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000
FXUS64 KMOB 192102
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
402 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT]...EARLY AFTERNOON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LOW CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF
NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. INCREASED SUBSIDENCE WAS
NOTED ACROSS MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA IN THE WAKE OF THIS
FEATURE...WITH GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...THOUGH SOME RESIDUAL LOW CLOUDS
WERE LOCATED MAINLY TO THE EAST OF A CAMDEN...EVERGREEN...NAVARRE
LINE. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS MEANWHILE LOCATED IN THE VICINITY OF
THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA/SOUTHEAST GEORGIA BORDER THIS AFTERNOON.
NORTHERLY WINDS REMAIN SOMEWHAT GUSTY ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA ON
THE WESTERN SIDE OF THIS FEATURE THIS AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS WERE
MOSTLY IN THE 10-15 MPH RANGE...LOCALLY NEAR 20 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS
BETWEEN 25-30 MPH AT TIMES NEAR THE COAST.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN THROUGH SUNDAY.
NORTHERLY WIND SPEEDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE OVER OUR CWFA BY
EARLY THIS EVENING. SOME LINGERING LOW CLOUDS MAY PERSIST OVER FAR
EASTERN PORTIONS WITHIN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FIELDS THIS EVENING...BUT
NO RAIN IS OTHERWISE EXPECTED. SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT SHOULD BUILD
FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA UNDERNEATH THIS FEATURE. ANOTHER COOL NIGHT IS
ANTICIPATED TONIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S OVER THE
INTERIOR TO THE LOWER 50S NEAR THE COAST. HIGHS EASTER SUNDAY SHOULD
WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S AND PERHAPS NEAR 80 OVER A FEW
LOCATIONS OVER THE INTERIOR...AND IN THE LOWER 70S NEAR THE COAST.
/21

UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO ADVANCE EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO THE APPALACHIANS AND SOUTHEAST SUNDAY
NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL WITH A LIGHT EAST TO
NORTHEAST WIND LESS THAN 5 KNOTS AND RAINFREE CONDITIONS. LOWS NEAR
50 OVER THE INTERIOR AND MID/UPPER 50S COAST.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...SURFACE HIGH WEAKENS ON MONDAY
AS A SURFACE LOW WELL TO THE NORTH BRINGS A TRAILING COLD FRONT TO
NEAR THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT. WILL
CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY THEN SMALL CHANCES OF
SHOWERS RETURN TO THE EXTREME NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA LATE
MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS TREND HIGHER ON TUESDAY AS FRONTAL AXIS NEARS...OPERATING ON
INCREASING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ~1.4
INCHES. THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW GOOD PROGRESSION WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE FRONT LATE TUESDAY...SO DO NOT EXPECT A HEAVY RAIN EVENT THIS
TIME AROUND LIKE WE HAVE SEEN OF LATE.

UPPER TROF PIVOTS EAST WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH A LONGWAVE RIDGE
BUILDING INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES EAST
OF THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM LIFTS UP
OUT OF THE PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. SURFACE HIGH TO THE EAST
OF THE AREA ALLOWS FOR A LIGHT RETURN FLOW TO ENSUE WHICH CONTINUES
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WHILE ANOTHER SURFACE LOW WELL TO THE
NORTH BRINGS A TRAILING COLD FRONT TO NEAR THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY BY FRIDAY. A DRY FORECAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WHICH LOOK TO BE IN THE
UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S DURING THE OUTLOOK. 10/29

&&

.AVIATION  [12Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION]...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE LOCAL TERMINALS THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS...WITH A FEW GUSTS OF 20-25
KNOTS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BEFORE GRADUALLY
DECREASING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS BY EARLY EVENING. /21

&&

.MARINE...LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS FROM THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. TO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.
THE RESULTANT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS ELEVATED TO EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS...MAINLY OVER THE OFFSHORE
WATERS TONIGHT. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED AROUND 3-4 FEET WELL
OFFSHORE. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO AND GULF COAST REGION DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART
OF NEXT WEEK. WINDS SHOULD SUBSEQUENTLY FOLLOW A DIURNAL PATTERN...
GENERALLY OFFSHORE AT NIGHT AND EARLY IN THE MORNING...FOLLOWED BY
ONSHORE FLOW DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING NEAR THIS FEATURE. A
LITTLE BETTER GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT SLIGHTLY HIGHER SOUTHWEST WINDS
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD SHIFT EASTWARD BY THE END OF THE
WEEK...ALLOWING FOR INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE MARINE AREA.
/21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      53  75  54  77  57 /  00  00  00  05  10
PENSACOLA   54  74  57  77  60 /  05  05  00  05  10
DESTIN      55  71  59  73  61 /  05  05  00  05  10
EVERGREEN   49  76  49  80  55 /  05  00  00  05  10
WAYNESBORO  49  79  50  80  55 /  00  00  00  10  20
CAMDEN      49  76  49  79  55 /  05  00  00  05  10
CRESTVIEW   49  75  50  78  53 /  05  05  00  05  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KMOB 191226 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
726 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.UPDATE...WENT AHEAD AND TRIMMED CLOUDS A TAD ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
UPPER LOW DRIFTING EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST.
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS BETTER CLOUDS THAN SUN OVER MUCH OF
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWFA THROUGH TONIGHT. CURRENT FORECAST TEMPS
LOOK GOOD FOR NOW. 32/EE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 456 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...LATEST SATELLITE LOOPS CONTINUE
TO SHOW A WELL DEFINED MID TO UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN FL
PANHANDLE AND SOUTH CENTRAL AL PROGGED TO DRIFT EAST TO THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD BY EARLY THIS EVENING. WITH THIS PATTERN CONTINUED MOISTURE
ADVECTION WRAPPING AROUND THE UPPER CIRCULATION WILL SLOWLY LIFT
OFF TO THE EAST BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH A LOW STATUS DECK CONTINUING
OVER MOST OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWFA THROUGH TONIGHT. TO THE
NORTHWEST DRIER AIR IS ALSO NOTED IN THE CURRENT SATELLITE LOOPS
WHICH SHOULD HELP OR ENHANCE THE BETTER DRYING TREND BY THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH THIS MOST AREAS WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY THIS MORNING
FOLLOWED BY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWFA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY MORE CLOUDINESS
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SUN MORNING. AS FOR TEMPS WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE
COOLER MET/ECMWF GUIDANCE DUE TO THE BETTER CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW TO THE EAST. HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
CWFA AND THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S TO THE EAST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 40S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 50S CLOSER TO THE COAST. 32/EE

FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...UPPER RIDGING SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER TROF APPROACHES FROM THE PLAINS
THEN THE UPPER TROF SHIFTS INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES MONDAY NIGHT.
A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE REGION WEAKENS ON MONDAY AS
A SURFACE LOW WELL TO THE NORTH BRINGS A TRAILING COLD FRONT TO NEAR
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT.  WILL
CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY THEN SMALL POPS RETURN
TO THE EXTREME NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY THEN TREND TO SEASONABLE
VALUES BY MONDAY. /29

