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000
FXUS64 KMOB 220935
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
435 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...FOR TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...
DIURNAL PATTERN OF OVERNIGHT MARINE CONVECTION AND DAYTIME INLAND
CONVECTION CONTINUES. OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS CONVECTION HAS
INCREASED IN COVERAGE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...AND WILL LIKELY SEE A LITTLE MORE OFFSHORE DEVELOPMENT
THROUGH SUNRISE. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS...WILL AGAIN SEE SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP OVER INLAND AREAS BY
LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY/MID
EVENING HOURS. A WEAK AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATING NEARLY STATIONARY SFC
BOUNDARY ALONG THE GULF COAST CONTINUES TO SUPPLY LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND FORCING...WHILE A BROAD UPPER LOW PRODUCES UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT. THESE FEATURES...ALONG WITH DIURNAL THERMAL
TRENDS...HAVE BEEN THE PRIMARY INGREDIENTS PRODUCING THE RATHER WET
WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. THE BROAD UPPER
LOW...CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN ALABAMA EARLY THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED
TO RETROGRADE EVER SO SLOWLY TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST THROUGH
TONIGHT...BEING LOCATED OVER SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA BY LATE TONIGHT.
THIS TREND WILL BRING DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE FCST AREA...WITH THE
MAIN AXIS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WHICH HAS BEEN PRIMARILY EAST AND
SOUTH OF THE REGION BACK INTO OUR AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE OVERALL
SYSTEM IS SOMEWHAT WEAKER THAN A FEW DAYS AGO...BUT EVEN SO WE ARE
STILL EXPECTING SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. AS NOTED...CONVECTION POTENTIAL WILL SHIFT FROM ONSHORE TO
OFFSHORE AGAIN BY LATE THIS EVENING. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED...BUT A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS. ALL
WILL ALSO LIKELY PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL FOR LOCALIZED AREAS AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING. A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE AT TIMES TODAY...AS A
RESULT HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON LIKELY TO RANGED FROM THE UPPER 80S
TO LOWER 90S. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 70S AREA WIDE.
12/DS

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A COMBINATION OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE FL ATLANTIC SEABOARD BUILDING WESTWARD OVER THE GULF
OF MEX AND A PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN OVER THE US/CA BORDER HELPS TO
WEAKEN THE UPPER LOW OVER THE FA ATTM AS IT MOVES WESTWARD...ALONG
WITH TILTING THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS WEST OVER THE GULF OF MEX WITH THE WESTWARD BUILDING
UPPER RIDGE...HELPING TO RE-ESTABLISH A MORE ORGANIZED ONSHORE FLOW
OVER THE FA. GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING THE UPPER RIDGE HAVING MORE OF
AN INFLUENCE ON POPS...WITH BELOW SEASONAL CHANCE OF RAIN. FOR
TEMPS...WITH AN INCREASE IN MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER FROM THE
UPPER LOW/TROUGH ENHANCED ACTIVITY TO THE WEST...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE CLOSER TO SEASONAL LEVELS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT ON)...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH A PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN OVER THE NORTHERN CONUS
CONTINUES TO PUSH THE NORTHERN END OF THE EASTERN TROUGH EASTWARD.
THE SOUTHERN END OF THE TROUGH GETS DRAWN SOUTHWARD...OVER THE GULF
OF MEX...WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING WEST OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY FROM AN UPPER HIGH PRESENT OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. TEMPS RISE ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS WITH POPS DROPPING
BELOW.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MORE ENERGY DIVES INTO THE EASTERN
UPPER TROUGH...DIGGING IT SOUTH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...TO OVER THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEX. THIS RETURNS TEMPS AND POPS TO SEASONAL LEVELS
AS THE UPPER RIDGE STRETCHING ESE OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY
GETS PUSHED SOUTH...THEN REPLACED BY THE UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...
(22/12Z ISSUANCE)...SCATTERED CONVECTION MAINLY SOUTH OF
TERMINALS OVER NORTHERN GULF EARLY IN THE PERIOD...BUT CONVECTION
RE-INITIATING NEAR TERMINALS AND OVER LAND AREAS BY AROUND MID TO
LATE MORNING TUESDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE PROB30 FOR ALL
TERMINALS AFTER 22.1500Z TODAY. WIND LIGHT FROM THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH SOUTHWEST. 12/DS

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK AND DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST NORTH AND
INLAND FROM THE COASTAL WATERS WILL MOVE LITTLE AND CONTINUE TO
DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. OTHERWISE...A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
THROUGH LATE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN A
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE MARINE AREA THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN SEAS (GENERALLY AROUND 1-2 FEET).
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE  POSSIBLE... ESPECIALLY
LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING. RIP CURRENT POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN HIGH
ALONG THE GULF BEACHES FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY TODAY...EVEN
THOUGH ONSHORE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE DECREASING (BUT STILL
PERSISTENT). 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      90  71  91  72  90 /  40  20  20  20  40
PENSACOLA   89  74  90  74  90 /  50  20  20  20  30
DESTIN      85  78  89  76  87 /  40  20  20  20  30
EVERGREEN   89  70  92  70  92 /  50  30  20  20  40
WAYNESBORO  90  69  93  70  91 /  50  30  30  20  40
CAMDEN      89  70  93  70  93 /  50  30  20  20  40
CRESTVIEW   90  67  93  71  92 /  50  20  20  20  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA
     ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

12/16






000
FXUS64 KMOB 220935
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
435 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...FOR TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...
DIURNAL PATTERN OF OVERNIGHT MARINE CONVECTION AND DAYTIME INLAND
CONVECTION CONTINUES. OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS CONVECTION HAS
INCREASED IN COVERAGE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...AND WILL LIKELY SEE A LITTLE MORE OFFSHORE DEVELOPMENT
THROUGH SUNRISE. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS...WILL AGAIN SEE SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP OVER INLAND AREAS BY
LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY/MID
EVENING HOURS. A WEAK AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATING NEARLY STATIONARY SFC
BOUNDARY ALONG THE GULF COAST CONTINUES TO SUPPLY LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND FORCING...WHILE A BROAD UPPER LOW PRODUCES UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT. THESE FEATURES...ALONG WITH DIURNAL THERMAL
TRENDS...HAVE BEEN THE PRIMARY INGREDIENTS PRODUCING THE RATHER WET
WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. THE BROAD UPPER
LOW...CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN ALABAMA EARLY THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED
TO RETROGRADE EVER SO SLOWLY TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST THROUGH
TONIGHT...BEING LOCATED OVER SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA BY LATE TONIGHT.
THIS TREND WILL BRING DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE FCST AREA...WITH THE
MAIN AXIS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WHICH HAS BEEN PRIMARILY EAST AND
SOUTH OF THE REGION BACK INTO OUR AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE OVERALL
SYSTEM IS SOMEWHAT WEAKER THAN A FEW DAYS AGO...BUT EVEN SO WE ARE
STILL EXPECTING SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. AS NOTED...CONVECTION POTENTIAL WILL SHIFT FROM ONSHORE TO
OFFSHORE AGAIN BY LATE THIS EVENING. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED...BUT A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS. ALL
WILL ALSO LIKELY PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL FOR LOCALIZED AREAS AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING. A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE AT TIMES TODAY...AS A
RESULT HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON LIKELY TO RANGED FROM THE UPPER 80S
TO LOWER 90S. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 70S AREA WIDE.
12/DS

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A COMBINATION OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE FL ATLANTIC SEABOARD BUILDING WESTWARD OVER THE GULF
OF MEX AND A PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN OVER THE US/CA BORDER HELPS TO
WEAKEN THE UPPER LOW OVER THE FA ATTM AS IT MOVES WESTWARD...ALONG
WITH TILTING THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS WEST OVER THE GULF OF MEX WITH THE WESTWARD BUILDING
UPPER RIDGE...HELPING TO RE-ESTABLISH A MORE ORGANIZED ONSHORE FLOW
OVER THE FA. GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING THE UPPER RIDGE HAVING MORE OF
AN INFLUENCE ON POPS...WITH BELOW SEASONAL CHANCE OF RAIN. FOR
TEMPS...WITH AN INCREASE IN MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER FROM THE
UPPER LOW/TROUGH ENHANCED ACTIVITY TO THE WEST...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE CLOSER TO SEASONAL LEVELS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT ON)...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH A PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN OVER THE NORTHERN CONUS
CONTINUES TO PUSH THE NORTHERN END OF THE EASTERN TROUGH EASTWARD.
THE SOUTHERN END OF THE TROUGH GETS DRAWN SOUTHWARD...OVER THE GULF
OF MEX...WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING WEST OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY FROM AN UPPER HIGH PRESENT OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. TEMPS RISE ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS WITH POPS DROPPING
BELOW.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MORE ENERGY DIVES INTO THE EASTERN
UPPER TROUGH...DIGGING IT SOUTH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...TO OVER THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEX. THIS RETURNS TEMPS AND POPS TO SEASONAL LEVELS
AS THE UPPER RIDGE STRETCHING ESE OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY
GETS PUSHED SOUTH...THEN REPLACED BY THE UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...
(22/12Z ISSUANCE)...SCATTERED CONVECTION MAINLY SOUTH OF
TERMINALS OVER NORTHERN GULF EARLY IN THE PERIOD...BUT CONVECTION
RE-INITIATING NEAR TERMINALS AND OVER LAND AREAS BY AROUND MID TO
LATE MORNING TUESDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE PROB30 FOR ALL
TERMINALS AFTER 22.1500Z TODAY. WIND LIGHT FROM THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH SOUTHWEST. 12/DS

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK AND DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST NORTH AND
INLAND FROM THE COASTAL WATERS WILL MOVE LITTLE AND CONTINUE TO
DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. OTHERWISE...A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
THROUGH LATE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN A
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE MARINE AREA THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN SEAS (GENERALLY AROUND 1-2 FEET).
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE  POSSIBLE... ESPECIALLY
LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING. RIP CURRENT POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN HIGH
ALONG THE GULF BEACHES FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY TODAY...EVEN
THOUGH ONSHORE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE DECREASING (BUT STILL
PERSISTENT). 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      90  71  91  72  90 /  40  20  20  20  40
PENSACOLA   89  74  90  74  90 /  50  20  20  20  30
DESTIN      85  78  89  76  87 /  40  20  20  20  30
EVERGREEN   89  70  92  70  92 /  50  30  20  20  40
WAYNESBORO  90  69  93  70  91 /  50  30  30  20  40
CAMDEN      89  70  93  70  93 /  50  30  20  20  40
CRESTVIEW   90  67  93  71  92 /  50  20  20  20  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA
     ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

12/16







000
FXUS64 KMOB 220455
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1155 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

.AVIATION UPDATE...SCATTERED CONVECTION MOSTLY IN THE EASTERN REGION
OF OUR AREA...ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW...SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT BEFORE RE-INITIATING AROUND MID TO LATE MORNING. HENCE WE
BROUGHT IN A PROB30 TO ALL TERMINALS AFTER 22.1500Z. WIND LIGHT FROM
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 924 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014/

MESOSCALE UPDATE...A CLOSED LOW AT 500 MB IS ROTATING CONVECTIVE
CELLS AROUND A CENTER LOCATED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA IN THE
VICINITY OF MONROE COUNTY. HOWEVER...DESPITE THE LOSS OF SUNLIGHT THE
CONVECTION HAS NOT SHOWN SIGNS OF COMPLETE DISAPPEARANCE...BUT HAS
WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY. WE HAVE THEREFORE CUT BACK POPS GEOGRAPHICALLY
COMMENSURATE WITH WHAT IS BEING OBSERVED ON RADAR. /77

MARINE UPDATE...CONVECTION DRIFTING TOWARD THE GULF WILL LIKELY
INTENSIFY AND WE HAVE DECIDED TO PREPARE THE COASTAL WATERS UPDATE
FORECAST FOR THAT PROSPECT. /77

COASTAL REGIONS AND BEACH UPDATE...AND ADDENDA TO PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION OF 722 PM...REPORTS OF NUMEROUS RIP CURRENTS OBSERVED
ALONG GULF BEACHES HAS NECESSITATED AN EXTENSION OF OUR ASSESSMENT OF
A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK. THIS ASSESSMENT IS EXTENDED UNTIL 7 AM
TUESDAY. MODERATE RISK IS EXPECTED THEREAFTER. /77

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 722 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014/

UPDATE...UPDATED FOR EXTENSION OF THE HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
THROUGH TONIGHT. NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES. /29

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      71  89  71  91  73 /  20  30  20  30  20
PENSACOLA   74  88  75  89  76 /  30  30  20  30  20
DESTIN      76  87  77  86  77 /  40  30  20  30  20
EVERGREEN   69  90  69  92  71 /  30  40  20  30  20
WAYNESBORO  68  89  68  92  71 /  10  40  20  30  20
CAMDEN      69  89  70  92  71 /  20  40  20  30  20
CRESTVIEW   69  91  68  92  73 /  40  40  20  30  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA
     ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMOB 220455
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1155 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

.AVIATION UPDATE...SCATTERED CONVECTION MOSTLY IN THE EASTERN REGION
OF OUR AREA...ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW...SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT BEFORE RE-INITIATING AROUND MID TO LATE MORNING. HENCE WE
BROUGHT IN A PROB30 TO ALL TERMINALS AFTER 22.1500Z. WIND LIGHT FROM
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 924 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014/

MESOSCALE UPDATE...A CLOSED LOW AT 500 MB IS ROTATING CONVECTIVE
CELLS AROUND A CENTER LOCATED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA IN THE
VICINITY OF MONROE COUNTY. HOWEVER...DESPITE THE LOSS OF SUNLIGHT THE
CONVECTION HAS NOT SHOWN SIGNS OF COMPLETE DISAPPEARANCE...BUT HAS
WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY. WE HAVE THEREFORE CUT BACK POPS GEOGRAPHICALLY
COMMENSURATE WITH WHAT IS BEING OBSERVED ON RADAR. /77

MARINE UPDATE...CONVECTION DRIFTING TOWARD THE GULF WILL LIKELY
INTENSIFY AND WE HAVE DECIDED TO PREPARE THE COASTAL WATERS UPDATE
FORECAST FOR THAT PROSPECT. /77

COASTAL REGIONS AND BEACH UPDATE...AND ADDENDA TO PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION OF 722 PM...REPORTS OF NUMEROUS RIP CURRENTS OBSERVED
ALONG GULF BEACHES HAS NECESSITATED AN EXTENSION OF OUR ASSESSMENT OF
A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK. THIS ASSESSMENT IS EXTENDED UNTIL 7 AM
TUESDAY. MODERATE RISK IS EXPECTED THEREAFTER. /77

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 722 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014/

UPDATE...UPDATED FOR EXTENSION OF THE HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
THROUGH TONIGHT. NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES. /29

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      71  89  71  91  73 /  20  30  20  30  20
PENSACOLA   74  88  75  89  76 /  30  30  20  30  20
DESTIN      76  87  77  86  77 /  40  30  20  30  20
EVERGREEN   69  90  69  92  71 /  30  40  20  30  20
WAYNESBORO  68  89  68  92  71 /  10  40  20  30  20
CAMDEN      69  89  70  92  71 /  20  40  20  30  20
CRESTVIEW   69  91  68  92  73 /  40  40  20  30  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA
     ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMOB 220224
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
924 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...A CLOSED LOW AT 500 MB IS ROTATING CONVECTIVE
CELLS AROUND A CENTER LOCATED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA IN THE
VICINITY OF MONROE COUNTY. HOWEVER...DESPITE THE LOSS OF SUNLIGHT THE
CONVECTION HAS NOT SHOWN SIGNS OF COMPLETE DISAPPEARANCE...BUT HAS
WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY. WE HAVE THEREFORE CUT BACK POPS GEOGRAPHICALLY
COMMENSURATE WITH WHAT IS BEING OBSERVED ON RADAR. /77

&&

.MARINE UPDATE...CONVECTION DRIFTING TOWARD THE GULF WILL LIKELY
INTENSIFY AND WE HAVE DECIDED TO PREPARE THE COASTAL WATERS UPDATE FORECAST
FOR THAT PROSPECT. /77

&&

.COASTAL REGIONS AND BEACH UPDATE...AND ADDENDA TO PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION OF 722 PM...REPORTS OF NUMEROUS RIP CURRENTS OBSERVED
ALONG GULF BEACHES HAS NECESSITATED AN EXTENSION OF OUR ASSESSMENT OF
A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK. THIS ASSESSMENT IS EXTENDED UNTIL 7 AM
TUESDAY. MODERATE RISK IS EXPECTED THEREAFTER. /77

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 722 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014/

UPDATE...UPDATED FOR EXTENSION OF THE HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
THROUGH TONIGHT. NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES. /29

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      71  89  71  91  73 /  20  30  20  30  20
PENSACOLA   74  88  75  89  76 /  30  30  20  30  20
DESTIN      76  87  77  86  77 /  30  30  20  30  20
EVERGREEN   69  90  69  92  71 /  30  40  20  30  20
WAYNESBORO  68  89  68  92  71 /  10  40  20  30  20
CAMDEN      69  89  70  92  71 /  20  40  20  30  20
CRESTVIEW   69  91  68  92  73 /  30  40  20  30  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA
     ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMOB 220224
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
924 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...A CLOSED LOW AT 500 MB IS ROTATING CONVECTIVE
CELLS AROUND A CENTER LOCATED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA IN THE
VICINITY OF MONROE COUNTY. HOWEVER...DESPITE THE LOSS OF SUNLIGHT THE
CONVECTION HAS NOT SHOWN SIGNS OF COMPLETE DISAPPEARANCE...BUT HAS
WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY. WE HAVE THEREFORE CUT BACK POPS GEOGRAPHICALLY
COMMENSURATE WITH WHAT IS BEING OBSERVED ON RADAR. /77

&&

.MARINE UPDATE...CONVECTION DRIFTING TOWARD THE GULF WILL LIKELY
INTENSIFY AND WE HAVE DECIDED TO PREPARE THE COASTAL WATERS UPDATE FORECAST
FOR THAT PROSPECT. /77

&&

.COASTAL REGIONS AND BEACH UPDATE...AND ADDENDA TO PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION OF 722 PM...REPORTS OF NUMEROUS RIP CURRENTS OBSERVED
ALONG GULF BEACHES HAS NECESSITATED AN EXTENSION OF OUR ASSESSMENT OF
A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK. THIS ASSESSMENT IS EXTENDED UNTIL 7 AM
TUESDAY. MODERATE RISK IS EXPECTED THEREAFTER. /77

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 722 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014/

UPDATE...UPDATED FOR EXTENSION OF THE HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
THROUGH TONIGHT. NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES. /29

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      71  89  71  91  73 /  20  30  20  30  20
PENSACOLA   74  88  75  89  76 /  30  30  20  30  20
DESTIN      76  87  77  86  77 /  30  30  20  30  20
EVERGREEN   69  90  69  92  71 /  30  40  20  30  20
WAYNESBORO  68  89  68  92  71 /  10  40  20  30  20
CAMDEN      69  89  70  92  71 /  20  40  20  30  20
CRESTVIEW   69  91  68  92  73 /  30  40  20  30  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA
     ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KMOB 220022 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
722 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

.UPDATE...UPDATED FOR EXTENSION OF THE HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
THROUGH TONIGHT. NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES. /29

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      71  89  71  91  73 /  20  30  20  30  20
PENSACOLA   74  88  75  89  76 /  30  30  20  30  20
DESTIN      76  87  77  86  77 /  30  30  20  30  20
EVERGREEN   69  90  69  92  71 /  30  40  20  30  20
WAYNESBORO  68  89  68  92  71 /  10  40  20  30  20
CAMDEN      69  89  70  92  71 /  20  40  20  30  20
CRESTVIEW   69  91  68  92  73 /  30  40  20  30  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA
     ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KMOB 220022 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
722 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

.UPDATE...UPDATED FOR EXTENSION OF THE HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
THROUGH TONIGHT. NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES. /29

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      71  89  71  91  73 /  20  30  20  30  20
PENSACOLA   74  88  75  89  76 /  30  30  20  30  20
DESTIN      76  87  77  86  77 /  30  30  20  30  20
EVERGREEN   69  90  69  92  71 /  30  40  20  30  20
WAYNESBORO  68  89  68  92  71 /  10  40  20  30  20
CAMDEN      69  89  70  92  71 /  20  40  20  30  20
CRESTVIEW   69  91  68  92  73 /  30  40  20  30  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA
     ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMOB 212334 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
634 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

.AVIATION UPDATE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL AFFECT SOME LOCATIONS MAINLY IN THE EASTERN
HALF OF OUR AREA...AND ISOLATED ELSEWHERE. WIND LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)...AN UPPER LOW
PRESSURE AREA OVER SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA WILL
DRIFT SOUTHWEST OVER THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
BECOMING CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA BY LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. A DRIER AIR MASS SHOWING UP ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
OCCUPIES THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW (PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES 1.3 TO 1.6 INCHES)...WHILE THE EASTERN PERIPHERY REMAINS VERY
MOIST (PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES 1.7 TO 2.0 INCHES). MEANWHILE...A
WEAK REFLECTION LOW AT THE SURFACE IS ALSO EXPECTED TO DRIFT
SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND EVENTUALLY EVOLVE INTO
SURFACE TROUGH FROM EAST TEXAS TO SOUTH ALABAMA BY LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC IS DETECTING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE TOMBIGBEE RIVER THIS
AFTERNOON...WHILE MUCH OF THE REMAINING FORECAST AREA IS STILL
RAIN-FREE. EXPECTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO
PERSIST OVERNIGHT EAST OF A LINE FROM CAMDEN ALABAMA TO PENSACOLA
FLORIDA AS THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS SOUTHWEST...WITH ISOLATED COVERAGE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WEST OF THIS LINE.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 68 TO 73 DEGREES MOST LOCATIONS...WITH
MID/UPPER 70S ALONG THE BEACHES. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL
REACH NEAR 90 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...WITH MID 80S ALONG THE COAST.
/22

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE
LOCATED JUST WEST OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AS IT SLOWLY DRIFTS WEST.
THIS WILL PLACE THE CENTRAL GULF COAST ON THE FAVORABLE EASTERN SIDE
OF THE LOW FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN THE
ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE POPS. THE UPPER LOW WILL OPEN UP WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY AS IT MERGES WITH A DIGGING TROUGH MOVING SOUTH ACROSS
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...MAINTAINING SCATTERED POPS. THIS WILL SEND A
COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE AREA ON FRIDAY. THE FRONT WILL
LIKELY STALL OUT JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA FRIDAY EVENING. THIS WILL
CREATE AN INCREASE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY.
SCATTERED COVERAGES CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE FRONT LINGERS
TO OUR NORTH AND DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
HIGHS WILL REMAIN NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD. /13

AVIATION [21.18Z KMOB/KBFM/KPNS TAF ISSUANCE]...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL AT BOTH KMOB AND KBFM THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH ONLY A
FEW PASSING SHOWERS EXPECTED THROUGH 21Z AND AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING.
NO TEMPO GROUP REQUIRED. VFR CONDITIONS WILL MAINLY PREVAIL AT
KPNS...THOUGH LOCALIZED MVFR CIGS AND IFR OR LOWER VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR CONVECTION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPO
GROUP ADDED FROM 18Z TO 20Z. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY RETURN TO
THE SOUTHWEST BECOMING VARIABLE 5 KNOTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. /22

MARINE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN PLACE ACROSS THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN
A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE MARINE AREA. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEK. /22

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      71  89  71  91  73 /  20  30  20  30  20
PENSACOLA   74  88  75  89  76 /  30  30  20  30  20
DESTIN      76  87  77  86  77 /  30  30  20  30  20
EVERGREEN   69  90  69  92  71 /  30  40  20  30  20
WAYNESBORO  68  89  68  92  71 /  10  40  20  30  20
CAMDEN      69  89  70  92  71 /  20  40  20  30  20
CRESTVIEW   69  91  68  92  73 /  30  40  20  30  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMOB 212334 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
634 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

.AVIATION UPDATE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL AFFECT SOME LOCATIONS MAINLY IN THE EASTERN
HALF OF OUR AREA...AND ISOLATED ELSEWHERE. WIND LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)...AN UPPER LOW
PRESSURE AREA OVER SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA WILL
DRIFT SOUTHWEST OVER THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
BECOMING CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA BY LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. A DRIER AIR MASS SHOWING UP ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
OCCUPIES THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW (PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES 1.3 TO 1.6 INCHES)...WHILE THE EASTERN PERIPHERY REMAINS VERY
MOIST (PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES 1.7 TO 2.0 INCHES). MEANWHILE...A
WEAK REFLECTION LOW AT THE SURFACE IS ALSO EXPECTED TO DRIFT
SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND EVENTUALLY EVOLVE INTO
SURFACE TROUGH FROM EAST TEXAS TO SOUTH ALABAMA BY LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC IS DETECTING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE TOMBIGBEE RIVER THIS
AFTERNOON...WHILE MUCH OF THE REMAINING FORECAST AREA IS STILL
RAIN-FREE. EXPECTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO
PERSIST OVERNIGHT EAST OF A LINE FROM CAMDEN ALABAMA TO PENSACOLA
FLORIDA AS THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS SOUTHWEST...WITH ISOLATED COVERAGE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WEST OF THIS LINE.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 68 TO 73 DEGREES MOST LOCATIONS...WITH
MID/UPPER 70S ALONG THE BEACHES. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL
REACH NEAR 90 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...WITH MID 80S ALONG THE COAST.
/22

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE
LOCATED JUST WEST OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AS IT SLOWLY DRIFTS WEST.
THIS WILL PLACE THE CENTRAL GULF COAST ON THE FAVORABLE EASTERN SIDE
OF THE LOW FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN THE
ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE POPS. THE UPPER LOW WILL OPEN UP WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY AS IT MERGES WITH A DIGGING TROUGH MOVING SOUTH ACROSS
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...MAINTAINING SCATTERED POPS. THIS WILL SEND A
COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE AREA ON FRIDAY. THE FRONT WILL
LIKELY STALL OUT JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA FRIDAY EVENING. THIS WILL
CREATE AN INCREASE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY.
SCATTERED COVERAGES CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE FRONT LINGERS
TO OUR NORTH AND DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
HIGHS WILL REMAIN NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD. /13

AVIATION [21.18Z KMOB/KBFM/KPNS TAF ISSUANCE]...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL AT BOTH KMOB AND KBFM THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH ONLY A
FEW PASSING SHOWERS EXPECTED THROUGH 21Z AND AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING.
NO TEMPO GROUP REQUIRED. VFR CONDITIONS WILL MAINLY PREVAIL AT
KPNS...THOUGH LOCALIZED MVFR CIGS AND IFR OR LOWER VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR CONVECTION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPO
GROUP ADDED FROM 18Z TO 20Z. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY RETURN TO
THE SOUTHWEST BECOMING VARIABLE 5 KNOTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. /22

MARINE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN PLACE ACROSS THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN
A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE MARINE AREA. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEK. /22

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      71  89  71  91  73 /  20  30  20  30  20
PENSACOLA   74  88  75  89  76 /  30  30  20  30  20
DESTIN      76  87  77  86  77 /  30  30  20  30  20
EVERGREEN   69  90  69  92  71 /  30  40  20  30  20
WAYNESBORO  68  89  68  92  71 /  10  40  20  30  20
CAMDEN      69  89  70  92  71 /  20  40  20  30  20
CRESTVIEW   69  91  68  92  73 /  30  40  20  30  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KMOB 212032
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
330 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)...AN UPPER LOW
PRESSURE AREA OVER SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA WILL
DRIFT SOUTHWEST OVER THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
BECOMING CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA BY LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. A DRIER AIR MASS SHOWING UP ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
OCCUPIES THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW (PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES 1.3 TO 1.6 INCHES)...WHILE THE EASTERN PERIPHERY REMAINS VERY
MOIST (PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES 1.7 TO 2.0 INCHES). MEANWHILE...A
WEAK REFLECTION LOW AT THE SURFACE IS ALSO EXPECTED TO DRIFT
SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND EVENTUALLY EVOLVE INTO
SURFACE TROUGH FROM EAST TEXAS TO SOUTH ALABAMA BY LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC IS DETECTING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE TOMBIGBEE RIVER THIS
AFTERNOON...WHILE MUCH OF THE REMAINING FORECAST AREA IS STILL
RAIN-FREE. EXPECTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO
PERSIST OVERNIGHT EAST OF A LINE FROM CAMDEN ALABAMA TO PENSACOLA
FLORIDA AS THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS SOUTHWEST...WITH ISOLATED COVERAGE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WEST OF THIS LINE.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 68 TO 73 DEGREES MOST LOCATIONS...WITH
MID/UPPER 70S ALONG THE BEACHES. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL
REACH NEAR 90 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...WITH MID 80S ALONG THE COAST.
/22

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE
LOCATED JUST WEST OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AS IT SLOWLY DRIFTS WEST.
THIS WILL PLACE THE CENTRAL GULF COAST ON THE FAVORABLE EASTERN SIDE
OF THE LOW FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN THE
ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE POPS. THE UPPER LOW WILL OPEN UP WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY AS IT MERGES WITH A DIGGING TROUGH MOVING SOUTH ACROSS
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...MAINTAINING SCATTERED POPS. THIS WILL SEND A
COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE AREA ON FRIDAY. THE FRONT WILL
LIKELY STALL OUT JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA FRIDAY EVENING. THIS WILL
CREATE AN INCREASE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY.
SCATTERED COVERAGES CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE FRONT LINGERS
TO OUR NORTH AND DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
HIGHS WILL REMAIN NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD. /13

&&

.AVIATION [21.18Z KMOB/KBFM/KPNS TAF ISSUANCE]...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL AT BOTH KMOB AND KBFM THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH ONLY A
FEW PASSING SHOWERS EXPECTED THROUGH 21Z AND AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING.
NO TEMPO GROUP REQUIRED. VFR CONDITIONS WILL MAINLY PREVAIL AT
KPNS...THOUGH LOCALIZED MVFR CIGS AND IFR OR LOWER VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR CONVECTION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPO
GROUP ADDED FROM 18Z TO 20Z. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY RETURN TO
THE SOUTHWEST BECOMING VARIABLE 5 KNOTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. /22

&&

.MARINE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN PLACE ACROSS THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN
A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE MARINE AREA. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEK. /22

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      71  89  71  91  73 /  20  30  20  30  20
PENSACOLA   74  88  75  89  76 /  30  30  20  30  20
DESTIN      76  87  77  86  77 /  30  30  20  30  20
EVERGREEN   69  90  69  92  71 /  30  40  20  30  20
WAYNESBORO  68  89  68  92  71 /  10  40  20  30  20
CAMDEN      69  89  70  92  71 /  20  40  20  30  20
CRESTVIEW   69  91  68  92  73 /  30  40  20  30  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$












000
FXUS64 KMOB 211752 AAC
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1252 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

.AVIATION [21.18Z KMOB/KBFM/KPNS TAF ISSUANCE]...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL AT BOTH KMOB AND KBFM THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH ONLY A
FEW PASSING SHOWERS EXPECTED THROUGH 21Z AND AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING.
NO TEMPO GROUP REQUIRED. VFR CONDITIONS WILL MAINLY PREVAIL AT KPNS...
THOUGH LOCALIZED MVFR CIGS AND IFR OR LOWER VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS
ARE POSSIBLE NEAR CONVECTION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPO GROUP ADDED
FROM 18Z TO 20Z. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY RETURN TO THE SOUTHWEST
BECOMING VARIABLE 5 KNOTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. /22

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1011 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014/

SHORT TERM UPDATE...UPPER LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA
WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST OVER SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA BY
LATE AFTERNOON. A DRIER AIR MASS SHOWING UP ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER
OVER SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST ALABAMA THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC IS DETECTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
REGENERATING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...WHILE MUCH OF THE
REMAINING FORECAST AREA IS STILL RAIN-FREE. STILL EXPECTING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE TOMBIGBEE RIVER THIS AFTERNOON
WITH ISOLATED COVERAGE TO THE WEST. COVERAGE WILL LIKELY PEAK BEFORE
MID AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL DECREASE IN COVERAGE FROM WEST
TO EAST BY LATE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
BOTH THE GRIDS AND ZONE FORECAST PACKAGE UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT. /22

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 648 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014/

AVIATION UPDATE...WE ARE STARTING OFF WITH A LITTLE LOWER THAN
EXPECTED CIGS AT IFR TO LIFR LEVELS AROUND THE COAST...INCLUDING NEAR
KMOB AND KPNS THIS MORNING. VISIBILITY HAS ALSO COME DOWN TO AROUND
2SM AT KMOB. WE WILL REFLECT THESE CONDITIONS IN THE LOCAL TAF/S
THROUGH AROUND 13-14Z.

