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000
FXUS62 KMLB 201400
AFDMLB

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
900 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
...INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS LATE SUNDAY INTO WED...

MORNING UA DATA FROM XMR SHOWS AN INCREASE IN LL MOISTURE SINCE THIS
TIME FRIDAY. EARLY SAT/RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SOME LL CLOUD AND ASCD
LIGHT SHOWERS CONFINED OVER THE WARMER GULF STREAM WATERS. THE CHC
FOR ADTL SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH DUE TO DIURNAL MIXING AND DEVELOPMENT
OF LOWER LAPSE RATE. THE SHORT TERM FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY SHOULD FEATURE AN ADVANCING CANOPY OF HIGHER CLOUDINESS EWD
OVER THE REGION ASCD WITH A PASSING WIND MAXIMA ALOFT NORTH OF
THE STATE.

WOULDNT BE SURPRISED TO SEE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME LL CLOUDINESS NR
4-5K FT ASCD WITH SFC HEATING AND INCREASING MOISTURE...HOWEVER NO
PCPN IS EXPECTED AS SUPPORTING PWAT REMAIN TOO LOW.

WL MAKE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUDS IN THE DIGITAL DATA BASE. THE
TEXT FCST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDS PREVAILING INTO TONIGHT WITH SOME SCT BASES PSBL NR FL
040-050 MNLY FM 20/16Z-20/23Z.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY-TONIGHT...(PREV DISC) A WEAK AND BROAD HI PRES RIDGE
BLANKETING THE REGION FROM THE CAROLINA COAST TO THE BAHAMA BANK
WILL GENERATE A LIGHT TO GENTLE SRLY BREEZE ACRS THE LCL ATLC THRU
EARLY AFTN. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE E/SE BY MID AFTN AS THE
SEABREEZE FORMS...BUT THE WEAK PGRAD WILL NOT SUPPORT ANYTHING
GREATER THAN 10KTS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE E/NE OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRIFTS INTO THE FL PANHANDLE. SEAS AOB 2FT.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

JP/DKW






000
FXUS62 KMLB 201400
AFDMLB

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
900 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
...INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS LATE SUNDAY INTO WED...

MORNING UA DATA FROM XMR SHOWS AN INCREASE IN LL MOISTURE SINCE THIS
TIME FRIDAY. EARLY SAT/RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SOME LL CLOUD AND ASCD
LIGHT SHOWERS CONFINED OVER THE WARMER GULF STREAM WATERS. THE CHC
FOR ADTL SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH DUE TO DIURNAL MIXING AND DEVELOPMENT
OF LOWER LAPSE RATE. THE SHORT TERM FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY SHOULD FEATURE AN ADVANCING CANOPY OF HIGHER CLOUDINESS EWD
OVER THE REGION ASCD WITH A PASSING WIND MAXIMA ALOFT NORTH OF
THE STATE.

WOULDNT BE SURPRISED TO SEE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME LL CLOUDINESS NR
4-5K FT ASCD WITH SFC HEATING AND INCREASING MOISTURE...HOWEVER NO
PCPN IS EXPECTED AS SUPPORTING PWAT REMAIN TOO LOW.

WL MAKE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUDS IN THE DIGITAL DATA BASE. THE
TEXT FCST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDS PREVAILING INTO TONIGHT WITH SOME SCT BASES PSBL NR FL
040-050 MNLY FM 20/16Z-20/23Z.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY-TONIGHT...(PREV DISC) A WEAK AND BROAD HI PRES RIDGE
BLANKETING THE REGION FROM THE CAROLINA COAST TO THE BAHAMA BANK
WILL GENERATE A LIGHT TO GENTLE SRLY BREEZE ACRS THE LCL ATLC THRU
EARLY AFTN. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE E/SE BY MID AFTN AS THE
SEABREEZE FORMS...BUT THE WEAK PGRAD WILL NOT SUPPORT ANYTHING
GREATER THAN 10KTS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE E/NE OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRIFTS INTO THE FL PANHANDLE. SEAS AOB 2FT.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

JP/DKW







000
FXUS62 KMLB 200853
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
353 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY...

...INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS LATE SUNDAY INTO WED...

BROAD HI PRES RIDGE BLANKETING THE SW ATLC WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT
OVER THE GOMEX. EVENING SOUNDINGS SHOW INCREASING MOISTURE ACRS THE
PANHANDLE ASSOCD WITH THE FRONT WITH PWAT VALUES CREEPING ABV 1.0".
OVER CENTRAL FL...KTBW SOUNDING MEASURED PWATS ARND 0.8"...THOUGH
MOST OF THIS IS IN THE FORM OF A MID/UPR LVL DECK AS AVG DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS THRU THE H100-H70 LYR REMAIN BTWN 10-15C. TO THE S...
KMFL SHOWS SUBSTANTIAL DRY AIR THRU THE H85-H50 LYR. RUC ANALYSIS
INDICATES UPSTREAM H100-H70 MEAN RH VALUES INCREASING FROM 40PCT
OVER S FL TO AOA 80PCT OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...AND H85-H50 VALUES
INCREASING FROM ARND 40PCT OVER CENTRAL FL TO AOA 60PCT OVER THE
CENTRAL GOMEX.

ALOFT...A 90-110KT JET STREAK EXTENDING FROM THE BAJA PENINSULA TO
BERMUDA HAS A STRONG ZONAL ORIENTATION THAT IS GENERATING A DEEP
W/SW FLOW THRU THE H85-H30 LYR. MODERATELY COOL AIR AIR IN PLACE
WITH H50 TEMPS ARND -10C. SIG VORT MAXES ARE ALMOST NONEXISTENT THRU
THE H85-H30 LYR...WHILE THE OMEGA FIELDS THRU THE SAME LYR ARE
BASICALLY NEUTRAL. H70-H50 LAPSE RATES ARND 6.0C/KM ARE NOT
ESPECIALLY IMPRESSIVE...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE H85-H70 LAPSE RATES ARE
BLO 5.0C/KM.

TODAY-TONIGHT...
THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE THE PRIMARY WX FEATURE FOR CENTRAL FL AS THE
JET OVER THE SRN TIER STATES DRAGS THE WEAK COLD FRONT INTO THE FL
PANHANDLE. HOWEVER...THE ZONAL ORIENTATION OF THE JET WILL PREVENT
THE FRONT FROM PUSHING MUCH FURTHER S THAN THE NECK OF THE PENINSULA
BY DAYBREAK SUN.

RUC40 ANALYSIS SHOWS A TIGHT ISENTROPIC GRADIENT THRU THE 300K-315K
LYR THAT WILL EVENTUALLY SET THE STAGE FOR THE NEXT RAIN EVENT ACRS
CENTRAL FL AS THE MID LVL WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE W/SW. HOWEVER...
THE DRY AIR OVER THE CENTRAL/SRN PENINSULA WILL NEED TO MODIFY
BEFORE ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP OCCURS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE LACK OF
ANY SIG DYNAMIC/THERMODYNAMIC SUPPORT.

FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY. TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEG WARMER THAN FRI
DUE TO WARM AIR ADVECTION THAT WILL ACCOMPANY THE S/SW FLOW THAT HAS
DVLPD THRU THE H100-H85 LYR. AFTN MAXES IN THE M/U70S WILL BE 3-7F
DEG ABV AVG. OVERNIGHT MINS IN THE M/U50S EXCEPT L60S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST...5-10F ABV AVG.

SUN-WED...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A QUITE CLOUDY PERIOD WITH
DAILY RAIN CHANCES.

SUN-MON...A TROUGH WITH FAIRLY DECENT SOUTHERN EXTENT INTO THE
WESTERN GULF ON SUNDAY WILL DAMPEN OUT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES SUNDAY NIGHT/MON. THERE WILL INITIALLY BE A MID
LEVEL DRY LAYER SUNDAY BUT INCREASING SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE
LOW/MID LEVELS WILL MOISTEN UP THE ATMOSPHERE CONSIDERABLY BY LATE
DAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. GFS/ECMWF DIFFER A BIT WITH HIGHEST PRECIP
COVERAGE. THE GFS SHOWS HIGH POPS AREAWIDE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MON.
THE ECMWF CONCENTRATES THE HIGHEST COVERAGE ACROSS NORTHERN
SECTIONS...WHICH IS MORE TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR AND
WHERE THE GREATEST ISENTROPIC LIFT IS SHOWN. THEREFORE HAVE NOT
GONE WITH THE 60-70 POPS INDICATED BY THE GFS...EXCEPT ACROSS THE
FAR NORTH.  THINK THAT PRECIP WILL MAINLY BE SHOWERY BUT CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND ISOLATED THUNDER.

TUE-WED...THE MODELS ONLY SHOW SLIGHT CHANGES WITH THE NEXT
TROUGH WHICH WILL BE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND DIG WELL INTO THE GULF
OF MEXICO. A PRE FRONTAL BAND OF SHOWERS/STORMS IS EXPECTED TO
PUSH INTO NORTHERN SECTIONS TUE NIGHT AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS WED.
THIS IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS THINKING. THE DEEPENING
SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE LIFTING INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY AS THE BAND OF CONVECTION REACHES THE LOCAL AREA.
STILL THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS ARE PROGGED TO BE 40-45 KNOTS. SO
FAST MOVING STORMS ARE EXPECTED WHICH MAY BRING A CHANCE FOR
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS ON TUE DUE TO THE MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW
AND KEPT MENTION OF THUNDER DUE TO A POTENTIAL FOR SOME
DIVERGENCE ALOFT IN THE PRESENCE OF MODEST SURFACE HEATING.
GREATEST DYNAMICS ARE INDICATED TUE NIGHT INTO WED SO HAVE GONE
WITH A PERIOD OF LIKELY POPS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA THEN.

CHRISTMAS THRU NEXT SAT...
COOL/DRY AIR ADVECTION INDICATED ON CHRISTMAS DAY. MORNING LOWS IN
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S EXPECTED WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 60S. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE AREA ON FRI WILL
CONTINUE THE DRY WEATHER AND AFTER A COOL MORNING IN THE MID 40S
TO LOWER 50S...A SLOW MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES TO THE UPPER 60S
AND LOWER 70S IS EXPECTED. THE NEXT APPROACHING FRONT SHOULD
WEAKEN AS IT RUNS INTO WEAKENING SURFACE RIDGE...SO WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY ON SAT AS TEMPERATURES MODIFY TO NORMAL OR A LITTLE
ABOVE.

&&

.AVIATION...
SFC WINDS: THRU 20/15Z...VRBL AOB 3KTS. BTWN 20/15Z-20/18Z...S BTWN
4-7KTS. WNDSHFT TO E/SE 5-8KTS AFT 20/18Z...BTWN 20/18Z-20/20Z CSTL
SITES...BTWN 20/21Z-20/23Z INTERIOR SITES. AFT 21/00Z...VRBL AOB
3KTS.

VSBYS: THRU 20/13Z...LCL MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN BR. AFT 20/13Z VFR ALL
SITES.

CIGS: THRU 20/13Z...AREAS AOA FL120 N OF KTIX-KISM...LCL MVFR CIGS
BTWN FL020-030 CSTL SITES S OF KMLB. AFT 20/13Z...VFR ALL SITES...
PREVAILING CIGS AOA FL120 N OF KMLB-KISM...BCMG FL100-120 AFT 20/18Z.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY-TONIGHT...A WEAK AND BROAD HI PRES RIDGE BLANKETING THE REGION
FROM THE CAROLINA COAST TO THE BAHAMA BANK WILL GENERATE A LIGHT TO
GENTLE SRLY BREEZE ACRS THE LCL ATLC THRU EARLY AFTN. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE E/SE BY MID AFTN AS THE SEABREEZE FORMS...BUT THE WEAK
PGRAD WILL NOT SUPPORT ANYTHING GREATER THAN 10KTS. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE E/NE OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRIFTS INTO THE
FL PANHANDLE. SEAS AOB 2FT.

SUNDAY...SOUTHEAST FLOW STILL INDICATED AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS. THE
DAY LOOKS QUITE CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE IN THE DAY
ESPECIALLY CANAVERAL NORTHWARD.

MON-WED...WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT ESPECIALLY TUE-WED. EXPECT A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR STORMS IN A MOIST AIR MASS MON/TUE...BUT A
PERIOD OF STRONG STORMS IS EXPECTED LATE TUE NIGHT AND INTO WED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  73  59  74  64 /  10  10  30  70
MCO  76  59  77  64 /   0  10  20  50
MLB  77  62  77  66 /   0  10  20  50
VRB  77  61  77  64 /   0  10  10  40
LEE  75  58  76  63 /   0  10  30  70
SFB  76  59  76  64 /   0  10  30  60
ORL  76  60  76  64 /   0  10  30  60
FPR  77  60  77  65 /   0  10  10  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRAGAW
LONG TERM....LASCODY






000
FXUS62 KMLB 200853
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
353 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY...

...INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS LATE SUNDAY INTO WED...

BROAD HI PRES RIDGE BLANKETING THE SW ATLC WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT
OVER THE GOMEX. EVENING SOUNDINGS SHOW INCREASING MOISTURE ACRS THE
PANHANDLE ASSOCD WITH THE FRONT WITH PWAT VALUES CREEPING ABV 1.0".
OVER CENTRAL FL...KTBW SOUNDING MEASURED PWATS ARND 0.8"...THOUGH
MOST OF THIS IS IN THE FORM OF A MID/UPR LVL DECK AS AVG DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS THRU THE H100-H70 LYR REMAIN BTWN 10-15C. TO THE S...
KMFL SHOWS SUBSTANTIAL DRY AIR THRU THE H85-H50 LYR. RUC ANALYSIS
INDICATES UPSTREAM H100-H70 MEAN RH VALUES INCREASING FROM 40PCT
OVER S FL TO AOA 80PCT OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...AND H85-H50 VALUES
INCREASING FROM ARND 40PCT OVER CENTRAL FL TO AOA 60PCT OVER THE
CENTRAL GOMEX.

ALOFT...A 90-110KT JET STREAK EXTENDING FROM THE BAJA PENINSULA TO
BERMUDA HAS A STRONG ZONAL ORIENTATION THAT IS GENERATING A DEEP
W/SW FLOW THRU THE H85-H30 LYR. MODERATELY COOL AIR AIR IN PLACE
WITH H50 TEMPS ARND -10C. SIG VORT MAXES ARE ALMOST NONEXISTENT THRU
THE H85-H30 LYR...WHILE THE OMEGA FIELDS THRU THE SAME LYR ARE
BASICALLY NEUTRAL. H70-H50 LAPSE RATES ARND 6.0C/KM ARE NOT
ESPECIALLY IMPRESSIVE...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE H85-H70 LAPSE RATES ARE
BLO 5.0C/KM.

TODAY-TONIGHT...
THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE THE PRIMARY WX FEATURE FOR CENTRAL FL AS THE
JET OVER THE SRN TIER STATES DRAGS THE WEAK COLD FRONT INTO THE FL
PANHANDLE. HOWEVER...THE ZONAL ORIENTATION OF THE JET WILL PREVENT
THE FRONT FROM PUSHING MUCH FURTHER S THAN THE NECK OF THE PENINSULA
BY DAYBREAK SUN.

RUC40 ANALYSIS SHOWS A TIGHT ISENTROPIC GRADIENT THRU THE 300K-315K
LYR THAT WILL EVENTUALLY SET THE STAGE FOR THE NEXT RAIN EVENT ACRS
CENTRAL FL AS THE MID LVL WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE W/SW. HOWEVER...
THE DRY AIR OVER THE CENTRAL/SRN PENINSULA WILL NEED TO MODIFY
BEFORE ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP OCCURS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE LACK OF
ANY SIG DYNAMIC/THERMODYNAMIC SUPPORT.

FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY. TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEG WARMER THAN FRI
DUE TO WARM AIR ADVECTION THAT WILL ACCOMPANY THE S/SW FLOW THAT HAS
DVLPD THRU THE H100-H85 LYR. AFTN MAXES IN THE M/U70S WILL BE 3-7F
DEG ABV AVG. OVERNIGHT MINS IN THE M/U50S EXCEPT L60S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST...5-10F ABV AVG.

SUN-WED...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A QUITE CLOUDY PERIOD WITH
DAILY RAIN CHANCES.

SUN-MON...A TROUGH WITH FAIRLY DECENT SOUTHERN EXTENT INTO THE
WESTERN GULF ON SUNDAY WILL DAMPEN OUT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES SUNDAY NIGHT/MON. THERE WILL INITIALLY BE A MID
LEVEL DRY LAYER SUNDAY BUT INCREASING SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE
LOW/MID LEVELS WILL MOISTEN UP THE ATMOSPHERE CONSIDERABLY BY LATE
DAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. GFS/ECMWF DIFFER A BIT WITH HIGHEST PRECIP
COVERAGE. THE GFS SHOWS HIGH POPS AREAWIDE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MON.
THE ECMWF CONCENTRATES THE HIGHEST COVERAGE ACROSS NORTHERN
SECTIONS...WHICH IS MORE TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR AND
WHERE THE GREATEST ISENTROPIC LIFT IS SHOWN. THEREFORE HAVE NOT
GONE WITH THE 60-70 POPS INDICATED BY THE GFS...EXCEPT ACROSS THE
FAR NORTH.  THINK THAT PRECIP WILL MAINLY BE SHOWERY BUT CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND ISOLATED THUNDER.

TUE-WED...THE MODELS ONLY SHOW SLIGHT CHANGES WITH THE NEXT
TROUGH WHICH WILL BE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND DIG WELL INTO THE GULF
OF MEXICO. A PRE FRONTAL BAND OF SHOWERS/STORMS IS EXPECTED TO
PUSH INTO NORTHERN SECTIONS TUE NIGHT AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS WED.
THIS IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS THINKING. THE DEEPENING
SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE LIFTING INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY AS THE BAND OF CONVECTION REACHES THE LOCAL AREA.
STILL THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS ARE PROGGED TO BE 40-45 KNOTS. SO
FAST MOVING STORMS ARE EXPECTED WHICH MAY BRING A CHANCE FOR
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS ON TUE DUE TO THE MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW
AND KEPT MENTION OF THUNDER DUE TO A POTENTIAL FOR SOME
DIVERGENCE ALOFT IN THE PRESENCE OF MODEST SURFACE HEATING.
GREATEST DYNAMICS ARE INDICATED TUE NIGHT INTO WED SO HAVE GONE
WITH A PERIOD OF LIKELY POPS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA THEN.

