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000
FXUS62 KMLB 250733
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
332 AM EDT FRI APR 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY/TONIGHT...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST STATES
TODAY AND TOWARD FLORIDA LATE THIS EVENING. RIDGE AXIS OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL SHIFT SOUTH OF THE REGION WITH LOW
LEVEL WINDS BECOMING W/SW AND USHERING IN SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR.
THIS WILL PREVENT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT EVEN WITH SEA BREEZE COLLISION
LATE IN THE DAY THAT WILL OCCUR CLOSER TO THE EAST COAST DUE TO THE
MORE WESTERLY FLOW. MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND A LATER START
AND LESS INLAND PUSH OF THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL LEAD TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL REACH THE MID/UPPER
80S ALONG THE COAST TO UPPER 80S/AROUND 90 DEGREES OVER THE INTERIOR.

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP A POTENTIAL
FOR LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG ACROSS MUCH OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW-MID 60S.

SAT...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING OFF THE MID ATLC COAST EARLY SAT
WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO GA AND THEN OFF THE SE ATLC
COAST LATE IN THE DAY. LOW LVL WNW FLOW IN THE MORNING SHOULD BECOME
ONSHORE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE AND WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE AREA NEARBY. A DRY AIRMASS WITH PWATS AROUND AN INCH
AND VERY DRY AIR IN THE H7-H3 LAYER WILL LIMIT ANY CONVECTION EVEN
WITH AN EVENING SEA BREEZE COLLISION ACROSS THE INTERIOR. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S COAST TO UPPER
80S TO NEAR 90 ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

SUN...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE INTO THE ATLC ON SUNDAY
WITH LOW LVL SOUTHERLY FLOW REDEVELOPING. AIRMASS WILL BE INITIALLY
VERY DRY BUT MAY BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO GENERATE SOME LATE
AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER THE INTERIOR WITH CONVERGENCE FROM INLAND
MOVING SEA BREEZE FROM BOTH COASTS. HIGH TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE IN THE
MID 80S COAST TO AROUND 90 FOR THE INTERIOR.

MON-WED...A BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT OVER FLORIDA INTO MID WEEK...S-SE
LOW LVL FLOW AROUND THE ATLC SFC RIDGE AND A DRIER THAN NORMAL
AIRMASS WILL KEEP A PERSISTENT PATTERN OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS OVER
THE INTERIOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 80S
COAST TO UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 OVER THE INTERIOR WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 60S LOWER 70S.

THU-FRI...THE MID LVL RIDGE OVER FL WILL BE REPLACED BY A TROUGH
MOVING TOWARD N FL AND THE SE STATES. FOR THU...GFS INDICATES DEEPER
MOISTURE WITH A HIGHER AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
ACROSS THE NRN INTERIOR WITH LATE DAY SEA BREEZE INTERACTIONS. WILL
GO WITH 30 POPS NORTH TO 10 PCT S CSTL WHERE E COAST SEA BREEZE
SHOULD MOVE INLAND BY AFTERNOON. ON FRIDAY...PREFRONTAL MOISTURE
AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT SHOULD INCREASE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES. HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO GFS MOS AROUND 30 PERCENT. HIGHS MID
80S COAST TO UPPER 80S FOR THE INTERIOR.

&&

.AVIATION...PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL PRODUCE TEMPO IFR/MVFR CONDS
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT...MAINLY BETWEEN THE HOURS OF 09-13Z. OTHERWISE VFR CONDS
EXPECTED WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR BUILDING INTO THE AREA KEEPING RAIN
CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY/TONIGHT...SOUTHERLY WINDS UP TO 10-15 KNOTS EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL BECOME SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS. A S/SE WIND
COMPONENT WILL RETURN NEAR THE BREVARD/TREASURE COAST AS THE EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS THEN
INCREASE UP TO 10-15 KNOTS OFFSHORE AGAIN TONIGHT. SEAS WILL REMAIN
BETWEEN 2-3 FEET.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ACROSS THE
REGION WILL PRODUCE MIN RH VALUES AROUND 35-40 PERCENT OVER THE
INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 15
MPH.  HIGH TEMPS NEAR 90 ACROSS THE INTERIOR ON SAT/SUN WILL ALLOW
MIN RHS TO DROP TO BETWEEN 35 AND 40 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 15 MPH ACROSS THE INTERIOR EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  85  63  83  65 /   0  10   0   0
MCO  88  65  88  66 /   0  10  10   0
MLB  86  64  85  68 /  10  10   0   0
VRB  86  64  87  67 /  10  10   0   0
LEE  87  65  88  67 /   0  10  10  10
SFB  88  66  87  67 /   0  10  10   0
ORL  89  67  89  68 /   0  10  10   0
FPR  86  64  86  67 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...WEITLICH
LONG TERM....VOLKMER








000
FXUS62 KMLB 250105
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
905 PM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AFTER A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPED WITH THE COLLISION OF THE EAST COAST
SEA BREEZE AND ANOTHER BOUNDARY WHICH FORMED BETWEEN THE EAST AND
WEST COAST SEA BREEZES EARLIER THIS EVENING...THE ACTUAL SEA BREEZE
COLLISION HAS BEEN EQUALLY UNEVENTFUL. A FEW SMALL SHOWERS HAVE
POPPED UP IN THE COLLISION AREA ALONG THE ORANGE/LAKE COUNTY BORDER
BUT WILL DISSIPATE FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER PRODUCING SOME LOCALLY
MODERATE RAIN. LIGHT WINDS...CLEARING SKIES...AND PLENTY OF
MOISTURE WILL MAKE PATCHY FOG LIKELY AGAIN AROUND SUNRISE FRIDAY
WITH MODELS FAVORING LAKE COUNTY IN PARTICULAR. LOW LEVEL WINDS
LOOK LIKE THEY`LL STAY A BIT HIGHER AROUND DAYBREAK ALONG THE
SPACE AND TREASURE COASTS SO HAVE KEPT FOG OUT IN THOSE
AREAS...CONSISTENT WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST UPDATE. NO
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST UPDATES NECESSARY THIS EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...
PATCHY MVFR BR AROUND SUNRISE. LEE FAVORED FOR ANY IFR VISBYS.
VFR CONDITIONS AFTER ABOUT 13Z WHEN ANY FG/BR AND LOW CLOUDS
SHOULD LIFT.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS THIS EVENING AT BUOY 41009 GUSTING TO 15-20 KT BUT GUSTS
CLOSER TO 10 KT NEARSHORE. WINDS WILL DECREASE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS TO 10-15 KT OUT OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. SHOWERS POSSIBLE
OVER THE GULF STREAM FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  64  86  62  84 /  10  10  10  10
MCO  64  88  65  89 /  10  10  10  10
MLB  66  87  63  86 /  10  10  10  10
VRB  65  86  64  84 /  10  10  10  10
LEE  64  88  64  88 /  10  10  10  10
SFB  65  89  65  87 /  10  10  10  10
ORL  65  88  66  89 /  10  10  10  10
FPR  65  86  64  86 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...BOWEN
IMPACT WX...KELLY






