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000
FXUS64 KMOB 230455 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...AVIATION UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1150 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

AVIATION...
23/06Z TAF ISSUANCE...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. /13

&&

.UPDATE...THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO UPDATES ARE NEEDED. /13


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY]...LITTLE TO NO CHANGES TO PATTERN
FROM YESTERDAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AND SLIGHT RIDGING ALOFT
REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURES TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. UNDER
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPS TO CONTINUE WITH LOWER
40S EXPECTED OVER MOST OF THE INTERIOR ZONES...AND LOWER 50S NEAR
THE COAST. IN GENERAL...THESE MIN TEMPS WILL BE RANGING FROM AROUND
8-12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. FOR THURSDAY
NEAR NORMAL MAX TEMPS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S INLAND
AND MIDDLE 70S COASTAL. LIGHT (TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE NEAR THE
COAST) NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. CLEAR
SKIES AND NO PCPN EXPECTED. 12/DS

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY UNDERNEATH DRY NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT. A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI...TENNESSEE...AND OHIO VALLEY REGION THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY WHICH WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW FLOW ACROSS OUR
AREA. RADIATIONAL COOLING COURTESY OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ALONG WITH
FAIRLY LOW DEWPOINTS SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANOTHER COOL MORNING WITH LOWS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S INLAND AND IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S NEAR
THE COAST. HIGHS FRIDAY SHOULD RANGE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. /21

LONG TERM [SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
PREVAIL SATURDAY ON THE EASTERN FRINGE OF A MID LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF CENTRAL TX. THIS RIDGE AXIS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO
SUNDAY...BECOMING FOCUSED OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND WESTERN ATLANTIC
BY MONDAY. A DEEP LAYER DRY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN INTACT OVER OUR
FORECAST AREA...KEEPING POPS PRETTY MUCH NIL THROUGH MONDAY. SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE TUESDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT MID LEVEL
TROUGH EXPECTED TO DEEPEN OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. THIS
TROUGH AXIS MAY LIFT EASTWARD TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE
VALLEY REGION BY WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.
ENOUGH MOISTURE AHEAD OF THESE APPROACHING FEATURES COULD BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS BACK INTO THE FORECAST BY WEDNESDAY...AND
FOR NOW HAVE KEPT POPS 20 PERCENT OR LESS. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD
TREND UPWARDS BACK TO ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS GULF
MOISTURE GRADUALLY INCREASES OVER THE REGION. HIGHS SHOULD GENERALLY
RANGE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. /21

MARINE...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE
MARINE AREA FROM THE NORTH INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. TO THE
SOUTH...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 9 IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT WEST ACROSS THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA THROUGH LATE WEEK AND INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THESE SYSTEMS WILL COMBINE TO BRING A LIGHT TO
MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND FLOW TO THE MARINE AREA THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WINDS COULD BE A LITTLE STRONGER THAN FORECAST IF THE LOW
INTENSIFIES A MORE THAN EXPECTED. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      49  75  48  77  49 /  00  00  00  00  00
PENSACOLA   52  76  52  77  53 /  00  00  00  00  00
DESTIN      60  74  54  76  56 /  00  00  00  00  00
EVERGREEN   41  73  43  76  44 /  00  00  00  00  00
WAYNESBORO  42  74  42  76  45 /  00  00  00  00  00
CAMDEN      41  73  42  76  45 /  00  00  00  00  00
CRESTVIEW   42  75  42  78  43 /  00  00  00  00  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$














000
FXUS64 KMOB 230350 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1050 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO UPDATES ARE NEEDED. /13


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY]...LITTLE TO NO CHANGES TO PATTERN
FROM YESTERDAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AND SLIGHT RIDGING ALOFT
REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURES TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. UNDER
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPS TO CONTINUE WITH LOWER
40S EXPECTED OVER MOST OF THE INTERIOR ZONES...AND LOWER 50S NEAR
THE COAST. IN GENERAL...THESE MIN TEMPS WILL BE RANGING FROM AROUND
8-12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. FOR THURSDAY
NEAR NORMAL MAX TEMPS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S INLAND
AND MIDDLE 70S COASTAL. LIGHT (TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE NEAR THE
COAST) NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. CLEAR
SKIES AND NO PCPN EXPECTED. 12/DS

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY UNDERNEATH DRY NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT. A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI...TENNESSEE...AND OHIO VALLEY REGION THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY WHICH WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW FLOW ACROSS OUR
AREA. RADIATIONAL COOLING COURTESY OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ALONG WITH
FAIRLY LOW DEWPOINTS SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANOTHER COOL MORNING WITH LOWS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S INLAND AND IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S NEAR
THE COAST. HIGHS FRIDAY SHOULD RANGE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. /21

LONG TERM [SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
PREVAIL SATURDAY ON THE EASTERN FRINGE OF A MID LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF CENTRAL TX. THIS RIDGE AXIS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO
SUNDAY...BECOMING FOCUSED OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND WESTERN ATLANTIC
BY MONDAY. A DEEP LAYER DRY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN INTACT OVER OUR
FORECAST AREA...KEEPING POPS PRETTY MUCH NIL THROUGH MONDAY. SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE TUESDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT MID LEVEL
TROUGH EXPECTED TO DEEPEN OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. THIS
TROUGH AXIS MAY LIFT EASTWARD TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE
VALLEY REGION BY WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.
ENOUGH MOISTURE AHEAD OF THESE APPROACHING FEATURES COULD BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS BACK INTO THE FORECAST BY WEDNESDAY...AND
FOR NOW HAVE KEPT POPS 20 PERCENT OR LESS. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD
TREND UPWARDS BACK TO ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS GULF
MOISTURE GRADUALLY INCREASES OVER THE REGION. HIGHS SHOULD GENERALLY
RANGE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. /21

AVIATION...
23/00Z TAF ISSUANCE...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 23/18Z. LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS
CONTINUE. 12/DS

MARINE...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE
MARINE AREA FROM THE NORTH INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. TO THE
SOUTH...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 9 IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT WEST ACROSS THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA THROUGH LATE WEEK AND INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THESE SYSTEMS WILL COMBINE TO BRING A LIGHT TO
MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND FLOW TO THE MARINE AREA THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WINDS COULD BE A LITTLE STRONGER THAN FORECAST IF THE LOW
INTENSIFIES A MORE THAN EXPECTED. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      49  75  48  77  49 /  00  00  00  00  00
PENSACOLA   52  76  52  77  53 /  00  00  00  00  00
DESTIN      60  74  54  76  56 /  00  00  00  00  00
EVERGREEN   41  73  43  76  44 /  00  00  00  00  00
WAYNESBORO  42  74  42  76  45 /  00  00  00  00  00
CAMDEN      41  73  42  76  45 /  00  00  00  00  00
CRESTVIEW   42  75  42  78  43 /  00  00  00  00  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$











000
FXUS64 KMOB 222059
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
359 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY]...LITTLE TO NO CHANGES TO PATTERN
FROM YESTERDAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AND SLIGHT RIDGING ALOFT
REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURES TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. UNDER
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPS TO CONTINUE WITH LOWER
40S EXPECTED OVER MOST OF THE INTERIOR ZONES...AND LOWER 50S NEAR
THE COAST. IN GENERAL...THESE MIN TEMPS WILL BE RANGING FROM AROUND
8-12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. FOR THURSDAY
NEAR NORMAL MAX TEMPS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S INLAND
AND MIDDLE 70S COASTAL. LIGHT (TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE NEAR THE
COAST) NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. CLEAR
SKIES AND NO PCPN EXPECTED. 12/DS

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY UNDERNEATH DRY NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT. A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI...TENNESSEE...AND OHIO VALLEY REGION THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY WHICH WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW FLOW ACROSS OUR
AREA. RADIATIONAL COOLING COURTESY OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ALONG WITH
FAIRLY LOW DEWPOINTS SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANOTHER COOL MORNING WITH LOWS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S INLAND AND IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S NEAR
THE COAST. HIGHS FRIDAY SHOULD RANGE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. /21

.LONG TERM [SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
PREVAIL SATURDAY ON THE EASTERN FRINGE OF A MID LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF CENTRAL TX. THIS RIDGE AXIS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO
SUNDAY...BECOMING FOCUSED OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND WESTERN ATLANTIC
BY MONDAY. A DEEP LAYER DRY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN INTACT OVER OUR
FORECAST AREA...KEEPING POPS PRETTY MUCH NIL THROUGH MONDAY. SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE TUESDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT MID LEVEL
TROUGH EXPECTED TO DEEPEN OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. THIS
TROUGH AXIS MAY LIFT EASTWARD TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE
VALLEY REGION BY WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.
ENOUGH MOISTURE AHEAD OF THESE APPROACHING FEATURES COULD BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS BACK INTO THE FORECAST BY WEDNESDAY...AND
FOR NOW HAVE KEPT POPS 20 PERCENT OR LESS. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD
TREND UPWARDS BACK TO ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS GULF
MOISTURE GRADUALLY INCREASES OVER THE REGION. HIGHS SHOULD GENERALLY
RANGE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. /21

&&

.AVIATION...
23/00Z TAF ISSUANCE...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 23/18Z. LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS
CONTINUE. 12/DS

&&

.MARINE...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE
MARINE AREA FROM THE NORTH INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. TO THE
SOUTH...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 9 IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT WEST ACROSS THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA THROUGH LATE WEEK AND INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THESE SYSTEMS WILL COMBINE TO BRING A LIGHT TO
MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND FLOW TO THE MARINE AREA THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WINDS COULD BE A LITTLE STRONGER THAN FORECAST IF THE LOW
INTENSIFIES A MORE THAN EXPECTED. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      49  75  48  77  49 /  00  00  00  00  00
PENSACOLA   52  76  52  77  53 /  00  00  00  00  00
DESTIN      60  74  54  76  56 /  00  00  00  00  00
EVERGREEN   41  73  43  76  44 /  00  00  00  00  00
WAYNESBORO  42  74  42  76  45 /  00  00  00  00  00
CAMDEN      41  73  42  76  45 /  00  00  00  00  00
CRESTVIEW   42  75  42  78  43 /  00  00  00  00  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMOB 221808
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
108 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.AVIATION UPDATE...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 23/18Z. LIGHT NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE. 12/DS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 436 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...HIGH AMPLITUDE MID TO UPPER
RIDGE AXIS LOCATED NEAR THE LA/TX BORDER THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE
TO SHIFT EAST REACHING CENTRAL MS AND LOWER LA BY 12Z THU. AT THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED MOSTLY OVER THE UPPER AND MIDDLE MS
RIVER VALLEYS WILL SHIFT EAST AND SOUTH SETTLING OVER THE TN RIVER
VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF STATES BY 12Z THU. TO THE SOUTH TD 9 LOCATED
OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WILL SHIFT EAST TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY
12Z THU LEADING TO A BETTER PRES/THERMAL GRADIENT GENERALLY OVER THE
NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES AND NORTHERN GULF BY 12Z THU...THUS
ALLOWING FOR BETTER MIXING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER FOR MUCH OF THE
CWFA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE
SFC TEMPS SOMEWHAT THROUGH TONIGHT ALSO...THOUGH WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE STILL ON TAP FOR TODAY AND CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. AS FOR
TEMPS WILL USE A BLEND OF THE MAV AND MET GUIDANCE THROUGH TONIGHT
RESULTING IN AFTERNOON HIGHS REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 70S FOR MOST
OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWFA AND THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
FURTHER SOUTH TO THE COAST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE A TAD COOLER THAN
PREVIOUS NIGHTS WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S FOR
MOST INLAND AREAS GENERALLY NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S CLOSER TO THE COAST. 32/EE

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...THIS MAY START TO SOUND LIKE
A BROKEN RECORD...BUT DRY AND QUIET WEATHER WILL PERSIST FROM THE END
OF THIS WEEK THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. NEAR NORMAL HIGHS WITH BELOW
NORMAL LOWS ARE EXPECTED THU-FRI AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS ANCHORED FROM THE MIDWEST SOUTH TO THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND
LOWER MS VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THIS WEEKEND AS MID TO
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL STATES BUILDS EAST. WEEKEND
HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...BUT LOWS WILL STILL AVERAGE
NEAR NORMAL DUE TO A VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE AND GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS.

THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...ALONG WITH SFC RIDGING...WILL MOVE
WELL EAST OF THE AREA BY MON-TUE OF NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SOUTHERLY SFC FLOW. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL CLIMB IN
RESPONSE WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. DESPITE
THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL LIKELY REMAIN VERY DRY AND THIS WILL KEEP RAIN
CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY. 34/JFB

AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 23.12Z. SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO BE CLEAR.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST AT 4 TO 8 KNOTS
THROUGH 32.12Z. 32/EE

MARINE...DEEP HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST AND NORTH COMBINED WITH TD
9 OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE SHIFTING EAST OVER THE LOWER GULF WILL
HELP MAINTAIN A MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY FLOW OVER
THE MARINE AREA THROUGH THU...FOLLOWED BY A DEEPENING LONG WAVE TROF
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WHICH SHOULD HELP LIFT TD 9 TO THE
NORTHEAST POSSIBLY OVER THE FL PENINSULA BY THE WEEKEND OR EARLY
NEXT WEEK. AS FOR TD 9 BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT
THROUGH FRI WITH THE GFS BECOMING MORE ROBUST WITH THE STRENGTH AND
TRACK OF THE SYSTEM AS IT EVENTUALLY EMERGES INTO THE SE GULF AND FL
STRAITS. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...WITH THIS PATTERN WE COULD SEE
EXERCISE CAUTION OR SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS LATER THIS WEEK AND
POSSIBLY INTO THE WEEKEND WHICH MOSTLY DEPENDS ON THE INTENSITY AND
LOCATION OF TD 9 BY LATE IN THE WEEK. BETTER SWELL MOSTLY FROM THE
SOUTH WILL ALSO BE LIKELY LATE IN THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND AS
THIS SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH SHIFTS EAST. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      48  75  47  77  49 /  00  00  00  00  00
PENSACOLA   52  75  51  77  53 /  00  00  00  00  00
DESTIN      55  74  57  75  59 /  00  00  00  00  00
EVERGREEN   41  73  42  76  45 /  00  00  00  00  00
WAYNESBORO  42  74  42  77  45 /  00  00  00  00  00
CAMDEN      41  73  42  76  45 /  00  00  00  00  00
CRESTVIEW   41  76  42  77  44 /  00  00  00  00  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KMOB 220936
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
436 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...HIGH AMPLITUDE MID TO UPPER
RIDGE AXIS LOCATED NEAR THE LA/TX BORDER THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE
TO SHIFT EAST REACHING CENTRAL MS AND LOWER LA BY 12Z THU. AT THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED MOSTLY OVER THE UPPER AND MIDDLE MS
RIVER VALLEYS WILL SHIFT EAST AND SOUTH SETTLING OVER THE TN RIVER
VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF STATES BY 12Z THU. TO THE SOUTH TD 9 LOCATED
OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WILL SHIFT EAST TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY
12Z THU LEADING TO A BETTER PRES/THERMAL GRADIENT GENERALLY OVER THE
NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES AND NORTHERN GULF BY 12Z THU...THUS
ALLOWING FOR BETTER MIXING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER FOR MUCH OF THE
CWFA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE
SFC TEMPS SOMEWHAT THROUGH TONIGHT ALSO...THOUGH WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE STILL ON TAP FOR TODAY AND CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. AS FOR
TEMPS WILL USE A BLEND OF THE MAV AND MET GUIDANCE THROUGH TONIGHT
RESULTING IN AFTERNOON HIGHS REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 70S FOR MOST
OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWFA AND THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
FURTHER SOUTH TO THE COAST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE A TAD COOLER THAN
PREVIOUS NIGHTS WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S FOR
MOST INLAND AREAS GENERALLY NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S CLOSER TO THE COAST. 32/EE

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...THIS MAY START TO SOUND LIKE
A BROKEN RECORD...BUT DRY AND QUIET WEATHER WILL PERSIST FROM THE END
OF THIS WEEK THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. NEAR NORMAL HIGHS WITH BELOW
NORMAL LOWS ARE EXPECTED THU-FRI AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS ANCHORED FROM THE MIDWEST SOUTH TO THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND
LOWER MS VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THIS WEEKEND AS MID TO
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL STATES BUILDS EAST. WEEKEND
HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...BUT LOWS WILL STILL AVERAGE
NEAR NORMAL DUE TO A VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE AND GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS.

THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...ALONG WITH SFC RIDGING...WILL MOVE
WELL EAST OF THE AREA BY MON-TUE OF NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SOUTHERLY SFC FLOW. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL CLIMB IN
RESPONSE WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. DESPITE
THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL LIKELY REMAIN VERY DRY AND THIS WILL KEEP RAIN
CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY. 34/JFB

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 23.12Z. SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO BE CLEAR.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST AT 4 TO 8 KNOTS
THROUGH 32.12Z. 32/EE

&&

.MARINE...DEEP HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST AND NORTH COMBINED WITH TD
9 OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE SHIFTING EAST OVER THE LOWER GULF WILL
HELP MAINTAIN A MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY FLOW OVER
THE MARINE AREA THROUGH THU...FOLLOWED BY A DEEPENING LONG WAVE TROF
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WHICH SHOULD HELP LIFT TD 9 TO THE
NORTHEAST POSSIBLY OVER THE FL PENINSULA BY THE WEEKEND OR EARLY
NEXT WEEK. AS FOR TD 9 BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT
THROUGH FRI WITH THE GFS BECOMING MORE ROBUST WITH THE STRENGTH AND
TRACK OF THE SYSTEM AS IT EVENTUALLY EMERGES INTO THE SE GULF AND FL
STRAITS. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...WITH THIS PATTERN WE COULD SEE
EXERCISE CAUTION OR SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS LATER THIS WEEK AND
POSSIBLY INTO THE WEEKEND WHICH MOSTLY DEPENDS ON THE INTENSITY AND
LOCATION OF TD 9 BY LATE IN THE WEEK. BETTER SWELL MOSTLY FROM THE
SOUTH WILL ALSO BE LIKELY LATE IN THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND AS
THIS SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH SHIFTS EAST. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      80  48  75  47  77 /  00  00  00  00  00
PENSACOLA   79  52  75  51  77 /  00  00  00  00  00
DESTIN      75  55  74  57  75 /  00  00  00  00  00
EVERGREEN   77  41  73  42  76 /  00  00  00  00  00
WAYNESBORO  78  42  74  42  77 /  00  00  00  00  00
CAMDEN      76  41  73  42  76 /  00  00  00  00  00
CRESTVIEW   81  41  76  42  77 /  00  00  00  00  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KMOB 220936
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
436 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...HIGH AMPLITUDE MID TO UPPER
RIDGE AXIS LOCATED NEAR THE LA/TX BORDER THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE
TO SHIFT EAST REACHING CENTRAL MS AND LOWER LA BY 12Z THU. AT THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED MOSTLY OVER THE UPPER AND MIDDLE MS
RIVER VALLEYS WILL SHIFT EAST AND SOUTH SETTLING OVER THE TN RIVER
VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF STATES BY 12Z THU. TO THE SOUTH TD 9 LOCATED
OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WILL SHIFT EAST TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY
12Z THU LEADING TO A BETTER PRES/THERMAL GRADIENT GENERALLY OVER THE
NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES AND NORTHERN GULF BY 12Z THU...THUS
ALLOWING FOR BETTER MIXING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER FOR MUCH OF THE
CWFA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE
SFC TEMPS SOMEWHAT THROUGH TONIGHT ALSO...THOUGH WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE STILL ON TAP FOR TODAY AND CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. AS FOR
TEMPS WILL USE A BLEND OF THE MAV AND MET GUIDANCE THROUGH TONIGHT
RESULTING IN AFTERNOON HIGHS REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 70S FOR MOST
OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWFA AND THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
FURTHER SOUTH TO THE COAST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE A TAD COOLER THAN
PREVIOUS NIGHTS WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S FOR
MOST INLAND AREAS GENERALLY NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S CLOSER TO THE COAST. 32/EE

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...THIS MAY START TO SOUND LIKE
A BROKEN RECORD...BUT DRY AND QUIET WEATHER WILL PERSIST FROM THE END
OF THIS WEEK THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. NEAR NORMAL HIGHS WITH BELOW
NORMAL LOWS ARE EXPECTED THU-FRI AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS ANCHORED FROM THE MIDWEST SOUTH TO THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND
LOWER MS VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THIS WEEKEND AS MID TO
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL STATES BUILDS EAST. WEEKEND
HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...BUT LOWS WILL STILL AVERAGE
NEAR NORMAL DUE TO A VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE AND GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS.

THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...ALONG WITH SFC RIDGING...WILL MOVE
WELL EAST OF THE AREA BY MON-TUE OF NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SOUTHERLY SFC FLOW. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL CLIMB IN
RESPONSE WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. DESPITE
THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL LIKELY REMAIN VERY DRY AND THIS WILL KEEP RAIN
CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY. 34/JFB

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 23.12Z. SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO BE CLEAR.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST AT 4 TO 8 KNOTS
THROUGH 32.12Z. 32/EE

&&

.MARINE...DEEP HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST AND NORTH COMBINED WITH TD
9 OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE SHIFTING EAST OVER THE LOWER GULF WILL
HELP MAINTAIN A MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY FLOW OVER
THE MARINE AREA THROUGH THU...FOLLOWED BY A DEEPENING LONG WAVE TROF
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WHICH SHOULD HELP LIFT TD 9 TO THE
NORTHEAST POSSIBLY OVER THE FL PENINSULA BY THE WEEKEND OR EARLY
NEXT WEEK. AS FOR TD 9 BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT
THROUGH FRI WITH THE GFS BECOMING MORE ROBUST WITH THE STRENGTH AND
TRACK OF THE SYSTEM AS IT EVENTUALLY EMERGES INTO THE SE GULF AND FL
STRAITS. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...WITH THIS PATTERN WE COULD SEE
EXERCISE CAUTION OR SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS LATER THIS WEEK AND
POSSIBLY INTO THE WEEKEND WHICH MOSTLY DEPENDS ON THE INTENSITY AND
LOCATION OF TD 9 BY LATE IN THE WEEK. BETTER SWELL MOSTLY FROM THE
SOUTH WILL ALSO BE LIKELY LATE IN THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND AS
THIS SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH SHIFTS EAST. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      80  48  75  47  77 /  00  00  00  00  00
PENSACOLA   79  52  75  51  77 /  00  00  00  00  00
DESTIN      75  55  74  57  75 /  00  00  00  00  00
EVERGREEN   77  41  73  42  76 /  00  00  00  00  00
WAYNESBORO  78  42  74  42  77 /  00  00  00  00  00
CAMDEN      76  41  73  42  76 /  00  00  00  00  00
CRESTVIEW   81  41  76  42  77 /  00  00  00  00  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KMOB 220454 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1150 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AVIATION...
22.06Z TAF ISSUANCE...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. /13

&&

.UPDATE...HAVE LOWERED OVERNIGHT LOWS A FEW DEGREES MAINLY ACROSS
EXTREME SOUTHWEST ALABAMA. REMAINDER OF FORECAST IS ON TRACK. UPDATE
OUT SOON. /29

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)...SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AND
ALSO A GRADUALLY BUILDING UPPER RIDGE REMAIN DOMINANT WEATHER
FEATURES TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. UNDER CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT EXPECT
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS TONIGHT OVER INTERIOR ZONES (UPPER
40S)...CLOSE TO NORMAL TEMPS NEAR THE COAST (MID TO UPPER 50S). NEAR
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR MAX TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY...RANGING
FROM MID 70S OVER NORTHERN HALF OF FCST AREA AND UPPER 70S SOUTHERN
HALF. LIGHT (TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE NEAR THE COAST) NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. 12/DS

(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...EXPECTING COOL AND DRY
FOR THE PERIOD. PRECIPITABLE WATER EXPECTED TO AVERAGE A QUARTER TO
HALF AN INCH ESPECIALLY THURSDAY...GOING BELOW A QUARTER INCH AT
TIMES. LIFTED INDEX IN THE MID TEENS. VERY STABLE DRY ATMOSPHERE AND
CLEAR SKY WILL PREVAIL. LOWS CONSIDERABLY COOLER THAN THE DAILY
MEAN...10 DEGREES ON AVERAGE. USED MAV GUIDANCE WITH A FEW
ADJUSTMENTS BUT GENERALLY NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM BEFORE.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...NO CHANGES TO FORECAST. OUR
WEATHER CONTINUES TO BE COOL AND DRY FOR THE REST OF THIS FORESEEABLE
WEEK. THERE IS CLOSE PHASING OF THE GFS AND EURO OUTPUTS OUT TO 96
HOURS...BUT THEN A 500 MB RIDGE IS SHOWN BY THE EURO LAGGING BEHIND
THE GFS BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF LONGITUDE OUT TO 136 HOURS. THERE
IS A DEEPLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH EXTENDING FROM A 500 MB CLOSED LOW OVER
THE WEST ATLANTIC ON THURSDAY... ASSOCIATED WITH A NOR`EASTER
INDICATED AT THE SURFACE AND DRAGGING A FRONT INTO OUR REGION. THE
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE PAST THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW
OCCLUDES AND MOVES INTO THE CAPE COD REGION BY FRIDAY...AND THE GULF
OF SAINT LAWRENCE SUNDAY. ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ALONG THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH INTO THE EASTERN GULF STATES FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THEY WILL REINFORCE THE DRY AIR WE NOW HAVE WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER RUNNING A HALF INCH OR LESS THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH
TEMPS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WILL BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S. LOWS WILL TREND A LITTLE COOLER THAN NORMAL AND WILL LEAN
TOWARD THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...RESULTING IN LOWS WELL INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...EXCEPT LOWER 50S ALONG THE BEACHES.

A GRADUAL WARM-UP IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
A LARGE MID TO UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL STATES MOVES EAST. THE
RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL TRANSLATE TO HIGH TEMPS WARMING TO A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOWS COOLING TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS GIVEN THE VERY
DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE.

77/BD

MARINE...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE
MARINE AREA FROM THE NORTH INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND. A
DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST TOWARD
CUBA. THESE SYSTEMS WILL COMBINE TO BRING A MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY
STRONG NORTHEAST WIND FLOW TO THE MARINE AREA THROUGH LATE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND. WINDS COULD BE A LITTLE STRONGER THAN FORECAST IF
THE LOW INTENSIFIES A MORE THAN EXPECTED. INCREASING SWELLS FROM THE
SOUTH POSSIBLE IF THE LOW MOVES FURTHER NORTH OR IS STRONGER THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST. 12/DS


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      54  78  47  75  49 /  00  05  00  00  00
PENSACOLA   57  79  49  75  53 /  00  05  00  00  00
DESTIN      64  77  60  72  56 /  00  05  00  00  00
EVERGREEN   48  75  41  74  42 /  00  05  00  00  00
WAYNESBORO  49  77  42  74  41 /  00  05  00  00  00
CAMDEN      48  75  43  74  43 /  00  05  00  00  10
CRESTVIEW   46  77  43  76  43 /  00  05  00  00  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$













000
FXUS64 KMOB 220454 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1150 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AVIATION...
22.06Z TAF ISSUANCE...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. /13

&&

.UPDATE...HAVE LOWERED OVERNIGHT LOWS A FEW DEGREES MAINLY ACROSS
EXTREME SOUTHWEST ALABAMA. REMAINDER OF FORECAST IS ON TRACK. UPDATE
OUT SOON. /29

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)...SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AND
ALSO A GRADUALLY BUILDING UPPER RIDGE REMAIN DOMINANT WEATHER
FEATURES TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. UNDER CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT EXPECT
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS TONIGHT OVER INTERIOR ZONES (UPPER
40S)...CLOSE TO NORMAL TEMPS NEAR THE COAST (MID TO UPPER 50S). NEAR
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR MAX TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY...RANGING
FROM MID 70S OVER NORTHERN HALF OF FCST AREA AND UPPER 70S SOUTHERN
HALF. LIGHT (TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE NEAR THE COAST) NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. 12/DS

(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...EXPECTING COOL AND DRY
FOR THE PERIOD. PRECIPITABLE WATER EXPECTED TO AVERAGE A QUARTER TO
HALF AN INCH ESPECIALLY THURSDAY...GOING BELOW A QUARTER INCH AT
TIMES. LIFTED INDEX IN THE MID TEENS. VERY STABLE DRY ATMOSPHERE AND
CLEAR SKY WILL PREVAIL. LOWS CONSIDERABLY COOLER THAN THE DAILY
MEAN...10 DEGREES ON AVERAGE. USED MAV GUIDANCE WITH A FEW
ADJUSTMENTS BUT GENERALLY NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM BEFORE.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...NO CHANGES TO FORECAST. OUR
WEATHER CONTINUES TO BE COOL AND DRY FOR THE REST OF THIS FORESEEABLE
WEEK. THERE IS CLOSE PHASING OF THE GFS AND EURO OUTPUTS OUT TO 96
HOURS...BUT THEN A 500 MB RIDGE IS SHOWN BY THE EURO LAGGING BEHIND
THE GFS BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF LONGITUDE OUT TO 136 HOURS. THERE
IS A DEEPLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH EXTENDING FROM A 500 MB CLOSED LOW OVER
THE WEST ATLANTIC ON THURSDAY... ASSOCIATED WITH A NOR`EASTER
INDICATED AT THE SURFACE AND DRAGGING A FRONT INTO OUR REGION. THE
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE PAST THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW
OCCLUDES AND MOVES INTO THE CAPE COD REGION BY FRIDAY...AND THE GULF
OF SAINT LAWRENCE SUNDAY. ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ALONG THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH INTO THE EASTERN GULF STATES FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THEY WILL REINFORCE THE DRY AIR WE NOW HAVE WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER RUNNING A HALF INCH OR LESS THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH
TEMPS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WILL BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S. LOWS WILL TREND A LITTLE COOLER THAN NORMAL AND WILL LEAN
TOWARD THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...RESULTING IN LOWS WELL INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...EXCEPT LOWER 50S ALONG THE BEACHES.

A GRADUAL WARM-UP IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
A LARGE MID TO UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL STATES MOVES EAST. THE
RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL TRANSLATE TO HIGH TEMPS WARMING TO A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOWS COOLING TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS GIVEN THE VERY
DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE.

77/BD

MARINE...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE
MARINE AREA FROM THE NORTH INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND. A
DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST TOWARD
CUBA. THESE SYSTEMS WILL COMBINE TO BRING A MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY
STRONG NORTHEAST WIND FLOW TO THE MARINE AREA THROUGH LATE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND. WINDS COULD BE A LITTLE STRONGER THAN FORECAST IF
THE LOW INTENSIFIES A MORE THAN EXPECTED. INCREASING SWELLS FROM THE
SOUTH POSSIBLE IF THE LOW MOVES FURTHER NORTH OR IS STRONGER THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST. 12/DS


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      54  78  47  75  49 /  00  05  00  00  00
PENSACOLA   57  79  49  75  53 /  00  05  00  00  00
DESTIN      64  77  60  72  56 /  00  05  00  00  00
EVERGREEN   48  75  41  74  42 /  00  05  00  00  00
WAYNESBORO  49  77  42  74  41 /  00  05  00  00  00
CAMDEN      48  75  43  74  43 /  00  05  00  00  10
CRESTVIEW   46  77  43  76  43 /  00  05  00  00  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$













000
FXUS64 KMOB 220319 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1019 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...HAVE LOWERED OVERNIGHT LOWS A FEW DEGREES MAINLY ACROSS
EXTREME SOUTHWEST ALABAMA. REMAINDER OF FORECAST IS ON TRACK. UPDATE
OUT SOON. /29

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)...SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AND
ALSO A GRADUALLY BUILDING UPPER RIDGE REMAIN DOMINANT WEATHER
FEATURES TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. UNDER CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT EXPECT
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS TONIGHT OVER INTERIOR ZONES (UPPER
40S)...CLOSE TO NORMAL TEMPS NEAR THE COAST (MID TO UPPER 50S). NEAR
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR MAX TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY...RANGING
FROM MID 70S OVER NORTHERN HALF OF FCST AREA AND UPPER 70S SOUTHERN
HALF. LIGHT (TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE NEAR THE COAST) NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. 12/DS

(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...EXPECTING COOL AND DRY
FOR THE PERIOD. PRECIPITABLE WATER EXPECTED TO AVERAGE A QUARTER TO
HALF AN INCH ESPECIALLY THURSDAY...GOING BELOW A QUARTER INCH AT
TIMES. LIFTED INDEX IN THE MID TEENS. VERY STABLE DRY ATMOSPHERE AND
CLEAR SKY WILL PREVAIL. LOWS CONSIDERABLY COOLER THAN THE DAILY
MEAN...10 DEGREES ON AVERAGE. USED MAV GUIDANCE WITH A FEW
ADJUSTMENTS BUT GENERALLY NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM BEFORE.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...NO CHANGES TO FORECAST. OUR
WEATHER CONTINUES TO BE COOL AND DRY FOR THE REST OF THIS FORESEEABLE
WEEK. THERE IS CLOSE PHASING OF THE GFS AND EURO OUTPUTS OUT TO 96
HOURS...BUT THEN A 500 MB RIDGE IS SHOWN BY THE EURO LAGGING BEHIND
THE GFS BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF LONGITUDE OUT TO 136 HOURS. THERE
IS A DEEPLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH EXTENDING FROM A 500 MB CLOSED LOW OVER
THE WEST ATLANTIC ON THURSDAY... ASSOCIATED WITH A NOR`EASTER
INDICATED AT THE SURFACE AND DRAGGING A FRONT INTO OUR REGION. THE
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE PAST THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW
OCCLUDES AND MOVES INTO THE CAPE COD REGION BY FRIDAY...AND THE GULF
OF SAINT LAWRENCE SUNDAY. ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ALONG THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH INTO THE EASTERN GULF STATES FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THEY WILL REINFORCE THE DRY AIR WE NOW HAVE WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER RUNNING A HALF INCH OR LESS THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH
TEMPS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WILL BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S. LOWS WILL TREND A LITTLE COOLER THAN NORMAL AND WILL LEAN
TOWARD THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...RESULTING IN LOWS WELL INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...EXCEPT LOWER 50S ALONG THE BEACHES.

A GRADUAL WARM-UP IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
A LARGE MID TO UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL STATES MOVES EAST. THE
RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL TRANSLATE TO HIGH TEMPS WARMING TO A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOWS COOLING TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS GIVEN THE VERY
DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE.

77/BD

MARINE...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE
MARINE AREA FROM THE NORTH INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND. A
DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST TOWARD
CUBA. THESE SYSTEMS WILL COMBINE TO BRING A MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY
STRONG NORTHEAST WIND FLOW TO THE MARINE AREA THROUGH LATE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND. WINDS COULD BE A LITTLE STRONGER THAN FORECAST IF
THE LOW INTENSIFIES A MORE THAN EXPECTED. INCREASING SWELLS FROM THE
SOUTH POSSIBLE IF THE LOW MOVES FURTHER NORTH OR IS STRONGER THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST. 12/DS

AVIATION...
22.00Z TAF ISSUANCES...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH PERIOD. LITTLE TO NO CLOUDS AND NO
RESTRICTIONS TO SFC VSBY. A LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST SURFACE WIND
FLOW EXPECTED. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      54  78  47  75  49 /  00  05  00  00  00
PENSACOLA   57  79  49  75  53 /  00  05  00  00  00
DESTIN      64  77  60  72  56 /  00  05  00  00  00
EVERGREEN   48  75  41  74  42 /  00  05  00  00  00
WAYNESBORO  49  77  42  74  41 /  00  05  00  00  00
CAMDEN      48  75  43  74  43 /  00  05  00  00  10
CRESTVIEW   46  77  43  76  43 /  00  05  00  00  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KMOB 212115
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
415 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)...SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AND
ALSO A GRADUALLY BUILDING UPPER RIDGE REMAIN DOMINANT WEATHER
FEATURES TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. UNDER CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT EXPECT
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS TONIGHT OVER INTERIOR ZONES (UPPER
40S)...CLOSE TO NORMAL TEMPS NEAR THE COAST (MID TO UPPER 50S). NEAR
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR MAX TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY...RANGING
FROM MID 70S OVER NORTHERN HALF OF FCST AREA AND UPPER 70S SOUTHERN
HALF. LIGHT (TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE NEAR THE COAST) NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. 12/DS

(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...EXPECTING COOL AND DRY
FOR THE PERIOD. PRECIPITABLE WATER EXPECTED TO AVERAGE A QUARTER TO
HALF AN INCH ESPECIALLY THURSDAY...GOING BELOW A QUARTER INCH AT
TIMES. LIFTED INDEX IN THE MID TEENS. VERY STABLE DRY ATMOSPHERE AND
CLEAR SKY WILL PREVAIL. LOWS CONSIDERABLY COOLER THAN THE DAILY
MEAN...10 DEGREES ON AVERAGE. USED MAV GUIDANCE WITH A FEW
ADJUSTMENTS BUT GENERALLY NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM BEFORE.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...NO CHANGES TO FORECAST. OUR
WEATHER CONTINUES TO BE COOL AND DRY FOR THE REST OF THIS FORESEEABLE
WEEK. THERE IS CLOSE PHASING OF THE GFS AND EURO OUTPUTS OUT TO 96
HOURS...BUT THEN A 500 MB RIDGE IS SHOWN BY THE EURO LAGGING BEHIND
THE GFS BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF LONGITUDE OUT TO 136 HOURS. THERE
IS A DEEPLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH EXTENDING FROM A 500 MB CLOSED LOW OVER
THE WEST ATLANTIC ON THURSDAY... ASSOCIATED WITH A NOR`EASTER
INDICATED AT THE SURFACE AND DRAGGING A FRONT INTO OUR REGION. THE
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE PAST THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW
OCCLUDES AND MOVES INTO THE CAPE COD REGION BY FRIDAY...AND THE GULF
OF SAINT LAWRENCE SUNDAY. ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ALONG THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH INTO THE EASTERN GULF STATES FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THEY WILL REINFORCE THE DRY AIR WE NOW HAVE WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER RUNNING A HALF INCH OR LESS THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH
TEMPS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WILL BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S. LOWS WILL TREND A LITTLE COOLER THAN NORMAL AND WILL LEAN
TOWARD THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...RESULTING IN LOWS WELL INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...EXCEPT LOWER 50S ALONG THE BEACHES.

