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000
FXUS62 KMLB 041433
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
932 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

...MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT TWO DAYS...
...NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN ORLANDO TODAY...

.UPDATE...
DEEP LAYER RIDGING OVERHEAD WILL RULE THE WEATHER TODAY. WITH THE
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS REMAINING IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL
FLORIDA...EXPECT LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS TO INCREASE A BIT THIS
AFTERNOON. WARM AND HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED TO WARM
TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S...NEAR RECORD WARMTH...ACROSS
MUCH OF THE INTERIOR. EXPECT SOME BACKING OF THE WINDS ALONG THE
COASTLINE AS A SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS AND PUSHES INLAND. THIS SHOULD
HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW TICKS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COASTLINE AS THE SHELF WATERS OF THE ATLANTIC REMAIN RATHER
CHILLY.

&&

.AVIATION...THIS MORNING`S FOG HAS GIVEN WAY TO MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES OVER ALL THE TERMINALS. FEW/SCT CLOUDS BETWEEN FL025-FL035
EXPECTED AS DAYTIME HEATING PROGRESSES LATE THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES WITH A SEA BREEZE BACKING
WINDS A BIT ALONG COASTAL TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY
TODAY AND INCREASE TO 10 - 15 KNOTS. THIS AFTERNOON...LOCAL SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATION EXPECTED TO KEEP WINDS A BIT MORE ONSHORE NEAR
THE COASTLINE. SEAS 3 TO 4 FEET NEARSHORE AND 4 TO 5 FEET
OFFSHORE.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGHS FOR MARCH 4TH AND 5TH:
ORLANDO HAS THE BEST CHANCE TO EQUAL OR BREAK THEIR RECORD TODAY.

DAB 4-MAR 88 1953
MCO 4-MAR 88 1989
MLB 4-MAR 87 1982
VRB 4-MAR 89 2001

DAB 5-MAR  87 1985
MCO 5-MAR  90 1929
MLB 5-MAR  88 1982
VRB 5-MAR  89 2003

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  85  64  83  63 /  10  10  10  10
MCO  89  65  87  64 /  10  10  10  10
MLB  84  68  84  66 /  10  10  10  10
VRB  86  67  84  65 /  10  10  10  20
LEE  87  66  85  62 /  10  10  10  10
SFB  87  65  87  64 /  10  10  10  10
ORL  87  66  87  64 /  10  10  10  10
FPR  85  67  84  64 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION/SHORT TERM...ULRICH
IMPACT WX/LONG TERM....SPRATT





000
FXUS62 KMLB 041433
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
932 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

...MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT TWO DAYS...
...NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN ORLANDO TODAY...

.UPDATE...
DEEP LAYER RIDGING OVERHEAD WILL RULE THE WEATHER TODAY. WITH THE
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS REMAINING IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL
FLORIDA...EXPECT LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS TO INCREASE A BIT THIS
AFTERNOON. WARM AND HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED TO WARM
TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S...NEAR RECORD WARMTH...ACROSS
MUCH OF THE INTERIOR. EXPECT SOME BACKING OF THE WINDS ALONG THE
COASTLINE AS A SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS AND PUSHES INLAND. THIS SHOULD
HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW TICKS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COASTLINE AS THE SHELF WATERS OF THE ATLANTIC REMAIN RATHER
CHILLY.

&&

.AVIATION...THIS MORNING`S FOG HAS GIVEN WAY TO MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES OVER ALL THE TERMINALS. FEW/SCT CLOUDS BETWEEN FL025-FL035
EXPECTED AS DAYTIME HEATING PROGRESSES LATE THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES WITH A SEA BREEZE BACKING
WINDS A BIT ALONG COASTAL TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY
TODAY AND INCREASE TO 10 - 15 KNOTS. THIS AFTERNOON...LOCAL SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATION EXPECTED TO KEEP WINDS A BIT MORE ONSHORE NEAR
THE COASTLINE. SEAS 3 TO 4 FEET NEARSHORE AND 4 TO 5 FEET
OFFSHORE.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGHS FOR MARCH 4TH AND 5TH:
ORLANDO HAS THE BEST CHANCE TO EQUAL OR BREAK THEIR RECORD TODAY.

DAB 4-MAR 88 1953
MCO 4-MAR 88 1989
MLB 4-MAR 87 1982
VRB 4-MAR 89 2001

DAB 5-MAR  87 1985
MCO 5-MAR  90 1929
MLB 5-MAR  88 1982
VRB 5-MAR  89 2003

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  85  64  83  63 /  10  10  10  10
MCO  89  65  87  64 /  10  10  10  10
MLB  84  68  84  66 /  10  10  10  10
VRB  86  67  84  65 /  10  10  10  20
LEE  87  66  85  62 /  10  10  10  10
SFB  87  65  87  64 /  10  10  10  10
ORL  87  66  87  64 /  10  10  10  10
FPR  85  67  84  64 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION/SHORT TERM...ULRICH
IMPACT WX/LONG TERM....SPRATT




000
FXUS62 KMLB 040938
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
436 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT COUPLE DAYS...
...NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN ORLANDO TODAY...

CURRENT-TODAY...SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER THE ATLANTIC PUSHING MARINE
LAYER STRATUS AND STRATOCUMULUS ASHORE SEBASTIAN INLET SOUTH.
PATCHY DENSE FOG SHOULD MAKE FOR HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS
MAINLY OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS. THE HRRR LOW LEVEL WINDS SHOW
MARINE LAYER CLOUDS BEING PUSHED ASHORE THROUGH THE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON. AT THE COAST NORTH OF COCOA BEACH AND PORT
CANAVERAL AND INLAND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THE RULE. SOUTHERLY WIND
AND LESS CLOUD COVER INLAND HIGHS IN MID 80S AND REACHING THE
UPPER 80S FOR MOST OF THE INTERIOR. HIGHS AT THE COAST LOW AND MID
80S DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH AND HOW LONG THE STRATUS/STRATOCUMULUS
OFF THE OCEAN STAYS AROUND.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA RETREATS
EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST STATES. SOUTHEAST WINDS
BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AS THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH
SHIFTS INTO THE ATLANTIC. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL MAKE FOR A WARM
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S NORTH AND CENTRAL FORECAST AREAS AND
THE MID TO UPPER 60S FROM SOUTH BREVARD COUNTY SOUTH.

THU...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL COMBINE WITH WARM S/SW LOW LEVEL
FLOW TO PRODUCE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S. FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THERE WILL BE A SMALL
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH SHOULD PRODUCE A LITTLE MORE
CLOUDINESS. OTHERWISE THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN LOOKS QUITE DRY SO
RAIN CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION. THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS
DEVELOP AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE DURING PEAK HEATING. MOS GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT THE CLOUDS SHOULD HOLD MAX TEMPS DOWN A BIT
COMPARED TO TODAY...STILL ABOVE NORMAL BUT SHY OF ANY RECORDS. IF
THERE IS MORE SFC HEATING THAN EXPECTED...DAYTONA COULD REACH
THEIR RECORD HIGH GIVEN THE OFFSHORE FLOW.

THU NIGHT...A WEAK COOL FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH INTO CENT FL. A
SHALLOW MOIST LAYER OF COOL NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SPREADING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA.
MEASURABLE RAIN CHANCES LOOK QUITE LOW BUT WILL HOLD ONTO A SMALL
20 POP ALONG THE COAST SOUTH OF THE CAPE LATE.

FRI...LOW CLOUDS AND COOL NORTHERLY FLOW ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE
FRONT ACROSS NORTH/CENTRAL SECTIONS. HAVE GONE SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW GFS MOS GUIDANCE ACROSS THE NORTH. THE DIURNAL TEMP RANGE
SHOULD BE QUITE SMALL FOR DAB/LEE WITH HIGHS NOT MUCH HIGHER THAN
THE MORNING LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. OUR FORECAST OF LOWER 70S
FOR ORLANDO METRO MAY BE OPTIMISTIC AND THIS IS ALREADY 5 DEGREES
BELOW MOS GUIDANCE. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE SLOW TO PUSH
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS SO HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 80S
FROM OKEECHOBEE TO THE TREASURE COAST. NOT SURPRISINGLY...THIS IS
ALSO WHERE THERE IS THE BEST (30 PERCENT) CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.

SAT-TUE...THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS SOUTH
FL SAT AND THEN SLOWLY LIFT BACK NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT REMAIN
NEAR CENT FL. THIS WILL KEEP CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS AND A 20 TO 30
PERCENT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REBOUND SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND BE MORE SEASONABLE
IN THE 70S THIS WEEKEND BUT NORTH LAKE/VOLUSIA MAY NOT GET OUT OF
THE 60S BOTH SAT-SUN ESPECIALLY IF THE NORTH FLOW PERSISTS.

&&

.AVIATION...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR MIST AND FOG THROUGH 14Z THEN VFR.


&&

.MARINE...CURRENTLY BUOYS RECORDING SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 TO
12 KNOTS AND 3 TO 4 FOOT SEAS.

TODAY-TONIGHT...WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH THEN SOUTH SOUTHWEST AND
INCREASE TO 12 TO 15 KNOTS AS A FRONT MOVES FROM THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TO GEORGIA...ALABAMA...WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE TONIGHT. SEAS 3 TO 4 FEET NEARSHORE AND 4 TO 5 FEET
OFFSHORE.

THU-SUN...SOUTHERLY FLOW THU 10-15 KNOTS WILL TURN NORTHERLY
BEHIND A COOL FRONT THU NIGHT AND FRI. THE BOUNDARY WILL STALL
ACROSS SOUTH FL FRI. THE INITIAL SURGE OF NORTH WINDS LOOKS TO BE
AROUND 15 KNOTS THU NIGHT BUT A STRONGER PRES GRAD WILL BRING NEAR
20 KNOTS LATE FRI/FRI NIGHT INTO THE NORTH AND CENTRAL WATERS. SO
SCA HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE THIS
WEEKEND AS THE BOUNDARY LIFTS BACK NORTH ACROSS THE WATERS WITH AN
INCREASE IN SE FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS SUNDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGHS FOR MARCH 4TH AND 5TH:
ORLANDO HAS THE BEST CHANCE TO EQUAL OR BREAK THEIR RECORD TODAY.

DAB 4-MAR 88 1953
MCO 4-MAR 88 1989
MLB 4-MAR 87 1982
VRB 4-MAR 89 2001

DAB 5-MAR  87 1985
MCO 5-MAR  90 1929
MLB 5-MAR  88 1982
VRB 5-MAR  89 2003

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  85  64  83  63 /  10  10  10  10
MCO  88  65  87  64 /  10  10  10  10
MLB  84  68  84  66 /  10  10  10  10
VRB  85  67  84  65 /  10  10  10  20
LEE  87  66  85  62 /  10  10  10  10
SFB  87  65  87  64 /  10  10  10  10
ORL  87  66  87  64 /  10  10  10  10
FPR  85  67  84  64 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WIMMER
LONG TERM....KELLY
AVIATION...WIMMER





000
FXUS62 KMLB 040938
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
436 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT COUPLE DAYS...
...NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN ORLANDO TODAY...

CURRENT-TODAY...SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER THE ATLANTIC PUSHING MARINE
LAYER STRATUS AND STRATOCUMULUS ASHORE SEBASTIAN INLET SOUTH.
PATCHY DENSE FOG SHOULD MAKE FOR HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS
MAINLY OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS. THE HRRR LOW LEVEL WINDS SHOW
MARINE LAYER CLOUDS BEING PUSHED ASHORE THROUGH THE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON. AT THE COAST NORTH OF COCOA BEACH AND PORT
CANAVERAL AND INLAND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THE RULE. SOUTHERLY WIND
AND LESS CLOUD COVER INLAND HIGHS IN MID 80S AND REACHING THE
UPPER 80S FOR MOST OF THE INTERIOR. HIGHS AT THE COAST LOW AND MID
80S DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH AND HOW LONG THE STRATUS/STRATOCUMULUS
OFF THE OCEAN STAYS AROUND.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA RETREATS
EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST STATES. SOUTHEAST WINDS
BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AS THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH
SHIFTS INTO THE ATLANTIC. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL MAKE FOR A WARM
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S NORTH AND CENTRAL FORECAST AREAS AND
THE MID TO UPPER 60S FROM SOUTH BREVARD COUNTY SOUTH.

THU...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL COMBINE WITH WARM S/SW LOW LEVEL
FLOW TO PRODUCE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S. FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THERE WILL BE A SMALL
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH SHOULD PRODUCE A LITTLE MORE
CLOUDINESS. OTHERWISE THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN LOOKS QUITE DRY SO
RAIN CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION. THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS
DEVELOP AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE DURING PEAK HEATING. MOS GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT THE CLOUDS SHOULD HOLD MAX TEMPS DOWN A BIT
COMPARED TO TODAY...STILL ABOVE NORMAL BUT SHY OF ANY RECORDS. IF
THERE IS MORE SFC HEATING THAN EXPECTED...DAYTONA COULD REACH
THEIR RECORD HIGH GIVEN THE OFFSHORE FLOW.

THU NIGHT...A WEAK COOL FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH INTO CENT FL. A
SHALLOW MOIST LAYER OF COOL NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SPREADING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA.
MEASURABLE RAIN CHANCES LOOK QUITE LOW BUT WILL HOLD ONTO A SMALL
20 POP ALONG THE COAST SOUTH OF THE CAPE LATE.

FRI...LOW CLOUDS AND COOL NORTHERLY FLOW ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE
FRONT ACROSS NORTH/CENTRAL SECTIONS. HAVE GONE SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW GFS MOS GUIDANCE ACROSS THE NORTH. THE DIURNAL TEMP RANGE
SHOULD BE QUITE SMALL FOR DAB/LEE WITH HIGHS NOT MUCH HIGHER THAN
THE MORNING LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. OUR FORECAST OF LOWER 70S
FOR ORLANDO METRO MAY BE OPTIMISTIC AND THIS IS ALREADY 5 DEGREES
BELOW MOS GUIDANCE. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE SLOW TO PUSH
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS SO HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 80S
FROM OKEECHOBEE TO THE TREASURE COAST. NOT SURPRISINGLY...THIS IS
ALSO WHERE THERE IS THE BEST (30 PERCENT) CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.

SAT-TUE...THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS SOUTH
FL SAT AND THEN SLOWLY LIFT BACK NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT REMAIN
NEAR CENT FL. THIS WILL KEEP CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS AND A 20 TO 30
PERCENT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REBOUND SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND BE MORE SEASONABLE
IN THE 70S THIS WEEKEND BUT NORTH LAKE/VOLUSIA MAY NOT GET OUT OF
THE 60S BOTH SAT-SUN ESPECIALLY IF THE NORTH FLOW PERSISTS.

&&

.AVIATION...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR MIST AND FOG THROUGH 14Z THEN VFR.


&&

.MARINE...CURRENTLY BUOYS RECORDING SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 TO
12 KNOTS AND 3 TO 4 FOOT SEAS.

TODAY-TONIGHT...WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH THEN SOUTH SOUTHWEST AND
INCREASE TO 12 TO 15 KNOTS AS A FRONT MOVES FROM THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TO GEORGIA...ALABAMA...WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE TONIGHT. SEAS 3 TO 4 FEET NEARSHORE AND 4 TO 5 FEET
OFFSHORE.

THU-SUN...SOUTHERLY FLOW THU 10-15 KNOTS WILL TURN NORTHERLY
BEHIND A COOL FRONT THU NIGHT AND FRI. THE BOUNDARY WILL STALL
ACROSS SOUTH FL FRI. THE INITIAL SURGE OF NORTH WINDS LOOKS TO BE
AROUND 15 KNOTS THU NIGHT BUT A STRONGER PRES GRAD WILL BRING NEAR
20 KNOTS LATE FRI/FRI NIGHT INTO THE NORTH AND CENTRAL WATERS. SO
SCA HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE THIS
WEEKEND AS THE BOUNDARY LIFTS BACK NORTH ACROSS THE WATERS WITH AN
INCREASE IN SE FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS SUNDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGHS FOR MARCH 4TH AND 5TH:
ORLANDO HAS THE BEST CHANCE TO EQUAL OR BREAK THEIR RECORD TODAY.

