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000
FXUS64 KMOB 170933
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
433 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...FOR TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...
EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A SURFACE TROUGH HAS PUSHED
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND IS LOCATED ROUGHLY 60-80 MILES
OFFSHORE. MEANWHILE...SFC THETA-E OBS INDICATE A WEAK FRONT IS
LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS FRONT WILL GRADUALLY PUSH SOUTH
THIS MORNING...STALLING NEAR THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED STORM WILL BE LOCATED ALONG AND TO THE SOUTH
OF THE BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...A DEEP LAYER NW FLOW IS
USHERING IN DRIER MID-UPPER LEVEL AIR THAT WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT TODAY. THEREFORE...WILL ONLY INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
THUNDERSTORM OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DIMINISH BY
EVENING...WITH DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING TONIGHT. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT
AROUND 90 ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION...A FEW DEGREES COOLER
ALONG THE BEACHES.

DIURNAL COOLING WILL ALLOW FOR THE FRONT TO PUSH A LITTLE FURTHER
SOUTH TONIGHT...WITH A NE-SW GRADIENT IN DEWPOINTS SETTING
UP...LOWEST OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL AL COUNTIES. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOW-MID 60S FAR NE ZONES TO AROUND 70 ALONG THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE COASTAL COUNTIES. 34/JFB

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ENERGY IN THE SOUTHERN END OF THE EASTERN
UPPER TROUGH DIGS SOUTH...SEPARATING FROM THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
TROUGH (WHICH FILLS IN THE PROCESS). THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN CONUS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH SHIFTS EAST...WHILST
THE SOUTHERN END OF THE RIDGELINE STRETCHING SOUTHWEST OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS SHIFTS LITTLE. THE RESULT IS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
BECOMING ONSHORE OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY AND WESTERN HALF OF
THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW COMES AN INCREASE IN
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. TEMPERATURE REMAIN AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL
LEVELS...WITH THE AIRMASS THAT FILTERS SOUTH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
MORE DRY THAN COOL. THE SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT MOVED OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF CONTINUES TO REMAIN THE FOCUS FOR PRECIP...WHICH REMAINS
GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE LAND PORTION OF THE FA INTO FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT ON)...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING A COMBINATION OF THE REMAINS OF
ODILE MOVING OVER THE SOUTHERN US ROCKIES TO OVER THE PLAINS WORKING
WITH MORE ENERGY DIVING SOUTH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND THE UPPER
ENERGY OVER FL BEGINNING TO ORGANIZE ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFT SOUTH OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS...TO OVER THE TENN/CAROLINAS/GA AREA BY SUNDAY MORN. THIS HELPS
TO SWITCH THE GENERAL LOW LEVEL FLOW BACK TO NORTHEAST TO EAST OVER
THE FA AND LESSEN THE CHANCE OF RAIN INTO SUNDAY. TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE
SEASONAL LEVELS.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE REMAINS OF ODILE GET ABSORBED INTO THE
ENERGY WHICH DIGS SOUTH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS FROM OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. THIS ENERGY PUSHES A FRONT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER MISS
RIVER VALLEY AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS TO OVER
THE FA BY MONDAY EVENING. WITH THE MOISTURE SHUT OFF AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY...THE CHANCE FOR RAIN INCREASES...BUT ONLY TO AROUND
SEASONAL LEVELS FOR MONDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE BEGINS TO
DIVERGE...WITH THE GFS ADVERTISING THE UPPER ENERGY OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS ORGANIZING INTO A CLOSED LOW CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND...WHILST
THE ECMWF IS MORE PROGRESSIVE IN SWINGING THE ENERGY EAST...THROUGH
THE UPPER TROUGH. BOTH ADVERTISE THE SURFACE BOUNDARY STALLING OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEX...WHERE IT BECOMES THE FOCUS FOR PRECIP
THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED. WITH AN INCREASE OF PRECIP OVER
MAINLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA COMES AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER
AND TEMPS MODERATING BACK TO AROUND SEASONAL LEVELS THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE...PATCHY FOG/STRATUS AROUND 12Z WILL BURN OFF AFTER
SUNRISE WITH PREDOMINATE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON STORM...MAINLY
ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF AL/NW FL. PATCHY MVFR FOG WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE AFTER 06Z THU. 34/JFB


&&

.MARINE...A WEAK FRONT WILL LINGER NEAR THE COAST THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. LIGHT WINDS WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN...BECOMING OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE...BECOMING ONSHORE IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES BACK TO THE NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...RESULTING IN A MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY
WIND DEVELOPING. EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS (15-20 KT) ARE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...PRIMARILY OVER THE OPEN GULF WATERS.
WINDS DECREASE BY SUNDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE MARINE
AREA WEAKENS. SEAS GENERALLY 1-2 FT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY...
BUILDING TO 3-4 FT FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE
STRENGTHENING EAST WINDS. 34/JFB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      90  70  90  69  89 /  20  10  10  10  20
PENSACOLA   89  73  90  71  88 /  20  10  05  10  20
DESTIN      86  76  89  76  87 /  20  10  05  10  20
EVERGREEN   90  64  91  66  90 /  10  05  05  10  10
WAYNESBORO  90  68  91  65  91 /  10  05  10  10  10
CAMDEN      90  64  91  65  90 /  05  05  05  10  10
CRESTVIEW   90  65  92  67  90 /  20  10  05  10  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

34/16







000
FXUS64 KMOB 170454 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1145 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

AVIATION (17.06Z ISSUANCES)...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE TERMINALS
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS DUE TO THE WET GROUND CONDITIONS.
ONCE THE FOG CLEARS WEDNESDAY MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. /13

&&

.UPDATE...RAIN COVERAGE CONTINUES TO DECREASE AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD
THIS EVENING. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT TO ADJUST POPS BASED ON THE
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES WERE ALSO MADE
TO MATCH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE...DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA AS A FRONT SLOWLY MOVES SOUTHWARD WITH
RAIN CHANCES DECREASING SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. /13


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)...VERY LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED
WITH REGARD TO OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN TONIGHT AND AND MOST OF THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED TO OCNLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FCST AREA (PRIMARILY THE SOUTHERN HALF) THIS
EVENING WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THE LINGERING
STORMS EARLY THIS EVENING COULD BE STRONG WITH VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS. QUASI-
STATIONARY SFC FRONT THAT IS OVER THE FCST AREA WILL REMAIN
OVERNIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY BEGIN TO SLIP FURTHER TO THE SOUTH DURING
THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. DEEPER LAYER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL USHER IN
DRIER MID AND UPPER LEVEL AIR THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...AND WE
EXPECT LOWER RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW. FOR NOW GOING
WITH LOW END CHANCE POPS COASTAL ZONES WITH ONLY ISOLATED CHANCES
OVER THE INTERIOR. EVEN WITH THE FRONT OVER THE REGION...DEWPOINTS
STILL LOOK TO DROP A FEW DEGREES OVER FAR INLAND AREAS TONIGHT THEN
CONTINUE TO LOWER SLIGHTLY NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID
60S OVER NORTHERN THIRD OF THE FCST AREA...UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
ACROSS THE MIDDLE THIRD...AND LOW TO MID 70S SOUTHERN THIRD AND
COASTAL AREAS. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FCST AREA. 12/DS

(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...500 MB TROUGH WILL SWING
THROUGH OUR REGION PUSHING THE FRONT WELL OFFSHORE. BEHIND
IT...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE VERY LOW PRECIPITABLE WATER ABOUT
1.2 INCHES AND WEAK POST-FRONTAL ISENTROPIC SINKING. CHANCES OF RAIN
10% OR LESS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGHS GENERALLY 3
TO 4 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY IN THE LOWER 90S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BUT THURSDAY NIGHT WE EXPECT THEM TO BE BELOW
NORMAL BY ABOUT 2 OR 3 DEGREES...MID 60S INLAND AND LOWER 70S ALONG
THE COAST. MUCH OF THIS WILL DEPEND ON CLOUD COVER WHICH WE EXPECT TO
BE MOSTLY CLEAR...TO ALLOW OUTGOING INFRARED RADIATION. 77/BD

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...NO CHANGES. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHEAST CANADIAN PROVINCES AND GREAT
LAKES THURSDAY...EXPANDS INTO THE NORTHEAST AND BUILDS SOUTHWARD TO
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
THERE IS A BUILDING RIDGE AND WITH DAMPENING UPPER TROUGH. SAID
TROUGH LOOKS LIKE IT WILL DEEPEN AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
POSITIONS OF THESE SYSTEMS RELATIVE TO US MEANS CHANCES OF RAIN WILL
BE LOW EVEN THOUGH PRECIPITABLE WATER IS LOW. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL AFTERNOONS BUT IT APPEARS IT
IS NOT ENOUGH OF A CHANCE TO MENTION IN THE ZONES UNTIL SUNDAY AT
THE EARLIEST. THAT IS WHEN A SURFACE FRONT MOVES EASTWARD OUT OF THE
PLAINS ON SATURDAY...ENTERING THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY
AND CLOSER TO THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS
FRONT BRINGS A SMALL CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE OF CONVECTIVE RAIN
LATE IN THE MEDIUM RANGE. DAYTIME HIGHS STILL FORECAST TO BE A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY WITH UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S. OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE MID 60S INTERIOR TO LOWER HALF OF THE 70S COAST. 77/BD

MARINE...SEVERAL LARGE WATERSPOUTS DEVELOPED OVER THE IMMEDIATE
COASTAL WATERS OF THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND WITH VERY
LITTLE CHANGES TO OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...EXPECT THE ENVIRONMENT TO AGAIN BE FAVORABLE FOR MORE
WATERSPOUTS IN THE MORNING. OTHERWISE...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY/TROF TO
THE NORTH OF THE MARINE AREA TODAY WILL LINGER NEAR THE MARINE AREA
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY PUSH OFFSHORE
DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS...RESULTING IN A NW/N FLOW...AND MOVE BACK
NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...VEERING WINDS TO THE W/SW. A
STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD
AND DOWN INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. A
STRONGER EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE...WITH EXERCISE CAUTION
CONDITIONS (15-20 KT) DEVELOPING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE OPEN GULF WATERS. NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT WITH STORM CHANCES
DECREASING FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      71  91  70  90  69 /  40  30  10  10  20
PENSACOLA   73  91  73  89  72 /  40  30  05  05  10
DESTIN      75  90  73  89  72 /  40  30  05  05  10
EVERGREEN   69  91  64  91  64 /  30  20  05  05  10
WAYNESBORO  68  91  65  91  65 /  20  20  05  10  10
CAMDEN      67  91  64  91  64 /  20  10  05  05  10
CRESTVIEW   69  92  66  92  63 /  30  30  05  05  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$












000
FXUS64 KMOB 170454 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1145 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

AVIATION (17.06Z ISSUANCES)...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE TERMINALS
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS DUE TO THE WET GROUND CONDITIONS.
ONCE THE FOG CLEARS WEDNESDAY MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. /13

&&

.UPDATE...RAIN COVERAGE CONTINUES TO DECREASE AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD
THIS EVENING. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT TO ADJUST POPS BASED ON THE
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES WERE ALSO MADE
TO MATCH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE...DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA AS A FRONT SLOWLY MOVES SOUTHWARD WITH
RAIN CHANCES DECREASING SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. /13


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)...VERY LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED
WITH REGARD TO OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN TONIGHT AND AND MOST OF THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED TO OCNLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FCST AREA (PRIMARILY THE SOUTHERN HALF) THIS
EVENING WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THE LINGERING
STORMS EARLY THIS EVENING COULD BE STRONG WITH VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS. QUASI-
STATIONARY SFC FRONT THAT IS OVER THE FCST AREA WILL REMAIN
OVERNIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY BEGIN TO SLIP FURTHER TO THE SOUTH DURING
THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. DEEPER LAYER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL USHER IN
DRIER MID AND UPPER LEVEL AIR THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...AND WE
EXPECT LOWER RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW. FOR NOW GOING
WITH LOW END CHANCE POPS COASTAL ZONES WITH ONLY ISOLATED CHANCES
OVER THE INTERIOR. EVEN WITH THE FRONT OVER THE REGION...DEWPOINTS
STILL LOOK TO DROP A FEW DEGREES OVER FAR INLAND AREAS TONIGHT THEN
CONTINUE TO LOWER SLIGHTLY NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID
60S OVER NORTHERN THIRD OF THE FCST AREA...UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
ACROSS THE MIDDLE THIRD...AND LOW TO MID 70S SOUTHERN THIRD AND
COASTAL AREAS. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FCST AREA. 12/DS

(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...500 MB TROUGH WILL SWING
THROUGH OUR REGION PUSHING THE FRONT WELL OFFSHORE. BEHIND
IT...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE VERY LOW PRECIPITABLE WATER ABOUT
1.2 INCHES AND WEAK POST-FRONTAL ISENTROPIC SINKING. CHANCES OF RAIN
10% OR LESS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGHS GENERALLY 3
TO 4 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY IN THE LOWER 90S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BUT THURSDAY NIGHT WE EXPECT THEM TO BE BELOW
NORMAL BY ABOUT 2 OR 3 DEGREES...MID 60S INLAND AND LOWER 70S ALONG
THE COAST. MUCH OF THIS WILL DEPEND ON CLOUD COVER WHICH WE EXPECT TO
BE MOSTLY CLEAR...TO ALLOW OUTGOING INFRARED RADIATION. 77/BD

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...NO CHANGES. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHEAST CANADIAN PROVINCES AND GREAT
LAKES THURSDAY...EXPANDS INTO THE NORTHEAST AND BUILDS SOUTHWARD TO
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
THERE IS A BUILDING RIDGE AND WITH DAMPENING UPPER TROUGH. SAID
TROUGH LOOKS LIKE IT WILL DEEPEN AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
POSITIONS OF THESE SYSTEMS RELATIVE TO US MEANS CHANCES OF RAIN WILL
BE LOW EVEN THOUGH PRECIPITABLE WATER IS LOW. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL AFTERNOONS BUT IT APPEARS IT
IS NOT ENOUGH OF A CHANCE TO MENTION IN THE ZONES UNTIL SUNDAY AT
THE EARLIEST. THAT IS WHEN A SURFACE FRONT MOVES EASTWARD OUT OF THE
PLAINS ON SATURDAY...ENTERING THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY
AND CLOSER TO THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS
FRONT BRINGS A SMALL CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE OF CONVECTIVE RAIN
LATE IN THE MEDIUM RANGE. DAYTIME HIGHS STILL FORECAST TO BE A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY WITH UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S. OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE MID 60S INTERIOR TO LOWER HALF OF THE 70S COAST. 77/BD

MARINE...SEVERAL LARGE WATERSPOUTS DEVELOPED OVER THE IMMEDIATE
COASTAL WATERS OF THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND WITH VERY
LITTLE CHANGES TO OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...EXPECT THE ENVIRONMENT TO AGAIN BE FAVORABLE FOR MORE
WATERSPOUTS IN THE MORNING. OTHERWISE...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY/TROF TO
THE NORTH OF THE MARINE AREA TODAY WILL LINGER NEAR THE MARINE AREA
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY PUSH OFFSHORE
DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS...RESULTING IN A NW/N FLOW...AND MOVE BACK
NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...VEERING WINDS TO THE W/SW. A
STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD
AND DOWN INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. A
STRONGER EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE...WITH EXERCISE CAUTION
CONDITIONS (15-20 KT) DEVELOPING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE OPEN GULF WATERS. NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT WITH STORM CHANCES
DECREASING FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      71  91  70  90  69 /  40  30  10  10  20
PENSACOLA   73  91  73  89  72 /  40  30  05  05  10
DESTIN      75  90  73  89  72 /  40  30  05  05  10
EVERGREEN   69  91  64  91  64 /  30  20  05  05  10
WAYNESBORO  68  91  65  91  65 /  20  20  05  10  10
CAMDEN      67  91  64  91  64 /  20  10  05  05  10
CRESTVIEW   69  92  66  92  63 /  30  30  05  05  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$













000
FXUS64 KMOB 170325 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1025 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.UPDATE...RAIN COVERAGE CONTINUES TO DECREASE AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD
THIS EVENING. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT TO ADJUST POPS BASED ON THE
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES WERE ALSO MADE
TO MATCH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE...DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA AS A FRONT SLOWLY MOVES SOUTHWARD WITH
RAIN CHANCES DECREASING SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. /13


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)...VERY LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED
WITH REGARD TO OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN TONIGHT AND AND MOST OF THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED TO OCNLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FCST AREA (PRIMARILY THE SOUTHERN HALF) THIS
EVENING WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THE LINGERING
STORMS EARLY THIS EVENING COULD BE STRONG WITH VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS. QUASI-
STATIONARY SFC FRONT THAT IS OVER THE FCST AREA WILL REMAIN
OVERNIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY BEGIN TO SLIP FURTHER TO THE SOUTH DURING
THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. DEEPER LAYER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL USHER IN
DRIER MID AND UPPER LEVEL AIR THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...AND WE
EXPECT LOWER RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW. FOR NOW GOING
WITH LOW END CHANCE POPS COASTAL ZONES WITH ONLY ISOLATED CHANCES
OVER THE INTERIOR. EVEN WITH THE FRONT OVER THE REGION...DEWPOINTS
STILL LOOK TO DROP A FEW DEGREES OVER FAR INLAND AREAS TONIGHT THEN
CONTINUE TO LOWER SLIGHTLY NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID
60S OVER NORTHERN THIRD OF THE FCST AREA...UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
ACROSS THE MIDDLE THIRD...AND LOW TO MID 70S SOUTHERN THIRD AND
COASTAL AREAS. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FCST AREA. 12/DS

(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...500 MB TROUGH WILL SWING
THROUGH OUR REGION PUSHING THE FRONT WELL OFFSHORE. BEHIND
IT...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE VERY LOW PRECIPITABLE WATER ABOUT
1.2 INCHES AND WEAK POST-FRONTAL ISENTROPIC SINKING. CHANCES OF RAIN
10% OR LESS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGHS GENERALLY 3
TO 4 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY IN THE LOWER 90S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BUT THURSDAY NIGHT WE EXPECT THEM TO BE BELOW
NORMAL BY ABOUT 2 OR 3 DEGREES...MID 60S INLAND AND LOWER 70S ALONG
THE COAST. MUCH OF THIS WILL DEPEND ON CLOUD COVER WHICH WE EXPECT TO
BE MOSTLY CLEAR...TO ALLOW OUTGOING INFRARED RADIATION. 77/BD

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...NO CHANGES. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHEAST CANADIAN PROVINCES AND GREAT
LAKES THURSDAY...EXPANDS INTO THE NORTHEAST AND BUILDS SOUTHWARD TO
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
THERE IS A BUILDING RIDGE AND WITH DAMPENING UPPER TROUGH. SAID
TROUGH LOOKS LIKE IT WILL DEEPEN AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
POSITIONS OF THESE SYSTEMS RELATIVE TO US MEANS CHANCES OF RAIN WILL
BE LOW EVEN THOUGH PRECIPITABLE WATER IS LOW. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL AFTERNOONS BUT IT APPEARS IT
IS NOT ENOUGH OF A CHANCE TO MENTION IN THE ZONES UNTIL SUNDAY AT
THE EARLIEST. THAT IS WHEN A SURFACE FRONT MOVES EASTWARD OUT OF THE
PLAINS ON SATURDAY...ENTERING THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY
AND CLOSER TO THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS
FRONT BRINGS A SMALL CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE OF CONVECTIVE RAIN
LATE IN THE MEDIUM RANGE. DAYTIME HIGHS STILL FORECAST TO BE A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY WITH UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S. OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE MID 60S INTERIOR TO LOWER HALF OF THE 70S COAST. 77/BD

MARINE...SEVERAL LARGE WATERSPOUTS DEVELOPED OVER THE IMMEDIATE
COASTAL WATERS OF THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND WITH VERY
LITTLE CHANGES TO OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...EXPECT THE ENVIRONMENT TO AGAIN BE FAVORABLE FOR MORE
WATERSPOUTS IN THE MORNING. OTHERWISE...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY/TROF TO
THE NORTH OF THE MARINE AREA TODAY WILL LINGER NEAR THE MARINE AREA
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY PUSH OFFSHORE
DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS...RESULTING IN A NW/N FLOW...AND MOVE BACK
NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...VEERING WINDS TO THE W/SW. A
STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD
AND DOWN INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. A
STRONGER EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE...WITH EXERCISE CAUTION
CONDITIONS (15-20 KT) DEVELOPING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE OPEN GULF WATERS. NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT WITH STORM CHANCES
DECREASING FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. 12/DS

AVIATION (16/18Z AND 17/00Z ISSUANCES)...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHRA/TSRA OVER SOUTHERN HALF OF FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING...PARTICULARLY CLOSER TO THE COAST. GENERAL VFR
CONDITIONS...BUT IFR TO EVEN OCNLY LIFR IN AND NEAR STRONGER SHOWERS
AND STORMS THROUGH AROUND 01Z. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS LATER TONIGHT
(SOME PATCHY LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE) AND INTO WEDNESDAY. AFTER 17/18Z
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA AGAIN A POSSIBILITY. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      71  91  70  90  69 /  40  30  10  10  20
PENSACOLA   73  91  73  89  72 /  40  30  05  05  10
DESTIN      75  90  73  89  72 /  40  30  05  05  10
EVERGREEN   69  91  64  91  64 /  30  20  05  05  10
WAYNESBORO  68  91  65  91  65 /  20  20  05  10  10
CAMDEN      67  91  64  91  64 /  20  10  05  05  10
CRESTVIEW   69  92  66  92  63 /  30  30  05  05  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMOB 170325 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1025 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.UPDATE...RAIN COVERAGE CONTINUES TO DECREASE AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD
THIS EVENING. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT TO ADJUST POPS BASED ON THE
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES WERE ALSO MADE
TO MATCH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE...DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA AS A FRONT SLOWLY MOVES SOUTHWARD WITH
RAIN CHANCES DECREASING SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. /13


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)...VERY LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED
WITH REGARD TO OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN TONIGHT AND AND MOST OF THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED TO OCNLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FCST AREA (PRIMARILY THE SOUTHERN HALF) THIS
EVENING WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THE LINGERING
STORMS EARLY THIS EVENING COULD BE STRONG WITH VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS. QUASI-
STATIONARY SFC FRONT THAT IS OVER THE FCST AREA WILL REMAIN
OVERNIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY BEGIN TO SLIP FURTHER TO THE SOUTH DURING
THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. DEEPER LAYER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL USHER IN
DRIER MID AND UPPER LEVEL AIR THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...AND WE
EXPECT LOWER RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW. FOR NOW GOING
WITH LOW END CHANCE POPS COASTAL ZONES WITH ONLY ISOLATED CHANCES
OVER THE INTERIOR. EVEN WITH THE FRONT OVER THE REGION...DEWPOINTS
STILL LOOK TO DROP A FEW DEGREES OVER FAR INLAND AREAS TONIGHT THEN
CONTINUE TO LOWER SLIGHTLY NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID
60S OVER NORTHERN THIRD OF THE FCST AREA...UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
ACROSS THE MIDDLE THIRD...AND LOW TO MID 70S SOUTHERN THIRD AND
COASTAL AREAS. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FCST AREA. 12/DS

(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...500 MB TROUGH WILL SWING
THROUGH OUR REGION PUSHING THE FRONT WELL OFFSHORE. BEHIND
IT...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE VERY LOW PRECIPITABLE WATER ABOUT
1.2 INCHES AND WEAK POST-FRONTAL ISENTROPIC SINKING. CHANCES OF RAIN
10% OR LESS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGHS GENERALLY 3
TO 4 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY IN THE LOWER 90S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BUT THURSDAY NIGHT WE EXPECT THEM TO BE BELOW
NORMAL BY ABOUT 2 OR 3 DEGREES...MID 60S INLAND AND LOWER 70S ALONG
THE COAST. MUCH OF THIS WILL DEPEND ON CLOUD COVER WHICH WE EXPECT TO
BE MOSTLY CLEAR...TO ALLOW OUTGOING INFRARED RADIATION. 77/BD

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...NO CHANGES. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHEAST CANADIAN PROVINCES AND GREAT
LAKES THURSDAY...EXPANDS INTO THE NORTHEAST AND BUILDS SOUTHWARD TO
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
THERE IS A BUILDING RIDGE AND WITH DAMPENING UPPER TROUGH. SAID
TROUGH LOOKS LIKE IT WILL DEEPEN AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
POSITIONS OF THESE SYSTEMS RELATIVE TO US MEANS CHANCES OF RAIN WILL
BE LOW EVEN THOUGH PRECIPITABLE WATER IS LOW. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL AFTERNOONS BUT IT APPEARS IT
IS NOT ENOUGH OF A CHANCE TO MENTION IN THE ZONES UNTIL SUNDAY AT
THE EARLIEST. THAT IS WHEN A SURFACE FRONT MOVES EASTWARD OUT OF THE
PLAINS ON SATURDAY...ENTERING THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY
AND CLOSER TO THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS
FRONT BRINGS A SMALL CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE OF CONVECTIVE RAIN
LATE IN THE MEDIUM RANGE. DAYTIME HIGHS STILL FORECAST TO BE A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY WITH UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S. OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE MID 60S INTERIOR TO LOWER HALF OF THE 70S COAST. 77/BD

MARINE...SEVERAL LARGE WATERSPOUTS DEVELOPED OVER THE IMMEDIATE
COASTAL WATERS OF THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND WITH VERY
LITTLE CHANGES TO OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...EXPECT THE ENVIRONMENT TO AGAIN BE FAVORABLE FOR MORE
WATERSPOUTS IN THE MORNING. OTHERWISE...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY/TROF TO
THE NORTH OF THE MARINE AREA TODAY WILL LINGER NEAR THE MARINE AREA
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY PUSH OFFSHORE
DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS...RESULTING IN A NW/N FLOW...AND MOVE BACK
NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...VEERING WINDS TO THE W/SW. A
STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD
AND DOWN INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. A
STRONGER EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE...WITH EXERCISE CAUTION
CONDITIONS (15-20 KT) DEVELOPING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE OPEN GULF WATERS. NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT WITH STORM CHANCES
DECREASING FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. 12/DS

AVIATION (16/18Z AND 17/00Z ISSUANCES)...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHRA/TSRA OVER SOUTHERN HALF OF FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING...PARTICULARLY CLOSER TO THE COAST. GENERAL VFR
CONDITIONS...BUT IFR TO EVEN OCNLY LIFR IN AND NEAR STRONGER SHOWERS
AND STORMS THROUGH AROUND 01Z. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS LATER TONIGHT
(SOME PATCHY LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE) AND INTO WEDNESDAY. AFTER 17/18Z
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA AGAIN A POSSIBILITY. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      71  91  70  90  69 /  40  30  10  10  20
PENSACOLA   73  91  73  89  72 /  40  30  05  05  10
DESTIN      75  90  73  89  72 /  40  30  05  05  10
EVERGREEN   69  91  64  91  64 /  30  20  05  05  10
WAYNESBORO  68  91  65  91  65 /  20  20  05  10  10
CAMDEN      67  91  64  91  64 /  20  10  05  05  10
CRESTVIEW   69  92  66  92  63 /  30  30  05  05  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KMOB 162059
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
359 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)...VERY LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED
WITH REGARD TO OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN TONIGHT AND AND MOST OF THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED TO OCNLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FCST AREA (PRIMARILY THE SOUTHERN HALF) THIS
EVENING WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THE LINGERING
STORMS EARLY THIS EVENING COULD BE STRONG WITH VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS. QUASI-
STATIONARY SFC FRONT THAT IS OVER THE FCST AREA WILL REMAIN
OVERNIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY BEGIN TO SLIP FURTHER TO THE SOUTH DURING
THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. DEEPER LAYER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL USHER IN
DRIER MID AND UPPER LEVEL AIR THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...AND WE
EXPECT LOWER RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW. FOR NOW GOING
WITH LOW END CHANCE POPS COASTAL ZONES WITH ONLY ISOLATED CHANCES
OVER THE INTERIOR. EVEN WITH THE FRONT OVER THE REGION...DEWPOINTS
STILL LOOK TO DROP A FEW DEGREES OVER FAR INLAND AREAS TONIGHT THEN
CONTINUE TO LOWER SLIGHTLY NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID
60S OVER NORTHERN THIRD OF THE FCST AREA...UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
ACROSS THE MIDDLE THIRD...AND LOW TO MID 70S SOUTHERN THIRD AND
COASTAL AREAS. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FCST AREA. 12/DS

(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...500 MB TROUGH WILL SWING
THROUGH OUR REGION PUSHING THE FRONT WELL OFFSHORE. BEHIND
IT...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE VERY LOW PRECIPITABLE WATER ABOUT
1.2 INCHES AND WEAK POST-FRONTAL ISENTROPIC SINKING. CHANCES OF RAIN
10% OR LESS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGHS GENERALLY 3
TO 4 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY IN THE LOWER 90S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BUT THURSDAY NIGHT WE EXPECT THEM TO BE BELOW
NORMAL BY ABOUT 2 OR 3 DEGREES...MID 60S INLAND AND LOWER 70S ALONG
THE COAST. MUCH OF THIS WILL DEPEND ON CLOUD COVER WHICH WE EXPECT TO
BE MOSTLY CLEAR...TO ALLOW OUTGOING INFRARED RADIATION. 77/BD

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...NO CHANGES. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHEAST CANADIAN PROVINCES AND GREAT
LAKES THURSDAY...EXPANDS INTO THE NORTHEAST AND BUILDS SOUTHWARD TO
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
THERE IS A BUILDING RIDGE AND WITH DAMPENING UPPER TROUGH. SAID
TROUGH LOOKS LIKE IT WILL DEEPEN AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
POSITIONS OF THESE SYSTEMS RELATIVE TO US MEANS CHANCES OF RAIN WILL
BE LOW EVEN THOUGH PRECIPITABLE WATER IS LOW. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL AFTERNOONS BUT IT APPEARS IT
IS NOT ENOUGH OF A CHANCE TO MENTION IN THE ZONES UNTIL SUNDAY AT
THE EARLIEST. THAT IS WHEN A SURFACE FRONT MOVES EASTWARD OUT OF THE
PLAINS ON SATURDAY...ENTERING THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY
AND CLOSER TO THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS
FRONT BRINGS A SMALL CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE OF CONVECTIVE RAIN
LATE IN THE MEDIUM RANGE. DAYTIME HIGHS STILL FORECAST TO BE A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY WITH UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S. OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE MID 60S INTERIOR TO LOWER HALF OF THE 70S COAST. 77/BD

&&

.MARINE...SEVERAL LARGE WATERSPOUTS DEVELOPED OVER THE IMMEDIATE
COASTAL WATERS OF THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND WITH VERY
LITTLE CHANGES TO OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...EXPECT THE ENVIRONMENT TO AGAIN BE FAVORABLE FOR MORE
WATERSPOUTS IN THE MORNING. OTHERWISE...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY/TROF TO
THE NORTH OF THE MARINE AREA TODAY WILL LINGER NEAR THE MARINE AREA
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY PUSH OFFSHORE
DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS...RESULTING IN A NW/N FLOW...AND MOVE BACK
NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...VEERING WINDS TO THE W/SW. A
STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD
AND DOWN INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. A
STRONGER EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE...WITH EXERCISE CAUTION
CONDITIONS (15-20 KT) DEVELOPING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE OPEN GULF WATERS. NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT WITH STORM CHANCES
DECREASING FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. 12/DS

&&

.AVIATION (16/18Z AND 17/00Z ISSUANCES)...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHRA/TSRA OVER SOUTHERN HALF OF FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING...PARTICULARLY CLOSER TO THE COAST. GENERAL VFR
CONDITIONS...BUT IFR TO EVEN OCNLY LIFR IN AND NEAR STRONGER SHOWERS
AND STORMS THROUGH AROUND 01Z. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS LATER TONIGHT
(SOME PATCHY LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE) AND INTO WEDNESDAY. AFTER 17/18Z
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA AGAIN A POSSIBILITY. 12/DS