000
FXUS62 KMLB 241806
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
205 PM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...

...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK...

THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO SWING
THROUGH THE PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON BUT ITS INFLUENCE ON ANY
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL STILL BE OVERSHADOWED BY THE DRY AIRMASS
IN PLACE ACROSS THE STATE. THERE IS A ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
PRESENT THIS AFTERNOON (SOUNDINGS THIS MORNING WERE HINTING AT IT
BETWEEN 4-6KFT) FOR CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT WITH THE MOST ROBUST CU
ALONG THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE AS IT PUSHES STEADILY INLAND. WITH
PREVAILING LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHEAST SYNOPTIC FLOW THE WEST COAST SEA
BREEZE HASN`T MADE IT QUITE AS FAR INLAND...BUT STILL EXPECT THEM TO
COLLIDE SOMEWHERE IN THE LAKE COUNTY/KISSIMMEE RIVER CORRIDOR AROUND
SUNSET. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH THIS COLLISION THROUGH EARLY
EVENING PRIMARILY ACROSS LAKE AND FAR WESTERN ORANGE/NW OSCEOLA
COUNTY.

WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AS A SYSTEM QUICKLY
MOVES ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND THE HIGH OVER THE ATLANTIC SCOOTS
FURTHER SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL ALLOW LIGHT DRAINAGE FLOW AND ANOTHER
ROUND OF LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 60S...EVEN ALONG MOST OF THE COAST.
WHILE SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME CALM...LOW LEVEL FLOW LOOKS A BIT
STRONGER THAN LAST NIGHT AND DRIER AIR WILL BE ADVECTING IN SO
FOG/STRATUS DOESN`T LOOK QUITE AS DENSE OR WIDESPREAD. HOWEVER STILL
EXPECT PATCHY FOG AROUND DAYBREAK.

FRIDAY...SYNOPTIC FLOW BECOMES STEADILY WEST-SOUTHWEST AS WE FEEL
THE INFLUENCE OF ANOTHER WEAK FRONT MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEAST WILL
LITTLE IMPACT ON PENINSULA FLORIDA. WIND DIRECTION WILL TAP INTO
DRIER AIR SO FORECAST LOOKS DRY OTHER THAN OVER THE GULF STREAM
WHERE A FEW SHOWERS MAY FORM IN THE MORNING. EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
WILL BE HELD OFF UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON AND REMAIN CLOSE TO THE COAST
AND LIKELY JUST FROM THE CAPE SOUTHWARDS. AS A RESULT IT WILL BE A
WARM AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S EVEN ALONG
THE COAST.

SAT-SUN...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE GOMEX ACROSS
SOUTH FL WILL COLLAPSE SAT AS A VERY WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS INTO
NRN FL AND THEN WASHES OUT. ANOTHER WEAK HIGH WILL BUILD FROM THE SE
STATES INTO THE ATLC FOR SUN. STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO
THE HIGH PLAINS WILL CAUSE FLAT MID LEVEL FLOW TO GRADUALLY AMPLIFY
INTO A SHORT WAVE RIDGE OVHD. WHILE THE FORECAST MAINTAINS A SMALL
LATE DAY SHOWER/TS THREAT VIS SEA BREEZE COLLISION OVER THE FAR WRN
INTERIOR...RISING H50 HGTS/TEMPS COULD TEMPER THAT SMALL-TO-BEGIN-
WITH THREAT. OTHERWISE...PARTLY SUNNY SKIES BOTH AFTERNOONS WITH
MAXES IN THE L-M80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND U80S TO AROUND 90F
INLAND. MINS MAINLY IN THE U60S.

MON-THU (PREV)...MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. WILL
SHIFT EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOW LEVEL SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL
MAINTAIN SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND STORMS ACROSS THE REGION BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS
ESPECIALLY WITH ANY SEA BREEZE INTERACTIONS LATER IN THE DAY. FLOW
BECOMES MORE SOUTHWEST TOWARD MID WEEK AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND TOWARDS FLORIDA. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS OF APRIL.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR. OCCASIONAL BKN DIURNAL CU FL040-050
THROUGH SUNSET. COLLISION OF EAST AND WEST SEABREEZES THIS AFTERNOON
VCNTY KLEE-KISM MAY GENERATE ISOLD SHRA BETWEEN 24/22Z AND 25/02Z.
PATCHY FOG/STRATUS 25/08Z-25/13Z WITH BEST COVERAGE IN AREAS NORTH
AND WEST OF I-4. DRY FORECAST FOR FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
DIURNAL CU.

&&

.MARINE...TONIGHT-FRIDAY...PREVAILING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AROUND
10KTS INTO THIS EVENING WITH EAST-SOUTHEAST 10-15KTS CLOSER TO THE
COAST WITH SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION. WINDS VEER SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
10-15KTS OVERNIGHT UNDER INFLUENCE FROM WEAK FRONT WELL TO THE NORTH
AND MOVEMENT OF HIGH TO OUR EAST. OVERALL WINDS SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
5-10KTS ON FRIDAY...WITH LATE DAY SEABREEZE BRINGING WINDS
EAST-SOUTHEAST AROUND 10KTS FROM CAPE CANAVERAL SOUTHWARDS NEAR THE
COAST. SEAS 1-3FT WITH DOMINANT PERIODS AROUND 8-9 SEC.

