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000
FXUS62 KMLB 190231
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1031 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.UPDATE...
DID A QUICK UPDATE TO KEEP LIKELY RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE TREASURE
COAST OVERNIGHT. THE HRRR AND WRF MODEL RUNS AS WELL AS THE
LATEST NAM CONTINUE TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR CONTINUED
REDEVELOPMENT AND TRAINING OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THIS AREA
INTO LATE TONIGHT. AS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY THIS COULD LEAD TO
LOCALIZED FLOODING ESPECIALLY IF ANY STRONGER STORMS DEVELOP.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

REST OF TONIGHT...TRENDS BASED ON LATEST RADAR IMAGERY HAVE
LINGERING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY PUSHING OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN
BREVARD COUNTY AND THE TREASURE COAST INTO LATE EVENING. HOWEVER
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A STORM OR TWO COULD STILL REDEVELOP
AS MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT OVER THE EASTERN GULF. WHILE THE THREAT FOR STRONGER
STORMS IS DIMINISHING THERE REMAINS A LOW POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IF TRAINING OF SHOWERS/STORMS DO OCCUR...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE TREASURE COAST. CLOUDY SKIES TO PERSIST WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING FAIRLY STEADY IF NOT DROPPING A FEW MORE
DEGREES INTO LATE TONIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER
60S...EXCEPT LOW 70S ALONG THE TREASURE COAST.

THIS WEEKEND...(PREVIOUS DISCUSSION) CLOSED DEEP LAYER LOW WILL
DRIFT EASTWARD ACROSS NORTH FL DURING THE DAY ON SAT...WITH THE
CENTER REACHING THE ATLC OCEAN AROUND 00Z/SUNSET. TONGUE OF DRIER
AIR WILL WRAP AROUND THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE LOW...LEAVING BETTER
MOISTURE CONFINED TO THE FAR NORTHERN CWA. AS THE LOW PULLS
AWAY...LINGERING MOISTURE WILL RETRACT INTO THE ATLC...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS SETTLING IN BEGINNING SUNDAY. MAIN CHANGE TO THE FCST
WAS TO REMOVE MENTION OF TS AS MEAN MOISTURE LOOKING A BIT
LIMITED...EVEN WITH COLD TEMPS ALOFT BENEATH THE UPPER LOW. FOR
SAT...MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S NORTH/CTRL TO L-M80S SOUTH WITH LOWS
IN THE 50S. ON SUNDAY...U70S NORTH HALF AND L80S SOUTH HALF WITH
LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS THROUGH LATE EVENING EXPECTED WITH TEMPO
REDUCTIONS TO MVFR IN ANY REDEVELOPING SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY
OVERNIGHT. MOS GUIDANCE SHOWS MORE PREDOMINANT MVFR CIGS MOVING
INTO THE REGION AFTER 08Z AND PERSISTING THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MORNING HOURS OVER NORTHERN TERMINALS TOMORROW. WILL LEAN TOWARD
THIS SOLUTION FOR NOW BUT WILL NEED TO BE REEXAMINED IN NEXT SET
OF TAF ISSUANCES.


&&

.MARINE...SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS EXPECTED
OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT WITH SEAS UP TO 7-8 FEET OFFSHORE. WILL
EXPAND SCA FOR THE ENTIRE OFFSHORE WATERS AND EXTEND TIME THROUGH
EARLY MORNING SATURDAY AS THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST.
&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR WATERS FROM
     FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO
     60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
     SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

WEITLICH/VOLKMER








000
FXUS62 KMLB 190103
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
903 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...

REST OF TONIGHT...TRENDS BASED ON LATEST RADAR IMAGERY HAVE
LINGERING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY PUSHING OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN
BREVARD COUNTY AND THE TREASURE COAST INTO LATE EVENING. HOWEVER
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A STORM OR TWO COULD STILL REDEVELOP
AS MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT OVER THE EASTERN GULF. WHILE THE THREAT FOR STRONGER
STORMS IS DIMINISHING THERE REMAINS A LOW POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IF TRAINING OF SHOWERS/STORMS DO OCCUR...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE TREASURE COAST. CLOUDY SKIES TO PERSIST WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING FAIRLY STEADY IF NOT DROPPING A FEW MORE
DEGREES INTO LATE TONIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER
60S...EXCEPT LOW 70S ALONG THE TREASURE COAST.

THIS WEEKEND...(PREVIOUS DISCUSSION) CLOSED DEEP LAYER LOW WILL
DRIFT EASTWARD ACROSS NORTH FL DURING THE DAY ON SAT...WITH THE
CENTER REACHING THE ATLC OCEAN AROUND 00Z/SUNSET. TONGUE OF DRIER
AIR WILL WRAP AROUND THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE LOW...LEAVING BETTER
MOISTURE CONFINED TO THE FAR NORTHERN CWA. AS THE LOW PULLS
AWAY...LINGERING MOISTURE WILL RETRACT INTO THE ATLC...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS SETTLING IN BEGINNING SUNDAY. MAIN CHANGE TO THE FCST
WAS TO REMOVE MENTION OF TS AS MEAN MOISTURE LOOKING A BIT
LIMITED...EVEN WITH COLD TEMPS ALOFT BENEATH THE UPPER LOW. FOR
SAT...MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S NORTH/CTRL TO L-M80S SOUTH WITH LOWS
IN THE 50S. ON SUNDAY...U70S NORTH HALF AND L80S SOUTH HALF WITH
LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS THROUGH LATE EVENING EXPECTED WITH TEMPO
REDUCTIONS TO MVFR IN ANY REDEVELOPING SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY
OVERNIGHT. MOS GUIDANCE SHOWS MORE PREDOMINANT MVFR CIGS MOVING
INTO THE REGION AFTER 08Z AND PERSISTING THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MORNING HOURS OVER NORTHERN TERMINALS TOMORROW. WILL LEAN TOWARD
THIS SOLUTION FOR NOW BUT WILL NEED TO BE REEXAMINED IN NEXT SET
OF TAF ISSUANCES.


&&

.MARINE...SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS EXPECTED
OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT WITH SEAS UP TO 7-8 FEET OFFSHORE. WILL
EXPAND SCA FOR THE ENTIRE OFFSHORE WATERS AND EXTEND TIME THROUGH
EARLY MORNING SATURDAY AS THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR WATERS FROM
     FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO
     60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
     SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

WEITLICH/VOLKMER








000
FXUS62 KMLB 181923
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
323 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...

...POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...

...HAZARDOUS BOATING THROUGH EASTER AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...

CURRENT-TONIGHT...DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN THE NORTHEAST
GULF OF MEXICO/FLORIDA BIG BEND AREA WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN
CENTRAL AND NORTH FLORIDA OVERNIGHT AND OFF THE GEORGIA COAST
SATURDAY MORNING. IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO A LINE OF STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL/HAS COME ASHORE THE WEST
CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST ROUGHLY BETWEEN HOMOSASSA SPRINGS AND SARASOTA
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND RACE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AT 30 TO 40 MPH.
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OVER 60 MPH...HEAVY
RAIN AND HAIL WILL ACROSS WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AND BRUSH NORTHWEST
LAKE COUNTY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

LATEST SHORT TERM MODELS...RUC AND HRRR 3KM...FORECAST SOUNDING
HODOGRAPHS AND WIND PROFILES FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA SUGGEST STRONG
GUSTS VS. SIGNIFICANT ROTATION THROUGH THE EVENING. THE LARGER SCALE
MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA OVERNIGHT AND CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA LATE SATURDAY.

PREVIOUS ZONES DISCUSSION

THIS WEEKEND...CLOSED DEEP LAYER LOW WILL DRIFT EASTWARD ACROSS
NORTH FL DURING THE DAY ON SAT...WITH THE CENTER REACHING THE ATLC
OCEAN AROUND 00Z/SUNSET. TONGUE OF DRIER AIR WILL WRAP AROUND THE
SOUTH SIDE OF THE LOW...LEAVING BETTER MOISTURE CONFINED TO THE
FAR NORTHERN CWA. AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY...LINGERING MOISTURE WILL
RETRACT INTO THE ATLC...WITH DRY CONDITIONS SETTLING IN BEGINNING
SUNDAY. MAIN CHANGE TO THE FCST WAS TO REMOVE MENTION OF TS AS
MEAN MOISTURE LOOKING A BIT LIMITED...EVEN WITH COLD TEMPS ALOFT
BENEATH THE UPPER LOW. FOR SAT...MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S NORTH/CTRL
TO L-M80S SOUTH WITH LOWS IN THE 50S. ON SUNDAY...U70S NORTH HALF
AND L80S SOUTH HALF WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S.

MON-THU...HIGH PRES SETTLES SWD ACROSS FL FROM THE SOUTHEAST MON
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING ATLC LOW. TAIL END OF NRN STREAM SHORT
WAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS FL TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED...WITH WEAK AND LIKELY
DRY COOL FRONTAL PASSAGE AS MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS FL AHEAD OF THE
FRONT LOOKS NEXT TO NIL. CONTINUED DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS MONDAY
RISING TO ABOUT A CATEGORY OR SO ABOVE NORMAL FROM TUE ONWARD.



&&

.AVIATION...THROUGH 19/00Z...PREVAILING VFR CIGS AND VSBY.
18/19Z-19/00Z...TEMPO IFR CIGS/VSBY WITH G40KT MAINLY NORTH OF
KDAB-KISM. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS VC KLEE POSSIBLE THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON.


&&

.MARINE...

CURRENT-THIS AFTERNOON...NOAA BUOYS 009/20NM EAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL
AND 010/120NM EAST OF NEW SMYRNA BEACH WERE RECORDING SOUTHEAST
WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND 6 TO 8 FOOT SEAS. THE TWO SCRIPPS BUOYS 4
AND 6 NM OFF PORT CANAVERAL AND FORT PIERCE INLET WERE RECORDING 4
TO 5 FOOT SEAS.

TONIGHT-SUNDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS TONIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS SATURDAY BECOMING
WEST NORTH TO SOUTH LATE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT SATURDAY AS THE
COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL EAST OF FLORIDA AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE GULF AND FLORIDA. WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND INCREASE TO
20 TO 25 KNOTS LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. SEAS TO 6 FEET THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON BUILDING TO 10 TO 12 FEET IN THE GULF STREAM SUNDAY
NIGHT.
 THIS MORNING...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR STRONG STORMS PUSHING
OFFSHORE BY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MON-TUE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO FL BEHIND THE ATLC LOW.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  68  71  58  76 /  60  30  20  10
MCO  68  77  57  80 /  60  30  20  10
MLB  70  80  59  79 /  60  30  20  10
VRB  71  81  58  77 /  60  30  10  10
LEE  66  76  56  79 /  60  30  20  10
SFB  68  77  56  78 /  60  30  20  10
ORL  68  76  58  78 /  60  30  20  10
FPR  72  80  59  78 /  60  30  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NORTHERN LAKE-SOUTHERN LAKE.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR WATERS
     FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60
     NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
     SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE
     OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE
     TO SEBASTIAN INLET OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

FORECASTS...WIMMER
IMPACT WX...BOWEN







000
FXUS62 KMLB 181345
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
945 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...

...POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE STORMS TODAY...

...HAZARDOUS BOATING THROUGH EASTER AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...

