MCO  74  88  73  90 /  60  60  30  30
MLB  76  86  73  86 /  50  60  40  30
VRB  74  87  72  86 /  50  60  40  40
LEE  74  89  73  90 /  60  50  30  20
SFB  74  89  74  90 /  60  60  30  20
ORL  75  88  74  90 /  60  60  30  20
FPR  73  87  72  86 /  50  60  40  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...SEDLOCK
RADAR/IMPACT WEATHER....KELLY






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