DAB 4-MAR 88 1953
MCO 4-MAR 88 1989
MLB 4-MAR 87 1982
VRB 4-MAR 89 2001

DAB 5-MAR  87 1985
MCO 5-MAR  90 1929
MLB 5-MAR  88 1982
VRB 5-MAR  89 2003

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  85  64  83  63 /  10  10  10  10
MCO  88  65  87  64 /  10  10  10  10
MLB  84  68  84  66 /  10  10  10  10
VRB  85  67  84  65 /  10  10  10  20
LEE  87  66  85  62 /  10  10  10  10
SFB  87  65  87  64 /  10  10  10  10
ORL  87  66  87  64 /  10  10  10  10
FPR  85  67  84  64 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WIMMER
LONG TERM....KELLY
AVIATION...WIMMER




000
FXUS62 KMLB 040150
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
850 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...

SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST OVERNIGHT WITH ITS
AXIS DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE...THE LOW-MID LEVEL RIDGE CENTER THAT IS
PARKED OVERHEAD OF FLORIDA THIS EVENING WILL MOVE OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST. THE MOVEMENT OF BOTH OF THESE FEATURES WILL BRING A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE LOCAL GRADIENT AS WINDS VEER MORE SOUTHERLY.

915 MHZ PROFILER AT THE CAPE SHOWS WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE AT 15
TO 20KTS WHICH MESOSCALE MODELS KEEP IN PLACE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. WE WILL ALSO SEE SURFACE WINDS SLOWER TO DROP OFF THIS
EVENING...AND PERHAPS REMAINING IN THE 5-10KTS RANGE ALONG THE
BREVARD/TREASURE COAST THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT. SO DESPITE MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG
COVERAGE SEEMS UNLIKELY AS DEVELOPMENT WILL FAVOR MORE STRATUS JUST
ABOVE THE SURFACE. HOWEVER STILL EXPECT TO SEE PATCHY-AREAS OF FOG
DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT...WITH OVERALL VISIBILITIES NOT AS LOW AS
PREVIOUS FEW NIGHTS. ANYONE OUT LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR LOCALLY DENSE PATCHES IN LOW LYING AREAS OR
NEAR BODIES OF WATER.

EARLIER CLOUD BANDS OVER THE ATLANTIC HAVE MOSTLY DISSIPATED...BUT
COULD SEE A FEW MORE BAHAMAS STREAMERS OR GULF STREAM SHOWERS SO
KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION IN OVER THE WATER. WHILE UNLIKELY...A
SPRINKLE MAY REACH THE MARTIN COUNTY COAST.

OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...OCCASIONAL CIGS FL040-060 THIS EVENING OVER INTERIOR
WITH REMNANTS OF SEA BREEZE PUSHING INLAND. OCCASIONAL CIGS FL020
BRUSHING COAST SOUTH OF KVRB THROUGH WED MORNING WITH ATLC CLOUD
BANDS.

WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG CONDS SEEM LESS LIKELY TONIGHT DUE TO
INCREASING SOUTHERLY BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS. HOWEVER...STILL EXPECT
IFR/LIFR STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AFTER 5Z WITH PATCHY-AREAS MAINLY MVFR
FOG IN MOST AREAS OTHER THAN IMMEDIATE TREASURE COAST. BEST CHANCE
FOR PREVAILING LOWER VISIBILITIES IN FOG WILL BE OVER THE NORTH AND
INTERIOR 9Z-13Z...WITH MORE TEMPO CONDITIONS ALONG BREVARD COAST.

ANY STRATUS/FOG OVER THE AREA IN THE MORNING WILL LIFT AND BREAK UP
AFTER 14Z-15Z WITH PREVAILING VFR CONDS RETURNING FOR THE AFTERNOON
IN FEW-SCT DIURNAL CU.

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OFFSHORE OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
WILL VEER WINDS FROM THE E/SE TO S/SE INTO TOMORROW WITH A SMALL
INCREASE IN THE LOCAL GRADIENT. OVERALL WIND SPEEDS COMING UP TO 10-
15KTS LATER TONIGHT...WITH CLOSER TO 15KTS BY WED AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL. SEAS 3-5 FEET. SOME FOG WILL
LIKELY LINGER OFF OF THE VOLUSIA COAST OVERNIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGHS FOR MARCH 4TH AND 5TH:
RECORD HIGH
DAB 4-MAR  88 1953
MCO 4-MAR  88 1989
MLB 4-MAR  87 1982
VRB 4-MAR  89 2001

DAB 5-MAR  87 1985
MCO 5-MAR  90 1929
MLB 5-MAR  88 1982
VRB 5-MAR  89 2003

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

MOSES/SEDLOCK





000
FXUS62 KMLB 040150
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
850 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...

SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST OVERNIGHT WITH ITS
AXIS DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE...THE LOW-MID LEVEL RIDGE CENTER THAT IS
PARKED OVERHEAD OF FLORIDA THIS EVENING WILL MOVE OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST. THE MOVEMENT OF BOTH OF THESE FEATURES WILL BRING A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE LOCAL GRADIENT AS WINDS VEER MORE SOUTHERLY.

915 MHZ PROFILER AT THE CAPE SHOWS WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE AT 15
TO 20KTS WHICH MESOSCALE MODELS KEEP IN PLACE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. WE WILL ALSO SEE SURFACE WINDS SLOWER TO DROP OFF THIS
EVENING...AND PERHAPS REMAINING IN THE 5-10KTS RANGE ALONG THE
BREVARD/TREASURE COAST THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT. SO DESPITE MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG
COVERAGE SEEMS UNLIKELY AS DEVELOPMENT WILL FAVOR MORE STRATUS JUST
ABOVE THE SURFACE. HOWEVER STILL EXPECT TO SEE PATCHY-AREAS OF FOG
DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT...WITH OVERALL VISIBILITIES NOT AS LOW AS
PREVIOUS FEW NIGHTS. ANYONE OUT LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR LOCALLY DENSE PATCHES IN LOW LYING AREAS OR
NEAR BODIES OF WATER.

EARLIER CLOUD BANDS OVER THE ATLANTIC HAVE MOSTLY DISSIPATED...BUT
COULD SEE A FEW MORE BAHAMAS STREAMERS OR GULF STREAM SHOWERS SO
KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION IN OVER THE WATER. WHILE UNLIKELY...A
SPRINKLE MAY REACH THE MARTIN COUNTY COAST.

OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...OCCASIONAL CIGS FL040-060 THIS EVENING OVER INTERIOR
WITH REMNANTS OF SEA BREEZE PUSHING INLAND. OCCASIONAL CIGS FL020
BRUSHING COAST SOUTH OF KVRB THROUGH WED MORNING WITH ATLC CLOUD
BANDS.

WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG CONDS SEEM LESS LIKELY TONIGHT DUE TO
INCREASING SOUTHERLY BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS. HOWEVER...STILL EXPECT
IFR/LIFR STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AFTER 5Z WITH PATCHY-AREAS MAINLY MVFR
FOG IN MOST AREAS OTHER THAN IMMEDIATE TREASURE COAST. BEST CHANCE
FOR PREVAILING LOWER VISIBILITIES IN FOG WILL BE OVER THE NORTH AND
INTERIOR 9Z-13Z...WITH MORE TEMPO CONDITIONS ALONG BREVARD COAST.

ANY STRATUS/FOG OVER THE AREA IN THE MORNING WILL LIFT AND BREAK UP
AFTER 14Z-15Z WITH PREVAILING VFR CONDS RETURNING FOR THE AFTERNOON
IN FEW-SCT DIURNAL CU.

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OFFSHORE OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
WILL VEER WINDS FROM THE E/SE TO S/SE INTO TOMORROW WITH A SMALL
INCREASE IN THE LOCAL GRADIENT. OVERALL WIND SPEEDS COMING UP TO 10-
15KTS LATER TONIGHT...WITH CLOSER TO 15KTS BY WED AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL. SEAS 3-5 FEET. SOME FOG WILL
LIKELY LINGER OFF OF THE VOLUSIA COAST OVERNIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGHS FOR MARCH 4TH AND 5TH:
RECORD HIGH
DAB 4-MAR  88 1953
MCO 4-MAR  88 1989
MLB 4-MAR  87 1982
VRB 4-MAR  89 2001

DAB 5-MAR  87 1985
MCO 5-MAR  90 1929
MLB 5-MAR  88 1982
VRB 5-MAR  89 2003

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

MOSES/SEDLOCK




000
FXUS62 KMLB 032026
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
326 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT/WED...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OFFSHORE OF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD INTO TOMORROW WITH RIDGE AXIS BUILDING
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW LOW LEVEL ONSHORE WINDS TO BECOME
SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE INTO TONIGHT. MAIN CONCERN WILL CONTINUE TO
BE FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA AND HAVE KEPT A MENTION OF
PATCHY FOG TO AREAS OF FOG IN FOR TONIGHT. HOWEVER WITH ELEVATED
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS OVERNIGHT...WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG COVERAGE SEEM
LESS LIKELY. LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THOUGH
IN CASE ANY DENSE FOG ADVISORIES ARE NEEDED. CLOUD BANDS OVER THE
ATLANTIC GENERATING ISO LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER THE ATLANTIC. MAY SEE SOME
CONTINUED SPRINKLES MOVE ONSHORE ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE CAPE IN
THE EVENING.

ANY STRATUS/FOG OVER THE REGION IN THE MORNING WILL MIX OUT BY LATE
MORNING WITH WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TOMORROW AFT. HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW-MID 80S...WITH UPPER 80S POSSIBLE OVER THE
INTERIOR. ORLANDO IS FORECAST TO COME CLOSE TO ITS RECORD HIGH OF
88 DEGREES TOMORROW (SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW).

THU...WARM DAY AGAIN. TEMPS AGAIN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW COMPONENT IN LOW LEVELS AND CONTINUED INFLUENCE FROM
RIDGING ALOFT. DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM CLIMBING INTO
THE MID/UPPER 80S OVER THE INTERIOR AND JUST A FEW DEGREES LOWER AT
TEH COAST. MOISTURE WILL BE CONFINED TO THE LOWEST LEVELS WITH DRY
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE MID LEVELS SO JUST ANTICIPATING SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CLOUDS BUT NO MENTIONABLE POPS AT THIS TIME.

THU NIGHT...RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO RETREAT A LITTLE SOUTHWARD AHEAD OF
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. LATEST MODEL RUNS SUGGEST MENTIONABLE POPS WILL
MAINLY REMAIN NORTH OF EC FL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BUT MAY SEE
AN ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN SECTIONS. OVERNIGHT
MIN TEMPS AGAIN ON THE MILD SIDE...IN THE LOW/MID 60S.

PREVIOUS EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
FRI...MODELS INDICATING THAT THE DEEPEST MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SLOW ADVANCING FRONT REMAINS OVER NORTH FLORIDA. PAINTED HIGHEST
POP OVER NORTHERN AREAS WHERE BEST MOISTURE AND MID/UPPER LEVEL
VORTICITY AND JET DIVERGENCE ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR. HIGHS RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 60S NORTHERN PORTIONS OF LAKE AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES TO THE
UPPER 70S AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

SAT-MON...BOTH THE GFS AND CANADIAN LONG TERM INDICATING BETTER
MOISTURE AND INVERTED TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THAN THE
ECMWF LONG TERM. MOISTURE RIBBON SHIFTS INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA ENOUGH
TO KEEP SLIGHT TO CHANCE...20 TO 30 POP...THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING...THEN
STRATUS WITH IFR/MVFR CONDS OVERSPREADING THE AREA OVERNIGHT. BEST
CHANCE FOR LOWER VISIBILITIES IN FOG WILL BE OVER THE NORTH AND
INTERIOR LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER MORE WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG CONDS SEEM
LESS LIKELY DUE TO INCREASING SOUTHERLY BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS.

ANY STRATUS/FOG OVER THE AREA IN THE MORNING WILL LIFT AND BREAK UP
INTO LATE MORNING WITH VFR CONDS RETURNING FOR THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...

TONIGHT/WED...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OFFSHORE OF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST WILL VEER WINDS FROM THE E/SE TO S/SE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.
WINDS SPEEDS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 10-15 KNOTS WITH SEAS 3-5 FEET.
PATCHY FOG WILL LIKELY LINGER OFF OF THE VOLUSIA COAST INTO
TONIGHT.

THURS-SUN...SPECIFIC TIMINGS A LITTLE TRICKY THIS FAR OUT BUT
COASTAL WATERS WILL TRANSITION FROM A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT AROUND
10KT EARLY THURSDAY TO A STRONGER NORTHERLY COMPONENT AND INCREASING
SEAS BY FRIDAY AS FRONT PUSHES DOWN OVER THE WATERS. THE BOUNDARY
WILL STALL OUT SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND.
ANTICIPATE SCA HEADLINES NEEDED BY LATE WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGHS FOR MARCH 4TH AND 5TH:
RECORD HIGH
DAB 4-MAR  88 1953
MCO 4-MAR  88 1989
MLB 4-MAR  87 1982
VRB 4-MAR  89 2001

DAB 5-MAR  87 1985
MCO 5-MAR  90 1929
MLB 5-MAR  88 1982
VRB 5-MAR  89 2003

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  63  83  63  84 /  10  10  10  10
MCO  64  87  65  88 /  10  10  10  10
MLB  66  83  66  85 /  10  10  10  10
VRB  65  85  66  85 /  10  10  10  10
LEE  63  86  66  85 /  10  10  10  10
SFB  64  86  65  86 /  10  10  10  10
ORL  65  87  66  85 /  10  10  10  10
FPR  65  85  65  86 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...WEITLICH
LONG TERM/IMPACT WEATHER....GLITTO




000
FXUS62 KMLB 032026
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
326 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT/WED...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OFFSHORE OF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD INTO TOMORROW WITH RIDGE AXIS BUILDING
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW LOW LEVEL ONSHORE WINDS TO BECOME
SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE INTO TONIGHT. MAIN CONCERN WILL CONTINUE TO
BE FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA AND HAVE KEPT A MENTION OF
PATCHY FOG TO AREAS OF FOG IN FOR TONIGHT. HOWEVER WITH ELEVATED
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS OVERNIGHT...WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG COVERAGE SEEM
LESS LIKELY. LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THOUGH
IN CASE ANY DENSE FOG ADVISORIES ARE NEEDED. CLOUD BANDS OVER THE
ATLANTIC GENERATING ISO LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER THE ATLANTIC. MAY SEE SOME
CONTINUED SPRINKLES MOVE ONSHORE ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE CAPE IN
THE EVENING.

ANY STRATUS/FOG OVER THE REGION IN THE MORNING WILL MIX OUT BY LATE
MORNING WITH WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TOMORROW AFT. HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW-MID 80S...WITH UPPER 80S POSSIBLE OVER THE
INTERIOR. ORLANDO IS FORECAST TO COME CLOSE TO ITS RECORD HIGH OF
88 DEGREES TOMORROW (SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW).

THU...WARM DAY AGAIN. TEMPS AGAIN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW COMPONENT IN LOW LEVELS AND CONTINUED INFLUENCE FROM
RIDGING ALOFT. DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM CLIMBING INTO
THE MID/UPPER 80S OVER THE INTERIOR AND JUST A FEW DEGREES LOWER AT
TEH COAST. MOISTURE WILL BE CONFINED TO THE LOWEST LEVELS WITH DRY
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE MID LEVELS SO JUST ANTICIPATING SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CLOUDS BUT NO MENTIONABLE POPS AT THIS TIME.

THU NIGHT...RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO RETREAT A LITTLE SOUTHWARD AHEAD OF
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. LATEST MODEL RUNS SUGGEST MENTIONABLE POPS WILL
MAINLY REMAIN NORTH OF EC FL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BUT MAY SEE
AN ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN SECTIONS. OVERNIGHT
MIN TEMPS AGAIN ON THE MILD SIDE...IN THE LOW/MID 60S.

PREVIOUS EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
FRI...MODELS INDICATING THAT THE DEEPEST MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SLOW ADVANCING FRONT REMAINS OVER NORTH FLORIDA. PAINTED HIGHEST
POP OVER NORTHERN AREAS WHERE BEST MOISTURE AND MID/UPPER LEVEL
VORTICITY AND JET DIVERGENCE ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR. HIGHS RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 60S NORTHERN PORTIONS OF LAKE AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES TO THE
UPPER 70S AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

SAT-MON...BOTH THE GFS AND CANADIAN LONG TERM INDICATING BETTER
MOISTURE AND INVERTED TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THAN THE
ECMWF LONG TERM. MOISTURE RIBBON SHIFTS INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA ENOUGH
TO KEEP SLIGHT TO CHANCE...20 TO 30 POP...THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING...THEN
STRATUS WITH IFR/MVFR CONDS OVERSPREADING THE AREA OVERNIGHT. BEST
CHANCE FOR LOWER VISIBILITIES IN FOG WILL BE OVER THE NORTH AND
INTERIOR LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER MORE WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG CONDS SEEM
LESS LIKELY DUE TO INCREASING SOUTHERLY BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS.

