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000
FXUS62 KMLB 060723
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
320 AM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...

...UNSEASONABLY COOL THIS MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

CURRENT...ANOTHER REINFORCING COOL FRONT IS PASSING THROUGH ECFL
EARLY THIS MORNING AS WITNESSED BY WIND SHIFT FROM WEST TO NORTHWEST
AND ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY BY A THIN CLOUD LINE. THIS WEAK
BOUNDARY WILL USHER IN DRIER/COOLER AIR ACROSS THE AREA IN ITS WAKE.
SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR ASIDE FROM A FEW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED ALONG
THE FRONT. LOW TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BOTTOM OUT IN
THE 50S AREAWIDE...GENERALLY 5-10 DEGREES LOWER THAN SEASONAL NORMS.

TODAY-TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE ARKLATEX REGION WILL
SLIDE SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES A BIT TODAY AS WNW/NW WINDS INCREASE IN THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON TO AROUND 15 MPH WITH OCNL HIGHER GUSTS EXPECTED.
THE WIND COMPONENT MAY VEER AROUND TO NNE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON
ALONG THE VOLUSIA COAST. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY WITH NO
THREAT FOR RAIN. ALOFT...A VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD WILL MOVE ONLY SLIGHTLY EASTWARD SENDING OCNL IMPULSES
ACROSS THE AREA. UNSEASONABLY COOL WITH HIGHS MAINLY 70S AREAWIDE.
OVERNIGHT LOWS STILL BELOW SEASONAL AND GENERALLY IN THE L-M
50S...EXCEPT U50S POSSIBLE ACROSS LARGER METROPOLITAN AREAS OR ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE SPACE/TREASURE COASTS. ANOTHER WEAK BACKDOOR COOL
FRONT WILL BRUSH THE LOCAL COASTAL WATERS LATE OVERNIGHT. THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN TOO DRY/STABLE TO PRODUCE ANY PRECIPITATION
OVER LAND.

SAT-TUE...AXIS OF THE DEEP WRN ATLC TROUGH SHIFTS EWD SAT AS THE
OMEGA BLOCK TO THE NORTH BREAKS DOWN. THIS ALLOWS A MID LEVEL RIDGE
TO BUILD EWD ACROSS FL FROM THE GOMEX AND REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER THE
AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS OVER FL INTO THIS
WEEKEND KEEPING CONDS WX WARM AND DRY BUT NOT TERRIBLY HUMID. HIGH
WILL THEN SLIDE EWD WITH ITS AXIS REMAINING OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA
THROUGH EARLY MON THEN LIFT NORTH OF CTRL FL TUE....RESULTING IN A
TREND TWD MORE HUMID CONDS. ONE MORE DAY/NIGHT OF SLIGHTLY COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPS SAT. MAXES NEAR TO A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE NORMAL
EARLY EXT WEEK WITH MINS RUNNING ABOUT 1-2 CATEGORIES ABOVE CLIMO.
ECFL NORMALS FOR EARLY MAY ARE ABOUT 85-88F/63-66F.

WED-FRI...FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK...A COUPLE WEAK MID LEVEL
PERTURBATIONS BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE ALOFT WITH LIGHT SE/SRLY FLOW AND
INCREASING MOISTURE ALLOWING FOR A SLGT CHANCE OF DIURNAL SHRA/TS BY
THU (IF NOT WED) PERHAPS A BIT HIGHER BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPS
REMAIN NEAR OR SLGTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. WNW/NW WINDS 5-10 KTS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
INCREASE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON TO 10-15 KTS WITH SOME HIGHER
GUSTS. WINDS FALL TO LIGHT AGAIN THIS EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...TODAY-TONIGHT...THE LATEST WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA VERY EARLY THIS MORNING WITH ELEVATED NW WINDS 15-
20 KTS CONTINUING OVER THE OPEN ATLC...THOUGH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES THROUGH THE DAY WITH WIND SPEEDS DECREASING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH WILL PASS DOWN THE
COASTAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT WITH WNW/NW WINDS INCREASING TOWARDS
CAUTIONARY CRITERIA ONCE AGAIN. SEAS STARTING 3-4 FT NEAR SHORE AND
5-6 FT OFFSHORE WILL SUBSIDE TO 2-3 FT NEAR SHORE AND AROUND 4 FT
OFFSHORE BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

SAT-TUE...NW-NRLY FLOW WILL DECREASE AS SFC RIDGE BUILDS INTO FL
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. SEAS OF 3-4FT WILL SUBSIDE TO 2-3FT AS WINDS
DROP AOB 10KT. WINDS WILL TURN LIGHT SRLY MON THEN BACK TO SE AND
INCREASE TO 10-15KT TUE AS RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS NORTH OF CTRL FL. SEAS
OF 2-3FT MON INCREASING BACK TO 3-4FT INTO TUE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...TODAY...SEVERAL HOURS OF RH`S BETWEEN 25 TO 35 PCT
FROM LATE THIS MORNING THRU THE AFTERNOON AREAWIDE.  NO RAIN IN THE
FORECAST AND WILL SEE ERC VALUES SLOWLY INCREASE BUT THEY SHOULD
REMAIN TOO LOW FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS. 20FT WINDS FROM THE NW AT
10-15 MPH.

SAT-TUE...SEVERAL HOURS OF CRITICALLY LOW RH VALUES EXPECTED AGAIN
SAT AS HIGH PRES RIDGE AND DRY AIR HOLD SWAY. SHALLOW LATE AFTERNOON
MODIFICATION EXPECTED MAINLY NEAR THE COAST ON SUN DUE TO LOCAL SEA
BREEZE CIRC...HOWEVER CONDITIONS WILL HEIGHTEN FIRE WX SENSITIVITY
AREAWIDE THIS WEEKEND. GRADUAL MODIFICATION CONTINUES MON ONWARD AS
S-SE FLOW ON BACKSIDE OF RETREATING HIGH TAKE HOLD.

&&

.CLIMATE...NEAR RECORD LOWS THIS MORNING IN VRB AND MLB/VRB FOR SAT
MORNING. RECORDS LOOK OUT OF REACH ELSEWHERE.

RECORD LOWS FOR FRI MAY 6:
DAB  42 1940
MCO  49 1945
MLB  49 1963
VRB  52 1973

RECORD LOWS FOR SAT MAY 7:
DAB  45 1940
MCO  49 1921
MLB  53 1992
VRB  52 2013

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  75  56  78  61 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  77  57  81  61 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  77  58  79  62 /   0   0   0   0
VRB  78  56  79  60 /   0   0   0   0
LEE  77  56  81  61 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  77  56  81  60 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  78  59  81  63 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  78  54  79  59 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...SEDLOCK
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX/DSS....CRISTALDI





000
FXUS62 KMLB 060723
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
320 AM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...

...UNSEASONABLY COOL THIS MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

CURRENT...ANOTHER REINFORCING COOL FRONT IS PASSING THROUGH ECFL
EARLY THIS MORNING AS WITNESSED BY WIND SHIFT FROM WEST TO NORTHWEST
AND ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY BY A THIN CLOUD LINE. THIS WEAK
BOUNDARY WILL USHER IN DRIER/COOLER AIR ACROSS THE AREA IN ITS WAKE.
SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR ASIDE FROM A FEW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED ALONG
THE FRONT. LOW TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BOTTOM OUT IN
THE 50S AREAWIDE...GENERALLY 5-10 DEGREES LOWER THAN SEASONAL NORMS.

TODAY-TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE ARKLATEX REGION WILL
SLIDE SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES A BIT TODAY AS WNW/NW WINDS INCREASE IN THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON TO AROUND 15 MPH WITH OCNL HIGHER GUSTS EXPECTED.
THE WIND COMPONENT MAY VEER AROUND TO NNE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON
ALONG THE VOLUSIA COAST. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY WITH NO
THREAT FOR RAIN. ALOFT...A VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD WILL MOVE ONLY SLIGHTLY EASTWARD SENDING OCNL IMPULSES
ACROSS THE AREA. UNSEASONABLY COOL WITH HIGHS MAINLY 70S AREAWIDE.
OVERNIGHT LOWS STILL BELOW SEASONAL AND GENERALLY IN THE L-M
50S...EXCEPT U50S POSSIBLE ACROSS LARGER METROPOLITAN AREAS OR ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE SPACE/TREASURE COASTS. ANOTHER WEAK BACKDOOR COOL
FRONT WILL BRUSH THE LOCAL COASTAL WATERS LATE OVERNIGHT. THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN TOO DRY/STABLE TO PRODUCE ANY PRECIPITATION
OVER LAND.

SAT-TUE...AXIS OF THE DEEP WRN ATLC TROUGH SHIFTS EWD SAT AS THE
OMEGA BLOCK TO THE NORTH BREAKS DOWN. THIS ALLOWS A MID LEVEL RIDGE
TO BUILD EWD ACROSS FL FROM THE GOMEX AND REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER THE
AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS OVER FL INTO THIS
WEEKEND KEEPING CONDS WX WARM AND DRY BUT NOT TERRIBLY HUMID. HIGH
WILL THEN SLIDE EWD WITH ITS AXIS REMAINING OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA
THROUGH EARLY MON THEN LIFT NORTH OF CTRL FL TUE....RESULTING IN A
TREND TWD MORE HUMID CONDS. ONE MORE DAY/NIGHT OF SLIGHTLY COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPS SAT. MAXES NEAR TO A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE NORMAL
EARLY EXT WEEK WITH MINS RUNNING ABOUT 1-2 CATEGORIES ABOVE CLIMO.
ECFL NORMALS FOR EARLY MAY ARE ABOUT 85-88F/63-66F.

WED-FRI...FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK...A COUPLE WEAK MID LEVEL
PERTURBATIONS BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE ALOFT WITH LIGHT SE/SRLY FLOW AND
INCREASING MOISTURE ALLOWING FOR A SLGT CHANCE OF DIURNAL SHRA/TS BY
THU (IF NOT WED) PERHAPS A BIT HIGHER BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPS
REMAIN NEAR OR SLGTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. WNW/NW WINDS 5-10 KTS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
INCREASE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON TO 10-15 KTS WITH SOME HIGHER
GUSTS. WINDS FALL TO LIGHT AGAIN THIS EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...TODAY-TONIGHT...THE LATEST WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA VERY EARLY THIS MORNING WITH ELEVATED NW WINDS 15-
20 KTS CONTINUING OVER THE OPEN ATLC...THOUGH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES THROUGH THE DAY WITH WIND SPEEDS DECREASING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH WILL PASS DOWN THE
COASTAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT WITH WNW/NW WINDS INCREASING TOWARDS
CAUTIONARY CRITERIA ONCE AGAIN. SEAS STARTING 3-4 FT NEAR SHORE AND
5-6 FT OFFSHORE WILL SUBSIDE TO 2-3 FT NEAR SHORE AND AROUND 4 FT
OFFSHORE BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

SAT-TUE...NW-NRLY FLOW WILL DECREASE AS SFC RIDGE BUILDS INTO FL
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. SEAS OF 3-4FT WILL SUBSIDE TO 2-3FT AS WINDS
DROP AOB 10KT. WINDS WILL TURN LIGHT SRLY MON THEN BACK TO SE AND
INCREASE TO 10-15KT TUE AS RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS NORTH OF CTRL FL. SEAS
OF 2-3FT MON INCREASING BACK TO 3-4FT INTO TUE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...TODAY...SEVERAL HOURS OF RH`S BETWEEN 25 TO 35 PCT
FROM LATE THIS MORNING THRU THE AFTERNOON AREAWIDE.  NO RAIN IN THE
FORECAST AND WILL SEE ERC VALUES SLOWLY INCREASE BUT THEY SHOULD
REMAIN TOO LOW FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS. 20FT WINDS FROM THE NW AT
10-15 MPH.

SAT-TUE...SEVERAL HOURS OF CRITICALLY LOW RH VALUES EXPECTED AGAIN
SAT AS HIGH PRES RIDGE AND DRY AIR HOLD SWAY. SHALLOW LATE AFTERNOON
MODIFICATION EXPECTED MAINLY NEAR THE COAST ON SUN DUE TO LOCAL SEA
BREEZE CIRC...HOWEVER CONDITIONS WILL HEIGHTEN FIRE WX SENSITIVITY
AREAWIDE THIS WEEKEND. GRADUAL MODIFICATION CONTINUES MON ONWARD AS
S-SE FLOW ON BACKSIDE OF RETREATING HIGH TAKE HOLD.

&&

.CLIMATE...NEAR RECORD LOWS THIS MORNING IN VRB AND MLB/VRB FOR SAT
MORNING. RECORDS LOOK OUT OF REACH ELSEWHERE.

RECORD LOWS FOR FRI MAY 6:
DAB  42 1940
MCO  49 1945
MLB  49 1963
VRB  52 1973

RECORD LOWS FOR SAT MAY 7:
DAB  45 1940
MCO  49 1921
MLB  53 1992
VRB  52 2013

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  75  56  78  61 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  77  57  81  61 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  77  58  79  62 /   0   0   0   0
VRB  78  56  79  60 /   0   0   0   0
LEE  77  56  81  61 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  77  56  81  60 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  78  59  81  63 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  78  54  79  59 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...SEDLOCK
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX/DSS....CRISTALDI





000
FXUS62 KMLB 060142
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
942 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.DISCUSSION...LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BECOME N/NW INTO TONIGHT
BEHIND A PASSING REINFORCING FRONTAL TROUGH. THIS WILL USHER IN
DRIER/COOLER AIR ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH SKIES REMAINING
CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S OVER MUCH
OF THE REGION. W/NW SFC WINDS HAVE DECREASED AFTER SUNSET AND
SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH INTO TONIGHT TO AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH.
MADE ONLY A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...
OTHERWISE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

FRI...THE OMEGA BLOCK SHIFTS SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST. THE LOW
CURRENTLY EAST OF THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS ELONGATES AND
LIFTS A LITTLE TO THE NORTHEAST WITH CENTERS OFF THE OUTER BANKS
AND CAPE COD. THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTER THIRD OF THE U.S.
ALSO SHIFTS SOME TO THE EAST. END RESULT...STILL NORTHWEST WINDS
AND DRY COOLER AIR ADVECTION INTO FLORIDA. SINGLE DIGIT POP AND
SEVERAL HOURS OF LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE AFTERNOON.

SAT-SAT NIGHT...UPPER TROUGHING FINALLY WEAKENS AND PUSHES EAST
AWAY FROM THE REGION RESULTING IN DEEP LAYER NW FLOW. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES FURTHER EASTWARD AND WILL LIE ACROSS THE FL
PENINSULA SAT OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY WITH MAINLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS. TEMPS WILL SLOWLY MODERATE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S COAST/LOWER 80S INLAND AND LOWS IN THE U50S/L60S.

SUN-THU...SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT PASSES ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUN
WITH SW/W FLOW ALOFT PAST MID-WEEK. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL TRANSITION FURTHER EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLC ON SUN WITH
RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA MON-EARLY TUE...LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH
MID-WEEK. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK WITH
WINDS BECOMING ONSHORE. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP PRECIPITATION OUT
OF THE FORECAST THRU TUE NIGHT. THE GFS SUGGESTS A SLIGHT
MOISTURE INCREASE OVER THE AREA ON WED-THU WITH ONLY A SMALL (20
PERCENT OR LESS) CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 80S/NEAR 90 DURING THIS
PERIOD WITH MID 80S CLOSE TO THE COAST. LOWS WILL ALSO BE
MILDER...MODERATING BACK INTO THE 60S AREAWIDE.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...WILL ALLOW SCA TO EXPIRE THIS EVENING...BUT WILL STILL
NEED EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
OVERNIGHT FOR NW WINDS AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND SEAS UP TO 6 FEET
OFFSHORE.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLAGLER
     BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-SEBASTIAN
     INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE
     TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.

&&

$$

WEITLICH/LASCODY





000
FXUS62 KMLB 051940
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
340 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.DISCUSSION...

...UNSEASONABLY COOL TONIGHT AND FRI NIGHT...

TONIGHT...CIRCULATIONS AROUND LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OFF CAPE
HATTERAS AND HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM WISCONSIN TO TEXAS
PRODUCING A DRY COOL NORTHWEST WIND. BOTH THE MORNING SOUNDINGS
FROM CAPE CANAVERAL AND TAMPA SHOW NORTHWEST TO WEST WINDS THROUGH
THE ENTIRE FLIGHT/SOUNDING. THE 915MHZ VERTICAL WIND PROFILERS
AT/AROUND THE KENNEDY SPACE CENTER SHOWING NORTHWEST WINDS AT 20
TO 30 KNOTS SURFACE TO 10000 FEET.

