000
FXUS64 KMOB 240425 AAB
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...AVIATION UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1125 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.AVIATION (24.06Z ISSUANCE)...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. /13
&&
.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT]...WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW A WEAKEN SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO
DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE STRONGER UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS LOOK TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...AND WITH THE
LOW LEVEL FOCUS OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY OVER MISSISSIPPI
ZONES AND EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA AND THE COASTAL WATERS. IT IS
IN THESE AREAS THAT THE BETTER MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE...ALTHOUGH
STILL RATHER LIMITED. AS THE FRONT MOVES OUT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF ON
FRIDAY...DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND EVEN DRIER AIRMASS WILL PRECLUDE
ANY RAIN CHANCES. WITH THE DRIER AIRMASS TONIGHT...AM NOT EXPECTING
ANY WIDESPREAD FOG TO DEVELOPMENT. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS TONIGHT NEAR
CLIMO...WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S INLAND AND UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S COASTAL. NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL MAX TEMPS ON FRIDAY...IN THE
LOW TO MID 80S INTERIOR AND SOME UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 OVER PORTIONS
(AWAY FROM THE BEACHES) OF THE COASTAL ZONES. 12/DS
CLEAR AND COOLER CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY NIGHT ARE FORECAST TO BE SOME 7 TO 10 DEGREES LOWER THAN
TONIGHT`S MINS. /10
.LONG TERM [MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND THROUGH THURSDAY]...WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS
QUIET WITH NO RAIN IN THE FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FORECAST TO
HOLD WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE TO REMAIN MOSTLY LIMITED. AXIS OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS INTO THE
SOUTHEAST LATE THIS WEEKEND AND THEN OFF THE EAST COAST NEXT WEEK.
THUS...UNDER SOUTHERLY WINDS...WARM DAYTIME TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL MODERATE...MOVING WELL INTO THE 60S BY NEXT WEEK.
CLOSER TO 70 ALONG THE BEACHES. /10
&&
.MARINE...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH TOWARD AND THEN ACROSS
THE MARINE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
REBUILDING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RIDGE SOUTH OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO THROUGH TUESDAY. AN OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
MARINE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...LIKELY REACHING
EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS FRIDAY NIGHT. BY SATURDAY AND INTO THE EARLY
PART OF NEXT WEEK...FLOW BECOMES MORE EASTERLY THEN SOUTHEASTERLY AND
WEAKENS AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OVER THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC
COAST. 12/DS
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...WILL BE MOVING INTO A DRY PERIOD THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. ALTHOUGH LOWEST
DAYTIME HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE APPROACHING OR MOVING BELOW CRITICAL
LEVELS...NOT EXPECTED TO MEET OTHER CRITERIA SUCH AS REQUIRED ENERGY
RELEASE COMPONENTS (ERC`S)...20 FT WIND SPEED AND KBDI FOR FIRE
WEATHER HEADLINES. ON FRIDAY...DAILY DISPERSION RATING IS FORECAST TO
MOVE ABOVE 75...WHICH WILL BE IN THE GOOD CATEGORY. /10
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE 66 87 56 84 59 / 20 00 00 00 00
PENSACOLA 69 90 62 84 64 / 10 00 00 00 00
DESTIN 69 85 64 83 66 / 10 00 00 00 00
EVERGREEN 61 85 51 86 53 / 10 00 00 00 00
WAYNESBORO 61 84 51 86 52 / 10 05 00 00 00
CAMDEN 61 82 52 84 54 / 10 00 00 00 00
CRESTVIEW 62 89 51 87 54 / 05 00 00 00 00
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMOB 232328 AAA
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...AVIATION UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
625 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.AVIATION (24.00Z ISSUANCE)...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. /13
&&
.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT]...WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW A WEAKEN SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO
DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE STRONGER UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS LOOK TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...AND WITH THE
LOW LEVEL FOCUS OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY OVER MISSISSIPPI
ZONES AND EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA AND THE COASTAL WATERS. IT IS
IN THESE AREAS THAT THE BETTER MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE...ALTHOUGH
STILL RATHER LIMITED. AS THE FRONT MOVES OUT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF ON
FRIDAY...DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND EVEN DRIER AIRMASS WILL PRECLUDE
ANY RAIN CHANCES. WITH THE DRIER AIRMASS TONIGHT...AM NOT EXPECTING
ANY WIDESPREAD FOG TO DEVELOPMENT. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS TONIGHT NEAR
CLIMO...WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S INLAND AND UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S COASTAL. NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL MAX TEMPS ON FRIDAY...IN THE
LOW TO MID 80S INTERIOR AND SOME UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 OVER PORTIONS
(AWAY FROM THE BEACHES) OF THE COASTAL ZONES. 12/DS
CLEAR AND COOLER CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY NIGHT ARE FORECAST TO BE SOME 7 TO 10 DEGREES LOWER THAN
TONIGHT`S MINS. /10
.LONG TERM [MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND THROUGH THURSDAY]...WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS
QUIET WITH NO RAIN IN THE FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FORECAST TO
HOLD WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE TO REMAIN MOSTLY LIMITED. AXIS OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS INTO THE
SOUTHEAST LATE THIS WEEKEND AND THEN OFF THE EAST COAST NEXT WEEK.
THUS...UNDER SOUTHERLY WINDS...WARM DAYTIME TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL MODERATE...MOVING WELL INTO THE 60S BY NEXT WEEK.
CLOSER TO 70 ALONG THE BEACHES. /10
&&
.MARINE...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH TOWARD AND THEN ACROSS
THE MARINE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
REBUILDING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RIDGE SOUTH OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO THROUGH TUESDAY. AN OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
MARINE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...LIKELY REACHING
EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS FRIDAY NIGHT. BY SATURDAY AND INTO THE EARLY
PART OF NEXT WEEK...FLOW BECOMES MORE EASTERLY THEN SOUTHEASTERLY AND
WEAKENS AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OVER THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC
COAST. 12/DS
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...WILL BE MOVING INTO A DRY PERIOD THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. ALTHOUGH LOWEST
DAYTIME HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE APPROACHING OR MOVING BELOW CRITICAL
LEVELS...NOT EXPECTED TO MEET OTHER CRITERIA SUCH AS REQUIRED ENERGY
RELEASE COMPONENTS (ERC`S)...20 FT WIND SPEED AND KBDI FOR FIRE
WEATHER HEADLINES. ON FRIDAY...DAILY DISPERSION RATING IS FORECAST TO
MOVE ABOVE 75...WHICH WILL BE IN THE GOOD CATEGORY. /10
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE 66 87 56 84 59 / 20 00 00 00 00
PENSACOLA 69 90 62 84 64 / 10 00 00 00 00
DESTIN 69 85 64 83 66 / 10 00 00 00 00
EVERGREEN 61 85 51 86 53 / 10 00 00 00 00
WAYNESBORO 61 84 51 86 52 / 10 05 00 00 00
CAMDEN 61 82 52 84 54 / 10 00 00 00 00
CRESTVIEW 62 89 51 87 54 / 05 00 00 00 00
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMOB 232047
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
347 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT]...WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW A WEAKEN SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO
DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE STRONGER UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS LOOK TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...AND WITH THE
LOW LEVEL FOCUS OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY OVER MISSISSIPPI
ZONES AND EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA AND THE COASTAL WATERS. IT IS
IN THESE AREAS THAT THE BETTER MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE...ALTHOUGH
STILL RATHER LIMITED. AS THE FRONT MOVES OUT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF ON
FRIDAY...DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND EVEN DRIER AIRMASS WILL PRECLUDE
ANY RAIN CHANCES. WITH THE DRIER AIRMASS TONIGHT...AM NOT EXPECTING
ANY WIDESPREAD FOG TO DEVELOPMENT. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS TONIGHT NEAR
CLIMO...WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S INLAND AND UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S COASTAL. NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL MAX TEMPS ON FRIDAY...IN THE
LOW TO MID 80S INTERIOR AND SOME UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 OVER PORTIONS
(AWAY FROM THE BEACHES) OF THE COASTAL ZONES. 12/DS
CLEAR AND COOLER CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY NIGHT ARE FORECAST TO BE SOME 7 TO 10 DEGREES LOWER THAN
TONIGHT`S MINS. /10
.LONG TERM [MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND THROUGH THURSDAY]...WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS
QUIET WITH NO RAIN IN THE FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FORECAST TO
HOLD WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE TO REMAIN MOSTLY LIMITED. AXIS OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS INTO THE
SOUTHEAST LATE THIS WEEKEND AND THEN OFF THE EAST COAST NEXT WEEK.
THUS...UNDER SOUTHERLY WINDS...WARM DAYTIME TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL MODERATE...MOVING WELL INTO THE 60S BY NEXT WEEK.
