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000
FXUS62 KMLB 301337
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
937 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY...(LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)
AFTER A CHILLY START...TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND BACK CLOSE TO SEASONAL
NORMS IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S THIS AFTERNOON WITH A LIGHT WIND FLOW.
A FEW 80 DEGREE READINGS WILL OCCUR OVER THE INTERIOR. HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE AXIS WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PENINSULA WHICH WILL
PROMOTE LIGHT WINDS AND ALLOW THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE TO PUSH INLAND
FROM CANAVERAL SOUTHWARD...BUT LIGHT WESTERLY GRADIENT FLOW WILL KEEP
THE BOUNDARY PINNED CLOSE TO THE VOLUSIA COAST.  SOME STRATOCU WILL AFFECT
SOUTH PORTIONS WHERE A WEAK ONSHORE GRADIENT FLOW PUSHES MOISTURE INLAND.

TONIGHT...SEASONABLY COOL WITH LOWS TUE MORNING IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME MOISTURE MOVING INTO NORTHERN
SECTIONS FROM THE NW THIS EVENING...PROBABLY IN THE FORM OF SOME
SCATTERED CLOUDINESS...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. NO PRECIP IS GENERATED BY THE GFS SO IT WILL CONTINUE DRY.
THE COOLEST TEMPS...POSSIBLY SOME LOWER 50S...WILL BE FOUND ACROSS
THE SOUTH UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR. LOCAL GROUND FOG TOWARDS 12Z TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...(LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)
A WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL SETTLE ACROSS CENTRAL FL
AND THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS. WINDS AND WIND WAVES ALREADY WERE
DIMINISHING AND PRODUCING IMPROVED BOATING CONDITIONS. AN EAST TO
SOUTHEAST SEA BREEZE AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST
THIS AFTERNOON...EXCEPT AN OFFSHORE (WEST/SOUTHWEST) GRADIENT FLOW
IN THE NORTH WILL PIN THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY RIGHT AT THE COAST.
THE PRIMARY CONTRIBUTION TO WAVE HEIGHT WILL BE A COUPLE OF SWELL
COMPONENTS...ONE FROM THE NORTHEAST AND ANOTHER FROM THE EAST...
PRODUCING SEAS OF 3-4 FT.

TONIGHT...THE RIDGE AXIS WILL PRESS SOUTH OF THE WATERS AND A
SLIGHTLY STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW 10-15 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP OVER NORTH
AND CENTRAL WATERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...(LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)
LONG DURATION OF RH BELOW 35 PERCENT EXPECTED OVER THE INTERIOR THIS
AFTERNOON. MIN RH VALUES WILL REACH 25-30 PERCENT FROM AROUND METRO
ORLANDO TO SOUTH LAKE COUNTY...BUT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LASCODY
LONG TERM....VOLKMER




000
FXUS62 KMLB 301337
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
937 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY...(LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)
AFTER A CHILLY START...TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND BACK CLOSE TO SEASONAL
NORMS IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S THIS AFTERNOON WITH A LIGHT WIND FLOW.
A FEW 80 DEGREE READINGS WILL OCCUR OVER THE INTERIOR. HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE AXIS WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PENINSULA WHICH WILL
PROMOTE LIGHT WINDS AND ALLOW THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE TO PUSH INLAND
FROM CANAVERAL SOUTHWARD...BUT LIGHT WESTERLY GRADIENT FLOW WILL KEEP
THE BOUNDARY PINNED CLOSE TO THE VOLUSIA COAST.  SOME STRATOCU WILL AFFECT
SOUTH PORTIONS WHERE A WEAK ONSHORE GRADIENT FLOW PUSHES MOISTURE INLAND.

TONIGHT...SEASONABLY COOL WITH LOWS TUE MORNING IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME MOISTURE MOVING INTO NORTHERN
SECTIONS FROM THE NW THIS EVENING...PROBABLY IN THE FORM OF SOME
SCATTERED CLOUDINESS...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. NO PRECIP IS GENERATED BY THE GFS SO IT WILL CONTINUE DRY.
THE COOLEST TEMPS...POSSIBLY SOME LOWER 50S...WILL BE FOUND ACROSS
THE SOUTH UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR. LOCAL GROUND FOG TOWARDS 12Z TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...(LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)
A WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL SETTLE ACROSS CENTRAL FL
AND THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS. WINDS AND WIND WAVES ALREADY WERE
DIMINISHING AND PRODUCING IMPROVED BOATING CONDITIONS. AN EAST TO
SOUTHEAST SEA BREEZE AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST
THIS AFTERNOON...EXCEPT AN OFFSHORE (WEST/SOUTHWEST) GRADIENT FLOW
IN THE NORTH WILL PIN THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY RIGHT AT THE COAST.
THE PRIMARY CONTRIBUTION TO WAVE HEIGHT WILL BE A COUPLE OF SWELL
COMPONENTS...ONE FROM THE NORTHEAST AND ANOTHER FROM THE EAST...
PRODUCING SEAS OF 3-4 FT.

TONIGHT...THE RIDGE AXIS WILL PRESS SOUTH OF THE WATERS AND A
SLIGHTLY STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW 10-15 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP OVER NORTH
AND CENTRAL WATERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...(LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)
LONG DURATION OF RH BELOW 35 PERCENT EXPECTED OVER THE INTERIOR THIS
AFTERNOON. MIN RH VALUES WILL REACH 25-30 PERCENT FROM AROUND METRO
ORLANDO TO SOUTH LAKE COUNTY...BUT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LASCODY
LONG TERM....VOLKMER





000
FXUS62 KMLB 301337
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
937 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY...(LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)
AFTER A CHILLY START...TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND BACK CLOSE TO SEASONAL
NORMS IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S THIS AFTERNOON WITH A LIGHT WIND FLOW.
A FEW 80 DEGREE READINGS WILL OCCUR OVER THE INTERIOR. HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE AXIS WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PENINSULA WHICH WILL
PROMOTE LIGHT WINDS AND ALLOW THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE TO PUSH INLAND
FROM CANAVERAL SOUTHWARD...BUT LIGHT WESTERLY GRADIENT FLOW WILL KEEP
THE BOUNDARY PINNED CLOSE TO THE VOLUSIA COAST.  SOME STRATOCU WILL AFFECT
SOUTH PORTIONS WHERE A WEAK ONSHORE GRADIENT FLOW PUSHES MOISTURE INLAND.

TONIGHT...SEASONABLY COOL WITH LOWS TUE MORNING IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME MOISTURE MOVING INTO NORTHERN
SECTIONS FROM THE NW THIS EVENING...PROBABLY IN THE FORM OF SOME
SCATTERED CLOUDINESS...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. NO PRECIP IS GENERATED BY THE GFS SO IT WILL CONTINUE DRY.
THE COOLEST TEMPS...POSSIBLY SOME LOWER 50S...WILL BE FOUND ACROSS
THE SOUTH UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR. LOCAL GROUND FOG TOWARDS 12Z TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...(LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)
A WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL SETTLE ACROSS CENTRAL FL
AND THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS. WINDS AND WIND WAVES ALREADY WERE
DIMINISHING AND PRODUCING IMPROVED BOATING CONDITIONS. AN EAST TO
SOUTHEAST SEA BREEZE AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST
THIS AFTERNOON...EXCEPT AN OFFSHORE (WEST/SOUTHWEST) GRADIENT FLOW
IN THE NORTH WILL PIN THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY RIGHT AT THE COAST.
THE PRIMARY CONTRIBUTION TO WAVE HEIGHT WILL BE A COUPLE OF SWELL
COMPONENTS...ONE FROM THE NORTHEAST AND ANOTHER FROM THE EAST...
PRODUCING SEAS OF 3-4 FT.

TONIGHT...THE RIDGE AXIS WILL PRESS SOUTH OF THE WATERS AND A
SLIGHTLY STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW 10-15 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP OVER NORTH
AND CENTRAL WATERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...(LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)
LONG DURATION OF RH BELOW 35 PERCENT EXPECTED OVER THE INTERIOR THIS
AFTERNOON. MIN RH VALUES WILL REACH 25-30 PERCENT FROM AROUND METRO
ORLANDO TO SOUTH LAKE COUNTY...BUT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LASCODY
LONG TERM....VOLKMER





000
FXUS62 KMLB 301337
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
937 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY...(LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)
AFTER A CHILLY START...TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND BACK CLOSE TO SEASONAL
NORMS IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S THIS AFTERNOON WITH A LIGHT WIND FLOW.
A FEW 80 DEGREE READINGS WILL OCCUR OVER THE INTERIOR. HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE AXIS WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PENINSULA WHICH WILL
PROMOTE LIGHT WINDS AND ALLOW THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE TO PUSH INLAND
FROM CANAVERAL SOUTHWARD...BUT LIGHT WESTERLY GRADIENT FLOW WILL KEEP
THE BOUNDARY PINNED CLOSE TO THE VOLUSIA COAST.  SOME STRATOCU WILL AFFECT
SOUTH PORTIONS WHERE A WEAK ONSHORE GRADIENT FLOW PUSHES MOISTURE INLAND.

TONIGHT...SEASONABLY COOL WITH LOWS TUE MORNING IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME MOISTURE MOVING INTO NORTHERN
SECTIONS FROM THE NW THIS EVENING...PROBABLY IN THE FORM OF SOME
SCATTERED CLOUDINESS...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. NO PRECIP IS GENERATED BY THE GFS SO IT WILL CONTINUE DRY.
THE COOLEST TEMPS...POSSIBLY SOME LOWER 50S...WILL BE FOUND ACROSS
THE SOUTH UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR. LOCAL GROUND FOG TOWARDS 12Z TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...(LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)
A WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL SETTLE ACROSS CENTRAL FL
AND THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS. WINDS AND WIND WAVES ALREADY WERE
DIMINISHING AND PRODUCING IMPROVED BOATING CONDITIONS. AN EAST TO
SOUTHEAST SEA BREEZE AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST
THIS AFTERNOON...EXCEPT AN OFFSHORE (WEST/SOUTHWEST) GRADIENT FLOW
IN THE NORTH WILL PIN THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY RIGHT AT THE COAST.
THE PRIMARY CONTRIBUTION TO WAVE HEIGHT WILL BE A COUPLE OF SWELL
COMPONENTS...ONE FROM THE NORTHEAST AND ANOTHER FROM THE EAST...
PRODUCING SEAS OF 3-4 FT.

TONIGHT...THE RIDGE AXIS WILL PRESS SOUTH OF THE WATERS AND A
SLIGHTLY STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW 10-15 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP OVER NORTH
AND CENTRAL WATERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...(LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)
LONG DURATION OF RH BELOW 35 PERCENT EXPECTED OVER THE INTERIOR THIS
AFTERNOON. MIN RH VALUES WILL REACH 25-30 PERCENT FROM AROUND METRO
ORLANDO TO SOUTH LAKE COUNTY...BUT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LASCODY
LONG TERM....VOLKMER




000
FXUS62 KMLB 300825
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
425 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY...AFTER A CHILLY START...TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND BACK TO
SEASONAL NORMS IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
LIGHT WIND FLOW. A FEW 80 DEGREE READINGS WILL OCCUR OVER THE INTERIOR.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA WHICH WILL
PROMOTE LIGHT WINDS AND ALLOW THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP.
SOME MARINE STRATOCU IS IMPACTING PORTIONS OF THE TREASURE COAST WHERE
ONSHORE FLOW IS A BIT STRONGER. BUT THESE CLOUDS SHOULD DECREASE ONCE
THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION DEVELOPS LATE THIS MORNING.

TONIGHT...SEASONABLY COOL WITH LOWS TUE MORNING IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME MOISTURE MOVING INTO NORTHERN
SECTIONS FROM THE NW OVERNIGHT...PROBABLY IN THE FORM OF SOME SCATTERED
CLOUDINESS...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY...BUT RAIN
CHANCES LOOK TOO LOW TO MENTION. THE COOLEST TEMPS...POSSIBLY SOME LOWER
50S...WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE SOUTH UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND CALM
WINDS.

TUE-WED...
LOW AMP POSITIVELY TILTED FRONTAL TROF EXTENDING FROM THE ARKLATEX
TO THE GREAT LAKES WILL BE DRIVEN E/SE BY A MODERATELY STRONG
H30-H20 JET PATTERN OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. AN H100-H70 RIDGE AXIS
CENTERED OVER THE GOMEX INITIALLY WILL BLOCK THE TROF TO THE E...BUT
WILL HAVE ITS ERN FLANK ERODED IN THE PROCESS. WHILE THIS WILL ALLOW
THE FRONTAL BNDRY TO OOZE ITS WAY INTO CENTRAL FL BY MIDWEEK...THE
MID/UPR LVL FLOW PATTERN OVER THE CENTRAL/ERN CONUS DOES NOT HAVE
SUFFICIENT AMPLITUDE NOR STRENGTH TO COMPLETELY UPROOT THE GOMEX
RIDGE. AS A RESULT...FRONT WILL WASH OUT OVER CENTRAL FL AS ITS POST
FRONTAL RIDGE AXIS BUILDS OFF THE MID ATLC COAST.

POSITION OF THE GOMEX RIDGE WILL BLOCK OUT THE MAJORITY OF ANY MID
LVL VORTICITY WHILE SIMULTANEOUSLY MAINTAINING A STEADY NW FLOW THRU
THE H100-H50 LYR. AN 80-90KT JET STREAK WILL PUSH INTO A POSITION BY
WED TO PLACE CENTRAL FL UNDER ITS ASCENDING LEFT FRONT QUAD. MID LVL
TEMPS WILL BE QUITE COOL AS WELL AS UPSTREAM H50 TEMPS ARE RUNNING
AOB -14C...YIELDING H70-H50 LAPSE RATES BTWN 7.0-7.5C/KM.

LOW LVL MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR WITH THIS
SYSTEM AS THE DEEP LYR NW FLOW PREVENTS ANY WARM/MOIST AIR ADVECTION
PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT. THE SYSTEM WILL HAVE TO RELY ON
MOISTURE POOLING WITHIN ITS OWN TROF...AND LATEST RAP40 ANALYSIS
SHOWS THE BULK OF DEEP MOISTURE THRU BOTH THE H100-H70 AND H85-H50
LYR IS EMBEDDED WITHIN DEEP WRLY FLOW THAT WILL CARRY IT OFF THE
ATLC COAST BEFORE IT CAN ADVECT INTO CENTRAL FL.

