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000
FXUS64 KMOB 221144 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
644 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.MARINE UPDATE...SLIGHT INCREASE IN WIND FORECAST FOR SMALL CRAFT
EXERCISE CAUTION ESPECIALLY IN BAYS. WIND AT LOCAL BUOYS INDICATES
IT WAS A BIT STRONGER THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST. NO OTHER CHANGES.
77/BD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 445 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

SHORT TERM [TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT]...LITTLE CHANCE OF RAIN
INLAND. WEAK ZONAL FLOW AT 500 MB WILL HOST SMALL PERTURBATIONS ALONG
A FRONT WHICH HAS ALREADY PASSED US TO THE SOUTHEAST. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM ALONG IT GENERALLY OFFSHORE
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. CAPE RAPIDLY DROPS BELOW 400 J/KG NORTH OF 60
MILES OFFSHORE. PRECIPITABLE WATER DROPS BELOW AN INCH NORTH OF A
LINE FROM HINTON TO LUVERNE ALABAMA....AND LI IS +3 OFFSHORE
INCREASING TO +12 GOING INLAND WITHIN 50 MILES OF THE COAST. ON TOP
OF THAT...POST FRONTAL LAYER SUBSIDENCE AND WEAK DYNAMICS...AS WELL
AS LOW DEWPOINTS WILL KEEP CONVECTION NIL TODAY AND TONIGHT OVER
LAND.

HIGHS TODAY IN THE UPPER 70S IN THE FAR NORTHERN ZONES AND LOW 80S
FURTHER TOWARD THE COAST. LOWS IN THE FAR NORTHERN ZONES IN THE
UPPER 50S AND LOW 70S FURTHER TOWARD THE COAST. /77

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS LOW

UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM OVER THE FOUR CORNERS OF THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST SATURDAY IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHEAST UP ACROSS
THE ROCKIES SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS CAUSES DOWNSTREAM GULF MID LEVEL
RIDGE TO UNDERGO AMPLIFICATION DURING THE DAY. WITH THE
STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL RIDGE ALOFT...RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO BE MINIMAL
SATURDAY. WELL DEFINED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS TO BE ALIGNED FROM
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TO OFF INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. RESULTANT
WIND FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHEASTERLY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY
INTO THE UPPER HALF OF THE 80S. THERE IS A MODERATE
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE GULF BEACHES OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST
FLORIDA FOR SATURDAY DUE TO AN INCREASE IN ONSHORE FLOW. FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT...BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TRENDS HIGHER THROUGH THE
NIGHT AS A LOW LEVEL 1000-850 MB THETA-E RIDGE AXIS BECOMES ORIENTED
FROM THE EASTERN GULF...NORTHWESTWARD INTO OKLAHOMA. THE BETTER
MOISTURE BISECTS THE FORECAST AREA IN HALF WITH THE HIGHER END ALONG
AND WEST OF A LINE FROM WAYNESBORO MISSISSIPPI TO DESTIN
FLORIDA...AND THE DRIER AIR EAST OF THIS LINE. WEAK LOW LAYER LIFT
WITHIN THE BETTER MOISTURE MAY RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE
NIGHT SHOWERS/STORMS FROM PORTIONS OF INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
TO THE GULF COAST AND POINTS OFFSHORE. A MUGGY NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH
LOWS IN THE MID 60S INTERIOR TO THE LOWER HALF OF THE 70S COAST. /10

LONG TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY]...THE GLOBAL WEATHER MODELS
SHOW AN EASTWARD PROGRESSION IN THE GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FIELDS ALOFT
WITH A WELL DEFINED...AMPLIFIED MID LEVEL RIDGE SETTING UP FROM THE
MID ATLANTIC...SOUTHWARD TO OVER FLORIDA TO BEGIN THE OUTLOOK. THE
LOCAL AREA SEES A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THE
RIDGE TO THE EAST AND TROF AXIS OVER THE PLAINS FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. A SERIES OF MID LEVEL IMPULSES/ASCENT WITHIN THE HIGH LEVEL
SOUTHWEST FLOW OPERATES ON DEEPENING LAYER MOISTURE AS TROF AXIS TO
THE WEST TAPS GULF MOISTURE AND PULLS IT NORTHWARD OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE MEMORIAL DAY HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. WITH LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC SCALE WEATHER
PATTERN TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS REMAIN
IN THE FORECAST. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG AT TIMES
PRODUCING BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS. ALTHOUGH THE RISK OF WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS IS LOW
DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE...AN ISOLATED OCCURRENCE CANNOT BE RULED OUT
MAINLY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS WHEN BETTER INSTABILITY IS REALIZED.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST...A BREEZY SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY FLOW
IS POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG THE COAST EACH DAY. FORECASTERS ARE
EVALUATING THE PROSPECT OF A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS SUNDAY...WHICH
MAY CONTINUE INTO MEMORIAL DAY.

DAYTIME HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 85 TO 90 OVER THE INTERIOR.
OVER THE BEACHES...CLOSER PROXIMITY TO GULF KEEPS HIGHS IN THE LOWER
HALF OF THE 80S. WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY ESTABLISHED FROM
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO THE EASTERN US...OVERNIGHT LOWS MODERATE
BACK INTO THE LOWER/MID 70S FOR NEXT WEEK. /10

AVIATION...
22.12Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. WIND LIGHT TO MODERATE AROUND 5 KNOTS FROM THE NORTHEAST
VEERING TO EAST SATURDAY AND SOUTHEAST SUNDAY. /77

MARINE...A HIGH WILL DOMINATE THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF BEHIND A COLD
FRONT PUSHING OUT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF TODAY. THE FRONT WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG IT WELL OFFSHORE AND
MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND IT. THE WIND WILL QUICKLY
DECREASE AND VEER NORTHEAST THEN BECOME SOUTHEAST BY SATURDAY. AS
THE HIGH MOVES FURTHER EAST THIS WEEKEND...THE WIND WILL STRENGTHEN
TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS OVER THE GULF AND SEAS WILL INCREASE...APPROACHING
6 FEET OFFSHORE. THE SWAN CAME OUT SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE GWW WAVE
MODEL BUT WE KEPT THE OUTPUT BECAUSE IT AGREED MORE CLOSELY WITH THE
BRETSCHNEIDER. /77

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      83  62  87  71  87 /  10  05  10  20  40
PENSACOLA   83  66  86  73  86 /  10  10  10  20  40
DESTIN      84  68  86  74  84 /  10  10  05  20  30
EVERGREEN   80  59  88  67  89 /  05  10  05  10  20
WAYNESBORO  80  58  88  67  87 /  05  05  05  10  40
CAMDEN      79  58  88  66  87 /  00  10  05  10  20
CRESTVIEW   85  64  89  67  90 /  05  10  05  10  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMOB 221144 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
644 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.MARINE UPDATE...SLIGHT INCREASE IN WIND FORECAST FOR SMALL CRAFT
EXERCISE CAUTION ESPECIALLY IN BAYS. WIND AT LOCAL BUOYS INDICATES
IT WAS A BIT STRONGER THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST. NO OTHER CHANGES.
77/BD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 445 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

SHORT TERM [TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT]...LITTLE CHANCE OF RAIN
INLAND. WEAK ZONAL FLOW AT 500 MB WILL HOST SMALL PERTURBATIONS ALONG
A FRONT WHICH HAS ALREADY PASSED US TO THE SOUTHEAST. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM ALONG IT GENERALLY OFFSHORE
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. CAPE RAPIDLY DROPS BELOW 400 J/KG NORTH OF 60
MILES OFFSHORE. PRECIPITABLE WATER DROPS BELOW AN INCH NORTH OF A
LINE FROM HINTON TO LUVERNE ALABAMA....AND LI IS +3 OFFSHORE
INCREASING TO +12 GOING INLAND WITHIN 50 MILES OF THE COAST. ON TOP
OF THAT...POST FRONTAL LAYER SUBSIDENCE AND WEAK DYNAMICS...AS WELL
AS LOW DEWPOINTS WILL KEEP CONVECTION NIL TODAY AND TONIGHT OVER
LAND.

HIGHS TODAY IN THE UPPER 70S IN THE FAR NORTHERN ZONES AND LOW 80S
FURTHER TOWARD THE COAST. LOWS IN THE FAR NORTHERN ZONES IN THE
UPPER 50S AND LOW 70S FURTHER TOWARD THE COAST. /77

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS LOW

UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM OVER THE FOUR CORNERS OF THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST SATURDAY IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHEAST UP ACROSS
THE ROCKIES SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS CAUSES DOWNSTREAM GULF MID LEVEL
RIDGE TO UNDERGO AMPLIFICATION DURING THE DAY. WITH THE
STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL RIDGE ALOFT...RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO BE MINIMAL
SATURDAY. WELL DEFINED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS TO BE ALIGNED FROM
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TO OFF INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. RESULTANT
WIND FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHEASTERLY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY
INTO THE UPPER HALF OF THE 80S. THERE IS A MODERATE
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE GULF BEACHES OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST
FLORIDA FOR SATURDAY DUE TO AN INCREASE IN ONSHORE FLOW. FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT...BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TRENDS HIGHER THROUGH THE
NIGHT AS A LOW LEVEL 1000-850 MB THETA-E RIDGE AXIS BECOMES ORIENTED
FROM THE EASTERN GULF...NORTHWESTWARD INTO OKLAHOMA. THE BETTER
MOISTURE BISECTS THE FORECAST AREA IN HALF WITH THE HIGHER END ALONG
AND WEST OF A LINE FROM WAYNESBORO MISSISSIPPI TO DESTIN
FLORIDA...AND THE DRIER AIR EAST OF THIS LINE. WEAK LOW LAYER LIFT
WITHIN THE BETTER MOISTURE MAY RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE
NIGHT SHOWERS/STORMS FROM PORTIONS OF INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
TO THE GULF COAST AND POINTS OFFSHORE. A MUGGY NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH
LOWS IN THE MID 60S INTERIOR TO THE LOWER HALF OF THE 70S COAST. /10

LONG TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY]...THE GLOBAL WEATHER MODELS
SHOW AN EASTWARD PROGRESSION IN THE GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FIELDS ALOFT
WITH A WELL DEFINED...AMPLIFIED MID LEVEL RIDGE SETTING UP FROM THE
MID ATLANTIC...SOUTHWARD TO OVER FLORIDA TO BEGIN THE OUTLOOK. THE
LOCAL AREA SEES A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THE
RIDGE TO THE EAST AND TROF AXIS OVER THE PLAINS FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. A SERIES OF MID LEVEL IMPULSES/ASCENT WITHIN THE HIGH LEVEL
SOUTHWEST FLOW OPERATES ON DEEPENING LAYER MOISTURE AS TROF AXIS TO
THE WEST TAPS GULF MOISTURE AND PULLS IT NORTHWARD OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE MEMORIAL DAY HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. WITH LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC SCALE WEATHER
PATTERN TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS REMAIN
IN THE FORECAST. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG AT TIMES
PRODUCING BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS. ALTHOUGH THE RISK OF WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS IS LOW
DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE...AN ISOLATED OCCURRENCE CANNOT BE RULED OUT
MAINLY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS WHEN BETTER INSTABILITY IS REALIZED.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST...A BREEZY SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY FLOW
IS POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG THE COAST EACH DAY. FORECASTERS ARE
EVALUATING THE PROSPECT OF A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS SUNDAY...WHICH
MAY CONTINUE INTO MEMORIAL DAY.

DAYTIME HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 85 TO 90 OVER THE INTERIOR.
OVER THE BEACHES...CLOSER PROXIMITY TO GULF KEEPS HIGHS IN THE LOWER
HALF OF THE 80S. WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY ESTABLISHED FROM
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO THE EASTERN US...OVERNIGHT LOWS MODERATE
BACK INTO THE LOWER/MID 70S FOR NEXT WEEK. /10

AVIATION...
22.12Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. WIND LIGHT TO MODERATE AROUND 5 KNOTS FROM THE NORTHEAST
VEERING TO EAST SATURDAY AND SOUTHEAST SUNDAY. /77

MARINE...A HIGH WILL DOMINATE THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF BEHIND A COLD
FRONT PUSHING OUT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF TODAY. THE FRONT WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG IT WELL OFFSHORE AND
MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND IT. THE WIND WILL QUICKLY
DECREASE AND VEER NORTHEAST THEN BECOME SOUTHEAST BY SATURDAY. AS
THE HIGH MOVES FURTHER EAST THIS WEEKEND...THE WIND WILL STRENGTHEN
TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS OVER THE GULF AND SEAS WILL INCREASE...APPROACHING
6 FEET OFFSHORE. THE SWAN CAME OUT SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE GWW WAVE
MODEL BUT WE KEPT THE OUTPUT BECAUSE IT AGREED MORE CLOSELY WITH THE
BRETSCHNEIDER. /77

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      83  62  87  71  87 /  10  05  10  20  40
PENSACOLA   83  66  86  73  86 /  10  10  10  20  40
DESTIN      84  68  86  74  84 /  10  10  05  20  30
EVERGREEN   80  59  88  67  89 /  05  10  05  10  20
WAYNESBORO  80  58  88  67  87 /  05  05  05  10  40
CAMDEN      79  58  88  66  87 /  00  10  05  10  20
CRESTVIEW   85  64  89  67  90 /  05  10  05  10  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 221144 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
644 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.MARINE UPDATE...SLIGHT INCREASE IN WIND FORECAST FOR SMALL CRAFT
EXERCISE CAUTION ESPECIALLY IN BAYS. WIND AT LOCAL BUOYS INDICATES
IT WAS A BIT STRONGER THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST. NO OTHER CHANGES.
77/BD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 445 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

SHORT TERM [TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT]...LITTLE CHANCE OF RAIN
INLAND. WEAK ZONAL FLOW AT 500 MB WILL HOST SMALL PERTURBATIONS ALONG
A FRONT WHICH HAS ALREADY PASSED US TO THE SOUTHEAST. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM ALONG IT GENERALLY OFFSHORE
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. CAPE RAPIDLY DROPS BELOW 400 J/KG NORTH OF 60
MILES OFFSHORE. PRECIPITABLE WATER DROPS BELOW AN INCH NORTH OF A
LINE FROM HINTON TO LUVERNE ALABAMA....AND LI IS +3 OFFSHORE
INCREASING TO +12 GOING INLAND WITHIN 50 MILES OF THE COAST. ON TOP
OF THAT...POST FRONTAL LAYER SUBSIDENCE AND WEAK DYNAMICS...AS WELL
AS LOW DEWPOINTS WILL KEEP CONVECTION NIL TODAY AND TONIGHT OVER
LAND.

HIGHS TODAY IN THE UPPER 70S IN THE FAR NORTHERN ZONES AND LOW 80S
FURTHER TOWARD THE COAST. LOWS IN THE FAR NORTHERN ZONES IN THE
UPPER 50S AND LOW 70S FURTHER TOWARD THE COAST. /77

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS LOW

UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM OVER THE FOUR CORNERS OF THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST SATURDAY IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHEAST UP ACROSS
THE ROCKIES SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS CAUSES DOWNSTREAM GULF MID LEVEL
RIDGE TO UNDERGO AMPLIFICATION DURING THE DAY. WITH THE
STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL RIDGE ALOFT...RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO BE MINIMAL
SATURDAY. WELL DEFINED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS TO BE ALIGNED FROM
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TO OFF INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. RESULTANT
WIND FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHEASTERLY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY
INTO THE UPPER HALF OF THE 80S. THERE IS A MODERATE
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE GULF BEACHES OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST
FLORIDA FOR SATURDAY DUE TO AN INCREASE IN ONSHORE FLOW. FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT...BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TRENDS HIGHER THROUGH THE
NIGHT AS A LOW LEVEL 1000-850 MB THETA-E RIDGE AXIS BECOMES ORIENTED
FROM THE EASTERN GULF...NORTHWESTWARD INTO OKLAHOMA. THE BETTER
MOISTURE BISECTS THE FORECAST AREA IN HALF WITH THE HIGHER END ALONG
AND WEST OF A LINE FROM WAYNESBORO MISSISSIPPI TO DESTIN
FLORIDA...AND THE DRIER AIR EAST OF THIS LINE. WEAK LOW LAYER LIFT
WITHIN THE BETTER MOISTURE MAY RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE
NIGHT SHOWERS/STORMS FROM PORTIONS OF INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
TO THE GULF COAST AND POINTS OFFSHORE. A MUGGY NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH
LOWS IN THE MID 60S INTERIOR TO THE LOWER HALF OF THE 70S COAST. /10

LONG TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY]...THE GLOBAL WEATHER MODELS
SHOW AN EASTWARD PROGRESSION IN THE GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FIELDS ALOFT
WITH A WELL DEFINED...AMPLIFIED MID LEVEL RIDGE SETTING UP FROM THE
MID ATLANTIC...SOUTHWARD TO OVER FLORIDA TO BEGIN THE OUTLOOK. THE
LOCAL AREA SEES A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THE
RIDGE TO THE EAST AND TROF AXIS OVER THE PLAINS FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. A SERIES OF MID LEVEL IMPULSES/ASCENT WITHIN THE HIGH LEVEL
SOUTHWEST FLOW OPERATES ON DEEPENING LAYER MOISTURE AS TROF AXIS TO
THE WEST TAPS GULF MOISTURE AND PULLS IT NORTHWARD OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE MEMORIAL DAY HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. WITH LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC SCALE WEATHER
PATTERN TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS REMAIN
IN THE FORECAST. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG AT TIMES
PRODUCING BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS. ALTHOUGH THE RISK OF WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS IS LOW
DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE...AN ISOLATED OCCURRENCE CANNOT BE RULED OUT
MAINLY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS WHEN BETTER INSTABILITY IS REALIZED.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST...A BREEZY SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY FLOW
IS POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG THE COAST EACH DAY. FORECASTERS ARE
EVALUATING THE PROSPECT OF A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS SUNDAY...WHICH
MAY CONTINUE INTO MEMORIAL DAY.

DAYTIME HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 85 TO 90 OVER THE INTERIOR.
OVER THE BEACHES...CLOSER PROXIMITY TO GULF KEEPS HIGHS IN THE LOWER
HALF OF THE 80S. WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY ESTABLISHED FROM
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO THE EASTERN US...OVERNIGHT LOWS MODERATE
BACK INTO THE LOWER/MID 70S FOR NEXT WEEK. /10

AVIATION...
22.12Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. WIND LIGHT TO MODERATE AROUND 5 KNOTS FROM THE NORTHEAST
VEERING TO EAST SATURDAY AND SOUTHEAST SUNDAY. /77

MARINE...A HIGH WILL DOMINATE THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF BEHIND A COLD
FRONT PUSHING OUT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF TODAY. THE FRONT WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG IT WELL OFFSHORE AND
MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND IT. THE WIND WILL QUICKLY
DECREASE AND VEER NORTHEAST THEN BECOME SOUTHEAST BY SATURDAY. AS
THE HIGH MOVES FURTHER EAST THIS WEEKEND...THE WIND WILL STRENGTHEN
TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS OVER THE GULF AND SEAS WILL INCREASE...APPROACHING
6 FEET OFFSHORE. THE SWAN CAME OUT SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE GWW WAVE
MODEL BUT WE KEPT THE OUTPUT BECAUSE IT AGREED MORE CLOSELY WITH THE
BRETSCHNEIDER. /77

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      83  62  87  71  87 /  10  05  10  20  40
PENSACOLA   83  66  86  73  86 /  10  10  10  20  40
DESTIN      84  68  86  74  84 /  10  10  05  20  30
EVERGREEN   80  59  88  67  89 /  05  10  05  10  20
WAYNESBORO  80  58  88  67  87 /  05  05  05  10  40
CAMDEN      79  58  88  66  87 /  00  10  05  10  20
CRESTVIEW   85  64  89  67  90 /  05  10  05  10  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 221144 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
644 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.MARINE UPDATE...SLIGHT INCREASE IN WIND FORECAST FOR SMALL CRAFT
EXERCISE CAUTION ESPECIALLY IN BAYS. WIND AT LOCAL BUOYS INDICATES
IT WAS A BIT STRONGER THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST. NO OTHER CHANGES.
77/BD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 445 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

SHORT TERM [TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT]...LITTLE CHANCE OF RAIN
INLAND. WEAK ZONAL FLOW AT 500 MB WILL HOST SMALL PERTURBATIONS ALONG
A FRONT WHICH HAS ALREADY PASSED US TO THE SOUTHEAST. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM ALONG IT GENERALLY OFFSHORE
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. CAPE RAPIDLY DROPS BELOW 400 J/KG NORTH OF 60
MILES OFFSHORE. PRECIPITABLE WATER DROPS BELOW AN INCH NORTH OF A
LINE FROM HINTON TO LUVERNE ALABAMA....AND LI IS +3 OFFSHORE
INCREASING TO +12 GOING INLAND WITHIN 50 MILES OF THE COAST. ON TOP
OF THAT...POST FRONTAL LAYER SUBSIDENCE AND WEAK DYNAMICS...AS WELL
AS LOW DEWPOINTS WILL KEEP CONVECTION NIL TODAY AND TONIGHT OVER
LAND.

HIGHS TODAY IN THE UPPER 70S IN THE FAR NORTHERN ZONES AND LOW 80S
FURTHER TOWARD THE COAST. LOWS IN THE FAR NORTHERN ZONES IN THE
UPPER 50S AND LOW 70S FURTHER TOWARD THE COAST. /77

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS LOW

UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM OVER THE FOUR CORNERS OF THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST SATURDAY IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHEAST UP ACROSS
THE ROCKIES SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS CAUSES DOWNSTREAM GULF MID LEVEL
RIDGE TO UNDERGO AMPLIFICATION DURING THE DAY. WITH THE
STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL RIDGE ALOFT...RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO BE MINIMAL
SATURDAY. WELL DEFINED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS TO BE ALIGNED FROM
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TO OFF INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. RESULTANT
WIND FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHEASTERLY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY
INTO THE UPPER HALF OF THE 80S. THERE IS A MODERATE
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE GULF BEACHES OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST
FLORIDA FOR SATURDAY DUE TO AN INCREASE IN ONSHORE FLOW. FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT...BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TRENDS HIGHER THROUGH THE
NIGHT AS A LOW LEVEL 1000-850 MB THETA-E RIDGE AXIS BECOMES ORIENTED
FROM THE EASTERN GULF...NORTHWESTWARD INTO OKLAHOMA. THE BETTER
MOISTURE BISECTS THE FORECAST AREA IN HALF WITH THE HIGHER END ALONG
AND WEST OF A LINE FROM WAYNESBORO MISSISSIPPI TO DESTIN
FLORIDA...AND THE DRIER AIR EAST OF THIS LINE. WEAK LOW LAYER LIFT
WITHIN THE BETTER MOISTURE MAY RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE
NIGHT SHOWERS/STORMS FROM PORTIONS OF INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
TO THE GULF COAST AND POINTS OFFSHORE. A MUGGY NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH
LOWS IN THE MID 60S INTERIOR TO THE LOWER HALF OF THE 70S COAST. /10

LONG TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY]...THE GLOBAL WEATHER MODELS
SHOW AN EASTWARD PROGRESSION IN THE GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FIELDS ALOFT
WITH A WELL DEFINED...AMPLIFIED MID LEVEL RIDGE SETTING UP FROM THE
MID ATLANTIC...SOUTHWARD TO OVER FLORIDA TO BEGIN THE OUTLOOK. THE
LOCAL AREA SEES A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THE
RIDGE TO THE EAST AND TROF AXIS OVER THE PLAINS FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. A SERIES OF MID LEVEL IMPULSES/ASCENT WITHIN THE HIGH LEVEL
SOUTHWEST FLOW OPERATES ON DEEPENING LAYER MOISTURE AS TROF AXIS TO
THE WEST TAPS GULF MOISTURE AND PULLS IT NORTHWARD OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE MEMORIAL DAY HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. WITH LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC SCALE WEATHER
PATTERN TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS REMAIN
IN THE FORECAST. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG AT TIMES
PRODUCING BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS. ALTHOUGH THE RISK OF WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS IS LOW
DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE...AN ISOLATED OCCURRENCE CANNOT BE RULED OUT
MAINLY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS WHEN BETTER INSTABILITY IS REALIZED.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST...A BREEZY SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY FLOW
IS POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG THE COAST EACH DAY. FORECASTERS ARE
EVALUATING THE PROSPECT OF A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS SUNDAY...WHICH
MAY CONTINUE INTO MEMORIAL DAY.

