000
FXUS64 KMOB 260502 AAA
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1159 PM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013
.AVIATION...[26.06Z ISSUANCE]...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z MON. SCT
TO BKN THIN HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE FORECAST PD. EXPECT A FEW LOW TO
MID LEVEL FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS SUN AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
BECOME MOSTLY VARIABLE AT 3 TO 5 KNOTS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
BECOMING EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 8 TO 12 KNOTS LATE SUN MORNING THROUGH
EARLY SUN EVENING DIMINISHING TO 3 TO 6 KNOTS LATE. 32/EE
&&
.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON]...SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EAST FROM
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW A SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...BRINGING INCREASING MOISTURE BACK TO THE
REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS TONIGHT...LOW TO MID
50S INLAND AND MID 60S NEAR THE COAST. DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS
CONTINUE ON SUNDAY WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES. HIGHS ON
SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S IN MOST AREA WITH LOWER 80S
ALONG THE COAST. /13
[REMAINDER OF THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND]...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
PERSIST AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LEVELS WILL INCREASE THROUGH MONDAY
AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH
MONDAY...BRINGING A RETURN OF SOUTHERLY WINDS AND AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE LEVELS. AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
WILL MOVE SLOWLY OVER THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...BUT SHOULD ONLY BRING AN INCREASE IN HIGH TO MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS WITH NO RAIN EXPECTED.
HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND WILL RANGE FROM 85 TO
90 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...WITH LOWER 80S ALONG THE COAST. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM 58 TO 65 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...WITH
UPPER 60S ALONG THE COAST. /22
&&
.LONG TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY]...FOR TUESDAY THE EASTWARD
SHIFT IN THE UPPER FEATURES CONTINUE...WITH THE NE-ERN TROUGH MOVING
WELL OFF THE EAST COAST...AND THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTING OVER THE
CONUS...EAST OF THE MISS RIVER. THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE EAST
COAST BUILDS WEST OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEX. MOISTURE LEVELS ARE
ON THE INCREASE WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMING A MORE ORGANIZED
SOUTHEASTERLY. WITH THE FA COMING UNDER STRONGER HIGH
PRESSURE...TEMPS ABOVE SEASONAL RETURN.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH TAKES A
NEGATIVE TROUGH...PUSHING THE UPPER RIDGE TO OVER THE EAST COAST.
SHRA/TSRA MAKE A RETURN BACK INTO THE FORECAST...ESPECIALLY OVER
EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FA...WITH THE MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST CONTINUES...AND A SHORTWAVE SWINGS AROUND THE
BASE OF THE WESTERN UPPER TROUGH...SWIPING THE LOWER MISS RIVER
VALLEY. A SLIGHT CHANCE AT BEST IS EXPECTED...THOUGH. WITH PRECIP
CHANCES ON THE INCREASE...TEMPS COOL A BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY OVER
WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FA...BUT REMAIN WELL ABOVE SEASONAL OVER
EASTERN SECTIONS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE WESTERN UPPER TROUGH ORGANIZES
A BIT. A SHORTWAVE MOVES NORTHEAST OVER THE EASTERN GULF COAST FROM
SOUTH OF THE CARIBBEAN. THE GFS MAINTAINS A SLIGHTLY WARMER/WETTER
SOLUTION THAN THE ECMWF....BUT THE DIFFERENCE IS SMALL. HAVE WENT
CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR THE FORECAST...WITH GUIDANCE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE BEGINS TO
DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY. THE WESTERN US TROUGH ORGANIZES INTO AN UPPER
LOW AND SWINGS EAST. THE GFS IS ADVERTISING A FAST...MORE NORTH
PASSAGE THAN THE ECMWF. THE SLOWER ECMWF ORGANIZED THE UPPER SYSTEM
MORE AS IT MOVES EAST. BOTH ARE ADVERTISING UPPER ENERGY DIVING SOUTH
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...TO VARYING EXTENTS. OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
CONUS IS WHERE THE PATTER REALLY BEGINS TO DIVERGE. THE ECMWF TAKES
THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEX AND TAKES IT
NORTH...FORMING A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE FL ATLANTIC COAST AND TAKING
IT NORTH ALONG THE COAST. THE GFS MEANDERS IT SLOWLY WESTERN OVER THE
GULF OF MEX...ORGANIZING IT VERY LITTLE. FOR TEMPS...BOTH THE ECMWF
AND GFS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT. FOR POPS...THE ECMWF MAINTAINS
A DRIER SOLUTION OVER THE FA THAN THE GFS DUE TOT THE SHORTWAVE BEING
MORE DISTANT FROM THE FA. FOR THE FORECAST...HAVE GENERALLY WENT WITH
THE GFS...WITH THE GFS ENSEMBLES IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OP
GFS. /16
&&
.AVIATION [26.00Z KMOB/KBFM/KPNS TAF ISSUANCE]...VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH ONLY A FEW PASSING HIGH
CLOUDS. /13
&&
.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW CONTINUING OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. LITTLE CHANGE IN SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED. /13
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE 60 85 66 86 65 / 00 00 05 05 05
PENSACOLA 66 85 68 86 68 / 00 00 05 05 05
DESTIN 68 82 69 84 69 / 00 00 05 05 05
EVERGREEN 54 89 61 88 60 / 00 00 05 05 05
WAYNESBORO 55 88 64 88 60 / 00 00 05 10 05
CAMDEN 54 89 62 89 61 / 00 00 05 05 05
CRESTVIEW 54 89 58 89 59 / 00 00 05 05 05
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
COASTAL OKALOOSA...INLAND OKALOOSA...
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMOB 252318 AAA
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
620 PM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013
.AVIATION...[26.00Z ISSUANCE]...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 00Z MON. SCT
TO BKN THIN HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE FORECAST PD. EXPECT A FEW LOW TO
MID LEVEL FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS SUN AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
BECOME MOSTLY VARIABLE AT 3 TO 5 KNOTS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
BECOMING EAST OT SOUTHEAST AT 8 TO 12 KNOTS LATE SUN MORNING THROUGH
SUN AFTERNOON. 32/EE
&&
.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON]...SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EAST FROM
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW A SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...BRINGING INCREASING MOISTURE BACK TO THE
REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS TONIGHT...LOW TO MID
50S INLAND AND MID 60S NEAR THE COAST. DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS
CONTINUE ON SUNDAY WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES. HIGHS ON
SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S IN MOST AREA WITH LOWER 80S
ALONG THE COAST. /13
[REMAINDER OF THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND]...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
PERSIST AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LEVELS WILL INCREASE THROUGH MONDAY
AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH
MONDAY...BRINGING A RETURN OF SOUTHERLY WINDS AND AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE LEVELS. AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
WILL MOVE SLOWLY OVER THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...BUT SHOULD ONLY BRING AN INCREASE IN HIGH TO MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS WITH NO RAIN EXPECTED.
HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND WILL RANGE FROM 85 TO
90 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...WITH LOWER 80S ALONG THE COAST. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM 58 TO 65 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...WITH
UPPER 60S ALONG THE COAST. /22
&&
.LONG TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY]...FOR TUESDAY THE EASTWARD
SHIFT IN THE UPPER FEATURES CONTINUE...WITH THE NE-ERN TROUGH MOVING
WELL OFF THE EAST COAST...AND THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTING OVER THE
CONUS...EAST OF THE MISS RIVER. THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE EAST
COAST BUILDS WEST OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEX. MOISTURE LEVELS ARE
ON THE INCREASE WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMING A MORE ORGANIZED
SOUTHEASTERLY. WITH THE FA COMING UNDER STRONGER HIGH
PRESSURE...TEMPS ABOVE SEASONAL RETURN.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH TAKES A
NEGATIVE TROUGH...PUSHING THE UPPER RIDGE TO OVER THE EAST COAST.