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      72  91  70  90  69 /  40  30  10  10  20
PENSACOLA   73  91  73  89  72 /  40  30  05  05  10
DESTIN      75  90  73  89  72 /  40  30  05  05  10
EVERGREEN   67  91  64  91  64 /  30  20  05  05  10
WAYNESBORO  65  91  65  91  65 /  20  20  05  10  10
CAMDEN      67  91  64  91  64 /  20  10  05  05  10
CRESTVIEW   69  92  66  92  63 /  30  30  05  05  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMOB 162059
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
359 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)...VERY LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED
WITH REGARD TO OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN TONIGHT AND AND MOST OF THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED TO OCNLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FCST AREA (PRIMARILY THE SOUTHERN HALF) THIS
EVENING WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THE LINGERING
STORMS EARLY THIS EVENING COULD BE STRONG WITH VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS. QUASI-
STATIONARY SFC FRONT THAT IS OVER THE FCST AREA WILL REMAIN
OVERNIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY BEGIN TO SLIP FURTHER TO THE SOUTH DURING
THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. DEEPER LAYER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL USHER IN
DRIER MID AND UPPER LEVEL AIR THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...AND WE
EXPECT LOWER RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW. FOR NOW GOING
WITH LOW END CHANCE POPS COASTAL ZONES WITH ONLY ISOLATED CHANCES
OVER THE INTERIOR. EVEN WITH THE FRONT OVER THE REGION...DEWPOINTS
STILL LOOK TO DROP A FEW DEGREES OVER FAR INLAND AREAS TONIGHT THEN
CONTINUE TO LOWER SLIGHTLY NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID
60S OVER NORTHERN THIRD OF THE FCST AREA...UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
ACROSS THE MIDDLE THIRD...AND LOW TO MID 70S SOUTHERN THIRD AND
COASTAL AREAS. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FCST AREA. 12/DS

(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...500 MB TROUGH WILL SWING
THROUGH OUR REGION PUSHING THE FRONT WELL OFFSHORE. BEHIND
IT...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE VERY LOW PRECIPITABLE WATER ABOUT
1.2 INCHES AND WEAK POST-FRONTAL ISENTROPIC SINKING. CHANCES OF RAIN
10% OR LESS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGHS GENERALLY 3
TO 4 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY IN THE LOWER 90S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BUT THURSDAY NIGHT WE EXPECT THEM TO BE BELOW
NORMAL BY ABOUT 2 OR 3 DEGREES...MID 60S INLAND AND LOWER 70S ALONG
THE COAST. MUCH OF THIS WILL DEPEND ON CLOUD COVER WHICH WE EXPECT TO
BE MOSTLY CLEAR...TO ALLOW OUTGOING INFRARED RADIATION. 77/BD

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...NO CHANGES. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHEAST CANADIAN PROVINCES AND GREAT
LAKES THURSDAY...EXPANDS INTO THE NORTHEAST AND BUILDS SOUTHWARD TO
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
THERE IS A BUILDING RIDGE AND WITH DAMPENING UPPER TROUGH. SAID
TROUGH LOOKS LIKE IT WILL DEEPEN AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
POSITIONS OF THESE SYSTEMS RELATIVE TO US MEANS CHANCES OF RAIN WILL
BE LOW EVEN THOUGH PRECIPITABLE WATER IS LOW. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL AFTERNOONS BUT IT APPEARS IT
IS NOT ENOUGH OF A CHANCE TO MENTION IN THE ZONES UNTIL SUNDAY AT
THE EARLIEST. THAT IS WHEN A SURFACE FRONT MOVES EASTWARD OUT OF THE
PLAINS ON SATURDAY...ENTERING THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY
AND CLOSER TO THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS
FRONT BRINGS A SMALL CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE OF CONVECTIVE RAIN
LATE IN THE MEDIUM RANGE. DAYTIME HIGHS STILL FORECAST TO BE A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY WITH UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S. OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE MID 60S INTERIOR TO LOWER HALF OF THE 70S COAST. 77/BD

&&

.MARINE...SEVERAL LARGE WATERSPOUTS DEVELOPED OVER THE IMMEDIATE
COASTAL WATERS OF THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND WITH VERY
LITTLE CHANGES TO OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...EXPECT THE ENVIRONMENT TO AGAIN BE FAVORABLE FOR MORE
WATERSPOUTS IN THE MORNING. OTHERWISE...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY/TROF TO
THE NORTH OF THE MARINE AREA TODAY WILL LINGER NEAR THE MARINE AREA
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY PUSH OFFSHORE
DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS...RESULTING IN A NW/N FLOW...AND MOVE BACK
NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...VEERING WINDS TO THE W/SW. A
STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD
AND DOWN INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. A
STRONGER EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE...WITH EXERCISE CAUTION
CONDITIONS (15-20 KT) DEVELOPING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE OPEN GULF WATERS. NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT WITH STORM CHANCES
DECREASING FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. 12/DS

&&

.AVIATION (16/18Z AND 17/00Z ISSUANCES)...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHRA/TSRA OVER SOUTHERN HALF OF FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING...PARTICULARLY CLOSER TO THE COAST. GENERAL VFR
CONDITIONS...BUT IFR TO EVEN OCNLY LIFR IN AND NEAR STRONGER SHOWERS
AND STORMS THROUGH AROUND 01Z. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS LATER TONIGHT
(SOME PATCHY LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE) AND INTO WEDNESDAY. AFTER 17/18Z
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA AGAIN A POSSIBILITY. 12/DS

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      72  91  70  90  69 /  40  30  10  10  20
PENSACOLA   73  91  73  89  72 /  40  30  05  05  10
DESTIN      75  90  73  89  72 /  40  30  05  05  10
EVERGREEN   67  91  64  91  64 /  30  20  05  05  10
WAYNESBORO  65  91  65  91  65 /  20  20  05  10  10
CAMDEN      67  91  64  91  64 /  20  10  05  05  10
CRESTVIEW   69  92  66  92  63 /  30  30  05  05  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMOB 160927
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
427 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM [TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT]...EARLY MORNING SFC
ANALYSIS DEPICTS A SFC TROUGH DRAPED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. IT IS HARD TO DESCRIBE THIS AS A FRONT GIVEN ANY
APPRECIABLE AIRMASS CHANGE IS LOCATED WELL TO THE NORTH ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN MS/AL. GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE TROUGH WILL
BECOME ENHANCED THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO PEAK HEATING. IN
ADDITION...MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THAT HAS BEEN PERSISTENT
ACROSS THE REGION WILL ERODE TODAY AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH AMPLIFIES
FURTHER ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES. THE COMBINATION OF THE SFC
TROUGH...LOWERING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS...PRECIPITABLE WATERS NEAR 2
INCHES...AND MLCAPES APPROACHING 2000 J/KG...ALL SUGGEST NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON (ALONG AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE
SFC TROUGH). WILL MAINTAIN THE PREVIOUSLY FORECAST 60% RAIN CHANCES
FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...WITH CHANCES A LITTLE LOWER OVER
THE NORTHERN HALF. HOWEVER...SCATTERED STORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER
THIS AREA GIVEN SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY.
FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS
FROM THE STORMS TODAY. LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY
AREAS WERE NUMEROUS STORMS MOVE ACROSS THE SAME LOCATION.

DEEP LAYER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL USHER IN DRIER MID AND UPPER
LEVEL AIR BY TONIGHT...RESULTING IN DECREASING RAIN CHANCES. WILL
MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF STORMS ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES THIS
EVENING...WITH MOST STORMS DISSIPATING OR PUSHING OFFSHORE AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WHILE THE SFC TROUGH ALSO PUSHES SOUTH...THE SIGNIFICANTLY
DRIER SFC AIRMASS IS PROGGED TO STAY TO OUR NORTH...BUT DEWPOINTS
WILL DROP A FEW DEGREES ESPECIALLY OVER FAR INLAND AREAS OVERNIGHT.

USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS TODAY IN THE UPPER 80S
TO AROUND 90 WITH LOWS TONIGHT UPPER 60S FAR INLAND AND LOW TO MID
70S ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES. 34/JFB

UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS BRINGS LOWERING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS AS FAR SOUTH
AS FLORIDA DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE LOWERING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES...THERE STILL
REMAINS ENOUGH ALONG THE COASTAL ZONES...WHICH WHEN COMBINED WITH
WEAK LIFT BY A SURFACE COASTAL TROF AND A NARROW ZONE OF
INSTABILITY...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON STORMS IS FORECAST.
CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS LOWER TO 10% OR LESS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
DAYTIME HIGHS GENERALLY ABOUT 3 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY WITH
NUMBERS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 90S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT RANGE FROM 64
TO 68 INTERIOR TO LOWER HALF OF THE 70S COAST. /10

.LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER
THE SOUTHEAST CANADIAN PROVINCES AND GREAT LAKES THURSDAY...EXPANDS
INTO THE NORTHEAST AND BUILDS SOUTHWARD TO ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
AND SOUTHEAST FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. CONSIDERING THE BUILDING
RIDGE AND WITH UPPER TROF POSITIONED FROM THE EAST COAST...SOUTHWARD TO
FLORIDA FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...CHANCES OF STORMS WILL BE
LOW. ALTHOUGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE LOWER...STILL CANNOT RULE
OUT A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS BUT APPEARS NOT
ENOUGH OF A CHANCE TO MENTION IN THE ZONES AT THIS TIME.

A SURFACE FRONT MOVES EASTWARD OUT OF THE PLAINS ON SATURDAY...ENTERING
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY AND CLOSER TO THE FORECAST AREA
BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS FRONT...BRINGS A SMALL CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE MEDIUM RANGE. DAYTIME HIGHS STILL FORECAST
TO BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY WITH UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 60S INTERIOR TO LOWER HALF OF THE 70S
COAST. /10

&&

.AVIATION [16.12Z KMOB/KBFM/KPNS TAF ISSUANCE]...PREDOMINATE VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER...NUMEROUS
STORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...WITH STORMS LIKELY AFFECTING
MOB/BFM/PNS AT TIMES LATE MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. BRIEF PERIODS
OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN THE STRONGER STORMS. STORM CHANCES
DECREASE TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE AFTER 06Z WED...WHICH WILL
LOCALLY RESTRICT VSBYS TO MVFR-IFR LEVELS. 34/JFB

&&

.MARINE...A SURFACE TROUGH/WEAK COLD FRONT WILL LINGER NEAR THE
MARINE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE TROUGH WILL PUSH
OFFSHORE DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS...RESULTING IN A NW/N FLOW...AND
MOVE BACK NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...VEERING WINDS TO THE W/SW.
A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN
SEABOARD AND DOWN INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. A STRONGER EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE...WITH EXERCISE
CAUTION CONDITIONS (15-20 KT) DEVELOPING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE OPEN GULF WATERS. NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH STORM CHANCES DECREASING FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

RESIDUAL LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL KEEP SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS IN THE
2-3 FT RANGE TODAY. SEAS DECREASE TO 1-2 FT WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY BUT BUILD TO 3-5 FT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...HIGHEST OVER
THE ALABAMA GULF WATERS WHERE THE EASTERLY FETCH WILL BE MAXIMIZED.
34/JFB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      89  71  92  70  90 /  60  30  20  10  10
PENSACOLA   88  73  92  73  89 /  60  40  20  10  10
DESTIN      88  76  89  74  89 /  60  40  20  10  10
EVERGREEN   89  68  93  65  91 /  50  20  10  10  10
WAYNESBORO  90  68  91  64  91 /  40  20  10  10  10
CAMDEN      89  68  92  65  91 /  40  20  10  10  05
CRESTVIEW   90  68  94  68  92 /  60  30  20  10  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMOB 160927
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
427 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM [TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT]...EARLY MORNING SFC
ANALYSIS DEPICTS A SFC TROUGH DRAPED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. IT IS HARD TO DESCRIBE THIS AS A FRONT GIVEN ANY
APPRECIABLE AIRMASS CHANGE IS LOCATED WELL TO THE NORTH ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN MS/AL. GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE TROUGH WILL
BECOME ENHANCED THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO PEAK HEATING. IN
ADDITION...MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THAT HAS BEEN PERSISTENT
ACROSS THE REGION WILL ERODE TODAY AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH AMPLIFIES
FURTHER ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES. THE COMBINATION OF THE SFC
TROUGH...LOWERING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS...PRECIPITABLE WATERS NEAR 2
INCHES...AND MLCAPES APPROACHING 2000 J/KG...ALL SUGGEST NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON (ALONG AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE
SFC TROUGH). WILL MAINTAIN THE PREVIOUSLY FORECAST 60% RAIN CHANCES
FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...WITH CHANCES A LITTLE LOWER OVER
THE NORTHERN HALF. HOWEVER...SCATTERED STORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER
THIS AREA GIVEN SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY.
FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS
FROM THE STORMS TODAY. LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY
AREAS WERE NUMEROUS STORMS MOVE ACROSS THE SAME LOCATION.

DEEP LAYER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL USHER IN DRIER MID AND UPPER
LEVEL AIR BY TONIGHT...RESULTING IN DECREASING RAIN CHANCES. WILL
MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF STORMS ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES THIS
EVENING...WITH MOST STORMS DISSIPATING OR PUSHING OFFSHORE AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WHILE THE SFC TROUGH ALSO PUSHES SOUTH...THE SIGNIFICANTLY
DRIER SFC AIRMASS IS PROGGED TO STAY TO OUR NORTH...BUT DEWPOINTS
WILL DROP A FEW DEGREES ESPECIALLY OVER FAR INLAND AREAS OVERNIGHT.

USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS TODAY IN THE UPPER 80S
TO AROUND 90 WITH LOWS TONIGHT UPPER 60S FAR INLAND AND LOW TO MID
70S ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES. 34/JFB

UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS BRINGS LOWERING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS AS FAR SOUTH
AS FLORIDA DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE LOWERING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES...THERE STILL
REMAINS ENOUGH ALONG THE COASTAL ZONES...WHICH WHEN COMBINED WITH
WEAK LIFT BY A SURFACE COASTAL TROF AND A NARROW ZONE OF
INSTABILITY...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON STORMS IS FORECAST.
CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS LOWER TO 10% OR LESS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
DAYTIME HIGHS GENERALLY ABOUT 3 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY WITH
NUMBERS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 90S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT RANGE FROM 64
TO 68 INTERIOR TO LOWER HALF OF THE 70S COAST. /10

.LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER
THE SOUTHEAST CANADIAN PROVINCES AND GREAT LAKES THURSDAY...EXPANDS
INTO THE NORTHEAST AND BUILDS SOUTHWARD TO ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
AND SOUTHEAST FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. CONSIDERING THE BUILDING
RIDGE AND WITH UPPER TROF POSITIONED FROM THE EAST COAST...SOUTHWARD TO
FLORIDA FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...CHANCES OF STORMS WILL BE
LOW. ALTHOUGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE LOWER...STILL CANNOT RULE
OUT A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS BUT APPEARS NOT
ENOUGH OF A CHANCE TO MENTION IN THE ZONES AT THIS TIME.

A SURFACE FRONT MOVES EASTWARD OUT OF THE PLAINS ON SATURDAY...ENTERING
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY AND CLOSER TO THE FORECAST AREA
BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS FRONT...BRINGS A SMALL CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE MEDIUM RANGE. DAYTIME HIGHS STILL FORECAST
TO BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY WITH UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 60S INTERIOR TO LOWER HALF OF THE 70S
COAST. /10

&&

.AVIATION [16.12Z KMOB/KBFM/KPNS TAF ISSUANCE]...PREDOMINATE VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER...NUMEROUS
STORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...WITH STORMS LIKELY AFFECTING
MOB/BFM/PNS AT TIMES LATE MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. BRIEF PERIODS
OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN THE STRONGER STORMS. STORM CHANCES
DECREASE TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE AFTER 06Z WED...WHICH WILL
LOCALLY RESTRICT VSBYS TO MVFR-IFR LEVELS. 34/JFB

&&

.MARINE...A SURFACE TROUGH/WEAK COLD FRONT WILL LINGER NEAR THE
MARINE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE TROUGH WILL PUSH
OFFSHORE DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS...RESULTING IN A NW/N FLOW...AND
MOVE BACK NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...VEERING WINDS TO THE W/SW.
A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN
SEABOARD AND DOWN INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. A STRONGER EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE...WITH EXERCISE
CAUTION CONDITIONS (15-20 KT) DEVELOPING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE OPEN GULF WATERS. NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH STORM CHANCES DECREASING FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

RESIDUAL LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL KEEP SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS IN THE
2-3 FT RANGE TODAY. SEAS DECREASE TO 1-2 FT WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY BUT BUILD TO 3-5 FT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...HIGHEST OVER
THE ALABAMA GULF WATERS WHERE THE EASTERLY FETCH WILL BE MAXIMIZED.
34/JFB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      89  71  92  70  90 /  60  30  20  10  10
PENSACOLA   88  73  92  73  89 /  60  40  20  10  10
DESTIN      88  76  89  74  89 /  60  40  20  10  10
EVERGREEN   89  68  93  65  91 /  50  20  10  10  10
WAYNESBORO  90  68  91  64  91 /  40  20  10  10  10
CAMDEN      89  68  92  65  91 /  40  20  10  10  05
CRESTVIEW   90  68  94  68  92 /  60  30  20  10  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KMOB 160449 AAD
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1149 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.AVIATION (06Z ISSUANCE)...WILL HAVE VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AND WHILE THERE STILL IS A SMALL POTENTIAL
FOR CLOUDS BELOW 1000 FT AND/OR LIGHT FOG DEVELOPING DURING THE LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS...POTENTIAL IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN A
TEMPO GROUP AT THIS TIME.  WILL KEPT A VCTS BEGINNING AT 17-18Z
WITH A TEMPO GROUP DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON HOURS FOR MVFR
CONDITIONS IN THUNDERSTORMS AND BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER DOWNPOURS. /29

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 11119 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

UPDATE...HAVE LOWERED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE NIGHT AS CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE. MADE
OTHER MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. /29

&&

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)...THE MAIN LARGE-SCALE CHANGE
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS THAT WESTERLY FLOW IN THE MID- AND UPPER
TROPOSPHERE BECOMES NWLY BY TUESDAY AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY REGION. THE ELONGATED RIDGE OF TODAY WILL BE
REPLACED BY A DEEP NWLY FLOW. AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT...A
DEEP LAYER OF CLOUDS ADVECT INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT FROM THE NORTH
AND COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT INGREDIENTS FOR ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL...TUESDAY SHOULD BE WETTER THAN TODAY. THUS RAIN CHANCES IN
THE LIKELY CATEGORY FOR SOUTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE AREA TOMORROW ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THERE IS NOTABLE LARGE SCALE LOW LEVEL
CONFLUENCE (AND COMPUTED CONVERGENCE) IN THE WIND FIELD ALONG THE
FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT.  BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS BECOME
NORTHERLY DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY AND WEAK SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ESTABLISHED.  LEFTOVER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING WILL PLAY A ROLE IN MOISTENING THE LOCAL
ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT THIS EVENING. HAVE LEFT
POPS A LITTLE ELEVATED IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD DUE TO THIS REASON.
MADE NO SIGNIFICANT DEPARTURES ON MAX OR MIN TEMPS. MANY AREAS STAND
TO RECEIVE BETWEEN A QUARTER AND A HALF INCH THROUGH TOMORROW
AFTERNOON THIS TIME. SOME AREAS COULD HAVE ISOLATED TOTALS UP TO AN
INCH (HIGHER LOCALLY WHERE SEVERAL THUNDERSTORMS MOVE OVER THE SAME
AREA). 23/JMM

(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...WE EXPECT THAT THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED SOUTHEAST ACCORDING TO GFS
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE BY TUESDAY EVENING. INDICATIONS ARE THAT IT WILL
PUSH SOUTH OVER THE NORTHERN GULF TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST 3
HOURS OF TUESDAY EVENING AND MOSTLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10. BY
MIDNIGHT TUESDAY WE EXPECT THE CONVECTION TO HAVE MOVED OFFSHORE.

THE MAJOR ACTORS NOTED INCLUDE A 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL
REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN START TO MOVE EAST
WEDNESDAY WHILE AT THE SAME TIME A LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN
OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND ALSO MOVE EAST. WE EXPECT THESE
FEATURES WILL HELP MAINTAIN THE STRUCTURE OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM AND
FINALLY PUSH IT OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT.

NUMERICAL OUTPUTS REGARDING THE THERMODYNAMIC PICTURE INDICATE THE
BULK OF CONVECTIVE INGREDIENTS WILL BE SOUTH OF I-10 AS OF
18.00Z...WHEN LI AS SHOWN BY THE SOUNDER IS INITIALIZED SOMEWHAT TOO
LOW COMPARED TO THE 15.12Z GFS AND COMPARED TO THE LIX SOUNDING.
HOWEVER THE PRECIPITABLE WATER IS PRETTY CLOSE AGREEMENT ON ALL
THREE. CAPE IS AVERAGING ABOUT 1600 WITH A MAXIMUM OF 2200. LIFTED
INDEX IS AVERAGING -4 DEGREES WHICH HAS BEEN PRETTY TYPICAL FOR THE
LAST FEW WEEKS DURING DAYLIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL REMAIN JUST
AROUND 2 INCHES. BY 18.06Z THAT SHOULD BE DROPPING RAPIDLY...BUT LOSS
OF SUNLIGHT WILL FURTHER LOWER THE CHANCES OF RAIN NORTH OF I-10. WE
THEREFORE EXPECT LIKELY CHANCES OF MEASURABLE RAIN IN WHICH SHORT
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL
BE PRODUCED BY SOME THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY TUESDAY EVENING. AVERAGE
RAINFALL TOTALS WOULD RANGE FROM 0.25 TO 0.75 INCHES PER 12 HOUR
PERIOD IN OUR AREA TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
RAINFALL 2 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS. AS OF 18.18Z THERE
WILL LIKELY WILL BE NO IMPETUS FOR CONVECTION AT ALL...AND CLEARING
SKIES ARE EXPECTED AS WELL.

FORECAST HIGHS WEDNESDAY REBOUNDED A BIT...ABOUT 2 DEGREES INLAND
AND MOST LIKELY DUE TO DECREASING SKY COVER. THEY WILL BE ABOUT 4
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...AND 2 OR SO BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY NIGHT. FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAV GUIDANCE HAS LOWS 2 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE
LAST MODEL OUTPUT WHICH WOULD PUT IT ABOUT 5 TO 7 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WE RAISED THAT A SMIDGEN TO MATCH NEIGHBORS
BUT PARTS OF THE NORTHERN INLAND REGIONS STILL MAKE IT DOWN TO 62.

77/BD

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST. GFS AND EURO ARE BOTH PHASED PRETTY CLOSELY. THE
WAVE NUMBER 5 MODEL CALCULATIONS INDICATE THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL HANG ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...DAMPENING THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AND ALLOWING A RIDGE TO
BUILD IN THE WEST ATLANTIC REGION AROUND 60 DEGREES WEST. HOWEVER BY
FRIDAY WE SHOULD SEE ISOLATED POPCORN TYPE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CLOSE TO SHORE. MEANWHILE A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WOULD
MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION WITH AN OFFSHORE PUSH INDICATED THUS FAR.
ONCE THAT HAPPENS...A SURFACE RIDGE WOULD DOMINATE OUR WEATHER
PICTURE AS WELL AS THE REST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WOULD BRING CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND SKIES
AND TO ISOLATED CHANCES OF MEASURABLE RAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 2 TO 3 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AND AROUND NORMAL SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
LOWS INLAND FRIDAY WILL BE ABOUT 3 OR 4 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WHEN
COMPARED TO POINTS A LITTLE NORTH OF OUR AREA....EASING CLOSER TO
NORMAL BY NEXT WEEK. 77/BD

MARINE...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG OR
JUST INLAND FROM THE GULF COAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH A WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH OUT OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THE FRONT TO THE NORTH GETS A PUSH...
AND MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE MARINE AREA WITH STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. PRIOR TO THE FROPA...PRIMARILY A LIGHT
TO MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE...WITH A DIURNAL NWLY
COMPONENT OVERNIGHT AND MORE OF A SWLY COMPONENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. BY THE WEEKEND...THE BUILDING RIDGE TO THE NORTH WILL
RESULT IN A STRONGER AND MORE STEADY EASTERLY WIND FLOW OVER THE
MARINE AREA. SEAS INITIALLY IN THE 2-3 FOOT RANGE OVER THE MARINE
AREA TONIGHT...THEN AROUND 2 FEET OR LESS FOR MOST OF THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK...BEFORE BEGINNING TO BUILD GOING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
THE INCREASING EASTERLY FLOW. ISOLATED TO OCNLY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...PRIMARILY OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      73  89  71  91  70 /  30  60  30  20  05
PENSACOLA   75  88  74  91  71 /  40  60  40  10  05
DESTIN      76  88  75  89  74 /  40  60  40  20  05
EVERGREEN   70  90  67  91  63 /  40  60  20  10  05
WAYNESBORO  70  90  66  90  64 /  20  50  20  10  05
CAMDEN      70  90  66  89  62 /  30  40  20  10  05
CRESTVIEW   71  90  68  92  64 /  40  60  30  10  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$












000
FXUS64 KMOB 160449 AAD
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1149 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.AVIATION (06Z ISSUANCE)...WILL HAVE VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AND WHILE THERE STILL IS A SMALL POTENTIAL
FOR CLOUDS BELOW 1000 FT AND/OR LIGHT FOG DEVELOPING DURING THE LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS...POTENTIAL IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN A
TEMPO GROUP AT THIS TIME.  WILL KEPT A VCTS BEGINNING AT 17-18Z
WITH A TEMPO GROUP DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON HOURS FOR MVFR
CONDITIONS IN THUNDERSTORMS AND BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER DOWNPOURS. /29

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 11119 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

UPDATE...HAVE LOWERED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE NIGHT AS CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE. MADE
OTHER MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. /29

&&

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)...THE MAIN LARGE-SCALE CHANGE
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS THAT WESTERLY FLOW IN THE MID- AND UPPER
TROPOSPHERE BECOMES NWLY BY TUESDAY AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY REGION. THE ELONGATED RIDGE OF TODAY WILL BE
REPLACED BY A DEEP NWLY FLOW. AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT...A
DEEP LAYER OF CLOUDS ADVECT INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT FROM THE NORTH
AND COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT INGREDIENTS FOR ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL...TUESDAY SHOULD BE WETTER THAN TODAY. THUS RAIN CHANCES IN
THE LIKELY CATEGORY FOR SOUTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE AREA TOMORROW ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THERE IS NOTABLE LARGE SCALE LOW LEVEL
CONFLUENCE (AND COMPUTED CONVERGENCE) IN THE WIND FIELD ALONG THE
FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT.  BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS BECOME
NORTHERLY DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY AND WEAK SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ESTABLISHED.  LEFTOVER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING WILL PLAY A ROLE IN MOISTENING THE LOCAL
ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT THIS EVENING. HAVE LEFT
POPS A LITTLE ELEVATED IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD DUE TO THIS REASON.
MADE NO SIGNIFICANT DEPARTURES ON MAX OR MIN TEMPS. MANY AREAS STAND
TO RECEIVE BETWEEN A QUARTER AND A HALF INCH THROUGH TOMORROW
AFTERNOON THIS TIME. SOME AREAS COULD HAVE ISOLATED TOTALS UP TO AN
INCH (HIGHER LOCALLY WHERE SEVERAL THUNDERSTORMS MOVE OVER THE SAME
AREA). 23/JMM

(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...WE EXPECT THAT THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED SOUTHEAST ACCORDING TO GFS
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE BY TUESDAY EVENING. INDICATIONS ARE THAT IT WILL
PUSH SOUTH OVER THE NORTHERN GULF TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST 3
HOURS OF TUESDAY EVENING AND MOSTLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10. BY
MIDNIGHT TUESDAY WE EXPECT THE CONVECTION TO HAVE MOVED OFFSHORE.

THE MAJOR ACTORS NOTED INCLUDE A 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL
REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN START TO MOVE EAST
WEDNESDAY WHILE AT THE SAME TIME A LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN
OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND ALSO MOVE EAST. WE EXPECT THESE
FEATURES WILL HELP MAINTAIN THE STRUCTURE OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM AND
FINALLY PUSH IT OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT.

NUMERICAL OUTPUTS REGARDING THE THERMODYNAMIC PICTURE INDICATE THE
BULK OF CONVECTIVE INGREDIENTS WILL BE SOUTH OF I-10 AS OF
18.00Z...WHEN LI AS SHOWN BY THE SOUNDER IS INITIALIZED SOMEWHAT TOO
LOW COMPARED TO THE 15.12Z GFS AND COMPARED TO THE LIX SOUNDING.
HOWEVER THE PRECIPITABLE WATER IS PRETTY CLOSE AGREEMENT ON ALL
THREE. CAPE IS AVERAGING ABOUT 1600 WITH A MAXIMUM OF 2200. LIFTED
INDEX IS AVERAGING -4 DEGREES WHICH HAS BEEN PRETTY TYPICAL FOR THE
LAST FEW WEEKS DURING DAYLIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL REMAIN JUST
AROUND 2 INCHES. BY 18.06Z THAT SHOULD BE DROPPING RAPIDLY...BUT LOSS
OF SUNLIGHT WILL FURTHER LOWER THE CHANCES OF RAIN NORTH OF I-10. WE
THEREFORE EXPECT LIKELY CHANCES OF MEASURABLE RAIN IN WHICH SHORT
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL
BE PRODUCED BY SOME THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY TUESDAY EVENING. AVERAGE
RAINFALL TOTALS WOULD RANGE FROM 0.25 TO 0.75 INCHES PER 12 HOUR
PERIOD IN OUR AREA TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
RAINFALL 2 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS. AS OF 18.18Z THERE
WILL LIKELY WILL BE NO IMPETUS FOR CONVECTION AT ALL...AND CLEARING
SKIES ARE EXPECTED AS WELL.

FORECAST HIGHS WEDNESDAY REBOUNDED A BIT...ABOUT 2 DEGREES INLAND
AND MOST LIKELY DUE TO DECREASING SKY COVER. THEY WILL BE ABOUT 4
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...AND 2 OR SO BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY NIGHT. FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAV GUIDANCE HAS LOWS 2 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE
LAST MODEL OUTPUT WHICH WOULD PUT IT ABOUT 5 TO 7 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WE RAISED THAT A SMIDGEN TO MATCH NEIGHBORS
BUT PARTS OF THE NORTHERN INLAND REGIONS STILL MAKE IT DOWN TO 62.