DAYTIME HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 85 TO 90 OVER THE INTERIOR.
OVER THE BEACHES...CLOSER PROXIMITY TO GULF KEEPS HIGHS IN THE LOWER
HALF OF THE 80S. WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY ESTABLISHED FROM
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO THE EASTERN US...OVERNIGHT LOWS MODERATE
BACK INTO THE LOWER/MID 70S FOR NEXT WEEK. /10

AVIATION...
22.12Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. WIND LIGHT TO MODERATE AROUND 5 KNOTS FROM THE NORTHEAST
VEERING TO EAST SATURDAY AND SOUTHEAST SUNDAY. /77

MARINE...A HIGH WILL DOMINATE THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF BEHIND A COLD
FRONT PUSHING OUT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF TODAY. THE FRONT WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG IT WELL OFFSHORE AND
MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND IT. THE WIND WILL QUICKLY
DECREASE AND VEER NORTHEAST THEN BECOME SOUTHEAST BY SATURDAY. AS
THE HIGH MOVES FURTHER EAST THIS WEEKEND...THE WIND WILL STRENGTHEN
TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS OVER THE GULF AND SEAS WILL INCREASE...APPROACHING
6 FEET OFFSHORE. THE SWAN CAME OUT SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE GWW WAVE
MODEL BUT WE KEPT THE OUTPUT BECAUSE IT AGREED MORE CLOSELY WITH THE
BRETSCHNEIDER. /77

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      83  62  87  71  87 /  10  05  10  20  40
PENSACOLA   83  66  86  73  86 /  10  10  10  20  40
DESTIN      84  68  86  74  84 /  10  10  05  20  30
EVERGREEN   80  59  88  67  89 /  05  10  05  10  20
WAYNESBORO  80  58  88  67  87 /  05  05  05  10  40
CAMDEN      79  58  88  66  87 /  00  10  05  10  20
CRESTVIEW   85  64  89  67  90 /  05  10  05  10  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMOB 220945
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
445 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM [TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT]...LITTLE CHANCE OF RAIN
INLAND. WEAK ZONAL FLOW AT 500 MB WILL HOST SMALL PERTURBATIONS ALONG
A FRONT WHICH HAS ALREADY PASSED US TO THE SOUTHEAST. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM ALONG IT GENERALLY OFFSHORE
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. CAPE RAPIDLY DROPS BELOW 400 J/KG NORTH OF 60
MILES OFFSHORE. PRECIPITABLE WATER DROPS BELOW AN INCH NORTH OF A
LINE FROM HINTON TO LUVERNE ALABAMA....AND LI IS +3 OFFSHORE
INCREASING TO +12 GOING INLAND WITHIN 50 MILES OF THE COAST. ON TOP
OF THAT...POST FRONTAL LAYER SUBSIDENCE AND WEAK DYNAMICS...AS WELL
AS LOW DEWPOINTS WILL KEEP CONVECTION NIL TODAY AND TONIGHT OVER
LAND.

HIGHS TODAY IN THE UPPER 70S IN THE FAR NORTHERN ZONES AND LOW 80S
FURTHER TOWARD THE COAST. LOWS IN THE FAR NORTHERN ZONES IN THE
UPPER 50S AND LOW 70S FURTHER TOWARD THE COAST. /77

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS LOW

UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM OVER THE FOUR CORNERS OF THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST SATURDAY IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHEAST UP ACROSS
THE ROCKIES SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS CAUSES DOWNSTREAM GULF MID LEVEL
RIDGE TO UNDERGO AMPLIFICATION DURING THE DAY. WITH THE
STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL RIDGE ALOFT...RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO BE MINIMAL
SATURDAY. WELL DEFINED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS TO BE ALIGNED FROM
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TO OFF INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. RESULTANT
WIND FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHEASTERLY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY
INTO THE UPPER HALF OF THE 80S. THERE IS A MODERATE
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE GULF BEACHES OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST
FLORIDA FOR SATURDAY DUE TO AN INCREASE IN ONSHORE FLOW. FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT...BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TRENDS HIGHER THROUGH THE
NIGHT AS A LOW LEVEL 1000-850 MB THETA-E RIDGE AXIS BECOMES ORIENTED
FROM THE EASTERN GULF...NORTHWESTWARD INTO OKLAHOMA. THE BETTER
MOISTURE BISECTS THE FORECAST AREA IN HALF WITH THE HIGHER END ALONG
AND WEST OF A LINE FROM WAYNESBORO MISSISSIPPI TO DESTIN
FLORIDA...AND THE DRIER AIR EAST OF THIS LINE. WEAK LOW LAYER LIFT
WITHIN THE BETTER MOISTURE MAY RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE
NIGHT SHOWERS/STORMS FROM PORTIONS OF INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
TO THE GULF COAST AND POINTS OFFSHORE. A MUGGY NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH
LOWS IN THE MID 60S INTERIOR TO THE LOWER HALF OF THE 70S COAST. /10

.LONG TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY]...THE GLOBAL WEATHER MODELS
SHOW AN EASTWARD PROGRESSION IN THE GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FIELDS ALOFT
WITH A WELL DEFINED...AMPLIFIED MID LEVEL RIDGE SETTING UP FROM THE
MID ATLANTIC...SOUTHWARD TO OVER FLORIDA TO BEGIN THE OUTLOOK. THE
LOCAL AREA SEES A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THE
RIDGE TO THE EAST AND TROF AXIS OVER THE PLAINS FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. A SERIES OF MID LEVEL IMPULSES/ASCENT WITHIN THE HIGH LEVEL
SOUTHWEST FLOW OPERATES ON DEEPENING LAYER MOISTURE AS TROF AXIS TO
THE WEST TAPS GULF MOISTURE AND PULLS IT NORTHWARD OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE MEMORIAL DAY HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. WITH LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC SCALE WEATHER
PATTERN TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS REMAIN
IN THE FORECAST. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG AT TIMES
PRODUCING BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS. ALTHOUGH THE RISK OF WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS IS LOW
DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE...AN ISOLATED OCCURRENCE CANNOT BE RULED OUT
MAINLY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS WHEN BETTER INSTABILITY IS REALIZED.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST...A BREEZY SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY FLOW
IS POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG THE COAST EACH DAY. FORECASTERS ARE
EVALUATING THE PROSPECT OF A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS SUNDAY...WHICH
MAY CONTINUE INTO MEMORIAL DAY.

DAYTIME HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 85 TO 90 OVER THE INTERIOR.
OVER THE BEACHES...CLOSER PROXIMITY TO GULF KEEPS HIGHS IN THE LOWER
HALF OF THE 80S. WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY ESTABLISHED FROM
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO THE EASTERN US...OVERNIGHT LOWS MODERATE
BACK INTO THE LOWER/MID 70S FOR NEXT WEEK. /10

&&

.AVIATION...
22.12Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. WIND LIGHT TO MODERATE AROUND 5 KNOTS FROM THE NORTHEAST
VEERING TO EAST SATURDAY AND SOUTHEAST SUNDAY. /77

&&

.MARINE...A HIGH WILL DOMINATE THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF BEHIND A COLD
FRONT PUSHING OUT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF TODAY. THE FRONT WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG IT WELL OFFSHORE AND
MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND IT. THE WIND WILL QUICKLY
DECREASE AND VEER NORTHEAST THEN BECOME SOUTHEAST BY SATURDAY. AS
THE HIGH MOVES FURTHER EAST THIS WEEKEND...THE WIND WILL STRENGTHEN
TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS OVER THE GULF AND SEAS WILL INCREASE...APPROACHING
6 FEET OFFSHORE. THE SWAN CAME OUT SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE GWW WAVE
MODEL BUT WE KEPT THE OUTPUT BECAUSE IT AGREED MORE CLOSELY WITH THE
BRETSCHNEIDER. /77

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      83  62  87  71  87 /  10  05  10  20  40
PENSACOLA   83  66  86  73  86 /  10  10  10  20  40
DESTIN      84  68  86  74  84 /  10  10  05  20  30
EVERGREEN   80  59  88  67  89 /  05  10  05  10  20
WAYNESBORO  80  58  88  67  87 /  05  05  05  10  40
CAMDEN      79  58  88  66  87 /  00  10  05  10  20
CRESTVIEW   85  64  89  67  90 /  05  10  05  10  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 220945
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
445 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM [TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT]...LITTLE CHANCE OF RAIN
INLAND. WEAK ZONAL FLOW AT 500 MB WILL HOST SMALL PERTURBATIONS ALONG
A FRONT WHICH HAS ALREADY PASSED US TO THE SOUTHEAST. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM ALONG IT GENERALLY OFFSHORE
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. CAPE RAPIDLY DROPS BELOW 400 J/KG NORTH OF 60
MILES OFFSHORE. PRECIPITABLE WATER DROPS BELOW AN INCH NORTH OF A
LINE FROM HINTON TO LUVERNE ALABAMA....AND LI IS +3 OFFSHORE
INCREASING TO +12 GOING INLAND WITHIN 50 MILES OF THE COAST. ON TOP
OF THAT...POST FRONTAL LAYER SUBSIDENCE AND WEAK DYNAMICS...AS WELL
AS LOW DEWPOINTS WILL KEEP CONVECTION NIL TODAY AND TONIGHT OVER
LAND.

HIGHS TODAY IN THE UPPER 70S IN THE FAR NORTHERN ZONES AND LOW 80S
FURTHER TOWARD THE COAST. LOWS IN THE FAR NORTHERN ZONES IN THE
UPPER 50S AND LOW 70S FURTHER TOWARD THE COAST. /77

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS LOW

UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM OVER THE FOUR CORNERS OF THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST SATURDAY IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHEAST UP ACROSS
THE ROCKIES SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS CAUSES DOWNSTREAM GULF MID LEVEL
RIDGE TO UNDERGO AMPLIFICATION DURING THE DAY. WITH THE
STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL RIDGE ALOFT...RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO BE MINIMAL
SATURDAY. WELL DEFINED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS TO BE ALIGNED FROM
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TO OFF INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. RESULTANT
WIND FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHEASTERLY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY
INTO THE UPPER HALF OF THE 80S. THERE IS A MODERATE
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE GULF BEACHES OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST
FLORIDA FOR SATURDAY DUE TO AN INCREASE IN ONSHORE FLOW. FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT...BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TRENDS HIGHER THROUGH THE
NIGHT AS A LOW LEVEL 1000-850 MB THETA-E RIDGE AXIS BECOMES ORIENTED
FROM THE EASTERN GULF...NORTHWESTWARD INTO OKLAHOMA. THE BETTER
MOISTURE BISECTS THE FORECAST AREA IN HALF WITH THE HIGHER END ALONG
AND WEST OF A LINE FROM WAYNESBORO MISSISSIPPI TO DESTIN
FLORIDA...AND THE DRIER AIR EAST OF THIS LINE. WEAK LOW LAYER LIFT
WITHIN THE BETTER MOISTURE MAY RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE
NIGHT SHOWERS/STORMS FROM PORTIONS OF INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
TO THE GULF COAST AND POINTS OFFSHORE. A MUGGY NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH
LOWS IN THE MID 60S INTERIOR TO THE LOWER HALF OF THE 70S COAST. /10

.LONG TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY]...THE GLOBAL WEATHER MODELS
SHOW AN EASTWARD PROGRESSION IN THE GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FIELDS ALOFT
WITH A WELL DEFINED...AMPLIFIED MID LEVEL RIDGE SETTING UP FROM THE
MID ATLANTIC...SOUTHWARD TO OVER FLORIDA TO BEGIN THE OUTLOOK. THE
LOCAL AREA SEES A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THE
RIDGE TO THE EAST AND TROF AXIS OVER THE PLAINS FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. A SERIES OF MID LEVEL IMPULSES/ASCENT WITHIN THE HIGH LEVEL
SOUTHWEST FLOW OPERATES ON DEEPENING LAYER MOISTURE AS TROF AXIS TO
THE WEST TAPS GULF MOISTURE AND PULLS IT NORTHWARD OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE MEMORIAL DAY HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. WITH LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC SCALE WEATHER
PATTERN TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS REMAIN
IN THE FORECAST. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG AT TIMES
PRODUCING BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS. ALTHOUGH THE RISK OF WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS IS LOW
DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE...AN ISOLATED OCCURRENCE CANNOT BE RULED OUT
MAINLY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS WHEN BETTER INSTABILITY IS REALIZED.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST...A BREEZY SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY FLOW
IS POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG THE COAST EACH DAY. FORECASTERS ARE
EVALUATING THE PROSPECT OF A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS SUNDAY...WHICH
MAY CONTINUE INTO MEMORIAL DAY.

DAYTIME HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 85 TO 90 OVER THE INTERIOR.
OVER THE BEACHES...CLOSER PROXIMITY TO GULF KEEPS HIGHS IN THE LOWER
HALF OF THE 80S. WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY ESTABLISHED FROM
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO THE EASTERN US...OVERNIGHT LOWS MODERATE
BACK INTO THE LOWER/MID 70S FOR NEXT WEEK. /10

&&

.AVIATION...
22.12Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. WIND LIGHT TO MODERATE AROUND 5 KNOTS FROM THE NORTHEAST
VEERING TO EAST SATURDAY AND SOUTHEAST SUNDAY. /77

&&

.MARINE...A HIGH WILL DOMINATE THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF BEHIND A COLD
FRONT PUSHING OUT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF TODAY. THE FRONT WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG IT WELL OFFSHORE AND
MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND IT. THE WIND WILL QUICKLY
DECREASE AND VEER NORTHEAST THEN BECOME SOUTHEAST BY SATURDAY. AS
THE HIGH MOVES FURTHER EAST THIS WEEKEND...THE WIND WILL STRENGTHEN
TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS OVER THE GULF AND SEAS WILL INCREASE...APPROACHING
6 FEET OFFSHORE. THE SWAN CAME OUT SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE GWW WAVE
MODEL BUT WE KEPT THE OUTPUT BECAUSE IT AGREED MORE CLOSELY WITH THE
BRETSCHNEIDER. /77

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      83  62  87  71  87 /  10  05  10  20  40
PENSACOLA   83  66  86  73  86 /  10  10  10  20  40
DESTIN      84  68  86  74  84 /  10  10  05  20  30
EVERGREEN   80  59  88  67  89 /  05  10  05  10  20
WAYNESBORO  80  58  88  67  87 /  05  05  05  10  40
CAMDEN      79  58  88  66  87 /  00  10  05  10  20
CRESTVIEW   85  64  89  67  90 /  05  10  05  10  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMOB 220448 AAC
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1148 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.AVIATION...
22.06Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. /13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 940 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015/

UPDATE...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED WELL OFFSHORE THIS EVENING WITH
PATCHY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUING OVER EXTREME SOUTHWEST ALABAMA
AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA. THESE LIGHT SHOWERS ARE RAPIDLY DECREASING IN
COVERAGE AND HAVE DROPPED RAIN CHANCES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
EVENING. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT. /13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015/

AVIATION...
22.00Z ISSUANCE...MVFR CIGS IN AND AROUND SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS A DRIER AIRMASS MOVED INTO THE AREA. /13

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY]...THE NEXT OF A CONTINUED
SERIES OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE LOWER
MS RIVER AND CENTRAL GULF STATES FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON
COMBINED WITH MODERATE LEVELS OF INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE IN THE
LOWER LEVELS ALONG WITH DRYER AIR ABOVE 700 MB WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER
ROUND OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF INLAND
SOUTHEAST MS STRETCHING EASTWARD OVER COASTAL AL AND SOME OTHER
INLAND AREAS IN SOUTHWEST ALABAMA. AS MENTIONED BEFORE THE BEST
COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE APPROXIMATELY 50 MILES ON EITHER SIDE OF A LINE
STRETCHING FROM MOBILE AL TO WIGGINS MS INCLUDING LOWER PARTS OF
BALDWIN CO IN AL. MOST OF THIS REASONING IS FROM A BLEND OF THE
LATEST HRRR AND PHYSICAL RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF THROUGH THIS
EVENING. AT THE SFC A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH TO THE COAST BY
LATE THIS EVENING THEN MOVES WELL OFFSHORE BY 12Z FRI. MOST OF THE
HEAVIER PRECIP WILL MOVE SOUTH OVER THE GULF BY LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY FRI MORNING WITH MAYBE A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT THROUGH ABOUT MID MORNING FRI. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
WEAKER LIFT ALOFT COMBINED WITH DRIER AIR IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS
WILL HELP KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN THE 20 PERCENT RANGE OCCURRING MOSTLY
OVER LOWER PARTS OF INLAND SOUTHEAST MS AND LOWER MOBILE CO IN AL.
WITH LIMITED FORCING AND LOWER INSTABILITY VALUES IN THESE AREAS THE
THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE LOWER COMPARED
TO TODAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR ALL
AREAS IN THE CWFA TONIGHT WITH SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE FOR MOST
AREAS NEAR SUNRISE. AS FOR TEMPS WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE 12Z MAV
GUIDANCE THROUGH FRIDAY AND ADJUST A DEGREE OR TWO MAINLY FOR
CONSISTENCY WITH SURROUNDING WFOS. 32/EE

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WHILE ZONAL FLOW TRANSITIONS
SOUTHWEST OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION IN ADVANCE OF A DEEP
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES/FOUR CORNERS REGION.
THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ORIENTED OVER THE FAR NORTHERN
GULF FRIDAY NIGHT...BEFORE BECOMING DIFFUSE SATURDAY MORNING AS
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW BEGINS TO RETURN COURTESY OF THE SURFACE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE EAST COAST AND WESTERN
ATLANTIC. SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOW A SLIGHTLY DRIER AND MORE
SUBSIDENT AIRMASS SETTLING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION. WE WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST INTACT...THOUGH
WILL KEEP POPS AROUND 10 PERCENT SATURDAY AS AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
STORM CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT NEAR THE SEABREEZE. A DRIER
SURFACE AIRMASS OVER THE REGION WILL SUPPORT COOLER TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S OVER INTERIOR AREAS...AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S NEAR THE COAST.
HIGHS SATURDAY SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE
REGION. /21

LONG TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY]...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND THE
ADJACENT WESTERN ATLANTIC SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST REGION SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY TO THE WEST OF THE RIDGE AXIS AND
ALSO UPSTREAM FROM A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS AND THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS. DEEP MOISTURE IS EXPECTED
TO RETURN TO THE FORECAST AREA WITHIN THE INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISING BACK TO THE 1.7 TO
1.9 INCH RANGE SUNDAY-TUESDAY. MID LEVEL TROUGH MAY LIFT TOWARD THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK...AND
MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS KEEP PLENTIFUL MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WE THEREFORE EXPECT AT LEAST
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA EACH DAY THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. A FEW STORMS
COULD BE STRONG AT TIMES GIVEN AMPLE AFTERNOON INSTABILITY WITH
FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS THAT DEVELOP. LITTLE CHANGE IN DAY-TO-DAY
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH LOWS
RANGING MOSTLY FROM THE UPPER 60S INLAND TO THE LOWER TO MID 70S NEAR
THE COAST. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. /21

MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER NEAR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL AFFECT THE INSHORE WATERS AND GULF WATERS OUT TO 20 NM THROUGH
THIS EVENING THEN MOVE FURTHER EAST AND SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
FRI MORNING. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME REINFORCED LATE
TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT THAT MOVES ACROSS THE MARINE AREA LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST TO
THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND WESTERN ATLANTIC STRETCHING WEST OVER THE
NORTH CENTRAL GULF...LEADING TO A MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY FLOW
LATE SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      62  79  64  87  71 /  20  20  05  10  10
PENSACOLA   66  82  68  86  73 /  20  10  05  10  20
DESTIN      68  83  69  87  74 /  20  05  05  10  20
EVERGREEN   59  82  59  89  67 /  10  10  05  10  10
WAYNESBORO  57  80  60  88  67 /  10  10  05  10  10
CAMDEN      56  80  58  88  66 /  10  05  05  05  05
CRESTVIEW   63  83  59  89  67 /  20  05  05  10  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 220240 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
940 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.UPDATE...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED WELL OFFSHORE THIS EVENING WITH
PATCHY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUING OVER EXTREME SOUTHWEST ALABAMA
AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA. THESE LIGHT SHOWERS ARE RAPIDLY DECREASING IN
COVERAGE AND HAVE DROPPED RAIN CHANCES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
EVENING. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT. /13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015/

AVIATION...
22.00Z ISSUANCE...MVFR CIGS IN AND AROUND SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS A DRIER AIRMASS MOVED INTO THE AREA. /13

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY]...THE NEXT OF A CONTINUED
SERIES OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE LOWER
MS RIVER AND CENTRAL GULF STATES FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON
COMBINED WITH MODERATE LEVELS OF INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE IN THE
LOWER LEVELS ALONG WITH DRYER AIR ABOVE 700 MB WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER
ROUND OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF INLAND
SOUTHEAST MS STRETCHING EASTWARD OVER COASTAL AL AND SOME OTHER
INLAND AREAS IN SOUTHWEST ALABAMA. AS MENTIONED BEFORE THE BEST
COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE APPROXIMATELY 50 MILES ON EITHER SIDE OF A LINE
STRETCHING FROM MOBILE AL TO WIGGINS MS INCLUDING LOWER PARTS OF
BALDWIN CO IN AL. MOST OF THIS REASONING IS FROM A BLEND OF THE
LATEST HRRR AND PHYSICAL RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF THROUGH THIS
EVENING. AT THE SFC A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH TO THE COAST BY
LATE THIS EVENING THEN MOVES WELL OFFSHORE BY 12Z FRI. MOST OF THE
HEAVIER PRECIP WILL MOVE SOUTH OVER THE GULF BY LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY FRI MORNING WITH MAYBE A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT THROUGH ABOUT MID MORNING FRI. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
WEAKER LIFT ALOFT COMBINED WITH DRIER AIR IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS
WILL HELP KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN THE 20 PERCENT RANGE OCCURRING MOSTLY
OVER LOWER PARTS OF INLAND SOUTHEAST MS AND LOWER MOBILE CO IN AL.
WITH LIMITED FORCING AND LOWER INSTABILITY VALUES IN THESE AREAS THE
THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE LOWER COMPARED
TO TODAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR ALL
AREAS IN THE CWFA TONIGHT WITH SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE FOR MOST
AREAS NEAR SUNRISE. AS FOR TEMPS WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE 12Z MAV
GUIDANCE THROUGH FRIDAY AND ADJUST A DEGREE OR TWO MAINLY FOR
CONSISTENCY WITH SURROUNDING WFOS. 32/EE

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WHILE ZONAL FLOW TRANSITIONS
SOUTHWEST OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION IN ADVANCE OF A DEEP
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES/FOUR CORNERS REGION.
THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ORIENTED OVER THE FAR NORTHERN
GULF FRIDAY NIGHT...BEFORE BECOMING DIFFUSE SATURDAY MORNING AS
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW BEGINS TO RETURN COURTESY OF THE SURFACE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE EAST COAST AND WESTERN
ATLANTIC. SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOW A SLIGHTLY DRIER AND MORE
SUBSIDENT AIRMASS SETTLING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION. WE WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST INTACT...THOUGH
WILL KEEP POPS AROUND 10 PERCENT SATURDAY AS AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
STORM CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT NEAR THE SEABREEZE. A DRIER
SURFACE AIRMASS OVER THE REGION WILL SUPPORT COOLER TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S OVER INTERIOR AREAS...AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S NEAR THE COAST.
HIGHS SATURDAY SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE
REGION. /21