OTHERWISE...VFR TO MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING. MOST OF THE SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY HAS MOVED TO THE EAST OF THE
LOCAL TERMINALS THIS MORNING...BUT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR RE-
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION LATER THIS MORNING
AND THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS TO IFR
TO LIFR LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE HEAVIER SHRA/TSRA THAT
DEVELOP. LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME MOSTLY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. /21

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 510 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...FOR TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...
THE OVERALL UPPER AIR PATTERN CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE CONUS
EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH A RIDGE ALOFT STRENGTHENING OVER THE
SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND HIGH PLAINS WHILE A TROUGH CONTINUES TO
DEEPEN FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION.
EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS MEANWHILE CONTINUES TO SHOW A WEAK
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED FROM THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS COAST
THROUGH SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA. A MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS
ENTRENCHED ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AVERAGING BETWEEN 1.75 AND 2.0 INCHES
ACROSS COASTAL PORTIONS OF OUR CWFA. THE AIRMASS IS A LITTLE DRIER
OVER INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...BUT PWATS
STILL RANGE FROM 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES OVER THESE AREAS PER THE LATEST
GOES BLENDED TPW PRODUCT. CONVECTION HAS FIRED IN THE MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...AND EVEN OVER COASTAL
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE
EARLY THIS MORNING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS HAVE IMPACTED PORTIONS OF
OKALOOSA COUNTY... WHERE RADAR ESTIMATES 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN HAS
FALLEN AROUND THE DESTIN AND NICEVILLE COMMUNITIES. OTHER ISOLATED
SHOWERS HAVE OCCASIONALLY DEVELOPED OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION
IN THE MOIST AIRMASS EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE VICINITY OF THE
DEEPENING MID LEVEL TROUGH.

SHORT RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A MID LEVEL
LOW WILL FORM IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTHERN ALABAMA TODAY AND WILL
REMAIN IN THIS GENERAL LOCATION THROUGH TONIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO TREND LOWER TODAY...BUT SHOULD STILL RANGE
BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.75 INCHES ACROSS MOST OF OUR REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS OUR CWFA
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE GENERALLY ALONG AND TO THE
EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE DEEPENING UPPER
LOW. POPS WERE TRENDED FROM 20-30 PERCENT OVER WESTERN AREAS TO
40-50 PERCENT OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA. CONVECTION SHOULD
BECOME ISOLATED INLAND TONIGHT...WITH SCATTERED COVERAGE NEAR THE
COAST AND OFFSHORE WATERS. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID TO
UPPER 80S NEAR THE COAST TO AROUND 90 TO THE LOWER 90S INLAND. LOWS
TONIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND 70 INLAND TO THE MID 70S NEAR THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. /21

THE WET MICROBURST RISK TODAY IS MODERATE.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LOW EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS MEANDERS SLOWLY WESTWARD...FROM OVER THE FA
TO OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY. THIS IS DUE TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE FL ATLANTIC COAST BUILDS AND SHIFTS WESTWARD A BIT. THIS
LOW`S ASSOCIATED SURFACE CIRCULATION SHIFTS WESTWARD...FROM OVER THE
SOUTHERN MS/AL STATE LINE TO OVER THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS LOOSEN ITS DEFINITION AS IT GOES. A SURFACE RIDGE
BUILDS WEST OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEX...HELPING TO RESTORE A MORE
ORGANIZED ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY AND
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. WITH THE RESTORATION OF A MORE ORGANIZED ONSHORE
LOW LEVEL FLOW AND THE UPPER LOW NEAR THE AREA...POPS ARE OR ABOVE
SEASONAL EXPECTED..WITH TEMPS AT OR A BIT BELOW SEASONAL.

LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT ON)...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A
COMBINATION OF UPPER ENERGY PASSING EAST OVER THE US/CA BORDER DRAWING
THE NORTHERN END OF THE EASTERN TROUGH MORE EASTWARD AND THE UPPER
HIGH OFF THE FL COAST BUILDING WESTWARD AS IT GET FLATTENED BY THE
ENERGY SHIFTING THE NORTHERN END OF THE TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD OPENS
THE LOWER MISS RIVER UPPER LOW AND TILTS THE ENTIRE SECTION OVER THE
LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS TO A WSW TO ENE
POSITION BY FRIDAY EVENING. THE FA REMAINS GENERALLY UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...WITH TEMPS AND POPS AROUND SEASONAL.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MORE UPPER ENERGY MOVING INTO THE
EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS IT EASTWARD...TO NEAR THE EAST
COAST. MORE UPPER ENERGY MOVING INTO THE EASTERN TROUGH PUSHES A
SURFACE FRONT SOUTH OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN
CONUS...PUSHING THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF
SOUTHWARD...TO OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEX BY SUNDAY EVENING. THIS
SHIFTS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY AND
WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST TO A GENERAL WESTERLY. WHEN
COMBINED WITH A SURFACE BOUNDARY TO THE EAST OF THE FA...POPS AT OR
ABOVE SEASONAL IS LIKELY...AND WITH AN UPPER HIGH THAT HAS BEEN
MEANDERING AROUND OVER THE WESTERN CONUS ALLOWED TO BUILD EAST OVER
THE EASTERN SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY...TEMPS AT OR
ABOVE SEASONAL COME WITH.

MARINE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE WEEK...WHICH WILL SUPPORT A
CONTINUED LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THIS
MORNING...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BECOME MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN
NATURE THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH CONVECTION MORE
FAVORED AT NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING. SEAS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS
ELEVATED BETWEEN 2-3 FEET THIS MORNING SHOULD MOSTLY RANGE BETWEEN
1-2 FEET THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. /21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      89  72  89  71  89 /  30  20  30  10  30
PENSACOLA   88  76  90  74  90 /  40  30  30  10  30
DESTIN      87  77  88  75  89 /  50  30  30  10  30
EVERGREEN   90  70  90  67  92 /  40  20  40  10  30
WAYNESBORO  91  69  90  68  91 /  20  10  40  10  50
CAMDEN      92  69  90  68  93 /  30  20  40  10  30
CRESTVIEW   90  70  91  68  92 /  40  30  40  10  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMOB 211752 AAC
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1252 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

.AVIATION [21.18Z KMOB/KBFM/KPNS TAF ISSUANCE]...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL AT BOTH KMOB AND KBFM THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH ONLY A
FEW PASSING SHOWERS EXPECTED THROUGH 21Z AND AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING.
NO TEMPO GROUP REQUIRED. VFR CONDITIONS WILL MAINLY PREVAIL AT KPNS...
THOUGH LOCALIZED MVFR CIGS AND IFR OR LOWER VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS
ARE POSSIBLE NEAR CONVECTION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPO GROUP ADDED
FROM 18Z TO 20Z. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY RETURN TO THE SOUTHWEST
BECOMING VARIABLE 5 KNOTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. /22

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1011 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014/

SHORT TERM UPDATE...UPPER LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA
WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST OVER SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA BY
LATE AFTERNOON. A DRIER AIR MASS SHOWING UP ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER
OVER SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST ALABAMA THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC IS DETECTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
REGENERATING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...WHILE MUCH OF THE
REMAINING FORECAST AREA IS STILL RAIN-FREE. STILL EXPECTING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE TOMBIGBEE RIVER THIS AFTERNOON
WITH ISOLATED COVERAGE TO THE WEST. COVERAGE WILL LIKELY PEAK BEFORE
MID AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL DECREASE IN COVERAGE FROM WEST
TO EAST BY LATE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
BOTH THE GRIDS AND ZONE FORECAST PACKAGE UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT. /22

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 648 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014/

AVIATION UPDATE...WE ARE STARTING OFF WITH A LITTLE LOWER THAN
EXPECTED CIGS AT IFR TO LIFR LEVELS AROUND THE COAST...INCLUDING NEAR
KMOB AND KPNS THIS MORNING. VISIBILITY HAS ALSO COME DOWN TO AROUND
2SM AT KMOB. WE WILL REFLECT THESE CONDITIONS IN THE LOCAL TAF/S
THROUGH AROUND 13-14Z.

OTHERWISE...VFR TO MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING. MOST OF THE SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY HAS MOVED TO THE EAST OF THE
LOCAL TERMINALS THIS MORNING...BUT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR RE-
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION LATER THIS MORNING
AND THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS TO IFR
TO LIFR LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE HEAVIER SHRA/TSRA THAT
DEVELOP. LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME MOSTLY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. /21

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 510 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...FOR TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...
THE OVERALL UPPER AIR PATTERN CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE CONUS
EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH A RIDGE ALOFT STRENGTHENING OVER THE
SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND HIGH PLAINS WHILE A TROUGH CONTINUES TO
DEEPEN FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION.
EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS MEANWHILE CONTINUES TO SHOW A WEAK
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED FROM THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS COAST
THROUGH SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA. A MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS
ENTRENCHED ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AVERAGING BETWEEN 1.75 AND 2.0 INCHES
ACROSS COASTAL PORTIONS OF OUR CWFA. THE AIRMASS IS A LITTLE DRIER
OVER INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...BUT PWATS
STILL RANGE FROM 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES OVER THESE AREAS PER THE LATEST
GOES BLENDED TPW PRODUCT. CONVECTION HAS FIRED IN THE MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...AND EVEN OVER COASTAL
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE
EARLY THIS MORNING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS HAVE IMPACTED PORTIONS OF
OKALOOSA COUNTY... WHERE RADAR ESTIMATES 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN HAS
FALLEN AROUND THE DESTIN AND NICEVILLE COMMUNITIES. OTHER ISOLATED
SHOWERS HAVE OCCASIONALLY DEVELOPED OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION
IN THE MOIST AIRMASS EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE VICINITY OF THE
DEEPENING MID LEVEL TROUGH.

SHORT RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A MID LEVEL
LOW WILL FORM IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTHERN ALABAMA TODAY AND WILL
REMAIN IN THIS GENERAL LOCATION THROUGH TONIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO TREND LOWER TODAY...BUT SHOULD STILL RANGE
BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.75 INCHES ACROSS MOST OF OUR REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS OUR CWFA
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE GENERALLY ALONG AND TO THE
EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE DEEPENING UPPER
LOW. POPS WERE TRENDED FROM 20-30 PERCENT OVER WESTERN AREAS TO
40-50 PERCENT OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA. CONVECTION SHOULD
BECOME ISOLATED INLAND TONIGHT...WITH SCATTERED COVERAGE NEAR THE
COAST AND OFFSHORE WATERS. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID TO
UPPER 80S NEAR THE COAST TO AROUND 90 TO THE LOWER 90S INLAND. LOWS
TONIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND 70 INLAND TO THE MID 70S NEAR THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. /21

THE WET MICROBURST RISK TODAY IS MODERATE.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LOW EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS MEANDERS SLOWLY WESTWARD...FROM OVER THE FA
TO OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY. THIS IS DUE TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE FL ATLANTIC COAST BUILDS AND SHIFTS WESTWARD A BIT. THIS
LOW`S ASSOCIATED SURFACE CIRCULATION SHIFTS WESTWARD...FROM OVER THE
SOUTHERN MS/AL STATE LINE TO OVER THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS LOOSEN ITS DEFINITION AS IT GOES. A SURFACE RIDGE
BUILDS WEST OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEX...HELPING TO RESTORE A MORE
ORGANIZED ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY AND
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. WITH THE RESTORATION OF A MORE ORGANIZED ONSHORE
LOW LEVEL FLOW AND THE UPPER LOW NEAR THE AREA...POPS ARE OR ABOVE
SEASONAL EXPECTED..WITH TEMPS AT OR A BIT BELOW SEASONAL.

LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT ON)...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A
COMBINATION OF UPPER ENERGY PASSING EAST OVER THE US/CA BORDER DRAWING
THE NORTHERN END OF THE EASTERN TROUGH MORE EASTWARD AND THE UPPER
HIGH OFF THE FL COAST BUILDING WESTWARD AS IT GET FLATTENED BY THE
ENERGY SHIFTING THE NORTHERN END OF THE TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD OPENS
THE LOWER MISS RIVER UPPER LOW AND TILTS THE ENTIRE SECTION OVER THE
LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS TO A WSW TO ENE
POSITION BY FRIDAY EVENING. THE FA REMAINS GENERALLY UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...WITH TEMPS AND POPS AROUND SEASONAL.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MORE UPPER ENERGY MOVING INTO THE
EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS IT EASTWARD...TO NEAR THE EAST
COAST. MORE UPPER ENERGY MOVING INTO THE EASTERN TROUGH PUSHES A
SURFACE FRONT SOUTH OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN
CONUS...PUSHING THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF
SOUTHWARD...TO OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEX BY SUNDAY EVENING. THIS
SHIFTS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY AND
WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST TO A GENERAL WESTERLY. WHEN
COMBINED WITH A SURFACE BOUNDARY TO THE EAST OF THE FA...POPS AT OR
ABOVE SEASONAL IS LIKELY...AND WITH AN UPPER HIGH THAT HAS BEEN
MEANDERING AROUND OVER THE WESTERN CONUS ALLOWED TO BUILD EAST OVER
THE EASTERN SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY...TEMPS AT OR
ABOVE SEASONAL COME WITH.

MARINE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE WEEK...WHICH WILL SUPPORT A
CONTINUED LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THIS
MORNING...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BECOME MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN
NATURE THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH CONVECTION MORE
FAVORED AT NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING. SEAS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS
ELEVATED BETWEEN 2-3 FEET THIS MORNING SHOULD MOSTLY RANGE BETWEEN
1-2 FEET THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. /21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      89  72  89  71  89 /  30  20  30  10  30
PENSACOLA   88  76  90  74  90 /  40  30  30  10  30
DESTIN      87  77  88  75  89 /  50  30  30  10  30
EVERGREEN   90  70  90  67  92 /  40  20  40  10  30
WAYNESBORO  91  69  90  68  91 /  20  10  40  10  50
CAMDEN      92  69  90  68  93 /  30  20  40  10  30
CRESTVIEW   90  70  91  68  92 /  40  30  40  10  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMOB 211511 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1011 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SHORT TERM UPDATE...UPPER LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA
WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST OVER SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA BY
LATE AFTERNOON. A DRIER AIR MASS SHOWING UP ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIHERY OF THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER
OVER SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPI AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST ALABAMA THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC IS DETECTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
REGENERATING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...WHILE MUCH OF THE
REMAINING FORECAST AREA IS STILL RAIN-FREE. STILL EXPECTING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE TOMBIGBEE RIVER THIS AFTERNOON
WITH ISOLATED COVEAGE TO THE WEST. COVERAGE WILL LIKELY PEAK BEFORE
MID AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL DECREASE IN COVERAGE FROM WEST
TO EAST BY LATE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
BOTH THE GRIDS AND ZONE FORECAST PACKAGE UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT. /22

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 648 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014/

AVIATION UPDATE...WE ARE STARTING OFF WITH A LITTLE LOWER THAN
EXPECTED CIGS AT IFR TO LIFR LEVELS AROUND THE COAST...INCLUDING NEAR
KMOB AND KPNS THIS MORNING. VISIBILITY HAS ALSO COME DOWN TO AROUND
2SM AT KMOB. WE WILL REFLECT THESE CONDITIONS IN THE LOCAL TAF/S
THROUGH AROUND 13-14Z.

OTHERWISE...VFR TO MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING. MOST OF THE SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY HAS MOVED TO THE EAST OF THE
LOCAL TERMINALS THIS MORNING...BUT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR RE-
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION LATER THIS MORNING
AND THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS TO IFR
TO LIFR LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE HEAVIER SHRA/TSRA THAT
DEVELOP. LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME MOSTLY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. /21

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 510 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...FOR TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...
THE OVERALL UPPER AIR PATTERN CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE CONUS
EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH A RIDGE ALOFT STRENGTHENING OVER THE
SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND HIGH PLAINS WHILE A TROUGH CONTINUES TO
DEEPEN FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION.
EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS MEANWHILE CONTINUES TO SHOW A WEAK
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED FROM THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS COAST
THROUGH SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA. A MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS
ENTRENCHED ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AVERAGING BETWEEN 1.75 AND 2.0 INCHES
ACROSS COASTAL PORTIONS OF OUR CWFA. THE AIRMASS IS A LITTLE DRIER
OVER INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...BUT PWATS
STILL RANGE FROM 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES OVER THESE AREAS PER THE LATEST
GOES BLENDED TPW PRODUCT. CONVECTION HAS FIRED IN THE MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...AND EVEN OVER COASTAL
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE
EARLY THIS MORNING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS HAVE IMPACTED PORTIONS OF
OKALOOSA COUNTY... WHERE RADAR ESTIMATES 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN HAS
FALLEN AROUND THE DESTIN AND NICEVILLE COMMUNITIES. OTHER ISOLATED
SHOWERS HAVE OCCASIONALLY DEVELOPED OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION
IN THE MOIST AIRMASS EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE VICINITY OF THE
DEEPENING MID LEVEL TROUGH.

SHORT RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A MID LEVEL
LOW WILL FORM IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTHERN ALABAMA TODAY AND WILL
REMAIN IN THIS GENERAL LOCATION THROUGH TONIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO TREND LOWER TODAY...BUT SHOULD STILL RANGE
BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.75 INCHES ACROSS MOST OF OUR REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS OUR CWFA
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE GENERALLY ALONG AND TO THE
EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE DEEPENING UPPER
LOW. POPS WERE TRENDED FROM 20-30 PERCENT OVER WESTERN AREAS TO
40-50 PERCENT OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA. CONVECTION SHOULD
BECOME ISOLATED INLAND TONIGHT...WITH SCATTERED COVERAGE NEAR THE
COAST AND OFFSHORE WATERS. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID TO
UPPER 80S NEAR THE COAST TO AROUND 90 TO THE LOWER 90S INLAND. LOWS
TONIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND 70 INLAND TO THE MID 70S NEAR THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. /21

THE WET MICROBURST RISK TODAY IS MODERATE.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LOW EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS MEANDERS SLOWLY WESTWARD...FROM OVER THE FA
TO OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY. THIS IS DUE TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE FL ATLANTIC COAST BUILDS AND SHIFTS WESTWARD A BIT. THIS
LOW`S ASSOCIATED SURFACE CIRCULATION SHIFTS WESTWARD...FROM OVER THE
SOUTHERN MS/AL STATE LINE TO OVER THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS LOOSEN ITS DEFINITION AS IT GOES. A SURFACE RIDGE
BUILDS WEST OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEX...HELPING TO RESTORE A MORE
ORGANIZED ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY AND
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. WITH THE RESTORATION OF A MORE ORGANIZED ONSHORE
LOW LEVEL FLOW AND THE UPPER LOW NEAR THE AREA...POPS ARE OR ABOVE
SEASONAL EXPECTED..WITH TEMPS AT OR A BIT BELOW SEASONAL.

LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT ON)...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A
COMBINATION OF UPPER ENERGY PASSING EAST OVER THE US/CA BORDER DRAWING
THE NORTHERN END OF THE EASTERN TROUGH MORE EASTWARD AND THE UPPER
HIGH OFF THE FL COAST BUILDING WESTWARD AS IT GET FLATTENED BY THE
ENERGY SHIFTING THE NORTHERN END OF THE TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD OPENS
THE LOWER MISS RIVER UPPER LOW AND TILTS THE ENTIRE SECTION OVER THE
LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS TO A WSW TO ENE
POSITION BY FRIDAY EVENING. THE FA REMAINS GENERALLY UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...WITH TEMPS AND POPS AROUND SEASONAL.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MORE UPPER ENERGY MOVING INTO THE
EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS IT EASTWARD...TO NEAR THE EAST
COAST. MORE UPPER ENERGY MOVING INTO THE EASTERN TROUGH PUSHES A
SURFACE FRONT SOUTH OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN
CONUS...PUSHING THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF
SOUTHWARD...TO OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEX BY SUNDAY EVENING. THIS
SHIFTS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY AND
WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST TO A GENERAL WESTERLY. WHEN
COMBINED WITH A SURFACE BOUNDARY TO THE EAST OF THE FA...POPS AT OR
ABOVE SEASONAL IS LIKELY...AND WITH AN UPPER HIGH THAT HAS BEEN
MEANDERING AROUND OVER THE WESTERN CONUS ALLOWED TO BUILD EAST OVER
THE EASTERN SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY...TEMPS AT OR
ABOVE SEASONAL COME WITH.

MARINE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE WEEK...WHICH WILL SUPPORT A
CONTINUED LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THIS
MORNING...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BECOME MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN
NATURE THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH CONVECTION MORE
FAVORED AT NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING. SEAS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS
ELEVATED BETWEEN 2-3 FEET THIS MORNING SHOULD MOSTLY RANGE BETWEEN
1-2 FEET THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. /21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      89  72  89  71  89 /  30  20  30  10  30
PENSACOLA   88  76  90  74  90 /  40  30  30  10  30
DESTIN      87  77  88  75  89 /  50  30  30  10  30
EVERGREEN   90  70  90  67  92 /  40  20  40  10  30
WAYNESBORO  91  69  90  68  91 /  20  10  40  10  50
CAMDEN      92  69  90  68  93 /  30  20  40  10  30
CRESTVIEW   90  70  91  68  92 /  40  30  40  10  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMOB 211511 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1011 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SHORT TERM UPDATE...UPPER LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA
WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST OVER SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA BY
LATE AFTERNOON. A DRIER AIR MASS SHOWING UP ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIHERY OF THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER
OVER SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPI AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST ALABAMA THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC IS DETECTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
REGENERATING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...WHILE MUCH OF THE
REMAINING FORECAST AREA IS STILL RAIN-FREE. STILL EXPECTING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE TOMBIGBEE RIVER THIS AFTERNOON
WITH ISOLATED COVEAGE TO THE WEST. COVERAGE WILL LIKELY PEAK BEFORE
MID AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL DECREASE IN COVERAGE FROM WEST
TO EAST BY LATE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
BOTH THE GRIDS AND ZONE FORECAST PACKAGE UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT. /22

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 648 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014/

AVIATION UPDATE...WE ARE STARTING OFF WITH A LITTLE LOWER THAN
EXPECTED CIGS AT IFR TO LIFR LEVELS AROUND THE COAST...INCLUDING NEAR
KMOB AND KPNS THIS MORNING. VISIBILITY HAS ALSO COME DOWN TO AROUND
2SM AT KMOB. WE WILL REFLECT THESE CONDITIONS IN THE LOCAL TAF/S
THROUGH AROUND 13-14Z.

OTHERWISE...VFR TO MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING. MOST OF THE SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY HAS MOVED TO THE EAST OF THE
LOCAL TERMINALS THIS MORNING...BUT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR RE-
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION LATER THIS MORNING
AND THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS TO IFR
TO LIFR LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE HEAVIER SHRA/TSRA THAT
DEVELOP. LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME MOSTLY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. /21

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 510 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...FOR TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...
THE OVERALL UPPER AIR PATTERN CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE CONUS
EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH A RIDGE ALOFT STRENGTHENING OVER THE
SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND HIGH PLAINS WHILE A TROUGH CONTINUES TO
DEEPEN FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION.
EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS MEANWHILE CONTINUES TO SHOW A WEAK
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED FROM THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS COAST
THROUGH SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA. A MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS
ENTRENCHED ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AVERAGING BETWEEN 1.75 AND 2.0 INCHES
ACROSS COASTAL PORTIONS OF OUR CWFA. THE AIRMASS IS A LITTLE DRIER
OVER INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...BUT PWATS
STILL RANGE FROM 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES OVER THESE AREAS PER THE LATEST
GOES BLENDED TPW PRODUCT. CONVECTION HAS FIRED IN THE MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...AND EVEN OVER COASTAL
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE
EARLY THIS MORNING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS HAVE IMPACTED PORTIONS OF
OKALOOSA COUNTY... WHERE RADAR ESTIMATES 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN HAS
FALLEN AROUND THE DESTIN AND NICEVILLE COMMUNITIES. OTHER ISOLATED
SHOWERS HAVE OCCASIONALLY DEVELOPED OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION
IN THE MOIST AIRMASS EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE VICINITY OF THE
DEEPENING MID LEVEL TROUGH.

SHORT RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A MID LEVEL
LOW WILL FORM IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTHERN ALABAMA TODAY AND WILL
REMAIN IN THIS GENERAL LOCATION THROUGH TONIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO TREND LOWER TODAY...BUT SHOULD STILL RANGE
BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.75 INCHES ACROSS MOST OF OUR REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS OUR CWFA
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE GENERALLY ALONG AND TO THE
EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE DEEPENING UPPER
LOW. POPS WERE TRENDED FROM 20-30 PERCENT OVER WESTERN AREAS TO
40-50 PERCENT OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA. CONVECTION SHOULD
BECOME ISOLATED INLAND TONIGHT...WITH SCATTERED COVERAGE NEAR THE
COAST AND OFFSHORE WATERS. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID TO
UPPER 80S NEAR THE COAST TO AROUND 90 TO THE LOWER 90S INLAND. LOWS
TONIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND 70 INLAND TO THE MID 70S NEAR THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. /21

THE WET MICROBURST RISK TODAY IS MODERATE.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LOW EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS MEANDERS SLOWLY WESTWARD...FROM OVER THE FA
TO OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY. THIS IS DUE TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE FL ATLANTIC COAST BUILDS AND SHIFTS WESTWARD A BIT. THIS
LOW`S ASSOCIATED SURFACE CIRCULATION SHIFTS WESTWARD...FROM OVER THE
SOUTHERN MS/AL STATE LINE TO OVER THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS LOOSEN ITS DEFINITION AS IT GOES. A SURFACE RIDGE
BUILDS WEST OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEX...HELPING TO RESTORE A MORE
ORGANIZED ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY AND
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. WITH THE RESTORATION OF A MORE ORGANIZED ONSHORE
LOW LEVEL FLOW AND THE UPPER LOW NEAR THE AREA...POPS ARE OR ABOVE
SEASONAL EXPECTED..WITH TEMPS AT OR A BIT BELOW SEASONAL.

LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT ON)...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A
COMBINATION OF UPPER ENERGY PASSING EAST OVER THE US/CA BORDER DRAWING
THE NORTHERN END OF THE EASTERN TROUGH MORE EASTWARD AND THE UPPER
HIGH OFF THE FL COAST BUILDING WESTWARD AS IT GET FLATTENED BY THE
ENERGY SHIFTING THE NORTHERN END OF THE TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD OPENS
THE LOWER MISS RIVER UPPER LOW AND TILTS THE ENTIRE SECTION OVER THE
LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS TO A WSW TO ENE
POSITION BY FRIDAY EVENING. THE FA REMAINS GENERALLY UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...WITH TEMPS AND POPS AROUND SEASONAL.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MORE UPPER ENERGY MOVING INTO THE
EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS IT EASTWARD...TO NEAR THE EAST
COAST. MORE UPPER ENERGY MOVING INTO THE EASTERN TROUGH PUSHES A
SURFACE FRONT SOUTH OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN
CONUS...PUSHING THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF
SOUTHWARD...TO OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEX BY SUNDAY EVENING. THIS
SHIFTS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY AND
WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST TO A GENERAL WESTERLY. WHEN
COMBINED WITH A SURFACE BOUNDARY TO THE EAST OF THE FA...POPS AT OR
ABOVE SEASONAL IS LIKELY...AND WITH AN UPPER HIGH THAT HAS BEEN
MEANDERING AROUND OVER THE WESTERN CONUS ALLOWED TO BUILD EAST OVER
THE EASTERN SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY...TEMPS AT OR
ABOVE SEASONAL COME WITH.