CHRISTMAS THRU NEXT SAT...
COOL/DRY AIR ADVECTION INDICATED ON CHRISTMAS DAY. MORNING LOWS IN
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S EXPECTED WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 60S. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE AREA ON FRI WILL
CONTINUE THE DRY WEATHER AND AFTER A COOL MORNING IN THE MID 40S
TO LOWER 50S...A SLOW MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES TO THE UPPER 60S
AND LOWER 70S IS EXPECTED. THE NEXT APPROACHING FRONT SHOULD
WEAKEN AS IT RUNS INTO WEAKENING SURFACE RIDGE...SO WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY ON SAT AS TEMPERATURES MODIFY TO NORMAL OR A LITTLE
ABOVE.

&&

.AVIATION...
SFC WINDS: THRU 20/15Z...VRBL AOB 3KTS. BTWN 20/15Z-20/18Z...S BTWN
4-7KTS. WNDSHFT TO E/SE 5-8KTS AFT 20/18Z...BTWN 20/18Z-20/20Z CSTL
SITES...BTWN 20/21Z-20/23Z INTERIOR SITES. AFT 21/00Z...VRBL AOB
3KTS.

VSBYS: THRU 20/13Z...LCL MVFR/BRIEF IFR IN BR. AFT 20/13Z VFR ALL
SITES.

CIGS: THRU 20/13Z...AREAS AOA FL120 N OF KTIX-KISM...LCL MVFR CIGS
BTWN FL020-030 CSTL SITES S OF KMLB. AFT 20/13Z...VFR ALL SITES...
PREVAILING CIGS AOA FL120 N OF KMLB-KISM...BCMG FL100-120 AFT 20/18Z.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY-TONIGHT...A WEAK AND BROAD HI PRES RIDGE BLANKETING THE REGION
FROM THE CAROLINA COAST TO THE BAHAMA BANK WILL GENERATE A LIGHT TO
GENTLE SRLY BREEZE ACRS THE LCL ATLC THRU EARLY AFTN. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE E/SE BY MID AFTN AS THE SEABREEZE FORMS...BUT THE WEAK
PGRAD WILL NOT SUPPORT ANYTHING GREATER THAN 10KTS. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE E/NE OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRIFTS INTO THE
FL PANHANDLE. SEAS AOB 2FT.

SUNDAY...SOUTHEAST FLOW STILL INDICATED AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS. THE
DAY LOOKS QUITE CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE IN THE DAY
ESPECIALLY CANAVERAL NORTHWARD.

MON-WED...WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT ESPECIALLY TUE-WED. EXPECT A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR STORMS IN A MOIST AIR MASS MON/TUE...BUT A
PERIOD OF STRONG STORMS IS EXPECTED LATE TUE NIGHT AND INTO WED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  73  59  74  64 /  10  10  30  70
MCO  76  59  77  64 /   0  10  20  50
MLB  77  62  77  66 /   0  10  20  50
VRB  77  61  77  64 /   0  10  10  40
LEE  75  58  76  63 /   0  10  30  70
SFB  76  59  76  64 /   0  10  30  60
ORL  76  60  76  64 /   0  10  30  60
FPR  77  60  77  65 /   0  10  10  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRAGAW
LONG TERM....LASCODY





000
FXUS62 KMLB 200109
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
810 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

...RATHER BENIGN WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND THEN INCREASING CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WED...

.UPDATE...UPPER LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS
CENTRAL FLORIDA OVERNIGHT WITH SOME PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDINESS AS
90-95 KT UPPER LVL JET TRAVERSES THE AREA. AT THE SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS WEAK WITH CALM TO LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED. GUID CONTINUES
TO INDICATE LIKELIHOOD FOR AT LEAST SOME PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG AND
WILL CONTINUE FOR THE OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 50S
WITH SOME UPPER 40S IN COOLER SPOTS. ZFP UPDATE WILL TWEAK WIND
WORDING JUST A BIT.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR. LIGHT TO CALM WINDS ALL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT.
LIGHT S-SSW MORNING WINDS BECOMING LIGHT ESE/SE IN THE AFTERNOON
REMAINING AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS MOST TAF SITES. HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL
CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WITH A STRONG JET STREAM INFLUENCE
OVERHEAD. MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HINT AT SOME PATCHY FOG TOWARDS
SUNRISE SAT MORNING...ESPECIALLY INLAND FROM THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS 1-2 FT ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL FL WATERS THIS EVENING
WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING E-SE OVERNIGHT AND LIGHT
SOUTHERLY BY SAT MORNING. LIGHT MORNING SSW/SW FLOW SAT MAY BECOME
AN ONSHORE COMPONENT DURING THE AFTERNOON...SO LOW CONFIDENCE IN
PREDICTING WIND DIRECTION. SEAS MAINLY 1-2 FT...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT
OCCASIONAL 3 FT SEAS OVER THE OFFSHORE GULF STREAM. STILL FINE
BOATING CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT. WHILE HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL
INCREASE OVER THE AREA...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABSENT
FROM THE FORECAST. A PERSISTENT EASTERLY LONG PERIOD SWELL AROUND 10
SECONDS WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  51  73  58  75 /   0   0  10  30
MCO  52  76  57  79 /   0   0  10  20
MLB  53  75  60  77 /   0   0  10  20
VRB  54  76  59  77 /   0   0  10  10
LEE  51  73  56  78 /   0   0  10  30
SFB  52  75  57  78 /   0   0  10  30
ORL  54  75  57  78 /   0   0  10  20
FPR  53  75  59  77 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

VOLKMER/MOSES







000
FXUS62 KMLB 200109
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
810 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

...RATHER BENIGN WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND THEN INCREASING CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WED...

.UPDATE...UPPER LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS
CENTRAL FLORIDA OVERNIGHT WITH SOME PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDINESS AS
90-95 KT UPPER LVL JET TRAVERSES THE AREA. AT THE SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS WEAK WITH CALM TO LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED. GUID CONTINUES
TO INDICATE LIKELIHOOD FOR AT LEAST SOME PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG AND
WILL CONTINUE FOR THE OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 50S
WITH SOME UPPER 40S IN COOLER SPOTS. ZFP UPDATE WILL TWEAK WIND
WORDING JUST A BIT.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR. LIGHT TO CALM WINDS ALL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT.
LIGHT S-SSW MORNING WINDS BECOMING LIGHT ESE/SE IN THE AFTERNOON
REMAINING AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS MOST TAF SITES. HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL
CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WITH A STRONG JET STREAM INFLUENCE
OVERHEAD. MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HINT AT SOME PATCHY FOG TOWARDS
SUNRISE SAT MORNING...ESPECIALLY INLAND FROM THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS 1-2 FT ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL FL WATERS THIS EVENING
WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING E-SE OVERNIGHT AND LIGHT
SOUTHERLY BY SAT MORNING. LIGHT MORNING SSW/SW FLOW SAT MAY BECOME
AN ONSHORE COMPONENT DURING THE AFTERNOON...SO LOW CONFIDENCE IN
PREDICTING WIND DIRECTION. SEAS MAINLY 1-2 FT...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT
OCCASIONAL 3 FT SEAS OVER THE OFFSHORE GULF STREAM. STILL FINE
BOATING CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT. WHILE HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL
INCREASE OVER THE AREA...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABSENT
FROM THE FORECAST. A PERSISTENT EASTERLY LONG PERIOD SWELL AROUND 10
SECONDS WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  51  73  58  75 /   0   0  10  30
MCO  52  76  57  79 /   0   0  10  20
MLB  53  75  60  77 /   0   0  10  20
VRB  54  76  59  77 /   0   0  10  10
LEE  51  73  56  78 /   0   0  10  30
SFB  52  75  57  78 /   0   0  10  30
ORL  54  75  57  78 /   0   0  10  20
FPR  53  75  59  77 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

VOLKMER/MOSES








000
FXUS62 KMLB 191840
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
140 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

...RATHER BENIGN WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND THEN INCREASING CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY WED...

CURRENT-TONIGHT...RATHER STRONG JET INFLUENCE ALOFT KEEPING HIGH
CLOUDS STREAMING OVERHEAD. THIS IS LIMITING AFTERNOON
HIGHS...ESPECIALLY NORTHWARD THAT ARE STRUGGLING INTO THE UPPER 60S.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER THE GULF COAST NEAR
TEXAS/LOUISIANA WITH THIS FEATURE MOVING EASTWARD OVERNIGHT TO NEAR
THE LOUISIANA/MISSISSIPPI GULF COAST BY SUNRISE SAT MORNING. A COLD
FRONT WILL EXTEND SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE LOW. IN RESPONSE WINDS IN
THE LOW-LEVELS WILL VEER FROM NORTHEAST TO MORE SOUTHERLY BY THE END
OF THIS PERIOD...THOUGH WILL REMAIN LIGHT. WHILE CONDITIONS REMAIN
DRY THE HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL LIMIT OVERNIGHT MINS FROM FALLING TOO
FAR WITH FORECAST LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S...EXCEPT
NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS OVER THE INTERIOR STILL REALIZING UPPER
40S. MOS GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT/TOWARDS SUNRISE AND HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG MENTION TO MOST
AREAS. THICKER CLOUD COVER MAY INHIBIT FOG FORMATION FOR SOME AREAS.

SAT...OVERHEAD HIGH CLOUDINESS CONTINUES WITH STRONG JET STREAM
INFLUENCE ACROSS THE REGION. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE WEST
WILL MAKE ONLY SLIGHT PROGRESS EASTWARD KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY FOR
ANOTHER DAY ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. LIGHT/VARIABLE EARLY
MORNING WINDS WILL TRANSITION TO A LIGHT ONSHORE COMPONENT BY
AFTERNOON. MOISTURE GRADUALLY BEGINS TO INCREASE IN THE LOW-LEVELS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE...THOUGH SHALLOW...WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
FORECAST IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S AREAWIDE. UPPER 70S NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION NEAR THE TREASURE COAST AND AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

PREVIOUS EXTENDED DISCUSSION STILL VALID...
SUN/SUN NIGHT...TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GULF IS FORECAST TO
INDUCE A WEAK LOW PRESSURE WAVE IN THE CENTRAL GULF. INITIAL MID
LEVEL DRY LAYER WILL STEADILY MOISTEN AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM BUT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO NOT SHOW EROSION OF THE DRY LAYER UNTIL SUN
NIGHT. SO THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON SUNDAY LOOKS LOW AND HAVE GONE
WITH A MAX OF 30 PERCENT IN THE NORTH BUT KEPT POPS OUT OF THE
FORECAST IN THE SOUTH. MOS POPS JUMP TO OVER 70 PERCENT IN THE NORTH
SUNDAY NIGHT AND 50 IN THE SOUTH. THIS LOOKS REASONABLE AND HAVE
FOLLOWED CLOSE TO THOSE NUMBERS. DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION SHOULD GENERATE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND SLIGHT
THUNDER CHANCES TOO...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH.

MON THRU NEXT FRI...
MAIN FEATURE WILL BE A TROUGH THAT DIGS OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE
COUNTRY AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...PRODUCING A STRONG COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE AT MID WEEK.

MON...BAND OF HIGH MOISTURE AND WEAK DIVERGENCE ALOFT IS PROGGED
TO LINGER OVER THE AREA. CONSENSUS POPS ARE 30 PERCENT SOUTH AND
50 NORTH AND HAVE FOLLOWED...BUT MAY END UP BEING A BIT HIGHER IN
LATER FORECASTS.

TUE-WED...THE AMPLIFYING TROUGH OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE
COUNTRY WILL GENERATE A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW OVER THE DEEP SOUTH
TUESDAY...WHICH WILL LIFT QUICKLY NORTHEAST THROUGH TUE NIGHT.
THIS WILL INCREASE LOW LEVEL WINDS WITH 925-850 MB SPEEDS NEAR 40
KNOTS INDICATED. THE ECMWF IS EVEN A LITTLE STRONGER. THEREFORE
EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR STRONG STORMS AS A PRE FRONTAL BAND OF
CONVECTION MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. RIGHT NOW THE GREATEST CHANCE
FOR HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG STORMS IS FAVORING TUE NIGHT. SOME
CONVECTION MAY LINGER INTO WED THEN COOL/DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL
SWEEP IN WITH A BREEZY DAY INDICATED.

CHRISTMAS-FRI...IT WILL START OFF COOL ON CHRISTMAS WITH LOWS
MOSTLY IN THE 40S. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL PROVIDE A SUNNY
DAY AND HIGH TEMPS A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL. THE RIDGE WILL PUSH
OFFSHORE FRI AND TEMPS SHOULD MODIFY TO NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
WITH CONTINUED DRY WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR. NE FLOW BECOMING BELOW 5 KTS TO CALM BY
EARLY THIS EVENING. SSW MORNING WINDS BECOMING LIGHT ESE/SE IN THE
AFTERNOON REMAINING AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS MOST TAF SITES. HIGH
CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WITH A STRONG JET
STREAM INFLUENCE OVERHEAD. MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HINT AT SOME
PATCHY FOG TOWARDS SUNRISE SAT MORNING...ESPECIALLY INLAND FROM THE
COAST.

&&

.MARINE...CURRENT-SAT...A LIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL EXIST OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN
BELOW 10 KTS WITH WINDS VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD. N/NE WINDS INTO
EARLY EVENING ARE FORECAST TO VEER TO E/ESE THRU LATE EVENING...THEN
FURTHER SE/S OR POSSIBLY SSW BY DAYBREAK SAT MORNING. LIGHT MORNING
SSW/SW FLOW SAT MAY BECOME AN ONSHORE COMPONENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON...SO LOW CONFIDENCE IN PREDICTING WIND DIRECTION. SEAS
MAINLY AOB 2 FT...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT OCCASIONAL 3 FT SEAS OVER THE
GULF STREAM. STILL FINE BOATING CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT. WHILE
HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA...PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABSENT FROM THE FORECAST. A PERSISTENT EASTERLY
LONG PERIOD SWELL AROUND 10 SECONDS WILL CONTINUE.

PREVIOUS EXTENDED...
MON-TUE...HIGH SHOWER CHANCES WITH ISOLATED STORMS ARE FORECAST
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MAY LINGER INTO MON. WINDS WILL BE VEERING TO THE
SOUTH AND SHOULD START TO INCREASE AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT
ESPECIALLY LATE ON TUE. WITH HIGH MOISTURE CONTINUING TUE...THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR STORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON...LIGHT N/NE SFC/TRANSPORT AS
WEAK HI PRES RIDGE PUSHES ACRS THE FL PENINSULA. RATHER POOR
DISPERSION WILL CONTINUE AS A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION KEEPS
MIXING HEIGHTS BLO 2500FT. AFTN RH VALUES ALONG AND N OF THE I-4
CORRIDOR WILL FALL BLO 35PCT FOR 2-4HRS...BUT ERC VALUES REMAIN TOO
LOW TO TRIGGER CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS.

SAT...A MORE SOUTHERLY INFLUENCE IN THE LOW-LEVELS IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM WILL INCREASE MOISTURE GRADUALLY AND NOT
ALLOW AFTN MIN RH`S FROM FALLING FURTHER THAN THE 40S.
HOWEVER...DISPERSION INDICES WILL REMAIN RATHER POOR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  51  73  58  75 /   0   0  10  30
MCO  52  76  57  79 /   0   0  10  20
MLB  53  75  60  77 /   0   0  10  20
VRB  54  76  59  77 /   0   0  10  10
LEE  51  73  56  78 /   0   0  10  30
SFB  52  75  57  78 /   0   0  10  30
ORL  54  75  57  78 /   0   0  10  20
FPR  53  75  59  77 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...SEDLOCK
IMPACT WEATHER/LONG TERM....GLITTO






000
FXUS62 KMLB 191840
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
140 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

...RATHER BENIGN WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND THEN INCREASING CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY WED...

CURRENT-TONIGHT...RATHER STRONG JET INFLUENCE ALOFT KEEPING HIGH
CLOUDS STREAMING OVERHEAD. THIS IS LIMITING AFTERNOON
HIGHS...ESPECIALLY NORTHWARD THAT ARE STRUGGLING INTO THE UPPER 60S.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER THE GULF COAST NEAR
TEXAS/LOUISIANA WITH THIS FEATURE MOVING EASTWARD OVERNIGHT TO NEAR
THE LOUISIANA/MISSISSIPPI GULF COAST BY SUNRISE SAT MORNING. A COLD
FRONT WILL EXTEND SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE LOW. IN RESPONSE WINDS IN
THE LOW-LEVELS WILL VEER FROM NORTHEAST TO MORE SOUTHERLY BY THE END
OF THIS PERIOD...THOUGH WILL REMAIN LIGHT. WHILE CONDITIONS REMAIN
DRY THE HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL LIMIT OVERNIGHT MINS FROM FALLING TOO
FAR WITH FORECAST LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S...EXCEPT
NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS OVER THE INTERIOR STILL REALIZING UPPER
40S. MOS GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT/TOWARDS SUNRISE AND HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG MENTION TO MOST
AREAS. THICKER CLOUD COVER MAY INHIBIT FOG FORMATION FOR SOME AREAS.

SAT...OVERHEAD HIGH CLOUDINESS CONTINUES WITH STRONG JET STREAM
INFLUENCE ACROSS THE REGION. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE WEST
WILL MAKE ONLY SLIGHT PROGRESS EASTWARD KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY FOR
ANOTHER DAY ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. LIGHT/VARIABLE EARLY
MORNING WINDS WILL TRANSITION TO A LIGHT ONSHORE COMPONENT BY
AFTERNOON. MOISTURE GRADUALLY BEGINS TO INCREASE IN THE LOW-LEVELS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE...THOUGH SHALLOW...WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
FORECAST IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S AREAWIDE. UPPER 70S NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION NEAR THE TREASURE COAST AND AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

PREVIOUS EXTENDED DISCUSSION STILL VALID...
SUN/SUN NIGHT...TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GULF IS FORECAST TO
INDUCE A WEAK LOW PRESSURE WAVE IN THE CENTRAL GULF. INITIAL MID
LEVEL DRY LAYER WILL STEADILY MOISTEN AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM BUT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO NOT SHOW EROSION OF THE DRY LAYER UNTIL SUN
NIGHT. SO THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON SUNDAY LOOKS LOW AND HAVE GONE
WITH A MAX OF 30 PERCENT IN THE NORTH BUT KEPT POPS OUT OF THE
FORECAST IN THE SOUTH. MOS POPS JUMP TO OVER 70 PERCENT IN THE NORTH
SUNDAY NIGHT AND 50 IN THE SOUTH. THIS LOOKS REASONABLE AND HAVE
FOLLOWED CLOSE TO THOSE NUMBERS. DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION SHOULD GENERATE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND SLIGHT
THUNDER CHANCES TOO...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH.