CURRENT-THIS AFTERNOON...WARM FRONT BEING ANALYZED BETWEEN LAKE
OKEECHOBEE AND ORLANDO AND WAS LIFTING SLOWLY NORTHWARD UP THE
PENINSULA. RADARS DETECTING SEVERAL AREAS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STORMS MOVING SOUTH TO NORTH OVER AN AREA FROM ORLANDO TO TITUSVILLE
NORTH. A LARGE AND STRONG MESOSCALE COMPLEX SYSTEM (MCS) IN THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WAS MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE
FLORIDA WEST COAST. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WITHIN THE COMPLEX WERE
MOVING MORE NORTHERLY WITH THE MEAN 5000 TO 15000 FOOT LAYER WIND
FLOW. SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGESTING THAT THIS FLOW SHOULD SLOWLY
SHIFT SOUTHWEST NORTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH WOULD BRING THE
MCS STORMS INTO EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
(SPC) ALL OF OUR COUNTIES EXCEPT FOR SAINT LUCIE AND MARTIN IN A
SLIGHT RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE WEATHER FOR TODAY WITH THE BEST
TIMING BEING IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

CURRENT FORECAST ADDRESSES THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS AND POSSIBILITY OF HAIL
FOR THE AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS ZONES DISCUSSION

TODAY....DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
MIDWEST AND WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS DRIVING AN IMPRESSIVE MCS
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS MCS IS DEVELOPING
AT THE INFLECTION POINT ALONG THE SLOWLY LIFTING WARM FRONT WHERE A
SURFACE LOW IS SLOWLY DEVELOPING. HOW THIS MCS AND THE SURFACE LOW
THAT IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP WILL BE THE DRIVING FACTOR IN OUR
FORECAST FOR TODAY.

MODELS HAVE A 1011MB-1013MB CLOSED SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO BY DAYBREAK...WHICH IS FORECASTED TO HELP
PIVOT THE CONVECTION NORTHWARDS LATER THIS MORNING. THE MESOSCALE
HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE EVOLUTION...THOUGH IT IS A
LITTLE TOO FAR WEST COMPARED TO THE CURRENT POSITION OF THE FEATURE
AND LIKELY A FEW HOURS SLOW.

THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE DIVERGENCE ALOFT ALONG WITH THE SUPPORT
OF THE TROUGH THAT WILL DEVELOP INTO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
GULF COAST BY THIS AFTERNOON...SO IT IS LIKELY THAT THE CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX WILL HOLD TOGETHER WELL AS IT TRAVERSES THE EASTERN GULF.

INITIAL ACTIVITY THIS MORNING WILL BE WITH THE WARM FRONT
CURRENTLY LIFTING THROUGH PALM BEACH COUNTY AND WELL MARKED BY A
BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AND EAST-SOUTHEAST WIND SHIFT BEHIND IT.
EXTRAPOLATION HAS THE FRONT THROUGH THE TREASURE COAST AND MELBOURNE
AROUND DAYBREAK...VOLUSIA COUNTY AND THE ORLANDO METRO BY MID
MORNING AND NORTH OF THE REGION BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS MAY
ACCELERATE FASTER IF THE GULF LOW TAKES SHAPE A LITTLE MORE QUICKLY.

SOUTHERN AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE A BREAK IN PRECIP...AND POSSIBLY EVEN
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES IF THE WARM FRONT LIFT FAR ENOUGH NORTH EARLY
ENOUGH BEFORE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM THE GULF SPREADS OVERHEAD.
SURFACE LOW TRACK WILL TRACK INTO THE BIG BEND REGION LATE THIS
EVENING WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE MCS/PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE MOVING
INTO THE WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST AHEAD OF IT IN THE MID
AFTERNOON. LINE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE PENINSULA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SLOWING DOWN AS IT PROGRESSES AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW DEEPENS OVERHEAD THE SURFACE LOW NEARLY STALLS.
CONSIDERABLE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS MAY INHIBIT FORMATION OF CELLS OUT
AHEAD OF THE LARGE COMPLEX...BUT WITH VEERED AND INCREASED LOW LEVEL
WINDS...WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.

SPC HAS MOST OF THE CENTRAL PENINSULA MENTIONED FOR THE POSSIBILITY
OF SEVERE WEATHER TODAY. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE INCREASING TO A
MODEST 35-45KTS...ESPECIALLY FROM ORLANDO-TITUSVILLE
NORTHWARDS...WITH SURFACE FLOW REMAINING A GUSTY EAST-SOUTHEAST.
THIS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF ROTATING STORMS AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST WHERE FLOW WILL BE A LITTLE
MORE BACKED AND CLOSER TO THE WARM FRONT ACROSS THE NORTH. 500MB
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE COOLING AS THE TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD TO A
RESPECTABLE -10C TO -12C MAKING HAIL A POSSIBILITY.

TONIGHT...RAIN AND STORMS LINGERING THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT AS LOW
AND ASSOCIATED FRONT SLOW DOWN. THREAT FOR TORNADIC STORMS WILL
DIMINISH AS FLOW VEERS WEST-SOUTHWEST...THOUGHT 30-40KT FLOW JUST
ABOVE THE SURFACE AND COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT MAY STILL BRING A
FEW STRONGER STORMS LATE INTO THE EVENING. MILD OVERNIGHT IN THE
UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S.

THIS WEEKEND...CLOSED DEEP LAYER LOW WILL DRIFT EASTWARD ACROSS
NORTH FL DURING THE DAY ON SAT...WITH THE CENTER REACHING THE ATLC
OCEAN AROUND 00Z/SUNSET. TONGUE OF DRIER AIR WILL WRAP AROUND THE
SOUTH SIDE OF THE LOW...LEAVING BETTER MOISTURE CONFINED TO THE
FAR NORTHERN CWA. AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY...LINGERING MOISTURE WILL
RETRACT INTO THE ATLC...WITH DRY CONDITIONS SETTLING IN BEGINNING
SUNDAY. MAIN CHANGE TO THE FCST WAS TO REMOVE MENTION OF TS AS
MEAN MOISTURE LOOKING A BIT LIMITED...EVEN WITH COLD TEMPS ALOFT
BENEATH THE UPPER LOW. FOR SAT...MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S NORTH/CTRL
TO L-M80S SOUTH WITH LOWS IN THE 50S. ON SUNDAY...U70S NORTH HALF
AND L80S SOUTH HALF WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S.

MON-THU...HIGH PRES SETTLES SWD ACROSS FL FROM THE SOUTHEAST MON
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING ATLC LOW. TAIL END OF NRN STREAM SHORT
WAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS FL TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED...WITH WEAK AND LIKELY
DRY COOL FRONTAL PASSAGE AS MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS FL AHEAD OF THE
FRONT LOOKS NEXT TO NIL. CONTINUED DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS MONDAY
RISING TO ABOUT A CATEGORY OR SO ABOVE NORMAL FROM TUE ONWARD.

&&

.AVIATION...FROM 17/15Z-17/18Z...PREVAILING VFR CIGS FL035-040 WITH
SCT SHRA/ISOLD TSRA BEHIND INITIAL WARM FRONT. AFTER 17/18Z...
MCS/PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION PUSHING INTO FL PENINSULA FROM WEST TO
EAST. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...

CURRENT-THIS AFTERNOON...NOAA BUOYS 009/20NM EAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL
AND 010/120NM EAST OF NEW SMYRNA BEACH WERE RECORDING EAST SOUTHEAST
WINDS 17 TO 21 KNOTS AND 8 FOOT SEAS. THE TWO SCRIPPS BUOYS 4 AND 6
NM OFF PORT CANAVERAL AND FORT PIERCE INLET WERE RECORDING 5 TO 6
FOOT SEAS.

AFTERNOON UPDATE PUSHED OFFSHORE SEAS TO 8 FEET WHICH WOULD BE IN
LINE WITH CURRENT BUOY REPORTS.

PREVIOUS MARINE DISCUSSION

TODAY-TONIGHT...WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH
THROUGH THE WATERS THIS MORNING BRINGING THE CURRENT EAST-NORTHEAST
WINDS AROUND 20KTS TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST BY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH TO 15-20KTS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BEHIND WARM
FRONT...LINGERING THE LONGEST OVER THE VOLUSIA COUNTY WATERS. SEAS
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED FROM THE PREVIOUS LONG EAST-NORTHEAST
FETCH...WITH 8-9FT OFFSHORE/ 6-7FT NEARSHORE THIS MORNING BECOMING
5-6FT NEARSHORE/6-7FT OFFSHORE BY THIS EVENING. TIMING ADVISORY
CONDITIONS IS TOUGH GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE WARM FRONT...BUT
SINCE SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED EVEN IF WINDS DROP A LITTLE BELOW
CRITERIA WILL KEEP ADVISORY GOING FOR WATERS NORTH OF SEBASTIAN
INLET THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND THE OFFSHORE LEG THROUGH THIS
EVENING. IF WINDS DROP OFF MORE QUICKLY... THIS MAY BECOME AN
ADVISORY JUST FOR SEAS.

OVERALL HOWEVER POOR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FOR SMALL CRAFT. IN
ADDITION TO SHOWERS AND STORMS LIFTING NORTH WITH THE WARM FRONT
THIS MORNING...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR STRONG STORMS PUSHING
OFFSHORE BY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SAT-TUE...SWRLY FLOW ON SAT WILL VEER TO NW BY LATE SAT NIGHT WITH
LOW CENTER IN CLOSE ENOUGH PROXIMITY TO LOCAL MAOR TO KEEP WINDS AND
SEAS A LITTLE BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS BUT STILL SOLID CAUTIONARY CONDS.
HOWEVER...SCA CONDS WILL EVENTUALLY OCCUR FROM LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY AS PGRAD TIGHTENS SIGNIFICANTLY BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW AND
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. WINDS WILL VEER FURTHER
TO NRLY AND INCREASE TO 20-25KT AND GUSTY WITH FULLY DEVELOPED SEAS
OF 10-12FT...PERHAPS A LITTLE HIGHER IN THE GULF STREAM IF WINDS ARE
CLOSER TO 25KT OR SO. WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO FL BEHIND THE ATLC LOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  67  72  58  74 /  60  40  30  20
MCO  67  76  58  79 /  60  30  30  10
MLB  70  78  61  77 /  60  40  20  10
VRB  71  80  59  78 /  60  40  20  10
LEE  65  75  56  78 /  60  40  30  10
SFB  68  75  56  78 /  60  40  20  10
ORL  67  76  58  79 /  60  30  30  10
FPR  72  81  60  78 /  60  40  20  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE
     OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD
     COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET
     OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
     SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20
     NM-WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

FORECASTS...WIMMER
IMPACT WX...BOWEN







000
FXUS62 KMLB 180826
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
415 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...

...POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE STORMS TODAY...

...HAZARDOUS BOATING THROUGH EASTER AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...

TODAY....DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
MIDWEST AND WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS DRIVING AN IMPRESSIVE MCS
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS MCS IS DEVELOPING
AT THE INFLECTION POINT ALONG THE SLOWLY LIFTING WARM FRONT WHERE A
SURFACE LOW IS SLOWLY DEVELOPING. HOW THIS MCS AND THE SURFACE LOW
THAT IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP WILL BE THE DRIVING FACTOR IN OUR
FORECAST FOR TODAY.

MODELS HAVE A 1011MB-1013MB CLOSED SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO BY DAYBREAK...WHICH IS FORECASTED TO HELP
PIVOT THE CONVECTION NORTHWARDS LATER THIS MORNING. THE MESOSCALE
HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE EVOLUTION...THOUGH IT IS A
LITTLE TOO FAR WEST COMPARED TO THE CURRENT POSITION OF THE FEATURE
AND LIKELY A FEW HOURS SLOW.

THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE DIVERGENCE ALOFT ALONG WITH THE SUPPORT
OF THE TROUGH THAT WILL DEVELOP INTO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
GULF COAST BY THIS AFTERNOON...SO IT IS LIKELY THAT THE CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX WILL HOLD TOGETHER WELL AS IT TRAVERSES THE EASTERN GULF.