LONG TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY]...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND THE
ADJACENT WESTERN ATLANTIC SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST REGION SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY TO THE WEST OF THE RIDGE AXIS AND
ALSO UPSTREAM FROM A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS AND THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS. DEEP MOISTURE IS EXPECTED
TO RETURN TO THE FORECAST AREA WITHIN THE INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISING BACK TO THE 1.7 TO
1.9 INCH RANGE SUNDAY-TUESDAY. MID LEVEL TROUGH MAY LIFT TOWARD THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK...AND
MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS KEEP PLENTIFUL MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WE THEREFORE EXPECT AT LEAST
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA EACH DAY THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. A FEW STORMS
COULD BE STRONG AT TIMES GIVEN AMPLE AFTERNOON INSTABILITY WITH
FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS THAT DEVELOP. LITTLE CHANGE IN DAY-TO-DAY
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH LOWS
RANGING MOSTLY FROM THE UPPER 60S INLAND TO THE LOWER TO MID 70S NEAR
THE COAST. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. /21

MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER NEAR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL AFFECT THE INSHORE WATERS AND GULF WATERS OUT TO 20 NM THROUGH
THIS EVENING THEN MOVE FURTHER EAST AND SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
FRI MORNING. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME REINFORCED LATE
TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT THAT MOVES ACROSS THE MARINE AREA LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST TO
THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND WESTERN ATLANTIC STRETCHING WEST OVER THE
NORTH CENTRAL GULF...LEADING TO A MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY FLOW
LATE SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      62  79  64  87  71 /  60  20  05  10  10
PENSACOLA   66  82  68  86  73 /  40  10  05  10  20
DESTIN      68  83  69  87  74 /  40  05  05  10  20
EVERGREEN   59  82  59  89  67 /  30  10  05  10  10
WAYNESBORO  57  80  60  88  67 /  30  10  05  10  10
CAMDEN      56  80  58  88  66 /  20  05  05  05  05
CRESTVIEW   63  83  59  89  67 /  50  05  05  10  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMOB 220240 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
940 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.UPDATE...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED WELL OFFSHORE THIS EVENING WITH
PATCHY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUING OVER EXTREME SOUTHWEST ALABAMA
AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA. THESE LIGHT SHOWERS ARE RAPIDLY DECREASING IN
COVERAGE AND HAVE DROPPED RAIN CHANCES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
EVENING. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT. /13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015/

AVIATION...
22.00Z ISSUANCE...MVFR CIGS IN AND AROUND SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS A DRIER AIRMASS MOVED INTO THE AREA. /13

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY]...THE NEXT OF A CONTINUED
SERIES OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE LOWER
MS RIVER AND CENTRAL GULF STATES FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON
COMBINED WITH MODERATE LEVELS OF INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE IN THE
LOWER LEVELS ALONG WITH DRYER AIR ABOVE 700 MB WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER
ROUND OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF INLAND
SOUTHEAST MS STRETCHING EASTWARD OVER COASTAL AL AND SOME OTHER
INLAND AREAS IN SOUTHWEST ALABAMA. AS MENTIONED BEFORE THE BEST
COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE APPROXIMATELY 50 MILES ON EITHER SIDE OF A LINE
STRETCHING FROM MOBILE AL TO WIGGINS MS INCLUDING LOWER PARTS OF
BALDWIN CO IN AL. MOST OF THIS REASONING IS FROM A BLEND OF THE
LATEST HRRR AND PHYSICAL RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF THROUGH THIS
EVENING. AT THE SFC A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH TO THE COAST BY
LATE THIS EVENING THEN MOVES WELL OFFSHORE BY 12Z FRI. MOST OF THE
HEAVIER PRECIP WILL MOVE SOUTH OVER THE GULF BY LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY FRI MORNING WITH MAYBE A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT THROUGH ABOUT MID MORNING FRI. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
WEAKER LIFT ALOFT COMBINED WITH DRIER AIR IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS
WILL HELP KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN THE 20 PERCENT RANGE OCCURRING MOSTLY
OVER LOWER PARTS OF INLAND SOUTHEAST MS AND LOWER MOBILE CO IN AL.
WITH LIMITED FORCING AND LOWER INSTABILITY VALUES IN THESE AREAS THE
THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE LOWER COMPARED
TO TODAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR ALL
AREAS IN THE CWFA TONIGHT WITH SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE FOR MOST
AREAS NEAR SUNRISE. AS FOR TEMPS WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE 12Z MAV
GUIDANCE THROUGH FRIDAY AND ADJUST A DEGREE OR TWO MAINLY FOR
CONSISTENCY WITH SURROUNDING WFOS. 32/EE

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WHILE ZONAL FLOW TRANSITIONS
SOUTHWEST OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION IN ADVANCE OF A DEEP
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES/FOUR CORNERS REGION.
THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ORIENTED OVER THE FAR NORTHERN
GULF FRIDAY NIGHT...BEFORE BECOMING DIFFUSE SATURDAY MORNING AS
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW BEGINS TO RETURN COURTESY OF THE SURFACE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE EAST COAST AND WESTERN
ATLANTIC. SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOW A SLIGHTLY DRIER AND MORE
SUBSIDENT AIRMASS SETTLING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION. WE WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST INTACT...THOUGH
WILL KEEP POPS AROUND 10 PERCENT SATURDAY AS AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
STORM CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT NEAR THE SEABREEZE. A DRIER
SURFACE AIRMASS OVER THE REGION WILL SUPPORT COOLER TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S OVER INTERIOR AREAS...AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S NEAR THE COAST.
HIGHS SATURDAY SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE
REGION. /21

LONG TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY]...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND THE
ADJACENT WESTERN ATLANTIC SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST REGION SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY TO THE WEST OF THE RIDGE AXIS AND
ALSO UPSTREAM FROM A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS AND THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS. DEEP MOISTURE IS EXPECTED
TO RETURN TO THE FORECAST AREA WITHIN THE INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISING BACK TO THE 1.7 TO
1.9 INCH RANGE SUNDAY-TUESDAY. MID LEVEL TROUGH MAY LIFT TOWARD THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK...AND
MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS KEEP PLENTIFUL MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WE THEREFORE EXPECT AT LEAST
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA EACH DAY THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. A FEW STORMS
COULD BE STRONG AT TIMES GIVEN AMPLE AFTERNOON INSTABILITY WITH
FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS THAT DEVELOP. LITTLE CHANGE IN DAY-TO-DAY
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH LOWS
RANGING MOSTLY FROM THE UPPER 60S INLAND TO THE LOWER TO MID 70S NEAR
THE COAST. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. /21

MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER NEAR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL AFFECT THE INSHORE WATERS AND GULF WATERS OUT TO 20 NM THROUGH
THIS EVENING THEN MOVE FURTHER EAST AND SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
FRI MORNING. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME REINFORCED LATE
TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT THAT MOVES ACROSS THE MARINE AREA LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST TO
THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND WESTERN ATLANTIC STRETCHING WEST OVER THE
NORTH CENTRAL GULF...LEADING TO A MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY FLOW
LATE SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      62  79  64  87  71 /  60  20  05  10  10
PENSACOLA   66  82  68  86  73 /  40  10  05  10  20
DESTIN      68  83  69  87  74 /  40  05  05  10  20
EVERGREEN   59  82  59  89  67 /  30  10  05  10  10
WAYNESBORO  57  80  60  88  67 /  30  10  05  10  10
CAMDEN      56  80  58  88  66 /  20  05  05  05  05
CRESTVIEW   63  83  59  89  67 /  50  05  05  10  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 212340 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...AVIATION UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
640 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.AVIATION...
22.00Z ISSUANCE...MVFR CIGS IN AND AROUND SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS A DRIER AIRMASS MOVED INTO THE AREA. /13

&&

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY]...THE NEXT OF A CONTINUED
SERIES OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE LOWER
MS RIVER AND CENTRAL GULF STATES FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON
COMBINED WITH MODERATE LEVELS OF INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE IN THE
LOWER LEVELS ALONG WITH DRYER AIR ABOVE 700 MB WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER
ROUND OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF INLAND
SOUTHEAST MS STRETCHING EASTWARD OVER COASTAL AL AND SOME OTHER
INLAND AREAS IN SOUTHWEST ALABAMA. AS MENTIONED BEFORE THE BEST
COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE APPROXIMATELY 50 MILES ON EITHER SIDE OF A LINE
STRETCHING FROM MOBILE AL TO WIGGINS MS INCLUDING LOWER PARTS OF
BALDWIN CO IN AL. MOST OF THIS REASONING IS FROM A BLEND OF THE
LATEST HRRR AND PHYSICAL RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF THROUGH THIS
EVENING. AT THE SFC A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH TO THE COAST BY
LATE THIS EVENING THEN MOVES WELL OFFSHORE BY 12Z FRI. MOST OF THE
HEAVIER PRECIP WILL MOVE SOUTH OVER THE GULF BY LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY FRI MORNING WITH MAYBE A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT THROUGH ABOUT MID MORNING FRI. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
WEAKER LIFT ALOFT COMBINED WITH DRIER AIR IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS
WILL HELP KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN THE 20 PERCENT RANGE OCCURRING MOSTLY
OVER LOWER PARTS OF INLAND SOUTHEAST MS AND LOWER MOBILE CO IN AL.
WITH LIMITED FORCING AND LOWER INSTABILITY VALUES IN THESE AREAS THE
THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE LOWER COMPARED
TO TODAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR ALL
AREAS IN THE CWFA TONIGHT WITH SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE FOR MOST
AREAS NEAR SUNRISE. AS FOR TEMPS WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE 12Z MAV
GUIDANCE THROUGH FRIDAY AND ADJUST A DEGREE OR TWO MAINLY FOR
CONSISTENCY WITH SURROUNDING WFOS. 32/EE

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WHILE ZONAL FLOW TRANSITIONS
SOUTHWEST OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION IN ADVANCE OF A DEEP
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES/FOUR CORNERS REGION.
THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ORIENTED OVER THE FAR NORTHERN
GULF FRIDAY NIGHT...BEFORE BECOMING DIFFUSE SATURDAY MORNING AS
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW BEGINS TO RETURN COURTESY OF THE SURFACE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE EAST COAST AND WESTERN
ATLANTIC. SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOW A SLIGHTLY DRIER AND MORE
SUBSIDENT AIRMASS SETTLING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION. WE WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST INTACT...THOUGH
WILL KEEP POPS AROUND 10 PERCENT SATURDAY AS AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
STORM CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT NEAR THE SEABREEZE. A DRIER
SURFACE AIRMASS OVER THE REGION WILL SUPPORT COOLER TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S OVER INTERIOR AREAS...AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S NEAR THE COAST.
HIGHS SATURDAY SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE
REGION. /21

.LONG TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY]...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND THE
ADJACENT WESTERN ATLANTIC SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST REGION SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY TO THE WEST OF THE RIDGE AXIS AND
ALSO UPSTREAM FROM A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS AND THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS. DEEP MOISTURE IS EXPECTED
TO RETURN TO THE FORECAST AREA WITHIN THE INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISING BACK TO THE 1.7 TO
1.9 INCH RANGE SUNDAY-TUESDAY. MID LEVEL TROUGH MAY LIFT TOWARD THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK...AND
MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS KEEP PLENTIFUL MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WE THEREFORE EXPECT AT LEAST
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA EACH DAY THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. A FEW STORMS
COULD BE STRONG AT TIMES GIVEN AMPLE AFTERNOON INSTABILITY WITH
FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS THAT DEVELOP. LITTLE CHANGE IN DAY-TO-DAY
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH LOWS
RANGING MOSTLY FROM THE UPPER 60S INLAND TO THE LOWER TO MID 70S NEAR
THE COAST. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. /21

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER NEAR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL AFFECT THE INSHORE WATERS AND GULF WATERS OUT TO 20 NM THROUGH
THIS EVENING THEN MOVE FURTHER EAST AND SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
FRI MORNING. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME REINFORCED LATE
TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT THAT MOVES ACROSS THE MARINE AREA LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST TO
THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND WESTERN ATLANTIC STRETCHING WEST OVER THE
NORTH CENTRAL GULF...LEADING TO A MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY FLOW
LATE SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      62  79  64  87  71 /  60  20  05  10  10
PENSACOLA   66  82  68  86  73 /  40  10  05  10  20
DESTIN      68  83  69  87  74 /  40  05  05  10  20
EVERGREEN   59  82  59  89  67 /  30  10  05  10  10
WAYNESBORO  57  80  60  88  67 /  30  10  05  10  10
CAMDEN      56  80  58  88  66 /  20  05  05  05  05
CRESTVIEW   63  83  59  89  67 /  50  05  05  10  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

32/21




000
FXUS64 KMOB 212340 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...AVIATION UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
640 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.AVIATION...
22.00Z ISSUANCE...MVFR CIGS IN AND AROUND SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS A DRIER AIRMASS MOVED INTO THE AREA. /13

&&

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY]...THE NEXT OF A CONTINUED
SERIES OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE LOWER
MS RIVER AND CENTRAL GULF STATES FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON
COMBINED WITH MODERATE LEVELS OF INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE IN THE
LOWER LEVELS ALONG WITH DRYER AIR ABOVE 700 MB WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER
ROUND OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF INLAND
SOUTHEAST MS STRETCHING EASTWARD OVER COASTAL AL AND SOME OTHER
INLAND AREAS IN SOUTHWEST ALABAMA. AS MENTIONED BEFORE THE BEST
COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE APPROXIMATELY 50 MILES ON EITHER SIDE OF A LINE
STRETCHING FROM MOBILE AL TO WIGGINS MS INCLUDING LOWER PARTS OF
BALDWIN CO IN AL. MOST OF THIS REASONING IS FROM A BLEND OF THE
LATEST HRRR AND PHYSICAL RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF THROUGH THIS
EVENING. AT THE SFC A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH TO THE COAST BY
LATE THIS EVENING THEN MOVES WELL OFFSHORE BY 12Z FRI. MOST OF THE
HEAVIER PRECIP WILL MOVE SOUTH OVER THE GULF BY LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY FRI MORNING WITH MAYBE A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT THROUGH ABOUT MID MORNING FRI. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
WEAKER LIFT ALOFT COMBINED WITH DRIER AIR IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS
WILL HELP KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN THE 20 PERCENT RANGE OCCURRING MOSTLY
OVER LOWER PARTS OF INLAND SOUTHEAST MS AND LOWER MOBILE CO IN AL.
WITH LIMITED FORCING AND LOWER INSTABILITY VALUES IN THESE AREAS THE
THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE LOWER COMPARED
TO TODAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR ALL
AREAS IN THE CWFA TONIGHT WITH SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE FOR MOST
AREAS NEAR SUNRISE. AS FOR TEMPS WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE 12Z MAV
GUIDANCE THROUGH FRIDAY AND ADJUST A DEGREE OR TWO MAINLY FOR
CONSISTENCY WITH SURROUNDING WFOS. 32/EE

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WHILE ZONAL FLOW TRANSITIONS
SOUTHWEST OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION IN ADVANCE OF A DEEP
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES/FOUR CORNERS REGION.
THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ORIENTED OVER THE FAR NORTHERN
GULF FRIDAY NIGHT...BEFORE BECOMING DIFFUSE SATURDAY MORNING AS
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW BEGINS TO RETURN COURTESY OF THE SURFACE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE EAST COAST AND WESTERN
ATLANTIC. SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOW A SLIGHTLY DRIER AND MORE
SUBSIDENT AIRMASS SETTLING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION. WE WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST INTACT...THOUGH
WILL KEEP POPS AROUND 10 PERCENT SATURDAY AS AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
STORM CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT NEAR THE SEABREEZE. A DRIER
SURFACE AIRMASS OVER THE REGION WILL SUPPORT COOLER TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S OVER INTERIOR AREAS...AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S NEAR THE COAST.
HIGHS SATURDAY SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE
REGION. /21

.LONG TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY]...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND THE
ADJACENT WESTERN ATLANTIC SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST REGION SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY TO THE WEST OF THE RIDGE AXIS AND
ALSO UPSTREAM FROM A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS AND THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS. DEEP MOISTURE IS EXPECTED
TO RETURN TO THE FORECAST AREA WITHIN THE INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISING BACK TO THE 1.7 TO
1.9 INCH RANGE SUNDAY-TUESDAY. MID LEVEL TROUGH MAY LIFT TOWARD THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK...AND
MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS KEEP PLENTIFUL MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WE THEREFORE EXPECT AT LEAST
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA EACH DAY THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. A FEW STORMS
COULD BE STRONG AT TIMES GIVEN AMPLE AFTERNOON INSTABILITY WITH
FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS THAT DEVELOP. LITTLE CHANGE IN DAY-TO-DAY
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH LOWS
RANGING MOSTLY FROM THE UPPER 60S INLAND TO THE LOWER TO MID 70S NEAR
THE COAST. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. /21

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER NEAR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL AFFECT THE INSHORE WATERS AND GULF WATERS OUT TO 20 NM THROUGH
THIS EVENING THEN MOVE FURTHER EAST AND SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
FRI MORNING. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME REINFORCED LATE
TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT THAT MOVES ACROSS THE MARINE AREA LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST TO
THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND WESTERN ATLANTIC STRETCHING WEST OVER THE
NORTH CENTRAL GULF...LEADING TO A MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY FLOW
LATE SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      62  79  64  87  71 /  60  20  05  10  10
PENSACOLA   66  82  68  86  73 /  40  10  05  10  20
DESTIN      68  83  69  87  74 /  40  05  05  10  20
EVERGREEN   59  82  59  89  67 /  30  10  05  10  10
WAYNESBORO  57  80  60  88  67 /  30  10  05  10  10
CAMDEN      56  80  58  88  66 /  20  05  05  05  05
CRESTVIEW   63  83  59  89  67 /  50  05  05  10  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

32/21





000
FXUS64 KMOB 212340 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...AVIATION UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
640 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.AVIATION...
22.00Z ISSUANCE...MVFR CIGS IN AND AROUND SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS A DRIER AIRMASS MOVED INTO THE AREA. /13

&&

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY]...THE NEXT OF A CONTINUED
SERIES OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE LOWER
MS RIVER AND CENTRAL GULF STATES FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON
COMBINED WITH MODERATE LEVELS OF INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE IN THE
LOWER LEVELS ALONG WITH DRYER AIR ABOVE 700 MB WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER
ROUND OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF INLAND
SOUTHEAST MS STRETCHING EASTWARD OVER COASTAL AL AND SOME OTHER
INLAND AREAS IN SOUTHWEST ALABAMA. AS MENTIONED BEFORE THE BEST
COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE APPROXIMATELY 50 MILES ON EITHER SIDE OF A LINE
STRETCHING FROM MOBILE AL TO WIGGINS MS INCLUDING LOWER PARTS OF
BALDWIN CO IN AL. MOST OF THIS REASONING IS FROM A BLEND OF THE
LATEST HRRR AND PHYSICAL RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF THROUGH THIS
EVENING. AT THE SFC A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH TO THE COAST BY
LATE THIS EVENING THEN MOVES WELL OFFSHORE BY 12Z FRI. MOST OF THE
HEAVIER PRECIP WILL MOVE SOUTH OVER THE GULF BY LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY FRI MORNING WITH MAYBE A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT THROUGH ABOUT MID MORNING FRI. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
WEAKER LIFT ALOFT COMBINED WITH DRIER AIR IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS
WILL HELP KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN THE 20 PERCENT RANGE OCCURRING MOSTLY
OVER LOWER PARTS OF INLAND SOUTHEAST MS AND LOWER MOBILE CO IN AL.
WITH LIMITED FORCING AND LOWER INSTABILITY VALUES IN THESE AREAS THE
THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE LOWER COMPARED
TO TODAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR ALL
AREAS IN THE CWFA TONIGHT WITH SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE FOR MOST
AREAS NEAR SUNRISE. AS FOR TEMPS WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE 12Z MAV
GUIDANCE THROUGH FRIDAY AND ADJUST A DEGREE OR TWO MAINLY FOR
CONSISTENCY WITH SURROUNDING WFOS. 32/EE

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WHILE ZONAL FLOW TRANSITIONS
SOUTHWEST OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION IN ADVANCE OF A DEEP
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES/FOUR CORNERS REGION.
THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ORIENTED OVER THE FAR NORTHERN
GULF FRIDAY NIGHT...BEFORE BECOMING DIFFUSE SATURDAY MORNING AS
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW BEGINS TO RETURN COURTESY OF THE SURFACE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE EAST COAST AND WESTERN
ATLANTIC. SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOW A SLIGHTLY DRIER AND MORE
SUBSIDENT AIRMASS SETTLING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION. WE WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST INTACT...THOUGH
WILL KEEP POPS AROUND 10 PERCENT SATURDAY AS AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
STORM CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT NEAR THE SEABREEZE. A DRIER
SURFACE AIRMASS OVER THE REGION WILL SUPPORT COOLER TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S OVER INTERIOR AREAS...AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S NEAR THE COAST.
HIGHS SATURDAY SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE
REGION. /21

.LONG TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY]...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND THE
ADJACENT WESTERN ATLANTIC SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST REGION SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY TO THE WEST OF THE RIDGE AXIS AND
ALSO UPSTREAM FROM A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS AND THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS. DEEP MOISTURE IS EXPECTED
TO RETURN TO THE FORECAST AREA WITHIN THE INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISING BACK TO THE 1.7 TO
1.9 INCH RANGE SUNDAY-TUESDAY. MID LEVEL TROUGH MAY LIFT TOWARD THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK...AND
MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS KEEP PLENTIFUL MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WE THEREFORE EXPECT AT LEAST
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA EACH DAY THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. A FEW STORMS
COULD BE STRONG AT TIMES GIVEN AMPLE AFTERNOON INSTABILITY WITH
FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS THAT DEVELOP. LITTLE CHANGE IN DAY-TO-DAY
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH LOWS
RANGING MOSTLY FROM THE UPPER 60S INLAND TO THE LOWER TO MID 70S NEAR
THE COAST. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. /21

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER NEAR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL AFFECT THE INSHORE WATERS AND GULF WATERS OUT TO 20 NM THROUGH
THIS EVENING THEN MOVE FURTHER EAST AND SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
FRI MORNING. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME REINFORCED LATE
TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT THAT MOVES ACROSS THE MARINE AREA LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST TO
THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND WESTERN ATLANTIC STRETCHING WEST OVER THE
NORTH CENTRAL GULF...LEADING TO A MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY FLOW
LATE SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      62  79  64  87  71 /  60  20  05  10  10
PENSACOLA   66  82  68  86  73 /  40  10  05  10  20
DESTIN      68  83  69  87  74 /  40  05  05  10  20
EVERGREEN   59  82  59  89  67 /  30  10  05  10  10
WAYNESBORO  57  80  60  88  67 /  30  10  05  10  10
CAMDEN      56  80  58  88  66 /  20  05  05  05  05
CRESTVIEW   63  83  59  89  67 /  50  05  05  10  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

32/21




000
FXUS64 KMOB 212340 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...AVIATION UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
640 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.AVIATION...
22.00Z ISSUANCE...MVFR CIGS IN AND AROUND SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS A DRIER AIRMASS MOVED INTO THE AREA. /13

