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000
FXUS64 KMOB 291630
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1130 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...WE WENT AHEAD AND SHOWED THE DETAILED PROGRESSION
OF THE PRECIPITATION INLAND BY SPLITTING THE GRIDS INTO 3 HOUR
INTERVALS. THERE WAS NOT MUCH OF A CHANGE TO THE QPF EXCEPT WHERE
ADJUSTED FOR THE INLAND PROGRESSION. LITTLE ELSE HAS CHANGED WITH
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS...THIS IS MORE OF A DETAILED TIMING REVISION.
WE UPDATED ALL PUBLIC FORECAST PRODUCTS INCLUDING ZONES AND COASTAL
WATERS FORECAST. 77/BD

&&

.MARINE...SEE MESOSCALE UPDATE DISCUSSION ABOVE FOR COASTAL WATERS
FORECAST. 77/BD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1034 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014/

AVIATION UPDATE FOR 29.1500 TAF AMEND...TWEAKED THE TEMP GROUPS
AFTER RE-COMPUTING THE ARRIVAL TIME BY LINEAR EXTRAPOLATION FOR THE
CONVECTION OFFSHORE. DELAYED ABOUT AN HOUR OR SO FOR MOB. OTHER TAFS
NOT AFFECTED. ALSO INCLUDED VCTS ONCE THE FIRST ROUND CLEARS THE
TERMINALS. FURTHER INLAND...EXPECTING THE LEADING EDGE OF THE BAND TO
BE ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR ATMORE ALABAMA TO WAYNESBORO MISSISSIPPI BY
29.2100Z...AND THOMASVILLE TO BUTLER ALABAMA BY 30.0100Z. THIS IS NOT
TOO DIFFERENT FROM THE NAM AND GFS CALCULATIONS WHICH HAVE THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MARCHING IN AFTER 18Z. 77/BD

MESOSCALE UPDATE...BASED ON RUC...THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST
RISK REMAINS MODERATE. THE ARRIVAL TIME OF OFFSHORE CONVECTION BY
LINEAR EXTRAPOLATION IS FOR THE LEADING EDGE OF THE BAND TO BE ALONG
THE BEACH SHORTLY BEFORE NOON....ALONG A LINE FROM MOBILE ALABAMA TO
CRESTVIEW FLORIDA AROUND 2 PM...ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR ATMORE ALABAMA TO
WAYNESBORO MISSISSIPPI BY 4 PM...AND THOMASVILLE TO BUTLER ALABAMA BY
ABOUT 8 PM. 77/BD

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 438 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE EASTWARD
TODAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE MIDWESTERN STATES.
MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LOW WAS LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN GULF. THIS WILL
SETUP A DEEP SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WHICH WILL ALLOW DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE TO SURGE INTO THE AREA AS A TROPICAL WAVE IS DRAWN
NORTH. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL CLIMB TO NEARLY 2.25 INCHES
ACROSS COASTAL AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE MARINE AREA THIS
MORNING AND MOVE INLAND THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS THE
TROPICAL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE MOVE NORTH. AS HEATING
INCREASES OVER LAND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. THE GREATEST COVERAGE
WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE THE
HIGHEST DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE LOCATED. FAR NORTHERN ZONES WILL
ONLY SEE ISOLATED COVERAGE DUE TO A DRIER AIRMASS. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED BUT A FEW STRONGER STORMS COULD
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS DUE TO WATER LOADING IN A VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT.
THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE BRIEFLY THIS EVENING BEFORE INCREASING
AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE AREA
FROM THE WEST.

HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW 90S WITH A FEW MID 90S POSSIBLE
WELL INLAND WHERE RAIN CHANCES ARE LOWER. COOLER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS SOUTHERN AREA DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND RAIN. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WITH UPPER 70S NEAR THE COAST. /13

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS: MODERATE.

(SATURDAY AND SUNDAY)...DISSIPATING SFC TROF REMAINS OVER THE FCST
AREA WHILE SEVERAL WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASS OVER THE REGION
IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SLIGHTLY
LOWER THAN FRIDAY...BUT REMAIN HIGH AROUND 2 INCHES. THE MOIST
AIRMASS...COMBINED WITH THE JUST MENTIONED WEAK DYNAMICS WILL
CONTINUE TO RESULT IN A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE
WEEKEND. WILL EXPECT A PRIMARILY DIURNAL CONVECTIVE PATTERN...WITH
DAYTIME HEATING PROVIDING THE ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. WENT WITH MAX
TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY DUE TO
WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND GOOD RAIN COVERAGES...BUT MOST LOCATIONS
STILL RISING INTO THE LOWER 90S. SATURDAY NIGHT LOW TEMPS RANGING
FROM THE LOWER 70S OVER NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF FCST AREA...MID TO
UPPER 70S DOWN TOWARD THE COAST. 12/DS

LONG TERM (LABOR DAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...UNSTABLE WEATHER PATTERN
PERSISTS WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING PRODUCING DAILY
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. OVERALL CHANCES
SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN OVER THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND HOWEVER...AS UPPER RIDGING
BUILDS OVER THE AREA AND SUPPRESSES LIFT SOMEWHAT. GENERALLY EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...BECOMING ISOLATED OVERNIGHT. DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
MID 90S THROUGH THE PERIOD...OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO UPPER 70S
NORTH THROUGH SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. 12/DS

AVIATION (29/12Z ISSUANCE)...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE NEAR THE TERMINALS LATER THIS MORNING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. /13

MARINE...A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK...AND A LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY. MOISTURE WILL SPREAD
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...AND WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN WILL BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MARINE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. /13

FIRE WEATHER...NO HEADLINES OR CONCERNS WITH HIGH HUMIDITY AND DAILY
RAINFALL EXPECTED. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      92  76  90  76  90 /  60  40  50  30  30
PENSACOLA   92  78  91  78  89 /  60  40  50  30  30
DESTIN      92  81  88  81  87 /  60  40  40  30  30
EVERGREEN   94  73  92  72  92 /  40  40  60  30  30
WAYNESBORO  94  73  90  73  91 /  30  40  60  40  40
CAMDEN      94  73  91  72  92 /  20  30  60  30  30
CRESTVIEW   93  73  93  72  92 /  60  40  50  30  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$











000
FXUS64 KMOB 291630
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1130 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...WE WENT AHEAD AND SHOWED THE DETAILED PROGRESSION
OF THE PRECIPITATION INLAND BY SPLITTING THE GRIDS INTO 3 HOUR
INTERVALS. THERE WAS NOT MUCH OF A CHANGE TO THE QPF EXCEPT WHERE
ADJUSTED FOR THE INLAND PROGRESSION. LITTLE ELSE HAS CHANGED WITH
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS...THIS IS MORE OF A DETAILED TIMING REVISION.
WE UPDATED ALL PUBLIC FORECAST PRODUCTS INCLUDING ZONES AND COASTAL
WATERS FORECAST. 77/BD

&&

.MARINE...SEE MESOSCALE UPDATE DISCUSSION ABOVE FOR COASTAL WATERS
FORECAST. 77/BD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1034 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014/

AVIATION UPDATE FOR 29.1500 TAF AMEND...TWEAKED THE TEMP GROUPS
AFTER RE-COMPUTING THE ARRIVAL TIME BY LINEAR EXTRAPOLATION FOR THE
CONVECTION OFFSHORE. DELAYED ABOUT AN HOUR OR SO FOR MOB. OTHER TAFS
NOT AFFECTED. ALSO INCLUDED VCTS ONCE THE FIRST ROUND CLEARS THE
TERMINALS. FURTHER INLAND...EXPECTING THE LEADING EDGE OF THE BAND TO
BE ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR ATMORE ALABAMA TO WAYNESBORO MISSISSIPPI BY
29.2100Z...AND THOMASVILLE TO BUTLER ALABAMA BY 30.0100Z. THIS IS NOT
TOO DIFFERENT FROM THE NAM AND GFS CALCULATIONS WHICH HAVE THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MARCHING IN AFTER 18Z. 77/BD

MESOSCALE UPDATE...BASED ON RUC...THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST
RISK REMAINS MODERATE. THE ARRIVAL TIME OF OFFSHORE CONVECTION BY
LINEAR EXTRAPOLATION IS FOR THE LEADING EDGE OF THE BAND TO BE ALONG
THE BEACH SHORTLY BEFORE NOON....ALONG A LINE FROM MOBILE ALABAMA TO
CRESTVIEW FLORIDA AROUND 2 PM...ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR ATMORE ALABAMA TO
WAYNESBORO MISSISSIPPI BY 4 PM...AND THOMASVILLE TO BUTLER ALABAMA BY
ABOUT 8 PM. 77/BD

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 438 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE EASTWARD
TODAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE MIDWESTERN STATES.
MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LOW WAS LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN GULF. THIS WILL
SETUP A DEEP SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WHICH WILL ALLOW DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE TO SURGE INTO THE AREA AS A TROPICAL WAVE IS DRAWN
NORTH. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL CLIMB TO NEARLY 2.25 INCHES
ACROSS COASTAL AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE MARINE AREA THIS
MORNING AND MOVE INLAND THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS THE
TROPICAL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE MOVE NORTH. AS HEATING
INCREASES OVER LAND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. THE GREATEST COVERAGE
WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE THE
HIGHEST DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE LOCATED. FAR NORTHERN ZONES WILL
ONLY SEE ISOLATED COVERAGE DUE TO A DRIER AIRMASS. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED BUT A FEW STRONGER STORMS COULD
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS DUE TO WATER LOADING IN A VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT.
THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE BRIEFLY THIS EVENING BEFORE INCREASING
AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE AREA
FROM THE WEST.

HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW 90S WITH A FEW MID 90S POSSIBLE
WELL INLAND WHERE RAIN CHANCES ARE LOWER. COOLER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS SOUTHERN AREA DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND RAIN. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WITH UPPER 70S NEAR THE COAST. /13

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS: MODERATE.

(SATURDAY AND SUNDAY)...DISSIPATING SFC TROF REMAINS OVER THE FCST
AREA WHILE SEVERAL WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASS OVER THE REGION
IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SLIGHTLY
LOWER THAN FRIDAY...BUT REMAIN HIGH AROUND 2 INCHES. THE MOIST
AIRMASS...COMBINED WITH THE JUST MENTIONED WEAK DYNAMICS WILL
CONTINUE TO RESULT IN A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE
WEEKEND. WILL EXPECT A PRIMARILY DIURNAL CONVECTIVE PATTERN...WITH
DAYTIME HEATING PROVIDING THE ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. WENT WITH MAX
TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY DUE TO
WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND GOOD RAIN COVERAGES...BUT MOST LOCATIONS
STILL RISING INTO THE LOWER 90S. SATURDAY NIGHT LOW TEMPS RANGING
FROM THE LOWER 70S OVER NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF FCST AREA...MID TO
UPPER 70S DOWN TOWARD THE COAST. 12/DS

LONG TERM (LABOR DAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...UNSTABLE WEATHER PATTERN
PERSISTS WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING PRODUCING DAILY
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. OVERALL CHANCES
SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN OVER THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND HOWEVER...AS UPPER RIDGING
BUILDS OVER THE AREA AND SUPPRESSES LIFT SOMEWHAT. GENERALLY EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...BECOMING ISOLATED OVERNIGHT. DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
MID 90S THROUGH THE PERIOD...OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO UPPER 70S
NORTH THROUGH SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. 12/DS

AVIATION (29/12Z ISSUANCE)...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE NEAR THE TERMINALS LATER THIS MORNING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. /13

MARINE...A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK...AND A LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY. MOISTURE WILL SPREAD
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...AND WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN WILL BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MARINE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. /13

FIRE WEATHER...NO HEADLINES OR CONCERNS WITH HIGH HUMIDITY AND DAILY
RAINFALL EXPECTED. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      92  76  90  76  90 /  60  40  50  30  30
PENSACOLA   92  78  91  78  89 /  60  40  50  30  30
DESTIN      92  81  88  81  87 /  60  40  40  30  30
EVERGREEN   94  73  92  72  92 /  40  40  60  30  30
WAYNESBORO  94  73  90  73  91 /  30  40  60  40  40
CAMDEN      94  73  91  72  92 /  20  30  60  30  30
CRESTVIEW   93  73  93  72  92 /  60  40  50  30  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KMOB 291534
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1034 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.AVIATION UPDATE FOR 29.1500 TAF AMEND...TWEAKED THE TEMP GROUPS
AFTER RE-COMPUTING THE ARRIVAL TIME BY LINEAR EXTRAPOLATION FOR THE
CONVECTION OFFSHORE. DELAYED ABOUT AN HOUR OR SO FOR MOB. OTHER TAFS
NOT AFFECTED. ALSO INCLUDED VCTS ONCE THE FIRST ROUND CLEARS THE
TERMINALS. FURTHER INLAND...EXPECTING THE LEADING EDGE OF THE BAND TO
BE ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR ATMORE ALABAMA TO WAYNESBORO MISSISSIPPI BY
29.2100Z...AND THOMASVILLE TO BUTLER ALABAMA BY 30.0100Z. THIS IS NOT
TOO DIFFERENT FROM THE NAM AND GFS CALCULATIONS WHICH HAVE THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MARCHING IN AFTER 18Z.

&&

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...BASED ON RUC...THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST
RISK REMAINS MODERATE. THE ARRIVAL TIME OF OFFSHORE CONVECTION BY
LINEAR EXTRAPOLATION IS FOR THE LEADING EDGE OF THE BAND TO BE ALONG
THE BEACH SHORTLY BEFORE NOON....ALONG A LINE FROM MOBILE ALABAMA TO
CRESTVIEW FLORIDA AROUND 2 PM...ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR ATMORE ALABAMA TO
WAYNESBORO MISSISSIPPI BY 4 PM...AND THOMASVILLE TO BUTLER ALABAMA BY
ABOUT 8 PM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 438 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE EASTWARD
TODAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE MIDWESTERN STATES.
MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LOW WAS LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN GULF. THIS WILL
SETUP A DEEP SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WHICH WILL ALLOW DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE TO SURGE INTO THE AREA AS A TROPICAL WAVE IS DRAWN
NORTH. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL CLIMB TO NEARLY 2.25 INCHES
ACROSS COASTAL AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE MARINE AREA THIS
MORNING AND MOVE INLAND THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS THE
TROPICAL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE MOVE NORTH. AS HEATING
INCREASES OVER LAND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. THE GREATEST COVERAGE
WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE THE
HIGHEST DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE LOCATED. FAR NORTHERN ZONES WILL
ONLY SEE ISOLATED COVERAGE DUE TO A DRIER AIRMASS. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED BUT A FEW STRONGER STORMS COULD
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS DUE TO WATER LOADING IN A VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT.
THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE BRIEFLY THIS EVENING BEFORE INCREASING
AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE AREA
FROM THE WEST.

HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW 90S WITH A FEW MID 90S POSSIBLE
WELL INLAND WHERE RAIN CHANCES ARE LOWER. COOLER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS SOUTHERN AREA DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND RAIN. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WITH UPPER 70S NEAR THE COAST. /13

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS: MODERATE.

(SATURDAY AND SUNDAY)...DISSIPATING SFC TROF REMAINS OVER THE FCST
AREA WHILE SEVERAL WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASS OVER THE REGION
IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SLIGHTLY
LOWER THAN FRIDAY...BUT REMAIN HIGH AROUND 2 INCHES. THE MOIST
AIRMASS...COMBINED WITH THE JUST MENTIONED WEAK DYNAMICS WILL
CONTINUE TO RESULT IN A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE
WEEKEND. WILL EXPECT A PRIMARILY DIURNAL CONVECTIVE PATTERN...WITH
DAYTIME HEATING PROVIDING THE ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. WENT WITH MAX
TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY DUE TO
WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND GOOD RAIN COVERAGES...BUT MOST LOCATIONS
STILL RISING INTO THE LOWER 90S. SATURDAY NIGHT LOW TEMPS RANGING
FROM THE LOWER 70S OVER NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF FCST AREA...MID TO
UPPER 70S DOWN TOWARD THE COAST. 12/DS

LONG TERM (LABOR DAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...UNSTABLE WEATHER PATTERN
PERSISTS WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING PRODUCING DAILY
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. OVERALL CHANCES
SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN OVER THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND HOWEVER...AS UPPER RIDGING
BUILDS OVER THE AREA AND SUPPRESSES LIFT SOMEWHAT. GENERALLY EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...BECOMING ISOLATED OVERNIGHT. DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
MID 90S THROUGH THE PERIOD...OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO UPPER 70S
NORTH THROUGH SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. 12/DS

AVIATION (29/12Z ISSUANCE)...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE NEAR THE TERMINALS LATER THIS MORNING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. /13

MARINE...A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK...AND A LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY. MOISTURE WILL SPREAD
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...AND WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN WILL BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MARINE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. /13

FIRE WEATHER...NO HEADLINES OR CONCERNS WITH HIGH HUMIDITY AND DAILY
RAINFALL EXPECTED. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      92  76  90  76  90 /  60  40  50  30  30
PENSACOLA   92  78  91  78  89 /  60  40  50  30  30
DESTIN      92  81  88  81  87 /  60  40  40  30  30
EVERGREEN   94  73  92  72  92 /  30  30  60  30  30
WAYNESBORO  94  73  90  73  91 /  30  30  60  40  40
CAMDEN      94  73  91  72  92 /  20  30  60  30  30
CRESTVIEW   93  73  93  72  92 /  60  30  50  30  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMOB 291534
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1034 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.AVIATION UPDATE FOR 29.1500 TAF AMEND...TWEAKED THE TEMP GROUPS
AFTER RE-COMPUTING THE ARRIVAL TIME BY LINEAR EXTRAPOLATION FOR THE
CONVECTION OFFSHORE. DELAYED ABOUT AN HOUR OR SO FOR MOB. OTHER TAFS
NOT AFFECTED. ALSO INCLUDED VCTS ONCE THE FIRST ROUND CLEARS THE
TERMINALS. FURTHER INLAND...EXPECTING THE LEADING EDGE OF THE BAND TO
BE ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR ATMORE ALABAMA TO WAYNESBORO MISSISSIPPI BY
29.2100Z...AND THOMASVILLE TO BUTLER ALABAMA BY 30.0100Z. THIS IS NOT
TOO DIFFERENT FROM THE NAM AND GFS CALCULATIONS WHICH HAVE THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MARCHING IN AFTER 18Z.

&&

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...BASED ON RUC...THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST
RISK REMAINS MODERATE. THE ARRIVAL TIME OF OFFSHORE CONVECTION BY
LINEAR EXTRAPOLATION IS FOR THE LEADING EDGE OF THE BAND TO BE ALONG
THE BEACH SHORTLY BEFORE NOON....ALONG A LINE FROM MOBILE ALABAMA TO
CRESTVIEW FLORIDA AROUND 2 PM...ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR ATMORE ALABAMA TO
WAYNESBORO MISSISSIPPI BY 4 PM...AND THOMASVILLE TO BUTLER ALABAMA BY
ABOUT 8 PM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 438 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE EASTWARD
TODAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE MIDWESTERN STATES.
MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LOW WAS LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN GULF. THIS WILL
SETUP A DEEP SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WHICH WILL ALLOW DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE TO SURGE INTO THE AREA AS A TROPICAL WAVE IS DRAWN
NORTH. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL CLIMB TO NEARLY 2.25 INCHES
ACROSS COASTAL AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE MARINE AREA THIS
MORNING AND MOVE INLAND THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS THE
TROPICAL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE MOVE NORTH. AS HEATING
INCREASES OVER LAND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. THE GREATEST COVERAGE
WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE THE
HIGHEST DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE LOCATED. FAR NORTHERN ZONES WILL
ONLY SEE ISOLATED COVERAGE DUE TO A DRIER AIRMASS. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED BUT A FEW STRONGER STORMS COULD
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS DUE TO WATER LOADING IN A VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT.
THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE BRIEFLY THIS EVENING BEFORE INCREASING
AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE AREA
FROM THE WEST.

HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW 90S WITH A FEW MID 90S POSSIBLE
WELL INLAND WHERE RAIN CHANCES ARE LOWER. COOLER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS SOUTHERN AREA DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND RAIN. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WITH UPPER 70S NEAR THE COAST. /13

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS: MODERATE.

(SATURDAY AND SUNDAY)...DISSIPATING SFC TROF REMAINS OVER THE FCST
AREA WHILE SEVERAL WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASS OVER THE REGION
IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SLIGHTLY
LOWER THAN FRIDAY...BUT REMAIN HIGH AROUND 2 INCHES. THE MOIST
AIRMASS...COMBINED WITH THE JUST MENTIONED WEAK DYNAMICS WILL
CONTINUE TO RESULT IN A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE
WEEKEND. WILL EXPECT A PRIMARILY DIURNAL CONVECTIVE PATTERN...WITH
DAYTIME HEATING PROVIDING THE ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. WENT WITH MAX
TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY DUE TO
WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND GOOD RAIN COVERAGES...BUT MOST LOCATIONS
STILL RISING INTO THE LOWER 90S. SATURDAY NIGHT LOW TEMPS RANGING
FROM THE LOWER 70S OVER NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF FCST AREA...MID TO
UPPER 70S DOWN TOWARD THE COAST. 12/DS

LONG TERM (LABOR DAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...UNSTABLE WEATHER PATTERN
PERSISTS WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING PRODUCING DAILY
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. OVERALL CHANCES
SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN OVER THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND HOWEVER...AS UPPER RIDGING
BUILDS OVER THE AREA AND SUPPRESSES LIFT SOMEWHAT. GENERALLY EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...BECOMING ISOLATED OVERNIGHT. DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
MID 90S THROUGH THE PERIOD...OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO UPPER 70S
NORTH THROUGH SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. 12/DS

AVIATION (29/12Z ISSUANCE)...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE NEAR THE TERMINALS LATER THIS MORNING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. /13

MARINE...A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK...AND A LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY. MOISTURE WILL SPREAD
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...AND WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN WILL BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MARINE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. /13

FIRE WEATHER...NO HEADLINES OR CONCERNS WITH HIGH HUMIDITY AND DAILY
RAINFALL EXPECTED. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      92  76  90  76  90 /  60  40  50  30  30
PENSACOLA   92  78  91  78  89 /  60  40  50  30  30
DESTIN      92  81  88  81  87 /  60  40  40  30  30
EVERGREEN   94  73  92  72  92 /  30  30  60  30  30
WAYNESBORO  94  73  90  73  91 /  30  30  60  40  40
CAMDEN      94  73  91  72  92 /  20  30  60  30  30
CRESTVIEW   93  73  93  72  92 /  60  30  50  30  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KMOB 290938
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
438 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE EASTWARD
TODAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE MIDWESTERN STATES.
MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LOW WAS LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN GULF. THIS WILL
SETUP A DEEP SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WHICH WILL ALLOW DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE TO SURGE INTO THE AREA AS A TROPICAL WAVE IS DRAWN
NORTH. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL CLIMB TO NEARLY 2.25 INCHES
ACROSS COASTAL AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE MARINE AREA THIS
MORNING AND MOVE INLAND THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS THE
TROPICAL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE MOVE NORTH. AS HEATING
INCREASES OVER LAND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. THE GREATEST COVERAGE
WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE THE
HIGHEST DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE LOCATED. FAR NORTHERN ZONES WILL
ONLY SEE ISOLATED COVERAGE DUE TO A DRIER AIRMASS. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED BUT A FEW STRONGER STORMS COULD
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS DUE TO WATER LOADING IN A VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT.
THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE BRIEFLY THIS EVENING BEFORE INCREASING
AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE AREA
FROM THE WEST.

HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW 90S WITH A FEW MID 90S POSSIBLE
WELL INLAND WHERE RAIN CHANCES ARE LOWER. COOLER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS SOUTHERN AREA DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND RAIN. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WITH UPPER 70S NEAR THE COAST. /13

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS: MODERATE.

(SATURDAY AND SUNDAY)...DISSIPATING SFC TROF REMAINS OVER THE FCST
AREA WHILE SEVERAL WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASS OVER THE REGION
IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SLIGHTLY
LOWER THAN FRIDAY...BUT REMAIN HIGH AROUND 2 INCHES. THE MOIST
AIRMASS...COMBINED WITH THE JUST MENTIONED WEAK DYNAMICS WILL
CONTINUE TO RESULT IN A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE
WEEKEND. WILL EXPECT A PRIMARILY DIURNAL CONVECTIVE PATTERN...WITH
DAYTIME HEATING PROVIDING THE ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. WENT WITH MAX
TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY DUE TO
WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND GOOD RAIN COVERAGES...BUT MOST LOCATIONS
STILL RISING INTO THE LOWER 90S. SATURDAY NIGHT LOW TEMPS RANGING
FROM THE LOWER 70S OVER NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF FCST AREA...MID TO
UPPER 70S DOWN TOWARD THE COAST. 12/DS

&&

.LONG TERM (LABOR DAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...UNSTABLE WEATHER PATTERN
PERSISTS WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING PRODUCING DAILY
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. OVERALL CHANCES
SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN OVER THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND HOWEVER...AS UPPER RIDGING
BUILDS OVER THE AREA AND SUPPRESSES LIFT SOMEWHAT. GENERALLY EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...BECOMING ISOLATED OVERNIGHT. DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
MID 90S THROUGH THE PERIOD...OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO UPPER 70S
NORTH THROUGH SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. 12/DS

&&

.AVIATION (29/12Z ISSUANCE)...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE NEAR THE TERMINALS LATER THIS MORNING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. /13

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK...AND A LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY. MOISTURE WILL SPREAD
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...AND WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN WILL BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MARINE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. /13

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO HEADLINES OR CONCERNS WITH HIGH HUMIDITY AND DAILY
RAINFALL EXPECTED. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      92  76  90  76  90 /  60  40  50  30  30
PENSACOLA   92  78  91  78  89 /  60  40  50  30  30
DESTIN      92  81  88  81  87 /  60  40  40  30  30
EVERGREEN   94  73  92  72  92 /  30  30  60  30  30
WAYNESBORO  94  73  90  73  91 /  30  30  60  40  40
CAMDEN      94  73  91  72  92 /  20  30  60  30  30
CRESTVIEW   93  73  93  72  92 /  60  30  50  30  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMOB 290938
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
438 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE EASTWARD
TODAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE MIDWESTERN STATES.
MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LOW WAS LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN GULF. THIS WILL
SETUP A DEEP SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WHICH WILL ALLOW DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE TO SURGE INTO THE AREA AS A TROPICAL WAVE IS DRAWN
NORTH. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL CLIMB TO NEARLY 2.25 INCHES
ACROSS COASTAL AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE MARINE AREA THIS
MORNING AND MOVE INLAND THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS THE
TROPICAL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE MOVE NORTH. AS HEATING
INCREASES OVER LAND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. THE GREATEST COVERAGE
WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE THE
HIGHEST DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE LOCATED. FAR NORTHERN ZONES WILL
ONLY SEE ISOLATED COVERAGE DUE TO A DRIER AIRMASS. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED BUT A FEW STRONGER STORMS COULD
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS DUE TO WATER LOADING IN A VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT.
THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE BRIEFLY THIS EVENING BEFORE INCREASING
AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE AREA
FROM THE WEST.

HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW 90S WITH A FEW MID 90S POSSIBLE
WELL INLAND WHERE RAIN CHANCES ARE LOWER. COOLER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS SOUTHERN AREA DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND RAIN. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WITH UPPER 70S NEAR THE COAST. /13

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS: MODERATE.

(SATURDAY AND SUNDAY)...DISSIPATING SFC TROF REMAINS OVER THE FCST
AREA WHILE SEVERAL WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASS OVER THE REGION
IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SLIGHTLY
LOWER THAN FRIDAY...BUT REMAIN HIGH AROUND 2 INCHES. THE MOIST
AIRMASS...COMBINED WITH THE JUST MENTIONED WEAK DYNAMICS WILL
CONTINUE TO RESULT IN A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE
WEEKEND. WILL EXPECT A PRIMARILY DIURNAL CONVECTIVE PATTERN...WITH
DAYTIME HEATING PROVIDING THE ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. WENT WITH MAX
TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY DUE TO
WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND GOOD RAIN COVERAGES...BUT MOST LOCATIONS
STILL RISING INTO THE LOWER 90S. SATURDAY NIGHT LOW TEMPS RANGING
FROM THE LOWER 70S OVER NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF FCST AREA...MID TO
UPPER 70S DOWN TOWARD THE COAST. 12/DS

&&

.LONG TERM (LABOR DAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...UNSTABLE WEATHER PATTERN
PERSISTS WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING PRODUCING DAILY
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. OVERALL CHANCES
SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN OVER THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND HOWEVER...AS UPPER RIDGING
BUILDS OVER THE AREA AND SUPPRESSES LIFT SOMEWHAT. GENERALLY EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...BECOMING ISOLATED OVERNIGHT. DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
MID 90S THROUGH THE PERIOD...OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO UPPER 70S
NORTH THROUGH SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. 12/DS

&&

.AVIATION (29/12Z ISSUANCE)...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE NEAR THE TERMINALS LATER THIS MORNING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. /13

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK...AND A LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY. MOISTURE WILL SPREAD
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...AND WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN WILL BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MARINE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. /13

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO HEADLINES OR CONCERNS WITH HIGH HUMIDITY AND DAILY
RAINFALL EXPECTED. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      92  76  90  76  90 /  60  40  50  30  30
PENSACOLA   92  78  91  78  89 /  60  40  50  30  30
DESTIN      92  81  88  81  87 /  60  40  40  30  30
EVERGREEN   94  73  92  72  92 /  30  30  60  30  30
WAYNESBORO  94  73  90  73  91 /  30  30  60  40  40
CAMDEN      94  73  91  72  92 /  20  30  60  30  30
CRESTVIEW   93  73  93  72  92 /  60  30  50  30  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KMOB 290500
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1200 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.AVIATION [29.06Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION]...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT...THOUGH PATCHY MVFR FOG MAY STILL
DEVELOP ACROSS A FEW SPOTS. MOISTURE WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO INTO OUR REGION FRIDAY...AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE
BEST COVERAGE EXPECTED OVER COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA. LOCALIZED
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE HEAVIER CONVECTION.
/21

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 803 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014/

UPDATE...WE HAVE REMOVED POPS FROM THE FORECAST THIS EVENING AS
CONVECTION OVER INLAND AREAS HAS DISSIPATED WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO TEMPERATURE...DEWPOINT
AND WIND TO REFLECT THE CURRENT TRENDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 700 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014/

AVIATION [00Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION]...ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA
HAVE GRADUALLY DISSIPATED OVER FAR SOUTHWEST AL AND SOUTHEAST MS
EARLY THIS EVENING...AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR
THE MOST PART ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT. THE EXCEPTION COULD BE SOME
PATCHY MVFR FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. SCATTERED
SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO RE-DEVELOP LATE FRIDAY MORNING INTO FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION AS
MOISTURE SPREADS NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF. LOCALIZED MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS WITH HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THE STRONGER STORMS THAT DEVELOP. /21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      73  91  75  89  74 /  10  50  40  60  30
PENSACOLA   75  90  79  88  77 /  10  50  40  60  30
DESTIN      77  89  79  87  79 /  10  50  40  60  30
EVERGREEN   66  95  72  90  71 /  10  30  30  60  30
WAYNESBORO  66  93  72  89  71 /  10  30  30  60  40
CAMDEN      66  95  72  89  71 /  05  20  30  60  30
CRESTVIEW   67  94  74  89  72 /  10  40  30  60  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KMOB 290500
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1200 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.AVIATION [29.06Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION]...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT...THOUGH PATCHY MVFR FOG MAY STILL
DEVELOP ACROSS A FEW SPOTS. MOISTURE WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO INTO OUR REGION FRIDAY...AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE
BEST COVERAGE EXPECTED OVER COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA. LOCALIZED
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE HEAVIER CONVECTION.
/21

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 803 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014/

UPDATE...WE HAVE REMOVED POPS FROM THE FORECAST THIS EVENING AS
CONVECTION OVER INLAND AREAS HAS DISSIPATED WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO TEMPERATURE...DEWPOINT
AND WIND TO REFLECT THE CURRENT TRENDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 700 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014/

AVIATION [00Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION]...ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA
HAVE GRADUALLY DISSIPATED OVER FAR SOUTHWEST AL AND SOUTHEAST MS
EARLY THIS EVENING...AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR
THE MOST PART ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT. THE EXCEPTION COULD BE SOME
PATCHY MVFR FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. SCATTERED
SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO RE-DEVELOP LATE FRIDAY MORNING INTO FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION AS
MOISTURE SPREADS NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF. LOCALIZED MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS WITH HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THE STRONGER STORMS THAT DEVELOP. /21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      73  91  75  89  74 /  10  50  40  60  30
PENSACOLA   75  90  79  88  77 /  10  50  40  60  30
DESTIN      77  89  79  87  79 /  10  50  40  60  30
EVERGREEN   66  95  72  90  71 /  10  30  30  60  30
WAYNESBORO  66  93  72  89  71 /  10  30  30  60  40
CAMDEN      66  95  72  89  71 /  05  20  30  60  30
CRESTVIEW   67  94  74  89  72 /  10  40  30  60  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMOB 290103 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
803 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.UPDATE...WE HAVE REMOVED POPS FROM THE FORECAST THIS EVENING AS
CONVECTION OVER INLAND AREAS HAS DISSIPATED WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO TEMPERATURE...DEWPOINT
AND WIND TO REFLECT THE CURRENT TRENDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 700 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014/

AVIATION [00Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION]...ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA
HAVE GRADUALLY DISSIPATED OVER FAR SOUTHWEST AL AND SOUTHEAST MS
EARLY THIS EVENING...AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR
THE MOST PART ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT. THE EXCEPTION COULD BE SOME
PATCHY MVFR FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. SCATTERED
SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO RE-DEVELOP LATE FRIDAY MORNING INTO FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION AS
MOISTURE SPREADS NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF. LOCALIZED MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS WITH HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THE STRONGER STORMS THAT DEVELOP. /21

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 421 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014/

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON]...CURRENTLY THE
SEABREEZE HAS TRIGGERED A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI INTO MOBILE AND BALDWIN COUNTIES. THIS
HAPPENED DESPITE THE FORECAST OF 1.6 INCHES PRECIPITABLE WATER AND
LI OF +0.5 C. ADMITTEDLY THE CLOUD COVER MADE IT HARD TO DETERMINE
THESE PARAMETERS FROM THE GOES SOUNDER EARLIER TODAY...BUT IT
INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE INSITU DATA IN SOME BANDS WHERE THE CLOUD
COVER WAS LESS. CONVECTION MAY LAST A FEW MORE HOURS INTO THE FIRST
PERIOD OF THE FORECAST WITH LEFTOVER OUTFLOWS SO FOR EARLY THIS
EVENING WE LEFT IT AS A CHANCE CATEGORY. THIS WILL LEAVE IN SOME
PATCHY OVERNIGHT/MORNING FOG ONCE THE SKY CLEARS...AS REFLECTED BY
THE NAM OUTPUT FOR OVERNIGHT. THIS WOULD OCCUR BY THE DEWPOINTS
RISING THROUGH EVAPORATION AND EVAPOTRANSPIRATION. MEANWHILE...A
SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA WILL DRIFT EAST
THROUGH TONIGHT. A WEAK INVERTED BAROTROPIC TROUGH...OR EASTERLY
WAVE...WAS NOTED ON SURFACE CHARTS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT A SOMEWHAT FASTER
PACE THAN BEFORE. MODELS CALCULATE THAT THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE TOWARD THE GULF COAST LATE TONIGHT AND BE THE WEATHERMAKER
FOR OUR REGION AT LEAST THROUGH SATURDAY. CONVECTION MAY REDEVELOP
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT AS THE EASTERLY WAVE APPROACHES.
DEEP LAYER WATER VAPOR WILL INCREASE FRIDAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
RISING TO 2.25 INCHES AND LI WILL DROP TO -6 DEGREES CELSIUS. CAPE
WILL BE AROUND 2000 BUT WITH THE DEEP LAYER HUMIDITY EXPECTED THE
CONVECTION SHOULD BE RELATIVELY CALM EXCEPT AN OCCASIONAL GUST
PROPELLED BY LIQUID WATER LOADING. 77/BD

[FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT]...THE REGION WILL BE SITUATED
BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE AREA CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST
FLORIDA...THE GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA COAST AND ADJACENT WESTERN
ATLANTIC WATERS...AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION. THE SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL
REMAIN INTACT AND MAINTAIN A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE BETWEEN 2.00 TO 2.25 INCHES
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...DROPPING SLIGHTLY TO 1.9 INCHES
SATURDAY NIGHT. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE INLAND AREAS
FRIDAY AFTER MIDNIGHT FROM ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AS AN UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE MOVES OVERHEAD. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE EVEN FURTHER ON
SATURDAY TO LIKELY...DROPPING BACK TO SCATTERED SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
MAIN CONCERN WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL
BE GUSTY WINDS MOSTLY IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE...FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING AND PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHTS WILL RANGE FROM 70 TO 75 DEGREES INLAND
AREAS...WITH UPPER 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. HIGHS ON SATURDAY
WILL RANGE FROM 86 TO 90 DEGREES. /22

LONG TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...SFC TO H5 RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REBUILD SLOWLY THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE TO LEAD TO A GOOD ONSHORE FLOW AND BETTER MOISTURE
ADVECTION THROUGH MIDWEEK THROUGH WITH LIMITED FORCING IN THE MID TO
UPPER LEVELS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY
SCATTERED THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIODS GENERATED MOSTLY FROM DAYTIME
HEATING AND WEAK AFTERNOON SEABREEZE CIRCULATIONS. AS FOR TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE USE A BLEND OF THE CURRENT MAV AND ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE
LOWER 90S WELL INLAND AND THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 FURTHER SOUTH TO
THE COAST. LOWS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S THROUGH
THE PD. 32/EE

AVIATION [28.18Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF ISSUANCE]...WE EXPECT VFR
THROUGH THE NEXT 18 OR SO HOURS BUT THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA
AT THE TERMINALS FOR 30.12 TO 30.18Z FRIDAY. WE PUT IN A PROB30
GROUP FOR SAME IN THE TAFS WHICH WOULD BE REPRESENTATIVE ALONG AND
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10...ISOLATED ELSEWHERE. BEYOND 30.18Z EXPECT
LIKELY SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF OUR REGION. LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 8 KNOTS THROUGH 30.12Z FRIDAY. 77/BD

MARINE...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE MARINE AREA WILL
WEAKEN THROUGH FRIDAY. A BAROTROPIC WAVE WILL PROPAGATE NORTHWARD
OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO BRINGING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM MIDDAY FRIDAY TO SATURDAY EVENING. IT SHOWS
LITTLE EFFECT ON WIND SPEED. AS THE BAROTROPIC WAVE MOVES INLAND
OVER THE WEEKEND IT WILL DISSIPATE. BEGINNING SUNDAY...THE RIDGE
WILL PUSH IN AGAIN TO DOMINATE THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND THE
EASTERN GULF THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEAS INITIALLY UP TO NEAR 3
FEET...BUT FALLING TO AROUND 2 FEET BY THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. 77/BD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      73  91  75  89  74 /  10  50  40  60  30
PENSACOLA   75  90  79  88  77 /  10  50  40  60  30
DESTIN      77  89  79  87  79 /  10  50  40  60  30
EVERGREEN   66  95  72  90  71 /  10  30  30  60  30
WAYNESBORO  66  93  72  89  71 /  10  30  30  60  40
CAMDEN      66  95  72  89  71 /  05  20  30  60  30
CRESTVIEW   67  94  74  89  72 /  10  40  30  60  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$











000
FXUS64 KMOB 290000
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
700 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.AVIATION [00Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION]...ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA
HAVE GRADUALLY DISSIPATED OVER FAR SOUTHWEST AL AND SOUTHEAST MS
EARLY THIS EVENING...AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR
THE MOST PART ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT. THE EXCEPTION COULD BE SOME
PATCHY MVFR FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. SCATTERED
SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO RE-DEVELOP LATE FRIDAY MORNING INTO FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION AS
MOISTURE SPREADS NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF. LOCALIZED MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS WITH HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THE STRONGER STORMS THAT DEVELOP. /21

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 421 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014/

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON]...CURRENTLY THE
SEABREEZE HAS TRIGGERED A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI INTO MOBILE AND BALDWIN COUNTIES. THIS
HAPPENED DESPITE THE FORECAST OF 1.6 INCHES PRECIPITABLE WATER AND
LI OF +0.5 C. ADMITTEDLY THE CLOUD COVER MADE IT HARD TO DETERMINE
THESE PARAMETERS FROM THE GOES SOUNDER EARLIER TODAY...BUT IT
INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE INSITU DATA IN SOME BANDS WHERE THE CLOUD
COVER WAS LESS. CONVECTION MAY LAST A FEW MORE HOURS INTO THE FIRST
PERIOD OF THE FORECAST WITH LEFTOVER OUTFLOWS SO FOR EARLY THIS
EVENING WE LEFT IT AS A CHANCE CATEGORY. THIS WILL LEAVE IN SOME
PATCHY OVERNIGHT/MORNING FOG ONCE THE SKY CLEARS...AS REFLECTED BY
THE NAM OUTPUT FOR OVERNIGHT. THIS WOULD OCCUR BY THE DEWPOINTS
RISING THROUGH EVAPORATION AND EVAPOTRANSPIRATION. MEANWHILE...A
SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA WILL DRIFT EAST
THROUGH TONIGHT. A WEAK INVERTED BAROTROPIC TROUGH...OR EASTERLY
WAVE...WAS NOTED ON SURFACE CHARTS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT A SOMEWHAT FASTER
PACE THAN BEFORE. MODELS CALCULATE THAT THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE TOWARD THE GULF COAST LATE TONIGHT AND BE THE WEATHERMAKER
FOR OUR REGION AT LEAST THROUGH SATURDAY. CONVECTION MAY REDEVELOP
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT AS THE EASTERLY WAVE APPROACHES.
DEEP LAYER WATER VAPOR WILL INCREASE FRIDAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
RISING TO 2.25 INCHES AND LI WILL DROP TO -6 DEGREES CELSIUS. CAPE
WILL BE AROUND 2000 BUT WITH THE DEEP LAYER HUMIDITY EXPECTED THE
CONVECTION SHOULD BE RELATIVELY CALM EXCEPT AN OCCASIONAL GUST
PROPELLED BY LIQUID WATER LOADING. 77/BD

[FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT]...THE REGION WILL BE SITUATED
BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE AREA CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST
FLORIDA...THE GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA COAST AND ADJACENT WESTERN
ATLANTIC WATERS...AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION. THE SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL
REMAIN INTACT AND MAINTAIN A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE BETWEEN 2.00 TO 2.25 INCHES
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...DROPPING SLIGHTLY TO 1.9 INCHES
SATURDAY NIGHT. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE INLAND AREAS
FRIDAY AFTER MIDNIGHT FROM ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AS AN UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE MOVES OVERHEAD. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE EVEN FURTHER ON
SATURDAY TO LIKELY...DROPPING BACK TO SCATTERED SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
MAIN CONCERN WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL
BE GUSTY WINDS MOSTLY IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE...FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING AND PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHTS WILL RANGE FROM 70 TO 75 DEGREES INLAND
AREAS...WITH UPPER 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. HIGHS ON SATURDAY
WILL RANGE FROM 86 TO 90 DEGREES. /22

LONG TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...SFC TO H5 RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REBUILD SLOWLY THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE TO LEAD TO A GOOD ONSHORE FLOW AND BETTER MOISTURE
ADVECTION THROUGH MIDWEEK THROUGH WITH LIMITED FORCING IN THE MID TO
UPPER LEVELS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY
SCATTERED THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIODS GENERATED MOSTLY FROM DAYTIME
HEATING AND WEAK AFTERNOON SEABREEZE CIRCULATIONS. AS FOR TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE USE A BLEND OF THE CURRENT MAV AND ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE
LOWER 90S WELL INLAND AND THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 FURTHER SOUTH TO
THE COAST. LOWS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S THROUGH
THE PD. 32/EE

AVIATION [28.18Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF ISSUANCE]...WE EXPECT VFR
THROUGH THE NEXT 18 OR SO HOURS BUT THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA
AT THE TERMINALS FOR 30.12 TO 30.18Z FRIDAY. WE PUT IN A PROB30
GROUP FOR SAME IN THE TAFS WHICH WOULD BE REPRESENTATIVE ALONG AND
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10...ISOLATED ELSEWHERE. BEYOND 30.18Z EXPECT
LIKELY SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF OUR REGION. LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 8 KNOTS THROUGH 30.12Z FRIDAY. 77/BD

MARINE...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE MARINE AREA WILL
WEAKEN THROUGH FRIDAY. A BAROTROPIC WAVE WILL PROPAGATE NORTHWARD
OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO BRINGING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM MIDDAY FRIDAY TO SATURDAY EVENING. IT SHOWS
LITTLE EFFECT ON WIND SPEED. AS THE BAROTROPIC WAVE MOVES INLAND
OVER THE WEEKEND IT WILL DISSIPATE. BEGINNING SUNDAY...THE RIDGE
WILL PUSH IN AGAIN TO DOMINATE THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND THE
EASTERN GULF THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEAS INITIALLY UP TO NEAR 3
FEET...BUT FALLING TO AROUND 2 FEET BY THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. 77/BD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      73  91  75  89  74 /  30  50  40  60  30
PENSACOLA   75  90  79  88  77 /  10  50  40  60  30
DESTIN      77  89  79  87  79 /  10  50  40  60  30
EVERGREEN   66  95  72  90  71 /  05  30  30  60  30
WAYNESBORO  66  93  72  89  71 /  05  30  30  60  40
CAMDEN      66  95  72  89  71 /  05  20  30  60  30
CRESTVIEW   67  94  74  89  72 /  05  40  30  60  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KMOB 282220 CCA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
421 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON]...CURRENTLY THE
SEABREEZE HAS TRIGGERED A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI INTO MOBILE AND BALDWIN COUNTIES. THIS
HAPPENED DESPITE THE FORECAST OF 1.6 INCHES PRECIPITABLE WATER AND
LI OF +0.5 C. ADMITTEDLY THE CLOUD COVER MADE IT HARD TO DETERMINE
THESE PARAMETERS FROM THE GOES SOUNDER EARLIER TODAY...BUT IT
INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE INSITU DATA IN SOME BANDS WHERE THE CLOUD
COVER WAS LESS. CONVECTION MAY LAST A FEW MORE HOURS INTO THE FIRST
PERIOD OF THE FORECAST WITH LEFTOVER OUTFLOWS SO FOR EARLY THIS
EVENING WE LEFT IT AS A CHANCE CATEGORY. THIS WILL LEAVE IN SOME
PATCHY OVERNIGHT/MORNING FOG ONCE THE SKY CLEARS...AS REFLECTED BY
THE NAM OUTPUT FOR OVERNIGHT. THIS WOULD OCCUR BY THE DEWPOINTS
RISING THROUGH EVAPORATION AND EVAPOTRANSPIRATION. MEANWHILE...A
SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA WILL DRIFT EAST
THROUGH TONIGHT. A WEAK INVERTED BAROTROPIC TROUGH...OR EASTERLY
WAVE...WAS NOTED ON SURFACE CHARTS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT A SOMEWHAT FASTER
PACE THAN BEFORE. MODELS CALCULATE THAT THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE TOWARD THE GULF COAST LATE TONIGHT AND BE THE WEATHERMAKER
FOR OUR REGION AT LEAST THROUGH SATURDAY. CONVECTION MAY REDEVELOP
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT AS THE EASTERLY WAVE APPROACHES.
DEEP LAYER WATER VAPOR WILL INCREASE FRIDAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
RISING TO 2.25 INCHES AND LI WILL DROP TO -6 DEGREES CELSIUS. CAPE
WILL BE AROUND 2000 BUT WITH THE DEEP LAYER HUMIDITY EXPECTED THE
CONVECTION SHOULD BE RELATIVELY CALM EXCEPT AN OCCASIONAL GUST
PROPELLED BY LIQUID WATER LOADING. 77/BD

[FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT]...THE REGION WILL BE SITUATED
BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE AREA CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST
FLORIDA...THE GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA COAST AND ADJACENT WESTERN
ATLANTIC WATERS...AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION. THE SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL
REMAIN INTACT AND MAINTAIN A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE BETWEEN 2.00 TO 2.25 INCHES
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...DROPPING SLIGHTLY TO 1.9 INCHES
SATURDAY NIGHT. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE INLAND AREAS
FRIDAY AFTER MIDNIGHT FROM ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AS AN UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE MOVES OVERHEAD. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE EVEN FURTHER ON
SATURDAY TO LIKELY...DROPPING BACK TO SCATTERED SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
MAIN CONCERN WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL
BE GUSTY WINDS MOSTLY IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE...FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING AND PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHTS WILL RANGE FROM 70 TO 75 DEGREES INLAND
AREAS...WITH UPPER 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. HIGHS ON SATURDAY
WILL RANGE FROM 86 TO 90 DEGREES. /22

.LONG TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...SFC TO H5 RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REBUILD SLOWLY THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE TO LEAD TO A GOOD ONSHORE FLOW AND BETTER MOISTURE
ADVECTION THROUGH MIDWEEK THROUGH WITH LIMITED FORCING IN THE MID TO
UPPER LEVELS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY
SCATTERED THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIODS GENERATED MOSTLY FROM DAYTIME
HEATING AND WEAK AFTERNOON SEABREEZE CIRCULATIONS. AS FOR TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE USE A BLEND OF THE CURRENT MAV AND ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE
LOWER 90S WELL INLAND AND THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 FURTHER SOUTH TO
THE COAST. LOWS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S THROUGH
THE PD. 32/EE

&&

.AVIATION [28.18Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF ISSUANCE]...WE EXPECT VFR
THROUGH THE NEXT 18 OR SO HOURS BUT THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA
AT THE TERMINALS FOR 30.12 TO 30.18Z FRIDAY. WE PUT IN A PROB30
GROUP FOR SAME IN THE TAFS WHICH WOULD BE REPRESENTATIVE ALONG AND
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10...ISOLATED ELSEWHERE. BEYOND 30.18Z EXPECT
LIKELY SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF OUR REGION. LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 8 KNOTS THROUGH 30.12Z FRIDAY. 77/BD

&&

.MARINE...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE MARINE AREA WILL
WEAKEN THROUGH FRIDAY. A BAROTROPIC WAVE WILL PROPAGATE NORTHWARD
OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO BRINGING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM MIDDAY FRIDAY TO SATURDAY EVENING. IT SHOWS
LITTLE EFFECT ON WIND SPEED. AS THE BAROTROPIC WAVE MOVES INLAND
OVER THE WEEKEND IT WILL DISSIPATE. BEGINNING SUNDAY...THE RIDGE
WILL PUSH IN AGAIN TO DOMINATE THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND THE
EASTERN GULF THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEAS INITIALLY UP TO NEAR 3
FEET...BUT FALLING TO AROUND 2 FEET BY THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. 77/BD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      73  91  75  89  74 /  30  50  40  60  30
PENSACOLA   75  90  79  88  77 /  10  50  40  60  30
DESTIN      77  89  79  87  79 /  10  50  40  60  30
EVERGREEN   66  95  72  90  71 /  05  30  30  60  30
WAYNESBORO  66  93  72  89  71 /  05  30  30  60  40
CAMDEN      66  95  72  89  71 /  05  20  30  60  30
CRESTVIEW   67  94  74  89  72 /  05  40  30  60  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMOB 282220 CCA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
421 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON]...CURRENTLY THE
SEABREEZE HAS TRIGGERED A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI INTO MOBILE AND BALDWIN COUNTIES. THIS
HAPPENED DESPITE THE FORECAST OF 1.6 INCHES PRECIPITABLE WATER AND
LI OF +0.5 C. ADMITTEDLY THE CLOUD COVER MADE IT HARD TO DETERMINE
THESE PARAMETERS FROM THE GOES SOUNDER EARLIER TODAY...BUT IT
INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE INSITU DATA IN SOME BANDS WHERE THE CLOUD
COVER WAS LESS. CONVECTION MAY LAST A FEW MORE HOURS INTO THE FIRST
PERIOD OF THE FORECAST WITH LEFTOVER OUTFLOWS SO FOR EARLY THIS
EVENING WE LEFT IT AS A CHANCE CATEGORY. THIS WILL LEAVE IN SOME
PATCHY OVERNIGHT/MORNING FOG ONCE THE SKY CLEARS...AS REFLECTED BY
THE NAM OUTPUT FOR OVERNIGHT. THIS WOULD OCCUR BY THE DEWPOINTS
RISING THROUGH EVAPORATION AND EVAPOTRANSPIRATION. MEANWHILE...A
SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA WILL DRIFT EAST
THROUGH TONIGHT. A WEAK INVERTED BAROTROPIC TROUGH...OR EASTERLY
WAVE...WAS NOTED ON SURFACE CHARTS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT A SOMEWHAT FASTER
PACE THAN BEFORE. MODELS CALCULATE THAT THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE TOWARD THE GULF COAST LATE TONIGHT AND BE THE WEATHERMAKER
FOR OUR REGION AT LEAST THROUGH SATURDAY. CONVECTION MAY REDEVELOP
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT AS THE EASTERLY WAVE APPROACHES.
DEEP LAYER WATER VAPOR WILL INCREASE FRIDAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
RISING TO 2.25 INCHES AND LI WILL DROP TO -6 DEGREES CELSIUS. CAPE
WILL BE AROUND 2000 BUT WITH THE DEEP LAYER HUMIDITY EXPECTED THE
CONVECTION SHOULD BE RELATIVELY CALM EXCEPT AN OCCASIONAL GUST
PROPELLED BY LIQUID WATER LOADING. 77/BD

[FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT]...THE REGION WILL BE SITUATED
BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE AREA CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST
FLORIDA...THE GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA COAST AND ADJACENT WESTERN
ATLANTIC WATERS...AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION. THE SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL
REMAIN INTACT AND MAINTAIN A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE BETWEEN 2.00 TO 2.25 INCHES
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...DROPPING SLIGHTLY TO 1.9 INCHES
SATURDAY NIGHT. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE INLAND AREAS
FRIDAY AFTER MIDNIGHT FROM ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AS AN UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE MOVES OVERHEAD. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE EVEN FURTHER ON
SATURDAY TO LIKELY...DROPPING BACK TO SCATTERED SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
MAIN CONCERN WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL
BE GUSTY WINDS MOSTLY IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE...FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING AND PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHTS WILL RANGE FROM 70 TO 75 DEGREES INLAND
AREAS...WITH UPPER 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. HIGHS ON SATURDAY
WILL RANGE FROM 86 TO 90 DEGREES. /22

.LONG TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...SFC TO H5 RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REBUILD SLOWLY THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE TO LEAD TO A GOOD ONSHORE FLOW AND BETTER MOISTURE
ADVECTION THROUGH MIDWEEK THROUGH WITH LIMITED FORCING IN THE MID TO
UPPER LEVELS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY
SCATTERED THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIODS GENERATED MOSTLY FROM DAYTIME
HEATING AND WEAK AFTERNOON SEABREEZE CIRCULATIONS. AS FOR TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE USE A BLEND OF THE CURRENT MAV AND ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE
LOWER 90S WELL INLAND AND THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 FURTHER SOUTH TO
THE COAST. LOWS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S THROUGH
THE PD. 32/EE

&&

.AVIATION [28.18Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF ISSUANCE]...WE EXPECT VFR
THROUGH THE NEXT 18 OR SO HOURS BUT THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA
AT THE TERMINALS FOR 30.12 TO 30.18Z FRIDAY. WE PUT IN A PROB30
GROUP FOR SAME IN THE TAFS WHICH WOULD BE REPRESENTATIVE ALONG AND
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10...ISOLATED ELSEWHERE. BEYOND 30.18Z EXPECT
LIKELY SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF OUR REGION. LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 8 KNOTS THROUGH 30.12Z FRIDAY. 77/BD

&&

.MARINE...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE MARINE AREA WILL
WEAKEN THROUGH FRIDAY. A BAROTROPIC WAVE WILL PROPAGATE NORTHWARD
OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO BRINGING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM MIDDAY FRIDAY TO SATURDAY EVENING. IT SHOWS
LITTLE EFFECT ON WIND SPEED. AS THE BAROTROPIC WAVE MOVES INLAND
OVER THE WEEKEND IT WILL DISSIPATE. BEGINNING SUNDAY...THE RIDGE
WILL PUSH IN AGAIN TO DOMINATE THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND THE
EASTERN GULF THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEAS INITIALLY UP TO NEAR 3
FEET...BUT FALLING TO AROUND 2 FEET BY THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. 77/BD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      73  91  75  89  74 /  30  50  40  60  30
PENSACOLA   75  90  79  88  77 /  10  50  40  60  30
DESTIN      77  89  79  87  79 /  10  50  40  60  30
EVERGREEN   66  95  72  90  71 /  05  30  30  60  30
WAYNESBORO  66  93  72  89  71 /  05  30  30  60  40
CAMDEN      66  95  72  89  71 /  05  20  30  60  30
CRESTVIEW   67  94  74  89  72 /  05  40  30  60  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMOB 282120
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
421 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON]...CURRENTLY THE
SEABREEZE HAS TRIGGERED A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI INTO MOBILE AND BALDWIN COUNTIES. THIS
HAPPENED DESPITE THE FORECAST OF 1.6 INCHES PRECIPITABLE WATER AND
LI OF +0.5 C. ADMITTEDLY THE CLOUD COVER MADE IT HARD TO DETERMINE
THESE PARAMETERS FROM THE GOES SOUNDER EARLIER TODAY...BUT IT
INITIALIZED  WELL WITH THE INSITU DATA IN SOME BANDS WHERE THE CLOUD
COVER WAS LESS. CONVECTION MAY LAST A FEW MORE HOURS INTO THE FIRST
PERIOD OF THE FORECAST WITH LEFTOVER OUTFLOWS SO FOR EARLY THIS
EVENING WE LEFT IT AS A CHICANE CATEGORY. THIS WILL LEAVE IN SOME
PATCHY OVERNIGHT/MORNING FOG ONCE THE SKY CLEARS...AS REFLECTED BY
THE NAM OUTPUT FOR OVERNIGHT. THIS WOULD OCCUR BY THE DEWPOINTS
RISING THROUGH EVAPORATION AND EVAPOTRANSPIRATION. MEANWHILE...A
SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA WILL DRIFT EAST
THROUGH TONIGHT. A WEAK INVERTED BAROTROPIC TROUGH...OR EASTERLY
WAVE...WAS NOTED ON SURFACE CHARTS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT A SOMEWHAT FASTER
PACE THAN BEFORE. MODELS CALCULATE THAT THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE TOWARD THE GULF COAST LATE TONIGHT AND BE THE WEATHERMAKER
FOR OUR REGION AT LEAST THROUGH SATURDAY. CONVECTION MAY REDEVELOP
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT AS THE EASTERLY WAVE APPROACHES.
DEEP LAYER WATER VAPOR WILL INCREASE FRIDAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
RISING TO 2.25 INCHES AND LI WILL DROP TO -6 DEGREES CELSIUS. CAPE
WILL BE AROUND 2000 BUT WITH THE DEEP LAYER HUMIDITY EXPECTED THE
CONVECTION SHOULD BE RELATIVELY CALM EXCEPT AN OCCASIONAL GUST
PROPELLED BY LIQUID WATER LOADING. 77/BD

[FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT]...THE REGION WILL BE SITUATED
BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE AREA CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST
FLORIDA...THE GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA COAST AND ADJACENT WESTERN
ATLANTIC WATERS...AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION. THE SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL
REMAIN INTACT AND MAINTAIN A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE BETWEEN 2.00 TO 2.25 INCHES
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...DROPPING SLIGHTLY TO 1.9 INCHES
SATURDAY NIGHT. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE INLAND AREAS
FRIDAY AFTER MIDNIGHT FROM ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AS AN UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE MOVE OVERHEAD. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE EVEN FURTHER ON
SATURDAY TO LIKELY...DROPPING BACK TO SCATTERED SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
MAIN CONCERN WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL
BE GUSTY WINDS MOSTLY IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE...FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING AND PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHTS WILL RANGE FROM 70 TO 75 DEGREES INLAND
AREAS...WITH UPPER 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. HIGHS ON SATURDAY
WILL RANGE FROM 86 TO 90 DEGREES. /22

.LONG TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...SFC TO H5 RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REBUILD SLOWLY THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE TO LEAD TO A GOOD ONSHORE FLOW AND BETTER MOISTURE
ADVECTION THROUGH MIDWEEK THROUGH WITH LIMITED FORCING IN THE MID TO
UPPER LEVELS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY
SCATTERED THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIODS GENERATED MOSTLY FROM DAYTIME
HEATING AND WEAK AFTERNOON SEABREEZE CIRCULATIONS. AS FOR TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE USE A BLEND OF THE CURRENT MAV AND ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE
LOWER 90S WELL INLAND AND THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 FURTHER SOUTH TO
THE COAST. LOWS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S THROUGH
THE PD. 32/EE

&&

.AVIATION [28.18Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF ISSUANCE]...WE EXPECT VFR
THROUGH THE NEXT 18 OR SO HOURS BUT THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA
AT THE TERMINALS FOR 30.12 TO 30.18Z FRIDAY. WE PUT IN A PROB30
GROUP FOR SAME IN THE TAFS WHICH WOULD BE REPRESENTATIVE ALONG AND
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10...ISOLATED ELSEWHERE. BEYOND 30.18Z EXPECT
LIKELY SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF OUR REGION. LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 8 KNOTS THROUGH 30.12Z FRIDAY. 77/BD

&&

.MARINE...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE MARINE AREA WILL
WEAKEN THROUGH FRIDAY. A BAROTROPIC WAVE WILL PROPAGATE NORTHWARD
OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO BRINGING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM MIDDAY FRIDAY TO SATURDAY EVENING. IT SHOWS
LITTLE EFFECT ON WIND SPEED. AS THE BAROTROPIC WAVE MOVES INLAND
OVER THE WEEKEND IT WILL DISSIPATE. BEGINNING SUNDAY...THE RIDGE
WILL PUSH IN AGAIN TO DOMINATE THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND THE
EASTERN GULF THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEAS INITIALLY UP TO NEAR 3
FEET...BUT FALLING TO AROUND 2 FEET BY THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. 77/BD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      73  91  75  89  74 /  30  50  40  60  30
PENSACOLA   75  90  79  88  77 /  10  50  40  60  30
DESTIN      77  89  79  87  79 /  10  50  40  60  30
EVERGREEN   66  95  72  90  71 /  05  30  30  60  30
WAYNESBORO  66  93  72  89  71 /  05  30  30  60  40
CAMDEN      66  95  72  89  71 /  05  20  30  60  30
CRESTVIEW   67  94  74  89  72 /  05  40  30  60  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KMOB 282120
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
421 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON]...CURRENTLY THE
SEABREEZE HAS TRIGGERED A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI INTO MOBILE AND BALDWIN COUNTIES. THIS
HAPPENED DESPITE THE FORECAST OF 1.6 INCHES PRECIPITABLE WATER AND
LI OF +0.5 C. ADMITTEDLY THE CLOUD COVER MADE IT HARD TO DETERMINE
THESE PARAMETERS FROM THE GOES SOUNDER EARLIER TODAY...BUT IT
INITIALIZED  WELL WITH THE INSITU DATA IN SOME BANDS WHERE THE CLOUD
COVER WAS LESS. CONVECTION MAY LAST A FEW MORE HOURS INTO THE FIRST
PERIOD OF THE FORECAST WITH LEFTOVER OUTFLOWS SO FOR EARLY THIS
EVENING WE LEFT IT AS A CHICANE CATEGORY. THIS WILL LEAVE IN SOME
PATCHY OVERNIGHT/MORNING FOG ONCE THE SKY CLEARS...AS REFLECTED BY
THE NAM OUTPUT FOR OVERNIGHT. THIS WOULD OCCUR BY THE DEWPOINTS
RISING THROUGH EVAPORATION AND EVAPOTRANSPIRATION. MEANWHILE...A
SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA WILL DRIFT EAST
THROUGH TONIGHT. A WEAK INVERTED BAROTROPIC TROUGH...OR EASTERLY
WAVE...WAS NOTED ON SURFACE CHARTS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT A SOMEWHAT FASTER
PACE THAN BEFORE. MODELS CALCULATE THAT THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE TOWARD THE GULF COAST LATE TONIGHT AND BE THE WEATHERMAKER
FOR OUR REGION AT LEAST THROUGH SATURDAY. CONVECTION MAY REDEVELOP
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT AS THE EASTERLY WAVE APPROACHES.
DEEP LAYER WATER VAPOR WILL INCREASE FRIDAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
RISING TO 2.25 INCHES AND LI WILL DROP TO -6 DEGREES CELSIUS. CAPE
WILL BE AROUND 2000 BUT WITH THE DEEP LAYER HUMIDITY EXPECTED THE
CONVECTION SHOULD BE RELATIVELY CALM EXCEPT AN OCCASIONAL GUST
PROPELLED BY LIQUID WATER LOADING. 77/BD

[FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT]...THE REGION WILL BE SITUATED
BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE AREA CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST
FLORIDA...THE GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA COAST AND ADJACENT WESTERN
ATLANTIC WATERS...AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION. THE SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL
REMAIN INTACT AND MAINTAIN A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE BETWEEN 2.00 TO 2.25 INCHES
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...DROPPING SLIGHTLY TO 1.9 INCHES
SATURDAY NIGHT. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE INLAND AREAS
FRIDAY AFTER MIDNIGHT FROM ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AS AN UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE MOVE OVERHEAD. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE EVEN FURTHER ON
SATURDAY TO LIKELY...DROPPING BACK TO SCATTERED SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
MAIN CONCERN WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL
BE GUSTY WINDS MOSTLY IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE...FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING AND PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHTS WILL RANGE FROM 70 TO 75 DEGREES INLAND
AREAS...WITH UPPER 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. HIGHS ON SATURDAY
WILL RANGE FROM 86 TO 90 DEGREES. /22

.LONG TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...SFC TO H5 RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REBUILD SLOWLY THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE TO LEAD TO A GOOD ONSHORE FLOW AND BETTER MOISTURE
ADVECTION THROUGH MIDWEEK THROUGH WITH LIMITED FORCING IN THE MID TO
UPPER LEVELS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY
SCATTERED THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIODS GENERATED MOSTLY FROM DAYTIME
HEATING AND WEAK AFTERNOON SEABREEZE CIRCULATIONS. AS FOR TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE USE A BLEND OF THE CURRENT MAV AND ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE
LOWER 90S WELL INLAND AND THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 FURTHER SOUTH TO
THE COAST. LOWS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S THROUGH
THE PD. 32/EE

&&

.AVIATION [28.18Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF ISSUANCE]...WE EXPECT VFR
THROUGH THE NEXT 18 OR SO HOURS BUT THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA
AT THE TERMINALS FOR 30.12 TO 30.18Z FRIDAY. WE PUT IN A PROB30
GROUP FOR SAME IN THE TAFS WHICH WOULD BE REPRESENTATIVE ALONG AND
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10...ISOLATED ELSEWHERE. BEYOND 30.18Z EXPECT
LIKELY SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF OUR REGION. LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 8 KNOTS THROUGH 30.12Z FRIDAY. 77/BD

&&

.MARINE...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE MARINE AREA WILL
WEAKEN THROUGH FRIDAY. A BAROTROPIC WAVE WILL PROPAGATE NORTHWARD
OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO BRINGING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM MIDDAY FRIDAY TO SATURDAY EVENING. IT SHOWS
LITTLE EFFECT ON WIND SPEED. AS THE BAROTROPIC WAVE MOVES INLAND
OVER THE WEEKEND IT WILL DISSIPATE. BEGINNING SUNDAY...THE RIDGE
WILL PUSH IN AGAIN TO DOMINATE THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND THE
EASTERN GULF THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEAS INITIALLY UP TO NEAR 3
FEET...BUT FALLING TO AROUND 2 FEET BY THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. 77/BD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      73  91  75  89  74 /  30  50  40  60  30
PENSACOLA   75  90  79  88  77 /  10  50  40  60  30
DESTIN      77  89  79  87  79 /  10  50  40  60  30
EVERGREEN   66  95  72  90  71 /  05  30  30  60  30
WAYNESBORO  66  93  72  89  71 /  05  30  30  60  40
CAMDEN      66  95  72  89  71 /  05  20  30  60  30
CRESTVIEW   67  94  74  89  72 /  05  40  30  60  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$











000
FXUS64 KMOB 282022
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
322 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...BAND OF CONVECTION JUST FORMED ALONG THE SEABREEZE
BUT LIMITED TO MOBILE AREA AND POINTS EAST. MOVED UP POP TO CHANCE
CATEGORY...ALONG WITH QPF AND CLOUD COVER.

77/BD



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      91  73  91  75  89 /  40  05  50  40  60
PENSACOLA   92  75  90  79  88 /  20  10  50  40  60
DESTIN      91  77  89  79  87 /  20  10  50  40  60
EVERGREEN   93  66  95  72  90 /  05  05  30  30  60
WAYNESBORO  93  66  93  72  89 /  10  05  30  30  60
CAMDEN      94  66  95  72  89 /  05  05  20  30  60
CRESTVIEW   94  67  94  74  89 /  05  05  40  30  60

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KMOB 282022
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
322 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...BAND OF CONVECTION JUST FORMED ALONG THE SEABREEZE
BUT LIMITED TO MOBILE AREA AND POINTS EAST. MOVED UP POP TO CHANCE
CATEGORY...ALONG WITH QPF AND CLOUD COVER.