ALOFT THE LATEST RUC40 500MB ANALYSIS SHOWS UPPER LOWS/TROUGHING
OFF THE U.S. WEST COAST AND DOWN THE U.S. EAST COAST WITH A VERY
STRONG RIDGE FROM OLD MEXICO TO THE CANADIAN PLAINS...OMEGA BLOCK
PATTERN.

THE OMEGA BLOCK MOVES LITTLE IF ANY OVERNIGHT SO THE CURRENT
SYNOPTIC SCALE PICTURE SHOULD CHANGE LITTLE IF ANY.

DAYTIME CU DISSIPATES DURING THE EVENING. MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLEAR
SKIES SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY FALL DURING THE EVENING
THEN MORE SLOWLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. IF WIND GOES LIGHT/CALM COULD
SHAVE A DEGREE OR TWO OFF GUIDANCE MOST AREAS. HOWEVER...IF WIND
STAYS 5 TO 10 MPH OR MORE GUIDANCE MAY BE THE BETTER BET.

FRI...THE OMEGA BLOCK SHIFTS SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST. THE LOW
CURRENTLY EAST OF THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS ELONGATES AND
LIFTS A LITTLE TO THE NORTHEAST WITH CENTERS OFF THE OUTER BANKS
AND CAPE COD. THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTER THIRD OF THE U.S.
ALSO SHIFTS SOME TO THE EAST. END RESULT...STILL NORTHWEST WINDS
AND DRY COOLER AIR ADVECTION INTO FLORIDA. SINGLE DIGIT POP AND
SEVERAL HOURS OF LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE AFTERNOON.

SAT-SAT NIGHT...UPPER TROUGHING FINALLY WEAKENS AND PUSHES EAST
AWAY FROM THE REGION RESULTING IN DEEP LAYER NW FLOW. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES FURTHER EASTWARD AND WILL LIE ACROSS THE FL
PENINSULA SAT OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY WITH MAINLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS. TEMPS WILL SLOWLY MODERATE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S COAST/LOWER 80S INLAND AND LOWS IN THE U50S/L60S.

SUN-THU...SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT PASSES ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUN
WITH SW/W FLOW ALOFT PAST MID-WEEK. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL TRANSITION FURTHER EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLC ON SUN WITH
RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA MON-EARLY TUE...LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH
MID-WEEK. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK WITH
WINDS BECOMING ONSHORE. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP PRECIPITATION OUT
OF THE FORECAST THRU TUE NIGHT. THE GFS SUGGESTS A SLIGHT
MOISTURE INCREASE OVER THE AREA ON WED-THU WITH ONLY A SMALL (20
PERCENT OR LESS) CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 80S/NEAR 90 DURING THIS
PERIOD WITH MID 80S CLOSE TO THE COAST. LOWS WILL ALSO BE
MILDER...MODERATING BACK INTO THE 60S AREAWIDE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR. GUSTY NW WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET
(AROUND 8PM) AND ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 5 TO 10 KNOT RANGE
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
BUOYS 009 AND 010 RECORDING NORTHWEST WIND 16 TO 21 KNOTS WITH
GUST TO 27 KNOTS AND SEAS 5 TO 7 FEET. THE TWO SCRIPPS BUOYS AT 4
AND 6NM OFF THE BEACH WERE RECORDING 2 TO 3 FOOT SEAS. THE CMAN
BUOYS AT PORT CANAVERAL AND SEBASTIAN INLET WERE RECORDING LOWER
NORTHWEST WINDS AT 12 TO 13 KNOTS.

TONIGHT-FRI...NORTHWEST TO WEST WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH 2 TO 4
FOOT SEAS JUST OFF THE BEACH BUILDING TO 7 FEET OR MORE WELL
OFFSHORE WHERE THE WIND FETCH HAS BUILT HIGHER SEAS.

SAT-MON...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH GULF COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD EASTWARD PASSING ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND
INTO THE WESTERN ATLC ON SUN WITH RIDGE AXIS OVER THE CENTRAL
PENINSULA ON MON. A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WILL SWING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE WATERS FRI OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SAT WITH WNW/NW WINDS
INCREASING ONCE AGAIN. CONDITIONS IMPROVE FROM SAT AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. MAINLY PRECIPITATION FREE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

CAUTIONARY CONDITIONS MAY RETURN AGAIN FRI OVERNIGHT INTO SAT
MORNING DUE TO GUSTY WNW/NW WINDS. SEAS 3-4 FT NEAR SHORE/5-6 FT
OFFSHORE ON FALLING TO 2-3 FT NEAR SHORE/3-4 FT OFFSHORE BY FRI
EVENING LASTING THRU SAT...THEN AOB 3 FT SAT NIGHT-SUN.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FRI-SAT...SEVERAL HOURS OF RH AT OR BELOW 35 PERCENT WEST OF
INTERSTATE 95. NO RAIN IN THE FORECAST AND WILL SEE ERC VALUES
SLOWLY INCREASE BUT THEY SHOULD REMAIN TOO LOW FOR RED FLAG
CONDITIONS. 20-FT WINDS FROM THE NW 10-15 MPH BOTH DAYS.

SUN...SLOW MOISTURE RECOVERY WITH MIN RH`S OVER THE INTERIOR NEAR
35 PERCENT. ERC VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO CREEP UPWARD WITH NO
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.CLIMATE...
NEAR RECORD LOWS IN VRB TONIGHT AND MLB/VRB FRI NIGHT. RECORDS
LOOK OUT OF REACH ELSEWHERE.

RECORD LOWS FOR FRI MAY 6:
DAB  42 1940
MCO  49 1945
MLB  49 1963
VRB  52 1973

RECORD LOWS FOR SAT MAY 7:
DAB  45 1940
MCO  49 1921
MLB  53 1992
VRB  52 2013


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  51  75  56  79 /  10  10   0   0
MCO  56  79  57  81 /  10  10   0   0
MLB  53  78  58  80 /   0  10   0   0
VRB  53  79  55  80 /   0  10   0   0
LEE  54  78  56  81 /  10   0   0   0
SFB  54  77  56  80 /  10  10   0   0
ORL  58  78  60  81 /  10  10   0   0
FPR  52  81  54  80 /   0  10  10   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     VOLUSIA COUNTY-INLAND VOLUSIA COUNTY-NORTHERN BREVARD
     COUNTY-NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-
     SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLAGLER
     BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-SEBASTIAN
     INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE
     TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WIMMER
LONG TERM....KELLY





000
FXUS62 KMLB 051334
AFDMLB

AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
930 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.DISCUSSION...
...UNSEASONALLY COOL TONIGHT AND FRI NIGHT...

THIS AFTERNOON...CIRCULATIONS AROUND LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OFF CAPE
HATTERAS AND HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM WISCONSIN TO TEXAS PRODUCING
A DRY COOL NORTHWEST WIND. BOTH THE MORNING SOUNDINGS FROM CAPE
CANAVERAL AND TAMPA SHOW NORTHWEST TO WEST WINDS THROUGH THE ENTIRE
FLIGHT/SOUNDING. THE 915MHZ VERTICAL WIND PROFILERS AT/AROUND THE
KENNEDY SPACE CENTER SHOWING NORTHWEST WINDS AT 20 TO 30 KNOTS SURFACE
TO 10000 FEET.

LATEST RUC40 500MB ANALYSIS SHOWS UPPER LOWS/TROUGHING OFF THE U.S.
WEST COAST AND DOWN THE U.S. EAST COAST WITH A VERY STRONG RIDGE
FROM OLD MEXICO TO THE CANADIAN PLAINS (OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN.

THE OMEGA BLOCK MOVES LITTLE IF ANY TODAY/AFTERNOON SO CURRENT SYNOPTIC
SCALE PICTURE SHOULD CHANGE LITTLE IF ANY.

MOST RECENT WEATHER ROUNDUP (9AM) SHOWS DEW POINTS IN THE 50S AND
NORTHWEST WINDS AVERAGING 10 TO 15 MPH. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD
BE INCREASING SHORTLY AS THE WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE MIX DOWN.
THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY A GOOD CALL.

CURRENT ZONES SHOW THE WIND INCREASE. UPDATE TO MAINLY POLISH WORDING.

.AVIATION...VFR. NW WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25
KNOTS FROM LATE MORNING TO SUNSET. GUSTY WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH SHORTLY
AFTER SUNSET (AROUND 8PM).

.MARINE...BUOYS 009 AND 010 RECORDING NORTHWEST WINDS17 TO 19 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS 23 TO 25 KNOTS AND 5.6 FEET AND 7 FEET RESPECTIVELY. THE TWO
SCRIPPS BUOYS AT 4 AND 6NM OFF THE BEACH WERE RECORDING 2 AND 4 FEET
RESPECTIVELY. THE CMAN BUOYS AT PORT CANAVERAL AND SEBASTIAN INLET WERE
RECORDING LOWER NORTHWEST WINDS AT 9 AND 14 KNOTS.

NUDGED WINDS OVER WATER A COUPLE OF KNOTS TO MATCH CURRENT REPORTS BUT
STAYED 20 KNOTS OR LESS FOR THE AFTERNOON.

.FIRE WEATHER...
TODAY...DRYER AFTERNOON RHS WL BE TEMPERED BY RAIN WETTED FUELS
AND CRITICAL CONDS ARE NOT FORECAST.

FRI-SAT...SEVERAL HOURS OF RH AT OR BELOW 35 PERCENT WEST OF
INTERSTATE 95. NO RAIN IN THE FORECAST AND WILL SEE ERC VALUES
SLOWLY INCREASE. 20-FT WINDS 10-15 MPH ON FRI OUT OF THE WNW/NW.

SUN...SLOW MOISTURE RECOVERY WITH MIN RH`S OVER THE INTERIOR IN THE
M30S TO AROUND 40PCT. ERC NUMBERS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE WITH NO
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST.

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS WILL BE APPROACHED IN VRB TONIGHT AND MLB/VRB FRI
NIGHT.

LOC  DATE  LO-MIN  LO-MAX
DAB 6-MAY 42 1940 73 2003
MCO 6-MAY 49 1945 73 2003
MLB 6-MAY 49 1963 77 2002
VRB 6-MAY 52 1973 75 1956

DAB 7-MAY 45 1940 73 2003
MCO 7-MAY 49 1921 74 1984
MLB 7-MAY 53 1992 72 2003
VRB 7-MAY 52 2013 74 1954

PREVIOUS AFD ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

TODAY AND TONIGHT...WIND AND TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL BE THE ONLY
CHALLENGE OVER THE NEXT 24H AS DRY POST FRONTAL HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN BEHIND DEPARTING FRONT TODAY. AVBL GUID SUGGETS WINDS
WILL PICK UP NOTICEABLY AT MID-MORNING ACROSS MOST ALL THE
FORECAST AREA. HAVE ISSUED A LAKE WIND ADV FOR ALL EXCEPT THE
TREASURE CST AND LAKE OKEE REGION WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS APPROACHING
30 MPH EXPECTED. UNDER SUNNY SKIES TEMPS WILL WARM AROUND 80 TO
84. OVERNIGHT THE COOL DRY AIRMASS WL FALL TO UNSEASONALLY COOL
READINGS WITH 50S FORECAST ACROSS THE AREA ASIDE FROM THE SPACE
AND TREASURE CST BARRIER ISLANDS. AFTERNOON GUSTY CONDITIONS WILL
ABATE AT DUSK.

FRI-FRI NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION
WILL BUILD SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES A BIT THOUGH WNW/NW WINDS WILL STILL INCREASE IN
THE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON TO AROUND 15 MPH WITH OCNL HIGHER GUSTS
EXPECTED. SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR WITH NO THREAT FOR RAIN. A
VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL MOVE ONLY
SLIGHTLY EASTWARD AND WILL SEND OCNL IMPULSES ACROSS THE AREA.
UNSEASONABLY COOL HIGHS WITH MAINLY 70S AREAWIDE. OVERNIGHT LOWS
STILL BELOW SEASONAL AND GENERALLY IN THE 50S. A WEAK BACKDOOR
COOL FRONT WILL JUST BRUSH THE LOCAL COASTAL WATERS LATE FRI
NIGHT. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN TOO DRY/STABLE TO PRODUCE
ANYTHING OVER LAND.

SAT-SAT NIGHT...UPPER TROUGHING FINALLY WEAKENS AND LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION. THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED COOL
FRONT FROM THE PREVIOUS NIGHT WILL REINFORCE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENING IN THE
AFTERNOON. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES FURTHER EASTWARD AND WILL
LIE ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA SAT OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY
WITH MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS. HIGHS REBOUND INTO THE U70S/L80S AND
LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE U50S/L60S.

SUN-THU...SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT PASSES ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUN
WITH SW/W FLOW ALOFT PAST MID-WEEK. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL TRANSITION FURTHER EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLC ON SUN WITH
RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA MON-EARLY TUE...LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH
MID-WEEK. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK WITH
WINDS BECOMING ONSHORE AGAIN ON MON THRU THU. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE FORECAST THRU AT LEAST TUE NIGHT. THE GFS
SUGGESTS MOISTURE INCREASING AGAIN OVER THE AREA ON WED-THU WITH
PERHAPS SMALL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION RETURNING TO THE FORECAST.

HIGH TEMPERATURES QUICKLY CREEP BACK WELL INTO THE 80S TO AROUND 90
DEGREES SUN-WED. LOWS WILL ALSO INCREASE BACK INTO THE 60S AREAWIDE
AGAIN BY AROUND MON.



&&

.AVIATION...
VFR NEXT 24-48H. SFC WND G25-30KTS EXPECTED FM 05/15Z-05/23Z.

&&

.MARINE...
BRISK WLY/NW FLOW OVER THE WATERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING.
THE SCA FOR THE OUTER WATERS WAS EXTENDED THROUGH 10 PM TONIGHT. A
CAUTION WL BE ADVERTISED NEAR SHORE WITH CHOPPY SEAS AS ONE
DEPARTS FROM THE IMMEDIATE CST. WV HGHTS NEAR 6-7 FT MAINLY BEYOND
15 NM FROM THE CST DUE TO THE FETCH LIMITED CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH
CHOPPY SEAS WL OCCUR DUE TO SFC WINDS WITHIN 15 NM.

FRI-MON...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH GULF COAST WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD EASTWARD PASSING ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND INTO THE
WESTERN ATLC ON SUN WITH RIDGE AXIS OVER THE CENTRAL PENINSULA ON
MON. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT THRU EARLY FRI
AFTERNOON BEFORE RELAXING...BUT THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS A WEAK
BACKDOOR FRONT WILL SWING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE WATERS FRI OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY SAT WITH WNW/NW WINDS INCREASING ONCE AGAIN. CONDITIONS
IMPROVE FROM SAT AFTERNOON INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MAINLY
PRECIPITATION FREE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

CAUTIONARY CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT OR POTENTIALLY LOW-END SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA FRI MORNING...THEN CAUTIONARY CONDITIONS MAY
RETURN AGAIN FRI OVERNIGHT INTO SAT MORNING DUE TO GUSTY WNW/NW
WINDS.

SEAS 3-4 FT NEAR SHORE/5-6 FT OFFSHORE ON FALLING TO 2-3 FT NEAR
SHORE/3-4 FT OFFSHORE BY FRI EVENING LASTING THRU SAT...THEN AOB 3
FT SAT NIGHT-SUN.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TODAY...DRYER AFTERNOON RHS WL BE TEMPERED BY RAIN WETTED FUELS
AND CRITICAL CONDS ARE NOT FORECAST.

FRI-SAT...SEVERAL HOURS OF RH AT OR BELOW 35 PERCENT WEST OF
INTERSTATE 95. NO RAIN IN THE FORECAST AND WILL SEE ERC VALUES
SLOWLY INCREASE. 20-FT WINDS 10-15 MPH ON FRI OUT OF THE WNW/NW.

SUN...SLOW MOISTURE RECOVERY WITH MIN RH`S OVER THE INTERIOR IN THE
M30S TO AROUND 40PCT. ERC NUMBERS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE WITH NO
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST.

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS WILL BE APPROACHED IN VRB TONIGHT AND MLB/VRB FRI
NIGHT.

LOC  DATE  LO-MIN  LO-MAX
DAB 6-MAY 42 1940 73 2003
MCO 6-MAY 49 1945 73 2003
MLB 6-MAY 49 1963 77 2002
VRB 6-MAY 52 1973 75 1956

DAB 7-MAY 45 1940 73 2003
MCO 7-MAY 49 1921 74 1984
MLB 7-MAY 53 1992 72 2003
VRB 7-MAY 52 2013 74 1954

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  81  52  75  56 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  83  55  77  56 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  83  53  78  55 /   0   0   0  10
VRB  83  53  79  54 /   0   0   0  10
LEE  79  53  75  56 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  80  54  78  56 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  80  57  76  59 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  84  53  80  54 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR COASTAL VOLUSIA COUNTY-INLAND VOLUSIA COUNTY-
     NORTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-
     SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLAGLER
     BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-SEBASTIAN
     INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE
     TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.