MARINE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE WEEK...WHICH WILL SUPPORT A
CONTINUED LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THIS
MORNING...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BECOME MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN
NATURE THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH CONVECTION MORE
FAVORED AT NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING. SEAS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS
ELEVATED BETWEEN 2-3 FEET THIS MORNING SHOULD MOSTLY RANGE BETWEEN
1-2 FEET THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. /21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      89  72  89  71  89 /  30  20  30  10  30
PENSACOLA   88  76  90  74  90 /  40  30  30  10  30
DESTIN      87  77  88  75  89 /  50  30  30  10  30
EVERGREEN   90  70  90  67  92 /  40  20  40  10  30
WAYNESBORO  91  69  90  68  91 /  20  10  40  10  50
CAMDEN      92  69  90  68  93 /  30  20  40  10  30
CRESTVIEW   90  70  91  68  92 /  40  30  40  10  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KMOB 211148 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
648 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

.AVIATION UPDATE...WE ARE STARTING OFF WITH A LITTLE LOWER THAN
EXPECTED CIGS AT IFR TO LIFR LEVELS AROUND THE COAST...INCLUDING NEAR
KMOB AND KPNS THIS MORNING. VISIBILITY HAS ALSO COME DOWN TO AROUND
2SM AT KMOB. WE WILL REFLECT THESE CONDITIONS IN THE LOCAL TAF/S
THROUGH AROUND 13-14Z.

OTHERWISE...VFR TO MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING. MOST OF THE SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY HAS MOVED TO THE EAST OF THE
LOCAL TERMINALS THIS MORNING...BUT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR RE-
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION LATER THIS MORNING
AND THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS TO IFR
TO LIFR LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE HEAVIER SHRA/TSRA THAT
DEVELOP. LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME MOSTLY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. /21


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 510 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...FOR TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...
THE OVERALL UPPER AIR PATTERN CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE CONUS
EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH A RIDGE ALOFT STRENGTHENING OVER THE
SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND HIGH PLAINS WHILE A TROUGH CONTINUES TO
DEEPEN FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION.
EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS MEANWHILE CONTINUES TO SHOW A WEAK
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED FROM THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS COAST
THROUGH SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA. A MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS
ENTRENCHED ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AVERAGING BETWEEN 1.75 AND 2.0 INCHES
ACROSS COASTAL PORTIONS OF OUR CWFA. THE AIRMASS IS A LITTLE DRIER
OVER INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...BUT PWATS
STILL RANGE FROM 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES OVER THESE AREAS PER THE LATEST
GOES BLENDED TPW PRODUCT. CONVECTION HAS FIRED IN THE MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...AND EVEN OVER COASTAL
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE
EARLY THIS MORNING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS HAVE IMPACTED PORTIONS OF
OKALOOSA COUNTY... WHERE RADAR ESTIMATES 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN HAS
FALLEN AROUND THE DESTIN AND NICEVILLE COMMUNITIES. OTHER ISOLATED
SHOWERS HAVE OCCASIONALLY DEVELOPED OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION
IN THE MOIST AIRMASS EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE VICINITY OF THE
DEEPENING MID LEVEL TROUGH.

SHORT RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A MID LEVEL
LOW WILL FORM IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTHERN ALABAMA TODAY AND WILL
REMAIN IN THIS GENERAL LOCATION THROUGH TONIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO TREND LOWER TODAY...BUT SHOULD STILL RANGE
BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.75 INCHES ACROSS MOST OF OUR REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS OUR CWFA
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE GENERALLY ALONG AND TO THE
EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE DEEPENING UPPER
LOW. POPS WERE TRENDED FROM 20-30 PERCENT OVER WESTERN AREAS TO
40-50 PERCENT OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA. CONVECTION SHOULD
BECOME ISOLATED INLAND TONIGHT...WITH SCATTERED COVERAGE NEAR THE
COAST AND OFFSHORE WATERS. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID TO
UPPER 80S NEAR THE COAST TO AROUND 90 TO THE LOWER 90S INLAND. LOWS
TONIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND 70 INLAND TO THE MID 70S NEAR THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. /21

THE WET MICROBURST RISK TODAY IS MODERATE.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LOW EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS MEANDERS SLOWLY WESTWARD...FROM OVER THE FA
TO OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY. THIS IS DUE TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE FL ATLANTIC COAST BUILDS AND SHIFTS WESTWARD A BIT. THIS
LOW`S ASSOCIATED SURFACE CIRCULATION SHIFTS WESTWARD...FROM OVER THE
SOUTHERN MS/AL STATE LINE TO OVER THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS LOOSEN ITS DEFINITION AS IT GOES. A SURFACE RIDGE
BUILDS WEST OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEX...HELPING TO RESTORE A MORE
ORGANIZED ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY AND
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. WITH THE RESTORATION OF A MORE ORGANIZED ONSHORE
LOW LEVEL FLOW AND THE UPPER LOW NEAR THE AREA...POPS ARE OR ABOVE
SEASONAL EXPECTED..WITH TEMPS AT OR A BIT BELOW SEASONAL.

LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT ON)...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A
COMBINATION OF UPPER ENERGY PASSING EAST OVER THE US/CA BORDER DRAWING
THE NORTHERN END OF THE EASTERN TROUGH MORE EASTWARD AND THE UPPER
HIGH OFF THE FL COAST BUILDING WESTWARD AS IT GET FLATTENED BY THE
ENERGY SHIFTING THE NORTHERN END OF THE TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD OPENS
THE LOWER MISS RIVER UPPER LOW AND TILTS THE ENTIRE SECTION OVER THE
LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS TO A WSW TO ENE
POSITION BY FRIDAY EVENING. THE FA REMAINS GENERALLY UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...WITH TEMPS AND POPS AROUND SEASONAL.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MORE UPPER ENERGY MOVING INTO THE
EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS IT EASTWARD...TO NEAR THE EAST
COAST. MORE UPPER ENERGY MOVING INTO THE EASTERN TROUGH PUSHES A
SURFACE FRONT SOUTH OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN
CONUS...PUSHING THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF
SOUTHWARD...TO OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEX BY SUNDAY EVENING. THIS
SHIFTS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY AND
WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST TO A GENERAL WESTERLY. WHEN
COMBINED WITH A SURFACE BOUNDARY TO THE EAST OF THE FA...POPS AT OR
ABOVE SEASONAL IS LIKELY...AND WITH AN UPPER HIGH THAT HAS BEEN
MEANDERING AROUND OVER THE WESTERN CONUS ALLOWED TO BUILD EAST OVER
THE EASTERN SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY...TEMPS AT OR
ABOVE SEASONAL COME WITH.

MARINE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE WEEK...WHICH WILL SUPPORT A
CONTINUED LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THIS
MORNING...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BECOME MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN
NATURE THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH CONVECTION MORE
FAVORED AT NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING. SEAS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS
ELEVATED BETWEEN 2-3 FEET THIS MORNING SHOULD MOSTLY RANGE BETWEEN
1-2 FEET THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. /21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      89  72  89  71  89 /  30  20  30  10  30
PENSACOLA   88  76  90  74  90 /  50  30  30  10  30
DESTIN      87  77  88  75  89 /  60  30  30  10  30
EVERGREEN   90  70  90  67  92 /  30  20  40  10  30
WAYNESBORO  91  69  90  68  91 /  20  10  40  10  50
CAMDEN      92  69  90  68  93 /  20  20  40  10  30
CRESTVIEW   90  70  91  68  92 /  50  30  40  10  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

21/16





000
FXUS64 KMOB 211010
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
510 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...FOR TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...
THE OVERALL UPPER AIR PATTERN CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE CONUS
EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH A RIDGE ALOFT STRENGTHENING OVER THE
SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND HIGH PLAINS WHILE A TROUGH CONTINUES TO
DEEPEN FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION.
EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS MEANWHILE CONTINUES TO SHOW A WEAK
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED FROM THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS COAST
THROUGH SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA. A MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS
ENTRENCHED ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AVERAGING BETWEEN 1.75 AND 2.0 INCHES
ACROSS COASTAL PORTIONS OF OUR CWFA. THE AIRMASS IS A LITTLE DRIER
OVER INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...BUT PWATS
STILL RANGE FROM 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES OVER THESE AREAS PER THE LATEST
GOES BLENDED TPW PRODUCT. CONVECTION HAS FIRED IN THE MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...AND EVEN OVER COASTAL
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE
EARLY THIS MORNING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS HAVE IMPACTED PORTIONS OF
OKALOOSA COUNTY... WHERE RADAR ESTIMATES 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN HAS
FALLEN AROUND THE DESTIN AND NICEVILLE COMMUNITIES. OTHER ISOLATED
SHOWERS HAVE OCCASIONALLY DEVELOPED OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION
IN THE MOIST AIRMASS EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE VICINITY OF THE
DEEPENING MID LEVEL TROUGH.

SHORT RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A MID LEVEL
LOW WILL FORM IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTHERN ALABAMA TODAY AND WILL
REMAIN IN THIS GENERAL LOCATION THROUGH TONIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO TREND LOWER TODAY...BUT SHOULD STILL RANGE
BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.75 INCHES ACROSS MOST OF OUR REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS OUR CWFA
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE GENERALLY ALONG AND TO THE
EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE DEEPENING UPPER
LOW. POPS WERE TRENDED FROM 20-30 PERCENT OVER WESTERN AREAS TO
40-50 PERCENT OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA. CONVECTION SHOULD
BECOME ISOLATED INLAND TONIGHT...WITH SCATTERED COVERAGE NEAR THE
COAST AND OFFSHORE WATERS. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID TO
UPPER 80S NEAR THE COAST TO AROUND 90 TO THE LOWER 90S INLAND. LOWS
TONIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND 70 INLAND TO THE MID 70S NEAR THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. /21

THE WET MICROBURST RISK TODAY IS MODERATE.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LOW EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS MEANDERS SLOWLY WESTWARD...FROM OVER THE FA
TO OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY. THIS IS DUE TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE FL ATLANTIC COAST BUILDS AND SHIFTS WESTWARD A BIT. THIS
LOW`S ASSOCIATED SURFACE CIRCULATION SHIFTS WESTWARD...FROM OVER THE
SOUTHERN MS/AL STATE LINE TO OVER THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS LOOSEN ITS DEFINITION AS IT GOES. A SURFACE RIDGE
BUILDS WEST OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEX...HELPING TO RESTORE A MORE
ORGANIZED ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY AND
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. WITH THE RESTORATION OF A MORE ORGANIZED ONSHORE
LOW LEVEL FLOW AND THE UPPER LOW NEAR THE AREA...POPS ARE OR ABOVE
SEASONAL EXPECTED..WITH TEMPS AT OR A BIT BELOW SEASONAL.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT ON)...WEDNEDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A
COMBINATION OF UPPER ENERGY PASSING EAST OVER THE US/CA BORDER DRAWING
THE NORTHERN END OF THE EASTERN TROUGH MORE EASTWARD AND THE UPPER
HIGH OFF THE FL COAST BUILDING WESTWARD AS IT GET FLATTENED BY THE
ENERGY SHIFTING THE NORTHERN END OF THE TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD OPENS
THE LOWER MISS RIVER UPPER LOW AND TILTS THE ENTIRE SECTION OVER THE
LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS TO A WSW TO ENE
POSITION BY FRIDAY EVENING. THE FA REMAINS GENERALLY UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...WITH TEMPS AND POPS AROUND SEASONAL.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MORE UPPER ENERGY MOVING INTO THE
EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS IT EASTWARD...TO NEAR THE EAST
COAST. MORE UPPER ENERGY MOVING INTO THE EASTERN TROUGH PUSHES A
SURFACE FRONT SOUTH OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN
CONUS...PUSHING THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF
SOUTHWARD...TO OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEX BY SUNDAY EVENING. THIS
SHIFTS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY AND
WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST TO A GENERAL WESTERLY. WHEN
COMBINED WITH A SURFACE BOUNDARY TO THE EAST OF THE FA...POPS AT OR
ABOVE SEASONAL IS LIKELY...AND WITH AN UPPER HIGH THAT HAS BEEN
MEANDERING AROUND OVER THE WESTERN CONUS ALLOWED TO BUILD EAST OVER
THE EASTERN SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY...TEMPS AT OR
ABOVE SEASONAL COME WITH.

&&

.AVIATION...
[21.12Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION]...VFR CEILINGS OCCASIONALLY
LOWERING TO MVFR LEVELS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING.
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE IN THE NORTHWEST FL PANHANDLE
POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE KPNS TERMINAL. MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS TO IFR TO LIFR LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE HEAVIER
SHRA/TSRA. LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME MOSTLY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. /21

&&

.MARINE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE WEEK...WHICH WILL SUPPORT A
CONTINUED LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THIS
MORNING...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BECOME MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN
NATURE THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH CONVECTION MORE
FAVORED AT NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING. SEAS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS
ELEVATED BETWEEN 2-3 FEET THIS MORNING SHOULD MOSTLY RANGE BETWEEN
1-2 FEET THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. /21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      89  72  89  71  89 /  30  20  30  10  30
PENSACOLA   88  76  90  74  90 /  50  30  30  10  30
DESTIN      87  77  88  75  89 /  60  30  30  10  30
EVERGREEN   90  70  90  67  92 /  30  20  40  10  30
WAYNESBORO  91  69  90  68  91 /  20  10  40  10  50
CAMDEN      92  69  90  68  93 /  20  20  40  10  30
CRESTVIEW   90  70  91  68  92 /  50  30  40  10  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

21/16








000
FXUS64 KMOB 211010
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
510 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...FOR TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...
THE OVERALL UPPER AIR PATTERN CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE CONUS
EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH A RIDGE ALOFT STRENGTHENING OVER THE
SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND HIGH PLAINS WHILE A TROUGH CONTINUES TO
DEEPEN FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION.
EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS MEANWHILE CONTINUES TO SHOW A WEAK
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED FROM THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS COAST
THROUGH SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA. A MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS
ENTRENCHED ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AVERAGING BETWEEN 1.75 AND 2.0 INCHES
ACROSS COASTAL PORTIONS OF OUR CWFA. THE AIRMASS IS A LITTLE DRIER
OVER INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...BUT PWATS
STILL RANGE FROM 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES OVER THESE AREAS PER THE LATEST
GOES BLENDED TPW PRODUCT. CONVECTION HAS FIRED IN THE MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...AND EVEN OVER COASTAL
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE
EARLY THIS MORNING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS HAVE IMPACTED PORTIONS OF
OKALOOSA COUNTY... WHERE RADAR ESTIMATES 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN HAS
FALLEN AROUND THE DESTIN AND NICEVILLE COMMUNITIES. OTHER ISOLATED
SHOWERS HAVE OCCASIONALLY DEVELOPED OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION
IN THE MOIST AIRMASS EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE VICINITY OF THE
DEEPENING MID LEVEL TROUGH.

SHORT RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A MID LEVEL
LOW WILL FORM IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTHERN ALABAMA TODAY AND WILL
REMAIN IN THIS GENERAL LOCATION THROUGH TONIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO TREND LOWER TODAY...BUT SHOULD STILL RANGE
BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.75 INCHES ACROSS MOST OF OUR REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS OUR CWFA
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE GENERALLY ALONG AND TO THE
EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE DEEPENING UPPER
LOW. POPS WERE TRENDED FROM 20-30 PERCENT OVER WESTERN AREAS TO
40-50 PERCENT OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA. CONVECTION SHOULD
BECOME ISOLATED INLAND TONIGHT...WITH SCATTERED COVERAGE NEAR THE
COAST AND OFFSHORE WATERS. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID TO
UPPER 80S NEAR THE COAST TO AROUND 90 TO THE LOWER 90S INLAND. LOWS
TONIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND 70 INLAND TO THE MID 70S NEAR THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. /21

THE WET MICROBURST RISK TODAY IS MODERATE.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LOW EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS MEANDERS SLOWLY WESTWARD...FROM OVER THE FA
TO OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY. THIS IS DUE TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE FL ATLANTIC COAST BUILDS AND SHIFTS WESTWARD A BIT. THIS
LOW`S ASSOCIATED SURFACE CIRCULATION SHIFTS WESTWARD...FROM OVER THE
SOUTHERN MS/AL STATE LINE TO OVER THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS LOOSEN ITS DEFINITION AS IT GOES. A SURFACE RIDGE
BUILDS WEST OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEX...HELPING TO RESTORE A MORE
ORGANIZED ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY AND
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. WITH THE RESTORATION OF A MORE ORGANIZED ONSHORE
LOW LEVEL FLOW AND THE UPPER LOW NEAR THE AREA...POPS ARE OR ABOVE
SEASONAL EXPECTED..WITH TEMPS AT OR A BIT BELOW SEASONAL.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT ON)...WEDNEDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A
COMBINATION OF UPPER ENERGY PASSING EAST OVER THE US/CA BORDER DRAWING
THE NORTHERN END OF THE EASTERN TROUGH MORE EASTWARD AND THE UPPER
HIGH OFF THE FL COAST BUILDING WESTWARD AS IT GET FLATTENED BY THE
ENERGY SHIFTING THE NORTHERN END OF THE TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD OPENS
THE LOWER MISS RIVER UPPER LOW AND TILTS THE ENTIRE SECTION OVER THE
LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS TO A WSW TO ENE
POSITION BY FRIDAY EVENING. THE FA REMAINS GENERALLY UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...WITH TEMPS AND POPS AROUND SEASONAL.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MORE UPPER ENERGY MOVING INTO THE
EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS IT EASTWARD...TO NEAR THE EAST
COAST. MORE UPPER ENERGY MOVING INTO THE EASTERN TROUGH PUSHES A
SURFACE FRONT SOUTH OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN
CONUS...PUSHING THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF
SOUTHWARD...TO OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEX BY SUNDAY EVENING. THIS
SHIFTS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY AND
WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST TO A GENERAL WESTERLY. WHEN
COMBINED WITH A SURFACE BOUNDARY TO THE EAST OF THE FA...POPS AT OR
ABOVE SEASONAL IS LIKELY...AND WITH AN UPPER HIGH THAT HAS BEEN
MEANDERING AROUND OVER THE WESTERN CONUS ALLOWED TO BUILD EAST OVER
THE EASTERN SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY...TEMPS AT OR
ABOVE SEASONAL COME WITH.

&&

.AVIATION...
[21.12Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION]...VFR CEILINGS OCCASIONALLY
LOWERING TO MVFR LEVELS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING.
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE IN THE NORTHWEST FL PANHANDLE
POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE KPNS TERMINAL. MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS TO IFR TO LIFR LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE HEAVIER
SHRA/TSRA. LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME MOSTLY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. /21

&&

.MARINE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE WEEK...WHICH WILL SUPPORT A
CONTINUED LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THIS
MORNING...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BECOME MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN
NATURE THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH CONVECTION MORE
FAVORED AT NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING. SEAS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS
ELEVATED BETWEEN 2-3 FEET THIS MORNING SHOULD MOSTLY RANGE BETWEEN
1-2 FEET THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. /21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      89  72  89  71  89 /  30  20  30  10  30
PENSACOLA   88  76  90  74  90 /  50  30  30  10  30
DESTIN      87  77  88  75  89 /  60  30  30  10  30
EVERGREEN   90  70  90  67  92 /  30  20  40  10  30
WAYNESBORO  91  69  90  68  91 /  20  10  40  10  50
CAMDEN      92  69  90  68  93 /  20  20  40  10  30
CRESTVIEW   90  70  91  68  92 /  50  30  40  10  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

21/16







000
FXUS64 KMOB 210449 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1146 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.AVIATION...[21.00Z-2106Z ISSUANCES]...MOSTLY VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH 22.06Z. LOWER CIGS MOSTLY IN AND AROUND SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...BECOMING BETTER DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MON MORNING...THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY SOUTHWEST AT 4 TO
8 KNOTS THROUGH 22.06Z. 32/EE

&&

.UPDATE...DID A QUICK UPDATE TO LOWER POPS THROUGH 1 AM CDT MON
MORNING. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP ALONG THE
COAST AND OVER THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS AFTER 1 AM THEN SHIFT INLAND
OVER THE LOWER PARTS OF THE CWFA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON
MON. PERIODS OF VERY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS UP TO AROUND 35 MPH
ALONG THE WITH OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE THE
MAIN THREATS WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON
MON. 32/EE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 734 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014/

UPDATE...QUICK UPDATE WAS SENT JUST A LITTLE WHILE AGO TO ISSUE A
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FOR AREA BEACHES. BALDWIN COUNTY BEACHES ARE
REPORTING VERY DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS WITH GULF SHORES BEACHES
CLOSED. RIP CURRENTS ALSO PRESENT ALONG NW FL PANHANDLE. A LARGE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON RESULTED IN A SUDDEN INCREASE
IN WINDS/SEAS...AND IN TURN PRODUCED DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS.
WHILE WINDS AND SEAS ARE SUBSIDING...IT WILL TAKE AWHILE FOR THE RIP
CURRENT RISK TO DIMINISH. 34/JFB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      86  72  90  72  93 /  40  40  30  20  30
PENSACOLA   84  74  90  76  90 /  50  60  40  20  40
DESTIN      83  77  87  77  90 /  50  60  50  20  40
EVERGREEN   89  69  91  70  94 /  50  30  30  20  40
WAYNESBORO  87  66  91  69  93 /  30  10  20  10  20
CAMDEN      90  68  92  69  93 /  40  20  20  20  30
CRESTVIEW   87  71  91  70  94 /  50  40  40  20  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$













000
FXUS64 KMOB 210449 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1146 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.AVIATION...[21.00Z-2106Z ISSUANCES]...MOSTLY VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH 22.06Z. LOWER CIGS MOSTLY IN AND AROUND SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...BECOMING BETTER DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MON MORNING...THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY SOUTHWEST AT 4 TO
8 KNOTS THROUGH 22.06Z. 32/EE

&&

.UPDATE...DID A QUICK UPDATE TO LOWER POPS THROUGH 1 AM CDT MON
MORNING. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP ALONG THE
COAST AND OVER THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS AFTER 1 AM THEN SHIFT INLAND
OVER THE LOWER PARTS OF THE CWFA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON
MON. PERIODS OF VERY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS UP TO AROUND 35 MPH
ALONG THE WITH OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE THE
MAIN THREATS WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON
MON. 32/EE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 734 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014/

UPDATE...QUICK UPDATE WAS SENT JUST A LITTLE WHILE AGO TO ISSUE A
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FOR AREA BEACHES. BALDWIN COUNTY BEACHES ARE
REPORTING VERY DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS WITH GULF SHORES BEACHES
CLOSED. RIP CURRENTS ALSO PRESENT ALONG NW FL PANHANDLE. A LARGE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON RESULTED IN A SUDDEN INCREASE
IN WINDS/SEAS...AND IN TURN PRODUCED DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS.
WHILE WINDS AND SEAS ARE SUBSIDING...IT WILL TAKE AWHILE FOR THE RIP
CURRENT RISK TO DIMINISH. 34/JFB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      86  72  90  72  93 /  40  40  30  20  30
PENSACOLA   84  74  90  76  90 /  50  60  40  20  40
DESTIN      83  77  87  77  90 /  50  60  50  20  40
EVERGREEN   89  69  91  70  94 /  50  30  30  20  40
WAYNESBORO  87  66  91  69  93 /  30  10  20  10  20
CAMDEN      90  68  92  69  93 /  40  20  20  20  30
CRESTVIEW   87  71  91  70  94 /  50  40  40  20  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$














000
FXUS64 KMOB 210235 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
935 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.UPDATE...DID A QUICK UPDATE TO LOWER POPS THROUGH 1 AM CDT MON
MORNING. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP ALONG THE
COAST AND OVER THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS AFTER 1 AM THEN SHIFT INLAND
OVER THE LOWER PARTS OF THE CWFA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON
MON. PERIODS OF VERY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS UP TO AROUND 35 MPH
ALONG THE WITH OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE THE
MAIN THREATS WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON
MON. 32/EE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 734 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014/

UPDATE...QUICK UPDATE WAS SENT JUST A LITTLE WHILE AGO TO ISSUE A
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FOR AREA BEACHES. BALDWIN COUNTY BEACHES ARE
REPORTING VERY DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS WITH GULF SHORES BEACHES
CLOSED. RIP CURRENTS ALSO PRESENT ALONG NW FL PANHANDLE. A LARGE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON RESULTED IN A SUDDEN INCREASE
IN WINDS/SEAS...AND IN TURN PRODUCED DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS.
WHILE WINDS AND SEAS ARE SUBSIDING...IT WILL TAKE AWHILE FOR THE RIP
CURRENT RISK TO DIMINISH. 34/JFB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      86  72  90  72  93 /  40  40  30  20  30
PENSACOLA   84  74  90  76  90 /  50  60  40  20  40
DESTIN      83  77  87  77  90 /  50  60  50  20  40
EVERGREEN   89  69  91  70  94 /  50  30  30  20  40
WAYNESBORO  87  66  91  69  93 /  30  10  20  10  20
CAMDEN      90  68  92  69  93 /  40  20  20  20  30
CRESTVIEW   87  71  91  70  94 /  50  40  40  20  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KMOB 210235 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
935 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.UPDATE...DID A QUICK UPDATE TO LOWER POPS THROUGH 1 AM CDT MON
MORNING. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP ALONG THE
COAST AND OVER THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS AFTER 1 AM THEN SHIFT INLAND
OVER THE LOWER PARTS OF THE CWFA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON
MON. PERIODS OF VERY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS UP TO AROUND 35 MPH
ALONG THE WITH OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE THE
MAIN THREATS WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON
MON. 32/EE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 734 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014/

UPDATE...QUICK UPDATE WAS SENT JUST A LITTLE WHILE AGO TO ISSUE A
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FOR AREA BEACHES. BALDWIN COUNTY BEACHES ARE
REPORTING VERY DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS WITH GULF SHORES BEACHES
CLOSED. RIP CURRENTS ALSO PRESENT ALONG NW FL PANHANDLE. A LARGE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON RESULTED IN A SUDDEN INCREASE
IN WINDS/SEAS...AND IN TURN PRODUCED DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS.
WHILE WINDS AND SEAS ARE SUBSIDING...IT WILL TAKE AWHILE FOR THE RIP
CURRENT RISK TO DIMINISH. 34/JFB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      86  72  90  72  93 /  40  40  30  20  30
PENSACOLA   84  74  90  76  90 /  50  60  40  20  40
DESTIN      83  77  87  77  90 /  50  60  50  20  40
EVERGREEN   89  69  91  70  94 /  50  30  30  20  40
WAYNESBORO  87  66  91  69  93 /  30  10  20  10  20
CAMDEN      90  68  92  69  93 /  40  20  20  20  30
CRESTVIEW   87  71  91  70  94 /  50  40  40  20  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMOB 210034 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
734 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.UPDATE...QUICK UPDATE WAS SENT JUST A LITTLE WHILE AGO TO ISSUE A
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FOR AREA BEACHES. BALDWIN COUNTY BEACHES ARE
REPORTING VERY DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS WITH GULF SHORES BEACHES
CLOSED. RIP CURRENTS ALSO PRESENT ALONG NW FL PANHANDLE. A LARGE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON RESULTED IN A SUDDEN INCREASE
IN WINDS/SEAS...AND IN TURN PRODUCED DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS.
WHILE WINDS AND SEAS ARE SUBSIDING...IT WILL TAKE AWHILE FOR THE RIP
CURRENT RISK TO DIMINISH. 34/JFB

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KMOB 210034 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
734 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.UPDATE...QUICK UPDATE WAS SENT JUST A LITTLE WHILE AGO TO ISSUE A
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FOR AREA BEACHES. BALDWIN COUNTY BEACHES ARE
REPORTING VERY DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS WITH GULF SHORES BEACHES
CLOSED. RIP CURRENTS ALSO PRESENT ALONG NW FL PANHANDLE. A LARGE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON RESULTED IN A SUDDEN INCREASE
IN WINDS/SEAS...AND IN TURN PRODUCED DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS.
WHILE WINDS AND SEAS ARE SUBSIDING...IT WILL TAKE AWHILE FOR THE RIP
CURRENT RISK TO DIMINISH. 34/JFB

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMOB 202342 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
635 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.AVIATION...[21.00Z ISSUANCE]...MOSTLY VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH 22.00Z. LOWER CIGS MOSTLY IN AND AROUND SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...BECOMING BETTER DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MON MORNING...THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY SOUTHWEST AT 4 TO 8 KNOTS
THROUGH 22.00Z. 32/EE

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND MONDAY)...A MOIST LOW TO MID LEVEL
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING
BETWEEN A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALVES OF
MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA. THE BASE OF A LARGE EASTERN CONUS UPPER
TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE DEEP SOUTH INTO MONDAY...WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST CARVING OUT A CUT
OFF UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA BY NOON MONDAY. EXPECT SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT...ALONG AND SOUTH OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY...WITH
ISOLATED COVERAGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ALONG THE COAST
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ON
MONDAY ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR WHILE A GRADUAL DECREASE
IN COVERAGE OCCURS WEST OF I-65.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 66 TO 72 DEGREES MOST LOCATIONS...WITH
MID 70S ALONG THE COAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL REACH NEAR 90
DEGREES INLAND AREAS...WITH MID/UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST. /22


