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000
FXUS64 KMOB 260015 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
615 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED FOR THE EXPIRATION OF THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY.
REMAINING PACKAGE IS ON TRACK. /29

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...NEARLY STATIONARY
SURFACE COLD FRONT REMAINS WELL EAST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...
BUT DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT IS CREATING ENOUGH
ISENTROPIC LIFTING NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY FOR CONTINUED RAIN AND
SHOWERS OVER OUR EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE COUNTIES. THE SFC LOW
INTENSIFIES THIS EVENING AS IT MOVES TOWARD AND ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA. THIS COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE LOCATION OF THE RIGHT REAR
QUADRANT OF AN UPPER JET MOVING UP ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND A
STRONG MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL ALLOW FOR
THE PCPN TO OUR EAST TO EXPAND A LITTLE MORE TO THE NORTHWEST ACROSS
THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FCST AREA THIS EVENING (MAINLY AREAS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-65). AS MENTIONED BY PREVIOUS SHIFT...THERE
WILL LIKELY BE A SHARP CUTOFF TO THE RAIN THE FURTHER WEST YOU GO.
HOWEVER...AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT RAINS WILL BE MOVING RAPIDLY EAST
OUT OF THE FCST AREA AS THE UPPER DYNAMICS QUICKLY LIFT OUT...
FINALLY SWEEPING THE LINGER SFC FRONT WELL OUT OF THE FCST AREA.
SKIES WILL QUICKLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE SHORTWAVE
PROGRESSES THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT.

A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY...BUT AS ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS
THE MIDWEST...ANOTHER QUICK MOVING FRONT WILL APPROACH AND MOVE
ACROSS THE FCST AREA BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH THE LACK OF DEEP
MOISTURE OVER THE AREA...NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING MORE THAN A
REINFORCEMENT OF THE COOLER DRIER AIR AND THE NW-N WIND FLOW WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT.

A CHILLY NIGHT EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE LOW TO
MID 30S WEST OF I-65 WITH UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S FURTHER EAST AND
DOWN ALONG THE COAST. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 60S
EASTERN AND COASTAL COUNTIES AND IN THE MID 60S OVER INTERIOR
WESTERN COUNTIES. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THANKSGIVING
MORNING IN THE MID 30S OVER ALL INLAND AREAS...AND IN THE UPPER 30S
TO LOWER 40S NEARER AND ALONG THE COAST. 12/DS

LONG TERM (THANKSGIVING DAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...MID TO UPPER TROF
AXIS MOVES EAST TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY MIDDAY THU WITH A SURFACE
COLD FRONT EXITING TO THE EAST BY 12Z THU. THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THANKSGIVING DAY WITH BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THE BETTER WINDS DURING THE DAY ON THU WILL
MAKE CONDITIONS FEEL MORE FALL LIKE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. UPPER FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL LATE THU AND CONTINUES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS STATES TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD THROUGH SAT THEN FURTHER EAST
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO DIMINISH EARLY THU NIGHT SHIFTING MOSTLY SOUTH BY LATE FRI
AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY
CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST. A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS BY LATE FRI
AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND THEN BUILDS SLIGHTLY BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. WITH THE BETTER ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE TEMPS WILL BEGIN
TO WARM ESPECIALLY OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH BETTER
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING INLAND RESULTING IN SFC DEWPTS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 BY SUN IN TO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN
CONCERN WITH THIS PATTEN WILL BE THE ONSET OF ADVECTION FOG MOSTLY
OVER THE LOWER HALF OF THE CWFA BY SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON.
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND BETTER MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH MIDWEEK AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE THU INTO FRI.
OTHERWISE...MADE LITTLE TO NO TWEAKS TO THE EXTENDED GRIDS FOR NOW.
HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S BOTH THU AND FRI
WARMING TO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S OVER THE WEEKEND AND THE EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES THROUGH MIDWEEK. LOW TEMPS
WILL BE IN MID TO UPPER 30S FRI MORNING THEN WARM TO THE MID 40S TO
THE WEST AND THE UPPER 30S TO THE EAST SAT THEN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
50S FOR ALL AREAS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. 32/EE

AVIATION...
26/00Z TAF ISSUANCE...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY WITH PRIMARILY HIGH CLOUDS...BUT LOWER A BIT SLIGHTLY LATE
TONIGHT ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN HALF OF FCST AREA. SOME LIGHT RAIN
POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER FLORIDA PANHANDLE
AND INTERIOR SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA. PRIMARILY A WIND FCST...WITH SFC
WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH AT 10 TO 15 MPH...WITH POSSIBLE
HIGHER GUSTS NEAR THE COAST. 12/DS

MARINE...A MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT...AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS
IN EFFECT. LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WINDS RELAX BRIEFLY AND
BECOME MORE WESTERLY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES IN FROM THE WEST.
WINDS BECOME NORTHWESTERLY AGAIN...AND LIKELY INCREASE TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AGAIN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY
WITH THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT. NO SHOWERS OR
STORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. LATE WEEK AND THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...WINDS WEAKEN AND VEER NE-E-SE. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      36  62  40  60  38 /  30  00  05  00  00
PENSACOLA   40  62  43  60  40 /  70  00  05  00  00
DESTIN      45  62  46  58  43 /  70  00  10  00  00
EVERGREEN   37  61  34  58  35 /  50  00  10  00  00
WAYNESBORO  32  64  36  58  34 /  20  05  05  00  00
CAMDEN      35  60  34  57  34 /  30  05  05  00  00
CRESTVIEW   38  61  37  61  36 /  70  00  10  00  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT
     20 NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...NORTHERN
     MOBILE BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...PERDIDO BAY...SOUTHERN
     MOBILE BAY...

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMOB 260015 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
615 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED FOR THE EXPIRATION OF THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY.
REMAINING PACKAGE IS ON TRACK. /29

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...NEARLY STATIONARY
SURFACE COLD FRONT REMAINS WELL EAST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...
BUT DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT IS CREATING ENOUGH
ISENTROPIC LIFTING NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY FOR CONTINUED RAIN AND
SHOWERS OVER OUR EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE COUNTIES. THE SFC LOW
INTENSIFIES THIS EVENING AS IT MOVES TOWARD AND ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA. THIS COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE LOCATION OF THE RIGHT REAR
QUADRANT OF AN UPPER JET MOVING UP ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND A
STRONG MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL ALLOW FOR
THE PCPN TO OUR EAST TO EXPAND A LITTLE MORE TO THE NORTHWEST ACROSS
THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FCST AREA THIS EVENING (MAINLY AREAS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-65). AS MENTIONED BY PREVIOUS SHIFT...THERE
WILL LIKELY BE A SHARP CUTOFF TO THE RAIN THE FURTHER WEST YOU GO.
HOWEVER...AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT RAINS WILL BE MOVING RAPIDLY EAST
OUT OF THE FCST AREA AS THE UPPER DYNAMICS QUICKLY LIFT OUT...
FINALLY SWEEPING THE LINGER SFC FRONT WELL OUT OF THE FCST AREA.
SKIES WILL QUICKLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE SHORTWAVE
PROGRESSES THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT.

A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY...BUT AS ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS
THE MIDWEST...ANOTHER QUICK MOVING FRONT WILL APPROACH AND MOVE
ACROSS THE FCST AREA BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH THE LACK OF DEEP
MOISTURE OVER THE AREA...NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING MORE THAN A
REINFORCEMENT OF THE COOLER DRIER AIR AND THE NW-N WIND FLOW WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT.

A CHILLY NIGHT EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE LOW TO
MID 30S WEST OF I-65 WITH UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S FURTHER EAST AND
DOWN ALONG THE COAST. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 60S
EASTERN AND COASTAL COUNTIES AND IN THE MID 60S OVER INTERIOR
WESTERN COUNTIES. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THANKSGIVING
MORNING IN THE MID 30S OVER ALL INLAND AREAS...AND IN THE UPPER 30S
TO LOWER 40S NEARER AND ALONG THE COAST. 12/DS

LONG TERM (THANKSGIVING DAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...MID TO UPPER TROF
AXIS MOVES EAST TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY MIDDAY THU WITH A SURFACE
COLD FRONT EXITING TO THE EAST BY 12Z THU. THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THANKSGIVING DAY WITH BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THE BETTER WINDS DURING THE DAY ON THU WILL
MAKE CONDITIONS FEEL MORE FALL LIKE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. UPPER FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL LATE THU AND CONTINUES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS STATES TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD THROUGH SAT THEN FURTHER EAST
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO DIMINISH EARLY THU NIGHT SHIFTING MOSTLY SOUTH BY LATE FRI
AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY
CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST. A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS BY LATE FRI
AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND THEN BUILDS SLIGHTLY BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. WITH THE BETTER ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE TEMPS WILL BEGIN
TO WARM ESPECIALLY OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH BETTER
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING INLAND RESULTING IN SFC DEWPTS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 BY SUN IN TO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN
CONCERN WITH THIS PATTEN WILL BE THE ONSET OF ADVECTION FOG MOSTLY
OVER THE LOWER HALF OF THE CWFA BY SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON.
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND BETTER MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH MIDWEEK AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE THU INTO FRI.
OTHERWISE...MADE LITTLE TO NO TWEAKS TO THE EXTENDED GRIDS FOR NOW.
HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S BOTH THU AND FRI
WARMING TO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S OVER THE WEEKEND AND THE EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES THROUGH MIDWEEK. LOW TEMPS
WILL BE IN MID TO UPPER 30S FRI MORNING THEN WARM TO THE MID 40S TO
THE WEST AND THE UPPER 30S TO THE EAST SAT THEN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
50S FOR ALL AREAS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. 32/EE

AVIATION...
26/00Z TAF ISSUANCE...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY WITH PRIMARILY HIGH CLOUDS...BUT LOWER A BIT SLIGHTLY LATE
TONIGHT ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN HALF OF FCST AREA. SOME LIGHT RAIN
POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER FLORIDA PANHANDLE
AND INTERIOR SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA. PRIMARILY A WIND FCST...WITH SFC
WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH AT 10 TO 15 MPH...WITH POSSIBLE
HIGHER GUSTS NEAR THE COAST. 12/DS

MARINE...A MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT...AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS
IN EFFECT. LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WINDS RELAX BRIEFLY AND
BECOME MORE WESTERLY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES IN FROM THE WEST.
WINDS BECOME NORTHWESTERLY AGAIN...AND LIKELY INCREASE TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AGAIN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY
WITH THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT. NO SHOWERS OR
STORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. LATE WEEK AND THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...WINDS WEAKEN AND VEER NE-E-SE. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      36  62  40  60  38 /  30  00  05  00  00
PENSACOLA   40  62  43  60  40 /  70  00  05  00  00
DESTIN      45  62  46  58  43 /  70  00  10  00  00
EVERGREEN   37  61  34  58  35 /  50  00  10  00  00
WAYNESBORO  32  64  36  58  34 /  20  05  05  00  00
CAMDEN      35  60  34  57  34 /  30  05  05  00  00
CRESTVIEW   38  61  37  61  36 /  70  00  10  00  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT
     20 NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...NORTHERN
     MOBILE BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...PERDIDO BAY...SOUTHERN
     MOBILE BAY...

&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KMOB 252154
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
354 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...NEARLY STATIONARY
SURFACE COLD FRONT REMAINS WELL EAST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...
BUT DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT IS CREATING ENOUGH
ISENTROPIC LIFTING NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY FOR CONTINUED RAIN AND
SHOWERS OVER OUR EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE COUNTIES. THE SFC LOW
INTENSIFIES THIS EVENING AS IT MOVES TOWARD AND ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA. THIS COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE LOCATION OF THE RIGHT REAR
QUADRANT OF AN UPPER JET MOVING UP ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND A
STRONG MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL ALLOW FOR
THE PCPN TO OUR EAST TO EXPAND A LITTLE MORE TO THE NORTHWEST ACROSS
THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FCST AREA THIS EVENING (MAINLY AREAS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-65). AS MENTIONED BY PREVIOUS SHIFT...THERE
WILL LIKELY BE A SHARP CUTOFF TO THE RAIN THE FURTHER WEST YOU GO.
HOWEVER...AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT RAINS WILL BE MOVING RAPIDLY EAST
OUT OF THE FCST AREA AS THE UPPER DYNAMICS QUICKLY LIFT OUT...
FINALLY SWEEPING THE LINGER SFC FRONT WELL OUT OF THE FCST AREA.
SKIES WILL QUICKLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE SHORTWAVE
PROGRESSES THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT.

A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY...BUT AS ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS
THE MIDWEST...ANOTHER QUICK MOVING FRONT WILL APPROACH AND MOVE
ACROSS THE FCST AREA BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH THE LACK OF DEEP
MOISTURE OVER THE AREA...NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING MORE THAN A
REINFORCEMENT OF THE COOLER DRIER AIR AND THE NW-N WINDFLOW WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT.

A CHILLY NIGHT EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE LOW TO
MID 30S WEST OF I-65 WITH UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S FURTHER EAST AND
DOWN ALONG THE COAST. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 60S
EASTERN AND COASTAL COUNTIES AND IN THE MID 60S OVER INTERIOR
WESTERN COUNTIES. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THANKSGIVING
MORNING IN THE MID 30S OVER ALL INLAND AREAS...AND IN THE UPPER 30S
TO LOWER 40S NEARER AND ALONG THE COAST. 12/DS

&&

.LONG TERM (THANKSGIVING DAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...MID TO UPPER TROF
AXIS MOVES EAST TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY MIDDAY THU WITH A SURFACE
COLD FRONT EXITING TO THE EAST BY 12Z THU. THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THANKSGIVING DAY WITH BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THE BETTER WINDS DURING THE DAY ON THU WILL
MAKE CONDITIONS FEEL MORE FALL LIKE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. UPPER FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL LATE THU AND CONTINUES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS STATES TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD THROUGH SAT THEN FURTHER EAST
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO DIMINISH EARLY THU NIGHT SHIFTING MOSTLY SOUTH BY LATE FRI
AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY
CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST. A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS BY LATE FRI
AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND THEN BUILDS SLIGHTLY BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. WITH THE BETTER ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE TEMPS WILL BEGIN
TO WARM ESPECIALLY OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH BETTER
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING INLAND RESULTING IN SFC DEWPTS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 BY SUN IN TO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN
CONCERN WITH THIS PATTEN WILL BE THE ONSET OF ADVECTION FOG MOSTLY
OVER THE LOWER HALF OF THE CWFA BY SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON.
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND BETTER MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH MIDWEEK AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE THU INTO FRI.
OTHERWISE...MADE LITTLE TO NO TWEAKS TO THE EXTENDED GRIDS FOR NOW.
HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S BOTH THU AND FRI
WARMING TO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S OVER THE WEEKEND AND THE EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES THROUGH MIDWEEK. LOW TEMPS
WILL BE IN MID TO UPPER 30S FRI MORNING THEN WARM TO THE MID 40S TO
THE WEST AND THE UPPER 30S TO THE EAST SAT THEN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
50S FOR ALL AREAS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. 32/EE

&&

.AVIATION...
26/00Z TAF ISSUANCE...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY WITH PRIMARILY HIGH CLOUDS...BUT LOWER A BIT SLIGHTLY LATE
TONIGHT ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN HALF OF FCST AREA. SOME LIGHT RAIN
POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER FLORIDA PANHANDLE
AND INTERIOR SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA. PRIMARILY A WIND FCST...WITH SFC
WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH AT 10 TO 15 MPH...WITH POSSIBLE
HIGHER GUSTS NEAR THE COAST. 12/DS

&&

.MARINE...A MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT...AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS
IN EFFECT. LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WINDS RELAX BRIEFLY AND
BECOME MORE WESTERLY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES IN FROM THE WEST.
WINDS BECOME NORTHWESTERLY AGAIN...AND LIKELY INCREASE TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AGAIN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY
WITH THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT. NO SHOWERS OR
STORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. LATE WEEK AND THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...WINDS WEAKEN AND VEER NE-E-SE. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      36  62  40  60  38 /  30  00  05  00  00
PENSACOLA   40  62  43  60  40 /  70  00  05  00  00
DESTIN      45  62  46  58  43 /  70  00  10  00  00
EVERGREEN   37  61  34  58  35 /  50  00  10  00  00
WAYNESBORO  32  64  36  58  34 /  20  05  05  00  00
CAMDEN      35  60  34  57  34 /  30  05  05  00  00
CRESTVIEW   38  61  37  61  36 /  70  00  10  00  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA
     ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...NORTHERN
     MOBILE BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...PERDIDO BAY...SOUTHERN
     MOBILE BAY...

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT
     20 NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMOB 252154
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
354 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...NEARLY STATIONARY
SURFACE COLD FRONT REMAINS WELL EAST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...
BUT DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT IS CREATING ENOUGH
ISENTROPIC LIFTING NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY FOR CONTINUED RAIN AND
SHOWERS OVER OUR EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE COUNTIES. THE SFC LOW
INTENSIFIES THIS EVENING AS IT MOVES TOWARD AND ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA. THIS COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE LOCATION OF THE RIGHT REAR
QUADRANT OF AN UPPER JET MOVING UP ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND A
STRONG MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL ALLOW FOR
THE PCPN TO OUR EAST TO EXPAND A LITTLE MORE TO THE NORTHWEST ACROSS
THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FCST AREA THIS EVENING (MAINLY AREAS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-65). AS MENTIONED BY PREVIOUS SHIFT...THERE
WILL LIKELY BE A SHARP CUTOFF TO THE RAIN THE FURTHER WEST YOU GO.
HOWEVER...AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT RAINS WILL BE MOVING RAPIDLY EAST
OUT OF THE FCST AREA AS THE UPPER DYNAMICS QUICKLY LIFT OUT...
FINALLY SWEEPING THE LINGER SFC FRONT WELL OUT OF THE FCST AREA.
SKIES WILL QUICKLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE SHORTWAVE
PROGRESSES THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT.

A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY...BUT AS ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS
THE MIDWEST...ANOTHER QUICK MOVING FRONT WILL APPROACH AND MOVE
ACROSS THE FCST AREA BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH THE LACK OF DEEP
MOISTURE OVER THE AREA...NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING MORE THAN A
REINFORCEMENT OF THE COOLER DRIER AIR AND THE NW-N WINDFLOW WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT.

A CHILLY NIGHT EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE LOW TO
MID 30S WEST OF I-65 WITH UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S FURTHER EAST AND
DOWN ALONG THE COAST. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 60S
EASTERN AND COASTAL COUNTIES AND IN THE MID 60S OVER INTERIOR
WESTERN COUNTIES. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THANKSGIVING
MORNING IN THE MID 30S OVER ALL INLAND AREAS...AND IN THE UPPER 30S
TO LOWER 40S NEARER AND ALONG THE COAST. 12/DS

&&

.LONG TERM (THANKSGIVING DAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...MID TO UPPER TROF
AXIS MOVES EAST TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY MIDDAY THU WITH A SURFACE
COLD FRONT EXITING TO THE EAST BY 12Z THU. THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THANKSGIVING DAY WITH BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THE BETTER WINDS DURING THE DAY ON THU WILL
MAKE CONDITIONS FEEL MORE FALL LIKE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. UPPER FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL LATE THU AND CONTINUES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS STATES TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD THROUGH SAT THEN FURTHER EAST
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO DIMINISH EARLY THU NIGHT SHIFTING MOSTLY SOUTH BY LATE FRI
AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY
CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST. A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS BY LATE FRI
AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND THEN BUILDS SLIGHTLY BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. WITH THE BETTER ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE TEMPS WILL BEGIN
TO WARM ESPECIALLY OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH BETTER
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING INLAND RESULTING IN SFC DEWPTS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 BY SUN IN TO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN
CONCERN WITH THIS PATTEN WILL BE THE ONSET OF ADVECTION FOG MOSTLY
OVER THE LOWER HALF OF THE CWFA BY SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON.
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND BETTER MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH MIDWEEK AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE THU INTO FRI.
OTHERWISE...MADE LITTLE TO NO TWEAKS TO THE EXTENDED GRIDS FOR NOW.
HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S BOTH THU AND FRI
WARMING TO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S OVER THE WEEKEND AND THE EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES THROUGH MIDWEEK. LOW TEMPS
WILL BE IN MID TO UPPER 30S FRI MORNING THEN WARM TO THE MID 40S TO
THE WEST AND THE UPPER 30S TO THE EAST SAT THEN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
50S FOR ALL AREAS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. 32/EE

&&

.AVIATION...
26/00Z TAF ISSUANCE...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY WITH PRIMARILY HIGH CLOUDS...BUT LOWER A BIT SLIGHTLY LATE
TONIGHT ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN HALF OF FCST AREA. SOME LIGHT RAIN
POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER FLORIDA PANHANDLE
AND INTERIOR SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA. PRIMARILY A WIND FCST...WITH SFC
WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH AT 10 TO 15 MPH...WITH POSSIBLE
HIGHER GUSTS NEAR THE COAST. 12/DS

&&

.MARINE...A MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT...AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS
IN EFFECT. LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WINDS RELAX BRIEFLY AND
BECOME MORE WESTERLY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES IN FROM THE WEST.
WINDS BECOME NORTHWESTERLY AGAIN...AND LIKELY INCREASE TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AGAIN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY
WITH THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT. NO SHOWERS OR
STORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. LATE WEEK AND THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...WINDS WEAKEN AND VEER NE-E-SE. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      36  62  40  60  38 /  30  00  05  00  00
PENSACOLA   40  62  43  60  40 /  70  00  05  00  00
DESTIN      45  62  46  58  43 /  70  00  10  00  00
EVERGREEN   37  61  34  58  35 /  50  00  10  00  00
WAYNESBORO  32  64  36  58  34 /  20  05  05  00  00
CAMDEN      35  60  34  57  34 /  30  05  05  00  00
CRESTVIEW   38  61  37  61  36 /  70  00  10  00  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA
     ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...NORTHERN
     MOBILE BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...PERDIDO BAY...SOUTHERN
     MOBILE BAY...

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT
     20 NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMOB 252154
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
354 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...NEARLY STATIONARY
SURFACE COLD FRONT REMAINS WELL EAST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...
BUT DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT IS CREATING ENOUGH
ISENTROPIC LIFTING NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY FOR CONTINUED RAIN AND
SHOWERS OVER OUR EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE COUNTIES. THE SFC LOW
INTENSIFIES THIS EVENING AS IT MOVES TOWARD AND ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA. THIS COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE LOCATION OF THE RIGHT REAR
QUADRANT OF AN UPPER JET MOVING UP ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND A
STRONG MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL ALLOW FOR
THE PCPN TO OUR EAST TO EXPAND A LITTLE MORE TO THE NORTHWEST ACROSS
THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FCST AREA THIS EVENING (MAINLY AREAS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-65). AS MENTIONED BY PREVIOUS SHIFT...THERE
WILL LIKELY BE A SHARP CUTOFF TO THE RAIN THE FURTHER WEST YOU GO.
HOWEVER...AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT RAINS WILL BE MOVING RAPIDLY EAST
OUT OF THE FCST AREA AS THE UPPER DYNAMICS QUICKLY LIFT OUT...
FINALLY SWEEPING THE LINGER SFC FRONT WELL OUT OF THE FCST AREA.
SKIES WILL QUICKLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE SHORTWAVE
PROGRESSES THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT.

A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY...BUT AS ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS
THE MIDWEST...ANOTHER QUICK MOVING FRONT WILL APPROACH AND MOVE
ACROSS THE FCST AREA BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH THE LACK OF DEEP
MOISTURE OVER THE AREA...NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING MORE THAN A
REINFORCEMENT OF THE COOLER DRIER AIR AND THE NW-N WINDFLOW WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT.

A CHILLY NIGHT EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE LOW TO
MID 30S WEST OF I-65 WITH UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S FURTHER EAST AND
DOWN ALONG THE COAST. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 60S
EASTERN AND COASTAL COUNTIES AND IN THE MID 60S OVER INTERIOR
WESTERN COUNTIES. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THANKSGIVING
MORNING IN THE MID 30S OVER ALL INLAND AREAS...AND IN THE UPPER 30S
TO LOWER 40S NEARER AND ALONG THE COAST. 12/DS

&&

.LONG TERM (THANKSGIVING DAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...MID TO UPPER TROF
AXIS MOVES EAST TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY MIDDAY THU WITH A SURFACE
COLD FRONT EXITING TO THE EAST BY 12Z THU. THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THANKSGIVING DAY WITH BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THE BETTER WINDS DURING THE DAY ON THU WILL
MAKE CONDITIONS FEEL MORE FALL LIKE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. UPPER FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL LATE THU AND CONTINUES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS STATES TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD THROUGH SAT THEN FURTHER EAST
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO DIMINISH EARLY THU NIGHT SHIFTING MOSTLY SOUTH BY LATE FRI
AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY
CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST. A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS BY LATE FRI
AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND THEN BUILDS SLIGHTLY BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. WITH THE BETTER ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE TEMPS WILL BEGIN
TO WARM ESPECIALLY OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH BETTER
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING INLAND RESULTING IN SFC DEWPTS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 BY SUN IN TO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN
CONCERN WITH THIS PATTEN WILL BE THE ONSET OF ADVECTION FOG MOSTLY
OVER THE LOWER HALF OF THE CWFA BY SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON.
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND BETTER MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH MIDWEEK AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE THU INTO FRI.
OTHERWISE...MADE LITTLE TO NO TWEAKS TO THE EXTENDED GRIDS FOR NOW.
HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S BOTH THU AND FRI
WARMING TO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S OVER THE WEEKEND AND THE EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES THROUGH MIDWEEK. LOW TEMPS
WILL BE IN MID TO UPPER 30S FRI MORNING THEN WARM TO THE MID 40S TO
THE WEST AND THE UPPER 30S TO THE EAST SAT THEN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
50S FOR ALL AREAS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. 32/EE

&&

.AVIATION...
26/00Z TAF ISSUANCE...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY WITH PRIMARILY HIGH CLOUDS...BUT LOWER A BIT SLIGHTLY LATE
TONIGHT ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN HALF OF FCST AREA. SOME LIGHT RAIN
POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER FLORIDA PANHANDLE
AND INTERIOR SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA. PRIMARILY A WIND FCST...WITH SFC
WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH AT 10 TO 15 MPH...WITH POSSIBLE
HIGHER GUSTS NEAR THE COAST. 12/DS

&&

.MARINE...A MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT...AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS
IN EFFECT. LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WINDS RELAX BRIEFLY AND
BECOME MORE WESTERLY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES IN FROM THE WEST.
WINDS BECOME NORTHWESTERLY AGAIN...AND LIKELY INCREASE TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AGAIN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY
WITH THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT. NO SHOWERS OR
STORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. LATE WEEK AND THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...WINDS WEAKEN AND VEER NE-E-SE. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      36  62  40  60  38 /  30  00  05  00  00
PENSACOLA   40  62  43  60  40 /  70  00  05  00  00
DESTIN      45  62  46  58  43 /  70  00  10  00  00
EVERGREEN   37  61  34  58  35 /  50  00  10  00  00
WAYNESBORO  32  64  36  58  34 /  20  05  05  00  00
CAMDEN      35  60  34  57  34 /  30  05  05  00  00
CRESTVIEW   38  61  37  61  36 /  70  00  10  00  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA
     ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...NORTHERN
     MOBILE BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...PERDIDO BAY...SOUTHERN
     MOBILE BAY...

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT
     20 NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMOB 252154
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
354 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...NEARLY STATIONARY
SURFACE COLD FRONT REMAINS WELL EAST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...
BUT DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT IS CREATING ENOUGH
ISENTROPIC LIFTING NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY FOR CONTINUED RAIN AND
SHOWERS OVER OUR EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE COUNTIES. THE SFC LOW
INTENSIFIES THIS EVENING AS IT MOVES TOWARD AND ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA. THIS COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE LOCATION OF THE RIGHT REAR
QUADRANT OF AN UPPER JET MOVING UP ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND A
STRONG MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL ALLOW FOR
THE PCPN TO OUR EAST TO EXPAND A LITTLE MORE TO THE NORTHWEST ACROSS
THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FCST AREA THIS EVENING (MAINLY AREAS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-65). AS MENTIONED BY PREVIOUS SHIFT...THERE
WILL LIKELY BE A SHARP CUTOFF TO THE RAIN THE FURTHER WEST YOU GO.
HOWEVER...AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT RAINS WILL BE MOVING RAPIDLY EAST
OUT OF THE FCST AREA AS THE UPPER DYNAMICS QUICKLY LIFT OUT...
FINALLY SWEEPING THE LINGER SFC FRONT WELL OUT OF THE FCST AREA.
SKIES WILL QUICKLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE SHORTWAVE
PROGRESSES THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT.

A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY...BUT AS ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS
THE MIDWEST...ANOTHER QUICK MOVING FRONT WILL APPROACH AND MOVE
ACROSS THE FCST AREA BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH THE LACK OF DEEP
MOISTURE OVER THE AREA...NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING MORE THAN A
REINFORCEMENT OF THE COOLER DRIER AIR AND THE NW-N WINDFLOW WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT.

A CHILLY NIGHT EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE LOW TO
MID 30S WEST OF I-65 WITH UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S FURTHER EAST AND
DOWN ALONG THE COAST. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 60S
EASTERN AND COASTAL COUNTIES AND IN THE MID 60S OVER INTERIOR
WESTERN COUNTIES. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THANKSGIVING
MORNING IN THE MID 30S OVER ALL INLAND AREAS...AND IN THE UPPER 30S
TO LOWER 40S NEARER AND ALONG THE COAST. 12/DS

&&

.LONG TERM (THANKSGIVING DAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...MID TO UPPER TROF
AXIS MOVES EAST TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY MIDDAY THU WITH A SURFACE
COLD FRONT EXITING TO THE EAST BY 12Z THU. THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THANKSGIVING DAY WITH BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THE BETTER WINDS DURING THE DAY ON THU WILL
MAKE CONDITIONS FEEL MORE FALL LIKE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. UPPER FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL LATE THU AND CONTINUES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS STATES TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD THROUGH SAT THEN FURTHER EAST
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO DIMINISH EARLY THU NIGHT SHIFTING MOSTLY SOUTH BY LATE FRI
AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY
CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST. A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS BY LATE FRI
AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND THEN BUILDS SLIGHTLY BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. WITH THE BETTER ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE TEMPS WILL BEGIN
TO WARM ESPECIALLY OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH BETTER
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING INLAND RESULTING IN SFC DEWPTS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 BY SUN IN TO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN
CONCERN WITH THIS PATTEN WILL BE THE ONSET OF ADVECTION FOG MOSTLY
OVER THE LOWER HALF OF THE CWFA BY SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON.
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND BETTER MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH MIDWEEK AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE THU INTO FRI.
OTHERWISE...MADE LITTLE TO NO TWEAKS TO THE EXTENDED GRIDS FOR NOW.
HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S BOTH THU AND FRI
WARMING TO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S OVER THE WEEKEND AND THE EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES THROUGH MIDWEEK. LOW TEMPS
WILL BE IN MID TO UPPER 30S FRI MORNING THEN WARM TO THE MID 40S TO
THE WEST AND THE UPPER 30S TO THE EAST SAT THEN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
50S FOR ALL AREAS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. 32/EE

&&

.AVIATION...
26/00Z TAF ISSUANCE...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY WITH PRIMARILY HIGH CLOUDS...BUT LOWER A BIT SLIGHTLY LATE
TONIGHT ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN HALF OF FCST AREA. SOME LIGHT RAIN
POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER FLORIDA PANHANDLE
AND INTERIOR SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA. PRIMARILY A WIND FCST...WITH SFC
WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH AT 10 TO 15 MPH...WITH POSSIBLE
HIGHER GUSTS NEAR THE COAST. 12/DS

&&

.MARINE...A MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT...AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS
IN EFFECT. LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WINDS RELAX BRIEFLY AND
BECOME MORE WESTERLY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES IN FROM THE WEST.
WINDS BECOME NORTHWESTERLY AGAIN...AND LIKELY INCREASE TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AGAIN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY
WITH THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT. NO SHOWERS OR
STORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. LATE WEEK AND THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...WINDS WEAKEN AND VEER NE-E-SE. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      36  62  40  60  38 /  30  00  05  00  00
PENSACOLA   40  62  43  60  40 /  70  00  05  00  00
DESTIN      45  62  46  58  43 /  70  00  10  00  00
EVERGREEN   37  61  34  58  35 /  50  00  10  00  00
WAYNESBORO  32  64  36  58  34 /  20  05  05  00  00
CAMDEN      35  60  34  57  34 /  30  05  05  00  00
CRESTVIEW   38  61  37  61  36 /  70  00  10  00  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA
     ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...NORTHERN
     MOBILE BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...PERDIDO BAY...SOUTHERN
     MOBILE BAY...