&&

$$

IMPACT WX...KELLY
FORECASTS...WIMMER
SHORT TERM...PENDERGRAST
LONG TERM....SEDLOCK





000
FXUS62 KMLB 051334
AFDMLB

AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
930 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.DISCUSSION...
...UNSEASONALLY COOL TONIGHT AND FRI NIGHT...

THIS AFTERNOON...CIRCULATIONS AROUND LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OFF CAPE
HATTERAS AND HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM WISCONSIN TO TEXAS PRODUCING
A DRY COOL NORTHWEST WIND. BOTH THE MORNING SOUNDINGS FROM CAPE
CANAVERAL AND TAMPA SHOW NORTHWEST TO WEST WINDS THROUGH THE ENTIRE
FLIGHT/SOUNDING. THE 915MHZ VERTICAL WIND PROFILERS AT/AROUND THE
KENNEDY SPACE CENTER SHOWING NORTHWEST WINDS AT 20 TO 30 KNOTS SURFACE
TO 10000 FEET.

LATEST RUC40 500MB ANALYSIS SHOWS UPPER LOWS/TROUGHING OFF THE U.S.
WEST COAST AND DOWN THE U.S. EAST COAST WITH A VERY STRONG RIDGE
FROM OLD MEXICO TO THE CANADIAN PLAINS (OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN.

THE OMEGA BLOCK MOVES LITTLE IF ANY TODAY/AFTERNOON SO CURRENT SYNOPTIC
SCALE PICTURE SHOULD CHANGE LITTLE IF ANY.

MOST RECENT WEATHER ROUNDUP (9AM) SHOWS DEW POINTS IN THE 50S AND
NORTHWEST WINDS AVERAGING 10 TO 15 MPH. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD
BE INCREASING SHORTLY AS THE WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE MIX DOWN.
THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY A GOOD CALL.

CURRENT ZONES SHOW THE WIND INCREASE. UPDATE TO MAINLY POLISH WORDING.

.AVIATION...VFR. NW WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25
KNOTS FROM LATE MORNING TO SUNSET. GUSTY WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH SHORTLY
AFTER SUNSET (AROUND 8PM).

.MARINE...BUOYS 009 AND 010 RECORDING NORTHWEST WINDS17 TO 19 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS 23 TO 25 KNOTS AND 5.6 FEET AND 7 FEET RESPECTIVELY. THE TWO
SCRIPPS BUOYS AT 4 AND 6NM OFF THE BEACH WERE RECORDING 2 AND 4 FEET
RESPECTIVELY. THE CMAN BUOYS AT PORT CANAVERAL AND SEBASTIAN INLET WERE
RECORDING LOWER NORTHWEST WINDS AT 9 AND 14 KNOTS.

NUDGED WINDS OVER WATER A COUPLE OF KNOTS TO MATCH CURRENT REPORTS BUT
STAYED 20 KNOTS OR LESS FOR THE AFTERNOON.

.FIRE WEATHER...
TODAY...DRYER AFTERNOON RHS WL BE TEMPERED BY RAIN WETTED FUELS
AND CRITICAL CONDS ARE NOT FORECAST.

FRI-SAT...SEVERAL HOURS OF RH AT OR BELOW 35 PERCENT WEST OF
INTERSTATE 95. NO RAIN IN THE FORECAST AND WILL SEE ERC VALUES
SLOWLY INCREASE. 20-FT WINDS 10-15 MPH ON FRI OUT OF THE WNW/NW.

SUN...SLOW MOISTURE RECOVERY WITH MIN RH`S OVER THE INTERIOR IN THE
M30S TO AROUND 40PCT. ERC NUMBERS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE WITH NO
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST.

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS WILL BE APPROACHED IN VRB TONIGHT AND MLB/VRB FRI
NIGHT.

LOC  DATE  LO-MIN  LO-MAX
DAB 6-MAY 42 1940 73 2003
MCO 6-MAY 49 1945 73 2003
MLB 6-MAY 49 1963 77 2002
VRB 6-MAY 52 1973 75 1956

DAB 7-MAY 45 1940 73 2003
MCO 7-MAY 49 1921 74 1984
MLB 7-MAY 53 1992 72 2003
VRB 7-MAY 52 2013 74 1954

PREVIOUS AFD ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

TODAY AND TONIGHT...WIND AND TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL BE THE ONLY
CHALLENGE OVER THE NEXT 24H AS DRY POST FRONTAL HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN BEHIND DEPARTING FRONT TODAY. AVBL GUID SUGGETS WINDS
WILL PICK UP NOTICEABLY AT MID-MORNING ACROSS MOST ALL THE
FORECAST AREA. HAVE ISSUED A LAKE WIND ADV FOR ALL EXCEPT THE
TREASURE CST AND LAKE OKEE REGION WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS APPROACHING
30 MPH EXPECTED. UNDER SUNNY SKIES TEMPS WILL WARM AROUND 80 TO
84. OVERNIGHT THE COOL DRY AIRMASS WL FALL TO UNSEASONALLY COOL
READINGS WITH 50S FORECAST ACROSS THE AREA ASIDE FROM THE SPACE
AND TREASURE CST BARRIER ISLANDS. AFTERNOON GUSTY CONDITIONS WILL
ABATE AT DUSK.

FRI-FRI NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION
WILL BUILD SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES A BIT THOUGH WNW/NW WINDS WILL STILL INCREASE IN
THE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON TO AROUND 15 MPH WITH OCNL HIGHER GUSTS
EXPECTED. SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR WITH NO THREAT FOR RAIN. A
VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL MOVE ONLY
SLIGHTLY EASTWARD AND WILL SEND OCNL IMPULSES ACROSS THE AREA.
UNSEASONABLY COOL HIGHS WITH MAINLY 70S AREAWIDE. OVERNIGHT LOWS
STILL BELOW SEASONAL AND GENERALLY IN THE 50S. A WEAK BACKDOOR
COOL FRONT WILL JUST BRUSH THE LOCAL COASTAL WATERS LATE FRI
NIGHT. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN TOO DRY/STABLE TO PRODUCE
ANYTHING OVER LAND.

SAT-SAT NIGHT...UPPER TROUGHING FINALLY WEAKENS AND LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION. THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED COOL
FRONT FROM THE PREVIOUS NIGHT WILL REINFORCE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENING IN THE
AFTERNOON. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES FURTHER EASTWARD AND WILL
LIE ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA SAT OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY
WITH MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS. HIGHS REBOUND INTO THE U70S/L80S AND
LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE U50S/L60S.

SUN-THU...SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT PASSES ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUN
WITH SW/W FLOW ALOFT PAST MID-WEEK. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL TRANSITION FURTHER EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLC ON SUN WITH
RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA MON-EARLY TUE...LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH
MID-WEEK. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK WITH
WINDS BECOMING ONSHORE AGAIN ON MON THRU THU. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE FORECAST THRU AT LEAST TUE NIGHT. THE GFS
SUGGESTS MOISTURE INCREASING AGAIN OVER THE AREA ON WED-THU WITH
PERHAPS SMALL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION RETURNING TO THE FORECAST.

HIGH TEMPERATURES QUICKLY CREEP BACK WELL INTO THE 80S TO AROUND 90
DEGREES SUN-WED. LOWS WILL ALSO INCREASE BACK INTO THE 60S AREAWIDE
AGAIN BY AROUND MON.



&&

.AVIATION...
VFR NEXT 24-48H. SFC WND G25-30KTS EXPECTED FM 05/15Z-05/23Z.

&&

.MARINE...
BRISK WLY/NW FLOW OVER THE WATERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING.
THE SCA FOR THE OUTER WATERS WAS EXTENDED THROUGH 10 PM TONIGHT. A
CAUTION WL BE ADVERTISED NEAR SHORE WITH CHOPPY SEAS AS ONE
DEPARTS FROM THE IMMEDIATE CST. WV HGHTS NEAR 6-7 FT MAINLY BEYOND
15 NM FROM THE CST DUE TO THE FETCH LIMITED CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH
CHOPPY SEAS WL OCCUR DUE TO SFC WINDS WITHIN 15 NM.

FRI-MON...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH GULF COAST WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD EASTWARD PASSING ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND INTO THE
WESTERN ATLC ON SUN WITH RIDGE AXIS OVER THE CENTRAL PENINSULA ON
MON. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT THRU EARLY FRI
AFTERNOON BEFORE RELAXING...BUT THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS A WEAK
BACKDOOR FRONT WILL SWING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE WATERS FRI OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY SAT WITH WNW/NW WINDS INCREASING ONCE AGAIN. CONDITIONS
IMPROVE FROM SAT AFTERNOON INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MAINLY
PRECIPITATION FREE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

CAUTIONARY CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT OR POTENTIALLY LOW-END SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA FRI MORNING...THEN CAUTIONARY CONDITIONS MAY
RETURN AGAIN FRI OVERNIGHT INTO SAT MORNING DUE TO GUSTY WNW/NW
WINDS.

SEAS 3-4 FT NEAR SHORE/5-6 FT OFFSHORE ON FALLING TO 2-3 FT NEAR
SHORE/3-4 FT OFFSHORE BY FRI EVENING LASTING THRU SAT...THEN AOB 3
FT SAT NIGHT-SUN.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TODAY...DRYER AFTERNOON RHS WL BE TEMPERED BY RAIN WETTED FUELS
AND CRITICAL CONDS ARE NOT FORECAST.

FRI-SAT...SEVERAL HOURS OF RH AT OR BELOW 35 PERCENT WEST OF
INTERSTATE 95. NO RAIN IN THE FORECAST AND WILL SEE ERC VALUES
SLOWLY INCREASE. 20-FT WINDS 10-15 MPH ON FRI OUT OF THE WNW/NW.

SUN...SLOW MOISTURE RECOVERY WITH MIN RH`S OVER THE INTERIOR IN THE
M30S TO AROUND 40PCT. ERC NUMBERS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE WITH NO
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST.

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS WILL BE APPROACHED IN VRB TONIGHT AND MLB/VRB FRI
NIGHT.

LOC  DATE  LO-MIN  LO-MAX
DAB 6-MAY 42 1940 73 2003
MCO 6-MAY 49 1945 73 2003
MLB 6-MAY 49 1963 77 2002
VRB 6-MAY 52 1973 75 1956

DAB 7-MAY 45 1940 73 2003
MCO 7-MAY 49 1921 74 1984
MLB 7-MAY 53 1992 72 2003
VRB 7-MAY 52 2013 74 1954

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  81  52  75  56 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  83  55  77  56 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  83  53  78  55 /   0   0   0  10
VRB  83  53  79  54 /   0   0   0  10
LEE  79  53  75  56 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  80  54  78  56 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  80  57  76  59 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  84  53  80  54 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR COASTAL VOLUSIA COUNTY-INLAND VOLUSIA COUNTY-
     NORTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-
     SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLAGLER
     BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-SEBASTIAN
     INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE
     TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.

&&

$$

IMPACT WX...KELLY
FORECASTS...WIMMER
SHORT TERM...PENDERGRAST
LONG TERM....SEDLOCK





000
FXUS62 KMLB 050727
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
327 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.DISCUSSION...
...UNSEASONALLY COOL TONIGHT AND FRI NIGHT...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...WIND AND TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL BE THE ONLY
CHALLENGE OVER THE NEXT 24H AS DRY POST FRONTAL HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN BEHIND DEPARTING FRONT TODAY. AVBL GUID SUGGETS WINDS
WILL PICK UP NOTICEABLY AT MID-MORNING ACROSS MOST ALL THE
FORECAST AREA. HAVE ISSUED A LAKE WIND ADV FOR ALL EXCEPT THE
TREASURE CST AND LAKE OKEE REGION WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS APPROACHING
30 MPH EXPECTED. UNDER SUNNY SKIES TEMPS WILL WARM AROUND 80 TO
84. OVERNIGHT THE COOL DRY AIRMASS WL FALL TO UNSEASONALLY COOL
READINGS WITH 50S FORECAST ACROSS THE AREA ASIDE FROM THE SPACE
AND TREASURE CST BARRIER ISLANDS. AFTERNOON GUSTY CONDITIONS WILL
ABATE AT DUSK.

FRI-FRI NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION
WILL BUILD SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES A BIT THOUGH WNW/NW WINDS WILL STILL INCREASE IN
THE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON TO AROUND 15 MPH WITH OCNL HIGHER GUSTS
EXPECTED. SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR WITH NO THREAT FOR RAIN. A
VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL MOVE ONLY
SLIGHTLY EASTWARD AND WILL SEND OCNL IMPULSES ACROSS THE AREA.
UNSEASONABLY COOL HIGHS WITH MAINLY 70S AREAWIDE. OVERNIGHT LOWS
STILL BELOW SEASONAL AND GENERALLY IN THE 50S. A WEAK BACKDOOR
COOL FRONT WILL JUST BRUSH THE LOCAL COASTAL WATERS LATE FRI
NIGHT. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN TOO DRY/STABLE TO PRODUCE
ANYTHING OVER LAND.

SAT-SAT NIGHT...UPPER TROUGHING FINALLY WEAKENS AND LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION. THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED COOL
FRONT FROM THE PREVIOUS NIGHT WILL REINFORCE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENING IN THE
AFTERNOON. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES FURTHER EASTWARD AND WILL
LIE ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA SAT OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY
WITH MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS. HIGHS REBOUND INTO THE U70S/L80S AND
LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE U50S/L60S.

SUN-THU...SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT PASSES ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUN
WITH SW/W FLOW ALOFT PAST MID-WEEK. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL TRANSITION FURTHER EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLC ON SUN WITH
RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA MON-EARLY TUE...LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH
MID-WEEK. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK WITH
WINDS BECOMING ONSHORE AGAIN ON MON THRU THU. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE FORECAST THRU AT LEAST TUE NIGHT. THE GFS
SUGGESTS MOISTURE INCREASING AGAIN OVER THE AREA ON WED-THU WITH
PERHAPS SMALL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION RETURNING TO THE FORECAST.

HIGH TEMPERATURES QUICKLY CREEP BACK WELL INTO THE 80S TO AROUND 90
DEGREES SUN-WED. LOWS WILL ALSO INCREASE BACK INTO THE 60S AREAWIDE
AGAIN BY AROUND MON.



&&

.AVIATION...
VFR NEXT 24-48H. SFC WND G25-30KTS EXPECTED FM 05/15Z-05/23Z.

&&

.MARINE...
BRISK WLY/NW FLOW OVER THE WATERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING.
THE SCA FOR THE OUTER WATERS WAS EXTENDED THROUGH 10 PM TONIGHT. A
CAUTION WL BE ADVERTISED NEAR SHORE WITH CHOPPY SEAS AS ONE
DEPARTS FROM THE IMMEDIATE CST. WV HGHTS NEAR 6-7 FT MAINLY BEYOND
15 NM FROM THE CST DUE TO THE FETCH LIMITED CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH
CHOPPY SEAS WL OCCUR DUE TO SFC WINDS WITHIN 15 NM.

FRI-MON...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH GULF COAST WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD EASTWARD PASSING ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND INTO THE
WESTERN ATLC ON SUN WITH RIDGE AXIS OVER THE CENTRAL PENINSULA ON
MON. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT THRU EARLY FRI
AFTERNOON BEFORE RELAXING...BUT THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS A WEAK
BACKDOOR FRONT WILL SWING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE WATERS FRI OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY SAT WITH WNW/NW WINDS INCREASING ONCE AGAIN. CONDITIONS
IMPROVE FROM SAT AFTERNOON INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MAINLY
PRECIPITATION FREE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

CAUTIONARY CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT OR POTENTIALLY LOW-END SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA FRI MORNING...THEN CAUTIONARY CONDITIONS MAY
RETURN AGAIN FRI OVERNIGHT INTO SAT MORNING DUE TO GUSTY WNW/NW
WINDS.

SEAS 3-4 FT NEAR SHORE/5-6 FT OFFSHORE ON FALLING TO 2-3 FT NEAR
SHORE/3-4 FT OFFSHORE BY FRI EVENING LASTING THRU SAT...THEN AOB 3
FT SAT NIGHT-SUN.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TODAY...DRYER AFTERNOON RHS WL BE TEMPERED BY RAIN WETTED FUELS
AND CRITICAL CONDS ARE NOT FORECAST.

