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000
FXUS62 KMLB 251839
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
239 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH OFF TO OUR EAST OVERNIGHT WHILE SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT
COOL DRY AIR INTO THE REGION WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE
UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THIN LINE OF LIGHT
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE GULF
STREAM THIS AFTERNOON..BUT CURRENT RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS KEEP
IT OFF THE COAST. GIVEN THAT IT IS BEING DRIVEN BY THE WARM GULF
STREAM...NO IMPACTS TO LAND ARE EXPECTED OTHER THAN A FEW MORE
STRATOCU ALONG THE COAST.

LOW CURRENTLY JUST EAST OF THE BAHAMAS WILL BE WELL OUT OVER THE
ATLANTIC BY THIS EVENING...ALLOWING PRESSURE GRADIENT TO RELAX
ENOUGH THAT MOST PLACES WILL DROP TO 5 MPH OR LESS UNDER
NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS.

COOL AIR ADVECTION WILL DROP OVERNIGHT LOWS A FEW DEGREES FROM THIS
MORNING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S FOR ALL BUT THE BARRIER ISLANDS OF
THE BREVARD AND TREASURE COASTS WHICH WILL STAY IN THE LOW 60S. THE
COLDER COASTAL TEMPS ARE CONTINGENT ON WINDS BACKING OUT OF THE NNW
OVERNIGHT...IF THEY REMAIN MORE NORTHERLY OR N-NORTHEAST
TEMPERATURES MAY REMAIN A FEW DEGREES HIGHER.

SUNDAY...ANOTHER PLEASANT FLORIDA FALL DAY AS SURFACE HIGH CENTERS
ACROSS THE REGION BY THE AFTERNOON. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH
OCCASIONAL MARINE STRATOCU ALONG THE TREASURE COAST...THOUGH MODELS
INDICATE SIGNIFICANT DRYING EVEN IN THE LOWEST LEVELS. NORTH WINDS
WILL TURN NE-E IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE COAST WITH SPEEDS AROUND
10 MPH. HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST AND UPPER 70S AT
THE BEACHES AND IMMEDIATE COAST.

MODIFIED PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MON-FRI...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL TRANSIT THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK
AS SURFACE HIGH CENTER SLIDES SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAROLINA COAST
INTO THE ATLANTIC. POSITION OF THE HIGH WILL VEER WINDS TO THE EAST
BY MONDAY WITH THE RIDGE AXIS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD BY WEDNESDAY.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING A GRADUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTENING PROCESS.
MODELS KEEP DEEPEST MOISTURE WELL TO THE SOUTH SUPPRESSED BY THE
RIDGE...THOUGH ALL SHOW INCREASING MOISTURE BELOW 5000FT MON NIGHT
INTO TUES. SO WILL KEEP MON AND TUE DRY THEN BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR ATLANTIC SHOWERS STARTING TUE NIGHT AND CONTINUING THRU
MIDWEEK...PRIMARILY ALONG THE COAST.

SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS MORNING MON THEN ONSHORE FLOW WILL PRODUCE
MILD LOWS IN THE MID 60S INTERIOR AND UPPER 60S/NR 70 COAST. HIGH
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID 80S...A FEW UPPER 80S
POSSIBLE WED INTERIOR.

THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN COULD BE FRI ASSOCIATED WITH A COOL
FRONT BUT MODELS DISAGREE HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE. THE
ECMWF SOLUTION SHOWING A STRONG S/W TROUGH DIVING SOUTH FROM THE
GREAT LAKES AND DEVELOPING A CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE SE U.S. LOOKS
SUSPICIOUS. IT IS NOT UNUSUAL FOR COOL FRONTS TO COME THROUGH DRY IF
MOISTURE IS TOO LIMITED. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE DRIER GFS (20
PERCENT) FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. OCCASIONAL CIGS FROM MARINE STRATOCU FL03-050
BRUSHING COAST.

&&

.MARINE...

TONIGHT...LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO RELAX AS SURFACE LOW
MOVES FURTHER OUT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GULF.
GENERALLY NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING VEERS
NORTH-NORTHEAST LATER TONIGHT AND EAST-NORTHEAST LATE ON SUN.
THOUGH THERE`S BEEN SOME GUSTINESS AT LOCAL C-MANS AND
BUOYS...SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE GENERALLY REMAINED AROUND 15KTS WITH AN
18Z SHIP OB IN THE GULF STREAM SUPPORTING THOSE OBS. WINDS 15KTS
OF THE GULF STREAM WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING BECOMING 10-15KTS
OVER ALL THE WATERS OVERNIGHT. SEAS UP TO 5FT OVER THE GULF STREAM
AND 3-4FT ELSEWHERE.

SUNDAY...NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE TO EASE THROUGH THE DAY AS
SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO MOVE OVERHEAD WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY AROUND
10KTS. SEAS 3-4FT...REMAINING CHOPPY ESPECIALLY OVER THE GULF STREAM
GIVEN THE NORTHERLY COUNTER COMPONENT.

SEAS WILL BE SLOWER TO SUBSIDE WITH 4-6 FT AND CHOPPY OVER THE GULF
STREAM AND 3-5 FT ELSEWHERE. INTRACOASTAL WATERS WILL ALSO CONTINUE
TO BE CHOPPY.

MONDAY-WEDNESDAY...SURFACE HIGH CENTER MOVES SOUTHEAST OFF CAROLINA
COAST VEERING WINDS TO THE EAST FOR MON AND TUES WITH AXIS OVERHEAD
BY WEDNESDAY. SEAS 2-3FT WITH UP TO 4FT WELL OFFSHORE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

THIS AFTERNOON...MIN RH VALUES SEEM TO BE BOTTOMING OUT BETWEEN 35
AND 40 PERCENT ALONG AND WEST OF I-4 WHERE WINDS ALSO REMAIN LIGHTER
FROM THE NORTH. BREEZY WINDS 10-15MPH ALONG THE COAST HAVE GAINED A
BIT OF AN ONSHORE COMPONENT WHICH HAS HALTED ANY FURTHER RH DROPS.

RH VALUES EXPECTED TO DROP TO 30-35 PERCENT WEST OF I-4 ON SUNDAY
AFTN BUT N-NE WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN 10MPH OR LESS ALSO LEADING TO
POOR TO FAIR DISPERSIONS. DEVELOPING EASTERLY FLOW FROM MONDAY
ONWARDS IS EXPECTED TO MITIGATE LOWER RH VALUES...THOUGH THE
NORTHERN INTERIOR MAY SEE MIN RH VALUES AROUND 40 PERCENT ON MON
AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  57  81  56  84 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  56  82  58  86 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  60  80  60  83 /   0   0   0   0
VRB  58  81  62  84 /   0   0   0   0
LEE  55  82  57  86 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  56  82  58  86 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  59  81  61  86 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  58  80  61  83 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...MOSES
IMPACT WEATHER....GLITTO









000
FXUS62 KMLB 251839
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
239 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH OFF TO OUR EAST OVERNIGHT WHILE SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT
COOL DRY AIR INTO THE REGION WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE
UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THIN LINE OF LIGHT
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE GULF
STREAM THIS AFTERNOON..BUT CURRENT RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS KEEP
IT OFF THE COAST. GIVEN THAT IT IS BEING DRIVEN BY THE WARM GULF
STREAM...NO IMPACTS TO LAND ARE EXPECTED OTHER THAN A FEW MORE
STRATOCU ALONG THE COAST.

LOW CURRENTLY JUST EAST OF THE BAHAMAS WILL BE WELL OUT OVER THE
ATLANTIC BY THIS EVENING...ALLOWING PRESSURE GRADIENT TO RELAX
ENOUGH THAT MOST PLACES WILL DROP TO 5 MPH OR LESS UNDER
NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS.

COOL AIR ADVECTION WILL DROP OVERNIGHT LOWS A FEW DEGREES FROM THIS
MORNING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S FOR ALL BUT THE BARRIER ISLANDS OF
THE BREVARD AND TREASURE COASTS WHICH WILL STAY IN THE LOW 60S. THE
COLDER COASTAL TEMPS ARE CONTINGENT ON WINDS BACKING OUT OF THE NNW
OVERNIGHT...IF THEY REMAIN MORE NORTHERLY OR N-NORTHEAST
TEMPERATURES MAY REMAIN A FEW DEGREES HIGHER.

SUNDAY...ANOTHER PLEASANT FLORIDA FALL DAY AS SURFACE HIGH CENTERS
ACROSS THE REGION BY THE AFTERNOON. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH
OCCASIONAL MARINE STRATOCU ALONG THE TREASURE COAST...THOUGH MODELS
INDICATE SIGNIFICANT DRYING EVEN IN THE LOWEST LEVELS. NORTH WINDS
WILL TURN NE-E IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE COAST WITH SPEEDS AROUND
10 MPH. HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST AND UPPER 70S AT
THE BEACHES AND IMMEDIATE COAST.

MODIFIED PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MON-FRI...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL TRANSIT THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK
AS SURFACE HIGH CENTER SLIDES SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAROLINA COAST
INTO THE ATLANTIC. POSITION OF THE HIGH WILL VEER WINDS TO THE EAST
BY MONDAY WITH THE RIDGE AXIS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD BY WEDNESDAY.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING A GRADUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTENING PROCESS.
MODELS KEEP DEEPEST MOISTURE WELL TO THE SOUTH SUPPRESSED BY THE
RIDGE...THOUGH ALL SHOW INCREASING MOISTURE BELOW 5000FT MON NIGHT
INTO TUES. SO WILL KEEP MON AND TUE DRY THEN BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR ATLANTIC SHOWERS STARTING TUE NIGHT AND CONTINUING THRU
MIDWEEK...PRIMARILY ALONG THE COAST.

SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS MORNING MON THEN ONSHORE FLOW WILL PRODUCE
MILD LOWS IN THE MID 60S INTERIOR AND UPPER 60S/NR 70 COAST. HIGH
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID 80S...A FEW UPPER 80S
POSSIBLE WED INTERIOR.

THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN COULD BE FRI ASSOCIATED WITH A COOL
FRONT BUT MODELS DISAGREE HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE. THE
ECMWF SOLUTION SHOWING A STRONG S/W TROUGH DIVING SOUTH FROM THE
GREAT LAKES AND DEVELOPING A CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE SE U.S. LOOKS
SUSPICIOUS. IT IS NOT UNUSUAL FOR COOL FRONTS TO COME THROUGH DRY IF
MOISTURE IS TOO LIMITED. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE DRIER GFS (20
PERCENT) FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. OCCASIONAL CIGS FROM MARINE STRATOCU FL03-050
BRUSHING COAST.

&&

.MARINE...

TONIGHT...LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO RELAX AS SURFACE LOW
MOVES FURTHER OUT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GULF.
GENERALLY NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING VEERS
NORTH-NORTHEAST LATER TONIGHT AND EAST-NORTHEAST LATE ON SUN.
THOUGH THERE`S BEEN SOME GUSTINESS AT LOCAL C-MANS AND
BUOYS...SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE GENERALLY REMAINED AROUND 15KTS WITH AN
18Z SHIP OB IN THE GULF STREAM SUPPORTING THOSE OBS. WINDS 15KTS
OF THE GULF STREAM WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING BECOMING 10-15KTS
OVER ALL THE WATERS OVERNIGHT. SEAS UP TO 5FT OVER THE GULF STREAM
AND 3-4FT ELSEWHERE.

SUNDAY...NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE TO EASE THROUGH THE DAY AS
SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO MOVE OVERHEAD WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY AROUND
10KTS. SEAS 3-4FT...REMAINING CHOPPY ESPECIALLY OVER THE GULF STREAM
GIVEN THE NORTHERLY COUNTER COMPONENT.

SEAS WILL BE SLOWER TO SUBSIDE WITH 4-6 FT AND CHOPPY OVER THE GULF
STREAM AND 3-5 FT ELSEWHERE. INTRACOASTAL WATERS WILL ALSO CONTINUE
TO BE CHOPPY.

MONDAY-WEDNESDAY...SURFACE HIGH CENTER MOVES SOUTHEAST OFF CAROLINA
COAST VEERING WINDS TO THE EAST FOR MON AND TUES WITH AXIS OVERHEAD
BY WEDNESDAY. SEAS 2-3FT WITH UP TO 4FT WELL OFFSHORE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

THIS AFTERNOON...MIN RH VALUES SEEM TO BE BOTTOMING OUT BETWEEN 35
AND 40 PERCENT ALONG AND WEST OF I-4 WHERE WINDS ALSO REMAIN LIGHTER
FROM THE NORTH. BREEZY WINDS 10-15MPH ALONG THE COAST HAVE GAINED A
BIT OF AN ONSHORE COMPONENT WHICH HAS HALTED ANY FURTHER RH DROPS.

RH VALUES EXPECTED TO DROP TO 30-35 PERCENT WEST OF I-4 ON SUNDAY
AFTN BUT N-NE WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN 10MPH OR LESS ALSO LEADING TO
POOR TO FAIR DISPERSIONS. DEVELOPING EASTERLY FLOW FROM MONDAY
ONWARDS IS EXPECTED TO MITIGATE LOWER RH VALUES...THOUGH THE
NORTHERN INTERIOR MAY SEE MIN RH VALUES AROUND 40 PERCENT ON MON
AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  57  81  56  84 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  56  82  58  86 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  60  80  60  83 /   0   0   0   0
VRB  58  81  62  84 /   0   0   0   0
LEE  55  82  57  86 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  56  82  58  86 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  59  81  61  86 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  58  80  61  83 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...MOSES
IMPACT WEATHER....GLITTO









000
FXUS62 KMLB 251245
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
845 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY SWINGING THROUGH THE
STATE AT THIS HOUR...KICKING THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE BAHAMAS
FURTHER NORTH AND EAST. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY...WEAKENING THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT. NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME
NORTH-NORTHEAST BY THE AFTERNOON AROUND 10 MPH...A LITTLE HIGHER
ALONG THE COAST.

OTHERWISE...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES OVER THE INTERIOR AND PARTLY CLOUDY
AT THE COAST AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES A LITTLE MORE NORTHEAST AND
MARINE STRATOCU MOVES BACK ONSHORE. FORECAST REMAINS DRY WITH NO
PRECIPITATION FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S AREAWIDE.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. OCCASIONAL CIGS FROM ONSHORE MOVING MARINE STRATOCU
FL035-050 BRUSHING COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE FURTHER EAST FROM THE BAHAMAS AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GULF. GRADIENT HAS WEAKENED AS A RESULT
SO HAVE ALLOWED THE ADVISORY OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF STREAM TO EXPIRE
IN FAVOR OF A CAUTIONARY STATEMENT.

OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPED OVER LAND LAST NIGHT WHICH HAS BACKED WINDS
NEAR THE COAST TO THE NORTHWEST AT AROUND 10KTS. FURTHER
OFFSHORE...WINDS CONTINUE FROM THE NORTH GENERALLY 10-15KTS...WITH
15-20KTS OVER THE GULF STREAM SOUTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET. TREND FOR
THE DAY WILL BE FOR WINDS TO BECOME NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHEAST
10-15KTS OVER ALL THE WATERS BY THIS AFTERNOON.

SEAS WILL BE SLOWER TO SUBSIDE WITH 4-6 FT AND CHOPPY OVER THE GULF
STREAM AND 3-5 FT ELSEWHERE. INTRACOASTAL WATERS WILL ALSO CONTINUE
TO BE CHOPPY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MIN RH VALUES WILL DROP BETWEEN 35 AND 40 PCT NEAR AND NORTH OF
THE I-4 CORRIDOR FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTN. DISPERSION INDICES WILL
BE GENERALLY GOOD AREAWIDE. LOWER RH VALUES EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTN
OVER THE NORTH INTERIOR REACHING 25-30 PERCENT BUT WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT N/NE.

&&


.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE

&&

$$

MOSES/GLITTO








000
FXUS62 KMLB 250832
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
432 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER THE BAHAMAS
EARLY THIS MORNING. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN
THE MID/UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
LOCATED ALONG THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST THROUGH WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA.
WINDS WERE LIGHT NORTH/NORTHWEST OVER THE INTERIOR AND VOLUSIA COAST
WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER NORTH-NORTHEAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS ALONG THE
TREASURE COAST. THESE HIGHER WINDS SPEEDS WERE KEEPING TEMPERATURES
NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES WITH
LOWER 60S FURTHER INTO THE INTERIOR. ONSHORE FLOWING STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS WERE AFFECTING COASTAL LOCATIONS WITH OCCASIONAL
BROKEN-OVERCAST COVER.

TODAY-TONIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA TODAY THUS EJECTING THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE BAHAMAS
RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIR
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL BE WEAKER TODAY WITH LIGHT MORNING NORTHERLY WINDS
INCREASING TO 6-12 MPH OVER THE INTERIOR AND 10-15 MPH ALONG THE
SPACE/TREASURE COASTS. WINDS WILL FALL TO LIGHT AND BELOW 5 MPH THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT AREAWIDE. WILL KEEP WEATHER CONDITIONS DRY WITH NO
PRECIPITATION FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S AREAWIDE. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST COOLER AND WILL RANGE FROM
NEAR 60 DEGREES TO LOWER 60S ALONG THE SPACE AND TREASURE COASTS AND
MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S INTO THE INTERIOR. NORMALLY COOLER LOCATIONS
ACROSS THE INTERIOR MAY REALIZE LOWS IN THE LOW 50S BY SUNRISE SUN
MORNING.

SUN...NORTH WINDS WILL TURN NE-E IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE COAST
WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 MPH. FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME
MARINE STRATOCUMULUS WILL CONTINUE TO CROSS THE COAST SOUTH OF THE
CAPE BUT THERE SHOULD BE LESS COVERAGE. ELSEWHERE THERE WILL BE
FULL SUNSHINE AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SETTLES NEAR THE AREA. HIGHS
IN THE LOW 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST AND UPPER 70S AT THE BEACHES
AND IMMEDIATE COAST.