CLOSER TO 70 ALONG THE BEACHES. /10
&&
.AVIATION...MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS. ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...BUT VERY WIDELY SCATTERED
AND DID NOT INCLUDE IN TERMINALS. FOG SHOULD ALSO BE LIMITED TONIGHT
DUE TO DRY AIRMASS...THUS NO SIGNIFICANT RESTRICTIONS TO SFC VSBY
EXPECTED. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS EVENING BECOMING LIGHT
NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. 12/DS
&&
.MARINE...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH TOWARD AND THEN ACROSS
THE MARINE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
REBUILDING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RIDGE SOUTH OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO THROUGH TUESDAY. AN OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
MARINE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...LIKELY REACHING
EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS FRIDAY NIGHT. BY SATURDAY AND INTO THE EARLY
PART OF NEXT WEEK...FLOW BECOMES MORE EASTERLY THEN SOUTHEASTERLY AND
WEAKENS AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OVER THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC
COAST. 12/DS
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...WILL BE MOVING INTO A DRY PERIOD THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. ALTHOUGH LOWEST
DAYTIME HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE APPROACHING OR MOVING BELOW CRITICAL
LEVELS...NOT EXPECTED TO MEET OTHER CRITERIA SUCH AS REQUIRED ENERGY
RELEASE COMPONENTS (ERC`S)...20 FT WIND SPEED AND KBDI FOR FIRE
WEATHER HEADLINES. ON FRIDAY...DAILY DISPERSION RATING IS FORECAST TO
MOVE ABOVE 75...WHICH WILL BE IN THE GOOD CATEGORY. /10
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE 66 87 56 84 59 / 20 00 00 00 00
PENSACOLA 69 90 62 84 64 / 10 00 00 00 00
DESTIN 69 85 64 83 66 / 10 00 00 00 00
EVERGREEN 61 85 51 86 53 / 10 00 00 00 00
WAYNESBORO 61 84 51 86 52 / 10 05 00 00 00
CAMDEN 61 82 52 84 54 / 10 00 00 00 00
CRESTVIEW 62 89 51 87 54 / 05 00 00 00 00
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMOB 231551
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1045 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.UPDATE...UPDATED ZONES TO REMOVE WORDING FOR PATCHY FOG...OTHERWISE
NO CHANGES. 12/DS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE 88 65 88 58 85 / 00 20 05 00 00
PENSACOLA 88 69 87 63 85 / 00 10 05 00 00
DESTIN 83 70 86 66 82 / 00 10 00 00 00
EVERGREEN 91 61 86 52 85 / 05 10 00 00 00
WAYNESBORO 90 62 85 51 86 / 05 10 05 00 00
CAMDEN 90 61 83 51 84 / 05 10 00 00 00
CRESTVIEW 91 61 89 52 87 / 00 05 00 00 00
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
32/21
000
FXUS64 KMOB 231550
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1045 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.UPDATE...UPDATED ZONES TO REMOVE WORDING FOR PATCHY FOG...OTHERWISE
NO CHAGES. 12/DS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE 88 65 88 58 85 / 00 20 05 00 00
PENSACOLA 88 69 87 63 85 / 00 10 05 00 00
DESTIN 83 70 86 66 82 / 00 10 00 00 00
EVERGREEN 91 61 86 52 85 / 05 10 00 00 00
WAYNESBORO 90 62 85 51 86 / 05 10 05 00 00
CAMDEN 90 61 83 51 84 / 05 10 00 00 00
CRESTVIEW 91 61 89 52 87 / 00 05 00 00 00
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
32/21
000
FXUS64 KMOB 230940
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
440 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SHORT TERM [TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT]...AXIS OF MAIN UPPER TROF THAT
BROUGHT CONVECTION TO THE REGION YESTERDAY IS NOW EAST OF THE CWFA
RESULTING IN A MUCH DRIER WEATHER PATTERN TODAY AND TONIGHT. AS THE
UPPER TROF SHIFTS FURTHER EAST TODAY A SHARP MID TO UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE SOUTH CENTRAL CONUS WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY AND GRADUALLY SHIFT
EAST OVERNIGHT AND EARLY FRI. AHEAD OF THIS UPPER RIDGE A BROAD
SURFACE RIDGE DIVES SOUTH FROM CANADA EVENTUALLY BRINGING COOLER
DRIER AIR THE REGION BEGINNING EARLY FRI CONTINUING THROUGH THE
FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. FOR TODAY EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH
A MODERATE SW FLOW DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL CLIMB TO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S INLAND AND
IN THE MID 80S NEAR THE COAST. AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE
LOWER THAN YESTERDAY. AS RESULT WITH MORE SUN THEN CLOUDS COMBINED
WITH LOWER HUMIDITIES AND A GOOD AFTERNOON SEABREEZE FROM THE SW
CONDITIONS WILL FEEL RATHER PLEASANT. FOR TONIGHT COOLER DRIER AIR
ADVECTS SOUTHWARD WITH MAYBE A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORMS FORMING
ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS AIRMASS MOSTLY NEAR THE COAST AND
OFFSHORE EARLY THIS EVENING. TONIGHTS LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER
60S INLAND AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S NEAR THE COAST. STILL COULD
SEE SOME FOG EARLY THIS MORNING WITH THE BETTER DEVELOPMENT JUST
INLAND FROM THE COAST AND AREAS TO THE WEST. 32/EE
THE WET MICROBURST RISK FOR TODAY IS LOW.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY FROM
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH MUCH OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
UPPER MIDWESTERN STATES FRIDAY...WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES
TO SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE EAST COAST AND MID ATLANTIC
STATES. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE PREVALENT ACROSS OUR AREA
BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES FRIDAY...AND A DEEP LAYER DRY AIRMASS
SPREADING SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE GULF COAST WILL SUPPORT MOSTLY SUNNY
AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MEANWHILE BUILD FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO THE GULF
COAST FRIDAY...ALLOWING FOR A CONTINUED NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW ACROSS
THE CWFA. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON...
PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHERE
HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 80S. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
MOSTLY WARM TO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY TO THE GULF COAST FRIDAY NIGHT. A MUCH DRIER SURFACE AIRMASS
WILL ALSO SPREAD INTO THE FORECAST AREA...WITH DEWPOINTS LIKELY
FALLING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS BY
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS DRY AIRMASS...ALONG WITH CONTINUED
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD SUPPORT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
MORNING. WE EXPECT LOWS TO RANGE FROM AROUND 50 TO THE LOWER 50S
ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE CWFA...AND IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND
60 NEAR THE COAST. /21
.LONG TERM [MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TO
NEAR THE GULF COAST REGION THIS UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A DEEP
LAYER DRY AIRMASS LOOKS TO STAY IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHER THAN A GRADUAL INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUD
COVER...SKIES SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH NO RAIN EXPECTED. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD REMAIN
ORIENTED FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE VICINITY OF THE NORTHEASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO THIS WEEKEND. CONTINUED WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED...SLOWLY TRENDING UPWARD A FEW DEGREES BY SUNDAY. EARLY
MORNING LOWS SUNDAY SHOULD REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH THE DRY AIRMASS
STAYING IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION.
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF WILL FLATTEN MONDAY...WITH WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ANTICIPATED OVER MUCH OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. SHORTWAVE TROUGHINESS WITHIN THIS FLOW REGIME
CURRENTLY LOOKS TO STAY WELL TO THE NORTH OF OUR CWFA MEMORIAL DAY...
SO WE WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION. LITTLE CHANGE
IN TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR MONDAY...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 INLAND...TO THE MID 80S NEAR THE BEACHES.
MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS THEN SHOW AGREEMENT WITH STRENGTHENING AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF EITHER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OR THE GULF COAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. RAIN
CHANCES LOOK VERY MINIMAL UNDERNEATH THIS PATTERN...SO WILL MAINTAIN
A DRY FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY. /21
&&
.AVIATION...[12Z ISSUANCE]...MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT
14Z THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT. STILL
EXPECT SOME LOW STRATUS AND FOG EARLY THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY SOME
SCT LOW CLOUDS MIXED WITH SCT TO BKN HIGH CLOUDS LATER IN THE DAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT
POSSIBLY LEADING TO AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM NEAR THE
COAST LATE IN THE DAY OR EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BECOME
MOSTLY SOUTHWEST AT 8 TO 12 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON
BECOMING NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS EARLY FRI MORNING. 32/EE
&&
.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN GULF WILL BECOME
REINFORCED LATE FRI THROUGH SAT IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE FRI AND FRI NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT A
MODERATE SW FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATER TODAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING THEN SHIFT NORTH AND GRADUALLY BUILD TO NEAR 20 KNOTS LATE
FRI AND THROUGH SAT MORNING. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FEET FRI
NIGHT AND EARLY SAT MOSTLY WELL OFFSHORE. A MODERATE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW IS EXPECTED LATER IN THE WEEKEND CONTINUING
THROUGH MID WEEK AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. ALSO COULD SEE A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING AHEAD OF THE COOLER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH. 32/EE
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS TODAY THOUGH A SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION. HIGHER DISPERSIONS ARE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON WITH MIXING HEIGHTS INCREASING TO AROUND 6000-7000 FT
AGL. A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WILL THEN SPREAD INTO THE REGION FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED
TO FALL TO NEAR CRITICAL LEVELS ACROSS OUR ALABAMA COUNTIES
FRIDAY...THEN ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN
THE MARGINALITY OF CRITICAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OVER OUR ALABAMA
COUNTIES...AND THAT HIGHER KBDI VALUES AND WIND SPEEDS MAY STAY JUST
EAST OF OUR AREA...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH FRIDAY ATTM. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS SATURDAY...AND LATER SHIFTS WILL MONITOR FOR
POTENTIAL WATCH ISSUANCE. /21
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE 88 65 88 58 85 / 00 20 05 00 00
PENSACOLA 88 69 87 63 85 / 00 10 05 00 00
DESTIN 83 70 86 66 82 / 00 10 00 00 00
EVERGREEN 91 61 86 52 85 / 05 10 00 00 00
WAYNESBORO 90 62 85 51 86 / 05 10 05 00 00
CAMDEN 90 61 83 51 84 / 05 10 00 00 00
CRESTVIEW 91 61 89 52 87 / 00 05 00 00 00
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
32/21
000
FXUS64 KMOB 230500 AAB
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1159 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
.AVIATION (06Z ISSUANCE)...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS BEGIN THE
TAF PERIOD THEN HAVE CONTINUED WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT FOG
BEGINNING AT 09Z. ALTHOUGH CURRENT DEWPOINTS ARE RUNNING SLIGHTLY
LOWER THAN 24 HOURS AGO...WRF CORES AND RAP HRRR/NAM VISIBILITIES
SUPPORT A TEMPO GROUP FROM 09-13Z FOR LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS. VFR
CONDITION RETURN BY 14Z AND CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF
PERIOD. /29
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/
SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT]...WEAKENING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LINGERS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. A SERIES OF WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL ROUND THE BASE OF BROAD UPPER TROF
MOVING OFF TO THE EAST...BUT DYNAMICS ARE VERY WEAK WITH THESE
FEATURES AND ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT
SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG THE SRN ZONES THIS EVENING WHERE
LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM PREVIOUS CONVECTION ARE PRESENT.
MUCH DRIER DEEP LAYER AIR EXPECTED THURSDAY AS MID/UPPER FLOW BECOMES
NORTHWESTERLY. QPF VALUES GENERALLY ONE QUARTER INCH OR LESS THIS
EVENING. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR CLIMO OR A LITTLE
ABOVE CLIMO...LOWER/MID 60S INLAND AND UPPER 60S LOWER 70S COASTAL.
DAYTIME HIGHS THURSDAY ABOVE CLIMO MOST LOCATIONS...UPPER 80S AND
LOWER 90S. 12/DS
AXIS OF MID LEVEL TROF TO ADVANCE EAST ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS
THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE A WEAKENING COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. OUT OF RESPECT FOR HARD TO RESOLVE MID LEVEL
IMPULSES IN THE EVOLVING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...ANY SURFACE FOCUS
FROM FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND PRECIPITABLE WATERS FROM 1.3 TO 1.5
INCHES...COULD SEE A FEW NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS COMING
SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI TO ACROSS SOUTHERN
ALABAMA...GENERALLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 84. GIVEN THE WEAKENED OR
WEAKENING STATE OF FRONT...LAYER LIFT ALSO LOOKS WEAK SO WILL KEEP
CHANCES OF STORMS MOSTLY 10%. LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED IN NIGHTTIME
LOWS. /10
LONG TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...A MUCH DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN ALOFT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY ON THE EASTERN
FRINGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BUILD FROM
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TO THE ARKLATEX REGION AND NORTHWARD INTO
THE UPPER MIDWESTERN STATES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MEANWHILE
CONTINUE TO BUILD FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SOUTHWARD TO THE GULF
COAST REGION. NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED FRIDAY. THE SURFACE RIDGE SHOULD CONTINUE TO BUILD
SOUTHWARD FRIDAY NIGHT...AND LOOKS TO BRING A DRIER AIRMASS SOUTHWARD
INTO THE FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH IT. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LOWER
DEWPOINTS SHOULD RESULT IN COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS THE REGION.
WILL MAINTAIN LOWS INTO THE 50S GENERALLY NORTH OF THE IMMEDIATE
COAST FOR SATURDAY MORNING.
