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000
FXUS64 KMOB 100019 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
619 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...SEE UPDATED INFORMATION BELOW.

&&

.UPDATE...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED AND AN UPDATED
FORECAST WAS SENT TO REMOVE WIND ADVISORY HEADLINES. /21

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z ISSUANCE...VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
CLEAR SKIES. NORTHWEST WINDS 5-10 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE INCREASING TO 10-15 KNOTS WITH A FEW
GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. /21

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...DEEP UPPER TROF OVER MUCH OF
THE EASTERN CONUS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST AND LIFT NORTHWARD
THROUGH WED AFTERNOON. AT THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER EAST TX AND THE
WESTERN GULF WILL SHIFT EAST TO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY AND NORTH
CENTRAL GULF THROUGH WED AFTERNOON. WITH THIS PATTERN NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
THROUGH WED AFTERNOON. SURFACE TEMPS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO REBOUND
SLOWLY ON WED REACHING THE LOWER 50S FOR MOST AREAS BY WED
AFTERNOON. FOR TONIGHT MAIN CONCERN WILL BE A LIGHT TO MODERATE
FREEZE FOR ALL AREAS WITH LOWS REACHING THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S FOR
MOST AREAS NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR BY AROUND 3 AM CST WED MORNING
CONTINUING THROUGH ABOUT 8 OR 9 AM. SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO BE CLEAR
OVERNIGHT WITH SUNNY SKIES ON WED.

AS FOR TEMPS WILL LEAN TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE LOWER MOS NUMBERS DUE
TO THE DEEP LAYER OF COLD AIR ADVECTING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST REGION THROUGH EARLY WED AFTERNOON. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS MOSTLY
NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND THE MID TO UPPER 20S FURTHER SOUTH
TOWARDS THE COAST...AND THE LOWER 30S NEAR IMMEDIATE COAST. 32/EE

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...A DRY AND MILD
WEATHER PATTERN AND GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURES WILL BE THE UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE
TROUGH ANCHORED OVER THE REGION AND A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR
NORTH ALLOWING A LIGHT ONSHORE SURFACE WINDFLOW TO DEVELOP AND HELP
TEMPERATURES TO GRADUALLY WARM. COLDEST NIGHT LOOKS TO BE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS WINDS ARE LIGHT AND SKIES ARE CLEAR AND STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING SHOULD KEEP MOST INTERIOR TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW THE
FREEZING MARK WHILE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES
REMAIN ABOVE. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 60S AND NEAR 70
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...A WEAK, DRY COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA BY SATURDAY MORNING. A
NORTHERLY WIND FLOW AND A COOLING TREND WILL FOLLOW IN ITS WAKE. AS A
RESULT...TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID 50S NORTH TO
LOW 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST. FAIR SKIES WILL HELP OVERNIGHT LOWS TO
FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S ALONG THE COAST. SUNDAYS
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 50S DURING THE DAY BUT
SUNDAY NIGHT LOWS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING AS WINDFLOW TURNS MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY AS ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
FRONTAL PASSAGE IS CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED MONDAY...WITH THE
PROBABILITY OF RAIN SHOWERS INCREASING FROM A SLIGHT CHANCE SUNDAY
NIGHT TO A CHANCE ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT SOUTHEAST OF I-65. /08

MARINE...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER EAST TEXAS AND THE WESTERN GULF
WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD REACHING THE EASTERN GULF AND FL
PENINSULA LATE IN THE WEEK. A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN GULF WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING THEN SLOWLY
DIMINISH THROUGH WED AFTERNOON. A MODERATE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL DEVELOP EARLY THU AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE
TO AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EASTWARD OVER CENTRAL PARTS OF
MS...AL AND GA THU THROUGH FRI. A LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW
WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW LATE FRI THEN BUILD OVER THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A DEEPER SURGE OF COLDER AIR
MOVES DOWN OVER MUCH OF THE DEEP SOUTH AND NORTHERN GULF. AS A RESULT
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE REQUIRED LATE SAT INTO SUN. 32/EE

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ650-655-670-
     675.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ630>635.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MOB





000
FXUS64 KMOB 100019 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
619 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...SEE UPDATED INFORMATION BELOW.

&&

.UPDATE...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED AND AN UPDATED
FORECAST WAS SENT TO REMOVE WIND ADVISORY HEADLINES. /21

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z ISSUANCE...VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
CLEAR SKIES. NORTHWEST WINDS 5-10 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE INCREASING TO 10-15 KNOTS WITH A FEW
GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. /21

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...DEEP UPPER TROF OVER MUCH OF
THE EASTERN CONUS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST AND LIFT NORTHWARD
THROUGH WED AFTERNOON. AT THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER EAST TX AND THE
WESTERN GULF WILL SHIFT EAST TO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY AND NORTH
CENTRAL GULF THROUGH WED AFTERNOON. WITH THIS PATTERN NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
THROUGH WED AFTERNOON. SURFACE TEMPS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO REBOUND
SLOWLY ON WED REACHING THE LOWER 50S FOR MOST AREAS BY WED
AFTERNOON. FOR TONIGHT MAIN CONCERN WILL BE A LIGHT TO MODERATE
FREEZE FOR ALL AREAS WITH LOWS REACHING THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S FOR
MOST AREAS NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR BY AROUND 3 AM CST WED MORNING
CONTINUING THROUGH ABOUT 8 OR 9 AM. SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO BE CLEAR
OVERNIGHT WITH SUNNY SKIES ON WED.

AS FOR TEMPS WILL LEAN TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE LOWER MOS NUMBERS DUE
TO THE DEEP LAYER OF COLD AIR ADVECTING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST REGION THROUGH EARLY WED AFTERNOON. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS MOSTLY
NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND THE MID TO UPPER 20S FURTHER SOUTH
TOWARDS THE COAST...AND THE LOWER 30S NEAR IMMEDIATE COAST. 32/EE

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...A DRY AND MILD
WEATHER PATTERN AND GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURES WILL BE THE UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE
TROUGH ANCHORED OVER THE REGION AND A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR
NORTH ALLOWING A LIGHT ONSHORE SURFACE WINDFLOW TO DEVELOP AND HELP
TEMPERATURES TO GRADUALLY WARM. COLDEST NIGHT LOOKS TO BE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS WINDS ARE LIGHT AND SKIES ARE CLEAR AND STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING SHOULD KEEP MOST INTERIOR TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW THE
FREEZING MARK WHILE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES
REMAIN ABOVE. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 60S AND NEAR 70
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...A WEAK, DRY COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA BY SATURDAY MORNING. A
NORTHERLY WIND FLOW AND A COOLING TREND WILL FOLLOW IN ITS WAKE. AS A
RESULT...TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID 50S NORTH TO
LOW 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST. FAIR SKIES WILL HELP OVERNIGHT LOWS TO
FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S ALONG THE COAST. SUNDAYS
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 50S DURING THE DAY BUT
SUNDAY NIGHT LOWS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING AS WINDFLOW TURNS MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY AS ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
FRONTAL PASSAGE IS CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED MONDAY...WITH THE
PROBABILITY OF RAIN SHOWERS INCREASING FROM A SLIGHT CHANCE SUNDAY
NIGHT TO A CHANCE ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT SOUTHEAST OF I-65. /08

MARINE...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER EAST TEXAS AND THE WESTERN GULF
WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD REACHING THE EASTERN GULF AND FL
PENINSULA LATE IN THE WEEK. A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN GULF WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING THEN SLOWLY
DIMINISH THROUGH WED AFTERNOON. A MODERATE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL DEVELOP EARLY THU AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE
TO AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EASTWARD OVER CENTRAL PARTS OF
MS...AL AND GA THU THROUGH FRI. A LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW
WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW LATE FRI THEN BUILD OVER THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A DEEPER SURGE OF COLDER AIR
MOVES DOWN OVER MUCH OF THE DEEP SOUTH AND NORTHERN GULF. AS A RESULT
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE REQUIRED LATE SAT INTO SUN. 32/EE

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ650-655-670-
     675.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ630>635.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MOB





000
FXUS64 KMOB 100019 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
619 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...SEE UPDATED INFORMATION BELOW.

&&

.UPDATE...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED AND AN UPDATED
FORECAST WAS SENT TO REMOVE WIND ADVISORY HEADLINES. /21

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z ISSUANCE...VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
CLEAR SKIES. NORTHWEST WINDS 5-10 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE INCREASING TO 10-15 KNOTS WITH A FEW
GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. /21

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...DEEP UPPER TROF OVER MUCH OF
THE EASTERN CONUS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST AND LIFT NORTHWARD
THROUGH WED AFTERNOON. AT THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER EAST TX AND THE
WESTERN GULF WILL SHIFT EAST TO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY AND NORTH
CENTRAL GULF THROUGH WED AFTERNOON. WITH THIS PATTERN NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
THROUGH WED AFTERNOON. SURFACE TEMPS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO REBOUND
SLOWLY ON WED REACHING THE LOWER 50S FOR MOST AREAS BY WED
AFTERNOON. FOR TONIGHT MAIN CONCERN WILL BE A LIGHT TO MODERATE
FREEZE FOR ALL AREAS WITH LOWS REACHING THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S FOR
MOST AREAS NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR BY AROUND 3 AM CST WED MORNING
CONTINUING THROUGH ABOUT 8 OR 9 AM. SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO BE CLEAR
OVERNIGHT WITH SUNNY SKIES ON WED.

AS FOR TEMPS WILL LEAN TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE LOWER MOS NUMBERS DUE
TO THE DEEP LAYER OF COLD AIR ADVECTING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST REGION THROUGH EARLY WED AFTERNOON. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS MOSTLY
NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND THE MID TO UPPER 20S FURTHER SOUTH
TOWARDS THE COAST...AND THE LOWER 30S NEAR IMMEDIATE COAST. 32/EE

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...A DRY AND MILD
WEATHER PATTERN AND GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURES WILL BE THE UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE
TROUGH ANCHORED OVER THE REGION AND A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR
NORTH ALLOWING A LIGHT ONSHORE SURFACE WINDFLOW TO DEVELOP AND HELP
TEMPERATURES TO GRADUALLY WARM. COLDEST NIGHT LOOKS TO BE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS WINDS ARE LIGHT AND SKIES ARE CLEAR AND STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING SHOULD KEEP MOST INTERIOR TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW THE
FREEZING MARK WHILE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES
REMAIN ABOVE. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 60S AND NEAR 70
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...A WEAK, DRY COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA BY SATURDAY MORNING. A
NORTHERLY WIND FLOW AND A COOLING TREND WILL FOLLOW IN ITS WAKE. AS A
RESULT...TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID 50S NORTH TO
LOW 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST. FAIR SKIES WILL HELP OVERNIGHT LOWS TO
FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S ALONG THE COAST. SUNDAYS
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 50S DURING THE DAY BUT
SUNDAY NIGHT LOWS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING AS WINDFLOW TURNS MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY AS ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
FRONTAL PASSAGE IS CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED MONDAY...WITH THE
PROBABILITY OF RAIN SHOWERS INCREASING FROM A SLIGHT CHANCE SUNDAY
NIGHT TO A CHANCE ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT SOUTHEAST OF I-65. /08

MARINE...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER EAST TEXAS AND THE WESTERN GULF
WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD REACHING THE EASTERN GULF AND FL
PENINSULA LATE IN THE WEEK. A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN GULF WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING THEN SLOWLY
DIMINISH THROUGH WED AFTERNOON. A MODERATE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL DEVELOP EARLY THU AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE
TO AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EASTWARD OVER CENTRAL PARTS OF
MS...AL AND GA THU THROUGH FRI. A LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW
WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW LATE FRI THEN BUILD OVER THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A DEEPER SURGE OF COLDER AIR
MOVES DOWN OVER MUCH OF THE DEEP SOUTH AND NORTHERN GULF. AS A RESULT
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE REQUIRED LATE SAT INTO SUN. 32/EE

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ650-655-670-
     675.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ630>635.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MOB




000
FXUS64 KMOB 092151
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
351 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...DEEP UPPER TROF OVER MUCH OF
THE EASTERN CONUS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST AND LIFT NORTHWARD
THROUGH WED AFTERNOON. AT THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER EAST TX AND THE
WESTERN GULF WILL SHIFT EAST TO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY AND NORTH
CENTRAL GULF THROUGH WED AFTERNOON. WITH THIS PATTERN NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
THROUGH WED AFTERNOON. SURFACE TEMPS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO REBOUND
SLOWLY ON WED REACHING THE LOWER 50S FOR MOST AREAS BY WED
AFTERNOON. FOR TONIGHT MAIN CONCERN WILL BE A LIGHT TO MODERATE
FREEZE FOR ALL AREAS WITH LOWS REACHING THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S FOR
MOST AREAS NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR BY AROUND 3 AM CST WED MORNING
CONTINUING THROUGH ABOUT 8 OR 9 AM. SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO BE CLEAR
OVERNIGHT WITH SUNNY SKIES ON WED.

AS FOR TEMPS WILL LEAN TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE LOWER MOS NUMBERS DUE
TO THE DEEP LAYER OF COLD AIR ADVECTING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST REGION THROUGH EARLY WED AFTERNOON. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS MOSTLY
NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND THE MID TO UPPER 20S FURTHER SOUTH
TOWARDS THE COAST...AND THE LOWER 30S NEAR IMMEDIATE COAST. 32/EE


.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...A DRY AND MILD
WEATHER PATTERN AND GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURES WILL BE THE UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE
TROUGH ANCHORED OVER THE REGION AND A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR
NORTH ALLOWING A LIGHT ONSHORE SURFACE WINDFLOW TO DEVELOP AND HELP
TEMPERATURES TO GRADUALLY WARM. COLDEST NIGHT LOOKS TO BE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS WINDS ARE LIGHT AND SKIES ARE CLEAR AND STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING SHOULD KEEP MOST INTERIOR TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW THE
FREEZING MARK WHILE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES
REMAIN ABOVE. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 60S AND NEAR 70
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...A WEAK, DRY COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA BY SATURDAY MORNING. A
NORTHERLY WIND FLOW AND A COOLING TREND WILL FOLLOW IN ITS WAKE. AS A
RESULT...TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID 50S NORTH TO
LOW 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST. FAIR SKIES WILL HELP OVERNIGHT LOWS TO
FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S ALONG THE COAST. SUNDAYS
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 50S DURING THE DAY BUT
SUNDAY NIGHT LOWS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING AS WINDFLOW TURNS MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY AS ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
FRONTAL PASSAGE IS CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED MONDAY...WITH THE
PROBABILITY OF RAIN SHOWERS INCREASING FROM A SLIGHT CHANCE SUNDAY
NIGHT TO A CHANCE ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT SOUTHEAST OF I-65. /08

&&

.MARINE...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER EAST TEXAS AND THE WESTERN GULF
WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD REACHING THE EASTERN GULF AND FL
PENINSULA LATE IN THE WEEK. A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN GULF WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING THEN SLOWLY
DIMINISH THROUGH WED AFTERNOON. A MODERATE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL DEVELOP EARLY THU AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE
TO AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EASTWARD OVER CENTRAL PARTS OF
MS...AL AND GA THU THROUGH FRI. A LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW
WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW LATE FRI THEN BUILD OVER THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A DEEPER SURGE OF COLDER AIR
MOVES DOWN OVER MUCH OF THE DEEP SOUTH AND NORTHERN GULF. AS A RESULT
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE REQUIRED LATE SAT INTO SUN. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      29  53  38  68 /   0   0   0   0
PENSACOLA   30  53  39  66 /   0   0   0   0
DESTIN      33  52  40  64 /   0   0   0   0
EVERGREEN   25  51  30  68 /   0   0   0   0
WAYNESBORO  23  52  28  71 /   0   0   0   0
CAMDEN      24  50  28  66 /   0   0   0   0
CRESTVIEW   26  53  29  68 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ALZ051>060-
     261>266.

FL...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR FLZ201>206.

MS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MSZ067-075-076-
     078-079.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ650-655-670-
     675.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ630>635.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MOB




000
FXUS64 KMOB 092151
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
351 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...DEEP UPPER TROF OVER MUCH OF
THE EASTERN CONUS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST AND LIFT NORTHWARD
THROUGH WED AFTERNOON. AT THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER EAST TX AND THE
WESTERN GULF WILL SHIFT EAST TO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY AND NORTH
CENTRAL GULF THROUGH WED AFTERNOON. WITH THIS PATTERN NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
THROUGH WED AFTERNOON. SURFACE TEMPS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO REBOUND
SLOWLY ON WED REACHING THE LOWER 50S FOR MOST AREAS BY WED
AFTERNOON. FOR TONIGHT MAIN CONCERN WILL BE A LIGHT TO MODERATE
FREEZE FOR ALL AREAS WITH LOWS REACHING THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S FOR
MOST AREAS NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR BY AROUND 3 AM CST WED MORNING
CONTINUING THROUGH ABOUT 8 OR 9 AM. SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO BE CLEAR
OVERNIGHT WITH SUNNY SKIES ON WED.

AS FOR TEMPS WILL LEAN TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE LOWER MOS NUMBERS DUE
TO THE DEEP LAYER OF COLD AIR ADVECTING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST REGION THROUGH EARLY WED AFTERNOON. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS MOSTLY
NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND THE MID TO UPPER 20S FURTHER SOUTH
TOWARDS THE COAST...AND THE LOWER 30S NEAR IMMEDIATE COAST. 32/EE


.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...A DRY AND MILD
WEATHER PATTERN AND GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURES WILL BE THE UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE
TROUGH ANCHORED OVER THE REGION AND A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR
NORTH ALLOWING A LIGHT ONSHORE SURFACE WINDFLOW TO DEVELOP AND HELP
TEMPERATURES TO GRADUALLY WARM. COLDEST NIGHT LOOKS TO BE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS WINDS ARE LIGHT AND SKIES ARE CLEAR AND STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING SHOULD KEEP MOST INTERIOR TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW THE
FREEZING MARK WHILE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES
REMAIN ABOVE. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 60S AND NEAR 70
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...A WEAK, DRY COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA BY SATURDAY MORNING. A
NORTHERLY WIND FLOW AND A COOLING TREND WILL FOLLOW IN ITS WAKE. AS A
RESULT...TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID 50S NORTH TO
LOW 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST. FAIR SKIES WILL HELP OVERNIGHT LOWS TO
FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S ALONG THE COAST. SUNDAYS
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 50S DURING THE DAY BUT
SUNDAY NIGHT LOWS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING AS WINDFLOW TURNS MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY AS ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
FRONTAL PASSAGE IS CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED MONDAY...WITH THE
PROBABILITY OF RAIN SHOWERS INCREASING FROM A SLIGHT CHANCE SUNDAY
NIGHT TO A CHANCE ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT SOUTHEAST OF I-65. /08

&&

.MARINE...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER EAST TEXAS AND THE WESTERN GULF
WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD REACHING THE EASTERN GULF AND FL
PENINSULA LATE IN THE WEEK. A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN GULF WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING THEN SLOWLY
DIMINISH THROUGH WED AFTERNOON. A MODERATE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL DEVELOP EARLY THU AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE
TO AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EASTWARD OVER CENTRAL PARTS OF
MS...AL AND GA THU THROUGH FRI. A LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW
WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW LATE FRI THEN BUILD OVER THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A DEEPER SURGE OF COLDER AIR
MOVES DOWN OVER MUCH OF THE DEEP SOUTH AND NORTHERN GULF. AS A RESULT
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE REQUIRED LATE SAT INTO SUN. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      29  53  38  68 /   0   0   0   0
PENSACOLA   30  53  39  66 /   0   0   0   0
DESTIN      33  52  40  64 /   0   0   0   0
EVERGREEN   25  51  30  68 /   0   0   0   0
WAYNESBORO  23  52  28  71 /   0   0   0   0
CAMDEN      24  50  28  66 /   0   0   0   0
CRESTVIEW   26  53  29  68 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ALZ051>060-
     261>266.

FL...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR FLZ201>206.

MS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MSZ067-075-076-
     078-079.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ650-655-670-
     675.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ630>635.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MOB





000
FXUS64 KMOB 092151
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
351 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...DEEP UPPER TROF OVER MUCH OF
THE EASTERN CONUS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST AND LIFT NORTHWARD
THROUGH WED AFTERNOON. AT THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER EAST TX AND THE
WESTERN GULF WILL SHIFT EAST TO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY AND NORTH
CENTRAL GULF THROUGH WED AFTERNOON. WITH THIS PATTERN NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
THROUGH WED AFTERNOON. SURFACE TEMPS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO REBOUND
SLOWLY ON WED REACHING THE LOWER 50S FOR MOST AREAS BY WED
AFTERNOON. FOR TONIGHT MAIN CONCERN WILL BE A LIGHT TO MODERATE
FREEZE FOR ALL AREAS WITH LOWS REACHING THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S FOR
MOST AREAS NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR BY AROUND 3 AM CST WED MORNING
CONTINUING THROUGH ABOUT 8 OR 9 AM. SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO BE CLEAR
OVERNIGHT WITH SUNNY SKIES ON WED.

AS FOR TEMPS WILL LEAN TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE LOWER MOS NUMBERS DUE
TO THE DEEP LAYER OF COLD AIR ADVECTING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST REGION THROUGH EARLY WED AFTERNOON. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS MOSTLY
NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND THE MID TO UPPER 20S FURTHER SOUTH
TOWARDS THE COAST...AND THE LOWER 30S NEAR IMMEDIATE COAST. 32/EE


.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...A DRY AND MILD
WEATHER PATTERN AND GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURES WILL BE THE UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE
TROUGH ANCHORED OVER THE REGION AND A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR
NORTH ALLOWING A LIGHT ONSHORE SURFACE WINDFLOW TO DEVELOP AND HELP
TEMPERATURES TO GRADUALLY WARM. COLDEST NIGHT LOOKS TO BE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS WINDS ARE LIGHT AND SKIES ARE CLEAR AND STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING SHOULD KEEP MOST INTERIOR TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW THE
FREEZING MARK WHILE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES
REMAIN ABOVE. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 60S AND NEAR 70
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...A WEAK, DRY COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA BY SATURDAY MORNING. A
NORTHERLY WIND FLOW AND A COOLING TREND WILL FOLLOW IN ITS WAKE. AS A
RESULT...TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID 50S NORTH TO
LOW 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST. FAIR SKIES WILL HELP OVERNIGHT LOWS TO
FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S ALONG THE COAST. SUNDAYS
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 50S DURING THE DAY BUT
SUNDAY NIGHT LOWS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING AS WINDFLOW TURNS MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY AS ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
FRONTAL PASSAGE IS CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED MONDAY...WITH THE
PROBABILITY OF RAIN SHOWERS INCREASING FROM A SLIGHT CHANCE SUNDAY
NIGHT TO A CHANCE ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT SOUTHEAST OF I-65. /08

&&

.MARINE...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER EAST TEXAS AND THE WESTERN GULF
WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD REACHING THE EASTERN GULF AND FL
PENINSULA LATE IN THE WEEK. A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN GULF WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING THEN SLOWLY
DIMINISH THROUGH WED AFTERNOON. A MODERATE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL DEVELOP EARLY THU AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE
TO AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EASTWARD OVER CENTRAL PARTS OF
MS...AL AND GA THU THROUGH FRI. A LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW
WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW LATE FRI THEN BUILD OVER THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A DEEPER SURGE OF COLDER AIR
MOVES DOWN OVER MUCH OF THE DEEP SOUTH AND NORTHERN GULF. AS A RESULT
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE REQUIRED LATE SAT INTO SUN. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      29  53  38  68 /   0   0   0   0
PENSACOLA   30  53  39  66 /   0   0   0   0
DESTIN      33  52  40  64 /   0   0   0   0
EVERGREEN   25  51  30  68 /   0   0   0   0
WAYNESBORO  23  52  28  71 /   0   0   0   0
CAMDEN      24  50  28  66 /   0   0   0   0
CRESTVIEW   26  53  29  68 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ALZ051>060-
     261>266.

FL...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR FLZ201>206.