INITIAL ACTIVITY THIS MORNING WILL BE WITH THE WARM FRONT
CURRENTLY LIFTING THROUGH PALM BEACH COUNTY AND WELL MARKED BY A
BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AND EAST-SOUTHEAST WIND SHIFT BEHIND IT.
EXTRAPOLATION HAS THE FRONT THROUGH THE TREASURE COAST AND MELBOURNE
AROUND DAYBREAK...VOLUSIA COUNTY AND THE ORLANDO METRO BY MID
MORNING AND NORTH OF THE REGION BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS MAY
ACCELERATE FASTER IF THE GULF LOW TAKES SHAPE A LITTLE MORE QUICKLY.

SOUTHERN AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE A BREAK IN PRECIP...AND POSSIBLY EVEN
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES IF THE WARM FRONT LIFT FAR ENOUGH NORTH EARLY
ENOUGH BEFORE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM THE GULF SPREADS OVERHEAD.
SURFACE LOW TRACK WILL TRACK INTO THE BIG BEND REGION LATE THIS
EVENING WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE MCS/PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE MOVING
INTO THE WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST AHEAD OF IT IN THE MID
AFTERNOON. LINE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE PENINSULA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SLOWING DOWN AS IT PROGRESSES AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW DEEPENS OVERHEAD THE SURFACE LOW NEARLY STALLS.
CONSIDERABLE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS MAY INHIBIT FORMATION OF CELLS OUT
AHEAD OF THE LARGE COMPLEX...BUT WITH VEERED AND INCREASED LOW LEVEL
WINDS...WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.

SPC HAS MOST OF THE CENTRAL PENINSULA MENTIONED FOR THE POSSIBILITY
OF SEVERE WEATHER TODAY. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE INCREASING TO A
MODEST 35-45KTS...ESPECIALLY FROM ORLANDO-TITUSVILLE
NORTHWARDS...WITH SURFACE FLOW REMAINING A GUSTY EAST-SOUTHEAST.
THIS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF ROTATING STORMS AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST WHERE FLOW WILL BE A LITTLE
MORE BACKED AND CLOSER TO THE WARM FRONT ACROSS THE NORTH. 500MB
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE COOLING AS THE TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD TO A
RESPECTABLE -10C TO -12C MAKING HAIL A POSSIBILITY.

TONIGHT...RAIN AND STORMS LINGERING THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT AS LOW
AND ASSOCIATED FRONT SLOW DOWN. THREAT FOR TORNADIC STORMS WILL
DIMINISH AS FLOW VEERS WEST-SOUTHWEST...THOUGHT 30-40KT FLOW JUST
ABOVE THE SURFACE AND COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT MAY STILL BRING A
FEW STRONGER STORMS LATE INTO THE EVENING. MILD OVERNIGHT IN THE
UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S.

THIS WEEKEND...CLOSED DEEP LAYER LOW WILL DRIFT EASTWARD ACROSS
NORTH FL DURING THE DAY ON SAT...WITH THE CENTER REACHING THE ATLC
OCEAN AROUND 00Z/SUNSET. TONGUE OF DRIER AIR WILL WRAP AROUND THE
SOUTH SIDE OF THE LOW...LEAVING BETTER MOISTURE CONFINED TO THE
FAR NORTHERN CWA. AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY...LINGERING MOISTURE WILL
RETRACT INTO THE ATLC...WITH DRY CONDITIONS SETTLING IN BEGINNING
SUNDAY. MAIN CHANGE TO THE FCST WAS TO REMOVE MENTION OF TS AS
MEAN MOISTURE LOOKING A BIT LIMITED...EVEN WITH COLD TEMPS ALOFT
BENEATH THE UPPER LOW. FOR SAT...MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S NORTH/CTRL
TO L-M80S SOUTH WITH LOWS IN THE 50S. ON SUNDAY...U70S NORTH HALF
AND L80S SOUTH HALF WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S.

MON-THU...HIGH PRES SETTLES SWD ACROSS FL FROM THE SOUTHEAST MON
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING ATLC LOW. TAIL END OF NRN STREAM SHORT
WAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS FL TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED...WITH WEAK AND LIKELY
DRY COOL FRONTAL PASSAGE AS MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS FL AHEAD OF THE
FRONT LOOKS NEXT TO NIL. CONTINUED DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS MONDAY
RISING TO ABOUT A CATEGORY OR SO ABOVE NORMAL FROM TUE ONWARD.

&&

.AVIATION...THROUGH 17/15Z...BAND OF SHRA/TSRA LIFTING NORTH THROUGH
THE REGION WITH WARM FRONT WITH ISOLD-SCT SHRA POSSIBLE OUTSIDE OF
ACTUAL BAND PRIMARILY ALONG COAST. OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS FL020-030
PRESENT AHEAD OF CONVECTIVE BAND. TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS WITH ANY
CONVECTION. 17/15Z-17/18Z...PREVAILING VFR CIGS FL035-040 WITH SCT
SHRA/ISOLD TSRA BEHIND INITIAL WARM FRONT. AFTER 17/18Z...
MCS/PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION PUSHING INTO FL PENINSULA FROM WEST TO
EAST. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...TODAY-TONIGHT...WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE
WATERS THIS MORNING BRINGING THE CURRENT EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND
20KTS TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST BY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
TO 15-20KTS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BEHIND WARM FRONT...LINGERING THE
LONGEST OVER THE VOLUSIA COUNTY WATERS. SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED
FROM THE PREVIOUS LONG EAST-NORTHEAST FETCH...WITH 8-9FT OFFSHORE/
6-7FT NEARSHORE THIS MORNING BECOMING 5-6FT NEARSHORE/6-7FT OFFSHORE
BY THIS EVENING. TIMING ADVISORY CONDITIONS IS TOUGH GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE WARM FRONT...BUT SINCE SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED EVEN
IF WINDS DROP A LITTLE BELOW CRITERIA WILL KEEP ADVISORY GOING FOR
WATERS NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND THE
OFFSHORE LEG THROUGH THIS EVENING. IF WINDS DROP OFF MORE QUICKLY...
THIS MAY BECOME AN ADVISORY JUST FOR SEAS.

OVERALL HOWEVER POOR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FOR SMALL CRAFT. IN
ADDITION TO SHOWERS AND STORMS LIFTING NORTH WITH THE WARM FRONT
THIS MORNING...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR STRONG STORMS PUSHING
OFFSHORE BY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SAT-TUE...SWRLY FLOW ON SAT WILL VEER TO NW BY LATE SAT NIGHT WITH
LOW CENTER IN CLOSE ENOUGH PROXIMITY TO LOCAL MAOR TO KEEP WINDS AND
SEAS A LITTLE BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS BUT STILL SOLID CAUTIONARY CONDS.
HOWEVER...SCA CONDS WILL EVENTUALLY OCCUR FROM LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY AS PGRAD TIGHTENS SIGNIFICANTLY BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW AND
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. WINDS WILL VEER FURTHER
TO NRLY AND INCREASE TO 20-25KT AND GUSTY WITH FULLY DEVELOPED SEAS
OF 10-12FT...PERHAPS A LITTLE HIGHER IN THE GULF STREAM IF WINDS ARE
CLOSER TO 25KT OR SO. WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO FL BEHIND THE ATLC LOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  67  72  58  74 /  60  40  30  20
MCO  67  76  58  79 /  60  30  30  10
MLB  70  78  61  77 /  60  40  20  10
VRB  71  80  59  78 /  60  40  20  10
LEE  65  75  56  78 /  60  40  30  10
SFB  68  75  56  78 /  60  40  20  10
ORL  67  76  58  79 /  60  30  30  10
FPR  72  81  60  78 /  60  40  20  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE
     OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD
     COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET
     OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
     SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20
     NM-WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...MOSES
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX....CRISTALDI







000
FXUS62 KMLB 180154
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
954 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...

...POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
COAST THROUGH FRI MORNING...
...CHANCE OF STRONG STORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...
...HAZARDOUS BOATING THROUGH EASTER AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...

CURRENT-TONIGHT...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD
WAS PROVIDING A GUSTY NORTHEAST-EAST FLOW.  THE NORTHEAST COMPONENT
HAS CONFINED THE HIGHEST DEW POINT AIR TO THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF
THE PENINSULA AND PORTIONS OF THE TREASURE COAST. ATLANTIC SHOWERS
HAVE MOSTLY BEEN LIGHT EXCEPT FOR ISOLATED DOWNPOURS.  THE HIGHER
MOISTURE WILL LIFT GRADUALLY NORTH OVERNIGHT AS POORLY DEFINED WARM
FRONT GETS PULLED NORTH BY DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO.  THE LOCAL WRF STILL SHOWS A CHANCE FOR MORE CONCENTRATED
AND HEAVIER RAINFALL SOUTH OF CANAVERAL AS THIS BOUNDARY LIFTS
NORTH. WILL BUMP POPS UP THERE TO 40 PERCENT.

FRI...SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO LIFT SLOWLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
GULF OF MEXICO. WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...
BRINGING INCREASED MOISTURE/RAIN CHANCES AND WARMER TEMPS.

THE HRRR MODEL SHOWS A LARGE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX IN THE CENTRAL GULF
OF MEXICO ADVANCING EASTWARD AHEAD OF COLD FRONT ATTACHED TO THE
SURFACE LOW.  EXTRAPOLATION FROM THIS MODEL SHOWS THE CONVECTION
REACHING THE WEST COAST IN THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON.  CONSIDERABLE
DIVERGENCE ALOFT IS INDICATED SO IT IS LIKELY THAT THE CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX WILL HOLD TOGETHER WELL AS IT TRAVERSES THE GULF.
CONSIDERABLE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS MAY INHIBIT FORMATION OF CELLS OUT
AHEAD OF THE LARGE COMPLEX...BUT WITH VEERED AND INCREASED LOW LEVEL
WINDS...WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.  RIGHT NOW WE
ARE CALLING FOR LOW PROBABILITIES OF STRONG-SEVERE STORMS FRI
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECASTS
CONCERNING THIS APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING MVFR OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRI MORNING WITH A
CHANCE OF IFR AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS UP THE PENINSULA AND PRODUCES
AREAS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN. CEILINGS WILL LIFT BY FRI
AFTERNOON AS WE GET INTO THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. A CHANCE FOR STRONG STORMS EXISTS BY LATE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT-FRI...NORTHEAST/EAST WINDS PRESENTLY AROUND 20 KNOTS WITH
SEAS 6-9 FEET.  A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH OVERNIGHT AND
REACH NORTH OF THE WATERS BY LATE MORNING FRI.  MARINE MOS INDICATES
THE TRANSITION FROM EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL OCCUR AROUND 12Z AT
41009.  THERE IS A CORRESPONDING DROP OFF OF WINDS TO 15-20 KNOTS AT
THAT TIME. WILL EXTEND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN THE CENTRAL WATERS UNTIL
AT LEAST 10 AM FRI AND IN THE NORTH TO 4 PM FRI...DUE TO NEAR 20
KNOT FLOW AND SEAS NEAR 7 FEET. THE SOUTHERN WATERS SHOULD DROP
OFF TO 15 KNOTS...BUT CONDITIONS WILL STILL BE POOR THERE FOR
SMALL CRAFT. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR STRONG STORMS PUSHING OFFSHORE
BY LATE FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE OUT 20 NM-
     WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20
     TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET OUT 20
     NM-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN
     INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET
     OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20
     TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

FORECASTS...LASCODY
IMPACT WX...WEITLICH






000
FXUS62 KMLB 171936
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
336 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...

..WET THROUGH SATURDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST...

...HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...