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT
     20 NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMOB 250956
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
356 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM [TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT]...THE SURFACE COLD FRONT
IS NOW WELL EAST OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH COOLER AND DRIER
AIR ADVECTING INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN SLOWER TO FALL
DUE IN PART TO EXPANSIVE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS RESULTING FROM AN
AMPLIFIED TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY AND
ITS ASSOCIATED 140-160 KT UPPER JET THAT EXTENDS FROM THE ARKLAMISS...
NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. A SHORTWAVE OVER FAR WESTERN TEXAS
WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST TODAY AND HELP MOVE THE LARGER SCALE TROUGH
AXIS EASTWARD. THIS RESULTS IN THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG UPPER LEVEL
JET TO EXPAND FURTHER TO SOUTH...SERVING TO ENHANCE UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA. IN ADDITION...850-700 MB FRONTOGENESIS WILL INCREASE BY THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING ALONG AND EAST OF I-65. THIS ALL
RESULTS IN AN INCREASING CHANCE OF POST FRONTAL LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN...WITH THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD BEING ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN
ZONES. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A SHARP CUTOFF IN THE RAIN THE FURTHER
WEST YOU GO...THE DRIER THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE.
DETERMINING EXACTLY WHERE THAT CUTOFF SETS UP IS A BIT DIFFICULT WITH
THE NAM MOST AGGRESSIVE ON THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF MORE SIGNIFICANT
RAIN. WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES (40-70%) ALONG AND EAST OF
I-65. HOW EARLY IN THE DAY THE RAIN DEVELOPS IN THE EASTERN ZONES
WILL ALSO AFFECT THE HIGH TEMP FORECAST. GIVEN THE ABUNDANT CLOUD
COVER EXPECTED OVER THE ENTIRE AREA IN CONJUNCTION WITH RAIN
DEVELOPING IN THE EAST...WENT LOWER THAN MAV GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS BUT
NOT QUITE AS COLD AS THE MET. THIS YIELDS LOW 60S OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA...WITH FAR EASTERN AREAS STAYING IN THE UPPER 50S DUE TO THE
BETTER RAIN COVERAGE.

THE RAIN WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE AREA BY LATE EVENING...WITH JUST A
SMALL CHANCE LINGERING IN THE FAR EASTERN ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT. SKIES
WILL QUICKLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE SHORTWAVE PROGRESSES
THROUGH THE AREA. A CHILLY NIGHT EXPECTED WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO
THE LOW TO MID 30S WEST OF I-65 WITH UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S FURTHER
EAST. 34/JFB

EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO SHUNT
MOISTURE AND CLOUDS EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING
LEAVING NO MOISTURE FOR SECONDARY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...COMING
THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...TO GENERATE ANY PRECIPITATION.
WEDNESDAY`S HIGHS IN THE LOWER HALF OF THE 60S...WILL BE RUNNING A
FEW DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGY. OVERNIGHT LOWS FORECAST IN THE
MID/UPPER 30S INTERIOR TO MID 40S CLOSER TO THE BEACHES. /10

.LONG TERM [THANKSGIVING DAY THROUGH MONDAY]...THANKSGIVING DAY LOOKS
NICE...WEATHER WISE AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS EASTWARD OVER
THE NATION`S HEARTLAND. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE WELL BELOW SEASONAL
WITH HIGHS ONLY CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 50S OVER THE INTERIOR.
NUMBERS CLOSER TO 60 ALONG THE COAST.

HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA INTO THE WEEKEND...BECOMING
POSITIONED FROM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST.
THE HIGH REMAINS FIRM FROM THE WEST ATLANTIC INTO THE SOUTHEAST FOR
THE 1ST DAY OF DECEMBER. RAIN CHANCES ARE LOW. DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES
MODERATING TO CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGY HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. LOWS
ALSO TREND UPWARD WITH EACH NIGHT. /10

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE
PREDOMINATE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A MID TO
HIGH DECK CEILING WILL PERSIST TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH RAIN
DEVELOPING...PRIMARILY EAST OF I-65...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NW FL
PANHANDLE. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME MVFR VSBYS/CIGS IN PERIODS OF
HEAVIER RAIN EAST OF PENSACOLA THIS AFTN/EVE. SKIES CLEAR FROM WEST
TO EAST LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BREEZY N-NE WIND
AT 10-15 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS TODAY...DIMINISHING BY LATE TONIGHT.
34/JFB

&&

.MARINE...A MODERATE TO STRONG N-NE WIND WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
MARINE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ALONG A
COLD FRONT IN THE EASTERN GULF TODAY AND QUICKLY TRACKS NORTHEAST.
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH BY LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE LOW MOVES UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR REGION. WILL MAINTAIN THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR THE GULF WATERS UNTIL 6AM WEDNESDAY...WITH THE
BAYS/SOUNDS EXPIRING AT MIDNIGHT AS WINDS SHOULD BE A LITTLE QUICKER
TO DECREASE OVER THE PROTECTED WATERS. SEAS OF 5-7 FEET CAN BE
EXPECTED BEYOND 20 NM THROUGH TONIGHT. WHILE LIGHTER WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING OUT OF W-SW IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER FRONT WITH A MODERATE TO
STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE
OF ITS PASSAGE. THE OFFSHORE FLOW STAYS MODERATE TO STRONG THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT OVER THE GULF WATERS AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST TO
THE CAROLINAS. WINDS DIMINISH AND BECOME SOUTHERLY BY THE WEEKEND AS
THE HIGH MOVES INTO THE WEST ATLANTIC. 34/JFB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      62  37  62  38  60 /  20  30  05  00  00
PENSACOLA   61  41  62  43  61 /  50  70  05  00  00
DESTIN      59  45  60  47  60 /  60  70  10  00  00
EVERGREEN   61  35  61  36  59 /  20  50  05  00  00
WAYNESBORO  61  31  64  38  58 /  05  20  05  00  00
CAMDEN      61  34  60  36  58 /  10  30  05  00  00
CRESTVIEW   59  37  61  36  60 /  50  70  10  00  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA
     ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO
     PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL
     TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...NORTHERN
     MOBILE BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...PERDIDO BAY...SOUTHERN
     MOBILE BAY...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...

&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KMOB 250956
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
356 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM [TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT]...THE SURFACE COLD FRONT
IS NOW WELL EAST OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH COOLER AND DRIER
AIR ADVECTING INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN SLOWER TO FALL
DUE IN PART TO EXPANSIVE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS RESULTING FROM AN
AMPLIFIED TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY AND
ITS ASSOCIATED 140-160 KT UPPER JET THAT EXTENDS FROM THE ARKLAMISS...
NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. A SHORTWAVE OVER FAR WESTERN TEXAS
WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST TODAY AND HELP MOVE THE LARGER SCALE TROUGH
AXIS EASTWARD. THIS RESULTS IN THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG UPPER LEVEL
JET TO EXPAND FURTHER TO SOUTH...SERVING TO ENHANCE UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA. IN ADDITION...850-700 MB FRONTOGENESIS WILL INCREASE BY THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING ALONG AND EAST OF I-65. THIS ALL
RESULTS IN AN INCREASING CHANCE OF POST FRONTAL LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN...WITH THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD BEING ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN
ZONES. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A SHARP CUTOFF IN THE RAIN THE FURTHER
WEST YOU GO...THE DRIER THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE.
DETERMINING EXACTLY WHERE THAT CUTOFF SETS UP IS A BIT DIFFICULT WITH
THE NAM MOST AGGRESSIVE ON THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF MORE SIGNIFICANT
RAIN. WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES (40-70%) ALONG AND EAST OF
I-65. HOW EARLY IN THE DAY THE RAIN DEVELOPS IN THE EASTERN ZONES
WILL ALSO AFFECT THE HIGH TEMP FORECAST. GIVEN THE ABUNDANT CLOUD
COVER EXPECTED OVER THE ENTIRE AREA IN CONJUNCTION WITH RAIN
DEVELOPING IN THE EAST...WENT LOWER THAN MAV GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS BUT
NOT QUITE AS COLD AS THE MET. THIS YIELDS LOW 60S OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA...WITH FAR EASTERN AREAS STAYING IN THE UPPER 50S DUE TO THE
BETTER RAIN COVERAGE.

THE RAIN WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE AREA BY LATE EVENING...WITH JUST A
SMALL CHANCE LINGERING IN THE FAR EASTERN ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT. SKIES
WILL QUICKLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE SHORTWAVE PROGRESSES
THROUGH THE AREA. A CHILLY NIGHT EXPECTED WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO
THE LOW TO MID 30S WEST OF I-65 WITH UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S FURTHER
EAST. 34/JFB

EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO SHUNT
MOISTURE AND CLOUDS EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING
LEAVING NO MOISTURE FOR SECONDARY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...COMING
THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...TO GENERATE ANY PRECIPITATION.
WEDNESDAY`S HIGHS IN THE LOWER HALF OF THE 60S...WILL BE RUNNING A
FEW DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGY. OVERNIGHT LOWS FORECAST IN THE
MID/UPPER 30S INTERIOR TO MID 40S CLOSER TO THE BEACHES. /10

.LONG TERM [THANKSGIVING DAY THROUGH MONDAY]...THANKSGIVING DAY LOOKS
NICE...WEATHER WISE AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS EASTWARD OVER
THE NATION`S HEARTLAND. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE WELL BELOW SEASONAL
WITH HIGHS ONLY CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 50S OVER THE INTERIOR.
NUMBERS CLOSER TO 60 ALONG THE COAST.

HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA INTO THE WEEKEND...BECOMING
POSITIONED FROM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST.
THE HIGH REMAINS FIRM FROM THE WEST ATLANTIC INTO THE SOUTHEAST FOR
THE 1ST DAY OF DECEMBER. RAIN CHANCES ARE LOW. DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES
MODERATING TO CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGY HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. LOWS
ALSO TREND UPWARD WITH EACH NIGHT. /10

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE
PREDOMINATE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A MID TO
HIGH DECK CEILING WILL PERSIST TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH RAIN
DEVELOPING...PRIMARILY EAST OF I-65...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NW FL
PANHANDLE. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME MVFR VSBYS/CIGS IN PERIODS OF
HEAVIER RAIN EAST OF PENSACOLA THIS AFTN/EVE. SKIES CLEAR FROM WEST
TO EAST LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BREEZY N-NE WIND
AT 10-15 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS TODAY...DIMINISHING BY LATE TONIGHT.
34/JFB

&&

.MARINE...A MODERATE TO STRONG N-NE WIND WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
MARINE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ALONG A
COLD FRONT IN THE EASTERN GULF TODAY AND QUICKLY TRACKS NORTHEAST.
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH BY LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE LOW MOVES UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR REGION. WILL MAINTAIN THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR THE GULF WATERS UNTIL 6AM WEDNESDAY...WITH THE
BAYS/SOUNDS EXPIRING AT MIDNIGHT AS WINDS SHOULD BE A LITTLE QUICKER
TO DECREASE OVER THE PROTECTED WATERS. SEAS OF 5-7 FEET CAN BE
EXPECTED BEYOND 20 NM THROUGH TONIGHT. WHILE LIGHTER WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING OUT OF W-SW IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER FRONT WITH A MODERATE TO
STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE
OF ITS PASSAGE. THE OFFSHORE FLOW STAYS MODERATE TO STRONG THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT OVER THE GULF WATERS AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST TO
THE CAROLINAS. WINDS DIMINISH AND BECOME SOUTHERLY BY THE WEEKEND AS
THE HIGH MOVES INTO THE WEST ATLANTIC. 34/JFB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      62  37  62  38  60 /  20  30  05  00  00
PENSACOLA   61  41  62  43  61 /  50  70  05  00  00
DESTIN      59  45  60  47  60 /  60  70  10  00  00
EVERGREEN   61  35  61  36  59 /  20  50  05  00  00
WAYNESBORO  61  31  64  38  58 /  05  20  05  00  00
CAMDEN      61  34  60  36  58 /  10  30  05  00  00
CRESTVIEW   59  37  61  36  60 /  50  70  10  00  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA
     ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO
     PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL
     TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...NORTHERN
     MOBILE BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...PERDIDO BAY...SOUTHERN
     MOBILE BAY...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...

&&

$$











000
FXUS64 KMOB 250535 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1135 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.AVIATION...
06Z ISSUANCE...A VFR CEILING NEAR 10-12 KFT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH NORTHERLY WINDS 9-14 KNOTS. WILL HAVE A PROB30 GROUP FROM
21Z TUESDAY THROUGH 03Z WEDNESDAY OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
AREA WITH PREVAILING LIGHT RAIN BEGINNING AT 18Z FOR THE NORTHWEST
FLORIDA PANHANDLE AREA. /29

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 723 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014/

UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED MAINLY FOR SKY COVER TRENDS AS HIGH CLOUDINESS
IS OVER MOST OF THE AREA...ALONG WITH OTHER MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. /29

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...THEN GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUDS ONCE
AGAIN TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE
GULF WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION (ON TUESDAY NIGHT). THE COMBINATION OF
THESE TWO FEATURES WILL ALLOW MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RECENTLY
PASSED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO LIFT BACK TOWARD THE FCST AREA...
ESPECIALLY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT (UP UNTIL AROUND
3 AM OR SO). WITH THIS...LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BRIEFLY RETURN TO
THE FCST BEGINNING TUESDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES...THEN BECOMING MORE LIKELY OVER THE ENTIRE FCST AREA
DURING THE EVENING ON TUESDAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO TAPPER OFF WEST TO
EAST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT (AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVES
QUICKLY OFF TO THE EAST OF THE REGION). WE HAVE CAREFULLY REANALYZED
THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY LIGHT SNOW TO BE MIXED IN WITH THE LIGHT RAIN
ON TUESDAY NIGHT...AND BASED ON CURRENT DATA DO NOT FEEL THE
POTENTIAL TO BE HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE ANY LIGHT SNOW IN THE FCST.
AS THE UPPER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES...RAIN COVERAGE WILL INCREASE FROM
SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST...WITH TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM 0.01 INCHES OVER
NORTHWESTERN ZONES TO AROUND 0.50 INCHES FAR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES.
AS PREVIOUS SHIFT INDICATED...SOME MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A
SATURATED AIR MASS IN THE -10C TO -20C DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...WITH
THE FORMATION OF SNOW IN THAT ZONE ALOFT. HOWEVER...THE LOWEST
SEVERAL 2 KFT OF THE ATMOSPHERE APPEAR TO BE TWO WARM FOR ANY SNOW
TO FALL THROUGH AND MAKE IT TO THE SFC. ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE
FACT THAT WE DON`T EXPECT PCP TO BE HEAVY ENOUGH FOR ANY
SIGNIFICANT WETBULB COOLING AFFECTS. SO APPEARS TO BE SET UP FOR A
LIGHT...COLD RAIN DURING THE EVENING HOURS TUESDAY INTO THE VERY
EARLY MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY. THE PRECIPITATION WILL THEN MOVE EAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA AFTER AROUND 3 AM...AS THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY EXITS STAGE RIGHT AND A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS PUSHES
IN FROM THE WEST. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S OVER
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES TO THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 FAR SOUTHEASTERN
AND COASTAL AREAS. TUESDAY HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S MOST
LOCATIONS...MAYBE A FEW LOW 60S. TUESDAY NIGHT LOWS BRIEFLY IN THE
LOW 30S EXTREME NORTHWEST...BUT GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S AND LOWER
40S ELSEWHERE. 12/DS

(WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. OUR REASONING IS THAT THE JET STREAK AND UPPER
TROUGH WILL PULL AWAY...BRINGING STRONG SUBSIDENCE WHICH WILL
DOMINATE BEHIND THESE FEATURES. WIND WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTH TO
NORTHWEST BECOMING GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF 60 DEGREES.
LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S INLAND INLAND...AND
LOW TO MID 40S ALONG THE COAST.

77/BD

LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...WEST TO NORTHWEST UPPER WINDS
WILL DOMINATE THROUGH FRIDAY TRANSITIONING TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW OVER
THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. THIS WOULD HAPPEN DUE TO THE HIGH
AMPLITUDE  WAVE NUMBER 5 PATTERN LENGTHENING TO AROUND A WAVE NUMBER 3
OR 4. AN UPPER HIGH WILL BUILD OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH A
SURFACE HIGH RIDGING IN FROM THE WEST. BOTH FEATURES WILL BE
DOMINATING THE WEATHER OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM. DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM  UPPER 50S TO MID 60S
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY INCREASING TO UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. LOWS MID AND UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S INLAND
AREAS...AND MID 40S ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT WITH AN
INCREASING TREND IN LOWS MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST EACH NIGHT
REACHING UPPER 40S TO MID 50S THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

77/BD

MARINE...COLD FRONT MOVED EAST ACROSS THE MARINE AREA TODAY...WITH
A MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE. THE
OFFSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO THE NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN GULF AND MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARD
CENTRAL FLORIDA. WINDS WILL BE INCREASING TO NEAR 20 TO 25 KNOTS
(WITH OCNL HIGHER GUSTS) TONIGHT AND THEN PERSISTING INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH HIGH SEAS.  A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS
GRADUALLY BECOME MORE EASTERLY AND DIMINISH SLIGHTLY GOING INTO THE
LATER PART OF THE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND. 12/DS

AVIATION...
25/00Z TAF ISSUANCE...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY
WITH PRIMARILY HIGH CLOUDS...BUT BEGINNING TO LOWER SLIGHTLY LATE IN
THE DAY ON TUESDAY. SOME LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON
TUESDAY. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      43  57  39  61  42 /  05  20  40  05  05
PENSACOLA   48  56  41  61  45 /  20  40  60  05  05
DESTIN      52  56  44  61  49 /  30  50  70  05  05
EVERGREEN   44  59  35  59  38 /  10  30  60  05  05
WAYNESBORO  38  60  32  62  39 /  05  10  30  05  00
CAMDEN      41  60  35  59  38 /  05  20  40  05  05
CRESTVIEW   47  56  37  61  39 /  20  40  70  05  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA
     ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO
     PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL
     TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...NORTHERN
     MOBILE BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...PERDIDO BAY...SOUTHERN
     MOBILE BAY...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...

&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KMOB 250535 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1135 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.AVIATION...
06Z ISSUANCE...A VFR CEILING NEAR 10-12 KFT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH NORTHERLY WINDS 9-14 KNOTS. WILL HAVE A PROB30 GROUP FROM
21Z TUESDAY THROUGH 03Z WEDNESDAY OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
AREA WITH PREVAILING LIGHT RAIN BEGINNING AT 18Z FOR THE NORTHWEST
FLORIDA PANHANDLE AREA. /29

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 723 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014/

UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED MAINLY FOR SKY COVER TRENDS AS HIGH CLOUDINESS
IS OVER MOST OF THE AREA...ALONG WITH OTHER MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. /29

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...THEN GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUDS ONCE
AGAIN TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE
GULF WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION (ON TUESDAY NIGHT). THE COMBINATION OF
THESE TWO FEATURES WILL ALLOW MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RECENTLY
PASSED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO LIFT BACK TOWARD THE FCST AREA...
ESPECIALLY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT (UP UNTIL AROUND
3 AM OR SO). WITH THIS...LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BRIEFLY RETURN TO
THE FCST BEGINNING TUESDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES...THEN BECOMING MORE LIKELY OVER THE ENTIRE FCST AREA
DURING THE EVENING ON TUESDAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO TAPPER OFF WEST TO
EAST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT (AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVES
QUICKLY OFF TO THE EAST OF THE REGION). WE HAVE CAREFULLY REANALYZED
THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY LIGHT SNOW TO BE MIXED IN WITH THE LIGHT RAIN
ON TUESDAY NIGHT...AND BASED ON CURRENT DATA DO NOT FEEL THE
POTENTIAL TO BE HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE ANY LIGHT SNOW IN THE FCST.
AS THE UPPER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES...RAIN COVERAGE WILL INCREASE FROM
SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST...WITH TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM 0.01 INCHES OVER
NORTHWESTERN ZONES TO AROUND 0.50 INCHES FAR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES.
AS PREVIOUS SHIFT INDICATED...SOME MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A
SATURATED AIR MASS IN THE -10C TO -20C DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...WITH
THE FORMATION OF SNOW IN THAT ZONE ALOFT. HOWEVER...THE LOWEST
SEVERAL 2 KFT OF THE ATMOSPHERE APPEAR TO BE TWO WARM FOR ANY SNOW
TO FALL THROUGH AND MAKE IT TO THE SFC. ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE
FACT THAT WE DON`T EXPECT PCP TO BE HEAVY ENOUGH FOR ANY
SIGNIFICANT WETBULB COOLING AFFECTS. SO APPEARS TO BE SET UP FOR A
LIGHT...COLD RAIN DURING THE EVENING HOURS TUESDAY INTO THE VERY
EARLY MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY. THE PRECIPITATION WILL THEN MOVE EAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA AFTER AROUND 3 AM...AS THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY EXITS STAGE RIGHT AND A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS PUSHES
IN FROM THE WEST. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S OVER
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES TO THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 FAR SOUTHEASTERN
AND COASTAL AREAS. TUESDAY HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S MOST
LOCATIONS...MAYBE A FEW LOW 60S. TUESDAY NIGHT LOWS BRIEFLY IN THE
LOW 30S EXTREME NORTHWEST...BUT GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S AND LOWER
40S ELSEWHERE. 12/DS

(WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. OUR REASONING IS THAT THE JET STREAK AND UPPER
TROUGH WILL PULL AWAY...BRINGING STRONG SUBSIDENCE WHICH WILL
DOMINATE BEHIND THESE FEATURES. WIND WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTH TO
NORTHWEST BECOMING GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF 60 DEGREES.
LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S INLAND INLAND...AND
LOW TO MID 40S ALONG THE COAST.

77/BD

LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...WEST TO NORTHWEST UPPER WINDS
WILL DOMINATE THROUGH FRIDAY TRANSITIONING TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW OVER
THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. THIS WOULD HAPPEN DUE TO THE HIGH
AMPLITUDE  WAVE NUMBER 5 PATTERN LENGTHENING TO AROUND A WAVE NUMBER 3
OR 4. AN UPPER HIGH WILL BUILD OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH A
SURFACE HIGH RIDGING IN FROM THE WEST. BOTH FEATURES WILL BE
DOMINATING THE WEATHER OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM. DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM  UPPER 50S TO MID 60S
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY INCREASING TO UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. LOWS MID AND UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S INLAND
AREAS...AND MID 40S ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT WITH AN
INCREASING TREND IN LOWS MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST EACH NIGHT
REACHING UPPER 40S TO MID 50S THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

77/BD

MARINE...COLD FRONT MOVED EAST ACROSS THE MARINE AREA TODAY...WITH
A MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE. THE
OFFSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO THE NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN GULF AND MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARD
CENTRAL FLORIDA. WINDS WILL BE INCREASING TO NEAR 20 TO 25 KNOTS
(WITH OCNL HIGHER GUSTS) TONIGHT AND THEN PERSISTING INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH HIGH SEAS.  A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS
GRADUALLY BECOME MORE EASTERLY AND DIMINISH SLIGHTLY GOING INTO THE
LATER PART OF THE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND. 12/DS

AVIATION...
25/00Z TAF ISSUANCE...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY
WITH PRIMARILY HIGH CLOUDS...BUT BEGINNING TO LOWER SLIGHTLY LATE IN
THE DAY ON TUESDAY. SOME LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON
TUESDAY. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      43  57  39  61  42 /  05  20  40  05  05
PENSACOLA   48  56  41  61  45 /  20  40  60  05  05
DESTIN      52  56  44  61  49 /  30  50  70  05  05
EVERGREEN   44  59  35  59  38 /  10  30  60  05  05
WAYNESBORO  38  60  32  62  39 /  05  10  30  05  00
CAMDEN      41  60  35  59  38 /  05  20  40  05  05
CRESTVIEW   47  56  37  61  39 /  20  40  70  05  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA
     ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO
     PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL
     TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...NORTHERN
     MOBILE BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...PERDIDO BAY...SOUTHERN
     MOBILE BAY...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMOB 250123 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
723 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED MAINLY FOR SKY COVER TRENDS AS HIGH CLOUDINESS
IS OVER MOST OF THE AREA...ALONG WITH OTHER MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. /29

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...THEN GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUDS ONCE
AGAIN TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE
GULF WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION (ON TUESDAY NIGHT). THE COMBINATION OF
THESE TWO FEATURES WILL ALLOW MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RECENTLY
PASSED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO LIFT BACK TOWARD THE FCST AREA...
ESPECIALLY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT (UP UNTIL AROUND
3 AM OR SO). WITH THIS...LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BRIEFLY RETURN TO
THE FCST BEGINNING TUESDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES...THEN BECOMING MORE LIKELY OVER THE ENTIRE FCST AREA
DURING THE EVENING ON TUESDAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO TAPPER OFF WEST TO
EAST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT (AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVES
QUICKLY OFF TO THE EAST OF THE REGION). WE HAVE CAREFULLY REANALYZED
THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY LIGHT SNOW TO BE MIXED IN WITH THE LIGHT RAIN
ON TUESDAY NIGHT...AND BASED ON CURRENT DATA DO NOT FEEL THE
POTENTIAL TO BE HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE ANY LIGHT SNOW IN THE FCST.
AS THE UPPER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES...RAIN COVERAGE WILL INCREASE FROM
SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST...WITH TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM 0.01 INCHES OVER
NORTHWESTERN ZONES TO AROUND 0.50 INCHES FAR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES.
AS PREVIOUS SHIFT INDICATED...SOME MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A
SATURATED AIR MASS IN THE -10C TO -20C DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...WITH
THE FORMATION OF SNOW IN THAT ZONE ALOFT. HOWEVER...THE LOWEST
SEVERAL 2 KFT OF THE ATMOSPHERE APPEAR TO BE TWO WARM FOR ANY SNOW
TO FALL THROUGH AND MAKE IT TO THE SFC. ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE
FACT THAT WE DON`T EXPECT PCP TO BE HEAVY ENOUGH FOR ANY
SIGNIFICANT WETBULB COOLING AFFECTS. SO APPEARS TO BE SET UP FOR A
LIGHT...COLD RAIN DURING THE EVENING HOURS TUESDAY INTO THE VERY
EARLY MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY. THE PRECIPITATION WILL THEN MOVE EAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA AFTER AROUND 3 AM...AS THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY EXITS STAGE RIGHT AND A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS PUSHES
IN FROM THE WEST. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S OVER
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES TO THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 FAR SOUTHEASTERN
AND COASTAL AREAS. TUESDAY HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S MOST
LOCATIONS...MAYBE A FEW LOW 60S. TUESDAY NIGHT LOWS BRIEFLY IN THE
LOW 30S EXTREME NORTHWEST...BUT GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S AND LOWER
40S ELSEWHERE. 12/DS

(WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. OUR REASONING IS THAT THE JET STREAK AND UPPER
TROUGH WILL PULL AWAY...BRINGING STRONG SUBSIDENCE WHICH WILL
DOMINATE BEHIND THESE FEATURES. WIND WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTH TO
NORTHWEST BECOMING GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF 60 DEGREES.
LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S INLAND INLAND...AND
LOW TO MID 40S ALONG THE COAST.

77/BD

LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...WEST TO NORTHWEST UPPER WINDS
WILL DOMINATE THROUGH FRIDAY TRANSITIONING TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW OVER
THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. THIS WOULD HAPPEN DUE TO THE HIGH
AMPLITUDE  WAVE NUMBER 5 PATTERN LENGTHENING TO AROUND A WAVE NUMBER 3
OR 4. AN UPPER HIGH WILL BUILD OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH A
SURFACE HIGH RIDGING IN FROM THE WEST. BOTH FEATURES WILL BE
DOMINATING THE WEATHER OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM. DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM  UPPER 50S TO MID 60S
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY INCREASING TO UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. LOWS MID AND UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S INLAND
AREAS...AND MID 40S ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT WITH AN
INCREASING TREND IN LOWS MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST EACH NIGHT
REACHING UPPER 40S TO MID 50S THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

77/BD

MARINE...COLD FRONT MOVED EAST ACROSS THE MARINE AREA TODAY...WITH
A MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE. THE
OFFSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO THE NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN GULF AND MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARD
CENTRAL FLORIDA. WINDS WILL BE INCREASING TO NEAR 20 TO 25 KNOTS
(WITH OCNL HIGHER GUSTS) TONIGHT AND THEN PERSISTING INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH HIGH SEAS.  A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS
GRADUALLY BECOME MORE EASTERLY AND DIMINISH SLIGHTLY GOING INTO THE
LATER PART OF THE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND. 12/DS

AVIATION...
25/00Z TAF ISSUANCE...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY
WITH PRIMARILY HIGH CLOUDS...BUT BEGINNING TO LOWER SLIGHTLY LATE IN
THE DAY ON TUESDAY. SOME LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON
TUESDAY. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      43  57  39  61  42 /  05  20  40  05  05
PENSACOLA   48  56  41  61  45 /  20  40  60  05  05
DESTIN      52  56  44  61  49 /  30  50  70  05  05
EVERGREEN   44  59  35  59  38 /  10  30  60  05  05
WAYNESBORO  38  60  32  62  39 /  05  10  30  05  00
CAMDEN      41  60  35  59  38 /  05  20  40  05  05
CRESTVIEW   47  56  37  61  39 /  20  40  70  05  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA
     ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO
     PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL
     TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...NORTHERN
     MOBILE BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...PERDIDO BAY...SOUTHERN
     MOBILE BAY...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMOB 250123 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
723 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED MAINLY FOR SKY COVER TRENDS AS HIGH CLOUDINESS
IS OVER MOST OF THE AREA...ALONG WITH OTHER MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. /29

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...THEN GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUDS ONCE
AGAIN TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE
GULF WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION (ON TUESDAY NIGHT). THE COMBINATION OF
THESE TWO FEATURES WILL ALLOW MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RECENTLY
PASSED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO LIFT BACK TOWARD THE FCST AREA...
ESPECIALLY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT (UP UNTIL AROUND
3 AM OR SO). WITH THIS...LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BRIEFLY RETURN TO
THE FCST BEGINNING TUESDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES...THEN BECOMING MORE LIKELY OVER THE ENTIRE FCST AREA
DURING THE EVENING ON TUESDAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO TAPPER OFF WEST TO
EAST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT (AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVES
QUICKLY OFF TO THE EAST OF THE REGION). WE HAVE CAREFULLY REANALYZED
THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY LIGHT SNOW TO BE MIXED IN WITH THE LIGHT RAIN
ON TUESDAY NIGHT...AND BASED ON CURRENT DATA DO NOT FEEL THE
POTENTIAL TO BE HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE ANY LIGHT SNOW IN THE FCST.
AS THE UPPER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES...RAIN COVERAGE WILL INCREASE FROM
SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST...WITH TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM 0.01 INCHES OVER
NORTHWESTERN ZONES TO AROUND 0.50 INCHES FAR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES.
AS PREVIOUS SHIFT INDICATED...SOME MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A
SATURATED AIR MASS IN THE -10C TO -20C DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...WITH
THE FORMATION OF SNOW IN THAT ZONE ALOFT. HOWEVER...THE LOWEST
SEVERAL 2 KFT OF THE ATMOSPHERE APPEAR TO BE TWO WARM FOR ANY SNOW
TO FALL THROUGH AND MAKE IT TO THE SFC. ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE
FACT THAT WE DON`T EXPECT PCP TO BE HEAVY ENOUGH FOR ANY
SIGNIFICANT WETBULB COOLING AFFECTS. SO APPEARS TO BE SET UP FOR A
LIGHT...COLD RAIN DURING THE EVENING HOURS TUESDAY INTO THE VERY
EARLY MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY. THE PRECIPITATION WILL THEN MOVE EAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA AFTER AROUND 3 AM...AS THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY EXITS STAGE RIGHT AND A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS PUSHES
IN FROM THE WEST. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S OVER
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES TO THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 FAR SOUTHEASTERN
AND COASTAL AREAS. TUESDAY HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S MOST
LOCATIONS...MAYBE A FEW LOW 60S. TUESDAY NIGHT LOWS BRIEFLY IN THE
LOW 30S EXTREME NORTHWEST...BUT GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S AND LOWER
40S ELSEWHERE. 12/DS

(WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. OUR REASONING IS THAT THE JET STREAK AND UPPER
TROUGH WILL PULL AWAY...BRINGING STRONG SUBSIDENCE WHICH WILL
DOMINATE BEHIND THESE FEATURES. WIND WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTH TO
NORTHWEST BECOMING GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF 60 DEGREES.
LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S INLAND INLAND...AND
LOW TO MID 40S ALONG THE COAST.