MS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MSZ067-075-076-
     078-079.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ650-655-670-
     675.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ630>635.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MOB





000
FXUS64 KMOB 091735
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1135 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z ISSUANCE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
SUBSIDING AFTER SUNSET. EXPECT WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AT 15 TO 25
KNOTS BEFORE SUBSIDING TONIGHT TO A LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW
INLAND...AND AROUND 10 KNOTS CLOSER TO THE COAST. 13/MH

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...A DEEP LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE
EASTERN STATES BEGINS TO BOTH WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AND SHIFT EASTWARD
TONIGHT. THIS REMAINS AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER TROF AND IS ABOUT 3
STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS OVER THE EXTREME
SOUTHEAST STATES FOLLOWED BY MODEST WEAKENING TONIGHT.  A TIGHT
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE PRESENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY WHICH LOOKS SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS
ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE HRRR GUIDANCE.  HAVE ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY BEGINNING MID MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.  DEEP LAYER DRY AIR WILL OTHERWISE BE
IN PLACE WITH DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT.  HIGHS
TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S WELL INLAND TO AROUND 50 CLOSER TO
THE COAST.  LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE COLD AND RANGE FROM THE LOWER/MID
20S INLAND TO NEAR 30 AT THE COAST. /29

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...WEDNESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS MOVES THOUGH...SHIFTING THE TROUGH AXIS EAST. THE
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS REMAINS PUT...THOUGH. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE WORKING ITS WAY SOUTHEAST OVER THE PLAINS WORKS WITH A
SEMI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY THAT HAS SET UP OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS...RUNNING FROM THE NORTHERN US ROCKIES SOUTHEAST TO NE FLORIDA
AND UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPS OVER THE PLAINS TO CREATE AND MOVE
SOUTHEAST A WEAKLY ORGANIZED SURFACE LOW OVER THE PLAINS. THIS PUTS A
SURFACE HIGH OVER TX ESE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND
ULTIMATELY  RESTORING ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY AND THE FA. THIS RESULTS IN TEMPS WARMING FROM WELL BELOW
SEASONAL WEDNESDAY (HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S) TO LESS BELOW
SEASONAL (LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S INLAND TO AROUND 40 ALONG THE COAST)
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A VERY DRY AIRMASS OVER THE FA AND SURROUNDING AREAS
HAS TO SIGNIFICANTLY MOISTEN UP...ALLOWING FOR THE LARGER THAN
SEASONAL DIURNAL CURVE.

THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE WEAK SHORTWAVE SWINGS
THROUGH...PUSHING A WEAK RE-ENFORCING FRONT NEAR THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW BRINGS TEMPS WELL
ABOVE SEASONAL...WITH HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...AND
LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 40S OVER MOST OF THE FA...UPPER
30S NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FA AS COOLER AIR STARTS TO MOVE BACK OF THE
FA.

/16

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH...
PUSHING A MORE SUBSTANTIAL RE-ENFORCING FRONT ACROSS THE FA SATURDAY.
TEMPS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT CONTINUE TO BE WELL ABOVE
SEASONAL...WITH HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE 60S...LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN
THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO MID 40S CLOSER TO THE COAST. HIGHS SATURDAY
SEE THE EFFECTS OF THE COOLER AIR......WITH TEMPS RISING INTO THE
LOWER TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE FA.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MORE UPPER ENERGY MOVES SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE PLAINS TO OVER THE MID (ECMWF)/UPPER (GFS) MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY...PUSHING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM OVER THE PLAINS TO
OVER THE EAST COAST. WITH THE DIVERGENCE IN THE UPPER PATTERN COMES A
DIVERGENCE IN THE RESULTANT TEMPS. THE MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK OF THE
ECMWF RESULTS IN A WARMER FORECAST...WITH A SURFACE LOW FORMING AND
MOVE FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS. WITH THE ECMWF ENSEMBLES HINTING AT
A COOLER FORECAST AND THE GFS ENSEMBLES ADVERTISING A WARMER
FORECAST...HAVE WENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR THE FORECAST.
TEMPS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S EXPECTED...WITH
HIGHS SUNDAY RANGING FROM AROUND 50 TO THE MID 50S.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS
AND ECMWF REALLY STAND OUT. WITH THE MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK OF THE RACK
OF THE SHORTWAVE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...ALONG WITH A
SPEEDING UP OF ENERGY MOVING INTO A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS...THE ECMWF IS ADVERTISING RAIN CROSSING THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WHILST THE SLOWER/MORE NORTHERLY GFS IS
ADVERTISING THE RAIN IN THE LATE MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT TIME
FRAME. HAVE WENT WITH AN IN BETWEEN PASSAGE CENTERING ON MONDAY. HAVE
ALSO WENT IN BETWEEN WITH THE TEMPS...WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF
ENSEMBLES ADVERTISING AN IN BETWEEN SOLUTION. LOWS SUNDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHTS GENERALLY IN THE 35 TO 40 DEGREE RANGE. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE
50S....WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN.

/16

MARINE...GALE CONDITIONS DUE TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE OPEN GULF WATERS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS OVER BAYS AND SOUNDS.   A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOLLOWS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT...THEN FOR THE OPEN GULF WATERS WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE
OFFSHORE FLOW GRADUALLY SUBSIDES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  A MODERATE
WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUES A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. /29

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR ALZ051>060-261>266.

FL...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR FLZ201>206.

MS...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR MSZ067-075-076-078-079.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON CST
     WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ650-655-670-675.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ650-655-670-
     675.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ630>635.

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ALZ051>060-
     261>266.

FL...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR FLZ201>206.

MS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MSZ067-075-076-
     078-079.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ650-655-670-
     675.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ650-655-670-
     675.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ630>635.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MOB




000
FXUS64 KMOB 091735
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1135 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z ISSUANCE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
SUBSIDING AFTER SUNSET. EXPECT WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AT 15 TO 25
KNOTS BEFORE SUBSIDING TONIGHT TO A LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW
INLAND...AND AROUND 10 KNOTS CLOSER TO THE COAST. 13/MH

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...A DEEP LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE
EASTERN STATES BEGINS TO BOTH WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AND SHIFT EASTWARD
TONIGHT. THIS REMAINS AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER TROF AND IS ABOUT 3
STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS OVER THE EXTREME
SOUTHEAST STATES FOLLOWED BY MODEST WEAKENING TONIGHT.  A TIGHT
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE PRESENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY WHICH LOOKS SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS
ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE HRRR GUIDANCE.  HAVE ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY BEGINNING MID MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.  DEEP LAYER DRY AIR WILL OTHERWISE BE
IN PLACE WITH DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT.  HIGHS
TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S WELL INLAND TO AROUND 50 CLOSER TO
THE COAST.  LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE COLD AND RANGE FROM THE LOWER/MID
20S INLAND TO NEAR 30 AT THE COAST. /29

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...WEDNESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS MOVES THOUGH...SHIFTING THE TROUGH AXIS EAST. THE
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS REMAINS PUT...THOUGH. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE WORKING ITS WAY SOUTHEAST OVER THE PLAINS WORKS WITH A
SEMI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY THAT HAS SET UP OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS...RUNNING FROM THE NORTHERN US ROCKIES SOUTHEAST TO NE FLORIDA
AND UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPS OVER THE PLAINS TO CREATE AND MOVE
SOUTHEAST A WEAKLY ORGANIZED SURFACE LOW OVER THE PLAINS. THIS PUTS A
SURFACE HIGH OVER TX ESE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND
ULTIMATELY  RESTORING ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY AND THE FA. THIS RESULTS IN TEMPS WARMING FROM WELL BELOW
SEASONAL WEDNESDAY (HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S) TO LESS BELOW
SEASONAL (LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S INLAND TO AROUND 40 ALONG THE COAST)
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A VERY DRY AIRMASS OVER THE FA AND SURROUNDING AREAS
HAS TO SIGNIFICANTLY MOISTEN UP...ALLOWING FOR THE LARGER THAN
SEASONAL DIURNAL CURVE.

THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE WEAK SHORTWAVE SWINGS
THROUGH...PUSHING A WEAK RE-ENFORCING FRONT NEAR THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW BRINGS TEMPS WELL
ABOVE SEASONAL...WITH HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...AND
LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 40S OVER MOST OF THE FA...UPPER
30S NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FA AS COOLER AIR STARTS TO MOVE BACK OF THE
FA.

/16

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH...
PUSHING A MORE SUBSTANTIAL RE-ENFORCING FRONT ACROSS THE FA SATURDAY.
TEMPS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT CONTINUE TO BE WELL ABOVE
SEASONAL...WITH HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE 60S...LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN
THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO MID 40S CLOSER TO THE COAST. HIGHS SATURDAY
SEE THE EFFECTS OF THE COOLER AIR......WITH TEMPS RISING INTO THE
LOWER TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE FA.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MORE UPPER ENERGY MOVES SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE PLAINS TO OVER THE MID (ECMWF)/UPPER (GFS) MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY...PUSHING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM OVER THE PLAINS TO
OVER THE EAST COAST. WITH THE DIVERGENCE IN THE UPPER PATTERN COMES A
DIVERGENCE IN THE RESULTANT TEMPS. THE MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK OF THE
ECMWF RESULTS IN A WARMER FORECAST...WITH A SURFACE LOW FORMING AND
MOVE FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS. WITH THE ECMWF ENSEMBLES HINTING AT
A COOLER FORECAST AND THE GFS ENSEMBLES ADVERTISING A WARMER
FORECAST...HAVE WENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR THE FORECAST.
TEMPS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S EXPECTED...WITH
HIGHS SUNDAY RANGING FROM AROUND 50 TO THE MID 50S.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS
AND ECMWF REALLY STAND OUT. WITH THE MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK OF THE RACK
OF THE SHORTWAVE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...ALONG WITH A
SPEEDING UP OF ENERGY MOVING INTO A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS...THE ECMWF IS ADVERTISING RAIN CROSSING THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WHILST THE SLOWER/MORE NORTHERLY GFS IS
ADVERTISING THE RAIN IN THE LATE MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT TIME
FRAME. HAVE WENT WITH AN IN BETWEEN PASSAGE CENTERING ON MONDAY. HAVE
ALSO WENT IN BETWEEN WITH THE TEMPS...WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF
ENSEMBLES ADVERTISING AN IN BETWEEN SOLUTION. LOWS SUNDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHTS GENERALLY IN THE 35 TO 40 DEGREE RANGE. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE
50S....WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN.

/16

MARINE...GALE CONDITIONS DUE TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE OPEN GULF WATERS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS OVER BAYS AND SOUNDS.   A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOLLOWS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT...THEN FOR THE OPEN GULF WATERS WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE
OFFSHORE FLOW GRADUALLY SUBSIDES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  A MODERATE
WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUES A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. /29

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR ALZ051>060-261>266.

FL...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR FLZ201>206.

MS...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR MSZ067-075-076-078-079.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON CST
     WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ650-655-670-675.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ650-655-670-
     675.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ630>635.

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ALZ051>060-
     261>266.

FL...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR FLZ201>206.

MS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MSZ067-075-076-
     078-079.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ650-655-670-
     675.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ650-655-670-
     675.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ630>635.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MOB





000
FXUS64 KMOB 091735
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1135 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z ISSUANCE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
SUBSIDING AFTER SUNSET. EXPECT WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AT 15 TO 25
KNOTS BEFORE SUBSIDING TONIGHT TO A LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW
INLAND...AND AROUND 10 KNOTS CLOSER TO THE COAST. 13/MH

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...A DEEP LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE
EASTERN STATES BEGINS TO BOTH WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AND SHIFT EASTWARD
TONIGHT. THIS REMAINS AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER TROF AND IS ABOUT 3
STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS OVER THE EXTREME
SOUTHEAST STATES FOLLOWED BY MODEST WEAKENING TONIGHT.  A TIGHT
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE PRESENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY WHICH LOOKS SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS
ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE HRRR GUIDANCE.  HAVE ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY BEGINNING MID MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.  DEEP LAYER DRY AIR WILL OTHERWISE BE
IN PLACE WITH DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT.  HIGHS
TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S WELL INLAND TO AROUND 50 CLOSER TO
THE COAST.  LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE COLD AND RANGE FROM THE LOWER/MID
20S INLAND TO NEAR 30 AT THE COAST. /29

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...WEDNESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS MOVES THOUGH...SHIFTING THE TROUGH AXIS EAST. THE
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS REMAINS PUT...THOUGH. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE WORKING ITS WAY SOUTHEAST OVER THE PLAINS WORKS WITH A
SEMI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY THAT HAS SET UP OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS...RUNNING FROM THE NORTHERN US ROCKIES SOUTHEAST TO NE FLORIDA
AND UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPS OVER THE PLAINS TO CREATE AND MOVE
SOUTHEAST A WEAKLY ORGANIZED SURFACE LOW OVER THE PLAINS. THIS PUTS A
SURFACE HIGH OVER TX ESE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND
ULTIMATELY  RESTORING ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY AND THE FA. THIS RESULTS IN TEMPS WARMING FROM WELL BELOW
SEASONAL WEDNESDAY (HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S) TO LESS BELOW
SEASONAL (LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S INLAND TO AROUND 40 ALONG THE COAST)
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A VERY DRY AIRMASS OVER THE FA AND SURROUNDING AREAS
HAS TO SIGNIFICANTLY MOISTEN UP...ALLOWING FOR THE LARGER THAN
SEASONAL DIURNAL CURVE.

THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE WEAK SHORTWAVE SWINGS
THROUGH...PUSHING A WEAK RE-ENFORCING FRONT NEAR THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW BRINGS TEMPS WELL
ABOVE SEASONAL...WITH HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...AND
LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 40S OVER MOST OF THE FA...UPPER
30S NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FA AS COOLER AIR STARTS TO MOVE BACK OF THE
FA.

/16

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH...
PUSHING A MORE SUBSTANTIAL RE-ENFORCING FRONT ACROSS THE FA SATURDAY.
TEMPS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT CONTINUE TO BE WELL ABOVE
SEASONAL...WITH HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE 60S...LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN
THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO MID 40S CLOSER TO THE COAST. HIGHS SATURDAY
SEE THE EFFECTS OF THE COOLER AIR......WITH TEMPS RISING INTO THE
LOWER TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE FA.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MORE UPPER ENERGY MOVES SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE PLAINS TO OVER THE MID (ECMWF)/UPPER (GFS) MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY...PUSHING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM OVER THE PLAINS TO
OVER THE EAST COAST. WITH THE DIVERGENCE IN THE UPPER PATTERN COMES A
DIVERGENCE IN THE RESULTANT TEMPS. THE MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK OF THE
ECMWF RESULTS IN A WARMER FORECAST...WITH A SURFACE LOW FORMING AND
MOVE FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS. WITH THE ECMWF ENSEMBLES HINTING AT
A COOLER FORECAST AND THE GFS ENSEMBLES ADVERTISING A WARMER
FORECAST...HAVE WENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR THE FORECAST.
TEMPS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S EXPECTED...WITH
HIGHS SUNDAY RANGING FROM AROUND 50 TO THE MID 50S.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS
AND ECMWF REALLY STAND OUT. WITH THE MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK OF THE RACK
OF THE SHORTWAVE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...ALONG WITH A
SPEEDING UP OF ENERGY MOVING INTO A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS...THE ECMWF IS ADVERTISING RAIN CROSSING THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WHILST THE SLOWER/MORE NORTHERLY GFS IS
ADVERTISING THE RAIN IN THE LATE MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT TIME
FRAME. HAVE WENT WITH AN IN BETWEEN PASSAGE CENTERING ON MONDAY. HAVE
ALSO WENT IN BETWEEN WITH THE TEMPS...WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF
ENSEMBLES ADVERTISING AN IN BETWEEN SOLUTION. LOWS SUNDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHTS GENERALLY IN THE 35 TO 40 DEGREE RANGE. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE
50S....WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN.

/16

MARINE...GALE CONDITIONS DUE TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE OPEN GULF WATERS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS OVER BAYS AND SOUNDS.   A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOLLOWS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT...THEN FOR THE OPEN GULF WATERS WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE
OFFSHORE FLOW GRADUALLY SUBSIDES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  A MODERATE
WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUES A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. /29

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR ALZ051>060-261>266.

FL...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR FLZ201>206.

MS...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR MSZ067-075-076-078-079.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON CST
     WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ650-655-670-675.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ650-655-670-
     675.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ630>635.

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ALZ051>060-
     261>266.

FL...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR FLZ201>206.

MS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MSZ067-075-076-
     078-079.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ650-655-670-
     675.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ650-655-670-
     675.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ630>635.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MOB





000
FXUS64 KMOB 091131 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
531 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE AFTERNOON BEFORE SUBSIDING TONIGHT TO A LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW
INLAND...AND AROUND 10 KNOTS CLOSER TO THE COAST. /29

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...A DEEP LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE
EASTERN STATES BEGINS TO BOTH WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AND SHIFT EASTWARD
TONIGHT. THIS REMAINS AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER TROF AND IS ABOUT 3
STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS OVER THE EXTREME
SOUTHEAST STATES FOLLOWED BY MODEST WEAKENING TONIGHT.  A TIGHT
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE PRESENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY WHICH LOOKS SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS
ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE HRRR GUIDANCE.  HAVE ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY BEGINNING MID MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.  DEEP LAYER DRY AIR WILL OTHERWISE BE
IN PLACE WITH DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT.  HIGHS
TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S WELL INLAND TO AROUND 50 CLOSER TO
THE COAST.  LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE COLD AND RANGE FROM THE LOWER/MID
20S INLAND TO NEAR 30 AT THE COAST. /29

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...WEDNESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS MOVES THOUGH...SHIFTING THE TROUGH AXIS EAST. THE
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS REMAINS PUT...THOUGH. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE WORKING ITS WAY SOUTHEAST OVER THE PLAINS WORKS WITH A
SEMI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY THAT HAS SET UP OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS...RUNNING FROM THE NORTHERN US ROCKIES SOUTHEAST TO NE FLORIDA
AND UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPS OVER THE PLAINS TO CREATE AND MOVE
SOUTHEAST A WEAKLY ORGANIZED SURFACE LOW OVER THE PLAINS. THIS PUTS A
SURFACE HIGH OVER TX ESE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND
ULTIMATELY  RESTORING ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY AND THE FA. THIS RESULTS IN TEMPS WARMING FROM WELL BELOW
SEASONAL WEDNESDAY (HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S) TO LESS BELOW
SEASONAL (LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S INLAND TO AROUND 40 ALONG THE COAST)
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A VERY DRY AIRMASS OVER THE FA AND SURROUNDING AREAS
HAS TO SIGNIFICANTLY MOISTEN UP...ALLOWING FOR THE LARGER THAN
SEASONAL DIURNAL CURVE.

THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE WEAK SHORTWAVE SWINGS
THROUGH...PUSHING A WEAK RE-ENFORCING FRONT NEAR THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW BRINGS TEMPS WELL
ABOVE SEASONAL...WITH HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...AND
LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 40S OVER MOST OF THE FA...UPPER
30S NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FA AS COOLER AIR STARTS TO MOVE BACK OF THE
FA.

/16

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH...
PUSHING A MORE SUBSTANTIAL RE-ENFORCING FRONT ACROSS THE FA SATURDAY.
TEMPS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT CONTINUE TO BE WELL ABOVE
SEASONAL...WITH HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE 60S...LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN
THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO MID 40S CLOSER TO THE COAST. HIGHS SATURDAY
SEE THE EFFECTS OF THE COOLER AIR......WITH TEMPS RISING INTO THE
LOWER TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE FA.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MORE UPPER ENERGY MOVES SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE PLAINS TO OVER THE MID (ECMWF)/UPPER (GFS) MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY...PUSHING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM OVER THE PLAINS TO
OVER THE EAST COAST. WITH THE DIVERGENCE IN THE UPPER PATTERN COMES A
DIVERGENCE IN THE RESULTANT TEMPS. THE MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK OF THE
ECMWF RESULTS IN A WARMER FORECAST...WITH A SURFACE LOW FORMING AND
MOVE FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS. WITH THE ECMWF ENSEMBLES HINTING AT
A COOLER FORECAST AND THE GFS ENSEMBLES ADVERTISING A WARMER
FORECAST...HAVE WENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR THE FORECAST.
TEMPS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S EXPECTED...WITH
HIGHS SUNDAY RANGING FROM AROUND 50 TO THE MID 50S.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS
AND ECMWF REALLY STAND OUT. WITH THE MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK OF THE RACK
OF THE SHORTWAVE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...ALONG WITH A
SPEEDING UP OF ENERGY MOVING INTO A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS...THE ECMWF IS ADVERTISING RAIN CROSSING THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WHILST THE SLOWER/MORE NORTHERLY GFS IS
ADVERTISING THE RAIN IN THE LATE MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT TIME
FRAME. HAVE WENT WITH AN IN BETWEEN PASSAGE CENTERING ON MONDAY. HAVE
ALSO WENT IN BETWEEN WITH THE TEMPS...WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF
ENSEMBLES ADVERTISING AN IN BETWEEN SOLUTION. LOWS SUNDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHTS GENERALLY IN THE 35 TO 40 DEGREE RANGE. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE
50S....WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN.

/16

MARINE...GALE CONDITIONS DUE TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE OPEN GULF WATERS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS OVER BAYS AND SOUNDS.   A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOLLOWS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT...THEN FOR THE OPEN GULF WATERS WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE
OFFSHORE FLOW GRADUALLY SUBSIDES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  A MODERATE
WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUES A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. /29

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR ALZ051>060-261>266.

FL...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR FLZ201>206.

MS...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR MSZ067-075-076-078-079.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON CST
     WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ650-655-670-675.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ650-655-670-
     675.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ630>635.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MOB





000
FXUS64 KMOB 091013
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
413 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...A DEEP LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE
EASTERN STATES BEGINS TO BOTH WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AND SHIFT EASTWARD
TONIGHT. THIS REMAINS AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER TROF AND IS ABOUT 3
STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS OVER THE EXTREME
SOUTHEAST STATES FOLLOWED BY MODEST WEAKENING TONIGHT.  A TIGHT
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE PRESENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY WHICH LOOKS SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS
ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE HRRR GUIDANCE.  HAVE ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY BEGINNING MID MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.  DEEP LAYER DRY AIR WILL OTHERWISE BE
IN PLACE WITH DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT.  HIGHS
TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S WELL INLAND TO AROUND 50 CLOSER TO
THE COAST.  LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE COLD AND RANGE FROM THE LOWER/MID
20S INLAND TO NEAR 30 AT THE COAST. /29

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...WEDNESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS MOVES THOUGH...SHIFTING THE TROUGH AXIS EAST. THE
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS REMAINS PUT...THOUGH. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE WORKING ITS WAY SOUTHEAST OVER THE PLAINS WORKS WITH A
SEMI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY THAT HAS SET UP OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS...RUNNING FROM THE NORTHERN US ROCKIES SOUTHEAST TO NE FLORIDA
AND UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPS OVER THE PLAINS TO CREATE AND MOVE
SOUTHEAST A WEAKLY ORGANIZED SURFACE LOW OVER THE PLAINS. THIS PUTS A
SURFACE HIGH OVER TX ESE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND
ULTIMATELY  RESTORING ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY AND THE FA. THIS RESULTS IN TEMPS WARMING FROM WELL BELOW
SEASONAL WEDNESDAY (HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S) TO LESS BELOW
SEASONAL (LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S INLAND TO AROUND 40 ALONG THE COAST)
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A VERY DRY AIRMASS OVER THE FA AND SURROUNDING AREAS
HAS TO SIGNIFICANTLY MOISTEN UP...ALLOWING FOR THE LARGER THAN
SEASONAL DIURNAL CURVE.

THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE WEAK SHORTWAVE SWINGS
THROUGH...PUSHING A WEAK RE-ENFORCING FRONT NEAR THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW BRINGS TEMPS WELL
ABOVE SEASONAL...WITH HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...AND
LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 40S OVER MOST OF THE FA...UPPER
30S NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FA AS COOLER AIR STARTS TO MOVE BACK OF THE
FA.

/16

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH...
PUSHING A MORE SUBSTANTIAL RE-ENFORCING FRONT ACROSS THE FA SATURDAY.
TEMPS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT CONTINUE TO BE WELL ABOVE
SEASONAL...WITH HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE 60S...LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN
THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO MID 40S CLOSER TO THE COAST. HIGHS SATURDAY
SEE THE EFFECTS OF THE COOLER AIR......WITH TEMPS RISING INTO THE
LOWER TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE FA.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MORE UPPER ENERGY MOVES SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE PLAINS TO OVER THE MID (ECMWF)/UPPER (GFS) MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY...PUSHING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM OVER THE PLAINS TO
OVER THE EAST COAST. WITH THE DIVERGENCE IN THE UPPER PATTERN COMES A
DIVERGENCE IN THE RESULTANT TEMPS. THE MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK OF THE
ECMWF RESULTS IN A WARMER FORECAST...WITH A SURFACE LOW FORMING AND
MOVE FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS. WITH THE ECMWF ENSEMBLES HINTING AT
A COOLER FORECAST AND THE GFS ENSEMBLES ADVERTISING A WARMER
FORECAST...HAVE WENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR THE FORECAST.
TEMPS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S EXPECTED...WITH
HIGHS SUNDAY RANGING FROM AROUND 50 TO THE MID 50S.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS
AND ECMWF REALLY STAND OUT. WITH THE MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK OF THE RACK
OF THE SHORTWAVE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...ALONG WITH A
SPEEDING UP OF ENERGY MOVING INTO A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS...THE ECMWF IS ADVERTISING RAIN CROSSING THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WHILST THE SLOWER/MORE NORTHERLY GFS IS
ADVERTISING THE RAIN IN THE LATE MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT TIME
FRAME. HAVE WENT WITH AN IN BETWEEN PASSAGE CENTERING ON MONDAY. HAVE
ALSO WENT IN BETWEEN WITH THE TEMPS...WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF
ENSEMBLES ADVERTISING AN IN BETWEEN SOLUTION. LOWS SUNDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHTS GENERALLY IN THE 35 TO 40 DEGREE RANGE. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE
50S....WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN.

