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000
FXUS64 KMOB 041007
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
507 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM [INDEPENDENCE DAY AND NIGHT]...EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY AND MODEL 500 MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
PERSISTENT MID LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN
CONUS EARLY THIS MORNING...WHILE AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STRETCHED FROM CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OK/AR AND NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH
THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEY REGION. REGIONAL
RADAR...SATELLITE...AND LIGHTNING DATA SHOWED AN ORGANIZING COMPLEX
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHING FROM SOUTHERN AR THROUGH
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF MS/AL WITHIN A REGION OF ENHANCED DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE AND ASCENT ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS EARLY THIS MORNING. OUR
FORECAST AREA REMAINS ON THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE MOIST WESTERLY
FLOW REGIME EARLY THIS MORNING...AND ISOLATED BANDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING NEAR THE COAST AS OF 4 AM CDT. PARTLY
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...WITH VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS
OTHERWISE PREVAILED ACROSS THE AREA WITH EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES
HOLDING INTO THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES.

SHORT RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH DEEPENING A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE VICINITY OF THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
REGION TODAY...WHILE ENHANCED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND LIFT CONTINUES
TO SPREAD ACROSS MS INTO WESTERN AND NORTHERN AL IN ADVANCE OF THIS
FEATURE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WE EXPECT A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA
TODAY...MAINLY SCATTERED THIS MORNING...BUT PERHAPS BECOMING MORE
NUMEROUS OVER SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND INTERIOR SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL AL BY THIS AFTERNOON WHERE RICH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
/PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 1.75 AND 2 INCHES/ WILL BE
LOCATED WITHIN THE MORE FAVORED REGION OF LIFT IN ADVANCE OF THE
DEEPENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ALSO ALONG POTENTIAL OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES AHEAD OF THE MCS TO THE NORTH AND THE APPROACHING
SEABREEZE FROM THE SOUTH. IN TERMS OF POPS...WE GENERALLY HAVE 30-40
PERCENT COVERAGE INDICATED EVERYWHERE THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY AN
INCREASE TO LIKELY /60-70 PERCENT/ COVERAGE OVER INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
MS AND SOUTHWEST AL AFTER 18Z...WITH 40-50 PERCENT COVERAGE THIS
AFTERNOON CLOSER TO THE COAST. AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE CWFA TODAY WITH MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG...AND
OUR LOCAL WET MICROBURST CHECKLIST DOES INDICATE A MODERATE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH A FEW OF
THE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. SMALL HAIL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER
STORMS THAT DEVELOP.

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MS AND SOUTHWEST AL TONIGHT. ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND
INCREASED LIFT WITH THIS FEATURE WILL BRING A CONTINUED GOOD CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST MS AND INTERIOR SOUTHWEST AL
WHERE POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO LIKELY COVERAGE. CONTINUED
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 1.75 AND 2 INCHES WILL BRING AN
ONGOING POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLY LOCALIZED
FLOODING OVER INTERIOR AREAS TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY IF CONVECTION
REPEATEDLY TRAINS OVER SOME AREAS. /21

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS MODERATE.

[SUNDAY AND MONDAY]...THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM BEFORE SLIDING NORTHEAST
EARLY IN THE WEEK. THE AREA STAYS ON THE EDGE OF RIDGING DOWN AT THE
SURFACE WHICH WILL KEEP THE MOISTURE PUMPING INTO THE REGION. AS THE
TAIL END OF THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY...MOST MODELS ARE NOW
SHOWING IT CLOSING IT OFF DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH THIS
FEATURE STAYS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA...ACROSS TN AND NORTHERN AL...
IT WILL ENHANCE RAIN CHANCES DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. FOR NOW...
LEANING TOWARD BEST RAIN CHANCES REMAINING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE CWA WITH 50 TO 60 PERCENT POPS. EVEN THOUGH THE TROUGH
CONTINUES TO SLIDE NORTHEAST MONDAY...CWA WILL REMAIN IN A FAVORABLE
AREA FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH 30 TO 40 PERCENT POPS.

HEAT WILL BE SLIGHTLY SUPPRESSED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH RAIN AND
CLOUD COVER IN THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO HIT UPPER
80S ON SUNDAY...WITH UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S ON MONDAY. OVERNIGHT...
TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE LOW 70S INLAND AND HOVER IN THE
UPPER 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE. 07/MB

.LONG TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY]...AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND SLIP OFF TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION BY MID WEEK.
DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF A RIDGE AT THE SFC AND MID LEVELS...A FEW
IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION IN CONJUNCTION WITH HIGHER
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS IN
THE FORECAST EACH AFTERNOON. EXPECTING CONVECTION TO PREDOMINANTLY
BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES TREND WARMER THROUGH THE WEEK AS RIDGING CONTINUES TO
INFLUENCE THE AREA. HIGHS IN THE MID 90S EXPECTED LATE IN THE WORK
WEEK. HEAT INDICES AT OR JUST ABOVE THE 100 MARK RE-ENTER THE
FORECAST BY MID WEEK. OVERNIGHT MUGGINESS AND TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
TO SOUND LIKE A BROKEN RECORD WITH LOW 70S INLAND AND UPPER 70S
ACROSS THE BEACHES AND COASTAL COMMUNITIES EACH NIGHT. 07/MB

&&

.AVIATION...04.12Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION...A FEW VERY PATCHY
REGIONS OF MVFR CIGS/FOG ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...BUT VFR
CONDITIONS ARE OTHERWISE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WITH BROKEN MAINLY MID
TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUD DECKS.  EXPECT SHRA/TSRA TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE TODAY AND TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST MS AND
INTERIOR SOUTHWEST AL. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE LOCALIZED IN
AND NEAR CONVECTION. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 5-10 KNOTS WILL
GENERALLY PREVAIL. /21

&&

.MARINE...A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW PATTERN
WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE MARINE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
AS A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO STRETCH FROM THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC TO THE CENTRAL GULF. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT
SHOULD DECREASE IN COVERAGE DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE LOCALLY HIGHER NEAR STORMS THAT
DEVELOP...BUT LOW SEAS ARE OTHERWISE EXPECTED. /21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      89  73  86  72  88 /  50  50  50  30  30
PENSACOLA   90  75  85  73  88 /  40  40  40  30  40
DESTIN      89  77  86  77  89 /  30  40  40  30  40
EVERGREEN   89  71  86  70  88 /  60  60  60  40  40
WAYNESBORO  89  70  87  69  89 /  60  70  60  40  40
CAMDEN      89  70  85  70  87 /  70  70  60  40  40
CRESTVIEW   92  71  87  71  88 /  40  50  50  40  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMOB 041007
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
507 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM [INDEPENDENCE DAY AND NIGHT]...EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY AND MODEL 500 MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
PERSISTENT MID LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN
CONUS EARLY THIS MORNING...WHILE AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STRETCHED FROM CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OK/AR AND NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH
THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEY REGION. REGIONAL
RADAR...SATELLITE...AND LIGHTNING DATA SHOWED AN ORGANIZING COMPLEX
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHING FROM SOUTHERN AR THROUGH
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF MS/AL WITHIN A REGION OF ENHANCED DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE AND ASCENT ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS EARLY THIS MORNING. OUR
FORECAST AREA REMAINS ON THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE MOIST WESTERLY
FLOW REGIME EARLY THIS MORNING...AND ISOLATED BANDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING NEAR THE COAST AS OF 4 AM CDT. PARTLY
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...WITH VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS
OTHERWISE PREVAILED ACROSS THE AREA WITH EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES
HOLDING INTO THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES.

SHORT RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH DEEPENING A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE VICINITY OF THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
REGION TODAY...WHILE ENHANCED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND LIFT CONTINUES
TO SPREAD ACROSS MS INTO WESTERN AND NORTHERN AL IN ADVANCE OF THIS
FEATURE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WE EXPECT A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA
TODAY...MAINLY SCATTERED THIS MORNING...BUT PERHAPS BECOMING MORE
NUMEROUS OVER SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND INTERIOR SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL AL BY THIS AFTERNOON WHERE RICH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
/PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 1.75 AND 2 INCHES/ WILL BE
LOCATED WITHIN THE MORE FAVORED REGION OF LIFT IN ADVANCE OF THE
DEEPENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ALSO ALONG POTENTIAL OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES AHEAD OF THE MCS TO THE NORTH AND THE APPROACHING
SEABREEZE FROM THE SOUTH. IN TERMS OF POPS...WE GENERALLY HAVE 30-40
PERCENT COVERAGE INDICATED EVERYWHERE THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY AN
INCREASE TO LIKELY /60-70 PERCENT/ COVERAGE OVER INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
MS AND SOUTHWEST AL AFTER 18Z...WITH 40-50 PERCENT COVERAGE THIS
AFTERNOON CLOSER TO THE COAST. AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE CWFA TODAY WITH MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG...AND
OUR LOCAL WET MICROBURST CHECKLIST DOES INDICATE A MODERATE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH A FEW OF
THE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. SMALL HAIL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER
STORMS THAT DEVELOP.

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MS AND SOUTHWEST AL TONIGHT. ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND
INCREASED LIFT WITH THIS FEATURE WILL BRING A CONTINUED GOOD CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST MS AND INTERIOR SOUTHWEST AL
WHERE POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO LIKELY COVERAGE. CONTINUED
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 1.75 AND 2 INCHES WILL BRING AN
ONGOING POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLY LOCALIZED
FLOODING OVER INTERIOR AREAS TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY IF CONVECTION
REPEATEDLY TRAINS OVER SOME AREAS. /21

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS MODERATE.

[SUNDAY AND MONDAY]...THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM BEFORE SLIDING NORTHEAST
EARLY IN THE WEEK. THE AREA STAYS ON THE EDGE OF RIDGING DOWN AT THE
SURFACE WHICH WILL KEEP THE MOISTURE PUMPING INTO THE REGION. AS THE
TAIL END OF THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY...MOST MODELS ARE NOW
SHOWING IT CLOSING IT OFF DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH THIS
FEATURE STAYS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA...ACROSS TN AND NORTHERN AL...
IT WILL ENHANCE RAIN CHANCES DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. FOR NOW...
LEANING TOWARD BEST RAIN CHANCES REMAINING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE CWA WITH 50 TO 60 PERCENT POPS. EVEN THOUGH THE TROUGH
CONTINUES TO SLIDE NORTHEAST MONDAY...CWA WILL REMAIN IN A FAVORABLE
AREA FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH 30 TO 40 PERCENT POPS.

HEAT WILL BE SLIGHTLY SUPPRESSED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH RAIN AND
CLOUD COVER IN THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO HIT UPPER
80S ON SUNDAY...WITH UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S ON MONDAY. OVERNIGHT...
TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE LOW 70S INLAND AND HOVER IN THE
UPPER 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE. 07/MB

.LONG TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY]...AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND SLIP OFF TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION BY MID WEEK.
DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF A RIDGE AT THE SFC AND MID LEVELS...A FEW
IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION IN CONJUNCTION WITH HIGHER
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS IN
THE FORECAST EACH AFTERNOON. EXPECTING CONVECTION TO PREDOMINANTLY
BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES TREND WARMER THROUGH THE WEEK AS RIDGING CONTINUES TO
INFLUENCE THE AREA. HIGHS IN THE MID 90S EXPECTED LATE IN THE WORK
WEEK. HEAT INDICES AT OR JUST ABOVE THE 100 MARK RE-ENTER THE
FORECAST BY MID WEEK. OVERNIGHT MUGGINESS AND TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
TO SOUND LIKE A BROKEN RECORD WITH LOW 70S INLAND AND UPPER 70S
ACROSS THE BEACHES AND COASTAL COMMUNITIES EACH NIGHT. 07/MB

&&

.AVIATION...04.12Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION...A FEW VERY PATCHY
REGIONS OF MVFR CIGS/FOG ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...BUT VFR
CONDITIONS ARE OTHERWISE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WITH BROKEN MAINLY MID
TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUD DECKS.  EXPECT SHRA/TSRA TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE TODAY AND TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST MS AND
INTERIOR SOUTHWEST AL. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE LOCALIZED IN
AND NEAR CONVECTION. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 5-10 KNOTS WILL
GENERALLY PREVAIL. /21

&&

.MARINE...A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW PATTERN
WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE MARINE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
AS A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO STRETCH FROM THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC TO THE CENTRAL GULF. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT
SHOULD DECREASE IN COVERAGE DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE LOCALLY HIGHER NEAR STORMS THAT
DEVELOP...BUT LOW SEAS ARE OTHERWISE EXPECTED. /21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      89  73  86  72  88 /  50  50  50  30  30
PENSACOLA   90  75  85  73  88 /  40  40  40  30  40
DESTIN      89  77  86  77  89 /  30  40  40  30  40
EVERGREEN   89  71  86  70  88 /  60  60  60  40  40
WAYNESBORO  89  70  87  69  89 /  60  70  60  40  40
CAMDEN      89  70  85  70  87 /  70  70  60  40  40
CRESTVIEW   92  71  87  71  88 /  40  50  50  40  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 040437 AAC
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE TO AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1140 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...CURRENT PACKAGE ON TRACK...SHRA/TSRA CONTINUE TO MOVE
EASTWARD JUST NORTH OF THE FA. AM KEEPING THE PRECIP OVER NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST IN AS A RESULT. WITH AN UPPER SHORTWAVE
SWINGING SLOWLY SOUTH OVER THE TENN RIVER VALLEY...THE SPREADING OF
THE PRECIP SOUTH ACROSS THE FA OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY REMAINS
REASONABLE.

/16

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z ISSUANCE...WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER SYSTEM
BRINGING A WEAK BOUNDARY SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT...CURRENT ACTIVITY JUST NORTH OF THE AREA WILL SHIFT
SOUTH...WITH NEAR COASTAL AREAS SEEING AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE MAINLY
IN THE USUAL AFTERNOON/EVENING TIME PERIOD. GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED...WITH LOCALIZED MVFR CIGS/VISBYS IN THE TSRA

/16

&&

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT]...AS EXPECTED WE HAVE
VERY LITTLE CONVECTION OVER THE FCST AREA TODAY...ALTHOUGH A FEW
ISOLATED STORMS ARE TRYING TO DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE WESTERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE (SO FAR MAINLY JUST EAST OF OUR FCST AREA). AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR
EARLY EVENING FURTHER INLAND AS WELL...BUT MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN
RAINFREE THROUGH MIDNIGHT. AS WE APPROACH DAYBREAK ON SATURDAY (4TH
OF JULY)...THE SFC BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN INITIATING SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA TODAY WILL BE
SETTLING INTO EXTREME NORTHERN PORTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA.
THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE MOVING SOUTH TOWARD OUR AREA AS A RESULT OF A
DEEPENING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. MODELS
ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A FEW PIECES OF ENERGY
ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH TOMORROW. THE SFC BOUNDARY
BEING CLOSER AND ACTING AS A FOCUS...COMBINED WITH THE INCREASED
UPPER SUPPORT AS WELL AS DIURNAL HEATING PATTERN AND A VERY MOIST
AIRMASS SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS
TOMORROW...MOST LIKELY OVER NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FCST AREA.
WHILE NOT A COMPLETE WASHOUT FOR MOST AREAS...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT JUST ABOUT ANYTIME/ANYWHERE TOMORROW SO BE PREPARED.
WHILE THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LOW...A FEW STRONG TO EVEN MARGINALLY
SEVERE STORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE. LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE LOWER
70S INLAND TO THE MID/UPPER 70S AT THE COAST. HIGHS ON THE 4TH IN THE
UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S...BUT HIGH DEWPOINTS WILL PRODUCE HEAT
INDICES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S. 12/DS

SATURDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SLIDES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
MID-SOUTH AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA SATURDAY NIGHT...WHICH
UPON INTERACTING WITH A DEEPLY MOIST COLUMN OF AIR RESIDING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST SUGGESTS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
THROUGH THE NIGHT. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGING FROM 1.7 TO
1.9 INCHES...STORMS WILL BE EFFICIENT IN THE PRODUCTION OF LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAIN. FREQUENT LIGHTNING ACTIVITY AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS CAN
ALSO BE EXPECTED IN THE STRONGER STORMS. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE EXTENDS WESTWARD INTO THE GULF...MAINTAINING A LIGHT
SOUTHWEST FLOW AND MUGGY NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES. LOWS 73 TO
76...EXCEPT IN THE UPPER 70S AT THE BEACHES. /10

.LONG TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY]...UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS MIGRATES
EASTWARD SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THEN OPENS UP/WEAKENS TUESDAY. THE HIGH
LEVEL FLOW FLATTENS BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH A NARROW MID LEVEL
RIDGE SETTING UP FROM TEXAS...INTO THE SOUTHEAST.

WITH MID LEVEL IMPULSES ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE HIGH LEVEL TROF
AXIS SUNDAY AND MONDAY ALONG WITH PERSISTENT DEEP MOISTURE...A
MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST.
LOOKING TO RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER-TIME CONVECTIVE MODE WITH
LOW END CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NEXT
WEEK.

DAYTIME HIGHS CLOSE TO SEASONAL (UPPER 80S) DURING THE BEGINNING OF
THE OUTLOOK SHOWS AN UPWARD TREND INTO THE MID 90S BY THE LATTER END
OF NEXT WEEK AS MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOW VERY
LITTLE CHANGE. /10

&&

.MARINE...A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL
PREVAIL OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A
PERSISTENT SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WEST ACROSS EASTERN AND CENTRAL GULF. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL
DRIFT DOWN INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES...BRINGING AN INCREASE IN
SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE MARINE AREA THIS WEEKEND...BUT
DIMINISHING AGAIN SOMEWHAT EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE
LOCALLY HIGHER NEAR STORMS THAT DEVELOP...BUT OTHERWISE RELATIVELY
SMALL SEAS EXPECTED. 12/DS

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A MODERATE DEEP MIXED LAYER WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
RESULTS IN VERY HIGH DISPERSIONS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND PORTIONS OF INTERIOR SOUTHWEST ALABAMA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. LATEST GRIDDED DISPERSION INDEX RATINGS REACH BETWEEN 100
AND 120 OVER THESE AREAS. THESE VERY HIGH RATINGS SUGGEST HAZARDOUS
FIRE CONTROL CONDITIONS. OTHER HAZARDS THIS WEEKEND WILL BE FREQUENT
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY AND BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS IN AND NEAR SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS STORMS. /10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      76  88  74  89  74 /  20  50  40  50  40
PENSACOLA   77  89  75  88  75 /  20  50  30  40  30
DESTIN      79  88  79  88  79 /  10  50  30  50  30
EVERGREEN   73  89  73  89  73 /  20  70  40  50  40
WAYNESBORO  73  89  73  87  73 /  40  60  50  50  50
CAMDEN      73  87  72  88  72 /  30  60  50  50  50
CRESTVIEW   73  90  73  90  73 /  20  60  30  50  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 040437 AAC
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE TO AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1140 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...CURRENT PACKAGE ON TRACK...SHRA/TSRA CONTINUE TO MOVE
EASTWARD JUST NORTH OF THE FA. AM KEEPING THE PRECIP OVER NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST IN AS A RESULT. WITH AN UPPER SHORTWAVE
SWINGING SLOWLY SOUTH OVER THE TENN RIVER VALLEY...THE SPREADING OF
THE PRECIP SOUTH ACROSS THE FA OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY REMAINS
REASONABLE.

/16

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z ISSUANCE...WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER SYSTEM
BRINGING A WEAK BOUNDARY SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT...CURRENT ACTIVITY JUST NORTH OF THE AREA WILL SHIFT
SOUTH...WITH NEAR COASTAL AREAS SEEING AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE MAINLY
IN THE USUAL AFTERNOON/EVENING TIME PERIOD. GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED...WITH LOCALIZED MVFR CIGS/VISBYS IN THE TSRA

/16

&&

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT]...AS EXPECTED WE HAVE
VERY LITTLE CONVECTION OVER THE FCST AREA TODAY...ALTHOUGH A FEW
ISOLATED STORMS ARE TRYING TO DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE WESTERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE (SO FAR MAINLY JUST EAST OF OUR FCST AREA). AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR
EARLY EVENING FURTHER INLAND AS WELL...BUT MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN
RAINFREE THROUGH MIDNIGHT. AS WE APPROACH DAYBREAK ON SATURDAY (4TH
OF JULY)...THE SFC BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN INITIATING SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA TODAY WILL BE
SETTLING INTO EXTREME NORTHERN PORTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA.
THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE MOVING SOUTH TOWARD OUR AREA AS A RESULT OF A
DEEPENING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. MODELS
ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A FEW PIECES OF ENERGY
ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH TOMORROW. THE SFC BOUNDARY
BEING CLOSER AND ACTING AS A FOCUS...COMBINED WITH THE INCREASED
UPPER SUPPORT AS WELL AS DIURNAL HEATING PATTERN AND A VERY MOIST
AIRMASS SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS
TOMORROW...MOST LIKELY OVER NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FCST AREA.
WHILE NOT A COMPLETE WASHOUT FOR MOST AREAS...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT JUST ABOUT ANYTIME/ANYWHERE TOMORROW SO BE PREPARED.
WHILE THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LOW...A FEW STRONG TO EVEN MARGINALLY
SEVERE STORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE. LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE LOWER
70S INLAND TO THE MID/UPPER 70S AT THE COAST. HIGHS ON THE 4TH IN THE
UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S...BUT HIGH DEWPOINTS WILL PRODUCE HEAT
INDICES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S. 12/DS

SATURDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SLIDES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
MID-SOUTH AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA SATURDAY NIGHT...WHICH
UPON INTERACTING WITH A DEEPLY MOIST COLUMN OF AIR RESIDING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST SUGGESTS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
THROUGH THE NIGHT. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGING FROM 1.7 TO
1.9 INCHES...STORMS WILL BE EFFICIENT IN THE PRODUCTION OF LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAIN. FREQUENT LIGHTNING ACTIVITY AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS CAN
ALSO BE EXPECTED IN THE STRONGER STORMS. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE EXTENDS WESTWARD INTO THE GULF...MAINTAINING A LIGHT
SOUTHWEST FLOW AND MUGGY NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES. LOWS 73 TO
76...EXCEPT IN THE UPPER 70S AT THE BEACHES. /10

.LONG TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY]...UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS MIGRATES
EASTWARD SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THEN OPENS UP/WEAKENS TUESDAY. THE HIGH
LEVEL FLOW FLATTENS BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH A NARROW MID LEVEL
RIDGE SETTING UP FROM TEXAS...INTO THE SOUTHEAST.

WITH MID LEVEL IMPULSES ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE HIGH LEVEL TROF
AXIS SUNDAY AND MONDAY ALONG WITH PERSISTENT DEEP MOISTURE...A
MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST.
LOOKING TO RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER-TIME CONVECTIVE MODE WITH
LOW END CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NEXT
WEEK.

DAYTIME HIGHS CLOSE TO SEASONAL (UPPER 80S) DURING THE BEGINNING OF
THE OUTLOOK SHOWS AN UPWARD TREND INTO THE MID 90S BY THE LATTER END
OF NEXT WEEK AS MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOW VERY
LITTLE CHANGE. /10

&&

.MARINE...A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL
PREVAIL OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A
PERSISTENT SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WEST ACROSS EASTERN AND CENTRAL GULF. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL
DRIFT DOWN INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES...BRINGING AN INCREASE IN
SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE MARINE AREA THIS WEEKEND...BUT
DIMINISHING AGAIN SOMEWHAT EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE
LOCALLY HIGHER NEAR STORMS THAT DEVELOP...BUT OTHERWISE RELATIVELY
SMALL SEAS EXPECTED. 12/DS

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A MODERATE DEEP MIXED LAYER WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
RESULTS IN VERY HIGH DISPERSIONS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND PORTIONS OF INTERIOR SOUTHWEST ALABAMA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. LATEST GRIDDED DISPERSION INDEX RATINGS REACH BETWEEN 100
AND 120 OVER THESE AREAS. THESE VERY HIGH RATINGS SUGGEST HAZARDOUS
FIRE CONTROL CONDITIONS. OTHER HAZARDS THIS WEEKEND WILL BE FREQUENT
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY AND BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS IN AND NEAR SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS STORMS. /10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      76  88  74  89  74 /  20  50  40  50  40
PENSACOLA   77  89  75  88  75 /  20  50  30  40  30
DESTIN      79  88  79  88  79 /  10  50  30  50  30
EVERGREEN   73  89  73  89  73 /  20  70  40  50  40
WAYNESBORO  73  89  73  87  73 /  40  60  50  50  50
CAMDEN      73  87  72  88  72 /  30  60  50  50  50
CRESTVIEW   73  90  73  90  73 /  20  60  30  50  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMOB 040242 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
930 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...CURENT PACKAGE ON TRACK...SHRA/TSRA CONTINUE TO MOVE
EASTWARD JUST NORTH OF THE FA. AM KEEPING THE PRECIP ONVER NORTHER
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST IN AS A RESULT. WITH AN UPPER SHORTWAVE
SWINGIGN SLOWLY SOUTH OVER THE TENN RIVER VALLEY...THE SPREADING OF
THE PRECIP SOUTH ACROSS THE FA OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY REMAINS
REASONABLE.

/16

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z ISSUANCE...PRETTY MUCH THE SAME OLE FORECAST...GENERAL VFR
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST...WITH LOCAL DIPS IN THE AFTERNOON
DUE TO HEAVY RAINS IN ANY AFTERNOON/EVENING TSRA. AM EXPECTING
MORE COVERAGE FARTHER SOUTH SATURDAY WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER
SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE BOUNDARY.

/16

&&

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT]...AS EXPECTED WE HAVE
VERY LITTLE CONVECTION OVER THE FCST AREA TODAY...ALTHOUGH A FEW
ISOLATED STORMS ARE TRYING TO DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE WESTERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE (SO FAR MAINLY JUST EAST OF OUR FCST AREA). AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR
EARLY EVENING FURTHER INLAND AS WELL...BUT MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN
RAINFREE THROUGH MIDNIGHT. AS WE APPROACH DAYBREAK ON SATURDAY (4TH
OF JULY)...THE SFC BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN INITIATING SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA TODAY WILL BE
SETTLING INTO EXTREME NORTHERN PORTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA.
THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE MOVING SOUTH TOWARD OUR AREA AS A RESULT OF A
DEEPENING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. MODELS
ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A FEW PIECES OF ENERGY
ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH TOMORROW. THE SFC BOUNDARY
BEING CLOSER AND ACTING AS A FOCUS...COMBINED WITH THE INCREASED
UPPER SUPPORT AS WELL AS DIURNAL HEATING PATTERN AND A VERY MOIST
AIRMASS SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS
TOMORROW...MOST LIKELY OVER NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FCST AREA.
WHILE NOT A COMPLETE WASHOUT FOR MOST AREAS...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT JUST ABOUT ANYTIME/ANYWHERE TOMORROW SO BE PREPARED.
WHILE THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LOW...A FEW STRONG TO EVEN MARGINALLY
SEVERE STORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE. LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE LOWER
70S INLAND TO THE MID/UPPER 70S AT THE COAST. HIGHS ON THE 4TH IN THE
UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S...BUT HIGH DEWPOINTS WILL PRODUCE HEAT
INDICES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S. 12/DS

SATURDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SLIDES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
MID-SOUTH AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA SATURDAY NIGHT...WHICH
UPON INTERACTING WITH A DEEPLY MOIST COLUMN OF AIR RESIDING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST SUGGESTS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
THROUGH THE NIGHT. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGING FROM 1.7 TO
1.9 INCHES...STORMS WILL BE EFFICIENT IN THE PRODUCTION OF LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAIN. FREQUENT LIGHTNING ACTIVITY AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS CAN
ALSO BE EXPECTED IN THE STRONGER STORMS. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE EXTENDS WESTWARD INTO THE GULF...MAINTAINING A LIGHT
SOUTHWEST FLOW AND MUGGY NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES. LOWS 73 TO
76...EXCEPT IN THE UPPER 70S AT THE BEACHES. /10

.LONG TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY]...UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS MIGRATES
EASTWARD SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THEN OPENS UP/WEAKENS TUESDAY. THE HIGH
LEVEL FLOW FLATTENS BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH A NARROW MID LEVEL
RIDGE SETTING UP FROM TEXAS...INTO THE SOUTHEAST.

WITH MID LEVEL IMPULSES ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE HIGH LEVEL TROF
AXIS SUNDAY AND MONDAY ALONG WITH PERSISTENT DEEP MOISTURE...A
MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST.
LOOKING TO RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER-TIME CONVECTIVE MODE WITH
LOW END CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NEXT
WEEK.

DAYTIME HIGHS CLOSE TO SEASONAL (UPPER 80S) DURING THE BEGINNING OF
THE OUTLOOK SHOWS AN UPWARD TREND INTO THE MID 90S BY THE LATTER END
OF NEXT WEEK AS MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOW VERY
LITTLE CHANGE. /10

&&

.MARINE...A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL
PREVAIL OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A
PERSISTENT SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WEST ACROSS EASTERN AND CENTRAL GULF. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL
DRIFT DOWN INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES...BRINGING AN INCREASE IN
SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE MARINE AREA THIS WEEKEND...BUT
DIMINISHING AGAIN SOMEWHAT EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE
LOCALLY HIGHER NEAR STORMS THAT DEVELOP...BUT OTHERWISE RELATIVELY
SMALL SEAS EXPECTED. 12/DS

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A MODERATE DEEP MIXED LAYER WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
RESULTS IN VERY HIGH DISPERSIONS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND PORTIONS OF INTERIOR SOUTHWEST ALABAMA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. LATEST GRIDDED DISPERSION INDEX RATINGS REACH BETWEEN 100
AND 120 OVER THESE AREAS. THESE VERY HIGH RATINGS SUGGEST HAZARDOUS
FIRE CONTROL CONDITIONS. OTHER HAZARDS THIS WEEKEND WILL BE FREQUENT
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY AND BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS IN AND NEAR SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS STORMS. /10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      76  88  74  89  74 /  20  50  40  50  40
PENSACOLA   77  89  75  88  75 /  20  50  30  40  30
DESTIN      79  88  79  88  79 /  10  50  30  50  30
EVERGREEN   73  89  73  89  73 /  20  70  40  50  40
WAYNESBORO  73  89  73  87  73 /  40  60  50  50  50
CAMDEN      73  87  72  88  72 /  30  60  50  50  50
CRESTVIEW   73  90  73  90  73 /  20  60  30  50  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMOB 040242 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
930 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...CURENT PACKAGE ON TRACK...SHRA/TSRA CONTINUE TO MOVE
EASTWARD JUST NORTH OF THE FA. AM KEEPING THE PRECIP ONVER NORTHER
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST IN AS A RESULT. WITH AN UPPER SHORTWAVE
SWINGIGN SLOWLY SOUTH OVER THE TENN RIVER VALLEY...THE SPREADING OF
THE PRECIP SOUTH ACROSS THE FA OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY REMAINS
REASONABLE.