.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND
ASSOCIATED WEAK SFC LOW WILL SLOWLY RETROGRADE WESTWARD ON TUESDAY
AS A STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THE
HIGHER RAIN CHANCES ON TUESDAY WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE AREA...ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW. THE SFC WILL DISSIPATE
ON WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW OPENS UP AND MERGES WITH A DIGGING
TROUGH ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. THIS WILL SEND A WEAK
COLD FRONT TOWARD THE AREA WHICH WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE ACROSS
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA. HOWEVER...THE UPPER TROUGH/WEAKNESS
WILL LINGER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND MAINTAIN UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WITH CONTINUED SCATTERED POPS. /13

&&

.AVIATION [20.18Z KMOB/KBFM/KPNS TAF ISSUANCE]...MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THOUGH LOCALIZED MVFR CIGS AND IFR OR LOWER
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING AS SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA BECOME MORE FOCUSED ALONG
THE COAST. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY RETURN TO THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST AT 7-12 KNOTS. /22

&&

.MARINE...A LIGHT WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST
THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PERSIST ACROSS
THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. WINDS COULD MOMENTARILY SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST OR NORTH EARLY MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE AREA
BAYS AND NEAR SHORE GULF WATERS AS A MEANDERING SURFACE BOUNDARY
SLIPS SOUTH INTO THE GULF. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO FORM AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH TONIGHT THEN
DECREASE IN COVERAGE ON MONDAY. /22


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      72  90  72  93  72 /  40  30  20  30  20
PENSACOLA   74  90  76  90  75 /  60  40  20  40  20
DESTIN      77  87  77  90  78 /  60  50  20  40  20
EVERGREEN   69  91  70  94  70 /  30  30  20  40  20
WAYNESBORO  66  91  69  93  69 /  20  20  10  20  20
CAMDEN      68  92  69  93  68 /  20  20  20  30  20
CRESTVIEW   71  91  70  94  70 /  40  40  20  40  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$
















000
FXUS64 KMOB 202342 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
635 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.AVIATION...[21.00Z ISSUANCE]...MOSTLY VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH 22.00Z. LOWER CIGS MOSTLY IN AND AROUND SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...BECOMING BETTER DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MON MORNING...THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY SOUTHWEST AT 4 TO 8 KNOTS
THROUGH 22.00Z. 32/EE

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND MONDAY)...A MOIST LOW TO MID LEVEL
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING
BETWEEN A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALVES OF
MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA. THE BASE OF A LARGE EASTERN CONUS UPPER
TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE DEEP SOUTH INTO MONDAY...WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST CARVING OUT A CUT
OFF UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA BY NOON MONDAY. EXPECT SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT...ALONG AND SOUTH OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY...WITH
ISOLATED COVERAGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ALONG THE COAST
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ON
MONDAY ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR WHILE A GRADUAL DECREASE
IN COVERAGE OCCURS WEST OF I-65.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 66 TO 72 DEGREES MOST LOCATIONS...WITH
MID 70S ALONG THE COAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL REACH NEAR 90
DEGREES INLAND AREAS...WITH MID/UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST. /22


.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND
ASSOCIATED WEAK SFC LOW WILL SLOWLY RETROGRADE WESTWARD ON TUESDAY
AS A STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THE
HIGHER RAIN CHANCES ON TUESDAY WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE AREA...ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW. THE SFC WILL DISSIPATE
ON WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW OPENS UP AND MERGES WITH A DIGGING
TROUGH ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. THIS WILL SEND A WEAK
COLD FRONT TOWARD THE AREA WHICH WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE ACROSS
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA. HOWEVER...THE UPPER TROUGH/WEAKNESS
WILL LINGER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND MAINTAIN UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WITH CONTINUED SCATTERED POPS. /13

&&

.AVIATION [20.18Z KMOB/KBFM/KPNS TAF ISSUANCE]...MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THOUGH LOCALIZED MVFR CIGS AND IFR OR LOWER
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING AS SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA BECOME MORE FOCUSED ALONG
THE COAST. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY RETURN TO THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST AT 7-12 KNOTS. /22

&&

.MARINE...A LIGHT WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST
THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PERSIST ACROSS
THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. WINDS COULD MOMENTARILY SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST OR NORTH EARLY MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE AREA
BAYS AND NEAR SHORE GULF WATERS AS A MEANDERING SURFACE BOUNDARY
SLIPS SOUTH INTO THE GULF. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO FORM AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH TONIGHT THEN
DECREASE IN COVERAGE ON MONDAY. /22


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      72  90  72  93  72 /  40  30  20  30  20
PENSACOLA   74  90  76  90  75 /  60  40  20  40  20
DESTIN      77  87  77  90  78 /  60  50  20  40  20
EVERGREEN   69  91  70  94  70 /  30  30  20  40  20
WAYNESBORO  66  91  69  93  69 /  20  20  10  20  20
CAMDEN      68  92  69  93  68 /  20  20  20  30  20
CRESTVIEW   71  91  70  94  70 /  40  40  20  40  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$















000
FXUS64 KMOB 202056
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
350 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND MONDAY)...A MOIST LOW TO MID LEVEL
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING
BETWEEN A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALVES OF
MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA. THE BASE OF A LARGE EASTERN CONUS UPPER
TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE DEEP SOUTH INTO MONDAY...WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST CARVING OUT A CUT
OFF UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA BY NOON MONDAY. EXPECT SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT...ALONG AND SOUTH OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY...WITH
ISOLATED COVERAGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ALONG THE COAST
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ON
MONDAY ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR WHILE A GRADUAL DECREASE
IN COVERAGE OCCURS WEST OF I-65.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 66 TO 72 DEGREES MOST LOCATIONS...WITH
MID 70S ALONG THE COAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL REACH NEAR 90
DEGREES INLAND AREAS...WITH MID/UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST. /22


.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND
ASSOCIATED WEAK SFC LOW WILL SLOWLY RETROGRADE WESTWARD ON TUESDAY
AS A STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THE
HIGHER RAIN CHANCES ON TUESDAY WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE AREA...ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW. THE SFC WILL DISSIPATE
ON WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW OPENS UP AND MERGES WITH A DIGGING
TROUGH ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. THIS WILL SEND A WEAK
COLD FRONT TOWARD THE AREA WHICH WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE ACROSS
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA. HOWEVER...THE UPPER TROUGH/WEAKNESS WILL
LINGER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND MAINTAIN UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
WITH CONTINUED SCATTERED POPS. /13

&&

.AVIATION [20.18Z KMOB/KBFM/KPNS TAF ISSUANCE]...MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THOUGH LOCALIZED MVFR CIGS AND IFR OR LOWER
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING AS SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA BECOME MORE FOCUSED ALONG
THE COAST. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY RETURN TO THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST AT 7-12 KNOTS. /22

&&

.MARINE...A LIGHT WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST
THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PERSIST ACROSS
THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. WINDS COULD MOMENTARILY SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST OR NORTH EARLY MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE AREA
BAYS AND NEAR SHORE GULF WATERS AS A MEANDERING SURFACE BOUNDARY
SLIPS SOUTH INTO THE GULF. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO FORM AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH TONIGHT THEN
DECREASE IN COVERAGE ON MONDAY. /22


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      72  90  72  93  72 /  40  30  20  30  20
PENSACOLA   74  90  76  90  75 /  60  40  20  40  20
DESTIN      77  87  77  90  78 /  60  50  20  40  20
EVERGREEN   69  91  70  94  70 /  30  30  20  40  20
WAYNESBORO  66  91  69  93  69 /  20  20  10  20  20
CAMDEN      68  92  69  93  68 /  20  20  20  30  20
CRESTVIEW   71  91  70  94  70 /  40  40  20  40  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$













000
FXUS64 KMOB 202056
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
350 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND MONDAY)...A MOIST LOW TO MID LEVEL
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING
BETWEEN A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALVES OF
MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA. THE BASE OF A LARGE EASTERN CONUS UPPER
TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE DEEP SOUTH INTO MONDAY...WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST CARVING OUT A CUT
OFF UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA BY NOON MONDAY. EXPECT SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT...ALONG AND SOUTH OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY...WITH
ISOLATED COVERAGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ALONG THE COAST
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ON
MONDAY ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR WHILE A GRADUAL DECREASE
IN COVERAGE OCCURS WEST OF I-65.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 66 TO 72 DEGREES MOST LOCATIONS...WITH
MID 70S ALONG THE COAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL REACH NEAR 90
DEGREES INLAND AREAS...WITH MID/UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST. /22


.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND
ASSOCIATED WEAK SFC LOW WILL SLOWLY RETROGRADE WESTWARD ON TUESDAY
AS A STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THE
HIGHER RAIN CHANCES ON TUESDAY WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE AREA...ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW. THE SFC WILL DISSIPATE
ON WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW OPENS UP AND MERGES WITH A DIGGING
TROUGH ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. THIS WILL SEND A WEAK
COLD FRONT TOWARD THE AREA WHICH WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE ACROSS
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA. HOWEVER...THE UPPER TROUGH/WEAKNESS WILL
LINGER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND MAINTAIN UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
WITH CONTINUED SCATTERED POPS. /13

&&

.AVIATION [20.18Z KMOB/KBFM/KPNS TAF ISSUANCE]...MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THOUGH LOCALIZED MVFR CIGS AND IFR OR LOWER
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING AS SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA BECOME MORE FOCUSED ALONG
THE COAST. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY RETURN TO THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST AT 7-12 KNOTS. /22

&&

.MARINE...A LIGHT WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST
THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PERSIST ACROSS
THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. WINDS COULD MOMENTARILY SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST OR NORTH EARLY MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE AREA
BAYS AND NEAR SHORE GULF WATERS AS A MEANDERING SURFACE BOUNDARY
SLIPS SOUTH INTO THE GULF. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO FORM AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH TONIGHT THEN
DECREASE IN COVERAGE ON MONDAY. /22


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      72  90  72  93  72 /  40  30  20  30  20
PENSACOLA   74  90  76  90  75 /  60  40  20  40  20
DESTIN      77  87  77  90  78 /  60  50  20  40  20
EVERGREEN   69  91  70  94  70 /  30  30  20  40  20
WAYNESBORO  66  91  69  93  69 /  20  20  10  20  20
CAMDEN      68  92  69  93  68 /  20  20  20  30  20
CRESTVIEW   71  91  70  94  70 /  40  40  20  40  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$












000
FXUS64 KMOB 201750 AAC
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1250 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.AVIATION [20.18Z KMOB/KBFM/KPNS TAF ISSUANCE]...MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THOUGH LOCALIZED MVFR CIGS AND IFR OR LOWER
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING AS SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA BECOME MORE FOCUSED ALONG
THE COAST. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY RETURN TO THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST AT 7-12 KNOTS. /22

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1119 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014/

SHORT TERM UPDATE...THE SURFACE BOUNDARY HAS MANAGED TO PUSH
SOUTHEAST THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...AND IS
BEGINNING TO STALL FROM CRESTVIEW TO NAVARRE BEACH TO THE OFFSHORE
WATERS SOUTH OF ALABAMA. WEAK SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF A UPPER
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE MOVING OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO HAS
ALLOWED MUCH OF THE RAIN TO END ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR NOW.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE STALLED BOUNDARY BEGINS TO RETREAT
NORTHWARD AND INSTABILITY INCREASES. TEMPERATURE FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK. UPDATED GRIDS TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND WINDS...AND
BOTH THE GRIDS AND ZONE FORECAST PACKAGE UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT. /22

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 801 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014/

MARINE UPDATE...WE SENT AN AMENDED MARINE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR A
MORE NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION TO THE WIND OVER THE BAYS AND SOUNDS
THIS MORNING...AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER SPEEDS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS 20
TO 60 NM OUT. WHILE WINDS MAY BE MORE CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN FARTHER
OFFSHORE...THE HIGHER SPEEDS HAVE PERSISTED LONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT A
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION MENTION. /21

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 519 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...FOR TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...
BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE FROM THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
VALLEY TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING WHILE SURFACE ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT STRETCHES FROM FAR SOUTHEAST TEXAS...THROUGH
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA... AND INTO SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND CENTRAL
ALABAMA. A VERY MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA ON THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY THIS
MORNING. THE GOES BLENDED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT IS
ESTIMATING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 50-53 MM...OR GENERALLY
AROUND 2.0 TO 2.1 INCHES ACROSS THE CWFA EARLY THIS MORNING...AND
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA WITHIN THE DEEPLY
MOIST AIRMASS.

THE MID LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE CONUS
TODAY AS A RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES/SOUTHWESTERN
STATES AND A TROUGH DIGS FROM THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS TO THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST. THE SURFACE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MEANWHILE
SLOWLY EDGE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND INTERIOR
SOUTHWEST ALABAMA. A DRIER AIRMASS WILL FILTER INTO MUCH OF CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND WESTERN ALABAMA BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AND
AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO DEEPEN. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
WILL DECREASE TO 1.25 TO 1.5 INCHES OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL REMAIN IN THE 1.75 TO 2 INCH
RANGE NEAR COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE CWFA. THE LATEST THINKING IS THAT
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL BE LESSER OVER NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWFA TODAY WITHIN THE DRIER AIRMASS...WHILE BETTER CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ESPECIALLY ALONG AND TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR TODAY WITHIN THE FAVORED REGION OF
LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS. HIGHS TODAY WERE TRENDED A LITTLE
BELOW GUIDANCE...GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S OVER MOST
LOCATIONS.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO FURTHER DEEPEN OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. TONIGHT...AND DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT
FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST/SOUTH
CENTRAL ALABAMA...WHILE DEEPER MOISTURE /PWATS 1.7 TO 2 INCHES/ HOLD
NEAR THE COAST. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE LOWER ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT...BUT WILL MAINTAIN AT LEAST ISOLATED COVERAGE
OVER THE INTERIOR...AND SCATTERED COVERAGE NEAR THE COAST. LOWS
TONIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND 70 OVER INTERIOR AREAS TO THE LOWER
TO MID 70S NEAR THE COAST. /21

THE WET MICROBURST RISK TODAY IS MODERATE.

MONDAY...GUIDANCE IS NOT ADVERTISING THE BASE OF THE EASTERN UPPER
TROUGH BREAKING OFF AND FORMING A CLOSED LOW...CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN
AL/GA. A MORE ORGANIZED SURFACE CIRCULATION (BUT NOT CLOSED
LOW)...CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FA. WITH AN ENHANCED
CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE EASTERN THIRD TO HALF OF THE FA...HAVE PUT IN
POPS AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL...WITH TEMPS AROUND OR A BIT BELOW DUE TO
THE PRECIP/CLOUD COVERAGE. HAVE WENT ABOVE WITH TEMPS/BELOW WITH
POPS.

MONDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LOW MEANDERS WEST...BECOMING CENTERED OVER
THE FA BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE SURFACE CIRCULATION SHIFTS WEST...TO
OVER SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI. THIS SHIFTS THE AREA OF BEST POPS
WESTWARD...WITH ABOVE SEASONAL POPS ALONG THE EASTERN BOARDER TO JUST
BELOW WEST. DO SEE A MORE ORGANIZED SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER EASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE FA...THOUGH NOT VERY STRONG ATTM. THIS WILL HELP TO
LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF TRAINING CELLS AND ANY CHANCE OF FLOODING OVER
EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FA. PONDING OF WATER FROM ANY STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS IS STILL POSSIBLE. IF THE AMOUNT OF RAIN UP UNTIL THIS
POINT PROVES TO BE MORE THAN ANTICIPATED...THE CHANCE OF MORE SERIOUS
WATER PROBLEMS EXISTS. DO NOT ANTICIPATE THIS HAPPENING ATTM...BUT
FEEL IT IS WISE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS.

TUESDAY...THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS WEST A BIT MORE...WITH THE SURFACE
CIRCULATION CENTER MOVING TO OVER THE SW-ERN MS.LA AREA. THIS
INTRODUCES A MORE ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE FA...BUT AGAIN...IT REMAINS ON THE LIGHT SIDE...SO AN
ABUNDANCE OF TRAINING CELLS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BEA A PROBLEM ATTM.

LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT ON)...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS WEST...TO OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY AND
OPENS AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND EASTERN
GULF OF MEX. POPS ABOVE SEASONAL WITH TEMPS AROUND SEASONAL.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE WESTERN ATLANTIC/EASTERN GULF
UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD WESTWARD AS THE UPPER ENERGY MOVING
EAST OVER THE US/CA BORDER PUSHES THE NORTHERN END OF THE UPPER
TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN PRESENT OVER THE EASTERN CONUS EASTWARD. THE
RESULT IS THE PORTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS
GETTING TILTED TO AN WEST TO EAST POSITION OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST. THE UPPER HIGH THAT HAS BEEN PRESENT OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
BUILDS BACK EAST...OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO LOWER MISS RIVER
VALLEY. THE GFS IS ADVERTISING MORE OF AN AFFECT OF THE UPPER RIDGE
THEN THE ECMWF WITH TEMPS WELL ABOVE BEING ADVERTISED IN THE GFS AND
A BIT ABOVE IN THE ECMWF. HELPING WITH THE TEMPS IS A SURFACE RIDGE
BUILDING WEST OVER THE GULF OF MEX...PROVIDING A MORE ORGANIZED
SYNOPTIC WESTERLY FLOW. HAVE WENT BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS
WITH RESPECT TO TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL)...WITH POPS
AROUND SEASONAL.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
US/CA BORDER GETS DRAWN INTO THE EASTERN UPPER TROUGH...DEEPENING IT
AND PUSHING THE WESTERN UPPER HIGH BACK WEST. THE FA IS IN THE GREY
ZONE BETWEEN THEM...SO TEMPS AROUND SEASONAL...WITH POPS A BIT BELOW
ARE THE RESULT.

MARINE...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST REGION AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH MONDAY...WHILE A
SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN GULF. A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL GENERALLY
PREVAIL OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS AND SEAS
WILL BE LOCALLY HIGHER NEAR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. STORMS WILL THEN BECOME MORE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN NATURE THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
SEAS OTHERWISE REMAIN LOW OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION. /21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      87  73  90  72  92 /  40  20  20  10  30
PENSACOLA   87  75  88  74  90 /  50  30  40  10  40
DESTIN      86  77  87  77  88 /  50  30  50  20  40
EVERGREEN   88  70  90  71  91 /  50  20  30  10  40
WAYNESBORO  87  69  92  70  92 /  30  20  10  10  30
CAMDEN      87  69  91  71  91 /  40  20  20  10  40
CRESTVIEW   89  71  89  72  92 /  50  30  40  20  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMOB 201750 AAC
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1250 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.AVIATION [20.18Z KMOB/KBFM/KPNS TAF ISSUANCE]...MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THOUGH LOCALIZED MVFR CIGS AND IFR OR LOWER
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING AS SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA BECOME MORE FOCUSED ALONG
THE COAST. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY RETURN TO THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST AT 7-12 KNOTS. /22

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1119 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014/

SHORT TERM UPDATE...THE SURFACE BOUNDARY HAS MANAGED TO PUSH
SOUTHEAST THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...AND IS
BEGINNING TO STALL FROM CRESTVIEW TO NAVARRE BEACH TO THE OFFSHORE
WATERS SOUTH OF ALABAMA. WEAK SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF A UPPER
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE MOVING OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO HAS
ALLOWED MUCH OF THE RAIN TO END ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR NOW.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE STALLED BOUNDARY BEGINS TO RETREAT
NORTHWARD AND INSTABILITY INCREASES. TEMPERATURE FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK. UPDATED GRIDS TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND WINDS...AND
BOTH THE GRIDS AND ZONE FORECAST PACKAGE UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT. /22

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 801 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014/

MARINE UPDATE...WE SENT AN AMENDED MARINE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR A
MORE NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION TO THE WIND OVER THE BAYS AND SOUNDS
THIS MORNING...AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER SPEEDS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS 20
TO 60 NM OUT. WHILE WINDS MAY BE MORE CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN FARTHER
OFFSHORE...THE HIGHER SPEEDS HAVE PERSISTED LONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT A
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION MENTION. /21

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 519 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...FOR TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...
BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE FROM THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
VALLEY TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING WHILE SURFACE ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT STRETCHES FROM FAR SOUTHEAST TEXAS...THROUGH
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA... AND INTO SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND CENTRAL
ALABAMA. A VERY MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA ON THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY THIS
MORNING. THE GOES BLENDED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT IS
ESTIMATING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 50-53 MM...OR GENERALLY
AROUND 2.0 TO 2.1 INCHES ACROSS THE CWFA EARLY THIS MORNING...AND
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA WITHIN THE DEEPLY
MOIST AIRMASS.

THE MID LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE CONUS
TODAY AS A RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES/SOUTHWESTERN
STATES AND A TROUGH DIGS FROM THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS TO THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST. THE SURFACE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MEANWHILE
SLOWLY EDGE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND INTERIOR
SOUTHWEST ALABAMA. A DRIER AIRMASS WILL FILTER INTO MUCH OF CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND WESTERN ALABAMA BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AND
AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO DEEPEN. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
WILL DECREASE TO 1.25 TO 1.5 INCHES OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL REMAIN IN THE 1.75 TO 2 INCH
RANGE NEAR COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE CWFA. THE LATEST THINKING IS THAT
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL BE LESSER OVER NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWFA TODAY WITHIN THE DRIER AIRMASS...WHILE BETTER CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ESPECIALLY ALONG AND TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR TODAY WITHIN THE FAVORED REGION OF
LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS. HIGHS TODAY WERE TRENDED A LITTLE
BELOW GUIDANCE...GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S OVER MOST
LOCATIONS.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO FURTHER DEEPEN OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. TONIGHT...AND DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT
FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST/SOUTH
CENTRAL ALABAMA...WHILE DEEPER MOISTURE /PWATS 1.7 TO 2 INCHES/ HOLD
NEAR THE COAST. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE LOWER ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT...BUT WILL MAINTAIN AT LEAST ISOLATED COVERAGE
OVER THE INTERIOR...AND SCATTERED COVERAGE NEAR THE COAST. LOWS
TONIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND 70 OVER INTERIOR AREAS TO THE LOWER
TO MID 70S NEAR THE COAST. /21

THE WET MICROBURST RISK TODAY IS MODERATE.

MONDAY...GUIDANCE IS NOT ADVERTISING THE BASE OF THE EASTERN UPPER
TROUGH BREAKING OFF AND FORMING A CLOSED LOW...CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN
AL/GA. A MORE ORGANIZED SURFACE CIRCULATION (BUT NOT CLOSED
LOW)...CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FA. WITH AN ENHANCED
CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE EASTERN THIRD TO HALF OF THE FA...HAVE PUT IN
POPS AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL...WITH TEMPS AROUND OR A BIT BELOW DUE TO
THE PRECIP/CLOUD COVERAGE. HAVE WENT ABOVE WITH TEMPS/BELOW WITH
POPS.

MONDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LOW MEANDERS WEST...BECOMING CENTERED OVER
THE FA BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE SURFACE CIRCULATION SHIFTS WEST...TO
OVER SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI. THIS SHIFTS THE AREA OF BEST POPS
WESTWARD...WITH ABOVE SEASONAL POPS ALONG THE EASTERN BOARDER TO JUST
BELOW WEST. DO SEE A MORE ORGANIZED SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER EASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE FA...THOUGH NOT VERY STRONG ATTM. THIS WILL HELP TO
LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF TRAINING CELLS AND ANY CHANCE OF FLOODING OVER
EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FA. PONDING OF WATER FROM ANY STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS IS STILL POSSIBLE. IF THE AMOUNT OF RAIN UP UNTIL THIS
POINT PROVES TO BE MORE THAN ANTICIPATED...THE CHANCE OF MORE SERIOUS
WATER PROBLEMS EXISTS. DO NOT ANTICIPATE THIS HAPPENING ATTM...BUT
FEEL IT IS WISE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS.

TUESDAY...THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS WEST A BIT MORE...WITH THE SURFACE
CIRCULATION CENTER MOVING TO OVER THE SW-ERN MS.LA AREA. THIS
INTRODUCES A MORE ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE FA...BUT AGAIN...IT REMAINS ON THE LIGHT SIDE...SO AN
ABUNDANCE OF TRAINING CELLS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BEA A PROBLEM ATTM.

LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT ON)...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS WEST...TO OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY AND
OPENS AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND EASTERN
GULF OF MEX. POPS ABOVE SEASONAL WITH TEMPS AROUND SEASONAL.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE WESTERN ATLANTIC/EASTERN GULF
UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD WESTWARD AS THE UPPER ENERGY MOVING
EAST OVER THE US/CA BORDER PUSHES THE NORTHERN END OF THE UPPER
TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN PRESENT OVER THE EASTERN CONUS EASTWARD. THE
RESULT IS THE PORTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS
GETTING TILTED TO AN WEST TO EAST POSITION OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST. THE UPPER HIGH THAT HAS BEEN PRESENT OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
BUILDS BACK EAST...OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO LOWER MISS RIVER
VALLEY. THE GFS IS ADVERTISING MORE OF AN AFFECT OF THE UPPER RIDGE
THEN THE ECMWF WITH TEMPS WELL ABOVE BEING ADVERTISED IN THE GFS AND
A BIT ABOVE IN THE ECMWF. HELPING WITH THE TEMPS IS A SURFACE RIDGE
BUILDING WEST OVER THE GULF OF MEX...PROVIDING A MORE ORGANIZED
SYNOPTIC WESTERLY FLOW. HAVE WENT BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS
WITH RESPECT TO TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL)...WITH POPS
AROUND SEASONAL.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
US/CA BORDER GETS DRAWN INTO THE EASTERN UPPER TROUGH...DEEPENING IT
AND PUSHING THE WESTERN UPPER HIGH BACK WEST. THE FA IS IN THE GREY
ZONE BETWEEN THEM...SO TEMPS AROUND SEASONAL...WITH POPS A BIT BELOW
ARE THE RESULT.

MARINE...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST REGION AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH MONDAY...WHILE A
SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN GULF. A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL GENERALLY
PREVAIL OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS AND SEAS
WILL BE LOCALLY HIGHER NEAR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. STORMS WILL THEN BECOME MORE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN NATURE THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
SEAS OTHERWISE REMAIN LOW OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION. /21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      87  73  90  72  92 /  40  20  20  10  30
PENSACOLA   87  75  88  74  90 /  50  30  40  10  40
DESTIN      86  77  87  77  88 /  50  30  50  20  40
EVERGREEN   88  70  90  71  91 /  50  20  30  10  40
WAYNESBORO  87  69  92  70  92 /  30  20  10  10  30
CAMDEN      87  69  91  71  91 /  40  20  20  10  40
CRESTVIEW   89  71  89  72  92 /  50  30  40  20  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMOB 201619 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1119 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.SHORT TERM UPDATE...THE SURFACE BOUNDARY HAS MANAGED TO PUSH
SOUTHEAST THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...AND IS
BEGINNING TO STALL FROM CRESTVIEW TO NAVARRE BEACH TO THE OFFSHORE
WATERS SOUTH OF ALABAMA. WEAK SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF A UPPER
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE MOVING OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO HAS
ALLOWED MUCH OF THE RAIN TO END ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR NOW.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE STALLED BOUNDARY BEGINS TO RETREAT
NORTHWARD AND INSTABILITY INCREASES. TEMPERATURE FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK. UPDATED GRIDS TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND WINDS...AND
BOTH THE GRIDS AND ZONE FORECAST PACKAGE UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT. /22

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 801 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014/

MARINE UPDATE...WE SENT AN AMENDED MARINE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR A
MORE NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION TO THE WIND OVER THE BAYS AND SOUNDS
THIS MORNING...AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER SPEEDS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS 20
TO 60 NM OUT. WHILE WINDS MAY BE MORE CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN FARTHER
OFFSHORE...THE HIGHER SPEEDS HAVE PERSISTED LONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT A
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION MENTION. /21

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 519 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...FOR TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...
BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE FROM THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
VALLEY TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING WHILE SURFACE ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT STRETCHES FROM FAR SOUTHEAST TEXAS...THROUGH
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA... AND INTO SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND CENTRAL
ALABAMA. A VERY MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA ON THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY THIS
MORNING. THE GOES BLENDED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT IS
ESTIMATING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 50-53 MM...OR GENERALLY
AROUND 2.0 TO 2.1 INCHES ACROSS THE CWFA EARLY THIS MORNING...AND
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA WITHIN THE DEEPLY
MOIST AIRMASS.

THE MID LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE CONUS
TODAY AS A RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES/SOUTHWESTERN
STATES AND A TROUGH DIGS FROM THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS TO THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST. THE SURFACE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MEANWHILE
SLOWLY EDGE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND INTERIOR
SOUTHWEST ALABAMA. A DRIER AIRMASS WILL FILTER INTO MUCH OF CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND WESTERN ALABAMA BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AND
AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO DEEPEN. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
WILL DECREASE TO 1.25 TO 1.5 INCHES OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL REMAIN IN THE 1.75 TO 2 INCH
RANGE NEAR COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE CWFA. THE LATEST THINKING IS THAT
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL BE LESSER OVER NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWFA TODAY WITHIN THE DRIER AIRMASS...WHILE BETTER CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ESPECIALLY ALONG AND TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR TODAY WITHIN THE FAVORED REGION OF
LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS. HIGHS TODAY WERE TRENDED A LITTLE
BELOW GUIDANCE...GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S OVER MOST
LOCATIONS.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO FURTHER DEEPEN OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. TONIGHT...AND DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT
FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST/SOUTH
CENTRAL ALABAMA...WHILE DEEPER MOISTURE /PWATS 1.7 TO 2 INCHES/ HOLD
NEAR THE COAST. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE LOWER ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT...BUT WILL MAINTAIN AT LEAST ISOLATED COVERAGE
OVER THE INTERIOR...AND SCATTERED COVERAGE NEAR THE COAST. LOWS
TONIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND 70 OVER INTERIOR AREAS TO THE LOWER
TO MID 70S NEAR THE COAST. /21

THE WET MICROBURST RISK TODAY IS MODERATE.

