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000
FXUS62 KMLB 071555 AAA
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1050 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.DISCUSSION...

...WINDY AND COLDER TODAY WITH VERY HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

VERY POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS CROSSING THE FL PENINSULA THIS
MORNING AND INDUCING RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF SFC LOW OFF THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST. RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND CYCLONIC TURNING OF THE WINDS
IN THE LOWEST LEVELS IS PRODUCING LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING AND
OCCASIONAL SPRINKLES/ LIGHT SHOWERS. THESE WILL BOTH GET SCOURED OUT
AS UPPER TROUGH AXIS CROSSES THE AREA AND SFC LOW PULLS FARTHER AWAY
THIS AFTN. WITH INCREASED SUNSHINE THOUGH WILL COME STRONG GUSTY
WINDS THAT MIX DOWN TO THE SFC...WITH NUMEROUS GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 MPH
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTN. LAKE WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR ALL
COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED NEARLY STEADY THIS MORNING IN
THE MID TO UPPER 40S DUE TO THE LOW CLOUDS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION
BUT WILL ONLY RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S THIS AFTERNOON (LOWER
60S TREASURE COAST) DESPITE INCREASING SUNSHINE. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE
ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.


&&

.AVIATION... CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AT ALL TERMINALS BY 18Z
AS LOW CLOUDS DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST. PRIMARY CONCERN WILL THEN
BECOME STRONG W/NW WINDS 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS THROUGH
23Z. THE GUSTINESS WILL DECREASE WITH SUNSET AND SKIES WILL BE CLEAR.

&&

.MARINE... NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO CURRENT COASTAL WATERS FCST.
TODAY/TONIGHT...VERY HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY
OVER THE WATERS AS LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE LIFTS NORTH-NORTHEAST AND
CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN. THE VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN ITS
WAKE WILL PRODUCE NW WINDS UP TO 25-30 KNOTS OFFSHORE WITH FREQUENT
GUSTS TO GALE FORCE...BUILDING SEAS UP TO 10-15 FEET OVER THE GULF
STREAM. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES NEARSHORE WITH GALE WARNING
OFFSHORE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. HEADLINES WILL THEN NEED TO
TRANSITION TO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE WATERS INTO
TONIGHT AS WINDS ONLY SLOWLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT...KEEPING BOATING
CONDITIONS HAZARDOUS.


&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  54  38  66  43 /  20   0  10  20
MCO  57  39  66  46 /  10   0  10  20
MLB  58  38  64  44 /  10   0  10  20
VRB  59  38  65  48 /  10   0  10  20
LEE  56  40  67  45 /  10   0  10  20
SFB  57  39  66  44 /  10   0  10  20
ORL  56  42  65  49 /  10   0  10  20
FPR  59  39  64  48 /  10   0  10  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     VOLUSIA COUNTY-INDIAN RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA COUNTY-MARTIN-
     NORTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY-OKEECHOBEE-
     ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-SOUTHERN
     LAKE COUNTY-ST. LUCIE.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR FLAGLER
     BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM-SEBASTIAN
     INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE
     TO SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR FLAGLER BEACH TO
     VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-SEBASTIAN INLET TO
     JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
     SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.

&&

$$

KELLY/SPRATT





000
FXUS62 KMLB 070829
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
329 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.DISCUSSION...
...WINDY AND COLDER TODAY WITH VERY HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

TODAY/TONIGHT...VIGOROUS MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING EASTWARD
ACROSS FLORIDA THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN LOW PRESSURE
EAST OF THE REGION AS IT LIFTS N/NE. A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
IN THE WAKE OF THIS LOW WILL PRODUCE A WINDY NORTHWEST FLOW THAT
WILL TRANSPORT A DRIER/COLDER AIRMASS INTO THE AREA. ISSUED A LAKE
WIND ADVISORY FOR ALL EAST CENTRAL FL COUNTIES TODAY WITH FORECAST
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS AROUND 20 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 30-35 MPH. MOS
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUD DECK WILL LIKELY PERSIST
INTO THE MID-LATE MORNING HOURS. A GRADUALLY EROSION OF THIS DECK IS
THEN EXPECTED WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. WITH CLOUDY SKIES THIS MORNING...STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL LIKELY ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL EVEN PAST SUNRISE
CONTINUING CHILLY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MORNING. EVEN AFTER CLOUDS
BREAK UP AND CLEAR ONLY EXPECTING HIGHS TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER
50S OVER MUCH OF THE REGION...WHICH IS AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

MON-THU...A CLOSED LOW INITIALLY CENTERED NEAR THE GRT LAKES
EARLY MON WL OPEN INTO A BROAD TROUGH TUE-WED WHILE MAINTAINING
ITS STRENGTH AS A RATHER DEEP CYCLONIC FEATURE ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS. PRESENCE OF THE FEATURE WL BRING UNSEASONABLY COOL
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. A SERIES OF MAINLY
DRY FRONTAL PASSAGES BEGINNING LATE MON AND AGAIN ON LATE TUE AND
AROUND LATE WED WL SUPPLY DRY/COLD AIR WITH NO SIG CHANCE OF
RECEIVING MEASURABLE RAINFALL. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN
THE U50S TO 60S DAILY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH TWO OR THREE NIGHTS OF
LOWS DIPPING INTO THE 30S OVER MOST OF THE AREA. PROGRESSIVE
NATURE OF FRONTAL PSGS WL FORTUNATELY PREVENT FULL RADIATIONAL
COOLING TO OCCUR AND THUS THE THREAT FOR FREEZING TEMPERATURES
APPEARS MINIMAL AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED...THE EAST CST TROUGH WL MOVE EAST OF THE US CST LATE IN
THE WEEK. BROAD HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE OH VALLEY TO SE STATES WL
BRING QUIET CONDS INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH NO MENTIONABLE RAIN CHCS
LOCALLY AND TEMPS NEAR NORMAL FOR FEB. HIGHS WILL MAKE IT INTO THE
70S OVER A LARGE PART OF TEH AREA FOR THE FIRST TIME ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE LOW CIGS AROUND 500-1000 FT
WILL PERSIST OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z WITH
GRADUALLY IMPROVEMENT TO VFR THIS AFT...AROUND 17-19Z AS DRIER AIR
BUILDING IN WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THIS LOWER CLOUD DECK. MODELS
INDICATE KDAB/KTIX MAY BE THE LAST TO HOLD ON TO THIS LOWER CLOUD
DECK. WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE AREA TODAY IN THE WAKE OF
THE DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WITH NW WINDS GENERALLY 18-20 KNOTS
GUSTING TO 25-30 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY/TONIGHT...VERY HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY
OVER THE WATERS AS LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE LIFTS NORTH-NORTHEAST AND
CONTINUES TO DEEPEN. THE VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN ITS WAKE
WILL PRODUCE NW WINDS UP TO 25-30 KNOTS OFFSHORE WITH FREQUENT GUSTS
TO GALE FORCE...BUILDING SEAS UP TO 10-15 FEET OVER THE GULF STREAM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES NEARSHORE WITH GALE WARNING OFFSHORE
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. HEADLINES WILL THEN NEED TO TRANSITION TO A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE WATERS INTO TONIGHT AS WINDS
ONLY SLOWLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT...KEEPING BOATING CONDITIONS
HAZARDOUS.

MON-THU...THE PSG OF SEVERAL DRY COLD FRONTS THIS WEEK WL BRING
BREEZY CONDS WITH HAZARDOUS SEAS...ESP OVER THE OUTER WATERS.
THERE WILL BE SOME FETCH PROTECTION ALONG THE IMMEDIATE CST DUE TO
PREVALENCE OF A WLY COMPONENT WIND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DESPITE THE PATTERN CHANGE AND SUPPLY OF DRIER AND COOLER AIR OVER
THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL BE LIMITED
IN SCOPE DUE TO COOL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. RH VALUES IN THE LWR
TO MID 30S ARE FORECAST FOR PART OF THE AREA MON AND TUE...WITH
TUE A LITTLE DRIER OVER N CENTRAL FL AND RH BRIEFLY MAKING IT INTO
THE U20S INLAND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  54  38  66  43 /  20   0  10  20
MCO  57  39  66  46 /  10   0  10  20
MLB  58  38  64  44 /  10   0  10  20
VRB  59  38  65  48 /  10   0  10  20
LEE  56  40  67  45 /  10   0  10  20
SFB  57  39  66  44 /  10   0  10  20
ORL  56  42  65  49 /  10   0  10  20
FPR  59  39  64  48 /  10   0  10  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     VOLUSIA COUNTY-INDIAN RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA COUNTY-MARTIN-
     NORTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY-OKEECHOBEE-
     ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-SOUTHERN
     LAKE COUNTY-ST. LUCIE.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR FLAGLER
     BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM-SEBASTIAN
     INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE
     TO SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR FLAGLER BEACH TO
     VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-SEBASTIAN INLET TO
     JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
     SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WEITLICH
LONG TERM....PENDERGRAST





000
FXUS62 KMLB 070159
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
859 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...

...RAIN SHIFTING OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT THEN WINDY/COLDER SUNDAY...
...VERY HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

TONIGHT-SUNDAY...
NOT PLANNING TO MAKE AND SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE CURRENT
FORECAST.  BROAD SURFACE LOW IS STARTING TO FORM ALONG THE
REMNANT INVERTED COASTAL TROUGH THAT WAS NEAR THE TREASURE COAST.
THIS LOW WILL MOVE STEADILY NORTH/NORTHEAST AND STRENGTHEN AS
VIGOROUS TROUGH DIGS INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PENINSULA SUNDAY MORNING.  THE HEAVIEST RAIN THAT WAS OCCURRING IN
WARM ADVECTION ZONE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL PUSH OFFSHORE THE
COAST BEFORE MIDNIGHT...BUT SOME WRAP AROUND RAIN WILL LINGER A
LITTLE LONGER.

COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL SWEEP IN LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST AND INTENSIFIES. EXTENSIVE
LOW CLOUD DECK WILL LINGER WELL INTO SUNDAY MORNING UNTIL THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS TO OUR EAST AND DEEPER MIXING ENSUES.

THE MOST NOTABLE WEATHER HAZARD BEHIND THE LOW WILL BE STRONG AND
GUSTY WINDS.  CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION ON SUNDAY...WITH AN ESPECIALLY
COLD POOL AT 500 MB (MINUS 15 TO 25 CELSIUS)...WILL PRODUCE GUSTY
CONDITIONS TO AROUND 35 MPH. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED
AND A STRAIGHT WIND ADVISORY MIGHT NEED TO BE CONSIDERED.

LOW TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE MID 40S TONIGHT EXCEPT AROUND 50 IN
THE SOUTH.  THESE LOWS MIGHT ACTUALLY OCCUR AFTER SUNRISE...SO WILL
NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE CURRENT NUMBERS EVEN THOUGH MOS/LAV
GUIDANCE IS A BIT HIGHER THAN OUR FORECAST LOWS.  HIGHS SUNDAY WILL
STRUGGLE TO REACH 60 DEGREES OVER MOST OF THE AREA.  IT WILL FEEL
COLDER SUNDAY MORNING DUE TO THE RATHER STRONG COLD ADVECTION...LACK
OF SUNSHINE AND GUSTY WINDS. WIND CHILL READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S WILL LINGER UNTIL LATE MORNING FOR MANY PLACES.

&&

.AVIATION...
LARGE AREA OF RAIN AFFECTING THE AREA ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH/EAST OF INTERSTATE 4.  THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE
BY AROUND MIDNIGHT BUT LIGHTER RAIN SHOULD LINGER ALONG THE COAST A
LITTLE LONGER.  LOW CEILINGS WILL PERSIST INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW CEILINGS AROUND 1000 FEET AGL BUT
OCCASIONAL IFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE.  DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
OFFSHORE WILL DEEPEN AS IT PULLS AWAY LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...

LATEST HRRR MODEL SHOWS 35 KNOT GUST POTENTIAL WILL BE NEAR
THE 20 NAUTICAL MILE MARK FOR A FEW HOURS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...
SO WILL CONTINUE WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NEAR SHORE AND GALE
WARNING OFFSHORE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT/SUNDAY...
SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING JUST OFFSHORE THE TREASURE COAST THIS
EVENING WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE NNE OVERNIGHT. TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW WILL INCREASE WINDS AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH SUSTAINED WINDS INCREASING TO 25-30 KNOTS OFFSHORE
WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO 35-40 KNOTS. GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT
SUNDAY MORNING WITH VERY HAZARDOUS SEA AND WINDY CONDITIONS
OFFSHORE WITH THE GALE WARNING CONTINUING. EXPECT TO TRANSITION
THE GALE TO AN ADVISORY FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS INTO SUNDAY
EVE/NIGHT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 12-13 FT ACROSS THE OFFSHORE GULF
STREAM WATERS SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY
     FOR FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM-
     VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR SEBASTIAN INLET TO
     JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-
     VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR SEBASTIAN
     INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LASCODY
IMPACT WX....SHARP





000
FXUS62 KMLB 070159
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
859 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...

...RAIN SHIFTING OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT THEN WINDY/COLDER SUNDAY...
...VERY HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

TONIGHT-SUNDAY...
NOT PLANNING TO MAKE AND SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE CURRENT
FORECAST.  BROAD SURFACE LOW IS STARTING TO FORM ALONG THE
REMNANT INVERTED COASTAL TROUGH THAT WAS NEAR THE TREASURE COAST.
THIS LOW WILL MOVE STEADILY NORTH/NORTHEAST AND STRENGTHEN AS
VIGOROUS TROUGH DIGS INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PENINSULA SUNDAY MORNING.  THE HEAVIEST RAIN THAT WAS OCCURRING IN
WARM ADVECTION ZONE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL PUSH OFFSHORE THE
COAST BEFORE MIDNIGHT...BUT SOME WRAP AROUND RAIN WILL LINGER A
LITTLE LONGER.

COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL SWEEP IN LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST AND INTENSIFIES. EXTENSIVE
LOW CLOUD DECK WILL LINGER WELL INTO SUNDAY MORNING UNTIL THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS TO OUR EAST AND DEEPER MIXING ENSUES.

THE MOST NOTABLE WEATHER HAZARD BEHIND THE LOW WILL BE STRONG AND
GUSTY WINDS.  CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION ON SUNDAY...WITH AN ESPECIALLY
COLD POOL AT 500 MB (MINUS 15 TO 25 CELSIUS)...WILL PRODUCE GUSTY
CONDITIONS TO AROUND 35 MPH. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED
AND A STRAIGHT WIND ADVISORY MIGHT NEED TO BE CONSIDERED.

LOW TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE MID 40S TONIGHT EXCEPT AROUND 50 IN
THE SOUTH.  THESE LOWS MIGHT ACTUALLY OCCUR AFTER SUNRISE...SO WILL
NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE CURRENT NUMBERS EVEN THOUGH MOS/LAV
GUIDANCE IS A BIT HIGHER THAN OUR FORECAST LOWS.  HIGHS SUNDAY WILL
STRUGGLE TO REACH 60 DEGREES OVER MOST OF THE AREA.  IT WILL FEEL
COLDER SUNDAY MORNING DUE TO THE RATHER STRONG COLD ADVECTION...LACK
OF SUNSHINE AND GUSTY WINDS. WIND CHILL READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S WILL LINGER UNTIL LATE MORNING FOR MANY PLACES.

&&

.AVIATION...
LARGE AREA OF RAIN AFFECTING THE AREA ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH/EAST OF INTERSTATE 4.  THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE
BY AROUND MIDNIGHT BUT LIGHTER RAIN SHOULD LINGER ALONG THE COAST A
LITTLE LONGER.  LOW CEILINGS WILL PERSIST INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW CEILINGS AROUND 1000 FEET AGL BUT
OCCASIONAL IFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE.  DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
OFFSHORE WILL DEEPEN AS IT PULLS AWAY LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...

LATEST HRRR MODEL SHOWS 35 KNOT GUST POTENTIAL WILL BE NEAR
THE 20 NAUTICAL MILE MARK FOR A FEW HOURS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...
SO WILL CONTINUE WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NEAR SHORE AND GALE
WARNING OFFSHORE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT/SUNDAY...
SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING JUST OFFSHORE THE TREASURE COAST THIS
EVENING WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE NNE OVERNIGHT. TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW WILL INCREASE WINDS AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH SUSTAINED WINDS INCREASING TO 25-30 KNOTS OFFSHORE
WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO 35-40 KNOTS. GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT
SUNDAY MORNING WITH VERY HAZARDOUS SEA AND WINDY CONDITIONS
OFFSHORE WITH THE GALE WARNING CONTINUING. EXPECT TO TRANSITION
THE GALE TO AN ADVISORY FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS INTO SUNDAY
EVE/NIGHT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 12-13 FT ACROSS THE OFFSHORE GULF
STREAM WATERS SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY
     FOR FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM-
     VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR SEBASTIAN INLET TO
     JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-
     VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR SEBASTIAN
     INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LASCODY
IMPACT WX....SHARP




000
FXUS62 KMLB 070159
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
859 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...

...RAIN SHIFTING OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT THEN WINDY/COLDER SUNDAY...
...VERY HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

TONIGHT-SUNDAY...
NOT PLANNING TO MAKE AND SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE CURRENT
FORECAST.  BROAD SURFACE LOW IS STARTING TO FORM ALONG THE
REMNANT INVERTED COASTAL TROUGH THAT WAS NEAR THE TREASURE COAST.
THIS LOW WILL MOVE STEADILY NORTH/NORTHEAST AND STRENGTHEN AS
VIGOROUS TROUGH DIGS INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PENINSULA SUNDAY MORNING.  THE HEAVIEST RAIN THAT WAS OCCURRING IN
WARM ADVECTION ZONE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL PUSH OFFSHORE THE
COAST BEFORE MIDNIGHT...BUT SOME WRAP AROUND RAIN WILL LINGER A
LITTLE LONGER.

COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL SWEEP IN LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST AND INTENSIFIES. EXTENSIVE
LOW CLOUD DECK WILL LINGER WELL INTO SUNDAY MORNING UNTIL THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS TO OUR EAST AND DEEPER MIXING ENSUES.

THE MOST NOTABLE WEATHER HAZARD BEHIND THE LOW WILL BE STRONG AND
GUSTY WINDS.  CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION ON SUNDAY...WITH AN ESPECIALLY
COLD POOL AT 500 MB (MINUS 15 TO 25 CELSIUS)...WILL PRODUCE GUSTY
CONDITIONS TO AROUND 35 MPH. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED
AND A STRAIGHT WIND ADVISORY MIGHT NEED TO BE CONSIDERED.

LOW TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE MID 40S TONIGHT EXCEPT AROUND 50 IN
THE SOUTH.  THESE LOWS MIGHT ACTUALLY OCCUR AFTER SUNRISE...SO WILL
NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE CURRENT NUMBERS EVEN THOUGH MOS/LAV
GUIDANCE IS A BIT HIGHER THAN OUR FORECAST LOWS.  HIGHS SUNDAY WILL
STRUGGLE TO REACH 60 DEGREES OVER MOST OF THE AREA.  IT WILL FEEL
COLDER SUNDAY MORNING DUE TO THE RATHER STRONG COLD ADVECTION...LACK
OF SUNSHINE AND GUSTY WINDS. WIND CHILL READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S WILL LINGER UNTIL LATE MORNING FOR MANY PLACES.

&&

.AVIATION...
LARGE AREA OF RAIN AFFECTING THE AREA ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH/EAST OF INTERSTATE 4.  THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE
BY AROUND MIDNIGHT BUT LIGHTER RAIN SHOULD LINGER ALONG THE COAST A
LITTLE LONGER.  LOW CEILINGS WILL PERSIST INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW CEILINGS AROUND 1000 FEET AGL BUT
OCCASIONAL IFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE.  DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
OFFSHORE WILL DEEPEN AS IT PULLS AWAY LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...

LATEST HRRR MODEL SHOWS 35 KNOT GUST POTENTIAL WILL BE NEAR
THE 20 NAUTICAL MILE MARK FOR A FEW HOURS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...
SO WILL CONTINUE WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NEAR SHORE AND GALE
WARNING OFFSHORE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT/SUNDAY...
SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING JUST OFFSHORE THE TREASURE COAST THIS
EVENING WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE NNE OVERNIGHT. TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW WILL INCREASE WINDS AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH SUSTAINED WINDS INCREASING TO 25-30 KNOTS OFFSHORE
WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO 35-40 KNOTS. GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT
SUNDAY MORNING WITH VERY HAZARDOUS SEA AND WINDY CONDITIONS
OFFSHORE WITH THE GALE WARNING CONTINUING. EXPECT TO TRANSITION
THE GALE TO AN ADVISORY FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS INTO SUNDAY
EVE/NIGHT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 12-13 FT ACROSS THE OFFSHORE GULF
STREAM WATERS SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY
     FOR FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM-
     VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR SEBASTIAN INLET TO
     JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-
     VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR SEBASTIAN
     INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LASCODY
IMPACT WX....SHARP





000
FXUS62 KMLB 061927
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
227 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...

...UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT THEN TURNING COOLER SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
...VERY HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...

CURRENTLY...AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN IS BREAKING OUT ACROSS NRN
SECTIONS WITH LOW LVL WARM ADVECTION AND A MID LVL DISTURBANCE IN
THE SW FLOW ALOFT. THIS AREA OF LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
NRN AREAS INTO LATE AFTERNOON AND BEGIN TO FILL IN ACROSS SRN AREAS
NEAR THE DEVELOPING/SHARPENING CSTL TROUGH THAT PUSHED ONSHORE
ACROSS SRN AREAS THIS MORNING. THE SFC TROUGH IS DELINEATING WARMER
TEMPS INTO THE 70S FROM TITUSVILLE SSW TO OKEECHOBEE AND STILL IN
THE 60S WITH N-NE LOW LVL FLOW TO THE WEST OF THE BOUNDARY.