MON THRU NEXT FRI...
MAIN FEATURE WILL BE A TROUGH THAT DIGS OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE
COUNTRY AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...PRODUCING A STRONG COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE AT MID WEEK.

MON...BAND OF HIGH MOISTURE AND WEAK DIVERGENCE ALOFT IS PROGGED
TO LINGER OVER THE AREA. CONSENSUS POPS ARE 30 PERCENT SOUTH AND
50 NORTH AND HAVE FOLLOWED...BUT MAY END UP BEING A BIT HIGHER IN
LATER FORECASTS.

TUE-WED...THE AMPLIFYING TROUGH OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE
COUNTRY WILL GENERATE A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW OVER THE DEEP SOUTH
TUESDAY...WHICH WILL LIFT QUICKLY NORTHEAST THROUGH TUE NIGHT.
THIS WILL INCREASE LOW LEVEL WINDS WITH 925-850 MB SPEEDS NEAR 40
KNOTS INDICATED. THE ECMWF IS EVEN A LITTLE STRONGER. THEREFORE
EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR STRONG STORMS AS A PRE FRONTAL BAND OF
CONVECTION MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. RIGHT NOW THE GREATEST CHANCE
FOR HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG STORMS IS FAVORING TUE NIGHT. SOME
CONVECTION MAY LINGER INTO WED THEN COOL/DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL
SWEEP IN WITH A BREEZY DAY INDICATED.

CHRISTMAS-FRI...IT WILL START OFF COOL ON CHRISTMAS WITH LOWS
MOSTLY IN THE 40S. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL PROVIDE A SUNNY
DAY AND HIGH TEMPS A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL. THE RIDGE WILL PUSH
OFFSHORE FRI AND TEMPS SHOULD MODIFY TO NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
WITH CONTINUED DRY WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR. NE FLOW BECOMING BELOW 5 KTS TO CALM BY
EARLY THIS EVENING. SSW MORNING WINDS BECOMING LIGHT ESE/SE IN THE
AFTERNOON REMAINING AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS MOST TAF SITES. HIGH
CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WITH A STRONG JET
STREAM INFLUENCE OVERHEAD. MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HINT AT SOME
PATCHY FOG TOWARDS SUNRISE SAT MORNING...ESPECIALLY INLAND FROM THE
COAST.

&&

.MARINE...CURRENT-SAT...A LIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL EXIST OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN
BELOW 10 KTS WITH WINDS VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD. N/NE WINDS INTO
EARLY EVENING ARE FORECAST TO VEER TO E/ESE THRU LATE EVENING...THEN
FURTHER SE/S OR POSSIBLY SSW BY DAYBREAK SAT MORNING. LIGHT MORNING
SSW/SW FLOW SAT MAY BECOME AN ONSHORE COMPONENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON...SO LOW CONFIDENCE IN PREDICTING WIND DIRECTION. SEAS
MAINLY AOB 2 FT...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT OCCASIONAL 3 FT SEAS OVER THE
GULF STREAM. STILL FINE BOATING CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT. WHILE
HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA...PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABSENT FROM THE FORECAST. A PERSISTENT EASTERLY
LONG PERIOD SWELL AROUND 10 SECONDS WILL CONTINUE.

PREVIOUS EXTENDED...
MON-TUE...HIGH SHOWER CHANCES WITH ISOLATED STORMS ARE FORECAST
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MAY LINGER INTO MON. WINDS WILL BE VEERING TO THE
SOUTH AND SHOULD START TO INCREASE AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT
ESPECIALLY LATE ON TUE. WITH HIGH MOISTURE CONTINUING TUE...THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR STORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON...LIGHT N/NE SFC/TRANSPORT AS
WEAK HI PRES RIDGE PUSHES ACRS THE FL PENINSULA. RATHER POOR
DISPERSION WILL CONTINUE AS A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION KEEPS
MIXING HEIGHTS BLO 2500FT. AFTN RH VALUES ALONG AND N OF THE I-4
CORRIDOR WILL FALL BLO 35PCT FOR 2-4HRS...BUT ERC VALUES REMAIN TOO
LOW TO TRIGGER CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS.

SAT...A MORE SOUTHERLY INFLUENCE IN THE LOW-LEVELS IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM WILL INCREASE MOISTURE GRADUALLY AND NOT
ALLOW AFTN MIN RH`S FROM FALLING FURTHER THAN THE 40S.
HOWEVER...DISPERSION INDICES WILL REMAIN RATHER POOR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  51  73  58  75 /   0   0  10  30
MCO  52  76  57  79 /   0   0  10  20
MLB  53  75  60  77 /   0   0  10  20
VRB  54  76  59  77 /   0   0  10  10
LEE  51  73  56  78 /   0   0  10  30
SFB  52  75  57  78 /   0   0  10  30
ORL  54  75  57  78 /   0   0  10  20
FPR  53  75  59  77 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...SEDLOCK
IMPACT WEATHER/LONG TERM....GLITTO







000
FXUS62 KMLB 191403
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
903 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT-TONIGHT...MORNING KXMR SOUNDING SHOWS DRY CONDITIONS WITH A
PWAT OF 0.77 INCHES. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS INVADING ACROSS THE I-4
CORRIDOR THIS MORNING WITH THIS TRENDING FURTHER SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE DAY. THIS CLOUDINESS IN ADVANCE OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPING OVER THE TEXAS EAST COAST/LOUISIANA COAST AND ALSO IN
PART TO A STRONG JET STREAM OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES PERHAPS A BIT
WARMER THIS AFTERNOON SOUTHWARD WITH UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES
ALONG THE I-4 CORRIDOR AND LOWER 70S SOUTHWARD...EXCEPT MIDDLE 70S
NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE. HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT SHOULD KEEP MOST AREAS IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S FOR LOWS WITH A FEW UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60
DEGREE READINGS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SPACE/TREASURE COASTS.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. EARLY MORNING LIGHT N/NW WINDS VEERING NE/ENE THRU
THE AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS BELOW 10 KTS. HIGH CLOUDINESS INVADING
FROM THE WEST...ESPECIALLY NORTHWARD WITH STRONG JET STREAM
OVERHEAD. MOS GUIDANCE HINTING AT SOME PATCHY FOG TOWARDS SUNRISE
SAT MORNING...ESPECIALLY INTERIOR TAF SITES.

&&

.MARINE...TODAY-TONIGHT...FINE BOATING CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR SMALL
CRAFT WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AFFECTING THE AREA. GENTLE MORNING NW
BREEZE AOB 10 KTS FORECAST TO VEER TO N/NE/E THRU THE DAY/EARLY
EVENING AND ESE/SE/S LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SEAS 1 FT
NEAR SHORE AND 2 FT OFFSHORE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...TODAY...PREVIOUS...LIGHT NRLY SFC/TRANSPORT WINDS
WILL VEER TO THE NE BY EARLY AFTN AS A WEAK HI PRES RIDGE PUSHES
ACRS THE FL PENINSULA. POOR TO FAIR DISPERSION WILL CONTINUE AS A
STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION KEEPS MIXING HEIGHTS BLO 2500FT. AFTN RH
VALUES ALONG AND N OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR WILL FALL BLO 35PCT FOR
4-6HRS...BUT ERC VALUES REMAIN TOO LOW TO TRIGGER CRITICAL FIRE
CONDITIONS.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SEDLOCK/GLITTO






000
FXUS62 KMLB 191403
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
903 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT-TONIGHT...MORNING KXMR SOUNDING SHOWS DRY CONDITIONS WITH A
PWAT OF 0.77 INCHES. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS INVADING ACROSS THE I-4
CORRIDOR THIS MORNING WITH THIS TRENDING FURTHER SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE DAY. THIS CLOUDINESS IN ADVANCE OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPING OVER THE TEXAS EAST COAST/LOUISIANA COAST AND ALSO IN
PART TO A STRONG JET STREAM OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES PERHAPS A BIT
WARMER THIS AFTERNOON SOUTHWARD WITH UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES
ALONG THE I-4 CORRIDOR AND LOWER 70S SOUTHWARD...EXCEPT MIDDLE 70S
NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE. HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT SHOULD KEEP MOST AREAS IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S FOR LOWS WITH A FEW UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60
DEGREE READINGS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SPACE/TREASURE COASTS.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. EARLY MORNING LIGHT N/NW WINDS VEERING NE/ENE THRU
THE AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS BELOW 10 KTS. HIGH CLOUDINESS INVADING
FROM THE WEST...ESPECIALLY NORTHWARD WITH STRONG JET STREAM
OVERHEAD. MOS GUIDANCE HINTING AT SOME PATCHY FOG TOWARDS SUNRISE
SAT MORNING...ESPECIALLY INTERIOR TAF SITES.

&&

.MARINE...TODAY-TONIGHT...FINE BOATING CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR SMALL
CRAFT WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AFFECTING THE AREA. GENTLE MORNING NW
BREEZE AOB 10 KTS FORECAST TO VEER TO N/NE/E THRU THE DAY/EARLY
EVENING AND ESE/SE/S LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SEAS 1 FT
NEAR SHORE AND 2 FT OFFSHORE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...TODAY...PREVIOUS...LIGHT NRLY SFC/TRANSPORT WINDS
WILL VEER TO THE NE BY EARLY AFTN AS A WEAK HI PRES RIDGE PUSHES
ACRS THE FL PENINSULA. POOR TO FAIR DISPERSION WILL CONTINUE AS A
STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION KEEPS MIXING HEIGHTS BLO 2500FT. AFTN RH
VALUES ALONG AND N OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR WILL FALL BLO 35PCT FOR
4-6HRS...BUT ERC VALUES REMAIN TOO LOW TO TRIGGER CRITICAL FIRE
CONDITIONS.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SEDLOCK/GLITTO







000
FXUS62 KMLB 190901
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
401 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

...RATHER BENIGN WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND THEN INCREASING CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY WED...

TODAY-TONIGHT...
EVNG RAOBS SHOW A VERY DRY/STABLE AIRMASS ACRS CNTRL/SRN FL...BUT
INCREASING MID/UPR LVL CLOUDS OVER N FL ASSOCD WITH A 110-130KT
H30-H20 JET STREAK EXTENDING FROM THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TO THE MID
ATLC COAST. THIS JET WILL PUSH AN H100-H70 RIDGE FROM THE CENTRAL
GOMEX ACRS THE FL PENINSULA TODAY...THEN E OF THE BAHAMA BANK
OVERNIGHT. SFC WINDS WILL RESPOND BY VEERING FROM N TO NE THRU EARLY
AFTN...TO THE E BY MIDNIGHT...THEN TO THE S/SE BY DAYBREAK.
UPSTREAM...LOW LVL MOISTURE ASSOCD WITH THE RIDGE REMAINS WITH
H100-H70 MEAN RH VALUES BLO 50PCT. MID/UPR LVL MOISTURE A BIT HIGHER
WITH H85-H50 VALUES BTWN 60-80PCT...H40-H20 VALUES ARND
50PCT...MATCHING UP WELL WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED JET.

AS THE JET PASSES OVER THE SE CONUS...MID/UPR LVL CLOUD DECK WILL
STREAM ACRS THE N HALF OF THE PENINSULA WITH SOME HI CLOUDS WORKING
THEIR WAY S OF SR60. THIS SHOULD WORK TO KEEP AFTN MAX TEMPS IN THE
U60S ALONG AND N OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR...WHILE L/M70S WILL BE THE RULE
TO THE S. LOW/MID LVL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AS WELL AS WINDS THRU
THE H100-H70 VEER TO AN ONSHORE COMPONENT. HOWEVER...DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS IN THE H85-H50 LYR ACRS CENTRAL/SRN FL ARE ON THE ORDER
OF 30-35C AND WILL REQUIRE SUBSTANTIAL MODIFICATION BEFORE PRECIP
CAN BE INTRODUCED TO THE FCST.

WEEKEND...
SAT...WEAK LOW LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL PRODUCE A LIGHT ONSHORE
FLOW. ZONAL/UNPERTURBED FLOW ALOFT LOCALLY WILL PROMOTE A CONTINUED
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND KEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHALLOW. HENCE
THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY. MAX TEMPS WILL MODIFY BUT A CONTINUED
STREAM OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT THIS TO ABOUT 3-5 DEGREES...
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S EXCEPT FOR LOWER 70S NORTH AND MAYBE SOME
UPPER 70S AROUND OKEECHOBEE.

SUN/SUN NIGHT...TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GULF IS FORECAST TO
INDUCE A WEAK LOW PRESSURE WAVE IN THE CENTRAL GULF. INITIAL MID
LEVEL DRY LAYER WILL STEADILY MOISTEN AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM BUT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO NOT SHOW EROSION OF THE DRY LAYER UNTIL SUN
NIGHT. SO THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON SUNDAY LOOKS LOW AND HAVE GONE
WITH A MAX OF 30 PERCENT IN THE NORTH BUT KEPT POPS OUT OF THE
FORECAST IN THE SOUTH. MOS POPS JUMP TO OVER 70 PERCENT IN THE
NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND 50 IN THE SOUTH. THIS LOOKS REASONABLE AND
HAVE FOLLOWED CLOSE TO THOSE NUMBERS. DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND LOW
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION SHOULD GENERATE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND
SLIGHT THUNDER CHANCES TOO...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH.

MON THRU NEXT FRI...
MAIN FEATURE WILL BE A TROUGH THAT DIGS OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE
COUNTRY AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...PRODUCING A STRONG COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE AT MID WEEK.

MON...BAND OF HIGH MOISTURE AND WEAK DIVERGENCE ALOFT IS PROGGED
TO LINGER OVER THE AREA. CONSENSUS POPS ARE 30 PERCENT SOUTH AND
50 NORTH AND HAVE FOLLOWED...BUT MAY END UP BEING A BIT HIGHER IN
LATER FORECASTS.

TUE-WED...THE AMPLIFYING TROUGH OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE
COUNTRY WILL GENERATE A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW OVER THE DEEP SOUTH
TUESDAY...WHICH WILL LIFT QUICKLY NORTHEAST THROUGH TUE NIGHT.
THIS WILL INCREASE LOW LEVEL WINDS WITH 925-850 MB SPEEDS NEAR 40
KNOTS INDICATED. THE ECMWF IS EVEN A LITTLE STRONGER. THEREFORE
EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR STRONG STORMS AS A PRE FRONTAL BAND OF
CONVECTION MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. RIGHT NOW THE GREATEST CHANCE
FOR HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG STORMS IS FAVORING TUE NIGHT. SOME
CONVECTION MAY LINGER INTO WED THEN COOL/DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL
SWEEP IN WITH A BREEZY DAY INDICATED.

CHRISTMAS-FRI...IT WILL START OFF COOL ON CHRISTMAS WITH LOWS
MOSTLY IN THE 40S. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL PROVIDE A SUNNY
DAY AND HIGH TEMPS A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL. THE RIDGE WILL PUSH
OFFSHORE FRI AND TEMPS SHOULD MODIFY TO NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
WITH CONTINUED DRY WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...
SFC WINDS: THRU 19/15Z...VRBL AOB 3KTS. BTWN 19/15Z-19/18Z...N/NE
ARND 5KTS. AFT 19/18Z...E/NE BTWN 5-8KTS.

VSBYS/CIGS: THRU 20/00Z...VFR ALL SITES...PREVAILING CIGS AOA FL120
N OF KMLB-KISM.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY-TONIGHT...A HI PRES RIDGE OVER THE GOMEX WILL WEAKEN AS IT
DRIFTS ACRS CENTRAL FL TODAY...THE E OF THE BAHAMA BANK OVERNIGHT.
AS IT DOES...THE PREVAILING LIGHT TO GENTLE NRLY BREEZE WILL VEER TO
THE NE BY EARLY AFTN...TO THE E BY MIDNIGHT...THEN TO THE S/SE THRU
DAYBREAK. FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE WITH SUSTAINED
WIND SPEEDS AOB 10KTS...SEAS GENERALLY AOB 2FT...UP TO 3FT IN THE
GULF STREAM.

WEEKEND...A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL RESULT IN WINDS 5 TO 10
KNOTS SAT...MAINLY FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST. A SLIGHT INCREASE
IN SOUTHEAST WINDS TO NEAR 10 KNOTS IS INDICTED ON SUNDAY. THOUGH
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY...THERE
WILL BE NO RAIN CHANCES UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

MON-TUE...HIGH SHOWER CHANCES WITH ISOLATED STORMS ARE FORECAST
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MAY LINGER INTO MON. WINDS WILL BE VEERING TO THE
SOUTH AND SHOULD START TO INCREASE AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT
ESPECIALLY LATE ON TUE. WITH HIGH MOISTURE CONTINUING TUE...THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR STORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TODAY...LIGHT NRLY SFC/TRANSPORT WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NE BY
EARLY AFTN AS A WEAK HI PRES RIDGE PUSHES ACRS THE FL PENINSULA.
POOR TO FAIR DISPERSION WILL CONTINUE AS A STRONG SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION KEEPS MIXING HEIGHTS BLO 2500FT. AFTN RH VALUES ALONG
AND N OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR WILL FALL BLO 35PCT FOR 4-6HRS...BUT ERC
VALUES REMAIN TOO LOW TO TRIGGER CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  68  57  71  57 /   0  10  10  10
MCO  69  54  75  57 /   0   0  10  10
MLB  72  59  75  60 /   0   0  10  10
VRB  73  59  76  58 /   0   0  10  10
LEE  69  53  72  56 /   0  10  10  10
SFB  69  55  74  57 /   0  10  10  10
ORL  69  55  74  58 /   0  10  10  10
FPR  73  59  76  58 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRAGAW
LONG TERM....LASCODY






000
FXUS62 KMLB 190901
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
401 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

...RATHER BENIGN WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND THEN INCREASING CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY WED...

TODAY-TONIGHT...
EVNG RAOBS SHOW A VERY DRY/STABLE AIRMASS ACRS CNTRL/SRN FL...BUT
INCREASING MID/UPR LVL CLOUDS OVER N FL ASSOCD WITH A 110-130KT
H30-H20 JET STREAK EXTENDING FROM THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TO THE MID
ATLC COAST. THIS JET WILL PUSH AN H100-H70 RIDGE FROM THE CENTRAL
GOMEX ACRS THE FL PENINSULA TODAY...THEN E OF THE BAHAMA BANK
OVERNIGHT. SFC WINDS WILL RESPOND BY VEERING FROM N TO NE THRU EARLY
AFTN...TO THE E BY MIDNIGHT...THEN TO THE S/SE BY DAYBREAK.
UPSTREAM...LOW LVL MOISTURE ASSOCD WITH THE RIDGE REMAINS WITH
H100-H70 MEAN RH VALUES BLO 50PCT. MID/UPR LVL MOISTURE A BIT HIGHER
WITH H85-H50 VALUES BTWN 60-80PCT...H40-H20 VALUES ARND
50PCT...MATCHING UP WELL WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED JET.