DIFFICULT TO STARE AT -14C MID LVL TEMPS WITHOUT FCSTG TSRAS...BUT
GIVEN THE LACK OF MOISTURE AND MID LVL SUPPORT...DEEP CONVECTION
THRU MIDWEEK DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY ATTM. WILL KEEP THE FCST DRY
THRU TUE...AND LIMIT POPS TO 20/30PCT ON WED FOR THE CENTRAL/NRN
CWA...HIGHER TO THE N TO ACCOUNT FOR BETTER UPR JET DYNAMICS AND
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO DEEPER MOISTURE. SILENT 10 POPS ARND LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. TEMP FCST NEAR AVG FOR MID SPRING...AFTN MAXES L/M80S
INTERIOR...U70S/L80S ALONG THE COAST. MIN TEMPS U50S/M60S.

THU-SUN...
POST FRONTAL RIDGE WILL PUSH OFF THE MID ATLC COAST AND BRIDGE THE
FRONTAL TROF EAST OF THE BAHAMA BANK THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK. THERE IT WILL MERGE WITH THE ATLC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WITH ITS
TRAILING AXIS EXTENDING BACK ACRS THE FL PANHANDLE INTO THE WEEKEND.
DRY/STABLE AIRMASS ASSOCD WITH THE RIDGE MERGER WILL REQUIRE SIG
MODIFICATION BEFORE ANYTHING HIGHER THAN 20POPS CAN BE INTRODUCED
TO THE FCST...UNLIKELY BEFORE THE NEXT FROPA WHICH MID RANGE MODELS
ARE NOT INDICATING UNTIL SUN AT EARLIEST.

INCREASING SRLY COMPONENT INTO THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF THE NEXT FROPA
WILL KEEP TEMPS 5-10F ABV ABV AVG. MAX TEMPS L/M80S ALONG THE COAST
AND M/U80S INTERIOR...MIN TEMPS M/U60S.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR THROUGH 12Z TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...A WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL SETTLE ACROSS
CENT FL AND THE ADJACENT ALTC WATERS. IT IS ALREADY DIMINISHING
WINDS AND WIND WAVES AND WILL RESULT IN IMPROVED BOATING
CONDITIONS. A LIGHT OFFSHORE (W/SW) FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
NORTHERN (VOLUSIA) WATERS THIS MORNING. AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST SEA
BREEZE AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON.
THE PRIMARY CONTRIBUTION TO WAVE HEIGHT WILL BE A COUPLE OF SWELL
COMPONENTS...ONE FROM THE NORTHEAST AND ANOTHER FROM THE EAST...
PRODUCING SEAS OF 3-4 FT. BUT WITH PERIODS AROUND 8 SECONDS...IT
WILL NOT BE AS CHOPPY AS PREVIOUS DAYS.

TONIGHT...THE RIDGE AXIS WILL PRESS SOUTH OF THE WATERS AND A
SLIGHTLY STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW 10-15 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP OVER NORTH
AND CENTRAL WATERS.

TUE...BROAD HI PRES RIDGE DRAPED OVER CENTRAL/SOUTH FL WILL GENERATE
A LIGHT TO GENTLE W/NW BREEZE THRU MIDDAY. WEAK PGRAD WILL ALLOW THE
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE TO FORM BY EARLY AFTN WITH SFC WINDS BCMG A
LIGHT TO GENTLE SERLY BREEZE THRU SUNSET. SEAS 2-3FT WITH DOMINANT
PDS 7-8SEC.

TUE NIGHT... A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO N FL OVERNIGHT...
FORCING WINDS TO VEER TO THE S/SW THRU MIDNIGHT THEN TO THE W THRU
SUNRISE...GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZE N OF SEBASTIAN INLET AND LIGHT
TO GENTLE TO THE S. SEAS 2-3FT OVER MOST OF THE AREA...UP TO 4FT IN
THE GULF STREAM. DVLPG OFFSHORE COMPONENT WILL GENERATE CHOPPY SHORT
PD WIND WAVES.

WED-WED NIGHT...FRONTAL BNDRY WILL BREAK UP OVER THE FL PENINSULA AS
THE POST FRONTAL RIDGE BUILDS OFF THE MID ATLC COAST. GENTLE TO
MODERATE W/NW BREEZE BCMG A LIGHT TO GENTLE NE BREEZE THRU THE
DAYLIGHT HRS... BCMG LIGHT TO GENTLE E/NE OVERNIGHT. SEAS 2-3FT
NEARSHORE AND 3-4FT OFFSHORE THRU THE DAY...SUBSIDING TO 2FT
OVERNIGHT.

THU-FRI...POST FRONTAL RIDGE WILL BRIDGE THE FRONTAL TROF AND MERGE
WITH THE ATLC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EAST OF THE BAHAMA BANK THROUGH THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. POSITION OF THE RIDGE AXIS OVER N FL WILL
GENERATE A GENTLE TO MODERATE SERLY BREEZE THRU SUNSET FRI. WINDS
VEERING TO S/SW FRI NIGHT AS A NEW COLD FRONT PRESSES INTO THE DEEP
SOUTH. SEAS 2-3FT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LONG DURATION OF CRITICAL RH (BELOW 35 PERCENT) ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON. MIN RH VALUES WILL REACH 25-30 PERCENT BUT
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  76  58  78  62 /   0  10  10  10
MCO  80  58  83  63 /   0  10  10  10
MLB  76  55  78  61 /   0  10   0  10
VRB  77  54  77  60 /   0  10   0  10
LEE  79  59  83  63 /   0  10  10  10
SFB  78  58  83  63 /   0  10  10  10
ORL  79  59  83  63 /   0  10  10  10
FPR  76  54  78  60 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KELLY
LONG TERM....BRAGAW





000
FXUS62 KMLB 300825
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
425 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY...AFTER A CHILLY START...TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND BACK TO
SEASONAL NORMS IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
LIGHT WIND FLOW. A FEW 80 DEGREE READINGS WILL OCCUR OVER THE INTERIOR.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA WHICH WILL
PROMOTE LIGHT WINDS AND ALLOW THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP.
SOME MARINE STRATOCU IS IMPACTING PORTIONS OF THE TREASURE COAST WHERE
ONSHORE FLOW IS A BIT STRONGER. BUT THESE CLOUDS SHOULD DECREASE ONCE
THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION DEVELOPS LATE THIS MORNING.

TONIGHT...SEASONABLY COOL WITH LOWS TUE MORNING IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME MOISTURE MOVING INTO NORTHERN
SECTIONS FROM THE NW OVERNIGHT...PROBABLY IN THE FORM OF SOME SCATTERED
CLOUDINESS...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY...BUT RAIN
CHANCES LOOK TOO LOW TO MENTION. THE COOLEST TEMPS...POSSIBLY SOME LOWER
50S...WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE SOUTH UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND CALM
WINDS.

TUE-WED...
LOW AMP POSITIVELY TILTED FRONTAL TROF EXTENDING FROM THE ARKLATEX
TO THE GREAT LAKES WILL BE DRIVEN E/SE BY A MODERATELY STRONG
H30-H20 JET PATTERN OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. AN H100-H70 RIDGE AXIS
CENTERED OVER THE GOMEX INITIALLY WILL BLOCK THE TROF TO THE E...BUT
WILL HAVE ITS ERN FLANK ERODED IN THE PROCESS. WHILE THIS WILL ALLOW
THE FRONTAL BNDRY TO OOZE ITS WAY INTO CENTRAL FL BY MIDWEEK...THE
MID/UPR LVL FLOW PATTERN OVER THE CENTRAL/ERN CONUS DOES NOT HAVE
SUFFICIENT AMPLITUDE NOR STRENGTH TO COMPLETELY UPROOT THE GOMEX
RIDGE. AS A RESULT...FRONT WILL WASH OUT OVER CENTRAL FL AS ITS POST
FRONTAL RIDGE AXIS BUILDS OFF THE MID ATLC COAST.

POSITION OF THE GOMEX RIDGE WILL BLOCK OUT THE MAJORITY OF ANY MID
LVL VORTICITY WHILE SIMULTANEOUSLY MAINTAINING A STEADY NW FLOW THRU
THE H100-H50 LYR. AN 80-90KT JET STREAK WILL PUSH INTO A POSITION BY
WED TO PLACE CENTRAL FL UNDER ITS ASCENDING LEFT FRONT QUAD. MID LVL
TEMPS WILL BE QUITE COOL AS WELL AS UPSTREAM H50 TEMPS ARE RUNNING
AOB -14C...YIELDING H70-H50 LAPSE RATES BTWN 7.0-7.5C/KM.

LOW LVL MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR WITH THIS
SYSTEM AS THE DEEP LYR NW FLOW PREVENTS ANY WARM/MOIST AIR ADVECTION
PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT. THE SYSTEM WILL HAVE TO RELY ON
MOISTURE POOLING WITHIN ITS OWN TROF...AND LATEST RAP40 ANALYSIS
SHOWS THE BULK OF DEEP MOISTURE THRU BOTH THE H100-H70 AND H85-H50
LYR IS EMBEDDED WITHIN DEEP WRLY FLOW THAT WILL CARRY IT OFF THE
ATLC COAST BEFORE IT CAN ADVECT INTO CENTRAL FL.

DIFFICULT TO STARE AT -14C MID LVL TEMPS WITHOUT FCSTG TSRAS...BUT
GIVEN THE LACK OF MOISTURE AND MID LVL SUPPORT...DEEP CONVECTION
THRU MIDWEEK DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY ATTM. WILL KEEP THE FCST DRY
THRU TUE...AND LIMIT POPS TO 20/30PCT ON WED FOR THE CENTRAL/NRN
CWA...HIGHER TO THE N TO ACCOUNT FOR BETTER UPR JET DYNAMICS AND
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO DEEPER MOISTURE. SILENT 10 POPS ARND LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. TEMP FCST NEAR AVG FOR MID SPRING...AFTN MAXES L/M80S
INTERIOR...U70S/L80S ALONG THE COAST. MIN TEMPS U50S/M60S.

THU-SUN...
POST FRONTAL RIDGE WILL PUSH OFF THE MID ATLC COAST AND BRIDGE THE
FRONTAL TROF EAST OF THE BAHAMA BANK THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK. THERE IT WILL MERGE WITH THE ATLC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WITH ITS
TRAILING AXIS EXTENDING BACK ACRS THE FL PANHANDLE INTO THE WEEKEND.
DRY/STABLE AIRMASS ASSOCD WITH THE RIDGE MERGER WILL REQUIRE SIG
MODIFICATION BEFORE ANYTHING HIGHER THAN 20POPS CAN BE INTRODUCED
TO THE FCST...UNLIKELY BEFORE THE NEXT FROPA WHICH MID RANGE MODELS
ARE NOT INDICATING UNTIL SUN AT EARLIEST.

INCREASING SRLY COMPONENT INTO THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF THE NEXT FROPA
WILL KEEP TEMPS 5-10F ABV ABV AVG. MAX TEMPS L/M80S ALONG THE COAST
AND M/U80S INTERIOR...MIN TEMPS M/U60S.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR THROUGH 12Z TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...A WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL SETTLE ACROSS
CENT FL AND THE ADJACENT ALTC WATERS. IT IS ALREADY DIMINISHING
WINDS AND WIND WAVES AND WILL RESULT IN IMPROVED BOATING
CONDITIONS. A LIGHT OFFSHORE (W/SW) FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
NORTHERN (VOLUSIA) WATERS THIS MORNING. AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST SEA
BREEZE AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON.
THE PRIMARY CONTRIBUTION TO WAVE HEIGHT WILL BE A COUPLE OF SWELL
COMPONENTS...ONE FROM THE NORTHEAST AND ANOTHER FROM THE EAST...
PRODUCING SEAS OF 3-4 FT. BUT WITH PERIODS AROUND 8 SECONDS...IT
WILL NOT BE AS CHOPPY AS PREVIOUS DAYS.

TONIGHT...THE RIDGE AXIS WILL PRESS SOUTH OF THE WATERS AND A
SLIGHTLY STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW 10-15 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP OVER NORTH
AND CENTRAL WATERS.

TUE...BROAD HI PRES RIDGE DRAPED OVER CENTRAL/SOUTH FL WILL GENERATE
A LIGHT TO GENTLE W/NW BREEZE THRU MIDDAY. WEAK PGRAD WILL ALLOW THE
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE TO FORM BY EARLY AFTN WITH SFC WINDS BCMG A
LIGHT TO GENTLE SERLY BREEZE THRU SUNSET. SEAS 2-3FT WITH DOMINANT
PDS 7-8SEC.

TUE NIGHT... A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO N FL OVERNIGHT...
FORCING WINDS TO VEER TO THE S/SW THRU MIDNIGHT THEN TO THE W THRU
SUNRISE...GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZE N OF SEBASTIAN INLET AND LIGHT
TO GENTLE TO THE S. SEAS 2-3FT OVER MOST OF THE AREA...UP TO 4FT IN
THE GULF STREAM. DVLPG OFFSHORE COMPONENT WILL GENERATE CHOPPY SHORT
PD WIND WAVES.

WED-WED NIGHT...FRONTAL BNDRY WILL BREAK UP OVER THE FL PENINSULA AS
THE POST FRONTAL RIDGE BUILDS OFF THE MID ATLC COAST. GENTLE TO
MODERATE W/NW BREEZE BCMG A LIGHT TO GENTLE NE BREEZE THRU THE
DAYLIGHT HRS... BCMG LIGHT TO GENTLE E/NE OVERNIGHT. SEAS 2-3FT
NEARSHORE AND 3-4FT OFFSHORE THRU THE DAY...SUBSIDING TO 2FT
OVERNIGHT.

THU-FRI...POST FRONTAL RIDGE WILL BRIDGE THE FRONTAL TROF AND MERGE
WITH THE ATLC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EAST OF THE BAHAMA BANK THROUGH THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. POSITION OF THE RIDGE AXIS OVER N FL WILL
GENERATE A GENTLE TO MODERATE SERLY BREEZE THRU SUNSET FRI. WINDS
VEERING TO S/SW FRI NIGHT AS A NEW COLD FRONT PRESSES INTO THE DEEP
SOUTH. SEAS 2-3FT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LONG DURATION OF CRITICAL RH (BELOW 35 PERCENT) ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON. MIN RH VALUES WILL REACH 25-30 PERCENT BUT
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  76  58  78  62 /   0  10  10  10
MCO  80  58  83  63 /   0  10  10  10
MLB  76  55  78  61 /   0  10   0  10
VRB  77  54  77  60 /   0  10   0  10
LEE  79  59  83  63 /   0  10  10  10
SFB  78  58  83  63 /   0  10  10  10
ORL  79  59  83  63 /   0  10  10  10
FPR  76  54  78  60 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KELLY
LONG TERM....BRAGAW




000
FXUS62 KMLB 300825
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
425 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY...AFTER A CHILLY START...TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND BACK TO
SEASONAL NORMS IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
LIGHT WIND FLOW. A FEW 80 DEGREE READINGS WILL OCCUR OVER THE INTERIOR.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA WHICH WILL
PROMOTE LIGHT WINDS AND ALLOW THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP.
SOME MARINE STRATOCU IS IMPACTING PORTIONS OF THE TREASURE COAST WHERE
ONSHORE FLOW IS A BIT STRONGER. BUT THESE CLOUDS SHOULD DECREASE ONCE
THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION DEVELOPS LATE THIS MORNING.