FRI-SAT...SEVERAL HOURS OF RH AT OR BELOW 35 PERCENT WEST OF
INTERSTATE 95. NO RAIN IN THE FORECAST AND WILL SEE ERC VALUES
SLOWLY INCREASE. 20-FT WINDS 10-15 MPH ON FRI OUT OF THE WNW/NW.

SUN...SLOW MOISTURE RECOVERY WITH MIN RH`S OVER THE INTERIOR IN THE
M30S TO AROUND 40PCT. ERC NUMBERS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE WITH NO
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST.

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS WILL BE APPROACHED IN VRB TONIGHT AND MLB/VRB FRI
NIGHT.

LOC  DATE  LO-MIN  LO-MAX
DAB 6-MAY 42 1940 73 2003
MCO 6-MAY 49 1945 73 2003
MLB 6-MAY 49 1963 77 2002
VRB 6-MAY 52 1973 75 1956

DAB 7-MAY 45 1940 73 2003
MCO 7-MAY 49 1921 74 1984
MLB 7-MAY 53 1992 72 2003
VRB 7-MAY 52 2013 74 1954

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  81  52  75  56 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  83  55  77  56 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  83  53  78  55 /   0   0   0  10
VRB  83  53  79  54 /   0   0   0  10
LEE  79  53  75  56 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  80  54  78  56 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  80  57  76  59 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  84  53  80  54 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR COASTAL VOLUSIA COUNTY-INLAND VOLUSIA COUNTY-
     NORTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-
     SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLAGLER
     BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-SEBASTIAN
     INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE
     TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PENDERGRAST
LONG TERM....SEDLOCK





000
FXUS62 KMLB 050148
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
948 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS GRADUALLY CLEARING OUT
FROM WEST TO EAST AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL PUSH
SOUTHEAST AND THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH DRIER AIR BUILDING
IN BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. RAIN CHANCES WILL END BY LATE TONIGHT
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH CLOUD COVER GRADUALLY CLEARING
OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL IN THE LOW 60S OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA...EXCEPT N/W OF I-4 WHERE UPPER 50S WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR
DAYBREAK THURSDAY. UPDATED THE ZONES TO REFRESH WORDING BASED ON
LATEST SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS ARE SHIFTING EASTWARD AND
WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR THE AREA AROUND TO JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPO
IFR/MVFR CONDS WILL OCCUR WITH SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY AND SOME
LINGERING LOW CLOUD ALONG THE FRONT THROUGH 06Z.

DRIER AIR BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL THEN LEAD TO CLEARING
SKIES BY LATE TONIGHT WITH PREDOMINANT VFR CONDS THEN EXPECTED
THROUGH THURSDAY. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT WITH W/NW WINDS UP TO
15-17 KTS GUSTING TO AROUND 20-25 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...S/SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BECOME W/NW AS FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE WATERS...INCREASING UP TO 20-25 KNOTS OFFSHORE.
THESE WINDS WILL LIKELY BUILD SEAS UP TO 7 FEET IN THE GULF
STREAM. WILL THEREFORE ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE
OFFSHORE WATERS OVERNIGHT...CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY MORNING
THURSDAY FOR THESE HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS. NEARSHORE SMALL
CRAFT WILL STILL WANT TO EXERCISE CAUTION FOR WIND SPEEDS UP TO 15
TO 20 KNOTS.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

WEITLICH/LASCODY





000
FXUS62 KMLB 041922
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
322 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

...TURNING COOLER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...

CURRENT...COLD FRONT BEING ANALYZED FROM AROUND JACKSONVILLE
SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF/NATURE COAST MOVING SLOWLY TO THE
SOUTHEAST. RAP40 ANALYSIS/SHORT TERM GRIDS SHOWING THAT THE JET AXIS
OF A 120 KNOT PLUS JET CORE WAS CROSSING OVER THE BIG BEND NORTHEAST
GULF REGION AND THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF IT WAS MOVING OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. SHORT WAVE TROUGHING DIGGING
SOUTHEAST FROM LOUISIANA TO THE GULF COAST STATES. LEAD STRONG VORT
MAX EXITING CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH ANOTHER ONE JUST CROSSING OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA REGION. THE VERTICAL WIND PROFILERS AT AND
AROUND KENNEDY SPACE CENTER AND AREA DOPPLER RADAR VAD WIND PROFILES
SHOWING DEEP SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW SURFACE TO 15000 FEET OR MORE.
THIS DEEP SOUTHWEST TO WEST WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO FEED/PULL
GULF MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA UNTIL THE TROUGH AXIS CLEARS
THU NIGHT. RAP40 ANALYSIS SHOWED RATHER COOL...-11C TO -12C...MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES THAT WILL KEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEP FOR AT
LEAST THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT. EXTENSIVE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS ALONG WITH PERSISTENT TRAINING OF PREDOMINATELY LIGHT RAIN
THE NEXT 6 OR SO HOURS MAKES FOR A DREARY COMMUTE HOME.

TONIGHT-FRI NIGHT...MODELS INDICATING THAT THE FRONT SHOULD CLEAR
CENTRAL FLORIDA LATE OVERNIGHT/TOWARD SUNRISE THU. TIME HEIGHT CROSS
SECTIONS SHOW NORTHWEST FLOW ADVECTING IN A MUCH DRIER AND COOLER
AIR MASS NORTH TO SOUTH BEING LATE OVERNIGHT WED AND INTO THU.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH GULF OF MEXICO AND SURFACE LOW
OVER THE CAROLINA OUTER BANKS JOIN FORCES TO PRODUCE A LOW LEVEL
NORTHWEST FLOW THAT ADVECTS A VERY DRY AND COOL INTO CENTRAL
FLORIDA. THIS WILL DRIVE DOWN MIN RELATIVE VALUES TO THE LOW AND MID
30S LATE THU THROUGH SAT.

.AVIATION...PREVAILING BKN-OVC040 OR ABOVE. P6SM -RA TIL 05/06 KFPR
AND KSUA. TEMPO BKN030CB TSRA 0418/0422 KFPR KSUA.

.MARINE...SURFACE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA THURSDAY AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND GULF OF MEXICO.
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST THU
AND REMAIN NORTHWEST THROUGH SUN BEFORE SHIFTING BACK TO THE SOUTH


.FIRE WEATHER...COLD FRONT SWEEPING DOWN PENINSULA AND SHOULD BE
CLEARING EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA THURSDAY PER GUIDANCE.

THE NORTHWEST WIND FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. AND THE EXITING COLD FRONT ADVECTS DRIER AND COOLER AIR INTO
CENTRAL FLORIDA STARTING LATE OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY AND LASTING UNTIL
SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH THEN SOUTHEAST ALLOWING
FOR SOME MOISTURE RECOVERY.

SEVERAL HOURS OF AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW THE
CRITICAL VALUE OF 35 PERCENT THROUGH SUNDAY. WINDS STRONGEST
THURSDAY BUT DURATION OF CRITICAL VALUES AND ERC VALUES WOULD BE
HIGHER DUE TO RECENT RAIN PRECLUDE FORMAL FIRE WEATHER WATCHES.

FUTURE SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO INVESTIGATE ISSUING FIRE WEATHER WATCHES
FOR THE INTERIOR WHERE THERE WILL BE SEVERAL HOURS OF RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES 35 PERCENT AND BELOW AND INCREASING ERC VALUES
BECAUSE OF NO RAIN STARTING THURSDAY.

PREVIOUS AFD ISSUED 327 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016


 SAT-WED...UPPER TROUGHING NEAR THE EASTERN SEABOARD  WEAKENS
AND LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH ZONAL FLOW
OVERHEAD RETURNING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE WEST CONTINUES TO WEAKEN GRADUALLY AND WILL SLIDE
EASTWARD ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA ON SUN AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLC.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK WITH WINDS
BECOMING ONSHORE AGAIN ON MON THRU WED. A WEAK BACKDOOR COOL FRONT
WILL SLIDE BY THE AREA/JUST OFFSHORE FRI OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SAT
BUT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN TOO DRY/STABLE TO PRODUCE ANYTHING
OVER LAND. IN FACT...WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE
FORECAST THRU AT LEAST TUE NIGHT. THE GFS SUGGESTS A SLUG OF
MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON WED WITH GREATEST CHANCES
SOUTHWARD FROM ORLANDO IF ANYTHING DOES DEVELOP. ONE MORE DAY FOR
BELOW SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ON SAT...THEN HIGHS QUICKLY CREEP BACK
WELL INTO THE 80S SUN-WED. LOWS WILL ALSO INCREASE BACK INTO THE 60S
AREAWIDE MON-WED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  81  58  82  53 /  90  20  10  10
MCO  80  60  82  56 / 100  20  10  10
MLB  81  60  83  55 / 100  30  10  10
VRB  83  59  83  56 / 100  30  10  10
LEE  82  58  79  54 / 100  20  10   0
SFB  82  61  83  55 / 100  20  10  10
ORL  81  62  82  57 / 100  20  10  10
FPR  83  61  83  56 / 100  30  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  57  81  53  77 /  40   0  10  10
MCO  60  81  57  79 /  40   0  10  10
MLB  59  82  55  77 /  60   0  10  10
VRB  59  82  54  78 /  60   0  10  10
LEE  58  78  54  76 /  20   0  10  10
SFB  60  79  55  79 /  30   0  10  10
ORL  61  81  58  78 /  40   0  10  10
FPR  60  82  55  80 /  60   0  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

IMPACT WX...VOLKMER
FORECASTS...WIMMER





000
FXUS62 KMLB 041422
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1020 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.DISCUSSION...

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS TODAY MAINLY ALONG THE SPACE
AND TREASURE COASTS...

...TURNING COOLER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...

CURRENT...VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE MOVING RAPIDLY EAST OVER THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. AND FLORIDA PANHANDLE WILL SWEEP ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RAP40 ANALYSIS SHOWING STRONG VORTICITY
CORE...AROUND 20 UNITS...CROSSING OVERHEAD AND AN EVEN STRONG CORE
OF 30 PLUS UNITS OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO MOVING QUICKLY
TOWARD THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. JET AXIS OF A 110-120KT JET JUST NORTH
OF CENTRAL FLORIDA. VERTICAL WIND PROFILERS AT THE SPACE CENTER AND
MELBOURNE RADAR VAD WIND PROFILE SHOWING DEEP WEST WIND FLOW FROM
SURFACE TO 25000 FEET PLUS. THE DEEP WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
FEED GULF MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA THE REST OF THE DAY. RAP40
500MB TEMPERATURE ANALYSIS INDICATING TEMPERATURES IN THE
-11C TO -12C RANGE WHICH WILL STEEPEN MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ENHANCING STORM POTENTIAL. EXTENSIVE MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER
MAY HAMPER ANY SEA BREEZE FORMATION BUT IF THERE ARE ANY LONG ENOUGH
BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER SEA BREEZES AT THE COAST MAY BE POSSIBLE.
THE ONSHORE WIND COMPONENT MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR THAT MAY ENHANCE STORM STRENGTH FOR STORMS APPROACHING THE
COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE 04/06ZZ GFS RUN WAS SUGGESTING THAT
THE FRONT CURRENTLY OVER NORTH FLORIDA WILL CLEAR CENTRAL FLORIDA
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

NOT GOING TO MESS WITH CURRENT 85-100 POP FOR AN UPDATE BUT WILL
LOOK TO PAR BACK POP FOR THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.

.AVIATION...MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY IN SHOWERS/STORMS
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OVER 25 KNOTS IN STRONGER CONVECTION. CLEARING
TO VFR NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

.MARINE...

CURRENT... BUOYS INDICATING PREVAILING WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO
20 KNOT OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION/STORMS WHERE GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS
ARE POSSIBLE.

THIS AFTERNOON...SOUTHWEST WIND 15 TO 20 KNOTS AHEAD OF FRONT
CURRENTLY PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND EAST GULF OF MEXICO.
GUSTS 25 TO 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE IN/NEAR STRONG STORMS COMING OFF THE
MAINLAND.

PREVIOUS AFD ISSUED 327 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016


TODAY AND TONIGHT...
AN ENERGETIC DISTURBANCE AND ASCD JET MAXIMA MOVING ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM THE GULF WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED STRONG LIGHTNING STORMS FROM THIS MORNING INTO MID
AFTERNOON. INCREASING WINDS IN THE ATMOSPHERE ALONG WITH PRESENCE
OF AFTERNOON SURFACE BOUNDARIES WILL ALLOW FOR SOME STORMS TO
BECOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE. THE MAIN WINDOW FOR DEVELOPMENT
OF STRONG STORMS WILL BE ROUGHLY MID MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON.

A HIGHER CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT OF LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
ALONG THE EAST COAST FROM CAPE CANAVERAL SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
SPACE AND TREASURE COASTS WHERE AN EAST COAST BREEZE BOUNDARY IS
FORECAST TO BE PRESENT BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL
BE FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...SMALL HAIL AND PERIODS OF
BLINDING RAIN.

A BRIEF TORNADO OR WATER SPOUT WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST
STORMS AS WELL. STORMS WILL MOVE RAPIDLY EAST AT 25 TO 35 MPH.
THIS CONVECTIVE SYSTEM PRECEDES AN APPROACHING LATE SEASON COLD
FRONT...POISED TO QUICKLY CROSS OVER THE AREA LATE TODAY. LATE
AFTERNOON/EVE PCPN WL QUICKLY COME TO AN END WITH PSG OF THE COLD
FRONT AND GRADUAL CLEARING WITH FALLING TEMPS INTO THE U50S TO
AROUND 60 BY DAYBREAK THU.

PERSONS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR WEATHER REPORTS FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF A SEVERE WEATHER WATCH AND OR LOCAL WARNINGS.

THU-THU NIGHT...ALOFT A POTENT TROUGH WILL BE ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. THE PREVIOUS SURFACE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AWAY FROM THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA EARLY IN THE PERIOD. WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN
TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. WNW/NW WINDS WILL BE BREEZY
(15-20 MPH) ON THIS DAY WITH FREQUENT HIGHER GUSTS AND MAY PROMPT
ISSUANCE OF A LAKE WIND ADVISORY. THIS NEW AIRMASS WILL BRING COOLER
AND MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS TO ECFL ABSENT OF ANY PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL STILL MANAGE NEAR 80 DEGREES TO L80S.
UNSEASONABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING INTO
THE 50S AREAWIDE...EXCEPT L60S STILL MANAGEABLE ACROSS SOUTHERN
MARTIN COUNTY.

FRI-FRI NIGHT...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST WITH ITS CENTER NEAR SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES A BIT THOUGH WNW/NW WINDS WILL STILL
INCREASE IN THE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON TO AROUND 15 MPH WITH SOME
HIGHER GUSTS. SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR WITH NO THREAT FOR RAIN. THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ONLY SLIGHTLY EASTWARD AND
WILL REMAIN ALIGNED ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. UNSEASONABLY COOL
HIGHS ON FRI WITH MAINLY 70S AREAWIDE. OVERNIGHT LOWS STILL BELOW
SEASONAL AND GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES.

SAT-WED...UPPER TROUGHING NEAR THE EASTERN SEABOARD FINALLY WEAKENS
AND LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH ZONAL FLOW
OVERHEAD RETURNING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE WEST CONTINUES TO WEAKEN GRADUALLY AND WILL SLIDE
EASTWARD ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA ON SUN AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLC.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK WITH WINDS
BECOMING ONSHORE AGAIN ON MON THRU WED. A WEAK BACKDOOR COOL FRONT
WILL SLIDE BY THE AREA/JUST OFFSHORE FRI OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SAT
BUT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN TOO DRY/STABLE TO PRODUCE ANYTHING
OVER LAND. IN FACT...WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE
FORECAST THRU AT LEAST TUE NIGHT. THE GFS SUGGESTS A SLUG OF
MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON WED WITH GREATEST CHANCES
SOUTHWARD FROM ORLANDO IF ANYTHING DOES DEVELOP. ONE MORE DAY FOR
BELOW SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ON SAT...THEN HIGHS QUICKLY CREEP BACK
WELL INTO THE 80S SUN-WED. LOWS WILL ALSO INCREASE BACK INTO THE 60S
AREAWIDE MON-WED.