ANY STRATUS/FOG OVER THE AREA IN THE MORNING WILL LIFT AND BREAK UP
INTO LATE MORNING WITH VFR CONDS RETURNING FOR THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...

TONIGHT/WED...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OFFSHORE OF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST WILL VEER WINDS FROM THE E/SE TO S/SE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.
WINDS SPEEDS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 10-15 KNOTS WITH SEAS 3-5 FEET.
PATCHY FOG WILL LIKELY LINGER OFF OF THE VOLUSIA COAST INTO
TONIGHT.

THURS-SUN...SPECIFIC TIMINGS A LITTLE TRICKY THIS FAR OUT BUT
COASTAL WATERS WILL TRANSITION FROM A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT AROUND
10KT EARLY THURSDAY TO A STRONGER NORTHERLY COMPONENT AND INCREASING
SEAS BY FRIDAY AS FRONT PUSHES DOWN OVER THE WATERS. THE BOUNDARY
WILL STALL OUT SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND.
ANTICIPATE SCA HEADLINES NEEDED BY LATE WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGHS FOR MARCH 4TH AND 5TH:
RECORD HIGH
DAB 4-MAR  88 1953
MCO 4-MAR  88 1989
MLB 4-MAR  87 1982
VRB 4-MAR  89 2001

DAB 5-MAR  87 1985
MCO 5-MAR  90 1929
MLB 5-MAR  88 1982
VRB 5-MAR  89 2003

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  63  83  63  84 /  10  10  10  10
MCO  64  87  65  88 /  10  10  10  10
MLB  66  83  66  85 /  10  10  10  10
VRB  65  85  66  85 /  10  10  10  10
LEE  63  86  66  85 /  10  10  10  10
SFB  64  86  65  86 /  10  10  10  10
ORL  65  87  66  85 /  10  10  10  10
FPR  65  85  65  86 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...WEITLICH
LONG TERM/IMPACT WEATHER....GLITTO





000
FXUS62 KMLB 031506
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1005 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING AREA OF LOW CLOUDS AND
PATCHY DENSE FOG LINGERING ALONG COASTAL SECTIONS OF VOLUSIA AND
BREVARD COUNTIES AS WELL AS INLAND THROUGH ORANGE...NORTHERN
OSCEOLA AND SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTIES. STRATUS WILL BREAK UP INTO
LATE MORNING WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND THEREFORE HAVE ALLOWED DENSE
FOG ADVISORY TO EXPIRE. HOWEVER MAY SEE FOG CONTINUE TO LINGER
ALONG THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND BEACHES FROM MELBOURNE NORTHWARD
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WHERE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE.

ONSHORE FLOW IS LEADING TO A FEW CONVERGENCE INDUCED CLOUD BANDS
OVER THE WATERS WHICH ARE PRODUCING ISO LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE
WATERS. WHILE A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS MAY BE ABLE TO REACH THE
COAST THIS MORNING...SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE SEA BREEZE IN THE AFT
WILL WEAKEN ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY AS IT NEARS THE COAST. WILL
THEREFORE KEEP RAIN CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST OVER LAND.

HIGHS STILL FORECAST TO GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID-UPPER 70S
OVER COASTAL SECTIONS NORTH OF THE CAPE TO LOW 80S SRN AREAS AND
OVER THE INTERIOR.

&&

.AVIATION...ANY LINGERING IFR CONDS IN STRATUS WILL RAPIDLY
IMPROVE TO VFR BY NOON AS DAYTIME HEATING MIXES OUT THIS LOWER
CLOUD COVER AND PATCHY FOG. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS INCREASE OUT OF
THE SOUTH TONIGHT WHICH STILL MAY LEAD TO LOW CIGS IN STRATUS BUT
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG CONDS LOOK LESS LIKELY.


&&

.MARINE...AREAS OF FOG WILL LIKELY LINGER OVER THE NEARSHORE
WATERS OF VOLUSIA AND BREVARD COUNTIES THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BUT
SHOULD ERODE THEREAFTER. (PREVIOUS DISCUSSION) TODAY...E WINDS
NEAR 10 KNOTS WILL VEER TO THE ESE THIS AFTERNOON AND SE TONIGHT.
A LINGERING EAST SWELL IS FORECAST FROM 3-4 FT NEAR SHORE TO 4-5
FT OFFSHORE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015/

TONIGHT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH FARTHER OFFSHORE ACROSS THE
WRN ATLC WITH INCREASING LOW LVL SE/S FLOW OVERNIGHT. DRYING IN THE
MID TO UPPER LEVELS WILL KEEP SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR.
SHOULD SEE SOME FOG AND STRATUS REDEVELOP AGAIN OVERNIGHT. LOWS IN
THE 60S.

WED-THU...WARM AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE AS SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA MAINTAINS WARM SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
LOW LEVEL FLOW. THE LOW AND MID 80S HIGHS FORECAST EACH DAY ARE
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE THE CLIMATE NORMALS OF MID 70S. NO PRECIP
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST MAY BE
CLOSE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A FEW LATE AFTERNOON SHOWERS IN NORTHEAST
LAKE AND NORTHWEST VOLUSIA COUNTIES.

THU NIGHT...FRONT DRAWS CLOSER WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF OVERNIGHT
SHOWERS MAINLY OVER VOLUSIA AND NORTH LAKE COUNTIES. LOWS FRI
MORNING FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTHERN VOLUSIA AND
NORTHERN LAKE COUNTIES TO THE MID 60S SOUTH BREVARD AND OSCEOLA
COUNTIES SOUTH.

FRI...MODELS INDICATING THAT THE DEEPEST MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SLOW ADVANCING FRONT REMAINS OVER NORTH FLORIDA. PAINTED HIGHEST
POP OVER NORTHERN AREAS WHERE BEST MOISTURE AND MID/UPPER LEVEL
VORTICITY AND JET DIVERGENCE ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR. HIGHS RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 60S NORTHERN PORTIONS OF LAKE AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES TO THE
UPPER 70S AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

SAT-MON...BOTH THE GFS AND CANADIAN LONG TERM INDICATING BETTER
MOISTURE AND INVERTED TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THAN THE
ECMWF LONG TERM. MOISTURE RIBBON SHIFTS INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA ENOUGH
TO KEEP SLIGHT TO CHANCE...20 TO 30 POP...THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...MORNING FOG/STRATUS IN THE IFR/LIFR CATEGORY WILL AFFECT
CSTL TERMINALS AT TIMES FROM KDAB-KFPR AND SHOULD ALSO SEE INTERIOR
TERMINALS WITH STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AND FOG DEVELOPING THROUGH
SUNRISE. FOG/STRATUS SHOULD NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD AS YESTERDAY
MORNING AND SHOULD LIFT INTO MID MORNING. VFR CONDS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.


&&

.MARINE...E WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS WILL VEER TO THE ESE THIS AFTERNOON
AND SE TONIGHT. A LINGERING EAST SWELL IS FORECAST FROM 3-4 FT NEAR
SHORE TO 4-5 FT OFFSHORE.

WED-THU...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS
REMAINS OVERTOP OF THE AREA. WINDS INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND
SEAS TO 5 FEET WELL OFFSHORE THU. THU NIGHT-SUN...EASTERLY WINDS TO
15 KNOTS THROUGH SAT THEN THE FORECAST BECOMES UNCLEAR WITH THE GFS
AND CANADIAN DEVELOPING AN INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE ATLANTIC WHILE
THE ECMWF DOES NOT. LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.


&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGHS FOR WEDNESDAY MARCH 4TH:
         RECORD HIGH
DAB 4-MAR  88 1953
MCO 4-MAR  88 1989
MLB 4-MAR  87 1982
VRB 4-MAR  89 2001

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR FLAGLER
     BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM-VOLUSIA-
     BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...WEITLICH
LONG TERM/IMPACT WEATHER....GLITTO




000
FXUS62 KMLB 031506
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1005 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING AREA OF LOW CLOUDS AND
PATCHY DENSE FOG LINGERING ALONG COASTAL SECTIONS OF VOLUSIA AND
BREVARD COUNTIES AS WELL AS INLAND THROUGH ORANGE...NORTHERN
OSCEOLA AND SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTIES. STRATUS WILL BREAK UP INTO
LATE MORNING WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND THEREFORE HAVE ALLOWED DENSE
FOG ADVISORY TO EXPIRE. HOWEVER MAY SEE FOG CONTINUE TO LINGER
ALONG THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND BEACHES FROM MELBOURNE NORTHWARD
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WHERE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE.

ONSHORE FLOW IS LEADING TO A FEW CONVERGENCE INDUCED CLOUD BANDS
OVER THE WATERS WHICH ARE PRODUCING ISO LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE
WATERS. WHILE A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS MAY BE ABLE TO REACH THE
COAST THIS MORNING...SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE SEA BREEZE IN THE AFT
WILL WEAKEN ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY AS IT NEARS THE COAST. WILL
THEREFORE KEEP RAIN CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST OVER LAND.

HIGHS STILL FORECAST TO GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID-UPPER 70S
OVER COASTAL SECTIONS NORTH OF THE CAPE TO LOW 80S SRN AREAS AND
OVER THE INTERIOR.

&&

.AVIATION...ANY LINGERING IFR CONDS IN STRATUS WILL RAPIDLY
IMPROVE TO VFR BY NOON AS DAYTIME HEATING MIXES OUT THIS LOWER
CLOUD COVER AND PATCHY FOG. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS INCREASE OUT OF
THE SOUTH TONIGHT WHICH STILL MAY LEAD TO LOW CIGS IN STRATUS BUT
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG CONDS LOOK LESS LIKELY.


&&

.MARINE...AREAS OF FOG WILL LIKELY LINGER OVER THE NEARSHORE
WATERS OF VOLUSIA AND BREVARD COUNTIES THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BUT
SHOULD ERODE THEREAFTER. (PREVIOUS DISCUSSION) TODAY...E WINDS
NEAR 10 KNOTS WILL VEER TO THE ESE THIS AFTERNOON AND SE TONIGHT.
A LINGERING EAST SWELL IS FORECAST FROM 3-4 FT NEAR SHORE TO 4-5
FT OFFSHORE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015/

TONIGHT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH FARTHER OFFSHORE ACROSS THE
WRN ATLC WITH INCREASING LOW LVL SE/S FLOW OVERNIGHT. DRYING IN THE
MID TO UPPER LEVELS WILL KEEP SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR.
SHOULD SEE SOME FOG AND STRATUS REDEVELOP AGAIN OVERNIGHT. LOWS IN
THE 60S.

WED-THU...WARM AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE AS SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA MAINTAINS WARM SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
LOW LEVEL FLOW. THE LOW AND MID 80S HIGHS FORECAST EACH DAY ARE
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE THE CLIMATE NORMALS OF MID 70S. NO PRECIP
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST MAY BE
CLOSE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A FEW LATE AFTERNOON SHOWERS IN NORTHEAST
LAKE AND NORTHWEST VOLUSIA COUNTIES.

THU NIGHT...FRONT DRAWS CLOSER WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF OVERNIGHT
SHOWERS MAINLY OVER VOLUSIA AND NORTH LAKE COUNTIES. LOWS FRI
MORNING FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTHERN VOLUSIA AND
NORTHERN LAKE COUNTIES TO THE MID 60S SOUTH BREVARD AND OSCEOLA
COUNTIES SOUTH.

FRI...MODELS INDICATING THAT THE DEEPEST MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SLOW ADVANCING FRONT REMAINS OVER NORTH FLORIDA. PAINTED HIGHEST
POP OVER NORTHERN AREAS WHERE BEST MOISTURE AND MID/UPPER LEVEL
VORTICITY AND JET DIVERGENCE ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR. HIGHS RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 60S NORTHERN PORTIONS OF LAKE AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES TO THE
UPPER 70S AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

SAT-MON...BOTH THE GFS AND CANADIAN LONG TERM INDICATING BETTER
MOISTURE AND INVERTED TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THAN THE
ECMWF LONG TERM. MOISTURE RIBBON SHIFTS INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA ENOUGH
TO KEEP SLIGHT TO CHANCE...20 TO 30 POP...THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...MORNING FOG/STRATUS IN THE IFR/LIFR CATEGORY WILL AFFECT
CSTL TERMINALS AT TIMES FROM KDAB-KFPR AND SHOULD ALSO SEE INTERIOR
TERMINALS WITH STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AND FOG DEVELOPING THROUGH
SUNRISE. FOG/STRATUS SHOULD NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD AS YESTERDAY
MORNING AND SHOULD LIFT INTO MID MORNING. VFR CONDS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.


&&

.MARINE...E WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS WILL VEER TO THE ESE THIS AFTERNOON
AND SE TONIGHT. A LINGERING EAST SWELL IS FORECAST FROM 3-4 FT NEAR
SHORE TO 4-5 FT OFFSHORE.

WED-THU...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS
REMAINS OVERTOP OF THE AREA. WINDS INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND
SEAS TO 5 FEET WELL OFFSHORE THU. THU NIGHT-SUN...EASTERLY WINDS TO
15 KNOTS THROUGH SAT THEN THE FORECAST BECOMES UNCLEAR WITH THE GFS
AND CANADIAN DEVELOPING AN INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE ATLANTIC WHILE
THE ECMWF DOES NOT. LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.


&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGHS FOR WEDNESDAY MARCH 4TH:
         RECORD HIGH
DAB 4-MAR  88 1953
MCO 4-MAR  88 1989
MLB 4-MAR  87 1982
VRB 4-MAR  89 2001

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR FLAGLER
     BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM-VOLUSIA-
     BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...WEITLICH
LONG TERM/IMPACT WEATHER....GLITTO





000
FXUS62 KMLB 031506
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1005 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING AREA OF LOW CLOUDS AND
PATCHY DENSE FOG LINGERING ALONG COASTAL SECTIONS OF VOLUSIA AND
BREVARD COUNTIES AS WELL AS INLAND THROUGH ORANGE...NORTHERN
OSCEOLA AND SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTIES. STRATUS WILL BREAK UP INTO
LATE MORNING WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND THEREFORE HAVE ALLOWED DENSE
FOG ADVISORY TO EXPIRE. HOWEVER MAY SEE FOG CONTINUE TO LINGER
ALONG THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND BEACHES FROM MELBOURNE NORTHWARD
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WHERE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE.

ONSHORE FLOW IS LEADING TO A FEW CONVERGENCE INDUCED CLOUD BANDS
OVER THE WATERS WHICH ARE PRODUCING ISO LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE
WATERS. WHILE A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS MAY BE ABLE TO REACH THE
COAST THIS MORNING...SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE SEA BREEZE IN THE AFT
WILL WEAKEN ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY AS IT NEARS THE COAST. WILL
THEREFORE KEEP RAIN CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST OVER LAND.

HIGHS STILL FORECAST TO GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID-UPPER 70S
OVER COASTAL SECTIONS NORTH OF THE CAPE TO LOW 80S SRN AREAS AND
OVER THE INTERIOR.

&&

.AVIATION...ANY LINGERING IFR CONDS IN STRATUS WILL RAPIDLY
IMPROVE TO VFR BY NOON AS DAYTIME HEATING MIXES OUT THIS LOWER
CLOUD COVER AND PATCHY FOG. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS INCREASE OUT OF
THE SOUTH TONIGHT WHICH STILL MAY LEAD TO LOW CIGS IN STRATUS BUT
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG CONDS LOOK LESS LIKELY.


&&

.MARINE...AREAS OF FOG WILL LIKELY LINGER OVER THE NEARSHORE
WATERS OF VOLUSIA AND BREVARD COUNTIES THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BUT
SHOULD ERODE THEREAFTER. (PREVIOUS DISCUSSION) TODAY...E WINDS
NEAR 10 KNOTS WILL VEER TO THE ESE THIS AFTERNOON AND SE TONIGHT.
A LINGERING EAST SWELL IS FORECAST FROM 3-4 FT NEAR SHORE TO 4-5
FT OFFSHORE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015/

TONIGHT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH FARTHER OFFSHORE ACROSS THE
WRN ATLC WITH INCREASING LOW LVL SE/S FLOW OVERNIGHT. DRYING IN THE
MID TO UPPER LEVELS WILL KEEP SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR.
SHOULD SEE SOME FOG AND STRATUS REDEVELOP AGAIN OVERNIGHT. LOWS IN
THE 60S.

