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000
FXUS64 KMOB 280903
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
403 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...ON THE WEATHER MAPS...A DEEP UPPER
LEVEL TROF EXTENDS FROM THE APPALACHIANS TO THE CENTRAL GULF. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR. THIS IS
REFLECTED IN LATEST 28.00Z RAOB DATA ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
WHICH SHOWS PWAT`S TO AROUND AN INCH. WHEN COMPARING TO CLIMATOLOGY
FOR LATE AUGUST...PWATS ARE WAY DOWN TO AROUND 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. EAST OF THE HIGH LEVEL TROF AXIS...A QUASI-
STATIONARY SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS DRAPED FROM OFF THE
SOUTHEAST US COAST TO DEEP INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF.

FOR TODAY...THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE HIGH LEVEL TROF DEVELOPS INTO
A CUTOFF LOW WHICH MOVES LITTLE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. THE FAR
EASTERN ZONES MAY HAVE A SMALL OPPORTUNITY TO SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS BY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THESE AREAS WILL
BE ON THE FAVORED EAST SIDE OF THE TROF WHERE MODEST LIFT EXISTS AND
A GRADUAL RETURN OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SETS UP AS ATLANTIC MOISTURE
IS PULLED WESTWARD. THE WESTERN HALF OF THE LOCAL AREA LOOKS TO
REMAIN RAINFREE IN THE NEAR TERM. LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW THIS MORNING
BECOMES SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE
LOWER HALF OF THE 90S. LIGHT EAST SOUTHEAST FLOW OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM 65 TO 70 INTERIOR AND 70 TO 75 CLOSER TO THE COAST. /10

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS UNLIKELY

[WEEKEND]...AN UPPER CUTOFF LOW OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO WILL LIFT NORTHWARD OVER THE WEEKEND AND MERGE WITH AN UPPER
SHORTWAVE PASSING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND LOWER GREAT LAKES
REGION. HOWEVER A RESIDUAL UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ON SUNDAY FROM
THE GREAT LAKES TO EASTERN TEXAS...WITH UPPER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS
TO THE WEST AND EAST OF THE TROUGH. A SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL ALLOW
PRECIPITABLE WATER (PW) VALUES TO RANGE FROM 1.4 TO 1.7 INCHES EAST
OF THE TOMBIGBEE RIVER ON SATURDAY...AND BETWEEN 1.1 TO 1.4 INCHES
WEST OF THE RIVER. BY SUNDAY...THE PW VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 1.4 TO
1.7 ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
HAS TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA MAKING LANDFALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIP
OF FLORIDA SUNDAY EVENING AS A TROPICAL STORM.

RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE ON SATURDAY...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS (30-50 PERCENT) EAST OF A LINE FROM BUTLER ALABAMA TO
PENSACOLA FLORIDA...AND ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
WEST OF THIS LINE. SLIGHTLY LOWER COVERAGE IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...
RANGING FROM LITTLE TO NO RAIN ACROSS OUR MISSISSIPPI ZONES TO A 30
PERCENT CHANCE ACROSS OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES. PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG
SHOULD DEVELOP EACH NIGHT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WILL RANGE FROM 86 TO 91 DEGREES.
LOW TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WILL RANGE FROM 68 TO 73 DEGREES
INLAND AREAS...WITH MID 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS. /22

&&

.LONG TERM [MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY]...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
HAS TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST OVER THE SOUTHERN
FLORIDA PENINSULA ON MONDAY...AND OVER THE NORTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA ON TUESDAY. IF THE FORECAST TRACK KEEPS ERIKA TO OUR
EAST...A GRADUAL DECREASE IN MOISTURE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
LONG TERM IS EXPECTED AS WINDS TURN BACK TO A NORTHERN FLOW.
SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ERIKA WILL ALSO CUT DOWN
OUR RAIN CHANCES. FOR NOW HAVE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SOUTHEAST OF I-65 ON MONDAY...WITH NO RAIN TO THE NORTHWEST OF I-65.
ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM...MAINLY DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL MANAGE TO REACH THE LOWER 90S
EACH DAY INLAND AREAS...WITH UPPER 80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL
SECTIONS. /22

&&

.AVIATION... 28.12Z TAF ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST IN THE
NEAR TERM. LIGHT NORTH WINDS THIS MORNING BECOME SOUTHEAST INTO THE
AFTERNOON.
/10

&&

.MARINE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST INTO THE APPALACHIANS
THIS WEEKEND...RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW.
THE SURFACE HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
LITTLE CHANGE IN SEAS. MEANWHILE...TROPICAL STORM ERIKA IS FORECAST
BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TO APPROACH THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
FLORIDA BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND LIFT NORTH NORTHWEST ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA ON MONDAY. ERIKA IS RATHER DISORGANIZED AT
PRESENT. THE FUTURE TRACK...STRENGTH AND STORM STRUCTURE WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW ERIKA INTERACTS WITH AN ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY HIGH SHEAR AND THE HIGH TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA IN
THE NEAR TERM. /10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      90  69  88  69  90 /  05  10  20  20  20
PENSACOLA   90  73  87  73  88 /  10  20  30  20  20
DESTIN      89  75  87  75  88 /  20  30  40  30  30
EVERGREEN   93  70  88  68  90 /  20  20  40  20  20
WAYNESBORO  93  66  89  68  91 /  00  10  20  05  20
CAMDEN      93  70  87  69  90 /  10  10  40  05  20
CRESTVIEW   92  69  88  70  90 /  20  30  40  20  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 280903
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
403 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...ON THE WEATHER MAPS...A DEEP UPPER
LEVEL TROF EXTENDS FROM THE APPALACHIANS TO THE CENTRAL GULF. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR. THIS IS
REFLECTED IN LATEST 28.00Z RAOB DATA ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
WHICH SHOWS PWAT`S TO AROUND AN INCH. WHEN COMPARING TO CLIMATOLOGY
FOR LATE AUGUST...PWATS ARE WAY DOWN TO AROUND 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. EAST OF THE HIGH LEVEL TROF AXIS...A QUASI-
STATIONARY SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS DRAPED FROM OFF THE
SOUTHEAST US COAST TO DEEP INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF.

FOR TODAY...THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE HIGH LEVEL TROF DEVELOPS INTO
A CUTOFF LOW WHICH MOVES LITTLE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. THE FAR
EASTERN ZONES MAY HAVE A SMALL OPPORTUNITY TO SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS BY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THESE AREAS WILL
BE ON THE FAVORED EAST SIDE OF THE TROF WHERE MODEST LIFT EXISTS AND
A GRADUAL RETURN OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SETS UP AS ATLANTIC MOISTURE
IS PULLED WESTWARD. THE WESTERN HALF OF THE LOCAL AREA LOOKS TO
REMAIN RAINFREE IN THE NEAR TERM. LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW THIS MORNING
BECOMES SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE
LOWER HALF OF THE 90S. LIGHT EAST SOUTHEAST FLOW OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM 65 TO 70 INTERIOR AND 70 TO 75 CLOSER TO THE COAST. /10

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS UNLIKELY

[WEEKEND]...AN UPPER CUTOFF LOW OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO WILL LIFT NORTHWARD OVER THE WEEKEND AND MERGE WITH AN UPPER
SHORTWAVE PASSING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND LOWER GREAT LAKES
REGION. HOWEVER A RESIDUAL UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ON SUNDAY FROM
THE GREAT LAKES TO EASTERN TEXAS...WITH UPPER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS
TO THE WEST AND EAST OF THE TROUGH. A SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL ALLOW
PRECIPITABLE WATER (PW) VALUES TO RANGE FROM 1.4 TO 1.7 INCHES EAST
OF THE TOMBIGBEE RIVER ON SATURDAY...AND BETWEEN 1.1 TO 1.4 INCHES
WEST OF THE RIVER. BY SUNDAY...THE PW VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 1.4 TO
1.7 ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
HAS TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA MAKING LANDFALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIP
OF FLORIDA SUNDAY EVENING AS A TROPICAL STORM.

RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE ON SATURDAY...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS (30-50 PERCENT) EAST OF A LINE FROM BUTLER ALABAMA TO
PENSACOLA FLORIDA...AND ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
WEST OF THIS LINE. SLIGHTLY LOWER COVERAGE IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...
RANGING FROM LITTLE TO NO RAIN ACROSS OUR MISSISSIPPI ZONES TO A 30
PERCENT CHANCE ACROSS OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES. PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG
SHOULD DEVELOP EACH NIGHT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WILL RANGE FROM 86 TO 91 DEGREES.
LOW TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WILL RANGE FROM 68 TO 73 DEGREES
INLAND AREAS...WITH MID 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS. /22

&&

.LONG TERM [MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY]...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
HAS TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST OVER THE SOUTHERN
FLORIDA PENINSULA ON MONDAY...AND OVER THE NORTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA ON TUESDAY. IF THE FORECAST TRACK KEEPS ERIKA TO OUR
EAST...A GRADUAL DECREASE IN MOISTURE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
LONG TERM IS EXPECTED AS WINDS TURN BACK TO A NORTHERN FLOW.
SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ERIKA WILL ALSO CUT DOWN
OUR RAIN CHANCES. FOR NOW HAVE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SOUTHEAST OF I-65 ON MONDAY...WITH NO RAIN TO THE NORTHWEST OF I-65.
ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM...MAINLY DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL MANAGE TO REACH THE LOWER 90S
EACH DAY INLAND AREAS...WITH UPPER 80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL
SECTIONS. /22

&&

.AVIATION... 28.12Z TAF ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST IN THE
NEAR TERM. LIGHT NORTH WINDS THIS MORNING BECOME SOUTHEAST INTO THE
AFTERNOON.
/10

&&

.MARINE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST INTO THE APPALACHIANS
THIS WEEKEND...RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW.
THE SURFACE HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
LITTLE CHANGE IN SEAS. MEANWHILE...TROPICAL STORM ERIKA IS FORECAST
BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TO APPROACH THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
FLORIDA BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND LIFT NORTH NORTHWEST ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA ON MONDAY. ERIKA IS RATHER DISORGANIZED AT
PRESENT. THE FUTURE TRACK...STRENGTH AND STORM STRUCTURE WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW ERIKA INTERACTS WITH AN ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY HIGH SHEAR AND THE HIGH TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA IN
THE NEAR TERM. /10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      90  69  88  69  90 /  05  10  20  20  20
PENSACOLA   90  73  87  73  88 /  10  20  30  20  20
DESTIN      89  75  87  75  88 /  20  30  40  30  30
EVERGREEN   93  70  88  68  90 /  20  20  40  20  20
WAYNESBORO  93  66  89  68  91 /  00  10  20  05  20
CAMDEN      93  70  87  69  90 /  10  10  40  05  20
CRESTVIEW   92  69  88  70  90 /  20  30  40  20  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMOB 280433 AAC
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1133 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS SWITCH TO THE SOUTHEAST NEAR 6-8 KNOTS NEAR MIDDAY
FRIDAY. /29

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 903 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/

UPDATE...CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH NO CHANGES PLANNED. /29

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 619 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/

AVIATION...
00Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY ON FRIDAY. /29

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/

SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...FOR TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY...A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING AND LIFTING OUT. A
COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WITH PWAT VALUES WELL UNDER 1 INCH WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS WILL AGAIN ALLOW FOR STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING TO NEAR RECORD LEVELS
AGAIN AT MOBILE (66). A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON
FRIDAY...ALLOWING MOISTURE LEVELS TO SLOWLY INCREASE AND TEMPS TO
WARM BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S. AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA...HOWEVER THE CHANCE IS TOO SMALL TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT
THIS TIME. /13

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...A WEAKLY ORGANIZED UPPER LOW
OVER THE FA OPENS AND BEGINS TO SHIFT NORTH INTO SUNDAY. A STRONG
PIECE OF ENERGY SWIRLING AROUND THE EAST SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WORKS
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TO PUSH
NORTHEASTERN GULF/WESTERN ATLANTIC MOISTURE INLAND OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. WITH THE UPPER DYNAMICS CENTERED
OVER THE FA INITIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT...BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FA...TAPERING OFF AS ONE GOES WEST OVER
THE FA. HAVE WENT SUCH WITH THE FORECAST. FOR TEMPS...HAVE WENT WITH
A TIGHTER THAN SEASONAL TEMP RANGE OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA
DUE TO THE HIGH COVERAGE OF RAIN...GREATER THAN SEASON WEST...WITH
LESS CLOUDS/PRECIP/MOISTURE TO CONTEND WITH.

LONG TERM...(SUNDAY ON)...SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...AS ERIKA
MOVES FROM OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND BEGINS TO MOVE NORTH ALONG THE FL
ATLANTIC COAST...THE NOW UPPER TROUGH OVER THE FA GETS PUSHED
WESTWARD. WITH THE APPROACH OF ERIKA...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW SWITCHES
TO MORE EASTERLY. EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA REMAIN THE
WETTEST...WITH THE HIGHEST MOISTURE LEVELS.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH THE LATEST TRACK OF ERIKA LEANING
TOWARDS THE GFS SOLUTION...HAVE CONTINUED TO EXTRAPOLATE THAT INTO
THE EXPECTED. THIS SOLUTION MOVES ERIKA NORTH ALONG THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD...WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTING FROM EASTERLY TO NORTHERLY,
THE FA COMES UNDER SUPPRESSIVE FLOW WEST OF ERIKA...WITH RAIN CHANCES
DECREASING AND TEMPS RISING TO A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE GFS IS ADVERTISING ERIKA
SLOWING AND MEANDERING THIS TIME PERIOD OVER THE CAROLINA
COAST...KEEPING THE FA UNDER A LESS PRECIP CONDUCIVE REGIME. STILL
HAVE SMALL CHANCES FOR RAIN...BUT BELOW SEASONAL. TEMPS REMAIN A BIT
ABOVE SEASONAL.

MARINE...A WEAK FLOW PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
NORTHERLY FLOW AT NIGHT FOLLOWED BY SOUTHERLY FLOW DURING THE
AFTERNOON. AN EASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      66  89  69  88  69 /  00  05  10  30  20
PENSACOLA   70  88  72  86  71 /  00  05  20  50  30
DESTIN      74  87  73  85  75 /  00  05  30  50  40
EVERGREEN   65  92  67  88  70 /  00  05  20  40  40
WAYNESBORO  63  92  66  90  66 /  00  05  10  30  20
CAMDEN      66  92  68  89  68 /  00  05  20  40  40
CRESTVIEW   64  90  67  86  71 /  00  10  20  50  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMOB 280433 AAC
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1133 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS SWITCH TO THE SOUTHEAST NEAR 6-8 KNOTS NEAR MIDDAY
FRIDAY. /29

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 903 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/

UPDATE...CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH NO CHANGES PLANNED. /29

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 619 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/

AVIATION...
00Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY ON FRIDAY. /29

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/

SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...FOR TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY...A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING AND LIFTING OUT. A
COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WITH PWAT VALUES WELL UNDER 1 INCH WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS WILL AGAIN ALLOW FOR STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING TO NEAR RECORD LEVELS
AGAIN AT MOBILE (66). A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON
FRIDAY...ALLOWING MOISTURE LEVELS TO SLOWLY INCREASE AND TEMPS TO
WARM BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S. AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA...HOWEVER THE CHANCE IS TOO SMALL TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT
THIS TIME. /13

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...A WEAKLY ORGANIZED UPPER LOW
OVER THE FA OPENS AND BEGINS TO SHIFT NORTH INTO SUNDAY. A STRONG
PIECE OF ENERGY SWIRLING AROUND THE EAST SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WORKS
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TO PUSH
NORTHEASTERN GULF/WESTERN ATLANTIC MOISTURE INLAND OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. WITH THE UPPER DYNAMICS CENTERED
OVER THE FA INITIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT...BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FA...TAPERING OFF AS ONE GOES WEST OVER
THE FA. HAVE WENT SUCH WITH THE FORECAST. FOR TEMPS...HAVE WENT WITH
A TIGHTER THAN SEASONAL TEMP RANGE OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA
DUE TO THE HIGH COVERAGE OF RAIN...GREATER THAN SEASON WEST...WITH
LESS CLOUDS/PRECIP/MOISTURE TO CONTEND WITH.

LONG TERM...(SUNDAY ON)...SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...AS ERIKA
MOVES FROM OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND BEGINS TO MOVE NORTH ALONG THE FL
ATLANTIC COAST...THE NOW UPPER TROUGH OVER THE FA GETS PUSHED
WESTWARD. WITH THE APPROACH OF ERIKA...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW SWITCHES
TO MORE EASTERLY. EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA REMAIN THE
WETTEST...WITH THE HIGHEST MOISTURE LEVELS.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH THE LATEST TRACK OF ERIKA LEANING
TOWARDS THE GFS SOLUTION...HAVE CONTINUED TO EXTRAPOLATE THAT INTO
THE EXPECTED. THIS SOLUTION MOVES ERIKA NORTH ALONG THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD...WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTING FROM EASTERLY TO NORTHERLY,
THE FA COMES UNDER SUPPRESSIVE FLOW WEST OF ERIKA...WITH RAIN CHANCES
DECREASING AND TEMPS RISING TO A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE GFS IS ADVERTISING ERIKA
SLOWING AND MEANDERING THIS TIME PERIOD OVER THE CAROLINA
COAST...KEEPING THE FA UNDER A LESS PRECIP CONDUCIVE REGIME. STILL
HAVE SMALL CHANCES FOR RAIN...BUT BELOW SEASONAL. TEMPS REMAIN A BIT
ABOVE SEASONAL.

MARINE...A WEAK FLOW PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
NORTHERLY FLOW AT NIGHT FOLLOWED BY SOUTHERLY FLOW DURING THE
AFTERNOON. AN EASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      66  89  69  88  69 /  00  05  10  30  20
PENSACOLA   70  88  72  86  71 /  00  05  20  50  30
DESTIN      74  87  73  85  75 /  00  05  30  50  40
EVERGREEN   65  92  67  88  70 /  00  05  20  40  40
WAYNESBORO  63  92  66  90  66 /  00  05  10  30  20
CAMDEN      66  92  68  89  68 /  00  05  20  40  40
CRESTVIEW   64  90  67  86  71 /  00  10  20  50  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 280203 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
903 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH NO CHANGES PLANNED. /29

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 619 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/

AVIATION...
00Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY ON FRIDAY. /29

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/

SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...FOR TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY...A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING AND LIFTING OUT. A
COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WITH PWAT VALUES WELL UNDER 1 INCH WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS WILL AGAIN ALLOW FOR STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING TO NEAR RECORD LEVELS
AGAIN AT MOBILE (66). A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON
FRIDAY...ALLOWING MOISTURE LEVELS TO SLOWLY INCREASE AND TEMPS TO
WARM BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S. AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA...HOWEVER THE CHANCE IS TOO SMALL TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT
THIS TIME. /13

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...A WEAKLY ORGANIZED UPPER LOW
OVER THE FA OPENS AND BEGINS TO SHIFT NORTH INTO SUNDAY. A STRONG
PIECE OF ENERGY SWIRLING AROUND THE EAST SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WORKS
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TO PUSH
NORTHEASTERN GULF/WESTERN ATLANTIC MOISTURE INLAND OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. WITH THE UPPER DYNAMICS CENTERED
OVER THE FA INITIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT...BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FA...TAPERING OFF AS ONE GOES WEST OVER
THE FA. HAVE WENT SUCH WITH THE FORECAST. FOR TEMPS...HAVE WENT WITH
A TIGHTER THAN SEASONAL TEMP RANGE OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA
DUE TO THE HIGH COVERAGE OF RAIN...GREATER THAN SEASON WEST...WITH
LESS CLOUDS/PRECIP/MOISTURE TO CONTEND WITH.

LONG TERM...(SUNDAY ON)...SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...AS ERIKA
MOVES FROM OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND BEGINS TO MOVE NORTH ALONG THE FL
ATLANTIC COAST...THE NOW UPPER TROUGH OVER THE FA GETS PUSHED
WESTWARD. WITH THE APPROACH OF ERIKA...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW SWITCHES
TO MORE EASTERLY. EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA REMAIN THE
WETTEST...WITH THE HIGHEST MOISTURE LEVELS.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH THE LATEST TRACK OF ERIKA LEANING
TOWARDS THE GFS SOLUTION...HAVE CONTINUED TO EXTRAPOLATE THAT INTO
THE EXPECTED. THIS SOLUTION MOVES ERIKA NORTH ALONG THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD...WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTING FROM EASTERLY TO NORTHERLY,
THE FA COMES UNDER SUPPRESSIVE FLOW WEST OF ERIKA...WITH RAIN CHANCES
DECREASING AND TEMPS RISING TO A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE GFS IS ADVERTISING ERIKA
SLOWING AND MEANDERING THIS TIME PERIOD OVER THE CAROLINA
COAST...KEEPING THE FA UNDER A LESS PRECIP CONDUCIVE REGIME. STILL
HAVE SMALL CHANCES FOR RAIN...BUT BELOW SEASONAL. TEMPS REMAIN A BIT
ABOVE SEASONAL.

MARINE...A WEAK FLOW PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
NORTHERLY FLOW AT NIGHT FOLLOWED BY SOUTHERLY FLOW DURING THE
AFTERNOON. AN EASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      66  89  69  88  69 /  00  05  10  30  20
PENSACOLA   70  88  72  86  71 /  00  05  20  50  30
DESTIN      74  87  73  85  75 /  00  05  30  50  40
EVERGREEN   65  92  67  88  70 /  00  05  20  40  40
WAYNESBORO  63  92  66  90  66 /  00  05  10  30  20
CAMDEN      66  92  68  89  68 /  00  05  20  40  40
CRESTVIEW   64  90  67  86  71 /  00  10  20  50  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 280203 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
903 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH NO CHANGES PLANNED. /29

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 619 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/

AVIATION...
00Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY ON FRIDAY. /29

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/

SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...FOR TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY...A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING AND LIFTING OUT. A
COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WITH PWAT VALUES WELL UNDER 1 INCH WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS WILL AGAIN ALLOW FOR STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING TO NEAR RECORD LEVELS
AGAIN AT MOBILE (66). A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON
FRIDAY...ALLOWING MOISTURE LEVELS TO SLOWLY INCREASE AND TEMPS TO
WARM BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S. AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA...HOWEVER THE CHANCE IS TOO SMALL TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT
THIS TIME. /13

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...A WEAKLY ORGANIZED UPPER LOW
OVER THE FA OPENS AND BEGINS TO SHIFT NORTH INTO SUNDAY. A STRONG
PIECE OF ENERGY SWIRLING AROUND THE EAST SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WORKS
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TO PUSH
NORTHEASTERN GULF/WESTERN ATLANTIC MOISTURE INLAND OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. WITH THE UPPER DYNAMICS CENTERED
OVER THE FA INITIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT...BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FA...TAPERING OFF AS ONE GOES WEST OVER
THE FA. HAVE WENT SUCH WITH THE FORECAST. FOR TEMPS...HAVE WENT WITH
A TIGHTER THAN SEASONAL TEMP RANGE OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA
DUE TO THE HIGH COVERAGE OF RAIN...GREATER THAN SEASON WEST...WITH
LESS CLOUDS/PRECIP/MOISTURE TO CONTEND WITH.

LONG TERM...(SUNDAY ON)...SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...AS ERIKA
MOVES FROM OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND BEGINS TO MOVE NORTH ALONG THE FL
ATLANTIC COAST...THE NOW UPPER TROUGH OVER THE FA GETS PUSHED
WESTWARD. WITH THE APPROACH OF ERIKA...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW SWITCHES
TO MORE EASTERLY. EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA REMAIN THE
WETTEST...WITH THE HIGHEST MOISTURE LEVELS.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH THE LATEST TRACK OF ERIKA LEANING
TOWARDS THE GFS SOLUTION...HAVE CONTINUED TO EXTRAPOLATE THAT INTO
THE EXPECTED. THIS SOLUTION MOVES ERIKA NORTH ALONG THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD...WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTING FROM EASTERLY TO NORTHERLY,
THE FA COMES UNDER SUPPRESSIVE FLOW WEST OF ERIKA...WITH RAIN CHANCES
DECREASING AND TEMPS RISING TO A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE GFS IS ADVERTISING ERIKA
SLOWING AND MEANDERING THIS TIME PERIOD OVER THE CAROLINA
COAST...KEEPING THE FA UNDER A LESS PRECIP CONDUCIVE REGIME. STILL
HAVE SMALL CHANCES FOR RAIN...BUT BELOW SEASONAL. TEMPS REMAIN A BIT
ABOVE SEASONAL.

MARINE...A WEAK FLOW PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
NORTHERLY FLOW AT NIGHT FOLLOWED BY SOUTHERLY FLOW DURING THE
AFTERNOON. AN EASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      66  89  69  88  69 /  00  05  10  30  20
PENSACOLA   70  88  72  86  71 /  00  05  20  50  30
DESTIN      74  87  73  85  75 /  00  05  30  50  40
EVERGREEN   65  92  67  88  70 /  00  05  20  40  40
WAYNESBORO  63  92  66  90  66 /  00  05  10  30  20
CAMDEN      66  92  68  89  68 /  00  05  20  40  40
CRESTVIEW   64  90  67  86  71 /  00  10  20  50  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMOB 280203 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
903 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH NO CHANGES PLANNED. /29

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 619 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/

AVIATION...
00Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY ON FRIDAY. /29

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/

SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...FOR TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY...A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING AND LIFTING OUT. A
COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WITH PWAT VALUES WELL UNDER 1 INCH WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS WILL AGAIN ALLOW FOR STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING TO NEAR RECORD LEVELS
AGAIN AT MOBILE (66). A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON
FRIDAY...ALLOWING MOISTURE LEVELS TO SLOWLY INCREASE AND TEMPS TO
WARM BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S. AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA...HOWEVER THE CHANCE IS TOO SMALL TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT
THIS TIME. /13

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...A WEAKLY ORGANIZED UPPER LOW
OVER THE FA OPENS AND BEGINS TO SHIFT NORTH INTO SUNDAY. A STRONG
PIECE OF ENERGY SWIRLING AROUND THE EAST SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WORKS
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TO PUSH
NORTHEASTERN GULF/WESTERN ATLANTIC MOISTURE INLAND OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. WITH THE UPPER DYNAMICS CENTERED
OVER THE FA INITIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT...BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FA...TAPERING OFF AS ONE GOES WEST OVER
THE FA. HAVE WENT SUCH WITH THE FORECAST. FOR TEMPS...HAVE WENT WITH
A TIGHTER THAN SEASONAL TEMP RANGE OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA
DUE TO THE HIGH COVERAGE OF RAIN...GREATER THAN SEASON WEST...WITH
LESS CLOUDS/PRECIP/MOISTURE TO CONTEND WITH.

LONG TERM...(SUNDAY ON)...SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...AS ERIKA
MOVES FROM OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND BEGINS TO MOVE NORTH ALONG THE FL
ATLANTIC COAST...THE NOW UPPER TROUGH OVER THE FA GETS PUSHED
WESTWARD. WITH THE APPROACH OF ERIKA...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW SWITCHES
TO MORE EASTERLY. EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA REMAIN THE
WETTEST...WITH THE HIGHEST MOISTURE LEVELS.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH THE LATEST TRACK OF ERIKA LEANING
TOWARDS THE GFS SOLUTION...HAVE CONTINUED TO EXTRAPOLATE THAT INTO
THE EXPECTED. THIS SOLUTION MOVES ERIKA NORTH ALONG THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD...WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTING FROM EASTERLY TO NORTHERLY,
THE FA COMES UNDER SUPPRESSIVE FLOW WEST OF ERIKA...WITH RAIN CHANCES
DECREASING AND TEMPS RISING TO A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE GFS IS ADVERTISING ERIKA
SLOWING AND MEANDERING THIS TIME PERIOD OVER THE CAROLINA
COAST...KEEPING THE FA UNDER A LESS PRECIP CONDUCIVE REGIME. STILL
HAVE SMALL CHANCES FOR RAIN...BUT BELOW SEASONAL. TEMPS REMAIN A BIT
ABOVE SEASONAL.

MARINE...A WEAK FLOW PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
NORTHERLY FLOW AT NIGHT FOLLOWED BY SOUTHERLY FLOW DURING THE
AFTERNOON. AN EASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      66  89  69  88  69 /  00  05  10  30  20
PENSACOLA   70  88  72  86  71 /  00  05  20  50  30
DESTIN      74  87  73  85  75 /  00  05  30  50  40
EVERGREEN   65  92  67  88  70 /  00  05  20  40  40
WAYNESBORO  63  92  66  90  66 /  00  05  10  30  20
CAMDEN      66  92  68  89  68 /  00  05  20  40  40
CRESTVIEW   64  90  67  86  71 /  00  10  20  50  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 272319 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
619 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY ON FRIDAY. /29

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/

SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...FOR TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY...A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING AND LIFTING OUT. A
COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WITH PWAT VALUES WELL UNDER 1 INCH WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS WILL AGAIN ALLOW FOR STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING TO NEAR RECORD LEVELS
AGAIN AT MOBILE (66). A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON
FRIDAY...ALLOWING MOISTURE LEVELS TO SLOWLY INCREASE AND TEMPS TO
WARM BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S. AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA...HOWEVER THE CHANCE IS TOO SMALL TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT
THIS TIME. /13

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...A WEAKLY ORGANIZED UPPER LOW
OVER THE FA OPENS AND BEGINS TO SHIFT NORTH INTO SUNDAY. A STRONG
PIECE OF ENERGY SWIRLING AROUND THE EAST SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WORKS
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TO PUSH
NORTHEASTERN GULF/WESTERN ATLANTIC MOISTURE INLAND OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. WITH THE UPPER DYNAMICS CENTERED
OVER THE FA INITIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT...BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FA...TAPERING OFF AS ONE GOES WEST OVER
THE FA. HAVE WENT SUCH WITH THE FORECAST. FOR TEMPS...HAVE WENT WITH
A TIGHTER THAN SEASONAL TEMP RANGE OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA
DUE TO THE HIGH COVERAGE OF RAIN...GREATER THAN SEASON WEST...WITH
LESS CLOUDS/PRECIP/MOISTURE TO CONTEND WITH.

LONG TERM...(SUNDAY ON)...SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...AS ERIKA
MOVES FROM OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND BEGINS TO MOVE NORTH ALONG THE FL
ATLANTIC COAST...THE NOW UPPER TROUGH OVER THE FA GETS PUSHED
WESTWARD. WITH THE APPROACH OF ERIKA...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW SWITCHES
TO MORE EASTERLY. EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA REMAIN THE
WETTEST...WITH THE HIGHEST MOISTURE LEVELS.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH THE LATEST TRACK OF ERIKA LEANING
TOWARDS THE GFS SOLUTION...HAVE CONTINUED TO EXTRAPOLATE THAT INTO
THE EXPECTED. THIS SOLUTION MOVES ERIKA NORTH ALONG THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD...WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTING FROM EASTERLY TO NORTHERLY,
THE FA COMES UNDER SUPPRESSIVE FLOW WEST OF ERIKA...WITH RAIN CHANCES
DECREASING AND TEMPS RISING TO A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE GFS IS ADVERTISING ERIKA
SLOWING AND MEANDERING THIS TIME PERIOD OVER THE CAROLINA
COAST...KEEPING THE FA UNDER A LESS PRECIP CONDUCIVE REGIME. STILL
HAVE SMALL CHANCES FOR RAIN...BUT BELOW SEASONAL. TEMPS REMAIN A BIT
ABOVE SEASONAL.