DRY WEATHER SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT CONTINUES. LITTLE
CHANGE IN DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
WITH MOST LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO RANGE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S BOTH
DAYS. NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING LOOKS TO EXPAND AT LEAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF
OF MEXICO THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...SO NO RAIN IS IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURE FORECAST UNCHANGED WITH DAILY HIGHS
WELL INTO THE 80S AND LOWS MODERATING WELL INTO THE 60S BY TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. CLOSER TO 70 ALONG THE BEACHES. 10/21
MARINE...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND
WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT THEN WEAKEN SLIGHTLY FRIDAY
INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH AND MOVING INTO THE MARINE AREA WHILE
DISSIPATING. A LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH LATE THURSDAY...WITH HIGHEST WINDS AND LARGEST SEAS DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS DUE TO A DEVELOPING SEABREEZE EACH
AFTERNOON. A MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP INTO THE
EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND...BECOMING MORE EASTERLY LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AND THEN SOUTHEASTERLY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS OFF THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST. 12/DS
FIRE WEATHER...DEEP MIXED LAYERS THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS RESULT IN HIGH
DISPERSION INDICES => NUMERICAL RATINGS AT OR ABOVE 75 FOR MANY AREAS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. /10
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE 67 90 66 88 57 / 20 00 10 05 00
PENSACOLA 70 88 70 88 61 / 20 00 10 05 00
DESTIN 72 81 71 86 64 / 20 00 05 05 00
EVERGREEN 64 93 63 86 53 / 20 05 10 05 00
WAYNESBORO 64 93 62 85 52 / 10 05 10 05 00
CAMDEN 64 92 62 83 52 / 20 05 10 05 00
CRESTVIEW 63 94 64 89 53 / 20 00 05 05 00
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMOB 222344 AAA
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
644 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
.AVIATION [23.00Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF ISSUANCE]...AREAS OF FOG
AGAIN LIKELY LATE TONIGHT...WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES AFTER 23.09Z.
VISIBILITIES EXPECTED TO IMPROVE WITH REGARD TO ANY LINGERING FOG
AFTER SUNRISE. VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY PREVAILING AFTER MID MORNING
THURSDAY. /22
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/
SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT]...WEAKENING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LINGERS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. A SERIES OF WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL ROUND THE BASE OF BROAD UPPER TROF
MOVING OFF TO THE EAST...BUT DYNAMICS ARE VERY WEAK WITH THESE
FEATURES AND ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT
SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG THE SRN ZONES THIS EVENING WHERE
LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM PREVIOUS CONVECTION ARE PRESENT.
MUCH DRIER DEEP LAYER AIR EXPECTED THURSDAY AS MID/UPPER FLOW BECOMES
NORTHWESTERLY. QPF VALUES GENERALLY ONE QUARTER INCH OR LESS THIS
EVENING. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR CLIMO OR A LITTLE
ABOVE CLIMO...LOWER/MID 60S INLAND AND UPPER 60S LOWER 70S COASTAL.
DAYTIME HIGHS THURSDAY ABOVE CLIMO MOST LOCATIONS...UPPER 80S AND
LOWER 90S. 12/DS
AXIS OF MID LEVEL TROF TO ADVANCE EAST ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS
THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE A WEAKENING COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. OUT OF RESPECT FOR HARD TO RESOLVE MID LEVEL
IMPULSES IN THE EVOLVING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...ANY SURFACE FOCUS
FROM FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND PRECIPITABLE WATERS FROM 1.3 TO 1.5
INCHES...COULD SEE A FEW NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS COMING
SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI TO ACROSS SOUTHERN
ALABAMA...GENERALLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 84. GIVEN THE WEAKENED OR
WEAKENING STATE OF FRONT...LAYER LIFT ALSO LOOKS WEAK SO WILL KEEP
CHANCES OF STORMS MOSTLY 10%. LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED IN NIGHTTIME
LOWS. /10
LONG TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...A MUCH DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN ALOFT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY ON THE EASTERN
FRINGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BUILD FROM
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TO THE ARKLATEX REGION AND NORTHWARD INTO
THE UPPER MIDWESTERN STATES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MEANWHILE
CONTINUE TO BUILD FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SOUTHWARD TO THE GULF
COAST REGION. NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED FRIDAY. THE SURFACE RIDGE SHOULD CONTINUE TO BUILD
SOUTHWARD FRIDAY NIGHT...AND LOOKS TO BRING A DRIER AIRMASS SOUTHWARD
INTO THE FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH IT. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LOWER
DEWPOINTS SHOULD RESULT IN COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS THE REGION.
WILL MAINTAIN LOWS INTO THE 50S GENERALLY NORTH OF THE IMMEDIATE
COAST FOR SATURDAY MORNING.
DRY WEATHER SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT CONTINUES. LITTLE
CHANGE IN DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
WITH MOST LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO RANGE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S BOTH
DAYS. NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING LOOKS TO EXPAND AT LEAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF
OF MEXICO THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...SO NO RAIN IS IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURE FORECAST UNCHANGED WITH DAILY HIGHS
WELL INTO THE 80S AND LOWS MODERATING WELL INTO THE 60S BY TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. CLOSER TO 70 ALONG THE BEACHES. 10/21
MARINE...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND
WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT THEN WEAKEN SLIGHTLY FRIDAY
INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH AND MOVING INTO THE MARINE AREA WHILE
DISSIPATING. A LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH LATE THURSDAY...WITH HIGHEST WINDS AND LARGEST SEAS DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS DUE TO A DEVELOPING SEABREEZE EACH
AFTERNOON. A MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP INTO THE
EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND...BECOMING MORE EASTERLY LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AND THEN SOUTHEASTERLY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS OFF THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST. 12/DS
FIRE WEATHER...DEEP MIXED LAYERS THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS RESULT IN HIGH
DISPERSION INDICES => NUMERICAL RATINGS AT OR ABOVE 75 FOR MANY AREAS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. /10
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE 67 90 66 88 57 / 20 00 10 05 00
PENSACOLA 70 88 70 88 61 / 20 00 10 05 00
DESTIN 72 81 71 86 64 / 20 00 05 05 00
EVERGREEN 64 93 63 86 53 / 20 05 10 05 00
WAYNESBORO 64 93 62 85 52 / 10 05 10 05 00
CAMDEN 64 92 62 83 52 / 20 05 10 05 00
CRESTVIEW 63 94 64 89 53 / 20 00 05 05 00
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMOB 222025
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
325 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT]...WEAKENING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LINGERS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. A SERIES OF WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL ROUND THE BASE OF BROAD UPPER TROF
MOVING OFF TO THE EAST...BUT DYNAMICS ARE VERY WEAK WITH THESE
FEATURES AND ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT
SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG THE SRN ZONES THIS EVENING WHERE
LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM PREVIOUS CONVECTION ARE PRESENT.
MUCH DRIER DEEP LAYER AIR EXPECTED THURSDAY AS MID/UPPER FLOW BECOMES
NORTHWESTERLY. QPF VALUES GENERALLY ONE QUARTER INCH OR LESS THIS
EVENING. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR CLIMO OR A LITTLE
ABOVE CLIMO...LOWER/MID 60S INLAND AND UPPER 60S LOWER 70S COASTAL.
DAYTIME HIGHS THURSDAY ABOVE CLIMO MOST LOCATIONS...UPPER 80S AND
LOWER 90S. 12/DS
AXIS OF MID LEVEL TROF TO ADVANCE EAST ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS
THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE A WEAKENING COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. OUT OF RESPECT FOR HARD TO RESOLVE MID LEVEL
IMPULSES IN THE EVOLVING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...ANY SURFACE FOCUS
FROM FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND PRECIPITABLE WATERS FROM 1.3 TO 1.5
INCHES...COULD SEE A FEW NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS COMING
SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI TO ACROSS SOUTHERN
ALABAMA...GENERALLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 84. GIVEN THE WEAKENED OR
WEAKENING STATE OF FRONT...LAYER LIFT ALSO LOOKS WEAK SO WILL KEEP
CHANCES OF STORMS MOSTLY 10%. LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED IN NIGHTTIME
LOWS. /10
.LONG TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...A MUCH DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN ALOFT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY ON THE EASTERN
FRINGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BUILD FROM
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TO THE ARKLATEX REGION AND NORTHWARD INTO
THE UPPER MIDWESTERN STATES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MEANWHILE
CONTINUE TO BUILD FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SOUTHWARD TO THE GULF
COAST REGION. NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED FRIDAY. THE SURFACE RIDGE SHOULD CONTINUE TO BUILD
SOUTHWARD FRIDAY NIGHT...AND LOOKS TO BRING A DRIER AIRMASS SOUTHWARD
INTO THE FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH IT. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LOWER
DEWPOINTS SHOULD RESULT IN COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS THE REGION.
WILL MAINTAIN LOWS INTO THE 50S GENERALLY NORTH OF THE IMMEDIATE
COAST FOR SATURDAY MORNING.
DRY WEATHER SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT CONTINUES. LITTLE
CHANGE IN DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
WITH MOST LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO RANGE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S BOTH
DAYS. NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING LOOKS TO EXPAND AT LEAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF
OF MEXICO THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...SO NO RAIN IS IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURE FORECAST UNCHANGED WITH DAILY HIGHS
WELL INTO THE 80S AND LOWS MODERATING WELL INTO THE 60S BY TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. CLOSER TO 70 ALONG THE BEACHES. 10/21
&&
.AVIATION (23/00Z ISSUANCE)...BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS INTO THIS
EVENING WILL BE IN ASSOCIATION WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION.
AREAS OF FOG AGAIN LIKELY LATE TONIGHT...WITH IFR/LIFR VSBYS AND CIGS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. VSBYS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE WITH REGARD TO ANY
LINGERING FOG AFTER SUNRISE. VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY PREVAILING AFTER
MID MORNING THURSDAY. 12/DS
&&
.MARINE...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND
WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT THEN WEAKEN SLIGHTLY FRIDAY
INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH AND MOVING INTO THE MARINE AREA WHILE
DISSIPATING. A LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH LATE THURSDAY...WITH HIGHEST WINDS AND LARGEST SEAS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS DUE TO A DEVELOPING SEABREEZE
EACH AFTERNOON. A MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP INTO
THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND...BECOMING MORE EASTERLY LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AND THEN SOUTHEASTERLY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS OFF THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST. 12/DS
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...DEEP MIXED LAYERS THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS RESULT IN HIGH
DISPERSION INDICES => NUMERICAL RATINGS AT OR ABOVE 75 FOR MANY AREAS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. /10
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE 67 90 66 88 57 / 30 00 10 05 00
PENSACOLA 70 88 70 88 61 / 30 00 10 05 00
DESTIN 72 81 71 86 64 / 30 00 05 05 00
EVERGREEN 64 93 63 86 53 / 20 05 10 05 00
WAYNESBORO 64 93 62 85 52 / 20 05 10 05 00
CAMDEN 64 92 62 83 52 / 20 05 10 05 00
CRESTVIEW 63 94 64 89 53 / 30 00 05 05 00
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMOB 221258 CCA
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
751 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
.ZONE UPDATE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELED. WENT AHEAD AND
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES FURTHER TO THE EAST AND ALONG THE COAST. MCS
OVER SOUTHERN LA NOW LOOKS LIKE IT WILL HOLD TOGETHER ACROSS COASTAL
AREAS OF MS THEN SLOWLY ERODE OVER COASTAL AREAS OF AL AND THE
WESTERN FL PANHANDLE LATER TODAY. 32/EE
&&
.SHORT TERM [TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT]...A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND MOST INLAND AREAS OF
SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND LOWER PARTS OF INLAND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING.
VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH MAIN UPPER TROF OVER THE LOWER
AND MID MS RIVER VALLEYS THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST
AND DAMPEN SLOWLY TODAY PROVIDING ENOUGH MID LEVEL FORCING OR LIFT
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP LATER THIS
MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON...INITIALLY DEVELOPING OVER INLAND AREAS
OF SE MS EARLY TODAY SHIFTING EAST ACROSS MOST INLAND AREAS OF THE
CWFA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. LATEST RADAR AND
SATELLITE LOOPS CONTINUE TO SHOW CONVECTION TO THE WEST WEAKENING AS
IT MOVES INTO MORE STABLE AIR OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA THIS
MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS CONVECTION A WELL DEFINED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
HAS MOVED ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA WHICH
WILL LIKELY STALL LATER THIS MORNING AND POSSIBLY BECOME A FOCUS FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS MORNING
AND THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT INLAND
AND CONVERGE NEAR THE SFC DUE TO A WITH PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW. THE
BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING AS MAIN UPPER TROF AXIS SHIFTS
FURTHER TO THE EAST OVER THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF
STATES. LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM THE COAST TO EXTREME NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE CWFA BEGIN TO MOISTURE EARLY TODAY WITH PWS CLIMBING
TO AROUND 1.7 INCHES BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOW LEVEL SHEAR
BECOMING MOSTLY UNIDIRECTIONAL BY THIS AFTERNOON. SFC BASED CAPES
CLIMB TO AROUND 1000 J/KG BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON INCREASING TO
AROUND 3200 J/KG BY EARLY THIS EVENING AS DRIER AIR ALOFT BEGINS TO
FILTER IN FROM THE WEST. AS A RESULT WITH CONTINUED FORCING IN THE
MID LEVELS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING AND BETTER INSTABILITY FORMING
LATER IN THE DAY WE STILL COULD SEE A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AND POSSIBLY OVERNIGHT WITH THE BEST
CHANCE OCCURRING DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. GUSTY STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS AND SMALL TO MEDIUM SIZE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THE
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY. AS FOR TEMPS WILL LEAN TOWARDS
THE WARMER MAV/MET GUIDANCE FOR MOST AREAS TODAY THOUGH UNDERCUT
THESE VALUES A DEGREE OR TWO MOSTLY TO THE WEST AND NORTH WHERE
BETTER RAIN CHANCES AND CLOUDS WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 80S INLAND AND IN THE LOWER
80S NEAR THE COAST. AS FOR LOWS TONIGHT WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE WARMER
MAV/MET GUIDANCE AND ADD A DEGREE OR TWO TO SOME AREAS NEAR THE
COAST AND TO THE EAST DUE TO CLOUDS AND BETTER MIXING IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER. 32/EE
THE WET MICROBURST RISK FOR TODAY IS MODERATE.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THURSDAY ON THE BASE OF A DEEPER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL MEANWHILE BE PUSHING SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. SHORT
RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATE AN AXIS OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL THERMAL
RIDGING ACROSS MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE
APPROACHING BOUNDARY THURSDAY...WITH 925 MB TEMPERATURES WARMING
BETWEEN 23-25 C ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 80S TO AS HIGH AS THE MID 90S
ACROSS THE CWFA. THESE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WHEN COMBINED WITH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S SHOULD RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE REGION...PARTICULARLY NEAR COASTAL AREAS WHERE MLCAPE
VALUES MAY RANGE BETWEEN 1500-2500 J/KG. THOUGH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
AND FORCING LOOKS TO REMAIN FAIRLY MEAGER...AFTERNOON HEATING AND
INSTABILITY MAY RESULT IN AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY. WE LEFT A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
DAY THURSDAY. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL MODERATE INSTABILITY...ANY STORM
THAT DEVELOPS COULD BE STRONG OR NEAR SEVERE LIMITS. IT CURRENTLY
APPEARS STORM CHANCES WILL DECREASE WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...
AND HAVE KEPT A DRY FORECAST INTACT FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT MAY BE SLIGHTLY COOLER ACROSS THE REGION. /21
.LONG TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]...A MUCH DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN ALOFT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY ON THE EASTERN
FRINGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BUILD FROM
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TO THE ARKLATEX REGION AND NORTHWARD INTO
THE UPPER MIDWESTERN STATES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MEANWHILE
CONTINUE TO BUILD FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SOUTHWARD TO THE GULF
COAST REGION. NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS OUR CWFA FRIDAY. THE SURFACE RIDGE SHOULD CONTINUE TO
BUILD SOUTHWARD FRIDAY NIGHT...AND LOOKS TO BRING A DRIER AIRMASS
SOUTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH IT. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LOWER DEWPOINTS SHOULD RESULT IN COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS THE
REGION. WE LOWERED MIN TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ACROSS MOST
LOCATIONS...WITH MANY INLAND AREAS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 50S
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
DRY WEATHER SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT CONTINUES TO THE NORTHEAST OF
UPPER RIDGING EXTENDING ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. LITTLE
CHANGE IN DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
WITH MOST LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO RANGE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S BOTH
DAYS. NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING LOOKS TO EXPAND AT LEAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF
OF MEXICO THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...SO NO RAIN IS IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES REMAIN TRENDED CLOSE TO MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE. /21
&&
.AVIATION [12Z ISSUANCE]...IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT
14Z THIS MORNING THEN VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT 09Z THU
FOLLOWED BY MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 12Z FRI. LOW STATUS AND
FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 14Z THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY SCT TO
BKN LOW TO MID CLOUDS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT THEN MORE FOG AND LOW
STRATUS BETWEEN 09 AND 12Z THU. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BECOME BETTER DEVELOPED OVER MOST TERMINAL SITES BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. GUSTY STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING WILL BE LIKELY WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTH
AT 3 TO 5 KNOTS EARLY TODAY INCREASING TO 8 TO 12 KNOTS LATE THIS
MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON DIMINISHING TO 3 TO 5 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY THU MORNING. 32/EE
&&
.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL GULF WILL
WEAKEN AND SHIFT SOUTH TODAY IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVING EASTWARD OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND CENTRAL
GULF STATES TODAY AND TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME MOSTLY NORTH AND
BUILD LATE FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO A COLD FRONT
MOVING SOUTHWARD OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. A MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW
WILL DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE EAST. SEAS WILL BUILD TO AROUND 5 FEET WELL
OFFSHORE WITH THE STRONGER OFFSHORE FLOW LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY
SAT THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. 32/EE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE 85 68 90 66 86 / 30 20 20 10 05
PENSACOLA 85 71 89 68 87 / 20 20 20 10 05
DESTIN 83 72 87 70 85 / 10 20 20 10 05
EVERGREEN 88 66 93 63 85 / 30 30 20 10 05
WAYNESBORO 87 65 93 62 85 / 40 30 20 10 05
CAMDEN 88 65 92 62 83 / 30 40 20 10 05
CRESTVIEW 89 65 94 64 88 / 20 20 20 10 05
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
32/21
000
FXUS64 KMOB 221257 CCA
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
751 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
.ZONE UPDATE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELED. WENT AHEAD AND
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES FURTHER TO THE EAST AND ALONG THE COAST. MCS
OVER SOUTHERN LA NOW LOOKS LIKE IT WILL HOLD TOGETHER ACROSS COASTAL
AREAS OF MS THEN SLOWLY ERODE OVER COASTAL AREAS OF AL AND THE
WESTERN FL PANHANDLE LATER TODAY. 32/EE
&&
.SHORT TERM [TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT]...A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND MOST INLAND AREAS OF
SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND LOWER PARTS OF INLAND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING.
VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH MAIN UPPER TROF OVER THE LOWER
AND MID MS RIVER VALLEYS THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST
AND DAMPEN SLOWLY TODAY PROVIDING ENOUGH MID LEVEL FORCING OR LIFT
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP LATER THIS
MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON...INITIALLY DEVELOPING OVER INLAND AREAS
OF SE MS EARLY TODAY SHIFTING EAST ACROSS MOST INLAND AREAS OF THE
CWFA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. LATEST RADAR AND
SATELLITE LOOPS CONTINUE TO SHOW CONVECTION TO THE WEST WEAKENING AS
IT MOVES INTO MORE STABLE AIR OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA THIS
MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS CONVECTION A WELL DEFINED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
HAS MOVED ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA WHICH
WILL LIKELY STALL LATER THIS MORNING AND POSSIBLY BECOME A FOCUS FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS MORNING
AND THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT INLAND
AND CONVERGE NEAR THE SFC DUE TO A WITH PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW. THE
BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING AS MAIN UPPER TROF AXIS SHIFTS
FURTHER TO THE EAST OVER THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF
STATES. LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM THE COAST TO EXTREME NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE CWFA BEGIN TO MOISTURE EARLY TODAY WITH PWS CLIMBING
TO AROUND 1.7 INCHES BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOW LEVEL SHEAR
BECOMING MOSTLY UNIDIRECTIONAL BY THIS AFTERNOON. SFC BASED CAPES
CLIMB TO AROUND 1000 J/KG BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON INCREASING TO
AROUND 3200 J/KG BY EARLY THIS EVENING AS DRIER AIR ALOFT BEGINS TO
FILTER IN FROM THE WEST. AS A RESULT WITH CONTINUED FORCING IN THE
MID LEVELS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING AND BETTER INSTABILITY FORMING
LATER IN THE DAY WE STILL COULD SEE A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AND POSSIBLY OVERNIGHT WITH THE BEST
CHANCE OCCURRING DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. GUSTY STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS AND SMALL TO MEDIUM SIZE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THE
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY. AS FOR TEMPS WILL LEAN TOWARDS
THE WARMER MAV/MET GUIDANCE FOR MOST AREAS TODAY THOUGH UNDERCUT
THESE VALUES A DEGREE OR TWO MOSTLY TO THE WEST AND NORTH WHERE
BETTER RAIN CHANCES AND CLOUDS WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 80S INLAND AND IN THE LOWER
80S NEAR THE COAST. AS FOR LOWS TONIGHT WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE WARMER
MAV/MET GUIDANCE AND ADD A DEGREE OR TWO TO SOME AREAS NEAR THE
COAST AND TO THE EAST DUE TO CLOUDS AND BETTER MIXING IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER. 32/EE
THE WET MICROBURST RISK FOR TODAY IS MODERATE.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THURSDAY ON THE BASE OF A DEEPER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL MEANWHILE BE PUSHING SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. SHORT
RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATE AN AXIS OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL THERMAL
RIDGING ACROSS MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE
APPROACHING BOUNDARY THURSDAY...WITH 925 MB TEMPERATURES WARMING
BETWEEN 23-25 C ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 80S TO AS HIGH AS THE MID 90S
ACROSS THE CWFA. THESE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WHEN COMBINED WITH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S SHOULD RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE REGION...PARTICULARLY NEAR COASTAL AREAS WHERE MLCAPE
VALUES MAY RANGE BETWEEN 1500-2500 J/KG. THOUGH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
AND FORCING LOOKS TO REMAIN FAIRLY MEAGER...AFTERNOON HEATING AND
INSTABILITY MAY RESULT IN AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY. WE LEFT A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
DAY THURSDAY. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL MODERATE INSTABILITY...ANY STORM
THAT DEVELOPS COULD BE STRONG OR NEAR SEVERE LIMITS. IT CURRENTLY
APPEARS STORM CHANCES WILL DECREASE WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...