A GRADUAL WARM-UP IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
A LARGE MID TO UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL STATES MOVES EAST. THE
RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL TRANSLATE TO HIGH TEMPS WARMING TO A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOWS COOLING TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS GIVEN THE VERY
DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE.

77/BD

&&

.MARINE...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE
MARINE AREA FROM THE NORTH INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND. A
DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST TOWARD
CUBA. THESE SYSTEMS WILL COMBINE TO BRING A MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY
STRONG NORTHEAST WIND FLOW TO THE MARINE AREA THROUGH LATE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND. WINDS COULD BE A LITTLE STRONGER THAN FORECAST IF
THE LOW INTENSIFIES A MORE THAN EXPECTED. INCREASING SWELLS FROM THE
SOUTH POSSIBLE IF THE LOW MOVES FURTHER NORTH OR IS STRONGER THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST. 12/DS

&&

.AVIATION...
22.00Z TAF ISSUANCES...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH PERIOD. LITTLE TO NO CLOUDS AND NO
RESTRICTIONS TO SFC VSBY. A LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST SURFACE WIND
FLOW EXPECTED. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      56  78  47  75  49 /  00  05  00  00  00
PENSACOLA   58  79  49  75  53 /  00  05  00  00  00
DESTIN      64  77  60  72  56 /  00  05  00  00  00
EVERGREEN   48  75  41  74  42 /  00  05  00  00  00
WAYNESBORO  49  77  42  74  41 /  00  05  00  00  00
CAMDEN      48  75  43  74  43 /  00  05  00  00  10
CRESTVIEW   46  77  43  76  43 /  00  05  00  00  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMOB 211913
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
213 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.AVIATION...
18Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH PERIOD. LITTLE TO NO CLOUDS AND
NO RESTRICTIONS TO SFC VSBY. A LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST SURFACE WIND
FLOW EXPECTED. 12/DS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...DEEP RIDGING OVER MUCH TX AND OK
THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT EAST TO LA...AR AND WESTERN MS THROUGH
TONIGHT LEADING TO SLIGHTLY DRIER/COOLER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTH TODAY AND TONIGHT. WITH THIS PATTERN SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO BE
SUNNY TODAY WITH CLEAR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY WED MORNING.
DUE TO SLIGHTLY BETTER MIXING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY WED MORNING THE THREAT OF WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL
REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS THOUGH SOME LOW LYING AREAS
COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG MOSTLY NEAR SUNRISE THIS MORNING AND WED
MORNING. AS FOR TEMPS DUE TO PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL USE A BLEND OF
THE WARMER 00Z MAV GUIDANCE AND CURRENT MET. HIGHS TODAY WILL CLIMB
TO THE LOWER 80S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE UPPER 70S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 40S
FOR MOST INLAND AREAS GENERALLY NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S FURTHER SOUTH TOWARDS THE COAST. 32/EE

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...A DRY AND QUIET FORECAST IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
TROUGH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC ON WEDNESDAY WILL MOVE INTO THE FAR NW
ATLANTIC BY FRIDAY...BUT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY THAT WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND
EASTERN SEABOARD FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THESE FEATURES WILL ALL SERVE
TO REINFORCE A DRY AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES AVERAGING A HALF INCH OR LESS THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WILL BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S. LOWS WILL TREND A LITTLE COOLER THAN NORMAL AND WILL LEAN TOWARD
THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...RESULTING
IN LOWS WELL INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...EXCEPT LOWER 50S
ALONG THE BEACHES.

A GRADUAL WARM-UP IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
A LARGE MID TO UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL STATES MOVES EAST. THE
RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL TRANSLATE TO HIGH TEMPS WARMING TO A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOWS COOLING TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS GIVEN THE VERY
DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE. 34/JFB

AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 22.12Z. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY NORTH AT 3 TO 5
KNOTS THROUGH MID MORNING INCREASING TO 5 TO 8 KNOTS LATER TODAY
CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING THEN BECOMING LIGHT OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY WED MORNING. 32/EE

MARINE...DEEP HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK COMBINED WITH A
DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE MOVING
EASTWARD OVER THE LOWER GULF. THIS PATTERN WILL EVENTUALLY SET UP A
TIGHTER PRES GRADIENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN GULF WITH WINDS
POSSIBLY REACHING 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KNOTS MOSTLY DURING
THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. SEAS UP TO 4 FEET WILL ALSO
BE LIKELY LATER IN THE WEEK. NO SIGNIFICANT RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE FORECAST PD. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      56  78  47  75  49 /  00  05  00  00  00
PENSACOLA   58  79  49  76  53 /  00  05  00  00  00
DESTIN      64  77  60  72  56 /  00  05  00  00  00
EVERGREEN   48  75  41  74  42 /  00  05  00  00  00
WAYNESBORO  49  77  43  74  41 /  00  05  00  00  00
CAMDEN      48  75  43  74  43 /  00  05  00  00  10
CRESTVIEW   46  77  43  76  41 /  00  05  00  00  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KMOB 210901
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
401 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...DEEP RIDGING OVER MUCH TX AND OK
THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT EAST TO LA...AR AND WESTERN MS THROUGH
TONIGHT LEADING TO SLIGHTLY DRIER/COOLER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTH TODAY AND TONIGHT. WITH THIS PATTERN SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO BE
SUNNY TODAY WITH CLEAR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY WED MORNING.
DUE TO SLIGHTLY BETTER MIXING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY WED MORNING THE THREAT OF WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL
REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS THOUGH SOME LOW LYING AREAS
COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG MOSTLY NEAR SUNRISE THIS MORNING AND WED
MORNING. AS FOR TEMPS DUE TO PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL USE A BLEND OF
THE WARMER 00Z MAV GUIDANCE AND CURRENT MET. HIGHS TODAY WILL CLIMB
TO THE LOWER 80S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE UPPER 70S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 40S
FOR MOST INLAND AREAS GENERALLY NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S FURTHER SOUTH TOWARDS THE COAST. 32/EE

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...A DRY AND QUIET FORECAST IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
TROUGH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC ON WEDNESDAY WILL MOVE INTO THE FAR NW
ATLANTIC BY FRIDAY...BUT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY THAT WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND
EASTERN SEABOARD FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THESE FEATURES WILL ALL SERVE
TO REINFORCE A DRY AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES AVERAGING A HALF INCH OR LESS THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WILL BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S. LOWS WILL TREND A LITTLE COOLER THAN NORMAL AND WILL LEAN TOWARD
THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...RESULTING
IN LOWS WELL INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...EXCEPT LOWER 50S
ALONG THE BEACHES.

A GRADUAL WARM-UP IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
A LARGE MID TO UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL STATES MOVES EAST. THE
RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL TRANSLATE TO HIGH TEMPS WARMING TO A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOWS COOLING TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS GIVEN THE VERY
DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE. 34/JFB

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 22.12Z. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY NORTH AT 3 TO 5
KNOTS THROUGH MID MORNING INCREASING TO 5 TO 8 KNOTS LATER TODAY
CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING THEN BECOMING LIGHT OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY WED MORNING. 32/EE

&&

.MARINE...DEEP HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK COMBINED WITH A
DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE MOVING
EASTWARD OVER THE LOWER GULF. THIS PATTERN WILL EVENTUALLY SET UP A
TIGHTER PRES GRADIENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN GULF WITH WINDS
POSSIBLY REACHING 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KNOTS MOSTLY DURING
THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. SEAS UP TO 4 FEET WILL ALSO
BE LIKELY LATER IN THE WEEK. NO SIGNIFICANT RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE FORECAST PD. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      81  54  77  47  75 /  05  05  00  00  00
PENSACOLA   81  58  77  51  75 /  05  05  00  00  00
DESTIN      78  59  76  54  73 /  05  05  00  00  00
EVERGREEN   80  47  75  41  75 /  05  05  00  00  00
WAYNESBORO  81  49  76  42  75 /  00  05  00  00  00
CAMDEN      81  48  74  41  74 /  00  05  00  00  00
CRESTVIEW   82  47  76  41  76 /  05  05  00  00  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMOB 210901
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
401 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...DEEP RIDGING OVER MUCH TX AND OK
THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT EAST TO LA...AR AND WESTERN MS THROUGH
TONIGHT LEADING TO SLIGHTLY DRIER/COOLER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTH TODAY AND TONIGHT. WITH THIS PATTERN SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO BE
SUNNY TODAY WITH CLEAR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY WED MORNING.
DUE TO SLIGHTLY BETTER MIXING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY WED MORNING THE THREAT OF WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL
REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS THOUGH SOME LOW LYING AREAS
COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG MOSTLY NEAR SUNRISE THIS MORNING AND WED
MORNING. AS FOR TEMPS DUE TO PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL USE A BLEND OF
THE WARMER 00Z MAV GUIDANCE AND CURRENT MET. HIGHS TODAY WILL CLIMB
TO THE LOWER 80S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE UPPER 70S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 40S
FOR MOST INLAND AREAS GENERALLY NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S FURTHER SOUTH TOWARDS THE COAST. 32/EE

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...A DRY AND QUIET FORECAST IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
TROUGH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC ON WEDNESDAY WILL MOVE INTO THE FAR NW
ATLANTIC BY FRIDAY...BUT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY THAT WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND
EASTERN SEABOARD FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THESE FEATURES WILL ALL SERVE
TO REINFORCE A DRY AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES AVERAGING A HALF INCH OR LESS THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WILL BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S. LOWS WILL TREND A LITTLE COOLER THAN NORMAL AND WILL LEAN TOWARD
THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...RESULTING
IN LOWS WELL INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...EXCEPT LOWER 50S
ALONG THE BEACHES.

A GRADUAL WARM-UP IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
A LARGE MID TO UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL STATES MOVES EAST. THE
RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL TRANSLATE TO HIGH TEMPS WARMING TO A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOWS COOLING TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS GIVEN THE VERY
DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE. 34/JFB

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 22.12Z. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY NORTH AT 3 TO 5
KNOTS THROUGH MID MORNING INCREASING TO 5 TO 8 KNOTS LATER TODAY
CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING THEN BECOMING LIGHT OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY WED MORNING. 32/EE

&&

.MARINE...DEEP HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK COMBINED WITH A
DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE MOVING
EASTWARD OVER THE LOWER GULF. THIS PATTERN WILL EVENTUALLY SET UP A
TIGHTER PRES GRADIENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN GULF WITH WINDS
POSSIBLY REACHING 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KNOTS MOSTLY DURING
THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. SEAS UP TO 4 FEET WILL ALSO
BE LIKELY LATER IN THE WEEK. NO SIGNIFICANT RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE FORECAST PD. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      81  54  77  47  75 /  05  05  00  00  00
PENSACOLA   81  58  77  51  75 /  05  05  00  00  00
DESTIN      78  59  76  54  73 /  05  05  00  00  00
EVERGREEN   80  47  75  41  75 /  05  05  00  00  00
WAYNESBORO  81  49  76  42  75 /  00  05  00  00  00
CAMDEN      81  48  74  41  74 /  00  05  00  00  00
CRESTVIEW   82  47  76  41  76 /  05  05  00  00  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KMOB 210427 AAC
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE TO AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1130 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...(1000 PM)CURRENT PACKAGE ON TRACK. A RE-ENFORCING FRONT IS
STARTING TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY ATTM AND CROSS
THE FA LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. STILL NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE
WAY OF CLOUDS WITH THIS FRONT...JUST SOME COOLER...DRIER AIR.

/16

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z ISSUANCE...CURRENT CLOUD COVER WELL ABOVE ANY LEVELS THAT MAY
IMPACT ANY OPERATIONS OVER THE FA. A RE-ENFORCING FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO CROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BRINGING A MORE
ORGANIZED NORTHERLY FLOW. AM NOT EXPECTING A STRONG NORTHERLY PUSH
BEHIND THE FRONT...THOUGH.

/16

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS RELATIVELY COOL AND DRY AIRMASS
REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION. A WEAK (AND PRECIP FREE) COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...BRINGING
A REINFORCEMENT OF THE COOL/DRY AIR. MAY SEE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY MORNING...BUT GENERALLY MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. WITH MODEL DATA INDICATING A 8-10 DEGREE
TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREAD TONIGHT...REMOVED THE PATCHY FOG FROM
FCST ZONES (ALTHOUGH VERY ISOLATED PATCHES OF GROUND FOG COULD STILL
BE POSSIBLE). LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S INLAND AND LOW TO
MID 50S COASTAL. HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.
12/DS

[TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT]...500 MB TROUGH IN THE GREAT
LAKES REGION IS CONTRIBUTING MUCH EARLY ON TO THE LARGER WAVENUMBER 5
ENERGY DISTRIBUTION. THE FEATURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND BECOME A
CUTOFF 500 MB LOW STILL MOVING SOUTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT. THEN IT WILL
TURN LEFT OVER THE ATLANTIC RUNNING ALONG THE EAST COAST NORTHEAST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AS WELL...FOLLOWING THE UPPER
FEATURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TUESDAY NIGHT AND DEEPENING AS IT
TURNS IN SIMILAR FASHION MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG THE EAST COAST
WEDNESDAY. 500 MB RIDGE EXITING THE PLAINS STATES WILL DAMPEN SOME
BEFORE REACHING THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BY
THEN WE SHOULD SEE A SURFACE LOW FORMING OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. A LIGHT NORTH WIND WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS. LOWS 4 TO 8 DEGREES
BELOW MONTHLY NORMALS. HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TUESDAY...AND A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY. 77/BD

.LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...THE EURO AND GFS ARE IN
PRETTY CLOSE PHASE THROUGH 96 HRS...THEN PHASING DRIFTS SLIGHTLY
APART THEREAFTER WITH A SLIGHT LAG IN THE GFS...NO MORE THAN ABOUT 2
OR 3 DEGREES OF LONGITUDE. THE THE UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY PASSING US TO THE EAST AND MOVING INTO THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES ON THURSDAY. THAT RIDGE WILL SOON BE FOLLOWED
BY A TROUGH. SEVERAL PERTURBATIONS IN THE 500 MB FLOW WILL TRAVEL
SOUTHEAST OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT WITH MINIMAL
RAIN CHANCES. PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL RARELY GET ABOVE 0.75 INCHES
THROUGH THE PERIOD AND IS INDICATED TO STAY AROUND 0.5 TO 0.6 INCHES
MOST OF THE TIME. THE SURFACE LOW IN THE SOUTHERN GULF WILL MOVE EAST
AS A HIGH REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
NEW 500 MB RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD OVER OUR REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT LATE IN THE PERIOD THE EURO HAS COME INTO PHASE
WITH THE GFS INSOFAR AS HOW THIS GULF LOW EVOLVES AND MOVES EAST...UP
UNTIL ABOUT 96 HOURS INTO THE PROGNOSIS. THEREAFTER THE EURO WANTS TO
KEEP IT SOUTH IN THE CARIBBEAN AND THE GFS TENDS TO SEPARATE THE LOW
INTO TWO...SENDING ONE TO THE BAHAMAS AND KEEPING THE OTHER CENTER
MOVING EAST INTO THE CARIBBEAN. SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR WITH CONTINUED
DRY CONDITIONS. 77/BD

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MARINE AREA LATE TONIGHT
OR EARLY TUESDAY...WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDING OVER THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND NORTH CENTRAL GULF THROUGH LATE
WEEK. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH LATE WEEK AS WELL. THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT
IN A LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND FLOW OVER THE MARINE
AREA THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND. FLOW COULD BECOME
SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST IF THE SOUTHERN GULF LOW
PRESSURE BECOMES MORE ORGANIZED. THE LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH
WILL LIKELY DRIFT EAST INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OR THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN BY THE WEEKEND...AND WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR
DEVELOPMENT...BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE ANY IMPACTS ON THE LOCAL
MARINE AREA AT THIS TIME. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      53  79  55  76  51 /  05  05  05  00  05
PENSACOLA   57  81  56  76  56 /  05  05  05  00  05
DESTIN      65  78  61  75  57 /  05  05  05  00  05
EVERGREEN   47  80  48  74  43 /  05  05  05  00  05
WAYNESBORO  46  80  48  75  43 /  05  00  05  00  05
CAMDEN      48  80  48  73  44 /  05  00  05  00  05
CRESTVIEW   47  81  50  76  45 /  05  05  05  00  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$















000
FXUS64 KMOB 210427 AAC
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE TO AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1130 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...(1000 PM)CURRENT PACKAGE ON TRACK. A RE-ENFORCING FRONT IS
STARTING TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY ATTM AND CROSS
THE FA LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. STILL NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE
WAY OF CLOUDS WITH THIS FRONT...JUST SOME COOLER...DRIER AIR.

/16

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z ISSUANCE...CURRENT CLOUD COVER WELL ABOVE ANY LEVELS THAT MAY
IMPACT ANY OPERATIONS OVER THE FA. A RE-ENFORCING FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO CROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BRINGING A MORE
ORGANIZED NORTHERLY FLOW. AM NOT EXPECTING A STRONG NORTHERLY PUSH
BEHIND THE FRONT...THOUGH.

/16

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS RELATIVELY COOL AND DRY AIRMASS
REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION. A WEAK (AND PRECIP FREE) COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...BRINGING
A REINFORCEMENT OF THE COOL/DRY AIR. MAY SEE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY MORNING...BUT GENERALLY MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. WITH MODEL DATA INDICATING A 8-10 DEGREE
TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREAD TONIGHT...REMOVED THE PATCHY FOG FROM
FCST ZONES (ALTHOUGH VERY ISOLATED PATCHES OF GROUND FOG COULD STILL
BE POSSIBLE). LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S INLAND AND LOW TO
MID 50S COASTAL. HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.
12/DS

[TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT]...500 MB TROUGH IN THE GREAT
LAKES REGION IS CONTRIBUTING MUCH EARLY ON TO THE LARGER WAVENUMBER 5
ENERGY DISTRIBUTION. THE FEATURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND BECOME A
CUTOFF 500 MB LOW STILL MOVING SOUTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT. THEN IT WILL
TURN LEFT OVER THE ATLANTIC RUNNING ALONG THE EAST COAST NORTHEAST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AS WELL...FOLLOWING THE UPPER
FEATURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TUESDAY NIGHT AND DEEPENING AS IT
TURNS IN SIMILAR FASHION MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG THE EAST COAST
WEDNESDAY. 500 MB RIDGE EXITING THE PLAINS STATES WILL DAMPEN SOME
BEFORE REACHING THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BY
THEN WE SHOULD SEE A SURFACE LOW FORMING OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. A LIGHT NORTH WIND WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS. LOWS 4 TO 8 DEGREES
BELOW MONTHLY NORMALS. HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TUESDAY...AND A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY. 77/BD

.LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...THE EURO AND GFS ARE IN
PRETTY CLOSE PHASE THROUGH 96 HRS...THEN PHASING DRIFTS SLIGHTLY
APART THEREAFTER WITH A SLIGHT LAG IN THE GFS...NO MORE THAN ABOUT 2
OR 3 DEGREES OF LONGITUDE. THE THE UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY PASSING US TO THE EAST AND MOVING INTO THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES ON THURSDAY. THAT RIDGE WILL SOON BE FOLLOWED
BY A TROUGH. SEVERAL PERTURBATIONS IN THE 500 MB FLOW WILL TRAVEL
SOUTHEAST OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT WITH MINIMAL
RAIN CHANCES. PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL RARELY GET ABOVE 0.75 INCHES
THROUGH THE PERIOD AND IS INDICATED TO STAY AROUND 0.5 TO 0.6 INCHES
MOST OF THE TIME. THE SURFACE LOW IN THE SOUTHERN GULF WILL MOVE EAST
AS A HIGH REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
NEW 500 MB RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD OVER OUR REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT LATE IN THE PERIOD THE EURO HAS COME INTO PHASE
WITH THE GFS INSOFAR AS HOW THIS GULF LOW EVOLVES AND MOVES EAST...UP
UNTIL ABOUT 96 HOURS INTO THE PROGNOSIS. THEREAFTER THE EURO WANTS TO
KEEP IT SOUTH IN THE CARIBBEAN AND THE GFS TENDS TO SEPARATE THE LOW
INTO TWO...SENDING ONE TO THE BAHAMAS AND KEEPING THE OTHER CENTER
MOVING EAST INTO THE CARIBBEAN. SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR WITH CONTINUED
DRY CONDITIONS. 77/BD

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MARINE AREA LATE TONIGHT
OR EARLY TUESDAY...WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDING OVER THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND NORTH CENTRAL GULF THROUGH LATE
WEEK. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH LATE WEEK AS WELL. THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT
IN A LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND FLOW OVER THE MARINE
AREA THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND. FLOW COULD BECOME
SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST IF THE SOUTHERN GULF LOW
PRESSURE BECOMES MORE ORGANIZED. THE LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH
WILL LIKELY DRIFT EAST INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OR THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN BY THE WEEKEND...AND WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR
DEVELOPMENT...BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE ANY IMPACTS ON THE LOCAL
MARINE AREA AT THIS TIME. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      53  79  55  76  51 /  05  05  05  00  05
PENSACOLA   57  81  56  76  56 /  05  05  05  00  05
DESTIN      65  78  61  75  57 /  05  05  05  00  05
EVERGREEN   47  80  48  74  43 /  05  05  05  00  05
WAYNESBORO  46  80  48  75  43 /  05  00  05  00  05
CAMDEN      48  80  48  73  44 /  05  00  05  00  05
CRESTVIEW   47  81  50  76  45 /  05  05  05  00  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$
















000
FXUS64 KMOB 210427 AAC
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE TO AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1130 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...(1000 PM)CURRENT PACKAGE ON TRACK. A RE-ENFORCING FRONT IS
STARTING TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY ATTM AND CROSS
THE FA LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. STILL NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE
WAY OF CLOUDS WITH THIS FRONT...JUST SOME COOLER...DRIER AIR.

/16

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z ISSUANCE...CURRENT CLOUD COVER WELL ABOVE ANY LEVELS THAT MAY
IMPACT ANY OPERATIONS OVER THE FA. A RE-ENFORCING FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO CROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BRINGING A MORE
ORGANIZED NORTHERLY FLOW. AM NOT EXPECTING A STRONG NORTHERLY PUSH
BEHIND THE FRONT...THOUGH.

/16

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS RELATIVELY COOL AND DRY AIRMASS
REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION. A WEAK (AND PRECIP FREE) COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...BRINGING
A REINFORCEMENT OF THE COOL/DRY AIR. MAY SEE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY MORNING...BUT GENERALLY MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. WITH MODEL DATA INDICATING A 8-10 DEGREE
TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREAD TONIGHT...REMOVED THE PATCHY FOG FROM
FCST ZONES (ALTHOUGH VERY ISOLATED PATCHES OF GROUND FOG COULD STILL
BE POSSIBLE). LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S INLAND AND LOW TO
MID 50S COASTAL. HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.
12/DS

[TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT]...500 MB TROUGH IN THE GREAT
LAKES REGION IS CONTRIBUTING MUCH EARLY ON TO THE LARGER WAVENUMBER 5
ENERGY DISTRIBUTION. THE FEATURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND BECOME A
CUTOFF 500 MB LOW STILL MOVING SOUTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT. THEN IT WILL
TURN LEFT OVER THE ATLANTIC RUNNING ALONG THE EAST COAST NORTHEAST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AS WELL...FOLLOWING THE UPPER
FEATURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TUESDAY NIGHT AND DEEPENING AS IT
TURNS IN SIMILAR FASHION MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG THE EAST COAST
WEDNESDAY. 500 MB RIDGE EXITING THE PLAINS STATES WILL DAMPEN SOME
BEFORE REACHING THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BY
THEN WE SHOULD SEE A SURFACE LOW FORMING OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. A LIGHT NORTH WIND WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS. LOWS 4 TO 8 DEGREES
BELOW MONTHLY NORMALS. HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TUESDAY...AND A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY. 77/BD

.LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...THE EURO AND GFS ARE IN
PRETTY CLOSE PHASE THROUGH 96 HRS...THEN PHASING DRIFTS SLIGHTLY
APART THEREAFTER WITH A SLIGHT LAG IN THE GFS...NO MORE THAN ABOUT 2
OR 3 DEGREES OF LONGITUDE. THE THE UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY PASSING US TO THE EAST AND MOVING INTO THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES ON THURSDAY. THAT RIDGE WILL SOON BE FOLLOWED
BY A TROUGH. SEVERAL PERTURBATIONS IN THE 500 MB FLOW WILL TRAVEL
SOUTHEAST OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT WITH MINIMAL
RAIN CHANCES. PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL RARELY GET ABOVE 0.75 INCHES
THROUGH THE PERIOD AND IS INDICATED TO STAY AROUND 0.5 TO 0.6 INCHES
MOST OF THE TIME. THE SURFACE LOW IN THE SOUTHERN GULF WILL MOVE EAST
AS A HIGH REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
NEW 500 MB RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD OVER OUR REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT LATE IN THE PERIOD THE EURO HAS COME INTO PHASE
WITH THE GFS INSOFAR AS HOW THIS GULF LOW EVOLVES AND MOVES EAST...UP
UNTIL ABOUT 96 HOURS INTO THE PROGNOSIS. THEREAFTER THE EURO WANTS TO
KEEP IT SOUTH IN THE CARIBBEAN AND THE GFS TENDS TO SEPARATE THE LOW
INTO TWO...SENDING ONE TO THE BAHAMAS AND KEEPING THE OTHER CENTER
MOVING EAST INTO THE CARIBBEAN. SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR WITH CONTINUED
DRY CONDITIONS. 77/BD

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MARINE AREA LATE TONIGHT
OR EARLY TUESDAY...WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDING OVER THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND NORTH CENTRAL GULF THROUGH LATE
WEEK. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH LATE WEEK AS WELL. THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT
IN A LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND FLOW OVER THE MARINE
AREA THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND. FLOW COULD BECOME
SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST IF THE SOUTHERN GULF LOW
PRESSURE BECOMES MORE ORGANIZED. THE LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH
WILL LIKELY DRIFT EAST INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OR THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN BY THE WEEKEND...AND WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR
DEVELOPMENT...BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE ANY IMPACTS ON THE LOCAL
MARINE AREA AT THIS TIME. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      53  79  55  76  51 /  05  05  05  00  05
PENSACOLA   57  81  56  76  56 /  05  05  05  00  05
DESTIN      65  78  61  75  57 /  05  05  05  00  05
EVERGREEN   47  80  48  74  43 /  05  05  05  00  05
WAYNESBORO  46  80  48  75  43 /  05  00  05  00  05
CAMDEN      48  80  48  73  44 /  05  00  05  00  05
CRESTVIEW   47  81  50  76  45 /  05  05  05  00  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$















000
FXUS64 KMOB 210427 AAC
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE TO AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1130 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...(1000 PM)CURRENT PACKAGE ON TRACK. A RE-ENFORCING FRONT IS
STARTING TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY ATTM AND CROSS
THE FA LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. STILL NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE
WAY OF CLOUDS WITH THIS FRONT...JUST SOME COOLER...DRIER AIR.

/16

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z ISSUANCE...CURRENT CLOUD COVER WELL ABOVE ANY LEVELS THAT MAY
IMPACT ANY OPERATIONS OVER THE FA. A RE-ENFORCING FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO CROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BRINGING A MORE
ORGANIZED NORTHERLY FLOW. AM NOT EXPECTING A STRONG NORTHERLY PUSH
BEHIND THE FRONT...THOUGH.

/16

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS RELATIVELY COOL AND DRY AIRMASS
REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION. A WEAK (AND PRECIP FREE) COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...BRINGING
A REINFORCEMENT OF THE COOL/DRY AIR. MAY SEE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY MORNING...BUT GENERALLY MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. WITH MODEL DATA INDICATING A 8-10 DEGREE
TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREAD TONIGHT...REMOVED THE PATCHY FOG FROM
FCST ZONES (ALTHOUGH VERY ISOLATED PATCHES OF GROUND FOG COULD STILL
BE POSSIBLE). LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S INLAND AND LOW TO
MID 50S COASTAL. HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.
12/DS

[TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT]...500 MB TROUGH IN THE GREAT
LAKES REGION IS CONTRIBUTING MUCH EARLY ON TO THE LARGER WAVENUMBER 5
ENERGY DISTRIBUTION. THE FEATURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND BECOME A
CUTOFF 500 MB LOW STILL MOVING SOUTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT. THEN IT WILL
TURN LEFT OVER THE ATLANTIC RUNNING ALONG THE EAST COAST NORTHEAST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AS WELL...FOLLOWING THE UPPER
FEATURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TUESDAY NIGHT AND DEEPENING AS IT
TURNS IN SIMILAR FASHION MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG THE EAST COAST
WEDNESDAY. 500 MB RIDGE EXITING THE PLAINS STATES WILL DAMPEN SOME
BEFORE REACHING THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BY
THEN WE SHOULD SEE A SURFACE LOW FORMING OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. A LIGHT NORTH WIND WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS. LOWS 4 TO 8 DEGREES
BELOW MONTHLY NORMALS. HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TUESDAY...AND A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY. 77/BD

.LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...THE EURO AND GFS ARE IN
PRETTY CLOSE PHASE THROUGH 96 HRS...THEN PHASING DRIFTS SLIGHTLY
APART THEREAFTER WITH A SLIGHT LAG IN THE GFS...NO MORE THAN ABOUT 2
OR 3 DEGREES OF LONGITUDE. THE THE UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY PASSING US TO THE EAST AND MOVING INTO THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES ON THURSDAY. THAT RIDGE WILL SOON BE FOLLOWED
BY A TROUGH. SEVERAL PERTURBATIONS IN THE 500 MB FLOW WILL TRAVEL
SOUTHEAST OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT WITH MINIMAL
RAIN CHANCES. PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL RARELY GET ABOVE 0.75 INCHES
THROUGH THE PERIOD AND IS INDICATED TO STAY AROUND 0.5 TO 0.6 INCHES
MOST OF THE TIME. THE SURFACE LOW IN THE SOUTHERN GULF WILL MOVE EAST
AS A HIGH REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
NEW 500 MB RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD OVER OUR REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT LATE IN THE PERIOD THE EURO HAS COME INTO PHASE
WITH THE GFS INSOFAR AS HOW THIS GULF LOW EVOLVES AND MOVES EAST...UP
UNTIL ABOUT 96 HOURS INTO THE PROGNOSIS. THEREAFTER THE EURO WANTS TO
KEEP IT SOUTH IN THE CARIBBEAN AND THE GFS TENDS TO SEPARATE THE LOW
INTO TWO...SENDING ONE TO THE BAHAMAS AND KEEPING THE OTHER CENTER
MOVING EAST INTO THE CARIBBEAN. SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR WITH CONTINUED
DRY CONDITIONS. 77/BD

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MARINE AREA LATE TONIGHT
OR EARLY TUESDAY...WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDING OVER THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND NORTH CENTRAL GULF THROUGH LATE
WEEK. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH LATE WEEK AS WELL. THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT
IN A LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND FLOW OVER THE MARINE
AREA THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND. FLOW COULD BECOME
SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST IF THE SOUTHERN GULF LOW
PRESSURE BECOMES MORE ORGANIZED. THE LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH
WILL LIKELY DRIFT EAST INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OR THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN BY THE WEEKEND...AND WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR
DEVELOPMENT...BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE ANY IMPACTS ON THE LOCAL
MARINE AREA AT THIS TIME. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      53  79  55  76  51 /  05  05  05  00  05
PENSACOLA   57  81  56  76  56 /  05  05  05  00  05
DESTIN      65  78  61  75  57 /  05  05  05  00  05
EVERGREEN   47  80  48  74  43 /  05  05  05  00  05
WAYNESBORO  46  80  48  75  43 /  05  00  05  00  05
CAMDEN      48  80  48  73  44 /  05  00  05  00  05
CRESTVIEW   47  81  50  76  45 /  05  05  05  00  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$
















000
FXUS64 KMOB 210308 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1000 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...CURRENT PACKAGE ON TRACK. A RE-ENFORCING FRONT IS STARTING
TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY ATTM AND CROSS THE FA
LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. STILL NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
CLOUDS WITH THIS FRONT...JUST SOME COOLER...DRIER AIR.

/16

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z ISSUANCE...CURRENT CLOUD COVER WELL ABOVE ANY LEVELS THAT MAY
IMPACT ANY OPERATIONS OVER THE FA. A RE-ENFORCING FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO CROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BRINGING A MORE
ORGANIZED NORTHERLY FLOW. AM NOT EXPECTING A STRONG NORTHERLY PUSH
BEHIND THE FRONT...THOUGH.

/16
&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS RELATIVELY COOL AND DRY AIRMASS
REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION. A WEAK (AND PRECIP FREE) COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...BRINGING
A REINFORCEMENT OF THE COOL/DRY AIR. MAY SEE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY MORNING...BUT GENERALLY MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. WITH MODEL DATA INDICATING A 8-10 DEGREE
TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREAD TONIGHT...REMOVED THE PATCHY FOG FROM
FCST ZONES (ALTHOUGH VERY ISOLATED PATCHES OF GROUND FOG COULD STILL
BE POSSIBLE). LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S INLAND AND LOW TO
MID 50S COASTAL. HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.
12/DS

[TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT]...500 MB TROUGH IN THE GREAT
LAKES REGION IS CONTRIBUTING MUCH EARLY ON TO THE LARGER WAVENUMBER 5
ENERGY DISTRIBUTION. THE FEATURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND BECOME A
CUTOFF 500 MB LOW STILL MOVING SOUTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT. THEN IT WILL
TURN LEFT OVER THE ATLANTIC RUNNING ALONG THE EAST COAST NORTHEAST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AS WELL...FOLLOWING THE UPPER
FEATURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TUESDAY NIGHT AND DEEPENING AS IT
TURNS IN SIMILAR FASHION MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG THE EAST COAST
WEDNESDAY. 500 MB RIDGE EXITING THE PLAINS STATES WILL DAMPEN SOME
BEFORE REACHING THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BY
THEN WE SHOULD SEE A SURFACE LOW FORMING OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. A LIGHT NORTH WIND WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS. LOWS 4 TO 8 DEGREES
BELOW MONTHLY NORMALS. HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TUESDAY...AND A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY. 77/BD

.LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...THE EURO AND GFS ARE IN
PRETTY CLOSE PHASE THROUGH 96 HRS...THEN PHASING DRIFTS SLIGHTLY
APART THEREAFTER WITH A SLIGHT LAG IN THE GFS...NO MORE THAN ABOUT 2
OR 3 DEGREES OF LONGITUDE. THE THE UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY PASSING US TO THE EAST AND MOVING INTO THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES ON THURSDAY. THAT RIDGE WILL SOON BE FOLLOWED
BY A TROUGH. SEVERAL PERTURBATIONS IN THE 500 MB FLOW WILL TRAVEL
SOUTHEAST OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT WITH MINIMAL
RAIN CHANCES. PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL RARELY GET ABOVE 0.75 INCHES
THROUGH THE PERIOD AND IS INDICATED TO STAY AROUND 0.5 TO 0.6 INCHES
MOST OF THE TIME. THE SURFACE LOW IN THE SOUTHERN GULF WILL MOVE EAST
AS A HIGH REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
NEW 500 MB RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD OVER OUR REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT LATE IN THE PERIOD THE EURO HAS COME INTO PHASE
WITH THE GFS INSOFAR AS HOW THIS GULF LOW EVOLVES AND MOVES EAST...UP
UNTIL ABOUT 96 HOURS INTO THE PROGNOSIS. THEREAFTER THE EURO WANTS TO
KEEP IT SOUTH IN THE CARIBBEAN AND THE GFS TENDS TO SEPARATE THE LOW
INTO TWO...SENDING ONE TO THE BAHAMAS AND KEEPING THE OTHER CENTER
MOVING EAST INTO THE CARIBBEAN. SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR WITH CONTINUED
DRY CONDITIONS. 77/BD

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MARINE AREA LATE TONIGHT
OR EARLY TUESDAY...WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDING OVER THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND NORTH CENTRAL GULF THROUGH LATE
WEEK. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH LATE WEEK AS WELL. THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT
IN A LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND FLOW OVER THE MARINE
AREA THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND. FLOW COULD BECOME
SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST IF THE SOUTHERN GULF LOW
PRESSURE BECOMES MORE ORGANIZED. THE LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH
WILL LIKELY DRIFT EAST INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OR THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN BY THE WEEKEND...AND WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR
DEVELOPMENT...BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE ANY IMPACTS ON THE LOCAL
MARINE AREA AT THIS TIME. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      53  79  55  76  51 /  05  05  05  00  05
PENSACOLA   57  81  56  76  56 /  05  05  05  00  05
DESTIN      65  78  61  75  57 /  05  05  05  00  05
EVERGREEN   47  80  48  74  43 /  05  05  05  00  05
WAYNESBORO  46  80  48  75  43 /  05  00  05  00  05
CAMDEN      48  80  48  73  44 /  05  00  05  00  05
CRESTVIEW   47  81  50  76  45 /  05  05  05  00  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$












000
FXUS64 KMOB 210308 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1000 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...CURRENT PACKAGE ON TRACK. A RE-ENFORCING FRONT IS STARTING
TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY ATTM AND CROSS THE FA
LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. STILL NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
CLOUDS WITH THIS FRONT...JUST SOME COOLER...DRIER AIR.

/16

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z ISSUANCE...CURRENT CLOUD COVER WELL ABOVE ANY LEVELS THAT MAY
IMPACT ANY OPERATIONS OVER THE FA. A RE-ENFORCING FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO CROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BRINGING A MORE
ORGANIZED NORTHERLY FLOW. AM NOT EXPECTING A STRONG NORTHERLY PUSH
BEHIND THE FRONT...THOUGH.

/16
&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS RELATIVELY COOL AND DRY AIRMASS
REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION. A WEAK (AND PRECIP FREE) COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...BRINGING
A REINFORCEMENT OF THE COOL/DRY AIR. MAY SEE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY MORNING...BUT GENERALLY MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. WITH MODEL DATA INDICATING A 8-10 DEGREE
TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREAD TONIGHT...REMOVED THE PATCHY FOG FROM
FCST ZONES (ALTHOUGH VERY ISOLATED PATCHES OF GROUND FOG COULD STILL
BE POSSIBLE). LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S INLAND AND LOW TO
MID 50S COASTAL. HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.
12/DS

[TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT]...500 MB TROUGH IN THE GREAT
LAKES REGION IS CONTRIBUTING MUCH EARLY ON TO THE LARGER WAVENUMBER 5
ENERGY DISTRIBUTION. THE FEATURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND BECOME A
CUTOFF 500 MB LOW STILL MOVING SOUTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT. THEN IT WILL
TURN LEFT OVER THE ATLANTIC RUNNING ALONG THE EAST COAST NORTHEAST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AS WELL...FOLLOWING THE UPPER
FEATURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TUESDAY NIGHT AND DEEPENING AS IT
TURNS IN SIMILAR FASHION MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG THE EAST COAST
WEDNESDAY. 500 MB RIDGE EXITING THE PLAINS STATES WILL DAMPEN SOME
BEFORE REACHING THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BY
THEN WE SHOULD SEE A SURFACE LOW FORMING OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. A LIGHT NORTH WIND WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS. LOWS 4 TO 8 DEGREES
BELOW MONTHLY NORMALS. HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TUESDAY...AND A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY. 77/BD

.LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...THE EURO AND GFS ARE IN
PRETTY CLOSE PHASE THROUGH 96 HRS...THEN PHASING DRIFTS SLIGHTLY
APART THEREAFTER WITH A SLIGHT LAG IN THE GFS...NO MORE THAN ABOUT 2
OR 3 DEGREES OF LONGITUDE. THE THE UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY PASSING US TO THE EAST AND MOVING INTO THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES ON THURSDAY. THAT RIDGE WILL SOON BE FOLLOWED
BY A TROUGH. SEVERAL PERTURBATIONS IN THE 500 MB FLOW WILL TRAVEL
SOUTHEAST OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT WITH MINIMAL
RAIN CHANCES. PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL RARELY GET ABOVE 0.75 INCHES
THROUGH THE PERIOD AND IS INDICATED TO STAY AROUND 0.5 TO 0.6 INCHES
MOST OF THE TIME. THE SURFACE LOW IN THE SOUTHERN GULF WILL MOVE EAST
AS A HIGH REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
NEW 500 MB RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD OVER OUR REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT LATE IN THE PERIOD THE EURO HAS COME INTO PHASE
WITH THE GFS INSOFAR AS HOW THIS GULF LOW EVOLVES AND MOVES EAST...UP
UNTIL ABOUT 96 HOURS INTO THE PROGNOSIS. THEREAFTER THE EURO WANTS TO
KEEP IT SOUTH IN THE CARIBBEAN AND THE GFS TENDS TO SEPARATE THE LOW
INTO TWO...SENDING ONE TO THE BAHAMAS AND KEEPING THE OTHER CENTER
MOVING EAST INTO THE CARIBBEAN. SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR WITH CONTINUED
DRY CONDITIONS. 77/BD

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MARINE AREA LATE TONIGHT
OR EARLY TUESDAY...WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDING OVER THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND NORTH CENTRAL GULF THROUGH LATE
WEEK. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH LATE WEEK AS WELL. THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT
IN A LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND FLOW OVER THE MARINE
AREA THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND. FLOW COULD BECOME
SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST IF THE SOUTHERN GULF LOW
PRESSURE BECOMES MORE ORGANIZED. THE LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH
WILL LIKELY DRIFT EAST INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OR THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN BY THE WEEKEND...AND WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR
DEVELOPMENT...BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE ANY IMPACTS ON THE LOCAL
MARINE AREA AT THIS TIME. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      53  79  55  76  51 /  05  05  05  00  05
PENSACOLA   57  81  56  76  56 /  05  05  05  00  05
DESTIN      65  78  61  75  57 /  05  05  05  00  05
EVERGREEN   47  80  48  74  43 /  05  05  05  00  05
WAYNESBORO  46  80  48  75  43 /  05  00  05  00  05
CAMDEN      48  80  48  73  44 /  05  00  05  00  05
CRESTVIEW   47  81  50  76  45 /  05  05  05  00  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$













000
FXUS64 KMOB 210308 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1000 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...CURRENT PACKAGE ON TRACK. A RE-ENFORCING FRONT IS STARTING
TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY ATTM AND CROSS THE FA
LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. STILL NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
CLOUDS WITH THIS FRONT...JUST SOME COOLER...DRIER AIR.

/16

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z ISSUANCE...CURRENT CLOUD COVER WELL ABOVE ANY LEVELS THAT MAY
IMPACT ANY OPERATIONS OVER THE FA. A RE-ENFORCING FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO CROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BRINGING A MORE
ORGANIZED NORTHERLY FLOW. AM NOT EXPECTING A STRONG NORTHERLY PUSH
BEHIND THE FRONT...THOUGH.

/16
&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS RELATIVELY COOL AND DRY AIRMASS
REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION. A WEAK (AND PRECIP FREE) COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...BRINGING
A REINFORCEMENT OF THE COOL/DRY AIR. MAY SEE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY MORNING...BUT GENERALLY MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. WITH MODEL DATA INDICATING A 8-10 DEGREE
TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREAD TONIGHT...REMOVED THE PATCHY FOG FROM
FCST ZONES (ALTHOUGH VERY ISOLATED PATCHES OF GROUND FOG COULD STILL
BE POSSIBLE). LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S INLAND AND LOW TO
MID 50S COASTAL. HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.
12/DS

[TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT]...500 MB TROUGH IN THE GREAT
LAKES REGION IS CONTRIBUTING MUCH EARLY ON TO THE LARGER WAVENUMBER 5
ENERGY DISTRIBUTION. THE FEATURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND BECOME A
CUTOFF 500 MB LOW STILL MOVING SOUTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT. THEN IT WILL
TURN LEFT OVER THE ATLANTIC RUNNING ALONG THE EAST COAST NORTHEAST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AS WELL...FOLLOWING THE UPPER
FEATURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TUESDAY NIGHT AND DEEPENING AS IT
TURNS IN SIMILAR FASHION MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG THE EAST COAST
WEDNESDAY. 500 MB RIDGE EXITING THE PLAINS STATES WILL DAMPEN SOME
BEFORE REACHING THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BY
THEN WE SHOULD SEE A SURFACE LOW FORMING OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. A LIGHT NORTH WIND WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS. LOWS 4 TO 8 DEGREES
BELOW MONTHLY NORMALS. HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TUESDAY...AND A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY. 77/BD

.LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...THE EURO AND GFS ARE IN
PRETTY CLOSE PHASE THROUGH 96 HRS...THEN PHASING DRIFTS SLIGHTLY
APART THEREAFTER WITH A SLIGHT LAG IN THE GFS...NO MORE THAN ABOUT 2
OR 3 DEGREES OF LONGITUDE. THE THE UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY PASSING US TO THE EAST AND MOVING INTO THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES ON THURSDAY. THAT RIDGE WILL SOON BE FOLLOWED
BY A TROUGH. SEVERAL PERTURBATIONS IN THE 500 MB FLOW WILL TRAVEL
SOUTHEAST OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT WITH MINIMAL
RAIN CHANCES. PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL RARELY GET ABOVE 0.75 INCHES
THROUGH THE PERIOD AND IS INDICATED TO STAY AROUND 0.5 TO 0.6 INCHES
MOST OF THE TIME. THE SURFACE LOW IN THE SOUTHERN GULF WILL MOVE EAST
AS A HIGH REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
NEW 500 MB RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD OVER OUR REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT LATE IN THE PERIOD THE EURO HAS COME INTO PHASE
WITH THE GFS INSOFAR AS HOW THIS GULF LOW EVOLVES AND MOVES EAST...UP
UNTIL ABOUT 96 HOURS INTO THE PROGNOSIS. THEREAFTER THE EURO WANTS TO
KEEP IT SOUTH IN THE CARIBBEAN AND THE GFS TENDS TO SEPARATE THE LOW
INTO TWO...SENDING ONE TO THE BAHAMAS AND KEEPING THE OTHER CENTER
MOVING EAST INTO THE CARIBBEAN. SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR WITH CONTINUED
DRY CONDITIONS. 77/BD

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MARINE AREA LATE TONIGHT
OR EARLY TUESDAY...WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDING OVER THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND NORTH CENTRAL GULF THROUGH LATE
WEEK. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH LATE WEEK AS WELL. THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT
IN A LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND FLOW OVER THE MARINE
AREA THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND. FLOW COULD BECOME
SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST IF THE SOUTHERN GULF LOW
PRESSURE BECOMES MORE ORGANIZED. THE LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH
WILL LIKELY DRIFT EAST INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OR THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN BY THE WEEKEND...AND WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR
DEVELOPMENT...BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE ANY IMPACTS ON THE LOCAL
MARINE AREA AT THIS TIME. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      53  79  55  76  51 /  05  05  05  00  05
PENSACOLA   57  81  56  76  56 /  05  05  05  00  05
DESTIN      65  78  61  75  57 /  05  05  05  00  05
EVERGREEN   47  80  48  74  43 /  05  05  05  00  05
WAYNESBORO  46  80  48  75  43 /  05  00  05  00  05
CAMDEN      48  80  48  73  44 /  05  00  05  00  05
CRESTVIEW   47  81  50  76  45 /  05  05  05  00  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$












000
FXUS64 KMOB 210308 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1000 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...CURRENT PACKAGE ON TRACK. A RE-ENFORCING FRONT IS STARTING
TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY ATTM AND CROSS THE FA
LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. STILL NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
CLOUDS WITH THIS FRONT...JUST SOME COOLER...DRIER AIR.

/16

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z ISSUANCE...CURRENT CLOUD COVER WELL ABOVE ANY LEVELS THAT MAY
IMPACT ANY OPERATIONS OVER THE FA. A RE-ENFORCING FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO CROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BRINGING A MORE
ORGANIZED NORTHERLY FLOW. AM NOT EXPECTING A STRONG NORTHERLY PUSH
BEHIND THE FRONT...THOUGH.

/16
&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS RELATIVELY COOL AND DRY AIRMASS
REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION. A WEAK (AND PRECIP FREE) COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...BRINGING
A REINFORCEMENT OF THE COOL/DRY AIR. MAY SEE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY MORNING...BUT GENERALLY MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. WITH MODEL DATA INDICATING A 8-10 DEGREE
TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREAD TONIGHT...REMOVED THE PATCHY FOG FROM
FCST ZONES (ALTHOUGH VERY ISOLATED PATCHES OF GROUND FOG COULD STILL
BE POSSIBLE). LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S INLAND AND LOW TO
MID 50S COASTAL. HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.
12/DS

[TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT]...500 MB TROUGH IN THE GREAT
LAKES REGION IS CONTRIBUTING MUCH EARLY ON TO THE LARGER WAVENUMBER 5
ENERGY DISTRIBUTION. THE FEATURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND BECOME A
CUTOFF 500 MB LOW STILL MOVING SOUTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT. THEN IT WILL
TURN LEFT OVER THE ATLANTIC RUNNING ALONG THE EAST COAST NORTHEAST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AS WELL...FOLLOWING THE UPPER
FEATURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TUESDAY NIGHT AND DEEPENING AS IT
TURNS IN SIMILAR FASHION MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG THE EAST COAST
WEDNESDAY. 500 MB RIDGE EXITING THE PLAINS STATES WILL DAMPEN SOME
BEFORE REACHING THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BY
THEN WE SHOULD SEE A SURFACE LOW FORMING OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. A LIGHT NORTH WIND WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS. LOWS 4 TO 8 DEGREES
BELOW MONTHLY NORMALS. HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TUESDAY...AND A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY. 77/BD

.LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...THE EURO AND GFS ARE IN
PRETTY CLOSE PHASE THROUGH 96 HRS...THEN PHASING DRIFTS SLIGHTLY
APART THEREAFTER WITH A SLIGHT LAG IN THE GFS...NO MORE THAN ABOUT 2
OR 3 DEGREES OF LONGITUDE. THE THE UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY PASSING US TO THE EAST AND MOVING INTO THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES ON THURSDAY. THAT RIDGE WILL SOON BE FOLLOWED
BY A TROUGH. SEVERAL PERTURBATIONS IN THE 500 MB FLOW WILL TRAVEL
SOUTHEAST OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT WITH MINIMAL
RAIN CHANCES. PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL RARELY GET ABOVE 0.75 INCHES
THROUGH THE PERIOD AND IS INDICATED TO STAY AROUND 0.5 TO 0.6 INCHES
MOST OF THE TIME. THE SURFACE LOW IN THE SOUTHERN GULF WILL MOVE EAST
AS A HIGH REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
NEW 500 MB RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD OVER OUR REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT LATE IN THE PERIOD THE EURO HAS COME INTO PHASE
WITH THE GFS INSOFAR AS HOW THIS GULF LOW EVOLVES AND MOVES EAST...UP
UNTIL ABOUT 96 HOURS INTO THE PROGNOSIS. THEREAFTER THE EURO WANTS TO
KEEP IT SOUTH IN THE CARIBBEAN AND THE GFS TENDS TO SEPARATE THE LOW
INTO TWO...SENDING ONE TO THE BAHAMAS AND KEEPING THE OTHER CENTER
MOVING EAST INTO THE CARIBBEAN. SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR WITH CONTINUED
DRY CONDITIONS. 77/BD

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MARINE AREA LATE TONIGHT
OR EARLY TUESDAY...WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDING OVER THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND NORTH CENTRAL GULF THROUGH LATE
WEEK. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH LATE WEEK AS WELL. THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT
IN A LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND FLOW OVER THE MARINE
AREA THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND. FLOW COULD BECOME
SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST IF THE SOUTHERN GULF LOW
PRESSURE BECOMES MORE ORGANIZED. THE LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH
WILL LIKELY DRIFT EAST INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OR THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN BY THE WEEKEND...AND WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR
DEVELOPMENT...BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE ANY IMPACTS ON THE LOCAL
MARINE AREA AT THIS TIME. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      53  79  55  76  51 /  05  05  05  00  05
PENSACOLA   57  81  56  76  56 /  05  05  05  00  05
DESTIN      65  78  61  75  57 /  05  05  05  00  05
EVERGREEN   47  80  48  74  43 /  05  05  05  00  05
WAYNESBORO  46  80  48  75  43 /  05  00  05  00  05
CAMDEN      48  80  48  73  44 /  05  00  05  00  05
CRESTVIEW   47  81  50  76  45 /  05  05  05  00  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$













000
FXUS64 KMOB 202325 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE TO AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
620 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
00Z ISSUANCE...CURRENT CLOUD COVER WELL ABOVE ANY LEVELS THAT MAY
IMPACT ANY OPERATIONS OVER THE FA. A RE-ENFORCING FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO CROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BRINGING A MORE
ORGANIZED NORTHERLY FLOW. AM NOT EXPECTING A STRONG NORTHERLY PUSH
BEHIND THE FRONT...THOUGH.

/16
&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS RELATIVELY COOL AND DRY AIRMASS
REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION. A WEAK (AND PRECIP FREE) COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...BRINGING
A REINFORCEMENT OF THE COOL/DRY AIR. MAY SEE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY MORNING...BUT GENERALLY MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. WITH MODEL DATA INDICATING A 8-10 DEGREE
TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREAD TONIGHT...REMOVED THE PATCHY FOG FROM
FCST ZONES (ALTHOUGH VERY ISOLATED PATCHES OF GROUND FOG COULD STILL
BE POSSIBLE). LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S INLAND AND LOW TO
MID 50S COASTAL. HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.
12/DS

[TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT]...500 MB TROUGH IN THE GREAT
LAKES REGION IS CONTRIBUTING MUCH EARLY ON TO THE LARGER WAVENUMBER 5
ENERGY DISTRIBUTION. THE FEATURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND BECOME A
CUTOFF 500 MB LOW STILL MOVING SOUTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT. THEN IT WILL
TURN LEFT OVER THE ATLANTIC RUNNING ALONG THE EAST COAST NORTHEAST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AS WELL...FOLLOWING THE UPPER
FEATURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TUESDAY NIGHT AND DEEPENING AS IT
TURNS IN SIMILAR FASHION MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG THE EAST COAST
WEDNESDAY. 500 MB RIDGE EXITING THE PLAINS STATES WILL DAMPEN SOME
BEFORE REACHING THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BY
THEN WE SHOULD SEE A SURFACE LOW FORMING OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. A LIGHT NORTH WIND WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS. LOWS 4 TO 8 DEGREES
BELOW MONTHLY NORMALS. HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TUESDAY...AND A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY. 77/BD

.LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...THE EURO AND GFS ARE IN
PRETTY CLOSE PHASE THROUGH 96 HRS...THEN PHASING DRIFTS SLIGHTLY
APART THEREAFTER WITH A SLIGHT LAG IN THE GFS...NO MORE THAN ABOUT 2
OR 3 DEGREES OF LONGITUDE. THE THE UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY PASSING US TO THE EAST AND MOVING INTO THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES ON THURSDAY. THAT RIDGE WILL SOON BE FOLLOWED
BY A TROUGH. SEVERAL PERTURBATIONS IN THE 500 MB FLOW WILL TRAVEL
SOUTHEAST OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT WITH MINIMAL
RAIN CHANCES. PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL RARELY GET ABOVE 0.75 INCHES
THROUGH THE PERIOD AND IS INDICATED TO STAY AROUND 0.5 TO 0.6 INCHES
MOST OF THE TIME. THE SURFACE LOW IN THE SOUTHERN GULF WILL MOVE EAST
AS A HIGH REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
NEW 500 MB RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD OVER OUR REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT LATE IN THE PERIOD THE EURO HAS COME INTO PHASE
WITH THE GFS INSOFAR AS HOW THIS GULF LOW EVOLVES AND MOVES EAST...UP
UNTIL ABOUT 96 HOURS INTO THE PROGNOSIS. THEREAFTER THE EURO WANTS TO
KEEP IT SOUTH IN THE CARIBBEAN AND THE GFS TENDS TO SEPARATE THE LOW
INTO TWO...SENDING ONE TO THE BAHAMAS AND KEEPING THE OTHER CENTER
MOVING EAST INTO THE CARIBBEAN. SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR WITH CONTINUED
DRY CONDITIONS. 77/BD

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MARINE AREA LATE TONIGHT
OR EARLY TUESDAY...WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDING OVER THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND NORTH CENTRAL GULF THROUGH LATE
WEEK. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH LATE WEEK AS WELL. THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT
IN A LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND FLOW OVER THE MARINE
AREA THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND. FLOW COULD BECOME
SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST IF THE SOUTHERN GULF LOW
PRESSURE BECOMES MORE ORGANIZED. THE LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH
WILL LIKELY DRIFT EAST INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OR THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN BY THE WEEKEND...AND WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR
DEVELOPMENT...BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE ANY IMPACTS ON THE LOCAL
MARINE AREA AT THIS TIME. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      53  79  55  76  51 /  05  05  05  00  05
PENSACOLA   57  81  56  76  56 /  05  05  05  00  05
DESTIN      65  78  61  75  57 /  05  05  05  00  05
EVERGREEN   47  80  48  74  43 /  05  05  05  00  05
WAYNESBORO  46  80  48  75  43 /  05  00  05  00  05
CAMDEN      48  80  48  73  44 /  05  00  05  00  05
CRESTVIEW   47  81  50  76  45 /  05  05  05  00  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KMOB 202325 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE TO AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
620 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
00Z ISSUANCE...CURRENT CLOUD COVER WELL ABOVE ANY LEVELS THAT MAY
IMPACT ANY OPERATIONS OVER THE FA. A RE-ENFORCING FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO CROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BRINGING A MORE
ORGANIZED NORTHERLY FLOW. AM NOT EXPECTING A STRONG NORTHERLY PUSH
BEHIND THE FRONT...THOUGH.