&&

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY]...THE NEXT OF A CONTINUED
SERIES OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE LOWER
MS RIVER AND CENTRAL GULF STATES FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON
COMBINED WITH MODERATE LEVELS OF INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE IN THE
LOWER LEVELS ALONG WITH DRYER AIR ABOVE 700 MB WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER
ROUND OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF INLAND
SOUTHEAST MS STRETCHING EASTWARD OVER COASTAL AL AND SOME OTHER
INLAND AREAS IN SOUTHWEST ALABAMA. AS MENTIONED BEFORE THE BEST
COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE APPROXIMATELY 50 MILES ON EITHER SIDE OF A LINE
STRETCHING FROM MOBILE AL TO WIGGINS MS INCLUDING LOWER PARTS OF
BALDWIN CO IN AL. MOST OF THIS REASONING IS FROM A BLEND OF THE
LATEST HRRR AND PHYSICAL RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF THROUGH THIS
EVENING. AT THE SFC A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH TO THE COAST BY
LATE THIS EVENING THEN MOVES WELL OFFSHORE BY 12Z FRI. MOST OF THE
HEAVIER PRECIP WILL MOVE SOUTH OVER THE GULF BY LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY FRI MORNING WITH MAYBE A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT THROUGH ABOUT MID MORNING FRI. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
WEAKER LIFT ALOFT COMBINED WITH DRIER AIR IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS
WILL HELP KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN THE 20 PERCENT RANGE OCCURRING MOSTLY
OVER LOWER PARTS OF INLAND SOUTHEAST MS AND LOWER MOBILE CO IN AL.
WITH LIMITED FORCING AND LOWER INSTABILITY VALUES IN THESE AREAS THE
THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE LOWER COMPARED
TO TODAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR ALL
AREAS IN THE CWFA TONIGHT WITH SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE FOR MOST
AREAS NEAR SUNRISE. AS FOR TEMPS WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE 12Z MAV
GUIDANCE THROUGH FRIDAY AND ADJUST A DEGREE OR TWO MAINLY FOR
CONSISTENCY WITH SURROUNDING WFOS. 32/EE

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WHILE ZONAL FLOW TRANSITIONS
SOUTHWEST OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION IN ADVANCE OF A DEEP
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES/FOUR CORNERS REGION.
THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ORIENTED OVER THE FAR NORTHERN
GULF FRIDAY NIGHT...BEFORE BECOMING DIFFUSE SATURDAY MORNING AS
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW BEGINS TO RETURN COURTESY OF THE SURFACE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE EAST COAST AND WESTERN
ATLANTIC. SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOW A SLIGHTLY DRIER AND MORE
SUBSIDENT AIRMASS SETTLING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION. WE WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST INTACT...THOUGH
WILL KEEP POPS AROUND 10 PERCENT SATURDAY AS AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
STORM CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT NEAR THE SEABREEZE. A DRIER
SURFACE AIRMASS OVER THE REGION WILL SUPPORT COOLER TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S OVER INTERIOR AREAS...AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S NEAR THE COAST.
HIGHS SATURDAY SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE
REGION. /21

.LONG TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY]...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND THE
ADJACENT WESTERN ATLANTIC SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST REGION SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY TO THE WEST OF THE RIDGE AXIS AND
ALSO UPSTREAM FROM A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS AND THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS. DEEP MOISTURE IS EXPECTED
TO RETURN TO THE FORECAST AREA WITHIN THE INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISING BACK TO THE 1.7 TO
1.9 INCH RANGE SUNDAY-TUESDAY. MID LEVEL TROUGH MAY LIFT TOWARD THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK...AND
MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS KEEP PLENTIFUL MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WE THEREFORE EXPECT AT LEAST
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA EACH DAY THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. A FEW STORMS
COULD BE STRONG AT TIMES GIVEN AMPLE AFTERNOON INSTABILITY WITH
FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS THAT DEVELOP. LITTLE CHANGE IN DAY-TO-DAY
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH LOWS
RANGING MOSTLY FROM THE UPPER 60S INLAND TO THE LOWER TO MID 70S NEAR
THE COAST. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. /21

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER NEAR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL AFFECT THE INSHORE WATERS AND GULF WATERS OUT TO 20 NM THROUGH
THIS EVENING THEN MOVE FURTHER EAST AND SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
FRI MORNING. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME REINFORCED LATE
TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT THAT MOVES ACROSS THE MARINE AREA LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST TO
THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND WESTERN ATLANTIC STRETCHING WEST OVER THE
NORTH CENTRAL GULF...LEADING TO A MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY FLOW
LATE SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      62  79  64  87  71 /  60  20  05  10  10
PENSACOLA   66  82  68  86  73 /  40  10  05  10  20
DESTIN      68  83  69  87  74 /  40  05  05  10  20
EVERGREEN   59  82  59  89  67 /  30  10  05  10  10
WAYNESBORO  57  80  60  88  67 /  30  10  05  10  10
CAMDEN      56  80  58  88  66 /  20  05  05  05  05
CRESTVIEW   63  83  59  89  67 /  50  05  05  10  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

32/21





000
FXUS64 KMOB 212103
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
403 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY]...THE NEXT OF A CONTINUED
SERIES OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE LOWER
MS RIVER AND CENTRAL GULF STATES FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON
COMBINED WITH MODERATE LEVELS OF INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE IN THE
LOWER LEVELS ALONG WITH DRYER AIR ABOVE 700 MB WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER
ROUND OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF INLAND
SOUTHEAST MS STRETCHING EASTWARD OVER COASTAL AL AND SOME OTHER
INLAND AREAS IN SOUTHWEST ALABAMA. AS MENTIONED BEFORE THE BEST
COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE APPROXIMATELY 50 MILES ON EITHER SIDE OF A LINE
STRETCHING FROM MOBILE AL TO WIGGINS MS INCLUDING LOWER PARTS OF
BALDWIN CO IN AL. MOST OF THIS REASONING IS FROM A BLEND OF THE
LATEST HRRR AND PHYSICAL RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF THROUGH THIS
EVENING. AT THE SFC A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH TO THE COAST BY
LATE THIS EVENING THEN MOVES WELL OFFSHORE BY 12Z FRI. MOST OF THE
HEAVIER PRECIP WILL MOVE SOUTH OVER THE GULF BY LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY FRI MORNING WITH MAYBE A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT THROUGH ABOUT MID MORNING FRI. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
WEAKER LIFT ALOFT COMBINED WITH DRIER AIR IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS
WILL HELP KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN THE 20 PERCENT RANGE OCCURRING MOSTLY
OVER LOWER PARTS OF INLAND SOUTHEAST MS AND LOWER MOBILE CO IN AL.
WITH LIMITED FORCING AND LOWER INSTABILITY VALUES IN THESE AREAS THE
THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE LOWER COMPARED
TO TODAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR ALL
AREAS IN THE CWFA TONIGHT WITH SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE FOR MOST
AREAS NEAR SUNRISE. AS FOR TEMPS WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE 12Z MAV
GUIDANCE THROUGH FRIDAY AND ADJUST A DEGREE OR TWO MAINLY FOR
CONSISTENCY WITH SURROUNDING WFOS. 32/EE

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WHILE ZONAL FLOW TRANSITIONS
SOUTHWEST OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION IN ADVANCE OF A DEEP
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES/FOUR CORNERS REGION.
THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ORIENTED OVER THE FAR NORTHERN
GULF FRIDAY NIGHT...BEFORE BECOMING DIFFUSE SATURDAY MORNING AS
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW BEGINS TO RETURN COURTESY OF THE SURFACE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE EAST COAST AND WESTERN
ATLANTIC. SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOW A SLIGHTLY DRIER AND MORE
SUBSIDENT AIRMASS SETTLING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION. WE WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST INTACT...THOUGH
WILL KEEP POPS AROUND 10 PERCENT SATURDAY AS AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
STORM CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT NEAR THE SEABREEZE. A DRIER
SURFACE AIRMASS OVER THE REGION WILL SUPPORT COOLER TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S OVER INTERIOR AREAS...AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S NEAR THE COAST.
HIGHS SATURDAY SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE
REGION. /21

.LONG TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY]...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND THE
ADJACENT WESTERN ATLANTIC SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST REGION SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY TO THE WEST OF THE RIDGE AXIS AND
ALSO UPSTREAM FROM A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS AND THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS. DEEP MOISTURE IS EXPECTED
TO RETURN TO THE FORECAST AREA WITHIN THE INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISING BACK TO THE 1.7 TO
1.9 INCH RANGE SUNDAY-TUESDAY. MID LEVEL TROUGH MAY LIFT TOWARD THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK...AND
MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS KEEP PLENTIFUL MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WE THEREFORE EXPECT AT LEAST
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA EACH DAY THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. A FEW STORMS
COULD BE STRONG AT TIMES GIVEN AMPLE AFTERNOON INSTABILITY WITH
FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS THAT DEVELOP. LITTLE CHANGE IN DAY-TO-DAY
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH LOWS
RANGING MOSTLY FROM THE UPPER 60S INLAND TO THE LOWER TO MID 70S NEAR
THE COAST. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. /21

&&

.AVIATION...
21.18Z ISSUANCE...
MVFR TO IFR CIGS MOSTLY IN AND AROUND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
TONIGHT. GUSTY STRAIGHT LINE WINDS...POSSIBLE SMALL TO MEDIUM SIZE
HAIL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND PERIODS OF VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL
ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY VARIABLE AT 3 TO
5 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING WITH HIGHER GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS
OR HIGHER WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
THIS EVENING. 32/EE

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER NEAR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL AFFECT THE INSHORE WATERS AND GULF WATERS OUT TO 20 NM THROUGH
THIS EVENING THEN MOVE FURTHER EAST AND SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
FRI MORNING. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME REINFORCED LATE
TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT THAT MOVES ACROSS THE MARINE AREA LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST TO
THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND WESTERN ATLANTIC STRETCHING WEST OVER THE
NORTH CENTRAL GULF...LEADING TO A MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY FLOW
LATE SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      62  79  64  87  71 /  60  20  05  10  10
PENSACOLA   66  82  68  86  73 /  40  10  05  10  20
DESTIN      68  83  69  87  74 /  40  05  05  10  20
EVERGREEN   59  82  59  89  67 /  30  10  05  10  10
WAYNESBORO  57  80  60  88  67 /  30  10  05  10  10
CAMDEN      56  80  58  88  66 /  20  05  05  05  05
CRESTVIEW   63  83  59  89  67 /  50  05  05  10  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

32/21




000
FXUS64 KMOB 211841 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
141 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.UPDATE...DID A QUICK UPDATE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST GENERALLY TO
TWEAK RAIN CHANCES FOR MOST OF THE CWFA FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. SOME AREAS WELL TO THE NORTH NOW HAVE SLIGHTLY LOWER POPS
WHILE MOST AREAS OVER LOWER INLAND SOUTHEAST MS...COASTAL AL AND
NWFL NOW HAVE SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAIN CHANCES THROUGH TONIGHT. THE BEST
COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE APPROXIMATELY 50 MILES ON EITHER SIDE OF A LINE
STRETCHING FROM MOBILE AL TO WIGGINS MS. ALSO NOTED WAS TO POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY IN THE
HIGHER POP AREA MENTIONED ABOVE. GUSTY STRAIGHT LINE WINDS...DIME TO
NICKLE SIZE HAIL AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE
MAIN THREATS ALONG WITH VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH RAINFALL TOTALS UP
TO ABOUT 2 INCHES PER HOUR LOCALLY. THE HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY CREATE
MINOR STREET FLOODING IN URBAN AREAS INCLUDING MOBILE AL ALONG WITH
SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORMING AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT MOVING DOWN FROM THE SOUTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST LATER
TONIGHT WITH THE WIND SHIFT FROM THE NORTH. 32/EE

&&

.AVIATION...21.18Z ISSUANCE...MVFR TO IFR CIGS MOSTLY IN AND AROUND
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT. GUSTY STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS...POSSIBLE SMALL TO MEDIUM SIZE HAIL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
PERIODS OF VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS. 32/EE

&&

.MARINE...MADE A FEW TWEAKS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING
AHEAD AND IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT MOVING OFFSHORE LATE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SUSTAINED NORTHERLY WINDS UP TO 15 KNOTS
MAINLY OVER THE OPEN GULF WATERS AND LOWER END MOBILE BAY INCLUDING
THE MISSISSIPPI SOUND EAST OF PACAGOULA. 32/EE


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      66  83  67  87  72 /  60  20  10  10  10
PENSACOLA   67  83  70  86  74 /  40  10  05  10  10
DESTIN      68  82  72  84  76 /  40  05  05  10  20
EVERGREEN   60  83  63  90  71 /  30  10  05  10  10
WAYNESBORO  60  82  63  88  69 /  30  10  05  10  10
CAMDEN      60  81  62  88  70 /  20  10  05  10  05
CRESTVIEW   63  85  65  89  72 /  50  05  05  10  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMOB 211841 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
141 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.UPDATE...DID A QUICK UPDATE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST GENERALLY TO
TWEAK RAIN CHANCES FOR MOST OF THE CWFA FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. SOME AREAS WELL TO THE NORTH NOW HAVE SLIGHTLY LOWER POPS
WHILE MOST AREAS OVER LOWER INLAND SOUTHEAST MS...COASTAL AL AND
NWFL NOW HAVE SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAIN CHANCES THROUGH TONIGHT. THE BEST
COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE APPROXIMATELY 50 MILES ON EITHER SIDE OF A LINE
STRETCHING FROM MOBILE AL TO WIGGINS MS. ALSO NOTED WAS TO POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY IN THE
HIGHER POP AREA MENTIONED ABOVE. GUSTY STRAIGHT LINE WINDS...DIME TO
NICKLE SIZE HAIL AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE
MAIN THREATS ALONG WITH VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH RAINFALL TOTALS UP
TO ABOUT 2 INCHES PER HOUR LOCALLY. THE HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY CREATE
MINOR STREET FLOODING IN URBAN AREAS INCLUDING MOBILE AL ALONG WITH
SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORMING AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT MOVING DOWN FROM THE SOUTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST LATER
TONIGHT WITH THE WIND SHIFT FROM THE NORTH. 32/EE

&&

.AVIATION...21.18Z ISSUANCE...MVFR TO IFR CIGS MOSTLY IN AND AROUND
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT. GUSTY STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS...POSSIBLE SMALL TO MEDIUM SIZE HAIL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
PERIODS OF VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS. 32/EE

&&

.MARINE...MADE A FEW TWEAKS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING
AHEAD AND IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT MOVING OFFSHORE LATE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SUSTAINED NORTHERLY WINDS UP TO 15 KNOTS
MAINLY OVER THE OPEN GULF WATERS AND LOWER END MOBILE BAY INCLUDING
THE MISSISSIPPI SOUND EAST OF PACAGOULA. 32/EE


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      66  83  67  87  72 /  60  20  10  10  10
PENSACOLA   67  83  70  86  74 /  40  10  05  10  10
DESTIN      68  82  72  84  76 /  40  05  05  10  20
EVERGREEN   60  83  63  90  71 /  30  10  05  10  10
WAYNESBORO  60  82  63  88  69 /  30  10  05  10  10
CAMDEN      60  81  62  88  70 /  20  10  05  10  05
CRESTVIEW   63  85  65  89  72 /  50  05  05  10  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 211109 CCA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
506 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SHORT TERM [TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT]...AT THE SURFACE WE HAVE A HIGH
OVER THE BOOT-HEEL OF MISSOURI AND A LOW CENTER LOCATED OVER THE
GEORGES BANK. A WEAK COOL FRONT IS EXTENDING AS A TROUGH OUT OF THAT
LOW OVER THE MID SOUTH. WEAK ZONAL FLOW AT 500 MB WILL HOST A SERIES
OF SMALL PERTURBATIONS ALONG THAT FRONT WHICH WILL APPROACH OUR
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
FORM ALONG IT LATE THIS MORNING OVER SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND
EVENTUALLY REACH THE COAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION ALONG
THE COAST WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND
TAPER OFF AFTER SUNSET THROUGH THIS EVENING BECOMING CONCENTRATED
MORE OVER THE GULF WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST. THIS
AFTERNOON WETBULB ZERO IS PREDICTED A BIT ABOVE 10000 FEET AND CAPE
AS HIGH AS 2000 J/KG AND PRECIPITABLE WATER 1.5 INCHES. WEAK
DYNAMICS MEAN ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED BUT SOME
STORMS COULD BECOME MARGINALLY SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING STRONG
GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH
POSSIBLE SMALL HAIL.

MUCH OF OUR RAINFALL FORECAST IS BASED ON THE OUTPUTS OF THE HIGH
RESOLUTION NON HYDROSTATIC MODELS...VIS-A-VIS THE HRRR AND
WRF...BECAUSE OF THE DETAIL THEY PROVIDE AND FAVORABLE PERFORMANCE
THEY HAVE SHOWN RECENTLY. WE CONSIDER A THIRD OF AN INCH BASIN
AVERAGE RAINFALL AND A POP OF 50% ABOUT AS HIGH AS WE ARE WILLING TO
GO FOR THE MOMENT....BUT UPDATES MAY BE FORTHCOMING LATER TODAY IF
THE RADAR PICTURE MORE CLEARLY WARRANTS IT.

BRIEF PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING ESPECIALLY IN PLACES WHERE HEAVY RAIN TODAY IS FOLLOWED BY
CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT. WE EXPECT THE EVAPOTRANSPORATION PROCESS
TO OCCUR IN THESE PLACES AS WELL AS EVAPORATION FROM FOLIAGE TO
RAISE DEWPOINTS. SATURATION WOULD THEN OCCUR WHEN RADIATION
COOLING...LIGHT WIND...AND A NEAR SURFACE INVERSION FORMS INCREASING
THE RISK OF LOWERED VISIBILITY.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S...GENERALLY COOLER TO THE
NORTH AND MAXIMIZING ALONG THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR. LOWS WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 60S ALONG THE COAST AND DECREASING TO NEAR 60 OVER OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES. /77

UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS MOVES EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CANADIAN
PROVINCES/NORTHEAST US DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WITH HIGH LEVEL FLOW
FLATTENING (BECOMING NEARLY ZONAL...WEST TO EAST) OVER THE SOUTHERN
US. SURFACE FRONT EASES INTO THE NORTHERN GULF...PRETTY FAR SOUTH
THIS TIME OF YEAR...BUT BEGINS TO STALL ACROSS THE MOUTH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS OVER PORTIONS
OF INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND COASTAL SOUTHWEST ALABAMA
FRIDAY JUST A BIT CLOSER TO BOUNDARY. ELSEWHERE...CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE MINIMAL AS THE BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH BRINGS IN
A DEEPER DRIER AIRMASS. DAYTIME HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE LOWER HALF OF
THE 80S...NOT TOO FAR OFF PACE WITH CLIMATOLOGY. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE LOWER HALF OF THE 60S INTERIOR TO UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S COAST. /10

.LONG TERM [SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE
EVOLVING UPPER AIR PATTERN HEADING INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE MEMORIAL
DAY WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM SHARPENS AS IT HEADS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS CAUSES
DOWNSTREAM RIDGE TO BEGIN AMPLIFYING FROM THE GULF...NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN US. WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT...RAIN CHANCES ARE LOW
FOR SATURDAY. THINGS BEGIN TO CHANGE BY SUNDAY. WITH AN EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE HIGH LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ON SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY AT THE BASE OF LONGWAVE TROF...EJECTS NORTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN
TEXAS TO WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. WITH TROF...TAPPING
DEEPER GULF MOISTURE THAT WILL BE EXPANDING NORTHWARD...CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS BEGIN TO TREND UPWARD ON SUNDAY. THE POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR AN UNSETTLED PERIOD EXTENDING INTO MEMORIAL DAY AND BEYOND
AS WELL. THE PASSAGE OF A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES IN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WHERE DEEP MOISTURE PERSISTS BETWEEN A LARGE
SCALE RIDGE TO THE EAST AND TROF AXIS OVER THE PLAINS...WILL MAINTAIN
CHANCES OF DAILY SHOWERS/STORMS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

UNFORTUNATELY FOR MEMORIAL DAY FAMILY GET TOGETHERS...SOME OF THE
STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO BRIEFLY SEVERE AT TIMES...BRINGING STRONG
WIND GUSTS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS. DAYTIME
HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 86 TO 91 OVER THE INTERIOR. OVER
THE BEACHES...CLOSER PROXIMITY TO GULF KEEPS HIGHS IN THE LOWER HALF
OF THE 80S. WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BECOMING FIRMLY ESTABLISHED
FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO THE EASTERN US...OVERNIGHT LOWS
MODERATE BACK INTO THE LOWER/MID 70S LATE IN THE WEEKEND...CONTINUING
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. /10

&&

.AVIATION...
21.12Z...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD
THROUGHOUT THE REGION EXCEPT ALONG A WEAK FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM ALONG IT
AFTER 21.16Z OVER SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND EVENTUALLY REACH THE
COAST BY 21.18Z. CONVECTION ALONG THE COAST WILL BE CONSIDERABLY MORE
ACTIVE AND CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 22.00Z. WE
EXPECT CONVECTION TO DECREASE AFTER SUNSET AND CONCENTRATE MORE OVER
THE GULF WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST. BRIEF PATCHY FOG IS
POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. /77

&&

.MARINE...A HIGH WILL DOMINATE THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF TONIGHT AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN
GULF THIS EVENING BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND
LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND IT. THE WIND WILL VEER NORTHEAST AND
BECOME SOUTHEAST BY SATURDAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES FURTHER EAST THIS
WEEKEND...THE WIND WILL STRENGTHEN TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS OVER THE GULF
AND SEAS WILL INCREASE...APPROACHING 6 FEET OFFSHORE. THE SWAN WAS
IN PRETTY CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE GWW AND THE WNA WAVE MODELS AS
WELL AS THE BRETSCHNEIDER APPROACH. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER
NEAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. /77

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      87  66  83  67  87 /  50  30  20  10  10
PENSACOLA   88  67  83  70  86 /  50  20  10  05  10
DESTIN      87  68  82  72  84 /  40  20  05  05  10
EVERGREEN   87  60  83  63  90 /  40  10  10  05  10
WAYNESBORO  86  60  82  63  88 /  40  10  10  05  10
CAMDEN      85  60  81  62  88 /  30  10  10  05  10
CRESTVIEW   91  63  85  65  89 /  40  20  05  05  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 211109 CCA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
506 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SHORT TERM [TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT]...AT THE SURFACE WE HAVE A HIGH
OVER THE BOOT-HEEL OF MISSOURI AND A LOW CENTER LOCATED OVER THE
GEORGES BANK. A WEAK COOL FRONT IS EXTENDING AS A TROUGH OUT OF THAT
LOW OVER THE MID SOUTH. WEAK ZONAL FLOW AT 500 MB WILL HOST A SERIES
OF SMALL PERTURBATIONS ALONG THAT FRONT WHICH WILL APPROACH OUR
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
FORM ALONG IT LATE THIS MORNING OVER SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND
EVENTUALLY REACH THE COAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION ALONG
THE COAST WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND
TAPER OFF AFTER SUNSET THROUGH THIS EVENING BECOMING CONCENTRATED
MORE OVER THE GULF WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST. THIS
AFTERNOON WETBULB ZERO IS PREDICTED A BIT ABOVE 10000 FEET AND CAPE
AS HIGH AS 2000 J/KG AND PRECIPITABLE WATER 1.5 INCHES. WEAK
DYNAMICS MEAN ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED BUT SOME
STORMS COULD BECOME MARGINALLY SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING STRONG
GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH
POSSIBLE SMALL HAIL.

MUCH OF OUR RAINFALL FORECAST IS BASED ON THE OUTPUTS OF THE HIGH
RESOLUTION NON HYDROSTATIC MODELS...VIS-A-VIS THE HRRR AND
WRF...BECAUSE OF THE DETAIL THEY PROVIDE AND FAVORABLE PERFORMANCE
THEY HAVE SHOWN RECENTLY. WE CONSIDER A THIRD OF AN INCH BASIN
AVERAGE RAINFALL AND A POP OF 50% ABOUT AS HIGH AS WE ARE WILLING TO
GO FOR THE MOMENT....BUT UPDATES MAY BE FORTHCOMING LATER TODAY IF
THE RADAR PICTURE MORE CLEARLY WARRANTS IT.

BRIEF PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING ESPECIALLY IN PLACES WHERE HEAVY RAIN TODAY IS FOLLOWED BY
CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT. WE EXPECT THE EVAPOTRANSPORATION PROCESS
TO OCCUR IN THESE PLACES AS WELL AS EVAPORATION FROM FOLIAGE TO
RAISE DEWPOINTS. SATURATION WOULD THEN OCCUR WHEN RADIATION
COOLING...LIGHT WIND...AND A NEAR SURFACE INVERSION FORMS INCREASING
THE RISK OF LOWERED VISIBILITY.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S...GENERALLY COOLER TO THE
NORTH AND MAXIMIZING ALONG THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR. LOWS WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 60S ALONG THE COAST AND DECREASING TO NEAR 60 OVER OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES. /77

UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS MOVES EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CANADIAN
PROVINCES/NORTHEAST US DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WITH HIGH LEVEL FLOW
FLATTENING (BECOMING NEARLY ZONAL...WEST TO EAST) OVER THE SOUTHERN
US. SURFACE FRONT EASES INTO THE NORTHERN GULF...PRETTY FAR SOUTH
THIS TIME OF YEAR...BUT BEGINS TO STALL ACROSS THE MOUTH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS OVER PORTIONS
OF INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND COASTAL SOUTHWEST ALABAMA
FRIDAY JUST A BIT CLOSER TO BOUNDARY. ELSEWHERE...CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE MINIMAL AS THE BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH BRINGS IN
A DEEPER DRIER AIRMASS. DAYTIME HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE LOWER HALF OF
THE 80S...NOT TOO FAR OFF PACE WITH CLIMATOLOGY. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE LOWER HALF OF THE 60S INTERIOR TO UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S COAST. /10

.LONG TERM [SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE
EVOLVING UPPER AIR PATTERN HEADING INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE MEMORIAL
DAY WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM SHARPENS AS IT HEADS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS CAUSES
DOWNSTREAM RIDGE TO BEGIN AMPLIFYING FROM THE GULF...NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN US. WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT...RAIN CHANCES ARE LOW
FOR SATURDAY. THINGS BEGIN TO CHANGE BY SUNDAY. WITH AN EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE HIGH LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ON SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY AT THE BASE OF LONGWAVE TROF...EJECTS NORTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN
TEXAS TO WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. WITH TROF...TAPPING
DEEPER GULF MOISTURE THAT WILL BE EXPANDING NORTHWARD...CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS BEGIN TO TREND UPWARD ON SUNDAY. THE POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR AN UNSETTLED PERIOD EXTENDING INTO MEMORIAL DAY AND BEYOND
AS WELL. THE PASSAGE OF A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES IN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WHERE DEEP MOISTURE PERSISTS BETWEEN A LARGE
SCALE RIDGE TO THE EAST AND TROF AXIS OVER THE PLAINS...WILL MAINTAIN
CHANCES OF DAILY SHOWERS/STORMS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

UNFORTUNATELY FOR MEMORIAL DAY FAMILY GET TOGETHERS...SOME OF THE
STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO BRIEFLY SEVERE AT TIMES...BRINGING STRONG
WIND GUSTS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS. DAYTIME
HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 86 TO 91 OVER THE INTERIOR. OVER
THE BEACHES...CLOSER PROXIMITY TO GULF KEEPS HIGHS IN THE LOWER HALF
OF THE 80S. WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BECOMING FIRMLY ESTABLISHED
FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO THE EASTERN US...OVERNIGHT LOWS
MODERATE BACK INTO THE LOWER/MID 70S LATE IN THE WEEKEND...CONTINUING
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. /10

&&

.AVIATION...
21.12Z...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD
THROUGHOUT THE REGION EXCEPT ALONG A WEAK FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM ALONG IT
AFTER 21.16Z OVER SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND EVENTUALLY REACH THE
COAST BY 21.18Z. CONVECTION ALONG THE COAST WILL BE CONSIDERABLY MORE
ACTIVE AND CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 22.00Z. WE
EXPECT CONVECTION TO DECREASE AFTER SUNSET AND CONCENTRATE MORE OVER
THE GULF WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST. BRIEF PATCHY FOG IS
POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. /77

&&

.MARINE...A HIGH WILL DOMINATE THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF TONIGHT AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN
GULF THIS EVENING BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND
LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND IT. THE WIND WILL VEER NORTHEAST AND
BECOME SOUTHEAST BY SATURDAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES FURTHER EAST THIS
WEEKEND...THE WIND WILL STRENGTHEN TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS OVER THE GULF
AND SEAS WILL INCREASE...APPROACHING 6 FEET OFFSHORE. THE SWAN WAS
IN PRETTY CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE GWW AND THE WNA WAVE MODELS AS
WELL AS THE BRETSCHNEIDER APPROACH. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER
NEAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. /77

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      87  66  83  67  87 /  50  30  20  10  10
PENSACOLA   88  67  83  70  86 /  50  20  10  05  10
DESTIN      87  68  82  72  84 /  40  20  05  05  10
EVERGREEN   87  60  83  63  90 /  40  10  10  05  10
WAYNESBORO  86  60  82  63  88 /  40  10  10  05  10
CAMDEN      85  60  81  62  88 /  30  10  10  05  10
CRESTVIEW   91  63  85  65  89 /  40  20  05  05  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMOB 211006
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
506 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SHORT TERM [TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT]...AT THE SURFACE WE HAVE A HIGH
OVER THE BOOT-HEEL OF MISSOURI AND A LOW CENTER LOCATED OVER THE
GEORGES BANK. A WEAK COOL FRONT IS EXTENDING AS A TROUGH OUT OF THAT
LOW OVER THE MID SOUTH. WEAK ZONAL FLOW AT 500 MB WILL HOST A SERIES
OF SMALL PERTURBATIONS ALONG THAT FRONT WHICH WILL APPROACH OUR
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
FORM ALONG IT LATE THIS MORNING OVER SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND
EVENTUALLY REACH THE COAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION ALONG
THE COAST WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND
TAPER OFF AFTER SUNSET THROUGH THIS EVENING BECOMING CONCENTRATED
MORE OVER THE GULF WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST. BRIEF
PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING ESPECIALLY IN PLACES WHERE HEAVY RAIN TODAY IS FOLLOWED BY
CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT. WE EXPECT THE EVAPOTRANSPORATION PROCESS
TO OCCUR IN THESE PLACES AS WELL AS EVAPORATION FROM FOLIAGE TO
RAISE DEWPOINTS. SATURATION WOULD THEN OCCUR WHEN RADIATION
COOLING...LIGHT WIND...AND A NEAR SURFACE INVERSION FORMS INCREASING
THE RISK OF LOWERED VISIBILITY. MUCH OF OUR RAINFALL FORECAST IS
BASED ON THE OUTPUTS OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION NON HYDROSTATIC
MODELS...VIS-A-VIS THE HRRR AND WRF...BECAUSE OF THE DETAIL THEY
PROVIDE AND FAVORABLE PERFORMANCE THEY HAVE SHOWN RECENTLY. WE
CONSIDER A QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH QPF AND A POP 50% AS HIGH AS WE
ARE WILLING TO OFFER FOR THE MOMENT....BUT UPDATES MAY BE
FORTHCOMING LATER TODAY ONCE THE RADAR PICTURE BECOMES MORE CLEAR.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S...GENERALLY COOLER TO THE
NORTH AND MAXIMIZING ALONG THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR. LOWS WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 60S ALONG THE COAST AND DECREASING TO NEAR 60 OVER OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES. /77

UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS MOVES EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CANADIAN
PROVINCES/NORTHEAST US DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WITH HIGH LEVEL FLOW
FLATTENING (BECOMING NEARLY ZONAL...WEST TO EAST) OVER THE SOUTHERN
US. SURFACE FRONT EASES INTO THE NORTHERN GULF...PRETTY FAR SOUTH
THIS TIME OF YEAR...BUT BEGINS TO STALL ACROSS THE MOUTH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS OVER PORTIONS
OF INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND COASTAL SOUTHWEST ALABAMA
FRIDAY JUST A BIT CLOSER TO BOUNDARY. ELSEWHERE...CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE MINIMAL AS THE BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH BRINGS IN
A DEEPER DRIER AIRMASS. DAYTIME HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE LOWER HALF OF
THE 80S...NOT TOO FAR OFF PACE WITH CLIMATOLOGY. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE LOWER HALF OF THE 60S INTERIOR TO UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S COAST. /10

.LONG TERM [SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE
EVOLVING UPPER AIR PATTERN HEADING INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE MEMORIAL
DAY WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM SHARPENS AS IT HEADS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS CAUSES
DOWNSTREAM RIDGE TO BEGIN AMPLIFYING FROM THE GULF...NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN US. WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT...RAIN CHANCES ARE LOW
FOR SATURDAY. THINGS BEGIN TO CHANGE BY SUNDAY. WITH AN EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE HIGH LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ON SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY AT THE BASE OF LONGWAVE TROF...EJECTS NORTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN
TEXAS TO WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. WITH TROF...TAPPING
DEEPER GULF MOISTURE THAT WILL BE EXPANDING NORTHWARD...CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS BEGIN TO TREND UPWARD ON SUNDAY. THE POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR AN UNSETTLED PERIOD EXTENDING INTO MEMORIAL DAY AND BEYOND
AS WELL. THE PASSAGE OF A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES IN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WHERE DEEP MOISTURE PERSISTS BETWEEN A LARGE
SCALE RIDGE TO THE EAST AND TROF AXIS OVER THE PLAINS...WILL MAINTAIN
CHANCES OF DAILY SHOWERS/STORMS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

UNFORTUNATELY FOR MEMORIAL DAY FAMILY GET TOGETHERS...SOME OF THE
STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO BRIEFLY SEVERE AT TIMES...BRINGING STRONG
WIND GUSTS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS. DAYTIME
HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 86 TO 91 OVER THE INTERIOR. OVER
THE BEACHES...CLOSER PROXIMITY TO GULF KEEPS HIGHS IN THE LOWER HALF
OF THE 80S. WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BECOMING FIRMLY ESTABLISHED
FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO THE EASTERN US...OVERNIGHT LOWS
MODERATE BACK INTO THE LOWER/MID 70S LATE IN THE WEEKEND...CONTINUING
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. /10

&&

.AVIATION...
21.12Z...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD
THROUGHOUT THE REGION EXCEPT ALONG A WEAK FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM ALONG IT
AFTER 21.16Z OVER SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND EVENTUALLY REACH THE
COAST BY 21.18Z. CONVECTION ALONG THE COAST WILL BE CONSIDERABLY MORE
ACTIVE AND CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 22.00Z. WE
EXPECT CONVECTION TO DECREASE AFTER SUNSET AND CONCENTRATE MORE OVER
THE GULF WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST. BRIEF PATCHY FOG IS
POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. /77

&&

.MARINE...A HIGH WILL DOMINATE THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF TONIGHT AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN
GULF THIS EVENING BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND
LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND IT. THE WIND WILL VEER NORTHEAST AND
BECOME SOUTHEAST BY SATURDAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES FURTHER EAST THIS
WEEKEND...THE WIND WILL STRENGTHEN TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS OVER THE GULF
AND SEAS WILL INCREASE...APPROACHING 6 FEET OFFSHORE. THE SWAN WAS
IN PRETTY CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE GWW AND THE WNA WAVE MODELS AS
WELL AS THE BRETSCHNEIDER APPROACH. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER
NEAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. /77

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      87  66  83  67  87 /  50  30  20  10  10
PENSACOLA   88  67  83  70  86 /  50  20  10  05  10
DESTIN      87  68  82  72  84 /  40  20  05  05  10
EVERGREEN   87  60  83  63  90 /  40  10  10  05  10
WAYNESBORO  86  60  82  63  88 /  40  10  10  05  10
CAMDEN      85  60  81  62  88 /  30  10  10  05  10
CRESTVIEW   91  63  85  65  89 /  40  20  05  05  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 211006
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
506 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SHORT TERM [TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT]...AT THE SURFACE WE HAVE A HIGH
OVER THE BOOT-HEEL OF MISSOURI AND A LOW CENTER LOCATED OVER THE
GEORGES BANK. A WEAK COOL FRONT IS EXTENDING AS A TROUGH OUT OF THAT
LOW OVER THE MID SOUTH. WEAK ZONAL FLOW AT 500 MB WILL HOST A SERIES
OF SMALL PERTURBATIONS ALONG THAT FRONT WHICH WILL APPROACH OUR
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
FORM ALONG IT LATE THIS MORNING OVER SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND
EVENTUALLY REACH THE COAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION ALONG
THE COAST WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND
TAPER OFF AFTER SUNSET THROUGH THIS EVENING BECOMING CONCENTRATED
MORE OVER THE GULF WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST. BRIEF
PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING ESPECIALLY IN PLACES WHERE HEAVY RAIN TODAY IS FOLLOWED BY
CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT. WE EXPECT THE EVAPOTRANSPORATION PROCESS
TO OCCUR IN THESE PLACES AS WELL AS EVAPORATION FROM FOLIAGE TO
RAISE DEWPOINTS. SATURATION WOULD THEN OCCUR WHEN RADIATION
COOLING...LIGHT WIND...AND A NEAR SURFACE INVERSION FORMS INCREASING
THE RISK OF LOWERED VISIBILITY. MUCH OF OUR RAINFALL FORECAST IS
BASED ON THE OUTPUTS OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION NON HYDROSTATIC
MODELS...VIS-A-VIS THE HRRR AND WRF...BECAUSE OF THE DETAIL THEY
PROVIDE AND FAVORABLE PERFORMANCE THEY HAVE SHOWN RECENTLY. WE
CONSIDER A QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH QPF AND A POP 50% AS HIGH AS WE
ARE WILLING TO OFFER FOR THE MOMENT....BUT UPDATES MAY BE
FORTHCOMING LATER TODAY ONCE THE RADAR PICTURE BECOMES MORE CLEAR.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S...GENERALLY COOLER TO THE
NORTH AND MAXIMIZING ALONG THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR. LOWS WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 60S ALONG THE COAST AND DECREASING TO NEAR 60 OVER OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES. /77

UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS MOVES EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CANADIAN
PROVINCES/NORTHEAST US DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WITH HIGH LEVEL FLOW
FLATTENING (BECOMING NEARLY ZONAL...WEST TO EAST) OVER THE SOUTHERN
US. SURFACE FRONT EASES INTO THE NORTHERN GULF...PRETTY FAR SOUTH
THIS TIME OF YEAR...BUT BEGINS TO STALL ACROSS THE MOUTH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS OVER PORTIONS
OF INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND COASTAL SOUTHWEST ALABAMA
FRIDAY JUST A BIT CLOSER TO BOUNDARY. ELSEWHERE...CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE MINIMAL AS THE BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH BRINGS IN
A DEEPER DRIER AIRMASS. DAYTIME HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE LOWER HALF OF
THE 80S...NOT TOO FAR OFF PACE WITH CLIMATOLOGY. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE LOWER HALF OF THE 60S INTERIOR TO UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S COAST. /10

.LONG TERM [SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE
EVOLVING UPPER AIR PATTERN HEADING INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE MEMORIAL
DAY WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM SHARPENS AS IT HEADS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS CAUSES
DOWNSTREAM RIDGE TO BEGIN AMPLIFYING FROM THE GULF...NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN US. WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT...RAIN CHANCES ARE LOW
FOR SATURDAY. THINGS BEGIN TO CHANGE BY SUNDAY. WITH AN EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE HIGH LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ON SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY AT THE BASE OF LONGWAVE TROF...EJECTS NORTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN
TEXAS TO WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. WITH TROF...TAPPING
DEEPER GULF MOISTURE THAT WILL BE EXPANDING NORTHWARD...CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS BEGIN TO TREND UPWARD ON SUNDAY. THE POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR AN UNSETTLED PERIOD EXTENDING INTO MEMORIAL DAY AND BEYOND
AS WELL. THE PASSAGE OF A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES IN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WHERE DEEP MOISTURE PERSISTS BETWEEN A LARGE
SCALE RIDGE TO THE EAST AND TROF AXIS OVER THE PLAINS...WILL MAINTAIN
CHANCES OF DAILY SHOWERS/STORMS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

UNFORTUNATELY FOR MEMORIAL DAY FAMILY GET TOGETHERS...SOME OF THE
STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO BRIEFLY SEVERE AT TIMES...BRINGING STRONG
WIND GUSTS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS. DAYTIME
HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 86 TO 91 OVER THE INTERIOR. OVER
THE BEACHES...CLOSER PROXIMITY TO GULF KEEPS HIGHS IN THE LOWER HALF
OF THE 80S. WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BECOMING FIRMLY ESTABLISHED
FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO THE EASTERN US...OVERNIGHT LOWS
MODERATE BACK INTO THE LOWER/MID 70S LATE IN THE WEEKEND...CONTINUING
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. /10

&&

.AVIATION...
21.12Z...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD
THROUGHOUT THE REGION EXCEPT ALONG A WEAK FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM ALONG IT
AFTER 21.16Z OVER SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND EVENTUALLY REACH THE
COAST BY 21.18Z. CONVECTION ALONG THE COAST WILL BE CONSIDERABLY MORE
ACTIVE AND CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 22.00Z. WE
EXPECT CONVECTION TO DECREASE AFTER SUNSET AND CONCENTRATE MORE OVER
THE GULF WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST. BRIEF PATCHY FOG IS
POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. /77

&&

.MARINE...A HIGH WILL DOMINATE THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF TONIGHT AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN
GULF THIS EVENING BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND
LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND IT. THE WIND WILL VEER NORTHEAST AND
BECOME SOUTHEAST BY SATURDAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES FURTHER EAST THIS
WEEKEND...THE WIND WILL STRENGTHEN TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS OVER THE GULF
AND SEAS WILL INCREASE...APPROACHING 6 FEET OFFSHORE. THE SWAN WAS
IN PRETTY CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE GWW AND THE WNA WAVE MODELS AS
WELL AS THE BRETSCHNEIDER APPROACH. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER
NEAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. /77

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      87  66  83  67  87 /  50  30  20  10  10
PENSACOLA   88  67  83  70  86 /  50  20  10  05  10
DESTIN      87  68  82  72  84 /  40  20  05  05  10
EVERGREEN   87  60  83  63  90 /  40  10  10  05  10
WAYNESBORO  86  60  82  63  88 /  40  10  10  05  10
CAMDEN      85  60  81  62  88 /  30  10  10  05  10
CRESTVIEW   91  63  85  65  89 /  40  20  05  05  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMOB 210444 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...AVIATION UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1140 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.AVIATION...
21.06Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION...VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. A BRIEF PERIOD OF PATCHY
FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WITH VCTS AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH 22.00Z. /13

&&

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT AND FRIDAY]...
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED
WITHIN ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. LINE OF STRONG CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST MS AND INTERIOR SOUTHWEST AL
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
BRING CONVECTION SOUTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHWEST AL WITH ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT INTO THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE PANHANDLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE COVERAGE GRADUALLY
DIMINISHES. MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT A FEW STRONG AND PERHAPS ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE PRIMARY CONCERN BEING STRONG WIND GUSTS
OVER 45 MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND WILL
STALL NEAR THE COAST THURSDAY. A LINGERING LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH TONIGHT. AN AXIS
OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STRETCH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY...WHICH WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WILL KEEP THE BEST CHANCES FOCUSED OVER SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWFA. AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 1500-2000
J/KG WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE STORMS TUESDAY WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
HEAVY RAIN THE MAIN THREATS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS TO PERSIST. /21

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...OFFSHORE FLOW AND COOLER...DRIER AIR
WILL FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHWARD NEAR THE
COAST. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST DEPENDING ON
THE SOUTHWARD SPEED OF THE FRONT...SUSPECT IT WILL BE OVER THE MARINE
AREA BY EARLY EVENING THURSDAY. EXPECT A RELATIVELY PLEASANT COOL
MORNING FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S MOST
AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL
WITH MOST SITES PEAKING OUT IN THE MID 80S. SPOTTY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE COAST AS ENOUGH OF A NORTHERLY
GRADIENT TO KEEP THE SEA BREEZE CONFINED TO THE COAST FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. /08 JW

.LONG TERM [FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...EXPECT ANOTHER COOL
MORNING SATURDAY AS A LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW
PREVAILS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC SEA BOARD
CONTINUES TO RIDGE SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE REGION. AS THE SURFACE HIGH
SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPS AND ALOFT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO AMPLIFY. THE
INCREASED SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL LIMIT CONVECTION BUT ENOUGH AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY AND A DEEP ENOUGH SEA BREEZE EXPECTED TO TRIGGER SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR DURING THE
AFTERNOON. RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD ALOFT BUT THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS
EASTWARD OPENING UP REGION TO UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH ENERGY SO
EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SEA BREEZE FRONT EACH
DAY AND LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS. DAYTIME HIGHS AND LOWS WILL
GENERALLY TREND A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN CLIMATOLOGY AFTER SATURDAY
MORNING. /08 JW

&&

.MARINE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRETCH ACROSS THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM
THE NORTH. THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN GULF THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY WITH MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT
FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHEASTERN
STATES FRIDAY BEFORE BECOMING FOCUSED OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD THIS
WEEKEND. FLOW BECOMES OFFSHORE LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING
BEFORE INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW SETS UP ALONG WITH INCREASING
SEAS THIS WEEKEND. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE LOCALLY HIGHER NEAR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. /21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      69  90  64  85  63 /  40  50  20  20  10
PENSACOLA   74  89  67  85  67 /  20  40  20  20  05
DESTIN      75  86  68  83  69 /  20  30  20  20  05
EVERGREEN   68  89  62  86  61 /  40  40  10  10  05
WAYNESBORO  68  85  61  84  61 /  50  40  10  10  05
CAMDEN      68  85  63  83  61 /  50  30  10  10  05
CRESTVIEW   69  92  62  87  61 /  30  40  10  20  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMOB 210444 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...AVIATION UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1140 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.AVIATION...
21.06Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION...VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. A BRIEF PERIOD OF PATCHY
FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WITH VCTS AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH 22.00Z. /13

&&

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT AND FRIDAY]...
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED
WITHIN ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. LINE OF STRONG CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST MS AND INTERIOR SOUTHWEST AL
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
BRING CONVECTION SOUTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHWEST AL WITH ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT INTO THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE PANHANDLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE COVERAGE GRADUALLY
DIMINISHES. MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT A FEW STRONG AND PERHAPS ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE PRIMARY CONCERN BEING STRONG WIND GUSTS
OVER 45 MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND WILL
STALL NEAR THE COAST THURSDAY. A LINGERING LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH TONIGHT. AN AXIS
OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STRETCH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY...WHICH WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WILL KEEP THE BEST CHANCES FOCUSED OVER SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWFA. AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 1500-2000
J/KG WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE STORMS TUESDAY WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
HEAVY RAIN THE MAIN THREATS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS TO PERSIST. /21

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...OFFSHORE FLOW AND COOLER...DRIER AIR
WILL FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHWARD NEAR THE
COAST. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST DEPENDING ON
THE SOUTHWARD SPEED OF THE FRONT...SUSPECT IT WILL BE OVER THE MARINE
AREA BY EARLY EVENING THURSDAY. EXPECT A RELATIVELY PLEASANT COOL
MORNING FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S MOST
AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL
WITH MOST SITES PEAKING OUT IN THE MID 80S. SPOTTY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE COAST AS ENOUGH OF A NORTHERLY
GRADIENT TO KEEP THE SEA BREEZE CONFINED TO THE COAST FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. /08 JW