AS THE JET PASSES OVER THE SE CONUS...MID/UPR LVL CLOUD DECK WILL
STREAM ACRS THE N HALF OF THE PENINSULA WITH SOME HI CLOUDS WORKING
THEIR WAY S OF SR60. THIS SHOULD WORK TO KEEP AFTN MAX TEMPS IN THE
U60S ALONG AND N OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR...WHILE L/M70S WILL BE THE RULE
TO THE S. LOW/MID LVL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AS WELL AS WINDS THRU
THE H100-H70 VEER TO AN ONSHORE COMPONENT. HOWEVER...DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS IN THE H85-H50 LYR ACRS CENTRAL/SRN FL ARE ON THE ORDER
OF 30-35C AND WILL REQUIRE SUBSTANTIAL MODIFICATION BEFORE PRECIP
CAN BE INTRODUCED TO THE FCST.

WEEKEND...
SAT...WEAK LOW LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL PRODUCE A LIGHT ONSHORE
FLOW. ZONAL/UNPERTURBED FLOW ALOFT LOCALLY WILL PROMOTE A CONTINUED
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND KEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHALLOW. HENCE
THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY. MAX TEMPS WILL MODIFY BUT A CONTINUED
STREAM OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT THIS TO ABOUT 3-5 DEGREES...
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S EXCEPT FOR LOWER 70S NORTH AND MAYBE SOME
UPPER 70S AROUND OKEECHOBEE.

SUN/SUN NIGHT...TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GULF IS FORECAST TO
INDUCE A WEAK LOW PRESSURE WAVE IN THE CENTRAL GULF. INITIAL MID
LEVEL DRY LAYER WILL STEADILY MOISTEN AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM BUT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO NOT SHOW EROSION OF THE DRY LAYER UNTIL SUN
NIGHT. SO THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON SUNDAY LOOKS LOW AND HAVE GONE
WITH A MAX OF 30 PERCENT IN THE NORTH BUT KEPT POPS OUT OF THE
FORECAST IN THE SOUTH. MOS POPS JUMP TO OVER 70 PERCENT IN THE
NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND 50 IN THE SOUTH. THIS LOOKS REASONABLE AND
HAVE FOLLOWED CLOSE TO THOSE NUMBERS. DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND LOW
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION SHOULD GENERATE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND
SLIGHT THUNDER CHANCES TOO...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH.

MON THRU NEXT FRI...
MAIN FEATURE WILL BE A TROUGH THAT DIGS OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE
COUNTRY AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...PRODUCING A STRONG COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE AT MID WEEK.

MON...BAND OF HIGH MOISTURE AND WEAK DIVERGENCE ALOFT IS PROGGED
TO LINGER OVER THE AREA. CONSENSUS POPS ARE 30 PERCENT SOUTH AND
50 NORTH AND HAVE FOLLOWED...BUT MAY END UP BEING A BIT HIGHER IN
LATER FORECASTS.

TUE-WED...THE AMPLIFYING TROUGH OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE
COUNTRY WILL GENERATE A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW OVER THE DEEP SOUTH
TUESDAY...WHICH WILL LIFT QUICKLY NORTHEAST THROUGH TUE NIGHT.
THIS WILL INCREASE LOW LEVEL WINDS WITH 925-850 MB SPEEDS NEAR 40
KNOTS INDICATED. THE ECMWF IS EVEN A LITTLE STRONGER. THEREFORE
EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR STRONG STORMS AS A PRE FRONTAL BAND OF
CONVECTION MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. RIGHT NOW THE GREATEST CHANCE
FOR HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG STORMS IS FAVORING TUE NIGHT. SOME
CONVECTION MAY LINGER INTO WED THEN COOL/DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL
SWEEP IN WITH A BREEZY DAY INDICATED.

CHRISTMAS-FRI...IT WILL START OFF COOL ON CHRISTMAS WITH LOWS
MOSTLY IN THE 40S. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL PROVIDE A SUNNY
DAY AND HIGH TEMPS A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL. THE RIDGE WILL PUSH
OFFSHORE FRI AND TEMPS SHOULD MODIFY TO NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
WITH CONTINUED DRY WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...
SFC WINDS: THRU 19/15Z...VRBL AOB 3KTS. BTWN 19/15Z-19/18Z...N/NE
ARND 5KTS. AFT 19/18Z...E/NE BTWN 5-8KTS.

VSBYS/CIGS: THRU 20/00Z...VFR ALL SITES...PREVAILING CIGS AOA FL120
N OF KMLB-KISM.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY-TONIGHT...A HI PRES RIDGE OVER THE GOMEX WILL WEAKEN AS IT
DRIFTS ACRS CENTRAL FL TODAY...THE E OF THE BAHAMA BANK OVERNIGHT.
AS IT DOES...THE PREVAILING LIGHT TO GENTLE NRLY BREEZE WILL VEER TO
THE NE BY EARLY AFTN...TO THE E BY MIDNIGHT...THEN TO THE S/SE THRU
DAYBREAK. FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE WITH SUSTAINED
WIND SPEEDS AOB 10KTS...SEAS GENERALLY AOB 2FT...UP TO 3FT IN THE
GULF STREAM.

WEEKEND...A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL RESULT IN WINDS 5 TO 10
KNOTS SAT...MAINLY FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST. A SLIGHT INCREASE
IN SOUTHEAST WINDS TO NEAR 10 KNOTS IS INDICTED ON SUNDAY. THOUGH
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY...THERE
WILL BE NO RAIN CHANCES UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

MON-TUE...HIGH SHOWER CHANCES WITH ISOLATED STORMS ARE FORECAST
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MAY LINGER INTO MON. WINDS WILL BE VEERING TO THE
SOUTH AND SHOULD START TO INCREASE AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT
ESPECIALLY LATE ON TUE. WITH HIGH MOISTURE CONTINUING TUE...THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR STORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TODAY...LIGHT NRLY SFC/TRANSPORT WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NE BY
EARLY AFTN AS A WEAK HI PRES RIDGE PUSHES ACRS THE FL PENINSULA.
POOR TO FAIR DISPERSION WILL CONTINUE AS A STRONG SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION KEEPS MIXING HEIGHTS BLO 2500FT. AFTN RH VALUES ALONG
AND N OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR WILL FALL BLO 35PCT FOR 4-6HRS...BUT ERC
VALUES REMAIN TOO LOW TO TRIGGER CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  68  57  71  57 /   0  10  10  10
MCO  69  54  75  57 /   0   0  10  10
MLB  72  59  75  60 /   0   0  10  10
VRB  73  59  76  58 /   0   0  10  10
LEE  69  53  72  56 /   0  10  10  10
SFB  69  55  74  57 /   0  10  10  10
ORL  69  55  74  58 /   0  10  10  10
FPR  73  59  76  58 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRAGAW
LONG TERM....LASCODY





000
FXUS62 KMLB 190025
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
725 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT-OVERNIGHT...INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY LOOP SHOWING JET
STREAM CIRRUS/CIRROSTRATUS STREAMING WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND FLORIDA. THE SKY CONDITIONS WILL VARY BETWEEN PARTLY
CLOUDY TO CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AS THE CIRRUS/CIRROSTRATUS THINS
THEN THICKENS AGAIN THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE LOWEST LAYERS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE DECOUPLE. LIGHT NORTHWEST TO WEST DRAINAGE WIND FLOW
TOWARD SUNRISE. TEMPERATURES LOOK REASONABLE.

UPDATING THE ZONES TO BRING WEATHER ELEMENT TRENDS CURRENT.


PREVIOUS ZONES DISCUSSION
CURRENT-TONIGHT...MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS OVER EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA
THIS AFTERNOON WITH OCCASIONAL/FEW TO SCATTERED MID-HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
SHALLOW/LOCALIZED PATCHY GROUND FOG IN PRONE LOCATIONS LATE
OVERNIGHT BUT DO NOT THINK IT WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD AND WILL LEAVE
MENTION ABSENT FROM THE GRIDS/ZONES. OVERNIGHT LOWS AGAIN IN THE 40S
AREAWIDE. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO CALM IN THE EVENING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT.

FRI...THE FLAT MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE
REGION WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
HANG ON FOR ONE MORE DAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE NORTHEAST TEXAS/LOUISIANA COAST ON THIS DAY. WINDS
WILL RESPOND BY VEERING TO NORTHEAST OR EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
WITH SPEEDS LESS THAN 10 MPH THANKS TO A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT.
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS FORECAST WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL
AFTER A COOL START TO THE MORNING.

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT...ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS ALOFT WHILE A WEAK
SHORTWAVE PASSES NORTH OF THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY. MOISTURE BEGINS
TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY SATURDAY NIGHT AND WEAK CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH STATIONARY BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH MAY PROMOTE ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS NORTHERN CWA LATE.

SUNDAY-CHRISTMAS EVE DAY...AN UNSETTLED PATTERN IN STORE THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A BROAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
STATES WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS THE NATION. EXTENDED MODEL SOLUTIONS
INDICATE THAT A 160KT H30-H20 JET STREAK OVER THE PACIFIC WILL PUSH
INTO THE PACIFIC NW AND FEED ITS ENERGY DOWN STREAM TO THE LIFTING
JET OVER THE SE CONUS. HOWEVER...BOTH GFS/ECMWF MODELS MAINTAIN A
LIFTING ORIENTATION WITH THE SOUTHERN JET WHILE HOLDING THE RIDGE
OVER THE SW ATLANTIC FIRMLY IN PLACE. BOTH OF THESE FEATURES WILL
PREVENT THE FRONT FROM MAKING A CLEAN/RAPID PASS THROUGH CENTRAL
FL...RESULTING IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION AS DEEP
MOISTURE POOLS WITHIN THE FRONTAL TROUGH.

INTERACTION BETWEEN THE ATLANTIC RIDGE AND THE STALLED FRONTAL
TROUGH WILL GENERATE A DEEP SW FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN...RESULTING
IN STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT THAT USUALLY GENERATES MORE STRATIFORM
THAN CONVECTIVE RAIN. HOWEVER...AS THE FRONTAL TROUGH DRIFTS INTO
THE CENTRAL PENINSULA...IT WILL ERODE THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE
ATLANTIC RIDGE AND BREAK UP THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION THAT
CURRENTLY DOMINATES THE H100-H70 LYR ACRS CENTRAL/NORTH FL. THE
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES WILL COMBINE WITH H50 TEMPERATURES BETWEEN
-10C/-12C THAT COULD TRIGGER ISOLATED LIGHTNING STORMS.

WILL KEEP POPS MENTIONED THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT AOB 50 PCT. A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF S/SWRLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES ABOVE AVERAGE...THOUGH CLOUDS AND RAIN COOLED AIR WILL
HELP OFFSET THIS EFFECT DURING THE DAYTIME. AFTERNOON MAXES IN THE
L/M70S N OF I-4...M/U70S TO THE SOUTH. MIN TEMPS U50S/L6S0 INTERIOR
AND L/M60S ALONG THE COAST.

AT THIS TIME...CONSENSUS MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST AXIS OF LONG-WAVE
TROUGH CROSSES CWA BETWEEN MID DAY AND SUNSET CHRISTMAS EVE DAY.
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE CWA AND BRING AN END
TO THE PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY. ONSET OF GUSTY NW
WINDS...CAUSING ADVECTION OF DRIER/COOLER AIR BY LATE DAY/SUNSET.

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED TO BROKEN AOA FL120. VFR. SHALLOW PATCHY
GROUND FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS A FEW OF THE TERMINALS BEFORE SUNRISE BUT
NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. REVIEW OF THE
1AM/06Z TO 7AM/12Z WEATHER ROUNDUPS DID NOT INDICATE SHALLOW GROUND
FOG AT ANY OF THE REPORTING SITES. THERE MAY HAVE BEEN SOME MESONET
SITES THAT EXPERIENCE SHALLOW GROUND FOG.

&&

.MARINE...



CURRENT-OVERNIGHT...THE NOAA BUOYS WERE RECORDING NORTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS AND 2 FOOT LONG PERIOD SEAS. THE TWO SCRIPPS BUOYS
JUST OFF PORT CANAVERAL AND FORT PIERCE INLET WERE RECORDING 1 TO 2
FOOT LONG PERIOD SEAS. THE CMAN REPORTING SITES AT TRIDENT PIER IN
PORT CANAVERAL AND AT SEBASTIAN INLET WERE RECORDING LIGHT ONSHORE
WINDS. THESE WINDS SHOULD SHIFT BACK TO THE WEST AS ANY LOCAL MESO
SCALE CIRCULATIONS DIMINISH AND SYNOPTIC SCALE WINDFLOW RE
ESTABLISHES ITSELF.

THE EVENING MARINE UPDATE LOOKS AT MARINE WEATHER/SEAS TREND WORDING
CHANGES.

PREVIOUS MARINE DISCUSSION
TODAY/FRI...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. FAVORABLE
BOATING CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT. LIGHT NW FLOW WITH WIND SPEEDS
MAINLY 5-10 KTS. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO VEER TO THE N/NNE/NE LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON ON FRI. SEAS GENERALLY AOB 2FT...POTENTIALLY UP TO 3FT
IN THE GULF STREAM.

FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN GULF
TO THE GREAT LAKES WILL WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS TOWARD THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. AS IT DOES...THE PREVAILING LIGHT FLOW WILL BECOME
EASTERLY BY MIDNIGHT...THEN S/SE BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. FAVORABLE
BOATING CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE WITH SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS AOB 10
KT...SEAS GENERALLY AOB 2 FT...UP TO 3 FT IN THE GULF STREAM.

SATURDAY-TUESDAY...A WEAK H100-H70 SHORTWAVE WILL PINCH OFF OF THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND PUSH ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH SATURDAY...DRAGGING A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO THE FL PANHANDLE
WHERE IT IS EXPECTED TO STALL BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A PERSISTENT LIGHT TO GENTLE SOUTHERLY BREEZE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...BECOMING S/SW GENTLE TO MODERATE MONDAY AS A REINFORCING
TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE GULF AND NUDGES THE FRONT INTO THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PENINSULA EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEAS AOB 2 FT NEARSHORE
AND 2-4 FT OFFSHORE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON/FRIDAY...MINIMUM RH VALUES
DROPPING INTO THE 30S ONCE AGAIN ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA.
WINDS AND ERC VALUES REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS...ALTHOUGH
LIGHT WINDS WILL LIMIT DISPERSION TO POOR-FAIR THRU FRI.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  46  69  54  74 /   0   0  10  10
MCO  47  72  54  76 /   0   0  10  10
MLB  45  72  56  75 /   0   0  10  10
VRB  45  73  55  76 /   0   0  10  10
LEE  46  69  53  74 /   0   0  10  10
SFB  47  72  55  75 /   0   0  10  10
ORL  50  71  56  75 /   0   0  10  10
FPR  46  72  53  75 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

VOLKMER/WIMMER






000
FXUS62 KMLB 190025
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
725 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT-OVERNIGHT...INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY LOOP SHOWING JET
STREAM CIRRUS/CIRROSTRATUS STREAMING WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND FLORIDA. THE SKY CONDITIONS WILL VARY BETWEEN PARTLY
CLOUDY TO CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AS THE CIRRUS/CIRROSTRATUS THINS
THEN THICKENS AGAIN THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE LOWEST LAYERS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE DECOUPLE. LIGHT NORTHWEST TO WEST DRAINAGE WIND FLOW
TOWARD SUNRISE. TEMPERATURES LOOK REASONABLE.

UPDATING THE ZONES TO BRING WEATHER ELEMENT TRENDS CURRENT.


PREVIOUS ZONES DISCUSSION
CURRENT-TONIGHT...MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS OVER EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA
THIS AFTERNOON WITH OCCASIONAL/FEW TO SCATTERED MID-HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
SHALLOW/LOCALIZED PATCHY GROUND FOG IN PRONE LOCATIONS LATE
OVERNIGHT BUT DO NOT THINK IT WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD AND WILL LEAVE
MENTION ABSENT FROM THE GRIDS/ZONES. OVERNIGHT LOWS AGAIN IN THE 40S
AREAWIDE. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO CALM IN THE EVENING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT.

FRI...THE FLAT MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE
REGION WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
HANG ON FOR ONE MORE DAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE NORTHEAST TEXAS/LOUISIANA COAST ON THIS DAY. WINDS
WILL RESPOND BY VEERING TO NORTHEAST OR EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
WITH SPEEDS LESS THAN 10 MPH THANKS TO A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT.
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS FORECAST WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL
AFTER A COOL START TO THE MORNING.

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT...ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS ALOFT WHILE A WEAK
SHORTWAVE PASSES NORTH OF THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY. MOISTURE BEGINS
TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY SATURDAY NIGHT AND WEAK CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH STATIONARY BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH MAY PROMOTE ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS NORTHERN CWA LATE.

SUNDAY-CHRISTMAS EVE DAY...AN UNSETTLED PATTERN IN STORE THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A BROAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
STATES WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS THE NATION. EXTENDED MODEL SOLUTIONS
INDICATE THAT A 160KT H30-H20 JET STREAK OVER THE PACIFIC WILL PUSH
INTO THE PACIFIC NW AND FEED ITS ENERGY DOWN STREAM TO THE LIFTING
JET OVER THE SE CONUS. HOWEVER...BOTH GFS/ECMWF MODELS MAINTAIN A
LIFTING ORIENTATION WITH THE SOUTHERN JET WHILE HOLDING THE RIDGE
OVER THE SW ATLANTIC FIRMLY IN PLACE. BOTH OF THESE FEATURES WILL
PREVENT THE FRONT FROM MAKING A CLEAN/RAPID PASS THROUGH CENTRAL
FL...RESULTING IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION AS DEEP
MOISTURE POOLS WITHIN THE FRONTAL TROUGH.

INTERACTION BETWEEN THE ATLANTIC RIDGE AND THE STALLED FRONTAL
TROUGH WILL GENERATE A DEEP SW FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN...RESULTING
IN STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT THAT USUALLY GENERATES MORE STRATIFORM
THAN CONVECTIVE RAIN. HOWEVER...AS THE FRONTAL TROUGH DRIFTS INTO
THE CENTRAL PENINSULA...IT WILL ERODE THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE
ATLANTIC RIDGE AND BREAK UP THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION THAT
CURRENTLY DOMINATES THE H100-H70 LYR ACRS CENTRAL/NORTH FL. THE
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES WILL COMBINE WITH H50 TEMPERATURES BETWEEN
-10C/-12C THAT COULD TRIGGER ISOLATED LIGHTNING STORMS.

