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000
FXUS62 KMLB 290806
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
406 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY/TONIGHT...EASTERN U.S. TROUGH ALOFT CONTINUES TO DEEPEN
DRIVING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO NORTH FLORIDA. MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH PW VALUES UP TO 2 INCHES...
GENERATING GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INITIALLY PUSH EASTWARD
ACROSS AREAS FROM ORLANDO NORTHWARD AS EARLY AS THIS MORNING WITH
INCREASING COVERAGE FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE AFTERNOON. HAVE POPS UP
TO 50 PERCENT MOST AREAS WHICH IS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE MAV
GUIDANCE. OFFSHORE FLOW REMAINS STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT EAST COAST
SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE LACK OF SEA
BREEZE...HIGHER CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER WILL
LIKELY KEEP HIGHS NEAR NORMAL IN THE LOW 90S. HOWEVER THOSE AREAS
THAT SEE MORE SUNSHINE MAY BE ABLE TO REACH INTO THE MID 90S...
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST SOUTH OF THE CAPE.

AS FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES INTO NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA TONIGHT...DRIER
AIR WILL BEGIN TO WORK DOWN INTO THE REGION WITH RAIN CHANCES
GRADUALLY DECREASING. HOWEVER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING WITH POPS RANGING
FROM 20 PERCENT NORTH OF ORLANDO TO 30 PERCENT FARTHER SOUTH.
OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S.

WED-THU...SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER ENTIRE EASTERN U.S.
EVEN AS AN OUT-OF-SEASON FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMARKABLY REACHES THE S
THIRD OF THE FL PENINSULA. FRONT WEAKENS AND ERODES BUT ASSOCIATED
MOISTURE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SCATTERED STORMS SOUTH OF VERO BEACH
FOR TREASURE COAST AND VICINITY OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. ZONES NORTH OF
THIS AREA WILL REALIZE RARE POST FRONTAL CONDITIONS FOR JULY AND
REDUCED SUMMERTIME RAIN CHANCES. IN FACT...MODELS SUGGEST THAT
SIGNIFICANT DEEP LAYER DRYING NORTH OF ORLANDO/CANAVERAL WILL CURB
POPS...AND TO LEVELS TOO LOW TO MENTION GENERALLY NORTH AND WEST OF
INTERSTATE 4. FOR THU...SURFACE WIND FIELDS SLACKEN AND BECOME
VARIABLE BUT WITH AN ONSHORE AFTERNOON PUSH. MOST AVAILABLE MOISTURE
STILL GATHERED OVER S FL...BUT WITH SOME MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE COAST. RAIN CHANCES STILL BELOW NORMAL THU...BETTER TOWARD
TREASURE COAST. RATHER WARM WITH MAX TEMPS IN LOW/MID 90S EACH DAY.

FRI-MON...EASTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND BUT
BEGINS TO DAMPEN SUN INTO MON. SOMEWHAT CONFUSED SFC PRESSURE FIELD
FOR THE DEEP SOUTH AS TRACE MARKERS OF OLD/DIFFUSE FRONT LINGER
EVIDENT BY SUBTLE TROUGHING AND NARROW BANDED MOISTURE ALL
LIFTING NORTH AS SOUTHEASTERLIES OPEN UP AND RE-ESTABLISH FOR THE
PENINSULA. MAX TEMPS IN LOW TO MID 90S...BUT NOT QUITE AS WARM
ONCE SE FLOW BECOMES PREVALENT FOR THE WEEKEND. POPS NEAR NORMAL
WITH EMBEDDED SEA BREEZES WORKING INLAND.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL GIVE WAY TO TEMPO IFR/MVFR IN INCREASING
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS MOISTURE BUILDS AHEAD OF
A FRONT MOVING INTO NORTH FLORIDA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
PUSH EASTWARD MAINLY ACROSS AREAS FROM KISM/KMCO NORTHWARD THIS
MORNING AND THEN INCREASING IN COVERAGE FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS FRONT
BEGINS TO MOVE INTO NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA LATER TONIGHT. HAVE
VCSH/VCTS IN THE TAFS CURRENTLY BUT MAY NEED TO ADD TEMPO GROUPS FOR
THE 12Z ISSUANCE...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN TAF SITES WHERE
CONVECTION WILL START EARLIER.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY/TONIGHT...FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO NORTH FLORIDA WILL KEEP
A WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE WATERS. ELEVATED WINDS EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL DECREASE WITH WIND SPEEDS GENERALLY 10 TO 15 KNOTS OR
LESS OVER THE WATERS. SEAS UP TO 4 FEET POSSIBLE WELL OFFSHORE OF
VOLUSIA AND BREVARD COUNTIES THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE WAVE HEIGHTS
WILL BE 3 FEET OR LESS. MAIN CONCERN IS FOR OFFSHORE MOVING STORMS
WITH A FEW CONTAINING LOCALLY STRONG GUSTS.

WED-FRI...OUT-OF-SEASON FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN VICINITY OF LAKE
OKEECHOBEE AND JUPITER INLET FOR WED WILL SUPPORT SHOWERS AND STORMS
FOR WATERS SOUTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET. NORTHWARD...RAIN CHANCES WILL
BE BELOW NORMAL. SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW FOR WATERS SOUTH OF FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...AND RELAXING WINDS NORTH. NEARLY STALLED BOUNDARY
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND ERODE ON THU ALLOWING AN ONSHORE COMPONENT
TO LOCAL WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS. IMPROVED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES FOR FRI. SEAS 2-3 FEET...BUT 1 TO 2 FEET
NEARSHORE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  93  75  93  75 /  50  20  10  10
MCO  93  75  95  75 /  50  30  20  20
MLB  93  75  91  75 /  50  30  30  20
VRB  93  74  92  74 /  50  30  30  20
LEE  92  74  95  76 /  50  20  10  10
SFB  93  76  95  77 /  50  20  20  10
ORL  93  76  95  78 /  50  30  20  20
FPR  93  75  91  73 /  50  30  30  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM....DS









000
FXUS62 KMLB 290806
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
406 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY/TONIGHT...EASTERN U.S. TROUGH ALOFT CONTINUES TO DEEPEN
DRIVING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO NORTH FLORIDA. MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH PW VALUES UP TO 2 INCHES...
GENERATING GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INITIALLY PUSH EASTWARD
ACROSS AREAS FROM ORLANDO NORTHWARD AS EARLY AS THIS MORNING WITH
INCREASING COVERAGE FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE AFTERNOON. HAVE POPS UP
TO 50 PERCENT MOST AREAS WHICH IS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE MAV
GUIDANCE. OFFSHORE FLOW REMAINS STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT EAST COAST
SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE LACK OF SEA
BREEZE...HIGHER CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER WILL
LIKELY KEEP HIGHS NEAR NORMAL IN THE LOW 90S. HOWEVER THOSE AREAS
THAT SEE MORE SUNSHINE MAY BE ABLE TO REACH INTO THE MID 90S...
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST SOUTH OF THE CAPE.

AS FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES INTO NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA TONIGHT...DRIER
AIR WILL BEGIN TO WORK DOWN INTO THE REGION WITH RAIN CHANCES
GRADUALLY DECREASING. HOWEVER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING WITH POPS RANGING
FROM 20 PERCENT NORTH OF ORLANDO TO 30 PERCENT FARTHER SOUTH.
OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S.

WED-THU...SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER ENTIRE EASTERN U.S.
EVEN AS AN OUT-OF-SEASON FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMARKABLY REACHES THE S
THIRD OF THE FL PENINSULA. FRONT WEAKENS AND ERODES BUT ASSOCIATED
MOISTURE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SCATTERED STORMS SOUTH OF VERO BEACH
FOR TREASURE COAST AND VICINITY OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. ZONES NORTH OF
THIS AREA WILL REALIZE RARE POST FRONTAL CONDITIONS FOR JULY AND
REDUCED SUMMERTIME RAIN CHANCES. IN FACT...MODELS SUGGEST THAT
SIGNIFICANT DEEP LAYER DRYING NORTH OF ORLANDO/CANAVERAL WILL CURB
POPS...AND TO LEVELS TOO LOW TO MENTION GENERALLY NORTH AND WEST OF
INTERSTATE 4. FOR THU...SURFACE WIND FIELDS SLACKEN AND BECOME
VARIABLE BUT WITH AN ONSHORE AFTERNOON PUSH. MOST AVAILABLE MOISTURE
STILL GATHERED OVER S FL...BUT WITH SOME MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE COAST. RAIN CHANCES STILL BELOW NORMAL THU...BETTER TOWARD
TREASURE COAST. RATHER WARM WITH MAX TEMPS IN LOW/MID 90S EACH DAY.

FRI-MON...EASTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND BUT
BEGINS TO DAMPEN SUN INTO MON. SOMEWHAT CONFUSED SFC PRESSURE FIELD
FOR THE DEEP SOUTH AS TRACE MARKERS OF OLD/DIFFUSE FRONT LINGER
EVIDENT BY SUBTLE TROUGHING AND NARROW BANDED MOISTURE ALL
LIFTING NORTH AS SOUTHEASTERLIES OPEN UP AND RE-ESTABLISH FOR THE
PENINSULA. MAX TEMPS IN LOW TO MID 90S...BUT NOT QUITE AS WARM
ONCE SE FLOW BECOMES PREVALENT FOR THE WEEKEND. POPS NEAR NORMAL
WITH EMBEDDED SEA BREEZES WORKING INLAND.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL GIVE WAY TO TEMPO IFR/MVFR IN INCREASING
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS MOISTURE BUILDS AHEAD OF
A FRONT MOVING INTO NORTH FLORIDA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
PUSH EASTWARD MAINLY ACROSS AREAS FROM KISM/KMCO NORTHWARD THIS
MORNING AND THEN INCREASING IN COVERAGE FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS FRONT
BEGINS TO MOVE INTO NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA LATER TONIGHT. HAVE
VCSH/VCTS IN THE TAFS CURRENTLY BUT MAY NEED TO ADD TEMPO GROUPS FOR
THE 12Z ISSUANCE...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN TAF SITES WHERE
CONVECTION WILL START EARLIER.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY/TONIGHT...FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO NORTH FLORIDA WILL KEEP
A WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE WATERS. ELEVATED WINDS EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL DECREASE WITH WIND SPEEDS GENERALLY 10 TO 15 KNOTS OR
LESS OVER THE WATERS. SEAS UP TO 4 FEET POSSIBLE WELL OFFSHORE OF
VOLUSIA AND BREVARD COUNTIES THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE WAVE HEIGHTS
WILL BE 3 FEET OR LESS. MAIN CONCERN IS FOR OFFSHORE MOVING STORMS
WITH A FEW CONTAINING LOCALLY STRONG GUSTS.

WED-FRI...OUT-OF-SEASON FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN VICINITY OF LAKE
OKEECHOBEE AND JUPITER INLET FOR WED WILL SUPPORT SHOWERS AND STORMS
FOR WATERS SOUTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET. NORTHWARD...RAIN CHANCES WILL
BE BELOW NORMAL. SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW FOR WATERS SOUTH OF FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...AND RELAXING WINDS NORTH. NEARLY STALLED BOUNDARY
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND ERODE ON THU ALLOWING AN ONSHORE COMPONENT
TO LOCAL WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS. IMPROVED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES FOR FRI. SEAS 2-3 FEET...BUT 1 TO 2 FEET
NEARSHORE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  93  75  93  75 /  50  20  10  10
MCO  93  75  95  75 /  50  30  20  20
MLB  93  75  91  75 /  50  30  30  20
VRB  93  74  92  74 /  50  30  30  20
LEE  92  74  95  76 /  50  20  10  10
SFB  93  76  95  77 /  50  20  20  10
ORL  93  76  95  78 /  50  30  20  20
FPR  93  75  91  73 /  50  30  30  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM....DS








000
FXUS62 KMLB 281945
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
345 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT... LARGER SYNOPTIC VIEW SHOWS UNUSUAL JULY
FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON WITH A WEAK
PRE- FRONTAL TROUGH ALREADY SLIDING ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA. AS
EXPECTED...CONVECTION ACROSS THE CENTRAL PENINSULA HAS BEEN WELL
BELOW WHAT WOULD BE EXPECTED FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS TRACKING QUICKLY EAST ACROSS THE
STATE. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE CURRENT PATTERN THROUGH THE EVENING
WITH A FEW STORMS LINGERING NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND PERHAPS SOME
ACTIVITY FROM NORTH FLORIDA BRUSHING N LAKE/VOLUSIA AROUND SUNSET.
WITH LITTLE CONVECTION/CLOUD COVER AND NO SEA
BREEZE...TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE LOW-MID 90S AND WILL
LIKELY SEE A FEW MORE DEGREES BEFORE COOLING OFF THIS EVENING.
THIS WILL PLACE HEAT INDICIES INTO THE 100-105
RANGE...UNCOMFORTABLE...BUT NOT TOO UNUSUAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

FRONT MOVES INTO NORTH FLORIDA BY LATE TONIGHT WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. WILL SEE A FEW SHOWERS TRACK FROM
THE GULF ACROSS LAKE AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES LATER TONIGHT WITH
INCREASING COVERAGE TOWARDS DAYBREAK. LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE
FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S...EXCEPT LOW 70S ACROSS OKEECHOBEE
COUNTY.

