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000
FXUS64 KMOB 050546 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE TO AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
954 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

AVIATION...
06Z ISSUANCE...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING STRONG COLD FRONT...A VERY
MOIST AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR IFR CIG/VISBYS...WITH BANDS OF NE MOVING
RAIN BUMPING THE CIGS INTO LOWER MVFR LEVELS. WITH THE FRONT
EXPECTED TO REACH THE I65 CORRIDOR BY 12Z...STRONG NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH COASTAL AIRPORTS BEGINNING SHORTLY
AFTER. AIRPORTS OVER SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS WILL SEE THE WIND SHIFT
CLOSER TO 16Z-17Z. WITH THE STRONG NORTHERLY PUSH...COLD SURGE
STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST.

/16

&&

.UPDATE...JUST DID A QUICK UPDATE TO GRIDS AND ZONE FORECAST
PRODUCT. A PERSISTENT MESOSCALE LOLVL CONVERGENCE AREA HAS SET UP
OVER THE FCST AREA THIS EVENING WITH A THIN LINE OF SHOWERS TRAINING
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY. ADJUSTED RAIN
CHANCES UPWARD ALONG THIS AXIS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
EVENING...THEN STILL EXPECTING COVERAGE TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT AS THE FRONT BEGINS MOVING THROUGH THE
LOCAL FCST AREA. THE CURRENT SHOWERS ARE MOVING INLAND OFF THE GULF
INTO SOUTHERN MOBILE COUNTY AND CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN BALDWIN COUNTY AND FURTHER INLAND ALL THE WAY TO THE
EVERGREEN AREA (ALIGNED JUST TO THE WEST OF I-65). THE REMAINDER OF
THE FCST WAS IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE. DENSE FOG ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR
COASTAL ZONES...WHERE DENSE FOG IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER THE
COASTAL AREAS OF FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER
COASTAL ALABAMA AS WELL. OFFSHORE MARINE FOG CONTINUES AS WELL. ALL
NECESSARY PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED AND TRANSMITTED. 12/DS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015/

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY]...AS OF 3PM THE COLD FRONT IS
MOVING INTO FAR NW AL/NORTH CTRL MS/SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. THE BOUNDARY
WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY PROGRESS SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT
WITH THE FRONT MOVING INTO THE FAR NORTHWEST ZONES LIKELY JUST AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THE FRONT WILL APPROACH THE I-65 CORRIDOR SHORTLY BEFORE
OR NEAR DAYBREAK...AND WILL PUSH SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
BY MIDDAY THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP VERY QUICKLY BEHIND THE
FRONT (ON ORDER OF 20-30 DEGREES IN JUST AN HOUR OR TWO). THE EXACT
LOCATION OF THE FRONT WILL IMPACT LOW TEMPS. HOWEVER...LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S EAST OF I-65...WITH UPPER
30S/LOWER 40S OVER FAR INLAND SE MS/SW AL. WITH THE FRONT PASSING
THROUGH IN THE MORNING HOURS...HIGHS WILL BE REACHED VERY EARLY IN
THE DAY WITH TEMPS DROPPING THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE FRONT TONIGHT UNDER
A CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME. THE CHANCE FOR THUNDER LOOKS
LOW DUE TO A PERSISTENT MID LEVEL CAP AROUND 700 MB. MEANWHILE...A
BAND OF SHOWERS IS LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY THE ACTUALLY FRONT WITH
PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY. THE
SLOPE OF THE FRONT IS VERY SHALLOW...WITH THE 850 MB FRONT LOCATED
WELL TO THE NW OF THE SFC BOUNDARY. THEREFORE...THE BAND OF MORE
MODERATE RAIN IS LIKELY TO IMPACT THE FAR NW PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
850 MB FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE DROPPING INTO LOW TO MID 30S BY
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON ROUGHLY FROM WAYNESBORO AND BUTLER
NORTHWARD. THE CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE BRINGS THE WET BULB
FREEZING LINE INTO FAR NORTHERN CHOCTAW COUNTY DURING THIS
TIME...AND THIS WILL BE THE LOCATION THAT WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE
OF SEEING A PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN. FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...A
COLD RAIN IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED. WE WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR
TEMPS CLOSELY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. AT THIS POINT...WE DO NOT
PLAN TO ISSUE A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR CHOCTAW COUNTY AS
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH THAT THERE WILL BE ANY ICE ACCRUAL. WHILE
TEMPS NEAR FREEZING ARE POSSIBLE...THE COMBINATION OF VERY WARM
GROUND TEMPS (IT REACHED 80 TODAY) WITH THE GREATER INSOLATION
FACTOR OF THE MARCH SUN ANGLE WILL MAKE IT VERY HARD TO ACCRUE ICE
DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY.

AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...EXPECT AREAS OF DENSE FOG
TO REDEVELOP TONIGHT ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10 AND A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THOSE ZONES. PATCHY DENSE FOG IS
ALSO POSSIBLE FURTHER INLAND AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT CONFIDENCE IS
NOT AS HIGH. THE FOG WILL CLEAR WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

ONE LAST NOTE...IT WILL BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT ON THURSDAY WHICH WILL MAKE WIND CHILLS DROP INTO THE 20S/30S
OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WINDS CHILLS MAINLY IN THE 40S ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST. 34/JFB

THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WELL SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN
GULF AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FL PENINSULA THURSDAY NIGHT AS COLD
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ON THE ORDER OF 1039 MB BUILDS FROM NORTHEAST
TX INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI...TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS. DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD AND WILL
GENERALLY EXTEND FROM FAR SOUTHEAST MS AND SOUTHWEST AL THROUGH THE
NORTHWEST FL PANHANDLE DURING THE EVENING BEFORE MOSTLY PUSHING
OFFSHORE AND TO THE EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURE PROFILES REMAIN WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP A MENTION/SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST GENERALLY TO THE SOUTHEAST OF A
WIGGINS MS...MONROEVILLE AL....LUVERNE AL LINE THURSDAY EVENING
BEFORE ANY LINGERING LIGHT RAIN BECOMES FOCUSED OFFSHORE TO NEAR THE
IMMEDIATE NORTHWEST FL PANHANDLE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT. MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES ARE OTHERWISE EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING
FROM THE MID TO AROUND 30 OVER INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MS AND SOUTHWEST AL
TO THE MID TO UPPER 30S NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST REGION FRIDAY UNDERNEATH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...AND WE WILL
CONTINUE A DRY FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION. A GRADUAL DECREASE IN
CLOUD COVER IS ALSO EXPECTED. A BROAD COOL SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE VICINITY OF SOUTH AND EAST TX TO THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION FRIDAY. HIGHS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON SHOULD CONTINUE TO AVERAGE WELL BELOW NORMAL...WITH
READINGS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S INLAND TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S
NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. /21

LONG TERM [SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...DRY ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AND EXPECT SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES.
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
SUNDAY...AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AND SPREAD ACROSS
SOUTH TX...THE NORTHWESTERN GULF AND NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST REGION AHEAD OF THIS NEXT FEATURE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MONDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO BRING RAIN CHANCES UPWARD INTO THE 30-40
PERCENT CHANCE RANGE ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. A
WET WEATHER PATTERN MAY CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK
AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS...THOUGH MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE DOES
HAVE SOME DISAGREEMENT ON TIMING OF THE NEXT WAVE OF DEEP MOISTURE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. WE LEFT A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND
UPWARD TOWARD NORMAL VALUES EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. /21

&&

MARINE...AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE NEAR SHORE
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. WHILE CONDITIONS HAVE
IMPROVED SOME THIS AFTERNOON...DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY
REDEVELOP AFTER SUNSET. OTHERWISE...A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL PERSIST TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING WITH
A STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM 10AM THURSDAY UNTIL 10AM FRIDAY.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE NORTH. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS TO IMPACT
THE MARINE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF AND TRACKS NORTHEAST. THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE
LOW IS STILL UNCERTAIN. 34/JFB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      58  60  30  52  34 /  50  60  20  10  05
PENSACOLA   64  65  37  54  38 /  40  60  20  10  05
DESTIN      63  65  39  54  44 /  40  50  30  20  10
EVERGREEN   58  60  32  52  32 /  50  60  20  10  05
WAYNESBORO  42  44  25  48  27 /  60  70  10  05  05
CAMDEN      47  49  27  50  32 /  60  70  10  05  05
CRESTVIEW   64  66  36  56  36 /  50  60  20  10  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THURSDAY FOR ALZ063-064.

FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THURSDAY FOR FLZ002-004-006.

MS...NONE.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THURSDAY FOR GMZ630>635-650-
     655.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THURSDAY TO 10 AM CST FRIDAY FOR
     GMZ630>635-650-655-670-675.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMOB 050546 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE TO AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
954 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

AVIATION...
06Z ISSUANCE...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING STRONG COLD FRONT...A VERY
MOIST AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR IFR CIG/VISBYS...WITH BANDS OF NE MOVING
RAIN BUMPING THE CIGS INTO LOWER MVFR LEVELS. WITH THE FRONT
EXPECTED TO REACH THE I65 CORRIDOR BY 12Z...STRONG NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH COASTAL AIRPORTS BEGINNING SHORTLY
AFTER. AIRPORTS OVER SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS WILL SEE THE WIND SHIFT
CLOSER TO 16Z-17Z. WITH THE STRONG NORTHERLY PUSH...COLD SURGE
STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST.

/16

&&

.UPDATE...JUST DID A QUICK UPDATE TO GRIDS AND ZONE FORECAST
PRODUCT. A PERSISTENT MESOSCALE LOLVL CONVERGENCE AREA HAS SET UP
OVER THE FCST AREA THIS EVENING WITH A THIN LINE OF SHOWERS TRAINING
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY. ADJUSTED RAIN
CHANCES UPWARD ALONG THIS AXIS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
EVENING...THEN STILL EXPECTING COVERAGE TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT AS THE FRONT BEGINS MOVING THROUGH THE
LOCAL FCST AREA. THE CURRENT SHOWERS ARE MOVING INLAND OFF THE GULF
INTO SOUTHERN MOBILE COUNTY AND CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN BALDWIN COUNTY AND FURTHER INLAND ALL THE WAY TO THE
EVERGREEN AREA (ALIGNED JUST TO THE WEST OF I-65). THE REMAINDER OF
THE FCST WAS IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE. DENSE FOG ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR
COASTAL ZONES...WHERE DENSE FOG IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER THE
COASTAL AREAS OF FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER
COASTAL ALABAMA AS WELL. OFFSHORE MARINE FOG CONTINUES AS WELL. ALL
NECESSARY PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED AND TRANSMITTED. 12/DS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015/

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY]...AS OF 3PM THE COLD FRONT IS
MOVING INTO FAR NW AL/NORTH CTRL MS/SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. THE BOUNDARY
WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY PROGRESS SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT
WITH THE FRONT MOVING INTO THE FAR NORTHWEST ZONES LIKELY JUST AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THE FRONT WILL APPROACH THE I-65 CORRIDOR SHORTLY BEFORE
OR NEAR DAYBREAK...AND WILL PUSH SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
BY MIDDAY THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP VERY QUICKLY BEHIND THE
FRONT (ON ORDER OF 20-30 DEGREES IN JUST AN HOUR OR TWO). THE EXACT
LOCATION OF THE FRONT WILL IMPACT LOW TEMPS. HOWEVER...LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S EAST OF I-65...WITH UPPER
30S/LOWER 40S OVER FAR INLAND SE MS/SW AL. WITH THE FRONT PASSING
THROUGH IN THE MORNING HOURS...HIGHS WILL BE REACHED VERY EARLY IN
THE DAY WITH TEMPS DROPPING THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE FRONT TONIGHT UNDER
A CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME. THE CHANCE FOR THUNDER LOOKS
LOW DUE TO A PERSISTENT MID LEVEL CAP AROUND 700 MB. MEANWHILE...A
BAND OF SHOWERS IS LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY THE ACTUALLY FRONT WITH
PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY. THE
SLOPE OF THE FRONT IS VERY SHALLOW...WITH THE 850 MB FRONT LOCATED
WELL TO THE NW OF THE SFC BOUNDARY. THEREFORE...THE BAND OF MORE
MODERATE RAIN IS LIKELY TO IMPACT THE FAR NW PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
850 MB FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE DROPPING INTO LOW TO MID 30S BY
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON ROUGHLY FROM WAYNESBORO AND BUTLER
NORTHWARD. THE CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE BRINGS THE WET BULB
FREEZING LINE INTO FAR NORTHERN CHOCTAW COUNTY DURING THIS
TIME...AND THIS WILL BE THE LOCATION THAT WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE
OF SEEING A PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN. FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...A
COLD RAIN IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED. WE WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR
TEMPS CLOSELY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. AT THIS POINT...WE DO NOT
PLAN TO ISSUE A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR CHOCTAW COUNTY AS
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH THAT THERE WILL BE ANY ICE ACCRUAL. WHILE
TEMPS NEAR FREEZING ARE POSSIBLE...THE COMBINATION OF VERY WARM
GROUND TEMPS (IT REACHED 80 TODAY) WITH THE GREATER INSOLATION
FACTOR OF THE MARCH SUN ANGLE WILL MAKE IT VERY HARD TO ACCRUE ICE
DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY.

AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...EXPECT AREAS OF DENSE FOG
TO REDEVELOP TONIGHT ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10 AND A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THOSE ZONES. PATCHY DENSE FOG IS
ALSO POSSIBLE FURTHER INLAND AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT CONFIDENCE IS
NOT AS HIGH. THE FOG WILL CLEAR WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

ONE LAST NOTE...IT WILL BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT ON THURSDAY WHICH WILL MAKE WIND CHILLS DROP INTO THE 20S/30S
OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WINDS CHILLS MAINLY IN THE 40S ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST. 34/JFB

THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WELL SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN
GULF AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FL PENINSULA THURSDAY NIGHT AS COLD
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ON THE ORDER OF 1039 MB BUILDS FROM NORTHEAST
TX INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI...TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS. DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD AND WILL
GENERALLY EXTEND FROM FAR SOUTHEAST MS AND SOUTHWEST AL THROUGH THE
NORTHWEST FL PANHANDLE DURING THE EVENING BEFORE MOSTLY PUSHING
OFFSHORE AND TO THE EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURE PROFILES REMAIN WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP A MENTION/SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST GENERALLY TO THE SOUTHEAST OF A
WIGGINS MS...MONROEVILLE AL....LUVERNE AL LINE THURSDAY EVENING
BEFORE ANY LINGERING LIGHT RAIN BECOMES FOCUSED OFFSHORE TO NEAR THE
IMMEDIATE NORTHWEST FL PANHANDLE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT. MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES ARE OTHERWISE EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING
FROM THE MID TO AROUND 30 OVER INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MS AND SOUTHWEST AL
TO THE MID TO UPPER 30S NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST REGION FRIDAY UNDERNEATH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...AND WE WILL
CONTINUE A DRY FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION. A GRADUAL DECREASE IN
CLOUD COVER IS ALSO EXPECTED. A BROAD COOL SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE VICINITY OF SOUTH AND EAST TX TO THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION FRIDAY. HIGHS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON SHOULD CONTINUE TO AVERAGE WELL BELOW NORMAL...WITH
READINGS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S INLAND TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S
NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. /21

LONG TERM [SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...DRY ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AND EXPECT SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES.
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
SUNDAY...AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AND SPREAD ACROSS
SOUTH TX...THE NORTHWESTERN GULF AND NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST REGION AHEAD OF THIS NEXT FEATURE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MONDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO BRING RAIN CHANCES UPWARD INTO THE 30-40
PERCENT CHANCE RANGE ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. A
WET WEATHER PATTERN MAY CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK
AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS...THOUGH MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE DOES
HAVE SOME DISAGREEMENT ON TIMING OF THE NEXT WAVE OF DEEP MOISTURE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. WE LEFT A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND
UPWARD TOWARD NORMAL VALUES EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. /21

&&

MARINE...AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE NEAR SHORE
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. WHILE CONDITIONS HAVE
IMPROVED SOME THIS AFTERNOON...DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY
REDEVELOP AFTER SUNSET. OTHERWISE...A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL PERSIST TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING WITH
A STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM 10AM THURSDAY UNTIL 10AM FRIDAY.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE NORTH. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS TO IMPACT
THE MARINE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF AND TRACKS NORTHEAST. THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE
LOW IS STILL UNCERTAIN. 34/JFB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      58  60  30  52  34 /  50  60  20  10  05
PENSACOLA   64  65  37  54  38 /  40  60  20  10  05
DESTIN      63  65  39  54  44 /  40  50  30  20  10
EVERGREEN   58  60  32  52  32 /  50  60  20  10  05
WAYNESBORO  42  44  25  48  27 /  60  70  10  05  05
CAMDEN      47  49  27  50  32 /  60  70  10  05  05
CRESTVIEW   64  66  36  56  36 /  50  60  20  10  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THURSDAY FOR ALZ063-064.

FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THURSDAY FOR FLZ002-004-006.

MS...NONE.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THURSDAY FOR GMZ630>635-650-
     655.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THURSDAY TO 10 AM CST FRIDAY FOR
     GMZ630>635-650-655-670-675.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 050546 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE TO AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
954 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

AVIATION...
06Z ISSUANCE...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING STRONG COLD FRONT...A VERY
MOIST AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR IFR CIG/VISBYS...WITH BANDS OF NE MOVING
RAIN BUMPING THE CIGS INTO LOWER MVFR LEVELS. WITH THE FRONT
EXPECTED TO REACH THE I65 CORRIDOR BY 12Z...STRONG NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH COASTAL AIRPORTS BEGINNING SHORTLY
AFTER. AIRPORTS OVER SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS WILL SEE THE WIND SHIFT
CLOSER TO 16Z-17Z. WITH THE STRONG NORTHERLY PUSH...COLD SURGE
STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST.

/16

&&

.UPDATE...JUST DID A QUICK UPDATE TO GRIDS AND ZONE FORECAST
PRODUCT. A PERSISTENT MESOSCALE LOLVL CONVERGENCE AREA HAS SET UP
OVER THE FCST AREA THIS EVENING WITH A THIN LINE OF SHOWERS TRAINING
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY. ADJUSTED RAIN
CHANCES UPWARD ALONG THIS AXIS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
EVENING...THEN STILL EXPECTING COVERAGE TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT AS THE FRONT BEGINS MOVING THROUGH THE
LOCAL FCST AREA. THE CURRENT SHOWERS ARE MOVING INLAND OFF THE GULF
INTO SOUTHERN MOBILE COUNTY AND CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN BALDWIN COUNTY AND FURTHER INLAND ALL THE WAY TO THE
EVERGREEN AREA (ALIGNED JUST TO THE WEST OF I-65). THE REMAINDER OF
THE FCST WAS IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE. DENSE FOG ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR
COASTAL ZONES...WHERE DENSE FOG IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER THE
COASTAL AREAS OF FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER
COASTAL ALABAMA AS WELL. OFFSHORE MARINE FOG CONTINUES AS WELL. ALL
NECESSARY PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED AND TRANSMITTED. 12/DS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015/

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY]...AS OF 3PM THE COLD FRONT IS
MOVING INTO FAR NW AL/NORTH CTRL MS/SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. THE BOUNDARY
WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY PROGRESS SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT
WITH THE FRONT MOVING INTO THE FAR NORTHWEST ZONES LIKELY JUST AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THE FRONT WILL APPROACH THE I-65 CORRIDOR SHORTLY BEFORE
OR NEAR DAYBREAK...AND WILL PUSH SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
BY MIDDAY THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP VERY QUICKLY BEHIND THE
FRONT (ON ORDER OF 20-30 DEGREES IN JUST AN HOUR OR TWO). THE EXACT
LOCATION OF THE FRONT WILL IMPACT LOW TEMPS. HOWEVER...LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S EAST OF I-65...WITH UPPER
30S/LOWER 40S OVER FAR INLAND SE MS/SW AL. WITH THE FRONT PASSING
THROUGH IN THE MORNING HOURS...HIGHS WILL BE REACHED VERY EARLY IN
THE DAY WITH TEMPS DROPPING THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE FRONT TONIGHT UNDER
A CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME. THE CHANCE FOR THUNDER LOOKS
LOW DUE TO A PERSISTENT MID LEVEL CAP AROUND 700 MB. MEANWHILE...A
BAND OF SHOWERS IS LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY THE ACTUALLY FRONT WITH
PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY. THE
SLOPE OF THE FRONT IS VERY SHALLOW...WITH THE 850 MB FRONT LOCATED
WELL TO THE NW OF THE SFC BOUNDARY. THEREFORE...THE BAND OF MORE
MODERATE RAIN IS LIKELY TO IMPACT THE FAR NW PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
850 MB FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE DROPPING INTO LOW TO MID 30S BY
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON ROUGHLY FROM WAYNESBORO AND BUTLER
NORTHWARD. THE CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE BRINGS THE WET BULB
FREEZING LINE INTO FAR NORTHERN CHOCTAW COUNTY DURING THIS
TIME...AND THIS WILL BE THE LOCATION THAT WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE
OF SEEING A PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN. FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...A
COLD RAIN IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED. WE WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR
TEMPS CLOSELY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. AT THIS POINT...WE DO NOT
PLAN TO ISSUE A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR CHOCTAW COUNTY AS
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH THAT THERE WILL BE ANY ICE ACCRUAL. WHILE
TEMPS NEAR FREEZING ARE POSSIBLE...THE COMBINATION OF VERY WARM
GROUND TEMPS (IT REACHED 80 TODAY) WITH THE GREATER INSOLATION
FACTOR OF THE MARCH SUN ANGLE WILL MAKE IT VERY HARD TO ACCRUE ICE
DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY.

AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...EXPECT AREAS OF DENSE FOG
TO REDEVELOP TONIGHT ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10 AND A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THOSE ZONES. PATCHY DENSE FOG IS
ALSO POSSIBLE FURTHER INLAND AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT CONFIDENCE IS
NOT AS HIGH. THE FOG WILL CLEAR WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

ONE LAST NOTE...IT WILL BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT ON THURSDAY WHICH WILL MAKE WIND CHILLS DROP INTO THE 20S/30S
OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WINDS CHILLS MAINLY IN THE 40S ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST. 34/JFB

THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WELL SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN
GULF AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FL PENINSULA THURSDAY NIGHT AS COLD
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ON THE ORDER OF 1039 MB BUILDS FROM NORTHEAST
TX INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI...TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS. DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD AND WILL
GENERALLY EXTEND FROM FAR SOUTHEAST MS AND SOUTHWEST AL THROUGH THE
NORTHWEST FL PANHANDLE DURING THE EVENING BEFORE MOSTLY PUSHING
OFFSHORE AND TO THE EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURE PROFILES REMAIN WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP A MENTION/SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST GENERALLY TO THE SOUTHEAST OF A
WIGGINS MS...MONROEVILLE AL....LUVERNE AL LINE THURSDAY EVENING
BEFORE ANY LINGERING LIGHT RAIN BECOMES FOCUSED OFFSHORE TO NEAR THE
IMMEDIATE NORTHWEST FL PANHANDLE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT. MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES ARE OTHERWISE EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING
FROM THE MID TO AROUND 30 OVER INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MS AND SOUTHWEST AL
TO THE MID TO UPPER 30S NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST REGION FRIDAY UNDERNEATH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...AND WE WILL
CONTINUE A DRY FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION. A GRADUAL DECREASE IN
CLOUD COVER IS ALSO EXPECTED. A BROAD COOL SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE VICINITY OF SOUTH AND EAST TX TO THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION FRIDAY. HIGHS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON SHOULD CONTINUE TO AVERAGE WELL BELOW NORMAL...WITH
READINGS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S INLAND TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S
NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. /21

LONG TERM [SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...DRY ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AND EXPECT SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES.
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
SUNDAY...AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AND SPREAD ACROSS
SOUTH TX...THE NORTHWESTERN GULF AND NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST REGION AHEAD OF THIS NEXT FEATURE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MONDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO BRING RAIN CHANCES UPWARD INTO THE 30-40
PERCENT CHANCE RANGE ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. A
WET WEATHER PATTERN MAY CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK
AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS...THOUGH MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE DOES
HAVE SOME DISAGREEMENT ON TIMING OF THE NEXT WAVE OF DEEP MOISTURE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. WE LEFT A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND
UPWARD TOWARD NORMAL VALUES EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. /21

&&

MARINE...AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE NEAR SHORE
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. WHILE CONDITIONS HAVE
IMPROVED SOME THIS AFTERNOON...DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY
REDEVELOP AFTER SUNSET. OTHERWISE...A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL PERSIST TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING WITH
A STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM 10AM THURSDAY UNTIL 10AM FRIDAY.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE NORTH. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS TO IMPACT
THE MARINE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF AND TRACKS NORTHEAST. THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE
LOW IS STILL UNCERTAIN. 34/JFB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      58  60  30  52  34 /  50  60  20  10  05
PENSACOLA   64  65  37  54  38 /  40  60  20  10  05
DESTIN      63  65  39  54  44 /  40  50  30  20  10
EVERGREEN   58  60  32  52  32 /  50  60  20  10  05
WAYNESBORO  42  44  25  48  27 /  60  70  10  05  05
CAMDEN      47  49  27  50  32 /  60  70  10  05  05
CRESTVIEW   64  66  36  56  36 /  50  60  20  10  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THURSDAY FOR ALZ063-064.

FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THURSDAY FOR FLZ002-004-006.

MS...NONE.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THURSDAY FOR GMZ630>635-650-
     655.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THURSDAY TO 10 AM CST FRIDAY FOR
     GMZ630>635-650-655-670-675.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMOB 050546 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE TO AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
954 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

AVIATION...
06Z ISSUANCE...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING STRONG COLD FRONT...A VERY
MOIST AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR IFR CIG/VISBYS...WITH BANDS OF NE MOVING
RAIN BUMPING THE CIGS INTO LOWER MVFR LEVELS. WITH THE FRONT
EXPECTED TO REACH THE I65 CORRIDOR BY 12Z...STRONG NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH COASTAL AIRPORTS BEGINNING SHORTLY
AFTER. AIRPORTS OVER SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS WILL SEE THE WIND SHIFT
CLOSER TO 16Z-17Z. WITH THE STRONG NORTHERLY PUSH...COLD SURGE
STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST.

/16

&&

.UPDATE...JUST DID A QUICK UPDATE TO GRIDS AND ZONE FORECAST
PRODUCT. A PERSISTENT MESOSCALE LOLVL CONVERGENCE AREA HAS SET UP
OVER THE FCST AREA THIS EVENING WITH A THIN LINE OF SHOWERS TRAINING
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY. ADJUSTED RAIN
CHANCES UPWARD ALONG THIS AXIS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
EVENING...THEN STILL EXPECTING COVERAGE TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT AS THE FRONT BEGINS MOVING THROUGH THE
LOCAL FCST AREA. THE CURRENT SHOWERS ARE MOVING INLAND OFF THE GULF
INTO SOUTHERN MOBILE COUNTY AND CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN BALDWIN COUNTY AND FURTHER INLAND ALL THE WAY TO THE
EVERGREEN AREA (ALIGNED JUST TO THE WEST OF I-65). THE REMAINDER OF
THE FCST WAS IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE. DENSE FOG ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR
COASTAL ZONES...WHERE DENSE FOG IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER THE
COASTAL AREAS OF FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER
COASTAL ALABAMA AS WELL. OFFSHORE MARINE FOG CONTINUES AS WELL. ALL
NECESSARY PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED AND TRANSMITTED. 12/DS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015/

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY]...AS OF 3PM THE COLD FRONT IS
MOVING INTO FAR NW AL/NORTH CTRL MS/SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. THE BOUNDARY
WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY PROGRESS SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT
WITH THE FRONT MOVING INTO THE FAR NORTHWEST ZONES LIKELY JUST AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THE FRONT WILL APPROACH THE I-65 CORRIDOR SHORTLY BEFORE
OR NEAR DAYBREAK...AND WILL PUSH SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
BY MIDDAY THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP VERY QUICKLY BEHIND THE
FRONT (ON ORDER OF 20-30 DEGREES IN JUST AN HOUR OR TWO). THE EXACT
LOCATION OF THE FRONT WILL IMPACT LOW TEMPS. HOWEVER...LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S EAST OF I-65...WITH UPPER
30S/LOWER 40S OVER FAR INLAND SE MS/SW AL. WITH THE FRONT PASSING
THROUGH IN THE MORNING HOURS...HIGHS WILL BE REACHED VERY EARLY IN
THE DAY WITH TEMPS DROPPING THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE FRONT TONIGHT UNDER
A CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME. THE CHANCE FOR THUNDER LOOKS
LOW DUE TO A PERSISTENT MID LEVEL CAP AROUND 700 MB. MEANWHILE...A
BAND OF SHOWERS IS LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY THE ACTUALLY FRONT WITH
PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY. THE
SLOPE OF THE FRONT IS VERY SHALLOW...WITH THE 850 MB FRONT LOCATED
WELL TO THE NW OF THE SFC BOUNDARY. THEREFORE...THE BAND OF MORE
MODERATE RAIN IS LIKELY TO IMPACT THE FAR NW PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
850 MB FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE DROPPING INTO LOW TO MID 30S BY
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON ROUGHLY FROM WAYNESBORO AND BUTLER
NORTHWARD. THE CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE BRINGS THE WET BULB
FREEZING LINE INTO FAR NORTHERN CHOCTAW COUNTY DURING THIS
TIME...AND THIS WILL BE THE LOCATION THAT WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE
OF SEEING A PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN. FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...A
COLD RAIN IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED. WE WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR
TEMPS CLOSELY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. AT THIS POINT...WE DO NOT
PLAN TO ISSUE A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR CHOCTAW COUNTY AS
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH THAT THERE WILL BE ANY ICE ACCRUAL. WHILE
TEMPS NEAR FREEZING ARE POSSIBLE...THE COMBINATION OF VERY WARM
GROUND TEMPS (IT REACHED 80 TODAY) WITH THE GREATER INSOLATION
FACTOR OF THE MARCH SUN ANGLE WILL MAKE IT VERY HARD TO ACCRUE ICE
DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY.

AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...EXPECT AREAS OF DENSE FOG
TO REDEVELOP TONIGHT ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10 AND A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THOSE ZONES. PATCHY DENSE FOG IS
ALSO POSSIBLE FURTHER INLAND AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT CONFIDENCE IS
NOT AS HIGH. THE FOG WILL CLEAR WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

ONE LAST NOTE...IT WILL BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT ON THURSDAY WHICH WILL MAKE WIND CHILLS DROP INTO THE 20S/30S
OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WINDS CHILLS MAINLY IN THE 40S ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST. 34/JFB

THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WELL SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN
GULF AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FL PENINSULA THURSDAY NIGHT AS COLD
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ON THE ORDER OF 1039 MB BUILDS FROM NORTHEAST
TX INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI...TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS. DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD AND WILL
GENERALLY EXTEND FROM FAR SOUTHEAST MS AND SOUTHWEST AL THROUGH THE
NORTHWEST FL PANHANDLE DURING THE EVENING BEFORE MOSTLY PUSHING
OFFSHORE AND TO THE EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURE PROFILES REMAIN WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP A MENTION/SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST GENERALLY TO THE SOUTHEAST OF A
WIGGINS MS...MONROEVILLE AL....LUVERNE AL LINE THURSDAY EVENING
BEFORE ANY LINGERING LIGHT RAIN BECOMES FOCUSED OFFSHORE TO NEAR THE
IMMEDIATE NORTHWEST FL PANHANDLE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT. MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES ARE OTHERWISE EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING
FROM THE MID TO AROUND 30 OVER INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MS AND SOUTHWEST AL
TO THE MID TO UPPER 30S NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST REGION FRIDAY UNDERNEATH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...AND WE WILL
CONTINUE A DRY FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION. A GRADUAL DECREASE IN
CLOUD COVER IS ALSO EXPECTED. A BROAD COOL SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE VICINITY OF SOUTH AND EAST TX TO THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION FRIDAY. HIGHS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON SHOULD CONTINUE TO AVERAGE WELL BELOW NORMAL...WITH
READINGS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S INLAND TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S
NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. /21

LONG TERM [SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...DRY ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AND EXPECT SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES.
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
SUNDAY...AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AND SPREAD ACROSS
SOUTH TX...THE NORTHWESTERN GULF AND NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST REGION AHEAD OF THIS NEXT FEATURE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MONDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO BRING RAIN CHANCES UPWARD INTO THE 30-40
PERCENT CHANCE RANGE ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. A
WET WEATHER PATTERN MAY CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK
AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS...THOUGH MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE DOES
HAVE SOME DISAGREEMENT ON TIMING OF THE NEXT WAVE OF DEEP MOISTURE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. WE LEFT A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND
UPWARD TOWARD NORMAL VALUES EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. /21

&&

MARINE...AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE NEAR SHORE
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. WHILE CONDITIONS HAVE
IMPROVED SOME THIS AFTERNOON...DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY
REDEVELOP AFTER SUNSET. OTHERWISE...A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL PERSIST TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING WITH
A STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM 10AM THURSDAY UNTIL 10AM FRIDAY.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE NORTH. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS TO IMPACT
THE MARINE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF AND TRACKS NORTHEAST. THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE
LOW IS STILL UNCERTAIN. 34/JFB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      58  60  30  52  34 /  50  60  20  10  05
PENSACOLA   64  65  37  54  38 /  40  60  20  10  05
DESTIN      63  65  39  54  44 /  40  50  30  20  10
EVERGREEN   58  60  32  52  32 /  50  60  20  10  05
WAYNESBORO  42  44  25  48  27 /  60  70  10  05  05
CAMDEN      47  49  27  50  32 /  60  70  10  05  05
CRESTVIEW   64  66  36  56  36 /  50  60  20  10  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THURSDAY FOR ALZ063-064.

FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THURSDAY FOR FLZ002-004-006.

MS...NONE.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THURSDAY FOR GMZ630>635-650-
     655.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THURSDAY TO 10 AM CST FRIDAY FOR
     GMZ630>635-650-655-670-675.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 050405
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
954 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...JUST DID A QUICK UPDATE TO GRIDS AND ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT.
A PERSISTENT MESOSCALE LOLVL CONVERGENCE AREA HAS SET UP OVER THE
FCST AREA THIS EVENING WITH A THIN LINE OF SHOWERS TRAINING FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY. ADJUSTED RAIN CHANCES
UPWARD ALONG THIS AXIS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING...THEN STILL
EXPECTING COVERAGE TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD FROM THE WEST LATE
TONIGHT AS THE FRONT BEGINS MOVING THROUGH THE LOCAL FCST AREA. THE
CURRENT SHOWERS ARE MOVING INLAND OFF THE GULF INTO SOUTHERN MOBILE
COUNTY AND CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN BALDWIN COUNTY AND
FURTHER INLAND ALL THE WAY TO THE EVERGREEN AREA (ALIGNED JUST TO
THE WEST OF I-65). THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST WAS IN PRETTY GOOD
SHAPE. DENSE FOG ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR COASTAL ZONES...WHERE DENSE
FOG IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL AREAS OF FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER COASTAL ALABAMA AS WELL.
OFFSHORE MARINE FOG CONTINUES AS WELL. ALL NECESSARY PRODUCTS HAVE
BEEN UPDATED AND TRANSMITTED. 12/DS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015/

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY]...AS OF 3PM THE COLD FRONT IS
MOVING INTO FAR NW AL/NORTH CTRL MS/SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. THE BOUNDARY
WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY PROGRESS SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT
WITH THE FRONT MOVING INTO THE FAR NORTHWEST ZONES LIKELY JUST AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THE FRONT WILL APPROACH THE I-65 CORRIDOR SHORTLY BEFORE
OR NEAR DAYBREAK...AND WILL PUSH SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
BY MIDDAY THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP VERY QUICKLY BEHIND THE
FRONT (ON ORDER OF 20-30 DEGREES IN JUST AN HOUR OR TWO). THE EXACT
LOCATION OF THE FRONT WILL IMPACT LOW TEMPS. HOWEVER...LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S EAST OF I-65...WITH UPPER
30S/LOWER 40S OVER FAR INLAND SE MS/SW AL. WITH THE FRONT PASSING
THROUGH IN THE MORNING HOURS...HIGHS WILL BE REACHED VERY EARLY IN
THE DAY WITH TEMPS DROPPING THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE FRONT TONIGHT UNDER
A CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME. THE CHANCE FOR THUNDER LOOKS
LOW DUE TO A PERSISTENT MID LEVEL CAP AROUND 700 MB. MEANWHILE...A
BAND OF SHOWERS IS LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY THE ACTUALLY FRONT WITH
PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY. THE
SLOPE OF THE FRONT IS VERY SHALLOW...WITH THE 850 MB FRONT LOCATED
WELL TO THE NW OF THE SFC BOUNDARY. THEREFORE...THE BAND OF MORE
MODERATE RAIN IS LIKELY TO IMPACT THE FAR NW PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
850 MB FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE DROPPING INTO LOW TO MID 30S BY
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON ROUGHLY FROM WAYNESBORO AND BUTLER
NORTHWARD. THE CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE BRINGS THE WET BULB
FREEZING LINE INTO FAR NORTHERN CHOCTAW COUNTY DURING THIS
TIME...AND THIS WILL BE THE LOCATION THAT WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE
OF SEEING A PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN. FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...A
COLD RAIN IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED. WE WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR
TEMPS CLOSELY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. AT THIS POINT...WE DO NOT
PLAN TO ISSUE A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR CHOCTAW COUNTY AS
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH THAT THERE WILL BE ANY ICE ACCRUAL. WHILE
TEMPS NEAR FREEZING ARE POSSIBLE...THE COMBINATION OF VERY WARM
GROUND TEMPS (IT REACHED 80 TODAY) WITH THE GREATER INSOLATION
FACTOR OF THE MARCH SUN ANGLE WILL MAKE IT VERY HARD TO ACCRUE ICE
DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY.

AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...EXPECT AREAS OF DENSE FOG
TO REDEVELOP TONIGHT ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10 AND A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THOSE ZONES. PATCHY DENSE FOG IS
ALSO POSSIBLE FURTHER INLAND AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT CONFIDENCE IS
NOT AS HIGH. THE FOG WILL CLEAR WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

ONE LAST NOTE...IT WILL BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT ON THURSDAY WHICH WILL MAKE WIND CHILLS DROP INTO THE 20S/30S
OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WINDS CHILLS MAINLY IN THE 40S ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST. 34/JFB

THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WELL SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN
GULF AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FL PENINSULA THURSDAY NIGHT AS COLD
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ON THE ORDER OF 1039 MB BUILDS FROM NORTHEAST
TX INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI...TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS. DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD AND WILL
GENERALLY EXTEND FROM FAR SOUTHEAST MS AND SOUTHWEST AL THROUGH THE
NORTHWEST FL PANHANDLE DURING THE EVENING BEFORE MOSTLY PUSHING
OFFSHORE AND TO THE EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURE PROFILES REMAIN WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP A MENTION/SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST GENERALLY TO THE SOUTHEAST OF A
WIGGINS MS...MONROEVILLE AL....LUVERNE AL LINE THURSDAY EVENING
BEFORE ANY LINGERING LIGHT RAIN BECOMES FOCUSED OFFSHORE TO NEAR THE
IMMEDIATE NORTHWEST FL PANHANDLE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT. MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES ARE OTHERWISE EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING
FROM THE MID TO AROUND 30 OVER INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MS AND SOUTHWEST AL
TO THE MID TO UPPER 30S NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST REGION FRIDAY UNDERNEATH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...AND WE WILL
CONTINUE A DRY FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION. A GRADUAL DECREASE IN
CLOUD COVER IS ALSO EXPECTED. A BROAD COOL SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE VICINITY OF SOUTH AND EAST TX TO THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION FRIDAY. HIGHS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON SHOULD CONTINUE TO AVERAGE WELL BELOW NORMAL...WITH
READINGS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S INLAND TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S
NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. /21

LONG TERM [SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...DRY ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AND EXPECT SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES.
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
SUNDAY...AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AND SPREAD ACROSS
SOUTH TX...THE NORTHWESTERN GULF AND NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST REGION AHEAD OF THIS NEXT FEATURE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MONDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO BRING RAIN CHANCES UPWARD INTO THE 30-40
PERCENT CHANCE RANGE ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. A
WET WEATHER PATTERN MAY CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK
AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS...THOUGH MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE DOES
HAVE SOME DISAGREEMENT ON TIMING OF THE NEXT WAVE OF DEEP MOISTURE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. WE LEFT A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND
UPWARD TOWARD NORMAL VALUES EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. /21

AVIATION...
18Z ISSUANCE...
DAYTIME HEATING HAS RESULTED IN STRONG MIXING AND A LIFTING OF CIGS
TO MVFR OR VFR LEVELS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. IFR/LIFR CIGS/VSBYS
WILL BE PREDOMINATE ALONG COASTAL AL/NW FL TONIGHT UNDER A CONTINUED
WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
AREA OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE AT THE
TAF SITES EXPECTED TO BE AROUND THE 15-16Z TIME FRAME. HOWEVER...IFR
TO LIFR CIGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN. 34/JFB

MARINE...AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE NEAR SHORE
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. WHILE CONDITIONS HAVE
IMPROVED SOME THIS AFTERNOON...DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY
REDEVELOP AFTER SUNSET. OTHERWISE...A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL PERSIST TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING WITH
A STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM 10AM THURSDAY UNTIL 10AM FRIDAY.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE NORTH. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS TO IMPACT
THE MARINE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF AND TRACKS NORTHEAST. THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE
LOW IS STILL UNCERTAIN. 34/JFB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      58  60  30  52  34 /  50  60  20  10  05
PENSACOLA   64  65  37  54  38 /  40  60  20  10  05
DESTIN      63  65  39  54  44 /  40  50  30  20  10
EVERGREEN   58  60  32  52  32 /  50  60  20  10  05
WAYNESBORO  42  44  25  48  27 /  60  70  10  05  05
CAMDEN      47  49  27  50  32 /  60  70  10  05  05
CRESTVIEW   64  66  36  56  36 /  50  60  20  10  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THURSDAY FOR ALZ063-064.

FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THURSDAY FOR FLZ002-004-006.

MS...NONE.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THURSDAY FOR GMZ630>635-650-
     655.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THURSDAY TO 10 AM CST FRIDAY FOR
     GMZ630>635-650-655-670-675.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMOB 050405
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
954 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...JUST DID A QUICK UPDATE TO GRIDS AND ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT.
A PERSISTENT MESOSCALE LOLVL CONVERGENCE AREA HAS SET UP OVER THE
FCST AREA THIS EVENING WITH A THIN LINE OF SHOWERS TRAINING FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY. ADJUSTED RAIN CHANCES
UPWARD ALONG THIS AXIS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING...THEN STILL
EXPECTING COVERAGE TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD FROM THE WEST LATE
TONIGHT AS THE FRONT BEGINS MOVING THROUGH THE LOCAL FCST AREA. THE
CURRENT SHOWERS ARE MOVING INLAND OFF THE GULF INTO SOUTHERN MOBILE
COUNTY AND CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN BALDWIN COUNTY AND
FURTHER INLAND ALL THE WAY TO THE EVERGREEN AREA (ALIGNED JUST TO
THE WEST OF I-65). THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST WAS IN PRETTY GOOD
SHAPE. DENSE FOG ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR COASTAL ZONES...WHERE DENSE
FOG IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL AREAS OF FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER COASTAL ALABAMA AS WELL.
OFFSHORE MARINE FOG CONTINUES AS WELL. ALL NECESSARY PRODUCTS HAVE
BEEN UPDATED AND TRANSMITTED. 12/DS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015/

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY]...AS OF 3PM THE COLD FRONT IS
MOVING INTO FAR NW AL/NORTH CTRL MS/SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. THE BOUNDARY
WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY PROGRESS SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT
WITH THE FRONT MOVING INTO THE FAR NORTHWEST ZONES LIKELY JUST AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THE FRONT WILL APPROACH THE I-65 CORRIDOR SHORTLY BEFORE
OR NEAR DAYBREAK...AND WILL PUSH SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
BY MIDDAY THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP VERY QUICKLY BEHIND THE
FRONT (ON ORDER OF 20-30 DEGREES IN JUST AN HOUR OR TWO). THE EXACT
LOCATION OF THE FRONT WILL IMPACT LOW TEMPS. HOWEVER...LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S EAST OF I-65...WITH UPPER
30S/LOWER 40S OVER FAR INLAND SE MS/SW AL. WITH THE FRONT PASSING
THROUGH IN THE MORNING HOURS...HIGHS WILL BE REACHED VERY EARLY IN
THE DAY WITH TEMPS DROPPING THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE FRONT TONIGHT UNDER
A CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME. THE CHANCE FOR THUNDER LOOKS
LOW DUE TO A PERSISTENT MID LEVEL CAP AROUND 700 MB. MEANWHILE...A
BAND OF SHOWERS IS LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY THE ACTUALLY FRONT WITH
PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY. THE
SLOPE OF THE FRONT IS VERY SHALLOW...WITH THE 850 MB FRONT LOCATED
WELL TO THE NW OF THE SFC BOUNDARY. THEREFORE...THE BAND OF MORE
MODERATE RAIN IS LIKELY TO IMPACT THE FAR NW PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
850 MB FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE DROPPING INTO LOW TO MID 30S BY
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON ROUGHLY FROM WAYNESBORO AND BUTLER
NORTHWARD. THE CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE BRINGS THE WET BULB
FREEZING LINE INTO FAR NORTHERN CHOCTAW COUNTY DURING THIS
TIME...AND THIS WILL BE THE LOCATION THAT WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE
OF SEEING A PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN. FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...A
COLD RAIN IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED. WE WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR
TEMPS CLOSELY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. AT THIS POINT...WE DO NOT
PLAN TO ISSUE A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR CHOCTAW COUNTY AS
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH THAT THERE WILL BE ANY ICE ACCRUAL. WHILE
TEMPS NEAR FREEZING ARE POSSIBLE...THE COMBINATION OF VERY WARM
GROUND TEMPS (IT REACHED 80 TODAY) WITH THE GREATER INSOLATION
FACTOR OF THE MARCH SUN ANGLE WILL MAKE IT VERY HARD TO ACCRUE ICE
DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY.

AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...EXPECT AREAS OF DENSE FOG
TO REDEVELOP TONIGHT ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10 AND A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THOSE ZONES. PATCHY DENSE FOG IS
ALSO POSSIBLE FURTHER INLAND AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT CONFIDENCE IS
NOT AS HIGH. THE FOG WILL CLEAR WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

ONE LAST NOTE...IT WILL BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT ON THURSDAY WHICH WILL MAKE WIND CHILLS DROP INTO THE 20S/30S
OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WINDS CHILLS MAINLY IN THE 40S ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST. 34/JFB

THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WELL SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN
GULF AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FL PENINSULA THURSDAY NIGHT AS COLD
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ON THE ORDER OF 1039 MB BUILDS FROM NORTHEAST
TX INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI...TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS. DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD AND WILL
GENERALLY EXTEND FROM FAR SOUTHEAST MS AND SOUTHWEST AL THROUGH THE
NORTHWEST FL PANHANDLE DURING THE EVENING BEFORE MOSTLY PUSHING
OFFSHORE AND TO THE EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURE PROFILES REMAIN WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP A MENTION/SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST GENERALLY TO THE SOUTHEAST OF A
WIGGINS MS...MONROEVILLE AL....LUVERNE AL LINE THURSDAY EVENING
BEFORE ANY LINGERING LIGHT RAIN BECOMES FOCUSED OFFSHORE TO NEAR THE
IMMEDIATE NORTHWEST FL PANHANDLE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT. MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES ARE OTHERWISE EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING
FROM THE MID TO AROUND 30 OVER INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MS AND SOUTHWEST AL
TO THE MID TO UPPER 30S NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST REGION FRIDAY UNDERNEATH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...AND WE WILL
CONTINUE A DRY FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION. A GRADUAL DECREASE IN
CLOUD COVER IS ALSO EXPECTED. A BROAD COOL SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE VICINITY OF SOUTH AND EAST TX TO THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION FRIDAY. HIGHS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON SHOULD CONTINUE TO AVERAGE WELL BELOW NORMAL...WITH
READINGS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S INLAND TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S
NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. /21

LONG TERM [SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...DRY ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AND EXPECT SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES.
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
SUNDAY...AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AND SPREAD ACROSS
SOUTH TX...THE NORTHWESTERN GULF AND NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST REGION AHEAD OF THIS NEXT FEATURE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MONDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO BRING RAIN CHANCES UPWARD INTO THE 30-40
PERCENT CHANCE RANGE ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. A
WET WEATHER PATTERN MAY CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK
AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS...THOUGH MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE DOES
HAVE SOME DISAGREEMENT ON TIMING OF THE NEXT WAVE OF DEEP MOISTURE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. WE LEFT A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND
UPWARD TOWARD NORMAL VALUES EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. /21

AVIATION...
18Z ISSUANCE...
DAYTIME HEATING HAS RESULTED IN STRONG MIXING AND A LIFTING OF CIGS
TO MVFR OR VFR LEVELS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. IFR/LIFR CIGS/VSBYS
WILL BE PREDOMINATE ALONG COASTAL AL/NW FL TONIGHT UNDER A CONTINUED
WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
AREA OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE AT THE
TAF SITES EXPECTED TO BE AROUND THE 15-16Z TIME FRAME. HOWEVER...IFR
TO LIFR CIGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN. 34/JFB

MARINE...AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE NEAR SHORE
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. WHILE CONDITIONS HAVE
IMPROVED SOME THIS AFTERNOON...DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY
REDEVELOP AFTER SUNSET. OTHERWISE...A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL PERSIST TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING WITH
A STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM 10AM THURSDAY UNTIL 10AM FRIDAY.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE NORTH. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS TO IMPACT
THE MARINE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF AND TRACKS NORTHEAST. THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE
LOW IS STILL UNCERTAIN. 34/JFB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      58  60  30  52  34 /  50  60  20  10  05
PENSACOLA   64  65  37  54  38 /  40  60  20  10  05
DESTIN      63  65  39  54  44 /  40  50  30  20  10
EVERGREEN   58  60  32  52  32 /  50  60  20  10  05
WAYNESBORO  42  44  25  48  27 /  60  70  10  05  05
CAMDEN      47  49  27  50  32 /  60  70  10  05  05
CRESTVIEW   64  66  36  56  36 /  50  60  20  10  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THURSDAY FOR ALZ063-064.

FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THURSDAY FOR FLZ002-004-006.

MS...NONE.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THURSDAY FOR GMZ630>635-650-
     655.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THURSDAY TO 10 AM CST FRIDAY FOR
     GMZ630>635-650-655-670-675.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 050354
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
954 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...JUST DID A QUICK UPDATE TO GRIDS AND ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT.
A PERSISTENT MESOSCALE LOLVL CONVERGENCE AREA HAS SET UP OVER THE
FCST THIS EVENING WITH A THIN LINE OF SHOWERS TRAINING FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY. ADJUSTED RAIN CHANCES UPWARD ALONG
THIS AXIS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING...THEN STILL EXPECTING
COVERAGE TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT AS THE
FRONT BEGINS MOVING THROUGH THE LOCAL FCST AREA. THE CURRENT SHOWERS
ARE MOVING INLAND OFF THE GULF INTO SOUTHERN MOBILE COUNTY AND
CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN BALDWIN COUNTY AND FURTHER
INLAND ALL THE WAY TO THE EVERGREEN AREA (ALIGNED JUST TO THE WEST OF
I-65). THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST WAS IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE. DENSE FOG
ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR COASTAL ZONES...WHERE DENSE FOG IS BEGINNING
TO DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL AREAS OF FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP OVER COASTAL ALABAMA AS WELL. OFFSHORE MARINE FOG
CONTINUES AS WELL. ALL NECESSARY PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED AND
TRANSMITTED. 12/DS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015/

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY]...AS OF 3PM THE COLD FRONT IS
MOVING INTO FAR NW AL/NORTH CTRL MS/SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. THE BOUNDARY
WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY PROGRESS SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT
WITH THE FRONT MOVING INTO THE FAR NORTHWEST ZONES LIKELY JUST AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THE FRONT WILL APPROACH THE I-65 CORRIDOR SHORTLY BEFORE
OR NEAR DAYBREAK...AND WILL PUSH SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
BY MIDDAY THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP VERY QUICKLY BEHIND THE
FRONT (ON ORDER OF 20-30 DEGREES IN JUST AN HOUR OR TWO). THE EXACT
LOCATION OF THE FRONT WILL IMPACT LOW TEMPS. HOWEVER...LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S EAST OF I-65...WITH UPPER
30S/LOWER 40S OVER FAR INLAND SE MS/SW AL. WITH THE FRONT PASSING
THROUGH IN THE MORNING HOURS...HIGHS WILL BE REACHED VERY EARLY IN
THE DAY WITH TEMPS DROPPING THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE FRONT TONIGHT UNDER
A CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME. THE CHANCE FOR THUNDER LOOKS
LOW DUE TO A PERSISTENT MID LEVEL CAP AROUND 700 MB. MEANWHILE...A
BAND OF SHOWERS IS LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY THE ACTUALLY FRONT WITH
PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY. THE
SLOPE OF THE FRONT IS VERY SHALLOW...WITH THE 850 MB FRONT LOCATED
WELL TO THE NW OF THE SFC BOUNDARY. THEREFORE...THE BAND OF MORE
MODERATE RAIN IS LIKELY TO IMPACT THE FAR NW PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
850 MB FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE DROPPING INTO LOW TO MID 30S BY
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON ROUGHLY FROM WAYNESBORO AND BUTLER
NORTHWARD. THE CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE BRINGS THE WET BULB
FREEZING LINE INTO FAR NORTHERN CHOCTAW COUNTY DURING THIS
TIME...AND THIS WILL BE THE LOCATION THAT WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE
OF SEEING A PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN. FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...A
COLD RAIN IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED. WE WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR
TEMPS CLOSELY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. AT THIS POINT...WE DO NOT
PLAN TO ISSUE A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR CHOCTAW COUNTY AS
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH THAT THERE WILL BE ANY ICE ACCRUAL. WHILE
TEMPS NEAR FREEZING ARE POSSIBLE...THE COMBINATION OF VERY WARM
GROUND TEMPS (IT REACHED 80 TODAY) WITH THE GREATER INSOLATION
FACTOR OF THE MARCH SUN ANGLE WILL MAKE IT VERY HARD TO ACCRUE ICE
DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY.

AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...EXPECT AREAS OF DENSE FOG
TO REDEVELOP TONIGHT ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10 AND A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THOSE ZONES. PATCHY DENSE FOG IS
ALSO POSSIBLE FURTHER INLAND AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT CONFIDENCE IS
NOT AS HIGH. THE FOG WILL CLEAR WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

ONE LAST NOTE...IT WILL BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT ON THURSDAY WHICH WILL MAKE WIND CHILLS DROP INTO THE 20S/30S
OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WINDS CHILLS MAINLY IN THE 40S ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST. 34/JFB

THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WELL SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN
GULF AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FL PENINSULA THURSDAY NIGHT AS COLD
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ON THE ORDER OF 1039 MB BUILDS FROM NORTHEAST
TX INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI...TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS. DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD AND WILL
GENERALLY EXTEND FROM FAR SOUTHEAST MS AND SOUTHWEST AL THROUGH THE
NORTHWEST FL PANHANDLE DURING THE EVENING BEFORE MOSTLY PUSHING
OFFSHORE AND TO THE EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURE PROFILES REMAIN WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP A MENTION/SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST GENERALLY TO THE SOUTHEAST OF A
WIGGINS MS...MONROEVILLE AL....LUVERNE AL LINE THURSDAY EVENING
BEFORE ANY LINGERING LIGHT RAIN BECOMES FOCUSED OFFSHORE TO NEAR THE
IMMEDIATE NORTHWEST FL PANHANDLE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT. MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES ARE OTHERWISE EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING
FROM THE MID TO AROUND 30 OVER INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MS AND SOUTHWEST AL
TO THE MID TO UPPER 30S NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST REGION FRIDAY UNDERNEATH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...AND WE WILL
CONTINUE A DRY FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION. A GRADUAL DECREASE IN
CLOUD COVER IS ALSO EXPECTED. A BROAD COOL SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE VICINITY OF SOUTH AND EAST TX TO THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION FRIDAY. HIGHS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON SHOULD CONTINUE TO AVERAGE WELL BELOW NORMAL...WITH
READINGS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S INLAND TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S
NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. /21

LONG TERM [SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...DRY ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AND EXPECT SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES.
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
SUNDAY...AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AND SPREAD ACROSS
SOUTH TX...THE NORTHWESTERN GULF AND NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST REGION AHEAD OF THIS NEXT FEATURE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MONDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO BRING RAIN CHANCES UPWARD INTO THE 30-40
PERCENT CHANCE RANGE ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. A
WET WEATHER PATTERN MAY CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK
AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS...THOUGH MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE DOES
HAVE SOME DISAGREEMENT ON TIMING OF THE NEXT WAVE OF DEEP MOISTURE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. WE LEFT A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND
UPWARD TOWARD NORMAL VALUES EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. /21

AVIATION...
18Z ISSUANCE...
DAYTIME HEATING HAS RESULTED IN STRONG MIXING AND A LIFTING OF CIGS
TO MVFR OR VFR LEVELS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. IFR/LIFR CIGS/VSBYS
WILL BE PREDOMINATE ALONG COASTAL AL/NW FL TONIGHT UNDER A CONTINUED
WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
AREA OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE AT THE
TAF SITES EXPECTED TO BE AROUND THE 15-16Z TIME FRAME. HOWEVER...IFR
TO LIFR CIGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN. 34/JFB

MARINE...AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE NEAR SHORE
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. WHILE CONDITIONS HAVE
IMPROVED SOME THIS AFTERNOON...DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY
REDEVELOP AFTER SUNSET. OTHERWISE...A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL PERSIST TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING WITH
A STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM 10AM THURSDAY UNTIL 10AM FRIDAY.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE NORTH. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS TO IMPACT
THE MARINE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF AND TRACKS NORTHEAST. THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE
LOW IS STILL UNCERTAIN. 34/JFB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      58  60  30  52  34 /  50  60  20  10  05
PENSACOLA   64  65  37  54  38 /  40  60  20  10  05
DESTIN      63  65  39  54  44 /  40  50  30  20  10
EVERGREEN   58  60  32  52  32 /  50  60  20  10  05
WAYNESBORO  42  44  25  48  27 /  60  70  10  05  05
CAMDEN      47  49  27  50  32 /  60  70  10  05  05
CRESTVIEW   64  66  36  56  36 /  50  60  20  10  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THURSDAY FOR ALZ063-064.

FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THURSDAY FOR FLZ002-004-006.

MS...NONE.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THURSDAY FOR GMZ630>635-650-
     655.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THURSDAY TO 10 AM CST FRIDAY FOR
     GMZ630>635-650-655-670-675.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMOB 050354
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
954 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...JUST DID A QUICK UPDATE TO GRIDS AND ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT.
A PERSISTENT MESOSCALE LOLVL CONVERGENCE AREA HAS SET UP OVER THE
FCST THIS EVENING WITH A THIN LINE OF SHOWERS TRAINING FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY. ADJUSTED RAIN CHANCES UPWARD ALONG
THIS AXIS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING...THEN STILL EXPECTING
COVERAGE TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT AS THE
FRONT BEGINS MOVING THROUGH THE LOCAL FCST AREA. THE CURRENT SHOWERS
ARE MOVING INLAND OFF THE GULF INTO SOUTHERN MOBILE COUNTY AND
CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN BALDWIN COUNTY AND FURTHER
INLAND ALL THE WAY TO THE EVERGREEN AREA (ALIGNED JUST TO THE WEST OF
I-65). THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST WAS IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE. DENSE FOG
ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR COASTAL ZONES...WHERE DENSE FOG IS BEGINNING
TO DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL AREAS OF FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP OVER COASTAL ALABAMA AS WELL. OFFSHORE MARINE FOG
CONTINUES AS WELL. ALL NECESSARY PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED AND
TRANSMITTED. 12/DS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015/

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY]...AS OF 3PM THE COLD FRONT IS
MOVING INTO FAR NW AL/NORTH CTRL MS/SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. THE BOUNDARY
WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY PROGRESS SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT
WITH THE FRONT MOVING INTO THE FAR NORTHWEST ZONES LIKELY JUST AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THE FRONT WILL APPROACH THE I-65 CORRIDOR SHORTLY BEFORE
OR NEAR DAYBREAK...AND WILL PUSH SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
BY MIDDAY THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP VERY QUICKLY BEHIND THE
FRONT (ON ORDER OF 20-30 DEGREES IN JUST AN HOUR OR TWO). THE EXACT
LOCATION OF THE FRONT WILL IMPACT LOW TEMPS. HOWEVER...LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S EAST OF I-65...WITH UPPER
30S/LOWER 40S OVER FAR INLAND SE MS/SW AL. WITH THE FRONT PASSING
THROUGH IN THE MORNING HOURS...HIGHS WILL BE REACHED VERY EARLY IN
THE DAY WITH TEMPS DROPPING THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE FRONT TONIGHT UNDER
A CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME. THE CHANCE FOR THUNDER LOOKS
LOW DUE TO A PERSISTENT MID LEVEL CAP AROUND 700 MB. MEANWHILE...A
BAND OF SHOWERS IS LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY THE ACTUALLY FRONT WITH
PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY. THE
SLOPE OF THE FRONT IS VERY SHALLOW...WITH THE 850 MB FRONT LOCATED
WELL TO THE NW OF THE SFC BOUNDARY. THEREFORE...THE BAND OF MORE
MODERATE RAIN IS LIKELY TO IMPACT THE FAR NW PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
850 MB FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE DROPPING INTO LOW TO MID 30S BY
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON ROUGHLY FROM WAYNESBORO AND BUTLER
NORTHWARD. THE CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE BRINGS THE WET BULB
FREEZING LINE INTO FAR NORTHERN CHOCTAW COUNTY DURING THIS
TIME...AND THIS WILL BE THE LOCATION THAT WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE
OF SEEING A PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN. FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...A
COLD RAIN IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED. WE WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR
TEMPS CLOSELY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. AT THIS POINT...WE DO NOT
PLAN TO ISSUE A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR CHOCTAW COUNTY AS
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH THAT THERE WILL BE ANY ICE ACCRUAL. WHILE
TEMPS NEAR FREEZING ARE POSSIBLE...THE COMBINATION OF VERY WARM
GROUND TEMPS (IT REACHED 80 TODAY) WITH THE GREATER INSOLATION
FACTOR OF THE MARCH SUN ANGLE WILL MAKE IT VERY HARD TO ACCRUE ICE
DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY.

AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...EXPECT AREAS OF DENSE FOG
TO REDEVELOP TONIGHT ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10 AND A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THOSE ZONES. PATCHY DENSE FOG IS
ALSO POSSIBLE FURTHER INLAND AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT CONFIDENCE IS
NOT AS HIGH. THE FOG WILL CLEAR WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

ONE LAST NOTE...IT WILL BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT ON THURSDAY WHICH WILL MAKE WIND CHILLS DROP INTO THE 20S/30S
OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WINDS CHILLS MAINLY IN THE 40S ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST. 34/JFB

THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WELL SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN
GULF AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FL PENINSULA THURSDAY NIGHT AS COLD
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ON THE ORDER OF 1039 MB BUILDS FROM NORTHEAST
TX INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI...TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS. DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD AND WILL
GENERALLY EXTEND FROM FAR SOUTHEAST MS AND SOUTHWEST AL THROUGH THE
NORTHWEST FL PANHANDLE DURING THE EVENING BEFORE MOSTLY PUSHING
OFFSHORE AND TO THE EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURE PROFILES REMAIN WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP A MENTION/SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST GENERALLY TO THE SOUTHEAST OF A
WIGGINS MS...MONROEVILLE AL....LUVERNE AL LINE THURSDAY EVENING
BEFORE ANY LINGERING LIGHT RAIN BECOMES FOCUSED OFFSHORE TO NEAR THE
IMMEDIATE NORTHWEST FL PANHANDLE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT. MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES ARE OTHERWISE EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING
FROM THE MID TO AROUND 30 OVER INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MS AND SOUTHWEST AL
TO THE MID TO UPPER 30S NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST REGION FRIDAY UNDERNEATH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...AND WE WILL
CONTINUE A DRY FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION. A GRADUAL DECREASE IN
CLOUD COVER IS ALSO EXPECTED. A BROAD COOL SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE VICINITY OF SOUTH AND EAST TX TO THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION FRIDAY. HIGHS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON SHOULD CONTINUE TO AVERAGE WELL BELOW NORMAL...WITH
READINGS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S INLAND TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S
NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. /21

LONG TERM [SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...DRY ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AND EXPECT SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES.
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
SUNDAY...AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AND SPREAD ACROSS
SOUTH TX...THE NORTHWESTERN GULF AND NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST REGION AHEAD OF THIS NEXT FEATURE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MONDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO BRING RAIN CHANCES UPWARD INTO THE 30-40
PERCENT CHANCE RANGE ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. A
WET WEATHER PATTERN MAY CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK
AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS...THOUGH MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE DOES
HAVE SOME DISAGREEMENT ON TIMING OF THE NEXT WAVE OF DEEP MOISTURE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. WE LEFT A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND
UPWARD TOWARD NORMAL VALUES EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. /21

AVIATION...
18Z ISSUANCE...
DAYTIME HEATING HAS RESULTED IN STRONG MIXING AND A LIFTING OF CIGS
TO MVFR OR VFR LEVELS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. IFR/LIFR CIGS/VSBYS
WILL BE PREDOMINATE ALONG COASTAL AL/NW FL TONIGHT UNDER A CONTINUED
WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
AREA OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE AT THE
TAF SITES EXPECTED TO BE AROUND THE 15-16Z TIME FRAME. HOWEVER...IFR
TO LIFR CIGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN. 34/JFB

MARINE...AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE NEAR SHORE
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. WHILE CONDITIONS HAVE
IMPROVED SOME THIS AFTERNOON...DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY
REDEVELOP AFTER SUNSET. OTHERWISE...A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL PERSIST TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING WITH
A STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM 10AM THURSDAY UNTIL 10AM FRIDAY.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE NORTH. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS TO IMPACT
THE MARINE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF AND TRACKS NORTHEAST. THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE
LOW IS STILL UNCERTAIN. 34/JFB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      58  60  30  52  34 /  50  60  20  10  05
PENSACOLA   64  65  37  54  38 /  40  60  20  10  05
DESTIN      63  65  39  54  44 /  40  50  30  20  10
EVERGREEN   58  60  32  52  32 /  50  60  20  10  05
WAYNESBORO  42  44  25  48  27 /  60  70  10  05  05
CAMDEN      47  49  27  50  32 /  60  70  10  05  05
CRESTVIEW   64  66  36  56  36 /  50  60  20  10  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THURSDAY FOR ALZ063-064.

FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THURSDAY FOR FLZ002-004-006.

MS...NONE.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THURSDAY FOR GMZ630>635-650-
     655.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THURSDAY TO 10 AM CST FRIDAY FOR
     GMZ630>635-650-655-670-675.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 050354
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
954 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...JUST DID A QUICK UPDATE TO GRIDS AND ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT.
A PERSISTENT MESOSCALE LOLVL CONVERGENCE AREA HAS SET UP OVER THE
FCST THIS EVENING WITH A THIN LINE OF SHOWERS TRAINING FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY. ADJUSTED RAIN CHANCES UPWARD ALONG
THIS AXIS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING...THEN STILL EXPECTING
COVERAGE TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT AS THE
FRONT BEGINS MOVING THROUGH THE LOCAL FCST AREA. THE CURRENT SHOWERS
ARE MOVING INLAND OFF THE GULF INTO SOUTHERN MOBILE COUNTY AND
CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN BALDWIN COUNTY AND FURTHER
INLAND ALL THE WAY TO THE EVERGREEN AREA (ALIGNED JUST TO THE WEST OF
I-65). THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST WAS IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE. DENSE FOG
ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR COASTAL ZONES...WHERE DENSE FOG IS BEGINNING
TO DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL AREAS OF FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP OVER COASTAL ALABAMA AS WELL. OFFSHORE MARINE FOG
CONTINUES AS WELL. ALL NECESSARY PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED AND
TRANSMITTED. 12/DS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015/

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY]...AS OF 3PM THE COLD FRONT IS
MOVING INTO FAR NW AL/NORTH CTRL MS/SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. THE BOUNDARY
WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY PROGRESS SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT
WITH THE FRONT MOVING INTO THE FAR NORTHWEST ZONES LIKELY JUST AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THE FRONT WILL APPROACH THE I-65 CORRIDOR SHORTLY BEFORE
OR NEAR DAYBREAK...AND WILL PUSH SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
BY MIDDAY THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP VERY QUICKLY BEHIND THE
FRONT (ON ORDER OF 20-30 DEGREES IN JUST AN HOUR OR TWO). THE EXACT
LOCATION OF THE FRONT WILL IMPACT LOW TEMPS. HOWEVER...LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S EAST OF I-65...WITH UPPER
30S/LOWER 40S OVER FAR INLAND SE MS/SW AL. WITH THE FRONT PASSING
THROUGH IN THE MORNING HOURS...HIGHS WILL BE REACHED VERY EARLY IN
THE DAY WITH TEMPS DROPPING THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE FRONT TONIGHT UNDER
A CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME. THE CHANCE FOR THUNDER LOOKS
LOW DUE TO A PERSISTENT MID LEVEL CAP AROUND 700 MB. MEANWHILE...A
BAND OF SHOWERS IS LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY THE ACTUALLY FRONT WITH
PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY. THE
SLOPE OF THE FRONT IS VERY SHALLOW...WITH THE 850 MB FRONT LOCATED
WELL TO THE NW OF THE SFC BOUNDARY. THEREFORE...THE BAND OF MORE
MODERATE RAIN IS LIKELY TO IMPACT THE FAR NW PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
850 MB FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE DROPPING INTO LOW TO MID 30S BY
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON ROUGHLY FROM WAYNESBORO AND BUTLER
NORTHWARD. THE CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE BRINGS THE WET BULB
FREEZING LINE INTO FAR NORTHERN CHOCTAW COUNTY DURING THIS
TIME...AND THIS WILL BE THE LOCATION THAT WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE
OF SEEING A PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN. FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...A
COLD RAIN IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED. WE WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR
TEMPS CLOSELY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. AT THIS POINT...WE DO NOT
PLAN TO ISSUE A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR CHOCTAW COUNTY AS
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH THAT THERE WILL BE ANY ICE ACCRUAL. WHILE
TEMPS NEAR FREEZING ARE POSSIBLE...THE COMBINATION OF VERY WARM
GROUND TEMPS (IT REACHED 80 TODAY) WITH THE GREATER INSOLATION
FACTOR OF THE MARCH SUN ANGLE WILL MAKE IT VERY HARD TO ACCRUE ICE
DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY.

AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...EXPECT AREAS OF DENSE FOG
TO REDEVELOP TONIGHT ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10 AND A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THOSE ZONES. PATCHY DENSE FOG IS
ALSO POSSIBLE FURTHER INLAND AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT CONFIDENCE IS
NOT AS HIGH. THE FOG WILL CLEAR WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

ONE LAST NOTE...IT WILL BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT ON THURSDAY WHICH WILL MAKE WIND CHILLS DROP INTO THE 20S/30S
OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WINDS CHILLS MAINLY IN THE 40S ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST. 34/JFB

THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WELL SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN
GULF AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FL PENINSULA THURSDAY NIGHT AS COLD
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ON THE ORDER OF 1039 MB BUILDS FROM NORTHEAST
TX INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI...TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS. DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD AND WILL
GENERALLY EXTEND FROM FAR SOUTHEAST MS AND SOUTHWEST AL THROUGH THE
NORTHWEST FL PANHANDLE DURING THE EVENING BEFORE MOSTLY PUSHING
OFFSHORE AND TO THE EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURE PROFILES REMAIN WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP A MENTION/SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST GENERALLY TO THE SOUTHEAST OF A
WIGGINS MS...MONROEVILLE AL....LUVERNE AL LINE THURSDAY EVENING
BEFORE ANY LINGERING LIGHT RAIN BECOMES FOCUSED OFFSHORE TO NEAR THE
IMMEDIATE NORTHWEST FL PANHANDLE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT. MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES ARE OTHERWISE EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING
FROM THE MID TO AROUND 30 OVER INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MS AND SOUTHWEST AL
TO THE MID TO UPPER 30S NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST REGION FRIDAY UNDERNEATH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...AND WE WILL
CONTINUE A DRY FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION. A GRADUAL DECREASE IN
CLOUD COVER IS ALSO EXPECTED. A BROAD COOL SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE VICINITY OF SOUTH AND EAST TX TO THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION FRIDAY. HIGHS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON SHOULD CONTINUE TO AVERAGE WELL BELOW NORMAL...WITH
READINGS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S INLAND TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S
NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. /21

LONG TERM [SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...DRY ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AND EXPECT SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES.
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
SUNDAY...AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AND SPREAD ACROSS
SOUTH TX...THE NORTHWESTERN GULF AND NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST REGION AHEAD OF THIS NEXT FEATURE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MONDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO BRING RAIN CHANCES UPWARD INTO THE 30-40
PERCENT CHANCE RANGE ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. A
WET WEATHER PATTERN MAY CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK
AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS...THOUGH MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE DOES
HAVE SOME DISAGREEMENT ON TIMING OF THE NEXT WAVE OF DEEP MOISTURE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. WE LEFT A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND
UPWARD TOWARD NORMAL VALUES EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. /21

AVIATION...
18Z ISSUANCE...
DAYTIME HEATING HAS RESULTED IN STRONG MIXING AND A LIFTING OF CIGS
TO MVFR OR VFR LEVELS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. IFR/LIFR CIGS/VSBYS
WILL BE PREDOMINATE ALONG COASTAL AL/NW FL TONIGHT UNDER A CONTINUED
WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
AREA OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE AT THE
TAF SITES EXPECTED TO BE AROUND THE 15-16Z TIME FRAME. HOWEVER...IFR
TO LIFR CIGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN. 34/JFB

MARINE...AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE NEAR SHORE
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. WHILE CONDITIONS HAVE
IMPROVED SOME THIS AFTERNOON...DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY
REDEVELOP AFTER SUNSET. OTHERWISE...A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL PERSIST TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING WITH
A STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM 10AM THURSDAY UNTIL 10AM FRIDAY.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE NORTH. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS TO IMPACT
THE MARINE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF AND TRACKS NORTHEAST. THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE
LOW IS STILL UNCERTAIN. 34/JFB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      58  60  30  52  34 /  50  60  20  10  05
PENSACOLA   64  65  37  54  38 /  40  60  20  10  05
DESTIN      63  65  39  54  44 /  40  50  30  20  10
EVERGREEN   58  60  32  52  32 /  50  60  20  10  05
WAYNESBORO  42  44  25  48  27 /  60  70  10  05  05
CAMDEN      47  49  27  50  32 /  60  70  10  05  05
CRESTVIEW   64  66  36  56  36 /  50  60  20  10  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THURSDAY FOR ALZ063-064.

FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THURSDAY FOR FLZ002-004-006.

MS...NONE.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THURSDAY FOR GMZ630>635-650-
     655.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THURSDAY TO 10 AM CST FRIDAY FOR
     GMZ630>635-650-655-670-675.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMOB 050354
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
954 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...JUST DID A QUICK UPDATE TO GRIDS AND ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT.
A PERSISTENT MESOSCALE LOLVL CONVERGENCE AREA HAS SET UP OVER THE
FCST THIS EVENING WITH A THIN LINE OF SHOWERS TRAINING FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY. ADJUSTED RAIN CHANCES UPWARD ALONG
THIS AXIS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING...THEN STILL EXPECTING
COVERAGE TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT AS THE
FRONT BEGINS MOVING THROUGH THE LOCAL FCST AREA. THE CURRENT SHOWERS
ARE MOVING INLAND OFF THE GULF INTO SOUTHERN MOBILE COUNTY AND
CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN BALDWIN COUNTY AND FURTHER
INLAND ALL THE WAY TO THE EVERGREEN AREA (ALIGNED JUST TO THE WEST OF
I-65). THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST WAS IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE. DENSE FOG
ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR COASTAL ZONES...WHERE DENSE FOG IS BEGINNING
TO DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL AREAS OF FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP OVER COASTAL ALABAMA AS WELL. OFFSHORE MARINE FOG
CONTINUES AS WELL. ALL NECESSARY PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED AND
TRANSMITTED. 12/DS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015/

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY]...AS OF 3PM THE COLD FRONT IS
MOVING INTO FAR NW AL/NORTH CTRL MS/SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. THE BOUNDARY
WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY PROGRESS SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT
WITH THE FRONT MOVING INTO THE FAR NORTHWEST ZONES LIKELY JUST AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THE FRONT WILL APPROACH THE I-65 CORRIDOR SHORTLY BEFORE
OR NEAR DAYBREAK...AND WILL PUSH SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
BY MIDDAY THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP VERY QUICKLY BEHIND THE
FRONT (ON ORDER OF 20-30 DEGREES IN JUST AN HOUR OR TWO). THE EXACT
LOCATION OF THE FRONT WILL IMPACT LOW TEMPS. HOWEVER...LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S EAST OF I-65...WITH UPPER
30S/LOWER 40S OVER FAR INLAND SE MS/SW AL. WITH THE FRONT PASSING
THROUGH IN THE MORNING HOURS...HIGHS WILL BE REACHED VERY EARLY IN
THE DAY WITH TEMPS DROPPING THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE FRONT TONIGHT UNDER
A CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME. THE CHANCE FOR THUNDER LOOKS
LOW DUE TO A PERSISTENT MID LEVEL CAP AROUND 700 MB. MEANWHILE...A
BAND OF SHOWERS IS LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY THE ACTUALLY FRONT WITH
PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY. THE
SLOPE OF THE FRONT IS VERY SHALLOW...WITH THE 850 MB FRONT LOCATED
WELL TO THE NW OF THE SFC BOUNDARY. THEREFORE...THE BAND OF MORE
MODERATE RAIN IS LIKELY TO IMPACT THE FAR NW PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
850 MB FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE DROPPING INTO LOW TO MID 30S BY
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON ROUGHLY FROM WAYNESBORO AND BUTLER
NORTHWARD. THE CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE BRINGS THE WET BULB
FREEZING LINE INTO FAR NORTHERN CHOCTAW COUNTY DURING THIS
TIME...AND THIS WILL BE THE LOCATION THAT WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE
OF SEEING A PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN. FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...A
COLD RAIN IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED. WE WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR
TEMPS CLOSELY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. AT THIS POINT...WE DO NOT
PLAN TO ISSUE A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR CHOCTAW COUNTY AS
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH THAT THERE WILL BE ANY ICE ACCRUAL. WHILE
TEMPS NEAR FREEZING ARE POSSIBLE...THE COMBINATION OF VERY WARM
GROUND TEMPS (IT REACHED 80 TODAY) WITH THE GREATER INSOLATION
FACTOR OF THE MARCH SUN ANGLE WILL MAKE IT VERY HARD TO ACCRUE ICE
DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY.

AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...EXPECT AREAS OF DENSE FOG
TO REDEVELOP TONIGHT ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10 AND A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THOSE ZONES. PATCHY DENSE FOG IS
ALSO POSSIBLE FURTHER INLAND AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT CONFIDENCE IS
NOT AS HIGH. THE FOG WILL CLEAR WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

ONE LAST NOTE...IT WILL BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT ON THURSDAY WHICH WILL MAKE WIND CHILLS DROP INTO THE 20S/30S
OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WINDS CHILLS MAINLY IN THE 40S ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST. 34/JFB

THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WELL SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN
GULF AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FL PENINSULA THURSDAY NIGHT AS COLD
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ON THE ORDER OF 1039 MB BUILDS FROM NORTHEAST
TX INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI...TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS. DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD AND WILL
GENERALLY EXTEND FROM FAR SOUTHEAST MS AND SOUTHWEST AL THROUGH THE
NORTHWEST FL PANHANDLE DURING THE EVENING BEFORE MOSTLY PUSHING
OFFSHORE AND TO THE EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURE PROFILES REMAIN WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP A MENTION/SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST GENERALLY TO THE SOUTHEAST OF A
WIGGINS MS...MONROEVILLE AL....LUVERNE AL LINE THURSDAY EVENING
BEFORE ANY LINGERING LIGHT RAIN BECOMES FOCUSED OFFSHORE TO NEAR THE
IMMEDIATE NORTHWEST FL PANHANDLE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT. MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES ARE OTHERWISE EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING
FROM THE MID TO AROUND 30 OVER INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MS AND SOUTHWEST AL
TO THE MID TO UPPER 30S NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST REGION FRIDAY UNDERNEATH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...AND WE WILL
CONTINUE A DRY FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION. A GRADUAL DECREASE IN
CLOUD COVER IS ALSO EXPECTED. A BROAD COOL SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE VICINITY OF SOUTH AND EAST TX TO THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION FRIDAY. HIGHS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON SHOULD CONTINUE TO AVERAGE WELL BELOW NORMAL...WITH
READINGS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S INLAND TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S
NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. /21

LONG TERM [SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...DRY ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AND EXPECT SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES.
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
SUNDAY...AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AND SPREAD ACROSS
SOUTH TX...THE NORTHWESTERN GULF AND NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST REGION AHEAD OF THIS NEXT FEATURE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MONDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO BRING RAIN CHANCES UPWARD INTO THE 30-40
PERCENT CHANCE RANGE ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. A
WET WEATHER PATTERN MAY CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK
AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS...THOUGH MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE DOES
HAVE SOME DISAGREEMENT ON TIMING OF THE NEXT WAVE OF DEEP MOISTURE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. WE LEFT A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND
UPWARD TOWARD NORMAL VALUES EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. /21

AVIATION...
18Z ISSUANCE...
DAYTIME HEATING HAS RESULTED IN STRONG MIXING AND A LIFTING OF CIGS
TO MVFR OR VFR LEVELS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. IFR/LIFR CIGS/VSBYS
WILL BE PREDOMINATE ALONG COASTAL AL/NW FL TONIGHT UNDER A CONTINUED
WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
AREA OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE AT THE
TAF SITES EXPECTED TO BE AROUND THE 15-16Z TIME FRAME. HOWEVER...IFR
TO LIFR CIGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN. 34/JFB

MARINE...AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE NEAR SHORE
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. WHILE CONDITIONS HAVE
IMPROVED SOME THIS AFTERNOON...DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY
REDEVELOP AFTER SUNSET. OTHERWISE...A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL PERSIST TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING WITH
A STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM 10AM THURSDAY UNTIL 10AM FRIDAY.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE NORTH. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS TO IMPACT
THE MARINE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF AND TRACKS NORTHEAST. THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE
LOW IS STILL UNCERTAIN. 34/JFB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      58  60  30  52  34 /  50  60  20  10  05
PENSACOLA   64  65  37  54  38 /  40  60  20  10  05
DESTIN      63  65  39  54  44 /  40  50  30  20  10
EVERGREEN   58  60  32  52  32 /  50  60  20  10  05
WAYNESBORO  42  44  25  48  27 /  60  70  10  05  05
CAMDEN      47  49  27  50  32 /  60  70  10  05  05
CRESTVIEW   64  66  36  56  36 /  50  60  20  10  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THURSDAY FOR ALZ063-064.

FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THURSDAY FOR FLZ002-004-006.

MS...NONE.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THURSDAY FOR GMZ630>635-650-
     655.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THURSDAY TO 10 AM CST FRIDAY FOR
     GMZ630>635-650-655-670-675.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 042203
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
403 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY]...AS OF 3PM THE COLD FRONT IS
MOVING INTO FAR NW AL/NORTH CTRL MS/SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. THE BOUNDARY
WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY PROGRESS SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT
WITH THE FRONT MOVING INTO THE FAR NORTHWEST ZONES LIKELY JUST AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THE FRONT WILL APPROACH THE I-65 CORRIDOR SHORTLY BEFORE
OR NEAR DAYBREAK...AND WILL PUSH SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
BY MIDDAY THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP VERY QUICKLY BEHIND THE
FRONT (ON ORDER OF 20-30 DEGREES IN JUST AN HOUR OR TWO). THE EXACT
LOCATION OF THE FRONT WILL IMPACT LOW TEMPS. HOWEVER...LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S EAST OF I-65...WITH UPPER
30S/LOWER 40S OVER FAR INLAND SE MS/SW AL. WITH THE FRONT PASSING
THROUGH IN THE MORNING HOURS...HIGHS WILL BE REACHED VERY EARLY IN
THE DAY WITH TEMPS DROPPING THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE FRONT TONIGHT UNDER
A CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME. THE CHANCE FOR THUNDER LOOKS
LOW DUE TO A PERSISTENT MID LEVEL CAP AROUND 700 MB. MEANWHILE...A
BAND OF SHOWERS IS LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY THE ACTUALLY FRONT WITH
PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY. THE
SLOPE OF THE FRONT IS VERY SHALLOW...WITH THE 850 MB FRONT LOCATED
WELL TO THE NW OF THE SFC BOUNDARY. THEREFORE...THE BAND OF MORE
MODERATE RAIN IS LIKELY TO IMPACT THE FAR NW PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
850 MB FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE DROPPING INTO LOW TO MID 30S BY
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON ROUGHLY FROM WAYNESBORO AND BUTLER
NORTHWARD. THE CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE BRINGS THE WET BULB
FREEZING LINE INTO FAR NORTHERN CHOCTAW COUNTY DURING THIS
TIME...AND THIS WILL BE THE LOCATION THAT WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE
OF SEEING A PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN. FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...A
COLD RAIN IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED. WE WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR
TEMPS CLOSELY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. AT THIS POINT...WE DO NOT
PLAN TO ISSUE A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR CHOCTAW COUNTY AS
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH THAT THERE WILL BE ANY ICE ACCRUAL. WHILE
TEMPS NEAR FREEZING ARE POSSIBLE...THE COMBINATION OF VERY WARM
GROUND TEMPS (IT REACHED 80 TODAY) WITH THE GREATER INSOLATION
FACTOR OF THE MARCH SUN ANGLE WILL MAKE IT VERY HARD TO ACCRUE ICE
DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY.

AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...EXPECT AREAS OF DENSE FOG
TO REDEVELOP TONIGHT ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10 AND A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THOSE ZONES. PATCHY DENSE FOG IS
ALSO POSSIBLE FURTHER INLAND AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT CONFIDENCE IS
NOT AS HIGH. THE FOG WILL CLEAR WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

ONE LAST NOTE...IT WILL BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT ON THURSDAY WHICH WILL MAKE WIND CHILLS DROP INTO THE 20S/30S
OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WINDS CHILLS MAINLY IN THE 40S ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST. 34/JFB

THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WELL SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN
GULF AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FL PENINSULA THURSDAY NIGHT AS COLD
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ON THE ORDER OF 1039 MB BUILDS FROM NORTHEAST
TX INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI...TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS. DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD AND WILL
GENERALLY EXTEND FROM FAR SOUTHEAST MS AND SOUTHWEST AL THROUGH THE
NORTHWEST FL PANHANDLE DURING THE EVENING BEFORE MOSTLY PUSHING
OFFSHORE AND TO THE EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURE PROFILES REMAIN WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP A MENTION/SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST GENERALLY TO THE SOUTHEAST OF A
WIGGINS MS...MONROEVILLE AL....LUVERNE AL LINE THURSDAY EVENING
BEFORE ANY LINGERING LIGHT RAIN BECOMES FOCUSED OFFSHORE TO NEAR THE
IMMEDIATE NORTHWEST FL PANHANDLE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT. MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES ARE OTHERWISE EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING
FROM THE MID TO AROUND 30 OVER INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MS AND SOUTHWEST AL
TO THE MID TO UPPER 30S NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST REGION FRIDAY UNDERNEATH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...AND WE WILL
CONTINUE A DRY FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION. A GRADUAL DECREASE IN
CLOUD COVER IS ALSO EXPECTED. A BROAD COOL SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE VICINITY OF SOUTH AND EAST TX TO THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION FRIDAY. HIGHS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON SHOULD CONTINUE TO AVERAGE WELL BELOW NORMAL...WITH
READINGS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S INLAND TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S
NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. /21

.LONG TERM [SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...DRY ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AND EXPECT SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES.
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
SUNDAY...AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AND SPREAD ACROSS
SOUTH TX...THE NORTHWESTERN GULF AND NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST REGION AHEAD OF THIS NEXT FEATURE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MONDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO BRING RAIN CHANCES UPWARD INTO THE 30-40
PERCENT CHANCE RANGE ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. A
WET WEATHER PATTERN MAY CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK
AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS...THOUGH MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE DOES
HAVE SOME DISAGREEMENT ON TIMING OF THE NEXT WAVE OF DEEP MOISTURE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. WE LEFT A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND
UPWARD TOWARD NORMAL VALUES EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. /21

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z ISSUANCE...
DAYTIME HEATING HAS RESULTED IN STRONG MIXING AND A LIFTING OF CIGS
TO MVFR OR VFR LEVELS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. IFR/LIFR CIGS/VSBYS
WILL BE PREDOMINATE ALONG COASTAL AL/NW FL TONIGHT UNDER A CONTINUED
WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
AREA OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE AT THE
TAF SITES EXPECTED TO BE AROUND THE 15-16Z TIME FRAME. HOWEVER...IFR
TO LIFR CIGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN. 34/JFB

&&

.MARINE...AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE NEAR SHORE
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. WHILE CONDITIONS HAVE
IMPROVED SOME THIS AFTERNOON...DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY
REDEVELOP AFTER SUNSET. OTHERWISE...A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL PERSIST TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING WITH
A STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM 10AM THURSDAY UNTIL 10AM FRIDAY.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE NORTH. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS TO IMPACT
THE MARINE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF AND TRACKS NORTHEAST. THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE
LOW IS STILL UNCERTAIN. 34/JFB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      58  60  30  52  34 /  50  60  20  10  05
PENSACOLA   64  65  37  54  38 /  40  60  20  10  05
DESTIN      63  65  39  54  44 /  40  50  30  20  10
EVERGREEN   58  60  32  52  32 /  50  60  20  10  05
WAYNESBORO  42  44  25  48  27 /  60  70  10  05  05
CAMDEN      47  49  27  50  32 /  60  70  10  05  05
CRESTVIEW   64  66  36  56  36 /  50  60  20  10  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THURSDAY FOR ALZ063-064.

FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THURSDAY FOR FLZ002-004-006.

MS...NONE.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THURSDAY FOR GMZ630>635-650-
     655.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THURSDAY TO 10 AM CST FRIDAY FOR
     GMZ630>635-650-655-670-675.

&&

$$

34/21




000
FXUS64 KMOB 042203
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
403 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY]...AS OF 3PM THE COLD FRONT IS
MOVING INTO FAR NW AL/NORTH CTRL MS/SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. THE BOUNDARY
WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY PROGRESS SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT
WITH THE FRONT MOVING INTO THE FAR NORTHWEST ZONES LIKELY JUST AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THE FRONT WILL APPROACH THE I-65 CORRIDOR SHORTLY BEFORE
OR NEAR DAYBREAK...AND WILL PUSH SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
BY MIDDAY THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP VERY QUICKLY BEHIND THE
FRONT (ON ORDER OF 20-30 DEGREES IN JUST AN HOUR OR TWO). THE EXACT
LOCATION OF THE FRONT WILL IMPACT LOW TEMPS. HOWEVER...LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S EAST OF I-65...WITH UPPER
30S/LOWER 40S OVER FAR INLAND SE MS/SW AL. WITH THE FRONT PASSING
THROUGH IN THE MORNING HOURS...HIGHS WILL BE REACHED VERY EARLY IN
THE DAY WITH TEMPS DROPPING THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE FRONT TONIGHT UNDER
A CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME. THE CHANCE FOR THUNDER LOOKS
LOW DUE TO A PERSISTENT MID LEVEL CAP AROUND 700 MB. MEANWHILE...A
BAND OF SHOWERS IS LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY THE ACTUALLY FRONT WITH
PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY. THE
SLOPE OF THE FRONT IS VERY SHALLOW...WITH THE 850 MB FRONT LOCATED
WELL TO THE NW OF THE SFC BOUNDARY. THEREFORE...THE BAND OF MORE
MODERATE RAIN IS LIKELY TO IMPACT THE FAR NW PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
850 MB FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE DROPPING INTO LOW TO MID 30S BY
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON ROUGHLY FROM WAYNESBORO AND BUTLER
NORTHWARD. THE CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE BRINGS THE WET BULB
FREEZING LINE INTO FAR NORTHERN CHOCTAW COUNTY DURING THIS
TIME...AND THIS WILL BE THE LOCATION THAT WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE
OF SEEING A PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN. FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...A
COLD RAIN IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED. WE WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR
TEMPS CLOSELY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. AT THIS POINT...WE DO NOT
PLAN TO ISSUE A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR CHOCTAW COUNTY AS
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH THAT THERE WILL BE ANY ICE ACCRUAL. WHILE
TEMPS NEAR FREEZING ARE POSSIBLE...THE COMBINATION OF VERY WARM
GROUND TEMPS (IT REACHED 80 TODAY) WITH THE GREATER INSOLATION
FACTOR OF THE MARCH SUN ANGLE WILL MAKE IT VERY HARD TO ACCRUE ICE
DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY.

AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...EXPECT AREAS OF DENSE FOG
TO REDEVELOP TONIGHT ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10 AND A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THOSE ZONES. PATCHY DENSE FOG IS
ALSO POSSIBLE FURTHER INLAND AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT CONFIDENCE IS
NOT AS HIGH. THE FOG WILL CLEAR WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

ONE LAST NOTE...IT WILL BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT ON THURSDAY WHICH WILL MAKE WIND CHILLS DROP INTO THE 20S/30S
OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WINDS CHILLS MAINLY IN THE 40S ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST. 34/JFB

THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WELL SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN
GULF AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FL PENINSULA THURSDAY NIGHT AS COLD
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ON THE ORDER OF 1039 MB BUILDS FROM NORTHEAST
TX INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI...TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS. DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD AND WILL
GENERALLY EXTEND FROM FAR SOUTHEAST MS AND SOUTHWEST AL THROUGH THE
NORTHWEST FL PANHANDLE DURING THE EVENING BEFORE MOSTLY PUSHING
OFFSHORE AND TO THE EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURE PROFILES REMAIN WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP A MENTION/SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST GENERALLY TO THE SOUTHEAST OF A
WIGGINS MS...MONROEVILLE AL....LUVERNE AL LINE THURSDAY EVENING
BEFORE ANY LINGERING LIGHT RAIN BECOMES FOCUSED OFFSHORE TO NEAR THE
IMMEDIATE NORTHWEST FL PANHANDLE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT. MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES ARE OTHERWISE EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING
FROM THE MID TO AROUND 30 OVER INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MS AND SOUTHWEST AL
TO THE MID TO UPPER 30S NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST REGION FRIDAY UNDERNEATH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...AND WE WILL
CONTINUE A DRY FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION. A GRADUAL DECREASE IN
CLOUD COVER IS ALSO EXPECTED. A BROAD COOL SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE VICINITY OF SOUTH AND EAST TX TO THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION FRIDAY. HIGHS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON SHOULD CONTINUE TO AVERAGE WELL BELOW NORMAL...WITH
READINGS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S INLAND TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S
NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. /21

.LONG TERM [SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...DRY ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AND EXPECT SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES.
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
SUNDAY...AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AND SPREAD ACROSS
SOUTH TX...THE NORTHWESTERN GULF AND NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST REGION AHEAD OF THIS NEXT FEATURE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MONDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO BRING RAIN CHANCES UPWARD INTO THE 30-40
PERCENT CHANCE RANGE ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. A
WET WEATHER PATTERN MAY CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK
AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS...THOUGH MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE DOES
HAVE SOME DISAGREEMENT ON TIMING OF THE NEXT WAVE OF DEEP MOISTURE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. WE LEFT A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND
UPWARD TOWARD NORMAL VALUES EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. /21

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z ISSUANCE...
DAYTIME HEATING HAS RESULTED IN STRONG MIXING AND A LIFTING OF CIGS
TO MVFR OR VFR LEVELS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. IFR/LIFR CIGS/VSBYS
WILL BE PREDOMINATE ALONG COASTAL AL/NW FL TONIGHT UNDER A CONTINUED
WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
AREA OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE AT THE
TAF SITES EXPECTED TO BE AROUND THE 15-16Z TIME FRAME. HOWEVER...IFR
TO LIFR CIGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN. 34/JFB

&&

.MARINE...AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE NEAR SHORE
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. WHILE CONDITIONS HAVE
IMPROVED SOME THIS AFTERNOON...DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY
REDEVELOP AFTER SUNSET. OTHERWISE...A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL PERSIST TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING WITH
A STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM 10AM THURSDAY UNTIL 10AM FRIDAY.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE NORTH. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS TO IMPACT
THE MARINE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF AND TRACKS NORTHEAST. THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE
LOW IS STILL UNCERTAIN. 34/JFB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      58  60  30  52  34 /  50  60  20  10  05
PENSACOLA   64  65  37  54  38 /  40  60  20  10  05
DESTIN      63  65  39  54  44 /  40  50  30  20  10
EVERGREEN   58  60  32  52  32 /  50  60  20  10  05
WAYNESBORO  42  44  25  48  27 /  60  70  10  05  05
CAMDEN      47  49  27  50  32 /  60  70  10  05  05
CRESTVIEW   64  66  36  56  36 /  50  60  20  10  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THURSDAY FOR ALZ063-064.

FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THURSDAY FOR FLZ002-004-006.

MS...NONE.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THURSDAY FOR GMZ630>635-650-
     655.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THURSDAY TO 10 AM CST FRIDAY FOR
     GMZ630>635-650-655-670-675.

&&

$$

34/21





000
FXUS64 KMOB 041825 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1225 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...DAYTIME MIXING AND HEATING HAS RESULTED IN THE DENSE FOG
LIFTING ALONG THE COASTAL LAND AREAS WHILE AREAS OF DENSE FOG
PERSIST OVER THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. HOWEVER...DENSE FOG IS
LIKELY TO REDEVELOP ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING
AND PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. AS A RESULT...A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR COASTAL AL/NW FL BEGINNING AT 6PM AND
CONTINUING THROUGH 10AM THURSDAY. THE DENSE FOG WILL COME TO AN END
AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY MORNING.

THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE MARINE ZONES HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL
10AM THURSDAY. WHILE THE FOG MAY HAVE LIFTED OVER A PORTION OF THE
COASTAL WATERS...IT WILL QUICKLY REDEVELOP THIS EVENING. 34/JFB

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z ISSUANCE.
DAYTIME HEATING HAS RESULTED IN STRONG MIXING AND A LIFTING OF CIGS
TO MVFR OR VFR LEVELS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH THE EXCEPTION
BEING ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS WHERE IFR CIGS PERSIST.
IFR/LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE PREDOMINATE ALONG COASTAL AL/NW FL
TONIGHT UNDER A CONTINUED WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW. A COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE AT THE TAF SITES EXPECTED TO BE AROUND THE 15-16Z
TIME FRAME. HOWEVER...IFR TO LIFR CIGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN. 34/JFB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1011 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015/

UPDATE...THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT AREAS OF DENSE
ADVECTION FOG PERSIST OVER THE NEAR SHORE COASTAL WATERS AS WELL AS
PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL FLORIDA PANHANDLE. AS A RESULT...WE HAVE
EXTENDED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS UNTIL
NOON. CONTINUED BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING AND MIXING THROUGH THE DAY IS
EXPECTED TO MIX OUT THE FOG...TO AT LEAST PATCHY DENSE AREAS OF FOG
VERSUS MORE WIDESPREAD THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR OBS
CLOSELY. HOWEVER...EVEN IF THERE IS A REPRIEVE FROM THE FOG THIS
AFTERNOON...IT WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP THIS EVENING ACROSS THE MARINE
AND ADJACENT COASTAL LAND AREAS AND A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL LIKELY
BE REQUIRED FOR TONIGHT.

REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH HIGHS INLAND APPROACHING 80
DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER ALONG THE COAST
DUE TO THE COOLER MARINE LAYER. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE TODAY IN THE INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME.
HOWEVER...CHANCES FOR A THUNDERSTORM LOOK PRETTY LOW WITH PRONOUNCED
CAPPING STILL PRESENT AROUND 700 MB. WILL REMOVE THUNDER FROM THE
FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON. 34/JFB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 557 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015/

SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...BETTER COVERAGE OF FOG REMAINS
CLOSER TO THE COAST THIS MORNING GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-
10 CORRIDOR STRETCHING OVER THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS OUT TO ABOUT 20
NM. WITH BETTER MIXING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER TODAY AND TONIGHT THE
BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD FOG WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOSER THE COAST
DUE TO BETTER MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE LOWER LEVELS. OTHERWISE...FOR
TODAY SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY EARLY TODAY FOLLOWED BY A MIX
OF CLOUDS AND SUN OVER THE LOWER HALF OF THE CWFA DURING THE
AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY BETTER CLOUDS...RAIN AND FOG OVERNIGHT. RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE TODAY AND TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN
OCCURRING OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA LATE TODAY
AND OVERNIGHT. WITH WEAK INSTABILITY AND FORCING IN THE MID LEVELS
HAVE ALSO MENTIONED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OF
PRECIP LATER TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT. WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY AND
FORCING IN THE MID LEVELS STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
IN NOT EXPECTED. BY LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THU MORNING THE STRONG
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE CWFA PUSHING THE HEAVIER SHOWERS SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE CWFA. WILL ALSO MENTION FOG AGAIN FOR THIS EVENING
KEEPING THE COVERAGE MOSTLY PATCHY OVER LAND OCCURRING MOSTLY OVER
COASTAL SECTIONS THROUGH EARLY THU MORNING. AS FOR TEMPS WILL LEAN
TOWARDS THE WARMER MAVMOS THROUGH TONIGHT...ADDING A DEGREE OR TWO
FOR MOST INLAND AREAS FOR DAYTIME HIGHS WHICH RESULTS IN HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 70S NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. TONIGHTS LOWS WILL BE A LITTLE
MORE DIFFICULT AS FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...LOWS RANGING FROM
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S FOR THE NORTHWEST HALF AND THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S TO THE SOUTHEAST. 32/EE

[THURSDAY AND FRIDAY]...THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING
THE I-65 CORRIDOR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...AND MOVE SOUTHEAST OFF
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST BEFORE NOON. MAINTAINED LIKELY RAIN ACROSS
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FOR THURSDAY MORNING AS ONGOING LIGHT RAIN
NORTHWEST OF I-65 AROUND DAYBREAK SPREADS SOUTHEAST WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE COLD FRONT. BY THE AFTERNOON...EXPECT A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN
AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

MODEL SOUNDING ANALYSIS AND FORECAST SURFACE TEMPERATURES ACROSS
WAYNE COUNTY IN MISSISSIPPI AND CHOCTAW COUNTY IN ALABAMA FAVOR A
MIX OF RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN TO BEGIN AROUND 10 AM THAT WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS SURFACE SUB-FREEZING
TEMPERATURES WORK THEIR WAY INTO THOSE AREAS. A LIGHT ACCUMULATION
MAY OCCUR...SO STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES TO THIS SITUATION. THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD JUST SEE A VERY COLD RAIN ON
THURSDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL HOVER ALONG THE COASTAL
SECTIONS OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES STAYING ABOVE FREEZING.

THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO THROUGH THE REMAINDER ON THE SHORT TERM FORECAST...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION. IT WILL BE DRY ON FRIDAY WITH
EXCEPTION OF A FEW PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN HUGGING THE COAST. DRY
FRIDAY NIGHT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL OCCUR NEAR DAYBREAK AND THEN FALL
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SO HIGHS EARLY IN THE MORNING WILL RANGE FROM 40
TO 57 DEGREES NORTHWEST OF I-65...AND FROM 57 TO 64 DEGREES AND DROP
ABOUT 10 DEGREES BY LATE AFTERNOON. LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO MID 30S NORTHWEST OF I-65...WITH MID
TO UPPER 30S SOUTHEAST OF I-65. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL ONLY REACH THE
MID 40S TO LOWER 50S NORTHWEST OF I-65...AND THE LOWER TO MID 50S
SOUTHEAST OF I-65. /22

LONG TERM [SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]...IT WILL BE COOL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT AND
WITH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINDER OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. WHILE IT
WILL BE DRY ON SATURDAY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
WILL RE-ENTER THE PICTURE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS A SERIES
OF WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE AND SHORTWAVES EXIT THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
STATES AND TRAVERSE THE REGION. THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE
MORE AVAILABLE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY MANAGE TO REACH THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S
THROUGH MONDAY. THE LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
MID 30S TO MID 40S AND THEN STEADILY CLIMB INTO THE LOWER INTO THE
40S FOR BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS. /22

AVIATION...03.12Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF CYCLE...MOSTLY LIFR TO IFR
VISIBILITIES AND CIGS THROUGH 04.17Z...THEN MVFR TO VFR CIGS IN THE
AFTERNOON...  FOLLOWED BY LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. EXPECT FOG TO REDEVELOP
AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALSO OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THU MORNING. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH AT 6 TO 12 KNOTS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PS. 32/EE

 &&

MARINE...AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT LOCAL BAYS AND
SOUNDS AND THE NEAR SHORE GULF WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. A
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WIND FLOW WILL OTHERWISE
CONTINUE OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING AHEAD OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF THURSDAY MORNING...WITH
STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATE FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY AS A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTH. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE LIKELY ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT
IN THE WAKE OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT. 32/EE

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST THURSDAY
     FOR ALZ063-064.

FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST THURSDAY
     FOR FLZ002-004-006.

MS...NONE.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THURSDAY FOR GMZ630>635-650-
     655.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 041825 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1225 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...DAYTIME MIXING AND HEATING HAS RESULTED IN THE DENSE FOG
LIFTING ALONG THE COASTAL LAND AREAS WHILE AREAS OF DENSE FOG
PERSIST OVER THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. HOWEVER...DENSE FOG IS
LIKELY TO REDEVELOP ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING
AND PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. AS A RESULT...A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR COASTAL AL/NW FL BEGINNING AT 6PM AND
CONTINUING THROUGH 10AM THURSDAY. THE DENSE FOG WILL COME TO AN END
AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY MORNING.

THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE MARINE ZONES HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL
10AM THURSDAY. WHILE THE FOG MAY HAVE LIFTED OVER A PORTION OF THE
COASTAL WATERS...IT WILL QUICKLY REDEVELOP THIS EVENING. 34/JFB

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z ISSUANCE.
DAYTIME HEATING HAS RESULTED IN STRONG MIXING AND A LIFTING OF CIGS
TO MVFR OR VFR LEVELS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH THE EXCEPTION
BEING ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS WHERE IFR CIGS PERSIST.
IFR/LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE PREDOMINATE ALONG COASTAL AL/NW FL
TONIGHT UNDER A CONTINUED WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW. A COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE AT THE TAF SITES EXPECTED TO BE AROUND THE 15-16Z
TIME FRAME. HOWEVER...IFR TO LIFR CIGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN. 34/JFB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1011 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015/

UPDATE...THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT AREAS OF DENSE
ADVECTION FOG PERSIST OVER THE NEAR SHORE COASTAL WATERS AS WELL AS
PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL FLORIDA PANHANDLE. AS A RESULT...WE HAVE
EXTENDED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS UNTIL
NOON. CONTINUED BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING AND MIXING THROUGH THE DAY IS
EXPECTED TO MIX OUT THE FOG...TO AT LEAST PATCHY DENSE AREAS OF FOG
VERSUS MORE WIDESPREAD THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR OBS
CLOSELY. HOWEVER...EVEN IF THERE IS A REPRIEVE FROM THE FOG THIS
AFTERNOON...IT WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP THIS EVENING ACROSS THE MARINE
AND ADJACENT COASTAL LAND AREAS AND A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL LIKELY
BE REQUIRED FOR TONIGHT.

REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH HIGHS INLAND APPROACHING 80
DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER ALONG THE COAST
DUE TO THE COOLER MARINE LAYER. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE TODAY IN THE INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME.
HOWEVER...CHANCES FOR A THUNDERSTORM LOOK PRETTY LOW WITH PRONOUNCED
CAPPING STILL PRESENT AROUND 700 MB. WILL REMOVE THUNDER FROM THE
FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON. 34/JFB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 557 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015/

SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...BETTER COVERAGE OF FOG REMAINS
CLOSER TO THE COAST THIS MORNING GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-
10 CORRIDOR STRETCHING OVER THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS OUT TO ABOUT 20
NM. WITH BETTER MIXING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER TODAY AND TONIGHT THE
BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD FOG WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOSER THE COAST
DUE TO BETTER MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE LOWER LEVELS. OTHERWISE...FOR
TODAY SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY EARLY TODAY FOLLOWED BY A MIX
OF CLOUDS AND SUN OVER THE LOWER HALF OF THE CWFA DURING THE
AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY BETTER CLOUDS...RAIN AND FOG OVERNIGHT. RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE TODAY AND TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN
OCCURRING OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA LATE TODAY
AND OVERNIGHT. WITH WEAK INSTABILITY AND FORCING IN THE MID LEVELS
HAVE ALSO MENTIONED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OF
PRECIP LATER TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT. WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY AND
FORCING IN THE MID LEVELS STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
IN NOT EXPECTED. BY LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THU MORNING THE STRONG
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE CWFA PUSHING THE HEAVIER SHOWERS SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE CWFA. WILL ALSO MENTION FOG AGAIN FOR THIS EVENING
KEEPING THE COVERAGE MOSTLY PATCHY OVER LAND OCCURRING MOSTLY OVER
COASTAL SECTIONS THROUGH EARLY THU MORNING. AS FOR TEMPS WILL LEAN
TOWARDS THE WARMER MAVMOS THROUGH TONIGHT...ADDING A DEGREE OR TWO
FOR MOST INLAND AREAS FOR DAYTIME HIGHS WHICH RESULTS IN HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 70S NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. TONIGHTS LOWS WILL BE A LITTLE
MORE DIFFICULT AS FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...LOWS RANGING FROM
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S FOR THE NORTHWEST HALF AND THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S TO THE SOUTHEAST. 32/EE

[THURSDAY AND FRIDAY]...THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING
THE I-65 CORRIDOR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...AND MOVE SOUTHEAST OFF
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST BEFORE NOON. MAINTAINED LIKELY RAIN ACROSS
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FOR THURSDAY MORNING AS ONGOING LIGHT RAIN
NORTHWEST OF I-65 AROUND DAYBREAK SPREADS SOUTHEAST WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE COLD FRONT. BY THE AFTERNOON...EXPECT A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN
AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

MODEL SOUNDING ANALYSIS AND FORECAST SURFACE TEMPERATURES ACROSS
WAYNE COUNTY IN MISSISSIPPI AND CHOCTAW COUNTY IN ALABAMA FAVOR A
MIX OF RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN TO BEGIN AROUND 10 AM THAT WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS SURFACE SUB-FREEZING
TEMPERATURES WORK THEIR WAY INTO THOSE AREAS. A LIGHT ACCUMULATION
MAY OCCUR...SO STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES TO THIS SITUATION. THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD JUST SEE A VERY COLD RAIN ON
THURSDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL HOVER ALONG THE COASTAL
SECTIONS OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES STAYING ABOVE FREEZING.

THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO THROUGH THE REMAINDER ON THE SHORT TERM FORECAST...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION. IT WILL BE DRY ON FRIDAY WITH
EXCEPTION OF A FEW PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN HUGGING THE COAST. DRY
FRIDAY NIGHT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL OCCUR NEAR DAYBREAK AND THEN FALL
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SO HIGHS EARLY IN THE MORNING WILL RANGE FROM 40
TO 57 DEGREES NORTHWEST OF I-65...AND FROM 57 TO 64 DEGREES AND DROP
ABOUT 10 DEGREES BY LATE AFTERNOON. LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO MID 30S NORTHWEST OF I-65...WITH MID
TO UPPER 30S SOUTHEAST OF I-65. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL ONLY REACH THE
MID 40S TO LOWER 50S NORTHWEST OF I-65...AND THE LOWER TO MID 50S
SOUTHEAST OF I-65. /22

LONG TERM [SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]...IT WILL BE COOL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT AND
WITH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINDER OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. WHILE IT
WILL BE DRY ON SATURDAY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
WILL RE-ENTER THE PICTURE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS A SERIES
OF WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE AND SHORTWAVES EXIT THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
STATES AND TRAVERSE THE REGION. THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE
MORE AVAILABLE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY MANAGE TO REACH THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S
THROUGH MONDAY. THE LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
MID 30S TO MID 40S AND THEN STEADILY CLIMB INTO THE LOWER INTO THE
40S FOR BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS. /22

AVIATION...03.12Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF CYCLE...MOSTLY LIFR TO IFR
VISIBILITIES AND CIGS THROUGH 04.17Z...THEN MVFR TO VFR CIGS IN THE
AFTERNOON...  FOLLOWED BY LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. EXPECT FOG TO REDEVELOP
AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALSO OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THU MORNING. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH AT 6 TO 12 KNOTS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PS. 32/EE

 &&

MARINE...AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT LOCAL BAYS AND
SOUNDS AND THE NEAR SHORE GULF WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. A
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WIND FLOW WILL OTHERWISE
CONTINUE OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING AHEAD OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF THURSDAY MORNING...WITH
STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATE FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY AS A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTH. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE LIKELY ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT
IN THE WAKE OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT. 32/EE

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST THURSDAY
     FOR ALZ063-064.

FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST THURSDAY
     FOR FLZ002-004-006.

MS...NONE.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THURSDAY FOR GMZ630>635-650-
     655.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMOB 041611 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1011 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT AREAS OF DENSE
ADVECTION FOG PERSIST OVER THE NEAR SHORE COASTAL WATERS AS WELL AS
PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL FLORIDA PANHANDLE. AS A RESULT...WE HAVE
EXTENDED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS UNTIL
NOON. CONTINUED BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING AND MIXING THROUGH THE DAY IS
EXPECTED TO MIX OUT THE FOG...TO AT LEAST PATCHY DENSE AREAS OF FOG
VERSUS MORE WIDESPREAD THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR OBS
CLOSELY. HOWEVER...EVEN IF THERE IS A REPRIEVE FROM THE FOG THIS
AFTERNOON...IT WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP THIS EVENING ACROSS THE MARINE
AND ADJACENT COASTAL LAND AREAS AND A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL LIKELY
BE REQUIRED FOR TONIGHT.

REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH HIGHS INLAND APPROACHING 80
DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER ALONG THE COAST
DUE TO THE COOLER MARINE LAYER. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE TODAY IN THE INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME.
HOWEVER...CHANCES FOR A THUNDERSTORM LOOK PRETTY LOW WITH PRONOUNCED
CAPPING STILL PRESENT AROUND 700 MB. WILL REMOVE THUNDER FROM THE
FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON. 34/JFB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 557 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015/

SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...BETTER COVERAGE OF FOG REMAINS
CLOSER TO THE COAST THIS MORNING GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-
10 CORRIDOR STRETCHING OVER THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS OUT TO ABOUT 20
NM. WITH BETTER MIXING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER TODAY AND TONIGHT THE
BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD FOG WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOSER THE COAST
DUE TO BETTER MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE LOWER LEVELS. OTHERWISE...FOR
TODAY SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY EARLY TODAY FOLLOWED BY A MIX
OF CLOUDS AND SUN OVER THE LOWER HALF OF THE CWFA DURING THE
AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY BETTER CLOUDS...RAIN AND FOG OVERNIGHT. RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE TODAY AND TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN
OCCURRING OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA LATE TODAY
AND OVERNIGHT. WITH WEAK INSTABILITY AND FORCING IN THE MID LEVELS
HAVE ALSO MENTIONED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OF
PRECIP LATER TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT. WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY AND
FORCING IN THE MID LEVELS STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
IN NOT EXPECTED. BY LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THU MORNING THE STRONG
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE CWFA PUSHING THE HEAVIER SHOWERS SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE CWFA. WILL ALSO MENTION FOG AGAIN FOR THIS EVENING
KEEPING THE COVERAGE MOSTLY PATCHY OVER LAND OCCURRING MOSTLY OVER
COASTAL SECTIONS THROUGH EARLY THU MORNING. AS FOR TEMPS WILL LEAN
TOWARDS THE WARMER MAVMOS THROUGH TONIGHT...ADDING A DEGREE OR TWO
FOR MOST INLAND AREAS FOR DAYTIME HIGHS WHICH RESULTS IN HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 70S NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. TONIGHTS LOWS WILL BE A LITTLE
MORE DIFFICULT AS FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...LOWS RANGING FROM
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S FOR THE NORTHWEST HALF AND THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S TO THE SOUTHEAST. 32/EE

[THURSDAY AND FRIDAY]...THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING
THE I-65 CORRIDOR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...AND MOVE SOUTHEAST OFF
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST BEFORE NOON. MAINTAINED LIKELY RAIN ACROSS
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FOR THURSDAY MORNING AS ONGOING LIGHT RAIN
NORTHWEST OF I-65 AROUND DAYBREAK SPREADS SOUTHEAST WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE COLD FRONT. BY THE AFTERNOON...EXPECT A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN
AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

MODEL SOUNDING ANALYSIS AND FORECAST SURFACE TEMPERATURES ACROSS
WAYNE COUNTY IN MISSISSIPPI AND CHOCTAW COUNTY IN ALABAMA FAVOR A
MIX OF RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN TO BEGIN AROUND 10 AM THAT WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS SURFACE SUB-FREEZING
TEMPERATURES WORK THEIR WAY INTO THOSE AREAS. A LIGHT ACCUMULATION
MAY OCCUR...SO STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES TO THIS SITUATION. THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD JUST SEE A VERY COLD RAIN ON
THURSDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL HOVER ALONG THE COASTAL
SECTIONS OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES STAYING ABOVE FREEZING.

THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO THROUGH THE REMAINDER ON THE SHORT TERM FORECAST...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION. IT WILL BE DRY ON FRIDAY WITH
EXCEPTION OF A FEW PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN HUGGING THE COAST. DRY
FRIDAY NIGHT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL OCCUR NEAR DAYBREAK AND THEN FALL
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SO HIGHS EARLY IN THE MORNING WILL RANGE FROM 40
TO 57 DEGREES NORTHWEST OF I-65...AND FROM 57 TO 64 DEGREES AND DROP
ABOUT 10 DEGREES BY LATE AFTERNOON. LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO MID 30S NORTHWEST OF I-65...WITH MID
TO UPPER 30S SOUTHEAST OF I-65. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL ONLY REACH THE
MID 40S TO LOWER 50S NORTHWEST OF I-65...AND THE LOWER TO MID 50S
SOUTHEAST OF I-65. /22

LONG TERM [SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]...IT WILL BE COOL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT AND
WITH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINDER OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. WHILE IT
WILL BE DRY ON SATURDAY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
WILL RE-ENTER THE PICTURE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS A SERIES
OF WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE AND SHORTWAVES EXIT THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
STATES AND TRAVERSE THE REGION. THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE
MORE AVAILABLE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY MANAGE TO REACH THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S
THROUGH MONDAY. THE LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
MID 30S TO MID 40S AND THEN STEADILY CLIMB INTO THE LOWER INTO THE
40S FOR BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS. /22

AVIATION...03.12Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF CYCLE...MOSTLY LIFR TO IFR
VISIBILITIES AND CIGS THROUGH 04.17Z...THEN MVFR TO VFR CIGS IN THE
AFTERNOON...  FOLLOWED BY LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. EXPECT FOG TO REDEVELOP
AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALSO OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THU MORNING. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH AT 6 TO 12 KNOTS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PS. 32/EE

 &&

MARINE...AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT LOCAL BAYS AND
SOUNDS AND THE NEAR SHORE GULF WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. A
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WIND FLOW WILL OTHERWISE
CONTINUE OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING AHEAD OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF THURSDAY MORNING...WITH
STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATE FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY AS A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTH. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE LIKELY ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT
IN THE WAKE OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT. 32/EE

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR FLZ002-004-006.

MS...NONE.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR GMZ630>635-650-655.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 041611 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1011 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT AREAS OF DENSE
ADVECTION FOG PERSIST OVER THE NEAR SHORE COASTAL WATERS AS WELL AS
PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL FLORIDA PANHANDLE. AS A RESULT...WE HAVE
EXTENDED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS UNTIL
NOON. CONTINUED BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING AND MIXING THROUGH THE DAY IS
EXPECTED TO MIX OUT THE FOG...TO AT LEAST PATCHY DENSE AREAS OF FOG
VERSUS MORE WIDESPREAD THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR OBS
CLOSELY. HOWEVER...EVEN IF THERE IS A REPRIEVE FROM THE FOG THIS
AFTERNOON...IT WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP THIS EVENING ACROSS THE MARINE
AND ADJACENT COASTAL LAND AREAS AND A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL LIKELY
BE REQUIRED FOR TONIGHT.

REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH HIGHS INLAND APPROACHING 80
DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER ALONG THE COAST
DUE TO THE COOLER MARINE LAYER. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE TODAY IN THE INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME.
HOWEVER...CHANCES FOR A THUNDERSTORM LOOK PRETTY LOW WITH PRONOUNCED
CAPPING STILL PRESENT AROUND 700 MB. WILL REMOVE THUNDER FROM THE
FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON. 34/JFB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 557 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015/

SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...BETTER COVERAGE OF FOG REMAINS
CLOSER TO THE COAST THIS MORNING GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-
10 CORRIDOR STRETCHING OVER THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS OUT TO ABOUT 20
NM. WITH BETTER MIXING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER TODAY AND TONIGHT THE
BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD FOG WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOSER THE COAST
DUE TO BETTER MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE LOWER LEVELS. OTHERWISE...FOR
TODAY SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY EARLY TODAY FOLLOWED BY A MIX
OF CLOUDS AND SUN OVER THE LOWER HALF OF THE CWFA DURING THE
AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY BETTER CLOUDS...RAIN AND FOG OVERNIGHT. RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE TODAY AND TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN
OCCURRING OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA LATE TODAY
AND OVERNIGHT. WITH WEAK INSTABILITY AND FORCING IN THE MID LEVELS
HAVE ALSO MENTIONED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OF
PRECIP LATER TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT. WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY AND
FORCING IN THE MID LEVELS STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
IN NOT EXPECTED. BY LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THU MORNING THE STRONG
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE CWFA PUSHING THE HEAVIER SHOWERS SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE CWFA. WILL ALSO MENTION FOG AGAIN FOR THIS EVENING
KEEPING THE COVERAGE MOSTLY PATCHY OVER LAND OCCURRING MOSTLY OVER
COASTAL SECTIONS THROUGH EARLY THU MORNING. AS FOR TEMPS WILL LEAN
TOWARDS THE WARMER MAVMOS THROUGH TONIGHT...ADDING A DEGREE OR TWO
FOR MOST INLAND AREAS FOR DAYTIME HIGHS WHICH RESULTS IN HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 70S NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. TONIGHTS LOWS WILL BE A LITTLE
MORE DIFFICULT AS FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...LOWS RANGING FROM
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S FOR THE NORTHWEST HALF AND THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S TO THE SOUTHEAST. 32/EE

[THURSDAY AND FRIDAY]...THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING
THE I-65 CORRIDOR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...AND MOVE SOUTHEAST OFF
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST BEFORE NOON. MAINTAINED LIKELY RAIN ACROSS
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FOR THURSDAY MORNING AS ONGOING LIGHT RAIN
NORTHWEST OF I-65 AROUND DAYBREAK SPREADS SOUTHEAST WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE COLD FRONT. BY THE AFTERNOON...EXPECT A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN
AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

MODEL SOUNDING ANALYSIS AND FORECAST SURFACE TEMPERATURES ACROSS
WAYNE COUNTY IN MISSISSIPPI AND CHOCTAW COUNTY IN ALABAMA FAVOR A
MIX OF RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN TO BEGIN AROUND 10 AM THAT WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS SURFACE SUB-FREEZING
TEMPERATURES WORK THEIR WAY INTO THOSE AREAS. A LIGHT ACCUMULATION
MAY OCCUR...SO STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES TO THIS SITUATION. THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD JUST SEE A VERY COLD RAIN ON
THURSDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL HOVER ALONG THE COASTAL
SECTIONS OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES STAYING ABOVE FREEZING.

THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO THROUGH THE REMAINDER ON THE SHORT TERM FORECAST...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION. IT WILL BE DRY ON FRIDAY WITH
EXCEPTION OF A FEW PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN HUGGING THE COAST. DRY
FRIDAY NIGHT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL OCCUR NEAR DAYBREAK AND THEN FALL
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SO HIGHS EARLY IN THE MORNING WILL RANGE FROM 40
TO 57 DEGREES NORTHWEST OF I-65...AND FROM 57 TO 64 DEGREES AND DROP
ABOUT 10 DEGREES BY LATE AFTERNOON. LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO MID 30S NORTHWEST OF I-65...WITH MID
TO UPPER 30S SOUTHEAST OF I-65. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL ONLY REACH THE
MID 40S TO LOWER 50S NORTHWEST OF I-65...AND THE LOWER TO MID 50S
SOUTHEAST OF I-65. /22

LONG TERM [SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]...IT WILL BE COOL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT AND
WITH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINDER OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. WHILE IT
WILL BE DRY ON SATURDAY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
WILL RE-ENTER THE PICTURE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS A SERIES
OF WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE AND SHORTWAVES EXIT THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
STATES AND TRAVERSE THE REGION. THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE
MORE AVAILABLE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY MANAGE TO REACH THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S
THROUGH MONDAY. THE LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
MID 30S TO MID 40S AND THEN STEADILY CLIMB INTO THE LOWER INTO THE
40S FOR BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS. /22

AVIATION...03.12Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF CYCLE...MOSTLY LIFR TO IFR
VISIBILITIES AND CIGS THROUGH 04.17Z...THEN MVFR TO VFR CIGS IN THE
AFTERNOON...  FOLLOWED BY LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. EXPECT FOG TO REDEVELOP
AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALSO OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THU MORNING. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH AT 6 TO 12 KNOTS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PS. 32/EE

 &&

MARINE...AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT LOCAL BAYS AND
SOUNDS AND THE NEAR SHORE GULF WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. A
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WIND FLOW WILL OTHERWISE
CONTINUE OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING AHEAD OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF THURSDAY MORNING...WITH
STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATE FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY AS A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTH. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE LIKELY ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT
IN THE WAKE OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT. 32/EE

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR FLZ002-004-006.

MS...NONE.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR GMZ630>635-650-655.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMOB 041157
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
557 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...BETTER COVERAGE OF FOG REMAINS
CLOSER TO THE COAST THIS MORNING GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-
10 CORRIDOR STRETCHING OVER THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS OUT TO ABOUT 20
NM. WITH BETTER MIXING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER TODAY AND TONIGHT THE
BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD FOG WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOSER THE COAST
DUE TO BETTER MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE LOWER LEVELS. OTHERWISE...FOR
TODAY SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY EARLY TODAY FOLLOWED BY A MIX
OF CLOUDS AND SUN OVER THE LOWER HALF OF THE CWFA DURING THE
AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY BETTER CLOUDS...RAIN AND FOG OVERNIGHT. RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE TODAY AND TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN
OCCURRING OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA LATE TODAY
AND OVERNIGHT. WITH WEAK INSTABILITY AND FORCING IN THE MID LEVELS
HAVE ALSO MENTIONED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OF
PRECIP LATER TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT. WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY AND
FORCING IN THE MID LEVELS STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
IN NOT EXPECTED. BY LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THU MORNING THE STRONG
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE CWFA PUSHING THE HEAVIER SHOWERS SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE CWFA. WILL ALSO MENTION FOG AGAIN FOR THIS EVENING
KEEPING THE COVERAGE MOSTLY PATCHY OVER LAND OCCURRING MOSTLY OVER
COASTAL SECTIONS THROUGH EARLY THU MORNING. AS FOR TEMPS WILL LEAN
TOWARDS THE WARMER MAVMOS THROUGH TONIGHT...ADDING A DEGREE OR TWO
FOR MOST INLAND AREAS FOR DAYTIME HIGHS WHICH RESULTS IN HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 70S NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. TONIGHTS LOWS WILL BE A LITTLE
MORE DIFFICULT AS FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...LOWS RANGING FROM
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S FOR THE NORTHWEST HALF AND THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S TO THE SOUTHEAST. 32/EE

[THURSDAY AND FRIDAY]...THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING
THE I-65 CORRIDOR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...AND MOVE SOUTHEAST OFF
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST BEFORE NOON. MAINTAINED LIKELY RAIN ACROSS
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FOR THURSDAY MORNING AS ONGOING LIGHT RAIN
NORTHWEST OF I-65 AROUND DAYBREAK SPREADS SOUTHEAST WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE COLD FRONT. BY THE AFTERNOON...EXPECT A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN
AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

MODEL SOUNDING ANALYSIS AND FORECAST SURFACE TEMPERATURES ACROSS
WAYNE COUNTY IN MISSISSIPPI AND CHOCTAW COUNTY IN ALABAMA FAVOR A
MIX OF RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN TO BEGIN AROUND 10 AM THAT WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS SURFACE SUB-FREEZING
TEMPERATURES WORK THEIR WAY INTO THOSE AREAS. A LIGHT ACCUMULATION
MAY OCCUR...SO STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES TO THIS SITUATION. THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD JUST SEE A VERY COLD RAIN ON
THURSDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL HOVER ALONG THE COASTAL
SECTIONS OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES STAYING ABOVE FREEZING.

THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO THROUGH THE REMAINDER ON THE SHORT TERM FORECAST...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION. IT WILL BE DRY ON FRIDAY WITH
EXCEPTION OF A FEW PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN HUGGING THE COAST. DRY
FRIDAY NIGHT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL OCCUR NEAR DAYBREAK AND THEN FALL
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SO HIGHS EARLY IN THE MORNING WILL RANGE FROM 40
TO 57 DEGREES NORTHWEST OF I-65...AND FROM 57 TO 64 DEGREES AND DROP
ABOUT 10 DEGREES BY LATE AFTERNOON. LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO MID 30S NORTHWEST OF I-65...WITH MID
TO UPPER 30S SOUTHEAST OF I-65. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL ONLY REACH THE
MID 40S TO LOWER 50S NORTHWEST OF I-65...AND THE LOWER TO MID 50S
SOUTHEAST OF I-65. /22

&&

.LONG TERM [SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]...IT WILL BE COOL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT AND
WITH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINDER OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. WHILE IT
WILL BE DRY ON SATURDAY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
WILL RE-ENTER THE PICTURE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS A SERIES
OF WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE AND SHORTWAVES EXIT THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
STATES AND TRAVERSE THE REGION. THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE
MORE AVAILABLE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY MANAGE TO REACH THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S
THROUGH MONDAY. THE LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
MID 30S TO MID 40S AND THEN STEADILY CLIMB INTO THE LOWER INTO THE
40S FOR BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS. /22

&&

.AVIATION...03.12Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF CYCLE...MOSTLY LIFR TO IFR
VISIBILITIES AND CIGS THROUGH 04.17Z...THEN MVFR TO VFR CIGS IN THE
AFTERNOON...  FOLLOWED BY LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. EXPECT FOG TO REDEVELOP
AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALSO OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THU MORNING. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH AT 6 TO 12 KNOTS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PS. 32/EE

 &&

.MARINE...AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT LOCAL BAYS AND
SOUNDS AND THE NEAR SHORE GULF WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. A
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WIND FLOW WILL OTHERWISE
CONTINUE OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING AHEAD OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF THURSDAY MORNING...WITH
STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATE FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY AS A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTH. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE LIKELY ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT
IN THE WAKE OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      80  50  58  32  52 /  30  50  70  20  05
PENSACOLA   76  61  62  38  54 /  20  40  60  20  20
DESTIN      69  60  64  40  54 /  20  30  60  20  20
EVERGREEN   81  55  56  33  52 /  30  60  70  05  05
WAYNESBORO  80  41  42  26  48 /  30  60  70  05  05
CAMDEN      80  48  49  28  50 /  20  70  70  05  05
CRESTVIEW   81  61  62  37  56 /  20  40  60  20  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR ALZ063-064.

FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR FLZ002-004-
     006.

MS...NONE.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR GMZ630>635-
     650-655.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMOB 041157
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
557 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...BETTER COVERAGE OF FOG REMAINS
CLOSER TO THE COAST THIS MORNING GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-
10 CORRIDOR STRETCHING OVER THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS OUT TO ABOUT 20
NM. WITH BETTER MIXING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER TODAY AND TONIGHT THE
BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD FOG WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOSER THE COAST
DUE TO BETTER MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE LOWER LEVELS. OTHERWISE...FOR
TODAY SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY EARLY TODAY FOLLOWED BY A MIX
OF CLOUDS AND SUN OVER THE LOWER HALF OF THE CWFA DURING THE
AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY BETTER CLOUDS...RAIN AND FOG OVERNIGHT. RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE TODAY AND TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN
OCCURRING OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA LATE TODAY
AND OVERNIGHT. WITH WEAK INSTABILITY AND FORCING IN THE MID LEVELS
HAVE ALSO MENTIONED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OF
PRECIP LATER TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT. WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY AND
FORCING IN THE MID LEVELS STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
IN NOT EXPECTED. BY LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THU MORNING THE STRONG
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE CWFA PUSHING THE HEAVIER SHOWERS SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE CWFA. WILL ALSO MENTION FOG AGAIN FOR THIS EVENING
KEEPING THE COVERAGE MOSTLY PATCHY OVER LAND OCCURRING MOSTLY OVER
COASTAL SECTIONS THROUGH EARLY THU MORNING. AS FOR TEMPS WILL LEAN
TOWARDS THE WARMER MAVMOS THROUGH TONIGHT...ADDING A DEGREE OR TWO
FOR MOST INLAND AREAS FOR DAYTIME HIGHS WHICH RESULTS IN HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 70S NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. TONIGHTS LOWS WILL BE A LITTLE
MORE DIFFICULT AS FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...LOWS RANGING FROM
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S FOR THE NORTHWEST HALF AND THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S TO THE SOUTHEAST. 32/EE

[THURSDAY AND FRIDAY]...THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING
THE I-65 CORRIDOR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...AND MOVE SOUTHEAST OFF
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST BEFORE NOON. MAINTAINED LIKELY RAIN ACROSS
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FOR THURSDAY MORNING AS ONGOING LIGHT RAIN
NORTHWEST OF I-65 AROUND DAYBREAK SPREADS SOUTHEAST WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE COLD FRONT. BY THE AFTERNOON...EXPECT A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN
AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

MODEL SOUNDING ANALYSIS AND FORECAST SURFACE TEMPERATURES ACROSS
WAYNE COUNTY IN MISSISSIPPI AND CHOCTAW COUNTY IN ALABAMA FAVOR A
MIX OF RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN TO BEGIN AROUND 10 AM THAT WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS SURFACE SUB-FREEZING
TEMPERATURES WORK THEIR WAY INTO THOSE AREAS. A LIGHT ACCUMULATION
MAY OCCUR...SO STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES TO THIS SITUATION. THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD JUST SEE A VERY COLD RAIN ON
THURSDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL HOVER ALONG THE COASTAL
SECTIONS OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES STAYING ABOVE FREEZING.

THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO THROUGH THE REMAINDER ON THE SHORT TERM FORECAST...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION. IT WILL BE DRY ON FRIDAY WITH
EXCEPTION OF A FEW PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN HUGGING THE COAST. DRY
FRIDAY NIGHT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL OCCUR NEAR DAYBREAK AND THEN FALL
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SO HIGHS EARLY IN THE MORNING WILL RANGE FROM 40
TO 57 DEGREES NORTHWEST OF I-65...AND FROM 57 TO 64 DEGREES AND DROP
ABOUT 10 DEGREES BY LATE AFTERNOON. LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO MID 30S NORTHWEST OF I-65...WITH MID
TO UPPER 30S SOUTHEAST OF I-65. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL ONLY REACH THE
MID 40S TO LOWER 50S NORTHWEST OF I-65...AND THE LOWER TO MID 50S
SOUTHEAST OF I-65. /22

&&

.LONG TERM [SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]...IT WILL BE COOL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT AND
WITH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINDER OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. WHILE IT
WILL BE DRY ON SATURDAY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
WILL RE-ENTER THE PICTURE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS A SERIES
OF WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE AND SHORTWAVES EXIT THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
STATES AND TRAVERSE THE REGION. THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE
MORE AVAILABLE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY MANAGE TO REACH THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S
THROUGH MONDAY. THE LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
MID 30S TO MID 40S AND THEN STEADILY CLIMB INTO THE LOWER INTO THE
40S FOR BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS. /22

&&

.AVIATION...03.12Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF CYCLE...MOSTLY LIFR TO IFR
VISIBILITIES AND CIGS THROUGH 04.17Z...THEN MVFR TO VFR CIGS IN THE
AFTERNOON...  FOLLOWED BY LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. EXPECT FOG TO REDEVELOP
AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALSO OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THU MORNING. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH AT 6 TO 12 KNOTS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PS. 32/EE

 &&

.MARINE...AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT LOCAL BAYS AND
SOUNDS AND THE NEAR SHORE GULF WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. A
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WIND FLOW WILL OTHERWISE
CONTINUE OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING AHEAD OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF THURSDAY MORNING...WITH
STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATE FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY AS A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTH. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE LIKELY ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT
IN THE WAKE OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      80  50  58  32  52 /  30  50  70  20  05
PENSACOLA   76  61  62  38  54 /  20  40  60  20  20
DESTIN      69  60  64  40  54 /  20  30  60  20  20
EVERGREEN   81  55  56  33  52 /  30  60  70  05  05
WAYNESBORO  80  41  42  26  48 /  30  60  70  05  05
CAMDEN      80  48  49  28  50 /  20  70  70  05  05
CRESTVIEW   81  61  62  37  56 /  20  40  60  20  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR ALZ063-064.

FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR FLZ002-004-
     006.

MS...NONE.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR GMZ630>635-
     650-655.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 041157
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
557 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...BETTER COVERAGE OF FOG REMAINS
CLOSER TO THE COAST THIS MORNING GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-
10 CORRIDOR STRETCHING OVER THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS OUT TO ABOUT 20
NM. WITH BETTER MIXING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER TODAY AND TONIGHT THE
BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD FOG WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOSER THE COAST
DUE TO BETTER MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE LOWER LEVELS. OTHERWISE...FOR
TODAY SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY EARLY TODAY FOLLOWED BY A MIX
OF CLOUDS AND SUN OVER THE LOWER HALF OF THE CWFA DURING THE
AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY BETTER CLOUDS...RAIN AND FOG OVERNIGHT. RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE TODAY AND TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN
OCCURRING OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA LATE TODAY
AND OVERNIGHT. WITH WEAK INSTABILITY AND FORCING IN THE MID LEVELS
HAVE ALSO MENTIONED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OF
PRECIP LATER TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT. WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY AND
FORCING IN THE MID LEVELS STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
IN NOT EXPECTED. BY LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THU MORNING THE STRONG
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE CWFA PUSHING THE HEAVIER SHOWERS SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE CWFA. WILL ALSO MENTION FOG AGAIN FOR THIS EVENING
KEEPING THE COVERAGE MOSTLY PATCHY OVER LAND OCCURRING MOSTLY OVER
COASTAL SECTIONS THROUGH EARLY THU MORNING. AS FOR TEMPS WILL LEAN
TOWARDS THE WARMER MAVMOS THROUGH TONIGHT...ADDING A DEGREE OR TWO
FOR MOST INLAND AREAS FOR DAYTIME HIGHS WHICH RESULTS IN HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 70S NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. TONIGHTS LOWS WILL BE A LITTLE
MORE DIFFICULT AS FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...LOWS RANGING FROM
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S FOR THE NORTHWEST HALF AND THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S TO THE SOUTHEAST. 32/EE

[THURSDAY AND FRIDAY]...THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING
THE I-65 CORRIDOR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...AND MOVE SOUTHEAST OFF
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST BEFORE NOON. MAINTAINED LIKELY RAIN ACROSS
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FOR THURSDAY MORNING AS ONGOING LIGHT RAIN
NORTHWEST OF I-65 AROUND DAYBREAK SPREADS SOUTHEAST WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE COLD FRONT. BY THE AFTERNOON...EXPECT A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN
AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

MODEL SOUNDING ANALYSIS AND FORECAST SURFACE TEMPERATURES ACROSS
WAYNE COUNTY IN MISSISSIPPI AND CHOCTAW COUNTY IN ALABAMA FAVOR A
MIX OF RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN TO BEGIN AROUND 10 AM THAT WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS SURFACE SUB-FREEZING
TEMPERATURES WORK THEIR WAY INTO THOSE AREAS. A LIGHT ACCUMULATION
MAY OCCUR...SO STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES TO THIS SITUATION. THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD JUST SEE A VERY COLD RAIN ON
THURSDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL HOVER ALONG THE COASTAL
SECTIONS OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES STAYING ABOVE FREEZING.

THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO THROUGH THE REMAINDER ON THE SHORT TERM FORECAST...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION. IT WILL BE DRY ON FRIDAY WITH
EXCEPTION OF A FEW PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN HUGGING THE COAST. DRY
FRIDAY NIGHT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL OCCUR NEAR DAYBREAK AND THEN FALL
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SO HIGHS EARLY IN THE MORNING WILL RANGE FROM 40
TO 57 DEGREES NORTHWEST OF I-65...AND FROM 57 TO 64 DEGREES AND DROP
ABOUT 10 DEGREES BY LATE AFTERNOON. LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO MID 30S NORTHWEST OF I-65...WITH MID
TO UPPER 30S SOUTHEAST OF I-65. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL ONLY REACH THE
MID 40S TO LOWER 50S NORTHWEST OF I-65...AND THE LOWER TO MID 50S
SOUTHEAST OF I-65. /22

&&

.LONG TERM [SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]...IT WILL BE COOL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT AND
WITH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINDER OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. WHILE IT
WILL BE DRY ON SATURDAY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
WILL RE-ENTER THE PICTURE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS A SERIES
OF WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE AND SHORTWAVES EXIT THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
STATES AND TRAVERSE THE REGION. THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE
MORE AVAILABLE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY MANAGE TO REACH THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S
THROUGH MONDAY. THE LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
MID 30S TO MID 40S AND THEN STEADILY CLIMB INTO THE LOWER INTO THE
40S FOR BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS. /22

&&

.AVIATION...03.12Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF CYCLE...MOSTLY LIFR TO IFR
VISIBILITIES AND CIGS THROUGH 04.17Z...THEN MVFR TO VFR CIGS IN THE
AFTERNOON...  FOLLOWED BY LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. EXPECT FOG TO REDEVELOP
AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALSO OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THU MORNING. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH AT 6 TO 12 KNOTS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PS. 32/EE

 &&

.MARINE...AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT LOCAL BAYS AND
SOUNDS AND THE NEAR SHORE GULF WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. A
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WIND FLOW WILL OTHERWISE
CONTINUE OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING AHEAD OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF THURSDAY MORNING...WITH
STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATE FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY AS A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTH. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE LIKELY ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT
IN THE WAKE OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      80  50  58  32  52 /  30  50  70  20  05
PENSACOLA   76  61  62  38  54 /  20  40  60  20  20
DESTIN      69  60  64  40  54 /  20  30  60  20  20
EVERGREEN   81  55  56  33  52 /  30  60  70  05  05
WAYNESBORO  80  41  42  26  48 /  30  60  70  05  05
CAMDEN      80  48  49  28  50 /  20  70  70  05  05
CRESTVIEW   81  61  62  37  56 /  20  40  60  20  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR ALZ063-064.

FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR FLZ002-004-
     006.

MS...NONE.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR GMZ630>635-
     650-655.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMOB 041157
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
557 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...BETTER COVERAGE OF FOG REMAINS
CLOSER TO THE COAST THIS MORNING GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-
10 CORRIDOR STRETCHING OVER THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS OUT TO ABOUT 20
NM. WITH BETTER MIXING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER TODAY AND TONIGHT THE
BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD FOG WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOSER THE COAST
DUE TO BETTER MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE LOWER LEVELS. OTHERWISE...FOR
TODAY SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY EARLY TODAY FOLLOWED BY A MIX
OF CLOUDS AND SUN OVER THE LOWER HALF OF THE CWFA DURING THE
AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY BETTER CLOUDS...RAIN AND FOG OVERNIGHT. RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE TODAY AND TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN
OCCURRING OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA LATE TODAY
AND OVERNIGHT. WITH WEAK INSTABILITY AND FORCING IN THE MID LEVELS
HAVE ALSO MENTIONED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OF
PRECIP LATER TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT. WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY AND
FORCING IN THE MID LEVELS STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
IN NOT EXPECTED. BY LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THU MORNING THE STRONG
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE CWFA PUSHING THE HEAVIER SHOWERS SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE CWFA. WILL ALSO MENTION FOG AGAIN FOR THIS EVENING
KEEPING THE COVERAGE MOSTLY PATCHY OVER LAND OCCURRING MOSTLY OVER
COASTAL SECTIONS THROUGH EARLY THU MORNING. AS FOR TEMPS WILL LEAN
TOWARDS THE WARMER MAVMOS THROUGH TONIGHT...ADDING A DEGREE OR TWO
FOR MOST INLAND AREAS FOR DAYTIME HIGHS WHICH RESULTS IN HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 70S NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. TONIGHTS LOWS WILL BE A LITTLE
MORE DIFFICULT AS FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...LOWS RANGING FROM
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S FOR THE NORTHWEST HALF AND THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S TO THE SOUTHEAST. 32/EE

[THURSDAY AND FRIDAY]...THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING
THE I-65 CORRIDOR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...AND MOVE SOUTHEAST OFF
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST BEFORE NOON. MAINTAINED LIKELY RAIN ACROSS
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FOR THURSDAY MORNING AS ONGOING LIGHT RAIN
NORTHWEST OF I-65 AROUND DAYBREAK SPREADS SOUTHEAST WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE COLD FRONT. BY THE AFTERNOON...EXPECT A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN
AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

MODEL SOUNDING ANALYSIS AND FORECAST SURFACE TEMPERATURES ACROSS
WAYNE COUNTY IN MISSISSIPPI AND CHOCTAW COUNTY IN ALABAMA FAVOR A
MIX OF RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN TO BEGIN AROUND 10 AM THAT WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS SURFACE SUB-FREEZING
TEMPERATURES WORK THEIR WAY INTO THOSE AREAS. A LIGHT ACCUMULATION
MAY OCCUR...SO STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES TO THIS SITUATION. THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD JUST SEE A VERY COLD RAIN ON
THURSDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL HOVER ALONG THE COASTAL
SECTIONS OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES STAYING ABOVE FREEZING.

THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO THROUGH THE REMAINDER ON THE SHORT TERM FORECAST...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION. IT WILL BE DRY ON FRIDAY WITH
EXCEPTION OF A FEW PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN HUGGING THE COAST. DRY
FRIDAY NIGHT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL OCCUR NEAR DAYBREAK AND THEN FALL
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SO HIGHS EARLY IN THE MORNING WILL RANGE FROM 40
TO 57 DEGREES NORTHWEST OF I-65...AND FROM 57 TO 64 DEGREES AND DROP
ABOUT 10 DEGREES BY LATE AFTERNOON. LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO MID 30S NORTHWEST OF I-65...WITH MID
TO UPPER 30S SOUTHEAST OF I-65. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL ONLY REACH THE
MID 40S TO LOWER 50S NORTHWEST OF I-65...AND THE LOWER TO MID 50S
SOUTHEAST OF I-65. /22

&&

.LONG TERM [SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]...IT WILL BE COOL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT AND
WITH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINDER OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. WHILE IT
WILL BE DRY ON SATURDAY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
WILL RE-ENTER THE PICTURE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS A SERIES
OF WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE AND SHORTWAVES EXIT THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
STATES AND TRAVERSE THE REGION. THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE
MORE AVAILABLE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY MANAGE TO REACH THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S
THROUGH MONDAY. THE LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
MID 30S TO MID 40S AND THEN STEADILY CLIMB INTO THE LOWER INTO THE
40S FOR BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS. /22

&&

.AVIATION...03.12Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF CYCLE...MOSTLY LIFR TO IFR
VISIBILITIES AND CIGS THROUGH 04.17Z...THEN MVFR TO VFR CIGS IN THE
AFTERNOON...  FOLLOWED BY LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. EXPECT FOG TO REDEVELOP
AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALSO OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THU MORNING. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH AT 6 TO 12 KNOTS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PS. 32/EE

 &&

.MARINE...AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT LOCAL BAYS AND
SOUNDS AND THE NEAR SHORE GULF WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. A
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WIND FLOW WILL OTHERWISE
CONTINUE OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING AHEAD OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF THURSDAY MORNING...WITH
STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATE FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY AS A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTH. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE LIKELY ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT
IN THE WAKE OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      80  50  58  32  52 /  30  50  70  20  05
PENSACOLA   76  61  62  38  54 /  20  40  60  20  20
DESTIN      69  60  64  40  54 /  20  30  60  20  20
EVERGREEN   81  55  56  33  52 /  30  60  70  05  05
WAYNESBORO  80  41  42  26  48 /  30  60  70  05  05
CAMDEN      80  48  49  28  50 /  20  70  70  05  05
CRESTVIEW   81  61  62  37  56 /  20  40  60  20  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR ALZ063-064.

FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR FLZ002-004-
     006.

MS...NONE.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR GMZ630>635-
     650-655.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 040551 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE TO AVIATION AND SHORT TERM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
440 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION...AM EXPECTING IFR OR LOW CIGS AND VISBYS
OVER COASTAL COUNTIES AND NEARBY AREAS OVERNIGHT. WITH COOL COASTAL WATERS...
GUIDANCE IS PRETTY CONSISTENT IN ADVERTISING A HIGH PROBABILITY OD DENSE FOG
DEVELOPING AGAIN TONIGHT. INLAND...CIGS LOOK TO BE THE MAIN PROBLEM...
WITH MVFR TO IFR LEVELS OVERNIGHT. AM EXPECTING CIGS/VISBYS TO RISE
WITH DAYTIME HEATING WEDNESDAY...BUT GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT ANOTHER DENSE FOG
EVENT AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

/16

&&

.UPDATE...NO UPDATE TO CURRENT PACKAGE...WITH EVERYTHING GENERALLY ON TRACK.

/16

&&

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT]...A SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS
BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN AND A
DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND DESERT SOUTHWEST. A
SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
AND THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME
RESIDUAL LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION THOUGH SOME LOCATIONS HAVE
BROKEN OUT IN SUNSHINE. SOME PATCHY FOG WAS STILL NOTED ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST OF THE NORTHWEST FL PANHANDLE. TEMPERATURES HAVE
WARMED INTO THE 70S OVER MOST INLAND LOCATIONS...THOUGH MID TO UPPER
60S WERE COMMON NEAR THE COAST.

A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT. THE LATEST HRRR/RAP
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT FOG WILL DEVELOP MAINLY OVER COASTAL PORTIONS OF
THE CWFA EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE SPREADING NORTHWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST
OF THE CWFA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING HOURS. CONFIDENCE
IN DENSE FOG POTENTIAL IS HIGHEST ALONG COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
WHERE WE WILL ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM EARLY THIS EVENING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. LATER SHIFTS WILL MONITOR FOG DEVELOPMENT AND EXPAND
NORTHWARD IF NECESSARY. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT COULD SUPPORT LIGHT DRIZZLE OR
LIGHT RAIN PRIMARILY OVER NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA. WILL GO WITH
MENTION OF NO RAIN ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. A MILD NIGHT IS
EXPECTED WITH LOWS RANGING IN THE UPPER 50S TO THE LOWER 60S.

A WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST WEDNESDAY AS THE SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS REMAINS ORIENTED FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF
AND AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE TENNESSEE AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. AREAS OF FOG SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH
WITH TEMPERATURES LOOKING TO WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S BY THE
AFTERNOON. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL SUPPORT A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE
OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY. /21

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT...THE LEADING EDGE OF A COLDER
AIRMASS...SURGES SOUTHEAST APPROACHING THE I-65 CORRIDOR BY DAYBREAK
THURSDAY MORNING. SOUTHEAST OF THE FRONT...SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY. A
FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER POSSIBLE AS WELL. NORTHWEST OF THE
FRONT...TEMPERATURES UNDERGO A SHARP DECLINE. THIS BRINGS ABOUT SOME
POTENTIAL INTERESTING DEVELOPMENTS WITH REGARD TO WINTRY WEATHER. THE
FORECAST TEMPERATURE PROFILES ARE FORECAST TO TREND BELOW FREEZING IN
THE LOWEST COUPLE THOUSAND FEET IN THE PRESENCE OF NORTHERLY FLOW
AND COLD AIR ADVECTION PROCESSES. ABOVE THIS LAYER...A SUBSTANTIAL
WARM LAYER EXISTS WITH FLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THUS...THE RISK
FAVORS LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM
WAYNESBORO MS TO BUTLER AL BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME...THE
IMPACTS LOOK LIMITED WITH LIGHT ICING ON BRIDGES/OVERPASSES POSSIBLE OVER
THESE AREAS.

THE WARMER LOWS RANGE FROM 55 TO 60 ALONG THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE COAST...BEFORE TRENDING COLDER DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
THERE REMAINS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS FORECAST ON TIMING
THE PROGRESSION OF THE COLDER AIR.

.LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]...COLD FRONT SURGES SOUTHWARD
INTO THE GULF ON THURSDAY...WITH GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION BRINGING A
CHILLY DAY. WITH CLOUDS...RAIN...AND LOWERING THICKNESS
VALUES...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A CHALLENGE FOR THURSDAY. DAILY HIGHS
OVER MOST AREAS IN THE AM...THEN FALLING THROUGH THE DAY...TAKING ON
A NON-DIURNAL DAILY CURVE. HIGHS HARD PRESSED TO GET OUT OF THE MID
30S THURSDAY OVER THE INTERIOR NORTHWEST...FALLING THROUGH THE 40S
OVER THE I-65 CORRIDOR AND INTO THE LOWER 50S OVER THE WESTERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE. A COLD RAIN IS FORECAST TO TRACK EAST SOUTHEAST
AND OUT OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY EVENING. OVERNIGHT LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT IN THE MID/UPPER 20S NORTHWEST OF I-65 TO MID/UPPER 30S OVER
THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

IT WILL BE COOL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT AND WITH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINDER
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. WHILE IT WILL BE DRY ON FRIDAY...ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED RAINS RE-ENTER THE PICTURE FOR THE WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST
OF NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES AND SHORTWAVES
EXIT THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES AND TRAVERSE THE REGION.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S ON FRIDAY
AND THEN STEADILY CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 60S BY MONDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S AND
MOSTLY BE IN THE LOWER/MID 40S SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNINGS OVER
THE INTERIOR. EXCEPTION BEING THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS. /22

&&

.MARINE...AREA BEACH/MARINE CAMERAS INDICATE SOME DENSE FOG
LINGERING NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST THIS AFTERNOON...AND EXPECT DENSE
FOG TO BECOME WIDESPREAD THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. A DENSE MARINE FOG ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 9
AM WEDNESDAY.

A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WIND FLOW WILL OTHERWISE CONTINUE OVER
THE MARINE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF THURSDAY MORNING...WITH STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA
THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTH. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE LIKELY ON THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE STRONG COLD
FRONT. 32/21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      61  76  47  48  31 /  10  30  60  70  10
PENSACOLA   60  75  56  58  35 /  10  20  50  70  10
DESTIN      60  71  60  62  39 /  10  20  40  70  10
EVERGREEN   60  77  48  51  31 /  10  30  70  70  10
WAYNESBORO  61  76  33  36  27 /  20  40  80  70  10
CAMDEN      61  76  42  44  29 /  10  30  80  70  10
CRESTVIEW   60  76  58  60  35 /  10  20  50  70  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY
     FOR ALZ063-064.

FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY
     FOR FLZ002-004-006.

MS...NONE.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ630>635-650-
     655.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 040551 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE TO AVIATION AND SHORT TERM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
440 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION...AM EXPECTING IFR OR LOW CIGS AND VISBYS
OVER COASTAL COUNTIES AND NEARBY AREAS OVERNIGHT. WITH COOL COASTAL WATERS...
GUIDANCE IS PRETTY CONSISTENT IN ADVERTISING A HIGH PROBABILITY OD DENSE FOG
DEVELOPING AGAIN TONIGHT. INLAND...CIGS LOOK TO BE THE MAIN PROBLEM...
WITH MVFR TO IFR LEVELS OVERNIGHT. AM EXPECTING CIGS/VISBYS TO RISE
WITH DAYTIME HEATING WEDNESDAY...BUT GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT ANOTHER DENSE FOG
EVENT AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

/16

&&

.UPDATE...NO UPDATE TO CURRENT PACKAGE...WITH EVERYTHING GENERALLY ON TRACK.

/16

&&

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT]...A SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS
BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN AND A
DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND DESERT SOUTHWEST. A
SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
AND THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME
RESIDUAL LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION THOUGH SOME LOCATIONS HAVE
BROKEN OUT IN SUNSHINE. SOME PATCHY FOG WAS STILL NOTED ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST OF THE NORTHWEST FL PANHANDLE. TEMPERATURES HAVE
WARMED INTO THE 70S OVER MOST INLAND LOCATIONS...THOUGH MID TO UPPER
60S WERE COMMON NEAR THE COAST.

A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT. THE LATEST HRRR/RAP
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT FOG WILL DEVELOP MAINLY OVER COASTAL PORTIONS OF
THE CWFA EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE SPREADING NORTHWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST
OF THE CWFA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING HOURS. CONFIDENCE
IN DENSE FOG POTENTIAL IS HIGHEST ALONG COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
WHERE WE WILL ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM EARLY THIS EVENING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. LATER SHIFTS WILL MONITOR FOG DEVELOPMENT AND EXPAND
NORTHWARD IF NECESSARY. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT COULD SUPPORT LIGHT DRIZZLE OR
LIGHT RAIN PRIMARILY OVER NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA. WILL GO WITH
MENTION OF NO RAIN ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. A MILD NIGHT IS
EXPECTED WITH LOWS RANGING IN THE UPPER 50S TO THE LOWER 60S.

A WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST WEDNESDAY AS THE SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS REMAINS ORIENTED FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF
AND AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE TENNESSEE AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. AREAS OF FOG SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH
WITH TEMPERATURES LOOKING TO WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S BY THE
AFTERNOON. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL SUPPORT A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE
OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY. /21

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT...THE LEADING EDGE OF A COLDER
AIRMASS...SURGES SOUTHEAST APPROACHING THE I-65 CORRIDOR BY DAYBREAK
THURSDAY MORNING. SOUTHEAST OF THE FRONT...SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY. A
FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER POSSIBLE AS WELL. NORTHWEST OF THE
FRONT...TEMPERATURES UNDERGO A SHARP DECLINE. THIS BRINGS ABOUT SOME
POTENTIAL INTERESTING DEVELOPMENTS WITH REGARD TO WINTRY WEATHER. THE
FORECAST TEMPERATURE PROFILES ARE FORECAST TO TREND BELOW FREEZING IN
THE LOWEST COUPLE THOUSAND FEET IN THE PRESENCE OF NORTHERLY FLOW
AND COLD AIR ADVECTION PROCESSES. ABOVE THIS LAYER...A SUBSTANTIAL
WARM LAYER EXISTS WITH FLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THUS...THE RISK
FAVORS LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM
WAYNESBORO MS TO BUTLER AL BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME...THE
IMPACTS LOOK LIMITED WITH LIGHT ICING ON BRIDGES/OVERPASSES POSSIBLE OVER
THESE AREAS.

THE WARMER LOWS RANGE FROM 55 TO 60 ALONG THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE COAST...BEFORE TRENDING COLDER DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
THERE REMAINS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS FORECAST ON TIMING
THE PROGRESSION OF THE COLDER AIR.

.LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]...COLD FRONT SURGES SOUTHWARD
INTO THE GULF ON THURSDAY...WITH GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION BRINGING A
CHILLY DAY. WITH CLOUDS...RAIN...AND LOWERING THICKNESS
VALUES...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A CHALLENGE FOR THURSDAY. DAILY HIGHS
OVER MOST AREAS IN THE AM...THEN FALLING THROUGH THE DAY...TAKING ON
A NON-DIURNAL DAILY CURVE. HIGHS HARD PRESSED TO GET OUT OF THE MID
30S THURSDAY OVER THE INTERIOR NORTHWEST...FALLING THROUGH THE 40S
OVER THE I-65 CORRIDOR AND INTO THE LOWER 50S OVER THE WESTERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE. A COLD RAIN IS FORECAST TO TRACK EAST SOUTHEAST
AND OUT OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY EVENING. OVERNIGHT LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT IN THE MID/UPPER 20S NORTHWEST OF I-65 TO MID/UPPER 30S OVER
THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

IT WILL BE COOL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT AND WITH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINDER
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. WHILE IT WILL BE DRY ON FRIDAY...ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED RAINS RE-ENTER THE PICTURE FOR THE WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST
OF NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES AND SHORTWAVES
EXIT THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES AND TRAVERSE THE REGION.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S ON FRIDAY
AND THEN STEADILY CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 60S BY MONDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S AND
MOSTLY BE IN THE LOWER/MID 40S SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNINGS OVER
THE INTERIOR. EXCEPTION BEING THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS. /22

&&

.MARINE...AREA BEACH/MARINE CAMERAS INDICATE SOME DENSE FOG
LINGERING NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST THIS AFTERNOON...AND EXPECT DENSE
FOG TO BECOME WIDESPREAD THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. A DENSE MARINE FOG ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 9
AM WEDNESDAY.

A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WIND FLOW WILL OTHERWISE CONTINUE OVER
THE MARINE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF THURSDAY MORNING...WITH STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA
THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTH. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE LIKELY ON THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE STRONG COLD
FRONT. 32/21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      61  76  47  48  31 /  10  30  60  70  10
PENSACOLA   60  75  56  58  35 /  10  20  50  70  10
DESTIN      60  71  60  62  39 /  10  20  40  70  10
EVERGREEN   60  77  48  51  31 /  10  30  70  70  10
WAYNESBORO  61  76  33  36  27 /  20  40  80  70  10
CAMDEN      61  76  42  44  29 /  10  30  80  70  10
CRESTVIEW   60  76  58  60  35 /  10  20  50  70  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY
     FOR ALZ063-064.

FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY
     FOR FLZ002-004-006.

MS...NONE.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ630>635-650-
     655.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMOB 040551 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE TO AVIATION AND SHORT TERM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
440 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION...AM EXPECTING IFR OR LOW CIGS AND VISBYS
OVER COASTAL COUNTIES AND NEARBY AREAS OVERNIGHT. WITH COOL COASTAL WATERS...
GUIDANCE IS PRETTY CONSISTENT IN ADVERTISING A HIGH PROBABILITY OD DENSE FOG
DEVELOPING AGAIN TONIGHT. INLAND...CIGS LOOK TO BE THE MAIN PROBLEM...
WITH MVFR TO IFR LEVELS OVERNIGHT. AM EXPECTING CIGS/VISBYS TO RISE
WITH DAYTIME HEATING WEDNESDAY...BUT GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT ANOTHER DENSE FOG
EVENT AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

/16

&&

.UPDATE...NO UPDATE TO CURRENT PACKAGE...WITH EVERYTHING GENERALLY ON TRACK.

/16

&&

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT]...A SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS
BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN AND A
DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND DESERT SOUTHWEST. A
SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
AND THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME
RESIDUAL LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION THOUGH SOME LOCATIONS HAVE
BROKEN OUT IN SUNSHINE. SOME PATCHY FOG WAS STILL NOTED ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST OF THE NORTHWEST FL PANHANDLE. TEMPERATURES HAVE
WARMED INTO THE 70S OVER MOST INLAND LOCATIONS...THOUGH MID TO UPPER
60S WERE COMMON NEAR THE COAST.

A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT. THE LATEST HRRR/RAP
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT FOG WILL DEVELOP MAINLY OVER COASTAL PORTIONS OF
THE CWFA EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE SPREADING NORTHWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST
OF THE CWFA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING HOURS. CONFIDENCE
IN DENSE FOG POTENTIAL IS HIGHEST ALONG COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
WHERE WE WILL ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM EARLY THIS EVENING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. LATER SHIFTS WILL MONITOR FOG DEVELOPMENT AND EXPAND
NORTHWARD IF NECESSARY. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT COULD SUPPORT LIGHT DRIZZLE OR
LIGHT RAIN PRIMARILY OVER NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA. WILL GO WITH
MENTION OF NO RAIN ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. A MILD NIGHT IS
EXPECTED WITH LOWS RANGING IN THE UPPER 50S TO THE LOWER 60S.

A WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST WEDNESDAY AS THE SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS REMAINS ORIENTED FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF
AND AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE TENNESSEE AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. AREAS OF FOG SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH
WITH TEMPERATURES LOOKING TO WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S BY THE
AFTERNOON. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL SUPPORT A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE
OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY. /21

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT...THE LEADING EDGE OF A COLDER
AIRMASS...SURGES SOUTHEAST APPROACHING THE I-65 CORRIDOR BY DAYBREAK
THURSDAY MORNING. SOUTHEAST OF THE FRONT...SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY. A
FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER POSSIBLE AS WELL. NORTHWEST OF THE
FRONT...TEMPERATURES UNDERGO A SHARP DECLINE. THIS BRINGS ABOUT SOME
POTENTIAL INTERESTING DEVELOPMENTS WITH REGARD TO WINTRY WEATHER. THE
FORECAST TEMPERATURE PROFILES ARE FORECAST TO TREND BELOW FREEZING IN
THE LOWEST COUPLE THOUSAND FEET IN THE PRESENCE OF NORTHERLY FLOW
AND COLD AIR ADVECTION PROCESSES. ABOVE THIS LAYER...A SUBSTANTIAL
WARM LAYER EXISTS WITH FLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THUS...THE RISK
FAVORS LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM
WAYNESBORO MS TO BUTLER AL BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME...THE
IMPACTS LOOK LIMITED WITH LIGHT ICING ON BRIDGES/OVERPASSES POSSIBLE OVER
THESE AREAS.

THE WARMER LOWS RANGE FROM 55 TO 60 ALONG THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE COAST...BEFORE TRENDING COLDER DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
THERE REMAINS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS FORECAST ON TIMING
THE PROGRESSION OF THE COLDER AIR.

.LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]...COLD FRONT SURGES SOUTHWARD
INTO THE GULF ON THURSDAY...WITH GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION BRINGING A
CHILLY DAY. WITH CLOUDS...RAIN...AND LOWERING THICKNESS
VALUES...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A CHALLENGE FOR THURSDAY. DAILY HIGHS
OVER MOST AREAS IN THE AM...THEN FALLING THROUGH THE DAY...TAKING ON
A NON-DIURNAL DAILY CURVE. HIGHS HARD PRESSED TO GET OUT OF THE MID
30S THURSDAY OVER THE INTERIOR NORTHWEST...FALLING THROUGH THE 40S
OVER THE I-65 CORRIDOR AND INTO THE LOWER 50S OVER THE WESTERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE. A COLD RAIN IS FORECAST TO TRACK EAST SOUTHEAST
AND OUT OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY EVENING. OVERNIGHT LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT IN THE MID/UPPER 20S NORTHWEST OF I-65 TO MID/UPPER 30S OVER
THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

IT WILL BE COOL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT AND WITH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINDER
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. WHILE IT WILL BE DRY ON FRIDAY...ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED RAINS RE-ENTER THE PICTURE FOR THE WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST
OF NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES AND SHORTWAVES
EXIT THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES AND TRAVERSE THE REGION.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S ON FRIDAY
AND THEN STEADILY CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 60S BY MONDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S AND
MOSTLY BE IN THE LOWER/MID 40S SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNINGS OVER
THE INTERIOR. EXCEPTION BEING THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS. /22

&&

.MARINE...AREA BEACH/MARINE CAMERAS INDICATE SOME DENSE FOG
LINGERING NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST THIS AFTERNOON...AND EXPECT DENSE
FOG TO BECOME WIDESPREAD THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. A DENSE MARINE FOG ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 9
AM WEDNESDAY.

A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WIND FLOW WILL OTHERWISE CONTINUE OVER
THE MARINE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF THURSDAY MORNING...WITH STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA
THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTH. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE LIKELY ON THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE STRONG COLD
FRONT. 32/21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      61  76  47  48  31 /  10  30  60  70  10
PENSACOLA   60  75  56  58  35 /  10  20  50  70  10
DESTIN      60  71  60  62  39 /  10  20  40  70  10
EVERGREEN   60  77  48  51  31 /  10  30  70  70  10
WAYNESBORO  61  76  33  36  27 /  20  40  80  70  10
CAMDEN      61  76  42  44  29 /  10  30  80  70  10
CRESTVIEW   60  76  58  60  35 /  10  20  50  70  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY
     FOR ALZ063-064.

FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY
     FOR FLZ002-004-006.

MS...NONE.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ630>635-650-
     655.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMOB 040551 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE TO AVIATION AND SHORT TERM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
440 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION...AM EXPECTING IFR OR LOW CIGS AND VISBYS
OVER COASTAL COUNTIES AND NEARBY AREAS OVERNIGHT. WITH COOL COASTAL WATERS...
GUIDANCE IS PRETTY CONSISTENT IN ADVERTISING A HIGH PROBABILITY OD DENSE FOG
DEVELOPING AGAIN TONIGHT. INLAND...CIGS LOOK TO BE THE MAIN PROBLEM...
WITH MVFR TO IFR LEVELS OVERNIGHT. AM EXPECTING CIGS/VISBYS TO RISE
WITH DAYTIME HEATING WEDNESDAY...BUT GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT ANOTHER DENSE FOG
EVENT AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

/16

&&

.UPDATE...NO UPDATE TO CURRENT PACKAGE...WITH EVERYTHING GENERALLY ON TRACK.

/16

&&

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT]...A SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS
BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN AND A
DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND DESERT SOUTHWEST. A
SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
AND THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME
RESIDUAL LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION THOUGH SOME LOCATIONS HAVE
BROKEN OUT IN SUNSHINE. SOME PATCHY FOG WAS STILL NOTED ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST OF THE NORTHWEST FL PANHANDLE. TEMPERATURES HAVE
WARMED INTO THE 70S OVER MOST INLAND LOCATIONS...THOUGH MID TO UPPER
60S WERE COMMON NEAR THE COAST.

A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT. THE LATEST HRRR/RAP
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT FOG WILL DEVELOP MAINLY OVER COASTAL PORTIONS OF
THE CWFA EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE SPREADING NORTHWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST
OF THE CWFA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING HOURS. CONFIDENCE
IN DENSE FOG POTENTIAL IS HIGHEST ALONG COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
WHERE WE WILL ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM EARLY THIS EVENING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. LATER SHIFTS WILL MONITOR FOG DEVELOPMENT AND EXPAND
NORTHWARD IF NECESSARY. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT COULD SUPPORT LIGHT DRIZZLE OR
LIGHT RAIN PRIMARILY OVER NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA. WILL GO WITH
MENTION OF NO RAIN ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. A MILD NIGHT IS
EXPECTED WITH LOWS RANGING IN THE UPPER 50S TO THE LOWER 60S.

A WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST WEDNESDAY AS THE SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS REMAINS ORIENTED FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF
AND AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE TENNESSEE AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. AREAS OF FOG SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH
WITH TEMPERATURES LOOKING TO WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S BY THE
AFTERNOON. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL SUPPORT A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE
OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY. /21

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT...THE LEADING EDGE OF A COLDER
AIRMASS...SURGES SOUTHEAST APPROACHING THE I-65 CORRIDOR BY DAYBREAK
THURSDAY MORNING. SOUTHEAST OF THE FRONT...SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY. A
FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER POSSIBLE AS WELL. NORTHWEST OF THE
FRONT...TEMPERATURES UNDERGO A SHARP DECLINE. THIS BRINGS ABOUT SOME
POTENTIAL INTERESTING DEVELOPMENTS WITH REGARD TO WINTRY WEATHER. THE
FORECAST TEMPERATURE PROFILES ARE FORECAST TO TREND BELOW FREEZING IN
THE LOWEST COUPLE THOUSAND FEET IN THE PRESENCE OF NORTHERLY FLOW
AND COLD AIR ADVECTION PROCESSES. ABOVE THIS LAYER...A SUBSTANTIAL
WARM LAYER EXISTS WITH FLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THUS...THE RISK
FAVORS LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM
WAYNESBORO MS TO BUTLER AL BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME...THE
IMPACTS LOOK LIMITED WITH LIGHT ICING ON BRIDGES/OVERPASSES POSSIBLE OVER
THESE AREAS.

THE WARMER LOWS RANGE FROM 55 TO 60 ALONG THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE COAST...BEFORE TRENDING COLDER DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
THERE REMAINS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS FORECAST ON TIMING
THE PROGRESSION OF THE COLDER AIR.

.LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]...COLD FRONT SURGES SOUTHWARD
INTO THE GULF ON THURSDAY...WITH GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION BRINGING A
CHILLY DAY. WITH CLOUDS...RAIN...AND LOWERING THICKNESS
VALUES...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A CHALLENGE FOR THURSDAY. DAILY HIGHS
OVER MOST AREAS IN THE AM...THEN FALLING THROUGH THE DAY...TAKING ON
A NON-DIURNAL DAILY CURVE. HIGHS HARD PRESSED TO GET OUT OF THE MID
30S THURSDAY OVER THE INTERIOR NORTHWEST...FALLING THROUGH THE 40S
OVER THE I-65 CORRIDOR AND INTO THE LOWER 50S OVER THE WESTERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE. A COLD RAIN IS FORECAST TO TRACK EAST SOUTHEAST
AND OUT OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY EVENING. OVERNIGHT LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT IN THE MID/UPPER 20S NORTHWEST OF I-65 TO MID/UPPER 30S OVER
THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

IT WILL BE COOL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT AND WITH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINDER
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. WHILE IT WILL BE DRY ON FRIDAY...ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED RAINS RE-ENTER THE PICTURE FOR THE WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST
OF NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES AND SHORTWAVES
EXIT THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES AND TRAVERSE THE REGION.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S ON FRIDAY
AND THEN STEADILY CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 60S BY MONDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S AND
MOSTLY BE IN THE LOWER/MID 40S SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNINGS OVER
THE INTERIOR. EXCEPTION BEING THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS. /22

&&

.MARINE...AREA BEACH/MARINE CAMERAS INDICATE SOME DENSE FOG
LINGERING NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST THIS AFTERNOON...AND EXPECT DENSE
FOG TO BECOME WIDESPREAD THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. A DENSE MARINE FOG ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 9
AM WEDNESDAY.

A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WIND FLOW WILL OTHERWISE CONTINUE OVER
THE MARINE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF THURSDAY MORNING...WITH STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA
THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTH. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE LIKELY ON THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE STRONG COLD
FRONT. 32/21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      61  76  47  48  31 /  10  30  60  70  10
PENSACOLA   60  75  56  58  35 /  10  20  50  70  10
DESTIN      60  71  60  62  39 /  10  20  40  70  10
EVERGREEN   60  77  48  51  31 /  10  30  70  70  10
WAYNESBORO  61  76  33  36  27 /  20  40  80  70  10
CAMDEN      61  76  42  44  29 /  10  30  80  70  10
CRESTVIEW   60  76  58  60  35 /  10  20  50  70  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY
     FOR ALZ063-064.

FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY
     FOR FLZ002-004-006.

MS...NONE.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ630>635-650-
     655.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 032240
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
440 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT]...A SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS
BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN AND A
DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND DESERT SOUTHWEST. A
SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
AND THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME
RESIDUAL LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION THOUGH SOME LOCATIONS HAVE
BROKEN OUT IN SUNSHINE. SOME PATCHY FOG WAS STILL NOTED ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST OF THE NORTHWEST FL PANHANDLE. TEMPERATURES HAVE
WARMED INTO THE 70S OVER MOST INLAND LOCATIONS...THOUGH MID TO UPPER
60S WERE COMMON NEAR THE COAST.

A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT. THE LATEST HRRR/RAP
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT FOG WILL DEVELOP MAINLY OVER COASTAL PORTIONS OF
THE CWFA EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE SPREADING NORTHWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST
OF THE CWFA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING HOURS. CONFIDENCE
IN DENSE FOG POTENTIAL IS HIGHEST ALONG COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
WHERE WE WILL ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM EARLY THIS EVENING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. LATER SHIFTS WILL MONITOR FOG DEVELOPMENT AND EXPAND
NORTHWARD IF NECESSARY. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT COULD SUPPORT LIGHT DRIZZLE OR
LIGHT RAIN PRIMARILY OVER NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA. WILL GO WITH
MENTION OF NO RAIN ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. A MILD NIGHT IS
EXPECTED WITH LOWS RANGING IN THE UPPER 50S TO THE LOWER 60S.

A WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST WEDNESDAY AS THE SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS REMAINS ORIENTED FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF
AND AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE TENNESSEE AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. AREAS OF FOG SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH
WITH TEMPERATURES LOOKING TO WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S BY THE
AFTERNOON. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL SUPPORT A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE
OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY. /21

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT...THE LEADING EDGE OF A COLDER
AIRMASS...SURGES SOUTHEAST APPROACHING THE I-65 CORRIDOR BY DAYBREAK
THURSDAY MORNING. SOUTHEAST OF THE FRONT...SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY. A
FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER POSSIBLE AS WELL. NORTHWEST OF THE
FRONT...TEMPERATURES UNDERGO A SHARP DECLINE. THIS BRINGS ABOUT SOME
POTENTIAL INTERESTING DEVELOPMENTS WITH REGARD TO WINTRY WEATHER. THE
FORECAST TEMPERATURE PROFILES ARE FORECAST TO TREND BELOW FREEZING IN
THE LOWEST COUPLE THOUSAND FEET IN THE PRESENCE OF NORTHERLY FLOW
AND COLD AIR ADVECTION PROCESSES. ABOVE THIS LAYER...A SUBSTANTIAL
WARM LAYER EXISTS WITH FLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THUS...THE RISK
FAVORS LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM
WAYNESBORO MS TO BUTLER AL BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME...THE
IMPACTS LOOK LIMITED WITH LIGHT ICING ON BRIDGES/OVERPASSES POSSIBLE OVER
THESE AREAS.

THE WARMER LOWS RANGE FROM 55 TO 60 ALONG THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE COAST...BEFORE TRENDING COLDER DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
THERE REMAINS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS FORECAST ON TIMING
THE PROGRESSION OF THE COLDER AIR.

.LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]...COLD FRONT SURGES SOUTHWARD
INTO THE GULF ON THURSDAY...WITH GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION BRINGING A
CHILLY DAY. WITH CLOUDS...RAIN...AND LOWERING THICKNESS
VALUES...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A CHALLENGE FOR THURSDAY. DAILY HIGHS
OVER MOST AREAS IN THE AM...THEN FALLING THROUGH THE DAY...TAKING ON
A NON-DIURNAL DAILY CURVE. HIGHS HARD PRESSED TO GET OUT OF THE MID
30S THURSDAY OVER THE INTERIOR NORTHWEST...FALLING THROUGH THE 40S
OVER THE I-65 CORRIDOR AND INTO THE LOWER 50S OVER THE WESTERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE. A COLD RAIN IS FORECAST TO TRACK EAST SOUTHEAST
AND OUT OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY EVENING. OVERNIGHT LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT IN THE MID/UPPER 20S NORTHWEST OF I-65 TO MID/UPPER 30S OVER
THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

IT WILL BE COOL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT AND WITH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINDER
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. WHILE IT WILL BE DRY ON FRIDAY...ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED RAINS RE-ENTER THE PICTURE FOR THE WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST
OF NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES AND SHORTWAVES
EXIT THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES AND TRAVERSE THE REGION.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S ON FRIDAY
AND THEN STEADILY CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 60S BY MONDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S AND
MOSTLY BE IN THE LOWER/MID 40S SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNINGS OVER
THE INTERIOR. EXCEPTION BEING THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS. /22

&&

.AVIATION...
03.18Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION...
MVFR CIGS SHOULD GENERALLY PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME BREAKS
POSSIBLE...BUT A RETURN TO IFR TO LIFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THIS
EVENING/LATE TONIGHT WITH AREAS OF FOG ALSO EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. VISIBILITY IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME REDUCED TO IFR TO LIFR LEVELS. /21

&&

.MARINE...AREA BEACH/MARINE CAMERAS INDICATE SOME DENSE FOG LINGERING NEAR THE
IMMEDIATE COAST THIS AFTERNOON...AND EXPECT DENSE FOG TO BECOME WIDESPREAD THIS
EVENING THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A DENSE MARINE FOG ADVISORY WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM WEDNESDAY.

A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WIND FLOW WILL OTHERWISE CONTINUE OVER
THE MARINE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF THURSDAY MORNING...WITH STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA
THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTH. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE LIKELY ON THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE STRONG COLD
FRONT. 32/21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      61  76  47  48  31 /  10  30  60  70  10
PENSACOLA   60  75  56  58  35 /  10  20  50  70  10
DESTIN      60  71  60  62  39 /  10  20  40  70  10
EVERGREEN   60  77  48  51  31 /  10  30  70  70  10
WAYNESBORO  61  76  33  36  27 /  20  40  80  70  10
CAMDEN      61  76  42  44  29 /  10  30  80  70  10
CRESTVIEW   60  76  58  60  35 /  10  20  50  70  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY
     FOR ALZ063-064.

FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY
     FOR FLZ002-004-006.

MS...NONE.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ630>635-650-
     655.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 032240
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
440 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT]...A SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS
BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN AND A
DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND DESERT SOUTHWEST. A
SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
AND THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME
RESIDUAL LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION THOUGH SOME LOCATIONS HAVE
BROKEN OUT IN SUNSHINE. SOME PATCHY FOG WAS STILL NOTED ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST OF THE NORTHWEST FL PANHANDLE. TEMPERATURES HAVE
WARMED INTO THE 70S OVER MOST INLAND LOCATIONS...THOUGH MID TO UPPER
60S WERE COMMON NEAR THE COAST.

A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT. THE LATEST HRRR/RAP
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT FOG WILL DEVELOP MAINLY OVER COASTAL PORTIONS OF
THE CWFA EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE SPREADING NORTHWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST
OF THE CWFA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING HOURS. CONFIDENCE
IN DENSE FOG POTENTIAL IS HIGHEST ALONG COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
WHERE WE WILL ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM EARLY THIS EVENING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. LATER SHIFTS WILL MONITOR FOG DEVELOPMENT AND EXPAND
NORTHWARD IF NECESSARY. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT COULD SUPPORT LIGHT DRIZZLE OR
LIGHT RAIN PRIMARILY OVER NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA. WILL GO WITH
MENTION OF NO RAIN ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. A MILD NIGHT IS
EXPECTED WITH LOWS RANGING IN THE UPPER 50S TO THE LOWER 60S.

A WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST WEDNESDAY AS THE SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS REMAINS ORIENTED FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF
AND AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE TENNESSEE AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. AREAS OF FOG SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH
WITH TEMPERATURES LOOKING TO WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S BY THE
AFTERNOON. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL SUPPORT A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE
OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY. /21

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT...THE LEADING EDGE OF A COLDER
AIRMASS...SURGES SOUTHEAST APPROACHING THE I-65 CORRIDOR BY DAYBREAK
THURSDAY MORNING. SOUTHEAST OF THE FRONT...SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY. A
FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER POSSIBLE AS WELL. NORTHWEST OF THE
FRONT...TEMPERATURES UNDERGO A SHARP DECLINE. THIS BRINGS ABOUT SOME
POTENTIAL INTERESTING DEVELOPMENTS WITH REGARD TO WINTRY WEATHER. THE
FORECAST TEMPERATURE PROFILES ARE FORECAST TO TREND BELOW FREEZING IN
THE LOWEST COUPLE THOUSAND FEET IN THE PRESENCE OF NORTHERLY FLOW
AND COLD AIR ADVECTION PROCESSES. ABOVE THIS LAYER...A SUBSTANTIAL
WARM LAYER EXISTS WITH FLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THUS...THE RISK
FAVORS LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM
WAYNESBORO MS TO BUTLER AL BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME...THE
IMPACTS LOOK LIMITED WITH LIGHT ICING ON BRIDGES/OVERPASSES POSSIBLE OVER
THESE AREAS.

THE WARMER LOWS RANGE FROM 55 TO 60 ALONG THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE COAST...BEFORE TRENDING COLDER DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
THERE REMAINS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS FORECAST ON TIMING
THE PROGRESSION OF THE COLDER AIR.

.LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]...COLD FRONT SURGES SOUTHWARD
INTO THE GULF ON THURSDAY...WITH GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION BRINGING A
CHILLY DAY. WITH CLOUDS...RAIN...AND LOWERING THICKNESS
VALUES...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A CHALLENGE FOR THURSDAY. DAILY HIGHS
OVER MOST AREAS IN THE AM...THEN FALLING THROUGH THE DAY...TAKING ON
A NON-DIURNAL DAILY CURVE. HIGHS HARD PRESSED TO GET OUT OF THE MID
30S THURSDAY OVER THE INTERIOR NORTHWEST...FALLING THROUGH THE 40S
OVER THE I-65 CORRIDOR AND INTO THE LOWER 50S OVER THE WESTERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE. A COLD RAIN IS FORECAST TO TRACK EAST SOUTHEAST
AND OUT OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY EVENING. OVERNIGHT LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT IN THE MID/UPPER 20S NORTHWEST OF I-65 TO MID/UPPER 30S OVER
THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

IT WILL BE COOL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT AND WITH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINDER
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. WHILE IT WILL BE DRY ON FRIDAY...ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED RAINS RE-ENTER THE PICTURE FOR THE WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST
OF NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES AND SHORTWAVES
EXIT THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES AND TRAVERSE THE REGION.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S ON FRIDAY
AND THEN STEADILY CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 60S BY MONDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S AND
MOSTLY BE IN THE LOWER/MID 40S SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNINGS OVER
THE INTERIOR. EXCEPTION BEING THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS. /22

&&

.AVIATION...
03.18Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION...
MVFR CIGS SHOULD GENERALLY PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME BREAKS
POSSIBLE...BUT A RETURN TO IFR TO LIFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THIS
EVENING/LATE TONIGHT WITH AREAS OF FOG ALSO EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. VISIBILITY IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME REDUCED TO IFR TO LIFR LEVELS. /21

&&

.MARINE...AREA BEACH/MARINE CAMERAS INDICATE SOME DENSE FOG LINGERING NEAR THE
IMMEDIATE COAST THIS AFTERNOON...AND EXPECT DENSE FOG TO BECOME WIDESPREAD THIS
EVENING THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A DENSE MARINE FOG ADVISORY WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM WEDNESDAY.

A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WIND FLOW WILL OTHERWISE CONTINUE OVER
THE MARINE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF THURSDAY MORNING...WITH STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA
THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTH. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE LIKELY ON THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE STRONG COLD
FRONT. 32/21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      61  76  47  48  31 /  10  30  60  70  10
PENSACOLA   60  75  56  58  35 /  10  20  50  70  10
DESTIN      60  71  60  62  39 /  10  20  40  70  10
EVERGREEN   60  77  48  51  31 /  10  30  70  70  10
WAYNESBORO  61  76  33  36  27 /  20  40  80  70  10
CAMDEN      61  76  42  44  29 /  10  30  80  70  10
CRESTVIEW   60  76  58  60  35 /  10  20  50  70  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY
     FOR ALZ063-064.

FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY
     FOR FLZ002-004-006.

MS...NONE.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ630>635-650-
     655.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMOB 031911 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
111 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME BREAKS OF SUN NOTED
ACROSS SOME LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 70S INLAND...WITH MID TO UPPER 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST WHERE
PATCHY FOG AND VERY LOW CEILINGS ARE STILL HOLDING ON. THE FORECAST
MOSTLY LOOKS ON TRACK...ADDED SOME PATCHY AFTERNOON FOG NEAR THE
IMMEDIATE COAST AND MADE SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS. /21

&&

.AVIATION...
03.18Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION...
CIGS HAVE RISEN TO MVFR LEVELS ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT FOR
LOCALIZED IFR TO LIFR CIGS AND MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS
PERSISTING NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. MVFR CIGS SHOULD GENERALLY
PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME BREAKS POSSIBLE...BUT A RETURN TO
IFR TO LIFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING/LATE TONIGHT WITH AREAS
OF FOG ALSO EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. VISIBILITY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME REDUCED TO IFR TO LIFR
LEVELS. /21

&&

.MARINE...
AREA BEACH/MARINE CAMS AND NEAR SHORE OBSERVATIONS INDICATED DENSE
FOG WAS PERSISTING LATE THIS MORNING. WITH THE FOG CONTINUING AND/OR
HIGHLY LIKELY TO RETURN/CONTINUE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WE HAVE EXTENDED THE DENSE MARINE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM
CST WED. /21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      74  61  76  47  48 /  20  20  30  60  70
PENSACOLA   72  60  75  56  58 /  20  20  30  50  70
DESTIN      68  60  71  60  62 /  20  20  30  40  70
EVERGREEN   78  60  76  48  51 /  20  20  30  70  70
WAYNESBORO  75  61  76  33  36 /  20  30  30  80  70
CAMDEN      77  61  75  42  44 /  20  20  40  80  70
CRESTVIEW   78  60  76  58  60 /  20  20  30  50  70

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ630>635-650-
     655.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 031137
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
537 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG WITH SURFACE
VISIBILITIES LOWERING TO LESS THAN 1/4 OF A MILE FOR MOST AREAS WILL
BEGIN TO SLOWLY LIFT BY 9 AM THIS MORNING. AS A RESULT A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FOR ALL AREAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 9 AM CST THIS MORNING.
DENSE FOG WILL LINGER NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST POSSIBLY INTO THE LATE
MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH A CONTINUE FLOW FROM OFF THE GULF
COMBINED WITH SFC DEWPOINT TEMPS CLIMBING TO THE LOWER 60S WIDESPREAD
DENSE FOG WILL LIKLEY REFORM OVER COASTAL AREAS EARLY THIS EVENING
THEN SPREAD WELL INLAND OVER MOST AREAS IN THE CWFA THROUGH EARLY WED
MORNING. WEAK UPPER RIDGE THAT MOVED OVER THE REGION IN THE LAST 24
HOURS WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION LATE TODAY AND
OVERNIGHT POSSIBLE LEADING TO SLIGHTLY BETTER MIXING IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER ALSO OVERNIGHT...WHICH COULD HELP SLOW THE GROWTH OF FOG DURING
THE EVENING. WITH THE BETTER RIDGING ALOFT ACROSS REGION TODAY THE
CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL REMAIN RATHER LOW FOR ALL AREAS. AS
FOR TEMPS WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE CURRENT MAV GUIDANCE THROUGH TONIGHT
UNDERCUTTING THESE VALUES A DEGREE OR TWO MOSTLY SOUTHWARD NEAR THE
COAST. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80 FOR MOST
INLAND AREAS AND THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST DUE
TO THE COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER
60S FOR MOST AREAS. 32/EE

[WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY]...LARGE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD AS A UPPER SHORTWAVE
MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS APPROACHES THE REGION.
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS LIKLEY TO CATEGORICAL COVERAGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT ADVANCES THROUGH THE AREA.
THE RAIN WILL THEN TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT
THE DAY THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY
WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S. LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S NORTHWEST OF I-65...AND FROM
THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50 SOUTHEAST OF I-65. /22

&&

.LONG TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...IT WILL BE COOL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT AND
WITH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINDER OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. WHILE IT
WILL BE DRY ON FRIDAY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL
RE-ENTER THE PICTURE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS A SERIES OF WEAK
UPPER DISTURBANCE AND SHORTWAVES EXIT THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES AND
TRAVERSE THE REGION. THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE MORE
AVAILABLE.HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 40 TO MID 50S
ON FRIDAY AND THEN STEADILY CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 60S BY MONDAY. THE
LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S AND
THEN STEADILY CLIMB INTO THE LOWER INTO THE 40S FOR BOTH SUNDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHTS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE LOWER 50S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS. /22

&&

.AVIATION...03.12Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF CYCLE...MOSTLY LIFR TO IFR
CIGS AND VISIBILITIES THROUGH 04.12Z. LOW STRATUS AND DENSE FOG WILL
BEGIN TO SLOWLY LIFT BY MID MORNING WITH CEILINGS REMAINING BELOW 1
KFT THROUGHOUT MOST OF TODAY. CEILINGS WILL DROP AGAIN THIS EVENING
WITH WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG FORMING NEAR THE COAST EARLY THIS EVENING
SPREADING AND FORMING WELL INLAND LATER IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL TERMINAL SITES THROUGH 9 AM
CST AND WILL LIKELY BE REISSUED AGAIN FOR TONIGHT AND EARLY THU
MORNING. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST INCREASING TO 8 TO 12 KT
LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON DIMINISH TO 4 TO 8 KNOTS THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. 32/EE

&&

.MARINE...AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT LOCAL BAYS AND
SOUNDS AND THE NEAR SHORE GULF WATERS THROUGH MIDWEEK. A LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH THIS
MORNING THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH AND BUILD THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF BY EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING...LEADING TO A STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW OVER THE MARINE
AREA THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS A BROAD SURFACE
RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTH. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE LIKELY ON
THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT LATER IN THE WEEK.
32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      72  61  76  47  47 /  20  20  30  60  50
PENSACOLA   73  60  75  56  58 /  20  20  30  50  50
DESTIN      67  60  71  60  62 /  20  20  30  40  50
EVERGREEN   81  60  76  48  54 /  20  20  30  70  50
WAYNESBORO  75  61  76  37  41 /  20  30  30  80  50
CAMDEN      79  61  75  42  44 /  20  20  40  80  50
CRESTVIEW   76  60  76  58  60 /  20  20  30  50  50

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR ALZ051>064.

FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR FLZ001>006.

MS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR MSZ067-075-
     076-078-079.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR GMZ630>635-
     650-655.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMOB 031137
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
537 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG WITH SURFACE
VISIBILITIES LOWERING TO LESS THAN 1/4 OF A MILE FOR MOST AREAS WILL
BEGIN TO SLOWLY LIFT BY 9 AM THIS MORNING. AS A RESULT A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FOR ALL AREAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 9 AM CST THIS MORNING.
DENSE FOG WILL LINGER NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST POSSIBLY INTO THE LATE
MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH A CONTINUE FLOW FROM OFF THE GULF
COMBINED WITH SFC DEWPOINT TEMPS CLIMBING TO THE LOWER 60S WIDESPREAD
DENSE FOG WILL LIKLEY REFORM OVER COASTAL AREAS EARLY THIS EVENING
THEN SPREAD WELL INLAND OVER MOST AREAS IN THE CWFA THROUGH EARLY WED
MORNING. WEAK UPPER RIDGE THAT MOVED OVER THE REGION IN THE LAST 24
HOURS WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION LATE TODAY AND
OVERNIGHT POSSIBLE LEADING TO SLIGHTLY BETTER MIXING IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER ALSO OVERNIGHT...WHICH COULD HELP SLOW THE GROWTH OF FOG DURING
THE EVENING. WITH THE BETTER RIDGING ALOFT ACROSS REGION TODAY THE
CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL REMAIN RATHER LOW FOR ALL AREAS. AS
FOR TEMPS WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE CURRENT MAV GUIDANCE THROUGH TONIGHT
UNDERCUTTING THESE VALUES A DEGREE OR TWO MOSTLY SOUTHWARD NEAR THE
COAST. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80 FOR MOST
INLAND AREAS AND THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST DUE
TO THE COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER
60S FOR MOST AREAS. 32/EE

[WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY]...LARGE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD AS A UPPER SHORTWAVE
MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS APPROACHES THE REGION.
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS LIKLEY TO CATEGORICAL COVERAGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT ADVANCES THROUGH THE AREA.
THE RAIN WILL THEN TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT
THE DAY THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY
WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S. LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S NORTHWEST OF I-65...AND FROM
THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50 SOUTHEAST OF I-65. /22

&&

.LONG TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...IT WILL BE COOL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT AND
WITH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINDER OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. WHILE IT
WILL BE DRY ON FRIDAY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL
RE-ENTER THE PICTURE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS A SERIES OF WEAK
UPPER DISTURBANCE AND SHORTWAVES EXIT THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES AND
TRAVERSE THE REGION. THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE MORE
AVAILABLE.HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 40 TO MID 50S
ON FRIDAY AND THEN STEADILY CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 60S BY MONDAY. THE
LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S AND
THEN STEADILY CLIMB INTO THE LOWER INTO THE 40S FOR BOTH SUNDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHTS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE LOWER 50S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS. /22

&&

.AVIATION...03.12Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF CYCLE...MOSTLY LIFR TO IFR
CIGS AND VISIBILITIES THROUGH 04.12Z. LOW STRATUS AND DENSE FOG WILL
BEGIN TO SLOWLY LIFT BY MID MORNING WITH CEILINGS REMAINING BELOW 1
KFT THROUGHOUT MOST OF TODAY. CEILINGS WILL DROP AGAIN THIS EVENING
WITH WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG FORMING NEAR THE COAST EARLY THIS EVENING
SPREADING AND FORMING WELL INLAND LATER IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL TERMINAL SITES THROUGH 9 AM
CST AND WILL LIKELY BE REISSUED AGAIN FOR TONIGHT AND EARLY THU
MORNING. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST INCREASING TO 8 TO 12 KT
LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON DIMINISH TO 4 TO 8 KNOTS THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. 32/EE

&&

.MARINE...AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT LOCAL BAYS AND
SOUNDS AND THE NEAR SHORE GULF WATERS THROUGH MIDWEEK. A LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH THIS
MORNING THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH AND BUILD THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF BY EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING...LEADING TO A STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW OVER THE MARINE
AREA THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS A BROAD SURFACE
RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTH. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE LIKELY ON
THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT LATER IN THE WEEK.
32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      72  61  76  47  47 /  20  20  30  60  50
PENSACOLA   73  60  75  56  58 /  20  20  30  50  50
DESTIN      67  60  71  60  62 /  20  20  30  40  50
EVERGREEN   81  60  76  48  54 /  20  20  30  70  50
WAYNESBORO  75  61  76  37  41 /  20  30  30  80  50
CAMDEN      79  61  75  42  44 /  20  20  40  80  50
CRESTVIEW   76  60  76  58  60 /  20  20  30  50  50

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR ALZ051>064.

FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR FLZ001>006.

MS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR MSZ067-075-
     076-078-079.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR GMZ630>635-
     650-655.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 031137
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
537 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG WITH SURFACE
VISIBILITIES LOWERING TO LESS THAN 1/4 OF A MILE FOR MOST AREAS WILL
BEGIN TO SLOWLY LIFT BY 9 AM THIS MORNING. AS A RESULT A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FOR ALL AREAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 9 AM CST THIS MORNING.
DENSE FOG WILL LINGER NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST POSSIBLY INTO THE LATE
MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH A CONTINUE FLOW FROM OFF THE GULF
COMBINED WITH SFC DEWPOINT TEMPS CLIMBING TO THE LOWER 60S WIDESPREAD
DENSE FOG WILL LIKLEY REFORM OVER COASTAL AREAS EARLY THIS EVENING
THEN SPREAD WELL INLAND OVER MOST AREAS IN THE CWFA THROUGH EARLY WED
MORNING. WEAK UPPER RIDGE THAT MOVED OVER THE REGION IN THE LAST 24
HOURS WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION LATE TODAY AND
OVERNIGHT POSSIBLE LEADING TO SLIGHTLY BETTER MIXING IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER ALSO OVERNIGHT...WHICH COULD HELP SLOW THE GROWTH OF FOG DURING
THE EVENING. WITH THE BETTER RIDGING ALOFT ACROSS REGION TODAY THE
CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL REMAIN RATHER LOW FOR ALL AREAS. AS
FOR TEMPS WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE CURRENT MAV GUIDANCE THROUGH TONIGHT
UNDERCUTTING THESE VALUES A DEGREE OR TWO MOSTLY SOUTHWARD NEAR THE
COAST. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80 FOR MOST
INLAND AREAS AND THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST DUE
TO THE COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER
60S FOR MOST AREAS. 32/EE

[WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY]...LARGE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD AS A UPPER SHORTWAVE
MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS APPROACHES THE REGION.
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS LIKLEY TO CATEGORICAL COVERAGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT ADVANCES THROUGH THE AREA.
THE RAIN WILL THEN TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT
THE DAY THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY
WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S. LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S NORTHWEST OF I-65...AND FROM
THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50 SOUTHEAST OF I-65. /22

&&

.LONG TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...IT WILL BE COOL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT AND
WITH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINDER OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. WHILE IT
WILL BE DRY ON FRIDAY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL
RE-ENTER THE PICTURE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS A SERIES OF WEAK
UPPER DISTURBANCE AND SHORTWAVES EXIT THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES AND
TRAVERSE THE REGION. THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE MORE
AVAILABLE.HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 40 TO MID 50S
ON FRIDAY AND THEN STEADILY CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 60S BY MONDAY. THE
LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S AND
THEN STEADILY CLIMB INTO THE LOWER INTO THE 40S FOR BOTH SUNDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHTS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE LOWER 50S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS. /22

&&

.AVIATION...03.12Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF CYCLE...MOSTLY LIFR TO IFR
CIGS AND VISIBILITIES THROUGH 04.12Z. LOW STRATUS AND DENSE FOG WILL
BEGIN TO SLOWLY LIFT BY MID MORNING WITH CEILINGS REMAINING BELOW 1
KFT THROUGHOUT MOST OF TODAY. CEILINGS WILL DROP AGAIN THIS EVENING
WITH WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG FORMING NEAR THE COAST EARLY THIS EVENING
SPREADING AND FORMING WELL INLAND LATER IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL TERMINAL SITES THROUGH 9 AM
CST AND WILL LIKELY BE REISSUED AGAIN FOR TONIGHT AND EARLY THU
MORNING. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST INCREASING TO 8 TO 12 KT
LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON DIMINISH TO 4 TO 8 KNOTS THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. 32/EE

&&

.MARINE...AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT LOCAL BAYS AND
SOUNDS AND THE NEAR SHORE GULF WATERS THROUGH MIDWEEK. A LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH THIS
MORNING THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH AND BUILD THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF BY EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING...LEADING TO A STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW OVER THE MARINE
AREA THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS A BROAD SURFACE
RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTH. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE LIKELY ON
THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT LATER IN THE WEEK.
32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      72  61  76  47  47 /  20  20  30  60  50
PENSACOLA   73  60  75  56  58 /  20  20  30  50  50
DESTIN      67  60  71  60  62 /  20  20  30  40  50
EVERGREEN   81  60  76  48  54 /  20  20  30  70  50
WAYNESBORO  75  61  76  37  41 /  20  30  30  80  50
CAMDEN      79  61  75  42  44 /  20  20  40  80  50
CRESTVIEW   76  60  76  58  60 /  20  20  30  50  50

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR ALZ051>064.

FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR FLZ001>006.

MS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR MSZ067-075-
     076-078-079.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR GMZ630>635-
     650-655.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 031137
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
537 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG WITH SURFACE
VISIBILITIES LOWERING TO LESS THAN 1/4 OF A MILE FOR MOST AREAS WILL
BEGIN TO SLOWLY LIFT BY 9 AM THIS MORNING. AS A RESULT A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FOR ALL AREAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 9 AM CST THIS MORNING.
DENSE FOG WILL LINGER NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST POSSIBLY INTO THE LATE
MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH A CONTINUE FLOW FROM OFF THE GULF
COMBINED WITH SFC DEWPOINT TEMPS CLIMBING TO THE LOWER 60S WIDESPREAD
DENSE FOG WILL LIKLEY REFORM OVER COASTAL AREAS EARLY THIS EVENING
THEN SPREAD WELL INLAND OVER MOST AREAS IN THE CWFA THROUGH EARLY WED
MORNING. WEAK UPPER RIDGE THAT MOVED OVER THE REGION IN THE LAST 24
HOURS WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION LATE TODAY AND
OVERNIGHT POSSIBLE LEADING TO SLIGHTLY BETTER MIXING IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER ALSO OVERNIGHT...WHICH COULD HELP SLOW THE GROWTH OF FOG DURING
THE EVENING. WITH THE BETTER RIDGING ALOFT ACROSS REGION TODAY THE
CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL REMAIN RATHER LOW FOR ALL AREAS. AS
FOR TEMPS WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE CURRENT MAV GUIDANCE THROUGH TONIGHT
UNDERCUTTING THESE VALUES A DEGREE OR TWO MOSTLY SOUTHWARD NEAR THE
COAST. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80 FOR MOST
INLAND AREAS AND THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST DUE
TO THE COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER
60S FOR MOST AREAS. 32/EE

[WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY]...LARGE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD AS A UPPER SHORTWAVE
MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS APPROACHES THE REGION.
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS LIKLEY TO CATEGORICAL COVERAGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT ADVANCES THROUGH THE AREA.
THE RAIN WILL THEN TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT
THE DAY THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY
WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S. LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S NORTHWEST OF I-65...AND FROM
THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50 SOUTHEAST OF I-65. /22

&&

.LONG TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...IT WILL BE COOL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT AND
WITH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINDER OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. WHILE IT
WILL BE DRY ON FRIDAY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL
RE-ENTER THE PICTURE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS A SERIES OF WEAK
UPPER DISTURBANCE AND SHORTWAVES EXIT THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES AND
TRAVERSE THE REGION. THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE MORE
AVAILABLE.HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 40 TO MID 50S
ON FRIDAY AND THEN STEADILY CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 60S BY MONDAY. THE
LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S AND
THEN STEADILY CLIMB INTO THE LOWER INTO THE 40S FOR BOTH SUNDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHTS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE LOWER 50S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS. /22

&&

.AVIATION...03.12Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF CYCLE...MOSTLY LIFR TO IFR
CIGS AND VISIBILITIES THROUGH 04.12Z. LOW STRATUS AND DENSE FOG WILL
BEGIN TO SLOWLY LIFT BY MID MORNING WITH CEILINGS REMAINING BELOW 1
KFT THROUGHOUT MOST OF TODAY. CEILINGS WILL DROP AGAIN THIS EVENING
WITH WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG FORMING NEAR THE COAST EARLY THIS EVENING
SPREADING AND FORMING WELL INLAND LATER IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL TERMINAL SITES THROUGH 9 AM
CST AND WILL LIKELY BE REISSUED AGAIN FOR TONIGHT AND EARLY THU
MORNING. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST INCREASING TO 8 TO 12 KT
LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON DIMINISH TO 4 TO 8 KNOTS THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. 32/EE

&&

.MARINE...AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT LOCAL BAYS AND
SOUNDS AND THE NEAR SHORE GULF WATERS THROUGH MIDWEEK. A LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH THIS
MORNING THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH AND BUILD THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF BY EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING...LEADING TO A STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW OVER THE MARINE
AREA THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS A BROAD SURFACE
RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTH. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE LIKELY ON
THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT LATER IN THE WEEK.
32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      72  61  76  47  47 /  20  20  30  60  50
PENSACOLA   73  60  75  56  58 /  20  20  30  50  50
DESTIN      67  60  71  60  62 /  20  20  30  40  50
EVERGREEN   81  60  76  48  54 /  20  20  30  70  50
WAYNESBORO  75  61  76  37  41 /  20  30  30  80  50
CAMDEN      79  61  75  42  44 /  20  20  40  80  50
CRESTVIEW   76  60  76  58  60 /  20  20  30  50  50

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR ALZ051>064.

FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR FLZ001>006.

MS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR MSZ067-075-
     076-078-079.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR GMZ630>635-
     650-655.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMOB 030558
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1158 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.AVIATION...
UPDATE FOR 03.06Z AREA FORECAST...LIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE AN ISSUE
THROUGH ABOUT 12Z...VISIBILITY GENERALLY LESS THAN 1/2 MILE IN RA/FG
AND CEILING AND VISIBILITY LESS THAN 500 FEET. CEILING AND
VISIBILITY WILL BECOME IFR AFTER 15Z...BUT POSSIBLY NOT UNTIL 18Z IN
SOME LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

77/BD

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA/

SHORT TERM...MULTIPLE ISSUES IN THE FORECAST. IT HAS BEEN FOGGY ALL
DAY AND JUST AS MOST OF THE FOG HAS STARTED TO LIFT THIS AFTERNOON IT
SHOULD COME CRASHING DOWN ONCE AGAIN THIS EVENING. RAIN CHANCES WILL
REMAIN LOW UNTIL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN INCREASE FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THROUGH THURSDAY MRONING. LAST BUT NOT LEAST IS THE CHANCE
OF SOME WINTER WEATHER FOR THE FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA
OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY.

VERY RICH MOISTURE CONTINUES TO MOVE IN FROM THE GULF AND EVEN
THOUGH FOG HAS IMPROVED ACROSS THE REGION THINGS SHOULD CHANGE
RATHER QUICKLY THIS EVENING ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
CWA. FOG AS PREVIOUS FORECASTER MENTIONED WILL INITIALLY BE THE
THICKEST CLOSE TO THE COAST AND THEN SPREAD NORTH THROUGH THE
EVENING. AS FOR RAIN CHANCES IT LOOKS LIKE THE REGION SHOULD REMAIN
MOSTLY RAIN FREE WITH RIDGE AXIS SLIDING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING.

TUE THINGS SHOULD BE QUIET AS SW FLOW BEGINS TO BECOME
RE-ESTABLISHED OVER THE REGION. A VERY POSITIVELY TILTED L/W TROUGH
SETS UP FROM NEAR THE SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY STRETCHING ALL THE WAY TO
THE SW INTO THE BAJA...YES THE TROUGH AXIS STRETCHES FROM NEAR THE
HUDSON BAY TO THE BAJA. WHILE THIS OCCURS A STRONG S/W EMBEDDED IN
THE UPSTREAM WILL DIG OUT OF WESTERN/CENTRAL CANADA AND INTO THE
HIGH PLAINS TUE NIGHT. THIS WILL BE THE FEATURE THAT WILL DRIVE
ANOTHER COLD AIRMASS SOUTH AND BRING ONE MORE BOUT OF WINTER WEATHER
TO THE DEEP SOUTH. THE COLD FRONT BY TUE EVENING WILL BE ENTERING
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND AND BEGIN TO SLOW DOWN WITH THE
BULK OF THE COLD AIRMASS JUST STARTING TO WORK SOUTH ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS.

ON WED AHEAD OF THIS FRONT ABUNDANT MOISTURE...UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS...AND BROAD LIFT ALOFT WILL LEAD TO SCT SHRA AND TSRA BUT
THE BULK OF THE FORCING WILL BE WITH AND POST FRONTAL. THIS COULD
LEAD TO AN ISSUE. THE AIRMASS WILL BE RATHER COLD AND DUE TO THE
AMOUNT OF SNOW AND EVEN ICE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE REGION
THIS AIRMASS WILL NOT MODERATE MUCH. TEMPERATURES COULD QUICKLY DROP
TO AND BELOW FREEZING IN THE FAR NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY WITH
PRECIPITATION CONTINUING. IN ADDITION THIS AIRMASS IS QUITE SHALLOW
WITH LL TEMPS WELL ABV FREEZING AND LATEST FORECAST SOUNDING
INDICATE THAT WHATEVER IS FALLING SHOULD COMPLETELY MELT LEADING TO
A POSSIBLE FREEZING RAIN ISSUE. THERE IS STILL A GREAT DEAL OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE GFS BEING THE MORE AGGRESSIVE MODEL WHILE THE
ECMWF IS HAS A SMALLER WINDOW FOR FREEZING RAIN THAT SAID IT IS
STARTING TO LOOK A LITTLE MORE LIKELY THAT THERE WILL BE SOME
FREEZING RAIN IN THE FAR NORTHWEST AFTER 6/9Z THU AND POSSIBLY
CONTINUING TILL 15/18Z THU. THINGS SHOULD QUICKLY TAPER OFF NW TO SE
THROUGH THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS. WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE
THIS IN THE GRIDS BUT IF THE GFS IS RIGHT THEN THE FROZEN PRECIP
WILL NEED TO BE BROUGHT DOWN FURTHER SOUTH SOME AND A TAD FURTHER
EAST. /CAB/

LONG TERM...NO CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AND PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION HAS BEEN APPENDED. /CAB/

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY THEN SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS RETURN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND INCREASE TO CHANCE
POPS BY SUNDAY AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.
HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 40 WELL INLAND TO THE LOWER
50S AT THE COAST AND LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
20S INLAND TO LOWER/MID 30S CLOSER TO THE COAST.  TEMPERATURES
GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S AND HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN THE
LOWER 60S. /29/

AVIATION...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE AN ISSUE THROUGH ABOUT 03Z BUT
THEN ALL TERMINALS SHOULD BEGIN TO GET SOCKED IN AGAIN. IFR IF NOT
LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND PERSIST
THROUGH ABOUT 15Z...POSSIBLY EVEN LASTING TILL 18Z TOMORROW. /CAB/

MARINE...AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE TO ALL BAYS...SOUNDS AND
THE NEAR SHORE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY ALL THE WAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. A LIGHT SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE MARINE
AREA THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY THEN SHIFT SOUTH AND BUILD THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...LEADING A
STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY. SEAS UP TO 9 FEET WELL OFFSHORE WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT. NORTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
THROUGH SATURDAY AS A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTH. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE LIKELY IN THE WAKE OF THE STRONG COLD
FRONT LATER IN THE WEEK. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      57  73  61  76 /  20  20  20  50
PENSACOLA   59  72  61  75 /  20  20  20  40
DESTIN      59  70  61  72 /  20  10  20  30
EVERGREEN   58  76  60  76 /  20  20  20  40
WAYNESBORO  57  75  61  76 /  30  20  30  50
CAMDEN      58  76  61  75 /  30  20  20  40
CRESTVIEW   57  76  60  77 /  20  10  20  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST TUESDAY FOR ALZ051>064.

FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST TUESDAY FOR FLZ001>006.

MS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST TUESDAY FOR MSZ067-075-076-078-
     079.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST TUESDAY FOR GMZ630>635-650-655.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMOB 030558
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1158 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.AVIATION...
UPDATE FOR 03.06Z AREA FORECAST...LIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE AN ISSUE
THROUGH ABOUT 12Z...VISIBILITY GENERALLY LESS THAN 1/2 MILE IN RA/FG
AND CEILING AND VISIBILITY LESS THAN 500 FEET. CEILING AND
VISIBILITY WILL BECOME IFR AFTER 15Z...BUT POSSIBLY NOT UNTIL 18Z IN
SOME LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

77/BD

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA/

SHORT TERM...MULTIPLE ISSUES IN THE FORECAST. IT HAS BEEN FOGGY ALL
DAY AND JUST AS MOST OF THE FOG HAS STARTED TO LIFT THIS AFTERNOON IT
SHOULD COME CRASHING DOWN ONCE AGAIN THIS EVENING. RAIN CHANCES WILL
REMAIN LOW UNTIL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN INCREASE FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THROUGH THURSDAY MRONING. LAST BUT NOT LEAST IS THE CHANCE
OF SOME WINTER WEATHER FOR THE FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA
OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY.

VERY RICH MOISTURE CONTINUES TO MOVE IN FROM THE GULF AND EVEN
THOUGH FOG HAS IMPROVED ACROSS THE REGION THINGS SHOULD CHANGE
RATHER QUICKLY THIS EVENING ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
CWA. FOG AS PREVIOUS FORECASTER MENTIONED WILL INITIALLY BE THE
THICKEST CLOSE TO THE COAST AND THEN SPREAD NORTH THROUGH THE
EVENING. AS FOR RAIN CHANCES IT LOOKS LIKE THE REGION SHOULD REMAIN
MOSTLY RAIN FREE WITH RIDGE AXIS SLIDING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING.

TUE THINGS SHOULD BE QUIET AS SW FLOW BEGINS TO BECOME
RE-ESTABLISHED OVER THE REGION. A VERY POSITIVELY TILTED L/W TROUGH
SETS UP FROM NEAR THE SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY STRETCHING ALL THE WAY TO
THE SW INTO THE BAJA...YES THE TROUGH AXIS STRETCHES FROM NEAR THE
HUDSON BAY TO THE BAJA. WHILE THIS OCCURS A STRONG S/W EMBEDDED IN
THE UPSTREAM WILL DIG OUT OF WESTERN/CENTRAL CANADA AND INTO THE
HIGH PLAINS TUE NIGHT. THIS WILL BE THE FEATURE THAT WILL DRIVE
ANOTHER COLD AIRMASS SOUTH AND BRING ONE MORE BOUT OF WINTER WEATHER
TO THE DEEP SOUTH. THE COLD FRONT BY TUE EVENING WILL BE ENTERING
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND AND BEGIN TO SLOW DOWN WITH THE
BULK OF THE COLD AIRMASS JUST STARTING TO WORK SOUTH ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS.

ON WED AHEAD OF THIS FRONT ABUNDANT MOISTURE...UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS...AND BROAD LIFT ALOFT WILL LEAD TO SCT SHRA AND TSRA BUT
THE BULK OF THE FORCING WILL BE WITH AND POST FRONTAL. THIS COULD
LEAD TO AN ISSUE. THE AIRMASS WILL BE RATHER COLD AND DUE TO THE
AMOUNT OF SNOW AND EVEN ICE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE REGION
THIS AIRMASS WILL NOT MODERATE MUCH. TEMPERATURES COULD QUICKLY DROP
TO AND BELOW FREEZING IN THE FAR NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY WITH
PRECIPITATION CONTINUING. IN ADDITION THIS AIRMASS IS QUITE SHALLOW
WITH LL TEMPS WELL ABV FREEZING AND LATEST FORECAST SOUNDING
INDICATE THAT WHATEVER IS FALLING SHOULD COMPLETELY MELT LEADING TO
A POSSIBLE FREEZING RAIN ISSUE. THERE IS STILL A GREAT DEAL OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE GFS BEING THE MORE AGGRESSIVE MODEL WHILE THE
ECMWF IS HAS A SMALLER WINDOW FOR FREEZING RAIN THAT SAID IT IS
STARTING TO LOOK A LITTLE MORE LIKELY THAT THERE WILL BE SOME
FREEZING RAIN IN THE FAR NORTHWEST AFTER 6/9Z THU AND POSSIBLY
CONTINUING TILL 15/18Z THU. THINGS SHOULD QUICKLY TAPER OFF NW TO SE
THROUGH THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS. WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE
THIS IN THE GRIDS BUT IF THE GFS IS RIGHT THEN THE FROZEN PRECIP
WILL NEED TO BE BROUGHT DOWN FURTHER SOUTH SOME AND A TAD FURTHER
EAST. /CAB/

LONG TERM...NO CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AND PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION HAS BEEN APPENDED. /CAB/

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY THEN SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS RETURN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND INCREASE TO CHANCE
POPS BY SUNDAY AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.
HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 40 WELL INLAND TO THE LOWER
50S AT THE COAST AND LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
20S INLAND TO LOWER/MID 30S CLOSER TO THE COAST.  TEMPERATURES
GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S AND HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN THE
LOWER 60S. /29/

AVIATION...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE AN ISSUE THROUGH ABOUT 03Z BUT
THEN ALL TERMINALS SHOULD BEGIN TO GET SOCKED IN AGAIN. IFR IF NOT
LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND PERSIST
THROUGH ABOUT 15Z...POSSIBLY EVEN LASTING TILL 18Z TOMORROW. /CAB/

MARINE...AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE TO ALL BAYS...SOUNDS AND
THE NEAR SHORE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY ALL THE WAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. A LIGHT SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE MARINE
AREA THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY THEN SHIFT SOUTH AND BUILD THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...LEADING A
STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY. SEAS UP TO 9 FEET WELL OFFSHORE WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT. NORTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
THROUGH SATURDAY AS A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTH. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE LIKELY IN THE WAKE OF THE STRONG COLD
FRONT LATER IN THE WEEK. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      57  73  61  76 /  20  20  20  50
PENSACOLA   59  72  61  75 /  20  20  20  40
DESTIN      59  70  61  72 /  20  10  20  30
EVERGREEN   58  76  60  76 /  20  20  20  40
WAYNESBORO  57  75  61  76 /  30  20  30  50
CAMDEN      58  76  61  75 /  30  20  20  40
CRESTVIEW   57  76  60  77 /  20  10  20  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST TUESDAY FOR ALZ051>064.

FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST TUESDAY FOR FLZ001>006.

MS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST TUESDAY FOR MSZ067-075-076-078-
     079.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST TUESDAY FOR GMZ630>635-650-655.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 030558
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1158 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.AVIATION...
UPDATE FOR 03.06Z AREA FORECAST...LIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE AN ISSUE
THROUGH ABOUT 12Z...VISIBILITY GENERALLY LESS THAN 1/2 MILE IN RA/FG
AND CEILING AND VISIBILITY LESS THAN 500 FEET. CEILING AND
VISIBILITY WILL BECOME IFR AFTER 15Z...BUT POSSIBLY NOT UNTIL 18Z IN
SOME LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

77/BD

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA/

SHORT TERM...MULTIPLE ISSUES IN THE FORECAST. IT HAS BEEN FOGGY ALL
DAY AND JUST AS MOST OF THE FOG HAS STARTED TO LIFT THIS AFTERNOON IT
SHOULD COME CRASHING DOWN ONCE AGAIN THIS EVENING. RAIN CHANCES WILL
REMAIN LOW UNTIL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN INCREASE FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THROUGH THURSDAY MRONING. LAST BUT NOT LEAST IS THE CHANCE
OF SOME WINTER WEATHER FOR THE FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA
OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY.

VERY RICH MOISTURE CONTINUES TO MOVE IN FROM THE GULF AND EVEN
THOUGH FOG HAS IMPROVED ACROSS THE REGION THINGS SHOULD CHANGE
RATHER QUICKLY THIS EVENING ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
CWA. FOG AS PREVIOUS FORECASTER MENTIONED WILL INITIALLY BE THE
THICKEST CLOSE TO THE COAST AND THEN SPREAD NORTH THROUGH THE
EVENING. AS FOR RAIN CHANCES IT LOOKS LIKE THE REGION SHOULD REMAIN
MOSTLY RAIN FREE WITH RIDGE AXIS SLIDING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING.