/16
&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS RELATIVELY COOL AND DRY AIRMASS
REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION. A WEAK (AND PRECIP FREE) COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...BRINGING
A REINFORCEMENT OF THE COOL/DRY AIR. MAY SEE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY MORNING...BUT GENERALLY MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. WITH MODEL DATA INDICATING A 8-10 DEGREE
TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREAD TONIGHT...REMOVED THE PATCHY FOG FROM
FCST ZONES (ALTHOUGH VERY ISOLATED PATCHES OF GROUND FOG COULD STILL
BE POSSIBLE). LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S INLAND AND LOW TO
MID 50S COASTAL. HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.
12/DS

[TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT]...500 MB TROUGH IN THE GREAT
LAKES REGION IS CONTRIBUTING MUCH EARLY ON TO THE LARGER WAVENUMBER 5
ENERGY DISTRIBUTION. THE FEATURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND BECOME A
CUTOFF 500 MB LOW STILL MOVING SOUTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT. THEN IT WILL
TURN LEFT OVER THE ATLANTIC RUNNING ALONG THE EAST COAST NORTHEAST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AS WELL...FOLLOWING THE UPPER
FEATURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TUESDAY NIGHT AND DEEPENING AS IT
TURNS IN SIMILAR FASHION MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG THE EAST COAST
WEDNESDAY. 500 MB RIDGE EXITING THE PLAINS STATES WILL DAMPEN SOME
BEFORE REACHING THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BY
THEN WE SHOULD SEE A SURFACE LOW FORMING OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. A LIGHT NORTH WIND WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS. LOWS 4 TO 8 DEGREES
BELOW MONTHLY NORMALS. HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TUESDAY...AND A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY. 77/BD

.LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...THE EURO AND GFS ARE IN
PRETTY CLOSE PHASE THROUGH 96 HRS...THEN PHASING DRIFTS SLIGHTLY
APART THEREAFTER WITH A SLIGHT LAG IN THE GFS...NO MORE THAN ABOUT 2
OR 3 DEGREES OF LONGITUDE. THE THE UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY PASSING US TO THE EAST AND MOVING INTO THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES ON THURSDAY. THAT RIDGE WILL SOON BE FOLLOWED
BY A TROUGH. SEVERAL PERTURBATIONS IN THE 500 MB FLOW WILL TRAVEL
SOUTHEAST OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT WITH MINIMAL
RAIN CHANCES. PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL RARELY GET ABOVE 0.75 INCHES
THROUGH THE PERIOD AND IS INDICATED TO STAY AROUND 0.5 TO 0.6 INCHES
MOST OF THE TIME. THE SURFACE LOW IN THE SOUTHERN GULF WILL MOVE EAST
AS A HIGH REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
NEW 500 MB RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD OVER OUR REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT LATE IN THE PERIOD THE EURO HAS COME INTO PHASE
WITH THE GFS INSOFAR AS HOW THIS GULF LOW EVOLVES AND MOVES EAST...UP
UNTIL ABOUT 96 HOURS INTO THE PROGNOSIS. THEREAFTER THE EURO WANTS TO
KEEP IT SOUTH IN THE CARIBBEAN AND THE GFS TENDS TO SEPARATE THE LOW
INTO TWO...SENDING ONE TO THE BAHAMAS AND KEEPING THE OTHER CENTER
MOVING EAST INTO THE CARIBBEAN. SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR WITH CONTINUED
DRY CONDITIONS. 77/BD

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MARINE AREA LATE TONIGHT
OR EARLY TUESDAY...WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDING OVER THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND NORTH CENTRAL GULF THROUGH LATE
WEEK. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH LATE WEEK AS WELL. THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT
IN A LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND FLOW OVER THE MARINE
AREA THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND. FLOW COULD BECOME
SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST IF THE SOUTHERN GULF LOW
PRESSURE BECOMES MORE ORGANIZED. THE LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH
WILL LIKELY DRIFT EAST INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OR THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN BY THE WEEKEND...AND WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR
DEVELOPMENT...BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE ANY IMPACTS ON THE LOCAL
MARINE AREA AT THIS TIME. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      53  79  55  76  51 /  05  05  05  00  05
PENSACOLA   57  81  56  76  56 /  05  05  05  00  05
DESTIN      65  78  61  75  57 /  05  05  05  00  05
EVERGREEN   47  80  48  74  43 /  05  05  05  00  05
WAYNESBORO  46  80  48  75  43 /  05  00  05  00  05
CAMDEN      48  80  48  73  44 /  05  00  05  00  05
CRESTVIEW   47  81  50  76  45 /  05  05  05  00  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMOB 202121 CCA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
418 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS RELATIVELY COOL AND DRY AIRMASS
REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION. A WEAK (AND PRECIP FREE) COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...BRINGING
A REINFORCEMENT OF THE COOL/DRY AIR. MAY SEE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY MORNING...BUT GENERALLY MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. WITH MODEL DATA INDICATING A 8-10 DEGREE
TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREAD TONIGHT...REMOVED THE PATCHY FOG FROM
FCST ZONES (ALTHOUGH VERY ISOLATED PATCHES OF GROUND FOG COULD STILL
BE POSSIBLE). LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S INLAND AND LOW TO
MID 50S COASTAL. HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.
12/DS

[TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT]...500 MB TROUGH IN THE GREAT
LAKES REGION IS CONTRIBUTING MUCH EARLY ON TO THE LARGER WAVENUMBER 5
ENERGY DISTRIBUTION. THE FEATURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND BECOME A
CUTOFF 500 MB LOW STILL MOVING SOUTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT. THEN IT WILL
TURN LEFT OVER THE ATLANTIC RUNNING ALONG THE EAST COAST NORTHEAST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AS WELL...FOLLOWING THE UPPER
FEATURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TUESDAY NIGHT AND DEEPENING AS IT
TURNS IN SIMILAR FASHION MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG THE EAST COAST
WEDNESDAY. 500 MB RIDGE EXITING THE PLAINS STATES WILL DAMPEN SOME
BEFORE REACHING THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BY
THEN WE SHOULD SEE A SURFACE LOW FORMING OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. A LIGHT NORTH WIND WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS. LOWS 4 TO 8 DEGREES
BELOW MONTHLY NORMALS. HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TUESDAY...AND A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY. 77/BD

.LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...THE EURO AND GFS ARE IN
PRETTY CLOSE PHASE THROUGH 96 HRS...THEN PHASING DRIFTS SLIGHTLY
APART THEREAFTER WITH A SLIGHT LAG IN THE GFS...NO MORE THAN ABOUT 2
OR 3 DEGREES OF LONGITUDE. THE THE UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY PASSING US TO THE EAST AND MOVING INTO THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES ON THURSDAY. THAT RIDGE WILL SOON BE FOLLOWED
BY A TROUGH. SEVERAL PERTURBATIONS IN THE 500 MB FLOW WILL TRAVEL
SOUTHEAST OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT WITH MINIMAL
RAIN CHANCES. PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL RARELY GET ABOVE 0.75 INCHES
THROUGH THE PERIOD AND IS INDICATED TO STAY AROUND 0.5 TO 0.6 INCHES
MOST OF THE TIME. THE SURFACE LOW IN THE SOUTHERN GULF WILL MOVE EAST
AS A HIGH REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
NEW 500 MB RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD OVER OUR REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT LATE IN THE PERIOD THE EURO HAS COME INTO PHASE
WITH THE GFS INSOFAR AS HOW THIS GULF LOW EVOLVES AND MOVES EAST...UP
UNTIL ABOUT 96 HOURS INTO THE PROGNOSIS. THEREAFTER THE EURO WANTS TO
KEEP IT SOUTH IN THE CARIBBEAN AND THE GFS TENDS TO SEPARATE THE LOW
INTO TWO...SENDING ONE TO THE BAHAMAS AND KEEPING THE OTHER CENTER
MOVING EAST INTO THE CARIBBEAN. SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR WITH CONTINUED
DRY CONDITIONS. 77/BD

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MARINE AREA LATE TONIGHT
OR EARLY TUESDAY...WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDING OVER THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND NORTH CENTRAL GULF THROUGH LATE
WEEK. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH LATE WEEK AS WELL. THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT
IN A LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND FLOW OVER THE MARINE
AREA THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND. FLOW COULD BECOME
SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST IF THE SOUTHERN GULF LOW
PRESSURE BECOMES MORE ORGANIZED. THE LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH
WILL LIKELY DRIFT EAST INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OR THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN BY THE WEEKEND...AND WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR
DEVELOPMENT...BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE ANY IMPACTS ON THE LOCAL
MARINE AREA AT THIS TIME. 12/DS

&&

.AVIATION...
20.18Z TAF ISSUANCE...
FEW TO SCATTERED THIN HIGH CLOUDS TODAY AND THIS EVENING. NO CIGS
EXPECTED. VERY ISOLATED PATCHY LIGHT GROUND FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
REGION...BUT NO RESTRICTION TO VISBYS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY
NORTH AT 3 TO 5 KNOTS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHIFTING SOUTH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THEN BECOMING LIGHT VARIABLE OR NORTHERLY AGAIN OVERNIGHT.
VFR CONDITIONS. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      53  79  55  76  51 /  05  05  05  00  05
PENSACOLA   57  81  56  76  56 /  05  05  05  00  05
DESTIN      65  78  61  75  57 /  05  05  05  00  05
EVERGREEN   47  80  48  74  43 /  05  05  05  00  05
WAYNESBORO  46  80  48  75  43 /  05  00  05  00  05
CAMDEN      48  80  48  73  44 /  05  00  05  00  05
CRESTVIEW   47  81  50  76  45 /  05  05  05  00  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$














000
FXUS64 KMOB 202121 CCA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
418 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS RELATIVELY COOL AND DRY AIRMASS
REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION. A WEAK (AND PRECIP FREE) COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...BRINGING
A REINFORCEMENT OF THE COOL/DRY AIR. MAY SEE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY MORNING...BUT GENERALLY MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. WITH MODEL DATA INDICATING A 8-10 DEGREE
TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREAD TONIGHT...REMOVED THE PATCHY FOG FROM
FCST ZONES (ALTHOUGH VERY ISOLATED PATCHES OF GROUND FOG COULD STILL
BE POSSIBLE). LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S INLAND AND LOW TO
MID 50S COASTAL. HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.
12/DS

[TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT]...500 MB TROUGH IN THE GREAT
LAKES REGION IS CONTRIBUTING MUCH EARLY ON TO THE LARGER WAVENUMBER 5
ENERGY DISTRIBUTION. THE FEATURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND BECOME A
CUTOFF 500 MB LOW STILL MOVING SOUTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT. THEN IT WILL
TURN LEFT OVER THE ATLANTIC RUNNING ALONG THE EAST COAST NORTHEAST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AS WELL...FOLLOWING THE UPPER
FEATURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TUESDAY NIGHT AND DEEPENING AS IT
TURNS IN SIMILAR FASHION MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG THE EAST COAST
WEDNESDAY. 500 MB RIDGE EXITING THE PLAINS STATES WILL DAMPEN SOME
BEFORE REACHING THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BY
THEN WE SHOULD SEE A SURFACE LOW FORMING OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. A LIGHT NORTH WIND WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS. LOWS 4 TO 8 DEGREES
BELOW MONTHLY NORMALS. HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TUESDAY...AND A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY. 77/BD

.LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...THE EURO AND GFS ARE IN
PRETTY CLOSE PHASE THROUGH 96 HRS...THEN PHASING DRIFTS SLIGHTLY
APART THEREAFTER WITH A SLIGHT LAG IN THE GFS...NO MORE THAN ABOUT 2
OR 3 DEGREES OF LONGITUDE. THE THE UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY PASSING US TO THE EAST AND MOVING INTO THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES ON THURSDAY. THAT RIDGE WILL SOON BE FOLLOWED
BY A TROUGH. SEVERAL PERTURBATIONS IN THE 500 MB FLOW WILL TRAVEL
SOUTHEAST OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT WITH MINIMAL
RAIN CHANCES. PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL RARELY GET ABOVE 0.75 INCHES
THROUGH THE PERIOD AND IS INDICATED TO STAY AROUND 0.5 TO 0.6 INCHES
MOST OF THE TIME. THE SURFACE LOW IN THE SOUTHERN GULF WILL MOVE EAST
AS A HIGH REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
NEW 500 MB RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD OVER OUR REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT LATE IN THE PERIOD THE EURO HAS COME INTO PHASE
WITH THE GFS INSOFAR AS HOW THIS GULF LOW EVOLVES AND MOVES EAST...UP
UNTIL ABOUT 96 HOURS INTO THE PROGNOSIS. THEREAFTER THE EURO WANTS TO
KEEP IT SOUTH IN THE CARIBBEAN AND THE GFS TENDS TO SEPARATE THE LOW
INTO TWO...SENDING ONE TO THE BAHAMAS AND KEEPING THE OTHER CENTER
MOVING EAST INTO THE CARIBBEAN. SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR WITH CONTINUED
DRY CONDITIONS. 77/BD

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MARINE AREA LATE TONIGHT
OR EARLY TUESDAY...WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDING OVER THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND NORTH CENTRAL GULF THROUGH LATE
WEEK. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH LATE WEEK AS WELL. THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT
IN A LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND FLOW OVER THE MARINE
AREA THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND. FLOW COULD BECOME
SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST IF THE SOUTHERN GULF LOW
PRESSURE BECOMES MORE ORGANIZED. THE LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH
WILL LIKELY DRIFT EAST INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OR THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN BY THE WEEKEND...AND WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR
DEVELOPMENT...BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE ANY IMPACTS ON THE LOCAL
MARINE AREA AT THIS TIME. 12/DS

&&

.AVIATION...
20.18Z TAF ISSUANCE...
FEW TO SCATTERED THIN HIGH CLOUDS TODAY AND THIS EVENING. NO CIGS
EXPECTED. VERY ISOLATED PATCHY LIGHT GROUND FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
REGION...BUT NO RESTRICTION TO VISBYS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY
NORTH AT 3 TO 5 KNOTS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHIFTING SOUTH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THEN BECOMING LIGHT VARIABLE OR NORTHERLY AGAIN OVERNIGHT.
VFR CONDITIONS. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      53  79  55  76  51 /  05  05  05  00  05
PENSACOLA   57  81  56  76  56 /  05  05  05  00  05
DESTIN      65  78  61  75  57 /  05  05  05  00  05
EVERGREEN   47  80  48  74  43 /  05  05  05  00  05
WAYNESBORO  46  80  48  75  43 /  05  00  05  00  05
CAMDEN      48  80  48  73  44 /  05  00  05  00  05
CRESTVIEW   47  81  50  76  45 /  05  05  05  00  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$













000
FXUS64 KMOB 202118 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
418 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS RELATIVELY COOL AND DRY AIRMASS
REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION. A WEAK (AND PRECIP FREE) COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...BRINGING
A REINFORCEMENT OF THE COOL/DRY AIR. MAY SEE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY MORNING...BUT GENERALLY MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. WITH MODEL DATA INDICATING A 8-10 DEGREE
TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREAD TONIGHT...REMOVED THE PATCHY FOG FROM
FCST ZONES (ALTHOUGH VERY ISOLATED PATCHES OF GROUND FOG COULD STILL
BE POSSIBLE). LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S INLAND AND LOW TO
MID 50S COASTAL. HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.
12/DS

[TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT]...500 MB TROUGH IN THE GREAT
LAKES REGION IS CONTRIBUTING MUCH EARLY ON TO THE LARGER WAVENUMBER 5
ENERGY DISTRIBUTION. THE FEATURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND BECOME A
CUTOFF 500 MB LOW STILL MOVING SOUTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT. THEN IT WILL
TURN LEFT OVER THE ATLANTIC RUNNING ALONG THE EAST COAST NORTHEAST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AS WELL...FOLLOWING THE UPPER
FEATURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TUESDAY NIGHT AND DEEPENING AS IT
TURNS IN SIMILAR FASHION MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG THE EAST COAST
WEDNESDAY. 500 MB RIDGE EXITING THE PLAINS STATES WILL DAMPEN SOME
BEFORE REACHING THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BY
THEN WE SHOULD SEE A SURFACE LOW FORMING OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. A LIGHT NORTH WIND WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS. LOWS 4 TO 8 DEGREES
BELOW MONTHLY NORMALS. HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TUESDAY...AND A FEW DEGREES BLEOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY. 77/BD

.LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...THE EURO AND GFS ARE IN
PRETTY CLOSE PHASE THROUGH 96 HRS...THEN PHASING DRIFTS SLIGHTLY
APART THEREAFTER WITH A SLIGHT LAG IN THE GFS...NO MORE THAN ABOUT 2
OR 3 DEGREES OF LONGITUDE. THE THE UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY PASSING US TO THE EAST AND MOVING INTO THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES ON THURSDAY. THAT RIDGE WILL SOON BE FOLLOWED
BY A TROUGH. SEVERAL PERTURBATIONS IN THE 500 MB FLOW WILL TRAVEL
SOUTHEAST OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT WITH MINIMAL
RAIN CHANCES. PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL RARELY GET ABOVE 0.75 INCHES
THROUGH THE PERIOD AND IS INDICATED TO STAY AROUND 0.5 TO 0.6 INCHES
MOST OF THE TIME. THE SURFACE LOW IN THE SOUTHERN GULF WILL MOVE EAST
AS A HIGH REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
NEW 500 MB RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD OVER OUR REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT LATE IN THE PERIOD THE EURO HAS COME INTO PHASE
WITH THE GFS INSOFAR AS HOW THIS GULF LOW EVOLVES AND MOVES EAST...UP
UNTIL ABOUT 96 HOURS INTO THE PROGNOSIS. THEREAFTER THE EURO WANTS TO
KEEP IT SOUTH IN THE CARIBBEAN AND THE GFS TENDS TO SEPARATE THE LOW
INTO TWO...SENDING ONE TO THE BAHAMAS AND KEEPING THE OTHER CENTER
MOVING EAST INTO THE CARIBBEAN. SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR WITH CONTINUED
DRY CONDITIONS. 77/BD

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MARINE AREA LATE TONIGHT
OR EARLY TUESDAY...WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDING OVER THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND NORTH CENTRAL GULF THROUGH LATE
WEEK. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH LATE WEEK AS WELL. THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT
IN A LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND FLOW OVER THE MARINE
AREA THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND. FLOW COULD BECOME
SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST IF THE SOUTHERN GULF LOW
PRESSURE BECOMES MORE ORGANIZED. THE LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH
WILL LIKELY DRIFT EAST INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OR THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN BY THE WEEKEND...AND WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR
DEVELOPMENT...BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE ANY IMPACTS ON THE LOCAL
MARINE AREA AT THIS TIME. 12/DS