TONIGHT...HIGH RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED AREA-WIDE THIS EVENING AS
POS TILT MID LVL TROUGH MOVES FROM THE NRN GULF COAST TWD THE NE
GULF LATE TONIGHT. ENHANCED LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL ALLOW
MOISTURE DEPTH TO CONTINUE TO DEEPEN OVER THE CNTRL-SRN PENINSULA
WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT OFF THE TREASURE COAST THIS
EVENING. DEEPEST LIFT WILL OCCUR ACROSS SE SECTIONS WHERE SOME
HEAVIER SHOWERS AND DEEPER CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ACROSS OKEECHOBEE
COUNTY AND THE TREASURE COAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT. HEAVIER RAINFALL
AMOUNTS TO A HALF TO ONE INCH CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SRN
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING WITH LOCALLY 1-2 INCHES WITH ANY STRONGER
CONVECTION THAT CAN DEVELOP. MEAGER INSTABILITY WILL MAKE IT NWD TO
MARTIN AND PERHAPS ST LUCIE COUNTY INTO THE VERY EARLY EVENING WHERE
A STRAY LIGHTNING STORM MAY DEVELOP BUT WILL LEAVE CHANCES BELOW 20
PCT MENTIONABLE RANGE AND KEEP THE BULK OF ANY LIGHTNING ACTIVITY
ACTIVITY OVER THE ATLANTIC AND GULF STREAM WATERS. AS THE LOW MOVES
NNE OFF THE GA/SC COAST LATER TONIGHT VERY STRONG AND GUSTY NW WINDS
WILL DEVELOP AND BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY BY SUNRISE. MIN TEMPS WILL
DROP INTO THE 40S OVER THE INTERIOR AND LOWER 50S FOR THE TREASURE
COAST.

SUNDAY...DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SC COAST WILL CONTINUE VERY
WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY WITH LAKE WIND ADVISORY OR WIND
ADVISORIES LIKELY REQUIRED. THE GUSTY NW WINDS WILL USHER IN MUCH
COOLER AIR WITH HIGHS ONLY RECOVERING INTO THE UPPER 50S NORTH AND
LOWER 60S ALONG THE TREASURE COAST. WRAP AROUND LOW STRATUS CLOUDS
WILL AFFECT THE AREA AT SUNRISE BUT SHOULD SEE CLEARING INTO LATE
MORNING AND MID DAY WITH MAINLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THE AFTERNOON.

MON-WED...MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH MID WEEK. A COUPLE REINFORCING COLD FRONTS FORECAST TO CROSS
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINTAINING BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION. WESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF
THE FIRST FRONT MONDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MID 60S...THEN AS
THIS BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DROP TEMPERATURES
INTO THE LOW-MID 40S MON NIGHT. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF
THE 50S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TUE WITH STRONGER COLD AIR ADVECTION
PRODUCING LOWS IN THE MID 30S OVER FAR NRN LAKE/VOLUSIA COUNTIES
AND IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT MID 40S
TREASURE COAST. FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME BUT NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS COULD BRIEFLY REACH FREEZING ON
WED MORNING WHICH LOOKS LIKE THE COLDEST MORNING.

DRY CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED FROM EARLY TO MID WEEK...BUT A
STRONG SOUTHERN JET STREAM MAY HELP GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE MON NIGHT DESPITE LIMITED MOISTURE. HAVE ADDED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA MONDAY EVENING...OTHERWISE
RAIN CHANCES REMAIN OUT OF THE REST OF THE FORECAST.

THU-FRI (PREVIOUS)...DOMINANT UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S.
WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHWARD INTO LATE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GULF WILL BUILD EASTWARD AND ACROSS FL INTO THU BEFORE LIFTING
FARTHER NORTHEAST FRI. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL
MODIFICATION IN TEMPS INTO LATE WEEK WITH HIGHS CLOSER TO NORMAL
INDICATED BY FRI.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CIGS EXPECTED INTO LATE AFTN WITH DEVELOPMENT OF LOWER
CIGS ACROSS THE AREA IN THE 1-2 KFT BY EARLY EVENING. SCT-NMRS SHRA
IN THE 21Z-03Z TIME FRAME EXPECTED WITH HEAVIER SHRA IN THE KVRB-
KSUA CORRIDOR THIS EVENING. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL
DEEPEN INTO LATE TONIGHT AS IT PULLS AWAY FROM THE AREA BUT GUSTY NW
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AFT 08Z AND INCREASE FURTHER AFTER
SUNRISE WITH SOME GUSTS TO 27-30 KNOTS PSBL ON SUNDAY MORNING. LOWER
WRAP AROUND CIGS SHOULD BECOME SCATTERED INTO MID DAY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING JUST OFFSHORE THE TREASURE COAST THIS
EVENING WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE NNE OVERNIGHT. TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW WILL INCREASE WINDS AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH SUSTAINED WINDS INCREASING TO 25-30 KNOTS OFFSHORE
WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO 35-40 KNOTS. GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT
SUNDAY MORNING WITH VERY HAZARDOUS SEA AND WINDY CONDITIONS
OFFSHORE WITH THE GALE WARNING CONTINUING. EXPECT TO TRANSITION
THE GALE TO AN ADVISORY FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS INTO SUNDAY
EVE/NIGHT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 12-13 FT ACROSS THE OFFSHORE GULF
STREAM WATERS SUNDAY MORNING.

MON-THU...HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO
EARLY-MID WEEK AS A COUPLE REINFORCING COLD FRONTS MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA KEEPING WINDS AND SEAS ELEVATED. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BE
STRONG MON-WED THEN AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER NORTH FL THU
WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTH AND DECREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SEAS
WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE ESP IN THE GULF STREAM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  47  58  39  65 /  70  10   0  10
MCO  46  59  40  65 /  60  10   0  10
MLB  49  59  40  65 /  80  10   0  10
VRB  51  61  39  65 /  80  10   0  10
LEE  42  58  40  65 /  60   0   0  10
SFB  47  60  40  65 /  60  10   0  10
ORL  47  59  42  64 /  60  10   0  10
FPR  51  60  39  64 /  80  10   0  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY
     FOR FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM-
     VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR SEBASTIAN INLET TO
     JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-
     VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR SEBASTIAN
     INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOLKMER
LONG TERM....KELLY




000
FXUS62 KMLB 061927
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
227 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...

...UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT THEN TURNING COOLER SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
...VERY HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...

CURRENTLY...AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN IS BREAKING OUT ACROSS NRN
SECTIONS WITH LOW LVL WARM ADVECTION AND A MID LVL DISTURBANCE IN
THE SW FLOW ALOFT. THIS AREA OF LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
NRN AREAS INTO LATE AFTERNOON AND BEGIN TO FILL IN ACROSS SRN AREAS
NEAR THE DEVELOPING/SHARPENING CSTL TROUGH THAT PUSHED ONSHORE
ACROSS SRN AREAS THIS MORNING. THE SFC TROUGH IS DELINEATING WARMER
TEMPS INTO THE 70S FROM TITUSVILLE SSW TO OKEECHOBEE AND STILL IN
THE 60S WITH N-NE LOW LVL FLOW TO THE WEST OF THE BOUNDARY.

TONIGHT...HIGH RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED AREA-WIDE THIS EVENING AS
POS TILT MID LVL TROUGH MOVES FROM THE NRN GULF COAST TWD THE NE
GULF LATE TONIGHT. ENHANCED LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL ALLOW
MOISTURE DEPTH TO CONTINUE TO DEEPEN OVER THE CNTRL-SRN PENINSULA
WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT OFF THE TREASURE COAST THIS
EVENING. DEEPEST LIFT WILL OCCUR ACROSS SE SECTIONS WHERE SOME
HEAVIER SHOWERS AND DEEPER CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ACROSS OKEECHOBEE
COUNTY AND THE TREASURE COAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT. HEAVIER RAINFALL
AMOUNTS TO A HALF TO ONE INCH CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SRN
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING WITH LOCALLY 1-2 INCHES WITH ANY STRONGER
CONVECTION THAT CAN DEVELOP. MEAGER INSTABILITY WILL MAKE IT NWD TO
MARTIN AND PERHAPS ST LUCIE COUNTY INTO THE VERY EARLY EVENING WHERE
A STRAY LIGHTNING STORM MAY DEVELOP BUT WILL LEAVE CHANCES BELOW 20
PCT MENTIONABLE RANGE AND KEEP THE BULK OF ANY LIGHTNING ACTIVITY
ACTIVITY OVER THE ATLANTIC AND GULF STREAM WATERS. AS THE LOW MOVES
NNE OFF THE GA/SC COAST LATER TONIGHT VERY STRONG AND GUSTY NW WINDS
WILL DEVELOP AND BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY BY SUNRISE. MIN TEMPS WILL
DROP INTO THE 40S OVER THE INTERIOR AND LOWER 50S FOR THE TREASURE
COAST.

SUNDAY...DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SC COAST WILL CONTINUE VERY
WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY WITH LAKE WIND ADVISORY OR WIND
ADVISORIES LIKELY REQUIRED. THE GUSTY NW WINDS WILL USHER IN MUCH
COOLER AIR WITH HIGHS ONLY RECOVERING INTO THE UPPER 50S NORTH AND
LOWER 60S ALONG THE TREASURE COAST. WRAP AROUND LOW STRATUS CLOUDS
WILL AFFECT THE AREA AT SUNRISE BUT SHOULD SEE CLEARING INTO LATE
MORNING AND MID DAY WITH MAINLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THE AFTERNOON.

MON-WED...MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH MID WEEK. A COUPLE REINFORCING COLD FRONTS FORECAST TO CROSS
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINTAINING BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION. WESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF
THE FIRST FRONT MONDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MID 60S...THEN AS
THIS BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DROP TEMPERATURES
INTO THE LOW-MID 40S MON NIGHT. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF
THE 50S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TUE WITH STRONGER COLD AIR ADVECTION
PRODUCING LOWS IN THE MID 30S OVER FAR NRN LAKE/VOLUSIA COUNTIES
AND IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT MID 40S
TREASURE COAST. FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME BUT NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS COULD BRIEFLY REACH FREEZING ON
WED MORNING WHICH LOOKS LIKE THE COLDEST MORNING.

DRY CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED FROM EARLY TO MID WEEK...BUT A
STRONG SOUTHERN JET STREAM MAY HELP GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE MON NIGHT DESPITE LIMITED MOISTURE. HAVE ADDED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA MONDAY EVENING...OTHERWISE
RAIN CHANCES REMAIN OUT OF THE REST OF THE FORECAST.

THU-FRI (PREVIOUS)...DOMINANT UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S.
WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHWARD INTO LATE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GULF WILL BUILD EASTWARD AND ACROSS FL INTO THU BEFORE LIFTING
FARTHER NORTHEAST FRI. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL
MODIFICATION IN TEMPS INTO LATE WEEK WITH HIGHS CLOSER TO NORMAL
INDICATED BY FRI.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CIGS EXPECTED INTO LATE AFTN WITH DEVELOPMENT OF LOWER
CIGS ACROSS THE AREA IN THE 1-2 KFT BY EARLY EVENING. SCT-NMRS SHRA
IN THE 21Z-03Z TIME FRAME EXPECTED WITH HEAVIER SHRA IN THE KVRB-
KSUA CORRIDOR THIS EVENING. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL
DEEPEN INTO LATE TONIGHT AS IT PULLS AWAY FROM THE AREA BUT GUSTY NW
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AFT 08Z AND INCREASE FURTHER AFTER
SUNRISE WITH SOME GUSTS TO 27-30 KNOTS PSBL ON SUNDAY MORNING. LOWER
WRAP AROUND CIGS SHOULD BECOME SCATTERED INTO MID DAY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING JUST OFFSHORE THE TREASURE COAST THIS
EVENING WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE NNE OVERNIGHT. TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW WILL INCREASE WINDS AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH SUSTAINED WINDS INCREASING TO 25-30 KNOTS OFFSHORE
WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO 35-40 KNOTS. GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT
SUNDAY MORNING WITH VERY HAZARDOUS SEA AND WINDY CONDITIONS
OFFSHORE WITH THE GALE WARNING CONTINUING. EXPECT TO TRANSITION
THE GALE TO AN ADVISORY FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS INTO SUNDAY
EVE/NIGHT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 12-13 FT ACROSS THE OFFSHORE GULF
STREAM WATERS SUNDAY MORNING.

MON-THU...HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO
EARLY-MID WEEK AS A COUPLE REINFORCING COLD FRONTS MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA KEEPING WINDS AND SEAS ELEVATED. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BE
STRONG MON-WED THEN AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER NORTH FL THU
WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTH AND DECREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SEAS
WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE ESP IN THE GULF STREAM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  47  58  39  65 /  70  10   0  10
MCO  46  59  40  65 /  60  10   0  10
MLB  49  59  40  65 /  80  10   0  10
VRB  51  61  39  65 /  80  10   0  10
LEE  42  58  40  65 /  60   0   0  10
SFB  47  60  40  65 /  60  10   0  10
ORL  47  59  42  64 /  60  10   0  10
FPR  51  60  39  64 /  80  10   0  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY
     FOR FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM-
     VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR SEBASTIAN INLET TO
     JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-
     VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR SEBASTIAN
     INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOLKMER
LONG TERM....KELLY





000
FXUS62 KMLB 061451 AAA
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
951 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE FOR MORNING UPDATE INCLUDING
ADJUSTING SKY COVER SOME BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS. STILL
APPEARS MOST AREAS WILL HAVE CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS FOR MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON AS MID AND HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING TROUGH ACROSS THE GULF. NUDGED SHOWER CHANCES UP
SLIGHTLY TO 40 PCT NRN AREAS BASED ON EXPECTED COVERAGE INCREASE
FROM 4 PM TO 7 PM TIME FRAME. ALSO CONSIDERED VERY LOW THUNDER
RISK THIS EVENING FOR MARTIN COUNTY AREA. AT THIS POINT...HAVE
ADDED THUNDER TO THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC AND GULF STREAM WATERS
WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY SHOULD RESIDE AS TROUGH APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S FOR NRN SECTIONS AND INTO THE
LOWER 70S FOR SRN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON INCLUDING OKEECHOBEE COUNTY
AND THE TREASURE COAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TODAY-TONIGHT...EXPECT MANY FORECAST CHALLENGES OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS WITH SUBTLE COSMETIC UPDATES POSSIBLE FOR VARIOUS PARAMETERS.
COLD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF COAST STATES AND SOUTHEAST U.S.
WILL WEAKEN AND GET SQUEEZED NORTHEASTWARD. THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CURRENTLY RESIDES OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS. LATE
TODAY AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP SOMEWHERE NEAR
SOUTHEAST FLORIDA/NORTHERN BAHAMAS. TONIGHT THIS FEATURE WILL BEGIN
TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AND STRENGTHEN. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS FEATURE
WILL BE INDUCED BY A VIGOROUS/STRONG MID-LEVEL TROUGH PRESENTLY OVER
TEXAS. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH GULF DURING THE DAY
AND ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA LATE OVERNIGHT. FURTHER ALOFT A
FAIRLY STRONG 120-130 KNOT UPPER JET WILL STREAM OVER NORTH-CENTRAL
FLORIDA. DEEPEST MOISTURE (PWAT VALUES) IN UPWARDS OF 1.60 INCHES
WHILE STAY LIMITED TO THE TREASURE COAST AND SOUTHWARD. WHILE
DYNAMICS WILL BE STRONG WITH THIS SYSTEM THERMODYNAMICS WILL BE MUCH
LESS AS INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN LIMITED AND TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINT
VALUES IN THE LOWER LEVELS LOW. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THUNDER MENTION
ABSENT FROM THE FORECAST...THOUGH GREATEST CHANCES MAY EXIST OVER
THE GULF STREAM AND FURTHER OFFSHORE TONIGHT.

PLACEMENT/STRENGTH OF THE DEVELOPING LOW WILL BE KEY IN SEVERAL KEY
FORECAST PARAMETER FEATURES: TEMPERATURE, WIND DIRECTION/SPEED AND
GREATEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES/AMOUNTS. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP LIGHT
RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH 00Z/7PM WITH CHANCES GRADUALLY
INCREASING UP THROUGH THIS TIME. WILL GO WITH 30 PERCENT VALUES
CENTRAL OSCEOLA-CENTRAL BREVARD NORTHWARD AND 40 TO 50 PERCENT
FURTHER SOUTHWARD. FUTURE SHIFTS CAN ALTER THESE NUMBERS AS
CONFIDENCE/RADAR TRENDS DICTATE. FOR TONIGHT WILL GO WITH 50 TO 60
PERCENT FOR SHOWERY PRECIPITATION FROM VOLUSIA COUNTY SOUTHWESTWARD
THROUGH OSCEOLA COUNTY. EAST AND SOUTH OF THESE AREAS WILL BUMP UP
CHANCES TO 70 TO 90 PERCENT. WILL MONITOR FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL ACROSS THE TREASURE COAST. RANGE FOR HIGHEST RAINFALL
CHANCES AREAWIDE APPEARS TO BE BETWEEN 00Z-06Z (7PM-1AM).

NORTHERLY EARLY MORNING WINDS INLAND FROM THE COAST WILL VEER TO NNE-
NE THROUGHOUT THE DAY THEN BACK TO NWRLY THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. NE
MORNING WINDS ALONG THE COAST ARE FORECAST TO BACK TO NWRLY AS WELL
TONIGHT. GENERALLY LIGHT WIND SPEEDS TODAY WILL INCREASE LATE THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT AREAWIDE AS THE LOW BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN AND PULL
AWAY SLOWLY FROM THE AREA. WIND SPEEDS LIKELY TO APPROACH 20 TO 25
MPH WITH FREQUENT HIGHER GUSTS LATE TONIGHT.

TEMPERATURES MAY BE INTERESTING AS WELL WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER
AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES RAMPING UPWARD. NORTH OF I-4 IN THE L-M60S
WITH U60S/L70S SOUTHWARD...EXCEPT POSSIBLE M70S ALONG THE MARTIN
COUNTY COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...MID LVL CIGS MOST IN THE 050-070 RANGE WILL CONTINUE
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WITH SHRA COVERAGE INCREASING FROM 19Z-23Z
MAINLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM KMCO-KTIX. SHOWER COVERAGE SHOULD
PEAK THIS EVENING 00Z-04Z THIS EVENING AS S/W TROUGH APPROACHES
AND COULD SEE SOME LOCALLY HEAVIER SHOWERS IN THE KVRB-KSUA
CORRIDOR. INCREASINGLY GUSTY NW WIND AFT 08Z TONIGHT WITH GUSTS
TO 25 KNOTS PSBL ALONG THE COAST BEHIND THE LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP AND DEEPEN INTO SUNDAY OFFSHORE.

&&

.MARINE...NE WINDS 10-15 KNOTS WILL VEER TO EASTERLY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SEAS 4-5 FT NEAR SHORE TO 5-6 FT OFFSHORE. FOR MID
MORNING UPDATE WILL TRANSITION SCA FOR SEAS TO AN EXERCISE CAUTION.
STRONGER WINDS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT BEHIND LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING
OFFSHORE. NO CHANGES FOR TONIGHTS HEADLINES...WITH GALE WARNING
FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY
     FOR FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM-
     VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR SEBASTIAN INLET TO
     JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-
     VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR SEBASTIAN
     INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...VOLKMER
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX....KELLY





000
FXUS62 KMLB 061451 AAA
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
951 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE FOR MORNING UPDATE INCLUDING
ADJUSTING SKY COVER SOME BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS. STILL
APPEARS MOST AREAS WILL HAVE CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS FOR MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON AS MID AND HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING TROUGH ACROSS THE GULF. NUDGED SHOWER CHANCES UP
SLIGHTLY TO 40 PCT NRN AREAS BASED ON EXPECTED COVERAGE INCREASE
FROM 4 PM TO 7 PM TIME FRAME. ALSO CONSIDERED VERY LOW THUNDER
RISK THIS EVENING FOR MARTIN COUNTY AREA. AT THIS POINT...HAVE
ADDED THUNDER TO THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC AND GULF STREAM WATERS
WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY SHOULD RESIDE AS TROUGH APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S FOR NRN SECTIONS AND INTO THE
LOWER 70S FOR SRN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON INCLUDING OKEECHOBEE COUNTY
AND THE TREASURE COAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TODAY-TONIGHT...EXPECT MANY FORECAST CHALLENGES OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS WITH SUBTLE COSMETIC UPDATES POSSIBLE FOR VARIOUS PARAMETERS.
COLD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF COAST STATES AND SOUTHEAST U.S.
WILL WEAKEN AND GET SQUEEZED NORTHEASTWARD. THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CURRENTLY RESIDES OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS. LATE
TODAY AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP SOMEWHERE NEAR
SOUTHEAST FLORIDA/NORTHERN BAHAMAS. TONIGHT THIS FEATURE WILL BEGIN
TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AND STRENGTHEN. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS FEATURE
WILL BE INDUCED BY A VIGOROUS/STRONG MID-LEVEL TROUGH PRESENTLY OVER
TEXAS. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH GULF DURING THE DAY
AND ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA LATE OVERNIGHT. FURTHER ALOFT A
FAIRLY STRONG 120-130 KNOT UPPER JET WILL STREAM OVER NORTH-CENTRAL
FLORIDA. DEEPEST MOISTURE (PWAT VALUES) IN UPWARDS OF 1.60 INCHES
WHILE STAY LIMITED TO THE TREASURE COAST AND SOUTHWARD. WHILE
DYNAMICS WILL BE STRONG WITH THIS SYSTEM THERMODYNAMICS WILL BE MUCH
LESS AS INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN LIMITED AND TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINT
VALUES IN THE LOWER LEVELS LOW. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THUNDER MENTION
ABSENT FROM THE FORECAST...THOUGH GREATEST CHANCES MAY EXIST OVER
THE GULF STREAM AND FURTHER OFFSHORE TONIGHT.