WED-THU...WARM AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE AS SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA MAINTAINS WARM SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
LOW LEVEL FLOW. THE LOW AND MID 80S HIGHS FORECAST EACH DAY ARE
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE THE CLIMATE NORMALS OF MID 70S. NO PRECIP
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST MAY BE
CLOSE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A FEW LATE AFTERNOON SHOWERS IN NORTHEAST
LAKE AND NORTHWEST VOLUSIA COUNTIES.

THU NIGHT...FRONT DRAWS CLOSER WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF OVERNIGHT
SHOWERS MAINLY OVER VOLUSIA AND NORTH LAKE COUNTIES. LOWS FRI
MORNING FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTHERN VOLUSIA AND
NORTHERN LAKE COUNTIES TO THE MID 60S SOUTH BREVARD AND OSCEOLA
COUNTIES SOUTH.

FRI...MODELS INDICATING THAT THE DEEPEST MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SLOW ADVANCING FRONT REMAINS OVER NORTH FLORIDA. PAINTED HIGHEST
POP OVER NORTHERN AREAS WHERE BEST MOISTURE AND MID/UPPER LEVEL
VORTICITY AND JET DIVERGENCE ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR. HIGHS RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 60S NORTHERN PORTIONS OF LAKE AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES TO THE
UPPER 70S AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

SAT-MON...BOTH THE GFS AND CANADIAN LONG TERM INDICATING BETTER
MOISTURE AND INVERTED TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THAN THE
ECMWF LONG TERM. MOISTURE RIBBON SHIFTS INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA ENOUGH
TO KEEP SLIGHT TO CHANCE...20 TO 30 POP...THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...MORNING FOG/STRATUS IN THE IFR/LIFR CATEGORY WILL AFFECT
CSTL TERMINALS AT TIMES FROM KDAB-KFPR AND SHOULD ALSO SEE INTERIOR
TERMINALS WITH STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AND FOG DEVELOPING THROUGH
SUNRISE. FOG/STRATUS SHOULD NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD AS YESTERDAY
MORNING AND SHOULD LIFT INTO MID MORNING. VFR CONDS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.


&&

.MARINE...E WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS WILL VEER TO THE ESE THIS AFTERNOON
AND SE TONIGHT. A LINGERING EAST SWELL IS FORECAST FROM 3-4 FT NEAR
SHORE TO 4-5 FT OFFSHORE.

WED-THU...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS
REMAINS OVERTOP OF THE AREA. WINDS INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND
SEAS TO 5 FEET WELL OFFSHORE THU. THU NIGHT-SUN...EASTERLY WINDS TO
15 KNOTS THROUGH SAT THEN THE FORECAST BECOMES UNCLEAR WITH THE GFS
AND CANADIAN DEVELOPING AN INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE ATLANTIC WHILE
THE ECMWF DOES NOT. LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.


&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGHS FOR WEDNESDAY MARCH 4TH:
         RECORD HIGH
DAB 4-MAR  88 1953
MCO 4-MAR  88 1989
MLB 4-MAR  87 1982
VRB 4-MAR  89 2001

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR FLAGLER
     BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM-VOLUSIA-
     BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...WEITLICH
LONG TERM/IMPACT WEATHER....GLITTO




000
FXUS62 KMLB 031506
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1005 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING AREA OF LOW CLOUDS AND
PATCHY DENSE FOG LINGERING ALONG COASTAL SECTIONS OF VOLUSIA AND
BREVARD COUNTIES AS WELL AS INLAND THROUGH ORANGE...NORTHERN
OSCEOLA AND SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTIES. STRATUS WILL BREAK UP INTO
LATE MORNING WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND THEREFORE HAVE ALLOWED DENSE
FOG ADVISORY TO EXPIRE. HOWEVER MAY SEE FOG CONTINUE TO LINGER
ALONG THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND BEACHES FROM MELBOURNE NORTHWARD
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WHERE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE.

ONSHORE FLOW IS LEADING TO A FEW CONVERGENCE INDUCED CLOUD BANDS
OVER THE WATERS WHICH ARE PRODUCING ISO LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE
WATERS. WHILE A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS MAY BE ABLE TO REACH THE
COAST THIS MORNING...SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE SEA BREEZE IN THE AFT
WILL WEAKEN ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY AS IT NEARS THE COAST. WILL
THEREFORE KEEP RAIN CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST OVER LAND.

HIGHS STILL FORECAST TO GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID-UPPER 70S
OVER COASTAL SECTIONS NORTH OF THE CAPE TO LOW 80S SRN AREAS AND
OVER THE INTERIOR.

&&

.AVIATION...ANY LINGERING IFR CONDS IN STRATUS WILL RAPIDLY
IMPROVE TO VFR BY NOON AS DAYTIME HEATING MIXES OUT THIS LOWER
CLOUD COVER AND PATCHY FOG. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS INCREASE OUT OF
THE SOUTH TONIGHT WHICH STILL MAY LEAD TO LOW CIGS IN STRATUS BUT
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG CONDS LOOK LESS LIKELY.


&&

.MARINE...AREAS OF FOG WILL LIKELY LINGER OVER THE NEARSHORE
WATERS OF VOLUSIA AND BREVARD COUNTIES THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BUT
SHOULD ERODE THEREAFTER. (PREVIOUS DISCUSSION) TODAY...E WINDS
NEAR 10 KNOTS WILL VEER TO THE ESE THIS AFTERNOON AND SE TONIGHT.
A LINGERING EAST SWELL IS FORECAST FROM 3-4 FT NEAR SHORE TO 4-5
FT OFFSHORE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015/

TONIGHT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH FARTHER OFFSHORE ACROSS THE
WRN ATLC WITH INCREASING LOW LVL SE/S FLOW OVERNIGHT. DRYING IN THE
MID TO UPPER LEVELS WILL KEEP SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR.
SHOULD SEE SOME FOG AND STRATUS REDEVELOP AGAIN OVERNIGHT. LOWS IN
THE 60S.

WED-THU...WARM AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE AS SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA MAINTAINS WARM SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
LOW LEVEL FLOW. THE LOW AND MID 80S HIGHS FORECAST EACH DAY ARE
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE THE CLIMATE NORMALS OF MID 70S. NO PRECIP
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST MAY BE
CLOSE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A FEW LATE AFTERNOON SHOWERS IN NORTHEAST
LAKE AND NORTHWEST VOLUSIA COUNTIES.

THU NIGHT...FRONT DRAWS CLOSER WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF OVERNIGHT
SHOWERS MAINLY OVER VOLUSIA AND NORTH LAKE COUNTIES. LOWS FRI
MORNING FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTHERN VOLUSIA AND
NORTHERN LAKE COUNTIES TO THE MID 60S SOUTH BREVARD AND OSCEOLA
COUNTIES SOUTH.

FRI...MODELS INDICATING THAT THE DEEPEST MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SLOW ADVANCING FRONT REMAINS OVER NORTH FLORIDA. PAINTED HIGHEST
POP OVER NORTHERN AREAS WHERE BEST MOISTURE AND MID/UPPER LEVEL
VORTICITY AND JET DIVERGENCE ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR. HIGHS RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 60S NORTHERN PORTIONS OF LAKE AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES TO THE
UPPER 70S AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

SAT-MON...BOTH THE GFS AND CANADIAN LONG TERM INDICATING BETTER
MOISTURE AND INVERTED TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THAN THE
ECMWF LONG TERM. MOISTURE RIBBON SHIFTS INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA ENOUGH
TO KEEP SLIGHT TO CHANCE...20 TO 30 POP...THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...MORNING FOG/STRATUS IN THE IFR/LIFR CATEGORY WILL AFFECT
CSTL TERMINALS AT TIMES FROM KDAB-KFPR AND SHOULD ALSO SEE INTERIOR
TERMINALS WITH STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AND FOG DEVELOPING THROUGH
SUNRISE. FOG/STRATUS SHOULD NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD AS YESTERDAY
MORNING AND SHOULD LIFT INTO MID MORNING. VFR CONDS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.


&&

.MARINE...E WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS WILL VEER TO THE ESE THIS AFTERNOON
AND SE TONIGHT. A LINGERING EAST SWELL IS FORECAST FROM 3-4 FT NEAR
SHORE TO 4-5 FT OFFSHORE.

WED-THU...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS
REMAINS OVERTOP OF THE AREA. WINDS INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND
SEAS TO 5 FEET WELL OFFSHORE THU. THU NIGHT-SUN...EASTERLY WINDS TO
15 KNOTS THROUGH SAT THEN THE FORECAST BECOMES UNCLEAR WITH THE GFS
AND CANADIAN DEVELOPING AN INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE ATLANTIC WHILE
THE ECMWF DOES NOT. LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.


&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGHS FOR WEDNESDAY MARCH 4TH:
         RECORD HIGH
DAB 4-MAR  88 1953
MCO 4-MAR  88 1989
MLB 4-MAR  87 1982
VRB 4-MAR  89 2001

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR FLAGLER
     BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM-VOLUSIA-
     BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...WEITLICH
LONG TERM/IMPACT WEATHER....GLITTO





000
FXUS62 KMLB 030900
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
400 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...LOCALLY DENSE FOG AGAIN EARLY THIS MORNING...
...NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE INTERIOR ON WEDNESDAY...

.CURRENTLY...HAVE ADJUSTED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY AREA TO INCLUDE
MOST OF E CENTRAL FL EXCEPT ST LUCIE AND MARTIN COUNTIES WHERE FOG
WILL BE MORE PATCHY THIS MORNING. VISIBILITIES WILL BE LOCALLY
REDUCED TO A QUARTER MILE THROUGH 9 AM THIS MORNING.

TODAY...EXPECTING THE MORNING FOG TO BURN OFF THROUGH MID MORNING
WITH ESE FLOW LVL FLOW INCREASING TO NEAR 10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SFC HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING EASTWARD FROM THE MID ATLC COAST. SHOULD
SEE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MID-UPPER 70S N COASTAL TO THE LOWER 80S SRN AREAS AND OVER THE
INTERIOR. AN EAST SWELL WILL PRODUCE A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK AT
E CENTRAL FL BEACHES TODAY.

TONIGHT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH FARTHER OFFSHORE ACROSS THE
WRN ATLC WITH INCREASING LOW LVL SE/S FLOW OVERNIGHT. DRYING IN THE
MID TO UPPER LEVELS WILL KEEP SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR.
SHOULD SEE SOME FOG AND STRATUS REDEVELOP AGAIN OVERNIGHT. LOWS IN
THE 60S.

WED-THU...WARM AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE AS SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA MAINTAINS WARM SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
LOW LEVEL FLOW. THE LOW AND MID 80S HIGHS FORECAST EACH DAY ARE
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE THE CLIMATE NORMALS OF MID 70S. NO PRECIP
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST MAY BE
CLOSE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A FEW LATE AFTERNOON SHOWERS IN NORTHEAST
LAKE AND NORTHWEST VOLUSIA COUNTIES.

THU NIGHT...FRONT DRAWS CLOSER WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF OVERNIGHT
SHOWERS MAINLY OVER VOLUSIA AND NORTH LAKE COUNTIES. LOWS FRI
MORNING FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTHERN VOLUSIA AND
NORTHERN LAKE COUNTIES TO THE MID 60S SOUTH BREVARD AND OSCEOLA
COUNTIES SOUTH.

FRI...MODELS INDICATING THAT THE DEEPEST MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SLOW ADVANCING FRONT REMAINS OVER NORTH FLORIDA. PAINTED HIGHEST
POP OVER NORTHERN AREAS WHERE BEST MOISTURE AND MID/UPPER LEVEL
VORTICITY AND JET DIVERGENCE ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR. HIGHS RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 60S NORTHERN PORTIONS OF LAKE AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES TO THE
UPPER 70S AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

SAT-MON...BOTH THE GFS AND CANADIAN LONG TERM INDICATING BETTER
MOISTURE AND INVERTED TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THAN THE
ECMWF LONG TERM. MOISTURE RIBBON SHIFTS INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA ENOUGH
TO KEEP SLIGHT TO CHANCE...20 TO 30 POP...THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...MORNING FOG/STRATUS IN THE IFR/LIFR CATEGORY WILL AFFECT
CSTL TERMINALS AT TIMES FROM KDAB-KFPR AND SHOULD ALSO SEE INTERIOR
TERMINALS WITH STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AND FOG DEVELOPING THROUGH
SUNRISE. FOG/STRATUS SHOULD NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD AS YESTERDAY
MORNING AND SHOULD LIFT INTO MID MORNING. VFR CONDS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.


&&

.MARINE...E WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS WILL VEER TO THE ESE THIS AFTERNOON
AND SE TONIGHT. A LINGERING EAST SWELL IS FORECAST FROM 3-4 FT NEAR
SHORE TO 4-5 FT OFFSHORE.

WED-THU...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS
REMAINS OVERTOP OF THE AREA. WINDS INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND
SEAS TO 5 FEET WELL OFFSHORE THU. THU NIGHT-SUN...EASTERLY WINDS TO
15 KNOTS THROUGH SAT THEN THE FORECAST BECOMES UNCLEAR WITH THE GFS
AND CANADIAN DEVELOPING AN INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE ATLANTIC WHILE
THE ECMWF DOES NOT. LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.


&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGHS FOR WEDNESDAY MARCH 4TH:
         RECORD HIGH
DAB 4-MAR  88 1953
MCO 4-MAR  88 1989
MLB 4-MAR  87 1982
VRB 4-MAR  89 2001

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  77  60  85  63 /  10  10  10  10
MCO  82  63  88  66 /  10  10   0  10
MLB  80  65  82  68 /  10  10   0   0
VRB  80  64  84  67 /   0  10   0   0
LEE  81  63  87  67 /  10  10  10  10
SFB  81  63  87  65 /  10  10  10  10
ORL  82  63  87  66 /  10  10   0  10
FPR  81  65  85  67 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR COASTAL
     VOLUSIA COUNTY-INDIAN RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA COUNTY-NORTHERN
     BREVARD COUNTY-NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-
     OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-SOUTHERN LAKE
     COUNTY.

AM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR FLAGLER BEACH
     TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...VOLKMER
LONG TERM....WIMMER




000
FXUS62 KMLB 030900
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
400 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...LOCALLY DENSE FOG AGAIN EARLY THIS MORNING...
...NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE INTERIOR ON WEDNESDAY...

.CURRENTLY...HAVE ADJUSTED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY AREA TO INCLUDE
MOST OF E CENTRAL FL EXCEPT ST LUCIE AND MARTIN COUNTIES WHERE FOG
WILL BE MORE PATCHY THIS MORNING. VISIBILITIES WILL BE LOCALLY
REDUCED TO A QUARTER MILE THROUGH 9 AM THIS MORNING.

TODAY...EXPECTING THE MORNING FOG TO BURN OFF THROUGH MID MORNING
WITH ESE FLOW LVL FLOW INCREASING TO NEAR 10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SFC HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING EASTWARD FROM THE MID ATLC COAST. SHOULD
SEE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MID-UPPER 70S N COASTAL TO THE LOWER 80S SRN AREAS AND OVER THE
INTERIOR. AN EAST SWELL WILL PRODUCE A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK AT
E CENTRAL FL BEACHES TODAY.

TONIGHT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH FARTHER OFFSHORE ACROSS THE
WRN ATLC WITH INCREASING LOW LVL SE/S FLOW OVERNIGHT. DRYING IN THE
MID TO UPPER LEVELS WILL KEEP SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR.
SHOULD SEE SOME FOG AND STRATUS REDEVELOP AGAIN OVERNIGHT. LOWS IN
THE 60S.

WED-THU...WARM AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE AS SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA MAINTAINS WARM SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
LOW LEVEL FLOW. THE LOW AND MID 80S HIGHS FORECAST EACH DAY ARE
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE THE CLIMATE NORMALS OF MID 70S. NO PRECIP
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST MAY BE
CLOSE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A FEW LATE AFTERNOON SHOWERS IN NORTHEAST
LAKE AND NORTHWEST VOLUSIA COUNTIES.

THU NIGHT...FRONT DRAWS CLOSER WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF OVERNIGHT
SHOWERS MAINLY OVER VOLUSIA AND NORTH LAKE COUNTIES. LOWS FRI
MORNING FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTHERN VOLUSIA AND
NORTHERN LAKE COUNTIES TO THE MID 60S SOUTH BREVARD AND OSCEOLA
COUNTIES SOUTH.

