Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS62 KMLB 290844
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
444 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...A CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAIN SUNDAY AND MONDAY...

TODAY/TONIGHT...E/SE FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION AND IS
FORECAST TO GRADUALLY INCREASE TONIGHT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
TO THE NORTH AND ERIKA AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WNW ACROSS EASTERN CUBA
AND INTO THE FL STRAITS (IF IT CAN SURVIVE ITS INTERACTION WITH
LAND). THIS FLOW WILL LEAD TO GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
OVER THE INTERIOR WITH SOME MODELS INDICATING BOUNDARY COLLISIONS
TOWARD LAKE COUNTY LATE AFT/SUNSET. ELEVATED S/SW UPPER LEVEL WINDS
SHOULD ONCE AGAIN TRANSPORT DEBRIS CLOUDS AND AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN
BACK TOWARD THE COAST...ESPECIALLY TOWARD NRN BREVARD/VOLUSIA
COUNTIES. HAVE POPS RANGING FROM 40 PERCENT ALONG THE COAST FROM
CAPE SOUTHWARD UP TO 60 PERCENT FROM I-4 CORRIDOR WESTWARD. ENOUGH
DAYTIME HEATING IS EXPECTED FOR HIGHS TO REACH THE LOW 90S OVER THE
INTERIOR AND UPPER 80S/90 DEG ALONG THE COAST.

INCREASING LOW LVL SE FLOW AND MOISTURE INTO LATE TONIGHT WILL
KEEP A CHANCE FOR ONSHORE MOVING SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE
COAST OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE CAPE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INLAND BUT A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS
MAY STILL REACH THE INTERIOR COUNTIES. ONSHORE WINDS ALONG THE
COAST SHOULD KEEP LOWS IN THE UPPER 70S/NEAR 80 DEG IN SOME SPOTS
WITH MID 70S EXPECTED INLAND.

SUN-MON...GFS AND ECMWF REMAIN AGREEABLE WITH A DAMPENED VERSION OF
ERIKA TRAVELING NW TOWARD THE FL KEYS SUN AND THEN SITUATED N OF
THE KEYS LATER IN THE DAY...ON ITS WAY INTO THE E GULF FOR MON.
EACH STRUGGLES TO HOLD ON TO THE FEATURE. OFFICIAL FORECAST STILL
HOLDS ON TO IT FOR NOW AND TURNS IT TOWARD THE N TOWARD APALACHEE
BAY. WHETHER OPENED OR CLOSED... INCREASED CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAIN
WILL BE THE LOCAL CONCERN AS TROPICAL MOISTURE LIFTS WITH THE
SYSTEM AND COASTAL CONVERGENCE FURTHER ACCENTUATES OPPORTUNITY
WITH INCREASING E TO SE MARITIME WINDS. CONSEQUENTLY...THERE IS A
SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAIN STARTING ALONG THE TREASURE COAST
SUN INTO MON AND SPREADING N AND INLAND AS THE LOCAL ENVIRONMENT
FEELS THE INFLUENCES OF ERIKA. QPF PROBABILITIES BEAR THIS OUT.
THE EXTENT OF THE THREAT STILL DEPENDS ON THE ACTUAL TRACK AND
ORGANIZATION OF ERIKA. A WEAKER SYSTEM MOVING LEFT OF TRACK WILL
DIAL DOWN CONCERNS. RAIN CHANCES WELL ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE
PERIOD.

TUE-FRI...ERIKA FORECAST TO MOVE N THRU THE E GULF OF MEXICO WILL
HAVE MODULATING PERIPHERAL EFFECTS ON IT E FLANK ACROSS THE CENTRAL
FL PENINSULA. GFS AND ECMFW DON`T REALLY KNOW WHAT TO DO WITH THE
SYSTEM UPON REACHING THE PANHANDLE MID-WEEK AND SO WARRANTS
MONITORING. SE LOW LVL WINDS SHOULD ALLOW DAILY CONVECTION TO
TRANSITION INLAND MORE READILY. WILL RETURN POPS CLOSER TO NORMAL
BUT RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND MID-LVL ADJUSTMENTS TO THE STEERING FLOW
FROM ERIKA MAY OFFER CONVERGING CLUSTERS OF STORMS AWAY FROM
SITUATIONAL CLIMO. MAX TEMPS IN UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. MIN TEMPS IN
THE MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...PATCHY GROUND FOG MAY PRODUCE TEMPO IFR/MVFR CONDS AT
SOME TAF SITES EARLY THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY KVRB-KSUA. OTHERWISE
VFR THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND THEN INCREASING SHOWERS AND STORMS
PRODUCING TEMPO IFR/MVFR REDUCTIONS MAINLY ACROSS INTERIOR TAF SITES
INTO MID TO LATE AFT.

LINGERING AREAS OF RAIN/STORMS INTO THE EVENING SHOULD DIMINISH BY
MIDNIGHT...BUT AN INCREASING MOIST SE FLOW WILL LEAD TO ISO-SCT SHRA
AND ISO TSRA OVER THE WATERS THAT WILL BE ABLE TO PUSH ONSHORE
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY/TONIGHT...E/SE WINDS AROUND 5-10 KNOTS OVER THE WATERS TODAY
WILL INCREASE INTO TONIGHT AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND ERIKA NEARING THE FL STRAITS. AMOUNT
OF WIND INCREASE MAY DEPEND ON STRENGTH OF ERIKA AT THE TIME (IF IT
SURVIVES INTERACTION WITH CUBA). HOWEVER WILL LEAN TOWARD THE GFS
WHICH KEEPS THE SYSTEM WEAK WITH WINDS UP TO 15-20 KNOTS OFFSHORE
FROM CAPE SOUTHWARD AFTER MIDNIGHT.

BUOY OBS INDICATE THE NWPS/WNAWAVE GUIDANCE IS ABOUT A FOOT TOO HIGH
FOR SEAS OFFSHORE. HAVE THEREFORE TRENDED DOWN A BIT ON WAVE HEIGHTS
INITIALLY. SEAS INITIALLY FORECAST 2-3 FEET THIS MORNING AND THEN
SWELLS/WIND DRIVEN WAVES WILL COMBINE TO GRADUALLY BUILD SEAS UP TO
6 FEET OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT.

E/SE MARITIME FLOW INCREASES SUN/MON AS ERIKA DRAWS NEARER TO THE
SW PENINSULA. INCREASE IN FLOW WILL PROMOTE AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN
WITH EMBEDDED STORMS WHICH WILL SUBSTANTIALLY DROP LOCAL
VISIBILITIES AT TIMES ACROSS THE WATERS S OF THE CAPE. WINDS 15 TO
20 KNOTS SUN WITH SEAS TO 6 FT THERE. WINDS WILL RELAX A LITTLE
GOING INTO MON BUT SEAS WILL BE A LITTLE SLOWER TO SLACKEN AS
SMALL CRAFT WILL BE URGED TO EXERCISE CAUTION THRU MON. WINDS TO
15 KNOTS NORTH OF THE CAPE BUT WITH THE SAME 6 FT SEAS.

BOATING CONDITIONS MORE ACCEPTABLE BY MID-WEEK WITH SE WINDS 10
KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS 2-3 FT NEARSHORE AND 3-4 FT OFFSHORE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  88  77  86  76 /  60  30  70  60
MCO  92  76  89  75 /  60  30  70  50
MLB  89  78  87  77 /  40  30  80  60
VRB  90  78  88  77 /  40  40  80  60
LEE  92  76  92  75 /  60  30  70  40
SFB  91  76  88  75 /  60  30  70  50
ORL  92  76  88  75 /  60  30  70  50
FPR  90  78  89  77 /  40  40  80  60

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM....DS





000
FXUS62 KMLB 290102
AFDMLB

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
901 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
LIGHT SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH DEBRIS FROM EARLIER CONVECTION
ARE IN THE PROCESS OF DISSIPATING OVER THE TREASURE COAST AND WEST
OF INTERSTATE FOUR. DEPARTURE OF PCPN OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HRS WL
LEAVE A STABILIZED ENVIRONMENT OVER LAND AREAS WITH THE POTENTIAL OF
SOME ISOLD THUNDER DEVELOPING OVER THE RELATIVELY WARMER MARINE
AREAS INCLUDING THE GULF STREAM OVERNIGHT. WL UPDATE THE FORECAST
LATER AFTER ISSUANCE OF THE 11 PM ADVISORY ON ERIKA.

&&

.AVIATION...
GENERALLY VFR OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS OUT OF THE SE/E TO
CALM ELSEWHERE.

&&

.MARINE...
(PREV DISC) LIGHT E/SE FLOW CONTINUES OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS
FRESHENING DURING THE DAY TOMORROW AS ERIKA PASSES SOUTH OF THE
BAHAMAS. SEAS REMAIN 2 - 3 FEET BEFORE INCREASING UP TO 4 FEET
SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN A BUILDING EASTERLY SWELL.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

JP/MB/PB





000
FXUS62 KMLB 290102
AFDMLB

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
901 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
LIGHT SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH DEBRIS FROM EARLIER CONVECTION
ARE IN THE PROCESS OF DISSIPATING OVER THE TREASURE COAST AND WEST
OF INTERSTATE FOUR. DEPARTURE OF PCPN OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HRS WL
LEAVE A STABILIZED ENVIRONMENT OVER LAND AREAS WITH THE POTENTIAL OF
SOME ISOLD THUNDER DEVELOPING OVER THE RELATIVELY WARMER MARINE
AREAS INCLUDING THE GULF STREAM OVERNIGHT. WL UPDATE THE FORECAST
LATER AFTER ISSUANCE OF THE 11 PM ADVISORY ON ERIKA.

&&

.AVIATION...
GENERALLY VFR OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS OUT OF THE SE/E TO
CALM ELSEWHERE.

&&

.MARINE...
(PREV DISC) LIGHT E/SE FLOW CONTINUES OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS
FRESHENING DURING THE DAY TOMORROW AS ERIKA PASSES SOUTH OF THE
BAHAMAS. SEAS REMAIN 2 - 3 FEET BEFORE INCREASING UP TO 4 FEET
SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN A BUILDING EASTERLY SWELL.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

JP/MB/PB




000
FXUS62 KMLB 290102
AFDMLB

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
901 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
LIGHT SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH DEBRIS FROM EARLIER CONVECTION
ARE IN THE PROCESS OF DISSIPATING OVER THE TREASURE COAST AND WEST
OF INTERSTATE FOUR. DEPARTURE OF PCPN OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HRS WL
LEAVE A STABILIZED ENVIRONMENT OVER LAND AREAS WITH THE POTENTIAL OF
SOME ISOLD THUNDER DEVELOPING OVER THE RELATIVELY WARMER MARINE
AREAS INCLUDING THE GULF STREAM OVERNIGHT. WL UPDATE THE FORECAST
LATER AFTER ISSUANCE OF THE 11 PM ADVISORY ON ERIKA.

&&

.AVIATION...
GENERALLY VFR OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS OUT OF THE SE/E TO
CALM ELSEWHERE.

&&

.MARINE...
(PREV DISC) LIGHT E/SE FLOW CONTINUES OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS
FRESHENING DURING THE DAY TOMORROW AS ERIKA PASSES SOUTH OF THE
BAHAMAS. SEAS REMAIN 2 - 3 FEET BEFORE INCREASING UP TO 4 FEET
SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN A BUILDING EASTERLY SWELL.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

JP/MB/PB





000
FXUS62 KMLB 281923
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
323 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION WORKING ITS WAY NORTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL WATCH FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE INTERIOR WHERE AMPLE SOLAR INSOLATION SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO
SOME MORE INTENSE CELLS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS UP TO 45 MPH...AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS REMAIN
THE PRIMARY THREATS. EXPECT CONVECTION TO GENERALLY PEAK OUT
BEFORE SUNSET...LEAVING ONLY ANVIL/DEBRIS RAIN THROUGH THE LATE
EVENING.

SATURDAY...SURFACE FLOW VEERS A BIT FURTHER ON SATURDAY ALLOWING
FOR A QUICK INLAND PENETRATION OF THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE. EXPECT
AFTERNOON CONVECTION TO FOCUS MORE ACROSS THE INTERIOR...HOWEVER...
MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SO DEBRIS
RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH BACK TOWARDS THE COAST.

SUNDAY...(MODIFIED PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)...WELL SOUTH OF THE
AREA...GFS HAS TAKEN A MORE DAMPENED VIEW OF ERIKA AND PULLS THE
SYSTEM TOWARD THE KEYS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF IS HAPPY TO
AGREE. CONSIDERING RUN TO RUN VARIABILITIES...THE FORECAST
REMAINS CHALLENGING FOR ERIKA RELATIVE TO THE PENINSULA.
CONSEQUENTLY...THE LOCAL FORECAST WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON THE
OFFICIAL HURRICANE CENTER FORECAST. A WEAKER ERIKA WOULD DIRECT
THE SYSTEM TOWARD THE KEYS...WHILE A SLIGHTLY STRONGER ERIKA WOULD
BRING IT A BIT MORE NORTH. MUCH WILL DEPEND ON ITS
ORGANIZATION/STRENGTH AS IT MOVES NORTH OF HISPANIOLA...BUT IT
WILL NOT HAVE MUCH TIME TO RECOVER. THE EARLIEST IN WHICH LOCAL
IMPACTS MIGHT BE FELT FROM ERIKA IS SUN AFTERNOON FOR THE TREASURE
COAST AND COUNTIES BORDERING LAKE OKEECHOBEE. ABOVE NORMAL POPS
MOST PLACES WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS.

MON-THU...FORECAST REMAINS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON EVENTUAL TRACK OF
ERIKA. A MORE WESTERN TRACK MAY MAKE FOR A GREATER RAINFALL
CONCERN WITH DEEPER S-N INLAND PENETRATION...WITH A SOLUTION MORE
EAST A GREATER CONCERN FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND ADJACENT WATERS
SINCE THIS WOULD SIGNAL A STRONGER ERIKA. CURRENT OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS FAVORING A TREND TO THE WEST AND ON THE DAMPENED SIDE
(AT THIS TIME).


&&

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED TSRA/SHRA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS
WITH A FOCUS ON INLAND TERMINAL SITES. COASTAL SITES WILL SEE LESS
COVERAGE AND HIGHER CEILINGS...THOUGH SOME DEBRIS RAIN WILL LIKELY
BE CARRIED OVERHEAD THESE SITES THROUGH SUNSET. GENERALLY VFR
OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS OUT OF THE SE/E.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT/SATURDAY...E/SE FLOW CONTINUES OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS
FRESHENING DURING THE DAY TOMORROW AS ERIKA PASSES SOUTH OF THE
BAHAMAS. SEAS REMAIN 2 - 3 FEET BEFORE INCREASING UP TO 4 FEET
SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN A BUILDING EASTERLY SWELL.

SUNDAY/WEDNESDAY...FORECAST REMAINS DEPENDENT ON THE EVENTUAL
TRACK AND INTENSITY OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA. INCREASING
EASTERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND BUILDING SEAS ARE ADVERTISED
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH DETERIORATING MARINE CONDITIONS
ANTICIPATED. PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND
UPDATES CONCERNING ERIKA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  74  89  77  88 /  20  50  30  70
MCO  74  92  76  90 /  20  50  20  70
MLB  76  90  79  88 /  20  40  30  70
VRB  75  89  77  88 /  20  40  30  70
LEE  75  92  76  92 /  20  50  20  70
SFB  74  92  76  91 /  20  50  20  70
ORL  75  92  77  90 /  20  50  20  70
FPR  75  89  78  89 /  20  40  30  70

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

FORECASTS...ULRICH
IMPACT WEATHER/RADAR....LASCODY
AVIATION...SEDLOCK





000
FXUS62 KMLB 281923
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
323 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION WORKING ITS WAY NORTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL WATCH FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE INTERIOR WHERE AMPLE SOLAR INSOLATION SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO
SOME MORE INTENSE CELLS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS UP TO 45 MPH...AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS REMAIN
THE PRIMARY THREATS. EXPECT CONVECTION TO GENERALLY PEAK OUT
BEFORE SUNSET...LEAVING ONLY ANVIL/DEBRIS RAIN THROUGH THE LATE
EVENING.