TONIGHT...SEASONABLY COOL WITH LOWS TUE MORNING IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME MOISTURE MOVING INTO NORTHERN
SECTIONS FROM THE NW OVERNIGHT...PROBABLY IN THE FORM OF SOME SCATTERED
CLOUDINESS...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY...BUT RAIN
CHANCES LOOK TOO LOW TO MENTION. THE COOLEST TEMPS...POSSIBLY SOME LOWER
50S...WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE SOUTH UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND CALM
WINDS.

TUE-WED...
LOW AMP POSITIVELY TILTED FRONTAL TROF EXTENDING FROM THE ARKLATEX
TO THE GREAT LAKES WILL BE DRIVEN E/SE BY A MODERATELY STRONG
H30-H20 JET PATTERN OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. AN H100-H70 RIDGE AXIS
CENTERED OVER THE GOMEX INITIALLY WILL BLOCK THE TROF TO THE E...BUT
WILL HAVE ITS ERN FLANK ERODED IN THE PROCESS. WHILE THIS WILL ALLOW
THE FRONTAL BNDRY TO OOZE ITS WAY INTO CENTRAL FL BY MIDWEEK...THE
MID/UPR LVL FLOW PATTERN OVER THE CENTRAL/ERN CONUS DOES NOT HAVE
SUFFICIENT AMPLITUDE NOR STRENGTH TO COMPLETELY UPROOT THE GOMEX
RIDGE. AS A RESULT...FRONT WILL WASH OUT OVER CENTRAL FL AS ITS POST
FRONTAL RIDGE AXIS BUILDS OFF THE MID ATLC COAST.

POSITION OF THE GOMEX RIDGE WILL BLOCK OUT THE MAJORITY OF ANY MID
LVL VORTICITY WHILE SIMULTANEOUSLY MAINTAINING A STEADY NW FLOW THRU
THE H100-H50 LYR. AN 80-90KT JET STREAK WILL PUSH INTO A POSITION BY
WED TO PLACE CENTRAL FL UNDER ITS ASCENDING LEFT FRONT QUAD. MID LVL
TEMPS WILL BE QUITE COOL AS WELL AS UPSTREAM H50 TEMPS ARE RUNNING
AOB -14C...YIELDING H70-H50 LAPSE RATES BTWN 7.0-7.5C/KM.

LOW LVL MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR WITH THIS
SYSTEM AS THE DEEP LYR NW FLOW PREVENTS ANY WARM/MOIST AIR ADVECTION
PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT. THE SYSTEM WILL HAVE TO RELY ON
MOISTURE POOLING WITHIN ITS OWN TROF...AND LATEST RAP40 ANALYSIS
SHOWS THE BULK OF DEEP MOISTURE THRU BOTH THE H100-H70 AND H85-H50
LYR IS EMBEDDED WITHIN DEEP WRLY FLOW THAT WILL CARRY IT OFF THE
ATLC COAST BEFORE IT CAN ADVECT INTO CENTRAL FL.

DIFFICULT TO STARE AT -14C MID LVL TEMPS WITHOUT FCSTG TSRAS...BUT
GIVEN THE LACK OF MOISTURE AND MID LVL SUPPORT...DEEP CONVECTION
THRU MIDWEEK DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY ATTM. WILL KEEP THE FCST DRY
THRU TUE...AND LIMIT POPS TO 20/30PCT ON WED FOR THE CENTRAL/NRN
CWA...HIGHER TO THE N TO ACCOUNT FOR BETTER UPR JET DYNAMICS AND
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO DEEPER MOISTURE. SILENT 10 POPS ARND LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. TEMP FCST NEAR AVG FOR MID SPRING...AFTN MAXES L/M80S
INTERIOR...U70S/L80S ALONG THE COAST. MIN TEMPS U50S/M60S.

THU-SUN...
POST FRONTAL RIDGE WILL PUSH OFF THE MID ATLC COAST AND BRIDGE THE
FRONTAL TROF EAST OF THE BAHAMA BANK THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK. THERE IT WILL MERGE WITH THE ATLC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WITH ITS
TRAILING AXIS EXTENDING BACK ACRS THE FL PANHANDLE INTO THE WEEKEND.
DRY/STABLE AIRMASS ASSOCD WITH THE RIDGE MERGER WILL REQUIRE SIG
MODIFICATION BEFORE ANYTHING HIGHER THAN 20POPS CAN BE INTRODUCED
TO THE FCST...UNLIKELY BEFORE THE NEXT FROPA WHICH MID RANGE MODELS
ARE NOT INDICATING UNTIL SUN AT EARLIEST.

INCREASING SRLY COMPONENT INTO THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF THE NEXT FROPA
WILL KEEP TEMPS 5-10F ABV ABV AVG. MAX TEMPS L/M80S ALONG THE COAST
AND M/U80S INTERIOR...MIN TEMPS M/U60S.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR THROUGH 12Z TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...A WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL SETTLE ACROSS
CENT FL AND THE ADJACENT ALTC WATERS. IT IS ALREADY DIMINISHING
WINDS AND WIND WAVES AND WILL RESULT IN IMPROVED BOATING
CONDITIONS. A LIGHT OFFSHORE (W/SW) FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
NORTHERN (VOLUSIA) WATERS THIS MORNING. AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST SEA
BREEZE AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON.
THE PRIMARY CONTRIBUTION TO WAVE HEIGHT WILL BE A COUPLE OF SWELL
COMPONENTS...ONE FROM THE NORTHEAST AND ANOTHER FROM THE EAST...
PRODUCING SEAS OF 3-4 FT. BUT WITH PERIODS AROUND 8 SECONDS...IT
WILL NOT BE AS CHOPPY AS PREVIOUS DAYS.

TONIGHT...THE RIDGE AXIS WILL PRESS SOUTH OF THE WATERS AND A
SLIGHTLY STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW 10-15 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP OVER NORTH
AND CENTRAL WATERS.

TUE...BROAD HI PRES RIDGE DRAPED OVER CENTRAL/SOUTH FL WILL GENERATE
A LIGHT TO GENTLE W/NW BREEZE THRU MIDDAY. WEAK PGRAD WILL ALLOW THE
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE TO FORM BY EARLY AFTN WITH SFC WINDS BCMG A
LIGHT TO GENTLE SERLY BREEZE THRU SUNSET. SEAS 2-3FT WITH DOMINANT
PDS 7-8SEC.

TUE NIGHT... A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO N FL OVERNIGHT...
FORCING WINDS TO VEER TO THE S/SW THRU MIDNIGHT THEN TO THE W THRU
SUNRISE...GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZE N OF SEBASTIAN INLET AND LIGHT
TO GENTLE TO THE S. SEAS 2-3FT OVER MOST OF THE AREA...UP TO 4FT IN
THE GULF STREAM. DVLPG OFFSHORE COMPONENT WILL GENERATE CHOPPY SHORT
PD WIND WAVES.

WED-WED NIGHT...FRONTAL BNDRY WILL BREAK UP OVER THE FL PENINSULA AS
THE POST FRONTAL RIDGE BUILDS OFF THE MID ATLC COAST. GENTLE TO
MODERATE W/NW BREEZE BCMG A LIGHT TO GENTLE NE BREEZE THRU THE
DAYLIGHT HRS... BCMG LIGHT TO GENTLE E/NE OVERNIGHT. SEAS 2-3FT
NEARSHORE AND 3-4FT OFFSHORE THRU THE DAY...SUBSIDING TO 2FT
OVERNIGHT.

THU-FRI...POST FRONTAL RIDGE WILL BRIDGE THE FRONTAL TROF AND MERGE
WITH THE ATLC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EAST OF THE BAHAMA BANK THROUGH THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. POSITION OF THE RIDGE AXIS OVER N FL WILL
GENERATE A GENTLE TO MODERATE SERLY BREEZE THRU SUNSET FRI. WINDS
VEERING TO S/SW FRI NIGHT AS A NEW COLD FRONT PRESSES INTO THE DEEP
SOUTH. SEAS 2-3FT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LONG DURATION OF CRITICAL RH (BELOW 35 PERCENT) ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON. MIN RH VALUES WILL REACH 25-30 PERCENT BUT
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  76  58  78  62 /   0  10  10  10
MCO  80  58  83  63 /   0  10  10  10
MLB  76  55  78  61 /   0  10   0  10
VRB  77  54  77  60 /   0  10   0  10
LEE  79  59  83  63 /   0  10  10  10
SFB  78  58  83  63 /   0  10  10  10
ORL  79  59  83  63 /   0  10  10  10
FPR  76  54  78  60 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KELLY
LONG TERM....BRAGAW





000
FXUS62 KMLB 300126
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
927 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...CHILLY TONIGHT THEN MODERATING TEMPS...

TONIGHT/MON...
SURFACE HIGH CURRENTLY OVER THE COASTAL CAROLINAS WILL CONTINUE A
TRANSIT OFFSHORE OVER THE OPEN ATLC. LOCAL WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO
LESS THAN 5 MPH OVER THE AREA BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. AIRMASS TOO DRY TO
SUPPORT FOG DEVELOPMENT ONE MORE NIGHT OF COOL READINGS IN THE MID
TO UPR 40S INLAND AND 50S ALONG THE ISLANDS WL OCCUR. THE FORECAST
IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WITH NO CIGS FORECAST THROUGH MON.

&&

.MARINE... OVERNIGHT A WEAK BACK DOOR BOUNDARY IS SHOWN SETTLING
INTO OUR NORTHERN WATERS BY THE NAM TONIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR
NEAR THE GULF STREAM AND NE FL WATERS.  OTHERWISE WINDS/SEAS WILL
DIMINISH AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS SETTLES SOUTH AND REACHES THE
COASTAL WATERS ON MON.


&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

JP/TES




000
FXUS62 KMLB 300126
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
927 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...CHILLY TONIGHT THEN MODERATING TEMPS...

TONIGHT/MON...
SURFACE HIGH CURRENTLY OVER THE COASTAL CAROLINAS WILL CONTINUE A
TRANSIT OFFSHORE OVER THE OPEN ATLC. LOCAL WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO
LESS THAN 5 MPH OVER THE AREA BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. AIRMASS TOO DRY TO
SUPPORT FOG DEVELOPMENT ONE MORE NIGHT OF COOL READINGS IN THE MID
TO UPR 40S INLAND AND 50S ALONG THE ISLANDS WL OCCUR. THE FORECAST
IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WITH NO CIGS FORECAST THROUGH MON.

&&

.MARINE... OVERNIGHT A WEAK BACK DOOR BOUNDARY IS SHOWN SETTLING
INTO OUR NORTHERN WATERS BY THE NAM TONIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR
NEAR THE GULF STREAM AND NE FL WATERS.  OTHERWISE WINDS/SEAS WILL
DIMINISH AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS SETTLES SOUTH AND REACHES THE
COASTAL WATERS ON MON.


&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

JP/TES




000
FXUS62 KMLB 291944
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
344 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...CHILLY TONIGHT THEN MODERATING TEMPS...

TONIGHT/MON...
LITTLE CHANGE...EXCEPT WEAK BACK DOOR BOUNDARY IS SHOWN SETTLING
INTO THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS BY THE NAM. THE MODEL SHOWS SOME
PRECIP ALONG THE NORTH COAST...BUT IT LOOKS TOO DRY FOR THAT AND
WILL CONFINE ANY SMALL POPS TO THE ATLANTIC WATERS.

OTHERWISE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER VICINITY CAROLINAS WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST WHILE WEAKENING. RIDGE AXIS WILL BECOME ORIENTED
WEST/EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PENINSULA ON MON. THE ONLY
ABNORMALITY WILL BE CHILLY OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND
50. WEAK ONSHORE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL KEEP IT A FEW DEGREES
MORE MILD ALONG THE BARRIER ISLANDS. MAX TEMPS WILL RECOVER CLOSER
TO NORMAL ON MON.

MON NIGHT-SAT...
DE-AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER W-RIDGE/E-TROUGH PATTERN LOOKS TO
DAMPEN EARLY IN THE PERIOD TO TAKE ON A GREATER COMPONENT OF ZONAL
FLOW. A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRANSITION SOUTH AND
LOCATE E-W OVER THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. MUCH WEAKER FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TRIES TO SETTLE NEAR THE AREA TUE/WED BUT EVENTUALLY
WASHES OUT. YET...IT WILL BE ENOUGH TO RE-INTRODUCE SOME SHOWERS
TO THE FORECAST. TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE SO WILL NEED
TO WATCH FOR THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS FORECAST EVOLVES... WITH AN
EYE ON ISOLATED GUST/HAIL POTENTIAL. THEN THE ATLC SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AXIS WILL BUILD WEST OVER THE FL PENINSULA MID TO LATE WEEK
YIELDING MODERATING TEMPERATURES. EVEN SO...A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THE GULF COAST
WED AND TOWARD FL THU. THIS MODEL FEATURE WAS HAVING DIFFICULTY
MAINTAINING IDENTITY AND MOISTURE WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED...BUT
SFC HEATING COMBINED WITH SEA BREEZE INTERACTIONS SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE ISOLATED AFTN CONVECTION FOR THU.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT-MON...WEAK BACK DOOR BOUNDARY IS SHOWN SETTLING INTO OUR
NORTHERN WATERS BY THE NAM TONIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR NEAR
THE GULF STREAM.  OTHERWISE WINDS/SEAS WILL DIMINISH AS A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS SETTLES SOUTH AND REACHES THE COASTAL WATERS
ON MON.

MON NIGHT-THU...(FROM PREVIOUS) BOATING CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE AS
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS SETTLES OVER THE AREA AND PRES GRAD
COLLAPSES INTO MON NIGHT. THE TAIL END OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
FORECAST TO PUSH SOUTH INTO THE ADJ ATLC WATERS MON NIGHT/TUE AND
PRODUCE A PERIOD OF NW-N WINDS 10-15 KNOTS. FOLLOWING THAT...A WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT PATTERN SHOULD BE IN PLACE WHICH WILL SUPPORT A
SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION NEAR THE COAST EACH AFTN. SEAS 3-4 FEET MON
MAINLY IN SWELL...SUBSIDING TO 2 FEET BY MID WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MINIMUM RH VALUES AROUND 30 PERCENT WILL OCCUR
AGAIN OVER THE INTERIOR MONDAY...BUT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. NO
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WORKWEEK WITH THE PRESENCE OF WEAK WINDS AND GRADUALLY INCREASING
MOISTURE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  47  77  57  75 /   0   0  10  20
MCO  48  81  59  80 /   0   0  10  20
MLB  50  77  55  77 /   0   0  10  10
VRB  49  77  54  79 /   0   0  10  10
LEE  48  79  59  81 /   0   0  10  20
SFB  47  80  60  80 /   0   0  10  20
ORL  51  79  59  80 /   0   0  10  20
FPR  48  77  52  79 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LASCODY
LONG TERM....SHARP





000
FXUS62 KMLB 291944
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
344 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...CHILLY TONIGHT THEN MODERATING TEMPS...