&&

.AVIATION...
EARLY DETERIORATING CIGS FROM N-S ASCD WITH THE APCHG WEATHER
SYSTEM WL EVENTUALLY BRING PERIODS OF MVFR/BRIEF IFR ALNG THE I-4
CORRIDOR MNLY FM 04/10Z-04/15Z WITH PERIODS OF IFR ASCD WITH
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TS. DETERIORATING CONDS WITH SCT-NMRS SHRA
AND SCT TS WL SPREAD S AND E DURING THE MORNING AND PERSIST
THROUGH 04/19Z AHD OF THE APCHG COLD FRONT. IFR CONDS WL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY CIGS NR FL 015-025 ALNG W SFC WND G NR 40KT
BRIEFLY.

&&

.MARINE...
WLY WINDS INCREASED IN SPEED DURING THE MORNING WITH LIKELIHOOD OF
OFFSHORE MOVING TS DURING MID MORNING AND INTO THE AFTN HOURS.
LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS MAINLY ASCD WITH OFFSHORE MOVG
STORMS WL PRESENT SPECIFIC HAZARD TO ANY VESSELS OVER THE
INTRACOASTAL AND ATLC WATERS. RAPID EWD MOVEMENT OF STORMS AT 25
TO 35 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED. DETERIORATING OPEN WATER CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE WITH APPROACH AND PSG OF THE LATE SEASON COLD FRONT
LATER TODAY. HEADLINES WILL BE LIKELY FOR WINDS/SEAS OVER A
PORTION OF THE WATERS LATER TODAY.

THU-SUN...POST-FRONTAL CONDITIONS ON THU WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE WEST BUILDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. THE CENTER OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS ON SUN. MAINLY
PRECIPITATION FREE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT ON THU INTO FRI AFTERNOON BEFORE
RELAXING...BUT THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT
WILL SWING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE WATERS FRI OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SAT.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE FROM SAT AFTERNOON INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

CAUTIONARY CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT OR POTENTIALLY LOW-END SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA ON THU INTO FRI MORNING...THEN CAUTIONARY
CONDITIONS MAY RETURN AGAIN FRI OVERNIGHT INTO SAT MORNING DUE TO
GUSTY WNW/NW WINDS.

SEAS 3-4 FT NEAR SHORE/5-6 FT OFFSHORE ON THU...FALLING TO 2-3 FT
NEAR SHORE/3-4 FT OFFSHORE BY FRI EVENING LASTING THRU SAT...THEN
AOB 3 FT SAT NIGHT-SUN.

&&

FIRE WEATHER...
THU...BRISK NWRLY SFC/TRANSPORT FLOW WILL GENERATE STRONG DRY AIR
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT. MIN RH VALUES ARND 30-35PCT INTO THE
INTERIOR.

FRI-SAT...MAY BE THE MOST FIRE SENSITIVE DAYS WITH SEVERAL HOURS OF
RH AT OR BELOW 35 PERCENT WEST OF INTERSTATE 95. NO RAIN IN THE
FORECAST AND WILL SEE ERC VALUES SLOWLY INCREASE.

SUN...SLOW MOISTURE RECOVERY WITH MIN RH/S OVER THE INTERIOR IN THE
M30S TO AROUND 40PCT. ERC NUMBERS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE WITH NO
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  81  58  82  53 /  90  20  10  10
MCO  80  60  82  56 / 100  20  10  10
MLB  81  60  83  55 / 100  30  10  10
VRB  83  59  83  56 / 100  30  10  10
LEE  82  58  79  54 / 100  20  10   0
SFB  82  61  83  55 / 100  20  10  10
ORL  81  62  82  57 / 100  20  10  10
FPR  83  61  83  56 / 100  30  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

RADAR/IMPACT WX...VOLKMER
RADAR...SHARP
PUBLIC DESK...GLITTO
UPDATES/AVIATION...WIMMER





000
FXUS62 KMLB 041422
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1020 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.DISCUSSION...

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS TODAY MAINLY ALONG THE SPACE
AND TREASURE COASTS...

...TURNING COOLER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...

CURRENT...VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE MOVING RAPIDLY EAST OVER THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. AND FLORIDA PANHANDLE WILL SWEEP ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RAP40 ANALYSIS SHOWING STRONG VORTICITY
CORE...AROUND 20 UNITS...CROSSING OVERHEAD AND AN EVEN STRONG CORE
OF 30 PLUS UNITS OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO MOVING QUICKLY
TOWARD THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. JET AXIS OF A 110-120KT JET JUST NORTH
OF CENTRAL FLORIDA. VERTICAL WIND PROFILERS AT THE SPACE CENTER AND
MELBOURNE RADAR VAD WIND PROFILE SHOWING DEEP WEST WIND FLOW FROM
SURFACE TO 25000 FEET PLUS. THE DEEP WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
FEED GULF MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA THE REST OF THE DAY. RAP40
500MB TEMPERATURE ANALYSIS INDICATING TEMPERATURES IN THE
-11C TO -12C RANGE WHICH WILL STEEPEN MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ENHANCING STORM POTENTIAL. EXTENSIVE MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER
MAY HAMPER ANY SEA BREEZE FORMATION BUT IF THERE ARE ANY LONG ENOUGH
BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER SEA BREEZES AT THE COAST MAY BE POSSIBLE.
THE ONSHORE WIND COMPONENT MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR THAT MAY ENHANCE STORM STRENGTH FOR STORMS APPROACHING THE
COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE 04/06ZZ GFS RUN WAS SUGGESTING THAT
THE FRONT CURRENTLY OVER NORTH FLORIDA WILL CLEAR CENTRAL FLORIDA
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

NOT GOING TO MESS WITH CURRENT 85-100 POP FOR AN UPDATE BUT WILL
LOOK TO PAR BACK POP FOR THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.

.AVIATION...MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY IN SHOWERS/STORMS
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OVER 25 KNOTS IN STRONGER CONVECTION. CLEARING
TO VFR NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

.MARINE...

CURRENT... BUOYS INDICATING PREVAILING WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO
20 KNOT OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION/STORMS WHERE GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS
ARE POSSIBLE.

THIS AFTERNOON...SOUTHWEST WIND 15 TO 20 KNOTS AHEAD OF FRONT
CURRENTLY PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND EAST GULF OF MEXICO.
GUSTS 25 TO 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE IN/NEAR STRONG STORMS COMING OFF THE
MAINLAND.

PREVIOUS AFD ISSUED 327 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016


TODAY AND TONIGHT...
AN ENERGETIC DISTURBANCE AND ASCD JET MAXIMA MOVING ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM THE GULF WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED STRONG LIGHTNING STORMS FROM THIS MORNING INTO MID
AFTERNOON. INCREASING WINDS IN THE ATMOSPHERE ALONG WITH PRESENCE
OF AFTERNOON SURFACE BOUNDARIES WILL ALLOW FOR SOME STORMS TO
BECOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE. THE MAIN WINDOW FOR DEVELOPMENT
OF STRONG STORMS WILL BE ROUGHLY MID MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON.

A HIGHER CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT OF LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
ALONG THE EAST COAST FROM CAPE CANAVERAL SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
SPACE AND TREASURE COASTS WHERE AN EAST COAST BREEZE BOUNDARY IS
FORECAST TO BE PRESENT BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL
BE FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...SMALL HAIL AND PERIODS OF
BLINDING RAIN.

A BRIEF TORNADO OR WATER SPOUT WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST
STORMS AS WELL. STORMS WILL MOVE RAPIDLY EAST AT 25 TO 35 MPH.
THIS CONVECTIVE SYSTEM PRECEDES AN APPROACHING LATE SEASON COLD
FRONT...POISED TO QUICKLY CROSS OVER THE AREA LATE TODAY. LATE
AFTERNOON/EVE PCPN WL QUICKLY COME TO AN END WITH PSG OF THE COLD
FRONT AND GRADUAL CLEARING WITH FALLING TEMPS INTO THE U50S TO
AROUND 60 BY DAYBREAK THU.

PERSONS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR WEATHER REPORTS FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF A SEVERE WEATHER WATCH AND OR LOCAL WARNINGS.

THU-THU NIGHT...ALOFT A POTENT TROUGH WILL BE ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. THE PREVIOUS SURFACE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AWAY FROM THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA EARLY IN THE PERIOD. WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN
TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. WNW/NW WINDS WILL BE BREEZY
(15-20 MPH) ON THIS DAY WITH FREQUENT HIGHER GUSTS AND MAY PROMPT
ISSUANCE OF A LAKE WIND ADVISORY. THIS NEW AIRMASS WILL BRING COOLER
AND MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS TO ECFL ABSENT OF ANY PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL STILL MANAGE NEAR 80 DEGREES TO L80S.
UNSEASONABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING INTO
THE 50S AREAWIDE...EXCEPT L60S STILL MANAGEABLE ACROSS SOUTHERN
MARTIN COUNTY.

FRI-FRI NIGHT...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST WITH ITS CENTER NEAR SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES A BIT THOUGH WNW/NW WINDS WILL STILL
INCREASE IN THE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON TO AROUND 15 MPH WITH SOME
HIGHER GUSTS. SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR WITH NO THREAT FOR RAIN. THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ONLY SLIGHTLY EASTWARD AND
WILL REMAIN ALIGNED ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. UNSEASONABLY COOL
HIGHS ON FRI WITH MAINLY 70S AREAWIDE. OVERNIGHT LOWS STILL BELOW
SEASONAL AND GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES.

SAT-WED...UPPER TROUGHING NEAR THE EASTERN SEABOARD FINALLY WEAKENS
AND LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH ZONAL FLOW
OVERHEAD RETURNING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE WEST CONTINUES TO WEAKEN GRADUALLY AND WILL SLIDE
EASTWARD ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA ON SUN AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLC.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK WITH WINDS
BECOMING ONSHORE AGAIN ON MON THRU WED. A WEAK BACKDOOR COOL FRONT
WILL SLIDE BY THE AREA/JUST OFFSHORE FRI OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SAT
BUT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN TOO DRY/STABLE TO PRODUCE ANYTHING
OVER LAND. IN FACT...WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE
FORECAST THRU AT LEAST TUE NIGHT. THE GFS SUGGESTS A SLUG OF
MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON WED WITH GREATEST CHANCES
SOUTHWARD FROM ORLANDO IF ANYTHING DOES DEVELOP. ONE MORE DAY FOR
BELOW SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ON SAT...THEN HIGHS QUICKLY CREEP BACK
WELL INTO THE 80S SUN-WED. LOWS WILL ALSO INCREASE BACK INTO THE 60S
AREAWIDE MON-WED.

&&

.AVIATION...
EARLY DETERIORATING CIGS FROM N-S ASCD WITH THE APCHG WEATHER
SYSTEM WL EVENTUALLY BRING PERIODS OF MVFR/BRIEF IFR ALNG THE I-4
CORRIDOR MNLY FM 04/10Z-04/15Z WITH PERIODS OF IFR ASCD WITH
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TS. DETERIORATING CONDS WITH SCT-NMRS SHRA
AND SCT TS WL SPREAD S AND E DURING THE MORNING AND PERSIST
THROUGH 04/19Z AHD OF THE APCHG COLD FRONT. IFR CONDS WL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY CIGS NR FL 015-025 ALNG W SFC WND G NR 40KT
BRIEFLY.

&&

.MARINE...
WLY WINDS INCREASED IN SPEED DURING THE MORNING WITH LIKELIHOOD OF
OFFSHORE MOVING TS DURING MID MORNING AND INTO THE AFTN HOURS.
LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS MAINLY ASCD WITH OFFSHORE MOVG
STORMS WL PRESENT SPECIFIC HAZARD TO ANY VESSELS OVER THE
INTRACOASTAL AND ATLC WATERS. RAPID EWD MOVEMENT OF STORMS AT 25
TO 35 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED. DETERIORATING OPEN WATER CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE WITH APPROACH AND PSG OF THE LATE SEASON COLD FRONT
LATER TODAY. HEADLINES WILL BE LIKELY FOR WINDS/SEAS OVER A
PORTION OF THE WATERS LATER TODAY.

THU-SUN...POST-FRONTAL CONDITIONS ON THU WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE WEST BUILDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. THE CENTER OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS ON SUN. MAINLY
PRECIPITATION FREE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT ON THU INTO FRI AFTERNOON BEFORE
RELAXING...BUT THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT
WILL SWING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE WATERS FRI OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SAT.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE FROM SAT AFTERNOON INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

CAUTIONARY CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT OR POTENTIALLY LOW-END SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA ON THU INTO FRI MORNING...THEN CAUTIONARY
CONDITIONS MAY RETURN AGAIN FRI OVERNIGHT INTO SAT MORNING DUE TO
GUSTY WNW/NW WINDS.

SEAS 3-4 FT NEAR SHORE/5-6 FT OFFSHORE ON THU...FALLING TO 2-3 FT
NEAR SHORE/3-4 FT OFFSHORE BY FRI EVENING LASTING THRU SAT...THEN
AOB 3 FT SAT NIGHT-SUN.

&&

FIRE WEATHER...
THU...BRISK NWRLY SFC/TRANSPORT FLOW WILL GENERATE STRONG DRY AIR
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT. MIN RH VALUES ARND 30-35PCT INTO THE
INTERIOR.

FRI-SAT...MAY BE THE MOST FIRE SENSITIVE DAYS WITH SEVERAL HOURS OF
RH AT OR BELOW 35 PERCENT WEST OF INTERSTATE 95. NO RAIN IN THE
FORECAST AND WILL SEE ERC VALUES SLOWLY INCREASE.

SUN...SLOW MOISTURE RECOVERY WITH MIN RH/S OVER THE INTERIOR IN THE
M30S TO AROUND 40PCT. ERC NUMBERS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE WITH NO
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  81  58  82  53 /  90  20  10  10
MCO  80  60  82  56 / 100  20  10  10
MLB  81  60  83  55 / 100  30  10  10
VRB  83  59  83  56 / 100  30  10  10
LEE  82  58  79  54 / 100  20  10   0
SFB  82  61  83  55 / 100  20  10  10
ORL  81  62  82  57 / 100  20  10  10
FPR  83  61  83  56 / 100  30  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

RADAR/IMPACT WX...VOLKMER
RADAR...SHARP
PUBLIC DESK...GLITTO
UPDATES/AVIATION...WIMMER





000
FXUS62 KMLB 040727
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
327 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.DISCUSSION...
...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS TODAY MAINLY ALONG THE SPACE
AND TREASURE COASTS...
...TURNING COOLER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...
AN ENERGETIC DISTURBANCE AND ASCD JET MAXIMA MOVING ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM THE GULF WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED STRONG LIGHTNING STORMS FROM THIS MORNING INTO MID
AFTERNOON. INCREASING WINDS IN THE ATMOSPHERE ALONG WITH PRESENCE
OF AFTERNOON SURFACE BOUNDARIES WILL ALLOW FOR SOME STORMS TO
BECOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE. THE MAIN WINDOW FOR DEVELOPMENT
OF STRONG STORMS WILL BE ROUGHLY MID MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON.

A HIGHER CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT OF LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
ALONG THE EAST COAST FROM CAPE CANAVERAL SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
SPACE AND TREASURE COASTS WHERE AN EAST COAST BREEZE BOUNDARY IS
FORECAST TO BE PRESENT BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL
BE FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...SMALL HAIL AND PERIODS OF
BLINDING RAIN.

A BRIEF TORNADO OR WATER SPOUT WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST
STORMS AS WELL. STORMS WILL MOVE RAPIDLY EAST AT 25 TO 35 MPH.
THIS CONVECTIVE SYSTEM PRECEDES AN APPROACHING LATE SEASON COLD
FRONT...POISED TO QUICKLY CROSS OVER THE AREA LATE TODAY. LATE
AFTERNOON/EVE PCPN WL QUICKLY COME TO AN END WITH PSG OF THE COLD
FRONT AND GRADUAL CLEARING WITH FALLING TEMPS INTO THE U50S TO
AROUND 60 BY DAYBREAK THU.

PERSONS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR WEATHER REPORTS FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF A SEVERE WEATHER WATCH AND OR LOCAL WARNINGS.

THU-THU NIGHT...ALOFT A POTENT TROUGH WILL BE ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. THE PREVIOUS SURFACE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AWAY FROM THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA EARLY IN THE PERIOD. WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN
TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. WNW/NW WINDS WILL BE BREEZY
(15-20 MPH) ON THIS DAY WITH FREQUENT HIGHER GUSTS AND MAY PROMPT
ISSUANCE OF A LAKE WIND ADVISORY. THIS NEW AIRMASS WILL BRING COOLER
AND MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS TO ECFL ABSENT OF ANY PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL STILL MANAGE NEAR 80 DEGREES TO L80S.
UNSEASONABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING INTO
THE 50S AREAWIDE...EXCEPT L60S STILL MANAGEABLE ACROSS SOUTHERN
MARTIN COUNTY.