SATURDAY...SURFACE FLOW VEERS A BIT FURTHER ON SATURDAY ALLOWING
FOR A QUICK INLAND PENETRATION OF THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE. EXPECT
AFTERNOON CONVECTION TO FOCUS MORE ACROSS THE INTERIOR...HOWEVER...
MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SO DEBRIS
RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH BACK TOWARDS THE COAST.

SUNDAY...(MODIFIED PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)...WELL SOUTH OF THE
AREA...GFS HAS TAKEN A MORE DAMPENED VIEW OF ERIKA AND PULLS THE
SYSTEM TOWARD THE KEYS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF IS HAPPY TO
AGREE. CONSIDERING RUN TO RUN VARIABILITIES...THE FORECAST
REMAINS CHALLENGING FOR ERIKA RELATIVE TO THE PENINSULA.
CONSEQUENTLY...THE LOCAL FORECAST WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON THE
OFFICIAL HURRICANE CENTER FORECAST. A WEAKER ERIKA WOULD DIRECT
THE SYSTEM TOWARD THE KEYS...WHILE A SLIGHTLY STRONGER ERIKA WOULD
BRING IT A BIT MORE NORTH. MUCH WILL DEPEND ON ITS
ORGANIZATION/STRENGTH AS IT MOVES NORTH OF HISPANIOLA...BUT IT
WILL NOT HAVE MUCH TIME TO RECOVER. THE EARLIEST IN WHICH LOCAL
IMPACTS MIGHT BE FELT FROM ERIKA IS SUN AFTERNOON FOR THE TREASURE
COAST AND COUNTIES BORDERING LAKE OKEECHOBEE. ABOVE NORMAL POPS
MOST PLACES WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS.

MON-THU...FORECAST REMAINS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON EVENTUAL TRACK OF
ERIKA. A MORE WESTERN TRACK MAY MAKE FOR A GREATER RAINFALL
CONCERN WITH DEEPER S-N INLAND PENETRATION...WITH A SOLUTION MORE
EAST A GREATER CONCERN FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND ADJACENT WATERS
SINCE THIS WOULD SIGNAL A STRONGER ERIKA. CURRENT OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS FAVORING A TREND TO THE WEST AND ON THE DAMPENED SIDE
(AT THIS TIME).


&&

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED TSRA/SHRA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS
WITH A FOCUS ON INLAND TERMINAL SITES. COASTAL SITES WILL SEE LESS
COVERAGE AND HIGHER CEILINGS...THOUGH SOME DEBRIS RAIN WILL LIKELY
BE CARRIED OVERHEAD THESE SITES THROUGH SUNSET. GENERALLY VFR
OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS OUT OF THE SE/E.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT/SATURDAY...E/SE FLOW CONTINUES OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS
FRESHENING DURING THE DAY TOMORROW AS ERIKA PASSES SOUTH OF THE
BAHAMAS. SEAS REMAIN 2 - 3 FEET BEFORE INCREASING UP TO 4 FEET
SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN A BUILDING EASTERLY SWELL.

SUNDAY/WEDNESDAY...FORECAST REMAINS DEPENDENT ON THE EVENTUAL
TRACK AND INTENSITY OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA. INCREASING
EASTERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND BUILDING SEAS ARE ADVERTISED
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH DETERIORATING MARINE CONDITIONS
ANTICIPATED. PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND
UPDATES CONCERNING ERIKA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  74  89  77  88 /  20  50  30  70
MCO  74  92  76  90 /  20  50  20  70
MLB  76  90  79  88 /  20  40  30  70
VRB  75  89  77  88 /  20  40  30  70
LEE  75  92  76  92 /  20  50  20  70
SFB  74  92  76  91 /  20  50  20  70
ORL  75  92  77  90 /  20  50  20  70
FPR  75  89  78  89 /  20  40  30  70

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

FORECASTS...ULRICH
IMPACT WEATHER/RADAR....LASCODY
AVIATION...SEDLOCK




000
FXUS62 KMLB 281923
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
323 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION WORKING ITS WAY NORTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL WATCH FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE INTERIOR WHERE AMPLE SOLAR INSOLATION SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO
SOME MORE INTENSE CELLS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS UP TO 45 MPH...AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS REMAIN
THE PRIMARY THREATS. EXPECT CONVECTION TO GENERALLY PEAK OUT
BEFORE SUNSET...LEAVING ONLY ANVIL/DEBRIS RAIN THROUGH THE LATE
EVENING.

SATURDAY...SURFACE FLOW VEERS A BIT FURTHER ON SATURDAY ALLOWING
FOR A QUICK INLAND PENETRATION OF THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE. EXPECT
AFTERNOON CONVECTION TO FOCUS MORE ACROSS THE INTERIOR...HOWEVER...
MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SO DEBRIS
RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH BACK TOWARDS THE COAST.

SUNDAY...(MODIFIED PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)...WELL SOUTH OF THE
AREA...GFS HAS TAKEN A MORE DAMPENED VIEW OF ERIKA AND PULLS THE
SYSTEM TOWARD THE KEYS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF IS HAPPY TO
AGREE. CONSIDERING RUN TO RUN VARIABILITIES...THE FORECAST
REMAINS CHALLENGING FOR ERIKA RELATIVE TO THE PENINSULA.
CONSEQUENTLY...THE LOCAL FORECAST WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON THE
OFFICIAL HURRICANE CENTER FORECAST. A WEAKER ERIKA WOULD DIRECT
THE SYSTEM TOWARD THE KEYS...WHILE A SLIGHTLY STRONGER ERIKA WOULD
BRING IT A BIT MORE NORTH. MUCH WILL DEPEND ON ITS
ORGANIZATION/STRENGTH AS IT MOVES NORTH OF HISPANIOLA...BUT IT
WILL NOT HAVE MUCH TIME TO RECOVER. THE EARLIEST IN WHICH LOCAL
IMPACTS MIGHT BE FELT FROM ERIKA IS SUN AFTERNOON FOR THE TREASURE
COAST AND COUNTIES BORDERING LAKE OKEECHOBEE. ABOVE NORMAL POPS
MOST PLACES WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS.

MON-THU...FORECAST REMAINS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON EVENTUAL TRACK OF
ERIKA. A MORE WESTERN TRACK MAY MAKE FOR A GREATER RAINFALL
CONCERN WITH DEEPER S-N INLAND PENETRATION...WITH A SOLUTION MORE
EAST A GREATER CONCERN FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND ADJACENT WATERS
SINCE THIS WOULD SIGNAL A STRONGER ERIKA. CURRENT OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS FAVORING A TREND TO THE WEST AND ON THE DAMPENED SIDE
(AT THIS TIME).


&&

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED TSRA/SHRA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS
WITH A FOCUS ON INLAND TERMINAL SITES. COASTAL SITES WILL SEE LESS
COVERAGE AND HIGHER CEILINGS...THOUGH SOME DEBRIS RAIN WILL LIKELY
BE CARRIED OVERHEAD THESE SITES THROUGH SUNSET. GENERALLY VFR
OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS OUT OF THE SE/E.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT/SATURDAY...E/SE FLOW CONTINUES OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS
FRESHENING DURING THE DAY TOMORROW AS ERIKA PASSES SOUTH OF THE
BAHAMAS. SEAS REMAIN 2 - 3 FEET BEFORE INCREASING UP TO 4 FEET
SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN A BUILDING EASTERLY SWELL.

SUNDAY/WEDNESDAY...FORECAST REMAINS DEPENDENT ON THE EVENTUAL
TRACK AND INTENSITY OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA. INCREASING
EASTERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND BUILDING SEAS ARE ADVERTISED
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH DETERIORATING MARINE CONDITIONS
ANTICIPATED. PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND
UPDATES CONCERNING ERIKA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  74  89  77  88 /  20  50  30  70
MCO  74  92  76  90 /  20  50  20  70
MLB  76  90  79  88 /  20  40  30  70
VRB  75  89  77  88 /  20  40  30  70
LEE  75  92  76  92 /  20  50  20  70
SFB  74  92  76  91 /  20  50  20  70
ORL  75  92  77  90 /  20  50  20  70
FPR  75  89  78  89 /  20  40  30  70

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

FORECASTS...ULRICH
IMPACT WEATHER/RADAR....LASCODY
AVIATION...SEDLOCK




000
FXUS62 KMLB 281923
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
323 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION WORKING ITS WAY NORTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL WATCH FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE INTERIOR WHERE AMPLE SOLAR INSOLATION SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO
SOME MORE INTENSE CELLS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS UP TO 45 MPH...AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS REMAIN
THE PRIMARY THREATS. EXPECT CONVECTION TO GENERALLY PEAK OUT
BEFORE SUNSET...LEAVING ONLY ANVIL/DEBRIS RAIN THROUGH THE LATE
EVENING.

SATURDAY...SURFACE FLOW VEERS A BIT FURTHER ON SATURDAY ALLOWING
FOR A QUICK INLAND PENETRATION OF THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE. EXPECT
AFTERNOON CONVECTION TO FOCUS MORE ACROSS THE INTERIOR...HOWEVER...
MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SO DEBRIS
RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH BACK TOWARDS THE COAST.

SUNDAY...(MODIFIED PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)...WELL SOUTH OF THE
AREA...GFS HAS TAKEN A MORE DAMPENED VIEW OF ERIKA AND PULLS THE
SYSTEM TOWARD THE KEYS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF IS HAPPY TO
AGREE. CONSIDERING RUN TO RUN VARIABILITIES...THE FORECAST
REMAINS CHALLENGING FOR ERIKA RELATIVE TO THE PENINSULA.
CONSEQUENTLY...THE LOCAL FORECAST WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON THE
OFFICIAL HURRICANE CENTER FORECAST. A WEAKER ERIKA WOULD DIRECT
THE SYSTEM TOWARD THE KEYS...WHILE A SLIGHTLY STRONGER ERIKA WOULD
BRING IT A BIT MORE NORTH. MUCH WILL DEPEND ON ITS
ORGANIZATION/STRENGTH AS IT MOVES NORTH OF HISPANIOLA...BUT IT
WILL NOT HAVE MUCH TIME TO RECOVER. THE EARLIEST IN WHICH LOCAL
IMPACTS MIGHT BE FELT FROM ERIKA IS SUN AFTERNOON FOR THE TREASURE
COAST AND COUNTIES BORDERING LAKE OKEECHOBEE. ABOVE NORMAL POPS
MOST PLACES WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS.

MON-THU...FORECAST REMAINS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON EVENTUAL TRACK OF
ERIKA. A MORE WESTERN TRACK MAY MAKE FOR A GREATER RAINFALL
CONCERN WITH DEEPER S-N INLAND PENETRATION...WITH A SOLUTION MORE
EAST A GREATER CONCERN FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND ADJACENT WATERS
SINCE THIS WOULD SIGNAL A STRONGER ERIKA. CURRENT OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS FAVORING A TREND TO THE WEST AND ON THE DAMPENED SIDE
(AT THIS TIME).


&&

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED TSRA/SHRA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS
WITH A FOCUS ON INLAND TERMINAL SITES. COASTAL SITES WILL SEE LESS
COVERAGE AND HIGHER CEILINGS...THOUGH SOME DEBRIS RAIN WILL LIKELY
BE CARRIED OVERHEAD THESE SITES THROUGH SUNSET. GENERALLY VFR
OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS OUT OF THE SE/E.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT/SATURDAY...E/SE FLOW CONTINUES OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS
FRESHENING DURING THE DAY TOMORROW AS ERIKA PASSES SOUTH OF THE
BAHAMAS. SEAS REMAIN 2 - 3 FEET BEFORE INCREASING UP TO 4 FEET
SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN A BUILDING EASTERLY SWELL.

SUNDAY/WEDNESDAY...FORECAST REMAINS DEPENDENT ON THE EVENTUAL
TRACK AND INTENSITY OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA. INCREASING
EASTERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND BUILDING SEAS ARE ADVERTISED
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH DETERIORATING MARINE CONDITIONS
ANTICIPATED. PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND
UPDATES CONCERNING ERIKA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  74  89  77  88 /  20  50  30  70
MCO  74  92  76  90 /  20  50  20  70
MLB  76  90  79  88 /  20  40  30  70
VRB  75  89  77  88 /  20  40  30  70
LEE  75  92  76  92 /  20  50  20  70
SFB  74  92  76  91 /  20  50  20  70
ORL  75  92  77  90 /  20  50  20  70
FPR  75  89  78  89 /  20  40  30  70

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

FORECASTS...ULRICH
IMPACT WEATHER/RADAR....LASCODY
AVIATION...SEDLOCK





000
FXUS62 KMLB 281359
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
959 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...

...ABOVE NORMAL RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE TODAY...
...ERIKA FORECAST TO APPROACH FLORIDA LATE THIS WEEKEND...

A WEAKENING SURFACE TROUGH NEAR THE AREA HAS LED TO THE COLLAPSE
OF WINDS THROUGH ABOUT 700 MB WITH GENERALLY WEST TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW ABOVE THAT. THE WESTERN EXTENSION OF THE ATLANTIC SURFACE
RIDGE IS GRADUALLY BUILDING NORTHWARD AND SHOULD TRANSITION LOW
LEVEL FLOW TO OUT OF THE SOUTH (OUTSIDE OF THE SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATION) BY THIS AFTERNOON. 12Z XMR SOUNDING INDICATES PWATS
OF ABOUT 1.9" AND 500MB TEMPS AROUND -7C (TAMPA SOUNDING -8C AT
500MB) WHICH IS FAIRLY TYPICAL FOR LATE AUGUST.

EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH A FOCUS
TOWARDS THE INTERIOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE ATLANTIC
SEA BREEZE TO MOVE INLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND ACT AS A FOCUS FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST...EXPECT ANVIL DEBRIS/RAIN TO PUSH BACK TOWARDS COAST
AFTER STORMS GET GOING.

LIMITED MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING WILL ALLOW TEMPS
TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW 90S BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...
ANOTHER ROUND OF TSRA/SHRA OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON
WITH FOCUS ON 18-22Z TIMEFRAME FOR SHORT DURATION MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS. LIGHT SURFACE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION ONSHORE
AS ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS AND MOVES INLAND.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING TRANSITION TO THE E/SE THIS AFTERNOON
AND REMAIN BELOW 10 KNOTS. LESS OF A THREAT FOR OFFSHORE MOVING
STORMS THIS AFT BUT ISO-SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL STILL DEVELOP
OVER THE WATERS THIS AFT. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 2-3 FEET TODAY AND
UP TO 3-4 FEET FROM A BUILDING SWELL INTO TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  88  75  89  77 /  50  20  50  30
MCO  92  74  91  75 /  60  20  50  30
MLB  89  76  90  79 /  50  20  30  30
VRB  90  75  90  77 /  60  20  30  40
LEE  92  75  91  76 /  60  30  60  30
SFB  92  75  91  76 /  60  20  50  30
ORL  92  76  91  76 /  60  20  50  30
FPR  90  75  90  78 /  60  20  30  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

FORECASTS...ULRICH
RADAR/AVIATION/IMPACT WEATHER...LASCODY




000
FXUS62 KMLB 281359
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
959 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...

...ABOVE NORMAL RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE TODAY...
...ERIKA FORECAST TO APPROACH FLORIDA LATE THIS WEEKEND...