77/BD



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      91  73  91  75  89 /  40  05  50  40  60
PENSACOLA   92  75  90  79  88 /  20  10  50  40  60
DESTIN      91  77  89  79  87 /  20  10  50  40  60
EVERGREEN   93  66  95  72  90 /  05  05  30  30  60
WAYNESBORO  93  66  93  72  89 /  10  05  30  30  60
CAMDEN      94  66  95  72  89 /  05  05  20  30  60
CRESTVIEW   94  67  94  74  89 /  05  05  40  30  60

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$











000
FXUS64 KMOB 281815
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
115 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.AVIATION UPDATE...WE EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE NEXT 18 OR SO HOURS BUT
THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA AT THE TERMINALS FOR 30.12 TO 30.18Z
FRIDAY. WE PUT IN A PROB30 GROUP FOR SAME IN THE TAFS WHICH WOULD BE
REPRESENTATIVE ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10...ISOLATED ELSEWHERE.
BEYOND 30.18Z EXPECT LIKELY SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF OUR
REGION. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 8 KNOTS THROUGH 30.12Z FRIDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 512 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014/

SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE
NORTH AND EAST OF THE FCST AREA SHIFTS MORE TO THE EAST THROUGH
TONIGHT. TO THE SOUTH...A WEAK INVERTED TROF (OR EASTERLY WAVE) IS
NOTED ON SFC MAPS AS WELL AS SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER FAR SOUTHEASTERN
GULF MOVING EVER SO SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. THIS FEATURE IS
PROGGED BY MODELS TO CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY UP TOWARD THE GULF
COAST REGION BY LATE TONIGHT (AND CONTINUE INTO AND OVER THE REGION
INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE MID/LONG TERM FCST PERIOD). BEFORE THIS
FEATURE ARRIVES...WILL HAVE ANOTHER MOSTLY RAINFREE DAY AND NIGHT
ACROSS THE LOCAL FCST AREA. VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY
TO PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE ENTIRE FCST AREA TODAY AND THEN MOSTLY
CLEAR TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY INLAND (BUT A FEW MORE CLOUDS CLOSER TO
THE COAST AS MOISTURE/LIFT INCREASE WITH THE WEAK TROF MOVING IN
FROM THE GULF). WILL ONCE AGAIN SEE ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING CLOSE TO THE COAST IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION...AND POSSIBLY EXTENDING A LITTLE
FARTHER INLAND OVER WESTERN THIRD OF THE FCST AREA WHERE THERE IS
SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE. ANY CONVECTION LINGERING INTO THE EVENING
WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT MAYBE REDEVELOP OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT AS THE TROF APPROACHES. HIGH TEMPS TODAY
AGAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...PRIMARILY IN
THE LOW TO MID 90S. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT NEAR OR A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL
OVER INTERIOR EASTERN ZONES...DROPPING TO THE MIDDLE 60S. ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE FCST AREA TONIGHT...MIN TEMPS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S. 12/DS

LONG TERM...[FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY]...UPPER RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE
DEEP SOUTH MOSTLY EAST OF TEXAS IS STILL PROGGED TO WEAKEN SLOWLY
GENERALLY FROM WEST TO EAST IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING SHORT WAVE
TROF OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. EARLIER MODEL RUNS SHOWED THIS MID
LEVEL IMPULSE DIGGING OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY LATE FRI INTO SAT
SUPPORTING BETTER LIFT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE FRI INTO
SAT BUT CURRENT TRENDS NOW SHOW LESS LIFT TO THE EAST BECAUSE MAIN
UPPER SHORT WAVE TO THE NW NOW LOOKS TO LIFT NE AND DAMPEN MOSTLY
WEST OF THE MS RIVER...OR BASICALLY EARLIER THAN ANTICIPATED. THIS
PATTERN WILL STILL RESULT IN GOOD COVERAGE OVER MUCH OF OUR WESTERN
HALF OF THE CWFA WITH LESS COVERAGE GENERALLY EAST OF THE I-65
CORRIDOR, GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO OCCUR
OVER THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS AFFECTING IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS DUE
TO A PERSISTENT SFC TROF STRETCHING FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF TO
THE TX COAST. WITH THIS HAVE TRIMMED BACK ON POPS FOR FRI INTO SAT
WITH SLIGHTLY LESS COVERAGE TO THE EAST. AS THE BETTER MOISTURE IN
THE LOW LEVELS CONTINUES TO ADVECT NORTH LATE IN THE WEEK AND OVER
THE WEEKEND EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS FRI THROUGH SUN. THE
MAIN CONCERN WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL
BE GUSTY WINDS MOSTLY IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE...FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING AND PERIODS OF VERY HEAVY RAIN. AS FOR TEMPS WILL
LEAN TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE MAV AND ECMWF TWEAKING THESE VALUES DOWN
A FEW DEGREES MOSTLY FOR CONSISTENCY WITH SURROUNDING WFOS. HIGHS
WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 90S OVER THE NORTHERN HALF AND THE UPPER
80S TO NEAR 90 FURTHER SOUTH BOTH FRI AND SAT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
MIDDLE 70S FRI AND SAT NIGHT.

[SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...SFC TO H5 RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REBUILD SLOWLY THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS PATTER WILL CONTINUE TO LEAD
TO A GOOD ONSHORE FLOW AND BETTER MOISTURE ADVECTION THROUGH MIDWEEK
THROUGH WITH LIMITED FORCING IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY SCATTERED THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIODS GENERATED MOSTLY FROM DAYTIME HEATING AND WEAK AFTERNOON
SEABREEZE CIRCULATIONS. AS FOR TEMPS WILL CONTINUE USE A BLEND OF THE
CURRENT MAV AND ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS WILL
CONTINUE TO REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 90S WELL INLAND AND THE UPPER
80S TO NEAR 90 FURTHER SOUTH TO THE COAST. LOWS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S THROUGH THE PD. 32/EE

AVIATION...(28/12Z ISSUANCE)...MAINLY A VFR FCST THROUGH NEXT 24
HOURS. WILL CARRY VCTS LATE AFTERNOON NEAR THE COASTAL TERMINALS
(MOB...BFM...PNS) BUT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE VERY
ISOLATED. OTHERWISE A PREDOMINANT LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY SFC WIND FLOW
EXPECTED. 12/DS

MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE MARINE AREA OVER
THE SOUTHERN STATES WILL WEAKEN THROUGH FRIDAY AS A INVERTED TROF
(EASTERLY WAVE) MOVES NORTH ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE
TROF MOVES INLAND AND DISSIPATES OVER THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE...A
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND THE
EASTERN GULF. WITH THIS A GENERAL LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEAS
INITIALLY UP TO NEAR 4 FEET...BUT DECREASING TO AROUND 2 FEET BY THE
MIDDLE AND END OF THE FCST PERIOD. 12/DS

FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      73  91  76  88  77 /  05  40  40  60  30
PENSACOLA   74  91  79  88  79 /  05  40  40  60  30
DESTIN      77  90  79  87  79 /  05  50  40  60  30
EVERGREEN   65  94  73  90  74 /  05  20  30  60  30
WAYNESBORO  68  93  74  89  73 /  05  20  30  60  40
CAMDEN      66  95  74  92  75 /  05  20  30  60  30
CRESTVIEW   67  92  73  90  73 /  05  40  30  60  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMOB 281815
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
115 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.AVIATION UPDATE...WE EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE NEXT 18 OR SO HOURS BUT
THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA AT THE TERMINALS FOR 30.12 TO 30.18Z
FRIDAY. WE PUT IN A PROB30 GROUP FOR SAME IN THE TAFS WHICH WOULD BE
REPRESENTATIVE ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10...ISOLATED ELSEWHERE.
BEYOND 30.18Z EXPECT LIKELY SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF OUR
REGION. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 8 KNOTS THROUGH 30.12Z FRIDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 512 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014/

SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE
NORTH AND EAST OF THE FCST AREA SHIFTS MORE TO THE EAST THROUGH
TONIGHT. TO THE SOUTH...A WEAK INVERTED TROF (OR EASTERLY WAVE) IS
NOTED ON SFC MAPS AS WELL AS SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER FAR SOUTHEASTERN
GULF MOVING EVER SO SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. THIS FEATURE IS
PROGGED BY MODELS TO CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY UP TOWARD THE GULF
COAST REGION BY LATE TONIGHT (AND CONTINUE INTO AND OVER THE REGION
INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE MID/LONG TERM FCST PERIOD). BEFORE THIS
FEATURE ARRIVES...WILL HAVE ANOTHER MOSTLY RAINFREE DAY AND NIGHT
ACROSS THE LOCAL FCST AREA. VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY
TO PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE ENTIRE FCST AREA TODAY AND THEN MOSTLY
CLEAR TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY INLAND (BUT A FEW MORE CLOUDS CLOSER TO
THE COAST AS MOISTURE/LIFT INCREASE WITH THE WEAK TROF MOVING IN
FROM THE GULF). WILL ONCE AGAIN SEE ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING CLOSE TO THE COAST IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION...AND POSSIBLY EXTENDING A LITTLE
FARTHER INLAND OVER WESTERN THIRD OF THE FCST AREA WHERE THERE IS
SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE. ANY CONVECTION LINGERING INTO THE EVENING
WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT MAYBE REDEVELOP OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT AS THE TROF APPROACHES. HIGH TEMPS TODAY
AGAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...PRIMARILY IN
THE LOW TO MID 90S. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT NEAR OR A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL
OVER INTERIOR EASTERN ZONES...DROPPING TO THE MIDDLE 60S. ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE FCST AREA TONIGHT...MIN TEMPS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S. 12/DS

LONG TERM...[FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY]...UPPER RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE
DEEP SOUTH MOSTLY EAST OF TEXAS IS STILL PROGGED TO WEAKEN SLOWLY
GENERALLY FROM WEST TO EAST IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING SHORT WAVE
TROF OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. EARLIER MODEL RUNS SHOWED THIS MID
LEVEL IMPULSE DIGGING OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY LATE FRI INTO SAT
SUPPORTING BETTER LIFT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE FRI INTO
SAT BUT CURRENT TRENDS NOW SHOW LESS LIFT TO THE EAST BECAUSE MAIN
UPPER SHORT WAVE TO THE NW NOW LOOKS TO LIFT NE AND DAMPEN MOSTLY
WEST OF THE MS RIVER...OR BASICALLY EARLIER THAN ANTICIPATED. THIS
PATTERN WILL STILL RESULT IN GOOD COVERAGE OVER MUCH OF OUR WESTERN
HALF OF THE CWFA WITH LESS COVERAGE GENERALLY EAST OF THE I-65
CORRIDOR, GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO OCCUR
OVER THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS AFFECTING IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS DUE
TO A PERSISTENT SFC TROF STRETCHING FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF TO
THE TX COAST. WITH THIS HAVE TRIMMED BACK ON POPS FOR FRI INTO SAT
WITH SLIGHTLY LESS COVERAGE TO THE EAST. AS THE BETTER MOISTURE IN
THE LOW LEVELS CONTINUES TO ADVECT NORTH LATE IN THE WEEK AND OVER
THE WEEKEND EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS FRI THROUGH SUN. THE
MAIN CONCERN WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL
BE GUSTY WINDS MOSTLY IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE...FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING AND PERIODS OF VERY HEAVY RAIN. AS FOR TEMPS WILL
LEAN TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE MAV AND ECMWF TWEAKING THESE VALUES DOWN
A FEW DEGREES MOSTLY FOR CONSISTENCY WITH SURROUNDING WFOS. HIGHS
WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 90S OVER THE NORTHERN HALF AND THE UPPER
80S TO NEAR 90 FURTHER SOUTH BOTH FRI AND SAT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
MIDDLE 70S FRI AND SAT NIGHT.

[SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...SFC TO H5 RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REBUILD SLOWLY THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS PATTER WILL CONTINUE TO LEAD
TO A GOOD ONSHORE FLOW AND BETTER MOISTURE ADVECTION THROUGH MIDWEEK
THROUGH WITH LIMITED FORCING IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY SCATTERED THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIODS GENERATED MOSTLY FROM DAYTIME HEATING AND WEAK AFTERNOON
SEABREEZE CIRCULATIONS. AS FOR TEMPS WILL CONTINUE USE A BLEND OF THE
CURRENT MAV AND ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS WILL
CONTINUE TO REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 90S WELL INLAND AND THE UPPER
80S TO NEAR 90 FURTHER SOUTH TO THE COAST. LOWS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S THROUGH THE PD. 32/EE

AVIATION...(28/12Z ISSUANCE)...MAINLY A VFR FCST THROUGH NEXT 24
HOURS. WILL CARRY VCTS LATE AFTERNOON NEAR THE COASTAL TERMINALS
(MOB...BFM...PNS) BUT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE VERY
ISOLATED. OTHERWISE A PREDOMINANT LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY SFC WIND FLOW
EXPECTED. 12/DS

MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE MARINE AREA OVER
THE SOUTHERN STATES WILL WEAKEN THROUGH FRIDAY AS A INVERTED TROF
(EASTERLY WAVE) MOVES NORTH ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE
TROF MOVES INLAND AND DISSIPATES OVER THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE...A
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND THE
EASTERN GULF. WITH THIS A GENERAL LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEAS
INITIALLY UP TO NEAR 4 FEET...BUT DECREASING TO AROUND 2 FEET BY THE
MIDDLE AND END OF THE FCST PERIOD. 12/DS

FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      73  91  76  88  77 /  05  40  40  60  30
PENSACOLA   74  91  79  88  79 /  05  40  40  60  30
DESTIN      77  90  79  87  79 /  05  50  40  60  30
EVERGREEN   65  94  73  90  74 /  05  20  30  60  30
WAYNESBORO  68  93  74  89  73 /  05  20  30  60  40
CAMDEN      66  95  74  92  75 /  05  20  30  60  30
CRESTVIEW   67  92  73  90  73 /  05  40  30  60  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMOB 281012
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
512 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE
NORTH AND EAST OF THE FCST AREA SHIFTS MORE TO THE EAST THROUGH
TONIGHT. TO THE SOUTH...A WEAK INVERTED TROF (OR EASTERLY WAVE) IS
NOTED ON SFC MAPS AS WELL AS SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER FAR SOUTHEASTERN
GULF MOVING EVER SO SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. THIS FEATURE IS
PROGGED BY MODELS TO CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY UP TOWARD THE GULF
COAST REGION BY LATE TONIGHT (AND CONTINUE INTO AND OVER THE REGION
INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE MID/LONG TERM FCST PERIOD). BEFORE THIS
FEATURE ARRIVES...WILL HAVE ANOTHER MOSTLY RAINFREE DAY AND NIGHT
ACROSS THE LOCAL FCST AREA. VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY
TO PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE ENTIRE FCST AREA TODAY AND THEN MOSTLY
CLEAR TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY INLAND (BUT A FEW MORE CLOUDS CLOSER TO
THE COAST AS MOISTURE/LIFT INCREASE WITH THE WEAK TROF MOVING IN
FROM THE GULF). WILL ONCE AGAIN SEE ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING CLOSE TO THE COAST IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION...AND POSSIBLY EXTENDING A LITTLE
FARTHER INLAND OVER WESTERN THIRD OF THE FCST AREA WHERE THERE IS
SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE. ANY CONVECTION LINGERING INTO THE EVENING
WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT MAYBE REDEVELOP OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT AS THE TROF APPROACHES. HIGH TEMPS TODAY
AGAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...PRIMARILY IN
THE LOW TO MID 90S. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT NEAR OR A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL
OVER INTERIOR EASTERN ZONES...DROPPING TO THE MIDDLE 60S. ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE FCST AREA TONIGHT...MIN TEMPS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S. 12/DS

.LONG TERM...[FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY]...UPPER RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE
DEEP SOUTH MOSTLY EAST OF TEXAS IS STILL PROGGED TO WEAKEN SLOWLY
GENERALLY FROM WEST TO EAST IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING SHORT WAVE
TROF OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. EARLIER MODEL RUNS SHOWED THIS MID
LEVEL IMPULSE DIGGING OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY LATE FRI INTO SAT
SUPPORTING BETTER LIFT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE FRI INTO
SAT BUT CURRENT TRENDS NOW SHOW LESS LIFT TO THE EAST BECAUSE MAIN
UPPER SHORT WAVE TO THE NW NOW LOOKS TO LIFT NE AND DAMPEN MOSTLY
WEST OF THE MS RIVER...OR BASICALLY EARLIER THAN ANTICIPATED. THIS
PATTERN WILL STILL RESULT IN GOOD COVERAGE OVER MUCH OF OUR WESTERN
HALF OF THE CWFA WITH LESS COVERAGE GENERALLY EAST OF THE I-65
CORRIDOR, GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO OCCUR
OVER THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS AFFECTING IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS DUE
TO A PERSISTENT SFC TROF STRETCHING FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF TO
THE TX COAST. WITH THIS HAVE TRIMMED BACK ON POPS FOR FRI INTO SAT
WITH SLIGHTLY LESS COVERAGE TO THE EAST. AS THE BETTER MOISTURE IN
THE LOW LEVELS CONTINUES TO ADVECT NORTH LATE IN THE WEEK AND OVER
THE WEEKEND EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS FRI THROUGH SUN. THE
MAIN CONCERN WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL
BE GUSTY WINDS MOSTLY IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE...FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING AND PERIODS OF VERY HEAVY RAIN. AS FOR TEMPS WILL
LEAN TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE MAV AND ECMWF TWEAKING THESE VALUES DOWN
A FEW DEGREES MOSTLY FOR CONSISTENCY WITH SURROUNDING WFOS. HIGHS
WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 90S OVER THE NORTHERN HALF AND THE UPPER
80S TO NEAR 90 FURTHER SOUTH BOTH FRI AND SAT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
MIDDLE 70S FRI AND SAT NIGHT.

[SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...SFC TO H5 RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REBUILD SLOWLY THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS PATTER WILL CONTINUE TO LEAD
TO A GOOD ONSHORE FLOW AND BETTER MOISTURE ADVECTION THROUGH MIDWEEK
THROUGH WITH LIMITED FORCING IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY SCATTERED THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIODS GENERATED MOSTLY FROM DAYTIME HEATING AND WEAK AFTERNOON
SEABREEZE CIRCULATIONS. AS FOR TEMPS WILL CONTINUE USE A BLEND OF THE
CURRENT MAV AND ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS WILL
CONTINUE TO REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 90S WELL INLAND AND THE UPPER
80S TO NEAR 90 FURTHER SOUTH TO THE COAST. LOWS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S THROUGH THE PD. 32/EE


&&

.AVIATION...(28/12Z ISSUANCE)...MAINLY A VFR FCST THROUGH NEXT 24
HOURS. WILL CARRY VCTS LATE AFTERNOON NEAR THE COASTAL TERMINALS
(MOB...BFM...PNS) BUT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE VERY
ISOLATED. OTHERWISE A PREDOMINANT LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY SFC WIND FLOW
EXPECTED. 12/DS

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE MARINE AREA OVER
THE SOUTHERN STATES WILL WEAKEN THROUGH FRIDAY AS A INVERTED TROF
(EASTERLY WAVE) MOVES NORTH ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE
TROF MOVES INLAND AND DISSIPATES OVER THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE...A
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND THE
EASTERN GULF. WITH THIS A GENERAL LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEAS
INITIALLY UP TO NEAR 4 FEET...BUT DECREASING TO AROUND 2 FEET BY THE
MIDDLE AND END OF THE FCST PERIOD. 12/DS


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      91  73  91  76  88 /  20  05  40  40  60
PENSACOLA   92  74  91  79  88 /  20  05  40  40  60
DESTIN      91  77  90  79  87 /  20  05  50  40  60
EVERGREEN   93  65  94  73  90 /  05  05  20  30  60
WAYNESBORO  93  68  93  74  89 /  10  05  20  30  60
CAMDEN      94  66  95  74  92 /  05  05  20  30  60
CRESTVIEW   94  67  92  73  90 /  05  05  40  30  60

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMOB 281012
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
512 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE
NORTH AND EAST OF THE FCST AREA SHIFTS MORE TO THE EAST THROUGH
TONIGHT. TO THE SOUTH...A WEAK INVERTED TROF (OR EASTERLY WAVE) IS
NOTED ON SFC MAPS AS WELL AS SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER FAR SOUTHEASTERN
GULF MOVING EVER SO SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. THIS FEATURE IS
PROGGED BY MODELS TO CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY UP TOWARD THE GULF
COAST REGION BY LATE TONIGHT (AND CONTINUE INTO AND OVER THE REGION
INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE MID/LONG TERM FCST PERIOD). BEFORE THIS
FEATURE ARRIVES...WILL HAVE ANOTHER MOSTLY RAINFREE DAY AND NIGHT
ACROSS THE LOCAL FCST AREA. VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY
TO PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE ENTIRE FCST AREA TODAY AND THEN MOSTLY
CLEAR TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY INLAND (BUT A FEW MORE CLOUDS CLOSER TO
THE COAST AS MOISTURE/LIFT INCREASE WITH THE WEAK TROF MOVING IN
FROM THE GULF). WILL ONCE AGAIN SEE ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING CLOSE TO THE COAST IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION...AND POSSIBLY EXTENDING A LITTLE
FARTHER INLAND OVER WESTERN THIRD OF THE FCST AREA WHERE THERE IS
SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE. ANY CONVECTION LINGERING INTO THE EVENING
WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT MAYBE REDEVELOP OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT AS THE TROF APPROACHES. HIGH TEMPS TODAY
AGAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...PRIMARILY IN
THE LOW TO MID 90S. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT NEAR OR A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL
OVER INTERIOR EASTERN ZONES...DROPPING TO THE MIDDLE 60S. ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE FCST AREA TONIGHT...MIN TEMPS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S. 12/DS

.LONG TERM...[FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY]...UPPER RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE
DEEP SOUTH MOSTLY EAST OF TEXAS IS STILL PROGGED TO WEAKEN SLOWLY
GENERALLY FROM WEST TO EAST IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING SHORT WAVE
TROF OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. EARLIER MODEL RUNS SHOWED THIS MID
LEVEL IMPULSE DIGGING OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY LATE FRI INTO SAT
SUPPORTING BETTER LIFT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE FRI INTO
SAT BUT CURRENT TRENDS NOW SHOW LESS LIFT TO THE EAST BECAUSE MAIN
UPPER SHORT WAVE TO THE NW NOW LOOKS TO LIFT NE AND DAMPEN MOSTLY
WEST OF THE MS RIVER...OR BASICALLY EARLIER THAN ANTICIPATED. THIS
PATTERN WILL STILL RESULT IN GOOD COVERAGE OVER MUCH OF OUR WESTERN
HALF OF THE CWFA WITH LESS COVERAGE GENERALLY EAST OF THE I-65
CORRIDOR, GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO OCCUR
OVER THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS AFFECTING IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS DUE
TO A PERSISTENT SFC TROF STRETCHING FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF TO
THE TX COAST. WITH THIS HAVE TRIMMED BACK ON POPS FOR FRI INTO SAT
WITH SLIGHTLY LESS COVERAGE TO THE EAST. AS THE BETTER MOISTURE IN
THE LOW LEVELS CONTINUES TO ADVECT NORTH LATE IN THE WEEK AND OVER
THE WEEKEND EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS FRI THROUGH SUN. THE
MAIN CONCERN WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL
BE GUSTY WINDS MOSTLY IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE...FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING AND PERIODS OF VERY HEAVY RAIN. AS FOR TEMPS WILL
LEAN TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE MAV AND ECMWF TWEAKING THESE VALUES DOWN
A FEW DEGREES MOSTLY FOR CONSISTENCY WITH SURROUNDING WFOS. HIGHS
WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 90S OVER THE NORTHERN HALF AND THE UPPER
80S TO NEAR 90 FURTHER SOUTH BOTH FRI AND SAT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
MIDDLE 70S FRI AND SAT NIGHT.

[SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...SFC TO H5 RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REBUILD SLOWLY THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS PATTER WILL CONTINUE TO LEAD
TO A GOOD ONSHORE FLOW AND BETTER MOISTURE ADVECTION THROUGH MIDWEEK
THROUGH WITH LIMITED FORCING IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY SCATTERED THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIODS GENERATED MOSTLY FROM DAYTIME HEATING AND WEAK AFTERNOON
SEABREEZE CIRCULATIONS. AS FOR TEMPS WILL CONTINUE USE A BLEND OF THE
CURRENT MAV AND ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS WILL
CONTINUE TO REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 90S WELL INLAND AND THE UPPER
80S TO NEAR 90 FURTHER SOUTH TO THE COAST. LOWS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S THROUGH THE PD. 32/EE


&&

.AVIATION...(28/12Z ISSUANCE)...MAINLY A VFR FCST THROUGH NEXT 24
HOURS. WILL CARRY VCTS LATE AFTERNOON NEAR THE COASTAL TERMINALS
(MOB...BFM...PNS) BUT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE VERY
ISOLATED. OTHERWISE A PREDOMINANT LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY SFC WIND FLOW
EXPECTED. 12/DS

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE MARINE AREA OVER
THE SOUTHERN STATES WILL WEAKEN THROUGH FRIDAY AS A INVERTED TROF
(EASTERLY WAVE) MOVES NORTH ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE
TROF MOVES INLAND AND DISSIPATES OVER THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE...A
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND THE
EASTERN GULF. WITH THIS A GENERAL LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEAS
INITIALLY UP TO NEAR 4 FEET...BUT DECREASING TO AROUND 2 FEET BY THE
MIDDLE AND END OF THE FCST PERIOD. 12/DS


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      91  73  91  76  88 /  20  05  40  40  60
PENSACOLA   92  74  91  79  88 /  20  05  40  40  60
DESTIN      91  77  90  79  87 /  20  05  50  40  60
EVERGREEN   93  65  94  73  90 /  05  05  20  30  60
WAYNESBORO  93  68  93  74  89 /  10  05  20  30  60
CAMDEN      94  66  95  74  92 /  05  05  20  30  60
CRESTVIEW   94  67  92  73  90 /  05  05  40  30  60

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KMOB 280434 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1130 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.AVIATION [28.06Z TAF ISSUANCE]...VFR SKY AND VSBY CATEGORIES
FORECAST OVERNIGHT. LIGHT/VARIABLE TO CALM OVERNIGHT WIND. /10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      69  93  73  91  75 /  05  20  05  40  40
PENSACOLA   73  92  76  89  78 /  05  20  05  40  40
DESTIN      77  90  76  90  78 /  05  20  05  40  40
EVERGREEN   64  95  66  94  72 /  05  05  05  20  20
WAYNESBORO  64  94  68  93  73 /  05  10  05  20  40
CAMDEN      64  96  67  94  72 /  05  05  05  20  30
CRESTVIEW   65  94  66  92  72 /  05  10  05  40  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$












000
FXUS64 KMOB 280434 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1130 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.AVIATION [28.06Z TAF ISSUANCE]...VFR SKY AND VSBY CATEGORIES
FORECAST OVERNIGHT. LIGHT/VARIABLE TO CALM OVERNIGHT WIND. /10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      69  93  73  91  75 /  05  20  05  40  40
PENSACOLA   73  92  76  89  78 /  05  20  05  40  40
DESTIN      77  90  76  90  78 /  05  20  05  40  40
EVERGREEN   64  95  66  94  72 /  05  05  05  20  20
WAYNESBORO  64  94  68  93  73 /  05  10  05  20  40
CAMDEN      64  96  67  94  72 /  05  05  05  20  30
CRESTVIEW   65  94  66  92  72 /  05  10  05  40  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$













000
FXUS64 KMOB 272102
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
400 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON]...THE SURFACE
PICTURE INDICATES A HIGH TO OUR NORTH THAT WILL WEAKEN MODERATELY
OVERNIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS OUR
AREA THROUGH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITABLE WATER
DECREASES SHARPLY FROM 2 INCHES OVER SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI TO LESS
THAN AN INCH EAST OF MOBILE BAY...AND LI INCREASES FROM NEAR ZERO
DEGREES TO 4 DEGREES ABOVE ZERO AND ALSO QUITE SHARPLY...EAST OF
MOBILE BAY. CAPES AROUND 600 OR LESS. WE MODIFIED THE POP TO REFLECT
A SEABREEZE PROGRESSION WITH MORE COVERAGE TO THE WEST. KEPT CLOSE
TO MAV GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURE AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS. NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY HEAT INDEX ISSUES...NOTHING ABOVE MID 90S TOMORROW
BECAUSE OF DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.  77/BD

[THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT]...THE REGION WILL BE SITUATED
BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE AREA CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST
FLORIDA...THE GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA COAST AND ADJACENT WESTERN
ATLANTIC WATERS...AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THAT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES
AREAS. THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL MAINTAIN A SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL CLIMB BACK ABOVE
2 INCHES THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES
MOVE OVERHEAD. ALTHOUGH MAINLY EXPECTING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
COVERAGE ON FRIDAY...POPS MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED TO LIKELY ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 65 TO 72 DEGREES...EXCEPT FOR THE MID 70S
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM 90 TO
95 DEGREES. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 72 TO 76
DEGREES INLAND AREAS...AND FROM 76 TO 80 DEGREES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST. /22

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS CONTINUES TO MOVE FURTHER TO THE EAST REACHING THE
MID MS RIVER VALLEY BY MIDDAY SAT RESULTING IN A DEEPER ONSHORE FLOW
AND BETTER MOISTURE RETURN IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER SAT THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. BETTER LEFT WILL ALSO BE LIKELY ON SAT RESULTING IN GOOD
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE DAY ON
SAT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM NEAR THE COAST AND OFFSHORE
EARLY SAT THEN SHIFT INLAND BY AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER
IN NOT EXPECTED WITH THE BETTER COVERAGE ON SAT THOUGH A FEW STORMS
COULD BE STRONG ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS. THE MAIN UPPER SHORT WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK DAMPENING OUT SUN THROUGH TUE AS IT TRACKS
EASTWARD OVER WESTERN NC AND NORTHERN GA. WITH DEEP MOIST STILL IN
PLACE COMBINED WITH LESS FORCING IN THE MID LEVELS SUN THROUGH TUE
LESS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED LATER IN
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TO BE NEAR THE COAST EARLY IN THE DAY SHIFTING WELL
INLAND BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. AS FOR TEMPS WILL LEAN
TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE EXTENDED MAV/MET AND ECWMF FOR TEMPS IN THE
EXTENDED PDS. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S FOR
MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S CLOSER TO THE COAST.
32/EE


&&

.AVIATION [27.18Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF ISSUANCE]...WE ARE
CONTINUING CONFIDENT IN A VFR FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS 11 TO 13 KNOTS ALONG THE COAST...AND LIGHT
MOSTLY EAST WINDS 5 TO 7 KNOTS ELSEWHERE THIS AFTERNOON. WIND
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AROUND SUNSET OR A LITTLE AFTER. WILL
CONTINUE VCTS LATE AFTERNOON NEAR THE COASTAL TERMINALS
(MOB...BFM...PNS) BUT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
ISOLATED. WE ANTICIPATE THIS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
PATCHY GROUND FOG POSSIBLE IN MARSHY AREAS AROUND RIVERS AND
DEPRESSIONS. 77/BD

&&

.MARINE...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE MARINE AREA WILL
BRING INCREASED WINDS TO 15 KNOTS FROM EAST TO SOUTHEAST OFFSHORE.
WAVE HEIGHTS AROUND 5 FEET ARE CONSISTENT WITH BRETSCHNEIDER
METHODOLOGY. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH BUOY OBS WHICH ARE PUSHING 15
KNOTS WITH SEAS 5 FEET WELL OFFSHORE. WE WILL ADJUST THE FIRST 24
HOURS USING THE SWAN DATA WE HAVE FOR TAU 24 HOURS AND LATER...AND
START A NEW SWAN RUN USING THE HIGHER WIND ADJUSTMENT. A STRONGER
HIGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN EAST OF FLORIDA AND PUSH
INTO THE EASTERN GULF OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
WILL BRING A LIGHT SOUTHEAST WIND THROUGH LATE THURSDAY...BECOMING
MORE SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEAS GENERALLY
DECREASING TO AROUND 2 FEET BY LATE THURSDAY FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST. ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE MARINE AREA TODAY AND
THURSDAY...BECOMING A LITTLE MORE NUMEROUS FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. 77/BD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      69  93  73  91  75 /  05  20  05  40  40
PENSACOLA   73  92  76  89  78 /  05  20  05  40  40
DESTIN      77  90  76  90  78 /  05  20  05  40  40
EVERGREEN   64  95  66  94  72 /  05  05  05  20  20
WAYNESBORO  64  94  68  93  73 /  05  10  05  20  40
CAMDEN      64  96  67  94  72 /  05  05  05  20  30
CRESTVIEW   65  94  66  92  72 /  05  10  05  40  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMOB 272102
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
400 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON]...THE SURFACE
PICTURE INDICATES A HIGH TO OUR NORTH THAT WILL WEAKEN MODERATELY
OVERNIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS OUR
AREA THROUGH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITABLE WATER
DECREASES SHARPLY FROM 2 INCHES OVER SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI TO LESS
THAN AN INCH EAST OF MOBILE BAY...AND LI INCREASES FROM NEAR ZERO
DEGREES TO 4 DEGREES ABOVE ZERO AND ALSO QUITE SHARPLY...EAST OF
MOBILE BAY. CAPES AROUND 600 OR LESS. WE MODIFIED THE POP TO REFLECT
A SEABREEZE PROGRESSION WITH MORE COVERAGE TO THE WEST. KEPT CLOSE
TO MAV GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURE AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS. NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY HEAT INDEX ISSUES...NOTHING ABOVE MID 90S TOMORROW
BECAUSE OF DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.  77/BD

[THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT]...THE REGION WILL BE SITUATED
BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE AREA CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST
FLORIDA...THE GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA COAST AND ADJACENT WESTERN
ATLANTIC WATERS...AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THAT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES
AREAS. THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL MAINTAIN A SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL CLIMB BACK ABOVE
2 INCHES THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES
MOVE OVERHEAD. ALTHOUGH MAINLY EXPECTING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
COVERAGE ON FRIDAY...POPS MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED TO LIKELY ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 65 TO 72 DEGREES...EXCEPT FOR THE MID 70S
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM 90 TO
95 DEGREES. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 72 TO 76
DEGREES INLAND AREAS...AND FROM 76 TO 80 DEGREES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST. /22

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS CONTINUES TO MOVE FURTHER TO THE EAST REACHING THE
MID MS RIVER VALLEY BY MIDDAY SAT RESULTING IN A DEEPER ONSHORE FLOW
AND BETTER MOISTURE RETURN IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER SAT THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. BETTER LEFT WILL ALSO BE LIKELY ON SAT RESULTING IN GOOD
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE DAY ON
SAT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM NEAR THE COAST AND OFFSHORE
EARLY SAT THEN SHIFT INLAND BY AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER
IN NOT EXPECTED WITH THE BETTER COVERAGE ON SAT THOUGH A FEW STORMS
COULD BE STRONG ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS. THE MAIN UPPER SHORT WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK DAMPENING OUT SUN THROUGH TUE AS IT TRACKS
EASTWARD OVER WESTERN NC AND NORTHERN GA. WITH DEEP MOIST STILL IN
PLACE COMBINED WITH LESS FORCING IN THE MID LEVELS SUN THROUGH TUE
LESS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED LATER IN
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TO BE NEAR THE COAST EARLY IN THE DAY SHIFTING WELL
INLAND BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. AS FOR TEMPS WILL LEAN
TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE EXTENDED MAV/MET AND ECWMF FOR TEMPS IN THE
EXTENDED PDS. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S FOR
MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S CLOSER TO THE COAST.
32/EE


&&

.AVIATION [27.18Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF ISSUANCE]...WE ARE
CONTINUING CONFIDENT IN A VFR FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS 11 TO 13 KNOTS ALONG THE COAST...AND LIGHT
MOSTLY EAST WINDS 5 TO 7 KNOTS ELSEWHERE THIS AFTERNOON. WIND
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AROUND SUNSET OR A LITTLE AFTER. WILL
CONTINUE VCTS LATE AFTERNOON NEAR THE COASTAL TERMINALS
(MOB...BFM...PNS) BUT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
ISOLATED. WE ANTICIPATE THIS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
PATCHY GROUND FOG POSSIBLE IN MARSHY AREAS AROUND RIVERS AND
DEPRESSIONS. 77/BD

&&

.MARINE...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE MARINE AREA WILL
BRING INCREASED WINDS TO 15 KNOTS FROM EAST TO SOUTHEAST OFFSHORE.
WAVE HEIGHTS AROUND 5 FEET ARE CONSISTENT WITH BRETSCHNEIDER
METHODOLOGY. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH BUOY OBS WHICH ARE PUSHING 15
KNOTS WITH SEAS 5 FEET WELL OFFSHORE. WE WILL ADJUST THE FIRST 24
HOURS USING THE SWAN DATA WE HAVE FOR TAU 24 HOURS AND LATER...AND
START A NEW SWAN RUN USING THE HIGHER WIND ADJUSTMENT. A STRONGER
HIGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN EAST OF FLORIDA AND PUSH
INTO THE EASTERN GULF OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
WILL BRING A LIGHT SOUTHEAST WIND THROUGH LATE THURSDAY...BECOMING
MORE SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEAS GENERALLY
DECREASING TO AROUND 2 FEET BY LATE THURSDAY FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST. ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE MARINE AREA TODAY AND
THURSDAY...BECOMING A LITTLE MORE NUMEROUS FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. 77/BD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      69  93  73  91  75 /  05  20  05  40  40
PENSACOLA   73  92  76  89  78 /  05  20  05  40  40
DESTIN      77  90  76  90  78 /  05  20  05  40  40
EVERGREEN   64  95  66  94  72 /  05  05  05  20  20
WAYNESBORO  64  94  68  93  73 /  05  10  05  20  40
CAMDEN      64  96  67  94  72 /  05  05  05  20  30
CRESTVIEW   65  94  66  92  72 /  05  10  05  40  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMOB 271752
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1252 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.AVIATION UPDATE FOR 27/1800Z...VFR THROUGH PERIOD WITH MODERATE
NORTHEAST WINDS 11 TO 13 KNOTS EAST OF MOBILE BAY ALONG THE COAST...AND
LIGHT MOSTLY EAST WINDS 5 TO 7 KNOTS ELSEWHERE THIS AFTERNOON. WIND
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER SUNSET. PATCHY GROUND FOG POSSIBLE
IN MARSHY AREAS AROUND RIVERS AND DEPRESSIONS.

77/BD


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1109 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/

MARINE UPDATE...INCREASED THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SLIGHTLY IN LIGHT
OF RADAR RETURNS HAVING INCREASED SHARPLY IN THE LAST SEVERAL VOLUME
SCANS. HEADLINING SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THIS AFTERNOON.

77/BD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      92  72  93  73  91 /  20  05  10  05  40
PENSACOLA   92  73  92  76  89 /  20  05  05  05  40
DESTIN      92  75  90  76  90 /  10  05  05  05  40
EVERGREEN   93  64  95  66  94 /  10  05  05  05  20
WAYNESBORO  94  66  95  68  93 /  10  05  10  05  20
CAMDEN      93  64  95  67  94 /  05  05  05  05  20
CRESTVIEW   94  64  94  66  92 /  10  05  05  05  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KMOB 271752
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1252 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.AVIATION UPDATE FOR 27/1800Z...VFR THROUGH PERIOD WITH MODERATE
NORTHEAST WINDS 11 TO 13 KNOTS EAST OF MOBILE BAY ALONG THE COAST...AND
LIGHT MOSTLY EAST WINDS 5 TO 7 KNOTS ELSEWHERE THIS AFTERNOON. WIND
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER SUNSET. PATCHY GROUND FOG POSSIBLE
IN MARSHY AREAS AROUND RIVERS AND DEPRESSIONS.

77/BD


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1109 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/

MARINE UPDATE...INCREASED THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SLIGHTLY IN LIGHT
OF RADAR RETURNS HAVING INCREASED SHARPLY IN THE LAST SEVERAL VOLUME
SCANS. HEADLINING SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THIS AFTERNOON.

77/BD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      92  72  93  73  91 /  20  05  10  05  40
PENSACOLA   92  73  92  76  89 /  20  05  05  05  40
DESTIN      92  75  90  76  90 /  10  05  05  05  40
EVERGREEN   93  64  95  66  94 /  10  05  05  05  20
WAYNESBORO  94  66  95  68  93 /  10  05  10  05  20
CAMDEN      93  64  95  67  94 /  05  05  05  05  20
CRESTVIEW   94  64  94  66  92 /  10  05  05  05  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMOB 271609
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1109 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.MARINE UPDATE...INCREASED THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SLIGHTLY IN LIGHT
OF RADAR RETURNS HAVING INCREASED SHARPLY IN THE LAST SEVERAL VOLUME
SCANS. HEADLINING SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THIS AFTERNOON.

77/BD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      92  72  93  72  92 /  20  10  20  10  50
PENSACOLA   92  73  92  75  92 /  20  10  10  10  40
DESTIN      92  75  90  75  90 /  10  05  10  10  40
EVERGREEN   93  64  95  66  93 /  10  05  05  05  30
WAYNESBORO  94  66  95  70  94 /  10  10  10  05  30
CAMDEN      93  64  95  66  94 /  05  05  05  05  20
CRESTVIEW   94  64  94  65  93 /  10  05  10  05  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KMOB 271609
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1109 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.MARINE UPDATE...INCREASED THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SLIGHTLY IN LIGHT
OF RADAR RETURNS HAVING INCREASED SHARPLY IN THE LAST SEVERAL VOLUME
SCANS. HEADLINING SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THIS AFTERNOON.

77/BD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      92  72  93  72  92 /  20  10  20  10  50
PENSACOLA   92  73  92  75  92 /  20  10  10  10  40
DESTIN      92  75  90  75  90 /  10  05  10  10  40
EVERGREEN   93  64  95  66  93 /  10  05  05  05  30
WAYNESBORO  94  66  95  70  94 /  10  10  10  05  30
CAMDEN      93  64  95  66  94 /  05  05  05  05  20
CRESTVIEW   94  64  94  65  93 /  10  05  10  05  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMOB 271549
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1049 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.MARINE UPDATE...INCREASED WINDS OFFSHORE A BIT FOR CONSISTENCY WITH
BUOY OBS WHICH ARE PUSHING INTO THE LOWER CRITERIA OF EXERCISE
CAUTION. NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED.

77/BD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 942 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/

UPDATE...MADE A MODEST UPTICK FOR POPS ON SATURDAY 12Z THROUGH SUNDAY
12Z AFTER REVIEWING MODEL OUTPUTS FOR HUMIDITY AND INSTABILITY.

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS UNLIKELY.

77/BD

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 504 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE
NORTH OF THE FCST AREA WEAKENS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A CONTINUED PREDOMINATELY EASTERLY SYNOPTIC SCALE WIND FLOW
ACROSS THE FCST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH A SLIGHT NORTHEASTERLY
COMPONENT EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AND A SLIGHT
SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT (ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST) THIS AFTERNOON.
SFC DEWPOINTS HAVE MODERATED JUST SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS...AND WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S INTERIOR AND LOWER 70S
COASTAL THROUGH TONIGHT. SLIGHTLY GREATER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE OVER
THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE FCST AREA...COUPLED WITH A WEAKNESS ALOFT
JUST TO THE WEST OF THE FCST AREA WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING OVER THE WESTERN THIRD
OF THE FCST AREA. ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
OVER COASTAL ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE THIS
AFTERNOON AS WELL IN ASSOCIATION WITH WEAK SEA BREEZE INTERACTIONS.
ANY CONVECTION LINGERING INTO THE EVENING WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE.
HIGH TEMPS TODAY SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR...IN THE LOW TO MID 90S...BUT STILL SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
EARLIER THIS WEEK. WITH THE LOWER THAN NORMAL DEWPOINTS STILL OVER
THE REGION...LOW TEMPS TONIGHT NEAR OR A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...
RANGING FROM THE MID 60S INTERIOR COUNTIES TO LOWER 70S ALONG
IMMEDIATE COAST. 12/DS

(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...SFC TO H5 RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST CONUS...MS RIVER VALLEY AND NORTHERN GULF
OF MEXICO WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN SLOWLY ON THU GENERALLY FROM WEST TO
EAST IN RESPONSE TO NEXT MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TRACKING EASTWARD FROM
THE CENTRAL CONUS TO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY. WITH THIS PATTERN A
BETTER ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS LATER IN THE DAY ON THU CONTINUING
THROUGH FRI ALLOWING BETTER LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO BEGIN
ADVECTING NORTHWARD OVER THE FORECAST AREA RESULTING IN INCREASING
CLOUDS LATE THU AND THU NIGHT FOLLOWED BY MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FRI
WITH SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER INLAND AREAS
MOSTLY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON FRI. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
MEASURABLE RAIN WILL BEGIN NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND OFFSHORE
EARLY FRI MORNING THEN SPREAD INLAND OVER MUCH OF THE LOWER HALF OF
THE CWFA LATE FRI MORNING AND FRI AFTERNOON. THE BEST LIFT LOOKS TO
BE TO THE WEST AND OFFSHORE EARLY FRI GRADUALLY EAST AND NORTH
THROUGH FRI NIGHT. WITH MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED
ON THU AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE WARM SIDE WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS CLIMBING TO THE MID 90S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S CLOSER TO THE COAST. LOWS THU NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRI WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THEN PREVIOUS NIGHTS RANGING FROM
THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR INLAND AREAS IN AL AND NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE AND THE LOWER 70S OVER SOUTHEAST MS. WILL
USE AND BLEND OF THE MAV AND ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS THU
THROUGH FRI NIGHT.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE OVER
THE CENRAL CONUS CONTINUES TO MOVE FURTHER TO THE EAST REACHING THE
MID MS RIVER VALLEY BY MIDDAY SAT RESULTING IN A DEEPER ONSHORE FLOW
AND BETTER MOISTURE RETURN IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER SAT THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. BETTER LEFT WILL ALSO BER LIKLEY ON SAT RESULTING IN GOOD
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THOUGHOUT MOST OF THE DAY ON
SAT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM NEAR THE COAST AND OFFSHORE
EARLY SAT THEN SHIFT INLAND BY AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER
IN NOT EXPECTED WITH THE BETTER COVERAGE ON SAT THOUGH A FEW STORMS
COULD BE STRONG ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS. THE MAIN UPPER SHORT WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK DAMPENING OUT SUN THROUGH TUE AS IT TRACKS
EASTWARD OVER WESTERN NC AND NORTHERN GA. WITH DEEP MOIST STILL IN
PLACE COMBINED WITH LESS FORCING IN THE MID LEVELS SUN THROUGH TUE
LESS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED LATER IN
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE FOR MEASUARBLE RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TO BE NEAR THE COAST EARLY IN THE DAY SHIFTING WELL
INLAND BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. AS FOR TEMPS WILL LEAN
TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE EXTENDED MAV/MET AND ECWMF FOR TEMPS IN THE
EXTEDED PDS. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S FOR
MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S CLOSER TO THE COAST.
32/EE

AVIATION (27/12Z ISSUANCE)...MAINLY A VFR FCST THROUGH NEXT 24
HOURS. WILL CARRY VCTS LATE AFTERNOON NEAR THE COASTAL TERMINALS
(MOB...BFM...PNS) BUT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE VERY
ISOLATED. OTHERWISE A PREDOMINANT LIGHT EASTERLY SFC WIND FLOW
EXPECTED...EXCEPT SLIGHT NORTHEASTERLY COMPONENT EARLY THIS MORNING
AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AND SLIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY NEAR THE COAST LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. 12/DS

MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE MARINE AREA OVER
THE SOUTHERN STATES WILL WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS STRONGER
HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN EAST OF FLORIDA AND
BEGINS TO RIDGE INTO THE EASTERN GULF OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. A LIGHT MAINLY EASTERLY WIND FLOW IS
EXPECTED THROUGH LATE THURSDAY...BECOMING MORE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE GULF RIDGE BUILDS.
SEAS INITIALLY IN THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE TODAY...GENERALLY DECREASING
TO AROUND 2 FEET FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST PERIOD. ISOLATED
CONVECTION OVER THE MARINE AREA TODAY AND THURSDAY...BECOMING A
LITTLE MORE NUMEROUS FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      92  72  93  72  92 /  20  10  20  10  50
PENSACOLA   92  73  92  75  92 /  20  10  10  10  40
DESTIN      92  75  90  75  90 /  10  05  10  10  40
EVERGREEN   93  64  95  66  93 /  10  05  05  05  30
WAYNESBORO  94  66  95  70  94 /  10  10  10  05  30
CAMDEN      93  64  95  66  94 /  05  05  05  05  20
CRESTVIEW   94  64  94  65  93 /  10  05  10  05  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$











000
FXUS64 KMOB 271549
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1049 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.MARINE UPDATE...INCREASED WINDS OFFSHORE A BIT FOR CONSISTENCY WITH
BUOY OBS WHICH ARE PUSHING INTO THE LOWER CRITERIA OF EXERCISE
CAUTION. NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED.