AND HAVE KEPT A DRY FORECAST INTACT FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT MAY BE SLIGHTLY COOLER ACROSS THE REGION. /21
.LONG TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]...A MUCH DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN ALOFT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY ON THE EASTERN
FRINGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BUILD FROM
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TO THE ARKLATEX REGION AND NORTHWARD INTO
THE UPPER MIDWESTERN STATES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MEANWHILE
CONTINUE TO BUILD FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SOUTHWARD TO THE GULF
COAST REGION. NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS OUR CWFA FRIDAY. THE SURFACE RIDGE SHOULD CONTINUE TO
BUILD SOUTHWARD FRIDAY NIGHT...AND LOOKS TO BRING A DRIER AIRMASS
SOUTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH IT. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LOWER DEWPOINTS SHOULD RESULT IN COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS THE
REGION. WE LOWERED MIN TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ACROSS MOST
LOCATIONS...WITH MANY INLAND AREAS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 50S
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
DRY WEATHER SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT CONTINUES TO THE NORTHEAST OF
UPPER RIDGING EXTENDING ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. LITTLE
CHANGE IN DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
WITH MOST LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO RANGE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S BOTH
DAYS. NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING LOOKS TO EXPAND AT LEAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF
OF MEXICO THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...SO NO RAIN IS IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES REMAIN TRENDED CLOSE TO MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE. /21
&&
.AVIATION [12Z ISSUANCE]...IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT
14Z THIS MORNING THEN VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT 09Z THU
FOLLOWED BY MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 12Z FRI. LOW STATUS AND
FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 14Z THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY SCT TO
BKN LOW TO MID CLOUDS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT THEN MORE FOG AND LOW
STRATUS BETWEEN 09 AND 12Z THU. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BECOME BETTER DEVELOPED OVER MOST TERMINAL SITES BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. GUSTY STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING WILL BE LIKELY WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTH
AT 3 TO 5 KNOTS EARLY TODAY INCREASING TO 8 TO 12 KNOTS LATE THIS
MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON DIMINISHING TO 3 TO 5 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY THU MORNING. 32/EE
&&
.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL GULF WILL
WEAKEN AND SHIFT SOUTH TODAY IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVING EASTWARD OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND CENTRAL
GULF STATES TODAY AND TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME MOSTLY NORTH AND
BUILD LATE FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO A COLD FRONT
MOVING SOUTHWARD OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. A MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW
WILL DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE EAST. SEAS WILL BUILD TO AROUND 5 FEET WELL
OFFSHORE WITH THE STRONGER OFFSHORE FLOW LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY
SAT THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. 32/EE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE 85 68 90 66 86 / 30 20 20 10 05
PENSACOLA 85 71 89 68 87 / 20 20 20 10 05
DESTIN 83 72 87 70 85 / 10 20 20 10 05
EVERGREEN 88 66 93 63 85 / 30 30 20 10 05
WAYNESBORO 87 65 93 62 85 / 40 30 20 10 05
CAMDEN 88 65 92 62 83 / 30 40 20 10 05
CRESTVIEW 89 65 94 64 88 / 20 20 20 10 05
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
32/21
000
FXUS64 KMOB 221255 AAA
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
751 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
.ZONE UPDATE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELED. WENT AHEAD AND
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES FURTHER TO THE EAST AND ALONG THE COAST. MCS
OVER SOUTHERN LA NOW LOOKS LIKE IT WILL HOLD TOGETHER ACROSS COASTAL
AREAS OF MS THEN SLOWLY ERODE OVER COASTAL AREAS OF AL AND THE
WESTERN FL PANHANDLE LATER TODAY. 32/EE
&&
.SHORT TERM [TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT]...A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND MOST INLAND AREAS OF
SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND LOWER PARTS OF INLAND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING.
VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH MAIN UPPER TROF OVER THE LOWER
AND MID MS RIVER VALLEYS THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST
AND DAMPEN SLOWLY TODAY PROVIDING ENOUGH MID LEVEL FORCING OR LIFT
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP LATER THIS
MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON...INITIALLY DEVELOPING OVER INLAND AREAS
OF SE MS EARLY TODAY SHIFTING EAST ACROSS MOST INLAND AREAS OF THE
CWFA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. LATEST RADAR AND
SATELLITE LOOPS CONTINUE TO SHOW CONVECTION TO THE WEST WEAKENING AS
IT MOVES INTO MORE STABLE AIR OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA THIS
MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS CONVECTION A WELL DEFINED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
HAS MOVED ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA WHICH
WILL LIKELY STALL LATER THIS MORNING AND POSSIBLY BECOME A FOCUS FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS MORNING
AND THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT INLAND
AND CONVERGE NEAR THE SFC DUE TO A WITH PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW. THE
BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING AS MAIN UPPER TROF AXIS SHIFTS
FURTHER TO THE EAST OVER THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF
STATES. LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM THE COAST TO EXTREME NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE CWFA BEGIN TO MOISTURE EARLY TODAY WITH PWS CLIMBING
TO AROUND 1.7 INCHES BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOW LEVEL SHEAR
BECOMING MOSTLY UNIDIRECTIONAL BY THIS AFTERNOON. SFC BASED CAPES
CLIMB TO AROUND 1000 J/KG BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON INCREASING TO
AROUND 3200 J/KG BY EARLY THIS EVENING AS DRIER AIR ALOFT BEGINS TO
FILTER IN FROM THE WEST. AS A RESULT WITH CONTINUED FORCING IN THE
MID LEVELS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING AND BETTER INSTABILITY FORMING
LATER IN THE DAY WE STILL COULD SEE A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AND POSSIBLY OVERNIGHT WITH THE BEST
CHANCE OCCURRING DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. GUSTY STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS AND SMALL TO MEDIUM SIZE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THE
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY. AS FOR TEMPS WILL LEAN TOWARDS
THE WARMER MAV/MET GUIDANCE FOR MOST AREAS TODAY THOUGH UNDERCUT
THESE VALUES A DEGREE OR TWO MOSTLY TO THE WEST AND NORTH WHERE
BETTER RAIN CHANCES AND CLOUDS WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 80S INLAND AND IN THE LOWER
80S NEAR THE COAST. AS FOR LOWS TONIGHT WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE WARMER
MAV/MET GUIDANCE AND ADD A DEGREE OR TWO TO SOME AREAS NEAR THE
COAST AND TO THE EAST DUE TO CLOUDS AND BETTER MIXING IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER. 32/EE
THE WET MICROBURST RISK FOR TODAY IS MODERATE.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THURSDAY ON THE BASE OF A DEEPER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL MEANWHILE BE PUSHING SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. SHORT
RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATE AN AXIS OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL THERMAL
RIDGING ACROSS MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE
APPROACHING BOUNDARY THURSDAY...WITH 925 MB TEMPERATURES WARMING
BETWEEN 23-25 C ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 80S TO AS HIGH AS THE MID 90S
ACROSS THE CWFA. THESE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WHEN COMBINED WITH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S SHOULD RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE REGION...PARTICULARLY NEAR COASTAL AREAS WHERE MLCAPE
VALUES MAY RANGE BETWEEN 1500-2500 J/KG. THOUGH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
AND FORCING LOOKS TO REMAIN FAIRLY MEAGER...AFTERNOON HEATING AND
INSTABILITY MAY RESULT IN AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY. WE LEFT A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
DAY THURSDAY. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL MODERATE INSTABILITY...ANY STORM
THAT DEVELOPS COULD BE STRONG OR NEAR SEVERE LIMITS. IT CURRENTLY
APPEARS STORM CHANCES WILL DECREASE WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...
AND HAVE KEPT A DRY FORECAST INTACT FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT MAY BE SLIGHTLY COOLER ACROSS THE REGION. /21
.LONG TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]...A MUCH DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN ALOFT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY ON THE EASTERN
FRINGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BUILD FROM
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TO THE ARKLATEX REGION AND NORTHWARD INTO
THE UPPER MIDWESTERN STATES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MEANWHILE
CONTINUE TO BUILD FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SOUTHWARD TO THE GULF
COAST REGION. NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS OUR CWFA FRIDAY. THE SURFACE RIDGE SHOULD CONTINUE TO
BUILD SOUTHWARD FRIDAY NIGHT...AND LOOKS TO BRING A DRIER AIRMASS
SOUTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH IT. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LOWER DEWPOINTS SHOULD RESULT IN COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS THE
REGION. WE LOWERED MIN TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ACROSS MOST
LOCATIONS...WITH MANY INLAND AREAS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 50S
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
DRY WEATHER SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT CONTINUES TO THE NORTHEAST OF
UPPER RIDGING EXTENDING ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. LITTLE
CHANGE IN DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
WITH MOST LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO RANGE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S BOTH
DAYS. NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING LOOKS TO EXPAND AT LEAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF
OF MEXICO THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...SO NO RAIN IS IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES REMAIN TRENDED CLOSE TO MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE. /21
&&
.AVIATION [12Z ISSUANCE]...IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT
14Z THIS MORNING THEN VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT 09Z THU
FOLLOWED BY MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 12Z FRI. LOW STATUS AND
FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 14Z THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY SCT TO
BKN LOW TO MID CLOUDS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT THEN MORE FOG AND LOW
STRATUS BETWEEN 09 AND 12Z THU. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BECOME BETTER DEVELOPED OVER MOST TERMINAL SITES BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. GUSTY STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING WILL BE LIKELY WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTH
AT 3 TO 5 KNOTS EARLY TODAY INCREASING TO 8 TO 12 KNOTS LATE THIS
MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON DIMINISHING TO 3 TO 5 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY THU MORNING. 32/EE
&&
.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL GULF WILL
WEAKEN AND SHIFT SOUTH TODAY IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVING EASTWARD OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND CENTRAL
GULF STATES TODAY AND TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME MOSTLY NORTH AND
BUILD LATE FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO A COLD FRONT
MOVING SOUTHWARD OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. A MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW
WILL DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE EAST. SEAS WILL BUILD TO AROUND 5 FEET WELL
OFFSHORE WITH THE STRONGER OFFSHORE FLOW LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY
SAT THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. 32/EE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE 85 68 90 66 86 / 30 20 20 10 05
PENSACOLA 85 71 89 68 87 / 20 20 20 10 05
DESTIN 83 72 87 70 85 / 10 20 20 10 05
EVERGREEN 88 66 93 63 85 / 30 30 20 10 05
WAYNESBORO 87 65 93 62 85 / 40 30 20 10 05
CAMDEN 88 65 92 62 83 / 30 40 20 10 05
CRESTVIEW 89 65 94 64 88 / 20 20 20 10 05
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
BUTLER...CLARKE...CONECUH...COVINGTON...CRENSHAW...
