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000
FXUS64 KMOB 282355 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
655 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN AND
AROUND THUNDERSTORMS. /13


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE OK/AR BORDER
STRETCHING EAST OVER THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF COAST
STATES WILL MOVE LITTLE THROUGH WED AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOSTLY OVER THE FL PENISULA EAST OF CEDAR KEY IS
PROGGED TO DRIFT NORTH OVER N FL AND LOWER GA THROUGH WED AFTERNOON
DRIFTING FURTHER WEST LATER IN THE EVENING. IN THE MID LEVELS
SLIGHTLY BETTER FORCING IS NOTED BY WED AS ANOTHER IMPULSE MOVES
SOUTH ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE TRACKING SOUTH OVER
CENTRAL AL BY MIDDAY. LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICT BETTER MOISTURE
FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA ALSO BY MIDDAY ON WED WITH PWATS RANGING
FROM 2.0 TO 2.2 INCHES. AS A RESULT EXPECT BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR WED BEGINNING BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. ALTHOUGH WEDNESDAY`S
COVERAGE WILL BE BETTER THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS BELIEVE MOST OF
THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS DUE TO MARGINAL
LAPSE RATES AND DEEPER MOISTURE ALOFT. WITH GOOD SURFACE HEATING
DURING THE DAY WE WILL LIKELY SEE AFTERNOON CAPES REACHING 3500 TO
4000 J/KG WHICH COULD HELP TRIGGER AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM MOST LIKELY WELL INLAND FROM THE COAST BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON.

AS FOR TEMPS FORECASTED HEAT INDICES LOOK TO RANGE FROM 105 TO 110
DEGREES FOR TOMORROW WITH MANY AREAS REACHING OR EXCEEDING THE 108
DEGREE THRESHOLD. AS A RESULT WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY
FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FOR WED BEGINNING AT 11 AM CDT WED
ENDING AT 7 PM CDT THU. TONIGHT`S LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S FOR
MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE MID TO UPPER 70S CLOSER TO THE COAST.
WEDNESDAY`S HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 90S INLAND AND
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S CLOSER TO THE COAST. 32/EE

THIS AFTERNOONS WET MICROBURST RISK REMAINS LOW.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEAK PERTURBATIONS...ROTATING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE...WILL CONTINUE AID IN INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE
REGION HEADING INTO THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THE ADDED
BIT OF MOISTURE AND FORCING...MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW A SCATTERED
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION TO CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.

THE PATTERN SHOULD START TO SHIFT BY THURSDAY.  A WEAKNESS IN THE
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD MOVE INTO OUR AREA...AS THE RIDGE AXIS
RETROGRADES.  MEANWHILE...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND PUSH A COLD FRONT
(MORE-OR-LESS IN NAME ONLY) SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BY THURSDAY.

IT LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT SHOULD ENTER OUR FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...THEN BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY AS IT
APPROACHES THE COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING.  THE FRONT WILL LIKELY
WAFFLE NORTH AND SOUTH A BIT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE TRAVERSE THE BOUNDARY.

DESPITE SOME TEMPORAL DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN DETERMINISTIC OUTPUT OF
THE MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS...ENSEMBLE MEMBERS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.  THAT
SAID...FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS RATHER HIGH THROUGH AT LEAST THE
END OF THE WEEK.

OUR GREATEST SHOT OF SEEING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY COME
FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE AREA AND CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR REGIONS CLOSER TO THE COAST.  I WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
ANY CONVECTION DURING THIS PERIOD GIVEN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
HOVERING AROUND 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS
FOR EARLY AUGUST.  SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS WILL CONTINUE TO REFINE THE
EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION OF ANY HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL.

THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE MAY TRY TO REBUILD FROM THE WEST BY SUNDAY...
ALLOWING THE FRONT TO WEAKEN...THEN DISSIPATE BY MONDAY. GIVEN LOWER
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AT THE END OF THE FORECAST...I WILL REFRAIN FROM
MAKING TOO MANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE DAY 6 AND 7 TIME FRAME.
/02/

MARINE...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS
STRETCHING EAST TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF STATES... COMBINED WITH A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH SHIFTING NORTHWARD OVER THE EXTREME EASTERN GULF
WILL HELP MAINTAIN A LIGHT TO MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE MARINE
AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. AS THE WEAK TROF OF LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS
NORTHWARD EXPECT BETTER RAIN CHANCES FOR MOST OF THE MARINE AREA
BEGINNING WED CONTINUING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL BE HIGHER NEAR THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE BEST COVERAGE
OCCURRING DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WELL OFFSHORE
AND NEAR THE COAST INCLUDING INLAND BAYS AND SOUNDS DURING THE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANCE IN SEAS IS
EXPECTED THROUGH FRI. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      75  95  76  92  77 /  20  40  40  40  40
PENSACOLA   78  95  78  91  78 /  20  40  40  40  30
DESTIN      80  94  80  89  80 /  20  40  40  50  30
EVERGREEN   75  96  75  94  75 /  20  40  40  40  40
WAYNESBORO  74  97  75  95  74 /  20  40  40  40  30
CAMDEN      75  97  75  95  74 /  30  40  40  40  30
CRESTVIEW   74  96  76  92  75 /  20  40  40  40  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR BALDWIN
     CENTRAL-BALDWIN COASTAL-BALDWIN INLAND-BUTLER-CHOCTAW-
     CLARKE-CONECUH-COVINGTON-CRENSHAW-ESCAMBIA-MOBILE CENTRAL-
     MOBILE COASTAL-MOBILE INLAND-MONROE-WASHINGTON-WILCOX.

FL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ESCAMBIA
     COASTAL-ESCAMBIA INLAND-OKALOOSA COASTAL-OKALOOSA INLAND-
     SANTA ROSA COASTAL-SANTA ROSA INLAND.

MS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR GEORGE-GREENE-
     PERRY-STONE-WAYNE.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMOB 282355 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
655 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN AND
AROUND THUNDERSTORMS. /13


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE OK/AR BORDER
STRETCHING EAST OVER THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF COAST
STATES WILL MOVE LITTLE THROUGH WED AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOSTLY OVER THE FL PENISULA EAST OF CEDAR KEY IS
PROGGED TO DRIFT NORTH OVER N FL AND LOWER GA THROUGH WED AFTERNOON
DRIFTING FURTHER WEST LATER IN THE EVENING. IN THE MID LEVELS
SLIGHTLY BETTER FORCING IS NOTED BY WED AS ANOTHER IMPULSE MOVES
SOUTH ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE TRACKING SOUTH OVER
CENTRAL AL BY MIDDAY. LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICT BETTER MOISTURE
FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA ALSO BY MIDDAY ON WED WITH PWATS RANGING
FROM 2.0 TO 2.2 INCHES. AS A RESULT EXPECT BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR WED BEGINNING BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. ALTHOUGH WEDNESDAY`S
COVERAGE WILL BE BETTER THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS BELIEVE MOST OF
THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS DUE TO MARGINAL
LAPSE RATES AND DEEPER MOISTURE ALOFT. WITH GOOD SURFACE HEATING
DURING THE DAY WE WILL LIKELY SEE AFTERNOON CAPES REACHING 3500 TO
4000 J/KG WHICH COULD HELP TRIGGER AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM MOST LIKELY WELL INLAND FROM THE COAST BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON.