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...THE UPPER TROF MOVES ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A LONGWAVE RIDGE
BUILDING INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.  THE TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING
WITH A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA ON TUESDAY THEN SMALL POPS
CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING WITH DRY CONDITIONS
FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.  THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES EAST OF THE AREA
THROUGH FRIDAY WHILE A LONGWAVE TROF ADVANCES ACROSS THE PLAINS.
THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALLOWING
FOR A LIGHT RETURN FLOW TO ENSUE WHICH CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY
WHILE ANOTHER SURFACE LOW WELL TO THE NORTH BRINGS A TRAILING COLD
FRONT TO NEAR THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.  A DRY FORECAST
FOLLOWS FOR WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS RETURN FOR FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
FRONT.  A WARMING TREND WITH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH SIMILAR TEMPERATURES THROUGH
FRIDAY. /29

AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE...IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 19.15 FOLLOWED BY MVFR
TO VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 20.12Z. LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIP AROUND
THE REGION THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST OF ALL TERMINAL
TODAY AND TONIGHT. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS THIS MORNING WILL DIMINISH
SLOWLY LATER TODAY AND OVERNIGHT. 32/EE

MARINE...NORTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATER
TODAY AND AND OVERNIGHT AS A BROAD UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE CONTINUES TO DRIFT
EAST...REACHING THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD BY EARLY TONIGHT. IN THE
WAKE OF THE UPPER LOW HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF THROUGH MIDWEEK LEADING TO A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW
MOSTLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS EACH DAY. SEAS WILL
RANGE FROM 1 TO 2 FEET WITH THE LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW BUILDING TO 2 TO
3 FEET LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST COMBINED
WITH A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      75  53  76  55  79 /  10  05  05  05  05
PENSACOLA   70  54  74  58  76 /  10  05  00  05  05
DESTIN      64  54  72  59  74 /  10  05  00  00  05
EVERGREEN   72  47  76  51  79 /  10  05  00  05  05
WAYNESBORO  75  49  78  52  80 /  10  05  00  05  10
CAMDEN      73  49  75  51  79 /  10  05  00  05  05
CRESTVIEW   71  48  75  51  79 /  10  05  00  00  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO
     PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL
     TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...NORTHERN
     MOBILE BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...PERDIDO BAY...SOUTHERN
     MOBILE BAY...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...

&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KMOB 190956
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
456 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...LATEST SATELLITE LOOPS CONTINUE
TO SHOW A WELL DEFINED MID TO UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN FL
PANHANDLE AND SOUTH CENTRAL AL PROGGED TO DRIFT EAST TO THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD BY EARLY THIS EVENING. WITH THIS PATTERN CONTINUED MOISTURE
ADVECTION WRAPPING AROUND THE UPPER CIRCULATION WILL SLOWLY LIFT
OFF TO THE EAST BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH A LOW STATUS DECK CONTINUING
OVER MOST OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWFA THROUGH TONIGHT. TO THE
NORTHWEST DRIER AIR IS ALSO NOTED IN THE CURRENT SATELLITE LOOPS
WHICH SHOULD HELP OR ENHANCE THE BETTER DRYING TREND BY THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH THIS MOST AREAS WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY THIS MORNING
FOLLOWED BY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWFA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY MORE CLOUDINESS
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SUN MORNING. AS FOR TEMPS WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE
COOLER MET/ECMWF GUIDANCE DUE TO THE BETTER CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW TO THE EAST. HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
CWFA AND THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S TO THE EAST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 40S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 50S CLOSER TO THE COAST. 32/EE

FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...UPPER RIDGING SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER TROF APPROACHES FROM THE PLAINS
THEN THE UPPER TROF SHIFTS INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES MONDAY NIGHT.
A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE REGION WEAKENS ON MONDAY AS
A SURFACE LOW WELL TO THE NORTH BRINGS A TRAILING COLD FRONT TO NEAR
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT.  WILL
CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY THEN SMALL POPS RETURN
TO THE EXTREME NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY THEN TREND TO SEASONABLE
VALUES BY MONDAY. /29

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...THE UPPER TROF MOVES ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A LONGWAVE RIDGE
BUILDING INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.  THE TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING
WITH A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA ON TUESDAY THEN SMALL POPS
CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING WITH DRY CONDITIONS
FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.  THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES EAST OF THE AREA
THROUGH FRIDAY WHILE A LONGWAVE TROF ADVANCES ACROSS THE PLAINS.
THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALLOWING
FOR A LIGHT RETURN FLOW TO ENSUE WHICH CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY
WHILE ANOTHER SURFACE LOW WELL TO THE NORTH BRINGS A TRAILING COLD
FRONT TO NEAR THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.  A DRY FORECAST
FOLLOWS FOR WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS RETURN FOR FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
FRONT.  A WARMING TREND WITH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH SIMILAR TEMPERATURES THROUGH
FRIDAY. /29

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE...IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 19.15 FOLLOWED BY MVFR
TO VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 20.12Z. LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIP AROUND
THE REGION THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST OF ALL TERMINAL
TODAY AND TONIGHT. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS THIS MORNING WILL DIMINISH
SLOWLY LATER TODAY AND OVERNIGHT. 32/EE

&&

.MARINE...NORTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATER
TODAY AND AND OVERNIGHT AS A BROAD UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE CONTINUES TO DRIFT
EAST...REACHING THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD BY EARLY TONIGHT. IN THE
WAKE OF THE UPPER LOW HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF THROUGH MIDWEEK LEADING TO A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW
MOSTLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS EACH DAY. SEAS WILL
RANGE FROM 1 TO 2 FEET WITH THE LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW BUILDING TO 2 TO
3 FEET LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST COMBINED
WITH A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      75  53  76  55  79 /  20  05  05  05  05
PENSACOLA   70  54  74  58  76 /  20  05  00  05  05
DESTIN      64  54  72  59  74 /  20  05  00  00  05
EVERGREEN   72  47  76  51  79 /  20  05  00  05  05
WAYNESBORO  75  49  78  52  80 /  20  05  00  05  10
CAMDEN      73  49  75  51  79 /  20  05  00  05  05
CRESTVIEW   71  48  75  51  79 /  20  05  00  00  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO
     PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL
     TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...NORTHERN
     MOBILE BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...PERDIDO BAY...SOUTHERN
     MOBILE BAY...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMOB 190024
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
724 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014



.AVIATION...MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS BLANKETING THE AREA EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY LIFT AND DISSIPATE AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER
SOUTH ALABAMA SLOWLY EXITS THE AREA. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL
ACROSS THE FLYING AREA BY SUNRISE TOMORROW AND PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. /08 JW


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      52  76  53  79  57 /  10  05  05  05  00
PENSACOLA   52  74  55  76  60 /  20  05  05  05  00
DESTIN      54  69  57  74  60 /  30  10  05  05  00
EVERGREEN   50  72  50  78  53 /  30  10  05  05  00
WAYNESBORO  50  76  49  81  53 /  10  00  05  05  00
CAMDEN      50  74  50  77  53 /  20  10  05  05  00
CRESTVIEW   50  73  51  78  52 /  30  10  05  05  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO
     PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL
     TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...NORTHERN
     MOBILE BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...PERDIDO BAY...SOUTHERN
     MOBILE BAY...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...

