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000
FXUS64 KMOB 301110
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
610 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z issuance...General vfr conditions expected through the forecast
under light northerly flow. A Gulf breeze is expected to move inland
during the afternoon hours, spawning isolated to scattered tsra along
the I10 corridor during the mid to late afternoon hours.

/16

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 414 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2016/

NEAR TERM /Now Through Monday night/...A combination of TD Bonnie and
an upper trough over the Caribbean and several closed lows over the
rest of the Conus have flattened the upper ridge over the Eastern
seaboard. The surface ridge present over the northern Gulf coast has
shifted over the Mississippi River Valley, bringing a light
northerly flow to the area.

As today progresses, am looking at the development of another Gulf
breeze developing and moving inland this afternoon. This sets up
pretty decent low level convergence zone over the I10 corridor, so
am expecting afternoon shra/tsra to develop, especially over the
corridor. With the northerly flow, albeit light, am not expecting
much inward penetration, though. A drier airmass has moved over the
area (surrounding 00z upper air soundings show 1.2-1.3" of precip
h20 -around to a bit below seasonal), helping to limit precip
development. Have went between the wetter NAM and drier GFS for the
pop coverage, with a low end chance pop. With the precip and its
increased cloud cover closer to the coast, along with a drier
airmass, have went above seasonal with highs today, generally in the
low 90s. Also, looking at the model soundings along the coast, may
see an isolated strong to severe tsra this afternoon.

For tonight, may see a few residual early evening shra/tsra, but am
not expecting anything significant. Have went generally in the 60s
with the overnight lows tonight, with a dry airmass and clear skies
allowing for better radiational cooling. /16

SHORT TERM /Tuesday Through Wednesday night/...Weak upper ridging
builds into the region from the western Gulf and extreme south
central states through the period as Bonnie is expected to be near
the southeast coast and move northward away from the region. A weak
surface trof will be present over the forecast area on Tuesday but is
expected to either dissipate or shift north of the area Tuesday
night. This feature, and an expected sea breeze developing in the
afternoon, with support slight chance pops for Tuesday followed by
dry conditions Tuesday night.  An upper trof meanwhile advances
across the northern Plains and into the Great Lakes region, with an
associated surface low bringing a trailing cold front to near the
Sabine river valley and mid Mississippi river valley by late
Wednesday night. Have continued with slight chance pops for Wednesday
afternoon mainly for sea breeze convection followed by dry conditions
for Wednesday night. Highs on Tuesday and Wednesday will be in the
lower 90s for much of the area, with some inland locations reaching
the mid 90s, and upper 80s near the coast. Lows Tuesday night will be
in the mid to upper 60s, with lower 70s near the coast. Lows
Wednesday night will be near 70 inland with lower 70s near the coast.
/29

LONG TERM /Thursday Through Sunday/...The upper trof amplifies
into a longwave trof while advancing slightly into the eastern states
through the period. The cold front west of the area is expected to
advance slowly eastward, moving into or near the western portion of
the forecast area late Friday night. The frontal boundary is expected
to shift gradually eastward and just east of the area through Sunday,
weakening further in the process. Have gone with slight chance pops
for Thursday which increase to chance over the westernmost portion on
Friday with the approach of the frontal boundary. Chance to good
chance pops follow for Saturday as the frontal boundary nears the
immediate area, with similar pops continuing for Sunday as the
boundary lingers near the area. Highs on Thursday will be in the
lower 90s inland with mid/upper 80s closer to the coast, then trend
to mainly mid to upper 80s across the area by Sunday. Lows will
generally be near 70, except for lower 70s near the coast. /29

MARINE...A surface ridge has shifted/built over the Mississippi
River Valley as of the beginning of the current forecast. This has
created a light northerly flow over area coastal waters, and am
expecting this to last into mid week. With a Gulf breeze expected to
develop during the afternoon hours, a diurnal off becoming onshore
during the day, then offshore overnight cycle is expected.