77/BD

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST. GFS AND EURO ARE BOTH PHASED PRETTY CLOSELY. THE
WAVE NUMBER 5 MODEL CALCULATIONS INDICATE THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL HANG ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...DAMPENING THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AND ALLOWING A RIDGE TO
BUILD IN THE WEST ATLANTIC REGION AROUND 60 DEGREES WEST. HOWEVER BY
FRIDAY WE SHOULD SEE ISOLATED POPCORN TYPE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CLOSE TO SHORE. MEANWHILE A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WOULD
MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION WITH AN OFFSHORE PUSH INDICATED THUS FAR.
ONCE THAT HAPPENS...A SURFACE RIDGE WOULD DOMINATE OUR WEATHER
PICTURE AS WELL AS THE REST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WOULD BRING CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND SKIES
AND TO ISOLATED CHANCES OF MEASURABLE RAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 2 TO 3 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AND AROUND NORMAL SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
LOWS INLAND FRIDAY WILL BE ABOUT 3 OR 4 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WHEN
COMPARED TO POINTS A LITTLE NORTH OF OUR AREA....EASING CLOSER TO
NORMAL BY NEXT WEEK. 77/BD

MARINE...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG OR
JUST INLAND FROM THE GULF COAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH A WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH OUT OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THE FRONT TO THE NORTH GETS A PUSH...
AND MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE MARINE AREA WITH STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. PRIOR TO THE FROPA...PRIMARILY A LIGHT
TO MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE...WITH A DIURNAL NWLY
COMPONENT OVERNIGHT AND MORE OF A SWLY COMPONENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. BY THE WEEKEND...THE BUILDING RIDGE TO THE NORTH WILL
RESULT IN A STRONGER AND MORE STEADY EASTERLY WIND FLOW OVER THE
MARINE AREA. SEAS INITIALLY IN THE 2-3 FOOT RANGE OVER THE MARINE
AREA TONIGHT...THEN AROUND 2 FEET OR LESS FOR MOST OF THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK...BEFORE BEGINNING TO BUILD GOING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
THE INCREASING EASTERLY FLOW. ISOLATED TO OCNLY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...PRIMARILY OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      73  89  71  91  70 /  30  60  30  20  05
PENSACOLA   75  88  74  91  71 /  40  60  40  10  05
DESTIN      76  88  75  89  74 /  40  60  40  20  05
EVERGREEN   70  90  67  91  63 /  40  60  20  10  05
WAYNESBORO  70  90  66  90  64 /  20  50  20  10  05
CAMDEN      70  90  66  89  62 /  30  40  20  10  05
CRESTVIEW   71  90  68  92  64 /  40  60  30  10  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$













000
FXUS64 KMOB 160419 AAC
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1119 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.UPDATE...HAVE LOWERED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE NIGHT AS CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE. MADE
OTHER MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. /29

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

AVIATION (00Z ISSUANCE)...OTHER THAN A TEMPO GROUP AT PNS FROM
00-02Z FOR MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS...WILL HAVE VCSH WITH VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.  THERE IS A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR
CLOUDS BELOW 1000 FT AND/OR LIGHT FOG DEVELOPING DURING THE LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS...BUT AT THIS POINT THE POTENTIAL IS LESS
THAN SUFFICIENT TO INCLUDE IN A TEMPO GROUP AND WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.  WILL HAVE VCTS BEGINNING AT 17-18Z WITH A TEMPO GROUP
DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON HOURS FOR MVFR CONDITIONS IN
THUNDERSTORMS.  BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
STRONGER DOWNPOURS. /29

*** PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ***

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)...THE MAIN LARGE-SCALE CHANGE
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS THAT WESTERLY FLOW IN THE MID- AND UPPER
TROPOSPHERE BECOMES NWLY BY TUESDAY AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY REGION. THE ELONGATED RIDGE OF TODAY WILL BE
REPLACED BY A DEEP NWLY FLOW. AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT...A
DEEP LAYER OF CLOUDS ADVECT INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT FROM THE NORTH
AND COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT INGREDIENTS FOR ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL...TUESDAY SHOULD BE WETTER THAN TODAY. THUS RAIN CHANCES IN
THE LIKELY CATEGORY FOR SOUTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE AREA TOMORROW ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THERE IS NOTABLE LARGE SCALE LOW LEVEL
CONFLUENCE (AND COMPUTED CONVERGENCE) IN THE WIND FIELD ALONG THE
FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT.  BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS BECOME
NORTHERLY DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY AND WEAK SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ESTABLISHED.  LEFTOVER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING WILL PLAY A ROLE IN MOISTENING THE LOCAL
ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT THIS EVENING. HAVE LEFT
POPS A LITTLE ELEVATED IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD DUE TO THIS REASON.
MADE NO SIGNIFICANT DEPARTURES ON MAX OR MIN TEMPS. MANY AREAS STAND
TO RECEIVE BETWEEN A QUARTER AND A HALF INCH THROUGH TOMORROW
AFTERNOON THIS TIME. SOME AREAS COULD HAVE ISOLATED TOTALS UP TO AN
INCH (HIGHER LOCALLY WHERE SEVERAL THUNDERSTORMS MOVE OVER THE SAME
AREA). 23/JMM

(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...WE EXPECT THAT THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED SOUTHEAST ACCORDING TO GFS
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE BY TUESDAY EVENING. INDICATIONS ARE THAT IT WILL
PUSH SOUTH OVER THE NORTHERN GULF TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST 3
HOURS OF TUESDAY EVENING AND MOSTLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10. BY
MIDNIGHT TUESDAY WE EXPECT THE CONVECTION TO HAVE MOVED OFFSHORE.

THE MAJOR ACTORS NOTED INCLUDE A 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL
REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN START TO MOVE EAST
WEDNESDAY WHILE AT THE SAME TIME A LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN
OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND ALSO MOVE EAST. WE EXPECT THESE
FEATURES WILL HELP MAINTAIN THE STRUCTURE OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM AND
FINALLY PUSH IT OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT.

NUMERICAL OUTPUTS REGARDING THE THERMODYNAMIC PICTURE INDICATE THE
BULK OF CONVECTIVE INGREDIENTS WILL BE SOUTH OF I-10 AS OF
18.00Z...WHEN LI AS SHOWN BY THE SOUNDER IS INITIALIZED SOMEWHAT TOO
LOW COMPARED TO THE 15.12Z GFS AND COMPARED TO THE LIX SOUNDING.
HOWEVER THE PRECIPITABLE WATER IS PRETTY CLOSE AGREEMENT ON ALL
THREE. CAPE IS AVERAGING ABOUT 1600 WITH A MAXIMUM OF 2200. LIFTED
INDEX IS AVERAGING -4 DEGREES WHICH HAS BEEN PRETTY TYPICAL FOR THE
LAST FEW WEEKS DURING DAYLIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL REMAIN JUST
AROUND 2 INCHES. BY 18.06Z THAT SHOULD BE DROPPING RAPIDLY...BUT LOSS
OF SUNLIGHT WILL FURTHER LOWER THE CHANCES OF RAIN NORTH OF I-10. WE
THEREFORE EXPECT LIKELY CHANCES OF MEASURABLE RAIN IN WHICH SHORT
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL
BE PRODUCED BY SOME THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY TUESDAY EVENING. AVERAGE
RAINFALL TOTALS WOULD RANGE FROM 0.25 TO 0.75 INCHES PER 12 HOUR
PERIOD IN OUR AREA TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
RAINFALL 2 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS. AS OF 18.18Z THERE
WILL LIKELY WILL BE NO IMPETUS FOR CONVECTION AT ALL...AND CLEARING
SKIES ARE EXPECTED AS WELL.

FORECAST HIGHS WEDNESDAY REBOUNDED A BIT...ABOUT 2 DEGREES INLAND
AND MOST LIKELY DUE TO DECREASING SKY COVER. THEY WILL BE ABOUT 4
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...AND 2 OR SO BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY NIGHT. FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAV GUIDANCE HAS LOWS 2 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE
LAST MODEL OUTPUT WHICH WOULD PUT IT ABOUT 5 TO 7 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WE RAISED THAT A SMIDGEN TO MATCH NEIGHBORS
BUT PARTS OF THE NORTHERN INLAND REGIONS STILL MAKE IT DOWN TO 62.

77/BD

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST. GFS AND EURO ARE BOTH PHASED PRETTY CLOSELY. THE
WAVE NUMBER 5 MODEL CALCULATIONS INDICATE THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL HANG ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...DAMPENING THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AND ALLOWING A RIDGE TO
BUILD IN THE WEST ATLANTIC REGION AROUND 60 DEGREES WEST. HOWEVER BY
FRIDAY WE SHOULD SEE ISOLATED POPCORN TYPE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CLOSE TO SHORE. MEANWHILE A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WOULD
MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION WITH AN OFFSHORE PUSH INDICATED THUS FAR.
ONCE THAT HAPPENS...A SURFACE RIDGE WOULD DOMINATE OUR WEATHER
PICTURE AS WELL AS THE REST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WOULD BRING CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND SKIES
AND TO ISOLATED CHANCES OF MEASURABLE RAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 2 TO 3 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AND AROUND NORMAL SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
LOWS INLAND FRIDAY WILL BE ABOUT 3 OR 4 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WHEN
COMPARED TO POINTS A LITTLE NORTH OF OUR AREA....EASING CLOSER TO
NORMAL BY NEXT WEEK. 77/BD

MARINE...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG OR
JUST INLAND FROM THE GULF COAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH A WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH OUT OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THE FRONT TO THE NORTH GETS A PUSH...
AND MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE MARINE AREA WITH STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. PRIOR TO THE FROPA...PRIMARILY A LIGHT
TO MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE...WITH A DIURNAL NWLY
COMPONENT OVERNIGHT AND MORE OF A SWLY COMPONENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. BY THE WEEKEND...THE BUILDING RIDGE TO THE NORTH WILL
RESULT IN A STRONGER AND MORE STEADY EASTERLY WIND FLOW OVER THE
MARINE AREA. SEAS INITIALLY IN THE 2-3 FOOT RANGE OVER THE MARINE
AREA TONIGHT...THEN AROUND 2 FEET OR LESS FOR MOST OF THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK...BEFORE BEGINNING TO BUILD GOING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
THE INCREASING EASTERLY FLOW. ISOLATED TO OCNLY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...PRIMARILY OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      73  89  71  91  70 /  30  60  30  20  05
PENSACOLA   75  88  74  91  71 /  40  60  40  10  05
DESTIN      76  88  75  89  74 /  40  60  40  20  05
EVERGREEN   70  90  67  91  63 /  40  60  20  10  05
WAYNESBORO  70  90  66  90  64 /  20  50  20  10  05
CAMDEN      70  90  66  89  62 /  30  40  20  10  05
CRESTVIEW   71  90  68  92  64 /  40  60  30  10  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KMOB 160419 AAC
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1119 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.UPDATE...HAVE LOWERED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE NIGHT AS CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE. MADE
OTHER MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. /29

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

AVIATION (00Z ISSUANCE)...OTHER THAN A TEMPO GROUP AT PNS FROM
00-02Z FOR MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS...WILL HAVE VCSH WITH VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.  THERE IS A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR
CLOUDS BELOW 1000 FT AND/OR LIGHT FOG DEVELOPING DURING THE LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS...BUT AT THIS POINT THE POTENTIAL IS LESS
THAN SUFFICIENT TO INCLUDE IN A TEMPO GROUP AND WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.  WILL HAVE VCTS BEGINNING AT 17-18Z WITH A TEMPO GROUP
DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON HOURS FOR MVFR CONDITIONS IN
THUNDERSTORMS.  BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
STRONGER DOWNPOURS. /29

*** PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ***

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)...THE MAIN LARGE-SCALE CHANGE
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS THAT WESTERLY FLOW IN THE MID- AND UPPER
TROPOSPHERE BECOMES NWLY BY TUESDAY AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY REGION. THE ELONGATED RIDGE OF TODAY WILL BE
REPLACED BY A DEEP NWLY FLOW. AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT...A
DEEP LAYER OF CLOUDS ADVECT INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT FROM THE NORTH
AND COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT INGREDIENTS FOR ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL...TUESDAY SHOULD BE WETTER THAN TODAY. THUS RAIN CHANCES IN
THE LIKELY CATEGORY FOR SOUTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE AREA TOMORROW ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THERE IS NOTABLE LARGE SCALE LOW LEVEL
CONFLUENCE (AND COMPUTED CONVERGENCE) IN THE WIND FIELD ALONG THE
FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT.  BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS BECOME
NORTHERLY DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY AND WEAK SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ESTABLISHED.  LEFTOVER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING WILL PLAY A ROLE IN MOISTENING THE LOCAL
ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT THIS EVENING. HAVE LEFT
POPS A LITTLE ELEVATED IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD DUE TO THIS REASON.
MADE NO SIGNIFICANT DEPARTURES ON MAX OR MIN TEMPS. MANY AREAS STAND
TO RECEIVE BETWEEN A QUARTER AND A HALF INCH THROUGH TOMORROW
AFTERNOON THIS TIME. SOME AREAS COULD HAVE ISOLATED TOTALS UP TO AN
INCH (HIGHER LOCALLY WHERE SEVERAL THUNDERSTORMS MOVE OVER THE SAME
AREA). 23/JMM

(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...WE EXPECT THAT THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED SOUTHEAST ACCORDING TO GFS
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE BY TUESDAY EVENING. INDICATIONS ARE THAT IT WILL
PUSH SOUTH OVER THE NORTHERN GULF TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST 3
HOURS OF TUESDAY EVENING AND MOSTLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10. BY
MIDNIGHT TUESDAY WE EXPECT THE CONVECTION TO HAVE MOVED OFFSHORE.

THE MAJOR ACTORS NOTED INCLUDE A 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL
REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN START TO MOVE EAST
WEDNESDAY WHILE AT THE SAME TIME A LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN
OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND ALSO MOVE EAST. WE EXPECT THESE
FEATURES WILL HELP MAINTAIN THE STRUCTURE OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM AND
FINALLY PUSH IT OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT.

NUMERICAL OUTPUTS REGARDING THE THERMODYNAMIC PICTURE INDICATE THE
BULK OF CONVECTIVE INGREDIENTS WILL BE SOUTH OF I-10 AS OF
18.00Z...WHEN LI AS SHOWN BY THE SOUNDER IS INITIALIZED SOMEWHAT TOO
LOW COMPARED TO THE 15.12Z GFS AND COMPARED TO THE LIX SOUNDING.
HOWEVER THE PRECIPITABLE WATER IS PRETTY CLOSE AGREEMENT ON ALL
THREE. CAPE IS AVERAGING ABOUT 1600 WITH A MAXIMUM OF 2200. LIFTED
INDEX IS AVERAGING -4 DEGREES WHICH HAS BEEN PRETTY TYPICAL FOR THE
LAST FEW WEEKS DURING DAYLIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL REMAIN JUST
AROUND 2 INCHES. BY 18.06Z THAT SHOULD BE DROPPING RAPIDLY...BUT LOSS
OF SUNLIGHT WILL FURTHER LOWER THE CHANCES OF RAIN NORTH OF I-10. WE
THEREFORE EXPECT LIKELY CHANCES OF MEASURABLE RAIN IN WHICH SHORT
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL
BE PRODUCED BY SOME THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY TUESDAY EVENING. AVERAGE
RAINFALL TOTALS WOULD RANGE FROM 0.25 TO 0.75 INCHES PER 12 HOUR
PERIOD IN OUR AREA TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
RAINFALL 2 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS. AS OF 18.18Z THERE
WILL LIKELY WILL BE NO IMPETUS FOR CONVECTION AT ALL...AND CLEARING
SKIES ARE EXPECTED AS WELL.

FORECAST HIGHS WEDNESDAY REBOUNDED A BIT...ABOUT 2 DEGREES INLAND
AND MOST LIKELY DUE TO DECREASING SKY COVER. THEY WILL BE ABOUT 4
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...AND 2 OR SO BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY NIGHT. FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAV GUIDANCE HAS LOWS 2 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE
LAST MODEL OUTPUT WHICH WOULD PUT IT ABOUT 5 TO 7 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WE RAISED THAT A SMIDGEN TO MATCH NEIGHBORS
BUT PARTS OF THE NORTHERN INLAND REGIONS STILL MAKE IT DOWN TO 62.

77/BD

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST. GFS AND EURO ARE BOTH PHASED PRETTY CLOSELY. THE
WAVE NUMBER 5 MODEL CALCULATIONS INDICATE THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL HANG ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...DAMPENING THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AND ALLOWING A RIDGE TO
BUILD IN THE WEST ATLANTIC REGION AROUND 60 DEGREES WEST. HOWEVER BY
FRIDAY WE SHOULD SEE ISOLATED POPCORN TYPE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CLOSE TO SHORE. MEANWHILE A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WOULD
MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION WITH AN OFFSHORE PUSH INDICATED THUS FAR.
ONCE THAT HAPPENS...A SURFACE RIDGE WOULD DOMINATE OUR WEATHER
PICTURE AS WELL AS THE REST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WOULD BRING CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND SKIES
AND TO ISOLATED CHANCES OF MEASURABLE RAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 2 TO 3 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AND AROUND NORMAL SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
LOWS INLAND FRIDAY WILL BE ABOUT 3 OR 4 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WHEN
COMPARED TO POINTS A LITTLE NORTH OF OUR AREA....EASING CLOSER TO
NORMAL BY NEXT WEEK. 77/BD

MARINE...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG OR
JUST INLAND FROM THE GULF COAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH A WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH OUT OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THE FRONT TO THE NORTH GETS A PUSH...
AND MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE MARINE AREA WITH STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. PRIOR TO THE FROPA...PRIMARILY A LIGHT
TO MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE...WITH A DIURNAL NWLY
COMPONENT OVERNIGHT AND MORE OF A SWLY COMPONENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. BY THE WEEKEND...THE BUILDING RIDGE TO THE NORTH WILL
RESULT IN A STRONGER AND MORE STEADY EASTERLY WIND FLOW OVER THE
MARINE AREA. SEAS INITIALLY IN THE 2-3 FOOT RANGE OVER THE MARINE
AREA TONIGHT...THEN AROUND 2 FEET OR LESS FOR MOST OF THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK...BEFORE BEGINNING TO BUILD GOING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
THE INCREASING EASTERLY FLOW. ISOLATED TO OCNLY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...PRIMARILY OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      73  89  71  91  70 /  30  60  30  20  05
PENSACOLA   75  88  74  91  71 /  40  60  40  10  05
DESTIN      76  88  75  89  74 /  40  60  40  20  05
EVERGREEN   70  90  67  91  63 /  40  60  20  10  05
WAYNESBORO  70  90  66  90  64 /  20  50  20  10  05
CAMDEN      70  90  66  89  62 /  30  40  20  10  05
CRESTVIEW   71  90  68  92  64 /  40  60  30  10  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMOB 160419 AAC
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1119 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.UPDATE...HAVE LOWERED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE NIGHT AS CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE. MADE
OTHER MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. /29

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

AVIATION (00Z ISSUANCE)...OTHER THAN A TEMPO GROUP AT PNS FROM
00-02Z FOR MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS...WILL HAVE VCSH WITH VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.  THERE IS A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR
CLOUDS BELOW 1000 FT AND/OR LIGHT FOG DEVELOPING DURING THE LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS...BUT AT THIS POINT THE POTENTIAL IS LESS
THAN SUFFICIENT TO INCLUDE IN A TEMPO GROUP AND WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.  WILL HAVE VCTS BEGINNING AT 17-18Z WITH A TEMPO GROUP
DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON HOURS FOR MVFR CONDITIONS IN
THUNDERSTORMS.  BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
STRONGER DOWNPOURS. /29

*** PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ***

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)...THE MAIN LARGE-SCALE CHANGE
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS THAT WESTERLY FLOW IN THE MID- AND UPPER
TROPOSPHERE BECOMES NWLY BY TUESDAY AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY REGION. THE ELONGATED RIDGE OF TODAY WILL BE
REPLACED BY A DEEP NWLY FLOW. AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT...A
DEEP LAYER OF CLOUDS ADVECT INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT FROM THE NORTH
AND COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT INGREDIENTS FOR ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL...TUESDAY SHOULD BE WETTER THAN TODAY. THUS RAIN CHANCES IN
THE LIKELY CATEGORY FOR SOUTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE AREA TOMORROW ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THERE IS NOTABLE LARGE SCALE LOW LEVEL
CONFLUENCE (AND COMPUTED CONVERGENCE) IN THE WIND FIELD ALONG THE
FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT.  BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS BECOME
NORTHERLY DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY AND WEAK SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ESTABLISHED.  LEFTOVER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING WILL PLAY A ROLE IN MOISTENING THE LOCAL
ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT THIS EVENING. HAVE LEFT
POPS A LITTLE ELEVATED IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD DUE TO THIS REASON.
MADE NO SIGNIFICANT DEPARTURES ON MAX OR MIN TEMPS. MANY AREAS STAND
TO RECEIVE BETWEEN A QUARTER AND A HALF INCH THROUGH TOMORROW
AFTERNOON THIS TIME. SOME AREAS COULD HAVE ISOLATED TOTALS UP TO AN
INCH (HIGHER LOCALLY WHERE SEVERAL THUNDERSTORMS MOVE OVER THE SAME
AREA). 23/JMM

(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...WE EXPECT THAT THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED SOUTHEAST ACCORDING TO GFS
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE BY TUESDAY EVENING. INDICATIONS ARE THAT IT WILL
PUSH SOUTH OVER THE NORTHERN GULF TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST 3
HOURS OF TUESDAY EVENING AND MOSTLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10. BY
MIDNIGHT TUESDAY WE EXPECT THE CONVECTION TO HAVE MOVED OFFSHORE.

THE MAJOR ACTORS NOTED INCLUDE A 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL
REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN START TO MOVE EAST
WEDNESDAY WHILE AT THE SAME TIME A LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN
OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND ALSO MOVE EAST. WE EXPECT THESE
FEATURES WILL HELP MAINTAIN THE STRUCTURE OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM AND
FINALLY PUSH IT OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT.

NUMERICAL OUTPUTS REGARDING THE THERMODYNAMIC PICTURE INDICATE THE
BULK OF CONVECTIVE INGREDIENTS WILL BE SOUTH OF I-10 AS OF
18.00Z...WHEN LI AS SHOWN BY THE SOUNDER IS INITIALIZED SOMEWHAT TOO
LOW COMPARED TO THE 15.12Z GFS AND COMPARED TO THE LIX SOUNDING.
HOWEVER THE PRECIPITABLE WATER IS PRETTY CLOSE AGREEMENT ON ALL
THREE. CAPE IS AVERAGING ABOUT 1600 WITH A MAXIMUM OF 2200. LIFTED
INDEX IS AVERAGING -4 DEGREES WHICH HAS BEEN PRETTY TYPICAL FOR THE
LAST FEW WEEKS DURING DAYLIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL REMAIN JUST
AROUND 2 INCHES. BY 18.06Z THAT SHOULD BE DROPPING RAPIDLY...BUT LOSS
OF SUNLIGHT WILL FURTHER LOWER THE CHANCES OF RAIN NORTH OF I-10. WE
THEREFORE EXPECT LIKELY CHANCES OF MEASURABLE RAIN IN WHICH SHORT
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL
BE PRODUCED BY SOME THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY TUESDAY EVENING. AVERAGE
RAINFALL TOTALS WOULD RANGE FROM 0.25 TO 0.75 INCHES PER 12 HOUR
PERIOD IN OUR AREA TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
RAINFALL 2 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS. AS OF 18.18Z THERE
WILL LIKELY WILL BE NO IMPETUS FOR CONVECTION AT ALL...AND CLEARING
SKIES ARE EXPECTED AS WELL.

FORECAST HIGHS WEDNESDAY REBOUNDED A BIT...ABOUT 2 DEGREES INLAND
AND MOST LIKELY DUE TO DECREASING SKY COVER. THEY WILL BE ABOUT 4
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...AND 2 OR SO BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY NIGHT. FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAV GUIDANCE HAS LOWS 2 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE
LAST MODEL OUTPUT WHICH WOULD PUT IT ABOUT 5 TO 7 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WE RAISED THAT A SMIDGEN TO MATCH NEIGHBORS
BUT PARTS OF THE NORTHERN INLAND REGIONS STILL MAKE IT DOWN TO 62.

77/BD

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST. GFS AND EURO ARE BOTH PHASED PRETTY CLOSELY. THE
WAVE NUMBER 5 MODEL CALCULATIONS INDICATE THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL HANG ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...DAMPENING THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AND ALLOWING A RIDGE TO
BUILD IN THE WEST ATLANTIC REGION AROUND 60 DEGREES WEST. HOWEVER BY
FRIDAY WE SHOULD SEE ISOLATED POPCORN TYPE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CLOSE TO SHORE. MEANWHILE A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WOULD
MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION WITH AN OFFSHORE PUSH INDICATED THUS FAR.
ONCE THAT HAPPENS...A SURFACE RIDGE WOULD DOMINATE OUR WEATHER
PICTURE AS WELL AS THE REST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WOULD BRING CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND SKIES
AND TO ISOLATED CHANCES OF MEASURABLE RAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 2 TO 3 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AND AROUND NORMAL SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
LOWS INLAND FRIDAY WILL BE ABOUT 3 OR 4 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WHEN
COMPARED TO POINTS A LITTLE NORTH OF OUR AREA....EASING CLOSER TO
NORMAL BY NEXT WEEK. 77/BD

MARINE...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG OR
JUST INLAND FROM THE GULF COAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH A WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH OUT OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THE FRONT TO THE NORTH GETS A PUSH...
AND MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE MARINE AREA WITH STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. PRIOR TO THE FROPA...PRIMARILY A LIGHT
TO MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE...WITH A DIURNAL NWLY
COMPONENT OVERNIGHT AND MORE OF A SWLY COMPONENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. BY THE WEEKEND...THE BUILDING RIDGE TO THE NORTH WILL
RESULT IN A STRONGER AND MORE STEADY EASTERLY WIND FLOW OVER THE
MARINE AREA. SEAS INITIALLY IN THE 2-3 FOOT RANGE OVER THE MARINE
AREA TONIGHT...THEN AROUND 2 FEET OR LESS FOR MOST OF THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK...BEFORE BEGINNING TO BUILD GOING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
THE INCREASING EASTERLY FLOW. ISOLATED TO OCNLY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...PRIMARILY OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      73  89  71  91  70 /  30  60  30  20  05
PENSACOLA   75  88  74  91  71 /  40  60  40  10  05
DESTIN      76  88  75  89  74 /  40  60  40  20  05
EVERGREEN   70  90  67  91  63 /  40  60  20  10  05
WAYNESBORO  70  90  66  90  64 /  20  50  20  10  05
CAMDEN      70  90  66  89  62 /  30  40  20  10  05
CRESTVIEW   71  90  68  92  64 /  40  60  30  10  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KMOB 160419 AAC
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1119 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.UPDATE...HAVE LOWERED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE NIGHT AS CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE. MADE
OTHER MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. /29

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

AVIATION (00Z ISSUANCE)...OTHER THAN A TEMPO GROUP AT PNS FROM
00-02Z FOR MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS...WILL HAVE VCSH WITH VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.  THERE IS A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR
CLOUDS BELOW 1000 FT AND/OR LIGHT FOG DEVELOPING DURING THE LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS...BUT AT THIS POINT THE POTENTIAL IS LESS
THAN SUFFICIENT TO INCLUDE IN A TEMPO GROUP AND WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.  WILL HAVE VCTS BEGINNING AT 17-18Z WITH A TEMPO GROUP
DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON HOURS FOR MVFR CONDITIONS IN
THUNDERSTORMS.  BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
STRONGER DOWNPOURS. /29

*** PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ***

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)...THE MAIN LARGE-SCALE CHANGE
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS THAT WESTERLY FLOW IN THE MID- AND UPPER
TROPOSPHERE BECOMES NWLY BY TUESDAY AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY REGION. THE ELONGATED RIDGE OF TODAY WILL BE
REPLACED BY A DEEP NWLY FLOW. AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT...A
DEEP LAYER OF CLOUDS ADVECT INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT FROM THE NORTH
AND COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT INGREDIENTS FOR ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL...TUESDAY SHOULD BE WETTER THAN TODAY. THUS RAIN CHANCES IN
THE LIKELY CATEGORY FOR SOUTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE AREA TOMORROW ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THERE IS NOTABLE LARGE SCALE LOW LEVEL
CONFLUENCE (AND COMPUTED CONVERGENCE) IN THE WIND FIELD ALONG THE
FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT.  BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS BECOME
NORTHERLY DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY AND WEAK SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ESTABLISHED.  LEFTOVER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING WILL PLAY A ROLE IN MOISTENING THE LOCAL
ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT THIS EVENING. HAVE LEFT
POPS A LITTLE ELEVATED IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD DUE TO THIS REASON.
MADE NO SIGNIFICANT DEPARTURES ON MAX OR MIN TEMPS. MANY AREAS STAND
TO RECEIVE BETWEEN A QUARTER AND A HALF INCH THROUGH TOMORROW
AFTERNOON THIS TIME. SOME AREAS COULD HAVE ISOLATED TOTALS UP TO AN
INCH (HIGHER LOCALLY WHERE SEVERAL THUNDERSTORMS MOVE OVER THE SAME
AREA). 23/JMM

(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...WE EXPECT THAT THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED SOUTHEAST ACCORDING TO GFS
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE BY TUESDAY EVENING. INDICATIONS ARE THAT IT WILL
PUSH SOUTH OVER THE NORTHERN GULF TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST 3
HOURS OF TUESDAY EVENING AND MOSTLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10. BY
MIDNIGHT TUESDAY WE EXPECT THE CONVECTION TO HAVE MOVED OFFSHORE.

THE MAJOR ACTORS NOTED INCLUDE A 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL
REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN START TO MOVE EAST
WEDNESDAY WHILE AT THE SAME TIME A LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN
OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND ALSO MOVE EAST. WE EXPECT THESE
FEATURES WILL HELP MAINTAIN THE STRUCTURE OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM AND
FINALLY PUSH IT OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT.

NUMERICAL OUTPUTS REGARDING THE THERMODYNAMIC PICTURE INDICATE THE
BULK OF CONVECTIVE INGREDIENTS WILL BE SOUTH OF I-10 AS OF
18.00Z...WHEN LI AS SHOWN BY THE SOUNDER IS INITIALIZED SOMEWHAT TOO
LOW COMPARED TO THE 15.12Z GFS AND COMPARED TO THE LIX SOUNDING.
HOWEVER THE PRECIPITABLE WATER IS PRETTY CLOSE AGREEMENT ON ALL
THREE. CAPE IS AVERAGING ABOUT 1600 WITH A MAXIMUM OF 2200. LIFTED
INDEX IS AVERAGING -4 DEGREES WHICH HAS BEEN PRETTY TYPICAL FOR THE
LAST FEW WEEKS DURING DAYLIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL REMAIN JUST
AROUND 2 INCHES. BY 18.06Z THAT SHOULD BE DROPPING RAPIDLY...BUT LOSS
OF SUNLIGHT WILL FURTHER LOWER THE CHANCES OF RAIN NORTH OF I-10. WE
THEREFORE EXPECT LIKELY CHANCES OF MEASURABLE RAIN IN WHICH SHORT
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL
BE PRODUCED BY SOME THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY TUESDAY EVENING. AVERAGE
RAINFALL TOTALS WOULD RANGE FROM 0.25 TO 0.75 INCHES PER 12 HOUR
PERIOD IN OUR AREA TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
RAINFALL 2 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS. AS OF 18.18Z THERE
WILL LIKELY WILL BE NO IMPETUS FOR CONVECTION AT ALL...AND CLEARING
SKIES ARE EXPECTED AS WELL.

FORECAST HIGHS WEDNESDAY REBOUNDED A BIT...ABOUT 2 DEGREES INLAND
AND MOST LIKELY DUE TO DECREASING SKY COVER. THEY WILL BE ABOUT 4
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...AND 2 OR SO BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY NIGHT. FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAV GUIDANCE HAS LOWS 2 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE
LAST MODEL OUTPUT WHICH WOULD PUT IT ABOUT 5 TO 7 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WE RAISED THAT A SMIDGEN TO MATCH NEIGHBORS
BUT PARTS OF THE NORTHERN INLAND REGIONS STILL MAKE IT DOWN TO 62.

77/BD

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST. GFS AND EURO ARE BOTH PHASED PRETTY CLOSELY. THE
WAVE NUMBER 5 MODEL CALCULATIONS INDICATE THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL HANG ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...DAMPENING THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AND ALLOWING A RIDGE TO
BUILD IN THE WEST ATLANTIC REGION AROUND 60 DEGREES WEST. HOWEVER BY
FRIDAY WE SHOULD SEE ISOLATED POPCORN TYPE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CLOSE TO SHORE. MEANWHILE A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WOULD
MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION WITH AN OFFSHORE PUSH INDICATED THUS FAR.
ONCE THAT HAPPENS...A SURFACE RIDGE WOULD DOMINATE OUR WEATHER
PICTURE AS WELL AS THE REST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WOULD BRING CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND SKIES
AND TO ISOLATED CHANCES OF MEASURABLE RAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 2 TO 3 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AND AROUND NORMAL SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
LOWS INLAND FRIDAY WILL BE ABOUT 3 OR 4 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WHEN
COMPARED TO POINTS A LITTLE NORTH OF OUR AREA....EASING CLOSER TO
NORMAL BY NEXT WEEK. 77/BD

MARINE...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG OR
JUST INLAND FROM THE GULF COAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH A WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH OUT OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THE FRONT TO THE NORTH GETS A PUSH...
AND MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE MARINE AREA WITH STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. PRIOR TO THE FROPA...PRIMARILY A LIGHT
TO MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE...WITH A DIURNAL NWLY
COMPONENT OVERNIGHT AND MORE OF A SWLY COMPONENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. BY THE WEEKEND...THE BUILDING RIDGE TO THE NORTH WILL
RESULT IN A STRONGER AND MORE STEADY EASTERLY WIND FLOW OVER THE
MARINE AREA. SEAS INITIALLY IN THE 2-3 FOOT RANGE OVER THE MARINE
AREA TONIGHT...THEN AROUND 2 FEET OR LESS FOR MOST OF THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK...BEFORE BEGINNING TO BUILD GOING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
THE INCREASING EASTERLY FLOW. ISOLATED TO OCNLY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...PRIMARILY OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      73  89  71  91  70 /  30  60  30  20  05
PENSACOLA   75  88  74  91  71 /  40  60  40  10  05
DESTIN      76  88  75  89  74 /  40  60  40  20  05
EVERGREEN   70  90  67  91  63 /  40  60  20  10  05
WAYNESBORO  70  90  66  90  64 /  20  50  20  10  05
CAMDEN      70  90  66  89  62 /  30  40  20  10  05
CRESTVIEW   71  90  68  92  64 /  40  60  30  10  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMOB 152343 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
641 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.AVIATION (00Z ISSUANCE)...OTHER THAN A TEMPO GROUP AT PNS FROM
00-02Z FOR MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS...WILL HAVE VCSH WITH VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.  THERE IS A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR
CLOUDS BELOW 1000 FT AND/OR LIGHT FOG DEVELOPING DURING THE LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS...BUT AT THIS POINT THE POTENTIAL IS LESS
THAN SUFFICIENT TO INCLUDE IN A TEMPO GROUP AND WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.  WILL HAVE VCTS BEGINNING AT 17-18Z WITH A TEMPO GROUP
DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON HOURS FOR MVFR CONDITIONS IN
THUNDERSTORMS.  BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
STRONGER DOWNPOURS. /29

*** PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ***

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)...THE MAIN LARGE-SCALE CHANGE
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS THAT WESTERLY FLOW IN THE MID- AND UPPER
TROPOSPHERE BECOMES NWLY BY TUESDAY AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY REGION. THE ELONGATED RIDGE OF TODAY WILL BE
REPLACED BY A DEEP NWLY FLOW. AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT...A
DEEP LAYER OF CLOUDS ADVECT INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT FROM THE NORTH
AND COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT INGREDIENTS FOR ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL...TUESDAY SHOULD BE WETTER THAN TODAY. THUS RAIN CHANCES IN
THE LIKELY CATEGORY FOR SOUTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE AREA TOMORROW ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THERE IS NOTABLE LARGE SCALE LOW LEVEL
CONFLUENCE (AND COMPUTED CONVERGENCE) IN THE WIND FIELD ALONG THE
FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT.  BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS BECOME
NORTHERLY DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY AND WEAK SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ESTABLISHED.  LEFTOVER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING WILL PLAY A ROLE IN MOISTENING THE LOCAL
ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT THIS EVENING. HAVE LEFT
POPS A LITTLE ELEVATED IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD DUE TO THIS REASON.
MADE NO SIGNIFICANT DEPARTURES ON MAX OR MIN TEMPS. MANY AREAS STAND
TO RECEIVE BETWEEN A QUARTER AND A HALF INCH THROUGH TOMORROW
AFTERNOON THIS TIME. SOME AREAS COULD HAVE ISOLATED TOTALS UP TO AN
INCH (HIGHER LOCALLY WHERE SEVERAL THUNDERSTORMS MOVE OVER THE SAME
AREA). 23/JMM

(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...WE EXPECT THAT THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED SOUTHEAST ACCORDING TO GFS
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE BY TUESDAY EVENING. INDICATIONS ARE THAT IT WILL
PUSH SOUTH OVER THE NORTHERN GULF TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST 3
HOURS OF TUESDAY EVENING AND MOSTLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10. BY
MIDNIGHT TUESDAY WE EXPECT THE CONVECTION TO HAVE MOVED OFFSHORE.