&&

.AVIATION...
20.18Z TAF ISSUANCE...
FEW TO SCATTERED THIN HIGH CLOUDS TODAY AND THIS EVENING. NO CIGS
EXPECTED. VERY ISOLATED PATCHY LIGHT GROUND FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
REGION...BUT NO RESTRICTION TO VISBYS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY
NORTH AT 3 TO 5 KNOTS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHIFTING SOUTH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THEN BECOMING LIGHT VARIABLE OR NORTHERLY AGAIN OVERNIGHT.
VFR CONDITIONS. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      53  79  55  76  51 /  05  05  05  00  05
PENSACOLA   57  81  56  76  56 /  05  05  05  00  05
DESTIN      65  78  61  75  57 /  05  05  05  00  05
EVERGREEN   47  80  48  74  43 /  05  05  05  00  05
WAYNESBORO  46  80  48  75  43 /  05  00  05  00  05
CAMDEN      48  80  48  73  44 /  05  00  05  00  05
CRESTVIEW   47  81  50  76  45 /  05  05  05  00  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KMOB 202118 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
418 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS RELATIVELY COOL AND DRY AIRMASS
REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION. A WEAK (AND PRECIP FREE) COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...BRINGING
A REINFORCEMENT OF THE COOL/DRY AIR. MAY SEE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY MORNING...BUT GENERALLY MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. WITH MODEL DATA INDICATING A 8-10 DEGREE
TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREAD TONIGHT...REMOVED THE PATCHY FOG FROM
FCST ZONES (ALTHOUGH VERY ISOLATED PATCHES OF GROUND FOG COULD STILL
BE POSSIBLE). LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S INLAND AND LOW TO
MID 50S COASTAL. HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.
12/DS

[TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT]...500 MB TROUGH IN THE GREAT
LAKES REGION IS CONTRIBUTING MUCH EARLY ON TO THE LARGER WAVENUMBER 5
ENERGY DISTRIBUTION. THE FEATURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND BECOME A
CUTOFF 500 MB LOW STILL MOVING SOUTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT. THEN IT WILL
TURN LEFT OVER THE ATLANTIC RUNNING ALONG THE EAST COAST NORTHEAST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AS WELL...FOLLOWING THE UPPER
FEATURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TUESDAY NIGHT AND DEEPENING AS IT
TURNS IN SIMILAR FASHION MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG THE EAST COAST
WEDNESDAY. 500 MB RIDGE EXITING THE PLAINS STATES WILL DAMPEN SOME
BEFORE REACHING THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BY
THEN WE SHOULD SEE A SURFACE LOW FORMING OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. A LIGHT NORTH WIND WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS. LOWS 4 TO 8 DEGREES
BELOW MONTHLY NORMALS. HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TUESDAY...AND A FEW DEGREES BLEOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY. 77/BD

.LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...THE EURO AND GFS ARE IN
PRETTY CLOSE PHASE THROUGH 96 HRS...THEN PHASING DRIFTS SLIGHTLY
APART THEREAFTER WITH A SLIGHT LAG IN THE GFS...NO MORE THAN ABOUT 2
OR 3 DEGREES OF LONGITUDE. THE THE UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY PASSING US TO THE EAST AND MOVING INTO THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES ON THURSDAY. THAT RIDGE WILL SOON BE FOLLOWED
BY A TROUGH. SEVERAL PERTURBATIONS IN THE 500 MB FLOW WILL TRAVEL
SOUTHEAST OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT WITH MINIMAL
RAIN CHANCES. PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL RARELY GET ABOVE 0.75 INCHES
THROUGH THE PERIOD AND IS INDICATED TO STAY AROUND 0.5 TO 0.6 INCHES
MOST OF THE TIME. THE SURFACE LOW IN THE SOUTHERN GULF WILL MOVE EAST
AS A HIGH REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
NEW 500 MB RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD OVER OUR REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT LATE IN THE PERIOD THE EURO HAS COME INTO PHASE
WITH THE GFS INSOFAR AS HOW THIS GULF LOW EVOLVES AND MOVES EAST...UP
UNTIL ABOUT 96 HOURS INTO THE PROGNOSIS. THEREAFTER THE EURO WANTS TO
KEEP IT SOUTH IN THE CARIBBEAN AND THE GFS TENDS TO SEPARATE THE LOW
INTO TWO...SENDING ONE TO THE BAHAMAS AND KEEPING THE OTHER CENTER
MOVING EAST INTO THE CARIBBEAN. SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR WITH CONTINUED
DRY CONDITIONS. 77/BD

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MARINE AREA LATE TONIGHT
OR EARLY TUESDAY...WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDING OVER THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND NORTH CENTRAL GULF THROUGH LATE
WEEK. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH LATE WEEK AS WELL. THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT
IN A LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND FLOW OVER THE MARINE
AREA THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND. FLOW COULD BECOME
SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST IF THE SOUTHERN GULF LOW
PRESSURE BECOMES MORE ORGANIZED. THE LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH
WILL LIKELY DRIFT EAST INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OR THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN BY THE WEEKEND...AND WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR
DEVELOPMENT...BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE ANY IMPACTS ON THE LOCAL
MARINE AREA AT THIS TIME. 12/DS

&&

.AVIATION...
20.18Z TAF ISSUANCE...
FEW TO SCATTERED THIN HIGH CLOUDS TODAY AND THIS EVENING. NO CIGS
EXPECTED. VERY ISOLATED PATCHY LIGHT GROUND FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
REGION...BUT NO RESTRICTION TO VISBYS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY
NORTH AT 3 TO 5 KNOTS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHIFTING SOUTH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THEN BECOMING LIGHT VARIABLE OR NORTHERLY AGAIN OVERNIGHT.
VFR CONDITIONS. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      53  79  55  76  51 /  05  05  05  00  05
PENSACOLA   57  81  56  76  56 /  05  05  05  00  05
DESTIN      65  78  61  75  57 /  05  05  05  00  05
EVERGREEN   47  80  48  74  43 /  05  05  05  00  05
WAYNESBORO  46  80  48  75  43 /  05  00  05  00  05
CAMDEN      48  80  48  73  44 /  05  00  05  00  05
CRESTVIEW   47  81  50  76  45 /  05  05  05  00  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMOB 202112
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
412 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS RELATIVELY COOL AND DRY AIRMASS
REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION. A WEAK (AND PRECIP FREE) COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...BRINGING
A REINFORCEMENT OF THE COOL/DRY AIR. MAY SEE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY MORNING...BUT GENERALLY MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. WITH MODEL DATA INDICATING A 8-10 DEGREE
TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREAD TONIGHT...REMOVED THE PATCHY FOG FROM
FCST ZONES (ALTHOUGH VERY ISOLATED PATCHES OF GROUND FOG COULD STILL
BE POSSIBLE). LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S INLAND AND LOW TO
MID 50S COASTAL. HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.
12/DS

[TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT]...500 MB TROUGH IN THE GREAT
LAKES REGION IS CONTRIBUTING MUCH EARLY ON TO THE LARGER WAVENUMBER 5
ENERGY DISTRIBUTION. THE FEATURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND BECOME A
CUTOFF 500 MB LOW STILL MOVING SOUTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT. THEN IT WILL
TURN LEFT OVER THE ATLANTIC RUNNING ALONG THE EAST COAST NORTHEAST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AS WELL...FOLLOWING THE UPPER
FEATURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TUESDAY NIGHT AND DEEPENING AS IT
TURNS IN SIMILAR FASHION MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG THE EAST COAST
WEDNESDAY. 500 MB RIDGE EXITING THE PLAINS STATES WILL DAMPEN SOME
BEFORE REACHING THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BY
THEN WE SHOULD SEE A SURFACE LOW FORMING OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. A LIGHT NORTH WIND WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS. 77/BD

.LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...THE EURO AND GFS ARE IN
PRETTY CLOSE PHASE THROUGH 96 HRS...THEN PHASING DRIFTS SLIGHTLY
APART THEREAFTER WITH A SLIGHT LAG IN THE GFS...NO MORE THAN ABOUT 2
OR 3 DEGREES OF LONGITUDE. THE THE UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY PASSING US TO THE EAST AND MOVING INTO THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES ON THURSDAY. THAT RIDGE WILL SOON BE FOLLOWED
BY A TROUGH. SEVERAL PERTURBATIONS IN THE 500 MB FLOW WILL TRAVEL
SOUTHEAST OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT WITH MINIMAL
RAIN CHANCES. PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL RARELY GET ABOVE 0.75 INCHES
THROUGH THE PERIOD AND IS INDICATED TO STAY AROUND 0.5 TO 0.6 INCHES
MOST OF THE TIME. THE SURFACE LOW IN THE SOUTHERN GULF WILL MOVE EAST
AS A HIGH REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
NEW 500 MB RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD OVER OUR REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT LATE IN THE PERIOD THE EURO HAS COME INTO PHASE
WITH THE GFS INSOFAR AS HOW THIS GULF LOW EVOLVES AND MOVES EAST...UP
UNTIL ABOUT 96 HOURS INTO THE PROGNOSIS. THEREAFTER THE EURO WANTS TO
KEEP IT SOUTH IN THE CARIBBEAN AND THE GFS TENDS TO SEPARATE THE LOW
INTO TWO...SENDING ONE TO THE BAHAMAS AND KEEPING THE OTHER CENTER
MOVING EAST INTO THE CARIBBEAN. SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR WITH CONTINUED
DRY CONDITIONS. 77/BD

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MARINE AREA LATE TONIGHT
OR EARLY TUESDAY...WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDING OVER THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND NORTH CENTRAL GULF THROUGH LATE
WEEK. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH LATE WEEK AS WELL. THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT
IN A LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND FLOW OVER THE MARINE
AREA THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND. FLOW COULD BECOME
SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST IF THE SOUTHERN GULF LOW
PRESSURE BECOMES MORE ORGANIZED. THE LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH
WILL LIKELY DRIFT EAST INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OR THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN BY THE WEEKEND...AND WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR
DEVELOPMENT...BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE ANY IMPACTS ON THE LOCAL
MARINE AREA AT THIS TIME. 12/DS

&&

.AVIATION...
20.18Z TAF ISSUANCE...
FEW TO SCATTERED THIN HIGH CLOUDS TODAY AND THIS EVENING. NO CIGS
EXPECTED. VERY ISOLATED PATCHY LIGHT GROUND FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
REGION...BUT NO RESTRICTION TO VISBYS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY
NORTH AT 3 TO 5 KNOTS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHIFTING SOUTH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THEN BECOMING LIGHT VARIABLE OR NORTHERLY AGAIN OVERNIGHT.
VFR CONDITIONS. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      53  79  55  76  51 /  05  05  05  00  05
PENSACOLA   57  81  56  76  56 /  05  05  05  00  05
DESTIN      65  78  61  75  57 /  05  05  05  00  05
EVERGREEN   47  80  48  74  43 /  05  05  05  00  05
WAYNESBORO  46  80  48  75  43 /  05  00  05  00  05
CAMDEN      48  80  48  73  44 /  05  00  05  00  05
CRESTVIEW   47  81  50  76  45 /  05  05  05  00  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMOB 202112
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
412 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS RELATIVELY COOL AND DRY AIRMASS
REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION. A WEAK (AND PRECIP FREE) COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...BRINGING
A REINFORCEMENT OF THE COOL/DRY AIR. MAY SEE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY MORNING...BUT GENERALLY MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. WITH MODEL DATA INDICATING A 8-10 DEGREE
TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREAD TONIGHT...REMOVED THE PATCHY FOG FROM
FCST ZONES (ALTHOUGH VERY ISOLATED PATCHES OF GROUND FOG COULD STILL
BE POSSIBLE). LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S INLAND AND LOW TO
MID 50S COASTAL. HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.
12/DS

[TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT]...500 MB TROUGH IN THE GREAT
LAKES REGION IS CONTRIBUTING MUCH EARLY ON TO THE LARGER WAVENUMBER 5
ENERGY DISTRIBUTION. THE FEATURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND BECOME A
CUTOFF 500 MB LOW STILL MOVING SOUTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT. THEN IT WILL
TURN LEFT OVER THE ATLANTIC RUNNING ALONG THE EAST COAST NORTHEAST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AS WELL...FOLLOWING THE UPPER
FEATURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TUESDAY NIGHT AND DEEPENING AS IT
TURNS IN SIMILAR FASHION MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG THE EAST COAST
WEDNESDAY. 500 MB RIDGE EXITING THE PLAINS STATES WILL DAMPEN SOME
BEFORE REACHING THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BY
THEN WE SHOULD SEE A SURFACE LOW FORMING OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. A LIGHT NORTH WIND WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS. 77/BD

.LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...THE EURO AND GFS ARE IN
PRETTY CLOSE PHASE THROUGH 96 HRS...THEN PHASING DRIFTS SLIGHTLY
APART THEREAFTER WITH A SLIGHT LAG IN THE GFS...NO MORE THAN ABOUT 2
OR 3 DEGREES OF LONGITUDE. THE THE UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY PASSING US TO THE EAST AND MOVING INTO THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES ON THURSDAY. THAT RIDGE WILL SOON BE FOLLOWED
BY A TROUGH. SEVERAL PERTURBATIONS IN THE 500 MB FLOW WILL TRAVEL
SOUTHEAST OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT WITH MINIMAL
RAIN CHANCES. PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL RARELY GET ABOVE 0.75 INCHES
THROUGH THE PERIOD AND IS INDICATED TO STAY AROUND 0.5 TO 0.6 INCHES
MOST OF THE TIME. THE SURFACE LOW IN THE SOUTHERN GULF WILL MOVE EAST
AS A HIGH REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
NEW 500 MB RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD OVER OUR REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT LATE IN THE PERIOD THE EURO HAS COME INTO PHASE
WITH THE GFS INSOFAR AS HOW THIS GULF LOW EVOLVES AND MOVES EAST...UP
UNTIL ABOUT 96 HOURS INTO THE PROGNOSIS. THEREAFTER THE EURO WANTS TO
KEEP IT SOUTH IN THE CARIBBEAN AND THE GFS TENDS TO SEPARATE THE LOW
INTO TWO...SENDING ONE TO THE BAHAMAS AND KEEPING THE OTHER CENTER
MOVING EAST INTO THE CARIBBEAN. SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR WITH CONTINUED
DRY CONDITIONS. 77/BD

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MARINE AREA LATE TONIGHT
OR EARLY TUESDAY...WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDING OVER THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND NORTH CENTRAL GULF THROUGH LATE
WEEK. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH LATE WEEK AS WELL. THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT
IN A LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND FLOW OVER THE MARINE
AREA THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND. FLOW COULD BECOME
SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST IF THE SOUTHERN GULF LOW
PRESSURE BECOMES MORE ORGANIZED. THE LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH
WILL LIKELY DRIFT EAST INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OR THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN BY THE WEEKEND...AND WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR
DEVELOPMENT...BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE ANY IMPACTS ON THE LOCAL
MARINE AREA AT THIS TIME. 12/DS

&&

.AVIATION...
20.18Z TAF ISSUANCE...
FEW TO SCATTERED THIN HIGH CLOUDS TODAY AND THIS EVENING. NO CIGS
EXPECTED. VERY ISOLATED PATCHY LIGHT GROUND FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
REGION...BUT NO RESTRICTION TO VISBYS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY
NORTH AT 3 TO 5 KNOTS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHIFTING SOUTH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THEN BECOMING LIGHT VARIABLE OR NORTHERLY AGAIN OVERNIGHT.
VFR CONDITIONS. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      53  79  55  76  51 /  05  05  05  00  05
PENSACOLA   57  81  56  76  56 /  05  05  05  00  05
DESTIN      65  78  61  75  57 /  05  05  05  00  05
EVERGREEN   47  80  48  74  43 /  05  05  05  00  05
WAYNESBORO  46  80  48  75  43 /  05  00  05  00  05
CAMDEN      48  80  48  73  44 /  05  00  05  00  05
CRESTVIEW   47  81  50  76  45 /  05  05  05  00  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMOB 201800
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
100 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014


.AVIATION...20.18Z TAF ISSUANCE...
FEW TO SCATTERED THIN HIGH CLOUDS TODAY AND THIS EVENING. NO CIGS
EXPECTED. VERY ISOLATED PATCHY LIGHT GROUND FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
REGION...BUT NO RESTRICTION TO VSBYS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY
NORTH AT 3 TO 5 KNOTS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHIFTING SOUTH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THEN BECOMING LIGHT VARIABLE OR NORTHERLY AGAIN OVERNIGHT.
VFR CONDITIONS. 12/DS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 508 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...DEEP HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD WEST
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF STATES THROUGH TONIGHT AS AN UPPER TROF TO
THE NORTH SHIFTS EAST. THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO BETTER SUBSIDENCE
IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER LEADING TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND SLIGHTLY WARMER DAYTIME TEMPS. WITH A LIGHT ONSHORE
DEVELOPING BY LATE IN THE DAY...ADDING SLIGHTLY BETTER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO THE REGION...COMBINED WITH BETTER SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND A
BETTER CHANCE TO DECOUPLE IN THE LOWER LEVELS OVERNIGHT MOSTLY OVER
LAND AREAS NORTH OF THE COAST WE COULD SEE SOME PATCHY RADIATION FOG
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY TUES MORNING. AS FOR TEMPS WILL USE A BLEND OF
THE CURRENT MAV AND MET GUIDANCE THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S FOR MOST AREAS WITH LOWS TONIGHT RANGING
FROM THE MID TO UPPER 40S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS GENERALLY NORTH OF
THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S FURTHER SOUTH TO THE
COAST. 32/EE

[TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY]...LARGE UPPER LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY AND THEN
LIFT NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY. THE AXIS OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
EXITING THE PLAINS STATES EARLY TUESDAY WILL REACH THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST GREAT LAKES REGION WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC ON TUESDAY AND THEN DEEPEN AS IT MOVES NORTH TOWARD
LONG ISLAND ON WEDNESDAY. A LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR
WITH A CONTINUATION OF DRY CONDITIONS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM 77 TO 82 DEGREES. LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 46 TO 52 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...AND
FROM 53 TO 58 DEGREES ALONG THE COASTAL SECTIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER...RANGING FROM 74 TO 79 DEGREES.
LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 39 TO 47 DEGREES INLAND
AREAS...AND FROM 48 TO 54 DEGREES ALONG THE COASTAL SECTIONS. /22

LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT
EAST OVER THE EASTERN CONUS ON THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY. UPPER HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REBUILD OVER THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE AREA ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF REGION WILL DRIFT EAST AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM 75 TO 80
DEGREES. HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WILL RANGE FROM 77 TO 82
DEGREES. LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS WILL RANGE FROM
42 TO 48 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...AND FROM 49 TO 55 DEGREES ALONG THE
COASTAL SECTIONS. LOW TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WILL RANGE FROM
48 TO 55 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...AND FROM 55 TO 59 DEGREES ALONG THE
COASTAL SECTIONS. /22

