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000
FXUS62 KMLB 231558 AAA
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1055 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...

SFC OBS INDICATE THE WARM FRONT HAS JUMPED NORTH OF THE AREA PLACING
EC FL SQUARELY IN THE WARM SECTOR. LOW CLOUDS FROM OSCEOLA/BREVARD
NORTHWARD WILL LIFT AND ALLOW SOME SFC HEATING. THIS WILL PRODUCE
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WHICH SHOULD COME UP JUST
SHORT OF RECORD HIGHS. IT WILL ALSO BE QUITE HUMID WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S.

DESPITE THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY...HAVE LOWERED RAIN CHANCES THE REST
OF THE DAY. HAVE DRAWN 20 POP ALONG THE TREASURE COAST AND 30 POP
ELSEWHERE. WITH THE WARM FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA THERE DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE ANY UPSTREAM TRIGGER FOR STORMS...EXCEPT DIURNAL
HEATING AND SOME LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE DEVELOPING OVER THE INTERIOR.
WHILE THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FL
PANHANDLE AND SOUTH GA...IT WILL NOT BE DIFFICULT FOR STORMS TO
PRODUCE GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS A THEY LIFT N/NE AT 35 TO 40 MPH. ONE
OR TWO STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH THIS AFTN
MAINLY OSCEOLA NORTHWARD. CURRENT HWO HANDLES THIS WELL.


&&

.AVIATION...
HAVE ALLOWED LLWS TO EXPIRE IN THE TAFS AS MIXING BRINGS SOME OF THE
STRONGER WINDS DOWN TO THE SFC. MVFR CIGS MLB NORTHWARD WILL
GRADUALLY LIFT INTO VFR CATEGORY (035-045AGL) BY 18Z. SSE WINDS
15-18KT GUSTING TO 23-26KT. DIURNAL HEATING WILL GENERATE SOME AFTN
CONVECTION MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR LIFTING N/NE. WILL NOT ADD TEMPO
GROUP YET AS COVERAGE LOOKS LOW BUT GIVEN ENOUGH SFC HEATING MAY
UPGRADE VCSH TO VCTS IN THE 18Z ISSUANCE. IFR/LIFR CIGS SHOULD
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT ACROSS MOST/ALL TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
SOLID ADVISORY CONDS CONTINUE OVER THE ATLC WATERS WITH ROUGH SURF.
SE WINDS 25KT WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO 30KT WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE
THIS AFTN AND SHIFT TO S/SE TONIGHT. THIS WILL CARRY THE HIGHER SEAS
FARTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST AS ONSHORE COMPONENT BECOMES LONGSHORE
AND EVENTUALLY SLIGHTLY OFFSHORE. CURRENT PLAN IS TO ALLOW SCA NEAR
SHORE TO EXPIRE AT 4PM BUT WILL REASSESS THAT DECISION BASED ON
CONDITIONS AND LATEST SEAS FCST FROM SWAN/NOAA WAVEWATCH.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  82  71  80  63 /  50  40  40  40
MCO  84  69  83  66 /  50  30  40  30
MLB  83  73  82  69 /  50  30  30  40
VRB  83  73  82  70 /  50  30  20  40
LEE  83  69  82  64 /  50  40  40  30
SFB  83  70  82  64 /  50  30  40  30
ORL  83  70  83  66 /  50  30  40  30
FPR  83  72  82  69 /  50  30  20  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE
     OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER
     INLET OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY
     LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST MONDAY FOR WATERS FROM
     FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO
     60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
     SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

KELLY/SEDLOCK











000
FXUS62 KMLB 231558 AAA
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1055 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...

SFC OBS INDICATE THE WARM FRONT HAS JUMPED NORTH OF THE AREA PLACING
EC FL SQUARELY IN THE WARM SECTOR. LOW CLOUDS FROM OSCEOLA/BREVARD
NORTHWARD WILL LIFT AND ALLOW SOME SFC HEATING. THIS WILL PRODUCE
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WHICH SHOULD COME UP JUST
SHORT OF RECORD HIGHS. IT WILL ALSO BE QUITE HUMID WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S.

DESPITE THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY...HAVE LOWERED RAIN CHANCES THE REST
OF THE DAY. HAVE DRAWN 20 POP ALONG THE TREASURE COAST AND 30 POP
ELSEWHERE. WITH THE WARM FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA THERE DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE ANY UPSTREAM TRIGGER FOR STORMS...EXCEPT DIURNAL
HEATING AND SOME LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE DEVELOPING OVER THE INTERIOR.
WHILE THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FL
PANHANDLE AND SOUTH GA...IT WILL NOT BE DIFFICULT FOR STORMS TO
PRODUCE GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS A THEY LIFT N/NE AT 35 TO 40 MPH. ONE
OR TWO STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH THIS AFTN
MAINLY OSCEOLA NORTHWARD. CURRENT HWO HANDLES THIS WELL.


&&

.AVIATION...
HAVE ALLOWED LLWS TO EXPIRE IN THE TAFS AS MIXING BRINGS SOME OF THE
STRONGER WINDS DOWN TO THE SFC. MVFR CIGS MLB NORTHWARD WILL
GRADUALLY LIFT INTO VFR CATEGORY (035-045AGL) BY 18Z. SSE WINDS
15-18KT GUSTING TO 23-26KT. DIURNAL HEATING WILL GENERATE SOME AFTN
CONVECTION MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR LIFTING N/NE. WILL NOT ADD TEMPO
GROUP YET AS COVERAGE LOOKS LOW BUT GIVEN ENOUGH SFC HEATING MAY
UPGRADE VCSH TO VCTS IN THE 18Z ISSUANCE. IFR/LIFR CIGS SHOULD
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT ACROSS MOST/ALL TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
SOLID ADVISORY CONDS CONTINUE OVER THE ATLC WATERS WITH ROUGH SURF.
SE WINDS 25KT WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO 30KT WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE
THIS AFTN AND SHIFT TO S/SE TONIGHT. THIS WILL CARRY THE HIGHER SEAS
FARTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST AS ONSHORE COMPONENT BECOMES LONGSHORE
AND EVENTUALLY SLIGHTLY OFFSHORE. CURRENT PLAN IS TO ALLOW SCA NEAR
SHORE TO EXPIRE AT 4PM BUT WILL REASSESS THAT DECISION BASED ON
CONDITIONS AND LATEST SEAS FCST FROM SWAN/NOAA WAVEWATCH.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  82  71  80  63 /  50  40  40  40
MCO  84  69  83  66 /  50  30  40  30
MLB  83  73  82  69 /  50  30  30  40
VRB  83  73  82  70 /  50  30  20  40
LEE  83  69  82  64 /  50  40  40  30
SFB  83  70  82  64 /  50  30  40  30
ORL  83  70  83  66 /  50  30  40  30
FPR  83  72  82  69 /  50  30  20  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE
     OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER
     INLET OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY
     LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST MONDAY FOR WATERS FROM
     FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO
     60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
     SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

KELLY/SEDLOCK












000
FXUS62 KMLB 230945 AAA
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
445 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...

...ROUGH BOATING/BEACH CONDITIONS CONTINUE...

CURRENT...A WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSE IS LOCATED OVER THE FL PANHANDLE
IS BEING EJECTED NEWD BY AN UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE KICKER. LARGE SWATH
OF RAIN AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE COVERS NORTH FL AND POINTS NORTH/NE.
FARTHER SOUTH THE SURFACE WARM FRONT LOOKS TO BE NEAR LAKE OKEE WITH
STRONG ONSHORE FLOW RAPIDLY MODIFYING THE INCREASINGLY SHALLOW
PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS. CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN/ SPRINKLES/DRIZZLE
PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA WITH AN EMBEDDED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWER
BAND WORKING ITS WAY NWD OVER THE TREASURE COAST. BREEZY CONDITIONS
PREVAIL OVER THE SPACE AND TREASURE COAST COUNTIES WITH SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS 15-20 MPH...GUSTING TO 25-30 MPH... ESPECIALLY CLOSE
TO THE COAST. NOT AT ALL SURPRISINGLY...GIVEN THE CLOUDS/WINDS TEMPS
HAVE SHOWN ABSOLUTELY NO NOCTURNAL DROP...68-71F N/W OF LAKE
KISM-KTIX...AND 72-75F TO THE S/E.

TODAY...UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH TAKE ON NEGATIVE TILT AND TURNS
NEWD LIKE ITS PREDECESSOR...MOVING RAPIDLY NEWD FROM THE LWR MS VLY
BY MID DAY...INTO THE TN VALLEY BY 00Z...THEN DRAGGING A DEFORMING
MID LEVEL VORT AXIS SEWD ACROSS THE PENINSULA TONIGHT. AT THE
SURFACE...BEST UPGLIDE WILL SHIFT NWD...CARRYING THICKER MULTI
LAYERED CLOUDS WITH IT. AIDED BY WHAT SHOULD BE DIURNAL HEATING...
EXPECT WARM FRONT TO  "JUMP" NWD ACROSS THE CTRL PENINSULA...WITH
WINDS SHIFTING TO SE-SSE BY THIS AFTERNOON. SHOULD SEE DEVELOPMENT
OF SCATTERED CONVECTION AS THE LIGHTER STRATIFORM RAINS MOVE NWD OUT
OF THE AREA. TEMPS SHOULD REACH L-M80S ALL AREAS. SHOULD BE FAIRLY
BREEZY TODAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING...AS LCL PGRAD REMAINS
TIGHT.

TONIGHT...DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD END A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET
WITH SFC FLOW VEERING TO SRLY AND DECREASING. SETUP LOOKS GOOD FOR
LATE NIGHT LOW CLOUDS - PERHAPS SOME LOCAL MIST/FOG...HOWEVER WINDS
AT THE SFC ESPECIALLY JUST OFF THE DECK DON`T LOOK AT ALL FAVORABLE
FOR SIGNIFICANT FOG. WARM WITH MINS IN THE U60S-L70S.

MON-MON NIGHT...AN UNSETTLED WX PD INTO MIDWEEK AS A SHORT WAVE TROF
EXTENDING DOWN THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES FROM SASKATCHEWAN TO THE
RIO GRAND VALLEY GRINDS ITS WAY INTO THE WRN FLANK OF A LARGE HI
PRES RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC TO THE MS RIVER VALLEY. THE
H30-H20 JET OVER THE E PAC CONTINUES TO HOLD A STRONG ZONAL
COMPONENT BUT ITS LEADING EDGE IS BEGINNING TO DIG INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA. WITH A MAX SPEED OF 140KTS IMPINGING ON THE PAC NW AND
ITS 100KT ISOTACH UNBROKEN CLEAR BACK TO JAPAN...THERE WILL BE NO
ENERGY SHORTAGE FOR THE STORM SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS.

THE WRN JET STREAK WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY AS PUSHES E...FORCING
THE STORM SYSTEM INTO THE GREAT LAKES AS IT BOMBS OUT INTO A 975MB
LOW BY DAYBREAK MON. HOWEVER...BY THE TIME IT DOES...ENERGY FROM THE
WRN JET WILL HAVE ROUNDED THE BASE OF THE SHORT WAVE TROF...ALLOWING
THE LIFTING SIDE OF THE SHORT WAVE TO STRENGTHEN SUBSTANTIALLY. GFS
ESTIMATING THE H30-H20 JET INCREASING TO 150KTS OVER THE MID/DEEP
SOUTH BY 00Z TUE. HOWEVER...AS IMPRESSIVE AS IT SOUNDS...THIS
LIFTING ORIENTATION OF THE JET WILL ALL BUT GUARANTEE THE SYSTEM
WILL LIFT INTO ERN CANADA TOO QUICKLY TO PROVIDE ANY SUPPORT TO THE
SRN EXTENSION OF ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT...LEAVING IT WITH ONLY ITS
OWN MOMENTUM FOR FORWARD PROGRESS. GIVEN THE POSITION OF THE ATLC
RIDGE...THIS PROGRESS WILL BE SLOW.

SHALLOW FROPA WILL FORCE H100-H90 WINDS TO VEER FROM SW ON MON TO NE
BY DAYBREAK TUE. THE TROF WILL ERODE THE WRN FLANK OF THE ATLC
RIDGE...BUT WILL SACRIFICE ITS FORWARD MOTION TO DO SO. MEANWHILE...
AN H85-H50 ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NE OF THE BAHAMA BANK WILL MAINTAIN
AN EXISTING W/SW FLOW THRU THE MID LYRS THAT WILL GENERATE A LOW/MID
LVL ISENTROPIC LIFT INTO WED AFTN.

DRY AIR THRU THE H85-H50 LYR WILL REMAIN THRU MON AFTN AS THE SW
FLOW TAPS A DRY TONGUE OVER THE NW CARIB/YUCATAN PENINSULA. WHILE
THIS WILL LIMIT POPS TO THE 20-40PCT RANGE...IT ALSO WILL ENHANCE
TSTM POTENTIAL THRU MON AFTN...ESPECIALLY AS H70-H50 LAPSE RATES AOA
7C/KM OVER THE GOMEX BEGIN TO FILTER INTO THE PENINSULA. HOWEVER...
THE H50 LYR WILL UNDERGO WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION THAT WILL PUSH THE
-10C ISOTHERM WELL NW OF THE CENTRAL FL...SO OVERALL STRONG/SVR WX
THREAT WILL REMAIN LOW.

SRLY WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS ABV AVG...MAXES L/M80S AND MINS M/U60S...
EXCEPT N70 ALONG THE TREASURE COAST.

TUE-WED...AIRMASS WILL BECOME SATURATED ON TUE AS DEEP MOISTURE OVER
THE CENTRAL/ERN CARIB ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE ATLC RIDGE AND LIFTS N
INTO FL...ERODING THE MID LVL DRY AIR. WITH MOISTURE INCREASING IN
THE PRESENCE OF STRONG AND PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC LIFT AND A PSEUDO-
STATIONARY FRONT...PRECIP WILL BE LIKELY FROM DAYBREAK 12Z TUE THRU
00Z THU. WHILE THE THERMAL PROFILE DOES NOT INDICATE SVR WX... THE
CUMULATIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL WILL BE HIGH. INITIAL QPF NUMBERS FROM
GFS SEEM HIGH...BUT ANTICIPATE 36HR RAINFALL AMOUNTS BTWN 1-2" WILL
BE COMMON WITH LCL AMOUNTS UP TO 3" PSBL.

SRLY FLOW WILL PUSH MON AFTN TEMPS WELL ABV AVG...MAXES INTO THE
L/M80S AND MINS IN THE M/U60S. TEMPS DROPPING TUE-WED AS THE FRONT
SAGS THRU CENTRAL FL WITH THICK CLOUD COVER. TEMPS IN MANY AREAS MAY
NOT RANGE BY MORE THAN 10F DEG DEPENDING ON HOW FAR S THE FRONT
MANAGES TO PENETRATE. MAXES IN THE L/M70S TUE...MINS TUE NIGHT
M/U50S EXCEPT M/U60S ALONG THE TREASURE COAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
MAXES WED L/M60 EXCEPT U60S/L70S ALONG THE TREASURE COAST.

THU-SAT...
A 140KT ISOTACH EXTENDING FROM GA/AL INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
WILL GENERATE STRONG UPR LVL DIVERGENCE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH/MID ATLC
REGION THAT WILL INDUCE A NEW SFC LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY
DAYBREAK WED. EMBEDDED WITH SUCH A STRONG SWRLY FLOW...THE LOW WILL
RACE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY DAYBREAK THU AND PROVIDE THE
TORQUE NECESSARY TO PULL THE COLD FRONT INTO THE FL STRAITS. THE
POST-FRONTAL RIDGE OVER THE GOMEX WILL PRODUCE A DEEP NWRLY FLOW
THAT WILL GENERATE A COOL/DRY AIR ADVECTION PATTERN THAT WILL
PREVAIL THRU THE END OF THE WEEK.

NRLY WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS AOB CLIMO AVG THRU FRI NIGHT WITH MAX
TEMPS M/U60S...MIN TEMPS M/U40S INTERIOR AND U40/M50S ALONG THE
COAST. WINDS WILL VEER TO NE BY THE WEEKEND AS THE POST FRONTAL
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE W ATLC. THE ONSHORE COMPONENT WILL PUSH OCEAN
MODIFIED AIR BACK ONSHORE...ALLOWING MAX TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE
L/M70S SAT AFTN.

&&

.AVIATION...KXMR PROFILER DATA CONTINUES TO SHOW A LLWS PROFILE WITH
VEERING WINDS AT 0.5 TO 1.0KFT 32-35KT FROM 120-130 DEGREES. SURFACE
WINDS ALONG THE COAST LOOK A LITTLE TOO STRONG/GUSTY ATTM FOR THE
NECESSARY SHEAR VALUES...BUT INLAND ANOTHER STORY. 06Z TAF PACKAGE
MAINTAINED LLWS THROUGH EARLY MORNING. WILL RE-EVALUATE AROUND 11Z.

OTRW...PREVAILING MVFR CIGS WITH AREAS VSBYS NR 4-5SM IN LIGHT
PRECIP AND MIST. POCKETS OF IFR CIGS FEW AND FAR BETWEEN (MCO ATTM).
DON`T EXPECT TO SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF IFR CIGS AFTER SUNRISE AS
BLYR WARM/MIXES AND THE WARM FRONT SHIFT RAPIDLY NWD. GUSTY SE-SSE
WINDS FROM 130-160/15-18KT GUSTING TO 23-26KT...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...NO CHGS. SOLID SCA CONDITIONS IN PLACE...AND LOCAL BUOY
OBS LAST EVENING/EARLY THIS MORNING HAVE FLIRTED WITH HIGH SURF
ADV CRITERIA (6-7FT@41113/8-9FT@41114). PLAN TO ISSUE ANOTHER
STRONGLY WORDED STATEMENT FOR RIPS/ROUGH SURF THIS MORNING. OTRW...
ESE-SE WINDS 20-25KT WITH FQT GUSTS TO 30KT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
TO SSE-SRLY TONIGHT. THIS WILL CARRY THE HIGHER SEAS FARTHER AWAY
FROM THE COAST AS ONSHORE COMPONENT BECOMES LONGSHORE AND EVENTUALLY
SLIGHTLY OFFSHORE.

MON-MON NIGHT...FRONTAL BNDRY PUSHING INTO THE N FL PENINSULA WILL
BECOME PSEUDO-STATIONARY AS IT PLOWS INTO THE WRN FLANK OF A LARGE
RIDGE AXIS OVER THE WRN ATLC. A GENTLE TO MODERATE SRLY BREEZE WILL
PREVAIL THRU THE DAY...BCMG LIGHT TO GENTLE W/SW AFT SUNSET...BCMG
GENTLE TO MODERATE W/NW AFT MIDNIGHT AS THE BNDRY SAGS INTO CENTRAL
FL. SEAS 4-5FT NEARSHORE AND 5-7FT OFFSHORE THRU LATE AFTN...
SUBSIDING TO 3-4FT NEARSHORE AND 4-5FT OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...
SFC/BNDRY LYR WINDS WILL VEER TO A NERLY REGIME AS THE FRNTL BNDRY
STALLS IN THE VCNTY OF I-4/CAPE CANAVERAL. SPEEDS/DIRECTIONS WILL BE
VRBL BASED ON HOW FAR S THE FRONT PENETRATES BEFORE STALLING. AREAS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL SEE A PREVAILING LIGHT TO GENTLE E/NE
BREEZE WITH SEAS 2-4FT...BEHIND THE FRONT A PREVAILING MODERATE TO
FRESH N/NE BREEZE WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 5-7FT. WILL FOCUS THE
BREAKPOINT ON SEBASTIAN INLET...THOUGH THIS MAY FLUCTUATE WITH
LATER FCSTS.

WED-WED NIGHT...
A SFC SLOW IS EXPECTED TO DVLP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY DAYBREAK
WED AND LIFT RAPIDLY UP THE ERN SEABOARD...REACHING THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES BY DAYBREAK THU. THIS LOW WILL PULL THE COLD FRONT CLEAR
OF THE FL PENINSULA ARND SUNSET WED EVNG. THE POST FRONTAL HI PRES
RIDGE WILL INTERACT WITH THE DEPARTING FRNTL TROF TO GENERATE A
FRESH TO STRONG N/NW BREEZE THRU WED WITH 5-7FT SEAS NEARSHORE AND
8-10FT SEAS OFFSHORE.

THU-THU NIGHT...
SFC PGRAD WILL SLACKEN AS THE POST-FRONTAL RIDGE LIFTS INTO THE DEEP
SOUTH...ALLOWING WINDS THE NRLY WINDS TO DIMINISH TO A MODERATE TO
FREEZE BREEZE BY MIDDAY...THEN A GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZE
OVERNIGHT. HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY IN THE GULF
STREAM WHERE THE NRLY WINDS/SRLY CURRENT WILL GENERATE SQUARE WAVES.
SEAS 4-6FT NEARSHORE AND 6-8FT OFFSHORE THRU THE DAY...SUBSIDING TO
3-5FT NEARSHORE AND 4-6FT OFFSHORE AFT SUNSET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  82  71  80  63 /  50  40  40  40
MCO  84  69  83  66 /  50  30  40  30
MLB  83  73  82  69 /  50  30  30  40
VRB  83  73  82  70 /  50  30  20  40
LEE  83  69  82  64 /  50  40  40  30
SFB  83  70  82  64 /  50  30  40  30
ORL  83  70  83  66 /  50  30  40  30
FPR  83  72  82  69 /  50  30  20  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE
     OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER
     INLET OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY
     LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST MONDAY FOR WATERS FROM
     FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO
     60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
     SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...CRISTALDI
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX....BRAGAW











000
FXUS62 KMLB 230945 AAA
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
445 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...

...ROUGH BOATING/BEACH CONDITIONS CONTINUE...

CURRENT...A WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSE IS LOCATED OVER THE FL PANHANDLE
IS BEING EJECTED NEWD BY AN UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE KICKER. LARGE SWATH
OF RAIN AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE COVERS NORTH FL AND POINTS NORTH/NE.
FARTHER SOUTH THE SURFACE WARM FRONT LOOKS TO BE NEAR LAKE OKEE WITH
STRONG ONSHORE FLOW RAPIDLY MODIFYING THE INCREASINGLY SHALLOW
PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS. CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN/ SPRINKLES/DRIZZLE
PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA WITH AN EMBEDDED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWER
BAND WORKING ITS WAY NWD OVER THE TREASURE COAST. BREEZY CONDITIONS
PREVAIL OVER THE SPACE AND TREASURE COAST COUNTIES WITH SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS 15-20 MPH...GUSTING TO 25-30 MPH... ESPECIALLY CLOSE
TO THE COAST. NOT AT ALL SURPRISINGLY...GIVEN THE CLOUDS/WINDS TEMPS
HAVE SHOWN ABSOLUTELY NO NOCTURNAL DROP...68-71F N/W OF LAKE
KISM-KTIX...AND 72-75F TO THE S/E.

TODAY...UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH TAKE ON NEGATIVE TILT AND TURNS
NEWD LIKE ITS PREDECESSOR...MOVING RAPIDLY NEWD FROM THE LWR MS VLY
BY MID DAY...INTO THE TN VALLEY BY 00Z...THEN DRAGGING A DEFORMING
MID LEVEL VORT AXIS SEWD ACROSS THE PENINSULA TONIGHT. AT THE
SURFACE...BEST UPGLIDE WILL SHIFT NWD...CARRYING THICKER MULTI
LAYERED CLOUDS WITH IT. AIDED BY WHAT SHOULD BE DIURNAL HEATING...
EXPECT WARM FRONT TO  "JUMP" NWD ACROSS THE CTRL PENINSULA...WITH
WINDS SHIFTING TO SE-SSE BY THIS AFTERNOON. SHOULD SEE DEVELOPMENT
OF SCATTERED CONVECTION AS THE LIGHTER STRATIFORM RAINS MOVE NWD OUT
OF THE AREA. TEMPS SHOULD REACH L-M80S ALL AREAS. SHOULD BE FAIRLY
BREEZY TODAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING...AS LCL PGRAD REMAINS
TIGHT.

TONIGHT...DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD END A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET
WITH SFC FLOW VEERING TO SRLY AND DECREASING. SETUP LOOKS GOOD FOR
LATE NIGHT LOW CLOUDS - PERHAPS SOME LOCAL MIST/FOG...HOWEVER WINDS
AT THE SFC ESPECIALLY JUST OFF THE DECK DON`T LOOK AT ALL FAVORABLE
FOR SIGNIFICANT FOG. WARM WITH MINS IN THE U60S-L70S.

MON-MON NIGHT...AN UNSETTLED WX PD INTO MIDWEEK AS A SHORT WAVE TROF
EXTENDING DOWN THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES FROM SASKATCHEWAN TO THE
RIO GRAND VALLEY GRINDS ITS WAY INTO THE WRN FLANK OF A LARGE HI
PRES RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC TO THE MS RIVER VALLEY. THE
H30-H20 JET OVER THE E PAC CONTINUES TO HOLD A STRONG ZONAL
COMPONENT BUT ITS LEADING EDGE IS BEGINNING TO DIG INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA. WITH A MAX SPEED OF 140KTS IMPINGING ON THE PAC NW AND
ITS 100KT ISOTACH UNBROKEN CLEAR BACK TO JAPAN...THERE WILL BE NO
ENERGY SHORTAGE FOR THE STORM SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS.

THE WRN JET STREAK WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY AS PUSHES E...FORCING
THE STORM SYSTEM INTO THE GREAT LAKES AS IT BOMBS OUT INTO A 975MB
LOW BY DAYBREAK MON. HOWEVER...BY THE TIME IT DOES...ENERGY FROM THE
WRN JET WILL HAVE ROUNDED THE BASE OF THE SHORT WAVE TROF...ALLOWING
THE LIFTING SIDE OF THE SHORT WAVE TO STRENGTHEN SUBSTANTIALLY. GFS
ESTIMATING THE H30-H20 JET INCREASING TO 150KTS OVER THE MID/DEEP
SOUTH BY 00Z TUE. HOWEVER...AS IMPRESSIVE AS IT SOUNDS...THIS
LIFTING ORIENTATION OF THE JET WILL ALL BUT GUARANTEE THE SYSTEM
WILL LIFT INTO ERN CANADA TOO QUICKLY TO PROVIDE ANY SUPPORT TO THE
SRN EXTENSION OF ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT...LEAVING IT WITH ONLY ITS
OWN MOMENTUM FOR FORWARD PROGRESS. GIVEN THE POSITION OF THE ATLC
RIDGE...THIS PROGRESS WILL BE SLOW.

SHALLOW FROPA WILL FORCE H100-H90 WINDS TO VEER FROM SW ON MON TO NE
BY DAYBREAK TUE. THE TROF WILL ERODE THE WRN FLANK OF THE ATLC
RIDGE...BUT WILL SACRIFICE ITS FORWARD MOTION TO DO SO. MEANWHILE...
AN H85-H50 ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NE OF THE BAHAMA BANK WILL MAINTAIN
AN EXISTING W/SW FLOW THRU THE MID LYRS THAT WILL GENERATE A LOW/MID
LVL ISENTROPIC LIFT INTO WED AFTN.

DRY AIR THRU THE H85-H50 LYR WILL REMAIN THRU MON AFTN AS THE SW
FLOW TAPS A DRY TONGUE OVER THE NW CARIB/YUCATAN PENINSULA. WHILE
THIS WILL LIMIT POPS TO THE 20-40PCT RANGE...IT ALSO WILL ENHANCE
TSTM POTENTIAL THRU MON AFTN...ESPECIALLY AS H70-H50 LAPSE RATES AOA
7C/KM OVER THE GOMEX BEGIN TO FILTER INTO THE PENINSULA. HOWEVER...
THE H50 LYR WILL UNDERGO WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION THAT WILL PUSH THE
-10C ISOTHERM WELL NW OF THE CENTRAL FL...SO OVERALL STRONG/SVR WX
THREAT WILL REMAIN LOW.

SRLY WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS ABV AVG...MAXES L/M80S AND MINS M/U60S...
EXCEPT N70 ALONG THE TREASURE COAST.

TUE-WED...AIRMASS WILL BECOME SATURATED ON TUE AS DEEP MOISTURE OVER
THE CENTRAL/ERN CARIB ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE ATLC RIDGE AND LIFTS N
INTO FL...ERODING THE MID LVL DRY AIR. WITH MOISTURE INCREASING IN
THE PRESENCE OF STRONG AND PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC LIFT AND A PSEUDO-
STATIONARY FRONT...PRECIP WILL BE LIKELY FROM DAYBREAK 12Z TUE THRU
00Z THU. WHILE THE THERMAL PROFILE DOES NOT INDICATE SVR WX... THE
CUMULATIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL WILL BE HIGH. INITIAL QPF NUMBERS FROM
GFS SEEM HIGH...BUT ANTICIPATE 36HR RAINFALL AMOUNTS BTWN 1-2" WILL
BE COMMON WITH LCL AMOUNTS UP TO 3" PSBL.

SRLY FLOW WILL PUSH MON AFTN TEMPS WELL ABV AVG...MAXES INTO THE
L/M80S AND MINS IN THE M/U60S. TEMPS DROPPING TUE-WED AS THE FRONT
SAGS THRU CENTRAL FL WITH THICK CLOUD COVER. TEMPS IN MANY AREAS MAY
NOT RANGE BY MORE THAN 10F DEG DEPENDING ON HOW FAR S THE FRONT
MANAGES TO PENETRATE. MAXES IN THE L/M70S TUE...MINS TUE NIGHT
M/U50S EXCEPT M/U60S ALONG THE TREASURE COAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
MAXES WED L/M60 EXCEPT U60S/L70S ALONG THE TREASURE COAST.

THU-SAT...
A 140KT ISOTACH EXTENDING FROM GA/AL INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
WILL GENERATE STRONG UPR LVL DIVERGENCE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH/MID ATLC
REGION THAT WILL INDUCE A NEW SFC LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY
DAYBREAK WED. EMBEDDED WITH SUCH A STRONG SWRLY FLOW...THE LOW WILL
RACE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY DAYBREAK THU AND PROVIDE THE
TORQUE NECESSARY TO PULL THE COLD FRONT INTO THE FL STRAITS. THE
POST-FRONTAL RIDGE OVER THE GOMEX WILL PRODUCE A DEEP NWRLY FLOW
THAT WILL GENERATE A COOL/DRY AIR ADVECTION PATTERN THAT WILL
PREVAIL THRU THE END OF THE WEEK.

NRLY WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS AOB CLIMO AVG THRU FRI NIGHT WITH MAX
TEMPS M/U60S...MIN TEMPS M/U40S INTERIOR AND U40/M50S ALONG THE
COAST. WINDS WILL VEER TO NE BY THE WEEKEND AS THE POST FRONTAL
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE W ATLC. THE ONSHORE COMPONENT WILL PUSH OCEAN
MODIFIED AIR BACK ONSHORE...ALLOWING MAX TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE
L/M70S SAT AFTN.

&&

.AVIATION...KXMR PROFILER DATA CONTINUES TO SHOW A LLWS PROFILE WITH
VEERING WINDS AT 0.5 TO 1.0KFT 32-35KT FROM 120-130 DEGREES. SURFACE
WINDS ALONG THE COAST LOOK A LITTLE TOO STRONG/GUSTY ATTM FOR THE
NECESSARY SHEAR VALUES...BUT INLAND ANOTHER STORY. 06Z TAF PACKAGE
MAINTAINED LLWS THROUGH EARLY MORNING. WILL RE-EVALUATE AROUND 11Z.

OTRW...PREVAILING MVFR CIGS WITH AREAS VSBYS NR 4-5SM IN LIGHT
PRECIP AND MIST. POCKETS OF IFR CIGS FEW AND FAR BETWEEN (MCO ATTM).
DON`T EXPECT TO SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF IFR CIGS AFTER SUNRISE AS
BLYR WARM/MIXES AND THE WARM FRONT SHIFT RAPIDLY NWD. GUSTY SE-SSE
WINDS FROM 130-160/15-18KT GUSTING TO 23-26KT...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...NO CHGS. SOLID SCA CONDITIONS IN PLACE...AND LOCAL BUOY
OBS LAST EVENING/EARLY THIS MORNING HAVE FLIRTED WITH HIGH SURF
ADV CRITERIA (6-7FT@41113/8-9FT@41114). PLAN TO ISSUE ANOTHER
STRONGLY WORDED STATEMENT FOR RIPS/ROUGH SURF THIS MORNING. OTRW...
ESE-SE WINDS 20-25KT WITH FQT GUSTS TO 30KT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
TO SSE-SRLY TONIGHT. THIS WILL CARRY THE HIGHER SEAS FARTHER AWAY
FROM THE COAST AS ONSHORE COMPONENT BECOMES LONGSHORE AND EVENTUALLY
SLIGHTLY OFFSHORE.

MON-MON NIGHT...FRONTAL BNDRY PUSHING INTO THE N FL PENINSULA WILL
BECOME PSEUDO-STATIONARY AS IT PLOWS INTO THE WRN FLANK OF A LARGE
RIDGE AXIS OVER THE WRN ATLC. A GENTLE TO MODERATE SRLY BREEZE WILL
PREVAIL THRU THE DAY...BCMG LIGHT TO GENTLE W/SW AFT SUNSET...BCMG
GENTLE TO MODERATE W/NW AFT MIDNIGHT AS THE BNDRY SAGS INTO CENTRAL
FL. SEAS 4-5FT NEARSHORE AND 5-7FT OFFSHORE THRU LATE AFTN...
SUBSIDING TO 3-4FT NEARSHORE AND 4-5FT OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...
SFC/BNDRY LYR WINDS WILL VEER TO A NERLY REGIME AS THE FRNTL BNDRY
STALLS IN THE VCNTY OF I-4/CAPE CANAVERAL. SPEEDS/DIRECTIONS WILL BE
VRBL BASED ON HOW FAR S THE FRONT PENETRATES BEFORE STALLING. AREAS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL SEE A PREVAILING LIGHT TO GENTLE E/NE
BREEZE WITH SEAS 2-4FT...BEHIND THE FRONT A PREVAILING MODERATE TO
FRESH N/NE BREEZE WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 5-7FT. WILL FOCUS THE
BREAKPOINT ON SEBASTIAN INLET...THOUGH THIS MAY FLUCTUATE WITH
LATER FCSTS.