FRI-FRI NIGHT...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST WITH ITS CENTER NEAR SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES A BIT THOUGH WNW/NW WINDS WILL STILL
INCREASE IN THE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON TO AROUND 15 MPH WITH SOME
HIGHER GUSTS. SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR WITH NO THREAT FOR RAIN. THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ONLY SLIGHTLY EASTWARD AND
WILL REMAIN ALIGNED ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. UNSEASONABLY COOL
HIGHS ON FRI WITH MAINLY 70S AREAWIDE. OVERNIGHT LOWS STILL BELOW
SEASONAL AND GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES.

SAT-WED...UPPER TROUGHING NEAR THE EASTERN SEABOARD FINALLY WEAKENS
AND LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH ZONAL FLOW
OVERHEAD RETURNING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE WEST CONTINUES TO WEAKEN GRADUALLY AND WILL SLIDE
EASTWARD ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA ON SUN AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLC.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK WITH WINDS
BECOMING ONSHORE AGAIN ON MON THRU WED. A WEAK BACKDOOR COOL FRONT
WILL SLIDE BY THE AREA/JUST OFFSHORE FRI OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SAT
BUT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN TOO DRY/STABLE TO PRODUCE ANYTHING
OVER LAND. IN FACT...WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE
FORECAST THRU AT LEAST TUE NIGHT. THE GFS SUGGESTS A SLUG OF
MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON WED WITH GREATEST CHANCES
SOUTHWARD FROM ORLANDO IF ANYTHING DOES DEVELOP. ONE MORE DAY FOR
BELOW SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ON SAT...THEN HIGHS QUICKLY CREEP BACK
WELL INTO THE 80S SUN-WED. LOWS WILL ALSO INCREASE BACK INTO THE 60S
AREAWIDE MON-WED.

&&

.AVIATION...
EARLY DETERIORATING CIGS FROM N-S ASCD WITH THE APCHG WEATHER
SYSTEM WL EVENTUALLY BRING PERIODS OF MVFR/BRIEF IFR ALNG THE I-4
CORRIDOR MNLY FM 04/10Z-04/15Z WITH PERIODS OF IFR ASCD WITH
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TS. DETERIORATING CONDS WITH SCT-NMRS SHRA
AND SCT TS WL SPREAD S AND E DURING THE MORNING AND PERSIST
THROUGH 04/19Z AHD OF THE APCHG COLD FRONT. IFR CONDS WL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY CIGS NR FL 015-025 ALNG W SFC WND G NR 40KT
BRIEFLY.

&&

.MARINE...
WLY WINDS INCREASED IN SPEED DURING THE MORNING WITH LIKELIHOOD OF
OFFSHORE MOVING TS DURING MID MORNING AND INTO THE AFTN HOURS.
LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS MAINLY ASCD WITH OFFSHORE MOVG
STORMS WL PRESENT SPECIFIC HAZARD TO ANY VESSELS OVER THE
INTRACOASTAL AND ATLC WATERS. RAPID EWD MOVEMENT OF STORMS AT 25
TO 35 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED. DETERIORATING OPEN WATER CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE WITH APPROACH AND PSG OF THE LATE SEASON COLD FRONT
LATER TODAY. HEADLINES WILL BE LIKELY FOR WINDS/SEAS OVER A
PORTION OF THE WATERS LATER TODAY.

THU-SUN...POST-FRONTAL CONDITIONS ON THU WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE WEST BUILDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. THE CENTER OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS ON SUN. MAINLY
PRECIPITATION FREE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT ON THU INTO FRI AFTERNOON BEFORE
RELAXING...BUT THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT
WILL SWING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE WATERS FRI OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SAT.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE FROM SAT AFTERNOON INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

CAUTIONARY CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT OR POTENTIALLY LOW-END SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA ON THU INTO FRI MORNING...THEN CAUTIONARY
CONDITIONS MAY RETURN AGAIN FRI OVERNIGHT INTO SAT MORNING DUE TO
GUSTY WNW/NW WINDS.

SEAS 3-4 FT NEAR SHORE/5-6 FT OFFSHORE ON THU...FALLING TO 2-3 FT
NEAR SHORE/3-4 FT OFFSHORE BY FRI EVENING LASTING THRU SAT...THEN
AOB 3 FT SAT NIGHT-SUN.

&&

FIRE WEATHER...
THU...BRISK NWRLY SFC/TRANSPORT FLOW WILL GENERATE STRONG DRY AIR
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT. MIN RH VALUES ARND 30-35PCT INTO THE
INTERIOR.

FRI-SAT...MAY BE THE MOST FIRE SENSITIVE DAYS WITH SEVERAL HOURS OF
RH AT OR BELOW 35 PERCENT WEST OF INTERSTATE 95. NO RAIN IN THE
FORECAST AND WILL SEE ERC VALUES SLOWLY INCREASE.

SUN...SLOW MOISTURE RECOVERY WITH MIN RH/S OVER THE INTERIOR IN THE
M30S TO AROUND 40PCT. ERC NUMBERS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE WITH NO
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  81  58  82  53 /  90  20  10  10
MCO  80  60  82  56 / 100  20  10  10
MLB  81  60  83  55 / 100  30  10  10
VRB  83  59  83  56 / 100  30  10  10
LEE  82  58  79  54 / 100  20  10   0
SFB  82  61  83  55 / 100  20  10  10
ORL  81  62  82  57 / 100  20  10  10
FPR  83  61  83  56 / 100  30  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PENDERGRAST
LONG TERM....SEDLOCK





000
FXUS62 KMLB 040727
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
327 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.DISCUSSION...
...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS TODAY MAINLY ALONG THE SPACE
AND TREASURE COASTS...
...TURNING COOLER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...
AN ENERGETIC DISTURBANCE AND ASCD JET MAXIMA MOVING ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM THE GULF WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED STRONG LIGHTNING STORMS FROM THIS MORNING INTO MID
AFTERNOON. INCREASING WINDS IN THE ATMOSPHERE ALONG WITH PRESENCE
OF AFTERNOON SURFACE BOUNDARIES WILL ALLOW FOR SOME STORMS TO
BECOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE. THE MAIN WINDOW FOR DEVELOPMENT
OF STRONG STORMS WILL BE ROUGHLY MID MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON.

A HIGHER CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT OF LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
ALONG THE EAST COAST FROM CAPE CANAVERAL SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
SPACE AND TREASURE COASTS WHERE AN EAST COAST BREEZE BOUNDARY IS
FORECAST TO BE PRESENT BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL
BE FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...SMALL HAIL AND PERIODS OF
BLINDING RAIN.

A BRIEF TORNADO OR WATER SPOUT WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST
STORMS AS WELL. STORMS WILL MOVE RAPIDLY EAST AT 25 TO 35 MPH.
THIS CONVECTIVE SYSTEM PRECEDES AN APPROACHING LATE SEASON COLD
FRONT...POISED TO QUICKLY CROSS OVER THE AREA LATE TODAY. LATE
AFTERNOON/EVE PCPN WL QUICKLY COME TO AN END WITH PSG OF THE COLD
FRONT AND GRADUAL CLEARING WITH FALLING TEMPS INTO THE U50S TO
AROUND 60 BY DAYBREAK THU.

PERSONS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR WEATHER REPORTS FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF A SEVERE WEATHER WATCH AND OR LOCAL WARNINGS.

THU-THU NIGHT...ALOFT A POTENT TROUGH WILL BE ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. THE PREVIOUS SURFACE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AWAY FROM THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA EARLY IN THE PERIOD. WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN
TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. WNW/NW WINDS WILL BE BREEZY
(15-20 MPH) ON THIS DAY WITH FREQUENT HIGHER GUSTS AND MAY PROMPT
ISSUANCE OF A LAKE WIND ADVISORY. THIS NEW AIRMASS WILL BRING COOLER
AND MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS TO ECFL ABSENT OF ANY PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL STILL MANAGE NEAR 80 DEGREES TO L80S.
UNSEASONABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING INTO
THE 50S AREAWIDE...EXCEPT L60S STILL MANAGEABLE ACROSS SOUTHERN
MARTIN COUNTY.

FRI-FRI NIGHT...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST WITH ITS CENTER NEAR SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES A BIT THOUGH WNW/NW WINDS WILL STILL
INCREASE IN THE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON TO AROUND 15 MPH WITH SOME
HIGHER GUSTS. SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR WITH NO THREAT FOR RAIN. THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ONLY SLIGHTLY EASTWARD AND
WILL REMAIN ALIGNED ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. UNSEASONABLY COOL
HIGHS ON FRI WITH MAINLY 70S AREAWIDE. OVERNIGHT LOWS STILL BELOW
SEASONAL AND GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES.

SAT-WED...UPPER TROUGHING NEAR THE EASTERN SEABOARD FINALLY WEAKENS
AND LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH ZONAL FLOW
OVERHEAD RETURNING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE WEST CONTINUES TO WEAKEN GRADUALLY AND WILL SLIDE
EASTWARD ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA ON SUN AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLC.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK WITH WINDS
BECOMING ONSHORE AGAIN ON MON THRU WED. A WEAK BACKDOOR COOL FRONT
WILL SLIDE BY THE AREA/JUST OFFSHORE FRI OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SAT
BUT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN TOO DRY/STABLE TO PRODUCE ANYTHING
OVER LAND. IN FACT...WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE
FORECAST THRU AT LEAST TUE NIGHT. THE GFS SUGGESTS A SLUG OF
MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON WED WITH GREATEST CHANCES
SOUTHWARD FROM ORLANDO IF ANYTHING DOES DEVELOP. ONE MORE DAY FOR
BELOW SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ON SAT...THEN HIGHS QUICKLY CREEP BACK
WELL INTO THE 80S SUN-WED. LOWS WILL ALSO INCREASE BACK INTO THE 60S
AREAWIDE MON-WED.

&&

.AVIATION...
EARLY DETERIORATING CIGS FROM N-S ASCD WITH THE APCHG WEATHER
SYSTEM WL EVENTUALLY BRING PERIODS OF MVFR/BRIEF IFR ALNG THE I-4
CORRIDOR MNLY FM 04/10Z-04/15Z WITH PERIODS OF IFR ASCD WITH
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TS. DETERIORATING CONDS WITH SCT-NMRS SHRA
AND SCT TS WL SPREAD S AND E DURING THE MORNING AND PERSIST
THROUGH 04/19Z AHD OF THE APCHG COLD FRONT. IFR CONDS WL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY CIGS NR FL 015-025 ALNG W SFC WND G NR 40KT
BRIEFLY.

&&

.MARINE...
WLY WINDS INCREASED IN SPEED DURING THE MORNING WITH LIKELIHOOD OF
OFFSHORE MOVING TS DURING MID MORNING AND INTO THE AFTN HOURS.
LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS MAINLY ASCD WITH OFFSHORE MOVG
STORMS WL PRESENT SPECIFIC HAZARD TO ANY VESSELS OVER THE
INTRACOASTAL AND ATLC WATERS. RAPID EWD MOVEMENT OF STORMS AT 25
TO 35 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED. DETERIORATING OPEN WATER CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE WITH APPROACH AND PSG OF THE LATE SEASON COLD FRONT
LATER TODAY. HEADLINES WILL BE LIKELY FOR WINDS/SEAS OVER A
PORTION OF THE WATERS LATER TODAY.

THU-SUN...POST-FRONTAL CONDITIONS ON THU WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE WEST BUILDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. THE CENTER OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS ON SUN. MAINLY
PRECIPITATION FREE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT ON THU INTO FRI AFTERNOON BEFORE
RELAXING...BUT THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT
WILL SWING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE WATERS FRI OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SAT.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE FROM SAT AFTERNOON INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

CAUTIONARY CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT OR POTENTIALLY LOW-END SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA ON THU INTO FRI MORNING...THEN CAUTIONARY
CONDITIONS MAY RETURN AGAIN FRI OVERNIGHT INTO SAT MORNING DUE TO
GUSTY WNW/NW WINDS.

SEAS 3-4 FT NEAR SHORE/5-6 FT OFFSHORE ON THU...FALLING TO 2-3 FT
NEAR SHORE/3-4 FT OFFSHORE BY FRI EVENING LASTING THRU SAT...THEN
AOB 3 FT SAT NIGHT-SUN.

&&

FIRE WEATHER...
THU...BRISK NWRLY SFC/TRANSPORT FLOW WILL GENERATE STRONG DRY AIR
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT. MIN RH VALUES ARND 30-35PCT INTO THE
INTERIOR.

FRI-SAT...MAY BE THE MOST FIRE SENSITIVE DAYS WITH SEVERAL HOURS OF
RH AT OR BELOW 35 PERCENT WEST OF INTERSTATE 95. NO RAIN IN THE
FORECAST AND WILL SEE ERC VALUES SLOWLY INCREASE.

SUN...SLOW MOISTURE RECOVERY WITH MIN RH/S OVER THE INTERIOR IN THE
M30S TO AROUND 40PCT. ERC NUMBERS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE WITH NO
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  81  58  82  53 /  90  20  10  10
MCO  80  60  82  56 / 100  20  10  10
MLB  81  60  83  55 / 100  30  10  10
VRB  83  59  83  56 / 100  30  10  10
LEE  82  58  79  54 / 100  20  10   0
SFB  82  61  83  55 / 100  20  10  10
ORL  81  62  82  57 / 100  20  10  10
FPR  83  61  83  56 / 100  30  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PENDERGRAST
LONG TERM....SEDLOCK





000
FXUS62 KMLB 040157
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1000 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.UPDATE...

CONVECTION OVER LAND ENDED AROUND 01Z/9PM...AND BASED ON UPSTREAM
RADAR TRENDS...RAIN-FREE WX WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE EVENING AND
INTO MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT. BOTH THE GLOBAL AND MESOMODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS INCREASING CHANCE FOR RAIN TO REDEVELOP OVER THE NRN/WRN
CWA PRIOR TO SUNRISE (ESPECIALLY NW OF I=4) AS CONVECTION PROGGED
TO FORM OFFSHORE THE NATURE COAST/WRN FL AFTER 06Z. UPDATED ZFP WILL
REMOVE MENTION OF POPS UNTIL 09Z...THEN PUSH POPS UP TO 50 FOR LAKE
CO AND 30-40 FOR THE ADJCT 4 COS...WITH JUST A SLGT CHC ELSEWHERE.
MINS TONIGHT IN THE L70S.

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS WENT VFR/PRECIP-FREE THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z...BUT
LATEST THINKING IS THAT WE`LL NEED TO START VCSH 09Z FROM LEE-ISM TO
12Z MCO-DAB...12Z-14Z DAB-TIX-MLB AND 14Z-16Z MLB-VRB-FPR-SUA. NMRS
TO PRVLG MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN PRECIP WITH SCT IFR TS...GRADUALLY ENDING
NW-SE FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNSET.

&&

.MARINE...OFFSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP SEAS 2-3FT NEAR SHORE AND 3-4FT
OFFSHORE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.

&&

UPDATE/AVIATION...CRISTALDI
RADAR/IMPACT WX...WEITLICH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016/

WEDNESDAY...
HI AMP MID/UPR TROF AXIS EXTENDING FM THE DESERT SW TO THE GREAT
LAKES WILL COMBINE WITH A DVLPG LOW PRES AREA OVER THE MID ATLC TO
PUSH A LATE SPRING COLD FRONT ACRS THE FL PENINSULA. NEARLY
SATURATED COLUMN AS FRONTAL MOISTURE COMBINES WITH DEEP SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE PUSHING UP FROM THE BAHAMAS/FL STRAITS. PWAT VALUES INCRG
TO 1.75"-2.00" BY 18Z WILL PRODUCE WDSPRD SHRAS WITH LIKELY TSRAS.
FROPA WL OCCUR FROM MID DAY THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. WRLY H85-H50
STEERING FLOW INCRG TO 30-40KTS WILL ENSURE FAST MOVING STORMS...
MANY OF WHICH WILL BE CAPABLE OF GENERATING GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY
RAIN. COOL TEMPS CONTINUE ALOFT WITH H50 TEMPS ARND -10C...RAISING
THE POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND FQNT CG LTG. RAIN/CLOUD COMBO WILL KEEP
MAX TEMPS IN THE L/M80S.

WED NIGHT...
SURFACE FRONT CLEARS CENTRAL FLORIDA BY THE END OF THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. MOISTURE PROFILE BECOMES VERY DRY VERY QUICK. BECAUSE THE
COOLER AND DRY AIR HAS YET TO FULLY IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 4 TO THE LOW 60S THE MIDDLE AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THERE MAY BE A FEW LOCATIONS SNEAKING INTO THE MID
60S (AROUND 65) IN MARTIN COUNTY.