PLACEMENT/STRENGTH OF THE DEVELOPING LOW WILL BE KEY IN SEVERAL KEY
FORECAST PARAMETER FEATURES: TEMPERATURE, WIND DIRECTION/SPEED AND
GREATEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES/AMOUNTS. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP LIGHT
RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH 00Z/7PM WITH CHANCES GRADUALLY
INCREASING UP THROUGH THIS TIME. WILL GO WITH 30 PERCENT VALUES
CENTRAL OSCEOLA-CENTRAL BREVARD NORTHWARD AND 40 TO 50 PERCENT
FURTHER SOUTHWARD. FUTURE SHIFTS CAN ALTER THESE NUMBERS AS
CONFIDENCE/RADAR TRENDS DICTATE. FOR TONIGHT WILL GO WITH 50 TO 60
PERCENT FOR SHOWERY PRECIPITATION FROM VOLUSIA COUNTY SOUTHWESTWARD
THROUGH OSCEOLA COUNTY. EAST AND SOUTH OF THESE AREAS WILL BUMP UP
CHANCES TO 70 TO 90 PERCENT. WILL MONITOR FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL ACROSS THE TREASURE COAST. RANGE FOR HIGHEST RAINFALL
CHANCES AREAWIDE APPEARS TO BE BETWEEN 00Z-06Z (7PM-1AM).

NORTHERLY EARLY MORNING WINDS INLAND FROM THE COAST WILL VEER TO NNE-
NE THROUGHOUT THE DAY THEN BACK TO NWRLY THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. NE
MORNING WINDS ALONG THE COAST ARE FORECAST TO BACK TO NWRLY AS WELL
TONIGHT. GENERALLY LIGHT WIND SPEEDS TODAY WILL INCREASE LATE THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT AREAWIDE AS THE LOW BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN AND PULL
AWAY SLOWLY FROM THE AREA. WIND SPEEDS LIKELY TO APPROACH 20 TO 25
MPH WITH FREQUENT HIGHER GUSTS LATE TONIGHT.

TEMPERATURES MAY BE INTERESTING AS WELL WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER
AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES RAMPING UPWARD. NORTH OF I-4 IN THE L-M60S
WITH U60S/L70S SOUTHWARD...EXCEPT POSSIBLE M70S ALONG THE MARTIN
COUNTY COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...MID LVL CIGS MOST IN THE 050-070 RANGE WILL CONTINUE
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WITH SHRA COVERAGE INCREASING FROM 19Z-23Z
MAINLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM KMCO-KTIX. SHOWER COVERAGE SHOULD
PEAK THIS EVENING 00Z-04Z THIS EVENING AS S/W TROUGH APPROACHES
AND COULD SEE SOME LOCALLY HEAVIER SHOWERS IN THE KVRB-KSUA
CORRIDOR. INCREASINGLY GUSTY NW WIND AFT 08Z TONIGHT WITH GUSTS
TO 25 KNOTS PSBL ALONG THE COAST BEHIND THE LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP AND DEEPEN INTO SUNDAY OFFSHORE.

&&

.MARINE...NE WINDS 10-15 KNOTS WILL VEER TO EASTERLY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SEAS 4-5 FT NEAR SHORE TO 5-6 FT OFFSHORE. FOR MID
MORNING UPDATE WILL TRANSITION SCA FOR SEAS TO AN EXERCISE CAUTION.
STRONGER WINDS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT BEHIND LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING
OFFSHORE. NO CHANGES FOR TONIGHTS HEADLINES...WITH GALE WARNING
FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY
     FOR FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM-
     VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR SEBASTIAN INLET TO
     JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-
     VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR SEBASTIAN
     INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...VOLKMER
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX....KELLY




000
FXUS62 KMLB 061451 AAA
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
951 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE FOR MORNING UPDATE INCLUDING
ADJUSTING SKY COVER SOME BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS. STILL
APPEARS MOST AREAS WILL HAVE CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS FOR MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON AS MID AND HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING TROUGH ACROSS THE GULF. NUDGED SHOWER CHANCES UP
SLIGHTLY TO 40 PCT NRN AREAS BASED ON EXPECTED COVERAGE INCREASE
FROM 4 PM TO 7 PM TIME FRAME. ALSO CONSIDERED VERY LOW THUNDER
RISK THIS EVENING FOR MARTIN COUNTY AREA. AT THIS POINT...HAVE
ADDED THUNDER TO THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC AND GULF STREAM WATERS
WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY SHOULD RESIDE AS TROUGH APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S FOR NRN SECTIONS AND INTO THE
LOWER 70S FOR SRN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON INCLUDING OKEECHOBEE COUNTY
AND THE TREASURE COAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TODAY-TONIGHT...EXPECT MANY FORECAST CHALLENGES OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS WITH SUBTLE COSMETIC UPDATES POSSIBLE FOR VARIOUS PARAMETERS.
COLD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF COAST STATES AND SOUTHEAST U.S.
WILL WEAKEN AND GET SQUEEZED NORTHEASTWARD. THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CURRENTLY RESIDES OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS. LATE
TODAY AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP SOMEWHERE NEAR
SOUTHEAST FLORIDA/NORTHERN BAHAMAS. TONIGHT THIS FEATURE WILL BEGIN
TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AND STRENGTHEN. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS FEATURE
WILL BE INDUCED BY A VIGOROUS/STRONG MID-LEVEL TROUGH PRESENTLY OVER
TEXAS. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH GULF DURING THE DAY
AND ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA LATE OVERNIGHT. FURTHER ALOFT A
FAIRLY STRONG 120-130 KNOT UPPER JET WILL STREAM OVER NORTH-CENTRAL
FLORIDA. DEEPEST MOISTURE (PWAT VALUES) IN UPWARDS OF 1.60 INCHES
WHILE STAY LIMITED TO THE TREASURE COAST AND SOUTHWARD. WHILE
DYNAMICS WILL BE STRONG WITH THIS SYSTEM THERMODYNAMICS WILL BE MUCH
LESS AS INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN LIMITED AND TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINT
VALUES IN THE LOWER LEVELS LOW. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THUNDER MENTION
ABSENT FROM THE FORECAST...THOUGH GREATEST CHANCES MAY EXIST OVER
THE GULF STREAM AND FURTHER OFFSHORE TONIGHT.

PLACEMENT/STRENGTH OF THE DEVELOPING LOW WILL BE KEY IN SEVERAL KEY
FORECAST PARAMETER FEATURES: TEMPERATURE, WIND DIRECTION/SPEED AND
GREATEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES/AMOUNTS. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP LIGHT
RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH 00Z/7PM WITH CHANCES GRADUALLY
INCREASING UP THROUGH THIS TIME. WILL GO WITH 30 PERCENT VALUES
CENTRAL OSCEOLA-CENTRAL BREVARD NORTHWARD AND 40 TO 50 PERCENT
FURTHER SOUTHWARD. FUTURE SHIFTS CAN ALTER THESE NUMBERS AS
CONFIDENCE/RADAR TRENDS DICTATE. FOR TONIGHT WILL GO WITH 50 TO 60
PERCENT FOR SHOWERY PRECIPITATION FROM VOLUSIA COUNTY SOUTHWESTWARD
THROUGH OSCEOLA COUNTY. EAST AND SOUTH OF THESE AREAS WILL BUMP UP
CHANCES TO 70 TO 90 PERCENT. WILL MONITOR FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL ACROSS THE TREASURE COAST. RANGE FOR HIGHEST RAINFALL
CHANCES AREAWIDE APPEARS TO BE BETWEEN 00Z-06Z (7PM-1AM).

NORTHERLY EARLY MORNING WINDS INLAND FROM THE COAST WILL VEER TO NNE-
NE THROUGHOUT THE DAY THEN BACK TO NWRLY THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. NE
MORNING WINDS ALONG THE COAST ARE FORECAST TO BACK TO NWRLY AS WELL
TONIGHT. GENERALLY LIGHT WIND SPEEDS TODAY WILL INCREASE LATE THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT AREAWIDE AS THE LOW BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN AND PULL
AWAY SLOWLY FROM THE AREA. WIND SPEEDS LIKELY TO APPROACH 20 TO 25
MPH WITH FREQUENT HIGHER GUSTS LATE TONIGHT.

TEMPERATURES MAY BE INTERESTING AS WELL WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER
AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES RAMPING UPWARD. NORTH OF I-4 IN THE L-M60S
WITH U60S/L70S SOUTHWARD...EXCEPT POSSIBLE M70S ALONG THE MARTIN
COUNTY COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...MID LVL CIGS MOST IN THE 050-070 RANGE WILL CONTINUE
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WITH SHRA COVERAGE INCREASING FROM 19Z-23Z
MAINLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM KMCO-KTIX. SHOWER COVERAGE SHOULD
PEAK THIS EVENING 00Z-04Z THIS EVENING AS S/W TROUGH APPROACHES
AND COULD SEE SOME LOCALLY HEAVIER SHOWERS IN THE KVRB-KSUA
CORRIDOR. INCREASINGLY GUSTY NW WIND AFT 08Z TONIGHT WITH GUSTS
TO 25 KNOTS PSBL ALONG THE COAST BEHIND THE LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP AND DEEPEN INTO SUNDAY OFFSHORE.

&&

.MARINE...NE WINDS 10-15 KNOTS WILL VEER TO EASTERLY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SEAS 4-5 FT NEAR SHORE TO 5-6 FT OFFSHORE. FOR MID
MORNING UPDATE WILL TRANSITION SCA FOR SEAS TO AN EXERCISE CAUTION.
STRONGER WINDS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT BEHIND LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING
OFFSHORE. NO CHANGES FOR TONIGHTS HEADLINES...WITH GALE WARNING
FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY
     FOR FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM-
     VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR SEBASTIAN INLET TO
     JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-
     VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR SEBASTIAN
     INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...VOLKMER
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX....KELLY





000
FXUS62 KMLB 060841
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
341 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...

...UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT THEN TURNING COOLER SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
...DETERIORATING MARINE CONDITIONS AGAIN TONIGHT...

CURRENT...QUITE AN INTERESTING TEMPERATURE PROFILE ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE EAST COAST AS COASTAL TROUGHING DEVELOPS HERE. U40S/L50S
WHERE AN OFFSHORE COMPONENT EXISTS AND U50S UP TO 70 DEGREES (SUA)
WHERE WINDS HAVE BECOME ONSHORE. IN COMPARISON OKEECHOBEE HAS FALLEN
TO 50 DEGREES. FURTHER INTO THE INTERIOR TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE
U40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES. STILL MAY SEE A FEW LOWEST WIND CHILL
READINGS AROUND 40 DEGREES EARLY THIS MORNING NORTHWEST OF I-4. VERY
DRY IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS VIEWED ON WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND OBSERVED FROM BOTH KTBW/KXMR 00Z EVENING
SOUNDINGS. INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD
DECK OFF OF THE EAST COAST BUT THESE CEILINGS OF 4.0-6.0 KFT ARE
HAVING A HARD TIME PENETRATING INLAND THUS FAR THIS MORNING.
NEXRAD 88D BEGINNING TO SHOW SOME SPITS/SPRINKLES OFF OF THE
TREASURE COAST AS A SHALLOW MODIFICATION OF THE LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS
TAKES PLACE DUE TO ENHANCED COASTAL CONVERGENCE INVOF THE
DEVELOPING THERMALLY INDUCED INVERTED TROUGH.

TODAY-TONIGHT...EXPECT MANY FORECAST CHALLENGES OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS WITH SUBTLE COSMETIC UPDATES POSSIBLE FOR VARIOUS PARAMETERS.
COLD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF COAST STATES AND SOUTHEAST U.S.
WILL WEAKEN AND GET SQUEEZED NORTHEASTWARD. THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CURRENTLY RESIDES OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS. LATE
TODAY AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP SOMEWHERE NEAR
SOUTHEAST FLORIDA/NORTHERN BAHAMAS. TONIGHT THIS FEATURE WILL BEGIN
TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AND STRENGTHEN. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS FEATURE
WILL BE INDUCED BY A VIGOROUS/STRONG MID-LEVEL TROUGH PRESENTLY OVER
TEXAS. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH GULF DURING THE DAY
AND ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA LATE OVERNIGHT. FURTHER ALOFT A
FAIRLY STRONG 120-130 KNOT UPPER JET WILL STREAM OVER NORTH-CENTRAL
FLORIDA. DEEPEST MOISTURE (PWAT VALUES) IN UPWARDS OF 1.60 INCHES
WHILE STAY LIMITED TO THE TREASURE COAST AND SOUTHWARD. WHILE
DYNAMICS WILL BE STRONG WITH THIS SYSTEM THERMODYNAMICS WILL BE MUCH
LESS AS INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN LIMITED AND TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINT
VALUES IN THE LOWER LEVELS LOW. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THUNDER MENTION
ABSENT FROM THE FORECAST...THOUGH GREATEST CHANCES MAY EXIST OVER
THE GULF STREAM AND FURTHER OFFSHORE TONIGHT.

PLACEMENT/STRENGTH OF THE DEVELOPING LOW WILL BE KEY IN SEVERAL KEY
FORECAST PARAMETER FEATURES: TEMPERATURE, WIND DIRECTION/SPEED AND
GREATEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES/AMOUNTS. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP LIGHT
RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH 00Z/7PM WITH CHANCES GRADUALLY
INCREASING UP THROUGH THIS TIME. WILL GO WITH 30 PERCENT VALUES
CENTRAL OSCEOLA-CENTRAL BREVARD NORTHWARD AND 40 TO 50 PERCENT
FURTHER SOUTHWARD. FUTURE SHIFTS CAN ALTER THESE NUMBERS AS
CONFIDENCE/RADAR TRENDS DICTATE. FOR TONIGHT WILL GO WITH 50 TO 60
PERCENT FOR SHOWERY PRECIPITATION FROM VOLUSIA COUNTY SOUTHWESTWARD
THROUGH OSCEOLA COUNTY. EAST AND SOUTH OF THESE AREAS WILL BUMP UP
CHANCES TO 70 TO 90 PERCENT. WILL MONITOR FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL ACROSS THE TREASURE COAST. RANGE FOR HIGHEST RAINFALL
CHANCES AREAWIDE APPEARS TO BE BETWEEN 00Z-06Z (7PM-1AM).

NORTHERLY EARLY MORNING WINDS INLAND FROM THE COAST WILL VEER TO NNE-
NE THROUGHOUT THE DAY THEN BACK TO NWRLY THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. NE
MORNING WINDS ALONG THE COAST ARE FORECAST TO BACK TO NWRLY AS WELL
TONIGHT. GENERALLY LIGHT WIND SPEEDS TODAY WILL INCREASE LATE THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT AREAWIDE AS THE LOW BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN AND PULL
AWAY SLOWLY FROM THE AREA. WIND SPEEDS LIKELY TO APPROACH 20 TO 25
MPH WITH FREQUENT HIGHER GUSTS LATE TONIGHT.

TEMPERATURES MAY BE INTERESTING AS WELL WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER
AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES RAMPING UPWARD. NORTH OF I-4 IN THE L-M60S
WITH U60S/L70S SOUTHWARD...EXCEPT POSSIBLE M70S ALONG THE MARTIN
COUNTY COAST.

SUN...STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFFSHORE WILL BUILD TOWARD
THE NORTHEAST...LEAVING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA IN
ITS WAKE. THIS WILL GENERATE A WINDY NORTHWEST FLOW OVER CENTRAL
FLORIDA TRANSPORTING A DRY AND COLDER AIRMASS SOUTHWARD. ANY
LINGERING CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST WILL DECREASE INTO THE MORNING WITH
SHOWERS LIMITED TO THE COASTAL WATERS BY DAYBREAK. HIGHS WILL BE A
GOOD 13-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...ONLY REACHING THE UPPER 50S TO LOW
60S OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. SFC WINDS WILL THEN RELAX INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.

MON-WED...MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH MID WEEK. A COUPLE REINFORCING COLD FRONTS FORECAST TO CROSS
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINTAINING BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION. WESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF
THE FIRST FRONT MONDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MID 60S...THEN AS
THIS BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DROP TEMPERATURES
INTO THE LOW-MID 40S MON NIGHT. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF
THE 50S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TUE WITH STRONGER COLD AIR ADVECTION
TUE NIGHT PRODUCING LOWS IN THE MID 30S OVER FAR NRN LAKE/VOLUSIA
COUNTIES AND IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S FARTHER SOUTH. WILL HAVE TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS IN THE GUIDANCE HOWEVER AS NEAR FREEZING
TEMPS MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO
EARLY WED MORNING.

DRY CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED FROM EARLY TO MID WEEK...BUT A
STRONG SOUTHERN JET STREAM MAY HELP GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE MON NIGHT DESPITE LIMITED MOISTURE. HAVE ADDED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA MONDAY EVENING...OTHERWISE
RAIN CHANCES REMAIN OUT OF THE REST OF THE FORECAST.

THU-FRI...DOMINANT UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL GRADUALLY
LIFT NORTHWARD INTO LATE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF WILL
BUILD EASTWARD AND ACROSS FL INTO THU BEFORE LIFTING FARTHER
NORTHEAST FRI. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE
IN TEMPS FORECAST BY THE MODELS INTO LATE WEEK WITH HIGHS CLOSER TO
NORMAL INDICATED BY FRI.

&&

.AVIATION...BKN-OVC040-060 MARINE STRATOCU DECK ALONG THE EAST COAST
EARLY THIS MORNING HAVING SOME TROUBLE SPREADING INLAND...BUT
BELIEVE IT INEVITABLY WILL LATER THIS MORNING. INVERTED COASTAL
TROUGH/CONVERGENCE DEVELOPING ALONG THE EAST COAST WITH VERY SLOW
MODIFICATION OF THE LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS. EXPECT SPRINKLES AND LOW-
TOPPED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND GRADUALLY
SPREAD INLAND DURING THE DAY. AN APPROACHING STRONG MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WILL INDUCE DEVELOPMENT/INTENSIFICATION OF A SURFACE LOW
NEAR SOUTHEAST FL/NORTH BAHAMAS LATE TODAY. THIS FEATURE WILL
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT. SHOWERY
PCPN WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT WITH GREATEST CHANCES ALONG
THE COAST. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY WITH IFR
CONDS THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...PERHAPS SOME LCL OR AREAS OF LIFR.
EARLY MORNING NW WINDS OVER THE INTERIOR WILL VEER TO NNE/NE DURING
THE DAY BEFORE BACKING TO NWRLY AGAIN THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. NERLY
WINDS ALONG THE COAST EARLY THIS MORNING WILL ALSO BACK TO NWRLY
THIS EVENING. WIND SPEEDS WHILE MAINLY LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY WILL
INCREASE TO 15-20 KTS AND FREQUENT HIGHER GUSTS AFTER MIDNIGHT IN
RESPONSE TO THE RAPIDLY DEVELOPING/STRENGTHENING AFOREMENTIONED LOW
PRESSURE.


&&

.MARINE...

TODAY-TONIGHT...DEVELOPING INVERTED COASTAL TROUGH ALONG THE EAST
COAST TODAY. DEVELOPMENT/INTENSIFICATION OF A LOW PRESSURE NEAR
SOUTHEAST FL/BAHAMAS LATE TODAY. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT WITH RAPID DETERIORATING
MARINE CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN. TO START OFF...WILL REPLACE CURRENT
SCA WITH AN SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS OVER THE GULF STREAM THIS
MORNING (09Z/4AM - 15Z/10AM). WILL HOIST A GALE WARNING FOR
OFFSHORE WATERS BEGINNING 03Z/10PM TONIGHT FLAGLER BEACH-SEBASTIAN
INLET...CONTINUING SOUTHWARD TO JUPITER INLET AT 06Z/1AM. SAME
TIMING FOR THE NEAR SHORE WATERS EXCEPT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

NERLY WINDS BACK LATER THIS EVENING/TONIGHT TO NWRLY. WIND SPEEDS
WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE PGRAD RELAXES BUT
WILL RAMP UP AGAIN OVERNIGHT. WIND SPEEDS NEAR SHORE OVERNIGHT WILL
INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KTS AND GUSTY...WHEREAS SPEEDS OVER THE OPEN
ATLC WILL INCREASE TO 25 TO 30 KTS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE.

SEAS 4-5 FT NEAR SHORE TODAY AND 5-7 FT EARLY IN THE PERIOD OVER THE
GULF STREAM...SUBSIDING TO 5-6 FT BY LATE MORNING. SEAS WILL BUILD
BACK LATE OVERNIGHT TO 6-9 FT NEAR SHORE AND 7-10 FT OFFSHORE TOWARD
DAYBREAK SUN MORNING.

SUN...VERY HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL EXIST OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS SUN AS STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE LIFTS NORTHEAST.
STRONG NW WINDS UP TO 25 TO 30 KTS WILL PRODUCE FREQUENT GUSTS TO
GALE FORCE OFFSHORE...BUILDING SEAS UP TO 10-13 FEET. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL EXIST NEARSHORE WITH GALE WARNING OFFSHORE.

MON-WED...HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO
EARLY-MID WEEK AS A COUPLE REINFORCING COLD FRONTS MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA KEEPING WINDS AND SEAS ELEVATED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  64  48  57  38 /  30  60  10   0
MCO  68  47  58  40 /  30  60  10   0
MLB  70  50  60  39 /  30  70  10   0
VRB  72  54  60  39 /  40  80  10   0
LEE  63  43  58  40 /  30  50  10   0
SFB  65  47  58  40 /  30  60  10   0
ORL  66  46  58  42 /  30  60  10   0
FPR  74  54  60  39 /  40  80  10   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM-
     FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-
     SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM-SEBASTIAN INLET TO
     JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
     SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
     SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY
     FOR FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM-
     VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR SEBASTIAN INLET TO
     JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS
     MORNING FOR FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-
     60 NM-SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM-SEBASTIAN
     INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE
     TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-
     VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR SEBASTIAN
     INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...SEDLOCK
LONG TERM....WEITLICH





000
FXUS62 KMLB 060841
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
341 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...

...UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT THEN TURNING COOLER SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
...DETERIORATING MARINE CONDITIONS AGAIN TONIGHT...