WILL KEEP POPS MENTIONED THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT AOB 50 PCT. A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF S/SWRLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES ABOVE AVERAGE...THOUGH CLOUDS AND RAIN COOLED AIR WILL
HELP OFFSET THIS EFFECT DURING THE DAYTIME. AFTERNOON MAXES IN THE
L/M70S N OF I-4...M/U70S TO THE SOUTH. MIN TEMPS U50S/L6S0 INTERIOR
AND L/M60S ALONG THE COAST.

AT THIS TIME...CONSENSUS MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST AXIS OF LONG-WAVE
TROUGH CROSSES CWA BETWEEN MID DAY AND SUNSET CHRISTMAS EVE DAY.
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE CWA AND BRING AN END
TO THE PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY. ONSET OF GUSTY NW
WINDS...CAUSING ADVECTION OF DRIER/COOLER AIR BY LATE DAY/SUNSET.

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED TO BROKEN AOA FL120. VFR. SHALLOW PATCHY
GROUND FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS A FEW OF THE TERMINALS BEFORE SUNRISE BUT
NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. REVIEW OF THE
1AM/06Z TO 7AM/12Z WEATHER ROUNDUPS DID NOT INDICATE SHALLOW GROUND
FOG AT ANY OF THE REPORTING SITES. THERE MAY HAVE BEEN SOME MESONET
SITES THAT EXPERIENCE SHALLOW GROUND FOG.

&&

.MARINE...



CURRENT-OVERNIGHT...THE NOAA BUOYS WERE RECORDING NORTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS AND 2 FOOT LONG PERIOD SEAS. THE TWO SCRIPPS BUOYS
JUST OFF PORT CANAVERAL AND FORT PIERCE INLET WERE RECORDING 1 TO 2
FOOT LONG PERIOD SEAS. THE CMAN REPORTING SITES AT TRIDENT PIER IN
PORT CANAVERAL AND AT SEBASTIAN INLET WERE RECORDING LIGHT ONSHORE
WINDS. THESE WINDS SHOULD SHIFT BACK TO THE WEST AS ANY LOCAL MESO
SCALE CIRCULATIONS DIMINISH AND SYNOPTIC SCALE WINDFLOW RE
ESTABLISHES ITSELF.

THE EVENING MARINE UPDATE LOOKS AT MARINE WEATHER/SEAS TREND WORDING
CHANGES.

PREVIOUS MARINE DISCUSSION
TODAY/FRI...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. FAVORABLE
BOATING CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT. LIGHT NW FLOW WITH WIND SPEEDS
MAINLY 5-10 KTS. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO VEER TO THE N/NNE/NE LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON ON FRI. SEAS GENERALLY AOB 2FT...POTENTIALLY UP TO 3FT
IN THE GULF STREAM.

FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN GULF
TO THE GREAT LAKES WILL WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS TOWARD THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. AS IT DOES...THE PREVAILING LIGHT FLOW WILL BECOME
EASTERLY BY MIDNIGHT...THEN S/SE BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. FAVORABLE
BOATING CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE WITH SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS AOB 10
KT...SEAS GENERALLY AOB 2 FT...UP TO 3 FT IN THE GULF STREAM.

SATURDAY-TUESDAY...A WEAK H100-H70 SHORTWAVE WILL PINCH OFF OF THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND PUSH ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH SATURDAY...DRAGGING A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO THE FL PANHANDLE
WHERE IT IS EXPECTED TO STALL BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A PERSISTENT LIGHT TO GENTLE SOUTHERLY BREEZE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...BECOMING S/SW GENTLE TO MODERATE MONDAY AS A REINFORCING
TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE GULF AND NUDGES THE FRONT INTO THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PENINSULA EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEAS AOB 2 FT NEARSHORE
AND 2-4 FT OFFSHORE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON/FRIDAY...MINIMUM RH VALUES
DROPPING INTO THE 30S ONCE AGAIN ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA.
WINDS AND ERC VALUES REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS...ALTHOUGH
LIGHT WINDS WILL LIMIT DISPERSION TO POOR-FAIR THRU FRI.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  46  69  54  74 /   0   0  10  10
MCO  47  72  54  76 /   0   0  10  10
MLB  45  72  56  75 /   0   0  10  10
VRB  45  73  55  76 /   0   0  10  10
LEE  46  69  53  74 /   0   0  10  10
SFB  47  72  55  75 /   0   0  10  10
ORL  50  71  56  75 /   0   0  10  10
FPR  46  72  53  75 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

VOLKMER/WIMMER







000
FXUS62 KMLB 181953
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
252 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT-TONIGHT...MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS OVER EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA
THIS AFTERNOON WITH OCCASIONAL/FEW TO SCATTERED MID-HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
SHALLOW/LOCALIZED PATCHY GROUND FOG IN PRONE LOCATIONS LATE
OVERNIGHT BUT DO NOT THINK IT WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD AND WILL LEAVE
MENTION ABSENT FROM THE GRIDS/ZONES. OVERNIGHT LOWS AGAIN IN THE 40S
AREAWIDE. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO CALM IN THE EVENING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT.

FRI...THE FLAT MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE
REGION WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
HANG ON FOR ONE MORE DAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE NORTHEAST TEXAS/LOUISIANA COAST ON THIS DAY. WINDS
WILL RESPOND BY VEERING TO NORTHEAST OR EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
WITH SPEEDS LESS THAN 10 MPH THANKS TO A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT.
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS FORECAST WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL
AFTER A COOL START TO THE MORNING.

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT...ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS ALOFT WHILE A WEAK
SHORTWAVE PASSES NORTH OF THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY. MOISTURE BEGINS
TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY SATURDAY NIGHT AND WEAK CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH STATIONARY BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH MAY PROMOTE ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS NORTHERN CWA LATE.

SUNDAY-CHRISTMAS EVE DAY...AN UNSETTLED PATTERN IN STORE THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A BROAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
STATES WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS THE NATION. EXTENDED MODEL SOLUTIONS
INDICATE THAT A 160KT H30-H20 JET STREAK OVER THE PACIFIC WILL PUSH
INTO THE PACIFIC NW AND FEED ITS ENERGY DOWN STREAM TO THE LIFTING
JET OVER THE SE CONUS. HOWEVER...BOTH GFS/ECMWF MODELS MAINTAIN A
LIFTING ORIENTATION WITH THE SOUTHERN JET WHILE HOLDING THE RIDGE
OVER THE SW ATLANTIC FIRMLY IN PLACE. BOTH OF THESE FEATURES WILL
PREVENT THE FRONT FROM MAKING A CLEAN/RAPID PASS THROUGH CENTRAL
FL...RESULTING IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION AS DEEP
MOISTURE POOLS WITHIN THE FRONTAL TROUGH.

INTERACTION BETWEEN THE ATLANTIC RIDGE AND THE STALLED FRONTAL
TROUGH WILL GENERATE A DEEP SW FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN...RESULTING
IN STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT THAT USUALLY GENERATES MORE STRATIFORM
THAN CONVECTIVE RAIN. HOWEVER...AS THE FRONTAL TROUGH DRIFTS INTO
THE CENTRAL PENINSULA...IT WILL ERODE THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE
ATLANTIC RIDGE AND BREAK UP THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION THAT
CURRENTLY DOMINATES THE H100-H70 LYR ACRS CENTRAL/NORTH FL. THE
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES WILL COMBINE WITH H50 TEMPERATURES BETWEEN
-10C/-12C THAT COULD TRIGGER ISOLATED LIGHTNING STORMS.

WILL KEEP POPS MENTIONED THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT AOB 50 PCT. A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF S/SWRLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES ABOVE AVERAGE...THOUGH CLOUDS AND RAIN COOLED AIR WILL
HELP OFFSET THIS EFFECT DURING THE DAYTIME. AFTERNOON MAXES IN THE
L/M70S N OF I-4...M/U70S TO THE SOUTH. MIN TEMPS U50S/L6S0 INTERIOR
AND L/M60S ALONG THE COAST.

AT THIS TIME...CONSENSUS MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST AXIS OF LONG-WAVE
TROUGH CROSSES CWA BETWEEN MID DAY AND SUNSET CHRISTMAS EVE DAY.
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE CWA AND BRING AN END
TO THE PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY. ONSET OF GUSTY NW
WINDS...CAUSING ADVECTION OF DRIER/COOLER AIR BY LATE DAY/SUNSET.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. OCCASIONAL
MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. SHALLOW PATCHY GROUND FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS
A FEW OF THE TERMINALS BEFORE SUNRISE BUT WILL NOT INCLUDE IN TAFS
AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...TODAY/FRI...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. FAVORABLE
BOATING CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT. LIGHT NW FLOW WITH WIND SPEEDS
MAINLY 5-10 KTS. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO VEER TO THE N/NNE/NE LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON ON FRI. SEAS GENERALLY AOB 2FT...POTENTIALLY UP TO 3FT
IN THE GULF STREAM.

FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN GULF
TO THE GREAT LAKES WILL WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS TOWARD THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. AS IT DOES...THE PREVAILING LIGHT FLOW WILL BECOME
EASTERLY BY MIDNIGHT...THEN S/SE BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. FAVORABLE
BOATING CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE WITH SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS AOB 10
KT...SEAS GENERALLY AOB 2 FT...UP TO 3 FT IN THE GULF STREAM.

SATURDAY-TUESDAY...A WEAK H100-H70 SHORTWAVE WILL PINCH OFF OF THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND PUSH ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH SATURDAY...DRAGGING A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO THE FL PANHANDLE
WHERE IT IS EXPECTED TO STALL BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A PERSISTENT LIGHT TO GENTLE SOUTHERLY BREEZE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...BECOMING S/SW GENTLE TO MODERATE MONDAY AS A REINFORCING
TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE GULF AND NUDGES THE FRONT INTO THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PENINSULA EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEAS AOB 2 FT NEARSHORE
AND 2-4 FT OFFSHORE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON/FRIDAY...MINIMUM RH VALUES
DROPPING INTO THE 30S ONCE AGAIN ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA.
WINDS AND ERC VALUES REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS...ALTHOUGH
LIGHT WINDS WILL LIMIT DISPERSION TO POOR-FAIR THRU FRI.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  46  69  54  74 /   0   0  10  10
MCO  47  72  54  76 /   0   0  10  10
MLB  45  72  56  75 /   0   0  10  10
VRB  45  73  55  76 /   0   0  10  10
LEE  46  69  53  74 /   0   0  10  10
SFB  47  72  55  75 /   0   0  10  10
ORL  50  71  56  75 /   0   0  10  10
FPR  46  72  53  75 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...SEDLOCK
IMPACT WEATHER/LONG TERM...SPRATT







000
FXUS62 KMLB 181409
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
909 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT...SOME MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE AREA WITH WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCING OUR WEATHER. EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES IN
THE 40S ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70
DEGREES ALONG THE I-4 CORRIDOR WITH LOWER 70S EXPECTED FURTHER
SOUTHWARD. OVERNIGHT LOWS AGAIN IN THE 40S AREAWIDE. CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. FEW MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.

&&

.MARINE...TODAY/TONIGHT...FINE BOATING CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT
WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. GENTLE NW BREEZE AOB 10 KTS.
SEAS 1 FT NEAR SHORE AND 2 FT OFFSHORE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...TODAY...MINIMUM RH VALUES DROPPING INTO THE 30S ONCE
AGAIN ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA. WINDS AND ERC VALUES REMAIN
BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS...ALTHOUGH LIGHT WINDS WILL LIMIT
DISPERSION TO POOR-FAIR.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

SEDLOCK/SPRATT







000
FXUS62 KMLB 181409
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
909 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT...SOME MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE AREA WITH WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCING OUR WEATHER. EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES IN
THE 40S ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70
DEGREES ALONG THE I-4 CORRIDOR WITH LOWER 70S EXPECTED FURTHER
SOUTHWARD. OVERNIGHT LOWS AGAIN IN THE 40S AREAWIDE. CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. FEW MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.

&&

.MARINE...TODAY/TONIGHT...FINE BOATING CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT
WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. GENTLE NW BREEZE AOB 10 KTS.
SEAS 1 FT NEAR SHORE AND 2 FT OFFSHORE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...TODAY...MINIMUM RH VALUES DROPPING INTO THE 30S ONCE
AGAIN ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA. WINDS AND ERC VALUES REMAIN
BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS...ALTHOUGH LIGHT WINDS WILL LIMIT
DISPERSION TO POOR-FAIR.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

SEDLOCK/SPRATT






000
FXUS62 KMLB 181409
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
909 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT...SOME MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE AREA WITH WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCING OUR WEATHER. EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES IN
THE 40S ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70
DEGREES ALONG THE I-4 CORRIDOR WITH LOWER 70S EXPECTED FURTHER
SOUTHWARD. OVERNIGHT LOWS AGAIN IN THE 40S AREAWIDE. CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. FEW MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.

&&

.MARINE...TODAY/TONIGHT...FINE BOATING CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT
WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. GENTLE NW BREEZE AOB 10 KTS.
SEAS 1 FT NEAR SHORE AND 2 FT OFFSHORE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...TODAY...MINIMUM RH VALUES DROPPING INTO THE 30S ONCE
AGAIN ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA. WINDS AND ERC VALUES REMAIN
BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS...ALTHOUGH LIGHT WINDS WILL LIMIT
DISPERSION TO POOR-FAIR.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

SEDLOCK/SPRATT






000
FXUS62 KMLB 181409
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
909 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT...SOME MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE AREA WITH WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCING OUR WEATHER. EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES IN
THE 40S ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70
DEGREES ALONG THE I-4 CORRIDOR WITH LOWER 70S EXPECTED FURTHER
SOUTHWARD. OVERNIGHT LOWS AGAIN IN THE 40S AREAWIDE. CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. FEW MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.

&&

.MARINE...TODAY/TONIGHT...FINE BOATING CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT
WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. GENTLE NW BREEZE AOB 10 KTS.
SEAS 1 FT NEAR SHORE AND 2 FT OFFSHORE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...TODAY...MINIMUM RH VALUES DROPPING INTO THE 30S ONCE
AGAIN ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA. WINDS AND ERC VALUES REMAIN
BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS...ALTHOUGH LIGHT WINDS WILL LIMIT
DISPERSION TO POOR-FAIR.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

SEDLOCK/SPRATT







000
FXUS62 KMLB 180938 AAA
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
438 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT...
SKIES HEAVE CLEARED OUT...AT LEAST BRIEFLY...AS THE FIRST SWATH OF
HIGH CLOUDS HAS PASSED WELL E-SE OF CENTRAL FL. THIS HAS ALLOWED
TEMPS TO FALL OFF A BIT MORE...AND AS A RESULT SOME SHALLOW MIST HAS
FORMED ACROSS WESTERN FL. MORE CI/CS IS POISED TO MOVE BACK OVHD
BEFORE SUNRISE...THOUGH IR IMAGERY INDICATES THIS SHOULD REMAIN
THIN. GIVEN CURRENT T/TD SPREADS OF 2-4F DO NOT EXPECT ANYTHING MORE
THAN LOCALIZED SHALLOW MIST/GROUND FOG TO FORM.

TODAY/TONIGHT...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL DAY WITH
MAXES A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW CLIMO...OWING IN PART TO HIGH CLOUDS
DIMMING THE SUN AS THEY STREAM OVHD. MAXES IN THE U60S TO L70S WITH
MINS IN THE 40S.

FRI-SAT...
A 100-110KT H30-H20 JET STREAK EXTENDING FROM THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
TO THE MID ATLC COAST WILL PUSH AN H100-H70 RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
GOMEX EWD ACRS THE BAHAMA BANK WHILE PULLING A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROF
FROM THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. MOISTURE ASSOCD WITH THE
RIDGE REMAINS LOW E OF THE MS RIVER WITH H100-H70 MEAN RH VALUES BLO
50PCT...H85-H50 VALUES BLO 30PCT.

MUCH DEEPER MOISTURE NOTED W OF THE MS RIVER WITH BOTH H100-H70 RH
VALUES AS HIGH AS 90PCT OVER THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS...H85-H50 VALUES
AOA 70PCT. NOTEWORTHY H85-H50 VORT MAXES WORKING THEIR WAY INTO THE
SRN PLAINS AS WELL. HOWEVER... THESE WX FEATURES ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE STRONG AND DEEP ZONAL FLOW PATTERN OVER THE SRN TIER STATES THAT
WILL CARRY THEIR BULK ACRS THE DEEP SOUTH RATHER THAN INTO THE
GOMEX. INDEED...THE 18/00Z GFS HAS BACKED OFF FROM EARLIER SOLUTIONS
OF DLVPG A CLOSED LOW ALONG THE FRONTAL BNDRY...INSTEAD NOW
INDICATING A WEAK OPEN WAVE AS THE PRIMARY DRIVING FEATURE FOR THE
FRONT.

WITH THE CURRENT GOMEX RIDGE EXPECTED TO RELOCATE OVER THE SW ATLC
AND WEAK SWD MOTION ON THE FRONT...THERE WILL BE LITTLE TO KEEP IT
FROM LAYING DOWN AND OVER THE PANHANDLE. PTLY CLOUDY SKIES LIGHT NE
WINDS ON FRI AS THE RIDGE PUSHES TO THE ERN SEABOARD...VEERING TO
THE S/SE ON SAT AS THE FRONT STALLS TO THE NORTH. SEASONABLE MAX
TEMPS FRI DAYTIME MAXES IN THE L/M70S...MIN TEMPS ARND 5F ABV  AS
THE ONSHORE FLOW PUSHES OCEAN MODIFIED AIR ACRS THE STATE. SAT/SAT
NIGHT TEMPS WILL CONTINUE ARND 5F ABV AVG AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE
S/SE. WILL INTRODUCE SLGT CHC POPS INTO THE FCST N OF I-4 SAT
NIGHT...BUT ANY IMPACTS WOULD BE MINOR.

SUN-WED...
AN UNSETTLED WX PATTERN IN STORE THRU THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A
BROAD SHORT WAVE TROF OVER THE MOUNTAIN WEST COAST WORKS ITS WAY
ACRS THE CONUS. EXTENDED MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATE THAT A 160KT
H30-H20 JET STREAK OVER THE PACIFIC WILL PUSH INTO THE PAC NW AND
FEED ITS ENERGY DOWN STREAM TO THE LIFTING JET OVER THE SE CONUS.
HOWEVER... BOTH GFS/ECMWF MODELS MAINTAIN A LIFTING ORIENTATION WITH
THE SRN JET WHILE HOLDING THE RIDGE OVER THE SW ATLC FIRMLY IN
PLACE. BOTH OF THESE WX FEATURES WILL PREVENT THE FRONT FROM MAKING
A CLEAN OR RAPID PASS THRU CENTRAL FL...RESULTING IN AN EXTENDED PD
OF PRECIP AS DEEP MOISTURE POOLS WITHIN THE FRONTAL TROF.