77/BD

LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...WEST TO NORTHWEST UPPER WINDS
WILL DOMINATE THROUGH FRIDAY TRANSITIONING TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW OVER
THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. THIS WOULD HAPPEN DUE TO THE HIGH
AMPLITUDE  WAVE NUMBER 5 PATTERN LENGTHENING TO AROUND A WAVE NUMBER 3
OR 4. AN UPPER HIGH WILL BUILD OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH A
SURFACE HIGH RIDGING IN FROM THE WEST. BOTH FEATURES WILL BE
DOMINATING THE WEATHER OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM. DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM  UPPER 50S TO MID 60S
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY INCREASING TO UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. LOWS MID AND UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S INLAND
AREAS...AND MID 40S ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT WITH AN
INCREASING TREND IN LOWS MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST EACH NIGHT
REACHING UPPER 40S TO MID 50S THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

77/BD

MARINE...COLD FRONT MOVED EAST ACROSS THE MARINE AREA TODAY...WITH
A MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE. THE
OFFSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO THE NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN GULF AND MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARD
CENTRAL FLORIDA. WINDS WILL BE INCREASING TO NEAR 20 TO 25 KNOTS
(WITH OCNL HIGHER GUSTS) TONIGHT AND THEN PERSISTING INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH HIGH SEAS.  A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS
GRADUALLY BECOME MORE EASTERLY AND DIMINISH SLIGHTLY GOING INTO THE
LATER PART OF THE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND. 12/DS

AVIATION...
25/00Z TAF ISSUANCE...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY
WITH PRIMARILY HIGH CLOUDS...BUT BEGINNING TO LOWER SLIGHTLY LATE IN
THE DAY ON TUESDAY. SOME LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON
TUESDAY. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      43  57  39  61  42 /  05  20  40  05  05
PENSACOLA   48  56  41  61  45 /  20  40  60  05  05
DESTIN      52  56  44  61  49 /  30  50  70  05  05
EVERGREEN   44  59  35  59  38 /  10  30  60  05  05
WAYNESBORO  38  60  32  62  39 /  05  10  30  05  00
CAMDEN      41  60  35  59  38 /  05  20  40  05  05
CRESTVIEW   47  56  37  61  39 /  20  40  70  05  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA
     ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO
     PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL
     TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...NORTHERN
     MOBILE BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...PERDIDO BAY...SOUTHERN
     MOBILE BAY...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...

&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KMOB 242211
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
411 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...THEN GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUDS ONCE
AGAIN TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE
GULF WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION (ON TUESDAY NIGHT). THE COMBINATION OF
THESE TWO FEATURES WILL ALLOW MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RECENTLY
PASSED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO LIFT BACK TOWARD THE FCST AREA...
ESPECIALLY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT (UP UNTIL AROUND
3 AM OR SO). WITH THIS...LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BRIEFLY RETURN TO
THE FCST BEGINNING TUESDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES...THEN BECOMING MORE LIKELY OVER THE ENTIRE FCST AREA
DURING THE EVENING ON TUESDAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO TAPPER OFF WEST TO
EAST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT (AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVES
QUICKLY OFF TO THE EAST OF THE REGION). WE HAVE CAREFULLY REANALYZED
THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY LIGHT SNOW TO BE MIXED IN WITH THE LIGHT RAIN
ON TUESDAY NIGHT...AND BASED ON CURRENT DATA DO NOT FEEL THE
POTENTIAL TO BE HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE ANY LIGHT SNOW IN THE FCST.
AS THE UPPER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES...RAIN COVERAGE WILL INCREASE FROM
SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST...WITH TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM 0.01 INCHES OVER
NORTHWESTERN ZONES TO AROUND 0.50 INCHES FAR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES.
AS PREVIOUS SHIFT INDICATED...SOME MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A
SATURATED AIR MASS IN THE -10C TO -20C DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...WITH
THE FORMATION OF SNOW IN THAT ZONE ALOFT. HOWEVER...THE LOWEST
SEVERAL 2 KFT OF THE ATMOSPHERE APPEAR TO BE TWO WARM FOR ANY SNOW
TO FALL THROUGH AND MAKE IT TO THE SFC. ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE
FACT THAT WE DON`T EXPECT PCP TO BE HEAVY ENOUGH FOR ANY
SIGNIFICANT WETBULB COOLING AFFECTS. SO APPEARS TO BE SET UP FOR A
LIGHT...COLD RAIN DURING THE EVENING HOURS TUESDAY INTO THE VERY
EARLY MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY. THE PRECIPITATION WILL THEN MOVE EAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA AFTER AROUND 3 AM...AS THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY EXITS STAGE RIGHT AND A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS PUSHES
IN FROM THE WEST. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S OVER
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES TO THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 FAR SOUTHEASTERN
AND COASTAL AREAS. TUESDAY HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S MOST
LOCATIONS...MAYBE A FEW LOW 60S. TUESDAY NIGHT LOWS BRIEFLY IN THE
LOW 30S EXTREME NORTHWEST...BUT GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S AND LOWER
40S ELSEWHERE. 12/DS

(WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. OUR REASONING IS THAT THE JET STREAK AND UPPER
TROUGH WILL PULL AWAY...BRINGING STRONG SUBSIDENCE WHICH WILL
DOMINATE BEHIND THESE FEATURES. WIND WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTH TO
NORTHWEST BECOMING GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF 60 DEGREES.
LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S INLAND INLAND...AND
LOW TO MID 40S ALONG THE COAST.

77/BD

.LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...WEST TO NORTHWEST UPPER WINDS
WILL DOMINATE THROUGH FRIDAY TRANSITIONING TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW OVER
THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. THIS WOULD HAPPEN DUE TO THE HIGH
AMPLITUDE  WAVENUMBER 5 PATTERN LENGTHENING TO AROUND A WAVENUMBER 3
OR 4. AN UPPER HIGH WILL BUILD OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH A
SURFACE HIGH RIDGING IN FROM THE WEST. BOTH FEATURES WILL BE
DOMINATING THE WEATHER OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM. DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM  UPPER 50S TO MID 60S
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY INCREASING TO UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. LOWS MID AND UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S INLAND
AREAS...AND MID 40S ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT WITH AN
INCREASING TREND IN LOWS MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST EACH NIGHT
REACHING UPPER 40S TO MID 50S THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

77/BD

&&

.MARINE...COLD FRONT MOVED EAST ACROSS THE MARINE AREA TODAY...WITH
A MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE. THE
OFFSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO THE NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN GULF AND MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARD
CENTRAL FLORIDA. WINDS WILL BE INCREASING TO NEAR 20 TO 25 KNOTS
(WITH OCNL HIGHER GUSTS) TONIGHT AND THEN PERSISTING INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH HIGH SEAS.  A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS
GRADUALLY BECOME MORE EASTERLY AND DIMINISH SLIGHTLY GOING INTO THE
LATER PART OF THE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND. 12/DS

&&

.AVIATION...
25/00Z TAF ISSUANCE...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY
WITH PRIMARILY HIGH CLOUDS...BUT BEGINNING TO LOWER SLIGHTLY LATE IN
THE DAY ON TUESDAY. SOME LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON
TUESDAY. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      43  57  39  61  42 /  05  20  40  05  05
PENSACOLA   48  56  41  61  45 /  20  40  60  05  05
DESTIN      52  56  44  61  49 /  20  50  70  05  05
EVERGREEN   44  59  35  59  38 /  05  30  60  05  05
WAYNESBORO  38  60  32  62  39 /  00  10  30  05  00
CAMDEN      41  60  35  59  38 /  05  20  40  05  05
CRESTVIEW   47  56  37  61  39 /  20  40  70  05  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA
     ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM MONDAY TO 6 AM WEDNESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM...MISSISSIPPI
     SOUND...NORTHERN MOBILE BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...
     PERDIDO BAY...SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO
     PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO
     PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...

&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KMOB 242211
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
411 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...THEN GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUDS ONCE
AGAIN TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE
GULF WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION (ON TUESDAY NIGHT). THE COMBINATION OF
THESE TWO FEATURES WILL ALLOW MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RECENTLY
PASSED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO LIFT BACK TOWARD THE FCST AREA...
ESPECIALLY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT (UP UNTIL AROUND
3 AM OR SO). WITH THIS...LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BRIEFLY RETURN TO
THE FCST BEGINNING TUESDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES...THEN BECOMING MORE LIKELY OVER THE ENTIRE FCST AREA
DURING THE EVENING ON TUESDAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO TAPPER OFF WEST TO
EAST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT (AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVES
QUICKLY OFF TO THE EAST OF THE REGION). WE HAVE CAREFULLY REANALYZED
THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY LIGHT SNOW TO BE MIXED IN WITH THE LIGHT RAIN
ON TUESDAY NIGHT...AND BASED ON CURRENT DATA DO NOT FEEL THE
POTENTIAL TO BE HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE ANY LIGHT SNOW IN THE FCST.
AS THE UPPER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES...RAIN COVERAGE WILL INCREASE FROM
SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST...WITH TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM 0.01 INCHES OVER
NORTHWESTERN ZONES TO AROUND 0.50 INCHES FAR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES.
AS PREVIOUS SHIFT INDICATED...SOME MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A
SATURATED AIR MASS IN THE -10C TO -20C DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...WITH
THE FORMATION OF SNOW IN THAT ZONE ALOFT. HOWEVER...THE LOWEST
SEVERAL 2 KFT OF THE ATMOSPHERE APPEAR TO BE TWO WARM FOR ANY SNOW
TO FALL THROUGH AND MAKE IT TO THE SFC. ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE
FACT THAT WE DON`T EXPECT PCP TO BE HEAVY ENOUGH FOR ANY
SIGNIFICANT WETBULB COOLING AFFECTS. SO APPEARS TO BE SET UP FOR A
LIGHT...COLD RAIN DURING THE EVENING HOURS TUESDAY INTO THE VERY
EARLY MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY. THE PRECIPITATION WILL THEN MOVE EAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA AFTER AROUND 3 AM...AS THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY EXITS STAGE RIGHT AND A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS PUSHES
IN FROM THE WEST. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S OVER
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES TO THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 FAR SOUTHEASTERN
AND COASTAL AREAS. TUESDAY HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S MOST
LOCATIONS...MAYBE A FEW LOW 60S. TUESDAY NIGHT LOWS BRIEFLY IN THE
LOW 30S EXTREME NORTHWEST...BUT GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S AND LOWER
40S ELSEWHERE. 12/DS

(WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. OUR REASONING IS THAT THE JET STREAK AND UPPER
TROUGH WILL PULL AWAY...BRINGING STRONG SUBSIDENCE WHICH WILL
DOMINATE BEHIND THESE FEATURES. WIND WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTH TO
NORTHWEST BECOMING GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF 60 DEGREES.
LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S INLAND INLAND...AND
LOW TO MID 40S ALONG THE COAST.

77/BD

.LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...WEST TO NORTHWEST UPPER WINDS
WILL DOMINATE THROUGH FRIDAY TRANSITIONING TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW OVER
THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. THIS WOULD HAPPEN DUE TO THE HIGH
AMPLITUDE  WAVENUMBER 5 PATTERN LENGTHENING TO AROUND A WAVENUMBER 3
OR 4. AN UPPER HIGH WILL BUILD OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH A
SURFACE HIGH RIDGING IN FROM THE WEST. BOTH FEATURES WILL BE
DOMINATING THE WEATHER OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM. DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM  UPPER 50S TO MID 60S
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY INCREASING TO UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. LOWS MID AND UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S INLAND
AREAS...AND MID 40S ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT WITH AN
INCREASING TREND IN LOWS MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST EACH NIGHT
REACHING UPPER 40S TO MID 50S THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

77/BD

&&

.MARINE...COLD FRONT MOVED EAST ACROSS THE MARINE AREA TODAY...WITH
A MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE. THE
OFFSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO THE NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN GULF AND MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARD
CENTRAL FLORIDA. WINDS WILL BE INCREASING TO NEAR 20 TO 25 KNOTS
(WITH OCNL HIGHER GUSTS) TONIGHT AND THEN PERSISTING INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH HIGH SEAS.  A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS
GRADUALLY BECOME MORE EASTERLY AND DIMINISH SLIGHTLY GOING INTO THE
LATER PART OF THE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND. 12/DS

&&

.AVIATION...
25/00Z TAF ISSUANCE...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY
WITH PRIMARILY HIGH CLOUDS...BUT BEGINNING TO LOWER SLIGHTLY LATE IN
THE DAY ON TUESDAY. SOME LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON
TUESDAY. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      43  57  39  61  42 /  05  20  40  05  05
PENSACOLA   48  56  41  61  45 /  20  40  60  05  05
DESTIN      52  56  44  61  49 /  20  50  70  05  05
EVERGREEN   44  59  35  59  38 /  05  30  60  05  05
WAYNESBORO  38  60  32  62  39 /  00  10  30  05  00
CAMDEN      41  60  35  59  38 /  05  20  40  05  05
CRESTVIEW   47  56  37  61  39 /  20  40  70  05  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA
     ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM MONDAY TO 6 AM WEDNESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM...MISSISSIPPI
     SOUND...NORTHERN MOBILE BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...
     PERDIDO BAY...SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO
     PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO
     PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...

&&

$$











000
FXUS64 KMOB 241310 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
710 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS
WAS POSITIONED ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE NATION THIS MORNING WITH
HIGH LEVEL WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW PERSISTING OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS DRAPED FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHWEST ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS.
LINGERING MOISTURE AND SUBTLE MID LEVEL IMPULSES TRACKING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST IN THE FLOW ALOFT HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR A NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST BAND OF SHOWERS FROM THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE...
DOWN ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING AT THE START OF THE
SHIFT. A GRADUAL EASTWARD SHIFT IN THIS RAINFALL AXIS HAS BEEN
OBSERVED IN RADAR TRENDS. WILL MAINTAIN A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS
OVER SAME AREAS THIS MORNING AS OVERALL UPPER FLOW CHANGES LITTLE.
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SWING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST TODAY...CAUSING REMAINING MOISTURE AND MORNING CLOUDINESS TO
MOVE OUT OF THE AREA THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY. ALTHOUGH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS...NOT LOOKING FOR THE COOLER AIR TO ARRIVE
UNTIL TONIGHT WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE LOWER/MID 70S.
FRONT MOVES WELL EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING AND NOSING EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES. COOL AIR
ADVECTION PROCESSES SET UP WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS BACK DOWN INTO THE
LOWER/MID 40S INTERIOR TO CLOSER TO 50 AT THE BEACHES. UPPER LEVEL
TROF OVER THE NATION`S MID SECTION AMPLIFIES STRONGLY LATE TONIGHT
WITH A STRONG H30 MILLIBAR JET STREAK (130 TO 160 KNOTS) ON ITS EAST
SIDE SETTING UP FROM THE MID SOUTH TO ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
ENHANCED JET STREAK DYNAMICS IN THE FAVORED RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF
THE HIGH LEVEL JET BEGINS PULLING MOISTURE NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND CAUSING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER
OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAY OCCUR OVER THE
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE LATE TONIGHT.

THE COMBINATION OF MODERATE TO STRONG WIND AT THE BEACHES...6 TO 8
PERIOD SWELL AND SPRING TIDAL CYCLES...FORECASTERS WILL MAINTAIN A
HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS TO POTENTIALLY DEADLY RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE
BEACH AREAS THROUGH TUESDAY. /10

[TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY]...FORECAST GETS INTERESTING TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH A POSSIBLE MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. UNTIL THEN...THE 300 MB JET
STREAK OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION INCREASES TO 160 TO 190 KNOTS ON
TUESDAY...WITH A SOUTHWARD EXTENSION OF THE JET (140 TO 160 KNOTS)
AS FAR SOUTH AS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. AS A RESULT...THE UPPER TROUGH
BECOMES HIGHLY AMPLIFIED OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION...AND THEN
ADVANCES EASTWARD WITH THE AXIS REACHING THE ENTIRE LENGTH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. COLD SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST REGION ON TUESDAY BEHIND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT
EXTENDING FROM JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. A SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE COLD FRONT OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
DAYBREAK TUESDAY WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OVER THE EASTERN GULF TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...AND THEN ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TUESDAY EVENING.

RAIN COVERAGE WILL INCREASE FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST AS THE
FORECAST AREA RESIDES IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER
LEVEL JET. INCREASING MOISTURE AND STRONG FORCING IN THE MID/UPPER
LEVELS WILL RESULT IN THE INCREASE OF RAIN...WITH A SHARP GRADIENT
SETTING UP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY EVENING. IN FACT...RAIN
CHANCES WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 20 PERCENT ACROSS OUR EXTREME NORTHWEST
ZONES (NEAR WAYNESBORO MS) TO NEAR 80 PERCENT ACROSS OUR EXTREME
SOUTHEAST ZONES (DESTIN FL). TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON TUESDAY WILL
RANGE FROM A TRACE NEAR WAYNESBORO TO NEAR ONE INCH NEAR DESTIN.

MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING A SATURATED AIR MASS IN SUB FREEZING
TEMPERATURES ABOVE 5000 FEET TUESDAY EVENING...WITH A LAYER OF DRIER
AIR BELOW. ADEQUATE SATURATION IN THE -10C TO -20C LAYER FAVORS
DENDRITIC GROWTH OF ICE CRYSTALS...WITH SNOW FORMING AS THE ICE
CRYSTALS FALL. AS SNOW FALLS BELOW THE 5000 FOOT LEVEL EARLY TUESDAY
EVENING...IT WILL FIRST RESULT IN COMPLETE MELTING BEFORE REACHING
THE SURFACE. HOWEVER...DYNAMIC COOLING IN THE DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR
MASS WITH WET BULB TEMPERATURES AS LOW AS -3C...AND THE RESULT OF
THE FROZEN PRECIPITATION DRAGGING COLD AIR ALOFT TOWARD THE
SURFACE...SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME OF THE SNOW FLAKES TO
SURVIVE THE JOURNEY TO EARTH.

THE BEST CHANCE OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL OCCUR ACROSS OUR INLAND
MISSISSIPPI...INLAND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA
ZONES FROM LATE TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH 3 AM. THE PRECIPITATION WILL
THEN MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 3 AM AS A DRY AIRMASS
PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST. FOR NOW WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY
ACCUMULATION OF SNOW.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE
OCCURS IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM 57 TO 62 DEGREES. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM 32 TO 37 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...AND FROM 37 TO 42 DEGREES
ALONG THE COAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM 58
TO 63 DEGREES. /22

.LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...A WEST-NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW
PATTERN THROUGH FRIDAY WILL TRANSITION TO MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW OVER
THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY AS AN UPPER HIGH BUILDS OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL SETTLE
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE LONG TERM. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 60 TO 65 DEGREES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
CLIMBING TO BETWEEN 65 AND 70 DEGREES OVER THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY.
LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 37 TO 41
DEGREES INLAND AREAS...AND FROM 41 TO 47 DEGREES ALONG THE COAST. A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND IN LOW TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR EACH NIGHT
THROUGH THE EXTENDED...AND BY SUNDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM 48 TO 53 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...AND FROM 53 TO 58 DEGREES ALONG
THE COAST. /22

&&

.AVIATION...
24.12Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF CYCLE
TO BEGIN THE FORECAST...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE LINGERING CLOUDS WITH LOW BASES (IFR-MVFR) ALONG WITH
PATCHY FOG. COULD BE A FEW MORNING -SHRA MAINLY EAST OF PNS. LIGHT
SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS MORNING. COLD FRONT SWINGS EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY BRINGING A WIND SHIFT (W-NW 8 TO 13 KNOTS)
DURING THE MID/LATE MORNING MOB/BFM...TO EARLY AFTERNOON AROUND PNS
AND POINTS EAST. CLOUD BASES ARE FORECAST TO LIFT TO MVFR/VFR
CATEGORIES AND POSSIBLY BEGIN TO DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. /10

&&

.MARINE...LATEST DATA COLLECTION PLATFORMS INDICATE PREVAILING
SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA AND HAVE
REMAINED SO FOR THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. SEAS HAVE ALSO MOVED BELOW
CRITERIA...SO WILL END THE CURRENT ADVISORY OVER THE OPEN GULF
MARINE ZONES AND REPLACE WITH SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES
THIS MORNING FOR POTENTIAL OF A FEW HIGHER GUSTS. COLD FRONT MOVES
EAST AND BRINGS A WIND SHIFT ACROSS THE MARINE AREA TODAY...FOLLOWED
BY A BUILDING RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. A MODERATE TO STRONG
OFFSHORE FLOW REDEVELOPS TONIGHT AND CONTINUES TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE HIGH INTERACTS WITH A DEVELOPING WAVE OF
FRONTAL SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF...THAT TRACKS
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA. LATEST GRIDDED
WIND/GUST GRIDS SUPPORT THE ISSUANCE OF A NEW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. SEAS
REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE NEAR TERM. /10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      73  44  61  37  61 /  05  05  30  40  00
PENSACOLA   76  47  59  41  61 /  05  10  40  70  05
DESTIN      74  51  57  43  61 /  20  20  50  80  10
EVERGREEN   74  42  60  34  59 /  05  05  30  60  00
WAYNESBORO  67  40  59  31  62 /  05  00  05  20  00
CAMDEN      71  41  59  34  59 /  05  05  20  40  00
CRESTVIEW   77  47  58  37  61 /  10  10  50  70  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA
     ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM MONDAY TO 6 AM WEDNESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM...MISSISSIPPI
     SOUND...NORTHERN MOBILE BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...
     PERDIDO BAY...SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO
     PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO
     PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMOB 241310 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
710 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS
WAS POSITIONED ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE NATION THIS MORNING WITH
HIGH LEVEL WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW PERSISTING OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS DRAPED FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHWEST ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS.
LINGERING MOISTURE AND SUBTLE MID LEVEL IMPULSES TRACKING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST IN THE FLOW ALOFT HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR A NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST BAND OF SHOWERS FROM THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE...
DOWN ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING AT THE START OF THE
SHIFT. A GRADUAL EASTWARD SHIFT IN THIS RAINFALL AXIS HAS BEEN
OBSERVED IN RADAR TRENDS. WILL MAINTAIN A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS
OVER SAME AREAS THIS MORNING AS OVERALL UPPER FLOW CHANGES LITTLE.
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SWING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST TODAY...CAUSING REMAINING MOISTURE AND MORNING CLOUDINESS TO
MOVE OUT OF THE AREA THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY. ALTHOUGH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS...NOT LOOKING FOR THE COOLER AIR TO ARRIVE
UNTIL TONIGHT WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE LOWER/MID 70S.
FRONT MOVES WELL EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING AND NOSING EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES. COOL AIR
ADVECTION PROCESSES SET UP WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS BACK DOWN INTO THE
LOWER/MID 40S INTERIOR TO CLOSER TO 50 AT THE BEACHES. UPPER LEVEL
TROF OVER THE NATION`S MID SECTION AMPLIFIES STRONGLY LATE TONIGHT
WITH A STRONG H30 MILLIBAR JET STREAK (130 TO 160 KNOTS) ON ITS EAST
SIDE SETTING UP FROM THE MID SOUTH TO ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
ENHANCED JET STREAK DYNAMICS IN THE FAVORED RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF
THE HIGH LEVEL JET BEGINS PULLING MOISTURE NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND CAUSING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER
OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAY OCCUR OVER THE
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE LATE TONIGHT.

THE COMBINATION OF MODERATE TO STRONG WIND AT THE BEACHES...6 TO 8
PERIOD SWELL AND SPRING TIDAL CYCLES...FORECASTERS WILL MAINTAIN A
HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS TO POTENTIALLY DEADLY RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE
BEACH AREAS THROUGH TUESDAY. /10

[TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY]...FORECAST GETS INTERESTING TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH A POSSIBLE MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. UNTIL THEN...THE 300 MB JET
STREAK OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION INCREASES TO 160 TO 190 KNOTS ON
TUESDAY...WITH A SOUTHWARD EXTENSION OF THE JET (140 TO 160 KNOTS)
AS FAR SOUTH AS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. AS A RESULT...THE UPPER TROUGH
BECOMES HIGHLY AMPLIFIED OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION...AND THEN
ADVANCES EASTWARD WITH THE AXIS REACHING THE ENTIRE LENGTH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. COLD SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST REGION ON TUESDAY BEHIND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT
EXTENDING FROM JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. A SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE COLD FRONT OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
DAYBREAK TUESDAY WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OVER THE EASTERN GULF TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...AND THEN ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TUESDAY EVENING.

RAIN COVERAGE WILL INCREASE FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST AS THE
FORECAST AREA RESIDES IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER
LEVEL JET. INCREASING MOISTURE AND STRONG FORCING IN THE MID/UPPER
LEVELS WILL RESULT IN THE INCREASE OF RAIN...WITH A SHARP GRADIENT
SETTING UP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY EVENING. IN FACT...RAIN
CHANCES WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 20 PERCENT ACROSS OUR EXTREME NORTHWEST
ZONES (NEAR WAYNESBORO MS) TO NEAR 80 PERCENT ACROSS OUR EXTREME
SOUTHEAST ZONES (DESTIN FL). TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON TUESDAY WILL
RANGE FROM A TRACE NEAR WAYNESBORO TO NEAR ONE INCH NEAR DESTIN.

MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING A SATURATED AIR MASS IN SUB FREEZING
TEMPERATURES ABOVE 5000 FEET TUESDAY EVENING...WITH A LAYER OF DRIER
AIR BELOW. ADEQUATE SATURATION IN THE -10C TO -20C LAYER FAVORS
DENDRITIC GROWTH OF ICE CRYSTALS...WITH SNOW FORMING AS THE ICE
CRYSTALS FALL. AS SNOW FALLS BELOW THE 5000 FOOT LEVEL EARLY TUESDAY
EVENING...IT WILL FIRST RESULT IN COMPLETE MELTING BEFORE REACHING
THE SURFACE. HOWEVER...DYNAMIC COOLING IN THE DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR
MASS WITH WET BULB TEMPERATURES AS LOW AS -3C...AND THE RESULT OF
THE FROZEN PRECIPITATION DRAGGING COLD AIR ALOFT TOWARD THE
SURFACE...SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME OF THE SNOW FLAKES TO
SURVIVE THE JOURNEY TO EARTH.

THE BEST CHANCE OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL OCCUR ACROSS OUR INLAND
MISSISSIPPI...INLAND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA
ZONES FROM LATE TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH 3 AM. THE PRECIPITATION WILL
THEN MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 3 AM AS A DRY AIRMASS
PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST. FOR NOW WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY
ACCUMULATION OF SNOW.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE
OCCURS IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM 57 TO 62 DEGREES. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM 32 TO 37 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...AND FROM 37 TO 42 DEGREES
ALONG THE COAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM 58
TO 63 DEGREES. /22

.LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...A WEST-NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW
PATTERN THROUGH FRIDAY WILL TRANSITION TO MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW OVER
THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY AS AN UPPER HIGH BUILDS OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL SETTLE
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE LONG TERM. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 60 TO 65 DEGREES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
CLIMBING TO BETWEEN 65 AND 70 DEGREES OVER THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY.
LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 37 TO 41
DEGREES INLAND AREAS...AND FROM 41 TO 47 DEGREES ALONG THE COAST. A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND IN LOW TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR EACH NIGHT
THROUGH THE EXTENDED...AND BY SUNDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM 48 TO 53 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...AND FROM 53 TO 58 DEGREES ALONG
THE COAST. /22

&&

.AVIATION...
24.12Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF CYCLE
TO BEGIN THE FORECAST...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE LINGERING CLOUDS WITH LOW BASES (IFR-MVFR) ALONG WITH
PATCHY FOG. COULD BE A FEW MORNING -SHRA MAINLY EAST OF PNS. LIGHT
SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS MORNING. COLD FRONT SWINGS EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY BRINGING A WIND SHIFT (W-NW 8 TO 13 KNOTS)
DURING THE MID/LATE MORNING MOB/BFM...TO EARLY AFTERNOON AROUND PNS
AND POINTS EAST. CLOUD BASES ARE FORECAST TO LIFT TO MVFR/VFR
CATEGORIES AND POSSIBLY BEGIN TO DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. /10

&&

.MARINE...LATEST DATA COLLECTION PLATFORMS INDICATE PREVAILING
SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA AND HAVE
REMAINED SO FOR THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. SEAS HAVE ALSO MOVED BELOW
CRITERIA...SO WILL END THE CURRENT ADVISORY OVER THE OPEN GULF
MARINE ZONES AND REPLACE WITH SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES
THIS MORNING FOR POTENTIAL OF A FEW HIGHER GUSTS. COLD FRONT MOVES
EAST AND BRINGS A WIND SHIFT ACROSS THE MARINE AREA TODAY...FOLLOWED
BY A BUILDING RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. A MODERATE TO STRONG
OFFSHORE FLOW REDEVELOPS TONIGHT AND CONTINUES TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE HIGH INTERACTS WITH A DEVELOPING WAVE OF
FRONTAL SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF...THAT TRACKS
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA. LATEST GRIDDED
WIND/GUST GRIDS SUPPORT THE ISSUANCE OF A NEW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. SEAS
REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE NEAR TERM. /10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      73  44  61  37  61 /  05  05  30  40  00
PENSACOLA   76  47  59  41  61 /  05  10  40  70  05
DESTIN      74  51  57  43  61 /  20  20  50  80  10
EVERGREEN   74  42  60  34  59 /  05  05  30  60  00
WAYNESBORO  67  40  59  31  62 /  05  00  05  20  00
CAMDEN      71  41  59  34  59 /  05  05  20  40  00
CRESTVIEW   77  47  58  37  61 /  10  10  50  70  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA
     ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM MONDAY TO 6 AM WEDNESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM...MISSISSIPPI
     SOUND...NORTHERN MOBILE BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...
     PERDIDO BAY...SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO
     PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO
     PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMOB 241117
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
517 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS
WAS POSITIONED ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE NATION THIS MORNING WITH
HIGH LEVEL WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW PERSISTING OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS DRAPED FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHWEST ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS.
LINGERING MOISTURE AND SUBTLE MID LEVEL IMPULSES TRACKING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST IN THE FLOW ALOFT HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR A NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST BAND OF SHOWERS FROM THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE...
DOWN ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING AT THE START OF THE
SHIFT. A GRADUAL EASTWARD SHIFT IN THIS RAINFALL AXIS HAS BEEN
OBSERVED IN RADAR TRENDS. WILL MAINTAIN A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS
OVER SAME AREAS THIS MORNING AS OVERALL UPPER FLOW CHANGES LITTLE.
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SWING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST TODAY...CAUSING REMAINING MOISTURE AND MORNING CLOUDINESS TO
MOVE OUT OF THE AREA THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY. ALTHOUGH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS...NOT LOOKING FOR THE COOLER AIR TO ARRIVE
UNTIL TONIGHT WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE LOWER/MID 70S.
FRONT MOVES WELL EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING AND NOSING EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES. COOL AIR
ADVECTION PROCESSES SET UP WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS BACK DOWN INTO THE
LOWER/MID 40S INTERIOR TO CLOSER TO 50 AT THE BEACHES. UPPER LEVEL
TROF OVER THE NATION`S MID SECTION AMPLIFIES STRONGLY LATE TONIGHT
WITH A STRONG H30 MILLIBAR JET STREAK (130 TO 160 KNOTS) ON ITS EAST
SIDE SETTING UP FROM THE MID SOUTH TO ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
ENHANCED JET STREAK DYNAMICS IN THE FAVORED RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF
THE HIGH LEVEL JET BEGINS PULLING MOISTURE NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND CAUSING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER
OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAY OCCUR OVER THE
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE LATE TONIGHT.

THE COMBINATION OF MODERATE TO STRONG WIND AT THE BEACHES...6 TO 8
PERIOD SWELL AND SPRING TIDAL CYCLES...FORECASTERS WILL MAINTAIN A
HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS TO POTENTIALLY DEADLY RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE
BEACH AREAS THROUGH TUESDAY. /10

[TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY]...FORECAST GETS INTERESTING TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH A POSSIBLE MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. UNTIL THEN...THE 300 MB JET
STREAK OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION INCREASES TO 160 TO 190 KNOTS ON
TUESDAY...WITH A SOUTHWARD EXTENSION OF THE JET (140 TO 160 KNOTS)
AS FAR SOUTH AS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. AS A RESULT...THE UPPER TROUGH
BECOMES HIGHLY AMPLIFIED OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION...AND THEN
ADVANCES EASTWARD WITH THE AXIS REACHING THE ENTIRE REACH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. RAIN COVERAGE WILL
INCREASE FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST AS THE FORECAST AREA RESIDES IN
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET. INCREASING
MOISTURE AND STRONG FORCING IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS WILL RESULT IN
THE INCREASE IN RAIN...WITH A SHARP GRADIENT SETTING UP ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY EVENING. IN FACT...RAIN CHANCES WILL RANGE
FROM NEAR 20 PERCENT ACROSS OUR EXTREME NORTHWEST ZONES (NEAR
WAYNESBORO MS) TO NEAR 80 PERCENT ACROSS OUR EXTREME SOUTHEAST ZONES
(DESTIN FL).

MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING A SATURATED AIR MASS IN SUB FREEZING
TEMPERATURES ABOVE 5000 FEET TUESDAY EVENING...WITH A LAYER OF DRIER
AIR BELOW. ADEQUATE SATURATION IN THE -10C TO -20C LAYER FAVORS
DENDRITIC GROWTH OF ICE CRYSTALS...WITH SNOW FORMING AS THE ICE
CRYSTALS FALL. AS SNOW FALLS BELOW THE 5000 FOOT LEVEL EARLY TUESDAY
EVENING...IT WILL FIRST RESULT IN COMPLETE MELTING BEFORE REACHING
THE SURFACE. HOWEVER...DYNAMIC COOLING IN THE DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR
MASS WITH WET BULB TEMPERATURES AS LOW AS -3C...AND THE RESULT OF
THE FROZEN PRECIPITATION DRAGGING COLD AIR ALOFT TOWARD THE
SURFACE...SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME OF THE SNOW FLAKES TO
SURVIVE THE JOURNEY TO EARTH FROM LATE TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH 3
AM...BEFORE MOVING EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE BEST CHANCE OF A
RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL OCCUR ACROSS OUR INLAND MISSISSIPPI...INLAND
SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA ZONES. THIS RAIN/SNOW
MIX LINE MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FURTHER SOUTH AS THE EVENT NEARS.
FOR NOW...WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE
OCCURS IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM 57 TO 62 DEGREES. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM 32 TO 37 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...AND FROM 37 TO 42 DEGREES
ALONG THE COAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM 58
TO 63 DEGREES. /22

.LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...A WEST-NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW
PATTERN THROUGH FRIDAY WILL TRANSITION TO MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW OVER
THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY AS AN UPPER HIGH BUILDS OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL SETTLE
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE LONG TERM. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 60 TO 65 DEGREES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
CLIMBING TO BETWEEN 65 AND 70 DEGREES OVER THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY.
LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 37 TO 41
DEGREES INLAND AREAS...AND FROM 41 TO 47 DEGREES ALONG THE COAST. A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND IN LOW TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR EACH NIGHT
THROUGH THE EXTENDED...AND BY SUNDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM 48 TO 53 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...AND FROM 53 TO 58 DEGREES ALONG
THE COAST. /22

&&

.AVIATION...
24.12Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF CYCLE
TO BEGIN THE FORECAST...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE LINGERING CLOUDS WITH LOW BASES (IFR-MVFR) ALONG WITH
PATCHY FOG. COULD BE A FEW MORNING -SHRA MAINLY EAST OF PNS. LIGHT
SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS MORNING. COLD FRONT SWINGS EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY BRINGING A WIND SHIFT (W-NW 8 TO 13 KNOTS)
DURING THE MID/LATE MORNING MOB/BFM...TO EARLY AFTERNOON AROUND PNS
AND POINTS EAST. CLOUD BASES ARE FORECAST TO LIFT TO MVFR/VFR
CATEGORIES AND POSSIBLY BEGIN TO DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. /10

&&

.MARINE...LATEST DATA COLLECTION PLATFORMS INDICATE PREVAILING
SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA AND HAVE
REMAINED SO FOR THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. SEAS HAVE ALSO MOVED BELOW
CRITERIA...SO WILL END THE CURRENT ADVISORY OVER THE OPEN GULF
MARINE ZONES AND REPLACE WITH SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES
THIS MORNING FOR POTENTIAL OF A FEW HIGHER GUSTS. COLD FRONT MOVES
EAST AND BRINGS A WIND SHIFT ACROSS THE MARINE AREA TODAY...FOLLOWED
BY A BUILDING RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. A MODERATE TO STRONG
OFFSHORE FLOW REDEVELOPS TONIGHT AND CONTINUES TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE HIGH INTERACTS WITH A DEVELOPING WAVE OF
FRONTAL SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF...THAT TRACKS
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA. LATEST GRIDDED
WIND/GUST GRIDS SUPPORT THE ISSUANCE OF A NEW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. SEAS
REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE NEAR TERM. /10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      73  44  61  37  61 /  05  05  30  40  00
PENSACOLA   76  47  59  41  61 /  05  10  40  70  05
DESTIN      74  51  57  43  61 /  20  20  50  80  10
EVERGREEN   74  42  60  34  59 /  05  05  30  60  00
WAYNESBORO  67  40  59  31  62 /  05  00  10  20  00
CAMDEN      71  41  59  34  59 /  05  05  20  40  00
CRESTVIEW   77  47  58  37  61 /  10  10  50  70  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA
     ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM MONDAY TO 6 AM WEDNESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM...MISSISSIPPI
     SOUND...NORTHERN MOBILE BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...
     PERDIDO BAY...SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO
     PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO
     PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMOB 241117
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
517 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS
WAS POSITIONED ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE NATION THIS MORNING WITH
HIGH LEVEL WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW PERSISTING OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS DRAPED FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHWEST ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS.
LINGERING MOISTURE AND SUBTLE MID LEVEL IMPULSES TRACKING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST IN THE FLOW ALOFT HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR A NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST BAND OF SHOWERS FROM THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE...
DOWN ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING AT THE START OF THE
SHIFT. A GRADUAL EASTWARD SHIFT IN THIS RAINFALL AXIS HAS BEEN
OBSERVED IN RADAR TRENDS. WILL MAINTAIN A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS
OVER SAME AREAS THIS MORNING AS OVERALL UPPER FLOW CHANGES LITTLE.
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SWING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST TODAY...CAUSING REMAINING MOISTURE AND MORNING CLOUDINESS TO
MOVE OUT OF THE AREA THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY. ALTHOUGH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS...NOT LOOKING FOR THE COOLER AIR TO ARRIVE
UNTIL TONIGHT WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE LOWER/MID 70S.
FRONT MOVES WELL EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING AND NOSING EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES. COOL AIR
ADVECTION PROCESSES SET UP WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS BACK DOWN INTO THE
LOWER/MID 40S INTERIOR TO CLOSER TO 50 AT THE BEACHES. UPPER LEVEL
TROF OVER THE NATION`S MID SECTION AMPLIFIES STRONGLY LATE TONIGHT
WITH A STRONG H30 MILLIBAR JET STREAK (130 TO 160 KNOTS) ON ITS EAST
SIDE SETTING UP FROM THE MID SOUTH TO ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
ENHANCED JET STREAK DYNAMICS IN THE FAVORED RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF
THE HIGH LEVEL JET BEGINS PULLING MOISTURE NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND CAUSING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER
OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAY OCCUR OVER THE
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE LATE TONIGHT.

THE COMBINATION OF MODERATE TO STRONG WIND AT THE BEACHES...6 TO 8
PERIOD SWELL AND SPRING TIDAL CYCLES...FORECASTERS WILL MAINTAIN A
HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS TO POTENTIALLY DEADLY RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE
BEACH AREAS THROUGH TUESDAY. /10

[TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY]...FORECAST GETS INTERESTING TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH A POSSIBLE MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. UNTIL THEN...THE 300 MB JET
STREAK OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION INCREASES TO 160 TO 190 KNOTS ON
TUESDAY...WITH A SOUTHWARD EXTENSION OF THE JET (140 TO 160 KNOTS)
AS FAR SOUTH AS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. AS A RESULT...THE UPPER TROUGH
BECOMES HIGHLY AMPLIFIED OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION...AND THEN
ADVANCES EASTWARD WITH THE AXIS REACHING THE ENTIRE REACH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. RAIN COVERAGE WILL
INCREASE FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST AS THE FORECAST AREA RESIDES IN
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET. INCREASING
MOISTURE AND STRONG FORCING IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS WILL RESULT IN
THE INCREASE IN RAIN...WITH A SHARP GRADIENT SETTING UP ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY EVENING. IN FACT...RAIN CHANCES WILL RANGE
FROM NEAR 20 PERCENT ACROSS OUR EXTREME NORTHWEST ZONES (NEAR
WAYNESBORO MS) TO NEAR 80 PERCENT ACROSS OUR EXTREME SOUTHEAST ZONES
(DESTIN FL).

MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING A SATURATED AIR MASS IN SUB FREEZING
TEMPERATURES ABOVE 5000 FEET TUESDAY EVENING...WITH A LAYER OF DRIER
AIR BELOW. ADEQUATE SATURATION IN THE -10C TO -20C LAYER FAVORS
DENDRITIC GROWTH OF ICE CRYSTALS...WITH SNOW FORMING AS THE ICE
CRYSTALS FALL. AS SNOW FALLS BELOW THE 5000 FOOT LEVEL EARLY TUESDAY
EVENING...IT WILL FIRST RESULT IN COMPLETE MELTING BEFORE REACHING
THE SURFACE. HOWEVER...DYNAMIC COOLING IN THE DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR
MASS WITH WET BULB TEMPERATURES AS LOW AS -3C...AND THE RESULT OF
THE FROZEN PRECIPITATION DRAGGING COLD AIR ALOFT TOWARD THE
SURFACE...SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME OF THE SNOW FLAKES TO
SURVIVE THE JOURNEY TO EARTH FROM LATE TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH 3
AM...BEFORE MOVING EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE BEST CHANCE OF A
RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL OCCUR ACROSS OUR INLAND MISSISSIPPI...INLAND
SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA ZONES. THIS RAIN/SNOW
MIX LINE MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FURTHER SOUTH AS THE EVENT NEARS.
FOR NOW...WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE
OCCURS IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM 57 TO 62 DEGREES. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM 32 TO 37 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...AND FROM 37 TO 42 DEGREES
ALONG THE COAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM 58
TO 63 DEGREES. /22

.LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...A WEST-NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW
PATTERN THROUGH FRIDAY WILL TRANSITION TO MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW OVER
THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY AS AN UPPER HIGH BUILDS OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL SETTLE
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE LONG TERM. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 60 TO 65 DEGREES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
CLIMBING TO BETWEEN 65 AND 70 DEGREES OVER THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY.
LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 37 TO 41
DEGREES INLAND AREAS...AND FROM 41 TO 47 DEGREES ALONG THE COAST. A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND IN LOW TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR EACH NIGHT
THROUGH THE EXTENDED...AND BY SUNDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM 48 TO 53 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...AND FROM 53 TO 58 DEGREES ALONG
THE COAST. /22

&&

.AVIATION...
24.12Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF CYCLE
TO BEGIN THE FORECAST...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE LINGERING CLOUDS WITH LOW BASES (IFR-MVFR) ALONG WITH
PATCHY FOG. COULD BE A FEW MORNING -SHRA MAINLY EAST OF PNS. LIGHT
SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS MORNING. COLD FRONT SWINGS EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY BRINGING A WIND SHIFT (W-NW 8 TO 13 KNOTS)
DURING THE MID/LATE MORNING MOB/BFM...TO EARLY AFTERNOON AROUND PNS
AND POINTS EAST. CLOUD BASES ARE FORECAST TO LIFT TO MVFR/VFR
CATEGORIES AND POSSIBLY BEGIN TO DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. /10

&&

.MARINE...LATEST DATA COLLECTION PLATFORMS INDICATE PREVAILING
SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA AND HAVE
REMAINED SO FOR THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. SEAS HAVE ALSO MOVED BELOW
CRITERIA...SO WILL END THE CURRENT ADVISORY OVER THE OPEN GULF
MARINE ZONES AND REPLACE WITH SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES
THIS MORNING FOR POTENTIAL OF A FEW HIGHER GUSTS. COLD FRONT MOVES
EAST AND BRINGS A WIND SHIFT ACROSS THE MARINE AREA TODAY...FOLLOWED
BY A BUILDING RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. A MODERATE TO STRONG
OFFSHORE FLOW REDEVELOPS TONIGHT AND CONTINUES TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE HIGH INTERACTS WITH A DEVELOPING WAVE OF
FRONTAL SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF...THAT TRACKS
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA. LATEST GRIDDED
WIND/GUST GRIDS SUPPORT THE ISSUANCE OF A NEW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. SEAS
REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE NEAR TERM. /10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      73  44  61  37  61 /  05  05  30  40  00
PENSACOLA   76  47  59  41  61 /  05  10  40  70  05
DESTIN      74  51  57  43  61 /  20  20  50  80  10
EVERGREEN   74  42  60  34  59 /  05  05  30  60  00
WAYNESBORO  67  40  59  31  62 /  05  00  10  20  00
CAMDEN      71  41  59  34  59 /  05  05  20  40  00
CRESTVIEW   77  47  58  37  61 /  10  10  50  70  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA
     ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM MONDAY TO 6 AM WEDNESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM...MISSISSIPPI
     SOUND...NORTHERN MOBILE BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...
     PERDIDO BAY...SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO
     PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO
     PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMOB 240409 AAC
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1009 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.MARINE...HAVE CANCELLED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE BAYS AND
INLAND WATERWAYS WITH THE EVENING ISSUANCE. WHILE WINDS WILL
PRIMARILY NOT MEET CRITERIA OVER THE GULF WATERS...HAVE KEPT THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THIS PORTION AS SEAS WILL BE SLOW
TO SUBSIDE. /29

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z ISSUANCE...
IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT TO A MVFR CEILING EARLY MONDAY
MORNING FOLLOWED BY VFR CONDITIONS LATER MONDAY MORNING. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST MID TO LATE
MONDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. /29

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 902 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

UPDATE...LOW STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AND WILL
UPDATE FOR SKY COVER.  MADE OTHER MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. /29

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 530 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

AVIATION...
00Z ISSUANCE UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS BEGIN THE PERIOD THEN A LOW CEILING IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP NEAR 05Z ALONG WITH LIGHT FOG. BASED ON THE LATEST
DATA...THIS CEILING HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE LOWER THAN EARLIER
EXPECTED SO WILL BEGIN WITH IFR CEILINGS AT 05Z. THE LOW CEILING
PERSISTS UNTIL CLEARING MID MONDAY MORNING. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
NEAR 10 KNOTS BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST MID TO LATE MONDAY MORNING AS
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. /29

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 511 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED TO CANCEL THE WIND ADVISORY AS WIND GUSTS HAVE
SUBSIDED AND LIKEWISE CANCELLED THE GALE WARNING FOR THE SAME REASON.
MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS THIS EVENING AS SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY
LOCATED EAST OF THE AREA...BUT KEPT SMALL POPS IN MAINLY FOR A SMALL
PORTION OF THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE LATE TONIGHT AS SOME
ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP IN THIS AREA. MADE ADJUSTMENTS
TO CLOUD COVER BASED ON LATEST TRENDS AND OTHER SMALL ADJUSTMENTS. /29

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN
MOVING EAST OF THE FCST AREA AT THIS TIME. BROKEN LINE OF STORMS
MOVED ACROSS THE FCST AREA THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH A
FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS AND SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS
ISSUED. DID HAVE SPORADIC WIND DAMAGE REPORTS...PRIMARILY FROM THE
OPP AREA (SEE LOCAL STORM REPORTS). WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES
MID LEVEL DRY AIR QUICKLY MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST...BUT
LOWER LEVELS WONT SIGNIFICANTLY DRY UNTIL THE ACTUAL FRONTAL PASSAGE
LATER TONIGHT. SFC LOW LIFTING UP ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WRAP AROUND MAINTAINING A
BKN/OVC LOW LEVEL CLOUD BASE THIS EVENING. WITH THE RAIN WET GROUND
AND STILL MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES
TONIGHT...EXPECT TO HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE FCST
AREA AROUND DAYBREAK MONDAY...AND BE EAST OF THE AREA BY NOON.
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT...
THEN BASICALLY A TEMP AND WIND FCST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MAINTAINED
THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL LET IT EXPIRE AS
ADVERTISED AT 6 PM. MAYBE A FEW LINGERING LIGHT PATCHES OF RAIN OVER
FAR EASTERN ZONES THIS EVENING...OTHERWISE A DRY SHORT TERM FCST.
LOW TEMPS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER 50S WELL INLAND...RAINING TO THE
LOWER 60S TO THE SOUTH AND ALONG THE COAST. HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE
MID 60S OVER NORTHWEST WHERE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE
EARLY PART OF THE DAY...RANGING TO THE MIDDLE 70S SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES WHERE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT DEVELOPS A LITTLE
LATER IN THE DAY. COLDER MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BEHIND
THE FRONT... LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S OVER INTERIOR COUNTIES
AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S ALONG THE COAST. 12/DS

(TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT)...A 160 KNOT JET STREAK AT 300 MB WILL
FOLLOW THE ONE SEEN THIS MORNING PLUNGING SOUTHEAST FROM OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE NEW FEATURE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE ROCKIES
MONDAY MORNING DIGGING A DEEP UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST TO SOUTHEAST TEXAS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS RELATIVELY
SHORT WAVELENGTH UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND PAST US BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A COLD
SURFACE HIGH WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO AND
RIDGING INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS
OCCURS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE RESULTING LOW WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF AND REACH THE EASTERN GULF BY
TUESDAY EVENING CROSSING INTO THE CENTRAL PENINSULAR GULF COAST OF
FLORIDA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A DEEP LAYER CHILLING TREND
TO THE REGION STARTING EARLY TUESDAY AS THE GULF LOW RUNS ALONG A SW
TO NE TRACK SOUTH OF US BRINGING ABOUT INCREASED COLD AIR ADVECTION.
PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE UPPER TROUGH...HIGHS ACROSS OUR REGION
WILL BE NEAR 60 WHICH IS 10 TO 13 DEGREES BELOW THE MONTHLY MEAN WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S OR 5 TO 8
DEGREES BELOW THE MONTHLY MEAN. WE HAVE EVALUATED THE SOUNDINGS FROM
THE NAM...GFS...AND EURO THOROUGHLY...AND HAVE DETERMINED WE WILL SEE
ONLY COLD RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT AND NOT MUCH ELSE. 77/BD

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...WAVE NUMBER 5 PATTERN SHOWS A
WELL ESTABLISHED 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE UPPER PLAINS. THE TROUGH WILL
FLATTEN OUT INTO A MUCH LONGER WAVEFORM BRINGING UPPER ZONAL FLOW TO
THE REGION. THAT WOULD OCCUR BY THURSDAY WITH A SURFACE HIGH BUILDING IN
FROM THE WEST DOMINATING THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTHEAST STATES
THROUGH SUNDAY. THUS IT WILL BE DRY AND COOL WITH HIGHS FROM THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S...AND LOWS FROM THE MID 30S INLAND TO THE MID
40S COASTAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INCREASING INTO THE
MID 40S TO MID 50S SUNDAY NIGHT. 77/BD

MARINE...TAIL END OF PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE MOVING EAST OF THE
MARINE AREA BY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. STRONG SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT DROPPING BELOW
GALE FORCE (WITH REGARD TO GUSTS). AS SUCH...WILL LET THE GALE
WARNING EXPIRE AT 6 PM THIS EVENING AS PREVIOUSLY INDICATED...BUT
MAINTAIN THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH NOON MONDAY. DURING THE
DAY ON MONDAY...WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND BECOME MORE NORTHERLY MONDAY NIGHT WHILE
BRIEFLY SUBSIDING. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK...
INCREASING AGAIN ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LIKELY
DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF AND MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARD THE
CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA. DURING THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK... THE
OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUES BUT WEAKENS CONSIDERABLY. SEAS INITIALLY UP
TO AROUND 9 FEET TONIGHT...SUBSIDING TO AROUND 6 FEET BY
WEDNESDAY...THEN 1-2 FEET LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. 12/DS

AVIATION...
24/00Z TAF ISSUANCE...CEILINGS GENERALLY AT THE LOWER LIMIT OF VFR
THROUGH TONIGHT (AROUND 4000 FEET)...BUT IN SOME PLACES LOWER TO
MVFR IN PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT. THE FOG MAY LIMIT SFC VSBY TO AROUND 3
MILES (MVFR OR BRIEFLY IFR IN SOME LOCATIONS) AFTER ABOUT 24/15Z
ONLY HIGH CLOUDS LEFT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS AND EAST OF
THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. WINDS INITIALLY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST 10G20 KNOTS OR SO EARLY THIS EVENING...DECREASING TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT (PERHAPS SOME HIGHER GUSTS NEAR THE
COAST).  DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...
GENERALLY AROUND 10 KNOTS. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      58  71  42  59  40 /  10  10  10  20  30
PENSACOLA   63  75  45  57  42 /  10  10  10  40  40
DESTIN      67  73  51  57  46 /  20  10  10  40  50
EVERGREEN   57  70  41  58  39 /  10  10  10  20  30
WAYNESBORO  53  67  36  58  36 /  10  10  10  05  20
CAMDEN      54  68  39  57  38 /  10  10  10  10  20
CRESTVIEW   59  75  43  58  39 /  20  10  10  30  50

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20
     NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMOB 240409 AAC
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1009 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.MARINE...HAVE CANCELLED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE BAYS AND
INLAND WATERWAYS WITH THE EVENING ISSUANCE. WHILE WINDS WILL
PRIMARILY NOT MEET CRITERIA OVER THE GULF WATERS...HAVE KEPT THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THIS PORTION AS SEAS WILL BE SLOW
TO SUBSIDE. /29

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z ISSUANCE...
IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT TO A MVFR CEILING EARLY MONDAY
MORNING FOLLOWED BY VFR CONDITIONS LATER MONDAY MORNING. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST MID TO LATE
MONDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. /29

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 902 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

UPDATE...LOW STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AND WILL
UPDATE FOR SKY COVER.  MADE OTHER MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. /29

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 530 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

AVIATION...
00Z ISSUANCE UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS BEGIN THE PERIOD THEN A LOW CEILING IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP NEAR 05Z ALONG WITH LIGHT FOG. BASED ON THE LATEST
DATA...THIS CEILING HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE LOWER THAN EARLIER
EXPECTED SO WILL BEGIN WITH IFR CEILINGS AT 05Z. THE LOW CEILING
PERSISTS UNTIL CLEARING MID MONDAY MORNING. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
NEAR 10 KNOTS BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST MID TO LATE MONDAY MORNING AS
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. /29

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 511 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED TO CANCEL THE WIND ADVISORY AS WIND GUSTS HAVE
SUBSIDED AND LIKEWISE CANCELLED THE GALE WARNING FOR THE SAME REASON.
MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS THIS EVENING AS SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY
LOCATED EAST OF THE AREA...BUT KEPT SMALL POPS IN MAINLY FOR A SMALL
PORTION OF THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE LATE TONIGHT AS SOME
ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP IN THIS AREA. MADE ADJUSTMENTS
TO CLOUD COVER BASED ON LATEST TRENDS AND OTHER SMALL ADJUSTMENTS. /29

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN
MOVING EAST OF THE FCST AREA AT THIS TIME. BROKEN LINE OF STORMS
MOVED ACROSS THE FCST AREA THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH A
FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS AND SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS
ISSUED. DID HAVE SPORADIC WIND DAMAGE REPORTS...PRIMARILY FROM THE
OPP AREA (SEE LOCAL STORM REPORTS). WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES
MID LEVEL DRY AIR QUICKLY MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST...BUT
LOWER LEVELS WONT SIGNIFICANTLY DRY UNTIL THE ACTUAL FRONTAL PASSAGE
LATER TONIGHT. SFC LOW LIFTING UP ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WRAP AROUND MAINTAINING A
BKN/OVC LOW LEVEL CLOUD BASE THIS EVENING. WITH THE RAIN WET GROUND
AND STILL MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES
TONIGHT...EXPECT TO HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE FCST
AREA AROUND DAYBREAK MONDAY...AND BE EAST OF THE AREA BY NOON.
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT...
THEN BASICALLY A TEMP AND WIND FCST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MAINTAINED
THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL LET IT EXPIRE AS
ADVERTISED AT 6 PM. MAYBE A FEW LINGERING LIGHT PATCHES OF RAIN OVER
FAR EASTERN ZONES THIS EVENING...OTHERWISE A DRY SHORT TERM FCST.
LOW TEMPS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER 50S WELL INLAND...RAINING TO THE
LOWER 60S TO THE SOUTH AND ALONG THE COAST. HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE
MID 60S OVER NORTHWEST WHERE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE
EARLY PART OF THE DAY...RANGING TO THE MIDDLE 70S SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES WHERE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT DEVELOPS A LITTLE
LATER IN THE DAY. COLDER MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BEHIND
THE FRONT... LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S OVER INTERIOR COUNTIES
AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S ALONG THE COAST. 12/DS

(TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT)...A 160 KNOT JET STREAK AT 300 MB WILL
FOLLOW THE ONE SEEN THIS MORNING PLUNGING SOUTHEAST FROM OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE NEW FEATURE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE ROCKIES
MONDAY MORNING DIGGING A DEEP UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST TO SOUTHEAST TEXAS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS RELATIVELY
SHORT WAVELENGTH UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND PAST US BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A COLD
SURFACE HIGH WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO AND
RIDGING INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS
OCCURS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE RESULTING LOW WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF AND REACH THE EASTERN GULF BY
TUESDAY EVENING CROSSING INTO THE CENTRAL PENINSULAR GULF COAST OF
FLORIDA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A DEEP LAYER CHILLING TREND
TO THE REGION STARTING EARLY TUESDAY AS THE GULF LOW RUNS ALONG A SW
TO NE TRACK SOUTH OF US BRINGING ABOUT INCREASED COLD AIR ADVECTION.
PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE UPPER TROUGH...HIGHS ACROSS OUR REGION
WILL BE NEAR 60 WHICH IS 10 TO 13 DEGREES BELOW THE MONTHLY MEAN WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S OR 5 TO 8
DEGREES BELOW THE MONTHLY MEAN. WE HAVE EVALUATED THE SOUNDINGS FROM
THE NAM...GFS...AND EURO THOROUGHLY...AND HAVE DETERMINED WE WILL SEE
ONLY COLD RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT AND NOT MUCH ELSE. 77/BD

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...WAVE NUMBER 5 PATTERN SHOWS A
WELL ESTABLISHED 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE UPPER PLAINS. THE TROUGH WILL
FLATTEN OUT INTO A MUCH LONGER WAVEFORM BRINGING UPPER ZONAL FLOW TO
THE REGION. THAT WOULD OCCUR BY THURSDAY WITH A SURFACE HIGH BUILDING IN
FROM THE WEST DOMINATING THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTHEAST STATES
THROUGH SUNDAY. THUS IT WILL BE DRY AND COOL WITH HIGHS FROM THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S...AND LOWS FROM THE MID 30S INLAND TO THE MID
40S COASTAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INCREASING INTO THE
MID 40S TO MID 50S SUNDAY NIGHT. 77/BD

MARINE...TAIL END OF PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE MOVING EAST OF THE
MARINE AREA BY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. STRONG SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT DROPPING BELOW
GALE FORCE (WITH REGARD TO GUSTS). AS SUCH...WILL LET THE GALE
WARNING EXPIRE AT 6 PM THIS EVENING AS PREVIOUSLY INDICATED...BUT
MAINTAIN THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH NOON MONDAY. DURING THE
DAY ON MONDAY...WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND BECOME MORE NORTHERLY MONDAY NIGHT WHILE
BRIEFLY SUBSIDING. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK...
INCREASING AGAIN ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LIKELY
DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF AND MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARD THE
CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA. DURING THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK... THE
OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUES BUT WEAKENS CONSIDERABLY. SEAS INITIALLY UP
TO AROUND 9 FEET TONIGHT...SUBSIDING TO AROUND 6 FEET BY
WEDNESDAY...THEN 1-2 FEET LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. 12/DS

AVIATION...
24/00Z TAF ISSUANCE...CEILINGS GENERALLY AT THE LOWER LIMIT OF VFR
THROUGH TONIGHT (AROUND 4000 FEET)...BUT IN SOME PLACES LOWER TO
MVFR IN PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT. THE FOG MAY LIMIT SFC VSBY TO AROUND 3
MILES (MVFR OR BRIEFLY IFR IN SOME LOCATIONS) AFTER ABOUT 24/15Z
ONLY HIGH CLOUDS LEFT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS AND EAST OF
THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. WINDS INITIALLY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST 10G20 KNOTS OR SO EARLY THIS EVENING...DECREASING TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT (PERHAPS SOME HIGHER GUSTS NEAR THE
COAST).  DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...
GENERALLY AROUND 10 KNOTS. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      58  71  42  59  40 /  10  10  10  20  30
PENSACOLA   63  75  45  57  42 /  10  10  10  40  40
DESTIN      67  73  51  57  46 /  20  10  10  40  50
EVERGREEN   57  70  41  58  39 /  10  10  10  20  30
WAYNESBORO  53  67  36  58  36 /  10  10  10  05  20
CAMDEN      54  68  39  57  38 /  10  10  10  10  20
CRESTVIEW   59  75  43  58  39 /  20  10  10  30  50

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20
     NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...