TONIGHT/MON...
LITTLE CHANGE...EXCEPT WEAK BACK DOOR BOUNDARY IS SHOWN SETTLING
INTO THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS BY THE NAM. THE MODEL SHOWS SOME
PRECIP ALONG THE NORTH COAST...BUT IT LOOKS TOO DRY FOR THAT AND
WILL CONFINE ANY SMALL POPS TO THE ATLANTIC WATERS.

OTHERWISE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER VICINITY CAROLINAS WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST WHILE WEAKENING. RIDGE AXIS WILL BECOME ORIENTED
WEST/EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PENINSULA ON MON. THE ONLY
ABNORMALITY WILL BE CHILLY OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND
50. WEAK ONSHORE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL KEEP IT A FEW DEGREES
MORE MILD ALONG THE BARRIER ISLANDS. MAX TEMPS WILL RECOVER CLOSER
TO NORMAL ON MON.

MON NIGHT-SAT...
DE-AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER W-RIDGE/E-TROUGH PATTERN LOOKS TO
DAMPEN EARLY IN THE PERIOD TO TAKE ON A GREATER COMPONENT OF ZONAL
FLOW. A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRANSITION SOUTH AND
LOCATE E-W OVER THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. MUCH WEAKER FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TRIES TO SETTLE NEAR THE AREA TUE/WED BUT EVENTUALLY
WASHES OUT. YET...IT WILL BE ENOUGH TO RE-INTRODUCE SOME SHOWERS
TO THE FORECAST. TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE SO WILL NEED
TO WATCH FOR THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS FORECAST EVOLVES... WITH AN
EYE ON ISOLATED GUST/HAIL POTENTIAL. THEN THE ATLC SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AXIS WILL BUILD WEST OVER THE FL PENINSULA MID TO LATE WEEK
YIELDING MODERATING TEMPERATURES. EVEN SO...A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THE GULF COAST
WED AND TOWARD FL THU. THIS MODEL FEATURE WAS HAVING DIFFICULTY
MAINTAINING IDENTITY AND MOISTURE WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED...BUT
SFC HEATING COMBINED WITH SEA BREEZE INTERACTIONS SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE ISOLATED AFTN CONVECTION FOR THU.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT-MON...WEAK BACK DOOR BOUNDARY IS SHOWN SETTLING INTO OUR
NORTHERN WATERS BY THE NAM TONIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR NEAR
THE GULF STREAM.  OTHERWISE WINDS/SEAS WILL DIMINISH AS A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS SETTLES SOUTH AND REACHES THE COASTAL WATERS
ON MON.

MON NIGHT-THU...(FROM PREVIOUS) BOATING CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE AS
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS SETTLES OVER THE AREA AND PRES GRAD
COLLAPSES INTO MON NIGHT. THE TAIL END OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
FORECAST TO PUSH SOUTH INTO THE ADJ ATLC WATERS MON NIGHT/TUE AND
PRODUCE A PERIOD OF NW-N WINDS 10-15 KNOTS. FOLLOWING THAT...A WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT PATTERN SHOULD BE IN PLACE WHICH WILL SUPPORT A
SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION NEAR THE COAST EACH AFTN. SEAS 3-4 FEET MON
MAINLY IN SWELL...SUBSIDING TO 2 FEET BY MID WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MINIMUM RH VALUES AROUND 30 PERCENT WILL OCCUR
AGAIN OVER THE INTERIOR MONDAY...BUT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. NO
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WORKWEEK WITH THE PRESENCE OF WEAK WINDS AND GRADUALLY INCREASING
MOISTURE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  47  77  57  75 /   0   0  10  20
MCO  48  81  59  80 /   0   0  10  20
MLB  50  77  55  77 /   0   0  10  10
VRB  49  77  54  79 /   0   0  10  10
LEE  48  79  59  81 /   0   0  10  20
SFB  47  80  60  80 /   0   0  10  20
ORL  51  79  59  80 /   0   0  10  20
FPR  48  77  52  79 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LASCODY
LONG TERM....SHARP




000
FXUS62 KMLB 291335
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
935 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...ANOTHER COLD NIGHT TONIGHT THEN MODERATING TEMPERATURES...
...BOATING CONDITIONS POOR TODAY THEN IMPROVING...

TODAY/TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE CENTER VICINITY CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST WHILE ORIENTATION
OF THE RIDGE BECOMES WEST/EAST AS COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARDS THE
EASTERN SEABOARD.  THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE COOL NORTH WIND FLOW
TODAY...SO EVEN WITH FULL SUNSHINE...MAX TEMPS WILL BE NEAR 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH TONIGHT AS SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SETTLES INTO NORTH PART
OF PENINSULA. THIS WILL RESULT IN RATHER SIMILAR LOW TEMPS FOR
THE AREA IN THE MID/UPPER 40S...EXCEPT CLOSE TO THE COAST LOWS
WILL BE MORE MILD DUE TO LIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS OUT OF THE
EAST. WILL THEREFORE OPEN UP A RANGE OF LOWS FOR COASTAL ZONES.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY/TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE CENTER DROPPING SOUTHEAST OUT OF
THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY STRENGTHENED A FEW MILLIBARS AS
WAS FORECAST.  THIS HAS TEMPORARILY TIGHTENED THE GRADIENT AND
PRODUCED 15 KNOT NORTHERLY WINDS AND POOR CONDITIONS FOR SMALL
CRAFT IN THE GULF STREAM.  WINDS WILL EASE TONIGHT AS THE AXIS
OF SURFACE RIDGE GETS NEAR...RESULTING IN LIGHT EAST WIND FLOW.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD LOWS FOR MARCH 30:
DAB 39 1955
MCO 38 1937
MLB 44 1941
VRB 46 2013

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

LASCODY/SHARP




000
FXUS62 KMLB 291335
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
935 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...ANOTHER COLD NIGHT TONIGHT THEN MODERATING TEMPERATURES...
...BOATING CONDITIONS POOR TODAY THEN IMPROVING...

TODAY/TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE CENTER VICINITY CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST WHILE ORIENTATION
OF THE RIDGE BECOMES WEST/EAST AS COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARDS THE
EASTERN SEABOARD.  THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE COOL NORTH WIND FLOW
TODAY...SO EVEN WITH FULL SUNSHINE...MAX TEMPS WILL BE NEAR 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH TONIGHT AS SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SETTLES INTO NORTH PART
OF PENINSULA. THIS WILL RESULT IN RATHER SIMILAR LOW TEMPS FOR
THE AREA IN THE MID/UPPER 40S...EXCEPT CLOSE TO THE COAST LOWS
WILL BE MORE MILD DUE TO LIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS OUT OF THE
EAST. WILL THEREFORE OPEN UP A RANGE OF LOWS FOR COASTAL ZONES.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY/TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE CENTER DROPPING SOUTHEAST OUT OF
THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY STRENGTHENED A FEW MILLIBARS AS
WAS FORECAST.  THIS HAS TEMPORARILY TIGHTENED THE GRADIENT AND
PRODUCED 15 KNOT NORTHERLY WINDS AND POOR CONDITIONS FOR SMALL
CRAFT IN THE GULF STREAM.  WINDS WILL EASE TONIGHT AS THE AXIS
OF SURFACE RIDGE GETS NEAR...RESULTING IN LIGHT EAST WIND FLOW.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD LOWS FOR MARCH 30:
DAB 39 1955
MCO 38 1937
MLB 44 1941
VRB 46 2013

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

LASCODY/SHARP





000
FXUS62 KMLB 290850
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
445 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...ANOTHER COLD NIGHT TONIGHT THEN MODERATING TEMPERATURES...
...BOATING CONDITIONS POOR TODAY THEN IMPROVING...

TODAY/TONIGHT...LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER
THE MIDWEST AND OHIO RIVER VALLEY STRETCHES SOUTH INTO THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AND ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. NORTHWEST
FLOW FROM JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE THROUGH THE MID LEVELS...850-
500MB...PUSHES THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER TO THE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
NORTHEAST FLORIDA AREA WHERE THE HIGH BEGINS TO STRETCH WEST TO EAST
IN RESPONSE TO A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND FLATTENING
MID LEVEL FLOW OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AS THE HIGH CENTER SHIFTS
TO THE SOUTHEAST NORTHWEST WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY SUNDAY AND LIGHT
NORTHEAST TO CALM SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH APPROACHES
CENTRAL FLORIDA. TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS SHOW A DECREASING DEPTH
OF MOISTURE AND A STRENGTHENING/DEEPENING CAP/DRY AIR MASS CROSSING
OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL FLORIDA THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. CURRENT DRY
FORECAST LOOKS FINE. NORTHWEST TO NORTH FLOW WILL KEEP BOTH DAYTIME
AND OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW THEIR CLIMATE
AROUND 80 AND UPPER 50S.

MON-FRI...THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN OF RIDGE IN THE WEST AND
TROUGH IN THE EAST WILL BREAK DOWN EARLY IN THE WEEK RESULTING IN A
MORE ZONAL FLOW. AT THE SFC...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRESS SOUTH
OVER THE AREA MONDAY THEN THE TAIL END OF A MUCH WEAKER FRONT WILL SETTLE
ACROSS THE AREA TUE AND WASH OUT. THEN THE ATLC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
AXIS WILL BUILD WEST OVER THE FL PENINSULA MID TO LATE WEEK. THIS WILL
PRODUCE MODERATING TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS CREEPING BACK ABOVE NORMAL INTO
THE MID 80S INTERIOR AND LOW 80S COAST BY THU AND FRI.

MEANWHILE...A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL MOVE EAST
ALONG THE GULF COAST WED AND CROSS FL THU. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED...SFC HEATING COMBINED WITH SEA BREEZE INTERACTIONS SHOULD PRODUCE
ISOLATED AFTN STORMS ESP THU. FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW IMPRESSIVE
LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 850-500MB...COLD MID LEVEL TEMPS AND DRY AIR ALOFT SO
THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO GENERATE A FEW STORMS. COVERAGE
LOOKS TO BE ISOLATED GIVEN THE LOW PRECIP WATER VALUES (1.2 TO 1.3 INCHES)
BUT ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM MAY CONTAIN SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. THIS
IS NOT UNCOMMON AS WE BEGIN THE TRANSITION TO THE WET SEASON.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY/TONIGHT... HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE MIDWEST AND OHIO
RIVER VALLEY WILL SETTLE TO THE VICINITY OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND
NORTHEAST FLORIDA BY MONDAY MORNING. NORTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY SHIFT TO
THE NORTH AND FRESHEN TO AROUND 15 KNOTS TODAY THEN DIMINISH TO 10
TO 15 KNOTS AS THEY SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE NORTH WINDS TODAY WILL PRODUCE CHOPPY
CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY IN THE GULF STREAM WITH SEAS UP TO 5 FEET.

MON-THU...BOATING CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE AS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE AXIS SETTLES OVER THE AREA AND PRES GRAD COLLAPSES MON. THE
TAIL END OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO PUSH SOUTH INTO THE
ADJ ATLC WATERS MON NIGHT/TUE AND PRODUCE A PERIOD OF NW-N WINDS 10-15
KNOTS. FOLLOWING THAT...A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT PATTERN SHOULD BE IN
PLACE WHICH WILL SUPPORT A SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION NEAR THE COAST EACH
AFTN. SEAS 3-4 FEET MON MAINLY IN SWELL...SUBSIDING TO 2 FEET BY MID WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MINIMUM RH VALUES IN THE 20S WILL OCCUR AGAIN OVER
THE INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN MONDAY...BUT WINDS WILL BE WEAKER.
NO HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE WORKWEEK WITH PRESENCE
OF WEAK WIND AND AN ONSHORE COMPONENT AT TIMES EARLY IN THE WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD LOWS FOR MARCH 29:
DAB 37 1955
MCO 39 1955
MLB 43 1983, 1955
VRB 44 2013

RECORD LOWS FOR MARCH 30:
DAB 39 1955
MCO 38 1937
MLB 44 1941
VRB 46 2013

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  65  47  77  57 /  10  10   0  10
MCO  71  49  79  59 /  10  10   0   0
MLB  69  47  75  55 /   0  10   0   0
VRB  70  46  76  54 /   0  10   0   0
LEE  70  50  79  59 /   0  10   0   0
SFB  69  49  79  60 /  10  10   0   0
ORL  70  51  79  59 /  10  10   0   0
FPR  70  46  76  52 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WIMMER
LONG TERM....KELLY




000
FXUS62 KMLB 290850
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
445 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...ANOTHER COLD NIGHT TONIGHT THEN MODERATING TEMPERATURES...
...BOATING CONDITIONS POOR TODAY THEN IMPROVING...

TODAY/TONIGHT...LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER
THE MIDWEST AND OHIO RIVER VALLEY STRETCHES SOUTH INTO THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AND ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. NORTHWEST
FLOW FROM JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE THROUGH THE MID LEVELS...850-
500MB...PUSHES THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER TO THE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
NORTHEAST FLORIDA AREA WHERE THE HIGH BEGINS TO STRETCH WEST TO EAST
IN RESPONSE TO A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND FLATTENING
MID LEVEL FLOW OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AS THE HIGH CENTER SHIFTS
TO THE SOUTHEAST NORTHWEST WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY SUNDAY AND LIGHT
NORTHEAST TO CALM SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH APPROACHES
CENTRAL FLORIDA. TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS SHOW A DECREASING DEPTH
OF MOISTURE AND A STRENGTHENING/DEEPENING CAP/DRY AIR MASS CROSSING
OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL FLORIDA THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. CURRENT DRY
FORECAST LOOKS FINE. NORTHWEST TO NORTH FLOW WILL KEEP BOTH DAYTIME
AND OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW THEIR CLIMATE
AROUND 80 AND UPPER 50S.