A WEAKENING SURFACE TROUGH NEAR THE AREA HAS LED TO THE COLLAPSE
OF WINDS THROUGH ABOUT 700 MB WITH GENERALLY WEST TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW ABOVE THAT. THE WESTERN EXTENSION OF THE ATLANTIC SURFACE
RIDGE IS GRADUALLY BUILDING NORTHWARD AND SHOULD TRANSITION LOW
LEVEL FLOW TO OUT OF THE SOUTH (OUTSIDE OF THE SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATION) BY THIS AFTERNOON. 12Z XMR SOUNDING INDICATES PWATS
OF ABOUT 1.9" AND 500MB TEMPS AROUND -7C (TAMPA SOUNDING -8C AT
500MB) WHICH IS FAIRLY TYPICAL FOR LATE AUGUST.

EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH A FOCUS
TOWARDS THE INTERIOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE ATLANTIC
SEA BREEZE TO MOVE INLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND ACT AS A FOCUS FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST...EXPECT ANVIL DEBRIS/RAIN TO PUSH BACK TOWARDS COAST
AFTER STORMS GET GOING.

LIMITED MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING WILL ALLOW TEMPS
TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW 90S BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...
ANOTHER ROUND OF TSRA/SHRA OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON
WITH FOCUS ON 18-22Z TIMEFRAME FOR SHORT DURATION MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS. LIGHT SURFACE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION ONSHORE
AS ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS AND MOVES INLAND.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING TRANSITION TO THE E/SE THIS AFTERNOON
AND REMAIN BELOW 10 KNOTS. LESS OF A THREAT FOR OFFSHORE MOVING
STORMS THIS AFT BUT ISO-SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL STILL DEVELOP
OVER THE WATERS THIS AFT. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 2-3 FEET TODAY AND
UP TO 3-4 FEET FROM A BUILDING SWELL INTO TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  88  75  89  77 /  50  20  50  30
MCO  92  74  91  75 /  60  20  50  30
MLB  89  76  90  79 /  50  20  30  30
VRB  90  75  90  77 /  60  20  30  40
LEE  92  75  91  76 /  60  30  60  30
SFB  92  75  91  76 /  60  20  50  30
ORL  92  76  91  76 /  60  20  50  30
FPR  90  75  90  78 /  60  20  30  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

FORECASTS...ULRICH
RADAR/AVIATION/IMPACT WEATHER...LASCODY





000
FXUS62 KMLB 281359
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
959 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...

...ABOVE NORMAL RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE TODAY...
...ERIKA FORECAST TO APPROACH FLORIDA LATE THIS WEEKEND...

A WEAKENING SURFACE TROUGH NEAR THE AREA HAS LED TO THE COLLAPSE
OF WINDS THROUGH ABOUT 700 MB WITH GENERALLY WEST TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW ABOVE THAT. THE WESTERN EXTENSION OF THE ATLANTIC SURFACE
RIDGE IS GRADUALLY BUILDING NORTHWARD AND SHOULD TRANSITION LOW
LEVEL FLOW TO OUT OF THE SOUTH (OUTSIDE OF THE SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATION) BY THIS AFTERNOON. 12Z XMR SOUNDING INDICATES PWATS
OF ABOUT 1.9" AND 500MB TEMPS AROUND -7C (TAMPA SOUNDING -8C AT
500MB) WHICH IS FAIRLY TYPICAL FOR LATE AUGUST.

EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH A FOCUS
TOWARDS THE INTERIOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE ATLANTIC
SEA BREEZE TO MOVE INLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND ACT AS A FOCUS FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST...EXPECT ANVIL DEBRIS/RAIN TO PUSH BACK TOWARDS COAST
AFTER STORMS GET GOING.

LIMITED MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING WILL ALLOW TEMPS
TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW 90S BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...
ANOTHER ROUND OF TSRA/SHRA OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON
WITH FOCUS ON 18-22Z TIMEFRAME FOR SHORT DURATION MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS. LIGHT SURFACE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION ONSHORE
AS ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS AND MOVES INLAND.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING TRANSITION TO THE E/SE THIS AFTERNOON
AND REMAIN BELOW 10 KNOTS. LESS OF A THREAT FOR OFFSHORE MOVING
STORMS THIS AFT BUT ISO-SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL STILL DEVELOP
OVER THE WATERS THIS AFT. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 2-3 FEET TODAY AND
UP TO 3-4 FEET FROM A BUILDING SWELL INTO TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  88  75  89  77 /  50  20  50  30
MCO  92  74  91  75 /  60  20  50  30
MLB  89  76  90  79 /  50  20  30  30
VRB  90  75  90  77 /  60  20  30  40
LEE  92  75  91  76 /  60  30  60  30
SFB  92  75  91  76 /  60  20  50  30
ORL  92  76  91  76 /  60  20  50  30
FPR  90  75  90  78 /  60  20  30  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

FORECASTS...ULRICH
RADAR/AVIATION/IMPACT WEATHER...LASCODY




000
FXUS62 KMLB 281359
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
959 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...

...ABOVE NORMAL RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE TODAY...
...ERIKA FORECAST TO APPROACH FLORIDA LATE THIS WEEKEND...

A WEAKENING SURFACE TROUGH NEAR THE AREA HAS LED TO THE COLLAPSE
OF WINDS THROUGH ABOUT 700 MB WITH GENERALLY WEST TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW ABOVE THAT. THE WESTERN EXTENSION OF THE ATLANTIC SURFACE
RIDGE IS GRADUALLY BUILDING NORTHWARD AND SHOULD TRANSITION LOW
LEVEL FLOW TO OUT OF THE SOUTH (OUTSIDE OF THE SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATION) BY THIS AFTERNOON. 12Z XMR SOUNDING INDICATES PWATS
OF ABOUT 1.9" AND 500MB TEMPS AROUND -7C (TAMPA SOUNDING -8C AT
500MB) WHICH IS FAIRLY TYPICAL FOR LATE AUGUST.

EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH A FOCUS
TOWARDS THE INTERIOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE ATLANTIC
SEA BREEZE TO MOVE INLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND ACT AS A FOCUS FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST...EXPECT ANVIL DEBRIS/RAIN TO PUSH BACK TOWARDS COAST
AFTER STORMS GET GOING.

LIMITED MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING WILL ALLOW TEMPS
TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW 90S BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...
ANOTHER ROUND OF TSRA/SHRA OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON
WITH FOCUS ON 18-22Z TIMEFRAME FOR SHORT DURATION MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS. LIGHT SURFACE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION ONSHORE
AS ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS AND MOVES INLAND.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING TRANSITION TO THE E/SE THIS AFTERNOON
AND REMAIN BELOW 10 KNOTS. LESS OF A THREAT FOR OFFSHORE MOVING
STORMS THIS AFT BUT ISO-SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL STILL DEVELOP
OVER THE WATERS THIS AFT. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 2-3 FEET TODAY AND
UP TO 3-4 FEET FROM A BUILDING SWELL INTO TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  88  75  89  77 /  50  20  50  30
MCO  92  74  91  75 /  60  20  50  30
MLB  89  76  90  79 /  50  20  30  30
VRB  90  75  90  77 /  60  20  30  40
LEE  92  75  91  76 /  60  30  60  30
SFB  92  75  91  76 /  60  20  50  30
ORL  92  76  91  76 /  60  20  50  30
FPR  90  75  90  78 /  60  20  30  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

FORECASTS...ULRICH
RADAR/AVIATION/IMPACT WEATHER...LASCODY





000
FXUS62 KMLB 281032
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
632 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...ABOVE NORMAL RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE TODAY...

...ERIKA FORECAST TO APPROACH SOUTH FLORIDA LATE THIS WEEKEND
BRINGING POSSIBLE IMPACTS TO CENTRAL FLORIDA LATE SUNDAY INTO
TUESDAY...

TODAY/TONIGHT...WEAK LOW LEVEL WINDS OUT OF E/SE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY...SOUTH OF A LINGERING BUT WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY. GFS
INDICATES OVERALL MOISTURE MAY BE LOWER THAN YESTERDAY TO START OFF
OVER THE REGION WITH PW VALUES 1.7-1.8 INCHES WHICH IS PERHAPS WHY
THE MAV GUIDANCE CAME IN MUCH LOWER WITH POPS (AROUND 20 PERCENT
DECREASE) ON THE LATEST RUN. HOWEVER A GRADUAL MOISTURE INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY COMBINED WITH A CONTINUED DISTURBED AND WEAKLY
DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT SHOULD LEAD TO SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND STORMS OVER THE REGION INTO THE AFT. E/SE FLOW WILL SHIFT HIGHER
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE INLAND WITH THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE BUT AN
ELEVATED UPPER LEVEL SW FLOW WILL POTENTIALLY TRANSPORT ANY DEBRIS
CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN BACK TOWARD THE COAST. COOL TEMPS ALOFT AROUND
-8 TO -9C AND SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW STRONGER
STORMS WITH MAIN THREATS BEING FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES AND STRONG
WIND GUSTS UP TO 40-50 MPH. HOWEVER WEAK STEERING FLOW WILL ALSO
LEAD TO SLOW STORM MOTION THIS AFT WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
PRODUCING MINOR FLOODING ALSO A CONCERN.

CONVECTION MAY BE DELAYED LONG ENOUGH OVER THE INTERIOR FOR HIGHS TO
REACH THE LOW 90S...WHILE ALONG THE COAST UPPER 80S/AROUND 90
DEGREES ARE EXPECTED WITH A MORE NORMAL ONSET OF THE SEA BREEZE.

SAT-SUN...SAT WILL REALIZE A MORE VEERED LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW FROM
THE SE/E. LOCAL STORM CHANCES STILL FAVORABLE...BUT WITH A BETTER
SKEW INLAND. WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA...LATEST GFS HAS TAKEN A MORE
DAMPENED VIEW OF ERIKA AND PULLS THE CENTER TOWARD THE KEYS BY THE
END OF THE FORECAST WINDOW. THE ECMWF IS HAPPY TO AGREE.
CONSIDERING RUN TO RUN VARIABILITIES...ALONG WITH OTHER TROPICAL
CYCLONE TRACK AND INTENSITY MODELS...BEARS OUT THAT THE FORECAST
REMAINS CHALLENGING FOR ERIKA RELATIVE TO THE PENINSULA.
CONSEQUENTLY...THE LOCAL FORECAST WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON THE
OFFICAL SYNOPTIC FORECAST. A WEAKER ERIKA WOULD DIRECT THE SYSTEM
TOWARD THE KEYS...WHILE A SLIGHTLY STRONGER ERIKA WOULD BRING IT A
BIT MORE NORTH. MUCH WILL DEPEND ON ITS ORGANIZATION/STRENGTH AS
IT MOVES NORTH OF HISPANIOLA...BUT IT WON`T HAVE MUCH TIME TO
RECOVER. THE EARLIEST IN WHICH LOCAL IMPACTS MIGHT BE FELT FROM
ERIKA IS SUN AFTERNOON FOR TREASURE COAST AND COUNTIES BORDERING
LAKE OKEECHOBEE. ABOVE NORMAL POPS MOST PLACES WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPS.

MON-THU...FORECAST REMAINS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON EVENTUAL TRACK OF
ERIKA. A MORE WESTERN TRACK MAY MAKE FOR A GREATER RAINFALL
CONCERN WITH DEEPER S-N INLAND PENETRATION...WITH A SOLUTION MORE
EAST A GREATER CONCERN FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND ADJACENT WATERS
SINCE THIS WOULD SIGNAL A STRONGER ERIKA. CURRENT OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS FAVORING A TREND TO THE WEST AND ON THE DAMPENED SIDE
(AT THIS TIME).

&&

.AVIATION...
.AVIATION...VFR CONDS GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING. WEAK
E/SE FLOW WILL ALLOW SEA BREEZE TO FORM EARLY AFT WITH ISO/SCT
SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND INCREASING IN COVERAGE
INLAND THROUGH THE AFT. BEST CHANCE FOR TEMPO IFR/MVFR CONDS IN
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE ALONG TREASURE COAST AS SEA BREEZE FORMS
AND OVER THE INTERIOR TOWARD MID-LATE AFT AS CONVECTION INCREASES.

RAIN CHANCES DECREASE INTO THE EVENING AND GENERALLY END BY MIDNIGHT
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ONSHORE MOVING
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE TREASURE COAST OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY/TONIGHT...LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW WILL EXIST FROM LAND BREEZE
OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING. FLOW THEN BECOMES
MORE E/SE INTO THE AFT...AROUND 5-10 KNOTS...AS THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE FORMS AND MOVES INLAND. LESS OF A THREAT FOR OFFSHORE
MOVING STORMS THIS AFT BUT ISO-SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL STILL
DEVELOP OVER THE WATERS THIS AFT. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 2-3 FEET
TODAY AND UP TO 3-4 FEET FROM A BUILDING SWELL INTO TONIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE STARTING SUN AS THE OUTER
REACHES OF ERIKA ARE FELT FIRST FOR WATERS SOUTH OF SEBASTIAN
INLET. PASSING SQUALLS WILL SUPPORT TORRENTIAL RAIN AND HIGHER
GUSTS. THE CHANCE FOR THESE CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WHEN THE POTENTIAL FINALLY EXITS THE WATERS
NORTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL THEN. THE ACTUAL TRACK FOR ERIKA WILL
GOVERN THE REALIZED WIND SPEEDS AND SUBSEQUENT SEAS. FOR
NOW...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE LESS LIKEY BUT TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITH VERY STOUT GUSTS REMAIN THE CONCERN. IF ERIKA TAKES A
TRACK MORE TO THE EAST ALONG THE FLORIDA ATLANTIC COAST...WINDS
WILL BE HIGHER AND COULD DRIVE SEAS 25 TO 30 FT. HOWEVER...WITH
THE LATEST FORECAST...THE CENTER REMAINS INLAND WHILE ONSHORE FLOW
COULD DRIVE SEAS TO 20 TO 25 FEET. HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS
EITHER WAY...EVEN GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  88  75  89  77 /  50  20  50  30
MCO  92  74  91  75 /  60  20  50  30
MLB  89  76  90  79 /  50  20  30  30
VRB  90  75  90  77 /  60  20  30  40
LEE  92  75  91  76 /  60  30  60  30
SFB  92  75  91  76 /  60  20  50  30
ORL  92  76  91  76 /  60  20  50  30
FPR  90  75  90  78 /  60  20  30  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM....DS




000
FXUS62 KMLB 281032
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
632 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...ABOVE NORMAL RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE TODAY...

...ERIKA FORECAST TO APPROACH SOUTH FLORIDA LATE THIS WEEKEND
BRINGING POSSIBLE IMPACTS TO CENTRAL FLORIDA LATE SUNDAY INTO
TUESDAY...

TODAY/TONIGHT...WEAK LOW LEVEL WINDS OUT OF E/SE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY...SOUTH OF A LINGERING BUT WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY. GFS
INDICATES OVERALL MOISTURE MAY BE LOWER THAN YESTERDAY TO START OFF
OVER THE REGION WITH PW VALUES 1.7-1.8 INCHES WHICH IS PERHAPS WHY
THE MAV GUIDANCE CAME IN MUCH LOWER WITH POPS (AROUND 20 PERCENT
DECREASE) ON THE LATEST RUN. HOWEVER A GRADUAL MOISTURE INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY COMBINED WITH A CONTINUED DISTURBED AND WEAKLY
DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT SHOULD LEAD TO SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND STORMS OVER THE REGION INTO THE AFT. E/SE FLOW WILL SHIFT HIGHER
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE INLAND WITH THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE BUT AN
ELEVATED UPPER LEVEL SW FLOW WILL POTENTIALLY TRANSPORT ANY DEBRIS
CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN BACK TOWARD THE COAST. COOL TEMPS ALOFT AROUND
-8 TO -9C AND SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW STRONGER
STORMS WITH MAIN THREATS BEING FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES AND STRONG
WIND GUSTS UP TO 40-50 MPH. HOWEVER WEAK STEERING FLOW WILL ALSO
LEAD TO SLOW STORM MOTION THIS AFT WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
PRODUCING MINOR FLOODING ALSO A CONCERN.