/16

&&

.MARINE...GALE CONDITIONS DUE TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE OPEN GULF WATERS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS OVER BAYS AND SOUNDS.   A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOLLOWS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT...THEN FOR THE OPEN GULF WATERS WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE
OFFSHORE FLOW GRADUALLY SUBSIDES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  A MODERATE
WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUES A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. /29

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      51  29  53  38 /   0   0   0   0
PENSACOLA   52  30  53  39 /   0   0   0   0
DESTIN      52  33  52  40 /   0   0   0   0
EVERGREEN   48  25  51  30 /   0   0   0   0
WAYNESBORO  48  23  52  28 /   0   0   0   0
CAMDEN      46  24  50  28 /  10   0   0   0
CRESTVIEW   50  26  53  29 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR ALZ051>060-261>266.

FL...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR FLZ201>206.

MS...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR MSZ067-075-076-078-079.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON CST
     WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ650-655-670-675.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ650-655-670-
     675.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ630>635.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MOB





000
FXUS64 KMOB 091013
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
413 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...A DEEP LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE
EASTERN STATES BEGINS TO BOTH WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AND SHIFT EASTWARD
TONIGHT. THIS REMAINS AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER TROF AND IS ABOUT 3
STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS OVER THE EXTREME
SOUTHEAST STATES FOLLOWED BY MODEST WEAKENING TONIGHT.  A TIGHT
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE PRESENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY WHICH LOOKS SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS
ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE HRRR GUIDANCE.  HAVE ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY BEGINNING MID MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.  DEEP LAYER DRY AIR WILL OTHERWISE BE
IN PLACE WITH DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT.  HIGHS
TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S WELL INLAND TO AROUND 50 CLOSER TO
THE COAST.  LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE COLD AND RANGE FROM THE LOWER/MID
20S INLAND TO NEAR 30 AT THE COAST. /29

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...WEDNESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS MOVES THOUGH...SHIFTING THE TROUGH AXIS EAST. THE
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS REMAINS PUT...THOUGH. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE WORKING ITS WAY SOUTHEAST OVER THE PLAINS WORKS WITH A
SEMI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY THAT HAS SET UP OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS...RUNNING FROM THE NORTHERN US ROCKIES SOUTHEAST TO NE FLORIDA
AND UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPS OVER THE PLAINS TO CREATE AND MOVE
SOUTHEAST A WEAKLY ORGANIZED SURFACE LOW OVER THE PLAINS. THIS PUTS A
SURFACE HIGH OVER TX ESE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND
ULTIMATELY  RESTORING ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY AND THE FA. THIS RESULTS IN TEMPS WARMING FROM WELL BELOW
SEASONAL WEDNESDAY (HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S) TO LESS BELOW
SEASONAL (LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S INLAND TO AROUND 40 ALONG THE COAST)
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A VERY DRY AIRMASS OVER THE FA AND SURROUNDING AREAS
HAS TO SIGNIFICANTLY MOISTEN UP...ALLOWING FOR THE LARGER THAN
SEASONAL DIURNAL CURVE.

THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE WEAK SHORTWAVE SWINGS
THROUGH...PUSHING A WEAK RE-ENFORCING FRONT NEAR THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW BRINGS TEMPS WELL
ABOVE SEASONAL...WITH HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...AND
LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 40S OVER MOST OF THE FA...UPPER
30S NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FA AS COOLER AIR STARTS TO MOVE BACK OF THE
FA.

/16

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH...
PUSHING A MORE SUBSTANTIAL RE-ENFORCING FRONT ACROSS THE FA SATURDAY.
TEMPS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT CONTINUE TO BE WELL ABOVE
SEASONAL...WITH HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE 60S...LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN
THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO MID 40S CLOSER TO THE COAST. HIGHS SATURDAY
SEE THE EFFECTS OF THE COOLER AIR......WITH TEMPS RISING INTO THE
LOWER TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE FA.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MORE UPPER ENERGY MOVES SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE PLAINS TO OVER THE MID (ECMWF)/UPPER (GFS) MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY...PUSHING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM OVER THE PLAINS TO
OVER THE EAST COAST. WITH THE DIVERGENCE IN THE UPPER PATTERN COMES A
DIVERGENCE IN THE RESULTANT TEMPS. THE MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK OF THE
ECMWF RESULTS IN A WARMER FORECAST...WITH A SURFACE LOW FORMING AND
MOVE FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS. WITH THE ECMWF ENSEMBLES HINTING AT
A COOLER FORECAST AND THE GFS ENSEMBLES ADVERTISING A WARMER
FORECAST...HAVE WENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR THE FORECAST.
TEMPS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S EXPECTED...WITH
HIGHS SUNDAY RANGING FROM AROUND 50 TO THE MID 50S.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS
AND ECMWF REALLY STAND OUT. WITH THE MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK OF THE RACK
OF THE SHORTWAVE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...ALONG WITH A
SPEEDING UP OF ENERGY MOVING INTO A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS...THE ECMWF IS ADVERTISING RAIN CROSSING THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WHILST THE SLOWER/MORE NORTHERLY GFS IS
ADVERTISING THE RAIN IN THE LATE MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT TIME
FRAME. HAVE WENT WITH AN IN BETWEEN PASSAGE CENTERING ON MONDAY. HAVE
ALSO WENT IN BETWEEN WITH THE TEMPS...WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF
ENSEMBLES ADVERTISING AN IN BETWEEN SOLUTION. LOWS SUNDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHTS GENERALLY IN THE 35 TO 40 DEGREE RANGE. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE
50S....WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN.

/16

&&

.MARINE...GALE CONDITIONS DUE TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE OPEN GULF WATERS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS OVER BAYS AND SOUNDS.   A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOLLOWS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT...THEN FOR THE OPEN GULF WATERS WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE
OFFSHORE FLOW GRADUALLY SUBSIDES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  A MODERATE
WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUES A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. /29

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      51  29  53  38 /   0   0   0   0
PENSACOLA   52  30  53  39 /   0   0   0   0
DESTIN      52  33  52  40 /   0   0   0   0
EVERGREEN   48  25  51  30 /   0   0   0   0
WAYNESBORO  48  23  52  28 /   0   0   0   0
CAMDEN      46  24  50  28 /  10   0   0   0
CRESTVIEW   50  26  53  29 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR ALZ051>060-261>266.

FL...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR FLZ201>206.

MS...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR MSZ067-075-076-078-079.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON CST
     WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ650-655-670-675.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ650-655-670-
     675.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ630>635.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MOB





000
FXUS64 KMOB 091013
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
413 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...A DEEP LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE
EASTERN STATES BEGINS TO BOTH WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AND SHIFT EASTWARD
TONIGHT. THIS REMAINS AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER TROF AND IS ABOUT 3
STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS OVER THE EXTREME
SOUTHEAST STATES FOLLOWED BY MODEST WEAKENING TONIGHT.  A TIGHT
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE PRESENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY WHICH LOOKS SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS
ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE HRRR GUIDANCE.  HAVE ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY BEGINNING MID MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.  DEEP LAYER DRY AIR WILL OTHERWISE BE
IN PLACE WITH DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT.  HIGHS
TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S WELL INLAND TO AROUND 50 CLOSER TO
THE COAST.  LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE COLD AND RANGE FROM THE LOWER/MID
20S INLAND TO NEAR 30 AT THE COAST. /29

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...WEDNESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS MOVES THOUGH...SHIFTING THE TROUGH AXIS EAST. THE
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS REMAINS PUT...THOUGH. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE WORKING ITS WAY SOUTHEAST OVER THE PLAINS WORKS WITH A
SEMI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY THAT HAS SET UP OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS...RUNNING FROM THE NORTHERN US ROCKIES SOUTHEAST TO NE FLORIDA
AND UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPS OVER THE PLAINS TO CREATE AND MOVE
SOUTHEAST A WEAKLY ORGANIZED SURFACE LOW OVER THE PLAINS. THIS PUTS A
SURFACE HIGH OVER TX ESE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND
ULTIMATELY  RESTORING ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY AND THE FA. THIS RESULTS IN TEMPS WARMING FROM WELL BELOW
SEASONAL WEDNESDAY (HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S) TO LESS BELOW
SEASONAL (LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S INLAND TO AROUND 40 ALONG THE COAST)
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A VERY DRY AIRMASS OVER THE FA AND SURROUNDING AREAS
HAS TO SIGNIFICANTLY MOISTEN UP...ALLOWING FOR THE LARGER THAN
SEASONAL DIURNAL CURVE.

THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE WEAK SHORTWAVE SWINGS
THROUGH...PUSHING A WEAK RE-ENFORCING FRONT NEAR THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW BRINGS TEMPS WELL
ABOVE SEASONAL...WITH HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...AND
LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 40S OVER MOST OF THE FA...UPPER
30S NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FA AS COOLER AIR STARTS TO MOVE BACK OF THE
FA.

/16

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH...
PUSHING A MORE SUBSTANTIAL RE-ENFORCING FRONT ACROSS THE FA SATURDAY.
TEMPS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT CONTINUE TO BE WELL ABOVE
SEASONAL...WITH HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE 60S...LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN
THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO MID 40S CLOSER TO THE COAST. HIGHS SATURDAY
SEE THE EFFECTS OF THE COOLER AIR......WITH TEMPS RISING INTO THE
LOWER TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE FA.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MORE UPPER ENERGY MOVES SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE PLAINS TO OVER THE MID (ECMWF)/UPPER (GFS) MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY...PUSHING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM OVER THE PLAINS TO
OVER THE EAST COAST. WITH THE DIVERGENCE IN THE UPPER PATTERN COMES A
DIVERGENCE IN THE RESULTANT TEMPS. THE MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK OF THE
ECMWF RESULTS IN A WARMER FORECAST...WITH A SURFACE LOW FORMING AND
MOVE FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS. WITH THE ECMWF ENSEMBLES HINTING AT
A COOLER FORECAST AND THE GFS ENSEMBLES ADVERTISING A WARMER
FORECAST...HAVE WENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR THE FORECAST.
TEMPS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S EXPECTED...WITH
HIGHS SUNDAY RANGING FROM AROUND 50 TO THE MID 50S.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS
AND ECMWF REALLY STAND OUT. WITH THE MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK OF THE RACK
OF THE SHORTWAVE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...ALONG WITH A
SPEEDING UP OF ENERGY MOVING INTO A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS...THE ECMWF IS ADVERTISING RAIN CROSSING THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WHILST THE SLOWER/MORE NORTHERLY GFS IS
ADVERTISING THE RAIN IN THE LATE MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT TIME
FRAME. HAVE WENT WITH AN IN BETWEEN PASSAGE CENTERING ON MONDAY. HAVE
ALSO WENT IN BETWEEN WITH THE TEMPS...WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF
ENSEMBLES ADVERTISING AN IN BETWEEN SOLUTION. LOWS SUNDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHTS GENERALLY IN THE 35 TO 40 DEGREE RANGE. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE
50S....WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN.

/16

&&

.MARINE...GALE CONDITIONS DUE TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE OPEN GULF WATERS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS OVER BAYS AND SOUNDS.   A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOLLOWS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT...THEN FOR THE OPEN GULF WATERS WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE
OFFSHORE FLOW GRADUALLY SUBSIDES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  A MODERATE
WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUES A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. /29

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      51  29  53  38 /   0   0   0   0
PENSACOLA   52  30  53  39 /   0   0   0   0
DESTIN      52  33  52  40 /   0   0   0   0
EVERGREEN   48  25  51  30 /   0   0   0   0
WAYNESBORO  48  23  52  28 /   0   0   0   0
CAMDEN      46  24  50  28 /  10   0   0   0
CRESTVIEW   50  26  53  29 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR ALZ051>060-261>266.

FL...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR FLZ201>206.

MS...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR MSZ067-075-076-078-079.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON CST
     WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ650-655-670-675.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ650-655-670-
     675.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ630>635.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MOB




000
FXUS64 KMOB 090548
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1148 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE SETTLED TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS
AROUND MOST OF THE LOCAL TERMINALS LATE THIS EVENING. WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH A
FEW GUSTS OF 20-25 KNOTS AGAIN BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING INTO TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. /21

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1008 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016/

DISCUSSION...SEE UPDATED INFORMATION FOR LAND AND MARINE AREAS BELOW.

UPDATE...THE MSLP GRADIENT HAS SLACKENED A BIT ACROSS THE REGION
THIS EVENING AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS REFLECT A CONTINUED DECREASE
IN WIND SPEED ACROSS MOST OF OUR AREA. LATEST OBSERVATIONS FROM NEAR
THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND BEACHES ALSO REVEAL A DOWNWARD TREND IN WIND
SPEED/GUSTS AND THE LATEST GUIDANCE FROM THE RAP13/HRRR INDICATE
THAT WHILE BREEZY CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE NEAR THE COAST
OVERNIGHT...WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS OVER 30 MPH NO LONGER APPEAR
LIKELY. WE WENT AHEAD AND DROPPED THE WIND ADVISORY NEAR THE
IMMEDIATE COAST TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY APPEAR ON TRACK. /21

MARINE UPDATE...MARINE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT WIND SPEEDS HAVE
SUBSIDED OVER THE PROTECTED WATERS THIS EVENING...AND GALE FORCE
GUSTS ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED. WE HAVE DOWNGRADED THE GALE WARNING TO
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL BAYS AND SOUNDS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
GALE WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE OPEN GULF WATERS OUT TO 60 NM WHERE
FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS WILL BE ESPECIALLY POSSIBLE WELL
OFFSHORE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL
CRAFT WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE WINDS
AND SEAS SUBSIDE WEDNESDAY. /21

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TUESDAY TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
     GMZ650-655-670-675.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM CST TUESDAY FOR GMZ650-655-670-675.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ630>635.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MOB





000
FXUS64 KMOB 090408 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1008 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.DISCUSSION...SEE UPDATED INFORMATION FOR LAND AND MARINE AREAS BELOW.

&&

.UPDATE...THE MSLP GRADIENT HAS SLACKENED A BIT ACROSS THE REGION
THIS EVENING AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS REFLECT A CONTINUED DECREASE
IN WIND SPEED ACROSS MOST OF OUR AREA. LATEST OBSERVATIONS FROM NEAR
THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND BEACHES ALSO REVEAL A DOWNWARD TREND IN WIND
SPEED/GUSTS AND THE LATEST GUIDANCE FROM THE RAP13/HRRR INDICATE
THAT WHILE BREEZY CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE NEAR THE COAST
OVERNIGHT...WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS OVER 30 MPH NO LONGER APPEAR
LIKELY. WE WENT AHEAD AND DROPPED THE WIND ADVISORY NEAR THE
IMMEDIATE COAST TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY APPEAR ON TRACK. /21

&&

.MARINE UPDATE...MARINE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT WIND SPEEDS HAVE
SUBSIDED OVER THE PROTECTED WATERS THIS EVENING...AND GALE FORCE
GUSTS ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED. WE HAVE DOWNGRADED THE GALE WARNING TO
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL BAYS AND SOUNDS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
GALE WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE OPEN GULF WATERS OUT TO 60 NM WHERE
FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS WILL BE ESPECIALLY POSSIBLE WELL
OFFSHORE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL
CRAFT WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE WINDS
AND SEAS SUBSIDE WEDNESDAY. /21

&&

.PREV AVIATION DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 647 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016/

AVIATION...00Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. SCATTERED TO OCCASIONALLY BROKEN CLOUD DECKS BETWEEN
5-10 KFT AGL WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS OF 15-20 KNOTS WILL
PERSIST TONIGHT... EXCEPT HIGHER NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND
BEACHES. NORTHWEST WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KNOTS LATE TUESDAY MORNING INTO TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. /21

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TUESDAY TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
     GMZ650-655-670-675.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM CST TUESDAY FOR GMZ650-655-670-675.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ630>635.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MOB





000
FXUS64 KMOB 090047 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
647 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.DISCUSSION...SEE UPDATED INFORMATION BELOW.

&&

.UPDATE...REGIONAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT NORTHWEST WINDS
HAVE SUBSIDED A BIT OVER INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA...THOUGH SOME
LOCATIONS ARE STILL GUSTING TO 20 TO 25 MPH AS OF 6 PM CST. FREQUENT
WIND GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH DO NOT APPEAR LIKELY OVER INTERIOR AREAS
OVERNIGHT...SO THE WIND ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE OVER THESE
LOCATIONS AT 6 PM. STRONGER WINDS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH
WILL PERIST NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND BEACHES OVERNIGHT...SO WILL
CONTINUE THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE COASTAL ZONES THROUGH 6 AM
TUESDAY. /21

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SCATTERED TO OCCASIONALLY BROKEN CLOUD DECKS BETWEEN 5-10 KFT AGL
WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS
WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS OF 15-20 KNOTS WILL PERSIST TONIGHT...
EXCEPT HIGHER NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND BEACHES. NORTHWEST WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KNOTS
LATE TUESDAY MORNING INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. /21

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016/

NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH TUESDAY/...LARGE...DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROF
CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE SOUTHERN US. THE MID LEVEL HEIGHT FIELD IS
AN ANOMALY WITH A LARGE AREA OF 3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW THE
MEAN OVERSPREADING THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT. HEIGHT
FALLS PIVOT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND EXPAND OVER THE SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT WITH MID LEVEL HEIGHT ANOMALIES SINKING TO 3 TO 4 STD`S
BELOW THE MEAN.

THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WAS MOVING OUT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND
WILL CLEAR THE AREA TONIGHT. MODERATE TO STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST
FLOW HAS SETUP FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE WIND ADVISORY
CONTINUES OVER THE LAND AREAS THROUGH 6 PM THIS EVENING. WITH COLD
AIR ADVECTION AND THE STRENGTH OF THE THERMAL GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
LAND SEA INTERFACE TONIGHT...FORECASTERS WILL MAINTAINING THE WIND
ADVISORY OVERNIGHT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL ZONES. OVERNIGHT LOWS
MOVE BELOW FREEZING NORTH OF THE COAST...WHILE RANGING FROM THE MID
TO UPPER 30S CLOSER TO THE BEACHES.

1000-850 MILLIBAR THICKNESSES ON TUESDAY LOOK TO BE BELOW 1300 METERS
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AND WITH A CONTINUED...WELL ESTABLISHED NORTHWEST
FLOW...HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA LOOK TO STRUGGLE TO GET
OUT OF THE 40S.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...A DEEP
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN THE COOL AND DRY WEATHER
PATTERN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
EAST ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA ON
THURSDAY WITH A LIGHT RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ON
WEDNESDAY WILL WARM BACK INTO THE LOW AND MID 60S ON THURSDAY DUE TO
THE RETURN FLOW. /13

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON
THE NEXT COLD FRONT LATE IN THE WEEK. THE GFS MOVES THE FRONT
THROUGH ON FRIDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF MOVES THE FRONT THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE RETURN WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
MOSTLY DRY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AND DRY AIR
MOVES INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT SATURDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD. THE HIGH RAPIDLY MOVES EAST SUNDAY WITH
RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER
COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. /13

MARINE...HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL MARINE CRAFT WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG FRONTAL
PASSAGE...GALE FORCE WIND CONDITIONS AND HIGH SEA STATES TO CONTINUE
INTO EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS HIGHEST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...RANGING
FROM 7 TO 10 FEET NEAR SHORE AND 10 TO 14 FEET WELL OFFSHORE TONIGHT.
TUESDAY...SEAS RANGE FROM 5 TO 8 FEET NEAR SHORE AND 8 TO 12 FEET
WELL OFFSHORE. NORTHWEST FLOW DECREASES AND SEAS SUBSIDE INTO THE
BY WEDNESDAY. /10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR ALZ265-266.

FL...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR FLZ202-204-206.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TUESDAY TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
     GMZ630>635-650-655-670-675.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM CST TUESDAY FOR GMZ630>635-650-655-670-
     675.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MOB





000
FXUS64 KMOB 090047 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
647 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.DISCUSSION...SEE UPDATED INFORMATION BELOW.

&&

.UPDATE...REGIONAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT NORTHWEST WINDS
HAVE SUBSIDED A BIT OVER INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA...THOUGH SOME
LOCATIONS ARE STILL GUSTING TO 20 TO 25 MPH AS OF 6 PM CST. FREQUENT
WIND GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH DO NOT APPEAR LIKELY OVER INTERIOR AREAS
OVERNIGHT...SO THE WIND ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE OVER THESE
LOCATIONS AT 6 PM. STRONGER WINDS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH
WILL PERIST NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND BEACHES OVERNIGHT...SO WILL
CONTINUE THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE COASTAL ZONES THROUGH 6 AM
TUESDAY. /21

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SCATTERED TO OCCASIONALLY BROKEN CLOUD DECKS BETWEEN 5-10 KFT AGL
WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS
WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS OF 15-20 KNOTS WILL PERSIST TONIGHT...
EXCEPT HIGHER NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND BEACHES. NORTHWEST WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KNOTS
LATE TUESDAY MORNING INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. /21

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016/

NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH TUESDAY/...LARGE...DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROF
CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE SOUTHERN US. THE MID LEVEL HEIGHT FIELD IS
AN ANOMALY WITH A LARGE AREA OF 3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW THE
MEAN OVERSPREADING THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT. HEIGHT
FALLS PIVOT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND EXPAND OVER THE SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT WITH MID LEVEL HEIGHT ANOMALIES SINKING TO 3 TO 4 STD`S
BELOW THE MEAN.

THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WAS MOVING OUT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND
WILL CLEAR THE AREA TONIGHT. MODERATE TO STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST
FLOW HAS SETUP FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE WIND ADVISORY
CONTINUES OVER THE LAND AREAS THROUGH 6 PM THIS EVENING. WITH COLD
AIR ADVECTION AND THE STRENGTH OF THE THERMAL GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
LAND SEA INTERFACE TONIGHT...FORECASTERS WILL MAINTAINING THE WIND
ADVISORY OVERNIGHT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL ZONES. OVERNIGHT LOWS
MOVE BELOW FREEZING NORTH OF THE COAST...WHILE RANGING FROM THE MID
TO UPPER 30S CLOSER TO THE BEACHES.

1000-850 MILLIBAR THICKNESSES ON TUESDAY LOOK TO BE BELOW 1300 METERS
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AND WITH A CONTINUED...WELL ESTABLISHED NORTHWEST
FLOW...HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA LOOK TO STRUGGLE TO GET
OUT OF THE 40S.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...A DEEP
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN THE COOL AND DRY WEATHER
PATTERN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
EAST ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA ON
THURSDAY WITH A LIGHT RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ON
WEDNESDAY WILL WARM BACK INTO THE LOW AND MID 60S ON THURSDAY DUE TO
THE RETURN FLOW. /13

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON
THE NEXT COLD FRONT LATE IN THE WEEK. THE GFS MOVES THE FRONT
THROUGH ON FRIDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF MOVES THE FRONT THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE RETURN WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
MOSTLY DRY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AND DRY AIR
MOVES INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT SATURDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD. THE HIGH RAPIDLY MOVES EAST SUNDAY WITH
RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER
COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. /13

MARINE...HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL MARINE CRAFT WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG FRONTAL
PASSAGE...GALE FORCE WIND CONDITIONS AND HIGH SEA STATES TO CONTINUE
INTO EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS HIGHEST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...RANGING
FROM 7 TO 10 FEET NEAR SHORE AND 10 TO 14 FEET WELL OFFSHORE TONIGHT.
TUESDAY...SEAS RANGE FROM 5 TO 8 FEET NEAR SHORE AND 8 TO 12 FEET
WELL OFFSHORE. NORTHWEST FLOW DECREASES AND SEAS SUBSIDE INTO THE
BY WEDNESDAY. /10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR ALZ265-266.

FL...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR FLZ202-204-206.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TUESDAY TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
     GMZ630>635-650-655-670-675.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM CST TUESDAY FOR GMZ630>635-650-655-670-
     675.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MOB




000
FXUS64 KMOB 090047 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
647 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.DISCUSSION...SEE UPDATED INFORMATION BELOW.

&&

.UPDATE...REGIONAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT NORTHWEST WINDS
HAVE SUBSIDED A BIT OVER INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA...THOUGH SOME
LOCATIONS ARE STILL GUSTING TO 20 TO 25 MPH AS OF 6 PM CST. FREQUENT
WIND GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH DO NOT APPEAR LIKELY OVER INTERIOR AREAS
OVERNIGHT...SO THE WIND ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE OVER THESE
LOCATIONS AT 6 PM. STRONGER WINDS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH
WILL PERIST NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND BEACHES OVERNIGHT...SO WILL
CONTINUE THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE COASTAL ZONES THROUGH 6 AM
TUESDAY. /21

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SCATTERED TO OCCASIONALLY BROKEN CLOUD DECKS BETWEEN 5-10 KFT AGL
WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS
WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS OF 15-20 KNOTS WILL PERSIST TONIGHT...
EXCEPT HIGHER NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND BEACHES. NORTHWEST WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KNOTS
LATE TUESDAY MORNING INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. /21

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016/

NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH TUESDAY/...LARGE...DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROF
CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE SOUTHERN US. THE MID LEVEL HEIGHT FIELD IS
AN ANOMALY WITH A LARGE AREA OF 3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW THE
MEAN OVERSPREADING THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT. HEIGHT
FALLS PIVOT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND EXPAND OVER THE SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT WITH MID LEVEL HEIGHT ANOMALIES SINKING TO 3 TO 4 STD`S
BELOW THE MEAN.

THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WAS MOVING OUT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND
WILL CLEAR THE AREA TONIGHT. MODERATE TO STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST
FLOW HAS SETUP FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE WIND ADVISORY
CONTINUES OVER THE LAND AREAS THROUGH 6 PM THIS EVENING. WITH COLD
AIR ADVECTION AND THE STRENGTH OF THE THERMAL GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
LAND SEA INTERFACE TONIGHT...FORECASTERS WILL MAINTAINING THE WIND
ADVISORY OVERNIGHT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL ZONES. OVERNIGHT LOWS
MOVE BELOW FREEZING NORTH OF THE COAST...WHILE RANGING FROM THE MID
TO UPPER 30S CLOSER TO THE BEACHES.

1000-850 MILLIBAR THICKNESSES ON TUESDAY LOOK TO BE BELOW 1300 METERS
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AND WITH A CONTINUED...WELL ESTABLISHED NORTHWEST
FLOW...HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA LOOK TO STRUGGLE TO GET
OUT OF THE 40S.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...A DEEP
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN THE COOL AND DRY WEATHER
PATTERN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
EAST ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA ON
THURSDAY WITH A LIGHT RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ON
WEDNESDAY WILL WARM BACK INTO THE LOW AND MID 60S ON THURSDAY DUE TO
THE RETURN FLOW. /13

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON
THE NEXT COLD FRONT LATE IN THE WEEK. THE GFS MOVES THE FRONT
THROUGH ON FRIDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF MOVES THE FRONT THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE RETURN WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
MOSTLY DRY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AND DRY AIR
MOVES INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT SATURDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD. THE HIGH RAPIDLY MOVES EAST SUNDAY WITH
RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER
COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. /13

MARINE...HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL MARINE CRAFT WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG FRONTAL
PASSAGE...GALE FORCE WIND CONDITIONS AND HIGH SEA STATES TO CONTINUE
INTO EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS HIGHEST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...RANGING
FROM 7 TO 10 FEET NEAR SHORE AND 10 TO 14 FEET WELL OFFSHORE TONIGHT.
TUESDAY...SEAS RANGE FROM 5 TO 8 FEET NEAR SHORE AND 8 TO 12 FEET
WELL OFFSHORE. NORTHWEST FLOW DECREASES AND SEAS SUBSIDE INTO THE
BY WEDNESDAY. /10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR ALZ265-266.

FL...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR FLZ202-204-206.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TUESDAY TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
     GMZ630>635-650-655-670-675.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM CST TUESDAY FOR GMZ630>635-650-655-670-
     675.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MOB





000
FXUS64 KMOB 082201
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
401 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH TUESDAY/...LARGE...DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROF
CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE SOUTHERN US. THE MID LEVEL HEIGHT FIELD IS
AN ANOMALY WITH A LARGE AREA OF 3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW THE
MEAN OVERSPREADING THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT. HEIGHT
FALLS PIVOT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND EXPAND OVER THE SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT WITH MID LEVEL HEIGHT ANOMALIES SINKING TO 3 TO 4 STD`S
BELOW THE MEAN.

THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WAS MOVING OUT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND
WILL CLEAR THE AREA TONIGHT. MODERATE TO STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST
FLOW HAS SETUP FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE WIND ADVISORY
CONTINUES OVER THE LAND AREAS THROUGH 6 PM THIS EVENING. WITH COLD
AIR ADVECTION AND THE STRENGTH OF THE THERMAL GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
LAND SEA INTERFACE TONIGHT...FORECASTERS WILL MAINTAINING THE WIND
ADVISORY OVERNIGHT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL ZONES. OVERNIGHT LOWS
MOVE BELOW FREEZING NORTH OF THE COAST...WHILE RANGING FROM THE MID
TO UPPER 30S CLOSER TO THE BEACHES.

1000-850 MILLIBAR THICKNESSES ON TUESDAY LOOK TO BE BELOW 1300 METERS
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AND WITH A CONTINUED...WELL ESTABLISHED NORTHWEST
FLOW...HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA LOOK TO STRUGGLE TO GET
OUT OF THE 40S.


.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...A DEEP
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN THE COOL AND DRY WEATHER
PATTERN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
EAST ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA ON
THURSDAY WITH A LIGHT RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ON
WEDNESDAY WILL WARM BACK INTO THE LOW AND MID 60S ON THURSDAY DUE TO
THE RETURN FLOW. /13


.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON
THE NEXT COLD FRONT LATE IN THE WEEK. THE GFS MOVES THE FRONT
THROUGH ON FRIDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF MOVES THE FRONT THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE RETURN WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
MOSTLY DRY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AND DRY AIR
MOVES INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT SATURDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD. THE HIGH RAPIDLY MOVES EAST SUNDAY WITH
RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER
COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. /13

&&

.MARINE...HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL MARINE CRAFT WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG FRONTAL
PASSAGE...GALE FORCE WIND CONDITIONS AND HIGH SEA STATES TO CONTINUE
INTO EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS HIGHEST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...RANGING
FROM 7 TO 10 FEET NEAR SHORE AND 10 TO 14 FEET WELL OFFSHORE TONIGHT.
TUESDAY...SEAS RANGE FROM 5 TO 8 FEET NEAR SHORE AND 8 TO 12 FEET
WELL OFFSHORE. NORTHWEST FLOW DECREASES AND SEAS SUBSIDE INTO THE
BY WEDNESDAY. /10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      30  50  31  53 /   0   0   0   0
PENSACOLA   35  51  34  53 /   0   0   0   0
DESTIN      38  51  37  54 /   0   0   0   0
EVERGREEN   30  48  29  50 /   0   0   0   0
WAYNESBORO  29  47  26  49 /   0   0   0   0
CAMDEN      30  45  28  49 /   0   0   0   0
CRESTVIEW   29  50  30  52 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR ALZ051>060-261>264.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR ALZ265-266.

FL...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR FLZ201-203-205.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR FLZ202-204-206.

MS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MSZ067-075-076-078-
     079.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TUESDAY TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
     GMZ630>635-650-655-670-675.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM CST TUESDAY FOR GMZ630>635-650-655-670-
     675.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MOB





000
FXUS64 KMOB 081739 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1139 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z ISSUANCE...COLD FRONT SURGES EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...BRINGING STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW. MAIN HAZARDS
THIS AFTERNOON FOR APPROACHES/DEPARTURES WILL BE STRONG WIND
GUSTS...UPWARDS OF 28 TO 33 KNOTS. SCATTERED MID LEVEL CU/STRATUS
MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST THIS AFTERNOON. /10

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1106 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016/

DISCUSSION...SEE UPDATED INFORMATION FOR LAND AREAS BELOW.

UPDATE...LARGE...DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROF CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE
SOUTHERN US. THE MID LEVEL HEIGHT FIELD IS AN ANOMALY WITH A LARGE
AREA OF 2 TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS (STD`S) BELOW THE MEAN
OVERSPREADING THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO
LOWER WITH ANOMALIES LOWERING TO 3 TO 4 STD`S BELOW THE MEAN AND
EXPANDING FROM CENTRAL MS...EASTWARD TO GEORGIA BY THIS EVENING.

THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT...MOVING ACROSS THE HEART OF THE FORECAST
AREA SURGES EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH WIND
SPEEDS HAVE YET TO RAMP UP...THEY WILL SOON. UPSTREAM...IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...NORTHWEST FLOW HAS BEEN STRENGTHENING WITH
GUSTS INCREASING TO BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KNOTS ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI...LOUISIANA...AND ARKANSAS. LATEST RADAR VELOCITY WIND
PROFILES SHOW WEST NORTHWEST FLOW NOW BETWEEN 40 AND 50 KNOTS BETWEEN
3 AND 6 KFT OFF THE SURFACE. A PERCENTAGE OF THIS IS EXPECTED TO MIX
DOWN DURING THE AFTERNOON...BRINGING WINDY CONDITIONS AND
TEMPERATURES HOLDING NEARLY STEADY THEN FALL DURING THE MID AND LATE
AFTERNOON AS COLD ADVECTION PROCESSES WILL BE UNDERWAY. WIND ADVISORY
CONTINUES. /10

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 531 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE...A STRONG FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...
BRINGING STRONGER LOW LEVEL WINDS TO THE AREA AS AN UPPER LOW SWIRLS
AROUND OVER THE UPPER MISS RIVER VALLEY AND OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL PUSH WRAP-AROUND STRATUS TO MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE FA TONIGHT. AM NOT EXPECTING CEILINGS TO FALL CLOSE TO FALL
BELOW IFR LEVELS...THOUGH.

/16

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 452 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016/

NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...THE FIRST 24HRS OF THE
FORECAST IS SHAPING UP TO BE ONE OF NUANCES. ON THE SYNOPTIC
SCALE...SHORTWAVE ENERGY SWIRLS AROUND AN UPPER LOW MOVING FROM
OVER WISCONSIN TO OVER THE UPPER OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS PUSHES A
FRONT ACROSS THE FCST AREA TODAY. THE SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST WITH THE UPPER DYNAMICS...AND AS A PIECE OF
ENERGY SWIRLS AROUND THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE UPPER LOW...A SECOND
SURFACE LOW FORMS OFF THE DELMARVA. THE PIECE OF ENERGY CAUSING THE
SURFACE LOW OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD EARLY THIS MORNING PUSHES A
STRONG FRONT ACROSS THE FCST AREA TODAY AS IT SWEEPS AROUND THE
SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW. WITH THE PUSH FROM THE UPPER
DYNAMICS BEING TODAY...WINDS WITH AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL BE STRONG...REACHING NEAR WIND ADVISORY LEVELS (ESPECIALLY IN
GUSTS). WITH FREQUENT GUSTS ABOVE ADVISORY LEVELS...HAVE LEFT THE
CURRENT WIND ADVISORY FOR THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND COASTAL
ZONES TONIGHT AS IS. TEMPS TODAY ACROSS THE FCST AREA WILL RANGE FROM
MID 50S NORTHWEST AS COOLER AIR GETS PUSHED OVER THE REGION...TO
AROUND 60 SOUTHEAST WITH THIS AREA BEING THE LAST TO SEE THE COOLER
AIR MOVE IN. TONIGHT...THE PIECE OF ENERGY SWEEPS AROUND THE BASE OF
THE UPPER LOW...PUSHING WRAP-AROUND STRATUS SOUTHEAST OVER THE FCST
AREA. NOT EXPECTING A STRONG ENOUGH PUSH TONIGHT FOR ANY LIGHT SHRA
THOUGH...SO LEFT PCPN OUT OF THE FORECAST. LOWS TONIGHT RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO MID 30S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...WITH
MIXING FROM THE WINDS TONIGHT HELPING TO OFFSET ANY RADIATIONAL
COOLING. 16/SAM

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...A DEEP NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL MAINTAIN THE COOL AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE REGION
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE
REGION. THE SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT JUST TO THE EAST OF THE FCST
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING. WHILE
THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES...WINDS WILL DECREASE AND BECOME
LESS GUSTY DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. CLEARS SKIES AND BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE. HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER 40S INLAND TO THE LOWER 50S AT
THE COAST. LOW TEMPERATURES BOTH TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS
RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER 20S INLAND TO THE LOW/MID 30S AT THE
COAST. 12/DS

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE
MENTIONED IN SHORT TERM CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST EARLY IN
THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS WELL TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE FCST AREA. GFS/ECMWF DIFFER SOMEWHAT WITH THIS
SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. GFS MOVES THE
ASSOCIATED FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON
FRIDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF MOVES THE FRONT ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. BOTH SOLUTIONS ADVERTISE RETURN FLOW AND
INCREASING MOISTURE OVER FCST AREA AS EARLY AS MIDDAY THURSDAY. THE
08/06Z GFS IS IN SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT AND CLOSER IN TIMING TO
THE ECMWF THAN WAS THE 08/00Z...SO SOME QUESTIONS TO THE FCST AT THIS
TIME. THIS SYSTEM IS SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN THE PAST SEVERAL FRONTAL
PASSAGES...AND WITH THE INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NOTED
ABOVE...MAY SEE A SMALL CHANCE FOR RAIN WITH ITS PASSAGE. DAYTIME
HIGH TEMPERATURES MODERATE INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S THURSDAY
AND INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S FRIDAY. A LITTLE COOLER FOR DAYTIME HIGHS
OVER THE WEEKEND IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE
50S. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS IN THE 40S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHTS...COOLING INTO THE 30S SATURDAY NIGHT. 12/DS

MARINE...A STRONG FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OVER THE MARINE AREA TODAY.
WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SETTING UP ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST FROM HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS AND SURFACE LOWS OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN STATES...GALE LEVEL WINDS LOOK TO BE LIKELY. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE EASING...SO WE
ARE EXPECTING SMALL CRAFT LEVEL OR HIGHER WINDS TO LAST INTO WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER WEAKER FRONT WILL CROSS THE MARINE AREA BY LATE FRIDAY BRINGING
A TEMPORARY RISE IN THE WINDS TO EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS...EASING FRIDAY
NIGHT. 16/SAM

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR ALZ051>060-261>264.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR ALZ265-266.

FL...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR FLZ201-203-205.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR FLZ202-204-206.

MS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MSZ067-075-076-078-
     079.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR GMZ630>635-650-655-
     670-675.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TUESDAY TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
     GMZ630>635-650-655-670-675.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM CST TUESDAY FOR GMZ630>635-650-655-670-
     675.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MOB





000
FXUS64 KMOB 081706 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1106 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.DISCUSSION...SEE UPDATED INFORMATION FOR LAND AREAS BELOW.

&&

.UPDATE...LARGE...DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROF CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE
SOUTHERN US. THE MID LEVEL HEIGHT FIELD IS AN ANOMALY WITH A LARGE
AREA OF 2 TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS (STD`S) BELOW THE MEAN
OVERSPREADING THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO
LOWER WITH ANOMALIES LOWERING TO 3 TO 4 STD`S BELOW THE MEAN AND
EXPANDING FROM CENTRAL MS...EASTWARD TO GEORGIA BY THIS EVENING.

THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT...MOVING ACROSS THE HEART OF THE FORECAST
AREA SURGES EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH WIND
SPEEDS HAVE YET TO RAMP UP...THEY WILL SOON. UPSTREAM...IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...NORTHWEST FLOW HAS BEEN STRENGTHENING WITH
GUSTS INCREASING TO BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KNOTS ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI...LOUISIANA...AND ARKANSAS. LATEST RADAR VELOCITY WIND
PROFILES SHOW WEST NORTHWEST FLOW NOW BETWEEN 40 AND 50 KNOTS BETWEEN
3 AND 6 KFT OFF THE SURFACE. A PERCENTAGE OF THIS IS EXPECTED TO MIX
DOWN DURING THE AFTERNOON...BRINGING WINDY CONDITIONS AND
TEMPERATURES HOLDING NEARLY STEADY THEN FALL DURING THE MID AND LATE
AFTERNOON AS COLD ADVECTION PROCESSES WILL BE UNDERWAY. WIND ADVISORY
CONTINUES. /10

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 531 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE...A STRONG FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...
BRINGING STRONGER LOW LEVEL WINDS TO THE AREA AS AN UPPER LOW SWIRLS
AROUND OVER THE UPPER MISS RIVER VALLEY AND OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL PUSH WRAP-AROUND STRATUS TO MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE FA TONIGHT. AM NOT EXPECTING CEILINGS TO FALL CLOSE TO FALL
BELOW IFR LEVELS...THOUGH.

/16

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 452 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016/

NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...THE FIRST 24HRS OF THE
FORECAST IS SHAPING UP TO BE ONE OF NUANCES. ON THE SYNOPTIC
SCALE...SHORTWAVE ENERGY SWIRLS AROUND AN UPPER LOW MOVING FROM
OVER WISCONSIN TO OVER THE UPPER OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS PUSHES A
FRONT ACROSS THE FCST AREA TODAY. THE SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST WITH THE UPPER DYNAMICS...AND AS A PIECE OF
ENERGY SWIRLS AROUND THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE UPPER LOW...A SECOND
SURFACE LOW FORMS OFF THE DELMARVA. THE PIECE OF ENERGY CAUSING THE
SURFACE LOW OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD EARLY THIS MORNING PUSHES A
STRONG FRONT ACROSS THE FCST AREA TODAY AS IT SWEEPS AROUND THE
SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW. WITH THE PUSH FROM THE UPPER
DYNAMICS BEING TODAY...WINDS WITH AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL BE STRONG...REACHING NEAR WIND ADVISORY LEVELS (ESPECIALLY IN
GUSTS). WITH FREQUENT GUSTS ABOVE ADVISORY LEVELS...HAVE LEFT THE
CURRENT WIND ADVISORY FOR THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND COASTAL
ZONES TONIGHT AS IS. TEMPS TODAY ACROSS THE FCST AREA WILL RANGE FROM
MID 50S NORTHWEST AS COOLER AIR GETS PUSHED OVER THE REGION...TO
AROUND 60 SOUTHEAST WITH THIS AREA BEING THE LAST TO SEE THE COOLER
AIR MOVE IN. TONIGHT...THE PIECE OF ENERGY SWEEPS AROUND THE BASE OF
THE UPPER LOW...PUSHING WRAP-AROUND STRATUS SOUTHEAST OVER THE FCST
AREA. NOT EXPECTING A STRONG ENOUGH PUSH TONIGHT FOR ANY LIGHT SHRA
THOUGH...SO LEFT PCPN OUT OF THE FORECAST. LOWS TONIGHT RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO MID 30S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...WITH
MIXING FROM THE WINDS TONIGHT HELPING TO OFFSET ANY RADIATIONAL
COOLING. 16/SAM

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...A DEEP NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL MAINTAIN THE COOL AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE REGION
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE
REGION. THE SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT JUST TO THE EAST OF THE FCST
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING. WHILE
THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES...WINDS WILL DECREASE AND BECOME
LESS GUSTY DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. CLEARS SKIES AND BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE. HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER 40S INLAND TO THE LOWER 50S AT
THE COAST. LOW TEMPERATURES BOTH TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS
RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER 20S INLAND TO THE LOW/MID 30S AT THE
COAST. 12/DS

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE
MENTIONED IN SHORT TERM CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST EARLY IN
THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS WELL TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE FCST AREA. GFS/ECMWF DIFFER SOMEWHAT WITH THIS
SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. GFS MOVES THE
ASSOCIATED FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON
FRIDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF MOVES THE FRONT ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. BOTH SOLUTIONS ADVERTISE RETURN FLOW AND
INCREASING MOISTURE OVER FCST AREA AS EARLY AS MIDDAY THURSDAY. THE
08/06Z GFS IS IN SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT AND CLOSER IN TIMING TO
THE ECMWF THAN WAS THE 08/00Z...SO SOME QUESTIONS TO THE FCST AT THIS
TIME. THIS SYSTEM IS SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN THE PAST SEVERAL FRONTAL
PASSAGES...AND WITH THE INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NOTED
ABOVE...MAY SEE A SMALL CHANCE FOR RAIN WITH ITS PASSAGE. DAYTIME
HIGH TEMPERATURES MODERATE INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S THURSDAY
AND INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S FRIDAY. A LITTLE COOLER FOR DAYTIME HIGHS
OVER THE WEEKEND IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE
50S. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS IN THE 40S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHTS...COOLING INTO THE 30S SATURDAY NIGHT. 12/DS

MARINE...A STRONG FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OVER THE MARINE AREA TODAY.
WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SETTING UP ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST FROM HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS AND SURFACE LOWS OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN STATES...GALE LEVEL WINDS LOOK TO BE LIKELY. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE EASING...SO WE
ARE EXPECTING SMALL CRAFT LEVEL OR HIGHER WINDS TO LAST INTO WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER WEAKER FRONT WILL CROSS THE MARINE AREA BY LATE FRIDAY BRINGING
A TEMPORARY RISE IN THE WINDS TO EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS...EASING FRIDAY
NIGHT. 16/SAM

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR ALZ051>060-261>264.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR ALZ265-266.

FL...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR FLZ201-203-205.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR FLZ202-204-206.

MS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MSZ067-075-076-078-
     079.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR GMZ630>635-650-655-
     670-675.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TUESDAY TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
     GMZ630>635-650-655-670-675.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM CST TUESDAY FOR GMZ630>635-650-655-670-
     675.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MOB





000
FXUS64 KMOB 081131
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
531 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE...A STRONG FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...
BRINGING STRONGER LOW LEVEL WINDS TO THE AREA AS AN UPPER LOW SWIRLS
AROUND OVER THE UPPER MISS RIVER VALLEY AND OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL PUSH WRAP-AROUND STRATUS TO MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE FA TONIGHT. AM NOT EXPECTING CEILINGS TO FALL CLOSE TO FALL
BELOW IFR LEVELS...THOUGH.

/16

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 452 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016/

NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...THE FIRST 24HRS OF THE
FORECAST IS SHAPING UP TO BE ONE OF NUANCES. ON THE SYNOPTIC
SCALE...SHORTWAVE ENERGY SWIRLS AROUND AN UPPER LOW MOVING FROM
OVER WISCONSIN TO OVER THE UPPER OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS PUSHES A
FRONT ACROSS THE FCST AREA TODAY. THE SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST WITH THE UPPER DYNAMICS...AND AS A PIECE OF
ENERGY SWIRLS AROUND THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE UPPER LOW...A SECOND
SURFACE LOW FORMS OFF THE DELMARVA. THE PIECE OF ENERGY CAUSING THE
SURFACE LOW OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD EARLY THIS MORNING PUSHES A
STRONG FRONT ACROSS THE FCST AREA TODAY AS IT SWEEPS AROUND THE
SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW. WITH THE PUSH FROM THE UPPER
DYNAMICS BEING TODAY...WINDS WITH AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL BE STRONG...REACHING NEAR WIND ADVISORY LEVELS (ESPECIALLY IN
GUSTS). WITH FREQUENT GUSTS ABOVE ADVISORY LEVELS...HAVE LEFT THE
CURRENT WIND ADVISORY FOR THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND COASTAL
ZONES TONIGHT AS IS. TEMPS TODAY ACROSS THE FCST AREA WILL RANGE FROM
MID 50S NORTHWEST AS COOLER AIR GETS PUSHED OVER THE REGION...TO
AROUND 60 SOUTHEAST WITH THIS AREA BEING THE LAST TO SEE THE COOLER
AIR MOVE IN. TONIGHT...THE PIECE OF ENERGY SWEEPS AROUND THE BASE OF
THE UPPER LOW...PUSHING WRAP-AROUND STRATUS SOUTHEAST OVER THE FCST
AREA. NOT EXPECTING A STRONG ENOUGH PUSH TONIGHT FOR ANY LIGHT SHRA
THOUGH...SO LEFT PCPN OUT OF THE FORECAST. LOWS TONIGHT RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO MID 30S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...WITH
MIXING FROM THE WINDS TONIGHT HELPING TO OFFSET ANY RADIATIONAL
COOLING. 16/SAM

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...A DEEP NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL MAINTAIN THE COOL AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE REGION
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE
REGION. THE SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT JUST TO THE EAST OF THE FCST
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING. WHILE
THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES...WINDS WILL DECREASE AND BECOME
LESS GUSTY DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. CLEARS SKIES AND BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE. HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER 40S INLAND TO THE LOWER 50S AT
THE COAST. LOW TEMPERATURES BOTH TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS
RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER 20S INLAND TO THE LOW/MID 30S AT THE
COAST. 12/DS

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE
MENTIONED IN SHORT TERM CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST EARLY IN
THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS WELL TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE FCST AREA. GFS/ECMWF DIFFER SOMEWHAT WITH THIS
SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. GFS MOVES THE
ASSOCIATED FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON
FRIDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF MOVES THE FRONT ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. BOTH SOLUTIONS ADVERTISE RETURN FLOW AND
INCREASING MOISTURE OVER FCST AREA AS EARLY AS MIDDAY THURSDAY. THE
08/06Z GFS IS IN SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT AND CLOSER IN TIMING TO
THE ECMWF THAN WAS THE 08/00Z...SO SOME QUESTIONS TO THE FCST AT THIS
TIME. THIS SYSTEM IS SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN THE PAST SEVERAL FRONTAL
PASSAGES...AND WITH THE INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NOTED
ABOVE...MAY SEE A SMALL CHANCE FOR RAIN WITH ITS PASSAGE. DAYTIME
HIGH TEMPERATURES MODERATE INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S THURSDAY
AND INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S FRIDAY. A LITTLE COOLER FOR DAYTIME HIGHS
OVER THE WEEKEND IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE
50S. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS IN THE 40S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHTS...COOLING INTO THE 30S SATURDAY NIGHT. 12/DS

MARINE...A STRONG FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OVER THE MARINE AREA TODAY.
WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SETTING UP ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST FROM HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS AND SURFACE LOWS OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN STATES...GALE LEVEL WINDS LOOK TO BE LIKELY. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE EASING...SO WE
ARE EXPECTING SMALL CRAFT LEVEL OR HIGHER WINDS TO LAST INTO WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER WEAKER FRONT WILL CROSS THE MARINE AREA BY LATE FRIDAY BRINGING
A TEMPORARY RISE IN THE WINDS TO EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS...EASING FRIDAY
NIGHT. 16/SAM

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
     ALZ051>060-261>264.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR ALZ265-266.