MON-FRI...THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN OF RIDGE IN THE WEST AND
TROUGH IN THE EAST WILL BREAK DOWN EARLY IN THE WEEK RESULTING IN A
MORE ZONAL FLOW. AT THE SFC...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRESS SOUTH
OVER THE AREA MONDAY THEN THE TAIL END OF A MUCH WEAKER FRONT WILL SETTLE
ACROSS THE AREA TUE AND WASH OUT. THEN THE ATLC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
AXIS WILL BUILD WEST OVER THE FL PENINSULA MID TO LATE WEEK. THIS WILL
PRODUCE MODERATING TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS CREEPING BACK ABOVE NORMAL INTO
THE MID 80S INTERIOR AND LOW 80S COAST BY THU AND FRI.

MEANWHILE...A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL MOVE EAST
ALONG THE GULF COAST WED AND CROSS FL THU. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED...SFC HEATING COMBINED WITH SEA BREEZE INTERACTIONS SHOULD PRODUCE
ISOLATED AFTN STORMS ESP THU. FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW IMPRESSIVE
LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 850-500MB...COLD MID LEVEL TEMPS AND DRY AIR ALOFT SO
THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO GENERATE A FEW STORMS. COVERAGE
LOOKS TO BE ISOLATED GIVEN THE LOW PRECIP WATER VALUES (1.2 TO 1.3 INCHES)
BUT ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM MAY CONTAIN SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. THIS
IS NOT UNCOMMON AS WE BEGIN THE TRANSITION TO THE WET SEASON.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY/TONIGHT... HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE MIDWEST AND OHIO
RIVER VALLEY WILL SETTLE TO THE VICINITY OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND
NORTHEAST FLORIDA BY MONDAY MORNING. NORTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY SHIFT TO
THE NORTH AND FRESHEN TO AROUND 15 KNOTS TODAY THEN DIMINISH TO 10
TO 15 KNOTS AS THEY SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE NORTH WINDS TODAY WILL PRODUCE CHOPPY
CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY IN THE GULF STREAM WITH SEAS UP TO 5 FEET.

MON-THU...BOATING CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE AS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE AXIS SETTLES OVER THE AREA AND PRES GRAD COLLAPSES MON. THE
TAIL END OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO PUSH SOUTH INTO THE
ADJ ATLC WATERS MON NIGHT/TUE AND PRODUCE A PERIOD OF NW-N WINDS 10-15
KNOTS. FOLLOWING THAT...A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT PATTERN SHOULD BE IN
PLACE WHICH WILL SUPPORT A SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION NEAR THE COAST EACH
AFTN. SEAS 3-4 FEET MON MAINLY IN SWELL...SUBSIDING TO 2 FEET BY MID WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MINIMUM RH VALUES IN THE 20S WILL OCCUR AGAIN OVER
THE INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN MONDAY...BUT WINDS WILL BE WEAKER.
NO HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE WORKWEEK WITH PRESENCE
OF WEAK WIND AND AN ONSHORE COMPONENT AT TIMES EARLY IN THE WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD LOWS FOR MARCH 29:
DAB 37 1955
MCO 39 1955
MLB 43 1983, 1955
VRB 44 2013

RECORD LOWS FOR MARCH 30:
DAB 39 1955
MCO 38 1937
MLB 44 1941
VRB 46 2013

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  65  47  77  57 /  10  10   0  10
MCO  71  49  79  59 /  10  10   0   0
MLB  69  47  75  55 /   0  10   0   0
VRB  70  46  76  54 /   0  10   0   0
LEE  70  50  79  59 /   0  10   0   0
SFB  69  49  79  60 /  10  10   0   0
ORL  70  51  79  59 /  10  10   0   0
FPR  70  46  76  52 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WIMMER
LONG TERM....KELLY





000
FXUS62 KMLB 290027
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
827 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...ASIDE FROM SOME HIGH CLOUDS PASSING OVERHEAD...A CLEAR
AND CALM NIGHT IS EXPECTED. COOL LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
CONTINUE...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DIP INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE
AREA AWAY FROM THE COAST. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE ABOUT 10-15
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO
HINT AT NEAR RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES BY SUNRISE TOMORROW MORNING
IN VERO BEACH...HOWEVER...GIVEN THE STUBBORN HIGH CLOUDINESS
PASSING OVERHEAD...THINK THIS MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE.
REGARDLESS...IT WILL BE CHILLY TONIGHT.

ASIDE FROM SOME WIND AND TEMPERATURES ADJUSTMENTS...THIS
AFTERNOON`S FORECAST PACKAGE REMAINS ON TRACK. NO FURTHER UPDATES
PLANNED.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS OVERNIGHT.


&&

.MARINE...WINDS HAVE DROPPED OFF QUITE A BIT THIS EVENING AS THE
LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. IN FACT...BUOY 41009
HAS RECORDED NEAR CALM WINDS FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. SUSPECT
THIS TREND WILL NOT LAST VERY LONG AND WINDS SHOULD INCREASE BACK
UP TO 10 KNOTS OR SO OVERNIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST COAST SHOULD HELP
INCREASE THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT A BIT DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY...WITH A NORTHERLY BREEZE NEAR 15 KNOTS EXPECTED. POOR
BOATING CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY ENSUE OFFSHORE...PARTICULARLY IN
THE GULF STREAM.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MAV GUIDANCE AT VERO BEACH IS 44 DEGREES SUNDAY MORNING.

RECORD LOWS FOR TOMORROW MORNING...
DAB 37 1955
MCO 39 1955
MLB 43 1983
VRB 44 2013

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  43  65  47  78 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  48  71  49  81 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  45  69  49  77 /   0   0   0   0
VRB  44  70  49  76 /   0   0   0   0
LEE  45  70  50  80 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  46  69  49  79 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  50  70  51  79 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  45  70  48  77 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION/FORECAST UPDATE...ULRICH
IMPACT WEATHER....SEDLOCK




000
FXUS62 KMLB 290027
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
827 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...ASIDE FROM SOME HIGH CLOUDS PASSING OVERHEAD...A CLEAR
AND CALM NIGHT IS EXPECTED. COOL LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
CONTINUE...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DIP INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE
AREA AWAY FROM THE COAST. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE ABOUT 10-15
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO
HINT AT NEAR RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES BY SUNRISE TOMORROW MORNING
IN VERO BEACH...HOWEVER...GIVEN THE STUBBORN HIGH CLOUDINESS
PASSING OVERHEAD...THINK THIS MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE.
REGARDLESS...IT WILL BE CHILLY TONIGHT.

ASIDE FROM SOME WIND AND TEMPERATURES ADJUSTMENTS...THIS
AFTERNOON`S FORECAST PACKAGE REMAINS ON TRACK. NO FURTHER UPDATES
PLANNED.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS OVERNIGHT.


&&

.MARINE...WINDS HAVE DROPPED OFF QUITE A BIT THIS EVENING AS THE
LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. IN FACT...BUOY 41009
HAS RECORDED NEAR CALM WINDS FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. SUSPECT
THIS TREND WILL NOT LAST VERY LONG AND WINDS SHOULD INCREASE BACK
UP TO 10 KNOTS OR SO OVERNIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST COAST SHOULD HELP
INCREASE THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT A BIT DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY...WITH A NORTHERLY BREEZE NEAR 15 KNOTS EXPECTED. POOR
BOATING CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY ENSUE OFFSHORE...PARTICULARLY IN
THE GULF STREAM.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MAV GUIDANCE AT VERO BEACH IS 44 DEGREES SUNDAY MORNING.

RECORD LOWS FOR TOMORROW MORNING...
DAB 37 1955
MCO 39 1955
MLB 43 1983
VRB 44 2013

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  43  65  47  78 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  48  71  49  81 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  45  69  49  77 /   0   0   0   0
VRB  44  70  49  76 /   0   0   0   0
LEE  45  70  50  80 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  46  69  49  79 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  50  70  51  79 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  45  70  48  77 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION/FORECAST UPDATE...ULRICH
IMPACT WEATHER....SEDLOCK




000
FXUS62 KMLB 290027
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
827 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...ASIDE FROM SOME HIGH CLOUDS PASSING OVERHEAD...A CLEAR
AND CALM NIGHT IS EXPECTED. COOL LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
CONTINUE...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DIP INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE
AREA AWAY FROM THE COAST. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE ABOUT 10-15
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO
HINT AT NEAR RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES BY SUNRISE TOMORROW MORNING
IN VERO BEACH...HOWEVER...GIVEN THE STUBBORN HIGH CLOUDINESS
PASSING OVERHEAD...THINK THIS MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE.
REGARDLESS...IT WILL BE CHILLY TONIGHT.

ASIDE FROM SOME WIND AND TEMPERATURES ADJUSTMENTS...THIS
AFTERNOON`S FORECAST PACKAGE REMAINS ON TRACK. NO FURTHER UPDATES
PLANNED.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS OVERNIGHT.


&&

.MARINE...WINDS HAVE DROPPED OFF QUITE A BIT THIS EVENING AS THE
LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. IN FACT...BUOY 41009
HAS RECORDED NEAR CALM WINDS FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. SUSPECT
THIS TREND WILL NOT LAST VERY LONG AND WINDS SHOULD INCREASE BACK
UP TO 10 KNOTS OR SO OVERNIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST COAST SHOULD HELP
INCREASE THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT A BIT DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY...WITH A NORTHERLY BREEZE NEAR 15 KNOTS EXPECTED. POOR
BOATING CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY ENSUE OFFSHORE...PARTICULARLY IN
THE GULF STREAM.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MAV GUIDANCE AT VERO BEACH IS 44 DEGREES SUNDAY MORNING.

RECORD LOWS FOR TOMORROW MORNING...
DAB 37 1955
MCO 39 1955
MLB 43 1983
VRB 44 2013

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  43  65  47  78 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  48  71  49  81 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  45  69  49  77 /   0   0   0   0
VRB  44  70  49  76 /   0   0   0   0
LEE  45  70  50  80 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  46  69  49  79 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  50  70  51  79 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  45  70  48  77 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION/FORECAST UPDATE...ULRICH
IMPACT WEATHER....SEDLOCK





000
FXUS62 KMLB 290027
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
827 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...ASIDE FROM SOME HIGH CLOUDS PASSING OVERHEAD...A CLEAR
AND CALM NIGHT IS EXPECTED. COOL LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
CONTINUE...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DIP INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE
AREA AWAY FROM THE COAST. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE ABOUT 10-15
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO
HINT AT NEAR RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES BY SUNRISE TOMORROW MORNING
IN VERO BEACH...HOWEVER...GIVEN THE STUBBORN HIGH CLOUDINESS
PASSING OVERHEAD...THINK THIS MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE.
REGARDLESS...IT WILL BE CHILLY TONIGHT.

ASIDE FROM SOME WIND AND TEMPERATURES ADJUSTMENTS...THIS
AFTERNOON`S FORECAST PACKAGE REMAINS ON TRACK. NO FURTHER UPDATES
PLANNED.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS OVERNIGHT.


&&

.MARINE...WINDS HAVE DROPPED OFF QUITE A BIT THIS EVENING AS THE
LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. IN FACT...BUOY 41009
HAS RECORDED NEAR CALM WINDS FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. SUSPECT
THIS TREND WILL NOT LAST VERY LONG AND WINDS SHOULD INCREASE BACK
UP TO 10 KNOTS OR SO OVERNIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST COAST SHOULD HELP
INCREASE THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT A BIT DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY...WITH A NORTHERLY BREEZE NEAR 15 KNOTS EXPECTED. POOR
BOATING CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY ENSUE OFFSHORE...PARTICULARLY IN
THE GULF STREAM.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MAV GUIDANCE AT VERO BEACH IS 44 DEGREES SUNDAY MORNING.

RECORD LOWS FOR TOMORROW MORNING...
DAB 37 1955
MCO 39 1955
MLB 43 1983
VRB 44 2013

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  43  65  47  78 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  48  71  49  81 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  45  69  49  77 /   0   0   0   0
VRB  44  70  49  76 /   0   0   0   0
LEE  45  70  50  80 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  46  69  49  79 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  50  70  51  79 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  45  70  48  77 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION/FORECAST UPDATE...ULRICH
IMPACT WEATHER....SEDLOCK





000
FXUS62 KMLB 281934
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
333 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT-SUNDAY...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FAIR WEATHER FORECAST. THE
CENTER OF A LARGE...COOL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LUMBER
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE MID PART OF THE COUNTRY TO VICINITY OF
GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA SUN AFTERNOON. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A
NORTHWEST/NORTH FLOW OF COOLER THAN NORMAL AIR. OVERNIGHT LOWS
LOOK MAINLY IN THE 40S...WHICH WILL BE THE COOLEST READINGS SINCE
FEB 20-21. THE NORTHERLY WIND TRAJECTORY WILL ALSO KEEP SOME COOL
ADVECTION GOING ON SUNDAY...SO EVEN WITH FULL SUN...HIGH TEMPS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S...WITH SOME MID 60S ALONG THE
VOLUSIA COAST.

MON-FRI...(FROM PREV DISC)THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN OF
RIDGE IN THE WEST AND TROUGH IN THE EAST WILL BREAK DOWN EARLY IN
THE WEEK RESULTING IN A MORE ZONAL FLOW. AT THE SFC...THE TAIL END
OF A MUCH WEAKER FRONT WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA TUE AND WASH OUT.
THEN THE ATLC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WILL BUILD WEST OVER THE
NORTH/CENTRAL FL PENINSULA MID TO LATE WEEK. THIS WILL PRODUCE
MODERATING TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS CREEPING BACK ABOVE NORMAL INTO
THE MID 80S INTERIOR AND LOW 80S COAST BY FRI. A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL APPROACH THEN CROSS FL WED INTO
THU SO HAVE MAINTAINED SMALL SHOWER CHANCES THEN. NO SEVERE WEATHER
(OR EVEN THUNDER) IS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT-SUN...PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN AND WILL
EXPIRE THE OFFSHORE ADVISORY WITH THE NEXT FORECAST ISSUANCE. WILL
CARRY A SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION STATEMENT IN THE GULF STREAM
FOR THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL SETTLE
TO VICINITY GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA ON SUNDAY WHILE STRENGTHENING A
COUPLE MILLIBARS. THEREFORE...A NORTHERLY BREEZE NEAR 15 KNOTS CAN
BE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH POOR CONDITIONS OCCURRING OFFSHORE...
PARTICULARLY IN THE GULF STREAM.

MON-WED...BOATING CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE AS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE AXIS SETTLES OVER THE AREA AND PRES GRAD COLLAPSES MON. THE
TAIL END OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO PUSH SOUTH INTO THE
ADJ ATLC WATERS TUE AND PRODUCE A PERIOD OF NW-N WINDS 10- 15
KNOTS. THEN A MORE PERSISTENT E-SE FLOW SHOULD DEVELOP FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS ATLC HIGH BUILDS WEST ACROSS THE WATERS
WITH SEAS 2-3 FEET.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MINIMUM RH VALUES IN THE 20S WILL OCCUR AGAIN
SUNDAY OVER THE INTERIOR...BUT WINDS WILL BE WEAKER. NO HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE WORKWEEK WITH PRESENCE OF WEAK
WIND AND AN ONSHORE COMPONENT AT TIMES EARLY IN THE WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MAV GUIDANCE AT VERO BEACH IS 44 DEGREES SUNDAY MORNING.