CURRENT...QUITE AN INTERESTING TEMPERATURE PROFILE ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE EAST COAST AS COASTAL TROUGHING DEVELOPS HERE. U40S/L50S
WHERE AN OFFSHORE COMPONENT EXISTS AND U50S UP TO 70 DEGREES (SUA)
WHERE WINDS HAVE BECOME ONSHORE. IN COMPARISON OKEECHOBEE HAS FALLEN
TO 50 DEGREES. FURTHER INTO THE INTERIOR TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE
U40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES. STILL MAY SEE A FEW LOWEST WIND CHILL
READINGS AROUND 40 DEGREES EARLY THIS MORNING NORTHWEST OF I-4. VERY
DRY IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS VIEWED ON WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND OBSERVED FROM BOTH KTBW/KXMR 00Z EVENING
SOUNDINGS. INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD
DECK OFF OF THE EAST COAST BUT THESE CEILINGS OF 4.0-6.0 KFT ARE
HAVING A HARD TIME PENETRATING INLAND THUS FAR THIS MORNING.
NEXRAD 88D BEGINNING TO SHOW SOME SPITS/SPRINKLES OFF OF THE
TREASURE COAST AS A SHALLOW MODIFICATION OF THE LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS
TAKES PLACE DUE TO ENHANCED COASTAL CONVERGENCE INVOF THE
DEVELOPING THERMALLY INDUCED INVERTED TROUGH.

TODAY-TONIGHT...EXPECT MANY FORECAST CHALLENGES OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS WITH SUBTLE COSMETIC UPDATES POSSIBLE FOR VARIOUS PARAMETERS.
COLD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF COAST STATES AND SOUTHEAST U.S.
WILL WEAKEN AND GET SQUEEZED NORTHEASTWARD. THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CURRENTLY RESIDES OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS. LATE
TODAY AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP SOMEWHERE NEAR
SOUTHEAST FLORIDA/NORTHERN BAHAMAS. TONIGHT THIS FEATURE WILL BEGIN
TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AND STRENGTHEN. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS FEATURE
WILL BE INDUCED BY A VIGOROUS/STRONG MID-LEVEL TROUGH PRESENTLY OVER
TEXAS. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH GULF DURING THE DAY
AND ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA LATE OVERNIGHT. FURTHER ALOFT A
FAIRLY STRONG 120-130 KNOT UPPER JET WILL STREAM OVER NORTH-CENTRAL
FLORIDA. DEEPEST MOISTURE (PWAT VALUES) IN UPWARDS OF 1.60 INCHES
WHILE STAY LIMITED TO THE TREASURE COAST AND SOUTHWARD. WHILE
DYNAMICS WILL BE STRONG WITH THIS SYSTEM THERMODYNAMICS WILL BE MUCH
LESS AS INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN LIMITED AND TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINT
VALUES IN THE LOWER LEVELS LOW. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THUNDER MENTION
ABSENT FROM THE FORECAST...THOUGH GREATEST CHANCES MAY EXIST OVER
THE GULF STREAM AND FURTHER OFFSHORE TONIGHT.

PLACEMENT/STRENGTH OF THE DEVELOPING LOW WILL BE KEY IN SEVERAL KEY
FORECAST PARAMETER FEATURES: TEMPERATURE, WIND DIRECTION/SPEED AND
GREATEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES/AMOUNTS. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP LIGHT
RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH 00Z/7PM WITH CHANCES GRADUALLY
INCREASING UP THROUGH THIS TIME. WILL GO WITH 30 PERCENT VALUES
CENTRAL OSCEOLA-CENTRAL BREVARD NORTHWARD AND 40 TO 50 PERCENT
FURTHER SOUTHWARD. FUTURE SHIFTS CAN ALTER THESE NUMBERS AS
CONFIDENCE/RADAR TRENDS DICTATE. FOR TONIGHT WILL GO WITH 50 TO 60
PERCENT FOR SHOWERY PRECIPITATION FROM VOLUSIA COUNTY SOUTHWESTWARD
THROUGH OSCEOLA COUNTY. EAST AND SOUTH OF THESE AREAS WILL BUMP UP
CHANCES TO 70 TO 90 PERCENT. WILL MONITOR FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL ACROSS THE TREASURE COAST. RANGE FOR HIGHEST RAINFALL
CHANCES AREAWIDE APPEARS TO BE BETWEEN 00Z-06Z (7PM-1AM).

NORTHERLY EARLY MORNING WINDS INLAND FROM THE COAST WILL VEER TO NNE-
NE THROUGHOUT THE DAY THEN BACK TO NWRLY THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. NE
MORNING WINDS ALONG THE COAST ARE FORECAST TO BACK TO NWRLY AS WELL
TONIGHT. GENERALLY LIGHT WIND SPEEDS TODAY WILL INCREASE LATE THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT AREAWIDE AS THE LOW BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN AND PULL
AWAY SLOWLY FROM THE AREA. WIND SPEEDS LIKELY TO APPROACH 20 TO 25
MPH WITH FREQUENT HIGHER GUSTS LATE TONIGHT.

TEMPERATURES MAY BE INTERESTING AS WELL WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER
AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES RAMPING UPWARD. NORTH OF I-4 IN THE L-M60S
WITH U60S/L70S SOUTHWARD...EXCEPT POSSIBLE M70S ALONG THE MARTIN
COUNTY COAST.

SUN...STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFFSHORE WILL BUILD TOWARD
THE NORTHEAST...LEAVING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA IN
ITS WAKE. THIS WILL GENERATE A WINDY NORTHWEST FLOW OVER CENTRAL
FLORIDA TRANSPORTING A DRY AND COLDER AIRMASS SOUTHWARD. ANY
LINGERING CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST WILL DECREASE INTO THE MORNING WITH
SHOWERS LIMITED TO THE COASTAL WATERS BY DAYBREAK. HIGHS WILL BE A
GOOD 13-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...ONLY REACHING THE UPPER 50S TO LOW
60S OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. SFC WINDS WILL THEN RELAX INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.

MON-WED...MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH MID WEEK. A COUPLE REINFORCING COLD FRONTS FORECAST TO CROSS
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINTAINING BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION. WESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF
THE FIRST FRONT MONDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MID 60S...THEN AS
THIS BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DROP TEMPERATURES
INTO THE LOW-MID 40S MON NIGHT. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF
THE 50S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TUE WITH STRONGER COLD AIR ADVECTION
TUE NIGHT PRODUCING LOWS IN THE MID 30S OVER FAR NRN LAKE/VOLUSIA
COUNTIES AND IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S FARTHER SOUTH. WILL HAVE TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS IN THE GUIDANCE HOWEVER AS NEAR FREEZING
TEMPS MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO
EARLY WED MORNING.

DRY CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED FROM EARLY TO MID WEEK...BUT A
STRONG SOUTHERN JET STREAM MAY HELP GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE MON NIGHT DESPITE LIMITED MOISTURE. HAVE ADDED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA MONDAY EVENING...OTHERWISE
RAIN CHANCES REMAIN OUT OF THE REST OF THE FORECAST.

THU-FRI...DOMINANT UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL GRADUALLY
LIFT NORTHWARD INTO LATE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF WILL
BUILD EASTWARD AND ACROSS FL INTO THU BEFORE LIFTING FARTHER
NORTHEAST FRI. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE
IN TEMPS FORECAST BY THE MODELS INTO LATE WEEK WITH HIGHS CLOSER TO
NORMAL INDICATED BY FRI.

&&

.AVIATION...BKN-OVC040-060 MARINE STRATOCU DECK ALONG THE EAST COAST
EARLY THIS MORNING HAVING SOME TROUBLE SPREADING INLAND...BUT
BELIEVE IT INEVITABLY WILL LATER THIS MORNING. INVERTED COASTAL
TROUGH/CONVERGENCE DEVELOPING ALONG THE EAST COAST WITH VERY SLOW
MODIFICATION OF THE LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS. EXPECT SPRINKLES AND LOW-
TOPPED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND GRADUALLY
SPREAD INLAND DURING THE DAY. AN APPROACHING STRONG MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WILL INDUCE DEVELOPMENT/INTENSIFICATION OF A SURFACE LOW
NEAR SOUTHEAST FL/NORTH BAHAMAS LATE TODAY. THIS FEATURE WILL
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT. SHOWERY
PCPN WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT WITH GREATEST CHANCES ALONG
THE COAST. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY WITH IFR
CONDS THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...PERHAPS SOME LCL OR AREAS OF LIFR.
EARLY MORNING NW WINDS OVER THE INTERIOR WILL VEER TO NNE/NE DURING
THE DAY BEFORE BACKING TO NWRLY AGAIN THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. NERLY
WINDS ALONG THE COAST EARLY THIS MORNING WILL ALSO BACK TO NWRLY
THIS EVENING. WIND SPEEDS WHILE MAINLY LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY WILL
INCREASE TO 15-20 KTS AND FREQUENT HIGHER GUSTS AFTER MIDNIGHT IN
RESPONSE TO THE RAPIDLY DEVELOPING/STRENGTHENING AFOREMENTIONED LOW
PRESSURE.


&&

.MARINE...

TODAY-TONIGHT...DEVELOPING INVERTED COASTAL TROUGH ALONG THE EAST
COAST TODAY. DEVELOPMENT/INTENSIFICATION OF A LOW PRESSURE NEAR
SOUTHEAST FL/BAHAMAS LATE TODAY. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT WITH RAPID DETERIORATING
MARINE CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN. TO START OFF...WILL REPLACE CURRENT
SCA WITH AN SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS OVER THE GULF STREAM THIS
MORNING (09Z/4AM - 15Z/10AM). WILL HOIST A GALE WARNING FOR
OFFSHORE WATERS BEGINNING 03Z/10PM TONIGHT FLAGLER BEACH-SEBASTIAN
INLET...CONTINUING SOUTHWARD TO JUPITER INLET AT 06Z/1AM. SAME
TIMING FOR THE NEAR SHORE WATERS EXCEPT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

NERLY WINDS BACK LATER THIS EVENING/TONIGHT TO NWRLY. WIND SPEEDS
WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE PGRAD RELAXES BUT
WILL RAMP UP AGAIN OVERNIGHT. WIND SPEEDS NEAR SHORE OVERNIGHT WILL
INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KTS AND GUSTY...WHEREAS SPEEDS OVER THE OPEN
ATLC WILL INCREASE TO 25 TO 30 KTS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE.

SEAS 4-5 FT NEAR SHORE TODAY AND 5-7 FT EARLY IN THE PERIOD OVER THE
GULF STREAM...SUBSIDING TO 5-6 FT BY LATE MORNING. SEAS WILL BUILD
BACK LATE OVERNIGHT TO 6-9 FT NEAR SHORE AND 7-10 FT OFFSHORE TOWARD
DAYBREAK SUN MORNING.

SUN...VERY HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL EXIST OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS SUN AS STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE LIFTS NORTHEAST.
STRONG NW WINDS UP TO 25 TO 30 KTS WILL PRODUCE FREQUENT GUSTS TO
GALE FORCE OFFSHORE...BUILDING SEAS UP TO 10-13 FEET. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL EXIST NEARSHORE WITH GALE WARNING OFFSHORE.

MON-WED...HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO
EARLY-MID WEEK AS A COUPLE REINFORCING COLD FRONTS MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA KEEPING WINDS AND SEAS ELEVATED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  64  48  57  38 /  30  60  10   0
MCO  68  47  58  40 /  30  60  10   0
MLB  70  50  60  39 /  30  70  10   0
VRB  72  54  60  39 /  40  80  10   0
LEE  63  43  58  40 /  30  50  10   0
SFB  65  47  58  40 /  30  60  10   0
ORL  66  46  58  42 /  30  60  10   0
FPR  74  54  60  39 /  40  80  10   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM-
     FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-
     SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM-SEBASTIAN INLET TO
     JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
     SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
     SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY
     FOR FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM-
     VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR SEBASTIAN INLET TO
     JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS
     MORNING FOR FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-
     60 NM-SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM-SEBASTIAN
     INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE
     TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-
     VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR SEBASTIAN
     INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...SEDLOCK
LONG TERM....WEITLICH





000
FXUS62 KMLB 060841
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
341 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...

...UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT THEN TURNING COOLER SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
...DETERIORATING MARINE CONDITIONS AGAIN TONIGHT...

CURRENT...QUITE AN INTERESTING TEMPERATURE PROFILE ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE EAST COAST AS COASTAL TROUGHING DEVELOPS HERE. U40S/L50S
WHERE AN OFFSHORE COMPONENT EXISTS AND U50S UP TO 70 DEGREES (SUA)
WHERE WINDS HAVE BECOME ONSHORE. IN COMPARISON OKEECHOBEE HAS FALLEN
TO 50 DEGREES. FURTHER INTO THE INTERIOR TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE
U40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES. STILL MAY SEE A FEW LOWEST WIND CHILL
READINGS AROUND 40 DEGREES EARLY THIS MORNING NORTHWEST OF I-4. VERY
DRY IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS VIEWED ON WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND OBSERVED FROM BOTH KTBW/KXMR 00Z EVENING
SOUNDINGS. INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD
DECK OFF OF THE EAST COAST BUT THESE CEILINGS OF 4.0-6.0 KFT ARE
HAVING A HARD TIME PENETRATING INLAND THUS FAR THIS MORNING.
NEXRAD 88D BEGINNING TO SHOW SOME SPITS/SPRINKLES OFF OF THE
TREASURE COAST AS A SHALLOW MODIFICATION OF THE LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS
TAKES PLACE DUE TO ENHANCED COASTAL CONVERGENCE INVOF THE
DEVELOPING THERMALLY INDUCED INVERTED TROUGH.

TODAY-TONIGHT...EXPECT MANY FORECAST CHALLENGES OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS WITH SUBTLE COSMETIC UPDATES POSSIBLE FOR VARIOUS PARAMETERS.
COLD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF COAST STATES AND SOUTHEAST U.S.
WILL WEAKEN AND GET SQUEEZED NORTHEASTWARD. THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CURRENTLY RESIDES OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS. LATE
TODAY AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP SOMEWHERE NEAR
SOUTHEAST FLORIDA/NORTHERN BAHAMAS. TONIGHT THIS FEATURE WILL BEGIN
TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AND STRENGTHEN. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS FEATURE
WILL BE INDUCED BY A VIGOROUS/STRONG MID-LEVEL TROUGH PRESENTLY OVER
TEXAS. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH GULF DURING THE DAY
AND ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA LATE OVERNIGHT. FURTHER ALOFT A
FAIRLY STRONG 120-130 KNOT UPPER JET WILL STREAM OVER NORTH-CENTRAL
FLORIDA. DEEPEST MOISTURE (PWAT VALUES) IN UPWARDS OF 1.60 INCHES
WHILE STAY LIMITED TO THE TREASURE COAST AND SOUTHWARD. WHILE
DYNAMICS WILL BE STRONG WITH THIS SYSTEM THERMODYNAMICS WILL BE MUCH
LESS AS INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN LIMITED AND TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINT
VALUES IN THE LOWER LEVELS LOW. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THUNDER MENTION
ABSENT FROM THE FORECAST...THOUGH GREATEST CHANCES MAY EXIST OVER
THE GULF STREAM AND FURTHER OFFSHORE TONIGHT.

PLACEMENT/STRENGTH OF THE DEVELOPING LOW WILL BE KEY IN SEVERAL KEY
FORECAST PARAMETER FEATURES: TEMPERATURE, WIND DIRECTION/SPEED AND
GREATEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES/AMOUNTS. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP LIGHT
RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH 00Z/7PM WITH CHANCES GRADUALLY
INCREASING UP THROUGH THIS TIME. WILL GO WITH 30 PERCENT VALUES
CENTRAL OSCEOLA-CENTRAL BREVARD NORTHWARD AND 40 TO 50 PERCENT
FURTHER SOUTHWARD. FUTURE SHIFTS CAN ALTER THESE NUMBERS AS
CONFIDENCE/RADAR TRENDS DICTATE. FOR TONIGHT WILL GO WITH 50 TO 60
PERCENT FOR SHOWERY PRECIPITATION FROM VOLUSIA COUNTY SOUTHWESTWARD
THROUGH OSCEOLA COUNTY. EAST AND SOUTH OF THESE AREAS WILL BUMP UP
CHANCES TO 70 TO 90 PERCENT. WILL MONITOR FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL ACROSS THE TREASURE COAST. RANGE FOR HIGHEST RAINFALL
CHANCES AREAWIDE APPEARS TO BE BETWEEN 00Z-06Z (7PM-1AM).

NORTHERLY EARLY MORNING WINDS INLAND FROM THE COAST WILL VEER TO NNE-
NE THROUGHOUT THE DAY THEN BACK TO NWRLY THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. NE
MORNING WINDS ALONG THE COAST ARE FORECAST TO BACK TO NWRLY AS WELL
TONIGHT. GENERALLY LIGHT WIND SPEEDS TODAY WILL INCREASE LATE THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT AREAWIDE AS THE LOW BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN AND PULL
AWAY SLOWLY FROM THE AREA. WIND SPEEDS LIKELY TO APPROACH 20 TO 25
MPH WITH FREQUENT HIGHER GUSTS LATE TONIGHT.

TEMPERATURES MAY BE INTERESTING AS WELL WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER
AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES RAMPING UPWARD. NORTH OF I-4 IN THE L-M60S
WITH U60S/L70S SOUTHWARD...EXCEPT POSSIBLE M70S ALONG THE MARTIN
COUNTY COAST.

SUN...STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFFSHORE WILL BUILD TOWARD
THE NORTHEAST...LEAVING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA IN
ITS WAKE. THIS WILL GENERATE A WINDY NORTHWEST FLOW OVER CENTRAL
FLORIDA TRANSPORTING A DRY AND COLDER AIRMASS SOUTHWARD. ANY
LINGERING CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST WILL DECREASE INTO THE MORNING WITH
SHOWERS LIMITED TO THE COASTAL WATERS BY DAYBREAK. HIGHS WILL BE A
GOOD 13-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...ONLY REACHING THE UPPER 50S TO LOW
60S OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. SFC WINDS WILL THEN RELAX INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.

MON-WED...MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH MID WEEK. A COUPLE REINFORCING COLD FRONTS FORECAST TO CROSS
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINTAINING BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION. WESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF
THE FIRST FRONT MONDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MID 60S...THEN AS
THIS BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DROP TEMPERATURES
INTO THE LOW-MID 40S MON NIGHT. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF
THE 50S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TUE WITH STRONGER COLD AIR ADVECTION
TUE NIGHT PRODUCING LOWS IN THE MID 30S OVER FAR NRN LAKE/VOLUSIA
COUNTIES AND IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S FARTHER SOUTH. WILL HAVE TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS IN THE GUIDANCE HOWEVER AS NEAR FREEZING
TEMPS MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO
EARLY WED MORNING.

DRY CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED FROM EARLY TO MID WEEK...BUT A
STRONG SOUTHERN JET STREAM MAY HELP GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE MON NIGHT DESPITE LIMITED MOISTURE. HAVE ADDED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA MONDAY EVENING...OTHERWISE
RAIN CHANCES REMAIN OUT OF THE REST OF THE FORECAST.

THU-FRI...DOMINANT UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL GRADUALLY
LIFT NORTHWARD INTO LATE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF WILL
BUILD EASTWARD AND ACROSS FL INTO THU BEFORE LIFTING FARTHER
NORTHEAST FRI. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE
IN TEMPS FORECAST BY THE MODELS INTO LATE WEEK WITH HIGHS CLOSER TO
NORMAL INDICATED BY FRI.

&&

.AVIATION...BKN-OVC040-060 MARINE STRATOCU DECK ALONG THE EAST COAST
EARLY THIS MORNING HAVING SOME TROUBLE SPREADING INLAND...BUT
BELIEVE IT INEVITABLY WILL LATER THIS MORNING. INVERTED COASTAL
TROUGH/CONVERGENCE DEVELOPING ALONG THE EAST COAST WITH VERY SLOW
MODIFICATION OF THE LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS. EXPECT SPRINKLES AND LOW-
TOPPED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND GRADUALLY
SPREAD INLAND DURING THE DAY. AN APPROACHING STRONG MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WILL INDUCE DEVELOPMENT/INTENSIFICATION OF A SURFACE LOW
NEAR SOUTHEAST FL/NORTH BAHAMAS LATE TODAY. THIS FEATURE WILL
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT. SHOWERY
PCPN WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT WITH GREATEST CHANCES ALONG
THE COAST. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY WITH IFR
CONDS THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...PERHAPS SOME LCL OR AREAS OF LIFR.
EARLY MORNING NW WINDS OVER THE INTERIOR WILL VEER TO NNE/NE DURING
THE DAY BEFORE BACKING TO NWRLY AGAIN THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. NERLY
WINDS ALONG THE COAST EARLY THIS MORNING WILL ALSO BACK TO NWRLY
THIS EVENING. WIND SPEEDS WHILE MAINLY LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY WILL
INCREASE TO 15-20 KTS AND FREQUENT HIGHER GUSTS AFTER MIDNIGHT IN
RESPONSE TO THE RAPIDLY DEVELOPING/STRENGTHENING AFOREMENTIONED LOW
PRESSURE.


&&

.MARINE...

TODAY-TONIGHT...DEVELOPING INVERTED COASTAL TROUGH ALONG THE EAST
COAST TODAY. DEVELOPMENT/INTENSIFICATION OF A LOW PRESSURE NEAR
SOUTHEAST FL/BAHAMAS LATE TODAY. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT WITH RAPID DETERIORATING
MARINE CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN. TO START OFF...WILL REPLACE CURRENT
SCA WITH AN SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS OVER THE GULF STREAM THIS
MORNING (09Z/4AM - 15Z/10AM). WILL HOIST A GALE WARNING FOR
OFFSHORE WATERS BEGINNING 03Z/10PM TONIGHT FLAGLER BEACH-SEBASTIAN
INLET...CONTINUING SOUTHWARD TO JUPITER INLET AT 06Z/1AM. SAME
TIMING FOR THE NEAR SHORE WATERS EXCEPT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

NERLY WINDS BACK LATER THIS EVENING/TONIGHT TO NWRLY. WIND SPEEDS
WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE PGRAD RELAXES BUT
WILL RAMP UP AGAIN OVERNIGHT. WIND SPEEDS NEAR SHORE OVERNIGHT WILL
INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KTS AND GUSTY...WHEREAS SPEEDS OVER THE OPEN
ATLC WILL INCREASE TO 25 TO 30 KTS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE.