MON-FRI...EASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP NEXT WEEK AS THE SFC HIGH
PUSHES OFFSHORE WHICH WILL BEGIN A GRADUAL MOISTENING PROCESS.
BOTH 00Z GFS AND ECMWF KEEP THE DEEP DEEP MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH
ACROSS CUBA. SO WILL KEEP MON AND TUE DRY THEN BRING A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR ATLANTIC SHOWERS STARTING TUE NIGHT AND CONTINUING THRU
MIDWEEK...PRIMARILY ALONG THE COAST. SEASONABLY COOL MORNING MON
THEN ONSHORE FLOW WILL PRODUCE MILD LOWS IN THE MID 60S INTERIOR
AND UPPER 60S/NR 70 COAST. HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
IN THE MID 80S...A FEW UPPER 80S POSSIBLE WED INTERIOR. THE NEXT
BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN COULD BE FRI ASSOCIATED WITH A COOL FRONT BUT
MODELS DISAGREE HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE. THE ECMWF
SOLUTION SHOWING A STRONG S/W TROUGH DIVING SOUTH FROM THE GREAT
LAKES AND DEVELOPING A CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE SE U.S. LOOKS
SUSPICIOUS. IT IS NOT UNUSUAL FOR COOL FRONTS TO COME THROUGH DRY
IF MOISTURE IS TOO LIMITED. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE DRIER GFS (20
PERCENT) FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR. CIGS FROM ONSHORE MOVING MARINE STRATOCU 040-050 AGL THIS
MORNING. WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT TODAY WITH MORNING LIGHT
NORTHERLY FLOW FORECAST TO BECOME NNE 6-11 KTS INTERIOR AND 8-13
KTS KTIX SOUTHWARD THRU KSUA ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
CURRENT-TONIGHT...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE BAHAMAS WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK AWAY FROM THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THRU 12Z FOR GULF STREAM WATERS
OFF OF THE TREASURE COAST. CAUTIONARY STATEMENTS LIKELY TO BE
NECESSARY HERE AFTER 12Z UNTIL AT LEAST THE 10AM/14Z CWF ISSUANCE.

NORTHERLY WINDS NEAR 20 KTS OVER THE GULF STREAM SOUTHERN MARINE LEG
WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TO 15 KTS THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
AND 10-15 KTS TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE INITIAL WINDS UP TO 15 KTS WILL
DECREASE TO 10-15 KTS THROUGH THE DAY.

SEAS WILL BE SLOWER TO SUBSIDE WITH 5-7 FT SEAS OVER THE ADVISORY
AREA FALLING TO 4-6 FT THRU THE DAY AND 4-5 FT TONIGHT. SEAS
ELSEWHERE MAINLY 3-5 FT. INTRACOASTAL WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE CHOPPY.

SUN...NORTHERLY WIND COMPONENT WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY BUT WIND
SPEEDS SHOULD DECREASE AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SETTLES NEARBY.
PRES GRAD WILL SUPPORT AROUND 10 KNOTS SO SOME IMPROVEMENT IN
BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED BUT CERTAINLY NOT IDEAL.

MON-WED...WINDS VEER MORE OUT OF THE EAST MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
PUSHES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT
10-14 KNOTS MON AND TUE AND AROUND 10 KNOTS WED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MIN RH VALUES WILL DROP BETWEEN 35 AND 40 PCT NEAR AND NORTH OF
THE I-4 CORRIDOR FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTN. DISPERSION INDICES WILL
BE GENERALLY GOOD AREAWIDE. LOWER RH VALUES EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTN
OVER THE NORTH INTERIOR REACHING 25-30 PERCENT BUT WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT N/NE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  79  56  80  57 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  80  56  82  58 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  80  59  80  63 /   0   0   0   0
VRB  81  60  81  62 /   0   0   0   0
LEE  79  55  82  58 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  80  56  83  58 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  81  59  83  61 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  81  58  81  62 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-
     WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SEDLOCK
LONG TERM....KELLY










000
FXUS62 KMLB 250051
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
851 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE FLORIDA STRAITS WILL CONTINUE
EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE BAHAMAS INTO TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW
N/NE WINDS TO BECOME N/NW AND DECREASE ACROSS THE REGION. JUST
ABOVE THE SFC LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL REMAIN N/NE AND WILL CONTINUE
TO TRANSPORT MARINE STRATOCU ONTO THE COAST WITH SKIES RANGING
FROM PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT. WHILE FARTHER INLAND SKIES
WILL ALTERNATE BETWEEN MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY. DESPITE
LOCAL WRF AND HRRR WANTING TO GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT NOT SEEING ANY EVIDENCE ON RADAR OF LIGHT
PRECIP WITH THIS LOWER CLOUD DECK. ALSO MOS POPS REMAIN QUITE LOW
SO WILL THEREFORE KEEP RAIN CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST TONIGHT.
TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S OVER MUCH OF THE
INTERIOR AND VOLUSIA COAST. SCATTERED CLOUDS AND LOW LEVEL ONSHORE
WINDS SOUTH OF THE CAPE SHOULD KEEP MIN TEMPS FROM FALLING LOWER
THAN THE LOW/MID 60S.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS. CIGS FROM ONSHORE
MOVING MARINE STRATOCU FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE 3KFT.


&&

.MARINE...WINDS AT SETTLEMENT POINT STILL NEAR 20 KNOTS AND NAM
GUIDANCE INDICATING SOME INCREASE IN N/NE WINDS POSSIBLE OVER THE
SRN WATERS INTO TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES E/NE OVER THE
BAHAMAS. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SEAS UP TO 7 FEET...
MAINLY OVER THE GULF STREAM WATERS OF THE TREASURE COAST. WILL
THEREFORE CONTINUE SCA HEADLINES FOR THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF
SEBASTIAN INLET OVERNIGHT. FARTHER NORTH...N/NE WINDS UP TO 10-15
KNOTS EXPECTED WITH SEAS UP TO 3-5 FEET.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM
     SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

WEITLICH/PENDERGRAST








000
FXUS62 KMLB 241826
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
226 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT-TONIGHT...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING
NORTHEAST IN A LONG SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTED SURFACE TROUGH
THAT STRETCHES FROM THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA ACROSS CUBA AND THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN BAHAMA ISLAND. THE TIGHT GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN
BREEZY CONDITIONS ON THE COAST FROM SOUTH BREVARD TO JUPITER
INLET...AND SOUTH...FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. THE GRADIENT
EASES LATE OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW WILL HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE BAHAMA
ISLANDS. THE MOST RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES...AND A LOCAL OB
CHECK/WALK OUTSIDE...SHOWED LARGE AREAS OF LOW MARINE STRATOCUMULUS
IN THE NORTHEAST TO EAST WIND FLOW WELL EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC. THUS
WILL CALL FOR PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AT THE COAST AND PARTLY
CLOUDY UNTIL MIDNIGHT FOR THE INTERIOR. THE MELBOURNE RADAR SHOWS
LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP FROM THE LOW CLOUDS. HOWEVER...THE SOUTHEAST
FLORIDA FAA AND NWS RADARS WERE PAINTING A DIFFERENT PICTURE WITH
VERY LARGE AREAS OF PRECIP MOVING WEST TO EAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST
FLORIDA...THE KEYS AND FLORIDA STRAITS...AND WELL EAST OF THE BAHAMA
ISLAND. GFS MAV MOS INDICATING LOW POP AREA WIDE WITH THE HIGHEST
POP...11 TO 18 PERCENT...STUART TO PALM BEACH. THIS LOOKS REASONABLE
GIVEN THAT A NORTH NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BE PULLING A LITTLE STABLE
MARINE AIR MASS DOWN THE PENINSULA. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S INTERIOR
AND LOW TO MID 60S COASTAL AREAS NORTH BREVARD SOUTH

SAT...LOW PRESSURE SHOULD BE EAST OF THE BAHAMA ISLANDS. HIGH
PRESSURE OVERSPREADING THE AREA WILL GENERATE BRISK AFTERNOON NORTH
WINDS ESPECIALLY AT THE COAST. BUT MODELS INDICATE SOME RESIDUAL
CYCLONIC FLOW WHICH SHOULD ENHANCE THE MARINE STRATOCU PUSHING SOUTH
ONTO THE COAST DURING THE DAY.

HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S EXCEPT UPPER 70S ALONG THE VOLUSIA/NORTH
BREVARD COAST.

SAT NIGHT...THE LOW WILL HAVE PULLED FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO HAVE LITTLE
TO NO IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER. CONTINUED NORTHERLY FLOW WILL DROP LOWS
INTO THE MID 50S INTERIOR...UPPER 50S CLOSER TO THE COAST SOUTH
BREVARD TO MARTIN AND THE LOW 60S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST/BEACHES
COCOA BEACH SOUTH.


SUN...NORTH WINDS EARLY SUNDAY WILL TURN NE-E IN THE AFTERNOON AND
DECREASE DUE TO THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SETTLING NEAR THE AREA.
HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST AND UPPER 70S AT THE
BEACHES AND IMMEDIATE COAST. LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S AND THE LOW
60S AT THE BEACHES SOUTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL

PREVIOUS EXTEND ZONES DISCUSSION
MON-THU...EASTERLY FLOW WILL DEEPEN AND STRENGTHEN A BIT EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS THE SFC HIGH PUSHES OFFSHORE...WHICH WILL BEGIN A GRADUAL
MOISTENING PROCESS. BOTH 00Z GFS AND ECMWF KEEP THE DEEP MOISTURE TO
OUR SOUTH ACROSS CUBA. SO WILL KEEP MON AND TUE DRY THEN BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ATLANTIC SHOWERS STARTING TUE NIGHT AND CONTINUING
THRU MIDWEEK...PRIMARILY ALONG THE COAST. SEASONABLY COOL MORNINGS
SUN AND MON THEN ONSHORE FLOW WILL PRODUCE MILD LOWS IN THE MID 60S
INTERIOR AND UPPER 60S/NR 70 COAST. SEASONABLE HIGH TEMPS SUN IN THE
LOWER 80S THEN WARMING INTO THE MID 80S MON-THU.