/16

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z ISSUANCE...PRETTY MUCH THE SAME OLE FORECAST...GENERAL VFR
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST...WITH LOCAL DIPS IN THE AFTERNOON
DUE TO HEAVY RAINS IN ANY AFTERNOON/EVENING TSRA. AM EXPECTING
MORE COVERAGE FARTHER SOUTH SATURDAY WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER
SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE BOUNDARY.

/16

&&

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT]...AS EXPECTED WE HAVE
VERY LITTLE CONVECTION OVER THE FCST AREA TODAY...ALTHOUGH A FEW
ISOLATED STORMS ARE TRYING TO DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE WESTERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE (SO FAR MAINLY JUST EAST OF OUR FCST AREA). AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR
EARLY EVENING FURTHER INLAND AS WELL...BUT MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN
RAINFREE THROUGH MIDNIGHT. AS WE APPROACH DAYBREAK ON SATURDAY (4TH
OF JULY)...THE SFC BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN INITIATING SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA TODAY WILL BE
SETTLING INTO EXTREME NORTHERN PORTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA.
THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE MOVING SOUTH TOWARD OUR AREA AS A RESULT OF A
DEEPENING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. MODELS
ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A FEW PIECES OF ENERGY
ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH TOMORROW. THE SFC BOUNDARY
BEING CLOSER AND ACTING AS A FOCUS...COMBINED WITH THE INCREASED
UPPER SUPPORT AS WELL AS DIURNAL HEATING PATTERN AND A VERY MOIST
AIRMASS SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS
TOMORROW...MOST LIKELY OVER NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FCST AREA.
WHILE NOT A COMPLETE WASHOUT FOR MOST AREAS...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT JUST ABOUT ANYTIME/ANYWHERE TOMORROW SO BE PREPARED.
WHILE THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LOW...A FEW STRONG TO EVEN MARGINALLY
SEVERE STORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE. LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE LOWER
70S INLAND TO THE MID/UPPER 70S AT THE COAST. HIGHS ON THE 4TH IN THE
UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S...BUT HIGH DEWPOINTS WILL PRODUCE HEAT
INDICES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S. 12/DS

SATURDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SLIDES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
MID-SOUTH AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA SATURDAY NIGHT...WHICH
UPON INTERACTING WITH A DEEPLY MOIST COLUMN OF AIR RESIDING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST SUGGESTS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
THROUGH THE NIGHT. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGING FROM 1.7 TO
1.9 INCHES...STORMS WILL BE EFFICIENT IN THE PRODUCTION OF LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAIN. FREQUENT LIGHTNING ACTIVITY AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS CAN
ALSO BE EXPECTED IN THE STRONGER STORMS. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE EXTENDS WESTWARD INTO THE GULF...MAINTAINING A LIGHT
SOUTHWEST FLOW AND MUGGY NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES. LOWS 73 TO
76...EXCEPT IN THE UPPER 70S AT THE BEACHES. /10

.LONG TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY]...UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS MIGRATES
EASTWARD SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THEN OPENS UP/WEAKENS TUESDAY. THE HIGH
LEVEL FLOW FLATTENS BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH A NARROW MID LEVEL
RIDGE SETTING UP FROM TEXAS...INTO THE SOUTHEAST.

WITH MID LEVEL IMPULSES ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE HIGH LEVEL TROF
AXIS SUNDAY AND MONDAY ALONG WITH PERSISTENT DEEP MOISTURE...A
MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST.
LOOKING TO RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER-TIME CONVECTIVE MODE WITH
LOW END CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NEXT
WEEK.

DAYTIME HIGHS CLOSE TO SEASONAL (UPPER 80S) DURING THE BEGINNING OF
THE OUTLOOK SHOWS AN UPWARD TREND INTO THE MID 90S BY THE LATTER END
OF NEXT WEEK AS MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOW VERY
LITTLE CHANGE. /10

&&

.MARINE...A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL
PREVAIL OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A
PERSISTENT SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WEST ACROSS EASTERN AND CENTRAL GULF. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL
DRIFT DOWN INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES...BRINGING AN INCREASE IN
SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE MARINE AREA THIS WEEKEND...BUT
DIMINISHING AGAIN SOMEWHAT EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE
LOCALLY HIGHER NEAR STORMS THAT DEVELOP...BUT OTHERWISE RELATIVELY
SMALL SEAS EXPECTED. 12/DS

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A MODERATE DEEP MIXED LAYER WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
RESULTS IN VERY HIGH DISPERSIONS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND PORTIONS OF INTERIOR SOUTHWEST ALABAMA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. LATEST GRIDDED DISPERSION INDEX RATINGS REACH BETWEEN 100
AND 120 OVER THESE AREAS. THESE VERY HIGH RATINGS SUGGEST HAZARDOUS
FIRE CONTROL CONDITIONS. OTHER HAZARDS THIS WEEKEND WILL BE FREQUENT
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY AND BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS IN AND NEAR SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS STORMS. /10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      76  88  74  89  74 /  20  50  40  50  40
PENSACOLA   77  89  75  88  75 /  20  50  30  40  30
DESTIN      79  88  79  88  79 /  10  50  30  50  30
EVERGREEN   73  89  73  89  73 /  20  70  40  50  40
WAYNESBORO  73  89  73  87  73 /  40  60  50  50  50
CAMDEN      73  87  72  88  72 /  30  60  50  50  50
CRESTVIEW   73  90  73  90  73 /  20  60  30  50  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 040242 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
930 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...CURRENT PACKAGE ON TRACK...SHRA/TSRA CONTINUE TO MOVE
EASTWARD JUST NORTH OF THE FA. AM KEEPING THE PRECIP OVER NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST IN AS A RESULT. WITH AN UPPER SHORTWAVE
SWINGING SLOWLY SOUTH OVER THE TENN RIVER VALLEY...THE SPREADING OF
THE PRECIP SOUTH ACROSS THE FA OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY REMAINS
REASONABLE.

/16

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z ISSUANCE...PRETTY MUCH THE SAME OLE FORECAST...GENERAL VFR
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST...WITH LOCAL DIPS IN THE AFTERNOON
DUE TO HEAVY RAINS IN ANY AFTERNOON/EVENING TSRA. AM EXPECTING
MORE COVERAGE FARTHER SOUTH SATURDAY WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER
SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE BOUNDARY.

/16

&&

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT]...AS EXPECTED WE HAVE
VERY LITTLE CONVECTION OVER THE FCST AREA TODAY...ALTHOUGH A FEW
ISOLATED STORMS ARE TRYING TO DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE WESTERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE (SO FAR MAINLY JUST EAST OF OUR FCST AREA). AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR
EARLY EVENING FURTHER INLAND AS WELL...BUT MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN
RAINFREE THROUGH MIDNIGHT. AS WE APPROACH DAYBREAK ON SATURDAY (4TH
OF JULY)...THE SFC BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN INITIATING SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA TODAY WILL BE
SETTLING INTO EXTREME NORTHERN PORTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA.
THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE MOVING SOUTH TOWARD OUR AREA AS A RESULT OF A
DEEPENING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. MODELS
ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A FEW PIECES OF ENERGY
ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH TOMORROW. THE SFC BOUNDARY
BEING CLOSER AND ACTING AS A FOCUS...COMBINED WITH THE INCREASED
UPPER SUPPORT AS WELL AS DIURNAL HEATING PATTERN AND A VERY MOIST
AIRMASS SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS
TOMORROW...MOST LIKELY OVER NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FCST AREA.
WHILE NOT A COMPLETE WASHOUT FOR MOST AREAS...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT JUST ABOUT ANYTIME/ANYWHERE TOMORROW SO BE PREPARED.
WHILE THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LOW...A FEW STRONG TO EVEN MARGINALLY
SEVERE STORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE. LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE LOWER
70S INLAND TO THE MID/UPPER 70S AT THE COAST. HIGHS ON THE 4TH IN THE
UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S...BUT HIGH DEWPOINTS WILL PRODUCE HEAT
INDICES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S. 12/DS

SATURDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SLIDES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
MID-SOUTH AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA SATURDAY NIGHT...WHICH
UPON INTERACTING WITH A DEEPLY MOIST COLUMN OF AIR RESIDING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST SUGGESTS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
THROUGH THE NIGHT. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGING FROM 1.7 TO
1.9 INCHES...STORMS WILL BE EFFICIENT IN THE PRODUCTION OF LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAIN. FREQUENT LIGHTNING ACTIVITY AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS CAN
ALSO BE EXPECTED IN THE STRONGER STORMS. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE EXTENDS WESTWARD INTO THE GULF...MAINTAINING A LIGHT
SOUTHWEST FLOW AND MUGGY NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES. LOWS 73 TO
76...EXCEPT IN THE UPPER 70S AT THE BEACHES. /10

.LONG TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY]...UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS MIGRATES
EASTWARD SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THEN OPENS UP/WEAKENS TUESDAY. THE HIGH
LEVEL FLOW FLATTENS BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH A NARROW MID LEVEL
RIDGE SETTING UP FROM TEXAS...INTO THE SOUTHEAST.

WITH MID LEVEL IMPULSES ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE HIGH LEVEL TROF
AXIS SUNDAY AND MONDAY ALONG WITH PERSISTENT DEEP MOISTURE...A
MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST.
LOOKING TO RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER-TIME CONVECTIVE MODE WITH
LOW END CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NEXT
WEEK.

DAYTIME HIGHS CLOSE TO SEASONAL (UPPER 80S) DURING THE BEGINNING OF
THE OUTLOOK SHOWS AN UPWARD TREND INTO THE MID 90S BY THE LATTER END
OF NEXT WEEK AS MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOW VERY
LITTLE CHANGE. /10

&&

.MARINE...A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL
PREVAIL OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A
PERSISTENT SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WEST ACROSS EASTERN AND CENTRAL GULF. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL
DRIFT DOWN INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES...BRINGING AN INCREASE IN
SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE MARINE AREA THIS WEEKEND...BUT
DIMINISHING AGAIN SOMEWHAT EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE
LOCALLY HIGHER NEAR STORMS THAT DEVELOP...BUT OTHERWISE RELATIVELY
SMALL SEAS EXPECTED. 12/DS

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A MODERATE DEEP MIXED LAYER WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
RESULTS IN VERY HIGH DISPERSIONS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND PORTIONS OF INTERIOR SOUTHWEST ALABAMA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. LATEST GRIDDED DISPERSION INDEX RATINGS REACH BETWEEN 100
AND 120 OVER THESE AREAS. THESE VERY HIGH RATINGS SUGGEST HAZARDOUS
FIRE CONTROL CONDITIONS. OTHER HAZARDS THIS WEEKEND WILL BE FREQUENT
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY AND BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS IN AND NEAR SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS STORMS. /10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      76  88  74  89  74 /  20  50  40  50  40
PENSACOLA   77  89  75  88  75 /  20  50  30  40  30
DESTIN      79  88  79  88  79 /  10  50  30  50  30
EVERGREEN   73  89  73  89  73 /  20  70  40  50  40
WAYNESBORO  73  89  73  87  73 /  40  60  50  50  50
CAMDEN      73  87  72  88  72 /  30  60  50  50  50
CRESTVIEW   73  90  73  90  73 /  20  60  30  50  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMOB 040242 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
930 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...CURRENT PACKAGE ON TRACK...SHRA/TSRA CONTINUE TO MOVE
EASTWARD JUST NORTH OF THE FA. AM KEEPING THE PRECIP OVER NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST IN AS A RESULT. WITH AN UPPER SHORTWAVE
SWINGING SLOWLY SOUTH OVER THE TENN RIVER VALLEY...THE SPREADING OF
THE PRECIP SOUTH ACROSS THE FA OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY REMAINS
REASONABLE.

/16

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z ISSUANCE...PRETTY MUCH THE SAME OLE FORECAST...GENERAL VFR
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST...WITH LOCAL DIPS IN THE AFTERNOON
DUE TO HEAVY RAINS IN ANY AFTERNOON/EVENING TSRA. AM EXPECTING
MORE COVERAGE FARTHER SOUTH SATURDAY WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER
SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE BOUNDARY.

/16

&&

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT]...AS EXPECTED WE HAVE
VERY LITTLE CONVECTION OVER THE FCST AREA TODAY...ALTHOUGH A FEW
ISOLATED STORMS ARE TRYING TO DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE WESTERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE (SO FAR MAINLY JUST EAST OF OUR FCST AREA). AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR
EARLY EVENING FURTHER INLAND AS WELL...BUT MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN
RAINFREE THROUGH MIDNIGHT. AS WE APPROACH DAYBREAK ON SATURDAY (4TH
OF JULY)...THE SFC BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN INITIATING SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA TODAY WILL BE
SETTLING INTO EXTREME NORTHERN PORTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA.
THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE MOVING SOUTH TOWARD OUR AREA AS A RESULT OF A
DEEPENING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. MODELS
ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A FEW PIECES OF ENERGY
ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH TOMORROW. THE SFC BOUNDARY
BEING CLOSER AND ACTING AS A FOCUS...COMBINED WITH THE INCREASED
UPPER SUPPORT AS WELL AS DIURNAL HEATING PATTERN AND A VERY MOIST
AIRMASS SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS
TOMORROW...MOST LIKELY OVER NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FCST AREA.
WHILE NOT A COMPLETE WASHOUT FOR MOST AREAS...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT JUST ABOUT ANYTIME/ANYWHERE TOMORROW SO BE PREPARED.
WHILE THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LOW...A FEW STRONG TO EVEN MARGINALLY
SEVERE STORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE. LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE LOWER
70S INLAND TO THE MID/UPPER 70S AT THE COAST. HIGHS ON THE 4TH IN THE
UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S...BUT HIGH DEWPOINTS WILL PRODUCE HEAT
INDICES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S. 12/DS

SATURDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SLIDES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
MID-SOUTH AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA SATURDAY NIGHT...WHICH
UPON INTERACTING WITH A DEEPLY MOIST COLUMN OF AIR RESIDING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST SUGGESTS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
THROUGH THE NIGHT. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGING FROM 1.7 TO
1.9 INCHES...STORMS WILL BE EFFICIENT IN THE PRODUCTION OF LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAIN. FREQUENT LIGHTNING ACTIVITY AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS CAN
ALSO BE EXPECTED IN THE STRONGER STORMS. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE EXTENDS WESTWARD INTO THE GULF...MAINTAINING A LIGHT
SOUTHWEST FLOW AND MUGGY NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES. LOWS 73 TO
76...EXCEPT IN THE UPPER 70S AT THE BEACHES. /10

.LONG TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY]...UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS MIGRATES
EASTWARD SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THEN OPENS UP/WEAKENS TUESDAY. THE HIGH
LEVEL FLOW FLATTENS BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH A NARROW MID LEVEL
RIDGE SETTING UP FROM TEXAS...INTO THE SOUTHEAST.

WITH MID LEVEL IMPULSES ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE HIGH LEVEL TROF
AXIS SUNDAY AND MONDAY ALONG WITH PERSISTENT DEEP MOISTURE...A
MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST.
LOOKING TO RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER-TIME CONVECTIVE MODE WITH
LOW END CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NEXT
WEEK.

DAYTIME HIGHS CLOSE TO SEASONAL (UPPER 80S) DURING THE BEGINNING OF
THE OUTLOOK SHOWS AN UPWARD TREND INTO THE MID 90S BY THE LATTER END
OF NEXT WEEK AS MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOW VERY
LITTLE CHANGE. /10

&&

.MARINE...A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL
PREVAIL OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A
PERSISTENT SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WEST ACROSS EASTERN AND CENTRAL GULF. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL
DRIFT DOWN INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES...BRINGING AN INCREASE IN
SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE MARINE AREA THIS WEEKEND...BUT
DIMINISHING AGAIN SOMEWHAT EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE
LOCALLY HIGHER NEAR STORMS THAT DEVELOP...BUT OTHERWISE RELATIVELY
SMALL SEAS EXPECTED. 12/DS

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A MODERATE DEEP MIXED LAYER WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
RESULTS IN VERY HIGH DISPERSIONS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND PORTIONS OF INTERIOR SOUTHWEST ALABAMA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. LATEST GRIDDED DISPERSION INDEX RATINGS REACH BETWEEN 100
AND 120 OVER THESE AREAS. THESE VERY HIGH RATINGS SUGGEST HAZARDOUS
FIRE CONTROL CONDITIONS. OTHER HAZARDS THIS WEEKEND WILL BE FREQUENT
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY AND BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS IN AND NEAR SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS STORMS. /10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      76  88  74  89  74 /  20  50  40  50  40
PENSACOLA   77  89  75  88  75 /  20  50  30  40  30
DESTIN      79  88  79  88  79 /  10  50  30  50  30
EVERGREEN   73  89  73  89  73 /  20  70  40  50  40
WAYNESBORO  73  89  73  87  73 /  40  60  50  50  50
CAMDEN      73  87  72  88  72 /  30  60  50  50  50
CRESTVIEW   73  90  73  90  73 /  20  60  30  50  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 040242 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
930 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...CURRENT PACKAGE ON TRACK...SHRA/TSRA CONTINUE TO MOVE
EASTWARD JUST NORTH OF THE FA. AM KEEPING THE PRECIP OVER NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST IN AS A RESULT. WITH AN UPPER SHORTWAVE
SWINGING SLOWLY SOUTH OVER THE TENN RIVER VALLEY...THE SPREADING OF
THE PRECIP SOUTH ACROSS THE FA OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY REMAINS
REASONABLE.

/16

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z ISSUANCE...PRETTY MUCH THE SAME OLE FORECAST...GENERAL VFR
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST...WITH LOCAL DIPS IN THE AFTERNOON
DUE TO HEAVY RAINS IN ANY AFTERNOON/EVENING TSRA. AM EXPECTING
MORE COVERAGE FARTHER SOUTH SATURDAY WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER
SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE BOUNDARY.

/16

&&

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT]...AS EXPECTED WE HAVE
VERY LITTLE CONVECTION OVER THE FCST AREA TODAY...ALTHOUGH A FEW
ISOLATED STORMS ARE TRYING TO DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE WESTERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE (SO FAR MAINLY JUST EAST OF OUR FCST AREA). AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR
EARLY EVENING FURTHER INLAND AS WELL...BUT MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN
RAINFREE THROUGH MIDNIGHT. AS WE APPROACH DAYBREAK ON SATURDAY (4TH
OF JULY)...THE SFC BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN INITIATING SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA TODAY WILL BE
SETTLING INTO EXTREME NORTHERN PORTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA.
THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE MOVING SOUTH TOWARD OUR AREA AS A RESULT OF A
DEEPENING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. MODELS
ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A FEW PIECES OF ENERGY
ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH TOMORROW. THE SFC BOUNDARY
BEING CLOSER AND ACTING AS A FOCUS...COMBINED WITH THE INCREASED
UPPER SUPPORT AS WELL AS DIURNAL HEATING PATTERN AND A VERY MOIST
AIRMASS SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS
TOMORROW...MOST LIKELY OVER NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FCST AREA.
WHILE NOT A COMPLETE WASHOUT FOR MOST AREAS...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT JUST ABOUT ANYTIME/ANYWHERE TOMORROW SO BE PREPARED.
WHILE THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LOW...A FEW STRONG TO EVEN MARGINALLY
SEVERE STORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE. LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE LOWER
70S INLAND TO THE MID/UPPER 70S AT THE COAST. HIGHS ON THE 4TH IN THE
UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S...BUT HIGH DEWPOINTS WILL PRODUCE HEAT
INDICES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S. 12/DS

SATURDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SLIDES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
MID-SOUTH AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA SATURDAY NIGHT...WHICH
UPON INTERACTING WITH A DEEPLY MOIST COLUMN OF AIR RESIDING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST SUGGESTS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
THROUGH THE NIGHT. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGING FROM 1.7 TO
1.9 INCHES...STORMS WILL BE EFFICIENT IN THE PRODUCTION OF LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAIN. FREQUENT LIGHTNING ACTIVITY AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS CAN
ALSO BE EXPECTED IN THE STRONGER STORMS. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE EXTENDS WESTWARD INTO THE GULF...MAINTAINING A LIGHT
SOUTHWEST FLOW AND MUGGY NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES. LOWS 73 TO
76...EXCEPT IN THE UPPER 70S AT THE BEACHES. /10

.LONG TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY]...UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS MIGRATES
EASTWARD SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THEN OPENS UP/WEAKENS TUESDAY. THE HIGH
LEVEL FLOW FLATTENS BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH A NARROW MID LEVEL
RIDGE SETTING UP FROM TEXAS...INTO THE SOUTHEAST.

WITH MID LEVEL IMPULSES ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE HIGH LEVEL TROF
AXIS SUNDAY AND MONDAY ALONG WITH PERSISTENT DEEP MOISTURE...A
MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST.
LOOKING TO RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER-TIME CONVECTIVE MODE WITH
LOW END CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NEXT
WEEK.

DAYTIME HIGHS CLOSE TO SEASONAL (UPPER 80S) DURING THE BEGINNING OF
THE OUTLOOK SHOWS AN UPWARD TREND INTO THE MID 90S BY THE LATTER END
OF NEXT WEEK AS MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOW VERY
LITTLE CHANGE. /10

&&

.MARINE...A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL
PREVAIL OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A
PERSISTENT SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WEST ACROSS EASTERN AND CENTRAL GULF. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL
DRIFT DOWN INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES...BRINGING AN INCREASE IN
SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE MARINE AREA THIS WEEKEND...BUT
DIMINISHING AGAIN SOMEWHAT EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE
LOCALLY HIGHER NEAR STORMS THAT DEVELOP...BUT OTHERWISE RELATIVELY
SMALL SEAS EXPECTED. 12/DS

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A MODERATE DEEP MIXED LAYER WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
RESULTS IN VERY HIGH DISPERSIONS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND PORTIONS OF INTERIOR SOUTHWEST ALABAMA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. LATEST GRIDDED DISPERSION INDEX RATINGS REACH BETWEEN 100
AND 120 OVER THESE AREAS. THESE VERY HIGH RATINGS SUGGEST HAZARDOUS
FIRE CONTROL CONDITIONS. OTHER HAZARDS THIS WEEKEND WILL BE FREQUENT
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY AND BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS IN AND NEAR SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS STORMS. /10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      76  88  74  89  74 /  20  50  40  50  40
PENSACOLA   77  89  75  88  75 /  20  50  30  40  30
DESTIN      79  88  79  88  79 /  10  50  30  50  30
EVERGREEN   73  89  73  89  73 /  20  70  40  50  40
WAYNESBORO  73  89  73  87  73 /  40  60  50  50  50
CAMDEN      73  87  72  88  72 /  30  60  50  50  50
CRESTVIEW   73  90  73  90  73 /  20  60  30  50  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 040242 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
930 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...CURRENT PACKAGE ON TRACK...SHRA/TSRA CONTINUE TO MOVE
EASTWARD JUST NORTH OF THE FA. AM KEEPING THE PRECIP OVER NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST IN AS A RESULT. WITH AN UPPER SHORTWAVE
SWINGING SLOWLY SOUTH OVER THE TENN RIVER VALLEY...THE SPREADING OF
THE PRECIP SOUTH ACROSS THE FA OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY REMAINS
REASONABLE.

/16

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z ISSUANCE...PRETTY MUCH THE SAME OLE FORECAST...GENERAL VFR
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST...WITH LOCAL DIPS IN THE AFTERNOON
DUE TO HEAVY RAINS IN ANY AFTERNOON/EVENING TSRA. AM EXPECTING
MORE COVERAGE FARTHER SOUTH SATURDAY WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER
SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE BOUNDARY.

/16

&&

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT]...AS EXPECTED WE HAVE
VERY LITTLE CONVECTION OVER THE FCST AREA TODAY...ALTHOUGH A FEW
ISOLATED STORMS ARE TRYING TO DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE WESTERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE (SO FAR MAINLY JUST EAST OF OUR FCST AREA). AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR
EARLY EVENING FURTHER INLAND AS WELL...BUT MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN
RAINFREE THROUGH MIDNIGHT. AS WE APPROACH DAYBREAK ON SATURDAY (4TH
OF JULY)...THE SFC BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN INITIATING SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA TODAY WILL BE
SETTLING INTO EXTREME NORTHERN PORTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA.
THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE MOVING SOUTH TOWARD OUR AREA AS A RESULT OF A
DEEPENING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. MODELS
ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A FEW PIECES OF ENERGY
ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH TOMORROW. THE SFC BOUNDARY
BEING CLOSER AND ACTING AS A FOCUS...COMBINED WITH THE INCREASED
UPPER SUPPORT AS WELL AS DIURNAL HEATING PATTERN AND A VERY MOIST
AIRMASS SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS
TOMORROW...MOST LIKELY OVER NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FCST AREA.
WHILE NOT A COMPLETE WASHOUT FOR MOST AREAS...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT JUST ABOUT ANYTIME/ANYWHERE TOMORROW SO BE PREPARED.
WHILE THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LOW...A FEW STRONG TO EVEN MARGINALLY
SEVERE STORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE. LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE LOWER
70S INLAND TO THE MID/UPPER 70S AT THE COAST. HIGHS ON THE 4TH IN THE
UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S...BUT HIGH DEWPOINTS WILL PRODUCE HEAT
INDICES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S. 12/DS

SATURDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SLIDES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
MID-SOUTH AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA SATURDAY NIGHT...WHICH
UPON INTERACTING WITH A DEEPLY MOIST COLUMN OF AIR RESIDING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST SUGGESTS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
THROUGH THE NIGHT. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGING FROM 1.7 TO
1.9 INCHES...STORMS WILL BE EFFICIENT IN THE PRODUCTION OF LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAIN. FREQUENT LIGHTNING ACTIVITY AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS CAN
ALSO BE EXPECTED IN THE STRONGER STORMS. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE EXTENDS WESTWARD INTO THE GULF...MAINTAINING A LIGHT
SOUTHWEST FLOW AND MUGGY NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES. LOWS 73 TO
76...EXCEPT IN THE UPPER 70S AT THE BEACHES. /10

.LONG TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY]...UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS MIGRATES
EASTWARD SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THEN OPENS UP/WEAKENS TUESDAY. THE HIGH
LEVEL FLOW FLATTENS BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH A NARROW MID LEVEL
RIDGE SETTING UP FROM TEXAS...INTO THE SOUTHEAST.

WITH MID LEVEL IMPULSES ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE HIGH LEVEL TROF
AXIS SUNDAY AND MONDAY ALONG WITH PERSISTENT DEEP MOISTURE...A
MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST.
LOOKING TO RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER-TIME CONVECTIVE MODE WITH
LOW END CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NEXT
WEEK.

DAYTIME HIGHS CLOSE TO SEASONAL (UPPER 80S) DURING THE BEGINNING OF
THE OUTLOOK SHOWS AN UPWARD TREND INTO THE MID 90S BY THE LATTER END
OF NEXT WEEK AS MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOW VERY
LITTLE CHANGE. /10

&&

.MARINE...A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL
PREVAIL OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A
PERSISTENT SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WEST ACROSS EASTERN AND CENTRAL GULF. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL
DRIFT DOWN INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES...BRINGING AN INCREASE IN
SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE MARINE AREA THIS WEEKEND...BUT
DIMINISHING AGAIN SOMEWHAT EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE
LOCALLY HIGHER NEAR STORMS THAT DEVELOP...BUT OTHERWISE RELATIVELY
SMALL SEAS EXPECTED. 12/DS

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A MODERATE DEEP MIXED LAYER WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
RESULTS IN VERY HIGH DISPERSIONS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND PORTIONS OF INTERIOR SOUTHWEST ALABAMA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. LATEST GRIDDED DISPERSION INDEX RATINGS REACH BETWEEN 100
AND 120 OVER THESE AREAS. THESE VERY HIGH RATINGS SUGGEST HAZARDOUS
FIRE CONTROL CONDITIONS. OTHER HAZARDS THIS WEEKEND WILL BE FREQUENT
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY AND BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS IN AND NEAR SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS STORMS. /10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      76  88  74  89  74 /  20  50  40  50  40
PENSACOLA   77  89  75  88  75 /  20  50  30  40  30
DESTIN      79  88  79  88  79 /  10  50  30  50  30
EVERGREEN   73  89  73  89  73 /  20  70  40  50  40
WAYNESBORO  73  89  73  87  73 /  40  60  50  50  50
CAMDEN      73  87  72  88  72 /  30  60  50  50  50
CRESTVIEW   73  90  73  90  73 /  20  60  30  50  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMOB 032327 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE TO AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
630 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.AVIATION... 00Z ISSUANCE...PRETTY MUCH THE SAME OLE
FORECAST...GENERAL VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST...WITH LOCAL
DIPS IN THE AFTERNOON DUE TO HEAVY RAINS IN ANY AFTERNOON/EVENING
TSRA. AM EXPECTING MORE COVERAGE FARTHER SOUTH SATURDAY WITH AN
APPROACHING UPPER SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE BOUNDARY.