CURRENT...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES NORTHWARD
RIDGES TO THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. THE NORTHEAST TO EAST
WINDFLOW AROUND THE SOUTHEAST AREA OF THE HIGH WAS PUSHING MARINE
STRATOCU ASHORE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE 915MHZ VERTICAL WIND
PROFILERS AT THE SPACE CENTER BEAR THIS OUT WITH EASTERLY 20 TO 25
KNOTS WINDS FROM JUST OFF THE SURFACE TO AROUND 5000 FEET/APPROX
850MB. THE WINDS THEN MAKE AN ABRUPT SHIFT TO THE WEST AT AROUND
6500 FEET AND REMAIN OUT OF THE WEST TO 10000 FEET WHICH IS THE
UPPER LIMIT OF THE 915MHZ RECORDING HEIGHTS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THAT WAS ANALYZED AS A DIFFUSE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF
LAKE OKEECHOBEE THIS MORNING HAS MOVED TO JUST NORTH OF THE LAKE.
WEATHER RADARS DETECTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA WITH MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AS IT SLOWLY LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

TONIGHT...MODEL TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS WERE INDICATING THAT THE
CURRENT CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
LIFTS SLOWLY NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN AN INCH AND A HALF AND 1.9 INCHES
AND THE LIFT PROVIDED BY THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS MOVING OVER THE
LOWER LAYER EASTERLY WINDS SHOULD GIVE US AT LEAST CHANCE...30-50
PERCENT... OF OVERNIGHT RAINS.

FRIDAY...THE NEWLY FORMED WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE NORTH GULF OF MEXICO LIFTS NORTHWARD AS THE
LOW TRACKS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST CROSSING NORTH FLORIDA AND INTO THE
ATLANTIC EAST OF GEORGIA WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSSING OVER
FLORIDA OVERNIGHT FRIDAY. THE BRISK SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDFLOW
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL MAKE FOR A BREEZY FRIDAY WITH RAIN
CHANCES RANGING FROM AROUND 60 PERCENT SOUTHERN AREAS TO 80 TO 90
PERCENT NORTHERN AREAS. HAVE KEPT THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FRIDAY
FORECAST AS COLDER...-10C TO -12C...MID LEVEL AIR MOVES OVERHEAD
STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG MID LEVEL IMPULSE MOVES
OVERHEAD DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE MID 80S
SOUTHERN AREAS TO LOW 80S NORTHWEST VOLUSIA AND NORTHEAST LAKE
COUNTIES.

FRIDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA OVERNIGHT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNING CLEARING CENTRAL
FLORIDA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LOWS SATURDAY MORNING MID AND UPPER 60S.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS ADVECTING GULF
MOISTURE ACROSS THE PENINSULA KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN THE 30 TO 50
PERCENT AREA. HIGHS RANGE SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S NORTHWEST
LAKE COUNTY TO THE MID 80S ON THE IN THE AREAS ON THE LEEWARD SIDE
OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. NORTHWEST WINDS OVERNIGHT SATURDAY BRING COOLER
AIR INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA. OVERNIGHT SATURDAY/SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING
LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING.

PREVIOUS ZONES DISCUSSION

TODAY-TONIGHT...POST FRONTAL DRY AIRMASS REMAIN FAIRLY PERVASIVE
ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND VOLUSIA
COUNTY WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE STILL IN THE MID-UPPER 50S.

MODELS HAVE SO FAR BEEN VERY GUNG HO IN LIFTING THE OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY/ENHANCED MOISTURE BACK NORTH...BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE
NORTHWARD TREND MAY BE STARTING AS ONE HEAVY RAINBAND SET UP EARLIER
THIS EVENING ACROSS BROWARD COUNTY THAT HAS SINCE DISSIPATED.
CURRENT ANALYSIS SHOWS A BAND OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM
BREVARD/OSCEOLA COUNTIES SOUTHWARDS COINCIDENT WITH AN AREA OF WIND
CONVERGENCE IN THE 1000-850MB LAYER. THIS IS WHERE RADAR IS ALSO NOW
PICKING UP ON A RECENT UPSWING IN SHOWER COVERAGE.

LOCAL WRF MODEL SHOWS A BAND OF ENHANCED PRECIP AROUND DAYBREAK OVER
THE TREASURE COAST...BUT HRRR MODEL KEEPS THIS ACTIVITY MORE OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA UNTIL LATER. ITS TOUGH TO SAY WHERE OR IF ANY LOCALLY
HEAVY BANDS MAY SET UP UNTIL THEY DO...BUT JUST AHEAD OF/ALONG WARM
FRONT WOULD BE THE BEST BET. DO EXPECT AN INCREASE IN SHOWER
FREQUENCY TOWARDS DAYBREAK ACROSS THE TREASURE COAST.

FRONTAL REMNANTS AND BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL MOVE BACK TO THE
NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH THE DAY...ACCELERATING INTO
NORTH FLORIDA TONIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE SWINGS EASTWARDS AND
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE GULF. HAVE TAPERED BACK RAIN CHANCES
TO 20 PERCENT NORTHERN INTERIOR TO 60 PERCENT OKEECHOBEE/TREASURE
COAST BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS/MODEL FORECAST. COULD SEE A FEW
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ALONG THE COAST TODAY...BEFORE THE BEST RAIN
CHANCES WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION LATER TONIGHT.

THOUGH IT WILL BE BREEZY AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...IT DOESN`T APPEAR
THAT SPEEDS/GUSTS WILL BE QUITE AS HIGH AS YESTERDAY SO HAVE NOT
ISSUED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY. HOWEVER CONDITIONS WILL STILL REMAIN
CHOPPY ON AREA LAKES.

COASTAL HIGHS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP
TIMING...BUT OVERALL EXPECTED ANYWHERE FROM LOW 70S ALONG VOLUSIA
COAST TO UPPER 70S/AROUND 80 IN BREVARD/TREASURE COAST. INTERIOR
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S. MILD OVERNIGHT AS FLOW BECOMES
MORE EAST-SOUTHEAST WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S INTERIOR/AROUND 70S
COAST.

FRI-SUN...THE OVERALL TREND OF THE SHORT RANGE FORECAST IS DECIDEDLY
SLOWER AND WETTER INTO SUNDAY. STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THE ERN GULF COAST BEFORE PINCHING OFF
INTO A CLOSED MID-UPPER LOW INVOF THE FL/AL/GA TRI-STATE REGION FRI
NIGHT. THE CLOSED LOW WILL THEN DRIFT SLOWLY EAST SOMEWHERE BTWN THE
FL/GA BORDER AND PENINSULAR NORTH FL ON SAT...EASING OFFSHORE SAT
NIGHT AND DRIFTING FARTHER OFFSHORE AND AWAY FROM THE FL EAST COAST
ON SUN.

AT THE SURFACE...AVBL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CONVERGED TOWARD A MORE
AGREEABLE (SLOWER) SOLUTION...ALTHOUGH THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE
FASTEST. SFC FRONTAL WAVE SPINS UP INTO A LOW AND TRACKS ACROSS THE
NERN GOMEX FRI...WITH THE SFC AND MID/UPPER LEVEL LOWS BECOMING
VERTICALLY STACKED BY FRI NIGHT OVER NORTH FL. SFC WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL FL DURING THE MORNING...WHICH SHOULD TAKE
WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM RAINFALL NWD ACROSS NORTH FL/GA...WHILE ECFL
BREAKS OUT INTO  THE WARM SECTOR OF THE GOMEX LOW. DEEP LAYER S-SW
FLOW WITH PWATS AROUND 1.75" WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/STORMS
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A BAND OF STRONGER STORMS TO REACH CTRL FL
FROM THE GOMEX (N/W OF I-4) AROUND SUNSET (GIVE OR TAKE) AND
CONTINUE TO DROP SEWD THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

SFC LOW WILL BE VERY SLOW TO MOVE ACROSS THE STATE FRI NIGHT...AND
THEN LINGER OFFSHORE THE FL EAST COAST THROUGHOUT SAT. SUFFICIENT
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL EXIST FOR SCT TO NMRS SHOWERS...AND EVEN
SOME STORMS GIVEN THE COLD H50 TEMPS UNDERNEATH THE H50 LOW OVHD.
EXPECT LINGERING SHOWERS SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY IN COOL/MOIST NRLY FLOW
ON BACK SIDE OF THE LOW...WHICH WILL BE GRUDGINGLY SLOW TO PUT SPACE
BETWEEN ITSELF AND FL. COVERAGE/INTENSITY SHOULD BE RATHER LOW.

MON-WED...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY SETTLES IN TOWARD FL EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AND DRYING CONDS OUT. THERE ARE SOME SUGGESTIONS OF A WEAK
FRONTAL TROUGH AND ASCD MOISTURE BAND TAKING A GLANCING SHOT AT NORTH
FL TUE-NIGHT INTO WED...BUT WILL NOT GET TOO INVOLVED IN DISSECTING
DAY 6-7 POPS GIVEN THE MORE SIG WX IN DAYS 1-3.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING MVFR THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS A
WARM FRONT AND WITH AREAS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN MOVES SLOWLY UP
THE PENINSULA.  PREVAILING VFR OVC FRIDAY AS THE WARM FRONT CLEARS
AND WE ARE IN THE WARM SECTOR.

PREVIOUS AVIATION

MOIST AND CLOUDY THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH OVERALL IT
APPEARS MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN JUST INSIDE VFR WITH PREVAILING
CIGS FL035-050. COASTAL SITES WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO SEE MVFR CIGS
FL020-030. ISOLD SHRA MOVING ONSHORE INTO AREAS SOUTH OF KVRB
THROUGH 13Z...THEN BECOMING SCT-NMRS. COVERAGE WILL INCREASE FROM
SOUTH-NORTH AS OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH THROUGH
THE DAY. A FEW HEAVIER SHRA MAY PRODUCE TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS MAINLY
ALONG COASTAL SITES. COULD SEE PREVAILING IFR CIGS LATER TONIGHT AS
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF REGION.


&&

.MARINE...

CURRENT-OVERNIGHT...NOAA BUOYS 009 AND 010 WERE RECORDING NORTHEAST
WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS AND 8 TO 9 FOOT SEAS. THE TWO SCRIPPS BUOYS 4
AND 6NM OFF THE COAST WERE RECORDING 4 AND 7 FEET RESPECTIVELY.
NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS A SLOW
MOVING WARM FRONT WORKS ITS WAY NORTHWARD. WILL KEEP THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THROUGH THE EVENING THROUGH 4AM COASTAL ISSUANCE.

FRI...WINDS SHIFT TO SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AS THE COASTAL WATERS COME
INTO THE WARM SECTOR BETWEEN THE WARM FRONT TO THE NORTH AND THE
COLD FRONT IN THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. WINDS DECREASE AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE WARM SECTOR DECREASES BUT EXPECT TO
HAVE SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION WITH 15-20KT AND SEAS TO 6FT
POSSIBLY A BIT HIGHER.

SAT-MON (MODIFIED)... COVERAGE OF RAIN AND STORMS/GUSTY WINDS WILL
REMAIN MARINE THREATS INTO SATURDAY. SYNOPTIC GRADIENT WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO PICK BACK UP SAT AFTERNOON AS THE LOW CENTER MOVES OFFSHORE
THE FL EAST COAST AND PGRAD TIGHTENS. SEAS WILL RAMP BACK UP TO
7-10FT OR A LITTLE HIGHER SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN AS W-NW WINDS SHIFT
TO N AND NNE BEHIND THE SLOWLY DEPARTING LOW. SLOW IMPROVEMENT IN
WINDS SEAS MON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  68  78  68  74 /  30  90  60  30
MCO  68  82  67  79 /  30  80  60  30
MLB  72  81  71  79 /  30  60  60  30
VRB  72  81  71  80 /  30  60  60  30
LEE  66  79  65  77 /  30  90  60  30
SFB  67  82  68  79 /  30  80  60  30
ORL  68  82  67  79 /  30  80  60  30
FPR  72  82  70  81 /  30  60  60  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE OUT 20 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
     SEBASTIAN INLET OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO
     VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS
     FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO
     60 NM OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET
     OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20
     TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

FORECASTS...WIMMER
IMPACT WX...VOLKMER








000
FXUS62 KMLB 171426
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1025 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...