CONVECTION MAY BE DELAYED LONG ENOUGH OVER THE INTERIOR FOR HIGHS TO
REACH THE LOW 90S...WHILE ALONG THE COAST UPPER 80S/AROUND 90
DEGREES ARE EXPECTED WITH A MORE NORMAL ONSET OF THE SEA BREEZE.

SAT-SUN...SAT WILL REALIZE A MORE VEERED LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW FROM
THE SE/E. LOCAL STORM CHANCES STILL FAVORABLE...BUT WITH A BETTER
SKEW INLAND. WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA...LATEST GFS HAS TAKEN A MORE
DAMPENED VIEW OF ERIKA AND PULLS THE CENTER TOWARD THE KEYS BY THE
END OF THE FORECAST WINDOW. THE ECMWF IS HAPPY TO AGREE.
CONSIDERING RUN TO RUN VARIABILITIES...ALONG WITH OTHER TROPICAL
CYCLONE TRACK AND INTENSITY MODELS...BEARS OUT THAT THE FORECAST
REMAINS CHALLENGING FOR ERIKA RELATIVE TO THE PENINSULA.
CONSEQUENTLY...THE LOCAL FORECAST WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON THE
OFFICAL SYNOPTIC FORECAST. A WEAKER ERIKA WOULD DIRECT THE SYSTEM
TOWARD THE KEYS...WHILE A SLIGHTLY STRONGER ERIKA WOULD BRING IT A
BIT MORE NORTH. MUCH WILL DEPEND ON ITS ORGANIZATION/STRENGTH AS
IT MOVES NORTH OF HISPANIOLA...BUT IT WON`T HAVE MUCH TIME TO
RECOVER. THE EARLIEST IN WHICH LOCAL IMPACTS MIGHT BE FELT FROM
ERIKA IS SUN AFTERNOON FOR TREASURE COAST AND COUNTIES BORDERING
LAKE OKEECHOBEE. ABOVE NORMAL POPS MOST PLACES WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPS.

MON-THU...FORECAST REMAINS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON EVENTUAL TRACK OF
ERIKA. A MORE WESTERN TRACK MAY MAKE FOR A GREATER RAINFALL
CONCERN WITH DEEPER S-N INLAND PENETRATION...WITH A SOLUTION MORE
EAST A GREATER CONCERN FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND ADJACENT WATERS
SINCE THIS WOULD SIGNAL A STRONGER ERIKA. CURRENT OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS FAVORING A TREND TO THE WEST AND ON THE DAMPENED SIDE
(AT THIS TIME).

&&

.AVIATION...
.AVIATION...VFR CONDS GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING. WEAK
E/SE FLOW WILL ALLOW SEA BREEZE TO FORM EARLY AFT WITH ISO/SCT
SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND INCREASING IN COVERAGE
INLAND THROUGH THE AFT. BEST CHANCE FOR TEMPO IFR/MVFR CONDS IN
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE ALONG TREASURE COAST AS SEA BREEZE FORMS
AND OVER THE INTERIOR TOWARD MID-LATE AFT AS CONVECTION INCREASES.

RAIN CHANCES DECREASE INTO THE EVENING AND GENERALLY END BY MIDNIGHT
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ONSHORE MOVING
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE TREASURE COAST OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY/TONIGHT...LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW WILL EXIST FROM LAND BREEZE
OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING. FLOW THEN BECOMES
MORE E/SE INTO THE AFT...AROUND 5-10 KNOTS...AS THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE FORMS AND MOVES INLAND. LESS OF A THREAT FOR OFFSHORE
MOVING STORMS THIS AFT BUT ISO-SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL STILL
DEVELOP OVER THE WATERS THIS AFT. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 2-3 FEET
TODAY AND UP TO 3-4 FEET FROM A BUILDING SWELL INTO TONIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE STARTING SUN AS THE OUTER
REACHES OF ERIKA ARE FELT FIRST FOR WATERS SOUTH OF SEBASTIAN
INLET. PASSING SQUALLS WILL SUPPORT TORRENTIAL RAIN AND HIGHER
GUSTS. THE CHANCE FOR THESE CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WHEN THE POTENTIAL FINALLY EXITS THE WATERS
NORTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL THEN. THE ACTUAL TRACK FOR ERIKA WILL
GOVERN THE REALIZED WIND SPEEDS AND SUBSEQUENT SEAS. FOR
NOW...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE LESS LIKEY BUT TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITH VERY STOUT GUSTS REMAIN THE CONCERN. IF ERIKA TAKES A
TRACK MORE TO THE EAST ALONG THE FLORIDA ATLANTIC COAST...WINDS
WILL BE HIGHER AND COULD DRIVE SEAS 25 TO 30 FT. HOWEVER...WITH
THE LATEST FORECAST...THE CENTER REMAINS INLAND WHILE ONSHORE FLOW
COULD DRIVE SEAS TO 20 TO 25 FEET. HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS
EITHER WAY...EVEN GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  88  75  89  77 /  50  20  50  30
MCO  92  74  91  75 /  60  20  50  30
MLB  89  76  90  79 /  50  20  30  30
VRB  90  75  90  77 /  60  20  30  40
LEE  92  75  91  76 /  60  30  60  30
SFB  92  75  91  76 /  60  20  50  30
ORL  92  76  91  76 /  60  20  50  30
FPR  90  75  90  78 /  60  20  30  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM....DS





000
FXUS62 KMLB 280054
AFDMLB

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
855 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.DISCUSSION... CONVECTION AND ITS LINGERING SHOWERS OVER LAND HAD A
RATHER EARLY ENDING THIS EVENING. THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING WILL
FEATURE LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND A BANNER OF HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDINESS
WITH MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 70S. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS IS PREDICTED FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE SETUP. WILL HOLD OFF ON A TEXT FORECAST UPDATE UNTIL AFTER THE
NEXT 11 PM ADVISORY ON TS ERIKA IS ISSUED.

&&

.AVIATION... VFR OVERNIGHT WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. MAIN WINDOW FOR OCCASIONAL CIG AND VSBY
REDUCTIONS WILL UNFOLD FROM 18Z THROUGH 22Z.

&&

.MARINE... WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO SOUTHERLY WHILE
REMAINING AROUND 10 KNOTS. SEAS AROUND 2 FEET NEARSHORE AND UP TO 3
FEET OFFSHORE. A FEW STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ESP NEAR THE GULF
STREAM.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

JP/MB





000
FXUS62 KMLB 280054
AFDMLB

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
855 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.DISCUSSION... CONVECTION AND ITS LINGERING SHOWERS OVER LAND HAD A
RATHER EARLY ENDING THIS EVENING. THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING WILL
FEATURE LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND A BANNER OF HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDINESS
WITH MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 70S. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS IS PREDICTED FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE SETUP. WILL HOLD OFF ON A TEXT FORECAST UPDATE UNTIL AFTER THE
NEXT 11 PM ADVISORY ON TS ERIKA IS ISSUED.

&&

.AVIATION... VFR OVERNIGHT WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. MAIN WINDOW FOR OCCASIONAL CIG AND VSBY
REDUCTIONS WILL UNFOLD FROM 18Z THROUGH 22Z.

&&

.MARINE... WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO SOUTHERLY WHILE
REMAINING AROUND 10 KNOTS. SEAS AROUND 2 FEET NEARSHORE AND UP TO 3
FEET OFFSHORE. A FEW STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ESP NEAR THE GULF
STREAM.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

JP/MB




000
FXUS62 KMLB 280054
AFDMLB

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
855 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.DISCUSSION... CONVECTION AND ITS LINGERING SHOWERS OVER LAND HAD A
RATHER EARLY ENDING THIS EVENING. THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING WILL
FEATURE LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND A BANNER OF HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDINESS
WITH MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 70S. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS IS PREDICTED FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE SETUP. WILL HOLD OFF ON A TEXT FORECAST UPDATE UNTIL AFTER THE
NEXT 11 PM ADVISORY ON TS ERIKA IS ISSUED.

&&

.AVIATION... VFR OVERNIGHT WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. MAIN WINDOW FOR OCCASIONAL CIG AND VSBY
REDUCTIONS WILL UNFOLD FROM 18Z THROUGH 22Z.

&&

.MARINE... WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO SOUTHERLY WHILE
REMAINING AROUND 10 KNOTS. SEAS AROUND 2 FEET NEARSHORE AND UP TO 3
FEET OFFSHORE. A FEW STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ESP NEAR THE GULF
STREAM.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

JP/MB




000
FXUS62 KMLB 280054
AFDMLB

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
855 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.DISCUSSION... CONVECTION AND ITS LINGERING SHOWERS OVER LAND HAD A
RATHER EARLY ENDING THIS EVENING. THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING WILL
FEATURE LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND A BANNER OF HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDINESS
WITH MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 70S. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS IS PREDICTED FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE SETUP. WILL HOLD OFF ON A TEXT FORECAST UPDATE UNTIL AFTER THE
NEXT 11 PM ADVISORY ON TS ERIKA IS ISSUED.

&&

.AVIATION... VFR OVERNIGHT WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. MAIN WINDOW FOR OCCASIONAL CIG AND VSBY
REDUCTIONS WILL UNFOLD FROM 18Z THROUGH 22Z.

&&

.MARINE... WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO SOUTHERLY WHILE
REMAINING AROUND 10 KNOTS. SEAS AROUND 2 FEET NEARSHORE AND UP TO 3
FEET OFFSHORE. A FEW STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ESP NEAR THE GULF
STREAM.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

JP/MB





000
FXUS62 KMLB 271916
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
316 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
CLOUD COVER KEPT SOLAR INSOLATION TO A MINIMUM TODAY...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90. COOLER TEMPERATURES
ALOFT ALONG WITH A FAVORABLE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL
JET GOT CONVECTION GOING EARLY TODAY WITH MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY
FOCUSING ALONG OUR COASTAL COUNTIES AS OF 3 PM.

REST OF TODAY/TONIGHT....EXPECT BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS TO PEAK
ALONG THE COAST THROUGH 4 PM AND ALLOW THE HEAVIEST CONVECTION TO
MOVE OFFSHORE SHORTLY THEREAFTER. PATCHY DEBRIS/ANVIL RAIN CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH SUNSET. MAINTAINING A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR
STORMS ALONG THE COAST...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE CAPE...WHERE
NOCTURNAL ACTIVITY MAY BE ABLE TO MAKE IT BACK TOWARDS THE COAST
IN THE VEERING LOW LEVEL FLOW.

FRIDAY/SATURDAY...WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE STATE WILL
MOVE WESTWARD...ALLOWING LOW LEVEL WINDS OVER OUR AREA TO VEER TO
THE EAST/SOUTHEAST. MOIST AIRMASS WILL KEEP HIGH RAIN CHANCES IN
THE FORECAST BEFORE STEADIER EAST FLOW AND SOME DRIER AIR DROPS POPS
A BIT LOWER ON SATURDAY AND FOCUS CONVECTION TOWARDS THE INTERIOR.
ONSHORE MOVING SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN
THE EASTERLY FLOW.

SUN-WED...FORECAST REMAINS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE EVENTUAL
EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF ERIKA. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH GIVEN THE
AMOUNT OF SHEAR AND LAND INTERACTION ERIKA MAY HAVE TO OVERCOME
OVER THE NEXT ONE TO TWO DAYS. GIVEN THE SIGNIFICANT DISCREPANCIES
AND MODEL RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCIES...IT REMAINS IMPORTANT FOR
RESIDENTS AND VISITORS OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA TO MONITOR THE
LATEST FORECASTS AND UPDATES CONCERNING ERIKA.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONVECTION WILL FOCUS ACROSS COASTAL TERMINALS FROM KTIX SOUTH TO
KSUA THROUGH 21Z WITH PATCHY DEBRIS/ANVIL RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH
00Z. GENERALLY VFR OVERNIGHT WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA
EXPECTED TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
REST OF TODAY/TONIGHT...OFFSHORE MOVING THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY LINGER OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO SOUTHERLY WHILE
REMAINING AROUND 10 KNOTS. SEAS AROUND 2 FEET NEARSHORE AND UP TO
3 FEET OFFSHORE.

FRIDAY/SATURDAY...FLOW WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST/EAST BY THE
EARLY WEEKEND AS TS ERIKA IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE SE
BAHAMAS. WINDS 10-15 KNOTS WITH SEAS BUILDING UP TO 4 FEET
OFFSHORE.

SUN-MON...FORECAST REMAINS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE EVENTUAL
EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF ERIKA. FORECAST UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH
GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR AND LAND INTERACTION ERIKA MAY HAVE TO
OVERCOME OVER THE NEXT ONE TO TWO DAYS. GIVEN THE SIGNIFICANT
DISCREPANCIES AND MODEL RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCIES...IT REMAINS
IMPORTANT FOR RESIDENTS AND VISITORS TO EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA TO
MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND UPDATES CONCERNING ERIKA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  75  87  75  87 /  40  60  30  50
MCO  74  90  75  91 /  30  60  30  50
MLB  74  88  77  88 /  40  60  30  30
VRB  73  89  76  89 /  50  60  30  30
LEE  76  90  76  90 /  30  60  30  60
SFB  75  90  75  90 /  30  60  30  50
ORL  76  90  76  90 /  30  60  30  50
FPR  72  89  74  89 /  40  60  30  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

FORECASTS...ULRICH
AVIATION/IMPACT WEATHER/RADAR....LASCODY




000
FXUS62 KMLB 271916
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
316 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
CLOUD COVER KEPT SOLAR INSOLATION TO A MINIMUM TODAY...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90. COOLER TEMPERATURES
ALOFT ALONG WITH A FAVORABLE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL
JET GOT CONVECTION GOING EARLY TODAY WITH MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY
FOCUSING ALONG OUR COASTAL COUNTIES AS OF 3 PM.

REST OF TODAY/TONIGHT....EXPECT BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS TO PEAK
ALONG THE COAST THROUGH 4 PM AND ALLOW THE HEAVIEST CONVECTION TO
MOVE OFFSHORE SHORTLY THEREAFTER. PATCHY DEBRIS/ANVIL RAIN CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH SUNSET. MAINTAINING A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR
STORMS ALONG THE COAST...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE CAPE...WHERE
NOCTURNAL ACTIVITY MAY BE ABLE TO MAKE IT BACK TOWARDS THE COAST
IN THE VEERING LOW LEVEL FLOW.

FRIDAY/SATURDAY...WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE STATE WILL
MOVE WESTWARD...ALLOWING LOW LEVEL WINDS OVER OUR AREA TO VEER TO
THE EAST/SOUTHEAST. MOIST AIRMASS WILL KEEP HIGH RAIN CHANCES IN
THE FORECAST BEFORE STEADIER EAST FLOW AND SOME DRIER AIR DROPS POPS
A BIT LOWER ON SATURDAY AND FOCUS CONVECTION TOWARDS THE INTERIOR.
ONSHORE MOVING SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN
THE EASTERLY FLOW.