SAT-TUE...COLLAPSE OF SURFACE RIDGE WILL ALLOW SRLY WINDS TO SHIFT
TO NW-N ON SAT...BUT THEN QUICKLY VEER BACK ONSHORE BY SUN...AND
SRLY ONCE AGAIN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. SPEEDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 15KT
WHICH WILL KEEP THE STRETCH OF FINE BOATING WX CONTINUING. LITTLE
OR NO PROSPECT FOR SHOWERS OR STORMS UNTIL A SMALL CHANCE CREEPS
INTO THE FCST BY NEXT TUE. SEAS REMAIN BETWEEN 2-3 FEET.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SAT-SUN...MIN RH VALUES EACH AFTERNOON WILL REACH
BETWEEN 35-40 PERCENT ACROSS THE FAR INTERIOR BUT WINDS REMAIN
RELATIVELY LIGHT. NO RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY OR SATURDAY BUT A FEW
STORMS MAY DEVELOP LATE IN THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY WITH THE SEA BREEZE
COLLISION OVER THE INTERIOR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  64  86  62  84 /  10  10  10  10
MCO  64  88  65  89 /  10  10  10  10
MLB  66  87  63  86 /  10  10  10  10
VRB  65  86  64  84 /  10  10  10  10
LEE  64  88  64  88 /  20  10  10  10
SFB  65  89  65  87 /  10  10  10  10
ORL  65  88  66  89 /  10  10  10  10
FPR  65  86  64  86 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...MOSES
LONG TERM....CRISTALDI







000
FXUS62 KMLB 241337
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
937 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN US WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST
AND OFFSHORE THE CAROLINA COAST LATER TODAY...SHIFTING THE SYNOPTIC
WIND FLOW FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
ENOUGH FOR BOTH THE EAST AND WEST COAST SEA BREEZES TO FORM LATE
THIS MORNING AND PUSH INLAND...COLLIDING SOMEWHERE IN THE LAKE
COUNTY/KISSIMMEE RIVER CORRIDOR AROUND SUNSET.

THE AREA OF FOG THAT DEVELOPED NORTH AND WEST OF I-4 THIS MORNING IS
SLOWLY ERODING AND WE SHOULD SEE IT DISSIPATE COMPLETELY BY 11
AM.

THE QUESTION FOR TODAY CONTINUES TO BE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE SEA BREEZE COLLISION.
DESPITE VERY UNIMPRESSIVE SOUNDINGS THIS MORNING WITH PWATS AROUND
1" AND A NOTED CAP BETWEEN 800MB-750MB...MODELS STILL TRY TO DEVELOP
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS TODAY ARE EVEN LESS
ENTHUSIASTIC ABOUT BRINGING IN ANY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THE TAIL
END OF THE BOUNDARY THAT PUSHED INTO THE ATLANTIC TO OUR NORTHEAST
LAST NIGHT.

PERHAPS THE MOST TELLING STRIKE AGAINST ANY CONVECTION IS THE
SHORTWAVE AND COLD POOL CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AND
LOOP CURRENT...NO CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED UNDERNEATH OF IT
OVERNIGHT OR THIS MORNING. BASED ON THIS...WILL REMOVE THE MENTION
OF THUNDER AND CUT BACK THE MENTION OF ISOLATED SHOWERS TO WESTERN
ORANGE/LAKE COUNTY.

AFTERNOON HIGHS REACHING INTO THE MID-UPPER 80S INTERIOR AND LOW-MID
80S COAST.


&&

.AVIATION...
THE AREA OF FOG THAT DEVELOPED NORTH AND WEST OF I-4 THIS MORNING IS
SLOWLY ERODING BUT TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LINGER NW OF
KISM-KSFB-DAB THROUGH 15Z BEFORE BECOMING SKC. OCCASIONAL BKN CU
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON FL040-050. COLLISION OF EAST AND WEST
SEABREEZES THIS AFTERNOON VCNTY KLEE-KISM MAY GENERATE ISOLD SHRA
BETWEEN 24/22Z AND 25/02Z.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING UNDER WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
BECOMING SOUTHEAST 10KTS AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SLIDES INTO THE
ATLANTIC. EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL KICK IN AROUND 15 KNOTS
ESPECIALLY FROM CANAVERAL SOUTHWARD. SOUTHEAST/SOUTH WINDS AT 10-15
KNOTS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SEAS 1-2FT WITH
DOMINANT PERIODS AROUND 8 SEC.

&&


.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

MOSES/CRISTALDI








000
FXUS62 KMLB 240735
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
335 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY-TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL NORTH OF THE AREA WILL
SLIDE OFFSHORE. THIS WILL CAUSE THE GRADIENT WIND TO BECOME
SOUTHEAST TODAY AND SOUTHERLY LATE TONIGHT. THIS FLOW SHOULD NUDGE
UP THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE VALUES.

LATEST 500MB ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
EASTWARD TOWARDS THE EASTERN GULF. THOUGH IT IS ESSENTIALLY
CLOUDLESS AT THE PRESENT TIME...AS THE ASSOCIATED COOL POCKET
MOVES ACROSS THE PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
DESTABILIZE. GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE CAPE A LITTLE OVER
1000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH IS CONTINGENT UPON EROSION OF THE
PRESENT CAPPING INVERSION. THIS LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN THE WEAK
SHORTWAVE IN THE GULF AT THE CURRENT TIME.

THINK THAT ANY CHANCE FOR THUNDER WILL BE WITH THE COLLISION OF
THE EAST/WEST COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES. OUR LOCAL WRF MODEL
SUGGESTS THIS WILL OCCUR NEAR 00Z IN LAKE COUNTY. THIS IS WHERE
THE GFS GENERATED ITS MAX PRECIP. THEREFORE...HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR STORMS WEST OF A LINE FROM WESTERN ORANGE COUNTY TO
LAKE GEORGE. GIVEN THE LIMITED AMOUNT OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL
CONFINE THE RAIN CHANCES TO A RELATIVELY SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...
ROUGHLY 5 PM THROUGH 10 PM.