FL...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
     FLZ201-203-205.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR FLZ202-204-
     206.

MS...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
     MSZ067-075-076-078-079.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR GMZ650-655-670-675.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TUESDAY TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
     GMZ630>635-650-655-670-675.

     GALE WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 1 PM CST TUESDAY FOR GMZ630>635-
     650-655-670-675.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR GMZ630>635.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MOB





000
FXUS64 KMOB 081052
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
452 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...THE FIRST 24HRS OF THE
FORECAST IS SHAPING UP TO BE ONE OF NUANCES. ON THE SYNOPTIC
SCALE...SHORTWAVE ENERGY SWIRLS AROUND AN UPPER LOW MOVING FROM
OVER WISCONSIN TO OVER THE UPPER OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS PUSHES A
FRONT ACROSS THE FCST AREA TODAY. THE SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST WITH THE UPPER DYNAMICS...AND AS A PIECE OF
ENERGY SWIRLS AROUND THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE UPPER LOW...A SECOND
SURFACE LOW FORMS OFF THE DELMARVA. THE PIECE OF ENERGY CAUSING THE
SURFACE LOW OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD EARLY THIS MORNING PUSHES A
STRONG FRONT ACROSS THE FCST AREA TODAY AS IT SWEEPS AROUND THE
SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW. WITH THE PUSH FROM THE UPPER
DYNAMICS BEING TODAY...WINDS WITH AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL BE STRONG...REACHING NEAR WIND ADVISORY LEVELS (ESPECIALLY IN
GUSTS). WITH FREQUENT GUSTS ABOVE ADVISORY LEVELS...HAVE LEFT THE
CURRENT WIND ADVISORY FOR THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND COASTAL
ZONES TONIGHT AS IS. TEMPS TODAY ACROSS THE FCST AREA WILL RANGE FROM
MID 50S NORTHWEST AS COOLER AIR GETS PUSHED OVER THE REGION...TO
AROUND 60 SOUTHEAST WITH THIS AREA BEING THE LAST TO SEE THE COOLER
AIR MOVE IN. TONIGHT...THE PIECE OF ENERGY SWEEPS AROUND THE BASE OF
THE UPPER LOW...PUSHING WRAP-AROUND STRATUS SOUTHEAST OVER THE FCST
AREA. NOT EXPECTING A STRONG ENOUGH PUSH TONIGHT FOR ANY LIGHT SHRA
THOUGH...SO LEFT PCPN OUT OF THE FORECAST. LOWS TONIGHT RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO MID 30S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...WITH
MIXING FROM THE WINDS TONIGHT HELPING TO OFFSET ANY RADIATIONAL
COOLING. 16/SAM

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...A DEEP NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL MAINTAIN THE COOL AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE REGION
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE
REGION. THE SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT JUST TO THE EAST OF THE FCST
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING. WHILE
THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES...WINDS WILL DECREASE AND BECOME
LESS GUSTY DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. CLEARS SKIES AND BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE. HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER 40S INLAND TO THE LOWER 50S AT
THE COAST. LOW TEMPERATURES BOTH TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS
RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER 20S INLAND TO THE LOW/MID 30S AT THE
COAST. 12/DS

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE
MENTIONED IN SHORT TERM CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST EARLY IN
THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS WELL TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE FCST AREA. GFS/ECMWF DIFFER SOMEWHAT WITH THIS
SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. GFS MOVES THE
ASSOCIATED FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON
FRIDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF MOVES THE FRONT ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. BOTH SOLUTIONS ADVERTISE RETURN FLOW AND
INCREASING MOISTURE OVER FCST AREA AS EARLY AS MIDDAY THURSDAY. THE
08/06Z GFS IS IN SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT AND CLOSER IN TIMING TO
THE ECMWF THAN WAS THE 08/00Z...SO SOME QUESTIONS TO THE FCST AT THIS
TIME. THIS SYSTEM IS SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN THE PAST SEVERAL FRONTAL
PASSAGES...AND WITH THE INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NOTED
ABOVE...MAY SEE A SMALL CHANCE FOR RAIN WITH ITS PASSAGE. DAYTIME
HIGH TEMPERATURES MODERATE INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S THURSDAY
AND INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S FRIDAY. A LITTLE COOLER FOR DAYTIME HIGHS
OVER THE WEEKEND IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE
50S. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS IN THE 40S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHTS...COOLING INTO THE 30S SATURDAY NIGHT. 12/DS

.MARINE...A STRONG FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OVER THE MARINE AREA TODAY.
WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SETTING UP ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST FROM HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS AND SURFACE LOWS OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN STATES...GALE LEVEL WINDS LOOK TO BE LIKELY. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE EASING...SO WE
ARE EXPECTING SMALL CRAFT LEVEL OR HIGHER WINDS TO LAST INTO WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER WEAKER FRONT WILL CROSS THE MARINE AREA BY LATE FRIDAY BRINGING
A TEMPORARY RISE IN THE WINDS TO EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS...EASING FRIDAY
NIGHT. 16/SAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      57  30  50  32 /  10   0   0   0
PENSACOLA   60  33  51  34 /  10   0   0   0
DESTIN      58  37  51  38 /  10   0   0  10
EVERGREEN   57  30  48  29 /  10   0   0   0
WAYNESBORO  54  29  48  27 /  10   0   0   0
CAMDEN      55  30  46  29 /  10  10   0   0
CRESTVIEW   60  29  50  30 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
     ALZ051>060-261>264.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR ALZ265-266.

FL...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
     FLZ201-203-205.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR FLZ202-204-
     206.

MS...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
     MSZ067-075-076-078-079.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR GMZ650-655-670-675.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TUESDAY TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
     GMZ630>635-650-655-670-675.

     GALE WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 1 PM CST TUESDAY FOR GMZ630>635-
     650-655-670-675.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR GMZ630>635.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MOB





000
FXUS64 KMOB 080546
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1146 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z ISSUANCE...VFR FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT W/SW PREVAIL TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST
AND INCREASE TO 15-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KNOTS ESPECIALLY
AFTER 18Z MONDAY. SCATTERED LOWER CLOUD DECKS AROUND 4-6 KFT AGL ARE
POSSIBLE MONDAY. /21

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 943 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016/

DISCUSSION...SEE UPDATED INFORMATION FOR LAND AREAS BELOW.

UPDATE...THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND ONLY MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS
TO TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS. MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT W/SW WINDS WILL OTHERWISE PERSIST TONIGHT.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP 500 MB ANALYSIS SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
IN THE VICINITY OF NORTHERN WI AND THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN
THIS EVENING. A STRONG 90-110 KT 500 MB JET WAS DIVING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES TO THE WEST OF THE TROUGH AXIS WITH AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
STATES AND APPROACHING THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. THE COLD
FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK TO QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION MONDAY
MORNING...WITH INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF
FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE MONDAY MORNING INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. A WIND
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS INLAND AREAS MONDAY AFTERNOON...
AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
FOR EXPECTED FREQUENT GUSTS AROUND OR IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH. /21

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 426 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016/

NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH MONDAY/...FORECAST AREA IS POSITIONED
BETWEEN TWO WEATHER SYSTEMS. THE FIRST BEING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OFF THE COASTAL CAROLINA`S...LIFTING NORTH NORTHEAST AND THE SECOND
BEING A STRONG COLD FRONT SURGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. THERE IS A STRONG PUSH BEHIND THE PLAINS
FRONT WITH SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWING VERY STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW
FROM NEBRASKA...NORTHWARD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS...WHERE FORECASTERS
NOTE GUSTS RANGING FROM 35 TO 45 KNOTS. A FEW LOCALES IN THESE
STATES ARE SHOWING BETWEEN 50 AND 55 KNOTS AND THIS HAS BEEN THE
CASE FOR SEVERAL HOURS. A VERY STRONG SYSTEM INDEED. GIVEN THE
TRENDS SEEN UPSTREAM AND LATEST FORECAST LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILES IN
FORECAST SOUNDING DATA...FORECASTERS HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON AREA-WIDE. WILL MAINTAIN THIS ADVISORY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AS THE STRONG THERMAL GRADIENT/COLD
ADVECTION PATTERN BETWEEN THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE KEEPS WINDS HIGHER
THERE. WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACT FOR MONDAY.

THE ENSEMBLES ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED WITH AN ANOMALOUSLY LOW BASE TO
THE LONGWAVE TROF SETTING UP FROM ACROSS THE NORTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF MISSISSIPPI MONDAY AFTERNOON.
HEIGHTS ALOFT LOWER THROUGH THE DAY...SOME 3 TO 4 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS BELOW THE MEAN FROM GEORGIA TO MISSISSIPPI BY THE CLOSE
OF MONDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE LOWERING 1000-850 MILLIBAR THICKNESS
VALUES MONDAY AFTERNOON...A NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE IS
ANTICIPATED...PROGRESSIVELY LOWERING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS IS FORECAST FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE DAY MONDAY...BUT THE DEPTH OF THE MOISTURE
ALOFT IS SHALLOW DENOTED BY CROSS-SECTION ANALYSES. THUS...ALTHOUGH
UPPER LEVEL STORM/DYNAMICS IS AN ANOMALY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY MEASURABLE RAIN GIVEN THE SHALLOW RH STRATA ALOFT.
/10

SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...CONTINUED WINDY
ALONG THE ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST AS GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT THE
TROPOSPHERIC FOLD STILL OVER THE AREA COURTESY OF THE POTENT UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH PROPAGATING OVER THE AREA. WINDS THOUGH MAY TAPER BACK
TO BREEZY IN OUR MORE PROTECTED INLAND WITH A MIXTURE OF SPOTTY WINDY
CONDITIONS IN MORE EXPOSED AREAS AND EVEN LIGHT WINDS MIXED IN WHERE
ENOUGH COOLING CAN OCCUR IN SHELTERED AREAS TO SET UP A SHALLOW
INVERSION. BUT IN GENERAL COLD AIR ADVECTION (CAA) CONTINUES
OVERNIGHT KEEPING LOWER AIRMASS WELL MIXED AND ALLOWING HIGHER WINDS
ALOFT TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. GFS HAS TEMPERATURES AT THE 850 MB
LEVEL BOTTOMING OUT AT BETWEEN -8 TO -10C ACROSS THE AREA. OVERNIGHT
LOWS THOUGH WON`T PLUMMET TOO FAR DUE TO THE EFFICIENT
MIXING...GENERALLY MID 20S TO NEAR 30 NORTHWEST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR
AND NEAR 30 TO MID 30S SOUTHEAST.

WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
DEPARTS THE AREA. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL PROBABLY TOP OFF IN THE 40S AND
PERHAPS LOW 50S CLOSER TO THE COAST. DRY...COOL WEATHER PERSISTS THEN
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH...A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR IS
PROGGED TO PUSH THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF AND GFS DIVERGE
SIGNIFICANTLY ON THE IMPACTS TO SENSIBLE WEATHER E.G., GFS FORECASTS
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN SOME LOCATIONS AS MUCH AS 6 TO 11 DEGREES COLDER
THAN THE ECMWF. THE CAA DOESN`T APPEAR THAT STRONG AT THIS TIME BUT
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LIGHT WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD PROVIDE
EFFICIENT COOLING SO TRENDED TEMPERATURES A LITTLE COOLER THAN THE
LAST FORECAST PACKAGE BUT NOT AS COOL AS THE GFS. /08

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...BY THURSDAY HEIGHTS START TO
RISE ALOFT AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS TO THE NORTHEAST...FLOW
ALOFT GENERALLY BECOMES ZONAL BUT WE REMAIN MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH MORE THAN THE UPSTREAM RIDGE. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE IN ADVANCE OF THE FRIDAY NIGHT FRONT COULD RESULT IN A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN THEN...BUT MORE LIKE A SPRINKLE. TEMPERATURE
SHOULD WARM INTO THE 60S FRIDAY...UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S SATURDAY AND
MAINLY 50S ON SUNDAY. WHILE LOWS WILL TREND UPWARD FROM THE MID 30S
TO LOW 40S FRIDAY MORNING TO 40S TO LOW 50S SATURDAY MORNING AND THEN
DOWNWARD INTO THE 30S AND LOW 40S ON SUNDAY MORNING. /08

MARINE...HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL MARINE CRAFT TO DEVELOP
MONDAY AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
MONDAY MORNING IS LIKELY TO BRING GALE CONDITIONS AND HIGH SEAS IN
ITS WAKE MONDAY AFTERNOON...CONTINUING INTO EARLY TUESDAY. GALE
WATCHES HAVE BEEN UPGRADED TO WARNINGS ON THIS PACKAGE. DUE TO THE
STRONG NORTHWEST FETCH...SEAS WILL BE HIGHEST MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. SEAS BUILDING TO 5 TO 8 FEET NEAR SHORE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON
THEN 7 TO 10 FEET MONDAY NIGHT. WELL OFFSHORE...SEAS BUILD TO 8 TO
10 FEET BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND 10 TO 13 FEET MONDAY NIGHT.
/10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR ALZ051>060-
     261>264.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR ALZ265-
     266.

FL...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR FLZ201-203-205.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR FLZ202-
     204-206.

MS...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR MSZ067-075-076-
     078-079.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR GMZ650-655-670-
     675.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TUESDAY TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
     GMZ630>635-650-655-670-675.

     GALE WARNING FROM NOON MONDAY TO 1 PM CST TUESDAY FOR GMZ630>635-
     650-655-670-675.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR GMZ630>635.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MOB




000
FXUS64 KMOB 080546
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1146 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z ISSUANCE...VFR FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT W/SW PREVAIL TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST
AND INCREASE TO 15-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KNOTS ESPECIALLY
AFTER 18Z MONDAY. SCATTERED LOWER CLOUD DECKS AROUND 4-6 KFT AGL ARE
POSSIBLE MONDAY. /21

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 943 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016/

DISCUSSION...SEE UPDATED INFORMATION FOR LAND AREAS BELOW.

UPDATE...THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND ONLY MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS
TO TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS. MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT W/SW WINDS WILL OTHERWISE PERSIST TONIGHT.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP 500 MB ANALYSIS SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
IN THE VICINITY OF NORTHERN WI AND THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN
THIS EVENING. A STRONG 90-110 KT 500 MB JET WAS DIVING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES TO THE WEST OF THE TROUGH AXIS WITH AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
STATES AND APPROACHING THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. THE COLD
FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK TO QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION MONDAY
MORNING...WITH INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF
FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE MONDAY MORNING INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. A WIND
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS INLAND AREAS MONDAY AFTERNOON...
AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
FOR EXPECTED FREQUENT GUSTS AROUND OR IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH. /21

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 426 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016/

NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH MONDAY/...FORECAST AREA IS POSITIONED
BETWEEN TWO WEATHER SYSTEMS. THE FIRST BEING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OFF THE COASTAL CAROLINA`S...LIFTING NORTH NORTHEAST AND THE SECOND
BEING A STRONG COLD FRONT SURGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. THERE IS A STRONG PUSH BEHIND THE PLAINS
FRONT WITH SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWING VERY STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW
FROM NEBRASKA...NORTHWARD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS...WHERE FORECASTERS
NOTE GUSTS RANGING FROM 35 TO 45 KNOTS. A FEW LOCALES IN THESE
STATES ARE SHOWING BETWEEN 50 AND 55 KNOTS AND THIS HAS BEEN THE
CASE FOR SEVERAL HOURS. A VERY STRONG SYSTEM INDEED. GIVEN THE
TRENDS SEEN UPSTREAM AND LATEST FORECAST LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILES IN
FORECAST SOUNDING DATA...FORECASTERS HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON AREA-WIDE. WILL MAINTAIN THIS ADVISORY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AS THE STRONG THERMAL GRADIENT/COLD
ADVECTION PATTERN BETWEEN THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE KEEPS WINDS HIGHER
THERE. WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACT FOR MONDAY.

THE ENSEMBLES ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED WITH AN ANOMALOUSLY LOW BASE TO
THE LONGWAVE TROF SETTING UP FROM ACROSS THE NORTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF MISSISSIPPI MONDAY AFTERNOON.
HEIGHTS ALOFT LOWER THROUGH THE DAY...SOME 3 TO 4 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS BELOW THE MEAN FROM GEORGIA TO MISSISSIPPI BY THE CLOSE
OF MONDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE LOWERING 1000-850 MILLIBAR THICKNESS
VALUES MONDAY AFTERNOON...A NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE IS
ANTICIPATED...PROGRESSIVELY LOWERING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS IS FORECAST FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE DAY MONDAY...BUT THE DEPTH OF THE MOISTURE
ALOFT IS SHALLOW DENOTED BY CROSS-SECTION ANALYSES. THUS...ALTHOUGH
UPPER LEVEL STORM/DYNAMICS IS AN ANOMALY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY MEASURABLE RAIN GIVEN THE SHALLOW RH STRATA ALOFT.
/10

SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...CONTINUED WINDY
ALONG THE ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST AS GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT THE
TROPOSPHERIC FOLD STILL OVER THE AREA COURTESY OF THE POTENT UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH PROPAGATING OVER THE AREA. WINDS THOUGH MAY TAPER BACK
TO BREEZY IN OUR MORE PROTECTED INLAND WITH A MIXTURE OF SPOTTY WINDY
CONDITIONS IN MORE EXPOSED AREAS AND EVEN LIGHT WINDS MIXED IN WHERE
ENOUGH COOLING CAN OCCUR IN SHELTERED AREAS TO SET UP A SHALLOW
INVERSION. BUT IN GENERAL COLD AIR ADVECTION (CAA) CONTINUES
OVERNIGHT KEEPING LOWER AIRMASS WELL MIXED AND ALLOWING HIGHER WINDS
ALOFT TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. GFS HAS TEMPERATURES AT THE 850 MB
LEVEL BOTTOMING OUT AT BETWEEN -8 TO -10C ACROSS THE AREA. OVERNIGHT
LOWS THOUGH WON`T PLUMMET TOO FAR DUE TO THE EFFICIENT
MIXING...GENERALLY MID 20S TO NEAR 30 NORTHWEST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR
AND NEAR 30 TO MID 30S SOUTHEAST.

WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
DEPARTS THE AREA. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL PROBABLY TOP OFF IN THE 40S AND
PERHAPS LOW 50S CLOSER TO THE COAST. DRY...COOL WEATHER PERSISTS THEN
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH...A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR IS
PROGGED TO PUSH THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF AND GFS DIVERGE
SIGNIFICANTLY ON THE IMPACTS TO SENSIBLE WEATHER E.G., GFS FORECASTS
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN SOME LOCATIONS AS MUCH AS 6 TO 11 DEGREES COLDER
THAN THE ECMWF. THE CAA DOESN`T APPEAR THAT STRONG AT THIS TIME BUT
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LIGHT WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD PROVIDE
EFFICIENT COOLING SO TRENDED TEMPERATURES A LITTLE COOLER THAN THE
LAST FORECAST PACKAGE BUT NOT AS COOL AS THE GFS. /08

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...BY THURSDAY HEIGHTS START TO
RISE ALOFT AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS TO THE NORTHEAST...FLOW
ALOFT GENERALLY BECOMES ZONAL BUT WE REMAIN MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH MORE THAN THE UPSTREAM RIDGE. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE IN ADVANCE OF THE FRIDAY NIGHT FRONT COULD RESULT IN A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN THEN...BUT MORE LIKE A SPRINKLE. TEMPERATURE
SHOULD WARM INTO THE 60S FRIDAY...UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S SATURDAY AND
MAINLY 50S ON SUNDAY. WHILE LOWS WILL TREND UPWARD FROM THE MID 30S
TO LOW 40S FRIDAY MORNING TO 40S TO LOW 50S SATURDAY MORNING AND THEN
DOWNWARD INTO THE 30S AND LOW 40S ON SUNDAY MORNING. /08

MARINE...HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL MARINE CRAFT TO DEVELOP
MONDAY AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
MONDAY MORNING IS LIKELY TO BRING GALE CONDITIONS AND HIGH SEAS IN
ITS WAKE MONDAY AFTERNOON...CONTINUING INTO EARLY TUESDAY. GALE
WATCHES HAVE BEEN UPGRADED TO WARNINGS ON THIS PACKAGE. DUE TO THE
STRONG NORTHWEST FETCH...SEAS WILL BE HIGHEST MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. SEAS BUILDING TO 5 TO 8 FEET NEAR SHORE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON
THEN 7 TO 10 FEET MONDAY NIGHT. WELL OFFSHORE...SEAS BUILD TO 8 TO
10 FEET BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND 10 TO 13 FEET MONDAY NIGHT.
/10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR ALZ051>060-
     261>264.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR ALZ265-
     266.

FL...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR FLZ201-203-205.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR FLZ202-
     204-206.

MS...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR MSZ067-075-076-
     078-079.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR GMZ650-655-670-
     675.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TUESDAY TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
     GMZ630>635-650-655-670-675.

     GALE WARNING FROM NOON MONDAY TO 1 PM CST TUESDAY FOR GMZ630>635-
     650-655-670-675.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR GMZ630>635.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MOB





000
FXUS64 KMOB 080351 CCA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
943 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.DISCUSSION...SEE UPDATED INFORMATION FOR LAND AREAS BELOW.

&&

.UPDATE...THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND ONLY MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS
TO TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS. MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT W/SW WINDS WILL OTHERWISE PERSIST TONIGHT.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP 500 MB ANALYSIS SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
IN THE VICINITY OF NORTHERN WI AND THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN
THIS EVENING. A STRONG 90-110 KT 500 MB JET WAS DIVING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES TO THE WEST OF THE TROUGH AXIS WITH AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
STATES AND APPROACHING THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. THE COLD
FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK TO QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION MONDAY
MORNING...WITH INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF
FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE MONDAY MORNING INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. A WIND
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS INLAND AREAS MONDAY AFTERNOON...
AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
FOR EXPECTED FREQUENT GUSTS AROUND OR IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH. /21

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 600 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
00Z ISSUANCE...A VFR FORECAST CONTINUES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY
MORNING...AND WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KNOTS
WITH A FEW GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS EXPECTED BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED LOWER CLOUD DECKS AROUND 4-5 KFT AGL ARE POSSIBLE
MONDAY. /21

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 426 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016/

NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH MONDAY/...FORECAST AREA IS POSITIONED
BETWEEN TWO WEATHER SYSTEMS. THE FIRST BEING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OFF THE COASTAL CAROLINA`S...LIFTING NORTH NORTHEAST AND THE SECOND
BEING A STRONG COLD FRONT SURGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. THERE IS A STRONG PUSH BEHIND THE PLAINS
FRONT WITH SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWING VERY STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW
FROM NEBRASKA...NORTHWARD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS...WHERE FORECASTERS
NOTE GUSTS RANGING FROM 35 TO 45 KNOTS. A FEW LOCALES IN THESE
STATES ARE SHOWING BETWEEN 50 AND 55 KNOTS AND THIS HAS BEEN THE
CASE FOR SEVERAL HOURS. A VERY STRONG SYSTEM INDEED. GIVEN THE
TRENDS SEEN UPSTREAM AND LATEST FORECAST LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILES IN
FORECAST SOUNDING DATA...FORECASTERS HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON AREA-WIDE. WILL MAINTAIN THIS ADVISORY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AS THE STRONG THERMAL GRADIENT/COLD
ADVECTION PATTERN BETWEEN THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE KEEPS WINDS HIGHER
THERE. WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACT FOR MONDAY.