SUN-WED...FORECAST REMAINS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE EVENTUAL
EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF ERIKA. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH GIVEN THE
AMOUNT OF SHEAR AND LAND INTERACTION ERIKA MAY HAVE TO OVERCOME
OVER THE NEXT ONE TO TWO DAYS. GIVEN THE SIGNIFICANT DISCREPANCIES
AND MODEL RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCIES...IT REMAINS IMPORTANT FOR
RESIDENTS AND VISITORS OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA TO MONITOR THE
LATEST FORECASTS AND UPDATES CONCERNING ERIKA.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONVECTION WILL FOCUS ACROSS COASTAL TERMINALS FROM KTIX SOUTH TO
KSUA THROUGH 21Z WITH PATCHY DEBRIS/ANVIL RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH
00Z. GENERALLY VFR OVERNIGHT WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA
EXPECTED TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
REST OF TODAY/TONIGHT...OFFSHORE MOVING THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY LINGER OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO SOUTHERLY WHILE
REMAINING AROUND 10 KNOTS. SEAS AROUND 2 FEET NEARSHORE AND UP TO
3 FEET OFFSHORE.

FRIDAY/SATURDAY...FLOW WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST/EAST BY THE
EARLY WEEKEND AS TS ERIKA IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE SE
BAHAMAS. WINDS 10-15 KNOTS WITH SEAS BUILDING UP TO 4 FEET
OFFSHORE.

SUN-MON...FORECAST REMAINS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE EVENTUAL
EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF ERIKA. FORECAST UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH
GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR AND LAND INTERACTION ERIKA MAY HAVE TO
OVERCOME OVER THE NEXT ONE TO TWO DAYS. GIVEN THE SIGNIFICANT
DISCREPANCIES AND MODEL RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCIES...IT REMAINS
IMPORTANT FOR RESIDENTS AND VISITORS TO EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA TO
MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND UPDATES CONCERNING ERIKA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  75  87  75  87 /  40  60  30  50
MCO  74  90  75  91 /  30  60  30  50
MLB  74  88  77  88 /  40  60  30  30
VRB  73  89  76  89 /  50  60  30  30
LEE  76  90  76  90 /  30  60  30  60
SFB  75  90  75  90 /  30  60  30  50
ORL  76  90  76  90 /  30  60  30  50
FPR  72  89  74  89 /  40  60  30  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

FORECASTS...ULRICH
AVIATION/IMPACT WEATHER/RADAR....LASCODY





000
FXUS62 KMLB 271408
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1008 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ANOMALOUSLY DEEP SURFACE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
LIE JUST WEST OF THE STATE WITH A TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT PRESENT
OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. LOCAL CWA REMAINS IN A MOIST
ENVIRONMENT WITH RICH PWATS IN EXCESS OF 2-INCHES CONTINUING OVER
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. MORNING SOUNDING FROM XMR SHOWS 500MB
TEMPERATURES AROUND -7C (ABOUT THE SAME AS YESTERDAY AFTERNOON)
AND LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING THROUGH THE COLUMN.

LATEST ANALYSIS SUGGESTS RAIN COVERAGE WILL BE HIGH
TODAY...HOWEVER...ONE LIMITING FACTOR MAY BE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS
FROM THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION OVER WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE. ALL
IN ALL...SUSPECT ENOUGH HEATING WILL TAKE PLACE TO PRODUCE ANOTHER
AFTERNOON OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS. PRIMARY
THREATS REMAIN HEAVY RAIN AND LIGHTNING WITH A FEW STRONGER STORMS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.

REST OF THIS MORNINGS FORECAST PACKAGE REMAINS ON TRACK. PLEASE
REFER TO THE EARLY MORNING AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION AND
INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR THIS WEEKENDS
OUTLOOK AND ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON TROPICAL STORM ERIKA.

&&

.AVIATION...
DEEP MOISTURE AND SW FLOW AHEAD OF A TROUGH ALOFT WILL
ALLOW FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA TO DVLP ACROSS E CENTRAL
FL. HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO GROUPS...AND WILL LIKELY NEED ADDITIONAL
AMENDMENTS...FOR ALL TERMINALS WITH THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION OF
STORMS EXPECTED FROM 18Z-23Z. CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH BY LATE
EVENING WITH A CHC FOR SHRA ALONG CSTL TERMINALS FROM KMLB S
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO 10 KNOTS TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH SEAS 2-
3 FT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE WATERS MAINLY OFFSHORE THIS MORNING AND NEAR THE EAST
COAST AND INTRACOASTAL WATERS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  88  73  89  75 /  60  40  60  40
MCO  90  73  91  74 /  70  30  70  40
MLB  88  72  88  76 /  60  40  60  40
VRB  89  71  89  75 /  60  50  60  40
LEE  90  75  91  76 /  70  30  70  30
SFB  90  73  92  75 /  70  30  60  40
ORL  90  74  91  76 /  70  30  60  40
FPR  88  72  90  75 /  60  40  60  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

FORECASTS...ULRICH
IMPACT WEATHER/AVIATION/RADAR....LASCODY




000
FXUS62 KMLB 271408
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1008 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ANOMALOUSLY DEEP SURFACE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
LIE JUST WEST OF THE STATE WITH A TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT PRESENT
OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. LOCAL CWA REMAINS IN A MOIST
ENVIRONMENT WITH RICH PWATS IN EXCESS OF 2-INCHES CONTINUING OVER
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. MORNING SOUNDING FROM XMR SHOWS 500MB
TEMPERATURES AROUND -7C (ABOUT THE SAME AS YESTERDAY AFTERNOON)
AND LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING THROUGH THE COLUMN.

LATEST ANALYSIS SUGGESTS RAIN COVERAGE WILL BE HIGH
TODAY...HOWEVER...ONE LIMITING FACTOR MAY BE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS
FROM THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION OVER WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE. ALL
IN ALL...SUSPECT ENOUGH HEATING WILL TAKE PLACE TO PRODUCE ANOTHER
AFTERNOON OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS. PRIMARY
THREATS REMAIN HEAVY RAIN AND LIGHTNING WITH A FEW STRONGER STORMS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.

REST OF THIS MORNINGS FORECAST PACKAGE REMAINS ON TRACK. PLEASE
REFER TO THE EARLY MORNING AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION AND
INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR THIS WEEKENDS
OUTLOOK AND ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON TROPICAL STORM ERIKA.

&&

.AVIATION...
DEEP MOISTURE AND SW FLOW AHEAD OF A TROUGH ALOFT WILL
ALLOW FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA TO DVLP ACROSS E CENTRAL
FL. HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO GROUPS...AND WILL LIKELY NEED ADDITIONAL
AMENDMENTS...FOR ALL TERMINALS WITH THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION OF
STORMS EXPECTED FROM 18Z-23Z. CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH BY LATE
EVENING WITH A CHC FOR SHRA ALONG CSTL TERMINALS FROM KMLB S
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO 10 KNOTS TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH SEAS 2-
3 FT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE WATERS MAINLY OFFSHORE THIS MORNING AND NEAR THE EAST
COAST AND INTRACOASTAL WATERS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  88  73  89  75 /  60  40  60  40
MCO  90  73  91  74 /  70  30  70  40
MLB  88  72  88  76 /  60  40  60  40
VRB  89  71  89  75 /  60  50  60  40
LEE  90  75  91  76 /  70  30  70  30
SFB  90  73  92  75 /  70  30  60  40
ORL  90  74  91  76 /  70  30  60  40
FPR  88  72  90  75 /  60  40  60  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

FORECASTS...ULRICH
IMPACT WEATHER/AVIATION/RADAR....LASCODY





000
FXUS62 KMLB 271408
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1008 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ANOMALOUSLY DEEP SURFACE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
LIE JUST WEST OF THE STATE WITH A TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT PRESENT
OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. LOCAL CWA REMAINS IN A MOIST
ENVIRONMENT WITH RICH PWATS IN EXCESS OF 2-INCHES CONTINUING OVER
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. MORNING SOUNDING FROM XMR SHOWS 500MB
TEMPERATURES AROUND -7C (ABOUT THE SAME AS YESTERDAY AFTERNOON)
AND LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING THROUGH THE COLUMN.

LATEST ANALYSIS SUGGESTS RAIN COVERAGE WILL BE HIGH
TODAY...HOWEVER...ONE LIMITING FACTOR MAY BE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS
FROM THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION OVER WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE. ALL
IN ALL...SUSPECT ENOUGH HEATING WILL TAKE PLACE TO PRODUCE ANOTHER
AFTERNOON OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS. PRIMARY
THREATS REMAIN HEAVY RAIN AND LIGHTNING WITH A FEW STRONGER STORMS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.

REST OF THIS MORNINGS FORECAST PACKAGE REMAINS ON TRACK. PLEASE
REFER TO THE EARLY MORNING AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION AND
INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR THIS WEEKENDS
OUTLOOK AND ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON TROPICAL STORM ERIKA.

&&

.AVIATION...
DEEP MOISTURE AND SW FLOW AHEAD OF A TROUGH ALOFT WILL
ALLOW FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA TO DVLP ACROSS E CENTRAL
FL. HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO GROUPS...AND WILL LIKELY NEED ADDITIONAL
AMENDMENTS...FOR ALL TERMINALS WITH THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION OF
STORMS EXPECTED FROM 18Z-23Z. CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH BY LATE
EVENING WITH A CHC FOR SHRA ALONG CSTL TERMINALS FROM KMLB S
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO 10 KNOTS TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH SEAS 2-
3 FT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE WATERS MAINLY OFFSHORE THIS MORNING AND NEAR THE EAST
COAST AND INTRACOASTAL WATERS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  88  73  89  75 /  60  40  60  40
MCO  90  73  91  74 /  70  30  70  40
MLB  88  72  88  76 /  60  40  60  40
VRB  89  71  89  75 /  60  50  60  40
LEE  90  75  91  76 /  70  30  70  30
SFB  90  73  92  75 /  70  30  60  40
ORL  90  74  91  76 /  70  30  60  40
FPR  88  72  90  75 /  60  40  60  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

FORECASTS...ULRICH
IMPACT WEATHER/AVIATION/RADAR....LASCODY




000
FXUS62 KMLB 270803
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
402 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...HIGH RAIN CHANCES TODAY AND FRIDAY...
...ERIKA FORECAST TO IMPACT THE NW BAHAMAS SUNDAY AND DRAW CLOSER TO
THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...

TODAY...LOW LVL SW/S FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH FL WILL KEEP A
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION AGAIN TODAY. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND WEAK SFC LOW NEAR THE ERN FL BIG BEND WILL DRIFT SLOWLY
WESTWARD WITH MID LAYER SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE H5 TROUGH AXIS NEAR THE
FAR WRN FL PANHANDLE. GPS PWATS INDICATE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
AROUND 2.2-2.3 INCHES AT WEST PALM AND CLOSE TO TWO INCHES AT THE
CAPE...WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER VALUES ACROSS OUR NRN COUNTIES. MID LVL
H5 TEMPS TO -7 TO -8 AND FAVORABLE SW FLOW REGIME WITH IMPULSES
ALOFT AND MORNING SFC HEATING SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS SRN SECTIONS BY
MID DAY AND ACROSS NRN AREAS INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON. SHOULD SEE THE
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE DEVELOP AND PUSH INLAND WITH A CONCENTRATION
OF LATE AFTERNOON STORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH SOME ALSO NEAR THE
EAST COAST INTO THE EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO 2 TO
3 INCHES...GUSTY WINDS TO 50 MPH AND POSSIBLE SMALL HAIL ARE
EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. HIGHS WILL THE UPPER 80S TO
AROUND 90.

TONIGHT...SOUTHERLY LOW LVL FLOW AND DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP
CONVECTION GOING INTO THE EVENING AND THEN DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.
WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR STORM NEAR THE COAST INTO
THE LATE NIGHT HOURS AS LOW LVL FLOW VEERS TO SSE AND MODELS
INDICATING HEALTHY NOCTURNAL CONVECTION OVER THE ATLC WATERS. LOWS
IN THE 70S.

FRI-SAT...LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL SHIFT WESTWARD AND
WEAKEN ALONG LINGERING STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. LOW LEVEL WINDS
THEN VEER TO THE S/SE FRI AND E/SE SAT AS TS ERIKA IS FORECAST TO
BUILD NW TOWARD THE SE BAHAMAS. A MOIST AIRMASS WITH PW VALUES
AROUND 2 INCHES WILL CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS FRI ALONG THE INLAND MOVING SEA BREEZE WITH RAIN CHANCES 60-
70 PERCENT. THEN WITH INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW INTO SAT AND SOME
DRYING MOVING INTO FROM THE EAST...GREATEST RAIN CHANCES WILL EXIST
OVER THE INTERIOR. COOL TEMPS ALOFT AROUND -8 TO -9C AT 500MB WILL
CONTINUE A THREAT FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS EACH AFT. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S/AROUND 90 ALONG THE COAST TO LOW 90S OVER
THE INTERIOR.

SUN-WED...FORECAST CONTINUES TO LARGELY RELY ON THE TRACK AND
INTENSITY OF ERIKA FROM LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LATEST
NHC FORECAST FOR ERIKA HAS SHIFTED THE TRACK TO THE EAST MOVING
NORTHWARD JUST OFF THE COAST OF EAST CENTRAL FL SUN NIGHT INTO MON
AND REACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH. THIS ACTUALLY MATCHED CLOSE TO 00Z
GFS AND 12Z ECMWF SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER THE MORE RECENT 00Z ECMWF RUN
KEEPS ERIKA A LITTLE WEAKER WITH A MORE WESTWARD TRACK...MOVING
ONSHORE THE SE FL COAST. THIS IS A GOOD REMINDER THAT THERE REMAINS
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY AND RUN TO RUN MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH
TRACK/STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM FROM LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THEREFORE IT STILL VERY IMPORTANT FOR RESIDENTS AND VISITORS
TO EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND UPDATES
CONCERNING ERIKA.

&&

.AVIATION...DEEP MOISTURE AND SW FLOW AHEAD OF A TROUGH ALOFT WILL
ALLOW FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA TO DVLP ACROSS E CENTRAL
FL. HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO GROUPS IN THE AFTERNOON FOR ALL TERMINALS
WITH THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION OF STORMS EXPECTED FROM 19Z-23Z.
CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH BY LATE EVENING WITH A CHC FOR SHRA ALONG
CSTL TERMINALS FROM KMLB S OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...SOUTHERLY WINDS TO 10 KNOTS TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH SEAS 2-
3 FT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE WATERS MAINLY OFFSHORE THIS MORNING AND NEAR THE EAST
COAST AND INTRACOASTAL WATERS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.

FRI-SAT...S/SE FLOW FRI IS EXPECTED TO VEER TO THE E/SE BETWEEN WEAK
LINGERING FRONT TO THE NORTH AND TS ERIKA FORECAST TO APPROACH THE
SE BAHAMAS SAT. WINDS THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
BELOW 15 KNOTS WITH SEAS BUILDING UP TO 4 FEET OFFSHORE. ISO-SCT
OFFSHORE MOVING STORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE FRI FROM LATE MORNING
INTO THE AFT.

SUN-MON...FORECAST BECOMES LESS CERTAIN FOR LATE SUNDAY AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS IT WILL DEPEND ON TRACK AND INTENSITY OF ERIKA. THE
LATEST NHC FORECAST HAS SHIFTED THE TRACK MORE TOWARD THE EAST WITH
CENTER JUST OFF THE EAST CENTRAL FL COAST...STRENGTHENING TO A CAT 1
HURRICANE. THIS FORECAST WOULD LEAD TO QUICKLY DETERIORATING MARINE
CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS SUN NIGHT INTO MON. HOWEVER THERE IS
STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM THIS FAR OUT SO IT IS
IMPORTANT CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND UPDATES
CONCERNING ERIKA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  88  73  89  75 /  60  40  60  40
MCO  90  73  91  74 /  70  40  70  40
MLB  89  72  88  76 /  70  50  60  40
VRB  89  71  89  75 /  60  50  60  40
LEE  90  75  91  76 /  70  40  70  30
SFB  90  73  92  75 /  60  40  60  40
ORL  90  74  91  76 /  70  40  60  40
FPR  89  72  90  75 /  70  50  60  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...VOLKMER
LONG TERM....WEITLICH





000
FXUS62 KMLB 270803
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
402 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...HIGH RAIN CHANCES TODAY AND FRIDAY...
...ERIKA FORECAST TO IMPACT THE NW BAHAMAS SUNDAY AND DRAW CLOSER TO
THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...