WED-WED NIGHT...
A SFC SLOW IS EXPECTED TO DVLP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY DAYBREAK
WED AND LIFT RAPIDLY UP THE ERN SEABOARD...REACHING THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES BY DAYBREAK THU. THIS LOW WILL PULL THE COLD FRONT CLEAR
OF THE FL PENINSULA ARND SUNSET WED EVNG. THE POST FRONTAL HI PRES
RIDGE WILL INTERACT WITH THE DEPARTING FRNTL TROF TO GENERATE A
FRESH TO STRONG N/NW BREEZE THRU WED WITH 5-7FT SEAS NEARSHORE AND
8-10FT SEAS OFFSHORE.

THU-THU NIGHT...
SFC PGRAD WILL SLACKEN AS THE POST-FRONTAL RIDGE LIFTS INTO THE DEEP
SOUTH...ALLOWING WINDS THE NRLY WINDS TO DIMINISH TO A MODERATE TO
FREEZE BREEZE BY MIDDAY...THEN A GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZE
OVERNIGHT. HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY IN THE GULF
STREAM WHERE THE NRLY WINDS/SRLY CURRENT WILL GENERATE SQUARE WAVES.
SEAS 4-6FT NEARSHORE AND 6-8FT OFFSHORE THRU THE DAY...SUBSIDING TO
3-5FT NEARSHORE AND 4-6FT OFFSHORE AFT SUNSET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  82  71  80  63 /  50  40  40  40
MCO  84  69  83  66 /  50  30  40  30
MLB  83  73  82  69 /  50  30  30  40
VRB  83  73  82  70 /  50  30  20  40
LEE  83  69  82  64 /  50  40  40  30
SFB  83  70  82  64 /  50  30  40  30
ORL  83  70  83  66 /  50  30  40  30
FPR  83  72  82  69 /  50  30  20  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE
     OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER
     INLET OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY
     LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST MONDAY FOR WATERS FROM
     FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO
     60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
     SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...CRISTALDI
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX....BRAGAW










000
FXUS62 KMLB 230945 AAA
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
445 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...

...ROUGH BOATING/BEACH CONDITIONS CONTINUE...

CURRENT...A WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSE IS LOCATED OVER THE FL PANHANDLE
IS BEING EJECTED NEWD BY AN UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE KICKER. LARGE SWATH
OF RAIN AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE COVERS NORTH FL AND POINTS NORTH/NE.
FARTHER SOUTH THE SURFACE WARM FRONT LOOKS TO BE NEAR LAKE OKEE WITH
STRONG ONSHORE FLOW RAPIDLY MODIFYING THE INCREASINGLY SHALLOW
PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS. CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN/ SPRINKLES/DRIZZLE
PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA WITH AN EMBEDDED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWER
BAND WORKING ITS WAY NWD OVER THE TREASURE COAST. BREEZY CONDITIONS
PREVAIL OVER THE SPACE AND TREASURE COAST COUNTIES WITH SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS 15-20 MPH...GUSTING TO 25-30 MPH... ESPECIALLY CLOSE
TO THE COAST. NOT AT ALL SURPRISINGLY...GIVEN THE CLOUDS/WINDS TEMPS
HAVE SHOWN ABSOLUTELY NO NOCTURNAL DROP...68-71F N/W OF LAKE
KISM-KTIX...AND 72-75F TO THE S/E.

TODAY...UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH TAKE ON NEGATIVE TILT AND TURNS
NEWD LIKE ITS PREDECESSOR...MOVING RAPIDLY NEWD FROM THE LWR MS VLY
BY MID DAY...INTO THE TN VALLEY BY 00Z...THEN DRAGGING A DEFORMING
MID LEVEL VORT AXIS SEWD ACROSS THE PENINSULA TONIGHT. AT THE
SURFACE...BEST UPGLIDE WILL SHIFT NWD...CARRYING THICKER MULTI
LAYERED CLOUDS WITH IT. AIDED BY WHAT SHOULD BE DIURNAL HEATING...
EXPECT WARM FRONT TO  "JUMP" NWD ACROSS THE CTRL PENINSULA...WITH
WINDS SHIFTING TO SE-SSE BY THIS AFTERNOON. SHOULD SEE DEVELOPMENT
OF SCATTERED CONVECTION AS THE LIGHTER STRATIFORM RAINS MOVE NWD OUT
OF THE AREA. TEMPS SHOULD REACH L-M80S ALL AREAS. SHOULD BE FAIRLY
BREEZY TODAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING...AS LCL PGRAD REMAINS
TIGHT.

TONIGHT...DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD END A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET
WITH SFC FLOW VEERING TO SRLY AND DECREASING. SETUP LOOKS GOOD FOR
LATE NIGHT LOW CLOUDS - PERHAPS SOME LOCAL MIST/FOG...HOWEVER WINDS
AT THE SFC ESPECIALLY JUST OFF THE DECK DON`T LOOK AT ALL FAVORABLE
FOR SIGNIFICANT FOG. WARM WITH MINS IN THE U60S-L70S.

MON-MON NIGHT...AN UNSETTLED WX PD INTO MIDWEEK AS A SHORT WAVE TROF
EXTENDING DOWN THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES FROM SASKATCHEWAN TO THE
RIO GRAND VALLEY GRINDS ITS WAY INTO THE WRN FLANK OF A LARGE HI
PRES RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC TO THE MS RIVER VALLEY. THE
H30-H20 JET OVER THE E PAC CONTINUES TO HOLD A STRONG ZONAL
COMPONENT BUT ITS LEADING EDGE IS BEGINNING TO DIG INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA. WITH A MAX SPEED OF 140KTS IMPINGING ON THE PAC NW AND
ITS 100KT ISOTACH UNBROKEN CLEAR BACK TO JAPAN...THERE WILL BE NO
ENERGY SHORTAGE FOR THE STORM SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS.

THE WRN JET STREAK WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY AS PUSHES E...FORCING
THE STORM SYSTEM INTO THE GREAT LAKES AS IT BOMBS OUT INTO A 975MB
LOW BY DAYBREAK MON. HOWEVER...BY THE TIME IT DOES...ENERGY FROM THE
WRN JET WILL HAVE ROUNDED THE BASE OF THE SHORT WAVE TROF...ALLOWING
THE LIFTING SIDE OF THE SHORT WAVE TO STRENGTHEN SUBSTANTIALLY. GFS
ESTIMATING THE H30-H20 JET INCREASING TO 150KTS OVER THE MID/DEEP
SOUTH BY 00Z TUE. HOWEVER...AS IMPRESSIVE AS IT SOUNDS...THIS
LIFTING ORIENTATION OF THE JET WILL ALL BUT GUARANTEE THE SYSTEM
WILL LIFT INTO ERN CANADA TOO QUICKLY TO PROVIDE ANY SUPPORT TO THE
SRN EXTENSION OF ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT...LEAVING IT WITH ONLY ITS
OWN MOMENTUM FOR FORWARD PROGRESS. GIVEN THE POSITION OF THE ATLC
RIDGE...THIS PROGRESS WILL BE SLOW.

SHALLOW FROPA WILL FORCE H100-H90 WINDS TO VEER FROM SW ON MON TO NE
BY DAYBREAK TUE. THE TROF WILL ERODE THE WRN FLANK OF THE ATLC
RIDGE...BUT WILL SACRIFICE ITS FORWARD MOTION TO DO SO. MEANWHILE...
AN H85-H50 ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NE OF THE BAHAMA BANK WILL MAINTAIN
AN EXISTING W/SW FLOW THRU THE MID LYRS THAT WILL GENERATE A LOW/MID
LVL ISENTROPIC LIFT INTO WED AFTN.

DRY AIR THRU THE H85-H50 LYR WILL REMAIN THRU MON AFTN AS THE SW
FLOW TAPS A DRY TONGUE OVER THE NW CARIB/YUCATAN PENINSULA. WHILE
THIS WILL LIMIT POPS TO THE 20-40PCT RANGE...IT ALSO WILL ENHANCE
TSTM POTENTIAL THRU MON AFTN...ESPECIALLY AS H70-H50 LAPSE RATES AOA
7C/KM OVER THE GOMEX BEGIN TO FILTER INTO THE PENINSULA. HOWEVER...
THE H50 LYR WILL UNDERGO WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION THAT WILL PUSH THE
-10C ISOTHERM WELL NW OF THE CENTRAL FL...SO OVERALL STRONG/SVR WX
THREAT WILL REMAIN LOW.

SRLY WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS ABV AVG...MAXES L/M80S AND MINS M/U60S...
EXCEPT N70 ALONG THE TREASURE COAST.

TUE-WED...AIRMASS WILL BECOME SATURATED ON TUE AS DEEP MOISTURE OVER
THE CENTRAL/ERN CARIB ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE ATLC RIDGE AND LIFTS N
INTO FL...ERODING THE MID LVL DRY AIR. WITH MOISTURE INCREASING IN
THE PRESENCE OF STRONG AND PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC LIFT AND A PSEUDO-
STATIONARY FRONT...PRECIP WILL BE LIKELY FROM DAYBREAK 12Z TUE THRU
00Z THU. WHILE THE THERMAL PROFILE DOES NOT INDICATE SVR WX... THE
CUMULATIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL WILL BE HIGH. INITIAL QPF NUMBERS FROM
GFS SEEM HIGH...BUT ANTICIPATE 36HR RAINFALL AMOUNTS BTWN 1-2" WILL
BE COMMON WITH LCL AMOUNTS UP TO 3" PSBL.

SRLY FLOW WILL PUSH MON AFTN TEMPS WELL ABV AVG...MAXES INTO THE
L/M80S AND MINS IN THE M/U60S. TEMPS DROPPING TUE-WED AS THE FRONT
SAGS THRU CENTRAL FL WITH THICK CLOUD COVER. TEMPS IN MANY AREAS MAY
NOT RANGE BY MORE THAN 10F DEG DEPENDING ON HOW FAR S THE FRONT
MANAGES TO PENETRATE. MAXES IN THE L/M70S TUE...MINS TUE NIGHT
M/U50S EXCEPT M/U60S ALONG THE TREASURE COAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
MAXES WED L/M60 EXCEPT U60S/L70S ALONG THE TREASURE COAST.

THU-SAT...
A 140KT ISOTACH EXTENDING FROM GA/AL INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
WILL GENERATE STRONG UPR LVL DIVERGENCE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH/MID ATLC
REGION THAT WILL INDUCE A NEW SFC LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY
DAYBREAK WED. EMBEDDED WITH SUCH A STRONG SWRLY FLOW...THE LOW WILL
RACE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY DAYBREAK THU AND PROVIDE THE
TORQUE NECESSARY TO PULL THE COLD FRONT INTO THE FL STRAITS. THE
POST-FRONTAL RIDGE OVER THE GOMEX WILL PRODUCE A DEEP NWRLY FLOW
THAT WILL GENERATE A COOL/DRY AIR ADVECTION PATTERN THAT WILL
PREVAIL THRU THE END OF THE WEEK.

NRLY WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS AOB CLIMO AVG THRU FRI NIGHT WITH MAX
TEMPS M/U60S...MIN TEMPS M/U40S INTERIOR AND U40/M50S ALONG THE
COAST. WINDS WILL VEER TO NE BY THE WEEKEND AS THE POST FRONTAL
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE W ATLC. THE ONSHORE COMPONENT WILL PUSH OCEAN
MODIFIED AIR BACK ONSHORE...ALLOWING MAX TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE
L/M70S SAT AFTN.

&&

.AVIATION...KXMR PROFILER DATA CONTINUES TO SHOW A LLWS PROFILE WITH
VEERING WINDS AT 0.5 TO 1.0KFT 32-35KT FROM 120-130 DEGREES. SURFACE
WINDS ALONG THE COAST LOOK A LITTLE TOO STRONG/GUSTY ATTM FOR THE
NECESSARY SHEAR VALUES...BUT INLAND ANOTHER STORY. 06Z TAF PACKAGE
MAINTAINED LLWS THROUGH EARLY MORNING. WILL RE-EVALUATE AROUND 11Z.

OTRW...PREVAILING MVFR CIGS WITH AREAS VSBYS NR 4-5SM IN LIGHT
PRECIP AND MIST. POCKETS OF IFR CIGS FEW AND FAR BETWEEN (MCO ATTM).
DON`T EXPECT TO SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF IFR CIGS AFTER SUNRISE AS
BLYR WARM/MIXES AND THE WARM FRONT SHIFT RAPIDLY NWD. GUSTY SE-SSE
WINDS FROM 130-160/15-18KT GUSTING TO 23-26KT...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...NO CHGS. SOLID SCA CONDITIONS IN PLACE...AND LOCAL BUOY
OBS LAST EVENING/EARLY THIS MORNING HAVE FLIRTED WITH HIGH SURF
ADV CRITERIA (6-7FT@41113/8-9FT@41114). PLAN TO ISSUE ANOTHER
STRONGLY WORDED STATEMENT FOR RIPS/ROUGH SURF THIS MORNING. OTRW...
ESE-SE WINDS 20-25KT WITH FQT GUSTS TO 30KT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
TO SSE-SRLY TONIGHT. THIS WILL CARRY THE HIGHER SEAS FARTHER AWAY
FROM THE COAST AS ONSHORE COMPONENT BECOMES LONGSHORE AND EVENTUALLY
SLIGHTLY OFFSHORE.

MON-MON NIGHT...FRONTAL BNDRY PUSHING INTO THE N FL PENINSULA WILL
BECOME PSEUDO-STATIONARY AS IT PLOWS INTO THE WRN FLANK OF A LARGE
RIDGE AXIS OVER THE WRN ATLC. A GENTLE TO MODERATE SRLY BREEZE WILL
PREVAIL THRU THE DAY...BCMG LIGHT TO GENTLE W/SW AFT SUNSET...BCMG
GENTLE TO MODERATE W/NW AFT MIDNIGHT AS THE BNDRY SAGS INTO CENTRAL
FL. SEAS 4-5FT NEARSHORE AND 5-7FT OFFSHORE THRU LATE AFTN...
SUBSIDING TO 3-4FT NEARSHORE AND 4-5FT OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...
SFC/BNDRY LYR WINDS WILL VEER TO A NERLY REGIME AS THE FRNTL BNDRY
STALLS IN THE VCNTY OF I-4/CAPE CANAVERAL. SPEEDS/DIRECTIONS WILL BE
VRBL BASED ON HOW FAR S THE FRONT PENETRATES BEFORE STALLING. AREAS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL SEE A PREVAILING LIGHT TO GENTLE E/NE
BREEZE WITH SEAS 2-4FT...BEHIND THE FRONT A PREVAILING MODERATE TO
FRESH N/NE BREEZE WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 5-7FT. WILL FOCUS THE
BREAKPOINT ON SEBASTIAN INLET...THOUGH THIS MAY FLUCTUATE WITH
LATER FCSTS.

WED-WED NIGHT...
A SFC SLOW IS EXPECTED TO DVLP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY DAYBREAK
WED AND LIFT RAPIDLY UP THE ERN SEABOARD...REACHING THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES BY DAYBREAK THU. THIS LOW WILL PULL THE COLD FRONT CLEAR
OF THE FL PENINSULA ARND SUNSET WED EVNG. THE POST FRONTAL HI PRES
RIDGE WILL INTERACT WITH THE DEPARTING FRNTL TROF TO GENERATE A
FRESH TO STRONG N/NW BREEZE THRU WED WITH 5-7FT SEAS NEARSHORE AND
8-10FT SEAS OFFSHORE.

THU-THU NIGHT...
SFC PGRAD WILL SLACKEN AS THE POST-FRONTAL RIDGE LIFTS INTO THE DEEP
SOUTH...ALLOWING WINDS THE NRLY WINDS TO DIMINISH TO A MODERATE TO
FREEZE BREEZE BY MIDDAY...THEN A GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZE
OVERNIGHT. HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY IN THE GULF
STREAM WHERE THE NRLY WINDS/SRLY CURRENT WILL GENERATE SQUARE WAVES.
SEAS 4-6FT NEARSHORE AND 6-8FT OFFSHORE THRU THE DAY...SUBSIDING TO
3-5FT NEARSHORE AND 4-6FT OFFSHORE AFT SUNSET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  82  71  80  63 /  50  40  40  40
MCO  84  69  83  66 /  50  30  40  30
MLB  83  73  82  69 /  50  30  30  40
VRB  83  73  82  70 /  50  30  20  40
LEE  83  69  82  64 /  50  40  40  30
SFB  83  70  82  64 /  50  30  40  30
ORL  83  70  83  66 /  50  30  40  30
FPR  83  72  82  69 /  50  30  20  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE
     OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER
     INLET OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY
     LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST MONDAY FOR WATERS FROM
     FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO
     60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
     SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...CRISTALDI
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX....BRAGAW










000
FXUS62 KMLB 230945 AAA
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
445 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...

...ROUGH BOATING/BEACH CONDITIONS CONTINUE...

CURRENT...A WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSE IS LOCATED OVER THE FL PANHANDLE
IS BEING EJECTED NEWD BY AN UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE KICKER. LARGE SWATH
OF RAIN AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE COVERS NORTH FL AND POINTS NORTH/NE.
FARTHER SOUTH THE SURFACE WARM FRONT LOOKS TO BE NEAR LAKE OKEE WITH
STRONG ONSHORE FLOW RAPIDLY MODIFYING THE INCREASINGLY SHALLOW
PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS. CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN/ SPRINKLES/DRIZZLE
PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA WITH AN EMBEDDED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWER
BAND WORKING ITS WAY NWD OVER THE TREASURE COAST. BREEZY CONDITIONS
PREVAIL OVER THE SPACE AND TREASURE COAST COUNTIES WITH SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS 15-20 MPH...GUSTING TO 25-30 MPH... ESPECIALLY CLOSE
TO THE COAST. NOT AT ALL SURPRISINGLY...GIVEN THE CLOUDS/WINDS TEMPS
HAVE SHOWN ABSOLUTELY NO NOCTURNAL DROP...68-71F N/W OF LAKE
KISM-KTIX...AND 72-75F TO THE S/E.

TODAY...UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH TAKE ON NEGATIVE TILT AND TURNS
NEWD LIKE ITS PREDECESSOR...MOVING RAPIDLY NEWD FROM THE LWR MS VLY
BY MID DAY...INTO THE TN VALLEY BY 00Z...THEN DRAGGING A DEFORMING
MID LEVEL VORT AXIS SEWD ACROSS THE PENINSULA TONIGHT. AT THE
SURFACE...BEST UPGLIDE WILL SHIFT NWD...CARRYING THICKER MULTI
LAYERED CLOUDS WITH IT. AIDED BY WHAT SHOULD BE DIURNAL HEATING...
EXPECT WARM FRONT TO  "JUMP" NWD ACROSS THE CTRL PENINSULA...WITH
WINDS SHIFTING TO SE-SSE BY THIS AFTERNOON. SHOULD SEE DEVELOPMENT
OF SCATTERED CONVECTION AS THE LIGHTER STRATIFORM RAINS MOVE NWD OUT
OF THE AREA. TEMPS SHOULD REACH L-M80S ALL AREAS. SHOULD BE FAIRLY
BREEZY TODAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING...AS LCL PGRAD REMAINS
TIGHT.

TONIGHT...DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD END A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET
WITH SFC FLOW VEERING TO SRLY AND DECREASING. SETUP LOOKS GOOD FOR
LATE NIGHT LOW CLOUDS - PERHAPS SOME LOCAL MIST/FOG...HOWEVER WINDS
AT THE SFC ESPECIALLY JUST OFF THE DECK DON`T LOOK AT ALL FAVORABLE
FOR SIGNIFICANT FOG. WARM WITH MINS IN THE U60S-L70S.

MON-MON NIGHT...AN UNSETTLED WX PD INTO MIDWEEK AS A SHORT WAVE TROF
EXTENDING DOWN THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES FROM SASKATCHEWAN TO THE
RIO GRAND VALLEY GRINDS ITS WAY INTO THE WRN FLANK OF A LARGE HI
PRES RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC TO THE MS RIVER VALLEY. THE
H30-H20 JET OVER THE E PAC CONTINUES TO HOLD A STRONG ZONAL
COMPONENT BUT ITS LEADING EDGE IS BEGINNING TO DIG INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA. WITH A MAX SPEED OF 140KTS IMPINGING ON THE PAC NW AND
ITS 100KT ISOTACH UNBROKEN CLEAR BACK TO JAPAN...THERE WILL BE NO
ENERGY SHORTAGE FOR THE STORM SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS.

THE WRN JET STREAK WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY AS PUSHES E...FORCING
THE STORM SYSTEM INTO THE GREAT LAKES AS IT BOMBS OUT INTO A 975MB
LOW BY DAYBREAK MON. HOWEVER...BY THE TIME IT DOES...ENERGY FROM THE
WRN JET WILL HAVE ROUNDED THE BASE OF THE SHORT WAVE TROF...ALLOWING
THE LIFTING SIDE OF THE SHORT WAVE TO STRENGTHEN SUBSTANTIALLY. GFS
ESTIMATING THE H30-H20 JET INCREASING TO 150KTS OVER THE MID/DEEP
SOUTH BY 00Z TUE. HOWEVER...AS IMPRESSIVE AS IT SOUNDS...THIS
LIFTING ORIENTATION OF THE JET WILL ALL BUT GUARANTEE THE SYSTEM
WILL LIFT INTO ERN CANADA TOO QUICKLY TO PROVIDE ANY SUPPORT TO THE
SRN EXTENSION OF ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT...LEAVING IT WITH ONLY ITS
OWN MOMENTUM FOR FORWARD PROGRESS. GIVEN THE POSITION OF THE ATLC
RIDGE...THIS PROGRESS WILL BE SLOW.

SHALLOW FROPA WILL FORCE H100-H90 WINDS TO VEER FROM SW ON MON TO NE
BY DAYBREAK TUE. THE TROF WILL ERODE THE WRN FLANK OF THE ATLC
RIDGE...BUT WILL SACRIFICE ITS FORWARD MOTION TO DO SO. MEANWHILE...
AN H85-H50 ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NE OF THE BAHAMA BANK WILL MAINTAIN
AN EXISTING W/SW FLOW THRU THE MID LYRS THAT WILL GENERATE A LOW/MID
LVL ISENTROPIC LIFT INTO WED AFTN.

DRY AIR THRU THE H85-H50 LYR WILL REMAIN THRU MON AFTN AS THE SW
FLOW TAPS A DRY TONGUE OVER THE NW CARIB/YUCATAN PENINSULA. WHILE
THIS WILL LIMIT POPS TO THE 20-40PCT RANGE...IT ALSO WILL ENHANCE
TSTM POTENTIAL THRU MON AFTN...ESPECIALLY AS H70-H50 LAPSE RATES AOA
7C/KM OVER THE GOMEX BEGIN TO FILTER INTO THE PENINSULA. HOWEVER...
THE H50 LYR WILL UNDERGO WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION THAT WILL PUSH THE
-10C ISOTHERM WELL NW OF THE CENTRAL FL...SO OVERALL STRONG/SVR WX
THREAT WILL REMAIN LOW.

SRLY WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS ABV AVG...MAXES L/M80S AND MINS M/U60S...
EXCEPT N70 ALONG THE TREASURE COAST.

TUE-WED...AIRMASS WILL BECOME SATURATED ON TUE AS DEEP MOISTURE OVER
THE CENTRAL/ERN CARIB ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE ATLC RIDGE AND LIFTS N
INTO FL...ERODING THE MID LVL DRY AIR. WITH MOISTURE INCREASING IN
THE PRESENCE OF STRONG AND PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC LIFT AND A PSEUDO-
STATIONARY FRONT...PRECIP WILL BE LIKELY FROM DAYBREAK 12Z TUE THRU
00Z THU. WHILE THE THERMAL PROFILE DOES NOT INDICATE SVR WX... THE
CUMULATIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL WILL BE HIGH. INITIAL QPF NUMBERS FROM
GFS SEEM HIGH...BUT ANTICIPATE 36HR RAINFALL AMOUNTS BTWN 1-2" WILL
BE COMMON WITH LCL AMOUNTS UP TO 3" PSBL.

SRLY FLOW WILL PUSH MON AFTN TEMPS WELL ABV AVG...MAXES INTO THE
L/M80S AND MINS IN THE M/U60S. TEMPS DROPPING TUE-WED AS THE FRONT
SAGS THRU CENTRAL FL WITH THICK CLOUD COVER. TEMPS IN MANY AREAS MAY
NOT RANGE BY MORE THAN 10F DEG DEPENDING ON HOW FAR S THE FRONT
MANAGES TO PENETRATE. MAXES IN THE L/M70S TUE...MINS TUE NIGHT
M/U50S EXCEPT M/U60S ALONG THE TREASURE COAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
MAXES WED L/M60 EXCEPT U60S/L70S ALONG THE TREASURE COAST.

THU-SAT...
A 140KT ISOTACH EXTENDING FROM GA/AL INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
WILL GENERATE STRONG UPR LVL DIVERGENCE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH/MID ATLC
REGION THAT WILL INDUCE A NEW SFC LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY
DAYBREAK WED. EMBEDDED WITH SUCH A STRONG SWRLY FLOW...THE LOW WILL
RACE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY DAYBREAK THU AND PROVIDE THE
TORQUE NECESSARY TO PULL THE COLD FRONT INTO THE FL STRAITS. THE
POST-FRONTAL RIDGE OVER THE GOMEX WILL PRODUCE A DEEP NWRLY FLOW
THAT WILL GENERATE A COOL/DRY AIR ADVECTION PATTERN THAT WILL
PREVAIL THRU THE END OF THE WEEK.

NRLY WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS AOB CLIMO AVG THRU FRI NIGHT WITH MAX
TEMPS M/U60S...MIN TEMPS M/U40S INTERIOR AND U40/M50S ALONG THE
COAST. WINDS WILL VEER TO NE BY THE WEEKEND AS THE POST FRONTAL
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE W ATLC. THE ONSHORE COMPONENT WILL PUSH OCEAN
MODIFIED AIR BACK ONSHORE...ALLOWING MAX TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE
L/M70S SAT AFTN.

&&

.AVIATION...KXMR PROFILER DATA CONTINUES TO SHOW A LLWS PROFILE WITH
VEERING WINDS AT 0.5 TO 1.0KFT 32-35KT FROM 120-130 DEGREES. SURFACE
WINDS ALONG THE COAST LOOK A LITTLE TOO STRONG/GUSTY ATTM FOR THE
NECESSARY SHEAR VALUES...BUT INLAND ANOTHER STORY. 06Z TAF PACKAGE
MAINTAINED LLWS THROUGH EARLY MORNING. WILL RE-EVALUATE AROUND 11Z.

OTRW...PREVAILING MVFR CIGS WITH AREAS VSBYS NR 4-5SM IN LIGHT
PRECIP AND MIST. POCKETS OF IFR CIGS FEW AND FAR BETWEEN (MCO ATTM).
DON`T EXPECT TO SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF IFR CIGS AFTER SUNRISE AS
BLYR WARM/MIXES AND THE WARM FRONT SHIFT RAPIDLY NWD. GUSTY SE-SSE
WINDS FROM 130-160/15-18KT GUSTING TO 23-26KT...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...NO CHGS. SOLID SCA CONDITIONS IN PLACE...AND LOCAL BUOY
OBS LAST EVENING/EARLY THIS MORNING HAVE FLIRTED WITH HIGH SURF
ADV CRITERIA (6-7FT@41113/8-9FT@41114). PLAN TO ISSUE ANOTHER
STRONGLY WORDED STATEMENT FOR RIPS/ROUGH SURF THIS MORNING. OTRW...
ESE-SE WINDS 20-25KT WITH FQT GUSTS TO 30KT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
TO SSE-SRLY TONIGHT. THIS WILL CARRY THE HIGHER SEAS FARTHER AWAY
FROM THE COAST AS ONSHORE COMPONENT BECOMES LONGSHORE AND EVENTUALLY
SLIGHTLY OFFSHORE.

MON-MON NIGHT...FRONTAL BNDRY PUSHING INTO THE N FL PENINSULA WILL
BECOME PSEUDO-STATIONARY AS IT PLOWS INTO THE WRN FLANK OF A LARGE
RIDGE AXIS OVER THE WRN ATLC. A GENTLE TO MODERATE SRLY BREEZE WILL
PREVAIL THRU THE DAY...BCMG LIGHT TO GENTLE W/SW AFT SUNSET...BCMG
GENTLE TO MODERATE W/NW AFT MIDNIGHT AS THE BNDRY SAGS INTO CENTRAL
FL. SEAS 4-5FT NEARSHORE AND 5-7FT OFFSHORE THRU LATE AFTN...
SUBSIDING TO 3-4FT NEARSHORE AND 4-5FT OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...
SFC/BNDRY LYR WINDS WILL VEER TO A NERLY REGIME AS THE FRNTL BNDRY
STALLS IN THE VCNTY OF I-4/CAPE CANAVERAL. SPEEDS/DIRECTIONS WILL BE
VRBL BASED ON HOW FAR S THE FRONT PENETRATES BEFORE STALLING. AREAS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL SEE A PREVAILING LIGHT TO GENTLE E/NE
BREEZE WITH SEAS 2-4FT...BEHIND THE FRONT A PREVAILING MODERATE TO
FRESH N/NE BREEZE WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 5-7FT. WILL FOCUS THE
BREAKPOINT ON SEBASTIAN INLET...THOUGH THIS MAY FLUCTUATE WITH
LATER FCSTS.

WED-WED NIGHT...
A SFC SLOW IS EXPECTED TO DVLP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY DAYBREAK
WED AND LIFT RAPIDLY UP THE ERN SEABOARD...REACHING THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES BY DAYBREAK THU. THIS LOW WILL PULL THE COLD FRONT CLEAR
OF THE FL PENINSULA ARND SUNSET WED EVNG. THE POST FRONTAL HI PRES
RIDGE WILL INTERACT WITH THE DEPARTING FRNTL TROF TO GENERATE A
FRESH TO STRONG N/NW BREEZE THRU WED WITH 5-7FT SEAS NEARSHORE AND
8-10FT SEAS OFFSHORE.

THU-THU NIGHT...
SFC PGRAD WILL SLACKEN AS THE POST-FRONTAL RIDGE LIFTS INTO THE DEEP
SOUTH...ALLOWING WINDS THE NRLY WINDS TO DIMINISH TO A MODERATE TO
FREEZE BREEZE BY MIDDAY...THEN A GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZE
OVERNIGHT. HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY IN THE GULF
STREAM WHERE THE NRLY WINDS/SRLY CURRENT WILL GENERATE SQUARE WAVES.
SEAS 4-6FT NEARSHORE AND 6-8FT OFFSHORE THRU THE DAY...SUBSIDING TO
3-5FT NEARSHORE AND 4-6FT OFFSHORE AFT SUNSET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  82  71  80  63 /  50  40  40  40
MCO  84  69  83  66 /  50  30  40  30
MLB  83  73  82  69 /  50  30  30  40
VRB  83  73  82  70 /  50  30  20  40
LEE  83  69  82  64 /  50  40  40  30
SFB  83  70  82  64 /  50  30  40  30
ORL  83  70  83  66 /  50  30  40  30
FPR  83  72  82  69 /  50  30  20  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE
     OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER
     INLET OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY
     LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST MONDAY FOR WATERS FROM
     FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO
     60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
     SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...CRISTALDI
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX....BRAGAW











000
FXUS62 KMLB 230902
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
355 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...

...ROUGH BOATING/BEACH CONDITIONS CONTINUE...

CURRENT...A WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSE IS LOCATED OVER THE FL PANHANDLE
IS BEING EJECTED NEWD BY AN UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE KICKER. LARGE SWATH
OF RAIN AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE COVERS NORTH FL AND POINTS NORTH/NE.
FARTHER SOUTH THE SURFACE WARM FRONT LOOKS TO BE NEAR LAKE OKEE WITH
STRONG ONSHORE FLOW RAPIDLY MODIFYING THE INCREASINGLY SHALLOW
PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS. CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN/ SPRINKLES/DRIZZLE
PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA WITH AN EMBEDDED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWER
BAND WORKING ITS WAY NWD OVER THE TREASURE COAST. BREEZY CONDITIONS
PREVAIL OVER THE SPACE AND TREASURE COAST COUNTIES WITH SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS 15-20 MPH...GUSTING TO 25-30 MPH... ESPECIALLY CLOSE
TO THE COAST. NOT AT ALL SURPRISINGLY...GIVEN THE CLOUDS/WINDS TEMPS
HAVE SHOWN ABSOLUTELY NO NOCTURNAL DROP...68-71F N/W OF LAKE
KISM-KTIX...AND 72-75F TO THE S/E.

TODAY...UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH TAKE ON NEGATIVE TILT AND TURNS
NEWD LIKE ITS PREDECESSOR...MOVING RAPIDLY NEWD FROM THE LWR MS VLY
BY MID DAY...INTO THE TN VALLEY BY 00Z...THEN DRAGGING A DEFORMING
MID LEVEL VORT AXIS SEWD ACROSS THE PENINSULA TONIGHT. AT THE
SURFACE...BEST UPGLIDE WILL SHIFT NWD...CARRYING THICKER MULTI
LAYERED CLOUDS WITH IT. AIDED BY WHAT SHOULD BE DIURNAL HEATING...
EXPECT WARM FRONT TO  "JUMP" NWD ACROSS THE CTRL PENINSULA...WITH
WINDS SHIFTING TO SE-SSE BY THIS AFTERNOON. SHOULD SEE DEVELOPMENT
OF SCATTERED CONVECTION AS THE LIGHTER STRATIFORM RAINS MOVE NWD OUT
OF THE AREA. TEMPS SHOULD REACH L-M80S ALL AREAS. SHOULD BE FAIRLY
BREEZY TODAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING...AS LCL PGRAD REMAINS
TIGHT.