THE ENSEMBLES ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED WITH AN ANOMALOUSLY LOW BASE TO
THE LONGWAVE TROF SETTING UP FROM ACROSS THE NORTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF MISSISSIPPI MONDAY AFTERNOON.
HEIGHTS ALOFT LOWER THROUGH THE DAY...SOME 3 TO 4 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS BELOW THE MEAN FROM GEORGIA TO MISSISSIPPI BY THE CLOSE
OF MONDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE LOWERING 1000-850 MILLIBAR THICKNESS
VALUES MONDAY AFTERNOON...A NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE IS
ANTICIPATED...PROGRESSIVELY LOWERING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS IS FORECAST FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE DAY MONDAY...BUT THE DEPTH OF THE MOISTURE
ALOFT IS SHALLOW DENOTED BY CROSS-SECTION ANALYSES. THUS...ALTHOUGH
UPPER LEVEL STORM/DYNAMICS IS AN ANOMALY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY MEASURABLE RAIN GIVEN THE SHALLOW RH STRATA ALOFT.
/10

SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...CONTINUED WINDY
ALONG THE ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST AS GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT THE
TROPOSPHERIC FOLD STILL OVER THE AREA COURTESY OF THE POTENT UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH PROPAGATING OVER THE AREA. WINDS THOUGH MAY TAPER BACK
TO BREEZY IN OUR MORE PROTECTED INLAND WITH A MIXTURE OF SPOTTY WINDY
CONDITIONS IN MORE EXPOSED AREAS AND EVEN LIGHT WINDS MIXED IN WHERE
ENOUGH COOLING CAN OCCUR IN SHELTERED AREAS TO SET UP A SHALLOW
INVERSION. BUT IN GENERAL COLD AIR ADVECTION (CAA) CONTINUES
OVERNIGHT KEEPING LOWER AIRMASS WELL MIXED AND ALLOWING HIGHER WINDS
ALOFT TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. GFS HAS TEMPERATURES AT THE 850 MB
LEVEL BOTTOMING OUT AT BETWEEN -8 TO -10C ACROSS THE AREA. OVERNIGHT
LOWS THOUGH WON`T PLUMMET TOO FAR DUE TO THE EFFICIENT
MIXING...GENERALLY MID 20S TO NEAR 30 NORTHWEST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR
AND NEAR 30 TO MID 30S SOUTHEAST.

WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
DEPARTS THE AREA. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL PROBABLY TOP OFF IN THE 40S AND
PERHAPS LOW 50S CLOSER TO THE COAST. DRY...COOL WEATHER PERSISTS THEN
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH...A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR IS
PROGGED TO PUSH THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF AND GFS DIVERGE
SIGNIFICANTLY ON THE IMPACTS TO SENSIBLE WEATHER E.G., GFS FORECASTS
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN SOME LOCATIONS AS MUCH AS 6 TO 11 DEGREES COLDER
THAN THE ECMWF. THE CAA DOESN`T APPEAR THAT STRONG AT THIS TIME BUT
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LIGHT WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD PROVIDE
EFFICIENT COOLING SO TRENDED TEMPERATURES A LITTLE COOLER THAN THE
LAST FORECAST PACKAGE BUT NOT AS COOL AS THE GFS. /08

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...BY THURSDAY HEIGHTS START TO
RISE ALOFT AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS TO THE NORTHEAST...FLOW
ALOFT GENERALLY BECOMES ZONAL BUT WE REMAIN MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH MORE THAN THE UPSTREAM RIDGE. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE IN ADVANCE OF THE FRIDAY NIGHT FRONT COULD RESULT IN A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN THEN...BUT MORE LIKE A SPRINKLE. TEMPERATURE
SHOULD WARM INTO THE 60S FRIDAY...UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S SATURDAY AND
MAINLY 50S ON SUNDAY. WHILE LOWS WILL TREND UPWARD FROM THE MID 30S
TO LOW 40S FRIDAY MORNING TO 40S TO LOW 50S SATURDAY MORNING AND THEN
DOWNWARD INTO THE 30S AND LOW 40S ON SUNDAY MORNING. /08

MARINE...HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL MARINE CRAFT TO DEVELOP
MONDAY AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
MONDAY MORNING IS LIKELY TO BRING GALE CONDITIONS AND HIGH SEAS IN
ITS WAKE MONDAY AFTERNOON...CONTINUING INTO EARLY TUESDAY. GALE
WATCHES HAVE BEEN UPGRADED TO WARNINGS ON THIS PACKAGE. DUE TO THE
STRONG NORTHWEST FETCH...SEAS WILL BE HIGHEST MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. SEAS BUILDING TO 5 TO 8 FEET NEAR SHORE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON
THEN 7 TO 10 FEET MONDAY NIGHT. WELL OFFSHORE...SEAS BUILD TO 8 TO
10 FEET BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND 10 TO 13 FEET MONDAY NIGHT.
/10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR ALZ051>060-
     261>264.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR ALZ265-
     266.

FL...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR FLZ201-203-205.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR FLZ202-
     204-206.

MS...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR MSZ067-075-076-
     078-079.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST MONDAY
     FOR GMZ650-655-670-675.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TUESDAY TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
     GMZ630>635-650-655-670-675.

     GALE WARNING FROM NOON MONDAY TO 1 PM CST TUESDAY FOR GMZ630>635-
     650-655-670-675.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR GMZ630>635.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MOB





000
FXUS64 KMOB 080343 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
943 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.DISCUSSION...SEE UPDATED INFORMATION FOR LAND AREAS BELOW.

&&

.UPDATE...THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND ONLY MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS
TO TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS. MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT W/SW WINDS WILL OTHERWISE PERSIST TONIGHT.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AND RAP 500 MB ANALYSIS SHOWS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW IN THE VICINITY OF NORTHERN WI AND THE UPPER PENINSULA OF
MICHIGAN THIS EVENING. A STRONG 90-110 KT 500 MB JET WAS DIVING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES TO THE WEST OF THE TROUGH AXIS
WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS STATES AND APPROACHING THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. THE
COLD FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK TO QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION
MONDAY MORNING...WITH INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE
OF FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE MONDAY MORNING INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. A WIND
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS INLAND AREAS MONDAY AFTERNOON...
AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
FOR EXPECTED FREQUENT GUSTS AROUND OR IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH. /21

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 600 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
00Z ISSUANCE...A VFR FORECAST CONTINUES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY
MORNING...AND WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KNOTS
WITH A FEW GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS EXPECTED BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED LOWER CLOUD DECKS AROUND 4-5 KFT AGL ARE POSSIBLE
MONDAY. /21

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 426 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016/

NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH MONDAY/...FORECAST AREA IS POSITIONED
BETWEEN TWO WEATHER SYSTEMS. THE FIRST BEING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OFF THE COASTAL CAROLINA`S...LIFTING NORTH NORTHEAST AND THE SECOND
BEING A STRONG COLD FRONT SURGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. THERE IS A STRONG PUSH BEHIND THE PLAINS
FRONT WITH SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWING VERY STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW
FROM NEBRASKA...NORTHWARD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS...WHERE FORECASTERS
NOTE GUSTS RANGING FROM 35 TO 45 KNOTS. A FEW LOCALES IN THESE
STATES ARE SHOWING BETWEEN 50 AND 55 KNOTS AND THIS HAS BEEN THE
CASE FOR SEVERAL HOURS. A VERY STRONG SYSTEM INDEED. GIVEN THE
TRENDS SEEN UPSTREAM AND LATEST FORECAST LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILES IN
FORECAST SOUNDING DATA...FORECASTERS HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON AREA-WIDE. WILL MAINTAIN THIS ADVISORY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AS THE STRONG THERMAL GRADIENT/COLD
ADVECTION PATTERN BETWEEN THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE KEEPS WINDS HIGHER
THERE. WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACT FOR MONDAY.

THE ENSEMBLES ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED WITH AN ANOMALOUSLY LOW BASE TO
THE LONGWAVE TROF SETTING UP FROM ACROSS THE NORTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF MISSISSIPPI MONDAY AFTERNOON.
HEIGHTS ALOFT LOWER THROUGH THE DAY...SOME 3 TO 4 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS BELOW THE MEAN FROM GEORGIA TO MISSISSIPPI BY THE CLOSE
OF MONDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE LOWERING 1000-850 MILLIBAR THICKNESS
VALUES MONDAY AFTERNOON...A NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE IS
ANTICIPATED...PROGRESSIVELY LOWERING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS IS FORECAST FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE DAY MONDAY...BUT THE DEPTH OF THE MOISTURE
ALOFT IS SHALLOW DENOTED BY CROSS-SECTION ANALYSES. THUS...ALTHOUGH
UPPER LEVEL STORM/DYNAMICS IS AN ANOMALY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY MEASURABLE RAIN GIVEN THE SHALLOW RH STRATA ALOFT.
/10

SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...CONTINUED WINDY
ALONG THE ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST AS GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT THE
TROPOSPHERIC FOLD STILL OVER THE AREA COURTESY OF THE POTENT UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH PROPAGATING OVER THE AREA. WINDS THOUGH MAY TAPER BACK
TO BREEZY IN OUR MORE PROTECTED INLAND WITH A MIXTURE OF SPOTTY WINDY
CONDITIONS IN MORE EXPOSED AREAS AND EVEN LIGHT WINDS MIXED IN WHERE
ENOUGH COOLING CAN OCCUR IN SHELTERED AREAS TO SET UP A SHALLOW
INVERSION. BUT IN GENERAL COLD AIR ADVECTION (CAA) CONTINUES
OVERNIGHT KEEPING LOWER AIRMASS WELL MIXED AND ALLOWING HIGHER WINDS
ALOFT TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. GFS HAS TEMPERATURES AT THE 850 MB
LEVEL BOTTOMING OUT AT BETWEEN -8 TO -10C ACROSS THE AREA. OVERNIGHT
LOWS THOUGH WON`T PLUMMET TOO FAR DUE TO THE EFFICIENT
MIXING...GENERALLY MID 20S TO NEAR 30 NORTHWEST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR
AND NEAR 30 TO MID 30S SOUTHEAST.

WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
DEPARTS THE AREA. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL PROBABLY TOP OFF IN THE 40S AND
PERHAPS LOW 50S CLOSER TO THE COAST. DRY...COOL WEATHER PERSISTS THEN
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH...A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR IS
PROGGED TO PUSH THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF AND GFS DIVERGE
SIGNIFICANTLY ON THE IMPACTS TO SENSIBLE WEATHER E.G., GFS FORECASTS
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN SOME LOCATIONS AS MUCH AS 6 TO 11 DEGREES COLDER
THAN THE ECMWF. THE CAA DOESN`T APPEAR THAT STRONG AT THIS TIME BUT
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LIGHT WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD PROVIDE
EFFICIENT COOLING SO TRENDED TEMPERATURES A LITTLE COOLER THAN THE
LAST FORECAST PACKAGE BUT NOT AS COOL AS THE GFS. /08

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...BY THURSDAY HEIGHTS START TO
RISE ALOFT AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS TO THE NORTHEAST...FLOW
ALOFT GENERALLY BECOMES ZONAL BUT WE REMAIN MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH MORE THAN THE UPSTREAM RIDGE. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE IN ADVANCE OF THE FRIDAY NIGHT FRONT COULD RESULT IN A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN THEN...BUT MORE LIKE A SPRINKLE. TEMPERATURE
SHOULD WARM INTO THE 60S FRIDAY...UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S SATURDAY AND
MAINLY 50S ON SUNDAY. WHILE LOWS WILL TREND UPWARD FROM THE MID 30S
TO LOW 40S FRIDAY MORNING TO 40S TO LOW 50S SATURDAY MORNING AND THEN
DOWNWARD INTO THE 30S AND LOW 40S ON SUNDAY MORNING. /08

MARINE...HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL MARINE CRAFT TO DEVELOP
MONDAY AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
MONDAY MORNING IS LIKELY TO BRING GALE CONDITIONS AND HIGH SEAS IN
ITS WAKE MONDAY AFTERNOON...CONTINUING INTO EARLY TUESDAY. GALE
WATCHES HAVE BEEN UPGRADED TO WARNINGS ON THIS PACKAGE. DUE TO THE
STRONG NORTHWEST FETCH...SEAS WILL BE HIGHEST MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. SEAS BUILDING TO 5 TO 8 FEET NEAR SHORE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON
THEN 7 TO 10 FEET MONDAY NIGHT. WELL OFFSHORE...SEAS BUILD TO 8 TO
10 FEET BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND 10 TO 13 FEET MONDAY NIGHT.
/10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR ALZ051>060-
     261>264.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR ALZ265-
     266.

FL...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR FLZ201-203-205.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR FLZ202-
     204-206.

MS...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR MSZ067-075-076-
     078-079.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST MONDAY
     FOR GMZ650-655-670-675.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TUESDAY TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
     GMZ630>635-650-655-670-675.

     GALE WARNING FROM NOON MONDAY TO 1 PM CST TUESDAY FOR GMZ630>635-
     650-655-670-675.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR GMZ630>635.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MOB





000
FXUS64 KMOB 080000
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
600 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z ISSUANCE...A VFR FORECAST CONTINUES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY
MORNING...AND WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KNOTS
WITH A FEW GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS EXPECTED BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED LOWER CLOUD DECKS AROUND 4-5 KFT AGL ARE POSSIBLE
MONDAY. /21

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 426 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016/

NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH MONDAY/...FORECAST AREA IS POSITIONED
BETWEEN TWO WEATHER SYSTEMS. THE FIRST BEING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OFF THE COASTAL CAROLINA`S...LIFTING NORTH NORTHEAST AND THE SECOND
BEING A STRONG COLD FRONT SURGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. THERE IS A STRONG PUSH BEHIND THE PLAINS
FRONT WITH SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWING VERY STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW
FROM NEBRASKA...NORTHWARD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS...WHERE FORECASTERS
NOTE GUSTS RANGING FROM 35 TO 45 KNOTS. A FEW LOCALES IN THESE
STATES ARE SHOWING BETWEEN 50 AND 55 KNOTS AND THIS HAS BEEN THE
CASE FOR SEVERAL HOURS. A VERY STRONG SYSTEM INDEED. GIVEN THE
TRENDS SEEN UPSTREAM AND LATEST FORECAST LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILES IN
FORECAST SOUNDING DATA...FORECASTERS HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON AREA-WIDE. WILL MAINTAIN THIS ADVISORY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AS THE STRONG THERMAL GRADIENT/COLD
ADVECTION PATTERN BETWEEN THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE KEEPS WINDS HIGHER
THERE. WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACT FOR MONDAY.

THE ENSEMBLES ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED WITH AN ANOMALOUSLY LOW BASE TO
THE LONGWAVE TROF SETTING UP FROM ACROSS THE NORTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF MISSISSIPPI MONDAY AFTERNOON.
HEIGHTS ALOFT LOWER THROUGH THE DAY...SOME 3 TO 4 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS BELOW THE MEAN FROM GEORGIA TO MISSISSIPPI BY THE CLOSE
OF MONDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE LOWERING 1000-850 MILLIBAR THICKNESS
VALUES MONDAY AFTERNOON...A NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE IS
ANTICIPATED...PROGRESSIVELY LOWERING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS IS FORECAST FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE DAY MONDAY...BUT THE DEPTH OF THE MOISTURE
ALOFT IS SHALLOW DENOTED BY CROSS-SECTION ANALYSES. THUS...ALTHOUGH
UPPER LEVEL STORM/DYNAMICS IS AN ANOMALY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY MEASURABLE RAIN GIVEN THE SHALLOW RH STRATA ALOFT.
/10

SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...CONTINUED WINDY
ALONG THE ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST AS GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT THE
TROPOSPHERIC FOLD STILL OVER THE AREA COURTESY OF THE POTENT UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH PROPAGATING OVER THE AREA. WINDS THOUGH MAY TAPER BACK
TO BREEZY IN OUR MORE PROTECTED INLAND WITH A MIXTURE OF SPOTTY WINDY
CONDITIONS IN MORE EXPOSED AREAS AND EVEN LIGHT WINDS MIXED IN WHERE
ENOUGH COOLING CAN OCCUR IN SHELTERED AREAS TO SET UP A SHALLOW
INVERSION. BUT IN GENERAL COLD AIR ADVECTION (CAA) CONTINUES
OVERNIGHT KEEPING LOWER AIRMASS WELL MIXED AND ALLOWING HIGHER WINDS
ALOFT TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. GFS HAS TEMPERATURES AT THE 850 MB
LEVEL BOTTOMING OUT AT BETWEEN -8 TO -10C ACROSS THE AREA. OVERNIGHT
LOWS THOUGH WON`T PLUMMET TOO FAR DUE TO THE EFFICIENT
MIXING...GENERALLY MID 20S TO NEAR 30 NORTHWEST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR
AND NEAR 30 TO MID 30S SOUTHEAST.

WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
DEPARTS THE AREA. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL PROBABLY TOP OFF IN THE 40S AND
PERHAPS LOW 50S CLOSER TO THE COAST. DRY...COOL WEATHER PERSISTS THEN
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH...A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR IS
PROGGED TO PUSH THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF AND GFS DIVERGE
SIGNIFICANTLY ON THE IMPACTS TO SENSIBLE WEATHER E.G., GFS FORECASTS
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN SOME LOCATIONS AS MUCH AS 6 TO 11 DEGREES COLDER
THAN THE ECMWF. THE CAA DOESN`T APPEAR THAT STRONG AT THIS TIME BUT
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LIGHT WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD PROVIDE
EFFICIENT COOLING SO TRENDED TEMPERATURES A LITTLE COOLER THAN THE
LAST FORECAST PACKAGE BUT NOT AS COOL AS THE GFS. /08

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...BY THURSDAY HEIGHTS START TO
RISE ALOFT AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS TO THE NORTHEAST...FLOW
ALOFT GENERALLY BECOMES ZONAL BUT WE REMAIN MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH MORE THAN THE UPSTREAM RIDGE. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE IN ADVANCE OF THE FRIDAY NIGHT FRONT COULD RESULT IN A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN THEN...BUT MORE LIKE A SPRINKLE. TEMPERATURE
SHOULD WARM INTO THE 60S FRIDAY...UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S SATURDAY AND
MAINLY 50S ON SUNDAY. WHILE LOWS WILL TREND UPWARD FROM THE MID 30S
TO LOW 40S FRIDAY MORNING TO 40S TO LOW 50S SATURDAY MORNING AND THEN
DOWNWARD INTO THE 30S AND LOW 40S ON SUNDAY MORNING. /08

MARINE...HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL MARINE CRAFT TO DEVELOP
MONDAY AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
MONDAY MORNING IS LIKELY TO BRING GALE CONDITIONS AND HIGH SEAS IN
ITS WAKE MONDAY AFTERNOON...CONTINUING INTO EARLY TUESDAY. GALE
WATCHES HAVE BEEN UPGRADED TO WARNINGS ON THIS PACKAGE. DUE TO THE
STRONG NORTHWEST FETCH...SEAS WILL BE HIGHEST MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. SEAS BUILDING TO 5 TO 8 FEET NEAR SHORE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON
THEN 7 TO 10 FEET MONDAY NIGHT. WELL OFFSHORE...SEAS BUILD TO 8 TO
10 FEET BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND 10 TO 13 FEET MONDAY NIGHT.
/10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR ALZ051>060-
     261>264.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR ALZ265-
     266.

FL...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR FLZ201-203-205.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR FLZ202-
     204-206.

MS...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR MSZ067-075-076-
     078-079.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST MONDAY
     FOR GMZ650-655-670-675.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TUESDAY TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
     GMZ630>635-650-655-670-675.

     GALE WARNING FROM NOON MONDAY TO 1 PM CST TUESDAY FOR GMZ630>635-
     650-655-670-675.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR GMZ630>635.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MOB




000
FXUS64 KMOB 080000
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
600 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z ISSUANCE...A VFR FORECAST CONTINUES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY
MORNING...AND WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KNOTS
WITH A FEW GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS EXPECTED BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED LOWER CLOUD DECKS AROUND 4-5 KFT AGL ARE POSSIBLE
MONDAY. /21

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 426 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016/

NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH MONDAY/...FORECAST AREA IS POSITIONED
BETWEEN TWO WEATHER SYSTEMS. THE FIRST BEING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OFF THE COASTAL CAROLINA`S...LIFTING NORTH NORTHEAST AND THE SECOND
BEING A STRONG COLD FRONT SURGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. THERE IS A STRONG PUSH BEHIND THE PLAINS
FRONT WITH SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWING VERY STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW
FROM NEBRASKA...NORTHWARD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS...WHERE FORECASTERS
NOTE GUSTS RANGING FROM 35 TO 45 KNOTS. A FEW LOCALES IN THESE
STATES ARE SHOWING BETWEEN 50 AND 55 KNOTS AND THIS HAS BEEN THE
CASE FOR SEVERAL HOURS. A VERY STRONG SYSTEM INDEED. GIVEN THE
TRENDS SEEN UPSTREAM AND LATEST FORECAST LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILES IN
FORECAST SOUNDING DATA...FORECASTERS HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON AREA-WIDE. WILL MAINTAIN THIS ADVISORY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AS THE STRONG THERMAL GRADIENT/COLD
ADVECTION PATTERN BETWEEN THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE KEEPS WINDS HIGHER
THERE. WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACT FOR MONDAY.

THE ENSEMBLES ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED WITH AN ANOMALOUSLY LOW BASE TO
THE LONGWAVE TROF SETTING UP FROM ACROSS THE NORTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF MISSISSIPPI MONDAY AFTERNOON.
HEIGHTS ALOFT LOWER THROUGH THE DAY...SOME 3 TO 4 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS BELOW THE MEAN FROM GEORGIA TO MISSISSIPPI BY THE CLOSE
OF MONDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE LOWERING 1000-850 MILLIBAR THICKNESS
VALUES MONDAY AFTERNOON...A NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE IS
ANTICIPATED...PROGRESSIVELY LOWERING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS IS FORECAST FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE DAY MONDAY...BUT THE DEPTH OF THE MOISTURE
ALOFT IS SHALLOW DENOTED BY CROSS-SECTION ANALYSES. THUS...ALTHOUGH
UPPER LEVEL STORM/DYNAMICS IS AN ANOMALY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY MEASURABLE RAIN GIVEN THE SHALLOW RH STRATA ALOFT.
/10

SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...CONTINUED WINDY
ALONG THE ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST AS GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT THE
TROPOSPHERIC FOLD STILL OVER THE AREA COURTESY OF THE POTENT UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH PROPAGATING OVER THE AREA. WINDS THOUGH MAY TAPER BACK
TO BREEZY IN OUR MORE PROTECTED INLAND WITH A MIXTURE OF SPOTTY WINDY
CONDITIONS IN MORE EXPOSED AREAS AND EVEN LIGHT WINDS MIXED IN WHERE
ENOUGH COOLING CAN OCCUR IN SHELTERED AREAS TO SET UP A SHALLOW
INVERSION. BUT IN GENERAL COLD AIR ADVECTION (CAA) CONTINUES
OVERNIGHT KEEPING LOWER AIRMASS WELL MIXED AND ALLOWING HIGHER WINDS
ALOFT TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. GFS HAS TEMPERATURES AT THE 850 MB
LEVEL BOTTOMING OUT AT BETWEEN -8 TO -10C ACROSS THE AREA. OVERNIGHT
LOWS THOUGH WON`T PLUMMET TOO FAR DUE TO THE EFFICIENT
MIXING...GENERALLY MID 20S TO NEAR 30 NORTHWEST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR
AND NEAR 30 TO MID 30S SOUTHEAST.

WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
DEPARTS THE AREA. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL PROBABLY TOP OFF IN THE 40S AND
PERHAPS LOW 50S CLOSER TO THE COAST. DRY...COOL WEATHER PERSISTS THEN
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH...A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR IS
PROGGED TO PUSH THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF AND GFS DIVERGE
SIGNIFICANTLY ON THE IMPACTS TO SENSIBLE WEATHER E.G., GFS FORECASTS
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN SOME LOCATIONS AS MUCH AS 6 TO 11 DEGREES COLDER
THAN THE ECMWF. THE CAA DOESN`T APPEAR THAT STRONG AT THIS TIME BUT
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LIGHT WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD PROVIDE
EFFICIENT COOLING SO TRENDED TEMPERATURES A LITTLE COOLER THAN THE
LAST FORECAST PACKAGE BUT NOT AS COOL AS THE GFS. /08

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...BY THURSDAY HEIGHTS START TO
RISE ALOFT AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS TO THE NORTHEAST...FLOW
ALOFT GENERALLY BECOMES ZONAL BUT WE REMAIN MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH MORE THAN THE UPSTREAM RIDGE. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE IN ADVANCE OF THE FRIDAY NIGHT FRONT COULD RESULT IN A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN THEN...BUT MORE LIKE A SPRINKLE. TEMPERATURE
SHOULD WARM INTO THE 60S FRIDAY...UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S SATURDAY AND
MAINLY 50S ON SUNDAY. WHILE LOWS WILL TREND UPWARD FROM THE MID 30S
TO LOW 40S FRIDAY MORNING TO 40S TO LOW 50S SATURDAY MORNING AND THEN
DOWNWARD INTO THE 30S AND LOW 40S ON SUNDAY MORNING. /08

MARINE...HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL MARINE CRAFT TO DEVELOP
MONDAY AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
MONDAY MORNING IS LIKELY TO BRING GALE CONDITIONS AND HIGH SEAS IN
ITS WAKE MONDAY AFTERNOON...CONTINUING INTO EARLY TUESDAY. GALE
WATCHES HAVE BEEN UPGRADED TO WARNINGS ON THIS PACKAGE. DUE TO THE
STRONG NORTHWEST FETCH...SEAS WILL BE HIGHEST MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. SEAS BUILDING TO 5 TO 8 FEET NEAR SHORE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON
THEN 7 TO 10 FEET MONDAY NIGHT. WELL OFFSHORE...SEAS BUILD TO 8 TO
10 FEET BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND 10 TO 13 FEET MONDAY NIGHT.
/10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR ALZ051>060-
     261>264.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR ALZ265-
     266.