RECORD LOWS FOR TOMORROW MORNING...
DAB 37 1955
MCO 39 1955
MLB 43 1983
VRB 44 2013

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  43  65  47  78 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  48  71  49  81 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  45  69  49  77 /   0   0   0   0
VRB  44  70  49  76 /   0   0   0   0
LEE  45  70  50  80 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  46  69  49  79 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  50  70  51  79 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  45  70  48  77 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LASCODY
LONG TERM....PENDERGRAST




000
FXUS62 KMLB 281934
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
333 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT-SUNDAY...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FAIR WEATHER FORECAST. THE
CENTER OF A LARGE...COOL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LUMBER
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE MID PART OF THE COUNTRY TO VICINITY OF
GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA SUN AFTERNOON. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A
NORTHWEST/NORTH FLOW OF COOLER THAN NORMAL AIR. OVERNIGHT LOWS
LOOK MAINLY IN THE 40S...WHICH WILL BE THE COOLEST READINGS SINCE
FEB 20-21. THE NORTHERLY WIND TRAJECTORY WILL ALSO KEEP SOME COOL
ADVECTION GOING ON SUNDAY...SO EVEN WITH FULL SUN...HIGH TEMPS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S...WITH SOME MID 60S ALONG THE
VOLUSIA COAST.

MON-FRI...(FROM PREV DISC)THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN OF
RIDGE IN THE WEST AND TROUGH IN THE EAST WILL BREAK DOWN EARLY IN
THE WEEK RESULTING IN A MORE ZONAL FLOW. AT THE SFC...THE TAIL END
OF A MUCH WEAKER FRONT WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA TUE AND WASH OUT.
THEN THE ATLC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WILL BUILD WEST OVER THE
NORTH/CENTRAL FL PENINSULA MID TO LATE WEEK. THIS WILL PRODUCE
MODERATING TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS CREEPING BACK ABOVE NORMAL INTO
THE MID 80S INTERIOR AND LOW 80S COAST BY FRI. A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL APPROACH THEN CROSS FL WED INTO
THU SO HAVE MAINTAINED SMALL SHOWER CHANCES THEN. NO SEVERE WEATHER
(OR EVEN THUNDER) IS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT-SUN...PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN AND WILL
EXPIRE THE OFFSHORE ADVISORY WITH THE NEXT FORECAST ISSUANCE. WILL
CARRY A SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION STATEMENT IN THE GULF STREAM
FOR THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL SETTLE
TO VICINITY GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA ON SUNDAY WHILE STRENGTHENING A
COUPLE MILLIBARS. THEREFORE...A NORTHERLY BREEZE NEAR 15 KNOTS CAN
BE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH POOR CONDITIONS OCCURRING OFFSHORE...
PARTICULARLY IN THE GULF STREAM.

MON-WED...BOATING CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE AS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE AXIS SETTLES OVER THE AREA AND PRES GRAD COLLAPSES MON. THE
TAIL END OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO PUSH SOUTH INTO THE
ADJ ATLC WATERS TUE AND PRODUCE A PERIOD OF NW-N WINDS 10- 15
KNOTS. THEN A MORE PERSISTENT E-SE FLOW SHOULD DEVELOP FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS ATLC HIGH BUILDS WEST ACROSS THE WATERS
WITH SEAS 2-3 FEET.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MINIMUM RH VALUES IN THE 20S WILL OCCUR AGAIN
SUNDAY OVER THE INTERIOR...BUT WINDS WILL BE WEAKER. NO HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE WORKWEEK WITH PRESENCE OF WEAK
WIND AND AN ONSHORE COMPONENT AT TIMES EARLY IN THE WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MAV GUIDANCE AT VERO BEACH IS 44 DEGREES SUNDAY MORNING.

RECORD LOWS FOR TOMORROW MORNING...
DAB 37 1955
MCO 39 1955
MLB 43 1983
VRB 44 2013

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  43  65  47  78 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  48  71  49  81 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  45  69  49  77 /   0   0   0   0
VRB  44  70  49  76 /   0   0   0   0
LEE  45  70  50  80 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  46  69  49  79 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  50  70  51  79 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  45  70  48  77 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LASCODY
LONG TERM....PENDERGRAST





000
FXUS62 KMLB 281348
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
948 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...NOTICEABLY COOLER AND DRIER THIS WEEKEND...
...POOR TO HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS TODAY...

TODAY/TONIGHT...COOL HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID SECTION OF
THE COUNTRY WILL SETTLE SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.
THIS WILL MAINTAIN A NORTHWEST/NORTH FLOW OF COOL/DRY AIR.  TEMPS
WILL BE NEARLY 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

SOME CIRRUS WILL CONTINUE TO SWEEP SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
SKY TODAY...BUT AS JET AXIS SAGS SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND
FLORIDA STRAITS...THE CLOUDS SHOULD THIN AND DIMINISH TONIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY-SUNDAY...PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL STEADILY EASE TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE NOSES INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.  WILL EXPIRE
THE NEAR SHORE ADVISORY WITH THE MORNING FORECAST UPDATE BUT KEEP AN
EXERCISE CAUTION STATEMENT AS SHORT PERIOD WAVES PRODUCE POOR
CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT.

AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SLIDES SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TONIGHT...IT IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN
SLIGHTLY. THIS WILL LEAD TO NORTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS GOING TO
NORTHERLY AT A SOLD 15 KNOTS ON SUNDAY.  THOUGH SEA HEIGHTS WILL
GRADUALLY FALL THROUGH THE PERIOD...CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT WILL
STILL BE QUITE POOR ON SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE GULF STREAM.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AFTER A VERY WARM MONTH...ALL AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND.  PREVIOUSLY...ONLY A FEW DAYS THIS MONTH
WERE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...3 DAYS AT DAYTONA BEACH...2 DAYS AT
ORLANDO...ONE DAY AT MELBOURNE AND VERO BEACH.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR FLAGLER
     BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-SEBASTIAN
     INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE
     TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.

&&

$$

LASCODY/PENDERGRAST




000
FXUS62 KMLB 280835
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
435 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...NOTICEABLY COOLER AND DRIER THIS WEEKEND...
...POOR TO HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS TODAY...

CURRENT...THE BACK EDGE OF THE SOLID CLOUD SHIELD WAS MOVING
QUICKLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA AND CLEARS MARTIN COUNTY
DURING THE MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER LAKE MICHIGAN RIDGES
SOUTH TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE CENTRAL U.S. TRACKS SOUTHEAST.

TODAY/TONIGHT...THE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT STEERS THE SURFACE
HIGH SOUTHEAST TO VIRGINIA...THE CAROLINAS...GEORGIA AND RIDGES OVER
FLORIDA BY SUNDAY MORNING. NORTHWEST TO NORTH FLOW ADVECTS A MUCH
DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA. HIGHS SAT RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 60S VOLUSIA AND NORTHEAST LAKE COUNTIES TO THE LOW 70S FOR
THE REST OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE SUN MORNING LOWS OF MID AND
UPPER 40S LOOK REASONABLE GIVEN THE COOL AIR ADVECTION TAKING PLACE
SINCE SAT MORNING.

SUN...HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS FORECAST TO PUSH SE AND OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW THE NW WIND FLOW TO VEER TO THE N AND NE. CONTINUED
DRY AIRMASS WILL PRODUCE CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPERATURES 8 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL RANGING FROM THE MID 60S ALONG THE VOLUSIA COAST TO THE LOWER 70S
INLAND AND TREASURE COAST. IT WILL BE BREEZY ALONG THE COAST SO NOT A GREAT
BEACH DAY. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS NEARLY OVERHEAD SUN NIGHT...LIGHT WINDS AND
CLEAR SKIES WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S...AS COLD IF NOT A DEGREE OR TWO COLDER THAN TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD PUT
PRESSURE ON THE RECORD LOW AT MELBOURNE (44/1941) AND ESPECIALLY VERO BEACH
(46/2013).

MON-FRI...THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN OF RIDGE IN THE WEST AND TROUGH
IN THE EAST WILL BREAK DOWN EARLY IN THE WEEK RESULTING IN A MORE ZONAL FLOW.
AT THE SFC...THE TAIL END OF A MUCH WEAKER FRONT WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA
TUE AND WASH OUT. THEN THE ATLC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WILL BUILD WEST OVER
THE NORTH/CENTRAL FL PENINSULA MID TO LATE WEEK. THIS WILL PRODUCE MODERATING
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS CREEPING BACK ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE MID 80S INTERIOR
AND LOW 80S COAST BY FRI. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL
APPROACH THEN CROSS FL WED INTO THU SO HAVE MAINTAINED SMALL SHOWER CHANCES THEN.
NO SEVERE WEATHER (OR EVEN THUNDER) IS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR.


&&

.MARINE...
TODAY/TONIGHT...BUOY 009 CURRENTLY RECORDING NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND
25 KNOTS AND SEAS AROUND 4 FEET. THE COMBINATION OF THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT REMAINING ABOUT THE SAME AND COOLER AIR OVERTOP RELATIVELY
WARMER WATER KEEPS SURFACE WIND SPEEDS HIGHER THAN EXPECTED THROUGH
THE MORNING. CURRENT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) OFFSHORE LOOKS GOOD.
THE NEARSHORE WATERS SCA IS SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE MID TO LATE MORNING.
WINDS MOST LIKELY AROUND 20 KNOTS BEYOND A FEW MILES OF THE COAST
THEREFORE WILL KEEP THE NEARSHORE SCA UNTIL MID LATE MORNING AND
EITHER REISSUE OR DROP THE SCA BASED ON BUOY WIND TRENDS.

GRADIENT OPENS UP ENOUGH ALLOWING THE WIND TO DROP BELOW 20 KNOTS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND BEYOND.

SUN...BOATING CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN POOR WITH NORTH WINDS 15 KNOTS
PRODUCING CHOPPY CONDITIONS BOTH ON THE ATLANTIC (ESP THE GULF STREAM)
AND THE INTRACOASTAL WATERS.

MON-WED...BOATING CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS
SETTLES OVER THE AREA AND PRES GRAD COLLAPSES MON. THE TAIL END OF A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO PUSH SOUTH INTO THE ADJ ATLC WATERS TUE
AND PRODUCE A PERIOD OF NW-N WINDS 10-15 KNOTS. THEN A MORE PERSISTENT
E-SE FLOW SHOULD DEVELOP FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS ATLC HIGH
BUILDS WEST ACROSS THE WATERS WITH SEAS 2-3 FEET.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  68  51  65  47 /   0  10   0   0
MCO  72  49  72  48 /   0  10   0   0
MLB  71  47  69  47 /   0  10   0   0
VRB  70  47  70  47 /   0  10   0   0
LEE  71  48  71  49 /   0  10   0   0
SFB  69  49  69  48 /   0  10   0   0
ORL  71  51  71  50 /   0  10   0   0
FPR  70  46  71  46 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM-
     SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD
     COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR FLAGLER
     BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-SEBASTIAN
     INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE
     TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WIMMER
LONG TERM....KELLY





000
FXUS62 KMLB 280835
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
435 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...NOTICEABLY COOLER AND DRIER THIS WEEKEND...
...POOR TO HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS TODAY...

CURRENT...THE BACK EDGE OF THE SOLID CLOUD SHIELD WAS MOVING
QUICKLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA AND CLEARS MARTIN COUNTY
DURING THE MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER LAKE MICHIGAN RIDGES
SOUTH TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE CENTRAL U.S. TRACKS SOUTHEAST.

TODAY/TONIGHT...THE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT STEERS THE SURFACE
HIGH SOUTHEAST TO VIRGINIA...THE CAROLINAS...GEORGIA AND RIDGES OVER
FLORIDA BY SUNDAY MORNING. NORTHWEST TO NORTH FLOW ADVECTS A MUCH
DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA. HIGHS SAT RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 60S VOLUSIA AND NORTHEAST LAKE COUNTIES TO THE LOW 70S FOR
THE REST OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE SUN MORNING LOWS OF MID AND
UPPER 40S LOOK REASONABLE GIVEN THE COOL AIR ADVECTION TAKING PLACE
SINCE SAT MORNING.

SUN...HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS FORECAST TO PUSH SE AND OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW THE NW WIND FLOW TO VEER TO THE N AND NE. CONTINUED
DRY AIRMASS WILL PRODUCE CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPERATURES 8 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL RANGING FROM THE MID 60S ALONG THE VOLUSIA COAST TO THE LOWER 70S
INLAND AND TREASURE COAST. IT WILL BE BREEZY ALONG THE COAST SO NOT A GREAT
BEACH DAY. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS NEARLY OVERHEAD SUN NIGHT...LIGHT WINDS AND
CLEAR SKIES WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S...AS COLD IF NOT A DEGREE OR TWO COLDER THAN TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD PUT
PRESSURE ON THE RECORD LOW AT MELBOURNE (44/1941) AND ESPECIALLY VERO BEACH
(46/2013).

MON-FRI...THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN OF RIDGE IN THE WEST AND TROUGH
IN THE EAST WILL BREAK DOWN EARLY IN THE WEEK RESULTING IN A MORE ZONAL FLOW.
AT THE SFC...THE TAIL END OF A MUCH WEAKER FRONT WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA
TUE AND WASH OUT. THEN THE ATLC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WILL BUILD WEST OVER
THE NORTH/CENTRAL FL PENINSULA MID TO LATE WEEK. THIS WILL PRODUCE MODERATING
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS CREEPING BACK ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE MID 80S INTERIOR
AND LOW 80S COAST BY FRI. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL
APPROACH THEN CROSS FL WED INTO THU SO HAVE MAINTAINED SMALL SHOWER CHANCES THEN.
NO SEVERE WEATHER (OR EVEN THUNDER) IS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR.


&&

.MARINE...
TODAY/TONIGHT...BUOY 009 CURRENTLY RECORDING NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND
25 KNOTS AND SEAS AROUND 4 FEET. THE COMBINATION OF THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT REMAINING ABOUT THE SAME AND COOLER AIR OVERTOP RELATIVELY
WARMER WATER KEEPS SURFACE WIND SPEEDS HIGHER THAN EXPECTED THROUGH
THE MORNING. CURRENT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) OFFSHORE LOOKS GOOD.
THE NEARSHORE WATERS SCA IS SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE MID TO LATE MORNING.
WINDS MOST LIKELY AROUND 20 KNOTS BEYOND A FEW MILES OF THE COAST
THEREFORE WILL KEEP THE NEARSHORE SCA UNTIL MID LATE MORNING AND
EITHER REISSUE OR DROP THE SCA BASED ON BUOY WIND TRENDS.