INTERACTION BTWN THE ATLC RIDGE AND THE STALLED FRONTAL TROF WILL
GENERATE A DEEP SW FLOW THRU THE COLUMN...RESULTING IN STRONG
ISENTROPIC LIFT THAT USUALLY GENERATES MORE STRATIFORM THAN
CONVECTIVE RAIN. HOWEVER...AS THE FRONTAL TROF DRIFTS INTO THE
CENTRAL PENINSULA...IT WILL ERODE THE WRN FLANK OF THE ATLC RIDGE
AND BREAK UP THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION THAT CURRENTLY
DOMINATES THE H100-H70 LYR ACRS CENTRAL/NORTH FL. TEH STEEPENING
LAPSE RATES WILL COMBINE WITH H50 TEMPS BTWN -10C/-12C THAT COULD
TRIGGER ISOLD TSRAS.

WILL KEEP PRECIP MENTIONED IN THE FCST THRU THE PD BUT AOB 50PCT. A
PROLONGED PD OF S/SWRLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL KEEP TEMPS ABV
AVG...THOUGH CLOUDS AND RAIN COOLED AIR WILL HELP OFFSET THIS EFFECT
IN THE DAYTIME. AFTN MAXES IN THE L/M70S N OF I-4...M/U70S TO THE S.
MIN TEMPS U50S/L6S0 INTERIOR AND L/M60S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR. COULD SEE A LITTLE PATCHY MIFG 10Z-13Z...BUT WOULD BE TRANSIENT
AND QUITE SHALLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY/TONIGHT...FINE BOATING CONDITIONS WITH A GENTLE NW-N BREEZE
AOB 10KT AND SEAS 1FT NEARSHORE/2FT OFFSHORE

FRI-FRI NIGHT...A HI PRES RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE NRN GOMEX TO THE
GREAT LAKES WILL WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS TOWARD THE ERN SEABOARD. AS IT
DOES...THE PREVAILING LIGHT TO GENTLE NRLY BREEZE WILL VEER TO THE
NE BY THRU THE DAY...TO THE E BY MIDNIGHT...THEN TO THE S/SE THRU
DAYBREAK. FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE WITH SUSTAINED
WIND SPEEDS AOB 10KTS...SEAS GENERALLY AOB 2FT...UP TO 3FT IN THE
GULF STREAM.

SAT-MON...A WEAK H100-H70 SHORTWAVE WILL PINCH OFF OF THE BASE OF
THE TROF OVER THE WRN CONUS AND PUSH ACRS THE DEEP SOUTH ON
SAT...DRAGGING A COOL FRONT INTO THE FL PANHANDLE WHERE IT IS
EXPECTED TO STALL BY LATE SAT NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
PERSISTENT LIGHT TO GENTLE SRLY BREEZE THRU THE WEEKEND...BCMG S/SW
GENTLE TO MODERATE ON MON AS A REINFORCING TROF PUSHES INTO THE
GOMEX REGION AND NUDGES THE FRONT INTO THE NRN PENINSULA. SEAS AOB
2FT NEARSHORE AND 2-3FT OFFSHORE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MINIMUM RH VALUES DROPPING INTO THE 30S ONCE AGAIN
ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA. WINDS AND ERC VALUES REMAIN BELOW
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS...ALTHOUGH LIGHT WINDS WILL LIMIT DISPERSION TO
POOR-FAIR TODAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...LATEST AHPS DATA SHOWS THE GAGE ON THE ST JOHNS RIVER
ABOVE LAKE HARNEY (GENF1) HAS DROPPED TO 6.45FT...BELOW THE ACTION
STAGE OF 6.50FT. DRY WEATHER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL ENSURE A
CONTINUED SLOW FALL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  66  47  69  54 /   0   0  10  10
MCO  70  48  72  53 /   0   0  10   0
MLB  69  47  72  57 /   0   0  10   0
VRB  71  45  72  56 /   0   0  10   0
LEE  67  46  70  52 /   0   0  10  10
SFB  69  48  71  53 /   0   0  10  10
ORL  70  49  71  54 /   0   0  10  10
FPR  70  45  73  57 /   0   0  10   0

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...CRISTALDI
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...BRAGAW








000
FXUS62 KMLB 180855
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
355 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT...
SKIES HEAVE CLEARED OUT...AT LEAST BRIEFLY...AS THE FIRST SWATH OF
HIGH CLOUDS HAS PASSED WELL E-SE OF CENTRAL FL. THIS HAS ALLOWED
TEMPS TO FALL OFF A BIT MORE...AND AS A RESULT SOME SHALLOW MIST HAS
FORMED ACROSS WESTERN FL. MORE CI/CS IS POISED TO MOVE BACK OVHD
BEFORE SUNRISE...THOUGH IR IMAGERY INDICATES THIS SHOULD REMAIN
THIN. GIVEN CURRENT T/TD SPREADS OF 2-4F DO NOT EXPECT ANYTHING MORE
THAN LOCALIZED SHALLOW MIST/GROUND FOG TO FORM.

TODAY/TONIGHT...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL DAY WITH
MAXES A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW CLIMO...OWING IN PART TO HIGH CLOUDS
DIMMING THE SUN AS THEY STREAM OVHD. MAXES IN THE U60S TO L70S WITH
MINS IN THE 40S.

FRI-SAT...
A 100-110KT H30-H20 JET STREAK EXTENDING FROM THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
TO THE MID ATLC COAST WILL PUSH AN H100-H70 RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
GOMEX EWD ACRS THE BAHAMA BANK WHILE PULLING A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROF
FROM THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. MOISTURE ASSOCD WITH THE
RIDGE REMAINS LOW E OF THE MS RIVER WITH H100-H70 MEAN RH VALUES BLO
50PCT...H85-H50 VALUES BLO 30PCT.

MUCH DEEPER MOISTURE NOTED W OF THE MS RIVER WITH BOTH H100-H70 RH
VALUES AS HIGH AS 90PCT OVER THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS...H85-H50 VALUES
AOA 70PCT. NOTEWORTHY H85-H50 VORT MAXES WORKING THEIR WAY INTO THE
SRN PLAINS AS WELL. HOWEVER... THESE WX FEATURES ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE STRONG AND DEEP ZONAL FLOW PATTERN OVER THE SRN TIER STATES THAT
WILL CARRY THEIR BULK ACRS THE DEEP SOUTH RATHER THAN INTO THE
GOMEX. INDEED...THE 18/00Z GFS HAS BACKED OFF FROM EARLIER SOLUTIONS
OF DLVPG A CLOSED LOW ALONG THE FRONTAL BNDRY...INSTEAD NOW
INDICATING A WEAK OPEN WAVE AS THE PRIMARY DRIVING FEATURE FOR THE
FRONT.

WITH THE CURRENT GOMEX RIDGE EXPECTED TO RELOCATE OVER THE SW ATLC
AND WEAK SWD MOTION ON THE FRONT...THERE WILL BE LITTLE TO KEEP IT
FROM LAYING DOWN AND OVER THE PANHADLE. PTLY CLOUDY SKIES LIGHT NE
WINDS ON FRI AS THE RIDGE PUSHES TO THE ERN SEABOARD...VEERING TO
THE S/SE ON SAT AS THE FRONT STALLS TO THE NORTH. SEASONABLE MAX
TEMPS FRI DAYTIME MAXES IN THE L/M70S...MIN TEMPS ARND 5F ABV  AS
THE ONSHORE FLOW PUSHES OCEAN MODIFIED AIR ACRS THE STATE. SAT/SAT
NIGHT TEMPS WILL CONTINUE ARND 5F ABV AVG AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE
S/SE.

SUN-WED...
UPDATE TO FOLLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR. COULD SEE A LITTLE PATCHY MIFG 10Z-13Z...BUT WOULD BE TRANSIENT
AND QUITE SHALLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY/TONIGHT...FINE BOATING CONDITIONS WITH A GENTLE NW-N BREEZE
AOB 10KT AND SEAS 1FT NEARSHORE/2FT OFFSHORE

FRI-FRI NIGHT...A HI PRES RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE NRN GOMEX TO THE
GREAT LAKES WILL WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS TOWARD THE ERN SEABOARD. AS IT
DOES...THE PREVAILING LIGHT TO GENTLE NRLY BREEZE WILL VEER TO THE
NE BY THRU THE DAY...TO THE E BY MIDNIGHT...THEN TO THE S/SE THRU
DAYBREAK. FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE WITH SUSTAINED
WIND SPEEDS AOB 10KTS...SEAS GENERALLY AOB 2FT...UP TO 3FT IN THE
GULF STREAM.

SAT-MON...A WEAK H100-H70 SHORTWAVE WILL PINCH OFF OF THE BASE OF
THE TROF OVER THE WRN CONUS AND PUSH ACRS THE DEEP SOUTH ON
SAT...DRAGGING A COOL FRONT INTO THE FL PANHANDLE WHERE IT IS
EXPECTED TO STALL BY LATE SAT NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
PERSISTENT LIGHT TO GENTLE SRLY BREEZE THRU THE WEEKEND...BCMG S/SW
GENTLE TO MODERAET ON MON AS A REINFORCING TROF PUSHES INTO THE
GOMEX REGION AND NUDGES THE FRONT INTO THE NRN PENINSULA. SEAS AOB
2FT NEARSHORE AND 2-3FT OFFSHORE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MINIMUM RH VALUES DROPPING INTO THE 30S ONCE AGAIN
ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA. WINDS AND ERC VALUES REMAIN BELOW
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS...ALTHOUGH LIGHT WINDS WILL LIMIT DISPERSION TO
POOR-FAIR TODAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...LATEST AHPS DATA SHOWS THE GAGE ON THE ST JOHNS RIVER
ABOVE LAKE HARNEY (GENF1) HAS DROPPED TO 6.45FT...BELOW THE ACTION
STAGE OF 6.50FT. DRY WEATHER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL ENSURE A
CONTINUED SLOW FALL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  66  47  69  54 /   0   0  10  10
MCO  70  48  72  53 /   0   0  10   0
MLB  69  47  72  57 /   0   0  10   0
VRB  71  45  72  56 /   0   0  10   0
LEE  67  46  70  52 /   0   0  10  10
SFB  69  48  71  53 /   0   0  10  10
ORL  70  49  71  54 /   0   0  10  10
FPR  70  45  73  57 /   0   0  10   0

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...CRISTALDI
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...BRAGAW






000
FXUS62 KMLB 180855
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
355 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT...
SKIES HEAVE CLEARED OUT...AT LEAST BRIEFLY...AS THE FIRST SWATH OF
HIGH CLOUDS HAS PASSED WELL E-SE OF CENTRAL FL. THIS HAS ALLOWED
TEMPS TO FALL OFF A BIT MORE...AND AS A RESULT SOME SHALLOW MIST HAS
FORMED ACROSS WESTERN FL. MORE CI/CS IS POISED TO MOVE BACK OVHD
BEFORE SUNRISE...THOUGH IR IMAGERY INDICATES THIS SHOULD REMAIN
THIN. GIVEN CURRENT T/TD SPREADS OF 2-4F DO NOT EXPECT ANYTHING MORE
THAN LOCALIZED SHALLOW MIST/GROUND FOG TO FORM.

TODAY/TONIGHT...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL DAY WITH
MAXES A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW CLIMO...OWING IN PART TO HIGH CLOUDS
DIMMING THE SUN AS THEY STREAM OVHD. MAXES IN THE U60S TO L70S WITH
MINS IN THE 40S.

FRI-SAT...
A 100-110KT H30-H20 JET STREAK EXTENDING FROM THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
TO THE MID ATLC COAST WILL PUSH AN H100-H70 RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
GOMEX EWD ACRS THE BAHAMA BANK WHILE PULLING A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROF
FROM THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. MOISTURE ASSOCD WITH THE
RIDGE REMAINS LOW E OF THE MS RIVER WITH H100-H70 MEAN RH VALUES BLO
50PCT...H85-H50 VALUES BLO 30PCT.

MUCH DEEPER MOISTURE NOTED W OF THE MS RIVER WITH BOTH H100-H70 RH
VALUES AS HIGH AS 90PCT OVER THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS...H85-H50 VALUES
AOA 70PCT. NOTEWORTHY H85-H50 VORT MAXES WORKING THEIR WAY INTO THE
SRN PLAINS AS WELL. HOWEVER... THESE WX FEATURES ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE STRONG AND DEEP ZONAL FLOW PATTERN OVER THE SRN TIER STATES THAT
WILL CARRY THEIR BULK ACRS THE DEEP SOUTH RATHER THAN INTO THE
GOMEX. INDEED...THE 18/00Z GFS HAS BACKED OFF FROM EARLIER SOLUTIONS
OF DLVPG A CLOSED LOW ALONG THE FRONTAL BNDRY...INSTEAD NOW
INDICATING A WEAK OPEN WAVE AS THE PRIMARY DRIVING FEATURE FOR THE
FRONT.

WITH THE CURRENT GOMEX RIDGE EXPECTED TO RELOCATE OVER THE SW ATLC
AND WEAK SWD MOTION ON THE FRONT...THERE WILL BE LITTLE TO KEEP IT
FROM LAYING DOWN AND OVER THE PANHADLE. PTLY CLOUDY SKIES LIGHT NE
WINDS ON FRI AS THE RIDGE PUSHES TO THE ERN SEABOARD...VEERING TO
THE S/SE ON SAT AS THE FRONT STALLS TO THE NORTH. SEASONABLE MAX
TEMPS FRI DAYTIME MAXES IN THE L/M70S...MIN TEMPS ARND 5F ABV  AS
THE ONSHORE FLOW PUSHES OCEAN MODIFIED AIR ACRS THE STATE. SAT/SAT
NIGHT TEMPS WILL CONTINUE ARND 5F ABV AVG AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE
S/SE.

SUN-WED...
UPDATE TO FOLLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR. COULD SEE A LITTLE PATCHY MIFG 10Z-13Z...BUT WOULD BE TRANSIENT
AND QUITE SHALLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY/TONIGHT...FINE BOATING CONDITIONS WITH A GENTLE NW-N BREEZE
AOB 10KT AND SEAS 1FT NEARSHORE/2FT OFFSHORE

FRI-FRI NIGHT...A HI PRES RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE NRN GOMEX TO THE
GREAT LAKES WILL WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS TOWARD THE ERN SEABOARD. AS IT
DOES...THE PREVAILING LIGHT TO GENTLE NRLY BREEZE WILL VEER TO THE
NE BY THRU THE DAY...TO THE E BY MIDNIGHT...THEN TO THE S/SE THRU
DAYBREAK. FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE WITH SUSTAINED
WIND SPEEDS AOB 10KTS...SEAS GENERALLY AOB 2FT...UP TO 3FT IN THE
GULF STREAM.

SAT-MON...A WEAK H100-H70 SHORTWAVE WILL PINCH OFF OF THE BASE OF
THE TROF OVER THE WRN CONUS AND PUSH ACRS THE DEEP SOUTH ON
SAT...DRAGGING A COOL FRONT INTO THE FL PANHANDLE WHERE IT IS
EXPECTED TO STALL BY LATE SAT NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
PERSISTENT LIGHT TO GENTLE SRLY BREEZE THRU THE WEEKEND...BCMG S/SW
GENTLE TO MODERAET ON MON AS A REINFORCING TROF PUSHES INTO THE
GOMEX REGION AND NUDGES THE FRONT INTO THE NRN PENINSULA. SEAS AOB
2FT NEARSHORE AND 2-3FT OFFSHORE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MINIMUM RH VALUES DROPPING INTO THE 30S ONCE AGAIN
ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA. WINDS AND ERC VALUES REMAIN BELOW
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS...ALTHOUGH LIGHT WINDS WILL LIMIT DISPERSION TO
POOR-FAIR TODAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...LATEST AHPS DATA SHOWS THE GAGE ON THE ST JOHNS RIVER
ABOVE LAKE HARNEY (GENF1) HAS DROPPED TO 6.45FT...BELOW THE ACTION
STAGE OF 6.50FT. DRY WEATHER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL ENSURE A
CONTINUED SLOW FALL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  66  47  69  54 /   0   0  10  10
MCO  70  48  72  53 /   0   0  10   0
MLB  69  47  72  57 /   0   0  10   0
VRB  71  45  72  56 /   0   0  10   0
LEE  67  46  70  52 /   0   0  10  10
SFB  69  48  71  53 /   0   0  10  10
ORL  70  49  71  54 /   0   0  10  10
FPR  70  45  73  57 /   0   0  10   0

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...CRISTALDI
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...BRAGAW







000
FXUS62 KMLB 180855
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
355 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT...
SKIES HEAVE CLEARED OUT...AT LEAST BRIEFLY...AS THE FIRST SWATH OF
HIGH CLOUDS HAS PASSED WELL E-SE OF CENTRAL FL. THIS HAS ALLOWED
TEMPS TO FALL OFF A BIT MORE...AND AS A RESULT SOME SHALLOW MIST HAS
FORMED ACROSS WESTERN FL. MORE CI/CS IS POISED TO MOVE BACK OVHD
BEFORE SUNRISE...THOUGH IR IMAGERY INDICATES THIS SHOULD REMAIN
THIN. GIVEN CURRENT T/TD SPREADS OF 2-4F DO NOT EXPECT ANYTHING MORE
THAN LOCALIZED SHALLOW MIST/GROUND FOG TO FORM.

TODAY/TONIGHT...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL DAY WITH
MAXES A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW CLIMO...OWING IN PART TO HIGH CLOUDS
DIMMING THE SUN AS THEY STREAM OVHD. MAXES IN THE U60S TO L70S WITH
MINS IN THE 40S.

FRI-SAT...
A 100-110KT H30-H20 JET STREAK EXTENDING FROM THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
TO THE MID ATLC COAST WILL PUSH AN H100-H70 RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
GOMEX EWD ACRS THE BAHAMA BANK WHILE PULLING A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROF
FROM THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. MOISTURE ASSOCD WITH THE
RIDGE REMAINS LOW E OF THE MS RIVER WITH H100-H70 MEAN RH VALUES BLO
50PCT...H85-H50 VALUES BLO 30PCT.