TODAY...LOW LVL SW/S FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH FL WILL KEEP A
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION AGAIN TODAY. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND WEAK SFC LOW NEAR THE ERN FL BIG BEND WILL DRIFT SLOWLY
WESTWARD WITH MID LAYER SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE H5 TROUGH AXIS NEAR THE
FAR WRN FL PANHANDLE. GPS PWATS INDICATE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
AROUND 2.2-2.3 INCHES AT WEST PALM AND CLOSE TO TWO INCHES AT THE
CAPE...WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER VALUES ACROSS OUR NRN COUNTIES. MID LVL
H5 TEMPS TO -7 TO -8 AND FAVORABLE SW FLOW REGIME WITH IMPULSES
ALOFT AND MORNING SFC HEATING SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS SRN SECTIONS BY
MID DAY AND ACROSS NRN AREAS INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON. SHOULD SEE THE
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE DEVELOP AND PUSH INLAND WITH A CONCENTRATION
OF LATE AFTERNOON STORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH SOME ALSO NEAR THE
EAST COAST INTO THE EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO 2 TO
3 INCHES...GUSTY WINDS TO 50 MPH AND POSSIBLE SMALL HAIL ARE
EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. HIGHS WILL THE UPPER 80S TO
AROUND 90.

TONIGHT...SOUTHERLY LOW LVL FLOW AND DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP
CONVECTION GOING INTO THE EVENING AND THEN DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.
WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR STORM NEAR THE COAST INTO
THE LATE NIGHT HOURS AS LOW LVL FLOW VEERS TO SSE AND MODELS
INDICATING HEALTHY NOCTURNAL CONVECTION OVER THE ATLC WATERS. LOWS
IN THE 70S.

FRI-SAT...LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL SHIFT WESTWARD AND
WEAKEN ALONG LINGERING STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. LOW LEVEL WINDS
THEN VEER TO THE S/SE FRI AND E/SE SAT AS TS ERIKA IS FORECAST TO
BUILD NW TOWARD THE SE BAHAMAS. A MOIST AIRMASS WITH PW VALUES
AROUND 2 INCHES WILL CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS FRI ALONG THE INLAND MOVING SEA BREEZE WITH RAIN CHANCES 60-
70 PERCENT. THEN WITH INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW INTO SAT AND SOME
DRYING MOVING INTO FROM THE EAST...GREATEST RAIN CHANCES WILL EXIST
OVER THE INTERIOR. COOL TEMPS ALOFT AROUND -8 TO -9C AT 500MB WILL
CONTINUE A THREAT FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS EACH AFT. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S/AROUND 90 ALONG THE COAST TO LOW 90S OVER
THE INTERIOR.

SUN-WED...FORECAST CONTINUES TO LARGELY RELY ON THE TRACK AND
INTENSITY OF ERIKA FROM LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LATEST
NHC FORECAST FOR ERIKA HAS SHIFTED THE TRACK TO THE EAST MOVING
NORTHWARD JUST OFF THE COAST OF EAST CENTRAL FL SUN NIGHT INTO MON
AND REACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH. THIS ACTUALLY MATCHED CLOSE TO 00Z
GFS AND 12Z ECMWF SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER THE MORE RECENT 00Z ECMWF RUN
KEEPS ERIKA A LITTLE WEAKER WITH A MORE WESTWARD TRACK...MOVING
ONSHORE THE SE FL COAST. THIS IS A GOOD REMINDER THAT THERE REMAINS
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY AND RUN TO RUN MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH
TRACK/STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM FROM LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THEREFORE IT STILL VERY IMPORTANT FOR RESIDENTS AND VISITORS
TO EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND UPDATES
CONCERNING ERIKA.

&&

.AVIATION...DEEP MOISTURE AND SW FLOW AHEAD OF A TROUGH ALOFT WILL
ALLOW FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA TO DVLP ACROSS E CENTRAL
FL. HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO GROUPS IN THE AFTERNOON FOR ALL TERMINALS
WITH THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION OF STORMS EXPECTED FROM 19Z-23Z.
CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH BY LATE EVENING WITH A CHC FOR SHRA ALONG
CSTL TERMINALS FROM KMLB S OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...SOUTHERLY WINDS TO 10 KNOTS TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH SEAS 2-
3 FT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE WATERS MAINLY OFFSHORE THIS MORNING AND NEAR THE EAST
COAST AND INTRACOASTAL WATERS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.

FRI-SAT...S/SE FLOW FRI IS EXPECTED TO VEER TO THE E/SE BETWEEN WEAK
LINGERING FRONT TO THE NORTH AND TS ERIKA FORECAST TO APPROACH THE
SE BAHAMAS SAT. WINDS THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
BELOW 15 KNOTS WITH SEAS BUILDING UP TO 4 FEET OFFSHORE. ISO-SCT
OFFSHORE MOVING STORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE FRI FROM LATE MORNING
INTO THE AFT.

SUN-MON...FORECAST BECOMES LESS CERTAIN FOR LATE SUNDAY AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS IT WILL DEPEND ON TRACK AND INTENSITY OF ERIKA. THE
LATEST NHC FORECAST HAS SHIFTED THE TRACK MORE TOWARD THE EAST WITH
CENTER JUST OFF THE EAST CENTRAL FL COAST...STRENGTHENING TO A CAT 1
HURRICANE. THIS FORECAST WOULD LEAD TO QUICKLY DETERIORATING MARINE
CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS SUN NIGHT INTO MON. HOWEVER THERE IS
STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM THIS FAR OUT SO IT IS
IMPORTANT CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND UPDATES
CONCERNING ERIKA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  88  73  89  75 /  60  40  60  40
MCO  90  73  91  74 /  70  40  70  40
MLB  89  72  88  76 /  70  50  60  40
VRB  89  71  89  75 /  60  50  60  40
LEE  90  75  91  76 /  70  40  70  30
SFB  90  73  92  75 /  60  40  60  40
ORL  90  74  91  76 /  70  40  60  40
FPR  89  72  90  75 /  70  50  60  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...VOLKMER
LONG TERM....WEITLICH




000
FXUS62 KMLB 270130
AFDMLB

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
921 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...A LATE AUGUST COLD FRONT HAS DRIVEN INTO THE FL
PANHANDLE WITH DEWPOINT READINGS IN THE HIGHER 50S IN SOME SPOTS OF
THE NRN FL PANHANDLE ATTM. THE FEATURE TO THE NORTH HAS AIDED IN
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS OVER THE LOCAL AREA AS ROBUST AFTERNOON
CONVECTION IS FINALLY DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. IT IS THOUGHT THE
PRESENCE OF A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF LIGHTNING TODAY WAS DUE TO MID
LEVEL DRYING AND AN EFFICIENT PRODUCTION AND LOFTING OF MIXED PHASE
PRECIPITATION. FLOODING OCCURRED IN SOME AREAS DUE TO VERY SLOW
MOVEMENT OF STORMS.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH AROUND
MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY SOUTH NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND A FORECAST
UPDATE WL OCCUR AROUND 11 PM WITH RELEASE OF THE LATEST ERICA
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION... ISOLD SHRA WITH MVFR CONDS WL BECOME VFR AREAWIDE AFT
27/04Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH AROUND 27/17Z.

&&

.MARINE... ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY NEAR THE
GULFSTREAM OVERNIGHT...OTHERWISE WINDS AROUND 10 TO 12 KT AND SEAS 2
FT OR LESS ALONG THE COAST AND 2 TO 3 FEET OFFSHORE.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

JP/MB





000
FXUS62 KMLB 270130
AFDMLB

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
921 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...A LATE AUGUST COLD FRONT HAS DRIVEN INTO THE FL
PANHANDLE WITH DEWPOINT READINGS IN THE HIGHER 50S IN SOME SPOTS OF
THE NRN FL PANHANDLE ATTM. THE FEATURE TO THE NORTH HAS AIDED IN
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS OVER THE LOCAL AREA AS ROBUST AFTERNOON
CONVECTION IS FINALLY DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. IT IS THOUGHT THE
PRESENCE OF A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF LIGHTNING TODAY WAS DUE TO MID
LEVEL DRYING AND AN EFFICIENT PRODUCTION AND LOFTING OF MIXED PHASE
PRECIPITATION. FLOODING OCCURRED IN SOME AREAS DUE TO VERY SLOW
MOVEMENT OF STORMS.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH AROUND
MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY SOUTH NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND A FORECAST
UPDATE WL OCCUR AROUND 11 PM WITH RELEASE OF THE LATEST ERICA
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION... ISOLD SHRA WITH MVFR CONDS WL BECOME VFR AREAWIDE AFT
27/04Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH AROUND 27/17Z.

&&

.MARINE... ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY NEAR THE
GULFSTREAM OVERNIGHT...OTHERWISE WINDS AROUND 10 TO 12 KT AND SEAS 2
FT OR LESS ALONG THE COAST AND 2 TO 3 FEET OFFSHORE.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

JP/MB




000
FXUS62 KMLB 270121
AFDMLB

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
921 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...A LATE AUGUST COLD FRONT HAS DRIVEN INTO THE FL
PANHANDLE WITH DEWPOINT READINGS IN THE HIGHER 50S IN SOME SPOTS OF
THE NRN FL PANHANDLE ATTM. THE FEATURE TO THE NORTH HAS AIDED IN
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS OVER THE LOCAL AREA AS ROBUST AFTERNOON
CONVECTION IS FINALLY DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. IT IS THOUGHT THE
PRESENCE OF A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF LIGHTNING TODAY WAS DUE TO MID
LEVEL DRYING AND AN EFFICIENT PRODUCTION AND LOFTING OF MIXED PHASE
PRECIPITATION. FLOODING OCCURRED IN SOME AREAS DUE TO VERY SLOW
MOVEMENT OF STORMS.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH AROUND
MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY SOUTH NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND A FORECAST
UPDATE WL OCCUR AROUND 11 AM WITH RELEASE OF THE LATEST ERICA
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION... ISOLD SHRA WITH MVFR CONDS WL BECOME VFR AREAWIDE AFT
27/04Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH AROUND 27/17Z.

&&

.MARINE... ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY NEAR THE
GULFSTREAM OVERNIGHT...OTHERWISE WINDS AROUND 10 TO 12 KT AND SEAS 2
FT OR LESS ALONG THE COAST AND 2 TO 3 FEET OFFSHORE.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

JP/MB




000
FXUS62 KMLB 270121
AFDMLB

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
921 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...A LATE AUGUST COLD FRONT HAS DRIVEN INTO THE FL
PANHANDLE WITH DEWPOINT READINGS IN THE HIGHER 50S IN SOME SPOTS OF
THE NRN FL PANHANDLE ATTM. THE FEATURE TO THE NORTH HAS AIDED IN
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS OVER THE LOCAL AREA AS ROBUST AFTERNOON
CONVECTION IS FINALLY DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. IT IS THOUGHT THE
PRESENCE OF A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF LIGHTNING TODAY WAS DUE TO MID
LEVEL DRYING AND AN EFFICIENT PRODUCTION AND LOFTING OF MIXED PHASE
PRECIPITATION. FLOODING OCCURRED IN SOME AREAS DUE TO VERY SLOW
MOVEMENT OF STORMS.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH AROUND
MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY SOUTH NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND A FORECAST
UPDATE WL OCCUR AROUND 11 AM WITH RELEASE OF THE LATEST ERICA
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION... ISOLD SHRA WITH MVFR CONDS WL BECOME VFR AREAWIDE AFT
27/04Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH AROUND 27/17Z.

&&

.MARINE... ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY NEAR THE
GULFSTREAM OVERNIGHT...OTHERWISE WINDS AROUND 10 TO 12 KT AND SEAS 2
FT OR LESS ALONG THE COAST AND 2 TO 3 FEET OFFSHORE.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

JP/MB




000
FXUS62 KMLB 270121
AFDMLB

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
921 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...A LATE AUGUST COLD FRONT HAS DRIVEN INTO THE FL
PANHANDLE WITH DEWPOINT READINGS IN THE HIGHER 50S IN SOME SPOTS OF
THE NRN FL PANHANDLE ATTM. THE FEATURE TO THE NORTH HAS AIDED IN
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS OVER THE LOCAL AREA AS ROBUST AFTERNOON
CONVECTION IS FINALLY DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. IT IS THOUGHT THE
PRESENCE OF A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF LIGHTNING TODAY WAS DUE TO MID
LEVEL DRYING AND AN EFFICIENT PRODUCTION AND LOFTING OF MIXED PHASE
PRECIPITATION. FLOODING OCCURRED IN SOME AREAS DUE TO VERY SLOW
MOVEMENT OF STORMS.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH AROUND
MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY SOUTH NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND A FORECAST
UPDATE WL OCCUR AROUND 11 AM WITH RELEASE OF THE LATEST ERICA
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION... ISOLD SHRA WITH MVFR CONDS WL BECOME VFR AREAWIDE AFT
27/04Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH AROUND 27/17Z.

&&

.MARINE... ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY NEAR THE
GULFSTREAM OVERNIGHT...OTHERWISE WINDS AROUND 10 TO 12 KT AND SEAS 2
FT OR LESS ALONG THE COAST AND 2 TO 3 FEET OFFSHORE.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

JP/MB





000
FXUS62 KMLB 261940
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
340 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...HIGH MID TO LATE WEEK RAIN CHANCES...
...ERIKA FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE BAHAMAS THIS WEEKEND...

REST OF TODAY/TONIGHT...DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW
ARE COMBINING TO PRODUCE HIGHER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING
STORMS OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS. EXPECT
COVERAGE TO MAX OUT BEFORE SUNSET AS BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS
INCREASE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND FOCUS OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE PENINSULA. AS ADVERTISED...TEMPS ALOFT HAVE COOLED TO
AROUND -7C AT 500MB...ALLOWING STORMS TO HAVE A LITTLE MORE
CONVECTIVE VIGOR. WILL WATCH FOR GUSTY WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME
SMALL HAIL IN ANY OF TODAYS STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. CONVECTION
WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN AFTER SUNSET WITH PRIMARILY ANVIL DEBRIS
RAIN EXPECT THROUGH 10 PM.

THURSDAY/FRIDAY...DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE CWA WITH SLIGHT
CHANGES TO THE LOCAL WIND FIELD AS LOW PRESSURE WEAKENS TO THE
NORTH OF THE STATE. SURFACE WINDS REMAIN RATHER WEAK AND SHIFT
FROM S/SW TO S/SE BY FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL JET OVER THE EAST COAST
PROVIDES SOME LIFT ALOFT AND HELPS TO KEEP POPS HIGH THROUGH THE
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR. CARRYING 60-70 PERCENT
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

SATURDAY-TUESDAY...(PREVIOUS DISCUSSION WITH 12Z MODIFICATIONS)...
SAT-TUE...FORECAST BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN AS WE HEAD LATER INTO THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS IT WILL DEPEND CONSIDERABLY ON THE
TRACK AND INTENSITY OF TC ERIKA. LATEST NHC FORECAST HAS TROPICAL
STORM ERIKA TRACKING NORTHWEST FROM THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
SATURDAY MORNING INTO THE BAHAMAS SUNDAY...GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING
INTO A CAT 1 HURRICANE. HOWEVER IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT THIS IS
STILL 5 DAYS OUT WITH A RANGE OF MODEL INTENSITIES EXISTING WITH
THIS SYSTEM.