AS FOR TEMPS FORECASTED HEAT INDICES LOOK TO RANGE FROM 105 TO 110
DEGREES FOR TOMORROW WITH MANY AREAS REACHING OR EXCEEDING THE 108
DEGREE THRESHOLD. AS A RESULT WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY
FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FOR WED BEGINNING AT 11 AM CDT WED
ENDING AT 7 PM CDT THU. TONIGHT`S LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S FOR
MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE MID TO UPPER 70S CLOSER TO THE COAST.
WEDNESDAY`S HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 90S INLAND AND
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S CLOSER TO THE COAST. 32/EE

THIS AFTERNOONS WET MICROBURST RISK REMAINS LOW.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEAK PERTURBATIONS...ROTATING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE...WILL CONTINUE AID IN INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE
REGION HEADING INTO THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THE ADDED
BIT OF MOISTURE AND FORCING...MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW A SCATTERED
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION TO CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.

THE PATTERN SHOULD START TO SHIFT BY THURSDAY.  A WEAKNESS IN THE
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD MOVE INTO OUR AREA...AS THE RIDGE AXIS
RETROGRADES.  MEANWHILE...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND PUSH A COLD FRONT
(MORE-OR-LESS IN NAME ONLY) SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BY THURSDAY.

IT LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT SHOULD ENTER OUR FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...THEN BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY AS IT
APPROACHES THE COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING.  THE FRONT WILL LIKELY
WAFFLE NORTH AND SOUTH A BIT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE TRAVERSE THE BOUNDARY.

DESPITE SOME TEMPORAL DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN DETERMINISTIC OUTPUT OF
THE MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS...ENSEMBLE MEMBERS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.  THAT
SAID...FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS RATHER HIGH THROUGH AT LEAST THE
END OF THE WEEK.

OUR GREATEST SHOT OF SEEING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY COME
FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE AREA AND CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR REGIONS CLOSER TO THE COAST.  I WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
ANY CONVECTION DURING THIS PERIOD GIVEN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
HOVERING AROUND 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS
FOR EARLY AUGUST.  SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS WILL CONTINUE TO REFINE THE
EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION OF ANY HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL.

THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE MAY TRY TO REBUILD FROM THE WEST BY SUNDAY...
ALLOWING THE FRONT TO WEAKEN...THEN DISSIPATE BY MONDAY. GIVEN LOWER
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AT THE END OF THE FORECAST...I WILL REFRAIN FROM
MAKING TOO MANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE DAY 6 AND 7 TIME FRAME.
/02/

MARINE...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS
STRETCHING EAST TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF STATES... COMBINED WITH A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH SHIFTING NORTHWARD OVER THE EXTREME EASTERN GULF
WILL HELP MAINTAIN A LIGHT TO MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE MARINE
AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. AS THE WEAK TROF OF LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS
NORTHWARD EXPECT BETTER RAIN CHANCES FOR MOST OF THE MARINE AREA
BEGINNING WED CONTINUING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL BE HIGHER NEAR THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE BEST COVERAGE
OCCURRING DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WELL OFFSHORE
AND NEAR THE COAST INCLUDING INLAND BAYS AND SOUNDS DURING THE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANCE IN SEAS IS
EXPECTED THROUGH FRI. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      75  95  76  92  77 /  20  40  40  40  40
PENSACOLA   78  95  78  91  78 /  20  40  40  40  30
DESTIN      80  94  80  89  80 /  20  40  40  50  30
EVERGREEN   75  96  75  94  75 /  20  40  40  40  40
WAYNESBORO  74  97  75  95  74 /  20  40  40  40  30
CAMDEN      75  97  75  95  74 /  30  40  40  40  30
CRESTVIEW   74  96  76  92  75 /  20  40  40  40  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR BALDWIN
     CENTRAL-BALDWIN COASTAL-BALDWIN INLAND-BUTLER-CHOCTAW-
     CLARKE-CONECUH-COVINGTON-CRENSHAW-ESCAMBIA-MOBILE CENTRAL-
     MOBILE COASTAL-MOBILE INLAND-MONROE-WASHINGTON-WILCOX.

FL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ESCAMBIA
     COASTAL-ESCAMBIA INLAND-OKALOOSA COASTAL-OKALOOSA INLAND-
     SANTA ROSA COASTAL-SANTA ROSA INLAND.

MS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR GEORGE-GREENE-
     PERRY-STONE-WAYNE.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 282355 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
655 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN AND
AROUND THUNDERSTORMS. /13


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE OK/AR BORDER
STRETCHING EAST OVER THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF COAST
STATES WILL MOVE LITTLE THROUGH WED AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOSTLY OVER THE FL PENISULA EAST OF CEDAR KEY IS
PROGGED TO DRIFT NORTH OVER N FL AND LOWER GA THROUGH WED AFTERNOON
DRIFTING FURTHER WEST LATER IN THE EVENING. IN THE MID LEVELS
SLIGHTLY BETTER FORCING IS NOTED BY WED AS ANOTHER IMPULSE MOVES
SOUTH ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE TRACKING SOUTH OVER
CENTRAL AL BY MIDDAY. LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICT BETTER MOISTURE
FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA ALSO BY MIDDAY ON WED WITH PWATS RANGING
FROM 2.0 TO 2.2 INCHES. AS A RESULT EXPECT BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR WED BEGINNING BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. ALTHOUGH WEDNESDAY`S
COVERAGE WILL BE BETTER THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS BELIEVE MOST OF
THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS DUE TO MARGINAL
LAPSE RATES AND DEEPER MOISTURE ALOFT. WITH GOOD SURFACE HEATING
DURING THE DAY WE WILL LIKELY SEE AFTERNOON CAPES REACHING 3500 TO
4000 J/KG WHICH COULD HELP TRIGGER AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM MOST LIKELY WELL INLAND FROM THE COAST BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON.