&&

.AVIATION...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWING MARINE STRATOCUMULUS OVER THE
ATLANTIC...COMING ASHORE AND WORKING ITS WAY INLAND PAST LAKE AND
NORTH POLK COUNTIES. TEMPO MVFR CEILINGS KOMN-JUPITER INLET WITH THE
HIGHER CHANCES KMLB SOUTH. NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO
20 KNOTS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS COMING ASHORE KSUA SOUTH.

&&

.MARINE...
CURRENT-TONIGHT...THE BUOYS WERE RECORDING NORTHEAST 12 TO 14 KNOTS
AND 2 TO 4 FOOT SEAS. SETTLEMENT POINT ON GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND WAS
RECORDING NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS WHICH IS REASONABLE
CONSIDERING THAT THE CMAN SITE IS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
APPROACHING LOW. TIGHT NORTHEAST TO NORTH GRADIENT OVERNIGHT AS THE
LOW TRACKS SOUTH OF THE AREA.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET STILL A GOOD
CALL. SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FROM THE BREVARD
VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET FOR NORTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 20
KNOTS.

SAT...UNFAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH NORTH WINDS
15 KNOTS AND SEAS 5 TO 6 FEET. WILL AT LEAST NEED A CAUTION FOR THE
GULF STEAM AND POSSIBLY AN ADVISORY. INTRACOASTAL WATERS WILL BE
CHOPPY.

SUN....NORTHERLY WIND COMPONENT WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY BUT WIND SPEEDS
SHOULD DECREASE AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SETTLES NEARBY. SO SOME
IMPROVEMENT IN BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED BUT CERTAINLY NOT IDEAL.

MON-TUE.. WINDS TURN EAST BY MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT 10-15 KNOTS MON AND
TUE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  59  80  56  80 /  10   0   0   0
MCO  59  81  57  82 /  10   0   0   0
MLB  64  81  61  80 /  10   0   0   0
VRB  64  82  62  81 /  10   0   0   0
LEE  58  81  56  82 /  10   0   0   0
SFB  59  82  57  82 /  10   0   0   0
ORL  61  81  60  82 /  10   0   0   0
FPR  65  82  61  80 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM
     SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

IMPACT WX...MOSES
FORECASTS...WIMMER






000
FXUS62 KMLB 241333
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
930 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT-THIS AFTERNOON...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND A LONG SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST ORIENTED SURFACE TROUGH THAT STRETCHES FROM THE NORTHWEST
CARIBBEAN SEA ACROSS CUBA AND THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN BAHAMA ISLAND
WILL PRODUCE BRISK WINDS FOR THE SPACE AND TREASURE COASTS FROM
MELBOURNE TO JUPITER INLET TODAY. THE BRISK ONSHORE WIND FLOW WILL
ALSO BRING AREAS OF LOW/STRATIFORM CLOUDS ASHORE MELBOURNE SOUTH
WITH MORE PERSISTENT LOW CLOUD COVERAGE FORT PIERCE SOUTH. THE SOUTH
FLORIDA FAA AND NWS WEATHER RADARS WERE DETECTING A LARGE AREA OF
RAIN FROM AROUND MIAMI SOUTH AND EAST TO THE BAHAMA ISLANDS WHERE A
SURFACE LOW WAS/HAD FORMING/FORMED. SHORT TERM MODELS SHOW THAT THE
AREA OF RAIN SHOULD DRIFT NORTH TO SOUTH BREVARD COUNTY AND COASTAL
WATERS CAPE CANAVERAL SOUTH.

CURRENT FORECAST DEPICTS THIS SCENARIO QUITE WELL.

WE WILL ISSUE AN UPDATE TO COVER TRENDS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

PREVIOUS ZONES DISCUSSION
CURRENT...A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED OVER THE FLORIDA
STRAITS EARLY THIS MORNING. A WEAK AREA OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
WAS OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS AS WELL. VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE ENERGY WAS
LOCATED OVER CENTRAL CUBA HELPING TO INDUCE THE SURFACE LOW. WINDS
WERE LIGHT NORTHERLY OVER THE INTERIOR AND VOLUSIA COAST WITH
SLIGHTLY STRONGER NORTHEAST TO EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS ALONG THE SPACE
AND TREASURE COASTS. THESE HIGHER WINDS SPEEDS WERE KEEPING
TEMPERATURES NEAR THE COAST IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WHEREAS
FURTHER INTO THE INTERIOR TEMPERATURES WERE DROPPING INTO THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S.

TODAY-TONIGHT...THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW WITH ASSOCIATED ENERGY
ALOFT OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS WILL LIFT NORTHEAST LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL DROP
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S AND FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE
MOISTURE GRADIENT WILL ALSO REMAIN FAIRLY TIGHT AND WILL KEEP CHANCE
(30 TO 40 PERCENT)POPS ACROSS ST. LUCIE AND MARTIN COUNTIES WITH
SLIGHT CHANCES (20 PERCENT) EXTENDED NORTH INTO INDIAN RIVER AND
EXTREME SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTIES. LIGHTNING IS NOT ANTICIPATED AND
WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION WORDING AS SHOWERS. HEAVIER CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH LOWER PRESSURES SOUTH AND HIGHER PRESSURES NORTH TRYING TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION. AS A RESULT EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE SPACE/TREASURE COASTS WHERE NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 MPH LATER THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WINDS WILL AVERAGE 10-15 MPH AWAY FROM THESE AREAS WITH
OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON.

MORE SUNSHINE WILL BE REALIZED FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE COVERAGE
WARNING AREA WITH INCREASING (MID-HIGH) CLOUDS SOUTHWARD CLOSER
TOWARDS THE LOW PRESSURE AND DEEPER MOISTURE. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AREAWIDE.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ALONG THE
SPACE/TREASURE COASTS THANKS IN PART TO ELEVATED WINDS HERE WITH
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FORECAST ALONG THE VOLUSIA COAST AND FURTHER
INTO THE INTERIOR OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

SAT...LOW PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE OPEN ATLANTIC EAST
OF THE BAHAMAS AND AWAY FROM THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO
OVERSPREAD THE AREA AND PRODUCE BREEZY NORTH WINDS ESPECIALLY AT
THE COAST. BUT MODELS INDICATE SOME RESIDUAL CYCLONIC FLOW WHICH
SHOULD ENHANCE THE MARINE STRATOCU PUSHING SOUTH ONTO THE COAST.
THERE MAY BE SOME SPRINKLES BUT FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A
PRETTY NARROW MOISTURE LAYER SO WILL NOT FORECAST MEASURABLE
PRECIP. WILL CALL IT PARTLY SUNNY EXCEPT MOSTLY SUNNY OVER THE FAR
INTERIOR (LAKE COUNTY). HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S EXCEPT UPPER 70S
ALONG THE VOLUSIA/NORTH BREVARD COAST.

SUN-THU...NORTH WINDS EARLY SUNDAY WILL TURN NE-E IN THE AFTERNOON
AND DECREASE DUE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SETTLING NEAR THE AREA.
EASTERLY FLOW WILL DEEPEN AND STRENGTHEN A BIT EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
THE SFC HIGH PUSHES OFFSHORE...WHICH WILL BEGIN A GRADUAL
MOISTENING PROCESS. BOTH 00Z GFS AND ECMWF KEEP THE DEEP MOISTURE
TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS CUBA. SO WILL KEEP MON AND TUE DRY THEN BRING
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ATLANTIC SHOWERS STARTING TUE NIGHT AND
CONTINUING THRU MIDWEEK...PRIMARILY ALONG THE COAST. SEASONABLY
COOL MORNINGS SUN AND MON THEN ONSHORE FLOW WILL PRODUCE MILD LOWS
IN THE MID 60S INTERIOR AND UPPER 60S/NR 70 COAST. SEASONABLE HIGH
TEMPS SUN IN THE LOWER 80S THEN WARMING INTO THE MID 80S MON-THU.

&&

.AVIATION...
FIRST FEW VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWING MARINE STRATOCUMULUS OVER
THE ATLANTIC MOVING TOWARD FLORIDA. THE MARINE STRATOCU WILL COME
ASHORE DURING THE DAY KOMN SOUTH AND WORK ITS WAY INLAND AS FAR AS
KDED-KISM. TEMPO MVFR CEILINGS KOMN-JUPITER INLET WITH THE HIGHER
CHANCES KMLB SOUTH. NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 20
KNOTS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS COMING ASHORE KVRB SOUTH.

&&

.MARINE...

CURRENT-THIS AFTERNOON...THE NOAA BUOYS AND CMAN BUOYS WERE
RECORDING NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH 2 TO 4 FOOT SEAS.
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. AND TROUGHING FROM THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN TO THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN BAHAMA ISLANDS WILL PRODUCE NORTHEAST WINDS 20
TO 25 KNOTS SEBASTIAN INLET SOUTH AND 15 TO 20 KNOTS FROM THE
VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LING TO SEBASTIAN INLET.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET STILL A GOOD
CALL. SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FROM THE BREVARD
VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET FOR NORTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 20
KNOTS.

