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000
FXUS64 KMOB 280516 AAC
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE TO AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1120 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...CURRENT PACKAGE WITHIN TOLERANCES...WITH NO UPDATES
PLANNED ATTM.

/16

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF ISSUANCE...VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST.

/16

&&

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT]...HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION WILL ALLOW FOR THE WINDS TO QUICKLY DROP
OFF TONIGHT. CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS RELAXING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS
INTERIOR MS AND AL COUNTIES WITH UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S CLOSER TO THE
COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST ON WEDNESDAY AND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN TODAY WITH MID 60S ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MS AND LOW 60S FOR LOCATIONS FURTHER EAST. 07/MB

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PROGRESSES EAST ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH A SHORTWAVE MID LEVEL RIDGE MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHEAST. NO RAIN AS A DRY MID LEVEL WEST NORTHWEST FLOW LINGERS. AT
THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE AXIS MOVES EAST...BECOMING POSITIONED
FROM THE MID ATLANTIC AND INTO THE NORTHERN GULF AND BRINGS LIGHT
WINDS TO THE LOCAL AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAIN CHILLY...BUT VERY
CLOSE TO SEASONAL WITH NUMBERS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S INTERIOR TO
LOWER/MID 40S COAST. /10

.LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]...HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST
BREAKS DOWN ON THURSDAY WITH ALL OF THE GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKING PASSAGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST ON
THURSDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE POOLS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL ZONE AND WITH
FRONTAL ASCENT...A SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE IN THE
FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. DRIER AIR FILTERS SOUTHWARD ON FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. TEMPERATURES
TO WARM SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT
THURSDAY...WITH READINGS LOOKING TO RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S
ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA...POSSIBLY BREAKING INTO THE LOWER 70S FOR A
FEW AREAS. TEMPERATURES FALL BACK TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BY FRIDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AS A SERIES
OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS COME INTO
PHASE WITH A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND LIFT
SPREADING EASTWARD TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION BY LATE
SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH AXIS...WHILE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE FORMS IN THE VICINITY OF EASTERN PORTIONS OF TX AND WESTERN
LA BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE LEADING EDGE OF MOISTURE MAY REACH
FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWFA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE
GRADUALLY SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS TOWARD THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHES OUR FORECAST AREA.
FORECASTERS MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH LATEST GUIDANCE NOW SUPPORTING
LIKELY PROSPECTS OF RAIN ON SUNDAY AS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND LIFT
OVERSPREAD THE REGION. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE
COLD FRONT AND AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PROGRESSES EASTWARD. A
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST...IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER...CONTINUES
EARLY NEXT WEEK CONTINUES AS MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS DIFFER ON THE
NORTHWARD EXTENT OF NEXT ROUND OF MOISTURE SPREADING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF BY TUESDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE POSTED IN
THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY.

NEAR SEASONAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MODERATE TO
ABOVE NORMAL ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF FRONT. A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL DAILY
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. 10/21

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK. A TRANSITION TO LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY. LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF
A COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BUILD THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS. 07/MB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      38  63  42  69  46 /  00  00  00  00  20
PENSACOLA   41  61  44  68  49 /  00  00  00  00  20
DESTIN      43  59  46  64  50 /  00  00  00  00  20
EVERGREEN   34  62  36  70  44 /  00  00  00  00  20
WAYNESBORO  35  62  38  71  42 /  00  00  00  00  20
CAMDEN      31  60  35  70  42 /  00  00  00  00  20
CRESTVIEW   35  62  36  69  47 /  00  00  00  00  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMOB 280516 AAC
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE TO AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1120 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...CURRENT PACKAGE WITHIN TOLERANCES...WITH NO UPDATES
PLANNED ATTM.

/16

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF ISSUANCE...VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST.

/16

&&

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT]...HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION WILL ALLOW FOR THE WINDS TO QUICKLY DROP
OFF TONIGHT. CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS RELAXING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS
INTERIOR MS AND AL COUNTIES WITH UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S CLOSER TO THE
COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST ON WEDNESDAY AND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN TODAY WITH MID 60S ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MS AND LOW 60S FOR LOCATIONS FURTHER EAST. 07/MB

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PROGRESSES EAST ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH A SHORTWAVE MID LEVEL RIDGE MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHEAST. NO RAIN AS A DRY MID LEVEL WEST NORTHWEST FLOW LINGERS. AT
THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE AXIS MOVES EAST...BECOMING POSITIONED
FROM THE MID ATLANTIC AND INTO THE NORTHERN GULF AND BRINGS LIGHT
WINDS TO THE LOCAL AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAIN CHILLY...BUT VERY
CLOSE TO SEASONAL WITH NUMBERS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S INTERIOR TO
LOWER/MID 40S COAST. /10

.LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]...HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST
BREAKS DOWN ON THURSDAY WITH ALL OF THE GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKING PASSAGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST ON
THURSDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE POOLS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL ZONE AND WITH
FRONTAL ASCENT...A SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE IN THE
FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. DRIER AIR FILTERS SOUTHWARD ON FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. TEMPERATURES
TO WARM SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT
THURSDAY...WITH READINGS LOOKING TO RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S
ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA...POSSIBLY BREAKING INTO THE LOWER 70S FOR A
FEW AREAS. TEMPERATURES FALL BACK TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BY FRIDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AS A SERIES
OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS COME INTO
PHASE WITH A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND LIFT
SPREADING EASTWARD TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION BY LATE
SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH AXIS...WHILE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE FORMS IN THE VICINITY OF EASTERN PORTIONS OF TX AND WESTERN
LA BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE LEADING EDGE OF MOISTURE MAY REACH
FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWFA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE
GRADUALLY SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS TOWARD THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHES OUR FORECAST AREA.
FORECASTERS MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH LATEST GUIDANCE NOW SUPPORTING
LIKELY PROSPECTS OF RAIN ON SUNDAY AS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND LIFT
OVERSPREAD THE REGION. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE
COLD FRONT AND AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PROGRESSES EASTWARD. A
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST...IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER...CONTINUES
EARLY NEXT WEEK CONTINUES AS MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS DIFFER ON THE
NORTHWARD EXTENT OF NEXT ROUND OF MOISTURE SPREADING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF BY TUESDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE POSTED IN
THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY.

NEAR SEASONAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MODERATE TO
ABOVE NORMAL ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF FRONT. A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL DAILY
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. 10/21

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK. A TRANSITION TO LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY. LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF
A COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BUILD THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS. 07/MB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      38  63  42  69  46 /  00  00  00  00  20
PENSACOLA   41  61  44  68  49 /  00  00  00  00  20
DESTIN      43  59  46  64  50 /  00  00  00  00  20
EVERGREEN   34  62  36  70  44 /  00  00  00  00  20
WAYNESBORO  35  62  38  71  42 /  00  00  00  00  20
CAMDEN      31  60  35  70  42 /  00  00  00  00  20
CRESTVIEW   35  62  36  69  47 /  00  00  00  00  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMOB 280424 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1020 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...CURRENT PACKAGE WITHIN TOLERANCES...WITH NO UPDATES
PLANNED ATTM.

/16

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF ISSUANCE...VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST.

/16

&&

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT]...HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION WILL ALLOW FOR THE WINDS TO QUICKLY DROP
OFF TONIGHT. CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS RELAXING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS
INTERIOR MS AND AL COUNTIES WITH UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S CLOSER TO THE
COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST ON WEDNESDAY AND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN TODAY WITH MID 60S ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MS AND LOW 60S FOR LOCATIONS FURTHER EAST. 07/MB

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PROGRESSES EAST ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH A SHORTWAVE MID LEVEL RIDGE MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHEAST. NO RAIN AS A DRY MID LEVEL WEST NORTHWEST FLOW LINGERS. AT
THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE AXIS MOVES EAST...BECOMING POSITIONED
FROM THE MID ATLANTIC AND INTO THE NORTHERN GULF AND BRINGS LIGHT
WINDS TO THE LOCAL AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAIN CHILLY...BUT VERY
CLOSE TO SEASONAL WITH NUMBERS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S INTERIOR TO
LOWER/MID 40S COAST. /10

.LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]...HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST
BREAKS DOWN ON THURSDAY WITH ALL OF THE GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKING PASSAGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST ON
THURSDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE POOLS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL ZONE AND WITH
FRONTAL ASCENT...A SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE IN THE
FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. DRIER AIR FILTERS SOUTHWARD ON FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. TEMPERATURES
TO WARM SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT
THURSDAY...WITH READINGS LOOKING TO RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S
ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA...POSSIBLY BREAKING INTO THE LOWER 70S FOR A
FEW AREAS. TEMPERATURES FALL BACK TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BY FRIDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AS A SERIES
OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS COME INTO
PHASE WITH A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND LIFT
SPREADING EASTWARD TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION BY LATE
SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH AXIS...WHILE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE FORMS IN THE VICINITY OF EASTERN PORTIONS OF TX AND WESTERN
LA BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE LEADING EDGE OF MOISTURE MAY REACH
FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWFA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE
GRADUALLY SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS TOWARD THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHES OUR FORECAST AREA.
FORECASTERS MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH LATEST GUIDANCE NOW SUPPORTING
LIKELY PROSPECTS OF RAIN ON SUNDAY AS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND LIFT
OVERSPREAD THE REGION. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE
COLD FRONT AND AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PROGRESSES EASTWARD. A
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST...IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER...CONTINUES
EARLY NEXT WEEK CONTINUES AS MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS DIFFER ON THE
NORTHWARD EXTENT OF NEXT ROUND OF MOISTURE SPREADING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF BY TUESDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE POSTED IN
THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY.

NEAR SEASONAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MODERATE TO
ABOVE NORMAL ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF FRONT. A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL DAILY
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. 10/21

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK. A TRANSITION TO LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY. LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF
A COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BUILD THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS. 07/MB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      38  63  42  69  46 /  00  00  00  00  20
PENSACOLA   41  61  44  68  49 /  00  00  00  00  20
DESTIN      43  59  46  64  50 /  00  00  00  00  20
EVERGREEN   34  62  36  70  44 /  00  00  00  00  20
WAYNESBORO  35  62  38  71  42 /  00  00  00  00  20
CAMDEN      31  60  35  70  42 /  00  00  00  00  20
CRESTVIEW   35  62  36  69  47 /  00  00  00  00  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$













000
FXUS64 KMOB 280424 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1020 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...CURRENT PACKAGE WITHIN TOLERANCES...WITH NO UPDATES
PLANNED ATTM.

/16

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF ISSUANCE...VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST.

/16

&&

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT]...HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION WILL ALLOW FOR THE WINDS TO QUICKLY DROP
OFF TONIGHT. CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS RELAXING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS
INTERIOR MS AND AL COUNTIES WITH UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S CLOSER TO THE
COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST ON WEDNESDAY AND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN TODAY WITH MID 60S ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MS AND LOW 60S FOR LOCATIONS FURTHER EAST. 07/MB

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PROGRESSES EAST ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH A SHORTWAVE MID LEVEL RIDGE MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHEAST. NO RAIN AS A DRY MID LEVEL WEST NORTHWEST FLOW LINGERS. AT
THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE AXIS MOVES EAST...BECOMING POSITIONED
FROM THE MID ATLANTIC AND INTO THE NORTHERN GULF AND BRINGS LIGHT
WINDS TO THE LOCAL AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAIN CHILLY...BUT VERY
CLOSE TO SEASONAL WITH NUMBERS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S INTERIOR TO
LOWER/MID 40S COAST. /10

.LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]...HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST
BREAKS DOWN ON THURSDAY WITH ALL OF THE GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKING PASSAGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST ON
THURSDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE POOLS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL ZONE AND WITH
FRONTAL ASCENT...A SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE IN THE
FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. DRIER AIR FILTERS SOUTHWARD ON FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. TEMPERATURES
TO WARM SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT
THURSDAY...WITH READINGS LOOKING TO RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S
ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA...POSSIBLY BREAKING INTO THE LOWER 70S FOR A
FEW AREAS. TEMPERATURES FALL BACK TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BY FRIDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AS A SERIES
OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS COME INTO
PHASE WITH A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND LIFT
SPREADING EASTWARD TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION BY LATE
SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH AXIS...WHILE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE FORMS IN THE VICINITY OF EASTERN PORTIONS OF TX AND WESTERN
LA BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE LEADING EDGE OF MOISTURE MAY REACH
FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWFA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE
GRADUALLY SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS TOWARD THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHES OUR FORECAST AREA.
FORECASTERS MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH LATEST GUIDANCE NOW SUPPORTING
LIKELY PROSPECTS OF RAIN ON SUNDAY AS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND LIFT
OVERSPREAD THE REGION. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE
COLD FRONT AND AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PROGRESSES EASTWARD. A
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST...IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER...CONTINUES
EARLY NEXT WEEK CONTINUES AS MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS DIFFER ON THE
NORTHWARD EXTENT OF NEXT ROUND OF MOISTURE SPREADING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF BY TUESDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE POSTED IN
THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY.

NEAR SEASONAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MODERATE TO
ABOVE NORMAL ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF FRONT. A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL DAILY
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. 10/21

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK. A TRANSITION TO LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY. LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF
A COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BUILD THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS. 07/MB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      38  63  42  69  46 /  00  00  00  00  20
PENSACOLA   41  61  44  68  49 /  00  00  00  00  20
DESTIN      43  59  46  64  50 /  00  00  00  00  20
EVERGREEN   34  62  36  70  44 /  00  00  00  00  20
WAYNESBORO  35  62  38  71  42 /  00  00  00  00  20
CAMDEN      31  60  35  70  42 /  00  00  00  00  20
CRESTVIEW   35  62  36  69  47 /  00  00  00  00  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$












000
FXUS64 KMOB 272322 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE TO AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
520 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF ISSUANCE...VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST.

/16

&&

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT]...HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION WILL ALLOW FOR THE WINDS TO QUICKLY DROP
OFF TONIGHT. CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS RELAXING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS
INTERIOR MS AND AL COUNTIES WITH UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S CLOSER TO THE
COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST ON WEDNESDAY AND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN TODAY WITH MID 60S ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MS AND LOW 60S FOR LOCATIONS FURTHER EAST. 07/MB

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PROGRESSES EAST ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH A SHORTWAVE MID LEVEL RIDGE MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHEAST. NO RAIN AS A DRY MID LEVEL WEST NORTHWEST FLOW LINGERS. AT
THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE AXIS MOVES EAST...BECOMING POSITIONED
FROM THE MID ATLANTIC AND INTO THE NORTHERN GULF AND BRINGS LIGHT
WINDS TO THE LOCAL AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAIN CHILLY...BUT VERY
CLOSE TO SEASONAL WITH NUMBERS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S INTERIOR TO
LOWER/MID 40S COAST. /10

.LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]...HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST
BREAKS DOWN ON THURSDAY WITH ALL OF THE GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKING PASSAGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST ON
THURSDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE POOLS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL ZONE AND WITH
FRONTAL ASCENT...A SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE IN THE
FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. DRIER AIR FILTERS SOUTHWARD ON FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. TEMPERATURES
TO WARM SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT
THURSDAY...WITH READINGS LOOKING TO RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S
ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA...POSSIBLY BREAKING INTO THE LOWER 70S FOR A
FEW AREAS. TEMPERATURES FALL BACK TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BY FRIDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AS A SERIES
OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS COME INTO
PHASE WITH A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND LIFT
SPREADING EASTWARD TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION BY LATE
SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH AXIS...WHILE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE FORMS IN THE VICINITY OF EASTERN PORTIONS OF TX AND WESTERN
LA BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE LEADING EDGE OF MOISTURE MAY REACH
FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWFA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE
GRADUALLY SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS TOWARD THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHES OUR FORECAST AREA.
FORECASTERS MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH LATEST GUIDANCE NOW SUPPORTING
LIKELY PROSPECTS OF RAIN ON SUNDAY AS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND LIFT
OVERSPREAD THE REGION. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE
COLD FRONT AND AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PROGRESSES EASTWARD. A
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST...IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER...CONTINUES
EARLY NEXT WEEK CONTINUES AS MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS DIFFER ON THE
NORTHWARD EXTENT OF NEXT ROUND OF MOISTURE SPREADING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF BY TUESDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE POSTED IN
THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY.

NEAR SEASONAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MODERATE TO
ABOVE NORMAL ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF FRONT. A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL DAILY
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. 10/21

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK. A TRANSITION TO LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY. LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF
A COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BUILD THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS. 07/MB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      38  63  42  69  46 /  00  00  00  00  20
PENSACOLA   41  61  44  68  49 /  00  00  00  00  20
DESTIN      43  59  46  64  50 /  00  00  00  00  20
EVERGREEN   34  62  36  70  44 /  00  00  00  00  20
WAYNESBORO  35  62  38  71  42 /  00  00  00  00  20
CAMDEN      31  60  35  70  42 /  00  00  00  00  20
CRESTVIEW   35  62  36  69  47 /  00  00  00  00  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KMOB 272322 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE TO AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
520 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF ISSUANCE...VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST.

/16

&&

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT]...HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION WILL ALLOW FOR THE WINDS TO QUICKLY DROP
OFF TONIGHT. CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS RELAXING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS
INTERIOR MS AND AL COUNTIES WITH UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S CLOSER TO THE
COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST ON WEDNESDAY AND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN TODAY WITH MID 60S ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MS AND LOW 60S FOR LOCATIONS FURTHER EAST. 07/MB

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PROGRESSES EAST ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH A SHORTWAVE MID LEVEL RIDGE MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHEAST. NO RAIN AS A DRY MID LEVEL WEST NORTHWEST FLOW LINGERS. AT
THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE AXIS MOVES EAST...BECOMING POSITIONED
FROM THE MID ATLANTIC AND INTO THE NORTHERN GULF AND BRINGS LIGHT
WINDS TO THE LOCAL AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAIN CHILLY...BUT VERY
CLOSE TO SEASONAL WITH NUMBERS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S INTERIOR TO
LOWER/MID 40S COAST. /10

.LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]...HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST
BREAKS DOWN ON THURSDAY WITH ALL OF THE GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKING PASSAGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST ON
THURSDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE POOLS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL ZONE AND WITH
FRONTAL ASCENT...A SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE IN THE
FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. DRIER AIR FILTERS SOUTHWARD ON FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. TEMPERATURES
TO WARM SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT
THURSDAY...WITH READINGS LOOKING TO RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S
ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA...POSSIBLY BREAKING INTO THE LOWER 70S FOR A
FEW AREAS. TEMPERATURES FALL BACK TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BY FRIDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AS A SERIES
OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS COME INTO
PHASE WITH A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND LIFT
SPREADING EASTWARD TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION BY LATE
SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH AXIS...WHILE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE FORMS IN THE VICINITY OF EASTERN PORTIONS OF TX AND WESTERN
LA BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE LEADING EDGE OF MOISTURE MAY REACH
FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWFA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE
GRADUALLY SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS TOWARD THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHES OUR FORECAST AREA.
FORECASTERS MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH LATEST GUIDANCE NOW SUPPORTING
LIKELY PROSPECTS OF RAIN ON SUNDAY AS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND LIFT
OVERSPREAD THE REGION. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE
COLD FRONT AND AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PROGRESSES EASTWARD. A
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST...IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER...CONTINUES
EARLY NEXT WEEK CONTINUES AS MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS DIFFER ON THE
NORTHWARD EXTENT OF NEXT ROUND OF MOISTURE SPREADING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF BY TUESDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE POSTED IN
THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY.