ESCAMBIA...LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...MONROE...UPPER
BALDWIN...UPPER MOBILE...WASHINGTON...WILCOX...
FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...
INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...INLAND SANTA ROSA...
MS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
GEORGE...STONE...
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
32/21
000
FXUS64 KMOB 221105 AAA
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
559 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
.ZONE UPDATE...WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED RAIN CHANCES ACROSS MOST
INLAND AREAS THIS MORNING. PRECIP TO THE WEST HAS FILLED IN QUICKER
THAN MOST OF THE GUIDANCE THIS MORNING. THIS TREND WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. FURTHER DEVELOPMENT CAN BE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. DENSE FOG MOSTLY EAST OF THE CONVECTION
WILL ERODE QUICKLY AS THE BETTER RAINFALL NEARS FROM THE WEST.
32/EE
&&
.SHORT TERM [TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT]...A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND MOST INLAND AREAS OF
SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND LOWER PARTS OF INLAND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING.
VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH MAIN UPPER TROF OVER THE LOWER
AND MID MS RIVER VALLEYS THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST
AND DAMPEN SLOWLY TODAY PROVIDING ENOUGH MID LEVEL FORCING OR LIFT
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP LATER THIS
MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON...INITIALLY DEVELOPING OVER INLAND AREAS
OF SE MS EARLY TODAY SHIFTING EAST ACROSS MOST INLAND AREAS OF THE
CWFA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. LATEST RADAR AND
SATELLITE LOOPS CONTINUE TO SHOW CONVECTION TO THE WEST WEAKENING AS
IT MOVES INTO MORE STABLE AIR OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA THIS
MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS CONVECTION A WELL DEFINED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
HAS MOVED ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA WHICH
WILL LIKELY STALL LATER THIS MORNING AND POSSIBLY BECOME A FOCUS FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS MORNING
AND THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT INLAND
AND CONVERGE NEAR THE SFC DUE TO A WITH PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW. THE
BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING AS MAIN UPPER TROF AXIS SHIFTS
FURTHER TO THE EAST OVER THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF
STATES. LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM THE COAST TO EXTREME NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE CWFA BEGIN TO MOISTURE EARLY TODAY WITH PWS CLIMBING
TO AROUND 1.7 INCHES BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOW LEVEL SHEAR
BECOMING MOSTLY UNIDIRECTIONAL BY THIS AFTERNOON. SFC BASED CAPES
CLIMB TO AROUND 1000 J/KG BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON INCREASING TO
AROUND 3200 J/KG BY EARLY THIS EVENING AS DRIER AIR ALOFT BEGINS TO
FILTER IN FROM THE WEST. AS A RESULT WITH CONTINUED FORCING IN THE
MID LEVELS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING AND BETTER INSTABILITY FORMING
LATER IN THE DAY WE STILL COULD SEE A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AND POSSIBLY OVERNIGHT WITH THE BEST
CHANCE OCCURRING DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. GUSTY STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS AND SMALL TO MEDIUM SIZE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THE
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY. AS FOR TEMPS WILL LEAN TOWARDS
THE WARMER MAV/MET GUIDANCE FOR MOST AREAS TODAY THOUGH UNDERCUT
THESE VALUES A DEGREE OR TWO MOSTLY TO THE WEST AND NORTH WHERE
BETTER RAIN CHANCES AND CLOUDS WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 80S INLAND AND IN THE LOWER
80S NEAR THE COAST. AS FOR LOWS TONIGHT WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE WARMER
MAV/MET GUIDANCE AND ADD A DEGREE OR TWO TO SOME AREAS NEAR THE
COAST AND TO THE EAST DUE TO CLOUDS AND BETTER MIXING IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER. 32/EE
THE WET MICROBURST RISK FOR TODAY IS MODERATE.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THURSDAY ON THE BASE OF A DEEPER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL MEANWHILE BE PUSHING SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. SHORT
RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATE AN AXIS OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL THERMAL
RIDGING ACROSS MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE
APPROACHING BOUNDARY THURSDAY...WITH 925 MB TEMPERATURES WARMING
BETWEEN 23-25 C ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 80S TO AS HIGH AS THE MID 90S
ACROSS THE CWFA. THESE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WHEN COMBINED WITH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S SHOULD RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE REGION...PARTICULARLY NEAR COASTAL AREAS WHERE MLCAPE
VALUES MAY RANGE BETWEEN 1500-2500 J/KG. THOUGH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
AND FORCING LOOKS TO REMAIN FAIRLY MEAGER...AFTERNOON HEATING AND
INSTABILITY MAY RESULT IN AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY. WE LEFT A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
DAY THURSDAY. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL MODERATE INSTABILITY...ANY STORM
THAT DEVELOPS COULD BE STRONG OR NEAR SEVERE LIMITS. IT CURRENTLY
APPEARS STORM CHANCES WILL DECREASE WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...
AND HAVE KEPT A DRY FORECAST INTACT FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT MAY BE SLIGHTLY COOLER ACROSS THE REGION. /21
.LONG TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]...A MUCH DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN ALOFT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY ON THE EASTERN
FRINGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BUILD FROM
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TO THE ARKLATEX REGION AND NORTHWARD INTO
THE UPPER MIDWESTERN STATES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MEANWHILE
CONTINUE TO BUILD FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SOUTHWARD TO THE GULF
COAST REGION. NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS OUR CWFA FRIDAY. THE SURFACE RIDGE SHOULD CONTINUE TO
BUILD SOUTHWARD FRIDAY NIGHT...AND LOOKS TO BRING A DRIER AIRMASS
SOUTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH IT. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LOWER DEWPOINTS SHOULD RESULT IN COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS THE
REGION. WE LOWERED MIN TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ACROSS MOST
LOCATIONS...WITH MANY INLAND AREAS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 50S
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
DRY WEATHER SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT CONTINUES TO THE NORTHEAST OF
UPPER RIDGING EXTENDING ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. LITTLE
CHANGE IN DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
WITH MOST LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO RANGE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S BOTH
DAYS. NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING LOOKS TO EXPAND AT LEAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF
OF MEXICO THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...SO NO RAIN IS IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES REMAIN TRENDED CLOSE TO MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE. /21
&&
.AVIATION [12Z ISSUANCE]...IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT
14Z THIS MORNING THEN VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT 09Z THU
FOLLOWED BY MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 12Z FRI. LOW STATUS AND
FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 14Z THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY SCT TO
BKN LOW TO MID CLOUDS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT THEN MORE FOG AND LOW
STRATUS BETWEEN 09 AND 12Z THU. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BECOME BETTER DEVELOPED OVER MOST TERMINAL SITES BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. GUSTY STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING WILL BE LIKELY WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTH
AT 3 TO 5 KNOTS EARLY TODAY INCREASING TO 8 TO 12 KNOTS LATE THIS
MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON DIMINISHING TO 3 TO 5 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY THU MORNING. 32/EE
&&
.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL GULF WILL
WEAKEN AND SHIFT SOUTH TODAY IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVING EASTWARD OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND CENTRAL
GULF STATES TODAY AND TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME MOSTLY NORTH AND
BUILD LATE FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO A COLD FRONT
MOVING SOUTHWARD OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. A MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW
WILL DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE EAST. SEAS WILL BUILD TO AROUND 5 FEET WELL
OFFSHORE WITH THE STRONGER OFFSHORE FLOW LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY
SAT THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. 32/EE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE 85 68 90 66 86 / 30 20 20 10 05
PENSACOLA 85 71 89 68 87 / 20 20 20 10 05
DESTIN 83 72 87 70 85 / 10 20 20 10 05
EVERGREEN 88 66 93 63 85 / 30 30 20 10 05
WAYNESBORO 87 65 93 62 85 / 40 30 20 10 05
CAMDEN 88 65 92 62 83 / 30 40 20 10 05
CRESTVIEW 89 65 94 64 88 / 20 20 20 10 05
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
BUTLER...CLARKE...CONECUH...COVINGTON...CRENSHAW...
ESCAMBIA...LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...MONROE...UPPER
BALDWIN...UPPER MOBILE...WASHINGTON...WILCOX...
FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...
INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...INLAND SANTA ROSA...
MS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
GEORGE...STONE...
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
32/21
000
FXUS64 KMOB 220955
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
455 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
.SHORT TERM [TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT]...A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND MOST INLAND AREAS OF
SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND LOWER PARTS OF INLAND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING.
VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH MAIN UPPER TROF OVER THE LOWER
AND MID MS RIVER VALLEYS THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST
AND DAMPEN SLOWLY TODAY PROVIDING ENOUGH MID LEVEL FORCING OR LIFT
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP LATER THIS
MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON...INITIALLY DEVELOPING OVER INLAND AREAS
OF SE MS EARLY TODAY SHIFTING EAST ACROSS MOST INLAND AREAS OF THE
CWFA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. LATEST RADAR AND
SATELLITE LOOPS CONTINUE TO SHOW CONVECTION TO THE WEST WEAKENING AS
IT MOVES INTO MORE STABLE AIR OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA THIS
MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS CONVECTION A WELL DEFINED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
HAS MOVED ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA WHICH
WILL LIKELY STALL LATER THIS MORNING AND POSSIBLY BECOME A FOCUS FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS MORNING
AND THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT INLAND
AND CONVERGE NEAR THE SFC DUE TO A WITH PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW. THE
BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING AS MAIN UPPER TROF AXIS SHIFTS
FURTHER TO THE EAST OVER THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF
STATES. LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM THE COAST TO EXTREME NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE CWFA BEGIN TO MOISTURE EARLY TODAY WITH PWS CLIMBING
TO AROUND 1.7 INCHES BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOW LEVEL SHEAR
BECOMING MOSTLY UNIDIRECTIONAL BY THIS AFTERNOON. SFC BASED CAPES
CLIMB TO AROUND 1000 J/KG BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON INCREASING TO
AROUND 3200 J/KG BY EARLY THIS EVENING AS DRIER AIR ALOFT BEGINS TO
FILTER IN FROM THE WEST. AS A RESULT WITH CONTINUED FORCING IN THE
MID LEVELS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING AND BETTER INSTABILITY FORMING
LATER IN THE DAY WE STILL COULD SEE A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AND POSSIBLY OVERNIGHT WITH THE BEST
CHANCE OCCURRING DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. GUSTY STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS AND SMALL TO MEDIUM SIZE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THE
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY. AS FOR TEMPS WILL LEAN TOWARDS
THE WARMER MAV/MET GUIDANCE FOR MOST AREAS TODAY THOUGH UNDERCUT
THESE VALUES A DEGREE OR TWO MOSTLY TO THE WEST AND NORTH WHERE
BETTER RAIN CHANCES AND CLOUDS WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 80S INLAND AND IN THE LOWER
80S NEAR THE COAST. AS FOR LOWS TONIGHT WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE WARMER
MAV/MET GUIDANCE AND ADD A DEGREE OR TWO TO SOME AREAS NEAR THE
COAST AND TO THE EAST DUE TO CLOUDS AND BETTER MIXING IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER. 32/EE
THE WET MICROBURST RISK FOR TODAY IS MODERATE.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THURSDAY ON THE BASE OF A DEEPER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL MEANWHILE BE PUSHING SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. SHORT
RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATE AN AXIS OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL THERMAL
RIDGING ACROSS MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE
APPROACHING BOUNDARY THURSDAY...WITH 925 MB TEMPERATURES WARMING
BETWEEN 23-25 C ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 80S TO AS HIGH AS THE MID 90S
ACROSS THE CWFA. THESE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WHEN COMBINED WITH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S SHOULD RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE REGION...PARTICULARLY NEAR COASTAL AREAS WHERE MLCAPE
VALUES MAY RANGE BETWEEN 1500-2500 J/KG. THOUGH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
AND FORCING LOOKS TO REMAIN FAIRLY MEAGER...AFTERNOON HEATING AND
INSTABILITY MAY RESULT IN AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY. WE LEFT A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
DAY THURSDAY. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL MODERATE INSTABILITY...ANY STORM
THAT DEVELOPS COULD BE STRONG OR NEAR SEVERE LIMITS. IT CURRENTLY
APPEARS STORM CHANCES WILL DECREASE WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...