SHRA/TSRA MAKE A RETURN BACK INTO THE FORECAST...ESPECIALLY OVER
EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FA...WITH THE MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST CONTINUES...AND A SHORTWAVE SWINGS AROUND THE
BASE OF THE WESTERN UPPER TROUGH...SWIPING THE LOWER MISS RIVER
VALLEY. A SLIGHT CHANCE AT BEST IS EXPECTED...THOUGH. WITH PRECIP
CHANCES ON THE INCREASE...TEMPS COOL A BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY OVER
WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FA...BUT REMAIN WELL ABOVE SEASONAL OVER
EASTERN SECTIONS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE WESTERN UPPER TROUGH ORGANIZES
A BIT. A SHORTWAVE MOVES NORTHEAST OVER THE EASTERN GULF COAST FROM
SOUTH OF THE CARIBBEAN. THE GFS MAINTAINS A SLIGHTLY WARMER/WETTER
SOLUTION THAN THE ECMWF....BUT THE DIFFERENCE IS SMALL. HAVE WENT
CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR THE FORECAST...WITH GUIDANCE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE BEGINS TO
DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY. THE WESTERN US TROUGH ORGANIZES INTO AN UPPER
LOW AND SWINGS EAST. THE GFS IS ADVERTISING A FAST...MORE NORTH
PASSAGE THAN THE ECMWF. THE SLOWER ECMWF ORGANIZED THE UPPER SYSTEM
MORE AS IT MOVES EAST. BOTH ARE ADVERTISING UPPER ENERGY DIVING SOUTH
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...TO VARYING EXTENTS. OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
CONUS IS WHERE THE PATTER REALLY BEGINS TO DIVERGE. THE ECMWF TAKES
THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEX AND TAKES IT
NORTH...FORMING A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE FL ATLANTIC COAST AND TAKING
IT NORTH ALONG THE COAST. THE GFS MEANDERS IT SLOWLY WESTERN OVER THE
GULF OF MEX...ORGANIZING IT VERY LITTLE. FOR TEMPS...BOTH THE ECMWF
AND GFS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT. FOR POPS...THE ECMWF MAINTAINS
A DRIER SOLUTION OVER THE FA THAN THE GFS DUE TOT THE SHORTWAVE BEING
MORE DISTANT FROM THE FA. FOR THE FORECAST...HAVE GENERALLY WENT WITH
THE GFS...WITH THE GFS ENSEMBLES IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OP
GFS. /16
&&
.AVIATION [26.00Z KMOB/KBFM/KPNS TAF ISSUANCE]...VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH ONLY A FEW PASSING HIGH
CLOUDS. /13
&&
.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW CONTINUING OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. LITTLE CHANGE IN SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED. /13
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE 60 85 66 86 65 / 00 00 05 05 05
PENSACOLA 66 85 68 86 68 / 00 00 05 05 05
DESTIN 68 82 69 84 69 / 00 00 05 05 05
EVERGREEN 54 89 61 88 60 / 00 00 05 05 05
WAYNESBORO 55 88 64 88 60 / 00 00 05 10 05
CAMDEN 54 89 62 89 61 / 00 00 05 05 05
CRESTVIEW 54 89 58 89 59 / 00 00 05 05 05
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
COASTAL OKALOOSA...INLAND OKALOOSA...
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMOB 252053
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
353 PM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013
.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON]...SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EAST FROM
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW A SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...BRINGING INCREASING MOISTURE BACK TO THE
REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS TONIGHT...LOW TO MID
50S INLAND AND MID 60S NEAR THE COAST. DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS
CONTINUE ON SUNDAY WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES. HIGHS ON
SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S IN MOST AREA WITH LOWER 80S
ALONG THE COAST. /13
[REMAINDER OF THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND]...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
PERSIST AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LEVELS WILL INCREASE THROUGH MONDAY
AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH
MONDAY...BRINGING A RETURN OF SOUTHERLY WINDS AND AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE LEVELS. AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
WILL MOVE SLOWLY OVER THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...BUT SHOULD ONLY BRING AN INCREASE IN HIGH TO MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS WITH NO RAIN EXPECTED.
HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND WILL RANGE FROM 85 TO
90 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...WITH LOWER 80S ALONG THE COAST. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM 58 TO 65 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...WITH
UPPER 60S ALONG THE COAST. /22
&&
.LONG TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY]...FOR TUESDAY THE EASTWARD
SHIFT IN THE UPPER FEATURES CONTINUE...WITH THE NE-ERN TROUGH MOVING
WELL OFF THE EAST COAST...AND THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTING OVER THE
CONUS...EAST OF THE MISS RIVER. THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE EAST
COAST BUILDS WEST OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEX. MOISTURE LEVELS ARE
ON THE INCREASE WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMING A MORE ORGANIZED
SOUTHEASTERLY. WITH THE FA COMING UNDER STRONGER HIGH
PRESSURE...TEMPS ABOVE SEASONAL RETURN.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH TAKES A
NEGATIVE TROUGH...PUSHING THE UPPER RIDGE TO OVER THE EAST COAST.
SHRA/TSRA MAKE A RETURN BACK INTO THE FORECAST...ESPECIALLY OVER
EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FA...WITH THE MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST CONTINUES...AND A SHORTWAVE SWINGS AROUND THE
BASE OF THE WESTERN UPPER TROUGH...SWIPING THE LOWER MISS RIVER
VALLEY. A SLIGHT CHANCE AT BEST IS EXPECTED...THOUGH. WITH PRECIP
CHANCES ON THE INCREASE...TEMPS COOL A BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY OVER
WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FA...BUT REMAIN WELL ABOVE SEASONAL OVER
EASTERN SECTIONS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE WESTERN UPPER TROUGH ORGANIZES
A BIT. A SHORTWAVE MOVES NORTHEAST OVER THE EASTERN GULF COAST FROM
SOUTH OF THE CARIBBEAN. THE GFS MAINTAINS A SLIGHTLY WARMER/WETTER
SOLUTION THAN THE ECMWF....BUT THE DIFFERENCE IS SMALL. HAVE WENT
CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR THE FORECAST...WITH GUIDANCE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE BEGINS TO
DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY. THE WESTERN US TROUGH ORGANIZES INTO AN UPPER
LOW AND SWINGS EAST. THE GFS IS ADVERTISING A FAST...MORE NORTH
PASSAGE THAN THE ECMWF. THE SLOWER ECMWF ORGANIZED THE UPPER SYSTEM
MORE AS IT MOVES EAST. BOTH ARE ADVERTISING UPPER ENERGY DIVING SOUTH
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...TO VARYING EXTENTS. OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
CONUS IS WHERE THE PATTER REALLY BEGINS TO DIVERGE. THE ECMWF TAKES
THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEX AND TAKES IT
NORTH...FORMING A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE FL ATLANTIC COAST AND TAKING
IT NORTH ALONG THE COAST. THE GFS MEANDERS IT SLOWLY WESTERN OVER THE
GULF OF MEX...ORGANIZING IT VERY LITTLE. FOR TEMPS...BOTH THE ECMWF
AND GFS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT. FOR POPS...THE ECMWF MAINTAINS
A DRIER SOLUTION OVER THE FA THAN THE GFS DUE TOT THE SHORTWAVE BEING
MORE DISTANT FROM THE FA. FOR THE FORECAST...HAVE GENERALLY WENT WITH
THE GFS...WITH THE GFS ENSEMBLES IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OP
GFS. /16
&&
.AVIATION [26.00Z KMOB/KBFM/KPNS TAF ISSUANCE]...VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH ONLY A FEW PASSING HIGH
CLOUDS. /13
&&
.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW CONTINUING OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. LITTLE CHANGE IN SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED. /13
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE 60 85 66 86 65 / 00 00 05 05 05
PENSACOLA 66 85 68 86 68 / 00 00 05 05 05
DESTIN 68 82 69 84 69 / 00 00 05 05 05
EVERGREEN 54 89 61 88 60 / 00 00 05 05 05
WAYNESBORO 55 88 64 88 60 / 00 00 05 10 05
CAMDEN 54 89 62 89 61 / 00 00 05 05 05
CRESTVIEW 54 89 58 89 59 / 00 00 05 05 05
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
COASTAL OKALOOSA...INLAND OKALOOSA...
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMOB 251734 AAA
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...AVIATION UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1230 PM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013
.AVIATION (25.18Z ISSUANCE)...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. /13
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...FOR TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
THROUGH ALABAMA/MISSISSIPPI TODAY. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
OUR FORECAST AREA UNDERNEATH THIS FEATURE. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED WITH ONLY OCCASIONAL HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER MOVING OVER THE
REGION. OTHERWISE...A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM
THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. TODAY WITH A LIGHT
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW EARLY THIS MORNING BECOMING MORE EASTERLY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY BY AFTERNOON. EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE MID 80S TO
AROUND 90 DEGREES AGAIN ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS. MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY
CONDITIONS CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS
THE INTERIOR...AND IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S NEAR THE COAST. /21
THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS LOW.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...TWO UPPER TROUGHS...ONE EACH OVER THE NE AND
NW CONUS...SHIFT EAST...SHIFTING THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS TO
OVER THE MISS RIVER VALLEY. A SHORTWAVE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
SHIFTS EAST WITH...TO OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THE SURFACE
RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS TAKES A SE PATH...TO JUST OFF THE EAST
COAST. EVEN WITH AN UPPER SHORTWAVE OVER THE AREA...GUIDANCE IS SLOW
ENOUGH TO MOVE MOISTURE BACK OVER THE FA...ALONG WITH A CAP TO LIMIT
SIGNIFICANT PRECIP FORMATION. NAM IS SLIGHTLY WETTER...ADVERTISING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA OVER THE MARINE AREA. HAVE WENT WITH THE
MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE AND KEPT THE FA GENERALLY RAIN FREE. FOR
TEMPS...AROUND SEASONAL DURING THE DAY...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS A BIT
BELOW DUE TO THE DRIER THAN SEASONAL AIRMASS OVER THE AREA.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT ON)...FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY...THE EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE UPPER FEATURES CONTINUE...WITH
THE NE-ERN TROUGH MOVING WELL OFF THE EAST COAST...AND THE UPPER
RIDGE SHIFTING OVER THE CONUS...EAST OF THE MISS RIVER. THE SURFACE
RIDGE OVER THE EAST COAST BUILDS WEST OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEX.
MOISTURE LEVELS ARE ON THE INCREASE WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMING
A MORE ORGANIZED SOUTHEASTERLY. WITH THE FA COMING UNDER STRONGER
HIGH PRESSURE...TEMPS ABOVE SEASONAL RETURN.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH TAKES A
NEGATIVE TROUGH...PUSHING THE UPPER RIDGE TO OVER THE EAST COAST.
SHRA/TSRA MAKE A RETURN BACK INTO THE FORECAST...ESPECIALLY OVER
EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FA...WITH THE MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST CONTINUES...AND A SHORTWAVE SWINGS AROUND THE
BASE OF THE WESTERN UPPER TROUGH...SWIPING THE LOWER MISS RIVER
VALLEY. A SLIGHT CHANCE AT BEST IS EXPECTED...THOUGH. WITH PRECIP
CHANCES ON THE INCREASE...TEMPS COOL A BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY OVER
WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FA...BUT REMAIN WELL ABOVE SEASONAL OVER
EASTERN SECTIONS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE WESTERN UPPER TROUGH ORGANIZES
A BIT. A SHORTWAVE MOVES NORTHEAST OVER THE EASTERN GULF COAST FROM
SOUTH OF THE CARIBBEAN. THE GFS MAINTAINS A SLIGHTLY WARMER/WETTER
SOLUTION THAN THE ECMWF....BUT THE DIFFERENCE IS SMALL. HAVE WENT
CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR THE FORECAST...WITH GUIDANCE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE BEGINS TO
DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY. THE WESTERN US TROUGH ORGANIZES INTO AN UPPER
LOW AND SWINGS EAST. THE GFS IS ADVERTISING A FAST...MORE NORTH
PASSAGE THAN THE ECMWF. THE SLOWER ECMWF ORGANIZED THE UPPER SYSTEM
MORE AS IT MOVES EAST. BOTH ARE ADVERTISING UPPER ENERGY DIVING SOUTH
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...TO VARYING EXTENTS. OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
CONUS IS WHERE THE PATTER REALLY BEGINS TO DIVERGE. THE ECMWF TAKES
THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEX AND TAKES IT
NORTH...FORMING A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE FL ATLANTIC COAST AND TAKING
IT NORTH ALONG THE COAST. THE GFS MEANDERS IT SLOWLY WESTERN OVER THE
GULF OF MEX...ORGANIZING IT VERY LITTLE. FOR TEMPS...BOTH THE ECMWF
AND GFS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT. FOR POPS...THE ECMWF MAINTAINS
A DRIER SOLUTION OVER THE FA THAN THE GFS DUE TOT THE SHORTWAVE BEING
MORE DISTANT FROM THE FA. FOR THE FORECAST...HAVE GENERALLY WENT WITH
THE GFS...WITH THE GFS ENSEMBLES IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OP
GFS.
&&
.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
U.S...WITH THIS FEATURE RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO
THROUGH TONIGHT. MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY FLOW BETWEEN
15-20 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE MARINE AREA THIS
MORNING...BEFORE BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY AND DECREASING THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND FROM
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF LATE THIS WEEKEND
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST
FLOW WILL PERSIST ALONG WITH THIS PATTERN. /21
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...NORTHEAST FLOW IN THE MIXING LAYER HAS BROUGHT IN
DRIER AIR OVER THE FA...WITH AFTERNOON RH VALUES DROPPING INTO THE
MID 20 PERCENT RANGE. WITH ERC VALUES OVER OKALOOSA COUNTY...FL
RISING ABOVE THE MAGIC 37 MARK...WILL BE ISSUING A RED FLAG FOR
OKALOOSA TODAY. ESCAMBIA AND SANTA ROSA VALUES REMAIN WELL BELOW
CRITERIA LEVELS FOR A FL RED FLAG.
INTO THE COMING WEEK...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OVER THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...THEN BUILDS WEST NORTH OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST THROUGH
THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. WINDS IN THE MIXING LAYER BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY IN THE PROCESS...WITH MOISTURE LEVELS ON THE INCREASE.
NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN APPEARS TO BE WEDNESDAY OVER WESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE FA. A SLIGHT CHANCE...THOUGH.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE 86 61 86 64 86 / 00 00 05 05 05
PENSACOLA 87 66 86 67 85 / 00 00 05 05 05
DESTIN 84 67 83 68 82 / 00 00 05 05 05
EVERGREEN 86 54 89 59 88 / 00 00 05 05 05
WAYNESBORO 86 56 87 58 86 / 00 00 05 05 05
CAMDEN 86 53 88 59 86 / 00 00 05 05 05
CRESTVIEW 89 54 89 58 90 / 00 00 05 05 05
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
COASTAL OKALOOSA...INLAND OKALOOSA...
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
21/16
000
FXUS64 KMOB 251013
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
512 AM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...FOR TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
THROUGH ALABAMA/MISSISSIPPI TODAY. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
OUR FORECAST AREA UNDERNEATH THIS FEATURE. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED WITH ONLY OCCASIONAL HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER MOVING OVER THE
REGION. OTHERWISE...A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM
THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. TODAY WITH A LIGHT
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW EARLY THIS MORNING BECOMING MORE EASTERLY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY BY AFTERNOON. EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE MID 80S TO
AROUND 90 DEGREES AGAIN ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS. MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY
CONDITIONS CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS
THE INTERIOR...AND IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S NEAR THE COAST. /21
THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS LOW.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...TWO UPPER TROUGHS...ONE EACH OVER THE NE AND
NW CONUS...SHIFT EAST...SHIFTING THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS TO
OVER THE MISS RIVER VALLEY. A SHORTWAVE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
SHIFTS EAST WITH...TO OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THE SURFACE
RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS TAKES A SE PATH...TO JUST OFF THE EAST
COAST. EVEN WITH AN UPPER SHORTWAVE OVER THE AREA...GUIDANCE IS SLOW
ENOUGH TO MOVE MOISTURE BACK OVER THE FA...ALONG WITH A CAP TO LIMIT
SIGNIFICANT PRECIP FORMATION. NAM IS SLIGHTLY WETTER...ADVERTISING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA OVER THE MARINE AREA. HAVE WENT WITH THE
MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE AND KEPT THE FA GENERALLY RAIN FREE. FOR
TEMPS...AROUND SEASONAL DURING THE DAY...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS A BIT
BELOW DUE TO THE DRIER THAN SEASONAL AIRMASS OVER THE AREA.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT ON)...FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY...THE EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE UPPER FEATURES CONTINUE...WITH
THE NE-ERN TROUGH MOVING WELL OFF THE EAST COAST...AND THE UPPER
RIDGE SHIFTING OVER THE CONUS...EAST OF THE MISS RIVER. THE SURFACE
RIDGE OVER THE EAST COAST BUILDS WEST OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEX.
MOISTURE LEVELS ARE ON THE INCREASE WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMING
A MORE ORGANIZED SOUTHEASTERLY. WITH THE FA COMING UNDER STRONGER
HIGH PRESSURE...TEMPS ABOVE SEASONAL RETURN.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH TAKES A
NEGATIVE TROUGH...PUSHING THE UPPER RIDGE TO OVER THE EAST COAST.
SHRA/TSRA MAKE A RETURN BACK INTO THE FORECAST...ESPECIALLY OVER
EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FA...WITH THE MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST CONTINUES...AND A SHORTWAVE SWINGS AROUND THE
BASE OF THE WESTERN UPPER TROUGH...SWIPING THE LOWER MISS RIVER
VALLEY. A SLIGHT CHANCE AT BEST IS EXPECTED...THOUGH. WITH PRECIP
CHANCES ON THE INCREASE...TEMPS COOL A BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY OVER
WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FA...BUT REMAIN WELL ABOVE SEASONAL OVER
EASTERN SECTIONS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE WESTERN UPPER TROUGH ORGANIZES
A BIT. A SHORTWAVE MOVES NORTHEAST OVER THE EASTERN GULF COAST FROM
SOUTH OF THE CARIBBEAN. THE GFS MAINTAINS A SLIGHTLY WARMER/WETTER
SOLUTION THAN THE ECMWF....BUT THE DIFFERENCE IS SMALL. HAVE WENT
CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR THE FORECAST...WITH GUIDANCE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE BEGINS TO
DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY. THE WESTERN US TROUGH ORGANIZES INTO AN UPPER
LOW AND SWINGS EAST. THE GFS IS ADVERTISING A FAST...MORE NORTH
PASSAGE THAN THE ECMWF. THE SLOWER ECMWF ORGANIZED THE UPPER SYSTEM
MORE AS IT MOVES EAST. BOTH ARE ADVERTISING UPPER ENERGY DIVING SOUTH
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...TO VARYING EXTENTS. OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
CONUS IS WHERE THE PATTER REALLY BEGINS TO DIVERGE. THE ECMWF TAKES
THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEX AND TAKES IT
NORTH...FORMING A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE FL ATLANTIC COAST AND TAKING
IT NORTH ALONG THE COAST. THE GFS MEANDERS IT SLOWLY WESTERN OVER THE
GULF OF MEX...ORGANIZING IT VERY LITTLE. FOR TEMPS...BOTH THE ECMWF
AND GFS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT. FOR POPS...THE ECMWF MAINTAINS
A DRIER SOLUTION OVER THE FA THAN THE GFS DUE TOT THE SHORTWAVE BEING
MORE DISTANT FROM THE FA. FOR THE FORECAST...HAVE GENERALLY WENT WITH
THE GFS...WITH THE GFS ENSEMBLES IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OP
GFS.
&&
.AVIATION...[12Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION]...VFR TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH FEW-SCATTERED MAINLY HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER.
NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 5-10 KNOTS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. /21
&&
.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
U.S...WITH THIS FEATURE RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO
THROUGH TONIGHT. MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY FLOW BETWEEN
15-20 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE MARINE AREA THIS
MORNING...BEFORE BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY AND DECREASING THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND FROM
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF LATE THIS WEEKEND
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST
FLOW WILL PERSIST ALONG WITH THIS PATTERN. /21
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...NORTHEAST FLOW IN THE MIXING LAYER HAS BROUGHT IN
DRIER AIR OVER THE FA...WITH AFTERNOON RH VALUES DROPPING INTO THE
MID 20 PERCENT RANGE. WITH ERC VALUES OVER OKALOOSA COUNTY...FL
RISING ABOVE THE MAGIC 37 MARK...WILL BE ISSUING A RED FLAG FOR
OKALOOSA TODAY. ESCAMBIA AND SANTA ROSA VALUES REMAIN WELL BELOW
CRITERIA LEVELS FOR A FL RED FLAG.
INTO THE COMING WEEK...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OVER THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...THEN BUILDS WEST NORTH OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST THROUGH
THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. WINDS IN THE MIXING LAYER BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY IN THE PROCESS...WITH MOISTURE LEVELS ON THE INCREASE.
NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN APPEARS TO BE WEDNESDAY OVER WESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE FA. A SLIGHT CHANCE...THOUGH.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE 86 61 86 64 86 / 00 00 05 05 05
PENSACOLA 87 66 86 67 85 / 00 00 05 05 05
DESTIN 84 67 83 68 82 / 00 00 05 05 05
EVERGREEN 86 54 89 59 88 / 00 00 05 05 05
WAYNESBORO 86 56 87 58 86 / 00 00 05 05 05
CAMDEN 86 53 88 59 86 / 00 00 05 05 05
CRESTVIEW 89 54 89 58 90 / 00 00 05 05 05
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM SATURDAY TO 6 PM SATURDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL OKALOOSA...INLAND OKALOOSA...
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
21/16
000
FXUS64 KMOB 250446 AAA
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1146 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.AVIATION...[06Z ISSUANCE]...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z SUN. A FEW
LOW TO MID CLOUDS SAT AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT
5 TO 8 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND SAT MORNING BECOMING EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT
8 TO 12 KNOTS WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS SAT AFTERNOON DIMINISHING TO
LESS THAN 5 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SUN. 32/EE
.MARINE...NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO INCREASE OVER THE NEAR SHORE
WATERS THIS EVENING WITH THIS TREND SHIFTING SOUTH FOR THE REMAINDER
OF TONIGHT. WINDS RANGING FROM 14 TO 19 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 24
KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR MOST AREAS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FOR MOST AREAS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE TONIGHT. 32/EE
&&
.AVIATION...[00Z ISSUANCE]...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 00Z SUN. A FEW
LOW TO MID CLOUDS SAT AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST TO NORTH AT
8 TO 12 KNOTS EARLY THIS EVENING BECOMING NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 9 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT AND SAT MORNING BECOMING EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 8 TO 14
KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS SAT AFTERNOON. 32/EE
&&
.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT]...A WEAK AND PCPN-FREE
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE INTO THE GULF TONIGHT...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY.
LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME MORE EAST AND SOUTHEASTERLY
(ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON) TOMORROW. MOISTURE
RETURN TO THE AREA ONLY SLIGHT ON SATURDAY. WITH RIDGING SFC AND
ALOFT OVER THE AREA...LOOK FOR CONTINUED NO PCPN. BEHIND THE FRONT
TONIGHT A LITTLE COOLER THAN PREVIOUS FEW NIGHTS...WITH LOWS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTHERN INTERIOR ZONES TO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER
60S TOWARD THE COAST. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WARMING INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 80S OVER ALL OF THE INTERIOR ZONES...LOW 80S ALONG THE COAST.
12/DS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL SATURDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND A SLIGHT MODERATION IN NIGHTTIME LOWS. NUMBERS IN THE MID
50S INTERIOR...LOWER TO MID 60S COAST.
.LONG TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY]...BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROF OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL BE REPLACED BY A MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER
RIDGE MIDDLE TO LATE WEEK ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST WHILE AREA
WILL BE ON WESTERN EDGE OF A LARGE WESTERN ATLANTIC SURFACE HIGH.
CONSIDERING THE 24.12Z MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT TO DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE AND LIFT...CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION...ALTHOUGH NON-
ZERO WILL NONETHELESS LOOK TO BE VERY LOW AT 10% OR LESS. UNDER
SOUTHERLY WINDS...DAYTIME TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S INTERIOR IS SUPPORTED...WHILE BEACHES IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL MODERATE EACH NIGHT...MOVING WELL INTO THE 60S BY
NEXT WEEK...TO LOWER 70S ALONG THE BEACHES. /10
&&
.AVIATION [18Z TAF ISSUANCE]...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTH RESULTING IN LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW TODAY. VFR
CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HRS. /10
&&
.MARINE...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE MARINE AREA
THIS EVENING...WITH HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RIDGE
SOUTH OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH TUESDAY. AN OFFSHORE
FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MARINE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...
INCREASING TO EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. A LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW PATTERN
WILL PREVAIL LATE THIS WEEKEND THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
12/DS
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...A DRY MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND IS FORECAST WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. FIRE DANGER WILL BE
ELEVATED THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS DUE TO LOW DAILY RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES AND GENERALLY GOOD DISPERSION. ALTHOUGH CRITICALLY LOW
HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST ON SATURDAY...NOT MEETING ENERGY RELEASE
COMPONENT (ERC)...KBDI AND WIND SPEED CRITERIA NECESSARY FOR FIRE
WEATHER WATCH/RED FLAG WARNING ISSUANCE. /10
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE 59 86 61 86 64 / 00 00 00 05 05
PENSACOLA 63 87 66 85 68 / 00 00 00 05 05
DESTIN 67 79 68 83 70 / 00 00 00 05 05
EVERGREEN 50 87 54 89 59 / 00 00 00 05 05
WAYNESBORO 51 87 54 88 59 / 00 00 00 05 05
CAMDEN 49 87 53 88 60 / 00 00 00 05 05
CRESTVIEW 50 89 53 90 59 / 00 00 00 05 05
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMOB 250201 AAA
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
852 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.MARINE...NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO INCREASE OVER THE NEAR SHORE
WATERS THIS EVENING WITH THIS TREND SHIFTING SOUTH FOR THE REMAINDER
OF TONIGHT. WINDS RANGING FROM 14 TO 19 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 24
KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR MOST AREAS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FOR MOST AREAS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE TONIGHT. 32/EE
&&
.AVIATION...[00Z ISSUANCE]...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 00Z SUN. A FEW
LOW TO MID CLOUDS SAT AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST TO NORTH AT
8 TO 12 KNOTS EARLY THIS EVENING BECOMING NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 9 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT AND SAT MORNING BECOMING EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 8 TO 14
KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS SAT AFTERNOON. 32/EE
&&
.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT]...A WEAK AND PCPN-FREE
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE INTO THE GULF TONIGHT...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY.
LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME MORE EAST AND SOUTHEASTERLY
(ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON) TOMORROW. MOISTURE
RETURN TO THE AREA ONLY SLIGHT ON SATURDAY. WITH RIDGING SFC AND
ALOFT OVER THE AREA...LOOK FOR CONTINUED NO PCPN. BEHIND THE FRONT
TONIGHT A LITTLE COOLER THAN PREVIOUS FEW NIGHTS...WITH LOWS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTHERN INTERIOR ZONES TO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER
60S TOWARD THE COAST. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WARMING INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 80S OVER ALL OF THE INTERIOR ZONES...LOW 80S ALONG THE COAST.