TUESDAY...EASTERN US TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN GIVING ENOUGH
MOMENTUM TO DRIVE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE CENTRAL PENINSULA
ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHER MOISTURE AND ADDITIONAL LIFT FROM THE FRONT
BRINGING A RETURN TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING MOST OF
THE DAY. BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL LIKELY TRACK FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
WITH TIME ALONG THE FRONT...AIDED BY DAYTIME HEATING. POPS 50
PERCENT ACROSS THE ORLANDO METRO NORTH AND 40 PERCENT FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION. STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
HOLD OFF THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE AND KEEP TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL IN
THE LOW 90S.

WEDNESDAY...MODELS CONSISTENT ON HAVING A PROPER FRONTAL PASSAGE
AND BRINGING IN A NOTABLE DRY AIR PUSH BEHIND THE BOUNDARY EVEN
AT THE LOW LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY. HAVE REMOVED THE MENTION OF PRECIP
FROM VOLUSIA-ORLANDO NORTHWARDS WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE FIRMLY IN
THE POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE VOLUSIA COAST AS
DEVELOPING E-NE FLOW MAY BE ABLE TO DEVELOP A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS.

FURTHER SOUTH...BEST RAIN CHANCES REMAIN IN PROXIMITY TO THE
BOUNDARY WITH POPS RANGING FROM AROUND 20 PERCENT ACROSS
BREVARD/OSCEOLA TO 40 PERCENT ALONG THE TREASURE COAST AND LAKE
OKEECHOBEE.

FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THU-SUN...CHANCE FOR BOUNDARY TO REACH S END OF THE PENINSULA FOR
THU AND FRI AS IT FURTHER WEAKENS AND ERODES. BEST RAIN CHANCES
FOR THE LOWER TREASURE COAST IN PROXIMITY. OTHERWISE...BELOW
NORMAL POPS THU GRADUALLY INCREASING FRI INTO WEEKEND TO NEAR
NORMAL VALUES. PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGHINESS OVER EASTERN U.S. WILL
KEEP THINGS INTERESTING AND ATYPICAL. HOWEVER...LOCAL LOW-LEVEL
WIND FIELDS SHOULD SLACKEN TO ALLOW LOCAL CIRCULATIONS TO BE THE
PRIMARY CONVECTIVE GOVERNOR.


&&

.AVIATION...
ISOLD SHRA/TSRA ACROSS REGION THROUGH 23Z. A FEW STRONGER
SHOWERS/STORMS MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS 30KTS. PREVAILING VFR
OVERNIGHT AS FRONT MOVES INTO N FLORIDA...COULD SEE ISOLD SHRA
MOVING IN FROM GULF COAST AFFECTING KLEE AND ORLANDO SITES AS
EARLY AS 29/12Z. OTHERWISE...UNUSUAL JULY FRONT WILL BRING SCT-
NMRS SHRA/TSRA FROM THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...

TONIGHT-TUESDAY...MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW TONIGHT WITH
WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS INCREASING TO 15-20 KNOTS
OFFSHORE NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET TONIGHT. WILL MENTION EXERCISE
CAUTION IN THESE AREAS FOR TONIGHT WHICH WILL LIKELY LINGER
THROUGH SUNRISE ON TUESDAY.

PREVAILING 10-15KTS SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DURING THE DAY ON TUES. SEAS 2-3FT NEARSHORE AND 3-4FT
OFFSHORE INCREASING TO 2-4FT NEARSHORE AND 3-5FT OFFSHORE LATE
TONIGHT AND THROUGH TUES AS SOME LONGER SWELL WORKS ITS WAY INTO
THE LOCAL WATERS.

WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY...OUT OF SEASON FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OUT IN
THE VICINITY THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WITH EAST-
NORTHEAST FLOW NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET OR SO AND S-SW FLOW TO THE
SOUTH OF THE INLET. HOWEVER WITH THE FRONT IN THE VICINITY...THE
GRADIENT WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH THAT THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE MAY
DEVELOP WITH WINDS TURNING ONSHORE NEAR THE COAST IN THE
AFTERNOONS EVEN FURTHER SOUTH. SEAS 2-3FT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  77  90  75  92 /  20  50  30  10
MCO  77  92  75  94 /  10  50  30  10
MLB  76  91  74  91 /  20  40  40  20
VRB  76  93  74  92 /  20  40  40  40
LEE  78  93  76  94 /  20  50  30  10
SFB  78  92  76  94 /  20  50  30  10
ORL  78  92  78  94 /  10  50  30  10
FPR  76  92  73  91 /  20  40  40  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

FORECAST/AVIATION...MOSES
RADAR/IMPACT WEATHER....LASCODY







000
FXUS62 KMLB 281945
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
345 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT... LARGER SYNOPTIC VIEW SHOWS UNUSUAL JULY
FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON WITH A WEAK
PRE- FRONTAL TROUGH ALREADY SLIDING ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA. AS
EXPECTED...CONVECTION ACROSS THE CENTRAL PENINSULA HAS BEEN WELL
BELOW WHAT WOULD BE EXPECTED FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS TRACKING QUICKLY EAST ACROSS THE
STATE. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE CURRENT PATTERN THROUGH THE EVENING
WITH A FEW STORMS LINGERING NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND PERHAPS SOME
ACTIVITY FROM NORTH FLORIDA BRUSHING N LAKE/VOLUSIA AROUND SUNSET.
WITH LITTLE CONVECTION/CLOUD COVER AND NO SEA
BREEZE...TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE LOW-MID 90S AND WILL
LIKELY SEE A FEW MORE DEGREES BEFORE COOLING OFF THIS EVENING.
THIS WILL PLACE HEAT INDICIES INTO THE 100-105
RANGE...UNCOMFORTABLE...BUT NOT TOO UNUSUAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

FRONT MOVES INTO NORTH FLORIDA BY LATE TONIGHT WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. WILL SEE A FEW SHOWERS TRACK FROM
THE GULF ACROSS LAKE AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES LATER TONIGHT WITH
INCREASING COVERAGE TOWARDS DAYBREAK. LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE
FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S...EXCEPT LOW 70S ACROSS OKEECHOBEE
COUNTY.

TUESDAY...EASTERN US TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN GIVING ENOUGH
MOMENTUM TO DRIVE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE CENTRAL PENINSULA
ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHER MOISTURE AND ADDITIONAL LIFT FROM THE FRONT
BRINGING A RETURN TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING MOST OF
THE DAY. BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL LIKELY TRACK FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
WITH TIME ALONG THE FRONT...AIDED BY DAYTIME HEATING. POPS 50
PERCENT ACROSS THE ORLANDO METRO NORTH AND 40 PERCENT FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION. STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
HOLD OFF THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE AND KEEP TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL IN
THE LOW 90S.

WEDNESDAY...MODELS CONSISTENT ON HAVING A PROPER FRONTAL PASSAGE
AND BRINGING IN A NOTABLE DRY AIR PUSH BEHIND THE BOUNDARY EVEN
AT THE LOW LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY. HAVE REMOVED THE MENTION OF PRECIP
FROM VOLUSIA-ORLANDO NORTHWARDS WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE FIRMLY IN
THE POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE VOLUSIA COAST AS
DEVELOPING E-NE FLOW MAY BE ABLE TO DEVELOP A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS.

FURTHER SOUTH...BEST RAIN CHANCES REMAIN IN PROXIMITY TO THE
BOUNDARY WITH POPS RANGING FROM AROUND 20 PERCENT ACROSS
BREVARD/OSCEOLA TO 40 PERCENT ALONG THE TREASURE COAST AND LAKE
OKEECHOBEE.

FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THU-SUN...CHANCE FOR BOUNDARY TO REACH S END OF THE PENINSULA FOR
THU AND FRI AS IT FURTHER WEAKENS AND ERODES. BEST RAIN CHANCES
FOR THE LOWER TREASURE COAST IN PROXIMITY. OTHERWISE...BELOW
NORMAL POPS THU GRADUALLY INCREASING FRI INTO WEEKEND TO NEAR
NORMAL VALUES. PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGHINESS OVER EASTERN U.S. WILL
KEEP THINGS INTERESTING AND ATYPICAL. HOWEVER...LOCAL LOW-LEVEL
WIND FIELDS SHOULD SLACKEN TO ALLOW LOCAL CIRCULATIONS TO BE THE
PRIMARY CONVECTIVE GOVERNOR.


&&

.AVIATION...
ISOLD SHRA/TSRA ACROSS REGION THROUGH 23Z. A FEW STRONGER
SHOWERS/STORMS MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS 30KTS. PREVAILING VFR
OVERNIGHT AS FRONT MOVES INTO N FLORIDA...COULD SEE ISOLD SHRA
MOVING IN FROM GULF COAST AFFECTING KLEE AND ORLANDO SITES AS
EARLY AS 29/12Z. OTHERWISE...UNUSUAL JULY FRONT WILL BRING SCT-
NMRS SHRA/TSRA FROM THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...

TONIGHT-TUESDAY...MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW TONIGHT WITH
WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS INCREASING TO 15-20 KNOTS
OFFSHORE NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET TONIGHT. WILL MENTION EXERCISE
CAUTION IN THESE AREAS FOR TONIGHT WHICH WILL LIKELY LINGER
THROUGH SUNRISE ON TUESDAY.

PREVAILING 10-15KTS SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DURING THE DAY ON TUES. SEAS 2-3FT NEARSHORE AND 3-4FT
OFFSHORE INCREASING TO 2-4FT NEARSHORE AND 3-5FT OFFSHORE LATE
TONIGHT AND THROUGH TUES AS SOME LONGER SWELL WORKS ITS WAY INTO
THE LOCAL WATERS.

WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY...OUT OF SEASON FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OUT IN
THE VICINITY THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WITH EAST-
NORTHEAST FLOW NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET OR SO AND S-SW FLOW TO THE
SOUTH OF THE INLET. HOWEVER WITH THE FRONT IN THE VICINITY...THE
GRADIENT WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH THAT THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE MAY
DEVELOP WITH WINDS TURNING ONSHORE NEAR THE COAST IN THE
AFTERNOONS EVEN FURTHER SOUTH. SEAS 2-3FT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  77  90  75  92 /  20  50  30  10
MCO  77  92  75  94 /  10  50  30  10
MLB  76  91  74  91 /  20  40  40  20
VRB  76  93  74  92 /  20  40  40  40
LEE  78  93  76  94 /  20  50  30  10
SFB  78  92  76  94 /  20  50  30  10
ORL  78  92  78  94 /  10  50  30  10
FPR  76  92  73  91 /  20  40  40  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

FORECAST/AVIATION...MOSES
RADAR/IMPACT WEATHER....LASCODY








000
FXUS62 KMLB 281246
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
845 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SYNOPTIC PATTERN SLOWLY CHANGING TODAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL EAST COAST
TROUGH DEEPENS AND PUSHES ANOTHER USUAL SUMMER FRONT INTO FLORIDA
LATER TODAY.

WHILE THE FRONT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING DEEP WESTERLY FLOW. EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL BE HARD
PRESSED TO DEVELOP IN THE 15-20KTS OF WESTERLY FLOW THE 915MHZ
PROFILERS ARE SHOWING JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...WON`T RULE OUT IT DEVELOPING ALONG THE BARRIER ISLANDS ON
THE TREASURE COAST.

MORNING SOUNDINGS AND WATER VAPOR ANALYSIS SHOW A FAIRLY DEEP LAYER
OF DRIER AIR IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING
WITH PWATS AROUND 1.6"-1.7" AND TEMPS ALOFT A LESS THAN IDEAL
+9/+10C AT 700 MB. DESPITE THIS THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW SHOWERS
PUSHING ONTO THE WEST FLORIDA COAST ALONG SEVERAL CONVERGENCE
BANDS...SIMILAR TO WHAT HAS HAPPENED IN THE PAST FEW DAYS. THESE
WILL BE THE INITIATORS OF ACTIVITY LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AS THEY AND THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE MOVE ACROSS THE
PENINSULA. HOWEVER OVERALL COVERAGE IS EXPECTED OT REMAIN
ISOLATED...WITH A LITTLE HIGHER COVERAGE AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND
THE TREASURE COAST WHERE THE WEST-NORTHWEST STEERING FLOW WILL PUSH
ACTIVITY IN COMBINATION WITH THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE BREEZE.

WITH LOWER RAIN COVERAGE AND OFFSHORE FLOW IT WILL BE A HOT AND
MUGGY DAY ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE MID 90S
EVERYWHERE...AND WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED A FEW UPPER 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...
PREVAILING VFR. DRIER AIR WILL LEAD TO LOWER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS. ISOLD SHRA VCNTY KLEE AFTER 14Z AS WEST COAST SEA BREEZE
MOVES INLAND WITH A FEW TSRA VCNTY ORLANDO METRO AND KDAB AFTER 17Z.
WDLY SCT SHRA/TSRA ALONG COAST FROM KTIX SOUTHWARDS AFTER 19Z WITH
BEST COVERAGE SOUTH OF A KOBE-KVRB LINE. DUE TO LOWER
COVERAGE...HAVE KEPT TEMPO GROUPS OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW AND EVEN VCTS
IN MANY LOCATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
INCREASING OFFSHORE FLOW AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST TODAY. WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS
10-15 KNOTS WITH SEAS 1-2 FEET NEARSHORE AND 2-3 FEET OFFSHORE INTO
THIS EVENING....INCREASING TO 15-20 KNOTS WITH SEAS UP TO 4 FEET
OFFSHORE TONIGHT. LOWER THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE EXPECTED TODAY...BUT
ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ABLE TO PUSH
OFFSHORE AND MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

FORECAST/AVIATION...MOSES
IMPACT WEATHER/RADAR...LASCODY












000
FXUS62 KMLB 281246
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
845 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SYNOPTIC PATTERN SLOWLY CHANGING TODAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL EAST COAST
TROUGH DEEPENS AND PUSHES ANOTHER USUAL SUMMER FRONT INTO FLORIDA
LATER TODAY.

WHILE THE FRONT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING DEEP WESTERLY FLOW. EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL BE HARD
PRESSED TO DEVELOP IN THE 15-20KTS OF WESTERLY FLOW THE 915MHZ
PROFILERS ARE SHOWING JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...WON`T RULE OUT IT DEVELOPING ALONG THE BARRIER ISLANDS ON
THE TREASURE COAST.

MORNING SOUNDINGS AND WATER VAPOR ANALYSIS SHOW A FAIRLY DEEP LAYER
OF DRIER AIR IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING
WITH PWATS AROUND 1.6"-1.7" AND TEMPS ALOFT A LESS THAN IDEAL
+9/+10C AT 700 MB. DESPITE THIS THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW SHOWERS
PUSHING ONTO THE WEST FLORIDA COAST ALONG SEVERAL CONVERGENCE
BANDS...SIMILAR TO WHAT HAS HAPPENED IN THE PAST FEW DAYS. THESE
WILL BE THE INITIATORS OF ACTIVITY LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AS THEY AND THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE MOVE ACROSS THE
PENINSULA. HOWEVER OVERALL COVERAGE IS EXPECTED OT REMAIN
ISOLATED...WITH A LITTLE HIGHER COVERAGE AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND
THE TREASURE COAST WHERE THE WEST-NORTHWEST STEERING FLOW WILL PUSH
ACTIVITY IN COMBINATION WITH THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE BREEZE.

WITH LOWER RAIN COVERAGE AND OFFSHORE FLOW IT WILL BE A HOT AND
MUGGY DAY ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE MID 90S
EVERYWHERE...AND WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED A FEW UPPER 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...
PREVAILING VFR. DRIER AIR WILL LEAD TO LOWER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS. ISOLD SHRA VCNTY KLEE AFTER 14Z AS WEST COAST SEA BREEZE
MOVES INLAND WITH A FEW TSRA VCNTY ORLANDO METRO AND KDAB AFTER 17Z.
WDLY SCT SHRA/TSRA ALONG COAST FROM KTIX SOUTHWARDS AFTER 19Z WITH
BEST COVERAGE SOUTH OF A KOBE-KVRB LINE. DUE TO LOWER
COVERAGE...HAVE KEPT TEMPO GROUPS OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW AND EVEN VCTS
IN MANY LOCATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
INCREASING OFFSHORE FLOW AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST TODAY. WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS
10-15 KNOTS WITH SEAS 1-2 FEET NEARSHORE AND 2-3 FEET OFFSHORE INTO
THIS EVENING....INCREASING TO 15-20 KNOTS WITH SEAS UP TO 4 FEET
OFFSHORE TONIGHT. LOWER THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE EXPECTED TODAY...BUT
ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ABLE TO PUSH
OFFSHORE AND MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

FORECAST/AVIATION...MOSES
IMPACT WEATHER/RADAR...LASCODY











000
FXUS62 KMLB 280751
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
351 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY/TONIGHT...FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST STATES
BUT REMAINS NORTH OF FLORIDA TODAY. A STRENGTHENING DEEP WESTERLY
FLOW WILL DEVELOP AS A RESULT OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA. RH CROSS
SECTIONS SHOW A FAIRLY DEEP LAYER OF DRIER AIR IN THE MID LEVELS
ACROSS THE REGION BY MORNING AND TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER
THAN NORMAL. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO LOWER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS FORMING ALONG
THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE AND PUSHING EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. WILL
KEEP POPS RANGING FROM 20 PERCENT OVER MUCH OF THE AREA TO 30
PERCENT CLOSER TO LAKE OKEECHOBEE WHERE SLIGHTLY GREATER MOISTURE
EXISTS. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE FROM DEVELOPING TODAY...SO EXPECT HIGHS EVEN AT THE
COAST TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S.

FRONT MOVES INTO NORTH FLORIDA BY LATE TONIGHT WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. WILL THEREFORE KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS LAKE AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES OVERNIGHT.
LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S...EXCEPT LOW 70S
ACROSS OKEECHOBEE COUNTY.

TUE-WED...UPPER TROUGH REMAINS PRESENT OVER EASTERN U.S. THRU THE
PERIOD WITH SUFFICIENT AMPLITUDE TO EXTEND BASE WELL SOUTH INTO
DIXIE. SETUP IN PLACE TO MOVE AN OUT-OF-SEASON FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO
N FL TUE AND FLIRT WITH CENTRAL FL WED. ASSOCIATED BANDED MOISTURE
WILL SERVE TO RETURN HIGHER POPS TO THE FORECAST TUE BUT WITH
SYNOPTIC EFFECTS ON DISTRIBUTION AND TIMING OF STORMS. GFS SHOWS
OPPORTUNITY FOR BANDED HIGHER POPS INTO S THIRD OF PENINSULA WED.
WSW PREFRONTAL/FRONTAL WINDS THE GENERAL FLOW POSTURE. WARM WITH MAX
TEMPS LOW TO MID 90S WITH 40-50 PERCENT POPS...BUT LOWER POPS BEHIND
THE BOUNDARY RELATIVE TO ITS SOUTHWARD REACHING EXTENT FOR
WED.

THU-SUN...CHANCE FOR BOUNDARY TO REACH S END OF THE PENINSULA FOR
THU AND FRI AS IT FURTHER WEAKENS AND ERODES. BEST RAIN CHANCES FOR
THE LOWER TREASURE COAST IN PROXIMITY. OTHERWISE...BELOW NORMAL POPS
THU GRADUALLY INCREASING FRI INTO WEEKEND TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES.
PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGHINESS OVER EASTERN U.S. WILL KEEP THINGS
INTERESTING AND ATYPICAL. HOWEVER...LOCAL LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS
SHOULD SLACKEN TO ALLOW LOCAL CIRCULATIONS TO BE THE PRIMARY
CONVECTIVE GOVERNOR.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS GENERALLY EXPECTED. DRIER AIR WILL LEAD TO
LOWER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...GENERALLY REMAINING ISOLATED
AS THEY MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPO IFR/MVFR
CONDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY BUT DUE TO LOWER
RAIN CHANCES HAVE KEPT VCTS OR TEMPO GROUPS OUT OF THE TAFS FOR
NOW.


&&

.MARINE...

TODAY/TONIGHT...FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST STATES
WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASING OFFSHORE FLOW TODAY. WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL EXIST UP TO 10-15 KNOTS WITH SEAS 1-2 FEET NEARSHORE AND 2-3
FEET OFFSHORE. WIND SPEEDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OFFSHORE INTO
TONIGHT UP TO 15-20 KNOTS WITH SEAS UP TO 4 FEET. LOWER THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE EXPECTED TODAY...BUT ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE ABLE TO PUSH OFFSHORE AND MAY PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS.

TUE-FRI...OUT-OF-SEASON FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE N FL WATERS
AND INCREASES STORM CHANCES ONCE AGAIN FOR TUE AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM.
OFFSHORE SEAS 3-4 FEET N OF CAPE CANAVERAL...OTHERWISE 3 FEET OR
LESS. WITH OFFSHORE MOVING WINDS...WAVE HEIGHTS 1-2 FEET NEARSHORE.
WED MUCH LIKE TUE EXCEPT EMPHASIS AREA SHIFTS S OF SEBASTIAN INLET
WITH BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS. SEAS 3 FEET OR LESS ALL WATERS. WIND
RELAXES BEYOND WED INTO FRI WITH AN ONSHORE COMPONENT IN THE
AFTERNOON.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  94  77  94  74 /  20  20  50  30
MCO  94  76  94  75 /  20  10  50  30
MLB  95  78  93  74 /  20  20  40  30
VRB  93  76  92  74 /  20  20  40  30
LEE  93  78  94  76 /  20  20  50  30
SFB  95  78  94  76 /  20  10  50  30
ORL  94  78  94  77 /  20  10  50  30
FPR  93  75  92  74 /  30  20  40  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...WEITLICH
LONG TERM....SHARP








000
FXUS62 KMLB 280751
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
351 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY/TONIGHT...FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST STATES
BUT REMAINS NORTH OF FLORIDA TODAY. A STRENGTHENING DEEP WESTERLY
FLOW WILL DEVELOP AS A RESULT OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA. RH CROSS
SECTIONS SHOW A FAIRLY DEEP LAYER OF DRIER AIR IN THE MID LEVELS
ACROSS THE REGION BY MORNING AND TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER
THAN NORMAL. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO LOWER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS FORMING ALONG
THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE AND PUSHING EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. WILL
KEEP POPS RANGING FROM 20 PERCENT OVER MUCH OF THE AREA TO 30
PERCENT CLOSER TO LAKE OKEECHOBEE WHERE SLIGHTLY GREATER MOISTURE
EXISTS. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE FROM DEVELOPING TODAY...SO EXPECT HIGHS EVEN AT THE
COAST TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S.

FRONT MOVES INTO NORTH FLORIDA BY LATE TONIGHT WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. WILL THEREFORE KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS LAKE AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES OVERNIGHT.
LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S...EXCEPT LOW 70S
ACROSS OKEECHOBEE COUNTY.

TUE-WED...UPPER TROUGH REMAINS PRESENT OVER EASTERN U.S. THRU THE
PERIOD WITH SUFFICIENT AMPLITUDE TO EXTEND BASE WELL SOUTH INTO
DIXIE. SETUP IN PLACE TO MOVE AN OUT-OF-SEASON FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO
N FL TUE AND FLIRT WITH CENTRAL FL WED. ASSOCIATED BANDED MOISTURE
WILL SERVE TO RETURN HIGHER POPS TO THE FORECAST TUE BUT WITH
SYNOPTIC EFFECTS ON DISTRIBUTION AND TIMING OF STORMS. GFS SHOWS
OPPORTUNITY FOR BANDED HIGHER POPS INTO S THIRD OF PENINSULA WED.
WSW PREFRONTAL/FRONTAL WINDS THE GENERAL FLOW POSTURE. WARM WITH MAX
TEMPS LOW TO MID 90S WITH 40-50 PERCENT POPS...BUT LOWER POPS BEHIND
THE BOUNDARY RELATIVE TO ITS SOUTHWARD REACHING EXTENT FOR
WED.

THU-SUN...CHANCE FOR BOUNDARY TO REACH S END OF THE PENINSULA FOR
THU AND FRI AS IT FURTHER WEAKENS AND ERODES. BEST RAIN CHANCES FOR
THE LOWER TREASURE COAST IN PROXIMITY. OTHERWISE...BELOW NORMAL POPS
THU GRADUALLY INCREASING FRI INTO WEEKEND TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES.
PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGHINESS OVER EASTERN U.S. WILL KEEP THINGS
INTERESTING AND ATYPICAL. HOWEVER...LOCAL LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS
SHOULD SLACKEN TO ALLOW LOCAL CIRCULATIONS TO BE THE PRIMARY
CONVECTIVE GOVERNOR.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS GENERALLY EXPECTED. DRIER AIR WILL LEAD TO
LOWER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...GENERALLY REMAINING ISOLATED
AS THEY MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPO IFR/MVFR
CONDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY BUT DUE TO LOWER
RAIN CHANCES HAVE KEPT VCTS OR TEMPO GROUPS OUT OF THE TAFS FOR
NOW.


&&

.MARINE...

TODAY/TONIGHT...FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST STATES
WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASING OFFSHORE FLOW TODAY. WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL EXIST UP TO 10-15 KNOTS WITH SEAS 1-2 FEET NEARSHORE AND 2-3
FEET OFFSHORE. WIND SPEEDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OFFSHORE INTO
TONIGHT UP TO 15-20 KNOTS WITH SEAS UP TO 4 FEET. LOWER THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE EXPECTED TODAY...BUT ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE ABLE TO PUSH OFFSHORE AND MAY PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS.

TUE-FRI...OUT-OF-SEASON FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE N FL WATERS
AND INCREASES STORM CHANCES ONCE AGAIN FOR TUE AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM.
OFFSHORE SEAS 3-4 FEET N OF CAPE CANAVERAL...OTHERWISE 3 FEET OR
LESS. WITH OFFSHORE MOVING WINDS...WAVE HEIGHTS 1-2 FEET NEARSHORE.
WED MUCH LIKE TUE EXCEPT EMPHASIS AREA SHIFTS S OF SEBASTIAN INLET
WITH BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS. SEAS 3 FEET OR LESS ALL WATERS. WIND
RELAXES BEYOND WED INTO FRI WITH AN ONSHORE COMPONENT IN THE
AFTERNOON.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  94  77  94  74 /  20  20  50  30
MCO  94  76  94  75 /  20  10  50  30
MLB  95  78  93  74 /  20  20  40  30
VRB  93  76  92  74 /  20  20  40  30
LEE  93  78  94  76 /  20  20  50  30
SFB  95  78  94  76 /  20  10  50  30
ORL  94  78  94  77 /  20  10  50  30
FPR  93  75  92  74 /  30  20  40  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...WEITLICH
LONG TERM....SHARP







000
FXUS62 KMLB 280150
AFDMLB

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
950 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WLY GRADIENT WINDS WERE A LITTLE STRONGER AND LED TO LESS BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. THIS COUPLED WITH SOME ATMOSPHERIC
DRYING REDUCED AFTERNOON COVERAGE OF STORMS. PRECIP OVER LAND HAS
BEEN REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST FOR OVERNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDS OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. LOWER COVERAGE OF PCPN IS
FORECAST AGAIN ON MONDAY WITH ACTIVITY ONCE AGAIN FAVORING TREASURE
COAST AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
NO SIG CHG TO CURRENT FORECAST WITH FETCH LIMITED CONDS AND MOSTLY
WIND WAVES WHICH GROW SLIGHTLY AS ONE MOVES AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE
COAST. SEAS 1 TO 2 FT NEAR COAST AND AROUND 2 TO 3 FT WELL OFFSHORE.


&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

JP/MB







000
FXUS62 KMLB 280150
AFDMLB

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
950 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WLY GRADIENT WINDS WERE A LITTLE STRONGER AND LED TO LESS BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. THIS COUPLED WITH SOME ATMOSPHERIC
DRYING REDUCED AFTERNOON COVERAGE OF STORMS. PRECIP OVER LAND HAS
BEEN REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST FOR OVERNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDS OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. LOWER COVERAGE OF PCPN IS
FORECAST AGAIN ON MONDAY WITH ACTIVITY ONCE AGAIN FAVORING TREASURE
COAST AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
NO SIG CHG TO CURRENT FORECAST WITH FETCH LIMITED CONDS AND MOSTLY
WIND WAVES WHICH GROW SLIGHTLY AS ONE MOVES AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE
COAST. SEAS 1 TO 2 FT NEAR COAST AND AROUND 2 TO 3 FT WELL OFFSHORE.


&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

JP/MB






000
FXUS62 KMLB 271947
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
347 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...COMBINED WEST COAST SEA BREEZE/OUTLFOW
BOUNDARY HAS VERY QUICKLY SCOURED OUT MOST LOCATIONS NORTH OF
OSCEOLA AND SOUTH BREVARD WITH THE ASSOCIATED LINE OF STORMS NOW
PUSHING OFF THE COAST. ENOUGH DAYLIGHT AND HEATING REMAINS THAT AN
ADDITIONAL STORM OR TWO ACROSS THESE LOCATIONS...BUT WITH
INCREASING SUPPRESSION FROM THE RIDGE AND DRYING ALOFT EXPECT A
PARTLY CLOUDY AND DRY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR MOST HERE.

FURTHER SOUTH...THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE HAS DEVELOPED FROM THE
CAPE SOUTHWARDS AND EVEN PUSHED WEST OF THE COASTAL CITIES ALONG
THE TREASURE COAST (IT REMAINS ON THE BARRIER ISLAND IN BREVARD).
A WEAK CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY IN COMBINATION WITH THE LAKE
OKEECHOBEE BREEZE HAS SPARKED A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE
SAINT LUCIE COAST SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON...BUT EXPECT MORE ACTIVITY
TO ARRIVE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE DIFFUSE WEST COAST SEA
BREEZE COLLIDES WITH THE EAST COAST. BREVARD AND OSCEOLA COUNTIES
WILL SEE A LITTLE LESS ACTIVITY...MAINLY ALONG A SOUTHWARD MOVING
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE EARLIER ACTIVITY FURTHER NORTH...THOUGH
THE BREVARD COAST MAY SEE AN UPSWING IF THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
CAN SURVIVE A MID AFTERNOON COLLISION.

MOST ACTIVITY WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST BY SUNSET WITH SKIES
BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY...LOOKS TO BE THE DRIEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS WE REMAIN
MOSTLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN EASTERN EXTENSION OF THE LARGE
RIDGE OVER THE S CENTRAL US. EASTERN US TROUGH WILL DEEPEN DURING
THE DAY ERODING THE RIDGE...WITH A SURFACE FRONT WORKING INTO
NORTH FLORIDA BY THE EVENING.

ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA HOWEVER...ALTHOUGH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES REMAIN NEAR 1.8 INCHES UNDER WHAT IS USUALLY FAVORABLE
WESTERLY FLOW...MEAN LOW- MID LEVEL RH FALLS TO 45-50 PERCENT AND
MID LEVEL TEMPS ARE A RATHER WARM -5C AT 500MB AND +10 TO +11C AT
700MB. HAVE MADE NO CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST WHICH IS IN
LINE WITH LATEST MOS POPS WITH ISOLATED DIURNAL COVERAGE /20 POP/
MOST AREAS...EXCEPT SCATTERED /30 POP/ FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE
VICINITY WHERE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS AND BIT HIGHER MOISTURE
SHOULD LOCALLY ENHANCE ACTIVITY. MAX TEMPS MID 90S INLAND AND
LOW/MID 90S COAST AS W/SW FLOW HOLDS OFF SEA BREEZE EXCEPT FOR FAR
SE COAST WHERE LATE DAY WIND SHIFT POSSIBLE.

FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TUE-WED...UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE AND SHARPENS AMPLITUDE AS
ANOMALOUS CUT-OFF DROPS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. THIS PATTERN WILL
FORCE A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED BAND OF DEEP
MOISTURE INTO NORTHERN PENINSULA EARLY TUE...NORTHERN CWA BY LATE
IN THE DAY...AND SAGGING TO SOUTHERN CWA WED. HIGHEST SHOWER/STORM
COVERAGE EXPECTED TUE...THEN GRADIENT BECOMES EVIDENT WED WITH
HIGHEST POPS SOUTH AND LESSER COVERAGE NORTH. TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.

THU-SAT...BOUNDARY MAY REACH AS FAR AS LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION
THU/FRI. VERY LIGHT SURFACE WINDS IN WAKE OF BOUNDARY WITH
OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUING ALOFT DUE TO PERSISTENCE OF MID/UPPER
TROUGH SHOULD PROMOTE NUMEROUS BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS WITH NEAR
CLIMO POPS. TEMPS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...
QUICK MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/WEST COAST SEA BREEZE HAS ALREADY
PUSHED MOST SHRA/TSRA OFF THE COAST NORTH OF KMLB THOUGH VERY
ISOLD ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP BACK BEHIND IT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON. MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ALONG COAST FORM KMLB SOUTHWARDS
WITH COLLISIONS OF NUMEROUS BOUNDARIES BRINGING SCT TSRA THROUGH
23Z. MOST SHRA/TSRA MOVING OFFSHORE BY 00Z WITH PREVAILING VFR
OVERNIGHT. LOWER COVERAGE ON MONDAY WITH ACTIVITY ONCE AGAIN
FAVORING TREASURE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...

TONIGHT-MONDAY...WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW PICKS UP TO 10-15KTS LATE
THIS EVENING INTO MONDAY AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WORKING THROUGH THE EASTERN US AND DEEP SOUTH. COULD SEE
A SOLID 15KTS OR EVEN 15-20KTS OFFSHORE THE VOLUSIA COUNTY COAST
BUT PREVAILING LOOKS TO REMAIN IN THE 10-15KTS RANGE. WINDS WILL
BE TO STRONG FOR ANY SEA BREEZE COMPONENT MONDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS
1-3 FEET NEARSHORE AND UP TO 2-4 FEET OFFSHORE. MAIN CONCERN WILL
BE OFFSHORE MOVING STORMS TOWARD MID TO LATE AFTERNOON BOTH TODAY
AND AGAIN ON MONDAY.

TUES-THURS...PREVAILING W-SW WINDS 10-15 KT...OCCASIONALLY
15-20KTS NORTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL WHERE GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHTER IN
PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE
CENTRAL PENINSULA LATE TUES INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH WINDS BECOME NE
5-10KTS BEHIND THE FRONT NORTH OF THE CAPE WED AFTERNOON AND EAST-
SOUTHEAST WED NIGHT PERSISTING INTO THURS. WINDS OFFSHORE THE
TREASURE COAST KEEP S-SW COMPONENT WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW IN
BETWEEN WHERE THE FRONT STALLS.

SEAS 1-2 FT NEARSHORE AND UP TO 4 FEET WELL OFFSHORE TUE...BECOMING
1 FT OR LESS NEAR SHORE THU AND UP TO 2 FT OFFSHORE. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OFFSHORE MOST AFTERNOONS/EVENINGS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  77  94  77  93 /  10  20  20  50
MCO  75  96  76  94 /  10  20  10  50
MLB  76  94  76  93 /  20  20  10  40
VRB  75  93  75  93 /  20  20  10  30
LEE  77  96  78  95 /  10  20  20  50
SFB  78  96  78  96 /  10  20  20  50
ORL  77  96  79  95 /  10  20  10  50
FPR  75  93  75  92 /  20  30  10  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

FORECAST/AVIATION...MOSES
IMPACT WEATHER/RADAR....LASCODY







000
FXUS62 KMLB 271947
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
347 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...COMBINED WEST COAST SEA BREEZE/OUTLFOW
BOUNDARY HAS VERY QUICKLY SCOURED OUT MOST LOCATIONS NORTH OF
OSCEOLA AND SOUTH BREVARD WITH THE ASSOCIATED LINE OF STORMS NOW
PUSHING OFF THE COAST. ENOUGH DAYLIGHT AND HEATING REMAINS THAT AN
ADDITIONAL STORM OR TWO ACROSS THESE LOCATIONS...BUT WITH
INCREASING SUPPRESSION FROM THE RIDGE AND DRYING ALOFT EXPECT A
PARTLY CLOUDY AND DRY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR MOST HERE.