MUCH DEEPER MOISTURE NOTED W OF THE MS RIVER WITH BOTH H100-H70 RH
VALUES AS HIGH AS 90PCT OVER THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS...H85-H50 VALUES
AOA 70PCT. NOTEWORTHY H85-H50 VORT MAXES WORKING THEIR WAY INTO THE
SRN PLAINS AS WELL. HOWEVER... THESE WX FEATURES ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE STRONG AND DEEP ZONAL FLOW PATTERN OVER THE SRN TIER STATES THAT
WILL CARRY THEIR BULK ACRS THE DEEP SOUTH RATHER THAN INTO THE
GOMEX. INDEED...THE 18/00Z GFS HAS BACKED OFF FROM EARLIER SOLUTIONS
OF DLVPG A CLOSED LOW ALONG THE FRONTAL BNDRY...INSTEAD NOW
INDICATING A WEAK OPEN WAVE AS THE PRIMARY DRIVING FEATURE FOR THE
FRONT.

WITH THE CURRENT GOMEX RIDGE EXPECTED TO RELOCATE OVER THE SW ATLC
AND WEAK SWD MOTION ON THE FRONT...THERE WILL BE LITTLE TO KEEP IT
FROM LAYING DOWN AND OVER THE PANHADLE. PTLY CLOUDY SKIES LIGHT NE
WINDS ON FRI AS THE RIDGE PUSHES TO THE ERN SEABOARD...VEERING TO
THE S/SE ON SAT AS THE FRONT STALLS TO THE NORTH. SEASONABLE MAX
TEMPS FRI DAYTIME MAXES IN THE L/M70S...MIN TEMPS ARND 5F ABV  AS
THE ONSHORE FLOW PUSHES OCEAN MODIFIED AIR ACRS THE STATE. SAT/SAT
NIGHT TEMPS WILL CONTINUE ARND 5F ABV AVG AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE
S/SE.

SUN-WED...
UPDATE TO FOLLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR. COULD SEE A LITTLE PATCHY MIFG 10Z-13Z...BUT WOULD BE TRANSIENT
AND QUITE SHALLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY/TONIGHT...FINE BOATING CONDITIONS WITH A GENTLE NW-N BREEZE
AOB 10KT AND SEAS 1FT NEARSHORE/2FT OFFSHORE

FRI-FRI NIGHT...A HI PRES RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE NRN GOMEX TO THE
GREAT LAKES WILL WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS TOWARD THE ERN SEABOARD. AS IT
DOES...THE PREVAILING LIGHT TO GENTLE NRLY BREEZE WILL VEER TO THE
NE BY THRU THE DAY...TO THE E BY MIDNIGHT...THEN TO THE S/SE THRU
DAYBREAK. FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE WITH SUSTAINED
WIND SPEEDS AOB 10KTS...SEAS GENERALLY AOB 2FT...UP TO 3FT IN THE
GULF STREAM.

SAT-MON...A WEAK H100-H70 SHORTWAVE WILL PINCH OFF OF THE BASE OF
THE TROF OVER THE WRN CONUS AND PUSH ACRS THE DEEP SOUTH ON
SAT...DRAGGING A COOL FRONT INTO THE FL PANHANDLE WHERE IT IS
EXPECTED TO STALL BY LATE SAT NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
PERSISTENT LIGHT TO GENTLE SRLY BREEZE THRU THE WEEKEND...BCMG S/SW
GENTLE TO MODERAET ON MON AS A REINFORCING TROF PUSHES INTO THE
GOMEX REGION AND NUDGES THE FRONT INTO THE NRN PENINSULA. SEAS AOB
2FT NEARSHORE AND 2-3FT OFFSHORE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MINIMUM RH VALUES DROPPING INTO THE 30S ONCE AGAIN
ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA. WINDS AND ERC VALUES REMAIN BELOW
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS...ALTHOUGH LIGHT WINDS WILL LIMIT DISPERSION TO
POOR-FAIR TODAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...LATEST AHPS DATA SHOWS THE GAGE ON THE ST JOHNS RIVER
ABOVE LAKE HARNEY (GENF1) HAS DROPPED TO 6.45FT...BELOW THE ACTION
STAGE OF 6.50FT. DRY WEATHER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL ENSURE A
CONTINUED SLOW FALL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  66  47  69  54 /   0   0  10  10
MCO  70  48  72  53 /   0   0  10   0
MLB  69  47  72  57 /   0   0  10   0
VRB  71  45  72  56 /   0   0  10   0
LEE  67  46  70  52 /   0   0  10  10
SFB  69  48  71  53 /   0   0  10  10
ORL  70  49  71  54 /   0   0  10  10
FPR  70  45  73  57 /   0   0  10   0

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...CRISTALDI
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...BRAGAW







000
FXUS62 KMLB 180215
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
915 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...

...UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK...

CURRENT-OVERNIGHT...IR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING CONSIDERABLE HIGH
CLOUDINESS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO MOVING INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS
EVENING.

AMENDED THE SKY GRIDS TO SHOW INCREASED CLOUDS WITHOUT LEAVING THE
PARTLY CLOUDY WORDING.

PREVIOUS ZONES DISCUSSION
TONIGHT....BOUNDARY HAS WASHED OUT ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES WITH
WEAK FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. LINGERING CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
TREASURE COAST EXPECTED TO THIN AND CLEAR OUT BY THIS EVENING.
WEAK RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT OUT OF THE WEST
AND NORTHWEST.

THURSDAY...WEAK RIDGING AT THE SURFACE WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL
KEEP WINDS LIGHT. EXPECT SOME SEMBLANCE OF A SEA BREEZE TO PUSH
INLAND...ALLOWING A WEAK ONSHORE BREEZE TO DEVELOP ALONG OUR
COASTAL COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES REMAIN SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS NEAR
70 ACROSS THE AREA. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED WITH JUST A FEW
HIGH CLOUDS PASSING OVERHEAD.

THU NIGHT-FRI NIGHT...RATHER FLAT MID LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS FORECAST
WITH ZONAL FLOW DOMINATING THIS PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL LIE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRI BEFORE IT IS SHUNTED
FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST FRI OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING ACROSS EAST TEXAS ON THU/THU NIGHT. THE
SURFACE LOW WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD FRI-FRI NIGHT REACHING THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE BY SUNRISE SAT MORNING. A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL
EXTEND SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE SURFACE LOW. INITIAL LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL VEER EAST ON FRI AND
EVENTUALLY SE/S FRI EVENING/OVERNIGHT. CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL FRI...STARTING TO
WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL FRI NIGHT.

SAT-TUE...PREVIOUS EXTENDED DISCUSSION...SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED WX
PATTERN OVER THE WEEKEND AND CONTG INTO NEXT WEEK AS A SHORT WAVE
TROF OVER THE WEST COAST WORKS ITS WAY ACRS THE SRN TIER STATES. AN
H30-H20 JET STREAK EXTENDING FROM THE BAJA PENINSULA TO THE MID ATLC
COAST WILL PROVIDE THE UPR LVL SUPPORT TO ALLOW THE SHORTWAVE TO
DVLP A CLOSED SFC LOW AS IT PUSHES ACRS THE ARKLATEX. HOWEVER...MAX
WINDS ASSOCD WITH THE JET ARE ONLY 80-100KTS WHILE ITS ORIENTATION
IS EITHER ZONAL OR LIFTING. NEITHER OF THESE FACTORS ARE CONDUCIVE
FOR RAPID OR STRONG STORM DVLPMNT. FURTHERMORE...AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE W ATLC... IT WILL DEFLECT THE
SFC LOW OFF TO THE NE BUILD SIMULTANEOUSLY BLOCKING OUT ITS ASSOCD
COLD FRONT.

THE RESULT WILL BE A FRONT THAT SHOULD STALL OVER CENTRAL FL AS THE
WEAK STORM SYSTEM LIFTS UP THE ERN SEABOARD. DEEP MOISTURE POOLING
WITHIN THE TROF WILL RETURN TO THE STATE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH
THE RIDGE ANCHORED NE OF THE BAHAMA BANK...A DEEP SW FLOW WILL
PREVAIL THRU THE COLUMN THAT WILL GENERATE GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT.
WHILE THIS USUALLY GENERATES A MORE STRATIFORM TYPE OF RAIN
EVENT...H50 TEMPS BTWN -10C/-12C WILL HELP GENERATE SOME FAIRLY
STEEP LAPSE RATES BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND THAT COULD TRIGGER ISOLD
TSRAS.

WILL KEEP SOME MENTION OF PRECIP IN THE FCST THRU THE PD BUT BLO
50PCT. A PROLONGED PD OF S/SWRLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL HELP
KEEP TEMPS ABV AVG...THOUGH CLOUDS AND RAIN COOLED AIR WILL HELP
OFFSET THIS EFFECT. AFTN MAXES GENERALLY IN THE L/M70S N OF
I-4...M/U70S TO THE S. MIN TEMPS M/U50S INTERIOR/VOLUSIA COAST AND
U50S TO M60S ALONG THE SPACE/TREASURE COASTS.

&&

.AVIATION...IR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING BROKEN SKIES AROUND FL250 IN
THE GULF OF MEXICO MOVING INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA BEFORE MIDNIGHT/05Z
LOCAL. NO SIG IMPACT ON TAFS. GROUND STILL MOIST AND WITH LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS SHALLOW GROUND FOG POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...NO MENTION IN THE
TAFS DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...

CURRENT-OVERNIGHT...BUOYS RECORDING NORTHWEST WINDS TO 10 KNOTS AND
1 TO 3 FOOT SEAS OUT TO 120NM.

NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FEATURES TO ALTER ONGOING FORECAST.

THE EVENING UPDATE WILL HAVE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

PREVIOUS MARINE DISCUSSION
TONIGHT/THURSDAY...WEAK RIDGING WILL KEEP A LIGHT TO GENTLE
NORTHWEST BREEZE THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEAS 2 - 3 FEET OVERNIGHT
BECOMING AT OR BELOW 2 FEET THURSDAY.

THU NIGHT...LIGHT NW FLOW WITH WIND SPEEDS MAINLY 5-10 KTS. SEAS AOB
3 FT.

FRI-FRI NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WEAKENS WITH THE APPROACH OF A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FRI OVERNIGHT. NNW/N MORNING WINDS WILL VEER TO
NE/E THRU THE AFTERNOON...THEN SE/S OVERNIGHT. WIND SPEEDS WILL
MAINTAIN AOB 10 KTS DURING THE DAY AND 7-12 KTS FRI NIGHT. SEAS
CONTINUE AOB 3 FT.

SAT-SAT NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE FL PANHANDLE EARLY IN THE
PERIOD WILL WEAKEN AND RACE ENE. AN ASSOCIATED WEAK COOL FRONT WILL
MAKE PROGRESS INTO NORTH FL BY LATE IN THE DAY AND PERHAPS AS FAR AS
N/C FL BY DAYBREAK SUN MORNING. S WINDS NEAR 12 KTS OVER THE OPEN
ATLC WILL VEER SSW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND MORE SW OVERNIGHT. WIND
SPEEDS STILL AVERAGING 7-12 KTS AWAY FROM THE COAST SAT NIGHT. SEAS
AOB 2 FT NEAR SHORE AND TO 2-3 FT SAT AFTN/NIGHT.

SUN-SUN NIGHT...FORECAST STILL HINGES ON EXACTLY HOW FAR SOUTH
DURING THIS PERIOD THE FRONT IS ABLE TO PENETRATE. FIRST GUESS IS
SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PENINSULA. EXPECT SW/WSW WINDS SOUTH OF
THIS BOUNDARY AND PERHAPS A MORE NORTHERLY COMPONENT BEHIND IT. SEAS
STILL AOB 3 FT. WIND SPEEDS STILL 6-12 KTS AT BEST. GREATEST SHOWER
CHANCES NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET AND 20 TO 30 PERCENT FORECAST AT
THE PRESENT TIME FOR SUN AND UP TO 40 PERCENT NORTH OF THE CAPE
SUN NIGHT. NO TSRA CHANCES ENTER THE PICTURE UNTIL EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
PREVIOUS FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION...PERHAPS SOME LOW RH`S THU-FRI
AFTN IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S (INTERIOR)...BUT A BUMP UP IN MOISTURE
IS FORECAST FOR AFTERNOON RHS THIS WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH AN
APPROACHING WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. DISPERSION INDICES LOOK TO
STAY FAIR AT BEST. ONLY VISIBILITY CONCERNS WILL REVOLVE AROUND
EXISTING FIRES OR SMOLDERING BURNS FOR SOME EARLY MORNING (SHALLOW)
PATCHY FOG.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
PREVIOUS HYDROLOGY DISCUSSION...THE SAINT JOHNS RIVER ABOVE LAKE
HARNEY (GENF1) HAS FALLEN TO ACTION STAGE AT 6.50 FT AS OF 2 PM
(6.50FT). PROTRACTED DRY WEATHER WILL ALLOW THE RIVER TO DROP BELOW
ACTION STAGE BY TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  48  67  47  69 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  47  70  48  71 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  49  69  50  72 /   0   0   0   0
VRB  47  71  48  72 /   0   0   0   0
LEE  44  68  47  69 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  47  69  48  71 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  47  69  51  71 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  50  70  47  72 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION/SHORT TERM...ULRICH
IMPACT WX/LONG TERM....SEDLOCK











000
FXUS62 KMLB 180215
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
915 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...

...UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK...

CURRENT-OVERNIGHT...IR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING CONSIDERABLE HIGH
CLOUDINESS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO MOVING INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS
EVENING.

AMENDED THE SKY GRIDS TO SHOW INCREASED CLOUDS WITHOUT LEAVING THE
PARTLY CLOUDY WORDING.

PREVIOUS ZONES DISCUSSION
TONIGHT....BOUNDARY HAS WASHED OUT ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES WITH
WEAK FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. LINGERING CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
TREASURE COAST EXPECTED TO THIN AND CLEAR OUT BY THIS EVENING.
WEAK RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT OUT OF THE WEST
AND NORTHWEST.

THURSDAY...WEAK RIDGING AT THE SURFACE WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL
KEEP WINDS LIGHT. EXPECT SOME SEMBLANCE OF A SEA BREEZE TO PUSH
INLAND...ALLOWING A WEAK ONSHORE BREEZE TO DEVELOP ALONG OUR
COASTAL COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES REMAIN SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS NEAR
70 ACROSS THE AREA. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED WITH JUST A FEW
HIGH CLOUDS PASSING OVERHEAD.

THU NIGHT-FRI NIGHT...RATHER FLAT MID LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS FORECAST
WITH ZONAL FLOW DOMINATING THIS PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL LIE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRI BEFORE IT IS SHUNTED
FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST FRI OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING ACROSS EAST TEXAS ON THU/THU NIGHT. THE
SURFACE LOW WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD FRI-FRI NIGHT REACHING THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE BY SUNRISE SAT MORNING. A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL
EXTEND SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE SURFACE LOW. INITIAL LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL VEER EAST ON FRI AND
EVENTUALLY SE/S FRI EVENING/OVERNIGHT. CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL FRI...STARTING TO
WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL FRI NIGHT.

SAT-TUE...PREVIOUS EXTENDED DISCUSSION...SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED WX
PATTERN OVER THE WEEKEND AND CONTG INTO NEXT WEEK AS A SHORT WAVE
TROF OVER THE WEST COAST WORKS ITS WAY ACRS THE SRN TIER STATES. AN
H30-H20 JET STREAK EXTENDING FROM THE BAJA PENINSULA TO THE MID ATLC
COAST WILL PROVIDE THE UPR LVL SUPPORT TO ALLOW THE SHORTWAVE TO
DVLP A CLOSED SFC LOW AS IT PUSHES ACRS THE ARKLATEX. HOWEVER...MAX
WINDS ASSOCD WITH THE JET ARE ONLY 80-100KTS WHILE ITS ORIENTATION
IS EITHER ZONAL OR LIFTING. NEITHER OF THESE FACTORS ARE CONDUCIVE
FOR RAPID OR STRONG STORM DVLPMNT. FURTHERMORE...AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE W ATLC... IT WILL DEFLECT THE
SFC LOW OFF TO THE NE BUILD SIMULTANEOUSLY BLOCKING OUT ITS ASSOCD
COLD FRONT.

THE RESULT WILL BE A FRONT THAT SHOULD STALL OVER CENTRAL FL AS THE
WEAK STORM SYSTEM LIFTS UP THE ERN SEABOARD. DEEP MOISTURE POOLING
WITHIN THE TROF WILL RETURN TO THE STATE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH
THE RIDGE ANCHORED NE OF THE BAHAMA BANK...A DEEP SW FLOW WILL
PREVAIL THRU THE COLUMN THAT WILL GENERATE GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT.
WHILE THIS USUALLY GENERATES A MORE STRATIFORM TYPE OF RAIN
EVENT...H50 TEMPS BTWN -10C/-12C WILL HELP GENERATE SOME FAIRLY
STEEP LAPSE RATES BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND THAT COULD TRIGGER ISOLD
TSRAS.

WILL KEEP SOME MENTION OF PRECIP IN THE FCST THRU THE PD BUT BLO
50PCT. A PROLONGED PD OF S/SWRLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL HELP
KEEP TEMPS ABV AVG...THOUGH CLOUDS AND RAIN COOLED AIR WILL HELP
OFFSET THIS EFFECT. AFTN MAXES GENERALLY IN THE L/M70S N OF
I-4...M/U70S TO THE S. MIN TEMPS M/U50S INTERIOR/VOLUSIA COAST AND
U50S TO M60S ALONG THE SPACE/TREASURE COASTS.

&&

.AVIATION...IR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING BROKEN SKIES AROUND FL250 IN
THE GULF OF MEXICO MOVING INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA BEFORE MIDNIGHT/05Z
LOCAL. NO SIG IMPACT ON TAFS. GROUND STILL MOIST AND WITH LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS SHALLOW GROUND FOG POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...NO MENTION IN THE
TAFS DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...

CURRENT-OVERNIGHT...BUOYS RECORDING NORTHWEST WINDS TO 10 KNOTS AND
1 TO 3 FOOT SEAS OUT TO 120NM.

NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FEATURES TO ALTER ONGOING FORECAST.

THE EVENING UPDATE WILL HAVE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

PREVIOUS MARINE DISCUSSION
TONIGHT/THURSDAY...WEAK RIDGING WILL KEEP A LIGHT TO GENTLE
NORTHWEST BREEZE THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEAS 2 - 3 FEET OVERNIGHT
BECOMING AT OR BELOW 2 FEET THURSDAY.

THU NIGHT...LIGHT NW FLOW WITH WIND SPEEDS MAINLY 5-10 KTS. SEAS AOB
3 FT.