AND HAVE KEPT A DRY FORECAST INTACT FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT MAY BE SLIGHTLY COOLER ACROSS THE REGION. /21
.LONG TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]...A MUCH DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN ALOFT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY ON THE EASTERN
FRINGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BUILD FROM
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TO THE ARKLATEX REGION AND NORTHWARD INTO
THE UPPER MIDWESTERN STATES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MEANWHILE
CONTINUE TO BUILD FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SOUTHWARD TO THE GULF
COAST REGION. NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS OUR CWFA FRIDAY. THE SURFACE RIDGE SHOULD CONTINUE TO
BUILD SOUTHWARD FRIDAY NIGHT...AND LOOKS TO BRING A DRIER AIRMASS
SOUTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH IT. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LOWER DEWPOINTS SHOULD RESULT IN COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS THE
REGION. WE LOWERED MIN TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ACROSS MOST
LOCATIONS...WITH MANY INLAND AREAS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 50S
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
DRY WEATHER SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT CONTINUES TO THE NORTHEAST OF
UPPER RIDGING EXTENDING ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. LITTLE
CHANGE IN DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
WITH MOST LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO RANGE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S BOTH
DAYS. NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING LOOKS TO EXPAND AT LEAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF
OF MEXICO THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...SO NO RAIN IS IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES REMAIN TRENDED CLOSE TO MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE. /21
&&
.AVIATION [12Z ISSUANCE]...IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT
14Z THIS MORNING THEN VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT 09Z THU
FOLLOWED BY MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 12Z FRI. LOW STATUS AND
FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 14Z THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY SCT TO
BKN LOW TO MID CLOUDS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT THEN MORE FOG AND LOW
STRATUS BETWEEN 09 AND 12Z THU. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BECOME BETTER DEVELOPED OVER MOST TERMINAL SITES BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. GUSTY STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING WILL BE LIKELY WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTH
AT 3 TO 5 KNOTS EARLY TODAY INCREASING TO 8 TO 12 KNOTS LATE THIS
MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON DIMINISHING TO 3 TO 5 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY THU MORNING. 32/EE
&&
.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL GULF WILL
WEAKEN AND SHIFT SOUTH TODAY IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVING EASTWARD OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND CENTRAL
GULF STATES TODAY AND TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME MOSTLY NORTH AND
BUILD LATE FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO A COLD FRONT
MOVING SOUTHWARD OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. A MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW
WILL DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE EAST. SEAS WILL BUILD TO AROUND 5 FEET WELL
OFFSHORE WITH THE STRONGER OFFSHORE FLOW LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY
SAT THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. 32/EE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE 85 68 90 66 86 / 30 20 20 10 05
PENSACOLA 85 71 89 68 87 / 20 20 20 10 05
DESTIN 83 72 87 70 85 / 10 20 20 10 05
EVERGREEN 88 66 93 63 85 / 30 30 20 10 05
WAYNESBORO 87 65 93 62 85 / 40 30 20 10 05
CAMDEN 88 65 92 62 83 / 30 40 20 10 05
CRESTVIEW 89 65 94 64 88 / 20 20 20 10 05
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
BUTLER...CLARKE...CONECUH...COVINGTON...CRENSHAW...
ESCAMBIA...LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...MONROE...UPPER
BALDWIN...UPPER MOBILE...WASHINGTON...WILCOX...
FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...
INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...INLAND SANTA ROSA...
MS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
GEORGE...STONE...
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
32/21
000
FXUS64 KMOB 220413 AAC
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1113 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.AVIATION (06Z ISSUANCE)...SIMILAR THINKING AS BEFORE EXCEPT HAVE
CONTINUED WITH A TEMPO GROUP FOR BFM FOR A BROKEN MVFR CEILING NEAR
1500 FT WHICH HAS BEEN OCCURRING ON AND OFF FOR SEVERAL HOURS. HAVE
ALSO ADDED A TEMPO GROUP AT MOB FROM 06-09Z FOR MVFR CONDITIONS IN
LIGHT FOG. OTHERWISE...HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO THE REMAINDER OF THE
TAF PERIOD WITH PREVAILING LIGHT FOG DEVELOPING BY 09Z WITH
SCATTERED CLOUDS NEAR 600-900 FT. A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE AND MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A TEMPO GROUP FROM 09-13Z FOR IFR TO
MVFR CONDITIONS IN FOG/CEILING FROM 600-1200 FT AT THE TAF SITES.
HAVE BEEN MONITORING UPSTREAM CONVECTION APPROACHING THE AREA AND
USING LOCAL WRF AND WRF FROM NSSL/SPC...MODEL GFS/RUC SOUNDINGS...AS
WELL AS LOCAL TIMING TOOLS...WILL HAVE VCSH AT 14Z FOR MOB/BFM THEN
VCTS BY 16Z. /29
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE 67 86 68 88 67 / 05 20 30 30 10
PENSACOLA 69 86 71 85 69 / 05 10 20 30 10
DESTIN 69 82 72 80 71 / 05 10 20 30 10
EVERGREEN 64 91 66 89 65 / 05 20 40 30 10
WAYNESBORO 65 86 64 88 63 / 20 40 30 20 10
CAMDEN 64 89 64 88 63 / 10 30 40 20 10
CRESTVIEW 63 91 67 89 67 / 05 10 30 30 10
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMOB 212345 AAB
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
644 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.AVIATION (00Z ISSUANCE)...VFR CONDITIONS BEGIN THE TAF PERIOD AND
CONTINUE UNTIL WILL HAVE LIGHT FOG DEVELOPING BY 09Z WITH SCATTERED
CLOUDS NEAR 600-900 FT. HAVE USED A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE AND MODEL
GUIDANCE TO SUPPORT A TEMPO GROUP FROM 09-13Z FOR IFR CONDITIONS IN
FOG AND A CEILING FROM 600-900 FT AT MOB...WITH SIMILAR REASONING
FOR IFR CONDITIONS AT BFM THOUGH WITH LESS RESTRICTION TO
VISIBILITY...AND MVFR CONDITIONS AT PNS. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL BY
14Z THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. /29
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE 67 86 68 88 67 / 05 20 30 30 10
PENSACOLA 69 86 71 85 69 / 05 10 20 30 10
DESTIN 69 82 72 80 71 / 05 10 20 30 10
EVERGREEN 64 91 66 89 65 / 05 20 40 30 10
WAYNESBORO 65 86 64 88 63 / 20 40 30 20 10
CAMDEN 64 89 64 88 63 / 10 30 40 20 10
CRESTVIEW 63 91 67 89 67 / 05 10 30 30 10
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMOB 212212 AAA
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
512 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED TO ADJUST SKY COVER AND QPF OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND ALSO OVER MOST
OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY. HAVE MADE OTHER ADJUSTMENTS TO FOG TONIGHT
AND RECALCULATED FIRE WEATHER DERIVED GRIDS THROUGH THURSDAY. UPDATE
OUT SOON. /29
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE 67 86 68 88 67 / 05 20 30 30 10
PENSACOLA 69 86 71 85 69 / 05 10 20 30 10
DESTIN 69 82 72 80 71 / 05 10 20 30 10
EVERGREEN 64 91 66 89 65 / 05 20 40 30 10
WAYNESBORO 65 86 64 88 63 / 20 40 30 20 10
CAMDEN 64 89 64 88 63 / 10 30 40 20 10
CRESTVIEW 63 91 67 89 67 / 05 10 30 30 10
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMOB 212036
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
336 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...FOR TONIGHT THROUGH
TOMORROW...FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING OUT OF THE PLAINS STATES WILL
MOVE EAST TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...WITH A PRE-FRONTAL SFC TROF MOVING EAST ACROSS OUR FCST
AREA. THIS PRE-FRONTAL TROF...COMBINED WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
SWINGING EAST ACROSS THE REGION WILL ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. POPS BEGIN TO
INCREASE OVER EXTREME WESTERN ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...THEN
30-40 POPS OVER WESTERN HALF OF FCST AREA (GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST
OF I-65 ON WEDNESDAY). WITH THE EXPECTED SCATTERED NATURE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS...QPF VALUES GENERALLY IN THE QUARTER INCH TO ONE HALF
INCH RANGE...BUT LOCALIZED AMOUNTS UP TO 1 INCH POSSIBLE. THE
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION MOVING IN FROM THE WEST IS EXPECTED TO BE
CONTINUING OVER SE MS AND SW AL EARLY MORNING WEDNESDAY...WITH
ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER LIKELY INHIBITING STRONGER DESTABILIZATION
IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE STORMS. ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO SLOWLY SPREAD
EWD/SEWD DURING THE DAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS
PRODUCING WET MICRO-BURSTS OR MARGINAL HAIL. WEAKENING FLOW
ALOFT/VERTICAL SHEAR...AND CONTINUED ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER... IS
EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR CLIMO...LOWER 60S INLAND AND MID/UPPER 60S
COASTAL. DAYTIME HIGHS WEDNESDAY AT OR JUST ABOVE CLIMO...UPPER 80S
AND LOWER 90S. 12/DS
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE
SWINGING AROUND THE BASE OF AN OPENING UPPER LOW MOVING OVER THE
GREAT LAKES PUSHES A WEAK FRONT ACROSS THE FA...TO THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT STALLS ALONG THE GULF COAST WITH
SOME DRYING OUT OVER NORTHERN REGIONS OF THE FA. THE SURFACE RIDGE
STRETCHING WEST OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEX BREAKS DOWN...WITH PART
OF THE HIGH SHIFTING WEST...TO OVER THE NW-ERN GULF OF MEX.