THE MAJOR ACTORS NOTED INCLUDE A 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL
REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN START TO MOVE EAST
WEDNESDAY WHILE AT THE SAME TIME A LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN
OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND ALSO MOVE EAST. WE EXPECT THESE
FEATURES WILL HELP MAINTAIN THE STRUCTURE OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM AND
FINALLY PUSH IT OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT.

NUMERICAL OUTPUTS REGARDING THE THERMODYNAMIC PICTURE INDICATE THE
BULK OF CONVECTIVE INGREDIENTS WILL BE SOUTH OF I-10 AS OF
18.00Z...WHEN LI AS SHOWN BY THE SOUNDER IS INITIALIZED SOMEWHAT TOO
LOW COMPARED TO THE 15.12Z GFS AND COMPARED TO THE LIX SOUNDING.
HOWEVER THE PRECIPITABLE WATER IS PRETTY CLOSE AGREEMENT ON ALL
THREE. CAPE IS AVERAGING ABOUT 1600 WITH A MAXIMUM OF 2200. LIFTED
INDEX IS AVERAGING -4 DEGREES WHICH HAS BEEN PRETTY TYPICAL FOR THE
LAST FEW WEEKS DURING DAYLIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL REMAIN JUST
AROUND 2 INCHES. BY 18.06Z THAT SHOULD BE DROPPING RAPIDLY...BUT LOSS
OF SUNLIGHT WILL FURTHER LOWER THE CHANCES OF RAIN NORTH OF I-10. WE
THEREFORE EXPECT LIKELY CHANCES OF MEASURABLE RAIN IN WHICH SHORT
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL
BE PRODUCED BY SOME THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY TUESDAY EVENING. AVERAGE
RAINFALL TOTALS WOULD RANGE FROM 0.25 TO 0.75 INCHES PER 12 HOUR
PERIOD IN OUR AREA TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
RAINFALL 2 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS. AS OF 18.18Z THERE
WILL LIKELY WILL BE NO IMPETUS FOR CONVECTION AT ALL...AND CLEARING
SKIES ARE EXPECTED AS WELL.

FORECAST HIGHS WEDNESDAY REBOUNDED A BIT...ABOUT 2 DEGREES INLAND
AND MOST LIKELY DUE TO DECREASING SKY COVER. THEY WILL BE ABOUT 4
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...AND 2 OR SO BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY NIGHT. FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAV GUIDANCE HAS LOWS 2 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE
LAST MODEL OUTPUT WHICH WOULD PUT IT ABOUT 5 TO 7 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WE RAISED THAT A SMIDGEN TO MATCH NEIGHBORS
BUT PARTS OF THE NORTHERN INLAND REGIONS STILL MAKE IT DOWN TO 62.

77/BD

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST. GFS AND EURO ARE BOTH PHASED PRETTY CLOSELY. THE
WAVENUMBER 5 MODEL CALCULATIONS INDICATE THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL HANG ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...DAMPENING THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AND ALLOWING A RIDGE TO
BUILD IN THE WEST ATLANTIC REGION AROUND 60 DEGREES WEST. HOWEVER BY
FRIDAY WE SHOULD SEE ISOLATED POPCORN TYPE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CLOSE TO SHORE. MEANWHILE A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WOULD
MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION WITH AN OFFSHORE PUSH INDICATED THUS FAR.
ONCE THAT HAPPENS...A SURFACE RIDGE WOULD DOMINATE OUR WEATHER
PICTURE AS WELL AS THE REST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WOULD BRING CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND SKIES
AND TO ISOLATED CHANCES OF MEASURABLE RAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 2 TO 3 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AND AROUND NORMAL SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
LOWS INLAND FRIDAY WILL BE ABOUT 3 OR 4 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WHEN
COMPARED TO POINTS A LITTLE NORTH OF OUR AREA....EASING CLOSER TO
NORMAL BY NEXT WEEK. 77/BD

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG OR
JUST INLAND FROM THE GULF COAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH A WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH OUT OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THE FRONT TO THE NORTH GETS A PUSH...
AND MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE MARINE AREA WITH STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. PRIOR TO THE FROPA...PRIMARILY A LIGHT
TO MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE...WITH A DIURNAL NWLY
COMPONENT OVERNIGHT AND MORE OF A SWLY COMPONENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. BY THE WEEKEND...THE BUILDING RIDGE TO THE NORTH WILL
RESULT IN A STRONGER AND MORE STEADY EASTERLY WIND FLOW OVER THE
MARINE AREA. SEAS INITIALLY IN THE 2-3 FOOT RANGE OVER THE MARINE
AREA TONIGHT...THEN AROUND 2 FEET OR LESS FOR MOST OF THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK...BEFORE BEGINNING TO BUILD GOING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
THE INCREASING EASTERLY FLOW. ISOLATED TO OCNLY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...PRIMARILY OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      73  89  71  91  70 /  40  60  30  20  05
PENSACOLA   75  88  74  91  71 /  40  60  40  10  05
DESTIN      76  88  75  89  74 /  40  60  40  20  05
EVERGREEN   70  90  67  91  63 /  40  60  20  10  05
WAYNESBORO  70  90  66  90  64 /  30  50  20  10  05
CAMDEN      70  90  66  89  62 /  30  40  20  10  05
CRESTVIEW   71  90  68  92  64 /  40  60  30  10  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMOB 152343 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
641 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.AVIATION (00Z ISSUANCE)...OTHER THAN A TEMPO GROUP AT PNS FROM
00-02Z FOR MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS...WILL HAVE VCSH WITH VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.  THERE IS A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR
CLOUDS BELOW 1000 FT AND/OR LIGHT FOG DEVELOPING DURING THE LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS...BUT AT THIS POINT THE POTENTIAL IS LESS
THAN SUFFICIENT TO INCLUDE IN A TEMPO GROUP AND WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.  WILL HAVE VCTS BEGINNING AT 17-18Z WITH A TEMPO GROUP
DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON HOURS FOR MVFR CONDITIONS IN
THUNDERSTORMS.  BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
STRONGER DOWNPOURS. /29

*** PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ***

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)...THE MAIN LARGE-SCALE CHANGE
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS THAT WESTERLY FLOW IN THE MID- AND UPPER
TROPOSPHERE BECOMES NWLY BY TUESDAY AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY REGION. THE ELONGATED RIDGE OF TODAY WILL BE
REPLACED BY A DEEP NWLY FLOW. AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT...A
DEEP LAYER OF CLOUDS ADVECT INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT FROM THE NORTH
AND COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT INGREDIENTS FOR ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL...TUESDAY SHOULD BE WETTER THAN TODAY. THUS RAIN CHANCES IN
THE LIKELY CATEGORY FOR SOUTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE AREA TOMORROW ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THERE IS NOTABLE LARGE SCALE LOW LEVEL
CONFLUENCE (AND COMPUTED CONVERGENCE) IN THE WIND FIELD ALONG THE
FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT.  BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS BECOME
NORTHERLY DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY AND WEAK SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ESTABLISHED.  LEFTOVER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING WILL PLAY A ROLE IN MOISTENING THE LOCAL
ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT THIS EVENING. HAVE LEFT
POPS A LITTLE ELEVATED IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD DUE TO THIS REASON.
MADE NO SIGNIFICANT DEPARTURES ON MAX OR MIN TEMPS. MANY AREAS STAND
TO RECEIVE BETWEEN A QUARTER AND A HALF INCH THROUGH TOMORROW
AFTERNOON THIS TIME. SOME AREAS COULD HAVE ISOLATED TOTALS UP TO AN
INCH (HIGHER LOCALLY WHERE SEVERAL THUNDERSTORMS MOVE OVER THE SAME
AREA). 23/JMM

(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...WE EXPECT THAT THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED SOUTHEAST ACCORDING TO GFS
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE BY TUESDAY EVENING. INDICATIONS ARE THAT IT WILL
PUSH SOUTH OVER THE NORTHERN GULF TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST 3
HOURS OF TUESDAY EVENING AND MOSTLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10. BY
MIDNIGHT TUESDAY WE EXPECT THE CONVECTION TO HAVE MOVED OFFSHORE.

THE MAJOR ACTORS NOTED INCLUDE A 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL
REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN START TO MOVE EAST
WEDNESDAY WHILE AT THE SAME TIME A LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN
OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND ALSO MOVE EAST. WE EXPECT THESE
FEATURES WILL HELP MAINTAIN THE STRUCTURE OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM AND
FINALLY PUSH IT OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT.

NUMERICAL OUTPUTS REGARDING THE THERMODYNAMIC PICTURE INDICATE THE
BULK OF CONVECTIVE INGREDIENTS WILL BE SOUTH OF I-10 AS OF
18.00Z...WHEN LI AS SHOWN BY THE SOUNDER IS INITIALIZED SOMEWHAT TOO
LOW COMPARED TO THE 15.12Z GFS AND COMPARED TO THE LIX SOUNDING.
HOWEVER THE PRECIPITABLE WATER IS PRETTY CLOSE AGREEMENT ON ALL
THREE. CAPE IS AVERAGING ABOUT 1600 WITH A MAXIMUM OF 2200. LIFTED
INDEX IS AVERAGING -4 DEGREES WHICH HAS BEEN PRETTY TYPICAL FOR THE
LAST FEW WEEKS DURING DAYLIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL REMAIN JUST
AROUND 2 INCHES. BY 18.06Z THAT SHOULD BE DROPPING RAPIDLY...BUT LOSS
OF SUNLIGHT WILL FURTHER LOWER THE CHANCES OF RAIN NORTH OF I-10. WE
THEREFORE EXPECT LIKELY CHANCES OF MEASURABLE RAIN IN WHICH SHORT
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL
BE PRODUCED BY SOME THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY TUESDAY EVENING. AVERAGE
RAINFALL TOTALS WOULD RANGE FROM 0.25 TO 0.75 INCHES PER 12 HOUR
PERIOD IN OUR AREA TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
RAINFALL 2 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS. AS OF 18.18Z THERE
WILL LIKELY WILL BE NO IMPETUS FOR CONVECTION AT ALL...AND CLEARING
SKIES ARE EXPECTED AS WELL.

FORECAST HIGHS WEDNESDAY REBOUNDED A BIT...ABOUT 2 DEGREES INLAND
AND MOST LIKELY DUE TO DECREASING SKY COVER. THEY WILL BE ABOUT 4
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...AND 2 OR SO BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY NIGHT. FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAV GUIDANCE HAS LOWS 2 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE
LAST MODEL OUTPUT WHICH WOULD PUT IT ABOUT 5 TO 7 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WE RAISED THAT A SMIDGEN TO MATCH NEIGHBORS
BUT PARTS OF THE NORTHERN INLAND REGIONS STILL MAKE IT DOWN TO 62.

77/BD

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST. GFS AND EURO ARE BOTH PHASED PRETTY CLOSELY. THE
WAVENUMBER 5 MODEL CALCULATIONS INDICATE THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL HANG ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...DAMPENING THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AND ALLOWING A RIDGE TO
BUILD IN THE WEST ATLANTIC REGION AROUND 60 DEGREES WEST. HOWEVER BY
FRIDAY WE SHOULD SEE ISOLATED POPCORN TYPE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CLOSE TO SHORE. MEANWHILE A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WOULD
MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION WITH AN OFFSHORE PUSH INDICATED THUS FAR.
ONCE THAT HAPPENS...A SURFACE RIDGE WOULD DOMINATE OUR WEATHER
PICTURE AS WELL AS THE REST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WOULD BRING CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND SKIES
AND TO ISOLATED CHANCES OF MEASURABLE RAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 2 TO 3 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AND AROUND NORMAL SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
LOWS INLAND FRIDAY WILL BE ABOUT 3 OR 4 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WHEN
COMPARED TO POINTS A LITTLE NORTH OF OUR AREA....EASING CLOSER TO
NORMAL BY NEXT WEEK. 77/BD

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG OR
JUST INLAND FROM THE GULF COAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH A WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH OUT OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THE FRONT TO THE NORTH GETS A PUSH...
AND MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE MARINE AREA WITH STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. PRIOR TO THE FROPA...PRIMARILY A LIGHT
TO MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE...WITH A DIURNAL NWLY
COMPONENT OVERNIGHT AND MORE OF A SWLY COMPONENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. BY THE WEEKEND...THE BUILDING RIDGE TO THE NORTH WILL
RESULT IN A STRONGER AND MORE STEADY EASTERLY WIND FLOW OVER THE
MARINE AREA. SEAS INITIALLY IN THE 2-3 FOOT RANGE OVER THE MARINE
AREA TONIGHT...THEN AROUND 2 FEET OR LESS FOR MOST OF THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK...BEFORE BEGINNING TO BUILD GOING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
THE INCREASING EASTERLY FLOW. ISOLATED TO OCNLY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...PRIMARILY OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      73  89  71  91  70 /  40  60  30  20  05
PENSACOLA   75  88  74  91  71 /  40  60  40  10  05
DESTIN      76  88  75  89  74 /  40  60  40  20  05
EVERGREEN   70  90  67  91  63 /  40  60  20  10  05
WAYNESBORO  70  90  66  90  64 /  30  50  20  10  05
CAMDEN      70  90  66  89  62 /  30  40  20  10  05
CRESTVIEW   71  90  68  92  64 /  40  60  30  10  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMOB 152108 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
408 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)...THE MAIN LARGE-SCALE CHANGE
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS THAT WESTERLY FLOW IN THE MID- AND UPPER
TROPOSPHERE BECOMES NWLY BY TUESDAY AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY REGION. THE ELONGATED RIDGE OF TODAY WILL BE
REPLACED BY A DEEP NWLY FLOW. AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT...A
DEEP LAYER OF CLOUDS ADVECT INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT FROM THE NORTH
AND COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT INGREDIENTS FOR ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL...TUESDAY SHOULD BE WETTER THAN TODAY. THUS RAIN CHANCES IN
THE LIKELY CATEGORY FOR SOUTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE AREA TOMORROW ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THERE IS NOTABLE LARGE SCALE LOW LEVEL
CONFLUENCE (AND COMPUTED CONVERGENCE) IN THE WIND FIELD ALONG THE
FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT.  BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS BECOME
NORTHERLY DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY AND WEAK SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ESTABLISHED.  LEFTOVER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING WILL PLAY A ROLE IN MOISTENING THE LOCAL
ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT THIS EVENING. HAVE LEFT
POPS A LITTLE ELEVATED IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD DUE TO THIS REASON.
MADE NO SIGNIFICANT DEPARTURES ON MAX OR MIN TEMPS. MANY AREAS STAND
TO RECEIVE BETWEEN A QUARTER AND A HALF INCH THROUGH TOMORROW
AFTERNOON THIS TIME. SOME AREAS COULD HAVE ISOLATED TOTALS UP TO AN
INCH (HIGHER LOCALLY WHERE SEVERAL THUNDERSTORMS MOVE OVER THE SAME
AREA). 23/JMM

(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...WE EXPECT THAT THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED SOUTHEAST ACCORDING TO GFS
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE BY TUESDAY EVENING. INDICATIONS ARE THAT IT WILL
PUSH SOUTH OVER THE NORTHERN GULF TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST 3
HOURS OF TUESDAY EVENING AND MOSTLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10. BY
MIDNIGHT TUESDAY WE EXPECT THE CONVECTION TO HAVE MOVED OFFSHORE.

THE MAJOR ACTORS NOTED INCLUDE A 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL
REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN START TO MOVE EAST
WEDNESDAY WHILE AT THE SAME TIME A LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN
OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND ALSO MOVE EAST. WE EXPECT THESE
FEATURES WILL HELP MAINTAIN THE STRUCTURE OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM AND
FINALLY PUSH IT OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT.

NUMERICAL OUTPUTS REGARDING THE THERMODYNAMIC PICTURE INDICATE THE
BULK OF CONVECTIVE INGREDIENTS WILL BE SOUTH OF I-10 AS OF
18.00Z...WHEN LI AS SHOWN BY THE SOUNDER IS INITIALIZED SOMEWHAT TOO
LOW COMPARED TO THE 15.12Z GFS AND COMPARED TO THE LIX SOUNDING.
HOWEVER THE PRECIPITABLE WATER IS PRETTY CLOSE AGREEMENT ON ALL
THREE. CAPE IS AVERAGING ABOUT 1600 WITH A MAXIMUM OF 2200. LIFTED
INDEX IS AVERAGING -4 DEGREES WHICH HAS BEEN PRETTY TYPICAL FOR THE
LAST FEW WEEKS DURING DAYLIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL REMAIN JUST
AROUND 2 INCHES. BY 18.06Z THAT SHOULD BE DROPPING RAPIDLY...BUT LOSS
OF SUNLIGHT WILL FURTHER LOWER THE CHANCES OF RAIN NORTH OF I-10. WE
THEREFORE EXPECT LIKELY CHANCES OF MEASURABLE RAIN IN WHICH SHORT
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL
BE PRODUCED BY SOME THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY TUESDAY EVENING. AVERAGE
RAINFALL TOTALS WOULD RANGE FROM 0.25 TO 0.75 INCHES PER 12 HOUR
PERIOD IN OUR AREA TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
RAINFALL 2 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS. AS OF 18.18Z THERE
WILL LIKELY WILL BE NO IMPETUS FOR CONVECTION AT ALL...AND CLEARING
SKIES ARE EXPECTED AS WELL.

FORECAST HIGHS WEDNESDAY REBOUNDED A BIT...ABOUT 2 DEGREES INLAND
AND MOST LIKELY DUE TO DECREASING SKY COVER. THEY WILL BE ABOUT 4
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...AND 2 OR SO BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY NIGHT. FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAV GUIDANCE HAS LOWS 2 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE
LAST MODEL OUTPUT WHICH WOULD PUT IT ABOUT 5 TO 7 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WE RAISED THAT A SMIDGEN TO MATCH NEIGHBORS
BUT PARTS OF THE NORTHERN INLAND REGIONS STILL MAKE IT DOWN TO 62.

77/BD

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST. GFS AND EURO ARE BOTH PHASED PRETTY CLOSELY. THE
WAVENUMBER 5 MODEL CALCULATIONS INDICATE THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL HANG ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...DAMPENING THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AND ALLOWING A RIDGE TO
BUILD IN THE WEST ATLANTIC REGION AROUND 60 DEGREES WEST. HOWEVER BY
FRIDAY WE SHOULD SEE ISOLATED POPCORN TYPE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CLOSE TO SHORE. MEANWHILE A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WOULD
MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION WITH AN OFFSHORE PUSH INDICATED THUS FAR.
ONCE THAT HAPPENS...A SURFACE RIDGE WOULD DOMINATE OUR WEATHER
PICTURE AS WELL AS THE REST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WOULD BRING CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND SKIES
AND TO ISOLATED CHANCES OF MEASURABLE RAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 2 TO 3 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AND AROUND NORMAL SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
LOWS INLAND FRIDAY WILL BE ABOUT 3 OR 4 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WHEN
COMPARED TO POINTS A LITTLE NORTH OF OUR AREA....EASING CLOSER TO
NORMAL BY NEXT WEEK. 77/BD

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG OR
JUST INLAND FROM THE GULF COAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH A WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH OUT OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THE FRONT TO THE NORTH GETS A PUSH...
AND MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE MARINE AREA WITH STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. PRIOR TO THE FROPA...PRIMARILY A LIGHT
TO MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE...WITH A DIURNAL NWLY
COMPONENT OVERNIGHT AND MORE OF A SWLY COMPONENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. BY THE WEEKEND...THE BUILDING RIDGE TO THE NORTH WILL
RESULT IN A STRONGER AND MORE STEADY EASTERLY WIND FLOW OVER THE
MARINE AREA. SEAS INITIALLY IN THE 2-3 FOOT RANGE OVER THE MARINE
AREA TONIGHT...THEN AROUND 2 FEET OR LESS FOR MOST OF THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK...BEFORE BEGINNING TO BUILD GOING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
THE INCREASING EASTERLY FLOW. ISOLATED TO OCNLY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...PRIMARILY OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS. 12/DS

&&

.AVIATION (15/18 UTC AND 16/00 UTC ISSUANCES)...THUNDERSTORMS MOST
NUMEROUS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-10 CORRIDOR THROUGH 15.21-23 UTC TIME
FRAME. WILL MAINTAIN TEMPO GROUP AT COASTAL SITES FOR THIS
CONDITION. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL BE INITIATED ALONG SFC STATIONARY
FRONT WEST OF I-65 DURING THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON AFFECTING
INLAND TERMINALS. OVERNIGHT...ANOTHER FRONTAL ZONE MOVES INTO REGION
FROM THE NORTH. CIGS MAY FALL AOB MVFR CONDITIONS BY 16.06 UTC WITH
OCNL RESTRICTIONS IN VSBYS DUE TO LIGHT FOG (ESPECIALLY ALONG COAST
TAFS) DOWN TO MVFR AS WELL. THIS ENDURES UNTIL ABOUT 16.13 UTC
LOCALLY. AFTER 16.15 UTC...REGION WIDE CONDITIONS MAINLY VFR UNTIL
SCT-NMRS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AFTER THAT TIME.
THIS WILL CREATE AREAS OF MVFR CONDITION DUE TO CIGS INVOF COLD
FRONT AND ASSOCIATED OCNL IFR DUE TO VSBYS IN STRONGER DOWNPOURS.
23/JMM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      73  89  71  91  70 /  40  60  30  20  05
PENSACOLA   75  88  74  91  71 /  40  60  40  10  05
DESTIN      76  88  75  89  74 /  40  60  40  20  05
EVERGREEN   70  90  67  91  63 /  40  60  20  10  05
WAYNESBORO  70  90  66  90  64 /  30  50  20  10  05
CAMDEN      70  90  66  89  62 /  30  40  20  10  05
CRESTVIEW   71  90  68  92  64 /  40  60  30  10  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMOB 152108 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
408 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)...THE MAIN LARGE-SCALE CHANGE
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS THAT WESTERLY FLOW IN THE MID- AND UPPER
TROPOSPHERE BECOMES NWLY BY TUESDAY AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY REGION. THE ELONGATED RIDGE OF TODAY WILL BE
REPLACED BY A DEEP NWLY FLOW. AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT...A
DEEP LAYER OF CLOUDS ADVECT INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT FROM THE NORTH
AND COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT INGREDIENTS FOR ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL...TUESDAY SHOULD BE WETTER THAN TODAY. THUS RAIN CHANCES IN
THE LIKELY CATEGORY FOR SOUTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE AREA TOMORROW ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THERE IS NOTABLE LARGE SCALE LOW LEVEL
CONFLUENCE (AND COMPUTED CONVERGENCE) IN THE WIND FIELD ALONG THE
FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT.  BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS BECOME
NORTHERLY DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY AND WEAK SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ESTABLISHED.  LEFTOVER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING WILL PLAY A ROLE IN MOISTENING THE LOCAL
ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT THIS EVENING. HAVE LEFT
POPS A LITTLE ELEVATED IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD DUE TO THIS REASON.
MADE NO SIGNIFICANT DEPARTURES ON MAX OR MIN TEMPS. MANY AREAS STAND
TO RECEIVE BETWEEN A QUARTER AND A HALF INCH THROUGH TOMORROW
AFTERNOON THIS TIME. SOME AREAS COULD HAVE ISOLATED TOTALS UP TO AN
INCH (HIGHER LOCALLY WHERE SEVERAL THUNDERSTORMS MOVE OVER THE SAME
AREA). 23/JMM

(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...WE EXPECT THAT THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED SOUTHEAST ACCORDING TO GFS
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE BY TUESDAY EVENING. INDICATIONS ARE THAT IT WILL
PUSH SOUTH OVER THE NORTHERN GULF TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST 3
HOURS OF TUESDAY EVENING AND MOSTLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10. BY
MIDNIGHT TUESDAY WE EXPECT THE CONVECTION TO HAVE MOVED OFFSHORE.

THE MAJOR ACTORS NOTED INCLUDE A 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL
REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN START TO MOVE EAST
WEDNESDAY WHILE AT THE SAME TIME A LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN
OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND ALSO MOVE EAST. WE EXPECT THESE
FEATURES WILL HELP MAINTAIN THE STRUCTURE OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM AND
FINALLY PUSH IT OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT.

NUMERICAL OUTPUTS REGARDING THE THERMODYNAMIC PICTURE INDICATE THE
BULK OF CONVECTIVE INGREDIENTS WILL BE SOUTH OF I-10 AS OF
18.00Z...WHEN LI AS SHOWN BY THE SOUNDER IS INITIALIZED SOMEWHAT TOO
LOW COMPARED TO THE 15.12Z GFS AND COMPARED TO THE LIX SOUNDING.
HOWEVER THE PRECIPITABLE WATER IS PRETTY CLOSE AGREEMENT ON ALL
THREE. CAPE IS AVERAGING ABOUT 1600 WITH A MAXIMUM OF 2200. LIFTED
INDEX IS AVERAGING -4 DEGREES WHICH HAS BEEN PRETTY TYPICAL FOR THE
LAST FEW WEEKS DURING DAYLIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL REMAIN JUST
AROUND 2 INCHES. BY 18.06Z THAT SHOULD BE DROPPING RAPIDLY...BUT LOSS
OF SUNLIGHT WILL FURTHER LOWER THE CHANCES OF RAIN NORTH OF I-10. WE
THEREFORE EXPECT LIKELY CHANCES OF MEASURABLE RAIN IN WHICH SHORT
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL
BE PRODUCED BY SOME THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY TUESDAY EVENING. AVERAGE
RAINFALL TOTALS WOULD RANGE FROM 0.25 TO 0.75 INCHES PER 12 HOUR
PERIOD IN OUR AREA TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
RAINFALL 2 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS. AS OF 18.18Z THERE
WILL LIKELY WILL BE NO IMPETUS FOR CONVECTION AT ALL...AND CLEARING
SKIES ARE EXPECTED AS WELL.

FORECAST HIGHS WEDNESDAY REBOUNDED A BIT...ABOUT 2 DEGREES INLAND
AND MOST LIKELY DUE TO DECREASING SKY COVER. THEY WILL BE ABOUT 4
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...AND 2 OR SO BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY NIGHT. FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAV GUIDANCE HAS LOWS 2 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE
LAST MODEL OUTPUT WHICH WOULD PUT IT ABOUT 5 TO 7 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WE RAISED THAT A SMIDGEN TO MATCH NEIGHBORS
BUT PARTS OF THE NORTHERN INLAND REGIONS STILL MAKE IT DOWN TO 62.

77/BD

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST. GFS AND EURO ARE BOTH PHASED PRETTY CLOSELY. THE
WAVENUMBER 5 MODEL CALCULATIONS INDICATE THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL HANG ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...DAMPENING THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AND ALLOWING A RIDGE TO
BUILD IN THE WEST ATLANTIC REGION AROUND 60 DEGREES WEST. HOWEVER BY
FRIDAY WE SHOULD SEE ISOLATED POPCORN TYPE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CLOSE TO SHORE. MEANWHILE A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WOULD
MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION WITH AN OFFSHORE PUSH INDICATED THUS FAR.
ONCE THAT HAPPENS...A SURFACE RIDGE WOULD DOMINATE OUR WEATHER
PICTURE AS WELL AS THE REST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WOULD BRING CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND SKIES
AND TO ISOLATED CHANCES OF MEASURABLE RAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 2 TO 3 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AND AROUND NORMAL SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
LOWS INLAND FRIDAY WILL BE ABOUT 3 OR 4 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WHEN
COMPARED TO POINTS A LITTLE NORTH OF OUR AREA....EASING CLOSER TO
NORMAL BY NEXT WEEK. 77/BD

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG OR
JUST INLAND FROM THE GULF COAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH A WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH OUT OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THE FRONT TO THE NORTH GETS A PUSH...
AND MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE MARINE AREA WITH STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. PRIOR TO THE FROPA...PRIMARILY A LIGHT
TO MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE...WITH A DIURNAL NWLY
COMPONENT OVERNIGHT AND MORE OF A SWLY COMPONENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. BY THE WEEKEND...THE BUILDING RIDGE TO THE NORTH WILL
RESULT IN A STRONGER AND MORE STEADY EASTERLY WIND FLOW OVER THE
MARINE AREA. SEAS INITIALLY IN THE 2-3 FOOT RANGE OVER THE MARINE
AREA TONIGHT...THEN AROUND 2 FEET OR LESS FOR MOST OF THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK...BEFORE BEGINNING TO BUILD GOING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
THE INCREASING EASTERLY FLOW. ISOLATED TO OCNLY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...PRIMARILY OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS. 12/DS

&&

.AVIATION (15/18 UTC AND 16/00 UTC ISSUANCES)...THUNDERSTORMS MOST
NUMEROUS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-10 CORRIDOR THROUGH 15.21-23 UTC TIME
FRAME. WILL MAINTAIN TEMPO GROUP AT COASTAL SITES FOR THIS
CONDITION. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL BE INITIATED ALONG SFC STATIONARY
FRONT WEST OF I-65 DURING THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON AFFECTING
INLAND TERMINALS. OVERNIGHT...ANOTHER FRONTAL ZONE MOVES INTO REGION
FROM THE NORTH. CIGS MAY FALL AOB MVFR CONDITIONS BY 16.06 UTC WITH
OCNL RESTRICTIONS IN VSBYS DUE TO LIGHT FOG (ESPECIALLY ALONG COAST
TAFS) DOWN TO MVFR AS WELL. THIS ENDURES UNTIL ABOUT 16.13 UTC
LOCALLY. AFTER 16.15 UTC...REGION WIDE CONDITIONS MAINLY VFR UNTIL
SCT-NMRS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AFTER THAT TIME.
THIS WILL CREATE AREAS OF MVFR CONDITION DUE TO CIGS INVOF COLD
FRONT AND ASSOCIATED OCNL IFR DUE TO VSBYS IN STRONGER DOWNPOURS.
23/JMM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      73  89  71  91  70 /  40  60  30  20  05
PENSACOLA   75  88  74  91  71 /  40  60  40  10  05
DESTIN      76  88  75  89  74 /  40  60  40  20  05
EVERGREEN   70  90  67  91  63 /  40  60  20  10  05
WAYNESBORO  70  90  66  90  64 /  30  50  20  10  05
CAMDEN      70  90  66  89  62 /  30  40  20  10  05
CRESTVIEW   71  90  68  92  64 /  40  60  30  10  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KMOB 152058
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
358 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)...SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER
COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY TONIGHT. A TROPICAL WAVE NOTED IN SFC DATA AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE
MOVING OFF TOWARD THE WEST THROUGH MONDAY.  WITH THIS...THE
NORTHEAST TO EAST WIND FLOW OVER THE REGION WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY ON MONDAY...ALLOWING THE SFC BOUNDARY TO LIFT SLOWLY
BACK TO THE NORTH AND INTO THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF MS/AL BY LATE
MONDAY. LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...THE
SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION IS THE PRIMARY DRIVING FORCE BEHIND
CONVECTION AS UPPER RIDGING HAS BUILT OVER THE REGION. ALL SHOWERS
AND STORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON THUS FAR HAVE BEEN
GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR. EXPECT THESE TO MOVE
SLIGHTLY FURTHER INLAND...THEN BEGIN TO DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET. ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVER THE OFFSHORE
GULF WATERS OVERNIGHT. THE SFC BOUNDARY...COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE (PRIMARILY SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY) AND AFTERNOON
HEATING ON MONDAY...WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS ON TOMORROW AFTERNOON (WITH THE BEST RAIN CHANCES
GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH-EAST OF I-65). WITH MUCH OF THE INTERIOR
COUNTIES JUST ON THE COOLER AND DRIER SIDE OF THE FRONT TONIGHT...
MIN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S IN THOSE LOCATIONS.
CLOSER TO THE COAST AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...LOWS IN THE LOW TO
MID 70S. MAX TEMPS ON MONDAY GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA...EXCEPT FOR A NARROW AREA ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF
UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90. 23/JMM

&&

(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...WE EXPECT THAT THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED SOUTHEAST ACCORDING TO GFS
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE BY TUESDAY EVENING. INDICATIONS ARE THAT IT WILL
PUSH SOUTH OVER THE NORTHERN GULF TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST 3
HOURS OF TUESDAY EVENING AND MOSTLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10. BY
MIDNIGHT TUESDAY WE EXPECT THE CONVECTION TO HAVE MOVED OFFSHORE.