NEAR SEASONAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MODERATE TO
ABOVE NORMAL ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF FRONT. A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL DAILY
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. 10/21

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK. A TRANSITION TO LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY. LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF
A COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BUILD THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS. 07/MB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      38  63  42  69  46 /  00  00  00  00  20
PENSACOLA   41  61  44  68  49 /  00  00  00  00  20
DESTIN      43  59  46  64  50 /  00  00  00  00  20
EVERGREEN   34  62  36  70  44 /  00  00  00  00  20
WAYNESBORO  35  62  38  71  42 /  00  00  00  00  20
CAMDEN      31  60  35  70  42 /  00  00  00  00  20
CRESTVIEW   35  62  36  69  47 /  00  00  00  00  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMOB 272153
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
353 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT]...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO THE REGION WILL ALLOW FOR THE WINDS TO QUICKLY DROP OFF
TONIGHT. CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS RELAXING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS
INTERIOR MS AND AL COUNTIES WITH UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S CLOSER TO THE
COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST ON WEDNESDAY AND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN TODAY WITH MID 60S ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MS AND LOW 60S FOR LOCATIONS FURTHER EAST. 07/MB

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PROGRESSES EAST ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH A SHORTWAVE MID LEVEL RIDGE MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHEAST. NO RAIN AS A DRY MID LEVEL WEST NORTHWEST FLOW LINGERS. AT
THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE AXIS MOVES EAST...BECOMING POSITIONED
FROM THE MID ATLANTIC AND INTO THE NORTHERN GULF AND BRINGS LIGHT
WINDS TO THE LOCAL AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAIN CHILLY...BUT VERY
CLOSE TO SEASONAL WITH NUMBERS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S INTERIOR TO
LOWER/MID 40S COAST. /10

.LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]...HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST
BREAKS DOWN ON THURSDAY WITH ALL OF THE GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKING PASSAGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST ON
THURSDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE POOLS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL ZONE AND WITH
FRONTAL ASCENT...A SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE IN THE
FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. DRIER AIR FILTERS SOUTHWARD ON FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. TEMPERATURES
TO WARM SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT
THURSDAY...WITH READINGS LOOKING TO RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S
ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA...POSSIBLY BREAKING INTO THE LOWER 70S FOR A
FEW AREAS. TEMPERATURES FALL BACK TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BY FRIDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AS A SERIES
OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS COME INTO
PHASE WITH A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND LIFT
SPREADING EASTWARD TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION BY LATE
SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH AXIS...WHILE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE FORMS IN THE VICINITY OF EASTERN PORTIONS OF TX AND WESTERN LA
BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE LEADING EDGE OF MOISTURE MAY REACH FAR
WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWFA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE
GRADUALLY SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS TOWARD THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHES OUR FORECAST AREA.
FORECASTERS MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH LATEST GUIDANCE NOW SUPPORTING
LIKELY PROSPECTS OF RAIN ON SUNDAY AS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND LIFT
OVERSPREAD THE REGION. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE
COLD FRONT AND AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PROGRESSES EASTWARD. A
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST...IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER...CONTINUES
EARLY NEXT WEEK CONTINUES AS MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS DIFFER ON THE
NORTHWARD EXTENT OF NEXT ROUND OF MOISTURE SPREADING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF BY TUESDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE POSTED IN
THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY.

NEAR SEASONAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MODERATE TO
ABOVE NORMAL ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF FRONT. A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL DAILY
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. 10/21

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF ISSUANCE...
VFR CIGS AND VISIBILITY EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS. WINDS WILL
QUICKLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. LIGHT WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. 07/MB

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK. A TRANSITION TO LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY. LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF
A COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BUILD THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY
FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS. 07/MB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      38  63  42  69  46 /  00  00  00  00  20
PENSACOLA   41  61  44  68  49 /  00  00  00  00  20
DESTIN      43  59  46  64  50 /  00  00  00  00  20
EVERGREEN   34  62  36  70  44 /  00  00  00  00  20
WAYNESBORO  35  62  38  71  42 /  00  00  00  00  20
CAMDEN      31  60  35  70  42 /  00  00  00  00  20
CRESTVIEW   35  62  36  69  47 /  00  00  00  00  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMOB 271656
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1056 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...BUMPED UP HIGHS A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA AS TEMPERATURES
ARE ALREADY IN THE UPPER 50S ACROSS COASTAL COUNTIES. REST OF FORECAST
LOOKS ON TRACK THIS MORNING. 07/MB

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF ISSUANCE...
VFR CIGS AND VSBY EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHWEST
WINDS UP TO 12 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND
WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. LIGHT WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. 07/MB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 436 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015/

SHORT TERM [TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT]...SFC RIDGE WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD FROM THE WEST AND NORTH THROUGH TONIGHT AS DEEP TROF
CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD ALONG WITH A DEEP
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD
TO A RATHER PLEASANT DAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH WARMER DAYTIME TEMPS ALONG
WITH LESS WIND. FOR TONIGHT SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH MORE COLD
TEMPS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY WED MORNING. HIGHS TODAY CLIMB TO THE MID
60S FOR MOST AREAS. TONIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
30S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE MID TO UPPER 30S CLOSER TO THE
COAST. 32/EE

A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN WEDNESDAY...WHILE RIDGING ALOFT DEVELOPS
FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A DRY
DEEP LAYER AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
REGION WEDNESDAY...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES GENERALLY AVERAGING
BETWEEN 0.4-0.5 INCHES ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. SUNNY SKIES WILL
GENERALLY PREVAIL ACROSS OUR REGION WITH PERHAPS A FEW THIN HIGH
CLOUDS PASSING OVERHEAD. A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD AND WILL EXTEND ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD AND INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
OUR FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS...BUT AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR
NORMAL FOR LATE JANUARY. WE EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS. DRY NORTHWEST TO ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT WILL PREVAIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A MODEST INCREASE IN HIGH
LEVEL CLOUD COVER. LOW TEMPERATURES WERE TRENDED A LITTLE COOLER
GIVEN RECENT TRENDS...WITH READINGS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID
TO UPPER 30S OVER THE INTERIOR TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S NEAR THE
COAST. /21

LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL CLIP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY
REGION THURSDAY THEN EASTWARD TOWARD THE EAST COAST BY THURSDAY
NIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION THURSDAY EVENING...AND INTO THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. WEAK LIFT AND A MODEST AMOUNT
OF MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT...BUT
ANY ASSOCIATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT. TEMPERATURES
ACTUALLY LOOK TO WARM SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT THURSDAY...WITH READINGS LOOKING TO RISE INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA. TEMPERATURES FALL BACK TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BY FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD
INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AS A SERIES
OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS COME INTO
PHASE WITH A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND LIFT
SPREADING EASTWARD TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION BY LATE
SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH AXIS...WHILE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS IN THE VICINITY OF EASTERN PORTIONS OF TX AND
WESTERN LA BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE LEADING EDGE OF MOISTURE MAY
REACH FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWFA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...
BEFORE GRADUALLY SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT
AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS TOWARD THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHES OUR FORECAST AREA.
WE HAVE KEPT A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH RAIN CHANCES
INCREASING TO 50-60 PERCENT BY SUNDAY AS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND LIFT
OVERSPREAD THE REGION. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF
THE NEXT COLD FRONT AND AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PROGRESSES
EASTWARD. RELATIVELY MILD TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND
FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. A LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER CONTINUES EARLY NEXT WEEK
CONTINUES AS MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS DIFFER ON THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF
MOISTURE SPREADING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. WE WILL KEEP AT LEAST A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST NEAR THE COAST MONDAY...BUT
RAIN CHANCES COULD INCREASE JUST BEYOND THIS EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD. /21

MARINE...NORTHERLY WINDS AD SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TODAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST AND NORTH. FOR LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY WED NORTHERLY WINDS WILL REBUILD SLIGHTLY AS THE SFC RIDGE
STRENGTHENS TO THE WEST AND NORTH. AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST BY MIDWEEK THIS SFC RIDGE WILL SHIFT
EAST TO NEAR EASTERN SEABOARD BY EARLY THU LEADING TO A WEAK
SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA THU AND THU EVENING. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL THEN MOVE SOUTH OVER THE MARINE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
LEADING TO A LIGHT TO MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW ON FRIDAY. EASTERLY
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BUILD OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG WITH A STRONGER COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM
THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      66  37  61  41  68 /  00  00  00  00  05
PENSACOLA   65  40  59  43  67 /  00  00  00  00  05
DESTIN      63  43  57  45  64 /  00  00  00  00  00
EVERGREEN   66  34  59  36  67 /  00  00  00  00  05
WAYNESBORO  67  34  60  37  68 /  00  00  00  00  05
CAMDEN      65  32  59  36  67 /  00  00  00  00  05
CRESTVIEW   66  35  60  35  68 /  00  00  00  00  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KMOB 271656
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1056 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...BUMPED UP HIGHS A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA AS TEMPERATURES
ARE ALREADY IN THE UPPER 50S ACROSS COASTAL COUNTIES. REST OF FORECAST
LOOKS ON TRACK THIS MORNING. 07/MB

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF ISSUANCE...
VFR CIGS AND VSBY EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHWEST
WINDS UP TO 12 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND
WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. LIGHT WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. 07/MB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 436 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015/

SHORT TERM [TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT]...SFC RIDGE WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD FROM THE WEST AND NORTH THROUGH TONIGHT AS DEEP TROF
CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD ALONG WITH A DEEP
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD
TO A RATHER PLEASANT DAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH WARMER DAYTIME TEMPS ALONG
WITH LESS WIND. FOR TONIGHT SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH MORE COLD
TEMPS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY WED MORNING. HIGHS TODAY CLIMB TO THE MID
60S FOR MOST AREAS. TONIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
30S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE MID TO UPPER 30S CLOSER TO THE
COAST. 32/EE

A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN WEDNESDAY...WHILE RIDGING ALOFT DEVELOPS
FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A DRY
DEEP LAYER AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
REGION WEDNESDAY...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES GENERALLY AVERAGING
BETWEEN 0.4-0.5 INCHES ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. SUNNY SKIES WILL
GENERALLY PREVAIL ACROSS OUR REGION WITH PERHAPS A FEW THIN HIGH
CLOUDS PASSING OVERHEAD. A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD AND WILL EXTEND ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD AND INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
OUR FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS...BUT AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR
NORMAL FOR LATE JANUARY. WE EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS. DRY NORTHWEST TO ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT WILL PREVAIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A MODEST INCREASE IN HIGH
LEVEL CLOUD COVER. LOW TEMPERATURES WERE TRENDED A LITTLE COOLER
GIVEN RECENT TRENDS...WITH READINGS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID
TO UPPER 30S OVER THE INTERIOR TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S NEAR THE
COAST. /21

LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL CLIP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY
REGION THURSDAY THEN EASTWARD TOWARD THE EAST COAST BY THURSDAY
NIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION THURSDAY EVENING...AND INTO THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. WEAK LIFT AND A MODEST AMOUNT
OF MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT...BUT
ANY ASSOCIATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT. TEMPERATURES
ACTUALLY LOOK TO WARM SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT THURSDAY...WITH READINGS LOOKING TO RISE INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA. TEMPERATURES FALL BACK TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BY FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD
INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AS A SERIES
OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS COME INTO
PHASE WITH A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND LIFT
SPREADING EASTWARD TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION BY LATE
SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH AXIS...WHILE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS IN THE VICINITY OF EASTERN PORTIONS OF TX AND
WESTERN LA BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE LEADING EDGE OF MOISTURE MAY
REACH FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWFA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...
BEFORE GRADUALLY SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT
AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS TOWARD THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHES OUR FORECAST AREA.
WE HAVE KEPT A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH RAIN CHANCES
INCREASING TO 50-60 PERCENT BY SUNDAY AS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND LIFT
OVERSPREAD THE REGION. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF
THE NEXT COLD FRONT AND AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PROGRESSES
EASTWARD. RELATIVELY MILD TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND
FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. A LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER CONTINUES EARLY NEXT WEEK
CONTINUES AS MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS DIFFER ON THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF
MOISTURE SPREADING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. WE WILL KEEP AT LEAST A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST NEAR THE COAST MONDAY...BUT
RAIN CHANCES COULD INCREASE JUST BEYOND THIS EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD. /21

MARINE...NORTHERLY WINDS AD SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TODAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST AND NORTH. FOR LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY WED NORTHERLY WINDS WILL REBUILD SLIGHTLY AS THE SFC RIDGE
STRENGTHENS TO THE WEST AND NORTH. AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST BY MIDWEEK THIS SFC RIDGE WILL SHIFT
EAST TO NEAR EASTERN SEABOARD BY EARLY THU LEADING TO A WEAK
SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA THU AND THU EVENING. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL THEN MOVE SOUTH OVER THE MARINE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
LEADING TO A LIGHT TO MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW ON FRIDAY. EASTERLY
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BUILD OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG WITH A STRONGER COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM
THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      66  37  61  41  68 /  00  00  00  00  05
PENSACOLA   65  40  59  43  67 /  00  00  00  00  05
DESTIN      63  43  57  45  64 /  00  00  00  00  00
EVERGREEN   66  34  59  36  67 /  00  00  00  00  05
WAYNESBORO  67  34  60  37  68 /  00  00  00  00  05
CAMDEN      65  32  59  36  67 /  00  00  00  00  05
CRESTVIEW   66  35  60  35  68 /  00  00  00  00  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMOB 271036
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
436 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SHORT TERM [TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT]...SFC RIDGE WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD FROM THE WEST AND NORTH THROUGH TONIGHT AS DEEP TROF
CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD ALONG WITH A DEEP
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD
TO A RATHER PLEASANT DAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH WARMER DAYTIME TEMPS ALONG
WITH LESS WIND. FOR TONIGHT SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH MORE COLD
TEMPS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY WED MORNING. HIGHS TODAY CLIMB TO THE MID
60S FOR MOST AREAS. TONIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
30S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE MID TO UPPER 30S CLOSER TO THE
COAST. 32/EE

A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN WEDNESDAY...WHILE RIDGING ALOFT DEVELOPS
FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A DRY
DEEP LAYER AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
REGION WEDNESDAY...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES GENERALLY AVERAGING
BETWEEN 0.4-0.5 INCHES ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. SUNNY SKIES WILL
GENERALLY PREVAIL ACROSS OUR REGION WITH PERHAPS A FEW THIN HIGH
CLOUDS PASSING OVERHEAD. A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD AND WILL EXTEND ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD AND INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
OUR FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS...BUT AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR
NORMAL FOR LATE JANUARY. WE EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS. DRY NORTHWEST TO ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT WILL PREVAIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A MODEST INCREASE IN HIGH
LEVEL CLOUD COVER. LOW TEMPERATURES WERE TRENDED A LITTLE COOLER
GIVEN RECENT TRENDS...WITH READINGS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID
TO UPPER 30S OVER THE INTERIOR TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S NEAR THE
COAST. /21

.LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL CLIP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY
REGION THURSDAY THEN EASTWARD TOWARD THE EAST COAST BY THURSDAY
NIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION THURSDAY EVENING...AND INTO THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. WEAK LIFT AND A MODEST AMOUNT
OF MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT...BUT
ANY ASSOCIATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT. TEMPERATURES
ACTUALLY LOOK TO WARM SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT THURSDAY...WITH READINGS LOOKING TO RISE INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA. TEMPERATURES FALL BACK TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BY FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD
INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AS A SERIES
OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS COME INTO
PHASE WITH A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND LIFT
SPREADING EASTWARD TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION BY LATE
SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH AXIS...WHILE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS IN THE VICINITY OF EASTERN PORTIONS OF TX AND
WESTERN LA BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE LEADING EDGE OF MOISTURE MAY
REACH FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWFA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...
BEFORE GRADUALLY SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT
AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS TOWARD THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHES OUR FORECAST AREA.
WE HAVE KEPT A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH RAIN CHANCES
INCREASING TO 50-60 PERCENT BY SUNDAY AS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND LIFT
OVERSPREAD THE REGION. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF
THE NEXT COLD FRONT AND AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PROGRESSES
EASTWARD. RELATIVELY MILD TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND
FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. A LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER CONTINUES EARLY NEXT WEEK
CONTINUES AS MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS DIFFER ON THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF
MOISTURE SPREADING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. WE WILL KEEP AT LEAST A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST NEAR THE COAST MONDAY...BUT
RAIN CHANCES COULD INCREASE JUST BEYOND THIS EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD. /21

&&

.AVIATION...
27.12Z TAF ISSUANCE...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 28.12Z. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST AT 8 TO 12 KNOTS THROUGH
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHIFTING NORTHEAST DIMINISHING TO 4 TO 7 KNOTS
THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY WED MORNING. 32/EE

&&

.MARINE...NORTHERLY WINDS AD SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TODAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST AND NORTH. FOR LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY WED NORTHERLY WINDS WILL REBUILD SLIGHTLY AS THE SFC RIDGE
STRENGTHENS TO THE WEST AND NORTH. AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST BY MIDWEEK THIS SFC RIDGE WILL SHIFT
EAST TO NEAR EASTERN SEABOARD BY EARLY THU LEADING TO A WEAK
SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA THU AND THU EVENING. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL THEN MOVE SOUTH OVER THE MARINE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
LEADING TO A LIGHT TO MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW ON FRIDAY. EASTERLY
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BUILD OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG WITH A STRONGER COLD FRONT APPROACH
FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      64  37  61  41  68 /  00  00  00  00  05
PENSACOLA   65  40  59  43  67 /  00  00  00  00  05
DESTIN      64  43  57  45  64 /  00  00  00  00  00
EVERGREEN   65  34  59  36  67 /  00  00  00  00  05
WAYNESBORO  64  34  60  37  68 /  00  00  00  00  05
CAMDEN      64  32  59  36  67 /  00  00  00  00  05
CRESTVIEW   65  35  60  35  68 /  00  00  00  00  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

32/21






000
FXUS64 KMOB 271036
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
436 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SHORT TERM [TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT]...SFC RIDGE WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD FROM THE WEST AND NORTH THROUGH TONIGHT AS DEEP TROF
CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD ALONG WITH A DEEP
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD
TO A RATHER PLEASANT DAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH WARMER DAYTIME TEMPS ALONG
WITH LESS WIND. FOR TONIGHT SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH MORE COLD
TEMPS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY WED MORNING. HIGHS TODAY CLIMB TO THE MID
60S FOR MOST AREAS. TONIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
30S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE MID TO UPPER 30S CLOSER TO THE
COAST. 32/EE