PREVIOUS MARINE DISCUSSION

CURRENT-TONIGHT...TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS WITH NE/NNE WINDS FORECAST TO INCREASE 20-25
KTS THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT SOUTH FROM SEBASTIAN INLET. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT HERE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
CAUTIONARY STATEMENTS LIKELY FROM SEBASTIAN INLET THROUGH BREVARD
COUNTY FOR WINDS OF 15-20 KTS. THESE WINDS WILL ALSO PRODUCE
CHOPPY SEAS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE GULF STREAM WATERS. SEAS WILL
SLOWLY BUILD TO 5-7 FT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT OVER THE SCA
AREA WITH SEAS FURTHER NORTH BUILDING TO 3 TO 5 FT.

SAT...UNFAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH NORTH
WINDS 15 KNOTS AND SEAS 5 TO 6 FEET. WILL AT LEAST NEED A CAUTION
FOR THE GULF STEAM AND POSSIBLY AN ADVISORY. INTRACOASTAL WATERS
WILL BE CHOPPY.

SUN-TUE...NORTHERLY WIND COMPONENT WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY BUT WIND
SPEEDS SHOULD DECREASE AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SETTLES NEARBY. SO
SOME IMPROVEMENT IN BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED BUT CERTAINLY NOT
IDEAL. WINDS TURN EAST BY MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT 10-15 KNOTS MON AND
TUE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THIS AFTERNOON...MIN RH`S WILL DROP TO AROUND 40 PCT OVER THE NRN
INTERIOR FOR 1-3 HOURS. DISPERSION INDICES WILL BE GENERALLY GOOD
TO VERY GOOD AREAWIDE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  78  61  80  57 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  81  60  82  58 /  10   0   0   0
MLB  80  66  81  62 /  10   0  10   0
VRB  82  69  83  62 /  20  10  10   0
LEE  80  59  81  56 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  80  61  83  58 /  10   0   0   0
ORL  82  62  83  60 /  10   0   0   0
FPR  82  68  82  62 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM
     SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

IMPACT WX...MOSES
FORECASTS...WIMMER







000
FXUS62 KMLB 240822
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
422 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT...A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED OVER THE FLORIDA
STRAITS EARLY THIS MORNING. A WEAK AREA OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
WAS OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS AS WELL. VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE ENERGY WAS
LOCATED OVER CENTRAL CUBA HELPING TO INDUCE THE SURFACE LOW. WINDS
WERE LIGHT NORTHERLY OVER THE INTERIOR AND VOLUSIA COAST WITH
SLIGHTLY STRONGER NORTHEAST TO EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS ALONG THE SPACE
AND TREASURE COASTS. THESE HIGHER WINDS SPEEDS WERE KEEPING
TEMPERATURES NEAR THE COAST IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WHEREAS
FURTHER INTO THE INTERIOR TEMPERATURES WERE DROPPING INTO THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S.

TODAY-TONIGHT...THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW WITH ASSOCIATED ENERGY
ALOFT OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS WILL LIFT NORTHEAST LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL DROP
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S AND FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE
MOISTURE GRADIENT WILL ALSO REMAIN FAIRLY TIGHT AND WILL KEEP CHANCE
(30 TO 40 PERCENT)POPS ACROSS ST. LUCIE AND MARTIN COUNTIES WITH
SLIGHT CHANCES (20 PERCENT) EXTENDED NORTH INTO INDIAN RIVER AND
EXTREME SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTIES. LIGHTNING IS NOT ANTICIPATED AND
WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION WORDING AS SHOWERS. HEAVIER CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH LOWER PRESSURES SOUTH AND HIGHER PRESSURES NORTH TRYING TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION. AS A RESULT EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE SPACE/TREASURE COASTS WHERE NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 MPH LATER THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WINDS WILL AVERAGE 10-15 MPH AWAY FROM THESE AREAS WITH
OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON.

MORE SUNSHINE WILL BE REALIZED FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE COVERAGE
WARNING AREA WITH INCREASING (MID-HIGH) CLOUDS SOUTHWARD CLOSER
TOWARDS THE LOW PRESSURE AND DEEPER MOISTURE. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AREAWIDE.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ALONG THE
SPACE/TREASURE COASTS THANKS IN PART TO ELEVATED WINDS HERE WITH
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FORECAST ALONG THE VOLUSIA COAST AND FURTHER
INTO THE INTERIOR OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

SAT...LOW PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE OPEN ATLANTIC EAST
OF THE BAHAMAS AND AWAY FROM THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO
OVERSPREAD THE AREA AND PRODUCE BREEZY NORTH WINDS ESPECIALLY AT
THE COAST. BUT MODELS INDICATE SOME RESIDUAL CYCLONIC FLOW WHICH
SHOULD ENHANCE THE MARINE STRATOCU PUSHING SOUTH ONTO THE COAST.
THERE MAY BE SOME SPRINKLES BUT FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A
PRETTY NARROW MOISTURE LAYER SO WILL NOT FORECAST MEASURABLE
PRECIP. WILL CALL IT PARTLY SUNNY EXCEPT MOSTLY SUNNY OVER THE FAR
INTERIOR (LAKE COUNTY). HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S EXCEPT UPPER 70S
ALONG THE VOLUSIA/NORTH BREVARD COAST.

SUN-THU...NORTH WINDS EARLY SUNDAY WILL TURN NE-E IN THE AFTERNOON
AND DECREASE DUE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SETTLING NEAR THE AREA.
EASTERLY FLOW WILL DEEPEN AND STRENGTHEN A BIT EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
THE SFC HIGH PUSHES OFFSHORE...WHICH WILL BEGIN A GRADUAL
MOISTENING PROCESS. BOTH 00Z GFS AND ECMWF KEEP THE DEEP MOISTURE
TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS CUBA. SO WILL KEEP MON AND TUE DRY THEN BRING
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ATLANTIC SHOWERS STARTING TUE NIGHT AND
CONTINUING THRU MIDWEEK...PRIMARILY ALONG THE COAST. SEASONABLY
COOL MORNINGS SUN AND MON THEN ONSHORE FLOW WILL PRODUCE MILD LOWS
IN THE MID 60S INTERIOR AND UPPER 60S/NR 70 COAST. SEASONABLE HIGH
TEMPS SUN IN THE LOWER 80S THEN WARMING INTO THE MID 80S MON-THU.

&&

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR. SOME CLOUD CEILINGS THIS MORNING AROUND 4-5KFT...
ESPECIALLY SOUTHWARD ALONG THE COAST. INCREASING NE WINDS LATE
MORNING/AFTERNOON WITH STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. CONVECTION
FORECAST TO STAY KVRB SOUTHWARD WITH SMALL THREAT OF SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
CURRENT-TONIGHT...TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS WITH NE/NNE WINDS FORECAST TO INCREASE 20-25
KTS THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT SOUTH FROM SEBASTIAN INLET. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT HERE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
CAUTIONARY STATEMENTS LIKELY FROM SEBASTIAN INLET THROUGH BREVARD
COUNTY FOR WINDS OF 15-20 KTS. THESE WINDS WILL ALSO PRODUCE
CHOPPY SEAS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE GULF STREAM WATERS. SEAS WILL
SLOWLY BUILD TO 5-7 FT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT OVER THE SCA
AREA WITH SEAS FURTHER NORTH BUILDING TO 3 TO 5 FT.

SAT...UNFAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH NORTH
WINDS 15 KNOTS AND SEAS 5 TO 6 FEET. WILL AT LEAST NEED A CAUTION
FOR THE GULF STEAM AND POSSIBLY AN ADVISORY. INTRACOASTAL WATERS
WILL BE CHOPPY.

SUN-TUE...NORTHERLY WIND COMPONENT WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY BUT WIND
SPEEDS SHOULD DECREASE AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SETTLES NEARBY. SO
SOME IMPROVEMENT IN BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED BUT CERTAINLY NOT
IDEAL. WINDS TURN EAST BY MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT 10-15 KNOTS MON AND
TUE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THIS AFTERNOON...MIN RH`S WILL DROP TO AROUND 40 PCT OVER THE NRN
INTERIOR FOR 1-3 HOURS. DISPERSION INDICES WILL BE GENERALLY GOOD
TO VERY GOOD AREAWIDE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  78  61  80  57 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  81  60  82  58 /  10   0   0   0
MLB  80  66  81  62 /  10   0  10   0
VRB  82  69  83  62 /  20  10  10   0
LEE  80  59  81  56 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  80  61  83  58 /  10   0   0   0
ORL  82  62  83  60 /  10   0   0   0
FPR  82  68  82  62 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM
     SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SEDLOCK
LONG TERM....KELLY








000
FXUS62 KMLB 240014
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
814 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL FLORIDA BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND NON TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE
FLORIDA STRAIGHTS. THIS WILL INCREASE LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST
FLOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE TREASURE COAST REGION. DESPITE SOME
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...EVIDENT BY CLOUD COVER ACROSS
MARTIN COUNTY...MODELS NOT TOO KEEN ON ANY ONSHORE MOVING SHOWERS
IN THIS REGION. HAVE THEREFORE REMOVED THE SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES
FROM THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES EXPECTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. TEMPS WILL
FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND VOLUSIA
COAST WITH UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ALONG COASTAL REGIONS SOUTH OF THE
CAPE WHERE ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTS.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED. BKN-OVC SKIES EXPECTED AT KSUA
BUT CIGS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 3KFT.