FURTHER SOUTH...THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE HAS DEVELOPED FROM THE
CAPE SOUTHWARDS AND EVEN PUSHED WEST OF THE COASTAL CITIES ALONG
THE TREASURE COAST (IT REMAINS ON THE BARRIER ISLAND IN BREVARD).
A WEAK CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY IN COMBINATION WITH THE LAKE
OKEECHOBEE BREEZE HAS SPARKED A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE
SAINT LUCIE COAST SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON...BUT EXPECT MORE ACTIVITY
TO ARRIVE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE DIFFUSE WEST COAST SEA
BREEZE COLLIDES WITH THE EAST COAST. BREVARD AND OSCEOLA COUNTIES
WILL SEE A LITTLE LESS ACTIVITY...MAINLY ALONG A SOUTHWARD MOVING
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE EARLIER ACTIVITY FURTHER NORTH...THOUGH
THE BREVARD COAST MAY SEE AN UPSWING IF THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
CAN SURVIVE A MID AFTERNOON COLLISION.

MOST ACTIVITY WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST BY SUNSET WITH SKIES
BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY...LOOKS TO BE THE DRIEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS WE REMAIN
MOSTLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN EASTERN EXTENSION OF THE LARGE
RIDGE OVER THE S CENTRAL US. EASTERN US TROUGH WILL DEEPEN DURING
THE DAY ERODING THE RIDGE...WITH A SURFACE FRONT WORKING INTO
NORTH FLORIDA BY THE EVENING.

ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA HOWEVER...ALTHOUGH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES REMAIN NEAR 1.8 INCHES UNDER WHAT IS USUALLY FAVORABLE
WESTERLY FLOW...MEAN LOW- MID LEVEL RH FALLS TO 45-50 PERCENT AND
MID LEVEL TEMPS ARE A RATHER WARM -5C AT 500MB AND +10 TO +11C AT
700MB. HAVE MADE NO CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST WHICH IS IN
LINE WITH LATEST MOS POPS WITH ISOLATED DIURNAL COVERAGE /20 POP/
MOST AREAS...EXCEPT SCATTERED /30 POP/ FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE
VICINITY WHERE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS AND BIT HIGHER MOISTURE
SHOULD LOCALLY ENHANCE ACTIVITY. MAX TEMPS MID 90S INLAND AND
LOW/MID 90S COAST AS W/SW FLOW HOLDS OFF SEA BREEZE EXCEPT FOR FAR
SE COAST WHERE LATE DAY WIND SHIFT POSSIBLE.

FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TUE-WED...UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE AND SHARPENS AMPLITUDE AS
ANOMALOUS CUT-OFF DROPS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. THIS PATTERN WILL
FORCE A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED BAND OF DEEP
MOISTURE INTO NORTHERN PENINSULA EARLY TUE...NORTHERN CWA BY LATE
IN THE DAY...AND SAGGING TO SOUTHERN CWA WED. HIGHEST SHOWER/STORM
COVERAGE EXPECTED TUE...THEN GRADIENT BECOMES EVIDENT WED WITH
HIGHEST POPS SOUTH AND LESSER COVERAGE NORTH. TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.

THU-SAT...BOUNDARY MAY REACH AS FAR AS LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION
THU/FRI. VERY LIGHT SURFACE WINDS IN WAKE OF BOUNDARY WITH
OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUING ALOFT DUE TO PERSISTENCE OF MID/UPPER
TROUGH SHOULD PROMOTE NUMEROUS BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS WITH NEAR
CLIMO POPS. TEMPS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...
QUICK MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/WEST COAST SEA BREEZE HAS ALREADY
PUSHED MOST SHRA/TSRA OFF THE COAST NORTH OF KMLB THOUGH VERY
ISOLD ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP BACK BEHIND IT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON. MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ALONG COAST FORM KMLB SOUTHWARDS
WITH COLLISIONS OF NUMEROUS BOUNDARIES BRINGING SCT TSRA THROUGH
23Z. MOST SHRA/TSRA MOVING OFFSHORE BY 00Z WITH PREVAILING VFR
OVERNIGHT. LOWER COVERAGE ON MONDAY WITH ACTIVITY ONCE AGAIN
FAVORING TREASURE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...

TONIGHT-MONDAY...WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW PICKS UP TO 10-15KTS LATE
THIS EVENING INTO MONDAY AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WORKING THROUGH THE EASTERN US AND DEEP SOUTH. COULD SEE
A SOLID 15KTS OR EVEN 15-20KTS OFFSHORE THE VOLUSIA COUNTY COAST
BUT PREVAILING LOOKS TO REMAIN IN THE 10-15KTS RANGE. WINDS WILL
BE TO STRONG FOR ANY SEA BREEZE COMPONENT MONDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS
1-3 FEET NEARSHORE AND UP TO 2-4 FEET OFFSHORE. MAIN CONCERN WILL
BE OFFSHORE MOVING STORMS TOWARD MID TO LATE AFTERNOON BOTH TODAY
AND AGAIN ON MONDAY.

TUES-THURS...PREVAILING W-SW WINDS 10-15 KT...OCCASIONALLY
15-20KTS NORTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL WHERE GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHTER IN
PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE
CENTRAL PENINSULA LATE TUES INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH WINDS BECOME NE
5-10KTS BEHIND THE FRONT NORTH OF THE CAPE WED AFTERNOON AND EAST-
SOUTHEAST WED NIGHT PERSISTING INTO THURS. WINDS OFFSHORE THE
TREASURE COAST KEEP S-SW COMPONENT WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW IN
BETWEEN WHERE THE FRONT STALLS.

SEAS 1-2 FT NEARSHORE AND UP TO 4 FEET WELL OFFSHORE TUE...BECOMING
1 FT OR LESS NEAR SHORE THU AND UP TO 2 FT OFFSHORE. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OFFSHORE MOST AFTERNOONS/EVENINGS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  77  94  77  93 /  10  20  20  50
MCO  75  96  76  94 /  10  20  10  50
MLB  76  94  76  93 /  20  20  10  40
VRB  75  93  75  93 /  20  20  10  30
LEE  77  96  78  95 /  10  20  20  50
SFB  78  96  78  96 /  10  20  20  50
ORL  77  96  79  95 /  10  20  10  50
FPR  75  93  75  92 /  20  30  10  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

FORECAST/AVIATION...MOSES
IMPACT WEATHER/RADAR....LASCODY








000
FXUS62 KMLB 271315
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
915 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...

WATCHING THE MORE SUBTLE CHANGES IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN TODAY AS
THE TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE PENINSULA THE PAST FEW DAYS
BECOMES MORE DIFFUSE. AT THE SAME TIME...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA/BAHAMAS LIFTS FURTHER NORTH AND BECOMES AN EASTERN
EXTENSION OF THE S CENTRAL US. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...TROUGH ALONG
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST WILL KEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS NEAR THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA MAINTAINING A DEEP
WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA.

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWS A PERSISTENT HIGHER MOISTURE BAND ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PENINSULA BEING SQUEEZED BETWEEN DRIER AIR FROM THE
NORTH AND SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR MOVING INTO S FLORIDA. MODELS STILL
HOLD ONTO MID LEVEL DRYING WITH THE MOISTURE BAND ERODING WITH THE
TROUGH.

THIS DRYING IN COMBINATION WITH MID LEVEL TEMPS WARMING A DEGREE OR
SO WILL LEAD TO LOWER COVERAGE OF POPS TODAY. WHILE THERE ARE A FEW
WEST COAST SHOWERS/STORMS THIS MORNING...COVERAGE ALONG THE NATURE
COAST ISN`T AS ROBUST AS THE PAST FEW DAYS. HOWEVER THE PREVAILING
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL STILL LEAD TO A MORE ACTIVE WEST COAST THAN EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE THAT PUSHES INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA AROUND MIDDAY.
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO DELAY SEA BREEZE FORMATION AT
THE COAST AND LIKELY PREVENTING IT FROM DEVELOPING ALTOGETHER NORTH
OF THE CAPE SO ACTIVITY WILL BE A LITTLE SLOWER TO GET GOING RIGHT
ALONG THE BREVARD AND TREASURE COASTS. BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN AND
STRONGER STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ACROSS OKEECHOBEE COUNTY AND THE
TREASURE COAST WHERE GREATER MOISTURE WILL EXIST AND LATE AFTERNOON
SEA AND LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY COLLISIONS ARE MORE LIKELY. MOST
ACTIVITY PUSHING OFF THE COAST AROUND SUNSET.

TEMPS...EVEN AT THE COAST...WILL REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDS THROUGH LATE MORNING. OVERALL STORM COVERAGE EXPECTED TO
BE LOWER THAN PREVIOUS FEW DAYS DO TO DRIER AIR.

ISOLD SHRA/TSRA MOVING INTO LAKE/WEST ORLANDO METRO AFTER 15Z WITH
WEST COAST SEA BREEZE. ADDITIONAL ISOLD TSRA KVRB-KSUA DUE TO LAKE
OKEECHOBEE BREEZE. EAST COAST SEA BREEZE SLOWER TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AROUND 19-20Z PRIMARILY FROM KMLB SOUTHWARDS AND REMAINING
NEAR COAST. SCT TSRA THROUGH AFTERNOON WITH BEST COVERAGE SOUTH OF A
MELBOURNE TO LAKE KISSIMMEE LINE.

&&

.MARINE...
SFC RIDGE AXIS REMAINING SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL PRODUCE A W/SW FLOW
OVER THE WATERS...BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY NEAR THE COAST SOUTH OF
SEBASTIAN INLET WHERE THE SEA BREEZE CAN FORM LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 10 KNOTS TODAY BUT ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE UP TO AROUND 15 KNOTS OFFSHORE OF VOLUSIA
COUNTY LATE TONIGHT. SEAS 1-2 FEET NEARSHORE AND UP TO 2-3 FEET
OFFSHORE. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE OFFSHORE MOVING STORMS TOWARD MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

FORECAST/AVIATION...MOSES
IMPACT WEATHER/RADAR....LASCODY










000
FXUS62 KMLB 271315
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
915 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...

WATCHING THE MORE SUBTLE CHANGES IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN TODAY AS
THE TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE PENINSULA THE PAST FEW DAYS
BECOMES MORE DIFFUSE. AT THE SAME TIME...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA/BAHAMAS LIFTS FURTHER NORTH AND BECOMES AN EASTERN
EXTENSION OF THE S CENTRAL US. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...TROUGH ALONG
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST WILL KEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS NEAR THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA MAINTAINING A DEEP
WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA.

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWS A PERSISTENT HIGHER MOISTURE BAND ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PENINSULA BEING SQUEEZED BETWEEN DRIER AIR FROM THE
NORTH AND SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR MOVING INTO S FLORIDA. MODELS STILL
HOLD ONTO MID LEVEL DRYING WITH THE MOISTURE BAND ERODING WITH THE
TROUGH.

THIS DRYING IN COMBINATION WITH MID LEVEL TEMPS WARMING A DEGREE OR
SO WILL LEAD TO LOWER COVERAGE OF POPS TODAY. WHILE THERE ARE A FEW
WEST COAST SHOWERS/STORMS THIS MORNING...COVERAGE ALONG THE NATURE
COAST ISN`T AS ROBUST AS THE PAST FEW DAYS. HOWEVER THE PREVAILING
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL STILL LEAD TO A MORE ACTIVE WEST COAST THAN EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE THAT PUSHES INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA AROUND MIDDAY.
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO DELAY SEA BREEZE FORMATION AT
THE COAST AND LIKELY PREVENTING IT FROM DEVELOPING ALTOGETHER NORTH
OF THE CAPE SO ACTIVITY WILL BE A LITTLE SLOWER TO GET GOING RIGHT
ALONG THE BREVARD AND TREASURE COASTS. BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN AND
STRONGER STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ACROSS OKEECHOBEE COUNTY AND THE
TREASURE COAST WHERE GREATER MOISTURE WILL EXIST AND LATE AFTERNOON
SEA AND LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY COLLISIONS ARE MORE LIKELY. MOST
ACTIVITY PUSHING OFF THE COAST AROUND SUNSET.