TONIGHT...DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD END A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET
WITH SFC FLOW VEERING TO SRLY AND DECREASING. SETUP LOOKS GOOD FOR
LATE NIGHT LOW CLOUDS - PERHAPS SOME LOCAL MIST/FOG...HOWEVER WINDS
AT THE SFC ESPECIALLY JUST OFF THE DECK DON`T LOOK AT ALL FAVORABLE
FOR SIGNIFICANT FOG. WARM WITH MINS IN THE U60S-L70S.

MON-MON NIGHT...AN UNSETTLED WX PD INTO MIDWEEK AS A SHORT WAVE TROF
EXTENDING DOWN THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES FROM SASKATCHEWAN TO THE
RIO GRAND VALLEY GRINDS ITS WAY INTO THE WRN FLANK OF A LARGE HI
PRES RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC TO THE MS RIVER VALLEY. THE
H30-H20 JET OVER THE E PAC CONTINUES TO HOLD A STRONG ZONAL
COMPONENT BUT ITS LEADING EDGE IS BEGINNING TO DIG INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA. WITH A MAX SPEED OF 140KTS IMPINGING ON THE PAC NW AND
ITS 100KT ISOTACH UNBROKEN CLEAR BACK TO JAPAN...THERE WILL BE NO
ENERGY SHORTAGE FOR THE STORM SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS.

THE WRN JET STREAK WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY AS PUSHES E...FORCING
THE STORM SYSTEM INTO THE GREAT LAKES AS IT BOMBS OUT INTO A 975MB
LOW BY DAYBREAK MON. HOWEVER...BY THE TIME IT DOES...ENERGY FROM THE
WRN JET WILL HAVE ROUNDED THE BASE OF THE SHORT WAVE TROF...ALLOWING
THE LIFTING SIDE OF THE SHORT WAVE TO STRENGTHEN SUBSTANTIALLY. GFS
ESTIMATING THE H30-H20 JET INCREASING TO 150KTS OVER THE MID/DEEP
SOUTH BY 00Z TUE. HOWEVER...AS IMPRESSIVE AS IT SOUNDS...THIS
LIFTING ORIENTATION OF THE JET WILL ALL BUT GUARANTEE THE SYSTEM
WILL LIFT INTO ERN CANADA TOO QUICKLY TO PROVIDE ANY SUPPORT TO THE
SRN EXTENSION OF ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT...LEAVING IT WITH ONLY ITS
OWN MOMENTUM FOR FORWARD PROGRESS. GIVEN THE POSITION OF THE ATLC
RIDGE...THIS PROGRESS WILL BE SLOW.

SHALLOW FROPA WILL FORCE H100-H90 WINDS TO VEER FROM SW ON MON TO NE
BY DAYBREAK TUE. THE TROF WILL ERODE THE WRN FLANK OF THE ATLC
RIDGE...BUT WILL SACRIFICE ITS FORWARD MOTION TO DO SO. MEANWHILE...
AN H85-H50 ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NE OF THE BAHAMA BANK WILL MAINTAIN
AN EXISTING W/SW FLOW THRU THE MID LYRS THAT WILL GENERATE A LOW/MID
LVL ISENTROPIC LIFT INTO WED AFTN.

DRY AIR THRU THE H85-H50 LYR WILL REMAIN THRU MON AFTN AS THE SW
FLOW TAPS A DRY TONGUE OVER THE NW CARIB/YUCATAN PENINSULA. WHILE
THIS WILL LIMIT POPS TO THE 20-40PCT RANGE...IT ALSO WILL ENHANCE
TSTM POTENTIAL THRU MON AFTN...ESPECIALLY AS H70-H50 LAPSE RATES AOA
7C/KM OVER THE GOMEX BEGIN TO FILTER INTO THE PENINSULA. HOWEVER...
THE H50 LYR WILL UNDERGO WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION THAT WILL PUSH THE
-10C ISOTHERM WELL NW OF THE CENTRAL FL...SO OVERALL STRONG/SVR WX
THREAT WILL REMAIN LOW.

SRLY WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS ABV AVG...MAXES L/M80S AND MINS M/U60S...
EXCEPT N70 ALONG THE TREASURE COAST.

TUE-WED...AIRMASS WILL BECOME SATURATED ON TUE AS DEEP MOISTURE OVER
THE CENTRAL/ERN CARIB ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE ATLC RIDGE AND LIFTS N
INTO FL...ERODING THE MID LVL DRY AIR. WITH MOISTURE INCREASING IN
THE PRESENCE OF STRONG AND PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC LIFT AND A PSEUDO-
STATIONARY FRONT...PRECIP WILL BE LIKELY FROM DAYBREAK 12Z TUE THRU
00Z THU. WHILE THE THERMAL PROFILE DOES NOT INDICATE SVR WX... THE
CUMULATIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL WILL BE HIGH. INITIAL QPF NUMBERS FROM
GFS SEEM HIGH...BUT ANTICIPATE 36HR RAINFALL AMOUNTS BTWN 1-2" WILL
BE COMMON WITH LCL AMOUNTS UP TO 3" PSBL.

SRLY FLOW WILL PUSH MON AFTN TEMPS WELL ABV AVG...MAXES INTO THE
L/M80S AND MINS IN THE M/U60S. TEMPS DROPPING TUE-WED AS THE FRONT
SAGS THRU CENTRAL FL WITH THICK CLOUD COVER. TEMPS IN MANY AREAS MAY
NOT RANGE BY MORE THAN 10F DEG DEPENDING ON HOW FAR S THE FRONT
MANAGES TO PENETRATE. MAXES IN THE L/M70S TUE...MINS TUE NIGHT
M/U50S EXCEPT M/U60S ALONG THE TREASURE COAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
MAXES WED L/M60 EXCEPT U60S/L70S ALONG THE TREASURE COAST.

THU-SAT...UPDATE TO FOLLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...KXMR PROFILER DATA CONTINUES TO SHOW A LLWS PROFILE WITH
VEERING WINDS AT 0.5 TO 1.0KFT 32-35KT FROM 120-130 DEGREES. SURFACE
WINDS ALONG THE COAST LOOK A LITTLE TOO STRONG/GUSTY ATTM FOR THE
NECESSARY SHEAR VALUES...BUT INLAND ANOTHER STORY. 06Z TAF PACKAGE
MAINTAINED LLWS THROUGH EARLY MORNING. WILL RE-EVALUATE AROUND 11Z.

OTRW...PREVAILING MVFR CIGS WITH AREAS VSBYS NR 4-5SM IN LIGHT
PRECIP AND MIST. POCKETS OF IFR CIGS FEW AND FAR BETWEEN (MCO ATTM).
DON`T EXPECT TO SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF IFR CIGS AFTER SUNRISE AS
BLYR WARM/MIXES AND THE WARM FRONT SHIFT RAPIDLY NWD. GUSTY SE-SSE
WINDS FROM 130-160/15-18KT GUSTING TO 23-26KT...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...NO CHGS. SOLID SCA CONDITIONS IN PLACE...AND LOCAL BUOY
OBS LAST EVENING/EARLY THIS MORNING HAVE FLIRTED WITH HIGH SURF
ADV CRITERIA (6-7FT@41113/8-9FT@41114). PLAN TO ISSUE ANOTHER
STRONGLY WORDED STATEMENT FOR RIPS/ROUGH SURF THIS MORNING. OTRW...
ESE-SE WINDS 20-25KT WITH FQT GUSTS TO 30KT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
TO SSE-SRLY TONIGHT. THIS WILL CARRY THE HIGHER SEAS FARTHER AWAY
FROM THE COAST AS ONSHORE COMPONENT BECOMES LONGSHORE AND EVENTUALLY
SLIGHTLY OFFSHORE.

MON-MON NIGHT...FRONTAL BNDRY PUSHING INTO THE N FL PENINSULA WILL
BECOME PSEUDO-STATIONARY AS IT PLOWS INTO THE WRN FLANK OF A LARGE
RIDGE AXIS OVER THE WRN ATLC. A GENTLE TO MODERATE SRLY BREEZE WILL
PREVAIL THRU THE DAY...BCMG LIGHT TO GENTLE W/SW AFT SUNSET...BCMG
GENTLE TO MODERATE W/NW AFT MIDNIGHT AS THE BNDRY SAGS INTO CENTRAL
FL. SEAS 4-5FT NEARSHORE AND 5-7FT OFFSHORE THRU LATE AFTN...
SUBSIDING TO 3-4FT NEARSHORE AND 4-5FT OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...
SFC/BNDRY LYR WINDS WILL VEER TO A NERLY REGIME AS THE FRNTL BNDRY
STALLS IN THE VCNTY OF I-4/CAPE CANAVERAL. SPEEDS/DIRECTIONS WILL BE
VRBL BASED ON HOW FAR S THE FRONT PENETRATES BEFORE STALLING. AREAS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL SEE A PREVAILING LIGHT TO GENTLE E/NE
BREEZE WITH SEAS 2-4FT...BEHIND THE FRONT A PREVAILING MODERATE TO
FRESH N/NE BREEZE WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 5-7FT. WILL FOCUS THE
BREAKPOINT ON SEBASTIAN INLET...THOUGH THIS MAY FLUCTUATE WITH
LATER FCSTS.

WED-WED NIGHT...
A SFC SLOW IS EXPECTED TO DVLP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY DAYBREAK
WED AND LIFT RAPIDLY UP THE ERN SEABOARD...REACHING THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES BY DAYBREAK THU. THIS LOW WILL PULL THE COLD FRONT CLEAR
OF THE FL PENINSULA ARND SUNSET WED EVNG. THE POST FRONTAL HI PRES
RIDGE WILL INTERACT WITH THE DEPARTING FRNTL TROF TO GENERATE A
FRESH TO STRONG N/NW BREEZE THRU WED WITH 5-7FT SEAS NEARSHORE AND
8-10FT SEAS OFFSHORE.

THU-THU NIGHT...
SFC PGRAD WILL SLACKEN AS THE POST-FRONTAL RIDGE LIFTS INTO THE DEEP
SOUTH...ALLOWING WINDS THE NRLY WINDS TO DIMINISH TO A MODERATE TO
FREEZE BREEZE BY MIDDAY...THEN A GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZE
OVERNIGHT. HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY IN THE GULF
STREAM WHERE THE NRLY WINDS/SRLY CURRENT WILL GENERATE SQUARE WAVES.
SEAS 4-6FT NEARSHORE AND 6-8FT OFFSHORE THRU THE DAY...SUBSIDING TO
3-5FT NEARSHORE AND 4-6FT OFFSHORE AFT SUNSET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  82  71  80  63 /  50  40  40  40
MCO  84  69  83  66 /  50  30  40  30
MLB  83  73  82  69 /  50  30  30  40
VRB  83  73  82  70 /  50  30  20  40
LEE  83  69  82  64 /  50  40  40  30
SFB  83  70  82  64 /  50  30  40  30
ORL  83  70  83  66 /  50  30  40  30
FPR  83  72  82  69 /  50  30  20  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE
     OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER
     INLET OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY
     LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST MONDAY FOR WATERS FROM
     FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO
     60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
     SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...CRISTALDI
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX....BRAGAW








000
FXUS62 KMLB 230902
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
355 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...

...ROUGH BOATING/BEACH CONDITIONS CONTINUE...

CURRENT...A WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSE IS LOCATED OVER THE FL PANHANDLE
IS BEING EJECTED NEWD BY AN UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE KICKER. LARGE SWATH
OF RAIN AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE COVERS NORTH FL AND POINTS NORTH/NE.
FARTHER SOUTH THE SURFACE WARM FRONT LOOKS TO BE NEAR LAKE OKEE WITH
STRONG ONSHORE FLOW RAPIDLY MODIFYING THE INCREASINGLY SHALLOW
PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS. CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN/ SPRINKLES/DRIZZLE
PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA WITH AN EMBEDDED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWER
BAND WORKING ITS WAY NWD OVER THE TREASURE COAST. BREEZY CONDITIONS
PREVAIL OVER THE SPACE AND TREASURE COAST COUNTIES WITH SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS 15-20 MPH...GUSTING TO 25-30 MPH... ESPECIALLY CLOSE
TO THE COAST. NOT AT ALL SURPRISINGLY...GIVEN THE CLOUDS/WINDS TEMPS
HAVE SHOWN ABSOLUTELY NO NOCTURNAL DROP...68-71F N/W OF LAKE
KISM-KTIX...AND 72-75F TO THE S/E.

TODAY...UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH TAKE ON NEGATIVE TILT AND TURNS
NEWD LIKE ITS PREDECESSOR...MOVING RAPIDLY NEWD FROM THE LWR MS VLY
BY MID DAY...INTO THE TN VALLEY BY 00Z...THEN DRAGGING A DEFORMING
MID LEVEL VORT AXIS SEWD ACROSS THE PENINSULA TONIGHT. AT THE
SURFACE...BEST UPGLIDE WILL SHIFT NWD...CARRYING THICKER MULTI
LAYERED CLOUDS WITH IT. AIDED BY WHAT SHOULD BE DIURNAL HEATING...
EXPECT WARM FRONT TO  "JUMP" NWD ACROSS THE CTRL PENINSULA...WITH
WINDS SHIFTING TO SE-SSE BY THIS AFTERNOON. SHOULD SEE DEVELOPMENT
OF SCATTERED CONVECTION AS THE LIGHTER STRATIFORM RAINS MOVE NWD OUT
OF THE AREA. TEMPS SHOULD REACH L-M80S ALL AREAS. SHOULD BE FAIRLY
BREEZY TODAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING...AS LCL PGRAD REMAINS
TIGHT.

TONIGHT...DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD END A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET
WITH SFC FLOW VEERING TO SRLY AND DECREASING. SETUP LOOKS GOOD FOR
LATE NIGHT LOW CLOUDS - PERHAPS SOME LOCAL MIST/FOG...HOWEVER WINDS
AT THE SFC ESPECIALLY JUST OFF THE DECK DON`T LOOK AT ALL FAVORABLE
FOR SIGNIFICANT FOG. WARM WITH MINS IN THE U60S-L70S.

MON-MON NIGHT...AN UNSETTLED WX PD INTO MIDWEEK AS A SHORT WAVE TROF
EXTENDING DOWN THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES FROM SASKATCHEWAN TO THE
RIO GRAND VALLEY GRINDS ITS WAY INTO THE WRN FLANK OF A LARGE HI
PRES RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC TO THE MS RIVER VALLEY. THE
H30-H20 JET OVER THE E PAC CONTINUES TO HOLD A STRONG ZONAL
COMPONENT BUT ITS LEADING EDGE IS BEGINNING TO DIG INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA. WITH A MAX SPEED OF 140KTS IMPINGING ON THE PAC NW AND
ITS 100KT ISOTACH UNBROKEN CLEAR BACK TO JAPAN...THERE WILL BE NO
ENERGY SHORTAGE FOR THE STORM SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS.

THE WRN JET STREAK WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY AS PUSHES E...FORCING
THE STORM SYSTEM INTO THE GREAT LAKES AS IT BOMBS OUT INTO A 975MB
LOW BY DAYBREAK MON. HOWEVER...BY THE TIME IT DOES...ENERGY FROM THE
WRN JET WILL HAVE ROUNDED THE BASE OF THE SHORT WAVE TROF...ALLOWING
THE LIFTING SIDE OF THE SHORT WAVE TO STRENGTHEN SUBSTANTIALLY. GFS
ESTIMATING THE H30-H20 JET INCREASING TO 150KTS OVER THE MID/DEEP
SOUTH BY 00Z TUE. HOWEVER...AS IMPRESSIVE AS IT SOUNDS...THIS
LIFTING ORIENTATION OF THE JET WILL ALL BUT GUARANTEE THE SYSTEM
WILL LIFT INTO ERN CANADA TOO QUICKLY TO PROVIDE ANY SUPPORT TO THE
SRN EXTENSION OF ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT...LEAVING IT WITH ONLY ITS
OWN MOMENTUM FOR FORWARD PROGRESS. GIVEN THE POSITION OF THE ATLC
RIDGE...THIS PROGRESS WILL BE SLOW.

SHALLOW FROPA WILL FORCE H100-H90 WINDS TO VEER FROM SW ON MON TO NE
BY DAYBREAK TUE. THE TROF WILL ERODE THE WRN FLANK OF THE ATLC
RIDGE...BUT WILL SACRIFICE ITS FORWARD MOTION TO DO SO. MEANWHILE...
AN H85-H50 ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NE OF THE BAHAMA BANK WILL MAINTAIN
AN EXISTING W/SW FLOW THRU THE MID LYRS THAT WILL GENERATE A LOW/MID
LVL ISENTROPIC LIFT INTO WED AFTN.

DRY AIR THRU THE H85-H50 LYR WILL REMAIN THRU MON AFTN AS THE SW
FLOW TAPS A DRY TONGUE OVER THE NW CARIB/YUCATAN PENINSULA. WHILE
THIS WILL LIMIT POPS TO THE 20-40PCT RANGE...IT ALSO WILL ENHANCE
TSTM POTENTIAL THRU MON AFTN...ESPECIALLY AS H70-H50 LAPSE RATES AOA
7C/KM OVER THE GOMEX BEGIN TO FILTER INTO THE PENINSULA. HOWEVER...
THE H50 LYR WILL UNDERGO WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION THAT WILL PUSH THE
-10C ISOTHERM WELL NW OF THE CENTRAL FL...SO OVERALL STRONG/SVR WX
THREAT WILL REMAIN LOW.

SRLY WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS ABV AVG...MAXES L/M80S AND MINS M/U60S...
EXCEPT N70 ALONG THE TREASURE COAST.

TUE-WED...AIRMASS WILL BECOME SATURATED ON TUE AS DEEP MOISTURE OVER
THE CENTRAL/ERN CARIB ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE ATLC RIDGE AND LIFTS N
INTO FL...ERODING THE MID LVL DRY AIR. WITH MOISTURE INCREASING IN
THE PRESENCE OF STRONG AND PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC LIFT AND A PSEUDO-
STATIONARY FRONT...PRECIP WILL BE LIKELY FROM DAYBREAK 12Z TUE THRU
00Z THU. WHILE THE THERMAL PROFILE DOES NOT INDICATE SVR WX... THE
CUMULATIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL WILL BE HIGH. INITIAL QPF NUMBERS FROM
GFS SEEM HIGH...BUT ANTICIPATE 36HR RAINFALL AMOUNTS BTWN 1-2" WILL
BE COMMON WITH LCL AMOUNTS UP TO 3" PSBL.

SRLY FLOW WILL PUSH MON AFTN TEMPS WELL ABV AVG...MAXES INTO THE
L/M80S AND MINS IN THE M/U60S. TEMPS DROPPING TUE-WED AS THE FRONT
SAGS THRU CENTRAL FL WITH THICK CLOUD COVER. TEMPS IN MANY AREAS MAY
NOT RANGE BY MORE THAN 10F DEG DEPENDING ON HOW FAR S THE FRONT
MANAGES TO PENETRATE. MAXES IN THE L/M70S TUE...MINS TUE NIGHT
M/U50S EXCEPT M/U60S ALONG THE TREASURE COAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
MAXES WED L/M60 EXCEPT U60S/L70S ALONG THE TREASURE COAST.

THU-SAT...UPDATE TO FOLLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...KXMR PROFILER DATA CONTINUES TO SHOW A LLWS PROFILE WITH
VEERING WINDS AT 0.5 TO 1.0KFT 32-35KT FROM 120-130 DEGREES. SURFACE
WINDS ALONG THE COAST LOOK A LITTLE TOO STRONG/GUSTY ATTM FOR THE
NECESSARY SHEAR VALUES...BUT INLAND ANOTHER STORY. 06Z TAF PACKAGE
MAINTAINED LLWS THROUGH EARLY MORNING. WILL RE-EVALUATE AROUND 11Z.

OTRW...PREVAILING MVFR CIGS WITH AREAS VSBYS NR 4-5SM IN LIGHT
PRECIP AND MIST. POCKETS OF IFR CIGS FEW AND FAR BETWEEN (MCO ATTM).
DON`T EXPECT TO SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF IFR CIGS AFTER SUNRISE AS
BLYR WARM/MIXES AND THE WARM FRONT SHIFT RAPIDLY NWD. GUSTY SE-SSE
WINDS FROM 130-160/15-18KT GUSTING TO 23-26KT...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...NO CHGS. SOLID SCA CONDITIONS IN PLACE...AND LOCAL BUOY
OBS LAST EVENING/EARLY THIS MORNING HAVE FLIRTED WITH HIGH SURF
ADV CRITERIA (6-7FT@41113/8-9FT@41114). PLAN TO ISSUE ANOTHER
STRONGLY WORDED STATEMENT FOR RIPS/ROUGH SURF THIS MORNING. OTRW...
ESE-SE WINDS 20-25KT WITH FQT GUSTS TO 30KT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
TO SSE-SRLY TONIGHT. THIS WILL CARRY THE HIGHER SEAS FARTHER AWAY
FROM THE COAST AS ONSHORE COMPONENT BECOMES LONGSHORE AND EVENTUALLY
SLIGHTLY OFFSHORE.

MON-MON NIGHT...FRONTAL BNDRY PUSHING INTO THE N FL PENINSULA WILL
BECOME PSEUDO-STATIONARY AS IT PLOWS INTO THE WRN FLANK OF A LARGE
RIDGE AXIS OVER THE WRN ATLC. A GENTLE TO MODERATE SRLY BREEZE WILL
PREVAIL THRU THE DAY...BCMG LIGHT TO GENTLE W/SW AFT SUNSET...BCMG
GENTLE TO MODERATE W/NW AFT MIDNIGHT AS THE BNDRY SAGS INTO CENTRAL
FL. SEAS 4-5FT NEARSHORE AND 5-7FT OFFSHORE THRU LATE AFTN...
SUBSIDING TO 3-4FT NEARSHORE AND 4-5FT OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...
SFC/BNDRY LYR WINDS WILL VEER TO A NERLY REGIME AS THE FRNTL BNDRY
STALLS IN THE VCNTY OF I-4/CAPE CANAVERAL. SPEEDS/DIRECTIONS WILL BE
VRBL BASED ON HOW FAR S THE FRONT PENETRATES BEFORE STALLING. AREAS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL SEE A PREVAILING LIGHT TO GENTLE E/NE
BREEZE WITH SEAS 2-4FT...BEHIND THE FRONT A PREVAILING MODERATE TO
FRESH N/NE BREEZE WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 5-7FT. WILL FOCUS THE
BREAKPOINT ON SEBASTIAN INLET...THOUGH THIS MAY FLUCTUATE WITH
LATER FCSTS.

WED-WED NIGHT...
A SFC SLOW IS EXPECTED TO DVLP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY DAYBREAK
WED AND LIFT RAPIDLY UP THE ERN SEABOARD...REACHING THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES BY DAYBREAK THU. THIS LOW WILL PULL THE COLD FRONT CLEAR
OF THE FL PENINSULA ARND SUNSET WED EVNG. THE POST FRONTAL HI PRES
RIDGE WILL INTERACT WITH THE DEPARTING FRNTL TROF TO GENERATE A
FRESH TO STRONG N/NW BREEZE THRU WED WITH 5-7FT SEAS NEARSHORE AND
8-10FT SEAS OFFSHORE.

THU-THU NIGHT...
SFC PGRAD WILL SLACKEN AS THE POST-FRONTAL RIDGE LIFTS INTO THE DEEP
SOUTH...ALLOWING WINDS THE NRLY WINDS TO DIMINISH TO A MODERATE TO
FREEZE BREEZE BY MIDDAY...THEN A GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZE
OVERNIGHT. HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY IN THE GULF
STREAM WHERE THE NRLY WINDS/SRLY CURRENT WILL GENERATE SQUARE WAVES.
SEAS 4-6FT NEARSHORE AND 6-8FT OFFSHORE THRU THE DAY...SUBSIDING TO
3-5FT NEARSHORE AND 4-6FT OFFSHORE AFT SUNSET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  82  71  80  63 /  50  40  40  40
MCO  84  69  83  66 /  50  30  40  30
MLB  83  73  82  69 /  50  30  30  40
VRB  83  73  82  70 /  50  30  20  40
LEE  83  69  82  64 /  50  40  40  30
SFB  83  70  82  64 /  50  30  40  30
ORL  83  70  83  66 /  50  30  40  30
FPR  83  72  82  69 /  50  30  20  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE
     OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER
     INLET OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY
     LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST MONDAY FOR WATERS FROM
     FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO
     60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
     SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...CRISTALDI
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX....BRAGAW







000
FXUS62 KMLB 230901
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
355 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...

...ROUGH BOATING/BEACH CONDITIONS CONTINUE...

CURRENT...A WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSE IS LOCATED OVER THE FL PANHANDLE
IS BEING EJECTED NEWD BY AN UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE KICKER. LARGE SWATH
OF RAIN AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE COVERS NORTH FL AND POINTS NORTH/NE.
FARTHER SOUTH THE SURFACE WARM FRONT LOOKS TO BE NEAR LAKE OKEE WITH
STRONG ONSHORE FLOW RAPIDLY MODIFYING THE INCREASINGLY SHALLOW
PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS. CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN/ SPRINKLES/DRIZZLE
PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA WITH AN EMBEDDED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWER
BAND WORKING ITS WAY NWD OVER THE TREASURE COAST. BREEZY CONDITIONS
PREVAIL OVER THE SPACE AND TREASURE COAST COUNTIES WITH SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS 15-20 MPH...GUSTING TO 25-30 MPH... ESPECIALLY CLOSE
TO THE COAST. NOT AT ALL SURPRISINGLY...GIVEN THE CLOUDS/WINDS TEMPS
HAVE SHOWN ABSOLUTELY NO NOCTURNAL DROP...68-71F N/W OF LAKE
KISM-KTIX...AND 72-75F TO THE S/E.

TODAY...UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH TAKE ON NEGATIVE TILT AND TURNS
NEWD LIKE ITS PREDECESSOR...MOVING RAPIDLY NEWD FROM THE LWR MS VLY
BY MID DAY...INTO THE TN VALLEY BY 00Z...THEN DRAGGING A DEFORMING
MID LEVEL VORT AXIS SEWD ACROSS THE PENINSULA TONIGHT. AT THE
SURFACE...BEST UPGLIDE WILL SHIFT NWD...CARRYING THICKER MULTI
LAYERED CLOUDS WITH IT. AIDED BY WHAT SHOULD BE DIURNAL HEATING...
EXPECT WARM FRONT TO  "JUMP" NWD ACROSS THE CTRL PENINSULA...WITH
WINDS SHIFTING TO SE-SSE BY THIS AFTERNOON. SHOULD SEE DEVELOPMENT
OF SCATTERED CONVECTION AS THE LIGHTER STRATIFORM RAINS MOVE NWD OUT
OF THE AREA. TEMPS SHOULD REACH L-M80S ALL AREAS. SHOULD BE FAIRLY
BREEZY TODAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING...AS LCL PGRAD REMAINS
TIGHT.

TONIGHT...DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD END A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET
WITH SFC FLOW VEERING TO SRLY AND DECREASING. SETUP LOOKS GOOD FOR
LATE NIGHT LOW CLOUDS - PERHAPS SOME LOCAL MIST/FOG...HOWEVER WINDS
AT THE SFC ESPECIALLY JUST OFF THE DECK DON`T LOOK AT ALL FAVORABLE
FOR SIGNIFICANT FOG. WARM WITH MINS IN THE U60S-L70S.

MON-MON NIGHT...AN UNSETTLED WX PD INTO MIDWEEK AS A SHORT WAVE TROF
EXTENDING DOWN THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES FROM SASKATCHEWAN TO THE
RIO GRAND VALLEY GRINDS ITS WAY INTO THE WRN FLANK OF A LARGE HI
PRES RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC TO THE MS RIVER VALLEY. THE
H30-H20 JET OVER THE E PAC CONTINUES TO HOLD A STRONG ZONAL
COMPONENT BUT ITS LEADING EDGE IS BEGINNING TO DIG INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA. WITH A MAX SPEED OF 140KTS IMPINGING ON THE PAC NW AND
ITS 100KT ISOTACH UNBROKEN CLEAR BACK TO JAPAN...THERE WILL BE NO
ENERGY SHORTAGE FOR THE STORM SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS.

THE WRN JET STREAK WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY AS PUSHES E...FORCING
THE STORM SYSTEM INTO THE GREAT LAKES AS IT BOMBS OUT INTO A 975MB
LOW BY DAYBREAK MON. HOWEVER...BY THE TIME IT DOES...ENERGY FROM THE
WRN JET WILL HAVE ROUNDED THE BASE OF THE SHORT WAVE TROF...ALLOWING
THE LIFTING SIDE OF THE SHORT WAVE TO STRENGTHEN SUBSTANTIALLY. GFS
ESTIMATING THE H30-H20 JET INCREASING TO 150KTS OVER THE MID/DEEP
SOUTH BY 00Z TUE. HOWEVER...AS IMPRESSIVE AS IT SOUNDS...THIS
LIFTING ORIENTATION OF THE JET WILL ALL BUT GUARANTEE THE SYSTEM
WILL LIFT INTO ERN CANADA TOO QUICKLY TO PROVIDE ANY SUPPORT TO THE
SRN EXTENSION OF ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT...LEAVING IT WITH ONLY ITS
OWN MOMENTUM FOR FORWARD PROGRESS. GIVEN THE POSITION OF THE ATLC
RIDGE...THIS PROGRESS WILL BE SLOW.

SHALLOW FROPA WILL FORCE H100-H90 WINDS TO VEER FROM SW ON MON TO NE
BY DAYBREAK TUE. THE TROF WILL ERODE THE WRN FLANK OF THE ATLC
RIDGE...BUT WILL SACRIFICE ITS FORWARD MOTION TO DO SO. MEANWHILE...
AN H85-H50 ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NE OF THE BAHAMA BANK WILL MAINTAIN
AN EXISTING W/SW FLOW THRU THE MID LYRS THAT WILL GENERATE A LOW/MID
LVL ISENTROPIC LIFT INTO WED AFTN.

DRY AIR THRU THE H85-H50 LYR WILL REMAIN THRU MON AFTN AS THE SW
FLOW TAPS A DRY TONGUE OVER THE NW CARIB/YUCATAN PENINSULA. WHILE
THIS WILL LIMIT POPS TO THE 20-40PCT RANGE...IT ALSO WILL ENHANCE
TSTM POTENTIAL THRU MON AFTN...ESPECIALLY AS H70-H50 LAPSE RATES AOA
7C/KM OVER THE GOMEX BEGIN TO FILTER INTO THE PENINSULA. HOWEVER...
THE H50 LYR WILL UNDERGO WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION THAT WILL PUSH THE
-10C ISOTHERM WELL NW OF THE CENTRAL FL...SO OVERALL STRONG/SVR WX
THREAT WILL REMAIN LOW.

SRLY WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS ABV AVG...MAXES L/M80S AND MINS M/U60S...
EXCEPT N70 ALONG THE TREASURE COAST.

TUE-WED...AIRMASS WILL BECOME SATURATED ON TUE AS DEEP MOISTURE OVER
THE CENTRAL/ERN CARIB ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE ATLC RIDGE AND LIFTS N
INTO FL...ERODING THE MID LVL DRY AIR. WITH MOISTURE INCREASING IN
THE PRESENCE OF STRONG AND PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC LIFT AND A PSEUDO-
STATIONARY FRONT...PRECIP WILL BE LIKELY FROM DAYBREAK 12Z TUE THRU
00Z THU. WHILE THE THERMAL PROFILE DOES NOT INDICATE SVR WX... THE
CUMULATIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL WILL BE HIGH. INITIAL QPF NUMBERS FROM
GFS SEEM HIGH...BUT ANTICIPATE 36HR RAINFALL AMOUNTS BTWN 1-2" WILL
BE COMMON WITH LCL AMOUNTS UP TO 3" PSBL.

SRLY FLOW WILL PUSH MON AFTN TEMPS WELL ABV AVG...MAXES INTO THE
L/M80S AND MINS IN THE M/U60S. TEMPS DROPPING TUE-WED AS THE FRONT
SAGS THRU CENTRAL FL WITH THICK CLOUD COVER. TEMPS IN MANY AREAS MAY
NOT RANGE BY MORE THAN 10F DEG DEPENDING ON HOW FAR S THE FRONT
MANAGES TO PENETRATE. MAXES IN THE L/M70S TUE...MINS TUE NIGHT
M/U50S EXCEPT M/U60S ALONG THE TREASURE COAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
MAXES WED L/M60 EXCEPT U60S/L70S ALONG THE TREASURE COAST.

THU-SAT...UPDATE TO FOLLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...KXMR PROFILER DATA CONTINUES TO SHOW A LLWS PROFILE WITH
VEERING WINDS AT 0.5 TO 1.0KFT 32-35KT FROM 120-130 DEGREES. SURFACE
WINDS ALONG THE COAST LOOK A LITTLE TOO STRONG/GUSTY ATTM FOR THE
NECESSARY SHEAR VALUES...BUT INLAND ANOTHER STORY. 06Z TAF PACKAGE
MAINTAINED LLWS THROUGH EARLY MORNING. WILL RE-EVALUATE AROUND 11Z.

