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000
FXUS62 KMLB 211920
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
320 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT-TONIGHT...A FEW SHOWERS HAVE FORMED WELL WEST OF
INTERSTATE 95 FROM NORTH BREVARD TO SOUTHEAST OSCEOLA COUNTY SHORTLY
AFTER THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE PUSHED THROUGH...LIFTED THE LOWER
LEVEL AIR MASSES AND TRIGGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS.

EAST COAST SEA BREEZE HAS PUSHED WELL WEST OF INTERSTATE 95 AND
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INLAND THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND THE
EVENING BEFORE LOSING ITS IDENTITY...DISSIPATES AND THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW SHIFTS BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST. MID LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA REGION TRACKS
EAST. THE SUBSIDING MID LEVEL AIR MASS LIMITS RAIN CHANCES TO 15
PERCENT OR LESS TONIGHT.

ANOTHER WARM MUGGY NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER
80S...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES APPROACHING 100 PERCENT AND LIGHT
WINDS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THU-SUN...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD EASTWARD AND
STRENGTHEN THROUGH SUN THEN BEGINS A SLOW WEAKEN TREND. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SOUTH OF CENTRAL FLORIDA AND SANDWICHED
BETWEEN SURFACE TROUGHING AND THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER
THE SOUTHEAST AND THE NORTH GULF COAST. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN LOW AT
20 PERCENT OR LESS AND AFTERNOON HIGHS AT LEAST TWO/2 TO THREE/3
DEGREES HIGHER THAN THEIR CLIMATE HIGHS OF THE LOWER 90S.


PREVIOUS ZONES DISCUSSION
NEXT WEEK...LTST GUID CONTINUES BIAS TOWARD AN EAST TRACK OF
CURRENT INVEST AREA 96 WHICH WOULD MOVE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM WELL
EAST OF THE AREA. AN INCREASE IN ONSHORE FLOW IS INDICATED TUE
THROUGH MIDWEEK...ENOUGH TO AFFECT THE COAST AND INLAND WITH
MARINE BASED SH/TS. WILL CONTINUE SCENARIO OF SCT RAIN CHCS CLOSER
IN LINE TO CLIMO.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR.
WHILE A THERE WILL BE A FEW MORE STORMS THAN YESTERDAY...COVERAGE
WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ALONG
AND INLAND OF THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH
STRONGER STORMS POSSIBLE INLAND OF TREASURE COAST AND LATER IN THE
DAY WEST OF KMCO. TEMPO IFR/MVFR CONDS WILL OCCUR WITH ANY OF THIS
ACTIVITY...BUT FOR NOW RAIN CHANCES REMAIN LOW ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE
VCTS OR TEMPO GROUPS IN THE TAFS.

&&

.MARINE...

CURRENT-TONIGHT...NOAA BUOYS AND CMAN SITES WERE RECORDING EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS AT THE COAST AND A FEW MILES OFF THE
BEACHES. THE NOAA BUOY AT 120 NM OFFSHORE WAS RECORDING WESTERLY
WINDS AROUND 5 KNOTS. BOTH THE NEARSHORE SCRIPPS AND NOAA BUOYS
WERE RECORDING 1 TO 2 FEET SEAS. SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS STUCK OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL FLORIDA RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS WITH A SEA BREEZE
COMPONENT EACH DAY.

PREVIOUS MARINE DISCUSSION

FRI-MON...FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH S-SW WINDS 10KTS IN THE NIGHTS AND
MORNINGS...TURNING ONSHORE NEAR THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOONS WITH
DEVELOPMENT OF A SEA BREEZE. SEAS AROUND 2 FT WITH UP TO 3 FEET
OFFSHORE AT TIMES. SEA BREEZES WILL LEAD TO SOME WIND CHOP NEAR
THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOONS.

RAIN CHANCES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL INTO SAT WITH STEERING FLOW
FAVORING THE INTERIOR PENINSULA RATHER THAN OFFSHORE MOVING STORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  76  95  76  96 /  10  20   0  20
MCO  76  97  76  97 /  10  30  10  30
MLB  76  93  75  93 /  10  20  10  20
VRB  73  92  74  92 /  10  20  10  20
LEE  78  97  79  97 /  20  30  10  30
SFB  78  97  78  98 /  10  30   0  30
ORL  79  97  79  98 /  10  30  10  30
FPR  73  91  72  92 /  10  20  10  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

IMPACT WX...MOSES
FORECASTS...WIMMER





000
FXUS62 KMLB 211920
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
320 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT-TONIGHT...A FEW SHOWERS HAVE FORMED WELL WEST OF
INTERSTATE 95 FROM NORTH BREVARD TO SOUTHEAST OSCEOLA COUNTY SHORTLY
AFTER THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE PUSHED THROUGH...LIFTED THE LOWER
LEVEL AIR MASSES AND TRIGGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS.

EAST COAST SEA BREEZE HAS PUSHED WELL WEST OF INTERSTATE 95 AND
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INLAND THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND THE
EVENING BEFORE LOSING ITS IDENTITY...DISSIPATES AND THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW SHIFTS BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST. MID LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA REGION TRACKS
EAST. THE SUBSIDING MID LEVEL AIR MASS LIMITS RAIN CHANCES TO 15
PERCENT OR LESS TONIGHT.

ANOTHER WARM MUGGY NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER
80S...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES APPROACHING 100 PERCENT AND LIGHT
WINDS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THU-SUN...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD EASTWARD AND
STRENGTHEN THROUGH SUN THEN BEGINS A SLOW WEAKEN TREND. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SOUTH OF CENTRAL FLORIDA AND SANDWICHED
BETWEEN SURFACE TROUGHING AND THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER
THE SOUTHEAST AND THE NORTH GULF COAST. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN LOW AT
20 PERCENT OR LESS AND AFTERNOON HIGHS AT LEAST TWO/2 TO THREE/3
DEGREES HIGHER THAN THEIR CLIMATE HIGHS OF THE LOWER 90S.


PREVIOUS ZONES DISCUSSION
NEXT WEEK...LTST GUID CONTINUES BIAS TOWARD AN EAST TRACK OF
CURRENT INVEST AREA 96 WHICH WOULD MOVE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM WELL
EAST OF THE AREA. AN INCREASE IN ONSHORE FLOW IS INDICATED TUE
THROUGH MIDWEEK...ENOUGH TO AFFECT THE COAST AND INLAND WITH
MARINE BASED SH/TS. WILL CONTINUE SCENARIO OF SCT RAIN CHCS CLOSER
IN LINE TO CLIMO.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR.
WHILE A THERE WILL BE A FEW MORE STORMS THAN YESTERDAY...COVERAGE
WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ALONG
AND INLAND OF THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH
STRONGER STORMS POSSIBLE INLAND OF TREASURE COAST AND LATER IN THE
DAY WEST OF KMCO. TEMPO IFR/MVFR CONDS WILL OCCUR WITH ANY OF THIS
ACTIVITY...BUT FOR NOW RAIN CHANCES REMAIN LOW ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE
VCTS OR TEMPO GROUPS IN THE TAFS.

&&

.MARINE...

CURRENT-TONIGHT...NOAA BUOYS AND CMAN SITES WERE RECORDING EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS AT THE COAST AND A FEW MILES OFF THE
BEACHES. THE NOAA BUOY AT 120 NM OFFSHORE WAS RECORDING WESTERLY
WINDS AROUND 5 KNOTS. BOTH THE NEARSHORE SCRIPPS AND NOAA BUOYS
WERE RECORDING 1 TO 2 FEET SEAS. SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS STUCK OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL FLORIDA RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS WITH A SEA BREEZE
COMPONENT EACH DAY.

PREVIOUS MARINE DISCUSSION

FRI-MON...FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH S-SW WINDS 10KTS IN THE NIGHTS AND
MORNINGS...TURNING ONSHORE NEAR THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOONS WITH
DEVELOPMENT OF A SEA BREEZE. SEAS AROUND 2 FT WITH UP TO 3 FEET
OFFSHORE AT TIMES. SEA BREEZES WILL LEAD TO SOME WIND CHOP NEAR
THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOONS.

RAIN CHANCES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL INTO SAT WITH STEERING FLOW
FAVORING THE INTERIOR PENINSULA RATHER THAN OFFSHORE MOVING STORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  76  95  76  96 /  10  20   0  20
MCO  76  97  76  97 /  10  30  10  30
MLB  76  93  75  93 /  10  20  10  20
VRB  73  92  74  92 /  10  20  10  20
LEE  78  97  79  97 /  20  30  10  30
SFB  78  97  78  98 /  10  30   0  30
ORL  79  97  79  98 /  10  30  10  30
FPR  73  91  72  92 /  10  20  10  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

IMPACT WX...MOSES
FORECASTS...WIMMER






000
FXUS62 KMLB 211317
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
915 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
...HOT TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND...

CURRENT-THIS AFTERNOON...MSAS SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS BETWEEN ORLANDO AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE/THE SOUTH HALF OF EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE LATEST RUC40 FORECASTS SHOW THAT THE RIDGE
MOVES LITTLE DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA WAS NOT VERY STRONG. THE WEAKER PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES TO FORM ON BOTH COAST AND
PUSH INLAND. CURRENT FORECAST OF ISOLATED EARLY AFTERNOON COASTAL
SHOWERS AND STORMS TRANSITIONING INLAND AND BECOMING SCATTERED
ORLANDO SANFORD WEST LATE AFTERNOON STILL GOOD.

NORTHERLY STEERING WINDS...5000-15000 FEET...SHOULD PUSH STORMS TO
THE SOUTH.

TAKING A HARD LOOK AT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT GRIDS FOR
APPARENT TEMPERATURE/HEAT INDICES.

PREVIOUS ZONES DISCUSSION
TODAY/TONIGHT...MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT WEST INTO THE NORTHERN
GULF AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION TODAY. WITH LESS
SUPPRESSION ALOFT AND MODELS INDICATING A SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE...SHOULD SEE MORE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER COVERAGE WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL. WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL ALLOW EAST COAST SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP NEAR TO JUST AFTER NOON
AND MOVE INLAND WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS FORMING ALONG AND
INLAND OF THIS BOUNDARY. SLIGHTLY GREATER STORM COVERAGE AND
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS WILL OCCUR INLAND OF THE TREASURE COAST
BY MID AFTERNOON AND ALSO WEST OF ORLANDO LATE IN THE DAY WHERE
BOUNDARY COLLISIONS ARE FAVORED.

WITH LOWER THAN NORMAL STORM COVERAGE CONTINUING...ANOTHER HOT DAY
IS IN STORE ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO MOS
GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS...WHICH HAS DONE FAIRLY WELL OVER THE PAST FEW
DAYS. MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW 90S ALONG THE
COAST...REACHING UP TO 94-97 DEGREES WEST OF I-95. HOWEVER A FEW
SPOTS THAT SEE ANY EARLIER STORM DEVELOPMENT AND INCREASED DEBRIS
CLOUD COVER MAY NOT QUITE REACH AS HIGH AS FORECAST. HEAT INDEX
VALUES WILL NEAR 105 OVER MANY AREAS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THIS IS
STILL NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR ANY HEAT ADVISORIES WHICH ARE ISSUED FOR
HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 108 OR HIGHER.

LINGERING STORM OR TWO POSSIBLE OVER LAKE COUNTY AFTER SUNSET.
OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY
CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE MID-UPPER 70S MOST LOCATIONS.

THU-SAT...UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS WITH BELOW NORMAL RAIN
CHANCES CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
INITIALLY WEST OF THE AREA BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE MS VALLEY.
TAIL END OF A SHORTWAVE AXIS MOVES INTO THE STATE FRI AND INTO SAT.
WL KEEP POPS CHCS ON THE LOWER SIDE WITH COVERAGE FAVORING THE
INTERIOR AND FAR WEST AS STEERING FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTH-
NORTHEAST. ONSHORE FLOW APPEARS TOO LIGHT FOR NIGHT TIME COASTAL
SHOWERS AS WELL. TEMPS WL REMAIN QUITE WARM WITH MID 90S EACH
AFTERNOON EXCEPT FOR THE BEACHES AND MID TO UPPER 70S OVERNIGHT.

NEXT WEEK...LTST GUID CONTINUES BIAS TOWARD AN EAST TRACK OF
CURRENT INVEST AREA 96 WHICH WOULD MOVE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM WELL
EAST OF THE AREA. AN INCREASE IN ONSHORE FLOW IS INDICATED TUE
THROUGH MIDWEEK...ENOUGH TO AFFECT THE COAST AND INLAND WITH
MARINE BASED SH/TS. WILL CONTINUE SCENARIO OF SCT RAIN CHCS CLOSER
IN LINE TO CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR TIL 18Z. WHILE A THERE WILL BE A FEW MORE STORMS THAN
YESTERDAY...COVERAGE WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. ISOLATED CONVECTION
WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND INLAND OF THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE INTO THE
AFTERNOON WITH STRONGER STORMS POSSIBLE INLAND OF TREASURE COAST AND
LATER IN THE DAY WEST OF KMCO. TEMPO IFR/MVFR CONDS WILL OCCUR WITH
ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY...BUT FOR NOW RAIN CHANCES REMAIN LOW ENOUGH TO
PRECLUDE VCTS OR TEMPO GROUPS IN THE TAFS.

&&

.MARINE...

CURRENT-THIS AFTERNOON...NOAA BUOYS AND CMAN SITES RECORDING
WESTERLY WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS AND 1 FOOT SEAS OUT TO 20NM AND 2 FEET
AT 120NM. NEARSHORE WINDS WILL BECOME ONSHORE/SOUTHEAST TO EAST
EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZES FORM AND PUSH
WESTWARD. A FEW STORMS WELL EAST OF LAND OVER THE GULF STREAM AND
AWAY FROM THE COAST FOR INLAND LAKES AND RIVERS. STORM MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO BE NORTH TO SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

PREVIOUS MARINE ZONES DISCUSSION
TODAY/TONIGHT...FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED. RELATIVELY
LIGHT S/SW FLOW THIS MORNING WILL BECOME E/SE NEAR THE COAST AND
INCREASE SLIGHTLY AS SEA BREEZE FORMS AND MOVES INLAND. WINDS WILL
THEN RETURN OUT OF THE S/SW INTO TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN
BELOW 15 KNOTS WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 1-2 FEET.

FRI-MON...FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH S-SW WINDS 10KTS IN THE NIGHTS AND
MORNINGS...TURNING ONSHORE NEAR THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOONS WITH
DEVELOPMENT OF A SEA BREEZE. SEAS AROUND 2 FT WITH UP TO 3 FEET
OFFSHORE AT TIMES. SEA BREEZES WILL LEAD TO SOME WIND CHOP NEAR
THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOONS.

RAIN CHANCES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL INTO SAT WITH STEERING FLOW
FAVORING THE INTERIOR PENINSULA RATHER THAN OFFSHORE MOVING STORMS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FORECAST HIGHS STILL JUST OUT OF REACH OF RECORDS BY 2-4 DEGREES
THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AND INTO SATURDAY.

RECORD HIGHS:

                   8/21          8/22          8/23
DAYTONA BEACH    96 (1941)     97 (1980)     96 (1988)
ORLANDO          99 (1925)    100 (1980)     99 (1915)
MELBOURNE        96 (2012)     96 (1993)     95 (1960)
VERO BEACH       97 (1993)     95 (1993)     96 (1980)

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  94  76  95  76 /  20  10  20  10
MCO  97  76  96  76 /  20  10  30  10
MLB  93  76  92  75 /  20  10  20  10
VRB  92  75  92  74 /  20  10  20  10
LEE  97  77  96  79 /  30  20  30  10
SFB  97  78  96  78 /  20  10  30  10
ORL  97  78  96  79 /  20  10  30  10
FPR  92  74  91  73 /  20  10  20  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

IMPACT WX...VOLKMER
FORECASTS...WIMMER







000
FXUS62 KMLB 210739
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
339 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
...HOT TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND...

TODAY/TONIGHT...MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT WEST INTO THE NORTHERN
GULF AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION TODAY. WITH LESS
SUPPRESSION ALOFT AND MODELS INDICATING A SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE...SHOULD SEE MORE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER COVERAGE WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL. WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL ALLOW EAST COAST SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP NEAR TO JUST AFTER NOON
AND MOVE INLAND WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS FORMING ALONG AND
INLAND OF THIS BOUNDARY. SLIGHTLY GREATER STORM COVERAGE AND
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS WILL OCCUR INLAND OF THE TREASURE COAST
BY MID AFTERNOON AND ALSO WEST OF ORLANDO LATE IN THE DAY WHERE
BOUNDARY COLLISIONS ARE FAVORED.

WITH LOWER THAN NORMAL STORM COVERAGE CONTINUING...ANOTHER HOT DAY
IS IN STORE ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO MOS
GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS...WHICH HAS DONE FAIRLY WELL OVER THE PAST FEW
DAYS. MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW 90S ALONG THE
COAST...REACHING UP TO 94-97 DEGREES WEST OF I-95. HOWEVER A FEW
SPOTS THAT SEE ANY EARLIER STORM DEVELOPMENT AND INCREASED DEBRIS
CLOUD COVER MAY NOT QUITE REACH AS HIGH AS FORECAST. HEAT INDEX
VALUES WILL NEAR 105 OVER MANY AREAS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THIS IS
STILL NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR ANY HEAT ADVISORIES WHICH ARE ISSUED FOR
HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 108 OR HIGHER.

LINGERING STORM OR TWO POSSIBLE OVER LAKE COUNTY AFTER SUNSET.
OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY
CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE MID-UPPER 70S MOST LOCATIONS.

THU-SAT...UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS WITH BELOW NORMAL RAIN
CHANCES CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
INITIALLY WEST OF THE AREA BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE MS VALLEY.
TAIL END OF A SHORTWAVE AXIS MOVES INTO THE STATE FRI AND INTO SAT.
WL KEEP POPS CHCS ON THE LOWER SIDE WITH COVERAGE FAVORING THE
INTERIOR AND FAR WEST AS STEERING FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTH-
NORTHEAST. ONSHORE FLOW APPEARS TOO LIGHT FOR NIGHT TIME COASTAL
SHOWERS AS WELL. TEMPS WL REMAIN QUITE WARM WITH MID 90S EACH
AFTERNOON EXCEPT FOR THE BEACHES AND MID TO UPPER 70S OVERNIGHT.

NEXT WEEK...LTST GUID CONTINUES BIAS TOWARD AN EAST TRACK OF
CURRENT INVEST AREA 96 WHICH WOULD MOVE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM WELL
EAST OF THE AREA. AN INCREASE IN ONSHORE FLOW IS INDICATED TUE
THROUGH MIDWEEK...ENOUGH TO AFFECT THE COAST AND INLAND WITH
MARINE BASED SH/TS. WILL CONTINUE SCENARIO OF SCT RAIN CHCS CLOSER
IN LINE TO CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR. WHILE A THERE WILL BE A FEW MORE STORMS THAN
YESTERDAY...COVERAGE WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. ISOLATED CONVECTION
WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND INLAND OF THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE INTO THE
AFTERNOON WITH STRONGER STORMS POSSIBLE INLAND OF TREASURE COAST AND
LATER IN THE DAY WEST OF KMCO. TEMPO IFR/MVFR CONDS WILL OCCUR WITH
ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY...BUT FOR NOW RAIN CHANCES REMAIN LOW ENOUGH TO
PRECLUDE VCTS OR TEMPO GROUPS IN THE TAFS.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY/TONIGHT...FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED. RELATIVELY
LIGHT S/SW FLOW THIS MORNING WILL BECOME E/SE NEAR THE COAST AND
INCREASE SLIGHTLY AS SEA BREEZE FORMS AND MOVES INLAND. WINDS WILL
THEN RETURN OUT OF THE S/SW INTO TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN
BELOW 15 KNOTS WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 1-2 FEET.

FRI-MON...FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH S-SW WINDS 10KTS IN THE NIGHTS AND
MORNINGS...TURNING ONSHORE NEAR THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOONS WITH
DEVELOPMENT OF A SEA BREEZE. SEAS AROUND 2 FT WITH UP TO 3 FEET
OFFSHORE AT TIMES. SEA BREEZES WILL LEAD TO SOME WIND CHOP NEAR
THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOONS.

RAIN CHANCES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL INTO SAT WITH STEERING FLOW
FAVORING THE INTERIOR PENINSULA RATHER THAN OFFSHORE MOVING STORMS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FORECAST HIGHS STILL JUST OUT OF REACH OF RECORDS BY 2-4 DEGREES
THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AND INTO SATURDAY.

RECORD HIGHS:

                   8/21          8/22          8/23
DAYTONA BEACH    96 (1941)     97 (1980)     96 (1988)
ORLANDO          99 (1925)    100 (1980)     99 (1915)
MELBOURNE        96 (2012)     96 (1993)     95 (1960)
VERO BEACH       97 (1993)     95 (1993)     96 (1980)

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  94  76  95  76 /  20  10  20  10
MCO  97  76  96  76 /  20  10  30  10
MLB  93  76  92  75 /  20  10  20  10
VRB  92  75  92  74 /  20  10  20  10
LEE  97  77  96  79 /  30  20  30  10
SFB  97  78  96  78 /  20  10  30  10
ORL  97  78  96  79 /  20  10  30  10
FPR  92  74  91  73 /  20  10  20  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WEITLICH
LONG TERM....PENDERGRAST






000
FXUS62 KMLB 210013
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
815 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT-OVERNIGHT...ANOTHER WARM NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID AND
UPPER 70S ON LAND AND THE UPPER 70S AT THE BEACHES FROM COCOA BEACH
SOUTH. IT WILL BE MUGGY WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AND
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS TOWARD SUNRISE THURSDAY.

THURSDAY LOOKING TO ANOTHER WARM/HOT DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 90S
AND SOME UPPER 90S IN THE USUALLY HOTTER LOCATIONS. SEA BREEZES IN
THE AFTERNOON SLOW DOWN THE TEMPERATURE INCREASE AT THE COAST WITH
THEIR HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S. DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW AND MID
70S WILL PUSH THE APPARENT TEMPERATURES/HEAT INDICES TO THE 105 TO
107 DEGREE RANGE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

FORECAST FOR OVERNIGHT IS GOOD. DEW POINTS FOR THURSDAY LATE MORNING
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON LOOKED A DEGREE OR TWO HIGH WHEN COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS DAYS. THE EVENING UPDATE ISSUED FOR THURSDAY NUDGED DEW
POINTS DOWN ONE TO TWO DEGREES TO MAKE THEM MORE IN LINE WITH THE
LATEST LAMP GUIDANCE.

PREVIOUS ZONES DISCUSSIONS
THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...WITH PREVAILING FLOW A LITTLE MORE
NORTHWESTERLY THAN WEST-SOUTHWEST THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE HAS BEEN
ABLE TO DEVELOP AND PUSH INLAND A LITTLE MORE QUICKLY THAN PREVIOUS
DAYS...CURRENTLY INTO ABOUT I-95 FROM THE CAPE SOUTHWARDS. AS
EXPECTED...THE MAIN FOCUS FOR ANY DEVELOPMENT SO FAR TODAY HAS BEEN
JUST INLAND ACROSS THE TREASURE COAST WHERE THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE IS INTERACTING WITH THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE BREEZE. SO FAR JUST A
FEW SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP ALONG THE SEA BREEZE...BUT ISOLATED
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS IT MOVES INLAND TO THE LAKE INTO THE
AFTERNOON. STEERING FLOW IS NEARLY NON-EXISTENT IS THIS AREA...AND
MOST ACTIVITY WILL TEND TO MOVE WITH THE SEA BREEZE AND DRIFT
SOUTHEAST THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.

FURTHER NORTH...FAR MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ALONG THE WEST
COAST SEA BREEZE MOVING INTO LAKE COUNTY CURRENTLY. A STORM OR TWO
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE
SEA BREEZES. MOST ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET...THOUGH A
FEW STORMS MAY CREEP INTO NORTH LAKE/VOLUSIA AROUND SUNSET AS THE
STEERING FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHWEST.

SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER
70S.

THU-SAT...BELOW NORMAL RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES WEST AND BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
TO EASTERN GULF AS ANOTHER TROUGH DIGS OFF THE EAST COAST. MODELS
SHOWING A VERY WEAK MOISTURE RIBBON SLIDING INTO THE STATE THURS AND
FRI AS THE TAIL END OF THE SHORTWAVE AXIS MOVES INTO THE STATE. HAVE
KEPT POPS TO 20 PERCENT COAST/30 PERCENT INTERIOR FOR ALL THREE DAYS
WITH COVERAGE FAVORING THE INTERIOR AND WEST PENINSULA AS STEERING
FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE IS
ABOVE TO MOVE FURTHER INLAND. ONSHORE FLOW APPEARS TOO LIGHT FOR
NIGHT TIME COASTAL SHOWERS AS WELL. TEMPS WL REMAIN QUITE WARM WITH
MID 90S EACH AFTERNOON EXCEPT FOR THE BEACHES AND MID TO UPPER 70S
OVERNIGHT.

NEXT WEEK...UPR RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO NRN GULF IS FORECAST TO
AMPLIFY NWD OVER THE TN/OH VALLEYS EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SUBTLE INCREASE
IN ONSHORE FLOW IS INDICATED WITH POSSIBLY STRONGER MANIFESTATION OF
AN ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD HGHT FALLS ACROSS CARIB REGION OCCUR WITH
DEVELOPMENT OF INVEST AREA 96. CURRENT MODEL RUNS SUGGEST THAT THERE
WILL BE AN INCREASE IN POPS TOWARDS MID WEEK AS THE MOVEMENT OF THIS
FEATURE BRINGS TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE STATE. WILL GO WITH SCT
RAIN CHCS CLOSER IN LINE TO CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION...

CURRENT-OVERNIGHT...VFR WITH THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED
WITH ISOLATED STORMS SOUTHERN AREAS DISSIPATING BY MIDNIGHT AND
SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR.

PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION
PREVAILING VFR CONDS. DRY AIRMASS KEEPS CONVECTION VERY ISOLATED
THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW TSRA VCNTY KVRB-KSUA AND KLEE AND KDAB THROUGH
23Z. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN LOW INTO THURS WITH WDLY SCT ACTIVITY
MAINLY AFFECTING INLAND TAF SITES AFTER 19Z WITH FURTHER INLAND
PENETRATION OF THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE.

&&

.MARINE...

CURRENT-OVERNIGHT...NEARSHORE BUOYS AND CMAN SITES RECORDING
EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS AND 1 FOOT SEAS. BUOY 010 AT 120NM
OFFSHORE WAS RECORDING WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 5 KNOTS AND 2 FOOT SEAS.

SEA BREEZES STOP DURING THE EVENING AND THE WINDS SHIFT BACK TO THE
WEST LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. STORMS OVER THE GULF STREAM.

PREVIOUS MARINE DISCUSSION
TONIGHT-THURSDAY...GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW THIS AFTERNOON
WITH E-SE WINDS 10KTS NEAR THE COAST DUE TO THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE. FLOW BECOMING S-SW 10-15KTS OVERNIGHT WITH SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT SHIFTING WINDS ONSHORE AGAIN THURS AFTERNOON. SEAS 1-2
FEET WITH UP TO 3 FT WELL OFFSHORE.

FRI-SUN...FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH S-SW WINDS 10KTS IN THE NIGHTS AND MORNING...TURNING
ONSHORE NEAR THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOONS WITH THE SEA BREEZE. SEAS
AROUND 2 FT WITH UP TO 3 FEET OFFSHORE AT TIMES. SEA BREEZES WILL
LEAD TO SOME WIND CHOP NEAR THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOONS.

RAIN CHANCES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL INTO SAT WITH STEERING FLOW
FAVORING THE INTERIOR PENINSULA RATHER THAN OFFSHORE MOVING STORMS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FORECAST HIGHS STILL JUST OUT OF REACH OF RECORDS BY 2-4 DEGREES
THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.

RECORD HIGHS:

                   8/20          8/21          8/22
DAYTONA BEACH    97 (1938)     96 (1941)     97 (1980)
ORLANDO         100 (1921)     99 (1925)    100 (1980)
MELBOURNE        96 (1993)     96 (2012)     96 (1993)
VERO BEACH       95 (2005)     97 (1993)     95 (1993)

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  75  95  75  95 /  20  10  10  20
MCO  76  97  76  96 /  10  20  10  30
MLB  76  93  76  93 /  10  10  10  20
VRB  74  93  75  91 /  10  10  10  20
LEE  77  97  78  97 /  10  30  20  30
SFB  77  98  78  97 /  10  20  10  30
ORL  78  98  79  96 /  10  20  10  30
FPR  75  92  74  91 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

IMPACT WX...SHARP
FORECASTS...WIMMER






000
FXUS62 KMLB 210013
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
815 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT-OVERNIGHT...ANOTHER WARM NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID AND
UPPER 70S ON LAND AND THE UPPER 70S AT THE BEACHES FROM COCOA BEACH
SOUTH. IT WILL BE MUGGY WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AND
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS TOWARD SUNRISE THURSDAY.

THURSDAY LOOKING TO ANOTHER WARM/HOT DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 90S
AND SOME UPPER 90S IN THE USUALLY HOTTER LOCATIONS. SEA BREEZES IN
THE AFTERNOON SLOW DOWN THE TEMPERATURE INCREASE AT THE COAST WITH
THEIR HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S. DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW AND MID
70S WILL PUSH THE APPARENT TEMPERATURES/HEAT INDICES TO THE 105 TO
107 DEGREE RANGE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

FORECAST FOR OVERNIGHT IS GOOD. DEW POINTS FOR THURSDAY LATE MORNING
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON LOOKED A DEGREE OR TWO HIGH WHEN COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS DAYS. THE EVENING UPDATE ISSUED FOR THURSDAY NUDGED DEW
POINTS DOWN ONE TO TWO DEGREES TO MAKE THEM MORE IN LINE WITH THE
LATEST LAMP GUIDANCE.

PREVIOUS ZONES DISCUSSIONS
THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...WITH PREVAILING FLOW A LITTLE MORE
NORTHWESTERLY THAN WEST-SOUTHWEST THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE HAS BEEN
ABLE TO DEVELOP AND PUSH INLAND A LITTLE MORE QUICKLY THAN PREVIOUS
DAYS...CURRENTLY INTO ABOUT I-95 FROM THE CAPE SOUTHWARDS. AS
EXPECTED...THE MAIN FOCUS FOR ANY DEVELOPMENT SO FAR TODAY HAS BEEN
JUST INLAND ACROSS THE TREASURE COAST WHERE THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE IS INTERACTING WITH THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE BREEZE. SO FAR JUST A
FEW SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP ALONG THE SEA BREEZE...BUT ISOLATED
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS IT MOVES INLAND TO THE LAKE INTO THE
AFTERNOON. STEERING FLOW IS NEARLY NON-EXISTENT IS THIS AREA...AND
MOST ACTIVITY WILL TEND TO MOVE WITH THE SEA BREEZE AND DRIFT
SOUTHEAST THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.

FURTHER NORTH...FAR MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ALONG THE WEST
COAST SEA BREEZE MOVING INTO LAKE COUNTY CURRENTLY. A STORM OR TWO
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE
SEA BREEZES. MOST ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET...THOUGH A
FEW STORMS MAY CREEP INTO NORTH LAKE/VOLUSIA AROUND SUNSET AS THE
STEERING FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHWEST.

SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER
70S.

THU-SAT...BELOW NORMAL RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES WEST AND BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
TO EASTERN GULF AS ANOTHER TROUGH DIGS OFF THE EAST COAST. MODELS
SHOWING A VERY WEAK MOISTURE RIBBON SLIDING INTO THE STATE THURS AND
FRI AS THE TAIL END OF THE SHORTWAVE AXIS MOVES INTO THE STATE. HAVE
KEPT POPS TO 20 PERCENT COAST/30 PERCENT INTERIOR FOR ALL THREE DAYS
WITH COVERAGE FAVORING THE INTERIOR AND WEST PENINSULA AS STEERING
FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE IS
ABOVE TO MOVE FURTHER INLAND. ONSHORE FLOW APPEARS TOO LIGHT FOR
NIGHT TIME COASTAL SHOWERS AS WELL. TEMPS WL REMAIN QUITE WARM WITH
MID 90S EACH AFTERNOON EXCEPT FOR THE BEACHES AND MID TO UPPER 70S
OVERNIGHT.

NEXT WEEK...UPR RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO NRN GULF IS FORECAST TO
AMPLIFY NWD OVER THE TN/OH VALLEYS EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SUBTLE INCREASE
IN ONSHORE FLOW IS INDICATED WITH POSSIBLY STRONGER MANIFESTATION OF
AN ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD HGHT FALLS ACROSS CARIB REGION OCCUR WITH
DEVELOPMENT OF INVEST AREA 96. CURRENT MODEL RUNS SUGGEST THAT THERE
WILL BE AN INCREASE IN POPS TOWARDS MID WEEK AS THE MOVEMENT OF THIS
FEATURE BRINGS TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE STATE. WILL GO WITH SCT
RAIN CHCS CLOSER IN LINE TO CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION...

CURRENT-OVERNIGHT...VFR WITH THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED
WITH ISOLATED STORMS SOUTHERN AREAS DISSIPATING BY MIDNIGHT AND
SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR.

PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION
PREVAILING VFR CONDS. DRY AIRMASS KEEPS CONVECTION VERY ISOLATED
THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW TSRA VCNTY KVRB-KSUA AND KLEE AND KDAB THROUGH
23Z. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN LOW INTO THURS WITH WDLY SCT ACTIVITY
MAINLY AFFECTING INLAND TAF SITES AFTER 19Z WITH FURTHER INLAND
PENETRATION OF THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE.

&&

.MARINE...

CURRENT-OVERNIGHT...NEARSHORE BUOYS AND CMAN SITES RECORDING
EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS AND 1 FOOT SEAS. BUOY 010 AT 120NM
OFFSHORE WAS RECORDING WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 5 KNOTS AND 2 FOOT SEAS.

SEA BREEZES STOP DURING THE EVENING AND THE WINDS SHIFT BACK TO THE
WEST LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. STORMS OVER THE GULF STREAM.

PREVIOUS MARINE DISCUSSION
TONIGHT-THURSDAY...GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW THIS AFTERNOON
WITH E-SE WINDS 10KTS NEAR THE COAST DUE TO THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE. FLOW BECOMING S-SW 10-15KTS OVERNIGHT WITH SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT SHIFTING WINDS ONSHORE AGAIN THURS AFTERNOON. SEAS 1-2
FEET WITH UP TO 3 FT WELL OFFSHORE.

FRI-SUN...FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH S-SW WINDS 10KTS IN THE NIGHTS AND MORNING...TURNING
ONSHORE NEAR THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOONS WITH THE SEA BREEZE. SEAS
AROUND 2 FT WITH UP TO 3 FEET OFFSHORE AT TIMES. SEA BREEZES WILL
LEAD TO SOME WIND CHOP NEAR THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOONS.

RAIN CHANCES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL INTO SAT WITH STEERING FLOW
FAVORING THE INTERIOR PENINSULA RATHER THAN OFFSHORE MOVING STORMS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FORECAST HIGHS STILL JUST OUT OF REACH OF RECORDS BY 2-4 DEGREES
THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.

RECORD HIGHS:

                   8/20          8/21          8/22
DAYTONA BEACH    97 (1938)     96 (1941)     97 (1980)
ORLANDO         100 (1921)     99 (1925)    100 (1980)
MELBOURNE        96 (1993)     96 (2012)     96 (1993)
VERO BEACH       95 (2005)     97 (1993)     95 (1993)

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  75  95  75  95 /  20  10  10  20
MCO  76  97  76  96 /  10  20  10  30
MLB  76  93  76  93 /  10  10  10  20
VRB  74  93  75  91 /  10  10  10  20
LEE  77  97  78  97 /  10  30  20  30
SFB  77  98  78  97 /  10  20  10  30
ORL  78  98  79  96 /  10  20  10  30
FPR  75  92  74  91 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

IMPACT WX...SHARP
FORECASTS...WIMMER







000
FXUS62 KMLB 201808
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
208 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...WITH PREVAILING FLOW A LITTLE MORE
NORTHWESTERLY THAN WEST-SOUTHWEST THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE HAS BEEN
ABLE TO DEVELOP AND PUSH INLAND A LITTLE MORE QUICKLY THAN PREVIOUS
DAYS...CURRENTLY INTO ABOUT I-95 FROM THE CAPE SOUTHWARDS. AS
EXPECTED...THE MAIN FOCUS FOR ANY DEVELOPMENT SO FAR TODAY HAS BEEN
JUST INLAND ACROSS THE TREASURE COAST WHERE THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE IS INTERACTING WITH THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE BREEZE. SO FAR JUST A
FEW SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP ALONG THE SEA BREEZE...BUT ISOLATED
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS IT MOVES INLAND TO THE LAKE INTO THE
AFTERNOON. STEERING FLOW IS NEARLY NON-EXISTENT IS THIS AREA...AND
MOST ACTIVITY WILL TEND TO MOVE WITH THE SEA BREEZE AND DRIFT
SOUTHEAST THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.

FURTHER NORTH...FAR MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ALONG THE WEST
COAST SEA BREEZE MOVING INTO LAKE COUNTY CURRENTLY. A STORM OR TWO
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE
SEA BREEZES. MOST ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET...THOUGH A
FEW STORMS MAY CREEP INTO NORTH LAKE/VOLUSIA AROUND SUNSET AS THE
STEERING FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHWEST.

SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER
70S.

THU-SAT...BELOW NORMAL RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES WEST AND BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
TO EASTERN GULF AS ANOTHER TROUGH DIGS OFF THE EAST COAST. MODELS
SHOWING A VERY WEAK MOISTURE RIBBON SLIDING INTO THE STATE THURS AND
FRI AS THE TAIL END OF THE SHORTWAVE AXIS MOVES INTO THE STATE. HAVE
KEPT POPS TO 20 PERCENT COAST/30 PERCENT INTERIOR FOR ALL THREE DAYS
WITH COVERAGE FAVORING THE INTERIOR AND WEST PENINSULA AS STEERING
FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE IS
ABOVE TO MOVE FURTHER INLAND. ONSHORE FLOW APPEARS TOO LIGHT FOR
NIGHT TIME COASTAL SHOWERS AS WELL. TEMPS WL REMAIN QUITE WARM WITH
MID 90S EACH AFTERNOON EXCEPT FOR THE BEACHES AND MID TO UPPER 70S
OVERNIGHT.

FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
NEXT WEEK...UPR RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO NRN GULF IS FORECAST TO
AMPLIFY NWD OVER THE TN/OH VALLEYS EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SUBTLE INCREASE
IN ONSHORE FLOW IS INDICATED WITH POSSIBLY STRONGER MANIFESTATION OF
AN ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD HGHT FALLS ACROSS CARIB REGION OCCUR WITH
DEVELOPMENT OF INVEST AREA 96. CURRENT MODEL RUNS SUGGEST THAT THERE
WILL BE AN INCREASE IN POPS TOWARDS MID WEEK AS THE MOVEMENT OF THIS
FEATURE BRINGS TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE STATE. WILL GO WITH SCT
RAIN CHCS CLOSER IN LINE TO CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION...
PREVAILING VFR CONDS. DRY AIRMASS KEEPS CONVECTION VERY ISOLATED
THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW TSRA VCNTY KVRB-KSUA AND KLEE AND KDAB THROUGH
23Z. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN LOW INTO THURS WITH WDLY SCT ACTIVITY
MAINLY AFFECTING INLAND TAF SITES AFTER 19Z WITH FURTHER INLAND
PENETRATION OF THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT-THURSDAY...GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW THIS AFTERNOON
WITH E-SE WINDS 10KTS NEAR THE COAST DUE TO THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE. FLOW BECOMING S-SW 10-15KTS OVERNIGHT WITH SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT SHIFTING WINDS ONSHORE AGAIN THURS AFTERNOON. SEAS 1-2
FEET WITH UP TO 3 FT WELL OFFSHORE.

FRI-SUN...FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH S-SW WINDS 10KTS IN THE NIGHTS AND MORNING...TURNING
ONSHORE NEAR THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOONS WITH THE SEA BREEZE. SEAS
AROUND 2 FT WITH UP TO 3 FEET OFFSHORE AT TIMES. SEA BREEZES WILL
LEAD TO SOME WIND CHOP NEAR THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOONS.

RAIN CHANCES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL INTO SAT WITH STEERING FLOW
FAVORING THE INTERIOR PENINSULA RATHER THAN OFFSHORE MOVING STORMS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FORECAST HIGHS STILL JUST OUT OF REACH OF RECORDS BY 2-4 DEGREES
THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.

RECORD HIGHS:

                   8/20          8/21          8/22
DAYTONA BEACH    97 (1938)     96 (1941)     97 (1980)
ORLANDO         100 (1921)     99 (1925)    100 (1980)
MELBOURNE        96 (1993)     96 (2012)     96 (1993)
VERO BEACH       95 (2005)     97 (1993)     95 (1993)

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  75  95  75  95 /  20  10  10  20
MCO  76  97  76  96 /  10  20  10  30
MLB  76  93  76  93 /  10  10  10  20
VRB  74  93  75  91 /  10  10  10  20
LEE  77  97  78  97 /  10  30  20  30
SFB  77  98  78  97 /  10  20  10  30
ORL  78  98  79  96 /  10  20  10  30
FPR  75  92  74  91 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...MOSES
RADAR/IMPACT WEATHER...VOLKMER
BACKUP OPERATIONS...BRAGAW/VOLKMER/BLOTTMAN







000
FXUS62 KMLB 201808
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
208 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...WITH PREVAILING FLOW A LITTLE MORE
NORTHWESTERLY THAN WEST-SOUTHWEST THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE HAS BEEN
ABLE TO DEVELOP AND PUSH INLAND A LITTLE MORE QUICKLY THAN PREVIOUS
DAYS...CURRENTLY INTO ABOUT I-95 FROM THE CAPE SOUTHWARDS. AS
EXPECTED...THE MAIN FOCUS FOR ANY DEVELOPMENT SO FAR TODAY HAS BEEN
JUST INLAND ACROSS THE TREASURE COAST WHERE THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE IS INTERACTING WITH THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE BREEZE. SO FAR JUST A
FEW SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP ALONG THE SEA BREEZE...BUT ISOLATED
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS IT MOVES INLAND TO THE LAKE INTO THE
AFTERNOON. STEERING FLOW IS NEARLY NON-EXISTENT IS THIS AREA...AND
MOST ACTIVITY WILL TEND TO MOVE WITH THE SEA BREEZE AND DRIFT
SOUTHEAST THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.

FURTHER NORTH...FAR MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ALONG THE WEST
COAST SEA BREEZE MOVING INTO LAKE COUNTY CURRENTLY. A STORM OR TWO
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE
SEA BREEZES. MOST ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET...THOUGH A
FEW STORMS MAY CREEP INTO NORTH LAKE/VOLUSIA AROUND SUNSET AS THE
STEERING FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHWEST.

SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER
70S.

THU-SAT...BELOW NORMAL RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES WEST AND BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
TO EASTERN GULF AS ANOTHER TROUGH DIGS OFF THE EAST COAST. MODELS
SHOWING A VERY WEAK MOISTURE RIBBON SLIDING INTO THE STATE THURS AND
FRI AS THE TAIL END OF THE SHORTWAVE AXIS MOVES INTO THE STATE. HAVE
KEPT POPS TO 20 PERCENT COAST/30 PERCENT INTERIOR FOR ALL THREE DAYS
WITH COVERAGE FAVORING THE INTERIOR AND WEST PENINSULA AS STEERING
FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE IS
ABOVE TO MOVE FURTHER INLAND. ONSHORE FLOW APPEARS TOO LIGHT FOR
NIGHT TIME COASTAL SHOWERS AS WELL. TEMPS WL REMAIN QUITE WARM WITH
MID 90S EACH AFTERNOON EXCEPT FOR THE BEACHES AND MID TO UPPER 70S
OVERNIGHT.

FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
NEXT WEEK...UPR RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO NRN GULF IS FORECAST TO
AMPLIFY NWD OVER THE TN/OH VALLEYS EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SUBTLE INCREASE
IN ONSHORE FLOW IS INDICATED WITH POSSIBLY STRONGER MANIFESTATION OF
AN ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD HGHT FALLS ACROSS CARIB REGION OCCUR WITH
DEVELOPMENT OF INVEST AREA 96. CURRENT MODEL RUNS SUGGEST THAT THERE
WILL BE AN INCREASE IN POPS TOWARDS MID WEEK AS THE MOVEMENT OF THIS
FEATURE BRINGS TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE STATE. WILL GO WITH SCT
RAIN CHCS CLOSER IN LINE TO CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION...
PREVAILING VFR CONDS. DRY AIRMASS KEEPS CONVECTION VERY ISOLATED
THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW TSRA VCNTY KVRB-KSUA AND KLEE AND KDAB THROUGH
23Z. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN LOW INTO THURS WITH WDLY SCT ACTIVITY
MAINLY AFFECTING INLAND TAF SITES AFTER 19Z WITH FURTHER INLAND
PENETRATION OF THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT-THURSDAY...GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW THIS AFTERNOON
WITH E-SE WINDS 10KTS NEAR THE COAST DUE TO THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE. FLOW BECOMING S-SW 10-15KTS OVERNIGHT WITH SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT SHIFTING WINDS ONSHORE AGAIN THURS AFTERNOON. SEAS 1-2
FEET WITH UP TO 3 FT WELL OFFSHORE.

FRI-SUN...FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH S-SW WINDS 10KTS IN THE NIGHTS AND MORNING...TURNING
ONSHORE NEAR THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOONS WITH THE SEA BREEZE. SEAS
AROUND 2 FT WITH UP TO 3 FEET OFFSHORE AT TIMES. SEA BREEZES WILL
LEAD TO SOME WIND CHOP NEAR THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOONS.

RAIN CHANCES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL INTO SAT WITH STEERING FLOW
FAVORING THE INTERIOR PENINSULA RATHER THAN OFFSHORE MOVING STORMS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FORECAST HIGHS STILL JUST OUT OF REACH OF RECORDS BY 2-4 DEGREES
THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.

RECORD HIGHS:

                   8/20          8/21          8/22
DAYTONA BEACH    97 (1938)     96 (1941)     97 (1980)
ORLANDO         100 (1921)     99 (1925)    100 (1980)
MELBOURNE        96 (1993)     96 (2012)     96 (1993)
VERO BEACH       95 (2005)     97 (1993)     95 (1993)

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  75  95  75  95 /  20  10  10  20
MCO  76  97  76  96 /  10  20  10  30
MLB  76  93  76  93 /  10  10  10  20
VRB  74  93  75  91 /  10  10  10  20
LEE  77  97  78  97 /  10  30  20  30
SFB  77  98  78  97 /  10  20  10  30
ORL  78  98  79  96 /  10  20  10  30
FPR  75  92  74  91 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...MOSES
RADAR/IMPACT WEATHER...VOLKMER
BACKUP OPERATIONS...BRAGAW/VOLKMER/BLOTTMAN








000
FXUS62 KMLB 201256
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
856 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND ANALYSIS STILL SHOWS THE THIN BAND
OF HIGHER MOISTURE SANDWICHED ACROSS THE TREASURE COAST/LAKE
OKEECHOBEE REGION WHILE A VERY DRY AIRMASS NOSES INTO THE WEST
CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST. THE DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINANT THE
LOCAL WEATHER TODAY WHICH ALONG WITH THE SUPPRESSION FROM THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP STORM COVERAGE WELL BELOW
NORMAL...STRUGGLING TO REACH 20%.

MODELS SHOW BEST CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE
TREASURE COAST AND OKEECHOBEE COUNTY WHERE COLLISIONS BETWEEN THE
LAKE OKEECHOBEE BREEZE AND EAST COAST SEA BREEZE OCCUR TOWARD MID
AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE SLIDING THROUGH NORTH FLORIDA LATER
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BRING A LITTLE BIT HIGHER BAND OF MOISTURE. A
SHIFT TO NW STEERING FLOW MAY BRING SOME ACTIVITY DEVELOPING FURTHER
NORTH INTO NORTH LAKE/VOLUSIA COUNTIES LATER IN THE AFTERNOON/TOWARD
SUNSET ESPECIALLY ALONG THE INLAND MOVING WEST COAST SEA BREEZE.

HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE MID 90S MOST AREAS...EXCEPT LOW 90S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST OF BREVARD COUNTY AND ALONG THE TREASURE COAST WHERE
THE SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE INLAND EARLIER IN THE
AFTERNOON. HEAT INDEX VALUES ACROSS THE REGION WILL ONCE AGAIN RANGE
FROM 100-105 FOR SEVERAL HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...
PREVAILING VFR CONDS. DRY AIRMASS KEEPS CONVECTION VERY ISOLATED
THIS AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE NEAR TO
WEST OF KVRB-KSUA TAF SITES TOWARD MID AFTERNOON AND TOWARD KDAB
NEAR SUNSET. HOWEVER RAIN CHANCES REMAIN LOW ENOUGH TO NOT ADD TEMPO
GROUPS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
W/SW FLOW 5-10KTS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME E/SE NEAR THE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON AS SEA BREEZE FORMS AND MOVES INLAND. WINDS WILL THEN
BECOME MORE UNIFORM OUT OF THE S/SW TONIGHT. SEAS 1-2 FEET.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FORECAST HIGHS STILL JUST OUT OF REACH OF RECORDS BY 2-4 DEGREES
THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.

RECORD HIGHS:

                   8/20          8/21          8/22
DAYTONA BEACH    97 (1938)     96 (1941)     97 (1980)
ORLANDO         100 (1921)     99 (1925)    100 (1980)
MELBOURNE        96 (1993)     96 (2012)     96 (1993)
VERO BEACH       95 (2005)     97 (1993)     95 (1993)

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

MOSES/VOLKMER









000
FXUS62 KMLB 201256
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
856 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND ANALYSIS STILL SHOWS THE THIN BAND
OF HIGHER MOISTURE SANDWICHED ACROSS THE TREASURE COAST/LAKE
OKEECHOBEE REGION WHILE A VERY DRY AIRMASS NOSES INTO THE WEST
CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST. THE DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINANT THE
LOCAL WEATHER TODAY WHICH ALONG WITH THE SUPPRESSION FROM THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP STORM COVERAGE WELL BELOW
NORMAL...STRUGGLING TO REACH 20%.

MODELS SHOW BEST CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE
TREASURE COAST AND OKEECHOBEE COUNTY WHERE COLLISIONS BETWEEN THE
LAKE OKEECHOBEE BREEZE AND EAST COAST SEA BREEZE OCCUR TOWARD MID
AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE SLIDING THROUGH NORTH FLORIDA LATER
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BRING A LITTLE BIT HIGHER BAND OF MOISTURE. A
SHIFT TO NW STEERING FLOW MAY BRING SOME ACTIVITY DEVELOPING FURTHER
NORTH INTO NORTH LAKE/VOLUSIA COUNTIES LATER IN THE AFTERNOON/TOWARD
SUNSET ESPECIALLY ALONG THE INLAND MOVING WEST COAST SEA BREEZE.

HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE MID 90S MOST AREAS...EXCEPT LOW 90S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST OF BREVARD COUNTY AND ALONG THE TREASURE COAST WHERE
THE SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE INLAND EARLIER IN THE
AFTERNOON. HEAT INDEX VALUES ACROSS THE REGION WILL ONCE AGAIN RANGE
FROM 100-105 FOR SEVERAL HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...
PREVAILING VFR CONDS. DRY AIRMASS KEEPS CONVECTION VERY ISOLATED
THIS AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE NEAR TO
WEST OF KVRB-KSUA TAF SITES TOWARD MID AFTERNOON AND TOWARD KDAB
NEAR SUNSET. HOWEVER RAIN CHANCES REMAIN LOW ENOUGH TO NOT ADD TEMPO
GROUPS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
W/SW FLOW 5-10KTS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME E/SE NEAR THE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON AS SEA BREEZE FORMS AND MOVES INLAND. WINDS WILL THEN
BECOME MORE UNIFORM OUT OF THE S/SW TONIGHT. SEAS 1-2 FEET.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FORECAST HIGHS STILL JUST OUT OF REACH OF RECORDS BY 2-4 DEGREES
THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.

RECORD HIGHS:

                   8/20          8/21          8/22
DAYTONA BEACH    97 (1938)     96 (1941)     97 (1980)
ORLANDO         100 (1921)     99 (1925)    100 (1980)
MELBOURNE        96 (1993)     96 (2012)     96 (1993)
VERO BEACH       95 (2005)     97 (1993)     95 (1993)

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

MOSES/VOLKMER








000
FXUS62 KMLB 200716
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
316 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
...HOT TEMPERATURES AND LOWER THAN NORMAL STORM COVERAGE CONTINUING
THROUGH LATE WEEK...

TODAY/TONIGHT...HOT TEMPERATURES AND WELL BELOW NORMAL RAIN CHANCES
CONTINUE TODAY AS MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER FLORIDA AND A CONSIDERABLY
DRY AIRMASS SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. MOST
MODELS SHOW BEST CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE NEAR THE TREASURE COAST AND OKEECHOBEE COUNTY WHERE
COLLISIONS BETWEEN THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE BREEZE AND EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE OCCUR TOWARD MID AFTERNOON. HOWEVER A FEW ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FARTHER NORTH ACROSS THE INTERIOR
AND TOWARD VOLUSIA COUNTY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON/TOWARD SUNSET ALONG
THE INLAND MOVING SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES. HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE MID
90S MOST AREAS...EXCEPT LOW 90S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF BREVARD
COUNTY AND ALONG THE TREASURE COAST WHERE THE SEA BREEZE WILL
DEVELOP AND MOVE INLAND EARLIER IN THE AFTERNOON. HEAT INDEX VALUES
ACROSS THE REGION WILL ONCE AGAIN RANGE FROM 100-105 FOR SEVERAL
HOURS.

ANY ISOLATED CONVECTION LINGERING PAST SUNSET WILL DIMINISH BY LATE
EVENING WITH SKIES BECOMING CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES
FALLING INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S.

THU-SAT...A RATHER STABLE ENVIRONMENT WL BE IN PLACE THROUGH WEEK`S
END DUE TO A NEARLY STNRY UPR RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL TO
EASTERN GULF. PROXIMITY OF FEATURE WL LEAD TO AN LESS THAN FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT OF AFTN STORMS. THE BEST CHC FOR PCPN
DEVELOPMENT WL BE MAINLY ACROSS INTERIOR AREAS AND INTERSTATE FOUR
DURING MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WITH SOME BOUNDARY GENERATED SLOW MOVING
STORMS. ONSHORE FLOW APPEARS TOO LIGHT FOR NIGHT TIME COASTAL SHOWERS
AS WELL. TEMPS WL REMAIN QUITE WARM WITH MID 90S EACH AFTERNOON EXCEPT
FOR THE BEACHES AND MID TO UPPER 70S OVERNIGHT.

NEXT WEEK...UPR RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO NRN GULF IS FORECAST TO
AMPLIFY NWD OVER THE TN/OH VALLEYS EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SUBTLE INCREASE
IN ONSHORE FLOW IS INDICATED WITH PSBLY STRONGER MANIFESTATION OF
AN ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD HGHT FALLS ACROSS CARIB REGION OCCUR WITH
DEVELOPMENT OF INVEST AREA 96. WL GO WITH SCT RAIN CHCS CLOSER IN
LINE TO CLIMO AND ALSO DUE TO RELOCATION OF UPR RIDGE FARTHER FROM
THE IMMEDIATE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDS GENERALLY EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS AS DRY AIRMASS KEEPS
CONVECTION EXTREMELY ISOLATED THIS AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE FOR A
FEW SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE NEAR TO WEST OF KVRB-KSUA TAF SITES
TOWARD MID AFTERNOON AND TOWARD KDAB NEAR SUNSET. HOWEVER RAIN
CHANCES REMAIN LOW ENOUGH TO NOT ADD TEMPO GROUPS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY-TONIGHT...W/SW FLOW THIS MORNING WILL BECOME E/SE NEAR THE
COAST THIS AFTERNOON AS SEA BREEZE FORMS AND MOVES INLAND. WINDS
WILL THEN BECOME MORE UNIFORM OUT OF THE S/SW TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 15 KNOTS WILL SEAS RANGING FROM 1-2 FEET.

LATE WEEK...FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS AROUND 2 FT OR LESS. SEA
BREEZES WL LEAD TO SOME WIND CHOP NEAR THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOONS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FORECAST HIGHS STILL JUST OUT OF REACH OF RECORDS BY 2-4 DEGREES
THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.

RECORD HIGHS:

                   8/20          8/21          8/22
DAYTONA BEACH    97 (1938)     96 (1941)     97 (1980)
ORLANDO         100 (1921)     99 (1925)    100 (1980)
MELBOURNE        96 (1993)     96 (2012)     96 (1993)
VERO BEACH       95 (2005)     97 (1993)     95 (1993)

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  94  75  94  76 /  20  20  20  10
MCO  96  76  96  75 /  20  10  30  10
MLB  93  76  93  76 /  10  10  20  10
VRB  93  75  93  74 /  20  10  20  10
LEE  96  77  96  78 /  20  10  30  10
SFB  96  77  96  78 /  20  10  30  10
ORL  96  78  96  79 /  20  10  30  10
FPR  93  75  92  74 /  20  10  20  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WEITLICH
LONG TERM....PENDERGRAST





000
FXUS62 KMLB 200716
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
316 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
...HOT TEMPERATURES AND LOWER THAN NORMAL STORM COVERAGE CONTINUING
THROUGH LATE WEEK...

TODAY/TONIGHT...HOT TEMPERATURES AND WELL BELOW NORMAL RAIN CHANCES
CONTINUE TODAY AS MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER FLORIDA AND A CONSIDERABLY
DRY AIRMASS SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. MOST
MODELS SHOW BEST CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE NEAR THE TREASURE COAST AND OKEECHOBEE COUNTY WHERE
COLLISIONS BETWEEN THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE BREEZE AND EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE OCCUR TOWARD MID AFTERNOON. HOWEVER A FEW ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FARTHER NORTH ACROSS THE INTERIOR
AND TOWARD VOLUSIA COUNTY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON/TOWARD SUNSET ALONG
THE INLAND MOVING SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES. HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE MID
90S MOST AREAS...EXCEPT LOW 90S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF BREVARD
COUNTY AND ALONG THE TREASURE COAST WHERE THE SEA BREEZE WILL
DEVELOP AND MOVE INLAND EARLIER IN THE AFTERNOON. HEAT INDEX VALUES
ACROSS THE REGION WILL ONCE AGAIN RANGE FROM 100-105 FOR SEVERAL
HOURS.

ANY ISOLATED CONVECTION LINGERING PAST SUNSET WILL DIMINISH BY LATE
EVENING WITH SKIES BECOMING CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES
FALLING INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S.

THU-SAT...A RATHER STABLE ENVIRONMENT WL BE IN PLACE THROUGH WEEK`S
END DUE TO A NEARLY STNRY UPR RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL TO
EASTERN GULF. PROXIMITY OF FEATURE WL LEAD TO AN LESS THAN FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT OF AFTN STORMS. THE BEST CHC FOR PCPN
DEVELOPMENT WL BE MAINLY ACROSS INTERIOR AREAS AND INTERSTATE FOUR
DURING MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WITH SOME BOUNDARY GENERATED SLOW MOVING
STORMS. ONSHORE FLOW APPEARS TOO LIGHT FOR NIGHT TIME COASTAL SHOWERS
AS WELL. TEMPS WL REMAIN QUITE WARM WITH MID 90S EACH AFTERNOON EXCEPT
FOR THE BEACHES AND MID TO UPPER 70S OVERNIGHT.

NEXT WEEK...UPR RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO NRN GULF IS FORECAST TO
AMPLIFY NWD OVER THE TN/OH VALLEYS EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SUBTLE INCREASE
IN ONSHORE FLOW IS INDICATED WITH PSBLY STRONGER MANIFESTATION OF
AN ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD HGHT FALLS ACROSS CARIB REGION OCCUR WITH
DEVELOPMENT OF INVEST AREA 96. WL GO WITH SCT RAIN CHCS CLOSER IN
LINE TO CLIMO AND ALSO DUE TO RELOCATION OF UPR RIDGE FARTHER FROM
THE IMMEDIATE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDS GENERALLY EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS AS DRY AIRMASS KEEPS
CONVECTION EXTREMELY ISOLATED THIS AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE FOR A
FEW SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE NEAR TO WEST OF KVRB-KSUA TAF SITES
TOWARD MID AFTERNOON AND TOWARD KDAB NEAR SUNSET. HOWEVER RAIN
CHANCES REMAIN LOW ENOUGH TO NOT ADD TEMPO GROUPS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY-TONIGHT...W/SW FLOW THIS MORNING WILL BECOME E/SE NEAR THE
COAST THIS AFTERNOON AS SEA BREEZE FORMS AND MOVES INLAND. WINDS
WILL THEN BECOME MORE UNIFORM OUT OF THE S/SW TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 15 KNOTS WILL SEAS RANGING FROM 1-2 FEET.

LATE WEEK...FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS AROUND 2 FT OR LESS. SEA
BREEZES WL LEAD TO SOME WIND CHOP NEAR THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOONS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FORECAST HIGHS STILL JUST OUT OF REACH OF RECORDS BY 2-4 DEGREES
THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.

RECORD HIGHS:

                   8/20          8/21          8/22
DAYTONA BEACH    97 (1938)     96 (1941)     97 (1980)
ORLANDO         100 (1921)     99 (1925)    100 (1980)
MELBOURNE        96 (1993)     96 (2012)     96 (1993)
VERO BEACH       95 (2005)     97 (1993)     95 (1993)

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  94  75  94  76 /  20  20  20  10
MCO  96  76  96  75 /  20  10  30  10
MLB  93  76  93  76 /  10  10  20  10
VRB  93  75  93  74 /  20  10  20  10
LEE  96  77  96  78 /  20  10  30  10
SFB  96  77  96  78 /  20  10  30  10
ORL  96  78  96  79 /  20  10  30  10
FPR  93  75  92  74 /  20  10  20  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WEITLICH
LONG TERM....PENDERGRAST






000
FXUS62 KMLB 200020
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
815 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT-OVERNIGHT...RADAR LOOP INDICATING THAT THE SEA BREEZE WAS
DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF ORANGE...OSCEOLA
AND OKEECHOBEE COUNTIES. WHAT FEW EASTWARD DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
STORMS WERE ALSO QUICKLY DISSIPATING. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD BE DONE
IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH STORMS TO THE WEST IN POLK AND HIGHLANDS COUNTIES WILL
DISSIPATE THROUGH THE EVENING LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AFTER
MIDNIGHT. A TROUGH LYING ACROSS SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND GEORGIA WILL
PUSH THE SURFACE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE
NORTHERN BAHAMA ISLANDS AND RESULT IN LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WED MORNING IN THE LOW AND MID 70S.

FORECAST LOOKS FINE. NO AMENDMENT PLANNED.

PREVIOUS ZONES DISCUSSION
THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...DRY AIR AND LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
SEEMS TO BE WINNING OUT THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE LITTLE ACTIVITY THAT
WAS ON RADAR IN THE PAST HOUR NOW FALLEN APART AND NOT MUCH IN THE
WAY OF ROBUST CU DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REGION. GIVEN THE FEW
SHOWERS THAT HAVE MANAGED TO DEVELOP...WILL KEEP ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND STORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH SUNSET MAINLY FOR ANY MORE
ACTIVITY THAT MAY GET GOING ALONG BOUNDARY COLLISIONS.

WITH THE SEA BREEZE STRUGGLING TO MAKE IT PAST US1 IN MOST
LOCATIONS...TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE LOW-MID 90S ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH HEAT INDICIES IN THE
100-105F RANGE. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 70S UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES.

WED-FRI...WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR HOT TEMPERATURES
AND LOWER THAN NORMAL COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS
CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

THE RIDGE AXIS THAT HAS BEEN JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION SHIFTS
NORTHWEST WITH TIME...EVENTUALLY CENTERING OVER THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK WHILE ANOTHER DEEPENING TROUGH SETS UP
JUST OFFSHORE THE EAST COAST. DRIEST/HOTTEST DAY APPEARS TO BE
WEDNESDAY AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE DIRECTLY OVER FLORIDA. THERE WILL
BE A SLOW INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS AND FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES MORE NORTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TAPPING INTO THE MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH (BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT) MOVING OFF THE
EAST COAST. EAST COAST SEA BREEZE FORMS AND PUSHES INLAND EACH
AFTERNOON WITH STEERING FLOW GENERALLY FAVORING THE INTERIOR TO
WESTERN SIDE OF THE PENINSULA...ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

HIGHS WILL REACH THE MID 90S OVER THE INTERIOR EACH DAY AND ALONG
THE COAST WHERE SEA BREEZE IS DELAYED...OTHERWISE COASTAL AREAS
GENERALLY EXPECTED TO SEE TEMPS MAX OUT IN THE LOW 90S. HEAT INDEX
VALUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 100 TO 105
DEGREES.

SAT-MON...MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL EXTEND ACROSS SOUTHEAST U.S. WITH
TROUGH PERSISTING OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE AHEAD OF A WEAK SFC FRONT/TROUGH MOVING SOUTHWARD FROM MID
ATLANTIC STATES TOWARD FLORIDA INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
MORE NORMAL SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH GREATEST
RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED OVER THE INTERIOR WHERE SEA BREEZE/OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES COLLIDE. HIGHS MAY STILL BE ABLE TO REACH INTO THE MID
90S INLAND SATURDAY AND THEN MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY RANGE IN THE
LOW 90S WITH GREATER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE REGION BY LATE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR.


&&

.MARINE...

CURRENT-OVERNIGHT...SOUTHEAST SEA BREEZE DISSIPATES DURING THE
EVENING THEN SYNOPTIC/LARGER SCALE LIGHT TO MODERATE WESTERLIES RE
ESTABLISH THEMSELVES AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 1 TO 2 FEET WITH SOME 3
FOOT PACKAGES IN THE GULF STREAM.

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES PLANNED TO THE ONGOING OVERNIGHT FORECAST
FROM 4PM.

WED...OFFSHORE WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS IN THE MORNING BECOME ONSHORE ON
THE NEARSHORE AND INTRACOASTAL WATERS EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS AND STARTS MOVING WESTWARD.

PREVIOUS MARINE DISCUSSION
TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY...FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.
ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE SEA BREEZE WILL
BECOME WEST 10-15KTS OVERNIGHT AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY MORN. EAST COAST SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS AGAIN WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS 10KTS NEAR THE COAST AND S-SE 5KTS
OFFSHORE. SEAS 1-2 FEET EXCEPT UP TO 3 FT POSSIBLE WELL OFFSHORE
VOLUSIA & BREVARD (BEYOND 40 NM).

THURS-SAT...SFC RIDGE AXIS EXPECTED TO PERSIST NEAR TO JUST NORTH OF
LAKE OKEECHOBEE. S/SW FLOW WILL BECOME S/SE NEAR THE COAST EACH
AFTERNOON AS SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS AND MOVES INLAND...BUT WIND SPEEDS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 15 KNOTS. SEAS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM
1-2 FEET NEARSHORE UP TO 2-3 FEET OFFSHORE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MELBOURNE HAS REACHED 94 DEGREES TODAY WITH THE SEA BREEZE JUST
REACHING THE AIRPORT...ENDING ANY ADDITIONAL TEMPERATURE RISES FOR
THE DAY. DAYTONA HAS REACHED 94 DEGREES AND THE SEA BREEZE HAS YET
TO REACH THE AIRPORT.

WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WEEK...CURRENT
FORECAST HIGHS LOOK TO REMAIN A FEW DEGREES OUT OF REACH FROM TYING
OR BREAKING ANY RECORDS.

RECORD HIGHS:

                   8/19         8/20          8/21          8/22
DAYTONA BEACH    97 (1993)    97 (1938)     96 (1941)     97 (1980)
ORLANDO         100 (1938)   100 (1921)     99 (1925)    100 (1980)
MELBOURNE        96 (1993)    96 (1993)     96 (2012)     96 (1993)
VERO BEACH       96 (1993)    95 (2005)     97 (1993)     95 (1993)

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  75  95  75  95 /  10  20  20  20
MCO  75  97  76  96 /  10  20  10  30
MLB  74  93  75  93 /  10  10  10  20
VRB  74  93  75  92 /  10  10  10  20
LEE  76  97  77  96 /  10  20  10  30
SFB  77  97  78  97 /  10  20  10  30
ORL  77  96  79  96 /  10  20  10  30
FPR  73  91  73  92 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

IMPACT WX...BRAGAW
FORECASTS...WIMMER







000
FXUS62 KMLB 200020
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
815 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT-OVERNIGHT...RADAR LOOP INDICATING THAT THE SEA BREEZE WAS
DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF ORANGE...OSCEOLA
AND OKEECHOBEE COUNTIES. WHAT FEW EASTWARD DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
STORMS WERE ALSO QUICKLY DISSIPATING. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD BE DONE
IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH STORMS TO THE WEST IN POLK AND HIGHLANDS COUNTIES WILL
DISSIPATE THROUGH THE EVENING LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AFTER
MIDNIGHT. A TROUGH LYING ACROSS SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND GEORGIA WILL
PUSH THE SURFACE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE
NORTHERN BAHAMA ISLANDS AND RESULT IN LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WED MORNING IN THE LOW AND MID 70S.

FORECAST LOOKS FINE. NO AMENDMENT PLANNED.

PREVIOUS ZONES DISCUSSION
THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...DRY AIR AND LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
SEEMS TO BE WINNING OUT THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE LITTLE ACTIVITY THAT
WAS ON RADAR IN THE PAST HOUR NOW FALLEN APART AND NOT MUCH IN THE
WAY OF ROBUST CU DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REGION. GIVEN THE FEW
SHOWERS THAT HAVE MANAGED TO DEVELOP...WILL KEEP ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND STORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH SUNSET MAINLY FOR ANY MORE
ACTIVITY THAT MAY GET GOING ALONG BOUNDARY COLLISIONS.

WITH THE SEA BREEZE STRUGGLING TO MAKE IT PAST US1 IN MOST
LOCATIONS...TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE LOW-MID 90S ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH HEAT INDICIES IN THE
100-105F RANGE. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 70S UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES.

WED-FRI...WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR HOT TEMPERATURES
AND LOWER THAN NORMAL COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS
CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

THE RIDGE AXIS THAT HAS BEEN JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION SHIFTS
NORTHWEST WITH TIME...EVENTUALLY CENTERING OVER THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK WHILE ANOTHER DEEPENING TROUGH SETS UP
JUST OFFSHORE THE EAST COAST. DRIEST/HOTTEST DAY APPEARS TO BE
WEDNESDAY AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE DIRECTLY OVER FLORIDA. THERE WILL
BE A SLOW INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS AND FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES MORE NORTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TAPPING INTO THE MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH (BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT) MOVING OFF THE
EAST COAST. EAST COAST SEA BREEZE FORMS AND PUSHES INLAND EACH
AFTERNOON WITH STEERING FLOW GENERALLY FAVORING THE INTERIOR TO
WESTERN SIDE OF THE PENINSULA...ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

HIGHS WILL REACH THE MID 90S OVER THE INTERIOR EACH DAY AND ALONG
THE COAST WHERE SEA BREEZE IS DELAYED...OTHERWISE COASTAL AREAS
GENERALLY EXPECTED TO SEE TEMPS MAX OUT IN THE LOW 90S. HEAT INDEX
VALUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 100 TO 105
DEGREES.

SAT-MON...MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL EXTEND ACROSS SOUTHEAST U.S. WITH
TROUGH PERSISTING OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE AHEAD OF A WEAK SFC FRONT/TROUGH MOVING SOUTHWARD FROM MID
ATLANTIC STATES TOWARD FLORIDA INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
MORE NORMAL SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH GREATEST
RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED OVER THE INTERIOR WHERE SEA BREEZE/OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES COLLIDE. HIGHS MAY STILL BE ABLE TO REACH INTO THE MID
90S INLAND SATURDAY AND THEN MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY RANGE IN THE
LOW 90S WITH GREATER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE REGION BY LATE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR.


&&

.MARINE...

CURRENT-OVERNIGHT...SOUTHEAST SEA BREEZE DISSIPATES DURING THE
EVENING THEN SYNOPTIC/LARGER SCALE LIGHT TO MODERATE WESTERLIES RE
ESTABLISH THEMSELVES AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 1 TO 2 FEET WITH SOME 3
FOOT PACKAGES IN THE GULF STREAM.

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES PLANNED TO THE ONGOING OVERNIGHT FORECAST
FROM 4PM.

WED...OFFSHORE WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS IN THE MORNING BECOME ONSHORE ON
THE NEARSHORE AND INTRACOASTAL WATERS EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS AND STARTS MOVING WESTWARD.

PREVIOUS MARINE DISCUSSION
TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY...FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.
ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE SEA BREEZE WILL
BECOME WEST 10-15KTS OVERNIGHT AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY MORN. EAST COAST SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS AGAIN WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS 10KTS NEAR THE COAST AND S-SE 5KTS
OFFSHORE. SEAS 1-2 FEET EXCEPT UP TO 3 FT POSSIBLE WELL OFFSHORE
VOLUSIA & BREVARD (BEYOND 40 NM).

THURS-SAT...SFC RIDGE AXIS EXPECTED TO PERSIST NEAR TO JUST NORTH OF
LAKE OKEECHOBEE. S/SW FLOW WILL BECOME S/SE NEAR THE COAST EACH
AFTERNOON AS SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS AND MOVES INLAND...BUT WIND SPEEDS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 15 KNOTS. SEAS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM
1-2 FEET NEARSHORE UP TO 2-3 FEET OFFSHORE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MELBOURNE HAS REACHED 94 DEGREES TODAY WITH THE SEA BREEZE JUST
REACHING THE AIRPORT...ENDING ANY ADDITIONAL TEMPERATURE RISES FOR
THE DAY. DAYTONA HAS REACHED 94 DEGREES AND THE SEA BREEZE HAS YET
TO REACH THE AIRPORT.

WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WEEK...CURRENT
FORECAST HIGHS LOOK TO REMAIN A FEW DEGREES OUT OF REACH FROM TYING
OR BREAKING ANY RECORDS.

RECORD HIGHS:

                   8/19         8/20          8/21          8/22
DAYTONA BEACH    97 (1993)    97 (1938)     96 (1941)     97 (1980)
ORLANDO         100 (1938)   100 (1921)     99 (1925)    100 (1980)
MELBOURNE        96 (1993)    96 (1993)     96 (2012)     96 (1993)
VERO BEACH       96 (1993)    95 (2005)     97 (1993)     95 (1993)

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  75  95  75  95 /  10  20  20  20
MCO  75  97  76  96 /  10  20  10  30
MLB  74  93  75  93 /  10  10  10  20
VRB  74  93  75  92 /  10  10  10  20
LEE  76  97  77  96 /  10  20  10  30
SFB  77  97  78  97 /  10  20  10  30
ORL  77  96  79  96 /  10  20  10  30
FPR  73  91  73  92 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

IMPACT WX...BRAGAW
FORECASTS...WIMMER






000
FXUS62 KMLB 191912
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
312 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...DRY AIR AND LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
SEEMS TO BE WINNING OUT THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE LITTLE ACTIVITY THAT
WAS ON RADAR IN THE PAST HOUR NOW FALLEN APART AND NOT MUCH IN THE
WAY OF ROBUST CU DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REGION. GIVEN THE FEW
SHOWERS THAT HAVE MANAGED TO DEVELOP...WILL KEEP ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND STORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH SUNSET MAINLY FOR ANY MORE
ACTIVITY THAT MAY GET GOING ALONG BOUNDARY COLLISIONS.

WITH THE SEA BREEZE STRUGGLING TO MAKE IT PAST US1 IN MOST
LOCATIONS...TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE LOW-MID 90S ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH HEAT INDICIES IN THE
100-105F RANGE. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 70S UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES.

WED-FRI...WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR HOT TEMPERATURES
AND LOWER THAN NORMAL COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS
CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

THE RIDGE AXIS THAT HAS BEEN JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION SHIFTS
NORTHWEST WITH TIME...EVENTUALLY CENTERING OVER THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK WHILE ANOTHER DEEPENING TROUGH SETS UP
JUST OFFSHORE THE EAST COAST. DRIEST/HOTTEST DAY APPEARS TO BE
WEDNESDAY AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE DIRECTLY OVER FLORIDA. THERE WILL
BE A SLOW INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS AND FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES MORE NORTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TAPPING INTO THE MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH (BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT) MOVING OFF THE
EAST COAST. EAST COAST SEA BREEZE FORMS AND PUSHES INLAND EACH
AFTERNOON WITH STEERING FLOW GENERALLY FAVORING THE INTERIOR TO
WESTERN SIDE OF THE PENINSULA...ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

HIGHS WILL REACH THE MID 90S OVER THE INTERIOR EACH DAY AND ALONG
THE COAST WHERE SEA BREEZE IS DELAYED...OTHERWISE COASTAL AREAS
GENERALLY EXPECTED TO SEE TEMPS MAX OUT IN THE LOW 90S. HEAT INDEX
VALUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 100 TO 105
DEGREES.

FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SAT-MON...MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL EXTEND ACROSS SOUTHEAST U.S. WITH
TROUGH PERSISTING OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE AHEAD OF A WEAK SFC FRONT/TROUGH MOVING SOUTHWARD FROM MID
ATLANTIC STATES TOWARD FLORIDA INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
MORE NORMAL SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH GREATEST
RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED OVER THE INTERIOR WHERE SEA BREEZE/OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES COLLIDE. HIGHS MAY STILL BE ABLE TO REACH INTO THE MID
90S INLAND SATURDAY AND THEN MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY RANGE IN THE
LOW 90S WITH GREATER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE REGION BY LATE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR. NO SHOWERS OR STORMS TO SPEAK OF AT THIS
TIME AND EVEN CU DEVELOPMENT LOOKS ANEMIC THIS AFTERNOON...BUT LATE
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE COLLISION MAY DEVELOP A STORM OR TWO BETWEEN
22Z-01Z NEAR THE COAST. COVERAGE LOOKS EQUALLY SLIM ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY...FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.
ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE SEA BREEZE WILL
BECOME WEST 10-15KTS OVERNIGHT AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY MORN. EAST COAST SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS AGAIN WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS 10KTS NEAR THE COAST AND S-SE 5KTS
OFFSHORE. SEAS 1-2 FEET EXCEPT UP TO 3 FT POSSIBLE WELL OFFSHORE
VOLUSIA & BREVARD (BEYOND 40 NM).

THURS-SAT...SFC RIDGE AXIS EXPECTED TO PERSIST NEAR TO JUST NORTH OF
LAKE OKEECHOBEE. S/SW FLOW WILL BECOME S/SE NEAR THE COAST EACH
AFTERNOON AS SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS AND MOVES INLAND...BUT WIND SPEEDS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 15 KNOTS. SEAS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM
1-2 FEET NEARSHORE UP TO 2-3 FEET OFFSHORE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MELBOURNE HAS REACHED 94 DEGREES TODAY WITH THE SEA BREEZE JUST
REACHING THE AIRPORT...ENDING ANY ADDITIONAL TEMPERATURE RISES FOR
THE DAY. DAYTONA HAS REACHED 94 DEGREES AND THE SEA BREEZE HAS YET
TO REACH THE AIRPORT.

WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WEEK...CURRENT
FORECAST HIGHS LOOK TO REMAIN A FEW DEGREES OUT OF REACH FROM TYING
OR BREAKING ANY RECORDS.

RECORD HIGHS:

                   8/19         8/20          8/21          8/22
DAYTONA BEACH    97 (1993)    97 (1938)     96 (1941)     97 (1980)
ORLANDO         100 (1938)   100 (1921)     99 (1925)    100 (1980)
MELBOURNE        96 (1993)    96 (1993)     96 (2012)     96 (1993)
VERO BEACH       96 (1993)    95 (2005)     97 (1993)     95 (1993)

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  75  95  75  95 /  10  20  20  20
MCO  75  97  76  96 /  10  20  10  30
MLB  74  93  75  93 /  10  10  10  20
VRB  74  93  75  92 /  10  10  10  20
LEE  76  97  77  96 /  10  20  10  30
SFB  77  97  78  97 /  10  20  10  30
ORL  77  96  79  96 /  10  20  10  30
FPR  73  91  73  92 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...MOSES
RADAR/IMPACT WX...VOLKMER







000
FXUS62 KMLB 191403
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1002 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LARGER PATTERN FROM YESTERDAY AS BOTH UPPER AND
LOWER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS REMAINS SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOWS RATHER DRY AIR REMAINS THROUGH
THE COLUMN WITH PWATS IN THE 1.5-1.7" RANGE WITH NO SIGNIFICANT MID
LEVEL DISTURBANCES AFFECTING THE AREA.

BOTH LOW LEVEL AND MID LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW A NARROW BAND OF HIGHER
MOISTURE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE TREASURE
COAST AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE MARKED BY A BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
OVER THE ATLANTIC AND GULF. ITS EXPECTED THAT THIS HIGHER MOISTURE
BAND IN COMBINATION WITH THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE WILL BE THE INITIAL AREA FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING.

THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BE WEAKER ALONG THE TREASURE COAST DUE TO
PROXIMITY OF LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SO THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL
DEVELOP THERE FIRST BY EARLY AFTERNOON THEN ZIPPER UP THE COAST TO
BREVARD. THE SEA BREEZE WILL BE DELAYED ALONG THE VOLUSIA COAST DUE
TO STRONGER OFFSHORE FLOW AND IT SHOULD NOT MAKE MUCH INLAND
PENETRATION. RAIN CHANCES WILL OVERALL REMAIN ISOLATED ACROSS THE
REGION AT 20 PERCENT OR LESS. GIVEN THE DRY AIR ALOFT...ANY DEEP
CONVECTION WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS
UP TO 50 MPH.

OFFSHORE FLOW WITHOUT THE STORM COVERAGE WILL BRING HOT TEMPERATURES
WITH HIGHS SOLIDLY IN THE MID 90S INTERIOR AND VOLUSIA COAST...AND
EVEN LOWER 90S AT THE COAST SOUTH OF THE CAPE. HEAT INDICES BETWEEN
100 AND 103 ARE EXPECTED AND ARE NOT UNCOMMON FOR AUGUST IN CENTRAL
FL. INDICES UP TO 105 WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT THIS IS BELOW HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR. THE CHANCE FOR STORMS IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ANY TEMPO OR
EVEN VC TERM IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPS ALONG COAST SOUTH OF CAPE AFTER 16Z...NORTH OF CAPE AFTER
19Z. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS SHOULD BE AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE
WITH STEERING FLOW BRINGING A FEW STORMS BACK TOWARDS THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH OFFSHORE (W-SW) FLOW
10 KNOTS OR LESS THIS MORNING...TURNING ONSHORE (E-SE) THIS AFTN
NEAR THE COAST SOUTH OF THE CAPE. SEAS 1-2 FEET EXCEPT UP TO 3 FT
POSSIBLE WELL OFFSHORE VOLUSIA & BREVARD (BEYOND 40 NM). ONLY
ISOLATED AFTN STORMS ARE EXPECTED BUT WESTERLY STEERING FLOW MAY
BRING ONE OR TWO STORMS TO THE COAST AND PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS 35 TO
40 KNOTS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WEEK...CURRENT
FORECAST HIGHS LOOK TO REMAIN A FEW DEGREES OUT OF REACH FROM TYING
OR BREAKING ANY RECORDS.

RECORD HIGHS:

                   8/19         8/20          8/21          8/22
DAYTONA BEACH    97 (1993)    97 (1938)     96 (1941)     97 (1980)
ORLANDO         100 (1938)   100 (1921)     99 (1925)    100 (1980)
MELBOURNE        96 (1993)    96 (1993)     96 (2012)     96 (1993)
VERO BEACH       96 (1993)    95 (2005)     97 (1993)     95 (1993)

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

MOSES/VOLKMER









000
FXUS62 KMLB 191403
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1002 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LARGER PATTERN FROM YESTERDAY AS BOTH UPPER AND
LOWER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS REMAINS SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOWS RATHER DRY AIR REMAINS THROUGH
THE COLUMN WITH PWATS IN THE 1.5-1.7" RANGE WITH NO SIGNIFICANT MID
LEVEL DISTURBANCES AFFECTING THE AREA.

BOTH LOW LEVEL AND MID LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW A NARROW BAND OF HIGHER
MOISTURE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE TREASURE
COAST AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE MARKED BY A BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
OVER THE ATLANTIC AND GULF. ITS EXPECTED THAT THIS HIGHER MOISTURE
BAND IN COMBINATION WITH THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE WILL BE THE INITIAL AREA FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING.

THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BE WEAKER ALONG THE TREASURE COAST DUE TO
PROXIMITY OF LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SO THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL
DEVELOP THERE FIRST BY EARLY AFTERNOON THEN ZIPPER UP THE COAST TO
BREVARD. THE SEA BREEZE WILL BE DELAYED ALONG THE VOLUSIA COAST DUE
TO STRONGER OFFSHORE FLOW AND IT SHOULD NOT MAKE MUCH INLAND
PENETRATION. RAIN CHANCES WILL OVERALL REMAIN ISOLATED ACROSS THE
REGION AT 20 PERCENT OR LESS. GIVEN THE DRY AIR ALOFT...ANY DEEP
CONVECTION WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS
UP TO 50 MPH.

OFFSHORE FLOW WITHOUT THE STORM COVERAGE WILL BRING HOT TEMPERATURES
WITH HIGHS SOLIDLY IN THE MID 90S INTERIOR AND VOLUSIA COAST...AND
EVEN LOWER 90S AT THE COAST SOUTH OF THE CAPE. HEAT INDICES BETWEEN
100 AND 103 ARE EXPECTED AND ARE NOT UNCOMMON FOR AUGUST IN CENTRAL
FL. INDICES UP TO 105 WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT THIS IS BELOW HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR. THE CHANCE FOR STORMS IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ANY TEMPO OR
EVEN VC TERM IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPS ALONG COAST SOUTH OF CAPE AFTER 16Z...NORTH OF CAPE AFTER
19Z. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS SHOULD BE AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE
WITH STEERING FLOW BRINGING A FEW STORMS BACK TOWARDS THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH OFFSHORE (W-SW) FLOW
10 KNOTS OR LESS THIS MORNING...TURNING ONSHORE (E-SE) THIS AFTN
NEAR THE COAST SOUTH OF THE CAPE. SEAS 1-2 FEET EXCEPT UP TO 3 FT
POSSIBLE WELL OFFSHORE VOLUSIA & BREVARD (BEYOND 40 NM). ONLY
ISOLATED AFTN STORMS ARE EXPECTED BUT WESTERLY STEERING FLOW MAY
BRING ONE OR TWO STORMS TO THE COAST AND PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS 35 TO
40 KNOTS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WEEK...CURRENT
FORECAST HIGHS LOOK TO REMAIN A FEW DEGREES OUT OF REACH FROM TYING
OR BREAKING ANY RECORDS.

RECORD HIGHS:

                   8/19         8/20          8/21          8/22
DAYTONA BEACH    97 (1993)    97 (1938)     96 (1941)     97 (1980)
ORLANDO         100 (1938)   100 (1921)     99 (1925)    100 (1980)
MELBOURNE        96 (1993)    96 (1993)     96 (2012)     96 (1993)
VERO BEACH       96 (1993)    95 (2005)     97 (1993)     95 (1993)

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

MOSES/VOLKMER










000
FXUS62 KMLB 190821
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
421 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY...MUCH BELOW NORMAL RAIN/STORM CHANCES EXPECTED AS TEMPS
ALOFT REMAIN WARM/STABLE AND RATHER DRY AIR REMAINS THROUGH THE
COLUMN. THERE ARE ALSO NO SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES
AFFECTING THE AREA. BUT STRONG SURFACE HEATING WILL COMBINE WITH
DEEP LAYER WESTERLY FLOW TO PRODUCE HOT TEMPERATURES...HIGHS
SOLIDLY IN THE MID 90S INTERIOR AND VOLUSIA COAST...AND EVEN LOWER
90S AT THE COAST SOUTH OF THE CAPE. HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 100 AND
103 ARE EXPECTED AND ARE NOT UNCOMMON FOR AUGUST IN CENTRAL FL.
INDICES UP TO 105 WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT THIS IS BELOW HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BE WEAKER ALONG THE TREASURE COAST DUE TO
PROXIMITY OF LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SO THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
WILL DEVELOP THERE FIRST BY EARLY AFTN THEN ZIPPER UP THE COAST TO
BREVARD. THE SEA BREEZE WILL BE DELAYED ALONG THE VOLUSIA COAST
DUE TO STRONGER OFFSHORE FLOW AND IT SHOULD NOT MAKE MUCH INLAND
PENETRATION. ALTHOUGH GFS AND ECMWF MOS SHOWS VERY LOW RAIN
CHANCES (10 PERCENT OR LESS)...HAVE ADVERTISED LESS THAN 20
PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ISOLATED
STORMS SHOULD BE BETWEEN OKEECHOBEE AND THE TREASURE COAST DUE TO
BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS WITH THE SEA AND LAKE BREEZES. GIVEN THE DRY
AIR ALOFT...ANY DEEP CONVECTION WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS UP TO 50 MPH.

WED-FRI...WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR HOT TEMPERATURES
AND LOWER THAN NORMAL COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS
CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO MID TO LATE WEEK. DRIEST/HOTTEST DAY APPEARS TO
BE WEDNESDAY WITH MID LEVEL RIDGE DIRECTLY OVER FLORIDA. THEN AS
UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS NORTHWEST TOWARD THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
SUPPRESSION ALOFT WEAKENS. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW MORE STORMS
THU/FRI AFTERNOONS ESPECIALLY FROM ORLANDO WESTWARD WHERE LATE DAY
BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS ARE MOST LIKELY. HOWEVER COVERAGE WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS WILL REACH THE MID 90S OVER THE INTERIOR EACH
DAY AND ALONG THE COAST WHERE SEA BREEZE IS DELAYED...OTHERWISE
COASTAL AREAS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO SEE TEMPS MAX OUT IN THE LOW
90S. HEAT INDEX VALUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION WILL GENERALLY RANGE
FROM 100 TO 105 DEGREES.

SAT-MON...MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL EXTEND ACROSS SOUTHEAST U.S. WITH
TROUGH PERSISTING OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE AHEAD OF A WEAK SFC FRONT/TROUGH MOVING SOUTHWARD FROM MID
ATLANTIC STATES TOWARD FLORIDA INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
MORE NORMAL SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH GREATEST
RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED OVER THE INTERIOR WHERE SEA BREEZE/OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES COLLIDE. HIGHS MAY STILL BE ABLE TO REACH INTO THE MID
90S INLAND SATURDAY AND THEN MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY RANGE IN THE
LOW 90S WITH GREATER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE REGION BY LATE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR. THE CHANCE FOR STORMS IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ANY TEMPO
OR EVEN VC TERM IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
STORMS SHOULD BE AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE. WESTERLY STEERING FLOW
MAY BRING ONE OR TWO STORMS TOWARD VRB/FPR AFT 18Z.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH OFFSHORE
(W-SW) FLOW 10 KNOTS OR LESS THIS MORNING...TURNING ONSHORE (E-SE)
THIS AFTN NEAR THE COAST SOUTH OF THE CAPE. SEAS 1-2 FEET EXCEPT
UP TO 3 FT POSSIBLE WELL OFFSHORE VOLUSIA & BREVARD (BEYOND 40 NM).
ONLY ISOLATED AFTN STORMS ARE EXPECTED BUT WESTERLY STEERING FLOW
MAY BRING ONE OR TWO STORMS TO THE COAST AND PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS
35 TO 40 KNOTS.

WED-SAT...SFC RIDGE AXIS EXPECTED TO PERSIST NEAR TO JUST NORTH OF
LAKE OKEECHOBEE. S/SW FLOW WILL BECOME S/SE NEAR THE COAST EACH
AFTERNOON AS SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS AND MOVES INLAND...BUT WIND SPEEDS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 15 KNOTS. SEAS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1-2
FEET NEARSHORE UP TO 2-3 FEET OFFSHORE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WEEK...CURRENT
FORECAST HIGHS LOOK TO REMAIN A FEW DEGREES OUT OF REACH FROM TYING
OR BREAKING ANY RECORDS.

RECORD HIGHS:

                   8/19         8/20          8/21          8/22
DAYTONA BEACH    97 (1993)    97 (1938)     96 (1941)     97 (1980)
ORLANDO         100 (1938)   100 (1921)     99 (1925)    100 (1980)
MELBOURNE        96 (1993)    96 (1993)     96 (2012)     96 (1993)
VERO BEACH       96 (1993)    95 (2005)     97 (1993)     95 (1993)

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  95  75  94  76 /  20  10  20  20
MCO  96  75  96  75 /  20  10  20  10
MLB  93  75  93  76 /  20  10  10  10
VRB  92  73  93  75 /  20  10  10  10
LEE  96  76  96  78 /  20  10  20  10
SFB  96  77  96  78 /  20  10  20  10
ORL  96  78  96  79 /  20  10  20  10
FPR  92  73  93  74 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KELLY
LONG TERM....WEITLICH







000
FXUS62 KMLB 190821
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
421 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY...MUCH BELOW NORMAL RAIN/STORM CHANCES EXPECTED AS TEMPS
ALOFT REMAIN WARM/STABLE AND RATHER DRY AIR REMAINS THROUGH THE
COLUMN. THERE ARE ALSO NO SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES
AFFECTING THE AREA. BUT STRONG SURFACE HEATING WILL COMBINE WITH
DEEP LAYER WESTERLY FLOW TO PRODUCE HOT TEMPERATURES...HIGHS
SOLIDLY IN THE MID 90S INTERIOR AND VOLUSIA COAST...AND EVEN LOWER
90S AT THE COAST SOUTH OF THE CAPE. HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 100 AND
103 ARE EXPECTED AND ARE NOT UNCOMMON FOR AUGUST IN CENTRAL FL.
INDICES UP TO 105 WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT THIS IS BELOW HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BE WEAKER ALONG THE TREASURE COAST DUE TO
PROXIMITY OF LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SO THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
WILL DEVELOP THERE FIRST BY EARLY AFTN THEN ZIPPER UP THE COAST TO
BREVARD. THE SEA BREEZE WILL BE DELAYED ALONG THE VOLUSIA COAST
DUE TO STRONGER OFFSHORE FLOW AND IT SHOULD NOT MAKE MUCH INLAND
PENETRATION. ALTHOUGH GFS AND ECMWF MOS SHOWS VERY LOW RAIN
CHANCES (10 PERCENT OR LESS)...HAVE ADVERTISED LESS THAN 20
PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ISOLATED
STORMS SHOULD BE BETWEEN OKEECHOBEE AND THE TREASURE COAST DUE TO
BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS WITH THE SEA AND LAKE BREEZES. GIVEN THE DRY
AIR ALOFT...ANY DEEP CONVECTION WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS UP TO 50 MPH.

WED-FRI...WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR HOT TEMPERATURES
AND LOWER THAN NORMAL COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS
CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO MID TO LATE WEEK. DRIEST/HOTTEST DAY APPEARS TO
BE WEDNESDAY WITH MID LEVEL RIDGE DIRECTLY OVER FLORIDA. THEN AS
UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS NORTHWEST TOWARD THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
SUPPRESSION ALOFT WEAKENS. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW MORE STORMS
THU/FRI AFTERNOONS ESPECIALLY FROM ORLANDO WESTWARD WHERE LATE DAY
BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS ARE MOST LIKELY. HOWEVER COVERAGE WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS WILL REACH THE MID 90S OVER THE INTERIOR EACH
DAY AND ALONG THE COAST WHERE SEA BREEZE IS DELAYED...OTHERWISE
COASTAL AREAS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO SEE TEMPS MAX OUT IN THE LOW
90S. HEAT INDEX VALUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION WILL GENERALLY RANGE
FROM 100 TO 105 DEGREES.

SAT-MON...MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL EXTEND ACROSS SOUTHEAST U.S. WITH
TROUGH PERSISTING OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE AHEAD OF A WEAK SFC FRONT/TROUGH MOVING SOUTHWARD FROM MID
ATLANTIC STATES TOWARD FLORIDA INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
MORE NORMAL SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH GREATEST
RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED OVER THE INTERIOR WHERE SEA BREEZE/OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES COLLIDE. HIGHS MAY STILL BE ABLE TO REACH INTO THE MID
90S INLAND SATURDAY AND THEN MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY RANGE IN THE
LOW 90S WITH GREATER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE REGION BY LATE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR. THE CHANCE FOR STORMS IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ANY TEMPO
OR EVEN VC TERM IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
STORMS SHOULD BE AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE. WESTERLY STEERING FLOW
MAY BRING ONE OR TWO STORMS TOWARD VRB/FPR AFT 18Z.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH OFFSHORE
(W-SW) FLOW 10 KNOTS OR LESS THIS MORNING...TURNING ONSHORE (E-SE)
THIS AFTN NEAR THE COAST SOUTH OF THE CAPE. SEAS 1-2 FEET EXCEPT
UP TO 3 FT POSSIBLE WELL OFFSHORE VOLUSIA & BREVARD (BEYOND 40 NM).
ONLY ISOLATED AFTN STORMS ARE EXPECTED BUT WESTERLY STEERING FLOW
MAY BRING ONE OR TWO STORMS TO THE COAST AND PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS
35 TO 40 KNOTS.

WED-SAT...SFC RIDGE AXIS EXPECTED TO PERSIST NEAR TO JUST NORTH OF
LAKE OKEECHOBEE. S/SW FLOW WILL BECOME S/SE NEAR THE COAST EACH
AFTERNOON AS SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS AND MOVES INLAND...BUT WIND SPEEDS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 15 KNOTS. SEAS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1-2
FEET NEARSHORE UP TO 2-3 FEET OFFSHORE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WEEK...CURRENT
FORECAST HIGHS LOOK TO REMAIN A FEW DEGREES OUT OF REACH FROM TYING
OR BREAKING ANY RECORDS.

RECORD HIGHS:

                   8/19         8/20          8/21          8/22
DAYTONA BEACH    97 (1993)    97 (1938)     96 (1941)     97 (1980)
ORLANDO         100 (1938)   100 (1921)     99 (1925)    100 (1980)
MELBOURNE        96 (1993)    96 (1993)     96 (2012)     96 (1993)
VERO BEACH       96 (1993)    95 (2005)     97 (1993)     95 (1993)

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  95  75  94  76 /  20  10  20  20
MCO  96  75  96  75 /  20  10  20  10
MLB  93  75  93  76 /  20  10  10  10
VRB  92  73  93  75 /  20  10  10  10
LEE  96  76  96  78 /  20  10  20  10
SFB  96  77  96  78 /  20  10  20  10
ORL  96  78  96  79 /  20  10  20  10
FPR  92  73  93  74 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KELLY
LONG TERM....WEITLICH








000
FXUS62 KMLB 190124
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
915 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
OTHER THAN A SINGLE DEEP STORM OVER SOUTH OSCEOLA COUNTY THIS
EVE...THERE WAS RELATIVELY LITTLE STORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING DESPITE NUMEROUS BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS. DEEP MOISTURE WAS
CONFINED TO AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF CENTRAL FL. SOME STORMS DID GET
UNDERWAY...BUT DRIER AIR AND SOMEWHAT WARMER TEMPS IN THE MID LEVELS
BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH LIMITED DEVELOPMENT. PWAT VALUES ONLY
BETWEEN 1.5-1.6 IS RELATIVELY UNCOMMON FOR AUGUST...AND SO IS STRONG
BOUNDARY COLLISIONS WITH LITTLE DEEP CONVECTION.

OVERNIGHT...ACTIVITY IS NOW DISSIPATED WITH JUST A FEW SC REMAINING.
FCST MIN TEMPS ON TRACK. WILL ONLY UPDATE TO REMOVE MENTION OF PCPN.
NO OTHER CHGS PLANNED.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR OVERNIGHT. FEW TS ACROSS AREA TMRW BUT COVERAGE LOOKS TOO LOW TO
ADD A TEMPO GROUP TO ANY TERMINALS BUT VCTS HAS BEEN ADDED TO
COASTAL LOCATIONS FROM MLB TO SUA DUE TO BREEZE BNDRY INTERACTIONS
AND A BIT HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT MOVING BACK INTO SOUTHERN SECTIONS.

&&

.MARINE...

TONIGHT...ATLANTIC RIDGE AXIS OVER SOUTHERN PENINSULA WILL PROVIDE A
SOUTHWEST/SOUTH WIND FLOW. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE A LITTLE
GREATER OVER NORTHERN WATERS DUE TO LOWERED PRESSURES ALONG FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WELL TO OUR NORTH...SO SPEEDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL OCCUR IN
THE NORTH OFFSHORE WATERS.

TUE-SAT...SFC RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC SHIFTS SLOWLY NORTH AND
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. W/SW WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
S/SE BY LATE WEEK WITH SPEEDS REMAINING BELOW 15 KNOTS. SEAS 3
FEET OR LESS. BY SAT THE ATLANTIC RIDGE IS PROGGED TO SETTLE A
LITTLE SOUTH AS A FRONTAL TROUGH DROPS DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
THIS MAY LEAD TO AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR OFFSHORE MOVING AFTERNOON
STORMS.


&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION/SHORT TERM...BLOTTMAN
IMPACT....BRAGAW










000
FXUS62 KMLB 190124
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
915 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
OTHER THAN A SINGLE DEEP STORM OVER SOUTH OSCEOLA COUNTY THIS
EVE...THERE WAS RELATIVELY LITTLE STORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING DESPITE NUMEROUS BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS. DEEP MOISTURE WAS
CONFINED TO AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF CENTRAL FL. SOME STORMS DID GET
UNDERWAY...BUT DRIER AIR AND SOMEWHAT WARMER TEMPS IN THE MID LEVELS
BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH LIMITED DEVELOPMENT. PWAT VALUES ONLY
BETWEEN 1.5-1.6 IS RELATIVELY UNCOMMON FOR AUGUST...AND SO IS STRONG
BOUNDARY COLLISIONS WITH LITTLE DEEP CONVECTION.

OVERNIGHT...ACTIVITY IS NOW DISSIPATED WITH JUST A FEW SC REMAINING.
FCST MIN TEMPS ON TRACK. WILL ONLY UPDATE TO REMOVE MENTION OF PCPN.
NO OTHER CHGS PLANNED.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR OVERNIGHT. FEW TS ACROSS AREA TMRW BUT COVERAGE LOOKS TOO LOW TO
ADD A TEMPO GROUP TO ANY TERMINALS BUT VCTS HAS BEEN ADDED TO
COASTAL LOCATIONS FROM MLB TO SUA DUE TO BREEZE BNDRY INTERACTIONS
AND A BIT HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT MOVING BACK INTO SOUTHERN SECTIONS.

&&

.MARINE...

TONIGHT...ATLANTIC RIDGE AXIS OVER SOUTHERN PENINSULA WILL PROVIDE A
SOUTHWEST/SOUTH WIND FLOW. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE A LITTLE
GREATER OVER NORTHERN WATERS DUE TO LOWERED PRESSURES ALONG FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WELL TO OUR NORTH...SO SPEEDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL OCCUR IN
THE NORTH OFFSHORE WATERS.

TUE-SAT...SFC RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC SHIFTS SLOWLY NORTH AND
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. W/SW WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
S/SE BY LATE WEEK WITH SPEEDS REMAINING BELOW 15 KNOTS. SEAS 3
FEET OR LESS. BY SAT THE ATLANTIC RIDGE IS PROGGED TO SETTLE A
LITTLE SOUTH AS A FRONTAL TROUGH DROPS DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
THIS MAY LEAD TO AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR OFFSHORE MOVING AFTERNOON
STORMS.


&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION/SHORT TERM...BLOTTMAN
IMPACT....BRAGAW











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