/16

&&

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT]...AS EXPECTED WE HAVE
VERY LITTLE CONVECTION OVER THE FCST AREA TODAY...ALTHOUGH A FEW
ISOLATED STORMS ARE TRYING TO DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE WESTERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE (SO FAR MAINLY JUST EAST OF OUR FCST AREA). AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR
EARLY EVENING FURTHER INLAND AS WELL...BUT MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN
RAINFREE THROUGH MIDNIGHT. AS WE APPROACH DAYBREAK ON SATURDAY (4TH
OF JULY)...THE SFC BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN INITIATING SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA TODAY WILL BE
SETTLING INTO EXTREME NORTHERN PORTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA.
THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE MOVING SOUTH TOWARD OUR AREA AS A RESULT OF A
DEEPENING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. MODELS
ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A FEW PIECES OF ENERGY
ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH TOMORROW. THE SFC BOUNDARY
BEING CLOSER AND ACTING AS A FOCUS...COMBINED WITH THE INCREASED
UPPER SUPPORT AS WELL AS DIURNAL HEATING PATTERN AND A VERY MOIST
AIRMASS SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS
TOMORROW...MOST LIKELY OVER NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FCST AREA.
WHILE NOT A COMPLETE WASHOUT FOR MOST AREAS...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT JUST ABOUT ANYTIME/ANYWHERE TOMORROW SO BE PREPARED.
WHILE THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LOW...A FEW STRONG TO EVEN MARGINALLY
SEVERE STORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE. LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE LOWER
70S INLAND TO THE MID/UPPER 70S AT THE COAST. HIGHS ON THE 4TH IN THE
UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S...BUT HIGH DEWPOINTS WILL PRODUCE HEAT
INDICES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S. 12/DS

SATURDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SLIDES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
MID-SOUTH AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA SATURDAY NIGHT...WHICH
UPON INTERACTING WITH A DEEPLY MOIST COLUMN OF AIR RESIDING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST SUGGESTS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
THROUGH THE NIGHT. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGING FROM 1.7 TO
1.9 INCHES...STORMS WILL BE EFFICIENT IN THE PRODUCTION OF LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAIN. FREQUENT LIGHTNING ACTIVITY AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS CAN
ALSO BE EXPECTED IN THE STRONGER STORMS. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE EXTENDS WESTWARD INTO THE GULF...MAINTAINING A LIGHT
SOUTHWEST FLOW AND MUGGY NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES. LOWS 73 TO
76...EXCEPT IN THE UPPER 70S AT THE BEACHES. /10

.LONG TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY]...UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS MIGRATES
EASTWARD SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THEN OPENS UP/WEAKENS TUESDAY. THE HIGH
LEVEL FLOW FLATTENS BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH A NARROW MID LEVEL
RIDGE SETTING UP FROM TEXAS...INTO THE SOUTHEAST.

WITH MID LEVEL IMPULSES ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE HIGH LEVEL TROF
AXIS SUNDAY AND MONDAY ALONG WITH PERSISTENT DEEP MOISTURE...A
MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST.
LOOKING TO RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER-TIME CONVECTIVE MODE WITH
LOW END CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NEXT
WEEK.

DAYTIME HIGHS CLOSE TO SEASONAL (UPPER 80S) DURING THE BEGINNING OF
THE OUTLOOK SHOWS AN UPWARD TREND INTO THE MID 90S BY THE LATTER END
OF NEXT WEEK AS MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOW VERY
LITTLE CHANGE. /10

&&

.MARINE...A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL
PREVAIL OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A
PERSISTENT SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WEST ACROSS EASTERN AND CENTRAL GULF. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL
DRIFT DOWN INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES...BRINGING AN INCREASE IN
SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE MARINE AREA THIS WEEKEND...BUT
DIMINISHING AGAIN SOMEWHAT EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE
LOCALLY HIGHER NEAR STORMS THAT DEVELOP...BUT OTHERWISE RELATIVELY
SMALL SEAS EXPECTED. 12/DS

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A MODERATE DEEP MIXED LAYER WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
RESULTS IN VERY HIGH DISPERSIONS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND PORTIONS OF INTERIOR SOUTHWEST ALABAMA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. LATEST GRIDDED DISPERSION INDEX RATINGS REACH BETWEEN 100
AND 120 OVER THESE AREAS. THESE VERY HIGH RATINGS SUGGEST HAZARDOUS
FIRE CONTROL CONDITIONS. OTHER HAZARDS THIS WEEKEND WILL BE FREQUENT
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY AND BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS IN AND NEAR SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS STORMS. /10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      76  88  74  89  74 /  20  50  40  50  40
PENSACOLA   77  89  75  88  75 /  20  50  30  40  30
DESTIN      79  88  79  88  79 /  10  50  30  50  30
EVERGREEN   73  89  73  89  73 /  20  70  40  50  40
WAYNESBORO  73  89  73  87  73 /  40  60  50  50  50
CAMDEN      73  87  72  88  72 /  30  60  50  50  50
CRESTVIEW   73  90  73  90  73 /  20  60  30  50  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMOB 032327 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE TO AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
630 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.AVIATION... 00Z ISSUANCE...PRETTY MUCH THE SAME OLE
FORECAST...GENERAL VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST...WITH LOCAL
DIPS IN THE AFTERNOON DUE TO HEAVY RAINS IN ANY AFTERNOON/EVENING
TSRA. AM EXPECTING MORE COVERAGE FARTHER SOUTH SATURDAY WITH AN
APPROACHING UPPER SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE BOUNDARY.

/16

&&

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT]...AS EXPECTED WE HAVE
VERY LITTLE CONVECTION OVER THE FCST AREA TODAY...ALTHOUGH A FEW
ISOLATED STORMS ARE TRYING TO DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE WESTERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE (SO FAR MAINLY JUST EAST OF OUR FCST AREA). AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR
EARLY EVENING FURTHER INLAND AS WELL...BUT MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN
RAINFREE THROUGH MIDNIGHT. AS WE APPROACH DAYBREAK ON SATURDAY (4TH
OF JULY)...THE SFC BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN INITIATING SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA TODAY WILL BE
SETTLING INTO EXTREME NORTHERN PORTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA.
THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE MOVING SOUTH TOWARD OUR AREA AS A RESULT OF A
DEEPENING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. MODELS
ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A FEW PIECES OF ENERGY
ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH TOMORROW. THE SFC BOUNDARY
BEING CLOSER AND ACTING AS A FOCUS...COMBINED WITH THE INCREASED
UPPER SUPPORT AS WELL AS DIURNAL HEATING PATTERN AND A VERY MOIST
AIRMASS SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS
TOMORROW...MOST LIKELY OVER NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FCST AREA.
WHILE NOT A COMPLETE WASHOUT FOR MOST AREAS...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT JUST ABOUT ANYTIME/ANYWHERE TOMORROW SO BE PREPARED.
WHILE THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LOW...A FEW STRONG TO EVEN MARGINALLY
SEVERE STORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE. LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE LOWER
70S INLAND TO THE MID/UPPER 70S AT THE COAST. HIGHS ON THE 4TH IN THE
UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S...BUT HIGH DEWPOINTS WILL PRODUCE HEAT
INDICES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S. 12/DS

SATURDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SLIDES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
MID-SOUTH AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA SATURDAY NIGHT...WHICH
UPON INTERACTING WITH A DEEPLY MOIST COLUMN OF AIR RESIDING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST SUGGESTS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
THROUGH THE NIGHT. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGING FROM 1.7 TO
1.9 INCHES...STORMS WILL BE EFFICIENT IN THE PRODUCTION OF LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAIN. FREQUENT LIGHTNING ACTIVITY AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS CAN
ALSO BE EXPECTED IN THE STRONGER STORMS. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE EXTENDS WESTWARD INTO THE GULF...MAINTAINING A LIGHT
SOUTHWEST FLOW AND MUGGY NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES. LOWS 73 TO
76...EXCEPT IN THE UPPER 70S AT THE BEACHES. /10

.LONG TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY]...UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS MIGRATES
EASTWARD SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THEN OPENS UP/WEAKENS TUESDAY. THE HIGH
LEVEL FLOW FLATTENS BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH A NARROW MID LEVEL
RIDGE SETTING UP FROM TEXAS...INTO THE SOUTHEAST.

WITH MID LEVEL IMPULSES ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE HIGH LEVEL TROF
AXIS SUNDAY AND MONDAY ALONG WITH PERSISTENT DEEP MOISTURE...A
MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST.
LOOKING TO RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER-TIME CONVECTIVE MODE WITH
LOW END CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NEXT
WEEK.

DAYTIME HIGHS CLOSE TO SEASONAL (UPPER 80S) DURING THE BEGINNING OF
THE OUTLOOK SHOWS AN UPWARD TREND INTO THE MID 90S BY THE LATTER END
OF NEXT WEEK AS MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOW VERY
LITTLE CHANGE. /10

&&

.MARINE...A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL
PREVAIL OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A
PERSISTENT SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WEST ACROSS EASTERN AND CENTRAL GULF. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL
DRIFT DOWN INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES...BRINGING AN INCREASE IN
SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE MARINE AREA THIS WEEKEND...BUT
DIMINISHING AGAIN SOMEWHAT EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE
LOCALLY HIGHER NEAR STORMS THAT DEVELOP...BUT OTHERWISE RELATIVELY
SMALL SEAS EXPECTED. 12/DS

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A MODERATE DEEP MIXED LAYER WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
RESULTS IN VERY HIGH DISPERSIONS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND PORTIONS OF INTERIOR SOUTHWEST ALABAMA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. LATEST GRIDDED DISPERSION INDEX RATINGS REACH BETWEEN 100
AND 120 OVER THESE AREAS. THESE VERY HIGH RATINGS SUGGEST HAZARDOUS
FIRE CONTROL CONDITIONS. OTHER HAZARDS THIS WEEKEND WILL BE FREQUENT
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY AND BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS IN AND NEAR SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS STORMS. /10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      76  88  74  89  74 /  20  50  40  50  40
PENSACOLA   77  89  75  88  75 /  20  50  30  40  30
DESTIN      79  88  79  88  79 /  10  50  30  50  30
EVERGREEN   73  89  73  89  73 /  20  70  40  50  40
WAYNESBORO  73  89  73  87  73 /  40  60  50  50  50
CAMDEN      73  87  72  88  72 /  30  60  50  50  50
CRESTVIEW   73  90  73  90  73 /  20  60  30  50  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 032103
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
403 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT]...AS EXPECTED WE HAVE
VERY LITTLE CONVECTION OVER THE FCST AREA TODAY...ALTHOUGH A FEW
ISOLATED STORMS ARE TRYING TO DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE WESTERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE (SO FAR MAINLY JUST EAST OF OUR FCST AREA). AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR
EARLY EVENING FURTHER INLAND AS WELL...BUT MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN
RAINFREE THROUGH MIDNIGHT. AS WE APPROACH DAYBREAK ON SATURDAY (4TH
OF JULY)...THE SFC BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN INITIATING SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA TODAY WILL BE
SETTLING INTO EXTREME NORTHERN PORTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA.
THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE MOVING SOUTH TOWARD OUR AREA AS A RESULT OF A
DEEPENING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. MODELS
ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A FEW PIECES OF ENERGY
ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH TOMORROW. THE SFC BOUNDARY
BEING CLOSER AND ACTING AS A FOCUS...COMBINED WITH THE INCREASED
UPPER SUPPORT AS WELL AS DIURNAL HEATING PATTERN AND A VERY MOIST
AIRMASS SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS
TOMORROW...MOST LIKELY OVER NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FCST AREA.
WHILE NOT A COMPLETE WASHOUT FOR MOST AREAS...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT JUST ABOUT ANYTIME/ANYWHERE TOMORROW SO BE PREPARED.
WHILE THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LOW...A FEW STRONG TO EVEN MARGINALLY
SEVERE STORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE. LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE LOWER
70S INLAND TO THE MID/UPPER 70S AT THE COAST. HIGHS ON THE 4TH IN THE
UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S...BUT HIGH DEWPOINTS WILL PRODUCE HEAT
INDICES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S. 12/DS

SATURDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SLIDES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
MID-SOUTH AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA SATURDAY NIGHT...WHICH
UPON INTERACTING WITH A DEEPLY MOIST COLUMN OF AIR RESIDING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST SUGGESTS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
THROUGH THE NIGHT. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGING FROM 1.7 TO
1.9 INCHES...STORMS WILL BE EFFICIENT IN THE PRODUCTION OF LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAIN. FREQUENT LIGHTNING ACTIVITY AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS CAN
ALSO BE EXPECTED IN THE STRONGER STORMS. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE EXTENDS WESTWARD INTO THE GULF...MAINTAINING A LIGHT
SOUTHWEST FLOW AND MUGGY NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES. LOWS 73 TO
76...EXCEPT IN THE UPPER 70S AT THE BEACHES. /10

.LONG TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY]...UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS MIGRATES
EASTWARD SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THEN OPENS UP/WEAKENS TUESDAY. THE HIGH
LEVEL FLOW FLATTENS BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH A NARROW MID LEVEL
RIDGE SETTING UP FROM TEXAS...INTO THE SOUTHEAST.

WITH MID LEVEL IMPULSES ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE HIGH LEVEL TROF
AXIS SUNDAY AND MONDAY ALONG WITH PERSISTENT DEEP MOISTURE...A
MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST.
LOOKING TO RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER-TIME CONVECTIVE MODE WITH
LOW END CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NEXT
WEEK.

DAYTIME HIGHS CLOSE TO SEASONAL (UPPER 80S) DURING THE BEGINNING OF
THE OUTLOOK SHOWS AN UPWARD TREND INTO THE MID 90S BY THE LATTER END
OF NEXT WEEK AS MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOW VERY
LITTLE CHANGE. /10

&&

.AVIATION...
03/18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY
WITH ONLY A VERY ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE REGION. INCREASED
COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA ON SATURDAY...WITH PERIODS OF MVFR VSBYS/CIGS
IN AND NEAR THE STORMS. PREVAILING LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
EXPECTED WITH BRIEF STRONGER/GUSTY WINDS IN AND NEAR THE STORMS.
12/DS

&&

.MARINE...A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL
PREVAIL OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A
PERSISTENT SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WEST ACROSS EASTERN AND CENTRAL GULF. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL
DRIFT DOWN INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES...BRINGING AN INCREASE IN
SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE MARINE AREA THIS WEEKEND...BUT
DIMINISHING AGAIN SOMEWHAT EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE
LOCALLY HIGHER NEAR STORMS THAT DEVELOP...BUT OTHERWISE RELATIVELY
SMALL SEAS EXPECTED. 12/DS

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A MODERATE DEEP MIXED LAYER WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
RESULTS IN VERY HIGH DISPERSIONS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND PORTIONS OF INTERIOR SOUTHWEST ALABAMA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. LATEST GRIDDED DISPERSION INDEX RATINGS REACH BETWEEN 100
AND 120 OVER THESE AREAS. THESE VERY HIGH RATINGS SUGGEST HAZARDOUS
FIRE CONTROL CONDITIONS. OTHER HAZARDS THIS WEEKEND WILL BE FREQUENT
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY AND BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS IN AND NEAR SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS STORMS. /10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      76  88  74  89  74 /  20  50  40  50  40
PENSACOLA   77  89  75  88  75 /  20  50  30  40  30
DESTIN      79  88  79  88  79 /  10  50  30  50  30
EVERGREEN   73  89  73  89  73 /  20  70  40  50  40
WAYNESBORO  73  89  73  87  73 /  40  60  50  50  50
CAMDEN      73  87  72  88  72 /  30  60  50  50  50
CRESTVIEW   73  90  73  90  73 /  20  60  30  50  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 032103
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
403 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT]...AS EXPECTED WE HAVE
VERY LITTLE CONVECTION OVER THE FCST AREA TODAY...ALTHOUGH A FEW
ISOLATED STORMS ARE TRYING TO DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE WESTERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE (SO FAR MAINLY JUST EAST OF OUR FCST AREA). AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR
EARLY EVENING FURTHER INLAND AS WELL...BUT MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN
RAINFREE THROUGH MIDNIGHT. AS WE APPROACH DAYBREAK ON SATURDAY (4TH
OF JULY)...THE SFC BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN INITIATING SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA TODAY WILL BE
SETTLING INTO EXTREME NORTHERN PORTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA.
THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE MOVING SOUTH TOWARD OUR AREA AS A RESULT OF A
DEEPENING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. MODELS
ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A FEW PIECES OF ENERGY
ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH TOMORROW. THE SFC BOUNDARY
BEING CLOSER AND ACTING AS A FOCUS...COMBINED WITH THE INCREASED
UPPER SUPPORT AS WELL AS DIURNAL HEATING PATTERN AND A VERY MOIST
AIRMASS SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS
TOMORROW...MOST LIKELY OVER NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FCST AREA.
WHILE NOT A COMPLETE WASHOUT FOR MOST AREAS...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT JUST ABOUT ANYTIME/ANYWHERE TOMORROW SO BE PREPARED.
WHILE THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LOW...A FEW STRONG TO EVEN MARGINALLY
SEVERE STORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE. LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE LOWER
70S INLAND TO THE MID/UPPER 70S AT THE COAST. HIGHS ON THE 4TH IN THE
UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S...BUT HIGH DEWPOINTS WILL PRODUCE HEAT
INDICES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S. 12/DS

SATURDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SLIDES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
MID-SOUTH AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA SATURDAY NIGHT...WHICH
UPON INTERACTING WITH A DEEPLY MOIST COLUMN OF AIR RESIDING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST SUGGESTS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
THROUGH THE NIGHT. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGING FROM 1.7 TO
1.9 INCHES...STORMS WILL BE EFFICIENT IN THE PRODUCTION OF LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAIN. FREQUENT LIGHTNING ACTIVITY AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS CAN
ALSO BE EXPECTED IN THE STRONGER STORMS. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE EXTENDS WESTWARD INTO THE GULF...MAINTAINING A LIGHT
SOUTHWEST FLOW AND MUGGY NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES. LOWS 73 TO
76...EXCEPT IN THE UPPER 70S AT THE BEACHES. /10

.LONG TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY]...UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS MIGRATES
EASTWARD SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THEN OPENS UP/WEAKENS TUESDAY. THE HIGH
LEVEL FLOW FLATTENS BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH A NARROW MID LEVEL
RIDGE SETTING UP FROM TEXAS...INTO THE SOUTHEAST.

WITH MID LEVEL IMPULSES ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE HIGH LEVEL TROF
AXIS SUNDAY AND MONDAY ALONG WITH PERSISTENT DEEP MOISTURE...A
MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST.
LOOKING TO RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER-TIME CONVECTIVE MODE WITH
LOW END CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NEXT
WEEK.

DAYTIME HIGHS CLOSE TO SEASONAL (UPPER 80S) DURING THE BEGINNING OF
THE OUTLOOK SHOWS AN UPWARD TREND INTO THE MID 90S BY THE LATTER END
OF NEXT WEEK AS MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOW VERY
LITTLE CHANGE. /10

&&

.AVIATION...
03/18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY
WITH ONLY A VERY ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE REGION. INCREASED
COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA ON SATURDAY...WITH PERIODS OF MVFR VSBYS/CIGS
IN AND NEAR THE STORMS. PREVAILING LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
EXPECTED WITH BRIEF STRONGER/GUSTY WINDS IN AND NEAR THE STORMS.
12/DS

&&

.MARINE...A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL
PREVAIL OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A
PERSISTENT SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WEST ACROSS EASTERN AND CENTRAL GULF. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL
DRIFT DOWN INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES...BRINGING AN INCREASE IN
SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE MARINE AREA THIS WEEKEND...BUT
DIMINISHING AGAIN SOMEWHAT EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE
LOCALLY HIGHER NEAR STORMS THAT DEVELOP...BUT OTHERWISE RELATIVELY
SMALL SEAS EXPECTED. 12/DS

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A MODERATE DEEP MIXED LAYER WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
RESULTS IN VERY HIGH DISPERSIONS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND PORTIONS OF INTERIOR SOUTHWEST ALABAMA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. LATEST GRIDDED DISPERSION INDEX RATINGS REACH BETWEEN 100
AND 120 OVER THESE AREAS. THESE VERY HIGH RATINGS SUGGEST HAZARDOUS
FIRE CONTROL CONDITIONS. OTHER HAZARDS THIS WEEKEND WILL BE FREQUENT
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY AND BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS IN AND NEAR SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS STORMS. /10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      76  88  74  89  74 /  20  50  40  50  40
PENSACOLA   77  89  75  88  75 /  20  50  30  40  30
DESTIN      79  88  79  88  79 /  10  50  30  50  30
EVERGREEN   73  89  73  89  73 /  20  70  40  50  40
WAYNESBORO  73  89  73  87  73 /  40  60  50  50  50
CAMDEN      73  87  72  88  72 /  30  60  50  50  50
CRESTVIEW   73  90  73  90  73 /  20  60  30  50  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMOB 031017
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
517 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
CONTINUES TO SPAN ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH GENERAL WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVALENT OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION ON THE BASE OF THIS FEATURE. A SURFACE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO STRETCH ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO EARLY THIS MORNING...WHILE FARTHER TO OUR
NORTH...A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED WEST TO EAST FROM THE
VICINITY OF NORTHERN OK/AR THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION.
RADAR IS VERY QUIET FOR A CHANGE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER THICKENING
OVER MUCH OF THE REGION...WHICH HAS LIMITED NOCTURNAL COOLING.
TEMPERATURES AT 4 AM CDT MOSTLY STILL RANGED IN THE MID 70S TO
AROUND 80 DEGREES...WHILE DEWPOINTS WERE NOT MUCH LOWER...MAKING FOR
VERY MUGGY CONDITIONS.

A MOIST ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE NORTHERN
2/3RDS OF MS/AL TODAY...WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. SHORT RANGE
MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE BULK OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF MS/AL
TODAY WITHIN BETTER MID LEVEL FLOW AND DEEPER MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL DATA DOES INDICATE
POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY OVER INTERIOR PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON IN
THE VICINITY OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES. WILL KEEP
POPS GENERALLY LESS THAN 20 PERCENT OVER THESE AREAS...AND A DRY
FORECAST CLOSER TO THE COAST WITHIN AN AREA OF SLIGHTLY DRIER AND
MORE SUBSIDENT AIR IN THE VICINITY OF THE BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT.
MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1500 J/KG OVER THE INTERIOR AND 850-500 MB
LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.5 C/KM COULD SUPPORT BUOYANT UPDRAFTS WITH ANY
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS TODAY...SO ISOLATED STORMS COULD BECOME
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE AND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 45 MPH...SMALL HAIL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. ANOTHER SEASONABLY HOT AND HUMID DAY IS
OTHERWISE ANTICIPATED WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS REACHING AROUND 90 NEAR
THE COAST AND THE LOWER TO MID 90S INLAND WITH MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES
AROUND 100.

MID LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS MUCH OF THE DEEP SOUTH
TONIGHT AS THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OVER THE
OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION. THE MAJORITY OF SHORT RANGE MODEL
SOLUTIONS INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZING MCS OVER MUCH OF
NORTHERN MS/AL ON THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AXIS TONIGHT AND AHEAD OF
THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE/LIFT MAY SPREAD
FAR ENOUGH SOUTH ALONG WITH POTENTIAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES TO AID IN
THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE CWFA LATE TONIGHT. HAVE KEPT MENTION
OF CONVECTION GENERALLY NORTH OF A WIGGINS TO LUVERNE LINE FOR NOW
TONIGHT WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS NEAR THE COAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL RANGE IN THE TYPICAL LOWER 70S IN THE NORTH TO THE MID 70S TO
AROUND 80 NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. /21

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS MODERATE.

[HOLIDAY WEEKEND]...MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE
AND BEGIN TO LIFT OUT OF THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND. IMPULSES
ROUNDING THE TROUGH WILL POSSIBLY LEAD TO BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS EACH AFTERNOON. FOR NOW...LEANING TOWARD BEST RAIN CHANCES
REMAINING NORTH OF THE CWA ON SATURDAY WITH ONLY 30 TO 40 PERCENT
POPS. TRENDED SLIGHTLY HIGHER ON POPS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND MAY
CONTINUE TRENDING HIGHER ON UPCOMING PACKAGES IF MODELS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST BETTER COVERAGE. EXPECTING SHOWERS AND STORMS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS BOTH NIGHTS. NOT EXPECTING A WASH OUT THIS
WEEKEND BUT HAVE AN ALTERNATIVE PLAN READY IF YOU HAVE OUTDOOR EVENTS
SCHEDULED FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND SINCE SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORMS
WILL CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. LIGHTNING WILL BE A
BIG SAFETY HAZARD IN STRONGER STORMS ON JULY 4TH...SO BE PREPARED TO
MOVE TO SHELTER IN CASE OF THREATENING WEATHER.

HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. FOR
INDEPENDENCE DAY...EXPECT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 90S FOR AREAS
GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR AND UPPER 80S TO THE
WEST AND ALONG THE BEACHES. HEAT INDICES MAY APPROACH 99 IN SOME
LOCATIONS. BY SUNDAY...EXPECTING THE HEAT TO SUBSIDE JUST A BIT WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL INTO THE LOW 70S INLAND...HOVERING IN THE UPPER 70S ALONG THE
COAST. 07/MB

.LONG TERM [MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY]...AS THE TROUGH SLIDES EAST EARLY
IN THE PERIOD...WEAK RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION. DESPITE
THE PRESENCE OF THAT RIDGE...EXPECTING ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA TO KEEP SCATTERED STORMS IN THE FORECAST EACH
AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE
FOCUSED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA ALONG THE SEA BREEZE.

RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO INFLUENCE HIGH TEMPERATURES BY WEEKS END.
TEMPERATURES TREND WARMER WITH MID 90S EXPECTED LATE IN THE WORK
WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL MIRROR EACH OTHER THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WITH
LOW 70S INLAND AND UPPER 70S FOR THE BEACHES AND ALONG THE COAST.
07/MB

&&

.AVIATION...03.12Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH BROKEN MID/UPPER LEVEL
CLOUD DECKS AND SCATTERED AFTERNOON CU. ISOLATED TSRA THIS AFTERNOON
SHOULD MAINLY BE CONFINED TO INTERIOR SOUTHWEST AL...SO WILL KEEP
MENTION OUT OF THE LOCAL TERMINAL FORECAST SITES FOR NOW. SOUTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 5 KNOTS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD PICK UP TO 8-12 KNOTS
WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON. /21

&&

.MARINE...A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL
PREVAIL OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A
PERSISTENT SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY BEFORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST
THIS WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE
LOCALLY HIGHER NEAR STORMS THAT DEVELOP. /21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      91  75  89  72  89 /  10  10  40  20  30
PENSACOLA   91  76  88  73  87 /  10  10  30  20  30
DESTIN      89  79  88  75  87 /  10  10  30  20  30
EVERGREEN   93  72  91  70  88 /  20  20  40  30  40
WAYNESBORO  94  73  89  70  87 /  10  30  40  30  50
CAMDEN      93  73  90  70  87 /  20  30  40  30  50
CRESTVIEW   93  72  91  71  89 /  10  10  30  30  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 031017
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
517 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
CONTINUES TO SPAN ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH GENERAL WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVALENT OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION ON THE BASE OF THIS FEATURE. A SURFACE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO STRETCH ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO EARLY THIS MORNING...WHILE FARTHER TO OUR
NORTH...A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED WEST TO EAST FROM THE
VICINITY OF NORTHERN OK/AR THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION.
RADAR IS VERY QUIET FOR A CHANGE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER THICKENING
OVER MUCH OF THE REGION...WHICH HAS LIMITED NOCTURNAL COOLING.
TEMPERATURES AT 4 AM CDT MOSTLY STILL RANGED IN THE MID 70S TO
AROUND 80 DEGREES...WHILE DEWPOINTS WERE NOT MUCH LOWER...MAKING FOR
VERY MUGGY CONDITIONS.

A MOIST ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE NORTHERN
2/3RDS OF MS/AL TODAY...WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. SHORT RANGE
MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE BULK OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF MS/AL
TODAY WITHIN BETTER MID LEVEL FLOW AND DEEPER MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL DATA DOES INDICATE
POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY OVER INTERIOR PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON IN
THE VICINITY OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES. WILL KEEP
POPS GENERALLY LESS THAN 20 PERCENT OVER THESE AREAS...AND A DRY
FORECAST CLOSER TO THE COAST WITHIN AN AREA OF SLIGHTLY DRIER AND
MORE SUBSIDENT AIR IN THE VICINITY OF THE BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT.
MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1500 J/KG OVER THE INTERIOR AND 850-500 MB
LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.5 C/KM COULD SUPPORT BUOYANT UPDRAFTS WITH ANY
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS TODAY...SO ISOLATED STORMS COULD BECOME
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE AND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 45 MPH...SMALL HAIL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. ANOTHER SEASONABLY HOT AND HUMID DAY IS
OTHERWISE ANTICIPATED WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS REACHING AROUND 90 NEAR
THE COAST AND THE LOWER TO MID 90S INLAND WITH MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES
AROUND 100.

MID LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS MUCH OF THE DEEP SOUTH
TONIGHT AS THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OVER THE
OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION. THE MAJORITY OF SHORT RANGE MODEL
SOLUTIONS INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZING MCS OVER MUCH OF
NORTHERN MS/AL ON THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AXIS TONIGHT AND AHEAD OF
THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE/LIFT MAY SPREAD
FAR ENOUGH SOUTH ALONG WITH POTENTIAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES TO AID IN
THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE CWFA LATE TONIGHT. HAVE KEPT MENTION
OF CONVECTION GENERALLY NORTH OF A WIGGINS TO LUVERNE LINE FOR NOW
TONIGHT WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS NEAR THE COAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL RANGE IN THE TYPICAL LOWER 70S IN THE NORTH TO THE MID 70S TO
AROUND 80 NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. /21

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS MODERATE.

[HOLIDAY WEEKEND]...MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE
AND BEGIN TO LIFT OUT OF THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND. IMPULSES
ROUNDING THE TROUGH WILL POSSIBLY LEAD TO BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS EACH AFTERNOON. FOR NOW...LEANING TOWARD BEST RAIN CHANCES
REMAINING NORTH OF THE CWA ON SATURDAY WITH ONLY 30 TO 40 PERCENT
POPS. TRENDED SLIGHTLY HIGHER ON POPS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND MAY
CONTINUE TRENDING HIGHER ON UPCOMING PACKAGES IF MODELS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST BETTER COVERAGE. EXPECTING SHOWERS AND STORMS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS BOTH NIGHTS. NOT EXPECTING A WASH OUT THIS
WEEKEND BUT HAVE AN ALTERNATIVE PLAN READY IF YOU HAVE OUTDOOR EVENTS
SCHEDULED FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND SINCE SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORMS
WILL CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. LIGHTNING WILL BE A
BIG SAFETY HAZARD IN STRONGER STORMS ON JULY 4TH...SO BE PREPARED TO
MOVE TO SHELTER IN CASE OF THREATENING WEATHER.

HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. FOR
INDEPENDENCE DAY...EXPECT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 90S FOR AREAS
GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR AND UPPER 80S TO THE
WEST AND ALONG THE BEACHES. HEAT INDICES MAY APPROACH 99 IN SOME
LOCATIONS. BY SUNDAY...EXPECTING THE HEAT TO SUBSIDE JUST A BIT WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL INTO THE LOW 70S INLAND...HOVERING IN THE UPPER 70S ALONG THE
COAST. 07/MB

.LONG TERM [MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY]...AS THE TROUGH SLIDES EAST EARLY
IN THE PERIOD...WEAK RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION. DESPITE
THE PRESENCE OF THAT RIDGE...EXPECTING ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA TO KEEP SCATTERED STORMS IN THE FORECAST EACH
AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE
FOCUSED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA ALONG THE SEA BREEZE.

RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO INFLUENCE HIGH TEMPERATURES BY WEEKS END.
TEMPERATURES TREND WARMER WITH MID 90S EXPECTED LATE IN THE WORK
WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL MIRROR EACH OTHER THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WITH
LOW 70S INLAND AND UPPER 70S FOR THE BEACHES AND ALONG THE COAST.
07/MB

&&

.AVIATION...03.12Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH BROKEN MID/UPPER LEVEL
CLOUD DECKS AND SCATTERED AFTERNOON CU. ISOLATED TSRA THIS AFTERNOON
SHOULD MAINLY BE CONFINED TO INTERIOR SOUTHWEST AL...SO WILL KEEP
MENTION OUT OF THE LOCAL TERMINAL FORECAST SITES FOR NOW. SOUTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 5 KNOTS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD PICK UP TO 8-12 KNOTS
WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON. /21

&&

.MARINE...A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL
PREVAIL OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A
PERSISTENT SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY BEFORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST
THIS WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE
LOCALLY HIGHER NEAR STORMS THAT DEVELOP. /21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      91  75  89  72  89 /  10  10  40  20  30
PENSACOLA   91  76  88  73  87 /  10  10  30  20  30
DESTIN      89  79  88  75  87 /  10  10  30  20  30
EVERGREEN   93  72  91  70  88 /  20  20  40  30  40
WAYNESBORO  94  73  89  70  87 /  10  30  40  30  50
CAMDEN      93  73  90  70  87 /  20  30  40  30  50
CRESTVIEW   93  72  91  71  89 /  10  10  30  30  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMOB 030456 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE TO AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1150 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015


.AVIATION... 06Z AVIATION...VFR CIGS/VISBYS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME LOCALIZED DROPS IN VISBYS TO MVFR LEVELS DUE
TO LOCALIZED FOG DEVELOPMENT. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT
EXPECTED AGAIN FRIDAY. MAINLY VFR LEVEL CIGS AND VISBYS...WITH
LOCALIZED DROPS IN THE HEAVIER RAINS OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
TSRA.

/16


&&


.UPDATE...CURRENT PACKAGE ON TRACK. A SMALL CHANCE STILL EXISTS FOR
RAIN ACTIVITY TO THE NORTH MOVING SOUTH OVERNIGHT...AFFECTING MAINLY
NORTHERN-MOST PORTIONS OF THE FA. HAVE NOT REMOVED PRECIP AS A
RESULT. TEMPS ON TRACK.

/16

&&

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT]...AFTER A ROUND OF STRONG STORMS
OVER SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF FCST AREA LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON...THINGS HAVE IMPROVED RAPIDLY. FAIRLY WIDESPREAD DENSE
MID/UPPER UPPER LEVEL CLOUD DECK BLOWING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA FROM
A MCS THAT WAS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING HAS
MODERATED DAYTIME MAX TEMPS BY SEVERAL DEGREES...SO ATMOSPHERE HAS
NOT HAD THE OPPORTUNITY TO BECOME AS UNSTABLE AS THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS FOR MOST LOCATIONS. AFTER THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SHOWERS AND
STORMS ENDED...NO ECHOES HAVE BEEN NOTED ON AREA RADARS. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH...IF ANY...PCPN OVERNIGHT. MAY SEE SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR STORMS EARLY OVER NORTHERN COUNTIES AS A WEAK OUTFLOW
FROM THE EARLIER MCS MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...BUT PRIMARILY 20
PERCENT OR LESS POPS TONIGHT. THE SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES...MAINLY OVER
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA...CONTINUES ON FRIDAY AS A MODERATELY
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS GETS A LITTLE ADDITIONAL SUPPORT OVER THE
NORTHERN ZONES WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA. THE FEW STORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP TOMORROW UP OVER OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES COULD BE STRONG TO
BRIEFLY SEVERE...AND THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER UP
THAT WAY (MAINLY NORTH OF HWY 84). A LITTLE WARMER TOMORROW THAN
TODAY...WITH HIGH TEMPS RETURNING TO THE LOWER 90S MOST INTERIOR
LOCATIONS BUT STILL UPPER 80S COASTAL. LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM
LOWER 70S INLAND TO MID/UPPER 70S COASTAL. 12/DS

FRIDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS IS FORECAST TO BE POSITIONED
FROM THE GREAT LAKES...SOUTHWEST TO ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER DELTA. A QUASI-STATIONARY SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHES
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE VIRGINIAS. SOME INDICATIONS EXIST
THAT A MODEST MID LEVEL IMPULSE AT THE BASE OF THE TROF WILL BE
DROPPING SOUTHEAST...ENHANCING ASCENT ALONG THIS FRONT. POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO ORIGINATE ALONG THE
INTERSECTION OF THE FRONT AND MID LEVEL IMPULSE...WITH CONVECTION
SPREADING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH OVERNIGHT. AN OUTFLOW
ADVANCING SOUTHEAST WELL AWAY FROM THE CONVECTION TAPS DEEP MOISTURE
(PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.8 INCHES OVER THE INTERIOR) WHICH
MAY INITIATE MORE STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE INTERIOR LATE IN THE
NIGHT. THESE SUMMER- TIME NOCTURNAL STORMS CAN BE FREQUENT LIGHTNING
PRODUCERS...CAN PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS. A
FEW STORMS POSSIBLY SEVERE.

LOW LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC...CONTINUES
TO EXTEND WESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF AND SOUTHEAST US. LITTLE
CHANGE IN OVERNIGHT LOWS...LOWER 70S INTERIOR TO MID-UPPER 70S
BEACHES. /10

.LONG TERM [INDEPENDENCE DAY THROUGH THURSDAY]...MID LEVEL TROF
AMPLIFIES AS IT DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY ON THE FOURTH. MODEST LIFT SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA...COUPLED
WITH PERSISTENT DEEP MOISTURE AND ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY MAY VERY
WELL BRING SOME HEADACHES FOR FOURTH OF JULY OUTDOOR EVENTS WITH THE
PASSAGE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS. FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE A
MAJOR SAFETY HAZARD IN THE STRONGER STORM CLUSTERS ON JULY 4TH...SO
BE PREPARED TO MOVE TO A PLACE OF SHELTER IN THE CASE OF THREATENING
WEATHER.

UPPER TROF REMAINS SLIPS EASTWARD SUNDAY AND MONDAY FROM THE
APPALACHIANS TO THE SOUTHEAST...AND THEN BEGINS TO FILL/WEAKEN BY MID
WEEK AS A NARROW MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH.
DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF THE RIDGE...ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
SHOULD BE AVAILABLE TO AID IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS EACH DAY.
SEASONABLY HOT/HUMID CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. /10

&&

.MARINE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. THIS
WILL PROMOTE A CONTINUED LIGHT TO MODERATE PRIMARY SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ALSO KEEP MOST OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND GENERALLY AWAY FROM THE
MARINE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...HOWEVER...SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS. 12/DS


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A MODERATE DEEP MIXED LAYER WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
RESULTS IN VERY HIGH DISPERSIONS ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE
REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LATEST GRIDDED DISPERSION INDEX RATINGS
REACH BETWEEN 110 AND 120 FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE INTERIOR OF
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND INTERIOR OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA. THESE VERY
HIGH RATINGS SUGGEST HAZARDOUS FIRE CONTROL CONDITIONS. OVER THE
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...DISPERSION RATINGS ABOVE 80 ALONG AND
NORTH OF I-10. /10


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      74  91  74  90  75 /  10  10  20  30  20
PENSACOLA   76  90  77  90  76 /  10  10  20  30  20
DESTIN      79  88  79  90  78 /  10  10  20  30  20
EVERGREEN   72  92  72  93  73 /  10  20  20  30  30
WAYNESBORO  72  92  72  90  72 /  20  10  40  50  40
CAMDEN      72  92  72  91  72 /  20  20  40  40  40
CRESTVIEW   74  92  71  93  73 /  10  20  20  30  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMOB 030456 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE TO AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1150 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015


.AVIATION... 06Z AVIATION...VFR CIGS/VISBYS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME LOCALIZED DROPS IN VISBYS TO MVFR LEVELS DUE
TO LOCALIZED FOG DEVELOPMENT. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT
EXPECTED AGAIN FRIDAY. MAINLY VFR LEVEL CIGS AND VISBYS...WITH
LOCALIZED DROPS IN THE HEAVIER RAINS OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
TSRA.

/16


&&


.UPDATE...CURRENT PACKAGE ON TRACK. A SMALL CHANCE STILL EXISTS FOR
RAIN ACTIVITY TO THE NORTH MOVING SOUTH OVERNIGHT...AFFECTING MAINLY
NORTHERN-MOST PORTIONS OF THE FA. HAVE NOT REMOVED PRECIP AS A
RESULT. TEMPS ON TRACK.

/16

&&

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT]...AFTER A ROUND OF STRONG STORMS
OVER SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF FCST AREA LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON...THINGS HAVE IMPROVED RAPIDLY. FAIRLY WIDESPREAD DENSE
MID/UPPER UPPER LEVEL CLOUD DECK BLOWING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA FROM
A MCS THAT WAS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING HAS
MODERATED DAYTIME MAX TEMPS BY SEVERAL DEGREES...SO ATMOSPHERE HAS
NOT HAD THE OPPORTUNITY TO BECOME AS UNSTABLE AS THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS FOR MOST LOCATIONS. AFTER THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SHOWERS AND
STORMS ENDED...NO ECHOES HAVE BEEN NOTED ON AREA RADARS. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH...IF ANY...PCPN OVERNIGHT. MAY SEE SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR STORMS EARLY OVER NORTHERN COUNTIES AS A WEAK OUTFLOW
FROM THE EARLIER MCS MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...BUT PRIMARILY 20
PERCENT OR LESS POPS TONIGHT. THE SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES...MAINLY OVER
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA...CONTINUES ON FRIDAY AS A MODERATELY
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS GETS A LITTLE ADDITIONAL SUPPORT OVER THE
NORTHERN ZONES WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA. THE FEW STORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP TOMORROW UP OVER OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES COULD BE STRONG TO
BRIEFLY SEVERE...AND THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER UP
THAT WAY (MAINLY NORTH OF HWY 84). A LITTLE WARMER TOMORROW THAN
TODAY...WITH HIGH TEMPS RETURNING TO THE LOWER 90S MOST INTERIOR
LOCATIONS BUT STILL UPPER 80S COASTAL. LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM
LOWER 70S INLAND TO MID/UPPER 70S COASTAL. 12/DS

FRIDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS IS FORECAST TO BE POSITIONED
FROM THE GREAT LAKES...SOUTHWEST TO ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER DELTA. A QUASI-STATIONARY SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHES
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE VIRGINIAS. SOME INDICATIONS EXIST
THAT A MODEST MID LEVEL IMPULSE AT THE BASE OF THE TROF WILL BE
DROPPING SOUTHEAST...ENHANCING ASCENT ALONG THIS FRONT. POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO ORIGINATE ALONG THE
INTERSECTION OF THE FRONT AND MID LEVEL IMPULSE...WITH CONVECTION
SPREADING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH OVERNIGHT. AN OUTFLOW
ADVANCING SOUTHEAST WELL AWAY FROM THE CONVECTION TAPS DEEP MOISTURE
(PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.8 INCHES OVER THE INTERIOR) WHICH
MAY INITIATE MORE STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE INTERIOR LATE IN THE
NIGHT. THESE SUMMER- TIME NOCTURNAL STORMS CAN BE FREQUENT LIGHTNING
PRODUCERS...CAN PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS. A
FEW STORMS POSSIBLY SEVERE.

LOW LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC...CONTINUES
TO EXTEND WESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF AND SOUTHEAST US. LITTLE
CHANGE IN OVERNIGHT LOWS...LOWER 70S INTERIOR TO MID-UPPER 70S
BEACHES. /10

.LONG TERM [INDEPENDENCE DAY THROUGH THURSDAY]...MID LEVEL TROF
AMPLIFIES AS IT DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY ON THE FOURTH. MODEST LIFT SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA...COUPLED
WITH PERSISTENT DEEP MOISTURE AND ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY MAY VERY
WELL BRING SOME HEADACHES FOR FOURTH OF JULY OUTDOOR EVENTS WITH THE
PASSAGE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS. FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE A
MAJOR SAFETY HAZARD IN THE STRONGER STORM CLUSTERS ON JULY 4TH...SO
BE PREPARED TO MOVE TO A PLACE OF SHELTER IN THE CASE OF THREATENING
WEATHER.

UPPER TROF REMAINS SLIPS EASTWARD SUNDAY AND MONDAY FROM THE
APPALACHIANS TO THE SOUTHEAST...AND THEN BEGINS TO FILL/WEAKEN BY MID
WEEK AS A NARROW MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH.
DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF THE RIDGE...ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
SHOULD BE AVAILABLE TO AID IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS EACH DAY.
SEASONABLY HOT/HUMID CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. /10

&&

.MARINE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. THIS
WILL PROMOTE A CONTINUED LIGHT TO MODERATE PRIMARY SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ALSO KEEP MOST OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND GENERALLY AWAY FROM THE
MARINE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...HOWEVER...SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS. 12/DS


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A MODERATE DEEP MIXED LAYER WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
RESULTS IN VERY HIGH DISPERSIONS ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE
REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LATEST GRIDDED DISPERSION INDEX RATINGS
REACH BETWEEN 110 AND 120 FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE INTERIOR OF
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND INTERIOR OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA. THESE VERY
HIGH RATINGS SUGGEST HAZARDOUS FIRE CONTROL CONDITIONS. OVER THE
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...DISPERSION RATINGS ABOVE 80 ALONG AND
NORTH OF I-10. /10


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      74  91  74  90  75 /  10  10  20  30  20
PENSACOLA   76  90  77  90  76 /  10  10  20  30  20
DESTIN      79  88  79  90  78 /  10  10  20  30  20
EVERGREEN   72  92  72  93  73 /  10  20  20  30  30
WAYNESBORO  72  92  72  90  72 /  20  10  40  50  40
CAMDEN      72  92  72  91  72 /  20  20  40  40  40
CRESTVIEW   74  92  71  93  73 /  10  20  20  30  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 030252 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
950 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...CURRENT PACKAGE ON TRACK. A SMALL CHANCE STILL EXISTS FOR
RAIN ACTIVITY TO THE NORTH MOVING SOUTH OVERNIGHT...AFFECTING MAINLY
NORTHERN-MOST PORTIONS OF THE FA. HAVE NOT REMOVED PRECIP AS A
RESULT. TEMPS ON TRACK.

/16

&&

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT]...AFTER A ROUND OF STRONG STORMS
OVER SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF FCST AREA LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON...THINGS HAVE IMPROVED RAPIDLY. FAIRLY WIDESPREAD DENSE
MID/UPPER UPPER LEVEL CLOUD DECK BLOWING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA FROM
A MCS THAT WAS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING HAS
MODERATED DAYTIME MAX TEMPS BY SEVERAL DEGREES...SO ATMOSPHERE HAS
NOT HAD THE OPPORTUNITY TO BECOME AS UNSTABLE AS THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS FOR MOST LOCATIONS. AFTER THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SHOWERS AND
STORMS ENDED...NO ECHOES HAVE BEEN NOTED ON AREA RADARS. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH...IF ANY...PCPN OVERNIGHT. MAY SEE SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR STORMS EARLY OVER NORTHERN COUNTIES AS A WEAK OUTFLOW
FROM THE EARLIER MCS MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...BUT PRIMARILY 20
PERCENT OR LESS POPS TONIGHT. THE SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES...MAINLY OVER
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA...CONTINUES ON FRIDAY AS A MODERATELY
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS GETS A LITTLE ADDITIONAL SUPPORT OVER THE
NORTHERN ZONES WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA. THE FEW STORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP TOMORROW UP OVER OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES COULD BE STRONG TO
BRIEFLY SEVERE...AND THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER UP
THAT WAY (MAINLY NORTH OF HWY 84). A LITTLE WARMER TOMORROW THAN
TODAY...WITH HIGH TEMPS RETURNING TO THE LOWER 90S MOST INTERIOR
LOCATIONS BUT STILL UPPER 80S COASTAL. LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM
LOWER 70S INLAND TO MID/UPPER 70S COASTAL. 12/DS

FRIDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS IS FORECAST TO BE POSITIONED
FROM THE GREAT LAKES...SOUTHWEST TO ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER DELTA. A QUASI-STATIONARY SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHES
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE VIRGINIAS. SOME INDICATIONS EXIST
THAT A MODEST MID LEVEL IMPULSE AT THE BASE OF THE TROF WILL BE
DROPPING SOUTHEAST...ENHANCING ASCENT ALONG THIS FRONT. POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO ORIGINATE ALONG THE
INTERSECTION OF THE FRONT AND MID LEVEL IMPULSE...WITH CONVECTION
SPREADING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH OVERNIGHT. AN OUTFLOW
ADVANCING SOUTHEAST WELL AWAY FROM THE CONVECTION TAPS DEEP MOISTURE
(PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.8 INCHES OVER THE INTERIOR) WHICH
MAY INITIATE MORE STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE INTERIOR LATE IN THE
NIGHT. THESE SUMMER- TIME NOCTURNAL STORMS CAN BE FREQUENT LIGHTNING
PRODUCERS...CAN PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS. A
FEW STORMS POSSIBLY SEVERE.

LOW LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC...CONTINUES
TO EXTEND WESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF AND SOUTHEAST US. LITTLE
CHANGE IN OVERNIGHT LOWS...LOWER 70S INTERIOR TO MID-UPPER 70S
BEACHES. /10

.LONG TERM [INDEPENDENCE DAY THROUGH THURSDAY]...MID LEVEL TROF
AMPLIFIES AS IT DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY ON THE FOURTH. MODEST LIFT SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA...COUPLED
WITH PERSISTENT DEEP MOISTURE AND ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY MAY VERY
WELL BRING SOME HEADACHES FOR FOURTH OF JULY OUTDOOR EVENTS WITH THE
PASSAGE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS. FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE A
MAJOR SAFETY HAZARD IN THE STRONGER STORM CLUSTERS ON JULY 4TH...SO
BE PREPARED TO MOVE TO A PLACE OF SHELTER IN THE CASE OF THREATENING
WEATHER.

UPPER TROF REMAINS SLIPS EASTWARD SUNDAY AND MONDAY FROM THE
APPALACHIANS TO THE SOUTHEAST...AND THEN BEGINS TO FILL/WEAKEN BY MID
WEEK AS A NARROW MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH.
DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF THE RIDGE...ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
SHOULD BE AVAILABLE TO AID IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS EACH DAY.
SEASONABLY HOT/HUMID CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. /10

&&

.AVIATION...
02/18Z TAFS...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
BUT BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS MAINLY IN AND AROUND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS EVENING AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE PRIMARILY SOUTHWEST AT 6 TO 10 KNOT
RANGE...SLIGHTLY HIGHER NEAR THE COAST IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING (AND ALSO STRONGER AND GUSTY IN AND NEAR ANY
ISOLATED STORMS). 12/DS

&&

.MARINE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. THIS
WILL PROMOTE A CONTINUED LIGHT TO MODERATE PRIMARY SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ALSO KEEP MOST OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND GENERALLY AWAY FROM THE
MARINE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...HOWEVER...SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS. 12/DS


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A MODERATE DEEP MIXED LAYER WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
RESULTS IN VERY HIGH DISPERSIONS ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE
REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LATEST GRIDDED DISPERSION INDEX RATINGS
REACH BETWEEN 110 AND 120 FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE INTERIOR OF
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND INTERIOR OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA. THESE VERY
HIGH RATINGS SUGGEST HAZARDOUS FIRE CONTROL CONDITIONS. OVER THE
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...DISPERSION RATINGS ABOVE 80 ALONG AND
NORTH OF I-10. /10


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      74  91  74  90  75 /  10  10  20  30  20
PENSACOLA   76  90  77  90  76 /  10  10  20  30  20
DESTIN      79  88  79  90  78 /  10  10  20  30  20
EVERGREEN   72  92  72  93  73 /  10  20  20  30  30
WAYNESBORO  72  92  72  90  72 /  20  10  40  50  40
CAMDEN      72  92  72  91  72 /  20  20  40  40  40
CRESTVIEW   74  92  71  93  73 /  10  20  20  30  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 030252 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
950 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...CURRENT PACKAGE ON TRACK. A SMALL CHANCE STILL EXISTS FOR
RAIN ACTIVITY TO THE NORTH MOVING SOUTH OVERNIGHT...AFFECTING MAINLY
NORTHERN-MOST PORTIONS OF THE FA. HAVE NOT REMOVED PRECIP AS A
RESULT. TEMPS ON TRACK.

/16

&&

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT]...AFTER A ROUND OF STRONG STORMS
OVER SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF FCST AREA LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON...THINGS HAVE IMPROVED RAPIDLY. FAIRLY WIDESPREAD DENSE
MID/UPPER UPPER LEVEL CLOUD DECK BLOWING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA FROM
A MCS THAT WAS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING HAS
MODERATED DAYTIME MAX TEMPS BY SEVERAL DEGREES...SO ATMOSPHERE HAS
NOT HAD THE OPPORTUNITY TO BECOME AS UNSTABLE AS THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS FOR MOST LOCATIONS. AFTER THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SHOWERS AND
STORMS ENDED...NO ECHOES HAVE BEEN NOTED ON AREA RADARS. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH...IF ANY...PCPN OVERNIGHT. MAY SEE SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR STORMS EARLY OVER NORTHERN COUNTIES AS A WEAK OUTFLOW
FROM THE EARLIER MCS MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...BUT PRIMARILY 20
PERCENT OR LESS POPS TONIGHT. THE SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES...MAINLY OVER
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA...CONTINUES ON FRIDAY AS A MODERATELY
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS GETS A LITTLE ADDITIONAL SUPPORT OVER THE
NORTHERN ZONES WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA. THE FEW STORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP TOMORROW UP OVER OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES COULD BE STRONG TO
BRIEFLY SEVERE...AND THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER UP
THAT WAY (MAINLY NORTH OF HWY 84). A LITTLE WARMER TOMORROW THAN
TODAY...WITH HIGH TEMPS RETURNING TO THE LOWER 90S MOST INTERIOR
LOCATIONS BUT STILL UPPER 80S COASTAL. LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM
LOWER 70S INLAND TO MID/UPPER 70S COASTAL. 12/DS

FRIDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS IS FORECAST TO BE POSITIONED
FROM THE GREAT LAKES...SOUTHWEST TO ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER DELTA. A QUASI-STATIONARY SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHES
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE VIRGINIAS. SOME INDICATIONS EXIST
THAT A MODEST MID LEVEL IMPULSE AT THE BASE OF THE TROF WILL BE
DROPPING SOUTHEAST...ENHANCING ASCENT ALONG THIS FRONT. POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO ORIGINATE ALONG THE
INTERSECTION OF THE FRONT AND MID LEVEL IMPULSE...WITH CONVECTION
SPREADING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH OVERNIGHT. AN OUTFLOW
ADVANCING SOUTHEAST WELL AWAY FROM THE CONVECTION TAPS DEEP MOISTURE
(PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.8 INCHES OVER THE INTERIOR) WHICH
MAY INITIATE MORE STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE INTERIOR LATE IN THE
NIGHT. THESE SUMMER- TIME NOCTURNAL STORMS CAN BE FREQUENT LIGHTNING
PRODUCERS...CAN PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS. A
FEW STORMS POSSIBLY SEVERE.

LOW LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC...CONTINUES
TO EXTEND WESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF AND SOUTHEAST US. LITTLE
CHANGE IN OVERNIGHT LOWS...LOWER 70S INTERIOR TO MID-UPPER 70S
BEACHES. /10

.LONG TERM [INDEPENDENCE DAY THROUGH THURSDAY]...MID LEVEL TROF
AMPLIFIES AS IT DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY ON THE FOURTH. MODEST LIFT SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA...COUPLED
WITH PERSISTENT DEEP MOISTURE AND ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY MAY VERY
WELL BRING SOME HEADACHES FOR FOURTH OF JULY OUTDOOR EVENTS WITH THE
PASSAGE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS. FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE A
MAJOR SAFETY HAZARD IN THE STRONGER STORM CLUSTERS ON JULY 4TH...SO
BE PREPARED TO MOVE TO A PLACE OF SHELTER IN THE CASE OF THREATENING
WEATHER.

UPPER TROF REMAINS SLIPS EASTWARD SUNDAY AND MONDAY FROM THE
APPALACHIANS TO THE SOUTHEAST...AND THEN BEGINS TO FILL/WEAKEN BY MID
WEEK AS A NARROW MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH.
DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF THE RIDGE...ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
SHOULD BE AVAILABLE TO AID IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS EACH DAY.
SEASONABLY HOT/HUMID CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. /10

&&

.AVIATION...
02/18Z TAFS...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
BUT BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS MAINLY IN AND AROUND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS EVENING AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE PRIMARILY SOUTHWEST AT 6 TO 10 KNOT
RANGE...SLIGHTLY HIGHER NEAR THE COAST IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING (AND ALSO STRONGER AND GUSTY IN AND NEAR ANY
ISOLATED STORMS). 12/DS

&&

.MARINE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. THIS
WILL PROMOTE A CONTINUED LIGHT TO MODERATE PRIMARY SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ALSO KEEP MOST OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND GENERALLY AWAY FROM THE
MARINE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...HOWEVER...SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS. 12/DS


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A MODERATE DEEP MIXED LAYER WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
RESULTS IN VERY HIGH DISPERSIONS ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE
REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LATEST GRIDDED DISPERSION INDEX RATINGS
REACH BETWEEN 110 AND 120 FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE INTERIOR OF
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND INTERIOR OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA. THESE VERY
HIGH RATINGS SUGGEST HAZARDOUS FIRE CONTROL CONDITIONS. OVER THE
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...DISPERSION RATINGS ABOVE 80 ALONG AND
NORTH OF I-10. /10


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      74  91  74  90  75 /  10  10  20  30  20
PENSACOLA   76  90  77  90  76 /  10  10  20  30  20
DESTIN      79  88  79  90  78 /  10  10  20  30  20
EVERGREEN   72  92  72  93  73 /  10  20  20  30  30
WAYNESBORO  72  92  72  90  72 /  20  10  40  50  40
CAMDEN      72  92  72  91  72 /  20  20  40  40  40
CRESTVIEW   74  92  71  93  73 /  10  20  20  30  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMOB 022100
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
400 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT]...AFTER A ROUND OF STRONG STORMS
OVER SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF FCST AREA LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON...THINGS HAVE IMPROVED RAPIDLY. FAIRLY WIDESPREAD DENSE
MID/UPPER UPPER LEVEL CLOUD DECK BLOWING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA FROM
A MCS THAT WAS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING HAS
MODERATED DAYTIME MAX TEMPS BY SEVERAL DEGREES...SO ATMOSPHERE HAS
NOT HAD THE OPPORTUNITY TO BECOME AS UNSTABLE AS THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS FOR MOST LOCATIONS. AFTER THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SHOWERS AND
STORMS ENDED...NO ECHOES HAVE BEEN NOTED ON AREA RADARS. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH...IF ANY...PCPN OVERNIGHT. MAY SEE SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR STORMS EARLY OVER NORTHERN COUNTIES AS A WEAK OUTFLOW
FROM THE EARLIER MCS MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...BUT PRIMARILY 20
PERCENT OR LESS POPS TONIGHT. THE SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES...MAINLY OVER
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA...CONTINUES ON FRIDAY AS A MODERATELY
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS GETS A LITTLE ADDITIONAL SUPPORT OVER THE
NORTHERN ZONES WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA. THE FEW STORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP TOMORROW UP OVER OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES COULD BE STRONG TO
BRIEFLY SEVERE...AND THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER UP
THAT WAY (MAINLY NORTH OF HWY 84). A LITTLE WARMER TOMORROW THAN
TODAY...WITH HIGH TEMPS RETURNING TO THE LOWER 90S MOST INTERIOR
LOCATIONS BUT STILL UPPER 80S COASTAL. LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM
LOWER 70S INLAND TO MID/UPPER 70S COASTAL. 12/DS

FRIDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS IS FORECAST TO BE POSITIONED
FROM THE GREAT LAKES...SOUTHWEST TO ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER DELTA. A QUASI-STATIONARY SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHES
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE VIRGINIAS. SOME INDICATIONS EXIST
THAT A MODEST MID LEVEL IMPULSE AT THE BASE OF THE TROF WILL BE
DROPPING SOUTHEAST...ENHANCING ASCENT ALONG THIS FRONT. POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO ORIGINATE ALONG THE
INTERSECTION OF THE FRONT AND MID LEVEL IMPULSE...WITH CONVECTION
SPREADING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH OVERNIGHT. AN OUTFLOW
ADVANCING SOUTHEAST WELL AWAY FROM THE CONVECTION TAPS DEEP MOISTURE
(PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.8 INCHES OVER THE INTERIOR) WHICH
MAY INITIATE MORE STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE INTERIOR LATE IN THE
NIGHT. THESE SUMMER- TIME NOCTURNAL STORMS CAN BE FREQUENT LIGHTNING
PRODUCERS...CAN PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS. A
FEW STORMS POSSIBLY SEVERE.

LOW LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC...CONTINUES
TO EXTEND WESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF AND SOUTHEAST US. LITTLE
CHANGE IN OVERNIGHT LOWS...LOWER 70S INTERIOR TO MID-UPPER 70S
BEACHES. /10

.LONG TERM [INDEPENDENCE DAY THROUGH THURSDAY]...MID LEVEL TROF
AMPLIFIES AS IT DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY ON THE FOURTH. MODEST LIFT SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA...COUPLED
WITH PERSISTENT DEEP MOISTURE AND ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY MAY VERY
WELL BRING SOME HEADACHES FOR FOURTH OF JULY OUTDOOR EVENTS WITH THE
PASSAGE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS. FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE A
MAJOR SAFETY HAZARD IN THE STRONGER STORM CLUSTERS ON JULY 4TH...SO
BE PREPARED TO MOVE TO A PLACE OF SHELTER IN THE CASE OF THREATENING
WEATHER.