OTRW...PREVAILING MVFR CIGS WITH AREAS VSBYS NR 4-5SM IN LIGHT
PRECIP AND MIST. POCKETS OF IFR CIGS FEW AND FAR BETWEEN (MCO ATTM).
DON`T EXPECT TO SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF IFR CIGS AFTER SUNRISE AS
BLYR WARM/MIXES AND THE WARM FRONT SHIFT RAPIDLY NWD. GUSTY SE-SSE
WINDS FROM 130-160/15-18KT GUSTING TO 23-26KT...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...NO CHGS. SOLID SCA CONDITIONS IN PLACE...AND LOCAL BUOY
OBS LAST EVENING/EARLY THIS MORNING HAVE FLIRTED WITH HIGH SURF
ADV CRITERIA (6-7FT@41113/8-9FT@41114). PLAN TO ISSUE ANOTHER
STRONGLY WORDED STATEMENT FOR RIPS/ROUGH SURF THIS MORNING. OTRW...
ESE-SE WINDS 20-25KT WITH FQT GUSTS TO 30KT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
TO SSE-SRLY TONIGHT. THIS WILL CARRY THE HIGHER SEAS FARTHER AWAY
FROM THE COAST AS ONSHORE COMPONENT BECOMES LONGSHORE AND EVENTUALLY
SLIGHTLY OFFSHORE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  82  71  80  63 /  50  40  40  40
MCO  84  69  83  66 /  50  30  40  30
MLB  83  73  82  69 /  50  30  30  40
VRB  83  73  82  70 /  50  30  20  40
LEE  83  69  82  64 /  50  40  40  30
SFB  83  70  82  64 /  50  30  40  30
ORL  83  70  83  66 /  50  30  40  30
FPR  83  72  82  69 /  50  30  20  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE
     OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER
     INLET OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY
     LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST MONDAY FOR WATERS FROM
     FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO
     60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
     SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...CRISTALDI
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX....BRAGAW






000
FXUS62 KMLB 230901
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
355 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...

...ROUGH BOATING/BEACH CONDITIONS CONTINUE...

CURRENT...A WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSE IS LOCATED OVER THE FL PANHANDLE
IS BEING EJECTED NEWD BY AN UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE KICKER. LARGE SWATH
OF RAIN AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE COVERS NORTH FL AND POINTS NORTH/NE.
FARTHER SOUTH THE SURFACE WARM FRONT LOOKS TO BE NEAR LAKE OKEE WITH
STRONG ONSHORE FLOW RAPIDLY MODIFYING THE INCREASINGLY SHALLOW
PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS. CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN/ SPRINKLES/DRIZZLE
PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA WITH AN EMBEDDED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWER
BAND WORKING ITS WAY NWD OVER THE TREASURE COAST. BREEZY CONDITIONS
PREVAIL OVER THE SPACE AND TREASURE COAST COUNTIES WITH SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS 15-20 MPH...GUSTING TO 25-30 MPH... ESPECIALLY CLOSE
TO THE COAST. NOT AT ALL SURPRISINGLY...GIVEN THE CLOUDS/WINDS TEMPS
HAVE SHOWN ABSOLUTELY NO NOCTURNAL DROP...68-71F N/W OF LAKE
KISM-KTIX...AND 72-75F TO THE S/E.

TODAY...UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH TAKE ON NEGATIVE TILT AND TURNS
NEWD LIKE ITS PREDECESSOR...MOVING RAPIDLY NEWD FROM THE LWR MS VLY
BY MID DAY...INTO THE TN VALLEY BY 00Z...THEN DRAGGING A DEFORMING
MID LEVEL VORT AXIS SEWD ACROSS THE PENINSULA TONIGHT. AT THE
SURFACE...BEST UPGLIDE WILL SHIFT NWD...CARRYING THICKER MULTI
LAYERED CLOUDS WITH IT. AIDED BY WHAT SHOULD BE DIURNAL HEATING...
EXPECT WARM FRONT TO  "JUMP" NWD ACROSS THE CTRL PENINSULA...WITH
WINDS SHIFTING TO SE-SSE BY THIS AFTERNOON. SHOULD SEE DEVELOPMENT
OF SCATTERED CONVECTION AS THE LIGHTER STRATIFORM RAINS MOVE NWD OUT
OF THE AREA. TEMPS SHOULD REACH L-M80S ALL AREAS. SHOULD BE FAIRLY
BREEZY TODAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING...AS LCL PGRAD REMAINS
TIGHT.

TONIGHT...DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD END A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET
WITH SFC FLOW VEERING TO SRLY AND DECREASING. SETUP LOOKS GOOD FOR
LATE NIGHT LOW CLOUDS - PERHAPS SOME LOCAL MIST/FOG...HOWEVER WINDS
AT THE SFC ESPECIALLY JUST OFF THE DECK DON`T LOOK AT ALL FAVORABLE
FOR SIGNIFICANT FOG. WARM WITH MINS IN THE U60S-L70S.

MON-MON NIGHT...AN UNSETTLED WX PD INTO MIDWEEK AS A SHORT WAVE TROF
EXTENDING DOWN THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES FROM SASKATCHEWAN TO THE
RIO GRAND VALLEY GRINDS ITS WAY INTO THE WRN FLANK OF A LARGE HI
PRES RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC TO THE MS RIVER VALLEY. THE
H30-H20 JET OVER THE E PAC CONTINUES TO HOLD A STRONG ZONAL
COMPONENT BUT ITS LEADING EDGE IS BEGINNING TO DIG INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA. WITH A MAX SPEED OF 140KTS IMPINGING ON THE PAC NW AND
ITS 100KT ISOTACH UNBROKEN CLEAR BACK TO JAPAN...THERE WILL BE NO
ENERGY SHORTAGE FOR THE STORM SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS.

THE WRN JET STREAK WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY AS PUSHES E...FORCING
THE STORM SYSTEM INTO THE GREAT LAKES AS IT BOMBS OUT INTO A 975MB
LOW BY DAYBREAK MON. HOWEVER...BY THE TIME IT DOES...ENERGY FROM THE
WRN JET WILL HAVE ROUNDED THE BASE OF THE SHORT WAVE TROF...ALLOWING
THE LIFTING SIDE OF THE SHORT WAVE TO STRENGTHEN SUBSTANTIALLY. GFS
ESTIMATING THE H30-H20 JET INCREASING TO 150KTS OVER THE MID/DEEP
SOUTH BY 00Z TUE. HOWEVER...AS IMPRESSIVE AS IT SOUNDS...THIS
LIFTING ORIENTATION OF THE JET WILL ALL BUT GUARANTEE THE SYSTEM
WILL LIFT INTO ERN CANADA TOO QUICKLY TO PROVIDE ANY SUPPORT TO THE
SRN EXTENSION OF ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT...LEAVING IT WITH ONLY ITS
OWN MOMENTUM FOR FORWARD PROGRESS. GIVEN THE POSITION OF THE ATLC
RIDGE...THIS PROGRESS WILL BE SLOW.

SHALLOW FROPA WILL FORCE H100-H90 WINDS TO VEER FROM SW ON MON TO NE
BY DAYBREAK TUE. THE TROF WILL ERODE THE WRN FLANK OF THE ATLC
RIDGE...BUT WILL SACRIFICE ITS FORWARD MOTION TO DO SO. MEANWHILE...
AN H85-H50 ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NE OF THE BAHAMA BANK WILL MAINTAIN
AN EXISTING W/SW FLOW THRU THE MID LYRS THAT WILL GENERATE A LOW/MID
LVL ISENTROPIC LIFT INTO WED AFTN.

DRY AIR THRU THE H85-H50 LYR WILL REMAIN THRU MON AFTN AS THE SW
FLOW TAPS A DRY TONGUE OVER THE NW CARIB/YUCATAN PENINSULA. WHILE
THIS WILL LIMIT POPS TO THE 20-40PCT RANGE...IT ALSO WILL ENHANCE
TSTM POTENTIAL THRU MON AFTN...ESPECIALLY AS H70-H50 LAPSE RATES AOA
7C/KM OVER THE GOMEX BEGIN TO FILTER INTO THE PENINSULA. HOWEVER...
THE H50 LYR WILL UNDERGO WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION THAT WILL PUSH THE
-10C ISOTHERM WELL NW OF THE CENTRAL FL...SO OVERALL STRONG/SVR WX
THREAT WILL REMAIN LOW.

SRLY WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS ABV AVG...MAXES L/M80S AND MINS M/U60S...
EXCEPT N70 ALONG THE TREASURE COAST.

TUE-WED...AIRMASS WILL BECOME SATURATED ON TUE AS DEEP MOISTURE OVER
THE CENTRAL/ERN CARIB ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE ATLC RIDGE AND LIFTS N
INTO FL...ERODING THE MID LVL DRY AIR. WITH MOISTURE INCREASING IN
THE PRESENCE OF STRONG AND PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC LIFT AND A PSEUDO-
STATIONARY FRONT...PRECIP WILL BE LIKELY FROM DAYBREAK 12Z TUE THRU
00Z THU. WHILE THE THERMAL PROFILE DOES NOT INDICATE SVR WX... THE
CUMULATIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL WILL BE HIGH. INITIAL QPF NUMBERS FROM
GFS SEEM HIGH...BUT ANTICIPATE 36HR RAINFALL AMOUNTS BTWN 1-2" WILL
BE COMMON WITH LCL AMOUNTS UP TO 3" PSBL.

SRLY FLOW WILL PUSH MON AFTN TEMPS WELL ABV AVG...MAXES INTO THE
L/M80S AND MINS IN THE M/U60S. TEMPS DROPPING TUE-WED AS THE FRONT
SAGS THRU CENTRAL FL WITH THICK CLOUD COVER. TEMPS IN MANY AREAS MAY
NOT RANGE BY MORE THAN 10F DEG DEPENDING ON HOW FAR S THE FRONT
MANAGES TO PENETRATE. MAXES IN THE L/M70S TUE...MINS TUE NIGHT
M/U50S EXCEPT M/U60S ALONG THE TREASURE COAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
MAXES WED L/M60 EXCEPT U60S/L70S ALONG THE TREASURE COAST.

THU-SAT...UPDATE TO FOLLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...KXMR PROFILER DATA CONTINUES TO SHOW A LLWS PROFILE WITH
VEERING WINDS AT 0.5 TO 1.0KFT 32-35KT FROM 120-130 DEGREES. SURFACE
WINDS ALONG THE COAST LOOK A LITTLE TOO STRONG/GUSTY ATTM FOR THE
NECESSARY SHEAR VALUES...BUT INLAND ANOTHER STORY. 06Z TAF PACKAGE
MAINTAINED LLWS THROUGH EARLY MORNING. WILL RE-EVALUATE AROUND 11Z.

OTRW...PREVAILING MVFR CIGS WITH AREAS VSBYS NR 4-5SM IN LIGHT
PRECIP AND MIST. POCKETS OF IFR CIGS FEW AND FAR BETWEEN (MCO ATTM).
DON`T EXPECT TO SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF IFR CIGS AFTER SUNRISE AS
BLYR WARM/MIXES AND THE WARM FRONT SHIFT RAPIDLY NWD. GUSTY SE-SSE
WINDS FROM 130-160/15-18KT GUSTING TO 23-26KT...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...NO CHGS. SOLID SCA CONDITIONS IN PLACE...AND LOCAL BUOY
OBS LAST EVENING/EARLY THIS MORNING HAVE FLIRTED WITH HIGH SURF
ADV CRITERIA (6-7FT@41113/8-9FT@41114). PLAN TO ISSUE ANOTHER
STRONGLY WORDED STATEMENT FOR RIPS/ROUGH SURF THIS MORNING. OTRW...
ESE-SE WINDS 20-25KT WITH FQT GUSTS TO 30KT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
TO SSE-SRLY TONIGHT. THIS WILL CARRY THE HIGHER SEAS FARTHER AWAY
FROM THE COAST AS ONSHORE COMPONENT BECOMES LONGSHORE AND EVENTUALLY
SLIGHTLY OFFSHORE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  82  71  80  63 /  50  40  40  40
MCO  84  69  83  66 /  50  30  40  30
MLB  83  73  82  69 /  50  30  30  40
VRB  83  73  82  70 /  50  30  20  40
LEE  83  69  82  64 /  50  40  40  30
SFB  83  70  82  64 /  50  30  40  30
ORL  83  70  83  66 /  50  30  40  30
FPR  83  72  82  69 /  50  30  20  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE
     OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER
     INLET OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY
     LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST MONDAY FOR WATERS FROM
     FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO
     60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
     SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...CRISTALDI
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX....BRAGAW







000
FXUS62 KMLB 230205
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
905 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...

TONIGHT...
NOT MUCH TO ADD TO PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS STOUT ONSHORE WINDS
GRADUALLY VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST. WARM FRONT IS ILL-DEFINED DUE TO
THIS MODIFYING ONSHORE FLOW. SHOWERS HAVE BEEN ON THE LIGHT SIDE SO
FAR.  HOWEVER THE EVENING SOUNDINGS WERE SATURATED FROM 925-700 MB
WITH MIAMI HAVING 2 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER.  SO EXPECT A
LARGER AREA OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS LARGE SCALE LIFT DEVELOPS OUT AHEAD OF
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. LATEST RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS THIS MAY
ALREADY BE UNDERWAY WITH AREA OF SHOWERS EXPANDING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PENINSULA.

THERE IS STILL A CHANCE FOR A CONVERGENCE LINE TO SET UP FROM THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS TO THE COAST AND PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS.  THE
LOCAL WRF HAS BEEN SUGGESTING THIS AS A POSSIBLY ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN COAST BUT THE HRRR MODEL IS VERY UNIMPRESSIVE WITH ITS
PRECIP AREAWIDE.  THE VERY HIGH MOISTURE AMOUNTS AND IMPRESSIVE LOW
LEVEL WINDS SHOULD WIN OUT THOUGH AND BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN TO MOST
OF THE AREA.

WILL NOT CHANGE THE CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE A LITTLE
GREATER ISENTROPIC LIFT IS EXPECTED.  HAVE NUDGED UP LOW SCATTERED
NUMBERS IN THE FAR SOUTH INTERIOR TO 50 PERCENT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
STILL LOOK LESS THAN A HALF INCH EXCEPT NEAR THE COAST WHERE 1-2
INCH AMOUNTS COULD OCCUR IF A HEAVY PRECIP BAND SETS UP FOR A FEW
HOURS.

WITH ALL THE CLOUDS AND THE ONSHORE WIND FLOW...OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN NEARLY STEADY...AGAIN.  SO FAR TODAY...
VERO BEACH HAS ONLY HAD A 3 DEGREE TEMPERATURE RANGE WHILE DAYTONA
BEACH AND MELBOURNE HAD A 4 DEGREE RANGE.

MODIFIED PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SUN...WE WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES BUT
THE BULK OF THE RAIN WILL BE TO OUR NORTH. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH BREEZY S/SE FLOW AND DEW POINTS
ELEVATED INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS TO DEVELOP IN THIS WARM/STICKY AIR MASS DURING AFTERNOON
HEATING. GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN A
FEW STORMS BUT THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD STAY NORTH OF OUR AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...
CLOUD CEILINGS HAVE BEEN QUITE VARIABLE BUT IN GENERAL EXPECT
COASTAL SITES TO HAVE OCCASIONAL MVFR UNTIL MID-LATE MORNING
SUNDAY...WHILE INTERIOR SITES HAVE OCCASIONAL IFR IN RAIN/MIST...
ESPECIALLY KLEE TO KSFB. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR LOOKS TO BE A GOOD
BET FOR THE INTERIOR TERMINALS AS LOW LEVELS WILL BE RAIN
COOLED/STABILIZED BUT WINDS AT 2000 FT WILL BE AROUND 30 KNOTS.
BREEZY SOUTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT-SUN...STRONG SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT WITH EAST WINDS 25 KNOTS AND SEAS 8-10 FEET. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL NOT IMPROVE MUCH ON SUNDAY WHEN WINDS VEER TO THE
SOUTHEAST/SOUTH AND REMAIN AROUND 20 KNOTS WHILE SEAS ONLY SUBSIDE
A FOOT OR TWO.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE OUT 20 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20
     NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
     SEBASTIAN INLET OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST MONDAY FOR WATERS FROM
     FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO
     60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
     SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

FORECASTS...LASCODY
IMPACT WX...WIMMER






000
FXUS62 KMLB 230205
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
905 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...

TONIGHT...
NOT MUCH TO ADD TO PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS STOUT ONSHORE WINDS
GRADUALLY VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST. WARM FRONT IS ILL-DEFINED DUE TO
THIS MODIFYING ONSHORE FLOW. SHOWERS HAVE BEEN ON THE LIGHT SIDE SO
FAR.  HOWEVER THE EVENING SOUNDINGS WERE SATURATED FROM 925-700 MB
WITH MIAMI HAVING 2 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER.  SO EXPECT A
LARGER AREA OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS LARGE SCALE LIFT DEVELOPS OUT AHEAD OF
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. LATEST RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS THIS MAY
ALREADY BE UNDERWAY WITH AREA OF SHOWERS EXPANDING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PENINSULA.

THERE IS STILL A CHANCE FOR A CONVERGENCE LINE TO SET UP FROM THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS TO THE COAST AND PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS.  THE
LOCAL WRF HAS BEEN SUGGESTING THIS AS A POSSIBLY ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN COAST BUT THE HRRR MODEL IS VERY UNIMPRESSIVE WITH ITS
PRECIP AREAWIDE.  THE VERY HIGH MOISTURE AMOUNTS AND IMPRESSIVE LOW
LEVEL WINDS SHOULD WIN OUT THOUGH AND BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN TO MOST
OF THE AREA.

WILL NOT CHANGE THE CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE A LITTLE
GREATER ISENTROPIC LIFT IS EXPECTED.  HAVE NUDGED UP LOW SCATTERED
NUMBERS IN THE FAR SOUTH INTERIOR TO 50 PERCENT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
STILL LOOK LESS THAN A HALF INCH EXCEPT NEAR THE COAST WHERE 1-2
INCH AMOUNTS COULD OCCUR IF A HEAVY PRECIP BAND SETS UP FOR A FEW
HOURS.

WITH ALL THE CLOUDS AND THE ONSHORE WIND FLOW...OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN NEARLY STEADY...AGAIN.  SO FAR TODAY...
VERO BEACH HAS ONLY HAD A 3 DEGREE TEMPERATURE RANGE WHILE DAYTONA
BEACH AND MELBOURNE HAD A 4 DEGREE RANGE.

MODIFIED PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SUN...WE WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES BUT
THE BULK OF THE RAIN WILL BE TO OUR NORTH. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH BREEZY S/SE FLOW AND DEW POINTS
ELEVATED INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS TO DEVELOP IN THIS WARM/STICKY AIR MASS DURING AFTERNOON
HEATING. GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN A
FEW STORMS BUT THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD STAY NORTH OF OUR AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...
CLOUD CEILINGS HAVE BEEN QUITE VARIABLE BUT IN GENERAL EXPECT
COASTAL SITES TO HAVE OCCASIONAL MVFR UNTIL MID-LATE MORNING
SUNDAY...WHILE INTERIOR SITES HAVE OCCASIONAL IFR IN RAIN/MIST...
ESPECIALLY KLEE TO KSFB. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR LOOKS TO BE A GOOD
BET FOR THE INTERIOR TERMINALS AS LOW LEVELS WILL BE RAIN
COOLED/STABILIZED BUT WINDS AT 2000 FT WILL BE AROUND 30 KNOTS.
BREEZY SOUTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT-SUN...STRONG SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT WITH EAST WINDS 25 KNOTS AND SEAS 8-10 FEET. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL NOT IMPROVE MUCH ON SUNDAY WHEN WINDS VEER TO THE
SOUTHEAST/SOUTH AND REMAIN AROUND 20 KNOTS WHILE SEAS ONLY SUBSIDE
A FOOT OR TWO.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE OUT 20 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20
     NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
     SEBASTIAN INLET OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST MONDAY FOR WATERS FROM
     FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO
     60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
     SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

FORECASTS...LASCODY
IMPACT WX...WIMMER







000
FXUS62 KMLB 222100
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
400 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...

LARGE/STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED OFF THE MID ATLC COAST
WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE STOUT ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS EC FL TONIGHT
AS IT SHIFTS EAST INTO THE OPEN ATLC.

GRADUAL VEERING OF WINDS IN THE SFC-H85 LAYER FROM E TO SE AND
S...AND BACKING OF THE H70-H50 FLOW FROM WSW TO SW WILL CAUSE THE
OLD BOUNDARY LOCATED AROSS THE FL STRAITS TO LIFT BACK NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT. OR PERHAPS MORE LIKELY A NEW WARM FRONT WILL SIMPLY
REDEVELOP ACROSS NORTH FL OVERNIGHT. REGARDLESS...HIGHER MEAN PWAT
AIR MASS LURKING TO OUR SOUTH WILL ADVECT BACK NORTH ACROSS OUR
AREA. EXPECT ALREADY CLOUDY SKIES TO REMAIN SO...LOWERING AND
THICKENING IN THE PROCESS. AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN WITH EMBEDDED
MODERATE TO HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP...WITH SOME BANDED MARINE
ACTIVITY ALSO LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SPACE/TREASURE COASTS.
BEST LIFT AND BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL LIFT NORTHWARD WITH THE
FRONT...REACHING NORTH FL BY SUNDAY MORNING. SO HAVE DRAWN VERY
HIGH RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT
(LESS THAN ONE HALF INCH). LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST SOUTH OF THE CAPE IF MORE ORGANIZED
BANDING FEATURE(S) CAN DEVELOP.

OVERALL...CONDITIONS LOOK CLOUDY/DAMP BUT MILD. NOT A HUGE DIURNAL
RANGE GIVEN THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER. LOWS IN THE U60S-L70S.

SUN...WE WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES BUT
THE BULK OF THE RAIN WILL BE TO OUT NORTH. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH BREEZY S/SE FLOW. EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY
DOWNBURST WINDS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN A FEW STORMS BUT
THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD STAY NORTH OF OUR AREA.

SUN NIGHT-MON NIGHT...CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN UNSETTLED AS
FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE. A NEW FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL ENTER NORTH FLORIDA DURING THE
DAY ON MON. THIS FEATURE SHOULD MAKE A LITTLE MORE PROGRESS
SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT BEFORE BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY SOMEWHERE OVER
THE CENTRAL PENINSULA. A SMALL THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL EXIST SUN
NIGHT AND AGAIN MON MORNING. SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES INCREASE MON
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. WILL KEEP HIGHEST CHANCES
THROUGH THE PERIOD NEAR AND NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR. WILL GO WITH
30 PERCENT POPS NORTHWARD SUN NIGHT...40 PERCENT NORTHWARD FOR MON
AFTERNOON WITH 30 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCES MON NIGHT AREAWIDE. A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF LIGHTNING STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MON AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING.

THANKS TO SOUTHERLY FLOW MILD TEMPERATURES FORECAST FOR OVERNIGHT
SUN WITH READINGS ONLY FALLING INTO THE UPPER 60S WITH SOME LOWER
70S POSSIBLE ALONG THE SPACE/TREASURE COASTS. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
AGAIN WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON HIGHS ON MON TO SOAR WELL INTO THE 80S
WITH NEAR RECORD HIGHS FORECAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS MILD AGAIN MON
OVERNIGHT WITH 60S AGAIN FORECAST FOR A MAJORITY OF ECFL AND WITH
LOWER 70S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE BARRIER ISLANDS AND LOCALES NEAR THE
IMMEDIATE SPACE/TREASURE COASTS.

TUE-FRI...WET WX PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THRU MID WEEK AS THE UPR LVL
JET PATTERN BECOMES HIGHLY AMPLIFIED ACRS THE CONUS. JET ENERGY OVER
THE W PAC IS PLENTIFUL WITH H25 WINDS ARND 150KTS ENCROACHING ON THE
OREGON COAST. AS THIS JET DIGS INTO THE NW CONUS AND ITS ENERGY IS
TRANSLATED DOWNSTREAM...THE LIFTING JET OVER THE ERN CONUS WILL
STRENGTHEN CONSIDERABLY...THE 00Z GFS MODEL SUGGESTING MAX SPEEDS
ARND 200KTS DVLPG OVER NEW ENGLAND LATE TUE NIGHT WITH THE 150KT
ISOTACH TRAILING INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. THE STRONG UPR LVL DIVERGENCE
GENERATED BY THIS JET WILL INDUCE A NEW AREA OF LOW PRESSURE N OF
THE BAHAMA BANK DAYBREAK WED ALONG OR JUST AHEAD OF THE STALLED
FRONTAL BNDRY.

AS THE LOW DLVPS AND LIFTS UP THE ERN SEABOARD...IT WILL DRAG THE
FRONT CLEAR OF THE STATE...ALLOWING A DRY WX PD TO PREVAIL THRU THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. THE 22/00Z ECMWF INDICATES THIS HAPPENING
BY 00Z THU...22/00Z GFS ABOUT 12HRS SLOWER. WITH THE FRONT SAGGING
INTO CENTRAL FL ON TUE...WILL NEED TO PAINT THE AREA WITH LKLY POPS.
POPS DIMINISHING FROM THE W ON WED BUT REMAINING BTWN 30-50PCT...
20-30PCT...LINGERING ALONG THE COAST/LAKE OKEECHOBEE THRU WED NIGHT.
DRY WX FCST THU-FRI.

TUE TEMPS WILL REFLECT THE POSITION OF THE FRONT...MAXES RANGING
FROM THE L70S N OF I-4 TO THE L80S E OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE...MINS FROM
THE L50S TO L60S RESPECTIVELY. COOL/DRY AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL DROP MAX TEMPS INTO THE 60S AREAWIDE ON WED...MINS INTO
THE L40S-L50S WED NIGHT. LITTLE TEMP CHANGE EXPECTED THRU FRI AS A
SLOW MOVING HI PRES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL MAINTAIN A STEADY N/NW
FLOW.


&&

.AVIATION...
PREVAILING IFR/MVFR CIGS WITH OCCASIONAL -RA. HAVE INSERTED LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR FOR THE INTERIOR TERMINALS AFT 02Z AS WINDS ABOVE
THE BOUNDARY LAYER INCREASE TO 30-35 KNOTS AND SFC WINDS DECREASE
TO AROUND 10 KNOTS. BREEZY SOUTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH
GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...THE STRONG HIGH TO THE NORTH WILL MAINTAIN THE TIGHT
PRES GRAD WITH WINDS 25KT AND SEAS 8FT NEAR SHORE AND 10FT
OFFSHORE. LARGE BREAKING WAVES/HIGH SEAS WILL PRODUCE VERY
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT...AND MINOR EROSION AROUND
THE TIME OF HIGH TIMES THIS EVE AND AGAIN EARLY SUN.

SUN...WINDS VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST AND BEGIN TO DECREASE 15-20
KNOTS NEAR THE COAST BUT REMAINING NEAR 20 KNOTS OFFSHORE. SEAS
BEGIN A SLOW SUBSIDING BUT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN FOR ALL THE WATERS THROUGH THE DAY.

SUN NIGHT-MON NIGHT...UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH
THE PERIOD. A FRESH FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ENTER NORTH FLORIDA DURING
THE DAY ON MON AND STALL OUT ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL PENINSULA MON
OVERNIGHT. A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES THROUGH THE
NIGHT. SE FLOW 20-23 KTS WILL BECOME S/SSW BY DAYBREAK MON MORNING
AND SW/WSW MON NIGHT...PERHAPS W/NW BEHIND THE BOUNDARY (NORTH
WATERS) IF IT DOES INDEED MAKE IT THIS FAR SOUTH MON OVERNIGHT. WIND
SPEEDS WILL FALL TO 10-15 KTS DURING THE DAY MON INTO MON NIGHT.
SEAS INITIALLY 6-8 FT OFFSHORE AND 5-6 FT NEAR SHORE WILL SLOWLY
SUBSIDE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE CURRENT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS
BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH SUN NIGHT FOR OFFSHORE WATERS.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...COLD FRONT SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF CENTRAL
FL...RESULTING IN VRBL WINDS ACRS THE LCL ATLC...S/SE 10-15KTS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...N/NW 5-10KTS BEHIND IT. WINDS WILL FRESHEN OUT OF THE
N/NW AFT SUNSET AS A WEAK LOW PRES SYSTEM DVLPS N OF THE
BAHAMAS...MODERATE TO FRESH N OF SEBASTIAN INLET...GENTLE TO
MODERATE S OF THE INLET. SEAS 3-5FT N OF THE INLET AND 2-4FT S OF
THE INLET THRU THE DAY...BUILDING TO 5-7FT N OF THE INLET AND 3-5FT
S OF THE INLET AFT SUNSET.

WED-WED NIGHT...FRESH TO STRONG NW BREEZE WILL DVLP SHORTLY AFT
SUNRISE AS THE LOW PRES SYSTEM LIFTS N AND DRAGS THE COLD FRONT THRU
THE ATLC WATERS. SEAS BUILDING TO 6-8FT NEARSHORE AND 7-9FT OFFSHORE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR MON 24 NOV...

DAYTONA.....85 (1992)
ORLANDO.....86 (1992)
MELBOURNE...88 (1979)
VERO BEACH..85 (1948)


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  70  82  70  84 /  80  60  30  40
MCO  67  84  67  85 /  80  50  30  40
MLB  72  82  72  85 /  80  50  20  30
VRB  73  82  71  86 /  70  50  20  20
LEE  66  83  68  84 /  80  50  30  40
SFB  68  83  68  84 /  80  50  30  40
ORL  66  84  68  84 /  80  50  30  40
FPR  73  82  71  85 /  70  40  20  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE OUT 20 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20
     NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
     SEBASTIAN INLET OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST MONDAY FOR WATERS FROM
     FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO
     60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
     SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KELLY
LONG TERM....SEDLOCK









000
FXUS62 KMLB 222100
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
400 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...

LARGE/STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED OFF THE MID ATLC COAST
WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE STOUT ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS EC FL TONIGHT
AS IT SHIFTS EAST INTO THE OPEN ATLC.

GRADUAL VEERING OF WINDS IN THE SFC-H85 LAYER FROM E TO SE AND
S...AND BACKING OF THE H70-H50 FLOW FROM WSW TO SW WILL CAUSE THE
OLD BOUNDARY LOCATED AROSS THE FL STRAITS TO LIFT BACK NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT. OR PERHAPS MORE LIKELY A NEW WARM FRONT WILL SIMPLY
REDEVELOP ACROSS NORTH FL OVERNIGHT. REGARDLESS...HIGHER MEAN PWAT
AIR MASS LURKING TO OUR SOUTH WILL ADVECT BACK NORTH ACROSS OUR
AREA. EXPECT ALREADY CLOUDY SKIES TO REMAIN SO...LOWERING AND
THICKENING IN THE PROCESS. AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN WITH EMBEDDED
MODERATE TO HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP...WITH SOME BANDED MARINE
ACTIVITY ALSO LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SPACE/TREASURE COASTS.
BEST LIFT AND BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL LIFT NORTHWARD WITH THE
FRONT...REACHING NORTH FL BY SUNDAY MORNING. SO HAVE DRAWN VERY
HIGH RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT
(LESS THAN ONE HALF INCH). LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST SOUTH OF THE CAPE IF MORE ORGANIZED
BANDING FEATURE(S) CAN DEVELOP.

OVERALL...CONDITIONS LOOK CLOUDY/DAMP BUT MILD. NOT A HUGE DIURNAL
RANGE GIVEN THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER. LOWS IN THE U60S-L70S.

SUN...WE WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES BUT
THE BULK OF THE RAIN WILL BE TO OUT NORTH. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH BREEZY S/SE FLOW. EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY
DOWNBURST WINDS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN A FEW STORMS BUT
THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD STAY NORTH OF OUR AREA.

SUN NIGHT-MON NIGHT...CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN UNSETTLED AS
FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE. A NEW FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL ENTER NORTH FLORIDA DURING THE
DAY ON MON. THIS FEATURE SHOULD MAKE A LITTLE MORE PROGRESS
SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT BEFORE BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY SOMEWHERE OVER
THE CENTRAL PENINSULA. A SMALL THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL EXIST SUN
NIGHT AND AGAIN MON MORNING. SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES INCREASE MON
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. WILL KEEP HIGHEST CHANCES
THROUGH THE PERIOD NEAR AND NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR. WILL GO WITH
30 PERCENT POPS NORTHWARD SUN NIGHT...40 PERCENT NORTHWARD FOR MON
AFTERNOON WITH 30 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCES MON NIGHT AREAWIDE. A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF LIGHTNING STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MON AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING.

THANKS TO SOUTHERLY FLOW MILD TEMPERATURES FORECAST FOR OVERNIGHT
SUN WITH READINGS ONLY FALLING INTO THE UPPER 60S WITH SOME LOWER
70S POSSIBLE ALONG THE SPACE/TREASURE COASTS. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
AGAIN WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON HIGHS ON MON TO SOAR WELL INTO THE 80S
WITH NEAR RECORD HIGHS FORECAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS MILD AGAIN MON
OVERNIGHT WITH 60S AGAIN FORECAST FOR A MAJORITY OF ECFL AND WITH
LOWER 70S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE BARRIER ISLANDS AND LOCALES NEAR THE
IMMEDIATE SPACE/TREASURE COASTS.

TUE-FRI...WET WX PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THRU MID WEEK AS THE UPR LVL
JET PATTERN BECOMES HIGHLY AMPLIFIED ACRS THE CONUS. JET ENERGY OVER
THE W PAC IS PLENTIFUL WITH H25 WINDS ARND 150KTS ENCROACHING ON THE
OREGON COAST. AS THIS JET DIGS INTO THE NW CONUS AND ITS ENERGY IS
TRANSLATED DOWNSTREAM...THE LIFTING JET OVER THE ERN CONUS WILL
STRENGTHEN CONSIDERABLY...THE 00Z GFS MODEL SUGGESTING MAX SPEEDS
ARND 200KTS DVLPG OVER NEW ENGLAND LATE TUE NIGHT WITH THE 150KT
ISOTACH TRAILING INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. THE STRONG UPR LVL DIVERGENCE
GENERATED BY THIS JET WILL INDUCE A NEW AREA OF LOW PRESSURE N OF
THE BAHAMA BANK DAYBREAK WED ALONG OR JUST AHEAD OF THE STALLED
FRONTAL BNDRY.