FRI-FRI NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WEAKENS WITH THE APPROACH OF A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FRI OVERNIGHT. NNW/N MORNING WINDS WILL VEER TO
NE/E THRU THE AFTERNOON...THEN SE/S OVERNIGHT. WIND SPEEDS WILL
MAINTAIN AOB 10 KTS DURING THE DAY AND 7-12 KTS FRI NIGHT. SEAS
CONTINUE AOB 3 FT.

SAT-SAT NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE FL PANHANDLE EARLY IN THE
PERIOD WILL WEAKEN AND RACE ENE. AN ASSOCIATED WEAK COOL FRONT WILL
MAKE PROGRESS INTO NORTH FL BY LATE IN THE DAY AND PERHAPS AS FAR AS
N/C FL BY DAYBREAK SUN MORNING. S WINDS NEAR 12 KTS OVER THE OPEN
ATLC WILL VEER SSW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND MORE SW OVERNIGHT. WIND
SPEEDS STILL AVERAGING 7-12 KTS AWAY FROM THE COAST SAT NIGHT. SEAS
AOB 2 FT NEAR SHORE AND TO 2-3 FT SAT AFTN/NIGHT.

SUN-SUN NIGHT...FORECAST STILL HINGES ON EXACTLY HOW FAR SOUTH
DURING THIS PERIOD THE FRONT IS ABLE TO PENETRATE. FIRST GUESS IS
SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PENINSULA. EXPECT SW/WSW WINDS SOUTH OF
THIS BOUNDARY AND PERHAPS A MORE NORTHERLY COMPONENT BEHIND IT. SEAS
STILL AOB 3 FT. WIND SPEEDS STILL 6-12 KTS AT BEST. GREATEST SHOWER
CHANCES NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET AND 20 TO 30 PERCENT FORECAST AT
THE PRESENT TIME FOR SUN AND UP TO 40 PERCENT NORTH OF THE CAPE
SUN NIGHT. NO TSRA CHANCES ENTER THE PICTURE UNTIL EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
PREVIOUS FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION...PERHAPS SOME LOW RH`S THU-FRI
AFTN IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S (INTERIOR)...BUT A BUMP UP IN MOISTURE
IS FORECAST FOR AFTERNOON RHS THIS WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH AN
APPROACHING WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. DISPERSION INDICES LOOK TO
STAY FAIR AT BEST. ONLY VISIBILITY CONCERNS WILL REVOLVE AROUND
EXISTING FIRES OR SMOLDERING BURNS FOR SOME EARLY MORNING (SHALLOW)
PATCHY FOG.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
PREVIOUS HYDROLOGY DISCUSSION...THE SAINT JOHNS RIVER ABOVE LAKE
HARNEY (GENF1) HAS FALLEN TO ACTION STAGE AT 6.50 FT AS OF 2 PM
(6.50FT). PROTRACTED DRY WEATHER WILL ALLOW THE RIVER TO DROP BELOW
ACTION STAGE BY TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  48  67  47  69 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  47  70  48  71 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  49  69  50  72 /   0   0   0   0
VRB  47  71  48  72 /   0   0   0   0
LEE  44  68  47  69 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  47  69  48  71 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  47  69  51  71 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  50  70  47  72 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION/SHORT TERM...ULRICH
IMPACT WX/LONG TERM....SEDLOCK










000
FXUS62 KMLB 171915
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
215 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...

...UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK...

TONIGHT....BOUNDARY HAS WASHED OUT ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES WITH
WEAK FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. LINGERING CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
TREASURE COAST EXPECTED TO THIN AND CLEAR OUT BY THIS EVENING.
WEAK RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT OUT OF THE WEST
AND NORTHWEST.

THURSDAY...WEAK RIDGING AT THE SURFACE WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL
KEEP WINDS LIGHT. EXPECT SOME SEMBLANCE OF A SEA BREEZE TO PUSH
INLAND...ALLOWING A WEAK ONSHORE BREEZE TO DEVELOP ALONG OUR
COASTAL COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES REMAIN SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS NEAR
70 ACROSS THE AREA. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED WITH JUST A FEW
HIGH CLOUDS PASSING OVERHEAD.

THU NIGHT-FRI NIGHT...RATHER FLAT MID LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS FORECAST
WITH ZONAL FLOW DOMINATING THIS PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL LIE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRI BEFORE IT IS SHUNTED
FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST FRI OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING ACROSS EAST TEXAS ON THU/THU NIGHT. THE
SURFACE LOW WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD FRI-FRI NIGHT REACHING THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE BY SUNRISE SAT MORNING. A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL
EXTEND SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE SURFACE LOW. INITIAL LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL VEER EAST ON FRI AND
EVENTUALLY SE/S FRI EVENING/OVERNIGHT. CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL FRI...STARTING TO
WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL FRI NIGHT.

SAT-TUE...PREVIOUS EXTENDED DISCUSSION...SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED WX
PATTERN OVER THE WEEKEND AND CONTG INTO NEXT WEEK AS A SHORT WAVE
TROF OVER THE WEST COAST WORKS ITS WAY ACRS THE SRN TIER STATES. AN
H30-H20 JET STREAK EXTENDING FROM THE BAJA PENINSULA TO THE MID ATLC
COAST WILL PROVIDE THE UPR LVL SUPPORT TO ALLOW THE SHORTWAVE TO
DVLP A CLOSED SFC LOW AS IT PUSHES ACRS THE ARKLATEX. HOWEVER...MAX
WINDS ASSOCD WITH THE JET ARE ONLY 80-100KTS WHILE ITS ORIENTATION
IS EITHER ZONAL OR LIFTING. NEITHER OF THESE FACTORS ARE CONDUCIVE
FOR RAPID OR STRONG STORM DVLPMNT. FURTHERMORE...AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE W ATLC... IT WILL DEFLECT THE
SFC LOW OFF TO THE NE BUILD SIMULTANEOUSLY BLOCKING OUT ITS ASSOCD
COLD FRONT.

THE RESULT WILL BE A FRONT THAT SHOULD STALL OVER CENTRAL FL AS THE
WEAK STORM SYSTEM LIFTS UP THE ERN SEABOARD. DEEP MOISTURE POOLING
WITHIN THE TROF WILL RETURN TO THE STATE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH
THE RIDGE ANCHORED NE OF THE BAHAMA BANK...A DEEP SW FLOW WILL
PREVAIL THRU THE COLUMN THAT WILL GENERATE GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT.
WHILE THIS USUALLY GENERATES A MORE STRATIFORM TYPE OF RAIN
EVENT...H50 TEMPS BTWN -10C/-12C WILL HELP GENERATE SOME FAIRLY
STEEP LAPSE RATES BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND THAT COULD TRIGGER ISOLD
TSRAS.

WILL KEEP SOME MENTION OF PRECIP IN THE FCST THRU THE PD BUT BLO
50PCT. A PROLONGED PD OF S/SWRLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL HELP
KEEP TEMPS ABV AVG...THOUGH CLOUDS AND RAIN COOLED AIR WILL HELP
OFFSET THIS EFFECT. AFTN MAXES GENERALLY IN THE L/M70S N OF
I-4...M/U70S TO THE S. MIN TEMPS M/U50S INTERIOR/VOLUSIA COAST AND
U50S TO M60S ALONG THE SPACE/TREASURE COASTS.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SHALLOW GROUND
FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS A FEW OF THE TERMINALS BEFORE
SUNRISE...HOWEVER...NO MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME DUE TO
LOW CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...TONIGHT/THURSDAY...WEAK RIDGING WILL KEEP A LIGHT TO
GENTLE NORTHWEST BREEZE THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEAS 2 - 3 FEET
OVERNIGHT BECOMING AT OR BELOW 2 FEET THURSDAY.

THU NIGHT...LIGHT NW FLOW WITH WIND SPEEDS MAINLY 5-10 KTS. SEAS AOB
3 FT.

FRI-FRI NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WEAKENS WITH THE APPROACH OF A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FRI OVERNIGHT. NNW/N MORNING WINDS WILL VEER TO
NE/E THRU THE AFTERNOON...THEN SE/S OVERNIGHT. WIND SPEEDS WILL
MAINTAIN AOB 10 KTS DURING THE DAY AND 7-12 KTS FRI NIGHT. SEAS
CONTINUE AOB 3 FT.

SAT-SAT NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE FL PANHANDLE EARLY IN THE
PERIOD WILL WEAKEN AND RACE ENE. AN ASSOCIATED WEAK COOL FRONT WILL
MAKE PROGRESS INTO NORTH FL BY LATE IN THE DAY AND PERHAPS AS FAR AS
N/C FL BY DAYBREAK SUN MORNING. S WINDS NEAR 12 KTS OVER THE OPEN
ATLC WILL VEER SSW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND MORE SW OVERNIGHT. WIND
SPEEDS STILL AVERAGING 7-12 KTS AWAY FROM THE COAST SAT NIGHT. SEAS
AOB 2 FT NEAR SHORE AND TO 2-3 FT SAT AFTN/NIGHT.

SUN-SUN NIGHT...FORECAST STILL HINGES ON EXACTLY HOW FAR SOUTH
DURING THIS PERIOD THE FRONT IS ABLE TO PENETRATE. FIRST GUESS IS
SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PENINSULA. EXPECT SW/WSW WINDS SOUTH OF
THIS BOUNDARY AND PERHAPS A MORE NORTHERLY COMPONENT BEHIND IT. SEAS
STILL AOB 3 FT. WIND SPEEDS STILL 6-12 KTS AT BEST. GREATEST SHOWER
CHANCES NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET AND 20 TO 30 PERCENT FORECAST AT
THE PRESENT TIME FOR SUN AND UP TO 40 PERCENT NORTH OF THE CAPE
SUN NIGHT. NO TSRA CHANCES ENTER THE PICTURE UNTIL EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...PERHAPS SOME LOW RH`S THU-FRI AFTN IN THE 30S TO
LOWER 40S (INTERIOR)...BUT A BUMP UP IN MOISTURE IS FORECAST FOR
AFTERNOON RHS THIS WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH AN APPROACHING WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. DISPERSION INDICES LOOK TO STAY FAIR AT BEST.
ONLY VISIBILITY CONCERNS WILL REVOLVE AROUND EXISTING FIRES OR
SMOLDERING BURNS FOR SOME EARLY MORNING (SHALLOW) PATCHY FOG.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...THE SAINT JOHNS RIVER ABOVE LAKE HARNEY (GENF1) HAS
FALLEN TO ACTION STAGE AT 6.50 FT AS OF 2 PM (6.50FT). PROTRACTED
DRY WEATHER WILL ALLOW THE RIVER TO DROP BELOW ACTION STAGE BY
TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  48  67  47  69 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  47  70  48  71 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  49  69  50  72 /   0   0   0   0
VRB  47  71  48  72 /   0   0   0   0
LEE  44  68  47  69 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  47  69  48  71 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  47  69  51  71 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  50  70  47  72 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION/SHORT TERM...ULRICH
IMPACT WX/LONG TERM....SEDLOCK







000
FXUS62 KMLB 171915
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
215 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...

...UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK...

TONIGHT....BOUNDARY HAS WASHED OUT ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES WITH
WEAK FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. LINGERING CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
TREASURE COAST EXPECTED TO THIN AND CLEAR OUT BY THIS EVENING.
WEAK RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT OUT OF THE WEST
AND NORTHWEST.

THURSDAY...WEAK RIDGING AT THE SURFACE WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL
KEEP WINDS LIGHT. EXPECT SOME SEMBLANCE OF A SEA BREEZE TO PUSH
INLAND...ALLOWING A WEAK ONSHORE BREEZE TO DEVELOP ALONG OUR
COASTAL COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES REMAIN SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS NEAR
70 ACROSS THE AREA. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED WITH JUST A FEW
HIGH CLOUDS PASSING OVERHEAD.

THU NIGHT-FRI NIGHT...RATHER FLAT MID LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS FORECAST
WITH ZONAL FLOW DOMINATING THIS PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL LIE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRI BEFORE IT IS SHUNTED
FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST FRI OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING ACROSS EAST TEXAS ON THU/THU NIGHT. THE
SURFACE LOW WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD FRI-FRI NIGHT REACHING THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE BY SUNRISE SAT MORNING. A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL
EXTEND SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE SURFACE LOW. INITIAL LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL VEER EAST ON FRI AND
EVENTUALLY SE/S FRI EVENING/OVERNIGHT. CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL FRI...STARTING TO
WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL FRI NIGHT.

SAT-TUE...PREVIOUS EXTENDED DISCUSSION...SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED WX
PATTERN OVER THE WEEKEND AND CONTG INTO NEXT WEEK AS A SHORT WAVE
TROF OVER THE WEST COAST WORKS ITS WAY ACRS THE SRN TIER STATES. AN
H30-H20 JET STREAK EXTENDING FROM THE BAJA PENINSULA TO THE MID ATLC
COAST WILL PROVIDE THE UPR LVL SUPPORT TO ALLOW THE SHORTWAVE TO
DVLP A CLOSED SFC LOW AS IT PUSHES ACRS THE ARKLATEX. HOWEVER...MAX
WINDS ASSOCD WITH THE JET ARE ONLY 80-100KTS WHILE ITS ORIENTATION
IS EITHER ZONAL OR LIFTING. NEITHER OF THESE FACTORS ARE CONDUCIVE
FOR RAPID OR STRONG STORM DVLPMNT. FURTHERMORE...AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE W ATLC... IT WILL DEFLECT THE
SFC LOW OFF TO THE NE BUILD SIMULTANEOUSLY BLOCKING OUT ITS ASSOCD
COLD FRONT.

THE RESULT WILL BE A FRONT THAT SHOULD STALL OVER CENTRAL FL AS THE
WEAK STORM SYSTEM LIFTS UP THE ERN SEABOARD. DEEP MOISTURE POOLING
WITHIN THE TROF WILL RETURN TO THE STATE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH
THE RIDGE ANCHORED NE OF THE BAHAMA BANK...A DEEP SW FLOW WILL
PREVAIL THRU THE COLUMN THAT WILL GENERATE GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT.
WHILE THIS USUALLY GENERATES A MORE STRATIFORM TYPE OF RAIN
EVENT...H50 TEMPS BTWN -10C/-12C WILL HELP GENERATE SOME FAIRLY
STEEP LAPSE RATES BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND THAT COULD TRIGGER ISOLD
TSRAS.

WILL KEEP SOME MENTION OF PRECIP IN THE FCST THRU THE PD BUT BLO
50PCT. A PROLONGED PD OF S/SWRLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL HELP
KEEP TEMPS ABV AVG...THOUGH CLOUDS AND RAIN COOLED AIR WILL HELP
OFFSET THIS EFFECT. AFTN MAXES GENERALLY IN THE L/M70S N OF
I-4...M/U70S TO THE S. MIN TEMPS M/U50S INTERIOR/VOLUSIA COAST AND
U50S TO M60S ALONG THE SPACE/TREASURE COASTS.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SHALLOW GROUND
FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS A FEW OF THE TERMINALS BEFORE
SUNRISE...HOWEVER...NO MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME DUE TO
LOW CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...TONIGHT/THURSDAY...WEAK RIDGING WILL KEEP A LIGHT TO
GENTLE NORTHWEST BREEZE THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEAS 2 - 3 FEET
OVERNIGHT BECOMING AT OR BELOW 2 FEET THURSDAY.

THU NIGHT...LIGHT NW FLOW WITH WIND SPEEDS MAINLY 5-10 KTS. SEAS AOB
3 FT.

FRI-FRI NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WEAKENS WITH THE APPROACH OF A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FRI OVERNIGHT. NNW/N MORNING WINDS WILL VEER TO
NE/E THRU THE AFTERNOON...THEN SE/S OVERNIGHT. WIND SPEEDS WILL
MAINTAIN AOB 10 KTS DURING THE DAY AND 7-12 KTS FRI NIGHT. SEAS
CONTINUE AOB 3 FT.

SAT-SAT NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE FL PANHANDLE EARLY IN THE
PERIOD WILL WEAKEN AND RACE ENE. AN ASSOCIATED WEAK COOL FRONT WILL
MAKE PROGRESS INTO NORTH FL BY LATE IN THE DAY AND PERHAPS AS FAR AS
N/C FL BY DAYBREAK SUN MORNING. S WINDS NEAR 12 KTS OVER THE OPEN
ATLC WILL VEER SSW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND MORE SW OVERNIGHT. WIND
SPEEDS STILL AVERAGING 7-12 KTS AWAY FROM THE COAST SAT NIGHT. SEAS
AOB 2 FT NEAR SHORE AND TO 2-3 FT SAT AFTN/NIGHT.

SUN-SUN NIGHT...FORECAST STILL HINGES ON EXACTLY HOW FAR SOUTH
DURING THIS PERIOD THE FRONT IS ABLE TO PENETRATE. FIRST GUESS IS
SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PENINSULA. EXPECT SW/WSW WINDS SOUTH OF
THIS BOUNDARY AND PERHAPS A MORE NORTHERLY COMPONENT BEHIND IT. SEAS
STILL AOB 3 FT. WIND SPEEDS STILL 6-12 KTS AT BEST. GREATEST SHOWER
CHANCES NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET AND 20 TO 30 PERCENT FORECAST AT
THE PRESENT TIME FOR SUN AND UP TO 40 PERCENT NORTH OF THE CAPE
SUN NIGHT. NO TSRA CHANCES ENTER THE PICTURE UNTIL EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...PERHAPS SOME LOW RH`S THU-FRI AFTN IN THE 30S TO
LOWER 40S (INTERIOR)...BUT A BUMP UP IN MOISTURE IS FORECAST FOR
AFTERNOON RHS THIS WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH AN APPROACHING WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. DISPERSION INDICES LOOK TO STAY FAIR AT BEST.
ONLY VISIBILITY CONCERNS WILL REVOLVE AROUND EXISTING FIRES OR
SMOLDERING BURNS FOR SOME EARLY MORNING (SHALLOW) PATCHY FOG.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...THE SAINT JOHNS RIVER ABOVE LAKE HARNEY (GENF1) HAS
FALLEN TO ACTION STAGE AT 6.50 FT AS OF 2 PM (6.50FT). PROTRACTED
DRY WEATHER WILL ALLOW THE RIVER TO DROP BELOW ACTION STAGE BY
TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  48  67  47  69 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  47  70  48  71 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  49  69  50  72 /   0   0   0   0
VRB  47  71  48  72 /   0   0   0   0
LEE  44  68  47  69 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  47  69  48  71 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  47  69  51  71 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  50  70  47  72 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION/SHORT TERM...ULRICH
IMPACT WX/LONG TERM....SEDLOCK








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