MARINE...A WEAK FLOW PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
NORTHERLY FLOW AT NIGHT FOLLOWED BY SOUTHERLY FLOW DURING THE
AFTERNOON. AN EASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      66  89  69  88  69 /  00  05  10  30  20
PENSACOLA   70  88  72  86  71 /  00  05  20  50  30
DESTIN      74  87  73  85  75 /  00  05  30  50  40
EVERGREEN   65  92  67  88  70 /  00  05  20  40  40
WAYNESBORO  63  92  66  90  66 /  00  05  10  30  20
CAMDEN      66  92  68  89  68 /  00  05  20  40  40
CRESTVIEW   64  90  67  86  71 /  00  10  20  50  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 272319 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
619 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY ON FRIDAY. /29

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/

SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...FOR TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY...A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING AND LIFTING OUT. A
COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WITH PWAT VALUES WELL UNDER 1 INCH WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS WILL AGAIN ALLOW FOR STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING TO NEAR RECORD LEVELS
AGAIN AT MOBILE (66). A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON
FRIDAY...ALLOWING MOISTURE LEVELS TO SLOWLY INCREASE AND TEMPS TO
WARM BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S. AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA...HOWEVER THE CHANCE IS TOO SMALL TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT
THIS TIME. /13

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...A WEAKLY ORGANIZED UPPER LOW
OVER THE FA OPENS AND BEGINS TO SHIFT NORTH INTO SUNDAY. A STRONG
PIECE OF ENERGY SWIRLING AROUND THE EAST SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WORKS
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TO PUSH
NORTHEASTERN GULF/WESTERN ATLANTIC MOISTURE INLAND OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. WITH THE UPPER DYNAMICS CENTERED
OVER THE FA INITIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT...BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FA...TAPERING OFF AS ONE GOES WEST OVER
THE FA. HAVE WENT SUCH WITH THE FORECAST. FOR TEMPS...HAVE WENT WITH
A TIGHTER THAN SEASONAL TEMP RANGE OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA
DUE TO THE HIGH COVERAGE OF RAIN...GREATER THAN SEASON WEST...WITH
LESS CLOUDS/PRECIP/MOISTURE TO CONTEND WITH.

LONG TERM...(SUNDAY ON)...SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...AS ERIKA
MOVES FROM OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND BEGINS TO MOVE NORTH ALONG THE FL
ATLANTIC COAST...THE NOW UPPER TROUGH OVER THE FA GETS PUSHED
WESTWARD. WITH THE APPROACH OF ERIKA...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW SWITCHES
TO MORE EASTERLY. EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA REMAIN THE
WETTEST...WITH THE HIGHEST MOISTURE LEVELS.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH THE LATEST TRACK OF ERIKA LEANING
TOWARDS THE GFS SOLUTION...HAVE CONTINUED TO EXTRAPOLATE THAT INTO
THE EXPECTED. THIS SOLUTION MOVES ERIKA NORTH ALONG THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD...WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTING FROM EASTERLY TO NORTHERLY,
THE FA COMES UNDER SUPPRESSIVE FLOW WEST OF ERIKA...WITH RAIN CHANCES
DECREASING AND TEMPS RISING TO A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE GFS IS ADVERTISING ERIKA
SLOWING AND MEANDERING THIS TIME PERIOD OVER THE CAROLINA
COAST...KEEPING THE FA UNDER A LESS PRECIP CONDUCIVE REGIME. STILL
HAVE SMALL CHANCES FOR RAIN...BUT BELOW SEASONAL. TEMPS REMAIN A BIT
ABOVE SEASONAL.

MARINE...A WEAK FLOW PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
NORTHERLY FLOW AT NIGHT FOLLOWED BY SOUTHERLY FLOW DURING THE
AFTERNOON. AN EASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      66  89  69  88  69 /  00  05  10  30  20
PENSACOLA   70  88  72  86  71 /  00  05  20  50  30
DESTIN      74  87  73  85  75 /  00  05  30  50  40
EVERGREEN   65  92  67  88  70 /  00  05  20  40  40
WAYNESBORO  63  92  66  90  66 /  00  05  10  30  20
CAMDEN      66  92  68  89  68 /  00  05  20  40  40
CRESTVIEW   64  90  67  86  71 /  00  10  20  50  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMOB 272319 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
619 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY ON FRIDAY. /29

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/

SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...FOR TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY...A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING AND LIFTING OUT. A
COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WITH PWAT VALUES WELL UNDER 1 INCH WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS WILL AGAIN ALLOW FOR STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING TO NEAR RECORD LEVELS
AGAIN AT MOBILE (66). A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON
FRIDAY...ALLOWING MOISTURE LEVELS TO SLOWLY INCREASE AND TEMPS TO
WARM BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S. AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA...HOWEVER THE CHANCE IS TOO SMALL TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT
THIS TIME. /13

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...A WEAKLY ORGANIZED UPPER LOW
OVER THE FA OPENS AND BEGINS TO SHIFT NORTH INTO SUNDAY. A STRONG
PIECE OF ENERGY SWIRLING AROUND THE EAST SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WORKS
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TO PUSH
NORTHEASTERN GULF/WESTERN ATLANTIC MOISTURE INLAND OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. WITH THE UPPER DYNAMICS CENTERED
OVER THE FA INITIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT...BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FA...TAPERING OFF AS ONE GOES WEST OVER
THE FA. HAVE WENT SUCH WITH THE FORECAST. FOR TEMPS...HAVE WENT WITH
A TIGHTER THAN SEASONAL TEMP RANGE OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA
DUE TO THE HIGH COVERAGE OF RAIN...GREATER THAN SEASON WEST...WITH
LESS CLOUDS/PRECIP/MOISTURE TO CONTEND WITH.

LONG TERM...(SUNDAY ON)...SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...AS ERIKA
MOVES FROM OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND BEGINS TO MOVE NORTH ALONG THE FL
ATLANTIC COAST...THE NOW UPPER TROUGH OVER THE FA GETS PUSHED
WESTWARD. WITH THE APPROACH OF ERIKA...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW SWITCHES
TO MORE EASTERLY. EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA REMAIN THE
WETTEST...WITH THE HIGHEST MOISTURE LEVELS.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH THE LATEST TRACK OF ERIKA LEANING
TOWARDS THE GFS SOLUTION...HAVE CONTINUED TO EXTRAPOLATE THAT INTO
THE EXPECTED. THIS SOLUTION MOVES ERIKA NORTH ALONG THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD...WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTING FROM EASTERLY TO NORTHERLY,
THE FA COMES UNDER SUPPRESSIVE FLOW WEST OF ERIKA...WITH RAIN CHANCES
DECREASING AND TEMPS RISING TO A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE GFS IS ADVERTISING ERIKA
SLOWING AND MEANDERING THIS TIME PERIOD OVER THE CAROLINA
COAST...KEEPING THE FA UNDER A LESS PRECIP CONDUCIVE REGIME. STILL
HAVE SMALL CHANCES FOR RAIN...BUT BELOW SEASONAL. TEMPS REMAIN A BIT
ABOVE SEASONAL.

MARINE...A WEAK FLOW PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
NORTHERLY FLOW AT NIGHT FOLLOWED BY SOUTHERLY FLOW DURING THE
AFTERNOON. AN EASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      66  89  69  88  69 /  00  05  10  30  20
PENSACOLA   70  88  72  86  71 /  00  05  20  50  30
DESTIN      74  87  73  85  75 /  00  05  30  50  40
EVERGREEN   65  92  67  88  70 /  00  05  20  40  40
WAYNESBORO  63  92  66  90  66 /  00  05  10  30  20
CAMDEN      66  92  68  89  68 /  00  05  20  40  40
CRESTVIEW   64  90  67  86  71 /  00  10  20  50  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMOB 272319 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
619 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY ON FRIDAY. /29

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/

SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...FOR TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY...A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING AND LIFTING OUT. A
COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WITH PWAT VALUES WELL UNDER 1 INCH WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS WILL AGAIN ALLOW FOR STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING TO NEAR RECORD LEVELS
AGAIN AT MOBILE (66). A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON
FRIDAY...ALLOWING MOISTURE LEVELS TO SLOWLY INCREASE AND TEMPS TO
WARM BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S. AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA...HOWEVER THE CHANCE IS TOO SMALL TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT
THIS TIME. /13

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...A WEAKLY ORGANIZED UPPER LOW
OVER THE FA OPENS AND BEGINS TO SHIFT NORTH INTO SUNDAY. A STRONG
PIECE OF ENERGY SWIRLING AROUND THE EAST SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WORKS
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TO PUSH
NORTHEASTERN GULF/WESTERN ATLANTIC MOISTURE INLAND OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. WITH THE UPPER DYNAMICS CENTERED
OVER THE FA INITIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT...BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FA...TAPERING OFF AS ONE GOES WEST OVER
THE FA. HAVE WENT SUCH WITH THE FORECAST. FOR TEMPS...HAVE WENT WITH
A TIGHTER THAN SEASONAL TEMP RANGE OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA
DUE TO THE HIGH COVERAGE OF RAIN...GREATER THAN SEASON WEST...WITH
LESS CLOUDS/PRECIP/MOISTURE TO CONTEND WITH.

LONG TERM...(SUNDAY ON)...SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...AS ERIKA
MOVES FROM OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND BEGINS TO MOVE NORTH ALONG THE FL
ATLANTIC COAST...THE NOW UPPER TROUGH OVER THE FA GETS PUSHED
WESTWARD. WITH THE APPROACH OF ERIKA...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW SWITCHES
TO MORE EASTERLY. EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA REMAIN THE
WETTEST...WITH THE HIGHEST MOISTURE LEVELS.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH THE LATEST TRACK OF ERIKA LEANING
TOWARDS THE GFS SOLUTION...HAVE CONTINUED TO EXTRAPOLATE THAT INTO
THE EXPECTED. THIS SOLUTION MOVES ERIKA NORTH ALONG THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD...WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTING FROM EASTERLY TO NORTHERLY,
THE FA COMES UNDER SUPPRESSIVE FLOW WEST OF ERIKA...WITH RAIN CHANCES
DECREASING AND TEMPS RISING TO A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE GFS IS ADVERTISING ERIKA
SLOWING AND MEANDERING THIS TIME PERIOD OVER THE CAROLINA
COAST...KEEPING THE FA UNDER A LESS PRECIP CONDUCIVE REGIME. STILL
HAVE SMALL CHANCES FOR RAIN...BUT BELOW SEASONAL. TEMPS REMAIN A BIT
ABOVE SEASONAL.

MARINE...A WEAK FLOW PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
NORTHERLY FLOW AT NIGHT FOLLOWED BY SOUTHERLY FLOW DURING THE
AFTERNOON. AN EASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      66  89  69  88  69 /  00  05  10  30  20
PENSACOLA   70  88  72  86  71 /  00  05  20  50  30
DESTIN      74  87  73  85  75 /  00  05  30  50  40
EVERGREEN   65  92  67  88  70 /  00  05  20  40  40
WAYNESBORO  63  92  66  90  66 /  00  05  10  30  20
CAMDEN      66  92  68  89  68 /  00  05  20  40  40
CRESTVIEW   64  90  67  86  71 /  00  10  20  50  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 272048
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
348 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...FOR TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY...A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY
WEAKENING AND LIFTING OUT. A COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WITH
PWAT VALUES WELL UNDER 1 INCH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS
WILL AGAIN ALLOW FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT WITH LOWS
FALLING TO NEAR RECORD LEVELS AGAIN AT MOBILE (66). A LIGHT
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON FRIDAY...ALLOWING MOISTURE LEVELS TO
SLOWLY INCREASE AND TEMPS TO WARM BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOW
90S. AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...HOWEVER THE CHANCE IS TOO SMALL TO
INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. /13

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...A WEAKLY ORGANIZED UPPER LOW
OVER THE FA OPENS AND BEGINS TO SHIFT NORTH INTO SUNDAY. A STRONG
PIECE OF ENERGY SWIRLING AROUND THE EAST SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WORKS
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TO PUSH
NORTHEASTERN GULF/WESTERN ATLANTIC MOISTURE INLAND OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. WITH THE UPPER DYNAMICS CENTERED
OVER THE FA INITIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT...BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FA...TAPERING OFF AS ONE GOES WEST OVER
THE FA. HAVE WENT SUCH WITH THE FORECAST. FOR TEMPS...HAVE WENT WITH
A TIGHTER THAN SEASONAL TEMP RANGE OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA
DUE TO THE HIGH COVERAGE OF RAIN...GREATER THAN SEASON WEST...WITH
LESS CLOUDS/PRECIP/MOISTURE TO CONTEND WITH.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY ON)...SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...AS ERIKA
MOVES FROM OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND BEGINS TO MOVE NORTH ALONG THE FL
ATLANTIC COAST...THE NOW UPPER TROUGH OVER THE FA GETS PUSHED
WESTWARD. WITH THE APPROACH OF ERIKA...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW SWITCHES
TO MORE EASTERLY. EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA REMAIN THE
WETTEST...WITH THE HIGHEST MOISTURE LEVELS.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH THE LATEST TRACK OF ERIKA LEANING
TOWARDS THE GFS SOLUTION...HAVE CONTINUED TO EXTRAPOLATE THAT INTO
THE EXPECTED. THIS SOLUTION MOVES ERIKA NORTH ALONG THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD...WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTING FROM EASTERLY TO NORTHERLY,
THE FA COMES UNDER SUPPRESSIVE FLOW WEST OF ERIKA...WITH RAIN CHANCES
DECREASING AND TEMPS RISING TO A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE GFS IS ADVERTISING ERIKA
SLOWING AND MEANDERING THIS TIME PERIOD OVER THE CAROLINA
COAST...KEEPING THE FA UNDER A LESS PRECIP CONDUCIVE REGIME. STILL
HAVE SMALL CHANCES FOR RAIN...BUT BELOW SEASONAL. TEMPS REMAIN A BIT
ABOVE SEASONAL.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK FLOW PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
NORTHERLY FLOW AT NIGHT FOLLOWED BY SOUTHERLY FLOW DURING THE
AFTERNOON. AN EASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      66  89  69  88  69 /  00  05  10  30  30
PENSACOLA   70  88  72  86  71 /  00  05  20  50  40
DESTIN      74  87  73  85  75 /  00  05  30  50  50
EVERGREEN   65  92  67  87  70 /  00  05  20  40  50
WAYNESBORO  63  92  66  90  66 /  00  05  10  30  40
CAMDEN      66  92  68  89  68 /  00  05  20  40  50
CRESTVIEW   64  90  67  86  71 /  00  10  20  50  50

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

13/16




000
FXUS64 KMOB 272048
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
348 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...FOR TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY...A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY
WEAKENING AND LIFTING OUT. A COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WITH
PWAT VALUES WELL UNDER 1 INCH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS
WILL AGAIN ALLOW FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT WITH LOWS
FALLING TO NEAR RECORD LEVELS AGAIN AT MOBILE (66). A LIGHT
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON FRIDAY...ALLOWING MOISTURE LEVELS TO
SLOWLY INCREASE AND TEMPS TO WARM BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOW
90S. AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...HOWEVER THE CHANCE IS TOO SMALL TO
INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. /13

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...A WEAKLY ORGANIZED UPPER LOW
OVER THE FA OPENS AND BEGINS TO SHIFT NORTH INTO SUNDAY. A STRONG
PIECE OF ENERGY SWIRLING AROUND THE EAST SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WORKS
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TO PUSH
NORTHEASTERN GULF/WESTERN ATLANTIC MOISTURE INLAND OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. WITH THE UPPER DYNAMICS CENTERED
OVER THE FA INITIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT...BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FA...TAPERING OFF AS ONE GOES WEST OVER
THE FA. HAVE WENT SUCH WITH THE FORECAST. FOR TEMPS...HAVE WENT WITH
A TIGHTER THAN SEASONAL TEMP RANGE OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA
DUE TO THE HIGH COVERAGE OF RAIN...GREATER THAN SEASON WEST...WITH
LESS CLOUDS/PRECIP/MOISTURE TO CONTEND WITH.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY ON)...SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...AS ERIKA
MOVES FROM OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND BEGINS TO MOVE NORTH ALONG THE FL
ATLANTIC COAST...THE NOW UPPER TROUGH OVER THE FA GETS PUSHED
WESTWARD. WITH THE APPROACH OF ERIKA...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW SWITCHES
TO MORE EASTERLY. EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA REMAIN THE
WETTEST...WITH THE HIGHEST MOISTURE LEVELS.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH THE LATEST TRACK OF ERIKA LEANING
TOWARDS THE GFS SOLUTION...HAVE CONTINUED TO EXTRAPOLATE THAT INTO
THE EXPECTED. THIS SOLUTION MOVES ERIKA NORTH ALONG THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD...WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTING FROM EASTERLY TO NORTHERLY,
THE FA COMES UNDER SUPPRESSIVE FLOW WEST OF ERIKA...WITH RAIN CHANCES
DECREASING AND TEMPS RISING TO A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE GFS IS ADVERTISING ERIKA
SLOWING AND MEANDERING THIS TIME PERIOD OVER THE CAROLINA
COAST...KEEPING THE FA UNDER A LESS PRECIP CONDUCIVE REGIME. STILL
HAVE SMALL CHANCES FOR RAIN...BUT BELOW SEASONAL. TEMPS REMAIN A BIT
ABOVE SEASONAL.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK FLOW PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
NORTHERLY FLOW AT NIGHT FOLLOWED BY SOUTHERLY FLOW DURING THE
AFTERNOON. AN EASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      66  89  69  88  69 /  00  05  10  30  30
PENSACOLA   70  88  72  86  71 /  00  05  20  50  40
DESTIN      74  87  73  85  75 /  00  05  30  50  50
EVERGREEN   65  92  67  87  70 /  00  05  20  40  50
WAYNESBORO  63  92  66  90  66 /  00  05  10  30  40
CAMDEN      66  92  68  89  68 /  00  05  20  40  50
CRESTVIEW   64  90  67  86  71 /  00  10  20  50  50

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

13/16





000
FXUS64 KMOB 271745 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1245 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. /13


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 713 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/

UPDATE...A RECORD LOW OF 65 HAS BEEN MET IN PENSACOLA THIS MORNING
WHICH BEATS THE OLD RECORD OF 66 SET IN 1958. THE RECORD LOW FOR
MOBILE WAS TIED AT 62 WHICH WAS ALSO SET IN 1958. 32/EE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 507 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/

SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO
BE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH A MID TO UPPER TROF MAINTAINING STRENGTH
ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION AND LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY
THROUGH THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUALLY WEAKENING TREND
BEGINNING BY EARLY FRI MORNING. WITH THIS PATTERN EXPECT ANOTHER
ROUND OF DRY SUNNY WEATHER TODAY AND CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH MAINLY
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS NEAR THE SFC...THOUGH STILL RUNNING A DEGREE
OR TWO BELOW THE CURRENT 00Z MAV GUIDANCE. LATEST THICKNESS VALUES
IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS REASONING WITH 1000 TO 500
THICKNESS VALUES CHANGING LITTLE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO WITH
LIGHT WINDS POSSIBLY DECOUPLING IN SOME AREAS ESPECIALLY WELL TO THE
NORTH COMBINED WITH SURFACE DEWPTS CLIMBING TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
60S MOST INLAND AREAS COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG FORMING AFTER
MIDNIGHT LINGERING UNTIL AROUND 12Z SAT MORNING.

AS FOR TEMPS STILL FLIRTING WITH MORE RECORD LOWS THIS MORNING FOR
BOTH MOBILE AND PENSACOLA INCLUDING MOST INLAND AREAS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE RECORD LOW FOR TODAY FOR MOBILE IS CURRENTLY 62
SET IN 1958 AND 66 FOR PENSACOLA ALSO SET IN 1958. FOR TODAY WILL
LEAN TOWARDS THE COOLER MET GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY...MID TO UPPER
80S FOR AREAS GENERALLY WEST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR AND THE UPPER 80S
TO AROUND 90 TO THE EAST...AND THE COOLER MAV TEMPS FOR TONIGHT
MAINLY DUE TO COOLER DRIER AIR STILL ADVECTING SOUTHWARDS OVER THE
REGION. FOR TOMORROW MORNING A SIMILAR PATTERN CONTINUES ESPECIALLY
FOR MOBILE WHERE THE RECORD LOW IS 66 FOR THE 28TH AND 67 FOR
PENSACOLA. CURRENT FORECAST TEMPS FOR TONIGHT ARE 66 FOR
MOBILE...AND 70 FOR PENSACOLA. ELSEWHERE IN THE FORECAST AREA LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND
THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. 32/EE

[FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT]...A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN SITUATED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM. TWO LARGE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEMS...ONE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND THE OTHER CENTERED OVER
THE SOUTHWEST U.S. / NORTHERN MEXICO BORDER...WITH A SMALL RIDGE
EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD TO THE UPPER MIDWEST...WILL ALSO PERSIST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM. HOWEVER...THIS UPPER RIDGE
WILL QUICKLY BREAKDOWN THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST OUT OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS PASSES
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST.

MEANWHILE A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA ALL THE WAY TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FRIDAY
MORNING. AN UPPER CUTOFF LOW SHOULD FORM OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF
OF MEXICO ON FRIDAY AS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH
BECOMES DETACHED FROM THE NORTHERN PORTION. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE TROUGH WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC ON
FRIDAY AND DEAMPLIFY. THE UPPER CUTOFF LOW WILL THEN LIFT NORTHWARD
ON SATURDAY AND MERGE WITH THE SHORTWAVE PASSING NORTH OF THE REGION.

THE DRY AIR MASS WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO TRANSITION BACK TO THE A MORE
MOIST AIR MASS COURTESY OF AN INCREASING DEEP SOUTHERN WIND FLOW.
PRECIPITABLE WATER (PW) VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 0.9 TO 1.1 INCHES
FRIDAY MORNING. MOST OF THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL OCCUR EAST OF
THE TOMBIGBEE RIVER...WITH PW VALUES RANGING FROM 1.7 TO 1.9 INCHES
BY NOON SATURDAY. WEST OF THE TOMBIGBEE RIVER THE PW VALUES WILL
INCREASE TO BETWEEN 1.2 TO 1.6 INCHES. PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG SHOULD
DEVELOP EACH NIGHT.

ADDED A FEW POP-UP SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE FORECAST ACROSS OUR FAR
EASTERN ZONES FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BUT THE BIGGEST INCREASE IN RAIN
CHANCES WILL OCCUR ON SATURDAY...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
EAST OF THE TOMBIGBEE RIVER. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEST OF THE TOMBIGBEE RIVER.

HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOONS WILL RANGE
FROM 87 TO 92 DEGREES...WITH MID 80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL
SECTIONS. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 66 TO 72
DEGREES INLAND AREAS...WITH MID 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL
SECTIONS. /22

LONG TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER HAS TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA MOVING NORTHWEST OVER THE
CARIBBEAN ISLANDS ON SUNDAY...AND JUST OFF THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA
ON MONDAY. LOCALLY WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE ADEQUATE MOISTURE ACROSS
THE REGION ON SUNDAY WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS.
IF THE FORECAST TRACK KEEPS ERIKA TO OUR EAST...A GRADUAL DECREASE
IN MOISTURE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM IS EXPECTED AS
WINDS TURN BACK TO A NORTHERN FLOW. SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF ERIKA WILL ALSO CUT DOWN OUR RAIN CHANCES...BUT FOR NOW
HAVE AT ISOLATED MONDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
STILL MANAGE TO REACH THE LOWER 90S EACH DAY INLAND AREAS...WITH
UPPER 80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS. /22

MARINE...A MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS WILL
BE LIKELY THIS MORNING GRADUALLY SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST
DIMINISHING TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY MOSTLY
LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SAT AS A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
ALOFT REFLECTS NEAR THE SURFACE...GENERALLY SOUTH OF MOBILE BAY AND
DAUPHIN ISLAND. OTHERWISE...A LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE SURFACE
CONTINUES OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF. A BETTER FLOW FROM THE EAST
CAN BE EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK POSSIBLY SHIFTING MORE NORTH BY
MIDWEEK DEPENDING ON THE POSITION OF ERIKA LATE IN THE PERIOD. FOR
NOW LITTLE CHANGE IS SEAS IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      86  66  90  69  88 /  00  00  05  05  20
PENSACOLA   89  70  88  72  86 /  00  00  05  20  40
DESTIN      88  74  89  74  86 /  00  00  20  20  50
EVERGREEN   89  65  92  68  88 /  00  00  20  05  40
WAYNESBORO  88  63  92  66  90 /  00  00  05  05  20
CAMDEN      89  66  92  69  89 /  00  00  05  05  30
CRESTVIEW   91  62  90  70  87 /  00  00  20  20  50

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 271745 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1245 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. /13


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 713 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/

UPDATE...A RECORD LOW OF 65 HAS BEEN MET IN PENSACOLA THIS MORNING
WHICH BEATS THE OLD RECORD OF 66 SET IN 1958. THE RECORD LOW FOR
MOBILE WAS TIED AT 62 WHICH WAS ALSO SET IN 1958. 32/EE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 507 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/

SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO
BE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH A MID TO UPPER TROF MAINTAINING STRENGTH
ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION AND LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY
THROUGH THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUALLY WEAKENING TREND
BEGINNING BY EARLY FRI MORNING. WITH THIS PATTERN EXPECT ANOTHER
ROUND OF DRY SUNNY WEATHER TODAY AND CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH MAINLY
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS NEAR THE SFC...THOUGH STILL RUNNING A DEGREE
OR TWO BELOW THE CURRENT 00Z MAV GUIDANCE. LATEST THICKNESS VALUES
IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS REASONING WITH 1000 TO 500
THICKNESS VALUES CHANGING LITTLE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO WITH
LIGHT WINDS POSSIBLY DECOUPLING IN SOME AREAS ESPECIALLY WELL TO THE
NORTH COMBINED WITH SURFACE DEWPTS CLIMBING TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
60S MOST INLAND AREAS COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG FORMING AFTER
MIDNIGHT LINGERING UNTIL AROUND 12Z SAT MORNING.

AS FOR TEMPS STILL FLIRTING WITH MORE RECORD LOWS THIS MORNING FOR
BOTH MOBILE AND PENSACOLA INCLUDING MOST INLAND AREAS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE RECORD LOW FOR TODAY FOR MOBILE IS CURRENTLY 62
SET IN 1958 AND 66 FOR PENSACOLA ALSO SET IN 1958. FOR TODAY WILL
LEAN TOWARDS THE COOLER MET GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY...MID TO UPPER
80S FOR AREAS GENERALLY WEST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR AND THE UPPER 80S
TO AROUND 90 TO THE EAST...AND THE COOLER MAV TEMPS FOR TONIGHT
MAINLY DUE TO COOLER DRIER AIR STILL ADVECTING SOUTHWARDS OVER THE
REGION. FOR TOMORROW MORNING A SIMILAR PATTERN CONTINUES ESPECIALLY
FOR MOBILE WHERE THE RECORD LOW IS 66 FOR THE 28TH AND 67 FOR
PENSACOLA. CURRENT FORECAST TEMPS FOR TONIGHT ARE 66 FOR
MOBILE...AND 70 FOR PENSACOLA. ELSEWHERE IN THE FORECAST AREA LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND
THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. 32/EE

[FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT]...A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN SITUATED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM. TWO LARGE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEMS...ONE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND THE OTHER CENTERED OVER
THE SOUTHWEST U.S. / NORTHERN MEXICO BORDER...WITH A SMALL RIDGE
EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD TO THE UPPER MIDWEST...WILL ALSO PERSIST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM. HOWEVER...THIS UPPER RIDGE
WILL QUICKLY BREAKDOWN THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST OUT OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS PASSES
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST.

MEANWHILE A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA ALL THE WAY TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FRIDAY
MORNING. AN UPPER CUTOFF LOW SHOULD FORM OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF
OF MEXICO ON FRIDAY AS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH
BECOMES DETACHED FROM THE NORTHERN PORTION. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE TROUGH WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC ON
FRIDAY AND DEAMPLIFY. THE UPPER CUTOFF LOW WILL THEN LIFT NORTHWARD
ON SATURDAY AND MERGE WITH THE SHORTWAVE PASSING NORTH OF THE REGION.

THE DRY AIR MASS WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO TRANSITION BACK TO THE A MORE
MOIST AIR MASS COURTESY OF AN INCREASING DEEP SOUTHERN WIND FLOW.
PRECIPITABLE WATER (PW) VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 0.9 TO 1.1 INCHES
FRIDAY MORNING. MOST OF THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL OCCUR EAST OF
THE TOMBIGBEE RIVER...WITH PW VALUES RANGING FROM 1.7 TO 1.9 INCHES
BY NOON SATURDAY. WEST OF THE TOMBIGBEE RIVER THE PW VALUES WILL
INCREASE TO BETWEEN 1.2 TO 1.6 INCHES. PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG SHOULD
DEVELOP EACH NIGHT.

ADDED A FEW POP-UP SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE FORECAST ACROSS OUR FAR
EASTERN ZONES FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BUT THE BIGGEST INCREASE IN RAIN
CHANCES WILL OCCUR ON SATURDAY...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
EAST OF THE TOMBIGBEE RIVER. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEST OF THE TOMBIGBEE RIVER.

HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOONS WILL RANGE
FROM 87 TO 92 DEGREES...WITH MID 80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL
SECTIONS. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 66 TO 72
DEGREES INLAND AREAS...WITH MID 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL
SECTIONS. /22

LONG TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER HAS TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA MOVING NORTHWEST OVER THE
CARIBBEAN ISLANDS ON SUNDAY...AND JUST OFF THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA
ON MONDAY. LOCALLY WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE ADEQUATE MOISTURE ACROSS
THE REGION ON SUNDAY WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS.
IF THE FORECAST TRACK KEEPS ERIKA TO OUR EAST...A GRADUAL DECREASE
IN MOISTURE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM IS EXPECTED AS
WINDS TURN BACK TO A NORTHERN FLOW. SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF ERIKA WILL ALSO CUT DOWN OUR RAIN CHANCES...BUT FOR NOW
HAVE AT ISOLATED MONDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
STILL MANAGE TO REACH THE LOWER 90S EACH DAY INLAND AREAS...WITH
UPPER 80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS. /22

MARINE...A MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS WILL
BE LIKELY THIS MORNING GRADUALLY SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST
DIMINISHING TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY MOSTLY
LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SAT AS A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
ALOFT REFLECTS NEAR THE SURFACE...GENERALLY SOUTH OF MOBILE BAY AND
DAUPHIN ISLAND. OTHERWISE...A LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE SURFACE
CONTINUES OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF. A BETTER FLOW FROM THE EAST
CAN BE EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK POSSIBLY SHIFTING MORE NORTH BY
MIDWEEK DEPENDING ON THE POSITION OF ERIKA LATE IN THE PERIOD. FOR
NOW LITTLE CHANGE IS SEAS IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      86  66  90  69  88 /  00  00  05  05  20
PENSACOLA   89  70  88  72  86 /  00  00  05  20  40
DESTIN      88  74  89  74  86 /  00  00  20  20  50
EVERGREEN   89  65  92  68  88 /  00  00  20  05  40
WAYNESBORO  88  63  92  66  90 /  00  00  05  05  20
CAMDEN      89  66  92  69  89 /  00  00  05  05  30
CRESTVIEW   91  62  90  70  87 /  00  00  20  20  50

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMOB 271745 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1245 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. /13


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 713 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/

UPDATE...A RECORD LOW OF 65 HAS BEEN MET IN PENSACOLA THIS MORNING
WHICH BEATS THE OLD RECORD OF 66 SET IN 1958. THE RECORD LOW FOR
MOBILE WAS TIED AT 62 WHICH WAS ALSO SET IN 1958. 32/EE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 507 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/

SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO
BE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH A MID TO UPPER TROF MAINTAINING STRENGTH
ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION AND LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY
THROUGH THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUALLY WEAKENING TREND
BEGINNING BY EARLY FRI MORNING. WITH THIS PATTERN EXPECT ANOTHER
ROUND OF DRY SUNNY WEATHER TODAY AND CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH MAINLY
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS NEAR THE SFC...THOUGH STILL RUNNING A DEGREE
OR TWO BELOW THE CURRENT 00Z MAV GUIDANCE. LATEST THICKNESS VALUES
IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS REASONING WITH 1000 TO 500
THICKNESS VALUES CHANGING LITTLE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO WITH
LIGHT WINDS POSSIBLY DECOUPLING IN SOME AREAS ESPECIALLY WELL TO THE
NORTH COMBINED WITH SURFACE DEWPTS CLIMBING TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
60S MOST INLAND AREAS COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG FORMING AFTER
MIDNIGHT LINGERING UNTIL AROUND 12Z SAT MORNING.