&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KMOB 240409 AAC
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1009 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.MARINE...HAVE CANCELLED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE BAYS AND
INLAND WATERWAYS WITH THE EVENING ISSUANCE. WHILE WINDS WILL
PRIMARILY NOT MEET CRITERIA OVER THE GULF WATERS...HAVE KEPT THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THIS PORTION AS SEAS WILL BE SLOW
TO SUBSIDE. /29

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z ISSUANCE...
IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT TO A MVFR CEILING EARLY MONDAY
MORNING FOLLOWED BY VFR CONDITIONS LATER MONDAY MORNING. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST MID TO LATE
MONDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. /29

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 902 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

UPDATE...LOW STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AND WILL
UPDATE FOR SKY COVER.  MADE OTHER MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. /29

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 530 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

AVIATION...
00Z ISSUANCE UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS BEGIN THE PERIOD THEN A LOW CEILING IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP NEAR 05Z ALONG WITH LIGHT FOG. BASED ON THE LATEST
DATA...THIS CEILING HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE LOWER THAN EARLIER
EXPECTED SO WILL BEGIN WITH IFR CEILINGS AT 05Z. THE LOW CEILING
PERSISTS UNTIL CLEARING MID MONDAY MORNING. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
NEAR 10 KNOTS BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST MID TO LATE MONDAY MORNING AS
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. /29

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 511 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED TO CANCEL THE WIND ADVISORY AS WIND GUSTS HAVE
SUBSIDED AND LIKEWISE CANCELLED THE GALE WARNING FOR THE SAME REASON.
MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS THIS EVENING AS SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY
LOCATED EAST OF THE AREA...BUT KEPT SMALL POPS IN MAINLY FOR A SMALL
PORTION OF THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE LATE TONIGHT AS SOME
ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP IN THIS AREA. MADE ADJUSTMENTS
TO CLOUD COVER BASED ON LATEST TRENDS AND OTHER SMALL ADJUSTMENTS. /29

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN
MOVING EAST OF THE FCST AREA AT THIS TIME. BROKEN LINE OF STORMS
MOVED ACROSS THE FCST AREA THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH A
FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS AND SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS
ISSUED. DID HAVE SPORADIC WIND DAMAGE REPORTS...PRIMARILY FROM THE
OPP AREA (SEE LOCAL STORM REPORTS). WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES
MID LEVEL DRY AIR QUICKLY MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST...BUT
LOWER LEVELS WONT SIGNIFICANTLY DRY UNTIL THE ACTUAL FRONTAL PASSAGE
LATER TONIGHT. SFC LOW LIFTING UP ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WRAP AROUND MAINTAINING A
BKN/OVC LOW LEVEL CLOUD BASE THIS EVENING. WITH THE RAIN WET GROUND
AND STILL MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES
TONIGHT...EXPECT TO HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE FCST
AREA AROUND DAYBREAK MONDAY...AND BE EAST OF THE AREA BY NOON.
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT...
THEN BASICALLY A TEMP AND WIND FCST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MAINTAINED
THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL LET IT EXPIRE AS
ADVERTISED AT 6 PM. MAYBE A FEW LINGERING LIGHT PATCHES OF RAIN OVER
FAR EASTERN ZONES THIS EVENING...OTHERWISE A DRY SHORT TERM FCST.
LOW TEMPS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER 50S WELL INLAND...RAINING TO THE
LOWER 60S TO THE SOUTH AND ALONG THE COAST. HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE
MID 60S OVER NORTHWEST WHERE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE
EARLY PART OF THE DAY...RANGING TO THE MIDDLE 70S SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES WHERE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT DEVELOPS A LITTLE
LATER IN THE DAY. COLDER MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BEHIND
THE FRONT... LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S OVER INTERIOR COUNTIES
AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S ALONG THE COAST. 12/DS

(TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT)...A 160 KNOT JET STREAK AT 300 MB WILL
FOLLOW THE ONE SEEN THIS MORNING PLUNGING SOUTHEAST FROM OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE NEW FEATURE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE ROCKIES
MONDAY MORNING DIGGING A DEEP UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST TO SOUTHEAST TEXAS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS RELATIVELY
SHORT WAVELENGTH UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND PAST US BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A COLD
SURFACE HIGH WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO AND
RIDGING INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS
OCCURS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE RESULTING LOW WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF AND REACH THE EASTERN GULF BY
TUESDAY EVENING CROSSING INTO THE CENTRAL PENINSULAR GULF COAST OF
FLORIDA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A DEEP LAYER CHILLING TREND
TO THE REGION STARTING EARLY TUESDAY AS THE GULF LOW RUNS ALONG A SW
TO NE TRACK SOUTH OF US BRINGING ABOUT INCREASED COLD AIR ADVECTION.
PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE UPPER TROUGH...HIGHS ACROSS OUR REGION
WILL BE NEAR 60 WHICH IS 10 TO 13 DEGREES BELOW THE MONTHLY MEAN WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S OR 5 TO 8
DEGREES BELOW THE MONTHLY MEAN. WE HAVE EVALUATED THE SOUNDINGS FROM
THE NAM...GFS...AND EURO THOROUGHLY...AND HAVE DETERMINED WE WILL SEE
ONLY COLD RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT AND NOT MUCH ELSE. 77/BD

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...WAVE NUMBER 5 PATTERN SHOWS A
WELL ESTABLISHED 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE UPPER PLAINS. THE TROUGH WILL
FLATTEN OUT INTO A MUCH LONGER WAVEFORM BRINGING UPPER ZONAL FLOW TO
THE REGION. THAT WOULD OCCUR BY THURSDAY WITH A SURFACE HIGH BUILDING IN
FROM THE WEST DOMINATING THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTHEAST STATES
THROUGH SUNDAY. THUS IT WILL BE DRY AND COOL WITH HIGHS FROM THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S...AND LOWS FROM THE MID 30S INLAND TO THE MID
40S COASTAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INCREASING INTO THE
MID 40S TO MID 50S SUNDAY NIGHT. 77/BD

MARINE...TAIL END OF PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE MOVING EAST OF THE
MARINE AREA BY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. STRONG SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT DROPPING BELOW
GALE FORCE (WITH REGARD TO GUSTS). AS SUCH...WILL LET THE GALE
WARNING EXPIRE AT 6 PM THIS EVENING AS PREVIOUSLY INDICATED...BUT
MAINTAIN THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH NOON MONDAY. DURING THE
DAY ON MONDAY...WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND BECOME MORE NORTHERLY MONDAY NIGHT WHILE
BRIEFLY SUBSIDING. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK...
INCREASING AGAIN ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LIKELY
DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF AND MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARD THE
CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA. DURING THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK... THE
OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUES BUT WEAKENS CONSIDERABLY. SEAS INITIALLY UP
TO AROUND 9 FEET TONIGHT...SUBSIDING TO AROUND 6 FEET BY
WEDNESDAY...THEN 1-2 FEET LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. 12/DS

AVIATION...
24/00Z TAF ISSUANCE...CEILINGS GENERALLY AT THE LOWER LIMIT OF VFR
THROUGH TONIGHT (AROUND 4000 FEET)...BUT IN SOME PLACES LOWER TO
MVFR IN PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT. THE FOG MAY LIMIT SFC VSBY TO AROUND 3
MILES (MVFR OR BRIEFLY IFR IN SOME LOCATIONS) AFTER ABOUT 24/15Z
ONLY HIGH CLOUDS LEFT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS AND EAST OF
THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. WINDS INITIALLY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST 10G20 KNOTS OR SO EARLY THIS EVENING...DECREASING TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT (PERHAPS SOME HIGHER GUSTS NEAR THE
COAST).  DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...
GENERALLY AROUND 10 KNOTS. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      58  71  42  59  40 /  10  10  10  20  30
PENSACOLA   63  75  45  57  42 /  10  10  10  40  40
DESTIN      67  73  51  57  46 /  20  10  10  40  50
EVERGREEN   57  70  41  58  39 /  10  10  10  20  30
WAYNESBORO  53  67  36  58  36 /  10  10  10  05  20
CAMDEN      54  68  39  57  38 /  10  10  10  10  20
CRESTVIEW   59  75  43  58  39 /  20  10  10  30  50

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20
     NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMOB 240409 AAC
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1009 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.MARINE...HAVE CANCELLED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE BAYS AND
INLAND WATERWAYS WITH THE EVENING ISSUANCE. WHILE WINDS WILL
PRIMARILY NOT MEET CRITERIA OVER THE GULF WATERS...HAVE KEPT THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THIS PORTION AS SEAS WILL BE SLOW
TO SUBSIDE. /29

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z ISSUANCE...
IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT TO A MVFR CEILING EARLY MONDAY
MORNING FOLLOWED BY VFR CONDITIONS LATER MONDAY MORNING. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST MID TO LATE
MONDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. /29

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 902 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

UPDATE...LOW STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AND WILL
UPDATE FOR SKY COVER.  MADE OTHER MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. /29

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 530 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

AVIATION...
00Z ISSUANCE UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS BEGIN THE PERIOD THEN A LOW CEILING IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP NEAR 05Z ALONG WITH LIGHT FOG. BASED ON THE LATEST
DATA...THIS CEILING HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE LOWER THAN EARLIER
EXPECTED SO WILL BEGIN WITH IFR CEILINGS AT 05Z. THE LOW CEILING
PERSISTS UNTIL CLEARING MID MONDAY MORNING. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
NEAR 10 KNOTS BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST MID TO LATE MONDAY MORNING AS
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. /29

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 511 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED TO CANCEL THE WIND ADVISORY AS WIND GUSTS HAVE
SUBSIDED AND LIKEWISE CANCELLED THE GALE WARNING FOR THE SAME REASON.
MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS THIS EVENING AS SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY
LOCATED EAST OF THE AREA...BUT KEPT SMALL POPS IN MAINLY FOR A SMALL
PORTION OF THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE LATE TONIGHT AS SOME
ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP IN THIS AREA. MADE ADJUSTMENTS
TO CLOUD COVER BASED ON LATEST TRENDS AND OTHER SMALL ADJUSTMENTS. /29

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN
MOVING EAST OF THE FCST AREA AT THIS TIME. BROKEN LINE OF STORMS
MOVED ACROSS THE FCST AREA THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH A
FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS AND SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS
ISSUED. DID HAVE SPORADIC WIND DAMAGE REPORTS...PRIMARILY FROM THE
OPP AREA (SEE LOCAL STORM REPORTS). WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES
MID LEVEL DRY AIR QUICKLY MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST...BUT
LOWER LEVELS WONT SIGNIFICANTLY DRY UNTIL THE ACTUAL FRONTAL PASSAGE
LATER TONIGHT. SFC LOW LIFTING UP ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WRAP AROUND MAINTAINING A
BKN/OVC LOW LEVEL CLOUD BASE THIS EVENING. WITH THE RAIN WET GROUND
AND STILL MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES
TONIGHT...EXPECT TO HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE FCST
AREA AROUND DAYBREAK MONDAY...AND BE EAST OF THE AREA BY NOON.
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT...
THEN BASICALLY A TEMP AND WIND FCST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MAINTAINED
THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL LET IT EXPIRE AS
ADVERTISED AT 6 PM. MAYBE A FEW LINGERING LIGHT PATCHES OF RAIN OVER
FAR EASTERN ZONES THIS EVENING...OTHERWISE A DRY SHORT TERM FCST.
LOW TEMPS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER 50S WELL INLAND...RAINING TO THE
LOWER 60S TO THE SOUTH AND ALONG THE COAST. HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE
MID 60S OVER NORTHWEST WHERE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE
EARLY PART OF THE DAY...RANGING TO THE MIDDLE 70S SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES WHERE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT DEVELOPS A LITTLE
LATER IN THE DAY. COLDER MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BEHIND
THE FRONT... LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S OVER INTERIOR COUNTIES
AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S ALONG THE COAST. 12/DS

(TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT)...A 160 KNOT JET STREAK AT 300 MB WILL
FOLLOW THE ONE SEEN THIS MORNING PLUNGING SOUTHEAST FROM OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE NEW FEATURE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE ROCKIES
MONDAY MORNING DIGGING A DEEP UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST TO SOUTHEAST TEXAS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS RELATIVELY
SHORT WAVELENGTH UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND PAST US BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A COLD
SURFACE HIGH WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO AND
RIDGING INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS
OCCURS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE RESULTING LOW WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF AND REACH THE EASTERN GULF BY
TUESDAY EVENING CROSSING INTO THE CENTRAL PENINSULAR GULF COAST OF
FLORIDA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A DEEP LAYER CHILLING TREND
TO THE REGION STARTING EARLY TUESDAY AS THE GULF LOW RUNS ALONG A SW
TO NE TRACK SOUTH OF US BRINGING ABOUT INCREASED COLD AIR ADVECTION.
PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE UPPER TROUGH...HIGHS ACROSS OUR REGION
WILL BE NEAR 60 WHICH IS 10 TO 13 DEGREES BELOW THE MONTHLY MEAN WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S OR 5 TO 8
DEGREES BELOW THE MONTHLY MEAN. WE HAVE EVALUATED THE SOUNDINGS FROM
THE NAM...GFS...AND EURO THOROUGHLY...AND HAVE DETERMINED WE WILL SEE
ONLY COLD RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT AND NOT MUCH ELSE. 77/BD

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...WAVE NUMBER 5 PATTERN SHOWS A
WELL ESTABLISHED 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE UPPER PLAINS. THE TROUGH WILL
FLATTEN OUT INTO A MUCH LONGER WAVEFORM BRINGING UPPER ZONAL FLOW TO
THE REGION. THAT WOULD OCCUR BY THURSDAY WITH A SURFACE HIGH BUILDING IN
FROM THE WEST DOMINATING THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTHEAST STATES
THROUGH SUNDAY. THUS IT WILL BE DRY AND COOL WITH HIGHS FROM THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S...AND LOWS FROM THE MID 30S INLAND TO THE MID
40S COASTAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INCREASING INTO THE
MID 40S TO MID 50S SUNDAY NIGHT. 77/BD

MARINE...TAIL END OF PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE MOVING EAST OF THE
MARINE AREA BY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. STRONG SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT DROPPING BELOW
GALE FORCE (WITH REGARD TO GUSTS). AS SUCH...WILL LET THE GALE
WARNING EXPIRE AT 6 PM THIS EVENING AS PREVIOUSLY INDICATED...BUT
MAINTAIN THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH NOON MONDAY. DURING THE
DAY ON MONDAY...WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND BECOME MORE NORTHERLY MONDAY NIGHT WHILE
BRIEFLY SUBSIDING. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK...
INCREASING AGAIN ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LIKELY
DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF AND MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARD THE
CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA. DURING THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK... THE
OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUES BUT WEAKENS CONSIDERABLY. SEAS INITIALLY UP
TO AROUND 9 FEET TONIGHT...SUBSIDING TO AROUND 6 FEET BY
WEDNESDAY...THEN 1-2 FEET LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. 12/DS

AVIATION...
24/00Z TAF ISSUANCE...CEILINGS GENERALLY AT THE LOWER LIMIT OF VFR
THROUGH TONIGHT (AROUND 4000 FEET)...BUT IN SOME PLACES LOWER TO
MVFR IN PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT. THE FOG MAY LIMIT SFC VSBY TO AROUND 3
MILES (MVFR OR BRIEFLY IFR IN SOME LOCATIONS) AFTER ABOUT 24/15Z
ONLY HIGH CLOUDS LEFT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS AND EAST OF
THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. WINDS INITIALLY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST 10G20 KNOTS OR SO EARLY THIS EVENING...DECREASING TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT (PERHAPS SOME HIGHER GUSTS NEAR THE
COAST).  DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...
GENERALLY AROUND 10 KNOTS. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      58  71  42  59  40 /  10  10  10  20  30
PENSACOLA   63  75  45  57  42 /  10  10  10  40  40
DESTIN      67  73  51  57  46 /  20  10  10  40  50
EVERGREEN   57  70  41  58  39 /  10  10  10  20  30
WAYNESBORO  53  67  36  58  36 /  10  10  10  05  20
CAMDEN      54  68  39  57  38 /  10  10  10  10  20
CRESTVIEW   59  75  43  58  39 /  20  10  10  30  50

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20
     NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...

&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KMOB 240302 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
902 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...LOW STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AND WILL
UPDATE FOR SKY COVER.  MADE OTHER MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. /29

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 530 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

AVIATION...
00Z ISSUANCE UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS BEGIN THE PERIOD THEN A LOW CEILING IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP NEAR 05Z ALONG WITH LIGHT FOG. BASED ON THE LATEST
DATA...THIS CEILING HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE LOWER THAN EARLIER
EXPECTED SO WILL BEGIN WITH IFR CEILINGS AT 05Z. THE LOW CEILING
PERSISTS UNTIL CLEARING MID MONDAY MORNING. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
NEAR 10 KNOTS BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST MID TO LATE MONDAY MORNING AS
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. /29

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 511 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED TO CANCEL THE WIND ADVISORY AS WIND GUSTS HAVE
SUBSIDED AND LIKEWISE CANCELLED THE GALE WARNING FOR THE SAME REASON.
MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS THIS EVENING AS SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY
LOCATED EAST OF THE AREA...BUT KEPT SMALL POPS IN MAINLY FOR A SMALL
PORTION OF THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE LATE TONIGHT AS SOME
ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP IN THIS AREA. MADE ADJUSTMENTS
TO CLOUD COVER BASED ON LATEST TRENDS AND OTHER SMALL ADJUSTMENTS. /29

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN
MOVING EAST OF THE FCST AREA AT THIS TIME. BROKEN LINE OF STORMS
MOVED ACROSS THE FCST AREA THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH A
FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS AND SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS
ISSUED. DID HAVE SPORADIC WIND DAMAGE REPORTS...PRIMARILY FROM THE
OPP AREA (SEE LOCAL STORM REPORTS). WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES
MID LEVEL DRY AIR QUICKLY MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST...BUT
LOWER LEVELS WONT SIGNIFICANTLY DRY UNTIL THE ACTUAL FRONTAL PASSAGE
LATER TONIGHT. SFC LOW LIFTING UP ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WRAP AROUND MAINTAINING A
BKN/OVC LOW LEVEL CLOUD BASE THIS EVENING. WITH THE RAIN WET GROUND
AND STILL MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES
TONIGHT...EXPECT TO HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE FCST
AREA AROUND DAYBREAK MONDAY...AND BE EAST OF THE AREA BY NOON.
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT...
THEN BASICALLY A TEMP AND WIND FCST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MAINTAINED
THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL LET IT EXPIRE AS
ADVERTISED AT 6 PM. MAYBE A FEW LINGERING LIGHT PATCHES OF RAIN OVER
FAR EASTERN ZONES THIS EVENING...OTHERWISE A DRY SHORT TERM FCST.
LOW TEMPS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER 50S WELL INLAND...RAINING TO THE
LOWER 60S TO THE SOUTH AND ALONG THE COAST. HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE
MID 60S OVER NORTHWEST WHERE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE
EARLY PART OF THE DAY...RANGING TO THE MIDDLE 70S SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES WHERE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT DEVELOPS A LITTLE
LATER IN THE DAY. COLDER MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BEHIND
THE FRONT... LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S OVER INTERIOR COUNTIES
AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S ALONG THE COAST. 12/DS

(TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT)...A 160 KNOT JET STREAK AT 300 MB WILL
FOLLOW THE ONE SEEN THIS MORNING PLUNGING SOUTHEAST FROM OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE NEW FEATURE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE ROCKIES
MONDAY MORNING DIGGING A DEEP UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST TO SOUTHEAST TEXAS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS RELATIVELY
SHORT WAVELENGTH UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND PAST US BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A COLD
SURFACE HIGH WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO AND
RIDGING INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS
OCCURS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE RESULTING LOW WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF AND REACH THE EASTERN GULF BY
TUESDAY EVENING CROSSING INTO THE CENTRAL PENINSULAR GULF COAST OF
FLORIDA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A DEEP LAYER CHILLING TREND
TO THE REGION STARTING EARLY TUESDAY AS THE GULF LOW RUNS ALONG A SW
TO NE TRACK SOUTH OF US BRINGING ABOUT INCREASED COLD AIR ADVECTION.
PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE UPPER TROUGH...HIGHS ACROSS OUR REGION
WILL BE NEAR 60 WHICH IS 10 TO 13 DEGREES BELOW THE MONTHLY MEAN WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S OR 5 TO 8
DEGREES BELOW THE MONTHLY MEAN. WE HAVE EVALUATED THE SOUNDINGS FROM
THE NAM...GFS...AND EURO THOROUGHLY...AND HAVE DETERMINED WE WILL SEE
ONLY COLD RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT AND NOT MUCH ELSE. 77/BD

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...WAVE NUMBER 5 PATTERN SHOWS A
WELL ESTABLISHED 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE UPPER PLAINS. THE TROUGH WILL
FLATTEN OUT INTO A MUCH LONGER WAVEFORM BRINGING UPPER ZONAL FLOW TO
THE REGION. THAT WOULD OCCUR BY THURSDAY WITH A SURFACE HIGH BUILDING IN
FROM THE WEST DOMINATING THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTHEAST STATES
THROUGH SUNDAY. THUS IT WILL BE DRY AND COOL WITH HIGHS FROM THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S...AND LOWS FROM THE MID 30S INLAND TO THE MID
40S COASTAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INCREASING INTO THE
MID 40S TO MID 50S SUNDAY NIGHT. 77/BD

MARINE...TAIL END OF PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE MOVING EAST OF THE
MARINE AREA BY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. STRONG SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT DROPPING BELOW
GALE FORCE (WITH REGARD TO GUSTS). AS SUCH...WILL LET THE GALE
WARNING EXPIRE AT 6 PM THIS EVENING AS PREVIOUSLY INDICATED...BUT
MAINTAIN THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH NOON MONDAY. DURING THE
DAY ON MONDAY...WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND BECOME MORE NORTHERLY MONDAY NIGHT WHILE
BRIEFLY SUBSIDING. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK...
INCREASING AGAIN ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LIKELY
DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF AND MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARD THE
CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA. DURING THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK... THE
OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUES BUT WEAKENS CONSIDERABLY. SEAS INITIALLY UP
TO AROUND 9 FEET TONIGHT...SUBSIDING TO AROUND 6 FEET BY
WEDNESDAY...THEN 1-2 FEET LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. 12/DS

AVIATION...
24/00Z TAF ISSUANCE...CEILINGS GENERALLY AT THE LOWER LIMIT OF VFR
THROUGH TONIGHT (AROUND 4000 FEET)...BUT IN SOME PLACES LOWER TO
MVFR IN PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT. THE FOG MAY LIMIT SFC VSBY TO AROUND 3
MILES (MVFR OR BRIEFLY IFR IN SOME LOCATIONS) AFTER ABOUT 24/15Z
ONLY HIGH CLOUDS LEFT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS AND EAST OF
THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. WINDS INITIALLY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST 10G20 KNOTS OR SO EARLY THIS EVENING...DECREASING TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT (PERHAPS SOME HIGHER GUSTS NEAR THE
COAST).  DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...
GENERALLY AROUND 10 KNOTS. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      58  71  42  59  40 /  10  10  10  20  30
PENSACOLA   63  75  45  57  42 /  10  10  10  40  40
DESTIN      67  73  51  57  46 /  20  10  10  40  50
EVERGREEN   57  70  41  58  39 /  10  10  10  20  30
WAYNESBORO  53  67  36  58  36 /  10  10  10  05  20
CAMDEN      54  68  39  57  38 /  10  10  10  10  20
CRESTVIEW   59  75  43  58  39 /  20  10  10  30  50

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO
     PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL
     TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...NORTHERN
     MOBILE BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...PERDIDO BAY...SOUTHERN
     MOBILE BAY...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...

&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KMOB 240302 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
902 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...LOW STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AND WILL
UPDATE FOR SKY COVER.  MADE OTHER MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. /29

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 530 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

AVIATION...
00Z ISSUANCE UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS BEGIN THE PERIOD THEN A LOW CEILING IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP NEAR 05Z ALONG WITH LIGHT FOG. BASED ON THE LATEST
DATA...THIS CEILING HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE LOWER THAN EARLIER
EXPECTED SO WILL BEGIN WITH IFR CEILINGS AT 05Z. THE LOW CEILING
PERSISTS UNTIL CLEARING MID MONDAY MORNING. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
NEAR 10 KNOTS BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST MID TO LATE MONDAY MORNING AS
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. /29

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 511 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED TO CANCEL THE WIND ADVISORY AS WIND GUSTS HAVE
SUBSIDED AND LIKEWISE CANCELLED THE GALE WARNING FOR THE SAME REASON.
MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS THIS EVENING AS SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY
LOCATED EAST OF THE AREA...BUT KEPT SMALL POPS IN MAINLY FOR A SMALL
PORTION OF THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE LATE TONIGHT AS SOME
ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP IN THIS AREA. MADE ADJUSTMENTS
TO CLOUD COVER BASED ON LATEST TRENDS AND OTHER SMALL ADJUSTMENTS. /29

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN
MOVING EAST OF THE FCST AREA AT THIS TIME. BROKEN LINE OF STORMS
MOVED ACROSS THE FCST AREA THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH A
FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS AND SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS
ISSUED. DID HAVE SPORADIC WIND DAMAGE REPORTS...PRIMARILY FROM THE
OPP AREA (SEE LOCAL STORM REPORTS). WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES
MID LEVEL DRY AIR QUICKLY MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST...BUT
LOWER LEVELS WONT SIGNIFICANTLY DRY UNTIL THE ACTUAL FRONTAL PASSAGE
LATER TONIGHT. SFC LOW LIFTING UP ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WRAP AROUND MAINTAINING A
BKN/OVC LOW LEVEL CLOUD BASE THIS EVENING. WITH THE RAIN WET GROUND
AND STILL MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES
TONIGHT...EXPECT TO HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE FCST
AREA AROUND DAYBREAK MONDAY...AND BE EAST OF THE AREA BY NOON.
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT...
THEN BASICALLY A TEMP AND WIND FCST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MAINTAINED
THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL LET IT EXPIRE AS
ADVERTISED AT 6 PM. MAYBE A FEW LINGERING LIGHT PATCHES OF RAIN OVER
FAR EASTERN ZONES THIS EVENING...OTHERWISE A DRY SHORT TERM FCST.
LOW TEMPS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER 50S WELL INLAND...RAINING TO THE
LOWER 60S TO THE SOUTH AND ALONG THE COAST. HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE
MID 60S OVER NORTHWEST WHERE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE
EARLY PART OF THE DAY...RANGING TO THE MIDDLE 70S SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES WHERE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT DEVELOPS A LITTLE
LATER IN THE DAY. COLDER MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BEHIND
THE FRONT... LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S OVER INTERIOR COUNTIES
AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S ALONG THE COAST. 12/DS

(TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT)...A 160 KNOT JET STREAK AT 300 MB WILL
FOLLOW THE ONE SEEN THIS MORNING PLUNGING SOUTHEAST FROM OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE NEW FEATURE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE ROCKIES
MONDAY MORNING DIGGING A DEEP UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST TO SOUTHEAST TEXAS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS RELATIVELY
SHORT WAVELENGTH UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND PAST US BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A COLD
SURFACE HIGH WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO AND
RIDGING INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS
OCCURS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE RESULTING LOW WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF AND REACH THE EASTERN GULF BY
TUESDAY EVENING CROSSING INTO THE CENTRAL PENINSULAR GULF COAST OF
FLORIDA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A DEEP LAYER CHILLING TREND
TO THE REGION STARTING EARLY TUESDAY AS THE GULF LOW RUNS ALONG A SW
TO NE TRACK SOUTH OF US BRINGING ABOUT INCREASED COLD AIR ADVECTION.
PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE UPPER TROUGH...HIGHS ACROSS OUR REGION
WILL BE NEAR 60 WHICH IS 10 TO 13 DEGREES BELOW THE MONTHLY MEAN WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S OR 5 TO 8
DEGREES BELOW THE MONTHLY MEAN. WE HAVE EVALUATED THE SOUNDINGS FROM
THE NAM...GFS...AND EURO THOROUGHLY...AND HAVE DETERMINED WE WILL SEE
ONLY COLD RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT AND NOT MUCH ELSE. 77/BD

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...WAVE NUMBER 5 PATTERN SHOWS A
WELL ESTABLISHED 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE UPPER PLAINS. THE TROUGH WILL
FLATTEN OUT INTO A MUCH LONGER WAVEFORM BRINGING UPPER ZONAL FLOW TO
THE REGION. THAT WOULD OCCUR BY THURSDAY WITH A SURFACE HIGH BUILDING IN
FROM THE WEST DOMINATING THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTHEAST STATES
THROUGH SUNDAY. THUS IT WILL BE DRY AND COOL WITH HIGHS FROM THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S...AND LOWS FROM THE MID 30S INLAND TO THE MID
40S COASTAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INCREASING INTO THE
MID 40S TO MID 50S SUNDAY NIGHT. 77/BD

MARINE...TAIL END OF PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE MOVING EAST OF THE
MARINE AREA BY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. STRONG SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT DROPPING BELOW
GALE FORCE (WITH REGARD TO GUSTS). AS SUCH...WILL LET THE GALE
WARNING EXPIRE AT 6 PM THIS EVENING AS PREVIOUSLY INDICATED...BUT
MAINTAIN THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH NOON MONDAY. DURING THE
DAY ON MONDAY...WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND BECOME MORE NORTHERLY MONDAY NIGHT WHILE
BRIEFLY SUBSIDING. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK...
INCREASING AGAIN ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LIKELY
DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF AND MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARD THE
CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA. DURING THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK... THE
OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUES BUT WEAKENS CONSIDERABLY. SEAS INITIALLY UP
TO AROUND 9 FEET TONIGHT...SUBSIDING TO AROUND 6 FEET BY
WEDNESDAY...THEN 1-2 FEET LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. 12/DS

AVIATION...
24/00Z TAF ISSUANCE...CEILINGS GENERALLY AT THE LOWER LIMIT OF VFR
THROUGH TONIGHT (AROUND 4000 FEET)...BUT IN SOME PLACES LOWER TO
MVFR IN PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT. THE FOG MAY LIMIT SFC VSBY TO AROUND 3
MILES (MVFR OR BRIEFLY IFR IN SOME LOCATIONS) AFTER ABOUT 24/15Z
ONLY HIGH CLOUDS LEFT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS AND EAST OF
THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. WINDS INITIALLY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST 10G20 KNOTS OR SO EARLY THIS EVENING...DECREASING TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT (PERHAPS SOME HIGHER GUSTS NEAR THE
COAST).  DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...
GENERALLY AROUND 10 KNOTS. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      58  71  42  59  40 /  10  10  10  20  30
PENSACOLA   63  75  45  57  42 /  10  10  10  40  40
DESTIN      67  73  51  57  46 /  20  10  10  40  50
EVERGREEN   57  70  41  58  39 /  10  10  10  20  30
WAYNESBORO  53  67  36  58  36 /  10  10  10  05  20
CAMDEN      54  68  39  57  38 /  10  10  10  10  20
CRESTVIEW   59  75  43  58  39 /  20  10  10  30  50

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO
     PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL
     TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...NORTHERN
     MOBILE BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...PERDIDO BAY...SOUTHERN
     MOBILE BAY...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMOB 232330 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
530 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.AVIATION...
00Z ISSUANCE UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS BEGIN THE PERIOD THEN A LOW CEILING IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP NEAR 05Z ALONG WITH LIGHT FOG. BASED ON THE LATEST
DATA...THIS CEILING HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE LOWER THAN EARLIER
EXPECTED SO WILL BEGIN WITH IFR CEILINGS AT 05Z. THE LOW CEILING
PERSISTS UNTIL CLEARING MID MONDAY MORNING. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
NEAR 10 KNOTS BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST MID TO LATE MONDAY MORNING AS
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. /29

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 511 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED TO CANCEL THE WIND ADVISORY AS WIND GUSTS HAVE
SUBSIDED AND LIKEWISE CANCELLED THE GALE WARNING FOR THE SAME REASON.
MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS THIS EVENING AS SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY
LOCATED EAST OF THE AREA...BUT KEPT SMALL POPS IN MAINLY FOR A SMALL
PORTION OF THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE LATE TONIGHT AS SOME
ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP IN THIS AREA. MADE ADJUSTMENTS
TO CLOUD COVER BASED ON LATEST TRENDS AND OTHER SMALL ADJUSTMENTS. /29

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN
MOVING EAST OF THE FCST AREA AT THIS TIME. BROKEN LINE OF STORMS
MOVED ACROSS THE FCST AREA THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH A
FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS AND SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS
ISSUED. DID HAVE SPORADIC WIND DAMAGE REPORTS...PRIMARILY FROM THE
OPP AREA (SEE LOCAL STORM REPORTS). WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES
MID LEVEL DRY AIR QUICKLY MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST...BUT
LOWER LEVELS WONT SIGNIFICANTLY DRY UNTIL THE ACTUAL FRONTAL PASSAGE
LATER TONIGHT. SFC LOW LIFTING UP ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WRAP AROUND MAINTAINING A
BKN/OVC LOW LEVEL CLOUD BASE THIS EVENING. WITH THE RAIN WET GROUND
AND STILL MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES
TONIGHT...EXPECT TO HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE FCST
AREA AROUND DAYBREAK MONDAY...AND BE EAST OF THE AREA BY NOON.
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT...
THEN BASICALLY A TEMP AND WIND FCST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MAINTAINED
THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL LET IT EXPIRE AS
ADVERTISED AT 6 PM. MAYBE A FEW LINGERING LIGHT PATCHES OF RAIN OVER
FAR EASTERN ZONES THIS EVENING...OTHERWISE A DRY SHORT TERM FCST.
LOW TEMPS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER 50S WELL INLAND...RAINING TO THE
LOWER 60S TO THE SOUTH AND ALONG THE COAST. HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE
MID 60S OVER NORTHWEST WHERE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE
EARLY PART OF THE DAY...RANGING TO THE MIDDLE 70S SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES WHERE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT DEVELOPS A LITTLE
LATER IN THE DAY. COLDER MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BEHIND
THE FRONT... LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S OVER INTERIOR COUNTIES
AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S ALONG THE COAST. 12/DS

(TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT)...A 160 KNOT JET STREAK AT 300 MB WILL
FOLLOW THE ONE SEEN THIS MORNING PLUNGING SOUTHEAST FROM OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE NEW FEATURE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE ROCKIES
MONDAY MORNING DIGGING A DEEP UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST TO SOUTHEAST TEXAS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS RELATIVELY
SHORT WAVELENGTH UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND PAST US BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A COLD
SURFACE HIGH WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO AND
RIDGING INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS
OCCURS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE RESULTING LOW WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF AND REACH THE EASTERN GULF BY
TUESDAY EVENING CROSSING INTO THE CENTRAL PENINSULAR GULF COAST OF
FLORIDA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A DEEP LAYER CHILLING TREND
TO THE REGION STARTING EARLY TUESDAY AS THE GULF LOW RUNS ALONG A SW
TO NE TRACK SOUTH OF US BRINGING ABOUT INCREASED COLD AIR ADVECTION.
PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE UPPER TROUGH...HIGHS ACROSS OUR REGION
WILL BE NEAR 60 WHICH IS 10 TO 13 DEGREES BELOW THE MONTHLY MEAN WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S OR 5 TO 8
DEGREES BELOW THE MONTHLY MEAN. WE HAVE EVALUATED THE SOUNDINGS FROM
THE NAM...GFS...AND EURO THOROUGHLY...AND HAVE DETERMINED WE WILL SEE
ONLY COLD RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT AND NOT MUCH ELSE. 77/BD

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...WAVE NUMBER 5 PATTERN SHOWS A
WELL ESTABLISHED 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE UPPER PLAINS. THE TROUGH WILL
FLATTEN OUT INTO A MUCH LONGER WAVEFORM BRINGING UPPER ZONAL FLOW TO
THE REGION. THAT WOULD OCCUR BY THURSDAY WITH A SURFACE HIGH BUILDING IN
FROM THE WEST DOMINATING THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTHEAST STATES
THROUGH SUNDAY. THUS IT WILL BE DRY AND COOL WITH HIGHS FROM THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S...AND LOWS FROM THE MID 30S INLAND TO THE MID
40S COASTAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INCREASING INTO THE
MID 40S TO MID 50S SUNDAY NIGHT. 77/BD

MARINE...TAIL END OF PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE MOVING EAST OF THE
MARINE AREA BY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. STRONG SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT DROPPING BELOW
GALE FORCE (WITH REGARD TO GUSTS). AS SUCH...WILL LET THE GALE
WARNING EXPIRE AT 6 PM THIS EVENING AS PREVIOUSLY INDICATED...BUT
MAINTAIN THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH NOON MONDAY. DURING THE
DAY ON MONDAY...WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND BECOME MORE NORTHERLY MONDAY NIGHT WHILE
BRIEFLY SUBSIDING. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK...
INCREASING AGAIN ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LIKELY
DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF AND MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARD THE
CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA. DURING THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK... THE
OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUES BUT WEAKENS CONSIDERABLY. SEAS INITIALLY UP
TO AROUND 9 FEET TONIGHT...SUBSIDING TO AROUND 6 FEET BY
WEDNESDAY...THEN 1-2 FEET LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. 12/DS

AVIATION...
24/00Z TAF ISSUANCE...CEILINGS GENERALLY AT THE LOWER LIMIT OF VFR
THROUGH TONIGHT (AROUND 4000 FEET)...BUT IN SOME PLACES LOWER TO
MVFR IN PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT. THE FOG MAY LIMIT SFC VSBY TO AROUND 3
MILES (MVFR OR BRIEFLY IFR IN SOME LOCATIONS) AFTER ABOUT 24/15Z
ONLY HIGH CLOUDS LEFT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS AND EAST OF
THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. WINDS INITIALLY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST 10G20 KNOTS OR SO EARLY THIS EVENING...DECREASING TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT (PERHAPS SOME HIGHER GUSTS NEAR THE
COAST).  DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...
GENERALLY AROUND 10 KNOTS. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      58  71  42  59  40 /  10  10  10  20  30
PENSACOLA   63  75  45  57  42 /  10  10  10  40  40
DESTIN      67  73  51  57  46 /  20  10  10  40  50
EVERGREEN   57  70  41  58  39 /  10  10  10  20  30
WAYNESBORO  53  67  36  58  36 /  10  10  10  05  20
CAMDEN      54  68  39  57  38 /  10  10  10  10  20
CRESTVIEW   59  75  43  58  39 /  20  10  10  30  50

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO
     PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL
     TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...NORTHERN
     MOBILE BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...PERDIDO BAY...SOUTHERN
     MOBILE BAY...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...