TUE THINGS SHOULD BE QUIET AS SW FLOW BEGINS TO BECOME
RE-ESTABLISHED OVER THE REGION. A VERY POSITIVELY TILTED L/W TROUGH
SETS UP FROM NEAR THE SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY STRETCHING ALL THE WAY TO
THE SW INTO THE BAJA...YES THE TROUGH AXIS STRETCHES FROM NEAR THE
HUDSON BAY TO THE BAJA. WHILE THIS OCCURS A STRONG S/W EMBEDDED IN
THE UPSTREAM WILL DIG OUT OF WESTERN/CENTRAL CANADA AND INTO THE
HIGH PLAINS TUE NIGHT. THIS WILL BE THE FEATURE THAT WILL DRIVE
ANOTHER COLD AIRMASS SOUTH AND BRING ONE MORE BOUT OF WINTER WEATHER
TO THE DEEP SOUTH. THE COLD FRONT BY TUE EVENING WILL BE ENTERING
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND AND BEGIN TO SLOW DOWN WITH THE
BULK OF THE COLD AIRMASS JUST STARTING TO WORK SOUTH ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS.

ON WED AHEAD OF THIS FRONT ABUNDANT MOISTURE...UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS...AND BROAD LIFT ALOFT WILL LEAD TO SCT SHRA AND TSRA BUT
THE BULK OF THE FORCING WILL BE WITH AND POST FRONTAL. THIS COULD
LEAD TO AN ISSUE. THE AIRMASS WILL BE RATHER COLD AND DUE TO THE
AMOUNT OF SNOW AND EVEN ICE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE REGION
THIS AIRMASS WILL NOT MODERATE MUCH. TEMPERATURES COULD QUICKLY DROP
TO AND BELOW FREEZING IN THE FAR NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY WITH
PRECIPITATION CONTINUING. IN ADDITION THIS AIRMASS IS QUITE SHALLOW
WITH LL TEMPS WELL ABV FREEZING AND LATEST FORECAST SOUNDING
INDICATE THAT WHATEVER IS FALLING SHOULD COMPLETELY MELT LEADING TO
A POSSIBLE FREEZING RAIN ISSUE. THERE IS STILL A GREAT DEAL OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE GFS BEING THE MORE AGGRESSIVE MODEL WHILE THE
ECMWF IS HAS A SMALLER WINDOW FOR FREEZING RAIN THAT SAID IT IS
STARTING TO LOOK A LITTLE MORE LIKELY THAT THERE WILL BE SOME
FREEZING RAIN IN THE FAR NORTHWEST AFTER 6/9Z THU AND POSSIBLY
CONTINUING TILL 15/18Z THU. THINGS SHOULD QUICKLY TAPER OFF NW TO SE
THROUGH THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS. WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE
THIS IN THE GRIDS BUT IF THE GFS IS RIGHT THEN THE FROZEN PRECIP
WILL NEED TO BE BROUGHT DOWN FURTHER SOUTH SOME AND A TAD FURTHER
EAST. /CAB/

LONG TERM...NO CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AND PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION HAS BEEN APPENDED. /CAB/

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY THEN SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS RETURN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND INCREASE TO CHANCE
POPS BY SUNDAY AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.
HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 40 WELL INLAND TO THE LOWER
50S AT THE COAST AND LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
20S INLAND TO LOWER/MID 30S CLOSER TO THE COAST.  TEMPERATURES
GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S AND HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN THE
LOWER 60S. /29/

AVIATION...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE AN ISSUE THROUGH ABOUT 03Z BUT
THEN ALL TERMINALS SHOULD BEGIN TO GET SOCKED IN AGAIN. IFR IF NOT
LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND PERSIST
THROUGH ABOUT 15Z...POSSIBLY EVEN LASTING TILL 18Z TOMORROW. /CAB/

MARINE...AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE TO ALL BAYS...SOUNDS AND
THE NEAR SHORE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY ALL THE WAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. A LIGHT SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE MARINE
AREA THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY THEN SHIFT SOUTH AND BUILD THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...LEADING A
STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY. SEAS UP TO 9 FEET WELL OFFSHORE WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT. NORTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
THROUGH SATURDAY AS A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTH. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE LIKELY IN THE WAKE OF THE STRONG COLD
FRONT LATER IN THE WEEK. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      57  73  61  76 /  20  20  20  50
PENSACOLA   59  72  61  75 /  20  20  20  40
DESTIN      59  70  61  72 /  20  10  20  30
EVERGREEN   58  76  60  76 /  20  20  20  40
WAYNESBORO  57  75  61  76 /  30  20  30  50
CAMDEN      58  76  61  75 /  30  20  20  40
CRESTVIEW   57  76  60  77 /  20  10  20  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST TUESDAY FOR ALZ051>064.

FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST TUESDAY FOR FLZ001>006.

MS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST TUESDAY FOR MSZ067-075-076-078-
     079.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST TUESDAY FOR GMZ630>635-650-655.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMOB 030558
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1158 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.AVIATION...
UPDATE FOR 03.06Z AREA FORECAST...LIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE AN ISSUE
THROUGH ABOUT 12Z...VISIBILITY GENERALLY LESS THAN 1/2 MILE IN RA/FG
AND CEILING AND VISIBILITY LESS THAN 500 FEET. CEILING AND
VISIBILITY WILL BECOME IFR AFTER 15Z...BUT POSSIBLY NOT UNTIL 18Z IN
SOME LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

77/BD

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA/

SHORT TERM...MULTIPLE ISSUES IN THE FORECAST. IT HAS BEEN FOGGY ALL
DAY AND JUST AS MOST OF THE FOG HAS STARTED TO LIFT THIS AFTERNOON IT
SHOULD COME CRASHING DOWN ONCE AGAIN THIS EVENING. RAIN CHANCES WILL
REMAIN LOW UNTIL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN INCREASE FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THROUGH THURSDAY MRONING. LAST BUT NOT LEAST IS THE CHANCE
OF SOME WINTER WEATHER FOR THE FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA
OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY.

VERY RICH MOISTURE CONTINUES TO MOVE IN FROM THE GULF AND EVEN
THOUGH FOG HAS IMPROVED ACROSS THE REGION THINGS SHOULD CHANGE
RATHER QUICKLY THIS EVENING ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
CWA. FOG AS PREVIOUS FORECASTER MENTIONED WILL INITIALLY BE THE
THICKEST CLOSE TO THE COAST AND THEN SPREAD NORTH THROUGH THE
EVENING. AS FOR RAIN CHANCES IT LOOKS LIKE THE REGION SHOULD REMAIN
MOSTLY RAIN FREE WITH RIDGE AXIS SLIDING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING.

TUE THINGS SHOULD BE QUIET AS SW FLOW BEGINS TO BECOME
RE-ESTABLISHED OVER THE REGION. A VERY POSITIVELY TILTED L/W TROUGH
SETS UP FROM NEAR THE SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY STRETCHING ALL THE WAY TO
THE SW INTO THE BAJA...YES THE TROUGH AXIS STRETCHES FROM NEAR THE
HUDSON BAY TO THE BAJA. WHILE THIS OCCURS A STRONG S/W EMBEDDED IN
THE UPSTREAM WILL DIG OUT OF WESTERN/CENTRAL CANADA AND INTO THE
HIGH PLAINS TUE NIGHT. THIS WILL BE THE FEATURE THAT WILL DRIVE
ANOTHER COLD AIRMASS SOUTH AND BRING ONE MORE BOUT OF WINTER WEATHER
TO THE DEEP SOUTH. THE COLD FRONT BY TUE EVENING WILL BE ENTERING
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND AND BEGIN TO SLOW DOWN WITH THE
BULK OF THE COLD AIRMASS JUST STARTING TO WORK SOUTH ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS.

ON WED AHEAD OF THIS FRONT ABUNDANT MOISTURE...UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS...AND BROAD LIFT ALOFT WILL LEAD TO SCT SHRA AND TSRA BUT
THE BULK OF THE FORCING WILL BE WITH AND POST FRONTAL. THIS COULD
LEAD TO AN ISSUE. THE AIRMASS WILL BE RATHER COLD AND DUE TO THE
AMOUNT OF SNOW AND EVEN ICE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE REGION
THIS AIRMASS WILL NOT MODERATE MUCH. TEMPERATURES COULD QUICKLY DROP
TO AND BELOW FREEZING IN THE FAR NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY WITH
PRECIPITATION CONTINUING. IN ADDITION THIS AIRMASS IS QUITE SHALLOW
WITH LL TEMPS WELL ABV FREEZING AND LATEST FORECAST SOUNDING
INDICATE THAT WHATEVER IS FALLING SHOULD COMPLETELY MELT LEADING TO
A POSSIBLE FREEZING RAIN ISSUE. THERE IS STILL A GREAT DEAL OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE GFS BEING THE MORE AGGRESSIVE MODEL WHILE THE
ECMWF IS HAS A SMALLER WINDOW FOR FREEZING RAIN THAT SAID IT IS
STARTING TO LOOK A LITTLE MORE LIKELY THAT THERE WILL BE SOME
FREEZING RAIN IN THE FAR NORTHWEST AFTER 6/9Z THU AND POSSIBLY
CONTINUING TILL 15/18Z THU. THINGS SHOULD QUICKLY TAPER OFF NW TO SE
THROUGH THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS. WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE
THIS IN THE GRIDS BUT IF THE GFS IS RIGHT THEN THE FROZEN PRECIP
WILL NEED TO BE BROUGHT DOWN FURTHER SOUTH SOME AND A TAD FURTHER
EAST. /CAB/

LONG TERM...NO CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AND PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION HAS BEEN APPENDED. /CAB/

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY THEN SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS RETURN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND INCREASE TO CHANCE
POPS BY SUNDAY AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.
HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 40 WELL INLAND TO THE LOWER
50S AT THE COAST AND LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
20S INLAND TO LOWER/MID 30S CLOSER TO THE COAST.  TEMPERATURES
GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S AND HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN THE
LOWER 60S. /29/

AVIATION...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE AN ISSUE THROUGH ABOUT 03Z BUT
THEN ALL TERMINALS SHOULD BEGIN TO GET SOCKED IN AGAIN. IFR IF NOT
LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND PERSIST
THROUGH ABOUT 15Z...POSSIBLY EVEN LASTING TILL 18Z TOMORROW. /CAB/

MARINE...AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE TO ALL BAYS...SOUNDS AND
THE NEAR SHORE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY ALL THE WAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. A LIGHT SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE MARINE
AREA THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY THEN SHIFT SOUTH AND BUILD THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...LEADING A
STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY. SEAS UP TO 9 FEET WELL OFFSHORE WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT. NORTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
THROUGH SATURDAY AS A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTH. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE LIKELY IN THE WAKE OF THE STRONG COLD
FRONT LATER IN THE WEEK. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      57  73  61  76 /  20  20  20  50
PENSACOLA   59  72  61  75 /  20  20  20  40
DESTIN      59  70  61  72 /  20  10  20  30
EVERGREEN   58  76  60  76 /  20  20  20  40
WAYNESBORO  57  75  61  76 /  30  20  30  50
CAMDEN      58  76  61  75 /  30  20  20  40
CRESTVIEW   57  76  60  77 /  20  10  20  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST TUESDAY FOR ALZ051>064.

FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST TUESDAY FOR FLZ001>006.

MS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST TUESDAY FOR MSZ067-075-076-078-
     079.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST TUESDAY FOR GMZ630>635-650-655.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 022127
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
327 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...MULTIPLE ISSUES IN THE FORECAST. IT HAS BEEN FOGGY ALL
DAY AND JUST AS MOST OF THE FOG HAS STARTED TO LIFT THIS AFTERNOON IT
SHOULD COME CRASHING DOWN ONCE AGAIN THIS EVENING. RAIN CHANCES WILL
REMAIN LOW UNTIL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN INCREASE FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THROUGH THURSDAY MRONING. LAST BUT NOT LEAST IS THE CHANCE
OF SOME WINTER WEATHER FOR THE FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA
OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY.

VERY RICH MOISTURE CONTINUES TO MOVE IN FROM THE GULF AND EVEN
THOUGH FOG HAS IMPROVED ACROSS THE REGION THINGS SHOULD CHANGE
RATHER QUICKLY THIS EVENING ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
CWA. FOG AS PREVIOUS FORECASTER MENTIONED WILL INITIALLY BE THE
THICKEST CLOSE TO THE COAST AND THEN SPREAD NORTH THROUGH THE
EVENING. AS FOR RAIN CHANCES IT LOOKS LIKE THE REGION SHOULD REMAIN
MOSTLY RAIN FREE WITH RIDGE AXIS SLIDING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING.

TUE THINGS SHOULD BE QUIET AS SW FLOW BEGINS TO BECOME
RE-ESTABLISHED OVER THE REGION. A VERY POSITIVELY TILTED L/W TROUGH
SETS UP FROM NEAR THE SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY STRETCHING ALL THE WAY TO
THE SW INTO THE BAJA...YES THE TROUGH AXIS STRETCHES FROM NEAR THE
HUDSON BAY TO THE BAJA. WHILE THIS OCCURS A STRONG S/W EMBEDDED IN
THE UPSTREAM WILL DIG OUT OF WESTERN/CENTRAL CANADA AND INTO THE
HIGH PLAINS TUE NIGHT. THIS WILL BE THE FEATURE THAT WILL DRIVE
ANOTHER COLD AIRMASS SOUTH AND BRING ONE MORE BOUT OF WINTER WEATHER
TO THE DEEP SOUTH. THE COLD FRONT BY TUE EVENING WILL BE ENTERING
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND AND BEGIN TO SLOW DOWN WITH THE
BULK OF THE COLD AIRMASS JUST STARTING TO WORK SOUTH ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS.

ON WED AHEAD OF THIS FRONT ABUNDANT MOISTURE...UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS...AND BROAD LIFT ALOFT WILL LEAD TO SCT SHRA AND TSRA BUT
THE BULK OF THE FORCING WILL BE WITH AND POST FRONTAL. THIS COULD
LEAD TO AN ISSUE. THE AIRMASS WILL BE RATHER COLD AND DUE TO THE
AMOUNT OF SNOW AND EVEN ICE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE REGION
THIS AIRMASS WILL NOT MODERATE MUCH. TEMPERATURES COULD QUICKLY DROP
TO AND BELOW FREEZING IN THE FAR NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY WITH
PRECIPITATION CONTINUING. IN ADDITION THIS AIRMASS IS QUITE SHALLOW
WITH LL TEMPS WELL ABV FREEZING AND LATEST FORECAST SOUNDING
INDICATE THAT WHATEVER IS FALLING SHOULD COMPLETELY MELT LEADING TO
A POSSIBLE FREEZING RAIN ISSUE. THERE IS STILL A GREAT DEAL OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE GFS BEING THE MORE AGGRESSIVE MODEL WHILE THE
ECMWF IS HAS A SMALLER WINDOW FOR FREEZING RAIN THAT SAID IT IS
STARTING TO LOOK A LITTLE MORE LIKELY THAT THERE WILL BE SOME
FREEZING RAIN IN THE FAR NORTHWEST AFTER 6/9Z THU AND POSSIBLY
CONTINUING TILL 15/18Z THU. THINGS SHOULD QUICKLY TAPER OFF NW TO SE
THROUGH THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS. WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE
THIS IN THE GRIDS BUT IF THE GFS IS RIGHT THEN THE FROZEN PRECIP
WILL NEED TO BE BROUGHT DOWN FURTHER SOUTH SOME AND A TAD FURTHER
EAST. /CAB/

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AND PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION HAS BEEN APPENDED. /CAB/

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY THEN SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS RETURN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND INCREASE TO CHANCE
POPS BY SUNDAY AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.
HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 40 WELL INLAND TO THE LOWER
50S AT THE COAST AND LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
20S INLAND TO LOWER/MID 30S CLOSER TO THE COAST.  TEMPERATURES
GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S AND HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN THE
LOWER 60S. /29/

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE AN ISSUE THROUGH ABOUT 03Z BUT
THEN ALL TERMINALS SHOULD BEGIN TO GET SOCKED IN AGAIN. IFR IF NOT
LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND PERSIST
THROUGH ABOUT 15Z...POSSIBLY EVEN LASTING TILL 18Z TOMORROW. /CAB/


MARINE...AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE TO ALL BAYS...SOUNDS AND
THE NEAR SHORE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY ALL THE WAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. A LIGHT SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE MARINE
AREA THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY THEN SHIFT SOUTH AND BUILD THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...LEADING A
STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY. SEAS UP TO 9 FEET WELL OFFSHORE WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT. NORTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
THROUGH SATURDAY AS A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTH. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE LIKELY IN THE WAKE OF THE STRONG COLD
FRONT LATER IN THE WEEK. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      58  73  60  77  37 /  20  20  20  50  50
PENSACOLA   59  72  62  75  47 /  20  20  20  40  50
DESTIN      59  70  62  73  53 /  20  10  20  30  40
EVERGREEN   59  76  59  80  41 /  20  20  20  40  70
WAYNESBORO  59  75  61  78  31 /  30  20  30  40  80
CAMDEN      58  76  60  77  32 /  30  20  20  40  80
CRESTVIEW   58  76  58  79  51 /  20  10  20  30  50

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 9 PM MONDAY TO 9 AM TUESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BUTLER...CHOCTAW...CLARKE...CONECUH...
     COVINGTON...CRENSHAW...ESCAMBIA...LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER
     MOBILE...MONROE...UPPER BALDWIN...UPPER MOBILE...
     WASHINGTON...WILCOX...

FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 9 PM MONDAY TO 9 AM TUESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...
     COASTAL SANTA ROSA...INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...
     INLAND SANTA ROSA...

MS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 9 PM MONDAY TO 9 AM TUESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: GEORGE...GREENE...PERRY...STONE...WAYNE...

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO
     PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL
     TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...NORTHERN
     MOBILE BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...PERDIDO BAY...SOUTHERN
     MOBILE BAY...

&&

$$

CAB






000
FXUS64 KMOB 022127
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
327 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...MULTIPLE ISSUES IN THE FORECAST. IT HAS BEEN FOGGY ALL
DAY AND JUST AS MOST OF THE FOG HAS STARTED TO LIFT THIS AFTERNOON IT
SHOULD COME CRASHING DOWN ONCE AGAIN THIS EVENING. RAIN CHANCES WILL
REMAIN LOW UNTIL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN INCREASE FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THROUGH THURSDAY MRONING. LAST BUT NOT LEAST IS THE CHANCE
OF SOME WINTER WEATHER FOR THE FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA
OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY.

VERY RICH MOISTURE CONTINUES TO MOVE IN FROM THE GULF AND EVEN
THOUGH FOG HAS IMPROVED ACROSS THE REGION THINGS SHOULD CHANGE
RATHER QUICKLY THIS EVENING ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
CWA. FOG AS PREVIOUS FORECASTER MENTIONED WILL INITIALLY BE THE
THICKEST CLOSE TO THE COAST AND THEN SPREAD NORTH THROUGH THE
EVENING. AS FOR RAIN CHANCES IT LOOKS LIKE THE REGION SHOULD REMAIN
MOSTLY RAIN FREE WITH RIDGE AXIS SLIDING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING.

TUE THINGS SHOULD BE QUIET AS SW FLOW BEGINS TO BECOME
RE-ESTABLISHED OVER THE REGION. A VERY POSITIVELY TILTED L/W TROUGH
SETS UP FROM NEAR THE SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY STRETCHING ALL THE WAY TO
THE SW INTO THE BAJA...YES THE TROUGH AXIS STRETCHES FROM NEAR THE
HUDSON BAY TO THE BAJA. WHILE THIS OCCURS A STRONG S/W EMBEDDED IN
THE UPSTREAM WILL DIG OUT OF WESTERN/CENTRAL CANADA AND INTO THE
HIGH PLAINS TUE NIGHT. THIS WILL BE THE FEATURE THAT WILL DRIVE
ANOTHER COLD AIRMASS SOUTH AND BRING ONE MORE BOUT OF WINTER WEATHER
TO THE DEEP SOUTH. THE COLD FRONT BY TUE EVENING WILL BE ENTERING
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND AND BEGIN TO SLOW DOWN WITH THE
BULK OF THE COLD AIRMASS JUST STARTING TO WORK SOUTH ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS.

ON WED AHEAD OF THIS FRONT ABUNDANT MOISTURE...UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS...AND BROAD LIFT ALOFT WILL LEAD TO SCT SHRA AND TSRA BUT
THE BULK OF THE FORCING WILL BE WITH AND POST FRONTAL. THIS COULD
LEAD TO AN ISSUE. THE AIRMASS WILL BE RATHER COLD AND DUE TO THE
AMOUNT OF SNOW AND EVEN ICE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE REGION
THIS AIRMASS WILL NOT MODERATE MUCH. TEMPERATURES COULD QUICKLY DROP
TO AND BELOW FREEZING IN THE FAR NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY WITH
PRECIPITATION CONTINUING. IN ADDITION THIS AIRMASS IS QUITE SHALLOW
WITH LL TEMPS WELL ABV FREEZING AND LATEST FORECAST SOUNDING
INDICATE THAT WHATEVER IS FALLING SHOULD COMPLETELY MELT LEADING TO
A POSSIBLE FREEZING RAIN ISSUE. THERE IS STILL A GREAT DEAL OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE GFS BEING THE MORE AGGRESSIVE MODEL WHILE THE
ECMWF IS HAS A SMALLER WINDOW FOR FREEZING RAIN THAT SAID IT IS
STARTING TO LOOK A LITTLE MORE LIKELY THAT THERE WILL BE SOME
FREEZING RAIN IN THE FAR NORTHWEST AFTER 6/9Z THU AND POSSIBLY
CONTINUING TILL 15/18Z THU. THINGS SHOULD QUICKLY TAPER OFF NW TO SE
THROUGH THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS. WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE
THIS IN THE GRIDS BUT IF THE GFS IS RIGHT THEN THE FROZEN PRECIP
WILL NEED TO BE BROUGHT DOWN FURTHER SOUTH SOME AND A TAD FURTHER
EAST. /CAB/

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AND PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION HAS BEEN APPENDED. /CAB/

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY THEN SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS RETURN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND INCREASE TO CHANCE
POPS BY SUNDAY AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.
HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 40 WELL INLAND TO THE LOWER
50S AT THE COAST AND LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
20S INLAND TO LOWER/MID 30S CLOSER TO THE COAST.  TEMPERATURES
GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S AND HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN THE
LOWER 60S. /29/

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE AN ISSUE THROUGH ABOUT 03Z BUT
THEN ALL TERMINALS SHOULD BEGIN TO GET SOCKED IN AGAIN. IFR IF NOT
LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND PERSIST
THROUGH ABOUT 15Z...POSSIBLY EVEN LASTING TILL 18Z TOMORROW. /CAB/


MARINE...AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE TO ALL BAYS...SOUNDS AND
THE NEAR SHORE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY ALL THE WAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. A LIGHT SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE MARINE
AREA THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY THEN SHIFT SOUTH AND BUILD THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...LEADING A
STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY. SEAS UP TO 9 FEET WELL OFFSHORE WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT. NORTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
THROUGH SATURDAY AS A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTH. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE LIKELY IN THE WAKE OF THE STRONG COLD
FRONT LATER IN THE WEEK. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      58  73  60  77  37 /  20  20  20  50  50
PENSACOLA   59  72  62  75  47 /  20  20  20  40  50
DESTIN      59  70  62  73  53 /  20  10  20  30  40
EVERGREEN   59  76  59  80  41 /  20  20  20  40  70
WAYNESBORO  59  75  61  78  31 /  30  20  30  40  80
CAMDEN      58  76  60  77  32 /  30  20  20  40  80
CRESTVIEW   58  76  58  79  51 /  20  10  20  30  50

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 9 PM MONDAY TO 9 AM TUESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BUTLER...CHOCTAW...CLARKE...CONECUH...
     COVINGTON...CRENSHAW...ESCAMBIA...LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER
     MOBILE...MONROE...UPPER BALDWIN...UPPER MOBILE...
     WASHINGTON...WILCOX...

FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 9 PM MONDAY TO 9 AM TUESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...
     COASTAL SANTA ROSA...INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...
     INLAND SANTA ROSA...

MS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 9 PM MONDAY TO 9 AM TUESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: GEORGE...GREENE...PERRY...STONE...WAYNE...

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO
     PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL
     TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...NORTHERN
     MOBILE BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...PERDIDO BAY...SOUTHERN
     MOBILE BAY...

&&

$$

CAB





000
FXUS64 KMOB 021320 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
720 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.UPDATE...DID A QUICK UPDATE TO CURRENT ZONE FORECAST TO LOWER POPS
A TAD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS MORNING. LATEST RADAR LOOPS CONTINUE
TO SHOW THE HEAVIER PRECIP JUST TO THE WEST EARLIER THIS MORNING
ERODING SLOWLY OVER THE FORECAST AREA AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST.
DENSE FOG NOW OCCURRING IN MOST PLACES IN THE CWFA WILL BE SLOW TO
LIFT THIS LATER MORNING. AS A RESULT THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY NEED
TO EXTENDED LATER THIS MORNING. STAY TUNE FOR FURTHER UPDATES. 32/EE

&&

.MARINE...DID A QUICK UPDATE TO THE CURRENT MARINE FORECAST MAINLY TO
ADJUST RAIN CHANCES FOR PRECIP FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS MORNING.
DENSE FOG WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT TODAY POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO THE LATE
MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. AS A RESULT THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY
MAY BE EXTENDED INTO THE LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS LATER
THIS MORNING. STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES. 32/EE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 434 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...MAIN CONCERN FOR MOST
AREAS IN THE CWFA THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BE THE PERSISTENT FOG
DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS MORNING CONTINUING THROUGH ABOUT 9
AM...REFORMING AGAIN THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT CONTINUING THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE STILL DEPICTS BETTER
MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE THE ADVECT INLAND TODAY AND TONIGHT
GENERALLY FROM A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW...THUS SETTING THE STAGE FOR
CONTINUED ADVECTION FOG TO MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. DENSE FOG WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP NEAR THE COAST
LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING THEN SPREAD INLAND DURING
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT MID
MORNING TODAY THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING AS A VERY WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE REGION
SHIFTS NORTHWARD ALONG WITH  BETTER FORCING IN THE MID LEVELS
DAMPENING AND SHIFTING EAST. AS FOR TEMPS DUE TO RAIN AND CLOUDS
THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL UNDERCUT MOST OF THE CURRENT MOS GUIDANCE
1 TO 3 DEGREES FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON THEN LEAN
TOWARDS THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT. HIGHS TODAY WILL
CLIMB TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S FOR EXTREME NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA...UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND
THE MID 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S FOR MOST AREAS. 32/EE

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A POSITIVELY TILTED LONGWAVE
TROF OVER THE WESTERN STATES ADVANCES EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN
PLAINS AND INTERIOR EASTERN STATES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TUESDAY MORNING AND MOVES WELL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.  THE SURFACE LOW BRINGS A TRAILING COLD FRONT INTO THE
INTERIOR GULF COASTAL STATES WEDNESDAY MORNING WHICH THEN CONTINUES
SLOWLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...USHERING MUCH COLDER AIR INTO THE AREA.  WILL HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE AREA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT
DUE TO MODEST ISENTROPIC LIFT.  WITH THE CONTINUING SOUTHERLY FLOW
OVER COOL NEAR SHORE WATERS...HAVE ADDED AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING
OVER A PORTION OF THE COASTAL COUNTIES DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS.

GOOD CHANCE POPS FOLLOW FOR MOST OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE
FRONT BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERNMOST PORTION LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON.  WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MID 70S AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID 60S...0-3 KM MUCAPES LOOK TO ATTAIN AROUND 750 J/KG.  0-1
KM HELICITY VALUES LOOK TO BE 70-100 M2/S2 COINCIDENT WITH THE BEST
INSTABILITY.  AM NOT EXPECTING SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT WITH THIS
ENVIRONMENT ALTHOUGH A FEW STRONG STORMS COULD DEVELOP.  WILL
CONTINUE WORDING IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK STATING A LOW RISK
OF SEVERE WEATHER.

THINGS GET INTERESTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS MUCH COLDER AIR FLOWS INTO
THE REGION WITH HIGH RAIN CHANCES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.  FOR THE
PERIOD FROM 09Z-12Z THURSDAY...THE GFS HAS A 4KFT DEEP SUBFREEZING
LAYER OVER THE EXTREME NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA...ROUGHLY FROM
WAYNESBORO TO CAMDEN...AND THE NAM IS SIMILAR WITH A 3 KFT DEEP
SUBFREEZING LAYER.  THE ECMWF IS A BIT WARMER WITH A NEGLIGIBLE
SUBFREEZING LAYER.  TRIED TO BALANCE THE POTENTIAL RISK OF A WINTRY
MIX USING THIS GUIDANCE WHICH RESULTS IN A MIX OF
RAIN/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN MAINLY OVER NORTHERN CHOCTAW LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WHICH ALSO BLENDS WELL WITH NEIGHBORS.  QPF AMOUNTS DURING THE
WINTRY MIX PERIOD WILL BE NEAR 0.10 INCHES WHICH CERTAINLY BODES FOR
POTENTIAL TRAVEL PROBLEMS.  CONSIDERING THAT EXPOSED OBJECTS AND
ROADS WILL BE SLOWER TO COOL...HAVE GONE WITH A SMALL AMOUNT OF ICE
ACCUMULATION OF 0.01 INCHES.  WILL LEAVE TO LATER SHIFTS TO ADJUST
AS MORE DATA IS AVAILABLE AND WILL ADD WORDING TO THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK HIGHLIGHTING THE POTENTIAL HAZARDS.  SHOULD THE
EVENT PAN OUT CLOSER TO THE GFS/NAM SOLUTION...THIS WINTRY MIX AREA
WOULD NEED TO BE EXPANDED OVER THE NORTHERNMOST PORTION OF THE AREA
WITH INCREASED ACCUMULATION/ACCRUAL. /29

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...CONTINUING WITH A BLEND OF
THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF...WILL HAVE A WINTRY MIX OF RAIN/SLEET/FREEZING
RAIN MAINLY OVER NORTHERN CHOCTAW BUT ALSO EXTREME NORTHERN WAYNE
COUNTY FROM 12-15Z THURSDAY THEN CONDITIONS SUPPORT A RETURN TO
LIGHT RAIN BEFORE PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF AND ENDS LATER IN THE
MORNING.  USING THE SAME CONSIDERATIONS AS IN THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...HAVE GONE WITH A SMALL AMOUNT OF ICE ACCUMULATION OF 0.01
INCHES AND WILL LET LATER SHIFTS ADJUST.  DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY THEN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS RETURN
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND INCREASE TO CHANCE POPS BY SUNDAY AS
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.  HIGHS ON THURSDAY
WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 40 WELL INLAND TO THE LOWER 50S AT THE COAST
AND LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S INLAND TO
LOWER/MID 30S CLOSER TO THE COAST.  TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE
LOWER TO MID 40S AND HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN THE LOWER 60S. /29

AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE...MOSTLY LIFR TO IFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES THROUGH
03.12Z. WIDESPREAD FOG REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO 1/4 OF A MILE OR
LESS AT TIMES WILL BE LIKELY THROUGH ABOUT 9 AM CST THIS MORNING
LIFTING SLOWLY THROUGHOUT THE DAY.  DENSE FOG WILL REFORM AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY TUE MORNING POSSIBLY LEADING TO ANOTHER DENSE FOG
ADVISORY OVERNIGHT AND EARLY TUE MORNING. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS ALSO MOVING EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND SHIFT NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. 32/EE

MARINE...AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL IMPACT LOCAL BAYS AND SOUNDS AND
THE NEAR SHORE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH MIDWEEK. A LIGHT SOUTHEAST
WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY
THEN SHIFT SOUTH AND BUILD THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING AHEAD OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...LEADING A STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW OVER
THE MARINE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. SEAS UP TO 9 FEET
WELL OFFSHORE WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. NORTHERLY
WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH SATURDAY AS A BROAD
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTH. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE
LIKELY IN THE WAKE OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT LATER IN THE WEEK.
32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      66  57  73  61  76 /  50  20  20  20  50
PENSACOLA   66  59  72  61  75 /  50  20  20  20  40
DESTIN      65  59  70  61  72 /  50  20  10  20  30
EVERGREEN   70  58  76  60  76 /  50  20  20  20  40
WAYNESBORO  65  57  75  61  76 /  60  30  20  30  50
CAMDEN      63  58  76  61  75 /  60  30  20  20  40
CRESTVIEW   71  57  76  60  77 /  50  20  10  20  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BUTLER...CHOCTAW...CLARKE...CONECUH...COVINGTON...
     CRENSHAW...ESCAMBIA...LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...
     MONROE...UPPER BALDWIN...UPPER MOBILE...WASHINGTON...
     WILCOX...

FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...
     INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...INLAND SANTA ROSA...

MS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     GEORGE...GREENE...PERRY...STONE...WAYNE...

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO
     PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL
     TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...NORTHERN
     MOBILE BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...PERDIDO BAY...SOUTHERN
     MOBILE BAY...

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMOB 021320 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
720 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.UPDATE...DID A QUICK UPDATE TO CURRENT ZONE FORECAST TO LOWER POPS
A TAD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS MORNING. LATEST RADAR LOOPS CONTINUE
TO SHOW THE HEAVIER PRECIP JUST TO THE WEST EARLIER THIS MORNING
ERODING SLOWLY OVER THE FORECAST AREA AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST.
DENSE FOG NOW OCCURRING IN MOST PLACES IN THE CWFA WILL BE SLOW TO
LIFT THIS LATER MORNING. AS A RESULT THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY NEED
TO EXTENDED LATER THIS MORNING. STAY TUNE FOR FURTHER UPDATES. 32/EE

&&

.MARINE...DID A QUICK UPDATE TO THE CURRENT MARINE FORECAST MAINLY TO
ADJUST RAIN CHANCES FOR PRECIP FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS MORNING.
DENSE FOG WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT TODAY POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO THE LATE
MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. AS A RESULT THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY
MAY BE EXTENDED INTO THE LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS LATER
THIS MORNING. STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES. 32/EE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 434 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...MAIN CONCERN FOR MOST
AREAS IN THE CWFA THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BE THE PERSISTENT FOG
DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS MORNING CONTINUING THROUGH ABOUT 9
AM...REFORMING AGAIN THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT CONTINUING THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE STILL DEPICTS BETTER
MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE THE ADVECT INLAND TODAY AND TONIGHT
GENERALLY FROM A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW...THUS SETTING THE STAGE FOR
CONTINUED ADVECTION FOG TO MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. DENSE FOG WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP NEAR THE COAST
LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING THEN SPREAD INLAND DURING
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT MID
MORNING TODAY THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING AS A VERY WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE REGION
SHIFTS NORTHWARD ALONG WITH  BETTER FORCING IN THE MID LEVELS
DAMPENING AND SHIFTING EAST. AS FOR TEMPS DUE TO RAIN AND CLOUDS
THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL UNDERCUT MOST OF THE CURRENT MOS GUIDANCE
1 TO 3 DEGREES FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON THEN LEAN
TOWARDS THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT. HIGHS TODAY WILL
CLIMB TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S FOR EXTREME NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA...UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND
THE MID 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S FOR MOST AREAS. 32/EE

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A POSITIVELY TILTED LONGWAVE
TROF OVER THE WESTERN STATES ADVANCES EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN
PLAINS AND INTERIOR EASTERN STATES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TUESDAY MORNING AND MOVES WELL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.  THE SURFACE LOW BRINGS A TRAILING COLD FRONT INTO THE
INTERIOR GULF COASTAL STATES WEDNESDAY MORNING WHICH THEN CONTINUES
SLOWLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...USHERING MUCH COLDER AIR INTO THE AREA.  WILL HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE AREA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT
DUE TO MODEST ISENTROPIC LIFT.  WITH THE CONTINUING SOUTHERLY FLOW
OVER COOL NEAR SHORE WATERS...HAVE ADDED AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING
OVER A PORTION OF THE COASTAL COUNTIES DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS.

GOOD CHANCE POPS FOLLOW FOR MOST OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE
FRONT BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERNMOST PORTION LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON.  WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MID 70S AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID 60S...0-3 KM MUCAPES LOOK TO ATTAIN AROUND 750 J/KG.  0-1
KM HELICITY VALUES LOOK TO BE 70-100 M2/S2 COINCIDENT WITH THE BEST
INSTABILITY.  AM NOT EXPECTING SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT WITH THIS
ENVIRONMENT ALTHOUGH A FEW STRONG STORMS COULD DEVELOP.  WILL
CONTINUE WORDING IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK STATING A LOW RISK
OF SEVERE WEATHER.