AS FOR TEMPS STILL FLIRTING WITH MORE RECORD LOWS THIS MORNING FOR
BOTH MOBILE AND PENSACOLA INCLUDING MOST INLAND AREAS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE RECORD LOW FOR TODAY FOR MOBILE IS CURRENTLY 62
SET IN 1958 AND 66 FOR PENSACOLA ALSO SET IN 1958. FOR TODAY WILL
LEAN TOWARDS THE COOLER MET GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY...MID TO UPPER
80S FOR AREAS GENERALLY WEST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR AND THE UPPER 80S
TO AROUND 90 TO THE EAST...AND THE COOLER MAV TEMPS FOR TONIGHT
MAINLY DUE TO COOLER DRIER AIR STILL ADVECTING SOUTHWARDS OVER THE
REGION. FOR TOMORROW MORNING A SIMILAR PATTERN CONTINUES ESPECIALLY
FOR MOBILE WHERE THE RECORD LOW IS 66 FOR THE 28TH AND 67 FOR
PENSACOLA. CURRENT FORECAST TEMPS FOR TONIGHT ARE 66 FOR
MOBILE...AND 70 FOR PENSACOLA. ELSEWHERE IN THE FORECAST AREA LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND
THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. 32/EE

[FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT]...A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN SITUATED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM. TWO LARGE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEMS...ONE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND THE OTHER CENTERED OVER
THE SOUTHWEST U.S. / NORTHERN MEXICO BORDER...WITH A SMALL RIDGE
EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD TO THE UPPER MIDWEST...WILL ALSO PERSIST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM. HOWEVER...THIS UPPER RIDGE
WILL QUICKLY BREAKDOWN THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST OUT OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS PASSES
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST.

MEANWHILE A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA ALL THE WAY TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FRIDAY
MORNING. AN UPPER CUTOFF LOW SHOULD FORM OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF
OF MEXICO ON FRIDAY AS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH
BECOMES DETACHED FROM THE NORTHERN PORTION. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE TROUGH WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC ON
FRIDAY AND DEAMPLIFY. THE UPPER CUTOFF LOW WILL THEN LIFT NORTHWARD
ON SATURDAY AND MERGE WITH THE SHORTWAVE PASSING NORTH OF THE REGION.

THE DRY AIR MASS WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO TRANSITION BACK TO THE A MORE
MOIST AIR MASS COURTESY OF AN INCREASING DEEP SOUTHERN WIND FLOW.
PRECIPITABLE WATER (PW) VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 0.9 TO 1.1 INCHES
FRIDAY MORNING. MOST OF THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL OCCUR EAST OF
THE TOMBIGBEE RIVER...WITH PW VALUES RANGING FROM 1.7 TO 1.9 INCHES
BY NOON SATURDAY. WEST OF THE TOMBIGBEE RIVER THE PW VALUES WILL
INCREASE TO BETWEEN 1.2 TO 1.6 INCHES. PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG SHOULD
DEVELOP EACH NIGHT.

ADDED A FEW POP-UP SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE FORECAST ACROSS OUR FAR
EASTERN ZONES FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BUT THE BIGGEST INCREASE IN RAIN
CHANCES WILL OCCUR ON SATURDAY...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
EAST OF THE TOMBIGBEE RIVER. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEST OF THE TOMBIGBEE RIVER.

HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOONS WILL RANGE
FROM 87 TO 92 DEGREES...WITH MID 80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL
SECTIONS. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 66 TO 72
DEGREES INLAND AREAS...WITH MID 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL
SECTIONS. /22

LONG TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER HAS TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA MOVING NORTHWEST OVER THE
CARIBBEAN ISLANDS ON SUNDAY...AND JUST OFF THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA
ON MONDAY. LOCALLY WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE ADEQUATE MOISTURE ACROSS
THE REGION ON SUNDAY WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS.
IF THE FORECAST TRACK KEEPS ERIKA TO OUR EAST...A GRADUAL DECREASE
IN MOISTURE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM IS EXPECTED AS
WINDS TURN BACK TO A NORTHERN FLOW. SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF ERIKA WILL ALSO CUT DOWN OUR RAIN CHANCES...BUT FOR NOW
HAVE AT ISOLATED MONDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
STILL MANAGE TO REACH THE LOWER 90S EACH DAY INLAND AREAS...WITH
UPPER 80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS. /22

MARINE...A MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS WILL
BE LIKELY THIS MORNING GRADUALLY SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST
DIMINISHING TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY MOSTLY
LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SAT AS A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
ALOFT REFLECTS NEAR THE SURFACE...GENERALLY SOUTH OF MOBILE BAY AND
DAUPHIN ISLAND. OTHERWISE...A LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE SURFACE
CONTINUES OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF. A BETTER FLOW FROM THE EAST
CAN BE EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK POSSIBLY SHIFTING MORE NORTH BY
MIDWEEK DEPENDING ON THE POSITION OF ERIKA LATE IN THE PERIOD. FOR
NOW LITTLE CHANGE IS SEAS IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      86  66  90  69  88 /  00  00  05  05  20
PENSACOLA   89  70  88  72  86 /  00  00  05  20  40
DESTIN      88  74  89  74  86 /  00  00  20  20  50
EVERGREEN   89  65  92  68  88 /  00  00  20  05  40
WAYNESBORO  88  63  92  66  90 /  00  00  05  05  20
CAMDEN      89  66  92  69  89 /  00  00  05  05  30
CRESTVIEW   91  62  90  70  87 /  00  00  20  20  50

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 271745 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1245 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. /13


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 713 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/

UPDATE...A RECORD LOW OF 65 HAS BEEN MET IN PENSACOLA THIS MORNING
WHICH BEATS THE OLD RECORD OF 66 SET IN 1958. THE RECORD LOW FOR
MOBILE WAS TIED AT 62 WHICH WAS ALSO SET IN 1958. 32/EE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 507 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/

SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO
BE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH A MID TO UPPER TROF MAINTAINING STRENGTH
ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION AND LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY
THROUGH THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUALLY WEAKENING TREND
BEGINNING BY EARLY FRI MORNING. WITH THIS PATTERN EXPECT ANOTHER
ROUND OF DRY SUNNY WEATHER TODAY AND CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH MAINLY
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS NEAR THE SFC...THOUGH STILL RUNNING A DEGREE
OR TWO BELOW THE CURRENT 00Z MAV GUIDANCE. LATEST THICKNESS VALUES
IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS REASONING WITH 1000 TO 500
THICKNESS VALUES CHANGING LITTLE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO WITH
LIGHT WINDS POSSIBLY DECOUPLING IN SOME AREAS ESPECIALLY WELL TO THE
NORTH COMBINED WITH SURFACE DEWPTS CLIMBING TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
60S MOST INLAND AREAS COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG FORMING AFTER
MIDNIGHT LINGERING UNTIL AROUND 12Z SAT MORNING.

AS FOR TEMPS STILL FLIRTING WITH MORE RECORD LOWS THIS MORNING FOR
BOTH MOBILE AND PENSACOLA INCLUDING MOST INLAND AREAS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE RECORD LOW FOR TODAY FOR MOBILE IS CURRENTLY 62
SET IN 1958 AND 66 FOR PENSACOLA ALSO SET IN 1958. FOR TODAY WILL
LEAN TOWARDS THE COOLER MET GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY...MID TO UPPER
80S FOR AREAS GENERALLY WEST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR AND THE UPPER 80S
TO AROUND 90 TO THE EAST...AND THE COOLER MAV TEMPS FOR TONIGHT
MAINLY DUE TO COOLER DRIER AIR STILL ADVECTING SOUTHWARDS OVER THE
REGION. FOR TOMORROW MORNING A SIMILAR PATTERN CONTINUES ESPECIALLY
FOR MOBILE WHERE THE RECORD LOW IS 66 FOR THE 28TH AND 67 FOR
PENSACOLA. CURRENT FORECAST TEMPS FOR TONIGHT ARE 66 FOR
MOBILE...AND 70 FOR PENSACOLA. ELSEWHERE IN THE FORECAST AREA LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND
THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. 32/EE

[FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT]...A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN SITUATED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM. TWO LARGE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEMS...ONE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND THE OTHER CENTERED OVER
THE SOUTHWEST U.S. / NORTHERN MEXICO BORDER...WITH A SMALL RIDGE
EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD TO THE UPPER MIDWEST...WILL ALSO PERSIST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM. HOWEVER...THIS UPPER RIDGE
WILL QUICKLY BREAKDOWN THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST OUT OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS PASSES
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST.

MEANWHILE A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA ALL THE WAY TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FRIDAY
MORNING. AN UPPER CUTOFF LOW SHOULD FORM OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF
OF MEXICO ON FRIDAY AS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH
BECOMES DETACHED FROM THE NORTHERN PORTION. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE TROUGH WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC ON
FRIDAY AND DEAMPLIFY. THE UPPER CUTOFF LOW WILL THEN LIFT NORTHWARD
ON SATURDAY AND MERGE WITH THE SHORTWAVE PASSING NORTH OF THE REGION.

THE DRY AIR MASS WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO TRANSITION BACK TO THE A MORE
MOIST AIR MASS COURTESY OF AN INCREASING DEEP SOUTHERN WIND FLOW.
PRECIPITABLE WATER (PW) VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 0.9 TO 1.1 INCHES
FRIDAY MORNING. MOST OF THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL OCCUR EAST OF
THE TOMBIGBEE RIVER...WITH PW VALUES RANGING FROM 1.7 TO 1.9 INCHES
BY NOON SATURDAY. WEST OF THE TOMBIGBEE RIVER THE PW VALUES WILL
INCREASE TO BETWEEN 1.2 TO 1.6 INCHES. PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG SHOULD
DEVELOP EACH NIGHT.

ADDED A FEW POP-UP SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE FORECAST ACROSS OUR FAR
EASTERN ZONES FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BUT THE BIGGEST INCREASE IN RAIN
CHANCES WILL OCCUR ON SATURDAY...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
EAST OF THE TOMBIGBEE RIVER. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEST OF THE TOMBIGBEE RIVER.

HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOONS WILL RANGE
FROM 87 TO 92 DEGREES...WITH MID 80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL
SECTIONS. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 66 TO 72
DEGREES INLAND AREAS...WITH MID 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL
SECTIONS. /22

LONG TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER HAS TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA MOVING NORTHWEST OVER THE
CARIBBEAN ISLANDS ON SUNDAY...AND JUST OFF THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA
ON MONDAY. LOCALLY WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE ADEQUATE MOISTURE ACROSS
THE REGION ON SUNDAY WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS.
IF THE FORECAST TRACK KEEPS ERIKA TO OUR EAST...A GRADUAL DECREASE
IN MOISTURE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM IS EXPECTED AS
WINDS TURN BACK TO A NORTHERN FLOW. SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF ERIKA WILL ALSO CUT DOWN OUR RAIN CHANCES...BUT FOR NOW
HAVE AT ISOLATED MONDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
STILL MANAGE TO REACH THE LOWER 90S EACH DAY INLAND AREAS...WITH
UPPER 80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS. /22

MARINE...A MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS WILL
BE LIKELY THIS MORNING GRADUALLY SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST
DIMINISHING TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY MOSTLY
LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SAT AS A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
ALOFT REFLECTS NEAR THE SURFACE...GENERALLY SOUTH OF MOBILE BAY AND
DAUPHIN ISLAND. OTHERWISE...A LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE SURFACE
CONTINUES OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF. A BETTER FLOW FROM THE EAST
CAN BE EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK POSSIBLY SHIFTING MORE NORTH BY
MIDWEEK DEPENDING ON THE POSITION OF ERIKA LATE IN THE PERIOD. FOR
NOW LITTLE CHANGE IS SEAS IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      86  66  90  69  88 /  00  00  05  05  20
PENSACOLA   89  70  88  72  86 /  00  00  05  20  40
DESTIN      88  74  89  74  86 /  00  00  20  20  50
EVERGREEN   89  65  92  68  88 /  00  00  20  05  40
WAYNESBORO  88  63  92  66  90 /  00  00  05  05  20
CAMDEN      89  66  92  69  89 /  00  00  05  05  30
CRESTVIEW   91  62  90  70  87 /  00  00  20  20  50

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMOB 271213 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
713 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...A RECORD LOW OF 65 HAS BEEN MET IN PENSACOLA THIS MORNING
WHICH BEATS THE OLD RECORD OF 66 SET IN 1958. THE RECORD LOW FOR
MOBILE WAS TIED AT 62 WHICH WAS ALSO SET IN 1958. 32/EE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 507 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/

SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO
BE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH A MID TO UPPER TROF MAINTAINING STRENGTH
ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION AND LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY
THROUGH THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUALLY WEAKENING TREND
BEGINNING BY EARLY FRI MORNING. WITH THIS PATTERN EXPECT ANOTHER
ROUND OF DRY SUNNY WEATHER TODAY AND CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH MAINLY
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS NEAR THE SFC...THOUGH STILL RUNNING A DEGREE
OR TWO BELOW THE CURRENT 00Z MAV GUIDANCE. LATEST THICKNESS VALUES
IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS REASONING WITH 1000 TO 500
THICKNESS VALUES CHANGING LITTLE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO WITH
LIGHT WINDS POSSIBLY DECOUPLING IN SOME AREAS ESPECIALLY WELL TO THE
NORTH COMBINED WITH SURFACE DEWPTS CLIMBING TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
60S MOST INLAND AREAS COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG FORMING AFTER
MIDNIGHT LINGERING UNTIL AROUND 12Z SAT MORNING.

AS FOR TEMPS STILL FLIRTING WITH MORE RECORD LOWS THIS MORNING FOR
BOTH MOBILE AND PENSACOLA INCLUDING MOST INLAND AREAS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE RECORD LOW FOR TODAY FOR MOBILE IS CURRENTLY 62
SET IN 1958 AND 66 FOR PENSACOLA ALSO SET IN 1958. FOR TODAY WILL
LEAN TOWARDS THE COOLER MET GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY...MID TO UPPER
80S FOR AREAS GENERALLY WEST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR AND THE UPPER 80S
TO AROUND 90 TO THE EAST...AND THE COOLER MAV TEMPS FOR TONIGHT
MAINLY DUE TO COOLER DRIER AIR STILL ADVECTING SOUTHWARDS OVER THE
REGION. FOR TOMORROW MORNING A SIMILAR PATTERN CONTINUES ESPECIALLY
FOR MOBILE WHERE THE RECORD LOW IS 66 FOR THE 28TH AND 67 FOR
PENSACOLA. CURRENT FORECAST TEMPS FOR TONIGHT ARE 66 FOR
MOBILE...AND 70 FOR PENSACOLA. ELSEWHERE IN THE FORECAST AREA LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND
THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. 32/EE

[FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT]...A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN SITUATED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM. TWO LARGE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEMS...ONE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND THE OTHER CENTERED OVER
THE SOUTHWEST U.S. / NORTHERN MEXICO BORDER...WITH A SMALL RIDGE
EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD TO THE UPPER MIDWEST...WILL ALSO PERSIST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM. HOWEVER...THIS UPPER RIDGE
WILL QUICKLY BREAKDOWN THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST OUT OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS PASSES
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST.

MEANWHILE A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA ALL THE WAY TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FRIDAY
MORNING. AN UPPER CUTOFF LOW SHOULD FORM OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF
OF MEXICO ON FRIDAY AS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH
BECOMES DETACHED FROM THE NORTHERN PORTION. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE TROUGH WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC ON
FRIDAY AND DEAMPLIFY. THE UPPER CUTOFF LOW WILL THEN LIFT NORTHWARD
ON SATURDAY AND MERGE WITH THE SHORTWAVE PASSING NORTH OF THE REGION.

THE DRY AIR MASS WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO TRANSITION BACK TO THE A MORE
MOIST AIR MASS COURTESY OF AN INCREASING DEEP SOUTHERN WIND FLOW.
PRECIPITABLE WATER (PW) VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 0.9 TO 1.1 INCHES
FRIDAY MORNING. MOST OF THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL OCCUR EAST OF
THE TOMBIGBEE RIVER...WITH PW VALUES RANGING FROM 1.7 TO 1.9 INCHES
BY NOON SATURDAY. WEST OF THE TOMBIGBEE RIVER THE PW VALUES WILL
INCREASE TO BETWEEN 1.2 TO 1.6 INCHES. PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG SHOULD
DEVELOP EACH NIGHT.

ADDED A FEW POP-UP SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE FORECAST ACROSS OUR FAR
EASTERN ZONES FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BUT THE BIGGEST INCREASE IN RAIN
CHANCES WILL OCCUR ON SATURDAY...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
EAST OF THE TOMBIGBEE RIVER. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEST OF THE TOMBIGBEE RIVER.

HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOONS WILL RANGE
FROM 87 TO 92 DEGREES...WITH MID 80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL
SECTIONS. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 66 TO 72
DEGREES INLAND AREAS...WITH MID 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL
SECTIONS. /22

LONG TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER HAS TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA MOVING NORTHWEST OVER THE
CARIBBEAN ISLANDS ON SUNDAY...AND JUST OFF THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA
ON MONDAY. LOCALLY WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE ADEQUATE MOISTURE ACROSS
THE REGION ON SUNDAY WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS.
IF THE FORECAST TRACK KEEPS ERIKA TO OUR EAST...A GRADUAL DECREASE
IN MOISTURE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM IS EXPECTED AS
WINDS TURN BACK TO A NORTHERN FLOW. SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF ERIKA WILL ALSO CUT DOWN OUR RAIN CHANCES...BUT FOR NOW
HAVE AT ISOLATED MONDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
STILL MANAGE TO REACH THE LOWER 90S EACH DAY INLAND AREAS...WITH
UPPER 80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS. /22

AVIATION... 27.12Z TAF ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 28.12Z.
WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 3 TO 6 KNOTS THROUGH 12Z
FRI. 32/EE

MARINE...A MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS WILL
BE LIKELY THIS MORNING GRADUALLY SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST
DIMINISHING TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY MOSTLY
LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SAT AS A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
ALOFT REFLECTS NEAR THE SURFACE...GENERALLY SOUTH OF MOBILE BAY AND
DAUPHIN ISLAND. OTHERWISE...A LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE SURFACE
CONTINUES OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF. A BETTER FLOW FROM THE EAST
CAN BE EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK POSSIBLY SHIFTING MORE NORTH BY
MIDWEEK DEPENDING ON THE POSITION OF ERIKA LATE IN THE PERIOD. FOR
NOW LITTLE CHANGE IS SEAS IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      86  66  90  69  88 /  00  00  05  05  20
PENSACOLA   89  70  88  72  86 /  00  00  05  20  40
DESTIN      88  74  89  74  86 /  00  00  20  20  50
EVERGREEN   89  65  92  68  88 /  00  00  20  05  40
WAYNESBORO  88  63  92  66  90 /  00  00  05  05  20
CAMDEN      89  66  92  69  89 /  00  00  05  05  30
CRESTVIEW   91  62  90  70  87 /  00  00  20  20  50

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMOB 271213 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
713 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...A RECORD LOW OF 65 HAS BEEN MET IN PENSACOLA THIS MORNING
WHICH BEATS THE OLD RECORD OF 66 SET IN 1958. THE RECORD LOW FOR
MOBILE WAS TIED AT 62 WHICH WAS ALSO SET IN 1958. 32/EE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 507 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/

SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO
BE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH A MID TO UPPER TROF MAINTAINING STRENGTH
ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION AND LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY
THROUGH THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUALLY WEAKENING TREND
BEGINNING BY EARLY FRI MORNING. WITH THIS PATTERN EXPECT ANOTHER
ROUND OF DRY SUNNY WEATHER TODAY AND CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH MAINLY
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS NEAR THE SFC...THOUGH STILL RUNNING A DEGREE
OR TWO BELOW THE CURRENT 00Z MAV GUIDANCE. LATEST THICKNESS VALUES
IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS REASONING WITH 1000 TO 500
THICKNESS VALUES CHANGING LITTLE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO WITH
LIGHT WINDS POSSIBLY DECOUPLING IN SOME AREAS ESPECIALLY WELL TO THE
NORTH COMBINED WITH SURFACE DEWPTS CLIMBING TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
60S MOST INLAND AREAS COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG FORMING AFTER
MIDNIGHT LINGERING UNTIL AROUND 12Z SAT MORNING.

AS FOR TEMPS STILL FLIRTING WITH MORE RECORD LOWS THIS MORNING FOR
BOTH MOBILE AND PENSACOLA INCLUDING MOST INLAND AREAS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE RECORD LOW FOR TODAY FOR MOBILE IS CURRENTLY 62
SET IN 1958 AND 66 FOR PENSACOLA ALSO SET IN 1958. FOR TODAY WILL
LEAN TOWARDS THE COOLER MET GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY...MID TO UPPER
80S FOR AREAS GENERALLY WEST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR AND THE UPPER 80S
TO AROUND 90 TO THE EAST...AND THE COOLER MAV TEMPS FOR TONIGHT
MAINLY DUE TO COOLER DRIER AIR STILL ADVECTING SOUTHWARDS OVER THE
REGION. FOR TOMORROW MORNING A SIMILAR PATTERN CONTINUES ESPECIALLY
FOR MOBILE WHERE THE RECORD LOW IS 66 FOR THE 28TH AND 67 FOR
PENSACOLA. CURRENT FORECAST TEMPS FOR TONIGHT ARE 66 FOR
MOBILE...AND 70 FOR PENSACOLA. ELSEWHERE IN THE FORECAST AREA LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND
THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. 32/EE

[FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT]...A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN SITUATED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM. TWO LARGE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEMS...ONE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND THE OTHER CENTERED OVER
THE SOUTHWEST U.S. / NORTHERN MEXICO BORDER...WITH A SMALL RIDGE
EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD TO THE UPPER MIDWEST...WILL ALSO PERSIST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM. HOWEVER...THIS UPPER RIDGE
WILL QUICKLY BREAKDOWN THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST OUT OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS PASSES
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST.

MEANWHILE A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA ALL THE WAY TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FRIDAY
MORNING. AN UPPER CUTOFF LOW SHOULD FORM OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF
OF MEXICO ON FRIDAY AS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH
BECOMES DETACHED FROM THE NORTHERN PORTION. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE TROUGH WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC ON
FRIDAY AND DEAMPLIFY. THE UPPER CUTOFF LOW WILL THEN LIFT NORTHWARD
ON SATURDAY AND MERGE WITH THE SHORTWAVE PASSING NORTH OF THE REGION.

THE DRY AIR MASS WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO TRANSITION BACK TO THE A MORE
MOIST AIR MASS COURTESY OF AN INCREASING DEEP SOUTHERN WIND FLOW.
PRECIPITABLE WATER (PW) VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 0.9 TO 1.1 INCHES
FRIDAY MORNING. MOST OF THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL OCCUR EAST OF
THE TOMBIGBEE RIVER...WITH PW VALUES RANGING FROM 1.7 TO 1.9 INCHES
BY NOON SATURDAY. WEST OF THE TOMBIGBEE RIVER THE PW VALUES WILL
INCREASE TO BETWEEN 1.2 TO 1.6 INCHES. PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG SHOULD
DEVELOP EACH NIGHT.

ADDED A FEW POP-UP SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE FORECAST ACROSS OUR FAR
EASTERN ZONES FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BUT THE BIGGEST INCREASE IN RAIN
CHANCES WILL OCCUR ON SATURDAY...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
EAST OF THE TOMBIGBEE RIVER. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEST OF THE TOMBIGBEE RIVER.

HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOONS WILL RANGE
FROM 87 TO 92 DEGREES...WITH MID 80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL
SECTIONS. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 66 TO 72
DEGREES INLAND AREAS...WITH MID 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL
SECTIONS. /22

LONG TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER HAS TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA MOVING NORTHWEST OVER THE
CARIBBEAN ISLANDS ON SUNDAY...AND JUST OFF THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA
ON MONDAY. LOCALLY WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE ADEQUATE MOISTURE ACROSS
THE REGION ON SUNDAY WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS.
IF THE FORECAST TRACK KEEPS ERIKA TO OUR EAST...A GRADUAL DECREASE
IN MOISTURE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM IS EXPECTED AS
WINDS TURN BACK TO A NORTHERN FLOW. SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF ERIKA WILL ALSO CUT DOWN OUR RAIN CHANCES...BUT FOR NOW
HAVE AT ISOLATED MONDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
STILL MANAGE TO REACH THE LOWER 90S EACH DAY INLAND AREAS...WITH
UPPER 80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS. /22

AVIATION... 27.12Z TAF ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 28.12Z.
WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 3 TO 6 KNOTS THROUGH 12Z
FRI. 32/EE

MARINE...A MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS WILL
BE LIKELY THIS MORNING GRADUALLY SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST
DIMINISHING TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY MOSTLY
LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SAT AS A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
ALOFT REFLECTS NEAR THE SURFACE...GENERALLY SOUTH OF MOBILE BAY AND
DAUPHIN ISLAND. OTHERWISE...A LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE SURFACE
CONTINUES OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF. A BETTER FLOW FROM THE EAST
CAN BE EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK POSSIBLY SHIFTING MORE NORTH BY
MIDWEEK DEPENDING ON THE POSITION OF ERIKA LATE IN THE PERIOD. FOR
NOW LITTLE CHANGE IS SEAS IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      86  66  90  69  88 /  00  00  05  05  20
PENSACOLA   89  70  88  72  86 /  00  00  05  20  40
DESTIN      88  74  89  74  86 /  00  00  20  20  50
EVERGREEN   89  65  92  68  88 /  00  00  20  05  40
WAYNESBORO  88  63  92  66  90 /  00  00  05  05  20
CAMDEN      89  66  92  69  89 /  00  00  05  05  30
CRESTVIEW   91  62  90  70  87 /  00  00  20  20  50

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 271213 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
713 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...A RECORD LOW OF 65 HAS BEEN MET IN PENSACOLA THIS MORNING
WHICH BEATS THE OLD RECORD OF 66 SET IN 1958. THE RECORD LOW FOR
MOBILE WAS TIED AT 62 WHICH WAS ALSO SET IN 1958. 32/EE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 507 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/

SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO
BE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH A MID TO UPPER TROF MAINTAINING STRENGTH
ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION AND LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY
THROUGH THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUALLY WEAKENING TREND
BEGINNING BY EARLY FRI MORNING. WITH THIS PATTERN EXPECT ANOTHER
ROUND OF DRY SUNNY WEATHER TODAY AND CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH MAINLY
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS NEAR THE SFC...THOUGH STILL RUNNING A DEGREE
OR TWO BELOW THE CURRENT 00Z MAV GUIDANCE. LATEST THICKNESS VALUES
IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS REASONING WITH 1000 TO 500
THICKNESS VALUES CHANGING LITTLE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO WITH
LIGHT WINDS POSSIBLY DECOUPLING IN SOME AREAS ESPECIALLY WELL TO THE
NORTH COMBINED WITH SURFACE DEWPTS CLIMBING TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
60S MOST INLAND AREAS COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG FORMING AFTER
MIDNIGHT LINGERING UNTIL AROUND 12Z SAT MORNING.

AS FOR TEMPS STILL FLIRTING WITH MORE RECORD LOWS THIS MORNING FOR
BOTH MOBILE AND PENSACOLA INCLUDING MOST INLAND AREAS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE RECORD LOW FOR TODAY FOR MOBILE IS CURRENTLY 62
SET IN 1958 AND 66 FOR PENSACOLA ALSO SET IN 1958. FOR TODAY WILL
LEAN TOWARDS THE COOLER MET GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY...MID TO UPPER
80S FOR AREAS GENERALLY WEST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR AND THE UPPER 80S
TO AROUND 90 TO THE EAST...AND THE COOLER MAV TEMPS FOR TONIGHT
MAINLY DUE TO COOLER DRIER AIR STILL ADVECTING SOUTHWARDS OVER THE
REGION. FOR TOMORROW MORNING A SIMILAR PATTERN CONTINUES ESPECIALLY
FOR MOBILE WHERE THE RECORD LOW IS 66 FOR THE 28TH AND 67 FOR
PENSACOLA. CURRENT FORECAST TEMPS FOR TONIGHT ARE 66 FOR
MOBILE...AND 70 FOR PENSACOLA. ELSEWHERE IN THE FORECAST AREA LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND
THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. 32/EE

[FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT]...A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN SITUATED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM. TWO LARGE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEMS...ONE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND THE OTHER CENTERED OVER
THE SOUTHWEST U.S. / NORTHERN MEXICO BORDER...WITH A SMALL RIDGE
EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD TO THE UPPER MIDWEST...WILL ALSO PERSIST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM. HOWEVER...THIS UPPER RIDGE
WILL QUICKLY BREAKDOWN THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST OUT OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS PASSES
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST.

MEANWHILE A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA ALL THE WAY TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FRIDAY
MORNING. AN UPPER CUTOFF LOW SHOULD FORM OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF
OF MEXICO ON FRIDAY AS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH
BECOMES DETACHED FROM THE NORTHERN PORTION. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE TROUGH WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC ON
FRIDAY AND DEAMPLIFY. THE UPPER CUTOFF LOW WILL THEN LIFT NORTHWARD
ON SATURDAY AND MERGE WITH THE SHORTWAVE PASSING NORTH OF THE REGION.

THE DRY AIR MASS WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO TRANSITION BACK TO THE A MORE
MOIST AIR MASS COURTESY OF AN INCREASING DEEP SOUTHERN WIND FLOW.
PRECIPITABLE WATER (PW) VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 0.9 TO 1.1 INCHES
FRIDAY MORNING. MOST OF THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL OCCUR EAST OF
THE TOMBIGBEE RIVER...WITH PW VALUES RANGING FROM 1.7 TO 1.9 INCHES
BY NOON SATURDAY. WEST OF THE TOMBIGBEE RIVER THE PW VALUES WILL
INCREASE TO BETWEEN 1.2 TO 1.6 INCHES. PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG SHOULD
DEVELOP EACH NIGHT.

ADDED A FEW POP-UP SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE FORECAST ACROSS OUR FAR
EASTERN ZONES FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BUT THE BIGGEST INCREASE IN RAIN
CHANCES WILL OCCUR ON SATURDAY...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
EAST OF THE TOMBIGBEE RIVER. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEST OF THE TOMBIGBEE RIVER.

HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOONS WILL RANGE
FROM 87 TO 92 DEGREES...WITH MID 80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL
SECTIONS. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 66 TO 72
DEGREES INLAND AREAS...WITH MID 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL
SECTIONS. /22

LONG TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER HAS TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA MOVING NORTHWEST OVER THE
CARIBBEAN ISLANDS ON SUNDAY...AND JUST OFF THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA
ON MONDAY. LOCALLY WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE ADEQUATE MOISTURE ACROSS
THE REGION ON SUNDAY WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS.
IF THE FORECAST TRACK KEEPS ERIKA TO OUR EAST...A GRADUAL DECREASE
IN MOISTURE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM IS EXPECTED AS
WINDS TURN BACK TO A NORTHERN FLOW. SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF ERIKA WILL ALSO CUT DOWN OUR RAIN CHANCES...BUT FOR NOW
HAVE AT ISOLATED MONDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
STILL MANAGE TO REACH THE LOWER 90S EACH DAY INLAND AREAS...WITH
UPPER 80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS. /22

AVIATION... 27.12Z TAF ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 28.12Z.
WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 3 TO 6 KNOTS THROUGH 12Z
FRI. 32/EE

MARINE...A MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS WILL
BE LIKELY THIS MORNING GRADUALLY SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST
DIMINISHING TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY MOSTLY
LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SAT AS A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
ALOFT REFLECTS NEAR THE SURFACE...GENERALLY SOUTH OF MOBILE BAY AND
DAUPHIN ISLAND. OTHERWISE...A LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE SURFACE
CONTINUES OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF. A BETTER FLOW FROM THE EAST
CAN BE EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK POSSIBLY SHIFTING MORE NORTH BY
MIDWEEK DEPENDING ON THE POSITION OF ERIKA LATE IN THE PERIOD. FOR
NOW LITTLE CHANGE IS SEAS IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      86  66  90  69  88 /  00  00  05  05  20
PENSACOLA   89  70  88  72  86 /  00  00  05  20  40
DESTIN      88  74  89  74  86 /  00  00  20  20  50
EVERGREEN   89  65  92  68  88 /  00  00  20  05  40
WAYNESBORO  88  63  92  66  90 /  00  00  05  05  20
CAMDEN      89  66  92  69  89 /  00  00  05  05  30
CRESTVIEW   91  62  90  70  87 /  00  00  20  20  50

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMOB 271213 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
713 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...A RECORD LOW OF 65 HAS BEEN MET IN PENSACOLA THIS MORNING
WHICH BEATS THE OLD RECORD OF 66 SET IN 1958. THE RECORD LOW FOR
MOBILE WAS TIED AT 62 WHICH WAS ALSO SET IN 1958. 32/EE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 507 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/

SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO
BE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH A MID TO UPPER TROF MAINTAINING STRENGTH
ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION AND LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY
THROUGH THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUALLY WEAKENING TREND
BEGINNING BY EARLY FRI MORNING. WITH THIS PATTERN EXPECT ANOTHER
ROUND OF DRY SUNNY WEATHER TODAY AND CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH MAINLY
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS NEAR THE SFC...THOUGH STILL RUNNING A DEGREE
OR TWO BELOW THE CURRENT 00Z MAV GUIDANCE. LATEST THICKNESS VALUES
IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS REASONING WITH 1000 TO 500
THICKNESS VALUES CHANGING LITTLE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO WITH
LIGHT WINDS POSSIBLY DECOUPLING IN SOME AREAS ESPECIALLY WELL TO THE
NORTH COMBINED WITH SURFACE DEWPTS CLIMBING TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
60S MOST INLAND AREAS COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG FORMING AFTER
MIDNIGHT LINGERING UNTIL AROUND 12Z SAT MORNING.

AS FOR TEMPS STILL FLIRTING WITH MORE RECORD LOWS THIS MORNING FOR
BOTH MOBILE AND PENSACOLA INCLUDING MOST INLAND AREAS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE RECORD LOW FOR TODAY FOR MOBILE IS CURRENTLY 62
SET IN 1958 AND 66 FOR PENSACOLA ALSO SET IN 1958. FOR TODAY WILL
LEAN TOWARDS THE COOLER MET GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY...MID TO UPPER
80S FOR AREAS GENERALLY WEST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR AND THE UPPER 80S
TO AROUND 90 TO THE EAST...AND THE COOLER MAV TEMPS FOR TONIGHT
MAINLY DUE TO COOLER DRIER AIR STILL ADVECTING SOUTHWARDS OVER THE
REGION. FOR TOMORROW MORNING A SIMILAR PATTERN CONTINUES ESPECIALLY
FOR MOBILE WHERE THE RECORD LOW IS 66 FOR THE 28TH AND 67 FOR
PENSACOLA. CURRENT FORECAST TEMPS FOR TONIGHT ARE 66 FOR
MOBILE...AND 70 FOR PENSACOLA. ELSEWHERE IN THE FORECAST AREA LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND
THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. 32/EE

[FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT]...A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN SITUATED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM. TWO LARGE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEMS...ONE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND THE OTHER CENTERED OVER
THE SOUTHWEST U.S. / NORTHERN MEXICO BORDER...WITH A SMALL RIDGE
EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD TO THE UPPER MIDWEST...WILL ALSO PERSIST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM. HOWEVER...THIS UPPER RIDGE
WILL QUICKLY BREAKDOWN THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST OUT OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS PASSES
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST.

MEANWHILE A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA ALL THE WAY TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FRIDAY
MORNING. AN UPPER CUTOFF LOW SHOULD FORM OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF
OF MEXICO ON FRIDAY AS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH
BECOMES DETACHED FROM THE NORTHERN PORTION. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE TROUGH WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC ON
FRIDAY AND DEAMPLIFY. THE UPPER CUTOFF LOW WILL THEN LIFT NORTHWARD
ON SATURDAY AND MERGE WITH THE SHORTWAVE PASSING NORTH OF THE REGION.

THE DRY AIR MASS WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO TRANSITION BACK TO THE A MORE
MOIST AIR MASS COURTESY OF AN INCREASING DEEP SOUTHERN WIND FLOW.
PRECIPITABLE WATER (PW) VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 0.9 TO 1.1 INCHES
FRIDAY MORNING. MOST OF THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL OCCUR EAST OF
THE TOMBIGBEE RIVER...WITH PW VALUES RANGING FROM 1.7 TO 1.9 INCHES
BY NOON SATURDAY. WEST OF THE TOMBIGBEE RIVER THE PW VALUES WILL
INCREASE TO BETWEEN 1.2 TO 1.6 INCHES. PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG SHOULD
DEVELOP EACH NIGHT.

ADDED A FEW POP-UP SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE FORECAST ACROSS OUR FAR
EASTERN ZONES FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BUT THE BIGGEST INCREASE IN RAIN
CHANCES WILL OCCUR ON SATURDAY...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
EAST OF THE TOMBIGBEE RIVER. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEST OF THE TOMBIGBEE RIVER.

HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOONS WILL RANGE
FROM 87 TO 92 DEGREES...WITH MID 80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL
SECTIONS. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 66 TO 72
DEGREES INLAND AREAS...WITH MID 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL
SECTIONS. /22

LONG TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER HAS TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA MOVING NORTHWEST OVER THE
CARIBBEAN ISLANDS ON SUNDAY...AND JUST OFF THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA
ON MONDAY. LOCALLY WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE ADEQUATE MOISTURE ACROSS
THE REGION ON SUNDAY WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS.
IF THE FORECAST TRACK KEEPS ERIKA TO OUR EAST...A GRADUAL DECREASE
IN MOISTURE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM IS EXPECTED AS
WINDS TURN BACK TO A NORTHERN FLOW. SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF ERIKA WILL ALSO CUT DOWN OUR RAIN CHANCES...BUT FOR NOW
HAVE AT ISOLATED MONDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
STILL MANAGE TO REACH THE LOWER 90S EACH DAY INLAND AREAS...WITH
UPPER 80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS. /22

AVIATION... 27.12Z TAF ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 28.12Z.
WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 3 TO 6 KNOTS THROUGH 12Z
FRI. 32/EE

MARINE...A MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS WILL
BE LIKELY THIS MORNING GRADUALLY SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST
DIMINISHING TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY MOSTLY
LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SAT AS A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
ALOFT REFLECTS NEAR THE SURFACE...GENERALLY SOUTH OF MOBILE BAY AND
DAUPHIN ISLAND. OTHERWISE...A LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE SURFACE
CONTINUES OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF. A BETTER FLOW FROM THE EAST
CAN BE EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK POSSIBLY SHIFTING MORE NORTH BY
MIDWEEK DEPENDING ON THE POSITION OF ERIKA LATE IN THE PERIOD. FOR
NOW LITTLE CHANGE IS SEAS IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      86  66  90  69  88 /  00  00  05  05  20
PENSACOLA   89  70  88  72  86 /  00  00  05  20  40
DESTIN      88  74  89  74  86 /  00  00  20  20  50
EVERGREEN   89  65  92  68  88 /  00  00  20  05  40
WAYNESBORO  88  63  92  66  90 /  00  00  05  05  20
CAMDEN      89  66  92  69  89 /  00  00  05  05  30
CRESTVIEW   91  62  90  70  87 /  00  00  20  20  50

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 271007
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
507 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO
BE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH A MID TO UPPER TROF MAINTAINING STRENGTH
ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION AND LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY
THROUGH THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUALLY WEAKENING TREND
BEGINNING BY EARLY FRI MORNING. WITH THIS PATTERN EXPECT ANOTHER
ROUND OF DRY SUNNY WEATHER TODAY AND CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH MAINLY
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS NEAR THE SFC...THOUGH STILL RUNNING A DEGREE
OR TWO BELOW THE CURRENT 00Z MAV GUIDANCE. LATEST THICKNESS VALUES
IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS REASONING WITH 1000 TO 500
THICKNESS VALUES CHANGING LITTLE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO WITH
LIGHT WINDS POSSIBLY DECOUPLING IN SOME AREAS ESPECIALLY WELL TO THE
NORTH COMBINED WITH SURFACE DEWPTS CLIMBING TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
60S MOST INLAND AREAS COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG FORMING AFTER
MIDNIGHT LINGERING UNTIL AROUND 12Z SAT MORNING.

AS FOR TEMPS STILL FLIRTING WITH MORE RECORD LOWS THIS MORNING FOR
BOTH MOBILE AND PENSACOLA INCLUDING MOST INLAND AREAS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE RECORD LOW FOR TODAY FOR MOBILE IS CURRENTLY 62
SET IN 1958 AND 66 FOR PENSACOLA ALSO SET IN 1958. FOR TODAY WILL
LEAN TOWARDS THE COOLER MET GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY...MID TO UPPER
80S FOR AREAS GENERALLY WEST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR AND THE UPPER 80S
TO AROUND 90 TO THE EAST...AND THE COOLER MAV TEMPS FOR TONIGHT
MAINLY DUE TO COOLER DRIER AIR STILL ADVECTING SOUTHWARDS OVER THE
REGION. FOR TOMORROW MORNING A SIMILAR PATTERN CONTINUES ESPECIALLY
FOR MOBILE WHERE THE RECORD LOW IS 66 FOR THE 28TH AND 67 FOR
PENSACOLA. CURRENT FORECAST TEMPS FOR TONIGHT ARE 66 FOR
MOBILE...AND 70 FOR PENSACOLA. ELSEWHERE IN THE FORECAST AREA LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND
THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. 32/EE

[FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT]...A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN SITUATED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM. TWO LARGE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEMS...ONE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND THE OTHER CENTERED OVER
THE SOUTHWEST U.S. / NORTHERN MEXICO BORDER...WITH A SMALL RIDGE
EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD TO THE UPPER MIDWEST...WILL ALSO PERSIST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM. HOWEVER...THIS UPPER RIDGE
WILL QUICKLY BREAKDOWN THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST OUT OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS PASSES
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST.

MEANWHILE A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA ALL THE WAY TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FRIDAY
MORNING. AN UPPER CUTOFF LOW SHOULD FORM OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF
OF MEXICO ON FRIDAY AS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH
BECOMES DETACHED FROM THE NORTHERN PORTION. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE TROUGH WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC ON
FRIDAY AND DEAMPLIFY. THE UPPER CUTOFF LOW WILL THEN LIFT NORTHWARD
ON SATURDAY AND MERGE WITH THE SHORTWAVE PASSING NORTH OF THE REGION.

THE DRY AIR MASS WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO TRANSITION BACK TO THE A MORE
MOIST AIR MASS COURTESY OF AN INCREASING DEEP SOUTHERN WIND FLOW.
PRECIPITABLE WATER (PW) VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 0.9 TO 1.1 INCHES
FRIDAY MORNING. MOST OF THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL OCCUR EAST OF
THE TOMBIGBEE RIVER...WITH PW VALUES RANGING FROM 1.7 TO 1.9 INCHES
BY NOON SATURDAY. WEST OF THE TOMBIGBEE RIVER THE PW VALUES WILL
INCREASE TO BETWEEN 1.2 TO 1.6 INCHES. PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG SHOULD
DEVELOP EACH NIGHT.

ADDED A FEW POP-UP SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE FORECAST ACROSS OUR FAR
EASTERN ZONES FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BUT THE BIGGEST INCREASE IN RAIN
CHANCES WILL OCCUR ON SATURDAY...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
EAST OF THE TOMBIGBEE RIVER. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEST OF THE TOMBIGBEE RIVER.

HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOONS WILL RANGE
FROM 87 TO 92 DEGREES...WITH MID 80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL
SECTIONS. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 66 TO 72
DEGREES INLAND AREAS...WITH MID 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL
SECTIONS. /22

&&

.LONG TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER HAS TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA MOVING NORTHWEST OVER THE
CARIBBEAN ISLANDS ON SUNDAY...AND JUST OFF THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA
ON MONDAY. LOCALLY WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE ADEQUATE MOISTURE ACROSS
THE REGION ON SUNDAY WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS.
IF THE FORECAST TRACK KEEPS ERIKA TO OUR EAST...A GRADUAL DECREASE
IN MOISTURE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM IS EXPECTED AS
WINDS TURN BACK TO A NORTHERN FLOW. SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF ERIKA WILL ALSO CUT DOWN OUR RAIN CHANCES...BUT FOR NOW
HAVE AT ISOLATED MONDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
STILL MANAGE TO REACH THE LOWER 90S EACH DAY INLAND AREAS...WITH
UPPER 80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS. /22

&&

.AVIATION... 27.12Z TAF ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 28.12Z.
WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 3 TO 6 KNOTS THROUGH 12Z
FRI. 32/EE

&&

.MARINE...A MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS WILL
BE LIKELY THIS MORNING GRADUALLY SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST
DIMINISHING TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY MOSTLY
LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SAT AS A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
ALOFT REFLECTS NEAR THE SURFACE...GENERALLY SOUTH OF MOBILE BAY AND
DAUPHIN ISLAND. OTHERWISE...A LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE SURFACE
CONTINUES OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF. A BETTER FLOW FROM THE EAST
CAN BE EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK POSSIBLY SHIFTING MORE NORTH BY
MIDWEEK DEPENDING ON THE POSITION OF ERIKA LATE IN THE PERIOD. FOR
NOW LITTLE CHANGE IS SEAS IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      86  66  90  69  88 /  00  00  05  05  20
PENSACOLA   89  70  88  72  86 /  00  00  05  20  40
DESTIN      88  74  89  74  86 /  00  00  20  20  50
EVERGREEN   89  65  92  68  88 /  00  00  20  05  40
WAYNESBORO  88  63  92  66  90 /  00  00  05  05  20
CAMDEN      89  66  92  69  89 /  00  00  05  05  30
CRESTVIEW   91  62  90  70  87 /  00  00  20  20  50

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 271007
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
507 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO
BE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH A MID TO UPPER TROF MAINTAINING STRENGTH
ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION AND LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY
THROUGH THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUALLY WEAKENING TREND
BEGINNING BY EARLY FRI MORNING. WITH THIS PATTERN EXPECT ANOTHER
ROUND OF DRY SUNNY WEATHER TODAY AND CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH MAINLY
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS NEAR THE SFC...THOUGH STILL RUNNING A DEGREE
OR TWO BELOW THE CURRENT 00Z MAV GUIDANCE. LATEST THICKNESS VALUES
IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS REASONING WITH 1000 TO 500
THICKNESS VALUES CHANGING LITTLE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO WITH
LIGHT WINDS POSSIBLY DECOUPLING IN SOME AREAS ESPECIALLY WELL TO THE
NORTH COMBINED WITH SURFACE DEWPTS CLIMBING TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
60S MOST INLAND AREAS COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG FORMING AFTER
MIDNIGHT LINGERING UNTIL AROUND 12Z SAT MORNING.

AS FOR TEMPS STILL FLIRTING WITH MORE RECORD LOWS THIS MORNING FOR
BOTH MOBILE AND PENSACOLA INCLUDING MOST INLAND AREAS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE RECORD LOW FOR TODAY FOR MOBILE IS CURRENTLY 62
SET IN 1958 AND 66 FOR PENSACOLA ALSO SET IN 1958. FOR TODAY WILL
LEAN TOWARDS THE COOLER MET GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY...MID TO UPPER
80S FOR AREAS GENERALLY WEST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR AND THE UPPER 80S
TO AROUND 90 TO THE EAST...AND THE COOLER MAV TEMPS FOR TONIGHT
MAINLY DUE TO COOLER DRIER AIR STILL ADVECTING SOUTHWARDS OVER THE
REGION. FOR TOMORROW MORNING A SIMILAR PATTERN CONTINUES ESPECIALLY
FOR MOBILE WHERE THE RECORD LOW IS 66 FOR THE 28TH AND 67 FOR
PENSACOLA. CURRENT FORECAST TEMPS FOR TONIGHT ARE 66 FOR
MOBILE...AND 70 FOR PENSACOLA. ELSEWHERE IN THE FORECAST AREA LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND
THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. 32/EE

[FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT]...A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN SITUATED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM. TWO LARGE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEMS...ONE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND THE OTHER CENTERED OVER
THE SOUTHWEST U.S. / NORTHERN MEXICO BORDER...WITH A SMALL RIDGE
EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD TO THE UPPER MIDWEST...WILL ALSO PERSIST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM. HOWEVER...THIS UPPER RIDGE
WILL QUICKLY BREAKDOWN THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST OUT OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS PASSES
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST.

MEANWHILE A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA ALL THE WAY TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FRIDAY
MORNING. AN UPPER CUTOFF LOW SHOULD FORM OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF
OF MEXICO ON FRIDAY AS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH
BECOMES DETACHED FROM THE NORTHERN PORTION. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE TROUGH WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC ON
FRIDAY AND DEAMPLIFY. THE UPPER CUTOFF LOW WILL THEN LIFT NORTHWARD
ON SATURDAY AND MERGE WITH THE SHORTWAVE PASSING NORTH OF THE REGION.

THE DRY AIR MASS WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO TRANSITION BACK TO THE A MORE
MOIST AIR MASS COURTESY OF AN INCREASING DEEP SOUTHERN WIND FLOW.
PRECIPITABLE WATER (PW) VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 0.9 TO 1.1 INCHES
FRIDAY MORNING. MOST OF THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL OCCUR EAST OF
THE TOMBIGBEE RIVER...WITH PW VALUES RANGING FROM 1.7 TO 1.9 INCHES
BY NOON SATURDAY. WEST OF THE TOMBIGBEE RIVER THE PW VALUES WILL
INCREASE TO BETWEEN 1.2 TO 1.6 INCHES. PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG SHOULD
DEVELOP EACH NIGHT.

ADDED A FEW POP-UP SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE FORECAST ACROSS OUR FAR
EASTERN ZONES FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BUT THE BIGGEST INCREASE IN RAIN
CHANCES WILL OCCUR ON SATURDAY...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
EAST OF THE TOMBIGBEE RIVER. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEST OF THE TOMBIGBEE RIVER.

HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOONS WILL RANGE
FROM 87 TO 92 DEGREES...WITH MID 80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL
SECTIONS. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 66 TO 72
DEGREES INLAND AREAS...WITH MID 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL
SECTIONS. /22

&&

.LONG TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER HAS TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA MOVING NORTHWEST OVER THE
CARIBBEAN ISLANDS ON SUNDAY...AND JUST OFF THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA
ON MONDAY. LOCALLY WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE ADEQUATE MOISTURE ACROSS
THE REGION ON SUNDAY WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS.
IF THE FORECAST TRACK KEEPS ERIKA TO OUR EAST...A GRADUAL DECREASE
IN MOISTURE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM IS EXPECTED AS
WINDS TURN BACK TO A NORTHERN FLOW. SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF ERIKA WILL ALSO CUT DOWN OUR RAIN CHANCES...BUT FOR NOW
HAVE AT ISOLATED MONDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
STILL MANAGE TO REACH THE LOWER 90S EACH DAY INLAND AREAS...WITH
UPPER 80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS. /22

&&

.AVIATION... 27.12Z TAF ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 28.12Z.
WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 3 TO 6 KNOTS THROUGH 12Z
FRI. 32/EE

&&

.MARINE...A MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS WILL
BE LIKELY THIS MORNING GRADUALLY SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST
DIMINISHING TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY MOSTLY
LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SAT AS A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
ALOFT REFLECTS NEAR THE SURFACE...GENERALLY SOUTH OF MOBILE BAY AND
DAUPHIN ISLAND. OTHERWISE...A LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE SURFACE
CONTINUES OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF. A BETTER FLOW FROM THE EAST
CAN BE EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK POSSIBLY SHIFTING MORE NORTH BY
MIDWEEK DEPENDING ON THE POSITION OF ERIKA LATE IN THE PERIOD. FOR
NOW LITTLE CHANGE IS SEAS IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      86  66  90  69  88 /  00  00  05  05  20
PENSACOLA   89  70  88  72  86 /  00  00  05  20  40
DESTIN      88  74  89  74  86 /  00  00  20  20  50
EVERGREEN   89  65  92  68  88 /  00  00  20  05  40
WAYNESBORO  88  63  92  66  90 /  00  00  05  05  20
CAMDEN      89  66  92  69  89 /  00  00  05  05  30
CRESTVIEW   91  62  90  70  87 /  00  00  20  20  50

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 271007
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
507 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO
BE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH A MID TO UPPER TROF MAINTAINING STRENGTH
ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION AND LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY
THROUGH THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUALLY WEAKENING TREND
BEGINNING BY EARLY FRI MORNING. WITH THIS PATTERN EXPECT ANOTHER
ROUND OF DRY SUNNY WEATHER TODAY AND CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH MAINLY
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS NEAR THE SFC...THOUGH STILL RUNNING A DEGREE
OR TWO BELOW THE CURRENT 00Z MAV GUIDANCE. LATEST THICKNESS VALUES
IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS REASONING WITH 1000 TO 500
THICKNESS VALUES CHANGING LITTLE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO WITH
LIGHT WINDS POSSIBLY DECOUPLING IN SOME AREAS ESPECIALLY WELL TO THE
NORTH COMBINED WITH SURFACE DEWPTS CLIMBING TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
60S MOST INLAND AREAS COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG FORMING AFTER
MIDNIGHT LINGERING UNTIL AROUND 12Z SAT MORNING.

AS FOR TEMPS STILL FLIRTING WITH MORE RECORD LOWS THIS MORNING FOR
BOTH MOBILE AND PENSACOLA INCLUDING MOST INLAND AREAS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE RECORD LOW FOR TODAY FOR MOBILE IS CURRENTLY 62
SET IN 1958 AND 66 FOR PENSACOLA ALSO SET IN 1958. FOR TODAY WILL
LEAN TOWARDS THE COOLER MET GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY...MID TO UPPER
80S FOR AREAS GENERALLY WEST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR AND THE UPPER 80S
TO AROUND 90 TO THE EAST...AND THE COOLER MAV TEMPS FOR TONIGHT
MAINLY DUE TO COOLER DRIER AIR STILL ADVECTING SOUTHWARDS OVER THE
REGION. FOR TOMORROW MORNING A SIMILAR PATTERN CONTINUES ESPECIALLY
FOR MOBILE WHERE THE RECORD LOW IS 66 FOR THE 28TH AND 67 FOR
PENSACOLA. CURRENT FORECAST TEMPS FOR TONIGHT ARE 66 FOR
MOBILE...AND 70 FOR PENSACOLA. ELSEWHERE IN THE FORECAST AREA LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND
THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. 32/EE

[FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT]...A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN SITUATED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM. TWO LARGE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEMS...ONE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND THE OTHER CENTERED OVER
THE SOUTHWEST U.S. / NORTHERN MEXICO BORDER...WITH A SMALL RIDGE
EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD TO THE UPPER MIDWEST...WILL ALSO PERSIST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM. HOWEVER...THIS UPPER RIDGE
WILL QUICKLY BREAKDOWN THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST OUT OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS PASSES
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST.

MEANWHILE A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA ALL THE WAY TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FRIDAY
MORNING. AN UPPER CUTOFF LOW SHOULD FORM OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF
OF MEXICO ON FRIDAY AS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH
BECOMES DETACHED FROM THE NORTHERN PORTION. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE TROUGH WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC ON
FRIDAY AND DEAMPLIFY. THE UPPER CUTOFF LOW WILL THEN LIFT NORTHWARD
ON SATURDAY AND MERGE WITH THE SHORTWAVE PASSING NORTH OF THE REGION.

THE DRY AIR MASS WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO TRANSITION BACK TO THE A MORE
MOIST AIR MASS COURTESY OF AN INCREASING DEEP SOUTHERN WIND FLOW.
PRECIPITABLE WATER (PW) VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 0.9 TO 1.1 INCHES
FRIDAY MORNING. MOST OF THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL OCCUR EAST OF
THE TOMBIGBEE RIVER...WITH PW VALUES RANGING FROM 1.7 TO 1.9 INCHES
BY NOON SATURDAY. WEST OF THE TOMBIGBEE RIVER THE PW VALUES WILL
INCREASE TO BETWEEN 1.2 TO 1.6 INCHES. PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG SHOULD
DEVELOP EACH NIGHT.

ADDED A FEW POP-UP SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE FORECAST ACROSS OUR FAR
EASTERN ZONES FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BUT THE BIGGEST INCREASE IN RAIN
CHANCES WILL OCCUR ON SATURDAY...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
EAST OF THE TOMBIGBEE RIVER. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEST OF THE TOMBIGBEE RIVER.

HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOONS WILL RANGE
FROM 87 TO 92 DEGREES...WITH MID 80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL
SECTIONS. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 66 TO 72
DEGREES INLAND AREAS...WITH MID 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL
SECTIONS. /22

&&

.LONG TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER HAS TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA MOVING NORTHWEST OVER THE
CARIBBEAN ISLANDS ON SUNDAY...AND JUST OFF THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA
ON MONDAY. LOCALLY WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE ADEQUATE MOISTURE ACROSS
THE REGION ON SUNDAY WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS.
IF THE FORECAST TRACK KEEPS ERIKA TO OUR EAST...A GRADUAL DECREASE
IN MOISTURE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM IS EXPECTED AS
WINDS TURN BACK TO A NORTHERN FLOW. SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF ERIKA WILL ALSO CUT DOWN OUR RAIN CHANCES...BUT FOR NOW
HAVE AT ISOLATED MONDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
STILL MANAGE TO REACH THE LOWER 90S EACH DAY INLAND AREAS...WITH
UPPER 80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS. /22

&&

.AVIATION... 27.12Z TAF ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 28.12Z.
WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 3 TO 6 KNOTS THROUGH 12Z
FRI. 32/EE

&&

.MARINE...A MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS WILL
BE LIKELY THIS MORNING GRADUALLY SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST
DIMINISHING TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY MOSTLY
LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SAT AS A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
ALOFT REFLECTS NEAR THE SURFACE...GENERALLY SOUTH OF MOBILE BAY AND
DAUPHIN ISLAND. OTHERWISE...A LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE SURFACE
CONTINUES OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF. A BETTER FLOW FROM THE EAST
CAN BE EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK POSSIBLY SHIFTING MORE NORTH BY
MIDWEEK DEPENDING ON THE POSITION OF ERIKA LATE IN THE PERIOD. FOR
NOW LITTLE CHANGE IS SEAS IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      86  66  90  69  88 /  00  00  05  05  20
PENSACOLA   89  70  88  72  86 /  00  00  05  20  40
DESTIN      88  74  89  74  86 /  00  00  20  20  50
EVERGREEN   89  65  92  68  88 /  00  00  20  05  40
WAYNESBORO  88  63  92  66  90 /  00  00  05  05  20
CAMDEN      89  66  92  69  89 /  00  00  05  05  30
CRESTVIEW   91  62  90  70  87 /  00  00  20  20  50

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMOB 262059
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
359 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...[TONIGHT AND THURSDAY]...THE LARGE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY.
MEANWHILE...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST. THE RESULTING DEEP LAYER NORTHERLY FLOW PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING A COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIRMASS INTO THE REGION.
THE CLEAR SKIES AND DRY AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING TONIGHT WITH LOWS AGAIN FALLING TO NEAR RECORD LEVELS (62 AT
MOB AND 66 AT PNS). THURSDAY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS. HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER...IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90. /13

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS HAVE KEPT GOOD RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY IN CUTTING OFF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WHICH HAS BEEN ANCHORED OVER OUR REGION THIS WEEK. AS A RESULT
A CUT OFF LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. THE
BIGGEST CHANGE LOCALLY IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER IS MORNING LOWS
WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER FRIDAY MORNING AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE AS A MORE SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW DEVELOPS. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL GENERALLY FALL INTO THE MID 60S AND THEN LOW TO MID 70S
ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S
AND LOW 90S IN THE INTERIOR. /08 JW

.LONG TERM...[FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...AGAIN...MODELS HAVE
BEEN QUITE CONSISTENT AT KEEPING A LOW PRESSURE PATTERN ALOFT OVER
THE FORECAST AREA INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK IN ONE FORM OR
ANOTHER. CURRENT TREND IS TO HAVE THE CUT OFF LOW GET CAUGHT UP IN
THE MAIN FLOW ALOFT...EJECTING THE ASSOCIATED ENERGY NORTHEASTERLY
OUT OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY WHILE THE MAIN TROUGH DEEPENS OVER US. AS A
RESULT... ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD AND THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ESTABLISHED EARLIER WILL
BECOME MORE OF A DIURNAL FEATURE WITH WINDS TURNING MORE OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT UNDER A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. ON THE UPSIDE...THE
PROJECTED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL CREATE A VERY STRONG VERTICAL
SHEAR VECTOR OVER THE REGION WHICH WOULD MAKE IT VERY DIFFICULT FOR A
TROPICAL SYSTEM OF ANY INTENSITY TO SURVIVE. REGARDING...TROPICAL
SYSTEMS...TROPICAL STORM ERIKA IS CURRENTLY PROJECTED TO POSSIBLY
IMPACT THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA ON MONDAY. THE
LATEST GFS AND EURO MODEL KEEP ERIKA EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. AS A
RESULT, KEPT A MILD FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH SLIGHT CHC TO LOW
END CHC POPS PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES TRENDING TOWARD CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR ERIKA CLOSELY FOR ANY POTENTIAL
CHANGES IN ITS EXPECTED TRACK AND INTENSITY. /08 JW

&&

.AVIATION...18Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS. /13

&&

.MARINE...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING DUE TO COOL AIR DRAINAGE. A WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL THEN
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BECOMING EASTERLY EARLY NEXT WEEK. /13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      63  88  67  90  69 /  00  00  00  05  05
PENSACOLA   68  88  72  88  72 /  00  00  00  05  05
DESTIN      73  88  75  89  77 /  00  00  00  05  05
EVERGREEN   60  89  64  91  70 /  00  00  00  05  05
WAYNESBORO  60  88  63  92  66 /  00  00  00  05  05
CAMDEN      61  89  64  92  69 /  00  00  00  05  05
CRESTVIEW   60  90  64  91  67 /  00  00  00  05  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMOB 262059
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
359 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...[TONIGHT AND THURSDAY]...THE LARGE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY.
MEANWHILE...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST. THE RESULTING DEEP LAYER NORTHERLY FLOW PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING A COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIRMASS INTO THE REGION.
THE CLEAR SKIES AND DRY AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING TONIGHT WITH LOWS AGAIN FALLING TO NEAR RECORD LEVELS (62 AT
MOB AND 66 AT PNS). THURSDAY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS. HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER...IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90. /13

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS HAVE KEPT GOOD RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY IN CUTTING OFF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WHICH HAS BEEN ANCHORED OVER OUR REGION THIS WEEK. AS A RESULT
A CUT OFF LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. THE
BIGGEST CHANGE LOCALLY IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER IS MORNING LOWS
WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER FRIDAY MORNING AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE AS A MORE SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW DEVELOPS. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL GENERALLY FALL INTO THE MID 60S AND THEN LOW TO MID 70S
ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S
AND LOW 90S IN THE INTERIOR. /08 JW

.LONG TERM...[FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...AGAIN...MODELS HAVE
BEEN QUITE CONSISTENT AT KEEPING A LOW PRESSURE PATTERN ALOFT OVER
THE FORECAST AREA INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK IN ONE FORM OR
ANOTHER. CURRENT TREND IS TO HAVE THE CUT OFF LOW GET CAUGHT UP IN
THE MAIN FLOW ALOFT...EJECTING THE ASSOCIATED ENERGY NORTHEASTERLY
OUT OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY WHILE THE MAIN TROUGH DEEPENS OVER US. AS A
RESULT... ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD AND THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ESTABLISHED EARLIER WILL
BECOME MORE OF A DIURNAL FEATURE WITH WINDS TURNING MORE OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT UNDER A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. ON THE UPSIDE...THE
PROJECTED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL CREATE A VERY STRONG VERTICAL
SHEAR VECTOR OVER THE REGION WHICH WOULD MAKE IT VERY DIFFICULT FOR A
TROPICAL SYSTEM OF ANY INTENSITY TO SURVIVE. REGARDING...TROPICAL
SYSTEMS...TROPICAL STORM ERIKA IS CURRENTLY PROJECTED TO POSSIBLY
IMPACT THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA ON MONDAY. THE
LATEST GFS AND EURO MODEL KEEP ERIKA EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. AS A
RESULT, KEPT A MILD FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH SLIGHT CHC TO LOW
END CHC POPS PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES TRENDING TOWARD CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR ERIKA CLOSELY FOR ANY POTENTIAL
CHANGES IN ITS EXPECTED TRACK AND INTENSITY. /08 JW

&&

.AVIATION...18Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS. /13

&&

.MARINE...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING DUE TO COOL AIR DRAINAGE. A WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL THEN
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BECOMING EASTERLY EARLY NEXT WEEK. /13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      63  88  67  90  69 /  00  00  00  05  05
PENSACOLA   68  88  72  88  72 /  00  00  00  05  05
DESTIN      73  88  75  89  77 /  00  00  00  05  05
EVERGREEN   60  89  64  91  70 /  00  00  00  05  05
WAYNESBORO  60  88  63  92  66 /  00  00  00  05  05
CAMDEN      61  89  64  92  69 /  00  00  00  05  05
CRESTVIEW   60  90  64  91  67 /  00  00  00  05  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 261725 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1225 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
/13

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 511 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015/

SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...UPPER TROF AXIS JUST TO THE EAST OF
THE CWFA THIS MORNING IS PROGGED TO DRIFT WEST OVER AL AND THE
ADJACENT GULF WATERS OF AL...MS AND LA BY 12Z THU. AT THE SFC A WEAK
INVERTED TROF OF LOW PRESSURE MOSTLY ALONG THE GA/NE FL COAST SHIFTS
WEST TO THE EASTERN FL PANHANDLE THROUGH TONIGHT AND EARLY THU
MORNING. WITH THIS PATTERN CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION WITH PWATS STILL BELOW AND INCH FOR MOST
AREAS.