The latter half of the week, a surface ridge is expected to develop
over the north/central Gulf of Mexico, creating with a daily Gulf
breeze developing, an diurnal west to southwest switch in a light to
at time moderate flow. /16

&&

.MOB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

This product is also available on the web at:
http://weather.gov/mob





000
FXUS64 KMOB 300459
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1158 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
30/06Z issuance...Earlier showers and storms have dissipated and
no mention of convection overnight or Monday...although isolated
showers and storms will again be possible Monday afternoon.
Otherwise...mostly clear with only few to scattered high clouds
tonight and Monday with some scattered low cumulus Monday afternoon.
VFR ceilings/vsbys through the period. Sfc winds predominately light
and variable remainder of tonight...becoming light north to northeast
early Monday morning and then south to southwest during the
afternoon on monday (especially near the coast) before becoming
light and variable once again during the evening hours. 12/DS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 403 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016/

NEAR TERM /Now Through Monday/...Mid level shortwave ridging
continues to stretch from the western Gulf of Mexico to the Central
Gulf Coast region this afternoon, while surface high pressure was
also meanwhile building over the northern Gulf. The afternoon
seabreeze was advancing inland, and radar at 3 PM showed isolated to
scattered thunderstorms developing near and to the north of this
feature. SPC Mesoscale Analysis shows MLCAPE values averaging around
1000 J/KG across the region, and a strong storm or two with brief
strong wind gusts over 40 mph, frequent lightning and heavy rain
could develop this afternoon, especially in the vicinity of the
seabreeze. Otherwise, a hot and somewhat muggy afternoon is ongoing
with the ridge axis extending overhead, with temperatures reaching
around 90 to the lower 90s over most inland locations.

Isolated to scattered convection will be diurnally driven with lack
of upper forcing, so activity should diminish with loss of daytime
heating. Will have POPs falling below mentionable levels after 00Z,
with skies becoming mostly clear tonight. Overnight lows should
range from the mid to upper 60s inland, and 70-75 again near the
beaches. A similar pattern should persist for Memorial Day, with a
mid level ridge extending across the western Gulf, with the northern
periphery of the ridge axis near the vicinity of our forecast area.
A fairly moist airmass, with precipitable water values averaging
between 1.25-1.5" along with available instability(MLCAPE averaging
750-1500 J/KG), the advancing seabreeze, and perhaps a minor impulse
embedded on the periphery of the ridge will support carrying at
least isolated thunderstorms in the forecast again Monday afternoon.
Another hot day can otherwise be expected with highs in the lower to
mid 90s inland, and close to 90 near the beaches. /21

SHORT TERM /Monday night Through Wednesday night/...Weak upper flow
pattern remains over the forecast area through the week. The area
remains between a broad upper trough to the west and TD Bonnie over
the Carolina coast. A weak sfc trough from Bonnie will continue
across the area. However, only isolated showers and thudnerstorms can
be expected each afternoon. Hot conditions continue with highs in the
upper 80s and low 90s. Lows will be in the upper 60s to low 70s. /13

LONG TERM /Thursday Through Sunday/...The GFS has come in line with
the slower ECMWF for the extended range. Both now agree on an upper
low cutting off in the base of the trough as it advances toward the
area late in the week. The upper low then slowly moves east through
the weekend. Therefore, still expect increasing chances of rain late
in the week into the weekend. Highs will start the period in the
upper 80s and low 90s before trending back into the mid and upper 80s
late in the period as rain chances increase. /13

MARINE...A surface ridge of high pressure will stretch across the
northern Gulf of Mexico through much of the week. A daily pattern of
light offshore flow at night, with light to moderate onshore flow
developing during the day will continue through the week. Wind
speeds may be a bit more enhanced over bays, sounds, and near shore
waters during the day with the enhancement provided by the seabreeze
circulation. Seas remain low through the period. /21

&&

.MOB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

This product is also available on the web at:
http://weather.gov/mob





000
FXUS64 KMOB 282053
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
353 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.NEAR TERM /Now Through Sunday/...Early afternoon water
vapor imagery and RAP 500 MB analysis show an upper level trough
moving eastward across southeastern LA into western MS. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms have developed across southeastern LA in
advance of this feature, and have so far remained west of our
forecast area. Radar does show isolated showers and thunderstorms
developing along the seabreeze across the interior northwest FL
panhandle. Temperatures have warmed into the mid to upper 80s over
most locations despite increased mid and upper level cloud cover
across the region.