SOME DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH THE 26/12Z FORECAST MODEL SUITE.
THE GFS AND EUROPEAN BOTH TRENDED MORE TO THE RIGHT WITH THE
SYSTEM...BRINGING THE SYSTEM CLOSER TO CENTRAL FLORIDA. IN
FACT...THE 12Z EURO KEEPS THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM OFF THE EAST
COAST OF FLORIDA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. IT IS VERY IMPORTANT
FOR RESIDENTS AND VISITORS TO EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA TO CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND UPDATES CONCERNING ERIKA FOR LATE
IN THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
COVERAGE OF TSRA/SHRA WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. FOCUS WILL SHIFT AWAY FROM COASTAL TERMINALS AND
TOWARDS THE INTERIOR AS AFTERNOON CONTINUES. LINGERING -RA/RA
EXPECTED IN ANVIL/DEBRIS RAIN AFTER SUNSET BEFORE VFR AND LIGHT
WINDS COMMENCE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...FLOW REMAINS SOUTH/SOUTHWEST OUTSIDE OF DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION NEAR THE COAST. THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING CLOSE TO THE COAST COULD PUSH OVER THE INTRACOASTAL OR
IMMEDIATE ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING. SEAS 2 FEET.

THU-FRI (PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)...RELATIVELY LIGHT S/SE
FLOW...AROUND 5-10KTS...EXPECTED THU WITH WEAK LOW ALONG STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXISTING NORTH OF THE AREA. WINDS STRENGTHEN TO
10-15 KTS INTO THU NIGHT BEFORE DECREASING AGAIN INTO FRI AROUND
10 KNOTS OUT OF THE E/SE AS LOW TO THE NORTH WEAKENS AND SHIFTS
WEST. SEAS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 2-4 FEET.

WEEKEND...E/SE FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE WATERS SLIGHTLY SAT AS
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS
WITH SWELLS INCREASING WAVE HEIGHTS TO 4-5 FEET.

FORECAST THEN BECOMES MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN INTO THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEKEND AS IT WILL DEPEND LARGELY ON THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF
ERIKA. THE LATEST NHC FORECAST HAS THE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE
BAHAMAS SUNDAY AND GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING INTO A CAT 1 HURRICANE.
HOWEVER MODEL INTENSITY AND TRACK THIS FAR OUT VARIES SIGNIFICANTLY.
IT IS IMPORTANT TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND
UPDATES CONCERNING ERIKA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  74  89  73  89 /  40  60  40  50
MCO  75  90  74  93 /  30  70  40  60
MLB  74  88  73  91 /  40  70  50  50
VRB  74  89  72  90 /  40  70  40  50
LEE  76  91  75  92 /  30  70  30  60
SFB  75  90  74  93 /  30  70  40  60
ORL  76  90  74  93 /  30  70  40  60
FPR  74  89  73  91 /  40  70  40  50

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

FORECASTS...ULRICH
AVIATION/IMPACT WEATHER/RADAR....LASCODY




000
FXUS62 KMLB 261940
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
340 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...HIGH MID TO LATE WEEK RAIN CHANCES...
...ERIKA FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE BAHAMAS THIS WEEKEND...

REST OF TODAY/TONIGHT...DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW
ARE COMBINING TO PRODUCE HIGHER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING
STORMS OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS. EXPECT
COVERAGE TO MAX OUT BEFORE SUNSET AS BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS
INCREASE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND FOCUS OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE PENINSULA. AS ADVERTISED...TEMPS ALOFT HAVE COOLED TO
AROUND -7C AT 500MB...ALLOWING STORMS TO HAVE A LITTLE MORE
CONVECTIVE VIGOR. WILL WATCH FOR GUSTY WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME
SMALL HAIL IN ANY OF TODAYS STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. CONVECTION
WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN AFTER SUNSET WITH PRIMARILY ANVIL DEBRIS
RAIN EXPECT THROUGH 10 PM.

THURSDAY/FRIDAY...DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE CWA WITH SLIGHT
CHANGES TO THE LOCAL WIND FIELD AS LOW PRESSURE WEAKENS TO THE
NORTH OF THE STATE. SURFACE WINDS REMAIN RATHER WEAK AND SHIFT
FROM S/SW TO S/SE BY FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL JET OVER THE EAST COAST
PROVIDES SOME LIFT ALOFT AND HELPS TO KEEP POPS HIGH THROUGH THE
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR. CARRYING 60-70 PERCENT
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

SATURDAY-TUESDAY...(PREVIOUS DISCUSSION WITH 12Z MODIFICATIONS)...
SAT-TUE...FORECAST BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN AS WE HEAD LATER INTO THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS IT WILL DEPEND CONSIDERABLY ON THE
TRACK AND INTENSITY OF TC ERIKA. LATEST NHC FORECAST HAS TROPICAL
STORM ERIKA TRACKING NORTHWEST FROM THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
SATURDAY MORNING INTO THE BAHAMAS SUNDAY...GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING
INTO A CAT 1 HURRICANE. HOWEVER IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT THIS IS
STILL 5 DAYS OUT WITH A RANGE OF MODEL INTENSITIES EXISTING WITH
THIS SYSTEM.

SOME DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH THE 26/12Z FORECAST MODEL SUITE.
THE GFS AND EUROPEAN BOTH TRENDED MORE TO THE RIGHT WITH THE
SYSTEM...BRINGING THE SYSTEM CLOSER TO CENTRAL FLORIDA. IN
FACT...THE 12Z EURO KEEPS THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM OFF THE EAST
COAST OF FLORIDA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. IT IS VERY IMPORTANT
FOR RESIDENTS AND VISITORS TO EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA TO CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND UPDATES CONCERNING ERIKA FOR LATE
IN THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
COVERAGE OF TSRA/SHRA WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. FOCUS WILL SHIFT AWAY FROM COASTAL TERMINALS AND
TOWARDS THE INTERIOR AS AFTERNOON CONTINUES. LINGERING -RA/RA
EXPECTED IN ANVIL/DEBRIS RAIN AFTER SUNSET BEFORE VFR AND LIGHT
WINDS COMMENCE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...FLOW REMAINS SOUTH/SOUTHWEST OUTSIDE OF DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION NEAR THE COAST. THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING CLOSE TO THE COAST COULD PUSH OVER THE INTRACOASTAL OR
IMMEDIATE ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING. SEAS 2 FEET.

THU-FRI (PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)...RELATIVELY LIGHT S/SE
FLOW...AROUND 5-10KTS...EXPECTED THU WITH WEAK LOW ALONG STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXISTING NORTH OF THE AREA. WINDS STRENGTHEN TO
10-15 KTS INTO THU NIGHT BEFORE DECREASING AGAIN INTO FRI AROUND
10 KNOTS OUT OF THE E/SE AS LOW TO THE NORTH WEAKENS AND SHIFTS
WEST. SEAS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 2-4 FEET.

WEEKEND...E/SE FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE WATERS SLIGHTLY SAT AS
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS
WITH SWELLS INCREASING WAVE HEIGHTS TO 4-5 FEET.

FORECAST THEN BECOMES MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN INTO THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEKEND AS IT WILL DEPEND LARGELY ON THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF
ERIKA. THE LATEST NHC FORECAST HAS THE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE
BAHAMAS SUNDAY AND GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING INTO A CAT 1 HURRICANE.
HOWEVER MODEL INTENSITY AND TRACK THIS FAR OUT VARIES SIGNIFICANTLY.
IT IS IMPORTANT TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND
UPDATES CONCERNING ERIKA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  74  89  73  89 /  40  60  40  50
MCO  75  90  74  93 /  30  70  40  60
MLB  74  88  73  91 /  40  70  50  50
VRB  74  89  72  90 /  40  70  40  50
LEE  76  91  75  92 /  30  70  30  60
SFB  75  90  74  93 /  30  70  40  60
ORL  76  90  74  93 /  30  70  40  60
FPR  74  89  73  91 /  40  70  40  50

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

FORECASTS...ULRICH
AVIATION/IMPACT WEATHER/RADAR....LASCODY





000
FXUS62 KMLB 261940
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
340 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...HIGH MID TO LATE WEEK RAIN CHANCES...
...ERIKA FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE BAHAMAS THIS WEEKEND...

REST OF TODAY/TONIGHT...DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW
ARE COMBINING TO PRODUCE HIGHER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING
STORMS OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS. EXPECT
COVERAGE TO MAX OUT BEFORE SUNSET AS BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS
INCREASE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND FOCUS OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE PENINSULA. AS ADVERTISED...TEMPS ALOFT HAVE COOLED TO
AROUND -7C AT 500MB...ALLOWING STORMS TO HAVE A LITTLE MORE
CONVECTIVE VIGOR. WILL WATCH FOR GUSTY WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME
SMALL HAIL IN ANY OF TODAYS STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. CONVECTION
WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN AFTER SUNSET WITH PRIMARILY ANVIL DEBRIS
RAIN EXPECT THROUGH 10 PM.

THURSDAY/FRIDAY...DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE CWA WITH SLIGHT
CHANGES TO THE LOCAL WIND FIELD AS LOW PRESSURE WEAKENS TO THE
NORTH OF THE STATE. SURFACE WINDS REMAIN RATHER WEAK AND SHIFT
FROM S/SW TO S/SE BY FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL JET OVER THE EAST COAST
PROVIDES SOME LIFT ALOFT AND HELPS TO KEEP POPS HIGH THROUGH THE
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR. CARRYING 60-70 PERCENT
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

SATURDAY-TUESDAY...(PREVIOUS DISCUSSION WITH 12Z MODIFICATIONS)...
SAT-TUE...FORECAST BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN AS WE HEAD LATER INTO THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS IT WILL DEPEND CONSIDERABLY ON THE
TRACK AND INTENSITY OF TC ERIKA. LATEST NHC FORECAST HAS TROPICAL
STORM ERIKA TRACKING NORTHWEST FROM THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
SATURDAY MORNING INTO THE BAHAMAS SUNDAY...GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING
INTO A CAT 1 HURRICANE. HOWEVER IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT THIS IS
STILL 5 DAYS OUT WITH A RANGE OF MODEL INTENSITIES EXISTING WITH
THIS SYSTEM.

SOME DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH THE 26/12Z FORECAST MODEL SUITE.
THE GFS AND EUROPEAN BOTH TRENDED MORE TO THE RIGHT WITH THE
SYSTEM...BRINGING THE SYSTEM CLOSER TO CENTRAL FLORIDA. IN
FACT...THE 12Z EURO KEEPS THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM OFF THE EAST
COAST OF FLORIDA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. IT IS VERY IMPORTANT
FOR RESIDENTS AND VISITORS TO EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA TO CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND UPDATES CONCERNING ERIKA FOR LATE
IN THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
COVERAGE OF TSRA/SHRA WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. FOCUS WILL SHIFT AWAY FROM COASTAL TERMINALS AND
TOWARDS THE INTERIOR AS AFTERNOON CONTINUES. LINGERING -RA/RA
EXPECTED IN ANVIL/DEBRIS RAIN AFTER SUNSET BEFORE VFR AND LIGHT
WINDS COMMENCE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...FLOW REMAINS SOUTH/SOUTHWEST OUTSIDE OF DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION NEAR THE COAST. THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING CLOSE TO THE COAST COULD PUSH OVER THE INTRACOASTAL OR
IMMEDIATE ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING. SEAS 2 FEET.

THU-FRI (PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)...RELATIVELY LIGHT S/SE
FLOW...AROUND 5-10KTS...EXPECTED THU WITH WEAK LOW ALONG STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXISTING NORTH OF THE AREA. WINDS STRENGTHEN TO
10-15 KTS INTO THU NIGHT BEFORE DECREASING AGAIN INTO FRI AROUND
10 KNOTS OUT OF THE E/SE AS LOW TO THE NORTH WEAKENS AND SHIFTS
WEST. SEAS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 2-4 FEET.

WEEKEND...E/SE FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE WATERS SLIGHTLY SAT AS
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS
WITH SWELLS INCREASING WAVE HEIGHTS TO 4-5 FEET.

FORECAST THEN BECOMES MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN INTO THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEKEND AS IT WILL DEPEND LARGELY ON THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF
ERIKA. THE LATEST NHC FORECAST HAS THE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE
BAHAMAS SUNDAY AND GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING INTO A CAT 1 HURRICANE.
HOWEVER MODEL INTENSITY AND TRACK THIS FAR OUT VARIES SIGNIFICANTLY.
IT IS IMPORTANT TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND
UPDATES CONCERNING ERIKA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  74  89  73  89 /  40  60  40  50
MCO  75  90  74  93 /  30  70  40  60
MLB  74  88  73  91 /  40  70  50  50
VRB  74  89  72  90 /  40  70  40  50
LEE  76  91  75  92 /  30  70  30  60
SFB  75  90  74  93 /  30  70  40  60
ORL  76  90  74  93 /  30  70  40  60
FPR  74  89  73  91 /  40  70  40  50

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

FORECASTS...ULRICH
AVIATION/IMPACT WEATHER/RADAR....LASCODY





000
FXUS62 KMLB 261940
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
340 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...HIGH MID TO LATE WEEK RAIN CHANCES...
...ERIKA FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE BAHAMAS THIS WEEKEND...

REST OF TODAY/TONIGHT...DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW
ARE COMBINING TO PRODUCE HIGHER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING
STORMS OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS. EXPECT
COVERAGE TO MAX OUT BEFORE SUNSET AS BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS
INCREASE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND FOCUS OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE PENINSULA. AS ADVERTISED...TEMPS ALOFT HAVE COOLED TO
AROUND -7C AT 500MB...ALLOWING STORMS TO HAVE A LITTLE MORE
CONVECTIVE VIGOR. WILL WATCH FOR GUSTY WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME
SMALL HAIL IN ANY OF TODAYS STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. CONVECTION
WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN AFTER SUNSET WITH PRIMARILY ANVIL DEBRIS
RAIN EXPECT THROUGH 10 PM.

THURSDAY/FRIDAY...DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE CWA WITH SLIGHT
CHANGES TO THE LOCAL WIND FIELD AS LOW PRESSURE WEAKENS TO THE
NORTH OF THE STATE. SURFACE WINDS REMAIN RATHER WEAK AND SHIFT
FROM S/SW TO S/SE BY FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL JET OVER THE EAST COAST
PROVIDES SOME LIFT ALOFT AND HELPS TO KEEP POPS HIGH THROUGH THE
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR. CARRYING 60-70 PERCENT
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

SATURDAY-TUESDAY...(PREVIOUS DISCUSSION WITH 12Z MODIFICATIONS)...
SAT-TUE...FORECAST BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN AS WE HEAD LATER INTO THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS IT WILL DEPEND CONSIDERABLY ON THE
TRACK AND INTENSITY OF TC ERIKA. LATEST NHC FORECAST HAS TROPICAL
STORM ERIKA TRACKING NORTHWEST FROM THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
SATURDAY MORNING INTO THE BAHAMAS SUNDAY...GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING
INTO A CAT 1 HURRICANE. HOWEVER IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT THIS IS
STILL 5 DAYS OUT WITH A RANGE OF MODEL INTENSITIES EXISTING WITH
THIS SYSTEM.