&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KMOB 182050
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
350 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT]...AN UPPER TROUGH ORGANIZES
INTO A CLOSED LOW AND MOVES EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT...TO OVER THE
CAROLINA COAST BY SATURDAY EVENING. THE SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SYSTEM MOVES FROM OVER THE NE-ERN GULF TO OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST. THIS EASES THE NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA...THOUGH IT
REMAINS STRONG ENOUGH FOR THE WRAP-AROUND STRATUS TO BE SLOW TO MOVE
EAST OF THE FA SATURDAY. THE RESULT SATURDAY IS TEMPS IN THE LOW 70S
EAST...UPPER 70S WEST. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL
BELOW SEASONAL. AM ALSO EXPECTING RESIDUAL SHOWERS TO AFFECT EASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE FA INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. /16

UPPER LEVEL LOW ADVANCES SLOWLY EASTWARD OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
SATURDAY NIGHT AND BECOMES NEARLY STACKED ATOP A SURFACE FRONTAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH BEGINS TO OCCLUDE. AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY...AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFIES FROM THE WESTERN GULF...NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO RIVER VALLEY AREAS. MAY STILL BE DEALING WITH
SOME WRAP-AROUND CLOUDINESS AROUND THE LARGE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND
THE DEPARTING LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT NO
RAIN FORECAST AS THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE LESSENS (PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES MOVE TO LESS THAN AN INCH). DUE TO RECENT RAINS...PATCHY
OVERNIGHT FOG IS POSSIBLE. OVERNIGHT LOWS CLOSE TO 50 OVER THE
INTERIOR TO A RANGE FROM 53 TO 57 OVER THE COASTAL SECTIONS. /10

.LONG TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY]... RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT IS
FORECAST OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST ON SUNDAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM 76 TO 81 BEING NEAR SEASONABLE VALUES. /10

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...UPPER RIDGING SHIFTS EAST OF THE
AREA ON MONDAY AS AN UPPER TROF ADVANCES INTO THE EASTERN STATES
THROUGH TUESDAY. A SURFACE LOW WELL TO THE NORTH BRINGS A WEAKENING
TRAILING COLD FRONT INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES WHICH MOVES THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING. A DRY FORECAST CONTINUES
FOR MONDAY THEN WILL HAVE SMALL POPS RETURN TO THE NORTHWESTERN
PORTION MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT...THEN CHANCE
POPS AREA WIDE FOR TUESDAY. WILL HAVE SMALL POPS OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION TUESDAY EVENING...BUT OTHERWISE A DRY FORECAST FOLLOWS
THROUGH THURSDAY AS A DEEP LAYER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE EASTERN
STATES. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS ENTER THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES FRIDAY
WITH APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS ALONG WITH WEAK SURFACE
FRONT/TROF.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK WARMING INTO THE LOWER 80S. OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE 50S. CLOSER TO 60 ALONG THE BEACHES. 29/10

&&

.AVIATION [18.18Z ISSUANCE...IFR TO LIFR CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS A SYSTEM MEANDERS EASTWARD FROM THE
AREA. SOME FOG/POST FRONTAL STRATUS IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT...BUT AM
EXPECTING CLEAR SKIES FOR MOST OF SATURDAY. /16

&&

.MARINE...STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL LAST INTO SATURDAY...THEN EASE
AS SURFACE LOW MOVES FROM OVER NE FL TO OVER THE CAROLINA
COAST...THEN EAST OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SHIFT FROM OVER THE PLAINS TO ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND....RESTORING ONSHORE FLOW BY THE END OF THE DAY MONDAY TO THE
NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST. A WEAK FRONT WILL SAG ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BRINGING A LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW THROUGH
MID WEEK.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      52  76  53  79  57 /  10  05  05  05  00
PENSACOLA   52  74  55  76  60 /  20  05  05  05  00
DESTIN      54  69  57  74  60 /  30  10  05  05  00
EVERGREEN   50  72  50  78  53 /  30  10  05  05  00
WAYNESBORO  50  76  49  81  53 /  10  00  05  05  00
CAMDEN      50  74  50  77  53 /  20  10  05  05  00
CRESTVIEW   50  73  51  78  52 /  30  10  05  05  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...NORTHERN
     MOBILE BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...PERDIDO BAY...SOUTHERN
     MOBILE BAY...

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL
     WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM...
     WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM FRIDAY TO 11 AM SATURDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA
     MS OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM
     20 TO 60 NM...

&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KMOB 181749 AAC
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED TO AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1204 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.AVIATION...
18Z ISSUANCE...IFR TO LIFR CIGS/VISBYS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AS A SYSTEM MEANDERS EASTWARD FROM THE AREA. SOME
FOG/POST FRONTAL STRATUS IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT...BUT AM EXPECTING
CL3EAR SKIES FOR MOST OF SATURDAY.

/16

&&
.UPDATE...WAVE OF FRONTAL LOW PRESSURE WAS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEAST
OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF. ORGANIZED RAINS HAVE SHIFTED A BIT
MORE EAST...BEING MORE CONFINED OVER COVINGTON COUNTY ALABAMA TO
ACROSS SANTA ROSA AND OKALOOSA COUNTIES OVER THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE. THIS REQUIRES AN UPDATE TO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WHICH
REMOVES THE WESTERN PORTIONS WHERE RAIN COVERAGE HAS LESSENED.
REMAINDER OF WATCH CONTINUES THROUGH 18.23Z/6 PM CDT LOCAL. /10

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1040 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

MARINE...MARINE PACKAGE UPDATED TO REFLECT WINDS WITH FREQUENT
GUSTS TO GALE FORCE.

/16

.FROM PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 518 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...LATEST GUIDANCE FROM BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW THE LOW CENTER TRACKING NE TOWARDS THE EAST FLORIDA
PANHANDLE MOVING JUST SOUTH OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA BY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH CONTINUES TO PLACE THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL
OVER EASTERN AND COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE CWFA THROUGH ABOUT 18Z TODAY
THEN TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. ALOFT GOOD
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS STILL NOTED IN THE GUIDANCE MOSTLY OVER THE
ADJACENT GULF WATERS STRETCHING SOUTH TO BEYOND 60NM FROM SHORE AND
INLAND MOSTLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWFA THROUGH EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON THEN GRADUALLY WEAKENING THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING. AS THE
SFC LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OVER THE NEAR SHORE GULF WATERS HEAVIER
RAINBANDS MAINLY EAST AND NORTH OF THE LOW CENTER WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT THE AREAS MENTIONED ABOVE RESULTING IN RAINFALL TOTALS BETWEEN
2 AND 4 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER
THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE STRETCHING NORTHWARD OVER PARTS OF
SOUTH CENTRAL AL GENERALLY EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR. AS A RESULT
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THESE AREAS MENTIONED
ABOVE THOUGH BELIEVE WE WILL SEE SOME WESTERN COUNTIES DROPPED FROM
THE WATCH BY LATE THIS MORNING OR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE HEAVIER
RAIN SHIFTS MORE TO THE EAST. WITH THIS HAVE MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO THE
EARLIER FORECAST MOSTLY KEEPING SLIGHTLY BETTER RAIN CHANCES ON THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW THROUGH THIS EVENING. AS FOR TEMPS
WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE CURRENT MAV GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY THROUGH
UNDERCUTTING THESE VALUES A DEGREE OR TWO DUE TO CLOUDS AND RAIN. FOR
TONIGHT WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE COOLER MAV GUIDANCE DUE TO WRAP AROUND
CLOUDS AND MOISTURE COMBINED WITH A GOOD NORTHERLY FLOW NEAR THE SFC.
32/EE

FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE LOCATED
NEAR THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA PENINSULA SATURDAY MORNING AND CONTINUES
OFF INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC LATER IN THE DAY...WITH THE ASSOCIATED
UPPER LOW FOLLOWING SOON AFTER.  UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH SUNDAY.  WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION WITH THE DEPARTING
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH A DRY
FORECAST CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY THEN RETURN TO SEASONABLE
VALUES BY SUNDAY. /29

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...UPPER RIDGING SHIFTS EAST OF
THE AREA ON MONDAY AS AN UPPER TROF ADVANCES INTO THE EASTERN STATES
THROUGH TUESDAY.  A SURFACE LOW WELL TO THE NORTH BRINGS A WEAKENING
TRAILING COLD FRONT INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES WHICH MOVES THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING.  A DRY FORECAST
CONTINUES FOR MONDAY THEN WILL HAVE SMALL POPS RETURN TO THE
NORTHWESTERN PORTION MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
FRONT...THEN CHANCE POPS AREA WIDE FOR TUESDAY.  WILL HAVE SMALL
POPS OVER THE EASTERN PORTION TUESDAY EVENING BUT OTHERWISE A DRY
FORECAST FOLLOWS THROUGH THURSDAY AS A DEEP LAYER RIDGE BUILDS INTO
THE EASTERN STATES.  TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONABLE LEVELS WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND TO A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL BY THURSDAY. /29

&&

.MARINE...A WELL DEFINED SURFACE LOW OVER THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS
THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE EASTERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT. WITH THIS PATTERN A
STRONG NORTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE MARINE AREA
THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING WITH FREQUENT WIND GUSTS TO NEAR GALE
FORCE...MOSTLY WELL OFFSHORE...GENERALLY SOUTH OF PENSACOLA AND
DESTIN STRETCHING EASTWARD. SEAS UP TO 9 FT WILL BE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY TO THE EAST WELL OFFSHORE. NORTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS WILL
BEGIN DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE
MAIN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST OF THE MARINE AREA
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED BY A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH BY WEDNESDAY
RESULTING IN A LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW LATER IN THE WEEK. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      69  50  76  53  79 /  60  10  05  05  05
PENSACOLA   66  53  75  56  76 /  80  20  05  05  05
DESTIN      65  54  72  57  73 /  90  40  10  05  00
EVERGREEN   63  48  74  50  77 /  80  30  05  05  05
WAYNESBORO  66  47  76  49  80 /  50  20  05  05  05
CAMDEN      63  48  74  50  77 /  80  30  05  00  00
CRESTVIEW   64  49  73  49  77 /  90  40  05  05  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COVINGTON...

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...INLAND OKALOOSA...
     INLAND SANTA ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...NORTHERN
     MOBILE BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...PERDIDO BAY...SOUTHERN
     MOBILE BAY...

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20
     NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO 11 AM SATURDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO
     PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL
     TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO
     PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO
     PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...

&&

$$













000
FXUS64 KMOB 181704 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1204 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.UPDATE...WAVE OF FRONTAL LOW PRESSURE WAS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEAST
OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF. ORGANIZED RAINS HAVE SHIFTED A BIT
MORE EAST...BEING MORE CONFINED OVER COVINGTON COUNTY ALABAMA TO
ACROSS SANTA ROSA AND OKALOOSA COUNTIES OVER THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE. THIS REQUIRES AN UPDATE TO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WHICH
REMOVES THE WESTERN PORTIONS WHERE RAIN COVERAGE HAS LESSENED.
REMAINDER OF WATCH CONTINUES THROUGH 18.23Z/6 PM CDT LOCAL. /10

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1040 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

MARINE...MARINE PACKAGE UPDATED TO REFLECT WINDS WITH FREQUENT
GUSTS TO GALE FORCE.

/16

.FROM PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 518 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...LATEST GUIDANCE FROM BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW THE LOW CENTER TRACKING NE TOWARDS THE EAST FLORIDA
PANHANDLE MOVING JUST SOUTH OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA BY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH CONTINUES TO PLACE THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL
OVER EASTERN AND COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE CWFA THROUGH ABOUT 18Z TODAY
THEN TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. ALOFT GOOD
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS STILL NOTED IN THE GUIDANCE MOSTLY OVER THE
ADJACENT GULF WATERS STRETCHING SOUTH TO BEYOND 60NM FROM SHORE AND
INLAND MOSTLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWFA THROUGH EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON THEN GRADUALLY WEAKENING THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING. AS THE
SFC LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OVER THE NEAR SHORE GULF WATERS HEAVIER
RAINBANDS MAINLY EAST AND NORTH OF THE LOW CENTER WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT THE AREAS MENTIONED ABOVE RESULTING IN RAINFALL TOTALS BETWEEN
2 AND 4 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER
THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE STRETCHING NORTHWARD OVER PARTS OF
SOUTH CENTRAL AL GENERALLY EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR. AS A RESULT
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THESE AREAS MENTIONED
ABOVE THOUGH BELIEVE WE WILL SEE SOME WESTERN COUNTIES DROPPED FROM
THE WATCH BY LATE THIS MORNING OR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE HEAVIER
RAIN SHIFTS MORE TO THE EAST. WITH THIS HAVE MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO THE
EARLIER FORECAST MOSTLY KEEPING SLIGHTLY BETTER RAIN CHANCES ON THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW THROUGH THIS EVENING. AS FOR TEMPS
WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE CURRENT MAV GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY THROUGH
UNDERCUTTING THESE VALUES A DEGREE OR TWO DUE TO CLOUDS AND RAIN. FOR
TONIGHT WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE COOLER MAV GUIDANCE DUE TO WRAP AROUND
CLOUDS AND MOISTURE COMBINED WITH A GOOD NORTHERLY FLOW NEAR THE SFC.
32/EE

FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE LOCATED
NEAR THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA PENINSULA SATURDAY MORNING AND CONTINUES
OFF INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC LATER IN THE DAY...WITH THE ASSOCIATED
UPPER LOW FOLLOWING SOON AFTER.  UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH SUNDAY.  WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION WITH THE DEPARTING
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH A DRY
FORECAST CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY THEN RETURN TO SEASONABLE
VALUES BY SUNDAY. /29

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...UPPER RIDGING SHIFTS EAST OF
THE AREA ON MONDAY AS AN UPPER TROF ADVANCES INTO THE EASTERN STATES
THROUGH TUESDAY.  A SURFACE LOW WELL TO THE NORTH BRINGS A WEAKENING
TRAILING COLD FRONT INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES WHICH MOVES THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING.  A DRY FORECAST
CONTINUES FOR MONDAY THEN WILL HAVE SMALL POPS RETURN TO THE
NORTHWESTERN PORTION MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
FRONT...THEN CHANCE POPS AREA WIDE FOR TUESDAY.  WILL HAVE SMALL
POPS OVER THE EASTERN PORTION TUESDAY EVENING BUT OTHERWISE A DRY
FORECAST FOLLOWS THROUGH THURSDAY AS A DEEP LAYER RIDGE BUILDS INTO
THE EASTERN STATES.  TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONABLE LEVELS WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND TO A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL BY THURSDAY. /29

&&

.AVIATION [12Z ISSUANCE]...LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT 18.18Z
FOLLOWED BY MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT 20.09Z THEN MVFR TO VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH 20.12Z. LOW CLOUDS...LIGHT FOG AND PERSISTENT RAIN
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY TODAY THEN TAPER OFF SLOWLY FROM
WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE
NORTH AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS THROUGH EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS THROUGH TONIGHT
AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. 32/EE

&&

.MARINE...A WELL DEFINED SURFACE LOW OVER THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS
THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE EASTERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT. WITH THIS PATTERN A
STRONG NORTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE MARINE AREA
THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING WITH FREQUENT WIND GUSTS TO NEAR GALE
FORCE...MOSTLY WELL OFFSHORE...GENERALLY SOUTH OF PENSACOLA AND
DESTIN STRETCHING EASTWARD. SEAS UP TO 9 FT WILL BE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY TO THE EAST WELL OFFSHORE. NORTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS WILL
BEGIN DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE
MAIN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST OF THE MARINE AREA
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED BY A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH BY WEDNESDAY
RESULTING IN A LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW LATER IN THE WEEK. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      69  50  76  53  79 /  60  10  05  05  05
PENSACOLA   66  53  75  56  76 /  80  20  05  05  05
DESTIN      65  54  72  57  73 /  90  40  10  05  00
EVERGREEN   63  48  74  50  77 /  80  30  05  05  05
WAYNESBORO  66  47  76  49  80 /  50  20  05  05  05
CAMDEN      63  48  74  50  77 /  80  30  05  00  00
CRESTVIEW   64  49  73  49  77 /  90  40  05  05  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COVINGTON...

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...INLAND OKALOOSA...
     INLAND SANTA ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...NORTHERN
     MOBILE BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...PERDIDO BAY...SOUTHERN
     MOBILE BAY...

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20
     NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO 11 AM SATURDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO
     PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL
     TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO
     PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO
     PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...

&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KMOB 181538 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE TO MARINE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1040 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.MARINE...MARINE PACKAGE UPDATED TO REFLECT WINDS WITH FREQUENT
GUSTS TO GALE FORCE.

/16

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     CONECUH...COVINGTON...ESCAMBIA...LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER
     MOBILE...UPPER BALDWIN...UPPER MOBILE...

FL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...
     INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...INLAND SANTA ROSA...

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...NORTHERN
     MOBILE BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...PERDIDO BAY...SOUTHERN
     MOBILE BAY...

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20
     NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO 11 AM SATURDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO
     PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL
     TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO
     PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO
     PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMOB 181018
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
518 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...LATEST SATELLITE LOOPS STARTING
TO SHOW A MORE DEFINED SFC LOW OVER THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS
APPROXIMATELY 60NM EAST ENE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MS RIVER MEANDERING
TO THE NORTH AND EAST DURING THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. LATEST
GUIDANCE FROM BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE LOW CENTER TRACKING NE
TOWARDS THE EAST FLORIDA PANHANDLE MOVING JUST SOUTH OF APALACHICOLA
FLORIDA BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WHICH CONTINUES TO PLACE THE
HEAVIEST AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL OVER EASTERN AND COASTAL SECTIONS OF
THE CWFA THROUGH ABOUT 18Z TODAY THEN TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THIS EVENING. ALOFT GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS STILL
NOTED IN THE GUIDANCE MOSTLY OVER THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS
STRETCHING SOUTH TO BEYOND 60NM FROM SHORE AND INLAND MOSTLY OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWFA THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THEN
GRADUALLY WEAKENING THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING. AS THE SFC LOW
CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OVER THE NEAR SHORE GULF WATERS HEAVIER
RAINBANDS MAINLY EAST AND NORTH OF THE LOW CENTER WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT THE AREAS MENTIONED ABOVE RESULTING IN RAINFALL TOTALS
BETWEEN 2 AND 4 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE STRETCHING NORTHWARD
OVER PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AL GENERALLY EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR.
AS A RESULT WILL CONTINUE WITH THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THESE AREAS
MENTIONED ABOVE THOUGH BELIEVE WE WILL SEE SOME WESTERN COUNTIES
DROPPED FROM THE WATCH BY LATE THIS MORNING OR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE HEAVIER RAIN SHIFTS MORE TO THE EAST. WITH THIS HAVE MADE A
FEW TWEAKS TO THE EARLIER FORECAST MOSTLY KEEPING SLIGHTLY BETTER
RAIN CHANCES ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW THROUGH THIS
EVENING. AS FOR TEMPS WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE CURRENT MAV GUIDANCE FOR
HIGHS TODAY THROUGH UNDERCUTTING THESE VALUES A DEGREE OR TWO DUE TO
CLOUDS AND RAIN. FOR TONIGHT WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE COOLER MAV
GUIDANCE DUE TO WRAP AROUND CLOUDS AND MOISTURE COMBINED WITH A GOOD
NORTHERLY FLOW NEAR THE SFC. 32/EE

FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE LOCATED
NEAR THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA PENINSULA SATURDAY MORNING AND CONTINUES
OFF INTO THE WESTERN ALTANTIC LATER IN THE DAY...WITH THE ASSOCIATED
UPPER LOW FOLLOWING SOON AFTER.  UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH SUNDAY.  WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION WITH THE DEPARTING
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH A DRY
FORECAST CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY THEN RETURN TO SEASONABLE
VALUES BY SUNDAY. /29

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...UPPER RIDGING SHIFTS EAST OF
THE AREA ON MONDAY AS AN UPPER TROF ADVANCES INTO THE EASTERN STATES
THROUGH TUESDAY.  A SURFACE LOW WELL TO THE NORTH BRINGS A WEAKENING
TRAILING COLD FRONT INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES WHICH MOVES THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING.  A DRY FORECAST
CONTINUES FOR MONDAY THEN WILL HAVE SMALL POPS RETURN TO THE
NORTHWESTERN PORTION MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
FRONT...THEN CHANCE POPS AREA WIDE FOR TUESDAY.  WILL HAVE SMALL
POPS OVER THE EASTERN PORTION TUESDAY EVENING BUT OTHERWISE A DRY
FORECAST FOLLOWS THROUGH THURSDAY AS A DEEP LAYER RIDGE BUILDS INTO
THE EASTERN STATES.  TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONABLE LEVELS WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND TO A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL BY THURSDAY. /29