FRI...MODELS INDICATING THAT THE DEEPEST MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SLOW ADVANCING FRONT REMAINS OVER NORTH FLORIDA. PAINTED HIGHEST
POP OVER NORTHERN AREAS WHERE BEST MOISTURE AND MID/UPPER LEVEL
VORTICITY AND JET DIVERGENCE ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR. HIGHS RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 60S NORTHERN PORTIONS OF LAKE AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES TO THE
UPPER 70S AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

SAT-MON...BOTH THE GFS AND CANADIAN LONG TERM INDICATING BETTER
MOISTURE AND INVERTED TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THAN THE
ECMWF LONG TERM. MOISTURE RIBBON SHIFTS INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA ENOUGH
TO KEEP SLIGHT TO CHANCE...20 TO 30 POP...THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...MORNING FOG/STRATUS IN THE IFR/LIFR CATEGORY WILL AFFECT
CSTL TERMINALS AT TIMES FROM KDAB-KFPR AND SHOULD ALSO SEE INTERIOR
TERMINALS WITH STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AND FOG DEVELOPING THROUGH
SUNRISE. FOG/STRATUS SHOULD NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD AS YESTERDAY
MORNING AND SHOULD LIFT INTO MID MORNING. VFR CONDS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.


&&

.MARINE...E WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS WILL VEER TO THE ESE THIS AFTERNOON
AND SE TONIGHT. A LINGERING EAST SWELL IS FORECAST FROM 3-4 FT NEAR
SHORE TO 4-5 FT OFFSHORE.

WED-THU...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS
REMAINS OVERTOP OF THE AREA. WINDS INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND
SEAS TO 5 FEET WELL OFFSHORE THU. THU NIGHT-SUN...EASTERLY WINDS TO
15 KNOTS THROUGH SAT THEN THE FORECAST BECOMES UNCLEAR WITH THE GFS
AND CANADIAN DEVELOPING AN INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE ATLANTIC WHILE
THE ECMWF DOES NOT. LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.


&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGHS FOR WEDNESDAY MARCH 4TH:
         RECORD HIGH
DAB 4-MAR  88 1953
MCO 4-MAR  88 1989
MLB 4-MAR  87 1982
VRB 4-MAR  89 2001

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  77  60  85  63 /  10  10  10  10
MCO  82  63  88  66 /  10  10   0  10
MLB  80  65  82  68 /  10  10   0   0
VRB  80  64  84  67 /   0  10   0   0
LEE  81  63  87  67 /  10  10  10  10
SFB  81  63  87  65 /  10  10  10  10
ORL  82  63  87  66 /  10  10   0  10
FPR  81  65  85  67 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR COASTAL
     VOLUSIA COUNTY-INDIAN RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA COUNTY-NORTHERN
     BREVARD COUNTY-NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-
     OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-SOUTHERN LAKE
     COUNTY.

AM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR FLAGLER BEACH
     TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...VOLKMER
LONG TERM....WIMMER





000
FXUS62 KMLB 030409 RRA
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
953 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...THE SEA FOG/STRATUS THAT HAS BEEN LURKING ALONG THE
COAST MOST OF THE DAY HAS OOZED BACK INTO THE COAST THIS EVENING
FROM FORT PIERCE NORTHWARDS. FOG IS JUST REACHING MOST OF THE
COASTAL TAF SITES...THOUGH CAMERAS HAVE SHOWN SOME DENSE FOG
RIGHT ALONG THE BEACH STARTING LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ONSHORE WIND
COMPONENT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH FOG INLAND THROUGH THE REST OF THE
EVENING WITH LOCALLY DENSE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

THE EVOLUTION OF THE INTERIOR AND FOG IS A LITTLE MORE INTERESTING.
SYNOPTIC FLOW TURNS LIGHT EASTERLY OVERNIGHT WITH STRONGER WINDS 5-
10KTS FROM OSCEOLA/BREVARD SOUTH AND NEARLY CALM FURTHER NORTH JUST
ABOVE THE SURFACE. THIS DOESN`T APPEAR TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
PREVENT SURFACE FLOW FROM DECOUPLING AND BECOMING CALM OR NEARLY SO
AS WE`RE ALREADY SEEING AT MANY LOCATIONS INLAND. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ALSO REMAINS HIGH WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S...THOUGH THERE
IS SOME PASSING CIRRUS ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE THE ADVECTION FOG
ALONG THE COAST IS EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE INTERIOR LATE
TONIGHT...EVEN IF IT DOESN`T...CONDITIONS ARE STILL FAVORABLE FOR
RADIATIONAL FOG DEVELOPMENT.

GIVEN THE CURRENT TRENDS...WILL BE LOOKING BE ISSUING A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY ALONG THE VOLUSIA-BREVARD-INDIAN RIVER COAST. FURTHER
EXPANSION MAY BE NEEDED OVERNIGHT IF ADDITIONAL FOG DEVELOPS AS
EXPECTED.

OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 6OS WITH A FEW UPPER 60S/LOW
70S ALONG THE ST LUCIE AND MARTIN COASTS.

&&

.AVIATION... FOG ALREADY AT...OR JUST EAST OF...COASTAL TAF SITES
FROM KOMN-KFPR WITH TEMPO LIFR CIGS/MVFR VSBYS AS BANK MOVES IN
THROUGH 04Z BECOMING PREVAILING THEREAFTER THROUGH 13Z/14Z. INLAND
SITES WILL SEE WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPING AFTER 04Z WITH PREVAILING
LIFR CONDITIONS AFTER 06Z EXPECTED...LIFTING AFTER 14Z. MOST
LOCATIONS WILL SEE A PERIOD BETWEEN 13Z-15Z TOMORROW WITH TEMPO IFR
CIGS/VSBYS BEFORE ALL AREAS BECOMING VFR AFTER 15Z. AFTN CU
DEVELOPMENT MAY BRING OCCASIONAL CIGS FL035-050.

&&

.MARINE...DENSE SEA FOG WILL REMAIN A NAVIGATIONAL HAZARD TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST NORTH OF ST LUCIE INLET.
WILL ALLOW ONGOING MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO CONTINUE INTO
TOMORROW MORNING.

OTHERWISE...WILL SEE EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW 5-10KTS VEERING MORE
EASTERLY OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH SPEEDS PICKING UP TO 10-15KTS
INTO THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET. SEAS 3-5FT
IN A PERSISTENT MODERATE SWELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  59  76  61  81 /  10  10  10  10
MCO  64  82  63  86 /   0  10  10  10
MLB  63  77  65  83 /   0  10  10  10
VRB  66  79  65  83 /  10  10  10  10
LEE  64  79  63  85 /  10  10  10  10
SFB  62  79  62  85 /  10  10  10  10
ORL  64  80  63  86 /  10  10  10  10
FPR  66  79  64  83 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR COASTAL VOLUSIA
     COUNTY-INDIAN RIVER-NORTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-SOUTHERN
     BREVARD COUNTY.

AM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR FLAGLER BEACH TO
     VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM-FLAGLER BEACH TO
     VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-SEBASTIAN INLET TO
     JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
     SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
     SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.

&&

$$

MOSES/BLOTTMAN





000
FXUS62 KMLB 030409 RRA
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
953 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...THE SEA FOG/STRATUS THAT HAS BEEN LURKING ALONG THE
COAST MOST OF THE DAY HAS OOZED BACK INTO THE COAST THIS EVENING
FROM FORT PIERCE NORTHWARDS. FOG IS JUST REACHING MOST OF THE
COASTAL TAF SITES...THOUGH CAMERAS HAVE SHOWN SOME DENSE FOG
RIGHT ALONG THE BEACH STARTING LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ONSHORE WIND
COMPONENT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH FOG INLAND THROUGH THE REST OF THE
EVENING WITH LOCALLY DENSE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

THE EVOLUTION OF THE INTERIOR AND FOG IS A LITTLE MORE INTERESTING.
SYNOPTIC FLOW TURNS LIGHT EASTERLY OVERNIGHT WITH STRONGER WINDS 5-
10KTS FROM OSCEOLA/BREVARD SOUTH AND NEARLY CALM FURTHER NORTH JUST
ABOVE THE SURFACE. THIS DOESN`T APPEAR TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
PREVENT SURFACE FLOW FROM DECOUPLING AND BECOMING CALM OR NEARLY SO
AS WE`RE ALREADY SEEING AT MANY LOCATIONS INLAND. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ALSO REMAINS HIGH WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S...THOUGH THERE
IS SOME PASSING CIRRUS ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE THE ADVECTION FOG
ALONG THE COAST IS EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE INTERIOR LATE
TONIGHT...EVEN IF IT DOESN`T...CONDITIONS ARE STILL FAVORABLE FOR
RADIATIONAL FOG DEVELOPMENT.

GIVEN THE CURRENT TRENDS...WILL BE LOOKING BE ISSUING A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY ALONG THE VOLUSIA-BREVARD-INDIAN RIVER COAST. FURTHER
EXPANSION MAY BE NEEDED OVERNIGHT IF ADDITIONAL FOG DEVELOPS AS
EXPECTED.

OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 6OS WITH A FEW UPPER 60S/LOW
70S ALONG THE ST LUCIE AND MARTIN COASTS.

&&

.AVIATION... FOG ALREADY AT...OR JUST EAST OF...COASTAL TAF SITES
FROM KOMN-KFPR WITH TEMPO LIFR CIGS/MVFR VSBYS AS BANK MOVES IN
THROUGH 04Z BECOMING PREVAILING THEREAFTER THROUGH 13Z/14Z. INLAND
SITES WILL SEE WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPING AFTER 04Z WITH PREVAILING
LIFR CONDITIONS AFTER 06Z EXPECTED...LIFTING AFTER 14Z. MOST
LOCATIONS WILL SEE A PERIOD BETWEEN 13Z-15Z TOMORROW WITH TEMPO IFR
CIGS/VSBYS BEFORE ALL AREAS BECOMING VFR AFTER 15Z. AFTN CU
DEVELOPMENT MAY BRING OCCASIONAL CIGS FL035-050.

&&

.MARINE...DENSE SEA FOG WILL REMAIN A NAVIGATIONAL HAZARD TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST NORTH OF ST LUCIE INLET.
WILL ALLOW ONGOING MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO CONTINUE INTO
TOMORROW MORNING.

OTHERWISE...WILL SEE EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW 5-10KTS VEERING MORE
EASTERLY OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH SPEEDS PICKING UP TO 10-15KTS
INTO THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET. SEAS 3-5FT
IN A PERSISTENT MODERATE SWELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  59  76  61  81 /  10  10  10  10
MCO  64  82  63  86 /   0  10  10  10
MLB  63  77  65  83 /   0  10  10  10
VRB  66  79  65  83 /  10  10  10  10
LEE  64  79  63  85 /  10  10  10  10
SFB  62  79  62  85 /  10  10  10  10
ORL  64  80  63  86 /  10  10  10  10
FPR  66  79  64  83 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR COASTAL VOLUSIA
     COUNTY-INDIAN RIVER-NORTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-SOUTHERN
     BREVARD COUNTY.

AM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR FLAGLER BEACH TO
     VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM-FLAGLER BEACH TO
     VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-SEBASTIAN INLET TO
     JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
     SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
     SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.

&&

$$

MOSES/BLOTTMAN





000
FXUS62 KMLB 030409 RRA
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
953 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...THE SEA FOG/STRATUS THAT HAS BEEN LURKING ALONG THE
COAST MOST OF THE DAY HAS OOZED BACK INTO THE COAST THIS EVENING
FROM FORT PIERCE NORTHWARDS. FOG IS JUST REACHING MOST OF THE
COASTAL TAF SITES...THOUGH CAMERAS HAVE SHOWN SOME DENSE FOG
RIGHT ALONG THE BEACH STARTING LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ONSHORE WIND
COMPONENT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH FOG INLAND THROUGH THE REST OF THE
EVENING WITH LOCALLY DENSE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

THE EVOLUTION OF THE INTERIOR AND FOG IS A LITTLE MORE INTERESTING.
SYNOPTIC FLOW TURNS LIGHT EASTERLY OVERNIGHT WITH STRONGER WINDS 5-
10KTS FROM OSCEOLA/BREVARD SOUTH AND NEARLY CALM FURTHER NORTH JUST
ABOVE THE SURFACE. THIS DOESN`T APPEAR TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
PREVENT SURFACE FLOW FROM DECOUPLING AND BECOMING CALM OR NEARLY SO
AS WE`RE ALREADY SEEING AT MANY LOCATIONS INLAND. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ALSO REMAINS HIGH WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S...THOUGH THERE
IS SOME PASSING CIRRUS ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE THE ADVECTION FOG
ALONG THE COAST IS EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE INTERIOR LATE
TONIGHT...EVEN IF IT DOESN`T...CONDITIONS ARE STILL FAVORABLE FOR
RADIATIONAL FOG DEVELOPMENT.

GIVEN THE CURRENT TRENDS...WILL BE LOOKING BE ISSUING A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY ALONG THE VOLUSIA-BREVARD-INDIAN RIVER COAST. FURTHER
EXPANSION MAY BE NEEDED OVERNIGHT IF ADDITIONAL FOG DEVELOPS AS
EXPECTED.

OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 6OS WITH A FEW UPPER 60S/LOW
70S ALONG THE ST LUCIE AND MARTIN COASTS.

&&

.AVIATION... FOG ALREADY AT...OR JUST EAST OF...COASTAL TAF SITES
FROM KOMN-KFPR WITH TEMPO LIFR CIGS/MVFR VSBYS AS BANK MOVES IN
THROUGH 04Z BECOMING PREVAILING THEREAFTER THROUGH 13Z/14Z. INLAND
SITES WILL SEE WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPING AFTER 04Z WITH PREVAILING
LIFR CONDITIONS AFTER 06Z EXPECTED...LIFTING AFTER 14Z. MOST
LOCATIONS WILL SEE A PERIOD BETWEEN 13Z-15Z TOMORROW WITH TEMPO IFR
CIGS/VSBYS BEFORE ALL AREAS BECOMING VFR AFTER 15Z. AFTN CU
DEVELOPMENT MAY BRING OCCASIONAL CIGS FL035-050.

&&

.MARINE...DENSE SEA FOG WILL REMAIN A NAVIGATIONAL HAZARD TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST NORTH OF ST LUCIE INLET.
WILL ALLOW ONGOING MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO CONTINUE INTO
TOMORROW MORNING.

OTHERWISE...WILL SEE EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW 5-10KTS VEERING MORE
EASTERLY OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH SPEEDS PICKING UP TO 10-15KTS
INTO THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET. SEAS 3-5FT
IN A PERSISTENT MODERATE SWELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  59  76  61  81 /  10  10  10  10
MCO  64  82  63  86 /   0  10  10  10
MLB  63  77  65  83 /   0  10  10  10
VRB  66  79  65  83 /  10  10  10  10
LEE  64  79  63  85 /  10  10  10  10
SFB  62  79  62  85 /  10  10  10  10
ORL  64  80  63  86 /  10  10  10  10
FPR  66  79  64  83 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR COASTAL VOLUSIA
     COUNTY-INDIAN RIVER-NORTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-SOUTHERN
     BREVARD COUNTY.

AM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR FLAGLER BEACH TO
     VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM-FLAGLER BEACH TO
     VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-SEBASTIAN INLET TO
     JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
     SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
     SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.

&&

$$

MOSES/BLOTTMAN




000
FXUS62 KMLB 030409 RRA
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
953 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...THE SEA FOG/STRATUS THAT HAS BEEN LURKING ALONG THE
COAST MOST OF THE DAY HAS OOZED BACK INTO THE COAST THIS EVENING
FROM FORT PIERCE NORTHWARDS. FOG IS JUST REACHING MOST OF THE
COASTAL TAF SITES...THOUGH CAMERAS HAVE SHOWN SOME DENSE FOG
RIGHT ALONG THE BEACH STARTING LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ONSHORE WIND
COMPONENT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH FOG INLAND THROUGH THE REST OF THE
EVENING WITH LOCALLY DENSE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

THE EVOLUTION OF THE INTERIOR AND FOG IS A LITTLE MORE INTERESTING.
SYNOPTIC FLOW TURNS LIGHT EASTERLY OVERNIGHT WITH STRONGER WINDS 5-
10KTS FROM OSCEOLA/BREVARD SOUTH AND NEARLY CALM FURTHER NORTH JUST
ABOVE THE SURFACE. THIS DOESN`T APPEAR TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
PREVENT SURFACE FLOW FROM DECOUPLING AND BECOMING CALM OR NEARLY SO
AS WE`RE ALREADY SEEING AT MANY LOCATIONS INLAND. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ALSO REMAINS HIGH WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S...THOUGH THERE
IS SOME PASSING CIRRUS ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE THE ADVECTION FOG
ALONG THE COAST IS EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE INTERIOR LATE
TONIGHT...EVEN IF IT DOESN`T...CONDITIONS ARE STILL FAVORABLE FOR
RADIATIONAL FOG DEVELOPMENT.