A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN WEDNESDAY...WHILE RIDGING ALOFT DEVELOPS
FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A DRY
DEEP LAYER AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
REGION WEDNESDAY...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES GENERALLY AVERAGING
BETWEEN 0.4-0.5 INCHES ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. SUNNY SKIES WILL
GENERALLY PREVAIL ACROSS OUR REGION WITH PERHAPS A FEW THIN HIGH
CLOUDS PASSING OVERHEAD. A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD AND WILL EXTEND ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD AND INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
OUR FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS...BUT AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR
NORMAL FOR LATE JANUARY. WE EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS. DRY NORTHWEST TO ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT WILL PREVAIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A MODEST INCREASE IN HIGH
LEVEL CLOUD COVER. LOW TEMPERATURES WERE TRENDED A LITTLE COOLER
GIVEN RECENT TRENDS...WITH READINGS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID
TO UPPER 30S OVER THE INTERIOR TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S NEAR THE
COAST. /21

.LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL CLIP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY
REGION THURSDAY THEN EASTWARD TOWARD THE EAST COAST BY THURSDAY
NIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION THURSDAY EVENING...AND INTO THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. WEAK LIFT AND A MODEST AMOUNT
OF MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT...BUT
ANY ASSOCIATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT. TEMPERATURES
ACTUALLY LOOK TO WARM SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT THURSDAY...WITH READINGS LOOKING TO RISE INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA. TEMPERATURES FALL BACK TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BY FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD
INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AS A SERIES
OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS COME INTO
PHASE WITH A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND LIFT
SPREADING EASTWARD TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION BY LATE
SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH AXIS...WHILE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS IN THE VICINITY OF EASTERN PORTIONS OF TX AND
WESTERN LA BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE LEADING EDGE OF MOISTURE MAY
REACH FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWFA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...
BEFORE GRADUALLY SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT
AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS TOWARD THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHES OUR FORECAST AREA.
WE HAVE KEPT A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH RAIN CHANCES
INCREASING TO 50-60 PERCENT BY SUNDAY AS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND LIFT
OVERSPREAD THE REGION. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF
THE NEXT COLD FRONT AND AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PROGRESSES
EASTWARD. RELATIVELY MILD TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND
FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. A LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER CONTINUES EARLY NEXT WEEK
CONTINUES AS MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS DIFFER ON THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF
MOISTURE SPREADING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. WE WILL KEEP AT LEAST A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST NEAR THE COAST MONDAY...BUT
RAIN CHANCES COULD INCREASE JUST BEYOND THIS EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD. /21

&&

.AVIATION...
27.12Z TAF ISSUANCE...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 28.12Z. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST AT 8 TO 12 KNOTS THROUGH
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHIFTING NORTHEAST DIMINISHING TO 4 TO 7 KNOTS
THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY WED MORNING. 32/EE

&&

.MARINE...NORTHERLY WINDS AD SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TODAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST AND NORTH. FOR LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY WED NORTHERLY WINDS WILL REBUILD SLIGHTLY AS THE SFC RIDGE
STRENGTHENS TO THE WEST AND NORTH. AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST BY MIDWEEK THIS SFC RIDGE WILL SHIFT
EAST TO NEAR EASTERN SEABOARD BY EARLY THU LEADING TO A WEAK
SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA THU AND THU EVENING. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL THEN MOVE SOUTH OVER THE MARINE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
LEADING TO A LIGHT TO MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW ON FRIDAY. EASTERLY
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BUILD OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG WITH A STRONGER COLD FRONT APPROACH
FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      64  37  61  41  68 /  00  00  00  00  05
PENSACOLA   65  40  59  43  67 /  00  00  00  00  05
DESTIN      64  43  57  45  64 /  00  00  00  00  00
EVERGREEN   65  34  59  36  67 /  00  00  00  00  05
WAYNESBORO  64  34  60  37  68 /  00  00  00  00  05
CAMDEN      64  32  59  36  67 /  00  00  00  00  05
CRESTVIEW   65  35  60  35  68 /  00  00  00  00  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

32/21





000
FXUS64 KMOB 270350
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
950 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.UPDATE...WILL ADJUST MIN TEMPS DOWNWARD A COUPLE OF DEGREES ACROSS
ALL OF THE INTERIOR FCST ZONES AS CURRENT TEMPS ARE ALREADY AT OR
JUST BELOW PREVIOUS FCST OVERNIGHT LOWS. ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL
AREAS...FCST LOW TEMPS FOR TONIGHT APPEAR TO BE ON TRACK AND WILL NOT
MAKE ANY ADJUSTMENTS THERE. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES. UPDATES OUT
SHORTLY. 12/DS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 841 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015/

UPDATE...UPDATED CWF AND ZFP FORECASTS TO REMOVE HEADLINES (FOR
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK). OTHERWISE NO CHANES
OR ADJUSTMENT NEEDED...EXCEPT FOR DECREASING WINDS IN GRIDED DATA EVER
SO SLIGHTLY OVER THE MARINE AREA FOR THIS EVENING. WILL HEADLINE CWF
WITH SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. 12/DS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015/

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT]...THE CLOUD DECK SITUATED
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF OUR CWA HAS FINALLY SCATTERED OUT
THIS AFTERNOON. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO QUICKLY SHIFT
EAST OF THE REGION WITH A RIDGE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT. ALL OF THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR THE CURRENT GUSTY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA TO DROP
OFF OVERNIGHT. CLEARING SKIES AND RELAXING WINDS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH LOW 40S CLOSER TO THE COAST.
HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S ACROSS SOUTHEAST MS AND
NORTHWEST FL PANHANDLE TO LOW 60S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AL. 07/MB

WELL DEFINED HIGH LEVEL TROUGH AXIS HUGS THE EASTERN SEABOARD...
WHILE AN AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NOSES NORTHWARD FROM
MEXICO...UP ACROSS THE PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT. A DEEP LAYER...DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE. AXIS OF SURFACE HIGH MOVES
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...RESULTING IN A
LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND PATTERN. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE
IN THE MID 30S OVER THE INTERIOR TO THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S CLOSE TO
THE COAST. /10

LONG TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS MORE TO
THE EAST OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...RESULTING IN A LIGHT RETURN
FLOW.  DEEP LAYER MOISTURE THOUGH REMAINS LIMITED AND A RAINFREE
FORECAST CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS NEAR 60 ON
WEDNESDAY WILL BE NEAR SEASONABLE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
RANGE FROM 37 TO 42 INTERIOR TO MID/UPPER 40S AT THE COAST.

A SERIES OF WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVES ADVANCE ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
PHASE INTO AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES THURSDAY NIGHT.
AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PASSES WELL NORTH OF THE REGION AND BRINGS
A TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE TO SUPPORT SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. A SURFACE HIGH
BUILDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES
OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH ADVANCES
EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS SATURDAY AND INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY LATE SUNDAY.

RAINFREE CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN WILL
HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE LOCAL AREA SATURDAY. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE A BIT WHILE
SPREADING EAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS A SERIES OF MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AND INTERACTS WITH BETTER MOISTURE
PROFILES. A COLD FRONT IS ALSO PROGGED TO BE MAKING PASSAGE LATE
SUNDAY.

HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 60S...RANGING FROM THE MID 50S
TO NEAR 60 FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.  LOWS WILL MOSTLY
BE IN THE 40S. 10/29

AVIATION...
26.18Z TAF ISSUANCE...
VFR CIGS AND VSBY EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHWEST
WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS. WINDS WILL RELAX OVERNIGHT AND PICK BACK UP IN
THE MID MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY. 07/MB

MARINE...STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO RELAX THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS TONIGHT. LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MIDWEEK BECOMING SOUTH LATE IN THE WEEK AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD
FRONT. BEYOND TONIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. 07/MB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      39  65  38  60  43 /  00  00  00  00  00
PENSACOLA   42  64  39  58  45 /  00  00  00  00  00
DESTIN      44  63  42  57  48 /  00  00  00  00  00
EVERGREEN   36  62  34  60  37 /  00  00  00  00  00
WAYNESBORO  34  64  35  60  40 /  00  00  00  00  00
CAMDEN      36  61  34  59  37 /  00  00  00  00  00
CRESTVIEW   39  63  34  60  37 /  00  00  00  00  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KMOB 270350
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
950 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.UPDATE...WILL ADJUST MIN TEMPS DOWNWARD A COUPLE OF DEGREES ACROSS
ALL OF THE INTERIOR FCST ZONES AS CURRENT TEMPS ARE ALREADY AT OR
JUST BELOW PREVIOUS FCST OVERNIGHT LOWS. ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL
AREAS...FCST LOW TEMPS FOR TONIGHT APPEAR TO BE ON TRACK AND WILL NOT
MAKE ANY ADJUSTMENTS THERE. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES. UPDATES OUT
SHORTLY. 12/DS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 841 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015/

UPDATE...UPDATED CWF AND ZFP FORECASTS TO REMOVE HEADLINES (FOR
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK). OTHERWISE NO CHANES
OR ADJUSTMENT NEEDED...EXCEPT FOR DECREASING WINDS IN GRIDED DATA EVER
SO SLIGHTLY OVER THE MARINE AREA FOR THIS EVENING. WILL HEADLINE CWF
WITH SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. 12/DS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015/

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT]...THE CLOUD DECK SITUATED
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF OUR CWA HAS FINALLY SCATTERED OUT
THIS AFTERNOON. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO QUICKLY SHIFT
EAST OF THE REGION WITH A RIDGE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT. ALL OF THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR THE CURRENT GUSTY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA TO DROP
OFF OVERNIGHT. CLEARING SKIES AND RELAXING WINDS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH LOW 40S CLOSER TO THE COAST.
HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S ACROSS SOUTHEAST MS AND
NORTHWEST FL PANHANDLE TO LOW 60S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AL. 07/MB

WELL DEFINED HIGH LEVEL TROUGH AXIS HUGS THE EASTERN SEABOARD...
WHILE AN AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NOSES NORTHWARD FROM
MEXICO...UP ACROSS THE PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT. A DEEP LAYER...DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE. AXIS OF SURFACE HIGH MOVES
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...RESULTING IN A
LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND PATTERN. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE
IN THE MID 30S OVER THE INTERIOR TO THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S CLOSE TO
THE COAST. /10

LONG TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS MORE TO
THE EAST OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...RESULTING IN A LIGHT RETURN
FLOW.  DEEP LAYER MOISTURE THOUGH REMAINS LIMITED AND A RAINFREE
FORECAST CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS NEAR 60 ON
WEDNESDAY WILL BE NEAR SEASONABLE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
RANGE FROM 37 TO 42 INTERIOR TO MID/UPPER 40S AT THE COAST.

A SERIES OF WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVES ADVANCE ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
PHASE INTO AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES THURSDAY NIGHT.
AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PASSES WELL NORTH OF THE REGION AND BRINGS
A TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE TO SUPPORT SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. A SURFACE HIGH
BUILDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES
OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH ADVANCES
EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS SATURDAY AND INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY LATE SUNDAY.

RAINFREE CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN WILL
HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE LOCAL AREA SATURDAY. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE A BIT WHILE
SPREADING EAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS A SERIES OF MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AND INTERACTS WITH BETTER MOISTURE
PROFILES. A COLD FRONT IS ALSO PROGGED TO BE MAKING PASSAGE LATE
SUNDAY.

HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 60S...RANGING FROM THE MID 50S
TO NEAR 60 FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.  LOWS WILL MOSTLY
BE IN THE 40S. 10/29

AVIATION...
26.18Z TAF ISSUANCE...
VFR CIGS AND VSBY EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHWEST
WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS. WINDS WILL RELAX OVERNIGHT AND PICK BACK UP IN
THE MID MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY. 07/MB

MARINE...STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO RELAX THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS TONIGHT. LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MIDWEEK BECOMING SOUTH LATE IN THE WEEK AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD
FRONT. BEYOND TONIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. 07/MB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      39  65  38  60  43 /  00  00  00  00  00
PENSACOLA   42  64  39  58  45 /  00  00  00  00  00
DESTIN      44  63  42  57  48 /  00  00  00  00  00
EVERGREEN   36  62  34  60  37 /  00  00  00  00  00
WAYNESBORO  34  64  35  60  40 /  00  00  00  00  00
CAMDEN      36  61  34  59  37 /  00  00  00  00  00
CRESTVIEW   39  63  34  60  37 /  00  00  00  00  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMOB 270350
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
950 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.UPDATE...WILL ADJUST MIN TEMPS DOWNWARD A COUPLE OF DEGREES ACROSS
ALL OF THE INTERIOR FCST ZONES AS CURRENT TEMPS ARE ALREADY AT OR
JUST BELOW PREVIOUS FCST OVERNIGHT LOWS. ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL
AREAS...FCST LOW TEMPS FOR TONIGHT APPEAR TO BE ON TRACK AND WILL NOT
MAKE ANY ADJUSTMENTS THERE. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES. UPDATES OUT
SHORTLY. 12/DS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 841 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015/

UPDATE...UPDATED CWF AND ZFP FORECASTS TO REMOVE HEADLINES (FOR
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK). OTHERWISE NO CHANES
OR ADJUSTMENT NEEDED...EXCEPT FOR DECREASING WINDS IN GRIDED DATA EVER
SO SLIGHTLY OVER THE MARINE AREA FOR THIS EVENING. WILL HEADLINE CWF
WITH SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. 12/DS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015/

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT]...THE CLOUD DECK SITUATED
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF OUR CWA HAS FINALLY SCATTERED OUT
THIS AFTERNOON. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO QUICKLY SHIFT
EAST OF THE REGION WITH A RIDGE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT. ALL OF THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR THE CURRENT GUSTY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA TO DROP
OFF OVERNIGHT. CLEARING SKIES AND RELAXING WINDS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH LOW 40S CLOSER TO THE COAST.
HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S ACROSS SOUTHEAST MS AND
NORTHWEST FL PANHANDLE TO LOW 60S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AL. 07/MB

WELL DEFINED HIGH LEVEL TROUGH AXIS HUGS THE EASTERN SEABOARD...
WHILE AN AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NOSES NORTHWARD FROM
MEXICO...UP ACROSS THE PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT. A DEEP LAYER...DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE. AXIS OF SURFACE HIGH MOVES
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...RESULTING IN A
LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND PATTERN. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE
IN THE MID 30S OVER THE INTERIOR TO THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S CLOSE TO
THE COAST. /10

LONG TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS MORE TO
THE EAST OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...RESULTING IN A LIGHT RETURN
FLOW.  DEEP LAYER MOISTURE THOUGH REMAINS LIMITED AND A RAINFREE
FORECAST CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS NEAR 60 ON
WEDNESDAY WILL BE NEAR SEASONABLE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
RANGE FROM 37 TO 42 INTERIOR TO MID/UPPER 40S AT THE COAST.

A SERIES OF WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVES ADVANCE ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
PHASE INTO AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES THURSDAY NIGHT.
AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PASSES WELL NORTH OF THE REGION AND BRINGS
A TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE TO SUPPORT SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. A SURFACE HIGH
BUILDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES
OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH ADVANCES
EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS SATURDAY AND INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY LATE SUNDAY.

RAINFREE CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN WILL
HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE LOCAL AREA SATURDAY. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE A BIT WHILE
SPREADING EAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS A SERIES OF MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AND INTERACTS WITH BETTER MOISTURE
PROFILES. A COLD FRONT IS ALSO PROGGED TO BE MAKING PASSAGE LATE
SUNDAY.

HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 60S...RANGING FROM THE MID 50S
TO NEAR 60 FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.  LOWS WILL MOSTLY
BE IN THE 40S. 10/29

AVIATION...
26.18Z TAF ISSUANCE...
VFR CIGS AND VSBY EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHWEST
WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS. WINDS WILL RELAX OVERNIGHT AND PICK BACK UP IN
THE MID MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY. 07/MB

MARINE...STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO RELAX THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS TONIGHT. LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MIDWEEK BECOMING SOUTH LATE IN THE WEEK AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD
FRONT. BEYOND TONIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. 07/MB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      39  65  38  60  43 /  00  00  00  00  00
PENSACOLA   42  64  39  58  45 /  00  00  00  00  00
DESTIN      44  63  42  57  48 /  00  00  00  00  00
EVERGREEN   36  62  34  60  37 /  00  00  00  00  00
WAYNESBORO  34  64  35  60  40 /  00  00  00  00  00
CAMDEN      36  61  34  59  37 /  00  00  00  00  00
CRESTVIEW   39  63  34  60  37 /  00  00  00  00  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KMOB 270241 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
841 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.UPDATE...UPDATED CWF AND ZFP FORECASTS TO REMOVE HEADLINES (FOR
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK). OTHERWISE NO CHANES
OR ADJUSTMENT NEEDED...EXCEPT FOR DECREASING WINDS IN GRIDED DATA EVER
SO SLIGHTLY OVER THE MARINE AREA FOR THIS EVENING. WILL HEADLINE CWF
WITH SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. 12/DS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015/

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT]...THE CLOUD DECK SITUATED
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF OUR CWA HAS FINALLY SCATTERED OUT
THIS AFTERNOON. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO QUICKLY SHIFT
EAST OF THE REGION WITH A RIDGE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT. ALL OF THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR THE CURRENT GUSTY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA TO DROP
OFF OVERNIGHT. CLEARING SKIES AND RELAXING WINDS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH LOW 40S CLOSER TO THE COAST.
HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S ACROSS SOUTHEAST MS AND
NORTHWEST FL PANHANDLE TO LOW 60S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AL. 07/MB

WELL DEFINED HIGH LEVEL TROUGH AXIS HUGS THE EASTERN SEABOARD...
WHILE AN AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NOSES NORTHWARD FROM
MEXICO...UP ACROSS THE PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT. A DEEP LAYER...DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE. AXIS OF SURFACE HIGH MOVES
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...RESULTING IN A
LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND PATTERN. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE
IN THE MID 30S OVER THE INTERIOR TO THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S CLOSE TO
THE COAST. /10

LONG TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS MORE TO
THE EAST OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...RESULTING IN A LIGHT RETURN
FLOW.  DEEP LAYER MOISTURE THOUGH REMAINS LIMITED AND A RAINFREE
FORECAST CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS NEAR 60 ON
WEDNESDAY WILL BE NEAR SEASONABLE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
RANGE FROM 37 TO 42 INTERIOR TO MID/UPPER 40S AT THE COAST.

A SERIES OF WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVES ADVANCE ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
PHASE INTO AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES THURSDAY NIGHT.
AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PASSES WELL NORTH OF THE REGION AND BRINGS
A TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE TO SUPPORT SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. A SURFACE HIGH
BUILDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES
OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH ADVANCES
EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS SATURDAY AND INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY LATE SUNDAY.

RAINFREE CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN WILL
HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE LOCAL AREA SATURDAY. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE A BIT WHILE
SPREADING EAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS A SERIES OF MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AND INTERACTS WITH BETTER MOISTURE
PROFILES. A COLD FRONT IS ALSO PROGGED TO BE MAKING PASSAGE LATE
SUNDAY.

HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 60S...RANGING FROM THE MID 50S
TO NEAR 60 FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.  LOWS WILL MOSTLY
BE IN THE 40S. 10/29

AVIATION...
26.18Z TAF ISSUANCE...
VFR CIGS AND VSBY EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHWEST
WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS. WINDS WILL RELAX OVERNIGHT AND PICK BACK UP IN
THE MID MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY. 07/MB

MARINE...STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO RELAX THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS TONIGHT. LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MIDWEEK BECOMING SOUTH LATE IN THE WEEK AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD
FRONT. BEYOND TONIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. 07/MB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      39  65  38  60  43 /  00  00  00  00  00
PENSACOLA   42  64  39  58  45 /  00  00  00  00  00
DESTIN      44  63  42  57  48 /  00  00  00  00  00
EVERGREEN   36  62  34  60  37 /  00  00  00  00  00
WAYNESBORO  34  64  35  60  40 /  00  00  00  00  00
CAMDEN      36  61  34  59  37 /  00  00  00  00  00
CRESTVIEW   39  63  34  60  37 /  00  00  00  00  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMOB 270241 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
841 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.UPDATE...UPDATED CWF AND ZFP FORECASTS TO REMOVE HEADLINES (FOR
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK). OTHERWISE NO CHANES
OR ADJUSTMENT NEEDED...EXCEPT FOR DECREASING WINDS IN GRIDED DATA EVER
SO SLIGHTLY OVER THE MARINE AREA FOR THIS EVENING. WILL HEADLINE CWF
WITH SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. 12/DS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015/

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT]...THE CLOUD DECK SITUATED
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF OUR CWA HAS FINALLY SCATTERED OUT
THIS AFTERNOON. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO QUICKLY SHIFT
EAST OF THE REGION WITH A RIDGE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT. ALL OF THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR THE CURRENT GUSTY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA TO DROP
OFF OVERNIGHT. CLEARING SKIES AND RELAXING WINDS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH LOW 40S CLOSER TO THE COAST.
HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S ACROSS SOUTHEAST MS AND
NORTHWEST FL PANHANDLE TO LOW 60S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AL. 07/MB

WELL DEFINED HIGH LEVEL TROUGH AXIS HUGS THE EASTERN SEABOARD...
WHILE AN AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NOSES NORTHWARD FROM
MEXICO...UP ACROSS THE PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT. A DEEP LAYER...DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE. AXIS OF SURFACE HIGH MOVES
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...RESULTING IN A
LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND PATTERN. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE
IN THE MID 30S OVER THE INTERIOR TO THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S CLOSE TO
THE COAST. /10

LONG TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS MORE TO
THE EAST OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...RESULTING IN A LIGHT RETURN
FLOW.  DEEP LAYER MOISTURE THOUGH REMAINS LIMITED AND A RAINFREE
FORECAST CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS NEAR 60 ON
WEDNESDAY WILL BE NEAR SEASONABLE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
RANGE FROM 37 TO 42 INTERIOR TO MID/UPPER 40S AT THE COAST.

A SERIES OF WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVES ADVANCE ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
PHASE INTO AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES THURSDAY NIGHT.
AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PASSES WELL NORTH OF THE REGION AND BRINGS
A TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE TO SUPPORT SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. A SURFACE HIGH
BUILDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES
OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH ADVANCES
EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS SATURDAY AND INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY LATE SUNDAY.

RAINFREE CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN WILL
HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE LOCAL AREA SATURDAY. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE A BIT WHILE
SPREADING EAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS A SERIES OF MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AND INTERACTS WITH BETTER MOISTURE
PROFILES. A COLD FRONT IS ALSO PROGGED TO BE MAKING PASSAGE LATE
SUNDAY.

HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 60S...RANGING FROM THE MID 50S
TO NEAR 60 FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.  LOWS WILL MOSTLY
BE IN THE 40S. 10/29

AVIATION...
26.18Z TAF ISSUANCE...
VFR CIGS AND VSBY EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHWEST
WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS. WINDS WILL RELAX OVERNIGHT AND PICK BACK UP IN
THE MID MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY. 07/MB

MARINE...STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO RELAX THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS TONIGHT. LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MIDWEEK BECOMING SOUTH LATE IN THE WEEK AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD
FRONT. BEYOND TONIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. 07/MB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      39  65  38  60  43 /  00  00  00  00  00
PENSACOLA   42  64  39  58  45 /  00  00  00  00  00
DESTIN      44  63  42  57  48 /  00  00  00  00  00
EVERGREEN   36  62  34  60  37 /  00  00  00  00  00
WAYNESBORO  34  64  35  60  40 /  00  00  00  00  00
CAMDEN      36  61  34  59  37 /  00  00  00  00  00
CRESTVIEW   39  63  34  60  37 /  00  00  00  00  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KMOB 262158
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
358 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT]...THE CLOUD DECK SITUATED
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF OUR CWA HAS FINALLY SCATTERED OUT
THIS AFTERNOON. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO QUICKLY SHIFT
EAST OF THE REGION WITH A RIDGE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT. ALL OF THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR THE CURRENT GUSTY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA TO DROP
OFF OVERNIGHT. CLEARING SKIES AND RELAXING WINDS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH LOW 40S CLOSER TO THE COAST.
HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S ACROSS SOUTHEAST MS AND
NORTHWEST FL PANHANDLE TO LOW 60S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AL. 07/MB

WELL DEFINED HIGH LEVEL TROUGH AXIS HUGS THE EASTERN SEABOARD...
WHILE AN AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NOSES NORTHWARD FROM
MEXICO...UP ACROSS THE PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT. A DEEP LAYER...DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE. AXIS OF SURFACE HIGH MOVES
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...RESULTING IN A
LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND PATTERN. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE
IN THE MID 30S OVER THE INTERIOR TO THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S CLOSE TO
THE COAST. /10

.LONG TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS MORE TO
THE EAST OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...RESULTING IN A LIGHT RETURN
FLOW.  DEEP LAYER MOISTURE THOUGH REMAINS LIMITED AND A RAINFREE
FORECAST CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS NEAR 60 ON
WEDNESDAY WILL BE NEAR SEASONABLE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
RANGE FROM 37 TO 42 INTERIOR TO MID/UPPER 40S AT THE COAST.

A SERIES OF WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVES ADVANCE ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
PHASE INTO AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES THURSDAY NIGHT.
AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PASSES WELL NORTH OF THE REGION AND BRINGS
A TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE TO SUPPORT SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. A SURFACE HIGH
BUILDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES
OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH ADVANCES
EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS SATURDAY AND INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY LATE SUNDAY.

RAINFREE CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN WILL
HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE LOCAL AREA SATURDAY. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE A BIT WHILE
SPREADING EAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS A SERIES OF MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AND INTERACTS WITH BETTER MOISTURE
PROFILES. A COLD FRONT IS ALSO PROGGED TO BE MAKING PASSAGE LATE
SUNDAY.

HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 60S...RANGING FROM THE MID 50S
TO NEAR 60 FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.  LOWS WILL MOSTLY
BE IN THE 40S. 10/29

&&

.AVIATION...
26.18Z TAF ISSUANCE...
VFR CIGS AND VSBY EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHWEST
WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS. WINDS WILL RELAX OVERNIGHT AND PICK BACK UP IN
THE MID MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY. 07/MB

&&

.MARINE...STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO RELAX THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS TONIGHT. LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MIDWEEK BECOMING SOUTH LATE IN THE WEEK AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD
FRONT. BEYOND TONIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. 07/MB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      39  65  38  60  43 /  00  00  00  00  00
PENSACOLA   42  64  39  58  45 /  00  00  00  00  00
DESTIN      44  63  42  57  48 /  00  00  00  00  00
EVERGREEN   36  62  34  60  37 /  00  00  00  00  00
WAYNESBORO  34  64  35  60  40 /  00  00  00  00  00
CAMDEN      36  61  34  59  37 /  00  00  00  00  00
CRESTVIEW   39  63  34  60  37 /  00  00  00  00  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20
     NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMOB 262158
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
358 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT]...THE CLOUD DECK SITUATED
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF OUR CWA HAS FINALLY SCATTERED OUT
THIS AFTERNOON. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO QUICKLY SHIFT
EAST OF THE REGION WITH A RIDGE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT. ALL OF THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR THE CURRENT GUSTY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA TO DROP
OFF OVERNIGHT. CLEARING SKIES AND RELAXING WINDS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH LOW 40S CLOSER TO THE COAST.
HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S ACROSS SOUTHEAST MS AND
NORTHWEST FL PANHANDLE TO LOW 60S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AL. 07/MB

WELL DEFINED HIGH LEVEL TROUGH AXIS HUGS THE EASTERN SEABOARD...
WHILE AN AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NOSES NORTHWARD FROM
MEXICO...UP ACROSS THE PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT. A DEEP LAYER...DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE. AXIS OF SURFACE HIGH MOVES
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...RESULTING IN A
LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND PATTERN. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE
IN THE MID 30S OVER THE INTERIOR TO THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S CLOSE TO
THE COAST. /10

.LONG TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS MORE TO
THE EAST OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...RESULTING IN A LIGHT RETURN
FLOW.  DEEP LAYER MOISTURE THOUGH REMAINS LIMITED AND A RAINFREE
FORECAST CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS NEAR 60 ON
WEDNESDAY WILL BE NEAR SEASONABLE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
RANGE FROM 37 TO 42 INTERIOR TO MID/UPPER 40S AT THE COAST.

A SERIES OF WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVES ADVANCE ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
PHASE INTO AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES THURSDAY NIGHT.
AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PASSES WELL NORTH OF THE REGION AND BRINGS
A TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE TO SUPPORT SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. A SURFACE HIGH
BUILDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES
OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH ADVANCES
EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS SATURDAY AND INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY LATE SUNDAY.

RAINFREE CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN WILL
HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE LOCAL AREA SATURDAY. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE A BIT WHILE
SPREADING EAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS A SERIES OF MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AND INTERACTS WITH BETTER MOISTURE
PROFILES. A COLD FRONT IS ALSO PROGGED TO BE MAKING PASSAGE LATE
SUNDAY.

HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 60S...RANGING FROM THE MID 50S
TO NEAR 60 FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.  LOWS WILL MOSTLY
BE IN THE 40S. 10/29

&&

.AVIATION...
26.18Z TAF ISSUANCE...
VFR CIGS AND VSBY EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHWEST
WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS. WINDS WILL RELAX OVERNIGHT AND PICK BACK UP IN
THE MID MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY. 07/MB

&&

.MARINE...STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO RELAX THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS TONIGHT. LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MIDWEEK BECOMING SOUTH LATE IN THE WEEK AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD
FRONT. BEYOND TONIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. 07/MB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      39  65  38  60  43 /  00  00  00  00  00
PENSACOLA   42  64  39  58  45 /  00  00  00  00  00
DESTIN      44  63  42  57  48 /  00  00  00  00  00
EVERGREEN   36  62  34  60  37 /  00  00  00  00  00
WAYNESBORO  34  64  35  60  40 /  00  00  00  00  00
CAMDEN      36  61  34  59  37 /  00  00  00  00  00
CRESTVIEW   39  63  34  60  37 /  00  00  00  00  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20
     NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...

&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KMOB 261822 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1222 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF ISSUANCE.
VFR CIGS AND VSBY EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHWEST
WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND PICK BACK UP IN
THE MID MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY. 07/MB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 455 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT...BROAD MID TO UPPER TROF AXIS STRETCHING FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION TO THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST
THROUGH TONIGHT ALLOWING A SFC RIDGE OVER MUCH OF E TEXAS AND WESTERN
GULF TO SLOWLY SHIFT EAST THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS PATTERN WILL ALLOW
SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST TO DIMINISH
SLOWLY THROUGH TONIGHT. LATEST VAD WIND PROFILES FROM SURROUNDING
RADARS CONTINUE TO SHOW WINDS AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS AT 1 TO 2 KFT ABOVE
THE SURFACE POSSIBLY LEADING A MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW
MOSTLY OVER THE LOWER HALF OF THE CWFA LATER THIS MORNING AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXES AFTER SUNRISE. LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW WINDS
DIMINISHING LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE RIDGE TO THE WEST
SHIFTS EAST. LATEST SATELLITE LOOPS ALSO SHOW AN AREA OF LOW TO MID
CLOUDS MOVING SOUTH TOWARDS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST POSSIBLY LEADING
TO MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE
CWFA THIS MORNING AND POSSIBLY THIS AFTERNOON. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE
TO MENTION BETTER CLOUDS IN THESE AREAS THIS MORNING ERODING DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. AS FOR TEMPS WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE
CURRENT MAV GUIDANCE WITH LITTLE CHANCE DUE TO GOOD MIXING REFORMING
IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER THIS MORNING. HIGHS TODAY WILL CLIMB TO THE MID
50S FOR MOST AREAS. FOR TONIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LESS WIND
NEAR THE SURFACE TONIGHTS LOWS WILL FALL TO THE MID 30S FOR AREAS
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND THE LOWER 40S FURTHER SOUTH
TOWARDS THE COAST. 32/EE

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE
EASTERN COAST MOVES SLOWLY OFF INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH A
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT.  A LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT THEN
SWITCHES TO A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA.  DEEP LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS
LIMITED AND A DRY FORECAST CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  HIGHS
ON TUESDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW
TO MID 60S THEN MORE SEASONABLE VALUES NEAR 60 FOLLOW FOR
WEDNESDAY.  LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID/UPPER 30S FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA THEN LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE WARMER WITH THE LIGHT
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND RANGE FROM NEAR 40 INLAND TO THE MID 40S CLOSER
TO THE COAST. /29

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...A SERIES OF WELL DEFINED
SHORTWAVES ADVANCE ACROSS THE PLAINS AND PHASE INTO AN UPPER TROF
OVER THE EASTERN STATES THURSDAY NIGHT.  AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
PASSES WELL NORTH OF THE REGION AND BRINGS A TRAILING COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE IS IN PLACE
TO SUPPORT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.  A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY WHILE THE
UPPER TROF MOVES OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY THEN ANOTHER UPPER
TROF ADVANCES FROM THE PLAINS.  DRY CONDITIONS FOLLOW FOR FRIDAY
THEN WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DEVELOPING SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...INCREASING TO
CHANCE POPS BY SUNDAY.  HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 60S
THEN HIGHS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
50S TO NEAR 60.  LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 40S. /29

MARINE...A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA THIS MORNING
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT AS A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE
EAST TEXAS AND WESTERN GULF SHIFTS EAST. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO NEAR
GALE FORCE WITH SEAS UP TO 9 FT WILL BE LIKELY WELL OFFSHORE MOSTLY
THIS MORNING. AS A RESULT A SMALL CRAFT CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THE INLAND WATERS THROUGH THIS MORNING AND THE OPEN GULF
WATERS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. A LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK BECOMING MOSTLY SOUTH
LATER IN THE WEEK AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF
BY FRIDAY. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      39  65  38  60  44 /  00  00  00  00  00
PENSACOLA   42  64  39  58  45 /  00  00  00  00  00
DESTIN      44  63  42  57  48 /  00  00  00  00  00
EVERGREEN   35  62  34  60  39 /  00  00  00  00  00
WAYNESBORO  36  65  35  60  40 /  00  00  00  00  00
CAMDEN      35  62  34  59  39 /  00  00  00  00  05
CRESTVIEW   39  64  34  60  39 /  00  00  00  00  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20
     NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...

&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KMOB 261822 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1222 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF ISSUANCE.
VFR CIGS AND VSBY EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHWEST
WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND PICK BACK UP IN
THE MID MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY. 07/MB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 455 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT...BROAD MID TO UPPER TROF AXIS STRETCHING FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION TO THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST
THROUGH TONIGHT ALLOWING A SFC RIDGE OVER MUCH OF E TEXAS AND WESTERN
GULF TO SLOWLY SHIFT EAST THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS PATTERN WILL ALLOW
SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST TO DIMINISH
SLOWLY THROUGH TONIGHT. LATEST VAD WIND PROFILES FROM SURROUNDING
RADARS CONTINUE TO SHOW WINDS AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS AT 1 TO 2 KFT ABOVE
THE SURFACE POSSIBLY LEADING A MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW
MOSTLY OVER THE LOWER HALF OF THE CWFA LATER THIS MORNING AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXES AFTER SUNRISE. LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW WINDS
DIMINISHING LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE RIDGE TO THE WEST
SHIFTS EAST. LATEST SATELLITE LOOPS ALSO SHOW AN AREA OF LOW TO MID
CLOUDS MOVING SOUTH TOWARDS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST POSSIBLY LEADING
TO MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE
CWFA THIS MORNING AND POSSIBLY THIS AFTERNOON. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE
TO MENTION BETTER CLOUDS IN THESE AREAS THIS MORNING ERODING DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. AS FOR TEMPS WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE
CURRENT MAV GUIDANCE WITH LITTLE CHANCE DUE TO GOOD MIXING REFORMING
IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER THIS MORNING. HIGHS TODAY WILL CLIMB TO THE MID
50S FOR MOST AREAS. FOR TONIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LESS WIND
NEAR THE SURFACE TONIGHTS LOWS WILL FALL TO THE MID 30S FOR AREAS
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND THE LOWER 40S FURTHER SOUTH
TOWARDS THE COAST. 32/EE

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE
EASTERN COAST MOVES SLOWLY OFF INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH A
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT.  A LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT THEN
SWITCHES TO A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA.  DEEP LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS
LIMITED AND A DRY FORECAST CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  HIGHS
ON TUESDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW
TO MID 60S THEN MORE SEASONABLE VALUES NEAR 60 FOLLOW FOR
WEDNESDAY.  LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID/UPPER 30S FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA THEN LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE WARMER WITH THE LIGHT
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND RANGE FROM NEAR 40 INLAND TO THE MID 40S CLOSER
TO THE COAST. /29

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...A SERIES OF WELL DEFINED
SHORTWAVES ADVANCE ACROSS THE PLAINS AND PHASE INTO AN UPPER TROF
OVER THE EASTERN STATES THURSDAY NIGHT.  AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
PASSES WELL NORTH OF THE REGION AND BRINGS A TRAILING COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE IS IN PLACE
TO SUPPORT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.  A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY WHILE THE
UPPER TROF MOVES OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY THEN ANOTHER UPPER
TROF ADVANCES FROM THE PLAINS.  DRY CONDITIONS FOLLOW FOR FRIDAY
THEN WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DEVELOPING SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...INCREASING TO
CHANCE POPS BY SUNDAY.  HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 60S
THEN HIGHS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
50S TO NEAR 60.  LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 40S. /29