THE MAJOR ACTORS NOTED INCLUDE A 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL
REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN START TO MOVE EAST
WEDNESDAY WHILE AT THE SAME TIME A LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN
OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND ALSO MOVE EAST. WE EXPECT THESE
FEATURES WILL HELP MAINTAIN THE STRUCTURE OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM AND
FINALLY PUSH IT OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT.

NUMERICAL OUTPUTS REGARDING THE THERMODYNAMIC PICTURE INDICATE THE
BULK OF CONVECTIVE INGREDIENTS WILL BE SOUTH OF I-10 AS OF
18.00Z...WHEN LI AS SHOWN BY THE SOUNDER IS INITIALIZED SOMEWHAT TOO
LOW COMPARED TO THE 15.12Z GFS AND COMPARED TO THE LIX SOUNDING.
HOWEVER THE PRECIPITABLE WATER IS PRETTY CLOSE AGREEMENT ON ALL
THREE. CAPE IS AVERAGING ABOUT 1600 WITH A MAXIMUM OF 2200. LIFTED
INDEX IS AVERAGING -4 DEGREES WHICH HAS BEEN PRETTY TYPICAL FOR THE
LAST FEW WEEKS DURING DAYLIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL REMAIN JUST
AROUND 2 INCHES. BY 18.06Z THAT SHOULD BE DROPPING RAPIDLY...BUT LOSS
OF SUNLIGHT WILL FURTHER LOWER THE CHANCES OF RAIN NORTH OF I-10. WE
THEREFORE EXPECT LIKELY CHANCES OF MEASURABLE RAIN IN WHICH SHORT
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL
BE PRODUCED BY SOME THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY TUESDAY EVENING. AVERAGE
RAINFALL TOTALS WOULD RANGE FROM 0.25 TO 0.75 INCHES PER 12 HOUR
PERIOD IN OUR AREA TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
RAINFALL 2 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS. AS OF 18.18Z THERE
WILL LIKELY WILL BE NO IMPETUS FOR CONVECTION AT ALL...AND CLEARING
SKIES ARE EXPECTED AS WELL.

FORECAST HIGHS WEDNESDAY REBOUNDED A BIT...ABOUT 2 DEGREES INLAND
AND MOST LIKELY DUE TO DECREASING SKY COVER. THEY WILL BE ABOUT 4
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...AND 2 OR SO BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY NIGHT. FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAV GUIDANCE HAS LOWS 2 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE
LAST MODEL OUTPUT WHICH WOULD PUT IT ABOUT 5 TO 7 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WE RAISED THAT A SMIDGE TO MATCH NEIGHBORS
BUT PARTS OF THE NORTHERN INLAND REGIONS STILL MAKE IT DOWN TO 62.

77/BD

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST. GFS AND EURO ARE BOTH PHASED PRETTY CLOSELY. THE
WAVENUMBER 5 MODEL CALCULATIONS INDICATE THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL HANG ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...DAMPENING THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AND ALLOWING A RIDGE TO
BUILD IN THE WEST ATLANTIC REGION AROUND 60 DEGREES WEST. HOWEVER BY
FRIDAY WE SHOULD SEE ISOLATED POPCORN TYPE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CLOSE TO SHORE. MEANWHILE A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WOULD
MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION WITH AN OFFSHORE PUSH INDICATED THUS FAR.
ONCE THAT HAPPENS...A SURFACE RIDGE WOULD DOMINATE OUR WEATHER
PICTURE AS WELL AS THE REST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WOULD BRING CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND SKIES
AND TO ISOLATED CHANCES OF MEASURABLE RAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 2 TO 3 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AND AROUND NORMAL SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
LOWS INLAND FRIDAY WILL BE ABOUT 3 OR 4 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WHEN
COMPARED TO POINTS A LITTLE NORTH OF OUR AREA....EASING CLOSER TO
NORMAL BY NEXT WEEK. 77/BD

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG OR
JUST INLAND FROM THE GULF COAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH A WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH OUT OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THE FRONT TO THE NORTH GETS A PUSH...
AND MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE MARINE AREA WITH STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. PRIOR TO THE FROPA...PRIMARILY A LIGHT
TO MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE...WITH A DIURNAL NWLY
COMPONENT OVERNIGHT AND MORE OF A SWLY COMPONENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. BY THE WEEKEND...THE BUILDING RIDGE TO THE NORTH WILL
RESULT IN A STRONGER AND MORE STEADY EASTERLY WIND FLOW OVER THE
MARINE AREA. SEAS INITIALLY IN THE 2-3 FOOT RANGE OVER THE MARINE
AREA TONIGHT...THEN AROUND 2 FEET OR LESS FOR MOST OF THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK...BEFORE BEGINNING TO BUILD GOING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
THE INCREASING EASTERLY FLOW. ISOLATED TO OCNLY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...PRIMARILY OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS. 12/DS

&&

.AVIATION (15/18 UTC AND 16/00 UTC ISSUANCES)...THUNDERSTORMS MOST
NUMEROUS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-10 CORRIDOR THROUGH 15.21-23 UTC TIME
FRAME. WILL MAINTAIN TEMPO GROUP AT COASTAL SITES FOR THIS
CONDITION. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL BE INITIATED ALONG SFC STATIONARY
FRONT WEST OF I-65 DURING THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON AFFECTING
INLAND TERMINALS. OVERNIGHT...ANOTHER FRONTAL ZONE MOVES INTO REGION
FROM THE NORTH. CIGS MAY FALL AOB MVFR CONDITIONS BY 16.06 UTC WITH
OCNL RESTRICTIONS IN VSBYS DUE TO LIGHT FOG (ESPECIALLY ALONG COAST
TAFS) DOWN TO MVFR AS WELL. THIS ENDURES UNTIL ABOUT 16.13 UTC
LOCALLY. AFTER 16.15 UTC...REGION WIDE CONDITIONS MAINLY VFR UNTIL
SCT-NMRS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AFTER THAT TIME.
THIS WILL CREATE AREAS OF MVFR CONDITION DUE TO CIGS INVOF COLD
FRONT AND ASSOCIATED OCNL IFR DUE TO VSBYS IN STRONGER DOWNPOURS.
23/JMM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      73  89  71  91  70 /  40  60  30  20  05
PENSACOLA   75  88  74  91  71 /  40  60  40  10  05
DESTIN      76  88  75  89  74 /  40  60  40  20  05
EVERGREEN   70  90  67  91  63 /  40  60  20  10  05
WAYNESBORO  70  90  66  90  64 /  30  50  20  10  05
CAMDEN      70  90  66  89  62 /  30  40  20  10  05
CRESTVIEW   71  90  68  92  64 /  40  60  30  10  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KMOB 152058
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
358 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)...SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER
COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY TONIGHT. A TROPICAL WAVE NOTED IN SFC DATA AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE
MOVING OFF TOWARD THE WEST THROUGH MONDAY.  WITH THIS...THE
NORTHEAST TO EAST WIND FLOW OVER THE REGION WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY ON MONDAY...ALLOWING THE SFC BOUNDARY TO LIFT SLOWLY
BACK TO THE NORTH AND INTO THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF MS/AL BY LATE
MONDAY. LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...THE
SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION IS THE PRIMARY DRIVING FORCE BEHIND
CONVECTION AS UPPER RIDGING HAS BUILT OVER THE REGION. ALL SHOWERS
AND STORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON THUS FAR HAVE BEEN
GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR. EXPECT THESE TO MOVE
SLIGHTLY FURTHER INLAND...THEN BEGIN TO DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET. ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVER THE OFFSHORE
GULF WATERS OVERNIGHT. THE SFC BOUNDARY...COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE (PRIMARILY SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY) AND AFTERNOON
HEATING ON MONDAY...WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS ON TOMORROW AFTERNOON (WITH THE BEST RAIN CHANCES
GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH-EAST OF I-65). WITH MUCH OF THE INTERIOR
COUNTIES JUST ON THE COOLER AND DRIER SIDE OF THE FRONT TONIGHT...
MIN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S IN THOSE LOCATIONS.
CLOSER TO THE COAST AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...LOWS IN THE LOW TO
MID 70S. MAX TEMPS ON MONDAY GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA...EXCEPT FOR A NARROW AREA ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF
UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90. 23/JMM

&&

(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...WE EXPECT THAT THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED SOUTHEAST ACCORDING TO GFS
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE BY TUESDAY EVENING. INDICATIONS ARE THAT IT WILL
PUSH SOUTH OVER THE NORTHERN GULF TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST 3
HOURS OF TUESDAY EVENING AND MOSTLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10. BY
MIDNIGHT TUESDAY WE EXPECT THE CONVECTION TO HAVE MOVED OFFSHORE.

THE MAJOR ACTORS NOTED INCLUDE A 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL
REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN START TO MOVE EAST
WEDNESDAY WHILE AT THE SAME TIME A LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN
OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND ALSO MOVE EAST. WE EXPECT THESE
FEATURES WILL HELP MAINTAIN THE STRUCTURE OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM AND
FINALLY PUSH IT OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT.

NUMERICAL OUTPUTS REGARDING THE THERMODYNAMIC PICTURE INDICATE THE
BULK OF CONVECTIVE INGREDIENTS WILL BE SOUTH OF I-10 AS OF
18.00Z...WHEN LI AS SHOWN BY THE SOUNDER IS INITIALIZED SOMEWHAT TOO
LOW COMPARED TO THE 15.12Z GFS AND COMPARED TO THE LIX SOUNDING.
HOWEVER THE PRECIPITABLE WATER IS PRETTY CLOSE AGREEMENT ON ALL
THREE. CAPE IS AVERAGING ABOUT 1600 WITH A MAXIMUM OF 2200. LIFTED
INDEX IS AVERAGING -4 DEGREES WHICH HAS BEEN PRETTY TYPICAL FOR THE
LAST FEW WEEKS DURING DAYLIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL REMAIN JUST
AROUND 2 INCHES. BY 18.06Z THAT SHOULD BE DROPPING RAPIDLY...BUT LOSS
OF SUNLIGHT WILL FURTHER LOWER THE CHANCES OF RAIN NORTH OF I-10. WE
THEREFORE EXPECT LIKELY CHANCES OF MEASURABLE RAIN IN WHICH SHORT
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL
BE PRODUCED BY SOME THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY TUESDAY EVENING. AVERAGE
RAINFALL TOTALS WOULD RANGE FROM 0.25 TO 0.75 INCHES PER 12 HOUR
PERIOD IN OUR AREA TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
RAINFALL 2 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS. AS OF 18.18Z THERE
WILL LIKELY WILL BE NO IMPETUS FOR CONVECTION AT ALL...AND CLEARING
SKIES ARE EXPECTED AS WELL.

FORECAST HIGHS WEDNESDAY REBOUNDED A BIT...ABOUT 2 DEGREES INLAND
AND MOST LIKELY DUE TO DECREASING SKY COVER. THEY WILL BE ABOUT 4
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...AND 2 OR SO BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY NIGHT. FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAV GUIDANCE HAS LOWS 2 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE
LAST MODEL OUTPUT WHICH WOULD PUT IT ABOUT 5 TO 7 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WE RAISED THAT A SMIDGE TO MATCH NEIGHBORS
BUT PARTS OF THE NORTHERN INLAND REGIONS STILL MAKE IT DOWN TO 62.

77/BD

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST. GFS AND EURO ARE BOTH PHASED PRETTY CLOSELY. THE
WAVENUMBER 5 MODEL CALCULATIONS INDICATE THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL HANG ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...DAMPENING THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AND ALLOWING A RIDGE TO
BUILD IN THE WEST ATLANTIC REGION AROUND 60 DEGREES WEST. HOWEVER BY
FRIDAY WE SHOULD SEE ISOLATED POPCORN TYPE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CLOSE TO SHORE. MEANWHILE A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WOULD
MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION WITH AN OFFSHORE PUSH INDICATED THUS FAR.
ONCE THAT HAPPENS...A SURFACE RIDGE WOULD DOMINATE OUR WEATHER
PICTURE AS WELL AS THE REST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WOULD BRING CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND SKIES
AND TO ISOLATED CHANCES OF MEASURABLE RAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 2 TO 3 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AND AROUND NORMAL SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
LOWS INLAND FRIDAY WILL BE ABOUT 3 OR 4 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WHEN
COMPARED TO POINTS A LITTLE NORTH OF OUR AREA....EASING CLOSER TO
NORMAL BY NEXT WEEK. 77/BD

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG OR
JUST INLAND FROM THE GULF COAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH A WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH OUT OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THE FRONT TO THE NORTH GETS A PUSH...
AND MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE MARINE AREA WITH STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. PRIOR TO THE FROPA...PRIMARILY A LIGHT
TO MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE...WITH A DIURNAL NWLY
COMPONENT OVERNIGHT AND MORE OF A SWLY COMPONENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. BY THE WEEKEND...THE BUILDING RIDGE TO THE NORTH WILL
RESULT IN A STRONGER AND MORE STEADY EASTERLY WIND FLOW OVER THE
MARINE AREA. SEAS INITIALLY IN THE 2-3 FOOT RANGE OVER THE MARINE
AREA TONIGHT...THEN AROUND 2 FEET OR LESS FOR MOST OF THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK...BEFORE BEGINNING TO BUILD GOING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
THE INCREASING EASTERLY FLOW. ISOLATED TO OCNLY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...PRIMARILY OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS. 12/DS

&&

.AVIATION (15/18 UTC AND 16/00 UTC ISSUANCES)...THUNDERSTORMS MOST
NUMEROUS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-10 CORRIDOR THROUGH 15.21-23 UTC TIME
FRAME. WILL MAINTAIN TEMPO GROUP AT COASTAL SITES FOR THIS
CONDITION. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL BE INITIATED ALONG SFC STATIONARY
FRONT WEST OF I-65 DURING THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON AFFECTING
INLAND TERMINALS. OVERNIGHT...ANOTHER FRONTAL ZONE MOVES INTO REGION
FROM THE NORTH. CIGS MAY FALL AOB MVFR CONDITIONS BY 16.06 UTC WITH
OCNL RESTRICTIONS IN VSBYS DUE TO LIGHT FOG (ESPECIALLY ALONG COAST
TAFS) DOWN TO MVFR AS WELL. THIS ENDURES UNTIL ABOUT 16.13 UTC
LOCALLY. AFTER 16.15 UTC...REGION WIDE CONDITIONS MAINLY VFR UNTIL
SCT-NMRS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AFTER THAT TIME.
THIS WILL CREATE AREAS OF MVFR CONDITION DUE TO CIGS INVOF COLD
FRONT AND ASSOCIATED OCNL IFR DUE TO VSBYS IN STRONGER DOWNPOURS.
23/JMM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      73  89  71  91  70 /  40  60  30  20  05
PENSACOLA   75  88  74  91  71 /  40  60  40  10  05
DESTIN      76  88  75  89  74 /  40  60  40  20  05
EVERGREEN   70  90  67  91  63 /  40  60  20  10  05
WAYNESBORO  70  90  66  90  64 /  30  50  20  10  05
CAMDEN      70  90  66  89  62 /  30  40  20  10  05
CRESTVIEW   71  90  68  92  64 /  40  60  30  10  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMOB 151744 CCA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED TAF TIME..
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1239 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.AVIATION...[15.18 UTC TAF CYCLE]...THUNDERSTORMS MOST NUMEROUS ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-10 CORRIDOR THROUGH 15.21-23 UTC TIME FRAME. WILL
MAINTAIN TEMPO GROUP AT COASTAL SITES FOR THIS CONDITION. ADDITIONAL
STORMS WILL BE INITIATED ALONG SFC STATIONARY FRONT WEST OF I-65
DURING THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON AFFECTING INLAND TERMINALS.
OVERNIGHT...ANOTHER FRONTAL ZONE MOVES INTO REGION FROM THE NORTH.
CIGS MAY FALL AOB MVFR CONDITIONS BY 16.06 UTC WITH OCNL RESTRICTIONS
IN VSBYS DUE TO LIGHT FOG (ESPECIALLY ALONG COAST TAFS) DOWN TO MVFR
AS WELL. THIS ENDURES UNTIL ABOUT 16.13 UTC LOCALLY. AFTER 16.15
UTC...REGION WIDE CONDITIONS MAINLY VFR UNTIL SCT-NMRS SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AFTER THAT TIME. THIS WILL CREATE
AREAS OF MVFR CONDITION DUE TO CIGS INVOF COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
OCNL IFR DUE TO VSBYS IN STRONGER DOWNPOURS. /23 JMM

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 953 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

UPDATE...ON THE LARGE SCALE A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS OVER THE
AREA. ALTHOUGH AN ELONGATED DEEPLY REFLECTED LARGE SCALE RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM SOUTH TEXAS TO THE FAR SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC...GEOPOTENTIAL
HEIGHTS SLOWLY FALL TODAY AS THE BASE OF A LARGE SCALE TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY ERODES THE AMPLITUDE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
RIDGE. AS THE INVERTED TROUGH AXIS IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE CONTINUES
MOVING WESTWARD...WE BECOME EVEN MORE ON THE MOIST SIDE (OR EAST
SIDE) WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS ENHANCED. THE LOCAL ATMOSPHERE
IS NOT CAPPED AND WITH AMPLE MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE AND MLCAPES
APPROACHING 2550 J/KG ALREADY SE OF I-65 WE WILL SEE HIGHER END SCT-
LIKELY RAIN CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW 45 MPH
WIND GUSTS WITH MORE INTENSE DEEP CONVECTION..

CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS (1) AN EXTENSIVE LOW LEVEL CLOUD
SHIELD JUST NORTHEAST OF OUR CWFA WHICH IS ERODING TO THE NORTHEAST
(2) SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS (3) GOOD HEATING IN THE ABSENCE OF CLOUDS ALONG THE BEACHES
WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR SEA-BREEZE ENHANCEMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

IN THE NEAR-TERM...EXPECT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO FILL
IN THROUGH MIDDAY...MOVING GENERALLY TO THE NORTH 10 TO 15 MPH. ALL
GRIDS LOOKED ON TRACK SO WILL HOLD ON ANY UPDATES THERE. BEST
COVERAGE EAST OF I-65 AND MORE LINEAR CONVECTION MAY FIRE ALONG
STATIONARY FRONT AND GIVE ANOTHER ROUND TO AREAS EAST OF I-65 LATER
IN THE AFTERNOON.

WE ARE LOOKING INTO POSSIBLE UPGRADING THE RIP CURRENT RISK TO HIGH
EAST OF MOBILE BAY. POSSIBLE UPGRADE INT HE WORKS. / 23 JMM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      90  73  88  70  90 /  50  30  60  30  20
PENSACOLA   89  75  88  73  90 /  60  40  60  30  20
DESTIN      89  76  88  74  89 /  60  40  60  40  20
EVERGREEN   91  70  89  67  89 /  60  40  60  20  10
WAYNESBORO  91  70  88  67  89 /  30  20  50  20  10
CAMDEN      91  70  90  67  89 /  30  30  40  20  10
CRESTVIEW   91  71  88  68  90 /  60  40  60  30  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$













000
FXUS64 KMOB 151744 CCA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED TAF TIME..
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1239 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.AVIATION...[15.18 UTC TAF CYCLE]...THUNDERSTORMS MOST NUMEROUS ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-10 CORRIDOR THROUGH 15.21-23 UTC TIME FRAME. WILL
MAINTAIN TEMPO GROUP AT COASTAL SITES FOR THIS CONDITION. ADDITIONAL
STORMS WILL BE INITIATED ALONG SFC STATIONARY FRONT WEST OF I-65
DURING THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON AFFECTING INLAND TERMINALS.
OVERNIGHT...ANOTHER FRONTAL ZONE MOVES INTO REGION FROM THE NORTH.
CIGS MAY FALL AOB MVFR CONDITIONS BY 16.06 UTC WITH OCNL RESTRICTIONS
IN VSBYS DUE TO LIGHT FOG (ESPECIALLY ALONG COAST TAFS) DOWN TO MVFR
AS WELL. THIS ENDURES UNTIL ABOUT 16.13 UTC LOCALLY. AFTER 16.15
UTC...REGION WIDE CONDITIONS MAINLY VFR UNTIL SCT-NMRS SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AFTER THAT TIME. THIS WILL CREATE
AREAS OF MVFR CONDITION DUE TO CIGS INVOF COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
OCNL IFR DUE TO VSBYS IN STRONGER DOWNPOURS. /23 JMM

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 953 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

UPDATE...ON THE LARGE SCALE A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS OVER THE
AREA. ALTHOUGH AN ELONGATED DEEPLY REFLECTED LARGE SCALE RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM SOUTH TEXAS TO THE FAR SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC...GEOPOTENTIAL
HEIGHTS SLOWLY FALL TODAY AS THE BASE OF A LARGE SCALE TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY ERODES THE AMPLITUDE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
RIDGE. AS THE INVERTED TROUGH AXIS IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE CONTINUES
MOVING WESTWARD...WE BECOME EVEN MORE ON THE MOIST SIDE (OR EAST
SIDE) WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS ENHANCED. THE LOCAL ATMOSPHERE
IS NOT CAPPED AND WITH AMPLE MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE AND MLCAPES
APPROACHING 2550 J/KG ALREADY SE OF I-65 WE WILL SEE HIGHER END SCT-
LIKELY RAIN CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW 45 MPH
WIND GUSTS WITH MORE INTENSE DEEP CONVECTION..

CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS (1) AN EXTENSIVE LOW LEVEL CLOUD
SHIELD JUST NORTHEAST OF OUR CWFA WHICH IS ERODING TO THE NORTHEAST
(2) SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS (3) GOOD HEATING IN THE ABSENCE OF CLOUDS ALONG THE BEACHES
WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR SEA-BREEZE ENHANCEMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

IN THE NEAR-TERM...EXPECT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO FILL
IN THROUGH MIDDAY...MOVING GENERALLY TO THE NORTH 10 TO 15 MPH. ALL
GRIDS LOOKED ON TRACK SO WILL HOLD ON ANY UPDATES THERE. BEST
COVERAGE EAST OF I-65 AND MORE LINEAR CONVECTION MAY FIRE ALONG
STATIONARY FRONT AND GIVE ANOTHER ROUND TO AREAS EAST OF I-65 LATER
IN THE AFTERNOON.

WE ARE LOOKING INTO POSSIBLE UPGRADING THE RIP CURRENT RISK TO HIGH
EAST OF MOBILE BAY. POSSIBLE UPGRADE INT HE WORKS. / 23 JMM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      90  73  88  70  90 /  50  30  60  30  20
PENSACOLA   89  75  88  73  90 /  60  40  60  30  20
DESTIN      89  76  88  74  89 /  60  40  60  40  20
EVERGREEN   91  70  89  67  89 /  60  40  60  20  10
WAYNESBORO  91  70  88  67  89 /  30  20  50  20  10
CAMDEN      91  70  90  67  89 /  30  30  40  20  10
CRESTVIEW   91  71  88  68  90 /  60  40  60  30  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$












000
FXUS64 KMOB 151739 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1239 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.AVIATION...[15.12 UTC TAF CYCLE]...THUNDERSTORMS MOST NUMEROUS ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-10 CORRIDOR THROUGH 15.21-23 UTC TIME FRAME. WILL
MAINTAIN TEMPO GROUP AT COASTAL SITES FOR THIS CONDITION. ADDITIONAL
STORMS WILL BE INITIATED ALONG SFC STATIONARY FRONT WEST OF I-65
DURING THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON AFFECTING INLAND TERMINALS.
OVERNIGHT...ANOTHER FRONTAL ZONE MOVES INTO REGION FROM THE NORTH.
CIGS MAY FALL AOB MVFR CONDITIONS BY 16.06 UTC WITH OCNL RESTRICTIONS
IN VSBYS DUE TO LIGHT FOG (ESPECIALLY ALONG COAST TAFS) DOWN TO MVFR
AS WELL. THIS ENDURES UNTIL ABOUT 16.13 UTC LOCALLY. AFTER 16.15
UTC...REGION WIDE CONDITIONS MAINLY VFR UNTIL SCT-NMRS SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AFTER THAT TIME. THIS WILL CREATE
AREAS OF MVFR CONDITION DUE TO CIGS INVOF COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED OCNL
IFR DUE TO VSBYS IN STRONGER DOWNPOURS. /23 JMM

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 953 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

UPDATE...ON THE LARGE SCALE A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS OVER THE
AREA. ALTHOUGH AN ELONGATED DEEPLY REFLECTED LARGE SCALE RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM SOUTH TEXAS TO THE FAR SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC...GEOPOTENTIAL
HEIGHTS SLOWLY FALL TODAY AS THE BASE OF A LARGE SCALE TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY ERODES THE AMPLITUDE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
RIDGE. AS THE INVERTED TROUGH AXIS IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE CONTINUES
MOVING WESTWARD...WE BECOME EVEN MORE ON THE MOIST SIDE (OR EAST
SIDE) WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS ENHANCED. THE LOCAL ATMOSPHERE
IS NOT CAPPED AND WITH AMPLE MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE AND MLCAPES
APPROACHING 2550 J/KG ALREADY SE OF I-65 WE WILL SEE HIGHER END SCT-
LIKELY RAIN CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW 45 MPH
WIND GUSTS WITH MORE INTENSE DEEP CONVECTION..

CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS (1) AN EXTENSIVE LOW LEVEL CLOUD
SHIELD JUST NORTHEAST OF OUR CWFA WHICH IS ERODING TO THE NORTHEAST
(2) SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS (3) GOOD HEATING IN THE ABSENCE OF CLOUDS ALONG THE BEACHES
WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR SEA-BREEZE ENHANCEMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

IN THE NEAR-TERM...EXPECT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO FILL IN
THROUGH MIDDAY...MOVING GENERALLY TO THE NORTH 10 TO 15 MPH. ALL
GRIDS LOOKED ON TRACK SO WILL HOLD ON ANY UPDATES THERE. BEST COVERAGE
EAST OF I-65 AND MORE LINEAR CONVECTION MAY FIRE ALONG STATIONARY
FRONT AND GIVE ANOTHER ROUND TO AREAS EAST OF I-65 LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON.

WE ARE LOOKING INTO POSSIBLE UPGRADING THE RIP CURRENT RISK TO HIGH
EAST OF MOBILE BAY. POSSIBLE UPGRADE INT HE WORKS. / 23 JMM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      90  73  88  70  90 /  50  30  60  30  20
PENSACOLA   89  75  88  73  90 /  60  40  60  30  20
DESTIN      89  76  88  74  89 /  60  40  60  40  20
EVERGREEN   91  70  89  67  89 /  60  40  60  20  10
WAYNESBORO  91  70  88  67  89 /  30  20  50  20  10
CAMDEN      91  70  90  67  89 /  30  30  40  20  10
CRESTVIEW   91  71  88  68  90 /  60  40  60  30  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMOB 151739 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1239 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.AVIATION...[15.12 UTC TAF CYCLE]...THUNDERSTORMS MOST NUMEROUS ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-10 CORRIDOR THROUGH 15.21-23 UTC TIME FRAME. WILL
MAINTAIN TEMPO GROUP AT COASTAL SITES FOR THIS CONDITION. ADDITIONAL
STORMS WILL BE INITIATED ALONG SFC STATIONARY FRONT WEST OF I-65
DURING THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON AFFECTING INLAND TERMINALS.
OVERNIGHT...ANOTHER FRONTAL ZONE MOVES INTO REGION FROM THE NORTH.
CIGS MAY FALL AOB MVFR CONDITIONS BY 16.06 UTC WITH OCNL RESTRICTIONS
IN VSBYS DUE TO LIGHT FOG (ESPECIALLY ALONG COAST TAFS) DOWN TO MVFR
AS WELL. THIS ENDURES UNTIL ABOUT 16.13 UTC LOCALLY. AFTER 16.15
UTC...REGION WIDE CONDITIONS MAINLY VFR UNTIL SCT-NMRS SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AFTER THAT TIME. THIS WILL CREATE
AREAS OF MVFR CONDITION DUE TO CIGS INVOF COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED OCNL
IFR DUE TO VSBYS IN STRONGER DOWNPOURS. /23 JMM

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 953 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

UPDATE...ON THE LARGE SCALE A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS OVER THE
AREA. ALTHOUGH AN ELONGATED DEEPLY REFLECTED LARGE SCALE RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM SOUTH TEXAS TO THE FAR SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC...GEOPOTENTIAL
HEIGHTS SLOWLY FALL TODAY AS THE BASE OF A LARGE SCALE TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY ERODES THE AMPLITUDE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
RIDGE. AS THE INVERTED TROUGH AXIS IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE CONTINUES
MOVING WESTWARD...WE BECOME EVEN MORE ON THE MOIST SIDE (OR EAST
SIDE) WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS ENHANCED. THE LOCAL ATMOSPHERE
IS NOT CAPPED AND WITH AMPLE MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE AND MLCAPES
APPROACHING 2550 J/KG ALREADY SE OF I-65 WE WILL SEE HIGHER END SCT-
LIKELY RAIN CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW 45 MPH
WIND GUSTS WITH MORE INTENSE DEEP CONVECTION..

CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS (1) AN EXTENSIVE LOW LEVEL CLOUD
SHIELD JUST NORTHEAST OF OUR CWFA WHICH IS ERODING TO THE NORTHEAST
(2) SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS (3) GOOD HEATING IN THE ABSENCE OF CLOUDS ALONG THE BEACHES
WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR SEA-BREEZE ENHANCEMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

IN THE NEAR-TERM...EXPECT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO FILL IN
THROUGH MIDDAY...MOVING GENERALLY TO THE NORTH 10 TO 15 MPH. ALL
GRIDS LOOKED ON TRACK SO WILL HOLD ON ANY UPDATES THERE. BEST COVERAGE
EAST OF I-65 AND MORE LINEAR CONVECTION MAY FIRE ALONG STATIONARY
FRONT AND GIVE ANOTHER ROUND TO AREAS EAST OF I-65 LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON.