&&

.MARINE...TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND NON TROPICAL LOW MOVING TOWARD THE
FLORIDA STRAIGHTS WILL PRODUCE HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS SOUTH
OF SEBASTIAN INLET. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL GO INTO EFFECT
OVER THESE WATERS BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT AS NORTHEAST WINDS
INCREASE TO 20 KNOTS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TOMORROW UP
TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF THE TREASURE
COAST...PRODUCING CHOPPY SEAS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE GULF STREAM
WATERS UP TO 7 FEET.


&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-
     WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

WEITLICH/PENDERGRAST








000
FXUS62 KMLB 232132
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
532 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...

.MARINE...UPDATED MARINE FORECAST EARLY TO INCLUDE A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET. MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASING TO 20 KNOTS LATE TONIGHT
AND THEN UP TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS OVER THE OFFSHORE PORTIONS OF THESE
WATERS INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE CHOPPY SEAS...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE GULF STREAM WATERS UP TO 7 FEET INTO TOMORROW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014/

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT-SAT NIGHT...SHORTWAVE ALOFT FINALLY LIFTS AWAY FROM
CENTRAL FLORIDA TONIGHT AND IS REPLACED BY RIDGING AND A DRIER
NORTHWEST FLOW. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
MIDWEST OHIO AND TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEYS RIDGES SOUTHEAST OVER
FLORIDA AND REMAINS OVER FLORIDA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
PERSISTENT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS TRANSPORT A STABLE MARINE AIR
MASS INTO THE COASTAL AREAS OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. ANY PRECIP
TONIGHT WOULD BE LIMITED TO MARTIN COUNTY AND THE ADJOINING
COASTAL WATERS THEN RAIN CHANCES DROP TO 10 PERCENT OR LESS
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS LOW 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 50S FROM AROUND DAYTONA...INTERSTATE 4 AND WEST.
LOWER 60S FROM AROUND ORLANDO SOUTH AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 95. MID
60S EAST OF INTERSTATE 95.

PREVIOUS EXTENDED ZONES DISCUSSION.

SUN-WED...DEEP LAYER RIDGING MOVES FROM THE GOMEX TO ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND OUT INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC DURING THIS
TIME FRAME. LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW AT THE SURFACE DEVELOPS SUN WITH THE
ONSHORE FLOW DEEPENING INTO NEXT WEEK. LIGHT PRECIPITATION FROM THE
MARINE INFLUENCE MAY ENTER THE PICTURE LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE-WED.
GREATEST CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION WOULD BE OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS AND ALONG THE COAST. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DIFFER BY AROUND
MID-WEEK WITH THE 12Z ECMWF FORECASTING A LOW OVER THE GULF WITH
DEEP MOISTURE BRINGING AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SOME HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA WED AFTERNOON/EVENING. HAVE ADDED CHANCE
POPS TO THIS DAY BUT WILL WAIT FOR FURTHER MODEL CONSISTENCY TO SEE
IF THIS SCENARIO PLAYS OUT. TEMPERATURES WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF
CLIMO FOR THIS PERIOD.


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR. TEMPO MVFR VCSH POSSIBLE KSUA SOUTH THROUGH MIDNIGHT.


&&

.MARINE...
CURRENT-TONIGHT...BUOYS CURRENTLY RECORDING NORTHEAST WINDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS AND 2 TO 4 FOOT SEAS OUT TO 120 NM. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND LOWER
PRESSURES OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMA ISLANDS...THE FLORIDA STRAIT AND
CUBA SHOULD SUPPORT NORTHEAST TO NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS
NEARSHORE FLAGLER BEACH TO SEBASTIAN. SLIGHTLY STRONGER PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS
SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET AND THE OFFSHORE WATERS FLAGLER
BEACH TO JUPITER INLET. SEAS AVERAGING 3 TO 4 FEET NEARSHORE...4
TO 5 FEET OFFSHORE WITH OCCASIONAL 6 FOOT SEAS IN THE GULF STREAM.

FRI-SAT...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEYS
RIDGES OVER THE SOUTHEAST ND INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF AND FLORIDA.
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND 3 TO 4 FOOT SEAS NEAR
SHORE AND 4 TO 5...OCCASIONAL 6 FOOT WAVES IN THE GULF STREAM...
OFFSHORE.

SUN-MON...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL WITH DEEPENING ONSHORE
FLOW BOTH DAYS. WIND SPEEDS AOB 15 KTS. SEAS 2-3 FT POSSIBLY
BUILDING MON OVERNIGHT TO 3-5 FT AWAY FROM THE COAST.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FRI-SUN...MIN RH`S WILL DROP TO AROUND 40 PCT OVER THE NRN
INTERIOR FOR 1-3 HOURS EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  59  80  58  79 /   0   0  10   0
MCO  60  82  59  82 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  66  80  63  80 /   0   0   0   0
VRB  68  82  64  82 /  10   0   0   0
LEE  58  81  58  80 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  60  81  59  82 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  62  81  61  81 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  68  82  63  81 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-
     WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WEITLICH
FORECASTS...WIMMER








000
FXUS62 KMLB 231921
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
321 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT-SAT NIGHT...SHORTWAVE ALOFT FINALLY LIFTS AWAY FROM
CENTRAL FLORIDA TONIGHT AND IS REPLACED BY RIDGING AND A DRIER
NORTHWEST FLOW. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
MIDWEST OHIO AND TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEYS RIDGES SOUTHEAST OVER
FLORIDA AND REMAINS OVER FLORIDA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
PERSISTENT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS TRANSPORT A STABLE MARINE AIR
MASS INTO THE COASTAL AREAS OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. ANY PRECIP
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS WOULD BE LIMITED TO MARTIN COUNTY AND THE
ADJOINING COASTAL WATERS THEN RAIN CHANCES DROP TO 10 PERCENT OR
LESS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS LOW 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S FROM AROUND DAYTONA...INTERSTATE 4 AND
WEST. LOWER 60S FROM AROUND ORLANDO SOUTH AND WEST OF INTERSTATE
95. MID 60S EAST OF INTERSTATE 95.

PREVIOUS EXTENDED ZONES DISCUSSION.

SUN-WED...DEEP LAYER RIDGING MOVES FROM THE GOMEX TO ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND OUT INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC DURING THIS
TIME FRAME. LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW AT THE SURFACE DEVELOPS SUN WITH THE
ONSHORE FLOW DEEPENING INTO NEXT WEEK. LIGHT PRECIPITATION FROM THE
MARINE INFLUENCE MAY ENTER THE PICTURE LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE-WED.
GREATEST CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION WOULD BE OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS AND ALONG THE COAST. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DIFFER BY AROUND
MID-WEEK WITH THE 12Z ECMWF FORECASTING A LOW OVER THE GULF WITH
DEEP MOISTURE BRINGING AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SOME HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA WED AFTERNOON/EVENING. HAVE ADDED CHANCE
POPS TO THIS DAY BUT WILL WAIT FOR FURTHER MODEL CONSISTENCY TO SEE
IF THIS SCENARIO PLAYS OUT. TEMPERATURES WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF
CLIMO FOR THIS PERIOD.


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR. TEMPO MVFR VCSH POSSIBLE KSUA SOUTH THROUGH MIDNIGHT.


&&

.MARINE...
CURRENT-TONIGHT...BUOYS CURRENTLY RECORDING NORTHEAST WINDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS AND 2 TO 4 FOOT SEAS OUT TO 120 NM. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND LOWER
PRESSURES OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMA ISLANDS...THE FLORIDA STRAIT AND
CUBA SHOULD SUPPORT NORTHEAST TO NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS
NEARSHORE FLAGLER BEACH TO SEBASTIAN. SLIGHTLY STRONGER PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS
SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET AND THE OFFSHORE WATERS FLAGLER
BEACH TO JUPITER INLET. SEAS AVERAGING 3 TO 4 FEET NEARSHORE...4
TO 5 FEET OFFSHORE WITH OCCASIONAL 6 FOOT SEAS IN THE GULL STREAM.

FRI-SAT...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEYS
RIDGES OVER THE SOUTHEAST ND INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF AND FLORIDA.
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND 3 TO 4 FOOT SEAS NEAR
SHORE AND 4 TO 5...OCCASIONAL 6 FOOT WAVES IN THE GULF STREAM...
OFFSHORE.

SUN-MON...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL WITH DEEPENING ONSHORE
FLOW BOTH DAYS. WIND SPEEDS AOB 15 KTS. SEAS 2-3 FT POSSIBLY
BUILDING MON OVERNIGHT TO 3-5 FT AWAY FROM THE COAST.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FRI-SUN...MIN RH`S WILL DROP TO AROUND 40 PCT OVER THE NRN
INTERIOR FOR 1-3 HOURS EACH AFTERNOON.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  59  80  58  79 /   0   0  10   0
MCO  60  82  59  82 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  66  80  63  80 /   0   0   0   0
VRB  68  82  64  82 /  10   0   0   0
LEE  58  81  58  80 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  60  81  59  82 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  62  81  61  81 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  68  82  63  81 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

IMPACT WX...GLITTO
FORECASTS...WIMMER








000
FXUS62 KMLB 231921
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
321 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT-SAT NIGHT...SHORTWAVE ALOFT FINALLY LIFTS AWAY FROM
CENTRAL FLORIDA TONIGHT AND IS REPLACED BY RIDGING AND A DRIER
NORTHWEST FLOW. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
MIDWEST OHIO AND TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEYS RIDGES SOUTHEAST OVER
FLORIDA AND REMAINS OVER FLORIDA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
PERSISTENT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS TRANSPORT A STABLE MARINE AIR
MASS INTO THE COASTAL AREAS OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. ANY PRECIP
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS WOULD BE LIMITED TO MARTIN COUNTY AND THE
ADJOINING COASTAL WATERS THEN RAIN CHANCES DROP TO 10 PERCENT OR
LESS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS LOW 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S FROM AROUND DAYTONA...INTERSTATE 4 AND
WEST. LOWER 60S FROM AROUND ORLANDO SOUTH AND WEST OF INTERSTATE
95. MID 60S EAST OF INTERSTATE 95.