SEAS 4-5 FT NEAR SHORE TODAY AND 5-7 FT EARLY IN THE PERIOD OVER THE
GULF STREAM...SUBSIDING TO 5-6 FT BY LATE MORNING. SEAS WILL BUILD
BACK LATE OVERNIGHT TO 6-9 FT NEAR SHORE AND 7-10 FT OFFSHORE TOWARD
DAYBREAK SUN MORNING.

SUN...VERY HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL EXIST OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS SUN AS STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE LIFTS NORTHEAST.
STRONG NW WINDS UP TO 25 TO 30 KTS WILL PRODUCE FREQUENT GUSTS TO
GALE FORCE OFFSHORE...BUILDING SEAS UP TO 10-13 FEET. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL EXIST NEARSHORE WITH GALE WARNING OFFSHORE.

MON-WED...HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO
EARLY-MID WEEK AS A COUPLE REINFORCING COLD FRONTS MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA KEEPING WINDS AND SEAS ELEVATED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  64  48  57  38 /  30  60  10   0
MCO  68  47  58  40 /  30  60  10   0
MLB  70  50  60  39 /  30  70  10   0
VRB  72  54  60  39 /  40  80  10   0
LEE  63  43  58  40 /  30  50  10   0
SFB  65  47  58  40 /  30  60  10   0
ORL  66  46  58  42 /  30  60  10   0
FPR  74  54  60  39 /  40  80  10   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM-
     FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-
     SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM-SEBASTIAN INLET TO
     JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
     SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
     SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY
     FOR FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM-
     VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR SEBASTIAN INLET TO
     JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS
     MORNING FOR FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-
     60 NM-SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM-SEBASTIAN
     INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE
     TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-
     VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR SEBASTIAN
     INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...SEDLOCK
LONG TERM....WEITLICH




000
FXUS62 KMLB 060331
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1030 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.UPDATE...

...HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS INTO TONIGHT...

UPDATE...COLD HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE NORTH IS SLIDING EAST...
WITH SYNOPTIC WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NE. N-NW DRAINAGE WIND HAS SET
UP OVER LAND AS TEMPS THERE HAVE FALLEN INTO THE U40S-50F. A LOCAL
"BATTLEGROUND" OF SORTS SITS ALONG THE COAST - WINDS AT DAB/MLB
SNAPPED BACK AROUND TO NW...WHICH ALLOWED THEIR TEMPS TO PLUMMET TO
THE L50S...WHILE VRB-FPR-SUA AND THE BREVARD BARRIER ISLANDS ARE ALL
IN THE M-U60S. WAA/UPGLIDE APPARENT ON 00Z MFL SOUNDING OCCURRING AT
THE SUBSIDENCE CAP LEVEL...AROUND H85-H80. RESULTANT NWD EXPANSION
OF CLOUD DECK FROM SOUTH FL ALONG THE TREASURE COAST CAN BE SEEN IN
3.9UM IMAGERY.

REMAINDER OF TONIGHT...SUFFICE IT TO SAY THAT THERE WILL BE A LARGE
DISPARITY IN MINS OVER THE COASTAL COS...AND THE MAIN UPDATE WILL BE
TO EMPHASIZE THIS LARGE RANGE. ANOTHER ISSUE IS THE SMALL COASTAL
POP. IT`S PAINFULLY APPARENT THAT THE ENTIRE GLOBAL AND HIGH-RES
LOCAL/MESO MODEL SUITE IS MUCH...MUCH TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH THE LIGHT
PRECIP FCST TO DEVELOP OVER THE ATLC AND ITS ADVECTION ONSHORE. JUST
ABOUT EVERY PIECE OF GUIDANCE HAD -SHRA REACHING THE COAST BY 03Z...
YET THE 88D IS ECHO FREE WELL UPSTREAM OVER THE ATLC ATTM. HAD MADE
A LATE AFTN ADJUSTMENT TO GRIDS/ZFP TO PUSH TIMING OF ONSET OVER THE
ATLC BACK TO 04Z AND ALONG THE COAST AROUND 08Z...AND THIS APPEARS
TO BE WORKING OUT WELL THUS FAR. STILL EXPECTING ENHANCED COASTAL
CONVERGENCE INVOF THERMALLY INDUCED INVERTED COASTAL TROUGH COUPLED
WITH SHALLOW MODIFICATION OF LOW LEVEL AIR MASS TO EVENTUALLY ALLOW
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS/SPRINKLES TO BREAK OUT OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS
AND QUICKLY PUSH ONSHORE TOWARD SUNRISE.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. BKN035-045 SPREADING INLAND FROM THE COAST WITH
AREAS OVC040 SPREAD NWD SUA-MLB. VFR CIGS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INLAND
AFT 06Z...WITH --SHRA/-SHRA DVLPG OVER THE ATLC BY THAT TIME...
AND EXPECTED TO INVOF THE COASTAL AERODROMES BY 09Z-12Z. VCSH FOR
MOST AREAS (LOWEST CHC LEE-ISM) DVLPG BY 15Z-16Z.

&&

.MARINE...NO CHGS. SOLID SCA CONDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH SEA BUILDING TO 5-7FT NEAR SHORE AND 7-10FT OFFSHORE AS
NRLY WINDS OF 20-25KT VEER TO NE.

&&

UPDATE/AVIATION...CRISTALDI
IMPACT WEATHER...LASCODY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016/

...COOL/UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEKEND THEN TURNING EVEN COOLER
NEXT WEEK...

SAT...POSITIVE TILT S/W TROUGH ACROSS WILL MOVE FROM E TX TWD LA/AL
WITH INCREASING DEEP LAYER LIFT EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE TROUGH OVER
THE SRN PENINSULA IN THE AFTERNOON. LOW LVL FLOW WILL VEER TO
ONSHORE WITH SOME LOW LVL CONVERGENCE FAVORED ACROSS VOLUSIA COUNTY
IN THE MORNING. EXPECT MARINE STRATOCU TO HAVE PUSHED WELL INLAND BY
MORNING WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. EXPECT SLIGHTLY HIGHER COVERAGE OF
AFTERNOON SHOWERS ACROSS SRN SECTIONS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON NEAR
DEVELOPING LOW OFF THE SE FL COAST TWD EVENING. OVERALL EXPECTED
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WITH MILDER HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 60S NRN
AREAS AND LWR-MID 70S SOUTH.

SAT NIGHT-SUN (MODIFIED PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)...ACTIVE SOUTHERN
JET STREAM PATTERN CONTINUES AS DEEPENING S/W TROUGH APPROACHES
THE NORTHERN GULF AND FLORIDA. THIS WILL DEVELOP AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE SE FL COAST THAT WILL QUICKLY INTENSIFY AS IT
LIFTS NE SUN. LOW LEVEL E-NE FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AND BECOME N-NE
INTO LATE SAT AFT AND EVE...INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT...RAIN
CHANCES AND CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION. THUNDER REMAINS OUT OF
THE FORECAST AS BEST LIFT AND DYNAMICS REMAIN ALONG AND EAST OF
THE LOW OFF THE FLORIDA COAST. CONTINUED WITH A BLEND OF MOS POPS
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS INDICATED BY SAT AFT (RAIN CHANCES
30-40%)... BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD ALONG COASTAL AREAS INTO SAT
EVENING (UP TO 60-80%). RAIN WILL THEN GRADUALLY PUSH OFFSHORE
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS LOW LIFTS NE. OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS DO NOT
LOOK TOO HIGH WITH THIS SYSTEM...AROUND 0.25-0.75 INCHES MAINLY
ALONG THE EAST COAST COUNTIES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE TREASURE COAST. SUNDAY LOOKS TO
BE DRY AS BREEZY/WINDY N/NW FLOW BEHIND THE EXITING LOW DRAGS
COOLER/DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA.

HIGHS ON SAT CURRENTLY FORECAST TO RANGE FROM LOW-MID 60S ORLANDO
NORTHWARD TO LOW 70S ALONG THE TREASURE COAST. SUNDAY HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
40S WITH UPPER 30S POSSIBLE OVER THE INTERIOR SUNDAY NIGHT.

MON-THU...COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WORK
WEEK AS SERIES OF COLD/REINFORCING FRONTS ALLOW FOR A PREDOMINANT
W/NW FLOW OVER THE REGION. COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT MAY GENERATE ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS BUT OTHERWISE MUCH OF THE
WEEK LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY AS WELL. HIGHS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE MID
60S MON...THEN 50S TO LOW 60S TUE/WED AND BACK TO LOW-MID 60S THU.
LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 40S...EXCEPT FOR AREAS OF MID-UPPER 30S
TUE/WED NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION...

MARINE STRATOCU HAS MOVED ONSHORE NEAR THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON
NEAR 3 KFT AND WILL PUSH GRADUALLY INLAND OVERNIGHT. HIGHER CHC
FOR BKN CIGS NEAR THE EAST COAST TERMINALS WITH SOME VERY LIGHT
SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT ALONG THE E COAST. INCLUDED VCSH AT
KDAB/KSUA FOR SAT MORNING WHERE HIGHER PRECIP CHANCES ARE EXPECTED
TO START THE DAY...THOUGH COVERAGE OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO BE
LOW WITH LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS.

&&

.MARINE...

TONIGHT-SAT...N WINDS NEAR 20 KNOTS ACROSS THE WATERS INTO LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL VEER OVERNIGHT AND DECREASE TO 15 KNOTS
BY MORNING. WILL LEAVE CURRENT SCA IN PLACE AND LET EVENING SHIFT
ASSESS TRENDS FOR ANY NEEDED ADJUSTMENTS. MAY NEED TO EXTEND
ADVISORY TO GULF STREAM INTO SATURDAY MORNING BASED ON CURRENT FCST.
ON SAT...ONSHORE FLOW TO 10-15 KNOTS WILL DECREASE SOME INTO THE
AFTERNOON WITH SEAS TO 4-5 FT NEARSHORE AND AROUND 6 FT OFFSHORE.

SAT-SUN...AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP OFF THE SE FL
COAST LATE SAT AND QUICKLY INTENSIFY INTO SAT NIGHT-SUN AS IT LIFTS
NE. WINDS INITIALLY OUT OF THE E/NE SAT MORNING AROUND 10-15 KNOTS
WILL BECOME N/NW AND RAPIDLY INCREASE INTO SAT NIGHT WITH HAZARDOUS
...POTENTIALLY VERY HAZARDOUS...BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE
ENTIRE COASTAL WATERS BY LATE SAT NIGHT...CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY.

MON-TUE...POOR TO HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION MON NIGHT
WHICH WILL STRENGTHEN WESTERLY WINDS AND KEEP SEAS ELEVATED
OFFSHORE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE WILL RECOVER SATURDAY AS
A STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND MOVES OFF THE EAST
COAST OF FLORIDA. HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WILL RESIDE ALONG THE EAST
COAST SATURDAY NIGHT. ON SUNDAY...GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
USHER IN COOLER AND DRIER AIR DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH LOW MIN
RH`S FALLING INTO THE 30S FOR AT LEAST A FEW HOURS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  50  66  47  57 /  20  30  60  10
MCO  49  72  47  58 /  10  30  60  10
MLB  53  71  51  60 /  20  30  70  10
VRB  55  73  52  60 /  20  40  70  10
LEE  45  67  43  58 /  10  30  50  10
SFB  48  68  46  58 /  10  30  60  10
ORL  50  69  46  58 /  10  30  60  10
FPR  55  74  52  60 /  20  40  70  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR FLAGLER BEACH
     TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM-FLAGLER BEACH TO
     VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-SEBASTIAN INLET TO
     JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM-SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20-
     60 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20
     NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KMLB 060331
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1030 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.UPDATE...

...HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS INTO TONIGHT...

UPDATE...COLD HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE NORTH IS SLIDING EAST...
WITH SYNOPTIC WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NE. N-NW DRAINAGE WIND HAS SET
UP OVER LAND AS TEMPS THERE HAVE FALLEN INTO THE U40S-50F. A LOCAL
"BATTLEGROUND" OF SORTS SITS ALONG THE COAST - WINDS AT DAB/MLB
SNAPPED BACK AROUND TO NW...WHICH ALLOWED THEIR TEMPS TO PLUMMET TO
THE L50S...WHILE VRB-FPR-SUA AND THE BREVARD BARRIER ISLANDS ARE ALL
IN THE M-U60S. WAA/UPGLIDE APPARENT ON 00Z MFL SOUNDING OCCURRING AT
THE SUBSIDENCE CAP LEVEL...AROUND H85-H80. RESULTANT NWD EXPANSION
OF CLOUD DECK FROM SOUTH FL ALONG THE TREASURE COAST CAN BE SEEN IN
3.9UM IMAGERY.

REMAINDER OF TONIGHT...SUFFICE IT TO SAY THAT THERE WILL BE A LARGE
DISPARITY IN MINS OVER THE COASTAL COS...AND THE MAIN UPDATE WILL BE
TO EMPHASIZE THIS LARGE RANGE. ANOTHER ISSUE IS THE SMALL COASTAL
POP. IT`S PAINFULLY APPARENT THAT THE ENTIRE GLOBAL AND HIGH-RES
LOCAL/MESO MODEL SUITE IS MUCH...MUCH TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH THE LIGHT
PRECIP FCST TO DEVELOP OVER THE ATLC AND ITS ADVECTION ONSHORE. JUST
ABOUT EVERY PIECE OF GUIDANCE HAD -SHRA REACHING THE COAST BY 03Z...
YET THE 88D IS ECHO FREE WELL UPSTREAM OVER THE ATLC ATTM. HAD MADE
A LATE AFTN ADJUSTMENT TO GRIDS/ZFP TO PUSH TIMING OF ONSET OVER THE
ATLC BACK TO 04Z AND ALONG THE COAST AROUND 08Z...AND THIS APPEARS
TO BE WORKING OUT WELL THUS FAR. STILL EXPECTING ENHANCED COASTAL
CONVERGENCE INVOF THERMALLY INDUCED INVERTED COASTAL TROUGH COUPLED
WITH SHALLOW MODIFICATION OF LOW LEVEL AIR MASS TO EVENTUALLY ALLOW
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS/SPRINKLES TO BREAK OUT OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS
AND QUICKLY PUSH ONSHORE TOWARD SUNRISE.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. BKN035-045 SPREADING INLAND FROM THE COAST WITH
AREAS OVC040 SPREAD NWD SUA-MLB. VFR CIGS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INLAND
AFT 06Z...WITH --SHRA/-SHRA DVLPG OVER THE ATLC BY THAT TIME...
AND EXPECTED TO INVOF THE COASTAL AERODROMES BY 09Z-12Z. VCSH FOR
MOST AREAS (LOWEST CHC LEE-ISM) DVLPG BY 15Z-16Z.

&&

.MARINE...NO CHGS. SOLID SCA CONDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH SEA BUILDING TO 5-7FT NEAR SHORE AND 7-10FT OFFSHORE AS
NRLY WINDS OF 20-25KT VEER TO NE.

&&

UPDATE/AVIATION...CRISTALDI
IMPACT WEATHER...LASCODY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016/

...COOL/UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEKEND THEN TURNING EVEN COOLER
NEXT WEEK...

SAT...POSITIVE TILT S/W TROUGH ACROSS WILL MOVE FROM E TX TWD LA/AL
WITH INCREASING DEEP LAYER LIFT EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE TROUGH OVER
THE SRN PENINSULA IN THE AFTERNOON. LOW LVL FLOW WILL VEER TO
ONSHORE WITH SOME LOW LVL CONVERGENCE FAVORED ACROSS VOLUSIA COUNTY
IN THE MORNING. EXPECT MARINE STRATOCU TO HAVE PUSHED WELL INLAND BY
MORNING WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. EXPECT SLIGHTLY HIGHER COVERAGE OF
AFTERNOON SHOWERS ACROSS SRN SECTIONS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON NEAR
DEVELOPING LOW OFF THE SE FL COAST TWD EVENING. OVERALL EXPECTED
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WITH MILDER HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 60S NRN
AREAS AND LWR-MID 70S SOUTH.

SAT NIGHT-SUN (MODIFIED PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)...ACTIVE SOUTHERN
JET STREAM PATTERN CONTINUES AS DEEPENING S/W TROUGH APPROACHES
THE NORTHERN GULF AND FLORIDA. THIS WILL DEVELOP AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE SE FL COAST THAT WILL QUICKLY INTENSIFY AS IT
LIFTS NE SUN. LOW LEVEL E-NE FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AND BECOME N-NE
INTO LATE SAT AFT AND EVE...INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT...RAIN
CHANCES AND CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION. THUNDER REMAINS OUT OF
THE FORECAST AS BEST LIFT AND DYNAMICS REMAIN ALONG AND EAST OF
THE LOW OFF THE FLORIDA COAST. CONTINUED WITH A BLEND OF MOS POPS
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS INDICATED BY SAT AFT (RAIN CHANCES
30-40%)... BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD ALONG COASTAL AREAS INTO SAT
EVENING (UP TO 60-80%). RAIN WILL THEN GRADUALLY PUSH OFFSHORE
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS LOW LIFTS NE. OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS DO NOT
LOOK TOO HIGH WITH THIS SYSTEM...AROUND 0.25-0.75 INCHES MAINLY
ALONG THE EAST COAST COUNTIES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE TREASURE COAST. SUNDAY LOOKS TO
BE DRY AS BREEZY/WINDY N/NW FLOW BEHIND THE EXITING LOW DRAGS
COOLER/DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA.

HIGHS ON SAT CURRENTLY FORECAST TO RANGE FROM LOW-MID 60S ORLANDO
NORTHWARD TO LOW 70S ALONG THE TREASURE COAST. SUNDAY HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
40S WITH UPPER 30S POSSIBLE OVER THE INTERIOR SUNDAY NIGHT.

MON-THU...COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WORK
WEEK AS SERIES OF COLD/REINFORCING FRONTS ALLOW FOR A PREDOMINANT
W/NW FLOW OVER THE REGION. COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT MAY GENERATE ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS BUT OTHERWISE MUCH OF THE
WEEK LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY AS WELL. HIGHS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE MID
60S MON...THEN 50S TO LOW 60S TUE/WED AND BACK TO LOW-MID 60S THU.
LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 40S...EXCEPT FOR AREAS OF MID-UPPER 30S
TUE/WED NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION...

MARINE STRATOCU HAS MOVED ONSHORE NEAR THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON
NEAR 3 KFT AND WILL PUSH GRADUALLY INLAND OVERNIGHT. HIGHER CHC
FOR BKN CIGS NEAR THE EAST COAST TERMINALS WITH SOME VERY LIGHT
SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT ALONG THE E COAST. INCLUDED VCSH AT
KDAB/KSUA FOR SAT MORNING WHERE HIGHER PRECIP CHANCES ARE EXPECTED
TO START THE DAY...THOUGH COVERAGE OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO BE
LOW WITH LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS.

&&

.MARINE...

TONIGHT-SAT...N WINDS NEAR 20 KNOTS ACROSS THE WATERS INTO LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL VEER OVERNIGHT AND DECREASE TO 15 KNOTS
BY MORNING. WILL LEAVE CURRENT SCA IN PLACE AND LET EVENING SHIFT
ASSESS TRENDS FOR ANY NEEDED ADJUSTMENTS. MAY NEED TO EXTEND
ADVISORY TO GULF STREAM INTO SATURDAY MORNING BASED ON CURRENT FCST.
ON SAT...ONSHORE FLOW TO 10-15 KNOTS WILL DECREASE SOME INTO THE
AFTERNOON WITH SEAS TO 4-5 FT NEARSHORE AND AROUND 6 FT OFFSHORE.

SAT-SUN...AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP OFF THE SE FL
COAST LATE SAT AND QUICKLY INTENSIFY INTO SAT NIGHT-SUN AS IT LIFTS
NE. WINDS INITIALLY OUT OF THE E/NE SAT MORNING AROUND 10-15 KNOTS
WILL BECOME N/NW AND RAPIDLY INCREASE INTO SAT NIGHT WITH HAZARDOUS
...POTENTIALLY VERY HAZARDOUS...BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE
ENTIRE COASTAL WATERS BY LATE SAT NIGHT...CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY.

MON-TUE...POOR TO HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION MON NIGHT
WHICH WILL STRENGTHEN WESTERLY WINDS AND KEEP SEAS ELEVATED
OFFSHORE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE WILL RECOVER SATURDAY AS
A STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND MOVES OFF THE EAST
COAST OF FLORIDA. HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WILL RESIDE ALONG THE EAST
COAST SATURDAY NIGHT. ON SUNDAY...GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
USHER IN COOLER AND DRIER AIR DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH LOW MIN
RH`S FALLING INTO THE 30S FOR AT LEAST A FEW HOURS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  50  66  47  57 /  20  30  60  10
MCO  49  72  47  58 /  10  30  60  10
MLB  53  71  51  60 /  20  30  70  10
VRB  55  73  52  60 /  20  40  70  10
LEE  45  67  43  58 /  10  30  50  10
SFB  48  68  46  58 /  10  30  60  10
ORL  50  69  46  58 /  10  30  60  10
FPR  55  74  52  60 /  20  40  70  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR FLAGLER BEACH
     TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM-FLAGLER BEACH TO
     VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-SEBASTIAN INLET TO
     JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM-SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20-
     60 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20
     NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.

&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KMLB 060331
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1030 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.UPDATE...

...HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS INTO TONIGHT...