AS FOR TEMPS FORECASTED HEAT INDICES LOOK TO RANGE FROM 105 TO 110
DEGREES FOR TOMORROW WITH MANY AREAS REACHING OR EXCEEDING THE 108
DEGREE THRESHOLD. AS A RESULT WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY
FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FOR WED BEGINNING AT 11 AM CDT WED
ENDING AT 7 PM CDT THU. TONIGHT`S LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S FOR
MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE MID TO UPPER 70S CLOSER TO THE COAST.
WEDNESDAY`S HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 90S INLAND AND
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S CLOSER TO THE COAST. 32/EE

THIS AFTERNOONS WET MICROBURST RISK REMAINS LOW.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEAK PERTURBATIONS...ROTATING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE...WILL CONTINUE AID IN INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE
REGION HEADING INTO THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THE ADDED
BIT OF MOISTURE AND FORCING...MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW A SCATTERED
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION TO CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.

THE PATTERN SHOULD START TO SHIFT BY THURSDAY.  A WEAKNESS IN THE
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD MOVE INTO OUR AREA...AS THE RIDGE AXIS
RETROGRADES.  MEANWHILE...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND PUSH A COLD FRONT
(MORE-OR-LESS IN NAME ONLY) SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BY THURSDAY.

IT LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT SHOULD ENTER OUR FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...THEN BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY AS IT
APPROACHES THE COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING.  THE FRONT WILL LIKELY
WAFFLE NORTH AND SOUTH A BIT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE TRAVERSE THE BOUNDARY.

DESPITE SOME TEMPORAL DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN DETERMINISTIC OUTPUT OF
THE MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS...ENSEMBLE MEMBERS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.  THAT
SAID...FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS RATHER HIGH THROUGH AT LEAST THE
END OF THE WEEK.

OUR GREATEST SHOT OF SEEING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY COME
FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE AREA AND CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR REGIONS CLOSER TO THE COAST.  I WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
ANY CONVECTION DURING THIS PERIOD GIVEN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
HOVERING AROUND 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS
FOR EARLY AUGUST.  SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS WILL CONTINUE TO REFINE THE
EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION OF ANY HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL.

THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE MAY TRY TO REBUILD FROM THE WEST BY SUNDAY...
ALLOWING THE FRONT TO WEAKEN...THEN DISSIPATE BY MONDAY. GIVEN LOWER
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AT THE END OF THE FORECAST...I WILL REFRAIN FROM
MAKING TOO MANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE DAY 6 AND 7 TIME FRAME.
/02/

MARINE...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS
STRETCHING EAST TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF STATES... COMBINED WITH A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH SHIFTING NORTHWARD OVER THE EXTREME EASTERN GULF
WILL HELP MAINTAIN A LIGHT TO MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE MARINE
AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. AS THE WEAK TROF OF LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS
NORTHWARD EXPECT BETTER RAIN CHANCES FOR MOST OF THE MARINE AREA
BEGINNING WED CONTINUING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL BE HIGHER NEAR THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE BEST COVERAGE
OCCURRING DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WELL OFFSHORE
AND NEAR THE COAST INCLUDING INLAND BAYS AND SOUNDS DURING THE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANCE IN SEAS IS
EXPECTED THROUGH FRI. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      75  95  76  92  77 /  20  40  40  40  40
PENSACOLA   78  95  78  91  78 /  20  40  40  40  30
DESTIN      80  94  80  89  80 /  20  40  40  50  30
EVERGREEN   75  96  75  94  75 /  20  40  40  40  40
WAYNESBORO  74  97  75  95  74 /  20  40  40  40  30
CAMDEN      75  97  75  95  74 /  30  40  40  40  30
CRESTVIEW   74  96  76  92  75 /  20  40  40  40  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR BALDWIN
     CENTRAL-BALDWIN COASTAL-BALDWIN INLAND-BUTLER-CHOCTAW-
     CLARKE-CONECUH-COVINGTON-CRENSHAW-ESCAMBIA-MOBILE CENTRAL-
     MOBILE COASTAL-MOBILE INLAND-MONROE-WASHINGTON-WILCOX.

FL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ESCAMBIA
     COASTAL-ESCAMBIA INLAND-OKALOOSA COASTAL-OKALOOSA INLAND-
     SANTA ROSA COASTAL-SANTA ROSA INLAND.

MS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR GEORGE-GREENE-
     PERRY-STONE-WAYNE.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMOB 282355 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
655 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN AND
AROUND THUNDERSTORMS. /13


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE OK/AR BORDER
STRETCHING EAST OVER THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF COAST
STATES WILL MOVE LITTLE THROUGH WED AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOSTLY OVER THE FL PENISULA EAST OF CEDAR KEY IS
PROGGED TO DRIFT NORTH OVER N FL AND LOWER GA THROUGH WED AFTERNOON
DRIFTING FURTHER WEST LATER IN THE EVENING. IN THE MID LEVELS
SLIGHTLY BETTER FORCING IS NOTED BY WED AS ANOTHER IMPULSE MOVES
SOUTH ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE TRACKING SOUTH OVER
CENTRAL AL BY MIDDAY. LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICT BETTER MOISTURE
FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA ALSO BY MIDDAY ON WED WITH PWATS RANGING
FROM 2.0 TO 2.2 INCHES. AS A RESULT EXPECT BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR WED BEGINNING BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. ALTHOUGH WEDNESDAY`S
COVERAGE WILL BE BETTER THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS BELIEVE MOST OF
THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS DUE TO MARGINAL
LAPSE RATES AND DEEPER MOISTURE ALOFT. WITH GOOD SURFACE HEATING
DURING THE DAY WE WILL LIKELY SEE AFTERNOON CAPES REACHING 3500 TO
4000 J/KG WHICH COULD HELP TRIGGER AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM MOST LIKELY WELL INLAND FROM THE COAST BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON.

AS FOR TEMPS FORECASTED HEAT INDICES LOOK TO RANGE FROM 105 TO 110
DEGREES FOR TOMORROW WITH MANY AREAS REACHING OR EXCEEDING THE 108
DEGREE THRESHOLD. AS A RESULT WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY
FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FOR WED BEGINNING AT 11 AM CDT WED
ENDING AT 7 PM CDT THU. TONIGHT`S LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S FOR
MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE MID TO UPPER 70S CLOSER TO THE COAST.
WEDNESDAY`S HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 90S INLAND AND
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S CLOSER TO THE COAST. 32/EE

THIS AFTERNOONS WET MICROBURST RISK REMAINS LOW.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEAK PERTURBATIONS...ROTATING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE...WILL CONTINUE AID IN INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE
REGION HEADING INTO THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THE ADDED
BIT OF MOISTURE AND FORCING...MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW A SCATTERED
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION TO CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.