SOME DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH THE 26/12Z FORECAST MODEL SUITE.
THE GFS AND EUROPEAN BOTH TRENDED MORE TO THE RIGHT WITH THE
SYSTEM...BRINGING THE SYSTEM CLOSER TO CENTRAL FLORIDA. IN
FACT...THE 12Z EURO KEEPS THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM OFF THE EAST
COAST OF FLORIDA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. IT IS VERY IMPORTANT
FOR RESIDENTS AND VISITORS TO EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA TO CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND UPDATES CONCERNING ERIKA FOR LATE
IN THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
COVERAGE OF TSRA/SHRA WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. FOCUS WILL SHIFT AWAY FROM COASTAL TERMINALS AND
TOWARDS THE INTERIOR AS AFTERNOON CONTINUES. LINGERING -RA/RA
EXPECTED IN ANVIL/DEBRIS RAIN AFTER SUNSET BEFORE VFR AND LIGHT
WINDS COMMENCE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...FLOW REMAINS SOUTH/SOUTHWEST OUTSIDE OF DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION NEAR THE COAST. THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING CLOSE TO THE COAST COULD PUSH OVER THE INTRACOASTAL OR
IMMEDIATE ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING. SEAS 2 FEET.

THU-FRI (PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)...RELATIVELY LIGHT S/SE
FLOW...AROUND 5-10KTS...EXPECTED THU WITH WEAK LOW ALONG STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXISTING NORTH OF THE AREA. WINDS STRENGTHEN TO
10-15 KTS INTO THU NIGHT BEFORE DECREASING AGAIN INTO FRI AROUND
10 KNOTS OUT OF THE E/SE AS LOW TO THE NORTH WEAKENS AND SHIFTS
WEST. SEAS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 2-4 FEET.

WEEKEND...E/SE FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE WATERS SLIGHTLY SAT AS
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS
WITH SWELLS INCREASING WAVE HEIGHTS TO 4-5 FEET.

FORECAST THEN BECOMES MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN INTO THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEKEND AS IT WILL DEPEND LARGELY ON THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF
ERIKA. THE LATEST NHC FORECAST HAS THE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE
BAHAMAS SUNDAY AND GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING INTO A CAT 1 HURRICANE.
HOWEVER MODEL INTENSITY AND TRACK THIS FAR OUT VARIES SIGNIFICANTLY.
IT IS IMPORTANT TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND
UPDATES CONCERNING ERIKA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  74  89  73  89 /  40  60  40  50
MCO  75  90  74  93 /  30  70  40  60
MLB  74  88  73  91 /  40  70  50  50
VRB  74  89  72  90 /  40  70  40  50
LEE  76  91  75  92 /  30  70  30  60
SFB  75  90  74  93 /  30  70  40  60
ORL  76  90  74  93 /  30  70  40  60
FPR  74  89  73  91 /  40  70  40  50

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

FORECASTS...ULRICH
AVIATION/IMPACT WEATHER/RADAR....LASCODY




000
FXUS62 KMLB 261413
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1013 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

.UPDATE...

...HIGHER LIGHTNING STORM COVERAGE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...
...ERIKA FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE BAHAMAS THIS WEEKEND...

LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL RETROGRADE WESTWARD
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TODAY...KEEPING THE FORECAST AREA IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW. AT THE MOMENT...DEEPER MOISTURE WITH PWATS IN
EXCESS OF 2.0 INCHES RESIDES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.
SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD TAP SOME OF THAT HIGHER MOISTURE TO OUR
SOUTH AND MOISTEN THE COLUMN OVER THE REST OF THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES ALOFT REMAIN RATHER WARM WITH THIS MORNINGS XMR
SOUNDING REGISTERING -5.3C AT 500MB. LOCAL MODELLING SUGGESTS SOME
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MOVING OVERHEAD...PERHAPS BRINGING 500MB
TEMPS DOWN TO -6.5C/-7.0C LATER TODAY. WEAK DIVERGENCE ALOFT
CONTINUES WITH THE AXIS OF A 250MB (ALBEIT WEAK) 25-35 KNOT WIND
MAX SITTING OVER THE STATE. SUSPECT THESE FACTORS WILL COMBINE TO
PRODUCE HIGHER STORM COVERAGE OF THE FORECAST AREA COMPARED TO
RECENT DAYS. GIVEN THE BEST/DEEPEST MOISTURE RESIDES ACROSS
SOUTHERN AREAS...EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE HIGHEST (LIKELY POPS)
ACROSS THAT AREA...WITH SCATTERED POPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH.

REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. PLEASE SEE PREVIOUS
FORECAST DISCUSSION THAT COVERS ERIKA AND THE WEEKEND FORECAST
MORE IN DEPTH.

&&

.AVIATION...
BETTER COVERAGE OF TSRA EXPECTED ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA
TERMINALS COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS. ISOLATED TSRA/SHRA ALONG THE
COAST...ESPECIALLY KTIX TO KSUA...AS ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE MOVES
INLAND. BETTER CONVECTIVE CHANCES SHOULD BE BETWEEN 19Z-23Z ACROSS
E CENTRAL FL TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...SW WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME S/SE BY THIS AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS...ACROSS THE GULF
STREAM THIS MORNING AND ACTIVITY PUSHING TWD THE EAST COAST LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEAS 2-3 FT.

THU-FRI...RELATIVELY LIGHT S/SE FLOW...AROUND 5-10KTS...EXPECTED THU
WITH WEAK LOW ALONG STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXISTING NORTH OF THE
AREA. WINDS STRENGTHEN TO 10-15 KTS INTO THU NIGHT BEFORE DECREASING
AGAIN INTO FRI AROUND 10 KNOTS OUT OF THE E/SE AS LOW TO THE NORTH
WEAKENS AND SHIFTS WEST. SEAS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 2-4 FEET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  93  74  89  75 /  40  40  60  40
MCO  94  74  90  74 /  50  30  70  30
MLB  91  74  88  74 /  60  40  70  40
VRB  90  73  88  74 /  60  50  70  40
LEE  94  75  91  76 /  40  30  60  30
SFB  94  75  91  75 /  50  30  60  30
ORL  94  76  90  75 /  50  30  60  30
FPR  91  72  88  74 /  60  50  70  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

FORECASTS...ULRICH
IMPACT WEATHER/RADAR/AVIATION....LASCODY





000
FXUS62 KMLB 261413
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1013 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

.UPDATE...

...HIGHER LIGHTNING STORM COVERAGE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...
...ERIKA FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE BAHAMAS THIS WEEKEND...

LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL RETROGRADE WESTWARD
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TODAY...KEEPING THE FORECAST AREA IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW. AT THE MOMENT...DEEPER MOISTURE WITH PWATS IN
EXCESS OF 2.0 INCHES RESIDES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.
SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD TAP SOME OF THAT HIGHER MOISTURE TO OUR
SOUTH AND MOISTEN THE COLUMN OVER THE REST OF THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES ALOFT REMAIN RATHER WARM WITH THIS MORNINGS XMR
SOUNDING REGISTERING -5.3C AT 500MB. LOCAL MODELLING SUGGESTS SOME
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MOVING OVERHEAD...PERHAPS BRINGING 500MB
TEMPS DOWN TO -6.5C/-7.0C LATER TODAY. WEAK DIVERGENCE ALOFT
CONTINUES WITH THE AXIS OF A 250MB (ALBEIT WEAK) 25-35 KNOT WIND
MAX SITTING OVER THE STATE. SUSPECT THESE FACTORS WILL COMBINE TO
PRODUCE HIGHER STORM COVERAGE OF THE FORECAST AREA COMPARED TO
RECENT DAYS. GIVEN THE BEST/DEEPEST MOISTURE RESIDES ACROSS
SOUTHERN AREAS...EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE HIGHEST (LIKELY POPS)
ACROSS THAT AREA...WITH SCATTERED POPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH.

REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. PLEASE SEE PREVIOUS
FORECAST DISCUSSION THAT COVERS ERIKA AND THE WEEKEND FORECAST
MORE IN DEPTH.

&&

.AVIATION...
BETTER COVERAGE OF TSRA EXPECTED ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA
TERMINALS COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS. ISOLATED TSRA/SHRA ALONG THE
COAST...ESPECIALLY KTIX TO KSUA...AS ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE MOVES
INLAND. BETTER CONVECTIVE CHANCES SHOULD BE BETWEEN 19Z-23Z ACROSS
E CENTRAL FL TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...SW WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME S/SE BY THIS AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS...ACROSS THE GULF
STREAM THIS MORNING AND ACTIVITY PUSHING TWD THE EAST COAST LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEAS 2-3 FT.

THU-FRI...RELATIVELY LIGHT S/SE FLOW...AROUND 5-10KTS...EXPECTED THU
WITH WEAK LOW ALONG STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXISTING NORTH OF THE
AREA. WINDS STRENGTHEN TO 10-15 KTS INTO THU NIGHT BEFORE DECREASING
AGAIN INTO FRI AROUND 10 KNOTS OUT OF THE E/SE AS LOW TO THE NORTH
WEAKENS AND SHIFTS WEST. SEAS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 2-4 FEET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  93  74  89  75 /  40  40  60  40
MCO  94  74  90  74 /  50  30  70  30
MLB  91  74  88  74 /  60  40  70  40
VRB  90  73  88  74 /  60  50  70  40
LEE  94  75  91  76 /  40  30  60  30
SFB  94  75  91  75 /  50  30  60  30
ORL  94  76  90  75 /  50  30  60  30
FPR  91  72  88  74 /  60  50  70  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

FORECASTS...ULRICH
IMPACT WEATHER/RADAR/AVIATION....LASCODY




000
FXUS62 KMLB 261413
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1013 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

.UPDATE...

...HIGHER LIGHTNING STORM COVERAGE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...
...ERIKA FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE BAHAMAS THIS WEEKEND...

LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL RETROGRADE WESTWARD
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TODAY...KEEPING THE FORECAST AREA IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW. AT THE MOMENT...DEEPER MOISTURE WITH PWATS IN
EXCESS OF 2.0 INCHES RESIDES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.
SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD TAP SOME OF THAT HIGHER MOISTURE TO OUR
SOUTH AND MOISTEN THE COLUMN OVER THE REST OF THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES ALOFT REMAIN RATHER WARM WITH THIS MORNINGS XMR
SOUNDING REGISTERING -5.3C AT 500MB. LOCAL MODELLING SUGGESTS SOME
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MOVING OVERHEAD...PERHAPS BRINGING 500MB
TEMPS DOWN TO -6.5C/-7.0C LATER TODAY. WEAK DIVERGENCE ALOFT
CONTINUES WITH THE AXIS OF A 250MB (ALBEIT WEAK) 25-35 KNOT WIND
MAX SITTING OVER THE STATE. SUSPECT THESE FACTORS WILL COMBINE TO
PRODUCE HIGHER STORM COVERAGE OF THE FORECAST AREA COMPARED TO
RECENT DAYS. GIVEN THE BEST/DEEPEST MOISTURE RESIDES ACROSS
SOUTHERN AREAS...EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE HIGHEST (LIKELY POPS)
ACROSS THAT AREA...WITH SCATTERED POPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH.

REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. PLEASE SEE PREVIOUS
FORECAST DISCUSSION THAT COVERS ERIKA AND THE WEEKEND FORECAST
MORE IN DEPTH.

&&

.AVIATION...
BETTER COVERAGE OF TSRA EXPECTED ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA
TERMINALS COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS. ISOLATED TSRA/SHRA ALONG THE
COAST...ESPECIALLY KTIX TO KSUA...AS ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE MOVES
INLAND. BETTER CONVECTIVE CHANCES SHOULD BE BETWEEN 19Z-23Z ACROSS
E CENTRAL FL TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...SW WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME S/SE BY THIS AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS...ACROSS THE GULF
STREAM THIS MORNING AND ACTIVITY PUSHING TWD THE EAST COAST LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEAS 2-3 FT.

THU-FRI...RELATIVELY LIGHT S/SE FLOW...AROUND 5-10KTS...EXPECTED THU
WITH WEAK LOW ALONG STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXISTING NORTH OF THE
AREA. WINDS STRENGTHEN TO 10-15 KTS INTO THU NIGHT BEFORE DECREASING
AGAIN INTO FRI AROUND 10 KNOTS OUT OF THE E/SE AS LOW TO THE NORTH
WEAKENS AND SHIFTS WEST. SEAS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 2-4 FEET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  93  74  89  75 /  40  40  60  40
MCO  94  74  90  74 /  50  30  70  30
MLB  91  74  88  74 /  60  40  70  40
VRB  90  73  88  74 /  60  50  70  40
LEE  94  75  91  76 /  40  30  60  30
SFB  94  75  91  75 /  50  30  60  30
ORL  94  76  90  75 /  50  30  60  30
FPR  91  72  88  74 /  60  50  70  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

FORECASTS...ULRICH
IMPACT WEATHER/RADAR/AVIATION....LASCODY




000
FXUS62 KMLB 261413
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1013 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

.UPDATE...

...HIGHER LIGHTNING STORM COVERAGE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...
...ERIKA FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE BAHAMAS THIS WEEKEND...

LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL RETROGRADE WESTWARD
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TODAY...KEEPING THE FORECAST AREA IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW. AT THE MOMENT...DEEPER MOISTURE WITH PWATS IN
EXCESS OF 2.0 INCHES RESIDES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.
SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD TAP SOME OF THAT HIGHER MOISTURE TO OUR
SOUTH AND MOISTEN THE COLUMN OVER THE REST OF THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES ALOFT REMAIN RATHER WARM WITH THIS MORNINGS XMR
SOUNDING REGISTERING -5.3C AT 500MB. LOCAL MODELLING SUGGESTS SOME
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MOVING OVERHEAD...PERHAPS BRINGING 500MB
TEMPS DOWN TO -6.5C/-7.0C LATER TODAY. WEAK DIVERGENCE ALOFT
CONTINUES WITH THE AXIS OF A 250MB (ALBEIT WEAK) 25-35 KNOT WIND
MAX SITTING OVER THE STATE. SUSPECT THESE FACTORS WILL COMBINE TO
PRODUCE HIGHER STORM COVERAGE OF THE FORECAST AREA COMPARED TO
RECENT DAYS. GIVEN THE BEST/DEEPEST MOISTURE RESIDES ACROSS
SOUTHERN AREAS...EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE HIGHEST (LIKELY POPS)
ACROSS THAT AREA...WITH SCATTERED POPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH.

REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. PLEASE SEE PREVIOUS
FORECAST DISCUSSION THAT COVERS ERIKA AND THE WEEKEND FORECAST
MORE IN DEPTH.

&&

.AVIATION...
BETTER COVERAGE OF TSRA EXPECTED ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA
TERMINALS COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS. ISOLATED TSRA/SHRA ALONG THE
COAST...ESPECIALLY KTIX TO KSUA...AS ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE MOVES
INLAND. BETTER CONVECTIVE CHANCES SHOULD BE BETWEEN 19Z-23Z ACROSS
E CENTRAL FL TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...SW WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME S/SE BY THIS AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS...ACROSS THE GULF
STREAM THIS MORNING AND ACTIVITY PUSHING TWD THE EAST COAST LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEAS 2-3 FT.

THU-FRI...RELATIVELY LIGHT S/SE FLOW...AROUND 5-10KTS...EXPECTED THU
WITH WEAK LOW ALONG STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXISTING NORTH OF THE
AREA. WINDS STRENGTHEN TO 10-15 KTS INTO THU NIGHT BEFORE DECREASING
AGAIN INTO FRI AROUND 10 KNOTS OUT OF THE E/SE AS LOW TO THE NORTH
WEAKENS AND SHIFTS WEST. SEAS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 2-4 FEET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  93  74  89  75 /  40  40  60  40
MCO  94  74  90  74 /  50  30  70  30
MLB  91  74  88  74 /  60  40  70  40
VRB  90  73  88  74 /  60  50  70  40
LEE  94  75  91  76 /  40  30  60  30
SFB  94  75  91  75 /  50  30  60  30
ORL  94  76  90  75 /  50  30  60  30
FPR  91  72  88  74 /  60  50  70  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

FORECASTS...ULRICH
IMPACT WEATHER/RADAR/AVIATION....LASCODY





    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities