000
FXUS62 KMLB 241432
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1030 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.DISCUSSION...
LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS CENTRAL FL ABOUT TO UNDERGO A LATE SPRING
AIRMASS CHANGE: A WEAK FRONTAL BNDRY PUSHING ACRS THE FL PANHANDLE
EMBEDDED WITHIN A MODERATE N/NW BREEZE THRU THE H100-H70 LYR.
MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOW PWAT VALUES DECREASING FROM 1.4" AT KMFL...TO
1.2" AT KTBW...TO 1.0" AT KJAX. H100-H85 MEAN RH VALUES ARND 70PCT
IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE BNDRY...BUT LIMITED PREFRONTAL
LOADING WITH CENTRAL FL VALUES DROPPING BLO 60PCT. MID/UPR LVL
ANALYSIS SHOWS LIMITED POTENTIAL MID LVL VORTICITY ADVECTION AS WELL
AS A 70KT H30-H20 JET STREAK OVER THE DEEP SOUTH POSITIONED TO PLACE
THE CENTRAL PENINSULA UNDER ITS DESCENDING RIGHT FRONT QUAD.
WHAT LITTLE PRECIP MAY OCCUR TODAY WILL BE LIMITED TO THE TREASURE
COAST AND THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION WHERE LOW LVL MOISTURE IS
HIGHEST AND WILL TAKE THE LONGEST TO SCOUR OUT. INDEED...LATEST
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE KEEPS SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE M/U60S S OF KTIX-KISM
THRU LATE AFTN. EVEN SO...THE LACK OF MID/UPR LVL DYNAMIC SUPPORT
MEANS ANY PRECIP WILL BE DEPENDENT ON MESOSCALE BNDRY
INTERACTION...SPECIFICALLY THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE. GIVEN THE WRLY
SYNOPTIC WIND COMPONENT...THIS WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL MID AFTN.
CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL HAVE A LATE START...CURRENT FCST ARND 20Z
LOOKS REASONABLE.
DESPITE THE NRLY WIND COMPONENT...WITH THE SUMMER SOLSTICE LESS THAN
A MONTH AWAY...NEAR FULL SUN WILL ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE
U80S ALONG THE COAST...L/M90S INLAND.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR ALL SITES UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED. BTWN 24/20Z-25/01Z...ISOLD
MVFR SHRAS/IFR TSRAS S OF KMLB-KBOW. BTWN 25/09Z-25/13Z...LCL IFR
VSBYS/CIGS IN SHALLOW MIFG N OF KTIX-KISM.
&&
.MARINE...
THIS AFTN...FRONTAL TROF PUSHING OFF THE ERN SEABOARD WILL GENERATE
A GENTLE TO MODERATE W/NW BREEZE THRU LATE MORNING...BCMG N/NW THRU
THE AFTN AS THE FRONT PUSHES INTO THE CENTRAL FL PENINSULA. LATEST
BUOY OBS SHOW SEAS BLO 2FT NEARSHORE AND 2-3FT OFFSHORE...SEAS UP TO
4FT PSBL IN THE GULF STREAM AS THE WINDS SHIFT TO THE MORE NRLY
COMPONENT. NO SIG CHANGES NECESSARY WITH THE MORNING UPDATE.
TONIGHT...(PREV DISC)
LOCAL GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN LATE TONIGHT AS A RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION...WITH NORTHEAST WINDS COMING UP TO 15-20KTS AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. SEAS 2-3FT NEARSHORE AND 3-4FT OFFSHORE THRU LATE
TONIGHT...BUILDING TO 3-5FT N OF SEBASTIAN INLET AND 2-4FT S OF THE
INLET BY DAYBREAK SAT.
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...BRAGAW
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...PENDERGRAST
000
FXUS62 KMLB 240725
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
325 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.DISCUSSION...
TODAY-TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING AND DEWPOINTS STILL
IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S WILL ALLOW FOR PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT
AGAIN AROUND DAYBREAK. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY EXPECT ANY FOG TO BE
VERY SHALLOW AND BURN OFF QUICKLY...BUT IT STILL COULD LEAD TO LOCAL
VISIBILITY DROPS WHERE IT DOES FORM.
AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST WILL SWING
THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING...WITH A LATE SEASON SURFACE FRONT ALSO
MOVING THROUGH THE PENINSULA ABOUT THE SAME TIME. MODELS ARE PRETTY
INSISTENT ON ROBUST DRY AIR ADVECTION ACCOMPANYING THE LOW LEVEL
NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND SHIFT THIS AFTERNOON...DROPPING DEWPOINTS INTO
THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR. THESE
DEWPOINTS WILL BE TOO DRY FOR PRECIP CHANCES...AND WILL LIMIT THE
MENTION OF LATE DAY SHOWERS AND STORMS PRIMARILY SOUTH OF SEBASTIAN
INLET AND AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE WHERE MOISTURE SHOULD TAKE ALL DAY
TO SCOUR OUT. EXPECT A FAIRLY LATE DAY START TO ACTIVITY...SO WILL
KEEP A MENTION AROUND THE LAKE AND OVER MARTIN COUNTY UNTIL JUST
AFTER SUNSET WHEN THE NORTHWEST STEERING FLOW WILL PUSH ACTIVITY
FURTHER SOUTH AND OFFSHORE.
NEAR FULL SUN WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM TO THE UPPER 80S ALONG THE
COAST AND LOW-MID 90S INLAND. WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT AS THE RIDGE AXIS DRIFTS EASTWARD...KEEPING MIN TEMPS MILD
IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S.
WEEKEND...DEEP LAYER DRYING BEHIND DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE SO WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED WELL TO THE NORTH WILL PROVIDE A BREEZY
NORTHEAST WIND FLOW SAT. THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN ON SUN WHILE WINDS
VEER MORE TO THE EAST. MAX TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...LOWER 80S
COAST AND MID 80S INLAND. LOW TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL INLAND
AND NORTH COAST...IN THE LOWER 60S. MINS ALONG THE SOUTH HALF OF
THE COAST SHOULD BE CLOSER TO NORMAL...MID TO UPPER 60S.
MON-FRI...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN TO OUR
NORTH. THIS WILL PROVIDE AN EASTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. A
GRADUAL MODERATION OF THE DRY AIR MASS WILL OCCUR AND SMALL POPS
WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST TUE IN THE SOUTH AND ACROSS THE AREA
WED-FRI. THIS ONSHORE FLOW PATTERN WITH LIMITED DEEP MOISTURE
USUALLY FAVORS MAINLY SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST AND A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF STORMS INLAND. TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY GET BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S ALONG THE COAST AND UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90
INLAND. MIN TEMPS WILL MODERATE INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
ALONG THE COAST AND MID-UPPER 60S INLAND.
&&
.AVIATION...PATCHY MVFR GROUND FOG POSSIBLE THIS MORNING THROUGH
12Z. OTHERWISE MUCH DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT TODAY
WILL KEEP MOST LOCATIONS DRY...WITH A FEW STORMS POSSIBLE VCNTY LAKE
OKEECHOBEE LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY-TONIGHT...SOUTHWEST WINDS 5-10KTS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
BECOME WEST AROUND DAYBREAK AND EVENTUALLY NORTH-NORTHWEST BY LATE
MORNING AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH. EXPECT TO SEE A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN SPEEDS TO 10-15KTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS WINDS
BECOME MORE NORTHEAST...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST.
LOCAL GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN LATE TONIGHT AS A RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION...WITH NORTHEAST WINDS COMING UP TO 15-20KTS AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. SEAS 2-3FT NEARSHORE AND 3-4FT OFFSHORE THRU LATE
TONIGHT...BUILDING TO 3-5FT N OF SEBASTIAN INLET AND 2-4FT S OF THE
INLET BY DAYBREAK SAT.
WEEKEND...SAT IS STILL SHAPING UP TO BE A POOR BOATING DAY. BREEZY
NORTHEAST WINDS 15-20 KNOTS INDICATED. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE
NORTH WILL WEAKEN ON SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD CAUSE THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO EASE IN NORTHERN SECTIONS...WHERE WINDS SHOULD BE
CLOSE TO 10 KNOTS. SOUTHERN WATERS EXPECTED TO BE 10-15 KNOTS.
MON-TUE...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH. SLIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING IS INDICATED...SO EAST WINDS SHOULD
BE CLOSE TO 15 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL PERIODS 15-20 KNOTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
TODAY...FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT BOTH SURFACE
AND TRANSPORT WINDS TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST BRINGING IN MODERATE DRY
AIR ADVECTION THRU THE END OF THE WEEK WITH LITTLE IF ANY MEASURABLE
PRECIP. AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL DROP TO AROUND 35 PERCENT ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
35-40 PERCENT POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REST OF THE INTERIOR. HOWEVER THE
SFC PGRAD SHOULD BE LOOSE ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
TO DEVELOP...KEEPING COASTAL AFTN RH VALUES NEAR 50PCT. THIS WILL
ALSO KEEP SURFACE WIND SPEEDS AROUND 10 MPH.
WEEKEND...MIN RH VALUES BELOW 35 PERCENT INDICATED ACROSS THE
NORTH INTERIOR ON SAT AND CLOSE TO 35 PERCENT ON SUNDAY. WINDS
THERE ARE FORECAST TO BE 15 MPH ON SAT...BUT AFTER RECENT
RAINS...ERC VALUES LOOK TO MARGINAL FOR FIRE WEATHER WATCH.
MON-TUE...GRADUAL AIR MASS MODERATION WILL OCCUR WITH NORTH
INTERIOR MIN RH VALUES RISING ABOVE 40 PERCENT. EAST WINDS WILL
REMAIN BREEZY ALONG THE COAST AND SHOULD BE 10-15 MPH OVER THE
INTERIOR.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 89 67 80 61 / 10 0 0 0
MCO 92 68 86 62 / 10 10 0 0
MLB 88 71 82 69 / 10 10 0 0
VRB 89 71 82 66 / 20 10 0 0
LEE 91 67 86 62 / 10 0 0 0
SFB 93 68 85 62 / 10 0 0 0
ORL 90 70 86 64 / 10 10 0 0
FPR 90 71 83 67 / 20 10 0 0
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MOSES
LONG TERM....LASCODY
AVIATION...99
000
FXUS62 KMLB 240156
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
956 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013
.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION FORMED DUE TO MULTIPLE
BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS...WITH A FEW STORMS PULSING TO MINIMAL SEVERE
LIMITS ACCORDING TO RADAR ASSESSMENTS. ALTHOUGH A FUNNEL CLOUD WAS
OBSERVED WITH ONE CELL IN FAR NORTH BREVARD COUNTY...NO REPORTS OF
LARGE HAIL OR DAMAGING WINDS WERE RECEIVED...BUT THE STORMS WERE
STRONGEST IN FAIRLY RURAL LOCATIONS.
ACTIVITY RAPIDLY DIMINISHING DURING PAST HOUR WITH LOSS OF
INSTABILITY...WITH JUST A FEW LINGERING STORMS PUSHING SOUTH
ACROSS THE NORTHERN SHORE OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE AT THIS TIME.
MODIFIED GRIDS AND ZFP EARLIER TO ACCOUNT FOR LINGERING CONVECTION
INTO THE LATE EVENING...SO CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE.
CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 60S
MOST AREAS...EXCEPT AROUND 70 OVER ST. LUCIE AND MARTIN COUNTIES.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR ALL SITES.
&&
.MARINE...SFC/BNDRY LYR WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE BCMG W/SW OVERNIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO IS ABSORBED BY A
LARGER CONTINENTAL RIDGE BUILDING OUT OF THE CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS.
SEAS MAINLY 2-3FT...UP TO 4FT IN THE GULF STREAM N OF THE CAPE.
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...SPRATT
IMPACT WX....BOWEN
000
FXUS62 KMLB 231955
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
355 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013
.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT...
H100-H70 ANTICYCLONE OVER THE N CNTRL GOMEX WILL GENERATE A DEEP NW
FLOW ACRS CENTRAL FL OVERNIGHT. LATEST RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS LIMITED
INSTABILITY ACRS CENTRAL FL...COMMON IN SUCH A FLOW REGIME. WEAK LOW
LVL PGRAD ALLOWED THE EAST COAST SEABREEZE TO DVLP BY MID
AFTN...WHICH WILL PUSH STEADILY INLAND THROUGH SUNSET. ISOLD
SHRAS/TSRAS ALONG AND N OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR SHOULD DISSIPATE BY
SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
WEAK FRONTAL BNDRY WILL PUSH INTO THE FL STRAITS...ALLOWING A LIGHT
W/NW BREEZE TO PREVAIL OVER LAND OVERNIGHT. DEEP LYR DRY AIR
ADVECTION WILL ALLOW SKIES TO BCM MCLR OVERNIGHT...UPSTREAM SFC
DEWPOINTS OVER N FL SUGGEST MIN TEMPS IN THE M/U60S...GENERALLY
WITHIN A DEG OR TWO OF CLIMO AVG.
FRI-FRI NIGHT...
CONTINENTAL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS WILL BUILD INTO THE
DEEP SOUTH...RESULTING IN A STEADY NW TO NE BREEZE THRU THE H100-H70
LYR THAT WILL BRING OVERALL DRY WX TO E CNTRL FL. LATE SEASON COOL
FRONT WILL BRING LIMITED MOISTURE TO THE CENTRAL PENINSULA...WHILE
LATEST RAP ANALYSIS INDICATES LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR MID LVL
VORTICITY ADVECTION OR UPR LVL EVACUATION.
PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED TO AREAS S OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR...BUT
WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH...ANTICIPATE AFTN
COVERAGE AOB 20PCT...SHIFTING OFFSHORE AFT SUNSET. W/NW FLOW WILL
PREVENT SEA BREEZE FORMATION N OF THE CAPE...MAYBE LATE DAY
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE TREASURE COAST. NEAR FULL SUN WILL ALLOW TEMPS
TO WARM TO THE U80S ALONG THE COAST...L90S INLAND. WEAK ONSHORE FLOW
WILL DVLP OVERNIGHT AS THE RIDGE AXIS DRIFTS EWD...KEEPING MIN TEMPS
SLIGHTLY ABV AVG...M/U60S INTERIOR AND U60S/L70S ALONG THE COAST.
SAT-TUE...(PREV DISC)
IT WILL BE A WARM AND DRY MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND ACROSS THE AREA AS
NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BEHIND THE TROUGH USHERS IN DRY AIR THAT
WILL STAY IN PLACE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AT THE SURFACE...STOUT ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON SATURDAY AS THE
SURFACE HIGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES BUILDS TO THE SOUTHEAST AND OFF
THE CAROLINA COAST WITH ITS AXIS ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA INTO NEXT WEEK.
FLOW WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH AND DEEP ENOUGH THAT A FEW ATLANTIC
SHOWERS REACHING THE COAST CAN`T BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE TREASURE COAST WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE HIGHER. HOWEVER THE
PROBABILITY THIS FAR OUT REMAINS TO LOW TO MENTION.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES COOLER IN THE
LOW-MID 80S ALONG THE COAST AND MID-UPPER 80S INLAND. POST FRONTAL
DRY AIR AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP
INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE INTERIOR SAT-SUN NIGHTS BEFORE
THE GRADUALLY MOISTENING IN ONSHORE FLOW BRINGS LOWS UP IN THE
MID-UPPER 60S. COASTAL TEMPS REMAIN WARM AND MUGGY IN THE LOW-MID
70S. LOCATIONS WHERE WINDS DROP OVERNIGHT OR WEAK DRAINAGE FLOW
DEVELOPS MAY DROP SEVERAL MORE DEGREES INTO THE MID 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR ALL SITES UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED. BTWN 23/20Z-23/24Z...ISOLD
MVFR SHRAS/IFR TSRAS E OF KDAB-KOBE. BTWN 24/08Z-24/12Z...LCL IFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN BR.
&&
.MARINE...
TONIGHT...LIGHT TO GENTLE E/SE BREEZE NEARSHORE THRU SUNSET DUE TO
THE INLAND MOVING EAST COAST SEA BREEZE...WRLY BREEZE OFFSHORE IN
THE WAKE OF A WEAK FRONTAL BNDRY PUSHING INTO THE FL STRAITS.
SFC/BNDRY LYR WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE BCMG W/SW OVERNIGHT AS HI
PRES OVER THE CENTRAL GOMEX IS ABSORBED BY A LARGER CONTINENTAL
RIDGE BUILDING OUT OF THE CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS. SEAS MAINLY 2-3FT...
UP TO 4FT IN THE GULF STREAM N OF CAPE CANAVERAL.
FRI-FRI NIGHT...LIGHT TO GENTLE NW WINDS BCMG N/NE THRU THE DAY AS
THE CONTINENTAL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. LCL PGRAD WILL
TIGHTEN LATE FRI NIGHT AS THE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION...WINDS
WILL RESPOND BY FRESHENING TO 10-15KTS NEARSHORE AND ARND 15KTS
OFFSHORE. SEAS 2-3FT NEARSHORE AND 3-4FT OFFSHORE THRU LATE FRI
NIGHT...BUILDING TO 3-5FT N OF SEBASTIAN INLET AND 2-4FT S OF THE
INLET BY DAYBREAK SAT.
MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND...(PREV DISC)
MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF SLIGHTLY ON THE MAGNITUDE OF THE NORTHEAST
WINDS SURGE SAT MORNING...THOUGH STILL EXPECT SPEEDS AROUND 15-20KTS
THROUGH LATE SAT NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO
SUNDAY AS THEY VEER TO THE EAST AROUND 15KTS. LIGHTEST WINDS WILL BE
NORTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL INTO MONDAY AT 10-15KTS WHICH WILL BE
CLOSEST TO THE RIDGE AXIS.
WIND SURGE WILL BRING SEAS TO AROUND 6FT OFFSHORE SAT
AFTERNOON/NIGHT WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW KEEPING HEIGHTS 4-5FT THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NWRLY TRANSPORT FLOW WILL GENERATE MODERATE DRY AIR ADVECTION THRU
THE END OF THE WEEK...RESULTING IN LITTLE IF ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP.
RH VALUES ALONG AND N OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR WILL FALL BLO 35PCT FOR A
FEW HRS EACH AFTN...BUT SFC PGRAD SHOULD BE LOOSE ENOUGH TO ALLOW
THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP...KEEPING COASTAL AFTN RH
VALUES NEAR 50PCT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 70 88 68 80 / 10 10 0 0
MCO 69 92 69 86 / 10 10 0 0
MLB 71 88 72 81 / 10 20 10 0
VRB 71 88 72 82 / 10 20 10 0
LEE 69 91 66 86 / 10 10 0 0
SFB 69 91 69 85 / 10 10 0 0
ORL 70 92 69 86 / 10 10 0 0
FPR 71 89 72 82 / 10 20 10 10
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...BRAGAW
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...PENDERGRAST
000
FXUS62 KMLB 231436
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1036 AM EDT THU MAY 23 2013
.DISCUSSION...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE UPSTREAM CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF EARLY
TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA. AIRMASS DRYING WILL
BRING CONDITIONS GENERALLY LESS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF PCPN.
RAIN CHCS HAVE BEEN LOWERED OVER VOLUSIA CO. STARTING PWAT FROM
THE MORNING TBW SOUNDING WAS 1.51 INCHES AND GPS PWAT VALUES
GENERALLY AVERAGING FROM 1.3 TO 1.5 INCHES. PARTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS WL CONTINUE DURING THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON WITH
HIGHER POP RESERVED FOR THE SPACE AND TREASURE COASTS DUE TO AN
EAST COAST BOUNDARY COUPLED WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER MOISTURE AND SFC
HEATING.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDS WITH DIURNAL SHRA/TS PSBL MNLY AT THE COASTAL LOCATIONS.
BRIEF PCPN AND PSBL VCTS WL BRING CIGS/VSBY NR MVFR CONDS MNLY FM 18Z-23Z.
&&
.MARINE...
W/NW FLOW WITH FETCH LIMITED CONDS OVER THE MARINE AREA.
WINDS/SEAS LCLY HIGHER NR ISOLD TS MAINLY FROM MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON NR THE COAST.
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BRAGAW
LONG TERM....PENDERGRAST
000
FXUS62 KMLB 230747
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
340 AM EDT THU MAY 23 2013
.DISCUSSION...
...THE TRANSITION TO A DRIER PATTERN BEGINS TODAY...
CURRENT...LOCAL SFC PRESSURE AND LOW LEVEL WIND PATTERNS ARE IN THE
PROCESS OF COLLAPSING BASED ON SFC METARS AND CCAFS 915MHZ PROFILER
DATA. BOTH SHOW PRONOUNCED VEERING/WEAKENING OF LOW LEVEL FLOW TO
CALM AT THE SFC...VERY LIGHT (<10KT) S-SW JUST OFF THE DECK.
SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS ECFL THIS MORNING AND LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS HAVE ALLOW SOME PATCHY SHALLOW MIST TO DEVELOP NOT TOO
FAR WEST OF LAKE/OSCEOLA COUNTIES. THE ONSET OF GOES-14 DATA AROUND
0800 UTC/400 AM WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER INTERROGATION OF 3.9UM AND FOG
CHANNEL IMAGERY.
TODAY/TONIGHT...DEEPEST MOISTURE PULLS NE AWAY FROM THE CWA WITH
PWAT VALUES OF 1.5 TO 1.7" PRIOR TO SUNRISE DROPPING OFF BY A FEW
TENTHS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS...COUPLED WITH A RATHER FLAT MID
AND UPPER LEVEL PATTERN...SHOULD MAKE FOR MUCH LESS OVERALL COVERAGE
OF DIURNAL CONVECTION. LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERING TO W-NW COUPLED WITH
INCREASING NWRLY STEERING FLOW OF 15-20KT BY LATE AFTERNOON SHOULD
FAVOR THE EAST COAST FOR PRECIP CHANCES TODAY. AS SUCH...HAVE GONE
20 INLAND/30 COAST...WHICH IS ABOUT 5-10 PCT ABOVE MAV GUIDANCE.
EXPECT EAST COAST SEA BREEZE TO BE A LITTLE LATER IN FORMING AND
SLOWER TO PUSH TOWARD THE INTERIOR...THEREFORE EXPECT MAXES TO REACH
THE U80S ALONG THE COAST...AND 90-91 WEST OF I-95. A BRIEF LINGERING
SHOWER OR STORM POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST...BUT SHOULD END OR DRIFT
OFFSHORE BY 10-11 PM IF NOT BEFORE. MINS IN THE U60S-L70S.
FRIDAY...MUCH DRIER END TO THE WORK WEEK AS THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH/LOW THAT HAS BEEN TRANSITING THE COUNTRY THROUGH THE WEEK
SWINGS THROUGH NEW ENGLAND AND INTO THE ATLANTIC BY FRIDAY NIGHT.
SERIES OF SURFACE LOWS ACCOMPANYING IT WILL BRING A LATE SEASON
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE PENINSULA FRIDAY MORNING...USHERING
IN A SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIRMASS FOR THE WEEKEND. MODELS ARE PRETTY
QUICK TO SCOUR OUT EVEN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WITH
PERHAPS JUST ENOUGH LINGERING FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS
THE TREASURE COAST AND NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN THE AFTERNOON. WEST-
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL HOLD OFF ANY SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT TO LATE DAY
(IF AT ALL) AND IT WILL BE A WARM DAY ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW 90S. OVERNIGHT LOWS CONTINUE IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S.
SAT-TUE...IT WILL BE A WARM AND DRY MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND ACROSS THE
AREA AS NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BEHIND THE TROUGH USHERS IN DRY
AIR THAT WILL STAY IN PLACE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AT THE SURFACE...STOUT ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON SATURDAY AS THE
SURFACE HIGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES BUILDS TO THE SOUTHEAST AND OFF
THE CAROLINA COAST WITH ITS AXIS ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA INTO NEXT WEEK.
FLOW WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH AND DEEP ENOUGH THAT A FEW ATLANTIC
SHOWERS REACHING THE COAST CAN`T BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE TREASURE COAST WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE HIGHER. HOWEVER THE
PROBABILITY THIS FAR OUT REMAINS TO LOW TO MENTION.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES COOLER IN THE
LOW-MID 80S ALONG THE COAST AND MID-UPPER 80S INLAND. POST FRONTAL
DRY AIR AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP
INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE INTERIOR SAT-SUN NIGHTS BEFORE
THE GRADUALLY MOISTENING IN ONSHORE FLOW BRINGS LOWS UP IN THE
MID-UPPER 60S. COASTAL TEMPS REMAIN WARM AND MUGGY IN THE LOW-MID
70S. LOCATIONS WHERE WINDS DROP OVERNIGHT OR WEAK DRAINAGE FLOW
DEVELOPS MAY DROP SEVERAL MORE DEGREES INTO THE MID 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR. POPS DON`T LOOK HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT VC TERM
FOR THE INTERIOR AERODROMES. WENT WITH LATE (20-21Z) AFTERNOON FOR
ONSET OF VCTS/PROB30 TS GROUPS FOR THE DAB-MLB-SUA CORRIDOR.
&&
.MARINE...
SRLY WINDS AROUND 10KT WEAKEN AS THEY VEER TO SW TODAY/TONIGHT.
ONSHORE SEA BREEZE WILL SNAP WINDS TO E-SE NEAR THE COAST IN THE
AFTERNOON. 2-4FT SEAS WILL DROP BACK TO MAINLY 2-3FT TONIGHT.
MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND...MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF SLIGHTLY ON THE
MAGNITUDE OF THE NORTHEAST WINDS SURGE SAT MORNING...THOUGH STILL
EXPECT SPEEDS AROUND 15-20KTS THROUGH THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO SUNDAY AS THEY VEER TO THE EAST AROUND
15KTS. LIGHTEST WINDS WILL BE NORTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL INTO MONDAY AT
10-15KTS WHICH WILL BE CLOSEST TO THE RIDGE AXIS.
WIND SURGE WILL BRING SEAS TO AROUND 6FT OFFSHORE SAT
AFTERNOON/NIGHT WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW KEEPING HEIGHTS 4-5FT THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 88 69 90 68 / 30 20 10 10
MCO 91 69 92 68 / 20 10 10 0
MLB 88 71 89 72 / 30 20 20 10
VRB 89 70 89 71 / 30 20 20 10
LEE 90 69 91 68 / 20 10 10 0
SFB 92 70 92 69 / 20 10 10 10
ORL 90 72 92 71 / 20 10 10 0
FPR 89 69 90 71 / 30 20 20 10
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...CRISTALDI
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX....MOSES
000
FXUS62 KMLB 230114
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
910 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013
.DISCUSSION...
.UPDATE...A SFC TROUGH WILL PULL INTO THE ATLANTIC OVERNIGHT WITH SE
LOW LVL FLOW BECOMING W-WNW BY MORNING. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH LOWERING RAIN
CHANCES THU INTO FRIDAY. FOR TONIGHT...DIURNAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
HAS WANED OVER LAND. FOR EVENING UPDATE WILL BE ABLE TO DROP EVENING
POPS ON LAND AND EXPECT REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS
OVER THE GULF STREAM WATERS OVERNIGHT. PATCHY LATE NIGHT GROUND FOG
POSSIBLE OVER MAINLY INTERIOR AREAS.
&&
.AVIATION...
CONVECTIVE SHRA/TSRA HAVE WANED EARLY THIS EVENING. MVFR VSBYS
POSSIBLE IN SHALLOW FOG TOWARD MORNING. LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS THU WILL TURN ONSHORE (NE) IN A SEA BREEZE ALG THE COAST
BTWN 18Z AND 21Z THU AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...
SE WINDS THIS EVENING WILL BECOME W/SW BY SUNRISE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
WATERS. SEAS 2-3 FT NEAR SHORE AND 3-4 FT OFFSHORE. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/LIGHTNING STORMS EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF STREAM WATERS
LATER TONIGHT AIDED BY SFC TROUGH MOVING OFFSHORE.
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
VOLKMER/SEDLOCK
000
FXUS62 KMLB 221946
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
346 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013
.DISCUSSION...
THRU TONIGHT...OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES PUSHING INLAND WILL COLLIDE WITH
A WELL DEFINED WEST COAST SEA BREEZE NEAR OR WEST OF LAKE COUNTY
EARLY THIS EVENING. SO EXPECT A GREATER COVERAGE OF STORMS OVER
THE INTERIOR. PRIMARY THREAT REMAINS LIGHTNING STRIKES AND HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH LOCALLY UP TO 3 INCHES IN AN HOUR. STEERING FLOW HAS
A LITTLE MORE MOTION BACK TOWARD THE EAST COAST TODAY SO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST
INTO EARLY EVENING. BUT EXPECT ALL ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH SHORTLY
AFTER SUNSET. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES WILL PROMOTE PATCHY
FOG TOWARD MORNING.
THU-FRI...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WAS OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
EARLIER IN THE WEEK WILL MERGE WITH A LARGER TROUGH THAT WILL BE
SWINGING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY AND INTO NEW ENGLAND
BY FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE UPPER LOW/SHORTWAVE WILL TAKE MOST OF THE AVAILABLE MID LEVEL
MOISTURE WITH IT LEADING TO DRYING IN THE MID LEVELS ON
THURSDAY...BUT LEAVING ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS. SO A LATER DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS SHOULD ALLOW MORE HEATING TO OCCUR LEADING TO A FEW
STRONGER STORMS. WEST-NORTHWEST STEERING FLOW IS EXPECTED TO FOCUS
STORMS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE PENINSULA LATE IN THE AFTN.
AN EVEN DRIER AIRMASS MOVES IN ON FRIDAY AS THE LARGER TROUGH AXIS
MOVES EAST OF THE STATE ALONG WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK SURFACE
FRONT ACCOMPANYING IT. THE FRONT LOOKS TO BE EARLY ENOUGH IN THE DAY
THAT THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE TREASURE COAST AND
NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE.
TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S. A LITTLE WARMER FRI WITH MID
90S POSSIBLE INTERIOR.
SAT-TUE (PREVIOUS)...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
GULF OF MEXICO AND INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA OVER THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH THE NORTHEAST AND CANADIAN MARITIMES. STOUT ONSHORE FLOW
WILL DEVELOP ON SATURDAY BEHIND THE WEEK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS THE
SURFACE HIGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES BUILDS TO THE SOUTHEAST AND OFF
THE CAROLINA COAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ENOUGH DRY AIR WILL WORK IN BEHIND THE FRONT THAT RAIN CHANCES WILL
REMAIN FAIRLY MINIMAL (OR NONEXISTENT) THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY...
WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW ATLANTIC SHOWERS REACHING THE COAST
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE TREASURE COAST WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE HIGHER.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES COOLER IN THE
LOW-MID 80S ALONG THE COAST AND MID-UPPER 80S INLAND...BUT LEAD TO
WARM AND MUGGY OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 70S ALONG THE COAST AND
MID-UPPER 60S INLAND.
&&
.AVIATION...
SCT-NMRS SHRA/TSRA WILL AFFECT MOST TERMINALS ESP LEE/SFB/MCO/ISM
THROUGH 00Z. MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE IN SHALLOW FOG TOWARD MORNING.
LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS THU WILL TURN ONSHORE (NE) IN A SEA
BREEZE ALG THE COAST BY 18Z.
&&
.MARINE...
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE PUSHED SOUTH ON THURSDAY BY A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE 5 KTS OR LESS DURING THE DAY WITH EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW
AROUND 10KTS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE SEA BREEZE NEAR
THE COAST. FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE STATE LATE FRIDAY MORNING
WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF NORTHWEST WINDS BEFORE THE FLOW BECOMES
NORTHEAST AND INCREASES LATE IN THE DAY. SEAS 2-4FT.
MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND (PREVIOUS)...NORTHEAST WIND SURGE AROUND
20KTS WILL START OUT THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH STRONG WINDS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS WILL ONLY SLIGHTLY DIMINISH INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND SUNDAY WITH EAST WINDS 15-20KTS. WIND
SURGE WILL BRING SEAS TO AROUND 6FT OFFSHORE SAT AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY. AN SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED STARTING SAT MORNING AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 69 87 68 91 / 30 30 10 20
MCO 69 90 69 93 / 30 30 10 20
MLB 69 86 69 90 / 30 30 10 20
VRB 71 89 69 90 / 30 30 20 20
LEE 70 91 70 91 / 30 20 10 20
SFB 70 92 71 93 / 30 30 10 20
ORL 72 90 72 92 / 30 30 10 20
FPR 71 87 67 91 / 30 30 20 20
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
KELLY/BRAGAW
000
FXUS62 KMLB 221438
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1035 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013
.DISCUSSION...
LARGE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE W ATLC WILL COMBINE WITH A WEAK LOW LVL
TROF CENTERED OFF THE FL BIG BEND TO GENERATE AN ACTIVE WX PATTERN
ACRS CENTRAL FL. DEEP BUT LIGHT SRLY FLOW WILL DRAW DEEP MOISTURE UP
FROM THE S...PWAT VALUES INCREASE FROM 1.5" AT KTBW/KXMR TO 1.8" AT
KMFL. RAP ANALYSIS SHOWING H100-H70 MEAN RH VALUES AOA 70PCT ACRS
THE ENTIRE PENINSULA. AIRMASS IS NOT EXPLOSIVELY UNSTABLE AS H50
TEMPS ARE HOLDING ARND -9C WITH MID LVL LAPSE RATES BTWN
5.5-6.0C/KM. HOWEVER...POSITION OF THE TROF AXIS WILL PLACE THE EAST
CENTRAL PENINSULA ON ITS ASCENDING SIDE.
ACTIVITY ALREADY DVLPG AREAWIDE WILL CONTINUE THRU THE DAY...ESP
ALNG THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE AS IT DVLPS AND DRIFTS INLAND. THE
OFF HOUR MAV GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE POPS BTWN 60-70PCT...
CAN SEE NO REASON TO DISCOUNT THEM AS MOISTURE IS ALMOST UNIFORMLY
DISTRIBUTED THRU THE COLUMN AND THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT INHIBITORS
TO UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION. MAX TEMPS WITHIN A FEW DEGS OF CLIMO
AVG...M/U80S AREAWIDE.
MINOR CHANGES TO PRECIP DISTRIBUTION AND TIMING TO FOCUS HIGHER POPS
OVER INTERIOR AND N CSTL ZONES.
&&
.AVIATION...
THRU 22/22Z...PREVAILING VFR ALL SITES...NMRS SHRAS/SCT TSRAS DVLPG
AND MVG N/NE ARND 10KTS WILL PRODUCE TEMPO IFR VSBYS/CIGS. BTWN
22/22Z-23/01Z...CONVECTION DIMINISHING BCMG SCT MVFR SHRAS W OF
KTIX-KOBE...CONTG THRU 23/03Z. AFT 23/03Z...VFR ALL SITES WITH LCL
MVFR VSBYS IN BR.
&&
.MARINE...
NO HIGHLIGHTS...NO SIG CHANGES. ATLC RIDGE AXIS OVER THE W ATLC WILL
GENERATE A LIGHT TO GENTLE S/SE BREEZE ACRS THE AREA...SEAS 2-3FT
NEARSHORE AND 3-4FT OFFSHORE. NMRS SHRAS/ISOLD TSRAS OVER THE GULF
STREAM DUE TO A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS.
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...KELLY
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...BRAGAW
000
FXUS62 KMLB 220733
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
330 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013
.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT...LIGHT SE-SSE FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE ON WRN PERIPHERY OF THE
ATLC RIDGE. H50-H30 LOW IS ALONG THE ECFL COAST ATTM AND APPEARS TO
BE STARTING TO WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS ENE INTO THE ATLC. BASED ON METARS
AND FROM WHAT CAN BE DISCERNED FROM GOES-W IMAGERY...SKIES ARE MCLR
OVHD. A FEW OBS ARE STARTING TO REPORT SOME LIGHT MIST OVER THE LAST
HOUR.
TODAY/TONIGHT...LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY OF DIURNAL CONVECTION
FOR ECFL AS DEEP MOISTURE (MEAN PWAT ~1.7") COUPLED WITH PROXIMITY
OF THE SLOW MOVING MID-UPR LOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION
TO READILY DEVELOP FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. MAV POPS CAME IN JUST A BIT HIGHER (~60) AND SEE NO REASON
TO DEPART FROM THOSE NUMBERS. MAX TEMPS PRETTY CLOSE TO M80S ALONG
THE COAST AND U80S INLAND. LINGERING EARLY EVENING SHOWER/FEW TS
SHOULD DISSIPATE A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET AS MID/UPPER LOW WILL
OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH AS IT CONTINUES TO LIFT NEW AWAY FROM FL.
SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING...COULD SEE SOME PATCHES OF SHALLOW LATE
NIGHT MIST OR FOG. MINS WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF 70F.
THU-FRI...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WAS OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
EARLIER IN THE WEEK WILL CONTINUE ITS MERGE WITH THE LARGER TROUGH
THAT WILL BE SWINGING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY AND INTO
NEW ENGLAND BY FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE EASTWARDS MOVEMENT OF UPPER LOW/SHORTWAVE WILL TAKE MOST OF THE
AVAILABLE MID LEVEL MOISTURE WITH IT LEADING TO DRYING IN THE MID
LEVELS ON THURSDAY...BUT LEAVING ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS. WEST-NORTHWEST STEERING FLOW
IS EXPECTED TO FOCUS STORMS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE PENINSULA.
AN EVEN DRIER AIRMASS MOVES IN ON FRIDAY AS THE LARGER TROUGH AXIS
MOVES EAST OF THE STATE ALONG WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK SURFACE
FRONT ACCOMPANYING IT. THE FRONT LOOKS TO BE EARLY ENOUGH IN THE DAY
THAT THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE TREASURE COAST AND
NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE.
TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S.
SAT-TUE...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH
THE NORTHEAST AND CANADIAN MARITIMES. STOUT ONSHORE FLOW WILL
DEVELOP ON SATURDAY BEHIND THE WEEK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS THE SURFACE
HIGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES BUILDS TO THE SOUTHEAST AND OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ENOUGH DRY AIR WILL WORK IN BEHIND THE FRONT THAT RAIN CHANCES WILL
REMAIN FAIRLY MINIMAL (OR NONEXISTENT) THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY...
WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW ATLANTIC SHOWERS REACHING THE COAST
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE TREASURE COAST WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE HIGHER.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES COOLER IN THE
LOW-MID 80S ALONG THE COAST AND MID-UPPER 80S INLAND...BUT LEAD TO
WARM AND MUGGY OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 70S ALONG THE COAST AND
MID-UPPER 60S INLAND.
&&
.AVIATION...MAY NEED TO AMD AND THROW IN SOME MVFR MIST FOR SEVERAL
OF THE TAF SITES 09Z-12Z. OTRW...INTRODUCED 2HR OF TEMPO TS ALONG
THE COAST IN THE 16-19Z TIME FRAME...AND 2-3HR INLAND 18-21Z...
ALTHOUGH ACTIVITY WILL LINGER INVOF LCL AERODROMES FOR AT LEAST A
COUPLE MORE HRS.
&&
.MARINE...EXPECT CIRCULATION ON WRN SIDE OF ATLC RIDGE TO CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE A GENTLE TO MODERATE SE/S BREEZE <15KT. SEAS IN THE 3-4FT
RANGE THROUGH TONIGHT.
THU-FRI...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE PUSHED SOUTHWARDS ON THURSDAY
BY A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN US. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE 5 KTS OR LESS DURING THE DAY WITH EAST-SOUTHEAST
FLOW AROUND 10KTS DEVELOPING LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE SEA
BREEZE. FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE STATE LATE FRIDAY MORNING WITH A
BRIEF PERIOD OF NORTHWEST WINDS BEFORE THE FLOW BECOMES NORTHEAST
AND INCREASES LATE IN THE DAY. SEAS 2-4FT.
MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND...NORTHEAST WIND SURGE AROUND 20KTS WILL START
OUT THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH STRONG WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY. WINDS WILL ONLY SLIGHTLY DIMINISH INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND
SUNDAY WITH EAST WINDS 15-20KTS. WIND SURGE WILL BRING SEAS TO
AROUND 6FT OFFSHORE SAT AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY. AN SCA WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED STARTING SAT MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 86 69 88 69 / 60 30 30 20
MCO 89 70 90 68 / 60 30 20 10
MLB 85 71 87 69 / 60 30 30 20
VRB 85 70 88 69 / 60 30 30 20
LEE 88 70 91 71 / 60 30 20 10
SFB 89 70 92 71 / 60 30 30 10
ORL 88 71 91 72 / 60 30 20 10
FPR 85 70 88 69 / 60 30 40 20
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CRISTALDI
LONG TERM....MOSES
AVIATION...CRISTALDI
000
FXUS62 KMLB 220152
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
952 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT/TONIGHT...FEWER LINGERING POCKETS OF INSTABILITY EXIST
TONIGHT SO THINK THAT THERE WILL BE NO NEED FOR POPS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. POPS ALONG THE COAST ARE
QUESTIONABLE AS THERE IS LITTLE CONVECTION PRESENTLY OVER THE
ATLANTIC. THE GFS INDICATES A LIGHT SOUTH LOW LEVEL FLOW
OVERNIGHT...BUT LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE PRESENTLY OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST.