AS THE LOW DLVPS AND LIFTS UP THE ERN SEABOARD...IT WILL DRAG THE
FRONT CLEAR OF THE STATE...ALLOWING A DRY WX PD TO PREVAIL THRU THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. THE 22/00Z ECMWF INDICATES THIS HAPPENING
BY 00Z THU...22/00Z GFS ABOUT 12HRS SLOWER. WITH THE FRONT SAGGING
INTO CENTRAL FL ON TUE...WILL NEED TO PAINT THE AREA WITH LKLY POPS.
POPS DIMINISHING FROM THE W ON WED BUT REMAINING BTWN 30-50PCT...
20-30PCT...LINGERING ALONG THE COAST/LAKE OKEECHOBEE THRU WED NIGHT.
DRY WX FCST THU-FRI.

TUE TEMPS WILL REFLECT THE POSITION OF THE FRONT...MAXES RANGING
FROM THE L70S N OF I-4 TO THE L80S E OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE...MINS FROM
THE L50S TO L60S RESPECTIVELY. COOL/DRY AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL DROP MAX TEMPS INTO THE 60S AREAWIDE ON WED...MINS INTO
THE L40S-L50S WED NIGHT. LITTLE TEMP CHANGE EXPECTED THRU FRI AS A
SLOW MOVING HI PRES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL MAINTAIN A STEADY N/NW
FLOW.


&&

.AVIATION...
PREVAILING IFR/MVFR CIGS WITH OCCASIONAL -RA. HAVE INSERTED LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR FOR THE INTERIOR TERMINALS AFT 02Z AS WINDS ABOVE
THE BOUNDARY LAYER INCREASE TO 30-35 KNOTS AND SFC WINDS DECREASE
TO AROUND 10 KNOTS. BREEZY SOUTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH
GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...THE STRONG HIGH TO THE NORTH WILL MAINTAIN THE TIGHT
PRES GRAD WITH WINDS 25KT AND SEAS 8FT NEAR SHORE AND 10FT
OFFSHORE. LARGE BREAKING WAVES/HIGH SEAS WILL PRODUCE VERY
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT...AND MINOR EROSION AROUND
THE TIME OF HIGH TIMES THIS EVE AND AGAIN EARLY SUN.

SUN...WINDS VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST AND BEGIN TO DECREASE 15-20
KNOTS NEAR THE COAST BUT REMAINING NEAR 20 KNOTS OFFSHORE. SEAS
BEGIN A SLOW SUBSIDING BUT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN FOR ALL THE WATERS THROUGH THE DAY.

SUN NIGHT-MON NIGHT...UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH
THE PERIOD. A FRESH FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ENTER NORTH FLORIDA DURING
THE DAY ON MON AND STALL OUT ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL PENINSULA MON
OVERNIGHT. A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES THROUGH THE
NIGHT. SE FLOW 20-23 KTS WILL BECOME S/SSW BY DAYBREAK MON MORNING
AND SW/WSW MON NIGHT...PERHAPS W/NW BEHIND THE BOUNDARY (NORTH
WATERS) IF IT DOES INDEED MAKE IT THIS FAR SOUTH MON OVERNIGHT. WIND
SPEEDS WILL FALL TO 10-15 KTS DURING THE DAY MON INTO MON NIGHT.
SEAS INITIALLY 6-8 FT OFFSHORE AND 5-6 FT NEAR SHORE WILL SLOWLY
SUBSIDE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE CURRENT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS
BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH SUN NIGHT FOR OFFSHORE WATERS.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...COLD FRONT SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF CENTRAL
FL...RESULTING IN VRBL WINDS ACRS THE LCL ATLC...S/SE 10-15KTS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...N/NW 5-10KTS BEHIND IT. WINDS WILL FRESHEN OUT OF THE
N/NW AFT SUNSET AS A WEAK LOW PRES SYSTEM DVLPS N OF THE
BAHAMAS...MODERATE TO FRESH N OF SEBASTIAN INLET...GENTLE TO
MODERATE S OF THE INLET. SEAS 3-5FT N OF THE INLET AND 2-4FT S OF
THE INLET THRU THE DAY...BUILDING TO 5-7FT N OF THE INLET AND 3-5FT
S OF THE INLET AFT SUNSET.

WED-WED NIGHT...FRESH TO STRONG NW BREEZE WILL DVLP SHORTLY AFT
SUNRISE AS THE LOW PRES SYSTEM LIFTS N AND DRAGS THE COLD FRONT THRU
THE ATLC WATERS. SEAS BUILDING TO 6-8FT NEARSHORE AND 7-9FT OFFSHORE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR MON 24 NOV...

DAYTONA.....85 (1992)
ORLANDO.....86 (1992)
MELBOURNE...88 (1979)
VERO BEACH..85 (1948)


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  70  82  70  84 /  80  60  30  40
MCO  67  84  67  85 /  80  50  30  40
MLB  72  82  72  85 /  80  50  20  30
VRB  73  82  71  86 /  70  50  20  20
LEE  66  83  68  84 /  80  50  30  40
SFB  68  83  68  84 /  80  50  30  40
ORL  66  84  68  84 /  80  50  30  40
FPR  73  82  71  85 /  70  40  20  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE OUT 20 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20
     NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
     SEBASTIAN INLET OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST MONDAY FOR WATERS FROM
     FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO
     60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
     SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KELLY
LONG TERM....SEDLOCK








000
FXUS62 KMLB 221547 AAA
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1045 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...

...ROUGH BOATING/SURF CONDITIONS WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED TO CURRENT FORECAST. MULTILAYERED
CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA WITH LOWERING CLOUD CEILINGS
THRU TONIGHT. WARM AIR ADVECTION/UPGLIDE PRODUCING (MID LEVEL)
ALTOCUMULUS WHILE STRONG EAST FLOW IS BRINGING WIDESPREAD STRATOCU
ONSHORE AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE TREASURE COAST.

(MODIFIED) THE LARGE SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTH WILL SHIFT EAST AND
OFFSHORE INTO THE ATLC OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS AS THE BASE OF A MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH UPSTREAM MOVES OVER THE NERN GOMEX/GULF
COAST...WITH SOME MID LEVEL VORTICITY REACHING THE BIG BEND AREA.
COMBINATION OF THESE TWO FEATURES WILL CAUSE GRADUAL VEERING OF
WINDS IN THE SFC-H85 FROM ENE-E TO SE AND S...WITH BACKING OF THE
H70-H50 FLOW FROM WSW TO SW. THIS WILL CAUSE THE OLD BOUNDARY TO
LIFT BACK NWD AS A WARM FRONT....ADVECTING THE HIGHER MEAN PWAT AIR
MASS LURKING TO OUR SOUTH BACK NWD ACROSS OUR AREA. AREAS OF LIGHT
RAIN WILL CONTINUE...WITH EMBEDDED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS IN
BANDED MARINE ACTIVITY ALONG THE SPACE/TREASURE COASTS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. BEST LIFT AND BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL LIFT
NWD WITH THE FRONT...REACHING NORTH FL BY SUNDAY MORNING.

OVERALL...CONDITIONS LOOK CLOUDY/DAMP BUT WARM. NOT A HUGE DIURNAL
RANGE GIVEN THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER. MAXES GENERALLY IN THE M-U70S
WITH LOWS IN THE U60S-L70S.

&&

.AVIATION...
CIGS WILL LOWER/THICKEN WITH MVFR CONDS DEVELOPING/SPREADING NWD
FROM SUA-VRB. EVENTUALLY EXPECT IFR TO LOW END MVFR CIGS
BKN-OVC007-015 BECOME PREVALENT STARTING IN THE 22Z-02Z TIME FRAME
AND PERSISTING THROUGH 12Z-14Z.

&&

.MARINE...
SFC ANALYSIS AND NOAA/SCRIPPS BUOY OBS SHOW SOLID SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS OCCURRING ON THE ATLC WATERS. SCRIPPS BUOY 6
MILES OFFSHORE FPR RECORDING 8 FT SEAS...9 FT AT BUOY 009 WITH 20-25
KNOTS. THIS IS LIKELY PRODUCING 5 TO 6 FT BREAKERS IN THE SURF
ZONE...ROUGH SURF AND HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS. MINOR BEACH EROSION
IS EXPECTED ESP DURING THE NEXT 2 HIGH TIDE CYCLES...EARLY THIS
EVENING AND AGAIN EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  73  69  81  68 /  50  60  60  40
MCO  76  67  83  68 /  50  60  60  40
MLB  76  73  82  70 /  50  50  50  30
VRB  77  74  82  70 /  50  50  50  30
LEE  75  66  83  68 /  50  60  60  40
SFB  75  67  83  67 /  50  60  60  40
ORL  76  68  83  68 /  50  60  60  40
FPR  78  74  82  70 /  50  50  40  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO JUPITER INLET OUT TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

KELLY/SEDLOCK









000
FXUS62 KMLB 221547 AAA
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1045 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...

...ROUGH BOATING/SURF CONDITIONS WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED TO CURRENT FORECAST. MULTILAYERED
CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA WITH LOWERING CLOUD CEILINGS
THRU TONIGHT. WARM AIR ADVECTION/UPGLIDE PRODUCING (MID LEVEL)
ALTOCUMULUS WHILE STRONG EAST FLOW IS BRINGING WIDESPREAD STRATOCU
ONSHORE AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE TREASURE COAST.

(MODIFIED) THE LARGE SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTH WILL SHIFT EAST AND
OFFSHORE INTO THE ATLC OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS AS THE BASE OF A MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH UPSTREAM MOVES OVER THE NERN GOMEX/GULF
COAST...WITH SOME MID LEVEL VORTICITY REACHING THE BIG BEND AREA.
COMBINATION OF THESE TWO FEATURES WILL CAUSE GRADUAL VEERING OF
WINDS IN THE SFC-H85 FROM ENE-E TO SE AND S...WITH BACKING OF THE
H70-H50 FLOW FROM WSW TO SW. THIS WILL CAUSE THE OLD BOUNDARY TO
LIFT BACK NWD AS A WARM FRONT....ADVECTING THE HIGHER MEAN PWAT AIR
MASS LURKING TO OUR SOUTH BACK NWD ACROSS OUR AREA. AREAS OF LIGHT
RAIN WILL CONTINUE...WITH EMBEDDED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS IN
BANDED MARINE ACTIVITY ALONG THE SPACE/TREASURE COASTS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. BEST LIFT AND BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL LIFT
NWD WITH THE FRONT...REACHING NORTH FL BY SUNDAY MORNING.

OVERALL...CONDITIONS LOOK CLOUDY/DAMP BUT WARM. NOT A HUGE DIURNAL
RANGE GIVEN THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER. MAXES GENERALLY IN THE M-U70S
WITH LOWS IN THE U60S-L70S.

&&

.AVIATION...
CIGS WILL LOWER/THICKEN WITH MVFR CONDS DEVELOPING/SPREADING NWD
FROM SUA-VRB. EVENTUALLY EXPECT IFR TO LOW END MVFR CIGS
BKN-OVC007-015 BECOME PREVALENT STARTING IN THE 22Z-02Z TIME FRAME
AND PERSISTING THROUGH 12Z-14Z.

&&

.MARINE...
SFC ANALYSIS AND NOAA/SCRIPPS BUOY OBS SHOW SOLID SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS OCCURRING ON THE ATLC WATERS. SCRIPPS BUOY 6
MILES OFFSHORE FPR RECORDING 8 FT SEAS...9 FT AT BUOY 009 WITH 20-25
KNOTS. THIS IS LIKELY PRODUCING 5 TO 6 FT BREAKERS IN THE SURF
ZONE...ROUGH SURF AND HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS. MINOR BEACH EROSION
IS EXPECTED ESP DURING THE NEXT 2 HIGH TIDE CYCLES...EARLY THIS
EVENING AND AGAIN EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  73  69  81  68 /  50  60  60  40
MCO  76  67  83  68 /  50  60  60  40
MLB  76  73  82  70 /  50  50  50  30
VRB  77  74  82  70 /  50  50  50  30
LEE  75  66  83  68 /  50  60  60  40
SFB  75  67  83  67 /  50  60  60  40
ORL  76  68  83  68 /  50  60  60  40
FPR  78  74  82  70 /  50  50  40  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO JUPITER INLET OUT TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

KELLY/SEDLOCK








000
FXUS62 KMLB 221547 AAA
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1045 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...

...ROUGH BOATING/SURF CONDITIONS WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED TO CURRENT FORECAST. MULTILAYERED
CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA WITH LOWERING CLOUD CEILINGS
THRU TONIGHT. WARM AIR ADVECTION/UPGLIDE PRODUCING (MID LEVEL)
ALTOCUMULUS WHILE STRONG EAST FLOW IS BRINGING WIDESPREAD STRATOCU
ONSHORE AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE TREASURE COAST.

(MODIFIED) THE LARGE SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTH WILL SHIFT EAST AND
OFFSHORE INTO THE ATLC OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS AS THE BASE OF A MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH UPSTREAM MOVES OVER THE NERN GOMEX/GULF
COAST...WITH SOME MID LEVEL VORTICITY REACHING THE BIG BEND AREA.
COMBINATION OF THESE TWO FEATURES WILL CAUSE GRADUAL VEERING OF
WINDS IN THE SFC-H85 FROM ENE-E TO SE AND S...WITH BACKING OF THE
H70-H50 FLOW FROM WSW TO SW. THIS WILL CAUSE THE OLD BOUNDARY TO
LIFT BACK NWD AS A WARM FRONT....ADVECTING THE HIGHER MEAN PWAT AIR
MASS LURKING TO OUR SOUTH BACK NWD ACROSS OUR AREA. AREAS OF LIGHT
RAIN WILL CONTINUE...WITH EMBEDDED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS IN
BANDED MARINE ACTIVITY ALONG THE SPACE/TREASURE COASTS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. BEST LIFT AND BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL LIFT
NWD WITH THE FRONT...REACHING NORTH FL BY SUNDAY MORNING.

OVERALL...CONDITIONS LOOK CLOUDY/DAMP BUT WARM. NOT A HUGE DIURNAL
RANGE GIVEN THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER. MAXES GENERALLY IN THE M-U70S
WITH LOWS IN THE U60S-L70S.

&&

.AVIATION...
CIGS WILL LOWER/THICKEN WITH MVFR CONDS DEVELOPING/SPREADING NWD
FROM SUA-VRB. EVENTUALLY EXPECT IFR TO LOW END MVFR CIGS
BKN-OVC007-015 BECOME PREVALENT STARTING IN THE 22Z-02Z TIME FRAME
AND PERSISTING THROUGH 12Z-14Z.

&&

.MARINE...
SFC ANALYSIS AND NOAA/SCRIPPS BUOY OBS SHOW SOLID SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS OCCURRING ON THE ATLC WATERS. SCRIPPS BUOY 6
MILES OFFSHORE FPR RECORDING 8 FT SEAS...9 FT AT BUOY 009 WITH 20-25
KNOTS. THIS IS LIKELY PRODUCING 5 TO 6 FT BREAKERS IN THE SURF
ZONE...ROUGH SURF AND HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS. MINOR BEACH EROSION
IS EXPECTED ESP DURING THE NEXT 2 HIGH TIDE CYCLES...EARLY THIS
EVENING AND AGAIN EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  73  69  81  68 /  50  60  60  40
MCO  76  67  83  68 /  50  60  60  40
MLB  76  73  82  70 /  50  50  50  30
VRB  77  74  82  70 /  50  50  50  30
LEE  75  66  83  68 /  50  60  60  40
SFB  75  67  83  67 /  50  60  60  40
ORL  76  68  83  68 /  50  60  60  40
FPR  78  74  82  70 /  50  50  40  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO JUPITER INLET OUT TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

KELLY/SEDLOCK








000
FXUS62 KMLB 221547 AAA
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1045 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...

...ROUGH BOATING/SURF CONDITIONS WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED TO CURRENT FORECAST. MULTILAYERED
CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA WITH LOWERING CLOUD CEILINGS
THRU TONIGHT. WARM AIR ADVECTION/UPGLIDE PRODUCING (MID LEVEL)
ALTOCUMULUS WHILE STRONG EAST FLOW IS BRINGING WIDESPREAD STRATOCU
ONSHORE AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE TREASURE COAST.

(MODIFIED) THE LARGE SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTH WILL SHIFT EAST AND
OFFSHORE INTO THE ATLC OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS AS THE BASE OF A MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH UPSTREAM MOVES OVER THE NERN GOMEX/GULF
COAST...WITH SOME MID LEVEL VORTICITY REACHING THE BIG BEND AREA.
COMBINATION OF THESE TWO FEATURES WILL CAUSE GRADUAL VEERING OF
WINDS IN THE SFC-H85 FROM ENE-E TO SE AND S...WITH BACKING OF THE
H70-H50 FLOW FROM WSW TO SW. THIS WILL CAUSE THE OLD BOUNDARY TO
LIFT BACK NWD AS A WARM FRONT....ADVECTING THE HIGHER MEAN PWAT AIR
MASS LURKING TO OUR SOUTH BACK NWD ACROSS OUR AREA. AREAS OF LIGHT
RAIN WILL CONTINUE...WITH EMBEDDED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS IN
BANDED MARINE ACTIVITY ALONG THE SPACE/TREASURE COASTS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. BEST LIFT AND BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL LIFT
NWD WITH THE FRONT...REACHING NORTH FL BY SUNDAY MORNING.

OVERALL...CONDITIONS LOOK CLOUDY/DAMP BUT WARM. NOT A HUGE DIURNAL
RANGE GIVEN THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER. MAXES GENERALLY IN THE M-U70S
WITH LOWS IN THE U60S-L70S.

&&

.AVIATION...
CIGS WILL LOWER/THICKEN WITH MVFR CONDS DEVELOPING/SPREADING NWD
FROM SUA-VRB. EVENTUALLY EXPECT IFR TO LOW END MVFR CIGS
BKN-OVC007-015 BECOME PREVALENT STARTING IN THE 22Z-02Z TIME FRAME
AND PERSISTING THROUGH 12Z-14Z.

&&

.MARINE...
SFC ANALYSIS AND NOAA/SCRIPPS BUOY OBS SHOW SOLID SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS OCCURRING ON THE ATLC WATERS. SCRIPPS BUOY 6
MILES OFFSHORE FPR RECORDING 8 FT SEAS...9 FT AT BUOY 009 WITH 20-25
KNOTS. THIS IS LIKELY PRODUCING 5 TO 6 FT BREAKERS IN THE SURF
ZONE...ROUGH SURF AND HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS. MINOR BEACH EROSION
IS EXPECTED ESP DURING THE NEXT 2 HIGH TIDE CYCLES...EARLY THIS
EVENING AND AGAIN EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  73  69  81  68 /  50  60  60  40
MCO  76  67  83  68 /  50  60  60  40
MLB  76  73  82  70 /  50  50  50  30
VRB  77  74  82  70 /  50  50  50  30
LEE  75  66  83  68 /  50  60  60  40
SFB  75  67  83  67 /  50  60  60  40
ORL  76  68  83  68 /  50  60  60  40
FPR  78  74  82  70 /  50  50  40  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO JUPITER INLET OUT TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

KELLY/SEDLOCK









000
FXUS62 KMLB 220947
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
445 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...

...ROUGH BOATING/BEACH CONDITIONS WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES...

CURRENT...
LARGE/STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE MIDDLE ATLC
REGION CONTINUES TO PRODUCE STOUT ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS ECFL AND THE
ADJCT ATLC. OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS QSTNRY TO OUR SOUTH...OVER
THE FL STRAITS. A WEAK MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE GOMEX
ACROSS THE CTRL PENINSULA IS SLOWLY LIFTING NWD. RAOB/PROFILER DATA
SHOW SWRLY FLOW AOA 6-7KFT PRODUCING WAA/ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND
EXTENSIVE MID LEVEL CLOUDS...ALONG WITH PASSING SPRINKLES OF LIGHT
RAIN. THERE REMAINS SOME RESIDUAL DRY AIR ABOVE H60 AND BELOW H80...
WITH HIGH MEAN RH VALUES IN BETWEEN.

TODAY/TONIGHT...
THE LARGE SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTH WILL SHIFT EAST AND OFFSHORE
INTO THE ATLC OVER THE NEXT H24 AS THE BASE OF A MID LEVEL SHORT
WAVE TROUGH UPSTREAM MOVES OVER THE NERN GOMEX/GULF COAST...WITH
SOME MID LEVEL VORTICITY REACHING THE BIG BEND AREA. COMBINATION OF
THESE TWO FEATURES WILL CAUSE GRADUAL VEERING OF WINDS IN THE
SFC-H85 FROM ENE-E TO SE AND S...WITH BACKING OF THE H70-H50 FLOW
FROM WSW TO SW. THIS WILL CAUSE THE OLD BOUNDARY TO LIFT BACK NWD AS
A WARM FRONT....ADVECTING THE HIGHER MEAN PWAT AIR MASS LURKING TO
OUR SOUTH BACK NWD ACROSS OUR AREA. EXPECT ALREADY CLOUDY SKIES TO
REMAIN SO...THICKENING IN THE PROCESS. AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED MODERATE TO HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP...WITH SOME BANDED
MARINE ACTIVITY ALSO LIKELY TO FACTOR INTO THE SENSIBLE WX ALONG THE
SPACE/TREASURE COASTS BY THIS AFTERNOON. BEST LIFT AND BETTER RAIN
CHANCES WILL LIFT NWD WITH THE FRONT...REACHING NORTH FL BY SUNDAY
MORNING.

OVERALL...CONDITIONS LOOK CLOUDY/DAMP BUT WARM. NOT A HUGE DIURNAL
RANGE GIVEN THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER. MAXES GENERALLY IN THE M-U70S
WITH LOWS IN THE U60S-L70S.

SUN-MON...
AN UNSETTLED WX PD TO START THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE LARGE HI PRES
RIDGE BLANKETING THE ERN CONUS WILL PUSH INTO THE ATLC AS A DVLPG
STORM SYSTEM OVER THE PAC NW DRIFTS ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. THE
H30-H20 JET PATTERN OVER THE ERN PAC IS ALMOST PERFECTLY ZONAL...
WITH A 150KT MAX THAT WILL SERVE TO STRENGTHEN THE NEW SFC LOW AS IT
CROSSES THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. THE JET STREAK WILL AMPLIFY AS PUSHES
INTO THE PAC NW...BUT EXISTING ZONAL FLOW WILL PUSH THE STORM SYSTEM
TOO FAR TO THE EAST TOO QUICKLY FOR IT TO DROP MUCH BELOW THE NRN
PLAINS BEFORE IT GETS CAUGHT UP BY THE LIFTING SIDE OF THE UPR LVL
SHORT WAVE AND BOMBS OUT OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY DAYBREAK MON. BY
THEN...THE AFOREMENTIONED HI PRES RIDGE WILL HAVE ANCHORED ITSELF
OVER THE W ATLC...WHERE IT WILL DEFLECT THE STORM SYSTEM INTO ERN
CANADA BY DAYBREAK TUE. THE SRN EXTENT OF THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
WILL BE LEFT TO ITS OWN MOMENTUM FOR FORWARD PROGRESS...WHICH WILL
BE SLOW GIVEN THE POSITION OF THE ATLC RIDGE.

H100-H70 WINDS WILL VEER TO THE S/SW THRU THE DAY ON SUN AS THE
RIDGE BUILDS OFFSHORE...WHILE AN H85-H50 ANTICYCLONE OVER THE NRN
BAHAMAS WILL MAINTAIN AN EXISTING W/SW FLOW THRU THE MID LYRS. THIS
WILL RESULT IN STRONG LOW/MID LVL ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE PRESENCE OF
LOW LVL MOISTURE ADVECTION. MID LVL MOISTURE...HOWEVER...WILL BE ON
THE WANE AS LATEST RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS H85-H50 MEAN RH VALUES
DECREASING FROM 60-70PCT OVER CENTRAL/SOUTH FL...TO BLO 50PCT OVER
THE NW CARIB.

THE COMBINATION OF LOW LVL MOISTURE AND MID LVL DRY AIR WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT THRU MON...ESPECIALLY AS THE STORM SYSTEM
DVLPS AND TRIES TO CRANK A NEW COLD FRONT THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH.
HOWEVER...PROGRESS OF THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW AS THE ATLC RIDGE
BLOCKS ITS ADVANCE WHILE THE THE STORM SYSTEM LIFTS INTO CANADA AND
ABANDONS THE SRN EXTENT OF ITS TROF. A BRISK S/SW BREEZE WILL
PREVAIL THRU THE H100-H70...ADDING WARM AIR ADVECTION TO THE
PICTURE. ONE MAJOR FACTOR THAT WILL WORK AGAINST A STRONG/SVR WX
EVENT WILL BE THE THERMAL PROFILE. THE -10C H50 ISOTHERM IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED N OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR AND WILL ONLY LIFT FURTHER
NORTH IN THE FACE OF THE MID LVL SWRLY FLOW. H70-H50 LAPSE RATES
OVER THE CENTRAL GOMEX ARE RUNNING A RESPECTABLE 6.5-7.0C/KM...BUT A
PALTRY AOB 5C/KM THRU THE H85-H70 LYR.

WILL OPT FOR CHC/LIKELY SHRAS AND A SLGT CHC OF TSTMS ON SUN...
HIGHEST OVER THE NRN CWA DUE TO A DEEPER MOISTURE PROFILE. POPS
DECREASING TO CHC/SLGT CHC SUN NIGHT AS DRIER AIR AND THE LOSS OF
DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD CHOKE OFF MOST OF ANY STORM ACTIVITY. AS THE
FRONT STALLS OVER THE FL BIG BEND/ERN PANHANDLE...THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE WILL POOL TO THE N...WHILE MID/UPR LVL DEBRIS CLOUDS
DISTURB SFC HEATING/LOW LVL DESTABILIZATION. POPS WILL RANGE FROM
40PCT FROM SRN LAKE/ORANGE/NRN BREVARD NWD...TO 20PCT N/E FROM LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. SRLY FLOW WILL PUSH TEMPS WELL ABV AVG...MAXES INTO THE
L/M80S AND MIN IN THE M/U60S.

TUE-FRI...
WET WX PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THRU MID WEEK AS THE UPR LVL JET
PATTERN BECOMES HIGHLY AMPLIFIED ACRS THE CONUS. JET ENERGY OVER THE
W PAC IS PLENTIFUL WITH H25 WINDS ARND 150KTS ENCROACHING ON THE
OREGON COAST. AS THIS JET DIGS INTO THE NW CONUS AND ITS ENERGY IS
TRANSLATED DOWNSTREAM...THE LIFTING JET OVER THE ERN CONUS WILL
STRENGTHEN CONSIDERABLY...THE 00Z GFS MODEL SUGGESTING MAX SPEEDS
ARND 200KTS DVLPG OVER NEW ENGLAND LATE TUE NIGHT WITH THE 150KT
ISOTACH TRAILING INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. THE STRONG UPR LVL DIVERGENCE
GENERATED BY THIS JET WILL INDUCE A NEW AREA OF LOW PRESSURE N OF
THE BAHAMA BANK DAYBREAK WED ALONG OR JUST AHEAD OF THE STALLED
FRONTAL BNDRY.

AS THE LOW DLVPS AND LIFTS UP THE ERN SEABOARD...IT WILL DRAG THE
FRONT CLEAR OF THE STATE...ALLOWING A DRY WX PD TO PREVAIL THRU THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. THE 22/00Z ECMWF INDICATES THIS HAPPENING
BY 00Z THU...22/00Z GFS ABOUT 12HRS SLOWER. WITH THE FRONT SAGGING
INTO CENTRAL FL ON TUE...WILL NEED TO PAINT THE AREA WITH LKLY POPS.
POPS DIMINISHING FROM THE W ON WED BUT REMAINING BTWN 30-50PCT...
20-30PCT...LINGERING ALONG THE COAST/LAKE OKEECHOBEE THRU WED NIGHT.
DRY WX FCST THU-FRI.

TUE TEMPS WILL REFLECT THE POSITION OF THE FRONT...MAXES RANGING
FROM THE L70S N OF I-4 TO THE L80S E OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE...MINS FROM
THE L50S TO L60S RESPECTIVELY. COOL/DRY AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL DROP MAX TEMPS INTO THE 60S AREAWIDE ON WED...MINS INTO
THE L40S-L50S WED NIGHT. LITTLE TEMP CHANGE EXPECTED THRU FRI AS A
SLOW MOVING HI PRES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL MAINTAIN A STEADY N/NW
FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WITH CIGS OVC-BKN040-060 MLB-SUA AND OVC080-110 KTIX-KMCO NWD.
CIGS WILL LOWER/THICKEN WITH MVFR CONDS DEVELOPING/SPREADING NWD
FROM SUA-FPR. EVENTUALLY EXPECT TO SEE SOME IFR TO LOW END MVFR CIGS
BKN-OVC007-015 BECOME PREVALENT STARTING IN THE 22Z-02Z TIME FRAME.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY/TONIGHT...THE STRONG HIGH TO THE NORTH WILL MAINTAIN THE TIGHT
LOCAL PGRAD WITH WINDS 20-25KT AND SEAS ALREADY A SOLID 7-9FT ACROSS
THE ENTIRETY OF THE MAOR. WNAWAVE GUIDANCE IS UNDERDOING CURRENT
CONDITIONS BY A GOOD 1-2FT...AND THE NWPS LOOKS MUCH CLOSER TO
REALITY. SEAS UP TO 8FT NEAR SHORE AND 10FT OFFSHORE. HEIGHT OF THE
BREAKERS IN THE SURF ZONE LOOK TO BE A LITTLE SHORT OF HIGH SURF ADV
CRITERIA...NEVERTHELESS LARGE BREAKING WAVES/HIGH SEAS WILL PRODUCE
VERY HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT...AND DANGEROUS SWIMMING/
SURF FOR BEACH GOERS...WITH NUMEROUS STRONG RIPS AND POSSIBLE MINOR
EROSION AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIMES.

SUN-MON...UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS TO START THE WEEK AS A MODERATE TO
FRESH S/SE BREEZE CONTINUES THRU THE DAY ON SUN...SEAS 5-7FT
NEARSHORE AND 8-10FT OFFSHORE. SFC/BNDRY LYR WINDS BCMG GENTLE TO
MODERATE S/SW ON MON AS A COLD FRONT STALLS OVER THE FL PANHANDLE...
SEAS SUBSIDING TO 3-4FT NEARSHORE AND 5-7FT OFFSHORE.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...COLD FRONT WILL SAG INTO CENTRAL FL...RESULTING IN
VRBL WINDS ACRS THE LCL ATLC...S/SE 10-15KTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...
N/NW 5-10KTS BEHIND IT. WINDS WILL FRESHEN OUT OF THE N/NW AFT
SUNSET AS A WEAK LOW PRES SYSTEM DVLPS N OF THE BAHAMAS...MODERATE
TO FRESH N OF SEBASTIAN INLET...GENTLE TO MODERATE S OF THE INLET.
SEAS 3-5FT N OF THE INLET AND 2-4FT S OF THE INLET THRU THE
DAY...BUILDING TO 5-7FT N OF THE INLET AND 3-5FT S OF THE INLET AFT
SUNSET.

WED-WED NIGHT...FRESH TO STRONG NW BREEZE WILL DVLP SHORTLY AFT
SUNRISE AS THE LOW PRES SYSTEM LIFTS N AND DRAGS THE COLD FRONT THRU
THE ATLC WATERS. SEAS BUILDING TO 6-8FT NEARSHORE AND 7-9FT OFFSHORE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  73  69  81  68 /  50  60  60  40
MCO  76  67  83  68 /  50  60  60  40
MLB  76  73  82  70 /  50  50  50  30
VRB  77  74  82  70 /  50  50  50  30
LEE  75  66  83  68 /  50  60  60  40
SFB  75  67  83  67 /  50  60  60  40
ORL  76  68  83  68 /  50  60  60  40
FPR  78  74  82  70 /  50  50  40  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE OUT 20 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20
     NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
     SEBASTIAN INLET OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO
     VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS
     FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
     WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET
     20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...CRISTALDI
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...BRAGAW






000
FXUS62 KMLB 220947
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
445 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...

...ROUGH BOATING/BEACH CONDITIONS WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES...

CURRENT...
LARGE/STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE MIDDLE ATLC
REGION CONTINUES TO PRODUCE STOUT ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS ECFL AND THE
ADJCT ATLC. OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS QSTNRY TO OUR SOUTH...OVER
THE FL STRAITS. A WEAK MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE GOMEX
ACROSS THE CTRL PENINSULA IS SLOWLY LIFTING NWD. RAOB/PROFILER DATA
SHOW SWRLY FLOW AOA 6-7KFT PRODUCING WAA/ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND
EXTENSIVE MID LEVEL CLOUDS...ALONG WITH PASSING SPRINKLES OF LIGHT
RAIN. THERE REMAINS SOME RESIDUAL DRY AIR ABOVE H60 AND BELOW H80...
WITH HIGH MEAN RH VALUES IN BETWEEN.