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE...LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT 18.18Z FOLLOWED
BY MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT 20.09Z THEN MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH 20.12Z. LOW CLOUDS...LIGHT FOG AND PERSISTENT RAIN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY TODAY THEN TAPER OFF SLOWLY FROM WEST
TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE
NORTH AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS THROUGH EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS THROUGH TONIGHT
AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. 32/EE

&&

.MARINE...A WELL DEFINED SURFACE LOW OVER THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS
THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE EASTERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT. WITH THIS PATTERN A
STRONG NORTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE MARINE AREA
THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING WITH FREQUENT WIND GUSTS TO NEAR GALE
FORCE...MOSTLY WELL OFFSHORE...GENERALLY SOUTH OF PENSACOLA AND
DESTIN STRETCHING EASTWARD. SEAS UP TO 9 FT WILL BE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY TO THE EAST WELL OFFSHORE. NORTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS WILL
BEGIN DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE
MAIN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST OF THE MARINE AREA
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED BY A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH BY WEDNESDAY
RESULTING IN A LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW LATER IN THE WEEK. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      69  50  76  53  79 /  60  10  05  05  05
PENSACOLA   66  53  75  56  76 /  80  20  05  05  05
DESTIN      65  54  72  57  73 /  90  40  10  05  00
EVERGREEN   63  48  74  50  77 /  80  30  05  05  05
WAYNESBORO  66  47  76  49  80 /  50  20  05  05  05
CAMDEN      63  48  74  50  77 /  80  30  05  00  00
CRESTVIEW   64  49  73  49  77 /  90  40  05  05  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     CONECUH...COVINGTON...ESCAMBIA...LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER
     MOBILE...UPPER BALDWIN...UPPER MOBILE...

FL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...
     INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...INLAND SANTA ROSA...

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO
     PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL
     TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...NORTHERN
     MOBILE BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...PERDIDO BAY...SOUTHERN
     MOBILE BAY...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMOB 180017
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
717 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014


.AVIATION UPDATE (00Z ISSUANCE)...FLYING WEATHER WILL DETERIORATE
OVERNIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW EJECTING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE GULF
APPROACHES THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND MVFR TO IFR
CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW. BY LATE MORNING...AFTERNOON
VFR CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST AND A
STRONG NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL FOLLOW IN THE LOWS WAKE. /08 JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      58  70  50  76  53 /  80  60  05  05  00
PENSACOLA   59  65  53  75  56 /  90  80  30  05  00
DESTIN      60  63  55  72  56 / 100  90  40  10  00
EVERGREEN   55  61  47  75  48 /  90  80  30  05  00
WAYNESBORO  57  68  46  77  48 /  60  60  05  05  00
CAMDEN      54  61  47  75  49 /  90  60  30  05  00
CRESTVIEW   56  60  50  75  50 / 100  90  40  10  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     CONECUH...COVINGTON...ESCAMBIA...LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER
     MOBILE...UPPER BALDWIN...UPPER MOBILE...

FL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...
     INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...INLAND SANTA ROSA...

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO
     PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL
     TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...NORTHERN
     MOBILE BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...PERDIDO BAY...SOUTHERN
     MOBILE BAY...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...

&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KMOB 172037
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
337 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

...ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING LIKELY LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY...

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...FIRST TWO PERIODS OF
FORECAST DOMINATED BY SURFACE LOW EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE CENTRAL
GULF AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES EAST OVER THE PLAINS AND LOWER MISS
RIVER VALLEY. THIS SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO TAKE A NORTHEAST
TRACK...WITH THE CENTER OF THE CIRCULATION PASSING SOUTH OF THE
MARINE PORTION OF THE FA LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WITH THE
CURRENT TRACK...GOOD ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL AFFECT THE FA TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE CENTERED AROUND 12Z FRIDAY.
LOOKING AT THE SOUNDINGS...SOME MID LEVEL INSTABILITY IS INITIALLY
PRESENT THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ADDING TO THE
RAINFALL RATES....ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST. THE UPPER DYNAMICS
ORGANIZE INTO A CLOSED SYSTEM...AND WITH LOW/MID LEVEL DYNAMICS
ADDING TO THE FRAY...FEEL 2-4 INCHES OF RAIN IS LIKELY...WITH LOCAL
AMOUNTS TO 6 INCHES. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MOBILE
COUNTY EAST AND A BIT NORTH TO INCLUDE THE FL PANHANDLE AND
COVINGTON COUNTY HAS BEEN ISSUED.

THE UPPER SYSTEM BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN AL/MS STATE LINE
BY 00Z SATURDAY. AM EXPECTING THE RAIN TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WITH EASTERN AREAS OF THE FA SEEING RAIN
AND CLOUDS LONGER...TEMPS SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER THAN SEASONAL
EXPECTED...CLOSER TO SEASONAL OVER THE WEST WITH SOME DAYTIME
HEATING EXPECTED TO OCCUR. /16

THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK EAST INTO SOUTHERN
GEORGIA/NORTHERN FLORIDA BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. THE 12Z ECMWF HAS
TRENDED A LITTLE SLOWER WITH ITS EASTWARD MOVEMENT...AND AS A RESULT
DELAYS THE EXIT OF CLOUDS/RAIN CHANCES OVER THE EASTERN ZONES.
THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS
FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH CLOUDS LINGERING
THROUGH THE NIGHT. ANY RAIN THAT FALLS FRIDAY EVENING WILL BE ON THE
LIGHTER SIDE AND NOT EXPECTED TO CAUSE ANY ADDITIONAL FLOODING
CONCERNS.

THE STORM SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES FURTHER EAST ON SATURDAY...BUT SOME
WRAP AROUND CLOUDS WILL LIKELY AFFECT EASTERN AREAS THROUGH THE DAY.
HOWEVER...ALL RAINFALL WILL BE WELL EAST OF THE AREA. HIGHS
CLIMB INTO THE LOW 70S FAR EAST WEST UPPER 70S OVER WESTERN ZONES.
UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SKIES CLEARING.
34/JFB

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...UPPER RIDGING SHIFTS SLOWLY
ACROSS THE REGION WITH AN UPPER TROUGH BUILDING INTO THE REGION MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. A DRY FORECAST CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY AS A
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE AREA SHIFTS SLOWLY EASTWARD ALLOWING FOR A
LIGHT RETURN FLOW TO BECOME ESTABLISHED. THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES
EASTWARD THROUGH TUESDAY WHILE A SURFACE LOW WELL TO THE NORTH BRINGS
A WEAK TRAILING COLD FRONT INTO THE GULF COAST STATES. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THEN RETURNS
NORTHWARD BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. POPS INCREASE TO
CHANCE FOR MOST OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. HAVE STAYED WITH A DRY
FORECAST FOR NOW FOR WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY AS DRIER DEEP LAYER AIR
FLOWS INTO THE REGION. NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY TREND
TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE TUE-THU. 29/34