GIVEN THE CURRENT TRENDS...WILL BE LOOKING BE ISSUING A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY ALONG THE VOLUSIA-BREVARD-INDIAN RIVER COAST. FURTHER
EXPANSION MAY BE NEEDED OVERNIGHT IF ADDITIONAL FOG DEVELOPS AS
EXPECTED.

OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 6OS WITH A FEW UPPER 60S/LOW
70S ALONG THE ST LUCIE AND MARTIN COASTS.

&&

.AVIATION... FOG ALREADY AT...OR JUST EAST OF...COASTAL TAF SITES
FROM KOMN-KFPR WITH TEMPO LIFR CIGS/MVFR VSBYS AS BANK MOVES IN
THROUGH 04Z BECOMING PREVAILING THEREAFTER THROUGH 13Z/14Z. INLAND
SITES WILL SEE WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPING AFTER 04Z WITH PREVAILING
LIFR CONDITIONS AFTER 06Z EXPECTED...LIFTING AFTER 14Z. MOST
LOCATIONS WILL SEE A PERIOD BETWEEN 13Z-15Z TOMORROW WITH TEMPO IFR
CIGS/VSBYS BEFORE ALL AREAS BECOMING VFR AFTER 15Z. AFTN CU
DEVELOPMENT MAY BRING OCCASIONAL CIGS FL035-050.

&&

.MARINE...DENSE SEA FOG WILL REMAIN A NAVIGATIONAL HAZARD TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST NORTH OF ST LUCIE INLET.
WILL ALLOW ONGOING MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO CONTINUE INTO
TOMORROW MORNING.

OTHERWISE...WILL SEE EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW 5-10KTS VEERING MORE
EASTERLY OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH SPEEDS PICKING UP TO 10-15KTS
INTO THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET. SEAS 3-5FT
IN A PERSISTENT MODERATE SWELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  59  76  61  81 /  10  10  10  10
MCO  64  82  63  86 /   0  10  10  10
MLB  63  77  65  83 /   0  10  10  10
VRB  66  79  65  83 /  10  10  10  10
LEE  64  79  63  85 /  10  10  10  10
SFB  62  79  62  85 /  10  10  10  10
ORL  64  80  63  86 /  10  10  10  10
FPR  66  79  64  83 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR COASTAL VOLUSIA
     COUNTY-INDIAN RIVER-NORTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-SOUTHERN
     BREVARD COUNTY.

AM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR FLAGLER BEACH TO
     VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM-FLAGLER BEACH TO
     VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-SEBASTIAN INLET TO
     JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
     SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
     SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.

&&

$$

MOSES/BLOTTMAN




000
FXUS62 KMLB 022030
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
330 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...DENSE FOG APPEARS LIKELY AGAIN TONIGHT...

...OCEAN SWELLS WILL ELEVATE THE RIP CURRENT THREAT...

...WARM STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY...

CURRENT INTO TONIGHT...SEA FOG/STRATUS STILL LURKING ALONG THE COAST
OVER THE COLD SHELF WATERS. WHILE SATELLITE AND BEACH CAMS SHOW THIS
AREA FINALLY THINNED THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT FOG TO REDEVELOP OVER
BOTH LAND AND WATER NOT TOO LONG AFTER SUNSET. DEVELOPING LIGHT
SYNOPTIC EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD AID DEVELOPMENT OVER LAND WHILST
ADVECTING ANY FOG THAT REDEVELOPS OVER THE ATLC BACK ONSHORE...AND
FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER THE SUN SETS. SHOWED THIS TREND IN THE GRIDS.
EXPECT SOME EARLY (EVENING) ISSUANCES OF STATEMENTS AND ADVISORIES
SHOULD THIS PLAY OUT AS ANTICIPATED. FOG MOST LIKELY FOR VOLUSIA/
BREVARD...OWING TO COMBINATION OF COOLER SHELF WATERS...WEAKER
SYNOPTIC FLOW...AND FOG/STRATUS PERSISTING JUST OFFSHORE.

TUESDAY...AFTER MORNING FOG/LOW CLOUDS BURN OFF...ANOTHER WARM DAY
ON TAP WITH A LIGHT ONSHORE BREEZE ENHANCED BY LOCAL ECSB CIRC.
TEMPS SIMILAR TO THIS AFTERNOON WITH U7-S ALONG THE COAST AND L80S
INLAND...A BIT COOLER ALONG VOLUSIA COUNTY BEACHES.

WED-THU...WARM AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE AS SFC RIDGE
AXIS ACROSS CENTRAL FL MAINTAINS A S/SW WIND FLOW AND RIDGE ALOFT
REMAINS OVER THE STATE. MODELS SHOW INCREASING LOW LEVEL WINDS INTO
MID WEEK WHICH WILL MAKE FOG DEVELOPMENT LESS LIKELY BUT WILL LEAVE
A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG IN FOR EARLY WED MORNING FOR NOW. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AWAY
FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE CHILLY EARLY MARCH SURF TEMPERATURES
WILL KEEP IT A FEW DEGREES COOLER.

THU NIGHT-MON...ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SAG SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE AREA THU NIGHT AND EARLY FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND EXTENDS OFFSHORE INTO LATE WEEK.
THIS WILL QUICKLY VEER WINDS TO THE EAST AS THIS BOUNDARY MOVES
THROUGH. ELEVATED LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW...HIGHER MOISTURE AND
PROXIMITY OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE ABLE TO GENERATE AT LEAST
SCATTERED ONSHORE MOVING SHOWERS FRI. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG
THE COAST NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IF MORE PERSISTENT SHOWER BANDS
DEVELOP.

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH OFF THE COAST BY
EARLY SAT BUT MODELS THEN DIVERGE IN THEIR SOLUTIONS WITH THEREFORE
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE WEEKEND FORECAST. THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW
THIS FEATURE DEVELOPING INTO A WEAK LOW AND LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO
THE WEEKEND...WHICH PUSHES THE FRONT FARTHER SOUTH AND ALLOWS FOR
DRIER AIR TO MOVE IN SUN. HOWEVER THE ECMWF SHOWS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTH AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF AND SHIFTS NORTHEAST. DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES WILL
LEAVE AT LEAST SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST LATE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAF PACKAGE WENT PRETTY PESSIMISTIC WITH VSBY AND
CIGS. IFR TO LIFR CIGS/VSBYS SPREADING INLAND FROM THE ATLC MAINLY
VRB-MLB-DAB STARTING 02Z-05Z AND THEN ACROSS THE INLAND AERODROMES
06Z-09Z AND REMAINING THROUGH 14Z-15Z.

&&

.MARINE...DENSE SEA FOG WILL REMAIN A NAVIGATIONAL HAZARD TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. WHILE VIS SATELLITE AND BEACH CAMS SHOW THIS BAND HAS
RETREATED SEAWARD AND THINNED FOR THE TIME BEING...EXPECT SEA FOG
AND STRATUS TO EXPAND/THICKEN THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. THUS...
NO PLANS TO MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE MARINE DFA. OTHERWISE...LIGHT
ONSHORE FLOW 5-10KT WILL INCREASE A LITTLE ON TUESDAY SOUTH OF
SEBASTIAN INLET. SEAS 3-5FT IN A PERSISTENT MODERATE SWELL.

WED-THU...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA
MID WEEK WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS UP TO 10-15 KNOTS BECOMING BREEZY AT
TIMES OFFSHORE. THIS MAY BUILD SEAS UP TO 6 FEET WELL AWAY FROM THE
COAST WED...BUT OTHERWISE SEAS 3-5 FT EXPECTED.

THU NIGHT-SAT...WEAK FRONT MOVES INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA THU NIGHT WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASING BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AND QUICKLY VEERING
TO THE E/NE FRI. WIND SPEEDS UP TO 15-20 KNOTS AND BUILDING SEAS
WILL LEAD TO POOR TO HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS DEVELOPING LATE
WEEK AND CONTINUING INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  60  74  61  81 /  10  10  10  10
MCO  64  82  63  86 /   0  10  10  10
MLB  63  77  65  83 /   0  10  10  10
VRB  66  79  65  83 /  10  10  10  10
LEE  64  79  63  85 /  10  10  10  10
SFB  62  79  62  85 /  10  10  10  10
ORL  64  80  63  86 /  10  10  10  10
FPR  66  79  64  83 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR FLAGLER BEACH TO
     VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM-FLAGLER BEACH TO
     VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-SEBASTIAN INLET TO
     JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
     SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
     SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CRISTALDI
LONG TERM....WEITLICH
AVIATION...CRISTALDI




000
FXUS62 KMLB 022030
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
330 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...DENSE FOG APPEARS LIKELY AGAIN TONIGHT...

...OCEAN SWELLS WILL ELEVATE THE RIP CURRENT THREAT...

...WARM STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY...

CURRENT INTO TONIGHT...SEA FOG/STRATUS STILL LURKING ALONG THE COAST
OVER THE COLD SHELF WATERS. WHILE SATELLITE AND BEACH CAMS SHOW THIS
AREA FINALLY THINNED THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT FOG TO REDEVELOP OVER
BOTH LAND AND WATER NOT TOO LONG AFTER SUNSET. DEVELOPING LIGHT
SYNOPTIC EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD AID DEVELOPMENT OVER LAND WHILST
ADVECTING ANY FOG THAT REDEVELOPS OVER THE ATLC BACK ONSHORE...AND
FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER THE SUN SETS. SHOWED THIS TREND IN THE GRIDS.
EXPECT SOME EARLY (EVENING) ISSUANCES OF STATEMENTS AND ADVISORIES
SHOULD THIS PLAY OUT AS ANTICIPATED. FOG MOST LIKELY FOR VOLUSIA/
BREVARD...OWING TO COMBINATION OF COOLER SHELF WATERS...WEAKER
SYNOPTIC FLOW...AND FOG/STRATUS PERSISTING JUST OFFSHORE.

TUESDAY...AFTER MORNING FOG/LOW CLOUDS BURN OFF...ANOTHER WARM DAY
ON TAP WITH A LIGHT ONSHORE BREEZE ENHANCED BY LOCAL ECSB CIRC.
TEMPS SIMILAR TO THIS AFTERNOON WITH U7-S ALONG THE COAST AND L80S
INLAND...A BIT COOLER ALONG VOLUSIA COUNTY BEACHES.

WED-THU...WARM AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE AS SFC RIDGE
AXIS ACROSS CENTRAL FL MAINTAINS A S/SW WIND FLOW AND RIDGE ALOFT
REMAINS OVER THE STATE. MODELS SHOW INCREASING LOW LEVEL WINDS INTO
MID WEEK WHICH WILL MAKE FOG DEVELOPMENT LESS LIKELY BUT WILL LEAVE
A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG IN FOR EARLY WED MORNING FOR NOW. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AWAY
FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE CHILLY EARLY MARCH SURF TEMPERATURES
WILL KEEP IT A FEW DEGREES COOLER.

THU NIGHT-MON...ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SAG SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE AREA THU NIGHT AND EARLY FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND EXTENDS OFFSHORE INTO LATE WEEK.
THIS WILL QUICKLY VEER WINDS TO THE EAST AS THIS BOUNDARY MOVES
THROUGH. ELEVATED LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW...HIGHER MOISTURE AND
PROXIMITY OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE ABLE TO GENERATE AT LEAST
SCATTERED ONSHORE MOVING SHOWERS FRI. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG
THE COAST NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IF MORE PERSISTENT SHOWER BANDS
DEVELOP.

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH OFF THE COAST BY
EARLY SAT BUT MODELS THEN DIVERGE IN THEIR SOLUTIONS WITH THEREFORE
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE WEEKEND FORECAST. THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW
THIS FEATURE DEVELOPING INTO A WEAK LOW AND LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO
THE WEEKEND...WHICH PUSHES THE FRONT FARTHER SOUTH AND ALLOWS FOR
DRIER AIR TO MOVE IN SUN. HOWEVER THE ECMWF SHOWS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTH AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF AND SHIFTS NORTHEAST. DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES WILL
LEAVE AT LEAST SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST LATE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAF PACKAGE WENT PRETTY PESSIMISTIC WITH VSBY AND
CIGS. IFR TO LIFR CIGS/VSBYS SPREADING INLAND FROM THE ATLC MAINLY
VRB-MLB-DAB STARTING 02Z-05Z AND THEN ACROSS THE INLAND AERODROMES
06Z-09Z AND REMAINING THROUGH 14Z-15Z.

&&

.MARINE...DENSE SEA FOG WILL REMAIN A NAVIGATIONAL HAZARD TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. WHILE VIS SATELLITE AND BEACH CAMS SHOW THIS BAND HAS
RETREATED SEAWARD AND THINNED FOR THE TIME BEING...EXPECT SEA FOG
AND STRATUS TO EXPAND/THICKEN THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. THUS...
NO PLANS TO MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE MARINE DFA. OTHERWISE...LIGHT
ONSHORE FLOW 5-10KT WILL INCREASE A LITTLE ON TUESDAY SOUTH OF
SEBASTIAN INLET. SEAS 3-5FT IN A PERSISTENT MODERATE SWELL.

WED-THU...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA
MID WEEK WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS UP TO 10-15 KNOTS BECOMING BREEZY AT
TIMES OFFSHORE. THIS MAY BUILD SEAS UP TO 6 FEET WELL AWAY FROM THE
COAST WED...BUT OTHERWISE SEAS 3-5 FT EXPECTED.

THU NIGHT-SAT...WEAK FRONT MOVES INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA THU NIGHT WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASING BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AND QUICKLY VEERING
TO THE E/NE FRI. WIND SPEEDS UP TO 15-20 KNOTS AND BUILDING SEAS
WILL LEAD TO POOR TO HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS DEVELOPING LATE
WEEK AND CONTINUING INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  60  74  61  81 /  10  10  10  10
MCO  64  82  63  86 /   0  10  10  10
MLB  63  77  65  83 /   0  10  10  10
VRB  66  79  65  83 /  10  10  10  10
LEE  64  79  63  85 /  10  10  10  10
SFB  62  79  62  85 /  10  10  10  10
ORL  64  80  63  86 /  10  10  10  10
FPR  66  79  64  83 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR FLAGLER BEACH TO
     VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM-FLAGLER BEACH TO
     VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-SEBASTIAN INLET TO
     JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
     SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
     SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CRISTALDI
LONG TERM....WEITLICH
AVIATION...CRISTALDI





000
FXUS62 KMLB 021533
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1030 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.UPDATE...

...DENSE FOG ADVISORIES HAVE EXPIRED....

...LOCALLY DENSE FOG EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT...

SEVERAL ROUNDS OF PRODUCT UPDATES EARLIER THIS AM FOR EXPANSION...
EXTENSION AND CANCELLATION OF DFA. 10 AM UPDATE REMOVED HEADLINES
AND MENTION OF FOG...WHICH WILL BE HANDLED IN IMPACT WX UPDATES FOR
THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. ALSO DENOTED EXPECTED TREND FOR LOW CLOUDS
BREAKING UP. NO NEED FOR ANY FURTHER UPDATES.

EARLY INDICATIONS ARE THAT WE`LL SEE A REPEAT OF THE WIDESPREAD
DENSE FOG TONIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...VSBYS RAPIDLY IMPROVING WHILE IFR STRATUS IS STARTING TO
ERODE AS WELL. EXPECT MVFR-VFR AREAWIDE BY 1630 UTC...WITH CIGS
BKN025-035 RISING AND SCATTERING OUT SOME.

&&

.MARINE...DFA IN EFFECT UNTIL 18Z. VIS SATELLITE SHOWS THE SEA
FOG/STRATUS DECK THINNING...SO WE MAY WIND UP CANCELING THAT AN
HOUR OR TWO EARLY. OTRW...NO CHGS TO WINDS/SEAS.

&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...CRISTALDI
LONG TERM/IMPACT WEATHER....WEITLICH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015/

...WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK...

...LINGERING SWELL TO INCREASE THE RIP CURRENT RISK DURING THE FIRST
WEEK OF SPRING BREAK...

TUESDAY-THURSDAY...WARM AND DRY PERIOD EXPECTED MIDWEEK WITH RIDGING
LYING ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO VEER GRADUALLY
EACH DAY...STARTING OUT OF THE EAST-SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY AND OUT OF
THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST BY THURSDAY. PATCHY FOG REMAINS IN THE FORECAST
TUESDAY NIGHT GIVEN THE LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND NEARLY CALM
WINDS OVER THE INTERIOR. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WITH
MAXES IN THE LOW 80S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE CHILLY
EARLY MARCH SURF TEMPERATURES WILL KEEP IT A FEW DEGREES COOLER.
WILL BE WATCHING FOR AN INLAND MOVING SEA BREEZE EACH AFTERNOON
GIVEN THE LARGE TEMPERATURE SPREAD BETWEEN THE COOL ATLANTIC SHELF
WATERS AND WARMING OVER THE PENINSULA.