THE PATTERN SHOULD START TO SHIFT BY THURSDAY.  A WEAKNESS IN THE
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD MOVE INTO OUR AREA...AS THE RIDGE AXIS
RETROGRADES.  MEANWHILE...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND PUSH A COLD FRONT
(MORE-OR-LESS IN NAME ONLY) SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BY THURSDAY.

IT LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT SHOULD ENTER OUR FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...THEN BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY AS IT
APPROACHES THE COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING.  THE FRONT WILL LIKELY
WAFFLE NORTH AND SOUTH A BIT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE TRAVERSE THE BOUNDARY.

DESPITE SOME TEMPORAL DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN DETERMINISTIC OUTPUT OF
THE MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS...ENSEMBLE MEMBERS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.  THAT
SAID...FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS RATHER HIGH THROUGH AT LEAST THE
END OF THE WEEK.

OUR GREATEST SHOT OF SEEING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY COME
FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE AREA AND CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR REGIONS CLOSER TO THE COAST.  I WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
ANY CONVECTION DURING THIS PERIOD GIVEN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
HOVERING AROUND 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS
FOR EARLY AUGUST.  SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS WILL CONTINUE TO REFINE THE
EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION OF ANY HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL.

THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE MAY TRY TO REBUILD FROM THE WEST BY SUNDAY...
ALLOWING THE FRONT TO WEAKEN...THEN DISSIPATE BY MONDAY. GIVEN LOWER
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AT THE END OF THE FORECAST...I WILL REFRAIN FROM
MAKING TOO MANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE DAY 6 AND 7 TIME FRAME.
/02/

MARINE...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS
STRETCHING EAST TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF STATES... COMBINED WITH A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH SHIFTING NORTHWARD OVER THE EXTREME EASTERN GULF
WILL HELP MAINTAIN A LIGHT TO MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE MARINE
AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. AS THE WEAK TROF OF LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS
NORTHWARD EXPECT BETTER RAIN CHANCES FOR MOST OF THE MARINE AREA
BEGINNING WED CONTINUING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL BE HIGHER NEAR THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE BEST COVERAGE
OCCURRING DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WELL OFFSHORE
AND NEAR THE COAST INCLUDING INLAND BAYS AND SOUNDS DURING THE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANCE IN SEAS IS
EXPECTED THROUGH FRI. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      75  95  76  92  77 /  20  40  40  40  40
PENSACOLA   78  95  78  91  78 /  20  40  40  40  30
DESTIN      80  94  80  89  80 /  20  40  40  50  30
EVERGREEN   75  96  75  94  75 /  20  40  40  40  40
WAYNESBORO  74  97  75  95  74 /  20  40  40  40  30
CAMDEN      75  97  75  95  74 /  30  40  40  40  30
CRESTVIEW   74  96  76  92  75 /  20  40  40  40  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR BALDWIN
     CENTRAL-BALDWIN COASTAL-BALDWIN INLAND-BUTLER-CHOCTAW-
     CLARKE-CONECUH-COVINGTON-CRENSHAW-ESCAMBIA-MOBILE CENTRAL-
     MOBILE COASTAL-MOBILE INLAND-MONROE-WASHINGTON-WILCOX.

FL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ESCAMBIA
     COASTAL-ESCAMBIA INLAND-OKALOOSA COASTAL-OKALOOSA INLAND-
     SANTA ROSA COASTAL-SANTA ROSA INLAND.

MS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR GEORGE-GREENE-
     PERRY-STONE-WAYNE.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 282031
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
331 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE OK/AR BORDER
STRETCHING EAST OVER THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF COAST
STATES WILL MOVE LITTLE THROUGH WED AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOSTLY OVER THE FL PENISULA EAST OF CEDAR KEY IS
PROGGED TO DRIFT NORTH OVER N FL AND LOWER GA THROUGH WED AFTERNOON
DRIFTING FURTHER WEST LATER IN THE EVENING. IN THE MID LEVELS
SLIGHTLY BETTER FORCING IS NOTED BY WED AS ANOTHER IMPULSE MOVES
SOUTH ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE TRACKING SOUTH OVER
CENTRAL AL BY MIDDAY. LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICT BETTER MOISTURE
FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA ALSO BY MIDDAY ON WED WITH PWATS RANGING
FROM 2.0 TO 2.2 INCHES. AS A RESULT EXPECT BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR WED BEGINNING BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. ALTHOUGH WEDNESDAY`S
COVERAGE WILL BE BETTER THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS BELIEVE MOST OF
THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS DUE TO MARGINAL
LAPSE RATES AND DEEPER MOISTURE ALOFT. WITH GOOD SURFACE HEATING
DURING THE DAY WE WILL LIKELY SEE AFTERNOON CAPES REACHING 3500 TO
4000 J/KG WHICH COULD HELP TRIGGER AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM MOST LIKELY WELL INLAND FROM THE COAST BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON.

AS FOR TEMPS FORECASTED HEAT INDICES LOOK TO RANGE FROM 105 TO 110
DEGREES FOR TOMORROW WITH MANY AREAS REACHING OR EXCEEDING THE 108
DEGREE THRESHOLD. AS A RESULT WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY
FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FOR WED BEGINNING AT 11 AM CDT WED
ENDING AT 7 PM CDT THU. TONIGHT`S LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S FOR
MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE MID TO UPPER 70S CLOSER TO THE COAST.
WEDNESDAY`S HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 90S INLAND AND
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S CLOSER TO THE COAST. 32/EE

THIS AFTERNOONS WET MICROBURST RISK REMAINS LOW.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEAK PERTURBATIONS...ROTATING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE...WILL CONTINUE AID IN INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE
REGION HEADING INTO THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THE ADDED
BIT OF MOISTURE AND FORCING...MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW A SCATTERED
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION TO CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.

THE PATTERN SHOULD START TO SHIFT BY THURSDAY.  A WEAKNESS IN THE
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD MOVE INTO OUR AREA...AS THE RIDGE AXIS
RETROGRADES.  MEANWHILE...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND PUSH A COLD FRONT
(MORE-OR-LESS IN NAME ONLY) SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BY THURSDAY.

IT LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT SHOULD ENTER OUR FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...THEN BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY AS IT
APPROACHES THE COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING.  THE FRONT WILL LIKELY
WAFFLE NORTH AND SOUTH A BIT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE TRAVERSE THE BOUNDARY.

DESPITE SOME TEMPORAL DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN DETERMINISTIC OUTPUT OF
THE MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS...ENSEMBLE MEMBERS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.  THAT
SAID...FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS RATHER HIGH THROUGH AT LEAST THE
END OF THE WEEK.