.LONG TERM [FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...EXPECT ANOTHER COOL
MORNING SATURDAY AS A LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW
PREVAILS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC SEA BOARD
CONTINUES TO RIDGE SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE REGION. AS THE SURFACE HIGH
SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPS AND ALOFT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO AMPLIFY. THE
INCREASED SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL LIMIT CONVECTION BUT ENOUGH AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY AND A DEEP ENOUGH SEA BREEZE EXPECTED TO TRIGGER SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR DURING THE
AFTERNOON. RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD ALOFT BUT THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS
EASTWARD OPENING UP REGION TO UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH ENERGY SO
EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SEA BREEZE FRONT EACH
DAY AND LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS. DAYTIME HIGHS AND LOWS WILL
GENERALLY TREND A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN CLIMATOLOGY AFTER SATURDAY
MORNING. /08 JW

&&

.MARINE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRETCH ACROSS THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM
THE NORTH. THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN GULF THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY WITH MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT
FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHEASTERN
STATES FRIDAY BEFORE BECOMING FOCUSED OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD THIS
WEEKEND. FLOW BECOMES OFFSHORE LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING
BEFORE INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW SETS UP ALONG WITH INCREASING
SEAS THIS WEEKEND. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE LOCALLY HIGHER NEAR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. /21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      69  90  64  85  63 /  40  50  20  20  10
PENSACOLA   74  89  67  85  67 /  20  40  20  20  05
DESTIN      75  86  68  83  69 /  20  30  20  20  05
EVERGREEN   68  89  62  86  61 /  40  40  10  10  05
WAYNESBORO  68  85  61  84  61 /  50  40  10  10  05
CAMDEN      68  85  63  83  61 /  50  30  10  10  05
CRESTVIEW   69  92  62  87  61 /  30  40  10  20  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 202124
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
424 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT AND FRIDAY]...
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED
WITHIN ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. LINE OF STRONG CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST MS AND INTERIOR SOUTHWEST AL
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
BRING CONVECTION SOUTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHWEST AL WITH ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT INTO THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE PANHANDLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE COVERAGE GRADUALLY
DIMINISHES. MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT A FEW STRONG AND PERHAPS ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE PRIMARY CONCERN BEING STRONG WIND GUSTS
OVER 45 MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND WILL
STALL NEAR THE COAST THURSDAY. A LINGERING LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH TONIGHT. AN AXIS
OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STRETCH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY...WHICH WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WILL KEEP THE BEST CHANCES FOCUSED OVER SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWFA. AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 1500-2000
J/KG WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE STORMS TUESDAY WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
HEAVY RAIN THE MAIN THREATS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS TO PERSIST. /21

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...OFFSHORE FLOW AND COOLER...DRIER AIR
WILL FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHWARD NEAR THE
COAST. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST DEPENDING ON
THE SOUTHWARD SPEED OF THE FRONT...SUSPECT IT WILL BE OVER THE MARINE
AREA BY EARLY EVENING THURSDAY. EXPECT A RELATIVELY PLEASANT COOL
MORNING FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S MOST
AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL
WITH MOST SITES PEAKING OUT IN THE MID 80S. SPOTTY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE COAST AS ENOUGH OF A NORTHERLY
GRADIENT TO KEEP THE SEA BREEZE CONFINED TO THE COAST FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. /08 JW

.LONG TERM [FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...EXPECT ANOTHER COOL
MORNING SATURDAY AS A LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW
PREVAILS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC SEA BOARD
CONTINUES TO RIDGE SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE REGION. AS THE SURFACE HIGH
SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPS AND ALOFT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO AMPLIFY. THE
INCREASED SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL LIMIT CONVECTION BUT ENOUGH AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY AND A DEEP ENOUGH SEA BREEZE EXPECTED TO TRIGGER SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR DURING THE
AFTERNOON. RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD ALOFT BUT THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS
EASTWARD OPENING UP REGION TO UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH ENERGY SO
EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SEA BREEZE FRONT EACH
DAY AND LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS. DAYTIME HIGHS AND LOWS WILL
GENERALLY TREND A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN CLIMATOLOGY AFTER SATURDAY
MORNING. /08 JW

&&

.AVIATION... 20.18Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION... VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION. SCATTERED TO OCCASIONALLY
BROKEN CUMULUS FIELDS WITH BASES AROUND 4000 FT AGL WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SCATTERED TSRA WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. BRIEF STRONG/GUSTY WINDS AND IFR
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS DUE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR
STORMS. LOCALIZED MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND MVFR VIS COULD DEVELOP OVER
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MS AND SOUTHWEST AL EARLY THURSDAY AM. CONFIDENCE
ON OCCURRENCE WAS LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP MENTION OUT OF LOCAL TAF/S. /21


&&

.MARINE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRETCH ACROSS THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM
THE NORTH. THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN GULF THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY WITH MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT
FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHEASTERN
STATES FRIDAY BEFORE BECOMING FOCUSED OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD THIS
WEEKEND. FLOW BECOMES OFFSHORE LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING
BEFORE INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW SETS UP ALONG WITH INCREASING
SEAS THIS WEEKEND. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE LOCALLY HIGHER NEAR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. /21


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      69  90  64  85  63 /  40  50  20  20  10
PENSACOLA   74  89  67  85  67 /  20  40  20  20  05
DESTIN      75  86  68  83  69 /  20  30  20  20  05
EVERGREEN   68  89  62  86  61 /  40  40  10  10  05
WAYNESBORO  68  85  61  84  61 /  50  40  10  10  05
CAMDEN      68  85  63  83  61 /  50  30  10  10  05
CRESTVIEW   69  92  62  87  61 /  30  40  10  20  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMOB 202124
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
424 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT AND FRIDAY]...
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED
WITHIN ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. LINE OF STRONG CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST MS AND INTERIOR SOUTHWEST AL
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
BRING CONVECTION SOUTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHWEST AL WITH ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT INTO THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE PANHANDLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE COVERAGE GRADUALLY
DIMINISHES. MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT A FEW STRONG AND PERHAPS ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE PRIMARY CONCERN BEING STRONG WIND GUSTS
OVER 45 MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND WILL
STALL NEAR THE COAST THURSDAY. A LINGERING LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH TONIGHT. AN AXIS
OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STRETCH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY...WHICH WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WILL KEEP THE BEST CHANCES FOCUSED OVER SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWFA. AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 1500-2000
J/KG WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE STORMS TUESDAY WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
HEAVY RAIN THE MAIN THREATS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS TO PERSIST. /21

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...OFFSHORE FLOW AND COOLER...DRIER AIR
WILL FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHWARD NEAR THE
COAST. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST DEPENDING ON
THE SOUTHWARD SPEED OF THE FRONT...SUSPECT IT WILL BE OVER THE MARINE
AREA BY EARLY EVENING THURSDAY. EXPECT A RELATIVELY PLEASANT COOL
MORNING FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S MOST
AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL
WITH MOST SITES PEAKING OUT IN THE MID 80S. SPOTTY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE COAST AS ENOUGH OF A NORTHERLY
GRADIENT TO KEEP THE SEA BREEZE CONFINED TO THE COAST FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. /08 JW

.LONG TERM [FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...EXPECT ANOTHER COOL
MORNING SATURDAY AS A LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW
PREVAILS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC SEA BOARD
CONTINUES TO RIDGE SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE REGION. AS THE SURFACE HIGH
SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPS AND ALOFT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO AMPLIFY. THE
INCREASED SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL LIMIT CONVECTION BUT ENOUGH AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY AND A DEEP ENOUGH SEA BREEZE EXPECTED TO TRIGGER SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR DURING THE
AFTERNOON. RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD ALOFT BUT THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS
EASTWARD OPENING UP REGION TO UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH ENERGY SO
EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SEA BREEZE FRONT EACH
DAY AND LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS. DAYTIME HIGHS AND LOWS WILL
GENERALLY TREND A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN CLIMATOLOGY AFTER SATURDAY
MORNING. /08 JW

&&

.AVIATION... 20.18Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION... VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION. SCATTERED TO OCCASIONALLY
BROKEN CUMULUS FIELDS WITH BASES AROUND 4000 FT AGL WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SCATTERED TSRA WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. BRIEF STRONG/GUSTY WINDS AND IFR
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS DUE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR
STORMS. LOCALIZED MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND MVFR VIS COULD DEVELOP OVER
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MS AND SOUTHWEST AL EARLY THURSDAY AM. CONFIDENCE
ON OCCURRENCE WAS LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP MENTION OUT OF LOCAL TAF/S. /21


&&

.MARINE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRETCH ACROSS THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM
THE NORTH. THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN GULF THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY WITH MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT
FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHEASTERN
STATES FRIDAY BEFORE BECOMING FOCUSED OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD THIS
WEEKEND. FLOW BECOMES OFFSHORE LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING
BEFORE INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW SETS UP ALONG WITH INCREASING
SEAS THIS WEEKEND. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE LOCALLY HIGHER NEAR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. /21


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      69  90  64  85  63 /  40  50  20  20  10
PENSACOLA   74  89  67  85  67 /  20  40  20  20  05
DESTIN      75  86  68  83  69 /  20  30  20  20  05
EVERGREEN   68  89  62  86  61 /  40  40  10  10  05
WAYNESBORO  68  85  61  84  61 /  50  40  10  10  05
CAMDEN      68  85  63  83  61 /  50  30  10  10  05
CRESTVIEW   69  92  62  87  61 /  30  40  10  20  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 201807 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
107 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.UPDATE...
EARLY AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TOWERING CUMULUS
ALONG THE ADVANCING SEABREEZE BOUNDARY NEAR THE COAST...WHILE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE MEANWHILE DEVELOPING FARTHER WEST
ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF MS. THE LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH BRINGING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE FROM THE WEST ACROSS INTERIOR AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT
CONTINUING ALONG THE SEABREEZE. WE HAVE OPTED TO INCREASE POPS A BIT
THIS AFTERNOON. THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK. /21

&&

.AVIATION...
20.18Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION. SCATTERED
TO OCCASIONALLY BROKEN CUMULUS FIELDS WITH BASES AROUND 4000 FT AGL
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SCATTERED TSRA WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. BRIEF STRONG/GUSTY WINDS AND IFR
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS DUE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR STORMS.
LOCALIZED MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND MVFR VIS COULD DEVELOP OVER INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST MS AND SOUTHWEST AL EARLY THURSDAY AM. CONFIDENCE ON
OCCURRENCE WAS LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP MENTION OUT OF LOCAL TAF/S. /21

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 519 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015/

SHORT TERM [TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT]...EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OCCURRING OVER MOST INLAND AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
I-10 CORRIDOR. TO THE WEST LATEST SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW THE NEXT MID
LEVEL IMPULSE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST COMBINED WITH SLIGHTLY DEEPER
MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY ALONG WITH SFC
BASED CAPES RANGING FROM 2000 TO 2800 J/KG BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY POSSIBLY LEADING TO MORE STATEMENTS BY LATE AFTERNOON OR
EARLY EVENING. LIKE EARLIER IN THE WEEK WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS
STILL NOT ANTICIPATED THOUGH WE CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLY BECOMING BRIEFLY SEVERE. GUSTY STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND PERIODS OF VERY HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WILL LIKELY SEE
MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS EARLY IN THE DAY FOLLOWED BY INCREASING CLOUDS
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. COULD STILL SEE SOME PATCHY FOG ALSO THIS
MORNING THOUGH NOT AS MUCH COVERAGE AS YESTERDAY. AS FOR TEMPS WILL
LEAN VERY CLOSE TO THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE THROUGH TONIGHT DUE TO
MOSTLY FROM PERSISTENCE. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE MID TO UPPER 80S CLOSE TO THE
COAST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND
THE LOWER 70S CLOSER TO THE COAST. 32/EE

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WEAK COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH
FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY...APPROACHING THE COAST BY AFTERNOON.
THE FRONT INTERACTS WITH A NARROW STRIP OF DEEP MOISTURE AND ALONG
WITH DAYTIME INSTABILITY...SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS ARE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES. THE
NORTHERN TIER OF ZONES...LOOK TO BE ISOLATED IN COVERAGE. DAYTIME
HIGHS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S INTERIOR. MID 80S CLOSER TO
THE BEACHES.

LONG TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]...UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM
ADVANCING ACROSS THE WESTERN US ON FRIDAY...SHARPENS ACROSS THE
ROCKIES OVER THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. THIS RESULTS IN AMPLIFICATION
OF DOWNSTREAM UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF. WILL MAINTAIN ISOLATED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS ON FRIDAY...BUT WITH BUILDING RIDGE AND
BETTER SINKING MOTIONS ON SATURDAY...CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS APPEAR
MINIMAL (AT OR LESS THAN 10%). SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLIPS EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY THROUGH
MEMORIAL DAY...CAUSING DEEP GULF MOISTURE TO EXPAND NORTHWARD OFF THE
GULF. UNFORTUNATELY...BARBECUES ON SUNDAY AND MEMORIAL DAY MAY BE
BRIEFLY INTERRUPTED BY SCATTERED DAILY SHOWERS/STORMS. THE POSITION
OF THE RIDGE AXIS TO THE EAST PUTS THE LOCAL AREA IN A FAVORED ZONE
WHERE MID LEVEL IMPULSES MOVE OUT OF EAST TEXAS AND UP ACROSS THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. A BETTER ESTABLISHED SURFACE HIGH
FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO THE SOUTHEAST SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL
FOR BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW AT TIMES MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

DAYTIME HIGHS LOOK TO RANGE FROM 86 TO 91 OVER THE INTERIOR...LOWER
HALF OF THE 80S CLOSER TO BEACHES. OVERNIGHT LOWS MODERATE BACK INTO
THE LOWER/MID 70S BY THE LATTER END OF THE OUTLOOK. /10

MARINE...SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO BE MAINTAINED OVER THE
NORTH CENTRAL GULF THROUGH TONIGHT THEN BECOME REINFORCED THU THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK IN RESPONSE TO A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF EARLY THU FOLLOWED BY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD AND WESTERN ATLANTIC...STRETCHING WEST. A
MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT LATE THU
THROUGH EARLY FRI MORNING. A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
BECOME REESTABLISHED OVER THE WEEKEND THEN BUILD LATE SUN THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES GENERALLY FROM
NORTH TO THE SOUTH. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      89  69  90  65  85 /  40  30  50  20  20
PENSACOLA   89  73  89  69  85 /  30  20  40  20  20
DESTIN      89  75  87  71  85 /  30  20  40  20  10
EVERGREEN   90  69  91  62  86 /  40  40  30  10  10
WAYNESBORO  89  68  87  62  84 /  50  40  30  10  10
CAMDEN      89  69  87  62  83 /  40  40  20  10  10
CRESTVIEW   92  70  93  66  88 /  30  30  40  10  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 201807 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
107 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.UPDATE...
EARLY AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TOWERING CUMULUS
ALONG THE ADVANCING SEABREEZE BOUNDARY NEAR THE COAST...WHILE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE MEANWHILE DEVELOPING FARTHER WEST
ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF MS. THE LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH BRINGING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE FROM THE WEST ACROSS INTERIOR AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT
CONTINUING ALONG THE SEABREEZE. WE HAVE OPTED TO INCREASE POPS A BIT
THIS AFTERNOON. THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK. /21

&&

.AVIATION...
20.18Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION. SCATTERED
TO OCCASIONALLY BROKEN CUMULUS FIELDS WITH BASES AROUND 4000 FT AGL
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SCATTERED TSRA WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. BRIEF STRONG/GUSTY WINDS AND IFR
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS DUE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR STORMS.
LOCALIZED MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND MVFR VIS COULD DEVELOP OVER INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST MS AND SOUTHWEST AL EARLY THURSDAY AM. CONFIDENCE ON
OCCURRENCE WAS LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP MENTION OUT OF LOCAL TAF/S. /21

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 519 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015/

SHORT TERM [TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT]...EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OCCURRING OVER MOST INLAND AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
I-10 CORRIDOR. TO THE WEST LATEST SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW THE NEXT MID
LEVEL IMPULSE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST COMBINED WITH SLIGHTLY DEEPER
MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY ALONG WITH SFC
BASED CAPES RANGING FROM 2000 TO 2800 J/KG BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY POSSIBLY LEADING TO MORE STATEMENTS BY LATE AFTERNOON OR
EARLY EVENING. LIKE EARLIER IN THE WEEK WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS
STILL NOT ANTICIPATED THOUGH WE CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLY BECOMING BRIEFLY SEVERE. GUSTY STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND PERIODS OF VERY HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WILL LIKELY SEE
MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS EARLY IN THE DAY FOLLOWED BY INCREASING CLOUDS
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. COULD STILL SEE SOME PATCHY FOG ALSO THIS
MORNING THOUGH NOT AS MUCH COVERAGE AS YESTERDAY. AS FOR TEMPS WILL
LEAN VERY CLOSE TO THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE THROUGH TONIGHT DUE TO
MOSTLY FROM PERSISTENCE. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE MID TO UPPER 80S CLOSE TO THE
COAST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND
THE LOWER 70S CLOSER TO THE COAST. 32/EE

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WEAK COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH
FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY...APPROACHING THE COAST BY AFTERNOON.
THE FRONT INTERACTS WITH A NARROW STRIP OF DEEP MOISTURE AND ALONG
WITH DAYTIME INSTABILITY...SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS ARE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES. THE
NORTHERN TIER OF ZONES...LOOK TO BE ISOLATED IN COVERAGE. DAYTIME
HIGHS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S INTERIOR. MID 80S CLOSER TO
THE BEACHES.

LONG TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]...UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM
ADVANCING ACROSS THE WESTERN US ON FRIDAY...SHARPENS ACROSS THE
ROCKIES OVER THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. THIS RESULTS IN AMPLIFICATION
OF DOWNSTREAM UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF. WILL MAINTAIN ISOLATED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS ON FRIDAY...BUT WITH BUILDING RIDGE AND
BETTER SINKING MOTIONS ON SATURDAY...CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS APPEAR
MINIMAL (AT OR LESS THAN 10%). SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLIPS EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY THROUGH
MEMORIAL DAY...CAUSING DEEP GULF MOISTURE TO EXPAND NORTHWARD OFF THE
GULF. UNFORTUNATELY...BARBECUES ON SUNDAY AND MEMORIAL DAY MAY BE
BRIEFLY INTERRUPTED BY SCATTERED DAILY SHOWERS/STORMS. THE POSITION
OF THE RIDGE AXIS TO THE EAST PUTS THE LOCAL AREA IN A FAVORED ZONE
WHERE MID LEVEL IMPULSES MOVE OUT OF EAST TEXAS AND UP ACROSS THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. A BETTER ESTABLISHED SURFACE HIGH
FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO THE SOUTHEAST SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL
FOR BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW AT TIMES MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

DAYTIME HIGHS LOOK TO RANGE FROM 86 TO 91 OVER THE INTERIOR...LOWER
HALF OF THE 80S CLOSER TO BEACHES. OVERNIGHT LOWS MODERATE BACK INTO
THE LOWER/MID 70S BY THE LATTER END OF THE OUTLOOK. /10

MARINE...SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO BE MAINTAINED OVER THE
NORTH CENTRAL GULF THROUGH TONIGHT THEN BECOME REINFORCED THU THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK IN RESPONSE TO A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF EARLY THU FOLLOWED BY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD AND WESTERN ATLANTIC...STRETCHING WEST. A
MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT LATE THU
THROUGH EARLY FRI MORNING. A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
BECOME REESTABLISHED OVER THE WEEKEND THEN BUILD LATE SUN THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES GENERALLY FROM
NORTH TO THE SOUTH. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      89  69  90  65  85 /  40  30  50  20  20
PENSACOLA   89  73  89  69  85 /  30  20  40  20  20
DESTIN      89  75  87  71  85 /  30  20  40  20  10
EVERGREEN   90  69  91  62  86 /  40  40  30  10  10
WAYNESBORO  89  68  87  62  84 /  50  40  30  10  10
CAMDEN      89  69  87  62  83 /  40  40  20  10  10
CRESTVIEW   92  70  93  66  88 /  30  30  40  10  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMOB 201019
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
519 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SHORT TERM [TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT]...EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OCCURRING OVER MOST INLAND AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
I-10 CORRIDOR. TO THE WEST LATEST SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW THE NEXT MID
LEVEL IMPULSE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST COMBINED WITH SLIGHTLY DEEPER
MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY ALONG WITH SFC
BASED CAPES RANGING FROM 2000 TO 2800 J/KG BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY POSSIBLY LEADING TO MORE STATEMENTS BY LATE AFTERNOON OR
EARLY EVENING. LIKE EARLIER IN THE WEEK WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS
STILL NOT ANTICIPATED THOUGH WE CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLY BECOMING BRIEFLY SEVERE. GUSTY STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND PERIODS OF VERY HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WILL LIKELY SEE
MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS EARLY IN THE DAY FOLLOWED BY INCREASING CLOUDS
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. COULD STILL SEE SOME PATCHY FOG ALSO THIS
MORNING THOUGH NOT AS MUCH COVERAGE AS YESTERDAY. AS FOR TEMPS WILL
LEAN VERY CLOSE TO THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE THROUGH TONIGHT DUE TO
MOSTLY FROM PERSISTENCE. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE MID TO UPPER 80S CLOSE TO THE
COAST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND
THE LOWER 70S CLOSER TO THE COAST. 32/EE

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WEAK COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH
FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY...APPROACHING THE COAST BY AFTERNOON.
THE FRONT INTERACTS WITH A NARROW STRIP OF DEEP MOISTURE AND ALONG
WITH DAYTIME INSTABILITY...SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS ARE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES. THE
NORTHERN TIER OF ZONES...LOOK TO BE ISOLATED IN COVERAGE. DAYTIME
HIGHS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S INTERIOR. MID 80S CLOSER TO
THE BEACHES.