AS FOR TEMPS WITH PLENTY OF MIXING STILL OCCURRING NEAR THE SFC
ESPECIALLY OVER THE LOWER HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA COMBINED WITH AN
AREA OF HIGH THIN CIRRUS MOSTLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE GENERALLY
FROM MOBILE TO ANDALUSIA BELIEVE SOME AREAS MAY NOT REACH THE
PREDICATED LOWS THAT WERE EARLIER FORECASTED FOR THIS MORNING...MAYBE
1 TO 2 DEGREES WARMER. CURRENTLY WILL USE A BLEND OF THE MAV AND
MET FOR TEMPS THROUGH TONIGHT AND ADJUST SLIGHTLY FOR CONSISTENCY
WITH SURROUNDING WFOS. HIGHS TODAY WILL CLIMB TO THE MID TO UPPER
80S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE UPPER 80S CLOSER TO THE COAST.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE A TAD WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT RANGING
FROM THE LOWER 60S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S
CLOSER TO THE COAST. THE DRY AIR MASS WILL ALSO BRING ANOTHER NIGHT
OF COOL TEMPERATURES (AS MUCH AS 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL) TO THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR A LOW OF 63 AT
MOBILE AL...67 AT PENSACOLA FL...AND 60 DEGREES FROM WAYNESBORO MS
TO EVERGREEN AL. THESE FORECAST NUMBERS WOULD BE NEAR RECORD LOWS.
THE CURRENT RECORD LOW AT MOBILE IS 62...AND THE CURRENT RECORD LOW
AT PENSACOLA IS 66. 32/EE

[THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT]...A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM EASTERN CANADA ALL THE WAY TO THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE THURSDAY MORNING. TWO LARGE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS
WILL BOOKEND THIS UPPER TROUGH...ONE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND
THE OTHER OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHWARD
OVER THE PLAINS STATES. AN UPPER CUTOFF LOW SHOULD FORM OVER THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON FRIDAY AS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
UPPER TROUGH BECOMES DETACHED FROM THE NORTHERN PORTION. THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD OVER THE
NORTHERN ATLANTIC THURSDAY NIGHT AND DEAMPLIFY. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS
ON THURSDAY AND OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST ON FRIDAY. A DRY AIR MASS
WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH...WITH SKIES REMAINING
CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE DRY AIR MASS
WILL ALSO BRING ANOTHER NIGHT OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES (AROUND 3
TO 5 DEGREES) TO THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. FORECAST CALLS
FOR A NEAR RECORD LOW OF 67 AT MOBILE AL. THE CURRENT RECORD LOW AT
MOBILE IS 66. FORECAST LOW AT PENSACOLA FL IS 70...3 DEGREES ABOVE
THE CURRENT RECORD LOW OF 67.

HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS WILL RANGE
FROM 87 TO 92 DEGREES. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE WARMER
AND RANGE FROM 68 TO 73 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...WITH MID 70S ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS. /22

LONG TERM [SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]...THE UPPER CUTOFF LOW SHOULD
FORM OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD
OVER THE WEEKEND AND MERGE WITH THE SHORTWAVE PASSING NORTH OF THE
REGION. IT IS AROUND THIS TIME FRAME LATE IN THE WEEK THAT THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA APPROACHING THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF FLORIDA. LOCALLY WE WILL SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AS RETURN FLOW SETS
UP ON THE BACKSIDE A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING ALONG THE EAST
COAST AND NORTHEAST GULF REGION. SO WE WILL SEE A RETURN TO ISOLATED
AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING SATURDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL MANAGE TO REACH NEAR 90 DEGREES EACH DAY
INLAND AREAS...WITH MID/UPPER 80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL
SECTIONS. /22

AVIATION... 26.12Z TAF ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 27.12Z
WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY NORTH AT 4 TO 8 KNOTS THROUGH 12Z THU. 32/EE

MARINE...A MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW THIS
MORNING...MOSTLY ASSOCIATED WITH GOOD COOL AIR DRAINAGE OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY BY MID MORNING AS
INLAND TEMPS BEGIN TO CLIMB DUE TO GOOD SOLAR HEATING AND INCREASED
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL THEN BUILD SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY THU DUE TO MORE COOL AIR DRAINAGE...FOLLOWED BY A WEAK
ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING BY THU AFTERNOON. A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL
THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND SHIFTING EAST AND BUILDING BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      88  63  89  67  90 /  00  00  00  00  05
PENSACOLA   89  67  90  70  88 /  00  00  00  00  05
DESTIN      88  70  90  73  89 /  00  00  00  00  05
EVERGREEN   88  60  90  64  91 /  00  00  00  00  05
WAYNESBORO  87  60  89  62  92 /  00  00  00  00  05
CAMDEN      86  61  90  64  92 /  00  00  00  00  05
CRESTVIEW   91  58  92  63  91 /  00  00  00  00  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 261725 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1225 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
/13

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 511 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015/

SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...UPPER TROF AXIS JUST TO THE EAST OF
THE CWFA THIS MORNING IS PROGGED TO DRIFT WEST OVER AL AND THE
ADJACENT GULF WATERS OF AL...MS AND LA BY 12Z THU. AT THE SFC A WEAK
INVERTED TROF OF LOW PRESSURE MOSTLY ALONG THE GA/NE FL COAST SHIFTS
WEST TO THE EASTERN FL PANHANDLE THROUGH TONIGHT AND EARLY THU
MORNING. WITH THIS PATTERN CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION WITH PWATS STILL BELOW AND INCH FOR MOST
AREAS.

AS FOR TEMPS WITH PLENTY OF MIXING STILL OCCURRING NEAR THE SFC
ESPECIALLY OVER THE LOWER HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA COMBINED WITH AN
AREA OF HIGH THIN CIRRUS MOSTLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE GENERALLY
FROM MOBILE TO ANDALUSIA BELIEVE SOME AREAS MAY NOT REACH THE
PREDICATED LOWS THAT WERE EARLIER FORECASTED FOR THIS MORNING...MAYBE
1 TO 2 DEGREES WARMER. CURRENTLY WILL USE A BLEND OF THE MAV AND
MET FOR TEMPS THROUGH TONIGHT AND ADJUST SLIGHTLY FOR CONSISTENCY
WITH SURROUNDING WFOS. HIGHS TODAY WILL CLIMB TO THE MID TO UPPER
80S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE UPPER 80S CLOSER TO THE COAST.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE A TAD WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT RANGING
FROM THE LOWER 60S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S
CLOSER TO THE COAST. THE DRY AIR MASS WILL ALSO BRING ANOTHER NIGHT
OF COOL TEMPERATURES (AS MUCH AS 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL) TO THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR A LOW OF 63 AT
MOBILE AL...67 AT PENSACOLA FL...AND 60 DEGREES FROM WAYNESBORO MS
TO EVERGREEN AL. THESE FORECAST NUMBERS WOULD BE NEAR RECORD LOWS.
THE CURRENT RECORD LOW AT MOBILE IS 62...AND THE CURRENT RECORD LOW
AT PENSACOLA IS 66. 32/EE

[THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT]...A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM EASTERN CANADA ALL THE WAY TO THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE THURSDAY MORNING. TWO LARGE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS
WILL BOOKEND THIS UPPER TROUGH...ONE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND
THE OTHER OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHWARD
OVER THE PLAINS STATES. AN UPPER CUTOFF LOW SHOULD FORM OVER THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON FRIDAY AS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
UPPER TROUGH BECOMES DETACHED FROM THE NORTHERN PORTION. THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD OVER THE
NORTHERN ATLANTIC THURSDAY NIGHT AND DEAMPLIFY. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS
ON THURSDAY AND OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST ON FRIDAY. A DRY AIR MASS
WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH...WITH SKIES REMAINING
CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE DRY AIR MASS
WILL ALSO BRING ANOTHER NIGHT OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES (AROUND 3
TO 5 DEGREES) TO THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. FORECAST CALLS
FOR A NEAR RECORD LOW OF 67 AT MOBILE AL. THE CURRENT RECORD LOW AT
MOBILE IS 66. FORECAST LOW AT PENSACOLA FL IS 70...3 DEGREES ABOVE
THE CURRENT RECORD LOW OF 67.

HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS WILL RANGE
FROM 87 TO 92 DEGREES. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE WARMER
AND RANGE FROM 68 TO 73 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...WITH MID 70S ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS. /22

LONG TERM [SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]...THE UPPER CUTOFF LOW SHOULD
FORM OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD
OVER THE WEEKEND AND MERGE WITH THE SHORTWAVE PASSING NORTH OF THE
REGION. IT IS AROUND THIS TIME FRAME LATE IN THE WEEK THAT THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA APPROACHING THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF FLORIDA. LOCALLY WE WILL SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AS RETURN FLOW SETS
UP ON THE BACKSIDE A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING ALONG THE EAST
COAST AND NORTHEAST GULF REGION. SO WE WILL SEE A RETURN TO ISOLATED
AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING SATURDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL MANAGE TO REACH NEAR 90 DEGREES EACH DAY
INLAND AREAS...WITH MID/UPPER 80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL
SECTIONS. /22

AVIATION... 26.12Z TAF ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 27.12Z
WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY NORTH AT 4 TO 8 KNOTS THROUGH 12Z THU. 32/EE

MARINE...A MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW THIS
MORNING...MOSTLY ASSOCIATED WITH GOOD COOL AIR DRAINAGE OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY BY MID MORNING AS
INLAND TEMPS BEGIN TO CLIMB DUE TO GOOD SOLAR HEATING AND INCREASED
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL THEN BUILD SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY THU DUE TO MORE COOL AIR DRAINAGE...FOLLOWED BY A WEAK
ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING BY THU AFTERNOON. A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL
THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND SHIFTING EAST AND BUILDING BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      88  63  89  67  90 /  00  00  00  00  05
PENSACOLA   89  67  90  70  88 /  00  00  00  00  05
DESTIN      88  70  90  73  89 /  00  00  00  00  05
EVERGREEN   88  60  90  64  91 /  00  00  00  00  05
WAYNESBORO  87  60  89  62  92 /  00  00  00  00  05
CAMDEN      86  61  90  64  92 /  00  00  00  00  05
CRESTVIEW   91  58  92  63  91 /  00  00  00  00  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMOB 261725 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1225 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
/13

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 511 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015/

SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...UPPER TROF AXIS JUST TO THE EAST OF
THE CWFA THIS MORNING IS PROGGED TO DRIFT WEST OVER AL AND THE
ADJACENT GULF WATERS OF AL...MS AND LA BY 12Z THU. AT THE SFC A WEAK
INVERTED TROF OF LOW PRESSURE MOSTLY ALONG THE GA/NE FL COAST SHIFTS
WEST TO THE EASTERN FL PANHANDLE THROUGH TONIGHT AND EARLY THU
MORNING. WITH THIS PATTERN CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION WITH PWATS STILL BELOW AND INCH FOR MOST
AREAS.

AS FOR TEMPS WITH PLENTY OF MIXING STILL OCCURRING NEAR THE SFC
ESPECIALLY OVER THE LOWER HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA COMBINED WITH AN
AREA OF HIGH THIN CIRRUS MOSTLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE GENERALLY
FROM MOBILE TO ANDALUSIA BELIEVE SOME AREAS MAY NOT REACH THE
PREDICATED LOWS THAT WERE EARLIER FORECASTED FOR THIS MORNING...MAYBE
1 TO 2 DEGREES WARMER. CURRENTLY WILL USE A BLEND OF THE MAV AND
MET FOR TEMPS THROUGH TONIGHT AND ADJUST SLIGHTLY FOR CONSISTENCY
WITH SURROUNDING WFOS. HIGHS TODAY WILL CLIMB TO THE MID TO UPPER
80S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE UPPER 80S CLOSER TO THE COAST.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE A TAD WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT RANGING
FROM THE LOWER 60S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S
CLOSER TO THE COAST. THE DRY AIR MASS WILL ALSO BRING ANOTHER NIGHT
OF COOL TEMPERATURES (AS MUCH AS 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL) TO THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR A LOW OF 63 AT
MOBILE AL...67 AT PENSACOLA FL...AND 60 DEGREES FROM WAYNESBORO MS
TO EVERGREEN AL. THESE FORECAST NUMBERS WOULD BE NEAR RECORD LOWS.
THE CURRENT RECORD LOW AT MOBILE IS 62...AND THE CURRENT RECORD LOW
AT PENSACOLA IS 66. 32/EE

[THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT]...A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM EASTERN CANADA ALL THE WAY TO THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE THURSDAY MORNING. TWO LARGE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS
WILL BOOKEND THIS UPPER TROUGH...ONE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND
THE OTHER OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHWARD
OVER THE PLAINS STATES. AN UPPER CUTOFF LOW SHOULD FORM OVER THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON FRIDAY AS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
UPPER TROUGH BECOMES DETACHED FROM THE NORTHERN PORTION. THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD OVER THE
NORTHERN ATLANTIC THURSDAY NIGHT AND DEAMPLIFY. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS
ON THURSDAY AND OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST ON FRIDAY. A DRY AIR MASS
WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH...WITH SKIES REMAINING
CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE DRY AIR MASS
WILL ALSO BRING ANOTHER NIGHT OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES (AROUND 3
TO 5 DEGREES) TO THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. FORECAST CALLS
FOR A NEAR RECORD LOW OF 67 AT MOBILE AL. THE CURRENT RECORD LOW AT
MOBILE IS 66. FORECAST LOW AT PENSACOLA FL IS 70...3 DEGREES ABOVE
THE CURRENT RECORD LOW OF 67.

HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS WILL RANGE
FROM 87 TO 92 DEGREES. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE WARMER
AND RANGE FROM 68 TO 73 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...WITH MID 70S ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS. /22

LONG TERM [SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]...THE UPPER CUTOFF LOW SHOULD
FORM OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD
OVER THE WEEKEND AND MERGE WITH THE SHORTWAVE PASSING NORTH OF THE
REGION. IT IS AROUND THIS TIME FRAME LATE IN THE WEEK THAT THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA APPROACHING THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF FLORIDA. LOCALLY WE WILL SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AS RETURN FLOW SETS
UP ON THE BACKSIDE A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING ALONG THE EAST
COAST AND NORTHEAST GULF REGION. SO WE WILL SEE A RETURN TO ISOLATED
AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING SATURDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL MANAGE TO REACH NEAR 90 DEGREES EACH DAY
INLAND AREAS...WITH MID/UPPER 80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL
SECTIONS. /22

AVIATION... 26.12Z TAF ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 27.12Z
WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY NORTH AT 4 TO 8 KNOTS THROUGH 12Z THU. 32/EE

MARINE...A MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW THIS
MORNING...MOSTLY ASSOCIATED WITH GOOD COOL AIR DRAINAGE OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY BY MID MORNING AS
INLAND TEMPS BEGIN TO CLIMB DUE TO GOOD SOLAR HEATING AND INCREASED
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL THEN BUILD SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY THU DUE TO MORE COOL AIR DRAINAGE...FOLLOWED BY A WEAK
ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING BY THU AFTERNOON. A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL
THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND SHIFTING EAST AND BUILDING BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      88  63  89  67  90 /  00  00  00  00  05
PENSACOLA   89  67  90  70  88 /  00  00  00  00  05
DESTIN      88  70  90  73  89 /  00  00  00  00  05
EVERGREEN   88  60  90  64  91 /  00  00  00  00  05
WAYNESBORO  87  60  89  62  92 /  00  00  00  00  05
CAMDEN      86  61  90  64  92 /  00  00  00  00  05
CRESTVIEW   91  58  92  63  91 /  00  00  00  00  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 261725 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1225 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
/13

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 511 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015/

SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...UPPER TROF AXIS JUST TO THE EAST OF
THE CWFA THIS MORNING IS PROGGED TO DRIFT WEST OVER AL AND THE
ADJACENT GULF WATERS OF AL...MS AND LA BY 12Z THU. AT THE SFC A WEAK
INVERTED TROF OF LOW PRESSURE MOSTLY ALONG THE GA/NE FL COAST SHIFTS
WEST TO THE EASTERN FL PANHANDLE THROUGH TONIGHT AND EARLY THU
MORNING. WITH THIS PATTERN CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION WITH PWATS STILL BELOW AND INCH FOR MOST
AREAS.

AS FOR TEMPS WITH PLENTY OF MIXING STILL OCCURRING NEAR THE SFC
ESPECIALLY OVER THE LOWER HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA COMBINED WITH AN
AREA OF HIGH THIN CIRRUS MOSTLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE GENERALLY
FROM MOBILE TO ANDALUSIA BELIEVE SOME AREAS MAY NOT REACH THE
PREDICATED LOWS THAT WERE EARLIER FORECASTED FOR THIS MORNING...MAYBE
1 TO 2 DEGREES WARMER. CURRENTLY WILL USE A BLEND OF THE MAV AND
MET FOR TEMPS THROUGH TONIGHT AND ADJUST SLIGHTLY FOR CONSISTENCY
WITH SURROUNDING WFOS. HIGHS TODAY WILL CLIMB TO THE MID TO UPPER
80S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE UPPER 80S CLOSER TO THE COAST.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE A TAD WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT RANGING
FROM THE LOWER 60S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S
CLOSER TO THE COAST. THE DRY AIR MASS WILL ALSO BRING ANOTHER NIGHT
OF COOL TEMPERATURES (AS MUCH AS 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL) TO THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR A LOW OF 63 AT
MOBILE AL...67 AT PENSACOLA FL...AND 60 DEGREES FROM WAYNESBORO MS
TO EVERGREEN AL. THESE FORECAST NUMBERS WOULD BE NEAR RECORD LOWS.
THE CURRENT RECORD LOW AT MOBILE IS 62...AND THE CURRENT RECORD LOW
AT PENSACOLA IS 66. 32/EE

[THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT]...A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM EASTERN CANADA ALL THE WAY TO THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE THURSDAY MORNING. TWO LARGE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS
WILL BOOKEND THIS UPPER TROUGH...ONE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND
THE OTHER OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHWARD
OVER THE PLAINS STATES. AN UPPER CUTOFF LOW SHOULD FORM OVER THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON FRIDAY AS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
UPPER TROUGH BECOMES DETACHED FROM THE NORTHERN PORTION. THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD OVER THE
NORTHERN ATLANTIC THURSDAY NIGHT AND DEAMPLIFY. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS
ON THURSDAY AND OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST ON FRIDAY. A DRY AIR MASS
WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH...WITH SKIES REMAINING
CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE DRY AIR MASS
WILL ALSO BRING ANOTHER NIGHT OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES (AROUND 3
TO 5 DEGREES) TO THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. FORECAST CALLS
FOR A NEAR RECORD LOW OF 67 AT MOBILE AL. THE CURRENT RECORD LOW AT
MOBILE IS 66. FORECAST LOW AT PENSACOLA FL IS 70...3 DEGREES ABOVE
THE CURRENT RECORD LOW OF 67.

HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS WILL RANGE
FROM 87 TO 92 DEGREES. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE WARMER
AND RANGE FROM 68 TO 73 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...WITH MID 70S ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS. /22

LONG TERM [SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]...THE UPPER CUTOFF LOW SHOULD
FORM OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD
OVER THE WEEKEND AND MERGE WITH THE SHORTWAVE PASSING NORTH OF THE
REGION. IT IS AROUND THIS TIME FRAME LATE IN THE WEEK THAT THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA APPROACHING THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF FLORIDA. LOCALLY WE WILL SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AS RETURN FLOW SETS
UP ON THE BACKSIDE A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING ALONG THE EAST
COAST AND NORTHEAST GULF REGION. SO WE WILL SEE A RETURN TO ISOLATED
AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING SATURDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL MANAGE TO REACH NEAR 90 DEGREES EACH DAY
INLAND AREAS...WITH MID/UPPER 80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL
SECTIONS. /22

AVIATION... 26.12Z TAF ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 27.12Z
WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY NORTH AT 4 TO 8 KNOTS THROUGH 12Z THU. 32/EE

MARINE...A MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW THIS
MORNING...MOSTLY ASSOCIATED WITH GOOD COOL AIR DRAINAGE OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY BY MID MORNING AS
INLAND TEMPS BEGIN TO CLIMB DUE TO GOOD SOLAR HEATING AND INCREASED
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL THEN BUILD SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY THU DUE TO MORE COOL AIR DRAINAGE...FOLLOWED BY A WEAK
ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING BY THU AFTERNOON. A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL
THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND SHIFTING EAST AND BUILDING BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      88  63  89  67  90 /  00  00  00  00  05
PENSACOLA   89  67  90  70  88 /  00  00  00  00  05
DESTIN      88  70  90  73  89 /  00  00  00  00  05
EVERGREEN   88  60  90  64  91 /  00  00  00  00  05
WAYNESBORO  87  60  89  62  92 /  00  00  00  00  05
CAMDEN      86  61  90  64  92 /  00  00  00  00  05
CRESTVIEW   91  58  92  63  91 /  00  00  00  00  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMOB 261206 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
706 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.UPDATE...A RECORD LOW OF 63 HAS BEEN MET IN MOBILE THIS MORNING WHICH
BEATS THE OLD RECORD OF 64 SET IN 1891. THE RECORD LOW FOR PENSACOLA
WAS TIED AT 66 WHICH WAS SET IN 1927. 32/EE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 511 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015/

SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...UPPER TROF AXIS JUST TO THE EAST OF
THE CWFA THIS MORNING IS PROGGED TO DRIFT WEST OVER AL AND THE
ADJACENT GULF WATERS OF AL...MS AND LA BY 12Z THU. AT THE SFC A WEAK
INVERTED TROF OF LOW PRESSURE MOSTLY ALONG THE GA/NE FL COAST SHIFTS
WEST TO THE EASTERN FL PANHANDLE THROUGH TONIGHT AND EARLY THU
MORNING. WITH THIS PATTERN CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION WITH PWATS STILL BELOW AND INCH FOR MOST
AREAS.

AS FOR TEMPS WITH PLENTY OF MIXING STILL OCCURRING NEAR THE SFC
ESPECIALLY OVER THE LOWER HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA COMBINED WITH AN
AREA OF HIGH THIN CIRRUS MOSTLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE GENERALLY
FROM MOBILE TO ANDALUSIA BELIEVE SOME AREAS MAY NOT REACH THE
PREDICATED LOWS THAT WERE EARLIER FORECASTED FOR THIS MORNING...MAYBE
1 TO 2 DEGREES WARMER. CURRENTLY WILL USE A BLEND OF THE MAV AND
MET FOR TEMPS THROUGH TONIGHT AND ADJUST SLIGHTLY FOR CONSISTENCY
WITH SURROUNDING WFOS. HIGHS TODAY WILL CLIMB TO THE MID TO UPPER
80S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE UPPER 80S CLOSER TO THE COAST.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE A TAD WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT RANGING
FROM THE LOWER 60S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S
CLOSER TO THE COAST. THE DRY AIR MASS WILL ALSO BRING ANOTHER NIGHT
OF COOL TEMPERATURES (AS MUCH AS 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL) TO THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR A LOW OF 63 AT
MOBILE AL...67 AT PENSACOLA FL...AND 60 DEGREES FROM WAYNESBORO MS
TO EVERGREEN AL. THESE FORECAST NUMBERS WOULD BE NEAR RECORD LOWS.
THE CURRENT RECORD LOW AT MOBILE IS 62...AND THE CURRENT RECORD LOW
AT PENSACOLA IS 66. 32/EE

[THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT]...A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM EASTERN CANADA ALL THE WAY TO THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE THURSDAY MORNING. TWO LARGE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS
WILL BOOKEND THIS UPPER TROUGH...ONE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND
THE OTHER OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHWARD
OVER THE PLAINS STATES. AN UPPER CUTOFF LOW SHOULD FORM OVER THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON FRIDAY AS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
UPPER TROUGH BECOMES DETACHED FROM THE NORTHERN PORTION. THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD OVER THE
NORTHERN ATLANTIC THURSDAY NIGHT AND DEAMPLIFY. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS
ON THURSDAY AND OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST ON FRIDAY. A DRY AIR MASS
WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH...WITH SKIES REMAINING
CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE DRY AIR MASS
WILL ALSO BRING ANOTHER NIGHT OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES (AROUND 3
TO 5 DEGREES) TO THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. FORECAST CALLS
FOR A NEAR RECORD LOW OF 67 AT MOBILE AL. THE CURRENT RECORD LOW AT
MOBILE IS 66. FORECAST LOW AT PENSACOLA FL IS 70...3 DEGREES ABOVE
THE CURRENT RECORD LOW OF 67.

HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS WILL RANGE
FROM 87 TO 92 DEGREES. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE WARMER
AND RANGE FROM 68 TO 73 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...WITH MID 70S ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS. /22

LONG TERM [SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]...THE UPPER CUTOFF LOW SHOULD
FORM OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD
OVER THE WEEKEND AND MERGE WITH THE SHORTWAVE PASSING NORTH OF THE
REGION. IT IS AROUND THIS TIME FRAME LATE IN THE WEEK THAT THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA APPROACHING THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF FLORIDA. LOCALLY WE WILL SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AS RETURN FLOW SETS
UP ON THE BACKSIDE A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING ALONG THE EAST
COAST AND NORTHEAST GULF REGION. SO WE WILL SEE A RETURN TO ISOLATED
AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING SATURDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL MANAGE TO REACH NEAR 90 DEGREES EACH DAY
INLAND AREAS...WITH MID/UPPER 80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL
SECTIONS. /22

AVIATION... 26.12Z TAF ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 27.12Z
WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY NORTH AT 4 TO 8 KNOTS THROUGH 12Z THU. 32/EE

MARINE...A MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW THIS
MORNING...MOSTLY ASSOCIATED WITH GOOD COOL AIR DRAINAGE OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY BY MID MORNING AS
INLAND TEMPS BEGIN TO CLIMB DUE TO GOOD SOLAR HEATING AND INCREASED
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL THEN BUILD SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY THU DUE TO MORE COOL AIR DRAINAGE...FOLLOWED BY A WEAK
ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING BY THU AFTERNOON. A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL
THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND SHIFTING EAST AND BUILDING BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      88  63  89  67  90 /  00  00  00  00  05
PENSACOLA   89  67  90  70  88 /  00  00  00  00  05
DESTIN      88  70  90  73  89 /  00  00  00  00  05
EVERGREEN   88  60  90  64  91 /  00  00  00  00  05
WAYNESBORO  87  60  89  62  92 /  00  00  00  00  05
CAMDEN      86  61  90  64  92 /  00  00  00  00  05
CRESTVIEW   91  58  92  63  91 /  00  00  00  00  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMOB 261206 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
706 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.UPDATE...A RECORD LOW OF 63 HAS BEEN MET IN MOBILE THIS MORNING WHICH
BEATS THE OLD RECORD OF 64 SET IN 1891. THE RECORD LOW FOR PENSACOLA
WAS TIED AT 66 WHICH WAS SET IN 1927. 32/EE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 511 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015/

SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...UPPER TROF AXIS JUST TO THE EAST OF
THE CWFA THIS MORNING IS PROGGED TO DRIFT WEST OVER AL AND THE
ADJACENT GULF WATERS OF AL...MS AND LA BY 12Z THU. AT THE SFC A WEAK
INVERTED TROF OF LOW PRESSURE MOSTLY ALONG THE GA/NE FL COAST SHIFTS
WEST TO THE EASTERN FL PANHANDLE THROUGH TONIGHT AND EARLY THU
MORNING. WITH THIS PATTERN CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION WITH PWATS STILL BELOW AND INCH FOR MOST
AREAS.