OUR GREATEST SHOT OF SEEING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY COME
FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE AREA AND CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR REGIONS CLOSER TO THE COAST.  I WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
ANY CONVECTION DURING THIS PERIOD GIVEN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
HOVERING AROUND 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS
FOR EARLY AUGUST.  SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS WILL CONTINUE TO REFINE THE
EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION OF ANY HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL.

THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE MAY TRY TO REBUILD FROM THE WEST BY SUNDAY...
ALLOWING THE FRONT TO WEAKEN...THEN DISSIPATE BY MONDAY. GIVEN LOWER
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AT THE END OF THE FORECAST...I WILL REFRAIN FROM
MAKING TOO MANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE DAY 6 AND 7 TIME FRAME.
/02/

&&

.MARINE...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS
STRETCHING EAST TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF STATES... COMBINED WITH A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH SHIFTING NORTHWARD OVER THE EXTREME EASTERN GULF
WILL HELP MAINTAIN A LIGHT TO MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE MARINE
AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. AS THE WEAK TROF OF LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS
NORTHWARD EXPECT BETTER RAIN CHANCES FOR MOST OF THE MARINE AREA
BEGINNING WED CONTINUING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL BE HIGHER NEAR THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE BEST COVERAGE
OCCURRING DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WELL OFFSHORE
AND NEAR THE COAST INCLUDING INLAND BAYS AND SOUNDS DURING THE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANCE IN SEAS IS
EXPECTED THROUGH FRI. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      75  95  76  92  77 /  20  40  40  40  40
PENSACOLA   78  95  78  91  78 /  20  40  40  40  30
DESTIN      80  94  80  89  80 /  20  40  40  50  30
EVERGREEN   75  96  75  94  75 /  20  40  40  40  40
WAYNESBORO  74  97  75  95  74 /  20  40  40  40  30
CAMDEN      75  97  75  95  74 /  30  40  40  40  30
CRESTVIEW   74  96  76  92  75 /  20  40  40  40  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR BALDWIN
     CENTRAL-BALDWIN COASTAL-BALDWIN INLAND-BUTLER-CHOCTAW-
     CLARKE-CONECUH-COVINGTON-CRENSHAW-ESCAMBIA-MOBILE CENTRAL-
     MOBILE COASTAL-MOBILE INLAND-MONROE-WASHINGTON-WILCOX.

FL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ESCAMBIA
     COASTAL-ESCAMBIA INLAND-OKALOOSA COASTAL-OKALOOSA INLAND-
     SANTA ROSA COASTAL-SANTA ROSA INLAND.

MS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR GEORGE-GREENE-
     PERRY-STONE-WAYNE.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM FORECASTER... EE
LONG TERM FORECASTER... BUTTS
PSU... EJ




000
FXUS64 KMOB 282031
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
331 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE OK/AR BORDER
STRETCHING EAST OVER THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF COAST
STATES WILL MOVE LITTLE THROUGH WED AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOSTLY OVER THE FL PENISULA EAST OF CEDAR KEY IS
PROGGED TO DRIFT NORTH OVER N FL AND LOWER GA THROUGH WED AFTERNOON
DRIFTING FURTHER WEST LATER IN THE EVENING. IN THE MID LEVELS
SLIGHTLY BETTER FORCING IS NOTED BY WED AS ANOTHER IMPULSE MOVES
SOUTH ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE TRACKING SOUTH OVER
CENTRAL AL BY MIDDAY. LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICT BETTER MOISTURE
FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA ALSO BY MIDDAY ON WED WITH PWATS RANGING
FROM 2.0 TO 2.2 INCHES. AS A RESULT EXPECT BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR WED BEGINNING BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. ALTHOUGH WEDNESDAY`S
COVERAGE WILL BE BETTER THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS BELIEVE MOST OF
THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS DUE TO MARGINAL
LAPSE RATES AND DEEPER MOISTURE ALOFT. WITH GOOD SURFACE HEATING
DURING THE DAY WE WILL LIKELY SEE AFTERNOON CAPES REACHING 3500 TO
4000 J/KG WHICH COULD HELP TRIGGER AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM MOST LIKELY WELL INLAND FROM THE COAST BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON.

AS FOR TEMPS FORECASTED HEAT INDICES LOOK TO RANGE FROM 105 TO 110
DEGREES FOR TOMORROW WITH MANY AREAS REACHING OR EXCEEDING THE 108
DEGREE THRESHOLD. AS A RESULT WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY
FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FOR WED BEGINNING AT 11 AM CDT WED
ENDING AT 7 PM CDT THU. TONIGHT`S LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S FOR
MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE MID TO UPPER 70S CLOSER TO THE COAST.
WEDNESDAY`S HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 90S INLAND AND
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S CLOSER TO THE COAST. 32/EE

THIS AFTERNOONS WET MICROBURST RISK REMAINS LOW.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEAK PERTURBATIONS...ROTATING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE...WILL CONTINUE AID IN INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE
REGION HEADING INTO THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THE ADDED
BIT OF MOISTURE AND FORCING...MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW A SCATTERED
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION TO CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.

THE PATTERN SHOULD START TO SHIFT BY THURSDAY.  A WEAKNESS IN THE
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD MOVE INTO OUR AREA...AS THE RIDGE AXIS
RETROGRADES.  MEANWHILE...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND PUSH A COLD FRONT
(MORE-OR-LESS IN NAME ONLY) SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BY THURSDAY.

IT LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT SHOULD ENTER OUR FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...THEN BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY AS IT
APPROACHES THE COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING.  THE FRONT WILL LIKELY
WAFFLE NORTH AND SOUTH A BIT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE TRAVERSE THE BOUNDARY.

DESPITE SOME TEMPORAL DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN DETERMINISTIC OUTPUT OF
THE MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS...ENSEMBLE MEMBERS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.  THAT
SAID...FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS RATHER HIGH THROUGH AT LEAST THE
END OF THE WEEK.

OUR GREATEST SHOT OF SEEING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY COME
FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE AREA AND CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR REGIONS CLOSER TO THE COAST.  I WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
ANY CONVECTION DURING THIS PERIOD GIVEN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
HOVERING AROUND 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS
FOR EARLY AUGUST.  SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS WILL CONTINUE TO REFINE THE
EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION OF ANY HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL.

THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE MAY TRY TO REBUILD FROM THE WEST BY SUNDAY...
ALLOWING THE FRONT TO WEAKEN...THEN DISSIPATE BY MONDAY. GIVEN LOWER
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AT THE END OF THE FORECAST...I WILL REFRAIN FROM
MAKING TOO MANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE DAY 6 AND 7 TIME FRAME.
/02/

&&

.MARINE...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS
STRETCHING EAST TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF STATES... COMBINED WITH A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH SHIFTING NORTHWARD OVER THE EXTREME EASTERN GULF
WILL HELP MAINTAIN A LIGHT TO MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE MARINE
AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. AS THE WEAK TROF OF LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS
NORTHWARD EXPECT BETTER RAIN CHANCES FOR MOST OF THE MARINE AREA
BEGINNING WED CONTINUING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL BE HIGHER NEAR THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE BEST COVERAGE
OCCURRING DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WELL OFFSHORE
AND NEAR THE COAST INCLUDING INLAND BAYS AND SOUNDS DURING THE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANCE IN SEAS IS
EXPECTED THROUGH FRI. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      75  95  76  92  77 /  20  40  40  40  40
PENSACOLA   78  95  78  91  78 /  20  40  40  40  30
DESTIN      80  94  80  89  80 /  20  40  40  50  30
EVERGREEN   75  96  75  94  75 /  20  40  40  40  40
WAYNESBORO  74  97  75  95  74 /  20  40  40  40  30
CAMDEN      75  97  75  95  74 /  30  40  40  40  30
CRESTVIEW   74  96  76  92  75 /  20  40  40  40  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR BALDWIN
     CENTRAL-BALDWIN COASTAL-BALDWIN INLAND-BUTLER-CHOCTAW-
     CLARKE-CONECUH-COVINGTON-CRENSHAW-ESCAMBIA-MOBILE CENTRAL-
     MOBILE COASTAL-MOBILE INLAND-MONROE-WASHINGTON-WILCOX.

FL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ESCAMBIA
     COASTAL-ESCAMBIA INLAND-OKALOOSA COASTAL-OKALOOSA INLAND-
     SANTA ROSA COASTAL-SANTA ROSA INLAND.

MS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR GEORGE-GREENE-
     PERRY-STONE-WAYNE.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM FORECASTER... EE
LONG TERM FORECASTER... BUTTS
PSU... EJ





000
FXUS64 KMOB 281734 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1234 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.AVIATION...
27.18Z TAF ISSUANCE...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 28.18Z. COULD
SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS MAINLY IN AND AROUND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THIS EVENING. GUSTY WINDS...MOSTLY VARIABLE BETWEEN 20 TO 30
KNOTS...MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY SOME OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. 32/EE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

SHORT TERM [TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT]...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS REMAINS STATIONARY THROUGH TONIGHT.
A STATIONARY WEAKLY ORGANIZED SURFACE TROUGH CREATED BY AN UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEX/FL REMAINS PRETTY MUCH
STATIONARY...ALSO. THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE THE FIRST TWO PERIODS OF
THE FORECAST IS HANDLING THE POOLS OF MOISTURE NORTH AND EAST OF THE
FA. THE POOLS TO THE EAST...FEEL WILL HEAD SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST...
MAYBE BRINGING AN INCREASE IN POPS TO EASTERN-MOST PORTIONS OF THE
MARINE FA TODAY. THE POOLS TO THE NORTH OF THE FA...FEEL THEY WILL
MOVE OVER THE FA TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THIS IS MORE IN-LINE WITH THE
NAM SOLUTION...SO WITH THE GREATER INSTABILITY FROM THE INCREASED
MOISTURE LEVELS...HAVE BUMPED TODAY`S POPS TOWARDS THE WETTER NAM AS
A RESULT. WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S
AGAIN DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE...HEAT INDICES TODAY ARE
EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE 103 TO 107 DEGREE RANGE.

TONIGHT...ANY ACTIVITY FIRING THIS AFTERNOON WILL LAST INTO THE
EVENING HOURS BEFORE WEAKENING. WITH A MORE MOIST AIRMASS EXPECTED
TO MOVE OVER THE FA...HAVE BUMPED OVERNIGHT TEMPS UP A BIT FROM THE
LOWS EXPECTED THIS MORNING. THIS MEANS OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE MID 70S. /16

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS PROGGED TO
REMAIN CENTERED OVER OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS. TO THE EAST OF THE DEEP
LAYER RIDGE...HIGH LEVEL TROF IS POSITIONED FROM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST...SOUTHWEST TO ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE
EAST TO SOUTHEAST GULF. AN ASSESSMENT OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
INDICATES A RETURN TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATIC NORMALS (PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES RANGING FROM 1.9-2.1 INCHES). EMBEDDED IN THE HIGH
LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN THE RIDGE TO THE WEST AND THE TROF TO
THE EAST...THE GLOBAL SPECTRAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
SHOWING A MID LEVEL IMPULSE PIVOTING SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN
ALABAMA/NORTHERN GEORGIA WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS FEATURE IS CARRIED
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY...APPROACHING THE CENTRAL GULF COAST BY
DAYBREAK THURSDAY MORNING. CONSIDERING THIS...COULD VERY WELL SEE A
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX TRACKING SOUTH SOUTHWEST AT AROUND 15 MPH MAINLY
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LOCAL AREA. TO REFLECT THIS...WILL
CARRY A CHANCE OF STORMS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING
INTO THE NIGHT. BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING ACTIVITY
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS CAN BE EXPECTED IN ANY OF THE STRONGER
STORMS. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME BRIEFLY SEVERE...CAPABLE OF LOCALLY
DAMAGING WINDS INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS STORMS USE UP
AVAILABLE INSTABILITY. AWAY FROM STORMS...DAYTIME HIGHS ARE FORECAST
TO RANGE FROM 93 TO 97. GRIDDED HIGHEST HEAT INDEX VALUES MOSTLY
RANGE FROM 105 TO 107...BUT SHOW THE RIVER VALLEYS POSSIBLY LIFTING
UP TO AROUND 108. SINCE THIS IS IN PERIOD 3...NO HEAT ADVISORY
ISSUANCE FOR WEDNESDAY ON THIS PACKAGE...BUT MAY CHANGE ON LATER
FORECASTS. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 70S INTERIOR TO UPPER 70S TO
AROUND 80 CLOSER TO THE BEACHES. /10