FL...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR FLZ201-203-205.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR FLZ202-
     204-206.

MS...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR MSZ067-075-076-
     078-079.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST MONDAY
     FOR GMZ650-655-670-675.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TUESDAY TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
     GMZ630>635-650-655-670-675.

     GALE WARNING FROM NOON MONDAY TO 1 PM CST TUESDAY FOR GMZ630>635-
     650-655-670-675.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR GMZ630>635.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MOB





000
FXUS64 KMOB 072226
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
426 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH MONDAY/...FORECAST AREA IS POSITIONED
BETWEEN TWO WEATHER SYSTEMS. THE FIRST BEING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OFF THE COASTAL CAROLINA`S...LIFTING NORTH NORTHEAST AND THE SECOND
BEING A STRONG COLD FRONT SURGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. THERE IS A STRONG PUSH BEHIND THE PLAINS
FRONT WITH SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWING VERY STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW
FROM NEBRASKA...NORTHWARD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS...WHERE FORECASTERS
NOTE GUSTS RANGING FROM 35 TO 45 KNOTS. A FEW LOCALES IN THESE
STATES ARE SHOWING BETWEEN 50 AND 55 KNOTS AND THIS HAS BEEN THE
CASE FOR SEVERAL HOURS. A VERY STRONG SYSTEM INDEED. GIVEN THE
TRENDS SEEN UPSTREAM AND LATEST FORECAST LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILES IN
FORECAST SOUNDING DATA...FORECASTERS HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON AREA-WIDE. WILL MAINTAIN THIS ADVISORY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AS THE STRONG THERMAL GRADIENT/COLD
ADVECTION PATTERN BETWEEN THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE KEEPS WINDS HIGHER
THERE. WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACT FOR MONDAY.

THE ENSEMBLES ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED WITH AN ANOMALOUSLY LOW BASE TO
THE LONGWAVE TROF SETTING UP FROM ACROSS THE NORTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF MISSISSIPPI MONDAY AFTERNOON.
HEIGHTS ALOFT LOWER THROUGH THE DAY...SOME 3 TO 4 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS BELOW THE MEAN FROM GEORGIA TO MISSISSIPPI BY THE CLOSE
OF MONDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE LOWERING 1000-850 MILLIBAR THICKNESS
VALUES MONDAY AFTERNOON...A NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE IS
ANTICIPATED...PROGRESSIVELY LOWERING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS IS FORECAST FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE DAY MONDAY...BUT THE DEPTH OF THE MOISTURE
ALOFT IS SHALLOW DENOTED BY CROSS-SECTION ANALYSES. THUS...ALTHOUGH
UPPER LEVEL STORM/DYNAMICS IS AN ANOMALY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY MEASURABLE RAIN GIVEN THE SHALLOW RH STRATA ALOFT.
/10



.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...CONTINUED WINDY
ALONG THE ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST AS GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT THE
TROPOSPHERIC FOLD STILL OVER THE AREA COURTESY OF THE POTENT UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH PROPAGATING OVER THE AREA. WINDS THOUGH MAY TAPER BACK
TO BREEZY IN OUR MORE PROTECTED INLAND WITH A MIXTURE OF SPOTTY WINDY
CONDITIONS IN MORE EXPOSED AREAS AND EVEN LIGHT WINDS MIXED IN WHERE
ENOUGH COOLING CAN OCCUR IN SHELTERED AREAS TO SET UP A SHALLOW
INVERSION. BUT IN GENERAL COLD AIR ADVECTION (CAA) CONTINUES
OVERNIGHT KEEPING LOWER AIRMASS WELL MIXED AND ALLOWING HIGHER WINDS
ALOFT TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. GFS HAS TEMPERATURES AT THE 850 MB
LEVEL BOTTOMING OUT AT BETWEEN -8 TO -10C ACROSS THE AREA. OVERNIGHT
LOWS THOUGH WON`T PLUMMET TOO FAR DUE TO THE EFFICIENT
MIXING...GENERALLY MID 20S TO NEAR 30 NORTHWEST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR
AND NEAR 30 TO MID 30S SOUTHEAST.

WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
DEPARTS THE AREA. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL PROBABLY TOP OFF IN THE 40S AND
PERHAPS LOW 50S CLOSER TO THE COAST. DRY...COOL WEATHER PERSISTS THEN
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH...A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR IS
PROGGED TO PUSH THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF AND GFS DIVERGE
SIGNIFICANTLY ON THE IMPACTS TO SENSIBLE WEATHER E.G., GFS FORECASTS
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN SOME LOCATIONS AS MUCH AS 6 TO 11 DEGREES COLDER
THAN THE ECMWF. THE CAA DOESN`T APPEAR THAT STRONG AT THIS TIME BUT
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LIGHT WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD PROVIDE
EFFICIENT COOLING SO TRENDED TEMPERATURES A LITTLE COOLER THAN THE
LAST FORECAST PACKAGE BUT NOT AS COOL AS THE GFS. /08

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...BY THURSDAY HEIGHTS START TO
RISE ALOFT AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS TO THE NORTHEAST...FLOW
ALOFT GENERALLY BECOMES ZONAL BUT WE REMAIN MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH MORE THAN THE UPSTREAM RIDGE. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE IN ADVANCE OF THE FRIDAY NIGHT FRONT COULD RESULT IN A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN THEN...BUT MORE LIKE A SPRINKLE. TEMPERATURE
SHOULD WARM INTO THE 60S FRIDAY...UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S SATURDAY AND
MAINLY 50S ON SUNDAY. WHILE LOWS WILL TREND UPWARD FROM THE MID 30S
TO LOW 40S FRIDAY MORNING TO 40S TO LOW 50S SATURDAY MORNING AND THEN
DOWNWARD INTO THE 30S AND LOW 40S ON SUNDAY MORNING. /08

&&

.MARINE...HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL MARINE CRAFT TO DEVELOP
MONDAY AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
MONDAY MORNING IS LIKELY TO BRING GALE CONDITIONS AND HIGH SEAS IN
ITS WAKE MONDAY AFTERNOON...CONTINUING INTO EARLY TUESDAY. GALE
WATCHES HAVE BEEN UPGRADED TO WARNINGS ON THIS PACKAGE. DUE TO THE
STRONG NORTHWEST FETCH...SEAS WILL BE HIGHEST MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. SEAS BUILDING TO 5 TO 8 FEET NEAR SHORE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON
THEN 7 TO 10 FEET MONDAY NIGHT. WELL OFFSHORE...SEAS BUILD TO 8 TO
10 FEET BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND 10 TO 13 FEET MONDAY NIGHT.
/10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      38  56  30  49 /   0   0   0   0
PENSACOLA   41  57  33  48 /   0  10   0   0
DESTIN      45  58  36  50 /   0  10   0  10
EVERGREEN   35  55  29  45 /   0  10  10   0
WAYNESBORO  35  53  25  47 /   0  10   0   0
CAMDEN      37  53  29  44 /   0  10  10   0
CRESTVIEW   36  58  29  48 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR ALZ051>060-
     261>264.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR ALZ265-
     266.

FL...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR FLZ201-203-205.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR FLZ202-
     204-206.

MS...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR MSZ067-075-076-
     078-079.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST MONDAY
     FOR GMZ650-655-670-675.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TUESDAY TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
     GMZ630>635-650-655-670-675.

     GALE WARNING FROM NOON MONDAY TO 1 PM CST TUESDAY FOR GMZ630>635-
     650-655-670-675.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR GMZ630>635.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MOB





000
FXUS64 KMOB 071749 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1149 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.DISCUSSION...SEE UPDATED INFORMATION BELOW.

&&

.UPDATE...FORECAST AREA IS POSITIONED BETWEEN TWO WEATHER SYSTEMS.
THE FIRST BEING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST...LIFTING NORTH NORTHEAST AND THE SECOND BEING A STRONG COLD
FRONT SURGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. THERE IS
A STRONG PUSH BEHIND THE PLAINS FRONT WITH SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
SHOWING VERY STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW FROM NEBRASKA...NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE DAKOTAS...WHERE FORECASTERS NOTE GUSTS RANGING FROM 35 TO 45
KNOTS. A FEW LOCALES IN THESE STATES ARE SHOWING BETWEEN 50 AND 55
KNOTS. A VERY STRONG SYSTEM INDEED. GIVEN THE TRENDS SEEN UPSTREAM
AND LATEST FORECAST LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILES IN FORECAST SOUNDING
DATA...FORECASTERS ARE STRONGLY CONSIDERING ISSUANCE OF A WIND
ADVISORY ON MONDAY...ALTHOUGH BEGINNING AND ENDING TIMES ARE NOT YET
DEFINED.

THE ENSEMBLES ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED WITH AN ANOMALOUSLY LOW BASE TO THE
LONGWAVE TROF SETTING UP FROM ACROSS THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULATO
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF MISSISSIPPI MONDAY AFTERNOON. HEIGHTS ALOFT
LOWER THROUGH THE DAY...SOME 3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW THE
MEAN FROM GEORGIA TO MISSISSIPPI BY THE CLOSE OF MONDAY AFTERNOON.
GIVEN THE LOWERING 1000-850 MILLIBAR THICKNESS VALUES MONDAY
AFTERNOON...A NON- DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE IS
ANTICIPATED...PROGRESSIVELY LOWERING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. /10

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE IN THE NEAR TERM. LIGHT
NORTHERLY FLOW BECOMES WESTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE
AXIS MOVES EAST ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI SOUND. /10

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 517 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE...VFR CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST.

/16

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 457 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016/

NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...PRIMARY FORECAST PROBLEM THE
FIRST TWO PERIODS OF THE FORECAST IS TEMPERATURES. WITH NORTHERLY
FLOW TODAY MAINTAINING THE COOL AND DRY AIRMASS OVER THE AREA...WE
ARE EXPECTING TEMPS TO REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY
IN THE UPPER 50S TO ROUND 60. TONIGHT...A STRONG UPPER SYSTEM MOVES
SOUTH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY...PUSHING A REINFORCING FRONT TOWARDS THE FCST AREA AND
ULTIMATELY PARTIALLY ACROSS THE FCST AREA. THIS FRONT WILL BRING A
SWITCH IN THE WINDS TO MORE WESTERLY AHEAD OF ITS PASSAGE TONIGHT...
KEEPING TEMPS FROM FALLING AS LOW AS PREVIOUS NIGHTS. OVERNIGHT LOWS
STILL GENERALLY BELOW SEASONAL...WITH TEMPS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MID
30S TO AROUND 40 BY SUNRISE MONDAY. 16/SAM

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...DEEPENING UPPER TROF
OVER EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY WILL DRIVE A REINFORCING COLD
FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE FCST AREA ON MONDAY...BUT PRECIPITABLE WATER
WILL BE LESS THAN 0.30 INCHES FOR THE MOST PART AND NO PCPN IS
EXPECTED. WINDS WILL RATHER GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY...WILL
MONITOR NEED FOR A WIND ADVSY. DEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS UPPER TROF PERSISTS BUT
GRADUALLY WEAKENS. MONDAY`S HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S...BUT
COOLING TO THE MID 40S INLAND TO LOWER 50S COASTAL ON TUESDAY. COLDER
AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 20S WELL INLAND TO THE MID 30S AT THE COAST. SLIGHTLY
WARMER BY A FEW DEGREES TUESDAY NIGHT. 12/DS

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...NOT MUCH CHANGE WEDNESDAY...
BUT BY THURSDAY THE UPPER TROF MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST AS A SHORTWAVE
CUTS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. A SLIGHTLY WEAKER AND BROADER UPPER
TROF THEN CONTINUES THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. AT THE SFC...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING ONE WEAK
AND RAINFREE SFC FRONT ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND ANOTHER
STRONGER ONE FRIDAY NIGHT. FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRIDAY NIGHT FRONT COULD RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN THEN...BUT THE OVERALL AIRMASS WILL STILL BE VERY DRY. GRADUALLY
WARMING DAYTIME HIGH TEMPS AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD AND RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS...WITH HIGHS
RISING FROM THE 50S WELL INTO THE 60S. COLD WEDNESDAY NIGHT TEMPS
RANGING FROM UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER
30S NORTH TO MID 40S COASTAL...THEN A FEW DEGREES WARMER FRIDAY
NIGHT. 12/DS

MARINE...MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW OVER AREA COASTAL WATERS WILL EASE
TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FROM OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY SOUTH OVER THE OPEN GULF OF MEXICO. A STRONG FRONT WILL
BE PUSHED ACROSS THE MARINE AREA LATER TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
BRINGING STRONG TO VERY STRONG WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND
BUILDING SEAS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS WILL EASE SOME LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BUT ANOTHER WEAKER FRONT WILL MOVE OVER AREA
COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY...KEEPING WINDS STRONG THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WINDS WILL SETTLE THURSDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PASSES
NORTH OF THE AREA. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE
TIME ALL THE WAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A
BRIEF PERIOD BELOW SCA TODAY. GALE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR
POSSIBLE UPGRADE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. 16/SAM

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     GMZ630>635-650-655-670-675.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST MONDAY
     FOR GMZ650-655-670-675.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TUESDAY TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
     GMZ630>635-650-655-670-675.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR GMZ630>635.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MOB





000
FXUS64 KMOB 071749 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1149 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.DISCUSSION...SEE UPDATED INFORMATION BELOW.

&&

.UPDATE...FORECAST AREA IS POSITIONED BETWEEN TWO WEATHER SYSTEMS.
THE FIRST BEING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST...LIFTING NORTH NORTHEAST AND THE SECOND BEING A STRONG COLD
FRONT SURGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. THERE IS
A STRONG PUSH BEHIND THE PLAINS FRONT WITH SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
SHOWING VERY STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW FROM NEBRASKA...NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE DAKOTAS...WHERE FORECASTERS NOTE GUSTS RANGING FROM 35 TO 45
KNOTS. A FEW LOCALES IN THESE STATES ARE SHOWING BETWEEN 50 AND 55
KNOTS. A VERY STRONG SYSTEM INDEED. GIVEN THE TRENDS SEEN UPSTREAM
AND LATEST FORECAST LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILES IN FORECAST SOUNDING
DATA...FORECASTERS ARE STRONGLY CONSIDERING ISSUANCE OF A WIND
ADVISORY ON MONDAY...ALTHOUGH BEGINNING AND ENDING TIMES ARE NOT YET
DEFINED.

THE ENSEMBLES ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED WITH AN ANOMALOUSLY LOW BASE TO THE
LONGWAVE TROF SETTING UP FROM ACROSS THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULATO
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF MISSISSIPPI MONDAY AFTERNOON. HEIGHTS ALOFT
LOWER THROUGH THE DAY...SOME 3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW THE
MEAN FROM GEORGIA TO MISSISSIPPI BY THE CLOSE OF MONDAY AFTERNOON.
GIVEN THE LOWERING 1000-850 MILLIBAR THICKNESS VALUES MONDAY
AFTERNOON...A NON- DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE IS
ANTICIPATED...PROGRESSIVELY LOWERING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. /10

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE IN THE NEAR TERM. LIGHT
NORTHERLY FLOW BECOMES WESTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE
AXIS MOVES EAST ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI SOUND. /10

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 517 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE...VFR CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST.

/16

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 457 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016/

NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...PRIMARY FORECAST PROBLEM THE
FIRST TWO PERIODS OF THE FORECAST IS TEMPERATURES. WITH NORTHERLY
FLOW TODAY MAINTAINING THE COOL AND DRY AIRMASS OVER THE AREA...WE
ARE EXPECTING TEMPS TO REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY
IN THE UPPER 50S TO ROUND 60. TONIGHT...A STRONG UPPER SYSTEM MOVES
SOUTH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY...PUSHING A REINFORCING FRONT TOWARDS THE FCST AREA AND
ULTIMATELY PARTIALLY ACROSS THE FCST AREA. THIS FRONT WILL BRING A
SWITCH IN THE WINDS TO MORE WESTERLY AHEAD OF ITS PASSAGE TONIGHT...
KEEPING TEMPS FROM FALLING AS LOW AS PREVIOUS NIGHTS. OVERNIGHT LOWS
STILL GENERALLY BELOW SEASONAL...WITH TEMPS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MID
30S TO AROUND 40 BY SUNRISE MONDAY. 16/SAM

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...DEEPENING UPPER TROF
OVER EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY WILL DRIVE A REINFORCING COLD
FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE FCST AREA ON MONDAY...BUT PRECIPITABLE WATER
WILL BE LESS THAN 0.30 INCHES FOR THE MOST PART AND NO PCPN IS
EXPECTED. WINDS WILL RATHER GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY...WILL
MONITOR NEED FOR A WIND ADVSY. DEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS UPPER TROF PERSISTS BUT
GRADUALLY WEAKENS. MONDAY`S HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S...BUT
COOLING TO THE MID 40S INLAND TO LOWER 50S COASTAL ON TUESDAY. COLDER
AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 20S WELL INLAND TO THE MID 30S AT THE COAST. SLIGHTLY
WARMER BY A FEW DEGREES TUESDAY NIGHT. 12/DS

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...NOT MUCH CHANGE WEDNESDAY...
BUT BY THURSDAY THE UPPER TROF MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST AS A SHORTWAVE
CUTS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. A SLIGHTLY WEAKER AND BROADER UPPER
TROF THEN CONTINUES THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. AT THE SFC...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING ONE WEAK
AND RAINFREE SFC FRONT ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND ANOTHER
STRONGER ONE FRIDAY NIGHT. FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRIDAY NIGHT FRONT COULD RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN THEN...BUT THE OVERALL AIRMASS WILL STILL BE VERY DRY. GRADUALLY
WARMING DAYTIME HIGH TEMPS AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD AND RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS...WITH HIGHS
RISING FROM THE 50S WELL INTO THE 60S. COLD WEDNESDAY NIGHT TEMPS
RANGING FROM UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER
30S NORTH TO MID 40S COASTAL...THEN A FEW DEGREES WARMER FRIDAY
NIGHT. 12/DS

MARINE...MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW OVER AREA COASTAL WATERS WILL EASE
TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FROM OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY SOUTH OVER THE OPEN GULF OF MEXICO. A STRONG FRONT WILL
BE PUSHED ACROSS THE MARINE AREA LATER TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
BRINGING STRONG TO VERY STRONG WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND
BUILDING SEAS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS WILL EASE SOME LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BUT ANOTHER WEAKER FRONT WILL MOVE OVER AREA
COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY...KEEPING WINDS STRONG THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WINDS WILL SETTLE THURSDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PASSES
NORTH OF THE AREA. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE
TIME ALL THE WAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A
BRIEF PERIOD BELOW SCA TODAY. GALE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR
POSSIBLE UPGRADE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. 16/SAM

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     GMZ630>635-650-655-670-675.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST MONDAY
     FOR GMZ650-655-670-675.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TUESDAY TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
     GMZ630>635-650-655-670-675.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR GMZ630>635.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MOB




000
FXUS64 KMOB 071749 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1149 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.DISCUSSION...SEE UPDATED INFORMATION BELOW.

&&

.UPDATE...FORECAST AREA IS POSITIONED BETWEEN TWO WEATHER SYSTEMS.
THE FIRST BEING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST...LIFTING NORTH NORTHEAST AND THE SECOND BEING A STRONG COLD
FRONT SURGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. THERE IS
A STRONG PUSH BEHIND THE PLAINS FRONT WITH SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
SHOWING VERY STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW FROM NEBRASKA...NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE DAKOTAS...WHERE FORECASTERS NOTE GUSTS RANGING FROM 35 TO 45
KNOTS. A FEW LOCALES IN THESE STATES ARE SHOWING BETWEEN 50 AND 55
KNOTS. A VERY STRONG SYSTEM INDEED. GIVEN THE TRENDS SEEN UPSTREAM
AND LATEST FORECAST LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILES IN FORECAST SOUNDING
DATA...FORECASTERS ARE STRONGLY CONSIDERING ISSUANCE OF A WIND
ADVISORY ON MONDAY...ALTHOUGH BEGINNING AND ENDING TIMES ARE NOT YET
DEFINED.

THE ENSEMBLES ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED WITH AN ANOMALOUSLY LOW BASE TO THE
LONGWAVE TROF SETTING UP FROM ACROSS THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULATO
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF MISSISSIPPI MONDAY AFTERNOON. HEIGHTS ALOFT
LOWER THROUGH THE DAY...SOME 3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW THE
MEAN FROM GEORGIA TO MISSISSIPPI BY THE CLOSE OF MONDAY AFTERNOON.
GIVEN THE LOWERING 1000-850 MILLIBAR THICKNESS VALUES MONDAY
AFTERNOON...A NON- DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE IS
ANTICIPATED...PROGRESSIVELY LOWERING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. /10

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE IN THE NEAR TERM. LIGHT
NORTHERLY FLOW BECOMES WESTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE
AXIS MOVES EAST ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI SOUND. /10

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 517 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE...VFR CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST.

/16

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 457 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016/

NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...PRIMARY FORECAST PROBLEM THE
FIRST TWO PERIODS OF THE FORECAST IS TEMPERATURES. WITH NORTHERLY
FLOW TODAY MAINTAINING THE COOL AND DRY AIRMASS OVER THE AREA...WE
ARE EXPECTING TEMPS TO REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY
IN THE UPPER 50S TO ROUND 60. TONIGHT...A STRONG UPPER SYSTEM MOVES
SOUTH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY...PUSHING A REINFORCING FRONT TOWARDS THE FCST AREA AND
ULTIMATELY PARTIALLY ACROSS THE FCST AREA. THIS FRONT WILL BRING A
SWITCH IN THE WINDS TO MORE WESTERLY AHEAD OF ITS PASSAGE TONIGHT...
KEEPING TEMPS FROM FALLING AS LOW AS PREVIOUS NIGHTS. OVERNIGHT LOWS
STILL GENERALLY BELOW SEASONAL...WITH TEMPS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MID
30S TO AROUND 40 BY SUNRISE MONDAY. 16/SAM

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...DEEPENING UPPER TROF
OVER EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY WILL DRIVE A REINFORCING COLD
FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE FCST AREA ON MONDAY...BUT PRECIPITABLE WATER
WILL BE LESS THAN 0.30 INCHES FOR THE MOST PART AND NO PCPN IS
EXPECTED. WINDS WILL RATHER GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY...WILL
MONITOR NEED FOR A WIND ADVSY. DEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS UPPER TROF PERSISTS BUT
GRADUALLY WEAKENS. MONDAY`S HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S...BUT
COOLING TO THE MID 40S INLAND TO LOWER 50S COASTAL ON TUESDAY. COLDER
AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 20S WELL INLAND TO THE MID 30S AT THE COAST. SLIGHTLY
WARMER BY A FEW DEGREES TUESDAY NIGHT. 12/DS

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...NOT MUCH CHANGE WEDNESDAY...
BUT BY THURSDAY THE UPPER TROF MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST AS A SHORTWAVE
CUTS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. A SLIGHTLY WEAKER AND BROADER UPPER
TROF THEN CONTINUES THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. AT THE SFC...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING ONE WEAK
AND RAINFREE SFC FRONT ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND ANOTHER
STRONGER ONE FRIDAY NIGHT. FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRIDAY NIGHT FRONT COULD RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN THEN...BUT THE OVERALL AIRMASS WILL STILL BE VERY DRY. GRADUALLY
WARMING DAYTIME HIGH TEMPS AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD AND RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS...WITH HIGHS
RISING FROM THE 50S WELL INTO THE 60S. COLD WEDNESDAY NIGHT TEMPS
RANGING FROM UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER
30S NORTH TO MID 40S COASTAL...THEN A FEW DEGREES WARMER FRIDAY
NIGHT. 12/DS

MARINE...MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW OVER AREA COASTAL WATERS WILL EASE
TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FROM OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY SOUTH OVER THE OPEN GULF OF MEXICO. A STRONG FRONT WILL
BE PUSHED ACROSS THE MARINE AREA LATER TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
BRINGING STRONG TO VERY STRONG WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND
BUILDING SEAS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS WILL EASE SOME LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BUT ANOTHER WEAKER FRONT WILL MOVE OVER AREA
COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY...KEEPING WINDS STRONG THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WINDS WILL SETTLE THURSDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PASSES
NORTH OF THE AREA. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE
TIME ALL THE WAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A
BRIEF PERIOD BELOW SCA TODAY. GALE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR
POSSIBLE UPGRADE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. 16/SAM

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     GMZ630>635-650-655-670-675.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST MONDAY
     FOR GMZ650-655-670-675.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TUESDAY TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
     GMZ630>635-650-655-670-675.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR GMZ630>635.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MOB





000
FXUS64 KMOB 071117
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
517 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE...VFR CIGS/VISBYS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST.