&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KMOB 232330 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
530 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.AVIATION...
00Z ISSUANCE UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS BEGIN THE PERIOD THEN A LOW CEILING IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP NEAR 05Z ALONG WITH LIGHT FOG. BASED ON THE LATEST
DATA...THIS CEILING HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE LOWER THAN EARLIER
EXPECTED SO WILL BEGIN WITH IFR CEILINGS AT 05Z. THE LOW CEILING
PERSISTS UNTIL CLEARING MID MONDAY MORNING. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
NEAR 10 KNOTS BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST MID TO LATE MONDAY MORNING AS
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. /29

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 511 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED TO CANCEL THE WIND ADVISORY AS WIND GUSTS HAVE
SUBSIDED AND LIKEWISE CANCELLED THE GALE WARNING FOR THE SAME REASON.
MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS THIS EVENING AS SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY
LOCATED EAST OF THE AREA...BUT KEPT SMALL POPS IN MAINLY FOR A SMALL
PORTION OF THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE LATE TONIGHT AS SOME
ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP IN THIS AREA. MADE ADJUSTMENTS
TO CLOUD COVER BASED ON LATEST TRENDS AND OTHER SMALL ADJUSTMENTS. /29

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN
MOVING EAST OF THE FCST AREA AT THIS TIME. BROKEN LINE OF STORMS
MOVED ACROSS THE FCST AREA THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH A
FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS AND SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS
ISSUED. DID HAVE SPORADIC WIND DAMAGE REPORTS...PRIMARILY FROM THE
OPP AREA (SEE LOCAL STORM REPORTS). WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES
MID LEVEL DRY AIR QUICKLY MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST...BUT
LOWER LEVELS WONT SIGNIFICANTLY DRY UNTIL THE ACTUAL FRONTAL PASSAGE
LATER TONIGHT. SFC LOW LIFTING UP ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WRAP AROUND MAINTAINING A
BKN/OVC LOW LEVEL CLOUD BASE THIS EVENING. WITH THE RAIN WET GROUND
AND STILL MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES
TONIGHT...EXPECT TO HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE FCST
AREA AROUND DAYBREAK MONDAY...AND BE EAST OF THE AREA BY NOON.
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT...
THEN BASICALLY A TEMP AND WIND FCST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MAINTAINED
THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL LET IT EXPIRE AS
ADVERTISED AT 6 PM. MAYBE A FEW LINGERING LIGHT PATCHES OF RAIN OVER
FAR EASTERN ZONES THIS EVENING...OTHERWISE A DRY SHORT TERM FCST.
LOW TEMPS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER 50S WELL INLAND...RAINING TO THE
LOWER 60S TO THE SOUTH AND ALONG THE COAST. HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE
MID 60S OVER NORTHWEST WHERE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE
EARLY PART OF THE DAY...RANGING TO THE MIDDLE 70S SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES WHERE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT DEVELOPS A LITTLE
LATER IN THE DAY. COLDER MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BEHIND
THE FRONT... LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S OVER INTERIOR COUNTIES
AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S ALONG THE COAST. 12/DS

(TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT)...A 160 KNOT JET STREAK AT 300 MB WILL
FOLLOW THE ONE SEEN THIS MORNING PLUNGING SOUTHEAST FROM OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE NEW FEATURE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE ROCKIES
MONDAY MORNING DIGGING A DEEP UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST TO SOUTHEAST TEXAS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS RELATIVELY
SHORT WAVELENGTH UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND PAST US BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A COLD
SURFACE HIGH WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO AND
RIDGING INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS
OCCURS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE RESULTING LOW WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF AND REACH THE EASTERN GULF BY
TUESDAY EVENING CROSSING INTO THE CENTRAL PENINSULAR GULF COAST OF
FLORIDA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A DEEP LAYER CHILLING TREND
TO THE REGION STARTING EARLY TUESDAY AS THE GULF LOW RUNS ALONG A SW
TO NE TRACK SOUTH OF US BRINGING ABOUT INCREASED COLD AIR ADVECTION.
PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE UPPER TROUGH...HIGHS ACROSS OUR REGION
WILL BE NEAR 60 WHICH IS 10 TO 13 DEGREES BELOW THE MONTHLY MEAN WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S OR 5 TO 8
DEGREES BELOW THE MONTHLY MEAN. WE HAVE EVALUATED THE SOUNDINGS FROM
THE NAM...GFS...AND EURO THOROUGHLY...AND HAVE DETERMINED WE WILL SEE
ONLY COLD RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT AND NOT MUCH ELSE. 77/BD

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...WAVE NUMBER 5 PATTERN SHOWS A
WELL ESTABLISHED 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE UPPER PLAINS. THE TROUGH WILL
FLATTEN OUT INTO A MUCH LONGER WAVEFORM BRINGING UPPER ZONAL FLOW TO
THE REGION. THAT WOULD OCCUR BY THURSDAY WITH A SURFACE HIGH BUILDING IN
FROM THE WEST DOMINATING THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTHEAST STATES
THROUGH SUNDAY. THUS IT WILL BE DRY AND COOL WITH HIGHS FROM THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S...AND LOWS FROM THE MID 30S INLAND TO THE MID
40S COASTAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INCREASING INTO THE
MID 40S TO MID 50S SUNDAY NIGHT. 77/BD

MARINE...TAIL END OF PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE MOVING EAST OF THE
MARINE AREA BY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. STRONG SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT DROPPING BELOW
GALE FORCE (WITH REGARD TO GUSTS). AS SUCH...WILL LET THE GALE
WARNING EXPIRE AT 6 PM THIS EVENING AS PREVIOUSLY INDICATED...BUT
MAINTAIN THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH NOON MONDAY. DURING THE
DAY ON MONDAY...WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND BECOME MORE NORTHERLY MONDAY NIGHT WHILE
BRIEFLY SUBSIDING. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK...
INCREASING AGAIN ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LIKELY
DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF AND MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARD THE
CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA. DURING THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK... THE
OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUES BUT WEAKENS CONSIDERABLY. SEAS INITIALLY UP
TO AROUND 9 FEET TONIGHT...SUBSIDING TO AROUND 6 FEET BY
WEDNESDAY...THEN 1-2 FEET LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. 12/DS

AVIATION...
24/00Z TAF ISSUANCE...CEILINGS GENERALLY AT THE LOWER LIMIT OF VFR
THROUGH TONIGHT (AROUND 4000 FEET)...BUT IN SOME PLACES LOWER TO
MVFR IN PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT. THE FOG MAY LIMIT SFC VSBY TO AROUND 3
MILES (MVFR OR BRIEFLY IFR IN SOME LOCATIONS) AFTER ABOUT 24/15Z
ONLY HIGH CLOUDS LEFT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS AND EAST OF
THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. WINDS INITIALLY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST 10G20 KNOTS OR SO EARLY THIS EVENING...DECREASING TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT (PERHAPS SOME HIGHER GUSTS NEAR THE
COAST).  DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...
GENERALLY AROUND 10 KNOTS. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      58  71  42  59  40 /  10  10  10  20  30
PENSACOLA   63  75  45  57  42 /  10  10  10  40  40
DESTIN      67  73  51  57  46 /  20  10  10  40  50
EVERGREEN   57  70  41  58  39 /  10  10  10  20  30
WAYNESBORO  53  67  36  58  36 /  10  10  10  05  20
CAMDEN      54  68  39  57  38 /  10  10  10  10  20
CRESTVIEW   59  75  43  58  39 /  20  10  10  30  50

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO
     PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL
     TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...NORTHERN
     MOBILE BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...PERDIDO BAY...SOUTHERN
     MOBILE BAY...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMOB 232311 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
511 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED TO CANCEL THE WIND ADVISORY AS WIND GUSTS HAVE
SUBSIDED AND LIKEWISE CANCELLED THE GALE WARNING FOR THE SAME REASON.
MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS THIS EVENING AS SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY
LOCATED EAST OF THE AREA...BUT KEPT SMALL POPS IN MAINLY FOR A SMALL
PORTION OF THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE LATE TONIGHT AS SOME
ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP IN THIS AREA. MADE ADJUSTMENTS
TO CLOUD COVER BASED ON LATEST TRENDS AND OTHER SMALL ADJUSTMENTS. /29

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN
MOVING EAST OF THE FCST AREA AT THIS TIME. BROKEN LINE OF STORMS
MOVED ACROSS THE FCST AREA THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH A
FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS AND SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS
ISSUED. DID HAVE SPORADIC WIND DAMAGE REPORTS...PRIMARILY FROM THE
OPP AREA (SEE LOCAL STORM REPORTS). WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES
MID LEVEL DRY AIR QUICKLY MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST...BUT
LOWER LEVELS WONT SIGNIFICANTLY DRY UNTIL THE ACTUAL FRONTAL PASSAGE
LATER TONIGHT. SFC LOW LIFTING UP ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WRAP AROUND MAINTAINING A
BKN/OVC LOW LEVEL CLOUD BASE THIS EVENING. WITH THE RAIN WET GROUND
AND STILL MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES
TONIGHT...EXPECT TO HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE FCST
AREA AROUND DAYBREAK MONDAY...AND BE EAST OF THE AREA BY NOON.
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT...
THEN BASICALLY A TEMP AND WIND FCST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MAINTAINED
THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL LET IT EXPIRE AS
ADVERTISED AT 6 PM. MAYBE A FEW LINGERING LIGHT PATCHES OF RAIN OVER
FAR EASTERN ZONES THIS EVENING...OTHERWISE A DRY SHORT TERM FCST.
LOW TEMPS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER 50S WELL INLAND...RAINING TO THE
LOWER 60S TO THE SOUTH AND ALONG THE COAST. HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE
MID 60S OVER NORTHWEST WHERE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE
EARLY PART OF THE DAY...RANGING TO THE MIDDLE 70S SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES WHERE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT DEVELOPS A LITTLE
LATER IN THE DAY. COLDER MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BEHIND
THE FRONT... LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S OVER INTERIOR COUNTIES
AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S ALONG THE COAST. 12/DS

(TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT)...A 160 KNOT JET STREAK AT 300 MB WILL
FOLLOW THE ONE SEEN THIS MORNING PLUNGING SOUTHEAST FROM OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE NEW FEATURE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE ROCKIES
MONDAY MORNING DIGGING A DEEP UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST TO SOUTHEAST TEXAS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS RELATIVELY
SHORT WAVELENGTH UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND PAST US BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A COLD
SURFACE HIGH WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO AND
RIDGING INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS
OCCURS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE RESULTING LOW WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF AND REACH THE EASTERN GULF BY
TUESDAY EVENING CROSSING INTO THE CENTRAL PENINSULAR GULF COAST OF
FLORIDA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A DEEP LAYER CHILLING TREND
TO THE REGION STARTING EARLY TUESDAY AS THE GULF LOW RUNS ALONG A SW
TO NE TRACK SOUTH OF US BRINGING ABOUT INCREASED COLD AIR ADVECTION.
PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE UPPER TROUGH...HIGHS ACROSS OUR REGION
WILL BE NEAR 60 WHICH IS 10 TO 13 DEGREES BELOW THE MONTHLY MEAN WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S OR 5 TO 8
DEGREES BELOW THE MONTHLY MEAN. WE HAVE EVALUATED THE SOUNDINGS FROM
THE NAM...GFS...AND EURO THOROUGHLY...AND HAVE DETERMINED WE WILL SEE
ONLY COLD RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT AND NOT MUCH ELSE. 77/BD

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...WAVE NUMBER 5 PATTERN SHOWS A
WELL ESTABLISHED 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE UPPER PLAINS. THE TROUGH WILL
FLATTEN OUT INTO A MUCH LONGER WAVEFORM BRINGING UPPER ZONAL FLOW TO
THE REGION. THAT WOULD OCCUR BY THURSDAY WITH A SURFACE HIGH BUILDING IN
FROM THE WEST DOMINATING THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTHEAST STATES
THROUGH SUNDAY. THUS IT WILL BE DRY AND COOL WITH HIGHS FROM THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S...AND LOWS FROM THE MID 30S INLAND TO THE MID
40S COASTAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INCREASING INTO THE
MID 40S TO MID 50S SUNDAY NIGHT. 77/BD

MARINE...TAIL END OF PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE MOVING EAST OF THE
MARINE AREA BY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. STRONG SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT DROPPING BELOW
GALE FORCE (WITH REGARD TO GUSTS). AS SUCH...WILL LET THE GALE
WARNING EXPIRE AT 6 PM THIS EVENING AS PREVIOUSLY INDICATED...BUT
MAINTAIN THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH NOON MONDAY. DURING THE
DAY ON MONDAY...WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND BECOME MORE NORTHERLY MONDAY NIGHT WHILE
BRIEFLY SUBSIDING. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK...
INCREASING AGAIN ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LIKELY
DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF AND MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARD THE
CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA. DURING THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK... THE
OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUES BUT WEAKENS CONSIDERABLY. SEAS INITIALLY UP
TO AROUND 9 FEET TONIGHT...SUBSIDING TO AROUND 6 FEET BY
WEDNESDAY...THEN 1-2 FEET LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. 12/DS

AVIATION...
24/00Z TAF ISSUANCE...CEILINGS GENERALLY AT THE LOWER LIMIT OF VFR
THROUGH TONIGHT (AROUND 4000 FEET)...BUT IN SOME PLACES LOWER TO
MVFR IN PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT. THE FOG MAY LIMIT SFC VSBY TO AROUND 3
MILES (MVFR OR BRIEFLY IFR IN SOME LOCATIONS) AFTER ABOUT 24/15Z
ONLY HIGH CLOUDS LEFT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS AND EAST OF
THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. WINDS INITIALLY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST 10G20 KNOTS OR SO EARLY THIS EVENING...DECREASING TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT (PERHAPS SOME HIGHER GUSTS NEAR THE
COAST).  DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...
GENERALLY AROUND 10 KNOTS. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      58  71  42  59  40 /  10  10  10  20  30
PENSACOLA   63  75  45  57  42 /  10  10  10  40  40
DESTIN      67  73  51  57  46 /  20  10  10  40  50
EVERGREEN   57  70  41  58  39 /  10  10  10  20  30
WAYNESBORO  53  67  36  58  36 /  10  10  10  05  20
CAMDEN      54  68  39  57  38 /  10  10  10  10  20
CRESTVIEW   59  75  43  58  39 /  20  10  10  30  50

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO
     PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL
     TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...NORTHERN
     MOBILE BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...PERDIDO BAY...SOUTHERN
     MOBILE BAY...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...

&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KMOB 232311 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
511 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED TO CANCEL THE WIND ADVISORY AS WIND GUSTS HAVE
SUBSIDED AND LIKEWISE CANCELLED THE GALE WARNING FOR THE SAME REASON.
MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS THIS EVENING AS SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY
LOCATED EAST OF THE AREA...BUT KEPT SMALL POPS IN MAINLY FOR A SMALL
PORTION OF THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE LATE TONIGHT AS SOME
ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP IN THIS AREA. MADE ADJUSTMENTS
TO CLOUD COVER BASED ON LATEST TRENDS AND OTHER SMALL ADJUSTMENTS. /29

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN
MOVING EAST OF THE FCST AREA AT THIS TIME. BROKEN LINE OF STORMS
MOVED ACROSS THE FCST AREA THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH A
FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS AND SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS
ISSUED. DID HAVE SPORADIC WIND DAMAGE REPORTS...PRIMARILY FROM THE
OPP AREA (SEE LOCAL STORM REPORTS). WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES
MID LEVEL DRY AIR QUICKLY MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST...BUT
LOWER LEVELS WONT SIGNIFICANTLY DRY UNTIL THE ACTUAL FRONTAL PASSAGE
LATER TONIGHT. SFC LOW LIFTING UP ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WRAP AROUND MAINTAINING A
BKN/OVC LOW LEVEL CLOUD BASE THIS EVENING. WITH THE RAIN WET GROUND
AND STILL MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES
TONIGHT...EXPECT TO HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE FCST
AREA AROUND DAYBREAK MONDAY...AND BE EAST OF THE AREA BY NOON.
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT...
THEN BASICALLY A TEMP AND WIND FCST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MAINTAINED
THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL LET IT EXPIRE AS
ADVERTISED AT 6 PM. MAYBE A FEW LINGERING LIGHT PATCHES OF RAIN OVER
FAR EASTERN ZONES THIS EVENING...OTHERWISE A DRY SHORT TERM FCST.
LOW TEMPS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER 50S WELL INLAND...RAINING TO THE
LOWER 60S TO THE SOUTH AND ALONG THE COAST. HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE
MID 60S OVER NORTHWEST WHERE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE
EARLY PART OF THE DAY...RANGING TO THE MIDDLE 70S SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES WHERE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT DEVELOPS A LITTLE
LATER IN THE DAY. COLDER MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BEHIND
THE FRONT... LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S OVER INTERIOR COUNTIES
AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S ALONG THE COAST. 12/DS

(TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT)...A 160 KNOT JET STREAK AT 300 MB WILL
FOLLOW THE ONE SEEN THIS MORNING PLUNGING SOUTHEAST FROM OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE NEW FEATURE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE ROCKIES
MONDAY MORNING DIGGING A DEEP UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST TO SOUTHEAST TEXAS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS RELATIVELY
SHORT WAVELENGTH UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND PAST US BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A COLD
SURFACE HIGH WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO AND
RIDGING INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS
OCCURS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE RESULTING LOW WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF AND REACH THE EASTERN GULF BY
TUESDAY EVENING CROSSING INTO THE CENTRAL PENINSULAR GULF COAST OF
FLORIDA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A DEEP LAYER CHILLING TREND
TO THE REGION STARTING EARLY TUESDAY AS THE GULF LOW RUNS ALONG A SW
TO NE TRACK SOUTH OF US BRINGING ABOUT INCREASED COLD AIR ADVECTION.
PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE UPPER TROUGH...HIGHS ACROSS OUR REGION
WILL BE NEAR 60 WHICH IS 10 TO 13 DEGREES BELOW THE MONTHLY MEAN WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S OR 5 TO 8
DEGREES BELOW THE MONTHLY MEAN. WE HAVE EVALUATED THE SOUNDINGS FROM
THE NAM...GFS...AND EURO THOROUGHLY...AND HAVE DETERMINED WE WILL SEE
ONLY COLD RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT AND NOT MUCH ELSE. 77/BD

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...WAVE NUMBER 5 PATTERN SHOWS A
WELL ESTABLISHED 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE UPPER PLAINS. THE TROUGH WILL
FLATTEN OUT INTO A MUCH LONGER WAVEFORM BRINGING UPPER ZONAL FLOW TO
THE REGION. THAT WOULD OCCUR BY THURSDAY WITH A SURFACE HIGH BUILDING IN
FROM THE WEST DOMINATING THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTHEAST STATES
THROUGH SUNDAY. THUS IT WILL BE DRY AND COOL WITH HIGHS FROM THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S...AND LOWS FROM THE MID 30S INLAND TO THE MID
40S COASTAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INCREASING INTO THE
MID 40S TO MID 50S SUNDAY NIGHT. 77/BD

MARINE...TAIL END OF PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE MOVING EAST OF THE
MARINE AREA BY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. STRONG SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT DROPPING BELOW
GALE FORCE (WITH REGARD TO GUSTS). AS SUCH...WILL LET THE GALE
WARNING EXPIRE AT 6 PM THIS EVENING AS PREVIOUSLY INDICATED...BUT
MAINTAIN THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH NOON MONDAY. DURING THE
DAY ON MONDAY...WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND BECOME MORE NORTHERLY MONDAY NIGHT WHILE
BRIEFLY SUBSIDING. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK...
INCREASING AGAIN ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LIKELY
DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF AND MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARD THE
CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA. DURING THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK... THE
OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUES BUT WEAKENS CONSIDERABLY. SEAS INITIALLY UP
TO AROUND 9 FEET TONIGHT...SUBSIDING TO AROUND 6 FEET BY
WEDNESDAY...THEN 1-2 FEET LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. 12/DS

AVIATION...
24/00Z TAF ISSUANCE...CEILINGS GENERALLY AT THE LOWER LIMIT OF VFR
THROUGH TONIGHT (AROUND 4000 FEET)...BUT IN SOME PLACES LOWER TO
MVFR IN PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT. THE FOG MAY LIMIT SFC VSBY TO AROUND 3
MILES (MVFR OR BRIEFLY IFR IN SOME LOCATIONS) AFTER ABOUT 24/15Z
ONLY HIGH CLOUDS LEFT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS AND EAST OF
THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. WINDS INITIALLY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST 10G20 KNOTS OR SO EARLY THIS EVENING...DECREASING TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT (PERHAPS SOME HIGHER GUSTS NEAR THE
COAST).  DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...
GENERALLY AROUND 10 KNOTS. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      58  71  42  59  40 /  10  10  10  20  30
PENSACOLA   63  75  45  57  42 /  10  10  10  40  40
DESTIN      67  73  51  57  46 /  20  10  10  40  50
EVERGREEN   57  70  41  58  39 /  10  10  10  20  30
WAYNESBORO  53  67  36  58  36 /  10  10  10  05  20
CAMDEN      54  68  39  57  38 /  10  10  10  10  20
CRESTVIEW   59  75  43  58  39 /  20  10  10  30  50

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO
     PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL
     TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...NORTHERN
     MOBILE BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...PERDIDO BAY...SOUTHERN
     MOBILE BAY...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMOB 232152
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
352 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN
MOVING EAST OF THE FCST AREA AT THIS TIME. BROKEN LINE OF STORMS
MOVED ACROSS THE FCST AREA THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH A
FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS AND SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS
ISSUED. DID HAVE SPORADIC WIND DAMAGE REPORTS...PRIMARILY FROM THE
OPP AREA (SEE LOCAL STORM REPORTS). WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES
MID LEVEL DRY AIR QUICKLY MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST...BUT
LOWER LEVELS WONT SIGNIFICANTLY DRY UNTIL THE ACTUAL FRONTAL PASSAGE
LATER TONIGHT. SFC LOW LIFTING UP ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WRAP AROUND MAINTAINING A
BKN/OVC LOW LEVEL CLOUD BASE THIS EVENING. WITH THE RAIN WET GROUND
AND STILL MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES
TONIGHT...EXPECT TO HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE FCST
AREA AROUND DAYBREAK MONDAY...AND BE EAST OF THE AREA BY NOON.
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT...
THEN BASICALLY A TEMP AND WIND FCST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MAINTAINED
THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL LET IT EXPIRE AS
ADVERTISED AT 6 PM. MAYBE A FEW LINGERING LIGHT PATCHES OF RAIN OVER
FAR EASTERN ZONES THIS EVENING...OTHERWISE A DRY SHORT TERM FCST.
LOW TEMPS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER 50S WELL INLAND...RAINING TO THE
LOWER 60S TO THE SOUTH AND ALONG THE COAST. HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE
MID 60S OVER NORTHWEST WHERE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE
EARLY PART OF THE DAY...RANGING TO THE MIDDLE 70S SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES WHERE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT DEVELOPS A LITTLE
LATER IN THE DAY. COLDER MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BEHIND
THE FRONT... LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S OVER INTERIOR COUNTIES
AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S ALONG THE COAST. 12/DS

&&

.(TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT)...A 160 KNOT JET STREAK AT 300 MB WILL
FOLLOW THE ONE SEEN THIS MORNING PLUNGING SOUTHEAST FROM OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE NEW FEATURE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE ROCKIES
MONDAY MORNING DIGGING A DEEP UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST TO SOUTHEAST TEXAS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS RELATIVELY
SHORT WAVELENGTH UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND PAST US BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A COLD
SURFACE HIGH WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO AND
RIDGING INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS
OCCURS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE RESULTING LOW WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF AND REACH THE EASTERN GULF BY
TUESDAY EVENING CROSSING INTO THE CENTRAL PENINSULAR GULF COAST OF
FLORIDA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A DEEP LAYER CHILLING TREND
TO THE REGION STARTING EARLY TUESDAY AS THE GULF LOW RUNS ALONG A SW
TO NE TRACK SOUTH OF US BRINGING ABOUT INCREASED COLD AIR ADVECTION.
PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE UPPER TROUGH...HIGHS ACROSS OUR REGION
WILL BE NEAR 60 WHICH IS 10 TO 13 DEGREES BELOW THE MONTHLY MEAN WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S OR 5 TO 8
DEGREES BELOW THE MONTHLY MEAN. WE HAVE EVALUATED THE SOUNDINGS FROM
THE NAM...GFS...AND EURO THOROUGHLY...AND HAVE DETERMINED WE WILL SEE
ONLY COLD RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT AND NOT MUCH ELSE. 77/BD

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...WAVENUMBER 5 PATTERN SHOWS A
WELL ESTABLISHED 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE UPPER PLAINS. THE TROUGH WILL
FLATTEN OUT INTO A MUCH LONGER WAVEFORM BRINGING UPPER ZONAL FLOW TO
THE REGION. THAT WOULD OCCUR BY THURSDAY WITH A SURFACE HIGH BUILDING IN
FROM THE WEST DOMINATING THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTHEAST STATES
THROUGH SUNDAY. THUS IT WILL BE DRY AND COOL WITH HIGHS FROM THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S...AND LOWS FROM THE MID 30S INLAND TO THE MID
40S COASTAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INCREASING INTO THE
MID 40S TO MID 50S SUNDAY NIGHT. 77/BD

&&

.MARINE...TAIL END OF PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE MOVING EAST OF THE
MARINE AREA BY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. STRONG SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT DROPPING BELOW
GALE FORCE (WITH REGARD TO GUSTS). AS SUCH...WILL LET THE GALE
WARNING EXPIRE AT 6 PM THIS EVENING AS PREVIOUSLY INDICATED...BUT
MAINTAIN THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH NOON MONDAY. DURING THE
DAY ON MONDAY...WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND BECOME MORE NORTHERLY MONDAY NIGHT WHILE
BRIEFLY SUBSIDING. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK...
INCREASING AGAIN ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LIKELY
DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF AND MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARD THE
CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA. DURING THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK... THE
OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUES BUT WEAKENS CONSIDERABLY. SEAS INITIALLY UP
TO AROUND 9 FEET TONIGHT...SUBSIDING TO AROUND 6 FEET BY
WEDNESDAY...THEN 1-2 FEET LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. 12/DS

&&

.AVIATION...
24/00Z TAF ISSUANCE...CEILINGS GENERALLY AT THE LOWER LIMIT OF VFR
THROUGH TONIGHT (AROUND 4000 FEET)...BUT IN SOME PLACES LOWER TO
MVFR IN PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT. THE FOG MAY LIMIT SFC VSBY TO AROUND 3
MILES (MVFR OR BRIEFLY IFR IN SOME LOCATIONS) AFTER ABOUT 24/15Z
ONLY HIGH CLOUDS LEFT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS AND EAST OF
THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. WINDS INITIALLY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST 10G20 KNOTS OR SO EARLY THIS EVENING...DECREASING TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT (PERHAPS SOME HIGHER GUSTS NEAR THE
COAST).  DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...
GENERALLY AROUND 10 KNOTS. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      58  71  42  59  40 /  10  10  10  20  30
PENSACOLA   63  75  45  57  42 /  10  10  10  40  40
DESTIN      67  73  51  57  46 /  20  10  10  40  50
EVERGREEN   57  70  41  58  39 /  20  10  10  20  30
WAYNESBORO  53  67  36  58  36 /  10  10  10  05  20
CAMDEN      54  68  39  57  38 /  20  10  10  10  20
CRESTVIEW   59  75  43  58  39 /  20  10  10  30  50

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BUTLER...CHOCTAW...CLARKE...CONECUH...COVINGTON...
     CRENSHAW...ESCAMBIA...LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...
     MONROE...UPPER BALDWIN...UPPER MOBILE...WASHINGTON...
     WILCOX...

FL...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL
     ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...INLAND
     ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...INLAND SANTA ROSA...

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...

MS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     GEORGE...GREENE...PERRY...STONE...WAYNE...

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...NORTHERN MOBILE
     BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...PERDIDO BAY...SOUTHERN MOBILE
     BAY...

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL
     WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM...
     WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SUNDAY TO NOON MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA
     MS OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM
     20 TO 60 NM...

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMOB 232152
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
352 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN
MOVING EAST OF THE FCST AREA AT THIS TIME. BROKEN LINE OF STORMS
MOVED ACROSS THE FCST AREA THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH A
FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS AND SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS
ISSUED. DID HAVE SPORADIC WIND DAMAGE REPORTS...PRIMARILY FROM THE
OPP AREA (SEE LOCAL STORM REPORTS). WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES
MID LEVEL DRY AIR QUICKLY MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST...BUT
LOWER LEVELS WONT SIGNIFICANTLY DRY UNTIL THE ACTUAL FRONTAL PASSAGE
LATER TONIGHT. SFC LOW LIFTING UP ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WRAP AROUND MAINTAINING A
BKN/OVC LOW LEVEL CLOUD BASE THIS EVENING. WITH THE RAIN WET GROUND
AND STILL MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES
TONIGHT...EXPECT TO HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE FCST
AREA AROUND DAYBREAK MONDAY...AND BE EAST OF THE AREA BY NOON.
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT...
THEN BASICALLY A TEMP AND WIND FCST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MAINTAINED
THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL LET IT EXPIRE AS
ADVERTISED AT 6 PM. MAYBE A FEW LINGERING LIGHT PATCHES OF RAIN OVER
FAR EASTERN ZONES THIS EVENING...OTHERWISE A DRY SHORT TERM FCST.
LOW TEMPS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER 50S WELL INLAND...RAINING TO THE
LOWER 60S TO THE SOUTH AND ALONG THE COAST. HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE
MID 60S OVER NORTHWEST WHERE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE
EARLY PART OF THE DAY...RANGING TO THE MIDDLE 70S SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES WHERE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT DEVELOPS A LITTLE
LATER IN THE DAY. COLDER MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BEHIND
THE FRONT... LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S OVER INTERIOR COUNTIES
AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S ALONG THE COAST. 12/DS

&&

.(TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT)...A 160 KNOT JET STREAK AT 300 MB WILL
FOLLOW THE ONE SEEN THIS MORNING PLUNGING SOUTHEAST FROM OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE NEW FEATURE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE ROCKIES
MONDAY MORNING DIGGING A DEEP UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST TO SOUTHEAST TEXAS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS RELATIVELY
SHORT WAVELENGTH UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND PAST US BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A COLD
SURFACE HIGH WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO AND
RIDGING INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS
OCCURS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE RESULTING LOW WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF AND REACH THE EASTERN GULF BY
TUESDAY EVENING CROSSING INTO THE CENTRAL PENINSULAR GULF COAST OF
FLORIDA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A DEEP LAYER CHILLING TREND
TO THE REGION STARTING EARLY TUESDAY AS THE GULF LOW RUNS ALONG A SW
TO NE TRACK SOUTH OF US BRINGING ABOUT INCREASED COLD AIR ADVECTION.
PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE UPPER TROUGH...HIGHS ACROSS OUR REGION
WILL BE NEAR 60 WHICH IS 10 TO 13 DEGREES BELOW THE MONTHLY MEAN WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S OR 5 TO 8
DEGREES BELOW THE MONTHLY MEAN. WE HAVE EVALUATED THE SOUNDINGS FROM
THE NAM...GFS...AND EURO THOROUGHLY...AND HAVE DETERMINED WE WILL SEE
ONLY COLD RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT AND NOT MUCH ELSE. 77/BD

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...WAVENUMBER 5 PATTERN SHOWS A
WELL ESTABLISHED 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE UPPER PLAINS. THE TROUGH WILL
FLATTEN OUT INTO A MUCH LONGER WAVEFORM BRINGING UPPER ZONAL FLOW TO
THE REGION. THAT WOULD OCCUR BY THURSDAY WITH A SURFACE HIGH BUILDING IN
FROM THE WEST DOMINATING THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTHEAST STATES
THROUGH SUNDAY. THUS IT WILL BE DRY AND COOL WITH HIGHS FROM THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S...AND LOWS FROM THE MID 30S INLAND TO THE MID
40S COASTAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INCREASING INTO THE
MID 40S TO MID 50S SUNDAY NIGHT. 77/BD

&&

.MARINE...TAIL END OF PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE MOVING EAST OF THE
MARINE AREA BY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. STRONG SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT DROPPING BELOW
GALE FORCE (WITH REGARD TO GUSTS). AS SUCH...WILL LET THE GALE
WARNING EXPIRE AT 6 PM THIS EVENING AS PREVIOUSLY INDICATED...BUT
MAINTAIN THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH NOON MONDAY. DURING THE
DAY ON MONDAY...WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND BECOME MORE NORTHERLY MONDAY NIGHT WHILE
BRIEFLY SUBSIDING. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK...
INCREASING AGAIN ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LIKELY
DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF AND MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARD THE
CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA. DURING THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK... THE
OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUES BUT WEAKENS CONSIDERABLY. SEAS INITIALLY UP
TO AROUND 9 FEET TONIGHT...SUBSIDING TO AROUND 6 FEET BY
WEDNESDAY...THEN 1-2 FEET LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. 12/DS

&&

.AVIATION...
24/00Z TAF ISSUANCE...CEILINGS GENERALLY AT THE LOWER LIMIT OF VFR
THROUGH TONIGHT (AROUND 4000 FEET)...BUT IN SOME PLACES LOWER TO
MVFR IN PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT. THE FOG MAY LIMIT SFC VSBY TO AROUND 3
MILES (MVFR OR BRIEFLY IFR IN SOME LOCATIONS) AFTER ABOUT 24/15Z
ONLY HIGH CLOUDS LEFT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS AND EAST OF
THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. WINDS INITIALLY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST 10G20 KNOTS OR SO EARLY THIS EVENING...DECREASING TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT (PERHAPS SOME HIGHER GUSTS NEAR THE
COAST).  DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...
GENERALLY AROUND 10 KNOTS. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      58  71  42  59  40 /  10  10  10  20  30
PENSACOLA   63  75  45  57  42 /  10  10  10  40  40
DESTIN      67  73  51  57  46 /  20  10  10  40  50
EVERGREEN   57  70  41  58  39 /  20  10  10  20  30
WAYNESBORO  53  67  36  58  36 /  10  10  10  05  20
CAMDEN      54  68  39  57  38 /  20  10  10  10  20
CRESTVIEW   59  75  43  58  39 /  20  10  10  30  50

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BUTLER...CHOCTAW...CLARKE...CONECUH...COVINGTON...
     CRENSHAW...ESCAMBIA...LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...
     MONROE...UPPER BALDWIN...UPPER MOBILE...WASHINGTON...
     WILCOX...