PREVIOUS EXTENDED ZONES DISCUSSION.

SUN-WED...DEEP LAYER RIDGING MOVES FROM THE GOMEX TO ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND OUT INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC DURING THIS
TIME FRAME. LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW AT THE SURFACE DEVELOPS SUN WITH THE
ONSHORE FLOW DEEPENING INTO NEXT WEEK. LIGHT PRECIPITATION FROM THE
MARINE INFLUENCE MAY ENTER THE PICTURE LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE-WED.
GREATEST CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION WOULD BE OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS AND ALONG THE COAST. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DIFFER BY AROUND
MID-WEEK WITH THE 12Z ECMWF FORECASTING A LOW OVER THE GULF WITH
DEEP MOISTURE BRINGING AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SOME HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA WED AFTERNOON/EVENING. HAVE ADDED CHANCE
POPS TO THIS DAY BUT WILL WAIT FOR FURTHER MODEL CONSISTENCY TO SEE
IF THIS SCENARIO PLAYS OUT. TEMPERATURES WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF
CLIMO FOR THIS PERIOD.


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR. TEMPO MVFR VCSH POSSIBLE KSUA SOUTH THROUGH MIDNIGHT.


&&

.MARINE...
CURRENT-TONIGHT...BUOYS CURRENTLY RECORDING NORTHEAST WINDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS AND 2 TO 4 FOOT SEAS OUT TO 120 NM. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND LOWER
PRESSURES OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMA ISLANDS...THE FLORIDA STRAIT AND
CUBA SHOULD SUPPORT NORTHEAST TO NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS
NEARSHORE FLAGLER BEACH TO SEBASTIAN. SLIGHTLY STRONGER PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS
SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET AND THE OFFSHORE WATERS FLAGLER
BEACH TO JUPITER INLET. SEAS AVERAGING 3 TO 4 FEET NEARSHORE...4
TO 5 FEET OFFSHORE WITH OCCASIONAL 6 FOOT SEAS IN THE GULL STREAM.

FRI-SAT...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEYS
RIDGES OVER THE SOUTHEAST ND INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF AND FLORIDA.
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND 3 TO 4 FOOT SEAS NEAR
SHORE AND 4 TO 5...OCCASIONAL 6 FOOT WAVES IN THE GULF STREAM...
OFFSHORE.

SUN-MON...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL WITH DEEPENING ONSHORE
FLOW BOTH DAYS. WIND SPEEDS AOB 15 KTS. SEAS 2-3 FT POSSIBLY
BUILDING MON OVERNIGHT TO 3-5 FT AWAY FROM THE COAST.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FRI-SUN...MIN RH`S WILL DROP TO AROUND 40 PCT OVER THE NRN
INTERIOR FOR 1-3 HOURS EACH AFTERNOON.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  59  80  58  79 /   0   0  10   0
MCO  60  82  59  82 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  66  80  63  80 /   0   0   0   0
VRB  68  82  64  82 /  10   0   0   0
LEE  58  81  58  80 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  60  81  59  82 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  62  81  61  81 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  68  82  63  81 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

IMPACT WX...GLITTO
FORECASTS...WIMMER








000
FXUS62 KMLB 231327
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
925 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT-THIS AFTERNOON...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
RIVER VALLEYS RIDGES SOUTHEAST OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE FIRST FEW
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWING THAT THE LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST WIND
FLOW WAS PUSHING MARINE LAYER CLOUDS...STRATOCUMULUS AND
CUMULUS...TO THE COAST WITH OCCASIONALLY MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SOUTH
OF FORT PIERCE. STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE NORTH THE LOWER PRESSURES ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGHING
NORTHEAST FROM THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
WAS PRODUCING A STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM AROUND FORT PIERCE
SOUTH. BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE ALONG THE
MARTIN COUNTY AND ITS COASTAL WATERS.

CURRENT FORECAST DEPICTS THIS PICTURE.

THE MORNING ZONE UPDATE WILL ADDRESS THE WINDS AND ITS RELATED
GRIDS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR. TEMPO MVFR VCSH KSUA SOUTH.

&&

.MARINE...

CURRENT-THIS AFTERNOON...THE 9 AM BUOY REPORTS WERE INDICATING
NORTHEAST WINDS AT 12 TO 14 KNOTS AND 2 TO 3 FOOT SEAS OUT TO 20NM
AND UP TO 4 FEET AT 120NM OFFSHORE.

WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS FORT PIERCE INLET SOUTH WHERE THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS A LITTLE STRONGER.

MINOR WIND AMENDMENTS AND ANOTHER LOOK AT SEA HEIGHTS.


PREVIOUS MARINE DISCUSSION
NE WINDS AT 12-15 KNOTS ACROSS THE WATERS AND SLIGHTLY
STRONGER ACROSS THE SRN WATERS WILL BUILD SEAS TO 4 TO 6 FT IN THE
GULF STREAM FOR THE BREVARD AND TREASURE COAST OFFSHORE WATERS
TODAY. WILL CONTINUE SCEC FOR THESE AREAS. NE WINDS ARE FORECAST
10-15 KNOTS ACROSS THE NRN WATERS TONIGHT AND 15-20 KNOTS ACROSS THE
SRN WATERS WHERE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS TIGHTER NEAR THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH. WILL LIKELY NEED TO KEEP SCEC GOING FOR THE
SRN WATERS INTO TONIGHT WITH SEAS UP TO 5-6 FT IN GULF STREAM.

FRI-FRI NIGHT...A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA
WITH STRONGER WINDS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. BORDERLINE
SCEC/SCA CONDITIONS SOUTH FROM SEBASTIAN INLET AWAY FROM THE COAST
DURING THE DAY ON FRI AS NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE 16-23 KTS HERE
WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER VALUES NORTHWARD. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE
AREAWIDE IN THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT BECOMING 10-15 KTS BY DAYBREAK SAT
MORNING. WIND DIRECTION FRI EVENING WILL BACK TO N/NNW. SEAS 2-4 FT
DURING THE DAY NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET...BUILDING TO 4-6 FT GULF
STREAM/OFFSHORE SOUTH OF HERE.

SAT-SAT NIGHT...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO RELAX A BIT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST WITH N/NW WIND SPEEDS 10-15
KTS NEAR SHORE AND AROUND 15 KTS OFFSHORE. SEAS INITIALLY 3-5 FT
SUBSIDING TO 2-4 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SUN-MON...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL WITH DEEPENING ONSHORE
FLOW BOTH DAYS. WIND SPEEDS AOB 15 KTS. SEAS 2-3 FT POSSIBLY
BUILDING MON OVERNIGHT TO 3-5 FT AWAY FROM THE COAST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MIN RHS WILL DROP TO BETWEEN 37-40 PCT ACROSS LAKE COUNTY TODAY WITH
NE WINDS OF 10-15 MPH. NO HEADLINES WILL BE REQUIRED. FRI-SUN...MIN
RHS WILL DROP TO AROUND 40 PCT OVER THE NRN INTERIOR FOR 1-3 HOURS
EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  78  58  79  60 /   0   0  10   0
MCO  81  60  82  60 /   0   0  10   0
MLB  79  65  81  64 /   0   0  10   0
VRB  81  68  82  66 /  10  10  20  10
LEE  80  58  82  59 /   0   0  10   0
SFB  80  59  82  59 /   0   0  10   0
ORL  82  61  82  62 /   0   0  10   0
FPR  81  69  81  66 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

IMPACT WX...GLITTO
FORECASTS...WIMMER







000
FXUS62 KMLB 230731
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
330 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY...A MID LVL S/W TROUGH ACROSS THE SE GULF MEXICO WILL MOVE
TOWARD S FL THIS AFTERNOON AND DAMPEN AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE BAHAMAS
LATER TONIGHT. A SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO PUSH FURTHER
INTO S FL TODAY. LOW LVL FLOW WILL REMAIN FROM THE NE WITH
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS LINGERING ACROSS OKEECHOBEE AND THE SRN
TREASURE COAST INTO THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE TRIMMED POPS TO ONLY
INDICATE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS MARTIN COUNTY NE FLOW
NEAR 15 KNOTS AND MOISTURE LEVELS BEHIND THE FRONTAL SFC FRONT
POTENTIALLY ADEQUATE FOR SOME ATLC SHOWERS TO MOVE ONSHORE. CIRRUS
HAS MOVED BACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL FL EARLY THIS MORNING BUT IS
FORECAST TO SHIFT SE ONCE AGAIN BY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL S/W TROUGH AXIS PROGRESSES EASTWARD LATER TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING. HIGH TEMPS WILL REACH THE UPPER 70S N CSTL TO LWR-MID 80S
OVER THE SRN INTERIOR.