OTHERWISE WE ARE LOOKING AT A WARM DAY AND MILD NIGHT. TEMPS WILL
BE AT TO A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE THE READINGS FROM WED. PATCHY LATE
NIGHT FOG STILL POSSIBLE INLAND LATE TONIGHT.

FRI-SUN...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEST ATLANTIC SHIFTS FARTHER
EASTWARD FRIDAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE
SOUTHEAST STATES. PW VALUES ACTUALLY DECREASE LATE WEEK AS DRIER AIR
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS ANY ISOLATED AFTERNOON
CONVECTION LIMITED TO AREAS SOUTH OF THE TREASURE COAST...SO WILL
KEEP RAIN CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. TAIL
END OF FRONT WILL FADE AS IT MOVES TOWARD NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA
SATURDAY WITH WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST. WEAK AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE WEST ATLANTIC
SUNDAY. LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL INCREASE MOISTURE ENOUGH TO
MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY WITH THE SEA
BREEZE COLLISION OVER THE INTERIOR LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.

PARTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED EACH DAY WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING
ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOW-MID 80S ALONG THE COAST WITH
UPPER 80S/AROUND 90 DEGREES OCCURRING INLAND. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S WITH MIN TEMPS AROUND 70 POSSIBLE IN SOME
LOCATIONS SUNDAY NIGHT.

MON-WED...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. WILL SHIFT EAST
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOW LEVEL SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL MAINTAIN
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS ACROSS THE REGION BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS
ESPECIALLY WITH ANY SEA BREEZE INTERACTIONS LATER IN THE DAY. FLOW
BECOMES MORE SOUTHWEST TOWARD MID WEEK AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND TOWARDS FLORIDA. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS OF APRIL.

&&

.AVIATION...CAPE WIND PROFILERS SHOWING A BIT OF A LOW LEVEL JET
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND KEEPING THE BOUNDARY LAYER
SLIGHTLY MIXED. EXPECT WINDS TO EASE THOUGH AND PATCHY MVFR MIST
WILL OCCUR IN THE PRE DAWN HOURS. THE DAYTIME HOURS WILL BE VFR
EXCEPT FOR A SMALL AREA OVER THE INTERIOR LATE IN THE DAY WHERE
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR STORMS WITH THE EAST/WEST
SEA BREEZE COLLISION. THE AREAL COVERAGE WILL BE LOW SO WE CANNOT
PUT THIS INTO THE TAFS AT THE PRESENT TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY-TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SLIDING INTO THE ATLANTIC WILL
CAUSE A SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW TODAY...BECOMING SOUTH TONIGHT. SPEEDS
SHOULD BE AROUND 10 KNOTS...BUT THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL
LIKELY KICK IN AROUND 15 KNOTS ESPECIALLY FROM CANAVERAL SOUTHWARD.
SOUTHEAST/SOUTH WINDS AT 10-15 KNOTS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING HOURS.

FRI-MON...FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WINDS REMAIN LESS
THAN 15 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD INITIALLY OUT OF THE SOUTH FRIDAY
THEN BECOMING NORTHWEST TO NORTH SATURDAY. AS SEA BREEZE FORMS AND
MOVES INLAND SATURDAY AFTERNOON WINDS EVENTUALLY BECOME EAST VEERING
TO THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. SEAS REMAIN BETWEEN 2-3
FEET.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

FRI-SUN...MIN RH VALUES EACH AFTERNOON WILL REACH BETWEEN 35-40
PERCENT ACROSS THE FAR INTERIOR BUT WINDS REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT.
NO RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY OR SATURDAY BUT A FEW STORMS MAY DEVELOP LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY WITH THE SEA BREEZE COLLISION OVER THE
INTERIOR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  84  64  85  63 /  10  10  10  10
MCO  87  65  88  64 /  20  20  10  10
MLB  83  66  86  63 /  10  10  10  10
VRB  83  66  85  64 /  10  10  10  10
LEE  86  65  87  65 /  20  20  10  10
SFB  87  65  87  66 /  20  20  10  10
ORL  87  67  88  66 /  20  20  10  10
FPR  83  66  86  64 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LASCODY
LONG TERM....WEITLICH






000
FXUS62 KMLB 240133
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
933 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING EXCEPT A FEW CLOUDS WITH SEA
BREEZE COLLISION OCCURRING OVER WESTERN ORANGE COUNTY. NOT ENOUGH
MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE FOR COLLISION TO PRODUCE ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY. WINDS WILL DROP OFF OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AS SEA
BREEZES DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. MODELS SHOW
1000-850 MB WINDS NEAR CALM ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA BY EARLY
MORNING AND COMBINED WITH CLEAR SKIES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO
MID 60S...FOG WILL BE MORE LIKELY TONIGHT. HAVE EXPANDED PATCHY
FOG EVERYWHERE BUT THE IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE WINDS WILL REMAIN
SLIGHTLY ELEVATED. ALSO ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO
BASED ON LATEST MOS GUIDANCE. DON`T SEE ANYTHING TO PREVENT
TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TO OR VERY NEAR MORNING DEWPOINTS.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR BR POSSIBLE 9Z-12Z MOST SITES WITH PATCHY FOG BUT PARTICULARLY
INLAND. SHOWERS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON ALONG EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE WITH BEST CHANCE LATER AFTERNOON OVER LEE WITH SEA BREEZE
COLLISION.

&&

.MARINE...
BENIGN CONDITIONS WITH BUOY 41009 ONLY SHOWING 2 FT WAVE HEIGHT
THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL DROP OFF OVERNIGHT TO 5 KT OR LESS OUT OF
THE SOUTHEAST. CONTINUED SOUTHEAST WINDS THURSDAY INCREASING TO
10-15 KT BY AFTERNOON BUT WAVE HEIGHTS REMAIN AROUND 2 FT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  65  82  64  84 /   0  10  20  10
MCO  64  87  65  88 /   0  20  20  10
MLB  65  83  67  86 /   0  10  10  10
VRB  63  84  66  84 /   0  10  10  10
LEE  65  86  65  86 /   0  20  10  10
SFB  65  88  66  88 /   0  20  20  10
ORL  65  86  67  88 /   0  20  20  10
FPR  63  82  65  85 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...BOWEN
IMPACT WX....KELLY






000
FXUS62 KMLB 231917
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
317 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...VERY DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKING ITS
WAY INTO NORTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON MARKED BY A BAND OF ENHANCED
CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST INTO NORTH
FLORIDA.