The upper level trough will gradually approach southeast MS and
southwest AL this afternoon, before models weaken/dampen this feature
as it progresses eastward across the remainder of the region tonight.
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain possible
through the late afternoon hours, and kept the best chance over
southeast MS in the vicinity of the approaching trough. Convection
should diminish with loss of daytime heating, and expect isolated
left-over convection to dissipate after 8-9 PM. High resolution
models, along with SREF/NAM guidance hint at patchy fog development
over southeast MS, and possibly near the southwest AL/northwest FL
panhandle coast early Sunday morning. Otherwise, mostly clear to
partly cloudy tonight, with lows in the mid to upper 60s inland and
70-75 near the beaches and immediate coast. Shortwave ridging aloft
is expected to extend from the western Gulf of Mexico to the Central
Gulf Coast Sunday. Isolated afternoon showers and storms will be
possible along the seabreeze Sunday afternoon. Ridging aloft should
promote very warm temperatures across the forecast area Sunday
afternoon, with highs ranging from the upper 80s near the beaches to
the lower 90s inland. /21


.SHORT TERM /Sunday night Through Tuesday night/...A weak upper flow
pattern persists as the area remains between a weak upper ridge to
our west and area of low pressure (TD-2) off the coastal Carolinas.
This will lead to a generally light northerly flow except near the
coast, where a southerly flow will develop each afternoon with the
seabreeze. Highs will be in the upper 80s and low 90s. Lows will
generally be in the upper 60s and low 70s. Cannot rule out an
isolated shower or thunderstorm each afternoon but most areas will
remain dry. /13


.LONG TERM /Wednesday Through Saturday/...An upper trough begins to
dig southward to our west through the end of the week. This will send
a cold front toward the Gulf Coast late in the work week. This will
bring increasing chances for rain and some cooler temps due to
increased clouds and rain. The global models disagree on how fast
this system moves through with the ECMWF slower than the GFS as it
develops a cutoff upper low over the mid-south. The forecast
currently has scattered showers and thunderstorms Thursday through
Saturday and see no reason to change based on the uncertainty late in
the period. /13

&&

.MARINE...High pressure will build across the Gulf of Mexico through
the middle of next week. A daily pattern of light offshore flow at
night, and light to occasionally moderate southwest flow during the
day can be expected through Wednesday. Seas remain low through the
period. /21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      67  90  72  91 /  10  20  10  20
Pensacola   70  89  74  89 /  10  20  10  20
Destin      73  87  75  87 /  10  20  10  10
Evergreen   66  92  69  93 /  10  20  10  20
Waynesboro  66  90  69  92 /  20  20  10  20
Camden      66  91  70  91 /  10  10  10  20
Crestview   66  93  71  94 /  10  20  10  20

&&

.MOB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

This product is also available on the web at:
http://weather.gov/mob





000
FXUS64 KMOB 280844
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
344 AM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.NEAR TERM /Now Through Saturday night/...For the first two periods of
the forecast, TD2 meanders slowly north along the Florida Atlantic
seaboard. Shortwave energy sweeps around the base and eastern side
of an upper system over the central/northern plains. The subsidence
from TD2 has shifted east of the area, though an upper ridge
stretching north along the Atlantic coast that TD2 is embedded in
continues to show subsidence in the soundings from surrounding
offices. For the forecast, subsidence from the ridge will keep temps
close to seasonal today. The passing shortwave energy combined with
abundant moisture over the Lower Mississippi River Valley will bring
precip, mainly to the northwestern portion of the area today as the
better subsidence from the upper ridge suppresses convection. Western
portions may see a few residual shra/tsra in the evening, but am
expecting mostly daytime activity. /16

.SHORT TERM /Sunday Through Monday night/...An upper trof extending
from the Great Lakes into the extreme southeast states dampens while
shifting eastward through the period, becoming aligned along the east
coastal states. Broad upper ridging meanwhile persists over the
southern plains and western Gulf, with a series of shortwaves
advancing eastward across the central Gulf coastal states. A light
northerly flow prevails over the area on Sunday and Monday, except
for a southerly flow developing over the southern portion of the area
with the afternoon sea breeze. Have opted to continue with slight
chance pops over the interior western portion of the area Sunday
afternoon, where expected subsidence associated with a system near
the Carolinas will be weakest. Have continued with slight chance pops
for the entire area for Monday as the aforementioned system weakens.
Highs will range from the lower 90s inland to the upper 80s near the
coast. Lows Sunday night will range from the mid 60s inland to upper
60s closer to the coast, then lows Monday night will be near 70
inland with lower 70s closer to the coast. /29