77/BD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 942 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/

UPDATE...MADE A MODEST UPTICK FOR POPS ON SATURDAY 12Z THROUGH SUNDAY
12Z AFTER REVIEWING MODEL OUTPUTS FOR HUMIDITY AND INSTABILITY.

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS UNLIKELY.

77/BD

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 504 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE
NORTH OF THE FCST AREA WEAKENS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A CONTINUED PREDOMINATELY EASTERLY SYNOPTIC SCALE WIND FLOW
ACROSS THE FCST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH A SLIGHT NORTHEASTERLY
COMPONENT EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AND A SLIGHT
SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT (ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST) THIS AFTERNOON.
SFC DEWPOINTS HAVE MODERATED JUST SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS...AND WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S INTERIOR AND LOWER 70S
COASTAL THROUGH TONIGHT. SLIGHTLY GREATER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE OVER
THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE FCST AREA...COUPLED WITH A WEAKNESS ALOFT
JUST TO THE WEST OF THE FCST AREA WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING OVER THE WESTERN THIRD
OF THE FCST AREA. ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
OVER COASTAL ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE THIS
AFTERNOON AS WELL IN ASSOCIATION WITH WEAK SEA BREEZE INTERACTIONS.
ANY CONVECTION LINGERING INTO THE EVENING WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE.
HIGH TEMPS TODAY SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR...IN THE LOW TO MID 90S...BUT STILL SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
EARLIER THIS WEEK. WITH THE LOWER THAN NORMAL DEWPOINTS STILL OVER
THE REGION...LOW TEMPS TONIGHT NEAR OR A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...
RANGING FROM THE MID 60S INTERIOR COUNTIES TO LOWER 70S ALONG
IMMEDIATE COAST. 12/DS

(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...SFC TO H5 RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST CONUS...MS RIVER VALLEY AND NORTHERN GULF
OF MEXICO WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN SLOWLY ON THU GENERALLY FROM WEST TO
EAST IN RESPONSE TO NEXT MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TRACKING EASTWARD FROM
THE CENTRAL CONUS TO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY. WITH THIS PATTERN A
BETTER ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS LATER IN THE DAY ON THU CONTINUING
THROUGH FRI ALLOWING BETTER LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO BEGIN
ADVECTING NORTHWARD OVER THE FORECAST AREA RESULTING IN INCREASING
CLOUDS LATE THU AND THU NIGHT FOLLOWED BY MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FRI
WITH SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER INLAND AREAS
MOSTLY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON FRI. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
MEASURABLE RAIN WILL BEGIN NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND OFFSHORE
EARLY FRI MORNING THEN SPREAD INLAND OVER MUCH OF THE LOWER HALF OF
THE CWFA LATE FRI MORNING AND FRI AFTERNOON. THE BEST LIFT LOOKS TO
BE TO THE WEST AND OFFSHORE EARLY FRI GRADUALLY EAST AND NORTH
THROUGH FRI NIGHT. WITH MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED
ON THU AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE WARM SIDE WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS CLIMBING TO THE MID 90S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S CLOSER TO THE COAST. LOWS THU NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRI WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THEN PREVIOUS NIGHTS RANGING FROM
THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR INLAND AREAS IN AL AND NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE AND THE LOWER 70S OVER SOUTHEAST MS. WILL
USE AND BLEND OF THE MAV AND ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS THU
THROUGH FRI NIGHT.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE OVER
THE CENRAL CONUS CONTINUES TO MOVE FURTHER TO THE EAST REACHING THE
MID MS RIVER VALLEY BY MIDDAY SAT RESULTING IN A DEEPER ONSHORE FLOW
AND BETTER MOISTURE RETURN IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER SAT THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. BETTER LEFT WILL ALSO BER LIKLEY ON SAT RESULTING IN GOOD
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THOUGHOUT MOST OF THE DAY ON
SAT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM NEAR THE COAST AND OFFSHORE
EARLY SAT THEN SHIFT INLAND BY AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER
IN NOT EXPECTED WITH THE BETTER COVERAGE ON SAT THOUGH A FEW STORMS
COULD BE STRONG ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS. THE MAIN UPPER SHORT WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK DAMPENING OUT SUN THROUGH TUE AS IT TRACKS
EASTWARD OVER WESTERN NC AND NORTHERN GA. WITH DEEP MOIST STILL IN
PLACE COMBINED WITH LESS FORCING IN THE MID LEVELS SUN THROUGH TUE
LESS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED LATER IN
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE FOR MEASUARBLE RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TO BE NEAR THE COAST EARLY IN THE DAY SHIFTING WELL
INLAND BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. AS FOR TEMPS WILL LEAN
TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE EXTENDED MAV/MET AND ECWMF FOR TEMPS IN THE
EXTEDED PDS. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S FOR
MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S CLOSER TO THE COAST.
32/EE

AVIATION (27/12Z ISSUANCE)...MAINLY A VFR FCST THROUGH NEXT 24
HOURS. WILL CARRY VCTS LATE AFTERNOON NEAR THE COASTAL TERMINALS
(MOB...BFM...PNS) BUT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE VERY
ISOLATED. OTHERWISE A PREDOMINANT LIGHT EASTERLY SFC WIND FLOW
EXPECTED...EXCEPT SLIGHT NORTHEASTERLY COMPONENT EARLY THIS MORNING
AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AND SLIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY NEAR THE COAST LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. 12/DS

MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE MARINE AREA OVER
THE SOUTHERN STATES WILL WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS STRONGER
HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN EAST OF FLORIDA AND
BEGINS TO RIDGE INTO THE EASTERN GULF OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. A LIGHT MAINLY EASTERLY WIND FLOW IS
EXPECTED THROUGH LATE THURSDAY...BECOMING MORE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE GULF RIDGE BUILDS.
SEAS INITIALLY IN THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE TODAY...GENERALLY DECREASING
TO AROUND 2 FEET FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST PERIOD. ISOLATED
CONVECTION OVER THE MARINE AREA TODAY AND THURSDAY...BECOMING A
LITTLE MORE NUMEROUS FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      92  72  93  72  92 /  20  10  20  10  50
PENSACOLA   92  73  92  75  92 /  20  10  10  10  40
DESTIN      92  75  90  75  90 /  10  05  10  10  40
EVERGREEN   93  64  95  66  93 /  10  05  05  05  30
WAYNESBORO  94  66  95  70  94 /  10  10  10  05  30
CAMDEN      93  64  95  66  94 /  05  05  05  05  20
CRESTVIEW   94  64  94  65  93 /  10  05  10  05  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KMOB 271442 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
942 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.UPDATE...MADE A MODEST UPTICK FOR POPS ON SATURDAY 12Z THROUGH SUNDAY
12Z AFTER REVIEWING MODEL OUTPUTS FOR HUMIDITY AND INSTABILITY.

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS UNLIKELY.

77/BD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 504 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE
NORTH OF THE FCST AREA WEAKENS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A CONTINUED PREDOMINATELY EASTERLY SYNOPTIC SCALE WIND FLOW
ACROSS THE FCST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH A SLIGHT NORTHEASTERLY
COMPONENT EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AND A SLIGHT
SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT (ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST) THIS AFTERNOON.
SFC DEWPOINTS HAVE MODERATED JUST SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS...AND WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S INTERIOR AND LOWER 70S
COASTAL THROUGH TONIGHT. SLIGHTLY GREATER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE OVER
THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE FCST AREA...COUPLED WITH A WEAKNESS ALOFT
JUST TO THE WEST OF THE FCST AREA WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING OVER THE WESTERN THIRD
OF THE FCST AREA. ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
OVER COASTAL ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE THIS
AFTERNOON AS WELL IN ASSOCIATION WITH WEAK SEA BREEZE INTERACTIONS.
ANY CONVECTION LINGERING INTO THE EVENING WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE.
HIGH TEMPS TODAY SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR...IN THE LOW TO MID 90S...BUT STILL SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
EARLIER THIS WEEK. WITH THE LOWER THAN NORMAL DEWPOINTS STILL OVER
THE REGION...LOW TEMPS TONIGHT NEAR OR A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...
RANGING FROM THE MID 60S INTERIOR COUNTIES TO LOWER 70S ALONG
IMMEDIATE COAST. 12/DS

(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...SFC TO H5 RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST CONUS...MS RIVER VALLEY AND NORTHERN GULF
OF MEXICO WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN SLOWLY ON THU GENERALLY FROM WEST TO
EAST IN RESPONSE TO NEXT MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TRACKING EASTWARD FROM
THE CENTRAL CONUS TO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY. WITH THIS PATTERN A
BETTER ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS LATER IN THE DAY ON THU CONTINUING
THROUGH FRI ALLOWING BETTER LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO BEGIN
ADVECTING NORTHWARD OVER THE FORECAST AREA RESULTING IN INCREASING
CLOUDS LATE THU AND THU NIGHT FOLLOWED BY MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FRI
WITH SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER INLAND AREAS
MOSTLY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON FRI. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
MEASURABLE RAIN WILL BEGIN NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND OFFSHORE
EARLY FRI MORNING THEN SPREAD INLAND OVER MUCH OF THE LOWER HALF OF
THE CWFA LATE FRI MORNING AND FRI AFTERNOON. THE BEST LIFT LOOKS TO
BE TO THE WEST AND OFFSHORE EARLY FRI GRADUALLY EAST AND NORTH
THROUGH FRI NIGHT. WITH MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED
ON THU AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE WARM SIDE WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS CLIMBING TO THE MID 90S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S CLOSER TO THE COAST. LOWS THU NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRI WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THEN PREVIOUS NIGHTS RANGING FROM
THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR INLAND AREAS IN AL AND NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE AND THE LOWER 70S OVER SOUTHEAST MS. WILL
USE AND BLEND OF THE MAV AND ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS THU
THROUGH FRI NIGHT.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE OVER
THE CENRAL CONUS CONTINUES TO MOVE FURTHER TO THE EAST REACHING THE
MID MS RIVER VALLEY BY MIDDAY SAT RESULTING IN A DEEPER ONSHORE FLOW
AND BETTER MOISTURE RETURN IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER SAT THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. BETTER LEFT WILL ALSO BER LIKLEY ON SAT RESULTING IN GOOD
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THOUGHOUT MOST OF THE DAY ON
SAT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM NEAR THE COAST AND OFFSHORE
EARLY SAT THEN SHIFT INLAND BY AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER
IN NOT EXPECTED WITH THE BETTER COVERAGE ON SAT THOUGH A FEW STORMS
COULD BE STRONG ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS. THE MAIN UPPER SHORT WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK DAMPENING OUT SUN THROUGH TUE AS IT TRACKS
EASTWARD OVER WESTERN NC AND NORTHERN GA. WITH DEEP MOIST STILL IN
PLACE COMBINED WITH LESS FORCING IN THE MID LEVELS SUN THROUGH TUE
LESS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED LATER IN
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE FOR MEASUARBLE RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TO BE NEAR THE COAST EARLY IN THE DAY SHIFTING WELL
INLAND BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. AS FOR TEMPS WILL LEAN
TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE EXTENDED MAV/MET AND ECWMF FOR TEMPS IN THE
EXTEDED PDS. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S FOR
MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S CLOSER TO THE COAST.
32/EE

AVIATION (27/12Z ISSUANCE)...MAINLY A VFR FCST THROUGH NEXT 24
HOURS. WILL CARRY VCTS LATE AFTERNOON NEAR THE COASTAL TERMINALS
(MOB...BFM...PNS) BUT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE VERY
ISOLATED. OTHERWISE A PREDOMINANT LIGHT EASTERLY SFC WIND FLOW
EXPECTED...EXCEPT SLIGHT NORTHEASTERLY COMPONENT EARLY THIS MORNING
AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AND SLIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY NEAR THE COAST LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. 12/DS

MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE MARINE AREA OVER
THE SOUTHERN STATES WILL WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS STRONGER
HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN EAST OF FLORIDA AND
BEGINS TO RIDGE INTO THE EASTERN GULF OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. A LIGHT MAINLY EASTERLY WIND FLOW IS
EXPECTED THROUGH LATE THURSDAY...BECOMING MORE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE GULF RIDGE BUILDS.
SEAS INITIALLY IN THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE TODAY...GENERALLY DECREASING
TO AROUND 2 FEET FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST PERIOD. ISOLATED
CONVECTION OVER THE MARINE AREA TODAY AND THURSDAY...BECOMING A
LITTLE MORE NUMEROUS FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      92  72  93  72  92 /  20  10  20  10  50
PENSACOLA   92  73  92  75  92 /  20  10  10  10  40
DESTIN      92  75  90  75  90 /  10  05  10  10  40
EVERGREEN   93  64  95  66  93 /  10  05  05  05  30
WAYNESBORO  94  66  95  70  94 /  10  10  10  05  30
CAMDEN      93  64  95  66  94 /  05  05  05  05  20
CRESTVIEW   94  64  94  65  93 /  10  05  10  05  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KMOB 271442 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
942 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.UPDATE...MADE A MODEST UPTICK FOR POPS ON SATURDAY 12Z THROUGH SUNDAY
12Z AFTER REVIEWING MODEL OUTPUTS FOR HUMIDITY AND INSTABILITY.

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS UNLIKELY.

77/BD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 504 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE
NORTH OF THE FCST AREA WEAKENS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A CONTINUED PREDOMINATELY EASTERLY SYNOPTIC SCALE WIND FLOW
ACROSS THE FCST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH A SLIGHT NORTHEASTERLY
COMPONENT EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AND A SLIGHT
SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT (ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST) THIS AFTERNOON.
SFC DEWPOINTS HAVE MODERATED JUST SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS...AND WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S INTERIOR AND LOWER 70S
COASTAL THROUGH TONIGHT. SLIGHTLY GREATER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE OVER
THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE FCST AREA...COUPLED WITH A WEAKNESS ALOFT
JUST TO THE WEST OF THE FCST AREA WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING OVER THE WESTERN THIRD
OF THE FCST AREA. ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
OVER COASTAL ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE THIS
AFTERNOON AS WELL IN ASSOCIATION WITH WEAK SEA BREEZE INTERACTIONS.
ANY CONVECTION LINGERING INTO THE EVENING WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE.
HIGH TEMPS TODAY SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR...IN THE LOW TO MID 90S...BUT STILL SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
EARLIER THIS WEEK. WITH THE LOWER THAN NORMAL DEWPOINTS STILL OVER
THE REGION...LOW TEMPS TONIGHT NEAR OR A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...
RANGING FROM THE MID 60S INTERIOR COUNTIES TO LOWER 70S ALONG
IMMEDIATE COAST. 12/DS

(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...SFC TO H5 RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST CONUS...MS RIVER VALLEY AND NORTHERN GULF
OF MEXICO WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN SLOWLY ON THU GENERALLY FROM WEST TO
EAST IN RESPONSE TO NEXT MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TRACKING EASTWARD FROM
THE CENTRAL CONUS TO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY. WITH THIS PATTERN A
BETTER ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS LATER IN THE DAY ON THU CONTINUING
THROUGH FRI ALLOWING BETTER LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO BEGIN
ADVECTING NORTHWARD OVER THE FORECAST AREA RESULTING IN INCREASING
CLOUDS LATE THU AND THU NIGHT FOLLOWED BY MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FRI
WITH SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER INLAND AREAS
MOSTLY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON FRI. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
MEASURABLE RAIN WILL BEGIN NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND OFFSHORE
EARLY FRI MORNING THEN SPREAD INLAND OVER MUCH OF THE LOWER HALF OF
THE CWFA LATE FRI MORNING AND FRI AFTERNOON. THE BEST LIFT LOOKS TO
BE TO THE WEST AND OFFSHORE EARLY FRI GRADUALLY EAST AND NORTH
THROUGH FRI NIGHT. WITH MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED
ON THU AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE WARM SIDE WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS CLIMBING TO THE MID 90S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S CLOSER TO THE COAST. LOWS THU NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRI WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THEN PREVIOUS NIGHTS RANGING FROM
THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR INLAND AREAS IN AL AND NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE AND THE LOWER 70S OVER SOUTHEAST MS. WILL
USE AND BLEND OF THE MAV AND ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS THU
THROUGH FRI NIGHT.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE OVER
THE CENRAL CONUS CONTINUES TO MOVE FURTHER TO THE EAST REACHING THE
MID MS RIVER VALLEY BY MIDDAY SAT RESULTING IN A DEEPER ONSHORE FLOW
AND BETTER MOISTURE RETURN IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER SAT THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. BETTER LEFT WILL ALSO BER LIKLEY ON SAT RESULTING IN GOOD
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THOUGHOUT MOST OF THE DAY ON
SAT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM NEAR THE COAST AND OFFSHORE
EARLY SAT THEN SHIFT INLAND BY AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER
IN NOT EXPECTED WITH THE BETTER COVERAGE ON SAT THOUGH A FEW STORMS
COULD BE STRONG ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS. THE MAIN UPPER SHORT WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK DAMPENING OUT SUN THROUGH TUE AS IT TRACKS
EASTWARD OVER WESTERN NC AND NORTHERN GA. WITH DEEP MOIST STILL IN
PLACE COMBINED WITH LESS FORCING IN THE MID LEVELS SUN THROUGH TUE
LESS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED LATER IN
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE FOR MEASUARBLE RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TO BE NEAR THE COAST EARLY IN THE DAY SHIFTING WELL
INLAND BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. AS FOR TEMPS WILL LEAN
TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE EXTENDED MAV/MET AND ECWMF FOR TEMPS IN THE
EXTEDED PDS. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S FOR
MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S CLOSER TO THE COAST.
32/EE

AVIATION (27/12Z ISSUANCE)...MAINLY A VFR FCST THROUGH NEXT 24
HOURS. WILL CARRY VCTS LATE AFTERNOON NEAR THE COASTAL TERMINALS
(MOB...BFM...PNS) BUT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE VERY
ISOLATED. OTHERWISE A PREDOMINANT LIGHT EASTERLY SFC WIND FLOW
EXPECTED...EXCEPT SLIGHT NORTHEASTERLY COMPONENT EARLY THIS MORNING
AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AND SLIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY NEAR THE COAST LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. 12/DS

MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE MARINE AREA OVER
THE SOUTHERN STATES WILL WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS STRONGER
HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN EAST OF FLORIDA AND
BEGINS TO RIDGE INTO THE EASTERN GULF OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. A LIGHT MAINLY EASTERLY WIND FLOW IS
EXPECTED THROUGH LATE THURSDAY...BECOMING MORE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE GULF RIDGE BUILDS.
SEAS INITIALLY IN THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE TODAY...GENERALLY DECREASING
TO AROUND 2 FEET FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST PERIOD. ISOLATED
CONVECTION OVER THE MARINE AREA TODAY AND THURSDAY...BECOMING A
LITTLE MORE NUMEROUS FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      92  72  93  72  92 /  20  10  20  10  50
PENSACOLA   92  73  92  75  92 /  20  10  10  10  40
DESTIN      92  75  90  75  90 /  10  05  10  10  40
EVERGREEN   93  64  95  66  93 /  10  05  05  05  30
WAYNESBORO  94  66  95  70  94 /  10  10  10  05  30
CAMDEN      93  64  95  66  94 /  05  05  05  05  20
CRESTVIEW   94  64  94  65  93 /  10  05  10  05  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$











000
FXUS64 KMOB 271009
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
504 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE
NORTH OF THE FCST AREA WEAKENS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A CONTINUED PREDOMINATELY EASTERLY SYNOPTIC SCALE WIND FLOW
ACROSS THE FCST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH A SLIGHT NORTHEASTERLY
COMPONENT EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AND A SLIGHT
SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT (ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST) THIS AFTERNOON.
SFC DEWPOINTS HAVE MODERATED JUST SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS...AND WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S INTERIOR AND LOWER 70S
COASTAL THROUGH TONIGHT. SLIGHTLY GREATER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE OVER
THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE FCST AREA...COUPLED WITH A WEAKNESS ALOFT
JUST TO THE WEST OF THE FCST AREA WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING OVER THE WESTERN THIRD
OF THE FCST AREA. ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
OVER COASTAL ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE THIS
AFTERNOON AS WELL IN ASSOCIATION WITH WEAK SEA BREEZE INTERACTIONS.
ANY CONVECTION LINGERING INTO THE EVENING WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE.
HIGH TEMPS TODAY SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR...IN THE LOW TO MID 90S...BUT STILL SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
EARLIER THIS WEEK. WITH THE LOWER THAN NORMAL DEWPOINTS STILL OVER
THE REGION...LOW TEMPS TONIGHT NEAR OR A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...
RANGING FROM THE MID 60S INTERIOR COUNTIES TO LOWER 70S ALONG
IMMEDIATE COAST. 12/DS

(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...SFC TO H5 RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST CONUS...MS RIVER VALLEY AND NORTHERN GULF
OF MEXICO WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN SLOWLY ON THU GENERALLY FROM WEST TO
EAST IN RESPONSE TO NEXT MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TRACKING EASTWARD FROM
THE CENTRAL CONUS TO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY. WITH THIS PATTERN A
BETTER ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS LATER IN THE DAY ON THU CONTINUING
THROUGH FRI ALLOWING BETTER LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO BEGIN
ADVECTING NORTHWARD OVER THE FORECAST AREA RESULTING IN INCREASING
CLOUDS LATE THU AND THU NIGHT FOLLOWED BY MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FRI
WITH SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER INLAND AREAS
MOSTLY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON FRI. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
MEASURABLE RAIN WILL BEGIN NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND OFFSHORE
EARLY FRI MORNING THEN SPREAD INLAND OVER MUCH OF THE LOWER HALF OF
THE CWFA LATE FRI MORNING AND FRI AFTERNOON. THE BEST LIFT LOOKS TO
BE TO THE WEST AND OFFSHORE EARLY FRI GRADUALLY EAST AND NORTH
THROUGH FRI NIGHT. WITH MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED
ON THU AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE WARM SIDE WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS CLIMBING TO THE MID 90S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S CLOSER TO THE COAST. LOWS THU NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRI WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THEN PREVIOUS NIGHTS RANGING FROM
THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR INLAND AREAS IN AL AND NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE AND THE LOWER 70S OVER SOUTHEAST MS. WILL
USE AND BLEND OF THE MAV AND ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS THU
THROUGH FRI NIGHT.