THE STRONGER NW FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE THIS MORNING HAS
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS THE BOUNDARY DROPS IN. THIS HAS
ALLOWED BOTH THE EAST AND WEST COAST SEA BREEZES TO FORM WITH THE
WEST COAST SEA BREEZE A LITTLE MORE DOMINANT GIVEN THE LIGHT
WESTERLY SYNOPTIC FLOW. EVEN WITH THE MOISTURE POOLING AROUND THE
BOUNDARY...THERE DOESN`T APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH MOISTURE OR
INSTABILITY TO GENERATE SHOWERS WITH THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
COLLISION OVER THE INTERIOR SO WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY.

SKIES BECOMING CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT/CALM SURFACE WINDS. WINDS
JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE LOOK TO BE LIGHTER THAN LAST NIGHT SO FOG
SEEMS TO BE A BETTER POSSIBILITY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR
TOWARDS SUNRISE. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 60S.

THURSDAY...VERY DIFFUSE BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY DRIVEN BY SURFACE HIGH MOVING OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST. MODELS HAVE CONTINUE TO BE PERSISTENT IN BRINGING IN ENOUGH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO GENERATE SHOWERS ALONG THE AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZES. HAVE CONTINUE TO LIMIT MENTION OF SHOWERS TO THE INTERIOR
WITH THE SEA BREEZE COLLISION TOWARDS LATE AFTERNOON. HAVE CONTINUED
TO KEEP THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST AS THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE ABOVE
5000FT LOOKS MINIMAL AND CAPE VALUES ARE A RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE 500
J/KG. BUT MODELS DO SHOW THE LOW LEVEL CAP BEING MIXED OUT INTO THE
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE MID-UPPER 80S AND A WEAK
SHORTWAVE/VORT MAX PIVOTING ACROSS THE PENINSULA IN THE AFTERNOON
IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE COLLISION MAY GIVE ANY ACTIVITY THAT
DEVELOPS A BIT OF A BOOST. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS TO SEE IF
A THUNDER MENTION MAY BE WARRANTED. OTHERWISE...PARTLY SUNNY SKIES
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS REACHING THE LOW-MID 80S ALONG THE COAST AND
MID-UPPER 80S OVER THE INTERIOR.

THU NIGHT-SAT...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF AND WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL BRIDGE ITSELF OVER THE STATE STARTING ON FRIDAY. EXPECTING A
MOSTLY DRY FORECAST HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...THOUGH LINGERING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS MAY SPIT OUT A SHOWER OR TWO
ACROSS THE TREASURE COAST ON FRIDAY.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND WILL BE DRIVEN
BY DIURNAL/SEA-BREEZE CIRCULATIONS. AMPLE SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO GRADUALLY CLIMB INTO THIS WEEKEND. UPPER 80S TO NEAR
90 EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY INLAND SECTIONS WHERE
SEA BREEZE MAY NOT MAKE IT UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY.

SUN-WED (MODIFIED PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)...A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AFT
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL EXIST MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR SUNDAY
AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RISES UNDER S/SE FLOW. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
MIDWEST SHIFTS EASTWARD AS A DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND TOWARD CENTRAL FLORIDA
FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. GFS IS FASTER WITH THE COLD FRONT THAN
THE ECMWF WHICH LEADS TO SOME UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF ARRIVAL OF
THIS BOUNDARY. REGARDLESS...MOISTURE REMAINS SUFFICIENT INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK TO KEEP AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AFT SHOWERS AND
STORMS ALONG EAST COAST SEA BREEZE AND WITH ANY LATE DAY BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS. HIGHS TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
WITH SOME LOCATIONS CONTINUING TO REACH AROUND 90 DEGREES INLAND.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR WITH DAYTIME CU PRODUCING OCCASIONAL CIGS
FL040-050 THROUGH SUNSET. PATCHY MVFR FOG WITH OCCASIONAL IFR CIGS
DEVELOPING AGAIN OVERNIGHT WITH BEST COVERAGE  ALONG/NORTHWEST OF
I-4 AFTER 24/06Z. ISOLD SHRA POSSIBLE AFTER 24/18Z ALONG EAST COAST
SEA BREEZE...MAINLY AFTER 24/20Z WITH SEA BREEZE COLLISION WEST OF
KDED-KISM.

&&

.MARINE...

TONIGHT-THURSDAY...EAST COAST SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION HAS KICKED IN
ALONG THE COAST RESULTING IN EAST WINDS AROUND 10KTS NEARSHORE WITH
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS FURTHER OFFSHORE. PREVAILING FLOW BECOMES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AS WEAK BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO THE REGION
AND DISSIPATES AND HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST.
PREVAILING FLOW AROUND THE HIGH INTO THURSDAY WILL KEEP WINDS
EAST-SOUTHEAST WITH A SPEED ENHANCEMENT IN THE AFTERNOON DUE TO THE
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE TO 10-15KTS. SEAS 2-3FT AT 8-9SEC.

FRI-SUN...HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL LEAD TO GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS FRIDAY WILL
DECREASE FURTHER INTO THE WEEKEND. SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL
REMAIN BELOW 4 FEET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  65  82  64  84 /   0  10  20  10
MCO  64  87  65  88 /   0  20  20  10
MLB  66  83  67  86 /   0  10  10  10
VRB  63  84  66  84 /   0  10  10  10
LEE  65  86  65  86 /   0  20  10  10
SFB  65  88  66  88 /   0  20  20  10
ORL  66  86  67  88 /   0  20  20  10
FPR  63  82  65  85 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...MOSES
LONG TERM....ULRICH







000
FXUS62 KMLB 231320
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
920 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...

WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE REGION TODAY WITH
ASSOCIATED SURFACE BOUNDARY SLIDING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND INTO
THE ATLANTIC TO OUR NORTHEAST LATER TODAY. MORNING SOUNDINGS ACROSS
THE PENINSULA REMAIN DRY AT 1" OR LESS AND UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY DON`T SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
ADVECTION WITH THE BOUNDARY. SO THE DRY FORECAST CONTINUES WITH
AFTERNOON CUMULUS DEVELOPING LEADING TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

915 MHZ WIND PROFILER SHOWS A FAIRLY STOUT 10-15KTS NW WIND IN THE
LOWER LEVELS WHICH WILL MIX DOWN IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AS THE
NOCTURNAL INVERSION LIFTS. EXPECT SOME WEAKENING OF THE WINDS AS THE
BOUNDARY MOVES FURTHER SOUTH WHICH WILL ALLOW THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE TO PUSH SLOWLY INLAND THIS AFTERNOON.

TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO MODIFY INLAND WITH READINGS REACHING THE MID
80S. COASTAL SECTIONS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 80S BEFORE THE SEA
BREEZE KICKS IN.

&&

.AVIATION...
LINGERING GROUND FOG/MIST CLEARING BY 14Z THEN PREVAILING VFR WITH
DAYTIME CU PRODUCING OCCASIONAL CIGS FL040-050. ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
FOG ALONG/NORTHWEST OF I-4 MAY BE IN THE CARDS AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10KTS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE INTO THE AFTERNOON AS AS FRONTAL TROUGH PULLS SEAWARD TO
THE NORTH OF OUR WATERS. THE DAYTIME SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION WILL
KICK IN ALONG THE COAST BUT LOOKS TO ONLY BE AROUND 10 KNOTS.

PREVAILING FLOW BECOMES EAST-SOUTHEAST 10KTS OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE
HIGH CENTERED WELL TO NORTH (BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONTAL TROUGH).
SEAS 2-4FT THIS MORNING BECOMING 1-3FT THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

MOSES/BLOTTMAN








000
FXUS62 KMLB 230737
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
337 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY-TONIGHT...THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE GFS SINCE 24
HOURS AGO. A FRONTAL TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST/SOUTHEAST OFF THE COAST
TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA TODAY. AS THE TROUGH PUSHES SEAWARD THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL EASE AND WESTERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH. THIS
WILL ALLOW THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE TO PUSH SLOWLY INLAND THIS
AFTERNOON. THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN DRY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
ONLY RISING SLIGHTLY FROM THE EARLY DAY VALUES AROUND 1 INCH.
THEREFORE WILL MAINTAIN OUR CURRENT DRY FORECAST. TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TO MODIFY INLAND WITH READINGS REACHING THE MID 80S.
COASTAL SECTIONS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 80S BEFORE THE SEA BREEZE
KICKS IN.

THETA E PROGS SHOW THAT THE WESTERN END OF THIS BACK DOOR FRONT
WILL NOT MAKE IT INTO THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT. SOMETIMES WITH THESE
WEAK BOUNDARIES THERE IS SOME PRE FRONTAL MOISTENING...SO WITH
LIGHT WINDS THERE SEEMS TO BE SOME CHANCE FOR LATE NIGHT FOG.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME OVERNIGHT STRATOCUMULUS THOUGH...
SO WILL ONLY MENTION PATCHY FOG FOR NOW ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

THU...TAIL END OF A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL EXIST NEAR TO JUST
OFFSHORE OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA AND WILL GRADUALLY FADE THROUGH
THE DAY. MODELS SHOW ENOUGH INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THIS
BOUNDARY FOR ISOLATED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT MAINLY ALONG ANY SEA BREEZE
COLLISION THAT OCCURS ACROSS THE INTERIOR LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WITH THE COLLISION CURRENTLY LOOKS LOW. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW A LOW LEVEL INVERSION THAT WILL EVENTUALLY WEAKEN
INTO LATE DAY WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND APPROACH OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE
ALOFT. HOWEVER RESULTING CAPE VALUES SEEM FAIRLY LOW...LESS THAN 500
J/KG. ADDING TO THAT...SPC CURRENTLY DOESN`T HAVE A GENERAL
THUNDERSTORM RISK FOR THE PENINSULA ON DAY 2. THEREFORE WILL KEEP
THUNDERSTORM MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. PARTLY SUNNY SKIES
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS REACHING THE LOW-MID 80S ALONG THE COAST AND
MID-UPPER 80S OVER THE INTERIOR.

FRI-SUN...HIGH PRESSURE SOUTHEAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL
SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE OF
THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS NOT EXPECTED TO
PROGRESS SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA AS RIDGE AXIS REMAINS IN
PLACE OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL CONTINUE WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MAX TEMPS AS HIGH AS THE UPPER
80S/LOW 90S OVER THE INTERIOR. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRI/SAT AND
THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AFT SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL EXIST
MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR SUNDAY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RISES UNDER
S/SE FLOW.

MON-WED...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST SHIFTS EASTWARD AS A DIGGING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES ATTENDANT COLD FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
AND TOWARD CENTRAL FLORIDA FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. GFS IS
FASTER WITH THE COLD FRONT THAN THE ECMWF WHICH LEADS TO SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF ARRIVAL OF THIS BOUNDARY. REGARDLESS...
MOISTURE REMAINS SUFFICIENT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK TO KEEP AT LEAST
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AFT SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE AND WITH ANY LATE DAY BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS. HIGHS TO
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH SOME LOCATIONS
CONTINUING TO REACH AROUND 90 DEGREES INLAND.