12/DS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL SATURDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND A SLIGHT MODERATION IN NIGHTTIME LOWS. NUMBERS IN THE MID
50S INTERIOR...LOWER TO MID 60S COAST.
.LONG TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY]...BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROF OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL BE REPLACED BY A MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER
RIDGE MIDDLE TO LATE WEEK ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST WHILE AREA
WILL BE ON WESTERN EDGE OF A LARGE WESTERN ATLANTIC SURFACE HIGH.
CONSIDERING THE 24.12Z MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT TO DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE AND LIFT...CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION...ALTHOUGH NON-
ZERO WILL NONETHELESS LOOK TO BE VERY LOW AT 10% OR LESS. UNDER
SOUTHERLY WINDS...DAYTIME TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S INTERIOR IS SUPPORTED...WHILE BEACHES IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL MODERATE EACH NIGHT...MOVING WELL INTO THE 60S BY
NEXT WEEK...TO LOWER 70S ALONG THE BEACHES. /10
&&
.AVIATION [18Z TAF ISSUANCE]...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTH RESULTING IN LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW TODAY. VFR
CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HRS. /10
&&
.MARINE...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE MARINE AREA
THIS EVENING...WITH HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RIDGE
SOUTH OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH TUESDAY. AN OFFSHORE
FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MARINE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...
INCREASING TO EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. A LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW PATTERN
WILL PREVAIL LATE THIS WEEKEND THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
12/DS
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...A DRY MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND IS FORECAST WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. FIRE DANGER WILL BE
ELEVATED THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS DUE TO LOW DAILY RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES AND GENERALLY GOOD DISPERSION. ALTHOUGH CRITICALLY LOW
HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST ON SATURDAY...NOT MEETING ENERGY RELEASE
COMPONENT (ERC)...KBDI AND WIND SPEED CRITERIA NECESSARY FOR FIRE
WEATHER WATCH/RED FLAG WARNING ISSUANCE. /10
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE 59 86 61 86 64 / 00 00 00 05 05
PENSACOLA 63 87 66 85 68 / 00 00 00 05 05
DESTIN 67 79 68 83 70 / 00 00 00 05 05
EVERGREEN 50 87 54 89 59 / 00 00 00 05 05
WAYNESBORO 51 87 54 88 59 / 00 00 00 05 05
CAMDEN 49 87 53 88 60 / 00 00 00 05 05
CRESTVIEW 50 89 53 90 59 / 00 00 00 05 05
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMOB 242325
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
625 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.AVIATION...[00Z ISSUANCE]...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 00Z SUN. A FEW
LOW TO MID CLOUDS SAT AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST TO NORTH AT
8 TO 12 KNOTS EARLY THIS EVENING BECOMING NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 9 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT AND SAT MORNING BECOMING EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 8 TO 14
KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS SAT AFTERNOON. 32/EE
&&
.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT]...A WEAK AND PCPN-FREE
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE INTO THE GULF TONIGHT...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY.
LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME MORE EAST AND SOUTHEASTERLY
(ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON) TOMORROW. MOISTURE
RETURN TO THE AREA ONLY SLIGHT ON SATURDAY. WITH RIDGING SFC AND
ALOFT OVER THE AREA...LOOK FOR CONTINUED NO PCPN. BEHIND THE FRONT
TONIGHT A LITTLE COOLER THAN PREVIOUS FEW NIGHTS...WITH LOWS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTHERN INTERIOR ZONES TO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER
60S TOWARD THE COAST. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WARMING INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 80S OVER ALL OF THE INTERIOR ZONES...LOW 80S ALONG THE COAST.
12/DS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL SATURDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND A SLIGHT MODERATION IN NIGHTTIME LOWS. NUMBERS IN THE MID
50S INTERIOR...LOWER TO MID 60S COAST.
.LONG TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY]...BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROF OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL BE REPLACED BY A MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER
RIDGE MIDDLE TO LATE WEEK ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST WHILE AREA
WILL BE ON WESTERN EDGE OF A LARGE WESTERN ATLANTIC SURFACE HIGH.
CONSIDERING THE 24.12Z MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT TO DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE AND LIFT...CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION...ALTHOUGH NON-
ZERO WILL NONETHELESS LOOK TO BE VERY LOW AT 10% OR LESS. UNDER
SOUTHERLY WINDS...DAYTIME TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S INTERIOR IS SUPPORTED...WHILE BEACHES IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL MODERATE EACH NIGHT...MOVING WELL INTO THE 60S BY
NEXT WEEK...TO LOWER 70S ALONG THE BEACHES. /10
&&
.AVIATION [18Z TAF ISSUANCE]...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTH RESULTING IN LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW TODAY. VFR
CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HRS. /10
&&
.MARINE...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE MARINE AREA
THIS EVENING...WITH HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RIDGE
SOUTH OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH TUESDAY. AN OFFSHORE
FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MARINE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...
INCREASING TO EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. A LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW PATTERN
WILL PREVAIL LATE THIS WEEKEND THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
12/DS
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...A DRY MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND IS FORECAST WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. FIRE DANGER WILL BE
ELEVATED THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS DUE TO LOW DAILY RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES AND GENERALLY GOOD DISPERSION. ALTHOUGH CRITICALLY LOW
HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST ON SATURDAY...NOT MEETING ENERGY RELEASE
COMPONENT (ERC)...KBDI AND WIND SPEED CRITERIA NECESSARY FOR FIRE
WEATHER WATCH/RED FLAG WARNING ISSUANCE. /10
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE 59 86 61 86 64 / 00 00 00 05 05
PENSACOLA 63 87 66 85 68 / 00 00 00 05 05
DESTIN 67 79 68 83 70 / 00 00 00 05 05
EVERGREEN 50 87 54 89 59 / 00 00 00 05 05
WAYNESBORO 51 87 54 88 59 / 00 00 00 05 05
CAMDEN 49 87 53 88 60 / 00 00 00 05 05
CRESTVIEW 50 89 53 90 59 / 00 00 00 05 05
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMOB 242052
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
352 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT]...A WEAK AND PCPN-FREE
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE INTO THE GULF TONIGHT...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY.
LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME MORE EAST AND SOUTHEASTERLY
(ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON) TOMORROW. MOISTURE
RETURN TO THE AREA ONLY SLIGHT ON SATURDAY. WITH RIDGING SFC AND
ALOFT OVER THE AREA...LOOK FOR CONTINUED NO PCPN. BEHIND THE FRONT
TONIGHT A LITTLE COOLER THAN PREVIOUS FEW NIGHTS...WITH LOWS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTHERN INTERIOR ZONES TO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER
60S TOWARD THE COAST. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WARMING INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 80S OVER ALL OF THE INTERIOR ZONES...LOW 80S ALONG THE COAST.
12/DS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL SATURDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND A SLIGHT MODERATION IN NIGHTTIME LOWS. NUMBERS IN THE MID
50S INTERIOR...LOWER TO MID 60S COAST.
.LONG TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY]...BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROF OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL BE REPLACED BY A MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER
RIDGE MIDDLE TO LATE WEEK ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST WHILE AREA
WILL BE ON WESTERN EDGE OF A LARGE WESTERN ATLANTIC SURFACE HIGH.
CONSIDERING THE 24.12Z MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT TO DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE AND LIFT...CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION...ALTHOUGH NON-
ZERO WILL NONETHELESS LOOK TO BE VERY LOW AT 10% OR LESS. UNDER
SOUTHERLY WINDS...DAYTIME TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S INTERIOR IS SUPPORTED...WHILE BEACHES IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL MODERATE EACH NIGHT...MOVING WELL INTO THE 60S BY
NEXT WEEK...TO LOWER 70S ALONG THE BEACHES. /10
&&
.AVIATION [18Z TAF ISSUANCE]...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTH RESULTING IN LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW TODAY. VFR
CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HRS. /10
&&
.MARINE...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE MARINE AREA
THIS EVENING...WITH HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RIDGE
SOUTH OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH TUESDAY. AN OFFSHORE
FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MARINE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...
INCREASING TO EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. A LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW PATTERN
WILL PREVAIL LATE THIS WEEKEND THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
12/DS
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...A DRY MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND IS FORECAST WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. FIRE DANGER WILL BE
ELEVATED THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS DUE TO LOW DAILY RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES AND GENERALLY GOOD DISPERSION. ALTHOUGH CRITICALLY LOW
HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST ON SATURDAY...NOT MEETING ENERGY RELEASE
COMPONENT (ERC)...KBDI AND WIND SPEED CRITERIA NECESSARY FOR FIRE
WEATHER WATCH/RED FLAG WARNING ISSUANCE. /10
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE 59 86 61 86 64 / 00 00 00 05 05
PENSACOLA 63 87 66 85 68 / 00 00 00 05 05
DESTIN 67 79 68 83 70 / 00 00 00 05 05
EVERGREEN 50 87 54 89 59 / 00 00 00 05 05
WAYNESBORO 51 87 54 88 59 / 00 00 00 05 05
CAMDEN 49 87 53 88 60 / 00 00 00 05 05
CRESTVIEW 50 89 53 90 59 / 00 00 00 05 05
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMOB 241714 AAA
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1213 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.AVIATION [18Z TAF ISSUANCE]...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTH RESULTING IN LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW TODAY. VFR
CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HRS. /10
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE 87 56 85 60 86 / 05 00 00 00 05
PENSACOLA 89 61 85 64 85 / 05 00 00 00 05
DESTIN 85 63 83 66 83 / 00 00 00 00 05
EVERGREEN 85 50 86 52 88 / 00 00 00 00 05
WAYNESBORO 84 51 86 54 88 / 00 00 00 00 10
CAMDEN 83 49 87 53 88 / 00 00 00 00 10
CRESTVIEW 90 50 87 53 88 / 00 00 00 00 05
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
21/16
000
FXUS64 KMOB 241714 AAA
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1213 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.AVIATION [18Z TAF ISSUANCE]...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTH RESULTING IN LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW TODAY. VFR
CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HRS. /10
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE 87 56 85 60 86 / 05 00 00 00 05
PENSACOLA 89 61 85 64 85 / 05 00 00 00 05
DESTIN 85 63 83 66 83 / 00 00 00 00 05
EVERGREEN 85 50 86 52 88 / 00 00 00 00 05
WAYNESBORO 84 51 86 54 88 / 00 00 00 00 10
CAMDEN 83 49 87 53 88 / 00 00 00 00 10
CRESTVIEW 90 50 87 53 88 / 00 00 00 00 05
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMOB 240942
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
442 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...FOR TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION TODAY BETWEEN AN
AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS STATES AND A BROAD UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVING TOWARD THE EAST COAST. A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS IN
THE DEEP LAYERS WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD TO THE AL/FL COASTLINE BY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...SO NO RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS OUR REGION. A SURFACE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD TO THE GULF COAST BEHIND
A PASSING WEAK COLD FRONT TODAY...WHICH WILL PROMOTE A NORTHERLY
SURFACE FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS. HIGHS LOOK TO MOSTLY
RANGE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT. DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING
INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. WE EXPECT
OVERNIGHT LOWS TO RANGE ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL...GENERALLY FROM AROUND 50 ACROSS INTERIOR/NORTHERN AREAS TO
THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 NEAR THE COAST. /21
THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS LOW.
BY SATURDAY MORNING...THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS TODAY HAS
SHIFTED EAST...WITH THE RIDGE-LINE JUST WEST OF THE MISS RIVER
VALLEY. A SHORTWAVE HAS MOVED OVER TX BY SATURDAY MORNING. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...WITH A RIDGE
STRETCHING SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. FOR THE FA...SIGNIFICANTLY
DRIER AIR HAS MOVE OVER THE AREA UNDER NORTHEASTERLY FLOW.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE PLAINS MOVES THROUGH
THE UPPER RIDGE-LINE...AS THE RIDGE MOVES EAST. THIS EASTWARD
MOVEMENT IS DUE TO A BUNCH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY DANCING AROUND EACH
OTHER OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS. THE SURFACE RIDGE GETS A SHOVE
EAST...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS DUE TO THE PLAINS
SHORTWAVE.THIS BRINGS BACK SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TO THE CONUS...ALBEIT A
BIT ON THE SYNOPTIC WEAK SIDE. LOW LEVEL FLOW IS STRONGER OVER THE
PLAINS...WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS HELPING TO TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE PLAINS.
FOR THE FORECAST...GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT...SO HAVEN`T
DEVIATED. TEMPS AROUND SEASONAL...WITH A LACK OF PRECIP.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT ON)...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THE
UPPER ENERGY DANCING AROUND OVER THE NORTHWESTERN PLAINS BREAKS
DOWN...WITH PIECES MOVING OVER THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS. THIS
HELPS TO DE-AMPLIFY THE UPPER RIDGE SOMEWHAT OVER THE
PLAINS(ESPECIALLY IN THE GFS). THE ONSHORE FLOW EAST OF THE LOWER
MISS RIVER VALLEY REMAINS ONSHORE...BUT STILL SYNOPTICALLY WEAK AS A
SURFACE RIDGE HAS BECOME ORGANIZED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. TEMPS
AROUND SEASONAL CONTINUE...WITH PRECIP AGAIN LACKING.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...SOME OF THE UPPER ENERGY DIGS SOUTH OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS....FORMING AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.
THIS HELPS TO BUILD THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. A PIECE
OF ENERGY MOVES OVER THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS...FORMING
EITHER A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN GULF(GFS) OR UPPER TROUGH
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS/NE-ERN GULF OF MEX(ECMWF). THE
ONSHORE FLOW REMAINS STRONG OVER THE PLAINS...WEAKENING AS ONE MOVES
EAST ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN...THOUGH MOISTURE LEVELS ARE ON THE INCREASE. WITH THE UPPER
LOW/TROUGH EAST OF THE FA...AND A BUILDING RIDGE...TEMPS CLIMB A BIT
ABOVE SEASONAL...WITH RAIN NOT EXPECTED.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE SOUTHERN END OF THE WESTERN
TROUGH STARTS TO SWING EAST...PUSHING THE EASTERN UPPER RIDGE
EAST...AND THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE SE-ERN CONUS OVER THE OPEN GULF OF
MEX IN ALL THE GUIDANCE. MOISTURE LEVELS CONTINUE TO RISE...WITH A
CHANCE OF RAIN MAKING IT BACK INTO THE FORECAST.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE EASTERN UPPER RIDGE AND THE
ENERGY MOVING OVER THE PLAINS FROM THE WESTERN CONUS PLAY A GAME OF
PUSH AND SHOVE. THE RIDGE GETS PUSHED TO OVER THE EAST COAST BY
FRIDAY EVENING. THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS GETS
A BIT OF A SHOVE NORTH...RESULTING IN A MORE EASTERLY SYNOPTIC FLOW.
POPS HAVE RETURNED...BUT REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL. TEMPS A BIT ABOVE
SEASONAL CONTINUE.
&&
.AVIATION...[12Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION]...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE AFTER 24/15Z. /21
&&
.MARINE...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE
OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTHWARD INTO THE GULF IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WIND
SPEEDS WILL LIKELY REACH EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS
INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THIS WEEKEND...THEN INTO THE NORTHERN
GULF DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. A LIGHT TO
MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD WITH THIS PATTERN. /21
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...A FRONT WILL MOVER SOUTH OVER THE AREA TODAY...
BRINGING SOMEWHAT COOLER...DEFINITELY DRIER AIR. THE NORTHERLY AIR
BREAKS DOWN THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY BY THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. GENERALLY SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IN THE MIXING
LAYER WILL INCREASE MOISTURE LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE 87 56 85 60 86 / 05 00 00 00 05
PENSACOLA 89 61 85 64 85 / 05 00 00 00 05
DESTIN 85 63 83 66 83 / 00 00 00 00 05
EVERGREEN 85 50 86 52 88 / 00 00 00 00 05
WAYNESBORO 84 51 86 54 88 / 00 00 00 00 10
CAMDEN 83 49 87 53 88 / 00 00 00 00 10
CRESTVIEW 90 50 87 53 88 / 00 00 00 00 05
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
21/16
000
FXUS64 KMOB 240425 AAB
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...AVIATION UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1125 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.AVIATION (24.06Z ISSUANCE)...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. /13
&&
.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT]...WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW A WEAKEN SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO
DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE STRONGER UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS LOOK TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...AND WITH THE
LOW LEVEL FOCUS OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY OVER MISSISSIPPI
ZONES AND EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA AND THE COASTAL WATERS. IT IS
IN THESE AREAS THAT THE BETTER MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE...ALTHOUGH
STILL RATHER LIMITED. AS THE FRONT MOVES OUT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF ON
FRIDAY...DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND EVEN DRIER AIRMASS WILL PRECLUDE
ANY RAIN CHANCES. WITH THE DRIER AIRMASS TONIGHT...AM NOT EXPECTING
ANY WIDESPREAD FOG TO DEVELOPMENT. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS TONIGHT NEAR
CLIMO...WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S INLAND AND UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S COASTAL. NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL MAX TEMPS ON FRIDAY...IN THE
LOW TO MID 80S INTERIOR AND SOME UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 OVER PORTIONS
(AWAY FROM THE BEACHES) OF THE COASTAL ZONES. 12/DS
CLEAR AND COOLER CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY NIGHT ARE FORECAST TO BE SOME 7 TO 10 DEGREES LOWER THAN
TONIGHT`S MINS. /10
.LONG TERM [MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND THROUGH THURSDAY]...WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS
QUIET WITH NO RAIN IN THE FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FORECAST TO
HOLD WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE TO REMAIN MOSTLY LIMITED. AXIS OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS INTO THE
SOUTHEAST LATE THIS WEEKEND AND THEN OFF THE EAST COAST NEXT WEEK.