.LONG TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]...UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM
ADVANCING ACROSS THE WESTERN US ON FRIDAY...SHARPENS ACROSS THE
ROCKIES OVER THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. THIS RESULTS IN AMPLIFICATION
OF DOWNSTREAM UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF. WILL MAINTAIN ISOLATED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS ON FRIDAY...BUT WITH BUILDING RIDGE AND
BETTER SINKING MOTIONS ON SATURDAY...CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS APPEAR
MINIMAL (AT OR LESS THAN 10%). SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLIPS EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY THROUGH
MEMORIAL DAY...CAUSING DEEP GULF MOISTURE TO EXPAND NORTHWARD OFF THE
GULF. UNFORTUNATELY...BARBECUES ON SUNDAY AND MEMORIAL DAY MAY BE
BRIEFLY INTERRUPTED BY SCATTERED DAILY SHOWERS/STORMS. THE POSITION
OF THE RIDGE AXIS TO THE EAST PUTS THE LOCAL AREA IN A FAVORED ZONE
WHERE MID LEVEL IMPULSES MOVE OUT OF EAST TEXAS AND UP ACROSS THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. A BETTER ESTABLISHED SURFACE HIGH
FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO THE SOUTHEAST SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL
FOR BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW AT TIMES MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

DAYTIME HIGHS LOOK TO RANGE FROM 86 TO 91 OVER THE INTERIOR...LOWER
HALF OF THE 80S CLOSER TO BEACHES. OVERNIGHT LOWS MODERATE BACK INTO
THE LOWER/MID 70S BY THE LATTER END OF THE OUTLOOK. /10

&&

.AVIATION...
20.12Z ISSUANCE...MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES
EARLY THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY MVFR TO VFR CIGS THROUGH 21.12Z.
COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES IN AND AROUND
HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY SOUTHWEST AT 6 TO 10 KNOTS THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING DIMINISHING TO 3 TO 5 KNOTS LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. 32/EE

&&

.MARINE...SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO BE MAINTAINED OVER THE
NORTH CENTRAL GULF THROUGH TONIGHT THEN BECOME REINFORCED THU
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK IN RESPONSE TO A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF EARLY THU FOLLOWED BY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD AND WESTERN ATLANTIC...STRETCHING WEST.
A MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT LATE
THU THROUGH EARLY FRI MORNING. A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL BECOME REESTABLISHED OVER THE WEEKEND THEN BUILD LATE SUN
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES GENERALLY
FROM NORTH TO THE SOUTH. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      89  69  90  65  85 /  30  30  50  20  20
PENSACOLA   89  73  89  69  85 /  20  20  40  20  20
DESTIN      89  75  87  71  85 /  20  20  40  20  10
EVERGREEN   90  69  91  62  86 /  30  30  30  10  10
WAYNESBORO  89  68  87  62  84 /  30  30  30  10  10
CAMDEN      89  69  87  62  83 /  30  30  20  10  10
CRESTVIEW   92  70  93  66  88 /  30  30  40  10  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 201019
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
519 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SHORT TERM [TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT]...EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OCCURRING OVER MOST INLAND AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
I-10 CORRIDOR. TO THE WEST LATEST SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW THE NEXT MID
LEVEL IMPULSE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST COMBINED WITH SLIGHTLY DEEPER
MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY ALONG WITH SFC
BASED CAPES RANGING FROM 2000 TO 2800 J/KG BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY POSSIBLY LEADING TO MORE STATEMENTS BY LATE AFTERNOON OR
EARLY EVENING. LIKE EARLIER IN THE WEEK WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS
STILL NOT ANTICIPATED THOUGH WE CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLY BECOMING BRIEFLY SEVERE. GUSTY STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND PERIODS OF VERY HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WILL LIKELY SEE
MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS EARLY IN THE DAY FOLLOWED BY INCREASING CLOUDS
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. COULD STILL SEE SOME PATCHY FOG ALSO THIS
MORNING THOUGH NOT AS MUCH COVERAGE AS YESTERDAY. AS FOR TEMPS WILL
LEAN VERY CLOSE TO THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE THROUGH TONIGHT DUE TO
MOSTLY FROM PERSISTENCE. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE MID TO UPPER 80S CLOSE TO THE
COAST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND
THE LOWER 70S CLOSER TO THE COAST. 32/EE

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WEAK COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH
FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY...APPROACHING THE COAST BY AFTERNOON.
THE FRONT INTERACTS WITH A NARROW STRIP OF DEEP MOISTURE AND ALONG
WITH DAYTIME INSTABILITY...SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS ARE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES. THE
NORTHERN TIER OF ZONES...LOOK TO BE ISOLATED IN COVERAGE. DAYTIME
HIGHS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S INTERIOR. MID 80S CLOSER TO
THE BEACHES.

.LONG TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]...UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM
ADVANCING ACROSS THE WESTERN US ON FRIDAY...SHARPENS ACROSS THE
ROCKIES OVER THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. THIS RESULTS IN AMPLIFICATION
OF DOWNSTREAM UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF. WILL MAINTAIN ISOLATED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS ON FRIDAY...BUT WITH BUILDING RIDGE AND
BETTER SINKING MOTIONS ON SATURDAY...CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS APPEAR
MINIMAL (AT OR LESS THAN 10%). SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLIPS EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY THROUGH
MEMORIAL DAY...CAUSING DEEP GULF MOISTURE TO EXPAND NORTHWARD OFF THE
GULF. UNFORTUNATELY...BARBECUES ON SUNDAY AND MEMORIAL DAY MAY BE
BRIEFLY INTERRUPTED BY SCATTERED DAILY SHOWERS/STORMS. THE POSITION
OF THE RIDGE AXIS TO THE EAST PUTS THE LOCAL AREA IN A FAVORED ZONE
WHERE MID LEVEL IMPULSES MOVE OUT OF EAST TEXAS AND UP ACROSS THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. A BETTER ESTABLISHED SURFACE HIGH
FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO THE SOUTHEAST SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL
FOR BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW AT TIMES MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

DAYTIME HIGHS LOOK TO RANGE FROM 86 TO 91 OVER THE INTERIOR...LOWER
HALF OF THE 80S CLOSER TO BEACHES. OVERNIGHT LOWS MODERATE BACK INTO
THE LOWER/MID 70S BY THE LATTER END OF THE OUTLOOK. /10

&&

.AVIATION...
20.12Z ISSUANCE...MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES
EARLY THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY MVFR TO VFR CIGS THROUGH 21.12Z.
COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES IN AND AROUND
HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY SOUTHWEST AT 6 TO 10 KNOTS THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING DIMINISHING TO 3 TO 5 KNOTS LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. 32/EE

&&

.MARINE...SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO BE MAINTAINED OVER THE
NORTH CENTRAL GULF THROUGH TONIGHT THEN BECOME REINFORCED THU
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK IN RESPONSE TO A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF EARLY THU FOLLOWED BY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD AND WESTERN ATLANTIC...STRETCHING WEST.
A MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT LATE
THU THROUGH EARLY FRI MORNING. A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL BECOME REESTABLISHED OVER THE WEEKEND THEN BUILD LATE SUN
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES GENERALLY
FROM NORTH TO THE SOUTH. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      89  69  90  65  85 /  30  30  50  20  20
PENSACOLA   89  73  89  69  85 /  20  20  40  20  20
DESTIN      89  75  87  71  85 /  20  20  40  20  10
EVERGREEN   90  69  91  62  86 /  30  30  30  10  10
WAYNESBORO  89  68  87  62  84 /  30  30  30  10  10
CAMDEN      89  69  87  62  83 /  30  30  20  10  10
CRESTVIEW   92  70  93  66  88 /  30  30  40  10  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMOB 200449 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...AVIATION UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1150 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

.AVIATION...
20.06Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD.  A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN PATCHY LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG IS POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE...ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A GENERALLY LIGHT
WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
/13

&&

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT]...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...THANKS AT LEAST IN PART TO A MID-
LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING THROUGH THE REGION. MOST OF THE CONVECTION
HAS BEEN CONFINED TO AREAS GENERALLY EAST OF I-65 AND ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE. THIS IS PARTIALLY BECAUSE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR NEAR THE SURFACE
HAS FILTERED INTO THE NORTHERN/WESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA
BEHIND A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY.

INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WE MAY SEE SOME ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
DEVELOP/MOVE INTO COUNTIES ALONG THE FLORIDA/ALABAMA BORDER AS
BOUNDARY INTERACTION COMBINES WITH AVAILABLE INSTABILITY AND
ENHANCED SURFACE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. AS SUCH...THE GREATEST ODDS
OF SEEING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN PLACED HERE. ALL
INDICATIONS SUGGEST THAT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD DECREASE WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...WITH ONLY AN ISOLATED COVERAGE (AT BEST)
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT/THIS MORNING...WE MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG
DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. THE GREATEST ODDS OF SEEING THE FOG WILL
LIKELY BE IN REGIONS THAT RECEIVED RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND AROUND ANY
RIVER VALLEYS THANKS TO ENHANCED GROUND MOISTURE. I WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A BIT OF DENSE FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING
COMMUTE...BUT UNCERTAINTY PRECLUDES ANY MENTION OF DENSE FOG IN THE
GRIDDED FORECAST AT THIS TIME. MOST OF THE FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY
MID-MORNING.

BY TOMORROW...ANOTHER PERTURBATION IS EXPECTED TO ZOOM THROUGH THE
NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE SHOULD BE ENHANCED
AS THIS FEATURE MOVES THROUGH...ALLOWING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO
APPROACH 1.9-2 INCHES. WITH A SYNOPTIC SCALE BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO
WAVER ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF OUR REGION...EXPECTED ANOTHER ROUND
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON. WITH
THE HIGH VALUES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER EXPECTED...ANY STORMS MAY BE
EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS.
/BUTTS/

FOR WEDNESDAY EVENING...SCATTERED STORMS EXPECTED TO WIND DOWN BY
EARLY EVENING AS DAYTIME HEATING COMES TO AN END. TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO BE RELATIVELY WARM...ONLY FALLING INTO THE
UPPER 60S INLAND WITH LOW 70S ACROSS COASTAL COMMUNITIES. 07/MB

.LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]...FRONT EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SAG
ACROSS THE REGION AND MOVE OFF THE COAST BY LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR RAIN CHANCES TO DROP OFF THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF
THE WEEKEND. SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SEA BREEZE STORMS
EXPECTED TO ENTER BACK INTO THE FORECAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WORK WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF OUR AREA. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME FRAME. GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS
THAT FORM IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

BEHIND THE FRONT...WE WILL GET A TEMPORARY BREAK FROM THE MUGGY AND
WARM OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WITH MID TO LOW 60S EXPECTED ACROSS
INLAND LOCATIONS. SATURDAY MORNING LOOKS TO BE THE NICEST AND
COOLEST MORNING IN THE FORECAST PACKAGE WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW
60S ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. WARM OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
...MID TO LOW 70S IN MOST LOCATIONS...WILL RETURN FOR THE WORK WEEK.
UNFORTUNATELY...THE FRONT WILL NOT PROVIDE MUCH OF A REPRIEVE FROM
THE DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WITH MID TO UPPER 80S EXPECTED EVERY
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME LOCATIONS HITTING 90. 07/MB

&&

.MARINE...EXPECT LIGHT TO MODERATE WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE MARINE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...THEN VEER TO
THE NORTH BY THE WEEKEND AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS SHOULD AVERAGE
AROUND 2 FEET INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH AN AVERAGE PERIOD OF
APPROXIMATELY 3 TO 5 FEET OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS. /BUTTS/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      69  88  70  90  68 /  30  30  20  30  30
PENSACOLA   71  87  73  89  71 /  20  20  20  30  20
DESTIN      75  85  74  87  73 /  20  20  20  30  10
EVERGREEN   67  90  69  90  65 /  60  30  20  30  10
WAYNESBORO  66  90  67  87  65 /  40  30  20  40  10
CAMDEN      68  90  67  87  64 /  40  30  20  30  10
CRESTVIEW   68  90  69  92  68 /  60  30  20  30  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMOB 200449 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...AVIATION UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1150 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

.AVIATION...
20.06Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD.  A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN PATCHY LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG IS POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE...ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A GENERALLY LIGHT
WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
/13

&&

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT]...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...THANKS AT LEAST IN PART TO A MID-
LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING THROUGH THE REGION. MOST OF THE CONVECTION
HAS BEEN CONFINED TO AREAS GENERALLY EAST OF I-65 AND ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE. THIS IS PARTIALLY BECAUSE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR NEAR THE SURFACE
HAS FILTERED INTO THE NORTHERN/WESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA
BEHIND A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY.

INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WE MAY SEE SOME ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
DEVELOP/MOVE INTO COUNTIES ALONG THE FLORIDA/ALABAMA BORDER AS
BOUNDARY INTERACTION COMBINES WITH AVAILABLE INSTABILITY AND
ENHANCED SURFACE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. AS SUCH...THE GREATEST ODDS
OF SEEING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN PLACED HERE. ALL
INDICATIONS SUGGEST THAT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD DECREASE WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...WITH ONLY AN ISOLATED COVERAGE (AT BEST)
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT/THIS MORNING...WE MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG
DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. THE GREATEST ODDS OF SEEING THE FOG WILL
LIKELY BE IN REGIONS THAT RECEIVED RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND AROUND ANY
RIVER VALLEYS THANKS TO ENHANCED GROUND MOISTURE. I WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A BIT OF DENSE FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING
COMMUTE...BUT UNCERTAINTY PRECLUDES ANY MENTION OF DENSE FOG IN THE
GRIDDED FORECAST AT THIS TIME. MOST OF THE FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY
MID-MORNING.

BY TOMORROW...ANOTHER PERTURBATION IS EXPECTED TO ZOOM THROUGH THE
NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE SHOULD BE ENHANCED
AS THIS FEATURE MOVES THROUGH...ALLOWING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO
APPROACH 1.9-2 INCHES. WITH A SYNOPTIC SCALE BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO
WAVER ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF OUR REGION...EXPECTED ANOTHER ROUND
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON. WITH
THE HIGH VALUES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER EXPECTED...ANY STORMS MAY BE
EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS.
/BUTTS/

FOR WEDNESDAY EVENING...SCATTERED STORMS EXPECTED TO WIND DOWN BY
EARLY EVENING AS DAYTIME HEATING COMES TO AN END. TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO BE RELATIVELY WARM...ONLY FALLING INTO THE
UPPER 60S INLAND WITH LOW 70S ACROSS COASTAL COMMUNITIES. 07/MB

.LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]...FRONT EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SAG
ACROSS THE REGION AND MOVE OFF THE COAST BY LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR RAIN CHANCES TO DROP OFF THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF
THE WEEKEND. SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SEA BREEZE STORMS
EXPECTED TO ENTER BACK INTO THE FORECAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WORK WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF OUR AREA. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME FRAME. GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS
THAT FORM IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

BEHIND THE FRONT...WE WILL GET A TEMPORARY BREAK FROM THE MUGGY AND
WARM OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WITH MID TO LOW 60S EXPECTED ACROSS
INLAND LOCATIONS. SATURDAY MORNING LOOKS TO BE THE NICEST AND
COOLEST MORNING IN THE FORECAST PACKAGE WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW
60S ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. WARM OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
...MID TO LOW 70S IN MOST LOCATIONS...WILL RETURN FOR THE WORK WEEK.
UNFORTUNATELY...THE FRONT WILL NOT PROVIDE MUCH OF A REPRIEVE FROM
THE DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WITH MID TO UPPER 80S EXPECTED EVERY
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME LOCATIONS HITTING 90. 07/MB

&&

.MARINE...EXPECT LIGHT TO MODERATE WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE MARINE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...THEN VEER TO
THE NORTH BY THE WEEKEND AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS SHOULD AVERAGE
AROUND 2 FEET INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH AN AVERAGE PERIOD OF
APPROXIMATELY 3 TO 5 FEET OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS. /BUTTS/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      69  88  70  90  68 /  30  30  20  30  30
PENSACOLA   71  87  73  89  71 /  20  20  20  30  20
DESTIN      75  85  74  87  73 /  20  20  20  30  10
EVERGREEN   67  90  69  90  65 /  60  30  20  30  10
WAYNESBORO  66  90  67  87  65 /  40  30  20  40  10
CAMDEN      68  90  67  87  64 /  40  30  20  30  10
CRESTVIEW   68  90  69  92  68 /  60  30  20  30  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 192350 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...AVIATION UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
645 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

.AVIATION...
20.00Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD.  A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN PATCHY LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG IS POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE...ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. /13

&&

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT]...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...THANKS AT LEAST IN PART TO A MID-
LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING THROUGH THE REGION. MOST OF THE CONVECTION
HAS BEEN CONFINED TO AREAS GENERALLY EAST OF I-65 AND ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE. THIS IS PARTIALLY BECAUSE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR NEAR THE SURFACE
HAS FILTERED INTO THE NORTHERN/WESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA
BEHIND A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY.

INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WE MAY SEE SOME ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
DEVELOP/MOVE INTO COUNTIES ALONG THE FLORIDA/ALABAMA BORDER AS
BOUNDARY INTERACTION COMBINES WITH AVAILABLE INSTABILITY AND
ENHANCED SURFACE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. AS SUCH...THE GREATEST ODDS
OF SEEING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN PLACED HERE. ALL
INDICATIONS SUGGEST THAT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD DECREASE WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...WITH ONLY AN ISOLATED COVERAGE (AT BEST)
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT/THIS MORNING...WE MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG
DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. THE GREATEST ODDS OF SEEING THE FOG WILL
LIKELY BE IN REGIONS THAT RECEIVED RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND AROUND ANY
RIVER VALLEYS THANKS TO ENHANCED GROUND MOISTURE. I WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A BIT OF DENSE FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING
COMMUTE...BUT UNCERTAINTY PRECLUDES ANY MENTION OF DENSE FOG IN THE
GRIDDED FORECAST AT THIS TIME. MOST OF THE FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY
MID-MORNING.

BY TOMORROW...ANOTHER PERTURBATION IS EXPECTED TO ZOOM THROUGH THE
NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE SHOULD BE ENHANCED
AS THIS FEATURE MOVES THROUGH...ALLOWING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO
APPROACH 1.9-2 INCHES. WITH A SYNOPTIC SCALE BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO
WAVER ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF OUR REGION...EXPECTED ANOTHER ROUND
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON. WITH
THE HIGH VALUES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER EXPECTED...ANY STORMS MAY BE
EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS.
/BUTTS/

FOR WEDNESDAY EVENING...SCATTERED STORMS EXPECTED TO WIND DOWN BY
EARLY EVENING AS DAYTIME HEATING COMES TO AN END. TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO BE RELATIVELY WARM...ONLY FALLING INTO THE
UPPER 60S INLAND WITH LOW 70S ACROSS COASTAL COMMUNITIES. 07/MB

.LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]...FRONT EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SAG
ACROSS THE REGION AND MOVE OFF THE COAST BY LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR RAIN CHANCES TO DROP OFF THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF
THE WEEKEND. SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SEA BREEZE STORMS
EXPECTED TO ENTER BACK INTO THE FORECAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WORK WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF OUR AREA. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME FRAME. GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS
THAT FORM IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

BEHIND THE FRONT...WE WILL GET A TEMPORARY BREAK FROM THE MUGGY AND
WARM OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WITH MID TO LOW 60S EXPECTED ACROSS
INLAND LOCATIONS. SATURDAY MORNING LOOKS TO BE THE NICEST AND
COOLEST MORNING IN THE FORECAST PACKAGE WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW
60S ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. WARM OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
...MID TO LOW 70S IN MOST LOCATIONS...WILL RETURN FOR THE WORK WEEK.
UNFORTUNATELY...THE FRONT WILL NOT PROVIDE MUCH OF A REPRIEVE FROM
THE DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WITH MID TO UPPER 80S EXPECTED EVERY
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME LOCATIONS HITTING 90. 07/MB

&&

.MARINE...EXPECT LIGHT TO MODERATE WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE MARINE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...THEN VEER TO
THE NORTH BY THE WEEKEND AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS SHOULD AVERAGE
AROUND 2 FEET INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH AN AVERAGE PERIOD OF
APPROXIMATELY 3 TO 5 FEET OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS. /BUTTS/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      69  88  70  90  68 /  30  30  20  30  30
PENSACOLA   71  87  73  89  71 /  20  20  20  30  20
DESTIN      75  85  74  87  73 /  20  20  20  30  10
EVERGREEN   67  90  69  90  65 /  60  30  20  30  10
WAYNESBORO  66  90  67  87  65 /  40  30  20  40  10
CAMDEN      68  90  67  87  64 /  40  30  20  30  10
CRESTVIEW   68  90  69  92  68 /  60  30  20  30  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 192350 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...AVIATION UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
645 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

.AVIATION...
20.00Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD.  A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN PATCHY LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG IS POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE...ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. /13

&&

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT]...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...THANKS AT LEAST IN PART TO A MID-
LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING THROUGH THE REGION. MOST OF THE CONVECTION
HAS BEEN CONFINED TO AREAS GENERALLY EAST OF I-65 AND ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE. THIS IS PARTIALLY BECAUSE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR NEAR THE SURFACE
HAS FILTERED INTO THE NORTHERN/WESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA
BEHIND A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY.

INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WE MAY SEE SOME ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
DEVELOP/MOVE INTO COUNTIES ALONG THE FLORIDA/ALABAMA BORDER AS
BOUNDARY INTERACTION COMBINES WITH AVAILABLE INSTABILITY AND
ENHANCED SURFACE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. AS SUCH...THE GREATEST ODDS
OF SEEING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN PLACED HERE. ALL
INDICATIONS SUGGEST THAT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD DECREASE WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...WITH ONLY AN ISOLATED COVERAGE (AT BEST)
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT/THIS MORNING...WE MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG
DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. THE GREATEST ODDS OF SEEING THE FOG WILL
LIKELY BE IN REGIONS THAT RECEIVED RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND AROUND ANY
RIVER VALLEYS THANKS TO ENHANCED GROUND MOISTURE. I WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A BIT OF DENSE FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING
COMMUTE...BUT UNCERTAINTY PRECLUDES ANY MENTION OF DENSE FOG IN THE
GRIDDED FORECAST AT THIS TIME. MOST OF THE FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY
MID-MORNING.

BY TOMORROW...ANOTHER PERTURBATION IS EXPECTED TO ZOOM THROUGH THE
NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE SHOULD BE ENHANCED
AS THIS FEATURE MOVES THROUGH...ALLOWING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO
APPROACH 1.9-2 INCHES. WITH A SYNOPTIC SCALE BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO
WAVER ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF OUR REGION...EXPECTED ANOTHER ROUND
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON. WITH
THE HIGH VALUES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER EXPECTED...ANY STORMS MAY BE
EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS.
/BUTTS/

FOR WEDNESDAY EVENING...SCATTERED STORMS EXPECTED TO WIND DOWN BY
EARLY EVENING AS DAYTIME HEATING COMES TO AN END. TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO BE RELATIVELY WARM...ONLY FALLING INTO THE
UPPER 60S INLAND WITH LOW 70S ACROSS COASTAL COMMUNITIES. 07/MB

.LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]...FRONT EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SAG
ACROSS THE REGION AND MOVE OFF THE COAST BY LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR RAIN CHANCES TO DROP OFF THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF
THE WEEKEND. SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SEA BREEZE STORMS
EXPECTED TO ENTER BACK INTO THE FORECAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WORK WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF OUR AREA. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME FRAME. GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS
THAT FORM IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

BEHIND THE FRONT...WE WILL GET A TEMPORARY BREAK FROM THE MUGGY AND
WARM OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WITH MID TO LOW 60S EXPECTED ACROSS
INLAND LOCATIONS. SATURDAY MORNING LOOKS TO BE THE NICEST AND
COOLEST MORNING IN THE FORECAST PACKAGE WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW
60S ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. WARM OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
...MID TO LOW 70S IN MOST LOCATIONS...WILL RETURN FOR THE WORK WEEK.
UNFORTUNATELY...THE FRONT WILL NOT PROVIDE MUCH OF A REPRIEVE FROM
THE DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WITH MID TO UPPER 80S EXPECTED EVERY
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME LOCATIONS HITTING 90. 07/MB

&&

.MARINE...EXPECT LIGHT TO MODERATE WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE MARINE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...THEN VEER TO
THE NORTH BY THE WEEKEND AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS SHOULD AVERAGE
AROUND 2 FEET INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH AN AVERAGE PERIOD OF
APPROXIMATELY 3 TO 5 FEET OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS. /BUTTS/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      69  88  70  90  68 /  30  30  20  30  30
PENSACOLA   71  87  73  89  71 /  20  20  20  30  20
DESTIN      75  85  74  87  73 /  20  20  20  30  10
EVERGREEN   67  90  69  90  65 /  60  30  20  30  10
WAYNESBORO  66  90  67  87  65 /  40  30  20  40  10
CAMDEN      68  90  67  87  64 /  40  30  20  30  10
CRESTVIEW   68  90  69  92  68 /  60  30  20  30  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMOB 192350 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...AVIATION UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
645 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

.AVIATION...
20.00Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD.  A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN PATCHY LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG IS POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE...ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. /13

&&

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT]...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...THANKS AT LEAST IN PART TO A MID-
LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING THROUGH THE REGION. MOST OF THE CONVECTION
HAS BEEN CONFINED TO AREAS GENERALLY EAST OF I-65 AND ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE. THIS IS PARTIALLY BECAUSE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR NEAR THE SURFACE
HAS FILTERED INTO THE NORTHERN/WESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA
BEHIND A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY.

INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WE MAY SEE SOME ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
DEVELOP/MOVE INTO COUNTIES ALONG THE FLORIDA/ALABAMA BORDER AS
BOUNDARY INTERACTION COMBINES WITH AVAILABLE INSTABILITY AND
ENHANCED SURFACE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. AS SUCH...THE GREATEST ODDS
OF SEEING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN PLACED HERE. ALL
INDICATIONS SUGGEST THAT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD DECREASE WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...WITH ONLY AN ISOLATED COVERAGE (AT BEST)
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT/THIS MORNING...WE MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG
DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. THE GREATEST ODDS OF SEEING THE FOG WILL
LIKELY BE IN REGIONS THAT RECEIVED RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND AROUND ANY
RIVER VALLEYS THANKS TO ENHANCED GROUND MOISTURE. I WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A BIT OF DENSE FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING
COMMUTE...BUT UNCERTAINTY PRECLUDES ANY MENTION OF DENSE FOG IN THE
GRIDDED FORECAST AT THIS TIME. MOST OF THE FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY
MID-MORNING.

BY TOMORROW...ANOTHER PERTURBATION IS EXPECTED TO ZOOM THROUGH THE
NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE SHOULD BE ENHANCED
AS THIS FEATURE MOVES THROUGH...ALLOWING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO
APPROACH 1.9-2 INCHES. WITH A SYNOPTIC SCALE BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO
WAVER ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF OUR REGION...EXPECTED ANOTHER ROUND
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON. WITH
THE HIGH VALUES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER EXPECTED...ANY STORMS MAY BE
EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS.
/BUTTS/

FOR WEDNESDAY EVENING...SCATTERED STORMS EXPECTED TO WIND DOWN BY
EARLY EVENING AS DAYTIME HEATING COMES TO AN END. TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO BE RELATIVELY WARM...ONLY FALLING INTO THE
UPPER 60S INLAND WITH LOW 70S ACROSS COASTAL COMMUNITIES. 07/MB

.LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]...FRONT EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SAG
ACROSS THE REGION AND MOVE OFF THE COAST BY LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR RAIN CHANCES TO DROP OFF THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF
THE WEEKEND. SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SEA BREEZE STORMS
EXPECTED TO ENTER BACK INTO THE FORECAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WORK WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF OUR AREA. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME FRAME. GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS
THAT FORM IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

BEHIND THE FRONT...WE WILL GET A TEMPORARY BREAK FROM THE MUGGY AND
WARM OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WITH MID TO LOW 60S EXPECTED ACROSS
INLAND LOCATIONS. SATURDAY MORNING LOOKS TO BE THE NICEST AND
COOLEST MORNING IN THE FORECAST PACKAGE WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW
60S ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. WARM OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
...MID TO LOW 70S IN MOST LOCATIONS...WILL RETURN FOR THE WORK WEEK.
UNFORTUNATELY...THE FRONT WILL NOT PROVIDE MUCH OF A REPRIEVE FROM
THE DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WITH MID TO UPPER 80S EXPECTED EVERY
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME LOCATIONS HITTING 90. 07/MB

&&

.MARINE...EXPECT LIGHT TO MODERATE WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE MARINE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...THEN VEER TO
THE NORTH BY THE WEEKEND AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS SHOULD AVERAGE
AROUND 2 FEET INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH AN AVERAGE PERIOD OF
APPROXIMATELY 3 TO 5 FEET OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS. /BUTTS/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      69  88  70  90  68 /  30  30  20  30  30
PENSACOLA   71  87  73  89  71 /  20  20  20  30  20
DESTIN      75  85  74  87  73 /  20  20  20  30  10
EVERGREEN   67  90  69  90  65 /  60  30  20  30  10
WAYNESBORO  66  90  67  87  65 /  40  30  20  40  10
CAMDEN      68  90  67  87  64 /  40  30  20  30  10
CRESTVIEW   68  90  69  92  68 /  60  30  20  30  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMOB 192350 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...AVIATION UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
645 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

.AVIATION...
20.00Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD.  A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN PATCHY LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG IS POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE...ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. /13

&&

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT]...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...THANKS AT LEAST IN PART TO A MID-
LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING THROUGH THE REGION. MOST OF THE CONVECTION
HAS BEEN CONFINED TO AREAS GENERALLY EAST OF I-65 AND ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE. THIS IS PARTIALLY BECAUSE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR NEAR THE SURFACE
HAS FILTERED INTO THE NORTHERN/WESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA
BEHIND A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY.

INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WE MAY SEE SOME ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
DEVELOP/MOVE INTO COUNTIES ALONG THE FLORIDA/ALABAMA BORDER AS
BOUNDARY INTERACTION COMBINES WITH AVAILABLE INSTABILITY AND
ENHANCED SURFACE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. AS SUCH...THE GREATEST ODDS
OF SEEING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN PLACED HERE. ALL
INDICATIONS SUGGEST THAT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD DECREASE WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...WITH ONLY AN ISOLATED COVERAGE (AT BEST)
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT/THIS MORNING...WE MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG
DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. THE GREATEST ODDS OF SEEING THE FOG WILL
LIKELY BE IN REGIONS THAT RECEIVED RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND AROUND ANY
RIVER VALLEYS THANKS TO ENHANCED GROUND MOISTURE. I WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A BIT OF DENSE FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING
COMMUTE...BUT UNCERTAINTY PRECLUDES ANY MENTION OF DENSE FOG IN THE
GRIDDED FORECAST AT THIS TIME. MOST OF THE FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY
MID-MORNING.

BY TOMORROW...ANOTHER PERTURBATION IS EXPECTED TO ZOOM THROUGH THE
NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE SHOULD BE ENHANCED
AS THIS FEATURE MOVES THROUGH...ALLOWING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO
APPROACH 1.9-2 INCHES. WITH A SYNOPTIC SCALE BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO
WAVER ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF OUR REGION...EXPECTED ANOTHER ROUND
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON. WITH
THE HIGH VALUES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER EXPECTED...ANY STORMS MAY BE
EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS.
/BUTTS/

FOR WEDNESDAY EVENING...SCATTERED STORMS EXPECTED TO WIND DOWN BY
EARLY EVENING AS DAYTIME HEATING COMES TO AN END. TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO BE RELATIVELY WARM...ONLY FALLING INTO THE
UPPER 60S INLAND WITH LOW 70S ACROSS COASTAL COMMUNITIES. 07/MB

.LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]...FRONT EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SAG
ACROSS THE REGION AND MOVE OFF THE COAST BY LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR RAIN CHANCES TO DROP OFF THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF
THE WEEKEND. SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SEA BREEZE STORMS
EXPECTED TO ENTER BACK INTO THE FORECAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WORK WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF OUR AREA. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME FRAME. GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS
THAT FORM IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

BEHIND THE FRONT...WE WILL GET A TEMPORARY BREAK FROM THE MUGGY AND
WARM OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WITH MID TO LOW 60S EXPECTED ACROSS
INLAND LOCATIONS. SATURDAY MORNING LOOKS TO BE THE NICEST AND
COOLEST MORNING IN THE FORECAST PACKAGE WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW
60S ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. WARM OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
...MID TO LOW 70S IN MOST LOCATIONS...WILL RETURN FOR THE WORK WEEK.
UNFORTUNATELY...THE FRONT WILL NOT PROVIDE MUCH OF A REPRIEVE FROM
THE DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WITH MID TO UPPER 80S EXPECTED EVERY
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME LOCATIONS HITTING 90. 07/MB

&&

.MARINE...EXPECT LIGHT TO MODERATE WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE MARINE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...THEN VEER TO
THE NORTH BY THE WEEKEND AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS SHOULD AVERAGE
AROUND 2 FEET INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH AN AVERAGE PERIOD OF
APPROXIMATELY 3 TO 5 FEET OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS. /BUTTS/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      69  88  70  90  68 /  30  30  20  30  30
PENSACOLA   71  87  73  89  71 /  20  20  20  30  20
DESTIN      75  85  74  87  73 /  20  20  20  30  10
EVERGREEN   67  90  69  90  65 /  60  30  20  30  10
WAYNESBORO  66  90  67  87  65 /  40  30  20  40  10
CAMDEN      68  90  67  87  64 /  40  30  20  30  10
CRESTVIEW   68  90  69  92  68 /  60  30  20  30  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 192119
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
419 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015


.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT]...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...THANKS AT LEAST IN PART TO A MID-
LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING THROUGH THE REGION. MOST OF THE CONVECTION
HAS BEEN CONFINED TO AREAS GENERALLY EAST OF I-65 AND ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE. THIS IS PARTIALLY BECAUSE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR NEAR THE SURFACE
HAS FILTERED INTO THE NORTHERN/WESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA
BEHIND A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY.

INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WE MAY SEE SOME ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
DEVELOP/MOVE INTO COUNTIES ALONG THE FLORIDA/ALABAMA BORDER AS
BOUNDARY INTERACTION COMBINES WITH AVAILABLE INSTABILITY AND
ENHANCED SURFACE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. AS SUCH...THE GREATEST ODDS
OF SEEING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN PLACED HERE. ALL
INDICATIONS SUGGEST THAT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD DECREASE WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...WITH ONLY AN ISOLATED COVERAGE (AT BEST)
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT/THIS MORNING...WE MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG
DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. THE GREATEST ODDS OF SEEING THE FOG WILL
LIKELY BE IN REGIONS THAT RECEIVED RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND AROUND ANY
RIVER VALLEYS THANKS TO ENHANCED GROUND MOISTURE. I WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A BIT OF DENSE FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING
COMMUTE...BUT UNCERTAINTY PRECLUDES ANY MENTION OF DENSE FOG IN THE
GRIDDED FORECAST AT THIS TIME. MOST OF THE FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY
MID-MORNING.

BY TOMORROW...ANOTHER PERTURBATION IS EXPECTED TO ZOOM THROUGH THE
NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE SHOULD BE ENHANCED
AS THIS FEATURE MOVES THROUGH...ALLOWING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO
APPROACH 1.9-2 INCHES. WITH A SYNOPTIC SCALE BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO
WAVER ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF OUR REGION...EXPECTED ANOTHER ROUND
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON. WITH
THE HIGH VALUES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER EXPECTED...ANY STORMS MAY BE
EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS.
/BUTTS/

FOR WEDNESDAY EVENING...SCATTERED STORMS EXPECTED TO WIND DOWN BY
EARLY EVENING AS DAYTIME HEATING COMES TO AN END. TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO BE RELATIVELY WARM...ONLY FALLING INTO THE
UPPER 60S INLAND WITH LOW 70S ACROSS COASTAL COMMUNITIES. 07/MB

.LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]...FRONT EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SAG
ACROSS THE REGION AND MOVE OFF THE COAST BY LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR RAIN CHANCES TO DROP OFF THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF
THE WEEKEND. SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SEA BREEZE STORMS
EXPECTED TO ENTER BACK INTO THE FORECAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WORK WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF OUR AREA. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME FRAME. GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS
THAT FORM IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

BEHIND THE FRONT...WE WILL GET A TEMPORARY BREAK FROM THE MUGGY AND
WARM OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WITH MID TO LOW 60S EXPECTED ACROSS
INLAND LOCATIONS. SATURDAY MORNING LOOKS TO BE THE NICEST AND
COOLEST MORNING IN THE FORECAST PACKAGE WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW
60S ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. WARM OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
...MID TO LOW 70S IN MOST LOCATIONS...WILL RETURN FOR THE WORK WEEK.
UNFORTUNATELY...THE FRONT WILL NOT PROVIDE MUCH OF A REPRIEVE FROM
THE DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WITH MID TO UPPER 80S EXPECTED EVERY
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME LOCATIONS HITTING 90. 07/MB

&&

.AVIATION...18Z ISSUANCE...FLIGHT CATEGORIES SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN
VFR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF ANY SHRA/TSRA...WHERE CIGS/VSBYS MAY BE
REDUCED TO MVFR TERRITORY. WILL LIKELY SEE A LOWER COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS TERMINALS (GENERALLY) W OF
I-65...THANKS TO A SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS THROUGH THE BOUNDARY
LAYER. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER 20/0000 UTC WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING...AND ALLOW VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES TO BRIEFLY BE
SEEN. OVERNIGHT TONIGHT SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...WHERE
LOW CIGS MAY REDUCE FLIGHT CATEGORIES WELL INTO MVFR/POSSIBLE IFR
TERRITORY BEFORE DAWN. S-SW WINDS...WITH SPEEDS OF 10 KTS OR
LESS...WILL LIKELY BE SEEN THROUGH 20/1800 UTC. /BUTTS/

&&

.MARINE...EXPECT LIGHT TO MODERATE WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE MARINE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...THEN VEER TO
THE NORTH BY THE WEEKEND AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS SHOULD AVERAGE
AROUND 2 FEET INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH AN AVERAGE PERIOD OF
APPROXIMATELY 3 TO 5 FEET OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS. /BUTTS/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      69  88  70  90  68 /  30  30  20  30  30
PENSACOLA   71  87  73  89  71 /  20  20  20  30  20
DESTIN      75  85  74  87  73 /  20  20  20  30  10
EVERGREEN   67  90  69  90  65 /  60  30  20  30  10
WAYNESBORO  66  90  67  87  65 /  40  30  20  40  10
CAMDEN      68  90  67  87  64 /  40  30  20  30  10
CRESTVIEW   68  90  69  92  68 /  60  30  20  30  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMOB 192119
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
419 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015


.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT]...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...THANKS AT LEAST IN PART TO A MID-
LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING THROUGH THE REGION. MOST OF THE CONVECTION
HAS BEEN CONFINED TO AREAS GENERALLY EAST OF I-65 AND ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE. THIS IS PARTIALLY BECAUSE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR NEAR THE SURFACE
HAS FILTERED INTO THE NORTHERN/WESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA
BEHIND A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY.

INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WE MAY SEE SOME ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
DEVELOP/MOVE INTO COUNTIES ALONG THE FLORIDA/ALABAMA BORDER AS
BOUNDARY INTERACTION COMBINES WITH AVAILABLE INSTABILITY AND
ENHANCED SURFACE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. AS SUCH...THE GREATEST ODDS
OF SEEING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN PLACED HERE. ALL
INDICATIONS SUGGEST THAT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD DECREASE WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...WITH ONLY AN ISOLATED COVERAGE (AT BEST)
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT/THIS MORNING...WE MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG
DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. THE GREATEST ODDS OF SEEING THE FOG WILL
LIKELY BE IN REGIONS THAT RECEIVED RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND AROUND ANY
RIVER VALLEYS THANKS TO ENHANCED GROUND MOISTURE. I WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A BIT OF DENSE FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING
COMMUTE...BUT UNCERTAINTY PRECLUDES ANY MENTION OF DENSE FOG IN THE
GRIDDED FORECAST AT THIS TIME. MOST OF THE FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY
MID-MORNING.

BY TOMORROW...ANOTHER PERTURBATION IS EXPECTED TO ZOOM THROUGH THE
NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE SHOULD BE ENHANCED
AS THIS FEATURE MOVES THROUGH...ALLOWING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO
APPROACH 1.9-2 INCHES. WITH A SYNOPTIC SCALE BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO
WAVER ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF OUR REGION...EXPECTED ANOTHER ROUND
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON. WITH
THE HIGH VALUES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER EXPECTED...ANY STORMS MAY BE
EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS.
/BUTTS/

FOR WEDNESDAY EVENING...SCATTERED STORMS EXPECTED TO WIND DOWN BY
EARLY EVENING AS DAYTIME HEATING COMES TO AN END. TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO BE RELATIVELY WARM...ONLY FALLING INTO THE
UPPER 60S INLAND WITH LOW 70S ACROSS COASTAL COMMUNITIES. 07/MB

.LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]...FRONT EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SAG
ACROSS THE REGION AND MOVE OFF THE COAST BY LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR RAIN CHANCES TO DROP OFF THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF
THE WEEKEND. SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SEA BREEZE STORMS
EXPECTED TO ENTER BACK INTO THE FORECAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WORK WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF OUR AREA. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME FRAME. GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS
THAT FORM IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

BEHIND THE FRONT...WE WILL GET A TEMPORARY BREAK FROM THE MUGGY AND
WARM OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WITH MID TO LOW 60S EXPECTED ACROSS
INLAND LOCATIONS. SATURDAY MORNING LOOKS TO BE THE NICEST AND
COOLEST MORNING IN THE FORECAST PACKAGE WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW
60S ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. WARM OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
...MID TO LOW 70S IN MOST LOCATIONS...WILL RETURN FOR THE WORK WEEK.
UNFORTUNATELY...THE FRONT WILL NOT PROVIDE MUCH OF A REPRIEVE FROM
THE DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WITH MID TO UPPER 80S EXPECTED EVERY
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME LOCATIONS HITTING 90. 07/MB

&&

.AVIATION...18Z ISSUANCE...FLIGHT CATEGORIES SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN
VFR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF ANY SHRA/TSRA...WHERE CIGS/VSBYS MAY BE
REDUCED TO MVFR TERRITORY. WILL LIKELY SEE A LOWER COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS TERMINALS (GENERALLY) W OF
I-65...THANKS TO A SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS THROUGH THE BOUNDARY
LAYER. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER 20/0000 UTC WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING...AND ALLOW VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES TO BRIEFLY BE
SEEN. OVERNIGHT TONIGHT SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...WHERE
LOW CIGS MAY REDUCE FLIGHT CATEGORIES WELL INTO MVFR/POSSIBLE IFR
TERRITORY BEFORE DAWN. S-SW WINDS...WITH SPEEDS OF 10 KTS OR
LESS...WILL LIKELY BE SEEN THROUGH 20/1800 UTC. /BUTTS/

&&

.MARINE...EXPECT LIGHT TO MODERATE WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE MARINE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...THEN VEER TO
THE NORTH BY THE WEEKEND AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS SHOULD AVERAGE
AROUND 2 FEET INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH AN AVERAGE PERIOD OF
APPROXIMATELY 3 TO 5 FEET OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS. /BUTTS/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      69  88  70  90  68 /  30  30  20  30  30
PENSACOLA   71  87  73  89  71 /  20  20  20  30  20
DESTIN      75  85  74  87  73 /  20  20  20  30  10
EVERGREEN   67  90  69  90  65 /  60  30  20  30  10
WAYNESBORO  66  90  67  87  65 /  40  30  20  40  10
CAMDEN      68  90  67  87  64 /  40  30  20  30  10
CRESTVIEW   68  90  69  92  68 /  60  30  20  30  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 192119
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
419 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015


.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT]...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...THANKS AT LEAST IN PART TO A MID-
LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING THROUGH THE REGION. MOST OF THE CONVECTION
HAS BEEN CONFINED TO AREAS GENERALLY EAST OF I-65 AND ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE. THIS IS PARTIALLY BECAUSE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR NEAR THE SURFACE
HAS FILTERED INTO THE NORTHERN/WESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA
BEHIND A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY.

INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WE MAY SEE SOME ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
DEVELOP/MOVE INTO COUNTIES ALONG THE FLORIDA/ALABAMA BORDER AS
BOUNDARY INTERACTION COMBINES WITH AVAILABLE INSTABILITY AND
ENHANCED SURFACE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. AS SUCH...THE GREATEST ODDS
OF SEEING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN PLACED HERE. ALL
INDICATIONS SUGGEST THAT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD DECREASE WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...WITH ONLY AN ISOLATED COVERAGE (AT BEST)
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT/THIS MORNING...WE MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG
DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. THE GREATEST ODDS OF SEEING THE FOG WILL
LIKELY BE IN REGIONS THAT RECEIVED RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND AROUND ANY
RIVER VALLEYS THANKS TO ENHANCED GROUND MOISTURE. I WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A BIT OF DENSE FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING
COMMUTE...BUT UNCERTAINTY PRECLUDES ANY MENTION OF DENSE FOG IN THE
GRIDDED FORECAST AT THIS TIME. MOST OF THE FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY
MID-MORNING.

BY TOMORROW...ANOTHER PERTURBATION IS EXPECTED TO ZOOM THROUGH THE
NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE SHOULD BE ENHANCED
AS THIS FEATURE MOVES THROUGH...ALLOWING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO
APPROACH 1.9-2 INCHES. WITH A SYNOPTIC SCALE BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO
WAVER ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF OUR REGION...EXPECTED ANOTHER ROUND
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON. WITH
THE HIGH VALUES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER EXPECTED...ANY STORMS MAY BE
EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS.
/BUTTS/

FOR WEDNESDAY EVENING...SCATTERED STORMS EXPECTED TO WIND DOWN BY
EARLY EVENING AS DAYTIME HEATING COMES TO AN END. TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO BE RELATIVELY WARM...ONLY FALLING INTO THE
UPPER 60S INLAND WITH LOW 70S ACROSS COASTAL COMMUNITIES. 07/MB

.LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]...FRONT EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SAG
ACROSS THE REGION AND MOVE OFF THE COAST BY LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR RAIN CHANCES TO DROP OFF THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF
THE WEEKEND. SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SEA BREEZE STORMS
EXPECTED TO ENTER BACK INTO THE FORECAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WORK WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF OUR AREA. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME FRAME. GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS
THAT FORM IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

BEHIND THE FRONT...WE WILL GET A TEMPORARY BREAK FROM THE MUGGY AND
WARM OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WITH MID TO LOW 60S EXPECTED ACROSS
INLAND LOCATIONS. SATURDAY MORNING LOOKS TO BE THE NICEST AND
COOLEST MORNING IN THE FORECAST PACKAGE WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW
60S ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. WARM OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
...MID TO LOW 70S IN MOST LOCATIONS...WILL RETURN FOR THE WORK WEEK.
UNFORTUNATELY...THE FRONT WILL NOT PROVIDE MUCH OF A REPRIEVE FROM
THE DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WITH MID TO UPPER 80S EXPECTED EVERY
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME LOCATIONS HITTING 90. 07/MB

&&

.AVIATION...18Z ISSUANCE...FLIGHT CATEGORIES SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN
VFR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF ANY SHRA/TSRA...WHERE CIGS/VSBYS MAY BE
REDUCED TO MVFR TERRITORY. WILL LIKELY SEE A LOWER COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS TERMINALS (GENERALLY) W OF
I-65...THANKS TO A SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS THROUGH THE BOUNDARY
LAYER. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER 20/0000 UTC WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING...AND ALLOW VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES TO BRIEFLY BE
SEEN. OVERNIGHT TONIGHT SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...WHERE
LOW CIGS MAY REDUCE FLIGHT CATEGORIES WELL INTO MVFR/POSSIBLE IFR
TERRITORY BEFORE DAWN. S-SW WINDS...WITH SPEEDS OF 10 KTS OR
LESS...WILL LIKELY BE SEEN THROUGH 20/1800 UTC. /BUTTS/

&&

.MARINE...EXPECT LIGHT TO MODERATE WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE MARINE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...THEN VEER TO
THE NORTH BY THE WEEKEND AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS SHOULD AVERAGE
AROUND 2 FEET INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH AN AVERAGE PERIOD OF
APPROXIMATELY 3 TO 5 FEET OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS. /BUTTS/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      69  88  70  90  68 /  30  30  20  30  30
PENSACOLA   71  87  73  89  71 /  20  20  20  30  20
DESTIN      75  85  74  87  73 /  20  20  20  30  10
EVERGREEN   67  90  69  90  65 /  60  30  20  30  10
WAYNESBORO  66  90  67  87  65 /  40  30  20  40  10
CAMDEN      68  90  67  87  64 /  40  30  20  30  10
CRESTVIEW   68  90  69  92  68 /  60  30  20  30  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$




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