.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE OVER
THE CENRAL CONUS CONTINUES TO MOVE FURTHER TO THE EAST REACHING THE
MID MS RIVER VALLEY BY MIDDAY SAT RESULTING IN A DEEPER ONSHORE FLOW
AND BETTER MOISTURE RETURN IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER SAT THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. BETTER LEFT WILL ALSO BER LIKLEY ON SAT RESULTING IN GOOD
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THOUGHOUT MOST OF THE DAY ON
SAT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM NEAR THE COAST AND OFFSHORE
EARLY SAT THEN SHIFT INLAND BY AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER
IN NOT EXPECTED WITH THE BETTER COVERAGE ON SAT THOUGH A FEW STORMS
COULD BE STRONG ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS. THE MAIN UPPER SHORT WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK DAMPENING OUT SUN THROUGH TUE AS IT TRACKS
EASTWARD OVER WESTERN NC AND NORTHERN GA. WITH DEEP MOIST STILL IN
PLACE COMBINED WITH LESS FORCING IN THE MID LEVELS SUN THROUGH TUE
LESS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED LATER IN
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE FOR MEASUARBLE RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TO BE NEAR THE COAST EARLY IN THE DAY SHIFTING WELL
INLAND BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. AS FOR TEMPS WILL LEAN
TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE EXTENDED MAV/MET AND ECWMF FOR TEMPS IN THE
EXTEDED PDS. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S FOR
MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S CLOSER TO THE COAST.
32/EE


&&

.AVIATION (27/12Z ISSUANCE)...MAINLY A VFR FCST THROUGH NEXT 24
HOURS. WILL CARRY VCTS LATE AFTERNOON NEAR THE COASTAL TERMINALS
(MOB...BFM...PNS) BUT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE VERY
ISOLATED. OTHERWISE A PREDOMINANT LIGHT EASTERLY SFC WIND FLOW
EXPECTED...EXCEPT SLIGHT NORTHEASTERLY COMPONENT EARLY THIS MORNING
AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AND SLIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY NEAR THE COAST LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. 12/DS

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE MARINE AREA OVER
THE SOUTHERN STATES WILL WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS STRONGER
HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN EAST OF FLORIDA AND
BEGINS TO RIDGE INTO THE EASTERN GULF OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. A LIGHT MAINLY EASTERLY WIND FLOW IS
EXPECTED THROUGH LATE THURSDAY...BECOMING MORE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE GULF RIDGE BUILDS.
SEAS INITIALLY IN THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE TODAY...GENERALLY DECREASING
TO AROUND 2 FEET FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST PERIOD. ISOLATED
CONVECTION OVER THE MARINE AREA TODAY AND THURSDAY...BECOMING A
LITTLE MORE NUMEROUS FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
12/DS


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      92  72  93  72  92 /  20  10  20  10  50
PENSACOLA   92  73  92  75  92 /  20  10  10  10  40
DESTIN      92  75  90  75  90 /  10  05  10  10  40
EVERGREEN   93  64  95  66  93 /  10  05  05  05  30
WAYNESBORO  94  66  95  70  94 /  10  10  10  05  30
CAMDEN      93  64  95  66  94 /  05  05  05  05  20
CRESTVIEW   94  64  94  65  93 /  10  05  10  05  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMOB 271009
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
504 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE
NORTH OF THE FCST AREA WEAKENS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A CONTINUED PREDOMINATELY EASTERLY SYNOPTIC SCALE WIND FLOW
ACROSS THE FCST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH A SLIGHT NORTHEASTERLY
COMPONENT EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AND A SLIGHT
SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT (ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST) THIS AFTERNOON.
SFC DEWPOINTS HAVE MODERATED JUST SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS...AND WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S INTERIOR AND LOWER 70S
COASTAL THROUGH TONIGHT. SLIGHTLY GREATER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE OVER
THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE FCST AREA...COUPLED WITH A WEAKNESS ALOFT
JUST TO THE WEST OF THE FCST AREA WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING OVER THE WESTERN THIRD
OF THE FCST AREA. ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
OVER COASTAL ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE THIS
AFTERNOON AS WELL IN ASSOCIATION WITH WEAK SEA BREEZE INTERACTIONS.
ANY CONVECTION LINGERING INTO THE EVENING WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE.
HIGH TEMPS TODAY SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR...IN THE LOW TO MID 90S...BUT STILL SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
EARLIER THIS WEEK. WITH THE LOWER THAN NORMAL DEWPOINTS STILL OVER
THE REGION...LOW TEMPS TONIGHT NEAR OR A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...
RANGING FROM THE MID 60S INTERIOR COUNTIES TO LOWER 70S ALONG
IMMEDIATE COAST. 12/DS

(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...SFC TO H5 RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST CONUS...MS RIVER VALLEY AND NORTHERN GULF
OF MEXICO WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN SLOWLY ON THU GENERALLY FROM WEST TO
EAST IN RESPONSE TO NEXT MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TRACKING EASTWARD FROM
THE CENTRAL CONUS TO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY. WITH THIS PATTERN A
BETTER ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS LATER IN THE DAY ON THU CONTINUING
THROUGH FRI ALLOWING BETTER LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO BEGIN
ADVECTING NORTHWARD OVER THE FORECAST AREA RESULTING IN INCREASING
CLOUDS LATE THU AND THU NIGHT FOLLOWED BY MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FRI
WITH SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER INLAND AREAS
MOSTLY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON FRI. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
MEASURABLE RAIN WILL BEGIN NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND OFFSHORE
EARLY FRI MORNING THEN SPREAD INLAND OVER MUCH OF THE LOWER HALF OF
THE CWFA LATE FRI MORNING AND FRI AFTERNOON. THE BEST LIFT LOOKS TO
BE TO THE WEST AND OFFSHORE EARLY FRI GRADUALLY EAST AND NORTH
THROUGH FRI NIGHT. WITH MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED
ON THU AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE WARM SIDE WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS CLIMBING TO THE MID 90S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S CLOSER TO THE COAST. LOWS THU NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRI WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THEN PREVIOUS NIGHTS RANGING FROM
THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR INLAND AREAS IN AL AND NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE AND THE LOWER 70S OVER SOUTHEAST MS. WILL
USE AND BLEND OF THE MAV AND ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS THU
THROUGH FRI NIGHT.


.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE OVER
THE CENRAL CONUS CONTINUES TO MOVE FURTHER TO THE EAST REACHING THE
MID MS RIVER VALLEY BY MIDDAY SAT RESULTING IN A DEEPER ONSHORE FLOW
AND BETTER MOISTURE RETURN IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER SAT THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. BETTER LEFT WILL ALSO BER LIKLEY ON SAT RESULTING IN GOOD
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THOUGHOUT MOST OF THE DAY ON
SAT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM NEAR THE COAST AND OFFSHORE
EARLY SAT THEN SHIFT INLAND BY AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER
IN NOT EXPECTED WITH THE BETTER COVERAGE ON SAT THOUGH A FEW STORMS
COULD BE STRONG ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS. THE MAIN UPPER SHORT WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK DAMPENING OUT SUN THROUGH TUE AS IT TRACKS
EASTWARD OVER WESTERN NC AND NORTHERN GA. WITH DEEP MOIST STILL IN
PLACE COMBINED WITH LESS FORCING IN THE MID LEVELS SUN THROUGH TUE
LESS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED LATER IN
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE FOR MEASUARBLE RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TO BE NEAR THE COAST EARLY IN THE DAY SHIFTING WELL
INLAND BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. AS FOR TEMPS WILL LEAN
TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE EXTENDED MAV/MET AND ECWMF FOR TEMPS IN THE
EXTEDED PDS. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S FOR
MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S CLOSER TO THE COAST.
32/EE


&&

.AVIATION (27/12Z ISSUANCE)...MAINLY A VFR FCST THROUGH NEXT 24
HOURS. WILL CARRY VCTS LATE AFTERNOON NEAR THE COASTAL TERMINALS
(MOB...BFM...PNS) BUT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE VERY
ISOLATED. OTHERWISE A PREDOMINANT LIGHT EASTERLY SFC WIND FLOW
EXPECTED...EXCEPT SLIGHT NORTHEASTERLY COMPONENT EARLY THIS MORNING
AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AND SLIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY NEAR THE COAST LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. 12/DS

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE MARINE AREA OVER
THE SOUTHERN STATES WILL WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS STRONGER
HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN EAST OF FLORIDA AND
BEGINS TO RIDGE INTO THE EASTERN GULF OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. A LIGHT MAINLY EASTERLY WIND FLOW IS
EXPECTED THROUGH LATE THURSDAY...BECOMING MORE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE GULF RIDGE BUILDS.
SEAS INITIALLY IN THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE TODAY...GENERALLY DECREASING
TO AROUND 2 FEET FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST PERIOD. ISOLATED
CONVECTION OVER THE MARINE AREA TODAY AND THURSDAY...BECOMING A
LITTLE MORE NUMEROUS FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
12/DS


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      92  72  93  72  92 /  20  10  20  10  50
PENSACOLA   92  73  92  75  92 /  20  10  10  10  40
DESTIN      92  75  90  75  90 /  10  05  10  10  40
EVERGREEN   93  64  95  66  93 /  10  05  05  05  30
WAYNESBORO  94  66  95  70  94 /  10  10  10  05  30
CAMDEN      93  64  95  66  94 /  05  05  05  05  20
CRESTVIEW   94  64  94  65  93 /  10  05  10  05  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMOB 271004
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
504 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT)...SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE
NORTH OF THE FCST AREA WEAKENS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A CONTINUED PREDOMINATELY EASTERLY SYNOPTIC SCALE WIND FLOW
ACROSS THE FCST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH A SLIGHT NORTHEASTERLY
COMPONENT EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AND A SLIGHT
SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT (ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST) THIS AFTERNOON.
SFC DEWPOINTS HAVE MODERATED JUST SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS...AND WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S INTERIOR AND LOWER 70S
COASTAL THROUGH TONIGHT. SLIGHTLY GREATER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE OVER
THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE FCST AREA...COUPLED WITH A WEAKNESS ALOFT
JUST TO THE WEST OF THE FCST AREA WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING OVER THE WESTERN THIRD
OF THE FCST AREA. ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
OVER COASTAL ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE THIS
AFTERNOON AS WELL IN ASSOCIATION WITH WEAK SEA BREEZE INTERACTIONS.
ANY CONVECTION LINGERING INTO THE EVENING WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE.
HIGH TEMPS TODAY SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR...IN THE LOW TO MID 90S...BUT STILL SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
EARLIER THIS WEEK. WITH THE LOWER THAN NORMAL DEWPOINTS STILL OVER
THE REGION...LOW TEMPS TONIGHT NEAR OR A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...
RANGING FROM THE MID 60S INTERIOR COUNTIES TO LOWER 70S ALONG
IMMEDIATE COAST. 12/DS


[THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT]...SFC TO H5 RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER
MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST CONUS...MS RIVER VALLEY AND NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN SLOWLY ON THU GENERALLY FROM WEST TO EAST
IN RESPONSE TO NEXT MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TRACKING EASTWARD FROM THE
CENTRAL CONUS TO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY. WITH THIS PATTERN A BETTER
ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS LATER IN THE DAY ON THU CONTINUING THROUGH FRI
ALLOWING BETTER LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO BEGIN ADVECTING
NORTHWARD OVER THE FORECAST AREA RESULTING IN INCREASING CLOUDS LATE
THU AND THU NIGHT FOLLOWED BY MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FRI WITH SCT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER INLAND AREAS MOSTLY DURING
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON FRI. THE BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAIN WILL
BEGIN NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND OFFSHORE EARLY FRI MORNING THEN
SPREAD INLAND OVER MUCH OF THE LOWER HALF OF THE CWFA LATE FRI
MORNING AND FRI AFTERNOON. THE BEST LIFT LOOKS TO BE TO THE WEST AND
OFFSHORE EARLY FRI GRADUALLY EAST AND NORTH THROUGH FRI NIGHT. WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED ON THU AFTERNOON TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE WARM SIDE WITH DAYTIME HIGHS CLIMBING TO
THE MID 90S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S
CLOSER TO THE COAST. LOWS THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI WILL BE A LITTLE
WARMER THEN PREVIOUS NIGHTS RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR
INLAND AREAS IN AL AND NORTHERN PORTION OF THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE
AND THE LOWER 70S OVER SOUTHEAST MS. WILL USE AND BLEND OF THE MAV
AND ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS THU THROUGH FRI NIGHT.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]...MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE OVER
THE CENRAL CONUS CONTINUES TO MOVE FURTHER TO THE EAST REACHING THE
MID MS RIVER VALLEY BY MIDDAY SAT RESULTING IN A DEEPER ONSHORE FLOW
AND BETTER MOISTURE RETURN IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER SAT THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. BETTER LEFT WILL ALSO BER LIKLEY ON SAT RESULTING IN GOOD
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THOUGHOUT MOST OF THE DAY ON
SAT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM NEAR THE COAST AND OFFSHORE
EARLY SAT THEN SHIFT INLAND BY AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER
IN NOT EXPECTED WITH THE BETTER COVERAGE ON SAT THOUGH A FEW STORMS
COULD BE STRONG ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS. THE MAIN UPPER SHORT WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK DAMPENING OUT SUN THROUGH TUE AS IT TRACKS
EASTWARD OVER WESTERN NC AND NORTHERN GA. WITH DEEP MOIST STILL IN
PLACE COMBINED WITH LESS FORCING IN THE MID LEVELS SUN THROUGH TUE
LESS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED LATER IN
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE FOR MEASUARBLE RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TO BE NEAR THE COAST EARLY IN THE DAY SHIFTING WELL
INLAND BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. AS FOR TEMPS WILL LEAN
TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE EXTENDED MAV/MET AND ECWMF FOR TEMPS IN THE
EXTEDED PDS. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S FOR
MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S CLOSER TO THE COAST.
32/EE


&&

.AVIATION...(27/12Z ISSUANCE)...MAINLY A VFR FCST THROUGH NEXT 24
HOURS. WILL CARRY VCTS LATE AFTERNOON NEAR THE COASTAL TERMINALS
(MOB...BFM...PNS) BUT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE VERY
ISOLATED. OTHERWISE A PREDOMINANT LIGHT EASTERLY SFC WIND FLOW
EXPECTED...EXCEPT SLIGHT NORTHEASTERLY COMPONENT EARLY THIS MORNING
AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AND SLIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY NEAR THE COAST LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. 12/DS

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE MARINE AREA OVER
THE SOUTHERN STATES WILL WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS STRONGER
HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN EAST OF FLORIDA AND
BEGINS TO RIDGE INTO THE EASTERN GULF OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. A LIGHT MAINLY EASTERLY WIND FLOW IS
EXPECTED THROUGH LATE THURSDAY...BECOMING MORE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE GULF RIDGE BUILDS.
SEAS INITIALLY IN THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE TODAY...GENERALLY DECREASING
TO AROUND 2 FEET FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST PERIOD. ISOLATED
CONVECTION OVER THE MARINE AREA TODAY AND THURSDAY...BECOMING A
LITTLE MORE NUMEROUS FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
12/DS


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      92  72  93  72  92 /  20  10  20  10  50
PENSACOLA   92  73  92  75  92 /  20  10  10  10  40
DESTIN      92  75  90  75  90 /  10  05  10  10  40
EVERGREEN   93  64  95  66  93 /  10  05  05  05  30
WAYNESBORO  94  66  95  70  94 /  10  10  10  05  30
CAMDEN      93  64  95  66  94 /  05  05  05  05  20
CRESTVIEW   94  64  94  65  93 /  10  05  10  05  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMOB 271004
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
504 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT)...SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE
NORTH OF THE FCST AREA WEAKENS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A CONTINUED PREDOMINATELY EASTERLY SYNOPTIC SCALE WIND FLOW
ACROSS THE FCST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH A SLIGHT NORTHEASTERLY
COMPONENT EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AND A SLIGHT
SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT (ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST) THIS AFTERNOON.
SFC DEWPOINTS HAVE MODERATED JUST SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS...AND WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S INTERIOR AND LOWER 70S
COASTAL THROUGH TONIGHT. SLIGHTLY GREATER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE OVER
THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE FCST AREA...COUPLED WITH A WEAKNESS ALOFT
JUST TO THE WEST OF THE FCST AREA WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING OVER THE WESTERN THIRD
OF THE FCST AREA. ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
OVER COASTAL ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE THIS
AFTERNOON AS WELL IN ASSOCIATION WITH WEAK SEA BREEZE INTERACTIONS.
ANY CONVECTION LINGERING INTO THE EVENING WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE.
HIGH TEMPS TODAY SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR...IN THE LOW TO MID 90S...BUT STILL SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
EARLIER THIS WEEK. WITH THE LOWER THAN NORMAL DEWPOINTS STILL OVER
THE REGION...LOW TEMPS TONIGHT NEAR OR A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...
RANGING FROM THE MID 60S INTERIOR COUNTIES TO LOWER 70S ALONG
IMMEDIATE COAST. 12/DS


[THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT]...SFC TO H5 RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER
MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST CONUS...MS RIVER VALLEY AND NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN SLOWLY ON THU GENERALLY FROM WEST TO EAST
IN RESPONSE TO NEXT MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TRACKING EASTWARD FROM THE
CENTRAL CONUS TO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY. WITH THIS PATTERN A BETTER
ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS LATER IN THE DAY ON THU CONTINUING THROUGH FRI
ALLOWING BETTER LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO BEGIN ADVECTING
NORTHWARD OVER THE FORECAST AREA RESULTING IN INCREASING CLOUDS LATE
THU AND THU NIGHT FOLLOWED BY MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FRI WITH SCT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER INLAND AREAS MOSTLY DURING
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON FRI. THE BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAIN WILL
BEGIN NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND OFFSHORE EARLY FRI MORNING THEN
SPREAD INLAND OVER MUCH OF THE LOWER HALF OF THE CWFA LATE FRI
MORNING AND FRI AFTERNOON. THE BEST LIFT LOOKS TO BE TO THE WEST AND
OFFSHORE EARLY FRI GRADUALLY EAST AND NORTH THROUGH FRI NIGHT. WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED ON THU AFTERNOON TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE WARM SIDE WITH DAYTIME HIGHS CLIMBING TO
THE MID 90S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S
CLOSER TO THE COAST. LOWS THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI WILL BE A LITTLE
WARMER THEN PREVIOUS NIGHTS RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR
INLAND AREAS IN AL AND NORTHERN PORTION OF THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE
AND THE LOWER 70S OVER SOUTHEAST MS. WILL USE AND BLEND OF THE MAV
AND ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS THU THROUGH FRI NIGHT.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]...MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE OVER
THE CENRAL CONUS CONTINUES TO MOVE FURTHER TO THE EAST REACHING THE
MID MS RIVER VALLEY BY MIDDAY SAT RESULTING IN A DEEPER ONSHORE FLOW
AND BETTER MOISTURE RETURN IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER SAT THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. BETTER LEFT WILL ALSO BER LIKLEY ON SAT RESULTING IN GOOD
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THOUGHOUT MOST OF THE DAY ON
SAT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM NEAR THE COAST AND OFFSHORE
EARLY SAT THEN SHIFT INLAND BY AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER
IN NOT EXPECTED WITH THE BETTER COVERAGE ON SAT THOUGH A FEW STORMS
COULD BE STRONG ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS. THE MAIN UPPER SHORT WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK DAMPENING OUT SUN THROUGH TUE AS IT TRACKS
EASTWARD OVER WESTERN NC AND NORTHERN GA. WITH DEEP MOIST STILL IN
PLACE COMBINED WITH LESS FORCING IN THE MID LEVELS SUN THROUGH TUE
LESS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED LATER IN
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE FOR MEASUARBLE RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TO BE NEAR THE COAST EARLY IN THE DAY SHIFTING WELL
INLAND BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. AS FOR TEMPS WILL LEAN
TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE EXTENDED MAV/MET AND ECWMF FOR TEMPS IN THE
EXTEDED PDS. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S FOR
MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S CLOSER TO THE COAST.
32/EE


&&

.AVIATION...(27/12Z ISSUANCE)...MAINLY A VFR FCST THROUGH NEXT 24
HOURS. WILL CARRY VCTS LATE AFTERNOON NEAR THE COASTAL TERMINALS
(MOB...BFM...PNS) BUT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE VERY
ISOLATED. OTHERWISE A PREDOMINANT LIGHT EASTERLY SFC WIND FLOW
EXPECTED...EXCEPT SLIGHT NORTHEASTERLY COMPONENT EARLY THIS MORNING
AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AND SLIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY NEAR THE COAST LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. 12/DS

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE MARINE AREA OVER
THE SOUTHERN STATES WILL WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS STRONGER
HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN EAST OF FLORIDA AND
BEGINS TO RIDGE INTO THE EASTERN GULF OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. A LIGHT MAINLY EASTERLY WIND FLOW IS
EXPECTED THROUGH LATE THURSDAY...BECOMING MORE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE GULF RIDGE BUILDS.
SEAS INITIALLY IN THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE TODAY...GENERALLY DECREASING
TO AROUND 2 FEET FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST PERIOD. ISOLATED
CONVECTION OVER THE MARINE AREA TODAY AND THURSDAY...BECOMING A
LITTLE MORE NUMEROUS FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
12/DS


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      92  72  93  72  92 /  20  10  20  10  50
PENSACOLA   92  73  92  75  92 /  20  10  10  10  40
DESTIN      92  75  90  75  90 /  10  05  10  10  40
EVERGREEN   93  64  95  66  93 /  10  05  05  05  30
WAYNESBORO  94  66  95  70  94 /  10  10  10  05  30
CAMDEN      93  64  95  66  94 /  05  05  05  05  20
CRESTVIEW   94  64  94  65  93 /  10  05  10  05  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KMOB 270432 AAC
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1132 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.AVIATION [27.06Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF ISSUANCE]...CLOUDS ALONG ELONGATED
SURFACE TROF EXTENDING FROM CUBA...TO OFF THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA COAST
HAVE DIMINISHED WITH SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVER THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST. VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT...BECOME SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
/10

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 833 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

UPDATE...HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENT HAZARD PRODUCTS HAVE ENDED AND
WILL REMOVE HEADLINES FROM COASTAL ZONES. AN ELONGATED SURFACE TROF
EXTENDING FROM CUBA...TO OFF THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA COAST IS ACCOMPANIED
BY CLOUDINESS. CLOUDS ARE AT MID TO HIGH LEVELS SO NOT EXPECTING RAIN
FROM THESE OVERNIGHT. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME. /10

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 649 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

AVIATION [27.00Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF ISSUANCE]...AN ELONGATED
SURFACE TROF EXTENDING FROM CUBA...TO OFF THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA COAST
IS ACCOMPANIED BY CLOUDINESS. THE NORTHERN END OF THE TROF...HAS ITS
CLOUD APPEARANCE EXPANDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...BUT BASES
ARE AT MID TO HIGH LEVELS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS EVENING BECOME MORE EAST TO
NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. /10

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON]...THE DRY AIRMASS
WILL ALLOW LOW TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE MID 60S INLAND TO MID 70S
ALONG THE COAST. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL WARM A DEGREE OR TWO OVER
TODAY...INTO THE LOW 90S WITH A FEW MID 90S POSSIBLE INLAND. /13

[WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT]...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM NORTHWEST MEXICO ACROSS THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION TO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING. THIS RIDGE WILL SPLIT IN TWO PIECES...WITH THE EASTERN
PORTION EVOLVING INTO AN UPPER HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER THE SOUTHEAST
STATES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM. THE SURFACE RIDGE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL MAINTAIN A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 1.0 AND 1.6 INCHES.
THE INFLUENCE OF THESE TWO HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL KEEP THE AREA
RAIN-FREE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM 65 TO 72 DEGREES...EXCEPT FOR THE MID 70S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM 90 TO 95 DEGREES.
LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 68 TO 73 DEGREES
INLAND AREAS...AND FROM 74 TO 77 DEGREES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
/22