WE ARE LOOKING INTO POSSIBLE UPGRADING THE RIP CURRENT RISK TO HIGH
EAST OF MOBILE BAY. POSSIBLE UPGRADE INT HE WORKS. / 23 JMM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      90  73  88  70  90 /  50  30  60  30  20
PENSACOLA   89  75  88  73  90 /  60  40  60  30  20
DESTIN      89  76  88  74  89 /  60  40  60  40  20
EVERGREEN   91  70  89  67  89 /  60  40  60  20  10
WAYNESBORO  91  70  88  67  89 /  30  20  50  20  10
CAMDEN      91  70  90  67  89 /  30  30  40  20  10
CRESTVIEW   91  71  88  68  90 /  60  40  60  30  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KMOB 151453 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
953 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.UPDATE...ON THE LARGE SCALE A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS OVER THE
AREA. ALTHOUGH AN ELONGATED DEEPLY REFLECTED LARGE SCALE RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM SOUTH TEXAS TO THE FAR SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC...GEOPOTENTIAL
HEIGHTS SLOWLY FALL TODAY AS THE BASE OF A LARGE SCALE TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY ERODES THE AMPLITUDE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
RIDGE. AS THE INVERTED TROUGH AXIS IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE CONTINUES
MOVING WESTWARD...WE BECOME EVEN MORE ON THE MOIST SIDE (OR EAST
SIDE) WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS ENHANCED. THE LOCAL ATMOSPHERE
IS NOT CAPPED AND WITH AMPLE MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE AND MLCAPES
APPROACHING 2550 J/KG ALREADY SE OF I-65 WE WILL SEE HIGHER END SCT-
LIKELY RAIN CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW 45 MPH
WIND GUSTS WITH MORE INTENSE DEEP CONVECTION..

CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS (1) AN EXTENSIVE LOW LEVEL CLOUD
SHIELD JUST NORTHEAST OF OUR CWFA WHICH IS ERODING TO THE NORTHEAST
(2) SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS (3) GOOD HEATING IN THE ABSENCE OF CLOUDS ALONG THE BEACHES
WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR SEA-BREEZE ENHANCEMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

IN THE NEAR-TERM...EXPECT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO FILL IN
THROUGH MIDDAY...MOVING GENERALLY TO THE NORTH 10 TO 15 MPH. ALL
GRIDS LOOKED ON TRACK SO WILL HOLD ON ANY UPDATES THERE. BEST COVERAGE
EAST OF I-65 AND MORE LINEAR CONVECTION MAY FIRE ALONG STATIONARY
FRONT AND GIVE ANOTHER ROUND TO AREAS EAST OF I-65 LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON.

WE ARE LOOKING INTO POSSIBLE UPGRADING THE RIP CURRENT RISK TO HIGH
EAST OF MOBILE BAY. POSSIBLE UPGRADE INT HE WORKS. / 23 JMM

&&


.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KMOB 151453 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
953 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.UPDATE...ON THE LARGE SCALE A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS OVER THE
AREA. ALTHOUGH AN ELONGATED DEEPLY REFLECTED LARGE SCALE RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM SOUTH TEXAS TO THE FAR SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC...GEOPOTENTIAL
HEIGHTS SLOWLY FALL TODAY AS THE BASE OF A LARGE SCALE TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY ERODES THE AMPLITUDE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
RIDGE. AS THE INVERTED TROUGH AXIS IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE CONTINUES
MOVING WESTWARD...WE BECOME EVEN MORE ON THE MOIST SIDE (OR EAST
SIDE) WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS ENHANCED. THE LOCAL ATMOSPHERE
IS NOT CAPPED AND WITH AMPLE MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE AND MLCAPES
APPROACHING 2550 J/KG ALREADY SE OF I-65 WE WILL SEE HIGHER END SCT-
LIKELY RAIN CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW 45 MPH
WIND GUSTS WITH MORE INTENSE DEEP CONVECTION..

CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS (1) AN EXTENSIVE LOW LEVEL CLOUD
SHIELD JUST NORTHEAST OF OUR CWFA WHICH IS ERODING TO THE NORTHEAST
(2) SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS (3) GOOD HEATING IN THE ABSENCE OF CLOUDS ALONG THE BEACHES
WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR SEA-BREEZE ENHANCEMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

IN THE NEAR-TERM...EXPECT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO FILL IN
THROUGH MIDDAY...MOVING GENERALLY TO THE NORTH 10 TO 15 MPH. ALL
GRIDS LOOKED ON TRACK SO WILL HOLD ON ANY UPDATES THERE. BEST COVERAGE
EAST OF I-65 AND MORE LINEAR CONVECTION MAY FIRE ALONG STATIONARY
FRONT AND GIVE ANOTHER ROUND TO AREAS EAST OF I-65 LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON.

WE ARE LOOKING INTO POSSIBLE UPGRADING THE RIP CURRENT RISK TO HIGH
EAST OF MOBILE BAY. POSSIBLE UPGRADE INT HE WORKS. / 23 JMM

&&


.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMOB 151224 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
724 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.MARINE...HAVE UPDATED MARINE PACKAGE THIS MORNING TO REFLECT HIGHER
NORTHEAST FLOW OVER MOBILE BAY DUE TO DRAINAGE. HEADLINED SMALL CRAFT
EXERCISE CAUTION FOR OCCASIONAL GUSTS APPROACHING 20 KNOTS THIS
MORNING. /10

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 639 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

AVIATION [15.12Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF ISSUANCE]...ALREADY SEEING A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN SHRA COVERAGE OVER THE GULF WATERS. A FEW -SHRA
ANTICIPATED THIS MORNING ALONG THE COAST...TRACK TO THE WEST
NORTHWEST. STORMS IN THE VICINITY POSSIBLE BY AND AFTER 18Z. WILL
MAINTAIN A TEMPO GROUP FROM 19-23Z FOR TSRA. CIGS/VSBY COULD LOWER TO
MVFR/POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS IN STRONGER CONVECTION. VARIABLE/STRONG
WIND GUSTS ALSO A HAZARD TO APPROACHES AND POSSIBLE DELAYS FOR
DEPARTURES DURING THE AFTERNOON. /10

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...WEATHER MAPS THIS MORNING INDICATE
THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS...WHICH HOLDS FROM EASTERN TEXAS TO OFF THE SOUTHEAST US COAST.
UNDER THE HIGH LEVEL RIDGE...A QUASI-STATIONARY SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WAS DRAPED FROM OFF THE SOUTHEAST US COAST...WEST ACROSS
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA...THEN DOWN ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF.
FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...AN UPPER LOW WAS TRANSLATING WESTWARD OVER THE
SOUTHWEST GULF. THE FLOW AROUND THE WESTWARD MOVING UPPER LOW TO THE
SOUTH...CONVERGING WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
HAS RESULTED IN ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING GENERALLY NORTHWEST OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS. ANTICIPATING GENERALLY THE SAME IN FORECAST SENSIBLE
WEATHER ELEMENTS IN THE NEAR TERM. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS THIS MORNING FORECAST TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE DURING THE
COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON AS A DEEPLY MOIST ENVIRONMENT BECOMES MORE
UNSTABLE. FORECASTERS CARRY THE HIGHER PROBABILITIES OF STORMS ALONG
AND SOUTHEAST OF INTERSTATE 65.

RADAR STORM TOTAL PRECIPITATION PRODUCT FROM SUNDAY...VERIFIED FAIRLY
WELL ON PLACEMENT OF THE FORECAST BETTER COVERAGE AND EXPECT
GENERALLY THE SAME TODAY. STRONGER STORM CLUSTERS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
FREQUENT LIGHTNING...EFFICIENT IN DEPOSITING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS...AND BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH. A DIURNAL
DECREASE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE...IS FORECAST TONIGHT.

THE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SEVERAL DEGREES TOO LOW ON DAYTIME
HIGHS...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST ZONES THE LAST COUPLE DAYS.
TEMPERATURE FORECASTS REMAIN A CHALLENGE TODAY...AS ANY EARLIER ONSET
OF THUNDERSTORMS CAN RESULT IN LOWER HIGHS AND LATER ONSET RESULTING
IN HIGHER NUMBERS DUE TO LONGER DURATION OF SUNSHINE BEFORE STORMS
INITIATE. FOR NOW...WILL LEAN TO THE WARMER SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE WITH
TODAY`S HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S COAST TO LOWER 90S INTERIOR. WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW SITES INTO THE MID 90S BEFORE STORMS
GET GOING THIS AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. /10

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS MODERATE.

[TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY]...THE STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WILL MEANDER BACK NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY...
SETTLING JUST NORTH OF THE COASTLINE IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS SURFACE
BOUNDARY WILL THEN PUSH WELL OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT AS A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
MEANWHILE...THE UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
OF MEXICO WILL SHIFT SOUTHWEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A LARGE
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS DIGS FURTHER TOWARD THE SOUTH.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR
THROUGHOUT THE DAY TUESDAY...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND NEAR
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY JUST NORTH OF THE COAST. PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAIN...GUSTY STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH THE STRONGER TUESDAY
AFTERNOONS. ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM ONE-QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 84...AND BETWEEN ONE-QUARTER AND ONE-HALF OF AN INCH
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 84. DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH ON WEDNESDAY...MARKING THE BEGINNING OF A DRY PERIOD.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM 85 TO 90
DEGREES. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 67 TO 72 DEGREES...
EXCEPT FOR THE MID 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. LOWS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 63 TO 70 DEGREES...WITH LOWER 70S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. /22

LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY...AND THEN WEAKEN
AND SHIFT EASTWARD LATE THIS WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. MEANWHILE A RIDGE OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM. THIS WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A DRY PERIOD IS
FORECAST FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY VERY ISOLATED POP-UP
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY.

WITH THE DRIER AIR IN PLACE...THE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL AND THE LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN RAISE TO NEAR NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.
/22

MARINE...STATIONARY SURFACE FRONT FORECAST TO BE DRAPED FROM
LOUISIANA AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST US TODAY...MEANDERS SOUTHWARD TOWARD
THE COAST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN
RESULTS IN WINDS THAT VARY IN DIRECTION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST
BY THE END OF THE WEEK...A PREDOMINANT NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY FLOW
BEGINS TO SET UP BY THE CLOSE OF THE WEEK. SEAS FROM 2 TO 3 FEET
TODAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY BEGIN TO DECREASE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK. SEAS TO TREND HIGHER LATE FRIDAY DUE TO A GRADUAL INCREASE
IN EASTERLY FETCH. SCATTERED...TO AT TIMES NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS
FORECAST THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WITH COVERAGE LOWERING FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. /10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      90  73  88  70  90 /  50  30  60  30  20
PENSACOLA   89  75  88  73  90 /  60  40  60  30  20
DESTIN      89  76  88  74  89 /  60  40  60  40  20
EVERGREEN   91  70  89  67  89 /  60  40  60  20  10
WAYNESBORO  91  70  88  67  89 /  30  20  50  20  10
CAMDEN      91  70  90  67  89 /  30  30  40  20  10
CRESTVIEW   91  71  88  68  90 /  60  40  60  30  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KMOB 151224 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
724 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.MARINE...HAVE UPDATED MARINE PACKAGE THIS MORNING TO REFLECT HIGHER
NORTHEAST FLOW OVER MOBILE BAY DUE TO DRAINAGE. HEADLINED SMALL CRAFT
EXERCISE CAUTION FOR OCCASIONAL GUSTS APPROACHING 20 KNOTS THIS
MORNING. /10

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 639 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

AVIATION [15.12Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF ISSUANCE]...ALREADY SEEING A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN SHRA COVERAGE OVER THE GULF WATERS. A FEW -SHRA
ANTICIPATED THIS MORNING ALONG THE COAST...TRACK TO THE WEST
NORTHWEST. STORMS IN THE VICINITY POSSIBLE BY AND AFTER 18Z. WILL
MAINTAIN A TEMPO GROUP FROM 19-23Z FOR TSRA. CIGS/VSBY COULD LOWER TO
MVFR/POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS IN STRONGER CONVECTION. VARIABLE/STRONG
WIND GUSTS ALSO A HAZARD TO APPROACHES AND POSSIBLE DELAYS FOR
DEPARTURES DURING THE AFTERNOON. /10

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...WEATHER MAPS THIS MORNING INDICATE
THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS...WHICH HOLDS FROM EASTERN TEXAS TO OFF THE SOUTHEAST US COAST.
UNDER THE HIGH LEVEL RIDGE...A QUASI-STATIONARY SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WAS DRAPED FROM OFF THE SOUTHEAST US COAST...WEST ACROSS
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA...THEN DOWN ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF.
FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...AN UPPER LOW WAS TRANSLATING WESTWARD OVER THE
SOUTHWEST GULF. THE FLOW AROUND THE WESTWARD MOVING UPPER LOW TO THE
SOUTH...CONVERGING WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
HAS RESULTED IN ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING GENERALLY NORTHWEST OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS. ANTICIPATING GENERALLY THE SAME IN FORECAST SENSIBLE
WEATHER ELEMENTS IN THE NEAR TERM. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS THIS MORNING FORECAST TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE DURING THE
COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON AS A DEEPLY MOIST ENVIRONMENT BECOMES MORE
UNSTABLE. FORECASTERS CARRY THE HIGHER PROBABILITIES OF STORMS ALONG
AND SOUTHEAST OF INTERSTATE 65.

RADAR STORM TOTAL PRECIPITATION PRODUCT FROM SUNDAY...VERIFIED FAIRLY
WELL ON PLACEMENT OF THE FORECAST BETTER COVERAGE AND EXPECT
GENERALLY THE SAME TODAY. STRONGER STORM CLUSTERS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
FREQUENT LIGHTNING...EFFICIENT IN DEPOSITING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS...AND BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH. A DIURNAL
DECREASE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE...IS FORECAST TONIGHT.

THE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SEVERAL DEGREES TOO LOW ON DAYTIME
HIGHS...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST ZONES THE LAST COUPLE DAYS.
TEMPERATURE FORECASTS REMAIN A CHALLENGE TODAY...AS ANY EARLIER ONSET
OF THUNDERSTORMS CAN RESULT IN LOWER HIGHS AND LATER ONSET RESULTING
IN HIGHER NUMBERS DUE TO LONGER DURATION OF SUNSHINE BEFORE STORMS
INITIATE. FOR NOW...WILL LEAN TO THE WARMER SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE WITH
TODAY`S HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S COAST TO LOWER 90S INTERIOR. WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW SITES INTO THE MID 90S BEFORE STORMS
GET GOING THIS AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. /10

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS MODERATE.

[TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY]...THE STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WILL MEANDER BACK NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY...
SETTLING JUST NORTH OF THE COASTLINE IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS SURFACE
BOUNDARY WILL THEN PUSH WELL OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT AS A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
MEANWHILE...THE UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
OF MEXICO WILL SHIFT SOUTHWEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A LARGE
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS DIGS FURTHER TOWARD THE SOUTH.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR
THROUGHOUT THE DAY TUESDAY...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND NEAR
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY JUST NORTH OF THE COAST. PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAIN...GUSTY STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH THE STRONGER TUESDAY
AFTERNOONS. ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM ONE-QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 84...AND BETWEEN ONE-QUARTER AND ONE-HALF OF AN INCH
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 84. DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH ON WEDNESDAY...MARKING THE BEGINNING OF A DRY PERIOD.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM 85 TO 90
DEGREES. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 67 TO 72 DEGREES...
EXCEPT FOR THE MID 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. LOWS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 63 TO 70 DEGREES...WITH LOWER 70S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. /22

LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY...AND THEN WEAKEN
AND SHIFT EASTWARD LATE THIS WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. MEANWHILE A RIDGE OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM. THIS WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A DRY PERIOD IS
FORECAST FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY VERY ISOLATED POP-UP
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY.

WITH THE DRIER AIR IN PLACE...THE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL AND THE LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN RAISE TO NEAR NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.
/22

MARINE...STATIONARY SURFACE FRONT FORECAST TO BE DRAPED FROM
LOUISIANA AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST US TODAY...MEANDERS SOUTHWARD TOWARD
THE COAST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN
RESULTS IN WINDS THAT VARY IN DIRECTION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST
BY THE END OF THE WEEK...A PREDOMINANT NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY FLOW
BEGINS TO SET UP BY THE CLOSE OF THE WEEK. SEAS FROM 2 TO 3 FEET
TODAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY BEGIN TO DECREASE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK. SEAS TO TREND HIGHER LATE FRIDAY DUE TO A GRADUAL INCREASE
IN EASTERLY FETCH. SCATTERED...TO AT TIMES NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS
FORECAST THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WITH COVERAGE LOWERING FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. /10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      90  73  88  70  90 /  50  30  60  30  20
PENSACOLA   89  75  88  73  90 /  60  40  60  30  20
DESTIN      89  76  88  74  89 /  60  40  60  40  20
EVERGREEN   91  70  89  67  89 /  60  40  60  20  10
WAYNESBORO  91  70  88  67  89 /  30  20  50  20  10
CAMDEN      91  70  90  67  89 /  30  30  40  20  10
CRESTVIEW   91  71  88  68  90 /  60  40  60  30  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMOB 151139 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
639 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.AVIATION [15.12Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF ISSUANCE]...ALREADY SEEING A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN SHRA COVERAGE OVER THE GULF WATERS. A FEW -SHRA
ANTICIPATED THIS MORNING ALONG THE COAST...TRACK TO THE WEST
NORTHWEST. STORMS IN THE VICINITY POSSIBLE BY AND AFTER 18Z. WILL
MAINTAIN A TEMPO GROUP FROM 19-23Z FOR TSRA. CIGS/VSBY COULD LOWER TO
MVFR/POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS IN STRONGER CONVECTION. VARIABLE/STRONG
WIND GUSTS ALSO A HAZARD TO APPROACHES AND POSSIBLE DELAYS FOR
DEPARTURES DURING THE AFTERNOON. /10

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...WEATHER MAPS THIS MORNING INDICATE
THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS...WHICH HOLDS FROM EASTERN TEXAS TO OFF THE SOUTHEAST US COAST.
UNDER THE HIGH LEVEL RIDGE...A QUASI-STATIONARY SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WAS DRAPED FROM OFF THE SOUTHEAST US COAST...WEST ACROSS
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA...THEN DOWN ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF.
FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...AN UPPER LOW WAS TRANSLATING WESTWARD OVER THE
SOUTHWEST GULF. THE FLOW AROUND THE WESTWARD MOVING UPPER LOW TO THE
SOUTH...CONVERGING WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
HAS RESULTED IN ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING GENERALLY NORTHWEST OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS. ANTICIPATING GENERALLY THE SAME IN FORECAST SENSIBLE
WEATHER ELEMENTS IN THE NEAR TERM. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS THIS MORNING FORECAST TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE DURING THE
COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON AS A DEEPLY MOIST ENVIRONMENT BECOMES MORE
UNSTABLE. FORECASTERS CARRY THE HIGHER PROBABILITIES OF STORMS ALONG
AND SOUTHEAST OF INTERSTATE 65.

RADAR STORM TOTAL PRECIPITATION PRODUCT FROM SUNDAY...VERIFIED FAIRLY
WELL ON PLACEMENT OF THE FORECAST BETTER COVERAGE AND EXPECT
GENERALLY THE SAME TODAY. STRONGER STORM CLUSTERS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
FREQUENT LIGHTNING...EFFICIENT IN DEPOSITING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS...AND BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH. A DIURNAL
DECREASE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE...IS FORECAST TONIGHT.

THE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SEVERAL DEGREES TOO LOW ON DAYTIME
HIGHS...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST ZONES THE LAST COUPLE DAYS.
TEMPERATURE FORECASTS REMAIN A CHALLENGE TODAY...AS ANY EARLIER ONSET
OF THUNDERSTORMS CAN RESULT IN LOWER HIGHS AND LATER ONSET RESULTING
IN HIGHER NUMBERS DUE TO LONGER DURATION OF SUNSHINE BEFORE STORMS
INITIATE. FOR NOW...WILL LEAN TO THE WARMER SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE WITH
TODAY`S HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S COAST TO LOWER 90S INTERIOR. WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW SITES INTO THE MID 90S BEFORE STORMS
GET GOING THIS AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. /10

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS MODERATE.

[TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY]...THE STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WILL MEANDER BACK NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY...
SETTLING JUST NORTH OF THE COASTLINE IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS SURFACE
BOUNDARY WILL THEN PUSH WELL OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT AS A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
MEANWHILE...THE UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
OF MEXICO WILL SHIFT SOUTHWEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A LARGE
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS DIGS FURTHER TOWARD THE SOUTH.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR
THROUGHOUT THE DAY TUESDAY...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND NEAR
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY JUST NORTH OF THE COAST. PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAIN...GUSTY STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH THE STRONGER TUESDAY
AFTERNOONS. ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM ONE-QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 84...AND BETWEEN ONE-QUARTER AND ONE-HALF OF AN INCH
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 84. DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH ON WEDNESDAY...MARKING THE BEGINNING OF A DRY PERIOD.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM 85 TO 90
DEGREES. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 67 TO 72 DEGREES...
EXCEPT FOR THE MID 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. LOWS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 63 TO 70 DEGREES...WITH LOWER 70S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. /22

LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY...AND THEN WEAKEN
AND SHIFT EASTWARD LATE THIS WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. MEANWHILE A RIDGE OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM. THIS WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A DRY PERIOD IS
FORECAST FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY VERY ISOLATED POP-UP
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY.

WITH THE DRIER AIR IN PLACE...THE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL AND THE LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN RAISE TO NEAR NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.
/22

MARINE...STATIONARY SURFACE FRONT FORECAST TO BE DRAPED FROM
LOUISIANA AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST US TODAY...MEANDERS SOUTHWARD TOWARD
THE COAST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN
RESULTS IN WINDS THAT VARY IN DIRECTION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST
BY THE END OF THE WEEK...A PREDOMINANT NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY FLOW
BEGINS TO SET UP BY THE CLOSE OF THE WEEK. SEAS FROM 2 TO 3 FEET
TODAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY BEGIN TO DECREASE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK. SEAS TO TREND HIGHER LATE FRIDAY DUE TO A GRADUAL INCREASE
IN EASTERLY FETCH. SCATTERED...TO AT TIMES NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS
FORECAST THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WITH COVERAGE LOWERING FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. /10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      90  73  88  70  90 /  50  30  60  30  20
PENSACOLA   89  75  88  73  90 /  60  40  60  30  20
DESTIN      89  76  88  74  89 /  60  40  60  40  20
EVERGREEN   91  70  89  67  89 /  60  40  60  20  10
WAYNESBORO  91  70  88  67  89 /  30  20  50  20  10
CAMDEN      91  70  90  67  89 /  30  30  40  20  10
CRESTVIEW   91  71  88  68  90 /  60  40  60  30  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMOB 151139 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
639 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.AVIATION [15.12Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF ISSUANCE]...ALREADY SEEING A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN SHRA COVERAGE OVER THE GULF WATERS. A FEW -SHRA
ANTICIPATED THIS MORNING ALONG THE COAST...TRACK TO THE WEST
NORTHWEST. STORMS IN THE VICINITY POSSIBLE BY AND AFTER 18Z. WILL
MAINTAIN A TEMPO GROUP FROM 19-23Z FOR TSRA. CIGS/VSBY COULD LOWER TO
MVFR/POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS IN STRONGER CONVECTION. VARIABLE/STRONG
WIND GUSTS ALSO A HAZARD TO APPROACHES AND POSSIBLE DELAYS FOR
DEPARTURES DURING THE AFTERNOON. /10

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...WEATHER MAPS THIS MORNING INDICATE
THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS...WHICH HOLDS FROM EASTERN TEXAS TO OFF THE SOUTHEAST US COAST.
UNDER THE HIGH LEVEL RIDGE...A QUASI-STATIONARY SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WAS DRAPED FROM OFF THE SOUTHEAST US COAST...WEST ACROSS
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA...THEN DOWN ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF.
FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...AN UPPER LOW WAS TRANSLATING WESTWARD OVER THE
SOUTHWEST GULF. THE FLOW AROUND THE WESTWARD MOVING UPPER LOW TO THE
SOUTH...CONVERGING WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
HAS RESULTED IN ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING GENERALLY NORTHWEST OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS. ANTICIPATING GENERALLY THE SAME IN FORECAST SENSIBLE
WEATHER ELEMENTS IN THE NEAR TERM. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS THIS MORNING FORECAST TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE DURING THE
COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON AS A DEEPLY MOIST ENVIRONMENT BECOMES MORE
UNSTABLE. FORECASTERS CARRY THE HIGHER PROBABILITIES OF STORMS ALONG
AND SOUTHEAST OF INTERSTATE 65.

RADAR STORM TOTAL PRECIPITATION PRODUCT FROM SUNDAY...VERIFIED FAIRLY
WELL ON PLACEMENT OF THE FORECAST BETTER COVERAGE AND EXPECT
GENERALLY THE SAME TODAY. STRONGER STORM CLUSTERS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
FREQUENT LIGHTNING...EFFICIENT IN DEPOSITING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS...AND BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH. A DIURNAL
DECREASE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE...IS FORECAST TONIGHT.

THE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SEVERAL DEGREES TOO LOW ON DAYTIME
HIGHS...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST ZONES THE LAST COUPLE DAYS.
TEMPERATURE FORECASTS REMAIN A CHALLENGE TODAY...AS ANY EARLIER ONSET
OF THUNDERSTORMS CAN RESULT IN LOWER HIGHS AND LATER ONSET RESULTING
IN HIGHER NUMBERS DUE TO LONGER DURATION OF SUNSHINE BEFORE STORMS
INITIATE. FOR NOW...WILL LEAN TO THE WARMER SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE WITH
TODAY`S HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S COAST TO LOWER 90S INTERIOR. WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW SITES INTO THE MID 90S BEFORE STORMS
GET GOING THIS AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. /10

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS MODERATE.

[TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY]...THE STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WILL MEANDER BACK NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY...
SETTLING JUST NORTH OF THE COASTLINE IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS SURFACE
BOUNDARY WILL THEN PUSH WELL OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT AS A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
MEANWHILE...THE UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
OF MEXICO WILL SHIFT SOUTHWEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A LARGE
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS DIGS FURTHER TOWARD THE SOUTH.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR
THROUGHOUT THE DAY TUESDAY...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND NEAR
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY JUST NORTH OF THE COAST. PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAIN...GUSTY STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH THE STRONGER TUESDAY
AFTERNOONS. ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM ONE-QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 84...AND BETWEEN ONE-QUARTER AND ONE-HALF OF AN INCH
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 84. DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH ON WEDNESDAY...MARKING THE BEGINNING OF A DRY PERIOD.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM 85 TO 90
DEGREES. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 67 TO 72 DEGREES...
EXCEPT FOR THE MID 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. LOWS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 63 TO 70 DEGREES...WITH LOWER 70S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. /22

LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY...AND THEN WEAKEN
AND SHIFT EASTWARD LATE THIS WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. MEANWHILE A RIDGE OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM. THIS WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A DRY PERIOD IS
FORECAST FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY VERY ISOLATED POP-UP
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY.

WITH THE DRIER AIR IN PLACE...THE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL AND THE LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN RAISE TO NEAR NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.
/22

MARINE...STATIONARY SURFACE FRONT FORECAST TO BE DRAPED FROM
LOUISIANA AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST US TODAY...MEANDERS SOUTHWARD TOWARD
THE COAST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN
RESULTS IN WINDS THAT VARY IN DIRECTION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST
BY THE END OF THE WEEK...A PREDOMINANT NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY FLOW
BEGINS TO SET UP BY THE CLOSE OF THE WEEK. SEAS FROM 2 TO 3 FEET
TODAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY BEGIN TO DECREASE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK. SEAS TO TREND HIGHER LATE FRIDAY DUE TO A GRADUAL INCREASE
IN EASTERLY FETCH. SCATTERED...TO AT TIMES NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS
FORECAST THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WITH COVERAGE LOWERING FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. /10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      90  73  88  70  90 /  50  30  60  30  20
PENSACOLA   89  75  88  73  90 /  60  40  60  30  20
DESTIN      89  76  88  74  89 /  60  40  60  40  20
EVERGREEN   91  70  89  67  89 /  60  40  60  20  10
WAYNESBORO  91  70  88  67  89 /  30  20  50  20  10
CAMDEN      91  70  90  67  89 /  30  30  40  20  10
CRESTVIEW   91  71  88  68  90 /  60  40  60  30  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KMOB 150937
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
430 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...WEATHER MAPS THIS MORNING INDICATE
THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS...WHICH HOLDS FROM EASTERN TEXAS TO OFF THE SOUTHEAST US COAST.
UNDER THE HIGH LEVEL RIDGE...A QUASI-STATIONARY SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WAS DRAPED FROM OFF THE SOUTHEAST US COAST...WEST ACROSS
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA...THEN DOWN ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF.
FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...AN UPPER LOW WAS TRANSLATING WESTWARD OVER THE
SOUTHWEST GULF. THE FLOW AROUND THE WESTWARD MOVING UPPER LOW TO THE
SOUTH...CONVERGING WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
HAS RESULTED IN ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING GENERALLY NORTHWEST OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS. ANTICIPATING GENERALLY THE SAME IN FORECAST SENSIBLE
WEATHER ELEMENTS IN THE NEAR TERM. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS THIS MORNING FORECAST TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE DURING THE
COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON AS A DEEPLY MOIST ENVIRONMENT BECOMES MORE
UNSTABLE. FORECASTERS CARRY THE HIGHER PROBABILITIES OF STORMS ALONG
AND SOUTHEAST OF INTERSTATE 65.

RADAR STORM TOTAL PRECIPITATION PRODUCT FROM SUNDAY...VERIFIED FAIRLY
WELL ON PLACEMENT OF THE FORECAST BETTER COVERAGE AND EXPECT
GENERALLY THE SAME TODAY. STRONGER STORM CLUSTERS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
FREQUENT LIGHTNING...EFFICIENT IN DEPOSITING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS...AND BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH. A DIURNAL
DECREASE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE...IS FORECAST TONIGHT.

THE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SEVERAL DEGREES TOO LOW ON DAYTIME
HIGHS...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST ZONES THE LAST COUPLE DAYS.
TEMPERATURE FORECASTS REMAIN A CHALLENGE TODAY...AS ANY EARLIER ONSET
OF THUNDERSTORMS CAN RESULT IN LOWER HIGHS AND LATER ONSET RESULTING
IN HIGHER NUMBERS DUE TO LONGER DURATION OF SUNSHINE BEFORE STORMS
INITIATE. FOR NOW...WILL LEAN TO THE WARMER SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE WITH
TODAY`S HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S COAST TO LOWER 90S INTERIOR. WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW SITES INTO THE MID 90S BEFORE STORMS
GET GOING THIS AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. /10

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS MODERATE.

[TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY]...THE STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WILL MEANDER BACK NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY...
SETTLING JUST NORTH OF THE COASTLINE IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS SURFACE
BOUNDARY WILL THEN PUSH WELL OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT AS A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
MEANWHILE...THE UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
OF MEXICO WILL SHIFT SOUTHWEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A LARGE
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS DIGS FURTHER TOWARD THE SOUTH.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR
THROUGHOUT THE DAY TUESDAY...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND NEAR
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY JUST NORTH OF THE COAST. PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAIN...GUSTY STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH THE STRONGER TUESDAY
AFTERNOONS. ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM ONE-QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 84...AND BETWEEN ONE-QUARTER AND ONE-HALF OF AN INCH
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 84. DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH ON WEDNESDAY...MARKING THE BEGINNING OF A DRY PERIOD.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM 85 TO 90
DEGREES. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 67 TO 72 DEGREES...
EXCEPT FOR THE MID 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. LOWS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 63 TO 70 DEGREES...WITH LOWER 70S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. /22

.LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY...AND THEN WEAKEN
AND SHIFT EASTWARD LATE THIS WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. MEANWHILE A RIDGE OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM. THIS WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A DRY PERIOD IS
FORECAST FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY VERY ISOLATED POP-UP
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY.