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS MODERATE

LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...SURFACE FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING
EAST OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS IS FORECAST TO SINK INTO THE
SOUTHEAST...WITH ITS WESTWARD EXTENSION BACK ACROSS SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA AND THE UPPER TEXAS COAST DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. THE
BOUNDARY LOOKS TO THEN STALL AND ONLY MEANDER SLIGHTLY NORTH/SOUTH AS
WEAK WAVES OF FRONTAL LOW PRESSURE TRACK ALONG IT FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAINING UNSEASONABLY HIGH
(2-2.25") ALONG THE WEAK SURFACE FRONT/TROF...THE LOCAL AREA LOOKS TO
REMAIN UNSETTLED WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS. RAINS COULD BECOME
LOCALLY HEAVY IN ANY OF THE STRONGER STORMS. OTHER STORM THREATS WILL
BE FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. WITH THE FRONT NEAR
BY...INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES...DAYTIME HIGHS TREND
LOWER INTO THE WEEKEND WITH NUMBERS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 80S TO
NEAR 90 OVER THE SOUTHEAST ZONES AND THE LOWER HALF OF THE 90S
ELSEWHERE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND BETTER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE BISECTS THE
LOCAL AREA...ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF I-65 INTO THE FIRST OF NEXT
WEEK...KEEPING HIGHER RAIN CHANCES AND MODIFIED HIGH TEMPERATURES
OVER THESE AREAS. LITTLE CHANGE IN OVERNIGHT LOWS...FORECAST IN THE
MID 70S INTERIOR TO UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 AT THE BEACHES DURING THE
MEDIUM RANGE. /10

AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE...GENERAL VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST. EXCEPTIONS BEING
MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON AND LAST INTO EVENING. /16

MARINE...A WEAKLY ORGANIZED SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEX/FL WILL MEANDER EASTWARD A BIT...ALLOWING THE LIGHT WESTERLY
FLOW TO BECOME MORE ORGANIZED AT TIMES WED THROUGH THU....WITH
MODERATE FLOW DURING THESE TIMES...MAINLY OVER OPEN WATERS. /16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      96  75  96  75  94 /  30  20  40  30  30
PENSACOLA   96  79  95  78  92 /  30  20  40  30  30
DESTIN      94  81  93  80  89 /  10  10  40  30  30
EVERGREEN   98  73  97  74  95 /  30  20  40  30  30
WAYNESBORO  97  74  97  75  96 /  30  20  40  30  30
CAMDEN      98  74  97  75  95 /  30  20  40  30  30
CRESTVIEW   99  75  97  76  94 /  30  20  40  30  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMOB 281734 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1234 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.AVIATION...
27.18Z TAF ISSUANCE...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 28.18Z. COULD
SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS MAINLY IN AND AROUND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THIS EVENING. GUSTY WINDS...MOSTLY VARIABLE BETWEEN 20 TO 30
KNOTS...MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY SOME OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. 32/EE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

SHORT TERM [TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT]...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS REMAINS STATIONARY THROUGH TONIGHT.
A STATIONARY WEAKLY ORGANIZED SURFACE TROUGH CREATED BY AN UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEX/FL REMAINS PRETTY MUCH
STATIONARY...ALSO. THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE THE FIRST TWO PERIODS OF
THE FORECAST IS HANDLING THE POOLS OF MOISTURE NORTH AND EAST OF THE
FA. THE POOLS TO THE EAST...FEEL WILL HEAD SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST...
MAYBE BRINGING AN INCREASE IN POPS TO EASTERN-MOST PORTIONS OF THE
MARINE FA TODAY. THE POOLS TO THE NORTH OF THE FA...FEEL THEY WILL
MOVE OVER THE FA TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THIS IS MORE IN-LINE WITH THE
NAM SOLUTION...SO WITH THE GREATER INSTABILITY FROM THE INCREASED
MOISTURE LEVELS...HAVE BUMPED TODAY`S POPS TOWARDS THE WETTER NAM AS
A RESULT. WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S
AGAIN DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE...HEAT INDICES TODAY ARE
EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE 103 TO 107 DEGREE RANGE.

TONIGHT...ANY ACTIVITY FIRING THIS AFTERNOON WILL LAST INTO THE
EVENING HOURS BEFORE WEAKENING. WITH A MORE MOIST AIRMASS EXPECTED
TO MOVE OVER THE FA...HAVE BUMPED OVERNIGHT TEMPS UP A BIT FROM THE
LOWS EXPECTED THIS MORNING. THIS MEANS OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE MID 70S. /16

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS PROGGED TO
REMAIN CENTERED OVER OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS. TO THE EAST OF THE DEEP
LAYER RIDGE...HIGH LEVEL TROF IS POSITIONED FROM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST...SOUTHWEST TO ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE
EAST TO SOUTHEAST GULF. AN ASSESSMENT OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
INDICATES A RETURN TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATIC NORMALS (PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES RANGING FROM 1.9-2.1 INCHES). EMBEDDED IN THE HIGH
LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN THE RIDGE TO THE WEST AND THE TROF TO
THE EAST...THE GLOBAL SPECTRAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
SHOWING A MID LEVEL IMPULSE PIVOTING SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN
ALABAMA/NORTHERN GEORGIA WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS FEATURE IS CARRIED
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY...APPROACHING THE CENTRAL GULF COAST BY
DAYBREAK THURSDAY MORNING. CONSIDERING THIS...COULD VERY WELL SEE A
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX TRACKING SOUTH SOUTHWEST AT AROUND 15 MPH MAINLY
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LOCAL AREA. TO REFLECT THIS...WILL
CARRY A CHANCE OF STORMS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING
INTO THE NIGHT. BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING ACTIVITY
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS CAN BE EXPECTED IN ANY OF THE STRONGER
STORMS. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME BRIEFLY SEVERE...CAPABLE OF LOCALLY
DAMAGING WINDS INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS STORMS USE UP
AVAILABLE INSTABILITY. AWAY FROM STORMS...DAYTIME HIGHS ARE FORECAST
TO RANGE FROM 93 TO 97. GRIDDED HIGHEST HEAT INDEX VALUES MOSTLY
RANGE FROM 105 TO 107...BUT SHOW THE RIVER VALLEYS POSSIBLY LIFTING
UP TO AROUND 108. SINCE THIS IS IN PERIOD 3...NO HEAT ADVISORY
ISSUANCE FOR WEDNESDAY ON THIS PACKAGE...BUT MAY CHANGE ON LATER
FORECASTS. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 70S INTERIOR TO UPPER 70S TO
AROUND 80 CLOSER TO THE BEACHES. /10