UPPER TROF REMAINS SLIPS EASTWARD SUNDAY AND MONDAY FROM THE
APPALACHIANS TO THE SOUTHEAST...AND THEN BEGINS TO FILL/WEAKEN BY MID
WEEK AS A NARROW MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH.
DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF THE RIDGE...ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
SHOULD BE AVAILABLE TO AID IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS EACH DAY.
SEASONABLY HOT/HUMID CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. /10

&&

.AVIATION...
02/18Z TAFS...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
BUT BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS MAINLY IN AND AROUND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS EVENING AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE PRIMARILY SOUTHWEST AT 6 TO 10 KNOT
RANGE...SLIGHTLY HIGHER NEAR THE COAST IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING (AND ALSO STRONGER AND GUSTY IN AND NEAR ANY
ISOLATED STORMS). 12/DS

&&

.MARINE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. THIS
WILL PROMOTE A CONTINUED LIGHT TO MODERATE PRIMARY SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ALSO KEEP MOST OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND GENERALLY AWAY FROM THE
MARINE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...HOWEVER...SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS. 12/DS


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A MODERATE DEEP MIXED LAYER WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
RESULTS IN VERY HIGH DISPERSIONS ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE
REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LATEST GRIDDED DISPERSION INDEX RATINGS
REACH BETWEEN 110 AND 120 FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE INTERIOR OF
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND INTERIOR OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA. THESE VERY
HIGH RATINGS SUGGEST HAZARDOUS FIRE CONTROL CONDITIONS. OVER THE
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...DISPERSION RATINGS ABOVE 80 ALONG AND
NORTH OF I-10. /10


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      74  91  74  90  75 /  10  10  20  30  20
PENSACOLA   76  90  77  90  76 /  10  10  20  30  20
DESTIN      79  88  79  90  78 /  10  10  20  30  20
EVERGREEN   72  92  72  93  73 /  10  20  20  30  30
WAYNESBORO  72  92  72  90  72 /  20  10  40  50  40
CAMDEN      72  92  72  91  72 /  20  20  40  40  40
CRESTVIEW   74  92  71  93  73 /  10  20  20  30  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 022100
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
400 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT]...AFTER A ROUND OF STRONG STORMS
OVER SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF FCST AREA LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON...THINGS HAVE IMPROVED RAPIDLY. FAIRLY WIDESPREAD DENSE
MID/UPPER UPPER LEVEL CLOUD DECK BLOWING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA FROM
A MCS THAT WAS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING HAS
MODERATED DAYTIME MAX TEMPS BY SEVERAL DEGREES...SO ATMOSPHERE HAS
NOT HAD THE OPPORTUNITY TO BECOME AS UNSTABLE AS THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS FOR MOST LOCATIONS. AFTER THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SHOWERS AND
STORMS ENDED...NO ECHOES HAVE BEEN NOTED ON AREA RADARS. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH...IF ANY...PCPN OVERNIGHT. MAY SEE SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR STORMS EARLY OVER NORTHERN COUNTIES AS A WEAK OUTFLOW
FROM THE EARLIER MCS MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...BUT PRIMARILY 20
PERCENT OR LESS POPS TONIGHT. THE SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES...MAINLY OVER
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA...CONTINUES ON FRIDAY AS A MODERATELY
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS GETS A LITTLE ADDITIONAL SUPPORT OVER THE
NORTHERN ZONES WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA. THE FEW STORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP TOMORROW UP OVER OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES COULD BE STRONG TO
BRIEFLY SEVERE...AND THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER UP
THAT WAY (MAINLY NORTH OF HWY 84). A LITTLE WARMER TOMORROW THAN
TODAY...WITH HIGH TEMPS RETURNING TO THE LOWER 90S MOST INTERIOR
LOCATIONS BUT STILL UPPER 80S COASTAL. LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM
LOWER 70S INLAND TO MID/UPPER 70S COASTAL. 12/DS

FRIDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS IS FORECAST TO BE POSITIONED
FROM THE GREAT LAKES...SOUTHWEST TO ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER DELTA. A QUASI-STATIONARY SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHES
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE VIRGINIAS. SOME INDICATIONS EXIST
THAT A MODEST MID LEVEL IMPULSE AT THE BASE OF THE TROF WILL BE
DROPPING SOUTHEAST...ENHANCING ASCENT ALONG THIS FRONT. POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO ORIGINATE ALONG THE
INTERSECTION OF THE FRONT AND MID LEVEL IMPULSE...WITH CONVECTION
SPREADING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH OVERNIGHT. AN OUTFLOW
ADVANCING SOUTHEAST WELL AWAY FROM THE CONVECTION TAPS DEEP MOISTURE
(PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.8 INCHES OVER THE INTERIOR) WHICH
MAY INITIATE MORE STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE INTERIOR LATE IN THE
NIGHT. THESE SUMMER- TIME NOCTURNAL STORMS CAN BE FREQUENT LIGHTNING
PRODUCERS...CAN PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS. A
FEW STORMS POSSIBLY SEVERE.

LOW LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC...CONTINUES
TO EXTEND WESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF AND SOUTHEAST US. LITTLE
CHANGE IN OVERNIGHT LOWS...LOWER 70S INTERIOR TO MID-UPPER 70S
BEACHES. /10

.LONG TERM [INDEPENDENCE DAY THROUGH THURSDAY]...MID LEVEL TROF
AMPLIFIES AS IT DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY ON THE FOURTH. MODEST LIFT SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA...COUPLED
WITH PERSISTENT DEEP MOISTURE AND ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY MAY VERY
WELL BRING SOME HEADACHES FOR FOURTH OF JULY OUTDOOR EVENTS WITH THE
PASSAGE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS. FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE A
MAJOR SAFETY HAZARD IN THE STRONGER STORM CLUSTERS ON JULY 4TH...SO
BE PREPARED TO MOVE TO A PLACE OF SHELTER IN THE CASE OF THREATENING
WEATHER.

UPPER TROF REMAINS SLIPS EASTWARD SUNDAY AND MONDAY FROM THE
APPALACHIANS TO THE SOUTHEAST...AND THEN BEGINS TO FILL/WEAKEN BY MID
WEEK AS A NARROW MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH.
DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF THE RIDGE...ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
SHOULD BE AVAILABLE TO AID IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS EACH DAY.
SEASONABLY HOT/HUMID CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. /10

&&

.AVIATION...
02/18Z TAFS...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
BUT BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS MAINLY IN AND AROUND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS EVENING AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE PRIMARILY SOUTHWEST AT 6 TO 10 KNOT
RANGE...SLIGHTLY HIGHER NEAR THE COAST IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING (AND ALSO STRONGER AND GUSTY IN AND NEAR ANY
ISOLATED STORMS). 12/DS

&&

.MARINE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. THIS
WILL PROMOTE A CONTINUED LIGHT TO MODERATE PRIMARY SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ALSO KEEP MOST OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND GENERALLY AWAY FROM THE
MARINE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...HOWEVER...SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS. 12/DS


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A MODERATE DEEP MIXED LAYER WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
RESULTS IN VERY HIGH DISPERSIONS ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE
REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LATEST GRIDDED DISPERSION INDEX RATINGS
REACH BETWEEN 110 AND 120 FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE INTERIOR OF
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND INTERIOR OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA. THESE VERY
HIGH RATINGS SUGGEST HAZARDOUS FIRE CONTROL CONDITIONS. OVER THE
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...DISPERSION RATINGS ABOVE 80 ALONG AND
NORTH OF I-10. /10


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      74  91  74  90  75 /  10  10  20  30  20
PENSACOLA   76  90  77  90  76 /  10  10  20  30  20
DESTIN      79  88  79  90  78 /  10  10  20  30  20
EVERGREEN   72  92  72  93  73 /  10  20  20  30  30
WAYNESBORO  72  92  72  90  72 /  20  10  40  50  40
CAMDEN      72  92  72  91  72 /  20  20  40  40  40
CRESTVIEW   74  92  71  93  73 /  10  20  20  30  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMOB 021625
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1125 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...MADE A FEW QUICK ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY. EXPANSIVE MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD SHIELD OVER
REGION (BLOWOFF FROM THE EARLIER MCS TO OUR NORTH)...IS KEEPING TEMPS
DOWN SOMEWHAT. AS A RESULT...TWEAKED AFTERNOON HIGHS DOWN 3-5 DEGREES
FOR MOST LOCATIONS. ALSO ADJUSTED POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE
CLOUD COVER...LESS INSTABILITY AND OVERALL FEWER STORMS. EXCEPTION
BEING INTERIOR SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA (EAST OF I-65) AND PARTS OF THE
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. BETTER LOLVL MOISTURE POOL IN THAT AREA
AND SLIGHTLY BETTER HEATING TODAY HAS ALLOWED FOR THE RAPID
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THAT AREA. STORMS ARE QUICKLY
BECOMING STRONG AS THEY DEVELOP AND MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA. BRIEF GUSTY WINDS UP TO AROUND 45 MPH...BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING POSSIBLE LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON WITH
THESE STORMS. A BRIEF SEVERE STORM IS POSSIBLE...BUT OVERALL SEVERE
THREAT IS RATHER LOW. REMAINDER OF THE FCST FOR TODAY LOOKS GOOD WITH
NO CHANGES NEEDED. 12/DS

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 607 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

SHORT TERM...DID A QUICK UPDATE TO THE CURRENT ZONE FORECAST MAINLY
TO INCREASE POPS FOR MOST AREAS. LATEST SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW MCS
WELL TO THE NORTH SPLITTING OVER MO AND WESTERN TN WITH ONE SECTOR
MOVING SOUTH INTO LOWER AR AND NORTHER MS...TRACKING SOUTH TOWARDS
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. GUSTY STRAIGHT LINE WINDS WITH POSSIBLE
STRONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MOVING WELL AHEAD OF THE CONVECTION WILL
BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON. 32/EE

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS MODERATE TO HIGH.

MARINE...DID A QUICK UPDATE TO THE CURRENT MARINE FORECAST MAINLY TO
INCREASE POPS FOR MOST AREAS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED TO THE WEST AND MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON...TAPERING OFF IN THE AFTERNOON AS CONVECTION INLAND
GETS BETTER ORGANIZED. 32/EE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 502 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...BROAD MID TO UPPER TROF OVER THE
MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS STRETCHING WEST OVER THE UPPER MS RIVER
VALLEY AND NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT VERY SLOWLY
THROUGH TONIGHT RESULTING IN GOOD LIFT FOR TODAYS CONVECTION
OCCURRING OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA THIS
MORNING SHIFTING EAST AFFECTING MOST INLAND AREAS EAST OF THE I-65
CORRIDOR...STRETCHING SOUTH TO TO NEAR THE AL/FL BORDER. MAIN
CONCERN WITH THIS PATTERN IS THE PRESENCE OF ANOTHER POTENT MCS OVER
PARTS MO AND AR PROGGED TO SPLIT TO THE EAST AND SOUTHWEST LATER
THIS MORNING WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
AFFECTING THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. SURFACE OBS IN THE WAKE OF THIS BOUNDARY SHOW LITTLE
CHANGE WITH THE DIRECTION AND SPEED POSSIBLY LEADING TO LITTLE TO NO
EFFECT FOR AREAS DOWNSTREAM. WITH THIS UNCERTAINTY HAVE OPTED TO ADD
A LITTLE MORE VALUE TO THE CURRENT RAIN CHANCES FOR TODAY WITH THE
BETTER COVERAGE OCCURRING OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
CWFA EARLY TODAY SHIFTING EAST THROUGH TONIGHT. LATEST MODEL
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A RATHER MOIST COLUMN IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WITH PWATS RANGING FROM 1.6 TO 1.8 INCHES WITH MARGINAL LAPSE
RATES. MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO DEPICTS HIGHER THEN NORMAL
BULK SHEAR VALUES MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH LATER TODAY WHICH COULD
BE SIGNAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS GENERALLY FROM THE
WEST AND NORTHWEST WITH THE BETTER CONVECTION LATER TODAY. AS FOR
THE COVERAGE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY HAVE OPTED TO LEAN
MOSTLY TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE HIGHER RES MODEL GUIDANCE...HRRR/SPC
WRF WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE PATTERN MENTIONED ABOVE. STRONG GUSTY
WINDS AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN
THREATS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. ATTM...THIS UNDERCUTS BOTH 00Z MAV
AND MET MOS SO SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POP FORECAST MAY BE NEEDED
LATER THIS MORNING. AS FOR TEMPS WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE COOLER MET
GUIDANCE AND ADJUST FOR CONSISTENCY WITH OTHER WFOS. HIGHS TODAY
WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S INLAND AND THE UPPER
80S ALONG THE COAST. TONIGHTS LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S FOR MOST
INLAND AREAS AND THE MID 70S CLOSER TO THE COAST. 32/EE

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS MODERATE.

[FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT]...A GENERAL ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL
BE PREVALENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION FRIDAY ON THE BASE
OF A PERSISTENT MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION...WHILE MID LEVEL RIDGING
STRETCHES WESTWARD FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT
IN PLACING THE BETTER MOISTURE AND LIFT WELL TO THE NORTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA WITHIN ENHANCED MID LEVEL FLOW ALONG AND AHEAD OF A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WHILE SLIGHTLY DRIER AND MORE
SUBSIDENT AIR EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF CLOSER TO THE VICINITY OF THE BUILDING MID LEVEL RIDGE.
ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT TO AT LEAST MENTION A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL AL ALONG THE SEABREEZE AND/OR
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AXIS. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES SHOULD OTHERWISE
TREND UPWARD A LITTLE ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGHS LOOKING TO RANGE
FROM AROUND 90 NEAR THE COAST TO THE LOWER TO MID 90S INLAND. THE
COMBINED EFFECT OF AFTERNOON HUMIDITY WILL RESULT IN MAX HEAT INDICES
IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES. MID LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW WILL
DIG A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH INTO CENTRAL MS/AL FRIDAY NIGHT...AND AN
ASSOCIATED COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD MAINLY IMPACT CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF BOTH STATES...BUT WILL CONTINUE A LOW CHANCE
OF SHOWERS/STORMS OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT OVER THE INTERIOR GIVEN
POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND INCREASED
MOISTURE AND LIFT ALONG THE INCREASED MID LEVEL FLOW. LOWS FRIDAY
NIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S INLAND TO THE MID 70S TO AROUND
80 NEAR THE COAST. /21

LONG TERM [INDEPENDENCE DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...A PERSISTENT MID
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL EXTEND FROM THE VICINITY OF THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS/OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH MOIST WESTERLY MID
LEVEL FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND ON THE
BASE OF THE CONTINUED TROUGH THE TENNESSEE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION THIS WEEKEND...AND OUR FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN
UNDERNEATH MOIST WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE
THROUGH SUNDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE
BETWEEN 1.6 AND 1.9 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...AND WITH PERIODIC EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION...WE EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP BOTH INDEPENDENCE DAY AND SUNDAY. A FEW STORMS COULD BE
STRONG AT TIMES GIVEN MLCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1000-2000 J/KG WITH
STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SHOULD ADVANCE EASTWARD TOWARD
THE EAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MID LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD
ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF THE RIDGE...ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SHOULD BE AVAILABLE TO AID IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STORMS EACH DAY. SEASONABLY HOT/HUMID CONDITIONS SHOULD
PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. /21

AVIATION...
02.12Z TAF ISSUANCE...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
03.12Z. COULD SEE SHORT PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS MOSTLY IN AND AROUND
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING MOSTLY IN THE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST DIRECTION THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY SOUTHWEST
AT 6 TO 10 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS MOSTLY IN THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON...SHIFTING WEST AT 4 TO 6 KNOTS LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. 32/EE

MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN GULF WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK LEADING MOSTLY TO A LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. ONE CONCERN FOR TODAY WILL THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST AND NORTH LATER THIS MORNING
AND THIS AFTERNOON GENERATING GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS CLIMBING
TO THE 30 TO 40 KT RANGE OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER. MARINERS SHOULD MONITOR
THIS SITUATION CLOSELY TODAY AND LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR
LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS IF THREATENING WEATHER IS APPROACHING YOU AREA.
GENERALLY LITTLE CHANGE IN SEAS IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
THOUGH SEAS WILL BE HIGHER IN AND AROUND THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PD. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      86  72  92  74  90 /  50  10  10  10  30
PENSACOLA   86  75  92  77  90 /  50  05  10  10  30
DESTIN      86  79  90  79  90 /  50  10  10  10  30
EVERGREEN   87  71  92  72  92 /  60  20  20  20  40
WAYNESBORO  88  71  93  72  89 /  50  20  10  30  40
CAMDEN      88  72  92  72  91 /  60  20  20  30  40
CRESTVIEW   87  73  94  71  93 /  50  10  10  10  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 021625
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1125 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...MADE A FEW QUICK ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY. EXPANSIVE MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD SHIELD OVER
REGION (BLOWOFF FROM THE EARLIER MCS TO OUR NORTH)...IS KEEPING TEMPS
DOWN SOMEWHAT. AS A RESULT...TWEAKED AFTERNOON HIGHS DOWN 3-5 DEGREES
FOR MOST LOCATIONS. ALSO ADJUSTED POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE
CLOUD COVER...LESS INSTABILITY AND OVERALL FEWER STORMS. EXCEPTION
BEING INTERIOR SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA (EAST OF I-65) AND PARTS OF THE
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. BETTER LOLVL MOISTURE POOL IN THAT AREA
AND SLIGHTLY BETTER HEATING TODAY HAS ALLOWED FOR THE RAPID
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THAT AREA. STORMS ARE QUICKLY
BECOMING STRONG AS THEY DEVELOP AND MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA. BRIEF GUSTY WINDS UP TO AROUND 45 MPH...BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING POSSIBLE LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON WITH
THESE STORMS. A BRIEF SEVERE STORM IS POSSIBLE...BUT OVERALL SEVERE
THREAT IS RATHER LOW. REMAINDER OF THE FCST FOR TODAY LOOKS GOOD WITH
NO CHANGES NEEDED. 12/DS

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 607 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

SHORT TERM...DID A QUICK UPDATE TO THE CURRENT ZONE FORECAST MAINLY
TO INCREASE POPS FOR MOST AREAS. LATEST SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW MCS
WELL TO THE NORTH SPLITTING OVER MO AND WESTERN TN WITH ONE SECTOR
MOVING SOUTH INTO LOWER AR AND NORTHER MS...TRACKING SOUTH TOWARDS
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. GUSTY STRAIGHT LINE WINDS WITH POSSIBLE
STRONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MOVING WELL AHEAD OF THE CONVECTION WILL
BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON. 32/EE

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS MODERATE TO HIGH.

MARINE...DID A QUICK UPDATE TO THE CURRENT MARINE FORECAST MAINLY TO
INCREASE POPS FOR MOST AREAS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED TO THE WEST AND MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON...TAPERING OFF IN THE AFTERNOON AS CONVECTION INLAND
GETS BETTER ORGANIZED. 32/EE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 502 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...BROAD MID TO UPPER TROF OVER THE
MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS STRETCHING WEST OVER THE UPPER MS RIVER
VALLEY AND NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT VERY SLOWLY
THROUGH TONIGHT RESULTING IN GOOD LIFT FOR TODAYS CONVECTION
OCCURRING OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA THIS
MORNING SHIFTING EAST AFFECTING MOST INLAND AREAS EAST OF THE I-65
CORRIDOR...STRETCHING SOUTH TO TO NEAR THE AL/FL BORDER. MAIN
CONCERN WITH THIS PATTERN IS THE PRESENCE OF ANOTHER POTENT MCS OVER
PARTS MO AND AR PROGGED TO SPLIT TO THE EAST AND SOUTHWEST LATER
THIS MORNING WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
AFFECTING THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. SURFACE OBS IN THE WAKE OF THIS BOUNDARY SHOW LITTLE
CHANGE WITH THE DIRECTION AND SPEED POSSIBLY LEADING TO LITTLE TO NO
EFFECT FOR AREAS DOWNSTREAM. WITH THIS UNCERTAINTY HAVE OPTED TO ADD
A LITTLE MORE VALUE TO THE CURRENT RAIN CHANCES FOR TODAY WITH THE
BETTER COVERAGE OCCURRING OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
CWFA EARLY TODAY SHIFTING EAST THROUGH TONIGHT. LATEST MODEL
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A RATHER MOIST COLUMN IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WITH PWATS RANGING FROM 1.6 TO 1.8 INCHES WITH MARGINAL LAPSE
RATES. MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO DEPICTS HIGHER THEN NORMAL
BULK SHEAR VALUES MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH LATER TODAY WHICH COULD
BE SIGNAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS GENERALLY FROM THE
WEST AND NORTHWEST WITH THE BETTER CONVECTION LATER TODAY. AS FOR
THE COVERAGE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY HAVE OPTED TO LEAN
MOSTLY TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE HIGHER RES MODEL GUIDANCE...HRRR/SPC
WRF WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE PATTERN MENTIONED ABOVE. STRONG GUSTY
WINDS AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN
THREATS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. ATTM...THIS UNDERCUTS BOTH 00Z MAV
AND MET MOS SO SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POP FORECAST MAY BE NEEDED
LATER THIS MORNING. AS FOR TEMPS WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE COOLER MET
GUIDANCE AND ADJUST FOR CONSISTENCY WITH OTHER WFOS. HIGHS TODAY
WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S INLAND AND THE UPPER
80S ALONG THE COAST. TONIGHTS LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S FOR MOST
INLAND AREAS AND THE MID 70S CLOSER TO THE COAST. 32/EE

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS MODERATE.

[FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT]...A GENERAL ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL
BE PREVALENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION FRIDAY ON THE BASE
OF A PERSISTENT MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION...WHILE MID LEVEL RIDGING
STRETCHES WESTWARD FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT
IN PLACING THE BETTER MOISTURE AND LIFT WELL TO THE NORTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA WITHIN ENHANCED MID LEVEL FLOW ALONG AND AHEAD OF A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WHILE SLIGHTLY DRIER AND MORE
SUBSIDENT AIR EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF CLOSER TO THE VICINITY OF THE BUILDING MID LEVEL RIDGE.
ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT TO AT LEAST MENTION A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL AL ALONG THE SEABREEZE AND/OR
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AXIS. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES SHOULD OTHERWISE
TREND UPWARD A LITTLE ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGHS LOOKING TO RANGE
FROM AROUND 90 NEAR THE COAST TO THE LOWER TO MID 90S INLAND. THE
COMBINED EFFECT OF AFTERNOON HUMIDITY WILL RESULT IN MAX HEAT INDICES
IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES. MID LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW WILL
DIG A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH INTO CENTRAL MS/AL FRIDAY NIGHT...AND AN
ASSOCIATED COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD MAINLY IMPACT CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF BOTH STATES...BUT WILL CONTINUE A LOW CHANCE
OF SHOWERS/STORMS OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT OVER THE INTERIOR GIVEN
POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND INCREASED
MOISTURE AND LIFT ALONG THE INCREASED MID LEVEL FLOW. LOWS FRIDAY
NIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S INLAND TO THE MID 70S TO AROUND
80 NEAR THE COAST. /21

LONG TERM [INDEPENDENCE DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...A PERSISTENT MID
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL EXTEND FROM THE VICINITY OF THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS/OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH MOIST WESTERLY MID
LEVEL FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND ON THE
BASE OF THE CONTINUED TROUGH THE TENNESSEE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION THIS WEEKEND...AND OUR FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN
UNDERNEATH MOIST WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE
THROUGH SUNDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE
BETWEEN 1.6 AND 1.9 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...AND WITH PERIODIC EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION...WE EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP BOTH INDEPENDENCE DAY AND SUNDAY. A FEW STORMS COULD BE
STRONG AT TIMES GIVEN MLCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1000-2000 J/KG WITH
STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SHOULD ADVANCE EASTWARD TOWARD
THE EAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MID LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD
ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF THE RIDGE...ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SHOULD BE AVAILABLE TO AID IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STORMS EACH DAY. SEASONABLY HOT/HUMID CONDITIONS SHOULD
PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. /21

AVIATION...
02.12Z TAF ISSUANCE...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
03.12Z. COULD SEE SHORT PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS MOSTLY IN AND AROUND
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING MOSTLY IN THE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST DIRECTION THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY SOUTHWEST
AT 6 TO 10 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS MOSTLY IN THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON...SHIFTING WEST AT 4 TO 6 KNOTS LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. 32/EE

MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN GULF WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK LEADING MOSTLY TO A LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. ONE CONCERN FOR TODAY WILL THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST AND NORTH LATER THIS MORNING
AND THIS AFTERNOON GENERATING GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS CLIMBING
TO THE 30 TO 40 KT RANGE OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER. MARINERS SHOULD MONITOR
THIS SITUATION CLOSELY TODAY AND LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR
LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS IF THREATENING WEATHER IS APPROACHING YOU AREA.
GENERALLY LITTLE CHANGE IN SEAS IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
THOUGH SEAS WILL BE HIGHER IN AND AROUND THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PD. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      86  72  92  74  90 /  50  10  10  10  30
PENSACOLA   86  75  92  77  90 /  50  05  10  10  30
DESTIN      86  79  90  79  90 /  50  10  10  10  30
EVERGREEN   87  71  92  72  92 /  60  20  20  20  40
WAYNESBORO  88  71  93  72  89 /  50  20  10  30  40
CAMDEN      88  72  92  72  91 /  60  20  20  30  40
CRESTVIEW   87  73  94  71  93 /  50  10  10  10  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMOB 021625
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1125 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...MADE A FEW QUICK ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY. EXPANSIVE MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD SHIELD OVER
REGION (BLOWOFF FROM THE EARLIER MCS TO OUR NORTH)...IS KEEPING TEMPS
DOWN SOMEWHAT. AS A RESULT...TWEAKED AFTERNOON HIGHS DOWN 3-5 DEGREES
FOR MOST LOCATIONS. ALSO ADJUSTED POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE
CLOUD COVER...LESS INSTABILITY AND OVERALL FEWER STORMS. EXCEPTION
BEING INTERIOR SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA (EAST OF I-65) AND PARTS OF THE
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. BETTER LOLVL MOISTURE POOL IN THAT AREA
AND SLIGHTLY BETTER HEATING TODAY HAS ALLOWED FOR THE RAPID
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THAT AREA. STORMS ARE QUICKLY
BECOMING STRONG AS THEY DEVELOP AND MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA. BRIEF GUSTY WINDS UP TO AROUND 45 MPH...BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING POSSIBLE LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON WITH
THESE STORMS. A BRIEF SEVERE STORM IS POSSIBLE...BUT OVERALL SEVERE
THREAT IS RATHER LOW. REMAINDER OF THE FCST FOR TODAY LOOKS GOOD WITH
NO CHANGES NEEDED. 12/DS

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 607 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

SHORT TERM...DID A QUICK UPDATE TO THE CURRENT ZONE FORECAST MAINLY
TO INCREASE POPS FOR MOST AREAS. LATEST SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW MCS
WELL TO THE NORTH SPLITTING OVER MO AND WESTERN TN WITH ONE SECTOR
MOVING SOUTH INTO LOWER AR AND NORTHER MS...TRACKING SOUTH TOWARDS
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. GUSTY STRAIGHT LINE WINDS WITH POSSIBLE
STRONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MOVING WELL AHEAD OF THE CONVECTION WILL
BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON. 32/EE

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS MODERATE TO HIGH.

MARINE...DID A QUICK UPDATE TO THE CURRENT MARINE FORECAST MAINLY TO
INCREASE POPS FOR MOST AREAS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED TO THE WEST AND MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON...TAPERING OFF IN THE AFTERNOON AS CONVECTION INLAND
GETS BETTER ORGANIZED. 32/EE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 502 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...BROAD MID TO UPPER TROF OVER THE
MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS STRETCHING WEST OVER THE UPPER MS RIVER
VALLEY AND NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT VERY SLOWLY
THROUGH TONIGHT RESULTING IN GOOD LIFT FOR TODAYS CONVECTION
OCCURRING OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA THIS
MORNING SHIFTING EAST AFFECTING MOST INLAND AREAS EAST OF THE I-65
CORRIDOR...STRETCHING SOUTH TO TO NEAR THE AL/FL BORDER. MAIN
CONCERN WITH THIS PATTERN IS THE PRESENCE OF ANOTHER POTENT MCS OVER
PARTS MO AND AR PROGGED TO SPLIT TO THE EAST AND SOUTHWEST LATER
THIS MORNING WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
AFFECTING THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. SURFACE OBS IN THE WAKE OF THIS BOUNDARY SHOW LITTLE
CHANGE WITH THE DIRECTION AND SPEED POSSIBLY LEADING TO LITTLE TO NO
EFFECT FOR AREAS DOWNSTREAM. WITH THIS UNCERTAINTY HAVE OPTED TO ADD
A LITTLE MORE VALUE TO THE CURRENT RAIN CHANCES FOR TODAY WITH THE
BETTER COVERAGE OCCURRING OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
CWFA EARLY TODAY SHIFTING EAST THROUGH TONIGHT. LATEST MODEL
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A RATHER MOIST COLUMN IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WITH PWATS RANGING FROM 1.6 TO 1.8 INCHES WITH MARGINAL LAPSE
RATES. MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO DEPICTS HIGHER THEN NORMAL
BULK SHEAR VALUES MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH LATER TODAY WHICH COULD
BE SIGNAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS GENERALLY FROM THE
WEST AND NORTHWEST WITH THE BETTER CONVECTION LATER TODAY. AS FOR
THE COVERAGE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY HAVE OPTED TO LEAN
MOSTLY TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE HIGHER RES MODEL GUIDANCE...HRRR/SPC
WRF WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE PATTERN MENTIONED ABOVE. STRONG GUSTY
WINDS AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN
THREATS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. ATTM...THIS UNDERCUTS BOTH 00Z MAV
AND MET MOS SO SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POP FORECAST MAY BE NEEDED
LATER THIS MORNING. AS FOR TEMPS WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE COOLER MET
GUIDANCE AND ADJUST FOR CONSISTENCY WITH OTHER WFOS. HIGHS TODAY
WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S INLAND AND THE UPPER
80S ALONG THE COAST. TONIGHTS LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S FOR MOST
INLAND AREAS AND THE MID 70S CLOSER TO THE COAST. 32/EE

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS MODERATE.

[FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT]...A GENERAL ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL
BE PREVALENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION FRIDAY ON THE BASE
OF A PERSISTENT MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION...WHILE MID LEVEL RIDGING
STRETCHES WESTWARD FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT
IN PLACING THE BETTER MOISTURE AND LIFT WELL TO THE NORTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA WITHIN ENHANCED MID LEVEL FLOW ALONG AND AHEAD OF A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WHILE SLIGHTLY DRIER AND MORE
SUBSIDENT AIR EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF CLOSER TO THE VICINITY OF THE BUILDING MID LEVEL RIDGE.
ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT TO AT LEAST MENTION A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL AL ALONG THE SEABREEZE AND/OR
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AXIS. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES SHOULD OTHERWISE
TREND UPWARD A LITTLE ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGHS LOOKING TO RANGE
FROM AROUND 90 NEAR THE COAST TO THE LOWER TO MID 90S INLAND. THE
COMBINED EFFECT OF AFTERNOON HUMIDITY WILL RESULT IN MAX HEAT INDICES
IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES. MID LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW WILL
DIG A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH INTO CENTRAL MS/AL FRIDAY NIGHT...AND AN
ASSOCIATED COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD MAINLY IMPACT CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF BOTH STATES...BUT WILL CONTINUE A LOW CHANCE
OF SHOWERS/STORMS OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT OVER THE INTERIOR GIVEN
POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND INCREASED
MOISTURE AND LIFT ALONG THE INCREASED MID LEVEL FLOW. LOWS FRIDAY
NIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S INLAND TO THE MID 70S TO AROUND
80 NEAR THE COAST. /21

LONG TERM [INDEPENDENCE DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...A PERSISTENT MID
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL EXTEND FROM THE VICINITY OF THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS/OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH MOIST WESTERLY MID
LEVEL FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND ON THE
BASE OF THE CONTINUED TROUGH THE TENNESSEE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION THIS WEEKEND...AND OUR FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN
UNDERNEATH MOIST WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE
THROUGH SUNDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE
BETWEEN 1.6 AND 1.9 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...AND WITH PERIODIC EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION...WE EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP BOTH INDEPENDENCE DAY AND SUNDAY. A FEW STORMS COULD BE
STRONG AT TIMES GIVEN MLCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1000-2000 J/KG WITH
STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SHOULD ADVANCE EASTWARD TOWARD
THE EAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MID LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD
ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF THE RIDGE...ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SHOULD BE AVAILABLE TO AID IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STORMS EACH DAY. SEASONABLY HOT/HUMID CONDITIONS SHOULD
PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. /21

AVIATION...
02.12Z TAF ISSUANCE...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
03.12Z. COULD SEE SHORT PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS MOSTLY IN AND AROUND
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING MOSTLY IN THE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST DIRECTION THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY SOUTHWEST
AT 6 TO 10 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS MOSTLY IN THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON...SHIFTING WEST AT 4 TO 6 KNOTS LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. 32/EE

MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN GULF WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK LEADING MOSTLY TO A LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. ONE CONCERN FOR TODAY WILL THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST AND NORTH LATER THIS MORNING
AND THIS AFTERNOON GENERATING GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS CLIMBING
TO THE 30 TO 40 KT RANGE OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER. MARINERS SHOULD MONITOR
THIS SITUATION CLOSELY TODAY AND LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR
LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS IF THREATENING WEATHER IS APPROACHING YOU AREA.
GENERALLY LITTLE CHANGE IN SEAS IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
THOUGH SEAS WILL BE HIGHER IN AND AROUND THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PD. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      86  72  92  74  90 /  50  10  10  10  30
PENSACOLA   86  75  92  77  90 /  50  05  10  10  30
DESTIN      86  79  90  79  90 /  50  10  10  10  30
EVERGREEN   87  71  92  72  92 /  60  20  20  20  40
WAYNESBORO  88  71  93  72  89 /  50  20  10  30  40
CAMDEN      88  72  92  72  91 /  60  20  20  30  40
CRESTVIEW   87  73  94  71  93 /  50  10  10  10  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMOB 021625
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1125 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...MADE A FEW QUICK ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY. EXPANSIVE MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD SHIELD OVER
REGION (BLOWOFF FROM THE EARLIER MCS TO OUR NORTH)...IS KEEPING TEMPS
DOWN SOMEWHAT. AS A RESULT...TWEAKED AFTERNOON HIGHS DOWN 3-5 DEGREES
FOR MOST LOCATIONS. ALSO ADJUSTED POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE
CLOUD COVER...LESS INSTABILITY AND OVERALL FEWER STORMS. EXCEPTION
BEING INTERIOR SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA (EAST OF I-65) AND PARTS OF THE
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. BETTER LOLVL MOISTURE POOL IN THAT AREA
AND SLIGHTLY BETTER HEATING TODAY HAS ALLOWED FOR THE RAPID
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THAT AREA. STORMS ARE QUICKLY
BECOMING STRONG AS THEY DEVELOP AND MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA. BRIEF GUSTY WINDS UP TO AROUND 45 MPH...BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING POSSIBLE LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON WITH
THESE STORMS. A BRIEF SEVERE STORM IS POSSIBLE...BUT OVERALL SEVERE
THREAT IS RATHER LOW. REMAINDER OF THE FCST FOR TODAY LOOKS GOOD WITH
NO CHANGES NEEDED. 12/DS

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 607 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

SHORT TERM...DID A QUICK UPDATE TO THE CURRENT ZONE FORECAST MAINLY
TO INCREASE POPS FOR MOST AREAS. LATEST SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW MCS
WELL TO THE NORTH SPLITTING OVER MO AND WESTERN TN WITH ONE SECTOR
MOVING SOUTH INTO LOWER AR AND NORTHER MS...TRACKING SOUTH TOWARDS
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. GUSTY STRAIGHT LINE WINDS WITH POSSIBLE
STRONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MOVING WELL AHEAD OF THE CONVECTION WILL
BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON. 32/EE

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS MODERATE TO HIGH.

MARINE...DID A QUICK UPDATE TO THE CURRENT MARINE FORECAST MAINLY TO
INCREASE POPS FOR MOST AREAS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED TO THE WEST AND MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON...TAPERING OFF IN THE AFTERNOON AS CONVECTION INLAND
GETS BETTER ORGANIZED. 32/EE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 502 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...BROAD MID TO UPPER TROF OVER THE
MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS STRETCHING WEST OVER THE UPPER MS RIVER
VALLEY AND NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT VERY SLOWLY
THROUGH TONIGHT RESULTING IN GOOD LIFT FOR TODAYS CONVECTION
OCCURRING OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA THIS
MORNING SHIFTING EAST AFFECTING MOST INLAND AREAS EAST OF THE I-65
CORRIDOR...STRETCHING SOUTH TO TO NEAR THE AL/FL BORDER. MAIN
CONCERN WITH THIS PATTERN IS THE PRESENCE OF ANOTHER POTENT MCS OVER
PARTS MO AND AR PROGGED TO SPLIT TO THE EAST AND SOUTHWEST LATER
THIS MORNING WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
AFFECTING THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. SURFACE OBS IN THE WAKE OF THIS BOUNDARY SHOW LITTLE
CHANGE WITH THE DIRECTION AND SPEED POSSIBLY LEADING TO LITTLE TO NO
EFFECT FOR AREAS DOWNSTREAM. WITH THIS UNCERTAINTY HAVE OPTED TO ADD
A LITTLE MORE VALUE TO THE CURRENT RAIN CHANCES FOR TODAY WITH THE
BETTER COVERAGE OCCURRING OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
CWFA EARLY TODAY SHIFTING EAST THROUGH TONIGHT. LATEST MODEL
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A RATHER MOIST COLUMN IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WITH PWATS RANGING FROM 1.6 TO 1.8 INCHES WITH MARGINAL LAPSE
RATES. MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO DEPICTS HIGHER THEN NORMAL
BULK SHEAR VALUES MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH LATER TODAY WHICH COULD
BE SIGNAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS GENERALLY FROM THE
WEST AND NORTHWEST WITH THE BETTER CONVECTION LATER TODAY. AS FOR
THE COVERAGE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY HAVE OPTED TO LEAN
MOSTLY TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE HIGHER RES MODEL GUIDANCE...HRRR/SPC
WRF WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE PATTERN MENTIONED ABOVE. STRONG GUSTY
WINDS AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN
THREATS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. ATTM...THIS UNDERCUTS BOTH 00Z MAV
AND MET MOS SO SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POP FORECAST MAY BE NEEDED
LATER THIS MORNING. AS FOR TEMPS WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE COOLER MET
GUIDANCE AND ADJUST FOR CONSISTENCY WITH OTHER WFOS. HIGHS TODAY
WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S INLAND AND THE UPPER
80S ALONG THE COAST. TONIGHTS LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S FOR MOST
INLAND AREAS AND THE MID 70S CLOSER TO THE COAST. 32/EE

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS MODERATE.

[FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT]...A GENERAL ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL
BE PREVALENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION FRIDAY ON THE BASE
OF A PERSISTENT MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION...WHILE MID LEVEL RIDGING
STRETCHES WESTWARD FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT
IN PLACING THE BETTER MOISTURE AND LIFT WELL TO THE NORTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA WITHIN ENHANCED MID LEVEL FLOW ALONG AND AHEAD OF A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WHILE SLIGHTLY DRIER AND MORE
SUBSIDENT AIR EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF CLOSER TO THE VICINITY OF THE BUILDING MID LEVEL RIDGE.
ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT TO AT LEAST MENTION A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL AL ALONG THE SEABREEZE AND/OR
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AXIS. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES SHOULD OTHERWISE
TREND UPWARD A LITTLE ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGHS LOOKING TO RANGE
FROM AROUND 90 NEAR THE COAST TO THE LOWER TO MID 90S INLAND. THE
COMBINED EFFECT OF AFTERNOON HUMIDITY WILL RESULT IN MAX HEAT INDICES
IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES. MID LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW WILL
DIG A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH INTO CENTRAL MS/AL FRIDAY NIGHT...AND AN
ASSOCIATED COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD MAINLY IMPACT CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF BOTH STATES...BUT WILL CONTINUE A LOW CHANCE
OF SHOWERS/STORMS OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT OVER THE INTERIOR GIVEN
POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND INCREASED
MOISTURE AND LIFT ALONG THE INCREASED MID LEVEL FLOW. LOWS FRIDAY
NIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S INLAND TO THE MID 70S TO AROUND
80 NEAR THE COAST. /21

LONG TERM [INDEPENDENCE DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...A PERSISTENT MID
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL EXTEND FROM THE VICINITY OF THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS/OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH MOIST WESTERLY MID
LEVEL FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND ON THE
BASE OF THE CONTINUED TROUGH THE TENNESSEE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION THIS WEEKEND...AND OUR FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN
UNDERNEATH MOIST WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE
THROUGH SUNDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE
BETWEEN 1.6 AND 1.9 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...AND WITH PERIODIC EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION...WE EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP BOTH INDEPENDENCE DAY AND SUNDAY. A FEW STORMS COULD BE
STRONG AT TIMES GIVEN MLCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1000-2000 J/KG WITH
STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SHOULD ADVANCE EASTWARD TOWARD
THE EAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MID LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD
ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF THE RIDGE...ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SHOULD BE AVAILABLE TO AID IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STORMS EACH DAY. SEASONABLY HOT/HUMID CONDITIONS SHOULD
PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. /21

AVIATION...
02.12Z TAF ISSUANCE...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
03.12Z. COULD SEE SHORT PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS MOSTLY IN AND AROUND
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING MOSTLY IN THE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST DIRECTION THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY SOUTHWEST
AT 6 TO 10 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS MOSTLY IN THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON...SHIFTING WEST AT 4 TO 6 KNOTS LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. 32/EE

MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN GULF WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK LEADING MOSTLY TO A LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. ONE CONCERN FOR TODAY WILL THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST AND NORTH LATER THIS MORNING
AND THIS AFTERNOON GENERATING GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS CLIMBING
TO THE 30 TO 40 KT RANGE OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER. MARINERS SHOULD MONITOR
THIS SITUATION CLOSELY TODAY AND LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR
LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS IF THREATENING WEATHER IS APPROACHING YOU AREA.
GENERALLY LITTLE CHANGE IN SEAS IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
THOUGH SEAS WILL BE HIGHER IN AND AROUND THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PD. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      86  72  92  74  90 /  50  10  10  10  30
PENSACOLA   86  75  92  77  90 /  50  05  10  10  30
DESTIN      86  79  90  79  90 /  50  10  10  10  30
EVERGREEN   87  71  92  72  92 /  60  20  20  20  40
WAYNESBORO  88  71  93  72  89 /  50  20  10  30  40
CAMDEN      88  72  92  72  91 /  60  20  20  30  40
CRESTVIEW   87  73  94  71  93 /  50  10  10  10  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 021107 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
607 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...DID A QUICK UPDATE TO THE CURRENT ZONE FORECAST MAINLY
TO INCREASE POPS FOR MOST AREAS. LATEST SATELITTE LOOPS SHOW MCS
WELL TO THE NORTH SPLITTING OVER MO AND WESTERN TN WITH ONE SECTOR
MOVING SOUTH INTO LOWER AR AND NORTHER MS...TRACKING SOUTH TOWARDS
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. GUSTY STRAIGHT LINE WINDS WITH POSSIBLE
STRONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MOVING WELL AHEAD OF THE CONVECTION WILL
BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON. 32/EE

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS MODERATE TO HIGH.

.MARINE...DID A QUICK UPDATE TO THE CURRENT MARINE FORECAST MAINLY TO
INCREASE POPS FOR MOST AREAS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED TO THE WEST AND MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON...TAPERING OFF IN THE AFTERNOON AS CONVECTION INLAND
GETS BETTER ORGANIZED. 32/EE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 502 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...BROAD MID TO UPPER TROF OVER THE
MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS STRETCHING WEST OVER THE UPPER MS RIVER
VALLEY AND NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT VERY SLOWLY
THROUGH TONIGHT RESULTING IN GOOD LIFT FOR TODAYS CONVECTION
OCCURRING OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA THIS
MORNING SHIFTING EAST AFFECTING MOST INLAND AREAS EAST OF THE I-65
CORRIDOR...STRETCHING SOUTH TO TO NEAR THE AL/FL BORDER. MAIN
CONCERN WITH THIS PATTERN IS THE PRESENCE OF ANOTHER POTENT MCS OVER
PARTS MO AND AR PROGGED TO SPLIT TO THE EAST AND SOUTHWEST LATER
THIS MORNING WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
AFFECTING THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. SURFACE OBS IN THE WAKE OF THIS BOUNDARY SHOW LITTLE
CHANGE WITH THE DIRECTION AND SPEED POSSIBLY LEADING TO LITTLE TO NO
EFFECT FOR AREAS DOWNSTREAM. WITH THIS UNCERTAINTY HAVE OPTED TO ADD
A LITTLE MORE VALUE TO THE CURRENT RAIN CHANCES FOR TODAY WITH THE
BETTER COVERAGE OCCURRING OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
CWFA EARLY TODAY SHIFTING EAST THROUGH TONIGHT. LATEST MODEL
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A RATHER MOIST COLUMN IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WITH PWATS RANGING FROM 1.6 TO 1.8 INCHES WITH MARGINAL LAPSE
RATES. MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO DEPICTS HIGHER THEN NORMAL
BULK SHEAR VALUES MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH LATER TODAY WHICH COULD
BE SIGNAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS GENERALLY FROM THE
WEST AND NORTHWEST WITH THE BETTER CONVECTION LATER TODAY. AS FOR
THE COVERAGE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY HAVE OPTED TO LEAN
MOSTLY TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE HIGHER RES MODEL GUIDANCE...HRRR/SPC
WRF WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE PATTERN MENTIONED ABOVE. STRONG GUSTY
WINDS AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN
THREATS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. ATTM...THIS UNDERCUTS BOTH 00Z MAV
AND MET MOS SO SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POP FORECAST MAY BE NEEDED
LATER THIS MORNING. AS FOR TEMPS WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE COOLER MET
GUIDANCE AND ADJUST FOR CONSISTENCY WITH OTHER WFOS. HIGHS TODAY
WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S INLAND AND THE UPPER
80S ALONG THE COAST. TONIGHTS LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S FOR MOST
INLAND AREAS AND THE MID 70S CLOSER TO THE COAST. 32/EE

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS MODERATE.

[FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT]...A GENERAL ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL
BE PREVALENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION FRIDAY ON THE BASE
OF A PERSISTENT MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION...WHILE MID LEVEL RIDGING
STRETCHES WESTWARD FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT
IN PLACING THE BETTER MOISTURE AND LIFT WELL TO THE NORTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA WITHIN ENHANCED MID LEVEL FLOW ALONG AND AHEAD OF A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WHILE SLIGHTLY DRIER AND MORE
SUBSIDENT AIR EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF CLOSER TO THE VICINITY OF THE BUILDING MID LEVEL RIDGE.
ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT TO AT LEAST MENTION A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL AL ALONG THE SEABREEZE AND/OR
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AXIS. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES SHOULD OTHERWISE
TREND UPWARD A LITTLE ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGHS LOOKING TO RANGE
FROM AROUND 90 NEAR THE COAST TO THE LOWER TO MID 90S INLAND. THE
COMBINED EFFECT OF AFTERNOON HUMIDITY WILL RESULT IN MAX HEAT INDICES
IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES. MID LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW WILL
DIG A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH INTO CENTRAL MS/AL FRIDAY NIGHT...AND AN
ASSOCIATED COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD MAINLY IMPACT CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF BOTH STATES...BUT WILL CONTINUE A LOW CHANCE
OF SHOWERS/STORMS OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT OVER THE INTERIOR GIVEN
POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND INCREASED
MOISTURE AND LIFT ALONG THE INCREASED MID LEVEL FLOW. LOWS FRIDAY
NIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S INLAND TO THE MID 70S TO AROUND
80 NEAR THE COAST. /21

LONG TERM [INDEPENDENCE DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...A PERSISTENT MID
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL EXTEND FROM THE VICINITY OF THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS/OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH MOIST WESTERLY MID
LEVEL FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND ON THE
BASE OF THE CONTINUED TROUGH THE TENNESSEE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION THIS WEEKEND...AND OUR FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN
UNDERNEATH MOIST WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE
THROUGH SUNDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE
BETWEEN 1.6 AND 1.9 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...AND WITH PERIODIC EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION...WE EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP BOTH INDEPENDENCE DAY AND SUNDAY. A FEW STORMS COULD BE
STRONG AT TIMES GIVEN MLCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1000-2000 J/KG WITH
STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SHOULD ADVANCE EASTWARD TOWARD
THE EAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MID LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD
ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF THE RIDGE...ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SHOULD BE AVAILABLE TO AID IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STORMS EACH DAY. SEASONABLY HOT/HUMID CONDITIONS SHOULD
PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. /21

AVIATION...
02.12Z TAF ISSUANCE...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
03.12Z. COULD SEE SHORT PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS MOSTLY IN AND AROUND
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING MOSTLY IN THE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST DIRECTION THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY SOUTHWEST
AT 6 TO 10 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS MOSTLY IN THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON...SHIFTING WEST AT 4 TO 6 KNOTS LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. 32/EE

MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN GULF WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK LEADING MOSTLY TO A LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. ONE CONCERN FOR TODAY WILL THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST AND NORTH LATER THIS MORNING
AND THIS AFTERNOON GENERATING GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS CLIMBING
TO THE 30 TO 40 KT RANGE OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER. MARINERS SHOULD MONITOR
THIS SITUATION CLOSELY TODAY AND LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR
LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS IF THREATENING WEATHER IS APPROACHING YOU AREA.
GENERALLY LITTLE CHANGE IN SEAS IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
THOUGH SEAS WILL BE HIGHER IN AND AROUND THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PD. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      89  72  92  74  90 /  50  10  10  10  30
PENSACOLA   89  75  92  77  90 /  50  05  10  10  30
DESTIN      89  79  90  79  90 /  50  10  10  10  30
EVERGREEN   90  71  92  72  92 /  60  20  20  20  40
WAYNESBORO  91  71  93  72  89 /  50  20  10  30  40
CAMDEN      91  72  92  72  91 /  60  20  20  30  40
CRESTVIEW   90  73  94  71  93 /  50  10  10  10  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 021107 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
607 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...DID A QUICK UPDATE TO THE CURRENT ZONE FORECAST MAINLY
TO INCREASE POPS FOR MOST AREAS. LATEST SATELITTE LOOPS SHOW MCS
WELL TO THE NORTH SPLITTING OVER MO AND WESTERN TN WITH ONE SECTOR
MOVING SOUTH INTO LOWER AR AND NORTHER MS...TRACKING SOUTH TOWARDS
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. GUSTY STRAIGHT LINE WINDS WITH POSSIBLE
STRONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MOVING WELL AHEAD OF THE CONVECTION WILL
BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON. 32/EE

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS MODERATE TO HIGH.

.MARINE...DID A QUICK UPDATE TO THE CURRENT MARINE FORECAST MAINLY TO
INCREASE POPS FOR MOST AREAS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED TO THE WEST AND MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON...TAPERING OFF IN THE AFTERNOON AS CONVECTION INLAND
GETS BETTER ORGANIZED. 32/EE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 502 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...BROAD MID TO UPPER TROF OVER THE
MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS STRETCHING WEST OVER THE UPPER MS RIVER
VALLEY AND NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT VERY SLOWLY
THROUGH TONIGHT RESULTING IN GOOD LIFT FOR TODAYS CONVECTION
OCCURRING OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA THIS
MORNING SHIFTING EAST AFFECTING MOST INLAND AREAS EAST OF THE I-65
CORRIDOR...STRETCHING SOUTH TO TO NEAR THE AL/FL BORDER. MAIN
CONCERN WITH THIS PATTERN IS THE PRESENCE OF ANOTHER POTENT MCS OVER
PARTS MO AND AR PROGGED TO SPLIT TO THE EAST AND SOUTHWEST LATER
THIS MORNING WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
AFFECTING THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. SURFACE OBS IN THE WAKE OF THIS BOUNDARY SHOW LITTLE
CHANGE WITH THE DIRECTION AND SPEED POSSIBLY LEADING TO LITTLE TO NO
EFFECT FOR AREAS DOWNSTREAM. WITH THIS UNCERTAINTY HAVE OPTED TO ADD
A LITTLE MORE VALUE TO THE CURRENT RAIN CHANCES FOR TODAY WITH THE
BETTER COVERAGE OCCURRING OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
CWFA EARLY TODAY SHIFTING EAST THROUGH TONIGHT. LATEST MODEL
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A RATHER MOIST COLUMN IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WITH PWATS RANGING FROM 1.6 TO 1.8 INCHES WITH MARGINAL LAPSE
RATES. MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO DEPICTS HIGHER THEN NORMAL
BULK SHEAR VALUES MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH LATER TODAY WHICH COULD
BE SIGNAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS GENERALLY FROM THE
WEST AND NORTHWEST WITH THE BETTER CONVECTION LATER TODAY. AS FOR
THE COVERAGE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY HAVE OPTED TO LEAN
MOSTLY TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE HIGHER RES MODEL GUIDANCE...HRRR/SPC
WRF WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE PATTERN MENTIONED ABOVE. STRONG GUSTY
WINDS AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN
THREATS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. ATTM...THIS UNDERCUTS BOTH 00Z MAV
AND MET MOS SO SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POP FORECAST MAY BE NEEDED
LATER THIS MORNING. AS FOR TEMPS WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE COOLER MET
GUIDANCE AND ADJUST FOR CONSISTENCY WITH OTHER WFOS. HIGHS TODAY
WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S INLAND AND THE UPPER
80S ALONG THE COAST. TONIGHTS LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S FOR MOST
INLAND AREAS AND THE MID 70S CLOSER TO THE COAST. 32/EE

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS MODERATE.

[FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT]...A GENERAL ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL
BE PREVALENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION FRIDAY ON THE BASE
OF A PERSISTENT MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION...WHILE MID LEVEL RIDGING
STRETCHES WESTWARD FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT
IN PLACING THE BETTER MOISTURE AND LIFT WELL TO THE NORTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA WITHIN ENHANCED MID LEVEL FLOW ALONG AND AHEAD OF A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WHILE SLIGHTLY DRIER AND MORE
SUBSIDENT AIR EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF CLOSER TO THE VICINITY OF THE BUILDING MID LEVEL RIDGE.
ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT TO AT LEAST MENTION A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL AL ALONG THE SEABREEZE AND/OR
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AXIS. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES SHOULD OTHERWISE
TREND UPWARD A LITTLE ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGHS LOOKING TO RANGE
FROM AROUND 90 NEAR THE COAST TO THE LOWER TO MID 90S INLAND. THE
COMBINED EFFECT OF AFTERNOON HUMIDITY WILL RESULT IN MAX HEAT INDICES
IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES. MID LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW WILL
DIG A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH INTO CENTRAL MS/AL FRIDAY NIGHT...AND AN
ASSOCIATED COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD MAINLY IMPACT CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF BOTH STATES...BUT WILL CONTINUE A LOW CHANCE
OF SHOWERS/STORMS OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT OVER THE INTERIOR GIVEN
POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND INCREASED
MOISTURE AND LIFT ALONG THE INCREASED MID LEVEL FLOW. LOWS FRIDAY
NIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S INLAND TO THE MID 70S TO AROUND
80 NEAR THE COAST. /21

LONG TERM [INDEPENDENCE DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...A PERSISTENT MID
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL EXTEND FROM THE VICINITY OF THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS/OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH MOIST WESTERLY MID
LEVEL FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND ON THE
BASE OF THE CONTINUED TROUGH THE TENNESSEE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION THIS WEEKEND...AND OUR FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN
UNDERNEATH MOIST WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE
THROUGH SUNDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE
BETWEEN 1.6 AND 1.9 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...AND WITH PERIODIC EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION...WE EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP BOTH INDEPENDENCE DAY AND SUNDAY. A FEW STORMS COULD BE
STRONG AT TIMES GIVEN MLCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1000-2000 J/KG WITH
STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SHOULD ADVANCE EASTWARD TOWARD
THE EAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MID LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD
ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF THE RIDGE...ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SHOULD BE AVAILABLE TO AID IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STORMS EACH DAY. SEASONABLY HOT/HUMID CONDITIONS SHOULD
PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. /21

AVIATION...
02.12Z TAF ISSUANCE...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
03.12Z. COULD SEE SHORT PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS MOSTLY IN AND AROUND
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING MOSTLY IN THE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST DIRECTION THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY SOUTHWEST
AT 6 TO 10 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS MOSTLY IN THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON...SHIFTING WEST AT 4 TO 6 KNOTS LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. 32/EE

MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN GULF WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK LEADING MOSTLY TO A LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. ONE CONCERN FOR TODAY WILL THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST AND NORTH LATER THIS MORNING
AND THIS AFTERNOON GENERATING GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS CLIMBING
TO THE 30 TO 40 KT RANGE OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER. MARINERS SHOULD MONITOR
THIS SITUATION CLOSELY TODAY AND LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR
LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS IF THREATENING WEATHER IS APPROACHING YOU AREA.
GENERALLY LITTLE CHANGE IN SEAS IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
THOUGH SEAS WILL BE HIGHER IN AND AROUND THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PD. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      89  72  92  74  90 /  50  10  10  10  30
PENSACOLA   89  75  92  77  90 /  50  05  10  10  30
DESTIN      89  79  90  79  90 /  50  10  10  10  30
EVERGREEN   90  71  92  72  92 /  60  20  20  20  40
WAYNESBORO  91  71  93  72  89 /  50  20  10  30  40
CAMDEN      91  72  92  72  91 /  60  20  20  30  40
CRESTVIEW   90  73  94  71  93 /  50  10  10  10  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMOB 021002
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
502 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...BROAD MID TO UPPER TROF OVER THE
MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS STRETCHING WEST OVER THE UPPER MS RIVER
VALLEY AND NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT VERY SLOWLY
THROUGH TONIGHT RESULTING IN GOOD LIFT FOR TODAYS CONVECTION
OCCURRING OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA THIS
MORNING SHIFTING EAST AFFECTING MOST INLAND AREAS EAST OF THE I-65
CORRIDOR...STRETCHING SOUTH TO TO NEAR THE AL/FL BORDER. MAIN
CONCERN WITH THIS PATTERN IS THE PRESENCE OF ANOTHER POTENT MCS OVER
PARTS MO AND AR PROGGED TO SPLIT TO THE EAST AND SOUTHWEST LATER
THIS MORNING WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
AFFECTING THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. SURFACE OBS IN THE WAKE OF THIS BOUNDARY SHOW LITTLE
CHANGE WITH THE DIRECTION AND SPEED POSSIBLY LEADING TO LITTLE TO NO
EFFECT FOR AREAS DOWNSTREAM. WITH THIS UNCERTAINTY HAVE OPTED TO ADD
A LITTLE MORE VALUE TO THE CURRENT RAIN CHANCES FOR TODAY WITH THE
BETTER COVERAGE OCCURRING OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
CWFA EARLY TODAY SHIFTING EAST THROUGH TONIGHT. LATEST MODEL
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A RATHER MOIST COLUMN IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WITH PWATS RANGING FROM 1.6 TO 1.8 INCHES WITH MARGINAL LAPSE
RATES. MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO DEPICTS HIGHER THEN NORMAL
BULK SHEAR VALUES MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH LATER TODAY WHICH COULD
BE SIGNAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS GENERALLY FROM THE
WEST AND NORTHWEST WITH THE BETTER CONVECTION LATER TODAY. AS FOR
THE COVERAGE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY HAVE OPTED TO LEAN
MOSTLY TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE HIGHER RES MODEL GUIDANCE...HRRR/SPC
WRF WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE PATTERN MENTIONED ABOVE. STRONG GUSTY
WINDS AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN
THREATS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. ATTM...THIS UNDERCUTS BOTH 00Z MAV
AND MET MOS SO SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POP FORECAST MAY BE NEEDED
LATER THIS MORNING. AS FOR TEMPS WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE COOLER MET
GUIDANCE AND ADJUST FOR CONSISTENCY WITH OTHER WFOS. HIGHS TODAY
WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S INLAND AND THE UPPER
80S ALONG THE COAST. TONIGHTS LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S FOR MOST
INLAND AREAS AND THE MID 70S CLOSER TO THE COAST. 32/EE

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS MODERATE.

[FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT]...A GENERAL ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL
BE PREVALENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION FRIDAY ON THE BASE
OF A PERSISTENT MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION...WHILE MID LEVEL RIDGING
STRETCHES WESTWARD FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT
IN PLACING THE BETTER MOISTURE AND LIFT WELL TO THE NORTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA WITHIN ENHANCED MID LEVEL FLOW ALONG AND AHEAD OF A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WHILE SLIGHTLY DRIER AND MORE
SUBSIDENT AIR EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF CLOSER TO THE VICINITY OF THE BUILDING MID LEVEL RIDGE.
ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT TO AT LEAST MENTION A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL AL ALONG THE SEABREEZE AND/OR
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AXIS. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES SHOULD OTHERWISE
TREND UPWARD A LITTLE ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGHS LOOKING TO RANGE
FROM AROUND 90 NEAR THE COAST TO THE LOWER TO MID 90S INLAND. THE
COMBINED EFFECT OF AFTERNOON HUMIDITY WILL RESULT IN MAX HEAT INDICES
IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES. MID LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW WILL
DIG A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH INTO CENTRAL MS/AL FRIDAY NIGHT...AND AN
ASSOCIATED COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD MAINLY IMPACT CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF BOTH STATES...BUT WILL CONTINUE A LOW CHANCE
OF SHOWERS/STORMS OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT OVER THE INTERIOR GIVEN
POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND INCREASED
MOISTURE AND LIFT ALONG THE INCREASED MID LEVEL FLOW. LOWS FRIDAY
NIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S INLAND TO THE MID 70S TO AROUND
80 NEAR THE COAST. /21

.LONG TERM [INDEPENDENCE DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...A PERSISTENT MID
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL EXTEND FROM THE VICINITY OF THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS/OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH MOIST WESTERLY MID
LEVEL FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND ON THE
BASE OF THE CONTINUED TROUGH THE TENNESSEE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION THIS WEEKEND...AND OUR FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN
UNDERNEATH MOIST WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE
THROUGH SUNDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE
BETWEEN 1.6 AND 1.9 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...AND WITH PERIODIC EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION...WE EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP BOTH INDEPENDENCE DAY AND SUNDAY. A FEW STORMS COULD BE
STRONG AT TIMES GIVEN MLCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1000-2000 J/KG WITH
STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SHOULD ADVANCE EASTWARD TOWARD
THE EAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MID LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD
ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF THE RIDGE...ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SHOULD BE AVAILABLE TO AID IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STORMS EACH DAY. SEASONABLY HOT/HUMID CONDITIONS SHOULD
PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. /21

&&

.AVIATION...
02.12Z TAF ISSUANCE...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
03.12Z. COULD SEE SHORT PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS MOSTLY IN AND AROUND
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING MOSTLY IN THE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST DIRECTION THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY SOUTHWEST
AT 6 TO 10 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS MOSTLY IN THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON...SHIFTING WEST AT 4 TO 6 KNOTS LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. 32/EE

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN GULF WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK LEADING MOSTLY TO A LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. ONE CONCERN FOR TODAY WILL THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST AND NORTH LATER THIS MORNING
AND THIS AFTERNOON GENERATING GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS CLIMBING
TO THE 30 TO 40 KT RANGE OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER. MARINERS SHOULD MONITOR
THIS SITUATION CLOSELY TODAY AND LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR
LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS IF THREATENING WEATHER IS APPROACHING YOU AREA.
GENERALLY LITTLE CHANGE IN SEAS IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
THOUGH SEAS WILL BE HIGHER IN AND AROUND THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PD. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      89  72  92  74  90 /  40  10  10  10  30
PENSACOLA   89  75  92  77  90 /  40  05  10  10  30
DESTIN      89  79  90  79  90 /  40  10  10  10  30
EVERGREEN   90  71  92  72  92 /  50  20  20  20  40
WAYNESBORO  91  71  93  72  89 /  50  20  10  30  40
CAMDEN      91  72  92  72  91 /  50  20  20  30  40
CRESTVIEW   90  73  94  71  93 /  40  10  10  10  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

32/21





000
FXUS64 KMOB 021002
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
502 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...BROAD MID TO UPPER TROF OVER THE
MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS STRETCHING WEST OVER THE UPPER MS RIVER
VALLEY AND NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT VERY SLOWLY
THROUGH TONIGHT RESULTING IN GOOD LIFT FOR TODAYS CONVECTION
OCCURRING OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA THIS
MORNING SHIFTING EAST AFFECTING MOST INLAND AREAS EAST OF THE I-65
CORRIDOR...STRETCHING SOUTH TO TO NEAR THE AL/FL BORDER. MAIN
CONCERN WITH THIS PATTERN IS THE PRESENCE OF ANOTHER POTENT MCS OVER
PARTS MO AND AR PROGGED TO SPLIT TO THE EAST AND SOUTHWEST LATER
THIS MORNING WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
AFFECTING THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. SURFACE OBS IN THE WAKE OF THIS BOUNDARY SHOW LITTLE
CHANGE WITH THE DIRECTION AND SPEED POSSIBLY LEADING TO LITTLE TO NO
EFFECT FOR AREAS DOWNSTREAM. WITH THIS UNCERTAINTY HAVE OPTED TO ADD
A LITTLE MORE VALUE TO THE CURRENT RAIN CHANCES FOR TODAY WITH THE
BETTER COVERAGE OCCURRING OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
CWFA EARLY TODAY SHIFTING EAST THROUGH TONIGHT. LATEST MODEL
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A RATHER MOIST COLUMN IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WITH PWATS RANGING FROM 1.6 TO 1.8 INCHES WITH MARGINAL LAPSE
RATES. MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO DEPICTS HIGHER THEN NORMAL
BULK SHEAR VALUES MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH LATER TODAY WHICH COULD
BE SIGNAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS GENERALLY FROM THE
WEST AND NORTHWEST WITH THE BETTER CONVECTION LATER TODAY. AS FOR
THE COVERAGE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY HAVE OPTED TO LEAN
MOSTLY TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE HIGHER RES MODEL GUIDANCE...HRRR/SPC
WRF WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE PATTERN MENTIONED ABOVE. STRONG GUSTY
WINDS AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN
THREATS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. ATTM...THIS UNDERCUTS BOTH 00Z MAV
AND MET MOS SO SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POP FORECAST MAY BE NEEDED
LATER THIS MORNING. AS FOR TEMPS WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE COOLER MET
GUIDANCE AND ADJUST FOR CONSISTENCY WITH OTHER WFOS. HIGHS TODAY
WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S INLAND AND THE UPPER
80S ALONG THE COAST. TONIGHTS LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S FOR MOST
INLAND AREAS AND THE MID 70S CLOSER TO THE COAST. 32/EE

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS MODERATE.

[FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT]...A GENERAL ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL
BE PREVALENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION FRIDAY ON THE BASE
OF A PERSISTENT MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION...WHILE MID LEVEL RIDGING
STRETCHES WESTWARD FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT
IN PLACING THE BETTER MOISTURE AND LIFT WELL TO THE NORTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA WITHIN ENHANCED MID LEVEL FLOW ALONG AND AHEAD OF A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WHILE SLIGHTLY DRIER AND MORE
SUBSIDENT AIR EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF CLOSER TO THE VICINITY OF THE BUILDING MID LEVEL RIDGE.
ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT TO AT LEAST MENTION A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL AL ALONG THE SEABREEZE AND/OR
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AXIS. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES SHOULD OTHERWISE
TREND UPWARD A LITTLE ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGHS LOOKING TO RANGE
FROM AROUND 90 NEAR THE COAST TO THE LOWER TO MID 90S INLAND. THE
COMBINED EFFECT OF AFTERNOON HUMIDITY WILL RESULT IN MAX HEAT INDICES
IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES. MID LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW WILL
DIG A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH INTO CENTRAL MS/AL FRIDAY NIGHT...AND AN
ASSOCIATED COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD MAINLY IMPACT CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF BOTH STATES...BUT WILL CONTINUE A LOW CHANCE
OF SHOWERS/STORMS OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT OVER THE INTERIOR GIVEN
POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND INCREASED
MOISTURE AND LIFT ALONG THE INCREASED MID LEVEL FLOW. LOWS FRIDAY
NIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S INLAND TO THE MID 70S TO AROUND
80 NEAR THE COAST. /21

.LONG TERM [INDEPENDENCE DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...A PERSISTENT MID
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL EXTEND FROM THE VICINITY OF THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS/OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH MOIST WESTERLY MID
LEVEL FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND ON THE
BASE OF THE CONTINUED TROUGH THE TENNESSEE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION THIS WEEKEND...AND OUR FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN
UNDERNEATH MOIST WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE
THROUGH SUNDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE
BETWEEN 1.6 AND 1.9 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...AND WITH PERIODIC EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION...WE EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP BOTH INDEPENDENCE DAY AND SUNDAY. A FEW STORMS COULD BE
STRONG AT TIMES GIVEN MLCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1000-2000 J/KG WITH
STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SHOULD ADVANCE EASTWARD TOWARD
THE EAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MID LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD
ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF THE RIDGE...ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SHOULD BE AVAILABLE TO AID IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STORMS EACH DAY. SEASONABLY HOT/HUMID CONDITIONS SHOULD
PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. /21

&&

.AVIATION...
02.12Z TAF ISSUANCE...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
03.12Z. COULD SEE SHORT PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS MOSTLY IN AND AROUND
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING MOSTLY IN THE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST DIRECTION THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY SOUTHWEST
AT 6 TO 10 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS MOSTLY IN THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON...SHIFTING WEST AT 4 TO 6 KNOTS LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. 32/EE

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN GULF WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK LEADING MOSTLY TO A LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. ONE CONCERN FOR TODAY WILL THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST AND NORTH LATER THIS MORNING
AND THIS AFTERNOON GENERATING GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS CLIMBING
TO THE 30 TO 40 KT RANGE OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER. MARINERS SHOULD MONITOR
THIS SITUATION CLOSELY TODAY AND LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR
LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS IF THREATENING WEATHER IS APPROACHING YOU AREA.
GENERALLY LITTLE CHANGE IN SEAS IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
THOUGH SEAS WILL BE HIGHER IN AND AROUND THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PD. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      89  72  92  74  90 /  40  10  10  10  30
PENSACOLA   89  75  92  77  90 /  40  05  10  10  30
DESTIN      89  79  90  79  90 /  40  10  10  10  30
EVERGREEN   90  71  92  72  92 /  50  20  20  20  40
WAYNESBORO  91  71  93  72  89 /  50  20  10  30  40
CAMDEN      91  72  92  72  91 /  50  20  20  30  40
CRESTVIEW   90  73  94  71  93 /  40  10  10  10  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

32/21




000
FXUS64 KMOB 020504 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1204 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z ISSUANCE...DIFFICULT CALL ON WHEN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL
OCCUR DURING THE PERIOD WHICH DEPENDS ON POORLY HANDLED INTERACTION
WITH SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROF OVER THE
REGION. FOR THIS ISSUANCE HAVE STRUCK A BALANCE WITH VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND VCSH DEVELOPING BY 10Z FOLLOWED BY VCTS
DEVELOPING BY 14Z. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY 00Z THURSDAY. LIGHT
SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR 10 KNOTS MID-LATE THURSDAY MORNING.
/29

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 930 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED TO GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AS WHILE CURRENT CONVECTION IS
STEADILY WEAKENING...SOME GUIDANCE SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
REDEVELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT. HAVE ALSO CANCELLED THE HIGH RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS DUE TO IMPROVED SURF CONDITIONS AND DECREASED SWELL. HAVE
MADE OTHER MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. /29

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT]...MUCH CALMER CONDITIONS EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON AS MUCH OF THE AREA IS STILL SOMEWHAT RELATIVELY
STABLE IN THE WAKE OF YESTERDAY`S THUNDERSTORM/OUTFLOW EVENT.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES HAVE HEATED UP TO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER
90S...AND WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...WE ARE JUST
NOW GETTING UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION TO BEGIN TO
DEVELOP OVER THE FCST AREA. TO THE WEST OF THE FCST AREA...IN A
REGION THAT DIDN`T GET AS WORKED OVER YESTERDAY (AND ALSO INFLUENCED
BY A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TODAY)...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO OF NOTE TODAY IS ANOTHER
CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE FCST AREA. OUTFLOW
FROM THE CLUSTER OF STORMS TO THE NORTH MAY APPROACH NORTHERN ZONES
THIS EVENING...AND WITH THE SUPPORT OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WILL LIKELY INITIATE A FEW STORMS UP THAT WAY...BUT NOT AT
THE INTENSITY OF YESTERDAYS EVENT. THE STORMS TO THE WEST WILL
PROBABLY MOVE/BUILD A LITTLE MORE TO THE EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY THIS EVENING AS WELL AS THE OTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED MOVES ON EAST ACROSS AND PAST THE FCST AREA. BY
MID TO LATE EVENING HOWEVER...WITH THE LOSS OF OF SOLAR HEATING WE
EXPECT THE ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH RAPIDLY. ON THURSDAY...EXPECT
CONDITIONS SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAVE TODAY. TAIL END OF THE UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH MENTIONED EARLIER WILL BE
MOVING EAST OUT OF THE FCST AREA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND BE
JUST EAST OF THE AREA BY SUNSET. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO REDEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION AGAIN
TOMORROW...WITH THE BETTER COVERAGE OVER THE EAST NEARER THE UPPER
SUPPORT. SEVERE WEATHER RISK IS VERY LOW FOR BOTH TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT IN THE LOWER 70S OVER INTERIOR
AREAS AND MID/UPPER 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON THURSDAY EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF TODAY...LOWER 90S
INLAND WITH SOME UPPER 80S NEAR THE COAST. 12/DS

THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH LEVEL TROF TO CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN US. AT
THE BASE OF THE TROF...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AVERAGING AROUND 1.8 INCHES. IN THE HIGHER
LEVEL WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW AT THE BASE OF THE HIGH LEVEL
TROF...BEST CORRIDOR FOR THE PASSAGE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE
COMPLEXES LOOKS TO BE POSITIONED FROM THE MID-SOUTH TO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS...GENERALLY NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. WILL STILL
MAINTAIN A SMALL CHANCE OF STORMS => ISOLATED COVERAGES. IN THE
LOWER LEVELS AND SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
NOSES WESTWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...RESULTING IN A LIGHT
SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW. VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN NIGHTTIME LOWS...LOWER 70S
INTERIOR TO MID/UPPER 70S BEACHES. /10

LONG TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES
THAT THE UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE EASTERN US MOVES VERY LITTLE OVER
THE WEEKEND. AT THE BASE OF THE TROF...EMBEDDED MID LEVEL IMPULSES
PIVOTING SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA KEEPS
THE SOUTHERN US POTENTIALLY ACTIVE WITH A SERIES OF THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEXES. THE STORMS LOOK TO INITIATE ALONG A FRONTAL ZONE FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC...TO BE CARRIED EAST
SOUTHEASTWARD IN THE MEAN WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES REMAIN HIGH AND WHEN COMBINED WITH DAYTIME
INSTABILITY...A CHANCE OF STORMS IS FORECAST FOR THE FOURTH AND
CONTINUING SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT A MID LEVEL RIDGE REBUILDS OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH BY WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH MAY ACT TO LIMIT CHANCES OF
DAYTIME STORMS WHILE BRINGING A BIT MORE HEAT TO THE LOCAL AREA.

DAYTIME HIGHS LOOK TO BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL (87 TO 91) OVER THE
WEEKEND. HIGHS TRENDING WARMER NEXT WEEK...WITH MOST AREAS SEEING
NUMBERS IN THE LOWER/MID 90S BY WEDNESDAY. NIGHTTIME LOWS...LOWER 70S
INTERIOR TO MID/UPPER 70S BEACHES. /10

AVIATION...
01/18Z TAFS...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD...BUT
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS MAINLY IN AND AROUND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. MORE
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY...MAINLY FROM MID
MORNING ON. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE PRIMARILY SOUTHWEST AT 6 TO 10
KNOT RANGES...SLIGHTLY HIGHER NEAR THE COAST IN THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING (AND ALSO STRONGER AND GUSTY IN AND NEAR ANY STORMS).
12/DS

MARINE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL PROMOTE A LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO KEEP MOST OF THE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM STORM ACTIVITY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS OVER INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND GENERALLY AWAY FROM THE MARINE AREA.
HOWEVER...SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS. 12/DS

FIRE WEATHER...DEEP MIXED LAYERS RESULT IN ELEVATED DISPERSION. THE
LATEST GRIDDED FORECAST CALLS FOR VERY HIGH DISPERSION OVER THE
INTERIOR OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...INTERIOR OF THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...AND MUCH OF INTERIOR SOUTHWEST ALABAMA BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. DISPERSION INDEX RATINGS REACH BETWEEN 100 AND 110 FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WHICH SUGGESTS HAZARDOUS FIRE CONTROL CONDITIONS. /10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      74  92  74  89  75 /  05  10  10  40  20
PENSACOLA   77  93  76  88  77 /  05  10  10  30  20
DESTIN      79  91  79  86  79 /  10  10  10  20  20
EVERGREEN   72  92  71  89  71 /  20  20  20  30  20
WAYNESBORO  71  92  70  89  72 /  10  20  30  40  30
CAMDEN      71  92  71  88  71 /  20  20  30  40  30
CRESTVIEW   72  94  71  90  72 /  10  10  20  30  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 020504 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1204 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z ISSUANCE...DIFFICULT CALL ON WHEN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL
OCCUR DURING THE PERIOD WHICH DEPENDS ON POORLY HANDLED INTERACTION
WITH SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROF OVER THE
REGION. FOR THIS ISSUANCE HAVE STRUCK A BALANCE WITH VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND VCSH DEVELOPING BY 10Z FOLLOWED BY VCTS
DEVELOPING BY 14Z. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY 00Z THURSDAY. LIGHT
SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR 10 KNOTS MID-LATE THURSDAY MORNING.
/29

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 930 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED TO GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AS WHILE CURRENT CONVECTION IS
STEADILY WEAKENING...SOME GUIDANCE SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
REDEVELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT. HAVE ALSO CANCELLED THE HIGH RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS DUE TO IMPROVED SURF CONDITIONS AND DECREASED SWELL. HAVE
MADE OTHER MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. /29

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT]...MUCH CALMER CONDITIONS EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON AS MUCH OF THE AREA IS STILL SOMEWHAT RELATIVELY
STABLE IN THE WAKE OF YESTERDAY`S THUNDERSTORM/OUTFLOW EVENT.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES HAVE HEATED UP TO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER
90S...AND WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...WE ARE JUST
NOW GETTING UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION TO BEGIN TO
DEVELOP OVER THE FCST AREA. TO THE WEST OF THE FCST AREA...IN A
REGION THAT DIDN`T GET AS WORKED OVER YESTERDAY (AND ALSO INFLUENCED
BY A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TODAY)...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO OF NOTE TODAY IS ANOTHER
CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE FCST AREA. OUTFLOW
FROM THE CLUSTER OF STORMS TO THE NORTH MAY APPROACH NORTHERN ZONES
THIS EVENING...AND WITH THE SUPPORT OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WILL LIKELY INITIATE A FEW STORMS UP THAT WAY...BUT NOT AT
THE INTENSITY OF YESTERDAYS EVENT. THE STORMS TO THE WEST WILL
PROBABLY MOVE/BUILD A LITTLE MORE TO THE EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY THIS EVENING AS WELL AS THE OTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED MOVES ON EAST ACROSS AND PAST THE FCST AREA. BY
MID TO LATE EVENING HOWEVER...WITH THE LOSS OF OF SOLAR HEATING WE
EXPECT THE ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH RAPIDLY. ON THURSDAY...EXPECT
CONDITIONS SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAVE TODAY. TAIL END OF THE UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH MENTIONED EARLIER WILL BE
MOVING EAST OUT OF THE FCST AREA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND BE
JUST EAST OF THE AREA BY SUNSET. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO REDEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION AGAIN
TOMORROW...WITH THE BETTER COVERAGE OVER THE EAST NEARER THE UPPER
SUPPORT. SEVERE WEATHER RISK IS VERY LOW FOR BOTH TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT IN THE LOWER 70S OVER INTERIOR
AREAS AND MID/UPPER 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON THURSDAY EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF TODAY...LOWER 90S
INLAND WITH SOME UPPER 80S NEAR THE COAST. 12/DS

THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH LEVEL TROF TO CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN US. AT
THE BASE OF THE TROF...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AVERAGING AROUND 1.8 INCHES. IN THE HIGHER
LEVEL WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW AT THE BASE OF THE HIGH LEVEL
TROF...BEST CORRIDOR FOR THE PASSAGE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE
COMPLEXES LOOKS TO BE POSITIONED FROM THE MID-SOUTH TO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS...GENERALLY NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. WILL STILL
MAINTAIN A SMALL CHANCE OF STORMS => ISOLATED COVERAGES. IN THE
LOWER LEVELS AND SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
NOSES WESTWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...RESULTING IN A LIGHT
SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW. VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN NIGHTTIME LOWS...LOWER 70S
INTERIOR TO MID/UPPER 70S BEACHES. /10

LONG TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES
THAT THE UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE EASTERN US MOVES VERY LITTLE OVER
THE WEEKEND. AT THE BASE OF THE TROF...EMBEDDED MID LEVEL IMPULSES
PIVOTING SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA KEEPS
THE SOUTHERN US POTENTIALLY ACTIVE WITH A SERIES OF THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEXES. THE STORMS LOOK TO INITIATE ALONG A FRONTAL ZONE FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC...TO BE CARRIED EAST
SOUTHEASTWARD IN THE MEAN WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES REMAIN HIGH AND WHEN COMBINED WITH DAYTIME
INSTABILITY...A CHANCE OF STORMS IS FORECAST FOR THE FOURTH AND
CONTINUING SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT A MID LEVEL RIDGE REBUILDS OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH BY WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH MAY ACT TO LIMIT CHANCES OF
DAYTIME STORMS WHILE BRINGING A BIT MORE HEAT TO THE LOCAL AREA.

DAYTIME HIGHS LOOK TO BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL (87 TO 91) OVER THE
WEEKEND. HIGHS TRENDING WARMER NEXT WEEK...WITH MOST AREAS SEEING
NUMBERS IN THE LOWER/MID 90S BY WEDNESDAY. NIGHTTIME LOWS...LOWER 70S
INTERIOR TO MID/UPPER 70S BEACHES. /10

AVIATION...
01/18Z TAFS...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD...BUT
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS MAINLY IN AND AROUND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. MORE
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY...MAINLY FROM MID
MORNING ON. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE PRIMARILY SOUTHWEST AT 6 TO 10
KNOT RANGES...SLIGHTLY HIGHER NEAR THE COAST IN THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING (AND ALSO STRONGER AND GUSTY IN AND NEAR ANY STORMS).
12/DS

MARINE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL PROMOTE A LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO KEEP MOST OF THE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM STORM ACTIVITY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS OVER INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND GENERALLY AWAY FROM THE MARINE AREA.
HOWEVER...SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS. 12/DS

FIRE WEATHER...DEEP MIXED LAYERS RESULT IN ELEVATED DISPERSION. THE
LATEST GRIDDED FORECAST CALLS FOR VERY HIGH DISPERSION OVER THE
INTERIOR OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...INTERIOR OF THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...AND MUCH OF INTERIOR SOUTHWEST ALABAMA BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. DISPERSION INDEX RATINGS REACH BETWEEN 100 AND 110 FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WHICH SUGGESTS HAZARDOUS FIRE CONTROL CONDITIONS. /10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      74  92  74  89  75 /  05  10  10  40  20
PENSACOLA   77  93  76  88  77 /  05  10  10  30  20
DESTIN      79  91  79  86  79 /  10  10  10  20  20
EVERGREEN   72  92  71  89  71 /  20  20  20  30  20
WAYNESBORO  71  92  70  89  72 /  10  20  30  40  30
CAMDEN      71  92  71  88  71 /  20  20  30  40  30
CRESTVIEW   72  94  71  90  72 /  10  10  20  30  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMOB 020504 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1204 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z ISSUANCE...DIFFICULT CALL ON WHEN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL
OCCUR DURING THE PERIOD WHICH DEPENDS ON POORLY HANDLED INTERACTION
WITH SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROF OVER THE
REGION. FOR THIS ISSUANCE HAVE STRUCK A BALANCE WITH VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND VCSH DEVELOPING BY 10Z FOLLOWED BY VCTS
DEVELOPING BY 14Z. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY 00Z THURSDAY. LIGHT
SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR 10 KNOTS MID-LATE THURSDAY MORNING.
/29

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 930 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED TO GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AS WHILE CURRENT CONVECTION IS
STEADILY WEAKENING...SOME GUIDANCE SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
REDEVELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT. HAVE ALSO CANCELLED THE HIGH RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS DUE TO IMPROVED SURF CONDITIONS AND DECREASED SWELL. HAVE
MADE OTHER MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. /29

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT]...MUCH CALMER CONDITIONS EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON AS MUCH OF THE AREA IS STILL SOMEWHAT RELATIVELY
STABLE IN THE WAKE OF YESTERDAY`S THUNDERSTORM/OUTFLOW EVENT.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES HAVE HEATED UP TO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER
90S...AND WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...WE ARE JUST
NOW GETTING UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION TO BEGIN TO
DEVELOP OVER THE FCST AREA. TO THE WEST OF THE FCST AREA...IN A
REGION THAT DIDN`T GET AS WORKED OVER YESTERDAY (AND ALSO INFLUENCED
BY A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TODAY)...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO OF NOTE TODAY IS ANOTHER
CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE FCST AREA. OUTFLOW
FROM THE CLUSTER OF STORMS TO THE NORTH MAY APPROACH NORTHERN ZONES
THIS EVENING...AND WITH THE SUPPORT OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WILL LIKELY INITIATE A FEW STORMS UP THAT WAY...BUT NOT AT
THE INTENSITY OF YESTERDAYS EVENT. THE STORMS TO THE WEST WILL
PROBABLY MOVE/BUILD A LITTLE MORE TO THE EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY THIS EVENING AS WELL AS THE OTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED MOVES ON EAST ACROSS AND PAST THE FCST AREA. BY
MID TO LATE EVENING HOWEVER...WITH THE LOSS OF OF SOLAR HEATING WE
EXPECT THE ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH RAPIDLY. ON THURSDAY...EXPECT
CONDITIONS SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAVE TODAY. TAIL END OF THE UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH MENTIONED EARLIER WILL BE
MOVING EAST OUT OF THE FCST AREA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND BE
JUST EAST OF THE AREA BY SUNSET. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO REDEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION AGAIN
TOMORROW...WITH THE BETTER COVERAGE OVER THE EAST NEARER THE UPPER
SUPPORT. SEVERE WEATHER RISK IS VERY LOW FOR BOTH TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT IN THE LOWER 70S OVER INTERIOR
AREAS AND MID/UPPER 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON THURSDAY EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF TODAY...LOWER 90S
INLAND WITH SOME UPPER 80S NEAR THE COAST. 12/DS

THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH LEVEL TROF TO CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN US. AT
THE BASE OF THE TROF...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AVERAGING AROUND 1.8 INCHES. IN THE HIGHER
LEVEL WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW AT THE BASE OF THE HIGH LEVEL
TROF...BEST CORRIDOR FOR THE PASSAGE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE
COMPLEXES LOOKS TO BE POSITIONED FROM THE MID-SOUTH TO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS...GENERALLY NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. WILL STILL
MAINTAIN A SMALL CHANCE OF STORMS => ISOLATED COVERAGES. IN THE
LOWER LEVELS AND SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
NOSES WESTWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...RESULTING IN A LIGHT
SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW. VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN NIGHTTIME LOWS...LOWER 70S
INTERIOR TO MID/UPPER 70S BEACHES. /10

LONG TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES
THAT THE UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE EASTERN US MOVES VERY LITTLE OVER
THE WEEKEND. AT THE BASE OF THE TROF...EMBEDDED MID LEVEL IMPULSES
PIVOTING SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA KEEPS
THE SOUTHERN US POTENTIALLY ACTIVE WITH A SERIES OF THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEXES. THE STORMS LOOK TO INITIATE ALONG A FRONTAL ZONE FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC...TO BE CARRIED EAST
SOUTHEASTWARD IN THE MEAN WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES REMAIN HIGH AND WHEN COMBINED WITH DAYTIME
INSTABILITY...A CHANCE OF STORMS IS FORECAST FOR THE FOURTH AND
CONTINUING SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT A MID LEVEL RIDGE REBUILDS OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH BY WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH MAY ACT TO LIMIT CHANCES OF
DAYTIME STORMS WHILE BRINGING A BIT MORE HEAT TO THE LOCAL AREA.