AS FOR TEMPS WITH PLENTY OF MIXING STILL OCCURRING NEAR THE SFC
ESPECIALLY OVER THE LOWER HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA COMBINED WITH AN
AREA OF HIGH THIN CIRRUS MOSTLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE GENERALLY
FROM MOBILE TO ANDALUSIA BELIEVE SOME AREAS MAY NOT REACH THE
PREDICATED LOWS THAT WERE EARLIER FORECASTED FOR THIS MORNING...MAYBE
1 TO 2 DEGREES WARMER. CURRENTLY WILL USE A BLEND OF THE MAV AND
MET FOR TEMPS THROUGH TONIGHT AND ADJUST SLIGHTLY FOR CONSISTENCY
WITH SURROUNDING WFOS. HIGHS TODAY WILL CLIMB TO THE MID TO UPPER
80S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE UPPER 80S CLOSER TO THE COAST.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE A TAD WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT RANGING
FROM THE LOWER 60S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S
CLOSER TO THE COAST. THE DRY AIR MASS WILL ALSO BRING ANOTHER NIGHT
OF COOL TEMPERATURES (AS MUCH AS 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL) TO THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR A LOW OF 63 AT
MOBILE AL...67 AT PENSACOLA FL...AND 60 DEGREES FROM WAYNESBORO MS
TO EVERGREEN AL. THESE FORECAST NUMBERS WOULD BE NEAR RECORD LOWS.
THE CURRENT RECORD LOW AT MOBILE IS 62...AND THE CURRENT RECORD LOW
AT PENSACOLA IS 66. 32/EE

[THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT]...A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM EASTERN CANADA ALL THE WAY TO THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE THURSDAY MORNING. TWO LARGE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS
WILL BOOKEND THIS UPPER TROUGH...ONE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND
THE OTHER OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHWARD
OVER THE PLAINS STATES. AN UPPER CUTOFF LOW SHOULD FORM OVER THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON FRIDAY AS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
UPPER TROUGH BECOMES DETACHED FROM THE NORTHERN PORTION. THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD OVER THE
NORTHERN ATLANTIC THURSDAY NIGHT AND DEAMPLIFY. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS
ON THURSDAY AND OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST ON FRIDAY. A DRY AIR MASS
WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH...WITH SKIES REMAINING
CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE DRY AIR MASS
WILL ALSO BRING ANOTHER NIGHT OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES (AROUND 3
TO 5 DEGREES) TO THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. FORECAST CALLS
FOR A NEAR RECORD LOW OF 67 AT MOBILE AL. THE CURRENT RECORD LOW AT
MOBILE IS 66. FORECAST LOW AT PENSACOLA FL IS 70...3 DEGREES ABOVE
THE CURRENT RECORD LOW OF 67.

HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS WILL RANGE
FROM 87 TO 92 DEGREES. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE WARMER
AND RANGE FROM 68 TO 73 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...WITH MID 70S ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS. /22

LONG TERM [SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]...THE UPPER CUTOFF LOW SHOULD
FORM OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD
OVER THE WEEKEND AND MERGE WITH THE SHORTWAVE PASSING NORTH OF THE
REGION. IT IS AROUND THIS TIME FRAME LATE IN THE WEEK THAT THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA APPROACHING THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF FLORIDA. LOCALLY WE WILL SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AS RETURN FLOW SETS
UP ON THE BACKSIDE A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING ALONG THE EAST
COAST AND NORTHEAST GULF REGION. SO WE WILL SEE A RETURN TO ISOLATED
AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING SATURDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL MANAGE TO REACH NEAR 90 DEGREES EACH DAY
INLAND AREAS...WITH MID/UPPER 80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL
SECTIONS. /22

AVIATION... 26.12Z TAF ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 27.12Z
WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY NORTH AT 4 TO 8 KNOTS THROUGH 12Z THU. 32/EE

MARINE...A MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW THIS
MORNING...MOSTLY ASSOCIATED WITH GOOD COOL AIR DRAINAGE OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY BY MID MORNING AS
INLAND TEMPS BEGIN TO CLIMB DUE TO GOOD SOLAR HEATING AND INCREASED
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL THEN BUILD SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY THU DUE TO MORE COOL AIR DRAINAGE...FOLLOWED BY A WEAK
ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING BY THU AFTERNOON. A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL
THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND SHIFTING EAST AND BUILDING BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      88  63  89  67  90 /  00  00  00  00  05
PENSACOLA   89  67  90  70  88 /  00  00  00  00  05
DESTIN      88  70  90  73  89 /  00  00  00  00  05
EVERGREEN   88  60  90  64  91 /  00  00  00  00  05
WAYNESBORO  87  60  89  62  92 /  00  00  00  00  05
CAMDEN      86  61  90  64  92 /  00  00  00  00  05
CRESTVIEW   91  58  92  63  91 /  00  00  00  00  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 261206 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
706 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.UPDATE...A RECORD LOW OF 63 HAS BEEN MET IN MOBILE THIS MORNING WHICH
BEATS THE OLD RECORD OF 64 SET IN 1891. THE RECORD LOW FOR PENSACOLA
WAS TIED AT 66 WHICH WAS SET IN 1927. 32/EE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 511 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015/

SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...UPPER TROF AXIS JUST TO THE EAST OF
THE CWFA THIS MORNING IS PROGGED TO DRIFT WEST OVER AL AND THE
ADJACENT GULF WATERS OF AL...MS AND LA BY 12Z THU. AT THE SFC A WEAK
INVERTED TROF OF LOW PRESSURE MOSTLY ALONG THE GA/NE FL COAST SHIFTS
WEST TO THE EASTERN FL PANHANDLE THROUGH TONIGHT AND EARLY THU
MORNING. WITH THIS PATTERN CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION WITH PWATS STILL BELOW AND INCH FOR MOST
AREAS.

AS FOR TEMPS WITH PLENTY OF MIXING STILL OCCURRING NEAR THE SFC
ESPECIALLY OVER THE LOWER HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA COMBINED WITH AN
AREA OF HIGH THIN CIRRUS MOSTLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE GENERALLY
FROM MOBILE TO ANDALUSIA BELIEVE SOME AREAS MAY NOT REACH THE
PREDICATED LOWS THAT WERE EARLIER FORECASTED FOR THIS MORNING...MAYBE
1 TO 2 DEGREES WARMER. CURRENTLY WILL USE A BLEND OF THE MAV AND
MET FOR TEMPS THROUGH TONIGHT AND ADJUST SLIGHTLY FOR CONSISTENCY
WITH SURROUNDING WFOS. HIGHS TODAY WILL CLIMB TO THE MID TO UPPER
80S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE UPPER 80S CLOSER TO THE COAST.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE A TAD WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT RANGING
FROM THE LOWER 60S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S
CLOSER TO THE COAST. THE DRY AIR MASS WILL ALSO BRING ANOTHER NIGHT
OF COOL TEMPERATURES (AS MUCH AS 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL) TO THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR A LOW OF 63 AT
MOBILE AL...67 AT PENSACOLA FL...AND 60 DEGREES FROM WAYNESBORO MS
TO EVERGREEN AL. THESE FORECAST NUMBERS WOULD BE NEAR RECORD LOWS.
THE CURRENT RECORD LOW AT MOBILE IS 62...AND THE CURRENT RECORD LOW
AT PENSACOLA IS 66. 32/EE

[THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT]...A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM EASTERN CANADA ALL THE WAY TO THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE THURSDAY MORNING. TWO LARGE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS
WILL BOOKEND THIS UPPER TROUGH...ONE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND
THE OTHER OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHWARD
OVER THE PLAINS STATES. AN UPPER CUTOFF LOW SHOULD FORM OVER THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON FRIDAY AS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
UPPER TROUGH BECOMES DETACHED FROM THE NORTHERN PORTION. THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD OVER THE
NORTHERN ATLANTIC THURSDAY NIGHT AND DEAMPLIFY. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS
ON THURSDAY AND OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST ON FRIDAY. A DRY AIR MASS
WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH...WITH SKIES REMAINING
CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE DRY AIR MASS
WILL ALSO BRING ANOTHER NIGHT OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES (AROUND 3
TO 5 DEGREES) TO THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. FORECAST CALLS
FOR A NEAR RECORD LOW OF 67 AT MOBILE AL. THE CURRENT RECORD LOW AT
MOBILE IS 66. FORECAST LOW AT PENSACOLA FL IS 70...3 DEGREES ABOVE
THE CURRENT RECORD LOW OF 67.

HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS WILL RANGE
FROM 87 TO 92 DEGREES. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE WARMER
AND RANGE FROM 68 TO 73 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...WITH MID 70S ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS. /22

LONG TERM [SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]...THE UPPER CUTOFF LOW SHOULD
FORM OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD
OVER THE WEEKEND AND MERGE WITH THE SHORTWAVE PASSING NORTH OF THE
REGION. IT IS AROUND THIS TIME FRAME LATE IN THE WEEK THAT THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA APPROACHING THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF FLORIDA. LOCALLY WE WILL SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AS RETURN FLOW SETS
UP ON THE BACKSIDE A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING ALONG THE EAST
COAST AND NORTHEAST GULF REGION. SO WE WILL SEE A RETURN TO ISOLATED
AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING SATURDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL MANAGE TO REACH NEAR 90 DEGREES EACH DAY
INLAND AREAS...WITH MID/UPPER 80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL
SECTIONS. /22

AVIATION... 26.12Z TAF ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 27.12Z
WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY NORTH AT 4 TO 8 KNOTS THROUGH 12Z THU. 32/EE

MARINE...A MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW THIS
MORNING...MOSTLY ASSOCIATED WITH GOOD COOL AIR DRAINAGE OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY BY MID MORNING AS
INLAND TEMPS BEGIN TO CLIMB DUE TO GOOD SOLAR HEATING AND INCREASED
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL THEN BUILD SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY THU DUE TO MORE COOL AIR DRAINAGE...FOLLOWED BY A WEAK
ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING BY THU AFTERNOON. A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL
THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND SHIFTING EAST AND BUILDING BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      88  63  89  67  90 /  00  00  00  00  05
PENSACOLA   89  67  90  70  88 /  00  00  00  00  05
DESTIN      88  70  90  73  89 /  00  00  00  00  05
EVERGREEN   88  60  90  64  91 /  00  00  00  00  05
WAYNESBORO  87  60  89  62  92 /  00  00  00  00  05
CAMDEN      86  61  90  64  92 /  00  00  00  00  05
CRESTVIEW   91  58  92  63  91 /  00  00  00  00  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 261206 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
706 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.UPDATE...A RECORD LOW OF 63 HAS BEEN MET IN MOBILE THIS MORNING WHICH
BEATS THE OLD RECORD OF 64 SET IN 1891. THE RECORD LOW FOR PENSACOLA
WAS TIED AT 66 WHICH WAS SET IN 1927. 32/EE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 511 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015/

SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...UPPER TROF AXIS JUST TO THE EAST OF
THE CWFA THIS MORNING IS PROGGED TO DRIFT WEST OVER AL AND THE
ADJACENT GULF WATERS OF AL...MS AND LA BY 12Z THU. AT THE SFC A WEAK
INVERTED TROF OF LOW PRESSURE MOSTLY ALONG THE GA/NE FL COAST SHIFTS
WEST TO THE EASTERN FL PANHANDLE THROUGH TONIGHT AND EARLY THU
MORNING. WITH THIS PATTERN CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION WITH PWATS STILL BELOW AND INCH FOR MOST
AREAS.

AS FOR TEMPS WITH PLENTY OF MIXING STILL OCCURRING NEAR THE SFC
ESPECIALLY OVER THE LOWER HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA COMBINED WITH AN
AREA OF HIGH THIN CIRRUS MOSTLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE GENERALLY
FROM MOBILE TO ANDALUSIA BELIEVE SOME AREAS MAY NOT REACH THE
PREDICATED LOWS THAT WERE EARLIER FORECASTED FOR THIS MORNING...MAYBE
1 TO 2 DEGREES WARMER. CURRENTLY WILL USE A BLEND OF THE MAV AND
MET FOR TEMPS THROUGH TONIGHT AND ADJUST SLIGHTLY FOR CONSISTENCY
WITH SURROUNDING WFOS. HIGHS TODAY WILL CLIMB TO THE MID TO UPPER
80S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE UPPER 80S CLOSER TO THE COAST.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE A TAD WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT RANGING
FROM THE LOWER 60S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S
CLOSER TO THE COAST. THE DRY AIR MASS WILL ALSO BRING ANOTHER NIGHT
OF COOL TEMPERATURES (AS MUCH AS 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL) TO THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR A LOW OF 63 AT
MOBILE AL...67 AT PENSACOLA FL...AND 60 DEGREES FROM WAYNESBORO MS
TO EVERGREEN AL. THESE FORECAST NUMBERS WOULD BE NEAR RECORD LOWS.
THE CURRENT RECORD LOW AT MOBILE IS 62...AND THE CURRENT RECORD LOW
AT PENSACOLA IS 66. 32/EE

[THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT]...A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM EASTERN CANADA ALL THE WAY TO THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE THURSDAY MORNING. TWO LARGE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS
WILL BOOKEND THIS UPPER TROUGH...ONE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND
THE OTHER OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHWARD
OVER THE PLAINS STATES. AN UPPER CUTOFF LOW SHOULD FORM OVER THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON FRIDAY AS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
UPPER TROUGH BECOMES DETACHED FROM THE NORTHERN PORTION. THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD OVER THE
NORTHERN ATLANTIC THURSDAY NIGHT AND DEAMPLIFY. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS
ON THURSDAY AND OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST ON FRIDAY. A DRY AIR MASS
WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH...WITH SKIES REMAINING
CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE DRY AIR MASS
WILL ALSO BRING ANOTHER NIGHT OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES (AROUND 3
TO 5 DEGREES) TO THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. FORECAST CALLS
FOR A NEAR RECORD LOW OF 67 AT MOBILE AL. THE CURRENT RECORD LOW AT
MOBILE IS 66. FORECAST LOW AT PENSACOLA FL IS 70...3 DEGREES ABOVE
THE CURRENT RECORD LOW OF 67.

HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS WILL RANGE
FROM 87 TO 92 DEGREES. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE WARMER
AND RANGE FROM 68 TO 73 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...WITH MID 70S ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS. /22

LONG TERM [SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]...THE UPPER CUTOFF LOW SHOULD
FORM OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD
OVER THE WEEKEND AND MERGE WITH THE SHORTWAVE PASSING NORTH OF THE
REGION. IT IS AROUND THIS TIME FRAME LATE IN THE WEEK THAT THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA APPROACHING THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF FLORIDA. LOCALLY WE WILL SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AS RETURN FLOW SETS
UP ON THE BACKSIDE A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING ALONG THE EAST
COAST AND NORTHEAST GULF REGION. SO WE WILL SEE A RETURN TO ISOLATED
AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING SATURDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL MANAGE TO REACH NEAR 90 DEGREES EACH DAY
INLAND AREAS...WITH MID/UPPER 80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL
SECTIONS. /22

AVIATION... 26.12Z TAF ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 27.12Z
WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY NORTH AT 4 TO 8 KNOTS THROUGH 12Z THU. 32/EE

MARINE...A MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW THIS
MORNING...MOSTLY ASSOCIATED WITH GOOD COOL AIR DRAINAGE OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY BY MID MORNING AS
INLAND TEMPS BEGIN TO CLIMB DUE TO GOOD SOLAR HEATING AND INCREASED
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL THEN BUILD SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY THU DUE TO MORE COOL AIR DRAINAGE...FOLLOWED BY A WEAK
ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING BY THU AFTERNOON. A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL
THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND SHIFTING EAST AND BUILDING BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      88  63  89  67  90 /  00  00  00  00  05
PENSACOLA   89  67  90  70  88 /  00  00  00  00  05
DESTIN      88  70  90  73  89 /  00  00  00  00  05
EVERGREEN   88  60  90  64  91 /  00  00  00  00  05
WAYNESBORO  87  60  89  62  92 /  00  00  00  00  05
CAMDEN      86  61  90  64  92 /  00  00  00  00  05
CRESTVIEW   91  58  92  63  91 /  00  00  00  00  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMOB 261011
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
511 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...UPPER TROF AXIS JUST TO THE EAST OF
THE CWFA THIS MORNING IS PROGGED TO DRIFT WEST OVER AL AND THE
ADJACENT GULF WATERS OF AL...MS AND LA BY 12Z THU. AT THE SFC A WEAK
INVERTED TROF OF LOW PRESSURE MOSTLY ALONG THE GA/NE FL COAST SHIFTS
WEST TO THE EASTERN FL PANHANDLE THROUGH TONIGHT AND EARLY THU
MORNING. WITH THIS PATTERN CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION WITH PWATS STILL BELOW AND INCH FOR MOST
AREAS.

AS FOR TEMPS WITH PLENTY OF MIXING STILL OCCURRING NEAR THE SFC
ESPECIALLY OVER THE LOWER HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA COMBINED WITH AN
AREA OF HIGH THIN CIRRUS MOSTLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE GENERALLY
FROM MOBILE TO ANDALUSIA BELIEVE SOME AREAS MAY NOT REACH THE
PREDICATED LOWS THAT WERE EARLIER FORECASTED FOR THIS MORNING...MAYBE
1 TO 2 DEGREES WARMER. CURRENTLY WILL USE A BLEND OF THE MAV AND
MET FOR TEMPS THROUGH TONIGHT AND ADJUST SLIGHTLY FOR CONSISTENCY
WITH SURROUNDING WFOS. HIGHS TODAY WILL CLIMB TO THE MID TO UPPER
80S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE UPPER 80S CLOSER TO THE COAST.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE A TAD WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT RANGING
FROM THE LOWER 60S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S
CLOSER TO THE COAST. THE DRY AIR MASS WILL ALSO BRING ANOTHER NIGHT
OF COOL TEMPERATURES (AS MUCH AS 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL) TO THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR A LOW OF 63 AT
MOBILE AL...67 AT PENSACOLA FL...AND 60 DEGREES FROM WAYNESBORO MS
TO EVERGREEN AL. THESE FORECAST NUMBERS WOULD BE NEAR RECORD LOWS.
THE CURRENT RECORD LOW AT MOBILE IS 62...AND THE CURRENT RECORD LOW
AT PENSACOLA IS 66. 32/EE

[THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT]...A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM EASTERN CANADA ALL THE WAY TO THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE THURSDAY MORNING. TWO LARGE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS
WILL BOOKEND THIS UPPER TROUGH...ONE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND
THE OTHER OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHWARD
OVER THE PLAINS STATES. AN UPPER CUTOFF LOW SHOULD FORM OVER THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON FRIDAY AS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
UPPER TROUGH BECOMES DETACHED FROM THE NORTHERN PORTION. THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD OVER THE
NORTHERN ATLANTIC THURSDAY NIGHT AND DEAMPLIFY. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS
ON THURSDAY AND OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST ON FRIDAY. A DRY AIR MASS
WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH...WITH SKIES REMAINING
CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE DRY AIR MASS
WILL ALSO BRING ANOTHER NIGHT OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES (AROUND 3
TO 5 DEGREES) TO THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. FORECAST CALLS
FOR A NEAR RECORD LOW OF 67 AT MOBILE AL. THE CURRENT RECORD LOW AT
MOBILE IS 66. FORECAST LOW AT PENSACOLA FL IS 70...3 DEGREES ABOVE
THE CURRENT RECORD LOW OF 67.

HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS WILL RANGE
FROM 87 TO 92 DEGREES. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE WARMER
AND RANGE FROM 68 TO 73 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...WITH MID 70S ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS. /22

&&

.LONG TERM [SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]...THE UPPER CUTOFF LOW SHOULD
FORM OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD
OVER THE WEEKEND AND MERGE WITH THE SHORTWAVE PASSING NORTH OF THE
REGION. IT IS AROUND THIS TIME FRAME LATE IN THE WEEK THAT THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA APPROACHING THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF FLORIDA. LOCALLY WE WILL SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AS RETURN FLOW SETS
UP ON THE BACKSIDE A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING ALONG THE EAST
COAST AND NORTHEAST GULF REGION. SO WE WILL SEE A RETURN TO ISOLATED
AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING SATURDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL MANAGE TO REACH NEAR 90 DEGREES EACH DAY
INLAND AREAS...WITH MID/UPPER 80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL
SECTIONS. /22

&&

.AVIATION... 26.12Z TAF ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 27.12Z
WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY NORTH AT 4 TO 8 KNOTS THROUGH 12Z THU. 32/EE

&&

.MARINE...A MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW THIS
MORNING...MOSTLY ASSOCIATED WITH GOOD COOL AIR DRAINAGE OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY BY MID MORNING AS
INLAND TEMPS BEGIN TO CLIMB DUE TO GOOD SOLAR HEATING AND INCREASED
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL THEN BUILD SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY THU DUE TO MORE COOL AIR DRAINAGE...FOLLOWED BY A WEAK
ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING BY THU AFTERNOON. A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL
THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND SHIFTING EAST AND BUILDING BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      88  63  89  67  90 /  00  00  00  00  05
PENSACOLA   89  67  90  70  88 /  00  00  00  00  05
DESTIN      88  70  90  73  89 /  00  00  00  00  05
EVERGREEN   88  60  90  64  91 /  00  00  00  00  05
WAYNESBORO  87  60  89  62  92 /  00  00  00  00  05
CAMDEN      86  61  90  64  92 /  00  00  00  00  05
CRESTVIEW   91  58  92  63  91 /  00  00  00  00  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMOB 261011
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
511 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...UPPER TROF AXIS JUST TO THE EAST OF
THE CWFA THIS MORNING IS PROGGED TO DRIFT WEST OVER AL AND THE
ADJACENT GULF WATERS OF AL...MS AND LA BY 12Z THU. AT THE SFC A WEAK
INVERTED TROF OF LOW PRESSURE MOSTLY ALONG THE GA/NE FL COAST SHIFTS
WEST TO THE EASTERN FL PANHANDLE THROUGH TONIGHT AND EARLY THU
MORNING. WITH THIS PATTERN CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION WITH PWATS STILL BELOW AND INCH FOR MOST
AREAS.

AS FOR TEMPS WITH PLENTY OF MIXING STILL OCCURRING NEAR THE SFC
ESPECIALLY OVER THE LOWER HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA COMBINED WITH AN
AREA OF HIGH THIN CIRRUS MOSTLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE GENERALLY
FROM MOBILE TO ANDALUSIA BELIEVE SOME AREAS MAY NOT REACH THE
PREDICATED LOWS THAT WERE EARLIER FORECASTED FOR THIS MORNING...MAYBE
1 TO 2 DEGREES WARMER. CURRENTLY WILL USE A BLEND OF THE MAV AND
MET FOR TEMPS THROUGH TONIGHT AND ADJUST SLIGHTLY FOR CONSISTENCY
WITH SURROUNDING WFOS. HIGHS TODAY WILL CLIMB TO THE MID TO UPPER
80S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE UPPER 80S CLOSER TO THE COAST.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE A TAD WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT RANGING
FROM THE LOWER 60S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S
CLOSER TO THE COAST. THE DRY AIR MASS WILL ALSO BRING ANOTHER NIGHT
OF COOL TEMPERATURES (AS MUCH AS 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL) TO THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR A LOW OF 63 AT
MOBILE AL...67 AT PENSACOLA FL...AND 60 DEGREES FROM WAYNESBORO MS
TO EVERGREEN AL. THESE FORECAST NUMBERS WOULD BE NEAR RECORD LOWS.
THE CURRENT RECORD LOW AT MOBILE IS 62...AND THE CURRENT RECORD LOW
AT PENSACOLA IS 66. 32/EE

[THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT]...A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM EASTERN CANADA ALL THE WAY TO THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE THURSDAY MORNING. TWO LARGE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS
WILL BOOKEND THIS UPPER TROUGH...ONE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND
THE OTHER OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHWARD
OVER THE PLAINS STATES. AN UPPER CUTOFF LOW SHOULD FORM OVER THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON FRIDAY AS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
UPPER TROUGH BECOMES DETACHED FROM THE NORTHERN PORTION. THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD OVER THE
NORTHERN ATLANTIC THURSDAY NIGHT AND DEAMPLIFY. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS
ON THURSDAY AND OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST ON FRIDAY. A DRY AIR MASS
WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH...WITH SKIES REMAINING
CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE DRY AIR MASS
WILL ALSO BRING ANOTHER NIGHT OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES (AROUND 3
TO 5 DEGREES) TO THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. FORECAST CALLS
FOR A NEAR RECORD LOW OF 67 AT MOBILE AL. THE CURRENT RECORD LOW AT
MOBILE IS 66. FORECAST LOW AT PENSACOLA FL IS 70...3 DEGREES ABOVE
THE CURRENT RECORD LOW OF 67.

HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS WILL RANGE
FROM 87 TO 92 DEGREES. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE WARMER
AND RANGE FROM 68 TO 73 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...WITH MID 70S ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS. /22

&&

.LONG TERM [SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]...THE UPPER CUTOFF LOW SHOULD
FORM OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD
OVER THE WEEKEND AND MERGE WITH THE SHORTWAVE PASSING NORTH OF THE
REGION. IT IS AROUND THIS TIME FRAME LATE IN THE WEEK THAT THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA APPROACHING THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF FLORIDA. LOCALLY WE WILL SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AS RETURN FLOW SETS
UP ON THE BACKSIDE A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING ALONG THE EAST
COAST AND NORTHEAST GULF REGION. SO WE WILL SEE A RETURN TO ISOLATED
AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING SATURDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL MANAGE TO REACH NEAR 90 DEGREES EACH DAY
INLAND AREAS...WITH MID/UPPER 80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL
SECTIONS. /22

&&

.AVIATION... 26.12Z TAF ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 27.12Z
WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY NORTH AT 4 TO 8 KNOTS THROUGH 12Z THU. 32/EE

&&

.MARINE...A MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW THIS
MORNING...MOSTLY ASSOCIATED WITH GOOD COOL AIR DRAINAGE OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY BY MID MORNING AS
INLAND TEMPS BEGIN TO CLIMB DUE TO GOOD SOLAR HEATING AND INCREASED
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL THEN BUILD SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY THU DUE TO MORE COOL AIR DRAINAGE...FOLLOWED BY A WEAK
ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING BY THU AFTERNOON. A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL
THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND SHIFTING EAST AND BUILDING BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      88  63  89  67  90 /  00  00  00  00  05
PENSACOLA   89  67  90  70  88 /  00  00  00  00  05
DESTIN      88  70  90  73  89 /  00  00  00  00  05
EVERGREEN   88  60  90  64  91 /  00  00  00  00  05
WAYNESBORO  87  60  89  62  92 /  00  00  00  00  05
CAMDEN      86  61  90  64  92 /  00  00  00  00  05
CRESTVIEW   91  58  92  63  91 /  00  00  00  00  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMOB 261011
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
511 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...UPPER TROF AXIS JUST TO THE EAST OF
THE CWFA THIS MORNING IS PROGGED TO DRIFT WEST OVER AL AND THE
ADJACENT GULF WATERS OF AL...MS AND LA BY 12Z THU. AT THE SFC A WEAK
INVERTED TROF OF LOW PRESSURE MOSTLY ALONG THE GA/NE FL COAST SHIFTS
WEST TO THE EASTERN FL PANHANDLE THROUGH TONIGHT AND EARLY THU
MORNING. WITH THIS PATTERN CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION WITH PWATS STILL BELOW AND INCH FOR MOST
AREAS.

AS FOR TEMPS WITH PLENTY OF MIXING STILL OCCURRING NEAR THE SFC
ESPECIALLY OVER THE LOWER HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA COMBINED WITH AN
AREA OF HIGH THIN CIRRUS MOSTLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE GENERALLY
FROM MOBILE TO ANDALUSIA BELIEVE SOME AREAS MAY NOT REACH THE
PREDICATED LOWS THAT WERE EARLIER FORECASTED FOR THIS MORNING...MAYBE
1 TO 2 DEGREES WARMER. CURRENTLY WILL USE A BLEND OF THE MAV AND
MET FOR TEMPS THROUGH TONIGHT AND ADJUST SLIGHTLY FOR CONSISTENCY
WITH SURROUNDING WFOS. HIGHS TODAY WILL CLIMB TO THE MID TO UPPER
80S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE UPPER 80S CLOSER TO THE COAST.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE A TAD WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT RANGING
FROM THE LOWER 60S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S
CLOSER TO THE COAST. THE DRY AIR MASS WILL ALSO BRING ANOTHER NIGHT
OF COOL TEMPERATURES (AS MUCH AS 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL) TO THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR A LOW OF 63 AT
MOBILE AL...67 AT PENSACOLA FL...AND 60 DEGREES FROM WAYNESBORO MS
TO EVERGREEN AL. THESE FORECAST NUMBERS WOULD BE NEAR RECORD LOWS.
THE CURRENT RECORD LOW AT MOBILE IS 62...AND THE CURRENT RECORD LOW
AT PENSACOLA IS 66. 32/EE

[THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT]...A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM EASTERN CANADA ALL THE WAY TO THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE THURSDAY MORNING. TWO LARGE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS
WILL BOOKEND THIS UPPER TROUGH...ONE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND
THE OTHER OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHWARD
OVER THE PLAINS STATES. AN UPPER CUTOFF LOW SHOULD FORM OVER THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON FRIDAY AS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
UPPER TROUGH BECOMES DETACHED FROM THE NORTHERN PORTION. THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD OVER THE
NORTHERN ATLANTIC THURSDAY NIGHT AND DEAMPLIFY. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS
ON THURSDAY AND OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST ON FRIDAY. A DRY AIR MASS
WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH...WITH SKIES REMAINING
CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE DRY AIR MASS
WILL ALSO BRING ANOTHER NIGHT OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES (AROUND 3
TO 5 DEGREES) TO THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. FORECAST CALLS
FOR A NEAR RECORD LOW OF 67 AT MOBILE AL. THE CURRENT RECORD LOW AT
MOBILE IS 66. FORECAST LOW AT PENSACOLA FL IS 70...3 DEGREES ABOVE
THE CURRENT RECORD LOW OF 67.

HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS WILL RANGE
FROM 87 TO 92 DEGREES. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE WARMER
AND RANGE FROM 68 TO 73 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...WITH MID 70S ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS. /22

&&

.LONG TERM [SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]...THE UPPER CUTOFF LOW SHOULD
FORM OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD
OVER THE WEEKEND AND MERGE WITH THE SHORTWAVE PASSING NORTH OF THE
REGION. IT IS AROUND THIS TIME FRAME LATE IN THE WEEK THAT THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA APPROACHING THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF FLORIDA. LOCALLY WE WILL SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AS RETURN FLOW SETS
UP ON THE BACKSIDE A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING ALONG THE EAST
COAST AND NORTHEAST GULF REGION. SO WE WILL SEE A RETURN TO ISOLATED
AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING SATURDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL MANAGE TO REACH NEAR 90 DEGREES EACH DAY
INLAND AREAS...WITH MID/UPPER 80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL
SECTIONS. /22

&&

.AVIATION... 26.12Z TAF ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 27.12Z
WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY NORTH AT 4 TO 8 KNOTS THROUGH 12Z THU. 32/EE

&&

.MARINE...A MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW THIS
MORNING...MOSTLY ASSOCIATED WITH GOOD COOL AIR DRAINAGE OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY BY MID MORNING AS
INLAND TEMPS BEGIN TO CLIMB DUE TO GOOD SOLAR HEATING AND INCREASED
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL THEN BUILD SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY THU DUE TO MORE COOL AIR DRAINAGE...FOLLOWED BY A WEAK
ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING BY THU AFTERNOON. A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL
THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND SHIFTING EAST AND BUILDING BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      88  63  89  67  90 /  00  00  00  00  05
PENSACOLA   89  67  90  70  88 /  00  00  00  00  05
DESTIN      88  70  90  73  89 /  00  00  00  00  05
EVERGREEN   88  60  90  64  91 /  00  00  00  00  05
WAYNESBORO  87  60  89  62  92 /  00  00  00  00  05
CAMDEN      86  61  90  64  92 /  00  00  00  00  05
CRESTVIEW   91  58  92  63  91 /  00  00  00  00  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 261011
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
511 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...UPPER TROF AXIS JUST TO THE EAST OF
THE CWFA THIS MORNING IS PROGGED TO DRIFT WEST OVER AL AND THE
ADJACENT GULF WATERS OF AL...MS AND LA BY 12Z THU. AT THE SFC A WEAK
INVERTED TROF OF LOW PRESSURE MOSTLY ALONG THE GA/NE FL COAST SHIFTS
WEST TO THE EASTERN FL PANHANDLE THROUGH TONIGHT AND EARLY THU
MORNING. WITH THIS PATTERN CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION WITH PWATS STILL BELOW AND INCH FOR MOST
AREAS.