THUS...UNDER SOUTHERLY WINDS...WARM DAYTIME TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL MODERATE...MOVING WELL INTO THE 60S BY NEXT WEEK.
CLOSER TO 70 ALONG THE BEACHES. /10
&&
.MARINE...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH TOWARD AND THEN ACROSS
THE MARINE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
REBUILDING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RIDGE SOUTH OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO THROUGH TUESDAY. AN OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
MARINE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...LIKELY REACHING
EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS FRIDAY NIGHT. BY SATURDAY AND INTO THE EARLY
PART OF NEXT WEEK...FLOW BECOMES MORE EASTERLY THEN SOUTHEASTERLY AND
WEAKENS AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OVER THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC
COAST. 12/DS
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...WILL BE MOVING INTO A DRY PERIOD THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. ALTHOUGH LOWEST
DAYTIME HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE APPROACHING OR MOVING BELOW CRITICAL
LEVELS...NOT EXPECTED TO MEET OTHER CRITERIA SUCH AS REQUIRED ENERGY
RELEASE COMPONENTS (ERC`S)...20 FT WIND SPEED AND KBDI FOR FIRE
WEATHER HEADLINES. ON FRIDAY...DAILY DISPERSION RATING IS FORECAST TO
MOVE ABOVE 75...WHICH WILL BE IN THE GOOD CATEGORY. /10
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE 66 87 56 84 59 / 20 00 00 00 00
PENSACOLA 69 90 62 84 64 / 10 00 00 00 00
DESTIN 69 85 64 83 66 / 10 00 00 00 00
EVERGREEN 61 85 51 86 53 / 10 00 00 00 00
WAYNESBORO 61 84 51 86 52 / 10 05 00 00 00
CAMDEN 61 82 52 84 54 / 10 00 00 00 00
CRESTVIEW 62 89 51 87 54 / 05 00 00 00 00
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMOB 232328 AAA
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...AVIATION UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
625 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.AVIATION (24.00Z ISSUANCE)...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. /13
&&
.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT]...WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW A WEAKEN SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO
DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE STRONGER UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS LOOK TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...AND WITH THE
LOW LEVEL FOCUS OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY OVER MISSISSIPPI
ZONES AND EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA AND THE COASTAL WATERS. IT IS
IN THESE AREAS THAT THE BETTER MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE...ALTHOUGH
STILL RATHER LIMITED. AS THE FRONT MOVES OUT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF ON
FRIDAY...DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND EVEN DRIER AIRMASS WILL PRECLUDE
ANY RAIN CHANCES. WITH THE DRIER AIRMASS TONIGHT...AM NOT EXPECTING
ANY WIDESPREAD FOG TO DEVELOPMENT. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS TONIGHT NEAR
CLIMO...WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S INLAND AND UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S COASTAL. NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL MAX TEMPS ON FRIDAY...IN THE
LOW TO MID 80S INTERIOR AND SOME UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 OVER PORTIONS
(AWAY FROM THE BEACHES) OF THE COASTAL ZONES. 12/DS
CLEAR AND COOLER CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY NIGHT ARE FORECAST TO BE SOME 7 TO 10 DEGREES LOWER THAN
TONIGHT`S MINS. /10
.LONG TERM [MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND THROUGH THURSDAY]...WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS
QUIET WITH NO RAIN IN THE FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FORECAST TO
HOLD WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE TO REMAIN MOSTLY LIMITED. AXIS OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS INTO THE
SOUTHEAST LATE THIS WEEKEND AND THEN OFF THE EAST COAST NEXT WEEK.
THUS...UNDER SOUTHERLY WINDS...WARM DAYTIME TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL MODERATE...MOVING WELL INTO THE 60S BY NEXT WEEK.
CLOSER TO 70 ALONG THE BEACHES. /10
&&
.MARINE...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH TOWARD AND THEN ACROSS
THE MARINE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
REBUILDING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RIDGE SOUTH OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO THROUGH TUESDAY. AN OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
MARINE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...LIKELY REACHING
EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS FRIDAY NIGHT. BY SATURDAY AND INTO THE EARLY
PART OF NEXT WEEK...FLOW BECOMES MORE EASTERLY THEN SOUTHEASTERLY AND
WEAKENS AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OVER THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC
COAST. 12/DS
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...WILL BE MOVING INTO A DRY PERIOD THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. ALTHOUGH LOWEST
DAYTIME HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE APPROACHING OR MOVING BELOW CRITICAL
LEVELS...NOT EXPECTED TO MEET OTHER CRITERIA SUCH AS REQUIRED ENERGY
RELEASE COMPONENTS (ERC`S)...20 FT WIND SPEED AND KBDI FOR FIRE
WEATHER HEADLINES. ON FRIDAY...DAILY DISPERSION RATING IS FORECAST TO
MOVE ABOVE 75...WHICH WILL BE IN THE GOOD CATEGORY. /10
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE 66 87 56 84 59 / 20 00 00 00 00
PENSACOLA 69 90 62 84 64 / 10 00 00 00 00
DESTIN 69 85 64 83 66 / 10 00 00 00 00
EVERGREEN 61 85 51 86 53 / 10 00 00 00 00
WAYNESBORO 61 84 51 86 52 / 10 05 00 00 00
CAMDEN 61 82 52 84 54 / 10 00 00 00 00
CRESTVIEW 62 89 51 87 54 / 05 00 00 00 00
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMOB 232047
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
347 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT]...WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW A WEAKEN SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO
DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE STRONGER UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS LOOK TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...AND WITH THE
LOW LEVEL FOCUS OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY OVER MISSISSIPPI
ZONES AND EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA AND THE COASTAL WATERS. IT IS
IN THESE AREAS THAT THE BETTER MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE...ALTHOUGH
STILL RATHER LIMITED. AS THE FRONT MOVES OUT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF ON
FRIDAY...DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND EVEN DRIER AIRMASS WILL PRECLUDE
ANY RAIN CHANCES. WITH THE DRIER AIRMASS TONIGHT...AM NOT EXPECTING
ANY WIDESPREAD FOG TO DEVELOPMENT. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS TONIGHT NEAR
CLIMO...WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S INLAND AND UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S COASTAL. NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL MAX TEMPS ON FRIDAY...IN THE
LOW TO MID 80S INTERIOR AND SOME UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 OVER PORTIONS
(AWAY FROM THE BEACHES) OF THE COASTAL ZONES. 12/DS
CLEAR AND COOLER CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY NIGHT ARE FORECAST TO BE SOME 7 TO 10 DEGREES LOWER THAN
TONIGHT`S MINS. /10
.LONG TERM [MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND THROUGH THURSDAY]...WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS
QUIET WITH NO RAIN IN THE FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FORECAST TO
HOLD WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE TO REMAIN MOSTLY LIMITED. AXIS OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS INTO THE
SOUTHEAST LATE THIS WEEKEND AND THEN OFF THE EAST COAST NEXT WEEK.
THUS...UNDER SOUTHERLY WINDS...WARM DAYTIME TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL MODERATE...MOVING WELL INTO THE 60S BY NEXT WEEK.