FRI-MON...ANOTHER COOL FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SAG SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE AREA LATE THURSDAY / EARLY FRIDAY. WITH NEARLY ALL THE AVAILABLE
MID LEVEL ENERGY AND JET SUPPORT PASSING WELL TO OUR
NORTH...EXPECTING ONLY LOW END POPS WITH THE FRONT ITSELF. HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHING OFFSHORE THE MID ATLANTIC WILL ALLOW OUR WINDS TO
VEER QUICKLY TO THE NE BY FRIDAY...WITH POST FRONTAL CLOUDINESS AND
NE FLOW KEEPING OUR TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER FOR THE
WEEKEND. BOTH THE EURO AND GFS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE AN INVERTED
TROUGH DEVELOPING JUST OFFSHORE SUNDAY AND LIFTING AWAY
MONDAY...MEANING CHANCE POPS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE END
OF THE PERIOD...WITH EMPHASIS ON RAIN CHANCES CLOSER TO THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...LIFR CIGS VSBYS WILL AFFECT INTERIOR TERMINALS AND
COASTAL TERMINALS FROM KDAB-KMLB THROUGH 14Z. TEMPO IFR FOG EXPECTED
AT KVRB/KFPR AS WELL. SHOULD SEE FOG LIFT FROM 14Z-15Z WITH IFR CIGS
RAISING TO MVFR THEN BECOMING SCATTERED BY MID DAY INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. STRATUS AND FOG WILL AFFECT NRN TERMINALS AGAIN MON NIGHT
MAINLY AFT 06Z.

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH WILL DROP INTO THE WATERS TODAY WITH
N-NE FLOW 10 KNOTS OR LESS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY AND LIGHT ONSHORE
WINDS ACROSS THE SRN WATERS. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NE-E TONIGHT TO
10 KNOTS. EAST SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TODAY UP TO 5-6 FT OFFSHORE AND
4-5 FT NEAR THE SHORE. SEAS WILL DROP TO 4-5 FT TONIGHT IN AN EAST
SWELL.

TUE-FRI...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS SETTLES ACROSS THE
REGION INTO MID WEEK WITH EASTERLY WINDS BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY WED-
THU. WIND SPEEDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW 15 KNOTS THROUGH
THIS TIMEFRAME WITH SEAS 3-5 FEET. ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE WATERS LATE WEEK WITH BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
DETERIORATE AS WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTH BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  74  59  78  60 /  10  10  10  10
MCO  80  61  83  61 /  10  10  10  10
MLB  78  64  79  65 /  10  10  10  10
VRB  79  63  81  64 /  10  10  10  10
LEE  79  61  83  62 /  10  10  10  10
SFB  79  61  82  61 /  10  10  10  10
ORL  79  62  82  62 /  10  10  10  10
FPR  78  63  80  63 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE. AM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO SEBASTIAN
     INLET UNTIL 1 PM OUT TO 60NM.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KMLB 021533
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1030 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.UPDATE...

...DENSE FOG ADVISORIES HAVE EXPIRED....

...LOCALLY DENSE FOG EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT...

SEVERAL ROUNDS OF PRODUCT UPDATES EARLIER THIS AM FOR EXPANSION...
EXTENSION AND CANCELLATION OF DFA. 10 AM UPDATE REMOVED HEADLINES
AND MENTION OF FOG...WHICH WILL BE HANDLED IN IMPACT WX UPDATES FOR
THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. ALSO DENOTED EXPECTED TREND FOR LOW CLOUDS
BREAKING UP. NO NEED FOR ANY FURTHER UPDATES.

EARLY INDICATIONS ARE THAT WE`LL SEE A REPEAT OF THE WIDESPREAD
DENSE FOG TONIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...VSBYS RAPIDLY IMPROVING WHILE IFR STRATUS IS STARTING TO
ERODE AS WELL. EXPECT MVFR-VFR AREAWIDE BY 1630 UTC...WITH CIGS
BKN025-035 RISING AND SCATTERING OUT SOME.

&&

.MARINE...DFA IN EFFECT UNTIL 18Z. VIS SATELLITE SHOWS THE SEA
FOG/STRATUS DECK THINNING...SO WE MAY WIND UP CANCELING THAT AN
HOUR OR TWO EARLY. OTRW...NO CHGS TO WINDS/SEAS.

&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...CRISTALDI
LONG TERM/IMPACT WEATHER....WEITLICH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015/

...WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK...

...LINGERING SWELL TO INCREASE THE RIP CURRENT RISK DURING THE FIRST
WEEK OF SPRING BREAK...

TUESDAY-THURSDAY...WARM AND DRY PERIOD EXPECTED MIDWEEK WITH RIDGING
LYING ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO VEER GRADUALLY
EACH DAY...STARTING OUT OF THE EAST-SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY AND OUT OF
THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST BY THURSDAY. PATCHY FOG REMAINS IN THE FORECAST
TUESDAY NIGHT GIVEN THE LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND NEARLY CALM
WINDS OVER THE INTERIOR. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WITH
MAXES IN THE LOW 80S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE CHILLY
EARLY MARCH SURF TEMPERATURES WILL KEEP IT A FEW DEGREES COOLER.
WILL BE WATCHING FOR AN INLAND MOVING SEA BREEZE EACH AFTERNOON
GIVEN THE LARGE TEMPERATURE SPREAD BETWEEN THE COOL ATLANTIC SHELF
WATERS AND WARMING OVER THE PENINSULA.

FRI-MON...ANOTHER COOL FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SAG SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE AREA LATE THURSDAY / EARLY FRIDAY. WITH NEARLY ALL THE AVAILABLE
MID LEVEL ENERGY AND JET SUPPORT PASSING WELL TO OUR
NORTH...EXPECTING ONLY LOW END POPS WITH THE FRONT ITSELF. HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHING OFFSHORE THE MID ATLANTIC WILL ALLOW OUR WINDS TO
VEER QUICKLY TO THE NE BY FRIDAY...WITH POST FRONTAL CLOUDINESS AND
NE FLOW KEEPING OUR TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER FOR THE
WEEKEND. BOTH THE EURO AND GFS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE AN INVERTED
TROUGH DEVELOPING JUST OFFSHORE SUNDAY AND LIFTING AWAY
MONDAY...MEANING CHANCE POPS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE END
OF THE PERIOD...WITH EMPHASIS ON RAIN CHANCES CLOSER TO THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...LIFR CIGS VSBYS WILL AFFECT INTERIOR TERMINALS AND
COASTAL TERMINALS FROM KDAB-KMLB THROUGH 14Z. TEMPO IFR FOG EXPECTED
AT KVRB/KFPR AS WELL. SHOULD SEE FOG LIFT FROM 14Z-15Z WITH IFR CIGS
RAISING TO MVFR THEN BECOMING SCATTERED BY MID DAY INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. STRATUS AND FOG WILL AFFECT NRN TERMINALS AGAIN MON NIGHT
MAINLY AFT 06Z.

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH WILL DROP INTO THE WATERS TODAY WITH
N-NE FLOW 10 KNOTS OR LESS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY AND LIGHT ONSHORE
WINDS ACROSS THE SRN WATERS. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NE-E TONIGHT TO
10 KNOTS. EAST SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TODAY UP TO 5-6 FT OFFSHORE AND
4-5 FT NEAR THE SHORE. SEAS WILL DROP TO 4-5 FT TONIGHT IN AN EAST
SWELL.

TUE-FRI...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS SETTLES ACROSS THE
REGION INTO MID WEEK WITH EASTERLY WINDS BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY WED-
THU. WIND SPEEDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW 15 KNOTS THROUGH
THIS TIMEFRAME WITH SEAS 3-5 FEET. ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE WATERS LATE WEEK WITH BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
DETERIORATE AS WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTH BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  74  59  78  60 /  10  10  10  10
MCO  80  61  83  61 /  10  10  10  10
MLB  78  64  79  65 /  10  10  10  10
VRB  79  63  81  64 /  10  10  10  10
LEE  79  61  83  62 /  10  10  10  10
SFB  79  61  82  61 /  10  10  10  10
ORL  79  62  82  62 /  10  10  10  10
FPR  78  63  80  63 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE. AM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO SEBASTIAN
     INLET UNTIL 1 PM OUT TO 60NM.

&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KMLB 020837
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
337 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...LOCALLY DENSE FOG THIS MORNING...

...WARMING TREND ON TAP FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...

...LINGERING SWELL TO INCREASE THE RIP CURRENT RISK DURING THE FIRST
WEEK OF SPRING BREAK...

TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY AND A FRONT
MOVING OFF THE MID ATLC COAST WILL PUSH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY/WIND
SHIFT BOUNDARY ACROSS THE CENTRAL FL PENINSULA THIS AFTN. LOW LVL
WINDS WILL BE N/NE ACROSS NRN AREAS AND EASTERLY ACROSS THE TREASURE
COAST. AREAS OF STRATUS AND FOG EARLY THIS MORNING WILL ADVANCE S/SW
AND ALLOW FOR AREAS OF LOCALLY DENSE FOG FROM OSCEOLA AND BREVARD
COUNTIES NORTHWARD THIS MORNING. WILL RAISE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
THROUGH 9 AM THIS MORNING FOR THESE AREAS WITH PATCHY FOG ACROSS
OKEECHOBEE COUNTY AND THE TREASURE COAST.  AFTER THE MORNING
FOG/STRATUS BREAKS UP INTO EARLY AFTERNOON SHOULD SEE A WARM
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 ACROSS THE SOUTH AND COOLER IN THE
MID 70S VOLUSIA COAST AND UPPER 70S BREVARD COAST WITH THE COOLER
NEARSHORE SURF TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. A RELATIVELY DRY
AIRMASS ABOVE H8 SHOULD KEEP SHOWER CHANCES BELOW MENTIONABLE RANGE
OVER LAND. A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED TODAY AT E
CENTRAL FL BEACHES WITH MODERATE EAST OCEAN SWELLS OF 4-5 FT NEAR
SHORE.

TONIGHT...A REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL APPROACH THE MID
ATLC AND KEEP A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. ELEVATED LOW LVL
MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD ALLOW AREAS OF FOG TO FORM AGAIN
ACROSS NRN AND INTERIOR AREAS LATER TONIGHT. SOME DENSE LATE
NIGHT FOG IS POSSIBLE. LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S.

TUESDAY-THURSDAY...WARM AND DRY PERIOD EXPECTED MIDWEEK WITH RIDGING
LYING ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO VEER GRADUALLY
EACH DAY...STARTING OUT OF THE EAST-SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY AND OUT OF
THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST BY THURSDAY. PATCHY FOG REMAINS IN THE FORECAST
TUESDAY NIGHT GIVEN THE LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND NEARLY CALM
WINDS OVER THE INTERIOR. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WITH
MAXES IN THE LOW 80S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE CHILLY
EARLY MARCH SURF TEMPERATURES WILL KEEP IT A FEW DEGREES COOLER.
WILL BE WATCHING FOR AN INLAND MOVING SEA BREEZE EACH AFTERNOON
GIVEN THE LARGE TEMPERATURE SPREAD BETWEEN THE COOL ATLANTIC SHELF
WATERS AND WARMING OVER THE PENINSULA.

FRI-MON...ANOTHER COOL FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SAG SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE AREA LATE THURSDAY / EARLY FRIDAY. WITH NEARLY ALL THE AVAILABLE
MID LEVEL ENERGY AND JET SUPPORT PASSING WELL TO OUR
NORTH...EXPECTING ONLY LOW END POPS WITH THE FRONT ITSELF. HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHING OFFSHORE THE MID ATLANTIC WILL ALLOW OUR WINDS TO
VEER QUICKLY TO THE NE BY FRIDAY...WITH POST FRONTAL CLOUDINESS AND
NE FLOW KEEPING OUR TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER FOR THE
WEEKEND. BOTH THE EURO AND GFS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE AN INVERTED
TROUGH DEVELOPING JUST OFFSHORE SUNDAY AND LIFTING AWAY
MONDAY...MEANING CHANCE POPS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE END
OF THE PERIOD...WITH EMPHASIS ON RAIN CHANCES CLOSER TO THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...LIFR CIGS VSBYS WILL AFFECT INTERIOR TERMINALS AND
COASTAL TERMINALS FROM KDAB-KMLB THROUGH 14Z. TEMPO IFR FOG EXPECTED
AT KVRB/KFPR AS WELL. SHOULD SEE FOG LIFT FROM 14Z-15Z WITH IFR CIGS
RAISING TO MVFR THEN BECOMING SCATTERED BY MID DAY INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. STRATUS AND FOG WILL AFFECT NRN TERMINALS AGAIN MON NIGHT
MAINLY AFT 06Z.

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH WILL DROP INTO THE WATERS TODAY WITH
N-NE FLOW 10 KNOTS OR LESS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY AND LIGHT ONSHORE
WINDS ACROSS THE SRN WATERS. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NE-E TONIGHT TO
10 KNOTS. EAST SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TODAY UP TO 5-6 FT OFFSHORE AND
4-5 FT NEAR THE SHORE. SEAS WILL DROP TO 4-5 FT TONIGHT IN AN EAST
SWELL.

TUE-FRI...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS SETTLES ACROSS THE
REGION INTO MID WEEK WITH EASTERLY WINDS BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY WED-
THU. WIND SPEEDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW 15 KNOTS THROUGH
THIS TIMEFRAME WITH SEAS 3-5 FEET. ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE WATERS LATE WEEK WITH BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
DETERIORATE AS WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTH BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  74  59  78  60 /  10  10  10  10
MCO  80  61  83  61 /  10  10  10  10
MLB  78  64  79  65 /  10  10  10  10
VRB  79  63  81  64 /  10  10  10  10
LEE  79  61  83  62 /  10  10  10  10
SFB  79  61  82  61 /  10  10  10  10
ORL  79  62  82  62 /  10  10  10  10
FPR  78  63  80  63 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR COASTAL
     VOLUSIA COUNTY-INLAND VOLUSIA COUNTY-NORTHERN BREVARD
     COUNTY-NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-
     SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY.

AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...VOLKMER
LONG TERM/IMPACT WEATHER....ULRICH





000
FXUS62 KMLB 020837
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
337 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...LOCALLY DENSE FOG THIS MORNING...

...WARMING TREND ON TAP FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...

...LINGERING SWELL TO INCREASE THE RIP CURRENT RISK DURING THE FIRST
WEEK OF SPRING BREAK...

TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY AND A FRONT
MOVING OFF THE MID ATLC COAST WILL PUSH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY/WIND
SHIFT BOUNDARY ACROSS THE CENTRAL FL PENINSULA THIS AFTN. LOW LVL
WINDS WILL BE N/NE ACROSS NRN AREAS AND EASTERLY ACROSS THE TREASURE
COAST. AREAS OF STRATUS AND FOG EARLY THIS MORNING WILL ADVANCE S/SW
AND ALLOW FOR AREAS OF LOCALLY DENSE FOG FROM OSCEOLA AND BREVARD
COUNTIES NORTHWARD THIS MORNING. WILL RAISE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
THROUGH 9 AM THIS MORNING FOR THESE AREAS WITH PATCHY FOG ACROSS
OKEECHOBEE COUNTY AND THE TREASURE COAST.  AFTER THE MORNING
FOG/STRATUS BREAKS UP INTO EARLY AFTERNOON SHOULD SEE A WARM
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 ACROSS THE SOUTH AND COOLER IN THE
MID 70S VOLUSIA COAST AND UPPER 70S BREVARD COAST WITH THE COOLER
NEARSHORE SURF TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. A RELATIVELY DRY
AIRMASS ABOVE H8 SHOULD KEEP SHOWER CHANCES BELOW MENTIONABLE RANGE
OVER LAND. A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED TODAY AT E
CENTRAL FL BEACHES WITH MODERATE EAST OCEAN SWELLS OF 4-5 FT NEAR
SHORE.

TONIGHT...A REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL APPROACH THE MID
ATLC AND KEEP A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. ELEVATED LOW LVL
MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD ALLOW AREAS OF FOG TO FORM AGAIN
ACROSS NRN AND INTERIOR AREAS LATER TONIGHT. SOME DENSE LATE
NIGHT FOG IS POSSIBLE. LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S.