MONDAY...GUIDANCE IS NOT ADVERTISING THE BASE OF THE EASTERN UPPER
TROUGH BREAKING OFF AND FORMING A CLOSED LOW...CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN
AL/GA. A MORE ORGANIZED SURFACE CIRCULATION (BUT NOT CLOSED
LOW)...CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FA. WITH AN ENHANCED
CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE EASTERN THIRD TO HALF OF THE FA...HAVE PUT IN
POPS AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL...WITH TEMPS AROUND OR A BIT BELOW DUE TO
THE PRECIP/CLOUD COVERAGE. HAVE WENT ABOVE WITH TEMPS/BELOW WITH
POPS.

MONDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LOW MEANDERS WEST...BECOMING CENTERED OVER
THE FA BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE SURFACE CIRCULATION SHIFTS WEST...TO
OVER SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI. THIS SHIFTS THE AREA OF BEST POPS
WESTWARD...WITH ABOVE SEASONAL POPS ALONG THE EASTERN BOARDER TO JUST
BELOW WEST. DO SEE A MORE ORGANIZED SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER EASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE FA...THOUGH NOT VERY STRONG ATTM. THIS WILL HELP TO
LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF TRAINING CELLS AND ANY CHANCE OF FLOODING OVER
EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FA. PONDING OF WATER FROM ANY STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS IS STILL POSSIBLE. IF THE AMOUNT OF RAIN UP UNTIL THIS
POINT PROVES TO BE MORE THAN ANTICIPATED...THE CHANCE OF MORE SERIOUS
WATER PROBLEMS EXISTS. DO NOT ANTICIPATE THIS HAPPENING ATTM...BUT
FEEL IT IS WISE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS.

TUESDAY...THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS WEST A BIT MORE...WITH THE SURFACE
CIRCULATION CENTER MOVING TO OVER THE SW-ERN MS.LA AREA. THIS
INTRODUCES A MORE ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE FA...BUT AGAIN...IT REMAINS ON THE LIGHT SIDE...SO AN
ABUNDANCE OF TRAINING CELLS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BEA A PROBLEM ATTM.

LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT ON)...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS WEST...TO OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY AND
OPENS AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND EASTERN
GULF OF MEX. POPS ABOVE SEASONAL WITH TEMPS AROUND SEASONAL.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE WESTERN ATLANTIC/EASTERN GULF
UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD WESTWARD AS THE UPPER ENERGY MOVING
EAST OVER THE US/CA BORDER PUSHES THE NORTHERN END OF THE UPPER
TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN PRESENT OVER THE EASTERN CONUS EASTWARD. THE
RESULT IS THE PORTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS
GETTING TILTED TO AN WEST TO EAST POSITION OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST. THE UPPER HIGH THAT HAS BEEN PRESENT OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
BUILDS BACK EAST...OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO LOWER MISS RIVER
VALLEY. THE GFS IS ADVERTISING MORE OF AN AFFECT OF THE UPPER RIDGE
THEN THE ECMWF WITH TEMPS WELL ABOVE BEING ADVERTISED IN THE GFS AND
A BIT ABOVE IN THE ECMWF. HELPING WITH THE TEMPS IS A SURFACE RIDGE
BUILDING WEST OVER THE GULF OF MEX...PROVIDING A MORE ORGANIZED
SYNOPTIC WESTERLY FLOW. HAVE WENT BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS
WITH RESPECT TO TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL)...WITH POPS
AROUND SEASONAL.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
US/CA BORDER GETS DRAWN INTO THE EASTERN UPPER TROUGH...DEEPENING IT
AND PUSHING THE WESTERN UPPER HIGH BACK WEST. THE FA IS IN THE GREY
ZONE BETWEEN THEM...SO TEMPS AROUND SEASONAL...WITH POPS A BIT BELOW
ARE THE RESULT.

AVIATION...
[20.12Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION]...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THOUGH LOCALIZED MVFR TO IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA GENERALLY
BECOME FOCUSED OVER EASTERN AREAS TODAY. LOCALIZED MVFR CIGS AND IFR
OR LOWER VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR CONVECTION. SURFACE
WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KNOTS. /21

MARINE...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST REGION AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH MONDAY...WHILE A
SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN GULF. A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL GENERALLY
PREVAIL OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS AND SEAS
WILL BE LOCALLY HIGHER NEAR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. STORMS WILL THEN BECOME MORE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN NATURE THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
SEAS OTHERWISE REMAIN LOW OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION. /21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      87  73  90  72  92 /  40  20  20  10  30
PENSACOLA   87  75  88  74  90 /  50  30  40  10  40
DESTIN      86  77  87  77  88 /  50  30  50  20  40
EVERGREEN   88  70  90  71  91 /  50  20  30  10  40
WAYNESBORO  87  69  92  70  92 /  30  20  10  10  30
CAMDEN      87  69  91  71  91 /  40  20  20  10  40
CRESTVIEW   89  71  89  72  92 /  50  30  40  20  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMOB 201619 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1119 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.SHORT TERM UPDATE...THE SURFACE BOUNDARY HAS MANAGED TO PUSH
SOUTHEAST THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...AND IS
BEGINNING TO STALL FROM CRESTVIEW TO NAVARRE BEACH TO THE OFFSHORE
WATERS SOUTH OF ALABAMA. WEAK SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF A UPPER
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE MOVING OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO HAS
ALLOWED MUCH OF THE RAIN TO END ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR NOW.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE STALLED BOUNDARY BEGINS TO RETREAT
NORTHWARD AND INSTABILITY INCREASES. TEMPERATURE FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK. UPDATED GRIDS TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND WINDS...AND
BOTH THE GRIDS AND ZONE FORECAST PACKAGE UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT. /22

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 801 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014/

MARINE UPDATE...WE SENT AN AMENDED MARINE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR A
MORE NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION TO THE WIND OVER THE BAYS AND SOUNDS
THIS MORNING...AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER SPEEDS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS 20
TO 60 NM OUT. WHILE WINDS MAY BE MORE CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN FARTHER
OFFSHORE...THE HIGHER SPEEDS HAVE PERSISTED LONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT A
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION MENTION. /21

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 519 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...FOR TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...
BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE FROM THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
VALLEY TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING WHILE SURFACE ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT STRETCHES FROM FAR SOUTHEAST TEXAS...THROUGH
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA... AND INTO SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND CENTRAL
ALABAMA. A VERY MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA ON THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY THIS
MORNING. THE GOES BLENDED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT IS
ESTIMATING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 50-53 MM...OR GENERALLY
AROUND 2.0 TO 2.1 INCHES ACROSS THE CWFA EARLY THIS MORNING...AND
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA WITHIN THE DEEPLY
MOIST AIRMASS.

THE MID LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE CONUS
TODAY AS A RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES/SOUTHWESTERN
STATES AND A TROUGH DIGS FROM THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS TO THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST. THE SURFACE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MEANWHILE
SLOWLY EDGE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND INTERIOR
SOUTHWEST ALABAMA. A DRIER AIRMASS WILL FILTER INTO MUCH OF CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND WESTERN ALABAMA BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AND
AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO DEEPEN. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
WILL DECREASE TO 1.25 TO 1.5 INCHES OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL REMAIN IN THE 1.75 TO 2 INCH
RANGE NEAR COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE CWFA. THE LATEST THINKING IS THAT
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL BE LESSER OVER NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWFA TODAY WITHIN THE DRIER AIRMASS...WHILE BETTER CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ESPECIALLY ALONG AND TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR TODAY WITHIN THE FAVORED REGION OF
LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS. HIGHS TODAY WERE TRENDED A LITTLE
BELOW GUIDANCE...GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S OVER MOST
LOCATIONS.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO FURTHER DEEPEN OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. TONIGHT...AND DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT
FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST/SOUTH
CENTRAL ALABAMA...WHILE DEEPER MOISTURE /PWATS 1.7 TO 2 INCHES/ HOLD
NEAR THE COAST. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE LOWER ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT...BUT WILL MAINTAIN AT LEAST ISOLATED COVERAGE
OVER THE INTERIOR...AND SCATTERED COVERAGE NEAR THE COAST. LOWS
TONIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND 70 OVER INTERIOR AREAS TO THE LOWER
TO MID 70S NEAR THE COAST. /21

THE WET MICROBURST RISK TODAY IS MODERATE.

MONDAY...GUIDANCE IS NOT ADVERTISING THE BASE OF THE EASTERN UPPER
TROUGH BREAKING OFF AND FORMING A CLOSED LOW...CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN
AL/GA. A MORE ORGANIZED SURFACE CIRCULATION (BUT NOT CLOSED
LOW)...CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FA. WITH AN ENHANCED
CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE EASTERN THIRD TO HALF OF THE FA...HAVE PUT IN
POPS AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL...WITH TEMPS AROUND OR A BIT BELOW DUE TO
THE PRECIP/CLOUD COVERAGE. HAVE WENT ABOVE WITH TEMPS/BELOW WITH
POPS.

MONDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LOW MEANDERS WEST...BECOMING CENTERED OVER
THE FA BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE SURFACE CIRCULATION SHIFTS WEST...TO
OVER SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI. THIS SHIFTS THE AREA OF BEST POPS
WESTWARD...WITH ABOVE SEASONAL POPS ALONG THE EASTERN BOARDER TO JUST
BELOW WEST. DO SEE A MORE ORGANIZED SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER EASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE FA...THOUGH NOT VERY STRONG ATTM. THIS WILL HELP TO
LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF TRAINING CELLS AND ANY CHANCE OF FLOODING OVER
EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FA. PONDING OF WATER FROM ANY STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS IS STILL POSSIBLE. IF THE AMOUNT OF RAIN UP UNTIL THIS
POINT PROVES TO BE MORE THAN ANTICIPATED...THE CHANCE OF MORE SERIOUS
WATER PROBLEMS EXISTS. DO NOT ANTICIPATE THIS HAPPENING ATTM...BUT
FEEL IT IS WISE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS.

TUESDAY...THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS WEST A BIT MORE...WITH THE SURFACE
CIRCULATION CENTER MOVING TO OVER THE SW-ERN MS.LA AREA. THIS
INTRODUCES A MORE ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE FA...BUT AGAIN...IT REMAINS ON THE LIGHT SIDE...SO AN
ABUNDANCE OF TRAINING CELLS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BEA A PROBLEM ATTM.

LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT ON)...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS WEST...TO OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY AND
OPENS AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND EASTERN
GULF OF MEX. POPS ABOVE SEASONAL WITH TEMPS AROUND SEASONAL.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE WESTERN ATLANTIC/EASTERN GULF
UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD WESTWARD AS THE UPPER ENERGY MOVING
EAST OVER THE US/CA BORDER PUSHES THE NORTHERN END OF THE UPPER
TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN PRESENT OVER THE EASTERN CONUS EASTWARD. THE
RESULT IS THE PORTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS
GETTING TILTED TO AN WEST TO EAST POSITION OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST. THE UPPER HIGH THAT HAS BEEN PRESENT OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
BUILDS BACK EAST...OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO LOWER MISS RIVER
VALLEY. THE GFS IS ADVERTISING MORE OF AN AFFECT OF THE UPPER RIDGE
THEN THE ECMWF WITH TEMPS WELL ABOVE BEING ADVERTISED IN THE GFS AND
A BIT ABOVE IN THE ECMWF. HELPING WITH THE TEMPS IS A SURFACE RIDGE
BUILDING WEST OVER THE GULF OF MEX...PROVIDING A MORE ORGANIZED
SYNOPTIC WESTERLY FLOW. HAVE WENT BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS
WITH RESPECT TO TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL)...WITH POPS
AROUND SEASONAL.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
US/CA BORDER GETS DRAWN INTO THE EASTERN UPPER TROUGH...DEEPENING IT
AND PUSHING THE WESTERN UPPER HIGH BACK WEST. THE FA IS IN THE GREY
ZONE BETWEEN THEM...SO TEMPS AROUND SEASONAL...WITH POPS A BIT BELOW
ARE THE RESULT.

AVIATION...
[20.12Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION]...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THOUGH LOCALIZED MVFR TO IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA GENERALLY
BECOME FOCUSED OVER EASTERN AREAS TODAY. LOCALIZED MVFR CIGS AND IFR
OR LOWER VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR CONVECTION. SURFACE
WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KNOTS. /21

MARINE...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST REGION AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH MONDAY...WHILE A
SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN GULF. A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL GENERALLY
PREVAIL OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS AND SEAS
WILL BE LOCALLY HIGHER NEAR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. STORMS WILL THEN BECOME MORE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN NATURE THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
SEAS OTHERWISE REMAIN LOW OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION. /21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      87  73  90  72  92 /  40  20  20  10  30
PENSACOLA   87  75  88  74  90 /  50  30  40  10  40
DESTIN      86  77  87  77  88 /  50  30  50  20  40
EVERGREEN   88  70  90  71  91 /  50  20  30  10  40
WAYNESBORO  87  69  92  70  92 /  30  20  10  10  30
CAMDEN      87  69  91  71  91 /  40  20  20  10  40
CRESTVIEW   89  71  89  72  92 /  50  30  40  20  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMOB 201301 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
801 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.MARINE UPDATE...WE SENT AN AMENDED MARINE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR A
MORE NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION TO THE WIND OVER THE BAYS AND SOUNDS
THIS MORNING...AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER SPEEDS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS 20
TO 60 NM OUT. WHILE WINDS MAY BE MORE CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN FARTHER
OFFSHORE...THE HIGHER SPEEDS HAVE PERSISTED LONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT A
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION MENTION. /21

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 519 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...FOR TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...
BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE FROM THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
VALLEY TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING WHILE SURFACE ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT STRETCHES FROM FAR SOUTHEAST TEXAS...THROUGH
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA... AND INTO SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND CENTRAL
ALABAMA. A VERY MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA ON THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY THIS
MORNING. THE GOES BLENDED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT IS
ESTIMATING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 50-53 MM...OR GENERALLY
AROUND 2.0 TO 2.1 INCHES ACROSS THE CWFA EARLY THIS MORNING...AND
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA WITHIN THE DEEPLY
MOIST AIRMASS.

THE MID LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE CONUS
TODAY AS A RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES/SOUTHWESTERN
STATES AND A TROUGH DIGS FROM THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS TO THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST. THE SURFACE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MEANWHILE
SLOWLY EDGE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND INTERIOR
SOUTHWEST ALABAMA. A DRIER AIRMASS WILL FILTER INTO MUCH OF CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND WESTERN ALABAMA BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AND
AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO DEEPEN. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
WILL DECREASE TO 1.25 TO 1.5 INCHES OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL REMAIN IN THE 1.75 TO 2 INCH
RANGE NEAR COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE CWFA. THE LATEST THINKING IS THAT
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL BE LESSER OVER NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWFA TODAY WITHIN THE DRIER AIRMASS...WHILE BETTER CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ESPECIALLY ALONG AND TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR TODAY WITHIN THE FAVORED REGION OF
LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS. HIGHS TODAY WERE TRENDED A LITTLE
BELOW GUIDANCE...GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S OVER MOST
LOCATIONS.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO FURTHER DEEPEN OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. TONIGHT...AND DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT
FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST/SOUTH
CENTRAL ALABAMA...WHILE DEEPER MOISTURE /PWATS 1.7 TO 2 INCHES/ HOLD
NEAR THE COAST. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE LOWER ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT...BUT WILL MAINTAIN AT LEAST ISOLATED COVERAGE
OVER THE INTERIOR...AND SCATTERED COVERAGE NEAR THE COAST. LOWS
TONIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND 70 OVER INTERIOR AREAS TO THE LOWER
TO MID 70S NEAR THE COAST. /21

THE WET MICROBURST RISK TODAY IS MODERATE.

MONDAY...GUIDANCE IS NOT ADVERTISING THE BASE OF THE EASTERN UPPER
TROUGH BREAKING OFF AND FORMING A CLOSED LOW...CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN
AL/GA. A MORE ORGANIZED SURFACE CIRCULATION (BUT NOT CLOSED
LOW)...CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FA. WITH AN ENHANCED
CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE EASTERN THIRD TO HALF OF THE FA...HAVE PUT IN
POPS AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL...WITH TEMPS AROUND OR A BIT BELOW DUE TO
THE PRECIP/CLOUD COVERAGE. HAVE WENT ABOVE WITH TEMPS/BELOW WITH
POPS.

MONDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LOW MEANDERS WEST...BECOMING CENTERED OVER
THE FA BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE SURFACE CIRCULATION SHIFTS WEST...TO
OVER SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI. THIS SHIFTS THE AREA OF BEST POPS
WESTWARD...WITH ABOVE SEASONAL POPS ALONG THE EASTERN BOARDER TO JUST
BELOW WEST. DO SEE A MORE ORGANIZED SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER EASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE FA...THOUGH NOT VERY STRONG ATTM. THIS WILL HELP TO
LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF TRAINING CELLS AND ANY CHANCE OF FLOODING OVER
EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FA. PONDING OF WATER FROM ANY STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS IS STILL POSSIBLE. IF THE AMOUNT OF RAIN UP UNTIL THIS
POINT PROVES TO BE MORE THAN ANTICIPATED...THE CHANCE OF MORE SERIOUS
WATER PROBLEMS EXISTS. DO NOT ANTICIPATE THIS HAPPENING ATTM...BUT
FEEL IT IS WISE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS.

TUESDAY...THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS WEST A BIT MORE...WITH THE SURFACE
CIRCULATION CENTER MOVING TO OVER THE SW-ERN MS.LA AREA. THIS
INTRODUCES A MORE ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE FA...BUT AGAIN...IT REMAINS ON THE LIGHT SIDE...SO AN
ABUNDANCE OF TRAINING CELLS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BEA A PROBLEM ATTM.

LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT ON)...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS WEST...TO OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY AND
OPENS AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND EASTERN
GULF OF MEX. POPS ABOVE SEASONAL WITH TEMPS AROUND SEASONAL.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE WESTERN ATLANTIC/EASTERN GULF
UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD WESTWARD AS THE UPPER ENERGY MOVING
EAST OVER THE US/CA BORDER PUSHES THE NORTHERN END OF THE UPPER
TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN PRESENT OVER THE EASTERN CONUS EASTWARD. THE
RESULT IS THE PORTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS
GETTING TILTED TO AN WEST TO EAST POSITION OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST. THE UPPER HIGH THAT HAS BEEN PRESENT OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
BUILDS BACK EAST...OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO LOWER MISS RIVER
VALLEY. THE GFS IS ADVERTISING MORE OF AN AFFECT OF THE UPPER RIDGE
THEN THE ECMWF WITH TEMPS WELL ABOVE BEING ADVERTISED IN THE GFS AND
A BIT ABOVE IN THE ECMWF. HELPING WITH THE TEMPS IS A SURFACE RIDGE
BUILDING WEST OVER THE GULF OF MEX...PROVIDING A MORE ORGANIZED
SYNOPTIC WESTERLY FLOW. HAVE WENT BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS
WITH RESPECT TO TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL)...WITH POPS
AROUND SEASONAL.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
US/CA BORDER GETS DRAWN INTO THE EASTERN UPPER TROUGH...DEEPENING IT
AND PUSHING THE WESTERN UPPER HIGH BACK WEST. THE FA IS IN THE GREY
ZONE BETWEEN THEM...SO TEMPS AROUND SEASONAL...WITH POPS A BIT BELOW
ARE THE RESULT.

AVIATION...
[20.12Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION]...MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THOUGH LOCALIZED MVFR TO IFR CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHRA/TSRA GENERALLY BECOME FOCUSED OVER EASTERN AREAS TODAY.
LOCALIZED MVFR CIGS AND IFR OR LOWER VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE NEAR CONVECTION. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY SOUTHWEST AT
5-10 KNOTS. /21

MARINE...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST REGION AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH MONDAY...WHILE A
SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN GULF. A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL GENERALLY
PREVAIL OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS AND SEAS
WILL BE LOCALLY HIGHER NEAR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. STORMS WILL THEN BECOME MORE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN NATURE THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
SEAS OTHERWISE REMAIN LOW OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION. /21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      87  73  90  72  92 /  50  20  20  10  30
PENSACOLA   87  75  88  74  90 /  70  30  40  10  40
DESTIN      86  77  87  77  88 /  70  30  50  20  40
EVERGREEN   88  70  90  71  91 /  60  20  30  10  40
WAYNESBORO  87  69  92  70  92 /  30  20  10  10  30
CAMDEN      87  69  91  71  91 /  40  20  20  10  40
CRESTVIEW   89  71  89  72  92 /  70  30  40  20  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMOB 201301 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
801 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.MARINE UPDATE...WE SENT AN AMENDED MARINE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR A
MORE NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION TO THE WIND OVER THE BAYS AND SOUNDS
THIS MORNING...AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER SPEEDS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS 20
TO 60 NM OUT. WHILE WINDS MAY BE MORE CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN FARTHER
OFFSHORE...THE HIGHER SPEEDS HAVE PERSISTED LONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT A
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION MENTION. /21

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 519 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...FOR TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...
BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE FROM THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
VALLEY TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING WHILE SURFACE ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT STRETCHES FROM FAR SOUTHEAST TEXAS...THROUGH
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA... AND INTO SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND CENTRAL
ALABAMA. A VERY MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA ON THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY THIS
MORNING. THE GOES BLENDED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT IS
ESTIMATING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 50-53 MM...OR GENERALLY
AROUND 2.0 TO 2.1 INCHES ACROSS THE CWFA EARLY THIS MORNING...AND
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA WITHIN THE DEEPLY
MOIST AIRMASS.

THE MID LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE CONUS
TODAY AS A RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES/SOUTHWESTERN
STATES AND A TROUGH DIGS FROM THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS TO THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST. THE SURFACE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MEANWHILE
SLOWLY EDGE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND INTERIOR
SOUTHWEST ALABAMA. A DRIER AIRMASS WILL FILTER INTO MUCH OF CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND WESTERN ALABAMA BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AND
AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO DEEPEN. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
WILL DECREASE TO 1.25 TO 1.5 INCHES OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL REMAIN IN THE 1.75 TO 2 INCH
RANGE NEAR COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE CWFA. THE LATEST THINKING IS THAT
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL BE LESSER OVER NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWFA TODAY WITHIN THE DRIER AIRMASS...WHILE BETTER CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ESPECIALLY ALONG AND TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR TODAY WITHIN THE FAVORED REGION OF
LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS. HIGHS TODAY WERE TRENDED A LITTLE
BELOW GUIDANCE...GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S OVER MOST
LOCATIONS.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO FURTHER DEEPEN OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. TONIGHT...AND DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT
FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST/SOUTH
CENTRAL ALABAMA...WHILE DEEPER MOISTURE /PWATS 1.7 TO 2 INCHES/ HOLD
NEAR THE COAST. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE LOWER ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT...BUT WILL MAINTAIN AT LEAST ISOLATED COVERAGE
OVER THE INTERIOR...AND SCATTERED COVERAGE NEAR THE COAST. LOWS
TONIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND 70 OVER INTERIOR AREAS TO THE LOWER
TO MID 70S NEAR THE COAST. /21

THE WET MICROBURST RISK TODAY IS MODERATE.

MONDAY...GUIDANCE IS NOT ADVERTISING THE BASE OF THE EASTERN UPPER
TROUGH BREAKING OFF AND FORMING A CLOSED LOW...CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN
AL/GA. A MORE ORGANIZED SURFACE CIRCULATION (BUT NOT CLOSED
LOW)...CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FA. WITH AN ENHANCED
CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE EASTERN THIRD TO HALF OF THE FA...HAVE PUT IN
POPS AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL...WITH TEMPS AROUND OR A BIT BELOW DUE TO
THE PRECIP/CLOUD COVERAGE. HAVE WENT ABOVE WITH TEMPS/BELOW WITH
POPS.

MONDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LOW MEANDERS WEST...BECOMING CENTERED OVER
THE FA BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE SURFACE CIRCULATION SHIFTS WEST...TO
OVER SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI. THIS SHIFTS THE AREA OF BEST POPS
WESTWARD...WITH ABOVE SEASONAL POPS ALONG THE EASTERN BOARDER TO JUST
BELOW WEST. DO SEE A MORE ORGANIZED SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER EASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE FA...THOUGH NOT VERY STRONG ATTM. THIS WILL HELP TO
LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF TRAINING CELLS AND ANY CHANCE OF FLOODING OVER
EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FA. PONDING OF WATER FROM ANY STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS IS STILL POSSIBLE. IF THE AMOUNT OF RAIN UP UNTIL THIS
POINT PROVES TO BE MORE THAN ANTICIPATED...THE CHANCE OF MORE SERIOUS
WATER PROBLEMS EXISTS. DO NOT ANTICIPATE THIS HAPPENING ATTM...BUT
FEEL IT IS WISE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS.

TUESDAY...THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS WEST A BIT MORE...WITH THE SURFACE
CIRCULATION CENTER MOVING TO OVER THE SW-ERN MS.LA AREA. THIS
INTRODUCES A MORE ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE FA...BUT AGAIN...IT REMAINS ON THE LIGHT SIDE...SO AN
ABUNDANCE OF TRAINING CELLS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BEA A PROBLEM ATTM.

LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT ON)...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS WEST...TO OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY AND
OPENS AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND EASTERN
GULF OF MEX. POPS ABOVE SEASONAL WITH TEMPS AROUND SEASONAL.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE WESTERN ATLANTIC/EASTERN GULF
UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD WESTWARD AS THE UPPER ENERGY MOVING
EAST OVER THE US/CA BORDER PUSHES THE NORTHERN END OF THE UPPER
TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN PRESENT OVER THE EASTERN CONUS EASTWARD. THE
RESULT IS THE PORTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS
GETTING TILTED TO AN WEST TO EAST POSITION OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST. THE UPPER HIGH THAT HAS BEEN PRESENT OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
BUILDS BACK EAST...OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO LOWER MISS RIVER
VALLEY. THE GFS IS ADVERTISING MORE OF AN AFFECT OF THE UPPER RIDGE
THEN THE ECMWF WITH TEMPS WELL ABOVE BEING ADVERTISED IN THE GFS AND
A BIT ABOVE IN THE ECMWF. HELPING WITH THE TEMPS IS A SURFACE RIDGE
BUILDING WEST OVER THE GULF OF MEX...PROVIDING A MORE ORGANIZED
SYNOPTIC WESTERLY FLOW. HAVE WENT BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS
WITH RESPECT TO TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL)...WITH POPS
AROUND SEASONAL.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
US/CA BORDER GETS DRAWN INTO THE EASTERN UPPER TROUGH...DEEPENING IT
AND PUSHING THE WESTERN UPPER HIGH BACK WEST. THE FA IS IN THE GREY
ZONE BETWEEN THEM...SO TEMPS AROUND SEASONAL...WITH POPS A BIT BELOW
ARE THE RESULT.

AVIATION...
[20.12Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION]...MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THOUGH LOCALIZED MVFR TO IFR CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHRA/TSRA GENERALLY BECOME FOCUSED OVER EASTERN AREAS TODAY.
LOCALIZED MVFR CIGS AND IFR OR LOWER VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE NEAR CONVECTION. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY SOUTHWEST AT
5-10 KNOTS. /21

MARINE...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST REGION AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH MONDAY...WHILE A
SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN GULF. A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL GENERALLY
PREVAIL OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS AND SEAS
WILL BE LOCALLY HIGHER NEAR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. STORMS WILL THEN BECOME MORE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN NATURE THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
SEAS OTHERWISE REMAIN LOW OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION. /21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      87  73  90  72  92 /  50  20  20  10  30
PENSACOLA   87  75  88  74  90 /  70  30  40  10  40
DESTIN      86  77  87  77  88 /  70  30  50  20  40
EVERGREEN   88  70  90  71  91 /  60  20  30  10  40
WAYNESBORO  87  69  92  70  92 /  30  20  10  10  30
CAMDEN      87  69  91  71  91 /  40  20  20  10  40
CRESTVIEW   89  71  89  72  92 /  70  30  40  20  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KMOB 201035 CCA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
519 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...FOR TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...
BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE FROM THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
VALLEY TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING WHILE SURFACE ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT STRETCHES FROM FAR SOUTHEAST TEXAS...THROUGH
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA... AND INTO SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND CENTRAL
ALABAMA. A VERY MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA ON THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY THIS
MORNING. THE GOES BLENDED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT IS
ESTIMATING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 50-53 MM...OR GENERALLY
AROUND 2.0 TO 2.1 INCHES ACROSS THE CWFA EARLY THIS MORNING...AND
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA WITHIN THE DEEPLY
MOIST AIRMASS.