WITH THE DRIER AIR IN PLACE...THE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL AND THE LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN RAISE TO NEAR NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.
/22

&&

.AVIATION [15.12Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF ISSUANCE]...A FEW -SHRA
ANTICIPATED THIS MORNING ALONG THE COAST...TRACK TO THE WEST
NORTHWEST. STORMS IN THE VICINITY POSSIBLE BY AND AFTER 18Z. WILL
MAINTAIN A TEMPO GROUP FROM 19-23Z FOR TSRA. CIGS/VSBY COULD LOWER TO
MVFR/POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS IN STRONGER CONVECTION. VARIABLE/STRONG
WIND GUSTS ALSO A HAZARD TO APPROACHES AND POSSIBLE DELAYS FOR
DEPARTURES DURING THE AFTERNOON. /10

&&

.MARINE...STATIONARY SURFACE FRONT FORECAST TO BE DRAPED FROM
LOUISIANA AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST US TODAY...MEANDERS SOUTHWARD TOWARD
THE COAST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN
RESULTS IN WINDS THAT VARY IN DIRECTION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST
BY THE END OF THE WEEK...A PREDOMINANT NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY FLOW
BEGINS TO SET UP BY THE CLOSE OF THE WEEK. SEAS FROM 2 TO 3 FEET
TODAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY BEGIN TO DECREASE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK. SEAS TO TREND HIGHER LATE FRIDAY DUE TO A GRADUAL INCREASE
IN EASTERLY FETCH. SCATTERED...TO AT TIMES NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS
FORECAST THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WITH COVERAGE LOWERING FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. /10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      90  73  88  70  90 /  50  30  60  30  20
PENSACOLA   89  75  88  73  90 /  60  40  60  30  20
DESTIN      89  76  88  74  89 /  60  40  60  40  20
EVERGREEN   91  70  89  67  89 /  60  40  60  20  10
WAYNESBORO  91  70  88  67  89 /  30  20  50  20  10
CAMDEN      91  70  90  67  89 /  30  30  40  20  10
CRESTVIEW   91  71  88  68  90 /  60  40  60  30  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMOB 150937
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
430 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...WEATHER MAPS THIS MORNING INDICATE
THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS...WHICH HOLDS FROM EASTERN TEXAS TO OFF THE SOUTHEAST US COAST.
UNDER THE HIGH LEVEL RIDGE...A QUASI-STATIONARY SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WAS DRAPED FROM OFF THE SOUTHEAST US COAST...WEST ACROSS
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA...THEN DOWN ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF.
FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...AN UPPER LOW WAS TRANSLATING WESTWARD OVER THE
SOUTHWEST GULF. THE FLOW AROUND THE WESTWARD MOVING UPPER LOW TO THE
SOUTH...CONVERGING WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
HAS RESULTED IN ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING GENERALLY NORTHWEST OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS. ANTICIPATING GENERALLY THE SAME IN FORECAST SENSIBLE
WEATHER ELEMENTS IN THE NEAR TERM. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS THIS MORNING FORECAST TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE DURING THE
COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON AS A DEEPLY MOIST ENVIRONMENT BECOMES MORE
UNSTABLE. FORECASTERS CARRY THE HIGHER PROBABILITIES OF STORMS ALONG
AND SOUTHEAST OF INTERSTATE 65.

RADAR STORM TOTAL PRECIPITATION PRODUCT FROM SUNDAY...VERIFIED FAIRLY
WELL ON PLACEMENT OF THE FORECAST BETTER COVERAGE AND EXPECT
GENERALLY THE SAME TODAY. STRONGER STORM CLUSTERS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
FREQUENT LIGHTNING...EFFICIENT IN DEPOSITING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS...AND BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH. A DIURNAL
DECREASE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE...IS FORECAST TONIGHT.

THE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SEVERAL DEGREES TOO LOW ON DAYTIME
HIGHS...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST ZONES THE LAST COUPLE DAYS.
TEMPERATURE FORECASTS REMAIN A CHALLENGE TODAY...AS ANY EARLIER ONSET
OF THUNDERSTORMS CAN RESULT IN LOWER HIGHS AND LATER ONSET RESULTING
IN HIGHER NUMBERS DUE TO LONGER DURATION OF SUNSHINE BEFORE STORMS
INITIATE. FOR NOW...WILL LEAN TO THE WARMER SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE WITH
TODAY`S HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S COAST TO LOWER 90S INTERIOR. WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW SITES INTO THE MID 90S BEFORE STORMS
GET GOING THIS AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. /10

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS MODERATE.

[TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY]...THE STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WILL MEANDER BACK NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY...
SETTLING JUST NORTH OF THE COASTLINE IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS SURFACE
BOUNDARY WILL THEN PUSH WELL OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT AS A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
MEANWHILE...THE UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
OF MEXICO WILL SHIFT SOUTHWEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A LARGE
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS DIGS FURTHER TOWARD THE SOUTH.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR
THROUGHOUT THE DAY TUESDAY...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND NEAR
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY JUST NORTH OF THE COAST. PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAIN...GUSTY STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH THE STRONGER TUESDAY
AFTERNOONS. ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM ONE-QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 84...AND BETWEEN ONE-QUARTER AND ONE-HALF OF AN INCH
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 84. DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH ON WEDNESDAY...MARKING THE BEGINNING OF A DRY PERIOD.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM 85 TO 90
DEGREES. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 67 TO 72 DEGREES...
EXCEPT FOR THE MID 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. LOWS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 63 TO 70 DEGREES...WITH LOWER 70S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. /22

.LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY...AND THEN WEAKEN
AND SHIFT EASTWARD LATE THIS WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. MEANWHILE A RIDGE OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM. THIS WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A DRY PERIOD IS
FORECAST FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY VERY ISOLATED POP-UP
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY.

WITH THE DRIER AIR IN PLACE...THE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL AND THE LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN RAISE TO NEAR NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.
/22

&&

.AVIATION [15.12Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF ISSUANCE]...A FEW -SHRA
ANTICIPATED THIS MORNING ALONG THE COAST...TRACK TO THE WEST
NORTHWEST. STORMS IN THE VICINITY POSSIBLE BY AND AFTER 18Z. WILL
MAINTAIN A TEMPO GROUP FROM 19-23Z FOR TSRA. CIGS/VSBY COULD LOWER TO
MVFR/POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS IN STRONGER CONVECTION. VARIABLE/STRONG
WIND GUSTS ALSO A HAZARD TO APPROACHES AND POSSIBLE DELAYS FOR
DEPARTURES DURING THE AFTERNOON. /10

&&

.MARINE...STATIONARY SURFACE FRONT FORECAST TO BE DRAPED FROM
LOUISIANA AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST US TODAY...MEANDERS SOUTHWARD TOWARD
THE COAST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN
RESULTS IN WINDS THAT VARY IN DIRECTION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST
BY THE END OF THE WEEK...A PREDOMINANT NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY FLOW
BEGINS TO SET UP BY THE CLOSE OF THE WEEK. SEAS FROM 2 TO 3 FEET
TODAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY BEGIN TO DECREASE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK. SEAS TO TREND HIGHER LATE FRIDAY DUE TO A GRADUAL INCREASE
IN EASTERLY FETCH. SCATTERED...TO AT TIMES NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS
FORECAST THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WITH COVERAGE LOWERING FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. /10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      90  73  88  70  90 /  50  30  60  30  20
PENSACOLA   89  75  88  73  90 /  60  40  60  30  20
DESTIN      89  76  88  74  89 /  60  40  60  40  20
EVERGREEN   91  70  89  67  89 /  60  40  60  20  10
WAYNESBORO  91  70  88  67  89 /  30  20  50  20  10
CAMDEN      91  70  90  67  89 /  30  30  40  20  10
CRESTVIEW   91  71  88  68  90 /  60  40  60  30  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMOB 150507
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1207 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

AVIATION (06Z ISSUANCE)...SIMILAR THINKING AS BEFORE WITH VFR
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT THEN VCSH RETURNING BY 13-15Z MONDAY AND VCTS
BY 18Z.  HAVE STAYED WITH A TEMPO GROUP FROM 19-23Z FOR MVFR
CONDITIONS IN THUNDERSTORMS.  LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY
ON MONDAY. /29

&&

*** PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ***

.UPDATE...THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE NEEDED. REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO
SHOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST MS...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL AL AND THE NORTHWEST FL
PANHANDLE ALONG AND NEAR A WEAK STATIONARY BOUNDARY THAT REMAINS IN
THE VICINITY OF THE REGION. WE WILL MAINTAIN 20-30 PERCENT COVERAGE
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS. ISOLATED CONVECTION
SHOULD THEN MAINLY BECOME FOCUSED OFFSHORE AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MONDAY. /21

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND MONDAY)...SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER COASTAL
SECTIONS OF THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY TONIGHT. A TROPICAL WAVE NOTED IN SFC DATA AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE
MOVING OFF TOWARD THE WEST THROUGH MONDAY. WITH THIS...THE NORTHEAST
TO EAST WIND FLOW OVER THE REGION WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY ON MONDAY...ALLOWING THE SFC BOUNDARY TO LIFT SLOWLY
BACK TO THE NORTH AND INTO THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF MS/AL BY LATE
MONDAY. LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...THE
SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION IS THE PRIMARY DRIVING FORCE BEHIND CONVECTION
AS UPPER RIDGING HAS BUILT OVER THE REGION. ALL SHOWERS AND STORMS
THAT HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON THUS FAR HAVE BEEN GENERALLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR. EXPECT THESE TO MOVE SLIGHTLY FURTHER
INLAND...THEN BEGIN TO DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. ISOLATED
SHRA/TSRA WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVER THE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS
OVERNIGHT. THE SFC BOUNDARY...COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE (PRIMARILY SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY) AND AFTERNOON HEATING
ON MONDAY...WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
STORMS ON TOMORROW AFTERNOON (WITH THE BEST RAIN CHANCES GENERALLY
ALONG AND SOUTH-EAST OF I-65). WITH MUCH OF THE INTERIOR COUNTIES
JUST ON THE COOLER AND DRIER SIDE OF THE FRONT TONIGHT... MIN TEMPS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S IN THOSE LOCATIONS. CLOSER TO THE
COAST AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. MAX
TEMPS ON MONDAY GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA...EXCEPT FOR A NARROW AREA ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF UPPER
80S TO NEAR 90. 12/DS

FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...A STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDING FROM A LOW OVER ONSLOW BAY WILL REMAIN STALLED ALONG THE
I-65 CORRIDOR. THIS WILL PROVIDE CONVECTIVE FORCING OF NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. GFS AND EURO MODELS
INDICATE IT WILL PUSH BACK OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT AND DRIFT BACK TO
THE NORTH TUESDAY TO JUST NORTH OF THE COASTLINE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THEN ON TUESDAY NIGHT IT WILL PUSH BACK SOUTH AGAIN OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF. AT THE SAME TIME AN UPPER LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES. THESE FEATURES WILL HELP MAINTAIN SUFFICIENT
STRENGTH OF FRONTAL VERTICAL CIRCULATIONS TO MAINTAIN SOME SEMBLANCE
OF CONVECTIVE FORCING. NUMERICAL OUTPUTS REGARDING THE THERMODYNAMIC
STATE OF THE ATMOSPHERE INCLUDE CAPE AVERAGING ABOUT 2400 WITH A
MAXIMUM OF 3600 J/KG...LIFTED INDEX -4 INDICATING "NUMEROUS"
THUNDERSTORMS...SIMILAR TO THE MOS NUMBERS BEING BROUGHT IN...AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 2 INCHES. WE MIGHT SEE SOME CELL TRAINING
AND THEREFORE CONSIDER MOS CALCULATIONS OF LIKELY CHANCES OF
MEASURABLE RAIN TO BE SOUND. IT WILL MOST LIKELY BE SHORT PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AS THE MAIN
EFFECTS OF SOME THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AVERAGE RAINFALL
TOTALS WOULD RANGE FROM 0.5 TO 1.0 INCHES PER 24 HOUR PERIOD IN OUR
AREA TUESDAY WITH LOCALLY HIGHER RAINFALL 2 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE IN
ISOLATED LOCATIONS WITHIN THE SAME PERIOD. WHEN WE SEE THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...THE DEWPOINT DEPRESSION AVERAGES 6 TO 7 DEGREES BETWEEN
THE SURFACE AND 500 MB AND THAT TYPE OF ENVIRONMENT WOULD LIKELY NOT
BE A VERY EFFECTIVE RAINMAKER SINCE IT ALLOWS ENTRAINMENT OF AIR THAT
IS TOO LOW A HUMIDITY ON THE CUMULUS SCALE.

HIGHS WILL BE ABOUT 3 DEGREES BELOW THE MEAN TUESDAY...REBOUNDING TO
WITHIN A DEGREE WEDNESDAY. LOWS WILL BE RUNNING ABOUT 2 TO 3 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL MONDAY NIGHT. 77/BD

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...NO CHANGES. THE DEEP UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL PERSIST WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...DAMPENING SOME LATE THIS WEEK. MEANWHILE A SURFACE RIDGE
DOMINATES THE PICTURE OVER EASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM. THIS WOULD BRING CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
AND SKIES AND RAIN FREE CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. HOWEVER BY FRIDAY WE ISOLATED POPCORN TYPE AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING OVER THE WEEKEND.

HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 2 TO 3 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. LOWS WILL BE COOLING TO ABOUT 2 TO 3 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
TUESDAY NIGHT DECREASING TO 6 TO 8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN SOME
INLAND LOCATIONS BY THE WEEKEND. 77/BD

MARINE...STALLED FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE DRAPED OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS THIS EVENING...WHILE A TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF. A GENERAL LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEAST TO
EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE MARINE AREA OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...BECOMING A LITTLE MORE SOUTHEASTERLY AT TIMES NEAR
THE COAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY AS
THE DEPARTING TROPICAL WAVE ALLOWS FOR A SLIGHTLY MORE PREDOMINANT
LARGE SCALE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL
BUILD OVER THE EASTERN GULF BY MID WEEK...WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE
WESTERLY. SEAS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY 2-3 FEET ALL WEEK WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN PREVAILING WIND SPEEDS OVER THE MARINE AREA. ISOLATED TO
OCNLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS...PRIMARILY OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      73  89  71  88  69 /  20  50  40  60  30
PENSACOLA   75  90  74  87  72 /  30  60  40  60  40
DESTIN      79  86  79  86  78 /  30  60  40  60  50
EVERGREEN   69  90  69  87  66 /  20  60  40  50  30
WAYNESBORO  67  90  67  87  66 /  20  30  30  50  20
CAMDEN      68  91  70  87  65 /  20  60  40  50  20
CRESTVIEW   70  91  71  88  69 /  20  60  40  60  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$














000
FXUS64 KMOB 150507
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1207 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

AVIATION (06Z ISSUANCE)...SIMILAR THINKING AS BEFORE WITH VFR
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT THEN VCSH RETURNING BY 13-15Z MONDAY AND VCTS
BY 18Z.  HAVE STAYED WITH A TEMPO GROUP FROM 19-23Z FOR MVFR
CONDITIONS IN THUNDERSTORMS.  LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY
ON MONDAY. /29

&&

*** PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ***

.UPDATE...THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE NEEDED. REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO
SHOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST MS...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL AL AND THE NORTHWEST FL
PANHANDLE ALONG AND NEAR A WEAK STATIONARY BOUNDARY THAT REMAINS IN
THE VICINITY OF THE REGION. WE WILL MAINTAIN 20-30 PERCENT COVERAGE
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS. ISOLATED CONVECTION
SHOULD THEN MAINLY BECOME FOCUSED OFFSHORE AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MONDAY. /21

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND MONDAY)...SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER COASTAL
SECTIONS OF THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY TONIGHT. A TROPICAL WAVE NOTED IN SFC DATA AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE
MOVING OFF TOWARD THE WEST THROUGH MONDAY. WITH THIS...THE NORTHEAST
TO EAST WIND FLOW OVER THE REGION WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY ON MONDAY...ALLOWING THE SFC BOUNDARY TO LIFT SLOWLY
BACK TO THE NORTH AND INTO THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF MS/AL BY LATE
MONDAY. LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...THE
SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION IS THE PRIMARY DRIVING FORCE BEHIND CONVECTION
AS UPPER RIDGING HAS BUILT OVER THE REGION. ALL SHOWERS AND STORMS
THAT HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON THUS FAR HAVE BEEN GENERALLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR. EXPECT THESE TO MOVE SLIGHTLY FURTHER
INLAND...THEN BEGIN TO DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. ISOLATED
SHRA/TSRA WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVER THE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS
OVERNIGHT. THE SFC BOUNDARY...COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE (PRIMARILY SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY) AND AFTERNOON HEATING
ON MONDAY...WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
STORMS ON TOMORROW AFTERNOON (WITH THE BEST RAIN CHANCES GENERALLY
ALONG AND SOUTH-EAST OF I-65). WITH MUCH OF THE INTERIOR COUNTIES
JUST ON THE COOLER AND DRIER SIDE OF THE FRONT TONIGHT... MIN TEMPS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S IN THOSE LOCATIONS. CLOSER TO THE
COAST AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. MAX
TEMPS ON MONDAY GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA...EXCEPT FOR A NARROW AREA ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF UPPER
80S TO NEAR 90. 12/DS

FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...A STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDING FROM A LOW OVER ONSLOW BAY WILL REMAIN STALLED ALONG THE
I-65 CORRIDOR. THIS WILL PROVIDE CONVECTIVE FORCING OF NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. GFS AND EURO MODELS
INDICATE IT WILL PUSH BACK OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT AND DRIFT BACK TO
THE NORTH TUESDAY TO JUST NORTH OF THE COASTLINE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THEN ON TUESDAY NIGHT IT WILL PUSH BACK SOUTH AGAIN OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF. AT THE SAME TIME AN UPPER LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES. THESE FEATURES WILL HELP MAINTAIN SUFFICIENT
STRENGTH OF FRONTAL VERTICAL CIRCULATIONS TO MAINTAIN SOME SEMBLANCE
OF CONVECTIVE FORCING. NUMERICAL OUTPUTS REGARDING THE THERMODYNAMIC
STATE OF THE ATMOSPHERE INCLUDE CAPE AVERAGING ABOUT 2400 WITH A
MAXIMUM OF 3600 J/KG...LIFTED INDEX -4 INDICATING "NUMEROUS"
THUNDERSTORMS...SIMILAR TO THE MOS NUMBERS BEING BROUGHT IN...AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 2 INCHES. WE MIGHT SEE SOME CELL TRAINING
AND THEREFORE CONSIDER MOS CALCULATIONS OF LIKELY CHANCES OF
MEASURABLE RAIN TO BE SOUND. IT WILL MOST LIKELY BE SHORT PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AS THE MAIN
EFFECTS OF SOME THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AVERAGE RAINFALL
TOTALS WOULD RANGE FROM 0.5 TO 1.0 INCHES PER 24 HOUR PERIOD IN OUR
AREA TUESDAY WITH LOCALLY HIGHER RAINFALL 2 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE IN
ISOLATED LOCATIONS WITHIN THE SAME PERIOD. WHEN WE SEE THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...THE DEWPOINT DEPRESSION AVERAGES 6 TO 7 DEGREES BETWEEN
THE SURFACE AND 500 MB AND THAT TYPE OF ENVIRONMENT WOULD LIKELY NOT
BE A VERY EFFECTIVE RAINMAKER SINCE IT ALLOWS ENTRAINMENT OF AIR THAT
IS TOO LOW A HUMIDITY ON THE CUMULUS SCALE.

HIGHS WILL BE ABOUT 3 DEGREES BELOW THE MEAN TUESDAY...REBOUNDING TO
WITHIN A DEGREE WEDNESDAY. LOWS WILL BE RUNNING ABOUT 2 TO 3 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL MONDAY NIGHT. 77/BD

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...NO CHANGES. THE DEEP UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL PERSIST WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...DAMPENING SOME LATE THIS WEEK. MEANWHILE A SURFACE RIDGE
DOMINATES THE PICTURE OVER EASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM. THIS WOULD BRING CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
AND SKIES AND RAIN FREE CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. HOWEVER BY FRIDAY WE ISOLATED POPCORN TYPE AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING OVER THE WEEKEND.

HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 2 TO 3 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. LOWS WILL BE COOLING TO ABOUT 2 TO 3 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
TUESDAY NIGHT DECREASING TO 6 TO 8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN SOME
INLAND LOCATIONS BY THE WEEKEND. 77/BD

MARINE...STALLED FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE DRAPED OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS THIS EVENING...WHILE A TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF. A GENERAL LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEAST TO
EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE MARINE AREA OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...BECOMING A LITTLE MORE SOUTHEASTERLY AT TIMES NEAR
THE COAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY AS
THE DEPARTING TROPICAL WAVE ALLOWS FOR A SLIGHTLY MORE PREDOMINANT
LARGE SCALE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL
BUILD OVER THE EASTERN GULF BY MID WEEK...WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE
WESTERLY. SEAS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY 2-3 FEET ALL WEEK WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN PREVAILING WIND SPEEDS OVER THE MARINE AREA. ISOLATED TO
OCNLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS...PRIMARILY OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      73  89  71  88  69 /  20  50  40  60  30
PENSACOLA   75  90  74  87  72 /  30  60  40  60  40
DESTIN      79  86  79  86  78 /  30  60  40  60  50
EVERGREEN   69  90  69  87  66 /  20  60  40  50  30
WAYNESBORO  67  90  67  87  66 /  20  30  30  50  20
CAMDEN      68  91  70  87  65 /  20  60  40  50  20
CRESTVIEW   70  91  71  88  69 /  20  60  40  60  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$













000
FXUS64 KMOB 150246 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
946 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.UPDATE...THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE NEEDED. REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO
SHOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST MS...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL AL AND THE NORTHWEST FL
PANHANDLE ALONG AND NEAR A WEAK STATIONARY BOUNDARY THAT REMAINS IN
THE VICINITY OF THE REGION. WE WILL MAINTAIN 20-30 PERCENT COVERAGE
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS. ISOLATED CONVECTION
SHOULD THEN MAINLY BECOME FOCUSED OFFSHORE AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MONDAY. /21

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014/

AVIATION (00Z ISSUANCE)...WILL BEGIN WITH VCSH UNTIL 03Z FOR
LINGERING CONVECTION WITH OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
NIGHT.  VCSH RETURNS BY 15Z WITH VCTS BY 18Z MONDAY AS CONVECTION
DEVELOPS THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN WILL HAVE A TEMPO GROUP
FROM 19-23Z FOR MVFR CONDITIONS IN THUNDERSTORMS.  LIGHT EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST ON MONDAY. /29

*** PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ***

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND MONDAY)...SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER COASTAL
SECTIONS OF THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY TONIGHT. A TROPICAL WAVE NOTED IN SFC DATA AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE
MOVING OFF TOWARD THE WEST THROUGH MONDAY. WITH THIS...THE NORTHEAST
TO EAST WIND FLOW OVER THE REGION WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY ON MONDAY...ALLOWING THE SFC BOUNDARY TO LIFT SLOWLY
BACK TO THE NORTH AND INTO THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF MS/AL BY LATE
MONDAY. LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...THE
SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION IS THE PRIMARY DRIVING FORCE BEHIND CONVECTION
AS UPPER RIDGING HAS BUILT OVER THE REGION. ALL SHOWERS AND STORMS
THAT HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON THUS FAR HAVE BEEN GENERALLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR. EXPECT THESE TO MOVE SLIGHTLY FURTHER
INLAND...THEN BEGIN TO DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. ISOLATED
SHRA/TSRA WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVER THE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS
OVERNIGHT. THE SFC BOUNDARY...COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE (PRIMARILY SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY) AND AFTERNOON HEATING
ON MONDAY...WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
STORMS ON TOMORROW AFTERNOON (WITH THE BEST RAIN CHANCES GENERALLY
ALONG AND SOUTH-EAST OF I-65). WITH MUCH OF THE INTERIOR COUNTIES
JUST ON THE COOLER AND DRIER SIDE OF THE FRONT TONIGHT... MIN TEMPS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S IN THOSE LOCATIONS. CLOSER TO THE
COAST AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. MAX
TEMPS ON MONDAY GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA...EXCEPT FOR A NARROW AREA ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF UPPER
80S TO NEAR 90. 12/DS

FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...A STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDING FROM A LOW OVER ONSLOW BAY WILL REMAIN STALLED ALONG THE
I-65 CORRIDOR. THIS WILL PROVIDE CONVECTIVE FORCING OF NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. GFS AND EURO MODELS
INDICATE IT WILL PUSH BACK OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT AND DRIFT BACK TO
THE NORTH TUESDAY TO JUST NORTH OF THE COASTLINE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THEN ON TUESDAY NIGHT IT WILL PUSH BACK SOUTH AGAIN OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF. AT THE SAME TIME AN UPPER LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES. THESE FEATURES WILL HELP MAINTAIN SUFFICIENT
STRENGTH OF FRONTAL VERTICAL CIRCULATIONS TO MAINTAIN SOME SEMBLANCE
OF CONVECTIVE FORCING. NUMERICAL OUTPUTS REGARDING THE THERMODYNAMIC
STATE OF THE ATMOSPHERE INCLUDE CAPE AVERAGING ABOUT 2400 WITH A
MAXIMUM OF 3600 J/KG...LIFTED INDEX -4 INDICATING "NUMEROUS"
THUNDERSTORMS...SIMILAR TO THE MOS NUMBERS BEING BROUGHT IN...AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 2 INCHES. WE MIGHT SEE SOME CELL TRAINING
AND THEREFORE CONSIDER MOS CALCULATIONS OF LIKELY CHANCES OF
MEASURABLE RAIN TO BE SOUND. IT WILL MOST LIKELY BE SHORT PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AS THE MAIN
EFFECTS OF SOME THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AVERAGE RAINFALL
TOTALS WOULD RANGE FROM 0.5 TO 1.0 INCHES PER 24 HOUR PERIOD IN OUR
AREA TUESDAY WITH LOCALLY HIGHER RAINFALL 2 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE IN
ISOLATED LOCATIONS WITHIN THE SAME PERIOD. WHEN WE SEE THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...THE DEWPOINT DEPRESSION AVERAGES 6 TO 7 DEGREES BETWEEN
THE SURFACE AND 500 MB AND THAT TYPE OF ENVIRONMENT WOULD LIKELY NOT
BE A VERY EFFECTIVE RAINMAKER SINCE IT ALLOWS ENTRAINMENT OF AIR THAT
IS TOO LOW A HUMIDITY ON THE CUMULUS SCALE.

HIGHS WILL BE ABOUT 3 DEGREES BELOW THE MEAN TUESDAY...REBOUNDING TO
WITHIN A DEGREE WEDNESDAY. LOWS WILL BE RUNNING ABOUT 2 TO 3 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL MONDAY NIGHT. 77/BD

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...NO CHANGES. THE DEEP UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL PERSIST WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...DAMPENING SOME LATE THIS WEEK. MEANWHILE A SURFACE RIDGE
DOMINATES THE PICTURE OVER EASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM. THIS WOULD BRING CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
AND SKIES AND RAIN FREE CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. HOWEVER BY FRIDAY WE ISOLATED POPCORN TYPE AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING OVER THE WEEKEND.

HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 2 TO 3 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. LOWS WILL BE COOLING TO ABOUT 2 TO 3 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
TUESDAY NIGHT DECREASING TO 6 TO 8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN SOME
INLAND LOCATIONS BY THE WEEKEND. 77/BD

MARINE...STALLED FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE DRAPED OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS THIS EVENING...WHILE A TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF. A GENERAL LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEAST TO
EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE MARINE AREA OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...BECOMING A LITTLE MORE SOUTHEASTERLY AT TIMES NEAR
THE COAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY AS
THE DEPARTING TROPICAL WAVE ALLOWS FOR A SLIGHTLY MORE PREDOMINANT
LARGE SCALE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL
BUILD OVER THE EASTERN GULF BY MID WEEK...WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE
WESTERLY. SEAS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY 2-3 FEET ALL WEEK WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN PREVAILING WIND SPEEDS OVER THE MARINE AREA. ISOLATED TO
OCNLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS...PRIMARILY OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      73  89  71  88  69 /  20  50  40  60  30
PENSACOLA   75  90  74  87  72 /  30  60  40  60  40
DESTIN      79  86  79  86  78 /  30  60  40  60  50
EVERGREEN   69  90  69  87  66 /  20  60  40  50  30
WAYNESBORO  67  90  67  87  66 /  20  30  30  50  20
CAMDEN      68  91  70  87  65 /  20  60  40  50  20
CRESTVIEW   70  91  71  88  69 /  20  60  40  60  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$











000
FXUS64 KMOB 150246 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
946 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.UPDATE...THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE NEEDED. REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO
SHOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST MS...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL AL AND THE NORTHWEST FL
PANHANDLE ALONG AND NEAR A WEAK STATIONARY BOUNDARY THAT REMAINS IN
THE VICINITY OF THE REGION. WE WILL MAINTAIN 20-30 PERCENT COVERAGE
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS. ISOLATED CONVECTION
SHOULD THEN MAINLY BECOME FOCUSED OFFSHORE AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MONDAY. /21

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014/

AVIATION (00Z ISSUANCE)...WILL BEGIN WITH VCSH UNTIL 03Z FOR
LINGERING CONVECTION WITH OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
NIGHT.  VCSH RETURNS BY 15Z WITH VCTS BY 18Z MONDAY AS CONVECTION
DEVELOPS THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN WILL HAVE A TEMPO GROUP
FROM 19-23Z FOR MVFR CONDITIONS IN THUNDERSTORMS.  LIGHT EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST ON MONDAY. /29

*** PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ***

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND MONDAY)...SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER COASTAL
SECTIONS OF THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY TONIGHT. A TROPICAL WAVE NOTED IN SFC DATA AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE
MOVING OFF TOWARD THE WEST THROUGH MONDAY. WITH THIS...THE NORTHEAST
TO EAST WIND FLOW OVER THE REGION WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY ON MONDAY...ALLOWING THE SFC BOUNDARY TO LIFT SLOWLY
BACK TO THE NORTH AND INTO THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF MS/AL BY LATE
MONDAY. LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...THE
SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION IS THE PRIMARY DRIVING FORCE BEHIND CONVECTION
AS UPPER RIDGING HAS BUILT OVER THE REGION. ALL SHOWERS AND STORMS
THAT HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON THUS FAR HAVE BEEN GENERALLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR. EXPECT THESE TO MOVE SLIGHTLY FURTHER
INLAND...THEN BEGIN TO DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. ISOLATED
SHRA/TSRA WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVER THE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS
OVERNIGHT. THE SFC BOUNDARY...COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE (PRIMARILY SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY) AND AFTERNOON HEATING
ON MONDAY...WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
STORMS ON TOMORROW AFTERNOON (WITH THE BEST RAIN CHANCES GENERALLY
ALONG AND SOUTH-EAST OF I-65). WITH MUCH OF THE INTERIOR COUNTIES
JUST ON THE COOLER AND DRIER SIDE OF THE FRONT TONIGHT... MIN TEMPS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S IN THOSE LOCATIONS. CLOSER TO THE
COAST AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. MAX
TEMPS ON MONDAY GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA...EXCEPT FOR A NARROW AREA ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF UPPER
80S TO NEAR 90. 12/DS

FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...A STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDING FROM A LOW OVER ONSLOW BAY WILL REMAIN STALLED ALONG THE
I-65 CORRIDOR. THIS WILL PROVIDE CONVECTIVE FORCING OF NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. GFS AND EURO MODELS
INDICATE IT WILL PUSH BACK OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT AND DRIFT BACK TO
THE NORTH TUESDAY TO JUST NORTH OF THE COASTLINE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THEN ON TUESDAY NIGHT IT WILL PUSH BACK SOUTH AGAIN OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF. AT THE SAME TIME AN UPPER LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES. THESE FEATURES WILL HELP MAINTAIN SUFFICIENT
STRENGTH OF FRONTAL VERTICAL CIRCULATIONS TO MAINTAIN SOME SEMBLANCE
OF CONVECTIVE FORCING. NUMERICAL OUTPUTS REGARDING THE THERMODYNAMIC
STATE OF THE ATMOSPHERE INCLUDE CAPE AVERAGING ABOUT 2400 WITH A
MAXIMUM OF 3600 J/KG...LIFTED INDEX -4 INDICATING "NUMEROUS"
THUNDERSTORMS...SIMILAR TO THE MOS NUMBERS BEING BROUGHT IN...AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 2 INCHES. WE MIGHT SEE SOME CELL TRAINING
AND THEREFORE CONSIDER MOS CALCULATIONS OF LIKELY CHANCES OF
MEASURABLE RAIN TO BE SOUND. IT WILL MOST LIKELY BE SHORT PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AS THE MAIN
EFFECTS OF SOME THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AVERAGE RAINFALL
TOTALS WOULD RANGE FROM 0.5 TO 1.0 INCHES PER 24 HOUR PERIOD IN OUR
AREA TUESDAY WITH LOCALLY HIGHER RAINFALL 2 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE IN
ISOLATED LOCATIONS WITHIN THE SAME PERIOD. WHEN WE SEE THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...THE DEWPOINT DEPRESSION AVERAGES 6 TO 7 DEGREES BETWEEN
THE SURFACE AND 500 MB AND THAT TYPE OF ENVIRONMENT WOULD LIKELY NOT
BE A VERY EFFECTIVE RAINMAKER SINCE IT ALLOWS ENTRAINMENT OF AIR THAT
IS TOO LOW A HUMIDITY ON THE CUMULUS SCALE.