THINGS GET INTERESTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS MUCH COLDER AIR FLOWS INTO
THE REGION WITH HIGH RAIN CHANCES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.  FOR THE
PERIOD FROM 09Z-12Z THURSDAY...THE GFS HAS A 4KFT DEEP SUBFREEZING
LAYER OVER THE EXTREME NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA...ROUGHLY FROM
WAYNESBORO TO CAMDEN...AND THE NAM IS SIMILAR WITH A 3 KFT DEEP
SUBFREEZING LAYER.  THE ECMWF IS A BIT WARMER WITH A NEGLIGIBLE
SUBFREEZING LAYER.  TRIED TO BALANCE THE POTENTIAL RISK OF A WINTRY
MIX USING THIS GUIDANCE WHICH RESULTS IN A MIX OF
RAIN/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN MAINLY OVER NORTHERN CHOCTAW LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WHICH ALSO BLENDS WELL WITH NEIGHBORS.  QPF AMOUNTS DURING THE
WINTRY MIX PERIOD WILL BE NEAR 0.10 INCHES WHICH CERTAINLY BODES FOR
POTENTIAL TRAVEL PROBLEMS.  CONSIDERING THAT EXPOSED OBJECTS AND
ROADS WILL BE SLOWER TO COOL...HAVE GONE WITH A SMALL AMOUNT OF ICE
ACCUMULATION OF 0.01 INCHES.  WILL LEAVE TO LATER SHIFTS TO ADJUST
AS MORE DATA IS AVAILABLE AND WILL ADD WORDING TO THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK HIGHLIGHTING THE POTENTIAL HAZARDS.  SHOULD THE
EVENT PAN OUT CLOSER TO THE GFS/NAM SOLUTION...THIS WINTRY MIX AREA
WOULD NEED TO BE EXPANDED OVER THE NORTHERNMOST PORTION OF THE AREA
WITH INCREASED ACCUMULATION/ACCRUAL. /29

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...CONTINUING WITH A BLEND OF
THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF...WILL HAVE A WINTRY MIX OF RAIN/SLEET/FREEZING
RAIN MAINLY OVER NORTHERN CHOCTAW BUT ALSO EXTREME NORTHERN WAYNE
COUNTY FROM 12-15Z THURSDAY THEN CONDITIONS SUPPORT A RETURN TO
LIGHT RAIN BEFORE PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF AND ENDS LATER IN THE
MORNING.  USING THE SAME CONSIDERATIONS AS IN THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...HAVE GONE WITH A SMALL AMOUNT OF ICE ACCUMULATION OF 0.01
INCHES AND WILL LET LATER SHIFTS ADJUST.  DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY THEN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS RETURN
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND INCREASE TO CHANCE POPS BY SUNDAY AS
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.  HIGHS ON THURSDAY
WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 40 WELL INLAND TO THE LOWER 50S AT THE COAST
AND LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S INLAND TO
LOWER/MID 30S CLOSER TO THE COAST.  TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE
LOWER TO MID 40S AND HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN THE LOWER 60S. /29

AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE...MOSTLY LIFR TO IFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES THROUGH
03.12Z. WIDESPREAD FOG REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO 1/4 OF A MILE OR
LESS AT TIMES WILL BE LIKELY THROUGH ABOUT 9 AM CST THIS MORNING
LIFTING SLOWLY THROUGHOUT THE DAY.  DENSE FOG WILL REFORM AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY TUE MORNING POSSIBLY LEADING TO ANOTHER DENSE FOG
ADVISORY OVERNIGHT AND EARLY TUE MORNING. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS ALSO MOVING EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND SHIFT NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. 32/EE

MARINE...AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL IMPACT LOCAL BAYS AND SOUNDS AND
THE NEAR SHORE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH MIDWEEK. A LIGHT SOUTHEAST
WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY
THEN SHIFT SOUTH AND BUILD THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING AHEAD OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...LEADING A STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW OVER
THE MARINE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. SEAS UP TO 9 FEET
WELL OFFSHORE WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. NORTHERLY
WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH SATURDAY AS A BROAD
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTH. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE
LIKELY IN THE WAKE OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT LATER IN THE WEEK.
32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      66  57  73  61  76 /  50  20  20  20  50
PENSACOLA   66  59  72  61  75 /  50  20  20  20  40
DESTIN      65  59  70  61  72 /  50  20  10  20  30
EVERGREEN   70  58  76  60  76 /  50  20  20  20  40
WAYNESBORO  65  57  75  61  76 /  60  30  20  30  50
CAMDEN      63  58  76  61  75 /  60  30  20  20  40
CRESTVIEW   71  57  76  60  77 /  50  20  10  20  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BUTLER...CHOCTAW...CLARKE...CONECUH...COVINGTON...
     CRENSHAW...ESCAMBIA...LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...
     MONROE...UPPER BALDWIN...UPPER MOBILE...WASHINGTON...
     WILCOX...

FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...
     INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...INLAND SANTA ROSA...

MS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     GEORGE...GREENE...PERRY...STONE...WAYNE...

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO
     PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL
     TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...NORTHERN
     MOBILE BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...PERDIDO BAY...SOUTHERN
     MOBILE BAY...

&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KMOB 021320 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
720 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.UPDATE...DID A QUICK UPDATE TO CURRENT ZONE FORECAST TO LOWER POPS
A TAD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS MORNING. LATEST RADAR LOOPS CONTINUE
TO SHOW THE HEAVIER PRECIP JUST TO THE WEST EARLIER THIS MORNING
ERODING SLOWLY OVER THE FORECAST AREA AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST.
DENSE FOG NOW OCCURRING IN MOST PLACES IN THE CWFA WILL BE SLOW TO
LIFT THIS LATER MORNING. AS A RESULT THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY NEED
TO EXTENDED LATER THIS MORNING. STAY TUNE FOR FURTHER UPDATES. 32/EE

&&

.MARINE...DID A QUICK UPDATE TO THE CURRENT MARINE FORECAST MAINLY TO
ADJUST RAIN CHANCES FOR PRECIP FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS MORNING.
DENSE FOG WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT TODAY POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO THE LATE
MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. AS A RESULT THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY
MAY BE EXTENDED INTO THE LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS LATER
THIS MORNING. STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES. 32/EE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 434 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...MAIN CONCERN FOR MOST
AREAS IN THE CWFA THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BE THE PERSISTENT FOG
DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS MORNING CONTINUING THROUGH ABOUT 9
AM...REFORMING AGAIN THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT CONTINUING THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE STILL DEPICTS BETTER
MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE THE ADVECT INLAND TODAY AND TONIGHT
GENERALLY FROM A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW...THUS SETTING THE STAGE FOR
CONTINUED ADVECTION FOG TO MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. DENSE FOG WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP NEAR THE COAST
LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING THEN SPREAD INLAND DURING
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT MID
MORNING TODAY THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING AS A VERY WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE REGION
SHIFTS NORTHWARD ALONG WITH  BETTER FORCING IN THE MID LEVELS
DAMPENING AND SHIFTING EAST. AS FOR TEMPS DUE TO RAIN AND CLOUDS
THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL UNDERCUT MOST OF THE CURRENT MOS GUIDANCE
1 TO 3 DEGREES FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON THEN LEAN
TOWARDS THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT. HIGHS TODAY WILL
CLIMB TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S FOR EXTREME NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA...UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND
THE MID 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S FOR MOST AREAS. 32/EE

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A POSITIVELY TILTED LONGWAVE
TROF OVER THE WESTERN STATES ADVANCES EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN
PLAINS AND INTERIOR EASTERN STATES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TUESDAY MORNING AND MOVES WELL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.  THE SURFACE LOW BRINGS A TRAILING COLD FRONT INTO THE
INTERIOR GULF COASTAL STATES WEDNESDAY MORNING WHICH THEN CONTINUES
SLOWLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...USHERING MUCH COLDER AIR INTO THE AREA.  WILL HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE AREA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT
DUE TO MODEST ISENTROPIC LIFT.  WITH THE CONTINUING SOUTHERLY FLOW
OVER COOL NEAR SHORE WATERS...HAVE ADDED AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING
OVER A PORTION OF THE COASTAL COUNTIES DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS.

GOOD CHANCE POPS FOLLOW FOR MOST OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE
FRONT BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERNMOST PORTION LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON.  WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MID 70S AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID 60S...0-3 KM MUCAPES LOOK TO ATTAIN AROUND 750 J/KG.  0-1
KM HELICITY VALUES LOOK TO BE 70-100 M2/S2 COINCIDENT WITH THE BEST
INSTABILITY.  AM NOT EXPECTING SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT WITH THIS
ENVIRONMENT ALTHOUGH A FEW STRONG STORMS COULD DEVELOP.  WILL
CONTINUE WORDING IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK STATING A LOW RISK
OF SEVERE WEATHER.

THINGS GET INTERESTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS MUCH COLDER AIR FLOWS INTO
THE REGION WITH HIGH RAIN CHANCES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.  FOR THE
PERIOD FROM 09Z-12Z THURSDAY...THE GFS HAS A 4KFT DEEP SUBFREEZING
LAYER OVER THE EXTREME NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA...ROUGHLY FROM
WAYNESBORO TO CAMDEN...AND THE NAM IS SIMILAR WITH A 3 KFT DEEP
SUBFREEZING LAYER.  THE ECMWF IS A BIT WARMER WITH A NEGLIGIBLE
SUBFREEZING LAYER.  TRIED TO BALANCE THE POTENTIAL RISK OF A WINTRY
MIX USING THIS GUIDANCE WHICH RESULTS IN A MIX OF
RAIN/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN MAINLY OVER NORTHERN CHOCTAW LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WHICH ALSO BLENDS WELL WITH NEIGHBORS.  QPF AMOUNTS DURING THE
WINTRY MIX PERIOD WILL BE NEAR 0.10 INCHES WHICH CERTAINLY BODES FOR
POTENTIAL TRAVEL PROBLEMS.  CONSIDERING THAT EXPOSED OBJECTS AND
ROADS WILL BE SLOWER TO COOL...HAVE GONE WITH A SMALL AMOUNT OF ICE
ACCUMULATION OF 0.01 INCHES.  WILL LEAVE TO LATER SHIFTS TO ADJUST
AS MORE DATA IS AVAILABLE AND WILL ADD WORDING TO THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK HIGHLIGHTING THE POTENTIAL HAZARDS.  SHOULD THE
EVENT PAN OUT CLOSER TO THE GFS/NAM SOLUTION...THIS WINTRY MIX AREA
WOULD NEED TO BE EXPANDED OVER THE NORTHERNMOST PORTION OF THE AREA
WITH INCREASED ACCUMULATION/ACCRUAL. /29

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...CONTINUING WITH A BLEND OF
THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF...WILL HAVE A WINTRY MIX OF RAIN/SLEET/FREEZING
RAIN MAINLY OVER NORTHERN CHOCTAW BUT ALSO EXTREME NORTHERN WAYNE
COUNTY FROM 12-15Z THURSDAY THEN CONDITIONS SUPPORT A RETURN TO
LIGHT RAIN BEFORE PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF AND ENDS LATER IN THE
MORNING.  USING THE SAME CONSIDERATIONS AS IN THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...HAVE GONE WITH A SMALL AMOUNT OF ICE ACCUMULATION OF 0.01
INCHES AND WILL LET LATER SHIFTS ADJUST.  DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY THEN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS RETURN
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND INCREASE TO CHANCE POPS BY SUNDAY AS
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.  HIGHS ON THURSDAY
WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 40 WELL INLAND TO THE LOWER 50S AT THE COAST
AND LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S INLAND TO
LOWER/MID 30S CLOSER TO THE COAST.  TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE
LOWER TO MID 40S AND HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN THE LOWER 60S. /29

AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE...MOSTLY LIFR TO IFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES THROUGH
03.12Z. WIDESPREAD FOG REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO 1/4 OF A MILE OR
LESS AT TIMES WILL BE LIKELY THROUGH ABOUT 9 AM CST THIS MORNING
LIFTING SLOWLY THROUGHOUT THE DAY.  DENSE FOG WILL REFORM AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY TUE MORNING POSSIBLY LEADING TO ANOTHER DENSE FOG
ADVISORY OVERNIGHT AND EARLY TUE MORNING. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS ALSO MOVING EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND SHIFT NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. 32/EE

MARINE...AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL IMPACT LOCAL BAYS AND SOUNDS AND
THE NEAR SHORE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH MIDWEEK. A LIGHT SOUTHEAST
WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY
THEN SHIFT SOUTH AND BUILD THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING AHEAD OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...LEADING A STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW OVER
THE MARINE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. SEAS UP TO 9 FEET
WELL OFFSHORE WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. NORTHERLY
WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH SATURDAY AS A BROAD
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTH. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE
LIKELY IN THE WAKE OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT LATER IN THE WEEK.
32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      66  57  73  61  76 /  50  20  20  20  50
PENSACOLA   66  59  72  61  75 /  50  20  20  20  40
DESTIN      65  59  70  61  72 /  50  20  10  20  30
EVERGREEN   70  58  76  60  76 /  50  20  20  20  40
WAYNESBORO  65  57  75  61  76 /  60  30  20  30  50
CAMDEN      63  58  76  61  75 /  60  30  20  20  40
CRESTVIEW   71  57  76  60  77 /  50  20  10  20  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BUTLER...CHOCTAW...CLARKE...CONECUH...COVINGTON...
     CRENSHAW...ESCAMBIA...LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...
     MONROE...UPPER BALDWIN...UPPER MOBILE...WASHINGTON...
     WILCOX...

FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...
     INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...INLAND SANTA ROSA...

MS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     GEORGE...GREENE...PERRY...STONE...WAYNE...

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO
     PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL
     TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...NORTHERN
     MOBILE BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...PERDIDO BAY...SOUTHERN
     MOBILE BAY...

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMOB 021320 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
720 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.UPDATE...DID A QUICK UPDATE TO CURRENT ZONE FORECAST TO LOWER POPS
A TAD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS MORNING. LATEST RADAR LOOPS CONTINUE
TO SHOW THE HEAVIER PRECIP JUST TO THE WEST EARLIER THIS MORNING
ERODING SLOWLY OVER THE FORECAST AREA AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST.
DENSE FOG NOW OCCURRING IN MOST PLACES IN THE CWFA WILL BE SLOW TO
LIFT THIS LATER MORNING. AS A RESULT THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY NEED
TO EXTENDED LATER THIS MORNING. STAY TUNE FOR FURTHER UPDATES. 32/EE

&&

.MARINE...DID A QUICK UPDATE TO THE CURRENT MARINE FORECAST MAINLY TO
ADJUST RAIN CHANCES FOR PRECIP FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS MORNING.
DENSE FOG WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT TODAY POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO THE LATE
MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. AS A RESULT THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY
MAY BE EXTENDED INTO THE LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS LATER
THIS MORNING. STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES. 32/EE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 434 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...MAIN CONCERN FOR MOST
AREAS IN THE CWFA THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BE THE PERSISTENT FOG
DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS MORNING CONTINUING THROUGH ABOUT 9
AM...REFORMING AGAIN THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT CONTINUING THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE STILL DEPICTS BETTER
MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE THE ADVECT INLAND TODAY AND TONIGHT
GENERALLY FROM A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW...THUS SETTING THE STAGE FOR
CONTINUED ADVECTION FOG TO MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. DENSE FOG WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP NEAR THE COAST
LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING THEN SPREAD INLAND DURING
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT MID
MORNING TODAY THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING AS A VERY WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE REGION
SHIFTS NORTHWARD ALONG WITH  BETTER FORCING IN THE MID LEVELS
DAMPENING AND SHIFTING EAST. AS FOR TEMPS DUE TO RAIN AND CLOUDS
THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL UNDERCUT MOST OF THE CURRENT MOS GUIDANCE
1 TO 3 DEGREES FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON THEN LEAN
TOWARDS THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT. HIGHS TODAY WILL
CLIMB TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S FOR EXTREME NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA...UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND
THE MID 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S FOR MOST AREAS. 32/EE

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A POSITIVELY TILTED LONGWAVE
TROF OVER THE WESTERN STATES ADVANCES EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN
PLAINS AND INTERIOR EASTERN STATES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TUESDAY MORNING AND MOVES WELL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.  THE SURFACE LOW BRINGS A TRAILING COLD FRONT INTO THE
INTERIOR GULF COASTAL STATES WEDNESDAY MORNING WHICH THEN CONTINUES
SLOWLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...USHERING MUCH COLDER AIR INTO THE AREA.  WILL HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE AREA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT
DUE TO MODEST ISENTROPIC LIFT.  WITH THE CONTINUING SOUTHERLY FLOW
OVER COOL NEAR SHORE WATERS...HAVE ADDED AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING
OVER A PORTION OF THE COASTAL COUNTIES DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS.

GOOD CHANCE POPS FOLLOW FOR MOST OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE
FRONT BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERNMOST PORTION LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON.  WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MID 70S AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID 60S...0-3 KM MUCAPES LOOK TO ATTAIN AROUND 750 J/KG.  0-1
KM HELICITY VALUES LOOK TO BE 70-100 M2/S2 COINCIDENT WITH THE BEST
INSTABILITY.  AM NOT EXPECTING SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT WITH THIS
ENVIRONMENT ALTHOUGH A FEW STRONG STORMS COULD DEVELOP.  WILL
CONTINUE WORDING IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK STATING A LOW RISK
OF SEVERE WEATHER.

THINGS GET INTERESTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS MUCH COLDER AIR FLOWS INTO
THE REGION WITH HIGH RAIN CHANCES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.  FOR THE
PERIOD FROM 09Z-12Z THURSDAY...THE GFS HAS A 4KFT DEEP SUBFREEZING
LAYER OVER THE EXTREME NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA...ROUGHLY FROM
WAYNESBORO TO CAMDEN...AND THE NAM IS SIMILAR WITH A 3 KFT DEEP
SUBFREEZING LAYER.  THE ECMWF IS A BIT WARMER WITH A NEGLIGIBLE
SUBFREEZING LAYER.  TRIED TO BALANCE THE POTENTIAL RISK OF A WINTRY
MIX USING THIS GUIDANCE WHICH RESULTS IN A MIX OF
RAIN/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN MAINLY OVER NORTHERN CHOCTAW LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WHICH ALSO BLENDS WELL WITH NEIGHBORS.  QPF AMOUNTS DURING THE
WINTRY MIX PERIOD WILL BE NEAR 0.10 INCHES WHICH CERTAINLY BODES FOR
POTENTIAL TRAVEL PROBLEMS.  CONSIDERING THAT EXPOSED OBJECTS AND
ROADS WILL BE SLOWER TO COOL...HAVE GONE WITH A SMALL AMOUNT OF ICE
ACCUMULATION OF 0.01 INCHES.  WILL LEAVE TO LATER SHIFTS TO ADJUST
AS MORE DATA IS AVAILABLE AND WILL ADD WORDING TO THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK HIGHLIGHTING THE POTENTIAL HAZARDS.  SHOULD THE
EVENT PAN OUT CLOSER TO THE GFS/NAM SOLUTION...THIS WINTRY MIX AREA
WOULD NEED TO BE EXPANDED OVER THE NORTHERNMOST PORTION OF THE AREA
WITH INCREASED ACCUMULATION/ACCRUAL. /29

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...CONTINUING WITH A BLEND OF
THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF...WILL HAVE A WINTRY MIX OF RAIN/SLEET/FREEZING
RAIN MAINLY OVER NORTHERN CHOCTAW BUT ALSO EXTREME NORTHERN WAYNE
COUNTY FROM 12-15Z THURSDAY THEN CONDITIONS SUPPORT A RETURN TO
LIGHT RAIN BEFORE PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF AND ENDS LATER IN THE
MORNING.  USING THE SAME CONSIDERATIONS AS IN THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...HAVE GONE WITH A SMALL AMOUNT OF ICE ACCUMULATION OF 0.01
INCHES AND WILL LET LATER SHIFTS ADJUST.  DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY THEN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS RETURN
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND INCREASE TO CHANCE POPS BY SUNDAY AS
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.  HIGHS ON THURSDAY
WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 40 WELL INLAND TO THE LOWER 50S AT THE COAST
AND LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S INLAND TO
LOWER/MID 30S CLOSER TO THE COAST.  TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE
LOWER TO MID 40S AND HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN THE LOWER 60S. /29

AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE...MOSTLY LIFR TO IFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES THROUGH
03.12Z. WIDESPREAD FOG REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO 1/4 OF A MILE OR
LESS AT TIMES WILL BE LIKELY THROUGH ABOUT 9 AM CST THIS MORNING
LIFTING SLOWLY THROUGHOUT THE DAY.  DENSE FOG WILL REFORM AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY TUE MORNING POSSIBLY LEADING TO ANOTHER DENSE FOG
ADVISORY OVERNIGHT AND EARLY TUE MORNING. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS ALSO MOVING EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND SHIFT NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. 32/EE

MARINE...AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL IMPACT LOCAL BAYS AND SOUNDS AND
THE NEAR SHORE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH MIDWEEK. A LIGHT SOUTHEAST
WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY
THEN SHIFT SOUTH AND BUILD THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING AHEAD OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...LEADING A STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW OVER
THE MARINE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. SEAS UP TO 9 FEET
WELL OFFSHORE WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. NORTHERLY
WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH SATURDAY AS A BROAD
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTH. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE
LIKELY IN THE WAKE OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT LATER IN THE WEEK.
32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      66  57  73  61  76 /  50  20  20  20  50
PENSACOLA   66  59  72  61  75 /  50  20  20  20  40
DESTIN      65  59  70  61  72 /  50  20  10  20  30
EVERGREEN   70  58  76  60  76 /  50  20  20  20  40
WAYNESBORO  65  57  75  61  76 /  60  30  20  30  50
CAMDEN      63  58  76  61  75 /  60  30  20  20  40
CRESTVIEW   71  57  76  60  77 /  50  20  10  20  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BUTLER...CHOCTAW...CLARKE...CONECUH...COVINGTON...
     CRENSHAW...ESCAMBIA...LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...
     MONROE...UPPER BALDWIN...UPPER MOBILE...WASHINGTON...
     WILCOX...

FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...
     INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...INLAND SANTA ROSA...

MS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     GEORGE...GREENE...PERRY...STONE...WAYNE...

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO
     PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL
     TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...NORTHERN
     MOBILE BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...PERDIDO BAY...SOUTHERN
     MOBILE BAY...

&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KMOB 021034
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
434 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...MAIN CONCERN FOR MOST
AREAS IN THE CWFA THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BE THE PERSISTENT FOG
DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS MORNING CONTINUING THROUGH ABOUT 9
AM...REFORMING AGAIN THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT CONTINUING THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE STILL DEPICTS BETTER
MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE THE ADVECT INLAND TODAY AND TONIGHT
GENERALLY FROM A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW...THUS SETTING THE STAGE FOR
CONTINUED ADVECTION FOG TO MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. DENSE FOG WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP NEAR THE COAST
LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING THEN SPREAD INLAND DURING
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT MID
MORNING TODAY THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING AS A VERY WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE REGION
SHIFTS NORTHWARD ALONG WITH  BETTER FORCING IN THE MID LEVELS
DAMPENING AND SHIFTING EAST. AS FOR TEMPS DUE TO RAIN AND CLOUDS
THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL UNDERCUT MOST OF THE CURRENT MOS GUIDANCE
1 TO 3 DEGREES FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON THEN LEAN
TOWARDS THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT. HIGHS TODAY WILL
CLIMB TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S FOR EXTREME NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA...UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND
THE MID 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S FOR MOST AREAS. 32/EE

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A POSITIVELY TILTED LONGWAVE
TROF OVER THE WESTERN STATES ADVANCES EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN
PLAINS AND INTERIOR EASTERN STATES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TUESDAY MORNING AND MOVES WELL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.  THE SURFACE LOW BRINGS A TRAILING COLD FRONT INTO THE
INTERIOR GULF COASTAL STATES WEDNESDAY MORNING WHICH THEN CONTINUES
SLOWLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...USHERING MUCH COLDER AIR INTO THE AREA.  WILL HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE AREA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT
DUE TO MODEST ISENTROPIC LIFT.  WITH THE CONTINUING SOUTHERLY FLOW
OVER COOL NEAR SHORE WATERS...HAVE ADDED AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING
OVER A PORTION OF THE COASTAL COUNTIES DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS.

GOOD CHANCE POPS FOLLOW FOR MOST OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE
FRONT BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERNMOST PORTION LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON.  WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MID 70S AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID 60S...0-3 KM MUCAPES LOOK TO ATTAIN AROUND 750 J/KG.  0-1
KM HELICITY VALUES LOOK TO BE 70-100 M2/S2 COINCIDENT WITH THE BEST
INSTABILITY.  AM NOT EXPECTING SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT WITH THIS
ENVIRONMENT ALTHOUGH A FEW STRONG STORMS COULD DEVELOP.  WILL
CONTINUE WORDING IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK STATING A LOW RISK
OF SEVERE WEATHER.

THINGS GET INTERESTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS MUCH COLDER AIR FLOWS INTO
THE REGION WITH HIGH RAIN CHANCES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.  FOR THE
PERIOD FROM 09Z-12Z THURSDAY...THE GFS HAS A 4KFT DEEP SUBFREEZING
LAYER OVER THE EXTREME NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA...ROUGHLY FROM
WAYNESBORO TO CAMDEN...AND THE NAM IS SIMILAR WITH A 3 KFT DEEP
SUBFREEZING LAYER.  THE ECMWF IS A BIT WARMER WITH A NEGLIGIBLE
SUBFREEZING LAYER.  TRIED TO BALANCE THE POTENTIAL RISK OF A WINTRY
MIX USING THIS GUIDANCE WHICH RESULTS IN A MIX OF
RAIN/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN MAINLY OVER NORTHERN CHOCTAW LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WHICH ALSO BLENDS WELL WITH NEIGHBORS.  QPF AMOUNTS DURING THE
WINTRY MIX PERIOD WILL BE NEAR 0.10 INCHES WHICH CERTAINLY BODES FOR
POTENTIAL TRAVEL PROBLEMS.  CONSIDERING THAT EXPOSED OBJECTS AND
ROADS WILL BE SLOWER TO COOL...HAVE GONE WITH A SMALL AMOUNT OF ICE
ACCUMULATION OF 0.01 INCHES.  WILL LEAVE TO LATER SHIFTS TO ADJUST
AS MORE DATA IS AVAILABLE AND WILL ADD WORDING TO THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK HIGHLIGHTING THE POTENTIAL HAZARDS.  SHOULD THE
EVENT PAN OUT CLOSER TO THE GFS/NAM SOLUTION...THIS WINTRY MIX AREA
WOULD NEED TO BE EXPANDED OVER THE NORTHERNMOST PORTION OF THE AREA
WITH INCREASED ACCUMULATION/ACCRUAL. /29

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...CONTINUING WITH A BLEND OF
THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF...WILL HAVE A WINTRY MIX OF RAIN/SLEET/FREEZING
RAIN MAINLY OVER NORTHERN CHOCTAW BUT ALSO EXTREME NORTHERN WAYNE
COUNTY FROM 12-15Z THURSDAY THEN CONDITIONS SUPPORT A RETURN TO
LIGHT RAIN BEFORE PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF AND ENDS LATER IN THE
MORNING.  USING THE SAME CONSIDERATIONS AS IN THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...HAVE GONE WITH A SMALL AMOUNT OF ICE ACCUMULATION OF 0.01
INCHES AND WILL LET LATER SHIFTS ADJUST.  DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY THEN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS RETURN
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND INCREASE TO CHANCE POPS BY SUNDAY AS
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.  HIGHS ON THURSDAY
WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 40 WELL INLAND TO THE LOWER 50S AT THE COAST
AND LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S INLAND TO
LOWER/MID 30S CLOSER TO THE COAST.  TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE
LOWER TO MID 40S AND HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN THE LOWER 60S. /29

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE...MOSTLY LIFR TO IFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES THROUGH
03.12Z. WIDESPREAD FOG REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO 1/4 OF A MILE OR
LESS AT TIMES WILL BE LIKELY THROUGH ABOUT 9 AM CST THIS MORNING
LIFTING SLOWLY THROUGHOUT THE DAY.  DENSE FOG WILL REFORM AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY TUE MORNING POSSIBLY LEADING TO ANOTHER DENSE FOG
ADVISORY OVERNIGHT AND EARLY TUE MORNING. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS ALSO MOVING EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND SHIFT NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. 32/EE

&&

.MARINE...AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL IMPACT LOCAL BAYS AND SOUNDS AND
THE NEAR SHORE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH MIDWEEK. A LIGHT SOUTHEAST
WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY
THEN SHIFT SOUTH AND BUILD THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING AHEAD OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...LEADING A STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW OVER
THE MARINE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. SEAS UP TO 9 FEET
WELL OFFSHORE WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. NORTHERLY
WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH SATURDAY AS A BROAD
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTH. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE
LIKELY IN THE WAKE OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT LATER IN THE WEEK.
32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      66  57  73  61  76 /  60  20  20  20  50
PENSACOLA   66  59  72  61  75 /  60  20  20  20  40
DESTIN      65  59  70  61  72 /  60  20  10  20  30
EVERGREEN   70  58  76  60  76 /  60  20  20  20  40
WAYNESBORO  65  57  75  61  76 /  60  30  20  30  50
CAMDEN      63  58  76  61  75 /  60  30  20  20  40
CRESTVIEW   71  57  76  60  77 /  60  20  10  20  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BUTLER...CHOCTAW...CLARKE...CONECUH...COVINGTON...
     CRENSHAW...ESCAMBIA...LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...
     MONROE...UPPER BALDWIN...UPPER MOBILE...WASHINGTON...
     WILCOX...

FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...
     INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...INLAND SANTA ROSA...

MS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     GEORGE...GREENE...PERRY...STONE...WAYNE...

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO
     PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL
     TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...NORTHERN
     MOBILE BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...PERDIDO BAY...SOUTHERN
     MOBILE BAY...

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMOB 021034
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
434 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...MAIN CONCERN FOR MOST
AREAS IN THE CWFA THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BE THE PERSISTENT FOG
DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS MORNING CONTINUING THROUGH ABOUT 9
AM...REFORMING AGAIN THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT CONTINUING THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE STILL DEPICTS BETTER
MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE THE ADVECT INLAND TODAY AND TONIGHT
GENERALLY FROM A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW...THUS SETTING THE STAGE FOR
CONTINUED ADVECTION FOG TO MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. DENSE FOG WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP NEAR THE COAST
LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING THEN SPREAD INLAND DURING
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT MID
MORNING TODAY THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING AS A VERY WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE REGION
SHIFTS NORTHWARD ALONG WITH  BETTER FORCING IN THE MID LEVELS
DAMPENING AND SHIFTING EAST. AS FOR TEMPS DUE TO RAIN AND CLOUDS
THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL UNDERCUT MOST OF THE CURRENT MOS GUIDANCE
1 TO 3 DEGREES FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON THEN LEAN
TOWARDS THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT. HIGHS TODAY WILL
CLIMB TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S FOR EXTREME NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA...UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND
THE MID 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S FOR MOST AREAS. 32/EE

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A POSITIVELY TILTED LONGWAVE
TROF OVER THE WESTERN STATES ADVANCES EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN
PLAINS AND INTERIOR EASTERN STATES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TUESDAY MORNING AND MOVES WELL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.  THE SURFACE LOW BRINGS A TRAILING COLD FRONT INTO THE
INTERIOR GULF COASTAL STATES WEDNESDAY MORNING WHICH THEN CONTINUES
SLOWLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...USHERING MUCH COLDER AIR INTO THE AREA.  WILL HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE AREA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT
DUE TO MODEST ISENTROPIC LIFT.  WITH THE CONTINUING SOUTHERLY FLOW
OVER COOL NEAR SHORE WATERS...HAVE ADDED AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING
OVER A PORTION OF THE COASTAL COUNTIES DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS.

GOOD CHANCE POPS FOLLOW FOR MOST OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE
FRONT BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERNMOST PORTION LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON.  WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MID 70S AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID 60S...0-3 KM MUCAPES LOOK TO ATTAIN AROUND 750 J/KG.  0-1
KM HELICITY VALUES LOOK TO BE 70-100 M2/S2 COINCIDENT WITH THE BEST
INSTABILITY.  AM NOT EXPECTING SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT WITH THIS
ENVIRONMENT ALTHOUGH A FEW STRONG STORMS COULD DEVELOP.  WILL
CONTINUE WORDING IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK STATING A LOW RISK
OF SEVERE WEATHER.

THINGS GET INTERESTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS MUCH COLDER AIR FLOWS INTO
THE REGION WITH HIGH RAIN CHANCES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.  FOR THE
PERIOD FROM 09Z-12Z THURSDAY...THE GFS HAS A 4KFT DEEP SUBFREEZING
LAYER OVER THE EXTREME NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA...ROUGHLY FROM
WAYNESBORO TO CAMDEN...AND THE NAM IS SIMILAR WITH A 3 KFT DEEP
SUBFREEZING LAYER.  THE ECMWF IS A BIT WARMER WITH A NEGLIGIBLE
SUBFREEZING LAYER.  TRIED TO BALANCE THE POTENTIAL RISK OF A WINTRY
MIX USING THIS GUIDANCE WHICH RESULTS IN A MIX OF
RAIN/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN MAINLY OVER NORTHERN CHOCTAW LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WHICH ALSO BLENDS WELL WITH NEIGHBORS.  QPF AMOUNTS DURING THE
WINTRY MIX PERIOD WILL BE NEAR 0.10 INCHES WHICH CERTAINLY BODES FOR
POTENTIAL TRAVEL PROBLEMS.  CONSIDERING THAT EXPOSED OBJECTS AND
ROADS WILL BE SLOWER TO COOL...HAVE GONE WITH A SMALL AMOUNT OF ICE
ACCUMULATION OF 0.01 INCHES.  WILL LEAVE TO LATER SHIFTS TO ADJUST
AS MORE DATA IS AVAILABLE AND WILL ADD WORDING TO THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK HIGHLIGHTING THE POTENTIAL HAZARDS.  SHOULD THE
EVENT PAN OUT CLOSER TO THE GFS/NAM SOLUTION...THIS WINTRY MIX AREA
WOULD NEED TO BE EXPANDED OVER THE NORTHERNMOST PORTION OF THE AREA
WITH INCREASED ACCUMULATION/ACCRUAL. /29

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...CONTINUING WITH A BLEND OF
THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF...WILL HAVE A WINTRY MIX OF RAIN/SLEET/FREEZING
RAIN MAINLY OVER NORTHERN CHOCTAW BUT ALSO EXTREME NORTHERN WAYNE
COUNTY FROM 12-15Z THURSDAY THEN CONDITIONS SUPPORT A RETURN TO
LIGHT RAIN BEFORE PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF AND ENDS LATER IN THE
MORNING.  USING THE SAME CONSIDERATIONS AS IN THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...HAVE GONE WITH A SMALL AMOUNT OF ICE ACCUMULATION OF 0.01
INCHES AND WILL LET LATER SHIFTS ADJUST.  DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY THEN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS RETURN
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND INCREASE TO CHANCE POPS BY SUNDAY AS
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.  HIGHS ON THURSDAY
WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 40 WELL INLAND TO THE LOWER 50S AT THE COAST
AND LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S INLAND TO
LOWER/MID 30S CLOSER TO THE COAST.  TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE
LOWER TO MID 40S AND HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN THE LOWER 60S. /29

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE...MOSTLY LIFR TO IFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES THROUGH
03.12Z. WIDESPREAD FOG REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO 1/4 OF A MILE OR
LESS AT TIMES WILL BE LIKELY THROUGH ABOUT 9 AM CST THIS MORNING
LIFTING SLOWLY THROUGHOUT THE DAY.  DENSE FOG WILL REFORM AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY TUE MORNING POSSIBLY LEADING TO ANOTHER DENSE FOG
ADVISORY OVERNIGHT AND EARLY TUE MORNING. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS ALSO MOVING EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND SHIFT NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. 32/EE

&&

.MARINE...AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL IMPACT LOCAL BAYS AND SOUNDS AND
THE NEAR SHORE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH MIDWEEK. A LIGHT SOUTHEAST
WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY
THEN SHIFT SOUTH AND BUILD THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING AHEAD OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...LEADING A STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW OVER
THE MARINE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. SEAS UP TO 9 FEET
WELL OFFSHORE WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. NORTHERLY
WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH SATURDAY AS A BROAD
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTH. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE
LIKELY IN THE WAKE OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT LATER IN THE WEEK.
32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      66  57  73  61  76 /  60  20  20  20  50
PENSACOLA   66  59  72  61  75 /  60  20  20  20  40
DESTIN      65  59  70  61  72 /  60  20  10  20  30
EVERGREEN   70  58  76  60  76 /  60  20  20  20  40
WAYNESBORO  65  57  75  61  76 /  60  30  20  30  50
CAMDEN      63  58  76  61  75 /  60  30  20  20  40
CRESTVIEW   71  57  76  60  77 /  60  20  10  20  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BUTLER...CHOCTAW...CLARKE...CONECUH...COVINGTON...
     CRENSHAW...ESCAMBIA...LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...
     MONROE...UPPER BALDWIN...UPPER MOBILE...WASHINGTON...
     WILCOX...

FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...
     INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...INLAND SANTA ROSA...

MS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     GEORGE...GREENE...PERRY...STONE...WAYNE...

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO
     PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL
     TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...NORTHERN
     MOBILE BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...PERDIDO BAY...SOUTHERN
     MOBILE BAY...

&&

$$







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