&&

.AVIATION...18Z ISSUANCE...WILD CARD FOR THE FORECAST IS SURFACE LOW
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL GULF TODAY AND HEAD NE. CIGS
EXPECTED TO DROP INTO IFR OR LOWER LEVELS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SE-
ERN THIRD OF THE AREA. FORECAST POINTS EXPECTED TO SEE DROPS INTO IFR
LEVELS...WITH TEMPS DROPS INTO LIFR LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. CIGS EXPECTED TO RISE LATER IN THE DAY FRIDAY AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
FORECAST. /16

&&

.MARINE...STRONG EASTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY LATER TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY AS A SURFACE LOW FORMING OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEX
HEADS NORTHEAST. THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL SETTLE LATER FRIDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVER...THEN EAST OF THE
AREA...FROM OVER THE PLAINS TO ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY SUNDAY
MORNING. /16

&&

.HYDROLOGY...NEW RIVER FORECASTS HAVE BEEN RUN THIS AFTERNOON TO
INCORPORATE THE NEW 2-4" RAINFALL FORECAST. THIS NOW PLACES THE
FOLLOWING RIVERS INTO MINOR FLOOD STAGE:

FISH RIVER AT SILVERHILL
STYX RIVER AT ELSANOR
PERDIDO RIVER AT BARRINEAU PARK
ESCAMBIA RIVER AT CENTURY (CONTINUED MINOR FLOODING)
SHOAL RIVER AT CRESTVIEW

LOCATIONS ALONG THE BLACKWATER RIVER AND BIG COLDWATER CREEK CREST
JUST BELOW FLOOD STAGE. KEEP IN MIND THAT ADDITIONAL RISES ARE
POSSIBLE...DEPENDING ON WHERE THE HEAVIER AXIS OF RAINFALL SETS UP.

RIVER STREAMFLOWS ARE RUNNING WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND THE ADDITIONAL
HEAVY RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN MANY SMALLER CREEKS...STREAMS...AND
TRIBUTARIES QUICKLY SWELLING AND POTENTIALLY FLOODING NEARBY AREAS.
34/JFB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      58  70  50  76  53 /  80  60  05  05  00
PENSACOLA   59  65  53  75  56 /  90  80  30  05  00
DESTIN      60  63  55  72  56 / 100  90  40  10  00
EVERGREEN   55  61  47  75  48 /  90  80  30  05  00
WAYNESBORO  57  68  46  77  48 /  60  60  05  05  00
CAMDEN      54  61  47  75  49 /  90  60  30  05  00
CRESTVIEW   56  60  50  75  50 / 100  90  40  10  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 10 AM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM THURSDAY TO 6 PM FRIDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: CONECUH...COVINGTON...ESCAMBIA...LOWER
     BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...UPPER BALDWIN...UPPER MOBILE...

FL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM THURSDAY TO 6 PM FRIDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...
     COASTAL SANTA ROSA...INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...
     INLAND SANTA ROSA...

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 10 AM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA
     ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO
     PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL
     TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...NORTHERN
     MOBILE BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...PERDIDO BAY...SOUTHERN
     MOBILE BAY...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...

&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KMOB 171624 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE TO PUBLIC AND AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1120 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED PACKAGE TO INCLUDE HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK
ALONG AREA BEACHES. OTHERWISE...TEMP CURVE PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK.
MORNING GUIDANCE COMING IN AND HAVE CONCERN FOR WATER PROBLEMS OVER
THE SE-ERN THIRD OF THE FA.

/16

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z ISSUANCE...WILD CARD FOR THE FORECAST IS SURFACE LOW EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL GULF TODAY AND HEAD NE. CIGS EXPECTED TO
DROP INTO IFR OR LOWER LEVELS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SE-ERN THIRD OF
THE AREA. FORECAST POINTS EXPECTED TO SEE DROPS INTO IFR
LEVELS...WITH TEMPS DROPS INTO LIFR LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. CIGS EXPECTED TO RISE LATER IN THE DAY FRIDAY AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE FORECAST.

/16

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND
70. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...HOWEVER
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE MARINE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AS A SFC LOW DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND
MOVES NORTHEAST. A LARGE SHIELD OF RAIN WILL LIKELY SPREAD INLAND
LATE TONIGHT AS ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES TO THE NORTH OF THE
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. ANY INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN WELL
OFFSHORE WITH THIS SYSTEM SO THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. AS A
RESULT...RAIN CHANCES HAVE BEEN INCREASED TONIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA. THE CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL KEEP TEMPS MUCH WARMER TONIGHT...IN
THE MID AND UPPER 50S. /13

FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE
EXTREME SOUTHEAST STATES FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE AXIS OF A
LONGWAVE TROF ADVANCES ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES.  THE UPPER LOW
DEEPENS WHILE CONTINUING EASTWARD AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE UPPER RIDGING BUILDS
INTO THE FORECAST AREA.  AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL BE LOCATED
ABOUT 100 MILES SOUTH OF PNS AT 12Z FRIDAY AND ADVANCES SLOWLY
EASTWARD...MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING USING A BLEND OF THE SLOWER
ECMWF/CMC/UKMET/NAM COMPARED TO THE QUICKER GFS.  THIS SYSTEM
SUPPORTS CATEGORICAL POPS GENERALLY EAST OF I-65 FRIDAY MORNING
TAPERING TO CHANCE POPS OVER THE WESTERNMOST PORTION...THEN POPS
TAPER OFF TO DRY CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE AREA BY LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST.  RAINFALL EVENT TOTALS HAVE
BEEN INCREASED FURTHER TO BE ABOUT 1-1.5 INCHES EAST OF I-65
TAPERING TO NEAR 0.3 INCHES OVER THE WESTERNMOST PORTION.
CONSIDERED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES EAST OF I-65
GIVEN RECENT HEAVY RAINS IN THIS PORTION BUT NOT CONFIDENT AT THIS
POINT THAT RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE SUFFICIENT.  A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SURFACE LOW AND WILL
HAVE DRY CONDITIONS FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.  TEMPERATURES
WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY DUE TO RAIN AND HEAVY
CLOUD COVER THEN TEMPERATURES TREND CLOSER TO SEASONABLE VALUES ON
SATURDAY. /29

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...UPPER RIDGING SHIFTS SLOWLY
ACROSS THE REGION WITH AN UPPER TROF BUILDING INTO THE REGION MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT.  A DRY FORECAST CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY AS A
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE AREA SHIFTS SLOWLY EASTWARD ALLOWING FOR A
LIGHT RETURN FLOW TO BECOME ESTABLISHED.  THE UPPER TROF CONTINUES
EASTWARD THROUGH TUESDAY WHILE A SURFACE LOW WELL TO THE NORTH
BRINGS A WEAK TRAILING COLD FRONT INTO THE GULF COAST STATES.  THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THEN
RETURNS NORTHWARD BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY.  POPS
INCREASE TO CHANCE FOR MOST OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY WITH THE APPROACH
OF THE FRONT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT.  HAVE STAYED
WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW FOR WEDNESDAY AS DRIER DEEP LAYER AIR
FLOWS INTO THE REGION.  NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY TREND
TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY. /29