TODAY/TONIGHT...
THE LARGE SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTH WILL SHIFT EAST AND OFFSHORE
INTO THE ATLC OVER THE NEXT H24 AS THE BASE OF A MID LEVEL SHORT
WAVE TROUGH UPSTREAM MOVES OVER THE NERN GOMEX/GULF COAST...WITH
SOME MID LEVEL VORTICITY REACHING THE BIG BEND AREA. COMBINATION OF
THESE TWO FEATURES WILL CAUSE GRADUAL VEERING OF WINDS IN THE
SFC-H85 FROM ENE-E TO SE AND S...WITH BACKING OF THE H70-H50 FLOW
FROM WSW TO SW. THIS WILL CAUSE THE OLD BOUNDARY TO LIFT BACK NWD AS
A WARM FRONT....ADVECTING THE HIGHER MEAN PWAT AIR MASS LURKING TO
OUR SOUTH BACK NWD ACROSS OUR AREA. EXPECT ALREADY CLOUDY SKIES TO
REMAIN SO...THICKENING IN THE PROCESS. AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED MODERATE TO HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP...WITH SOME BANDED
MARINE ACTIVITY ALSO LIKELY TO FACTOR INTO THE SENSIBLE WX ALONG THE
SPACE/TREASURE COASTS BY THIS AFTERNOON. BEST LIFT AND BETTER RAIN
CHANCES WILL LIFT NWD WITH THE FRONT...REACHING NORTH FL BY SUNDAY
MORNING.

OVERALL...CONDITIONS LOOK CLOUDY/DAMP BUT WARM. NOT A HUGE DIURNAL
RANGE GIVEN THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER. MAXES GENERALLY IN THE M-U70S
WITH LOWS IN THE U60S-L70S.

SUN-MON...
AN UNSETTLED WX PD TO START THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE LARGE HI PRES
RIDGE BLANKETING THE ERN CONUS WILL PUSH INTO THE ATLC AS A DVLPG
STORM SYSTEM OVER THE PAC NW DRIFTS ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. THE
H30-H20 JET PATTERN OVER THE ERN PAC IS ALMOST PERFECTLY ZONAL...
WITH A 150KT MAX THAT WILL SERVE TO STRENGTHEN THE NEW SFC LOW AS IT
CROSSES THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. THE JET STREAK WILL AMPLIFY AS PUSHES
INTO THE PAC NW...BUT EXISTING ZONAL FLOW WILL PUSH THE STORM SYSTEM
TOO FAR TO THE EAST TOO QUICKLY FOR IT TO DROP MUCH BELOW THE NRN
PLAINS BEFORE IT GETS CAUGHT UP BY THE LIFTING SIDE OF THE UPR LVL
SHORT WAVE AND BOMBS OUT OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY DAYBREAK MON. BY
THEN...THE AFOREMENTIONED HI PRES RIDGE WILL HAVE ANCHORED ITSELF
OVER THE W ATLC...WHERE IT WILL DEFLECT THE STORM SYSTEM INTO ERN
CANADA BY DAYBREAK TUE. THE SRN EXTENT OF THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
WILL BE LEFT TO ITS OWN MOMENTUM FOR FORWARD PROGRESS...WHICH WILL
BE SLOW GIVEN THE POSITION OF THE ATLC RIDGE.

H100-H70 WINDS WILL VEER TO THE S/SW THRU THE DAY ON SUN AS THE
RIDGE BUILDS OFFSHORE...WHILE AN H85-H50 ANTICYCLONE OVER THE NRN
BAHAMAS WILL MAINTAIN AN EXISTING W/SW FLOW THRU THE MID LYRS. THIS
WILL RESULT IN STRONG LOW/MID LVL ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE PRESENCE OF
LOW LVL MOISTURE ADVECTION. MID LVL MOISTURE...HOWEVER...WILL BE ON
THE WANE AS LATEST RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS H85-H50 MEAN RH VALUES
DECREASING FROM 60-70PCT OVER CENTRAL/SOUTH FL...TO BLO 50PCT OVER
THE NW CARIB.

THE COMBINATION OF LOW LVL MOISTURE AND MID LVL DRY AIR WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT THRU MON...ESPECIALLY AS THE STORM SYSTEM
DVLPS AND TRIES TO CRANK A NEW COLD FRONT THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH.
HOWEVER...PROGRESS OF THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW AS THE ATLC RIDGE
BLOCKS ITS ADVANCE WHILE THE THE STORM SYSTEM LIFTS INTO CANADA AND
ABANDONS THE SRN EXTENT OF ITS TROF. A BRISK S/SW BREEZE WILL
PREVAIL THRU THE H100-H70...ADDING WARM AIR ADVECTION TO THE
PICTURE. ONE MAJOR FACTOR THAT WILL WORK AGAINST A STRONG/SVR WX
EVENT WILL BE THE THERMAL PROFILE. THE -10C H50 ISOTHERM IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED N OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR AND WILL ONLY LIFT FURTHER
NORTH IN THE FACE OF THE MID LVL SWRLY FLOW. H70-H50 LAPSE RATES
OVER THE CENTRAL GOMEX ARE RUNNING A RESPECTABLE 6.5-7.0C/KM...BUT A
PALTRY AOB 5C/KM THRU THE H85-H70 LYR.

WILL OPT FOR CHC/LIKELY SHRAS AND A SLGT CHC OF TSTMS ON SUN...
HIGHEST OVER THE NRN CWA DUE TO A DEEPER MOISTURE PROFILE. POPS
DECREASING TO CHC/SLGT CHC SUN NIGHT AS DRIER AIR AND THE LOSS OF
DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD CHOKE OFF MOST OF ANY STORM ACTIVITY. AS THE
FRONT STALLS OVER THE FL BIG BEND/ERN PANHANDLE...THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE WILL POOL TO THE N...WHILE MID/UPR LVL DEBRIS CLOUDS
DISTURB SFC HEATING/LOW LVL DESTABILIZATION. POPS WILL RANGE FROM
40PCT FROM SRN LAKE/ORANGE/NRN BREVARD NWD...TO 20PCT N/E FROM LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. SRLY FLOW WILL PUSH TEMPS WELL ABV AVG...MAXES INTO THE
L/M80S AND MIN IN THE M/U60S.

TUE-FRI...
WET WX PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THRU MID WEEK AS THE UPR LVL JET
PATTERN BECOMES HIGHLY AMPLIFIED ACRS THE CONUS. JET ENERGY OVER THE
W PAC IS PLENTIFUL WITH H25 WINDS ARND 150KTS ENCROACHING ON THE
OREGON COAST. AS THIS JET DIGS INTO THE NW CONUS AND ITS ENERGY IS
TRANSLATED DOWNSTREAM...THE LIFTING JET OVER THE ERN CONUS WILL
STRENGTHEN CONSIDERABLY...THE 00Z GFS MODEL SUGGESTING MAX SPEEDS
ARND 200KTS DVLPG OVER NEW ENGLAND LATE TUE NIGHT WITH THE 150KT
ISOTACH TRAILING INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. THE STRONG UPR LVL DIVERGENCE
GENERATED BY THIS JET WILL INDUCE A NEW AREA OF LOW PRESSURE N OF
THE BAHAMA BANK DAYBREAK WED ALONG OR JUST AHEAD OF THE STALLED
FRONTAL BNDRY.

AS THE LOW DLVPS AND LIFTS UP THE ERN SEABOARD...IT WILL DRAG THE
FRONT CLEAR OF THE STATE...ALLOWING A DRY WX PD TO PREVAIL THRU THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. THE 22/00Z ECMWF INDICATES THIS HAPPENING
BY 00Z THU...22/00Z GFS ABOUT 12HRS SLOWER. WITH THE FRONT SAGGING
INTO CENTRAL FL ON TUE...WILL NEED TO PAINT THE AREA WITH LKLY POPS.
POPS DIMINISHING FROM THE W ON WED BUT REMAINING BTWN 30-50PCT...
20-30PCT...LINGERING ALONG THE COAST/LAKE OKEECHOBEE THRU WED NIGHT.
DRY WX FCST THU-FRI.

TUE TEMPS WILL REFLECT THE POSITION OF THE FRONT...MAXES RANGING
FROM THE L70S N OF I-4 TO THE L80S E OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE...MINS FROM
THE L50S TO L60S RESPECTIVELY. COOL/DRY AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL DROP MAX TEMPS INTO THE 60S AREAWIDE ON WED...MINS INTO
THE L40S-L50S WED NIGHT. LITTLE TEMP CHANGE EXPECTED THRU FRI AS A
SLOW MOVING HI PRES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL MAINTAIN A STEADY N/NW
FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WITH CIGS OVC-BKN040-060 MLB-SUA AND OVC080-110 KTIX-KMCO NWD.
CIGS WILL LOWER/THICKEN WITH MVFR CONDS DEVELOPING/SPREADING NWD
FROM SUA-FPR. EVENTUALLY EXPECT TO SEE SOME IFR TO LOW END MVFR CIGS
BKN-OVC007-015 BECOME PREVALENT STARTING IN THE 22Z-02Z TIME FRAME.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY/TONIGHT...THE STRONG HIGH TO THE NORTH WILL MAINTAIN THE TIGHT
LOCAL PGRAD WITH WINDS 20-25KT AND SEAS ALREADY A SOLID 7-9FT ACROSS
THE ENTIRETY OF THE MAOR. WNAWAVE GUIDANCE IS UNDERDOING CURRENT
CONDITIONS BY A GOOD 1-2FT...AND THE NWPS LOOKS MUCH CLOSER TO
REALITY. SEAS UP TO 8FT NEAR SHORE AND 10FT OFFSHORE. HEIGHT OF THE
BREAKERS IN THE SURF ZONE LOOK TO BE A LITTLE SHORT OF HIGH SURF ADV
CRITERIA...NEVERTHELESS LARGE BREAKING WAVES/HIGH SEAS WILL PRODUCE
VERY HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT...AND DANGEROUS SWIMMING/
SURF FOR BEACH GOERS...WITH NUMEROUS STRONG RIPS AND POSSIBLE MINOR
EROSION AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIMES.

SUN-MON...UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS TO START THE WEEK AS A MODERATE TO
FRESH S/SE BREEZE CONTINUES THRU THE DAY ON SUN...SEAS 5-7FT
NEARSHORE AND 8-10FT OFFSHORE. SFC/BNDRY LYR WINDS BCMG GENTLE TO
MODERATE S/SW ON MON AS A COLD FRONT STALLS OVER THE FL PANHANDLE...
SEAS SUBSIDING TO 3-4FT NEARSHORE AND 5-7FT OFFSHORE.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...COLD FRONT WILL SAG INTO CENTRAL FL...RESULTING IN
VRBL WINDS ACRS THE LCL ATLC...S/SE 10-15KTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...
N/NW 5-10KTS BEHIND IT. WINDS WILL FRESHEN OUT OF THE N/NW AFT
SUNSET AS A WEAK LOW PRES SYSTEM DVLPS N OF THE BAHAMAS...MODERATE
TO FRESH N OF SEBASTIAN INLET...GENTLE TO MODERATE S OF THE INLET.
SEAS 3-5FT N OF THE INLET AND 2-4FT S OF THE INLET THRU THE
DAY...BUILDING TO 5-7FT N OF THE INLET AND 3-5FT S OF THE INLET AFT
SUNSET.

WED-WED NIGHT...FRESH TO STRONG NW BREEZE WILL DVLP SHORTLY AFT
SUNRISE AS THE LOW PRES SYSTEM LIFTS N AND DRAGS THE COLD FRONT THRU
THE ATLC WATERS. SEAS BUILDING TO 6-8FT NEARSHORE AND 7-9FT OFFSHORE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  73  69  81  68 /  50  60  60  40
MCO  76  67  83  68 /  50  60  60  40
MLB  76  73  82  70 /  50  50  50  30
VRB  77  74  82  70 /  50  50  50  30
LEE  75  66  83  68 /  50  60  60  40
SFB  75  67  83  67 /  50  60  60  40
ORL  76  68  83  68 /  50  60  60  40
FPR  78  74  82  70 /  50  50  40  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE OUT 20 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20
     NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
     SEBASTIAN INLET OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO
     VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS
     FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
     WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET
     20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...CRISTALDI
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...BRAGAW







000
FXUS62 KMLB 220947
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
445 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...

...ROUGH BOATING/BEACH CONDITIONS WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES...

CURRENT...
LARGE/STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE MIDDLE ATLC
REGION CONTINUES TO PRODUCE STOUT ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS ECFL AND THE
ADJCT ATLC. OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS QSTNRY TO OUR SOUTH...OVER
THE FL STRAITS. A WEAK MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE GOMEX
ACROSS THE CTRL PENINSULA IS SLOWLY LIFTING NWD. RAOB/PROFILER DATA
SHOW SWRLY FLOW AOA 6-7KFT PRODUCING WAA/ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND
EXTENSIVE MID LEVEL CLOUDS...ALONG WITH PASSING SPRINKLES OF LIGHT
RAIN. THERE REMAINS SOME RESIDUAL DRY AIR ABOVE H60 AND BELOW H80...
WITH HIGH MEAN RH VALUES IN BETWEEN.

TODAY/TONIGHT...
THE LARGE SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTH WILL SHIFT EAST AND OFFSHORE
INTO THE ATLC OVER THE NEXT H24 AS THE BASE OF A MID LEVEL SHORT
WAVE TROUGH UPSTREAM MOVES OVER THE NERN GOMEX/GULF COAST...WITH
SOME MID LEVEL VORTICITY REACHING THE BIG BEND AREA. COMBINATION OF
THESE TWO FEATURES WILL CAUSE GRADUAL VEERING OF WINDS IN THE
SFC-H85 FROM ENE-E TO SE AND S...WITH BACKING OF THE H70-H50 FLOW
FROM WSW TO SW. THIS WILL CAUSE THE OLD BOUNDARY TO LIFT BACK NWD AS
A WARM FRONT....ADVECTING THE HIGHER MEAN PWAT AIR MASS LURKING TO
OUR SOUTH BACK NWD ACROSS OUR AREA. EXPECT ALREADY CLOUDY SKIES TO
REMAIN SO...THICKENING IN THE PROCESS. AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED MODERATE TO HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP...WITH SOME BANDED
MARINE ACTIVITY ALSO LIKELY TO FACTOR INTO THE SENSIBLE WX ALONG THE
SPACE/TREASURE COASTS BY THIS AFTERNOON. BEST LIFT AND BETTER RAIN
CHANCES WILL LIFT NWD WITH THE FRONT...REACHING NORTH FL BY SUNDAY
MORNING.

OVERALL...CONDITIONS LOOK CLOUDY/DAMP BUT WARM. NOT A HUGE DIURNAL
RANGE GIVEN THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER. MAXES GENERALLY IN THE M-U70S
WITH LOWS IN THE U60S-L70S.

SUN-MON...
AN UNSETTLED WX PD TO START THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE LARGE HI PRES
RIDGE BLANKETING THE ERN CONUS WILL PUSH INTO THE ATLC AS A DVLPG
STORM SYSTEM OVER THE PAC NW DRIFTS ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. THE
H30-H20 JET PATTERN OVER THE ERN PAC IS ALMOST PERFECTLY ZONAL...
WITH A 150KT MAX THAT WILL SERVE TO STRENGTHEN THE NEW SFC LOW AS IT
CROSSES THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. THE JET STREAK WILL AMPLIFY AS PUSHES
INTO THE PAC NW...BUT EXISTING ZONAL FLOW WILL PUSH THE STORM SYSTEM
TOO FAR TO THE EAST TOO QUICKLY FOR IT TO DROP MUCH BELOW THE NRN
PLAINS BEFORE IT GETS CAUGHT UP BY THE LIFTING SIDE OF THE UPR LVL
SHORT WAVE AND BOMBS OUT OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY DAYBREAK MON. BY
THEN...THE AFOREMENTIONED HI PRES RIDGE WILL HAVE ANCHORED ITSELF
OVER THE W ATLC...WHERE IT WILL DEFLECT THE STORM SYSTEM INTO ERN
CANADA BY DAYBREAK TUE. THE SRN EXTENT OF THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
WILL BE LEFT TO ITS OWN MOMENTUM FOR FORWARD PROGRESS...WHICH WILL
BE SLOW GIVEN THE POSITION OF THE ATLC RIDGE.

H100-H70 WINDS WILL VEER TO THE S/SW THRU THE DAY ON SUN AS THE
RIDGE BUILDS OFFSHORE...WHILE AN H85-H50 ANTICYCLONE OVER THE NRN
BAHAMAS WILL MAINTAIN AN EXISTING W/SW FLOW THRU THE MID LYRS. THIS
WILL RESULT IN STRONG LOW/MID LVL ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE PRESENCE OF
LOW LVL MOISTURE ADVECTION. MID LVL MOISTURE...HOWEVER...WILL BE ON
THE WANE AS LATEST RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS H85-H50 MEAN RH VALUES
DECREASING FROM 60-70PCT OVER CENTRAL/SOUTH FL...TO BLO 50PCT OVER
THE NW CARIB.

THE COMBINATION OF LOW LVL MOISTURE AND MID LVL DRY AIR WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT THRU MON...ESPECIALLY AS THE STORM SYSTEM
DVLPS AND TRIES TO CRANK A NEW COLD FRONT THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH.
HOWEVER...PROGRESS OF THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW AS THE ATLC RIDGE
BLOCKS ITS ADVANCE WHILE THE THE STORM SYSTEM LIFTS INTO CANADA AND
ABANDONS THE SRN EXTENT OF ITS TROF. A BRISK S/SW BREEZE WILL
PREVAIL THRU THE H100-H70...ADDING WARM AIR ADVECTION TO THE
PICTURE. ONE MAJOR FACTOR THAT WILL WORK AGAINST A STRONG/SVR WX
EVENT WILL BE THE THERMAL PROFILE. THE -10C H50 ISOTHERM IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED N OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR AND WILL ONLY LIFT FURTHER
NORTH IN THE FACE OF THE MID LVL SWRLY FLOW. H70-H50 LAPSE RATES
OVER THE CENTRAL GOMEX ARE RUNNING A RESPECTABLE 6.5-7.0C/KM...BUT A
PALTRY AOB 5C/KM THRU THE H85-H70 LYR.

WILL OPT FOR CHC/LIKELY SHRAS AND A SLGT CHC OF TSTMS ON SUN...
HIGHEST OVER THE NRN CWA DUE TO A DEEPER MOISTURE PROFILE. POPS
DECREASING TO CHC/SLGT CHC SUN NIGHT AS DRIER AIR AND THE LOSS OF
DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD CHOKE OFF MOST OF ANY STORM ACTIVITY. AS THE
FRONT STALLS OVER THE FL BIG BEND/ERN PANHANDLE...THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE WILL POOL TO THE N...WHILE MID/UPR LVL DEBRIS CLOUDS
DISTURB SFC HEATING/LOW LVL DESTABILIZATION. POPS WILL RANGE FROM
40PCT FROM SRN LAKE/ORANGE/NRN BREVARD NWD...TO 20PCT N/E FROM LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. SRLY FLOW WILL PUSH TEMPS WELL ABV AVG...MAXES INTO THE
L/M80S AND MIN IN THE M/U60S.

TUE-FRI...
WET WX PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THRU MID WEEK AS THE UPR LVL JET
PATTERN BECOMES HIGHLY AMPLIFIED ACRS THE CONUS. JET ENERGY OVER THE
W PAC IS PLENTIFUL WITH H25 WINDS ARND 150KTS ENCROACHING ON THE
OREGON COAST. AS THIS JET DIGS INTO THE NW CONUS AND ITS ENERGY IS
TRANSLATED DOWNSTREAM...THE LIFTING JET OVER THE ERN CONUS WILL
STRENGTHEN CONSIDERABLY...THE 00Z GFS MODEL SUGGESTING MAX SPEEDS
ARND 200KTS DVLPG OVER NEW ENGLAND LATE TUE NIGHT WITH THE 150KT
ISOTACH TRAILING INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. THE STRONG UPR LVL DIVERGENCE
GENERATED BY THIS JET WILL INDUCE A NEW AREA OF LOW PRESSURE N OF
THE BAHAMA BANK DAYBREAK WED ALONG OR JUST AHEAD OF THE STALLED
FRONTAL BNDRY.

AS THE LOW DLVPS AND LIFTS UP THE ERN SEABOARD...IT WILL DRAG THE
FRONT CLEAR OF THE STATE...ALLOWING A DRY WX PD TO PREVAIL THRU THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. THE 22/00Z ECMWF INDICATES THIS HAPPENING
BY 00Z THU...22/00Z GFS ABOUT 12HRS SLOWER. WITH THE FRONT SAGGING
INTO CENTRAL FL ON TUE...WILL NEED TO PAINT THE AREA WITH LKLY POPS.
POPS DIMINISHING FROM THE W ON WED BUT REMAINING BTWN 30-50PCT...
20-30PCT...LINGERING ALONG THE COAST/LAKE OKEECHOBEE THRU WED NIGHT.
DRY WX FCST THU-FRI.

TUE TEMPS WILL REFLECT THE POSITION OF THE FRONT...MAXES RANGING
FROM THE L70S N OF I-4 TO THE L80S E OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE...MINS FROM
THE L50S TO L60S RESPECTIVELY. COOL/DRY AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL DROP MAX TEMPS INTO THE 60S AREAWIDE ON WED...MINS INTO
THE L40S-L50S WED NIGHT. LITTLE TEMP CHANGE EXPECTED THRU FRI AS A
SLOW MOVING HI PRES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL MAINTAIN A STEADY N/NW
FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WITH CIGS OVC-BKN040-060 MLB-SUA AND OVC080-110 KTIX-KMCO NWD.
CIGS WILL LOWER/THICKEN WITH MVFR CONDS DEVELOPING/SPREADING NWD
FROM SUA-FPR. EVENTUALLY EXPECT TO SEE SOME IFR TO LOW END MVFR CIGS
BKN-OVC007-015 BECOME PREVALENT STARTING IN THE 22Z-02Z TIME FRAME.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY/TONIGHT...THE STRONG HIGH TO THE NORTH WILL MAINTAIN THE TIGHT
LOCAL PGRAD WITH WINDS 20-25KT AND SEAS ALREADY A SOLID 7-9FT ACROSS
THE ENTIRETY OF THE MAOR. WNAWAVE GUIDANCE IS UNDERDOING CURRENT
CONDITIONS BY A GOOD 1-2FT...AND THE NWPS LOOKS MUCH CLOSER TO
REALITY. SEAS UP TO 8FT NEAR SHORE AND 10FT OFFSHORE. HEIGHT OF THE
BREAKERS IN THE SURF ZONE LOOK TO BE A LITTLE SHORT OF HIGH SURF ADV
CRITERIA...NEVERTHELESS LARGE BREAKING WAVES/HIGH SEAS WILL PRODUCE
VERY HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT...AND DANGEROUS SWIMMING/
SURF FOR BEACH GOERS...WITH NUMEROUS STRONG RIPS AND POSSIBLE MINOR
EROSION AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIMES.

SUN-MON...UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS TO START THE WEEK AS A MODERATE TO
FRESH S/SE BREEZE CONTINUES THRU THE DAY ON SUN...SEAS 5-7FT
NEARSHORE AND 8-10FT OFFSHORE. SFC/BNDRY LYR WINDS BCMG GENTLE TO
MODERATE S/SW ON MON AS A COLD FRONT STALLS OVER THE FL PANHANDLE...
SEAS SUBSIDING TO 3-4FT NEARSHORE AND 5-7FT OFFSHORE.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...COLD FRONT WILL SAG INTO CENTRAL FL...RESULTING IN
VRBL WINDS ACRS THE LCL ATLC...S/SE 10-15KTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...
N/NW 5-10KTS BEHIND IT. WINDS WILL FRESHEN OUT OF THE N/NW AFT
SUNSET AS A WEAK LOW PRES SYSTEM DVLPS N OF THE BAHAMAS...MODERATE
TO FRESH N OF SEBASTIAN INLET...GENTLE TO MODERATE S OF THE INLET.
SEAS 3-5FT N OF THE INLET AND 2-4FT S OF THE INLET THRU THE
DAY...BUILDING TO 5-7FT N OF THE INLET AND 3-5FT S OF THE INLET AFT
SUNSET.

WED-WED NIGHT...FRESH TO STRONG NW BREEZE WILL DVLP SHORTLY AFT
SUNRISE AS THE LOW PRES SYSTEM LIFTS N AND DRAGS THE COLD FRONT THRU
THE ATLC WATERS. SEAS BUILDING TO 6-8FT NEARSHORE AND 7-9FT OFFSHORE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  73  69  81  68 /  50  60  60  40
MCO  76  67  83  68 /  50  60  60  40
MLB  76  73  82  70 /  50  50  50  30
VRB  77  74  82  70 /  50  50  50  30
LEE  75  66  83  68 /  50  60  60  40
SFB  75  67  83  67 /  50  60  60  40
ORL  76  68  83  68 /  50  60  60  40
FPR  78  74  82  70 /  50  50  40  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE OUT 20 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20
     NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
     SEBASTIAN INLET OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO
     VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS
     FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
     WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET
     20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...CRISTALDI
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...BRAGAW






000
FXUS62 KMLB 220947
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
445 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...

...ROUGH BOATING/BEACH CONDITIONS WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES...

CURRENT...
LARGE/STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE MIDDLE ATLC
REGION CONTINUES TO PRODUCE STOUT ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS ECFL AND THE
ADJCT ATLC. OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS QSTNRY TO OUR SOUTH...OVER
THE FL STRAITS. A WEAK MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE GOMEX
ACROSS THE CTRL PENINSULA IS SLOWLY LIFTING NWD. RAOB/PROFILER DATA
SHOW SWRLY FLOW AOA 6-7KFT PRODUCING WAA/ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND
EXTENSIVE MID LEVEL CLOUDS...ALONG WITH PASSING SPRINKLES OF LIGHT
RAIN. THERE REMAINS SOME RESIDUAL DRY AIR ABOVE H60 AND BELOW H80...
WITH HIGH MEAN RH VALUES IN BETWEEN.

TODAY/TONIGHT...
THE LARGE SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTH WILL SHIFT EAST AND OFFSHORE
INTO THE ATLC OVER THE NEXT H24 AS THE BASE OF A MID LEVEL SHORT
WAVE TROUGH UPSTREAM MOVES OVER THE NERN GOMEX/GULF COAST...WITH
SOME MID LEVEL VORTICITY REACHING THE BIG BEND AREA. COMBINATION OF
THESE TWO FEATURES WILL CAUSE GRADUAL VEERING OF WINDS IN THE
SFC-H85 FROM ENE-E TO SE AND S...WITH BACKING OF THE H70-H50 FLOW
FROM WSW TO SW. THIS WILL CAUSE THE OLD BOUNDARY TO LIFT BACK NWD AS
A WARM FRONT....ADVECTING THE HIGHER MEAN PWAT AIR MASS LURKING TO
OUR SOUTH BACK NWD ACROSS OUR AREA. EXPECT ALREADY CLOUDY SKIES TO
REMAIN SO...THICKENING IN THE PROCESS. AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED MODERATE TO HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP...WITH SOME BANDED
MARINE ACTIVITY ALSO LIKELY TO FACTOR INTO THE SENSIBLE WX ALONG THE
SPACE/TREASURE COASTS BY THIS AFTERNOON. BEST LIFT AND BETTER RAIN
CHANCES WILL LIFT NWD WITH THE FRONT...REACHING NORTH FL BY SUNDAY
MORNING.

OVERALL...CONDITIONS LOOK CLOUDY/DAMP BUT WARM. NOT A HUGE DIURNAL
RANGE GIVEN THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER. MAXES GENERALLY IN THE M-U70S
WITH LOWS IN THE U60S-L70S.

SUN-MON...
AN UNSETTLED WX PD TO START THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE LARGE HI PRES
RIDGE BLANKETING THE ERN CONUS WILL PUSH INTO THE ATLC AS A DVLPG
STORM SYSTEM OVER THE PAC NW DRIFTS ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. THE
H30-H20 JET PATTERN OVER THE ERN PAC IS ALMOST PERFECTLY ZONAL...
WITH A 150KT MAX THAT WILL SERVE TO STRENGTHEN THE NEW SFC LOW AS IT
CROSSES THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. THE JET STREAK WILL AMPLIFY AS PUSHES
INTO THE PAC NW...BUT EXISTING ZONAL FLOW WILL PUSH THE STORM SYSTEM
TOO FAR TO THE EAST TOO QUICKLY FOR IT TO DROP MUCH BELOW THE NRN
PLAINS BEFORE IT GETS CAUGHT UP BY THE LIFTING SIDE OF THE UPR LVL
SHORT WAVE AND BOMBS OUT OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY DAYBREAK MON. BY
THEN...THE AFOREMENTIONED HI PRES RIDGE WILL HAVE ANCHORED ITSELF
OVER THE W ATLC...WHERE IT WILL DEFLECT THE STORM SYSTEM INTO ERN
CANADA BY DAYBREAK TUE. THE SRN EXTENT OF THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
WILL BE LEFT TO ITS OWN MOMENTUM FOR FORWARD PROGRESS...WHICH WILL
BE SLOW GIVEN THE POSITION OF THE ATLC RIDGE.

H100-H70 WINDS WILL VEER TO THE S/SW THRU THE DAY ON SUN AS THE
RIDGE BUILDS OFFSHORE...WHILE AN H85-H50 ANTICYCLONE OVER THE NRN
BAHAMAS WILL MAINTAIN AN EXISTING W/SW FLOW THRU THE MID LYRS. THIS
WILL RESULT IN STRONG LOW/MID LVL ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE PRESENCE OF
LOW LVL MOISTURE ADVECTION. MID LVL MOISTURE...HOWEVER...WILL BE ON
THE WANE AS LATEST RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS H85-H50 MEAN RH VALUES
DECREASING FROM 60-70PCT OVER CENTRAL/SOUTH FL...TO BLO 50PCT OVER
THE NW CARIB.

THE COMBINATION OF LOW LVL MOISTURE AND MID LVL DRY AIR WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT THRU MON...ESPECIALLY AS THE STORM SYSTEM
DVLPS AND TRIES TO CRANK A NEW COLD FRONT THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH.
HOWEVER...PROGRESS OF THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW AS THE ATLC RIDGE
BLOCKS ITS ADVANCE WHILE THE THE STORM SYSTEM LIFTS INTO CANADA AND
ABANDONS THE SRN EXTENT OF ITS TROF. A BRISK S/SW BREEZE WILL
PREVAIL THRU THE H100-H70...ADDING WARM AIR ADVECTION TO THE
PICTURE. ONE MAJOR FACTOR THAT WILL WORK AGAINST A STRONG/SVR WX
EVENT WILL BE THE THERMAL PROFILE. THE -10C H50 ISOTHERM IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED N OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR AND WILL ONLY LIFT FURTHER
NORTH IN THE FACE OF THE MID LVL SWRLY FLOW. H70-H50 LAPSE RATES
OVER THE CENTRAL GOMEX ARE RUNNING A RESPECTABLE 6.5-7.0C/KM...BUT A
PALTRY AOB 5C/KM THRU THE H85-H70 LYR.

WILL OPT FOR CHC/LIKELY SHRAS AND A SLGT CHC OF TSTMS ON SUN...
HIGHEST OVER THE NRN CWA DUE TO A DEEPER MOISTURE PROFILE. POPS
DECREASING TO CHC/SLGT CHC SUN NIGHT AS DRIER AIR AND THE LOSS OF
DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD CHOKE OFF MOST OF ANY STORM ACTIVITY. AS THE
FRONT STALLS OVER THE FL BIG BEND/ERN PANHANDLE...THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE WILL POOL TO THE N...WHILE MID/UPR LVL DEBRIS CLOUDS
DISTURB SFC HEATING/LOW LVL DESTABILIZATION. POPS WILL RANGE FROM
40PCT FROM SRN LAKE/ORANGE/NRN BREVARD NWD...TO 20PCT N/E FROM LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. SRLY FLOW WILL PUSH TEMPS WELL ABV AVG...MAXES INTO THE
L/M80S AND MIN IN THE M/U60S.

TUE-FRI...
WET WX PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THRU MID WEEK AS THE UPR LVL JET
PATTERN BECOMES HIGHLY AMPLIFIED ACRS THE CONUS. JET ENERGY OVER THE
W PAC IS PLENTIFUL WITH H25 WINDS ARND 150KTS ENCROACHING ON THE
OREGON COAST. AS THIS JET DIGS INTO THE NW CONUS AND ITS ENERGY IS
TRANSLATED DOWNSTREAM...THE LIFTING JET OVER THE ERN CONUS WILL
STRENGTHEN CONSIDERABLY...THE 00Z GFS MODEL SUGGESTING MAX SPEEDS
ARND 200KTS DVLPG OVER NEW ENGLAND LATE TUE NIGHT WITH THE 150KT
ISOTACH TRAILING INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. THE STRONG UPR LVL DIVERGENCE
GENERATED BY THIS JET WILL INDUCE A NEW AREA OF LOW PRESSURE N OF
THE BAHAMA BANK DAYBREAK WED ALONG OR JUST AHEAD OF THE STALLED
FRONTAL BNDRY.

AS THE LOW DLVPS AND LIFTS UP THE ERN SEABOARD...IT WILL DRAG THE
FRONT CLEAR OF THE STATE...ALLOWING A DRY WX PD TO PREVAIL THRU THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. THE 22/00Z ECMWF INDICATES THIS HAPPENING
BY 00Z THU...22/00Z GFS ABOUT 12HRS SLOWER. WITH THE FRONT SAGGING
INTO CENTRAL FL ON TUE...WILL NEED TO PAINT THE AREA WITH LKLY POPS.
POPS DIMINISHING FROM THE W ON WED BUT REMAINING BTWN 30-50PCT...
20-30PCT...LINGERING ALONG THE COAST/LAKE OKEECHOBEE THRU WED NIGHT.
DRY WX FCST THU-FRI.