AVIATION...
20.12Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF CYCLE
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 21.12Z. COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR VISIBILITIES BETWEEN 21.09Z AND 21.13Z. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY
NORTH AT 3 TO 5 KNOTS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON TODAY SHIFTING SOUTH BY
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THEN BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. 32/EE

MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY AND NORTH CENTRAL GULF THROUGH MIDWEEK LEADING TO A
LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEAST WIND FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BUILD OVER THE WEEKEND IN RESPONSE
TO A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EASTWARD OVER THE
SOUTHERN GULF COMBINED WITH A DEEP RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
OVER THE WESTERN GULF. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      53  80  55  76  51 /  05  00  05  00  05
PENSACOLA   53  80  56  76  56 /  05  00  05  00  05
DESTIN      57  80  61  75  57 /  05  05  05  00  05
EVERGREEN   48  79  48  74  43 /  05  00  05  00  05
WAYNESBORO  47  80  48  75  43 /  05  00  05  00  05
CAMDEN      49  79  48  73  44 /  05  00  05  00  05
CRESTVIEW   51  81  50  76  45 /  05  00  05  00  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMOB 201800
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
100 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014


.AVIATION...20.18Z TAF ISSUANCE...
FEW TO SCATTERED THIN HIGH CLOUDS TODAY AND THIS EVENING. NO CIGS
EXPECTED. VERY ISOLATED PATCHY LIGHT GROUND FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
REGION...BUT NO RESTRICTION TO VSBYS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY
NORTH AT 3 TO 5 KNOTS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHIFTING SOUTH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THEN BECOMING LIGHT VARIABLE OR NORTHERLY AGAIN OVERNIGHT.
VFR CONDITIONS. 12/DS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 508 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...DEEP HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD WEST
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF STATES THROUGH TONIGHT AS AN UPPER TROF TO
THE NORTH SHIFTS EAST. THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO BETTER SUBSIDENCE
IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER LEADING TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND SLIGHTLY WARMER DAYTIME TEMPS. WITH A LIGHT ONSHORE
DEVELOPING BY LATE IN THE DAY...ADDING SLIGHTLY BETTER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO THE REGION...COMBINED WITH BETTER SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND A
BETTER CHANCE TO DECOUPLE IN THE LOWER LEVELS OVERNIGHT MOSTLY OVER
LAND AREAS NORTH OF THE COAST WE COULD SEE SOME PATCHY RADIATION FOG
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY TUES MORNING. AS FOR TEMPS WILL USE A BLEND OF
THE CURRENT MAV AND MET GUIDANCE THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S FOR MOST AREAS WITH LOWS TONIGHT RANGING
FROM THE MID TO UPPER 40S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS GENERALLY NORTH OF
THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S FURTHER SOUTH TO THE
COAST. 32/EE

[TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY]...LARGE UPPER LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY AND THEN
LIFT NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY. THE AXIS OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
EXITING THE PLAINS STATES EARLY TUESDAY WILL REACH THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST GREAT LAKES REGION WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC ON TUESDAY AND THEN DEEPEN AS IT MOVES NORTH TOWARD
LONG ISLAND ON WEDNESDAY. A LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR
WITH A CONTINUATION OF DRY CONDITIONS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM 77 TO 82 DEGREES. LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 46 TO 52 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...AND
FROM 53 TO 58 DEGREES ALONG THE COASTAL SECTIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER...RANGING FROM 74 TO 79 DEGREES.
LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 39 TO 47 DEGREES INLAND
AREAS...AND FROM 48 TO 54 DEGREES ALONG THE COASTAL SECTIONS. /22

LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT
EAST OVER THE EASTERN CONUS ON THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY. UPPER HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REBUILD OVER THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE AREA ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF REGION WILL DRIFT EAST AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM 75 TO 80
DEGREES. HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WILL RANGE FROM 77 TO 82
DEGREES. LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS WILL RANGE FROM
42 TO 48 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...AND FROM 49 TO 55 DEGREES ALONG THE
COASTAL SECTIONS. LOW TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WILL RANGE FROM
48 TO 55 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...AND FROM 55 TO 59 DEGREES ALONG THE
COASTAL SECTIONS. /22

AVIATION...
20.12Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF CYCLE
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 21.12Z. COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR VISIBILITIES BETWEEN 21.09Z AND 21.13Z. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY
NORTH AT 3 TO 5 KNOTS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON TODAY SHIFTING SOUTH BY
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THEN BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. 32/EE

MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY AND NORTH CENTRAL GULF THROUGH MIDWEEK LEADING TO A
LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEAST WIND FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BUILD OVER THE WEEKEND IN RESPONSE
TO A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EASTWARD OVER THE
SOUTHERN GULF COMBINED WITH A DEEP RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
OVER THE WESTERN GULF. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      53  80  55  76  51 /  05  00  05  00  05
PENSACOLA   53  80  56  76  56 /  05  00  05  00  05
DESTIN      57  80  61  75  57 /  05  05  05  00  05
EVERGREEN   48  79  48  74  43 /  05  00  05  00  05
WAYNESBORO  47  80  48  75  43 /  05  00  05  00  05
CAMDEN      49  79  48  73  44 /  05  00  05  00  05
CRESTVIEW   51  81  50  76  45 /  05  00  05  00  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KMOB 201008
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
508 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...DEEP HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD WEST
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF STATES THROUGH TONIGHT AS AN UPPER TROF TO
THE NORTH SHIFTS EAST. THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO BETTER SUBSIDENCE
IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER LEADING TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND SLIGHTLY WARMER DAYTIME TEMPS. WITH A LIGHT ONSHORE
DEVELOPING BY LATE IN THE DAY...ADDING SLIGHTLY BETTER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO THE REGION...COMBINED WITH BETTER SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND A
BETTER CHANCE TO DECOUPLE IN THE LOWER LEVELS OVERNIGHT MOSTLY OVER
LAND AREAS NORTH OF THE COAST WE COULD SEE SOME PATCHY RADIATION FOG
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY TUES MORNING. AS FOR TEMPS WILL USE A BLEND OF
THE CURRENT MAV AND MET GUIDANCE THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S FOR MOST AREAS WITH LOWS TONIGHT RANGING
FROM THE MID TO UPPER 40S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS GENERALLY NORTH OF
THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S FURTHER SOUTH TO THE
COAST. 32/EE

[TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY]...LARGE UPPER LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY AND THEN
LIFT NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY. THE AXIS OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
EXITING THE PLAINS STATES EARLY TUESDAY WILL REACH THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST GREAT LAKES REGION WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC ON TUESDAY AND THEN DEEPEN AS IT MOVES NORTH TOWARD
LONG ISLAND ON WEDNESDAY. A LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR
WITH A CONTINUATION OF DRY CONDITIONS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM 77 TO 82 DEGREES. LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 46 TO 52 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...AND
FROM 53 TO 58 DEGREES ALONG THE COASTAL SECTIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER...RANGING FROM 74 TO 79 DEGREES.
LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 39 TO 47 DEGREES INLAND
AREAS...AND FROM 48 TO 54 DEGREES ALONG THE COASTAL SECTIONS. /22

.LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT
EAST OVER THE EASTERN CONUS ON THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY. UPPER HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REBUILD OVER THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE AREA ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF REGION WILL DRIFT EAST AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM 75 TO 80
DEGREES. HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WILL RANGE FROM 77 TO 82
DEGREES. LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS WILL RANGE FROM
42 TO 48 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...AND FROM 49 TO 55 DEGREES ALONG THE
COASTAL SECTIONS. LOW TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WILL RANGE FROM
48 TO 55 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...AND FROM 55 TO 59 DEGREES ALONG THE
COASTAL SECTIONS. /22

&&

.AVIATION...
20.12Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF CYCLE
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 21.12Z. COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR VISIBILITIES BETWEEN 21.09Z AND 21.13Z. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY
NORTH AT 3 TO 5 KNOTS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON TODAY SHIFTING SOUTH BY
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THEN BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. 32/EE

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY AND NORTH CENTRAL GULF THROUGH MIDWEEK LEADING TO A
LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEAST WIND FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BUILD OVER THE WEEKEND IN RESPONSE
TO A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EASTWARD OVER THE
SOUTHERN GULF COMBINED WITH A DEEP RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
OVER THE WESTERN GULF. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      79  52  80  54  78 /  00  05  00  05  05
PENSACOLA   79  54  80  57  77 /  00  05  00  05  00
DESTIN      78  56  80  59  76 /  05  05  05  05  00
EVERGREEN   76  47  80  46  76 /  00  05  00  05  00
WAYNESBORO  77  46  80  46  77 /  00  05  00  05  05
CAMDEN      77  48  79  46  74 /  00  05  00  05  05
CRESTVIEW   78  50  82  48  78 /  00  05  00  05  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMOB 201008
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
508 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...DEEP HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD WEST
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF STATES THROUGH TONIGHT AS AN UPPER TROF TO
THE NORTH SHIFTS EAST. THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO BETTER SUBSIDENCE
IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER LEADING TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND SLIGHTLY WARMER DAYTIME TEMPS. WITH A LIGHT ONSHORE
DEVELOPING BY LATE IN THE DAY...ADDING SLIGHTLY BETTER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO THE REGION...COMBINED WITH BETTER SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND A
BETTER CHANCE TO DECOUPLE IN THE LOWER LEVELS OVERNIGHT MOSTLY OVER
LAND AREAS NORTH OF THE COAST WE COULD SEE SOME PATCHY RADIATION FOG
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY TUES MORNING. AS FOR TEMPS WILL USE A BLEND OF
THE CURRENT MAV AND MET GUIDANCE THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S FOR MOST AREAS WITH LOWS TONIGHT RANGING
FROM THE MID TO UPPER 40S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS GENERALLY NORTH OF
THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S FURTHER SOUTH TO THE
COAST. 32/EE

[TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY]...LARGE UPPER LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY AND THEN
LIFT NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY. THE AXIS OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
EXITING THE PLAINS STATES EARLY TUESDAY WILL REACH THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST GREAT LAKES REGION WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC ON TUESDAY AND THEN DEEPEN AS IT MOVES NORTH TOWARD
LONG ISLAND ON WEDNESDAY. A LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR
WITH A CONTINUATION OF DRY CONDITIONS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM 77 TO 82 DEGREES. LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 46 TO 52 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...AND
FROM 53 TO 58 DEGREES ALONG THE COASTAL SECTIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER...RANGING FROM 74 TO 79 DEGREES.
LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 39 TO 47 DEGREES INLAND
AREAS...AND FROM 48 TO 54 DEGREES ALONG THE COASTAL SECTIONS. /22

.LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT
EAST OVER THE EASTERN CONUS ON THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY. UPPER HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REBUILD OVER THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE AREA ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF REGION WILL DRIFT EAST AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM 75 TO 80
DEGREES. HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WILL RANGE FROM 77 TO 82
DEGREES. LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS WILL RANGE FROM
42 TO 48 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...AND FROM 49 TO 55 DEGREES ALONG THE
COASTAL SECTIONS. LOW TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WILL RANGE FROM
48 TO 55 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...AND FROM 55 TO 59 DEGREES ALONG THE
COASTAL SECTIONS. /22

&&

.AVIATION...
20.12Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF CYCLE
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 21.12Z. COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR VISIBILITIES BETWEEN 21.09Z AND 21.13Z. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY
NORTH AT 3 TO 5 KNOTS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON TODAY SHIFTING SOUTH BY
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THEN BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. 32/EE

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY AND NORTH CENTRAL GULF THROUGH MIDWEEK LEADING TO A
LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEAST WIND FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BUILD OVER THE WEEKEND IN RESPONSE
TO A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EASTWARD OVER THE
SOUTHERN GULF COMBINED WITH A DEEP RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
OVER THE WESTERN GULF. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      79  52  80  54  78 /  00  05  00  05  05
PENSACOLA   79  54  80  57  77 /  00  05  00  05  00
DESTIN      78  56  80  59  76 /  05  05  05  05  00
EVERGREEN   76  47  80  46  76 /  00  05  00  05  00
WAYNESBORO  77  46  80  46  77 /  00  05  00  05  05
CAMDEN      77  48  79  46  74 /  00  05  00  05  05
CRESTVIEW   78  50  82  48  78 /  00  05  00  05  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KMOB 201008
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
508 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...DEEP HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD WEST
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF STATES THROUGH TONIGHT AS AN UPPER TROF TO
THE NORTH SHIFTS EAST. THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO BETTER SUBSIDENCE
IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER LEADING TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND SLIGHTLY WARMER DAYTIME TEMPS. WITH A LIGHT ONSHORE
DEVELOPING BY LATE IN THE DAY...ADDING SLIGHTLY BETTER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO THE REGION...COMBINED WITH BETTER SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND A
BETTER CHANCE TO DECOUPLE IN THE LOWER LEVELS OVERNIGHT MOSTLY OVER
LAND AREAS NORTH OF THE COAST WE COULD SEE SOME PATCHY RADIATION FOG
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY TUES MORNING. AS FOR TEMPS WILL USE A BLEND OF
THE CURRENT MAV AND MET GUIDANCE THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S FOR MOST AREAS WITH LOWS TONIGHT RANGING
FROM THE MID TO UPPER 40S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS GENERALLY NORTH OF
THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S FURTHER SOUTH TO THE
COAST. 32/EE

[TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY]...LARGE UPPER LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY AND THEN
LIFT NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY. THE AXIS OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
EXITING THE PLAINS STATES EARLY TUESDAY WILL REACH THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST GREAT LAKES REGION WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC ON TUESDAY AND THEN DEEPEN AS IT MOVES NORTH TOWARD
LONG ISLAND ON WEDNESDAY. A LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR
WITH A CONTINUATION OF DRY CONDITIONS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM 77 TO 82 DEGREES. LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 46 TO 52 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...AND
FROM 53 TO 58 DEGREES ALONG THE COASTAL SECTIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER...RANGING FROM 74 TO 79 DEGREES.
LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 39 TO 47 DEGREES INLAND
AREAS...AND FROM 48 TO 54 DEGREES ALONG THE COASTAL SECTIONS. /22

.LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT
EAST OVER THE EASTERN CONUS ON THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY. UPPER HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REBUILD OVER THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE AREA ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF REGION WILL DRIFT EAST AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM 75 TO 80
DEGREES. HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WILL RANGE FROM 77 TO 82
DEGREES. LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS WILL RANGE FROM
42 TO 48 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...AND FROM 49 TO 55 DEGREES ALONG THE
COASTAL SECTIONS. LOW TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WILL RANGE FROM
48 TO 55 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...AND FROM 55 TO 59 DEGREES ALONG THE
COASTAL SECTIONS. /22

&&

.AVIATION...
20.12Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF CYCLE
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 21.12Z. COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR VISIBILITIES BETWEEN 21.09Z AND 21.13Z. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY
NORTH AT 3 TO 5 KNOTS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON TODAY SHIFTING SOUTH BY
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THEN BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. 32/EE

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY AND NORTH CENTRAL GULF THROUGH MIDWEEK LEADING TO A
LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEAST WIND FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BUILD OVER THE WEEKEND IN RESPONSE
TO A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EASTWARD OVER THE
SOUTHERN GULF COMBINED WITH A DEEP RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
OVER THE WESTERN GULF. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      79  52  80  54  78 /  00  05  00  05  05
PENSACOLA   79  54  80  57  77 /  00  05  00  05  00
DESTIN      78  56  80  59  76 /  05  05  05  05  00
EVERGREEN   76  47  80  46  76 /  00  05  00  05  00
WAYNESBORO  77  46  80  46  77 /  00  05  00  05  05
CAMDEN      77  48  79  46  74 /  00  05  00  05  05
CRESTVIEW   78  50  82  48  78 /  00  05  00  05  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMOB 201008
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
508 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...DEEP HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD WEST
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF STATES THROUGH TONIGHT AS AN UPPER TROF TO
THE NORTH SHIFTS EAST. THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO BETTER SUBSIDENCE
IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER LEADING TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND SLIGHTLY WARMER DAYTIME TEMPS. WITH A LIGHT ONSHORE
DEVELOPING BY LATE IN THE DAY...ADDING SLIGHTLY BETTER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO THE REGION...COMBINED WITH BETTER SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND A
BETTER CHANCE TO DECOUPLE IN THE LOWER LEVELS OVERNIGHT MOSTLY OVER
LAND AREAS NORTH OF THE COAST WE COULD SEE SOME PATCHY RADIATION FOG
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY TUES MORNING. AS FOR TEMPS WILL USE A BLEND OF
THE CURRENT MAV AND MET GUIDANCE THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S FOR MOST AREAS WITH LOWS TONIGHT RANGING
FROM THE MID TO UPPER 40S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS GENERALLY NORTH OF
THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S FURTHER SOUTH TO THE
COAST. 32/EE

[TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY]...LARGE UPPER LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY AND THEN
LIFT NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY. THE AXIS OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
EXITING THE PLAINS STATES EARLY TUESDAY WILL REACH THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST GREAT LAKES REGION WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC ON TUESDAY AND THEN DEEPEN AS IT MOVES NORTH TOWARD
LONG ISLAND ON WEDNESDAY. A LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR
WITH A CONTINUATION OF DRY CONDITIONS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM 77 TO 82 DEGREES. LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 46 TO 52 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...AND
FROM 53 TO 58 DEGREES ALONG THE COASTAL SECTIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER...RANGING FROM 74 TO 79 DEGREES.
LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 39 TO 47 DEGREES INLAND
AREAS...AND FROM 48 TO 54 DEGREES ALONG THE COASTAL SECTIONS. /22

.LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT
EAST OVER THE EASTERN CONUS ON THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY. UPPER HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REBUILD OVER THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE AREA ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF REGION WILL DRIFT EAST AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM 75 TO 80
DEGREES. HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WILL RANGE FROM 77 TO 82
DEGREES. LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS WILL RANGE FROM
42 TO 48 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...AND FROM 49 TO 55 DEGREES ALONG THE
COASTAL SECTIONS. LOW TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WILL RANGE FROM
48 TO 55 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...AND FROM 55 TO 59 DEGREES ALONG THE
COASTAL SECTIONS. /22

&&

.AVIATION...
20.12Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF CYCLE
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 21.12Z. COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR VISIBILITIES BETWEEN 21.09Z AND 21.13Z. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY
NORTH AT 3 TO 5 KNOTS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON TODAY SHIFTING SOUTH BY
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THEN BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. 32/EE

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY AND NORTH CENTRAL GULF THROUGH MIDWEEK LEADING TO A
LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEAST WIND FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BUILD OVER THE WEEKEND IN RESPONSE
TO A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EASTWARD OVER THE
SOUTHERN GULF COMBINED WITH A DEEP RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
OVER THE WESTERN GULF. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      79  52  80  54  78 /  00  05  00  05  05
PENSACOLA   79  54  80  57  77 /  00  05  00  05  00
DESTIN      78  56  80  59  76 /  05  05  05  05  00
EVERGREEN   76  47  80  46  76 /  00  05  00  05  00
WAYNESBORO  77  46  80  46  77 /  00  05  00  05  05
CAMDEN      77  48  79  46  74 /  00  05  00  05  05
CRESTVIEW   78  50  82  48  78 /  00  05  00  05  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$










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