UPDATE...COLD HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE NORTH IS SLIDING EAST...
WITH SYNOPTIC WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NE. N-NW DRAINAGE WIND HAS SET
UP OVER LAND AS TEMPS THERE HAVE FALLEN INTO THE U40S-50F. A LOCAL
"BATTLEGROUND" OF SORTS SITS ALONG THE COAST - WINDS AT DAB/MLB
SNAPPED BACK AROUND TO NW...WHICH ALLOWED THEIR TEMPS TO PLUMMET TO
THE L50S...WHILE VRB-FPR-SUA AND THE BREVARD BARRIER ISLANDS ARE ALL
IN THE M-U60S. WAA/UPGLIDE APPARENT ON 00Z MFL SOUNDING OCCURRING AT
THE SUBSIDENCE CAP LEVEL...AROUND H85-H80. RESULTANT NWD EXPANSION
OF CLOUD DECK FROM SOUTH FL ALONG THE TREASURE COAST CAN BE SEEN IN
3.9UM IMAGERY.

REMAINDER OF TONIGHT...SUFFICE IT TO SAY THAT THERE WILL BE A LARGE
DISPARITY IN MINS OVER THE COASTAL COS...AND THE MAIN UPDATE WILL BE
TO EMPHASIZE THIS LARGE RANGE. ANOTHER ISSUE IS THE SMALL COASTAL
POP. IT`S PAINFULLY APPARENT THAT THE ENTIRE GLOBAL AND HIGH-RES
LOCAL/MESO MODEL SUITE IS MUCH...MUCH TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH THE LIGHT
PRECIP FCST TO DEVELOP OVER THE ATLC AND ITS ADVECTION ONSHORE. JUST
ABOUT EVERY PIECE OF GUIDANCE HAD -SHRA REACHING THE COAST BY 03Z...
YET THE 88D IS ECHO FREE WELL UPSTREAM OVER THE ATLC ATTM. HAD MADE
A LATE AFTN ADJUSTMENT TO GRIDS/ZFP TO PUSH TIMING OF ONSET OVER THE
ATLC BACK TO 04Z AND ALONG THE COAST AROUND 08Z...AND THIS APPEARS
TO BE WORKING OUT WELL THUS FAR. STILL EXPECTING ENHANCED COASTAL
CONVERGENCE INVOF THERMALLY INDUCED INVERTED COASTAL TROUGH COUPLED
WITH SHALLOW MODIFICATION OF LOW LEVEL AIR MASS TO EVENTUALLY ALLOW
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS/SPRINKLES TO BREAK OUT OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS
AND QUICKLY PUSH ONSHORE TOWARD SUNRISE.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. BKN035-045 SPREADING INLAND FROM THE COAST WITH
AREAS OVC040 SPREAD NWD SUA-MLB. VFR CIGS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INLAND
AFT 06Z...WITH --SHRA/-SHRA DVLPG OVER THE ATLC BY THAT TIME...
AND EXPECTED TO INVOF THE COASTAL AERODROMES BY 09Z-12Z. VCSH FOR
MOST AREAS (LOWEST CHC LEE-ISM) DVLPG BY 15Z-16Z.

&&

.MARINE...NO CHGS. SOLID SCA CONDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH SEA BUILDING TO 5-7FT NEAR SHORE AND 7-10FT OFFSHORE AS
NRLY WINDS OF 20-25KT VEER TO NE.

&&

UPDATE/AVIATION...CRISTALDI
IMPACT WEATHER...LASCODY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016/

...COOL/UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEKEND THEN TURNING EVEN COOLER
NEXT WEEK...

SAT...POSITIVE TILT S/W TROUGH ACROSS WILL MOVE FROM E TX TWD LA/AL
WITH INCREASING DEEP LAYER LIFT EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE TROUGH OVER
THE SRN PENINSULA IN THE AFTERNOON. LOW LVL FLOW WILL VEER TO
ONSHORE WITH SOME LOW LVL CONVERGENCE FAVORED ACROSS VOLUSIA COUNTY
IN THE MORNING. EXPECT MARINE STRATOCU TO HAVE PUSHED WELL INLAND BY
MORNING WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. EXPECT SLIGHTLY HIGHER COVERAGE OF
AFTERNOON SHOWERS ACROSS SRN SECTIONS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON NEAR
DEVELOPING LOW OFF THE SE FL COAST TWD EVENING. OVERALL EXPECTED
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WITH MILDER HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 60S NRN
AREAS AND LWR-MID 70S SOUTH.

SAT NIGHT-SUN (MODIFIED PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)...ACTIVE SOUTHERN
JET STREAM PATTERN CONTINUES AS DEEPENING S/W TROUGH APPROACHES
THE NORTHERN GULF AND FLORIDA. THIS WILL DEVELOP AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE SE FL COAST THAT WILL QUICKLY INTENSIFY AS IT
LIFTS NE SUN. LOW LEVEL E-NE FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AND BECOME N-NE
INTO LATE SAT AFT AND EVE...INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT...RAIN
CHANCES AND CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION. THUNDER REMAINS OUT OF
THE FORECAST AS BEST LIFT AND DYNAMICS REMAIN ALONG AND EAST OF
THE LOW OFF THE FLORIDA COAST. CONTINUED WITH A BLEND OF MOS POPS
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS INDICATED BY SAT AFT (RAIN CHANCES
30-40%)... BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD ALONG COASTAL AREAS INTO SAT
EVENING (UP TO 60-80%). RAIN WILL THEN GRADUALLY PUSH OFFSHORE
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS LOW LIFTS NE. OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS DO NOT
LOOK TOO HIGH WITH THIS SYSTEM...AROUND 0.25-0.75 INCHES MAINLY
ALONG THE EAST COAST COUNTIES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE TREASURE COAST. SUNDAY LOOKS TO
BE DRY AS BREEZY/WINDY N/NW FLOW BEHIND THE EXITING LOW DRAGS
COOLER/DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA.

HIGHS ON SAT CURRENTLY FORECAST TO RANGE FROM LOW-MID 60S ORLANDO
NORTHWARD TO LOW 70S ALONG THE TREASURE COAST. SUNDAY HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
40S WITH UPPER 30S POSSIBLE OVER THE INTERIOR SUNDAY NIGHT.

MON-THU...COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WORK
WEEK AS SERIES OF COLD/REINFORCING FRONTS ALLOW FOR A PREDOMINANT
W/NW FLOW OVER THE REGION. COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT MAY GENERATE ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS BUT OTHERWISE MUCH OF THE
WEEK LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY AS WELL. HIGHS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE MID
60S MON...THEN 50S TO LOW 60S TUE/WED AND BACK TO LOW-MID 60S THU.
LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 40S...EXCEPT FOR AREAS OF MID-UPPER 30S
TUE/WED NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION...

MARINE STRATOCU HAS MOVED ONSHORE NEAR THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON
NEAR 3 KFT AND WILL PUSH GRADUALLY INLAND OVERNIGHT. HIGHER CHC
FOR BKN CIGS NEAR THE EAST COAST TERMINALS WITH SOME VERY LIGHT
SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT ALONG THE E COAST. INCLUDED VCSH AT
KDAB/KSUA FOR SAT MORNING WHERE HIGHER PRECIP CHANCES ARE EXPECTED
TO START THE DAY...THOUGH COVERAGE OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO BE
LOW WITH LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS.

&&

.MARINE...

TONIGHT-SAT...N WINDS NEAR 20 KNOTS ACROSS THE WATERS INTO LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL VEER OVERNIGHT AND DECREASE TO 15 KNOTS
BY MORNING. WILL LEAVE CURRENT SCA IN PLACE AND LET EVENING SHIFT
ASSESS TRENDS FOR ANY NEEDED ADJUSTMENTS. MAY NEED TO EXTEND
ADVISORY TO GULF STREAM INTO SATURDAY MORNING BASED ON CURRENT FCST.
ON SAT...ONSHORE FLOW TO 10-15 KNOTS WILL DECREASE SOME INTO THE
AFTERNOON WITH SEAS TO 4-5 FT NEARSHORE AND AROUND 6 FT OFFSHORE.

SAT-SUN...AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP OFF THE SE FL
COAST LATE SAT AND QUICKLY INTENSIFY INTO SAT NIGHT-SUN AS IT LIFTS
NE. WINDS INITIALLY OUT OF THE E/NE SAT MORNING AROUND 10-15 KNOTS
WILL BECOME N/NW AND RAPIDLY INCREASE INTO SAT NIGHT WITH HAZARDOUS
...POTENTIALLY VERY HAZARDOUS...BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE
ENTIRE COASTAL WATERS BY LATE SAT NIGHT...CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY.

MON-TUE...POOR TO HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION MON NIGHT
WHICH WILL STRENGTHEN WESTERLY WINDS AND KEEP SEAS ELEVATED
OFFSHORE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE WILL RECOVER SATURDAY AS
A STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND MOVES OFF THE EAST
COAST OF FLORIDA. HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WILL RESIDE ALONG THE EAST
COAST SATURDAY NIGHT. ON SUNDAY...GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
USHER IN COOLER AND DRIER AIR DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH LOW MIN
RH`S FALLING INTO THE 30S FOR AT LEAST A FEW HOURS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  50  66  47  57 /  20  30  60  10
MCO  49  72  47  58 /  10  30  60  10
MLB  53  71  51  60 /  20  30  70  10
VRB  55  73  52  60 /  20  40  70  10
LEE  45  67  43  58 /  10  30  50  10
SFB  48  68  46  58 /  10  30  60  10
ORL  50  69  46  58 /  10  30  60  10
FPR  55  74  52  60 /  20  40  70  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR FLAGLER BEACH
     TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM-FLAGLER BEACH TO
     VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-SEBASTIAN INLET TO
     JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM-SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20-
     60 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20
     NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.

&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KMLB 052004
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
304 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.DISCUSSION...

...HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS INTO TONIGHT...
...COOLER/UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEKEND THEN TURNING EVEN COOLER
NEXT WEEK...

TONIGHT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL SHIFT FROM THE ALABAMA TWD
THE CAROLINAS BY LATE TONIGHT WITH NORTHERLY WINDS BECOMING NE/ENE
ALONG THE COAST LATE. MARINE STRATOCU WILL PUSH ONSHORE THIS EVENING
AND MAKE IT INTO THE INTERIOR OVERNIGHT. NAM MODEL IS MORE AGGRESSIVE
ALLOWING ATLC SHOWERS TO MAKE IT INTO THE INTERIOR BUT WILL TREND
CLOSER TO THE GFS/ECMWF GUID WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A LIGHT SHOWER
ALONG THE COAST PAST LATE EVENING. LOWS 50S ACROSS CSTL AREAS AND 45-
50 OVER THE INTERIOR.

SAT...POSITIVE TILT S/W TROUGH ACROSS WILL MOVE FROM E TX TWD LA/AL
WITH INCREASING DEEP LAYER LIFT EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE TROUGH OVER
THE SRN PENINSULA IN THE AFTERNOON. LOW LVL FLOW WILL VEER TO
ONSHORE WITH SOME LOW LVL CONVERGENCE FAVORED ACROSS VOLUSIA COUNTY
IN THE MORNING. EXPECT MARINE STRATOCU TO HAVE PUSHED WELL INLAND BY
MORNING WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. EXPECT SLIGHTLY HIGHER COVERAGE OF
AFTERNOON SHOWERS ACROSS SRN SECTIONS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON NEAR
DEVELOPING LOW OFF THE SE FL COAST TWD EVENING. OVERALL EXPECTED
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WITH MILDER HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 60S NRN
AREAS AND LWR-MID 70S SOUTH.

SAT NIGHT-SUN (MODIFIED PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)...ACTIVE SOUTHERN
JET STREAM PATTERN CONTINUES AS DEEPENING S/W TROUGH APPROACHES
THE NORTHERN GULF AND FLORIDA. THIS WILL DEVELOP AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE SE FL COAST THAT WILL QUICKLY INTENSIFY AS IT
LIFTS NE SUN. LOW LEVEL E-NE FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AND BECOME N-NE
INTO LATE SAT AFT AND EVE...INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT...RAIN
CHANCES AND CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION. THUNDER REMAINS OUT OF
THE FORECAST AS BEST LIFT AND DYNAMICS REMAIN ALONG AND EAST OF
THE LOW OFF THE FLORIDA COAST. CONTINUED WITH A BLEND OF MOS POPS
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS INDICATED BY SAT AFT (RAIN CHANCES
30-40%)... BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD ALONG COASTAL AREAS INTO SAT
EVENING (UP TO 60-80%). RAIN WILL THEN GRADUALLY PUSH OFFSHORE
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS LOW LIFTS NE. OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS DO NOT
LOOK TOO HIGH WITH THIS SYSTEM...AROUND 0.25-0.75 INCHES MAINLY
ALONG THE EAST COAST COUNTIES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE TREASURE COAST. SUNDAY LOOKS TO
BE DRY AS BREEZY/WINDY N/NW FLOW BEHIND THE EXITING LOW DRAGS
COOLER/DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA.

HIGHS ON SAT CURRENTLY FORECAST TO RANGE FROM LOW-MID 60S ORLANDO
NORTHWARD TO LOW 70S ALONG THE TREASURE COAST. SUNDAY HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
40S WITH UPPER 30S POSSIBLE OVER THE INTERIOR SUNDAY NIGHT.

MON-THU...COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WORK
WEEK AS SERIES OF COLD/REINFORCING FRONTS ALLOW FOR A PREDOMINANT
W/NW FLOW OVER THE REGION. COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT MAY GENERATE ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS BUT OTHERWISE MUCH OF THE
WEEK LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY AS WELL. HIGHS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE MID
60S MON...THEN 50S TO LOW 60S TUE/WED AND BACK TO LOW-MID 60S THU.
LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 40S...EXCEPT FOR AREAS OF MID-UPPER 30S
TUE/WED NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION...

MARINE STRATOCU HAS MOVED ONSHORE NEAR THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON
NEAR 3 KFT AND WILL PUSH GRADUALLY INLAND OVERNIGHT. HIGHER CHC
FOR BKN CIGS NEAR THE EAST COAST TERMINALS WITH SOME VERY LIGHT
SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT ALONG THE E COAST. INCLUDED VCSH AT
KDAB/KSUA FOR SAT MORNING WHERE HIGHER PRECIP CHANCES ARE EXPECTED
TO START THE DAY...THOUGH COVERAGE OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO BE
LOW WITH LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS.

&&

.MARINE...

TONIGHT-SAT...N WINDS NEAR 20 KNOTS ACROSS THE WATERS INTO LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL VEER OVERNIGHT AND DECREASE TO 15 KNOTS
BY MORNING. WILL LEAVE CURRENT SCA IN PLACE AND LET EVENING SHIFT
ASSESS TRENDS FOR ANY NEEDED ADJUSTMENTS. MAY NEED TO EXTEND
ADVISORY TO GULF STREAM INTO SATURDAY MORNING BASED ON CURRENT FCST.
ON SAT...ONSHORE FLOW TO 10-15 KNOTS WILL DECREASE SOME INTO THE
AFTERNOON WITH SEAS TO 4-5 FT NEARSHORE AND AROUND 6 FT OFFSHORE.

SAT-SUN...AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP OFF THE SE FL
COAST LATE SAT AND QUICKLY INTENSIFY INTO SAT NIGHT-SUN AS IT LIFTS
NE. WINDS INITIALLY OUT OF THE E/NE SAT MORNING AROUND 10-15 KNOTS
WILL BECOME N/NW AND RAPIDLY INCREASE INTO SAT NIGHT WITH HAZARDOUS
...POTENTIALLY VERY HAZARDOUS...BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE
ENTIRE COASTAL WATERS BY LATE SAT NIGHT...CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY.

MON-TUE...POOR TO HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION MON NIGHT
WHICH WILL STRENGTHEN WESTERLY WINDS AND KEEP SEAS ELEVATED
OFFSHORE.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE WILL RECOVER SATURDAY AS
A STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND MOVES OFF THE EAST
COAST OF FLORIDA. HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WILL RESIDE ALONG THE EAST
COAST SATURDAY NIGHT. ON SUNDAY...GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
USHER IN COOLER AND DRIER AIR DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH LOW MIN
RH`S FALLING INTO THE 30S FOR AT LEAST A FEW HOURS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  50  66  47  57 /  20  30  60  10
MCO  49  72  47  58 /  10  30  60  10
MLB  53  71  51  60 /  20  30  70  10
VRB  55  73  52  60 /  20  40  70  10
LEE  45  67  43  58 /  10  30  50  10
SFB  48  68  46  58 /  10  30  60  10
ORL  50  69  46  58 /  10  30  60  10
FPR  55  74  52  60 /  20  40  70  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL
     VOLUSIA COUNTY-INDIAN RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA COUNTY-MARTIN-
     NORTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY-OKEECHOBEE-
     ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-SOUTHERN
     LAKE COUNTY-ST. LUCIE.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR FLAGLER BEACH
     TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM-FLAGLER BEACH TO
     VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-SEBASTIAN INLET TO
     JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM-SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20-
     60 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20
     NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.

&&

$$

AVIATION/SHORT TERM...VOLKMER
IMPACT WEATHER/LONG TERM...ULRICH





000
FXUS62 KMLB 051459
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1000 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.DISCUSSION...

...WINDY AND MUCH COOLER TODAY...
...HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH ROUGH
SURF AT AREA BEACHES...
...COOLER/UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEKEND THEN TURNING EVEN COOLER
NEXT WEEK...

.UPDATE...MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES HAVE MOVED DOWN INTO E CENTRAL FL
BEHIND THE SFC COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE NW BAHAMAS
THIS MORNING. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE UPPER 50S ACROSS FAR
NRN LAKE AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES AND IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S FROM
OSCEOLA AND SRN BREVARD COUNTIES DOWN TO OKEECHOBEE AND MARTIN
COUNTIES. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY SUNNY MOST AREAS...BUT MORE
CLOUDINESS MAY LINGER ACROSS COASTAL MARTIN COUNTY INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS
INTO THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND VEER
TO THE NNE/NE TONIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT SHOULD HOLD OFF
UNTIL EVENING OVER THE ATLC BUT MAY AFFECT CSTL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT
WITH SOME -SHRA ACTIVITY.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES. NORTH WINDS 25 KNOTS AND
GUSTY AT BUOY 41009 THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8-9
FT. VERY HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC AND GULF STREAM
WATERS TODAY. ROUGH FOR SMALL BOATS ON THE INTRACOASTAL WATERS
TODAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  59  47  63  45 /   0  20  30  60
MCO  61  49  65  45 /   0  10  30  50
MLB  63  53  69  49 /   0  20  30  80
VRB  64  56  71  51 /   0  20  40  80
LEE  61  43  64  41 /   0  10  30  40
SFB  60  46  63  44 /   0  10  30  60
ORL  61  49  65  45 /   0  10  30  50
FPR  65  58  70  52 /   0  20  40  80

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL
     VOLUSIA COUNTY-INDIAN RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA COUNTY-MARTIN-
     NORTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY-OKEECHOBEE-
     ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-SOUTHERN
     LAKE COUNTY-ST. LUCIE.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR FLAGLER BEACH
     TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM-FLAGLER BEACH TO
     VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-SEBASTIAN INLET TO
     JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM-SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20-
     60 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20
     NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.

&&

$$

VOLKMER/ULRICH





000
FXUS62 KMLB 050801
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
302 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.DISCUSSION...

...GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS TODAY BEHIND THE RECENT STRONG COLD FRONT...
...DETERIORATING MARINE CONDITIONS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH
ROUGH SURF AT AREA BEACHES...
...COOLER/UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEKEND THEN TURNING EVEN COOLER
NEXT WEEK...

CURRENT...A STRONG COLD FRONT LIES JUST SOUTH OF OKEECHOBEE EARLY
THIS MORNING AS IT CONTINUES TO PLOW SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
UNSEASONABLY WARM/MOIST AIRMASS. SHOWERY PRECIPITATION WITH ISOLATED
RUMBLES OF THUNDER HAVE ACCOMPANIED THE BOUNDARY. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL BE OBSERVED BEHIND IT. COOLER/DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
FEED DOWN THE PENINSULA EARLY THIS MORNING AS WELL. IN
FACT...COLDEST WIND CHILL READINGS IN THE U30S WILL BE POSSIBLE
NORTH OF I-4 FOR 1-2 HRS NEAR SUNRISE.

TODAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE IS SOUTHERN TRACK ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PENINSULA/FLORIDA STRAITS THIS MORNING. FAIRLY STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES/SOUTHEAST U.S. OVER
THE NEXT 24 HRS. EARLY MORNING NWRLY WINDS WILL VEER N-NNE THROUGH
THE DAY. WILL ISSUE A LAKE WIND ADVISORY AREAWIDE ACROSS ECFL FOR
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 MPH OR
GREATER. WILL CARRY THIS PRODUCT UNTIL 21Z/4PM...BUT THE NEXT SHIFT
MAY DECIDE TO EXPIRE THIS EARLY IF NECESSARY. THESE WINDS WILL
CREATE ROUGH SURF AND A STRONG LONGSHORE CURRENT AT AREA BEACHES
TODAY. DRY CONDITIONS OVER LAND WITH MUCH COOLER AFTERNOON HIGHS.
EXPECT U50S NORTH OF I-4 WITH L60S MOST EVERYWHERE ELSE...EXCEPT M-
U60S ALONG THE ST. LUCIE/MARTIN COASTS.

TONIGHT...CONTINUED COOL WITH OVERNIGHT MINS IN THE L-M40S
ALONG/NORTH OF I-4...U40S/L50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST OF THE
INTERIOR AND M-U50S ACROSS THE TREASURE COAST. COLDEST WIND CHILL
READINGS IN THE U30S/L40S NORTH OF I-4 TOWARD EARLY SAT MORNING.
SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED DURING THE EVENING BUT FALL BACK
TO 5-10 MPH OVER THE INTERIOR LATE. LOW-LEVEL FLOW ABOVE THE SURFACE
WILL VEER TO ENE OVER THE ATLC WITH WEAK TROUGHING/CONVERGENCE
SETTING UP NEAR THE EAST COAST. EXPECT SOME RETURN OF MOISTURE IN
THE FORM OF MARINE STRATOCU WITH ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS MOVING
IN OFF OF THE ATLC. A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS MAY MAKE IT INLAND AND
INTO THE INTERIOR THOUGH POPS/QPF WILL REMAIN LOW.