THE MID LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE CONUS
TODAY AS A RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES/SOUTHWESTERN
STATES AND A TROUGH DIGS FROM THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS TO THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST. THE SURFACE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MEANWHILE
SLOWLY EDGE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND INTERIOR
SOUTHWEST ALABAMA. A DRIER AIRMASS WILL FILTER INTO MUCH OF CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND WESTERN ALABAMA BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AND
AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO DEEPEN. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
WILL DECREASE TO 1.25 TO 1.5 INCHES OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL REMAIN IN THE 1.75 TO 2 INCH
RANGE NEAR COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE CWFA. THE LATEST THINKING IS THAT
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL BE LESSER OVER NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWFA TODAY WITHIN THE DRIER AIRMASS...WHILE BETTER CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ESPECIALLY ALONG AND TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR TODAY WITHIN THE FAVORED REGION OF
LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS. HIGHS TODAY WERE TRENDED A LITTLE
BELOW GUIDANCE...GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S OVER MOST
LOCATIONS.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO FURTHER DEEPEN OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. TONIGHT...AND DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT
FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST/SOUTH
CENTRAL ALABAMA...WHILE DEEPER MOISTURE /PWATS 1.7 TO 2 INCHES/ HOLD
NEAR THE COAST. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE LOWER ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT...BUT WILL MAINTAIN AT LEAST ISOLATED COVERAGE
OVER THE INTERIOR...AND SCATTERED COVERAGE NEAR THE COAST. LOWS
TONIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND 70 OVER INTERIOR AREAS TO THE LOWER
TO MID 70S NEAR THE COAST. /21

THE WET MICROBURST RISK TODAY IS MODERATE.

MONDAY...GUIDANCE IS NOT ADVERTISING THE BASE OF THE EASTERN UPPER
TROUGH BREAKING OFF AND FORMING A CLOSED LOW...CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN
AL/GA. A MORE ORGANIZED SURFACE CIRCULATION (BUT NOT CLOSED
LOW)...CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FA. WITH AN ENHANCED
CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE EASTERN THIRD TO HALF OF THE FA...HAVE PUT IN
POPS AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL...WITH TEMPS AROUND OR A BIT BELOW DUE TO
THE PRECIP/CLOUD COVERAGE. HAVE WENT ABOVE WITH TEMPS/BELOW WITH
POPS.

MONDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LOW MEANDERS WEST...BECOMING CENTERED OVER
THE FA BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE SURFACE CIRCULATION SHIFTS WEST...TO
OVER SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI. THIS SHIFTS THE AREA OF BEST POPS
WESTWARD...WITH ABOVE SEASONAL POPS ALONG THE EASTERN BOARDER TO JUST
BELOW WEST. DO SEE A MORE ORGANIZED SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER EASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE FA...THOUGH NOT VERY STRONG ATTM. THIS WILL HELP TO
LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF TRAINING CELLS AND ANY CHANCE OF FLOODING OVER
EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FA. PONDING OF WATER FROM ANY STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS IS STILL POSSIBLE. IF THE AMOUNT OF RAIN UP UNTIL THIS
POINT PROVES TO BE MORE THAN ANTICIPATED...THE CHANCE OF MORE SERIOUS
WATER PROBLEMS EXISTS. DO NOT ANTICIPATE THIS HAPPENING ATTM...BUT
FEEL IT IS WISE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS.

TUESDAY...THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS WEST A BIT MORE...WITH THE SURFACE
CIRCULATION CENTER MOVING TO OVER THE SW-ERN MS.LA AREA. THIS
INTRODUCES A MORE ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE FA...BUT AGAIN...IT REMAINS ON THE LIGHT SIDE...SO AN
ABUNDANCE OF TRAINING CELLS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BEA A PROBLEM ATTM.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT ON)...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS WEST...TO OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY AND
OPENS AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND EASTERN
GULF OF MEX. POPS ABOVE SEASONAL WITH TEMPS AROUND SEASONAL.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE WESTERN ATLANTIC/EASTERN GULF
UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD WESTWARD AS THE UPPER ENERGY MOVING
EAST OVER THE US/CA BORDER PUSHES THE NORTHERN END OF THE UPPER
TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN PRESENT OVER THE EASTERN CONUS EASTWARD. THE
RESULT IS THE PORTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS
GETTING TILTED TO AN WEST TO EAST POSITION OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST. THE UPPER HIGH THAT HAS BEEN PRESENT OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
BUILDS BACK EAST...OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO LOWER MISS RIVER
VALLEY. THE GFS IS ADVERTISING MORE OF AN AFFECT OF THE UPPER RIDGE
THEN THE ECMWF WITH TEMPS WELL ABOVE BEING ADVERTISED IN THE GFS AND
A BIT ABOVE IN THE ECMWF. HELPING WITH THE TEMPS IS A SURFACE RIDGE
BUILDING WEST OVER THE GULF OF MEX...PROVIDING A MORE ORGANIZED
SYNOPTIC WESTERLY FLOW. HAVE WENT BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS
WITH RESPECT TO TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL)...WITH POPS
AROUND SEASONAL.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
US/CA BORDER GETS DRAWN INTO THE EASTERN UPPER TROUGH...DEEPENING IT
AND PUSHING THE WESTERN UPPER HIGH BACK WEST. THE FA IS IN THE GREY
ZONE BETWEEN THEM...SO TEMPS AROUND SEASONAL...WITH POPS A BIT BELOW
ARE THE RESULT.

&&

.AVIATION...
[20.12Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION]...MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THOUGH LOCALIZED MVFR TO IFR CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHRA/TSRA GENERALLY BECOME FOCUSED OVER EASTERN AREAS TODAY.
LOCALIZED MVFR CIGS AND IFR OR LOWER VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE NEAR CONVECTION. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY SOUTHWEST AT
5-10 KNOTS. /21

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST REGION AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH MONDAY...WHILE A
SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN GULF. A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL GENERALLY
PREVAIL OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS AND SEAS
WILL BE LOCALLY HIGHER NEAR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. STORMS WILL THEN BECOME MORE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN NATURE THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
SEAS OTHERWISE REMAIN LOW OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION. /21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      87  73  90  72  92 /  50  20  20  10  30
PENSACOLA   87  75  88  74  90 /  70  30  40  10  40
DESTIN      86  77  87  77  88 /  70  30  50  20  40
EVERGREEN   88  70  90  71  91 /  60  20  30  10  40
WAYNESBORO  87  69  92  70  92 /  30  20  10  10  30
CAMDEN      87  69  91  71  91 /  40  20  20  10  40
CRESTVIEW   89  71  89  72  92 /  70  30  40  20  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$













000
FXUS64 KMOB 201035 CCA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
519 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...FOR TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...
BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE FROM THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
VALLEY TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING WHILE SURFACE ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT STRETCHES FROM FAR SOUTHEAST TEXAS...THROUGH
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA... AND INTO SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND CENTRAL
ALABAMA. A VERY MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA ON THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY THIS
MORNING. THE GOES BLENDED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT IS
ESTIMATING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 50-53 MM...OR GENERALLY
AROUND 2.0 TO 2.1 INCHES ACROSS THE CWFA EARLY THIS MORNING...AND
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA WITHIN THE DEEPLY
MOIST AIRMASS.

THE MID LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE CONUS
TODAY AS A RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES/SOUTHWESTERN
STATES AND A TROUGH DIGS FROM THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS TO THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST. THE SURFACE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MEANWHILE
SLOWLY EDGE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND INTERIOR
SOUTHWEST ALABAMA. A DRIER AIRMASS WILL FILTER INTO MUCH OF CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND WESTERN ALABAMA BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AND
AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO DEEPEN. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
WILL DECREASE TO 1.25 TO 1.5 INCHES OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL REMAIN IN THE 1.75 TO 2 INCH
RANGE NEAR COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE CWFA. THE LATEST THINKING IS THAT
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL BE LESSER OVER NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWFA TODAY WITHIN THE DRIER AIRMASS...WHILE BETTER CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ESPECIALLY ALONG AND TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR TODAY WITHIN THE FAVORED REGION OF
LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS. HIGHS TODAY WERE TRENDED A LITTLE
BELOW GUIDANCE...GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S OVER MOST
LOCATIONS.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO FURTHER DEEPEN OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. TONIGHT...AND DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT
FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST/SOUTH
CENTRAL ALABAMA...WHILE DEEPER MOISTURE /PWATS 1.7 TO 2 INCHES/ HOLD
NEAR THE COAST. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE LOWER ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT...BUT WILL MAINTAIN AT LEAST ISOLATED COVERAGE
OVER THE INTERIOR...AND SCATTERED COVERAGE NEAR THE COAST. LOWS
TONIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND 70 OVER INTERIOR AREAS TO THE LOWER
TO MID 70S NEAR THE COAST. /21

THE WET MICROBURST RISK TODAY IS MODERATE.

MONDAY...GUIDANCE IS NOT ADVERTISING THE BASE OF THE EASTERN UPPER
TROUGH BREAKING OFF AND FORMING A CLOSED LOW...CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN
AL/GA. A MORE ORGANIZED SURFACE CIRCULATION (BUT NOT CLOSED
LOW)...CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FA. WITH AN ENHANCED
CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE EASTERN THIRD TO HALF OF THE FA...HAVE PUT IN
POPS AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL...WITH TEMPS AROUND OR A BIT BELOW DUE TO
THE PRECIP/CLOUD COVERAGE. HAVE WENT ABOVE WITH TEMPS/BELOW WITH
POPS.

MONDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LOW MEANDERS WEST...BECOMING CENTERED OVER
THE FA BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE SURFACE CIRCULATION SHIFTS WEST...TO
OVER SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI. THIS SHIFTS THE AREA OF BEST POPS
WESTWARD...WITH ABOVE SEASONAL POPS ALONG THE EASTERN BOARDER TO JUST
BELOW WEST. DO SEE A MORE ORGANIZED SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER EASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE FA...THOUGH NOT VERY STRONG ATTM. THIS WILL HELP TO
LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF TRAINING CELLS AND ANY CHANCE OF FLOODING OVER
EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FA. PONDING OF WATER FROM ANY STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS IS STILL POSSIBLE. IF THE AMOUNT OF RAIN UP UNTIL THIS
POINT PROVES TO BE MORE THAN ANTICIPATED...THE CHANCE OF MORE SERIOUS
WATER PROBLEMS EXISTS. DO NOT ANTICIPATE THIS HAPPENING ATTM...BUT
FEEL IT IS WISE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS.

TUESDAY...THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS WEST A BIT MORE...WITH THE SURFACE
CIRCULATION CENTER MOVING TO OVER THE SW-ERN MS.LA AREA. THIS
INTRODUCES A MORE ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE FA...BUT AGAIN...IT REMAINS ON THE LIGHT SIDE...SO AN
ABUNDANCE OF TRAINING CELLS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BEA A PROBLEM ATTM.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT ON)...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS WEST...TO OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY AND
OPENS AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND EASTERN
GULF OF MEX. POPS ABOVE SEASONAL WITH TEMPS AROUND SEASONAL.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE WESTERN ATLANTIC/EASTERN GULF
UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD WESTWARD AS THE UPPER ENERGY MOVING
EAST OVER THE US/CA BORDER PUSHES THE NORTHERN END OF THE UPPER
TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN PRESENT OVER THE EASTERN CONUS EASTWARD. THE
RESULT IS THE PORTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS
GETTING TILTED TO AN WEST TO EAST POSITION OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST. THE UPPER HIGH THAT HAS BEEN PRESENT OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
BUILDS BACK EAST...OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO LOWER MISS RIVER
VALLEY. THE GFS IS ADVERTISING MORE OF AN AFFECT OF THE UPPER RIDGE
THEN THE ECMWF WITH TEMPS WELL ABOVE BEING ADVERTISED IN THE GFS AND
A BIT ABOVE IN THE ECMWF. HELPING WITH THE TEMPS IS A SURFACE RIDGE
BUILDING WEST OVER THE GULF OF MEX...PROVIDING A MORE ORGANIZED
SYNOPTIC WESTERLY FLOW. HAVE WENT BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS
WITH RESPECT TO TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL)...WITH POPS
AROUND SEASONAL.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
US/CA BORDER GETS DRAWN INTO THE EASTERN UPPER TROUGH...DEEPENING IT
AND PUSHING THE WESTERN UPPER HIGH BACK WEST. THE FA IS IN THE GREY
ZONE BETWEEN THEM...SO TEMPS AROUND SEASONAL...WITH POPS A BIT BELOW
ARE THE RESULT.

&&

.AVIATION...
[20.12Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION]...MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THOUGH LOCALIZED MVFR TO IFR CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHRA/TSRA GENERALLY BECOME FOCUSED OVER EASTERN AREAS TODAY.
LOCALIZED MVFR CIGS AND IFR OR LOWER VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE NEAR CONVECTION. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY SOUTHWEST AT
5-10 KNOTS. /21

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST REGION AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH MONDAY...WHILE A
SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN GULF. A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL GENERALLY
PREVAIL OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS AND SEAS
WILL BE LOCALLY HIGHER NEAR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. STORMS WILL THEN BECOME MORE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN NATURE THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
SEAS OTHERWISE REMAIN LOW OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION. /21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      87  73  90  72  92 /  50  20  20  10  30
PENSACOLA   87  75  88  74  90 /  70  30  40  10  40
DESTIN      86  77  87  77  88 /  70  30  50  20  40
EVERGREEN   88  70  90  71  91 /  60  20  30  10  40
WAYNESBORO  87  69  92  70  92 /  30  20  10  10  30
CAMDEN      87  69  91  71  91 /  40  20  20  10  40
CRESTVIEW   89  71  89  72  92 /  70  30  40  20  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$












000
FXUS64 KMOB 201019
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
519 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...FOR TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...
BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE FROM THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
VALLEY TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING WHILE SURFACE ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT STRETCHES FROM FAR SOUTHEAST TEXAS...THROUGH
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA... AND INTO SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND CENTRAL
ALABAMA. A VERY MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA ON THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY THIS
MORNING. THE GOES BLENDED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT IS
ESTIMATING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 50-53 MM...OR GENERALLY
AROUND 2.0 TO 2.1 INCHES ACROSS THE CWFA EARLY THIS MORNING...AND
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA WITHIN THE DEEPLY
MOIST AIRMASS.

THE MID LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE CONUS
TODAY AS A RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES/SOUTHWESTERN
STATES AND A TROUGH DIGS FROM THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS TO THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST. THE SURFACE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MEANWHILE
SLOWLY EDGE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND INTERIOR
SOUTHWEST ALABAMA. A DRIER AIRMASS WILL FILTER INTO MUCH OF CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND WESTERN ALABAMA BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AND
AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO DEEPEN. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
WILL DECREASE TO 1.25 TO 1.5 INCHES OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL REMAIN IN THE 1.75 TO 2 INCH
RANGE NEAR COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE CWFA. THE LATEST THINKING IS THAT
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL BE LESSER OVER NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWFA TODAY WITHIN THE DRIER AIRMASS...WHILE BETTER CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ESPECIALLY ALONG AND TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR TODAY WITHIN THE FAVORED REGION OF
LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS. HIGHS TODAY WERE TRENDED A LITTLE
BELOW GUIDANCE...GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S OVER MOST
LOCATIONS.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO FURTHER DEEPEN OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. TONIGHT...AND DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT
FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST/SOUTH
CENTRAL ALABAMA...WHILE DEEPER MOISTURE /PWATS 1.7 TO 2 INCHES/ HOLD
NEAR THE COAST. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE LOWER ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT...BUT WILL MAINTAIN AT LEAST ISOLATED COVERAGE
OVER THE INTERIOR...AND SCATTERED COVERAGE NEAR THE COAST. LOWS
TONIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND 70 OVER INTERIOR AREAS TO THE LOWER
TO MID 70S NEAR THE COAST. /21

MONDAY...GUIDANCE IS NOT ADVERTISING THE BASE OF THE EASTERN UPPER
TROUGH BREAKING OFF AND FORMING A CLOSED LOW...CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN
AL/GA. A MORE ORGANIZED SURFACE CIRCULATION (BUT NOT CLOSED
LOW)...CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FA. WITH AN ENHANCED
CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE EASTERN THIRD TO HALF OF THE FA...HAVE PUT IN
POPS AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL...WITH TEMPS AROUND OR A BIT BELOW DUE TO
THE PRECIP/CLOUD COVERAGE. HAVE WENT ABOVE WITH TEMPS/BELOW WITH
POPS.

MONDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LOW MEANDERS WEST...BECOMING CENTERED OVER
THE FA BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE SURFACE CIRCULATION SHIFTS WEST...TO
OVER SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI. THIS SHIFTS THE AREA OF BEST POPS
WESTWARD...WITH ABOVE SEASONAL POPS ALONG THE EASTERN BOARDER TO JUST
BELOW WEST. DO SEE A MORE ORGANIZED SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER EASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE FA...THOUGH NOT VERY STRONG ATTM. THIS WILL HELP TO
LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF TRAINING CELLS AND ANY CHANCE OF FLOODING OVER
EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FA. PONDING OF WATER FROM ANY STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS IS STILL POSSIBLE. IF THE AMOUNT OF RAIN UP UNTIL THIS
POINT PROVES TO BE MORE THAN ANTICIPATED...THE CHANCE OF MORE SERIOUS
WATER PROBLEMS EXISTS. DO NOT ANTICIPATE THIS HAPPENING ATTM...BUT
FEEL IT IS WISE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS.

TUESDAY...THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS WEST A BIT MORE...WITH THE SURFACE
CIRCULATION CENTER MOVING TO OVER THE SW-ERN MS.LA AREA. THIS
INTRODUCES A MORE ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE FA...BUT AGAIN...IT REMAINS ON THE LIGHT SIDE...SO AN
ABUNDANCE OF TRAINING CELLS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BEA A PROBLEM ATTM.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT ON)...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS WEST...TO OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY AND
OPENS AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND EASTERN
GULF OF MEX. POPS ABOVE SEASONAL WITH TEMPS AROUND SEASONAL.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE WESTERN ATLANTIC/EASTERN GULF
UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD WESTWARD AS THE UPPER ENERGY MOVING
EAST OVER THE US/CA BORDER PUSHES THE NORTHERN END OF THE UPPER
TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN PRESENT OVER THE EASTERN CONUS EASTWARD. THE
RESULT IS THE PORTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS
GETTING TILTED TO AN WEST TO EAST POSITION OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST. THE UPPER HIGH THAT HAS BEEN PRESENT OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
BUILDS BACK EAST...OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO LOWER MISS RIVER
VALLEY. THE GFS IS ADVERTISING MORE OF AN AFFECT OF THE UPPER RIDGE
THEN THE ECMWF WITH TEMPS WELL ABOVE BEING ADVERTISED IN THE GFS AND
A BIT ABOVE IN THE ECMWF. HELPING WITHT HE TEMPS IS A SURFACE RIDGE
BUILDING WEST OVER THE GULF OF MEX...PROVIDING A MORE ORGANIZED
SYNOPTIC WESTERLY FLOW. HAVE WENT BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS
WITH RESPECT TO TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL)...WITH POPS
AROUND SEASONAL.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
US/CA BORDER GETS DRAWN INTO THE EASTERN UPPER TROUGH...DEEPENING IT
AND PUSHING THE WESTERN UPPER HIGH BACK WEST. THE FA IS IN THE GREY
ZONE BETWEEN THEM...SO TEMPS AROUND SEASONAL...WITH POPS A BIT BELOW
ARE THE RESULT.

&&

.AVIATION...
[20.12Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION]...MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THOUGH LOCALIZED MVFR TO IFR CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHRA/TSRA GENERALLY BECOME FOCUSED OVER EASTERN AREAS TODAY.
LOCALIZED MVFR CIGS AND IFR OR LOWER VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE NEAR CONVECTION. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY SOUTHWEST AT
5-10 KNOTS. /21

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST REGION AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH MONDAY...WHILE A
SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN GULF. A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL GENERALLY
PREVAIL OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS AND SEAS
WILL BE LOCALLY HIGHER NEAR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. STORMS WILL THEN BECOME MORE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN NATURE THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
SEAS OTHERWISE REMAIN LOW OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION. /21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      87  73  90  72  92 /  50  20  20  10  30
PENSACOLA   87  75  88  74  90 /  70  30  40  10  40
DESTIN      86  77  87  77  88 /  70  30  50  20  40
EVERGREEN   88  70  90  71  91 /  60  20  30  10  40
WAYNESBORO  87  69  92  70  92 /  30  20  10  10  30
CAMDEN      87  69  91  71  91 /  40  20  20  10  40
CRESTVIEW   89  71  89  72  92 /  70  30  40  20  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KMOB 201019
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
519 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...FOR TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...
BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE FROM THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
VALLEY TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING WHILE SURFACE ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT STRETCHES FROM FAR SOUTHEAST TEXAS...THROUGH
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA... AND INTO SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND CENTRAL
ALABAMA. A VERY MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA ON THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY THIS
MORNING. THE GOES BLENDED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT IS
ESTIMATING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 50-53 MM...OR GENERALLY
AROUND 2.0 TO 2.1 INCHES ACROSS THE CWFA EARLY THIS MORNING...AND
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA WITHIN THE DEEPLY
MOIST AIRMASS.

THE MID LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE CONUS
TODAY AS A RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES/SOUTHWESTERN
STATES AND A TROUGH DIGS FROM THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS TO THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST. THE SURFACE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MEANWHILE
SLOWLY EDGE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND INTERIOR
SOUTHWEST ALABAMA. A DRIER AIRMASS WILL FILTER INTO MUCH OF CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND WESTERN ALABAMA BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AND
AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO DEEPEN. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
WILL DECREASE TO 1.25 TO 1.5 INCHES OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL REMAIN IN THE 1.75 TO 2 INCH
RANGE NEAR COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE CWFA. THE LATEST THINKING IS THAT
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL BE LESSER OVER NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWFA TODAY WITHIN THE DRIER AIRMASS...WHILE BETTER CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ESPECIALLY ALONG AND TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR TODAY WITHIN THE FAVORED REGION OF
LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS. HIGHS TODAY WERE TRENDED A LITTLE
BELOW GUIDANCE...GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S OVER MOST
LOCATIONS.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO FURTHER DEEPEN OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. TONIGHT...AND DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT
FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST/SOUTH
CENTRAL ALABAMA...WHILE DEEPER MOISTURE /PWATS 1.7 TO 2 INCHES/ HOLD
NEAR THE COAST. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE LOWER ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT...BUT WILL MAINTAIN AT LEAST ISOLATED COVERAGE
OVER THE INTERIOR...AND SCATTERED COVERAGE NEAR THE COAST. LOWS
TONIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND 70 OVER INTERIOR AREAS TO THE LOWER
TO MID 70S NEAR THE COAST. /21

MONDAY...GUIDANCE IS NOT ADVERTISING THE BASE OF THE EASTERN UPPER
TROUGH BREAKING OFF AND FORMING A CLOSED LOW...CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN
AL/GA. A MORE ORGANIZED SURFACE CIRCULATION (BUT NOT CLOSED
LOW)...CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FA. WITH AN ENHANCED
CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE EASTERN THIRD TO HALF OF THE FA...HAVE PUT IN
POPS AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL...WITH TEMPS AROUND OR A BIT BELOW DUE TO
THE PRECIP/CLOUD COVERAGE. HAVE WENT ABOVE WITH TEMPS/BELOW WITH
POPS.

MONDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LOW MEANDERS WEST...BECOMING CENTERED OVER
THE FA BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE SURFACE CIRCULATION SHIFTS WEST...TO
OVER SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI. THIS SHIFTS THE AREA OF BEST POPS
WESTWARD...WITH ABOVE SEASONAL POPS ALONG THE EASTERN BOARDER TO JUST
BELOW WEST. DO SEE A MORE ORGANIZED SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER EASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE FA...THOUGH NOT VERY STRONG ATTM. THIS WILL HELP TO
LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF TRAINING CELLS AND ANY CHANCE OF FLOODING OVER
EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FA. PONDING OF WATER FROM ANY STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS IS STILL POSSIBLE. IF THE AMOUNT OF RAIN UP UNTIL THIS
POINT PROVES TO BE MORE THAN ANTICIPATED...THE CHANCE OF MORE SERIOUS
WATER PROBLEMS EXISTS. DO NOT ANTICIPATE THIS HAPPENING ATTM...BUT
FEEL IT IS WISE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS.

TUESDAY...THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS WEST A BIT MORE...WITH THE SURFACE
CIRCULATION CENTER MOVING TO OVER THE SW-ERN MS.LA AREA. THIS
INTRODUCES A MORE ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE FA...BUT AGAIN...IT REMAINS ON THE LIGHT SIDE...SO AN
ABUNDANCE OF TRAINING CELLS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BEA A PROBLEM ATTM.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT ON)...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS WEST...TO OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY AND
OPENS AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND EASTERN
GULF OF MEX. POPS ABOVE SEASONAL WITH TEMPS AROUND SEASONAL.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE WESTERN ATLANTIC/EASTERN GULF
UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD WESTWARD AS THE UPPER ENERGY MOVING
EAST OVER THE US/CA BORDER PUSHES THE NORTHERN END OF THE UPPER
TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN PRESENT OVER THE EASTERN CONUS EASTWARD. THE
RESULT IS THE PORTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS
GETTING TILTED TO AN WEST TO EAST POSITION OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST. THE UPPER HIGH THAT HAS BEEN PRESENT OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
BUILDS BACK EAST...OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO LOWER MISS RIVER
VALLEY. THE GFS IS ADVERTISING MORE OF AN AFFECT OF THE UPPER RIDGE
THEN THE ECMWF WITH TEMPS WELL ABOVE BEING ADVERTISED IN THE GFS AND
A BIT ABOVE IN THE ECMWF. HELPING WITHT HE TEMPS IS A SURFACE RIDGE
BUILDING WEST OVER THE GULF OF MEX...PROVIDING A MORE ORGANIZED
SYNOPTIC WESTERLY FLOW. HAVE WENT BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS
WITH RESPECT TO TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL)...WITH POPS
AROUND SEASONAL.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
US/CA BORDER GETS DRAWN INTO THE EASTERN UPPER TROUGH...DEEPENING IT
AND PUSHING THE WESTERN UPPER HIGH BACK WEST. THE FA IS IN THE GREY
ZONE BETWEEN THEM...SO TEMPS AROUND SEASONAL...WITH POPS A BIT BELOW
ARE THE RESULT.