LONG TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]...THE UPPER TROF OVER THE
CENTRAL STATES SLOWLY EJECTS OFF ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES THROUGH
MONDAY AS UPPER RIDGING PERSISTS OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
STATES.  A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF STRENGTHENS SOMEWHAT
THROUGH THE PERIOD AND MAINTAINS A PREDOMINATELY SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER
THE FORECAST AREA...WITH ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE SPREADING NORTHWARD
INTO THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND REMAINS IN PLACE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.  WITH DAYTIME HIGHS ABOUT A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD AND GULF MOISTURE OVER THE REGION...EXPECT
THE SEA BREEZE AND DAYTIME HEATING TO SUPPORT CHANCE POPS FOR MOST
OF THE AREA EACH DAY.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. /29

MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE ACROSS THE MARINE
AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GULF. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD LATE IN THE WEEK...A
LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WIND FLOW RETURNS. /13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      72  93  72  93  73 /  05  20  05  05  05
PENSACOLA   74  92  75  92  76 /  05  20  05  05  05
DESTIN      76  90  75  90  77 /  05  10  05  05  05
EVERGREEN   65  94  67  95  68 /  05  05  05  05  05
WAYNESBORO  65  94  67  95  69 /  05  10  05  05  05
CAMDEN      65  94  67  95  68 /  05  00  05  05  05
CRESTVIEW   66  94  67  94  69 /  05  10  05  05  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMOB 270432 AAC
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1132 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.AVIATION [27.06Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF ISSUANCE]...CLOUDS ALONG ELONGATED
SURFACE TROF EXTENDING FROM CUBA...TO OFF THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA COAST
HAVE DIMINISHED WITH SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVER THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST. VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT...BECOME SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
/10

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 833 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

UPDATE...HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENT HAZARD PRODUCTS HAVE ENDED AND
WILL REMOVE HEADLINES FROM COASTAL ZONES. AN ELONGATED SURFACE TROF
EXTENDING FROM CUBA...TO OFF THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA COAST IS ACCOMPANIED
BY CLOUDINESS. CLOUDS ARE AT MID TO HIGH LEVELS SO NOT EXPECTING RAIN
FROM THESE OVERNIGHT. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME. /10

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 649 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

AVIATION [27.00Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF ISSUANCE]...AN ELONGATED
SURFACE TROF EXTENDING FROM CUBA...TO OFF THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA COAST
IS ACCOMPANIED BY CLOUDINESS. THE NORTHERN END OF THE TROF...HAS ITS
CLOUD APPEARANCE EXPANDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...BUT BASES
ARE AT MID TO HIGH LEVELS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS EVENING BECOME MORE EAST TO
NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. /10

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON]...THE DRY AIRMASS
WILL ALLOW LOW TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE MID 60S INLAND TO MID 70S
ALONG THE COAST. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL WARM A DEGREE OR TWO OVER
TODAY...INTO THE LOW 90S WITH A FEW MID 90S POSSIBLE INLAND. /13

[WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT]...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM NORTHWEST MEXICO ACROSS THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION TO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING. THIS RIDGE WILL SPLIT IN TWO PIECES...WITH THE EASTERN
PORTION EVOLVING INTO AN UPPER HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER THE SOUTHEAST
STATES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM. THE SURFACE RIDGE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL MAINTAIN A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 1.0 AND 1.6 INCHES.
THE INFLUENCE OF THESE TWO HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL KEEP THE AREA
RAIN-FREE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM 65 TO 72 DEGREES...EXCEPT FOR THE MID 70S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM 90 TO 95 DEGREES.
LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 68 TO 73 DEGREES
INLAND AREAS...AND FROM 74 TO 77 DEGREES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
/22

LONG TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]...THE UPPER TROF OVER THE
CENTRAL STATES SLOWLY EJECTS OFF ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES THROUGH
MONDAY AS UPPER RIDGING PERSISTS OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
STATES.  A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF STRENGTHENS SOMEWHAT
THROUGH THE PERIOD AND MAINTAINS A PREDOMINATELY SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER
THE FORECAST AREA...WITH ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE SPREADING NORTHWARD
INTO THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND REMAINS IN PLACE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.  WITH DAYTIME HIGHS ABOUT A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD AND GULF MOISTURE OVER THE REGION...EXPECT
THE SEA BREEZE AND DAYTIME HEATING TO SUPPORT CHANCE POPS FOR MOST
OF THE AREA EACH DAY.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. /29

MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE ACROSS THE MARINE
AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GULF. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD LATE IN THE WEEK...A
LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WIND FLOW RETURNS. /13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      72  93  72  93  73 /  05  20  05  05  05
PENSACOLA   74  92  75  92  76 /  05  20  05  05  05
DESTIN      76  90  75  90  77 /  05  10  05  05  05
EVERGREEN   65  94  67  95  68 /  05  05  05  05  05
WAYNESBORO  65  94  67  95  69 /  05  10  05  05  05
CAMDEN      65  94  67  95  68 /  05  00  05  05  05
CRESTVIEW   66  94  67  94  69 /  05  10  05  05  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KMOB 270133 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
833 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.UPDATE...HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENT HAZARD PRODUCTS HAVE ENDED AND
WILL REMOVE HEADLINES FROM COASTAL ZONES. AN ELONGATED SURFACE TROF
EXTENDING FROM CUBA...TO OFF THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA COAST IS ACCOMPANIED
BY CLOUDINESS. CLOUDS ARE AT MID TO HIGH LEVELS SO NOT EXPECTING RAIN
FROM THESE OVERNIGHT. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME. /10

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 649 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

AVIATION [27.00Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF ISSUANCE]...AN ELONGATED
SURFACE TROF EXTENDING FROM CUBA...TO OFF THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA COAST
IS ACCOMPANIED BY CLOUDINESS. THE NORTHERN END OF THE TROF...HAS ITS
CLOUD APPEARANCE EXPANDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...BUT BASES
ARE AT MID TO HIGH LEVELS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS EVENING BECOME MORE EAST TO
NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. /10

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON]...THE DRY AIRMASS
WILL ALLOW LOW TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE MID 60S INLAND TO MID 70S
ALONG THE COAST. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL WARM A DEGREE OR TWO OVER
TODAY...INTO THE LOW 90S WITH A FEW MID 90S POSSIBLE INLAND. /13

[WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT]...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM NORTHWEST MEXICO ACROSS THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION TO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING. THIS RIDGE WILL SPLIT IN TWO PIECES...WITH THE EASTERN
PORTION EVOLVING INTO AN UPPER HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER THE SOUTHEAST
STATES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM. THE SURFACE RIDGE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL MAINTAIN A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 1.0 AND 1.6 INCHES.
THE INFLUENCE OF THESE TWO HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL KEEP THE AREA
RAIN-FREE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM 65 TO 72 DEGREES...EXCEPT FOR THE MID 70S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM 90 TO 95 DEGREES.
LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 68 TO 73 DEGREES
INLAND AREAS...AND FROM 74 TO 77 DEGREES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
/22

LONG TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]...THE UPPER TROF OVER THE
CENTRAL STATES SLOWLY EJECTS OFF ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES THROUGH
MONDAY AS UPPER RIDGING PERSISTS OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
STATES.  A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF STRENGTHENS SOMEWHAT
THROUGH THE PERIOD AND MAINTAINS A PREDOMINATELY SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER
THE FORECAST AREA...WITH ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE SPREADING NORTHWARD
INTO THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND REMAINS IN PLACE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.  WITH DAYTIME HIGHS ABOUT A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD AND GULF MOISTURE OVER THE REGION...EXPECT
THE SEA BREEZE AND DAYTIME HEATING TO SUPPORT CHANCE POPS FOR MOST
OF THE AREA EACH DAY.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. /29

MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE ACROSS THE MARINE
AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GULF. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD LATE IN THE WEEK...A
LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WIND FLOW RETURNS. /13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      72  93  72  93  73 /  05  20  05  05  05
PENSACOLA   74  92  75  92  76 /  05  20  05  05  05
DESTIN      76  90  75  90  77 /  05  10  05  05  05
EVERGREEN   65  94  67  95  68 /  05  05  05  05  05
WAYNESBORO  65  94  67  95  69 /  05  10  05  05  05
CAMDEN      65  94  67  95  68 /  05  00  05  05  05
CRESTVIEW   66  94  67  94  69 /  05  10  05  05  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMOB 270133 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
833 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.UPDATE...HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENT HAZARD PRODUCTS HAVE ENDED AND
WILL REMOVE HEADLINES FROM COASTAL ZONES. AN ELONGATED SURFACE TROF
EXTENDING FROM CUBA...TO OFF THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA COAST IS ACCOMPANIED
BY CLOUDINESS. CLOUDS ARE AT MID TO HIGH LEVELS SO NOT EXPECTING RAIN
FROM THESE OVERNIGHT. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME. /10

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 649 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

AVIATION [27.00Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF ISSUANCE]...AN ELONGATED
SURFACE TROF EXTENDING FROM CUBA...TO OFF THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA COAST
IS ACCOMPANIED BY CLOUDINESS. THE NORTHERN END OF THE TROF...HAS ITS
CLOUD APPEARANCE EXPANDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...BUT BASES
ARE AT MID TO HIGH LEVELS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS EVENING BECOME MORE EAST TO
NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. /10

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON]...THE DRY AIRMASS
WILL ALLOW LOW TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE MID 60S INLAND TO MID 70S
ALONG THE COAST. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL WARM A DEGREE OR TWO OVER
TODAY...INTO THE LOW 90S WITH A FEW MID 90S POSSIBLE INLAND. /13

[WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT]...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM NORTHWEST MEXICO ACROSS THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION TO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING. THIS RIDGE WILL SPLIT IN TWO PIECES...WITH THE EASTERN
PORTION EVOLVING INTO AN UPPER HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER THE SOUTHEAST
STATES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM. THE SURFACE RIDGE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL MAINTAIN A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 1.0 AND 1.6 INCHES.
THE INFLUENCE OF THESE TWO HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL KEEP THE AREA
RAIN-FREE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM 65 TO 72 DEGREES...EXCEPT FOR THE MID 70S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM 90 TO 95 DEGREES.
LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 68 TO 73 DEGREES
INLAND AREAS...AND FROM 74 TO 77 DEGREES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
/22

LONG TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]...THE UPPER TROF OVER THE
CENTRAL STATES SLOWLY EJECTS OFF ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES THROUGH
MONDAY AS UPPER RIDGING PERSISTS OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
STATES.  A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF STRENGTHENS SOMEWHAT
THROUGH THE PERIOD AND MAINTAINS A PREDOMINATELY SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER
THE FORECAST AREA...WITH ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE SPREADING NORTHWARD
INTO THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND REMAINS IN PLACE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.  WITH DAYTIME HIGHS ABOUT A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD AND GULF MOISTURE OVER THE REGION...EXPECT
THE SEA BREEZE AND DAYTIME HEATING TO SUPPORT CHANCE POPS FOR MOST
OF THE AREA EACH DAY.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. /29

MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE ACROSS THE MARINE
AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GULF. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD LATE IN THE WEEK...A
LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WIND FLOW RETURNS. /13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      72  93  72  93  73 /  05  20  05  05  05
PENSACOLA   74  92  75  92  76 /  05  20  05  05  05
DESTIN      76  90  75  90  77 /  05  10  05  05  05
EVERGREEN   65  94  67  95  68 /  05  05  05  05  05
WAYNESBORO  65  94  67  95  69 /  05  10  05  05  05
CAMDEN      65  94  67  95  68 /  05  00  05  05  05
CRESTVIEW   66  94  67  94  69 /  05  10  05  05  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KMOB 262349 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
649 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

AVIATION [27.00Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF ISSUANCE]...AN ELONGATED
SURFACE TROF EXTENDING FROM CUBA...TO OFF THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA COAST
IS ACCOMPANIED BY CLOUDINESS. THE NORTHERN END OF THE TROF...HAS ITS
CLOUD APPEARANCE EXPANDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...BUT BASES
ARE AT MID TO HIGH LEVELS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS EVENING BECOME MORE EAST TO
NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. /10

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON]...AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MEANWHILE A LINGERING SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC WILL
MAINTAIN AN EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL CONTINUE A MAINLY
DRY FORECAST WITH LOWER HUMIDITY LEVELS. A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH FROM
THE WESTERN GULF EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF MAY BE ENOUGH FOR
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM NEAR THE COAST WHERE DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO
BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER...HOWEVER CHANCES WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 20%. THE
DRY AIRMASS WILL AGAIN ALLOW LOW TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE MID 60S
INLAND TO MID 70S ALONG THE COAST. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL WARM A
DEGREE OR TWO OVER TODAY INTO THE LOW 90S WITH A FEW MID 90S
POSSIBLE INLAND. /13

[WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT]...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM NORTHWEST MEXICO ACROSS THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION TO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING. THIS RIDGE WILL SPLIT IN TWO PIECES...WITH THE EASTERN
PORTION EVOLVING INTO AN UPPER HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER THE SOUTHEAST
STATES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM. THE SURFACE RIDGE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL MAINTAIN A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 1.0 AND 1.6 INCHES.
THE INFLUENCE OF THESE TWO HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL KEEP THE AREA
RAIN-FREE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM 65 TO 72 DEGREES...EXCEPT FOR THE MID 70S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM 90 TO 95 DEGREES.
LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 68 TO 73 DEGREES
INLAND AREAS...AND FROM 74 TO 77 DEGREES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
/22

LONG TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]...THE UPPER TROF OVER THE
CENTRAL STATES SLOWLY EJECTS OFF ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES THROUGH
MONDAY AS UPPER RIDGING PERSISTS OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
STATES.  A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF STRENGTHENS SOMEWHAT
THROUGH THE PERIOD AND MAINTAINS A PREDOMINATELY SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER
THE FORECAST AREA...WITH ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE SPREADING NORTHWARD
INTO THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND REMAINS IN PLACE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.  WITH DAYTIME HIGHS ABOUT A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD AND GULF MOISTURE OVER THE REGION...EXPECT
THE SEA BREEZE AND DAYTIME HEATING TO SUPPORT CHANCE POPS FOR MOST
OF THE AREA EACH DAY.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. /29

MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE ACROSS THE MARINE
AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GULF. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD LATE IN THE WEEK...A
LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WIND FLOW RETURNS. /13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      72  93  72  93  73 /  05  20  05  05  05
PENSACOLA   74  92  75  92  76 /  10  20  05  05  05
DESTIN      76  90  75  90  77 /  10  10  05  05  05
EVERGREEN   65  94  67  95  68 /  05  05  05  05  05
WAYNESBORO  65  94  67  95  69 /  05  10  05  05  05
CAMDEN      65  94  67  95  68 /  05  00  05  05  05
CRESTVIEW   66  94  67  94  69 /  10  10  05  05  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA
     ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMOB 262349 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
649 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

AVIATION [27.00Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF ISSUANCE]...AN ELONGATED
SURFACE TROF EXTENDING FROM CUBA...TO OFF THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA COAST
IS ACCOMPANIED BY CLOUDINESS. THE NORTHERN END OF THE TROF...HAS ITS
CLOUD APPEARANCE EXPANDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...BUT BASES
ARE AT MID TO HIGH LEVELS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS EVENING BECOME MORE EAST TO
NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. /10

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON]...AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MEANWHILE A LINGERING SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC WILL
MAINTAIN AN EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL CONTINUE A MAINLY
DRY FORECAST WITH LOWER HUMIDITY LEVELS. A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH FROM
THE WESTERN GULF EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF MAY BE ENOUGH FOR
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM NEAR THE COAST WHERE DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO
BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER...HOWEVER CHANCES WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 20%. THE
DRY AIRMASS WILL AGAIN ALLOW LOW TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE MID 60S
INLAND TO MID 70S ALONG THE COAST. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL WARM A
DEGREE OR TWO OVER TODAY INTO THE LOW 90S WITH A FEW MID 90S
POSSIBLE INLAND. /13

[WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT]...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM NORTHWEST MEXICO ACROSS THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION TO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING. THIS RIDGE WILL SPLIT IN TWO PIECES...WITH THE EASTERN
PORTION EVOLVING INTO AN UPPER HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER THE SOUTHEAST
STATES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM. THE SURFACE RIDGE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL MAINTAIN A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 1.0 AND 1.6 INCHES.
THE INFLUENCE OF THESE TWO HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL KEEP THE AREA
RAIN-FREE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM 65 TO 72 DEGREES...EXCEPT FOR THE MID 70S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM 90 TO 95 DEGREES.
LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 68 TO 73 DEGREES
INLAND AREAS...AND FROM 74 TO 77 DEGREES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
/22

LONG TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]...THE UPPER TROF OVER THE
CENTRAL STATES SLOWLY EJECTS OFF ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES THROUGH
MONDAY AS UPPER RIDGING PERSISTS OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
STATES.  A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF STRENGTHENS SOMEWHAT
THROUGH THE PERIOD AND MAINTAINS A PREDOMINATELY SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER
THE FORECAST AREA...WITH ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE SPREADING NORTHWARD
INTO THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND REMAINS IN PLACE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.  WITH DAYTIME HIGHS ABOUT A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD AND GULF MOISTURE OVER THE REGION...EXPECT
THE SEA BREEZE AND DAYTIME HEATING TO SUPPORT CHANCE POPS FOR MOST
OF THE AREA EACH DAY.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. /29

MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE ACROSS THE MARINE
AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GULF. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD LATE IN THE WEEK...A
LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WIND FLOW RETURNS. /13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      72  93  72  93  73 /  05  20  05  05  05
PENSACOLA   74  92  75  92  76 /  10  20  05  05  05
DESTIN      76  90  75  90  77 /  10  10  05  05  05
EVERGREEN   65  94  67  95  68 /  05  05  05  05  05
WAYNESBORO  65  94  67  95  69 /  05  10  05  05  05
CAMDEN      65  94  67  95  68 /  05  00  05  05  05
CRESTVIEW   66  94  67  94  69 /  10  10  05  05  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA
     ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KMOB 262050
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
350 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON]...AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MEANWHILE A LINGERING SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC WILL
MAINTAIN AN EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL CONTINUE A MAINLY
DRY FORECAST WITH LOWER HUMIDITY LEVELS. A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH FROM
THE WESTERN GULF EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF MAY BE ENOUGH FOR
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM NEAR THE COAST WHERE DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO
BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER...HOWEVER CHANCES WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 20%. THE
DRY AIRMASS WILL AGAIN ALLOW LOW TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE MID 60S
INLAND TO MID 70S ALONG THE COAST. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL WARM A
DEGREE OR TWO OVER TODAY INTO THE LOW 90S WITH A FEW MID 90S
POSSIBLE INLAND. /13

[WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT]...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM NORTHWEST MEXICO ACROSS THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION TO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING. THIS RIDGE WILL SPLIT IN TWO PIECES...WITH THE EASTERN
PORTION EVOLVING INTO AN UPPER HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER THE SOUTHEAST
STATES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM. THE SURFACE RIDGE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL MAINTAIN A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 1.0 AND 1.6 INCHES.
THE INFLUENCE OF THESE TWO HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL KEEP THE AREA
RAIN-FREE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM 65 TO 72 DEGREES...EXCEPT FOR THE MID 70S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM 90 TO 95 DEGREES.
LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 68 TO 73 DEGREES
INLAND AREAS...AND FROM 74 TO 77 DEGREES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
/22

.LONG TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]...THE UPPER TROF OVER THE
CENTRAL STATES SLOWLY EJECTS OFF ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES THROUGH
MONDAY AS UPPER RIDGING PERSISTS OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
STATES.  A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF STRENGTHENS SOMEWHAT
THROUGH THE PERIOD AND MAINTAINS A PREDOMINATELY SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER
THE FORECAST AREA...WITH ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE SPREADING NORTHWARD
INTO THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND REMAINS IN PLACE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.  WITH DAYTIME HIGHS ABOUT A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD AND GULF MOISTURE OVER THE REGION...EXPECT
THE SEA BREEZE AND DAYTIME HEATING TO SUPPORT CHANCE POPS FOR MOST
OF THE AREA EACH DAY.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. /29

&&

.AVIATION [26.18Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF ISSUANCE]...VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. /13

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE ACROSS THE MARINE
AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GULF. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD LATE IN THE WEEK...A
LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WIND FLOW RETURNS. /13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      72  93  72  93  73 /  05  20  05  05  05
PENSACOLA   74  92  75  92  76 /  10  20  05  05  05
DESTIN      76  90  75  90  77 /  10  10  05  05  05
EVERGREEN   65  94  67  95  68 /  05  05  05  05  05
WAYNESBORO  65  94  67  95  69 /  05  10  05  05  05
CAMDEN      65  94  67  95  68 /  05  00  05  05  05
CRESTVIEW   66  94  67  94  69 /  10  10  05  05  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA
     ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMOB 262050
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
350 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON]...AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MEANWHILE A LINGERING SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC WILL
MAINTAIN AN EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL CONTINUE A MAINLY
DRY FORECAST WITH LOWER HUMIDITY LEVELS. A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH FROM
THE WESTERN GULF EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF MAY BE ENOUGH FOR
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM NEAR THE COAST WHERE DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO
BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER...HOWEVER CHANCES WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 20%. THE
DRY AIRMASS WILL AGAIN ALLOW LOW TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE MID 60S
INLAND TO MID 70S ALONG THE COAST. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL WARM A
DEGREE OR TWO OVER TODAY INTO THE LOW 90S WITH A FEW MID 90S
POSSIBLE INLAND. /13

[WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT]...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM NORTHWEST MEXICO ACROSS THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION TO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING. THIS RIDGE WILL SPLIT IN TWO PIECES...WITH THE EASTERN
PORTION EVOLVING INTO AN UPPER HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER THE SOUTHEAST
STATES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM. THE SURFACE RIDGE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL MAINTAIN A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 1.0 AND 1.6 INCHES.
THE INFLUENCE OF THESE TWO HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL KEEP THE AREA
RAIN-FREE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM 65 TO 72 DEGREES...EXCEPT FOR THE MID 70S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM 90 TO 95 DEGREES.
LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 68 TO 73 DEGREES
INLAND AREAS...AND FROM 74 TO 77 DEGREES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
/22

.LONG TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]...THE UPPER TROF OVER THE
CENTRAL STATES SLOWLY EJECTS OFF ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES THROUGH
MONDAY AS UPPER RIDGING PERSISTS OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
STATES.  A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF STRENGTHENS SOMEWHAT
THROUGH THE PERIOD AND MAINTAINS A PREDOMINATELY SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER
THE FORECAST AREA...WITH ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE SPREADING NORTHWARD
INTO THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND REMAINS IN PLACE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.  WITH DAYTIME HIGHS ABOUT A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD AND GULF MOISTURE OVER THE REGION...EXPECT
THE SEA BREEZE AND DAYTIME HEATING TO SUPPORT CHANCE POPS FOR MOST
OF THE AREA EACH DAY.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. /29

&&

.AVIATION [26.18Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF ISSUANCE]...VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. /13

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE ACROSS THE MARINE
AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GULF. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD LATE IN THE WEEK...A
LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WIND FLOW RETURNS. /13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      72  93  72  93  73 /  05  20  05  05  05
PENSACOLA   74  92  75  92  76 /  10  20  05  05  05
DESTIN      76  90  75  90  77 /  10  10  05  05  05
EVERGREEN   65  94  67  95  68 /  05  05  05  05  05
WAYNESBORO  65  94  67  95  69 /  05  10  05  05  05
CAMDEN      65  94  67  95  68 /  05  00  05  05  05
CRESTVIEW   66  94  67  94  69 /  10  10  05  05  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA
     ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







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