SAT-SUN...ROBUST MID-LEVEL S/W TROUGH DIGGING E-SE THROUGH NRN GULF
SAT WILL MOVE INTO FL SAT NIGHT. THIS WILL DEVELOP AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE SE FL COAST THAT WILL QUICKLY INTENSIFY AS IT LIFTS
NE SUN. LOW LEVEL E-NE FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AND BECOME N-NE INTO
LATE SAT AFT AND EVE...INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT...RAIN CHANCES AND
CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION. CONTINUED WITH A BLEND OF MOS POPS
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS INDICATED BY SAT AFT (RAIN CHANCES 30-40%)...
BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD ALONG COASTAL AREAS INTO SAT EVENING (UP TO
70-80%). RAIN WILL THEN GRADUALLY PUSH OFFSHORE INTO LATE SAT NIGHT
AS LOW LIFTS NE. OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS DO NOT LOOK TOO HIGH WITH THIS
SYSTEM...AROUND 0.25-0.75 INCHES MAINLY ALONG THE EAST COAST
COUNTIES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE
DRY AS BREEZY/WINDY N/NW FLOW BEHIND THE EXITING LOW DRAGS
COOLER/DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA.

HIGHS ON SAT CURRENTLY FORECAST TO RANGE FROM LOW-MID 60S ORLANDO
NORTHWARD TO LOW 70S ALONG THE TREASURE COAST. SUNDAY HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
40S WITH UPPER 30S POSSIBLE OVER THE INTERIOR SUNDAY NIGHT.

MON-THU...COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WORK
WEEK AS SERIES OF COLD/REINFORCING FRONTS ALLOW FOR A PREDOMINANT
W/NW FLOW OVER THE REGION. COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT MAY GENERATE ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS BUT OTHERWISE MUCH OF THE
WEEK LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY AS WELL. HIGHS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE MID
60S MON...THEN 50S TO LOW 60S TUE/WED AND BACK TO LOW-MID 60S THU.
LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 40S...EXCEPT FOR AREAS OF MID-UPPER 30S
TUE/WED NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERY PRECIPITATION WILL BE ENDING EARLY THIS MORNING
OVER THE TREASURE COAST AS A STRONG COLD FRONT PLOWS THROUGH THE
AREA. GUSTY NWRLY WINDS WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE FRONT VEERING TO
NORTH AND THEN NNE DURING THE DAY. WHILE WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE
LATE TODAY/THIS EVENING...LLVL MOIST FLOW WILL VEER TO ENE OVERNIGHT
AND COMBINED WITH WEAK COASTAL TROUGHING ALONG THE EAST COAST MAY
SEND ISOLD LOW-TOPPED ATLC SHRA`S ONTO THE COAST WITH A FEW
PENETRATING INLAND TONIGHT. MAINLY VFR CONDS BEHIND THE FRONT/PCPN
INTO THIS EVENING WITH ISOLD MVFR IN SHRA`S TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE EAST COAST.

&&

.MARINE...TODAY-TONIGHT...HAZARDOUS SMALL CRAFT BOATING CONDITIONS
TODAY FOR ALL MARINE LEGS WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN PLACE. A
STRONG COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL
WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING. GUSTY...COLDER NW WINDS OPPOSING THE
WARMER GULF STREAM WILL FOLLOW THE BOUNDARY WITH OCNL GUSTS TO GALE
FORCE OVER THE OPEN ATLC INTO AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON. WIND
DIRECTION WILL VEER TO NORTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN NNE-NE
TONIGHT WITH COASTAL TROUGHING SETTING UP ALONG THE EAST COAST.
ISOLD -SHRA RETURN TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING. SEAS WILL BUILD
THROUGH THE AFTN/EARLY EVENING TO 8-11 FT GULF STREAM/OFFSHORE WITH
SEAS BUILDING 6-9 FT NEAR SHORE.

WHILE WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...SEAS WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED FOR A WHILE LONGER AND SLOWER TO SUBSIDE. AT SOME
POINT FUTURE FORECAST SHIFTS MAY REVERT THE CURRENT SCA TO ONE FOR
SEAS FOR THE GULF STREAM/OFFSHORE WATERS...FOR LATER TONIGHT. THE
ADVISORY NEAR SHORE MAY BE ABLE TO BE CONVERTED INTO CAUTIONARY
STATEMENTS LATER TONIGHT AS WELL.

SAT-SUN...AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP OFF THE SE FL
COAST LATE SAT AND QUICKLY INTENSIFY INTO SAT NIGHT-SUN AS IT LIFTS
NE. WINDS INITIALLY OUT OF THE E/NE SAT MORNING AROUND 10-15 KNOTS
WILL BECOME N/NW AND RAPIDLY INCREASE INTO SAT NIGHT WITH HAZARDOUS
...POTENTIALLY VERY HAZARDOUS...BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE
ENTIRE COASTAL WATERS BY LATE SAT NIGHT...CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY.

MON-TUE...POOR TO HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION MON NIGHT
WHICH WILL STRENGTHEN WESTERLY WINDS AND KEEP SEAS ELEVATED OFFSHORE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...TODAY...COLDER...DRIER CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW BEHIND
A RECENT STRONG COLD FRONT. NORTHERLY 20FT/TRANSPORT WINDS WILL BE
MODERATE-STRONG WITH FREQUENT HIGHER GUSTS TODAY. LOW MIN RH`S THIS
AFTERNOON MAY FALL INTO THE 30S FOR AT LEAST A FEW HOURS WELL INTO
THE INTERIOR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  57  47  63  45 /   0  20  30  60
MCO  61  49  65  45 /   0  10  30  50
MLB  62  53  69  49 /  10  20  30  80
VRB  63  56  71  51 /  10  20  40  80
LEE  60  43  64  41 /   0  10  30  40
SFB  58  46  63  44 /   0  10  30  60
ORL  61  49  65  45 /   0  10  30  50
FPR  64  58  70  52 /  10  20  40  80

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL
     VOLUSIA COUNTY-INDIAN RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA COUNTY-MARTIN-
     NORTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY-OKEECHOBEE-
     ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-SOUTHERN
     LAKE COUNTY-ST. LUCIE.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR FLAGLER BEACH
     TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM-FLAGLER BEACH TO
     VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-SEBASTIAN INLET TO
     JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM-SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20-
     60 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20
     NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...SEDLOCK
LONG TERM/RADAR....WEITLICH





000
FXUS62 KMLB 050240
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
940 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

.UPDATE...
SFC COLD FRONT/ATTENDANT WIND SHIFT HAD REACHED A COCOA BEACH-LAKE
KISSIMMEE-PUNTA GORDA LINE AS OF 02Z/9PM. AREAS OF SHOWERS WITH A
FEW BANDS OF HEAVIER RAIN/ISOLATED STORMS CONTINUE NEAR AND AHEAD OF
THE BOUNDARY WITH OVERALL AREAL COVERAGE DECREASING DURING THE PAST
2-3HR. PRETTY SHARP DROPOFF IN TEMPS WITH L-M70S SOUTH OF THE FRONT
FALLING OFF TO THE L60S AROUND THE I-4 CORRIDOR AND U50S ACROSS NRN
LAKE/VOLUSIA COS.

REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SWD
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA...REACHING LAKE OKEECHOBEE/JUPITER
BY 2-3AM. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SE...DECREASING IN COVERAGE
AS COOLER/DRIER AIR MASS DEEPENS...AND EVENTUALLY SCOURS OUT RESIDUAL
PRECIP/CLOUDS ACROSS ALL BUT THE PERHAPS THE SERNMOST CWA BY SUNRISE.

WILL BE LOWERING POPS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN-CENTRAL CWA
ACROSS THE NORTH-CTRL AS COVERAGE HAS DECREASED SINCE 00Z. ANY OTHER
CHANGES TO TEMPS/WINDS/SKIES WILL BE MINOR.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR TO VFR CIGS AND MVFR TO LCL IFR VSBYS IN CLOUDS/PRECIP INVOF THE
COLD FRONT. SPOTTY IFR (BKN005-008) CIGS IN ST/STFRA ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE FRONT WHICH HAD BEEN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD NORTH OF NRN AERODROMES
EARLIER THIS EVENING HAVE BEEN DECREASING IN COVERAGE WITH TIME. HAVE
CONFINED MENTION OF TEMPO IFR CIGS TO ISM-MCO-TIX NWD THRU ~06-07Z.

&&

.MARINE...NW-NRLY WIND SURGE HAS REACH THE VOLUSIA CO WATERS AND
WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT. SCA
CONDS...PARTICULARLY SEAS...WILL LIKELY BE DELAYED BY A FEW HOURS
PAST WHEN THE SCA GOES INTO EFFECT...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF SEBASTIAN
INLET. NEVERTHELESS....SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN WINDS/SEAS IS ON TAP
ONCE THE COLD POST FRONTAL HIGH STARTS TO FLEX ITS MUSCLE OVER THE
MAOR.

&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...CRISTALDI
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX....LASCODY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016/

...COOLER/UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEKEND THEN TURNING EVEN COOLER
NEXT WEEK...

FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. BUILDS OVER FLORIDA.
EXPECTING WIND AROUND 15 MPH AND GUSTY. HIGHS UPPER 50S ORLANDO
NORTH AND LOW 60S TO THE SOUTH.

FRI NIGHT...SFC HIGH WILL ELONGATE FROM THE DEEP SOUTH TWD THE
CAROLINAS WITH LOW LVL NNE WINDS VEERING TO THE NE/ENE OVER THE ATLC
WITH A TROUGH SETTING UP NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL SUPPORT RETURN OF LOW LVL MOISTURE ONSHORE IN THE FORM OF
MARINE STRATOCU WITH ISOLATED LOW TOPPED SHOWERS MOVING IN OFF THE
ATLC AND SOME MAKING IT INLAND ACROSS THE INTERIOR. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE LWR-MID 40S INTERIOR TO LWR-MID 50S S CSTL SECTIONS.

SAT-SAT NIGHT...NEXT ADVANCING MID LVL S/W TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE
NRN GULF COAST AND ACROSS FL DURING THE NIGHT. THIS WILL INDUCE SFC
CYCLOGENESIS OFFSHORE SAT NIGHT BUT SHOULD SEE DEEPER MOISTURE MOVE
UP FROM S FL SAT AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. WILL CONTINUE A
BLEND OF GUID POPS WHICH FAVORS LOW COVERAGE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
SAT WITH HIGHER COVERAGE ACROSS THE TREASURE COAST SAT EVENING
BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE BY THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. HIGHS WILL REACH
THE LWR 60S FAR NRN SECTIONS TO LWR 70S FOR MARTIN/ST LUCIE
COUNTIES. NW FLOW WILL INCREASE SAT NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
OFFSHORE AND EXPECT QUICK END TO SHOWER CHANCES ONCE THE LOW PULLS
AWAY LATE SAT NIGHT. LOWS IN THE 40S EXPECTED...EXCEPT LWR 50S FOR
THE SRN TREASURE COAST.

SUNDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY AND COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH WINDY
NORTHERLY FLOW ALONG THE COAST IN THE MORNING AND BREEZY IN THE
AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER AROUND 60 NORTH TO THE MID
60S SRN AREAS.

MON-THU...12Z MODELS CONTINUE TREND OF COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS
FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. EXPANSIVE MID-UPPER LVL TROUGH ACROSS THE GRT
LAKES MONDAY WILL SHIFT TWD THE NE QUARTER OF THE COUNTRY INTO MID
WEEK. THIS WILL BRING A (MAINLY) DRY REINFORCING FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUED COOL CONDITIONS INTO MID WEEK AS
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES FROM THE WRN GULF WED TWD FL ON THU. HIGHS
WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 60S...THOUGH COOLER ACROSS THE NORTH TUE ONLY
INTO THE UPPER 50S. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 40S...THOUGH WE COULD
SEE MORE WIDESPREAD MID-UPPER 30S WED NIGHT AS SFC HIGH BUILDS TWD FL
LATE WITH EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED WITH A DRY AIRMASS
IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION...LOW CLOUDS/TEMPO MVFR CIGS AT THE FLORIDA WEST COAST
HAVE WORKED THEIR WAY TO KSFB/SANFORD AND KTTS/SPACE CENTER AND
NORTH. RAIN AT OCALA/KOCF AND SLOWLY WORKING ITS WAY TO KLEE. LOOKS
LIKE A WET AVIATION RUSH FROM 21Z TO 02Z AS THE RAIN WORKS ITS WAY
OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA. PREVAILING MVFR CIGS AFTER 02Z.
AND THE ORLANDO AREA AIRPORTS AROUND 5/22Z.

&&

.MARINE...
CURRENT...SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS BUOY009 AND
BEYOND AND AROUND 15 KNOTS AT SEBASTIAN INLET AND TRIDENT PIER. SEAS
4 TO 5 FEET.

TONIGHT-SAT...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST  WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS SHIFT TO
THE WEST THEN NORTHWEST 20 KNOTS OR MORE NORTH TO SOUTH AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS THE FRONT WORKS ITS WAY DOWN THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS 4
TO 6 FEET AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUILD TO 7 TO 10 FEET BEHIND THE FRONT
AS THE WIND SHIFTS TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH COUNTERING THE GULF
STREAM. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DOWN TO SEBASTIAN INLET TIL LATE EVENING
THEN DOWN TO JUPITER INLET AFTER MIDNIGHT AND SAT GOOD CALL.

FRI NIGHT-SUNDAY...WINDS WILL VEER TO ONSHORE AND WEAKEN INTO
SATURDAY MORNING WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFFSHORE SAT NIGHT AND
BRINING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH GUSTY NW/N WINDS AND A RETURN
TO ADVISORY CONDITIONS INTO SUNDAY. GUID POINTS TO A SOLID 25 KNOTS
LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE WINDS DECREASE INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT.

MON-TUE...ANOTHER REINFORCING MAINLY DRY FRONT WILL CROSS THE
WATERS MONDAY NIGHT WITH STRENGTHENING WESTERLY WINDS MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...KEEPING SEAS HAZARDOUS OFFSHORE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  42  57  46  63 /  80  10  20  40
MCO  47  60  45  67 /  70  10  20  40
MLB  49  64  50  69 /  60  10  20  30
VRB  53  64  53  71 /  60  10  20  30
LEE  40  61  42  63 /  80  10  10  30
SFB  44  58  45  65 /  80  10  20  30
ORL  45  61  46  66 /  80  10  20  30
FPR  55  65  52  72 /  50  10  20  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM UNTIL 4 AM SATURDAY FOR FLAGLER BEACH
     TO JUPITER INLET OUT TO 60 NM.

&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KMLB 050240
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
940 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

.UPDATE...
SFC COLD FRONT/ATTENDANT WIND SHIFT HAD REACHED A COCOA BEACH-LAKE
KISSIMMEE-PUNTA GORDA LINE AS OF 02Z/9PM. AREAS OF SHOWERS WITH A
FEW BANDS OF HEAVIER RAIN/ISOLATED STORMS CONTINUE NEAR AND AHEAD OF
THE BOUNDARY WITH OVERALL AREAL COVERAGE DECREASING DURING THE PAST
2-3HR. PRETTY SHARP DROPOFF IN TEMPS WITH L-M70S SOUTH OF THE FRONT
FALLING OFF TO THE L60S AROUND THE I-4 CORRIDOR AND U50S ACROSS NRN
LAKE/VOLUSIA COS.

REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SWD
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA...REACHING LAKE OKEECHOBEE/JUPITER
BY 2-3AM. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SE...DECREASING IN COVERAGE
AS COOLER/DRIER AIR MASS DEEPENS...AND EVENTUALLY SCOURS OUT RESIDUAL
PRECIP/CLOUDS ACROSS ALL BUT THE PERHAPS THE SERNMOST CWA BY SUNRISE.

WILL BE LOWERING POPS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN-CENTRAL CWA
ACROSS THE NORTH-CTRL AS COVERAGE HAS DECREASED SINCE 00Z. ANY OTHER
CHANGES TO TEMPS/WINDS/SKIES WILL BE MINOR.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR TO VFR CIGS AND MVFR TO LCL IFR VSBYS IN CLOUDS/PRECIP INVOF THE
COLD FRONT. SPOTTY IFR (BKN005-008) CIGS IN ST/STFRA ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE FRONT WHICH HAD BEEN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD NORTH OF NRN AERODROMES
EARLIER THIS EVENING HAVE BEEN DECREASING IN COVERAGE WITH TIME. HAVE
CONFINED MENTION OF TEMPO IFR CIGS TO ISM-MCO-TIX NWD THRU ~06-07Z.

&&

.MARINE...NW-NRLY WIND SURGE HAS REACH THE VOLUSIA CO WATERS AND
WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT. SCA
CONDS...PARTICULARLY SEAS...WILL LIKELY BE DELAYED BY A FEW HOURS
PAST WHEN THE SCA GOES INTO EFFECT...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF SEBASTIAN
INLET. NEVERTHELESS....SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN WINDS/SEAS IS ON TAP
ONCE THE COLD POST FRONTAL HIGH STARTS TO FLEX ITS MUSCLE OVER THE
MAOR.

&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...CRISTALDI
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX....LASCODY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016/

...COOLER/UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEKEND THEN TURNING EVEN COOLER
NEXT WEEK...

FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. BUILDS OVER FLORIDA.
EXPECTING WIND AROUND 15 MPH AND GUSTY. HIGHS UPPER 50S ORLANDO
NORTH AND LOW 60S TO THE SOUTH.

FRI NIGHT...SFC HIGH WILL ELONGATE FROM THE DEEP SOUTH TWD THE
CAROLINAS WITH LOW LVL NNE WINDS VEERING TO THE NE/ENE OVER THE ATLC
WITH A TROUGH SETTING UP NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL SUPPORT RETURN OF LOW LVL MOISTURE ONSHORE IN THE FORM OF
MARINE STRATOCU WITH ISOLATED LOW TOPPED SHOWERS MOVING IN OFF THE
ATLC AND SOME MAKING IT INLAND ACROSS THE INTERIOR. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE LWR-MID 40S INTERIOR TO LWR-MID 50S S CSTL SECTIONS.

SAT-SAT NIGHT...NEXT ADVANCING MID LVL S/W TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE
NRN GULF COAST AND ACROSS FL DURING THE NIGHT. THIS WILL INDUCE SFC
CYCLOGENESIS OFFSHORE SAT NIGHT BUT SHOULD SEE DEEPER MOISTURE MOVE
UP FROM S FL SAT AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. WILL CONTINUE A
BLEND OF GUID POPS WHICH FAVORS LOW COVERAGE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
SAT WITH HIGHER COVERAGE ACROSS THE TREASURE COAST SAT EVENING
BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE BY THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. HIGHS WILL REACH
THE LWR 60S FAR NRN SECTIONS TO LWR 70S FOR MARTIN/ST LUCIE
COUNTIES. NW FLOW WILL INCREASE SAT NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
OFFSHORE AND EXPECT QUICK END TO SHOWER CHANCES ONCE THE LOW PULLS
AWAY LATE SAT NIGHT. LOWS IN THE 40S EXPECTED...EXCEPT LWR 50S FOR
THE SRN TREASURE COAST.

SUNDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY AND COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH WINDY
NORTHERLY FLOW ALONG THE COAST IN THE MORNING AND BREEZY IN THE
AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER AROUND 60 NORTH TO THE MID
60S SRN AREAS.

MON-THU...12Z MODELS CONTINUE TREND OF COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS
FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. EXPANSIVE MID-UPPER LVL TROUGH ACROSS THE GRT
LAKES MONDAY WILL SHIFT TWD THE NE QUARTER OF THE COUNTRY INTO MID
WEEK. THIS WILL BRING A (MAINLY) DRY REINFORCING FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUED COOL CONDITIONS INTO MID WEEK AS
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES FROM THE WRN GULF WED TWD FL ON THU. HIGHS
WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 60S...THOUGH COOLER ACROSS THE NORTH TUE ONLY
INTO THE UPPER 50S. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 40S...THOUGH WE COULD
SEE MORE WIDESPREAD MID-UPPER 30S WED NIGHT AS SFC HIGH BUILDS TWD FL
LATE WITH EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED WITH A DRY AIRMASS
IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION...LOW CLOUDS/TEMPO MVFR CIGS AT THE FLORIDA WEST COAST
HAVE WORKED THEIR WAY TO KSFB/SANFORD AND KTTS/SPACE CENTER AND
NORTH. RAIN AT OCALA/KOCF AND SLOWLY WORKING ITS WAY TO KLEE. LOOKS
LIKE A WET AVIATION RUSH FROM 21Z TO 02Z AS THE RAIN WORKS ITS WAY
OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA. PREVAILING MVFR CIGS AFTER 02Z.
AND THE ORLANDO AREA AIRPORTS AROUND 5/22Z.

&&

.MARINE...
CURRENT...SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS BUOY009 AND
BEYOND AND AROUND 15 KNOTS AT SEBASTIAN INLET AND TRIDENT PIER. SEAS
4 TO 5 FEET.

TONIGHT-SAT...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST  WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS SHIFT TO
THE WEST THEN NORTHWEST 20 KNOTS OR MORE NORTH TO SOUTH AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS THE FRONT WORKS ITS WAY DOWN THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS 4
TO 6 FEET AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUILD TO 7 TO 10 FEET BEHIND THE FRONT
AS THE WIND SHIFTS TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH COUNTERING THE GULF
STREAM. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DOWN TO SEBASTIAN INLET TIL LATE EVENING
THEN DOWN TO JUPITER INLET AFTER MIDNIGHT AND SAT GOOD CALL.

FRI NIGHT-SUNDAY...WINDS WILL VEER TO ONSHORE AND WEAKEN INTO
SATURDAY MORNING WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFFSHORE SAT NIGHT AND
BRINING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH GUSTY NW/N WINDS AND A RETURN
TO ADVISORY CONDITIONS INTO SUNDAY. GUID POINTS TO A SOLID 25 KNOTS
LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE WINDS DECREASE INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT.