&&

.AVIATION...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MVFR MIST IN THE PRE DAWN
HOURS AT MOST SITES AS TEMP/DEW POINT SPREADS ARE MOSTLY 3 DEGREES
OR LESS AT THE PRESENT TIME. THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME IFR CEILINGS
AS THE SATELLITE FOG PRODUCT HAS BEEN SHOWING SOME STRATUS WEST TO
NORTHWEST OF KLEE EARLY THIS MORNING.  THE DAYTIME LOOKS TO BE VFR.
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR FOG ALONG/NORTHWEST OF I-4 MAY BE IN THE CARDS
AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY-TONIGHT...OFFSHORE GRADIENT WIND EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
DIMINISH BY THIS AFTERNOON AS FRONTAL TROUGH PULLS SEAWARD TO THE
NORTH OF OUR WATERS. THE DAYTIME SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION WILL KICK
IN ALONG THE COAST BUT LOOKS TO ONLY BE AROUND 10 KNOTS. THEN
OVERNIGHT A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW IS INDICATED DUE TO SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED WELL TO OUR NORTH (BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONTAL
TROUGH). SPEEDS SHOULD CONTINUE 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

THU-SUN...EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 10-15 KNOTS THURSDAY BECOME
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES SOUTHEAST OF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST. AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SHIFTS FARTHER EAST INTO
THE WEEKEND...RIDGE AXIS WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA WITH WINDS
WEAKENING SLIGHTLY TO AROUND 5-10 KNOTS. SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL
REMAIN AT OR BELOW 4 FEET.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MIN RH VALUES ARE FORECAST AT OR ABOVE 35 PERCENT AND WINDS LESS
THAN 15 MPH THROUGH LATE WEEK.

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  81  63  82  65 /   0  10  20  20
MCO  85  63  87  65 /   0  10  20  20
MLB  81  64  83  67 /   0   0  10  10
VRB  82  63  84  67 /   0   0  10  10
LEE  86  64  86  65 /   0  10  20  10
SFB  86  64  86  66 /   0  10  20  20
ORL  85  66  86  67 /   0  10  20  20
FPR  81  64  84  66 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LASCODY
LONG TERM....WEITLICH






000
FXUS62 KMLB 230108
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
908 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GULF IS NOSING INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL FLORIDA...PARTICULARLY LAKE COUNTY AS FAR AS THE LOCAL
FORECAST AREA IS CONCERNED...AND THIS SHOULD BE THE MOST FAVORABLE
AREA FOR PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
HOURS. FORECAST REMAINS DRY OVERNIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES SIMILAR
TO THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS AROUND 60 DEGREES. MINOR TWEAKS TO THE
FORECAST BUT NOTHING SIGNIFICANT.

&&

.AVIATION...
OCCASIONAL HIGH CIGS AROUND FL150 AS A THIN BAND OF
CLOUDS...CURRENTLY FROM ISM TO SFB...MOVES THROUGH TO THE SOUTHEAST.
PATCHY MVFR FOG MOST LIKELY TO AFFECT LEE BUT POSSIBLE AT OTHER
INLAND SITES 10Z-13Z AS SURFACE WINDS LIGHTEN. VFR ALL SITES AFTER
EARLY MORNING FOG/LOW CLOUDS BURN OFF.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT EAST NORTHEAST WINDS THIS EVENING WILL PICK UP A BIT
OVERNIGHT TO ABOUT 10-15 KT OUT OF THE WEST WITH ARRIVAL OF A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEFORE DECREASING AGAIN DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
SEAS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH WITH GENERALLY 3-4 FT BY MORNING. NO RAIN
EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  59  81  65  82 /   0   0  10  20
MCO  60  86  65  88 /   0   0  10  20
MLB  59  83  66  84 /   0   0  10  10
VRB  60  84  64  84 /   0   0  10  10
LEE  61  86  65  86 /   0   0  10  20
SFB  62  85  66  87 /   0   0  10  20
ORL  62  86  67  87 /   0   0  10  20
FPR  61  82  65  84 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...BOWEN
IMPACT WX....VOLKMER






000
FXUS62 KMLB 221922
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
322 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE HAS FORMED ALONG
ALL BUT THE VOLUSIA COUNTY COAST THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH IT HAS NOT
PUSHED MUCH FURTHER INLAND THAN US1 AT THIS HOUR. WINDS WILL SWITCH
ALONG THE VOLUSIA COAST AS WELL THOUGH LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
OVERALL SEA BREEZE NOT MAKING IT MUCH FURTHER INLAND THAN I-95. THE
PREVAILING LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW HAS ADVECTED HIGHER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE PENINSULA FROM THE GULF...AND PARTLY TO
OCCASIONALLY MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN CUMULUS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNSET.

MOST OF THE CUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET THROUGH THE HIGHER
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HELP WITH FOG FORMATION LATER TONIGHT AS
WINDS GO CALM OR NEARLY SO UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WEAK GULF OF
MEXICO HIGH. FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST WILL
MAKE FURTHER SOUTHWARD PROGRESS OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL ONLY REACH
NORTH FLORIDA BY DAYBREAK. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOW
60S. BEST FOG FORMATION WILL BE OVER THE INTERIOR...ESPECIALLY LAKE
COUNTY...BUT A FEW SPOTS OF FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST IN
FAVORED AREAS.

WEDNESDAY...WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE SWINGS THROUGH THE PENINSULA
DURING THE DAY WITH ASSOCIATED BACKDOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING EAST
INTO THE ATLANTIC. THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE BOUNDARY LOOKS TO HANG UP
SOMEWHERE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN SECTIONS BY LATE IN THE DAY BUT THERE
DOESN`T LOOK TO BE ENOUGH MOISTURE ADVECTION WITH IT FOR ANY SHOWER
MENTION. FLOW WILL REMAIN LIGHT ENOUGH FOR BOTH SEA BREEZES TO FORM
IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE EAST COAST MAKING A LITTLE MORE INLAND
PROGRESS THAN THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS REACHING INTO THE MID 80S
OVER THE INTERIOR AND LOW 80S ALONG THE COAST.

THURS-FRI...TAIL END OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER THE REGION
INTO THURSDAY AND MODELS ARE HINTING THAT WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE
POOLED ALONG IT FOR SHOWERS TO BE GENERATED ALONG THE AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZE. EAST COAST SEABREEZE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE AS SYNOPTIC FLOW
TURNS EAST-SOUTHEAST AROUND HIGH PUSHING OFF CAROLINA/GEORGIA COAST.
BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE WITH LATE DAY COLLISION OVER THE
INTERIOR. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE RELATIVELY LOW
CAPE AS WELL AS DEPTH OF MOISTURE SO HAVE KEPT THE MENTION OF
THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST.