WITH THE CUT OFF LOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA AND VERY MOIST LOW
LEVELS...WILL KEEP A SLIGHT POP ALONG THE COAST.
&&
.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR. SHOULD SEE CONVECTION REDEVELOP OFFSHORE AND POSSIBLY
AFFECT THE COASTAL TERMINALS...ESPECIALLY KMLB-KSUA. IF THERE IS
ENOUGH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE INTERIOR...PATCHY FOG
MAY DEVELOP IN THE PRE DAWN HOURS.
&&
.MARINE...
TONIGHT/WED...WEAKENING ATLC RIDGE WILL SLACKEN THE PRES GRAD
ACROSS THE WATERS SO SE WINDS SHOULD DECREASE TO 5-10 KNOTS LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY WED. PERSISTENT E/NE SWELL WILL KEEP SEAS A LITTLE
HIGHER...3-4 FEET...THAN WHAT WOULD BE EXPECTED IN SUCH WIND FLOW.
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
FORECASTS...LASCODY
IMPACT WX/RADAR...BOWEN
000
FXUS62 KMLB 211957
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
357 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT/TONIGHT...EARLY ONSET OF SHOWERS AND STORMS HAS STABILIZED
MUCH OF EAST CENTRAL FL NOW UNDER A CANOPY OF DEBRIS CLOUDINESS.
AS EXPECTED...FOCUS FOR CONVECTION IS PUSHING TOWARD THE FL WEST
COAST HOWEVER. MARTIN/OKEECHOBEE COUNTIES ARE AN EXCEPTION AS THEY
HAVE NOT BEEN WORKED OVER WITH CONVECTION YET TODAY SO THAT
APPEARS TO BE THE BEST CHANCE THRU EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER...
POCKETS OF ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO EARLY EVE
OVER AREAS THAT HAVE NOT BEEN WORKED OVER OR WHERE SOME ADDITIONAL
HEATING CAN TAKE PLACE. LARGE AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN IN
THE WAKE OF THE CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING
OVER LAND. EXPECT CONVECTION TO REFIRE OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS
TONIGHT AND MAY BRUSH THE COAST ESP SOUTH OF THE CAPE SO WILL HOLD
ONTO HIGHER POPS (30-40 PERCENT) THERE OVERNIGHT.
WED...UPPER LOW OVER THE FL PENINSULA OPENS UP AND LIFTS NE.
EXPECT ONE MORE DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL RAIN CHANCES AROUND 50
PERCENT. LIKE PREVIOUS DAYS EXPECT SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP
NEAR OR JUST INLAND FROM THE EAST COAST WITH FOCUS SHIFTING TO
THE FAR INTERIOR DURING THE AFTN WITH BOUNDARY COLLISIONS.
WED NIGHT/THURSDAY...WRN ATLC RIDGE WILL SHIFT E AS BROAD UPPER
LVL TROUGH SWINGS INTO THE ERN SECTIONS OF THE US. MID LVLS WILL DRY
SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE STATE. THIS
BOUNDARY DOES NOT PUSH INTO AREA UNTIL FRIDAY. WILL KEEP EVE POPS
WED NIGHT AND FOLLOW GUIDANCE OF SLIGHTLY LOWER PCPN CHCS (NEAR
CLIMO) ON THURSDAY. FRONTAL FEATURE WITH DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW LATE
FRIDAY BUT FLOW WILL VEER QUICKLY ONSHORE AND INCREASE AS STRONG
RIDGE BUILDS ALONG THE MID ATLC COAST.
PREV DISC...
SAT-MON...WRN ATLC H50 TROUGH WILL SWEEP QUICKLY EWD THIS
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH A GENERAL CYCLONIC MID/UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL
PERSISTS OVER THE ERN CONUS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. FAIRLY STOUT
ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER ECFL WITH MUCH LOWER RAIN CHANCES SAT
(15-20) ALONG WITH ABSENCE OF TS. IT APPEARS THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
MEAN DRY AIR WORKING INTO ECFL TO ALLOW FOR A DRY FORECAST OVER LAND
SUN-MON...THOUGH A STRAY ATLC SHOWER COULD REACH THE COAST.
TEMPS WILL FALL BACK TO NEAR CLIMO NORMS OF L-M80S ALONG THE COAST
AND U80S INLAND. MINS IN THE U60S INLAND TO L70S ALONG THE COAST.
&&
.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR. EXPECT EARLIER END TO CONVECTION THIS EVENING THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS. BUT SHRA/TSRA REDEVELOPING JUST OFFSHORE MAY AFFECT
MLB-SUA OVERNIGHT. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE INTRR TERMINALS
&&
.MARINE...
TONIGHT/WED...WEAKENING ATLC RIDGE WILL SLACKEN THE PRES GRAD
ACROSS THE WATERS SO SE WINDS WILL DECREASE TO 5-10 KNOTS LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY WED...THEN E/SE AROUND 10 KNOTS WED AFTN. PERSISTENT
E/NE SWELL WILL KEEP SEAS A LITTLE HIGHER...3-4 FEET...THAN WHAT
WOULD BE EXPECTED IN SUCH WIND FLOW.
POST FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON SATURDAY...PRESS GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
DRAMATICALLY WITH A STRONG E FLOW. SCA LIKELY TO DEVELOP BY LATE
SATURDAY AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 68 84 67 86 / 30 40 30 30
MCO 68 88 68 90 / 30 50 30 30
MLB 70 85 69 87 / 40 50 30 30
VRB 68 86 69 86 / 40 50 30 30
LEE 68 88 69 89 / 30 50 30 30
SFB 69 89 69 91 / 30 50 30 30
ORL 70 88 70 90 / 30 50 30 30
FPR 68 86 68 87 / 40 50 30 30
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KELLY
IMPACT WX/RADAR...BLOTTMAN
| 