TONIGHT...00Z GFS FCSTS WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT S OF THE
KEYS NEAR THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. NE LOW LVL FLOW SHOULD REMAIN
AROUND 15 KNOTS ACROSS THE ATLC INTO MARTIN COUNTY AND IT LOOKS LIKE
MOISTURE LEVELS SHOULD SUPPORT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING ONSHORE
MAINLY SOUTH OF ST LUCIE INLET. WILL KEEP MUCH OF THE AREA DRY WITH
LOWER MOISTURE LEVELS ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WITH
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE SE STATES. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM
THE  MID TO UPPER 50S NRN INTERIOR TO MID TO UPPER 60S ALONG THE
SPACE AND TREASURE COASTS.

FRI-FRI NIGHT...MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL DROP SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND FLORIDA PENINSULA OVER THIS 24 HOUR
PERIOD. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE MID-LEVEL IMPULSES WILL TRAVERSE THE
SOUTHERN PENINSULA OVERTOP AN OLD QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
LOCATED OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS. WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP HERE DURING THE DAY AND PROCEED ACROSS THE
BAHAMAS LATE IN THE PERIOD WHILE GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING. MODELS
CONTINUE TO FORECAST DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE TO REMAIN SOUTH OF OUR
COVERAGE WARNING AREA...BUT WILL STILL MAINTAIN 30 TO 40 PERCENT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS ST. LUCIE AND MARTIN COUNTIES WITH 20 PERCENT
CHANCES FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY AS FAR NORTH AS EXTREME SOUTHERN BREVARD
COUNTY...INDIAN RIVER AND OKEECHOBEE COUNTIES. HIGHS NEAR 80 DEGREES
TO LOWER 80S. LOWS MIDDLE/UPPER 50S NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR WITH
60S ELSEWHERE...HIGHEST VALUES REMAINING ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SPACE
AND TREASURE COASTS.

SAT-SAT NIGHT...AS THE LATEST SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEPARTS TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GOMEX. LIGHT EARLY
MORNING WINDS WILL BECOME NNE/NE THROUGH THE DAY WITH SPEEDS 8-13
MPH OVER THE INTERIOR AND AROUND 15 MPH ACROSS THE SPACE/TREASURE
COASTS. UNTIL MOISTURE GETS SCOURED OUT THERE COULD BE A LIGHT
SHOWER OR TWO ALONG THE MARTIN COUNTY COAST...BUT CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN DRY ELSEWHERE. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AREAWIDE.
LOWS IN THE 50S OVER THE INTERIOR WITH MAINLY LOWER 60S ALONG THE
COAST.

SUN-WED...DEEP LAYER RIDGING MOVES FROM THE GOMEX TO ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND OUT INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME. LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW AT THE SURFACE DEVELOPS SUN WITH THE
ONSHORE FLOW DEEPENING INTO NEXT WEEK. LIGHT PRECIPITATION FROM THE
MARINE INFLUENCE MAY ENTER THE PICTURE LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE-WED.
GREATEST CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION WOULD BE OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS AND ALONG THE COAST. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DIFFER BY AROUND
MID-WEEK WITH THE 12Z ECMWF FORECASTING A LOW OVER THE GULF WITH
DEEP MOISTURE BRINGING AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SOME HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA WED AFTERNOON/EVENING. HAVE ADDED CHANCE
POPS TO THIS DAY BUT WILL WAIT FOR FURTHER MODEL CONSISTENCY TO SEE
IF THIS SCENARIO PLAYS OUT. TEMPERATURES WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF
CLIMO FOR THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR. VCSH KSUA VCNTY TONIGHT WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING
ONSHORE NORTH OF THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA.

&&

.MARINE...NE WINDS AT 12-15 KNOTS ACROSS THE WATERS AND SLIGHTLY
STRONGER ACROSS THE SRN WATERS WILL BUILD SEAS TO 4 TO 6 FT IN THE
GULF STREAM FOR THE BREVARD AND TREASURE COAST OFFSHORE WATERS
TODAY. WILL CONTINUE SCEC FOR THESE AREAS. NE WINDS ARE FORECAST
10-15 KNOTS ACROSS THE NRN WATERS TONIGHT AND 15-20 KNOTS ACROSS THE
SRN WATERS WHERE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS TIGHTER NEAR THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH. WILL LIKELY NEED TO KEEP SCEC GOING FOR THE
SRN WATERS INTO TONIGHT WITH SEAS UP TO 5-6 FT IN GULF STREAM.

FRI-FRI NIGHT...A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA
WITH STRONGER WINDS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. BORDERLINE
SCEC/SCA CONDITIONS SOUTH FROM SEBASTIAN INLET AWAY FROM THE COAST
DURING THE DAY ON FRI AS NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE 16-23 KTS HERE
WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER VALUES NORTHWARD. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE
AREAWIDE IN THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT BECOMING 10-15 KTS BY DAYBREAK SAT
MORNING. WIND DIRECTION FRI EVENING WILL BACK TO N/NNW. SEAS 2-4 FT
DURING THE DAY NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET...BUILDING TO 4-6 FT GULF
STREAM/OFFSHORE SOUTH OF HERE.

SAT-SAT NIGHT...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO RELAX A BIT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST WITH N/NW WIND SPEEDS 10-15
KTS NEAR SHORE AND AROUND 15 KTS OFFSHORE. SEAS INITIALLY 3-5 FT
SUBSIDING TO 2-4 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SUN-MON...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL WITH DEEPENING ONSHORE
FLOW BOTH DAYS. WIND SPEEDS AOB 15 KTS. SEAS 2-3 FT POSSIBLY
BUILDING MON OVERNIGHT TO 3-5 FT AWAY FROM THE COAST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MIN RHS WILL DROP TO BETWEEN 37-40 PCT ACROSS LAKE COUNTY TODAY WITH
NE WINDS OF 10-15 MPH. NO HEADLINES WILL BE REQUIRED. FRI-SUN...MIN
RHS WILL DROP TO AROUND 40 PCT OVER THE NRN INTERIOR FOR 1-3 HOURS
EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  78  58  79  60 /   0   0  10   0
MCO  81  60  82  60 /   0   0  10   0
MLB  79  65  81  64 /   0   0  10   0
VRB  81  68  82  66 /  10  10  20  10
LEE  80  58  82  59 /   0   0  10   0
SFB  80  59  82  59 /   0   0  10   0
ORL  82  61  82  62 /   0   0  10   0
FPR  81  69  81  66 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...VOLKMER
LONG TERM....SEDLOCK








000
FXUS62 KMLB 230018
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
818 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK COOL FRONT IS CURRENTLY PUSHING SOUTHWARD
INTO SOUTH FLORIDA THIS EVENING. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS HAVE
INCREASED BEHIND THE FRONT AND ALSO WITH THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE THAT PUSHED WEST THROUGH THE INTERIOR. HOWEVER WIND SPEEDS
SHOULD DECREASE AND BECOME MORE NORTHERLY OVER LAND AREAS PAST
MIDNIGHT. DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT TO KEEP RAIN CHANCES OUT OF
THE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. HOWEVER MAY STILL SEE A
FEW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE GULF STREAM WATERS OF THE
TREASURE COAST LATE TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW INCREASES
OVER THIS REGION. HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN THE GREATEST
ACROSS OKEECHOBEE COUNTY AND THE TREASURE COAST WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES EXPECTED FROM THE ORLANDO AREA NORTHWARD. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTHWEST OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR AND MID/UPPER 60S
ALONG THE COAST SOUTH OF THE CAPE.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS.


&&

.MARINE...INCREASING NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT UP
TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS OFFSHORE WILL PRODUCE CHOPPY SEAS UP TO 6 FEET
OVER THE GULF STREAM LATER TONIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN SMALL CRAFT
EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES FOR THIS PORTION OF THE WATERS.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

WEITLICH/PENDERGRAST









000
FXUS62 KMLB 230018
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
818 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK COOL FRONT IS CURRENTLY PUSHING SOUTHWARD
INTO SOUTH FLORIDA THIS EVENING. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS HAVE
INCREASED BEHIND THE FRONT AND ALSO WITH THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE THAT PUSHED WEST THROUGH THE INTERIOR. HOWEVER WIND SPEEDS
SHOULD DECREASE AND BECOME MORE NORTHERLY OVER LAND AREAS PAST
MIDNIGHT. DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT TO KEEP RAIN CHANCES OUT OF
THE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. HOWEVER MAY STILL SEE A
FEW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE GULF STREAM WATERS OF THE
TREASURE COAST LATE TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW INCREASES
OVER THIS REGION. HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN THE GREATEST
ACROSS OKEECHOBEE COUNTY AND THE TREASURE COAST WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES EXPECTED FROM THE ORLANDO AREA NORTHWARD. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTHWEST OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR AND MID/UPPER 60S
ALONG THE COAST SOUTH OF THE CAPE.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS.


&&

.MARINE...INCREASING NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT UP
TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS OFFSHORE WILL PRODUCE CHOPPY SEAS UP TO 6 FEET
OVER THE GULF STREAM LATER TONIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN SMALL CRAFT
EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES FOR THIS PORTION OF THE WATERS.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

WEITLICH/PENDERGRAST









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