&&

.MARINE...MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME NORTHERLY ON
FRIDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL DECREASE ON SATURDAY AND
BECOME EASTERLY LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF. /13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      70  57  69  50  75 /  20  80  70  10  05
PENSACOLA   68  60  66  52  74 /  20  80  90  20  05
DESTIN      69  62  64  55  71 /  20  80  90  20  10
EVERGREEN   70  55  63  47  73 /  05  70  80  20  05
WAYNESBORO  68  55  69  46  76 /  05  60  40  10  05
CAMDEN      70  54  63  46  74 /  10  60  70  20  05
CRESTVIEW   72  57  63  46  74 /  10  80  90  20  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 10 AM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 10 AM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA
     ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO
     PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL
     TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...NORTHERN
     MOBILE BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...PERDIDO BAY...SOUTHERN
     MOBILE BAY...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...

&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KMOB 170904
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
404 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND
70. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...HOWEVER
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE MARINE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AS A SFC LOW DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND
MOVES NORTHEAST. A LARGE SHIELD OF RAIN WILL LIKELY SPREAD INLAND
LATE TONIGHT AS ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES TO THE NORTH OF THE
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. ANY INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN WELL
OFFSHORE WITH THIS SYSTEM SO THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. AS A
RESULT...RAIN CHANCES HAVE BEEN INCREASED TONIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA. THE CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL KEEP TEMPS MUCH WARMER TONIGHT...IN
THE MID AND UPPER 50S. /13

FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE
EXTREME SOUTHEAST STATES FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE AXIS OF A
LONGWAVE TROF ADVANCES ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES.  THE UPPER LOW
DEEPENS WHILE CONTINUING EASTWARD AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE UPPER RIDGING BUILDS
INTO THE FORECAST AREA.  AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL BE LOCATED
ABOUT 100 MILES SOUTH OF PNS AT 12Z FRIDAY AND ADVANCES SLOWLY
EASTWARD...MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING USING A BLEND OF THE SLOWER
ECMWF/CMC/UKMET/NAM COMPARED TO THE QUICKER GFS.  THIS SYSTEM
SUPPORTS CATEGORICAL POPS GENERALLY EAST OF I-65 FRIDAY MORNING
TAPERING TO CHANCE POPS OVER THE WESTERNMOST PORTION...THEN POPS
TAPER OFF TO DRY CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE AREA BY LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST.  RAINFALL EVENT TOTALS HAVE
BEEN INCREASED FURTHER TO BE ABOUT 1-1.5 INCHES EAST OF I-65
TAPERING TO NEAR 0.3 INCHES OVER THE WESTERNMOST PORTION.
CONSIDERED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES EAST OF I-65
GIVEN RECENT HEAVY RAINS IN THIS PORTION BUT NOT CONFIDENT AT THIS
POINT THAT RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE SUFFICIENT.  A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SURFACE LOW AND WILL
HAVE DRY CONDITIONS FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.  TEMPERATURES
WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY DUE TO RAIN AND HEAVY
CLOUD COVER THEN TEMPERATURES TREND CLOSER TO SEASONABLE VALUES ON
SATURDAY. /29

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...UPPER RIDGING SHIFTS SLOWLY
ACROSS THE REGION WITH AN UPPER TROF BUILDING INTO THE REGION MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT.  A DRY FORECAST CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY AS A
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE AREA SHIFTS SLOWLY EASTWARD ALLOWING FOR A
LIGHT RETURN FLOW TO BECOME ESTABLISHED.  THE UPPER TROF CONTINUES
EASTWARD THROUGH TUESDAY WHILE A SURFACE LOW WELL TO THE NORTH
BRINGS A WEAK TRAILING COLD FRONT INTO THE GULF COAST STATES.  THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THEN
RETURNS NORTHWARD BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY.  POPS
INCREASE TO CHANCE FOR MOST OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY WITH THE APPROACH
OF THE FRONT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT.  HAVE STAYED
WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW FOR WEDNESDAY AS DRIER DEEP LAYER AIR
FLOWS INTO THE REGION.  NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY TREND
TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY. /29

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE...CEILINGS WILL LOWER THROUGH THE DAY AS RAIN INCREASES
FROM THE SOUTH ESPECIALLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH
SHOWERS BECOMING LIKELY AT ALL TERMINALS AFTER 18.00Z. /13

&&

.MARINE...MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME NORTHERLY ON
FRIDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL DECREASE ON SATURDAY AND
BECOME EASTERLY LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF. /13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      70  57  69  50  75 /  20  80  70  10  05
PENSACOLA   68  60  66  52  74 /  20  80  90  20  05
DESTIN      69  62  64  55  71 /  20  80  90  20  10
EVERGREEN   70  55  63  47  73 /  05  70  80  20  05
WAYNESBORO  68  55  69  46  76 /  05  60  40  10  05
CAMDEN      70  54  63  46  74 /  10  60  70  20  05
CRESTVIEW   72  57  63  46  74 /  10  80  90  20  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO
     PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL
     TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...NORTHERN
     MOBILE BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...PERDIDO BAY...SOUTHERN
     MOBILE BAY...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMOB 170457 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1157 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.AVIATION [06Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION]...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO START OFF THIS TERMINAL FORECAST PERIOD WITH SOME
SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER PASSING OVERHEAD. INCREASING LOW
LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL BRING MVFR CEILINGS INTO THE LOCAL
TERMINALS MAINLY AFTER 17/09Z...WITH MVFR TO VFR CEILINGS LINGERING
INTO THE DAY THURSDAY. IFR CIGS SHOULD BE LIMITED/LOWER IN
PROBABILITY...BUT MAY STILL SKIRT NEAR THE KPNS TERMINAL FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME EAST AT
10-15 KNOTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. /21

&&

.MARINE UPDATE...EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE
MARINE AREA LATE TONIGHT...WITH INCREASED FLOW CONTINUING THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FEET OUT 20 NM...AND
5 TO AS HIGH AS 8 FEET WELL OFFSHORE. WE HAVE EXTENDED THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. /21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      45  71  57  73  54 /  05  10  50  50  10
PENSACOLA   50  69  59  71  55 /  05  20  60  60  20
DESTIN      55  68  60  69  58 /  05  20  70  70  30
EVERGREEN   44  70  55  71  50 /  05  10  40  50  20
WAYNESBORO  41  70  55  73  51 /  05  10  20  20  10
CAMDEN      42  70  54  71  50 /  05  10  20  40  10
CRESTVIEW   43  71  57  70  51 /  05  20  60  60  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO
     PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL
     TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...NORTHERN
     MOBILE BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...PERDIDO BAY...SOUTHERN
     MOBILE BAY...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...

&&

$$

21/08






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