TUE TEMPS WILL REFLECT THE POSITION OF THE FRONT...MAXES RANGING
FROM THE L70S N OF I-4 TO THE L80S E OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE...MINS FROM
THE L50S TO L60S RESPECTIVELY. COOL/DRY AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL DROP MAX TEMPS INTO THE 60S AREAWIDE ON WED...MINS INTO
THE L40S-L50S WED NIGHT. LITTLE TEMP CHANGE EXPECTED THRU FRI AS A
SLOW MOVING HI PRES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL MAINTAIN A STEADY N/NW
FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WITH CIGS OVC-BKN040-060 MLB-SUA AND OVC080-110 KTIX-KMCO NWD.
CIGS WILL LOWER/THICKEN WITH MVFR CONDS DEVELOPING/SPREADING NWD
FROM SUA-FPR. EVENTUALLY EXPECT TO SEE SOME IFR TO LOW END MVFR CIGS
BKN-OVC007-015 BECOME PREVALENT STARTING IN THE 22Z-02Z TIME FRAME.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY/TONIGHT...THE STRONG HIGH TO THE NORTH WILL MAINTAIN THE TIGHT
LOCAL PGRAD WITH WINDS 20-25KT AND SEAS ALREADY A SOLID 7-9FT ACROSS
THE ENTIRETY OF THE MAOR. WNAWAVE GUIDANCE IS UNDERDOING CURRENT
CONDITIONS BY A GOOD 1-2FT...AND THE NWPS LOOKS MUCH CLOSER TO
REALITY. SEAS UP TO 8FT NEAR SHORE AND 10FT OFFSHORE. HEIGHT OF THE
BREAKERS IN THE SURF ZONE LOOK TO BE A LITTLE SHORT OF HIGH SURF ADV
CRITERIA...NEVERTHELESS LARGE BREAKING WAVES/HIGH SEAS WILL PRODUCE
VERY HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT...AND DANGEROUS SWIMMING/
SURF FOR BEACH GOERS...WITH NUMEROUS STRONG RIPS AND POSSIBLE MINOR
EROSION AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIMES.

SUN-MON...UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS TO START THE WEEK AS A MODERATE TO
FRESH S/SE BREEZE CONTINUES THRU THE DAY ON SUN...SEAS 5-7FT
NEARSHORE AND 8-10FT OFFSHORE. SFC/BNDRY LYR WINDS BCMG GENTLE TO
MODERATE S/SW ON MON AS A COLD FRONT STALLS OVER THE FL PANHANDLE...
SEAS SUBSIDING TO 3-4FT NEARSHORE AND 5-7FT OFFSHORE.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...COLD FRONT WILL SAG INTO CENTRAL FL...RESULTING IN
VRBL WINDS ACRS THE LCL ATLC...S/SE 10-15KTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...
N/NW 5-10KTS BEHIND IT. WINDS WILL FRESHEN OUT OF THE N/NW AFT
SUNSET AS A WEAK LOW PRES SYSTEM DVLPS N OF THE BAHAMAS...MODERATE
TO FRESH N OF SEBASTIAN INLET...GENTLE TO MODERATE S OF THE INLET.
SEAS 3-5FT N OF THE INLET AND 2-4FT S OF THE INLET THRU THE
DAY...BUILDING TO 5-7FT N OF THE INLET AND 3-5FT S OF THE INLET AFT
SUNSET.

WED-WED NIGHT...FRESH TO STRONG NW BREEZE WILL DVLP SHORTLY AFT
SUNRISE AS THE LOW PRES SYSTEM LIFTS N AND DRAGS THE COLD FRONT THRU
THE ATLC WATERS. SEAS BUILDING TO 6-8FT NEARSHORE AND 7-9FT OFFSHORE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  73  69  81  68 /  50  60  60  40
MCO  76  67  83  68 /  50  60  60  40
MLB  76  73  82  70 /  50  50  50  30
VRB  77  74  82  70 /  50  50  50  30
LEE  75  66  83  68 /  50  60  60  40
SFB  75  67  83  67 /  50  60  60  40
ORL  76  68  83  68 /  50  60  60  40
FPR  78  74  82  70 /  50  50  40  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE OUT 20 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20
     NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
     SEBASTIAN INLET OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO
     VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS
     FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
     WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET
     20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...CRISTALDI
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...BRAGAW







000
FXUS62 KMLB 220916
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
350 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...

...ROUGH BOATING/BEACH CONDITIONS WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES...

CURRENT...
LARGE/STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE MIDDLE ATLC
REGION CONTINUES TO PRODUCE STOUT ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS ECFL AND THE
ADJCT ATLC. OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS QSTNRY TO OUR SOUTH...OVER
THE FL STRAITS. A WEAK MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE GOMEX
ACROSS THE CTRL PENINSULA IS SLOWLY LIFTING NWD. RAOB/PROFILER DATA
SHOW SWRLY FLOW AOA 6-7KFT PRODUCING WAA/ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND
EXTENSIVE MID LEVEL CLOUDS...ALONG WITH PASSING SPRINKLES OF LIGHT
RAIN. THERE REMAINS SOME RESIDUAL DRY AIR ABOVE H60 AND BELOW H80...
WITH HIGH MEAN RH VALUES IN BETWEEN.

TODAY/TONIGHT...
THE LARGE SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTH WILL SHIFT EAST AND OFFSHORE
INTO THE ATLC OVER THE NEXT H24 AS THE BASE OF A MID LEVEL SHORT
WAVE TROUGH UPSTREAM MOVES OVER THE NERN GOMEX/GULF COAST...WITH
SOME MID LEVEL VORTICITY REACHING THE BIG BEND AREA. COMBINATION OF
THESE TWO FEATURES WILL CAUSE GRADUAL VEERING OF WINDS IN THE
SFC-H85 FROM ENE-E TO SE AND S...WITH BACKING OF THE H70-H50 FLOW
FROM WSW TO SW. THIS WILL CAUSE THE OLD BOUNDARY TO LIFT BACK NWD AS
A WARM FRONT....ADVECTING THE HIGHER MEAN PWAT AIR MASS LURKING TO
OUR SOUTH BACK NWD ACROSS OUR AREA. EXPECT ALREADY CLOUDY SKIES TO
REMAIN SO...THICKENING IN THE PROCESS. AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED MODERATE TO HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP...WITH SOME BANDED
MARINE ACTIVITY ALSO LIKELY TO FACTOR INTO THE SENSIBLE WX ALONG THE
SPACE/TREASURE COASTS BY THIS AFTERNOON. BEST LIFT AND BETTER RAIN
CHANCES WILL LIFT NWD WITH THE FRONT...REACHING NORTH FL BY SUNDAY
MORNING.

OVERALL...CONDITIONS LOOK CLOUDY/DAMP BUT WARM. NOT A HUGE DIURNAL
RANGE GIVEN THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER. MAXES GENERALLY IN THE M-U70S
WITH LOWS IN THE U60S-L70S.

SUN-MON...
AN UNSETTLED WX PD TO START THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE LARGE HI PRES
RIDGE BLANKETING THE ERN CONUS WILL PUSH INTO THE ATLC AS A DVLPG
STORM SYSTEM OVER THE PAC NW DRIFTS ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. THE
H30-H20 JET PATTERN OVER THE ERN PAC IS ALMOST PERFECTLY ZONAL...
WITH A 150KT MAX THAT WILL SERVE TO STRENGTHEN THE NEW SFC LOW AS IT
CROSSES THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. THE JET STREAK WILL AMPLIFY AS PUSHES
INTO THE PAC NW...BUT EXISTING ZONAL FLOW WILL PUSH THE STORM SYSTEM
TOO FAR TO THE EAST TOO QUICKLY FOR IT TO DROP MUCH BELOW THE NRN
PLAINS BEFORE IT GETS CAUGHT UP BY THE LIFTING SIDE OF THE UPR LVL
SHORT WAVE AND BOMBS OUT OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY DAYBREAK MON. BY
THEN...THE AFOREMENTIONED HI PRES RIDGE WILL HAVE ANCHORED ITSELF
OVER THE W ATLC...WHERE IT WILL DEFLECT THE STORM SYSTEM INTO ERN
CANADA BY DAYBREAK TUE. THE SRN EXTENT OF THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
WILL BE LEFT TO ITS OWN MOMENTUM FOR FORWARD PROGRESS...WHICH WILL
BE SLOW GIVEN THE POSITION OF THE ATLC RIDGE.

H100-H70 WINDS WILL VEER TO THE S/SW THRU THE DAY ON SUN AS THE
RIDGE BUILDS OFFSHORE...WHILE AN H85-H50 ANTICYCLONE OVER THE NRN
BAHAMAS WILL MAINTAIN AN EXISTING W/SW FLOW THRU THE MID LYRS. THIS
WILL RESULT IN STRONG LOW/MID LVL ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE PRESENCE OF
LOW LVL MOISTURE ADVECTION. MID LVL MOISTURE...HOWEVER...WILL BE ON
THE WANE AS LATEST RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS H85-H50 MEAN RH VALUES
DECREASING FROM 60-70PCT OVER CENTRAL/SOUTH FL...TO BLO 50PCT OVER
THE NW CARIB.

THE COMBINATION OF LOW LVL MOISTURE AND MID LVL DRY AIR WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT THRU MON...ESPECIALLY AS THE STORM SYSTEM
DVLPS AND TRIES TO CRANK A NEW COLD FRONT THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH.
HOWEVER...PROGRESS OF THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW AS THE ATLC RIDGE
BLOCKS ITS ADVANCE WHILE THE THE STORM SYSTEM LIFTS INTO CANADA AND
ABANDONS THE SRN EXTENT OF ITS TROF. A BRISK S/SW BREEZE WILL
PREVAIL THRU THE H100-H70...ADDING WARM AIR ADVECTION TO THE
PICTURE. ONE MAJOR FACTOR THAT WILL WORK AGAINST A STRONG/SVR WX
EVENT WILL BE THE THERMAL PROFILE. THE -10C H50 ISOTHERM IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED N OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR AND WILL ONLY LIFT FURTHER
NORTH IN THE FACE OF THE MID LVL SWRLY FLOW. H70-H50 LAPSE RATES
OVER THE CENTRAL GOMEX ARE RUNNING A RESPECTABLE 6.5-7.0C/KM...BUT A
PALTRY AOB 5C/KM THRU THE H85-H70 LYR.

WILL OPT FOR CHC/LIKELY SHRAS AND A SLGT CHC OF TSTMS ON SUN...
HIGHEST OVER THE NRN CWA DUE TO A DEEPER MOISTURE PROFILE. POPS
DECREASING TO CHC/SLGT CHC SUN NIGHT AS DRIER AIR AND THE LOSS OF
DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD CHOKE OFF MOST OF ANY STORM ACTIVITY. AS THE
FRONT STALLS OVER THE FL BIG BEND/ERN PANHANDLE...THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE WILL POOL TO THE N...WHILE MID/UPR LVL DEBRIS CLOUDS
DISTURB SFC HEATING/LOW LVL DESTABILIZATION. POPS WILL RANGE FROM
40PCT FROM SRN LAKE/ORANGE/NRN BREVARD NWD...TO 20PCT N/E FROM LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. SRLY FLOW WILL PUSH TEMPS WELL ABV AVG...MAXES INTO THE
L/M80S AND MIN IN THE M/U60S.

TUE-FRI...
UPDATE TO FOLLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WITH CIGS OVC-BKN040-060 MLB-SUA AND OVC080-110 KTIX-KMCO NWD.
CIGS WILL LOWER/THICKEN WITH MVFR CONDS DEVELOPING/SPREADING NWD
FROM SUA-FPR. EVENTUALLY EXPECT TO SEE SOME IFR TO LOW END MVFR CIGS
BKN-OVC007-015 BECOME PREVALENT STARTING IN THE 22Z-02Z TIME FRAME.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY/TONIGHT...THE STRONG HIGH TO THE NORTH WILL MAINTAIN THE TIGHT
LOCAL PGRAD WITH WINDS 20-25KT AND SEAS ALREADY A SOLID 7-9FT ACROSS
THE ENTIRETY OF THE MAOR. WNAWAVE GUIDANCE IS UNDERDOING CURRENT
CONDITIONS BY A GOOD 1-2FT...AND THE NWPS LOOKS MUCH CLOSER TO
REALITY. SEAS UP TO 8FT NEAR SHORE AND 10FT OFFSHORE. HEIGHT OF THE
BREAKERS IN THE SURF ZONE LOOK TO BE A LITTLE SHORT OF HIGH SURF ADV
CRITERIA...NEVERTHELESS LARGE BREAKING WAVES/HIGH SEAS WILL PRODUCE
VERY HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT...AND DANGEROUS SWIMMING/
SURF FOR BEACH GOERS...WITH NUMEROUS STRONG RIPS AND POSSIBLE MINOR
EROSION AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIMES.


SUN-MON...UNFAVORABLE CONDITION TO START THE WEEK AS A MODERATE TO
FRESH S/SE BREEZE CONTINUES THRU THE DAY ON SUN...SEAS 5-7FT
NEARSHORE AND 8-10FT OFFSHORE. SFC/BNDRY LYR WINDS BCMG GENTLE TO
MODERATE S/SW ON MON AS A COLD FRONT STALLS OVER THE FL PANHANDLE...
SEAS SUBSIDING TO 3-4FT NEARSHORE AND 5-7FT OFFSHORE.

TUE-WED...UPDATE TO FOLLOW.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  73  69  81  68 /  50  60  60  40
MCO  76  67  83  68 /  50  60  60  40
MLB  76  73  82  70 /  50  50  50  30
VRB  77  74  82  70 /  50  50  50  30
LEE  75  66  83  68 /  50  60  60  40
SFB  75  67  83  67 /  50  60  60  40
ORL  76  68  83  68 /  50  60  60  40
FPR  78  74  82  70 /  50  50  40  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE OUT 20 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20
     NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
     SEBASTIAN INLET OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO
     VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS
     FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
     WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET
     20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...CRISTALDI
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...BRAGAW








000
FXUS62 KMLB 220916
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
350 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...

...ROUGH BOATING/BEACH CONDITIONS WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES...

CURRENT...
LARGE/STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE MIDDLE ATLC
REGION CONTINUES TO PRODUCE STOUT ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS ECFL AND THE
ADJCT ATLC. OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS QSTNRY TO OUR SOUTH...OVER
THE FL STRAITS. A WEAK MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE GOMEX
ACROSS THE CTRL PENINSULA IS SLOWLY LIFTING NWD. RAOB/PROFILER DATA
SHOW SWRLY FLOW AOA 6-7KFT PRODUCING WAA/ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND
EXTENSIVE MID LEVEL CLOUDS...ALONG WITH PASSING SPRINKLES OF LIGHT
RAIN. THERE REMAINS SOME RESIDUAL DRY AIR ABOVE H60 AND BELOW H80...
WITH HIGH MEAN RH VALUES IN BETWEEN.

TODAY/TONIGHT...
THE LARGE SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTH WILL SHIFT EAST AND OFFSHORE
INTO THE ATLC OVER THE NEXT H24 AS THE BASE OF A MID LEVEL SHORT
WAVE TROUGH UPSTREAM MOVES OVER THE NERN GOMEX/GULF COAST...WITH
SOME MID LEVEL VORTICITY REACHING THE BIG BEND AREA. COMBINATION OF
THESE TWO FEATURES WILL CAUSE GRADUAL VEERING OF WINDS IN THE
SFC-H85 FROM ENE-E TO SE AND S...WITH BACKING OF THE H70-H50 FLOW
FROM WSW TO SW. THIS WILL CAUSE THE OLD BOUNDARY TO LIFT BACK NWD AS
A WARM FRONT....ADVECTING THE HIGHER MEAN PWAT AIR MASS LURKING TO
OUR SOUTH BACK NWD ACROSS OUR AREA. EXPECT ALREADY CLOUDY SKIES TO
REMAIN SO...THICKENING IN THE PROCESS. AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED MODERATE TO HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP...WITH SOME BANDED
MARINE ACTIVITY ALSO LIKELY TO FACTOR INTO THE SENSIBLE WX ALONG THE
SPACE/TREASURE COASTS BY THIS AFTERNOON. BEST LIFT AND BETTER RAIN
CHANCES WILL LIFT NWD WITH THE FRONT...REACHING NORTH FL BY SUNDAY
MORNING.

OVERALL...CONDITIONS LOOK CLOUDY/DAMP BUT WARM. NOT A HUGE DIURNAL
RANGE GIVEN THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER. MAXES GENERALLY IN THE M-U70S
WITH LOWS IN THE U60S-L70S.

SUN-MON...
AN UNSETTLED WX PD TO START THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE LARGE HI PRES
RIDGE BLANKETING THE ERN CONUS WILL PUSH INTO THE ATLC AS A DVLPG
STORM SYSTEM OVER THE PAC NW DRIFTS ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. THE
H30-H20 JET PATTERN OVER THE ERN PAC IS ALMOST PERFECTLY ZONAL...
WITH A 150KT MAX THAT WILL SERVE TO STRENGTHEN THE NEW SFC LOW AS IT
CROSSES THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. THE JET STREAK WILL AMPLIFY AS PUSHES
INTO THE PAC NW...BUT EXISTING ZONAL FLOW WILL PUSH THE STORM SYSTEM
TOO FAR TO THE EAST TOO QUICKLY FOR IT TO DROP MUCH BELOW THE NRN
PLAINS BEFORE IT GETS CAUGHT UP BY THE LIFTING SIDE OF THE UPR LVL
SHORT WAVE AND BOMBS OUT OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY DAYBREAK MON. BY
THEN...THE AFOREMENTIONED HI PRES RIDGE WILL HAVE ANCHORED ITSELF
OVER THE W ATLC...WHERE IT WILL DEFLECT THE STORM SYSTEM INTO ERN
CANADA BY DAYBREAK TUE. THE SRN EXTENT OF THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
WILL BE LEFT TO ITS OWN MOMENTUM FOR FORWARD PROGRESS...WHICH WILL
BE SLOW GIVEN THE POSITION OF THE ATLC RIDGE.

H100-H70 WINDS WILL VEER TO THE S/SW THRU THE DAY ON SUN AS THE
RIDGE BUILDS OFFSHORE...WHILE AN H85-H50 ANTICYCLONE OVER THE NRN
BAHAMAS WILL MAINTAIN AN EXISTING W/SW FLOW THRU THE MID LYRS. THIS
WILL RESULT IN STRONG LOW/MID LVL ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE PRESENCE OF
LOW LVL MOISTURE ADVECTION. MID LVL MOISTURE...HOWEVER...WILL BE ON
THE WANE AS LATEST RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS H85-H50 MEAN RH VALUES
DECREASING FROM 60-70PCT OVER CENTRAL/SOUTH FL...TO BLO 50PCT OVER
THE NW CARIB.

THE COMBINATION OF LOW LVL MOISTURE AND MID LVL DRY AIR WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT THRU MON...ESPECIALLY AS THE STORM SYSTEM
DVLPS AND TRIES TO CRANK A NEW COLD FRONT THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH.
HOWEVER...PROGRESS OF THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW AS THE ATLC RIDGE
BLOCKS ITS ADVANCE WHILE THE THE STORM SYSTEM LIFTS INTO CANADA AND
ABANDONS THE SRN EXTENT OF ITS TROF. A BRISK S/SW BREEZE WILL
PREVAIL THRU THE H100-H70...ADDING WARM AIR ADVECTION TO THE
PICTURE. ONE MAJOR FACTOR THAT WILL WORK AGAINST A STRONG/SVR WX
EVENT WILL BE THE THERMAL PROFILE. THE -10C H50 ISOTHERM IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED N OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR AND WILL ONLY LIFT FURTHER
NORTH IN THE FACE OF THE MID LVL SWRLY FLOW. H70-H50 LAPSE RATES
OVER THE CENTRAL GOMEX ARE RUNNING A RESPECTABLE 6.5-7.0C/KM...BUT A
PALTRY AOB 5C/KM THRU THE H85-H70 LYR.

WILL OPT FOR CHC/LIKELY SHRAS AND A SLGT CHC OF TSTMS ON SUN...
HIGHEST OVER THE NRN CWA DUE TO A DEEPER MOISTURE PROFILE. POPS
DECREASING TO CHC/SLGT CHC SUN NIGHT AS DRIER AIR AND THE LOSS OF
DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD CHOKE OFF MOST OF ANY STORM ACTIVITY. AS THE
FRONT STALLS OVER THE FL BIG BEND/ERN PANHANDLE...THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE WILL POOL TO THE N...WHILE MID/UPR LVL DEBRIS CLOUDS
DISTURB SFC HEATING/LOW LVL DESTABILIZATION. POPS WILL RANGE FROM
40PCT FROM SRN LAKE/ORANGE/NRN BREVARD NWD...TO 20PCT N/E FROM LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. SRLY FLOW WILL PUSH TEMPS WELL ABV AVG...MAXES INTO THE
L/M80S AND MIN IN THE M/U60S.

TUE-FRI...
UPDATE TO FOLLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WITH CIGS OVC-BKN040-060 MLB-SUA AND OVC080-110 KTIX-KMCO NWD.
CIGS WILL LOWER/THICKEN WITH MVFR CONDS DEVELOPING/SPREADING NWD
FROM SUA-FPR. EVENTUALLY EXPECT TO SEE SOME IFR TO LOW END MVFR CIGS
BKN-OVC007-015 BECOME PREVALENT STARTING IN THE 22Z-02Z TIME FRAME.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY/TONIGHT...THE STRONG HIGH TO THE NORTH WILL MAINTAIN THE TIGHT
LOCAL PGRAD WITH WINDS 20-25KT AND SEAS ALREADY A SOLID 7-9FT ACROSS
THE ENTIRETY OF THE MAOR. WNAWAVE GUIDANCE IS UNDERDOING CURRENT
CONDITIONS BY A GOOD 1-2FT...AND THE NWPS LOOKS MUCH CLOSER TO
REALITY. SEAS UP TO 8FT NEAR SHORE AND 10FT OFFSHORE. HEIGHT OF THE
BREAKERS IN THE SURF ZONE LOOK TO BE A LITTLE SHORT OF HIGH SURF ADV
CRITERIA...NEVERTHELESS LARGE BREAKING WAVES/HIGH SEAS WILL PRODUCE
VERY HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT...AND DANGEROUS SWIMMING/
SURF FOR BEACH GOERS...WITH NUMEROUS STRONG RIPS AND POSSIBLE MINOR
EROSION AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIMES.


SUN-MON...UNFAVORABLE CONDITION TO START THE WEEK AS A MODERATE TO
FRESH S/SE BREEZE CONTINUES THRU THE DAY ON SUN...SEAS 5-7FT
NEARSHORE AND 8-10FT OFFSHORE. SFC/BNDRY LYR WINDS BCMG GENTLE TO
MODERATE S/SW ON MON AS A COLD FRONT STALLS OVER THE FL PANHANDLE...
SEAS SUBSIDING TO 3-4FT NEARSHORE AND 5-7FT OFFSHORE.

TUE-WED...UPDATE TO FOLLOW.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  73  69  81  68 /  50  60  60  40
MCO  76  67  83  68 /  50  60  60  40
MLB  76  73  82  70 /  50  50  50  30
VRB  77  74  82  70 /  50  50  50  30
LEE  75  66  83  68 /  50  60  60  40
SFB  75  67  83  67 /  50  60  60  40
ORL  76  68  83  68 /  50  60  60  40
FPR  78  74  82  70 /  50  50  40  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE OUT 20 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20
     NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
     SEBASTIAN INLET OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO
     VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS
     FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
     WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET
     20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...CRISTALDI
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...BRAGAW









000
FXUS62 KMLB 220206
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
906 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT-SAT...A BRISK EAST WIND FLOW IS WELL ESTABLISHED AS A RATHER
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTER PUSHES TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST. MID
LEVEL DRY LAYER HAS BEEN MODIFYING FROM ISENTROPIC LIFT WHILE LOW
LEVELS WERE MOISTENING FROM THE ONSHORE FLOW.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW THAT A THIN DRY LAYER IN BETWEEN WILL MOISTEN OVERNIGHT.  THE
18Z GFS SHOWED PRECIPITABLE WATER ELEVATING TO ABOUT 1.5 INCHES IN
THE NORTH AND 1.75 INCHES IN THE SOUTH BY 12Z SAT.  NOT MUCH PRECIP
IS GENERATED...BUT EXPECT THAT THERE WILL BE SPRINKLES AND EVEN A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SHOWERS ENCROACHING UPON THE FAR NORTHERN
AREAS TOWARDS DAWN.  THEREFORE HAVE ALREADY BUMPED UP POPS TO 20
PERCENT NORTH AND 30 PERCENT IN THE SOUTH.

EVENTUALLY EXPECT SOME ATLANTIC CLOUD LINES TO SET UP IN THE SOUTH
AND BRING A NARROW BAND WITH MODERATE SHOWERS AND A FEW DOWNPOURS
INTO THE COAST.  TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY NOT CHANGE MUCH ALONG
THE COAST DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND ONSHORE WINDS.  MIGHT HAVE TO TWEAK
THE NORTH COAST MINS UP SLIGHTLY.  EVEN THE NORTH INTERIOR MINS ARE
PROBABLY GOING TO OCCUR BEFORE MIDNIGHT...THEN BECOME STEADY OR RISE
A FEW DEGREES.

SAT...CONTINUED MOISTENING IS INDICATED SO IT LOOKS LIKE A MOSTLY
CLOUDY DAY.  NUDGED MAX TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY AS A RESULT.  THE NEW
MOS THAT WILL BECOME AVAILABLE IN THE NEXT MONTH OR TWO IS RUNNING
AT OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW THE OPERATIONAL MOS.

A SMALL DRY LAYER ALOFT IS FORECAST TO HANG ON AND THERE ARE NO
APPARENT IMPULSES ALOFT...SO PRECIP AMOUNTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE
LIGHT.  THE 18Z GFS MOS POPS JUMPED ABOUT 20-30 PERCENT TO 50-60
PERCENT AREAWIDE...BUT WILL NOT GO NEARLY THAT HIGH YET...OPTING TO
GO WITH 30 PERCENT IN THE NORTH AND 50 PERCENT IN THE SOUTHEAST.
THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR DOWNPOURS SHOULD BE ALONG THE TREASURE COAST
WHERE THE BRISK WINDS OFF THE BAHAMAS SHOULD PRODUCE A CONVERGENCE
ZONE.  WITH 30 KNOT WINDS INDICATED JUST OFF THE SURFACE...WILL HAVE
TO WATCH FOR SOME MUCH HIGHER TOTALS THAN INDICATED BY THE MODELS AS
SOME TRAINING ECHOES COULD SET UP.

&&

.AVIATION...
STRATOCUMULUS CEILINGS HAVE BEEN ABOVE FL035 SO FAR BUT STEADY
MOISTENING OF THE LOW LEVELS WILL LIKELY LOWER CEILINGS TO NEAR
FL025 OVERNIGHT ALONG THE SOUTH COAST.  ON SAT SOME CEILINGS FL025-035
SHOULD LIFT NORTH AND AFFECT MOST OF THE SITES BY AFTERNOON.  ALSO
EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH MVFR TO SPREAD STEADILY NORTHWARD.
LOW LEVEL EAST WINDS WILL BE QUITE STRONG ON SAT...25-30 KNOTS...
SO EXPECT GUSTY SURFACE WINDS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST AND NEAR
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT-SAT...STRONG SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR.
EAST WINDS 20-25 KNOTS ARE INDICATED ON SAT WHICH WILL BUILD SEAS TO
6-9 FEET IN THE OPEN ATLANTIC.  A LOT OF CLOUDINESS WILL ALSO OCCUR
AND EVEN GUSTIER WINDS INDICATED NEAR SCATTERED SHOWERS...SO THE
WEATHER LOOKS BAD TOO.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE OUT 20 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET
     OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE
     20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
     SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET
     TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

FORECASTS...LASCODY
IMPACT WX...BLOTTMAN







000
FXUS62 KMLB 220206
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
906 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT-SAT...A BRISK EAST WIND FLOW IS WELL ESTABLISHED AS A RATHER
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTER PUSHES TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST. MID
LEVEL DRY LAYER HAS BEEN MODIFYING FROM ISENTROPIC LIFT WHILE LOW
LEVELS WERE MOISTENING FROM THE ONSHORE FLOW.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW THAT A THIN DRY LAYER IN BETWEEN WILL MOISTEN OVERNIGHT.  THE
18Z GFS SHOWED PRECIPITABLE WATER ELEVATING TO ABOUT 1.5 INCHES IN
THE NORTH AND 1.75 INCHES IN THE SOUTH BY 12Z SAT.  NOT MUCH PRECIP
IS GENERATED...BUT EXPECT THAT THERE WILL BE SPRINKLES AND EVEN A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SHOWERS ENCROACHING UPON THE FAR NORTHERN
AREAS TOWARDS DAWN.  THEREFORE HAVE ALREADY BUMPED UP POPS TO 20
PERCENT NORTH AND 30 PERCENT IN THE SOUTH.

EVENTUALLY EXPECT SOME ATLANTIC CLOUD LINES TO SET UP IN THE SOUTH
AND BRING A NARROW BAND WITH MODERATE SHOWERS AND A FEW DOWNPOURS
INTO THE COAST.  TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY NOT CHANGE MUCH ALONG
THE COAST DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND ONSHORE WINDS.  MIGHT HAVE TO TWEAK
THE NORTH COAST MINS UP SLIGHTLY.  EVEN THE NORTH INTERIOR MINS ARE
PROBABLY GOING TO OCCUR BEFORE MIDNIGHT...THEN BECOME STEADY OR RISE
A FEW DEGREES.

SAT...CONTINUED MOISTENING IS INDICATED SO IT LOOKS LIKE A MOSTLY
CLOUDY DAY.  NUDGED MAX TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY AS A RESULT.  THE NEW
MOS THAT WILL BECOME AVAILABLE IN THE NEXT MONTH OR TWO IS RUNNING
AT OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW THE OPERATIONAL MOS.

A SMALL DRY LAYER ALOFT IS FORECAST TO HANG ON AND THERE ARE NO
APPARENT IMPULSES ALOFT...SO PRECIP AMOUNTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE
LIGHT.  THE 18Z GFS MOS POPS JUMPED ABOUT 20-30 PERCENT TO 50-60
PERCENT AREAWIDE...BUT WILL NOT GO NEARLY THAT HIGH YET...OPTING TO
GO WITH 30 PERCENT IN THE NORTH AND 50 PERCENT IN THE SOUTHEAST.
THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR DOWNPOURS SHOULD BE ALONG THE TREASURE COAST
WHERE THE BRISK WINDS OFF THE BAHAMAS SHOULD PRODUCE A CONVERGENCE
ZONE.  WITH 30 KNOT WINDS INDICATED JUST OFF THE SURFACE...WILL HAVE
TO WATCH FOR SOME MUCH HIGHER TOTALS THAN INDICATED BY THE MODELS AS
SOME TRAINING ECHOES COULD SET UP.

&&

.AVIATION...
STRATOCUMULUS CEILINGS HAVE BEEN ABOVE FL035 SO FAR BUT STEADY
MOISTENING OF THE LOW LEVELS WILL LIKELY LOWER CEILINGS TO NEAR
FL025 OVERNIGHT ALONG THE SOUTH COAST.  ON SAT SOME CEILINGS FL025-035
SHOULD LIFT NORTH AND AFFECT MOST OF THE SITES BY AFTERNOON.  ALSO
EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH MVFR TO SPREAD STEADILY NORTHWARD.
LOW LEVEL EAST WINDS WILL BE QUITE STRONG ON SAT...25-30 KNOTS...
SO EXPECT GUSTY SURFACE WINDS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST AND NEAR
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT-SAT...STRONG SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR.
EAST WINDS 20-25 KNOTS ARE INDICATED ON SAT WHICH WILL BUILD SEAS TO
6-9 FEET IN THE OPEN ATLANTIC.  A LOT OF CLOUDINESS WILL ALSO OCCUR
AND EVEN GUSTIER WINDS INDICATED NEAR SCATTERED SHOWERS...SO THE
WEATHER LOOKS BAD TOO.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE OUT 20 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET
     OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE
     20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
     SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET
     TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

FORECASTS...LASCODY
IMPACT WX...BLOTTMAN






000
FXUS62 KMLB 212024
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
324 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...DEEP MOISTURE THROUGH 700 MB OVER SOUTH FL WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER ON TMFL 12Z SOUNDING AT 1.9 INCHES. LITTLE
FLOW BELOW 700 MB IS YET AVAILABLE TO PUSH IT MUCH NORTH. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS MID-ATLANIC SEABOARD WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
SAT WHICH OPENS DOOR FOR SOME OF THE LOCAL MOISTURE TO MOVE NORTH
WITH WARM FRONT. HOWEVER IT WILL OVERRIDE SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR
CURRENTLY IN PLACE WHICH WILL DRY UP MUCH OF THE RAIN TRYING TO
FORM BELOW MID-LEVEL CLOUDS TONIGHT/SAT. EVEN NOW THIS MOISTURE
IS ONLY GENERATING SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS OVER SOUTH FL AND DO
NOT EXPECT ANY BETTER HERE. KEPT ADJUSTMENTS IN FORECASTS LIMITED.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONT WI ONSHORE FLOW. MID-LVL CIGS TO INCR TONITE
AND MVFR CIGS MAY BCM QUITE WDSPRD BY SAT MRNG ALG WI AREAS OF
SHRA THO MOISTURE WL BATTLE DRY AIR AT LOW LVLS. BREEZY CONDS TO
CONT. WINDS BLO FL050 E 16-25 KT BCMG ESE BY LATE SAT. WINDS
ABV FL050 BCM SW AND INCR TO 35 KT BY FL150...WKNG TO S TO W 5-18
KT SAT NITE BEFORE STRENGTHENING TO SSE-SSW 25-35 KT SAT NITE.