TEMPS...EVEN AT THE COAST...WILL REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDS THROUGH LATE MORNING. OVERALL STORM COVERAGE EXPECTED TO
BE LOWER THAN PREVIOUS FEW DAYS DO TO DRIER AIR.

ISOLD SHRA/TSRA MOVING INTO LAKE/WEST ORLANDO METRO AFTER 15Z WITH
WEST COAST SEA BREEZE. ADDITIONAL ISOLD TSRA KVRB-KSUA DUE TO LAKE
OKEECHOBEE BREEZE. EAST COAST SEA BREEZE SLOWER TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AROUND 19-20Z PRIMARILY FROM KMLB SOUTHWARDS AND REMAINING
NEAR COAST. SCT TSRA THROUGH AFTERNOON WITH BEST COVERAGE SOUTH OF A
MELBOURNE TO LAKE KISSIMMEE LINE.

&&

.MARINE...
SFC RIDGE AXIS REMAINING SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL PRODUCE A W/SW FLOW
OVER THE WATERS...BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY NEAR THE COAST SOUTH OF
SEBASTIAN INLET WHERE THE SEA BREEZE CAN FORM LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 10 KNOTS TODAY BUT ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE UP TO AROUND 15 KNOTS OFFSHORE OF VOLUSIA
COUNTY LATE TONIGHT. SEAS 1-2 FEET NEARSHORE AND UP TO 2-3 FEET
OFFSHORE. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE OFFSHORE MOVING STORMS TOWARD MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

FORECAST/AVIATION...MOSES
IMPACT WEATHER/RADAR....LASCODY











000
FXUS62 KMLB 270829
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
429 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY/TONIGHT...TROUGH ALOFT BECOMES MORE DIFFUSE AND ALLOWS MID
LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA.
HOWEVER AT THE SURFACE...TROUGH ALONG THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST WILL
KEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS NEAR THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A DEEP WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE
AREA TODAY. GFS CONTINUES TO USHER IN SOME DRIER AIR IN THIS
WESTERLY FLOW AND SOME SLIGHT WARMING ALOFT IS ALSO INDICATED AT
500MB. THESE CONDITIONS OVERALL SHOULD PRODUCE LOWER COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. STILL FEEL GFS MOS POPS
TOO LOW FOR THIS SCENARIO HOWEVER...SO CONTINUED TO GO ABOVE
GUIDANCE WITH RAIN CHANCES RANGING 30-40 PERCENT. BEST CHANCE FOR
RAIN AND STRONGER STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ACROSS OKEECHOBEE COUNTY
AND THE TREASURE COAST WHERE GREATER MOISTURE WILL EXIST AND LATE
DAY SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY COLLISIONS ARE MORE LIKELY.

OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO DELAY SEA BREEZE FORMATION AT
THE COAST AND LIKELY PREVENTING IT FROM DEVELOPING ALTOGETHER NORTH
OF THE CAPE. THIS COMBINED WITH LOWER STORM COVERAGE WILL ALLOW
TEMPS...EVEN AT THE COAST...TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S. AS
CONVECTION WINDS DOWN INTO THE EVENING SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY
CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT AND LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO RANGE
FROM THE LOW-MID 70S.

MON...MID LEVEL RIDGE DROPS BACK TOWARD FLORIDA STRAITS AS BROAD
UPPER TROUGH EVOLVES THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE NATION. ALTHOUGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST NEAR 1.8 INCHES...MEAN LOW-
MID LEVEL RH FALLS TO 45-50 PERCENT. MOS POPS LOWER TO 20-30
PERCENT. WILL FORECAST ISOLATED DIURNAL COVERAGE /20 POP/ MOST
AREAS...EXCEPT SCATTERED /30 POP/ FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE VICINITY
WHERE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS AND BIT HIGHER MOISTURE SHOULD LOCALLY
ENHANCE ACTIVITY. MAX TEMPS MID 90S INLAND AND LOW/MID 90S COAST
AS W/SW FLOW HOLDS OFF SEA BREEZE EXCEPT FOR FAR SE COAST WHERE
LATE DAY WIND SHIFT POSSIBLE.

TUE-WED...UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE AND SHARPENS AMPLITUDE AS
ANOMALOUS CUT-OFF DROPS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. THIS PATTERN WILL
FORCE A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED BAND OF DEEP
MOISTURE INTO NORTHERN PENINSULA EARLY TUE...NORTHERN CWA BY LATE
IN THE DAY...AND SAGGING TO SOUTHERN CWA WED. HIGHEST
SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE EXPECTED TUE...THEN GRADIENT BECOMES EVIDENT
WED WITH HIGHEST POPS SOUTH AND LESSER COVERAGE NORTH. TEMPS
A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THU-SAT...BOUNDARY MAY REACH AS FAR AS LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION
THU/FRI. VERY LIGHT SURFACE WINDS IN WAKE OF BOUNDARY WITH
OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUING ALOFT DUE TO PERSISTENCE OF MID/UPPER
TROUGH SHOULD PROMOTE NUMEROUS BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS WITH NEAR
CLIMO POPS. TEMPS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH LATE MORNING. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS STILL EXPECTED TO FORM THIS AFTERNOON AND PUSH
EASTWARD...BUT DRIER AIR AND GREATER SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP COVERAGE
LOWER THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS. BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL EXIST
SOUTH OF KMLB WHERE GREATER MOISTURE WILL EXIST AND WHERE BOUNDARY
COLLISIONS ARE MORE LIKELY.


&&

.MARINE...

TODAY/TONIGHT...SFC RIDGE AXIS REMAINING SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL
PRODUCE A W/SW FLOW OVER THE WATERS...BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY NEAR
THE COAST WHERE THE SEA BREEZE CAN FORM LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. WIND
SPEEDS WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 10 KNOTS TODAY BUT ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE UP TO AROUND 15 KNOTS OFFSHORE OF VOLUSIA COUNTY LATE
TONIGHT. SEAS 1-2 FEET NEARSHORE AND UP TO 2-3 FEET OFFSHORE. MAIN
CONCERN WILL BE OFFSHORE MOVING STORMS TOWARD MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON.

MON-THU...SW/W WINDS 10-15 KT...BECOME S/SW 5-10 KT BEHIND
BOUNDARY BY WED...THE GRADUALLY BACKS LIGHT ONSHORE COMPONENT THU.
SEAS 1-2 FT NEARSHORE AND UP TO 4 FEET WELL OFFSHORE MON-TUE...
BECOMING 1 FT OR LESS NEAR SHORE THU AND UP TO 2 FT OFFSHORE.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OFFSHORE MOST
AFTERNOONS/EVENINGS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  94  76  94  78 /  30  20  20  20
MCO  94  75  95  76 /  30  20  20  20
MLB  94  75  93  77 /  30  20  20  20
VRB  93  75  93  76 /  40  20  20  20
LEE  93  77  96  76 /  30  20  20  20
SFB  95  77  96  76 /  30  20  20  20
ORL  94  77  96  76 /  30  20  20  20
FPR  93  75  92  75 /  40  20  20  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...WEITLICH
LONG TERM....SPRATT







000
FXUS62 KMLB 270829
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
429 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY/TONIGHT...TROUGH ALOFT BECOMES MORE DIFFUSE AND ALLOWS MID
LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA.
HOWEVER AT THE SURFACE...TROUGH ALONG THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST WILL
KEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS NEAR THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A DEEP WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE
AREA TODAY. GFS CONTINUES TO USHER IN SOME DRIER AIR IN THIS
WESTERLY FLOW AND SOME SLIGHT WARMING ALOFT IS ALSO INDICATED AT
500MB. THESE CONDITIONS OVERALL SHOULD PRODUCE LOWER COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. STILL FEEL GFS MOS POPS
TOO LOW FOR THIS SCENARIO HOWEVER...SO CONTINUED TO GO ABOVE
GUIDANCE WITH RAIN CHANCES RANGING 30-40 PERCENT. BEST CHANCE FOR
RAIN AND STRONGER STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ACROSS OKEECHOBEE COUNTY
AND THE TREASURE COAST WHERE GREATER MOISTURE WILL EXIST AND LATE
DAY SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY COLLISIONS ARE MORE LIKELY.

OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO DELAY SEA BREEZE FORMATION AT
THE COAST AND LIKELY PREVENTING IT FROM DEVELOPING ALTOGETHER NORTH
OF THE CAPE. THIS COMBINED WITH LOWER STORM COVERAGE WILL ALLOW
TEMPS...EVEN AT THE COAST...TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S. AS
CONVECTION WINDS DOWN INTO THE EVENING SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY
CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT AND LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO RANGE
FROM THE LOW-MID 70S.

MON...MID LEVEL RIDGE DROPS BACK TOWARD FLORIDA STRAITS AS BROAD
UPPER TROUGH EVOLVES THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE NATION. ALTHOUGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST NEAR 1.8 INCHES...MEAN LOW-
MID LEVEL RH FALLS TO 45-50 PERCENT. MOS POPS LOWER TO 20-30
PERCENT. WILL FORECAST ISOLATED DIURNAL COVERAGE /20 POP/ MOST
AREAS...EXCEPT SCATTERED /30 POP/ FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE VICINITY
WHERE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS AND BIT HIGHER MOISTURE SHOULD LOCALLY
ENHANCE ACTIVITY. MAX TEMPS MID 90S INLAND AND LOW/MID 90S COAST
AS W/SW FLOW HOLDS OFF SEA BREEZE EXCEPT FOR FAR SE COAST WHERE
LATE DAY WIND SHIFT POSSIBLE.

TUE-WED...UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE AND SHARPENS AMPLITUDE AS
ANOMALOUS CUT-OFF DROPS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. THIS PATTERN WILL
FORCE A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED BAND OF DEEP
MOISTURE INTO NORTHERN PENINSULA EARLY TUE...NORTHERN CWA BY LATE
IN THE DAY...AND SAGGING TO SOUTHERN CWA WED. HIGHEST
SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE EXPECTED TUE...THEN GRADIENT BECOMES EVIDENT
WED WITH HIGHEST POPS SOUTH AND LESSER COVERAGE NORTH. TEMPS
A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THU-SAT...BOUNDARY MAY REACH AS FAR AS LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION
THU/FRI. VERY LIGHT SURFACE WINDS IN WAKE OF BOUNDARY WITH
OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUING ALOFT DUE TO PERSISTENCE OF MID/UPPER
TROUGH SHOULD PROMOTE NUMEROUS BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS WITH NEAR
CLIMO POPS. TEMPS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH LATE MORNING. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS STILL EXPECTED TO FORM THIS AFTERNOON AND PUSH
EASTWARD...BUT DRIER AIR AND GREATER SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP COVERAGE
LOWER THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS. BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL EXIST
SOUTH OF KMLB WHERE GREATER MOISTURE WILL EXIST AND WHERE BOUNDARY
COLLISIONS ARE MORE LIKELY.


&&

.MARINE...

TODAY/TONIGHT...SFC RIDGE AXIS REMAINING SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL
PRODUCE A W/SW FLOW OVER THE WATERS...BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY NEAR
THE COAST WHERE THE SEA BREEZE CAN FORM LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. WIND
SPEEDS WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 10 KNOTS TODAY BUT ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE UP TO AROUND 15 KNOTS OFFSHORE OF VOLUSIA COUNTY LATE
TONIGHT. SEAS 1-2 FEET NEARSHORE AND UP TO 2-3 FEET OFFSHORE. MAIN
CONCERN WILL BE OFFSHORE MOVING STORMS TOWARD MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON.