...WET THROUGH SATURDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST...

...HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...

MORNING UPDATE...
STATIONARY BOUNDARY PREVIOUSLY ANALYZED STATIONARY BOUNDARY OVER THE
FLORIDA STRAITS NOW BEING ANALYZED AS A DIFFUSE BOUNDARY APPROACHING
LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

THE BIGGEST CHANGE FOR THE AFTERNOON WILL BE ADDING A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS TO OKEECHOBEE...MARTIN...SAINT LUCIE...INDIAN RIVER
AND SOUTHERN OSCEOLA COUNTIES WHERE THE AIR MASS WELL BE MORE MOIST
AND ANY BREAKS IN THE SKY COVER WOULD ENHANCE THE INSTABILITY.

MODEL TRENDS ARE INDICATING CAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 JOULES PER
KILOGRAM (J/KG) FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AREA 12Z SOUNDINGS WERE
SHOWING 500MB TEMPERATURES IN THE -12C TO -14C RANGE BUT THE MODELS
WERE SHOWING A LITTLE WARMING TO -10C TO 12C AS THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT ADVECTS SLIGHT WARMER AIR INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE TAMPA AND
CAPE CANAVERAL SOUNDINGS WERE SHOWING A WARM LAYER/WEAK CAP BETWEEN
700 AND 600MB THAT COULD HINDER STRONGER STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
AREA TO THE NORTH. ANY CELLS OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS REACHING HIGH
ENOUGH TO TAP THE COOLER AIR COULD BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN LATEST RADAR LOOP WAS
SHOWING ONE AREA OF RAIN MOVING EAST TO WEST OFF THE SOUTHERN
COASTAL WATERS AND INTO SAINT LUCIE AND MARTIN COUNTIES WITH AREAS
OF LIGHT RAIN OVER THE CENTRAL SECTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

TODAY-TONIGHT...POST FRONTAL DRY AIRMASS REMAIN FAIRLY PERVASIVE
ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND VOLUSIA
COUNTY WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE STILL IN THE MID-UPPER 50S.

MODELS HAVE SO FAR BEEN VERY GUNG HO IN LIFTING THE OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY/ENHANCED MOISTURE BACK NORTH...BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE
NORTHWARD TREND MAY BE STARTING AS ONE HEAVY RAINBAND SET UP EARLIER
THIS EVENING ACROSS BROWARD COUNTY THAT HAS SINCE DISSIPATED.
CURRENT ANALYSIS SHOWS A BAND OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM
BREVARD/OSCEOLA COUNTIES SOUTHWARDS COINCIDENT WITH AN AREA OF WIND
CONVERGENCE IN THE 1000-850MB LAYER. THIS IS WHERE RADAR IS ALSO NOW
PICKING UP ON A RECENT UPSWING IN SHOWER COVERAGE.

LOCAL WRF MODEL SHOWS A BAND OF ENHANCED PRECIP AROUND DAYBREAK OVER
THE TREASURE COAST...BUT HRRR MODEL KEEPS THIS ACTIVITY MORE OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA UNTIL LATER. ITS TOUGH TO SAY WHERE OR IF ANY LOCALLY
HEAVY BANDS MAY SET UP UNTIL THEY DO...BUT JUST AHEAD OF/ALONG WARM
FRONT WOULD BE THE BEST BET. DO EXPECT AN INCREASE IN SHOWER
FREQUENCY TOWARDS DAYBREAK ACROSS THE TREASURE COAST.

FRONTAL REMNANTS AND BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL MOVE BACK TO THE
NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH THE DAY...ACCELERATING INTO
NORTH FLORIDA TONIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE SWINGS EASTWARDS AND
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE GULF. HAVE TAPERED BACK RAIN CHANCES
TO 20 PERCENT NORTHERN INTERIOR TO 60 PERCENT OKEECHOBEE/TREASURE
COAST BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS/MODEL FORECAST. COULD SEE A FEW
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ALONG THE COAST TODAY...BEFORE THE BEST RAIN
CHANCES WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION LATER TONIGHT.

THOUGH IT WILL BE BREEZY AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...IT DOESN`T APPEAR
THAT SPEEDS/GUSTS WILL BE QUITE AS HIGH AS YESTERDAY SO HAVE NOT
ISSUED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY. HOWEVER CONDITIONS WILL STILL REMAIN
CHOPPY ON AREA LAKES.

COASTAL HIGHS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP
TIMING...BUT OVERALL EXPECTED ANYWHERE FROM LOW 70S ALONG VOLUSIA
COAST TO UPPER 70S/AROUND 80 IN BREVARD/TREASURE COAST. INTERIOR
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S. MILD OVERNIGHT AS FLOW BECOMES
MORE EAST-SOUTHEAST WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S INTERIOR/AROUND 70S
COAST.

FRI-SUN...THE OVERALL TREND OF THE SHORT RANGE FORECAST IS DECIDEDLY
SLOWER AND WETTER INTO SUNDAY. STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THE ERN GULF COAST BEFORE PINCHING OFF
INTO A CLOSED MID-UPPER LOW INVOF THE FL/AL/GA TRI-STATE REGION FRI
NIGHT. THE CLOSED LOW WILL THEN DRIFT SLOWLY EAST SOMEWHERE BTWN THE
FL/GA BORDER AND PENINSULAR NORTH FL ON SAT...EASING OFFSHORE SAT
NIGHT AND DRIFTING FARTHER OFFSHORE AND AWAY FROM THE FL EAST COAST
ON SUN.

AT THE SURFACE...AVBL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CONVERGED TOWARD A MORE
AGREEABLE (SLOWER) SOLUTION...ALTHOUGH THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE
FASTEST. SFC FRONTAL WAVE SPINS UP INTO A LOW AND TRACKS ACROSS THE
NERN GOMEX FRI...WITH THE SFC AND MID/UPPER LEVEL LOWS BECOMING
VERTICALLY STACKED BY FRI NIGHT OVER NORTH FL. SFC WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL FL DURING THE MORNING...WHICH SHOULD TAKE
WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM RAINFALL NWD ACROSS NORTH FL/GA...WHILE ECFL
BREAKS OUT INTO  THE WARM SECTOR OF THE GOMEX LOW. DEEP LAYER S-SW
FLOW WITH PWATS AROUND 1.75" WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/STORMS
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A BAND OF STRONGER STORMS TO REACH CTRL FL
FROM THE GOMEX (N/W OF I-4) AROUND SUNSET (GIVE OR TAKE) AND
CONTINUE TO DROP SEWD THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

SFC LOW WILL BE VERY SLOW TO MOVE ACROSS THE STATE FRI NIGHT...AND
THEN LINGER OFFSHORE THE FL EAST COAST THROUGHOUT SAT. SUFFICIENT
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL EXIST FOR SCT TO NMRS SHOWERS...AND EVEN
SOME STORMS GIVEN THE COLD H50 TEMPS UNDERNEATH THE H50 LOW OVHD.
EXPECT LINGERING SHOWERS SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY IN COOL/MOIST NRLY FLOW
ON BACK SIDE OF THE LOW...WHICH WILL BE GRUDGINGLY SLOW TO PUT SPACE
BETWEEN ITSELF AND FL. COVERAGE/INTENSITY SHOULD BE RATHER LOW.

MON-WED...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY SETTLES IN TOWARD FL EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AND DRYING CONDS OUT. THERE ARE SOME SUGGESTIONS OF A WEAK
FRONTAL TROUGH AND ASCD MOISTURE BAND TAKING A GLANCING SHOT AT NORTH
FL TUE-NIGHT INTO WED...BUT WILL NOT GET TOO INVOLVED IN DISSECTING
DAY 6-7 POPS GIVEN THE MORE SIG WX IN DAYS 1-3.

&&

.AVIATION...WARM MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW MOVING OVERTOP OF A RELATIVELY
COOLER LOW LEVEL AIR MASS BEING ADVECTED EAST TO WEST OFF THE
ATLANTIC WILL PRODUCE HIGHLY VARIABLE CLOUD BASES. NOT STRAYING VERY
FAR FROM THE CURRENT MVFR TAFS FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY.

PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION

MOIST AND CLOUDY THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH OVERALL IT
APPEARS MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN JUST INSIDE VFR WITH PREVAILING
CIGS FL035-050. COASTAL SITES WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO SEE MVFR CIGS
FL020-030. ISOLD SHRA MOVING ONSHORE INTO AREAS SOUTH OF KVRB
THROUGH 13Z...THEN BECOMING SCT-NMRS. COVERAGE WILL INCREASE FROM
SOUTH-NORTH AS OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH THROUGH
THE DAY. A FEW HEAVIER SHRA MAY PRODUCE TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS MAINLY
ALONG COASTAL SITES. COULD SEE PREVAILING IFR CIGS LATER TONIGHT AS
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
CURRENT-THIS AFTERNOON...BUOYS 113...114 AND 009 WERE RECORDING 4 TO
6 FEET NEARSHORE AND 7 FEET AT 20 MILES OFF THE COAST. BUOY 010 OUT
AT 120 MILES OFFSHORE WAS RECORDING 10 FOOT SEAS WITH A 7 FOOT
NORTHEAST SWELL. BOTH BUOYS 009 AND 010 WERE RECORDING NORTHEAST
WINDS AROUND 19 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS. CURRENT AFTERNOON
FORECAST OF WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS AND 6 TO 9 FOOT SEAS LOOKS GOOD.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL MARINE ZONES CONTINUES.

PREVIOUS MARINE DISCUSSION

TODAY-TONIGHT...GUSTY NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT. PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL REMAIN STRONGEST OVER WATERS NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET...KEEPING
WINDS IN THE 20-25KT RANGE INTO THIS EVENING. WARM FRONT LIFTING
BACK TO THE NORTH WILL EASE GRADIENT FURTHER SOUTH...VEERING WINDS
MORE EAST IN THE 15-20KT RANGE BY LATE MORNING OFF THE TREASURE
COAST. WINDS WILL VEER EAST-SOUTHEAST AND DROP TO 15-20KTS OVER ALL
THE WATERS BY LATE TONIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE
REGION.

WILL KEEP ADVISORY FOR WINDS/SEAS NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT WITH SEAS 5-7FT NEARSHORE/6-9FT OFFSHORE. WILL HAVE
ADVISORY FOR SEAS SOUTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET WHERE WINDS WILL BE
LIGHTER...BUT SEAS WILL BE SIMILAR TO NORTHERN SECTIONS DUE TO
INITIAL NORTHEASTERLY TRAJECTORY.

FRI-MON...A SLIGHT DECREASE IN WINDS/SEAS IS EXPECTED AS THE WARM
FRONT LIFTS NWD THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY. HOWEVER...STILL LOOKING AT
CAUTIONARY CONDITIONS WITH 15-20KT AND SEAS TO 6FT...POSSIBLY A BIT
HIGHER. COVERAGE OF RAIN AND STORMS/GUSTY WINDS WILL REMAIN MARINE
THREATS INTO SATURDAY. SYNOPTIC GRADIENT WINDS WILL BEGIN TO PICK
BACK UP SAT AFTERNOON AS THE LOW CENTER MOVES OFFSHORE THE FL EAST
COAST AND PGRAD TIGHTENS. SEAS WILL RAMP BACK UP TO 7-10FT OR A
LITTLE HIGHER SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN AS W-NW WINDS SHIFT TO N AND NNE
BEHIND THE SLOWLY DEPARTING LOW. SLOW IMPROVEMENT IN WINDS SEAS MON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  73  68  78  64 /  20  50  80  60
MCO  79  67  82  66 /  20  50  80  60
MLB  79  71  81  69 /  50  40  70  60
VRB  79  72  81  70 /  50  40  70  60
LEE  78  66  79  61 /  20  50  80  60
SFB  78  67  82  64 /  20  50  80  60
ORL  79  68  82  65 /  20  50  80  60
FPR  80  70  82  72 /  60  40  70  60

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE OUT 20 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN
     INLET OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD
     COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD
     COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...WIMMER
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...VOLKMER







000
FXUS62 KMLB 170843
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
440 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...