MARINE...A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA THIS MORNING
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT AS A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE
EAST TEXAS AND WESTERN GULF SHIFTS EAST. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO NEAR
GALE FORCE WITH SEAS UP TO 9 FT WILL BE LIKELY WELL OFFSHORE MOSTLY
THIS MORNING. AS A RESULT A SMALL CRAFT CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THE INLAND WATERS THROUGH THIS MORNING AND THE OPEN GULF
WATERS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. A LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK BECOMING MOSTLY SOUTH
LATER IN THE WEEK AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF
BY FRIDAY. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      39  65  38  60  44 /  00  00  00  00  00
PENSACOLA   42  64  39  58  45 /  00  00  00  00  00
DESTIN      44  63  42  57  48 /  00  00  00  00  00
EVERGREEN   35  62  34  60  39 /  00  00  00  00  00
WAYNESBORO  36  65  35  60  40 /  00  00  00  00  00
CAMDEN      35  62  34  59  39 /  00  00  00  00  05
CRESTVIEW   39  64  34  60  39 /  00  00  00  00  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20
     NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMOB 261055
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
455 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT...BROAD MID TO UPPER TROF AXIS STRETCHING FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION TO THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST
THROUGH TONIGHT ALLOWING A SFC RIDGE OVER MUCH OF E TEXAS AND WESTERN
GULF TO SLOWLY SHIFT EAST THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS PATTERN WILL ALLOW
SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST TO DIMINISH
SLOWLY THROUGH TONIGHT. LATEST VAD WIND PROFILES FROM SURROUNDING
RADARS CONTINUE TO SHOW WINDS AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS AT 1 TO 2 KFT ABOVE
THE SURFACE POSSIBLY LEADING A MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW
MOSTLY OVER THE LOWER HALF OF THE CWFA LATER THIS MORNING AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXES AFTER SUNRISE. LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW WINDS
DIMINISHING LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE RIDGE TO THE WEST
SHIFTS EAST. LATEST SATELLITE LOOPS ALSO SHOW AN AREA OF LOW TO MID
CLOUDS MOVING SOUTH TOWARDS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST POSSIBLY LEADING
TO MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE
CWFA THIS MORNING AND POSSIBLY THIS AFTERNOON. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE
TO MENTION BETTER CLOUDS IN THESE AREAS THIS MORNING ERODING DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. AS FOR TEMPS WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE
CURRENT MAV GUIDANCE WITH LITTLE CHANCE DUE TO GOOD MIXING REFORMING
IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER THIS MORNING. HIGHS TODAY WILL CLIMB TO THE MID
50S FOR MOST AREAS. FOR TONIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LESS WIND
NEAR THE SURFACE TONIGHTS LOWS WILL FALL TO THE MID 30S FOR AREAS
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND THE LOWER 40S FURTHER SOUTH
TOWARDS THE COAST. 32/EE

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE
EASTERN COAST MOVES SLOWLY OFF INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH A
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT.  A LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT THEN
SWITCHES TO A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA.  DEEP LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS
LIMITED AND A DRY FORECAST CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  HIGHS
ON TUESDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW
TO MID 60S THEN MORE SEASONABLE VALUES NEAR 60 FOLLOW FOR
WEDNESDAY.  LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID/UPPER 30S FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA THEN LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE WARMER WITH THE LIGHT
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND RANGE FROM NEAR 40 INLAND TO THE MID 40S CLOSER
TO THE COAST. /29

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...A SERIES OF WELL DEFINED
SHORTWAVES ADVANCE ACROSS THE PLAINS AND PHASE INTO AN UPPER TROF
OVER THE EASTERN STATES THURSDAY NIGHT.  AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
PASSES WELL NORTH OF THE REGION AND BRINGS A TRAILING COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE IS IN PLACE
TO SUPPORT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.  A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY WHILE THE
UPPER TROF MOVES OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY THEN ANOTHER UPPER
TROF ADVANCES FROM THE PLAINS.  DRY CONDITIONS FOLLOW FOR FRIDAY
THEN WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DEVELOPING SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...INCREASING TO
CHANCE POPS BY SUNDAY.  HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 60S
THEN HIGHS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
50S TO NEAR 60.  LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 40S. /29

&&

.AVIATION...
26.12Z TAF ISSUANCE...
VFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES THROUGH 27.12Z. EXPECT A FEW MID TO HIGH
CLOUDS THROUGH THE FORECAST PD. WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS THROUGH THIS MORNING THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISHING
TO 4 TO 8 KNOTS THROUGH THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. 32/EE

&&

.MARINE...A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA THIS MORNING
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT AS A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE
EAST TEXAS AND WESTERN GULF SHIFTS EAST. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO NEAR GALE
FORCE WITH SEAS UP TO 9 FT WILL BE LIKELY WELL OFFSHORE MOSTLY THIS
MORNING. AS A RESULT A SMALL CRAFT CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
THE INLAND WATERS THROUGH THIS MORNING AND THE OPEN GULF WATERS THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. A LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK BECOMING MOSTLY SOUTH LATER IN THE WEEK
AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF BY FRIDAY. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      56  39  65  38  60 /  00  00  00  00  00
PENSACOLA   57  42  64  39  58 /  00  00  00  00  00
DESTIN      57  44  63  42  57 /  00  00  00  00  00
EVERGREEN   53  35  62  34  60 /  00  00  00  00  00
WAYNESBORO  54  36  65  35  60 /  00  00  00  00  00
CAMDEN      54  35  62  34  59 /  00  00  00  00  00
CRESTVIEW   55  39  64  34  60 /  00  00  00  00  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...NORTHERN MOBILE
     BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...PERDIDO BAY...SOUTHERN MOBILE
     BAY...

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20
     NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMOB 261055
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
455 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT...BROAD MID TO UPPER TROF AXIS STRETCHING FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION TO THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST
THROUGH TONIGHT ALLOWING A SFC RIDGE OVER MUCH OF E TEXAS AND WESTERN
GULF TO SLOWLY SHIFT EAST THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS PATTERN WILL ALLOW
SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST TO DIMINISH
SLOWLY THROUGH TONIGHT. LATEST VAD WIND PROFILES FROM SURROUNDING
RADARS CONTINUE TO SHOW WINDS AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS AT 1 TO 2 KFT ABOVE
THE SURFACE POSSIBLY LEADING A MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW
MOSTLY OVER THE LOWER HALF OF THE CWFA LATER THIS MORNING AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXES AFTER SUNRISE. LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW WINDS
DIMINISHING LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE RIDGE TO THE WEST
SHIFTS EAST. LATEST SATELLITE LOOPS ALSO SHOW AN AREA OF LOW TO MID
CLOUDS MOVING SOUTH TOWARDS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST POSSIBLY LEADING
TO MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE
CWFA THIS MORNING AND POSSIBLY THIS AFTERNOON. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE
TO MENTION BETTER CLOUDS IN THESE AREAS THIS MORNING ERODING DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. AS FOR TEMPS WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE
CURRENT MAV GUIDANCE WITH LITTLE CHANCE DUE TO GOOD MIXING REFORMING
IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER THIS MORNING. HIGHS TODAY WILL CLIMB TO THE MID
50S FOR MOST AREAS. FOR TONIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LESS WIND
NEAR THE SURFACE TONIGHTS LOWS WILL FALL TO THE MID 30S FOR AREAS
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND THE LOWER 40S FURTHER SOUTH
TOWARDS THE COAST. 32/EE

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE
EASTERN COAST MOVES SLOWLY OFF INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH A
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT.  A LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT THEN
SWITCHES TO A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA.  DEEP LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS
LIMITED AND A DRY FORECAST CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  HIGHS
ON TUESDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW
TO MID 60S THEN MORE SEASONABLE VALUES NEAR 60 FOLLOW FOR
WEDNESDAY.  LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID/UPPER 30S FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA THEN LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE WARMER WITH THE LIGHT
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND RANGE FROM NEAR 40 INLAND TO THE MID 40S CLOSER
TO THE COAST. /29

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...A SERIES OF WELL DEFINED
SHORTWAVES ADVANCE ACROSS THE PLAINS AND PHASE INTO AN UPPER TROF
OVER THE EASTERN STATES THURSDAY NIGHT.  AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
PASSES WELL NORTH OF THE REGION AND BRINGS A TRAILING COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE IS IN PLACE
TO SUPPORT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.  A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY WHILE THE
UPPER TROF MOVES OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY THEN ANOTHER UPPER
TROF ADVANCES FROM THE PLAINS.  DRY CONDITIONS FOLLOW FOR FRIDAY
THEN WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DEVELOPING SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...INCREASING TO
CHANCE POPS BY SUNDAY.  HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 60S
THEN HIGHS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
50S TO NEAR 60.  LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 40S. /29

&&

.AVIATION...
26.12Z TAF ISSUANCE...
VFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES THROUGH 27.12Z. EXPECT A FEW MID TO HIGH
CLOUDS THROUGH THE FORECAST PD. WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS THROUGH THIS MORNING THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISHING
TO 4 TO 8 KNOTS THROUGH THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. 32/EE

&&

.MARINE...A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA THIS MORNING
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT AS A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE
EAST TEXAS AND WESTERN GULF SHIFTS EAST. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO NEAR GALE
FORCE WITH SEAS UP TO 9 FT WILL BE LIKELY WELL OFFSHORE MOSTLY THIS
MORNING. AS A RESULT A SMALL CRAFT CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
THE INLAND WATERS THROUGH THIS MORNING AND THE OPEN GULF WATERS THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. A LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK BECOMING MOSTLY SOUTH LATER IN THE WEEK
AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF BY FRIDAY. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      56  39  65  38  60 /  00  00  00  00  00
PENSACOLA   57  42  64  39  58 /  00  00  00  00  00
DESTIN      57  44  63  42  57 /  00  00  00  00  00
EVERGREEN   53  35  62  34  60 /  00  00  00  00  00
WAYNESBORO  54  36  65  35  60 /  00  00  00  00  00
CAMDEN      54  35  62  34  59 /  00  00  00  00  00
CRESTVIEW   55  39  64  34  60 /  00  00  00  00  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...NORTHERN MOBILE
     BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...PERDIDO BAY...SOUTHERN MOBILE
     BAY...

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20
     NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMOB 260554
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...AVIATION AND UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1145 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.AVIATION...26/06Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FCST
PERIOD. SFC WINDS HAVE DECREASED SOME THIS EVENING...MAINLY WESTERLY
AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS (EXCEPT AT THE COAST WHERE STILL BREEZY AND
GUSTY UP TO AROUND 15 KNOTS AT TIMES).  STRONGER NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS CONTINUE ONLY A FEW THOUSAND FEET OFF THE SFC
HOWEVER. WITH THIS...STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY SFC FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO RETURN AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW AS MIXING BEGINS. 12/DS

.UPDATE...NO CHANGES TO PUBLIC OR MARINE FCSTS REQUIRED THIS
EVENING. 12/DS

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT]...A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY OVER THE MID SOUTH WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
TONIGHT AND OFF THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM
WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING AND WILL BE
EAST OF THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT. A LACK OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL RESULT IN A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE OVER MOST OF THE AREA. A VERY
BRIEF ISOLATED SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN
AREAS (I.E. BUTLER...CAMDEN... GREENVILLE) THIS EVENING DUE TO THE
STRONG UPPER FORCING OF THE SHORTWAVE. HOWEVER...THE CHANCE OF
MEASURABLE RAIN IS STILL LESS THAN 20% OVER THOSE AREAS. THERE WILL
BE AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WHERE SKIES WILL TURN MOSTLY
CLOUDY. WINDS WILL STAY BREEZY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUING ALONG THE COAST AFTER
THE FROPA LATE TONIGHT. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S.

DEEP LAYER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL RESULT IN A DRY AND COOL DAY ON
MONDAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EARLY IN
THE MORNING BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY BY MIDDAY. FREQUENT GUSTS OF 25-30
MPH LIKELY BY MID MORNING AS DAYTIME MIXING BRINGS DOWN STRONGER
WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S WELL
INLAND WITH UPPER 50S ALONG THE COAST. 34/JFB

AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN ALOFT IS FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT WITH A DEEP
TROUGH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND UPPER RIDGING EXTENDING
NORTHWARD...UP INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS RESULTS IN A DRY DEEP
LAYER NORTHWEST FLOW. A LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND AND COOL TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT AS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST IS POSITIONED
BETWEEN A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE WESTERN GULF AND A DEPARTING SURFACE
LOW...LIFTING UP ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND STATES.
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES LOOK TO MOSTLY BE IN THE MID 30S INTERIOR
TO LOWER 40S COASTAL ZONES. /10

.LONG TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY]...WITH UPPER TROUGH OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST AND UPPER RIDGING FROM MEXICO INTO TEXAS...DRY DEEP
LAYER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINS PARKED OVER THE AREA WITH A RAINFREE
FORECAST TO START OFF THE MEDIUM RANGE. TUESDAY`S HIGHS IN THE LOWER
60S.

WHILE THE LONGWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES SLOWLY OFF INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AMPLIFIES INTO AN UPPER TROUGH WHICH
ADVANCES INTO THE EASTERN STATES ON THURSDAY AND LATER INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVES EAST OUT OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...BRINGING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN A SMALL
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT AS MARGINAL MOISTURE...ALONG WITH FRONTAL FORCING LOOKS TO BE
SUFFICIENT ENOUGH. SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND. DESPITE THIS...A SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT
RAIN POSSIBLE BY LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS EASTWARD MOVING MID
LEVEL IMPULSES IN THE FLOW ALOFT OPERATE ON MARGINAL MOISTURE LEVELS.

TEMPERATURES WARM TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...THEN WILL BE NEAR OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE OUTLOOK. /10

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON WITH FREQUENT GUSTS
AROUND 25 KT. WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHWEST BY LATE TONIGHT (ROUGHLY
AROUND 06Z) AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. WHILE GUSTS WILL
NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG TONIGHT...IT WILL STILL BE BREEZY THROUGH MUCH
OF THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. FREQUENT GUSTS AROUND 25
KT ARE LIKELY TO REDEVELOP BY 14-15Z MONDAY. SCATTERED CLOUDS WITH
BASES AROUND 2500 FT CAN BE EXPECTED FROM PRIOR TO SUNRISE THROUGH
MID MONDAY MORNING. AN OCCASIONALLY BROKEN MVFR CIG IS POSSIBLE
DURING THIS TIME. 34/JFB

&&

.MARINE...STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT AHEAD OF AND IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE COASTAL
WATERS AND OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE OPEN
GULF WATERS TONIGHT. SEAS BUILD TO 5-7 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND 7-9 FT
FROM 20-60NM. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL REMAIN NEAR 20 KT OVER
THE GULF WATERS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AND WE HAVE EXTENDED THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6PM MONDAY FOR THOSE AREAS.

A LIGHT TO MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW PREVAIL MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND GRADUALLY VEER THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS A SFC RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD. A BRIEF PERIOD OF ONSHORE
WINDS EXPECTED THURSDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT...WITH MODERATE
TO STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS REDEVELOPING ON FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF THAT
FRONTAL PASSAGE. 34/JFB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      40  56  39  64  37 /  05  00  00  00  00
PENSACOLA   42  57  41  64  41 /  05  00  00  00  00
DESTIN      45  56  43  64  43 /  05  00  00  00  00
EVERGREEN   39  53  35  63  34 /  10  00  00  00  00
WAYNESBORO  39  54  36  65  34 /  10  00  00  00  00
CAMDEN      39  51  34  63  34 /  10  00  00  00  00
CRESTVIEW   41  55  36  66  36 /  05  00  00  00  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...NORTHERN MOBILE
     BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...PERDIDO BAY...SOUTHERN MOBILE
     BAY...

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20
     NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...

&&

$$












000
FXUS64 KMOB 260554
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...AVIATION AND UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1145 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.AVIATION...26/06Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FCST
PERIOD. SFC WINDS HAVE DECREASED SOME THIS EVENING...MAINLY WESTERLY
AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS (EXCEPT AT THE COAST WHERE STILL BREEZY AND
GUSTY UP TO AROUND 15 KNOTS AT TIMES).  STRONGER NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS CONTINUE ONLY A FEW THOUSAND FEET OFF THE SFC
HOWEVER. WITH THIS...STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY SFC FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO RETURN AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW AS MIXING BEGINS. 12/DS

.UPDATE...NO CHANGES TO PUBLIC OR MARINE FCSTS REQUIRED THIS
EVENING. 12/DS

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT]...A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY OVER THE MID SOUTH WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
TONIGHT AND OFF THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM
WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING AND WILL BE
EAST OF THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT. A LACK OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL RESULT IN A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE OVER MOST OF THE AREA. A VERY
BRIEF ISOLATED SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN
AREAS (I.E. BUTLER...CAMDEN... GREENVILLE) THIS EVENING DUE TO THE
STRONG UPPER FORCING OF THE SHORTWAVE. HOWEVER...THE CHANCE OF
MEASURABLE RAIN IS STILL LESS THAN 20% OVER THOSE AREAS. THERE WILL
BE AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WHERE SKIES WILL TURN MOSTLY
CLOUDY. WINDS WILL STAY BREEZY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUING ALONG THE COAST AFTER
THE FROPA LATE TONIGHT. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S.

DEEP LAYER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL RESULT IN A DRY AND COOL DAY ON
MONDAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EARLY IN
THE MORNING BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY BY MIDDAY. FREQUENT GUSTS OF 25-30
MPH LIKELY BY MID MORNING AS DAYTIME MIXING BRINGS DOWN STRONGER
WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S WELL
INLAND WITH UPPER 50S ALONG THE COAST. 34/JFB

AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN ALOFT IS FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT WITH A DEEP
TROUGH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND UPPER RIDGING EXTENDING
NORTHWARD...UP INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS RESULTS IN A DRY DEEP
LAYER NORTHWEST FLOW. A LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND AND COOL TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT AS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST IS POSITIONED
BETWEEN A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE WESTERN GULF AND A DEPARTING SURFACE
LOW...LIFTING UP ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND STATES.
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES LOOK TO MOSTLY BE IN THE MID 30S INTERIOR
TO LOWER 40S COASTAL ZONES. /10

.LONG TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY]...WITH UPPER TROUGH OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST AND UPPER RIDGING FROM MEXICO INTO TEXAS...DRY DEEP
LAYER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINS PARKED OVER THE AREA WITH A RAINFREE
FORECAST TO START OFF THE MEDIUM RANGE. TUESDAY`S HIGHS IN THE LOWER
60S.

WHILE THE LONGWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES SLOWLY OFF INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AMPLIFIES INTO AN UPPER TROUGH WHICH
ADVANCES INTO THE EASTERN STATES ON THURSDAY AND LATER INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVES EAST OUT OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...BRINGING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN A SMALL
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT AS MARGINAL MOISTURE...ALONG WITH FRONTAL FORCING LOOKS TO BE
SUFFICIENT ENOUGH. SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND. DESPITE THIS...A SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT
RAIN POSSIBLE BY LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS EASTWARD MOVING MID
LEVEL IMPULSES IN THE FLOW ALOFT OPERATE ON MARGINAL MOISTURE LEVELS.

TEMPERATURES WARM TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...THEN WILL BE NEAR OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE OUTLOOK. /10

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON WITH FREQUENT GUSTS
AROUND 25 KT. WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHWEST BY LATE TONIGHT (ROUGHLY
AROUND 06Z) AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. WHILE GUSTS WILL
NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG TONIGHT...IT WILL STILL BE BREEZY THROUGH MUCH
OF THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. FREQUENT GUSTS AROUND 25
KT ARE LIKELY TO REDEVELOP BY 14-15Z MONDAY. SCATTERED CLOUDS WITH
BASES AROUND 2500 FT CAN BE EXPECTED FROM PRIOR TO SUNRISE THROUGH
MID MONDAY MORNING. AN OCCASIONALLY BROKEN MVFR CIG IS POSSIBLE
DURING THIS TIME. 34/JFB

&&

.MARINE...STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT AHEAD OF AND IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE COASTAL
WATERS AND OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE OPEN
GULF WATERS TONIGHT. SEAS BUILD TO 5-7 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND 7-9 FT
FROM 20-60NM. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL REMAIN NEAR 20 KT OVER
THE GULF WATERS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AND WE HAVE EXTENDED THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6PM MONDAY FOR THOSE AREAS.