AS FOR TEMPS WITH PLENTY OF MIXING STILL OCCURRING NEAR THE SFC
ESPECIALLY OVER THE LOWER HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA COMBINED WITH AN
AREA OF HIGH THIN CIRRUS MOSTLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE GENERALLY
FROM MOBILE TO ANDALUSIA BELIEVE SOME AREAS MAY NOT REACH THE
PREDICATED LOWS THAT WERE EARLIER FORECASTED FOR THIS MORNING...MAYBE
1 TO 2 DEGREES WARMER. CURRENTLY WILL USE A BLEND OF THE MAV AND
MET FOR TEMPS THROUGH TONIGHT AND ADJUST SLIGHTLY FOR CONSISTENCY
WITH SURROUNDING WFOS. HIGHS TODAY WILL CLIMB TO THE MID TO UPPER
80S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE UPPER 80S CLOSER TO THE COAST.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE A TAD WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT RANGING
FROM THE LOWER 60S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S
CLOSER TO THE COAST. THE DRY AIR MASS WILL ALSO BRING ANOTHER NIGHT
OF COOL TEMPERATURES (AS MUCH AS 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL) TO THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR A LOW OF 63 AT
MOBILE AL...67 AT PENSACOLA FL...AND 60 DEGREES FROM WAYNESBORO MS
TO EVERGREEN AL. THESE FORECAST NUMBERS WOULD BE NEAR RECORD LOWS.
THE CURRENT RECORD LOW AT MOBILE IS 62...AND THE CURRENT RECORD LOW
AT PENSACOLA IS 66. 32/EE

[THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT]...A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM EASTERN CANADA ALL THE WAY TO THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE THURSDAY MORNING. TWO LARGE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS
WILL BOOKEND THIS UPPER TROUGH...ONE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND
THE OTHER OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHWARD
OVER THE PLAINS STATES. AN UPPER CUTOFF LOW SHOULD FORM OVER THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON FRIDAY AS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
UPPER TROUGH BECOMES DETACHED FROM THE NORTHERN PORTION. THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD OVER THE
NORTHERN ATLANTIC THURSDAY NIGHT AND DEAMPLIFY. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS
ON THURSDAY AND OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST ON FRIDAY. A DRY AIR MASS
WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH...WITH SKIES REMAINING
CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE DRY AIR MASS
WILL ALSO BRING ANOTHER NIGHT OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES (AROUND 3
TO 5 DEGREES) TO THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. FORECAST CALLS
FOR A NEAR RECORD LOW OF 67 AT MOBILE AL. THE CURRENT RECORD LOW AT
MOBILE IS 66. FORECAST LOW AT PENSACOLA FL IS 70...3 DEGREES ABOVE
THE CURRENT RECORD LOW OF 67.

HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS WILL RANGE
FROM 87 TO 92 DEGREES. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE WARMER
AND RANGE FROM 68 TO 73 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...WITH MID 70S ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS. /22

&&

.LONG TERM [SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]...THE UPPER CUTOFF LOW SHOULD
FORM OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD
OVER THE WEEKEND AND MERGE WITH THE SHORTWAVE PASSING NORTH OF THE
REGION. IT IS AROUND THIS TIME FRAME LATE IN THE WEEK THAT THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA APPROACHING THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF FLORIDA. LOCALLY WE WILL SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AS RETURN FLOW SETS
UP ON THE BACKSIDE A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING ALONG THE EAST
COAST AND NORTHEAST GULF REGION. SO WE WILL SEE A RETURN TO ISOLATED
AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING SATURDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL MANAGE TO REACH NEAR 90 DEGREES EACH DAY
INLAND AREAS...WITH MID/UPPER 80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL
SECTIONS. /22

&&

.AVIATION... 26.12Z TAF ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 27.12Z
WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY NORTH AT 4 TO 8 KNOTS THROUGH 12Z THU. 32/EE

&&

.MARINE...A MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW THIS
MORNING...MOSTLY ASSOCIATED WITH GOOD COOL AIR DRAINAGE OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY BY MID MORNING AS
INLAND TEMPS BEGIN TO CLIMB DUE TO GOOD SOLAR HEATING AND INCREASED
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL THEN BUILD SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY THU DUE TO MORE COOL AIR DRAINAGE...FOLLOWED BY A WEAK
ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING BY THU AFTERNOON. A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL
THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND SHIFTING EAST AND BUILDING BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      88  63  89  67  90 /  00  00  00  00  05
PENSACOLA   89  67  90  70  88 /  00  00  00  00  05
DESTIN      88  70  90  73  89 /  00  00  00  00  05
EVERGREEN   88  60  90  64  91 /  00  00  00  00  05
WAYNESBORO  87  60  89  62  92 /  00  00  00  00  05
CAMDEN      86  61  90  64  92 /  00  00  00  00  05
CRESTVIEW   91  58  92  63  91 /  00  00  00  00  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 252101
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
401 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

...RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...

.SHORT TERM [LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...AN UNSEASONABLY
DRY AIRMASS CONTINUES TO SPREAD SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST REGION THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
HAVE FALLEN TO AN ANOMALOUSLY LOW 0.6 TO 1 INCH RANGE ACROSS THE
REGION. SKIES ARE GENERALLY CLEAR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE MID 50S TO THE
LOWER 60S.

A VERY DRY DEEP LAYER AIRMASS WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ON THE BASE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. POPS WILL BE SUBSEQUENTLY NIL TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S OVER MUCH OF THE INTERIOR TONIGHT...AND WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...WE EXPECT UNSEASONABLY COOL LOW
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CWFA EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. LITTLE CHANGE
TO THE OVERALL FORECAST MINS TONIGHT...WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 60S EXPECTED OVER THE INTERIOR AND THE MID 60S TO
AROUND 70 NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90. /21

RECORD LOWS FOR AUGUST 26TH INCLUDE -

MOBILE REGIONAL AIRPORT - 64 SET IN 1891
PENSACOLA AIRPORT - 66 SET IN 1927

[WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY]...UNSEASONABLY DEEP
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALOFT AND STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IN
FROM THE GREAT LAKE`S AREA WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE AREA WEATHER.
THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY, CREATE CLEAR SKIES AND PRODUCE
OVERNIGHT RECORD TO NEAR RECORD LOWS FOR THE SECOND CONSECUTIVE DAY.

SOME AREA RECORD LOWS FOR THURSDAY...AUGUST 27TH

LOCATIONTEMPERATURE

MOBILE       62

PENSACOLA 66

EVERGREEN 62

BREWTON61

CODEN60

FAIRHOPE62

GREENVILLE59

BEAUMONT 60

DEEP LAYER NORTHERLY FLOW WILL GIVE US MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH
THE DAY THURSDAY AND KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES CAPPED IN THE MID 80S TO
LOW 90S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE TROUGH SPLITS OVER US WITH A CUT OFF LOW FORMING OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF...ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE COOL NLY FLOW AT THE
SURFACE WHICH WILL INCREASE WATER VAPOR CONTENT OF THE ATMOSPHERE
AND GENERATE SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER.  THE AFFECT SHOULD BE TO
KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS A LITTLE WARMER THEN THEY HAVE BEEN OVER THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.  ONSHORE FLOW BEGINS TO SET UP DURING THE DAY
ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND BRINGING A RETURN OF MORE
TYPICAL AUGUST HUMIDITIES. UPPER LEVEL CUT OFF LOW AND A RETURN OF
HIGHER DAYTIME INSTABILITIES WILL CREATE LOW END AFTERNOON POPS. DAYTIME
HIGHS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL TREND TOWARD CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS
THROUGH TUESDAY. PATTERN GETS FAIRLY INTERESTING IN THE MONDAY TO
TUESDAY TIME FRAME...NOT A WHOLE LOT OF CONFIDENCE RIGHT NOW...AS
GFS AND EURO CONTINUE TO PRODUCE DIFFERING SOLUTIONS WITHOUT ANY RUN
TO RUN CONSISTENCY...TRENDED FORECAST TOWARD AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PREVAILING ALOFT. HOWEVER...LATEST EURO WANTS TO BRING REMNANTS OF
ERIKA INTO THE FORECAST AREA...BASED ON CURRENT AND ANTICIPATED SHEAR
IF THIS SYSTEM DOES MOVE WESTWARD WOULD SUSPECT IT TO BE RELATIVELY
WEAK AND STRONGER IF IT TAKES A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK ALONG THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD AS PROJECTED BY OTHER MODELS. /08 JW

&&

.AVIATION...25.18Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION...VFR CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH NORTHERLY WINDS 5-10
KNOTS. /21

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD TOWARD THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF TONIGHT...AND EXPECT A MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG
NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. SPEEDS WILL BE NEAR CAUTIONARY LEVELS OVER THE OPEN WATERS
AND MOBILE BAY AND THE MISSISSIPPI SOUND.  A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW
STILL LOOKS TO DEVELOP FRIDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS A
WEAK SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN
GULF AND NORTH CENTRAL GULF. /21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      61  87  62  89  64 /  00  00  00  00  00
PENSACOLA   65  88  65  90  69 /  00  00  00  00  00
DESTIN      70  89  70  88  74 /  00  00  00  00  00
EVERGREEN   58  87  59  90  62 /  00  00  00  00  00
WAYNESBORO  57  86  60  89  62 /  00  00  00  00  00
CAMDEN      58  86  60  90  62 /  00  00  00  00  00
CRESTVIEW   60  90  58  93  62 /  00  00  00  00  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 252101
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
401 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

...RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...

.SHORT TERM [LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...AN UNSEASONABLY
DRY AIRMASS CONTINUES TO SPREAD SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST REGION THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
HAVE FALLEN TO AN ANOMALOUSLY LOW 0.6 TO 1 INCH RANGE ACROSS THE
REGION. SKIES ARE GENERALLY CLEAR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE MID 50S TO THE
LOWER 60S.

A VERY DRY DEEP LAYER AIRMASS WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ON THE BASE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. POPS WILL BE SUBSEQUENTLY NIL TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S OVER MUCH OF THE INTERIOR TONIGHT...AND WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...WE EXPECT UNSEASONABLY COOL LOW
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CWFA EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. LITTLE CHANGE
TO THE OVERALL FORECAST MINS TONIGHT...WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 60S EXPECTED OVER THE INTERIOR AND THE MID 60S TO
AROUND 70 NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90. /21

RECORD LOWS FOR AUGUST 26TH INCLUDE -

MOBILE REGIONAL AIRPORT - 64 SET IN 1891
PENSACOLA AIRPORT - 66 SET IN 1927

[WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY]...UNSEASONABLY DEEP
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALOFT AND STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IN
FROM THE GREAT LAKE`S AREA WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE AREA WEATHER.
THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY, CREATE CLEAR SKIES AND PRODUCE
OVERNIGHT RECORD TO NEAR RECORD LOWS FOR THE SECOND CONSECUTIVE DAY.

SOME AREA RECORD LOWS FOR THURSDAY...AUGUST 27TH

LOCATIONTEMPERATURE

MOBILE       62

PENSACOLA 66

EVERGREEN 62

BREWTON61

CODEN60

FAIRHOPE62

GREENVILLE59

BEAUMONT 60

DEEP LAYER NORTHERLY FLOW WILL GIVE US MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH
THE DAY THURSDAY AND KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES CAPPED IN THE MID 80S TO
LOW 90S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE TROUGH SPLITS OVER US WITH A CUT OFF LOW FORMING OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF...ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE COOL NLY FLOW AT THE
SURFACE WHICH WILL INCREASE WATER VAPOR CONTENT OF THE ATMOSPHERE
AND GENERATE SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER.  THE AFFECT SHOULD BE TO
KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS A LITTLE WARMER THEN THEY HAVE BEEN OVER THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.  ONSHORE FLOW BEGINS TO SET UP DURING THE DAY
ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND BRINGING A RETURN OF MORE
TYPICAL AUGUST HUMIDITIES. UPPER LEVEL CUT OFF LOW AND A RETURN OF
HIGHER DAYTIME INSTABILITIES WILL CREATE LOW END AFTERNOON POPS. DAYTIME
HIGHS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL TREND TOWARD CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS
THROUGH TUESDAY. PATTERN GETS FAIRLY INTERESTING IN THE MONDAY TO
TUESDAY TIME FRAME...NOT A WHOLE LOT OF CONFIDENCE RIGHT NOW...AS
GFS AND EURO CONTINUE TO PRODUCE DIFFERING SOLUTIONS WITHOUT ANY RUN
TO RUN CONSISTENCY...TRENDED FORECAST TOWARD AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PREVAILING ALOFT. HOWEVER...LATEST EURO WANTS TO BRING REMNANTS OF
ERIKA INTO THE FORECAST AREA...BASED ON CURRENT AND ANTICIPATED SHEAR
IF THIS SYSTEM DOES MOVE WESTWARD WOULD SUSPECT IT TO BE RELATIVELY
WEAK AND STRONGER IF IT TAKES A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK ALONG THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD AS PROJECTED BY OTHER MODELS. /08 JW

&&

.AVIATION...25.18Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION...VFR CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH NORTHERLY WINDS 5-10
KNOTS. /21

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD TOWARD THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF TONIGHT...AND EXPECT A MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG
NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. SPEEDS WILL BE NEAR CAUTIONARY LEVELS OVER THE OPEN WATERS
AND MOBILE BAY AND THE MISSISSIPPI SOUND.  A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW
STILL LOOKS TO DEVELOP FRIDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS A
WEAK SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN
GULF AND NORTH CENTRAL GULF. /21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      61  87  62  89  64 /  00  00  00  00  00
PENSACOLA   65  88  65  90  69 /  00  00  00  00  00
DESTIN      70  89  70  88  74 /  00  00  00  00  00
EVERGREEN   58  87  59  90  62 /  00  00  00  00  00
WAYNESBORO  57  86  60  89  62 /  00  00  00  00  00
CAMDEN      58  86  60  90  62 /  00  00  00  00  00
CRESTVIEW   60  90  58  93  62 /  00  00  00  00  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMOB 251748
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1248 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.AVIATION...
25.18Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH NORTHERLY
WINDS 5-10 KNOTS. /21

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 448 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015/

SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...MAIN UPPER TROF JUST EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING WILL REMAIN MOSTLY STATIONARY THROUGH 12Z
WED. AT THE SURFACE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTH THROUGH WED
MORNING RESULTING IN INCREASED COLD AIR ADVECTION POSSIBLY THROUGH
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WITH THIS PATTERN EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
TODAY WITH UNSEASONABLY DRY CONDITIONS SETTING UP DUE TO INCREASED
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT FROM UPPER RIDGE NOSING IN FROM THE WEST COMBINED
WITH THE DRIER COOLER AIR NEAR THE SFC ADVECTING IN FROM THE NORTH.
LATEST MODEL SOUNDING CONTINUE TO SHOW PWATS DROPPING TO BELOW 1
INCH FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SURFACE DEWPTS MOSTLY IN
THE MIDDLE 50S INLAND AND THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. AS MENTIONED EARLIER THE RECORD LOWS FOR MOBILE AND
PENSACOLA ON THE 26TH OF AUG ARE 64 AND 66 RESPECTIVELY WHICH COULD
BE BROKEN WED MORNING. THE ALL TIME RECORD LOW FOR THE MONTH OF AUG
FOR MOBILE IS 57 WHICH OCCURRED IN 1891...WHICH IS 2 DEGREES COOLER
THAN EARLIER MENTIONED. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S INLAND AND THE LOWER 90S CLOSER TO THE COAST. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL FALL TO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S INLAND AND THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST. 32/EE

[WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT]...THE BASE OF THE EASTERN CONUS
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN GULF REGION WILL PUSH SOUTH ALL THE
WAY TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO...WITH A DRY AIR MASS CONTINUING TO FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH.
SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE DRY
AIR MASS WILL ALSO BRING ANOTHER NIGHT OF COOL TEMPERATURES (AS MUCH
AS 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL) TO THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR A LOW OF 61 AT MOBILE AL...65 AT
PENSACOLA FL...AND 59 DEGREES FROM WAYNESBORO MS TO EVERGREEN AL.
THESE FORECAST NUMBERS WOULD SET RECORD LOWS FOR THE 27TH BY ONE
DEGREE...WITH THE CURRENT RECORD LOW AT MOBILE BEING 62...AND THE
CURRENT RECORD LOW AT PENSACOLA BEING 64.

HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS WILL RANGE
FROM 85 TO 90 DEGREES. LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM 59 TO 64 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...AND FROM 65 TO 70 DEGREES ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS. LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
BE WARMER AND RANGE FROM 63 TO 69 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...AND FROM 70
TO 75 DEGREES ALONG THE COAST./22

LONG TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...AN UPPER CUTOFF LOW SHOULD FORM
OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE UPPER
TROUGH BECOMES DETACHED FROM THE NORTHERN PORTION. THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE TROUGH WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND DEAMPLIFY. AN UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS ON THURSDAY AND OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
ON FRIDAY. THE UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF IS THEN EXPECTED TO
LIFT NORTHWARD OVER THE WEEKEND AND MERGE WITH THE SHORTWAVE.

IT IS AROUND THIS TIME FRAME LATE IN THE WEEK THAT THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER HAS TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA PASSING BY THE TURKS AND
CAICOS ISLANDS. LOCALLY WE WILL SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE AS
RETURN FLOW SETS UP ON THE BACKSIDE A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING
ALONG THE EAST COAST AND NORTHEAST GULF REGION. SO WE WILL LIKELY
SEE AN UPTICK TO ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BEGINNING SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL MANAGE TO REACH
NEAR 90 DEGREES EACH DAY INLAND AREAS...WITH MID/UPPER 80S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS. /22

MARINE...A MODERATE NORTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID
MORNING TODAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. A
MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL REDEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH MID TO LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING AS STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH OVER THE NORTHERLY GULF. A
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATE THURSDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND AS A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DEVELOPS OVER
THE EASTERN GULF AND NORTH CENTRAL GULF. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      89  61  87  61  88 /  05  05  00  00  00
PENSACOLA   92  65  87  65  88 /  05  05  00  00  00
DESTIN      92  70  88  69  88 /  05  05  00  00  00
EVERGREEN   89  59  86  58  88 /  05  05  00  00  00
WAYNESBORO  87  58  88  59  88 /  05  05  00  00  00
CAMDEN      88  59  86  60  88 /  05  05  00  00  00
CRESTVIEW   92  59  88  61  88 /  05  05  00  00  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 251748
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1248 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.AVIATION...
25.18Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH NORTHERLY
WINDS 5-10 KNOTS. /21

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 448 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015/

SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...MAIN UPPER TROF JUST EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING WILL REMAIN MOSTLY STATIONARY THROUGH 12Z
WED. AT THE SURFACE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTH THROUGH WED
MORNING RESULTING IN INCREASED COLD AIR ADVECTION POSSIBLY THROUGH
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WITH THIS PATTERN EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
TODAY WITH UNSEASONABLY DRY CONDITIONS SETTING UP DUE TO INCREASED
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT FROM UPPER RIDGE NOSING IN FROM THE WEST COMBINED
WITH THE DRIER COOLER AIR NEAR THE SFC ADVECTING IN FROM THE NORTH.
LATEST MODEL SOUNDING CONTINUE TO SHOW PWATS DROPPING TO BELOW 1
INCH FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SURFACE DEWPTS MOSTLY IN
THE MIDDLE 50S INLAND AND THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. AS MENTIONED EARLIER THE RECORD LOWS FOR MOBILE AND
PENSACOLA ON THE 26TH OF AUG ARE 64 AND 66 RESPECTIVELY WHICH COULD
BE BROKEN WED MORNING. THE ALL TIME RECORD LOW FOR THE MONTH OF AUG
FOR MOBILE IS 57 WHICH OCCURRED IN 1891...WHICH IS 2 DEGREES COOLER
THAN EARLIER MENTIONED. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S INLAND AND THE LOWER 90S CLOSER TO THE COAST. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL FALL TO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S INLAND AND THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST. 32/EE

[WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT]...THE BASE OF THE EASTERN CONUS
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN GULF REGION WILL PUSH SOUTH ALL THE
WAY TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO...WITH A DRY AIR MASS CONTINUING TO FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH.
SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE DRY
AIR MASS WILL ALSO BRING ANOTHER NIGHT OF COOL TEMPERATURES (AS MUCH
AS 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL) TO THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR A LOW OF 61 AT MOBILE AL...65 AT
PENSACOLA FL...AND 59 DEGREES FROM WAYNESBORO MS TO EVERGREEN AL.
THESE FORECAST NUMBERS WOULD SET RECORD LOWS FOR THE 27TH BY ONE
DEGREE...WITH THE CURRENT RECORD LOW AT MOBILE BEING 62...AND THE
CURRENT RECORD LOW AT PENSACOLA BEING 64.

HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS WILL RANGE
FROM 85 TO 90 DEGREES. LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM 59 TO 64 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...AND FROM 65 TO 70 DEGREES ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS. LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
BE WARMER AND RANGE FROM 63 TO 69 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...AND FROM 70
TO 75 DEGREES ALONG THE COAST./22

LONG TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...AN UPPER CUTOFF LOW SHOULD FORM
OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE UPPER
TROUGH BECOMES DETACHED FROM THE NORTHERN PORTION. THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE TROUGH WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND DEAMPLIFY. AN UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS ON THURSDAY AND OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
ON FRIDAY. THE UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF IS THEN EXPECTED TO
LIFT NORTHWARD OVER THE WEEKEND AND MERGE WITH THE SHORTWAVE.

IT IS AROUND THIS TIME FRAME LATE IN THE WEEK THAT THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER HAS TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA PASSING BY THE TURKS AND
CAICOS ISLANDS. LOCALLY WE WILL SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE AS
RETURN FLOW SETS UP ON THE BACKSIDE A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING
ALONG THE EAST COAST AND NORTHEAST GULF REGION. SO WE WILL LIKELY
SEE AN UPTICK TO ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BEGINNING SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL MANAGE TO REACH
NEAR 90 DEGREES EACH DAY INLAND AREAS...WITH MID/UPPER 80S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS. /22

MARINE...A MODERATE NORTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID
MORNING TODAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. A
MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL REDEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH MID TO LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING AS STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH OVER THE NORTHERLY GULF. A
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATE THURSDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND AS A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DEVELOPS OVER
THE EASTERN GULF AND NORTH CENTRAL GULF. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      89  61  87  61  88 /  05  05  00  00  00
PENSACOLA   92  65  87  65  88 /  05  05  00  00  00
DESTIN      92  70  88  69  88 /  05  05  00  00  00
EVERGREEN   89  59  86  58  88 /  05  05  00  00  00
WAYNESBORO  87  58  88  59  88 /  05  05  00  00  00
CAMDEN      88  59  86  60  88 /  05  05  00  00  00
CRESTVIEW   92  59  88  61  88 /  05  05  00  00  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMOB 251748
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1248 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.AVIATION...
25.18Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH NORTHERLY
WINDS 5-10 KNOTS. /21

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 448 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015/

SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...MAIN UPPER TROF JUST EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING WILL REMAIN MOSTLY STATIONARY THROUGH 12Z
WED. AT THE SURFACE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTH THROUGH WED
MORNING RESULTING IN INCREASED COLD AIR ADVECTION POSSIBLY THROUGH
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WITH THIS PATTERN EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
TODAY WITH UNSEASONABLY DRY CONDITIONS SETTING UP DUE TO INCREASED
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT FROM UPPER RIDGE NOSING IN FROM THE WEST COMBINED
WITH THE DRIER COOLER AIR NEAR THE SFC ADVECTING IN FROM THE NORTH.
LATEST MODEL SOUNDING CONTINUE TO SHOW PWATS DROPPING TO BELOW 1
INCH FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SURFACE DEWPTS MOSTLY IN
THE MIDDLE 50S INLAND AND THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. AS MENTIONED EARLIER THE RECORD LOWS FOR MOBILE AND
PENSACOLA ON THE 26TH OF AUG ARE 64 AND 66 RESPECTIVELY WHICH COULD
BE BROKEN WED MORNING. THE ALL TIME RECORD LOW FOR THE MONTH OF AUG
FOR MOBILE IS 57 WHICH OCCURRED IN 1891...WHICH IS 2 DEGREES COOLER
THAN EARLIER MENTIONED. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S INLAND AND THE LOWER 90S CLOSER TO THE COAST. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL FALL TO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S INLAND AND THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST. 32/EE

[WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT]...THE BASE OF THE EASTERN CONUS
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN GULF REGION WILL PUSH SOUTH ALL THE
WAY TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO...WITH A DRY AIR MASS CONTINUING TO FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH.
SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE DRY
AIR MASS WILL ALSO BRING ANOTHER NIGHT OF COOL TEMPERATURES (AS MUCH
AS 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL) TO THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR A LOW OF 61 AT MOBILE AL...65 AT
PENSACOLA FL...AND 59 DEGREES FROM WAYNESBORO MS TO EVERGREEN AL.
THESE FORECAST NUMBERS WOULD SET RECORD LOWS FOR THE 27TH BY ONE
DEGREE...WITH THE CURRENT RECORD LOW AT MOBILE BEING 62...AND THE
CURRENT RECORD LOW AT PENSACOLA BEING 64.

HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS WILL RANGE
FROM 85 TO 90 DEGREES. LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM 59 TO 64 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...AND FROM 65 TO 70 DEGREES ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS. LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
BE WARMER AND RANGE FROM 63 TO 69 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...AND FROM 70
TO 75 DEGREES ALONG THE COAST./22

LONG TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...AN UPPER CUTOFF LOW SHOULD FORM
OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE UPPER
TROUGH BECOMES DETACHED FROM THE NORTHERN PORTION. THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE TROUGH WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND DEAMPLIFY. AN UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS ON THURSDAY AND OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
ON FRIDAY. THE UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF IS THEN EXPECTED TO
LIFT NORTHWARD OVER THE WEEKEND AND MERGE WITH THE SHORTWAVE.

IT IS AROUND THIS TIME FRAME LATE IN THE WEEK THAT THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER HAS TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA PASSING BY THE TURKS AND
CAICOS ISLANDS. LOCALLY WE WILL SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE AS
RETURN FLOW SETS UP ON THE BACKSIDE A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING
ALONG THE EAST COAST AND NORTHEAST GULF REGION. SO WE WILL LIKELY
SEE AN UPTICK TO ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BEGINNING SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL MANAGE TO REACH
NEAR 90 DEGREES EACH DAY INLAND AREAS...WITH MID/UPPER 80S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS. /22

MARINE...A MODERATE NORTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID
MORNING TODAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. A
MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL REDEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH MID TO LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING AS STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH OVER THE NORTHERLY GULF. A
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATE THURSDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND AS A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DEVELOPS OVER
THE EASTERN GULF AND NORTH CENTRAL GULF. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      89  61  87  61  88 /  05  05  00  00  00
PENSACOLA   92  65  87  65  88 /  05  05  00  00  00
DESTIN      92  70  88  69  88 /  05  05  00  00  00
EVERGREEN   89  59  86  58  88 /  05  05  00  00  00
WAYNESBORO  87  58  88  59  88 /  05  05  00  00  00
CAMDEN      88  59  86  60  88 /  05  05  00  00  00
CRESTVIEW   92  59  88  61  88 /  05  05  00  00  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 251748
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1248 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.AVIATION...
25.18Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH NORTHERLY
WINDS 5-10 KNOTS. /21

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 448 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015/

SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...MAIN UPPER TROF JUST EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING WILL REMAIN MOSTLY STATIONARY THROUGH 12Z
WED. AT THE SURFACE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTH THROUGH WED
MORNING RESULTING IN INCREASED COLD AIR ADVECTION POSSIBLY THROUGH
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WITH THIS PATTERN EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
TODAY WITH UNSEASONABLY DRY CONDITIONS SETTING UP DUE TO INCREASED
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT FROM UPPER RIDGE NOSING IN FROM THE WEST COMBINED
WITH THE DRIER COOLER AIR NEAR THE SFC ADVECTING IN FROM THE NORTH.
LATEST MODEL SOUNDING CONTINUE TO SHOW PWATS DROPPING TO BELOW 1
INCH FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SURFACE DEWPTS MOSTLY IN
THE MIDDLE 50S INLAND AND THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. AS MENTIONED EARLIER THE RECORD LOWS FOR MOBILE AND
PENSACOLA ON THE 26TH OF AUG ARE 64 AND 66 RESPECTIVELY WHICH COULD
BE BROKEN WED MORNING. THE ALL TIME RECORD LOW FOR THE MONTH OF AUG
FOR MOBILE IS 57 WHICH OCCURRED IN 1891...WHICH IS 2 DEGREES COOLER
THAN EARLIER MENTIONED. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S INLAND AND THE LOWER 90S CLOSER TO THE COAST. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL FALL TO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S INLAND AND THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST. 32/EE

[WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT]...THE BASE OF THE EASTERN CONUS
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN GULF REGION WILL PUSH SOUTH ALL THE
WAY TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO...WITH A DRY AIR MASS CONTINUING TO FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH.
SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE DRY
AIR MASS WILL ALSO BRING ANOTHER NIGHT OF COOL TEMPERATURES (AS MUCH
AS 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL) TO THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR A LOW OF 61 AT MOBILE AL...65 AT
PENSACOLA FL...AND 59 DEGREES FROM WAYNESBORO MS TO EVERGREEN AL.
THESE FORECAST NUMBERS WOULD SET RECORD LOWS FOR THE 27TH BY ONE
DEGREE...WITH THE CURRENT RECORD LOW AT MOBILE BEING 62...AND THE
CURRENT RECORD LOW AT PENSACOLA BEING 64.

HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS WILL RANGE
FROM 85 TO 90 DEGREES. LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM 59 TO 64 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...AND FROM 65 TO 70 DEGREES ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS. LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
BE WARMER AND RANGE FROM 63 TO 69 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...AND FROM 70
TO 75 DEGREES ALONG THE COAST./22

LONG TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...AN UPPER CUTOFF LOW SHOULD FORM
OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE UPPER
TROUGH BECOMES DETACHED FROM THE NORTHERN PORTION. THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE TROUGH WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND DEAMPLIFY. AN UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS ON THURSDAY AND OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
ON FRIDAY. THE UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF IS THEN EXPECTED TO
LIFT NORTHWARD OVER THE WEEKEND AND MERGE WITH THE SHORTWAVE.