GRADIENT OPENS UP ENOUGH ALLOWING THE WIND TO DROP BELOW 20 KNOTS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND BEYOND.

SUN...BOATING CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN POOR WITH NORTH WINDS 15 KNOTS
PRODUCING CHOPPY CONDITIONS BOTH ON THE ATLANTIC (ESP THE GULF STREAM)
AND THE INTRACOASTAL WATERS.

MON-WED...BOATING CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS
SETTLES OVER THE AREA AND PRES GRAD COLLAPSES MON. THE TAIL END OF A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO PUSH SOUTH INTO THE ADJ ATLC WATERS TUE
AND PRODUCE A PERIOD OF NW-N WINDS 10-15 KNOTS. THEN A MORE PERSISTENT
E-SE FLOW SHOULD DEVELOP FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS ATLC HIGH
BUILDS WEST ACROSS THE WATERS WITH SEAS 2-3 FEET.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  68  51  65  47 /   0  10   0   0
MCO  72  49  72  48 /   0  10   0   0
MLB  71  47  69  47 /   0  10   0   0
VRB  70  47  70  47 /   0  10   0   0
LEE  71  48  71  49 /   0  10   0   0
SFB  69  49  69  48 /   0  10   0   0
ORL  71  51  71  50 /   0  10   0   0
FPR  70  46  71  46 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM-
     SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD
     COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR FLAGLER
     BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-SEBASTIAN
     INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE
     TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WIMMER
LONG TERM....KELLY




000
FXUS62 KMLB 280835
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
435 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...NOTICEABLY COOLER AND DRIER THIS WEEKEND...
...POOR TO HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS TODAY...

CURRENT...THE BACK EDGE OF THE SOLID CLOUD SHIELD WAS MOVING
QUICKLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA AND CLEARS MARTIN COUNTY
DURING THE MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER LAKE MICHIGAN RIDGES
SOUTH TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE CENTRAL U.S. TRACKS SOUTHEAST.

TODAY/TONIGHT...THE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT STEERS THE SURFACE
HIGH SOUTHEAST TO VIRGINIA...THE CAROLINAS...GEORGIA AND RIDGES OVER
FLORIDA BY SUNDAY MORNING. NORTHWEST TO NORTH FLOW ADVECTS A MUCH
DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA. HIGHS SAT RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 60S VOLUSIA AND NORTHEAST LAKE COUNTIES TO THE LOW 70S FOR
THE REST OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE SUN MORNING LOWS OF MID AND
UPPER 40S LOOK REASONABLE GIVEN THE COOL AIR ADVECTION TAKING PLACE
SINCE SAT MORNING.

SUN...HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS FORECAST TO PUSH SE AND OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW THE NW WIND FLOW TO VEER TO THE N AND NE. CONTINUED
DRY AIRMASS WILL PRODUCE CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPERATURES 8 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL RANGING FROM THE MID 60S ALONG THE VOLUSIA COAST TO THE LOWER 70S
INLAND AND TREASURE COAST. IT WILL BE BREEZY ALONG THE COAST SO NOT A GREAT
BEACH DAY. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS NEARLY OVERHEAD SUN NIGHT...LIGHT WINDS AND
CLEAR SKIES WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S...AS COLD IF NOT A DEGREE OR TWO COLDER THAN TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD PUT
PRESSURE ON THE RECORD LOW AT MELBOURNE (44/1941) AND ESPECIALLY VERO BEACH
(46/2013).

MON-FRI...THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN OF RIDGE IN THE WEST AND TROUGH
IN THE EAST WILL BREAK DOWN EARLY IN THE WEEK RESULTING IN A MORE ZONAL FLOW.
AT THE SFC...THE TAIL END OF A MUCH WEAKER FRONT WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA
TUE AND WASH OUT. THEN THE ATLC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WILL BUILD WEST OVER
THE NORTH/CENTRAL FL PENINSULA MID TO LATE WEEK. THIS WILL PRODUCE MODERATING
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS CREEPING BACK ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE MID 80S INTERIOR
AND LOW 80S COAST BY FRI. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL
APPROACH THEN CROSS FL WED INTO THU SO HAVE MAINTAINED SMALL SHOWER CHANCES THEN.
NO SEVERE WEATHER (OR EVEN THUNDER) IS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR.


&&

.MARINE...
TODAY/TONIGHT...BUOY 009 CURRENTLY RECORDING NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND
25 KNOTS AND SEAS AROUND 4 FEET. THE COMBINATION OF THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT REMAINING ABOUT THE SAME AND COOLER AIR OVERTOP RELATIVELY
WARMER WATER KEEPS SURFACE WIND SPEEDS HIGHER THAN EXPECTED THROUGH
THE MORNING. CURRENT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) OFFSHORE LOOKS GOOD.
THE NEARSHORE WATERS SCA IS SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE MID TO LATE MORNING.
WINDS MOST LIKELY AROUND 20 KNOTS BEYOND A FEW MILES OF THE COAST
THEREFORE WILL KEEP THE NEARSHORE SCA UNTIL MID LATE MORNING AND
EITHER REISSUE OR DROP THE SCA BASED ON BUOY WIND TRENDS.

GRADIENT OPENS UP ENOUGH ALLOWING THE WIND TO DROP BELOW 20 KNOTS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND BEYOND.

SUN...BOATING CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN POOR WITH NORTH WINDS 15 KNOTS
PRODUCING CHOPPY CONDITIONS BOTH ON THE ATLANTIC (ESP THE GULF STREAM)
AND THE INTRACOASTAL WATERS.

MON-WED...BOATING CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS
SETTLES OVER THE AREA AND PRES GRAD COLLAPSES MON. THE TAIL END OF A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO PUSH SOUTH INTO THE ADJ ATLC WATERS TUE
AND PRODUCE A PERIOD OF NW-N WINDS 10-15 KNOTS. THEN A MORE PERSISTENT
E-SE FLOW SHOULD DEVELOP FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS ATLC HIGH
BUILDS WEST ACROSS THE WATERS WITH SEAS 2-3 FEET.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  68  51  65  47 /   0  10   0   0
MCO  72  49  72  48 /   0  10   0   0
MLB  71  47  69  47 /   0  10   0   0
VRB  70  47  70  47 /   0  10   0   0
LEE  71  48  71  49 /   0  10   0   0
SFB  69  49  69  48 /   0  10   0   0
ORL  71  51  71  50 /   0  10   0   0
FPR  70  46  71  46 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM-
     SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD
     COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR FLAGLER
     BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-SEBASTIAN
     INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE
     TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WIMMER
LONG TERM....KELLY




000
FXUS62 KMLB 280025
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
825 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...TURNING NOTICEABLY COOLER AND DRIER THIS WEEKEND BEHIND A STRONG
COLD FRONT...
...HAZARDOUS TO POOR BOATING CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY...

CURRENTLY...THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS OBSERVABLE JUST NORTH OF
VOLUSIA CO ON MLB RADAR ATTM. FEATURE WILL QUICKLY SWEEP SWD OVER
ECFL BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...BRINGING A RETURN TO 50S ALONG
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTY WINDS IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE COOLER
AIRMASS SWEEPS SWD INTO THE AREA.

PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS ARE LARGELY CLUSTER OVER S FL WITH SOME
MEASURABLE LIGHT PCPN STILL POSSIBLE BEFORE MIDNIGHT FROM THE MLB
AREA SOUTH TO THE TREASURE COAST ALONG WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS
UNTIL FROPA WHEN SKY CONDS WL START AN IMPROVEMENT. WL ISSUE A
FORECAST UPDATE SHORTLY TO FRESHEN UP ELEMENTS AND LOWER PCPN
COVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
LINGERING STRATIFORM LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED
CELLS MOSTLY OVER SOUTHERN TERMINALS THROUGH 11 PM. EXPECT STEADILY
IMPROVING SKC CONDS BEHIND COLD FRONT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SFC WND
GUSTS NR 20 KTS AFTER FROPA THROUGH AROUND 10Z.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT-WEEKEND...(PREVIOUS) GUSTY NORTHWEST/NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL PROVIDE SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TONIGHT
NEAR AND BEHIND THE STRONG FRONT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOME SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN POOR FOR SMALL CRAFT INTO
SUNDAY. A BIT OF TIGHTENING IS INDICATED WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
SUNDAY SO HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS MAY REDEVELOP....ESPECIALLY IN THE
GULF STREAM.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM-
     SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD
     COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR FLAGLER BEACH
     TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-SEBASTIAN INLET TO
     JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
     SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.

&&

$$

JP/PG




000
FXUS62 KMLB 280025
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
825 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...TURNING NOTICEABLY COOLER AND DRIER THIS WEEKEND BEHIND A STRONG
COLD FRONT...
...HAZARDOUS TO POOR BOATING CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY...

CURRENTLY...THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS OBSERVABLE JUST NORTH OF
VOLUSIA CO ON MLB RADAR ATTM. FEATURE WILL QUICKLY SWEEP SWD OVER
ECFL BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...BRINGING A RETURN TO 50S ALONG
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTY WINDS IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE COOLER
AIRMASS SWEEPS SWD INTO THE AREA.

PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS ARE LARGELY CLUSTER OVER S FL WITH SOME
MEASURABLE LIGHT PCPN STILL POSSIBLE BEFORE MIDNIGHT FROM THE MLB
AREA SOUTH TO THE TREASURE COAST ALONG WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS
UNTIL FROPA WHEN SKY CONDS WL START AN IMPROVEMENT. WL ISSUE A
FORECAST UPDATE SHORTLY TO FRESHEN UP ELEMENTS AND LOWER PCPN
COVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
LINGERING STRATIFORM LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED
CELLS MOSTLY OVER SOUTHERN TERMINALS THROUGH 11 PM. EXPECT STEADILY
IMPROVING SKC CONDS BEHIND COLD FRONT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SFC WND
GUSTS NR 20 KTS AFTER FROPA THROUGH AROUND 10Z.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT-WEEKEND...(PREVIOUS) GUSTY NORTHWEST/NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL PROVIDE SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TONIGHT
NEAR AND BEHIND THE STRONG FRONT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOME SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN POOR FOR SMALL CRAFT INTO
SUNDAY. A BIT OF TIGHTENING IS INDICATED WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
SUNDAY SO HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS MAY REDEVELOP....ESPECIALLY IN THE
GULF STREAM.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM-
     SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD
     COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR FLAGLER BEACH
     TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-SEBASTIAN INLET TO
     JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
     SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.

&&

$$

JP/PG





000
FXUS62 KMLB 272046
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
308 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS INTO EARLY EVENING...
...TURNING NOTICEABLY COOLER AND DRIER THIS WEEKEND BEHIND A STRONG
COLD FRONT...
...HAZARDOUS TO POOR BOATING CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY...

CURRENTLY...HUGE AREA OF DIVERGENCE ALOFT IN RIGHT REAR QUAD OF 180
KNOT 250MB JET CORE OVER THE CAROLINAS WAS SPREADING ACROSS THE
AREA. EVEN WITH MODEST HEATING AT BEST...CELLS WERE FIRING AND
INCREASING IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY. ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

TONIGHT...A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CLEAR OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES IN THE EVENING. LATEST HRRR MODEL PUSHES THE PRE FRONTAL
BAND OF SHOWERS/STORMS OFF THE TREASURE COAST BY 02Z. WEST WINDS
IN THE EVENING WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND ADVECT A COOLER AND
MUCH DRIER AIR MASS INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA AFTER MIDNIGHT. SATURDAY
MORNING LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 50S LOOK REASONABLE.

SAT-MON NIGHT...(PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)

AS OPPOSED TO TURNING EWD OR PIVOTING NE...THE ERN CONUS H50
TROUGH ACTUALLY AMPLIFIES A BIT ESEWD WHICH WILL DRIVE THE CENTER
OF THE LARGE COOL SFC HIGH ACROSS THE BREADTH OF THE CTRL CONUS
SEWD RATHER THAN EAST INTO THE ATLC. CONSEQUENTLY....INSTEAD OF
THE POST-FRONTAL NW TO NORTH WINDS VEERING ONSHORE AND MAINTAINING
SOME STRENGTH...THE SFC FLOW WILL VEER AND THEN COLLAPSE AS THE
HIGH SETTLES SWD OVER FL THROUGH SUN NIGHT. THIS IN TURN RESULTS
IN AN UNUSUALLY PROTRACTED SPELL OF DRY AND RELATIVELY COOL WX
INTO MONDAY. WEEKEND MAXES WILL BY IN THE U60S TO L-M70S WITH MINS
IN THE M-U40S SAT NIGHT AND U40S TO L50S SUN NIGHT...SLIGHT
MODERATION CONTINUES THROUGH MON...L-M70S AND M50S NORTH TO L60S
S/E MON NIGHT.

TUE-FRI...(PREVIOUS DISCUSSION) HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WEAKENS AND
SLIDES EWD INTO TUE AS A VERY WEAK "BACKDOOR" FRONTAL BDRY SAGS
INTO NORTH FL...BUT DAMPENS OUT BEFORE REACHING THE AREA. SFC
RIDGE BUILDS BACK WWD AND A BIT NWD FROM THE ATLC WED-THU WITH
WARMING TEMPS. WHILE THERE IS SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE...NOT SURE
IF THERE WILL BE APPRECIABLE RAIN CHCS THROUGH MID WEEK.
HOWEVER...KEPT IN THE SLGT CHC FOR SHRA FOR THU TO MAINTAIN
LOCAL/REGIONAL CONTINUITY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE
REGION. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STRONG WINDS OVER 40 KNOTS AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON THEN EXPECT
LINGERING STRATIFORM RAIN WITH A FEW EMBEDDED CELLS INTO EVENING
(ESPECIALLY KTIX-KSUA). IT WILL CLEAR OUT BEHIND COLD FRONT
EVERYWHERE AFTER 06Z EXCEPT FOR SOME LINGERING CIRRUS.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT-WEEKEND...GUSTY NORTHWEST/NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
PROVIDE SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TONIGHT BEHIND THE
FRONT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOME SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN POOR FOR SMALL CRAFT INTO SUNDAY. A BIT OF TIGHTENING
IS INDICATED WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SUNDAY SO HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS MAY REDEVELOP....ESPECIALLY IN THE GULF STREAM.