HIGHS WILL BE ABOUT 3 DEGREES BELOW THE MEAN TUESDAY...REBOUNDING TO
WITHIN A DEGREE WEDNESDAY. LOWS WILL BE RUNNING ABOUT 2 TO 3 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL MONDAY NIGHT. 77/BD

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...NO CHANGES. THE DEEP UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL PERSIST WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...DAMPENING SOME LATE THIS WEEK. MEANWHILE A SURFACE RIDGE
DOMINATES THE PICTURE OVER EASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM. THIS WOULD BRING CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
AND SKIES AND RAIN FREE CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. HOWEVER BY FRIDAY WE ISOLATED POPCORN TYPE AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING OVER THE WEEKEND.

HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 2 TO 3 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. LOWS WILL BE COOLING TO ABOUT 2 TO 3 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
TUESDAY NIGHT DECREASING TO 6 TO 8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN SOME
INLAND LOCATIONS BY THE WEEKEND. 77/BD

MARINE...STALLED FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE DRAPED OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS THIS EVENING...WHILE A TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF. A GENERAL LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEAST TO
EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE MARINE AREA OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...BECOMING A LITTLE MORE SOUTHEASTERLY AT TIMES NEAR
THE COAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY AS
THE DEPARTING TROPICAL WAVE ALLOWS FOR A SLIGHTLY MORE PREDOMINANT
LARGE SCALE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL
BUILD OVER THE EASTERN GULF BY MID WEEK...WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE
WESTERLY. SEAS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY 2-3 FEET ALL WEEK WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN PREVAILING WIND SPEEDS OVER THE MARINE AREA. ISOLATED TO
OCNLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS...PRIMARILY OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      73  89  71  88  69 /  20  50  40  60  30
PENSACOLA   75  90  74  87  72 /  30  60  40  60  40
DESTIN      79  86  79  86  78 /  30  60  40  60  50
EVERGREEN   69  90  69  87  66 /  20  60  40  50  30
WAYNESBORO  67  90  67  87  66 /  20  30  30  50  20
CAMDEN      68  91  70  87  65 /  20  60  40  50  20
CRESTVIEW   70  91  71  88  69 /  20  60  40  60  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KMOB 142347 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
646 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.AVIATION (00Z ISSUANCE)...WILL BEGIN WITH VCSH UNTIL 03Z FOR
LINGERING CONVECTION WITH OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
NIGHT.  VCSH RETURNS BY 15Z WITH VCTS BY 18Z MONDAY AS CONVECTION
DEVELOPS THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN WILL HAVE A TEMPO GROUP
FROM 19-23Z FOR MVFR CONDITIONS IN THUNDERSTORMS.  LIGHT EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST ON MONDAY. /29

&&

*** PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ***

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND MONDAY)...SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER COASTAL
SECTIONS OF THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY TONIGHT. A TROPICAL WAVE NOTED IN SFC DATA AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE
MOVING OFF TOWARD THE WEST THROUGH MONDAY. WITH THIS...THE NORTHEAST
TO EAST WIND FLOW OVER THE REGION WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY ON MONDAY...ALLOWING THE SFC BOUNDARY TO LIFT SLOWLY
BACK TO THE NORTH AND INTO THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF MS/AL BY LATE
MONDAY. LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...THE
SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION IS THE PRIMARY DRIVING FORCE BEHIND CONVECTION
AS UPPER RIDGING HAS BUILT OVER THE REGION. ALL SHOWERS AND STORMS
THAT HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON THUS FAR HAVE BEEN GENERALLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR. EXPECT THESE TO MOVE SLIGHTLY FURTHER
INLAND...THEN BEGIN TO DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. ISOLATED
SHRA/TSRA WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVER THE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS
OVERNIGHT. THE SFC BOUNDARY...COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE (PRIMARILY SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY) AND AFTERNOON HEATING
ON MONDAY...WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
STORMS ON TOMORROW AFTERNOON (WITH THE BEST RAIN CHANCES GENERALLY
ALONG AND SOUTH-EAST OF I-65). WITH MUCH OF THE INTERIOR COUNTIES
JUST ON THE COOLER AND DRIER SIDE OF THE FRONT TONIGHT... MIN TEMPS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S IN THOSE LOCATIONS. CLOSER TO THE
COAST AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. MAX
TEMPS ON MONDAY GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA...EXCEPT FOR A NARROW AREA ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF UPPER
80S TO NEAR 90. 12/DS

FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...A STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDING FROM A LOW OVER ONSLOW BAY WILL REMAIN STALLED ALONG THE
I-65 CORRIDOR. THIS WILL PROVIDE CONVECTIVE FORCING OF NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. GFS AND EURO MODELS
INDICATE IT WILL PUSH BACK OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT AND DRIFT BACK TO
THE NORTH TUESDAY TO JUST NORTH OF THE COASTLINE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THEN ON TUESDAY NIGHT IT WILL PUSH BACK SOUTH AGAIN OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF. AT THE SAME TIME AN UPPER LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES. THESE FEATURES WILL HELP MAINTAIN SUFFICIENT
STRENGTH OF FRONTAL VERTICAL CIRCULATIONS TO MAINTAIN SOME SEMBLANCE
OF CONVECTIVE FORCING. NUMERICAL OUTPUTS REGARDING THE THERMODYNAMIC
STATE OF THE ATMOSPHERE INCLUDE CAPE AVERAGING ABOUT 2400 WITH A
MAXIMUM OF 3600 J/KG...LIFTED INDEX -4 INDICATING "NUMEROUS"
THUNDERSTORMS...SIMILAR TO THE MOS NUMBERS BEING BROUGHT IN...AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 2 INCHES. WE MIGHT SEE SOME CELL TRAINING
AND THEREFORE CONSIDER MOS CALCULATIONS OF LIKELY CHANCES OF
MEASURABLE RAIN TO BE SOUND. IT WILL MOST LIKELY BE SHORT PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AS THE MAIN
EFFECTS OF SOME THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AVERAGE RAINFALL
TOTALS WOULD RANGE FROM 0.5 TO 1.0 INCHES PER 24 HOUR PERIOD IN OUR
AREA TUESDAY WITH LOCALLY HIGHER RAINFALL 2 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE IN
ISOLATED LOCATIONS WITHIN THE SAME PERIOD. WHEN WE SEE THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...THE DEWPOINT DEPRESSION AVERAGES 6 TO 7 DEGREES BETWEEN
THE SURFACE AND 500 MB AND THAT TYPE OF ENVIRONMENT WOULD LIKELY NOT
BE A VERY EFFECTIVE RAINMAKER SINCE IT ALLOWS ENTRAINMENT OF AIR THAT
IS TOO LOW A HUMIDITY ON THE CUMULUS SCALE.

HIGHS WILL BE ABOUT 3 DEGREES BELOW THE MEAN TUESDAY...REBOUNDING TO
WITHIN A DEGREE WEDNESDAY. LOWS WILL BE RUNNING ABOUT 2 TO 3 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL MONDAY NIGHT. 77/BD

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...NO CHANGES. THE DEEP UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL PERSIST WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...DAMPENING SOME LATE THIS WEEK. MEANWHILE A SURFACE RIDGE
DOMINATES THE PICTURE OVER EASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM. THIS WOULD BRING CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
AND SKIES AND RAIN FREE CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. HOWEVER BY FRIDAY WE ISOLATED POPCORN TYPE AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING OVER THE WEEKEND.

HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 2 TO 3 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. LOWS WILL BE COOLING TO ABOUT 2 TO 3 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
TUESDAY NIGHT DECREASING TO 6 TO 8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN SOME
INLAND LOCATIONS BY THE WEEKEND. 77/BD

&&

.MARINE...STALLED FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE DRAPED OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS THIS EVENING...WHILE A TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF. A GENERAL LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEAST TO
EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE MARINE AREA OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...BECOMING A LITTLE MORE SOUTHEASTERLY AT TIMES NEAR
THE COAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY AS
THE DEPARTING TROPICAL WAVE ALLOWS FOR A SLIGHTLY MORE PREDOMINANT
LARGE SCALE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL
BUILD OVER THE EASTERN GULF BY MID WEEK...WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE
WESTERLY. SEAS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY 2-3 FEET ALL WEEK WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN PREVAILING WIND SPEEDS OVER THE MARINE AREA. ISOLATED TO
OCNLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS...PRIMARILY OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      73  89  71  88  69 /  20  50  40  60  30
PENSACOLA   75  90  74  87  72 /  30  60  40  60  40
DESTIN      79  86  79  86  78 /  30  60  40  60  50
EVERGREEN   69  90  69  87  66 /  20  60  40  50  30
WAYNESBORO  67  90  67  87  66 /  20  30  30  50  20
CAMDEN      68  91  70  87  65 /  20  60  40  50  20
CRESTVIEW   70  91  71  88  69 /  20  60  40  60  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMOB 142102
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
402 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND MONDAY)...SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER
COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY TONIGHT. A TROPICAL WAVE NOTED IN SFC DATA AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE
MOVING OFF TOWARD THE WEST THROUGH MONDAY. WITH THIS...THE NORTHEAST
TO EAST WIND FLOW OVER THE REGION WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY ON MONDAY...ALLOWING THE SFC BOUNDARY TO LIFT SLOWLY
BACK TO THE NORTH AND INTO THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF MS/AL BY LATE
MONDAY. LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...THE
SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION IS THE PRIMARY DRIVING FORCE BEHIND CONVECTION
AS UPPER RIDGING HAS BUILT OVER THE REGION. ALL SHOWERS AND STORMS
THAT HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON THUS FAR HAVE BEEN GENERALLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR. EXPECT THESE TO MOVE SLIGHTLY FURTHER
INLAND...THEN BEGIN TO DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. ISOLATED
SHRA/TSRA WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVER THE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS
OVERNIGHT. THE SFC BOUNDARY...COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE (PRIMARILY SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY) AND AFTERNOON HEATING
ON MONDAY...WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
STORMS ON TOMORROW AFTERNOON (WITH THE BEST RAIN CHANCES GENERALLY
ALONG AND SOUTH-EAST OF I-65). WITH MUCH OF THE INTERIOR COUNTIES
JUST ON THE COOLER AND DRIER SIDE OF THE FRONT TONIGHT... MIN TEMPS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S IN THOSE LOCATIONS. CLOSER TO THE
COAST AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. MAX
TEMPS ON MONDAY GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA...EXCEPT FOR A NARROW AREA ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF UPPER
80S TO NEAR 90. 12/DS

(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING
FROM A LOW OVER ONSLOW BAY WILL REMAIN STALLED ALONG THE I-65
CORRIDOR. THIS WILL PROVIDE CONVECTIVE FORCING OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. GFS AND EURO MODELS
INDICATE IT WILL PUSH BACK OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT AND DRIFT BACK TO
THE NORTH TUESDAY TO JUST NORTH OF THE COASTLINE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THEN ON TUESDAY NIGHT IT WILL PUSH BACK SOUTH AGAIN OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF. AT THE SAME TIME AN UPPER LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES. THESE FEATURES WILL HELP MAINTAIN SUFFICIENT
STRENGTH OF FRONTAL VERTICAL CIRCULATIONS TO MAINTAIN SOME SEMBLANCE
OF CONVECTIVE FORCING. NUMERICAL OUTPUTS REGARDING THE THERMODYNAMIC
STATE OF THE ATMOSPHERE INCLUDE CAPE AVERAGING ABOUT 2400 WITH A
MAXIMUM OF 3600 J/KG...LIFTED INDEX -4 INDICATING "NUMEROUS"
THUNDERSTORMS...SIMILAR TO THE MOS NUMBERS BEING BROUGHT IN...AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 2 INCHES. WE MIGHT SEE SOME CELL TRAINING
AND THEREFORE CONSIDER MOS CALCULATIONS OF LIKELY CHANCES OF
MEASURABLE RAIN TO BE SOUND. IT WILL MOST LIKELY BE SHORT PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AS THE MAIN
EFFECTS OF SOME THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AVERAGE RAINFALL
TOTALS WOULD RANGE FROM 0.5 TO 1.0 INCHES PER 24 HOUR PERIOD IN OUR
AREA TUESDAY WITH LOCALLY HIGHER RAINFALL 2 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE IN
ISOLATED LOCATIONS WITHIN THE SAME PERIOD. WHEN WE SEE THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...THE DEWPOINT DEPRESSION AVERAGES 6 TO 7 DEGREES BETWEEN
THE SURFACE AND 500 MB AND THAT TYPE OF ENVIRONMENT WOULD LIKELY NOT
BE A VERY EFFECTIVE RAINMAKER SINCE IT ALLOWS ENTRAINMENT OF AIR THAT
IS TOO LOW A HUMIDITY ON THE CUMULUS SCALE.

HIGHS WILL BE ABOUT 3 DEGREES BELOW THE MEAN TUESDAY...REBOUNDING TO
WITHIN A DEGREE WEDNESDAY. LOWS WILL BE RUNNING ABOUT 2 TO 3 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL MONDAY NIGHT. 77/BD

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...NO CHANGES. THE DEEP UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL PERSIST WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...DAMPENING SOME LATE THIS WEEK. MEANWHILE A SURFACE RIDGE
DOMINATES THE PICTURE OVER EASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM. THIS WOULD BRING CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
AND SKIES AND RAIN FREE CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. HOWEVER BY FRIDAY WE ISOLATED POPCORN TYPE AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING OVER THE WEEKEND.

HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 2 TO 3 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. LOWS WILL BE COOLING TO ABOUT 2 TO 3 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
TUESDAY NIGHT DECREASING TO 6 TO 8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN SOME
INLAND LOCATIONS BY THE WEEKEND. 77/BD

&&

STALLED FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE DRAPED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
THIS EVENING...WHILE A TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF. A GENERAL LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY WIND
FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE MARINE AREA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...
BECOMING A LITTLE MORE SOUTHEASTERLY AT TIMES NEAR THE COAST DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY AS THE DEPARTING
TROPICAL WAVE ALLOWS FOR A SLIGHTLY MORE PREDOMINANT LARGE SCALE
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER
THE EASTERN GULF BY MID WEEK...WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE WESTERLY.
SEAS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY 2-3 FEET ALL WEEK WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
PREVAILING WIND SPEEDS OVER THE MARINE AREA. ISOLATED TO OCNLY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...PRIMARILY
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. 12/DS

&&

.AVIATION (14/18Z AND 15/00Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF ISSUANCES)...A
FEW DEVELOPING CUMULUS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT NO RADAR ECHOES NOTED
ACROSS THE REGION (EXCEPT ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA MOVING WESTWARD OUT
OVER THE GULF TO THE SOUTH). STILL COULD SEE AN ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOP OVER LAND AREAS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH VERY LOCALIZED MVFR TO
IFR CIGS/VSBY EXPECTED NEAR THE CONVECTION. BELIEVE CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED ENOUGH AT TERMINALS ALONG THE COAST TO
CARRY VCTS THIS AFTERNOON...SLIGHTLY BETTER BUT STILL MINIMAL
COVERAGES FURTHER INLAND. OVERNIGHT CONVECTION OVER LAND AREAS
ENDING...BUT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COASTAL AND OFFSHORE CONVECTION
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME...CHANCES FAR TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
IN TERMINALS...BUT LATER RADAR TRENDS COULD LEAD TO ADJUSTMENTS.
LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST WIND BECOMING MORE SOUTHEASTERLY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING MORE EAST TO NORTHEAST AGAIN OVERNIGHT AND
EVENTUALLY LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE COAST. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      73  89  71  88  69 /  20  50  40  60  30
PENSACOLA   75  90  74  87  72 /  30  60  40  60  40
DESTIN      79  86  79  86  78 /  30  60  40  60  50
EVERGREEN   69  90  69  87  66 /  20  60  40  50  30
WAYNESBORO  67  90  67  87  66 /  20  30  30  50  20
CAMDEN      68  91  70  87  65 /  20  60  40  50  20
CRESTVIEW   70  91  71  88  69 /  20  60  40  60  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMOB 142102
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
402 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND MONDAY)...SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER
COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY TONIGHT. A TROPICAL WAVE NOTED IN SFC DATA AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE
MOVING OFF TOWARD THE WEST THROUGH MONDAY. WITH THIS...THE NORTHEAST
TO EAST WIND FLOW OVER THE REGION WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY ON MONDAY...ALLOWING THE SFC BOUNDARY TO LIFT SLOWLY
BACK TO THE NORTH AND INTO THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF MS/AL BY LATE
MONDAY. LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...THE
SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION IS THE PRIMARY DRIVING FORCE BEHIND CONVECTION
AS UPPER RIDGING HAS BUILT OVER THE REGION. ALL SHOWERS AND STORMS
THAT HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON THUS FAR HAVE BEEN GENERALLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR. EXPECT THESE TO MOVE SLIGHTLY FURTHER
INLAND...THEN BEGIN TO DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. ISOLATED
SHRA/TSRA WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVER THE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS
OVERNIGHT. THE SFC BOUNDARY...COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE (PRIMARILY SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY) AND AFTERNOON HEATING
ON MONDAY...WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
STORMS ON TOMORROW AFTERNOON (WITH THE BEST RAIN CHANCES GENERALLY
ALONG AND SOUTH-EAST OF I-65). WITH MUCH OF THE INTERIOR COUNTIES
JUST ON THE COOLER AND DRIER SIDE OF THE FRONT TONIGHT... MIN TEMPS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S IN THOSE LOCATIONS. CLOSER TO THE
COAST AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. MAX
TEMPS ON MONDAY GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA...EXCEPT FOR A NARROW AREA ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF UPPER
80S TO NEAR 90. 12/DS

(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING
FROM A LOW OVER ONSLOW BAY WILL REMAIN STALLED ALONG THE I-65
CORRIDOR. THIS WILL PROVIDE CONVECTIVE FORCING OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. GFS AND EURO MODELS
INDICATE IT WILL PUSH BACK OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT AND DRIFT BACK TO
THE NORTH TUESDAY TO JUST NORTH OF THE COASTLINE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THEN ON TUESDAY NIGHT IT WILL PUSH BACK SOUTH AGAIN OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF. AT THE SAME TIME AN UPPER LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES. THESE FEATURES WILL HELP MAINTAIN SUFFICIENT
STRENGTH OF FRONTAL VERTICAL CIRCULATIONS TO MAINTAIN SOME SEMBLANCE
OF CONVECTIVE FORCING. NUMERICAL OUTPUTS REGARDING THE THERMODYNAMIC
STATE OF THE ATMOSPHERE INCLUDE CAPE AVERAGING ABOUT 2400 WITH A
MAXIMUM OF 3600 J/KG...LIFTED INDEX -4 INDICATING "NUMEROUS"
THUNDERSTORMS...SIMILAR TO THE MOS NUMBERS BEING BROUGHT IN...AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 2 INCHES. WE MIGHT SEE SOME CELL TRAINING
AND THEREFORE CONSIDER MOS CALCULATIONS OF LIKELY CHANCES OF
MEASURABLE RAIN TO BE SOUND. IT WILL MOST LIKELY BE SHORT PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AS THE MAIN
EFFECTS OF SOME THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AVERAGE RAINFALL
TOTALS WOULD RANGE FROM 0.5 TO 1.0 INCHES PER 24 HOUR PERIOD IN OUR
AREA TUESDAY WITH LOCALLY HIGHER RAINFALL 2 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE IN
ISOLATED LOCATIONS WITHIN THE SAME PERIOD. WHEN WE SEE THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...THE DEWPOINT DEPRESSION AVERAGES 6 TO 7 DEGREES BETWEEN
THE SURFACE AND 500 MB AND THAT TYPE OF ENVIRONMENT WOULD LIKELY NOT
BE A VERY EFFECTIVE RAINMAKER SINCE IT ALLOWS ENTRAINMENT OF AIR THAT
IS TOO LOW A HUMIDITY ON THE CUMULUS SCALE.

HIGHS WILL BE ABOUT 3 DEGREES BELOW THE MEAN TUESDAY...REBOUNDING TO
WITHIN A DEGREE WEDNESDAY. LOWS WILL BE RUNNING ABOUT 2 TO 3 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL MONDAY NIGHT. 77/BD

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...NO CHANGES. THE DEEP UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL PERSIST WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...DAMPENING SOME LATE THIS WEEK. MEANWHILE A SURFACE RIDGE
DOMINATES THE PICTURE OVER EASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM. THIS WOULD BRING CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
AND SKIES AND RAIN FREE CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. HOWEVER BY FRIDAY WE ISOLATED POPCORN TYPE AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING OVER THE WEEKEND.

HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 2 TO 3 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. LOWS WILL BE COOLING TO ABOUT 2 TO 3 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
TUESDAY NIGHT DECREASING TO 6 TO 8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN SOME
INLAND LOCATIONS BY THE WEEKEND. 77/BD

&&

STALLED FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE DRAPED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
THIS EVENING...WHILE A TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF. A GENERAL LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY WIND
FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE MARINE AREA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...
BECOMING A LITTLE MORE SOUTHEASTERLY AT TIMES NEAR THE COAST DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY AS THE DEPARTING
TROPICAL WAVE ALLOWS FOR A SLIGHTLY MORE PREDOMINANT LARGE SCALE
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER
THE EASTERN GULF BY MID WEEK...WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE WESTERLY.
SEAS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY 2-3 FEET ALL WEEK WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
PREVAILING WIND SPEEDS OVER THE MARINE AREA. ISOLATED TO OCNLY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...PRIMARILY
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. 12/DS

&&

.AVIATION (14/18Z AND 15/00Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF ISSUANCES)...A
FEW DEVELOPING CUMULUS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT NO RADAR ECHOES NOTED
ACROSS THE REGION (EXCEPT ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA MOVING WESTWARD OUT
OVER THE GULF TO THE SOUTH). STILL COULD SEE AN ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOP OVER LAND AREAS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH VERY LOCALIZED MVFR TO
IFR CIGS/VSBY EXPECTED NEAR THE CONVECTION. BELIEVE CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED ENOUGH AT TERMINALS ALONG THE COAST TO
CARRY VCTS THIS AFTERNOON...SLIGHTLY BETTER BUT STILL MINIMAL
COVERAGES FURTHER INLAND. OVERNIGHT CONVECTION OVER LAND AREAS
ENDING...BUT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COASTAL AND OFFSHORE CONVECTION
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME...CHANCES FAR TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
IN TERMINALS...BUT LATER RADAR TRENDS COULD LEAD TO ADJUSTMENTS.
LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST WIND BECOMING MORE SOUTHEASTERLY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING MORE EAST TO NORTHEAST AGAIN OVERNIGHT AND
EVENTUALLY LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE COAST. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      73  89  71  88  69 /  20  50  40  60  30
PENSACOLA   75  90  74  87  72 /  30  60  40  60  40
DESTIN      79  86  79  86  78 /  30  60  40  60  50
EVERGREEN   69  90  69  87  66 /  20  60  40  50  30
WAYNESBORO  67  90  67  87  66 /  20  30  30  50  20
CAMDEN      68  91  70  87  65 /  20  60  40  50  20
CRESTVIEW   70  91  71  88  69 /  20  60  40  60  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KMOB 141921 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...AVIATION UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
200 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

AVIATION [14.18Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF ISSUANCE]...A FEW DEVELOPING
CUMULUS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT NO RADAR ECHOES NOTED ACROSS THE REGION
(EXCEPT ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA MOVING WESTWARD OUT OVER THE GULF TO THE
SOUTH). STILL COULD SEE AN ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA DEVELOP OVER LAND
AREAS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH VERY LOCALIZED MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBY
EXPECTED NEAR THE CONVECTION. BELIEVE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL BE
LIMITED ENOUGH AT TERMINALS ALONG THE COAST TO CARRY VCTS THIS
AFTERNOON...SLIGHTLY BETTER BUT STILL MINIMAL COVERAGES FURTHER
INLAND. LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST WIND BECOMING MORE SOUTHEASTERLY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING MORE EAST TO NORTHEAST AGAIN
OVERNIGHT. 12/DS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014/

SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE UPPER AIR
PATTERN THIS MORNING WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM
TEXAS...EASTWARD TO OFF THE SOUTHEAST US COAST. AT THE SURFACE...A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS ANALYZED TO BE STATIONARY...DRAPED FROM
NORTHERN GEORGIA TO OFF THE LOUISIANA AND TEXAS GULF COAST. TO THE
SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL ZONE...A TROPICAL WAVE WAS PROPAGATING WESTWARD
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH TONIGHT.

THE HIGH LEVEL RIDGE HOLDS IN THE NEAR TERM WHILE THE FRONTAL ZONE
REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGING FROM 1.8 TO 2 INCHES TODAY. THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SERVES AS A SURFACE FOCUS AND CONSIDERING MOISTURE
AND GUIDANCE...SUGGESTING THAT ENOUGH INSOLATION TODAY CAUSES LOCAL
ENVIRONMENT TO BECOME MORE UNSTABLE...EXPECT TO SEE THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON STORMS. IT APPEARS THIS WILL BE
ALIGNED ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF I-65. NORTHWEST OF THE
INTERSTATE...ISOLATED COVERAGES. PLACEMENT OF THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
TODAY IS CONSISTENT WITH THE HIGH RESOLUTION 14.00Z NCEP 4KM-WRF.
ANY OF THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF DEPOSITING LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS AND BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH.
FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL ALSO BE A HAZARD IN THE STRONGER STORMS. A
DIURNAL DECREASE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE...BECOMING ISOLATED...IS
FORECAST TONIGHT. DAYTIME HIGHS FORECAST IN THE LOWER 90S. OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE UPPER HALF OF THE 60S INTERIOR TO MID 70S CLOSER THE
COAST. /10

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS MODERATE.

[MONDAY AND TUESDAY]...A STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY ALONG THE I-65
CORRIDOR WILL REMAIN A FOCUS FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL PUSH BACK
OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN MEANDER BACK NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY...
SETTLING JUST NORTH OF THE COASTLINE IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL ONCE AGAIN PUSH BACK SOUTH OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
TUESDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...THE UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST WILL SHIFT SOUTHWEST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS A
LARGE UPPER TROUGH DIGS SOUTH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS. ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
RANGE FROM ONE-HALF TO ONE INCH ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
OVER THE TWO DAY PERIOD...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF TWO TO
THREE INCHES POSSIBLE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM 86 TO 91
DEGREES. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 69 TO 72 DEGREES...EXCEPT
FOR THE MID 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM 65 TO 70 DEGREES...WITH LOWER 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST. /22

LONG TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY]...THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS WILL PERSIST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AND THEN
WEAKEN LATE THIS WEEK. MEANWHILE A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL DOMINATE THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG
TERM. THIS WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A DRY PERIOD IS FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY VERY ISOLATED POP-UP AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THEN
LOWER TO NEAR NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. WITH THE DRIER AIR IN
PLACE...LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN RAISE TO NEAR NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND. /22

MARINE...STALLED FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE DRAPED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
TODAY AND TONIGHT...WHILE A TROPICAL EASTERLY WAVE CONTINUES WEST
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN
THE FORECAST IN THE NEAR TERM. LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEAST TO
EASTERLY FLOW THIS MORNING DECREASES AND BECOMES SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. SURFACE HIGH OVER THE GULF INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK MAY RESULT IN A WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE LOCAL
WIND...THEN AN OFFSHORE WIND BY THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGH
PRESSURE DEVELOPING TO THE NORTH. SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET TODAY LEVELS OUT
TO AROUND 2 FEET MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. /10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      90  72  89  72  88 /  30  20  60  40  50
PENSACOLA   90  74  88  74  87 /  30  20  50  40  60
DESTIN      90  77  88  75  88 /  30  20  50  30  60
EVERGREEN   91  69  90  69  90 /  30  20  60  30  40
WAYNESBORO  90  67  90  69  89 /  20  10  60  30  30
CAMDEN      91  68  91  69  90 /  20  10  60  40  30
CRESTVIEW   92  70  90  71  89 /  30  20  60  30  60

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$













000
FXUS64 KMOB 141921 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...AVIATION UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
200 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

AVIATION [14.18Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF ISSUANCE]...A FEW DEVELOPING
CUMULUS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT NO RADAR ECHOES NOTED ACROSS THE REGION
(EXCEPT ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA MOVING WESTWARD OUT OVER THE GULF TO THE
SOUTH). STILL COULD SEE AN ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA DEVELOP OVER LAND
AREAS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH VERY LOCALIZED MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBY
EXPECTED NEAR THE CONVECTION. BELIEVE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL BE
LIMITED ENOUGH AT TERMINALS ALONG THE COAST TO CARRY VCTS THIS
AFTERNOON...SLIGHTLY BETTER BUT STILL MINIMAL COVERAGES FURTHER
INLAND. LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST WIND BECOMING MORE SOUTHEASTERLY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING MORE EAST TO NORTHEAST AGAIN
OVERNIGHT. 12/DS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014/

SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE UPPER AIR
PATTERN THIS MORNING WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM
TEXAS...EASTWARD TO OFF THE SOUTHEAST US COAST. AT THE SURFACE...A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS ANALYZED TO BE STATIONARY...DRAPED FROM
NORTHERN GEORGIA TO OFF THE LOUISIANA AND TEXAS GULF COAST. TO THE
SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL ZONE...A TROPICAL WAVE WAS PROPAGATING WESTWARD
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH TONIGHT.

THE HIGH LEVEL RIDGE HOLDS IN THE NEAR TERM WHILE THE FRONTAL ZONE
REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGING FROM 1.8 TO 2 INCHES TODAY. THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SERVES AS A SURFACE FOCUS AND CONSIDERING MOISTURE
AND GUIDANCE...SUGGESTING THAT ENOUGH INSOLATION TODAY CAUSES LOCAL
ENVIRONMENT TO BECOME MORE UNSTABLE...EXPECT TO SEE THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON STORMS. IT APPEARS THIS WILL BE
ALIGNED ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF I-65. NORTHWEST OF THE
INTERSTATE...ISOLATED COVERAGES. PLACEMENT OF THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
TODAY IS CONSISTENT WITH THE HIGH RESOLUTION 14.00Z NCEP 4KM-WRF.
ANY OF THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF DEPOSITING LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS AND BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH.
FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL ALSO BE A HAZARD IN THE STRONGER STORMS. A
DIURNAL DECREASE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE...BECOMING ISOLATED...IS
FORECAST TONIGHT. DAYTIME HIGHS FORECAST IN THE LOWER 90S. OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE UPPER HALF OF THE 60S INTERIOR TO MID 70S CLOSER THE
COAST. /10

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS MODERATE.

[MONDAY AND TUESDAY]...A STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY ALONG THE I-65
CORRIDOR WILL REMAIN A FOCUS FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL PUSH BACK
OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN MEANDER BACK NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY...
SETTLING JUST NORTH OF THE COASTLINE IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL ONCE AGAIN PUSH BACK SOUTH OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
TUESDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...THE UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST WILL SHIFT SOUTHWEST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS A
LARGE UPPER TROUGH DIGS SOUTH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS. ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
RANGE FROM ONE-HALF TO ONE INCH ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
OVER THE TWO DAY PERIOD...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF TWO TO
THREE INCHES POSSIBLE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM 86 TO 91
DEGREES. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 69 TO 72 DEGREES...EXCEPT
FOR THE MID 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM 65 TO 70 DEGREES...WITH LOWER 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST. /22

LONG TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY]...THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS WILL PERSIST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AND THEN
WEAKEN LATE THIS WEEK. MEANWHILE A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL DOMINATE THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG
TERM. THIS WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A DRY PERIOD IS FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY VERY ISOLATED POP-UP AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THEN
LOWER TO NEAR NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. WITH THE DRIER AIR IN
PLACE...LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN RAISE TO NEAR NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND. /22

MARINE...STALLED FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE DRAPED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
TODAY AND TONIGHT...WHILE A TROPICAL EASTERLY WAVE CONTINUES WEST
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN
THE FORECAST IN THE NEAR TERM. LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEAST TO
EASTERLY FLOW THIS MORNING DECREASES AND BECOMES SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. SURFACE HIGH OVER THE GULF INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK MAY RESULT IN A WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE LOCAL
WIND...THEN AN OFFSHORE WIND BY THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGH
PRESSURE DEVELOPING TO THE NORTH. SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET TODAY LEVELS OUT
TO AROUND 2 FEET MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. /10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      90  72  89  72  88 /  30  20  60  40  50
PENSACOLA   90  74  88  74  87 /  30  20  50  40  60
DESTIN      90  77  88  75  88 /  30  20  50  30  60
EVERGREEN   91  69  90  69  90 /  30  20  60  30  40
WAYNESBORO  90  67  90  69  89 /  20  10  60  30  30
CAMDEN      91  68  91  69  90 /  20  10  60  40  30
CRESTVIEW   92  70  90  71  89 /  30  20  60  30  60

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$












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