A LIGHT TO MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW PREVAIL MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND GRADUALLY VEER THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS A SFC RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD. A BRIEF PERIOD OF ONSHORE
WINDS EXPECTED THURSDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT...WITH MODERATE
TO STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS REDEVELOPING ON FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF THAT
FRONTAL PASSAGE. 34/JFB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      40  56  39  64  37 /  05  00  00  00  00
PENSACOLA   42  57  41  64  41 /  05  00  00  00  00
DESTIN      45  56  43  64  43 /  05  00  00  00  00
EVERGREEN   39  53  35  63  34 /  10  00  00  00  00
WAYNESBORO  39  54  36  65  34 /  10  00  00  00  00
CAMDEN      39  51  34  63  34 /  10  00  00  00  00
CRESTVIEW   41  55  36  66  36 /  05  00  00  00  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...NORTHERN MOBILE
     BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...PERDIDO BAY...SOUTHERN MOBILE
     BAY...

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20
     NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...

&&

$$













000
FXUS64 KMOB 252134
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
334 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT]...A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY OVER THE MID SOUTH WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
TONIGHT AND OFF THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM
WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING AND WILL BE
EAST OF THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT. A LACK OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL RESULT IN A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE OVER MOST OF THE AREA. A VERY
BRIEF ISOLATED SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN
AREAS (I.E. BUTLER...CAMDEN... GREENVILLE) THIS EVENING DUE TO THE
STRONG UPPER FORCING OF THE SHORTWAVE. HOWEVER...THE CHANCE OF
MEASURABLE RAIN IS STILL LESS THAN 20% OVER THOSE AREAS. THERE WILL
BE AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WHERE SKIES WILL TURN MOSTLY
CLOUDY. WINDS WILL STAY BREEZY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUING ALONG THE COAST AFTER
THE FROPA LATE TONIGHT. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S.

DEEP LAYER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL RESULT IN A DRY AND COOL DAY ON
MONDAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EARLY IN
THE MORNING BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY BY MIDDAY. FREQUENT GUSTS OF 25-30
MPH LIKELY BY MID MORNING AS DAYTIME MIXING BRINGS DOWN STRONGER
WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S WELL
INLAND WITH UPPER 50S ALONG THE COAST. 34/JFB

AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN ALOFT IS FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT WITH A DEEP
TROUGH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND UPPER RIDGING EXTENDING
NORTHWARD...UP INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS RESULTS IN A DRY DEEP
LAYER NORTHWEST FLOW. A LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND AND COOL TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT AS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST IS POSITIONED
BETWEEN A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE WESTERN GULF AND A DEPARTING SURFACE
LOW...LIFTING UP ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND STATES.
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES LOOK TO MOSTLY BE IN THE MID 30S INTERIOR
TO LOWER 40S COASTAL ZONES. /10

.LONG TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY]...WITH UPPER TROUGH OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST AND UPPER RIDGING FROM MEXICO INTO TEXAS...DRY DEEP
LAYER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINS PARKED OVER THE AREA WITH A RAINFREE
FORECAST TO START OFF THE MEDIUM RANGE. TUESDAY`S HIGHS IN THE LOWER
60S.

WHILE THE LONGWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES SLOWLY OFF INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AMPLIFIES INTO AN UPPER TROUGH WHICH
ADVANCES INTO THE EASTERN STATES ON THURSDAY AND LATER INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVES EAST OUT OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...BRINGING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN A SMALL
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT AS MARGINAL MOISTURE...ALONG WITH FRONTAL FORCING LOOKS TO BE
SUFFICIENT ENOUGH. SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND. DESPITE THIS...A SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT
RAIN POSSIBLE BY LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS EASTWARD MOVING MID
LEVEL IMPULSES IN THE FLOW ALOFT OPERATE ON MARGINAL MOISTURE LEVELS.

TEMPERATURES WARM TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...THEN WILL BE NEAR OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE OUTLOOK. /10

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z ISSUANCE.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON WITH FREQUENT GUSTS
AROUND 25 KT. WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHWEST BY LATE TONIGHT (ROUGHLY
AROUND 06Z) AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. WHILE GUSTS WILL
NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG TONIGHT...IT WILL STILL BE BREEZY THROUGH MUCH
OF THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. FREQUENT GUSTS AROUND 25 KT
ARE LIKELY TO REDEVELOP BY 14-15Z MONDAY. SCATTERED CLOUDS WITH BASES
AROUND 2500 FT CAN BE EXPECTED FROM PRIOR TO SUNRISE THROUGH MID
MONDAY MORNING. AN OCCASIONALLY BROKEN MVFR CIG IS POSSIBLE DURING
THIS TIME. 34/JFB

&&

.MARINE...STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT AHEAD OF AND IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE COASTAL
WATERS AND OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE OPEN
GULF WATERS TONIGHT. SEAS BUILD TO 5-7 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND 7-9 FT
FROM 20-60NM. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL REMAIN NEAR 20 KT OVER
THE GULF WATERS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AND WE HAVE EXTENDED THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6PM MONDAY FOR THOSE AREAS.

A LIGHT TO MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW PREVAIL MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND GRADUALLY VEER THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS A SFC RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD. A BRIEF PERIOD OF ONSHORE
WINDS EXPECTED THURSDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT...WITH MODERATE
TO STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS REDEVELOPING ON FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF THAT
FRONTAL PASSAGE. 34/JFB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      40  56  39  64  37 /  05  00  00  00  00
PENSACOLA   42  57  41  64  41 /  05  00  00  00  00
DESTIN      45  56  43  64  43 /  05  00  00  00  00
EVERGREEN   39  53  35  63  34 /  10  00  00  00  00
WAYNESBORO  39  54  36  65  34 /  10  00  00  00  00
CAMDEN      39  51  34  63  34 /  10  00  00  00  00
CRESTVIEW   41  55  36  66  36 /  05  00  00  00  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...NORTHERN MOBILE
     BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...PERDIDO BAY...SOUTHERN MOBILE
     BAY...

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20
     NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...

&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KMOB 252134
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
334 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT]...A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY OVER THE MID SOUTH WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
TONIGHT AND OFF THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM
WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING AND WILL BE
EAST OF THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT. A LACK OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL RESULT IN A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE OVER MOST OF THE AREA. A VERY
BRIEF ISOLATED SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN
AREAS (I.E. BUTLER...CAMDEN... GREENVILLE) THIS EVENING DUE TO THE
STRONG UPPER FORCING OF THE SHORTWAVE. HOWEVER...THE CHANCE OF
MEASURABLE RAIN IS STILL LESS THAN 20% OVER THOSE AREAS. THERE WILL
BE AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WHERE SKIES WILL TURN MOSTLY
CLOUDY. WINDS WILL STAY BREEZY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUING ALONG THE COAST AFTER
THE FROPA LATE TONIGHT. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S.

DEEP LAYER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL RESULT IN A DRY AND COOL DAY ON
MONDAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EARLY IN
THE MORNING BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY BY MIDDAY. FREQUENT GUSTS OF 25-30
MPH LIKELY BY MID MORNING AS DAYTIME MIXING BRINGS DOWN STRONGER
WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S WELL
INLAND WITH UPPER 50S ALONG THE COAST. 34/JFB

AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN ALOFT IS FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT WITH A DEEP
TROUGH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND UPPER RIDGING EXTENDING
NORTHWARD...UP INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS RESULTS IN A DRY DEEP
LAYER NORTHWEST FLOW. A LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND AND COOL TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT AS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST IS POSITIONED
BETWEEN A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE WESTERN GULF AND A DEPARTING SURFACE
LOW...LIFTING UP ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND STATES.
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES LOOK TO MOSTLY BE IN THE MID 30S INTERIOR
TO LOWER 40S COASTAL ZONES. /10

.LONG TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY]...WITH UPPER TROUGH OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST AND UPPER RIDGING FROM MEXICO INTO TEXAS...DRY DEEP
LAYER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINS PARKED OVER THE AREA WITH A RAINFREE
FORECAST TO START OFF THE MEDIUM RANGE. TUESDAY`S HIGHS IN THE LOWER
60S.

WHILE THE LONGWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES SLOWLY OFF INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AMPLIFIES INTO AN UPPER TROUGH WHICH
ADVANCES INTO THE EASTERN STATES ON THURSDAY AND LATER INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVES EAST OUT OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...BRINGING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN A SMALL
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT AS MARGINAL MOISTURE...ALONG WITH FRONTAL FORCING LOOKS TO BE
SUFFICIENT ENOUGH. SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND. DESPITE THIS...A SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT
RAIN POSSIBLE BY LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS EASTWARD MOVING MID
LEVEL IMPULSES IN THE FLOW ALOFT OPERATE ON MARGINAL MOISTURE LEVELS.

TEMPERATURES WARM TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...THEN WILL BE NEAR OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE OUTLOOK. /10

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z ISSUANCE.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON WITH FREQUENT GUSTS
AROUND 25 KT. WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHWEST BY LATE TONIGHT (ROUGHLY
AROUND 06Z) AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. WHILE GUSTS WILL
NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG TONIGHT...IT WILL STILL BE BREEZY THROUGH MUCH
OF THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. FREQUENT GUSTS AROUND 25 KT
ARE LIKELY TO REDEVELOP BY 14-15Z MONDAY. SCATTERED CLOUDS WITH BASES
AROUND 2500 FT CAN BE EXPECTED FROM PRIOR TO SUNRISE THROUGH MID
MONDAY MORNING. AN OCCASIONALLY BROKEN MVFR CIG IS POSSIBLE DURING
THIS TIME. 34/JFB

&&

.MARINE...STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT AHEAD OF AND IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE COASTAL
WATERS AND OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE OPEN
GULF WATERS TONIGHT. SEAS BUILD TO 5-7 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND 7-9 FT
FROM 20-60NM. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL REMAIN NEAR 20 KT OVER
THE GULF WATERS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AND WE HAVE EXTENDED THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6PM MONDAY FOR THOSE AREAS.

A LIGHT TO MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW PREVAIL MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND GRADUALLY VEER THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS A SFC RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD. A BRIEF PERIOD OF ONSHORE
WINDS EXPECTED THURSDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT...WITH MODERATE
TO STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS REDEVELOPING ON FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF THAT
FRONTAL PASSAGE. 34/JFB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      40  56  39  64  37 /  05  00  00  00  00
PENSACOLA   42  57  41  64  41 /  05  00  00  00  00
DESTIN      45  56  43  64  43 /  05  00  00  00  00
EVERGREEN   39  53  35  63  34 /  10  00  00  00  00
WAYNESBORO  39  54  36  65  34 /  10  00  00  00  00
CAMDEN      39  51  34  63  34 /  10  00  00  00  00
CRESTVIEW   41  55  36  66  36 /  05  00  00  00  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...NORTHERN MOBILE
     BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...PERDIDO BAY...SOUTHERN MOBILE
     BAY...

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20
     NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMOB 252134
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
334 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT]...A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY OVER THE MID SOUTH WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
TONIGHT AND OFF THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM
WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING AND WILL BE
EAST OF THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT. A LACK OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL RESULT IN A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE OVER MOST OF THE AREA. A VERY
BRIEF ISOLATED SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN
AREAS (I.E. BUTLER...CAMDEN... GREENVILLE) THIS EVENING DUE TO THE
STRONG UPPER FORCING OF THE SHORTWAVE. HOWEVER...THE CHANCE OF
MEASURABLE RAIN IS STILL LESS THAN 20% OVER THOSE AREAS. THERE WILL
BE AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WHERE SKIES WILL TURN MOSTLY
CLOUDY. WINDS WILL STAY BREEZY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUING ALONG THE COAST AFTER
THE FROPA LATE TONIGHT. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S.

DEEP LAYER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL RESULT IN A DRY AND COOL DAY ON
MONDAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EARLY IN
THE MORNING BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY BY MIDDAY. FREQUENT GUSTS OF 25-30
MPH LIKELY BY MID MORNING AS DAYTIME MIXING BRINGS DOWN STRONGER
WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S WELL
INLAND WITH UPPER 50S ALONG THE COAST. 34/JFB

AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN ALOFT IS FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT WITH A DEEP
TROUGH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND UPPER RIDGING EXTENDING
NORTHWARD...UP INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS RESULTS IN A DRY DEEP
LAYER NORTHWEST FLOW. A LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND AND COOL TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT AS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST IS POSITIONED
BETWEEN A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE WESTERN GULF AND A DEPARTING SURFACE
LOW...LIFTING UP ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND STATES.
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES LOOK TO MOSTLY BE IN THE MID 30S INTERIOR
TO LOWER 40S COASTAL ZONES. /10

.LONG TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY]...WITH UPPER TROUGH OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST AND UPPER RIDGING FROM MEXICO INTO TEXAS...DRY DEEP
LAYER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINS PARKED OVER THE AREA WITH A RAINFREE
FORECAST TO START OFF THE MEDIUM RANGE. TUESDAY`S HIGHS IN THE LOWER
60S.

WHILE THE LONGWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES SLOWLY OFF INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AMPLIFIES INTO AN UPPER TROUGH WHICH
ADVANCES INTO THE EASTERN STATES ON THURSDAY AND LATER INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVES EAST OUT OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...BRINGING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN A SMALL
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT AS MARGINAL MOISTURE...ALONG WITH FRONTAL FORCING LOOKS TO BE
SUFFICIENT ENOUGH. SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND. DESPITE THIS...A SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT
RAIN POSSIBLE BY LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS EASTWARD MOVING MID
LEVEL IMPULSES IN THE FLOW ALOFT OPERATE ON MARGINAL MOISTURE LEVELS.

TEMPERATURES WARM TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...THEN WILL BE NEAR OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE OUTLOOK. /10

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z ISSUANCE.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON WITH FREQUENT GUSTS
AROUND 25 KT. WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHWEST BY LATE TONIGHT (ROUGHLY
AROUND 06Z) AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. WHILE GUSTS WILL
NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG TONIGHT...IT WILL STILL BE BREEZY THROUGH MUCH
OF THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. FREQUENT GUSTS AROUND 25 KT
ARE LIKELY TO REDEVELOP BY 14-15Z MONDAY. SCATTERED CLOUDS WITH BASES
AROUND 2500 FT CAN BE EXPECTED FROM PRIOR TO SUNRISE THROUGH MID
MONDAY MORNING. AN OCCASIONALLY BROKEN MVFR CIG IS POSSIBLE DURING
THIS TIME. 34/JFB

&&

.MARINE...STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT AHEAD OF AND IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE COASTAL
WATERS AND OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE OPEN
GULF WATERS TONIGHT. SEAS BUILD TO 5-7 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND 7-9 FT
FROM 20-60NM. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL REMAIN NEAR 20 KT OVER
THE GULF WATERS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AND WE HAVE EXTENDED THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6PM MONDAY FOR THOSE AREAS.

A LIGHT TO MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW PREVAIL MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND GRADUALLY VEER THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS A SFC RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD. A BRIEF PERIOD OF ONSHORE
WINDS EXPECTED THURSDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT...WITH MODERATE
TO STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS REDEVELOPING ON FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF THAT
FRONTAL PASSAGE. 34/JFB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      40  56  39  64  37 /  05  00  00  00  00
PENSACOLA   42  57  41  64  41 /  05  00  00  00  00
DESTIN      45  56  43  64  43 /  05  00  00  00  00
EVERGREEN   39  53  35  63  34 /  10  00  00  00  00
WAYNESBORO  39  54  36  65  34 /  10  00  00  00  00
CAMDEN      39  51  34  63  34 /  10  00  00  00  00
CRESTVIEW   41  55  36  66  36 /  05  00  00  00  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...NORTHERN MOBILE
     BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...PERDIDO BAY...SOUTHERN MOBILE
     BAY...

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20
     NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...

&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KMOB 252134
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
334 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT]...A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY OVER THE MID SOUTH WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
TONIGHT AND OFF THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM
WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING AND WILL BE
EAST OF THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT. A LACK OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL RESULT IN A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE OVER MOST OF THE AREA. A VERY
BRIEF ISOLATED SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN
AREAS (I.E. BUTLER...CAMDEN... GREENVILLE) THIS EVENING DUE TO THE
STRONG UPPER FORCING OF THE SHORTWAVE. HOWEVER...THE CHANCE OF
MEASURABLE RAIN IS STILL LESS THAN 20% OVER THOSE AREAS. THERE WILL
BE AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WHERE SKIES WILL TURN MOSTLY
CLOUDY. WINDS WILL STAY BREEZY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUING ALONG THE COAST AFTER
THE FROPA LATE TONIGHT. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S.

DEEP LAYER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL RESULT IN A DRY AND COOL DAY ON
MONDAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EARLY IN
THE MORNING BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY BY MIDDAY. FREQUENT GUSTS OF 25-30
MPH LIKELY BY MID MORNING AS DAYTIME MIXING BRINGS DOWN STRONGER
WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S WELL
INLAND WITH UPPER 50S ALONG THE COAST. 34/JFB

AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN ALOFT IS FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT WITH A DEEP
TROUGH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND UPPER RIDGING EXTENDING
NORTHWARD...UP INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS RESULTS IN A DRY DEEP
LAYER NORTHWEST FLOW. A LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND AND COOL TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT AS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST IS POSITIONED
BETWEEN A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE WESTERN GULF AND A DEPARTING SURFACE
LOW...LIFTING UP ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND STATES.
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES LOOK TO MOSTLY BE IN THE MID 30S INTERIOR
TO LOWER 40S COASTAL ZONES. /10

.LONG TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY]...WITH UPPER TROUGH OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST AND UPPER RIDGING FROM MEXICO INTO TEXAS...DRY DEEP
LAYER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINS PARKED OVER THE AREA WITH A RAINFREE
FORECAST TO START OFF THE MEDIUM RANGE. TUESDAY`S HIGHS IN THE LOWER
60S.

WHILE THE LONGWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES SLOWLY OFF INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AMPLIFIES INTO AN UPPER TROUGH WHICH
ADVANCES INTO THE EASTERN STATES ON THURSDAY AND LATER INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVES EAST OUT OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...BRINGING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN A SMALL
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT AS MARGINAL MOISTURE...ALONG WITH FRONTAL FORCING LOOKS TO BE
SUFFICIENT ENOUGH. SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND. DESPITE THIS...A SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT
RAIN POSSIBLE BY LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS EASTWARD MOVING MID
LEVEL IMPULSES IN THE FLOW ALOFT OPERATE ON MARGINAL MOISTURE LEVELS.