MON-TUE...ANOTHER REINFORCING MAINLY DRY FRONT WILL CROSS THE
WATERS MONDAY NIGHT WITH STRENGTHENING WESTERLY WINDS MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...KEEPING SEAS HAZARDOUS OFFSHORE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  42  57  46  63 /  80  10  20  40
MCO  47  60  45  67 /  70  10  20  40
MLB  49  64  50  69 /  60  10  20  30
VRB  53  64  53  71 /  60  10  20  30
LEE  40  61  42  63 /  80  10  10  30
SFB  44  58  45  65 /  80  10  20  30
ORL  45  61  46  66 /  80  10  20  30
FPR  55  65  52  72 /  50  10  20  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM UNTIL 4 AM SATURDAY FOR FLAGLER BEACH
     TO JUPITER INLET OUT TO 60 NM.

&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KMLB 041945
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
245 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

.DISCUSSION...

...COOLER/UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEKEND THEN TURNING EVEN COOLER
NEXT WEEK...

CURRENT...COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH EAST OVER NORTH
FLORIDA...JUST ENTERING MARION COUNTY/OCALA AREA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE HAS BEEN A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES RECORDED PRIMARILY
OFF THE FLORIDA WEST COAST NORTH OF TAMPA. MAINLY NORTH OF A
JACKSONVILLE CEDAR KEY LINE FOR NOW. ALL ESTIMATES OF FRONT`S
FORWARD SPEED HAVE BEEN A SLOW EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 8 TO 10 MPH.

THIS AFTERNOON...TIME OF ARRIVAL TOOL ESTIMATES ARRIVAL TIME OF THE
RAIN SHIELD AROUND AROUND 3-4 PM THE LEESBURG AREA AND AROUND 6 PM
(RUSH HOUR) FOR THE ORLANDO METRO AREA. REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH
THE HRRR AND THE LOCAL WRF MODELS. RAIN SPREADS SLOWLY ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

TONIGHT...SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE RAIN THROUGH THE EVENING. THE VARIOUS
SHORT TERM MODELS...HRRR/LOCAL WRF/GFS20...HAVE THE RAIN AND THE
500MB TROUGH EXITING THE SOUTHERN AREA BY 7 AM FRI MORNING. INITIAL
SHOT OF COOL AIR ADVECTION DROPS LOWS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 4/ORLANDO
DOWN TO THE LOW AND MID 40S. WHERE THE FRONT HAS YET TO MOVE
THROUGH...ORLANDO SOUTH...LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S.

FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. BUILDS OVER FLORIDA.
EXPECTING WIND AROUND 15 MPH AND GUSTY. HIGHS UPPER 50S ORLANDO
NORTH AND LOW 60S TO THE SOUTH.

FRI NIGHT...SFC HIGH WILL ELONGATE FROM THE DEEP SOUTH TWD THE
CAROLINAS WITH LOW LVL NNE WINDS VEERING TO THE NE/ENE OVER THE ATLC
WITH A TROUGH SETTING UP NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL SUPPORT RETURN OF LOW LVL MOISTURE ONSHORE IN THE FORM OF
MARINE STRATOCU WITH ISOLATED LOW TOPPED SHOWERS MOVING IN OFF THE
ATLC AND SOME MAKING IT INLAND ACROSS THE INTERIOR. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE LWR-MID 40S INTERIOR TO LWR-MID 50S S CSTL SECTIONS.

SAT-SAT NIGHT...NEXT ADVANCING MID LVL S/W TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE
NRN GULF COAST AND ACROSS FL DURING THE NIGHT. THIS WILL INDUCE SFC
CYCLOGENESIS OFFSHORE SAT NIGHT BUT SHOULD SEE DEEPER MOISTURE MOVE
UP FROM S FL SAT AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. WILL CONTINUE A
BLEND OF GUID POPS WHICH FAVORS LOW COVERAGE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
SAT WITH HIGHER COVERAGE ACROSS THE TREASURE COAST SAT EVENING
BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE BY THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. HIGHS WILL REACH
THE LWR 60S FAR NRN SECTIONS TO LWR 70S FOR MARTIN/ST LUCIE
COUNTIES. NW FLOW WILL INCREASE SAT NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
OFFSHORE AND EXPECT QUICK END TO SHOWER CHANCES ONCE THE LOW PULLS
AWAY LATE SAT NIGHT. LOWS IN THE 40S EXPECTED...EXCEPT LWR 50S FOR
THE SRN TREASURE COAST.

SUNDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY AND COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH WINDY
NORTHERLY FLOW ALONG THE COAST IN THE MORNING AND BREEZY IN THE
AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER AROUND 60 NORTH TO THE MID
60S SRN AREAS.

MON-THU...12Z MODELS CONTINUE TREND OF COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS
FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. EXPANSIVE MID-UPPER LVL TROUGH ACROSS THE GRT
LAKES MONDAY WILL SHIFT TWD THE NE QUARTER OF THE COUNTRY INTO MID
WEEK. THIS WILL BRING A (MAINLY) DRY REINFORCING FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUED COOL CONDITIONS INTO MID WEEK AS
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES FROM THE WRN GULF WED TWD FL ON THU. HIGHS
WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 60S...THOUGH COOLER ACROSS THE NORTH TUE ONLY
INTO THE UPPER 50S. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 40S...THOUGH WE COULD
SEE MORE WIDESPREAD MID-UPPER 30S WED NIGHT AS SFC HIGH BUILDS TWD FL
LATE WITH EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED WITH A DRY AIRMASS
IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION...LOW CLOUDS/TEMPO MVFR CIGS AT THE FLORIDA WEST COAST
HAVE WORKED THEIR WAY TO KSFB/SANFORD AND KTTS/SPACE CENTER AND
NORTH. RAIN AT OCALA/KOCF AND SLOWLY WORKING ITS WAY TO KLEE. LOOKS
LIKE A WET AVIATION RUSH FROM 21Z TO 02Z AS THE RAIN WORKS ITS WAY
OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA. PREVAILING MVFR CIGS AFTER 02Z.
AND THE ORLANDO AREA AIRPORTS AROUND 5/22Z.

&&

.MARINE...
CURRENT...SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS BUOY009 AND
BEYOND AND AROUND 15 KNOTS AT SEBASTIAN INLET AND TRIDENT PIER. SEAS
4 TO 5 FEET.

TONIGHT-SAT...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST  WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS SHIFT TO
THE WEST THEN NORTHWEST 20 KNOTS OR MORE NORTH TO SOUTH AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS THE FRONT WORKS ITS WAY DOWN THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS 4
TO 6 FEET AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUILD TO 7 TO 10 FEET BEHIND THE FRONT
AS THE WIND SHIFTS TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH COUNTERING THE GULF
STREAM. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DOWN TO SEBASTIAN INLET TIL LATE EVENING
THEN DOWN TO JUPITER INLET AFTER MIDNIGHT AND SAT GOOD CALL.

FRI NIGHT-SUNDAY...WINDS WILL VEER TO ONSHORE AND WEAKEN INTO
SATURDAY MORNING WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFFSHORE SAT NIGHT AND
BRINING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH GUSTY NW/N WINDS AND A RETURN
TO ADVISORY CONDITIONS INTO SUNDAY. GUID POINTS TO A SOLID 25 KNOTS
LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE WINDS DECREASE INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT.

MON-TUE...ANOTHER REINFORCING MAINLY DRY FRONT WILL CROSS THE
WATERS MONDAY NIGHT WITH STRENGTHENING WESTERLY WINDS MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...KEEPING SEAS HAZARDOUS OFFSHORE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  42  57  46  63 /  80  10  20  40
MCO  47  60  45  67 /  70  10  20  40
MLB  49  64  50  69 /  60  10  20  30
VRB  53  64  53  71 /  60  10  20  30
LEE  40  61  42  63 /  80  10  10  30
SFB  44  58  45  65 /  80  10  20  30
ORL  45  61  46  66 /  80  10  20  30
FPR  55  65  52  72 /  50  10  20  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM-
     FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-
     VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM-
     VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM-
     SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...WIMMER
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX....VOLKMER





000
FXUS62 KMLB 041945
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
245 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

.DISCUSSION...

...COOLER/UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEKEND THEN TURNING EVEN COOLER
NEXT WEEK...

CURRENT...COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH EAST OVER NORTH
FLORIDA...JUST ENTERING MARION COUNTY/OCALA AREA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE HAS BEEN A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES RECORDED PRIMARILY
OFF THE FLORIDA WEST COAST NORTH OF TAMPA. MAINLY NORTH OF A
JACKSONVILLE CEDAR KEY LINE FOR NOW. ALL ESTIMATES OF FRONT`S
FORWARD SPEED HAVE BEEN A SLOW EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 8 TO 10 MPH.

THIS AFTERNOON...TIME OF ARRIVAL TOOL ESTIMATES ARRIVAL TIME OF THE
RAIN SHIELD AROUND AROUND 3-4 PM THE LEESBURG AREA AND AROUND 6 PM
(RUSH HOUR) FOR THE ORLANDO METRO AREA. REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH
THE HRRR AND THE LOCAL WRF MODELS. RAIN SPREADS SLOWLY ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

TONIGHT...SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE RAIN THROUGH THE EVENING. THE VARIOUS
SHORT TERM MODELS...HRRR/LOCAL WRF/GFS20...HAVE THE RAIN AND THE
500MB TROUGH EXITING THE SOUTHERN AREA BY 7 AM FRI MORNING. INITIAL
SHOT OF COOL AIR ADVECTION DROPS LOWS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 4/ORLANDO
DOWN TO THE LOW AND MID 40S. WHERE THE FRONT HAS YET TO MOVE
THROUGH...ORLANDO SOUTH...LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S.

FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. BUILDS OVER FLORIDA.
EXPECTING WIND AROUND 15 MPH AND GUSTY. HIGHS UPPER 50S ORLANDO
NORTH AND LOW 60S TO THE SOUTH.

FRI NIGHT...SFC HIGH WILL ELONGATE FROM THE DEEP SOUTH TWD THE
CAROLINAS WITH LOW LVL NNE WINDS VEERING TO THE NE/ENE OVER THE ATLC
WITH A TROUGH SETTING UP NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL SUPPORT RETURN OF LOW LVL MOISTURE ONSHORE IN THE FORM OF
MARINE STRATOCU WITH ISOLATED LOW TOPPED SHOWERS MOVING IN OFF THE
ATLC AND SOME MAKING IT INLAND ACROSS THE INTERIOR. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE LWR-MID 40S INTERIOR TO LWR-MID 50S S CSTL SECTIONS.

SAT-SAT NIGHT...NEXT ADVANCING MID LVL S/W TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE
NRN GULF COAST AND ACROSS FL DURING THE NIGHT. THIS WILL INDUCE SFC
CYCLOGENESIS OFFSHORE SAT NIGHT BUT SHOULD SEE DEEPER MOISTURE MOVE
UP FROM S FL SAT AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. WILL CONTINUE A
BLEND OF GUID POPS WHICH FAVORS LOW COVERAGE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
SAT WITH HIGHER COVERAGE ACROSS THE TREASURE COAST SAT EVENING
BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE BY THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. HIGHS WILL REACH
THE LWR 60S FAR NRN SECTIONS TO LWR 70S FOR MARTIN/ST LUCIE
COUNTIES. NW FLOW WILL INCREASE SAT NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
OFFSHORE AND EXPECT QUICK END TO SHOWER CHANCES ONCE THE LOW PULLS
AWAY LATE SAT NIGHT. LOWS IN THE 40S EXPECTED...EXCEPT LWR 50S FOR
THE SRN TREASURE COAST.

SUNDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY AND COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH WINDY
NORTHERLY FLOW ALONG THE COAST IN THE MORNING AND BREEZY IN THE
AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER AROUND 60 NORTH TO THE MID
60S SRN AREAS.

MON-THU...12Z MODELS CONTINUE TREND OF COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS
FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. EXPANSIVE MID-UPPER LVL TROUGH ACROSS THE GRT
LAKES MONDAY WILL SHIFT TWD THE NE QUARTER OF THE COUNTRY INTO MID
WEEK. THIS WILL BRING A (MAINLY) DRY REINFORCING FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUED COOL CONDITIONS INTO MID WEEK AS
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES FROM THE WRN GULF WED TWD FL ON THU. HIGHS
WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 60S...THOUGH COOLER ACROSS THE NORTH TUE ONLY
INTO THE UPPER 50S. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 40S...THOUGH WE COULD
SEE MORE WIDESPREAD MID-UPPER 30S WED NIGHT AS SFC HIGH BUILDS TWD FL
LATE WITH EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED WITH A DRY AIRMASS
IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION...LOW CLOUDS/TEMPO MVFR CIGS AT THE FLORIDA WEST COAST
HAVE WORKED THEIR WAY TO KSFB/SANFORD AND KTTS/SPACE CENTER AND
NORTH. RAIN AT OCALA/KOCF AND SLOWLY WORKING ITS WAY TO KLEE. LOOKS
LIKE A WET AVIATION RUSH FROM 21Z TO 02Z AS THE RAIN WORKS ITS WAY
OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA. PREVAILING MVFR CIGS AFTER 02Z.
AND THE ORLANDO AREA AIRPORTS AROUND 5/22Z.

&&

.MARINE...
CURRENT...SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS BUOY009 AND
BEYOND AND AROUND 15 KNOTS AT SEBASTIAN INLET AND TRIDENT PIER. SEAS
4 TO 5 FEET.

TONIGHT-SAT...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST  WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS SHIFT TO
THE WEST THEN NORTHWEST 20 KNOTS OR MORE NORTH TO SOUTH AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS THE FRONT WORKS ITS WAY DOWN THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS 4
TO 6 FEET AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUILD TO 7 TO 10 FEET BEHIND THE FRONT
AS THE WIND SHIFTS TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH COUNTERING THE GULF
STREAM. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DOWN TO SEBASTIAN INLET TIL LATE EVENING
THEN DOWN TO JUPITER INLET AFTER MIDNIGHT AND SAT GOOD CALL.

FRI NIGHT-SUNDAY...WINDS WILL VEER TO ONSHORE AND WEAKEN INTO
SATURDAY MORNING WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFFSHORE SAT NIGHT AND
BRINING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH GUSTY NW/N WINDS AND A RETURN
TO ADVISORY CONDITIONS INTO SUNDAY. GUID POINTS TO A SOLID 25 KNOTS
LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE WINDS DECREASE INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT.

MON-TUE...ANOTHER REINFORCING MAINLY DRY FRONT WILL CROSS THE
WATERS MONDAY NIGHT WITH STRENGTHENING WESTERLY WINDS MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...KEEPING SEAS HAZARDOUS OFFSHORE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  42  57  46  63 /  80  10  20  40
MCO  47  60  45  67 /  70  10  20  40
MLB  49  64  50  69 /  60  10  20  30
VRB  53  64  53  71 /  60  10  20  30
LEE  40  61  42  63 /  80  10  10  30
SFB  44  58  45  65 /  80  10  20  30
ORL  45  61  46  66 /  80  10  20  30
FPR  55  65  52  72 /  50  10  20  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM-
     FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-
     VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM-
     VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM-
     SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...WIMMER
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX....VOLKMER





000
FXUS62 KMLB 041945
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
245 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

.DISCUSSION...

...COOLER/UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEKEND THEN TURNING EVEN COOLER
NEXT WEEK...

CURRENT...COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH EAST OVER NORTH
FLORIDA...JUST ENTERING MARION COUNTY/OCALA AREA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE HAS BEEN A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES RECORDED PRIMARILY
OFF THE FLORIDA WEST COAST NORTH OF TAMPA. MAINLY NORTH OF A
JACKSONVILLE CEDAR KEY LINE FOR NOW. ALL ESTIMATES OF FRONT`S
FORWARD SPEED HAVE BEEN A SLOW EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 8 TO 10 MPH.

THIS AFTERNOON...TIME OF ARRIVAL TOOL ESTIMATES ARRIVAL TIME OF THE
RAIN SHIELD AROUND AROUND 3-4 PM THE LEESBURG AREA AND AROUND 6 PM
(RUSH HOUR) FOR THE ORLANDO METRO AREA. REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH
THE HRRR AND THE LOCAL WRF MODELS. RAIN SPREADS SLOWLY ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

TONIGHT...SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE RAIN THROUGH THE EVENING. THE VARIOUS
SHORT TERM MODELS...HRRR/LOCAL WRF/GFS20...HAVE THE RAIN AND THE
500MB TROUGH EXITING THE SOUTHERN AREA BY 7 AM FRI MORNING. INITIAL
SHOT OF COOL AIR ADVECTION DROPS LOWS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 4/ORLANDO
DOWN TO THE LOW AND MID 40S. WHERE THE FRONT HAS YET TO MOVE
THROUGH...ORLANDO SOUTH...LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S.

FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. BUILDS OVER FLORIDA.
EXPECTING WIND AROUND 15 MPH AND GUSTY. HIGHS UPPER 50S ORLANDO
NORTH AND LOW 60S TO THE SOUTH.

FRI NIGHT...SFC HIGH WILL ELONGATE FROM THE DEEP SOUTH TWD THE
CAROLINAS WITH LOW LVL NNE WINDS VEERING TO THE NE/ENE OVER THE ATLC
WITH A TROUGH SETTING UP NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL SUPPORT RETURN OF LOW LVL MOISTURE ONSHORE IN THE FORM OF
MARINE STRATOCU WITH ISOLATED LOW TOPPED SHOWERS MOVING IN OFF THE
ATLC AND SOME MAKING IT INLAND ACROSS THE INTERIOR. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE LWR-MID 40S INTERIOR TO LWR-MID 50S S CSTL SECTIONS.

SAT-SAT NIGHT...NEXT ADVANCING MID LVL S/W TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE
NRN GULF COAST AND ACROSS FL DURING THE NIGHT. THIS WILL INDUCE SFC
CYCLOGENESIS OFFSHORE SAT NIGHT BUT SHOULD SEE DEEPER MOISTURE MOVE
UP FROM S FL SAT AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. WILL CONTINUE A
BLEND OF GUID POPS WHICH FAVORS LOW COVERAGE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
SAT WITH HIGHER COVERAGE ACROSS THE TREASURE COAST SAT EVENING
BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE BY THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. HIGHS WILL REACH
THE LWR 60S FAR NRN SECTIONS TO LWR 70S FOR MARTIN/ST LUCIE
COUNTIES. NW FLOW WILL INCREASE SAT NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
OFFSHORE AND EXPECT QUICK END TO SHOWER CHANCES ONCE THE LOW PULLS
AWAY LATE SAT NIGHT. LOWS IN THE 40S EXPECTED...EXCEPT LWR 50S FOR
THE SRN TREASURE COAST.

SUNDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY AND COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH WINDY
NORTHERLY FLOW ALONG THE COAST IN THE MORNING AND BREEZY IN THE
AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER AROUND 60 NORTH TO THE MID
60S SRN AREAS.

MON-THU...12Z MODELS CONTINUE TREND OF COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS
FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. EXPANSIVE MID-UPPER LVL TROUGH ACROSS THE GRT
LAKES MONDAY WILL SHIFT TWD THE NE QUARTER OF THE COUNTRY INTO MID
WEEK. THIS WILL BRING A (MAINLY) DRY REINFORCING FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUED COOL CONDITIONS INTO MID WEEK AS
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES FROM THE WRN GULF WED TWD FL ON THU. HIGHS
WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 60S...THOUGH COOLER ACROSS THE NORTH TUE ONLY
INTO THE UPPER 50S. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 40S...THOUGH WE COULD
SEE MORE WIDESPREAD MID-UPPER 30S WED NIGHT AS SFC HIGH BUILDS TWD FL
LATE WITH EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED WITH A DRY AIRMASS
IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION...LOW CLOUDS/TEMPO MVFR CIGS AT THE FLORIDA WEST COAST
HAVE WORKED THEIR WAY TO KSFB/SANFORD AND KTTS/SPACE CENTER AND
NORTH. RAIN AT OCALA/KOCF AND SLOWLY WORKING ITS WAY TO KLEE. LOOKS
LIKE A WET AVIATION RUSH FROM 21Z TO 02Z AS THE RAIN WORKS ITS WAY
OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA. PREVAILING MVFR CIGS AFTER 02Z.
AND THE ORLANDO AREA AIRPORTS AROUND 5/22Z.

&&

.MARINE...
CURRENT...SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS BUOY009 AND
BEYOND AND AROUND 15 KNOTS AT SEBASTIAN INLET AND TRIDENT PIER. SEAS
4 TO 5 FEET.

TONIGHT-SAT...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST  WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS SHIFT TO
THE WEST THEN NORTHWEST 20 KNOTS OR MORE NORTH TO SOUTH AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS THE FRONT WORKS ITS WAY DOWN THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS 4
TO 6 FEET AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUILD TO 7 TO 10 FEET BEHIND THE FRONT
AS THE WIND SHIFTS TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH COUNTERING THE GULF
STREAM. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DOWN TO SEBASTIAN INLET TIL LATE EVENING
THEN DOWN TO JUPITER INLET AFTER MIDNIGHT AND SAT GOOD CALL.

FRI NIGHT-SUNDAY...WINDS WILL VEER TO ONSHORE AND WEAKEN INTO
SATURDAY MORNING WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFFSHORE SAT NIGHT AND
BRINING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH GUSTY NW/N WINDS AND A RETURN
TO ADVISORY CONDITIONS INTO SUNDAY. GUID POINTS TO A SOLID 25 KNOTS
LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE WINDS DECREASE INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT.

MON-TUE...ANOTHER REINFORCING MAINLY DRY FRONT WILL CROSS THE
WATERS MONDAY NIGHT WITH STRENGTHENING WESTERLY WINDS MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...KEEPING SEAS HAZARDOUS OFFSHORE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  42  57  46  63 /  80  10  20  40
MCO  47  60  45  67 /  70  10  20  40
MLB  49  64  50  69 /  60  10  20  30
VRB  53  64  53  71 /  60  10  20  30
LEE  40  61  42  63 /  80  10  10  30
SFB  44  58  45  65 /  80  10  20  30
ORL  45  61  46  66 /  80  10  20  30
FPR  55  65  52  72 /  50  10  20  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM-
     FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-
     VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM-
     VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM-
     SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...WIMMER
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX....VOLKMER




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