&&

.AVIATION...
[20.12Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION]...MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THOUGH LOCALIZED MVFR TO IFR CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHRA/TSRA GENERALLY BECOME FOCUSED OVER EASTERN AREAS TODAY.
LOCALIZED MVFR CIGS AND IFR OR LOWER VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE NEAR CONVECTION. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY SOUTHWEST AT
5-10 KNOTS. /21

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST REGION AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH MONDAY...WHILE A
SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN GULF. A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL GENERALLY
PREVAIL OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS AND SEAS
WILL BE LOCALLY HIGHER NEAR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. STORMS WILL THEN BECOME MORE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN NATURE THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
SEAS OTHERWISE REMAIN LOW OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION. /21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      87  73  90  72  92 /  50  20  20  10  30
PENSACOLA   87  75  88  74  90 /  70  30  40  10  40
DESTIN      86  77  87  77  88 /  70  30  50  20  40
EVERGREEN   88  70  90  71  91 /  60  20  30  10  40
WAYNESBORO  87  69  92  70  92 /  30  20  10  10  30
CAMDEN      87  69  91  71  91 /  40  20  20  10  40
CRESTVIEW   89  71  89  72  92 /  70  30  40  20  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMOB 200438 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1137 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

.AVIATION...[20.00Z-20.06Z ISSUANCES]...MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH 21.06Z. MVFR CONDITIONS MOSTLY IN AND AROUND SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO REFORM OVERNIGHT NEAR THE COAST
INCLUDING ALL TERMINAL SITES...CONTINUING THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY THEN
GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST AND NORTH OF ALL TERMINAL SITES BY LATE SUN
AFTERNOON AND SUN EVENING. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
AT 4 TO 7 KTS THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN AND AROUND
THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING MOSTLY DURING OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS ON
SUN. 32/EE

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 350 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014/

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SUNDAY)...A MOIST LOW TO MID LEVEL
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
BETWEEN A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI REGION
AND A SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF. THE BASE OF A LARGE
EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH WILL RESIDE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL...WITH A SERIES OF WEAK EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE/IMPULSES MOVING EASTWARD OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE FIRST
UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST LATE
THIS EVENING...ALLOWING A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY TO ENTER INTO
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND INTERIOR SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE LOW AND MID LEVEL FORCING AFTER
MIDNIGHT...EXPECTED ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE SECOND UPPER
DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
SUNDAY...KEEPING THE SURFACE BOUNDARY STALLED ALONG THE I-65
CORRIDOR THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUNDAY. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
MORNING...WITH NUMEROUS COVERAGE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF. A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN COVERAGE IS THEN EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 69 TO 74 DEGREES MOST LOCATIONS...WITH
MID TO UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL
REACH NEAR 90 DEGREES...WITH MID/UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST. /22


.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...RAIN CHANCES DECREASE SOME ON
MONDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST AND PUSHES THE BEST MOISTURE
TO OUR EAST. SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ALSO WORKS IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER...THE GLOBAL MODELS NOW AGREE ON
THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMING CUTOFF INTO AN UPPER LOW AS
UPPER RIDGES BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND ACROSS THE
WESTERN STATES. THE UPPER LOW THEN SLOWLY RETROGRADES WESTWARD
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP AT LEAST ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW 90S. LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WITH UPPER
70S ALONG THE COAST. /13

&&

.AVIATION [19.18Z KMOB/KBFM/KPNS TAF ISSUANCE]...WIDESPREAD SHRA
WILL IMPACT THE LOCAL TERMINALS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...WITH MVFR
VISIBILITIES (~3SM) AND MVFR CEILINGS (~1500 FEET) POSSIBLE. HEAVIER
THUNDERSTORM CELLS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
CAPABLE OF REDUCING VISIBILITY TO LIFR LEVELS (~1/2SM) AND MVFR
CEILINGS (~1500 FEET). MAINLY VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST...WITH VCTS IN THE FORECAST. FURTHER
UPDATES MAY BE NEEDED TO ADDRESS ADDITIONAL HEAVIER RAIN EXPECTED
AFTER 20.06Z. PREVAILING WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 7-12
KNOTS. A FEW HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR CONVECTION. /22

&&

.MARINE...A LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH
OF THE WEEKEND BETWEEN A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI REGION AND A SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF. THE
TROUGH WILL EXPAND EASTWARD LATE IN THE WEEKEND...ALLOWING WINDS TO
SHIFT TO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
THE WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE TROUGH RETREATS BACK WEST. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO FORM AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH THROUGH
SUNDAY THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. /22

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      74  90  73  93  72 /  60  50  30  20  10
PENSACOLA   75  89  77  91  76 /  70  60  30  30  20
DESTIN      77  88  79  87  78 /  70  60  30  30  30
EVERGREEN   71  91  69  94  70 /  60  60  20  20  20
WAYNESBORO  69  90  69  93  69 /  50  40  20  10  10
CAMDEN      70  90  70  93  70 /  60  50  20  20  20
CRESTVIEW   73  90  71  94  72 /  60  60  20  30  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


















000
FXUS64 KMOB 200438 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1137 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

.AVIATION...[20.00Z-20.06Z ISSUANCES]...MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH 21.06Z. MVFR CONDITIONS MOSTLY IN AND AROUND SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO REFORM OVERNIGHT NEAR THE COAST
INCLUDING ALL TERMINAL SITES...CONTINUING THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY THEN
GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST AND NORTH OF ALL TERMINAL SITES BY LATE SUN
AFTERNOON AND SUN EVENING. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
AT 4 TO 7 KTS THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN AND AROUND
THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING MOSTLY DURING OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS ON
SUN. 32/EE

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 350 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014/

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SUNDAY)...A MOIST LOW TO MID LEVEL
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
BETWEEN A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI REGION
AND A SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF. THE BASE OF A LARGE
EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH WILL RESIDE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL...WITH A SERIES OF WEAK EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE/IMPULSES MOVING EASTWARD OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE FIRST
UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST LATE
THIS EVENING...ALLOWING A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY TO ENTER INTO
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND INTERIOR SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE LOW AND MID LEVEL FORCING AFTER
MIDNIGHT...EXPECTED ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE SECOND UPPER
DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
SUNDAY...KEEPING THE SURFACE BOUNDARY STALLED ALONG THE I-65
CORRIDOR THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUNDAY. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
MORNING...WITH NUMEROUS COVERAGE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF. A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN COVERAGE IS THEN EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 69 TO 74 DEGREES MOST LOCATIONS...WITH
MID TO UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL
REACH NEAR 90 DEGREES...WITH MID/UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST. /22


.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...RAIN CHANCES DECREASE SOME ON
MONDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST AND PUSHES THE BEST MOISTURE
TO OUR EAST. SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ALSO WORKS IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER...THE GLOBAL MODELS NOW AGREE ON
THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMING CUTOFF INTO AN UPPER LOW AS
UPPER RIDGES BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND ACROSS THE
WESTERN STATES. THE UPPER LOW THEN SLOWLY RETROGRADES WESTWARD
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP AT LEAST ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW 90S. LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WITH UPPER
70S ALONG THE COAST. /13

&&

.AVIATION [19.18Z KMOB/KBFM/KPNS TAF ISSUANCE]...WIDESPREAD SHRA
WILL IMPACT THE LOCAL TERMINALS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...WITH MVFR
VISIBILITIES (~3SM) AND MVFR CEILINGS (~1500 FEET) POSSIBLE. HEAVIER
THUNDERSTORM CELLS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
CAPABLE OF REDUCING VISIBILITY TO LIFR LEVELS (~1/2SM) AND MVFR
CEILINGS (~1500 FEET). MAINLY VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST...WITH VCTS IN THE FORECAST. FURTHER
UPDATES MAY BE NEEDED TO ADDRESS ADDITIONAL HEAVIER RAIN EXPECTED
AFTER 20.06Z. PREVAILING WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 7-12
KNOTS. A FEW HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR CONVECTION. /22

&&

.MARINE...A LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH
OF THE WEEKEND BETWEEN A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI REGION AND A SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF. THE
TROUGH WILL EXPAND EASTWARD LATE IN THE WEEKEND...ALLOWING WINDS TO
SHIFT TO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
THE WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE TROUGH RETREATS BACK WEST. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO FORM AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH THROUGH
SUNDAY THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. /22

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      74  90  73  93  72 /  60  50  30  20  10
PENSACOLA   75  89  77  91  76 /  70  60  30  30  20
DESTIN      77  88  79  87  78 /  70  60  30  30  30
EVERGREEN   71  91  69  94  70 /  60  60  20  20  20
WAYNESBORO  69  90  69  93  69 /  50  40  20  10  10
CAMDEN      70  90  70  93  70 /  60  50  20  20  20
CRESTVIEW   73  90  71  94  72 /  60  60  20  30  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



















000
FXUS64 KMOB 192327 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
620 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

.AVIATION...[20.00Z ISSUANCE]...MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
21.00Z. MVFR CONDITIONS MOSTLY IN AND AROUND SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO REFORM OVERNIGHT NEAR THE COAST
INCLUDING ALL TERMINAL SITES...CONTINUING THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY THEN
GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST AND NORTH OF ALL TERMINAL SITES BY SUN
AFTERNOON AND SUN EVENING. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
AT 4 TO 7 KTS THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN AND AROUND
THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING MOSTLY DURING OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS ON
SUN. 32/EE

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 350 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014/

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SUNDAY)...A MOIST LOW TO MID LEVEL
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
BETWEEN A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI REGION
AND A SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF. THE BASE OF A LARGE
EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH WILL RESIDE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL...WITH A SERIES OF WEAK EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE/IMPULSES MOVING EASTWARD OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE FIRST
UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST LATE
THIS EVENING...ALLOWING A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY TO ENTER INTO
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND INTERIOR SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE LOW AND MID LEVEL FORCING AFTER
MIDNIGHT...EXPECTED ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE SECOND UPPER
DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
SUNDAY...KEEPING THE SURFACE BOUNDARY STALLED ALONG THE I-65
CORRIDOR THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUNDAY. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
MORNING...WITH NUMEROUS COVERAGE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF. A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN COVERAGE IS THEN EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 69 TO 74 DEGREES MOST LOCATIONS...WITH
MID TO UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL
REACH NEAR 90 DEGREES...WITH MID/UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST. /22


.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...RAIN CHANCES DECREASE SOME ON
MONDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST AND PUSHES THE BEST MOISTURE
TO OUR EAST. SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ALSO WORKS IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER...THE GLOBAL MODELS NOW AGREE ON
THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMING CUTOFF INTO AN UPPER LOW AS
UPPER RIDGES BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND ACROSS THE
WESTERN STATES. THE UPPER LOW THEN SLOWLY RETROGRADES WESTWARD
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP AT LEAST ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW 90S. LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WITH UPPER
70S ALONG THE COAST. /13

&&

.AVIATION [19.18Z KMOB/KBFM/KPNS TAF ISSUANCE]...WIDESPREAD SHRA
WILL IMPACT THE LOCAL TERMINALS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...WITH MVFR
VISIBILITIES (~3SM) AND MVFR CEILINGS (~1500 FEET) POSSIBLE. HEAVIER
THUNDERSTORM CELLS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
CAPABLE OF REDUCING VISIBILITY TO LIFR LEVELS (~1/2SM) AND MVFR
CEILINGS (~1500 FEET). MAINLY VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST...WITH VCTS IN THE FORECAST. FURTHER
UPDATES MAY BE NEEDED TO ADDRESS ADDITIONAL HEAVIER RAIN EXPECTED
AFTER 20.06Z. PREVAILING WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 7-12
KNOTS. A FEW HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR CONVECTION. /22

&&

.MARINE...A LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH
OF THE WEEKEND BETWEEN A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI REGION AND A SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF. THE
TROUGH WILL EXPAND EASTWARD LATE IN THE WEEKEND...ALLOWING WINDS TO
SHIFT TO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
THE WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE TROUGH RETREATS BACK WEST. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO FORM AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH THROUGH
SUNDAY THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. /22

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      74  90  73  93  72 /  60  50  30  20  10
PENSACOLA   75  89  77  91  76 /  70  60  30  30  20
DESTIN      77  88  79  87  78 /  70  60  30  30  30
EVERGREEN   71  91  69  94  70 /  60  60  20  20  20
WAYNESBORO  69  90  69  93  69 /  50  40  20  10  10
CAMDEN      70  90  70  93  70 /  60  50  20  20  20
CRESTVIEW   73  90  71  94  72 /  60  60  20  30  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$















000
FXUS64 KMOB 192327 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
620 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

.AVIATION...[20.00Z ISSUANCE]...MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
21.00Z. MVFR CONDITIONS MOSTLY IN AND AROUND SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO REFORM OVERNIGHT NEAR THE COAST
INCLUDING ALL TERMINAL SITES...CONTINUING THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY THEN
GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST AND NORTH OF ALL TERMINAL SITES BY SUN
AFTERNOON AND SUN EVENING. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
AT 4 TO 7 KTS THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN AND AROUND
THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING MOSTLY DURING OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS ON
SUN. 32/EE

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 350 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014/

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SUNDAY)...A MOIST LOW TO MID LEVEL
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
BETWEEN A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI REGION
AND A SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF. THE BASE OF A LARGE
EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH WILL RESIDE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL...WITH A SERIES OF WEAK EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE/IMPULSES MOVING EASTWARD OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE FIRST
UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST LATE
THIS EVENING...ALLOWING A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY TO ENTER INTO
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND INTERIOR SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE LOW AND MID LEVEL FORCING AFTER
MIDNIGHT...EXPECTED ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE SECOND UPPER
DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
SUNDAY...KEEPING THE SURFACE BOUNDARY STALLED ALONG THE I-65
CORRIDOR THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUNDAY. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
MORNING...WITH NUMEROUS COVERAGE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF. A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN COVERAGE IS THEN EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 69 TO 74 DEGREES MOST LOCATIONS...WITH
MID TO UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL
REACH NEAR 90 DEGREES...WITH MID/UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST. /22


.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...RAIN CHANCES DECREASE SOME ON
MONDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST AND PUSHES THE BEST MOISTURE
TO OUR EAST. SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ALSO WORKS IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER...THE GLOBAL MODELS NOW AGREE ON
THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMING CUTOFF INTO AN UPPER LOW AS
UPPER RIDGES BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND ACROSS THE
WESTERN STATES. THE UPPER LOW THEN SLOWLY RETROGRADES WESTWARD
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP AT LEAST ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW 90S. LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WITH UPPER
70S ALONG THE COAST. /13

&&

.AVIATION [19.18Z KMOB/KBFM/KPNS TAF ISSUANCE]...WIDESPREAD SHRA
WILL IMPACT THE LOCAL TERMINALS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...WITH MVFR
VISIBILITIES (~3SM) AND MVFR CEILINGS (~1500 FEET) POSSIBLE. HEAVIER
THUNDERSTORM CELLS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
CAPABLE OF REDUCING VISIBILITY TO LIFR LEVELS (~1/2SM) AND MVFR
CEILINGS (~1500 FEET). MAINLY VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST...WITH VCTS IN THE FORECAST. FURTHER
UPDATES MAY BE NEEDED TO ADDRESS ADDITIONAL HEAVIER RAIN EXPECTED
AFTER 20.06Z. PREVAILING WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 7-12
KNOTS. A FEW HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR CONVECTION. /22

&&

.MARINE...A LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH
OF THE WEEKEND BETWEEN A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI REGION AND A SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF. THE
TROUGH WILL EXPAND EASTWARD LATE IN THE WEEKEND...ALLOWING WINDS TO
SHIFT TO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
THE WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE TROUGH RETREATS BACK WEST. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO FORM AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH THROUGH
SUNDAY THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. /22

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      74  90  73  93  72 /  60  50  30  20  10
PENSACOLA   75  89  77  91  76 /  70  60  30  30  20
DESTIN      77  88  79  87  78 /  70  60  30  30  30
EVERGREEN   71  91  69  94  70 /  60  60  20  20  20
WAYNESBORO  69  90  69  93  69 /  50  40  20  10  10
CAMDEN      70  90  70  93  70 /  60  50  20  20  20
CRESTVIEW   73  90  71  94  72 /  60  60  20  30  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$
















000
FXUS64 KMOB 192054
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
350 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SUNDAY)...A MOIST LOW TO MID LEVEL
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
BETWEEN A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI REGION
AND A SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF. THE BASE OF A LARGE
EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH WILL RESIDE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL...WITH A SERIES OF WEAK EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE/IMPULSES MOVING EASTWARD OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE FIRST
UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST LATE
THIS EVENING...ALLOWING A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY TO ENTER INTO
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND INTERIOR SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE LOW AND MID LEVEL FORCING AFTER
MIDNIGHT...EXPECTED ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE SECOND UPPER
DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
SUNDAY...KEEPING THE SURFACE BOUNDARY STALLED ALONG THE I-65
CORRIDOR THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUNDAY. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
MORNING...WITH NUMEROUS COVERAGE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF. A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN COVERAGE IS THEN EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 69 TO 74 DEGREES MOST LOCATIONS...WITH
MID TO UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL
REACH NEAR 90 DEGREES...WITH MID/UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST. /22


.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...RAIN CHANCES DECREASE SOME ON
MONDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST AND PUSHES THE BEST MOISTURE
TO OUR EAST. SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ALSO WORKS IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER...THE GLOBAL MODELS NOW AGREE ON
THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMING CUTOFF INTO AN UPPER LOW AS
UPPER RIDGES BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND ACROSS THE
WESTERN STATES. THE UPPER LOW THEN SLOWLY RETROGRADES WESTWARD
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP AT LEAST ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW 90S. LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WITH UPPER
70S ALONG THE COAST. /13

&&

.AVIATION [19.18Z KMOB/KBFM/KPNS TAF ISSUANCE]...WIDESPREAD SHRA
WILL IMPACT THE LOCAL TERMINALS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...WITH MVFR
VISIBILITIES (~3SM) AND MVFR CEILINGS (~1500 FEET) POSSIBLE. HEAVIER
THUNDERSTORM CELLS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
CAPABLE OF REDUCING VISIBILITY TO LIFR LEVELS (~1/2SM) AND MVFR
CEILINGS (~1500 FEET). MAINLY VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST...WITH VCTS IN THE FORECAST. FURTHER
UPDATES MAY BE NEEDED TO ADDRESS ADDITIONAL HEAVIER RAIN EXPECTED
AFTER 20.06Z. PREVAILING WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 7-12
KNOTS. A FEW HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR CONVECTION. /22

&&

.MARINE...A LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH
OF THE WEEKEND BETWEEN A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI REGION AND A SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF. THE
TROUGH WILL EXPAND EASTWARD LATE IN THE WEEKEND...ALLOWING WINDS TO
SHIFT TO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
THE WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE TROUGH RETREATS BACK WEST. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO FORM AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH THROUGH
SUNDAY THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. /22

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      74  90  73  93  72 /  60  50  30  20  10
PENSACOLA   75  89  77  91  76 /  70  60  30  30  20
DESTIN      77  88  79  87  78 /  70  60  30  30  30
EVERGREEN   71  91  69  94  70 /  60  60  20  20  20
WAYNESBORO  69  90  69  93  69 /  50  40  20  10  10
CAMDEN      70  90  70  93  70 /  60  50  20  20  20
CRESTVIEW   73  90  71  94  72 /  60  60  20  30  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$












000
FXUS64 KMOB 192054
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
350 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SUNDAY)...A MOIST LOW TO MID LEVEL
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
BETWEEN A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI REGION
AND A SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF. THE BASE OF A LARGE
EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH WILL RESIDE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL...WITH A SERIES OF WEAK EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE/IMPULSES MOVING EASTWARD OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE FIRST
UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST LATE
THIS EVENING...ALLOWING A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY TO ENTER INTO
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND INTERIOR SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE LOW AND MID LEVEL FORCING AFTER
MIDNIGHT...EXPECTED ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE SECOND UPPER
DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
SUNDAY...KEEPING THE SURFACE BOUNDARY STALLED ALONG THE I-65
CORRIDOR THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUNDAY. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
MORNING...WITH NUMEROUS COVERAGE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF. A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN COVERAGE IS THEN EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 69 TO 74 DEGREES MOST LOCATIONS...WITH
MID TO UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL
REACH NEAR 90 DEGREES...WITH MID/UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST. /22


.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...RAIN CHANCES DECREASE SOME ON
MONDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST AND PUSHES THE BEST MOISTURE
TO OUR EAST. SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ALSO WORKS IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER...THE GLOBAL MODELS NOW AGREE ON
THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMING CUTOFF INTO AN UPPER LOW AS
UPPER RIDGES BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND ACROSS THE
WESTERN STATES. THE UPPER LOW THEN SLOWLY RETROGRADES WESTWARD
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP AT LEAST ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW 90S. LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WITH UPPER
70S ALONG THE COAST. /13

&&

.AVIATION [19.18Z KMOB/KBFM/KPNS TAF ISSUANCE]...WIDESPREAD SHRA
WILL IMPACT THE LOCAL TERMINALS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...WITH MVFR
VISIBILITIES (~3SM) AND MVFR CEILINGS (~1500 FEET) POSSIBLE. HEAVIER
THUNDERSTORM CELLS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
CAPABLE OF REDUCING VISIBILITY TO LIFR LEVELS (~1/2SM) AND MVFR
CEILINGS (~1500 FEET). MAINLY VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST...WITH VCTS IN THE FORECAST. FURTHER
UPDATES MAY BE NEEDED TO ADDRESS ADDITIONAL HEAVIER RAIN EXPECTED
AFTER 20.06Z. PREVAILING WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 7-12
KNOTS. A FEW HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR CONVECTION. /22

&&

.MARINE...A LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH
OF THE WEEKEND BETWEEN A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI REGION AND A SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF. THE
TROUGH WILL EXPAND EASTWARD LATE IN THE WEEKEND...ALLOWING WINDS TO
SHIFT TO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
THE WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE TROUGH RETREATS BACK WEST. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO FORM AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH THROUGH
SUNDAY THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. /22

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      74  90  73  93  72 /  60  50  30  20  10
PENSACOLA   75  89  77  91  76 /  70  60  30  30  20
DESTIN      77  88  79  87  78 /  70  60  30  30  30
EVERGREEN   71  91  69  94  70 /  60  60  20  20  20
WAYNESBORO  69  90  69  93  69 /  50  40  20  10  10
CAMDEN      70  90  70  93  70 /  60  50  20  20  20
CRESTVIEW   73  90  71  94  72 /  60  60  20  30  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$













000
FXUS64 KMOB 191800 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
100 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

.AVIATION [19.18Z KMOB/KBFM/KPNS TAF ISSUANCE]...WIDESPREAD SHRA WILL
IMPACT THE LOCAL TERMINALS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...WITH MVFR
VISIBILITIES (~3SM) AND MVFR CEILINGS (~1500 FEET) POSSIBLE. HEAVIER
THUNDERSTORM CELLS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
CAPABLE OF REDUCING VISIBILITY TO LIFR LEVELS (~1/2SM) AND MVFR
CEILINGS (~1500 FEET). MAINLY VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST...WITH VCTS IN THE FORECAST. FURTHER
UPDATES MAY BE NEEDED TO ADDRESS ADDITIONAL HEAVIER RAIN EXPECTED
AFTER 20.06Z. PREVAILING WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 7-12
KNOTS. A FEW HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR CONVECTION. /22

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 941 AM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014/

SHORT TERM MARINE UPDATE...AREA BUOY OBSERVATIONS HAVE BEEN
REPORTING CONSISTENT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS ACROSS THE
GULF WATERS OVER THE PAST 8 HOURS. WHILE SOME OF THIS IS BEING
DRIVEN BY CONVECTION...IT SEEMS PRUDENT TO ADD SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES TO THE GULF WATERS AREAS THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON AS THE TREND CONTINUES. ALSO...BUOY 42012 12 MILES SOUTH
OF ORANGE BEACH IS NOW REPORTING SEAS UP TO 5 FEET. THE UPDATED GRIDS
AND CWF PRODUCT HAVE BEEN SENT. /22

SHORT TERM PUBLIC UPDATE...NOW MUCH CHANGE REQUIRED THIS MORNING FOR
THE PUBLIC FORECAST AS WE ARE EXPECTING LIKELY TO CATEGORY SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WHILE THERE IS A
LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION IN THE WAKE OF THE LARGE CLUSTER OF SHOWERS
EXITING THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC IS
INDICATING ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION EXPANDING IN COVERAGE TO OUR
WEST THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY NOON. DUE THE EXPECTED
RAIN COOLED AIR MASS FROM THE LARGE PRECIP COVERAGE AREA...CAPPED
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AT AROUND 86 DEGREES (SIMILAR
TO YESTERDAY) TO REMOVE MENTION OF UPPER 80S FROM THE POINT AND CLICK
AND ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT. THE UPDATED GRIDS AND ZFP PRODUCT HAVE BEEN
SENT. /22

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 507 AM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014/

.AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST REGION TODAY WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE...

SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...FOR TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT...EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 500 MB HEIGHT
ANALYSIS SHOW A MID LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY PUSHING EASTWARD FROM
SOUTHEAST TEXAS THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE RIVER
VALLEY REGION...WHILE SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
VICINITY OF NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI WITH AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL PORTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWESTWARD
TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS COAST. A VERY MOIST/TROPICAL AIRMASS
RESIDES ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH AXIS AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AVERAGING BETWEEN 2.0 TO AROUND 2.25
INCHES. NOCTURNAL CONVECTION HAS FIRED AS EXPECTED NEAR THE COAST
WITHIN A REGION OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVERNIGHT/EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THE BEST COVERAGE
EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA...TO FAR SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI...AND COASTAL PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND THE
NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE. SOME OF THE HEAVIER CELLS CONTAIN HEAVY
RAIN. IN FACT...THE KMOB AIRPORT HAS RECORDED A LITTLE OVER 1 INCH
OF RAIN DURING THE PAST HOUR AS ONE OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS HAVE
MOVED OVERHEAD.

THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SWING EASTWARD
TODAY...WHILE THE SURFACE BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO STRETCH FROM THE
SOUTHEAST TEXAS COAST TO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND NORTHWEST ALABAMA.
SHORT RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH KEEPING THE PLUME
OF TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY...WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CONTINUING TO RANGE FROM 2.0 TO AROUND
2.25 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR ALONG
WITH THE SHORT RANGE SOLUTIONS FROM THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE CONVECTION DEVELOPING MOSTLY OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR
CWFA THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH DEVELOPMENT SPREADING FARTHER INLAND
GOING INTO THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. WE HAVE TRENDED POPS
SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE VALUES OPTING TO GO AROUND CATEGORICAL
VALUES NEAR THE COAST TODAY...WHILE ALSO MENTIONING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL ACROSS THESE LOCATIONS IN THE WEATHER GRIDS. QPF WAS
TRENDED VERY CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE THIS MORNING. POPS WERE TAPERED
TO THE 50-70 PERCENT RANGE AS YOU HEAD FARTHER NORTH AND WEST ACROSS
THE CWFA TODAY...BUT LATER SHIFTS MAY HAVE TO TREND POPS A LITTLE
HIGHER OVER THESE AREAS IF CONVECTIVE COVERAGE FILLS IN FARTHER
INLAND LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE THAT WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...THERE
IS POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...ESPECIALLY
NEAR COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE CWFA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THERE
WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING TODAY...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN A BROADER SCALE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL CURRENTLY
REMAINS LOW ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH ISSUANCE. WE
TRENDED HIGH TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE COOLER GUIDANCE NUMBERS TODAY
GIVEN THE CLOUDY SKIES AND THE HIGH POTENTIAL OF PRECIPITATION.

OUR FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN ON THE BASE OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH
THROUGH TONIGHT...AND THE HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER AIRMASS WILL
REMAIN INTACT OVER OUR REGION. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE COULD DECREASE
DURING THE EVENING SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...BUT ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED TO BLOSSOM NEAR THE COAST AND OFFSHORE WATERS AGAIN
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WE HAVE TRENDED POPS HIGHER NEAR THE
COAST LATE TONIGHT...WHILE KEEPING AT LEAST CHANCE WORDING FARTHER
INLAND GIVEN THE MOIST AIRMASS. OVERNIGHT MINS WERE TRENDED VERY
CLOSE TO GUIDANCE NUMBERS. /21

THE WET MICROBURST RISK TODAY IS IN THE MODERATE CATEGORY.

SUNDAY...MORE UPPER ENERGY MOVES INTO THE EASTERN CONUS UPPER
TROUGH...PUSHING THE SEMI-STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY SOUTHEASTWARD
TO OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE FA. THIS CONCENTRATES THE
BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FA...AND
LIMITS DAYTIME HEATING...THUS MAX TEMPS TO BELOW SEASONAL. HAVE
LEANED TOWARDS THE COOLER NAM/ECMWF SOLUTION FOR TEMPS AS A RESULT.

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT MOVES INTO THE EASTERN
TROUGH DIGS THE TROUGH MORE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...ALONG WITH
SHIFTING IT EAST A BIT MORE. THE SURFACE BOUNDARY SHIFTS A BIT
FURTHER EASTWARD...SHIFTING THE BEST POPS A BIT MORE
SOUTHEASTWARD....AND LIMITING NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FA.
TEMPS...WITH THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER CONTINUING...A TIGHTER THAN
SEASONAL TEMP RANGE CONTINUES WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND OR A BIT
ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS.

MONDAY...THE EASTERN UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST...WITH THE FA SEEING
A DECREASE IN THE RAIN. GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
REMAINING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FA...HELPING TO PROVIDE
THE FOCUS FOR DAYTIME TSRA. WITH THE DECREASE IN PRECIP COVERAGE AND
ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER...DAYTIME TEMPS AROUND SEASONAL EXPECTED.

LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT ON)...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A SHIFTING AND BUILDING OF
AN UPPER HIGH OVER NM/CO AS MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES EAST ALONG THE
US/CA BORDER AND INTO THE EASTERN UPPER TROUGH. THIS ENERGY SHIFTS
THE NORTHERN END OF THE TROUGH EASTWARD...WHILST LEAVING THE SOUTHERN
END STRETCHING SW OVER THE FA. WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC...A MORE ORGANIZED SOUTHERLY FLOW SETS UP OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC...OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
OVER THE FA WASHES OUT...WITH POPS DROPPING BELOW SEASONAL AND TEMPS
AROUND.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...SOME OF THE ENERGY MOVING OVER HE
US/CA BORDER GETS INTO THE EASTERN TROUGH...DIGGING THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE EASTERN TROUGH MORE...AND WITH THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC BUILDING WESTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN GULF...THE UPPER
HIGH OVER CO/NM SHIFTS WESTWARD TO OVER THE GREAT BASIN. A SURFACE
RIDGE BUILDS WEST OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEX...RESTORING A MORE
ORGANIZED SOUTH...THEN SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER
VALLEY AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. THE FA COMES UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING WEST OVER THE GULF...WITH TEMPS RISING TO ABOVE SEASONAL
LEVELS AND THE CHANCE OF PRECIP DROPPING TO BELOW SEASONAL.

THURSDAY NIGHT ON...AN UPPER LOW MOVING EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN CA
PLAINS FLATTENS THE WESTERN CONUS HIGH...AND DEPENDING UPON WHICH
MODEL ONE LAYS STOCK IN...THE EASTERN TROUGH GETS SHOVED EAST OF THE
FA(GFS) OR BEGINS TO JOIN WITH THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC(ECMWF). THE GFS SCENARIO BUILDS TEMPS WELL ABOVE SEASONAL
WITH POPS A BIT BELOW...WHILST THE ECMWF SCENARIO...KEEPING THE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE FA WHILE WEAKENING IT SIGNIFICANTLY...IS ADVERTISING
TEMPS AROUND SEASONAL WITH POPS A BIT BELOW. THE GFS ENSEMBLES ARE
ADVERTISING A RESULT BETWEEN THEM...SO HAVE BLENDED THE GFS AND
ECMWF SOLUTIONS FOR THE LAST PART OF THE FORECAST.