MON-THU...SW/W WINDS 10-15 KT...BECOME S/SW 5-10 KT BEHIND
BOUNDARY BY WED...THE GRADUALLY BACKS LIGHT ONSHORE COMPONENT THU.
SEAS 1-2 FT NEARSHORE AND UP TO 4 FEET WELL OFFSHORE MON-TUE...
BECOMING 1 FT OR LESS NEAR SHORE THU AND UP TO 2 FT OFFSHORE.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OFFSHORE MOST
AFTERNOONS/EVENINGS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  94  76  94  78 /  30  20  20  20
MCO  94  75  95  76 /  30  20  20  20
MLB  94  75  93  77 /  30  20  20  20
VRB  93  75  93  76 /  40  20  20  20
LEE  93  77  96  76 /  30  20  20  20
SFB  95  77  96  76 /  30  20  20  20
ORL  94  77  96  76 /  30  20  20  20
FPR  93  75  92  75 /  40  20  20  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...WEITLICH
LONG TERM....SPRATT








000
FXUS62 KMLB 270117
AFDMLB

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
917 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
PCPN IN THE PROCESS OF DECAY OVER LAND AND WL RELOCATE OFFSHORE IN
THE FORM OF ISOLD SHOWERS. FORECAST WL BE ADJUSTED TO REMOVE MENTION
OF RAIN THE REST OF THE NIGHT EXCEPT FOR SOME OF THE WATERS. LIGHT
SOUTH TO SW FLOW WL OCCUR OVERNIGHT WITH REDUCING CLOUD COVER CAN BE
EXPECTED.

SUN...LITTLE CHANGE IN POPS WITH LESS COVERAGE THAN RECENT DAYS AND
BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS...NEAR 30 PERCENT SUN AND DRIEST DAY THIS
WEEK LOOKS TO BE MON WITH POPS NEAR 20 PERCENT...EXCEPT 30 PERCENT
IN VICINITY OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. SEA/LAKE BREEZES WILL DRIVE DIURNAL
CONVECTION WITH MID AFTERNOON ACTIVITY TO SPREADING TO THE COAST
TOWARD LATE AFTERNOONS. TEMPS REMAINING SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...MAXES IN MID 90S INLAND AND LOWER/MID 90S COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH SOME HIGHER CLOUDS. ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHRA/TS. LESSER CVG SUNDAY PRODUCING SOME MVFR CONDS AND OCNL IFR AT
AFFECTED SITES DURING MID TO LATE AFTN SUN.
&&

.MARINE...
LITTLE CHANGE IN PATTERN SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A DOMINANT
SW FLOW AROUND 10KTS OR LESS...BECOMING S-SE IN THE AFTERNOONS ALONG
THE COAST WITH THE SEA BREEZE FORMATION. SEAS 2 FEET OR LESS.
MAIN THREAT REMAINS FOR OFFSHORE MOVING STORMS ON SUNDAY...THOUGH
COVERAGE WILL BE LOWER.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

JP/MB







000
FXUS62 KMLB 270117
AFDMLB

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
917 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
PCPN IN THE PROCESS OF DECAY OVER LAND AND WL RELOCATE OFFSHORE IN
THE FORM OF ISOLD SHOWERS. FORECAST WL BE ADJUSTED TO REMOVE MENTION
OF RAIN THE REST OF THE NIGHT EXCEPT FOR SOME OF THE WATERS. LIGHT
SOUTH TO SW FLOW WL OCCUR OVERNIGHT WITH REDUCING CLOUD COVER CAN BE
EXPECTED.

SUN...LITTLE CHANGE IN POPS WITH LESS COVERAGE THAN RECENT DAYS AND
BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS...NEAR 30 PERCENT SUN AND DRIEST DAY THIS
WEEK LOOKS TO BE MON WITH POPS NEAR 20 PERCENT...EXCEPT 30 PERCENT
IN VICINITY OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. SEA/LAKE BREEZES WILL DRIVE DIURNAL
CONVECTION WITH MID AFTERNOON ACTIVITY TO SPREADING TO THE COAST
TOWARD LATE AFTERNOONS. TEMPS REMAINING SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...MAXES IN MID 90S INLAND AND LOWER/MID 90S COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH SOME HIGHER CLOUDS. ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHRA/TS. LESSER CVG SUNDAY PRODUCING SOME MVFR CONDS AND OCNL IFR AT
AFFECTED SITES DURING MID TO LATE AFTN SUN.
&&

.MARINE...
LITTLE CHANGE IN PATTERN SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A DOMINANT
SW FLOW AROUND 10KTS OR LESS...BECOMING S-SE IN THE AFTERNOONS ALONG
THE COAST WITH THE SEA BREEZE FORMATION. SEAS 2 FEET OR LESS.
MAIN THREAT REMAINS FOR OFFSHORE MOVING STORMS ON SUNDAY...THOUGH
COVERAGE WILL BE LOWER.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

JP/MB






000
FXUS62 KMLB 261859
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
259 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...WEST COAST SEA BREEZE CONTINUES TO BE
THE MORE DOMINANT THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH NOT AS ACTIVE AS
YESTERDAY. HOWEVER IT HAS QUICKLY PUSHED ACROSS THE PENINSULA AND
IS NOW MOVING THROUGH THE I-4 CORRIDOR WITH WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS. OFFSHORE FLOW IS A LITTLE STRONGER THAN BEFORE
WHICH HAS KEPT THE SEA BREEZE ALONG US1 IN BREVARD AND TO I95/FL
TURNPIKE ALONG THE TREASURE COAST. DON`T EXPECT TOO MUCH MORE
INLAND MOVEMENT OF THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
THE COLLISION OCCURS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.
MAIN THREATS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FOR EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING WITHIN
ANY STORMS ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL.

GIVEN THE SPEED OF ACTIVITY MOST SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED TO
MOVE OFFSHORE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH A FEW STORMS
POSSIBLE BEHIND THE MAIN PUSH OVER THE ORLANDO METRO WITH ADDITIONAL
LATE AFTERNOON HEATING. SKIES CLEARING AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH LOWS IN
THE LOW-MID 70S.

SUN-MON...MID LEVEL EAST COAST TROUGH OF RECENT DAYS BECOMES MORE
DIFFUSE ACROSS THE PENINSULA AS RIDGE AXIS LIFTS A BIT INTO THE
SOUTHERN PENINSULA AND ELONGATES WESTWARD INTO THE GULF. MODELS
ARE CONSISTENT ON SHOWING FAIRLY GOOD DRYING IN THE LOW-MID LEVEL
UNDERNEATH SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE. PREVAILING FLOW STILL
OFFSHORE...POSSIBLY STRONG ENOUGH TO HOLD OFF EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE UNTIL MID/LATE AFTERNOON AND ONLY ALONG BREVARD/TREASURE
COAST.

LITTLE CHANGE IN POPS WITH LESS COVERAGE THAN RECENT DAYS AND
BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS...NEAR 30 PERCENT SUN AND DRIEST DAY
THIS WEEK LOOKS TO BE MON WITH POPS NEAR 20 PERCENT...EXCEPT 30
PERCENT IN VICINITY OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. SEA/LAKE BREEZES WILL
DRIVE DIURNAL CONVECTION WITH MID AFTERNOON ACTIVITY TO SPREADING
TO THE COAST TOWARD LATE AFTERNOONS. TEMPS REMAINING SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...MAXS IN MID 90S INLAND AND LOWER/MID 90S
COAST.

FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TUE-FRI...EAST COAST TROUGH DEVELOPS AND DEEPENS IN
AMPLITUDE... DIGGING TO NEAR 25 DEGREE LATITUDE. AXIS FORECAST TO
REMAIN NEAR/WEST OF STATE THROUGH MID WEEK...THEN TRANSLATE TO
JUST OFFSHORE BY LATE IN THE WEEK. SURFACE FRONT/TROUGH SHOULD
REACH NORTHERN PENINSULA TUE WITH MOISTURE RETURN IN ADVANCE
LEADING TO AN UPWARD TREND OF POPS. TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED DEEP
MOISTURE RIBBON EXPECTED TO REACH CWA WED...THEN DROP FARTHER
SOUTH THU/FRI AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH AT THIS
POINT TO BUY FAR SOUTHWARD PUSH AND ADVECTION OF VERY DRY AIRMASS
INTO THE REGION FOR LATE IN THE WEEK...BUT SET UP OF SUCH AN
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG TROUGH WOULD SUPPORT ONE-TWO DAYS OF VERY LOW
COVERAGE. FOR NOW...WILL UNDERCUT CLIMO POPS A BIT...AND MONITOR
MODEL TRENDS FOR ANOTHER CYCLE OR TWO BEFORE COMMITTING TO SUCH
DRYING. TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO MID WEEK...THEN CLOSE TO
CLIMO LATE WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...
WDLY SCAT TSRA MOVING EAST ALONG WEST COAST SEA BREEZE NOW
PUSHING THROUGH I-4 CORRIDOR. COLLISION WITH EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
FROM KTIX SOUTH BETWEEN 20Z-23Z WITH ACTIVITY LINGERING ALONG
COASTAL SITES THROUGH 27/01Z. COULD SEE ISOLD ACTIVITY DEVELOPING
BEHIND MAIN WEST COAST SEA BREEZE THROUGH SUNSET TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE PREVAILING VFR AFTER 27/01Z. COVERAGE OF AFTN SHRA/TSRA
EXPECTED TO BE LOWER ON SUN WITH PREVAILING WEST-SW FLOW
CONTINUING TO BRING ACTIVITY ACROSS THE PENINSULA.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT-SUNDAY...SFC RIDGE AXIS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND WEAK
TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN US WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A
DOMINANT W/SW FLOW AROUND 10KTS...BECOMING S-SE IN THE AFTERNOONS
ALONG THE COAST WITH THE SEA BREEZE FORMATION. SEAS 2-3 FEET WITH
UP TO 4 FEET WELL OFFSHORE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

MAIN THREAT REMAINS FOR OFFSHORE MOVING STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY...THOUGH COVERAGE WILL BE LOWER.

MON-WED...W-SW WINDS 10-15 KT BACKING TO S/SE COMPONENT NEAR THE
COAST MON AFTERNOON AS SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. SLIGHTLY STRONGER
OFFSHORE FLOW TUE/WED MAY BE ENOUGH TO LIMIT SEA BREEZE FORMATION
WITH WINDS REMAINING PREVAILING W-SW. SEAS GENERALLY 1-2 FT
NEARSHORE AND 3-4 FT OFFSHORE.

LIMITED OFFSHORE MOVING STORMS ON MONDAY...WITH COVERAGE
INCREASING AHEAD OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY TUES/WED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  75  94  77  94 /  30  30  20  20
MCO  75  96  76  95 /  20  30  20  20
MLB  76  94  75  94 /  40  30  20  20
VRB  75  92  75  93 /  30  30  20  20
LEE  76  97  77  96 /  20  30  20  20
SFB  77  97  77  96 /  20  30  20  20
ORL  77  96  78  95 /  20  30  20  20
FPR  74  91  74  93 /  30  30  20  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

FORECAST/AVIATION...MOSES
IMPACT WEATHER/RADAR....ULRICH








000
FXUS62 KMLB 261859
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
259 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...WEST COAST SEA BREEZE CONTINUES TO BE
THE MORE DOMINANT THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH NOT AS ACTIVE AS
YESTERDAY. HOWEVER IT HAS QUICKLY PUSHED ACROSS THE PENINSULA AND
IS NOW MOVING THROUGH THE I-4 CORRIDOR WITH WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS. OFFSHORE FLOW IS A LITTLE STRONGER THAN BEFORE
WHICH HAS KEPT THE SEA BREEZE ALONG US1 IN BREVARD AND TO I95/FL
TURNPIKE ALONG THE TREASURE COAST. DON`T EXPECT TOO MUCH MORE
INLAND MOVEMENT OF THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
THE COLLISION OCCURS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.
MAIN THREATS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FOR EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING WITHIN
ANY STORMS ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL.

GIVEN THE SPEED OF ACTIVITY MOST SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED TO
MOVE OFFSHORE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH A FEW STORMS
POSSIBLE BEHIND THE MAIN PUSH OVER THE ORLANDO METRO WITH ADDITIONAL
LATE AFTERNOON HEATING. SKIES CLEARING AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH LOWS IN
THE LOW-MID 70S.