MON-WED...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SETTLE OVER THE WATERS
AND PROVIDE GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS MON. THE AXIS WILL BECOME
REPOSITIONED SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD BY MID WEEK AND RESULT IN AN
ONSHORE WIND FLOW BUT SPEEDS LOOK TO BE 10-12 KNOTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  50  69  51  65 /  20   0   0   0
MCO  54  71  49  72 /  20   0   0   0
MLB  51  71  49  70 /  30   0   0   0
VRB  53  71  45  72 /  30   0   0   0
LEE  52  72  48  70 /  10   0   0   0
SFB  51  72  49  70 /  20   0   0   0
ORL  54  72  51  70 /  20   0   0   0
FPR  56  71  46  71 /  30   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM-
     SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD
     COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR FLAGLER BEACH
     TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-SEBASTIAN INLET TO
     JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
     SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...LASCODY
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...JOHNSON
RADAR WATCH...........CRISTALDI





000
FXUS62 KMLB 272046
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
308 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS INTO EARLY EVENING...
...TURNING NOTICEABLY COOLER AND DRIER THIS WEEKEND BEHIND A STRONG
COLD FRONT...
...HAZARDOUS TO POOR BOATING CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY...

CURRENTLY...HUGE AREA OF DIVERGENCE ALOFT IN RIGHT REAR QUAD OF 180
KNOT 250MB JET CORE OVER THE CAROLINAS WAS SPREADING ACROSS THE
AREA. EVEN WITH MODEST HEATING AT BEST...CELLS WERE FIRING AND
INCREASING IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY. ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

TONIGHT...A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CLEAR OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES IN THE EVENING. LATEST HRRR MODEL PUSHES THE PRE FRONTAL
BAND OF SHOWERS/STORMS OFF THE TREASURE COAST BY 02Z. WEST WINDS
IN THE EVENING WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND ADVECT A COOLER AND
MUCH DRIER AIR MASS INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA AFTER MIDNIGHT. SATURDAY
MORNING LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 50S LOOK REASONABLE.

SAT-MON NIGHT...(PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)

AS OPPOSED TO TURNING EWD OR PIVOTING NE...THE ERN CONUS H50
TROUGH ACTUALLY AMPLIFIES A BIT ESEWD WHICH WILL DRIVE THE CENTER
OF THE LARGE COOL SFC HIGH ACROSS THE BREADTH OF THE CTRL CONUS
SEWD RATHER THAN EAST INTO THE ATLC. CONSEQUENTLY....INSTEAD OF
THE POST-FRONTAL NW TO NORTH WINDS VEERING ONSHORE AND MAINTAINING
SOME STRENGTH...THE SFC FLOW WILL VEER AND THEN COLLAPSE AS THE
HIGH SETTLES SWD OVER FL THROUGH SUN NIGHT. THIS IN TURN RESULTS
IN AN UNUSUALLY PROTRACTED SPELL OF DRY AND RELATIVELY COOL WX
INTO MONDAY. WEEKEND MAXES WILL BY IN THE U60S TO L-M70S WITH MINS
IN THE M-U40S SAT NIGHT AND U40S TO L50S SUN NIGHT...SLIGHT
MODERATION CONTINUES THROUGH MON...L-M70S AND M50S NORTH TO L60S
S/E MON NIGHT.

TUE-FRI...(PREVIOUS DISCUSSION) HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WEAKENS AND
SLIDES EWD INTO TUE AS A VERY WEAK "BACKDOOR" FRONTAL BDRY SAGS
INTO NORTH FL...BUT DAMPENS OUT BEFORE REACHING THE AREA. SFC
RIDGE BUILDS BACK WWD AND A BIT NWD FROM THE ATLC WED-THU WITH
WARMING TEMPS. WHILE THERE IS SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE...NOT SURE
IF THERE WILL BE APPRECIABLE RAIN CHCS THROUGH MID WEEK.
HOWEVER...KEPT IN THE SLGT CHC FOR SHRA FOR THU TO MAINTAIN
LOCAL/REGIONAL CONTINUITY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE
REGION. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STRONG WINDS OVER 40 KNOTS AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON THEN EXPECT
LINGERING STRATIFORM RAIN WITH A FEW EMBEDDED CELLS INTO EVENING
(ESPECIALLY KTIX-KSUA). IT WILL CLEAR OUT BEHIND COLD FRONT
EVERYWHERE AFTER 06Z EXCEPT FOR SOME LINGERING CIRRUS.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT-WEEKEND...GUSTY NORTHWEST/NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
PROVIDE SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TONIGHT BEHIND THE
FRONT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOME SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN POOR FOR SMALL CRAFT INTO SUNDAY. A BIT OF TIGHTENING
IS INDICATED WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SUNDAY SO HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS MAY REDEVELOP....ESPECIALLY IN THE GULF STREAM.

MON-WED...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SETTLE OVER THE WATERS
AND PROVIDE GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS MON. THE AXIS WILL BECOME
REPOSITIONED SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD BY MID WEEK AND RESULT IN AN
ONSHORE WIND FLOW BUT SPEEDS LOOK TO BE 10-12 KNOTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  50  69  51  65 /  20   0   0   0
MCO  54  71  49  72 /  20   0   0   0
MLB  51  71  49  70 /  30   0   0   0
VRB  53  71  45  72 /  30   0   0   0
LEE  52  72  48  70 /  10   0   0   0
SFB  51  72  49  70 /  20   0   0   0
ORL  54  72  51  70 /  20   0   0   0
FPR  56  71  46  71 /  30   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM-
     SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD
     COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR FLAGLER BEACH
     TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-SEBASTIAN INLET TO
     JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
     SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...LASCODY
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...JOHNSON
RADAR WATCH...........CRISTALDI




000
FXUS62 KMLB 272046
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
308 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS INTO EARLY EVENING...
...TURNING NOTICEABLY COOLER AND DRIER THIS WEEKEND BEHIND A STRONG
COLD FRONT...
...HAZARDOUS TO POOR BOATING CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY...

CURRENTLY...HUGE AREA OF DIVERGENCE ALOFT IN RIGHT REAR QUAD OF 180
KNOT 250MB JET CORE OVER THE CAROLINAS WAS SPREADING ACROSS THE
AREA. EVEN WITH MODEST HEATING AT BEST...CELLS WERE FIRING AND
INCREASING IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY. ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

TONIGHT...A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CLEAR OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES IN THE EVENING. LATEST HRRR MODEL PUSHES THE PRE FRONTAL
BAND OF SHOWERS/STORMS OFF THE TREASURE COAST BY 02Z. WEST WINDS
IN THE EVENING WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND ADVECT A COOLER AND
MUCH DRIER AIR MASS INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA AFTER MIDNIGHT. SATURDAY
MORNING LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 50S LOOK REASONABLE.

SAT-MON NIGHT...(PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)

AS OPPOSED TO TURNING EWD OR PIVOTING NE...THE ERN CONUS H50
TROUGH ACTUALLY AMPLIFIES A BIT ESEWD WHICH WILL DRIVE THE CENTER
OF THE LARGE COOL SFC HIGH ACROSS THE BREADTH OF THE CTRL CONUS
SEWD RATHER THAN EAST INTO THE ATLC. CONSEQUENTLY....INSTEAD OF
THE POST-FRONTAL NW TO NORTH WINDS VEERING ONSHORE AND MAINTAINING
SOME STRENGTH...THE SFC FLOW WILL VEER AND THEN COLLAPSE AS THE
HIGH SETTLES SWD OVER FL THROUGH SUN NIGHT. THIS IN TURN RESULTS
IN AN UNUSUALLY PROTRACTED SPELL OF DRY AND RELATIVELY COOL WX
INTO MONDAY. WEEKEND MAXES WILL BY IN THE U60S TO L-M70S WITH MINS
IN THE M-U40S SAT NIGHT AND U40S TO L50S SUN NIGHT...SLIGHT
MODERATION CONTINUES THROUGH MON...L-M70S AND M50S NORTH TO L60S
S/E MON NIGHT.

TUE-FRI...(PREVIOUS DISCUSSION) HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WEAKENS AND
SLIDES EWD INTO TUE AS A VERY WEAK "BACKDOOR" FRONTAL BDRY SAGS
INTO NORTH FL...BUT DAMPENS OUT BEFORE REACHING THE AREA. SFC
RIDGE BUILDS BACK WWD AND A BIT NWD FROM THE ATLC WED-THU WITH
WARMING TEMPS. WHILE THERE IS SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE...NOT SURE
IF THERE WILL BE APPRECIABLE RAIN CHCS THROUGH MID WEEK.
HOWEVER...KEPT IN THE SLGT CHC FOR SHRA FOR THU TO MAINTAIN
LOCAL/REGIONAL CONTINUITY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE
REGION. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STRONG WINDS OVER 40 KNOTS AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON THEN EXPECT
LINGERING STRATIFORM RAIN WITH A FEW EMBEDDED CELLS INTO EVENING
(ESPECIALLY KTIX-KSUA). IT WILL CLEAR OUT BEHIND COLD FRONT
EVERYWHERE AFTER 06Z EXCEPT FOR SOME LINGERING CIRRUS.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT-WEEKEND...GUSTY NORTHWEST/NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
PROVIDE SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TONIGHT BEHIND THE
FRONT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOME SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN POOR FOR SMALL CRAFT INTO SUNDAY. A BIT OF TIGHTENING
IS INDICATED WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SUNDAY SO HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS MAY REDEVELOP....ESPECIALLY IN THE GULF STREAM.

MON-WED...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SETTLE OVER THE WATERS
AND PROVIDE GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS MON. THE AXIS WILL BECOME
REPOSITIONED SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD BY MID WEEK AND RESULT IN AN
ONSHORE WIND FLOW BUT SPEEDS LOOK TO BE 10-12 KNOTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  50  69  51  65 /  20   0   0   0
MCO  54  71  49  72 /  20   0   0   0
MLB  51  71  49  70 /  30   0   0   0
VRB  53  71  45  72 /  30   0   0   0
LEE  52  72  48  70 /  10   0   0   0
SFB  51  72  49  70 /  20   0   0   0
ORL  54  72  51  70 /  20   0   0   0
FPR  56  71  46  71 /  30   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM-
     SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD
     COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR FLAGLER BEACH
     TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-SEBASTIAN INLET TO
     JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
     SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...LASCODY
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...JOHNSON
RADAR WATCH...........CRISTALDI




000
FXUS62 KMLB 272046
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
308 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS INTO EARLY EVENING...
...TURNING NOTICEABLY COOLER AND DRIER THIS WEEKEND BEHIND A STRONG
COLD FRONT...
...HAZARDOUS TO POOR BOATING CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY...

CURRENTLY...HUGE AREA OF DIVERGENCE ALOFT IN RIGHT REAR QUAD OF 180
KNOT 250MB JET CORE OVER THE CAROLINAS WAS SPREADING ACROSS THE
AREA. EVEN WITH MODEST HEATING AT BEST...CELLS WERE FIRING AND
INCREASING IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY. ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

TONIGHT...A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CLEAR OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES IN THE EVENING. LATEST HRRR MODEL PUSHES THE PRE FRONTAL
BAND OF SHOWERS/STORMS OFF THE TREASURE COAST BY 02Z. WEST WINDS
IN THE EVENING WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND ADVECT A COOLER AND
MUCH DRIER AIR MASS INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA AFTER MIDNIGHT. SATURDAY
MORNING LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 50S LOOK REASONABLE.

SAT-MON NIGHT...(PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)

AS OPPOSED TO TURNING EWD OR PIVOTING NE...THE ERN CONUS H50
TROUGH ACTUALLY AMPLIFIES A BIT ESEWD WHICH WILL DRIVE THE CENTER
OF THE LARGE COOL SFC HIGH ACROSS THE BREADTH OF THE CTRL CONUS
SEWD RATHER THAN EAST INTO THE ATLC. CONSEQUENTLY....INSTEAD OF
THE POST-FRONTAL NW TO NORTH WINDS VEERING ONSHORE AND MAINTAINING
SOME STRENGTH...THE SFC FLOW WILL VEER AND THEN COLLAPSE AS THE
HIGH SETTLES SWD OVER FL THROUGH SUN NIGHT. THIS IN TURN RESULTS
IN AN UNUSUALLY PROTRACTED SPELL OF DRY AND RELATIVELY COOL WX
INTO MONDAY. WEEKEND MAXES WILL BY IN THE U60S TO L-M70S WITH MINS
IN THE M-U40S SAT NIGHT AND U40S TO L50S SUN NIGHT...SLIGHT
MODERATION CONTINUES THROUGH MON...L-M70S AND M50S NORTH TO L60S
S/E MON NIGHT.

TUE-FRI...(PREVIOUS DISCUSSION) HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WEAKENS AND
SLIDES EWD INTO TUE AS A VERY WEAK "BACKDOOR" FRONTAL BDRY SAGS
INTO NORTH FL...BUT DAMPENS OUT BEFORE REACHING THE AREA. SFC
RIDGE BUILDS BACK WWD AND A BIT NWD FROM THE ATLC WED-THU WITH
WARMING TEMPS. WHILE THERE IS SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE...NOT SURE
IF THERE WILL BE APPRECIABLE RAIN CHCS THROUGH MID WEEK.
HOWEVER...KEPT IN THE SLGT CHC FOR SHRA FOR THU TO MAINTAIN
LOCAL/REGIONAL CONTINUITY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE
REGION. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STRONG WINDS OVER 40 KNOTS AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON THEN EXPECT
LINGERING STRATIFORM RAIN WITH A FEW EMBEDDED CELLS INTO EVENING
(ESPECIALLY KTIX-KSUA). IT WILL CLEAR OUT BEHIND COLD FRONT
EVERYWHERE AFTER 06Z EXCEPT FOR SOME LINGERING CIRRUS.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT-WEEKEND...GUSTY NORTHWEST/NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
PROVIDE SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TONIGHT BEHIND THE
FRONT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOME SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN POOR FOR SMALL CRAFT INTO SUNDAY. A BIT OF TIGHTENING
IS INDICATED WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SUNDAY SO HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS MAY REDEVELOP....ESPECIALLY IN THE GULF STREAM.

MON-WED...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SETTLE OVER THE WATERS
AND PROVIDE GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS MON. THE AXIS WILL BECOME
REPOSITIONED SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD BY MID WEEK AND RESULT IN AN
ONSHORE WIND FLOW BUT SPEEDS LOOK TO BE 10-12 KNOTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  50  69  51  65 /  20   0   0   0
MCO  54  71  49  72 /  20   0   0   0
MLB  51  71  49  70 /  30   0   0   0
VRB  53  71  45  72 /  30   0   0   0
LEE  52  72  48  70 /  10   0   0   0
SFB  51  72  49  70 /  20   0   0   0
ORL  54  72  51  70 /  20   0   0   0
FPR  56  71  46  71 /  30   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM-
     SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD
     COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR FLAGLER BEACH
     TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-SEBASTIAN INLET TO
     JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
     SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...LASCODY
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...JOHNSON
RADAR WATCH...........CRISTALDI





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