CLOSER TO 70 ALONG THE BEACHES. /10
&&
.AVIATION...MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS. ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...BUT VERY WIDELY SCATTERED
AND DID NOT INCLUDE IN TERMINALS. FOG SHOULD ALSO BE LIMITED TONIGHT
DUE TO DRY AIRMASS...THUS NO SIGNIFICANT RESTRICTIONS TO SFC VSBY
EXPECTED. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS EVENING BECOMING LIGHT
NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. 12/DS
&&
.MARINE...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH TOWARD AND THEN ACROSS
THE MARINE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
REBUILDING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RIDGE SOUTH OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO THROUGH TUESDAY. AN OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
MARINE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...LIKELY REACHING
EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS FRIDAY NIGHT. BY SATURDAY AND INTO THE EARLY
PART OF NEXT WEEK...FLOW BECOMES MORE EASTERLY THEN SOUTHEASTERLY AND
WEAKENS AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OVER THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC
COAST. 12/DS
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...WILL BE MOVING INTO A DRY PERIOD THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. ALTHOUGH LOWEST
DAYTIME HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE APPROACHING OR MOVING BELOW CRITICAL
LEVELS...NOT EXPECTED TO MEET OTHER CRITERIA SUCH AS REQUIRED ENERGY
RELEASE COMPONENTS (ERC`S)...20 FT WIND SPEED AND KBDI FOR FIRE
WEATHER HEADLINES. ON FRIDAY...DAILY DISPERSION RATING IS FORECAST TO
MOVE ABOVE 75...WHICH WILL BE IN THE GOOD CATEGORY. /10
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE 66 87 56 84 59 / 20 00 00 00 00
PENSACOLA 69 90 62 84 64 / 10 00 00 00 00
DESTIN 69 85 64 83 66 / 10 00 00 00 00
EVERGREEN 61 85 51 86 53 / 10 00 00 00 00
WAYNESBORO 61 84 51 86 52 / 10 05 00 00 00
CAMDEN 61 82 52 84 54 / 10 00 00 00 00
CRESTVIEW 62 89 51 87 54 / 05 00 00 00 00
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMOB 231551
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1045 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.UPDATE...UPDATED ZONES TO REMOVE WORDING FOR PATCHY FOG...OTHERWISE
NO CHANGES. 12/DS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE 88 65 88 58 85 / 00 20 05 00 00
PENSACOLA 88 69 87 63 85 / 00 10 05 00 00
DESTIN 83 70 86 66 82 / 00 10 00 00 00
EVERGREEN 91 61 86 52 85 / 05 10 00 00 00
WAYNESBORO 90 62 85 51 86 / 05 10 05 00 00
CAMDEN 90 61 83 51 84 / 05 10 00 00 00
CRESTVIEW 91 61 89 52 87 / 00 05 00 00 00
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
32/21
000
FXUS64 KMOB 231550
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1045 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.UPDATE...UPDATED ZONES TO REMOVE WORDING FOR PATCHY FOG...OTHERWISE
NO CHAGES. 12/DS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE 88 65 88 58 85 / 00 20 05 00 00
PENSACOLA 88 69 87 63 85 / 00 10 05 00 00
DESTIN 83 70 86 66 82 / 00 10 00 00 00
EVERGREEN 91 61 86 52 85 / 05 10 00 00 00
WAYNESBORO 90 62 85 51 86 / 05 10 05 00 00
CAMDEN 90 61 83 51 84 / 05 10 00 00 00
CRESTVIEW 91 61 89 52 87 / 00 05 00 00 00
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
32/21
000
FXUS64 KMOB 230940
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
440 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SHORT TERM [TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT]...AXIS OF MAIN UPPER TROF THAT
BROUGHT CONVECTION TO THE REGION YESTERDAY IS NOW EAST OF THE CWFA
RESULTING IN A MUCH DRIER WEATHER PATTERN TODAY AND TONIGHT. AS THE
UPPER TROF SHIFTS FURTHER EAST TODAY A SHARP MID TO UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE SOUTH CENTRAL CONUS WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY AND GRADUALLY SHIFT
EAST OVERNIGHT AND EARLY FRI. AHEAD OF THIS UPPER RIDGE A BROAD
SURFACE RIDGE DIVES SOUTH FROM CANADA EVENTUALLY BRINGING COOLER
DRIER AIR THE REGION BEGINNING EARLY FRI CONTINUING THROUGH THE
FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. FOR TODAY EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH
A MODERATE SW FLOW DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL CLIMB TO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S INLAND AND
IN THE MID 80S NEAR THE COAST. AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE
LOWER THAN YESTERDAY. AS RESULT WITH MORE SUN THEN CLOUDS COMBINED
WITH LOWER HUMIDITIES AND A GOOD AFTERNOON SEABREEZE FROM THE SW
CONDITIONS WILL FEEL RATHER PLEASANT. FOR TONIGHT COOLER DRIER AIR
ADVECTS SOUTHWARD WITH MAYBE A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORMS FORMING
ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS AIRMASS MOSTLY NEAR THE COAST AND
OFFSHORE EARLY THIS EVENING. TONIGHTS LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER
60S INLAND AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S NEAR THE COAST. STILL COULD
SEE SOME FOG EARLY THIS MORNING WITH THE BETTER DEVELOPMENT JUST
INLAND FROM THE COAST AND AREAS TO THE WEST. 32/EE
THE WET MICROBURST RISK FOR TODAY IS LOW.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY FROM
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH MUCH OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
UPPER MIDWESTERN STATES FRIDAY...WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES
TO SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE EAST COAST AND MID ATLANTIC
STATES. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE PREVALENT ACROSS OUR AREA
BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES FRIDAY...AND A DEEP LAYER DRY AIRMASS
SPREADING SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE GULF COAST WILL SUPPORT MOSTLY SUNNY
AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MEANWHILE BUILD FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO THE GULF
COAST FRIDAY...ALLOWING FOR A CONTINUED NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW ACROSS
THE CWFA. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON...
PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHERE
HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 80S. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
MOSTLY WARM TO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY TO THE GULF COAST FRIDAY NIGHT. A MUCH DRIER SURFACE AIRMASS
WILL ALSO SPREAD INTO THE FORECAST AREA...WITH DEWPOINTS LIKELY
FALLING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS BY
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS DRY AIRMASS...ALONG WITH CONTINUED
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD SUPPORT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
MORNING. WE EXPECT LOWS TO RANGE FROM AROUND 50 TO THE LOWER 50S
ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE CWFA...AND IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND
60 NEAR THE COAST. /21
.LONG TERM [MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TO
NEAR THE GULF COAST REGION THIS UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A DEEP
LAYER DRY AIRMASS LOOKS TO STAY IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHER THAN A GRADUAL INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUD
COVER...SKIES SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH NO RAIN EXPECTED. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD REMAIN
ORIENTED FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE VICINITY OF THE NORTHEASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO THIS WEEKEND. CONTINUED WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED...SLOWLY TRENDING UPWARD A FEW DEGREES BY SUNDAY. EARLY
MORNING LOWS SUNDAY SHOULD REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH THE DRY AIRMASS
STAYING IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION.
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF WILL FLATTEN MONDAY...WITH WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ANTICIPATED OVER MUCH OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. SHORTWAVE TROUGHINESS WITHIN THIS FLOW REGIME
CURRENTLY LOOKS TO STAY WELL TO THE NORTH OF OUR CWFA MEMORIAL DAY...
SO WE WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION. LITTLE CHANGE
IN TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR MONDAY...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 INLAND...TO THE MID 80S NEAR THE BEACHES.
MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS THEN SHOW AGREEMENT WITH STRENGTHENING AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF EITHER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OR THE GULF COAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. RAIN
CHANCES LOOK VERY MINIMAL UNDERNEATH THIS PATTERN...SO WILL MAINTAIN
A DRY FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY. /21
&&
.AVIATION...[12Z ISSUANCE]...MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT
14Z THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT. STILL
EXPECT SOME LOW STRATUS AND FOG EARLY THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY SOME
SCT LOW CLOUDS MIXED WITH SCT TO BKN HIGH CLOUDS LATER IN THE DAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT
POSSIBLY LEADING TO AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM NEAR THE
COAST LATE IN THE DAY OR EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BECOME
MOSTLY SOUTHWEST AT 8 TO 12 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON
BECOMING NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS EARLY FRI MORNING. 32/EE
&&
.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN GULF WILL BECOME
REINFORCED LATE FRI THROUGH SAT IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE FRI AND FRI NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT A
MODERATE SW FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATER TODAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING THEN SHIFT NORTH AND GRADUALLY BUILD TO NEAR 20 KNOTS LATE
FRI AND THROUGH SAT MORNING. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FEET FRI
NIGHT AND EARLY SAT MOSTLY WELL OFFSHORE. A MODERATE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW IS EXPECTED LATER IN THE WEEKEND CONTINUING
THROUGH MID WEEK AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. ALSO COULD SEE A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING AHEAD OF THE COOLER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH. 32/EE
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS TODAY THOUGH A SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION. HIGHER DISPERSIONS ARE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON WITH MIXING HEIGHTS INCREASING TO AROUND 6000-7000 FT
AGL. A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WILL THEN SPREAD INTO THE REGION FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED
TO FALL TO NEAR CRITICAL LEVELS ACROSS OUR ALABAMA COUNTIES
FRIDAY...THEN ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN
THE MARGINALITY OF CRITICAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OVER OUR ALABAMA
COUNTIES...AND THAT HIGHER KBDI VALUES AND WIND SPEEDS MAY STAY JUST
EAST OF OUR AREA...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH FRIDAY ATTM. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS SATURDAY...AND LATER SHIFTS WILL MONITOR FOR
POTENTIAL WATCH ISSUANCE. /21
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE 88 65 88 58 85 / 00 20 05 00 00
PENSACOLA 88 69 87 63 85 / 00 10 05 00 00
DESTIN 83 70 86 66 82 / 00 10 00 00 00
EVERGREEN 91 61 86 52 85 / 05 10 00 00 00
WAYNESBORO 90 62 85 51 86 / 05 10 05 00 00
CAMDEN 90 61 83 51 84 / 05 10 00 00 00
CRESTVIEW 91 61 89 52 87 / 00 05 00 00 00
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
32/21
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