FL...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL
     ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...INLAND
     ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...INLAND SANTA ROSA...

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...

MS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     GEORGE...GREENE...PERRY...STONE...WAYNE...

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...NORTHERN MOBILE
     BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...PERDIDO BAY...SOUTHERN MOBILE
     BAY...

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL
     WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM...
     WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SUNDAY TO NOON MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA
     MS OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM
     20 TO 60 NM...

&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KMOB 232152
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
352 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN
MOVING EAST OF THE FCST AREA AT THIS TIME. BROKEN LINE OF STORMS
MOVED ACROSS THE FCST AREA THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH A
FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS AND SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS
ISSUED. DID HAVE SPORADIC WIND DAMAGE REPORTS...PRIMARILY FROM THE
OPP AREA (SEE LOCAL STORM REPORTS). WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES
MID LEVEL DRY AIR QUICKLY MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST...BUT
LOWER LEVELS WONT SIGNIFICANTLY DRY UNTIL THE ACTUAL FRONTAL PASSAGE
LATER TONIGHT. SFC LOW LIFTING UP ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WRAP AROUND MAINTAINING A
BKN/OVC LOW LEVEL CLOUD BASE THIS EVENING. WITH THE RAIN WET GROUND
AND STILL MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES
TONIGHT...EXPECT TO HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE FCST
AREA AROUND DAYBREAK MONDAY...AND BE EAST OF THE AREA BY NOON.
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT...
THEN BASICALLY A TEMP AND WIND FCST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MAINTAINED
THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL LET IT EXPIRE AS
ADVERTISED AT 6 PM. MAYBE A FEW LINGERING LIGHT PATCHES OF RAIN OVER
FAR EASTERN ZONES THIS EVENING...OTHERWISE A DRY SHORT TERM FCST.
LOW TEMPS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER 50S WELL INLAND...RAINING TO THE
LOWER 60S TO THE SOUTH AND ALONG THE COAST. HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE
MID 60S OVER NORTHWEST WHERE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE
EARLY PART OF THE DAY...RANGING TO THE MIDDLE 70S SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES WHERE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT DEVELOPS A LITTLE
LATER IN THE DAY. COLDER MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BEHIND
THE FRONT... LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S OVER INTERIOR COUNTIES
AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S ALONG THE COAST. 12/DS

&&

.(TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT)...A 160 KNOT JET STREAK AT 300 MB WILL
FOLLOW THE ONE SEEN THIS MORNING PLUNGING SOUTHEAST FROM OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE NEW FEATURE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE ROCKIES
MONDAY MORNING DIGGING A DEEP UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST TO SOUTHEAST TEXAS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS RELATIVELY
SHORT WAVELENGTH UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND PAST US BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A COLD
SURFACE HIGH WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO AND
RIDGING INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS
OCCURS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE RESULTING LOW WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF AND REACH THE EASTERN GULF BY
TUESDAY EVENING CROSSING INTO THE CENTRAL PENINSULAR GULF COAST OF
FLORIDA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A DEEP LAYER CHILLING TREND
TO THE REGION STARTING EARLY TUESDAY AS THE GULF LOW RUNS ALONG A SW
TO NE TRACK SOUTH OF US BRINGING ABOUT INCREASED COLD AIR ADVECTION.
PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE UPPER TROUGH...HIGHS ACROSS OUR REGION
WILL BE NEAR 60 WHICH IS 10 TO 13 DEGREES BELOW THE MONTHLY MEAN WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S OR 5 TO 8
DEGREES BELOW THE MONTHLY MEAN. WE HAVE EVALUATED THE SOUNDINGS FROM
THE NAM...GFS...AND EURO THOROUGHLY...AND HAVE DETERMINED WE WILL SEE
ONLY COLD RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT AND NOT MUCH ELSE. 77/BD

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...WAVENUMBER 5 PATTERN SHOWS A
WELL ESTABLISHED 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE UPPER PLAINS. THE TROUGH WILL
FLATTEN OUT INTO A MUCH LONGER WAVEFORM BRINGING UPPER ZONAL FLOW TO
THE REGION. THAT WOULD OCCUR BY THURSDAY WITH A SURFACE HIGH BUILDING IN
FROM THE WEST DOMINATING THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTHEAST STATES
THROUGH SUNDAY. THUS IT WILL BE DRY AND COOL WITH HIGHS FROM THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S...AND LOWS FROM THE MID 30S INLAND TO THE MID
40S COASTAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INCREASING INTO THE
MID 40S TO MID 50S SUNDAY NIGHT. 77/BD

&&

.MARINE...TAIL END OF PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE MOVING EAST OF THE
MARINE AREA BY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. STRONG SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT DROPPING BELOW
GALE FORCE (WITH REGARD TO GUSTS). AS SUCH...WILL LET THE GALE
WARNING EXPIRE AT 6 PM THIS EVENING AS PREVIOUSLY INDICATED...BUT
MAINTAIN THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH NOON MONDAY. DURING THE
DAY ON MONDAY...WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND BECOME MORE NORTHERLY MONDAY NIGHT WHILE
BRIEFLY SUBSIDING. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK...
INCREASING AGAIN ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LIKELY
DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF AND MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARD THE
CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA. DURING THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK... THE
OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUES BUT WEAKENS CONSIDERABLY. SEAS INITIALLY UP
TO AROUND 9 FEET TONIGHT...SUBSIDING TO AROUND 6 FEET BY
WEDNESDAY...THEN 1-2 FEET LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. 12/DS

&&

.AVIATION...
24/00Z TAF ISSUANCE...CEILINGS GENERALLY AT THE LOWER LIMIT OF VFR
THROUGH TONIGHT (AROUND 4000 FEET)...BUT IN SOME PLACES LOWER TO
MVFR IN PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT. THE FOG MAY LIMIT SFC VSBY TO AROUND 3
MILES (MVFR OR BRIEFLY IFR IN SOME LOCATIONS) AFTER ABOUT 24/15Z
ONLY HIGH CLOUDS LEFT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS AND EAST OF
THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. WINDS INITIALLY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST 10G20 KNOTS OR SO EARLY THIS EVENING...DECREASING TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT (PERHAPS SOME HIGHER GUSTS NEAR THE
COAST).  DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...
GENERALLY AROUND 10 KNOTS. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      58  71  42  59  40 /  10  10  10  20  30
PENSACOLA   63  75  45  57  42 /  10  10  10  40  40
DESTIN      67  73  51  57  46 /  20  10  10  40  50
EVERGREEN   57  70  41  58  39 /  20  10  10  20  30
WAYNESBORO  53  67  36  58  36 /  10  10  10  05  20
CAMDEN      54  68  39  57  38 /  20  10  10  10  20
CRESTVIEW   59  75  43  58  39 /  20  10  10  30  50

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BUTLER...CHOCTAW...CLARKE...CONECUH...COVINGTON...
     CRENSHAW...ESCAMBIA...LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...
     MONROE...UPPER BALDWIN...UPPER MOBILE...WASHINGTON...
     WILCOX...

FL...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL
     ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...INLAND
     ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...INLAND SANTA ROSA...

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...

MS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     GEORGE...GREENE...PERRY...STONE...WAYNE...

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...NORTHERN MOBILE
     BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...PERDIDO BAY...SOUTHERN MOBILE
     BAY...

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL
     WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM...
     WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SUNDAY TO NOON MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA
     MS OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM
     20 TO 60 NM...

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMOB 232152
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
352 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN
MOVING EAST OF THE FCST AREA AT THIS TIME. BROKEN LINE OF STORMS
MOVED ACROSS THE FCST AREA THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH A
FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS AND SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS
ISSUED. DID HAVE SPORADIC WIND DAMAGE REPORTS...PRIMARILY FROM THE
OPP AREA (SEE LOCAL STORM REPORTS). WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES
MID LEVEL DRY AIR QUICKLY MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST...BUT
LOWER LEVELS WONT SIGNIFICANTLY DRY UNTIL THE ACTUAL FRONTAL PASSAGE
LATER TONIGHT. SFC LOW LIFTING UP ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WRAP AROUND MAINTAINING A
BKN/OVC LOW LEVEL CLOUD BASE THIS EVENING. WITH THE RAIN WET GROUND
AND STILL MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES
TONIGHT...EXPECT TO HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE FCST
AREA AROUND DAYBREAK MONDAY...AND BE EAST OF THE AREA BY NOON.
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT...
THEN BASICALLY A TEMP AND WIND FCST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MAINTAINED
THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL LET IT EXPIRE AS
ADVERTISED AT 6 PM. MAYBE A FEW LINGERING LIGHT PATCHES OF RAIN OVER
FAR EASTERN ZONES THIS EVENING...OTHERWISE A DRY SHORT TERM FCST.
LOW TEMPS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER 50S WELL INLAND...RAINING TO THE
LOWER 60S TO THE SOUTH AND ALONG THE COAST. HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE
MID 60S OVER NORTHWEST WHERE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE
EARLY PART OF THE DAY...RANGING TO THE MIDDLE 70S SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES WHERE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT DEVELOPS A LITTLE
LATER IN THE DAY. COLDER MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BEHIND
THE FRONT... LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S OVER INTERIOR COUNTIES
AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S ALONG THE COAST. 12/DS

&&

.(TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT)...A 160 KNOT JET STREAK AT 300 MB WILL
FOLLOW THE ONE SEEN THIS MORNING PLUNGING SOUTHEAST FROM OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE NEW FEATURE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE ROCKIES
MONDAY MORNING DIGGING A DEEP UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST TO SOUTHEAST TEXAS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS RELATIVELY
SHORT WAVELENGTH UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND PAST US BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A COLD
SURFACE HIGH WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO AND
RIDGING INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS
OCCURS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE RESULTING LOW WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF AND REACH THE EASTERN GULF BY
TUESDAY EVENING CROSSING INTO THE CENTRAL PENINSULAR GULF COAST OF
FLORIDA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A DEEP LAYER CHILLING TREND
TO THE REGION STARTING EARLY TUESDAY AS THE GULF LOW RUNS ALONG A SW
TO NE TRACK SOUTH OF US BRINGING ABOUT INCREASED COLD AIR ADVECTION.
PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE UPPER TROUGH...HIGHS ACROSS OUR REGION
WILL BE NEAR 60 WHICH IS 10 TO 13 DEGREES BELOW THE MONTHLY MEAN WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S OR 5 TO 8
DEGREES BELOW THE MONTHLY MEAN. WE HAVE EVALUATED THE SOUNDINGS FROM
THE NAM...GFS...AND EURO THOROUGHLY...AND HAVE DETERMINED WE WILL SEE
ONLY COLD RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT AND NOT MUCH ELSE. 77/BD

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...WAVENUMBER 5 PATTERN SHOWS A
WELL ESTABLISHED 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE UPPER PLAINS. THE TROUGH WILL
FLATTEN OUT INTO A MUCH LONGER WAVEFORM BRINGING UPPER ZONAL FLOW TO
THE REGION. THAT WOULD OCCUR BY THURSDAY WITH A SURFACE HIGH BUILDING IN
FROM THE WEST DOMINATING THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTHEAST STATES
THROUGH SUNDAY. THUS IT WILL BE DRY AND COOL WITH HIGHS FROM THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S...AND LOWS FROM THE MID 30S INLAND TO THE MID
40S COASTAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INCREASING INTO THE
MID 40S TO MID 50S SUNDAY NIGHT. 77/BD

&&

.MARINE...TAIL END OF PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE MOVING EAST OF THE
MARINE AREA BY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. STRONG SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT DROPPING BELOW
GALE FORCE (WITH REGARD TO GUSTS). AS SUCH...WILL LET THE GALE
WARNING EXPIRE AT 6 PM THIS EVENING AS PREVIOUSLY INDICATED...BUT
MAINTAIN THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH NOON MONDAY. DURING THE
DAY ON MONDAY...WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND BECOME MORE NORTHERLY MONDAY NIGHT WHILE
BRIEFLY SUBSIDING. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK...
INCREASING AGAIN ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LIKELY
DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF AND MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARD THE
CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA. DURING THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK... THE
OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUES BUT WEAKENS CONSIDERABLY. SEAS INITIALLY UP
TO AROUND 9 FEET TONIGHT...SUBSIDING TO AROUND 6 FEET BY
WEDNESDAY...THEN 1-2 FEET LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. 12/DS

&&

.AVIATION...
24/00Z TAF ISSUANCE...CEILINGS GENERALLY AT THE LOWER LIMIT OF VFR
THROUGH TONIGHT (AROUND 4000 FEET)...BUT IN SOME PLACES LOWER TO
MVFR IN PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT. THE FOG MAY LIMIT SFC VSBY TO AROUND 3
MILES (MVFR OR BRIEFLY IFR IN SOME LOCATIONS) AFTER ABOUT 24/15Z
ONLY HIGH CLOUDS LEFT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS AND EAST OF
THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. WINDS INITIALLY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST 10G20 KNOTS OR SO EARLY THIS EVENING...DECREASING TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT (PERHAPS SOME HIGHER GUSTS NEAR THE
COAST).  DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...
GENERALLY AROUND 10 KNOTS. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      58  71  42  59  40 /  10  10  10  20  30
PENSACOLA   63  75  45  57  42 /  10  10  10  40  40
DESTIN      67  73  51  57  46 /  20  10  10  40  50
EVERGREEN   57  70  41  58  39 /  20  10  10  20  30
WAYNESBORO  53  67  36  58  36 /  10  10  10  05  20
CAMDEN      54  68  39  57  38 /  20  10  10  10  20
CRESTVIEW   59  75  43  58  39 /  20  10  10  30  50

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BUTLER...CHOCTAW...CLARKE...CONECUH...COVINGTON...
     CRENSHAW...ESCAMBIA...LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...
     MONROE...UPPER BALDWIN...UPPER MOBILE...WASHINGTON...
     WILCOX...

FL...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL
     ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...INLAND
     ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...INLAND SANTA ROSA...

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...

MS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     GEORGE...GREENE...PERRY...STONE...WAYNE...

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...NORTHERN MOBILE
     BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...PERDIDO BAY...SOUTHERN MOBILE
     BAY...

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL
     WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM...
     WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SUNDAY TO NOON MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA
     MS OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM
     20 TO 60 NM...

&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KMOB 231740
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1140 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...LINE OF STRONGEST STORMS EXTENDING FROM WILCOX COUNTY
SOUTHEAST TO SANTA ROSA AND OKALOOSA COUNTIES OF FLORIDA. AS UPPER
TROF BECOMES MORE NEGATIVELY ORIENTED THIS LINE OF STORMS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST AND BEGIN LIFTING OUT A LITTLE MORE
RAPIDLY DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. WE HAVE BEEN MONITORING THE
STORMS...AND MANY HAVE BEEN BROADLY ROTATING...BUT DEEP LAYER STRONG
SHEAR OF 50 KNOTS OR GREATER IS ACTUALLY PROVING TO BE JUST A LITTLE
TOO STRONG TO SUPPORT LONG LIVED ROTATING UPDRAFTS. IN ADDITION...TO
THE SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT...WHERE THE STRONGER STORMS ARE LOCATED
THE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR HAS DECREASED AND BECOME MORE UNIFORM WITH
HEIGHT. AS A RESULT...WHILE SOME OF THE STORMS WILL BE STRONG (AND
POSSIBLE EVEN BRIEFLY SEVERE) OVER OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES...THE
SEVERE THREAT IS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING FOR OUR AREA (ALTHOUGH
CONTINUES JUST TO THE EAST). THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OF
OUR FCST AREA DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. RAIN CONTINUES BEHIND THE
STRONGER STORMS...BUT WILL BE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR (CLEARLY DEPICTED IN THE DRY SLOT
ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY) RAPIDLY MOVES INTO THE AREA. OTHERWISE...FCST
REMAINS ON TRACK. WIND ADVISORY HAS YET TO VERIFY...BUT OBSERVATIONS
UPSTREAM ARE INDICATING STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND THOSE ARE
LIKELY TO DEVELOP EAST LATER TODAY SO WILL MAINTAIN THE ADVISORY
WHICH IS VALID UNTIL 6 PM. TEMPERATURES HAVE JUMPED SLIGHTLY ABOVE
FCST MAX VALUES IN A FEW LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT...BUT THE
GENERAL MIDDLE 70S FCST LOOKS TO BE OK FOR THE MOST PART. TEMPS OVER
THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES STRUGGLING TO MAKE IT OUT OF THE 60S...AND MAX
TEMPS HAVE ALREADY PEAKED IN THE LOW TO MID 70S OVER SOUTHWESTERN
COUNTIES BUT ARE NOW DROPPING BACK DOWN THROUGH THE 60S.

12/DS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 437 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

..SQUALL LINE APPROACHES AND MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND
BRINGS POTENTIAL OF DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES...

SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...VIGOROUS MID LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WAS
MOVING ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS THIS MORNING WITH AN AREA OF COLD CLOUD
TOPS INDICATED ON IR SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM COAST SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA
TO OFF THE LOUISIANA COAST. COLDER CLOUDS/CONCENTRATED LIGHTNING
DATA IS POSITIONED IN THE MORE ESTABLISHED...HIGH LEVEL DIFFLUENT
FLOW AS THE MID LEVEL SYSTEM WILL SOON BEGIN LIFTING NORTHEAST. A
STRONGLY DEFINED NEGATIVE TILT APPEARANCE AND DIFFLUENT FLOW TO THE
MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST BY
THE NOON HOUR. THIS WILL CAUSE ENHANCED ASCENT IN A DEVELOPING WARM
AND MOIST SECTOR AS A WARM FRONT SURGES NORTHWARD ACROSS
ALABAMA/MISSISSIPPI. LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILES VEER WITH H85
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET STREAK INCREASING TO 50 TO 60 KNOTS
DURING THE LATE MORNING TO MID AFTERNOON. LATEST SHORT RANGE
MESOSCALE MODELS INDICATE HODOGRAPHS BECOMING STRONGLY CURVED WITH
0-1 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY VALUES RANGING FROM 150 TO 300 M2/S2.
THIS SUPPORTS ROTATING STORM UPDRAFTS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES IN
DISCRETE CELLS THAT FORM OUT AHEAD OF MAIN SQUALL LINE THAT IS
PROGGED TO MAKE EASTWARD PROGRESS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. LATEST
HIGH RESOLUTION WEATHER MODELS INDICATE TIMING OF THIS LINE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MS BETWEEN 9 AM AND NOON...MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST AL AROUND
THE NOON HOUR AND MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE BETWEEN
1 AND 3 PM. IN ADDITION TO THE ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL OF LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN ANY BOWING LINE
SEGMENTS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ALSO POSSIBLE...BUT THE RAPID EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE LINE...IS EXPECTED TO MITIGATE WIDESPREAD FLOODING
ISSUES. LOOKS LIKE WET WEATHER WILL BE MOVING EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA
BY AND AFTER 3 PM. CLOUDS LOOK TO LINGER LONGER AS LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC
CURVATURE IN HEIGHT FIELD ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE. HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOWER HALF OF THE 70S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER/MID 50S
INTERIOR TO LOWER/MID 60S BEACH AREAS.

LATEST RADAR VELOCITY WIND PROFILES IN THE LOWEST 3 KFT SHOW
SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 25 TO 35 KNOTS. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TO VEER AND TREND HIGHER THROUGH THE DAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
STORM SYSTEM MAKES A CLOSER APPROACH. GOOD MIXING SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
WINDY DAY WITH EAST NORTHEAST WINDS THIS MORNING BECOMING SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON...RANGING FROM 20 TO 30
MPH WITH FREQUENT HIGHER GUSTS. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED
BEGINNING AT MID MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

AN INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY COMPONENT IN WINDS IN COMBINATION WITH
SPRING TIDAL CYCLES AND AN INCREASE IN HIGHER PERIOD SWELL RESULTS IN
CONTINUED HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS TO POTENTIALLY DEADLY RIP CURRENTS
ALONG THE BEACHES TODAY. /10

[MONDAY AND TUESDAY]...A COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH OUR SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI AND INLAND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA COUNTIES MONDAY MORNING
WILL MOVE QUICKLY SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY MID AFTERNOON. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA WILL
QUICKLY EXIT EASTWARD BY NOON MONDAY. A MASSIVE UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE
TROUGH WILL CRADLE MUCH OF NORTH AMERICA MONDAY MORNING. A 150 KNOT
300 MB JET DIVING SOUTHEAST OVER THE NORTHWEST CONUS WILL CARVE OUT
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO SOUTH
TEXAS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL THEN ADVANCE
EASTWARD OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AS A SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE LIFTS NORTHEAST OVER THE
EASTERN GULF BY TUESDAY EVENING...AND THEN ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA AFTER MIDNIGHT. PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE UPPER
SYSTEM...HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WILL BE IN THE
NEAR 60 WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S...SO
EXPECT A COLD RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT. /22

LONG TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY]...UPPER ZONAL FLOW WILL RESUME
ON THURSDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL
SETTLE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM. DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID
60S...AND LOW TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO THE
MID 40S WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WARMING INTO THE MID
40S TO MID 50S SATURDAY NIGHT. /22

AVIATION...
23.12Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF CYCLE
CONVECTIVE LINE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS MOB/BFM BETWEEN 17 AND
19Z AND PNS BETWEEN 18 AND 20Z. AHEAD OF THE LINE...WINDS TURN SOUTH
AND RANGE FROM 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRONGER WINDS
EXPECTED WITH PASSING CONVECTION. IFR/LIFR CIGS AND VSBY POSSIBLE IN
CONVECTION. /10

MARINE...A STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE
LOWER TO MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TODAY. AS THIS OCCURS...STRONG
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE.
FREQUENT WIND GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ARE LIKELY THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY
TODAY OVER THE OPEN ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN UP ACROSS BAYS AND SOUNDS. HIGH SEAS
CONTINUE. DATA COLLECTION PLATFORMS AT 23.09Z INDICATE SEAS OF 8 FEET
AT BUOY 42012 AND 42040. AS SQUALL LINE OF STORMS MOVE EAST
TODAY...WINDS...WAVES AND SEAS WILL BE LOCALLY HIGHER. MARINERS
SHOULD BE ALERT TO SEVERE STORMS WHICH WILL LIKELY BRING INSTANCES OF
WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 KNOTS. ISOLATED TORNADOES ALSO POSSIBLE.
FREQUENT CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY...VISIBILITY
REDUCING RAINS WILL BE COMMON IN STRONG TO SEVERE MARINE STORMS
TODAY. LOW PRESSURE RESPONSIBLE FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS
TODAY...LIFTS QUICKLY NORTHEAST...UP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WINDS DECREASE AND SEAS SUBSIDE INTO THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. /10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      74  58  70  41  59 / 100  10  10  05  20
PENSACOLA   75  63  72  46  59 / 100  10  10  05  40
DESTIN      72  64  72  49  59 / 100  20  20  05  40
EVERGREEN   73  55  71  40  59 / 100  10  10  05  20
WAYNESBORO  74  51  66  38  59 / 100  10  10  05  05
CAMDEN      72  53  68  39  58 / 100  10  10  05  10
CRESTVIEW   73  61  74  42  59 / 100  20  10  05  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BUTLER...CHOCTAW...CLARKE...CONECUH...COVINGTON...
     CRENSHAW...ESCAMBIA...LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...
     MONROE...UPPER BALDWIN...UPPER MOBILE...WASHINGTON...
     WILCOX...

FL...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL
     ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...INLAND
     ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...INLAND SANTA ROSA...

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...

MS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     GEORGE...GREENE...PERRY...STONE...WAYNE...

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...NORTHERN MOBILE
     BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...PERDIDO BAY...SOUTHERN MOBILE
     BAY...

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL
     WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM...
     WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SUNDAY TO NOON MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA
     MS OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM
     20 TO 60 NM...

&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KMOB 231740
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1140 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...LINE OF STRONGEST STORMS EXTENDING FROM WILCOX COUNTY
SOUTHEAST TO SANTA ROSA AND OKALOOSA COUNTIES OF FLORIDA. AS UPPER
TROF BECOMES MORE NEGATIVELY ORIENTED THIS LINE OF STORMS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST AND BEGIN LIFTING OUT A LITTLE MORE
RAPIDLY DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. WE HAVE BEEN MONITORING THE
STORMS...AND MANY HAVE BEEN BROADLY ROTATING...BUT DEEP LAYER STRONG
SHEAR OF 50 KNOTS OR GREATER IS ACTUALLY PROVING TO BE JUST A LITTLE
TOO STRONG TO SUPPORT LONG LIVED ROTATING UPDRAFTS. IN ADDITION...TO
THE SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT...WHERE THE STRONGER STORMS ARE LOCATED
THE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR HAS DECREASED AND BECOME MORE UNIFORM WITH
HEIGHT. AS A RESULT...WHILE SOME OF THE STORMS WILL BE STRONG (AND
POSSIBLE EVEN BRIEFLY SEVERE) OVER OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES...THE
SEVERE THREAT IS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING FOR OUR AREA (ALTHOUGH
CONTINUES JUST TO THE EAST). THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OF
OUR FCST AREA DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. RAIN CONTINUES BEHIND THE
STRONGER STORMS...BUT WILL BE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR (CLEARLY DEPICTED IN THE DRY SLOT
ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY) RAPIDLY MOVES INTO THE AREA. OTHERWISE...FCST
REMAINS ON TRACK. WIND ADVISORY HAS YET TO VERIFY...BUT OBSERVATIONS
UPSTREAM ARE INDICATING STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND THOSE ARE
LIKELY TO DEVELOP EAST LATER TODAY SO WILL MAINTAIN THE ADVISORY
WHICH IS VALID UNTIL 6 PM. TEMPERATURES HAVE JUMPED SLIGHTLY ABOVE
FCST MAX VALUES IN A FEW LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT...BUT THE
GENERAL MIDDLE 70S FCST LOOKS TO BE OK FOR THE MOST PART. TEMPS OVER
THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES STRUGGLING TO MAKE IT OUT OF THE 60S...AND MAX
TEMPS HAVE ALREADY PEAKED IN THE LOW TO MID 70S OVER SOUTHWESTERN
COUNTIES BUT ARE NOW DROPPING BACK DOWN THROUGH THE 60S.

12/DS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 437 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

..SQUALL LINE APPROACHES AND MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND
BRINGS POTENTIAL OF DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES...

SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...VIGOROUS MID LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WAS
MOVING ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS THIS MORNING WITH AN AREA OF COLD CLOUD
TOPS INDICATED ON IR SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM COAST SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA
TO OFF THE LOUISIANA COAST. COLDER CLOUDS/CONCENTRATED LIGHTNING
DATA IS POSITIONED IN THE MORE ESTABLISHED...HIGH LEVEL DIFFLUENT
FLOW AS THE MID LEVEL SYSTEM WILL SOON BEGIN LIFTING NORTHEAST. A
STRONGLY DEFINED NEGATIVE TILT APPEARANCE AND DIFFLUENT FLOW TO THE
MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST BY
THE NOON HOUR. THIS WILL CAUSE ENHANCED ASCENT IN A DEVELOPING WARM
AND MOIST SECTOR AS A WARM FRONT SURGES NORTHWARD ACROSS
ALABAMA/MISSISSIPPI. LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILES VEER WITH H85
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET STREAK INCREASING TO 50 TO 60 KNOTS
DURING THE LATE MORNING TO MID AFTERNOON. LATEST SHORT RANGE
MESOSCALE MODELS INDICATE HODOGRAPHS BECOMING STRONGLY CURVED WITH
0-1 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY VALUES RANGING FROM 150 TO 300 M2/S2.
THIS SUPPORTS ROTATING STORM UPDRAFTS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES IN
DISCRETE CELLS THAT FORM OUT AHEAD OF MAIN SQUALL LINE THAT IS
PROGGED TO MAKE EASTWARD PROGRESS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. LATEST
HIGH RESOLUTION WEATHER MODELS INDICATE TIMING OF THIS LINE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MS BETWEEN 9 AM AND NOON...MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST AL AROUND
THE NOON HOUR AND MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE BETWEEN
1 AND 3 PM. IN ADDITION TO THE ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL OF LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN ANY BOWING LINE
SEGMENTS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ALSO POSSIBLE...BUT THE RAPID EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE LINE...IS EXPECTED TO MITIGATE WIDESPREAD FLOODING
ISSUES. LOOKS LIKE WET WEATHER WILL BE MOVING EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA
BY AND AFTER 3 PM. CLOUDS LOOK TO LINGER LONGER AS LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC
CURVATURE IN HEIGHT FIELD ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE. HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOWER HALF OF THE 70S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER/MID 50S
INTERIOR TO LOWER/MID 60S BEACH AREAS.