.LONG TERM /Tuesday Through Friday/...An upper trof advances across
the central states and evolves into a longwave trof while continuing
into the eastern states on Friday. A light southerly flow ensues over
the forecast area on Tuesday and continues through Thursday as a
surface ridge becomes established over the northern Gulf. A surface
low well to the north, associated with the upper trof, brings a
trailing cold front across the Plains meanwhile, with the frontal
boundary expected to move into or near the forecast area on Friday.
Have continued with slight chance pops for Tuesday and Wednesday, the
pops trend upwards to chance to good chance pops by Friday as the
front nears and possibly enters the forecast area. Highs will be
mostly in the lower 90s for Tuesday and Wednesday, except for upper
80s near the coast, then moderate through the end of the work week,
with highs on Friday mostly in the upper 80s inland with mid 80s near
the coast. Lows each night will be near 70 inland with lower 70s
near the coast. /29

&&

.MARINE...The surface low from TD2 meandering north along the Florida
Atlantic coast disrupts a surface ridge stretching west over the
northern Gulf coast tonight through Sunday. This will switch a
general southeasterly flow to a light northeasterly. With a surface
high rebuilding over the north-central Gulf of Mex Sunday into
Monday, a west to northwest flow over the marine area results,
lasting into mid week, when the surface ridge shifts over the
northeastern Gulf. This will bring a return of onshore flow mid week.
/16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      87  67  90  68 /  20   0  10  10
Pensacola   86  71  90  72 /  20   0  10  10
Destin      85  73  87  73 /  20  10  10  10
Evergreen   87  66  92  66 /  20  10  10  10
Waynesboro  88  66  90  65 /  30  10  20  10
Camden      87  66  91  67 /  20  10  10  10
Crestview   88  66  94  66 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.MOB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

This product is also available on the web at:
http://weather.gov/mob





000
FXUS64 KMOB 280604 AAC
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
104 AM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...See updated information for land areas below.

&&

.UPDATE...Package updated to reflect isoalted shra across mainly the
western half of the fa. Am expecting QPF amounts to be negligible,
though.

/16

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1151 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016/

DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
28/06Z issuance...VFR conditions expected to prevail through the
next 24 hours. Primarily high thin clouds expected tonight through
saturday...although some scattered afternoon mid level cumulus likely.
Some patchy light fog late tonight as well...but not widespread
enough to include in TAFS. Light...mainly southeast to south surface
winds rest of tonight through Saturday morning. 12/DS

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 827 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016/

DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
28/00Z issuance...VFR conditions expected to prevail through the
next 24 hours. Only a few high thin clouds tonight and some patchy
light fog in some locations. Light...mainly southeast surface winds
overnight into Saturday morning. 12/DS

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 404 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016/

NEAR TERM /Now Through Saturday/...Upper level ridging remains
in place across the Central Gulf Coast through the period. The ridge
does weaken somewhat on Saturday as an upper shortwave moves across
the midwestern states. However...expect continued hot and dry
conditions to continue. While there may be an isolated shower or
thunderstorm during the afternoon, the chances are not high enough
to include in the forecast and will leave it dry. Lows tonight will
fall into the upper 60s and low 70s. Highs on Saturday will climb
into the upper 80s with low 80s near the coast. /13

SHORT TERM /Saturday night Through Monday night/...A weak surface
high pressure area will remain across the forecast area through the
Memorial Day Weekend as a tropical depression nearly the Southeast
U.S. coast becomes nearly stationary. As a result, maintained
isolated showers and thunderstorms in the forecast for both Sunday
and Monday afternoons across our inland zones northwest of I-65. Dry
weather conditions will persist elsewhere. Patchy fog development is
also possible late each night.

Low temperatures over the Memorial Day weekend will range from 65 to
70 degrees inland areas...with lower 70s along the immediate coastal
sections. High temperatures Sunday and Monday will range from 88 to
93 degrees inland areas...with mid 80s along the immediate coastal
sections. /22

LONG TERM /Tuesday Through Friday/...The tropical depression will
continue to meander off the southeast coast through midweek. As a
result, isolated to low-end scattered showers and thunderstorms will
be possible during the daytime hours through the long term, mainly
during the afternoon and early evening hours. A gradual warming
trend will occur through the period with inland highs ranging from 90
to 95 degrees Tuesday through Thursday...with upper 80s along the
coast. Lows will range from 68 to 73 degrees with mid 70s at the
beaches. /22

MARINE...High pressure will remain from the western Atlantic across
the northern Gulf. This will maintain a light to occasionally
moderate southerly flow into the weekend. Light and variable winds
develop late into the weekend into early next week as high pressure
builds over the northern Gulf. A light west to southwest wind flow
develops early next week as the high moves east. /13

&&

.MOB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

This product is also available on the web at:
http://weather.gov/mob





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