TEMPERATURES WARM TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...THEN WILL BE NEAR OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE OUTLOOK. /10

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z ISSUANCE.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON WITH FREQUENT GUSTS
AROUND 25 KT. WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHWEST BY LATE TONIGHT (ROUGHLY
AROUND 06Z) AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. WHILE GUSTS WILL
NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG TONIGHT...IT WILL STILL BE BREEZY THROUGH MUCH
OF THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. FREQUENT GUSTS AROUND 25 KT
ARE LIKELY TO REDEVELOP BY 14-15Z MONDAY. SCATTERED CLOUDS WITH BASES
AROUND 2500 FT CAN BE EXPECTED FROM PRIOR TO SUNRISE THROUGH MID
MONDAY MORNING. AN OCCASIONALLY BROKEN MVFR CIG IS POSSIBLE DURING
THIS TIME. 34/JFB

&&

.MARINE...STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT AHEAD OF AND IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE COASTAL
WATERS AND OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE OPEN
GULF WATERS TONIGHT. SEAS BUILD TO 5-7 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND 7-9 FT
FROM 20-60NM. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL REMAIN NEAR 20 KT OVER
THE GULF WATERS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AND WE HAVE EXTENDED THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6PM MONDAY FOR THOSE AREAS.

A LIGHT TO MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW PREVAIL MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND GRADUALLY VEER THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS A SFC RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD. A BRIEF PERIOD OF ONSHORE
WINDS EXPECTED THURSDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT...WITH MODERATE
TO STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS REDEVELOPING ON FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF THAT
FRONTAL PASSAGE. 34/JFB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      40  56  39  64  37 /  05  00  00  00  00
PENSACOLA   42  57  41  64  41 /  05  00  00  00  00
DESTIN      45  56  43  64  43 /  05  00  00  00  00
EVERGREEN   39  53  35  63  34 /  10  00  00  00  00
WAYNESBORO  39  54  36  65  34 /  10  00  00  00  00
CAMDEN      39  51  34  63  34 /  10  00  00  00  00
CRESTVIEW   41  55  36  66  36 /  05  00  00  00  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...NORTHERN MOBILE
     BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...PERDIDO BAY...SOUTHERN MOBILE
     BAY...

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20
     NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMOB 251800 AAC
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1200 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z ISSUANCE.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON WITH FREQUENT GUSTS
AROUND 25 KT. WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHWEST BY LATE TONIGHT (ROUGHLY
AROUND 06Z) AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. WHILE GUSTS WILL
NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG TONIGHT...IT WILL STILL BE BREEZY THROUGH MUCH
OF THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. FREQUENT GUSTS AROUND 25 KT
ARE LIKELY TO REDEVELOP BY 14-15Z MONDAY. SCATTERED CLOUDS WITH BASES
AROUND 2500 FT CAN BE EXPECTED FROM PRIOR TO SUNRISE THROUGH MID
MONDAY MORNING. AN OCCASIONALLY BROKEN MVFR CIG IS POSSIBLE DURING
THIS TIME. 34/JFB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 952 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/

UPDATE...FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO INCLUDE HIGHER WINDS/WIND
GUSTS AWAY FROM THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE OVER
THE MIDSOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW
LAYER WIND FIELDS WILL INCREASE IN RESPONSE WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS
OVER THE AREA SHOWING 25-30 KT OF WIND AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER
BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL CORRESPOND TO FREQUENT GUSTS OF
25-30 MPH OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH OCCASIONALLY HIGHER GUSTS
POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE
THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR. THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME. 34/JFB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 743 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/

UPDATE...A LARGE SWELL PROPAGATING FROM WELL OFFSHORE COMBINED WITH
A STRONG WESTERLY WIND FLOW DEVELOPING LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL
RESULT IN A HIGH RISK FOR DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE GULF
BEACHES OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.
32/EE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 458 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT...BROAD UPPER TROF OVER MUCH OF MS RIVER VALLEY AND EASTERN
CONUS WILL SHIFT EAST AND DIG OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AND NORTHERN GULF
THROUGH TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY A REINFORCING SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING SOUTHEAST OVER THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY AND NORTHERN
GULF THROUGH MIDWEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL BRING A MODERATE TO STRONG
WESTERLY FLOW TO THE REGION LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH WINDS
POSSIBLY GUSTING TO 25 TO 30 KNOTS OVER LOWER SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT WILL MONITOR
CLOSELY FOR A POSSIBLE WIND ADVISORY IN THESE AREAS LATER TODAY AND
EARLY TONIGHT. SKIES WILL START OUT MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY WITH
INCREASING MID TO HIGH CLOUDS FOR MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
TONIGHT...THEN CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS ON MON. AS FOR TEMPS WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE WARMER
MAV GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY DUE TO GOOD SOLAR INSOLATION FOR MOST
AREAS EARLY IN THE DAY. HIGHS WILL CLIMB TO THE MIDDLE 60S FOR MOST
INLAND AREAS AND THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST. FOR
TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARDS THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE FOR
LOWS TONIGHT DUE TO CLOUDS AND CONTINUE MIXING. 32/EE

FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...A LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE EASTERN
STATES MOVES SLOWLY OFF INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WHILE A SURFACE
LOW OVER THE EAST CENTRAL STATES DEEPENING WHILE MOVING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST WITH A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT.  A DRY DEEP LAYER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES OVER
THE AREA WITH A DRY FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.  HIGHS ON MONDAY
WILL BE PRIMARILY IN THE MID 50S WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S.  LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
MID/UPPER 30S INLAND TO NEAR 40 CLOSE TO THE COAST AND LOWS TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL BE SIMILAR. /29

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...WHILE THE LONGWAVE TROF
CONTINUES SLOWLY OFF INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...A STRONG SHORTWAVE
AMPLIFIES INTO AN UPPER TROF WHICH ADVANCES INTO THE EASTERN STATES
ON THURSDAY AND LATER INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.  AN ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW ADVANCES FROM THE PLAINS AND ACROSS THE INTERIOR EASTERN
STATES...MEANWHILE BRINGING A COLD FRONT  THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT.  HAVE CONTINUED WITH A DRY FORECAST THROUGH
SATURDAY...EXCEPT HAVE INCLUDED SMALL POPS OVER THE EASTERN PORTION
OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AS MARGINALLY
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE PRESENT.  A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THROUGH SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WARM TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT THEN WILL BE NEAR OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. /29

AVIATION...
25.12Z ISSUANCE...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 26.12Z. EXPECT A FEW MID TO HIGH CLOUDS
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST LATER TODAY AND OVERNIGHT THEN CLEARING FROM
WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY MON MORNING. WINDS WILL BE WEST
AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS EARLY TODAY INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING THEN GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MON MORNING. 32/EE

MARINE...A STRONG WESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MARINE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
IS REINFORCED FROM THE NORTHWEST. AS A RESULT A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE MARINE AREA STARTING AT 3 PM
CST THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUING THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY. SEAS WILL BUILD
TO 8 TO 10 FEET WELL OFFSHORE WINDS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MON
MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH LATE MONDAY THROUGH
MIDWEEK AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND NORTH CENTRAL GULF. A LIGHT ONSHORE
FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST
TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD AND WESTERN ATLANTIC. 32/EE

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM SUNDAY TO NOON MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM...MISSISSIPPI
     SOUND...NORTHERN MOBILE BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...
     PERDIDO BAY...SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO
     PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO
     PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMOB 251800 AAC
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1200 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z ISSUANCE.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON WITH FREQUENT GUSTS
AROUND 25 KT. WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHWEST BY LATE TONIGHT (ROUGHLY
AROUND 06Z) AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. WHILE GUSTS WILL
NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG TONIGHT...IT WILL STILL BE BREEZY THROUGH MUCH
OF THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. FREQUENT GUSTS AROUND 25 KT
ARE LIKELY TO REDEVELOP BY 14-15Z MONDAY. SCATTERED CLOUDS WITH BASES
AROUND 2500 FT CAN BE EXPECTED FROM PRIOR TO SUNRISE THROUGH MID
MONDAY MORNING. AN OCCASIONALLY BROKEN MVFR CIG IS POSSIBLE DURING
THIS TIME. 34/JFB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 952 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/

UPDATE...FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO INCLUDE HIGHER WINDS/WIND
GUSTS AWAY FROM THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE OVER
THE MIDSOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW
LAYER WIND FIELDS WILL INCREASE IN RESPONSE WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS
OVER THE AREA SHOWING 25-30 KT OF WIND AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER
BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL CORRESPOND TO FREQUENT GUSTS OF
25-30 MPH OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH OCCASIONALLY HIGHER GUSTS
POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE
THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR. THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME. 34/JFB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 743 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/

UPDATE...A LARGE SWELL PROPAGATING FROM WELL OFFSHORE COMBINED WITH
A STRONG WESTERLY WIND FLOW DEVELOPING LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL
RESULT IN A HIGH RISK FOR DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE GULF
BEACHES OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.
32/EE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 458 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT...BROAD UPPER TROF OVER MUCH OF MS RIVER VALLEY AND EASTERN
CONUS WILL SHIFT EAST AND DIG OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AND NORTHERN GULF
THROUGH TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY A REINFORCING SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING SOUTHEAST OVER THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY AND NORTHERN
GULF THROUGH MIDWEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL BRING A MODERATE TO STRONG
WESTERLY FLOW TO THE REGION LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH WINDS
POSSIBLY GUSTING TO 25 TO 30 KNOTS OVER LOWER SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT WILL MONITOR
CLOSELY FOR A POSSIBLE WIND ADVISORY IN THESE AREAS LATER TODAY AND
EARLY TONIGHT. SKIES WILL START OUT MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY WITH
INCREASING MID TO HIGH CLOUDS FOR MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
TONIGHT...THEN CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS ON MON. AS FOR TEMPS WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE WARMER
MAV GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY DUE TO GOOD SOLAR INSOLATION FOR MOST
AREAS EARLY IN THE DAY. HIGHS WILL CLIMB TO THE MIDDLE 60S FOR MOST
INLAND AREAS AND THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST. FOR
TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARDS THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE FOR
LOWS TONIGHT DUE TO CLOUDS AND CONTINUE MIXING. 32/EE

FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...A LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE EASTERN
STATES MOVES SLOWLY OFF INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WHILE A SURFACE
LOW OVER THE EAST CENTRAL STATES DEEPENING WHILE MOVING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST WITH A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT.  A DRY DEEP LAYER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES OVER
THE AREA WITH A DRY FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.  HIGHS ON MONDAY
WILL BE PRIMARILY IN THE MID 50S WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S.  LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
MID/UPPER 30S INLAND TO NEAR 40 CLOSE TO THE COAST AND LOWS TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL BE SIMILAR. /29

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...WHILE THE LONGWAVE TROF
CONTINUES SLOWLY OFF INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...A STRONG SHORTWAVE
AMPLIFIES INTO AN UPPER TROF WHICH ADVANCES INTO THE EASTERN STATES
ON THURSDAY AND LATER INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.  AN ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW ADVANCES FROM THE PLAINS AND ACROSS THE INTERIOR EASTERN
STATES...MEANWHILE BRINGING A COLD FRONT  THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT.  HAVE CONTINUED WITH A DRY FORECAST THROUGH
SATURDAY...EXCEPT HAVE INCLUDED SMALL POPS OVER THE EASTERN PORTION
OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AS MARGINALLY
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE PRESENT.  A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THROUGH SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WARM TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT THEN WILL BE NEAR OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. /29

AVIATION...
25.12Z ISSUANCE...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 26.12Z. EXPECT A FEW MID TO HIGH CLOUDS
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST LATER TODAY AND OVERNIGHT THEN CLEARING FROM
WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY MON MORNING. WINDS WILL BE WEST
AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS EARLY TODAY INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING THEN GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MON MORNING. 32/EE

MARINE...A STRONG WESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MARINE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
IS REINFORCED FROM THE NORTHWEST. AS A RESULT A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE MARINE AREA STARTING AT 3 PM
CST THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUING THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY. SEAS WILL BUILD
TO 8 TO 10 FEET WELL OFFSHORE WINDS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MON
MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH LATE MONDAY THROUGH
MIDWEEK AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND NORTH CENTRAL GULF. A LIGHT ONSHORE
FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST
TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD AND WESTERN ATLANTIC. 32/EE

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM SUNDAY TO NOON MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM...MISSISSIPPI
     SOUND...NORTHERN MOBILE BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...
     PERDIDO BAY...SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO
     PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO
     PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...

&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KMOB 251552 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
952 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.UPDATE...FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO INCLUDE HIGHER WINDS/WIND
GUSTS AWAY FROM THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE OVER
THE MIDSOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW
LAYER WIND FIELDS WILL INCREASE IN RESPONSE WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS
OVER THE AREA SHOWING 25-30 KT OF WIND AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER
BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL CORRESPOND TO FREQUENT GUSTS OF
25-30 MPH OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH OCCASIONALLY HIGHER GUSTS
POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE
THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR. THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME. 34/JFB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 743 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/

UPDATE...A LARGE SWELL PROPAGATING FROM WELL OFFSHORE COMBINED WITH
A STRONG WESTERLY WIND FLOW DEVELOPING LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL
RESULT IN A HIGH RISK FOR DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE GULF
BEACHES OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.
32/EE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 458 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT...BROAD UPPER TROF OVER MUCH OF MS RIVER VALLEY AND EASTERN
CONUS WILL SHIFT EAST AND DIG OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AND NORTHERN GULF
THROUGH TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY A REINFORCING SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING SOUTHEAST OVER THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY AND NORTHERN
GULF THROUGH MIDWEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL BRING A MODERATE TO STRONG
WESTERLY FLOW TO THE REGION LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH WINDS
POSSIBLY GUSTING TO 25 TO 30 KNOTS OVER LOWER SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT WILL MONITOR
CLOSELY FOR A POSSIBLE WIND ADVISORY IN THESE AREAS LATER TODAY AND
EARLY TONIGHT. SKIES WILL START OUT MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY WITH
INCREASING MID TO HIGH CLOUDS FOR MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
TONIGHT...THEN CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS ON MON. AS FOR TEMPS WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE WARMER
MAV GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY DUE TO GOOD SOLAR INSOLATION FOR MOST
AREAS EARLY IN THE DAY. HIGHS WILL CLIMB TO THE MIDDLE 60S FOR MOST
INLAND AREAS AND THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST. FOR
TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARDS THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE FOR
LOWS TONIGHT DUE TO CLOUDS AND CONTINUE MIXING. 32/EE

FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...A LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE EASTERN
STATES MOVES SLOWLY OFF INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WHILE A SURFACE
LOW OVER THE EAST CENTRAL STATES DEEPENING WHILE MOVING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST WITH A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT.  A DRY DEEP LAYER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES OVER
THE AREA WITH A DRY FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.  HIGHS ON MONDAY
WILL BE PRIMARILY IN THE MID 50S WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S.  LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
MID/UPPER 30S INLAND TO NEAR 40 CLOSE TO THE COAST AND LOWS TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL BE SIMILAR. /29

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...WHILE THE LONGWAVE TROF
CONTINUES SLOWLY OFF INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...A STRONG SHORTWAVE
AMPLIFIES INTO AN UPPER TROF WHICH ADVANCES INTO THE EASTERN STATES
ON THURSDAY AND LATER INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.  AN ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW ADVANCES FROM THE PLAINS AND ACROSS THE INTERIOR EASTERN
STATES...MEANWHILE BRINGING A COLD FRONT  THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT.  HAVE CONTINUED WITH A DRY FORECAST THROUGH
SATURDAY...EXCEPT HAVE INCLUDED SMALL POPS OVER THE EASTERN PORTION
OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AS MARGINALLY
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE PRESENT.  A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THROUGH SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WARM TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT THEN WILL BE NEAR OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. /29

AVIATION...
25.12Z ISSUANCE...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 26.12Z. EXPECT A FEW MID TO HIGH CLOUDS
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST LATER TODAY AND OVERNIGHT THEN CLEARING FROM
WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY MON MORNING. WINDS WILL BE WEST
AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS EARLY TODAY INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING THEN GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MON MORNING. 32/EE

MARINE...A STRONG WESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MARINE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
IS REINFORCED FROM THE NORTHWEST. AS A RESULT A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE MARINE AREA STARTING AT 3 PM
CST THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUING THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY. SEAS WILL BUILD
TO 8 TO 10 FEET WELL OFFSHORE WINDS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MON
MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH LATE MONDAY THROUGH
MIDWEEK AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND NORTH CENTRAL GULF. A LIGHT ONSHORE
FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST
TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD AND WESTERN ATLANTIC. 32/EE

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM SUNDAY TO NOON MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM...MISSISSIPPI
     SOUND...NORTHERN MOBILE BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...
     PERDIDO BAY...SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO
     PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO
     PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMOB 251552 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
952 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.UPDATE...FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO INCLUDE HIGHER WINDS/WIND
GUSTS AWAY FROM THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE OVER
THE MIDSOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW
LAYER WIND FIELDS WILL INCREASE IN RESPONSE WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS
OVER THE AREA SHOWING 25-30 KT OF WIND AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER
BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL CORRESPOND TO FREQUENT GUSTS OF
25-30 MPH OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH OCCASIONALLY HIGHER GUSTS
POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE
THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR. THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME. 34/JFB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 743 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/

UPDATE...A LARGE SWELL PROPAGATING FROM WELL OFFSHORE COMBINED WITH
A STRONG WESTERLY WIND FLOW DEVELOPING LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL
RESULT IN A HIGH RISK FOR DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE GULF
BEACHES OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.
32/EE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 458 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT...BROAD UPPER TROF OVER MUCH OF MS RIVER VALLEY AND EASTERN
CONUS WILL SHIFT EAST AND DIG OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AND NORTHERN GULF
THROUGH TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY A REINFORCING SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING SOUTHEAST OVER THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY AND NORTHERN
GULF THROUGH MIDWEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL BRING A MODERATE TO STRONG
WESTERLY FLOW TO THE REGION LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH WINDS
POSSIBLY GUSTING TO 25 TO 30 KNOTS OVER LOWER SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT WILL MONITOR
CLOSELY FOR A POSSIBLE WIND ADVISORY IN THESE AREAS LATER TODAY AND
EARLY TONIGHT. SKIES WILL START OUT MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY WITH
INCREASING MID TO HIGH CLOUDS FOR MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
TONIGHT...THEN CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS ON MON. AS FOR TEMPS WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE WARMER
MAV GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY DUE TO GOOD SOLAR INSOLATION FOR MOST
AREAS EARLY IN THE DAY. HIGHS WILL CLIMB TO THE MIDDLE 60S FOR MOST
INLAND AREAS AND THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST. FOR
TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARDS THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE FOR
LOWS TONIGHT DUE TO CLOUDS AND CONTINUE MIXING. 32/EE

FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...A LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE EASTERN
STATES MOVES SLOWLY OFF INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WHILE A SURFACE
LOW OVER THE EAST CENTRAL STATES DEEPENING WHILE MOVING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST WITH A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT.  A DRY DEEP LAYER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES OVER
THE AREA WITH A DRY FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.  HIGHS ON MONDAY
WILL BE PRIMARILY IN THE MID 50S WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S.  LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
MID/UPPER 30S INLAND TO NEAR 40 CLOSE TO THE COAST AND LOWS TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL BE SIMILAR. /29

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...WHILE THE LONGWAVE TROF
CONTINUES SLOWLY OFF INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...A STRONG SHORTWAVE
AMPLIFIES INTO AN UPPER TROF WHICH ADVANCES INTO THE EASTERN STATES
ON THURSDAY AND LATER INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.  AN ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW ADVANCES FROM THE PLAINS AND ACROSS THE INTERIOR EASTERN
STATES...MEANWHILE BRINGING A COLD FRONT  THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT.  HAVE CONTINUED WITH A DRY FORECAST THROUGH
SATURDAY...EXCEPT HAVE INCLUDED SMALL POPS OVER THE EASTERN PORTION
OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AS MARGINALLY
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE PRESENT.  A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THROUGH SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WARM TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT THEN WILL BE NEAR OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. /29

AVIATION...
25.12Z ISSUANCE...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 26.12Z. EXPECT A FEW MID TO HIGH CLOUDS
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST LATER TODAY AND OVERNIGHT THEN CLEARING FROM
WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY MON MORNING. WINDS WILL BE WEST
AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS EARLY TODAY INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING THEN GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MON MORNING. 32/EE

MARINE...A STRONG WESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MARINE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
IS REINFORCED FROM THE NORTHWEST. AS A RESULT A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE MARINE AREA STARTING AT 3 PM
CST THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUING THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY. SEAS WILL BUILD
TO 8 TO 10 FEET WELL OFFSHORE WINDS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MON
MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH LATE MONDAY THROUGH
MIDWEEK AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND NORTH CENTRAL GULF. A LIGHT ONSHORE
FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST
TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD AND WESTERN ATLANTIC. 32/EE

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM SUNDAY TO NOON MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM...MISSISSIPPI
     SOUND...NORTHERN MOBILE BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...
     PERDIDO BAY...SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO
     PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO
     PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...