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF NC/SC ON SAT WILL CONTINUE
CAUSING ONSHORE FLOW TO BE QUITE STRONG TONIGHT...DIMINISHING
SOMEWHAT ON SUNDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX BY SUN AS IT
MOVES INTO WEST ATLANTIC AND THE WARM FRONT EXITS NORTH. MODELS
STILL SUGGEST SEAS RISING TO A MAX OF 10 FT SAT NIGHT AND RETAINED
FORECAST AS IS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  61  75  71  81 /  20  20  60  50
MCO  60  78  68  82 /  10  20  60  50
MLB  71  78  74  82 /  20  30  50  40
VRB  71  79  75  83 /  20  30  40  40
LEE  58  77  66  82 /  10  20  60  50
SFB  59  77  68  83 /  10  20  60  50
ORL  61  77  68  82 /  10  20  60  50
FPR  70  78  75  83 /  20  30  40  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD
     COUNTY LINE OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-COASTAL
     WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET
     OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD
     COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA
     BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR WATERS FROM
     SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54
LONG TERM....54
AVIATION...54








000
FXUS62 KMLB 212024
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
324 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...DEEP MOISTURE THROUGH 700 MB OVER SOUTH FL WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER ON TMFL 12Z SOUNDING AT 1.9 INCHES. LITTLE
FLOW BELOW 700 MB IS YET AVAILABLE TO PUSH IT MUCH NORTH. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS MID-ATLANIC SEABOARD WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
SAT WHICH OPENS DOOR FOR SOME OF THE LOCAL MOISTURE TO MOVE NORTH
WITH WARM FRONT. HOWEVER IT WILL OVERRIDE SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR
CURRENTLY IN PLACE WHICH WILL DRY UP MUCH OF THE RAIN TRYING TO
FORM BELOW MID-LEVEL CLOUDS TONIGHT/SAT. EVEN NOW THIS MOISTURE
IS ONLY GENERATING SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS OVER SOUTH FL AND DO
NOT EXPECT ANY BETTER HERE. KEPT ADJUSTMENTS IN FORECASTS LIMITED.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONT WI ONSHORE FLOW. MID-LVL CIGS TO INCR TONITE
AND MVFR CIGS MAY BCM QUITE WDSPRD BY SAT MRNG ALG WI AREAS OF
SHRA THO MOISTURE WL BATTLE DRY AIR AT LOW LVLS. BREEZY CONDS TO
CONT. WINDS BLO FL050 E 16-25 KT BCMG ESE BY LATE SAT. WINDS
ABV FL050 BCM SW AND INCR TO 35 KT BY FL150...WKNG TO S TO W 5-18
KT SAT NITE BEFORE STRENGTHENING TO SSE-SSW 25-35 KT SAT NITE.

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF NC/SC ON SAT WILL CONTINUE
CAUSING ONSHORE FLOW TO BE QUITE STRONG TONIGHT...DIMINISHING
SOMEWHAT ON SUNDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX BY SUN AS IT
MOVES INTO WEST ATLANTIC AND THE WARM FRONT EXITS NORTH. MODELS
STILL SUGGEST SEAS RISING TO A MAX OF 10 FT SAT NIGHT AND RETAINED
FORECAST AS IS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  61  75  71  81 /  20  20  60  50
MCO  60  78  68  82 /  10  20  60  50
MLB  71  78  74  82 /  20  30  50  40
VRB  71  79  75  83 /  20  30  40  40
LEE  58  77  66  82 /  10  20  60  50
SFB  59  77  68  83 /  10  20  60  50
ORL  61  77  68  82 /  10  20  60  50
FPR  70  78  75  83 /  20  30  40  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD
     COUNTY LINE OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-COASTAL
     WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET
     OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD
     COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA
     BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR WATERS FROM
     SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54
LONG TERM....54
AVIATION...54







000
FXUS62 KMLB 211416
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
915 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...

FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL CONTINUE TO BE DOMINATED BY SURFACE HIGH TO
THE NORTH WHICH HAS BEEN REINFORCED BY STRONGER HIGH MOVING ACROSS
OH VALLEY. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND REMNANT TROUGHINESS
ACROSS S FL/CUBA FROM THE FRONT EARLIER IN THE WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN LEADING TO BREEZY ONSHORE FLOW.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO CONTINUE ITS STEADY INCREASE WITH FLOW
VEERING AND TAPPING INTO THE DEEPER MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH. RADAR
ALREADY SHOWS BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES LIFTING INTO LAKE
OKEECHOBEE REGION AND TREASURE COAST AND THIS WILL MAKE SOME
NORTHWARD PROGRESS THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER THERE IS STILL A PRETTY
GOOD DRY AIRMASS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE PENINSULA SO DON`T
EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO GET MUCH FURTHER NORTH THAN ABOUT VERO
BEACH. OVERALL HOWEVER...IMPACTS WILL REMAIN MINIMAL AND EXPECTING
MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATING RAINFALL FROM THIS ACTIVITY.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS
REACHING THE LOW-MID 70S MOST AREAS TODAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS GENERALLY EXPECTED. BREEZY E/NE WINDS
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST FROM KMLB SOUTHWARD. ISOLD -SHRA/DZ OVER
ATLC AND AREAS FROM KVRB TO KOBE SOUTHWARDS...THOUGH OCCASIONAL CIGS
FL035-040 POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED INTO TONIGHT AS
GRADIENT TIGHTENS ACROSS THE STATE BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND FRONTAL REMNANT OVER CUBA/FL STRAITS.
EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW 15-20KTS QUICKLY INCREASING TO 20-25 KNOTS OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS INTO TONIGHT. THESE ELEVATED WINDS WILL
EVENTUALLY BUILD SEAS UP TO 6-7 FEET LATE TONIGHT WITH THE
INCREASING EASTERLY FETCH.

NO CHANGES TO CURRENT ADVISORIES WITH AN SCA OVER THE OFFSHORE
WATERS OF THE TREASURE COAST THIS MORNING...EXPANDING
NORTHWARD/NEARSHORE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...EVENTUALLY
COVERING THE ENTIRE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD
     COUNTY LINE OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 PM EST
     SUNDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER
     INLET OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY
     LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH
     TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS
     FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO
     60 NM OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR WATERS FROM
     SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

MOSES/KELLY








000
FXUS62 KMLB 211416
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
915 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...

FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL CONTINUE TO BE DOMINATED BY SURFACE HIGH TO
THE NORTH WHICH HAS BEEN REINFORCED BY STRONGER HIGH MOVING ACROSS
OH VALLEY. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND REMNANT TROUGHINESS
ACROSS S FL/CUBA FROM THE FRONT EARLIER IN THE WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN LEADING TO BREEZY ONSHORE FLOW.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO CONTINUE ITS STEADY INCREASE WITH FLOW
VEERING AND TAPPING INTO THE DEEPER MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH. RADAR
ALREADY SHOWS BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES LIFTING INTO LAKE
OKEECHOBEE REGION AND TREASURE COAST AND THIS WILL MAKE SOME
NORTHWARD PROGRESS THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER THERE IS STILL A PRETTY
GOOD DRY AIRMASS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE PENINSULA SO DON`T
EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO GET MUCH FURTHER NORTH THAN ABOUT VERO
BEACH. OVERALL HOWEVER...IMPACTS WILL REMAIN MINIMAL AND EXPECTING
MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATING RAINFALL FROM THIS ACTIVITY.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS
REACHING THE LOW-MID 70S MOST AREAS TODAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS GENERALLY EXPECTED. BREEZY E/NE WINDS
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST FROM KMLB SOUTHWARD. ISOLD -SHRA/DZ OVER
ATLC AND AREAS FROM KVRB TO KOBE SOUTHWARDS...THOUGH OCCASIONAL CIGS
FL035-040 POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED INTO TONIGHT AS
GRADIENT TIGHTENS ACROSS THE STATE BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND FRONTAL REMNANT OVER CUBA/FL STRAITS.
EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW 15-20KTS QUICKLY INCREASING TO 20-25 KNOTS OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS INTO TONIGHT. THESE ELEVATED WINDS WILL
EVENTUALLY BUILD SEAS UP TO 6-7 FEET LATE TONIGHT WITH THE
INCREASING EASTERLY FETCH.

NO CHANGES TO CURRENT ADVISORIES WITH AN SCA OVER THE OFFSHORE
WATERS OF THE TREASURE COAST THIS MORNING...EXPANDING
NORTHWARD/NEARSHORE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...EVENTUALLY
COVERING THE ENTIRE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD
     COUNTY LINE OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 PM EST
     SUNDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER
     INLET OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY
     LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH
     TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS
     FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO
     60 NM OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR WATERS FROM
     SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

MOSES/KELLY









000
FXUS62 KMLB 210850
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
350 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY...ASCENDING BRANCH OF JET STREAK ALOFT PRODUCING
CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUD COVER OVER CENTRAL FL AS WELL AS HELPING
GENERATE ISO LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS PALM BEACH
COUNTY. A FEW OF THESE LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES MAY BRUSH MARTIN
COUNTY AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING.

TODAY/TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL BE ABSORBED BY
STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THAT WILL BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY TODAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW WITH
BREEZY CONDS EXPECTED INTO THIS AFT ESPECIALLY ALONG COASTAL AREAS
FROM THE CAPE SOUTHWARD. INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE
ELEVATED E/NE FLOW SHOULD LEAD TO ISO LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES OVER
THE WATERS THAT WILL MOVE ONSHORE ALONG THE COAST. THESE SHOWERS
WILL MAINLY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS AREAS FROM VERO BEACH SOUTHWARD TODAY
AND THEN ACROSS THE ENTIRE COAST INTO TONIGHT. HOWEVER NOT EXPECTING
MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATING RAINFALL FROM THIS ACTIVITY.

ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS
REACHING THE LOW-MID 70S MOST AREAS TODAY. TEMPS ALONG COASTAL AREAS
SOUTH OF THE CAPE NOT EXPECTED TO DROP MUCH OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS
FORECAST IN THE LOW 70S DUE TO PERSISTENT E/NE WINDS...WHILE FARTHER
INLAND TEMPS WILL FALL AS LOW AS THE UPPER 50S NORTHWEST OF I-4.

SAT-MON...MID-UPPER FLOW REMAINS SWRLY. FLAT RIDGING CENTERED NEAR
CUBA SHIFTS EAST AND AMPLIFIES OVER THE ATLC AS A LARGE TROUGH
DEVELOPS UPSTREAM...WITH ITS AXIS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. AHEAD OF
THIS...A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE FEATURE OVER THE WRN GULF COAST
SUN GETS EJECTED RAPIDLY NEWD THRU THE TN/OH VALLEYS SUN-SUN NIGHT.

AT THE SURFACE...A LARGE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NORTH OF FL PRODUCES
STRONG ONSHORE/ERLY FLOW SATURDAY..THEN SHIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH
MONDAY...ALLOWING WINDS TO VEER TO SE-S ON SUNDAY...AND SWRLY ON
MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE SERN CONUS.
AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS THE OLD REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH
OF THE FL STRAITS WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NWD...MOVING THROUGH THE CTRL
PENINSULA SAT NIGHT-EARLY SUN. INCREASING MOISTURE/UPGLIDE NEAR
AND AHEAD OF THE WARM FROPA WILL RESULT IN INCREASING RAIN CHANCES
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH SAT INTO SUN. MONDAY LOOKS QUITE WARM WITH
DIURNALLY FORCED SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER MEAN
PWATS AND THUS POPS ACROSS THE NORTH. TEMPS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CLIMO SAT...OTHERWISE SOLIDLY ABOVE NORMAL.

TUE-THU...COLD FRONT BRIEFLY SLOWS AS IT REACHES NORTH FL  MON NIGHT
DUE TO A SECOND SHORT WAVE TROUGH SHEARING OUT TO THE NE...BUT THEN
RESUMES SWD PROGRESS ACROSS THE PENINSULA DURING THE DAY/EVENING.
TUE-TUE NIGHT LOOKS CLOUDY/RAINY AND TURNING COOLER BEHIND FROPA.
COOL WED THROUGH THU WED WITH CLOUDS/PRECIP SLOW TO WORK THEIR WAY
SOUTH...CLEARING WED NIGHT AND SUNNY THU AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO
THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS GENERALLY EXPECTED. E/NE WINDS WILL BECOME
BREEZY ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST FROM KMLB SOUTHWARD THIS AFT.

&&

.MARINE...TODAY/TONIGHT...STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED TODAY
INTO TONIGHT AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SHIFTS E/SE FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. POOR TO HAZARDOUS BOATING
CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH E/NE WINDS INCREASING UP TO 20-25 KNOTS
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS INTO TONIGHT. THESE ELEVATED WINDS WILL
EVENTUALLY BUILD SEAS UP TO 6-7 FEET.

WILL START WITH A SCA OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF THE TREASURE COAST
THIS MORNING...EXPANDING NORTHWARD/NEARSHORE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT...EVENTUALLY COVERING THE ENTIRE COASTAL WATERS.

SAT-TUE...SOLID SCA CONDITIONS WILL EXIST THE ENTIRE WEEKEND WITH
20-25 E-SE WINDS GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF LATE SUNDAY AS THEY VEER
MORE TO SRLY AND EVENTUALLY SW BY MONDAY. WINDS SLACKEN A BIT LATE
MON-EARLY TUE...HOWEVER THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS ACROSS THE
AREA ON TUE...BRINGING A RETURN TO BRISK NW-NRLY FLOW THROUGH TUE
NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  71  61  77  70 /  10  10  20  60
MCO  73  60  80  67 /  10  10  20  60
MLB  75  71  80  74 /  10  20  30  50
VRB  76  71  81  74 /  20  20  30  40
LEE  71  58  79  66 /   0  10  20  60
SFB  74  59  80  67 /  10  10  20  60
ORL  73  61  79  66 /  10  10  20  60
FPR  76  70  80  74 /  20  20  30  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD
     COUNTY LINE OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET
     OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE
     TO SEBASTIAN INLET OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO
     VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS
     FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO
     60 NM OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR WATERS FROM
     SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...WEITLICH
LONG TERM...CRISTALDI






000
FXUS62 KMLB 210850
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
350 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY...ASCENDING BRANCH OF JET STREAK ALOFT PRODUCING
CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUD COVER OVER CENTRAL FL AS WELL AS HELPING
GENERATE ISO LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS PALM BEACH
COUNTY. A FEW OF THESE LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES MAY BRUSH MARTIN
COUNTY AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING.

TODAY/TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL BE ABSORBED BY
STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THAT WILL BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY TODAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW WITH
BREEZY CONDS EXPECTED INTO THIS AFT ESPECIALLY ALONG COASTAL AREAS
FROM THE CAPE SOUTHWARD. INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE
ELEVATED E/NE FLOW SHOULD LEAD TO ISO LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES OVER
THE WATERS THAT WILL MOVE ONSHORE ALONG THE COAST. THESE SHOWERS
WILL MAINLY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS AREAS FROM VERO BEACH SOUTHWARD TODAY
AND THEN ACROSS THE ENTIRE COAST INTO TONIGHT. HOWEVER NOT EXPECTING
MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATING RAINFALL FROM THIS ACTIVITY.

ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS
REACHING THE LOW-MID 70S MOST AREAS TODAY. TEMPS ALONG COASTAL AREAS
SOUTH OF THE CAPE NOT EXPECTED TO DROP MUCH OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS
FORECAST IN THE LOW 70S DUE TO PERSISTENT E/NE WINDS...WHILE FARTHER
INLAND TEMPS WILL FALL AS LOW AS THE UPPER 50S NORTHWEST OF I-4.

SAT-MON...MID-UPPER FLOW REMAINS SWRLY. FLAT RIDGING CENTERED NEAR
CUBA SHIFTS EAST AND AMPLIFIES OVER THE ATLC AS A LARGE TROUGH
DEVELOPS UPSTREAM...WITH ITS AXIS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. AHEAD OF
THIS...A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE FEATURE OVER THE WRN GULF COAST
SUN GETS EJECTED RAPIDLY NEWD THRU THE TN/OH VALLEYS SUN-SUN NIGHT.

AT THE SURFACE...A LARGE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NORTH OF FL PRODUCES
STRONG ONSHORE/ERLY FLOW SATURDAY..THEN SHIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH
MONDAY...ALLOWING WINDS TO VEER TO SE-S ON SUNDAY...AND SWRLY ON
MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE SERN CONUS.
AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS THE OLD REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH
OF THE FL STRAITS WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NWD...MOVING THROUGH THE CTRL
PENINSULA SAT NIGHT-EARLY SUN. INCREASING MOISTURE/UPGLIDE NEAR
AND AHEAD OF THE WARM FROPA WILL RESULT IN INCREASING RAIN CHANCES
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH SAT INTO SUN. MONDAY LOOKS QUITE WARM WITH
DIURNALLY FORCED SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER MEAN
PWATS AND THUS POPS ACROSS THE NORTH. TEMPS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CLIMO SAT...OTHERWISE SOLIDLY ABOVE NORMAL.

TUE-THU...COLD FRONT BRIEFLY SLOWS AS IT REACHES NORTH FL  MON NIGHT
DUE TO A SECOND SHORT WAVE TROUGH SHEARING OUT TO THE NE...BUT THEN
RESUMES SWD PROGRESS ACROSS THE PENINSULA DURING THE DAY/EVENING.
TUE-TUE NIGHT LOOKS CLOUDY/RAINY AND TURNING COOLER BEHIND FROPA.
COOL WED THROUGH THU WED WITH CLOUDS/PRECIP SLOW TO WORK THEIR WAY
SOUTH...CLEARING WED NIGHT AND SUNNY THU AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO
THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS GENERALLY EXPECTED. E/NE WINDS WILL BECOME
BREEZY ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST FROM KMLB SOUTHWARD THIS AFT.

&&

.MARINE...TODAY/TONIGHT...STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED TODAY
INTO TONIGHT AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SHIFTS E/SE FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. POOR TO HAZARDOUS BOATING
CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH E/NE WINDS INCREASING UP TO 20-25 KNOTS
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS INTO TONIGHT. THESE ELEVATED WINDS WILL
EVENTUALLY BUILD SEAS UP TO 6-7 FEET.

WILL START WITH A SCA OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF THE TREASURE COAST
THIS MORNING...EXPANDING NORTHWARD/NEARSHORE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT...EVENTUALLY COVERING THE ENTIRE COASTAL WATERS.

SAT-TUE...SOLID SCA CONDITIONS WILL EXIST THE ENTIRE WEEKEND WITH
20-25 E-SE WINDS GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF LATE SUNDAY AS THEY VEER
MORE TO SRLY AND EVENTUALLY SW BY MONDAY. WINDS SLACKEN A BIT LATE
MON-EARLY TUE...HOWEVER THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS ACROSS THE
AREA ON TUE...BRINGING A RETURN TO BRISK NW-NRLY FLOW THROUGH TUE
NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  71  61  77  70 /  10  10  20  60
MCO  73  60  80  67 /  10  10  20  60
MLB  75  71  80  74 /  10  20  30  50
VRB  76  71  81  74 /  20  20  30  40
LEE  71  58  79  66 /   0  10  20  60
SFB  74  59  80  67 /  10  10  20  60
ORL  73  61  79  66 /  10  10  20  60
FPR  76  70  80  74 /  20  20  30  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD
     COUNTY LINE OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET
     OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE
     TO SEBASTIAN INLET OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO
     VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS
     FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO
     60 NM OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR WATERS FROM
     SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...WEITLICH
LONG TERM...CRISTALDI







000
FXUS62 KMLB 210209
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
909 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.UPDATE...

...HAZARDOUS BEACH/BOATING CONDITIONS LATE FRI THROUGH WEEKEND...

TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS TO OUR NORTH WAS
PRODUCING AN ONSHORE LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW...WHICH HAD RECENTLY
DIMINISHED SLIGHTLY AS THE RIDGE TEMPORARILY WEAKENED.  THIS ALLOWED
FOR A LAND BREEZE TO FORM WITH LIGHT TO WEAKLY WEST SURFACE FLOW
ALONG THE COAST.  A COASTAL TROUGH WAS INDICATED AND RADAR WAS
SHOWING THE BOUNDARY MOVING BACK TOWARDS THE BREVARD COAST.  THE
TROUGH WAS JUST ONSHORE IN MARTIN COUNTY AS THE WINDS THERE HAD
VEERED TO THE NORTHEAST.  THIS WAS CAUSING A WIDE RANGE OF
TEMPERATURES AT 9 PM WITH READINGS FROM 50 DEGREES AT LEESBURG AND
DELAND TO THE UPPER 60S AT STUART.

MANY PLACES FROM THE CAPE SOUTHWARD ARE ALREADY CLOSE TO THEIR
OVERNIGHT LOW.  THE NORTH COAST WILL NOT LIKELY SEE ANY ONSHORE WIND
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT THOUGH WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE SHOULD SWING AROUND
TO THE NORTHEAST.  THIS ALONG WITH SOME CIRRUS STREAMING ACROSS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR JUST A LITTLE FURTHER COOLING TOWARDS UPPER
40S/LOWER 50S.  THE SAME CAN BE SAID FOR THE INTERIOR WITH JUST A
LITTLE ADDITIONAL COOLING THE REST OF THE NIGHT. OVERALL THE CURRENT
MIN TEMPS LOOK GOOD...THOUGH IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO GET THE HOURLY
TEMPERATURES CORRECT EVERYWHERE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST.

CURRENTLY WE HAVE A SMALL POP FOR THE SOUTHEAST COAST.  THE DEPTH OF
ONSHORE FLOW IS SHALLOW BUT THE MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASING THE MOISTURE DEPTH.  THE LOCAL WRF
GENERATES AN AREA OF PRECIP BUT KEEPS IT SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE
TREASURE COAST.  THE HRRR MODEL SHOWS LIGHT PRECIP SOUTHEAST OF
MARTIN COUNTY.  THOUGH SKEPTICAL OF THE 30 PERCENT MOS POPS FOR
STUART...AIR MASS MODIFICATION WILL CERTAINLY BE OCCURRING ALONG THE
SOUTH COAST SO WILL LEAVE THE CURRENT 20 PERCENT RAIN CHANCE THERE.

&&

.AVIATION...
PREVAILING VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MVFR SHOWERS MAINLY SOUTH OF KVRB
FRI MORNING.  NORTHEAST/EAST FLOW WILL BECOME GUSTY DURING THE LATE
MORNING ALONG MUCH OF THE COAST AND MAYBE EVEN AT SOME OF THE
INTERIOR TAFS IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT-FRIDAY...A LITTLE BIT OF AN EASING GRADIENT HAD OCCURRED IN
THE NORTH AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TEMPORARILY WEAKENED.  THE RIDGE
WILL STRENGTHEN BACK UP FRI MORNING...SO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PICK
UP TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND PROBABLY WILL TOUCH 20 KNOTS IN THE
AFTERNOON.  WILL CONTINUE THE EXERCISE CAUTION STATEMENT IN THE GULF
STREAM...WHICH MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED OVER ALL OF THE WATERS FRI.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LOOKS PROBABLE FOR AT LEAST THE GULF STREAM
BY LATE DAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS FURTHER.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

FORECASTS...LASCODY
IMPACT WX...VOLKMER






000
FXUS62 KMLB 202056
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
356 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER FLORIDA
PANHANDLE WILL CONTINUE TO BE REINFORCED BY SECONDARY HIGH DROPPING
SOUTHEAST OVER THE MIDWEST THIS EVENING WITH THE HIGH CENTERED
CONSOLIDATING OVER THE OH VALLEY BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY.

AS IS OFTEN THE CASE...WINDS HAVE REMAINED A LITTLE MORE BACKED
NORTH THIS AFTERNOON RATHER THAN VEERING NORTHEAST. EVEN WITH JET
INDUCED HIGH CLOUD COVER THOUGH...HIGH TEMPS HAVE MANAGED TO CLIMB
INTO THE MID-UPPER 60S ACROSS THE NORTH AND LOW 70S IN THE SOUTH.

TEMPS WILL HOLD STEADY FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AN THEN FALL QUICKLY
AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO MODIFY WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID-UPPER 40S ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF
I-4 AND IN RURAL AREAS OF OSCEOLA AND BREVARD...TO THE UPPER 50S AND
LOW 60S ALONG COASTAL BREVARD AND INDIAN RIVER COUNTIES.

WHILE FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL REMAIN BACKED...FURTHER ALOFT WINDS
SHIFT MORE EAST-NORTHEAST WITH TIME TAPPING BACK INTO THE MOISTURE
POOLED ACROSS S FL AND BAHAMAS. THERE LOOKS TO BE A BETTER CHANCE AT
LOW TOPPED ATLC SHOWERS SOUTH OF VERO BEACH LATE TONIGHT WITH A FEW
MOVING INTO THE COAST.

FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH CENTER MIGRATES TOWARDS THE EAST COAST WITH
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS FL PENINSULA. BREEZY EAST TO
NORTHEAST FLOW WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO A
FEW MORE ATLANTIC SHOWERS AND CONVERGENCE BANDS...ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE TREASURE COAST. HOWEVER EXPECTED OVERALL AMOUNTS TO REMAIN
LOW. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY BREVARD SOUTHWARDS
IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...WITH A
FEW UPPER 70S ACROSS MARTIN COUNTY.

WEEKEND...AREA OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE VA CAPES EARLY SAT
WILL PUSH OFFSHORE AND MOISTURE FROM OLD FRONT TO THE SOUTH WILL
LIFT NORTH. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH BRISK EAST FLOW TO INCREASE
RAIN CHANCES ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. FOR SAT...HAVE INCREASED
RAIN CHANCES TO 50 PERCENT ALONG THE TREASURE COAST DECREASING
TO 20 PERCENT WELL INLAND OVER LAKE COUNTY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST SAT NIGHT ESP ACROSS THE NORTH AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH OF THE AREA. THEN THE FA WILL BE SQUARELY IN THE WARM SECTOR
SUNDAY WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY FLOW AND HIGHS REACHING THE LOW TO
MID 80S.

MON-THU...CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES AND WARM TEMPS FORECAST INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE EASTWARD ADVANCING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PUSHES A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY/TUES NIGHT. SOME
LINGERING PRECIP EXPECTED BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE TUE NIGHT/WED DUE
TO OVERRUNNING MOISTURE AND FORCED ASCENT FROM STRONG 250MB JET
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. COAST. TEMPS WILL FALL TO BELOW NORMAL
VALUES BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS COLD AS THE
MOST RECENT FRONTAL PASSAGE. THANKSGIVING DAY LOOKS DRY AT THIS
TIME WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...
PREVAILING VFR. BKN HIGH CLOUDS FL200 AND ABOVE THROUGH THE DAY.
OCCASIONAL MARINE SCT STRATOCU ALONG COAST. LIGHT SHRA OVER
ATLC...A FEW MOVING INTO COAST SOUTH OF KVRB MAINLY AFTER 21/06Z
THOUGH A FEW ARE POSSIBLE EARLIER. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS FRI AFTN
BECOMING EAST-NORTHEAST INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS
10-15KTS AND GUSTS INTO THE 20KTS...ESPECIALLY ALONG TREASURE
COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT-FRIDAY...POOR BOATING CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND GUSTY
OVERNIGHT VEERING EAST-NORTHEAST BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
TIGHTENING GRADIENT WILL ALSO BRING SPEEDS UP DURING THE DAY ON
FRIDAY AND WE MAY BE FLIRTING WITH SCA CONDITIONS SOUTH OF THE
CAPE BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH WINDS CLOSER TO 20KTS.

SEAS WITHIN A FEW MILES OF THE COAST CONTINUE AROUND 2 TO 4 FT
WITH 5-6FT OVER GULF STREAM. CHOPPY SEA STATE CONTINUES ESPECIALLY
OVER GULF STREAM DUE TO OPPOSING N-NE WINDS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION.

SAT-SUN...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF THE VA/NC COAST SAT
THEN SEAWARD SUN AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
TO THE GREAT LAKES. ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES 20-25 KNOTS SAT WITH A
LONG EASTERLY FETCH PRODUCING SEAS UP TO 10 FEET OFFSHORE. FLOW
VEERS OUT OF THE SOUTH SUNDAY WITH SOME DECREASE IN SPEED BUT
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.

SOUTHWEST FLOW MON AND TUE NOT AS STRONG AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT
BUT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS POSSIBLE TUE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  47  72  61  77 /   0  10  10  30
MCO  50  75  60  79 /   0   0  10  20
MLB  56  75  68  79 /  10  10  20  40
VRB  60  77  69  79 /  10  20  20  40
LEE  45  73  58  78 /   0   0  10  20
SFB  49  74  60  79 /   0   0  10  20
ORL  51  74  61  79 /   0   0  10  20
FPR  61  76  69  80 /  10  20  20  50

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOSES
LONG TERM....KELLY








000
FXUS62 KMLB 202056
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
356 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER FLORIDA
PANHANDLE WILL CONTINUE TO BE REINFORCED BY SECONDARY HIGH DROPPING
SOUTHEAST OVER THE MIDWEST THIS EVENING WITH THE HIGH CENTERED
CONSOLIDATING OVER THE OH VALLEY BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY.

AS IS OFTEN THE CASE...WINDS HAVE REMAINED A LITTLE MORE BACKED
NORTH THIS AFTERNOON RATHER THAN VEERING NORTHEAST. EVEN WITH JET
INDUCED HIGH CLOUD COVER THOUGH...HIGH TEMPS HAVE MANAGED TO CLIMB
INTO THE MID-UPPER 60S ACROSS THE NORTH AND LOW 70S IN THE SOUTH.

TEMPS WILL HOLD STEADY FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AN THEN FALL QUICKLY
AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO MODIFY WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID-UPPER 40S ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF
I-4 AND IN RURAL AREAS OF OSCEOLA AND BREVARD...TO THE UPPER 50S AND
LOW 60S ALONG COASTAL BREVARD AND INDIAN RIVER COUNTIES.

WHILE FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL REMAIN BACKED...FURTHER ALOFT WINDS
SHIFT MORE EAST-NORTHEAST WITH TIME TAPPING BACK INTO THE MOISTURE
POOLED ACROSS S FL AND BAHAMAS. THERE LOOKS TO BE A BETTER CHANCE AT
LOW TOPPED ATLC SHOWERS SOUTH OF VERO BEACH LATE TONIGHT WITH A FEW
MOVING INTO THE COAST.

FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH CENTER MIGRATES TOWARDS THE EAST COAST WITH
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS FL PENINSULA. BREEZY EAST TO
NORTHEAST FLOW WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO A
FEW MORE ATLANTIC SHOWERS AND CONVERGENCE BANDS...ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE TREASURE COAST. HOWEVER EXPECTED OVERALL AMOUNTS TO REMAIN
LOW. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY BREVARD SOUTHWARDS
IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...WITH A
FEW UPPER 70S ACROSS MARTIN COUNTY.

WEEKEND...AREA OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE VA CAPES EARLY SAT
WILL PUSH OFFSHORE AND MOISTURE FROM OLD FRONT TO THE SOUTH WILL
LIFT NORTH. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH BRISK EAST FLOW TO INCREASE
RAIN CHANCES ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. FOR SAT...HAVE INCREASED
RAIN CHANCES TO 50 PERCENT ALONG THE TREASURE COAST DECREASING
TO 20 PERCENT WELL INLAND OVER LAKE COUNTY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST SAT NIGHT ESP ACROSS THE NORTH AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH OF THE AREA. THEN THE FA WILL BE SQUARELY IN THE WARM SECTOR
SUNDAY WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY FLOW AND HIGHS REACHING THE LOW TO
MID 80S.

MON-THU...CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES AND WARM TEMPS FORECAST INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE EASTWARD ADVANCING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PUSHES A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY/TUES NIGHT. SOME
LINGERING PRECIP EXPECTED BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE TUE NIGHT/WED DUE
TO OVERRUNNING MOISTURE AND FORCED ASCENT FROM STRONG 250MB JET
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. COAST. TEMPS WILL FALL TO BELOW NORMAL
VALUES BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS COLD AS THE
MOST RECENT FRONTAL PASSAGE. THANKSGIVING DAY LOOKS DRY AT THIS
TIME WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...
PREVAILING VFR. BKN HIGH CLOUDS FL200 AND ABOVE THROUGH THE DAY.
OCCASIONAL MARINE SCT STRATOCU ALONG COAST. LIGHT SHRA OVER
ATLC...A FEW MOVING INTO COAST SOUTH OF KVRB MAINLY AFTER 21/06Z
THOUGH A FEW ARE POSSIBLE EARLIER. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS FRI AFTN
BECOMING EAST-NORTHEAST INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS
10-15KTS AND GUSTS INTO THE 20KTS...ESPECIALLY ALONG TREASURE
COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT-FRIDAY...POOR BOATING CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND GUSTY
OVERNIGHT VEERING EAST-NORTHEAST BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
TIGHTENING GRADIENT WILL ALSO BRING SPEEDS UP DURING THE DAY ON
FRIDAY AND WE MAY BE FLIRTING WITH SCA CONDITIONS SOUTH OF THE
CAPE BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH WINDS CLOSER TO 20KTS.

SEAS WITHIN A FEW MILES OF THE COAST CONTINUE AROUND 2 TO 4 FT
WITH 5-6FT OVER GULF STREAM. CHOPPY SEA STATE CONTINUES ESPECIALLY
OVER GULF STREAM DUE TO OPPOSING N-NE WINDS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION.

SAT-SUN...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF THE VA/NC COAST SAT
THEN SEAWARD SUN AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
TO THE GREAT LAKES. ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES 20-25 KNOTS SAT WITH A
LONG EASTERLY FETCH PRODUCING SEAS UP TO 10 FEET OFFSHORE. FLOW
VEERS OUT OF THE SOUTH SUNDAY WITH SOME DECREASE IN SPEED BUT
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.

SOUTHWEST FLOW MON AND TUE NOT AS STRONG AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT
BUT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS POSSIBLE TUE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  47  72  61  77 /   0  10  10  30
MCO  50  75  60  79 /   0   0  10  20
MLB  56  75  68  79 /  10  10  20  40
VRB  60  77  69  79 /  10  20  20  40
LEE  45  73  58  78 /   0   0  10  20
SFB  49  74  60  79 /   0   0  10  20
ORL  51  74  61  79 /   0   0  10  20
FPR  61  76  69  80 /  10  20  20  50

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOSES
LONG TERM....KELLY









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