IT IS AROUND THIS TIME FRAME LATE IN THE WEEK THAT THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER HAS TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA PASSING BY THE TURKS AND
CAICOS ISLANDS. LOCALLY WE WILL SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE AS
RETURN FLOW SETS UP ON THE BACKSIDE A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING
ALONG THE EAST COAST AND NORTHEAST GULF REGION. SO WE WILL LIKELY
SEE AN UPTICK TO ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BEGINNING SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL MANAGE TO REACH
NEAR 90 DEGREES EACH DAY INLAND AREAS...WITH MID/UPPER 80S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS. /22

MARINE...A MODERATE NORTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID
MORNING TODAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. A
MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL REDEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH MID TO LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING AS STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH OVER THE NORTHERLY GULF. A
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATE THURSDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND AS A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DEVELOPS OVER
THE EASTERN GULF AND NORTH CENTRAL GULF. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      89  61  87  61  88 /  05  05  00  00  00
PENSACOLA   92  65  87  65  88 /  05  05  00  00  00
DESTIN      92  70  88  69  88 /  05  05  00  00  00
EVERGREEN   89  59  86  58  88 /  05  05  00  00  00
WAYNESBORO  87  58  88  59  88 /  05  05  00  00  00
CAMDEN      88  59  86  60  88 /  05  05  00  00  00
CRESTVIEW   92  59  88  61  88 /  05  05  00  00  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMOB 250948
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
448 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...MAIN UPPER TROF JUST EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING WILL REMAIN MOSTLY STATIONARY THROUGH 12Z
WED. AT THE SURFACE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTH THROUGH WED
MORNING RESULTING IN INCREASED COLD AIR ADVECTION POSSIBLY THROUGH
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WITH THIS PATTERN EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
TODAY WITH UNSEASONABLY DRY CONDITIONS SETTING UP DUE TO INCREASED
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT FROM UPPER RIDGE NOSING IN FROM THE WEST COMBINED
WITH THE DRIER COOLER AIR NEAR THE SFC ADVECTING IN FROM THE NORTH.
LATEST MODEL SOUNDING CONTINUE TO SHOW PWATS DROPPING TO BELOW 1
INCH FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SURFACE DEWPTS MOSTLY IN
THE MIDDLE 50S INLAND AND THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. AS MENTIONED EARLIER THE RECORD LOWS FOR MOBILE AND
PENSACOLA ON THE 25TH OF AUG ARE 62 AND 64 RESPECTIVELY WHICH COULD
BE BROKEN WED MORNING. THE ALL TIME RECORD LOW FOR THE MONTH OF AUG
FOR MOBILE IS 57 WHICH OCCURRED IN 1891...WHICH IS 2 DEGREES COOLER
THAN EARLIER MENTIONED. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S INLAND AND THE LOWER 90S CLOSER TO THE COAST. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL FALL TO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S INLAND AND THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST. 32/EE

[WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT]...THE BASE OF THE EASTERN CONUS
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN GULF REGION WILL PUSH SOUTH ALL THE
WAY TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO...WITH A DRY AIR MASS CONTINUING TO FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH.
SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE DRY
AIR MASS WILL ALSO BRING ANOTHER NIGHT OF COOL TEMPERATURES (AS MUCH
AS 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL) TO THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR A LOW OF 61 AT MOBILE AL...65 AT
PENSACOLA FL...AND 59 DEGREES FROM WAYNESBORO MS TO EVERGREEN AL.
THESE FORECAST NUMBERS WOULD SET RECORD LOWS FOR THE 27TH BY ONE
DEGREE...WITH THE CURRENT RECORD LOW AT MOBILE BEING 62...AND THE
CURRENT RECORD LOW AT PENSACOLA BEING 64.

HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS WILL RANGE
FROM 85 TO 90 DEGREES. LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM 59 TO 64 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...AND FROM 65 TO 70 DEGREES ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS. LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
BE WARMER AND RANGE FROM 63 TO 69 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...AND FROM 70
TO 75 DEGREES ALONG THE COAST./22

&&

.LONG TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...AN UPPER CUTOFF LOW SHOULD FORM
OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE UPPER
TROUGH BECOMES DETACHED FROM THE NORTHERN PORTION. THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE TROUGH WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND DEAMPLIFY. AN UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS ON THURSDAY AND OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
ON FRIDAY. THE UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF IS THEN EXPECTED TO
LIFT NORTHWARD OVER THE WEEKEND AND MERGE WITH THE SHORTWAVE.

IT IS AROUND THIS TIME FRAME LATE IN THE WEEK THAT THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER HAS TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA PASSING BY THE TURKS AND
CAICOS ISLANDS. LOCALLY WE WILL SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE AS
RETURN FLOW SETS UP ON THE BACKSIDE A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING
ALONG THE EAST COAST AND NORTHEAST GULF REGION. SO WE WILL LIKELY
SEE AN UPTICK TO ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BEGINNING SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL MANAGE TO REACH
NEAR 90 DEGREES EACH DAY INLAND AREAS...WITH MID/UPPER 80S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS. /22

&&

.AVIATION... 25.12Z TAF ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 26.12Z
COULD SEE SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG THIS MORNING AND WED MORNING MOSTLY
NEAR SUNRISE. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY NORTH AT 4 TO 8 KNOTS THROUGH 12Z
WED. 32/EE

&&

.MARINE...A MODERATE NORTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID
MORNING TODAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. A
MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL REDEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH MID TO LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING AS STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH OVER THE NORTHERLY GULF. A
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATE THURSDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND AS A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DEVELOPS
OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND NORTH CENTRAL GULF. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      89  61  87  61  88 /  05  05  00  00  00
PENSACOLA   92  65  87  65  88 /  05  05  00  00  00
DESTIN      92  70  88  69  88 /  05  05  00  00  00
EVERGREEN   89  59  86  58  88 /  05  05  00  00  00
WAYNESBORO  87  58  88  59  88 /  05  05  00  00  00
CAMDEN      88  59  86  60  88 /  05  05  00  00  00
CRESTVIEW   92  59  88  61  88 /  05  05  00  00  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMOB 250948 CCA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
448 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...MAIN UPPER TROF JUST EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING WILL REMAIN MOSTLY STATIONARY THROUGH 12Z
WED. AT THE SURFACE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTH THROUGH WED
MORNING RESULTING IN INCREASED COLD AIR ADVECTION POSSIBLY THROUGH
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WITH THIS PATTERN EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
TODAY WITH UNSEASONABLY DRY CONDITIONS SETTING UP DUE TO INCREASED
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT FROM UPPER RIDGE NOSING IN FROM THE WEST COMBINED
WITH THE DRIER COOLER AIR NEAR THE SFC ADVECTING IN FROM THE NORTH.
LATEST MODEL SOUNDING CONTINUE TO SHOW PWATS DROPPING TO BELOW 1
INCH FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SURFACE DEWPTS MOSTLY IN
THE MIDDLE 50S INLAND AND THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. AS MENTIONED EARLIER THE RECORD LOWS FOR MOBILE AND
PENSACOLA ON THE 26TH OF AUG ARE 64 AND 66 RESPECTIVELY WHICH COULD
BE BROKEN WED MORNING. THE ALL TIME RECORD LOW FOR THE MONTH OF AUG
FOR MOBILE IS 57 WHICH OCCURRED IN 1891...WHICH IS 2 DEGREES COOLER
THAN EARLIER MENTIONED. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S INLAND AND THE LOWER 90S CLOSER TO THE COAST. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL FALL TO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S INLAND AND THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST. 32/EE

[WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT]...THE BASE OF THE EASTERN CONUS
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN GULF REGION WILL PUSH SOUTH ALL THE
WAY TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO...WITH A DRY AIR MASS CONTINUING TO FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH.
SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE DRY
AIR MASS WILL ALSO BRING ANOTHER NIGHT OF COOL TEMPERATURES (AS MUCH
AS 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL) TO THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR A LOW OF 61 AT MOBILE AL...65 AT
PENSACOLA FL...AND 59 DEGREES FROM WAYNESBORO MS TO EVERGREEN AL.
THESE FORECAST NUMBERS WOULD SET RECORD LOWS FOR THE 27TH BY ONE
DEGREE...WITH THE CURRENT RECORD LOW AT MOBILE BEING 62...AND THE
CURRENT RECORD LOW AT PENSACOLA BEING 64.

HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS WILL RANGE
FROM 85 TO 90 DEGREES. LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM 59 TO 64 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...AND FROM 65 TO 70 DEGREES ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS. LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
BE WARMER AND RANGE FROM 63 TO 69 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...AND FROM 70
TO 75 DEGREES ALONG THE COAST./22

&&

.LONG TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...AN UPPER CUTOFF LOW SHOULD FORM
OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE UPPER
TROUGH BECOMES DETACHED FROM THE NORTHERN PORTION. THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE TROUGH WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND DEAMPLIFY. AN UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS ON THURSDAY AND OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
ON FRIDAY. THE UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF IS THEN EXPECTED TO
LIFT NORTHWARD OVER THE WEEKEND AND MERGE WITH THE SHORTWAVE.

IT IS AROUND THIS TIME FRAME LATE IN THE WEEK THAT THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER HAS TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA PASSING BY THE TURKS AND
CAICOS ISLANDS. LOCALLY WE WILL SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE AS
RETURN FLOW SETS UP ON THE BACKSIDE A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING
ALONG THE EAST COAST AND NORTHEAST GULF REGION. SO WE WILL LIKELY
SEE AN UPTICK TO ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BEGINNING SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL MANAGE TO REACH
NEAR 90 DEGREES EACH DAY INLAND AREAS...WITH MID/UPPER 80S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS. /22

&&

.AVIATION... 25.12Z TAF ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 26.12Z
COULD SEE SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG THIS MORNING AND WED MORNING MOSTLY
NEAR SUNRISE. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY NORTH AT 4 TO 8 KNOTS THROUGH 12Z
WED. 32/EE

&&

.MARINE...A MODERATE NORTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID
MORNING TODAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. A
MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL REDEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH MID TO LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING AS STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH OVER THE NORTHERLY GULF. A
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATE THURSDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND AS A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DEVELOPS
OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND NORTH CENTRAL GULF. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      89  61  87  61  88 /  05  05  00  00  00
PENSACOLA   92  65  87  65  88 /  05  05  00  00  00
DESTIN      92  70  88  69  88 /  05  05  00  00  00
EVERGREEN   89  59  86  58  88 /  05  05  00  00  00
WAYNESBORO  87  58  88  59  88 /  05  05  00  00  00
CAMDEN      88  59  86  60  88 /  05  05  00  00  00
CRESTVIEW   92  59  88  61  88 /  05  05  00  00  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 250948
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
448 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...MAIN UPPER TROF JUST EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING WILL REMAIN MOSTLY STATIONARY THROUGH 12Z
WED. AT THE SURFACE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTH THROUGH WED
MORNING RESULTING IN INCREASED COLD AIR ADVECTION POSSIBLY THROUGH
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WITH THIS PATTERN EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
TODAY WITH UNSEASONABLY DRY CONDITIONS SETTING UP DUE TO INCREASED
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT FROM UPPER RIDGE NOSING IN FROM THE WEST COMBINED
WITH THE DRIER COOLER AIR NEAR THE SFC ADVECTING IN FROM THE NORTH.
LATEST MODEL SOUNDING CONTINUE TO SHOW PWATS DROPPING TO BELOW 1
INCH FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SURFACE DEWPTS MOSTLY IN
THE MIDDLE 50S INLAND AND THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. AS MENTIONED EARLIER THE RECORD LOWS FOR MOBILE AND
PENSACOLA ON THE 25TH OF AUG ARE 62 AND 64 RESPECTIVELY WHICH COULD
BE BROKEN WED MORNING. THE ALL TIME RECORD LOW FOR THE MONTH OF AUG
FOR MOBILE IS 57 WHICH OCCURRED IN 1891...WHICH IS 2 DEGREES COOLER
THAN EARLIER MENTIONED. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S INLAND AND THE LOWER 90S CLOSER TO THE COAST. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL FALL TO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S INLAND AND THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST. 32/EE

[WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT]...THE BASE OF THE EASTERN CONUS
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN GULF REGION WILL PUSH SOUTH ALL THE
WAY TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO...WITH A DRY AIR MASS CONTINUING TO FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH.
SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE DRY
AIR MASS WILL ALSO BRING ANOTHER NIGHT OF COOL TEMPERATURES (AS MUCH
AS 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL) TO THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR A LOW OF 61 AT MOBILE AL...65 AT
PENSACOLA FL...AND 59 DEGREES FROM WAYNESBORO MS TO EVERGREEN AL.
THESE FORECAST NUMBERS WOULD SET RECORD LOWS FOR THE 27TH BY ONE
DEGREE...WITH THE CURRENT RECORD LOW AT MOBILE BEING 62...AND THE
CURRENT RECORD LOW AT PENSACOLA BEING 64.

HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS WILL RANGE
FROM 85 TO 90 DEGREES. LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM 59 TO 64 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...AND FROM 65 TO 70 DEGREES ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS. LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
BE WARMER AND RANGE FROM 63 TO 69 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...AND FROM 70
TO 75 DEGREES ALONG THE COAST./22

&&

.LONG TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...AN UPPER CUTOFF LOW SHOULD FORM
OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE UPPER
TROUGH BECOMES DETACHED FROM THE NORTHERN PORTION. THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE TROUGH WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND DEAMPLIFY. AN UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS ON THURSDAY AND OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
ON FRIDAY. THE UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF IS THEN EXPECTED TO
LIFT NORTHWARD OVER THE WEEKEND AND MERGE WITH THE SHORTWAVE.

IT IS AROUND THIS TIME FRAME LATE IN THE WEEK THAT THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER HAS TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA PASSING BY THE TURKS AND
CAICOS ISLANDS. LOCALLY WE WILL SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE AS
RETURN FLOW SETS UP ON THE BACKSIDE A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING
ALONG THE EAST COAST AND NORTHEAST GULF REGION. SO WE WILL LIKELY
SEE AN UPTICK TO ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BEGINNING SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL MANAGE TO REACH
NEAR 90 DEGREES EACH DAY INLAND AREAS...WITH MID/UPPER 80S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS. /22

&&

.AVIATION... 25.12Z TAF ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 26.12Z
COULD SEE SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG THIS MORNING AND WED MORNING MOSTLY
NEAR SUNRISE. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY NORTH AT 4 TO 8 KNOTS THROUGH 12Z
WED. 32/EE

&&

.MARINE...A MODERATE NORTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID
MORNING TODAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. A
MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL REDEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH MID TO LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING AS STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH OVER THE NORTHERLY GULF. A
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATE THURSDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND AS A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DEVELOPS
OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND NORTH CENTRAL GULF. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      89  61  87  61  88 /  05  05  00  00  00
PENSACOLA   92  65  87  65  88 /  05  05  00  00  00
DESTIN      92  70  88  69  88 /  05  05  00  00  00
EVERGREEN   89  59  86  58  88 /  05  05  00  00  00
WAYNESBORO  87  58  88  59  88 /  05  05  00  00  00
CAMDEN      88  59  86  60  88 /  05  05  00  00  00
CRESTVIEW   92  59  88  61  88 /  05  05  00  00  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 250948 CCA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
448 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...MAIN UPPER TROF JUST EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING WILL REMAIN MOSTLY STATIONARY THROUGH 12Z
WED. AT THE SURFACE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTH THROUGH WED
MORNING RESULTING IN INCREASED COLD AIR ADVECTION POSSIBLY THROUGH
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WITH THIS PATTERN EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
TODAY WITH UNSEASONABLY DRY CONDITIONS SETTING UP DUE TO INCREASED
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT FROM UPPER RIDGE NOSING IN FROM THE WEST COMBINED
WITH THE DRIER COOLER AIR NEAR THE SFC ADVECTING IN FROM THE NORTH.
LATEST MODEL SOUNDING CONTINUE TO SHOW PWATS DROPPING TO BELOW 1
INCH FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SURFACE DEWPTS MOSTLY IN
THE MIDDLE 50S INLAND AND THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. AS MENTIONED EARLIER THE RECORD LOWS FOR MOBILE AND
PENSACOLA ON THE 26TH OF AUG ARE 64 AND 66 RESPECTIVELY WHICH COULD
BE BROKEN WED MORNING. THE ALL TIME RECORD LOW FOR THE MONTH OF AUG
FOR MOBILE IS 57 WHICH OCCURRED IN 1891...WHICH IS 2 DEGREES COOLER
THAN EARLIER MENTIONED. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S INLAND AND THE LOWER 90S CLOSER TO THE COAST. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL FALL TO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S INLAND AND THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST. 32/EE

[WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT]...THE BASE OF THE EASTERN CONUS
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN GULF REGION WILL PUSH SOUTH ALL THE
WAY TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO...WITH A DRY AIR MASS CONTINUING TO FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH.
SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE DRY
AIR MASS WILL ALSO BRING ANOTHER NIGHT OF COOL TEMPERATURES (AS MUCH
AS 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL) TO THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR A LOW OF 61 AT MOBILE AL...65 AT
PENSACOLA FL...AND 59 DEGREES FROM WAYNESBORO MS TO EVERGREEN AL.
THESE FORECAST NUMBERS WOULD SET RECORD LOWS FOR THE 27TH BY ONE
DEGREE...WITH THE CURRENT RECORD LOW AT MOBILE BEING 62...AND THE
CURRENT RECORD LOW AT PENSACOLA BEING 64.

HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS WILL RANGE
FROM 85 TO 90 DEGREES. LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM 59 TO 64 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...AND FROM 65 TO 70 DEGREES ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS. LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
BE WARMER AND RANGE FROM 63 TO 69 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...AND FROM 70
TO 75 DEGREES ALONG THE COAST./22

&&

.LONG TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...AN UPPER CUTOFF LOW SHOULD FORM
OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE UPPER
TROUGH BECOMES DETACHED FROM THE NORTHERN PORTION. THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE TROUGH WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND DEAMPLIFY. AN UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS ON THURSDAY AND OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
ON FRIDAY. THE UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF IS THEN EXPECTED TO
LIFT NORTHWARD OVER THE WEEKEND AND MERGE WITH THE SHORTWAVE.

IT IS AROUND THIS TIME FRAME LATE IN THE WEEK THAT THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER HAS TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA PASSING BY THE TURKS AND
CAICOS ISLANDS. LOCALLY WE WILL SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE AS
RETURN FLOW SETS UP ON THE BACKSIDE A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING
ALONG THE EAST COAST AND NORTHEAST GULF REGION. SO WE WILL LIKELY
SEE AN UPTICK TO ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BEGINNING SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL MANAGE TO REACH
NEAR 90 DEGREES EACH DAY INLAND AREAS...WITH MID/UPPER 80S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS. /22

&&

.AVIATION... 25.12Z TAF ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 26.12Z
COULD SEE SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG THIS MORNING AND WED MORNING MOSTLY
NEAR SUNRISE. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY NORTH AT 4 TO 8 KNOTS THROUGH 12Z
WED. 32/EE

&&

.MARINE...A MODERATE NORTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID
MORNING TODAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. A
MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL REDEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH MID TO LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING AS STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH OVER THE NORTHERLY GULF. A
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATE THURSDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND AS A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DEVELOPS
OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND NORTH CENTRAL GULF. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      89  61  87  61  88 /  05  05  00  00  00
PENSACOLA   92  65  87  65  88 /  05  05  00  00  00
DESTIN      92  70  88  69  88 /  05  05  00  00  00
EVERGREEN   89  59  86  58  88 /  05  05  00  00  00
WAYNESBORO  87  58  88  59  88 /  05  05  00  00  00
CAMDEN      88  59  86  60  88 /  05  05  00  00  00
CRESTVIEW   92  59  88  61  88 /  05  05  00  00  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMOB 250948 CCA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
448 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...MAIN UPPER TROF JUST EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING WILL REMAIN MOSTLY STATIONARY THROUGH 12Z
WED. AT THE SURFACE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTH THROUGH WED
MORNING RESULTING IN INCREASED COLD AIR ADVECTION POSSIBLY THROUGH
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WITH THIS PATTERN EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
TODAY WITH UNSEASONABLY DRY CONDITIONS SETTING UP DUE TO INCREASED
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT FROM UPPER RIDGE NOSING IN FROM THE WEST COMBINED
WITH THE DRIER COOLER AIR NEAR THE SFC ADVECTING IN FROM THE NORTH.
LATEST MODEL SOUNDING CONTINUE TO SHOW PWATS DROPPING TO BELOW 1
INCH FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SURFACE DEWPTS MOSTLY IN
THE MIDDLE 50S INLAND AND THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. AS MENTIONED EARLIER THE RECORD LOWS FOR MOBILE AND
PENSACOLA ON THE 26TH OF AUG ARE 64 AND 66 RESPECTIVELY WHICH COULD
BE BROKEN WED MORNING. THE ALL TIME RECORD LOW FOR THE MONTH OF AUG
FOR MOBILE IS 57 WHICH OCCURRED IN 1891...WHICH IS 2 DEGREES COOLER
THAN EARLIER MENTIONED. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S INLAND AND THE LOWER 90S CLOSER TO THE COAST. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL FALL TO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S INLAND AND THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST. 32/EE

[WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT]...THE BASE OF THE EASTERN CONUS
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN GULF REGION WILL PUSH SOUTH ALL THE
WAY TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO...WITH A DRY AIR MASS CONTINUING TO FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH.
SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE DRY
AIR MASS WILL ALSO BRING ANOTHER NIGHT OF COOL TEMPERATURES (AS MUCH
AS 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL) TO THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR A LOW OF 61 AT MOBILE AL...65 AT
PENSACOLA FL...AND 59 DEGREES FROM WAYNESBORO MS TO EVERGREEN AL.
THESE FORECAST NUMBERS WOULD SET RECORD LOWS FOR THE 27TH BY ONE
DEGREE...WITH THE CURRENT RECORD LOW AT MOBILE BEING 62...AND THE
CURRENT RECORD LOW AT PENSACOLA BEING 64.

HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS WILL RANGE
FROM 85 TO 90 DEGREES. LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM 59 TO 64 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...AND FROM 65 TO 70 DEGREES ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS. LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
BE WARMER AND RANGE FROM 63 TO 69 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...AND FROM 70
TO 75 DEGREES ALONG THE COAST./22

&&

.LONG TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...AN UPPER CUTOFF LOW SHOULD FORM
OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE UPPER
TROUGH BECOMES DETACHED FROM THE NORTHERN PORTION. THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE TROUGH WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND DEAMPLIFY. AN UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS ON THURSDAY AND OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
ON FRIDAY. THE UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF IS THEN EXPECTED TO
LIFT NORTHWARD OVER THE WEEKEND AND MERGE WITH THE SHORTWAVE.

IT IS AROUND THIS TIME FRAME LATE IN THE WEEK THAT THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER HAS TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA PASSING BY THE TURKS AND
CAICOS ISLANDS. LOCALLY WE WILL SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE AS
RETURN FLOW SETS UP ON THE BACKSIDE A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING
ALONG THE EAST COAST AND NORTHEAST GULF REGION. SO WE WILL LIKELY
SEE AN UPTICK TO ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BEGINNING SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL MANAGE TO REACH
NEAR 90 DEGREES EACH DAY INLAND AREAS...WITH MID/UPPER 80S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS. /22

&&

.AVIATION... 25.12Z TAF ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 26.12Z
COULD SEE SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG THIS MORNING AND WED MORNING MOSTLY
NEAR SUNRISE. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY NORTH AT 4 TO 8 KNOTS THROUGH 12Z
WED. 32/EE

&&

.MARINE...A MODERATE NORTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID
MORNING TODAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. A
MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL REDEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH MID TO LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING AS STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH OVER THE NORTHERLY GULF. A
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATE THURSDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND AS A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DEVELOPS
OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND NORTH CENTRAL GULF. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      89  61  87  61  88 /  05  05  00  00  00
PENSACOLA   92  65  87  65  88 /  05  05  00  00  00
DESTIN      92  70  88  69  88 /  05  05  00  00  00
EVERGREEN   89  59  86  58  88 /  05  05  00  00  00
WAYNESBORO  87  58  88  59  88 /  05  05  00  00  00
CAMDEN      88  59  86  60  88 /  05  05  00  00  00
CRESTVIEW   92  59  88  61  88 /  05  05  00  00  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 250948
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
448 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...MAIN UPPER TROF JUST EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING WILL REMAIN MOSTLY STATIONARY THROUGH 12Z
WED. AT THE SURFACE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTH THROUGH WED
MORNING RESULTING IN INCREASED COLD AIR ADVECTION POSSIBLY THROUGH
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WITH THIS PATTERN EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
TODAY WITH UNSEASONABLY DRY CONDITIONS SETTING UP DUE TO INCREASED
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT FROM UPPER RIDGE NOSING IN FROM THE WEST COMBINED
WITH THE DRIER COOLER AIR NEAR THE SFC ADVECTING IN FROM THE NORTH.
LATEST MODEL SOUNDING CONTINUE TO SHOW PWATS DROPPING TO BELOW 1
INCH FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SURFACE DEWPTS MOSTLY IN
THE MIDDLE 50S INLAND AND THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. AS MENTIONED EARLIER THE RECORD LOWS FOR MOBILE AND
PENSACOLA ON THE 25TH OF AUG ARE 62 AND 64 RESPECTIVELY WHICH COULD
BE BROKEN WED MORNING. THE ALL TIME RECORD LOW FOR THE MONTH OF AUG
FOR MOBILE IS 57 WHICH OCCURRED IN 1891...WHICH IS 2 DEGREES COOLER
THAN EARLIER MENTIONED. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S INLAND AND THE LOWER 90S CLOSER TO THE COAST. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL FALL TO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S INLAND AND THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST. 32/EE

[WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT]...THE BASE OF THE EASTERN CONUS
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN GULF REGION WILL PUSH SOUTH ALL THE
WAY TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO...WITH A DRY AIR MASS CONTINUING TO FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH.
SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE DRY
AIR MASS WILL ALSO BRING ANOTHER NIGHT OF COOL TEMPERATURES (AS MUCH
AS 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL) TO THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR A LOW OF 61 AT MOBILE AL...65 AT
PENSACOLA FL...AND 59 DEGREES FROM WAYNESBORO MS TO EVERGREEN AL.
THESE FORECAST NUMBERS WOULD SET RECORD LOWS FOR THE 27TH BY ONE
DEGREE...WITH THE CURRENT RECORD LOW AT MOBILE BEING 62...AND THE
CURRENT RECORD LOW AT PENSACOLA BEING 64.

HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS WILL RANGE
FROM 85 TO 90 DEGREES. LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM 59 TO 64 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...AND FROM 65 TO 70 DEGREES ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS. LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
BE WARMER AND RANGE FROM 63 TO 69 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...AND FROM 70
TO 75 DEGREES ALONG THE COAST./22

&&

.LONG TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...AN UPPER CUTOFF LOW SHOULD FORM
OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE UPPER
TROUGH BECOMES DETACHED FROM THE NORTHERN PORTION. THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE TROUGH WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND DEAMPLIFY. AN UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS ON THURSDAY AND OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
ON FRIDAY. THE UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF IS THEN EXPECTED TO
LIFT NORTHWARD OVER THE WEEKEND AND MERGE WITH THE SHORTWAVE.

IT IS AROUND THIS TIME FRAME LATE IN THE WEEK THAT THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER HAS TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA PASSING BY THE TURKS AND
CAICOS ISLANDS. LOCALLY WE WILL SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE AS
RETURN FLOW SETS UP ON THE BACKSIDE A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING
ALONG THE EAST COAST AND NORTHEAST GULF REGION. SO WE WILL LIKELY
SEE AN UPTICK TO ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BEGINNING SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL MANAGE TO REACH
NEAR 90 DEGREES EACH DAY INLAND AREAS...WITH MID/UPPER 80S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS. /22

&&

.AVIATION... 25.12Z TAF ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 26.12Z
COULD SEE SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG THIS MORNING AND WED MORNING MOSTLY
NEAR SUNRISE. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY NORTH AT 4 TO 8 KNOTS THROUGH 12Z
WED. 32/EE

&&

.MARINE...A MODERATE NORTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID
MORNING TODAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. A
MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL REDEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH MID TO LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING AS STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH OVER THE NORTHERLY GULF. A
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATE THURSDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND AS A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DEVELOPS
OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND NORTH CENTRAL GULF. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      89  61  87  61  88 /  05  05  00  00  00
PENSACOLA   92  65  87  65  88 /  05  05  00  00  00
DESTIN      92  70  88  69  88 /  05  05  00  00  00
EVERGREEN   89  59  86  58  88 /  05  05  00  00  00
WAYNESBORO  87  58  88  59  88 /  05  05  00  00  00
CAMDEN      88  59  86  60  88 /  05  05  00  00  00
CRESTVIEW   92  59  88  61  88 /  05  05  00  00  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 250948
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
448 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...MAIN UPPER TROF JUST EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING WILL REMAIN MOSTLY STATIONARY THROUGH 12Z
WED. AT THE SURFACE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTH THROUGH WED
MORNING RESULTING IN INCREASED COLD AIR ADVECTION POSSIBLY THROUGH
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WITH THIS PATTERN EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
TODAY WITH UNSEASONABLY DRY CONDITIONS SETTING UP DUE TO INCREASED
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT FROM UPPER RIDGE NOSING IN FROM THE WEST COMBINED
WITH THE DRIER COOLER AIR NEAR THE SFC ADVECTING IN FROM THE NORTH.
LATEST MODEL SOUNDING CONTINUE TO SHOW PWATS DROPPING TO BELOW 1
INCH FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SURFACE DEWPTS MOSTLY IN
THE MIDDLE 50S INLAND AND THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. AS MENTIONED EARLIER THE RECORD LOWS FOR MOBILE AND
PENSACOLA ON THE 25TH OF AUG ARE 62 AND 64 RESPECTIVELY WHICH COULD
BE BROKEN WED MORNING. THE ALL TIME RECORD LOW FOR THE MONTH OF AUG
FOR MOBILE IS 57 WHICH OCCURRED IN 1891...WHICH IS 2 DEGREES COOLER
THAN EARLIER MENTIONED. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S INLAND AND THE LOWER 90S CLOSER TO THE COAST. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL FALL TO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S INLAND AND THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST. 32/EE

[WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT]...THE BASE OF THE EASTERN CONUS
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN GULF REGION WILL PUSH SOUTH ALL THE
WAY TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO...WITH A DRY AIR MASS CONTINUING TO FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH.
SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE DRY
AIR MASS WILL ALSO BRING ANOTHER NIGHT OF COOL TEMPERATURES (AS MUCH
AS 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL) TO THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR A LOW OF 61 AT MOBILE AL...65 AT
PENSACOLA FL...AND 59 DEGREES FROM WAYNESBORO MS TO EVERGREEN AL.
THESE FORECAST NUMBERS WOULD SET RECORD LOWS FOR THE 27TH BY ONE
DEGREE...WITH THE CURRENT RECORD LOW AT MOBILE BEING 62...AND THE
CURRENT RECORD LOW AT PENSACOLA BEING 64.

HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS WILL RANGE
FROM 85 TO 90 DEGREES. LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM 59 TO 64 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...AND FROM 65 TO 70 DEGREES ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS. LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
BE WARMER AND RANGE FROM 63 TO 69 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...AND FROM 70
TO 75 DEGREES ALONG THE COAST./22

&&

.LONG TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...AN UPPER CUTOFF LOW SHOULD FORM
OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE UPPER
TROUGH BECOMES DETACHED FROM THE NORTHERN PORTION. THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE TROUGH WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND DEAMPLIFY. AN UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS ON THURSDAY AND OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
ON FRIDAY. THE UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF IS THEN EXPECTED TO
LIFT NORTHWARD OVER THE WEEKEND AND MERGE WITH THE SHORTWAVE.

IT IS AROUND THIS TIME FRAME LATE IN THE WEEK THAT THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER HAS TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA PASSING BY THE TURKS AND
CAICOS ISLANDS. LOCALLY WE WILL SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE AS
RETURN FLOW SETS UP ON THE BACKSIDE A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING
ALONG THE EAST COAST AND NORTHEAST GULF REGION. SO WE WILL LIKELY
SEE AN UPTICK TO ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BEGINNING SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL MANAGE TO REACH
NEAR 90 DEGREES EACH DAY INLAND AREAS...WITH MID/UPPER 80S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS. /22

&&

.AVIATION... 25.12Z TAF ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 26.12Z
COULD SEE SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG THIS MORNING AND WED MORNING MOSTLY
NEAR SUNRISE. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY NORTH AT 4 TO 8 KNOTS THROUGH 12Z
WED. 32/EE

&&

.MARINE...A MODERATE NORTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID
MORNING TODAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. A
MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL REDEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH MID TO LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING AS STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH OVER THE NORTHERLY GULF. A
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATE THURSDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND AS A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DEVELOPS
OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND NORTH CENTRAL GULF. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      89  61  87  61  88 /  05  05  00  00  00
PENSACOLA   92  65  87  65  88 /  05  05  00  00  00
DESTIN      92  70  88  69  88 /  05  05  00  00  00
EVERGREEN   89  59  86  58  88 /  05  05  00  00  00
WAYNESBORO  87  58  88  59  88 /  05  05  00  00  00
CAMDEN      88  59  86  60  88 /  05  05  00  00  00
CRESTVIEW   92  59  88  61  88 /  05  05  00  00  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





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