SUN-MON...MID LEVEL EAST COAST TROUGH OF RECENT DAYS BECOMES MORE
DIFFUSE ACROSS THE PENINSULA AS RIDGE AXIS LIFTS A BIT INTO THE
SOUTHERN PENINSULA AND ELONGATES WESTWARD INTO THE GULF. MODELS
ARE CONSISTENT ON SHOWING FAIRLY GOOD DRYING IN THE LOW-MID LEVEL
UNDERNEATH SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE. PREVAILING FLOW STILL
OFFSHORE...POSSIBLY STRONG ENOUGH TO HOLD OFF EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE UNTIL MID/LATE AFTERNOON AND ONLY ALONG BREVARD/TREASURE
COAST.

LITTLE CHANGE IN POPS WITH LESS COVERAGE THAN RECENT DAYS AND
BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS...NEAR 30 PERCENT SUN AND DRIEST DAY
THIS WEEK LOOKS TO BE MON WITH POPS NEAR 20 PERCENT...EXCEPT 30
PERCENT IN VICINITY OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. SEA/LAKE BREEZES WILL
DRIVE DIURNAL CONVECTION WITH MID AFTERNOON ACTIVITY TO SPREADING
TO THE COAST TOWARD LATE AFTERNOONS. TEMPS REMAINING SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...MAXS IN MID 90S INLAND AND LOWER/MID 90S
COAST.

FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TUE-FRI...EAST COAST TROUGH DEVELOPS AND DEEPENS IN
AMPLITUDE... DIGGING TO NEAR 25 DEGREE LATITUDE. AXIS FORECAST TO
REMAIN NEAR/WEST OF STATE THROUGH MID WEEK...THEN TRANSLATE TO
JUST OFFSHORE BY LATE IN THE WEEK. SURFACE FRONT/TROUGH SHOULD
REACH NORTHERN PENINSULA TUE WITH MOISTURE RETURN IN ADVANCE
LEADING TO AN UPWARD TREND OF POPS. TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED DEEP
MOISTURE RIBBON EXPECTED TO REACH CWA WED...THEN DROP FARTHER
SOUTH THU/FRI AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH AT THIS
POINT TO BUY FAR SOUTHWARD PUSH AND ADVECTION OF VERY DRY AIRMASS
INTO THE REGION FOR LATE IN THE WEEK...BUT SET UP OF SUCH AN
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG TROUGH WOULD SUPPORT ONE-TWO DAYS OF VERY LOW
COVERAGE. FOR NOW...WILL UNDERCUT CLIMO POPS A BIT...AND MONITOR
MODEL TRENDS FOR ANOTHER CYCLE OR TWO BEFORE COMMITTING TO SUCH
DRYING. TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO MID WEEK...THEN CLOSE TO
CLIMO LATE WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...
WDLY SCAT TSRA MOVING EAST ALONG WEST COAST SEA BREEZE NOW
PUSHING THROUGH I-4 CORRIDOR. COLLISION WITH EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
FROM KTIX SOUTH BETWEEN 20Z-23Z WITH ACTIVITY LINGERING ALONG
COASTAL SITES THROUGH 27/01Z. COULD SEE ISOLD ACTIVITY DEVELOPING
BEHIND MAIN WEST COAST SEA BREEZE THROUGH SUNSET TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE PREVAILING VFR AFTER 27/01Z. COVERAGE OF AFTN SHRA/TSRA
EXPECTED TO BE LOWER ON SUN WITH PREVAILING WEST-SW FLOW
CONTINUING TO BRING ACTIVITY ACROSS THE PENINSULA.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT-SUNDAY...SFC RIDGE AXIS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND WEAK
TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN US WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A
DOMINANT W/SW FLOW AROUND 10KTS...BECOMING S-SE IN THE AFTERNOONS
ALONG THE COAST WITH THE SEA BREEZE FORMATION. SEAS 2-3 FEET WITH
UP TO 4 FEET WELL OFFSHORE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

MAIN THREAT REMAINS FOR OFFSHORE MOVING STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY...THOUGH COVERAGE WILL BE LOWER.

MON-WED...W-SW WINDS 10-15 KT BACKING TO S/SE COMPONENT NEAR THE
COAST MON AFTERNOON AS SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. SLIGHTLY STRONGER
OFFSHORE FLOW TUE/WED MAY BE ENOUGH TO LIMIT SEA BREEZE FORMATION
WITH WINDS REMAINING PREVAILING W-SW. SEAS GENERALLY 1-2 FT
NEARSHORE AND 3-4 FT OFFSHORE.

LIMITED OFFSHORE MOVING STORMS ON MONDAY...WITH COVERAGE
INCREASING AHEAD OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY TUES/WED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  75  94  77  94 /  30  30  20  20
MCO  75  96  76  95 /  20  30  20  20
MLB  76  94  75  94 /  40  30  20  20
VRB  75  92  75  93 /  30  30  20  20
LEE  76  97  77  96 /  20  30  20  20
SFB  77  97  77  96 /  20  30  20  20
ORL  77  96  78  95 /  20  30  20  20
FPR  74  91  74  93 /  30  30  20  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

FORECAST/AVIATION...MOSES
IMPACT WEATHER/RADAR....ULRICH







000
FXUS62 KMLB 261315
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
915 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS AND
THE SMALLER DAY TO DAY DETAILS CONTINUE TO DRIVE THE COVERAGE OF
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE MEAN MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
EAST COAST WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST TODAY...WHICH WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN
THE TROUGHING IN PLACE ACROSS N FLORIDA. HOWEVER THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY...BOTH IN THE LOW
AND MID LEVELS.

THE PENINSULA REMAINS UNDERNEATH AN ENHANCED RIBBON OF MOISTURE WITH
DRIER AIR TO THE SOUTH AND EAST BEING SUPPRESSED BY THE RIDGE AXIS
AND DRIER AIR TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE TROUGH. AS THE TROUGH WASHES
OUT ACROSS THE STATE...MODELS SHOW SOME MID LEVEL DRYING LATER
TODAY. HOWEVER THIS APPEARS TO COME TOO LATE TO HAVE A SUBSTANTIVE
IMPACT ON STORM COVERAGE.

LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW WILL REMAIN WEAK ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE TO FORM AROUND MIDDAY...THOUGH IT WILL LIKELY NOT
MAKE IT MUCH FURTHER INLAND THAN I-95 AND BE DELAYED NORTH OF THE
CAPE. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PLACE THE GREATEST COVERAGE AND THREAT
FOR STRONGER STORMS WITH THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE COLLISION WHICH
WILL OCCUR FROM VOLUSIA COUNTY SOUTHWARD THROUGH OKEECHOBEE COUNTY
AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE TREASURE COAST. HOWEVER SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG BOTH SEA BREEZES AND OTHER
LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

STORM MOTION WILL BE TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH BRINGING ANY
ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS WITH THE SEA BREEZE COLLISION BACK TOWARD THE
COAST AND OFFSHORE THROUGH EARLY EVENING. MAIN STORM THREATS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING...STRONG WIND GUSTS
UP TO 40 TO 50 MPH AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. HIGHS WILL REACH THE
LOW 90S MOST LOCATIONS WITH INTERIOR URBAN AREAS POTENTIALLY
REACHING THE MID 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...
SIMILAR COVERAGE PATTERN TO THE PAST FEW DAYS. ISOLD TSRA ALREADY
PRESENT ALONG DEVELOPING WEST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL PUSH INLAND WITH
TEMPO TSRA VCNTY KLEE BY 16Z. EAST COAST SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING
AROUND 16Z WITH TEMPO TSRA AFFECTING ALL COASTAL TAF SITES. SCT-NMRS
COVERAGE THROUGH AFTERNOON WITH SEA BREEZE COLLISION JUST EAST OF
ORLANDO TAF SITES AND INLAND FROM COAST...ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EAST
AND OFFSHORE THROUGH 27/02Z BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND TO COASTAL TAF
SITES. TEMPO IFR/MVFR CONDS WILL OCCUR WITH ANY ACTIVITY...ALONG
WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR WIND GUSTS OVER 35KTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SFC RIDGE AXIS SOUTH OF CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A
DOMINANT W/SW FLOW 5-10KTS.  FLOW MORE S-SE IN THE AFTERNOON AS EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE FORMS. WIND SPEEDS TO REMAIN BELOW 15 KNOTS AND
SEAS RANGING FROM 1-2 FEET TODAY AND POSSIBLY UP TO 3 FEET OFFSHORE
TONIGHT.

MAIN THREAT REMAINS FOR OFFSHORE MOVING STORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ALONG THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
COULD AFFECT INTRACOASTAL AREAS BY MIDDAY...WITH STRONGER STORMS
PUSHING OFF THE COAST MAINLY NORTH OF SEBASTIAN THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

FORECAST...MOSES
IMPACT WEATHER/RADAR....ULRICH











000
FXUS62 KMLB 261315
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
915 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS AND
THE SMALLER DAY TO DAY DETAILS CONTINUE TO DRIVE THE COVERAGE OF
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE MEAN MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
EAST COAST WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST TODAY...WHICH WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN
THE TROUGHING IN PLACE ACROSS N FLORIDA. HOWEVER THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY...BOTH IN THE LOW
AND MID LEVELS.

THE PENINSULA REMAINS UNDERNEATH AN ENHANCED RIBBON OF MOISTURE WITH
DRIER AIR TO THE SOUTH AND EAST BEING SUPPRESSED BY THE RIDGE AXIS
AND DRIER AIR TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE TROUGH. AS THE TROUGH WASHES
OUT ACROSS THE STATE...MODELS SHOW SOME MID LEVEL DRYING LATER
TODAY. HOWEVER THIS APPEARS TO COME TOO LATE TO HAVE A SUBSTANTIVE
IMPACT ON STORM COVERAGE.

LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW WILL REMAIN WEAK ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE TO FORM AROUND MIDDAY...THOUGH IT WILL LIKELY NOT
MAKE IT MUCH FURTHER INLAND THAN I-95 AND BE DELAYED NORTH OF THE
CAPE. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PLACE THE GREATEST COVERAGE AND THREAT
FOR STRONGER STORMS WITH THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE COLLISION WHICH
WILL OCCUR FROM VOLUSIA COUNTY SOUTHWARD THROUGH OKEECHOBEE COUNTY
AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE TREASURE COAST. HOWEVER SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG BOTH SEA BREEZES AND OTHER
LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

STORM MOTION WILL BE TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH BRINGING ANY
ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS WITH THE SEA BREEZE COLLISION BACK TOWARD THE
COAST AND OFFSHORE THROUGH EARLY EVENING. MAIN STORM THREATS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING...STRONG WIND GUSTS
UP TO 40 TO 50 MPH AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. HIGHS WILL REACH THE
LOW 90S MOST LOCATIONS WITH INTERIOR URBAN AREAS POTENTIALLY
REACHING THE MID 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...
SIMILAR COVERAGE PATTERN TO THE PAST FEW DAYS. ISOLD TSRA ALREADY
PRESENT ALONG DEVELOPING WEST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL PUSH INLAND WITH
TEMPO TSRA VCNTY KLEE BY 16Z. EAST COAST SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING
AROUND 16Z WITH TEMPO TSRA AFFECTING ALL COASTAL TAF SITES. SCT-NMRS
COVERAGE THROUGH AFTERNOON WITH SEA BREEZE COLLISION JUST EAST OF
ORLANDO TAF SITES AND INLAND FROM COAST...ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EAST
AND OFFSHORE THROUGH 27/02Z BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND TO COASTAL TAF
SITES. TEMPO IFR/MVFR CONDS WILL OCCUR WITH ANY ACTIVITY...ALONG
WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR WIND GUSTS OVER 35KTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SFC RIDGE AXIS SOUTH OF CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A
DOMINANT W/SW FLOW 5-10KTS.  FLOW MORE S-SE IN THE AFTERNOON AS EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE FORMS. WIND SPEEDS TO REMAIN BELOW 15 KNOTS AND
SEAS RANGING FROM 1-2 FEET TODAY AND POSSIBLY UP TO 3 FEET OFFSHORE
TONIGHT.

MAIN THREAT REMAINS FOR OFFSHORE MOVING STORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ALONG THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
COULD AFFECT INTRACOASTAL AREAS BY MIDDAY...WITH STRONGER STORMS
PUSHING OFF THE COAST MAINLY NORTH OF SEBASTIAN THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

FORECAST...MOSES
IMPACT WEATHER/RADAR....ULRICH










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