&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KMOB 251343 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
743 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.UPDATE...A LARGE SWELL PROPAGATING FROM WELL OFFSHORE COMBINED WITH
A STRONG WESTERLY WIND FLOW DEVELOPING LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL
RESULT IN A HIGH RISK FOR DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE GULF
BEACHES OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.
32/EE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 458 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT...BROAD UPPER TROF OVER MUCH OF MS RIVER VALLEY AND EASTERN
CONUS WILL SHIFT EAST AND DIG OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AND NORTHERN GULF
THROUGH TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY A REINFORCING SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING SOUTHEAST OVER THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY AND NORTHERN
GULF THROUGH MIDWEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL BRING A MODERATE TO STRONG
WESTERLY FLOW TO THE REGION LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH WINDS
POSSIBLY GUSTING TO 25 TO 30 KNOTS OVER LOWER SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT WILL MONITOR
CLOSELY FOR A POSSIBLE WIND ADVISORY IN THESE AREAS LATER TODAY AND
EARLY TONIGHT. SKIES WILL START OUT MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY WITH
INCREASING MID TO HIGH CLOUDS FOR MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
TONIGHT...THEN CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS ON MON. AS FOR TEMPS WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE WARMER
MAV GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY DUE TO GOOD SOLAR INSOLATION FOR MOST
AREAS EARLY IN THE DAY. HIGHS WILL CLIMB TO THE MIDDLE 60S FOR MOST
INLAND AREAS AND THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST. FOR
TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARDS THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE FOR
LOWS TONIGHT DUE TO CLOUDS AND CONTINUE MIXING. 32/EE

FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...A LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE EASTERN
STATES MOVES SLOWLY OFF INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WHILE A SURFACE
LOW OVER THE EAST CENTRAL STATES DEEPENING WHILE MOVING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST WITH A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT.  A DRY DEEP LAYER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES OVER
THE AREA WITH A DRY FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.  HIGHS ON MONDAY
WILL BE PRIMARILY IN THE MID 50S WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S.  LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
MID/UPPER 30S INLAND TO NEAR 40 CLOSE TO THE COAST AND LOWS TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL BE SIMILAR. /29

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...WHILE THE LONGWAVE TROF
CONTINUES SLOWLY OFF INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...A STRONG SHORTWAVE
AMPLIFIES INTO AN UPPER TROF WHICH ADVANCES INTO THE EASTERN STATES
ON THURSDAY AND LATER INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.  AN ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW ADVANCES FROM THE PLAINS AND ACROSS THE INTERIOR EASTERN
STATES...MEANWHILE BRINGING A COLD FRONT  THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT.  HAVE CONTINUED WITH A DRY FORECAST THROUGH
SATURDAY...EXCEPT HAVE INCLUDED SMALL POPS OVER THE EASTERN PORTION
OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AS MARGINALLY
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE PRESENT.  A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THROUGH SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WARM TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT THEN WILL BE NEAR OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. /29

AVIATION...
25.12Z ISSUANCE...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 26.12Z. EXPECT A FEW MID TO HIGH CLOUDS
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST LATER TODAY AND OVERNIGHT THEN CLEARING FROM
WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY MON MORNING. WINDS WILL BE WEST
AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS EARLY TODAY INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING THEN GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MON MORNING. 32/EE

MARINE...A STRONG WESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MARINE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
IS REINFORCED FROM THE NORTHWEST. AS A RESULT A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE MARINE AREA STARTING AT 3 PM
CST THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUING THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY. SEAS WILL BUILD
TO 8 TO 10 FEET WELL OFFSHORE WINDS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MON
MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH LATE MONDAY THROUGH
MIDWEEK AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND NORTH CENTRAL GULF. A LIGHT ONSHORE
FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST
TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD AND WESTERN ATLANTIC. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      63  40  57  39  64 /  05  05  00  00  00
PENSACOLA   63  44  58  40  64 /  00  05  05  00  00
DESTIN      62  46  58  43  64 /  00  05  05  00  00
EVERGREEN   63  39  55  35  63 /  05  10  05  00  00
WAYNESBORO  63  38  55  36  65 /  05  00  05  00  00
CAMDEN      63  39  53  34  63 /  05  10  05  00  00
CRESTVIEW   66  40  57  36  65 /  05  05  05  00  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM SUNDAY TO NOON MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM...MISSISSIPPI
     SOUND...NORTHERN MOBILE BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...
     PERDIDO BAY...SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO
     PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO
     PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...

&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KMOB 251343 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
743 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.UPDATE...A LARGE SWELL PROPAGATING FROM WELL OFFSHORE COMBINED WITH
A STRONG WESTERLY WIND FLOW DEVELOPING LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL
RESULT IN A HIGH RISK FOR DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE GULF
BEACHES OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.
32/EE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 458 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT...BROAD UPPER TROF OVER MUCH OF MS RIVER VALLEY AND EASTERN
CONUS WILL SHIFT EAST AND DIG OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AND NORTHERN GULF
THROUGH TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY A REINFORCING SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING SOUTHEAST OVER THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY AND NORTHERN
GULF THROUGH MIDWEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL BRING A MODERATE TO STRONG
WESTERLY FLOW TO THE REGION LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH WINDS
POSSIBLY GUSTING TO 25 TO 30 KNOTS OVER LOWER SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT WILL MONITOR
CLOSELY FOR A POSSIBLE WIND ADVISORY IN THESE AREAS LATER TODAY AND
EARLY TONIGHT. SKIES WILL START OUT MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY WITH
INCREASING MID TO HIGH CLOUDS FOR MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
TONIGHT...THEN CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS ON MON. AS FOR TEMPS WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE WARMER
MAV GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY DUE TO GOOD SOLAR INSOLATION FOR MOST
AREAS EARLY IN THE DAY. HIGHS WILL CLIMB TO THE MIDDLE 60S FOR MOST
INLAND AREAS AND THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST. FOR
TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARDS THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE FOR
LOWS TONIGHT DUE TO CLOUDS AND CONTINUE MIXING. 32/EE

FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...A LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE EASTERN
STATES MOVES SLOWLY OFF INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WHILE A SURFACE
LOW OVER THE EAST CENTRAL STATES DEEPENING WHILE MOVING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST WITH A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT.  A DRY DEEP LAYER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES OVER
THE AREA WITH A DRY FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.  HIGHS ON MONDAY
WILL BE PRIMARILY IN THE MID 50S WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S.  LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
MID/UPPER 30S INLAND TO NEAR 40 CLOSE TO THE COAST AND LOWS TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL BE SIMILAR. /29

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...WHILE THE LONGWAVE TROF
CONTINUES SLOWLY OFF INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...A STRONG SHORTWAVE
AMPLIFIES INTO AN UPPER TROF WHICH ADVANCES INTO THE EASTERN STATES
ON THURSDAY AND LATER INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.  AN ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW ADVANCES FROM THE PLAINS AND ACROSS THE INTERIOR EASTERN
STATES...MEANWHILE BRINGING A COLD FRONT  THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT.  HAVE CONTINUED WITH A DRY FORECAST THROUGH
SATURDAY...EXCEPT HAVE INCLUDED SMALL POPS OVER THE EASTERN PORTION
OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AS MARGINALLY
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE PRESENT.  A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THROUGH SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WARM TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT THEN WILL BE NEAR OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. /29

AVIATION...
25.12Z ISSUANCE...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 26.12Z. EXPECT A FEW MID TO HIGH CLOUDS
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST LATER TODAY AND OVERNIGHT THEN CLEARING FROM
WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY MON MORNING. WINDS WILL BE WEST
AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS EARLY TODAY INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING THEN GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MON MORNING. 32/EE

MARINE...A STRONG WESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MARINE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
IS REINFORCED FROM THE NORTHWEST. AS A RESULT A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE MARINE AREA STARTING AT 3 PM
CST THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUING THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY. SEAS WILL BUILD
TO 8 TO 10 FEET WELL OFFSHORE WINDS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MON
MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH LATE MONDAY THROUGH
MIDWEEK AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND NORTH CENTRAL GULF. A LIGHT ONSHORE
FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST
TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD AND WESTERN ATLANTIC. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      63  40  57  39  64 /  05  05  00  00  00
PENSACOLA   63  44  58  40  64 /  00  05  05  00  00
DESTIN      62  46  58  43  64 /  00  05  05  00  00
EVERGREEN   63  39  55  35  63 /  05  10  05  00  00
WAYNESBORO  63  38  55  36  65 /  05  00  05  00  00
CAMDEN      63  39  53  34  63 /  05  10  05  00  00
CRESTVIEW   66  40  57  36  65 /  05  05  05  00  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM SUNDAY TO NOON MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM...MISSISSIPPI
     SOUND...NORTHERN MOBILE BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...
     PERDIDO BAY...SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO
     PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO
     PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMOB 251058
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
458 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT...BROAD UPPER TROF OVER MUCH OF MS RIVER VALLEY AND EASTERN
CONUS WILL SHIFT EAST AND DIG OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AND NORTHERN GULF
THROUGH TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY A REINFORCING SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING SOUTHEAST OVER THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY AND NORTHERN
GULF THROUGH MIDWEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL BRING A MODERATE TO STRONG
WESTERLY FLOW TO THE REGION LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH WINDS
POSSIBLY GUSTING TO 25 TO 30 KNOTS OVER LOWER SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT WILL MONITOR
CLOSELY FOR A POSSIBLE WIND ADVISORY IN THESE AREAS LATER TODAY AND
EARLY TONIGHT. SKIES WILL START OUT MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY WITH
INCREASING MID TO HIGH CLOUDS FOR MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
TONIGHT...THEN CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS ON MON. AS FOR TEMPS WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE WARMER
MAV GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY DUE TO GOOD SOLAR INSOLATION FOR MOST
AREAS EARLY IN THE DAY. HIGHS WILL CLIMB TO THE MIDDLE 60S FOR MOST
INLAND AREAS AND THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST. FOR
TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARDS THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE FOR
LOWS TONIGHT DUE TO CLOUDS AND CONTINUE MIXING. 32/EE

FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...A LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE EASTERN
STATES MOVES SLOWLY OFF INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WHILE A SURFACE
LOW OVER THE EAST CENTRAL STATES DEEPENING WHILE MOVING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST WITH A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT.  A DRY DEEP LAYER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES OVER
THE AREA WITH A DRY FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.  HIGHS ON MONDAY
WILL BE PRIMARILY IN THE MID 50S WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S.  LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
MID/UPPER 30S INLAND TO NEAR 40 CLOSE TO THE COAST AND LOWS TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL BE SIMILAR. /29

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...WHILE THE LONGWAVE TROF
CONTINUES SLOWLY OFF INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...A STRONG SHORTWAVE
AMPLIFIES INTO AN UPPER TROF WHICH ADVANCES INTO THE EASTERN STATES
ON THURSDAY AND LATER INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.  AN ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW ADVANCES FROM THE PLAINS AND ACROSS THE INTERIOR EASTERN
STATES...MEANWHILE BRINGING A COLD FRONT  THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT.  HAVE CONTINUED WITH A DRY FORECAST THROUGH
SATURDAY...EXCEPT HAVE INCLUDED SMALL POPS OVER THE EASTERN PORTION
OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AS MARGINALLY
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE PRESENT.  A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THROUGH SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WARM TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT THEN WILL BE NEAR OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. /29

&&

.AVIATION...
25.12Z ISSUANCE...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 26.12Z. EXPECT A FEW MID TO HIGH CLOUDS
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST LATER TODAY AND OVERNIGHT THEN CLEARING FROM
WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY MON MORNING. WINDS WILL BE WEST
AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS EARLY TODAY INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING THEN GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MON MORNING. 32/EE

&&

.MARINE...A STRONG WESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MARINE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
IS REINFORCED FROM THE NORTHWEST. AS A RESULT A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE MARINE AREA STARTING AT 3 PM
CST THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUING THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY. SEAS WILL BUILD
TO 8 TO 10 FEET WELL OFFSHORE WINDS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MON
MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH LATE MONDAY THROUGH
MIDWEEK AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND NORTH CENTRAL GULF. A LIGHT ONSHORE
FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST
TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD AND WESTERN ATLANTIC. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      63  40  57  39  64 /  05  05  00  00  00
PENSACOLA   63  44  58  40  64 /  00  05  05  00  00
DESTIN      62  46  58  43  64 /  00  05  05  00  00
EVERGREEN   63  39  55  35  63 /  05  10  05  00  00
WAYNESBORO  63  38  55  36  65 /  05  00  05  00  00
CAMDEN      63  39  53  34  63 /  05  10  05  00  00
CRESTVIEW   66  40  57  36  65 /  05  05  05  00  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM SUNDAY TO NOON MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM...MISSISSIPPI
     SOUND...NORTHERN MOBILE BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...
     PERDIDO BAY...SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO
     PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO
     PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMOB 251058
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
458 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT...BROAD UPPER TROF OVER MUCH OF MS RIVER VALLEY AND EASTERN
CONUS WILL SHIFT EAST AND DIG OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AND NORTHERN GULF
THROUGH TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY A REINFORCING SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING SOUTHEAST OVER THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY AND NORTHERN
GULF THROUGH MIDWEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL BRING A MODERATE TO STRONG
WESTERLY FLOW TO THE REGION LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH WINDS
POSSIBLY GUSTING TO 25 TO 30 KNOTS OVER LOWER SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT WILL MONITOR
CLOSELY FOR A POSSIBLE WIND ADVISORY IN THESE AREAS LATER TODAY AND
EARLY TONIGHT. SKIES WILL START OUT MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY WITH
INCREASING MID TO HIGH CLOUDS FOR MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
TONIGHT...THEN CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS ON MON. AS FOR TEMPS WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE WARMER
MAV GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY DUE TO GOOD SOLAR INSOLATION FOR MOST
AREAS EARLY IN THE DAY. HIGHS WILL CLIMB TO THE MIDDLE 60S FOR MOST
INLAND AREAS AND THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST. FOR
TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARDS THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE FOR
LOWS TONIGHT DUE TO CLOUDS AND CONTINUE MIXING. 32/EE

FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...A LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE EASTERN
STATES MOVES SLOWLY OFF INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WHILE A SURFACE
LOW OVER THE EAST CENTRAL STATES DEEPENING WHILE MOVING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST WITH A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT.  A DRY DEEP LAYER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES OVER
THE AREA WITH A DRY FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.  HIGHS ON MONDAY
WILL BE PRIMARILY IN THE MID 50S WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S.  LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
MID/UPPER 30S INLAND TO NEAR 40 CLOSE TO THE COAST AND LOWS TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL BE SIMILAR. /29

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...WHILE THE LONGWAVE TROF
CONTINUES SLOWLY OFF INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...A STRONG SHORTWAVE
AMPLIFIES INTO AN UPPER TROF WHICH ADVANCES INTO THE EASTERN STATES
ON THURSDAY AND LATER INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.  AN ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW ADVANCES FROM THE PLAINS AND ACROSS THE INTERIOR EASTERN
STATES...MEANWHILE BRINGING A COLD FRONT  THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT.  HAVE CONTINUED WITH A DRY FORECAST THROUGH
SATURDAY...EXCEPT HAVE INCLUDED SMALL POPS OVER THE EASTERN PORTION
OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AS MARGINALLY
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE PRESENT.  A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THROUGH SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WARM TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT THEN WILL BE NEAR OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. /29

&&

.AVIATION...
25.12Z ISSUANCE...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 26.12Z. EXPECT A FEW MID TO HIGH CLOUDS
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST LATER TODAY AND OVERNIGHT THEN CLEARING FROM
WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY MON MORNING. WINDS WILL BE WEST
AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS EARLY TODAY INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING THEN GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MON MORNING. 32/EE

&&

.MARINE...A STRONG WESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MARINE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
IS REINFORCED FROM THE NORTHWEST. AS A RESULT A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE MARINE AREA STARTING AT 3 PM
CST THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUING THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY. SEAS WILL BUILD
TO 8 TO 10 FEET WELL OFFSHORE WINDS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MON
MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH LATE MONDAY THROUGH
MIDWEEK AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND NORTH CENTRAL GULF. A LIGHT ONSHORE
FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST
TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD AND WESTERN ATLANTIC. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      63  40  57  39  64 /  05  05  00  00  00
PENSACOLA   63  44  58  40  64 /  00  05  05  00  00
DESTIN      62  46  58  43  64 /  00  05  05  00  00
EVERGREEN   63  39  55  35  63 /  05  10  05  00  00
WAYNESBORO  63  38  55  36  65 /  05  00  05  00  00
CAMDEN      63  39  53  34  63 /  05  10  05  00  00
CRESTVIEW   66  40  57  36  65 /  05  05  05  00  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM SUNDAY TO NOON MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM...MISSISSIPPI
     SOUND...NORTHERN MOBILE BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...
     PERDIDO BAY...SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO
     PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO
     PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...

&&

$$







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