THU-FRI...
WITH THE FRONT HAVING CLEARED CENTRAL FLORIDA AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST... A DRYING TREND WILL OCCUR
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. GFS SHOWING THE MID LEVEL/500MB TROUGH
AXIS CLEARING FLORIDA LATE OVERNIGHT WED AND DEEP...ROUGHLY 925MB TO
250MB AND ABOVE...WESTERLY FLOW SETTING UP AND LASTING THROUGH
OVERNIGHT THU THEN SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST FRI AND BEYOND.
TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS SHOWING SIGNIFICANT DRYING OF THE WHOLE
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN BEGINNING OVERNIGHT WED THROUGH OVERNIGHT FRI
THEN A SLOW MOISTENING SAT NIGHT AND SUN. UNSEASONABLY COOL EVENINGS
THU AND FRIDAY NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN THE 50S OVER INLAND LOCATIONS AND
HIGHS RECOVERING BACK INTO THE 80S. NO RAIN IS FORECAST INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

SAT-TUE...(PREV DISC)
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED CONUS BLOCKING PATTERN OVER THE CENTRAL US INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WL LEAVE THE LOCAL AREA WITH A DRY FORECAST WITH
SEASONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES FROM THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE WRN ATLC IS SHOWN INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS WELL WILL LIMIT RAIN POTENTIAL THROUGH NEXT TUE.

&&

.AVIATION...THRU 04/12Z.
SFC WINDS: THRU 04/00Z...S/SW 8-12KTS...S OF KTIX BCMG S/SE 8-12KTS.
BTWN 04/00Z-04/03Z...BCMG SW 3-7KTS. AFT 04/14Z..BCMG W/SW 8-12KTS.

VSBYS/WX/CIGS: THRU 04/00Z...SCT MVFR SHRAS/IFR TSRAS ALL SITES MVG
E/NE 15-20KTS...SFC G35KTS PSBL WITH ANY TSRA ACTIVITY ESP CSTL
SITES. BTWN 04/00Z-04/04Z...S OF KISM-KTIX SCT MVFR SHRAS/ISOLD IFR
TSRAS.N OF KISM-KTIX SLGT CHC MVFR SHRAS. BTWN 04/04Z-04/14Z SLGT
CHC MVFR SHRAS ALL SITES. AFT 04/14Z...PREVAILING MVFR CIGS BTWN
FL020-030 WITH OCNL VSBYS IN SHRAS...IFR TSRAS LKLY/SLGT CHC LIFR
+TSRAS WITH SFC G35KTS.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY...POOR BOATING CONDITIONS AS SFC/BNDRY LYR WINDS
SHIFT TO THE W/SW AHEAD OF A LATE SPRING COLD FRONT PUSHING THRU THE
DEEP SOUTH. GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZE...OCNLY FRESH OVERNIGHT AS THE
FRONTAL TROF INTERACTS WITH THE BACKSIDE OF A RETREATING ATLC RIDGE.
OFFSHORE WINDS WILL KEEP THE NEARSHORE WATERS FETCH-PROTECTED WHILE
GENERATING ROUGH SHORT PD WIND CHOP WITHIN A FEW MILES OF THE COAST.
SEAS 2-3FT NEARSHORE AND 3-4FT OFFSHORE THRU MIDDAY WED...BUILDING
TO 3-4FT NEARSHORE AND 4-5FT OFFSHORE BY LATE AFTN WED. CHC OF
SHRAS/TSRAS MOVING OFFSHORE THRU MIDNIGHT. OCNL SHRAS AND NMRS
TSRAS DVLPG BY MIDDAY WED JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BNDRY.

WED NIGHT-SUN...COMBINATION OF HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDING IN FROM
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST U.S. AND LOW
PRESSURE SLOWLY LIFTING NORTHEAST ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN OUT OF THE WEST TO NORTHWEST THROUGH SAT. MORE
WESTERLY SUN AS A FRONT MOVING EAST OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
SUPPRESSES SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AXIS SOUTH OF CENTRAL FLORIDA.
WINDS SHOULD AVERAGE 10 TO 15 KNOTS NEARSHORE AND 15 TO 15 20 KNOTS
OFFSHORE. SEAS HIGHER...5 TO 6 FEET...WELL OFFSHORE DUE TO LONGER
FETCH.

&&

FIRE WEATHER...
WED...WIDESPREAD SHRAS/TSRA ASSOCD WITH A LATE SPRING COLD FRONT
WILL PRECLUDE ANY FIRE WX CONCERNS.

THU...BRISK NWRLY SFC/TRANSPORT FLOW WILL GENERATE STRONG DRY AIR
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT. MIN RH VALUES ARND 35PCT.

FRI-SAT...LOOK TO BE THE MOST FIRE SENSITIVE DAYS WITH SEVERAL HOURS
OF RH AT OR BELOW 35 PERCENT WEST OF INTERSTATE 95. NO RAIN IN THE
FORECAST WILL SEE ERC VALUES SLOWLY INCREASE.

SAT-SUN...SOME MOISTURE RECOVERY WITH MIN RH/S IN THE INTERIOR IN
THE UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S. LITTLE OR NO RAIN WILL STILL SEE ERC
VALUES REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY INCREASE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  70  84  58  79 /  40  70  10   0
MCO  71  82  61  80 /  30  70  20   0
MLB  71  85  61  83 /  30  70  20   0
VRB  72  87  62  84 /  40  70  30   0
LEE  72  81  60  78 /  40  70  10   0
SFB  72  85  62  79 /  30  70  10   0
ORL  71  84  64  80 /  30  70  10   0
FPR  69  88  62  85 /  40  70  30  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KMLB 040157
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1000 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.UPDATE...

CONVECTION OVER LAND ENDED AROUND 01Z/9PM...AND BASED ON UPSTREAM
RADAR TRENDS...RAIN-FREE WX WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE EVENING AND
INTO MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT. BOTH THE GLOBAL AND MESOMODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS INCREASING CHANCE FOR RAIN TO REDEVELOP OVER THE NRN/WRN
CWA PRIOR TO SUNRISE (ESPECIALLY NW OF I=4) AS CONVECTION PROGGED
TO FORM OFFSHORE THE NATURE COAST/WRN FL AFTER 06Z. UPDATED ZFP WILL
REMOVE MENTION OF POPS UNTIL 09Z...THEN PUSH POPS UP TO 50 FOR LAKE
CO AND 30-40 FOR THE ADJCT 4 COS...WITH JUST A SLGT CHC ELSEWHERE.
MINS TONIGHT IN THE L70S.

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS WENT VFR/PRECIP-FREE THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z...BUT
LATEST THINKING IS THAT WE`LL NEED TO START VCSH 09Z FROM LEE-ISM TO
12Z MCO-DAB...12Z-14Z DAB-TIX-MLB AND 14Z-16Z MLB-VRB-FPR-SUA. NMRS
TO PRVLG MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN PRECIP WITH SCT IFR TS...GRADUALLY ENDING
NW-SE FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNSET.

&&

.MARINE...OFFSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP SEAS 2-3FT NEAR SHORE AND 3-4FT
OFFSHORE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.

&&

UPDATE/AVIATION...CRISTALDI
RADAR/IMPACT WX...WEITLICH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016/

WEDNESDAY...
HI AMP MID/UPR TROF AXIS EXTENDING FM THE DESERT SW TO THE GREAT
LAKES WILL COMBINE WITH A DVLPG LOW PRES AREA OVER THE MID ATLC TO
PUSH A LATE SPRING COLD FRONT ACRS THE FL PENINSULA. NEARLY
SATURATED COLUMN AS FRONTAL MOISTURE COMBINES WITH DEEP SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE PUSHING UP FROM THE BAHAMAS/FL STRAITS. PWAT VALUES INCRG
TO 1.75"-2.00" BY 18Z WILL PRODUCE WDSPRD SHRAS WITH LIKELY TSRAS.
FROPA WL OCCUR FROM MID DAY THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. WRLY H85-H50
STEERING FLOW INCRG TO 30-40KTS WILL ENSURE FAST MOVING STORMS...
MANY OF WHICH WILL BE CAPABLE OF GENERATING GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY
RAIN. COOL TEMPS CONTINUE ALOFT WITH H50 TEMPS ARND -10C...RAISING
THE POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND FQNT CG LTG. RAIN/CLOUD COMBO WILL KEEP
MAX TEMPS IN THE L/M80S.

WED NIGHT...
SURFACE FRONT CLEARS CENTRAL FLORIDA BY THE END OF THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. MOISTURE PROFILE BECOMES VERY DRY VERY QUICK. BECAUSE THE
COOLER AND DRY AIR HAS YET TO FULLY IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 4 TO THE LOW 60S THE MIDDLE AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THERE MAY BE A FEW LOCATIONS SNEAKING INTO THE MID
60S (AROUND 65) IN MARTIN COUNTY.

THU-FRI...
WITH THE FRONT HAVING CLEARED CENTRAL FLORIDA AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST... A DRYING TREND WILL OCCUR
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. GFS SHOWING THE MID LEVEL/500MB TROUGH
AXIS CLEARING FLORIDA LATE OVERNIGHT WED AND DEEP...ROUGHLY 925MB TO
250MB AND ABOVE...WESTERLY FLOW SETTING UP AND LASTING THROUGH
OVERNIGHT THU THEN SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST FRI AND BEYOND.
TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS SHOWING SIGNIFICANT DRYING OF THE WHOLE
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN BEGINNING OVERNIGHT WED THROUGH OVERNIGHT FRI
THEN A SLOW MOISTENING SAT NIGHT AND SUN. UNSEASONABLY COOL EVENINGS
THU AND FRIDAY NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN THE 50S OVER INLAND LOCATIONS AND
HIGHS RECOVERING BACK INTO THE 80S. NO RAIN IS FORECAST INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

SAT-TUE...(PREV DISC)
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED CONUS BLOCKING PATTERN OVER THE CENTRAL US INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WL LEAVE THE LOCAL AREA WITH A DRY FORECAST WITH
SEASONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES FROM THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE WRN ATLC IS SHOWN INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS WELL WILL LIMIT RAIN POTENTIAL THROUGH NEXT TUE.

&&

.AVIATION...THRU 04/12Z.
SFC WINDS: THRU 04/00Z...S/SW 8-12KTS...S OF KTIX BCMG S/SE 8-12KTS.
BTWN 04/00Z-04/03Z...BCMG SW 3-7KTS. AFT 04/14Z..BCMG W/SW 8-12KTS.

VSBYS/WX/CIGS: THRU 04/00Z...SCT MVFR SHRAS/IFR TSRAS ALL SITES MVG
E/NE 15-20KTS...SFC G35KTS PSBL WITH ANY TSRA ACTIVITY ESP CSTL
SITES. BTWN 04/00Z-04/04Z...S OF KISM-KTIX SCT MVFR SHRAS/ISOLD IFR
TSRAS.N OF KISM-KTIX SLGT CHC MVFR SHRAS. BTWN 04/04Z-04/14Z SLGT
CHC MVFR SHRAS ALL SITES. AFT 04/14Z...PREVAILING MVFR CIGS BTWN
FL020-030 WITH OCNL VSBYS IN SHRAS...IFR TSRAS LKLY/SLGT CHC LIFR
+TSRAS WITH SFC G35KTS.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY...POOR BOATING CONDITIONS AS SFC/BNDRY LYR WINDS
SHIFT TO THE W/SW AHEAD OF A LATE SPRING COLD FRONT PUSHING THRU THE
DEEP SOUTH. GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZE...OCNLY FRESH OVERNIGHT AS THE
FRONTAL TROF INTERACTS WITH THE BACKSIDE OF A RETREATING ATLC RIDGE.
OFFSHORE WINDS WILL KEEP THE NEARSHORE WATERS FETCH-PROTECTED WHILE
GENERATING ROUGH SHORT PD WIND CHOP WITHIN A FEW MILES OF THE COAST.
SEAS 2-3FT NEARSHORE AND 3-4FT OFFSHORE THRU MIDDAY WED...BUILDING
TO 3-4FT NEARSHORE AND 4-5FT OFFSHORE BY LATE AFTN WED. CHC OF
SHRAS/TSRAS MOVING OFFSHORE THRU MIDNIGHT. OCNL SHRAS AND NMRS
TSRAS DVLPG BY MIDDAY WED JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BNDRY.

WED NIGHT-SUN...COMBINATION OF HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDING IN FROM
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST U.S. AND LOW
PRESSURE SLOWLY LIFTING NORTHEAST ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN OUT OF THE WEST TO NORTHWEST THROUGH SAT. MORE
WESTERLY SUN AS A FRONT MOVING EAST OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
SUPPRESSES SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AXIS SOUTH OF CENTRAL FLORIDA.
WINDS SHOULD AVERAGE 10 TO 15 KNOTS NEARSHORE AND 15 TO 15 20 KNOTS
OFFSHORE. SEAS HIGHER...5 TO 6 FEET...WELL OFFSHORE DUE TO LONGER
FETCH.

&&

FIRE WEATHER...
WED...WIDESPREAD SHRAS/TSRA ASSOCD WITH A LATE SPRING COLD FRONT
WILL PRECLUDE ANY FIRE WX CONCERNS.

THU...BRISK NWRLY SFC/TRANSPORT FLOW WILL GENERATE STRONG DRY AIR
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT. MIN RH VALUES ARND 35PCT.

FRI-SAT...LOOK TO BE THE MOST FIRE SENSITIVE DAYS WITH SEVERAL HOURS
OF RH AT OR BELOW 35 PERCENT WEST OF INTERSTATE 95. NO RAIN IN THE
FORECAST WILL SEE ERC VALUES SLOWLY INCREASE.

SAT-SUN...SOME MOISTURE RECOVERY WITH MIN RH/S IN THE INTERIOR IN
THE UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S. LITTLE OR NO RAIN WILL STILL SEE ERC
VALUES REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY INCREASE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  70  84  58  79 /  40  70  10   0
MCO  71  82  61  80 /  30  70  20   0
MLB  71  85  61  83 /  30  70  20   0
VRB  72  87  62  84 /  40  70  30   0
LEE  72  81  60  78 /  40  70  10   0
SFB  72  85  62  79 /  30  70  10   0
ORL  71  84  64  80 /  30  70  10   0
FPR  69  88  62  85 /  40  70  30  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KMLB 031910
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
310 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT-TONIGHT...
MID AFTN TEMPS HAVE WELL EXCEEDED THEIR CONVECTIVE TRIGGERS.
MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVERHEAD COUPLED WITH MINIMAL MID LVL THERMAL
CAPS LED TO SHRA INITIALIZATION OVER THE TREASURE COAST BY MIDDAY...
ADDITIONAL SHRAS OVER THE INTERIOR AHEAD OF THE WEST COAST SEA
BREEZE. WHILE DEEP LYR VORT FIELDS ARE RATHER WEAK...THE PRESENCE OF
A 80-100KT H30-H20 JET STREAK OVER THE NRN GOMEX HAS ALLOWED UPR DIV
FIELDS TO STRENGTHEN. THIS WILL HELP SUPPORT SCT SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY
THRU SUNSET WITH BRISK W/SW STEERING FLOW WILL PUSHING ALL
CONVECTION TO THE E/NE AT 20-25KTS. MORNING RAOBS REVEALED A VERY
DRY H70-H50 LYR...RAISING THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH
ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...ESP CONSIDERING THE RAPID STORM MOTION.

DEEP CONVECTION SHOULD TAPER OFF BY MIDNIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF SFC
HEATING. WILL KEEP SLGT CHC OF SHRAS IN THE FCST OVERNIGHT AS THE
DEEP/STRONG W/SW FLOW WILL BE CAPABLE OF TRANSPORTING ANY GOMEX
SHRAS ACRS THE PENINSULA. LIGHT BUT STEADY WRLY FLOW WILL COMBINE
WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER TO KEEP MIN TEMPS IN THE L/M70S.

WEDNESDAY...
HI AMP MID/UPR TROF AXIS EXTENDING FM THE DESERT SW TO THE GREAT
LAKES WILL COMBINE WITH A DVLPG LOW PRES AREA OVER THE MID ATLC TO
PUSH A LATE SPRING COLD FRONT ACRS THE FL PENINSULA. NEARLY
SATURATED COLUMN AS FRONTAL MOISTURE COMBINES WITH DEEP SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE PUSHING UP FROM THE BAHAMAS/FL STRAITS. PWAT VALUES INCRG
TO 1.75"-2.00" BY 18Z WILL PRODUCE WDSPRD SHRAS WITH LIKELY TSRAS.
FROPA WL OCCUR FROM MID DAY THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. WRLY H85-H50
STEERING FLOW INCRG TO 30-40KTS WILL ENSURE FAST MOVING STORMS...
MANY OF WHICH WILL BE CAPABLE OF GENERATING GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY
RAIN. COOL TEMPS CONTINUE ALOFT WITH H50 TEMPS ARND -10C...RAISING
THE POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND FQNT CG LTG. RAIN/CLOUD COMBO WILL KEEP
MAX TEMPS IN THE L/M80S.