TUESDAY-THURSDAY...WARM AND DRY PERIOD EXPECTED MIDWEEK WITH RIDGING
LYING ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO VEER GRADUALLY
EACH DAY...STARTING OUT OF THE EAST-SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY AND OUT OF
THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST BY THURSDAY. PATCHY FOG REMAINS IN THE FORECAST
TUESDAY NIGHT GIVEN THE LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND NEARLY CALM
WINDS OVER THE INTERIOR. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WITH
MAXES IN THE LOW 80S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE CHILLY
EARLY MARCH SURF TEMPERATURES WILL KEEP IT A FEW DEGREES COOLER.
WILL BE WATCHING FOR AN INLAND MOVING SEA BREEZE EACH AFTERNOON
GIVEN THE LARGE TEMPERATURE SPREAD BETWEEN THE COOL ATLANTIC SHELF
WATERS AND WARMING OVER THE PENINSULA.

FRI-MON...ANOTHER COOL FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SAG SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE AREA LATE THURSDAY / EARLY FRIDAY. WITH NEARLY ALL THE AVAILABLE
MID LEVEL ENERGY AND JET SUPPORT PASSING WELL TO OUR
NORTH...EXPECTING ONLY LOW END POPS WITH THE FRONT ITSELF. HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHING OFFSHORE THE MID ATLANTIC WILL ALLOW OUR WINDS TO
VEER QUICKLY TO THE NE BY FRIDAY...WITH POST FRONTAL CLOUDINESS AND
NE FLOW KEEPING OUR TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER FOR THE
WEEKEND. BOTH THE EURO AND GFS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE AN INVERTED
TROUGH DEVELOPING JUST OFFSHORE SUNDAY AND LIFTING AWAY
MONDAY...MEANING CHANCE POPS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE END
OF THE PERIOD...WITH EMPHASIS ON RAIN CHANCES CLOSER TO THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...LIFR CIGS VSBYS WILL AFFECT INTERIOR TERMINALS AND
COASTAL TERMINALS FROM KDAB-KMLB THROUGH 14Z. TEMPO IFR FOG EXPECTED
AT KVRB/KFPR AS WELL. SHOULD SEE FOG LIFT FROM 14Z-15Z WITH IFR CIGS
RAISING TO MVFR THEN BECOMING SCATTERED BY MID DAY INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. STRATUS AND FOG WILL AFFECT NRN TERMINALS AGAIN MON NIGHT
MAINLY AFT 06Z.

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH WILL DROP INTO THE WATERS TODAY WITH
N-NE FLOW 10 KNOTS OR LESS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY AND LIGHT ONSHORE
WINDS ACROSS THE SRN WATERS. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NE-E TONIGHT TO
10 KNOTS. EAST SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TODAY UP TO 5-6 FT OFFSHORE AND
4-5 FT NEAR THE SHORE. SEAS WILL DROP TO 4-5 FT TONIGHT IN AN EAST
SWELL.

TUE-FRI...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS SETTLES ACROSS THE
REGION INTO MID WEEK WITH EASTERLY WINDS BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY WED-
THU. WIND SPEEDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW 15 KNOTS THROUGH
THIS TIMEFRAME WITH SEAS 3-5 FEET. ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE WATERS LATE WEEK WITH BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
DETERIORATE AS WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTH BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  74  59  78  60 /  10  10  10  10
MCO  80  61  83  61 /  10  10  10  10
MLB  78  64  79  65 /  10  10  10  10
VRB  79  63  81  64 /  10  10  10  10
LEE  79  61  83  62 /  10  10  10  10
SFB  79  61  82  61 /  10  10  10  10
ORL  79  62  82  62 /  10  10  10  10
FPR  78  63  80  63 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR COASTAL
     VOLUSIA COUNTY-INLAND VOLUSIA COUNTY-NORTHERN BREVARD
     COUNTY-NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-
     SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY.

AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...VOLKMER
LONG TERM/IMPACT WEATHER....ULRICH




000
FXUS62 KMLB 020837
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
337 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...LOCALLY DENSE FOG THIS MORNING...

...WARMING TREND ON TAP FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...

...LINGERING SWELL TO INCREASE THE RIP CURRENT RISK DURING THE FIRST
WEEK OF SPRING BREAK...

TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY AND A FRONT
MOVING OFF THE MID ATLC COAST WILL PUSH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY/WIND
SHIFT BOUNDARY ACROSS THE CENTRAL FL PENINSULA THIS AFTN. LOW LVL
WINDS WILL BE N/NE ACROSS NRN AREAS AND EASTERLY ACROSS THE TREASURE
COAST. AREAS OF STRATUS AND FOG EARLY THIS MORNING WILL ADVANCE S/SW
AND ALLOW FOR AREAS OF LOCALLY DENSE FOG FROM OSCEOLA AND BREVARD
COUNTIES NORTHWARD THIS MORNING. WILL RAISE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
THROUGH 9 AM THIS MORNING FOR THESE AREAS WITH PATCHY FOG ACROSS
OKEECHOBEE COUNTY AND THE TREASURE COAST.  AFTER THE MORNING
FOG/STRATUS BREAKS UP INTO EARLY AFTERNOON SHOULD SEE A WARM
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 ACROSS THE SOUTH AND COOLER IN THE
MID 70S VOLUSIA COAST AND UPPER 70S BREVARD COAST WITH THE COOLER
NEARSHORE SURF TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. A RELATIVELY DRY
AIRMASS ABOVE H8 SHOULD KEEP SHOWER CHANCES BELOW MENTIONABLE RANGE
OVER LAND. A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED TODAY AT E
CENTRAL FL BEACHES WITH MODERATE EAST OCEAN SWELLS OF 4-5 FT NEAR
SHORE.

TONIGHT...A REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL APPROACH THE MID
ATLC AND KEEP A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. ELEVATED LOW LVL
MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD ALLOW AREAS OF FOG TO FORM AGAIN
ACROSS NRN AND INTERIOR AREAS LATER TONIGHT. SOME DENSE LATE
NIGHT FOG IS POSSIBLE. LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S.

TUESDAY-THURSDAY...WARM AND DRY PERIOD EXPECTED MIDWEEK WITH RIDGING
LYING ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO VEER GRADUALLY
EACH DAY...STARTING OUT OF THE EAST-SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY AND OUT OF
THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST BY THURSDAY. PATCHY FOG REMAINS IN THE FORECAST
TUESDAY NIGHT GIVEN THE LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND NEARLY CALM
WINDS OVER THE INTERIOR. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WITH
MAXES IN THE LOW 80S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE CHILLY
EARLY MARCH SURF TEMPERATURES WILL KEEP IT A FEW DEGREES COOLER.
WILL BE WATCHING FOR AN INLAND MOVING SEA BREEZE EACH AFTERNOON
GIVEN THE LARGE TEMPERATURE SPREAD BETWEEN THE COOL ATLANTIC SHELF
WATERS AND WARMING OVER THE PENINSULA.

FRI-MON...ANOTHER COOL FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SAG SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE AREA LATE THURSDAY / EARLY FRIDAY. WITH NEARLY ALL THE AVAILABLE
MID LEVEL ENERGY AND JET SUPPORT PASSING WELL TO OUR
NORTH...EXPECTING ONLY LOW END POPS WITH THE FRONT ITSELF. HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHING OFFSHORE THE MID ATLANTIC WILL ALLOW OUR WINDS TO
VEER QUICKLY TO THE NE BY FRIDAY...WITH POST FRONTAL CLOUDINESS AND
NE FLOW KEEPING OUR TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER FOR THE
WEEKEND. BOTH THE EURO AND GFS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE AN INVERTED
TROUGH DEVELOPING JUST OFFSHORE SUNDAY AND LIFTING AWAY
MONDAY...MEANING CHANCE POPS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE END
OF THE PERIOD...WITH EMPHASIS ON RAIN CHANCES CLOSER TO THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...LIFR CIGS VSBYS WILL AFFECT INTERIOR TERMINALS AND
COASTAL TERMINALS FROM KDAB-KMLB THROUGH 14Z. TEMPO IFR FOG EXPECTED
AT KVRB/KFPR AS WELL. SHOULD SEE FOG LIFT FROM 14Z-15Z WITH IFR CIGS
RAISING TO MVFR THEN BECOMING SCATTERED BY MID DAY INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. STRATUS AND FOG WILL AFFECT NRN TERMINALS AGAIN MON NIGHT
MAINLY AFT 06Z.

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH WILL DROP INTO THE WATERS TODAY WITH
N-NE FLOW 10 KNOTS OR LESS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY AND LIGHT ONSHORE
WINDS ACROSS THE SRN WATERS. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NE-E TONIGHT TO
10 KNOTS. EAST SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TODAY UP TO 5-6 FT OFFSHORE AND
4-5 FT NEAR THE SHORE. SEAS WILL DROP TO 4-5 FT TONIGHT IN AN EAST
SWELL.

TUE-FRI...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS SETTLES ACROSS THE
REGION INTO MID WEEK WITH EASTERLY WINDS BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY WED-
THU. WIND SPEEDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW 15 KNOTS THROUGH
THIS TIMEFRAME WITH SEAS 3-5 FEET. ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE WATERS LATE WEEK WITH BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
DETERIORATE AS WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTH BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  74  59  78  60 /  10  10  10  10
MCO  80  61  83  61 /  10  10  10  10
MLB  78  64  79  65 /  10  10  10  10
VRB  79  63  81  64 /  10  10  10  10
LEE  79  61  83  62 /  10  10  10  10
SFB  79  61  82  61 /  10  10  10  10
ORL  79  62  82  62 /  10  10  10  10
FPR  78  63  80  63 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR COASTAL
     VOLUSIA COUNTY-INLAND VOLUSIA COUNTY-NORTHERN BREVARD
     COUNTY-NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-
     SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY.

AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...VOLKMER
LONG TERM/IMPACT WEATHER....ULRICH





000
FXUS62 KMLB 020348 AAA
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1045 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...AREAS OF DENSE FOG LOOKING MORE LIKELY OVERNIGHT...

OVERNIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING SOUTH ALONGT HE EASTERN SEABOARD
HAS PUSHED A BOUNDARY BACK SOUTH INTO CENTRAL FL. COOL MOIST NE FLOW
IS OVERSPREADING NORTHERN AREAS INCLUDING THE I 4 CORRIDOR WITH LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTH AND ENCOMPASS
MUCH OF EAST CENTRAL FL BY DAYBREAK WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF
THE TREASURE COAST. HAVE ADJUSTED THE GRIDS TO BRING IN THE FOG AND
LOW CLOUDS A LITTLE SOONER BASED ON SFC OBS AND IR SAT FOG PRODUCT.
VSBYS ARE COMING BACK UP SOME AFTER THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FOG BANK
PASSES BY AS THERE IS SOME WIND ALLOWING FOR LOW LEVEL MIXING. BUT
IF SFC WINDS FALL OFF OVERNIGHT...A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BECOME
NEEDED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA INCLUDING THE I 4 CORRIDOR.

MON...(PREVIOUS) WEAK HIGH REMAINS OVER NORTH-CENTRAL FL DURING THE
DAY. VERY LIGHT SFC WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOG AND LOW CLOUDS TO LINGER
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WHICH COULD HOLD BACK TEMPS FROM
REACHING MOS-ADVERTISED MAXES BY A DEGREE OR TWO. OTHERWISE...A WARM
AND NOT QUITE AS HUMID DAY IS ON TAP WITH SLIGHT MEAN DRYING OF THE
LOCAL AIR MASS KEEPING PRECIP OUT OF THE FCST. MAXES IN THE L80S
AWAY FROM THE COAST. CHILLY EARLY MARCH SURF TEMPS WILL KEEP MAXES
IN THE UPPER 70S ALONG THE SPACE/TREASURE COAST BEACHES...MID 70S IN
COASTAL VOLUSIA.

A PERSISTENT E/NE SWELL NEAR 5FT IS LIKELY TO KEEP THE THREAT FOR
RIP CURRENTS MODERATE TO HIGH AS THE FIRST FULL WEEK OF SPRING BREAK
STARTS.


&&

.AVIATION...IFR/LIFR CIGS OVC003-008 ARE PUSHING SOUTH AND WEST FROM
THE VOLUSIA COAST AND ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD OVER
MOST OF THE LCL AERODROMES BY 06Z AND LINGER THROUGH ABOUT 15Z OR SO.

&&

.MARINE...ALLOWED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT 7 PM AND
REPLACED IT WITH A CAUTION FOR SEAS WHICH ARE 5 TO 7 FEET MAINLY IN
A SWELL. A WEDGE OF NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL PUSH DOWN THE
VOLUSIA AND BREVARD COASTS. ELSEWHERE THE E/SE FLOW WILL DECREASE TO
10 KNOTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT SO NO SIGNIFICANT WIND CHOP.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  59  75  61  78 /  10  10  10  10
MCO  62  81  63  83 /  10  10  10  10
MLB  65  79  64  79 /  10  10   0  10
VRB  65  80  63  81 /  10  10   0  10
LEE  62  80  62  82 /  20  10  10  10
SFB  61  79  61  81 /  10  10  10  10
ORL  63  80  63  82 /  10  10  10  10
FPR  65  79  64  81 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

KELLY/MOSES




000
FXUS62 KMLB 020348 AAA
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1045 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...AREAS OF DENSE FOG LOOKING MORE LIKELY OVERNIGHT...

OVERNIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING SOUTH ALONGT HE EASTERN SEABOARD
HAS PUSHED A BOUNDARY BACK SOUTH INTO CENTRAL FL. COOL MOIST NE FLOW
IS OVERSPREADING NORTHERN AREAS INCLUDING THE I 4 CORRIDOR WITH LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTH AND ENCOMPASS
MUCH OF EAST CENTRAL FL BY DAYBREAK WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF
THE TREASURE COAST. HAVE ADJUSTED THE GRIDS TO BRING IN THE FOG AND
LOW CLOUDS A LITTLE SOONER BASED ON SFC OBS AND IR SAT FOG PRODUCT.
VSBYS ARE COMING BACK UP SOME AFTER THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FOG BANK
PASSES BY AS THERE IS SOME WIND ALLOWING FOR LOW LEVEL MIXING. BUT
IF SFC WINDS FALL OFF OVERNIGHT...A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BECOME
NEEDED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA INCLUDING THE I 4 CORRIDOR.

MON...(PREVIOUS) WEAK HIGH REMAINS OVER NORTH-CENTRAL FL DURING THE
DAY. VERY LIGHT SFC WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOG AND LOW CLOUDS TO LINGER
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WHICH COULD HOLD BACK TEMPS FROM
REACHING MOS-ADVERTISED MAXES BY A DEGREE OR TWO. OTHERWISE...A WARM
AND NOT QUITE AS HUMID DAY IS ON TAP WITH SLIGHT MEAN DRYING OF THE
LOCAL AIR MASS KEEPING PRECIP OUT OF THE FCST. MAXES IN THE L80S
AWAY FROM THE COAST. CHILLY EARLY MARCH SURF TEMPS WILL KEEP MAXES
IN THE UPPER 70S ALONG THE SPACE/TREASURE COAST BEACHES...MID 70S IN
COASTAL VOLUSIA.

A PERSISTENT E/NE SWELL NEAR 5FT IS LIKELY TO KEEP THE THREAT FOR
RIP CURRENTS MODERATE TO HIGH AS THE FIRST FULL WEEK OF SPRING BREAK
STARTS.


&&

.AVIATION...IFR/LIFR CIGS OVC003-008 ARE PUSHING SOUTH AND WEST FROM
THE VOLUSIA COAST AND ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD OVER
MOST OF THE LCL AERODROMES BY 06Z AND LINGER THROUGH ABOUT 15Z OR SO.

&&

.MARINE...ALLOWED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT 7 PM AND
REPLACED IT WITH A CAUTION FOR SEAS WHICH ARE 5 TO 7 FEET MAINLY IN
A SWELL. A WEDGE OF NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL PUSH DOWN THE
VOLUSIA AND BREVARD COASTS. ELSEWHERE THE E/SE FLOW WILL DECREASE TO
10 KNOTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT SO NO SIGNIFICANT WIND CHOP.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  59  75  61  78 /  10  10  10  10
MCO  62  81  63  83 /  10  10  10  10
MLB  65  79  64  79 /  10  10   0  10
VRB  65  80  63  81 /  10  10   0  10
LEE  62  80  62  82 /  20  10  10  10
SFB  61  79  61  81 /  10  10  10  10
ORL  63  80  63  82 /  10  10  10  10
FPR  65  79  64  81 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

KELLY/MOSES





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