OTHERWISE...LITTLE AIRMASS EXCHANGE NOTICED...AND TEMPS ABOVE
SEASONAL.
THURSDAY...THURSDAY NIGHT...MORE UPPER ENERGY MOVES INTO THE GREAT
LAKES UPPER TROUGH THURSDAY...ORGANIZING THE UPPER TROUGH WHILE
ALLOWING SOME SOUTHWARD DIGGING. THIS IS EXPECTED TO PUSH A STRONG
FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ...TO NEAR THE GULF COAST BY SUNRISE FRIDAY.
THE FIRST WEAK FRONT DOESN`T LOOK TO TEMPER THE FORMATION OF A GULF
BREEZE WEDNESDAY...SO HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF ABOVE GUIDANCE POPS
FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA. TEMPS AROUND TO A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL
FOR THE TWO PERIODS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY ON)...HAVEN`T DONE ANYTHING TO THE
EXTENDED...OTHER THAN TO BLEND WITH THE SHORT TERM. WRITE-UP FROM
PREVIOUS SHIFT FOLLOWS.
**********************************************************************
A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION LATE
THIS WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS FROM MEXICO AND NORTHWARD
TOWARD THE PLAINS AND MIDWESTERN STATES. WE LEFT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST ACROSS MOST
LOCATIONS THURSDAY AS THERE WILL BE SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION...NOT TO MENTION THE POTENTIAL OF CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY. THE POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY REGIONS WILL FINALLY PUSH TOWARD THE
EAST COAST LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WHILE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
WILL GRADUALLY BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND
TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MUCH DRIER AIR IN THE DEEP LAYERS
SHOULD SPREAD SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE GULF COAST IN THE WAKE OF THE
PASSING TROUGH FRIDAY...WHILE A SURFACE COLD FRONT ALSO GETS A PUSH
SOUTHWARD INTO OUR REGION LATE FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. A DRIER SURFACE
AIRMASS SHOULD ARRIVE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...WHICH MAY
PUSH OUR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING LOWS BACK BELOW NORMAL. WE LOWERED
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES A BIT ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS SATURDAY MORNING. A
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND...BEFORE
THE UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDS EASTWARD TOWARD THE GULF COAST REGION
EARLY NEXT WEEK. A DRY FORECAST CONTINUES THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WITH SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ALSO EXPECTED THROUGH
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. /21
&&
.AVIATION...(22/00Z ISSUANCE)...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. LIGHT FOG A POSSIBILITY LATE TONIGHT...WITH
INCREASED CHANCES OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS TOWARD DAYBREAK. VSBYS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE WITH REGARD
TO ANY LINGERING FOG AFTER SUNRISE WEDNESDAY...BUT POSSIBLE MVFR
CIGS CONTINUE IN AND AROUND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
12/DS
&&
.MARINE...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND
WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN WEAKEN SLIGHTLY THURSDAY
INTO EARLY FRIDAY IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTH AND MOVING INTO THE AREA WHILE DISSIPATING. A LIGHT TO
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHEST WINDS AND LARGEST SEAS DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS THROUGH THURSDAY DUE TO A DEVELOPING SEABREEZE
EACH AFTERNOON. A MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE OF
A COLD FRONT WHICH MOVES ACROSS THE MARINE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
A MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. 12/DS
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING WEST OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO REMAINS
INTACT. THIS RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...BRINGING
MORE VARIABLE FLOW IN THE MIXING LAYER. A WEAK FRONT CROSSING THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING NORTHERLY FLOW. ANOTHER FRONT CROSSING THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BRING SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR FOR FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS...OVERNIGHT FOG DEVELOPMENT LIKELY THE NEXT
TWO NIGHTS. PATCHES TO AREAS OF FOG WITH VISIBILITIES BELOW 1 STATUTE MILE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE 67 86 68 88 67 / 05 20 30 30 10
PENSACOLA 69 86 71 85 69 / 05 10 20 30 10
DESTIN 69 82 72 80 71 / 05 10 20 30 10
EVERGREEN 64 91 66 89 65 / 05 20 40 30 10
WAYNESBORO 65 86 64 88 63 / 20 40 30 20 10
CAMDEN 64 89 64 88 63 / 10 30 40 20 10
CRESTVIEW 63 91 67 89 67 / 05 10 30 30 10
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
12/21/16
000
FXUS64 KMOB 211034
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
534 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.SHORT TERM [TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT]...AREA OBSERVATIONS SHOW
DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED AND SPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND INLAND PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE. SO FAR LOCATIONS CLOSER TO THE COAST ARE MOSTLY REPORTING
A LOW STRATUS DECK...BUT PATCHY DENSE FOG MAY BE FORMING ACROSS AT
LEAST NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL ZONES. DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN
EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CDT.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE CWFA THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON THEN WEAKEN FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT AND EARLY WED IN
RESPONSE TO A DEEP TROF OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING EASTWARD OVER TX ALONG
WITH A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROFS TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD EAST OF THE
MAIN TROF. FOR TODAY EXPECT ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY DAY FOLLOWED BY
INCREASING CLOUDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT AS BETTER
MOISTURE ALOFT SPREADS EAST OF THE MS RIVER AND OVER THE CENTRAL GULF
STATES. AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATER TODAY AND
OVERNIGHT BETTER MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT
NORTHWARD WITH DEWPTS REACHING THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 ALONG THE
COAST BY EARLY WED MORNING. THIS PATTERN WILL HELP THE DEVELOPMENT OF
MORE LOW STATUS AND FOG AGAIN OVERNIGHT AND EARLY WED. WITH BETTER
MIXING ALSO ANTICIPATED FOG MADE REMAIN MORE PATCHY OVERNIGHT
COMPARED TO THIS MORNING. AS FOR TEMPS WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE WARMER
MAV GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY...LOWER 90S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WILL GO A TAD
HIGHER IN SOME AREAS TO THE EAST INLAND FROM THE COAST DUE TO BETTER
SUNSHINE AND SUBSIDENCE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE LAYERS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE. WENT A TAD COOLER NEAR THE COAST ALSO DUE TO THE COOLER
NEAR SHORE WATERS AND PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW. NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S OVER MOST OF SE MS AND THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70
ALONG THE COAST. 32/EE
THE WET MICROBURST RISK FOR TODAY IS LOW.
A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWESTERN U.S. AND TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS ON THE BASE OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL TRANSLATE TOWARD THE TENNESSEE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY REGIONS WEDNESDAY MORNING...BEFORE WEAKENING SOMEWHAT AS
IT MOVES TOWARD EASTERN MISSISSIPPI AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF ALABAMA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SHORT RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT WITH SHOWING AN INCREASE IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND LIFT
ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN
AND NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA. WE WILL CONTINUE TO TREND POPS
UPWARD TOWARD THE LOW END CHANCE CATEGORY...I.E. 30-40 PERCENT...
ACROSS LOCATIONS GENERALLY WEST OF INTERSTATE 65 WEDNESDAY...WITH
ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION. THE BEST INSTABILITY [MLCAPES 1500-2000 J/KG] LOOKS TO BE
ORIENTED ALONG AN AXIS FROM SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI THROUGH INTERIOR
SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...THOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS FAIRLY MEAGER. WE
WILL WATCH FOR A FEW STRONG OR PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM
ACROSS THIS REGION WEDNESDAY...BUT THE OVERALL PROBABILITY OF SEVERE
WEATHER CURRENTLY LOOKS LOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY BE A COUPLE OF
DEGREES COOLER WITH THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION. WE GENERALLY TRENDED THE HIGH TEMPERATURE
FORECAST CLOSE TO THE WARMEST GUIDANCE NUMBERS WEDNESDAY.
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE TOWARD EASTERN ALABAMA/WESTERN
GEORGIA WEDNESDAY EVENING. WE LEFT A LINGERING LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE BEST
COVERAGE INDICATED OVER INTERIOR SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA. COVERAGE
SHOULD DIMINISH LATE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD TREND
CLOSE TO RECENT OBSERVED READINGS. /21
.LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT
SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS FROM MEXICO AND NORTHWARD TOWARD THE PLAINS AND
MIDWESTERN STATES. WE LEFT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS THURSDAY AS
THERE WILL BE SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...NOT
TO MENTION THE POTENTIAL OF CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARY. THE POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO
VALLEY REGIONS WILL FINALLY PUSH TOWARD THE EAST COAST LATE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY...WHILE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY BUILD EASTWARD
INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
MUCH DRIER AIR IN THE DEEP LAYERS SHOULD SPREAD SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE
GULF COAST IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING TROUGH FRIDAY...WHILE A SURFACE
COLD FRONT ALSO GETS A PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO OUR REGION LATE
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. A DRIER SURFACE AIRMASS SHOULD ARRIVE IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...WHICH MAY PUSH OUR EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING LOWS BACK BELOW NORMAL. WE LOWERED MINIMUM TEMPERATURES A BIT
ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS SATURDAY MORNING. A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN
SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND...BEFORE THE UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY
BUILDS EASTWARD TOWARD THE GULF COAST REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. A DRY
FORECAST CONTINUES THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH SEASONABLY
WARM TEMPERATURES ALSO EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.
/21
&&
.AVIATION [12Z ISSUANCE]...IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT 14Z
THIS MORNING THEN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT 04Z WED THEN MVFR TO
IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 12Z WED. LOW STATUS AND FOG WITH VISIBILITIES
TO BELOW 1/2 OF A MILE AT TIMES THIS MORNING REDEVELOPING AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY WED MORNING. A FEW LOW TO MID CLOUDS EARLY TODAY
INCREASING BY LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT 3
TO 6 KNOTS EARLY TODAY INCREASING TO 8 TO 12 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING LOWERING TO 3 TO 6 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. 32/EE
&&
.MARINE...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE EASTERN GULF AND WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH MIDWEEK THEN WEAKEN
LATE IN THE WEEK IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE NORTH. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS THROUGH THURSDAY DUE TO A DEVELOPING SEABREEZE EACH
AFTERNOON. A MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE OF A
COLD FRONT WHICH MOVES ACROSS THE MARINE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. A
MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. SEAS UP TO 5 FEET WELL
OFFSHORE CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT LATE FRI
THROUGH EARLY SAT. BAY AND INLAND WATERS WILL BE CHOPPY TO ROUGH IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
32/EE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE 89 67 86 68 87 / 05 05 30 20 30
PENSACOLA 87 69 86 70 85 / 05 05 10 20 30
DESTIN 84 71 83 71 81 / 10 05 10 20 30
EVERGREEN 92 63 89 66 90 / 10 05 20 30 30
WAYNESBORO 90 65 86 65 89 / 10 10 40 20 20
CAMDEN 92 63 87 65 89 / 10 10 30 30 20
CRESTVIEW 93 61 90 66 90 / 10 10 20 20 30
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
BUTLER...CLARKE...CONECUH...COVINGTON...CRENSHAW...
ESCAMBIA...LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...MONROE...UPPER
BALDWIN...UPPER MOBILE...WILCOX...
FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...
INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...INLAND SANTA ROSA...
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
32/21
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