MARINE...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST REGION THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...WHILE A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN THE VICINITY OF THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. A
MOSTLY MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
MARINE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A VERY MOIST AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MARINE AREA...ESPECIALLY THIS
MORNING AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...A LIGHT MAINLY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER THE MARINE AREA
DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. /21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      86  74  89  73  91 /  80  60  50  30  20
PENSACOLA   86  76  88  75  90 /  90  70  60  30  30
DESTIN      84  77  87  76  88 /  90  70  60  30  30
EVERGREEN   85  71  89  69  91 /  70  60  60  20  20
WAYNESBORO  86  70  89  70  92 /  50  50  40  20  10
CAMDEN      85  70  89  70  91 /  60  60  50  20  20
CRESTVIEW   84  73  89  70  92 /  90  60  60  20  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMOB 191800 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
100 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

.AVIATION [19.18Z KMOB/KBFM/KPNS TAF ISSUANCE]...WIDESPREAD SHRA WILL
IMPACT THE LOCAL TERMINALS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...WITH MVFR
VISIBILITIES (~3SM) AND MVFR CEILINGS (~1500 FEET) POSSIBLE. HEAVIER
THUNDERSTORM CELLS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
CAPABLE OF REDUCING VISIBILITY TO LIFR LEVELS (~1/2SM) AND MVFR
CEILINGS (~1500 FEET). MAINLY VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST...WITH VCTS IN THE FORECAST. FURTHER
UPDATES MAY BE NEEDED TO ADDRESS ADDITIONAL HEAVIER RAIN EXPECTED
AFTER 20.06Z. PREVAILING WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 7-12
KNOTS. A FEW HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR CONVECTION. /22

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 941 AM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014/

SHORT TERM MARINE UPDATE...AREA BUOY OBSERVATIONS HAVE BEEN
REPORTING CONSISTENT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS ACROSS THE
GULF WATERS OVER THE PAST 8 HOURS. WHILE SOME OF THIS IS BEING
DRIVEN BY CONVECTION...IT SEEMS PRUDENT TO ADD SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES TO THE GULF WATERS AREAS THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON AS THE TREND CONTINUES. ALSO...BUOY 42012 12 MILES SOUTH
OF ORANGE BEACH IS NOW REPORTING SEAS UP TO 5 FEET. THE UPDATED GRIDS
AND CWF PRODUCT HAVE BEEN SENT. /22

SHORT TERM PUBLIC UPDATE...NOW MUCH CHANGE REQUIRED THIS MORNING FOR
THE PUBLIC FORECAST AS WE ARE EXPECTING LIKELY TO CATEGORY SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WHILE THERE IS A
LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION IN THE WAKE OF THE LARGE CLUSTER OF SHOWERS
EXITING THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC IS
INDICATING ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION EXPANDING IN COVERAGE TO OUR
WEST THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY NOON. DUE THE EXPECTED
RAIN COOLED AIR MASS FROM THE LARGE PRECIP COVERAGE AREA...CAPPED
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AT AROUND 86 DEGREES (SIMILAR
TO YESTERDAY) TO REMOVE MENTION OF UPPER 80S FROM THE POINT AND CLICK
AND ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT. THE UPDATED GRIDS AND ZFP PRODUCT HAVE BEEN
SENT. /22

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 507 AM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014/

.AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST REGION TODAY WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE...

SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...FOR TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT...EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 500 MB HEIGHT
ANALYSIS SHOW A MID LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY PUSHING EASTWARD FROM
SOUTHEAST TEXAS THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE RIVER
VALLEY REGION...WHILE SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
VICINITY OF NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI WITH AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL PORTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWESTWARD
TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS COAST. A VERY MOIST/TROPICAL AIRMASS
RESIDES ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH AXIS AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AVERAGING BETWEEN 2.0 TO AROUND 2.25
INCHES. NOCTURNAL CONVECTION HAS FIRED AS EXPECTED NEAR THE COAST
WITHIN A REGION OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVERNIGHT/EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THE BEST COVERAGE
EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA...TO FAR SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI...AND COASTAL PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND THE
NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE. SOME OF THE HEAVIER CELLS CONTAIN HEAVY
RAIN. IN FACT...THE KMOB AIRPORT HAS RECORDED A LITTLE OVER 1 INCH
OF RAIN DURING THE PAST HOUR AS ONE OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS HAVE
MOVED OVERHEAD.

THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SWING EASTWARD
TODAY...WHILE THE SURFACE BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO STRETCH FROM THE
SOUTHEAST TEXAS COAST TO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND NORTHWEST ALABAMA.
SHORT RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH KEEPING THE PLUME
OF TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY...WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CONTINUING TO RANGE FROM 2.0 TO AROUND
2.25 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR ALONG
WITH THE SHORT RANGE SOLUTIONS FROM THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE CONVECTION DEVELOPING MOSTLY OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR
CWFA THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH DEVELOPMENT SPREADING FARTHER INLAND
GOING INTO THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. WE HAVE TRENDED POPS
SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE VALUES OPTING TO GO AROUND CATEGORICAL
VALUES NEAR THE COAST TODAY...WHILE ALSO MENTIONING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL ACROSS THESE LOCATIONS IN THE WEATHER GRIDS. QPF WAS
TRENDED VERY CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE THIS MORNING. POPS WERE TAPERED
TO THE 50-70 PERCENT RANGE AS YOU HEAD FARTHER NORTH AND WEST ACROSS
THE CWFA TODAY...BUT LATER SHIFTS MAY HAVE TO TREND POPS A LITTLE
HIGHER OVER THESE AREAS IF CONVECTIVE COVERAGE FILLS IN FARTHER
INLAND LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE THAT WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...THERE
IS POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...ESPECIALLY
NEAR COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE CWFA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THERE
WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING TODAY...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN A BROADER SCALE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL CURRENTLY
REMAINS LOW ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH ISSUANCE. WE
TRENDED HIGH TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE COOLER GUIDANCE NUMBERS TODAY
GIVEN THE CLOUDY SKIES AND THE HIGH POTENTIAL OF PRECIPITATION.

OUR FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN ON THE BASE OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH
THROUGH TONIGHT...AND THE HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER AIRMASS WILL
REMAIN INTACT OVER OUR REGION. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE COULD DECREASE
DURING THE EVENING SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...BUT ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED TO BLOSSOM NEAR THE COAST AND OFFSHORE WATERS AGAIN
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WE HAVE TRENDED POPS HIGHER NEAR THE
COAST LATE TONIGHT...WHILE KEEPING AT LEAST CHANCE WORDING FARTHER
INLAND GIVEN THE MOIST AIRMASS. OVERNIGHT MINS WERE TRENDED VERY
CLOSE TO GUIDANCE NUMBERS. /21

THE WET MICROBURST RISK TODAY IS IN THE MODERATE CATEGORY.

SUNDAY...MORE UPPER ENERGY MOVES INTO THE EASTERN CONUS UPPER
TROUGH...PUSHING THE SEMI-STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY SOUTHEASTWARD
TO OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE FA. THIS CONCENTRATES THE
BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FA...AND
LIMITS DAYTIME HEATING...THUS MAX TEMPS TO BELOW SEASONAL. HAVE
LEANED TOWARDS THE COOLER NAM/ECMWF SOLUTION FOR TEMPS AS A RESULT.

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT MOVES INTO THE EASTERN
TROUGH DIGS THE TROUGH MORE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...ALONG WITH
SHIFTING IT EAST A BIT MORE. THE SURFACE BOUNDARY SHIFTS A BIT
FURTHER EASTWARD...SHIFTING THE BEST POPS A BIT MORE
SOUTHEASTWARD....AND LIMITING NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FA.
TEMPS...WITH THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER CONTINUING...A TIGHTER THAN
SEASONAL TEMP RANGE CONTINUES WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND OR A BIT
ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS.

MONDAY...THE EASTERN UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST...WITH THE FA SEEING
A DECREASE IN THE RAIN. GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
REMAINING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FA...HELPING TO PROVIDE
THE FOCUS FOR DAYTIME TSRA. WITH THE DECREASE IN PRECIP COVERAGE AND
ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER...DAYTIME TEMPS AROUND SEASONAL EXPECTED.

LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT ON)...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A SHIFTING AND BUILDING OF
AN UPPER HIGH OVER NM/CO AS MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES EAST ALONG THE
US/CA BORDER AND INTO THE EASTERN UPPER TROUGH. THIS ENERGY SHIFTS
THE NORTHERN END OF THE TROUGH EASTWARD...WHILST LEAVING THE SOUTHERN
END STRETCHING SW OVER THE FA. WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC...A MORE ORGANIZED SOUTHERLY FLOW SETS UP OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC...OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
OVER THE FA WASHES OUT...WITH POPS DROPPING BELOW SEASONAL AND TEMPS
AROUND.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...SOME OF THE ENERGY MOVING OVER HE
US/CA BORDER GETS INTO THE EASTERN TROUGH...DIGGING THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE EASTERN TROUGH MORE...AND WITH THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC BUILDING WESTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN GULF...THE UPPER
HIGH OVER CO/NM SHIFTS WESTWARD TO OVER THE GREAT BASIN. A SURFACE
RIDGE BUILDS WEST OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEX...RESTORING A MORE
ORGANIZED SOUTH...THEN SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER
VALLEY AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. THE FA COMES UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING WEST OVER THE GULF...WITH TEMPS RISING TO ABOVE SEASONAL
LEVELS AND THE CHANCE OF PRECIP DROPPING TO BELOW SEASONAL.

THURSDAY NIGHT ON...AN UPPER LOW MOVING EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN CA
PLAINS FLATTENS THE WESTERN CONUS HIGH...AND DEPENDING UPON WHICH
MODEL ONE LAYS STOCK IN...THE EASTERN TROUGH GETS SHOVED EAST OF THE
FA(GFS) OR BEGINS TO JOIN WITH THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC(ECMWF). THE GFS SCENARIO BUILDS TEMPS WELL ABOVE SEASONAL
WITH POPS A BIT BELOW...WHILST THE ECMWF SCENARIO...KEEPING THE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE FA WHILE WEAKENING IT SIGNIFICANTLY...IS ADVERTISING
TEMPS AROUND SEASONAL WITH POPS A BIT BELOW. THE GFS ENSEMBLES ARE
ADVERTISING A RESULT BETWEEN THEM...SO HAVE BLENDED THE GFS AND
ECMWF SOLUTIONS FOR THE LAST PART OF THE FORECAST.

MARINE...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST REGION THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...WHILE A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN THE VICINITY OF THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. A
MOSTLY MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
MARINE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A VERY MOIST AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MARINE AREA...ESPECIALLY THIS
MORNING AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...A LIGHT MAINLY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER THE MARINE AREA
DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. /21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      86  74  89  73  91 /  80  60  50  30  20
PENSACOLA   86  76  88  75  90 /  90  70  60  30  30
DESTIN      84  77  87  76  88 /  90  70  60  30  30
EVERGREEN   85  71  89  69  91 /  70  60  60  20  20
WAYNESBORO  86  70  89  70  92 /  50  50  40  20  10
CAMDEN      85  70  89  70  91 /  60  60  50  20  20
CRESTVIEW   84  73  89  70  92 /  90  60  60  20  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KMOB 191441 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
941 AM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

.SHORT TERM MARINE UPDATE...AREA BUOY OBSERVATIONS HAVE BEEN
REPORTING CONSISTENT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS ACROSS THE
GULF WATERS OVER THE PAST 8 HOURS. WHILE SOME OF THIS IS BEING
DRIVEN BY CONVECTION...IT SEEMS PRUDENT TO ADD SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES TO THE GULF WATERS AREAS THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON AS THE TREND CONTINUES. ALSO...BUOY 42012 12 MILES SOUTH
OF ORANGE BEACH IS NOW REPORTING SEAS UP TO 5 FEET. THE UPDATED GRIDS
AND CWF PRODUCT HAVE BEEN SENT. /22

.SHORT TERM PUBLIC UPDATE...NOW MUCH CHANGE REQUIRED THIS MORNING FOR
THE PUBLIC FORECAST AS WE ARE EXPECTING LIKELY TO CATEGORY SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WHILE THERE IS A
LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION IN THE WAKE OF THE LARGE CLUSTER OF SHOWERS
EXITING THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC IS
INDICATING ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION EXPANDING IN COVERAGE TO OUR
WEST THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY NOON. DUE THE EXPECTED
RAIN COOLED AIR MASS FROM THE LARGE PRECIP COVERAGE AREA...CAPPED
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AT AROUND 86 DEGREES (SIMILAR
TO YESTERDAY) TO REMOVE MENTION OF UPPER 80S FROM THE POINT AND CLICK
AND ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT. THE UPDATED GRIDS AND ZFP PRODUCT HAVE BEEN
SENT. /22

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 507 AM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014/

..AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST REGION TODAY WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE...

SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...FOR TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT...EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 500 MB HEIGHT
ANALYSIS SHOW A MID LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY PUSHING EASTWARD FROM
SOUTHEAST TEXAS THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE RIVER
VALLEY REGION...WHILE SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
VICINITY OF NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI WITH AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL PORTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWESTWARD
TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS COAST. A VERY MOIST/TROPICAL AIRMASS
RESIDES ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH AXIS AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AVERAGING BETWEEN 2.0 TO AROUND 2.25
INCHES. NOCTURNAL CONVECTION HAS FIRED AS EXPECTED NEAR THE COAST
WITHIN A REGION OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVERNIGHT/EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THE BEST COVERAGE
EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA...TO FAR SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI...AND COASTAL PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND THE
NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE. SOME OF THE HEAVIER CELLS CONTAIN HEAVY
RAIN. IN FACT...THE KMOB AIRPORT HAS RECORDED A LITTLE OVER 1 INCH
OF RAIN DURING THE PAST HOUR AS ONE OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS HAVE
MOVED OVERHEAD.

THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SWING EASTWARD
TODAY...WHILE THE SURFACE BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO STRETCH FROM THE
SOUTHEAST TEXAS COAST TO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND NORTHWEST ALABAMA.
SHORT RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH KEEPING THE PLUME
OF TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY...WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CONTINUING TO RANGE FROM 2.0 TO AROUND
2.25 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR ALONG
WITH THE SHORT RANGE SOLUTIONS FROM THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE CONVECTION DEVELOPING MOSTLY OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR
CWFA THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH DEVELOPMENT SPREADING FARTHER INLAND
GOING INTO THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. WE HAVE TRENDED POPS
SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE VALUES OPTING TO GO AROUND CATEGORICAL
VALUES NEAR THE COAST TODAY...WHILE ALSO MENTIONING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL ACROSS THESE LOCATIONS IN THE WEATHER GRIDS. QPF WAS
TRENDED VERY CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE THIS MORNING. POPS WERE TAPERED
TO THE 50-70 PERCENT RANGE AS YOU HEAD FARTHER NORTH AND WEST ACROSS
THE CWFA TODAY...BUT LATER SHIFTS MAY HAVE TO TREND POPS A LITTLE
HIGHER OVER THESE AREAS IF CONVECTIVE COVERAGE FILLS IN FARTHER
INLAND LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE THAT WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...THERE
IS POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...ESPECIALLY
NEAR COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE CWFA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THERE
WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING TODAY...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN A BROADER SCALE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL CURRENTLY
REMAINS LOW ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH ISSUANCE. WE
TRENDED HIGH TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE COOLER GUIDANCE NUMBERS TODAY
GIVEN THE CLOUDY SKIES AND THE HIGH POTENTIAL OF PRECIPITATION.

OUR FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN ON THE BASE OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH
THROUGH TONIGHT...AND THE HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER AIRMASS WILL
REMAIN INTACT OVER OUR REGION. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE COULD DECREASE
DURING THE EVENING SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...BUT ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED TO BLOSSOM NEAR THE COAST AND OFFSHORE WATERS AGAIN
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WE HAVE TRENDED POPS HIGHER NEAR THE
COAST LATE TONIGHT...WHILE KEEPING AT LEAST CHANCE WORDING FARTHER
INLAND GIVEN THE MOIST AIRMASS. OVERNIGHT MINS WERE TRENDED VERY
CLOSE TO GUIDANCE NUMBERS. /21

THE WET MICROBURST RISK TODAY IS IN THE MODERATE CATEGORY.

SUNDAY...MORE UPPER ENERGY MOVES INTO THE EASTERN CONUS UPPER
TROUGH...PUSHING THE SEMI-STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY SOUTHEASTWARD
TO OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE FA. THIS CONCENTRATES THE
BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FA...AND
LIMITS DAYTIME HEATING...THUS MAX TEMPS TO BELOW SEASONAL. HAVE
LEANED TOWARDS THE COOLER NAM/ECMWF SOLUTION FOR TEMPS AS A RESULT.

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT MOVES INTO THE EASTERN
TROUGH DIGS THE TROUGH MORE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...ALONG WITH
SHIFTING IT EAST A BIT MORE. THE SURFACE BOUNDARY SHIFTS A BIT
FURTHER EASTWARD...SHIFTING THE BEST POPS A BIT MORE
SOUTHEASTWARD....AND LIMITING NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FA.
TEMPS...WITH THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER CONTINUING...A TIGHTER THAN
SEASONAL TEMP RANGE CONTINUES WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND OR A BIT
ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS.

MONDAY...THE EASTERN UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST...WITH THE FA SEEING
A DECREASE IN THE RAIN. GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
REMAINING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FA...HELPING TO PROVIDE
THE FOCUS FOR DAYTIME TSRA. WITH THE DECREASE IN PRECIP COVERAGE AND
ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER...DAYTIME TEMPS AROUND SEASONAL EXPECTED.

LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT ON)...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A SHIFTING AND BUILDING OF
AN UPPER HIGH OVER NM/CO AS MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES EAST ALONG THE
US/CA BORDER AND INTO THE EASTERN UPPER TROUGH. THIS ENERGY SHIFTS
THE NORTHERN END OF THE TROUGH EASTWARD...WHILST LEAVING THE SOUTHERN
END STRETCHING SW OVER THE FA. WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC...A MORE ORGANIZED SOUTHERLY FLOW SETS UP OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC...OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
OVER THE FA WASHES OUT...WITH POPS DROPPING BELOW SEASONAL AND TEMPS
AROUND.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...SOME OF THE ENERGY MOVING OVER HE
US/CA BORDER GETS INTO THE EASTERN TROUGH...DIGGING THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE EASTERN TROUGH MORE...AND WITH THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC BUILDING WESTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN GULF...THE UPPER
HIGH OVER CO/NM SHIFTS WESTWARD TO OVER THE GREAT BASIN. A SURFACE
RIDGE BUILDS WEST OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEX...RESTORING A MORE
ORGANIZED SOUTH...THEN SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER
VALLEY AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. THE FA COMES UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING WEST OVER THE GULF...WITH TEMPS RISING TO ABOVE SEASONAL
LEVELS AND THE CHANCE OF PRECIP DROPPING TO BELOW SEASONAL.

THURSDAY NIGHT ON...AN UPPER LOW MOVING EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN CA
PLAINS FLATTENS THE WESTERN CONUS HIGH...AND DEPENDING UPON WHICH
MODEL ONE LAYS STOCK IN...THE EASTERN TROUGH GETS SHOVED EAST OF THE
FA(GFS) OR BEGINS TO JOIN WITH THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC(ECMWF). THE GFS SCENARIO BUILDS TEMPS WELL ABOVE SEASONAL
WITH POPS A BIT BELOW...WHILST THE ECMWF SCENARIO...KEEPING THE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE FA WHILE WEAKENING IT SIGNIFICANTLY...IS ADVERTISING
TEMPS AROUND SEASONAL WITH POPS A BIT BELOW. THE GFS ENSEMBLES ARE
ADVERTISING A RESULT BETWEEN THEM...SO HAVE BLENDED THE GFS AND
ECMWF SOLUTIONS FOR THE LAST PART OF THE FORECAST.

AVIATION...
[19.12Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION]...WIDESPREAD SHRA WITH A FEW
EMBEDDED TSRA WILL IMPACT THE LOCAL TERMINALS THIS MORNING. THE
HEAVIER CELLS WILL BE CAPABLE OF REDUCING VISIBILITY TO IFR TO LIFR
LEVELS WHILE MVFR TO LOCALIZED IFR CEILINGS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THOUGH
LOCALIZED MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE. PREVAILING WINDS WILL BE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KNOTS AT KMOB AND KBFM...AND AROUND 10
KNOTS AT KPNS. A FEW HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR CONVECTION.
/21

MARINE...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST REGION THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...WHILE A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN THE VICINITY OF THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. A
MOSTLY MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
MARINE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A VERY MOIST AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MARINE AREA...ESPECIALLY THIS
MORNING AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...A LIGHT MAINLY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER THE MARINE AREA
DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. /21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      86  74  89  73  91 /  80  50  50  20  30
PENSACOLA   86  76  88  75  90 /  80  60  60  30  40
DESTIN      84  77  87  76  88 /  80  60  70  50  40
EVERGREEN   85  71  89  69  91 /  70  40  50  20  30
WAYNESBORO  86  70  89  70  92 /  50  30  30  20  20
CAMDEN      85  70  89  70  91 /  60  30  40  20  30
CRESTVIEW   84  73  89  70  92 /  80  50  70  30  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMOB 191441 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
941 AM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

.SHORT TERM MARINE UPDATE...AREA BUOY OBSERVATIONS HAVE BEEN
REPORTING CONSISTENT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS ACROSS THE
GULF WATERS OVER THE PAST 8 HOURS. WHILE SOME OF THIS IS BEING
DRIVEN BY CONVECTION...IT SEEMS PRUDENT TO ADD SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES TO THE GULF WATERS AREAS THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON AS THE TREND CONTINUES. ALSO...BUOY 42012 12 MILES SOUTH
OF ORANGE BEACH IS NOW REPORTING SEAS UP TO 5 FEET. THE UPDATED GRIDS
AND CWF PRODUCT HAVE BEEN SENT. /22

.SHORT TERM PUBLIC UPDATE...NOW MUCH CHANGE REQUIRED THIS MORNING FOR
THE PUBLIC FORECAST AS WE ARE EXPECTING LIKELY TO CATEGORY SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WHILE THERE IS A
LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION IN THE WAKE OF THE LARGE CLUSTER OF SHOWERS
EXITING THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC IS
INDICATING ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION EXPANDING IN COVERAGE TO OUR
WEST THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY NOON. DUE THE EXPECTED
RAIN COOLED AIR MASS FROM THE LARGE PRECIP COVERAGE AREA...CAPPED
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AT AROUND 86 DEGREES (SIMILAR
TO YESTERDAY) TO REMOVE MENTION OF UPPER 80S FROM THE POINT AND CLICK
AND ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT. THE UPDATED GRIDS AND ZFP PRODUCT HAVE BEEN
SENT. /22

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 507 AM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014/

..AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST REGION TODAY WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE...

SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...FOR TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT...EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 500 MB HEIGHT
ANALYSIS SHOW A MID LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY PUSHING EASTWARD FROM
SOUTHEAST TEXAS THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE RIVER
VALLEY REGION...WHILE SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
VICINITY OF NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI WITH AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL PORTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWESTWARD
TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS COAST. A VERY MOIST/TROPICAL AIRMASS
RESIDES ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH AXIS AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AVERAGING BETWEEN 2.0 TO AROUND 2.25
INCHES. NOCTURNAL CONVECTION HAS FIRED AS EXPECTED NEAR THE COAST
WITHIN A REGION OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVERNIGHT/EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THE BEST COVERAGE
EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA...TO FAR SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI...AND COASTAL PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND THE
NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE. SOME OF THE HEAVIER CELLS CONTAIN HEAVY
RAIN. IN FACT...THE KMOB AIRPORT HAS RECORDED A LITTLE OVER 1 INCH
OF RAIN DURING THE PAST HOUR AS ONE OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS HAVE
MOVED OVERHEAD.

THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SWING EASTWARD
TODAY...WHILE THE SURFACE BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO STRETCH FROM THE
SOUTHEAST TEXAS COAST TO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND NORTHWEST ALABAMA.
SHORT RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH KEEPING THE PLUME
OF TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY...WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CONTINUING TO RANGE FROM 2.0 TO AROUND
2.25 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR ALONG
WITH THE SHORT RANGE SOLUTIONS FROM THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE CONVECTION DEVELOPING MOSTLY OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR
CWFA THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH DEVELOPMENT SPREADING FARTHER INLAND
GOING INTO THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. WE HAVE TRENDED POPS
SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE VALUES OPTING TO GO AROUND CATEGORICAL
VALUES NEAR THE COAST TODAY...WHILE ALSO MENTIONING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL ACROSS THESE LOCATIONS IN THE WEATHER GRIDS. QPF WAS
TRENDED VERY CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE THIS MORNING. POPS WERE TAPERED
TO THE 50-70 PERCENT RANGE AS YOU HEAD FARTHER NORTH AND WEST ACROSS
THE CWFA TODAY...BUT LATER SHIFTS MAY HAVE TO TREND POPS A LITTLE
HIGHER OVER THESE AREAS IF CONVECTIVE COVERAGE FILLS IN FARTHER
INLAND LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE THAT WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...THERE
IS POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...ESPECIALLY
NEAR COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE CWFA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THERE
WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING TODAY...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN A BROADER SCALE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL CURRENTLY
REMAINS LOW ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH ISSUANCE. WE
TRENDED HIGH TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE COOLER GUIDANCE NUMBERS TODAY
GIVEN THE CLOUDY SKIES AND THE HIGH POTENTIAL OF PRECIPITATION.

OUR FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN ON THE BASE OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH
THROUGH TONIGHT...AND THE HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER AIRMASS WILL
REMAIN INTACT OVER OUR REGION. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE COULD DECREASE
DURING THE EVENING SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...BUT ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED TO BLOSSOM NEAR THE COAST AND OFFSHORE WATERS AGAIN
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WE HAVE TRENDED POPS HIGHER NEAR THE
COAST LATE TONIGHT...WHILE KEEPING AT LEAST CHANCE WORDING FARTHER
INLAND GIVEN THE MOIST AIRMASS. OVERNIGHT MINS WERE TRENDED VERY
CLOSE TO GUIDANCE NUMBERS. /21

THE WET MICROBURST RISK TODAY IS IN THE MODERATE CATEGORY.

SUNDAY...MORE UPPER ENERGY MOVES INTO THE EASTERN CONUS UPPER
TROUGH...PUSHING THE SEMI-STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY SOUTHEASTWARD
TO OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE FA. THIS CONCENTRATES THE
BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FA...AND
LIMITS DAYTIME HEATING...THUS MAX TEMPS TO BELOW SEASONAL. HAVE
LEANED TOWARDS THE COOLER NAM/ECMWF SOLUTION FOR TEMPS AS A RESULT.

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT MOVES INTO THE EASTERN
TROUGH DIGS THE TROUGH MORE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...ALONG WITH
SHIFTING IT EAST A BIT MORE. THE SURFACE BOUNDARY SHIFTS A BIT
FURTHER EASTWARD...SHIFTING THE BEST POPS A BIT MORE
SOUTHEASTWARD....AND LIMITING NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FA.
TEMPS...WITH THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER CONTINUING...A TIGHTER THAN
SEASONAL TEMP RANGE CONTINUES WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND OR A BIT
ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS.

MONDAY...THE EASTERN UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST...WITH THE FA SEEING
A DECREASE IN THE RAIN. GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
REMAINING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FA...HELPING TO PROVIDE
THE FOCUS FOR DAYTIME TSRA. WITH THE DECREASE IN PRECIP COVERAGE AND
ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER...DAYTIME TEMPS AROUND SEASONAL EXPECTED.

LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT ON)...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A SHIFTING AND BUILDING OF
AN UPPER HIGH OVER NM/CO AS MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES EAST ALONG THE
US/CA BORDER AND INTO THE EASTERN UPPER TROUGH. THIS ENERGY SHIFTS
THE NORTHERN END OF THE TROUGH EASTWARD...WHILST LEAVING THE SOUTHERN
END STRETCHING SW OVER THE FA. WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC...A MORE ORGANIZED SOUTHERLY FLOW SETS UP OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC...OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
OVER THE FA WASHES OUT...WITH POPS DROPPING BELOW SEASONAL AND TEMPS
AROUND.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...SOME OF THE ENERGY MOVING OVER HE
US/CA BORDER GETS INTO THE EASTERN TROUGH...DIGGING THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE EASTERN TROUGH MORE...AND WITH THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC BUILDING WESTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN GULF...THE UPPER
HIGH OVER CO/NM SHIFTS WESTWARD TO OVER THE GREAT BASIN. A SURFACE
RIDGE BUILDS WEST OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEX...RESTORING A MORE
ORGANIZED SOUTH...THEN SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER
VALLEY AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. THE FA COMES UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING WEST OVER THE GULF...WITH TEMPS RISING TO ABOVE SEASONAL
LEVELS AND THE CHANCE OF PRECIP DROPPING TO BELOW SEASONAL.

THURSDAY NIGHT ON...AN UPPER LOW MOVING EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN CA
PLAINS FLATTENS THE WESTERN CONUS HIGH...AND DEPENDING UPON WHICH
MODEL ONE LAYS STOCK IN...THE EASTERN TROUGH GETS SHOVED EAST OF THE
FA(GFS) OR BEGINS TO JOIN WITH THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC(ECMWF). THE GFS SCENARIO BUILDS TEMPS WELL ABOVE SEASONAL
WITH POPS A BIT BELOW...WHILST THE ECMWF SCENARIO...KEEPING THE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE FA WHILE WEAKENING IT SIGNIFICANTLY...IS ADVERTISING
TEMPS AROUND SEASONAL WITH POPS A BIT BELOW. THE GFS ENSEMBLES ARE
ADVERTISING A RESULT BETWEEN THEM...SO HAVE BLENDED THE GFS AND
ECMWF SOLUTIONS FOR THE LAST PART OF THE FORECAST.

AVIATION...
[19.12Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION]...WIDESPREAD SHRA WITH A FEW
EMBEDDED TSRA WILL IMPACT THE LOCAL TERMINALS THIS MORNING. THE
HEAVIER CELLS WILL BE CAPABLE OF REDUCING VISIBILITY TO IFR TO LIFR
LEVELS WHILE MVFR TO LOCALIZED IFR CEILINGS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THOUGH
LOCALIZED MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE. PREVAILING WINDS WILL BE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KNOTS AT KMOB AND KBFM...AND AROUND 10
KNOTS AT KPNS. A FEW HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR CONVECTION.
/21

MARINE...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST REGION THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...WHILE A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN THE VICINITY OF THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. A
MOSTLY MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
MARINE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A VERY MOIST AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MARINE AREA...ESPECIALLY THIS
MORNING AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...A LIGHT MAINLY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER THE MARINE AREA
DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. /21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      86  74  89  73  91 /  80  50  50  20  30
PENSACOLA   86  76  88  75  90 /  80  60  60  30  40
DESTIN      84  77  87  76  88 /  80  60  70  50  40
EVERGREEN   85  71  89  69  91 /  70  40  50  20  30
WAYNESBORO  86  70  89  70  92 /  50  30  30  20  20
CAMDEN      85  70  89  70  91 /  60  30  40  20  30
CRESTVIEW   84  73  89  70  92 /  80  50  70  30  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$






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