...WET THROUGH SATURDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST...

...HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...

TODAY-TONIGHT...POST FRONTAL DRY AIRMASS REMAIN FAIRLY PERVASIVE
ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND VOLUSIA
COUNTY WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE STILL IN THE MID-UPPER 50S.

MODELS HAVE SO FAR BEEN VERY GUNG HO IN LIFTING THE OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY/ENHANCED MOISTURE BACK NORTH...BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE
NORTHWARD TREND MAY BE STARTING AS ONE HEAVY RAINBAND SET UP EARLIER
THIS EVENING ACROSS BROWARD COUNTY THAT HAS SINCE DISSIPATED.
CURRENT ANALYSIS SHOWS A BAND OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM
BREVARD/OSCEOLA COUNTIES SOUTHWARDS COINCIDENT WITH AN AREA OF WIND
CONVERGENCE IN THE 1000-850MB LAYER. THIS IS WHERE RADAR IS ALSO NOW
PICKING UP ON A RECENT UPSWING IN SHOWER COVERAGE.

LOCAL WRF MODEL SHOWS A BAND OF ENHANCED PRECIP AROUND DAYBREAK OVER
THE TREASURE COAST...BUT HRRR MODEL KEEPS THIS ACTIVITY MORE OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA UNTIL LATER. ITS TOUGH TO SAY WHERE OR IF ANY LOCALLY
HEAVY BANDS MAY SET UP UNTIL THEY DO...BUT JUST AHEAD OF/ALONG WARM
FRONT WOULD BE THE BEST BET. DO EXPECT AN INCREASE IN SHOWER
FREQUENCY TOWARDS DAYBREAK ACROSS THE TREASURE COAST.

FRONTAL REMNANTS AND BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL MOVE BACK TO THE
NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH THE DAY...ACCELERATING INTO
NORTH FLORIDA TONIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE SWINGS EASTWARDS AND
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE GULF. HAVE TAPERED BACK RAIN CHANCES
TO 20 PERCENT NORTHERN INTERIOR TO 60 PERCENT OKEECHOBEE/TREASURE
COAST BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS/MODEL FORECAST. COULD SEE A FEW
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ALONG THE COAST TODAY...BEFORE THE BEST RAIN
CHANCES WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION LATER TONIGHT.

THOUGH IT WILL BE BREEZY AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...IT DOESN`T APPEAR
THAT SPEEDS/GUSTS WILL BE QUITE AS HIGH AS YESTERDAY SO HAVE NOT
ISSUED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY. HOWEVER CONDITIONS WILL STILL REMAIN
CHOPPY ON AREA LAKES.

COASTAL HIGHS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP
TIMING...BUT OVERALL EXPECTED ANYWHERE FROM LOW 70S ALONG VOLUSIA
COAST TO UPPER 70S/AROUND 80 IN BREVARD/TREASURE COAST. INTERIOR
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S. MILD OVERNIGHT AS FLOW BECOMES
MORE EAST-SOUTHEAST WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S INTERIOR/AROUND 70S
COAST.

FRI-SUN...THE OVERALL TREND OF THE SHORT RANGE FORECAST IS DECIDEDLY
SLOWER AND WETTER INTO SUNDAY. STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THE ERN GULF COAST BEFORE PINCHING OFF
INTO A CLOSED MID-UPPER LOW INVOF THE FL/AL/GA TRI-STATE REGION FRI
NIGHT. THE CLOSED LOW WILL THEN DRIFT SLOWLY EAST SOMEWHERE BTWN THE
FL/GA BORDER AND PENINSULAR NORTH FL ON SAT...EASING OFFSHORE SAT
NIGHT AND DRIFTING FARTHER OFFSHORE AND AWAY FROM THE FL EAST COAST
ON SUN.

AT THE SURFACE...AVBL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CONVERGED TOWARD A MORE
AGREEABLE (SLOWER) SOLUTION...ALTHOUGH THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE
FASTEST. SFC FRONTAL WAVE SPINS UP INTO A LOW AND TRACKS ACROSS THE
NERN GOMEX FRI...WITH THE SFC AND MID/UPPER LEVEL LOWS BECOMING
VERTICALLY STACKED BY FRI NIGHT OVER NORTH FL. SFC WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL FL DURING THE MORNING...WHICH SHOULD TAKE
WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM RAINFALL NWD ACROSS NORTH FL/GA...WHILE ECFL
BREAKS OUT INTO  THE WARM SECTOR OF THE GOMEX LOW. DEEP LAYER S-SW
FLOW WITH PWATS AROUND 1.75" WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/STORMS
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A BAND OF STRONGER STORMS TO REACH CTRL FL
FROM THE GOMEX (N/W OF I-4) AROUND SUNSET (GIVE OR TAKE) AND
CONTINUE TO DROP SEWD THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

SFC LOW WILL BE VERY SLOW TO MOVE ACROSS THE STATE FRI NIGHT...AND
THEN LINGER OFFSHORE THE FL EAST COAST THROUGHOUT SAT. SUFFICIENT
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL EXIST FOR SCT TO NMRS SHOWERS...AND EVEN
SOME STORMS GIVEN THE COLD H50 TEMPS UNDERNEATH THE H50 LOW OVHD.
EXPECT LINGERING SHOWERS SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY IN COOL/MOIST NRLY FLOW
ON BACK SIDE OF THE LOW...WHICH WILL BE GRUDGINGLY SLOW TO PUT SPACE
BETWEEN ITSELF AND FL. COVERAGE/INTENSITY SHOULD BE RATHER LOW.

MON-WED...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY SETTLES IN TOWARD FL EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AND DRYING CONDS OUT. THERE ARE SOME SUGGESTIONS OF A WEAK
FRONTAL TROUGH AND ASCD MOISTURE BAND TAKING A GLANCING SHOT AT NORTH
FL TUE-NIGHT INTO WED...BUT WILL NOT GET TOO INVOLVED IN DISSECTING
DAY 6-7 POPS GIVEN THE MORE SIG WX IN DAYS 1-3.

&&

.AVIATION...MOIST AND CLOUDY THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH OVERALL IT
APPEARS MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN JUST INSIDE VFR WITH PREVAILING
CIGS FL035-050. COASTAL SITES WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO SEE MVFR CIGS
FL020-030. ISOLD SHRA MOVING ONSHORE INTO AREAS SOUTH OF KVRB
THROUGH 13Z...THEN BECOMING SCT-NMRS. COVERAGE WILL INCREASE FROM
SOUTH-NORTH AS OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH THROUGH
THE DAY. A FEW HEAVIER SHRA MAY PRODUCE TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS MAINLY
ALONG COASTAL SITES. COULD SEE PREVAILING IFR CIGS LATER TONIGHT AS
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF REGION.

&&

.MARINE...TODAY-TONIGHT...GUSTY NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT. PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL REMAIN STRONGEST OVER WATERS NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET...KEEPING
WINDS IN THE 20-25KT RANGE INTO THIS EVENING. WARM FRONT LIFTING
BACK TO THE NORTH WILL EASE GRADIENT FURTHER SOUTH...VEERING WINDS
MORE EAST IN THE 15-20KT RANGE BY LATE MORNING OFF THE TREASURE
COAST. WINDS WILL VEER EAST-SOUTHEAST AND DROP TO 15-20KTS OVER ALL
THE WATERS BY LATE TONIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE
REGION.

WILL KEEP ADVISORY FOR WINDS/SEAS NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT WITH SEAS 5-7FT NEARSHORE/6-9FT OFFSHORE. WILL HAVE
ADVISORY FOR SEAS SOUTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET WHERE WINDS WILL BE
LIGHTER...BUT SEAS WILL BE SIMILAR TO NORTHERN SECTIONS DUE TO
INITIAL NORTHEASTERLY TRAJECTORY.

FRI-MON...A SLIGHT DECREASE IN WINDS/SEAS IS EXPECTED AS THE WARM
FRONT LIFTS NWD THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY. HOWEVER...STILL LOOKING AT
CAUTIONARY CONDITIONS WITH 15-20KT AND SEAS TO 6FT...POSSIBLY A BIT
HIGHER. COVERAGE OF RAIN AND STORMS/GUSTY WINDS WILL REMAIN MARINE
THREATS INTO SATURDAY. SYNOPTIC GRADIENT WINDS WILL BEGIN TO PICK
BACK UP SAT AFTERNOON AS THE LOW CENTER MOVES OFFSHORE THE FL EAST
COAST AND PGRAD TIGHTENS. SEAS WILL RAMP BACK UP TO 7-10FT OR A
LITTLE HIGHER SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN AS W-NW WINDS SHIFT TO N AND NNE
BEHIND THE SLOWLY DEPARTING LOW. SLOW IMPROVEMENT IN WINDS SEAS MON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  73  68  78  64 /  20  50  80  60
MCO  79  67  82  66 /  20  50  80  60
MLB  79  71  81  69 /  50  40  70  60
VRB  79  72  81  70 /  50  40  70  60
LEE  78  66  79  61 /  20  50  80  60
SFB  78  67  82  64 /  20  50  80  60
ORL  79  68  82  65 /  20  50  80  60
FPR  80  70  82  72 /  60  40  70  60

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE OUT 20 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN
     INLET OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD
     COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD
     COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...MOSES
LONG TERM....CRISTALDI







000
FXUS62 KMLB 170152
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
952 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE TREASURE COAST ON THU...

TONIGHT-THU...QUITE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE FOR MID APRIL CENTERED WELL
TO OUR NORTH WAS PRODUCING A GUSTY NORTHEAST WIND FLOW.  THIS WAS
MODIFYING THE COOLER/DRIER AIR THAT BUILT IN THIS MORNING.  RADAR
HAS ALREADY STARTED TO PICK UP A SMALL AMOUNT OF LIGHT SHOWERS OVER
THE ATLANTIC.

NORTHERN SECTIONS WERE DRIER INITIALLY SO EXPECT THAT THE MAIN
INCREASE IN SHOWER COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL BE IN THE SOUTH
CLOSER TO OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT SHOULD BEGIN TO RETURN SLOWLY
NORTHWARD LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THU.  THE LOCAL WRF MODEL SHOWS THIS
BASIC SCENARIO UNFOLDING AND SUGGESTS SOME MORE CONCENTRATED...AND
HEAVY RAINFALL IN MARTIN COUNTY TOWARDS SUNRISE.  THIS MODEL USUALLY
PICKS UP ON CONVECTIVE INITIATION IN A PATTERN LIKE THIS...BUT OFTEN
OVERDOES AMOUNTS.

CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO CHANGE OUR CURRENT FORECAST MUCH IN
THE SOUTH FOR TONIGHT/EARLY THU...ESPECIALLY SINCE THE 18Z GFS
PRACTICALLY HALVED THE THU POPS FROM THE 12Z RUN.  WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH ON THU AND QUITE BREEZY NORTHEAST/EAST
FLOW...THINK THAT THE 18Z RUN MISSED THE MARK A BIT EVEN THOUGH
THERE IS NO READILY DISCERNIBLE IMPULSE ALOFT.  WE WILL NEED TO LET
THE NEXT SHIFT TAKE A LOOK AT THE 00Z RUN BEFORE CHANGING THE
ONGOING FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A LOT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THU.
THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO AN INCREASING COVERAGE OF MVFR CEILINGS.
THERE WILL ALSO BE ATLANTIC SHOWERS PUSHED INLAND BY GUSTY
NORTHEAST/EAST WINDS...WITH CHANCES HIGHEST IN THE SOUTH AND
GRADUALLY SPREADING NORTHWARD ON THU.  THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR A
COASTAL BLOWUP OF CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY FROM ABOUT KVRB-KSUA
TOWARDS SUNRISE AND THROUGH THU.  THIS COULD RESULT IN LOCAL IFR AND
A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT-THU...GUSTY NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW WILL PRODUCE HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT.  THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO
START EASING OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS EARLY THU BUT SEAS WILL BE
SLOW TO SUBSIDE.  ALSO...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A LARGE AREA OF
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS.  SO A
COMBINATION OF WIND/WAVE/WEATHER WILL RESULT IN BAD BOATING
CONDITIONS THROUGH THU.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE OUT 20 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
     SEBASTIAN INLET OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO
     VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS
     FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO
     60 NM OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM
     SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

FORECASTS...LASCODY
IMPACT WX...WEITLICH







000
FXUS62 KMLB 162015
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
415 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT...
A LARGE HI PRES RIDGE E BLANKETING THE ERN CONUS/NW GOMEX WILL PUSH
EAST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MODERATE UPR LVL FLOW THAT HAS STRONG
ZONAL COMPONENT. SFC/LOW LVL WINDS WILL RESPOND BY VEERING TO THE
E/NE. TIGHT PGRAD WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AS THE SRN EDGE OF THE RIDGE
INTERACTS WITH A STALLED FRONTAL TROF OVER S FL/FL STRAITS. NO
DECOUPLING EXPECTED...SO RAPID MODIFICATION OF THE COOL/DRY AIR WILL
OCCUR. MOISTURE TRAPPED BLO A VERY STRONG H90-H70 SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION WILL COMBINE WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW TO KEEP THE LCL
AIRMASS BLANKETED AND WELL MIXED...RESULTING IN MIN TEMPS THAT IN
MANY AREAS WILL BE AS LITTLE AS 5-10F OFF THE MAX TEMPS THIS AFTN...
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. MINS IN THE M/U60S N OF I-4 AND
U60S/L70S TO THE S.

FRONTAL MOISTURE STALLED OVER S FL WILL ALLOW ISOLD/SCT -SHRAS TO
DVLP OVERNIGHT IN THE COASTAL CONVERGENCE ZONE. THE DLVPG ONSHORE
FLOW MAY PUSH OF THESE INTO THE INTERIOR COUNTIES...BUT DEEP SW FLOW
ALOFT WILL KEEP MOST OF THEM OVER THE COASTAL ZONES. WHILE THE DVLPG
ONSHORE FLOW PUSHES THEM WELL INLAND. OVERALL IMPACT SHOULD BE
MINOR.

THURSDAY...
DEEP MOISTURE WITHIN THE FRONTAL TROF WILL WORK ITS WAY BACK TO THE
N AS WIND THRU THE H100-H85 LYR CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE E/NE...
REACHING NEAR SATURATION BLO OVER MOST OF THE CWA BY 18Z WITH PWAT
VALUES BTWN 1.7"-1.9". MEANWHILE...BROAD TROFFING OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS WILL MAINTAIN A SWRLY FLOW ABV H85...A CLASSIC SET UP FOR AN
ISENTROPIC RAIN EVENT. POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY COASTAL RAIN WILL BE
ENHANCED AS THE STRONG ONSHORE FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVENT RAPID
SHRA/TSRA MOTION WHILE SIMULTANEOUSLY GENERATING GOOD MID/UPR LVL
EVACUATION. COLD POOL ALOFT WITH H50 TEMPS BTWN -10C AND -12C MAY
ALLOW AN ISOLD TSRA TO DVLP...BUT DENSE CLOUD WILL LIMIT SFC
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION AND OVERALL STORM POTENTIAL.

RAIN COOLED AIR/CLOUD COVER/ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD KEEP MAX TEMPS IN
THE L/M70S ALONG AND N OF I-4...M/U70S S OF I-4.

FRI-SAT...S BRANCH OF WESTERLIES WILL INFLUENCE FL WX INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH AN ANOMALOUS MID LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFYING OVER THE
STATE FOR APRIL. MDL GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO DIFFER SOMEWHAT WITH
LATEST 12Z RUNS. THE GFS BEING THE OUTLIER IS NOW A BIT MORE
CONSISTENT WITH THE OTHER RUNS...ALTHOUGH LESS AMPLIFIED AND FASTER.
BOTH THE ECMWF AND NAM GENERATE A CLOSED STACKED LOW OVER THE
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA ON SAT WITH ASSCD COLD POOL AND
INSTABILITY POTENTIAL.

ON FRI DIFFUSE WRM FNT WILL PUSH N OF FCST AREA DURING THE DAY AS
UPSTREAM S BRANCH SHRT WAVE BEGINS TO AMPLIFY. SFC LOW OVER THE ERN
GULF WILL DEEPEN IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM JET STREAK AND THERMAL
FORCING. UNCERTAINTIES WILL REMAIN DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN LOW
PLACEMENT BETWEEN ALL THE MDL RUNS. HOWEVER WILL FOLLOW ALONG WITH
MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF ALLOWING MUCH OF FCST AREA GETTING INTO WRM
SECTOR BY LATE IN DAY. COLD POOL ALOFT WILL STILL BE OFF TO THE
WEST...BUT ENOUGH MID LVL INSTAB WILL EXIST FOR WDSPRD CONVECTION.
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL BE GREATEST ALONG WRM FNT. STILL AWAYS OUT IN
TIME...BUT PTTRN SUGGESTS A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH WIND GUSTS AND
PSBL ROTATING STORMS IN PROXIMITY TO SFC SRM FNT.

SAT...ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG STORMS PSBL AS MID LVL COLD POOL AND
STACKED LOW MOVES ACROSS STATE. LIMITING INFLUENCE MAY BE CLOUD
COVER AS CONVECTION WILL NOT BE CAPPED AT ALL AND EARLY CONVECTION
WILL REDUCE POTENTIAL LATER IN DAY. LOW PLACEMENT WILL GOVERN
LOCATION OF BEST SHEAR AND POSITION IS STILL UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.
ENHANCED LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT HAIL IF SUFFICIENT DIURNAL HEATING
IS ALLOWED TO DEVELOP.

PREV DISC...
SUN-TUE...DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE SLOWLY DEPARTING LOW
RESULTING IN DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER/SEASONABLE CONDITIONS. THE
POP-FREE FORECAST FOR SAT NIGHT/SUN IS PREDICATED ON THE LOW GETTING
NUDGED FASTER/FARTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST SUCH THAT ANY WRAP-AROUND
MOISTURE WOULD BE OFFSHORE.

&&

.AVIATION...
N OF KISM-KTIX: THRU 00Z...N/NE SFC WND WITH G22-28KTS...PREVAILING
VFR WITH OCNL CIGS BTWN FL040-060. BTWN 00Z-06Z...CIGS BTWN
FL020-030. BTWN 06Z-14Z...CIGS BTWN FL010-020 WITH BRIEF PDS BLO
FL010...SLGT CHC MVFR VSBYS IN -SHRAS. AFT 14Z...NE SFC WND
G20-25KTS WITH CIGS BTWN FL020-030...SCT-NMRS SHRAS WITH OCNL IFR
VSBYS.

S OF KISM-KTIX: THRU 04Z...N/NE SFC WND G20-25KTS...PREVAILING CIGS
BTWN FL020-030...SLGT CHC MVFR VSBYS IN -SHRA. BTWN 04Z-14Z...
PREVAILING MVFR CIGS BTWN FL010-020...CHC MVFR VSBYS IN SHRAS. AFT
14Z...NE SFC WND G20-25KTS WITH CIGS BTWN FL020-030...OCNL IFR VSBYS
IN NMRS/WDSPRD SHRAS. SLGT CHC TSRAS.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT-THURSDAY...HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AS HIGH
A HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDING OFF THE ERN SEABOARD INTERACT WITH A
STALLED FRONTAL TROF OVER THE FL STRAITS TO GENERATE A FRESH TO
STRONG NE BREEZE OVER THE LCL ATLC. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY S
OF SEBASTIAN INLET AS THE TROF WORKS IS WAY BACK TO THE N...BUT THE
N/NE COMPONENT WILL PUSH AN INCREASING SWELL INTO THE AREA...KEEPING
SEAS IN THE 5-7FT RANGE NEARSHORE AND 6-9FT RANGE OFFSHORE. NO
CHANGES TO THE CURRENT SCA. SCT SHRAS DVLPG OVERNIGHT...BCMG
WIDESPREAD/NUMEROUS ON AFT DAYBREAK THU.

PREV...
SAT-SUN...ANOTHER SURGE OF NRLY FLOW BEHIND THE LOW INDICATED FOR
LATE SAT-SAT NIGHT. DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH AND FWD SPEED OF OF
THE LOW AFTER IT REACHES THE ATLC SIDE...THIS COULD NECESSITATE
ANOTHER SCA FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  63  71  66  78 /  10  50  50  80
MCO  62  75  67  82 /  10  60  50  80
MLB  68  75  70  83 /  20  70  40  80
VRB  68  77  71  83 /  20  70  40  80
LEE  60  74  66  79 /  10  50  50  80
SFB  62  75  66  82 /  10  60  50  80
ORL  62  75  67  82 /  10  60  50  80
FPR  69  78  71  83 /  30  70  40  80

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     VOLUSIA-INDIAN RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA-MARTIN-NORTHERN BREVARD-
     NORTHERN LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN
     BREVARD-SOUTHERN LAKE-ST. LUCIE.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE OUT 20 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
     SEBASTIAN INLET OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO
     VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS
     FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO
     60 NM OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM
     SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...BRAGAW
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...BLOTTMAN













000
FXUS62 KMLB 161425
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1025 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...

COLD FRONT PARKED OVER THE FL STRAITS THIS MRNG WITH A BRISK NRLY
POST FRONTAL SURGE GENERATING RESPECTABLE COLD AIR ADVECTION. MRNG
MIN TEMPS MANAGED TO DROP INTO THE M/U40S N OF I-4 WITH KDAB
REPORTING 48F...KLEE AT 47F. MORNING RAOBS...USAF 915HZ PROFILER...
AND THE KJAX/KMLB VAD WIND PROFILERS ALL SHOWING 25-30KT WINDS BTWN
THE SFC AND 3KFT. TIGHT POST FRNTL SFC PGRAD IN PLACE AS WELL WITH
KJAX-KMFL ARND 6MB...KDAB-KPBI ARND 4MB. GEOSTROPHIC APPROX TABLES
SHOW THIS WILL SUPPORT 20-25KT SFC WNDS. ATTM...ONLY THE COASTAL
SITES ARE GUSTING IN THE 20-25MPH RANGE...BUT SHOULD PICK UP OVER
THE INTERIOR BY MIDDAY...ESP N OF KISM-KTIX WHERE THE FRONTAL
STRATUS BAND HAS CLEARED. WILL EXPAND THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY TO
INCLUDE ALL COUNTIES.