WED NIGHT...
SURFACE FRONT CLEARS CENTRAL FLORIDA BY THE END OF THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. MOISTURE PROFILE BECOMES VERY DRY VERY QUICK. BECAUSE THE
COOLER AND DRY AIR HAS YET TO FULLY IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 4 TO THE LOW 60S THE MIDDLE AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THERE MAY BE A FEW LOCATIONS SNEAKING INTO THE MID
60S (AROUND 65) IN MARTIN COUNTY.

THU-FRI...
WITH THE FRONT HAVING CLEARED CENTRAL FLORIDA AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST... A DRYING TREND WILL OCCUR
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. GFS SHOWING THE MID LEVEL/500MB TROUGH
AXIS CLEARING FLORIDA LATE OVERNIGHT WED AND DEEP...ROUGHLY 925MB TO
250MB AND ABOVE...WESTERLY FLOW SETTING UP AND LASTING THROUGH
OVERNIGHT THU THEN SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST FRI AND BEYOND.
TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS SHOWING SIGNIFICANT DRYING OF THE WHOLE
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN BEGINNING OVERNIGHT WED THROUGH OVERNIGHT FRI
THEN A SLOW MOISTENING SAT NIGHT AND SUN. UNSEASONABLY COOL EVENINGS
THU AND FRIDAY NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN THE 50S OVER INLAND LOCATIONS AND
HIGHS RECOVERING BACK INTO THE 80S. NO RAIN IS FORECAST INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

SAT-TUE...(PREV DISC)
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED CONUS BLOCKING PATTERN OVER THE CENTRAL US INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WL LEAVE THE LOCAL AREA WITH A DRY FORECAST WITH
SEASONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES FROM THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE WRN ATLC IS SHOWN INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS WELL WILL LIMIT RAIN POTENTIAL THROUGH NEXT TUE.

&&

.AVIATION...THRU 04/12Z.
SFC WINDS: THRU 04/00Z...S/SW 8-12KTS...S OF KTIX BCMG S/SE 8-12KTS.
BTWN 04/00Z-04/03Z...BCMG SW 3-7KTS. AFT 04/14Z..BCMG W/SW 8-12KTS.

VSBYS/WX/CIGS: THRU 04/00Z...SCT MVFR SHRAS/IFR TSRAS ALL SITES MVG
E/NE 15-20KTS...SFC G35KTS PSBL WITH ANY TSRA ACTIVITY ESP CSTL
SITES. BTWN 04/00Z-04/04Z...S OF KISM-KTIX SCT MVFR SHRAS/ISOLD IFR
TSRAS.N OF KISM-KTIX SLGT CHC MVFR SHRAS. BTWN 04/04Z-04/14Z SLGT
CHC MVFR SHRAS ALL SITES. AFT 04/14Z...PREVAILING MVFR CIGS BTWN
FL020-030 WITH OCNL VSBYS IN SHRAS...IFR TSRAS LKLY/SLGT CHC LIFR
+TSRAS WITH SFC G35KTS.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY...POOR BOATING CONDITIONS AS SFC/BNDRY LYR WINDS
SHIFT TO THE W/SW AHEAD OF A LATE SPRING COLD FRONT PUSHING THRU THE
DEEP SOUTH. GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZE...OCNLY FRESH OVERNIGHT AS THE
FRONTAL TROF INTERACTS WITH THE BACKSIDE OF A RETREATING ATLC RIDGE.
OFFSHORE WINDS WILL KEEP THE NEARSHORE WATERS FETCH-PROTECTED WHILE
GENERATING ROUGH SHORT PD WIND CHOP WITHIN A FEW MILES OF THE COAST.
SEAS 2-3FT NEARSHORE AND 3-4FT OFFSHORE THRU MIDDAY WED...BUILDING
TO 3-4FT NEARSHORE AND 4-5FT OFFSHORE BY LATE AFTN WED. CHC OF
SHRAS/TSRAS MOVING OFFSHORE THRU MIDNIGHT. OCNL SHRAS AND NMRS
TSRAS DVLPG BY MIDDAY WED JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BNDRY.

WED NIGHT-SUN...COMBINATION OF HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDING IN FROM
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST U.S. AND LOW
PRESSURE SLOWLY LIFTING NORTHEAST ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN OUT OF THE WEST TO NORTHWEST THROUGH SAT. MORE
WESTERLY SUN AS A FRONT MOVING EAST OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
SUPPRESSES SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AXIS SOUTH OF CENTRAL FLORIDA.
WINDS SHOULD AVERAGE 10 TO 15 KNOTS NEARSHORE AND 15 TO 15 20 KNOTS
OFFSHORE. SEAS HIGHER...5 TO 6 FEET...WELL OFFSHORE DUE TO LONGER
FETCH.

&&

FIRE WEATHER...
WED...WIDESPREAD SHRAS/TSRA ASSOCD WITH A LATE SPRING COLD FRONT
WILL PRECLUDE ANY FIRE WX CONCERNS.

THU...BRISK NWRLY SFC/TRANSPORT FLOW WILL GENERATE STRONG DRY AIR
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT. MIN RH VALUES ARND 35PCT.

FRI-SAT...LOOK TO BE THE MOST FIRE SENSITIVE DAYS WITH SEVERAL HOURS
OF RH AT OR BELOW 35 PERCENT WEST OF INTERSTATE 95. NO RAIN IN THE
FORECAST WILL SEE ERC VALUES SLOWLY INCREASE.

SAT-SUN...SOME MOISTURE RECOVERY WITH MIN RH/S IN THE INTERIOR IN
THE UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S. LITTLE OR NO RAIN WILL STILL SEE ERC
VALUES REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY INCREASE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  70  84  58  79 /  40  70  10   0
MCO  71  82  61  80 /  30  70  20   0
MLB  71  85  61  83 /  30  70  20   0
VRB  72  87  62  84 /  40  70  30   0
LEE  72  81  60  78 /  40  70  10   0
SFB  72  85  62  79 /  30  70  10   0
ORL  71  84  64  80 /  30  70  10   0
FPR  69  88  62  85 /  40  70  30  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...BRAGAW
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...WIMMER





000
FXUS62 KMLB 031426
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1025 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.DISCUSSION...

...WARM AGAIN TODAY WITH SOME STRONG STORMS...

ATLC RIDGE AXIS HAS BEEN NUDGED INTO THE FL STRAITS BY A SHORT WAVE
TROF PUSHING ACRS THE DEEP/MID SOUTH...RESULTING IN A DOMINANT SW
FLOW THRU THE H100-H70 LYR. MORNING RAOBS REVEALED AN UNSTABLE AND
FAIRLY MOIST AIRMASS OVER CENTRAL FL...PWAT VALUES ARND 1.50" AND A
VERY WEAK MID LVL CAP. H85-H70 LAPSE RATES ARND 5.5C/KM WILL POSE
LITTLE IF ANY OBSTRUCTION TO VERTICAL MOTION THIS AFTN...ESP GIVEN
CONVECTIVE TRIGGERS ARE IN THE L/M80S. ADDING TO THE MIX WILL BE AN
80-100KT H30-H20 JET OVER THE CENTRAL/ERN GOMEX NOSES ITS WAY ACRS
THE FL PENINSULA. SHRA/TSRA DVLPMNT WILL INITIALIZE BY MIDDAY OR
SHORTLY THEREAFTER.

IRONICALLY...THE EARLY START TO CONVECTION MAY ACTUALLY TEMPER THE
THREAT FOR SVR WX TODAY AS OVERALL HEATING POTENTIAL OF THE LCL
AIRMASS WILL BE LIMITED. FURTHERMORE...STRENGTH OF THE W/SW FLOW
WILL LIMIT SEABREEZE FORMATION TO POINTS S OF THE CAPE...EVEN THEN
INLAND PROGRESSION WILL NOT SURPASS THE I-95 CORRIDOR. CANNOT RULE
OUT STRONG TSRAS THIS AFTN/EVNG AS H50 TEMPS BTWN -9C/-10C AND A DRY
H70-H50 LYR WILL ADD TO DOWNBURST POTENTIAL...BUT STRONGEST ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE COASTAL COUNTIES.

&&

.AVIATION...THRU 04/12Z.
SFC WINDS: THRU 03/18Z...S/SW 8-12KTS. BTWN 03/18Z-03/20Z...S OF
KTIX BCMG S/SE 8-12KTS. BTWN 04/00Z-04/03Z...BCMG SW 3-7KTS.

VSBYS/WX/CIGS: THRU 03/17Z...PREVAILING VFR...LCL MVFR CIGS BTWN
FL020-030. BTWN 03/17Z-03/20Z...SCT MVFR SHRAS/ISOLD IFR TSRAS
AREAWIDE...MVG E/NE 15-20KTS. BTWN 03/20-03/24Z...E OF KDAB-KOBE SCT
MVFR SHRAS/IFR TSRAS...W OF KDAB-KOBE SCT MVFR SHRAS/ISOLD IFR
TSRAS. BTWN 04/00Z-04/04Z...S OF KISM-KTIX SCT MVFR SHRAS/ISOLD
IFR TSRAS.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST OBS FROM BUOY009 SUGGEST WIND FIELDS ARE A LITTLE UNDER
FORECAST...AT LEAST OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS...WITH S/SW FLOW BTWN15-
20KTS FOR THE PAST SVRL HRS. THE OFFSHORE WIND COMPONENT IS
GENERATING ROUGH CONDITIONS OVER THE LCL ATLC...BUOY NETWORK IS
MEASURING 2-4FT SEAS NEARSHORE...4-5FT OFFSHORE...ALL WITH DOMINANT
PDS AOB 5SEC. NEARSHORE WINDS S OF THE CAPE WILL BACK TO THE S/SE BY
LATE AFTN AS THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE DVLPS...BUT WILL HAVE LITTLE
IMPACT ON THE POOR BOATING CONDITIONS. OFFSHORE MOVING THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.

WILL MAKE NECESSARY WIND/SEA ADJUSTMENTS WITH THE MRNG UPDATE AND
RAISE A CAUTIONARY STATEMENT FOR THE GULF STREAM WATERS.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...BRAGAW
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...WIMMER





000
FXUS62 KMLB 030928
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
528 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.DISCUSSION...

...WARM AGAIN TODAY WITH SOME STRONG STORMS...

TODAY-TONIGHT...LOCAL ATMOSPHERE EAGER TO PROVE ITSELF LAST EVENING
AND WELL THRU THE OVERNIGHT. THE VIGOROUS SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION
FOUND SATISFACTION IN AN EARLY EVENING MERGER OVER THE INTERIOR
WHICH BECAME QUITE PRODUCTIVE. RESULTING ENHANCED VERTICAL
DEVLOPMENT WAS ABLE TO TAP THE STEERING FLOW THAT HAD VEERED TO THE
SW WHICH ENABLED CONVECTION TO TREK BACK TOWARD THE EAST
COAST...ESPECIALLY FOR BREVARD AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES. LOCAL RAIN
TOTALS ESTIMATED 3-4 INCHES IN SPOTS...EVEN IN PARTS OF SOUTH
BREAVRD OVERNIGHT. SPOTTY SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER S FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING AND SEEM TO BE PICKING UP A NE PUSH. SO...THIS AREA
WAS NEVER REALLY ABLE TO DIURNALLY RESET AS INFLUENCED BY
INCREASED MOISTURE...YESTERDAYS CONVECTION...AND AN IMPULSE
MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. LIKELY NEED TO ADD-IN
ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR MORNING COMMUTE AS WARM SECTOR ENVIRONMENT
EVOLVES.

SE U.S. PREPARING TO RECEIVE HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH AS UPPER
RIDGING PUSHES N OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL ENSUE AN ENERGIZED TWO
DAYS FOR THE PNSLA AS THE ADVERTISED FRONT WILL MAKE ITS MOVE. LOW-
LVL FLOW IS VEERED SW WHICH IS TYPICALLY A WARM PATTERN FOR ECFL.
MAX TEMPS ARE FORECAST INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S...SO WARM ONCE
AGAIN. RESIDUAL CLOUDINESS AHEAD OF DAILY CONVECTION WILL DETERMINE
THE EXTENT OF THE HEATING. MAY NOT BE QUITE AS HIGH AS INDICATED...
BUT PARTIAL THINNING WILL WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO QUICKLY RISE. EXPECT
STORMS TO FAVOR INLAND SECTIONS AND THE LOWER TREASURE COAST
FIRST...THEN FOCUS MORE TOWARD LOCATIONS EAST OF ORLANDO LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STORMS APT TO BE ON THE STRONG SIDE...
ESPECIALLY THOSE WHO ARE ABLE TO FEED ON THE BACKED LOW LEVEL WINDS
ALONG AND BEHIND THE ECSB. ECSB WILL NOT MAKE AS MUCH INLAND
PENETRATION HOWEVER. AREA HIGHLIGHTED BY SPC MARGINAL RISK.
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN WITH ISOLATED STORM TOTALS NEAR 3-4 INCHES AGAIN. THEN...THE
STRONG FRONT ADVANCES THRU N PNSLA TONIGHT KEEPING ASSOCIATED STORMS
IN THE FORECAST AIDED BY THE PLUNGING UPPER S/W AND TROUGH WITH
INCREASED MID/UPPER LVL WIND FLOW.

WED...DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE MID ATLC SEABOARD WILL
PUSH A LATE SEASON COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA. NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS PRECEDING THE FRONT EARLY IN THE DAY
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TIME OF FRONTAL PSG...WHICH WL OCCUR FROM
MID DAY THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON FROM N-S. SOME OF THE FAST MOVING
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF BRINGING GUSTY WINDS ALONG WITH HEAVY
RAIN AND HAIL. REMAINING BREEZY AND TURNING COOLER WED EVENING
WITH NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPS FALLING INTO THE 50S TO L60S BY EARLY
THU.

LATE WEEK...COOL AND DRY NW FLOW ACROSS THE SE STATES BEHIND A
DEEPENING CYCLONE ALONG THE MID ATLC SEABOARD WILL BRING
UNSEASONABLY COOL EVENINGS THU AND FRIDAY NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN THE
50S OVER INLAND LOCATIONS AND HIGHS RECOVERING BACK INTO THE 80S.
NO RAIN IS FORECAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

EXTENDED...A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED CONUS BLOCKING PATTERN OVER THE
CENTRAL US INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WL LEAVE THE LOCAL AREA WITH A
DRY FORECAST WITH SEASONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES FROM THE WEEKEND
AND INTO NEXT WEEK. SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE WRN ATLC IS SHOWN INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS WELL WILL LIMIT RAIN POTENTIAL THROUGH
NEXT TUE.

&&

.AVIATION...SPOTTY SHRA ALONG THE SPACE AND TREASURE COASTS SITES
THIS MORNING...ESP KVRB AND KMLB...WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING
CONVECTION WITH THE DAY. MAIN CONCERN IS FOR VCTS 18Z-00Z INLAND
SITES BUT FOCUS BACK TOWARD COASTAL SITES BEYOND 21Z. TEMPO 2SM
+TSRA LIKELY NEEDED.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
WED WILL RUN 10-15 KNOTS AND DRIVE SEAS 3-4 FEET AND LOCALLY UP TO
5 FEET WELL-OFFSHORE. ECSB WILL FORM BUT REMAIN CLOSE TO THE
COAST. OFFSHORE MOVING THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.

SEAS AROUND 3-4 FT WED WITH HIGHER SEAS DEVELOPING OFFSHORE ESP
BEHIND THE PSG OF THE COLD FRONT WED AFTN. HEADLINES WL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE WATERS BY WED AND INTO THU BEHIND
THE DEPARTING STRONG FRONT. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE WITH
LARGELY HIGH PRESSURE IN THE VCTY OF THE WATERS LATE IN THE WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  87  70  84  58 /  50  40  70  10
MCO  89  71  82  61 /  40  30  70  20
MLB  89  71  85  61 /  50  30  70  20
VRB  90  72  87  62 /  50  40  70  30
LEE  87  72  81  60 /  40  40  70  10
SFB  88  72  85  62 /  40  30  70  10
ORL  88  71  84  64 /  40  30  70  10
FPR  90  69  88  62 /  50  40  70  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM....JP





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