DAYTIME HIGHS LOOK TO BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL (87 TO 91) OVER THE
WEEKEND. HIGHS TRENDING WARMER NEXT WEEK...WITH MOST AREAS SEEING
NUMBERS IN THE LOWER/MID 90S BY WEDNESDAY. NIGHTTIME LOWS...LOWER 70S
INTERIOR TO MID/UPPER 70S BEACHES. /10

AVIATION...
01/18Z TAFS...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD...BUT
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS MAINLY IN AND AROUND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. MORE
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY...MAINLY FROM MID
MORNING ON. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE PRIMARILY SOUTHWEST AT 6 TO 10
KNOT RANGES...SLIGHTLY HIGHER NEAR THE COAST IN THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING (AND ALSO STRONGER AND GUSTY IN AND NEAR ANY STORMS).
12/DS

MARINE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL PROMOTE A LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO KEEP MOST OF THE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM STORM ACTIVITY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS OVER INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND GENERALLY AWAY FROM THE MARINE AREA.
HOWEVER...SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS. 12/DS

FIRE WEATHER...DEEP MIXED LAYERS RESULT IN ELEVATED DISPERSION. THE
LATEST GRIDDED FORECAST CALLS FOR VERY HIGH DISPERSION OVER THE
INTERIOR OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...INTERIOR OF THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...AND MUCH OF INTERIOR SOUTHWEST ALABAMA BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. DISPERSION INDEX RATINGS REACH BETWEEN 100 AND 110 FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WHICH SUGGESTS HAZARDOUS FIRE CONTROL CONDITIONS. /10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      74  92  74  89  75 /  05  10  10  40  20
PENSACOLA   77  93  76  88  77 /  05  10  10  30  20
DESTIN      79  91  79  86  79 /  10  10  10  20  20
EVERGREEN   72  92  71  89  71 /  20  20  20  30  20
WAYNESBORO  71  92  70  89  72 /  10  20  30  40  30
CAMDEN      71  92  71  88  71 /  20  20  30  40  30
CRESTVIEW   72  94  71  90  72 /  10  10  20  30  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMOB 020504 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1204 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z ISSUANCE...DIFFICULT CALL ON WHEN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL
OCCUR DURING THE PERIOD WHICH DEPENDS ON POORLY HANDLED INTERACTION
WITH SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROF OVER THE
REGION. FOR THIS ISSUANCE HAVE STRUCK A BALANCE WITH VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND VCSH DEVELOPING BY 10Z FOLLOWED BY VCTS
DEVELOPING BY 14Z. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY 00Z THURSDAY. LIGHT
SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR 10 KNOTS MID-LATE THURSDAY MORNING.
/29

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 930 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED TO GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AS WHILE CURRENT CONVECTION IS
STEADILY WEAKENING...SOME GUIDANCE SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
REDEVELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT. HAVE ALSO CANCELLED THE HIGH RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS DUE TO IMPROVED SURF CONDITIONS AND DECREASED SWELL. HAVE
MADE OTHER MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. /29

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT]...MUCH CALMER CONDITIONS EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON AS MUCH OF THE AREA IS STILL SOMEWHAT RELATIVELY
STABLE IN THE WAKE OF YESTERDAY`S THUNDERSTORM/OUTFLOW EVENT.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES HAVE HEATED UP TO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER
90S...AND WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...WE ARE JUST
NOW GETTING UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION TO BEGIN TO
DEVELOP OVER THE FCST AREA. TO THE WEST OF THE FCST AREA...IN A
REGION THAT DIDN`T GET AS WORKED OVER YESTERDAY (AND ALSO INFLUENCED
BY A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TODAY)...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO OF NOTE TODAY IS ANOTHER
CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE FCST AREA. OUTFLOW
FROM THE CLUSTER OF STORMS TO THE NORTH MAY APPROACH NORTHERN ZONES
THIS EVENING...AND WITH THE SUPPORT OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WILL LIKELY INITIATE A FEW STORMS UP THAT WAY...BUT NOT AT
THE INTENSITY OF YESTERDAYS EVENT. THE STORMS TO THE WEST WILL
PROBABLY MOVE/BUILD A LITTLE MORE TO THE EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY THIS EVENING AS WELL AS THE OTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED MOVES ON EAST ACROSS AND PAST THE FCST AREA. BY
MID TO LATE EVENING HOWEVER...WITH THE LOSS OF OF SOLAR HEATING WE
EXPECT THE ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH RAPIDLY. ON THURSDAY...EXPECT
CONDITIONS SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAVE TODAY. TAIL END OF THE UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH MENTIONED EARLIER WILL BE
MOVING EAST OUT OF THE FCST AREA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND BE
JUST EAST OF THE AREA BY SUNSET. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO REDEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION AGAIN
TOMORROW...WITH THE BETTER COVERAGE OVER THE EAST NEARER THE UPPER
SUPPORT. SEVERE WEATHER RISK IS VERY LOW FOR BOTH TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT IN THE LOWER 70S OVER INTERIOR
AREAS AND MID/UPPER 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON THURSDAY EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF TODAY...LOWER 90S
INLAND WITH SOME UPPER 80S NEAR THE COAST. 12/DS

THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH LEVEL TROF TO CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN US. AT
THE BASE OF THE TROF...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AVERAGING AROUND 1.8 INCHES. IN THE HIGHER
LEVEL WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW AT THE BASE OF THE HIGH LEVEL
TROF...BEST CORRIDOR FOR THE PASSAGE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE
COMPLEXES LOOKS TO BE POSITIONED FROM THE MID-SOUTH TO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS...GENERALLY NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. WILL STILL
MAINTAIN A SMALL CHANCE OF STORMS => ISOLATED COVERAGES. IN THE
LOWER LEVELS AND SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
NOSES WESTWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...RESULTING IN A LIGHT
SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW. VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN NIGHTTIME LOWS...LOWER 70S
INTERIOR TO MID/UPPER 70S BEACHES. /10

LONG TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES
THAT THE UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE EASTERN US MOVES VERY LITTLE OVER
THE WEEKEND. AT THE BASE OF THE TROF...EMBEDDED MID LEVEL IMPULSES
PIVOTING SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA KEEPS
THE SOUTHERN US POTENTIALLY ACTIVE WITH A SERIES OF THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEXES. THE STORMS LOOK TO INITIATE ALONG A FRONTAL ZONE FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC...TO BE CARRIED EAST
SOUTHEASTWARD IN THE MEAN WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES REMAIN HIGH AND WHEN COMBINED WITH DAYTIME
INSTABILITY...A CHANCE OF STORMS IS FORECAST FOR THE FOURTH AND
CONTINUING SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT A MID LEVEL RIDGE REBUILDS OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH BY WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH MAY ACT TO LIMIT CHANCES OF
DAYTIME STORMS WHILE BRINGING A BIT MORE HEAT TO THE LOCAL AREA.

DAYTIME HIGHS LOOK TO BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL (87 TO 91) OVER THE
WEEKEND. HIGHS TRENDING WARMER NEXT WEEK...WITH MOST AREAS SEEING
NUMBERS IN THE LOWER/MID 90S BY WEDNESDAY. NIGHTTIME LOWS...LOWER 70S
INTERIOR TO MID/UPPER 70S BEACHES. /10

AVIATION...
01/18Z TAFS...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD...BUT
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS MAINLY IN AND AROUND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. MORE
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY...MAINLY FROM MID
MORNING ON. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE PRIMARILY SOUTHWEST AT 6 TO 10
KNOT RANGES...SLIGHTLY HIGHER NEAR THE COAST IN THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING (AND ALSO STRONGER AND GUSTY IN AND NEAR ANY STORMS).
12/DS

MARINE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL PROMOTE A LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO KEEP MOST OF THE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM STORM ACTIVITY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS OVER INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND GENERALLY AWAY FROM THE MARINE AREA.
HOWEVER...SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS. 12/DS

FIRE WEATHER...DEEP MIXED LAYERS RESULT IN ELEVATED DISPERSION. THE
LATEST GRIDDED FORECAST CALLS FOR VERY HIGH DISPERSION OVER THE
INTERIOR OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...INTERIOR OF THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...AND MUCH OF INTERIOR SOUTHWEST ALABAMA BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. DISPERSION INDEX RATINGS REACH BETWEEN 100 AND 110 FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WHICH SUGGESTS HAZARDOUS FIRE CONTROL CONDITIONS. /10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      74  92  74  89  75 /  05  10  10  40  20
PENSACOLA   77  93  76  88  77 /  05  10  10  30  20
DESTIN      79  91  79  86  79 /  10  10  10  20  20
EVERGREEN   72  92  71  89  71 /  20  20  20  30  20
WAYNESBORO  71  92  70  89  72 /  10  20  30  40  30
CAMDEN      71  92  71  88  71 /  20  20  30  40  30
CRESTVIEW   72  94  71  90  72 /  10  10  20  30  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 020230 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
930 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED TO GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AS WHILE CURRENT CONVECTION IS
STEADILY WEAKENING...SOME GUIDANCE SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
REDEVELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT. HAVE ALSO CANCELLED THE HIGH RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS DUE TO IMPROVED SURF CONDITIONS AND DECREASED SWELL. HAVE
MADE OTHER MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. /29

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT]...MUCH CALMER CONDITIONS EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON AS MUCH OF THE AREA IS STILL SOMEWHAT RELATIVELY
STABLE IN THE WAKE OF YESTERDAY`S THUNDERSTORM/OUTFLOW EVENT.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES HAVE HEATED UP TO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER
90S...AND WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...WE ARE JUST
NOW GETTING UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION TO BEGIN TO
DEVELOP OVER THE FCST AREA. TO THE WEST OF THE FCST AREA...IN A
REGION THAT DIDN`T GET AS WORKED OVER YESTERDAY (AND ALSO INFLUENCED
BY A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TODAY)...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO OF NOTE TODAY IS ANOTHER
CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE FCST AREA. OUTFLOW
FROM THE CLUSTER OF STORMS TO THE NORTH MAY APPROACH NORTHERN ZONES
THIS EVENING...AND WITH THE SUPPORT OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WILL LIKELY INITIATE A FEW STORMS UP THAT WAY...BUT NOT AT
THE INTENSITY OF YESTERDAYS EVENT. THE STORMS TO THE WEST WILL
PROBABLY MOVE/BUILD A LITTLE MORE TO THE EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY THIS EVENING AS WELL AS THE OTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED MOVES ON EAST ACROSS AND PAST THE FCST AREA. BY
MID TO LATE EVENING HOWEVER...WITH THE LOSS OF OF SOLAR HEATING WE
EXPECT THE ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH RAPIDLY. ON THURSDAY...EXPECT
CONDITIONS SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAVE TODAY. TAIL END OF THE UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH MENTIONED EARLIER WILL BE
MOVING EAST OUT OF THE FCST AREA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND BE
JUST EAST OF THE AREA BY SUNSET. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO REDEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION AGAIN
TOMORROW...WITH THE BETTER COVERAGE OVER THE EAST NEARER THE UPPER
SUPPORT. SEVERE WEATHER RISK IS VERY LOW FOR BOTH TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT IN THE LOWER 70S OVER INTERIOR
AREAS AND MID/UPPER 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON THURSDAY EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF TODAY...LOWER 90S
INLAND WITH SOME UPPER 80S NEAR THE COAST. 12/DS

THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH LEVEL TROF TO CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN US. AT
THE BASE OF THE TROF...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AVERAGING AROUND 1.8 INCHES. IN THE HIGHER
LEVEL WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW AT THE BASE OF THE HIGH LEVEL
TROF...BEST CORRIDOR FOR THE PASSAGE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE
COMPLEXES LOOKS TO BE POSITIONED FROM THE MID-SOUTH TO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS...GENERALLY NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. WILL STILL
MAINTAIN A SMALL CHANCE OF STORMS => ISOLATED COVERAGES. IN THE
LOWER LEVELS AND SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
NOSES WESTWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...RESULTING IN A LIGHT
SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW. VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN NIGHTTIME LOWS...LOWER 70S
INTERIOR TO MID/UPPER 70S BEACHES. /10

LONG TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES
THAT THE UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE EASTERN US MOVES VERY LITTLE OVER
THE WEEKEND. AT THE BASE OF THE TROF...EMBEDDED MID LEVEL IMPULSES
PIVOTING SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA KEEPS
THE SOUTHERN US POTENTIALLY ACTIVE WITH A SERIES OF THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEXES. THE STORMS LOOK TO INITIATE ALONG A FRONTAL ZONE FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC...TO BE CARRIED EAST
SOUTHEASTWARD IN THE MEAN WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES REMAIN HIGH AND WHEN COMBINED WITH DAYTIME
INSTABILITY...A CHANCE OF STORMS IS FORECAST FOR THE FOURTH AND
CONTINUING SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT A MID LEVEL RIDGE REBUILDS OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH BY WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH MAY ACT TO LIMIT CHANCES OF
DAYTIME STORMS WHILE BRINGING A BIT MORE HEAT TO THE LOCAL AREA.

DAYTIME HIGHS LOOK TO BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL (87 TO 91) OVER THE
WEEKEND. HIGHS TRENDING WARMER NEXT WEEK...WITH MOST AREAS SEEING
NUMBERS IN THE LOWER/MID 90S BY WEDNESDAY. NIGHTTIME LOWS...LOWER 70S
INTERIOR TO MID/UPPER 70S BEACHES. /10

AVIATION...
01/18Z TAFS...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD...BUT
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS MAINLY IN AND AROUND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. MORE
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY...MAINLY FROM MID
MORNING ON. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE PRIMARILY SOUTHWEST AT 6 TO 10
KNOT RANGES...SLIGHTLY HIGHER NEAR THE COAST IN THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING (AND ALSO STRONGER AND GUSTY IN AND NEAR ANY STORMS).
12/DS

MARINE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL PROMOTE A LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO KEEP MOST OF THE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM STORM ACTIVITY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS OVER INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND GENERALLY AWAY FROM THE MARINE AREA.
HOWEVER...SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS. 12/DS

FIRE WEATHER...DEEP MIXED LAYERS RESULT IN ELEVATED DISPERSION. THE
LATEST GRIDDED FORECAST CALLS FOR VERY HIGH DISPERSION OVER THE
INTERIOR OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...INTERIOR OF THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...AND MUCH OF INTERIOR SOUTHWEST ALABAMA BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. DISPERSION INDEX RATINGS REACH BETWEEN 100 AND 110 FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WHICH SUGGESTS HAZARDOUS FIRE CONTROL CONDITIONS. /10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      73  90  74  92  74 /  20  20  05  10  10
PENSACOLA   76  88  77  93  76 /  20  20  05  10  10
DESTIN      78  87  79  91  79 /  20  30  10  10  10
EVERGREEN   72  90  72  92  71 /  20  30  20  20  20
WAYNESBORO  72  91  71  92  70 /  20  30  10  20  30
CAMDEN      72  90  71  92  71 /  20  30  20  20  30
CRESTVIEW   72  90  72  94  71 /  20  30  10  10  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMOB 020230 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
930 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED TO GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AS WHILE CURRENT CONVECTION IS
STEADILY WEAKENING...SOME GUIDANCE SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
REDEVELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT. HAVE ALSO CANCELLED THE HIGH RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS DUE TO IMPROVED SURF CONDITIONS AND DECREASED SWELL. HAVE
MADE OTHER MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. /29

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT]...MUCH CALMER CONDITIONS EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON AS MUCH OF THE AREA IS STILL SOMEWHAT RELATIVELY
STABLE IN THE WAKE OF YESTERDAY`S THUNDERSTORM/OUTFLOW EVENT.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES HAVE HEATED UP TO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER
90S...AND WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...WE ARE JUST
NOW GETTING UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION TO BEGIN TO
DEVELOP OVER THE FCST AREA. TO THE WEST OF THE FCST AREA...IN A
REGION THAT DIDN`T GET AS WORKED OVER YESTERDAY (AND ALSO INFLUENCED
BY A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TODAY)...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO OF NOTE TODAY IS ANOTHER
CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE FCST AREA. OUTFLOW
FROM THE CLUSTER OF STORMS TO THE NORTH MAY APPROACH NORTHERN ZONES
THIS EVENING...AND WITH THE SUPPORT OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WILL LIKELY INITIATE A FEW STORMS UP THAT WAY...BUT NOT AT
THE INTENSITY OF YESTERDAYS EVENT. THE STORMS TO THE WEST WILL
PROBABLY MOVE/BUILD A LITTLE MORE TO THE EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY THIS EVENING AS WELL AS THE OTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED MOVES ON EAST ACROSS AND PAST THE FCST AREA. BY
MID TO LATE EVENING HOWEVER...WITH THE LOSS OF OF SOLAR HEATING WE
EXPECT THE ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH RAPIDLY. ON THURSDAY...EXPECT
CONDITIONS SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAVE TODAY. TAIL END OF THE UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH MENTIONED EARLIER WILL BE
MOVING EAST OUT OF THE FCST AREA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND BE
JUST EAST OF THE AREA BY SUNSET. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO REDEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION AGAIN
TOMORROW...WITH THE BETTER COVERAGE OVER THE EAST NEARER THE UPPER
SUPPORT. SEVERE WEATHER RISK IS VERY LOW FOR BOTH TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT IN THE LOWER 70S OVER INTERIOR
AREAS AND MID/UPPER 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON THURSDAY EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF TODAY...LOWER 90S
INLAND WITH SOME UPPER 80S NEAR THE COAST. 12/DS

THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH LEVEL TROF TO CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN US. AT
THE BASE OF THE TROF...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AVERAGING AROUND 1.8 INCHES. IN THE HIGHER
LEVEL WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW AT THE BASE OF THE HIGH LEVEL
TROF...BEST CORRIDOR FOR THE PASSAGE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE
COMPLEXES LOOKS TO BE POSITIONED FROM THE MID-SOUTH TO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS...GENERALLY NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. WILL STILL
MAINTAIN A SMALL CHANCE OF STORMS => ISOLATED COVERAGES. IN THE
LOWER LEVELS AND SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
NOSES WESTWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...RESULTING IN A LIGHT
SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW. VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN NIGHTTIME LOWS...LOWER 70S
INTERIOR TO MID/UPPER 70S BEACHES. /10

LONG TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES
THAT THE UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE EASTERN US MOVES VERY LITTLE OVER
THE WEEKEND. AT THE BASE OF THE TROF...EMBEDDED MID LEVEL IMPULSES
PIVOTING SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA KEEPS
THE SOUTHERN US POTENTIALLY ACTIVE WITH A SERIES OF THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEXES. THE STORMS LOOK TO INITIATE ALONG A FRONTAL ZONE FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC...TO BE CARRIED EAST
SOUTHEASTWARD IN THE MEAN WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES REMAIN HIGH AND WHEN COMBINED WITH DAYTIME
INSTABILITY...A CHANCE OF STORMS IS FORECAST FOR THE FOURTH AND
CONTINUING SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT A MID LEVEL RIDGE REBUILDS OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH BY WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH MAY ACT TO LIMIT CHANCES OF
DAYTIME STORMS WHILE BRINGING A BIT MORE HEAT TO THE LOCAL AREA.

DAYTIME HIGHS LOOK TO BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL (87 TO 91) OVER THE
WEEKEND. HIGHS TRENDING WARMER NEXT WEEK...WITH MOST AREAS SEEING
NUMBERS IN THE LOWER/MID 90S BY WEDNESDAY. NIGHTTIME LOWS...LOWER 70S
INTERIOR TO MID/UPPER 70S BEACHES. /10

AVIATION...
01/18Z TAFS...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD...BUT
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS MAINLY IN AND AROUND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. MORE
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY...MAINLY FROM MID
MORNING ON. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE PRIMARILY SOUTHWEST AT 6 TO 10
KNOT RANGES...SLIGHTLY HIGHER NEAR THE COAST IN THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING (AND ALSO STRONGER AND GUSTY IN AND NEAR ANY STORMS).
12/DS

MARINE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL PROMOTE A LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO KEEP MOST OF THE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM STORM ACTIVITY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS OVER INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND GENERALLY AWAY FROM THE MARINE AREA.
HOWEVER...SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS. 12/DS

FIRE WEATHER...DEEP MIXED LAYERS RESULT IN ELEVATED DISPERSION. THE
LATEST GRIDDED FORECAST CALLS FOR VERY HIGH DISPERSION OVER THE
INTERIOR OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...INTERIOR OF THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...AND MUCH OF INTERIOR SOUTHWEST ALABAMA BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. DISPERSION INDEX RATINGS REACH BETWEEN 100 AND 110 FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WHICH SUGGESTS HAZARDOUS FIRE CONTROL CONDITIONS. /10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      73  90  74  92  74 /  20  20  05  10  10
PENSACOLA   76  88  77  93  76 /  20  20  05  10  10
DESTIN      78  87  79  91  79 /  20  30  10  10  10
EVERGREEN   72  90  72  92  71 /  20  30  20  20  20
WAYNESBORO  72  91  71  92  70 /  20  30  10  20  30
CAMDEN      72  90  71  92  71 /  20  30  20  20  30
CRESTVIEW   72  90  72  94  71 /  20  30  10  10  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 012056
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
356 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT]...MUCH CALMER CONDITIONS EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON AS MUCH OF THE AREA IS STILL SOMEWHAT RELATIVELY
STABLE IN THE WAKE OF YESTERDAY`S THUNDERSTORM/OUTFLOW EVENT.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES HAVE HEATED UP TO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER
90S...AND WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...WE ARE JUST
NOW GETTING UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION TO BEGIN TO
DEVELOP OVER THE FCST AREA. TO THE WEST OF THE FCST AREA...IN A
REGION THAT DIDN`T GET AS WORKED OVER YESTERDAY (AND ALSO INFLUENCED
BY A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TODAY)...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO OF NOTE TODAY IS ANOTHER
CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE FCST AREA. OUTFLOW
FROM THE CLUSTER OF STORMS TO THE NORTH MAY APPROACH NORTHERN ZONES
THIS EVENING...AND WITH THE SUPPORT OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WILL LIKELY INITIATE A FEW STORMS UP THAT WAY...BUT NOT AT
THE INTENSITY OF YESTERDAYS EVENT. THE STORMS TO THE WEST WILL
PROBABLY MOVE/BUILD A LITTLE MORE TO THE EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY THIS EVENING AS WELL AS THE OTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED MOVES ON EAST ACROSS AND PAST THE FCST AREA. BY
MID TO LATE EVENING HOWEVER...WITH THE LOSS OF OF SOLAR HEATING WE
EXPECT THE ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH RAPIDLY. ON THURSDAY...EXPECT
CONDITIONS SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAVE TODAY. TAIL END OF THE UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH MENTIONED EARLIER WILL BE
MOVING EAST OUT OF THE FCST AREA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND BE
JUST EAST OF THE AREA BY SUNSET. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO REDEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION AGAIN
TOMORROW...WITH THE BETTER COVERAGE OVER THE EAST NEARER THE UPPER
SUPPORT. SEVERE WEATHER RISK IS VERY LOW FOR BOTH TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT IN THE LOWER 70S OVER INTERIOR
AREAS AND MID/UPPER 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON THURSDAY EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF TODAY...LOWER 90S
INLAND WITH SOME UPPER 80S NEAR THE COAST. 12/DS

THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH LEVEL TROF TO CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN US. AT
THE BASE OF THE TROF...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AVERAGING AROUND 1.8 INCHES. IN THE HIGHER
LEVEL WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW AT THE BASE OF THE HIGH LEVEL
TROF...BEST CORRIDOR FOR THE PASSAGE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE
COMPLEXES LOOKS TO BE POSITIONED FROM THE MID-SOUTH TO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS...GENERALLY NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. WILL STILL
MAINTAIN A SMALL CHANCE OF STORMS => ISOLATED COVERAGES. IN THE
LOWER LEVELS AND SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
NOSES WESTWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...RESULTING IN A LIGHT
SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW. VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN NIGHTTIME LOWS...LOWER 70S
INTERIOR TO MID/UPPER 70S BEACHES. /10

.LONG TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES
THAT THE UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE EASTERN US MOVES VERY LITTLE OVER
THE WEEKEND. AT THE BASE OF THE TROF...EMBEDDED MID LEVEL IMPULSES
PIVOTING SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA KEEPS
THE SOUTHERN US POTENTIALLY ACTIVE WITH A SERIES OF THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEXES. THE STORMS LOOK TO INITIATE ALONG A FRONTAL ZONE FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC...TO BE CARRIED EAST
SOUTHEASTWARD IN THE MEAN WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES REMAIN HIGH AND WHEN COMBINED WITH DAYTIME
INSTABILITY...A CHANCE OF STORMS IS FORECAST FOR THE FOURTH AND
CONTINUING SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT A MID LEVEL RIDGE REBUILDS OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH BY WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH MAY ACT TO LIMIT CHANCES OF
DAYTIME STORMS WHILE BRINGING A BIT MORE HEAT TO THE LOCAL AREA.

DAYTIME HIGHS LOOK TO BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL (87 TO 91) OVER THE
WEEKEND. HIGHS TRENDING WARMER NEXT WEEK...WITH MOST AREAS SEEING
NUMBERS IN THE LOWER/MID 90S BY WEDNESDAY. NIGHTTIME LOWS...LOWER 70S
INTERIOR TO MID/UPPER 70S BEACHES. /10

&&

.AVIATION...
01/18Z TAFS...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD...BUT
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS MAINLY IN AND AROUND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. MORE
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY...MAINLY FROM MID
MORNING ON. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE PRIMARILY SOUTHWEST AT 6 TO 10
KNOT RANGES...SLIGHTLY HIGHER NEAR THE COAST IN THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING (AND ALSO STRONGER AND GUSTY IN AND NEAR ANY STORMS).
12/DS

&&

.MARINE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL PROMOTE A LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO KEEP MOST OF THE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM STORM ACTIVITY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS OVER INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND GENERALLY AWAY FROM THE MARINE AREA.
HOWEVER...SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS. 12/DS

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DEEP MIXED LAYERS RESULT IN ELEVATED DISPERSION. THE
LATEST GRIDDED FORECAST CALLS FOR VERY HIGH DISPERSION OVER THE
INTERIOR OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...INTERIOR OF THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...AND MUCH OF INTERIOR SOUTHWEST ALABAMA BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. DISPERSION INDEX RATINGS REACH BETWEEN 100 AND 110 FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WHICH SUGGESTS HAZARDOUS FIRE CONTROL CONDITIONS. /10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      73  90  74  92  74 /  20  20  05  10  10
PENSACOLA   76  88  77  93  76 /  20  20  05  10  10
DESTIN      78  87  79  91  79 /  20  30  10  10  10
EVERGREEN   72  90  72  92  71 /  30  30  20  20  20
WAYNESBORO  72  91  71  92  70 /  30  30  10  20  30
CAMDEN      72  90  71  92  71 /  40  30  20  20  30
CRESTVIEW   72  90  72  94  71 /  20  30  10  10  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR BALDWIN
     COASTAL-MOBILE COASTAL.

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR ESCAMBIA
     COASTAL-OKALOOSA COASTAL-SANTA ROSA COASTAL.

MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 012056
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
356 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT]...MUCH CALMER CONDITIONS EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON AS MUCH OF THE AREA IS STILL SOMEWHAT RELATIVELY
STABLE IN THE WAKE OF YESTERDAY`S THUNDERSTORM/OUTFLOW EVENT.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES HAVE HEATED UP TO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER
90S...AND WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...WE ARE JUST
NOW GETTING UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION TO BEGIN TO
DEVELOP OVER THE FCST AREA. TO THE WEST OF THE FCST AREA...IN A
REGION THAT DIDN`T GET AS WORKED OVER YESTERDAY (AND ALSO INFLUENCED
BY A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TODAY)...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO OF NOTE TODAY IS ANOTHER
CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE FCST AREA. OUTFLOW
FROM THE CLUSTER OF STORMS TO THE NORTH MAY APPROACH NORTHERN ZONES
THIS EVENING...AND WITH THE SUPPORT OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WILL LIKELY INITIATE A FEW STORMS UP THAT WAY...BUT NOT AT
THE INTENSITY OF YESTERDAYS EVENT. THE STORMS TO THE WEST WILL
PROBABLY MOVE/BUILD A LITTLE MORE TO THE EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY THIS EVENING AS WELL AS THE OTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED MOVES ON EAST ACROSS AND PAST THE FCST AREA. BY
MID TO LATE EVENING HOWEVER...WITH THE LOSS OF OF SOLAR HEATING WE
EXPECT THE ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH RAPIDLY. ON THURSDAY...EXPECT
CONDITIONS SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAVE TODAY. TAIL END OF THE UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH MENTIONED EARLIER WILL BE
MOVING EAST OUT OF THE FCST AREA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND BE
JUST EAST OF THE AREA BY SUNSET. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO REDEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION AGAIN
TOMORROW...WITH THE BETTER COVERAGE OVER THE EAST NEARER THE UPPER
SUPPORT. SEVERE WEATHER RISK IS VERY LOW FOR BOTH TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT IN THE LOWER 70S OVER INTERIOR
AREAS AND MID/UPPER 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON THURSDAY EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF TODAY...LOWER 90S
INLAND WITH SOME UPPER 80S NEAR THE COAST. 12/DS

THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH LEVEL TROF TO CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN US. AT
THE BASE OF THE TROF...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AVERAGING AROUND 1.8 INCHES. IN THE HIGHER
LEVEL WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW AT THE BASE OF THE HIGH LEVEL
TROF...BEST CORRIDOR FOR THE PASSAGE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE
COMPLEXES LOOKS TO BE POSITIONED FROM THE MID-SOUTH TO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS...GENERALLY NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. WILL STILL
MAINTAIN A SMALL CHANCE OF STORMS => ISOLATED COVERAGES. IN THE
LOWER LEVELS AND SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
NOSES WESTWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...RESULTING IN A LIGHT
SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW. VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN NIGHTTIME LOWS...LOWER 70S
INTERIOR TO MID/UPPER 70S BEACHES. /10

.LONG TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES
THAT THE UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE EASTERN US MOVES VERY LITTLE OVER
THE WEEKEND. AT THE BASE OF THE TROF...EMBEDDED MID LEVEL IMPULSES
PIVOTING SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA KEEPS
THE SOUTHERN US POTENTIALLY ACTIVE WITH A SERIES OF THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEXES. THE STORMS LOOK TO INITIATE ALONG A FRONTAL ZONE FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC...TO BE CARRIED EAST
SOUTHEASTWARD IN THE MEAN WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES REMAIN HIGH AND WHEN COMBINED WITH DAYTIME
INSTABILITY...A CHANCE OF STORMS IS FORECAST FOR THE FOURTH AND
CONTINUING SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT A MID LEVEL RIDGE REBUILDS OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH BY WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH MAY ACT TO LIMIT CHANCES OF
DAYTIME STORMS WHILE BRINGING A BIT MORE HEAT TO THE LOCAL AREA.

DAYTIME HIGHS LOOK TO BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL (87 TO 91) OVER THE
WEEKEND. HIGHS TRENDING WARMER NEXT WEEK...WITH MOST AREAS SEEING
NUMBERS IN THE LOWER/MID 90S BY WEDNESDAY. NIGHTTIME LOWS...LOWER 70S
INTERIOR TO MID/UPPER 70S BEACHES. /10

&&

.AVIATION...
01/18Z TAFS...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD...BUT
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS MAINLY IN AND AROUND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. MORE
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY...MAINLY FROM MID
MORNING ON. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE PRIMARILY SOUTHWEST AT 6 TO 10
KNOT RANGES...SLIGHTLY HIGHER NEAR THE COAST IN THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING (AND ALSO STRONGER AND GUSTY IN AND NEAR ANY STORMS).
12/DS

&&

.MARINE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL PROMOTE A LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO KEEP MOST OF THE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM STORM ACTIVITY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS OVER INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND GENERALLY AWAY FROM THE MARINE AREA.
HOWEVER...SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS. 12/DS

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DEEP MIXED LAYERS RESULT IN ELEVATED DISPERSION. THE
LATEST GRIDDED FORECAST CALLS FOR VERY HIGH DISPERSION OVER THE
INTERIOR OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...INTERIOR OF THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...AND MUCH OF INTERIOR SOUTHWEST ALABAMA BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. DISPERSION INDEX RATINGS REACH BETWEEN 100 AND 110 FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WHICH SUGGESTS HAZARDOUS FIRE CONTROL CONDITIONS. /10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      73  90  74  92  74 /  20  20  05  10  10
PENSACOLA   76  88  77  93  76 /  20  20  05  10  10
DESTIN      78  87  79  91  79 /  20  30  10  10  10
EVERGREEN   72  90  72  92  71 /  30  30  20  20  20
WAYNESBORO  72  91  71  92  70 /  30  30  10  20  30
CAMDEN      72  90  71  92  71 /  40  30  20  20  30
CRESTVIEW   72  90  72  94  71 /  20  30  10  10  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR BALDWIN
     COASTAL-MOBILE COASTAL.

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR ESCAMBIA
     COASTAL-OKALOOSA COASTAL-SANTA ROSA COASTAL.

MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





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