A STRONG POST FRONTAL SUBSIDENCE INVERSION HAS TRAPPED A FAIR AMOUNT
OF MOISTURE BLO H90. FRONTAL STRATUS DECK WILL REMAIN LARGELY INTACT
S OF KISM-KTIX. MID MRNG TEMPS RANGING FROM THE M/U50S ALONG AND N
OF I-4...L/M60S TO THE S. GIVEN COMBINATION OF CLOUD COVER AND COOL
AIR ADVECTION IN PLACE...AFTN TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THEIR
ADVERTISED LVLS...WILL KNOCK A FEW DEG OFF THE MAX TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...
N OF KISM-KTIX: THRU 18Z...SFC WNDS BCMG N/NE WITH G20-25KTS CONTG
THRU 00Z. PREVAILING VFR THRU 00Z WITH OCNL CIGS BTWN FL040-060.
BTWN 00Z-04Z...MVFR CIGS BTWN FL020-030...AFT 04Z MVFR CIGS BTWN
FL010-020 WITH BRIEF PDS BLO FL010...CHC MVFR VSBYS IN -SHRAS.

S OF KISM-KTIX: THRU 04Z...N/NE SFC WND G20-25KTS...PREVAILING MVFR
CIGS BTWN FL020-030 WITH OCNL BINOVC...SLGT CHC MVFR VSBYS IN -SHRA.
AFT 04Z...PREVAILING MVFR CIGS BTWN FL010-020...CHC MVFR VSBYS IN
SHRAS.

&&

MARINE...
HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS WITH LCL DATA/BUOY-C-MAN STATIONS
MEASURING SUSTAINED WINDS BTWN 15-25KTS...NEARSHORE SEAS 5-6FT WITH
DOMINANT PDS ARND 6SEC...OFFSHORE SEAS BTWN 6-7FT WITH DOMINANT PDS
ARND 7SEC. SEAS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 5-7FT NEARSHORE AND 8-9FT
OFFSHORE AS NRLY SFC/BNDRY LYR WINDS VEER TO THE NE...LCL PGRAD WILL
SUPPORT A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE. VERY STEEP WAVES AS THE OPPOSING
NRLY WIND FIELD/SRLY GULF STREAM WILL KEEP DOMINANT PDS AOB 7SEC. NO
CHANGES TO THE CURRENT SCA.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     VOLUSIA-INDIAN RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA-MARTIN-NORTHERN BREVARD-
     NORTHERN LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN
     BREVARD-SOUTHERN LAKE-ST. LUCIE.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE OUT 20 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
     SEBASTIAN INLET OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO
     VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS
     FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO
     60 NM OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM
     SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...BRAGAW
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...BLOTTMAN







000
FXUS62 KMLB 160817
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
415 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...

...BREEZY AND UNSETTLED WITH HIGH RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK...

TODAY-TONIGHT...SURFACE FRONT HAS MADE ITS WAS DOWN TO LAKE
OKEECHOBEE EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS TRACING ITS
PATH OVER THE LOCAL ATLANTIC AND BREEZY NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS
OVERSPREADING THE PENINSULA. MODELS HAVE THE FRONT CLEARING THE
STATE BY DAYBREAK AS THE SURFACE HIGH CENTER REACHES THE MID
ATLANTIC AT THE SAME TIME. WINDS WILL BE VEERING NORTHEAST AFTER
DAYBREAK...EFFECTIVELY ENDING THE BRIEF POST FRONTAL COOL AIR
ADVECTION CURRENTLY TAKING PLACE.

DEWPOINTS HAVE ALREADY DROPPED INTO THE MID-UPPER 50S AS FAR SOUTH
AS MELBOURNE...INDICATING THAT ENOUGH DRY AIR HAS WORKED ITS WAY
INTO AT LEAST THE NORTH FOR A DRY START TO THE DAY. THERE WILL BE
SOME LINGERING LOW CLOUD THAT SHOULD BE ABLE TO MIX OUT AT LEAST
OVER THE INTERIOR/VOLUSIA COAST WHERE AIRMASS ALOFT HAS DRIED OUT
SIGNIFICANTLY. FOR THE REST OF THE REGION...WE MAY BE HARD PRESSED
TO SEE MORE THAN A FEW PEAKS OF SUN EARLY BEFORE ONSHORE WIND PUSH
SPREADS CLOUDINESS BACK INLAND INTO THE AFTERNOON.

THE QUESTION REMAIN HOW MUCH FRONTAL MOISTURE WILL BE ABLE TO RETURN
TODAY...AND MODELS SEEM TO BE HOLDING OFF ON ANY SIGNIFICANT PUSH
UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY. HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FOR THE INTERIOR
AND VOLUSIA COAST...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR THE LOCAL
ATLANTIC...BREVARD AND TREASURE COASTS BY THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THE
MAIN FOCUS FOR ANY PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO BE THE TREASURE COAST IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE STALLED FRONT.

THE WESTERN ATLANTIC MID LEVEL RIDGE REASSERTS ITSELF TONIGHT
LIFTING THE FRONTAL MOISTURE BACK INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA OVERNIGHT.
GFS SHOWS FAIRLY GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT AS THE FRONT MIGRATES BACK
NORTH WHICH IN COMBINATION WITH 15-20KT LOW LEVEL FLOW AND PWATS IN
THE 1.70-1.80" RANGE MAY BE ABLE TO SET UP A FEW HEAVY COASTAL
PRECIP BANDS.

CLOUD COVER AND COOL ADVECTION KEEPING TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER 70S IN
MOST LOCATIONS...WITH LOW 70S ALONG THE VOLUSIA/NORTH BREVARD COAST.
MUCH MILDER OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S ALONG THE
COAST AND MID 60S INLAND. IT WILL ALSO BE ANOTHER BREEZY DAY...AND A
LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL VOLUSIA AND BREVARD
COUNTIES.

THU-SAT...THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN CONTINUE TO BE A SOUTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS FL ON FRI-FRI NIGHT...AND JUST HOW MUCH PHASING
OCCURS WITH A PIECE OF ENERGY EMBEDDED IN THE BASE OF A NRN STREAM
TROUGH ONCE THE FORMER FEATURE REACHES FL. WHILE PREVIOUS FORECASTS
FAVORED A MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLN...THE GFS IS NOW ALONE IN SHOWING
THIS WHILE THE ECM/UKM AND EVEN THE OFT-DISREGARDED NAM ARE SHOWING
A SLOWER AND MORE PHASED/AMPLIFIED/CUTOFF SYSTEM...WHICH WOULD BRING
A STRONGER/SLOWER MOVING SURFACE FEATURE OVER THE STATE AND A MORE
PROTRACTED RAIN EVENT. HENCE...IT NOW SEEMS PRUDENT TO GO WITH THE
MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE.

THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH WILL BEGIN TO CREEP NWD
THU NIGHT INTO FRI AS UPGLIDE PATTERN BEGINS TO DEVELOP IN ADVANCE
OF MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE GULF COAST AND NRN
GOMEX. A SFC WAVE OR WEAK LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL GOMEX THU
NIGHT AND LOOKS TO GET PULLED NEWD UNDERNEATH (OR NEARLY SO) THE H50
TROUGH...WHICH WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF CUTTING OFF...BY FRI. THE
NEARLY STACKED SYSTEM WILL TURN MORE EWD (OR EVEN ESEWD) AND MOVE
FROM THE NERN GOMEX ACROSS THE NRN/CTRL PENINSULA LATE FRI THROUGH
EARLY SAT...AND THEN OFFSHORE LATER IN THE DAY.

FAIRLY DECENT SWATH OF RAINFALL WILL DEVELOP NEAR/NORTH OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THU NIGHT INTO FRI AS IT LIFTS NWD THROUGH THE
PENINSULA...FOLLOWED BY THE LOW AND ASCD COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
(PERHAPS PRECEDED BY A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH/SQLN) FRI EVENING/NIGHT.
POPS THROUGH MOST OF THIS PERIOD HAVE BEEN HIKED UP ACCORDINGLY.
WENT BELOW MOS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE FOR MAXES EACH DAY OWING TO
EXPECTED CLOUDS AND PRECIP.

SUN-TUE...DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE SLOWLY DEPARTING LOW
RESULTING IN DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER/SEASONABLE CONDITIONS. THE
POP-FREE FORECAST FOR SAT NIGHT/SUN IS PREDICATED ON THE LOW GETTING
NUDGED FASTER/FARTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST SUCH THAT ANY WRAP-AROUND
MOISTURE WOULD BE OFFSHORE.

&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING...TEMPO IN AREAS NORTH
OF I-4 WHERE POST FRONTAL N-NW WINDS ARE AROUND 10KTS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 20KTS. TOUGH CIG FORECAST FOR TODAY...BUT GENERALLY EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS FOR INTERIOR TAF SITES INITIALLY WITH BRIEF PERIOD AT
COASTAL SITES NORTH OF KMLB. TREASURE COAST SITES EXPECTED TO KEEP
CIGS ALL DAY THOUGH MAY SEE PERIOD 10Z-14Z WHERE CIGS BECOME MORE
TEMPO AS INITIAL NORTHERLY WIND PUSH REACHES THESE AREAS.
OTHERWISE...COASTAL SITES WILL SEE PREVAILING CIGS FL025-035 AFTER
14Z SPREADING INLAND AFTER 19Z. GUSTY NORTH WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING
BECOMING NE AFTER 14Z WITH SUSTAINED 12-15KT AT COAST AND GUSTS AS
HIGH AS 25KTS.

MOSTLY DRY DAY...BUT INCREASING SHRA LIFTING BACK INTO AREAS SOUTH
OF KVRB AFTER 20Z AND OVERSPREADING REST OF COAST AFTER 17/02Z.

&&

MARINE...TODAY-TONIGHT...GUSTY NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS 20-25KTS HAVE
OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE WATERS BEHIND FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS MORNING
AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST LATE MORNING AS FLOW VEERS
NORTHEAST. STRONGEST WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN NORTH OF SEBASTIAN
INLET...WINDS OFFSHORE TREASURE COAST MAY BE CLOSER TO 15-20KTS WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS ESPECIALLY LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AS FRONT LIFTS
BACK TO THE NORTH.

SEAS BUILDING TO 8-9FT OVER THE GULF STREAM BY THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO
THE BRISK NE FLOW WITH 4-7FT CLOSER TO THE COAST. DOMINANT PERIODS
SHORT AND CHOPPY AT 5-7SEC.

THU-SUN...STOUT ONSHORE FLOW EARLY ON THU WILL GRADUALLY VEER AND
WEAKEN SLIGHTLY FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE
REGION. SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED INTO THU NIGHT FOR AREAS NORTH OF
SEBASTIAN INLET...AND A MODERATE SRLY BREEZE ON THE WARM SECTOR IS
LIKELY TO KEEP SEAS ELEVATED TO AT LEAST WHERE A CAUTIONARY STMT
WILL STILL BE NEEDED THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER SURGE OF NRLY FLOW
BEHIND THE LOW INDICATED FOR LATE SAT-SAT NIGHT. DEPENDING ON THE
STRENGTH AND FWD SPEED OF OF THE LOW AFTER IT REACHES THE ATLC
SIDE...THIS COULD NECESSITATE ANOTHER SCA FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  70  66  73  67 /  10  30  50  50
MCO  75  65  77  66 /  10  20  50  50
MLB  76  70  77  70 /  10  40  50  40
VRB  76  70  79  71 /  10  40  50  40
LEE  74  62  74  65 /   0  20  50  50
SFB  73  64  74  66 /  10  20  50  50
ORL  75  64  75  67 /  10  20  50  50
FPR  75  70  79  71 /  20  40  50  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM UNTIL 7 PM EDT TODAY FOR COASTAL
     VOLUSIA-NORTHERN BREVARD-SOUTHERN BREVARD.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE OUT 20 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
     SEBASTIAN INLET OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO
     VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS
     FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO
     60 NM OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM
     SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...MOSES
LONG TERM....CRISTALDI







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