/16

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 457 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016/

NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...PRIMARY FORECAST PROBLEM THE
FIRST TWO PERIODS OF THE FORECAST IS TEMPERATURES. WITH NORTHERLY
FLOW TODAY MAINTAINING THE COOL AND DRY AIRMASS OVER THE AREA...WE
ARE EXPECTING TEMPS TO REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY
IN THE UPPER 50S TO ROUND 60. TONIGHT...A STRONG UPPER SYSTEM MOVES
SOUTH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY...PUSHING A REINFORCING FRONT TOWARDS THE FCST AREA AND
ULTIMATELY PARTIALLY ACROSS THE FCST AREA. THIS FRONT WILL BRING A
SWITCH IN THE WINDS TO MORE WESTERLY AHEAD OF ITS PASSAGE TONIGHT...
KEEPING TEMPS FROM FALLING AS LOW AS PREVIOUS NIGHTS. OVERNIGHT LOWS
STILL GENERALLY BELOW SEASONAL...WITH TEMPS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MID
30S TO AROUND 40 BY SUNRISE MONDAY. 16/SAM

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...DEEPENING UPPER TROF
OVER EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY WILL DRIVE A REINFORCING COLD
FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE FCST AREA ON MONDAY...BUT PRECIPITABLE WATER
WILL BE LESS THAN 0.30 INCHES FOR THE MOST PART AND NO PCPN IS
EXPECTED. WINDS WILL RATHER GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY...WILL
MONITOR NEED FOR A WIND ADVSY. DEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS UPPER TROF PERSISTS BUT
GRADUALLY WEAKENS. MONDAY`S HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S...BUT
COOLING TO THE MID 40S INLAND TO LOWER 50S COASTAL ON TUESDAY. COLDER
AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 20S WELL INLAND TO THE MID 30S AT THE COAST. SLIGHTLY
WARMER BY A FEW DEGREES TUESDAY NIGHT. 12/DS

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...NOT MUCH CHANGE WEDNESDAY...
BUT BY THURSDAY THE UPPER TROF MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST AS A SHORTWAVE
CUTS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. A SLIGHTLY WEAKER AND BROADER UPPER
TROF THEN CONTINUES THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. AT THE SFC...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING ONE WEAK
AND RAINFREE SFC FRONT ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND ANOTHER
STRONGER ONE FRIDAY NIGHT. FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRIDAY NIGHT FRONT COULD RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN THEN...BUT THE OVERALL AIRMASS WILL STILL BE VERY DRY. GRADUALLY
WARMING DAYTIME HIGH TEMPS AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD AND RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS...WITH HIGHS
RISING FROM THE 50S WELL INTO THE 60S. COLD WEDNESDAY NIGHT TEMPS
RANGING FROM UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER
30S NORTH TO MID 40S COASTAL...THEN A FEW DEGREES WARMER FRIDAY
NIGHT. 12/DS

MARINE...MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW OVER AREA COASTAL WATERS WILL EASE
TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FROM OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY SOUTH OVER THE OPEN GULF OF MEXICO. A STRONG FRONT WILL
BE PUSHED ACROSS THE MARINE AREA LATER TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
BRINGING STRONG TO VERY STRONG WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND
BUILDING SEAS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS WILL EASE SOME LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BUT ANOTHER WEAKER FRONT WILL MOVE AREA
COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY...KEEPING WINDS STRONG THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WINDS WILL SETTLE THURSDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PASSES
NORTH OF THE AREA. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE
TIME ALL THE WAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A
BRIEF PERIOD BELOW SCA TODAY. GALE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR
POSSIBLE UPGRADE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. 16/SAM

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     GMZ630>635-650-655-670-675.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR GMZ650-655-
     670-675.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST MONDAY
     FOR GMZ650-655-670-675.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TUESDAY TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
     GMZ630>635-650-655-670-675.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR GMZ630>635.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MOB




000
FXUS64 KMOB 071117
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
517 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE...VFR CIGS/VISBYS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST.

/16

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 457 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016/

NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...PRIMARY FORECAST PROBLEM THE
FIRST TWO PERIODS OF THE FORECAST IS TEMPERATURES. WITH NORTHERLY
FLOW TODAY MAINTAINING THE COOL AND DRY AIRMASS OVER THE AREA...WE
ARE EXPECTING TEMPS TO REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY
IN THE UPPER 50S TO ROUND 60. TONIGHT...A STRONG UPPER SYSTEM MOVES
SOUTH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY...PUSHING A REINFORCING FRONT TOWARDS THE FCST AREA AND
ULTIMATELY PARTIALLY ACROSS THE FCST AREA. THIS FRONT WILL BRING A
SWITCH IN THE WINDS TO MORE WESTERLY AHEAD OF ITS PASSAGE TONIGHT...
KEEPING TEMPS FROM FALLING AS LOW AS PREVIOUS NIGHTS. OVERNIGHT LOWS
STILL GENERALLY BELOW SEASONAL...WITH TEMPS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MID
30S TO AROUND 40 BY SUNRISE MONDAY. 16/SAM

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...DEEPENING UPPER TROF
OVER EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY WILL DRIVE A REINFORCING COLD
FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE FCST AREA ON MONDAY...BUT PRECIPITABLE WATER
WILL BE LESS THAN 0.30 INCHES FOR THE MOST PART AND NO PCPN IS
EXPECTED. WINDS WILL RATHER GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY...WILL
MONITOR NEED FOR A WIND ADVSY. DEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS UPPER TROF PERSISTS BUT
GRADUALLY WEAKENS. MONDAY`S HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S...BUT
COOLING TO THE MID 40S INLAND TO LOWER 50S COASTAL ON TUESDAY. COLDER
AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 20S WELL INLAND TO THE MID 30S AT THE COAST. SLIGHTLY
WARMER BY A FEW DEGREES TUESDAY NIGHT. 12/DS

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...NOT MUCH CHANGE WEDNESDAY...
BUT BY THURSDAY THE UPPER TROF MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST AS A SHORTWAVE
CUTS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. A SLIGHTLY WEAKER AND BROADER UPPER
TROF THEN CONTINUES THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. AT THE SFC...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING ONE WEAK
AND RAINFREE SFC FRONT ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND ANOTHER
STRONGER ONE FRIDAY NIGHT. FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRIDAY NIGHT FRONT COULD RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN THEN...BUT THE OVERALL AIRMASS WILL STILL BE VERY DRY. GRADUALLY
WARMING DAYTIME HIGH TEMPS AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD AND RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS...WITH HIGHS
RISING FROM THE 50S WELL INTO THE 60S. COLD WEDNESDAY NIGHT TEMPS
RANGING FROM UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER
30S NORTH TO MID 40S COASTAL...THEN A FEW DEGREES WARMER FRIDAY
NIGHT. 12/DS

MARINE...MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW OVER AREA COASTAL WATERS WILL EASE
TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FROM OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY SOUTH OVER THE OPEN GULF OF MEXICO. A STRONG FRONT WILL
BE PUSHED ACROSS THE MARINE AREA LATER TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
BRINGING STRONG TO VERY STRONG WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND
BUILDING SEAS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS WILL EASE SOME LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BUT ANOTHER WEAKER FRONT WILL MOVE AREA
COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY...KEEPING WINDS STRONG THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WINDS WILL SETTLE THURSDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PASSES
NORTH OF THE AREA. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE
TIME ALL THE WAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A
BRIEF PERIOD BELOW SCA TODAY. GALE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR
POSSIBLE UPGRADE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. 16/SAM

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     GMZ630>635-650-655-670-675.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR GMZ650-655-
     670-675.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST MONDAY
     FOR GMZ650-655-670-675.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TUESDAY TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
     GMZ630>635-650-655-670-675.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR GMZ630>635.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MOB





000
FXUS64 KMOB 071057
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
457 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...PRIMARY FORECAST PROBLEM THE
FIRST TWO PERIODS OF THE FORECAST IS TEMPERATURES. WITH NORTHERLY
FLOW TODAY MAINTAINING THE COOL AND DRY AIRMASS OVER THE AREA...WE
ARE EXPECTING TEMPS TO REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY
IN THE UPPER 50S TO ROUND 60. TONIGHT...A STRONG UPPER SYSTEM MOVES
SOUTH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY...PUSHING A REINFORCING FRONT TOWARDS THE FCST AREA AND
ULTIMATELY PARTIALLY ACROSS THE FCST AREA. THIS FRONT WILL BRING A
SWITCH IN THE WINDS TO MORE WESTERLY AHEAD OF ITS PASSAGE TONIGHT...
KEEPING TEMPS FROM FALLING AS LOW AS PREVIOUS NIGHTS. OVERNIGHT LOWS
STILL GENERALLY BELOW SEASONAL...WITH TEMPS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MID
30S TO AROUND 40 BY SUNRISE MONDAY. 16/SAM

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...DEEPENING UPPER TROF
OVER EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY WILL DRIVE A REINFORCING COLD
FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE FCST AREA ON MONDAY...BUT PRECIPITABLE WATER
WILL BE LESS THAN 0.30 INCHES FOR THE MOST PART AND NO PCPN IS
EXPECTED. WINDS WILL RATHER GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY...WILL
MONITOR NEED FOR A WIND ADVSY. DEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS UPPER TROF PERSISTS BUT
GRADUALLY WEAKENS. MONDAYS HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S...BUT
COOLING TO THE MID 40S INLAND TO LOWER 50S COASTAL ON TUESDAY. COLDER
AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 20S WELL INLAND TO THE MID 30S AT THE COAST. SLIGHTLY
WARMER BY A FEW DEGREES TUESDAY NIGHT. 12/DS

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...NOT MUCH CHANGE WEDNESDAY...
BUT BY THURSDAY THE UPPER TROF MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST AS A SHORTWAVE
CUTS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. A SLIGHTLY WEAKER AND BROADER UPPER
TROF THEN CONTINUES THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. AT THE SFC...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING ONE WEAK
AND RAINFREE SFC FRONT ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND ANOTHER
STRONGER ONE FRIDAY NIGHT. FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRIDAY NIGHT FRONT COULD RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN THEN...BUT THE OVERALL AIRMASS WILL STILL BE VERY DRY. GRADUALLY
WARMING DAYTIME HIGH TEMPS AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD AND RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS...WITH HIGHS
RISING FROM THE 50S WELL INTO THE 60S. COLD WEDNESDAY NIGHT TEMPS
RANGING FROM UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER
30S NORTH TO MID 40S COASTAL...THEN A FEW DEGREES WARMER FRIDAY
NIGHT. 12/DS

.MARINE...MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW OVER AREA COASTAL WATERS WILL EASE
TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FROM OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY SOUTH OVER THE OPEN GULF OF MEXICO. A STRONG FRONT WILL
BE PUSHED ACROSS THE MARINE AREA LATER TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
BRINGING STRONG TO VERY STRONG WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND
BUILDING SEAS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS WILL EASE SOME LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BUT ANOTHER WEAKER FRONT WILL MOVE AREA
COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY...KEEPING WINDS STRONG THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WINDS WILL SETTLE THURSDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PASSES
NORTH OF THE AREA. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE
TIME ALL THE WAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A
BRIEF PERIOD BELOW SCA TODAY. GALE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR
POSSIBLE UPGRADE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. 16/SAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      58  39  55  32 /   0   0  10  10
PENSACOLA   59  41  57  34 /   0   0  10  10
DESTIN      58  45  58  38 /   0   0  10  10
EVERGREEN   58  36  54  31 /   0   0  10  10
WAYNESBORO  61  35  53  29 /   0   0  10  10
CAMDEN      58  37  52  31 /   0   0  10  10
CRESTVIEW   60  37  57  32 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     GMZ630>635-650-655-670-675.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR GMZ650-655-
     670-675.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST MONDAY
     FOR GMZ650-655-670-675.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TUESDAY TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
     GMZ630>635-650-655-670-675.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR GMZ630>635.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MOB





000
FXUS64 KMOB 070545
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1145 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE TONIGHT AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST OF THE REGION. MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY. LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS TONIGHT
WILL GRADUALLY BECOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
SUNDAY EVENING. /21

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016/

NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY/...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
TONIGHT AND INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE FLORIDA FIRST COAST.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BRING A
REINFORCING SHOT OF DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. AND WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE SEEN
TONIGHT. BY SUNRISE SUNDAY...SUB- FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
BE SEEN EVERYWHERE EXCEPT IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS.

WE`LL START LOOKING TO OUR NORTHWEST SUNDAY.  A PERTURBATION IN THE
UPPER ATMOSPHERE SHOULD CARVE AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE
PLAINS...WHICH WILL START PUSHING A COLD FRONT TOWARD OUR REGION.
BEFORE THE FRONT`S ARRIVAL...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MOVE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LOW-LEVEL THICKEN...AROUND THE 1000- 850MB
LAYER...APPEAR TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO THOSE SEEN TODAY. GIVEN THIS...I
EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO THOSE
WE`RE SEEING TODAY WITH MOST PLACES IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S.
GIVEN THE DRY AIRMASS AND EXPECTED QUICK MORNING TEMPERATURE RISE...A
FEW SPOTS MAY BE WARMER AND ACTUALLY REACH/BUST THROUGH THE 60 DEGREE
MARK. /BUTTS/

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE SOMEWHAT SUNDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE WINDS BECOME MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY AS AN UPSTREAM DRY, COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. WE THEN GET THE BENEFIT OF A LITTLE
LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION (WAA). SKIES THOUGH SHOULD REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR THUS WAA WILL BE OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY RADIATIONAL COOLING.
THE END RESULT THOUGH SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES GENERALLY ABOVE
FREEZING ACROSS THE AREA WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S
AND 40S ALONG THE COAST.

CURRENT TIMING PUTS THE COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
MONDAY MORNING AND THROUGH SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDY CONDITIONS AND COOLING
TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. NO PRECIPITATION IS
ANTICIPATED AND ONLY PATCHY CLOUD COVER IS FORECASTED AS IT PUSHES
THROUGH.

STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION (CAA) BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT WILL
BE OFFSET OVERNIGHT BY WINDY CONDITIONS KEEPING THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WELL MIXED...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST WHERE WINDS MAY STAY UP ALL
NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BOTTOM OUT TUESDAY MORNING IN THE UPPER
20S TO LOW 30S MOST INLAND LOCATIONS AND IN THE LOW TO MID 30S ALONG
THE COAST. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 40S ON
TUESDAY AS GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND CAA CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO
THE AREA.

MODELS PROJECT THE CAA ENDING TUESDAY EVENING AS THE AXIS OF THE UPPER
LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH ALOFT SHIFTS EAST AND THE LONG WAVE RIDGE
NUDGES IN FROM THE WEST. OVERNIGHT LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL STILL BE
CHILLY THOUGH...DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S INLAND AND
THEN MID TO UPPER 30S ALONG THE COAST. /08

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...MILD AND DRY WEATHER IS
PROJECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AS WE REMAIN UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD
WILL TREND TOWARD CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECASTED TO WARM FRIDAY TO NEAR 70
AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH CREATING A SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW OVER THE REGION. THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY PROJECTED TO
PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH COOLER AIR AND
NORTHERLY WINDS FOLLOWING IN ITS WAKE. HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FOR
NOW BUT CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME SPRINKLES AND MAYBE SOME
LIGHT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS. /08

MARINE...NOW THROUGH SUNDAY...A TROUGH IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. TONIGHT...INDUCING CYCLOGENESIS IN THE
GULF STREAM JUST OFFSHORE OF THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST. THE
RESULTANT INCREASE IN PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE MARINE
AREA...COMBINED WITH LOCAL DRAINAGE EFFECTS...WILL YIELD INCREASED
WIND SPEEDS OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS. WIND SPEEDS
SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER MID-MORNING SUNDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
QUICKLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION IN A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. WILL
LEAVE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
WATERS TONIGHT...BUT TRIM BACK THE EXPIRATION TIME SUNDAY TO 9 AM.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXERCISE CAUTION OVER AREA BAYS AND
INLAND WATERWAYS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF COLD
FRONTS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MARINE AREA MONDAY.  INCREASING WIND
SPEEDS AND BUILDING SEAS ARE ANTICIPATED BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH
ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MID-WEEK. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH GALE
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE OVER THE GULF (ESPECIALLY BEYOND 20 NM.) MONDAY.
/BUTTS/

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SUNDAY FOR GMZ650-655-670-
     675.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MOB





000
FXUS64 KMOB 070545
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1145 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE TONIGHT AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST OF THE REGION. MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY. LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS TONIGHT
WILL GRADUALLY BECOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
SUNDAY EVENING. /21

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016/

NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY/...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
TONIGHT AND INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE FLORIDA FIRST COAST.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BRING A
REINFORCING SHOT OF DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. AND WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE SEEN
TONIGHT. BY SUNRISE SUNDAY...SUB- FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
BE SEEN EVERYWHERE EXCEPT IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS.

WE`LL START LOOKING TO OUR NORTHWEST SUNDAY.  A PERTURBATION IN THE
UPPER ATMOSPHERE SHOULD CARVE AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE
PLAINS...WHICH WILL START PUSHING A COLD FRONT TOWARD OUR REGION.
BEFORE THE FRONT`S ARRIVAL...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MOVE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LOW-LEVEL THICKEN...AROUND THE 1000- 850MB
LAYER...APPEAR TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO THOSE SEEN TODAY. GIVEN THIS...I
EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO THOSE
WE`RE SEEING TODAY WITH MOST PLACES IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S.
GIVEN THE DRY AIRMASS AND EXPECTED QUICK MORNING TEMPERATURE RISE...A
FEW SPOTS MAY BE WARMER AND ACTUALLY REACH/BUST THROUGH THE 60 DEGREE
MARK. /BUTTS/

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE SOMEWHAT SUNDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE WINDS BECOME MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY AS AN UPSTREAM DRY, COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. WE THEN GET THE BENEFIT OF A LITTLE
LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION (WAA). SKIES THOUGH SHOULD REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR THUS WAA WILL BE OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY RADIATIONAL COOLING.
THE END RESULT THOUGH SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES GENERALLY ABOVE
FREEZING ACROSS THE AREA WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S
AND 40S ALONG THE COAST.

CURRENT TIMING PUTS THE COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
MONDAY MORNING AND THROUGH SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDY CONDITIONS AND COOLING
TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. NO PRECIPITATION IS
ANTICIPATED AND ONLY PATCHY CLOUD COVER IS FORECASTED AS IT PUSHES
THROUGH.

STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION (CAA) BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT WILL
BE OFFSET OVERNIGHT BY WINDY CONDITIONS KEEPING THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WELL MIXED...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST WHERE WINDS MAY STAY UP ALL
NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BOTTOM OUT TUESDAY MORNING IN THE UPPER
20S TO LOW 30S MOST INLAND LOCATIONS AND IN THE LOW TO MID 30S ALONG
THE COAST. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 40S ON
TUESDAY AS GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND CAA CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO
THE AREA.

MODELS PROJECT THE CAA ENDING TUESDAY EVENING AS THE AXIS OF THE UPPER
LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH ALOFT SHIFTS EAST AND THE LONG WAVE RIDGE
NUDGES IN FROM THE WEST. OVERNIGHT LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL STILL BE
CHILLY THOUGH...DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S INLAND AND
THEN MID TO UPPER 30S ALONG THE COAST. /08

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...MILD AND DRY WEATHER IS
PROJECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AS WE REMAIN UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD
WILL TREND TOWARD CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECASTED TO WARM FRIDAY TO NEAR 70
AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH CREATING A SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW OVER THE REGION. THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY PROJECTED TO
PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH COOLER AIR AND
NORTHERLY WINDS FOLLOWING IN ITS WAKE. HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FOR
NOW BUT CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME SPRINKLES AND MAYBE SOME
LIGHT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS. /08

MARINE...NOW THROUGH SUNDAY...A TROUGH IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. TONIGHT...INDUCING CYCLOGENESIS IN THE
GULF STREAM JUST OFFSHORE OF THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST. THE
RESULTANT INCREASE IN PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE MARINE
AREA...COMBINED WITH LOCAL DRAINAGE EFFECTS...WILL YIELD INCREASED
WIND SPEEDS OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS. WIND SPEEDS
SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER MID-MORNING SUNDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
QUICKLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION IN A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. WILL
LEAVE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
WATERS TONIGHT...BUT TRIM BACK THE EXPIRATION TIME SUNDAY TO 9 AM.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXERCISE CAUTION OVER AREA BAYS AND
INLAND WATERWAYS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF COLD
FRONTS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MARINE AREA MONDAY.  INCREASING WIND
SPEEDS AND BUILDING SEAS ARE ANTICIPATED BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH
ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MID-WEEK. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH GALE
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE OVER THE GULF (ESPECIALLY BEYOND 20 NM.) MONDAY.
/BUTTS/

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SUNDAY FOR GMZ650-655-670-
     675.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MOB





000
FXUS64 KMOB 070545
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1145 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE TONIGHT AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST OF THE REGION. MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY. LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS TONIGHT
WILL GRADUALLY BECOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
SUNDAY EVENING. /21

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016/

NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY/...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
TONIGHT AND INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE FLORIDA FIRST COAST.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BRING A
REINFORCING SHOT OF DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. AND WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE SEEN
TONIGHT. BY SUNRISE SUNDAY...SUB- FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
BE SEEN EVERYWHERE EXCEPT IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS.

WE`LL START LOOKING TO OUR NORTHWEST SUNDAY.  A PERTURBATION IN THE
UPPER ATMOSPHERE SHOULD CARVE AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE
PLAINS...WHICH WILL START PUSHING A COLD FRONT TOWARD OUR REGION.
BEFORE THE FRONT`S ARRIVAL...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MOVE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LOW-LEVEL THICKEN...AROUND THE 1000- 850MB
LAYER...APPEAR TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO THOSE SEEN TODAY. GIVEN THIS...I
EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO THOSE
WE`RE SEEING TODAY WITH MOST PLACES IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S.
GIVEN THE DRY AIRMASS AND EXPECTED QUICK MORNING TEMPERATURE RISE...A
FEW SPOTS MAY BE WARMER AND ACTUALLY REACH/BUST THROUGH THE 60 DEGREE
MARK. /BUTTS/

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE SOMEWHAT SUNDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE WINDS BECOME MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY AS AN UPSTREAM DRY, COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. WE THEN GET THE BENEFIT OF A LITTLE
LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION (WAA). SKIES THOUGH SHOULD REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR THUS WAA WILL BE OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY RADIATIONAL COOLING.
THE END RESULT THOUGH SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES GENERALLY ABOVE
FREEZING ACROSS THE AREA WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S
AND 40S ALONG THE COAST.

CURRENT TIMING PUTS THE COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
MONDAY MORNING AND THROUGH SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDY CONDITIONS AND COOLING
TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. NO PRECIPITATION IS
ANTICIPATED AND ONLY PATCHY CLOUD COVER IS FORECASTED AS IT PUSHES
THROUGH.

STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION (CAA) BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT WILL
BE OFFSET OVERNIGHT BY WINDY CONDITIONS KEEPING THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WELL MIXED...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST WHERE WINDS MAY STAY UP ALL
NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BOTTOM OUT TUESDAY MORNING IN THE UPPER
20S TO LOW 30S MOST INLAND LOCATIONS AND IN THE LOW TO MID 30S ALONG
THE COAST. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 40S ON
TUESDAY AS GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND CAA CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO
THE AREA.

MODELS PROJECT THE CAA ENDING TUESDAY EVENING AS THE AXIS OF THE UPPER
LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH ALOFT SHIFTS EAST AND THE LONG WAVE RIDGE
NUDGES IN FROM THE WEST. OVERNIGHT LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL STILL BE
CHILLY THOUGH...DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S INLAND AND
THEN MID TO UPPER 30S ALONG THE COAST. /08

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...MILD AND DRY WEATHER IS
PROJECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AS WE REMAIN UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD
WILL TREND TOWARD CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECASTED TO WARM FRIDAY TO NEAR 70
AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH CREATING A SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW OVER THE REGION. THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY PROJECTED TO
PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH COOLER AIR AND
NORTHERLY WINDS FOLLOWING IN ITS WAKE. HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FOR
NOW BUT CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME SPRINKLES AND MAYBE SOME
LIGHT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS. /08

MARINE...NOW THROUGH SUNDAY...A TROUGH IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. TONIGHT...INDUCING CYCLOGENESIS IN THE
GULF STREAM JUST OFFSHORE OF THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST. THE
RESULTANT INCREASE IN PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE MARINE
AREA...COMBINED WITH LOCAL DRAINAGE EFFECTS...WILL YIELD INCREASED
WIND SPEEDS OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS. WIND SPEEDS
SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER MID-MORNING SUNDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
QUICKLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION IN A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. WILL
LEAVE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
WATERS TONIGHT...BUT TRIM BACK THE EXPIRATION TIME SUNDAY TO 9 AM.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXERCISE CAUTION OVER AREA BAYS AND
INLAND WATERWAYS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF COLD
FRONTS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MARINE AREA MONDAY.  INCREASING WIND
SPEEDS AND BUILDING SEAS ARE ANTICIPATED BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH
ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MID-WEEK. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH GALE
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE OVER THE GULF (ESPECIALLY BEYOND 20 NM.) MONDAY.
/BUTTS/

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SUNDAY FOR GMZ650-655-670-
     675.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MOB




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