LATEST RADAR VELOCITY WIND PROFILES IN THE LOWEST 3 KFT SHOW
SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 25 TO 35 KNOTS. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TO VEER AND TREND HIGHER THROUGH THE DAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
STORM SYSTEM MAKES A CLOSER APPROACH. GOOD MIXING SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
WINDY DAY WITH EAST NORTHEAST WINDS THIS MORNING BECOMING SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON...RANGING FROM 20 TO 30
MPH WITH FREQUENT HIGHER GUSTS. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED
BEGINNING AT MID MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

AN INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY COMPONENT IN WINDS IN COMBINATION WITH
SPRING TIDAL CYCLES AND AN INCREASE IN HIGHER PERIOD SWELL RESULTS IN
CONTINUED HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS TO POTENTIALLY DEADLY RIP CURRENTS
ALONG THE BEACHES TODAY. /10

[MONDAY AND TUESDAY]...A COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH OUR SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI AND INLAND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA COUNTIES MONDAY MORNING
WILL MOVE QUICKLY SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY MID AFTERNOON. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA WILL
QUICKLY EXIT EASTWARD BY NOON MONDAY. A MASSIVE UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE
TROUGH WILL CRADLE MUCH OF NORTH AMERICA MONDAY MORNING. A 150 KNOT
300 MB JET DIVING SOUTHEAST OVER THE NORTHWEST CONUS WILL CARVE OUT
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO SOUTH
TEXAS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL THEN ADVANCE
EASTWARD OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AS A SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE LIFTS NORTHEAST OVER THE
EASTERN GULF BY TUESDAY EVENING...AND THEN ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA AFTER MIDNIGHT. PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE UPPER
SYSTEM...HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WILL BE IN THE
NEAR 60 WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S...SO
EXPECT A COLD RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT. /22

LONG TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY]...UPPER ZONAL FLOW WILL RESUME
ON THURSDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL
SETTLE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM. DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID
60S...AND LOW TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO THE
MID 40S WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WARMING INTO THE MID
40S TO MID 50S SATURDAY NIGHT. /22

AVIATION...
23.12Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF CYCLE
CONVECTIVE LINE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS MOB/BFM BETWEEN 17 AND
19Z AND PNS BETWEEN 18 AND 20Z. AHEAD OF THE LINE...WINDS TURN SOUTH
AND RANGE FROM 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRONGER WINDS
EXPECTED WITH PASSING CONVECTION. IFR/LIFR CIGS AND VSBY POSSIBLE IN
CONVECTION. /10

MARINE...A STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE
LOWER TO MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TODAY. AS THIS OCCURS...STRONG
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE.
FREQUENT WIND GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ARE LIKELY THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY
TODAY OVER THE OPEN ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN UP ACROSS BAYS AND SOUNDS. HIGH SEAS
CONTINUE. DATA COLLECTION PLATFORMS AT 23.09Z INDICATE SEAS OF 8 FEET
AT BUOY 42012 AND 42040. AS SQUALL LINE OF STORMS MOVE EAST
TODAY...WINDS...WAVES AND SEAS WILL BE LOCALLY HIGHER. MARINERS
SHOULD BE ALERT TO SEVERE STORMS WHICH WILL LIKELY BRING INSTANCES OF
WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 KNOTS. ISOLATED TORNADOES ALSO POSSIBLE.
FREQUENT CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY...VISIBILITY
REDUCING RAINS WILL BE COMMON IN STRONG TO SEVERE MARINE STORMS
TODAY. LOW PRESSURE RESPONSIBLE FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS
TODAY...LIFTS QUICKLY NORTHEAST...UP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WINDS DECREASE AND SEAS SUBSIDE INTO THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. /10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      74  58  70  41  59 / 100  10  10  05  20
PENSACOLA   75  63  72  46  59 / 100  10  10  05  40
DESTIN      72  64  72  49  59 / 100  20  20  05  40
EVERGREEN   73  55  71  40  59 / 100  10  10  05  20
WAYNESBORO  74  51  66  38  59 / 100  10  10  05  05
CAMDEN      72  53  68  39  58 / 100  10  10  05  10
CRESTVIEW   73  61  74  42  59 / 100  20  10  05  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BUTLER...CHOCTAW...CLARKE...CONECUH...COVINGTON...
     CRENSHAW...ESCAMBIA...LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...
     MONROE...UPPER BALDWIN...UPPER MOBILE...WASHINGTON...
     WILCOX...

FL...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL
     ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...INLAND
     ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...INLAND SANTA ROSA...

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...

MS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     GEORGE...GREENE...PERRY...STONE...WAYNE...

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...NORTHERN MOBILE
     BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...PERDIDO BAY...SOUTHERN MOBILE
     BAY...

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL
     WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM...
     WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SUNDAY TO NOON MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA
     MS OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM
     20 TO 60 NM...

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMOB 231037
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
437 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

...SQUALL LINE APPROACHES AND MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND
BRINGS POTENTIAL OF DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES...

.SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...VIGOROUS MID LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WAS
MOVING ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS THIS MORNING WITH AN AREA OF COLD CLOUD
TOPS INDICATED ON IR SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM COAST SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA
TO OFF THE LOUISIANA COAST. COLDER CLOUDS/CONCENTRATED LIGHTNING
DATA IS POSITIONED IN THE MORE ESTABLISHED...HIGH LEVEL DIFFLUENT
FLOW AS THE MID LEVEL SYSTEM WILL SOON BEGIN LIFTING NORTHEAST. A
STRONGLY DEFINED NEGATIVE TILT APPEARANCE AND DIFFLUENT FLOW TO THE
MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST BY
THE NOON HOUR. THIS WILL CAUSE ENHANCED ASCENT IN A DEVELOPING WARM
AND MOIST SECTOR AS A WARM FRONT SURGES NORTHWARD ACROSS
ALABAMA/MISSISSIPPI. LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILES VEER WITH H85
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET STREAK INCREASING TO 50 TO 60 KNOTS
DURING THE LATE MORNING TO MID AFTERNOON. LATEST SHORT RANGE
MESOSCALE MODELS INDICATE HODOGRAPHS BECOMING STRONGLY CURVED WITH
0-1 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY VALUES RANGING FROM 150 TO 300 M2/S2.
THIS SUPPORTS ROTATING STORM UPDRAFTS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES IN
DISCRETE CELLS THAT FORM OUT AHEAD OF MAIN SQUALL LINE THAT IS
PROGGED TO MAKE EASTWARD PROGRESS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. LATEST
HIGH RESOLUTION WEATHER MODELS INDICATE TIMING OF THIS LINE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MS BETWEEN 9 AM AND NOON...MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST AL AROUND
THE NOON HOUR AND MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE BETWEEN
1 AND 3 PM. IN ADDITION TO THE ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL OF LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN ANY BOWING LINE
SEGMENTS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ALSO POSSIBLE...BUT THE RAPID EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE LINE...IS EXPECTED TO MITIGATE WIDESPREAD FLOODING
ISSUES. LOOKS LIKE WET WEATHER WILL BE MOVING EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA
BY AND AFTER 3 PM. CLOUDS LOOK TO LINGER LONGER AS LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC
CURVATURE IN HEIGHT FIELD ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE. HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOWER HALF OF THE 70S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER/MID 50S
INTERIOR TO LOWER/MID 60S BEACH AREAS.

LATEST RADAR VELOCITY WIND PROFILES IN THE LOWEST 3 KFT SHOW
SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 25 TO 35 KNOTS. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TO VEER AND TREND HIGHER THROUGH THE DAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
STORM SYSTEM MAKES A CLOSER APPROACH. GOOD MIXING SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
WINDY DAY WITH EAST NORTHEAST WINDS THIS MORNING BECOMING SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON...RANGING FROM 20 TO 30
MPH WITH FREQUENT HIGHER GUSTS. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED
BEGINNING AT MID MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

AN INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY COMPONENT IN WINDS IN COMBINATION WITH
SPRING TIDAL CYCLES AND AN INCREASE IN HIGHER PERIOD SWELL RESULTS IN
CONTINUED HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS TO POTENTIALLY DEADLY RIP CURRENTS
ALONG THE BEACHES TODAY. /10

[MONDAY AND TUESDAY]...A COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH OUR SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI AND INLAND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA COUNTIES MONDAY MORNING
WILL MOVE QUICKLY SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY MID AFTERNOON. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA WILL
QUICKLY EXIT EASTWARD BY NOON MONDAY. A MASSIVE UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE
TROUGH WILL CRADLE MUCH OF NORTH AMERICA MONDAY MORNING. A 150 KNOT
300 MB JET DIVING SOUTHEAST OVER THE NORTHWEST CONUS WILL CARVE OUT
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO SOUTH
TEXAS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL THEN ADVANCE
EASTWARD OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AS A SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE LIFTS NORTHEAST OVER THE
EASTERN GULF BY TUESDAY EVENING...AND THEN ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA AFTER MIDNIGHT. PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE UPPER
SYSTEM...HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WILL BE IN THE
NEAR 60 WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S...SO
EXPECT A COLD RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT. /22

.LONG TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY]...UPPER ZONAL FLOW WILL RESUME
ON THURSDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL
SETTLE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM. DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID
60S...AND LOW TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO THE
MID 40S WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WARMING INTO THE MID
40S TO MID 50S SATURDAY NIGHT. /22

&&

.AVIATION...
23.12Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF CYCLE
CONVECTIVE LINE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS MOB/BFM BETWEEN 17 AND
19Z AND PNS BETWEEN 18 AND 20Z. AHEAD OF THE LINE...WINDS TURN SOUTH
AND RANGE FROM 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRONGER WINDS
EXPECTED WITH PASSING CONVECTION. IFR/LIFR CIGS AND VSBY POSSIBLE IN
CONVECTION. /10

&&

.MARINE...A STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE
LOWER TO MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TODAY. AS THIS OCCURS...STRONG
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE.
FREQUENT WIND GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ARE LIKELY THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY
TODAY OVER THE OPEN ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN UP ACROSS BAYS AND SOUNDS. HIGH SEAS
CONTINUE. DATA COLLECTION PLATFORMS AT 23.09Z INDICATE SEAS OF 8 FEET
AT BUOY 42012 AND 42040. AS SQUALL LINE OF STORMS MOVE EAST
TODAY...WINDS...WAVES AND SEAS WILL BE LOCALLY HIGHER. MARINERS
SHOULD BE ALERT TO SEVERE STORMS WHICH WILL LIKELY BRING INSTANCES OF
WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 KNOTS. ISOLATED TORNADOES ALSO POSSIBLE.
FREQUENT CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY...VISIBILITY
REDUCING RAINS WILL BE COMMON IN STRONG TO SEVERE MARINE STORMS
TODAY. LOW PRESSURE RESPONSIBLE FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS
TODAY...LIFTS QUICKLY NORTHEAST...UP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WINDS DECREASE AND SEAS SUBSIDE INTO THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. /10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      74  58  70  41  59 / 100  10  10  05  20
PENSACOLA   75  63  72  46  59 / 100  10  10  05  40
DESTIN      72  64  72  49  59 / 100  20  20  05  40
EVERGREEN   73  55  71  40  59 / 100  10  10  05  20
WAYNESBORO  74  51  66  38  59 / 100  10  10  05  05
CAMDEN      72  53  68  39  58 / 100  10  10  05  10
CRESTVIEW   73  61  74  42  59 / 100  20  10  05  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM SUNDAY TO 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BUTLER...CHOCTAW...CLARKE...CONECUH...COVINGTON...
     CRENSHAW...ESCAMBIA...LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...
     MONROE...UPPER BALDWIN...UPPER MOBILE...WASHINGTON...
     WILCOX...

FL...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM SUNDAY TO 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA
     ROSA...INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...INLAND SANTA
     ROSA...

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...

MS...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM SUNDAY TO 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: GEORGE...GREENE...PERRY...STONE...WAYNE...

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...NORTHERN MOBILE
     BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...PERDIDO BAY...SOUTHERN MOBILE
     BAY...

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL
     WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM...
     WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20
     NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SUNDAY TO NOON MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA
     MS OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM
     20 TO 60 NM...

&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KMOB 231037
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
437 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

...SQUALL LINE APPROACHES AND MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND
BRINGS POTENTIAL OF DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES...

.SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...VIGOROUS MID LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WAS
MOVING ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS THIS MORNING WITH AN AREA OF COLD CLOUD
TOPS INDICATED ON IR SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM COAST SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA
TO OFF THE LOUISIANA COAST. COLDER CLOUDS/CONCENTRATED LIGHTNING
DATA IS POSITIONED IN THE MORE ESTABLISHED...HIGH LEVEL DIFFLUENT
FLOW AS THE MID LEVEL SYSTEM WILL SOON BEGIN LIFTING NORTHEAST. A
STRONGLY DEFINED NEGATIVE TILT APPEARANCE AND DIFFLUENT FLOW TO THE
MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST BY
THE NOON HOUR. THIS WILL CAUSE ENHANCED ASCENT IN A DEVELOPING WARM
AND MOIST SECTOR AS A WARM FRONT SURGES NORTHWARD ACROSS
ALABAMA/MISSISSIPPI. LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILES VEER WITH H85
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET STREAK INCREASING TO 50 TO 60 KNOTS
DURING THE LATE MORNING TO MID AFTERNOON. LATEST SHORT RANGE
MESOSCALE MODELS INDICATE HODOGRAPHS BECOMING STRONGLY CURVED WITH
0-1 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY VALUES RANGING FROM 150 TO 300 M2/S2.
THIS SUPPORTS ROTATING STORM UPDRAFTS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES IN
DISCRETE CELLS THAT FORM OUT AHEAD OF MAIN SQUALL LINE THAT IS
PROGGED TO MAKE EASTWARD PROGRESS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. LATEST
HIGH RESOLUTION WEATHER MODELS INDICATE TIMING OF THIS LINE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MS BETWEEN 9 AM AND NOON...MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST AL AROUND
THE NOON HOUR AND MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE BETWEEN
1 AND 3 PM. IN ADDITION TO THE ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL OF LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN ANY BOWING LINE
SEGMENTS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ALSO POSSIBLE...BUT THE RAPID EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE LINE...IS EXPECTED TO MITIGATE WIDESPREAD FLOODING
ISSUES. LOOKS LIKE WET WEATHER WILL BE MOVING EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA
BY AND AFTER 3 PM. CLOUDS LOOK TO LINGER LONGER AS LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC
CURVATURE IN HEIGHT FIELD ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE. HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOWER HALF OF THE 70S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER/MID 50S
INTERIOR TO LOWER/MID 60S BEACH AREAS.

LATEST RADAR VELOCITY WIND PROFILES IN THE LOWEST 3 KFT SHOW
SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 25 TO 35 KNOTS. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TO VEER AND TREND HIGHER THROUGH THE DAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
STORM SYSTEM MAKES A CLOSER APPROACH. GOOD MIXING SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
WINDY DAY WITH EAST NORTHEAST WINDS THIS MORNING BECOMING SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON...RANGING FROM 20 TO 30
MPH WITH FREQUENT HIGHER GUSTS. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED
BEGINNING AT MID MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

AN INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY COMPONENT IN WINDS IN COMBINATION WITH
SPRING TIDAL CYCLES AND AN INCREASE IN HIGHER PERIOD SWELL RESULTS IN
CONTINUED HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS TO POTENTIALLY DEADLY RIP CURRENTS
ALONG THE BEACHES TODAY. /10

[MONDAY AND TUESDAY]...A COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH OUR SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI AND INLAND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA COUNTIES MONDAY MORNING
WILL MOVE QUICKLY SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY MID AFTERNOON. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA WILL
QUICKLY EXIT EASTWARD BY NOON MONDAY. A MASSIVE UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE
TROUGH WILL CRADLE MUCH OF NORTH AMERICA MONDAY MORNING. A 150 KNOT
300 MB JET DIVING SOUTHEAST OVER THE NORTHWEST CONUS WILL CARVE OUT
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO SOUTH
TEXAS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL THEN ADVANCE
EASTWARD OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AS A SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE LIFTS NORTHEAST OVER THE
EASTERN GULF BY TUESDAY EVENING...AND THEN ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA AFTER MIDNIGHT. PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE UPPER
SYSTEM...HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WILL BE IN THE
NEAR 60 WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S...SO
EXPECT A COLD RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT. /22

.LONG TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY]...UPPER ZONAL FLOW WILL RESUME
ON THURSDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL
SETTLE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM. DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID
60S...AND LOW TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO THE
MID 40S WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WARMING INTO THE MID
40S TO MID 50S SATURDAY NIGHT. /22

&&

.AVIATION...
23.12Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF CYCLE
CONVECTIVE LINE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS MOB/BFM BETWEEN 17 AND
19Z AND PNS BETWEEN 18 AND 20Z. AHEAD OF THE LINE...WINDS TURN SOUTH
AND RANGE FROM 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRONGER WINDS
EXPECTED WITH PASSING CONVECTION. IFR/LIFR CIGS AND VSBY POSSIBLE IN
CONVECTION. /10

&&

.MARINE...A STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE
LOWER TO MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TODAY. AS THIS OCCURS...STRONG
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE.
FREQUENT WIND GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ARE LIKELY THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY
TODAY OVER THE OPEN ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN UP ACROSS BAYS AND SOUNDS. HIGH SEAS
CONTINUE. DATA COLLECTION PLATFORMS AT 23.09Z INDICATE SEAS OF 8 FEET
AT BUOY 42012 AND 42040. AS SQUALL LINE OF STORMS MOVE EAST
TODAY...WINDS...WAVES AND SEAS WILL BE LOCALLY HIGHER. MARINERS
SHOULD BE ALERT TO SEVERE STORMS WHICH WILL LIKELY BRING INSTANCES OF
WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 KNOTS. ISOLATED TORNADOES ALSO POSSIBLE.
FREQUENT CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY...VISIBILITY
REDUCING RAINS WILL BE COMMON IN STRONG TO SEVERE MARINE STORMS
TODAY. LOW PRESSURE RESPONSIBLE FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS
TODAY...LIFTS QUICKLY NORTHEAST...UP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WINDS DECREASE AND SEAS SUBSIDE INTO THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. /10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      74  58  70  41  59 / 100  10  10  05  20
PENSACOLA   75  63  72  46  59 / 100  10  10  05  40
DESTIN      72  64  72  49  59 / 100  20  20  05  40
EVERGREEN   73  55  71  40  59 / 100  10  10  05  20
WAYNESBORO  74  51  66  38  59 / 100  10  10  05  05
CAMDEN      72  53  68  39  58 / 100  10  10  05  10
CRESTVIEW   73  61  74  42  59 / 100  20  10  05  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM SUNDAY TO 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BUTLER...CHOCTAW...CLARKE...CONECUH...COVINGTON...
     CRENSHAW...ESCAMBIA...LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...
     MONROE...UPPER BALDWIN...UPPER MOBILE...WASHINGTON...
     WILCOX...

FL...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM SUNDAY TO 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA
     ROSA...INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...INLAND SANTA
     ROSA...

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...

MS...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM SUNDAY TO 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: GEORGE...GREENE...PERRY...STONE...WAYNE...

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...NORTHERN MOBILE
     BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...PERDIDO BAY...SOUTHERN MOBILE
     BAY...

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL
     WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM...
     WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20
     NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SUNDAY TO NOON MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA
     MS OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM
     20 TO 60 NM...

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMOB 230542 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1142 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...AFTER WAITING A FAIR AMOUNT OF TIME FOR CONVECTION TO BEGIN
TO DEVELOP MORE EXPANSIVELY OVER THE AREA...HAVE OPTED TO UPDATE NOW
AND DELAY THE BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS UNTIL LATE IN THE
NIGHT.  NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES. /29

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z ISSUANCE...
IFR CEILINGS PREVAIL THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH PRECIPITATION GRADUALLY
DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. WILL HAVE PREVAILING LIFR CONDITIONS IN
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING THEN MVFR CONDITIONS FOLLOW BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. EASTERLY WINDS NEAR 10-12 KNOTS BECOME SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT AND INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS BY EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...THEN BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. /29

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 552 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

AVIATION...
00Z ISSUANCE UPDATE...
A MIX OF MVFR CEILINGS BEGIN THE PERIOD EXCEPT FOR OCCASIONALLY LIFR
NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL BY 03Z
WITH THEN LOWER TO LIFR CONDITIONS AS A SQUALL LINE MOVES THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WITH MVFR CEILINGS IN THE
WAKE OF THE SQUALL LINE BY 18-20Z. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
SQUALL LINE. EASTERLY WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS SWITCH TO THE SOUTHEAST
NEAR 14-15 KNOTS AND GUSTY BY NEAR 12Z SUNDAY THEN BECOME SOUTHWEST
BY 18-20Z. /29

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

A RISK OF SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED SUNDAY MORNING...

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT]...STILL APPEARS TO BE BE
A THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE FCST AREA LATE TONIGHT THRU
MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON SUNDAY. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS
BACKED OFF OF THE ENHANCED THREAT OVERALL...BUT WE STILL FEEL LOCALLY
THAT THERE COULD BE A SMALLER AREA OF ENHANCED THREAT OVER OUR
AREA...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 84.

MODELS STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN MOVING A WARM FRONT TOWARD THE
COAST OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND COASTAL ALABAMA
BY AROUND SUNRISE SUNDAY. WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME OVERRUNNING RAIN OR
ELEVATED SHOWERS TONIGHT...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TO THE NORTH OF
THIS WARM FRONT...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING AND
BECOMING MORE SFC BASED ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES
ASHORE. MOST OF THIS STRONGER SFC BASED CONVECTION WILL BE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FCST AREA MAINLY BETWEEN 3AM-6AM SUNDAY.
DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS AS THE MOVE IN OFF THE GULF. DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON
SUNDAY...THE WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SURGE RAPIDLY NORTHWARD
THROUGH OUR FCST AREA...WITH THE ENTIRE AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE WARM SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM. STILL A LITTLE UNCERTAIN AS TO HOW
FAR INLAND THE BETTER INSTABILITIES MAKE IT...BUT WE FEEL PRETTY
CONFIDENT THAT IT WILL BE AT LEAST AS FAR INLAND AS THE HIGHWAY 84
CORRIDOR. AS THE INSTABILITY INCREASES...WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT THE
SUFFICIENT DYNAMICS AND SHEAR TO WARRANT MENTION OF SEVERE STORMS IN
THE WARM SECTOR. MODELS STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 850MB JET OF 50
TO 60 KNOTS OVER THE FCST AREA AROUND MIDDAY SUNDAY. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...NEGATIVELY TILTED TROF EJECTS ENERGY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION SUNDAY. THIS AND THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE EAST OF THE TROF
WILL HELP PRODUCE AMPLE VERTICAL LIFT.

BY AROUND 12Z (6 AM SUNDAY) WE EXPECT A SQUALL LINE THAT WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER DYNAMICS TO BE
MOVING INTO OUR SOUTHEAST MS COUNTIES...MOVING EAST INTO SOUTHWEST
AL BY AROUND 10 AM...THEN ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR
AND ACROSS THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE NOON TO 1 PM. BY AROUND 2
PM...MOST OF THE STRONGER ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF
OUR FCST AREA.

ISOLATED TORNADOES...SOME POTENTIALLY LONG TRACKED GIVEN SHEAR
PROFILES...POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED CELLS IN THE WARM SECTOR OUT AHEAD
OF THE SQUALL LINE AS WELL AS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SQUALL LINE
ITSELF. DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS ALSO POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE SQUALL LINE. INDIVIDUAL STORM CELLS WILL LIKELY
BE MOVING RATHER QUICKLY...40 TO 50 MPH TOWARD THE NORTHEAST.

SOME HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM...BUT
THE PROGRESSIVE MOVEMENT AND CURRENT DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA
WILL HELP TO SUPPRESS ANY WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING ISSUES.  1 TO 3
INCHES OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE...UP TO 4 INCHES ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
I-65 CORRIDOR. SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. MAIN THREAT
FROM HEAVY RAINS WILL BE MINOR...TEMPORARY URBAN FLOODING.

12/DS

[MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT]...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION
FROM THE WEST EARLY MONDAY MORNING WITH REINFORCING COOL AIR BEHIND
IT. THE FRONT WILL START MOVING IN EARLY MONDAY MORNING...AND WITH
THE 850 MB TROUGH CLEARING US BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WE EXPECT CLEARING
SKIES WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY IN THE LOW 70S IN THE
EAST...AND MID 60S BEHIND THE FRONT GENERALLY IN THE WESTERN HALF.
LOWS UPPER 30S INLAND AND LOWER 40S COASTAL. DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. 77/BD

LONG TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY]...EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM NEAR CRESTVIEW TO PENSACOLA
TUESDAY NIGHT AS A FAST MOVING UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES ALONG A
NORTHEASTWARD TRACK NOW FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA. COOL
CONDITIONS WITH MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES CONTINUING THROUGH THE LONG
TERM...WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER
60S...AND LOWS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOW 30S TO THE LOW 40S.
77/BD

MARINE...A STRONG AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC...WESTWARD TO EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
THIS EVENING WILL RESULT IN A MODERATE TO STRONG EAST SOUTHEAST FLOW
TONIGHT. THE HIGH MOVES EASTWARD ON SUNDAY AS A STRENGTHENING AREA OF
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PIVOTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MID SOUTH ON SUNDAY.
AS THIS OCCURS...WINDS TURN MORE ONSHORE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
AND REMAIN STRONG. WIND GUSTS COULD APPROACH GALE FORCE THROUGH MOST
OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY OVER THE GULF COASTAL WATERS OF ALABAMA AND
NORTHWEST FLORIDA. SEAS WILL TREND MUCH HIGHER. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY...WITH A GALE
WATCH IN EFFECT FOR GULF COASTAL WATERS ON SUNDAY. 12/DS

AVIATION...
23/00Z TAF ISSUANCE...CLOUDS INCREASED THIS AFTERNOON AND HAVE
STEADILY LOWERED...TO MVFR. BECOMING IFR TO LIFR OVERNIGHT AND
CONTINUING THROUGH NOON SUNDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING AND
BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS LATE...THEN THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING AFTER
ABOUT 23/09Z. BETWEEN 23/12Z-23/18Z A SQUALL LINE WILL LIKELY BE
MOVING EAST ACROSS THE FCST AREA WITH LIFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING.

12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      61  76  58  67  40 /  90  90  05  10  05
PENSACOLA   62  73  62  71  43 /  90  90  20  10  05
DESTIN      64  73  64  72  52 /  90  90  20  20  05
EVERGREEN   58  73  58  70  38 /  90  90  05  10  05
WAYNESBORO  58  77  52  65  38 /  90  90  05  10  05
CAMDEN      56  74  54  68  37 /  90  90  05  10  10
CRESTVIEW   62  73  61  71  41 /  90  90  20  10  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...NORTHERN MOBILE
     BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...PERDIDO BAY...SOUTHERN MOBILE
     BAY...

     GALE WATCH FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT
     20 NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20
     NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SUNDAY TO NOON MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA
     MS OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM
     20 TO 60 NM...

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMOB 230542 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1142 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...AFTER WAITING A FAIR AMOUNT OF TIME FOR CONVECTION TO BEGIN
TO DEVELOP MORE EXPANSIVELY OVER THE AREA...HAVE OPTED TO UPDATE NOW
AND DELAY THE BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS UNTIL LATE IN THE
NIGHT.  NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES. /29

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z ISSUANCE...
IFR CEILINGS PREVAIL THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH PRECIPITATION GRADUALLY
DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. WILL HAVE PREVAILING LIFR CONDITIONS IN
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING THEN MVFR CONDITIONS FOLLOW BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. EASTERLY WINDS NEAR 10-12 KNOTS BECOME SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT AND INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS BY EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...THEN BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. /29

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 552 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

AVIATION...
00Z ISSUANCE UPDATE...
A MIX OF MVFR CEILINGS BEGIN THE PERIOD EXCEPT FOR OCCASIONALLY LIFR
NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL BY 03Z
WITH THEN LOWER TO LIFR CONDITIONS AS A SQUALL LINE MOVES THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WITH MVFR CEILINGS IN THE
WAKE OF THE SQUALL LINE BY 18-20Z. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
SQUALL LINE. EASTERLY WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS SWITCH TO THE SOUTHEAST
NEAR 14-15 KNOTS AND GUSTY BY NEAR 12Z SUNDAY THEN BECOME SOUTHWEST
BY 18-20Z. /29

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

A RISK OF SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED SUNDAY MORNING...

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT]...STILL APPEARS TO BE BE
A THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE FCST AREA LATE TONIGHT THRU
MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON SUNDAY. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS
BACKED OFF OF THE ENHANCED THREAT OVERALL...BUT WE STILL FEEL LOCALLY
THAT THERE COULD BE A SMALLER AREA OF ENHANCED THREAT OVER OUR
AREA...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 84.

MODELS STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN MOVING A WARM FRONT TOWARD THE
COAST OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND COASTAL ALABAMA
BY AROUND SUNRISE SUNDAY. WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME OVERRUNNING RAIN OR
ELEVATED SHOWERS TONIGHT...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TO THE NORTH OF
THIS WARM FRONT...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING AND
BECOMING MORE SFC BASED ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES
ASHORE. MOST OF THIS STRONGER SFC BASED CONVECTION WILL BE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FCST AREA MAINLY BETWEEN 3AM-6AM SUNDAY.
DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS AS THE MOVE IN OFF THE GULF. DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON
SUNDAY...THE WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SURGE RAPIDLY NORTHWARD
THROUGH OUR FCST AREA...WITH THE ENTIRE AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE WARM SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM. STILL A LITTLE UNCERTAIN AS TO HOW
FAR INLAND THE BETTER INSTABILITIES MAKE IT...BUT WE FEEL PRETTY
CONFIDENT THAT IT WILL BE AT LEAST AS FAR INLAND AS THE HIGHWAY 84
CORRIDOR. AS THE INSTABILITY INCREASES...WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT THE
SUFFICIENT DYNAMICS AND SHEAR TO WARRANT MENTION OF SEVERE STORMS IN
THE WARM SECTOR. MODELS STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 850MB JET OF 50
TO 60 KNOTS OVER THE FCST AREA AROUND MIDDAY SUNDAY. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...NEGATIVELY TILTED TROF EJECTS ENERGY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION SUNDAY. THIS AND THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE EAST OF THE TROF
WILL HELP PRODUCE AMPLE VERTICAL LIFT.

BY AROUND 12Z (6 AM SUNDAY) WE EXPECT A SQUALL LINE THAT WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER DYNAMICS TO BE
MOVING INTO OUR SOUTHEAST MS COUNTIES...MOVING EAST INTO SOUTHWEST
AL BY AROUND 10 AM...THEN ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR
AND ACROSS THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE NOON TO 1 PM. BY AROUND 2
PM...MOST OF THE STRONGER ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF
OUR FCST AREA.

ISOLATED TORNADOES...SOME POTENTIALLY LONG TRACKED GIVEN SHEAR
PROFILES...POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED CELLS IN THE WARM SECTOR OUT AHEAD
OF THE SQUALL LINE AS WELL AS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SQUALL LINE
ITSELF. DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS ALSO POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE SQUALL LINE. INDIVIDUAL STORM CELLS WILL LIKELY
BE MOVING RATHER QUICKLY...40 TO 50 MPH TOWARD THE NORTHEAST.

SOME HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM...BUT
THE PROGRESSIVE MOVEMENT AND CURRENT DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA
WILL HELP TO SUPPRESS ANY WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING ISSUES.  1 TO 3
INCHES OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE...UP TO 4 INCHES ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
I-65 CORRIDOR. SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. MAIN THREAT
FROM HEAVY RAINS WILL BE MINOR...TEMPORARY URBAN FLOODING.

12/DS

[MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT]...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION
FROM THE WEST EARLY MONDAY MORNING WITH REINFORCING COOL AIR BEHIND
IT. THE FRONT WILL START MOVING IN EARLY MONDAY MORNING...AND WITH
THE 850 MB TROUGH CLEARING US BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WE EXPECT CLEARING
SKIES WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY IN THE LOW 70S IN THE
EAST...AND MID 60S BEHIND THE FRONT GENERALLY IN THE WESTERN HALF.
LOWS UPPER 30S INLAND AND LOWER 40S COASTAL. DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. 77/BD

LONG TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY]...EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM NEAR CRESTVIEW TO PENSACOLA
TUESDAY NIGHT AS A FAST MOVING UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES ALONG A
NORTHEASTWARD TRACK NOW FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA. COOL
CONDITIONS WITH MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES CONTINUING THROUGH THE LONG
TERM...WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER
60S...AND LOWS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOW 30S TO THE LOW 40S.
77/BD

MARINE...A STRONG AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC...WESTWARD TO EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
THIS EVENING WILL RESULT IN A MODERATE TO STRONG EAST SOUTHEAST FLOW
TONIGHT. THE HIGH MOVES EASTWARD ON SUNDAY AS A STRENGTHENING AREA OF
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PIVOTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MID SOUTH ON SUNDAY.
AS THIS OCCURS...WINDS TURN MORE ONSHORE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
AND REMAIN STRONG. WIND GUSTS COULD APPROACH GALE FORCE THROUGH MOST
OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY OVER THE GULF COASTAL WATERS OF ALABAMA AND
NORTHWEST FLORIDA. SEAS WILL TREND MUCH HIGHER. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY...WITH A GALE
WATCH IN EFFECT FOR GULF COASTAL WATERS ON SUNDAY. 12/DS

AVIATION...
23/00Z TAF ISSUANCE...CLOUDS INCREASED THIS AFTERNOON AND HAVE
STEADILY LOWERED...TO MVFR. BECOMING IFR TO LIFR OVERNIGHT AND
CONTINUING THROUGH NOON SUNDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING AND
BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS LATE...THEN THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING AFTER
ABOUT 23/09Z. BETWEEN 23/12Z-23/18Z A SQUALL LINE WILL LIKELY BE
MOVING EAST ACROSS THE FCST AREA WITH LIFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING.

12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      61  76  58  67  40 /  90  90  05  10  05
PENSACOLA   62  73  62  71  43 /  90  90  20  10  05
DESTIN      64  73  64  72  52 /  90  90  20  20  05
EVERGREEN   58  73  58  70  38 /  90  90  05  10  05
WAYNESBORO  58  77  52  65  38 /  90  90  05  10  05
CAMDEN      56  74  54  68  37 /  90  90  05  10  10
CRESTVIEW   62  73  61  71  41 /  90  90  20  10  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...NORTHERN MOBILE
     BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...PERDIDO BAY...SOUTHERN MOBILE
     BAY...

     GALE WATCH FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT
     20 NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20
     NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SUNDAY TO NOON MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA
     MS OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM
     20 TO 60 NM...

&&

$$










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