CONDITIONS LOOK DRY ON FRIDAY AS AREA IS PLACED BACK UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE AXIS FROM THE ATLANTIC INTO THE GULF AND AHEAD
OF THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. TEMPS WILL
GRADUALLY MODIFY TO ABOVE NORMAL...WITH LOWS THU MORNING IN THE MID
60S AND HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 80S RIGHT ALONG THE COAST AND MID-UPPER
80S INLAND.

FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SAT-MON...ANOTHER WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION
ON SAT WITH LITTLE FANFARE AS LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE PREVENTS AND SIGNIFICANT INTRUSION OF
MOISTURE. THE FLOW ALOFT LOOKS NEARLY ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY RIDGED FOR
MOST OF THE PERIOD AND FOR NOW THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY. TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID 80S ALONG THE
COAST AND UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 INLAND.

&&

.AVIATION...
DIURNAL CU PRODUCING OCCASIONAL CIGS FL040-050 ACROSS THE REGION
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH WITH SUNSET. FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED
AFTER 23/04Z WITH BEST COVERAGE NORTH AND WEST OF I-4. PREVAILING
MVFR IN THESE AREAS THROUGH 23/13Z WITH LCL IFR. PATCHY MVFR FOG
ELSEWHERE. PREVAILING VFR AFTER FOG/STRATUS LIFT IN MORNING WITH
MORE DIURNAL CU.

&&

.MARINE...

TONIGHT...SEAS HAVE CONTINUED TO DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON WITH BUOY
41009 NOW DOWN TO 4FT WITH DOMINANT PERIODS 11 SEC. OBS SHOW THAT
WHILE WINDS HAVE BECOME EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR THE COAST...THE SEA
BREEZE HAS NOT YET EXPANDED TO REACH BUOY 41009 WHICH REMAINS
NORTH-NORTHWEST. OVERALL LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING
WITH ONSHORE FLOW 5-10KTS WITHIN 10-20NM OF THE COAST AND
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS FURTHER OFFSHORE. WINDS WILL BECOME
WEST-SOUTHWEST LATER TONIGHT AS WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS INTO THE
REGION WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 10-15KTS THROUGH DAYBREAK. SEAS
2-4FT NEARSHORE AND 4-5FT OFFSHORE WITH DOMINANT PERIODS 9-11SEC.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW AROUND 10KTS TO START OF
THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT PASSES EAST
OF AREA. FLOW WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH FOR EAST COAST SEA BREEZE TO FORM
AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON WITH WINDS NEARSHORE BECOMING EAST AROUND
10KTS IN THE AFTERNOON. PREVAILING FLOW TURNS EAST-SOUTHEAST WED
NIGHT INTO THURS PICKING UP TO 10-15KTS INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EAVE
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF CAROLINA COAST. SEAS UP TO 3-4FT OFFSHORE
AND 2-3FT NEARSHORE.

FRI-SUN...AREA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF RIDGE AXIS ACROSS
SOUTHERN HALF OF FLORIDA LEADING TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS 10KTS OR
LESS IN THE NIGHTS AND MORNINGS BECOMING SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOONS
WITH THE SEABREEZE. SEAS 2-3FT. NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  59  81  65  82 /   0   0  10  20
MCO  60  86  65  88 /   0   0  10  20
MLB  59  83  66  84 /   0   0  10  10
VRB  60  84  64  84 /   0   0  10  10
LEE  61  86  65  86 /   0   0  10  20
SFB  62  85  66  87 /   0   0  10  20
ORL  62  86  67  87 /   0   0  10  20
FPR  61  82  65  84 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

FORECAST...MOSES
IMPACT WEATHER/AVIATION....BLOTTMAN








000
FXUS62 KMLB 221332
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
932 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...AFTER A COOL START...WE WILL SEE A WARMER DAY ACROSS
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA AS THE AREA SITS ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. LIGHT WEST-NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY...WITH ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING
ALONG THE COAST WITH THE SEA BREEZE IN THE AFTERNOON.

MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS PRETTY DRY WITH
PWATS ACROSS THE PENINSULA 1" OR LESS. MOST OF THE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE LIES IN THE UPPER LEVELS WHERE A PASSING 75-80KT JET WILL
BRING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN CIRRUS AND A FEW CU.

HIGH TEMPS WILL REACH INTO THE UPPER 70S/AROUND 80 ALONG THE COAST
AND LOW-MID 80S OVER THE INTERIOR.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR WITH OCCASIONAL BKN CIRRUS FL200-FL250.
MAY ALSO SEE SOME BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO VSBY NORTH AND WEST OF THE I-4
CORRIDOR AFTER 23/03Z.

&&

.MARINE...
A NORTHEAST LONG PERIOD SWELL CONTINUES OVER THE LOCAL ATLANTIC THIS
MORNING KEEPING SEAS AROUND 5 TO 6 FEET OFFSHORE AS SEEN AT BUOY
41009.

AREA REMAINS ON EASTERN SIDE OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF
WITH GRADIENT LIGHT ENOUGH TO ALLOW SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP IN THE
AFTERNOON. GENERALLY WILL SEE WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS 5-10KTS THIS
MORNING BECOMING EAST 10KTS NEAR THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL
SEE GENERALLY VARIABLE 5KTS OR LESS FURTHER OFFSHORE. OFFSHORE FLOW
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AGAIN THIS EVENING WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO
10 TO 15 KTS OFFSHORE LATE OVERNIGHT NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET AS AN
UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE DRIVES A WEAK SURFACE FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO
NORTH-CENTRAL FL. NO SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS OR STORMS ARE FORECAST WITH
THIS WEAK SYSTEM BUT SPRINKLES WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
GULF STREAM.

IT LOOKS LIKE SEAS WILL CONTINUE AROUND 3-5FT NEARSHORE AND 4-6FT
OFFSHORE...BUT WITH WINDS SO LIGHT A CAUTIONARY STATEMENT WILL NOT
BE NEEDED.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

MOSES/PENDERGRAST/BLOTTMAN









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