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS MODERATE

LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...SURFACE FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING
EAST OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS IS FORECAST TO SINK INTO THE
SOUTHEAST...WITH ITS WESTWARD EXTENSION BACK ACROSS SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA AND THE UPPER TEXAS COAST DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. THE
BOUNDARY LOOKS TO THEN STALL AND ONLY MEANDER SLIGHTLY NORTH/SOUTH AS
WEAK WAVES OF FRONTAL LOW PRESSURE TRACK ALONG IT FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAINING UNSEASONABLY HIGH
(2-2.25") ALONG THE WEAK SURFACE FRONT/TROF...THE LOCAL AREA LOOKS TO
REMAIN UNSETTLED WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS. RAINS COULD BECOME
LOCALLY HEAVY IN ANY OF THE STRONGER STORMS. OTHER STORM THREATS WILL
BE FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. WITH THE FRONT NEAR
BY...INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES...DAYTIME HIGHS TREND
LOWER INTO THE WEEKEND WITH NUMBERS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 80S TO
NEAR 90 OVER THE SOUTHEAST ZONES AND THE LOWER HALF OF THE 90S
ELSEWHERE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND BETTER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE BISECTS THE
LOCAL AREA...ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF I-65 INTO THE FIRST OF NEXT
WEEK...KEEPING HIGHER RAIN CHANCES AND MODIFIED HIGH TEMPERATURES
OVER THESE AREAS. LITTLE CHANGE IN OVERNIGHT LOWS...FORECAST IN THE
MID 70S INTERIOR TO UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 AT THE BEACHES DURING THE
MEDIUM RANGE. /10

AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE...GENERAL VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST. EXCEPTIONS BEING
MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON AND LAST INTO EVENING. /16

MARINE...A WEAKLY ORGANIZED SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEX/FL WILL MEANDER EASTWARD A BIT...ALLOWING THE LIGHT WESTERLY
FLOW TO BECOME MORE ORGANIZED AT TIMES WED THROUGH THU....WITH
MODERATE FLOW DURING THESE TIMES...MAINLY OVER OPEN WATERS. /16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      96  75  96  75  94 /  30  20  40  30  30
PENSACOLA   96  79  95  78  92 /  30  20  40  30  30
DESTIN      94  81  93  80  89 /  10  10  40  30  30
EVERGREEN   98  73  97  74  95 /  30  20  40  30  30
WAYNESBORO  97  74  97  75  96 /  30  20  40  30  30
CAMDEN      98  74  97  75  95 /  30  20  40  30  30
CRESTVIEW   99  75  97  76  94 /  30  20  40  30  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 281734 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1234 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.AVIATION...
27.18Z TAF ISSUANCE...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 28.18Z. COULD
SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS MAINLY IN AND AROUND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THIS EVENING. GUSTY WINDS...MOSTLY VARIABLE BETWEEN 20 TO 30
KNOTS...MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY SOME OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. 32/EE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

SHORT TERM [TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT]...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS REMAINS STATIONARY THROUGH TONIGHT.
A STATIONARY WEAKLY ORGANIZED SURFACE TROUGH CREATED BY AN UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEX/FL REMAINS PRETTY MUCH
STATIONARY...ALSO. THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE THE FIRST TWO PERIODS OF
THE FORECAST IS HANDLING THE POOLS OF MOISTURE NORTH AND EAST OF THE
FA. THE POOLS TO THE EAST...FEEL WILL HEAD SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST...
MAYBE BRINGING AN INCREASE IN POPS TO EASTERN-MOST PORTIONS OF THE
MARINE FA TODAY. THE POOLS TO THE NORTH OF THE FA...FEEL THEY WILL
MOVE OVER THE FA TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THIS IS MORE IN-LINE WITH THE
NAM SOLUTION...SO WITH THE GREATER INSTABILITY FROM THE INCREASED
MOISTURE LEVELS...HAVE BUMPED TODAY`S POPS TOWARDS THE WETTER NAM AS
A RESULT. WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S
AGAIN DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE...HEAT INDICES TODAY ARE
EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE 103 TO 107 DEGREE RANGE.

TONIGHT...ANY ACTIVITY FIRING THIS AFTERNOON WILL LAST INTO THE
EVENING HOURS BEFORE WEAKENING. WITH A MORE MOIST AIRMASS EXPECTED
TO MOVE OVER THE FA...HAVE BUMPED OVERNIGHT TEMPS UP A BIT FROM THE
LOWS EXPECTED THIS MORNING. THIS MEANS OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE MID 70S. /16

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS PROGGED TO
REMAIN CENTERED OVER OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS. TO THE EAST OF THE DEEP
LAYER RIDGE...HIGH LEVEL TROF IS POSITIONED FROM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST...SOUTHWEST TO ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE
EAST TO SOUTHEAST GULF. AN ASSESSMENT OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
INDICATES A RETURN TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATIC NORMALS (PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES RANGING FROM 1.9-2.1 INCHES). EMBEDDED IN THE HIGH
LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN THE RIDGE TO THE WEST AND THE TROF TO
THE EAST...THE GLOBAL SPECTRAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
SHOWING A MID LEVEL IMPULSE PIVOTING SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN
ALABAMA/NORTHERN GEORGIA WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS FEATURE IS CARRIED
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY...APPROACHING THE CENTRAL GULF COAST BY
DAYBREAK THURSDAY MORNING. CONSIDERING THIS...COULD VERY WELL SEE A
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX TRACKING SOUTH SOUTHWEST AT AROUND 15 MPH MAINLY
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LOCAL AREA. TO REFLECT THIS...WILL
CARRY A CHANCE OF STORMS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING
INTO THE NIGHT. BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING ACTIVITY
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS CAN BE EXPECTED IN ANY OF THE STRONGER
STORMS. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME BRIEFLY SEVERE...CAPABLE OF LOCALLY
DAMAGING WINDS INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS STORMS USE UP
AVAILABLE INSTABILITY. AWAY FROM STORMS...DAYTIME HIGHS ARE FORECAST
TO RANGE FROM 93 TO 97. GRIDDED HIGHEST HEAT INDEX VALUES MOSTLY
RANGE FROM 105 TO 107...BUT SHOW THE RIVER VALLEYS POSSIBLY LIFTING
UP TO AROUND 108. SINCE THIS IS IN PERIOD 3...NO HEAT ADVISORY
ISSUANCE FOR WEDNESDAY ON THIS PACKAGE...BUT MAY CHANGE ON LATER
FORECASTS. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 70S INTERIOR TO UPPER 70S TO
AROUND 80 CLOSER TO THE BEACHES. /10

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS MODERATE

LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...SURFACE FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING
EAST OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS IS FORECAST TO SINK INTO THE
SOUTHEAST...WITH ITS WESTWARD EXTENSION BACK ACROSS SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA AND THE UPPER TEXAS COAST DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. THE
BOUNDARY LOOKS TO THEN STALL AND ONLY MEANDER SLIGHTLY NORTH/SOUTH AS
WEAK WAVES OF FRONTAL LOW PRESSURE TRACK ALONG IT FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAINING UNSEASONABLY HIGH
(2-2.25") ALONG THE WEAK SURFACE FRONT/TROF...THE LOCAL AREA LOOKS TO
REMAIN UNSETTLED WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS. RAINS COULD BECOME
LOCALLY HEAVY IN ANY OF THE STRONGER STORMS. OTHER STORM THREATS WILL
BE FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. WITH THE FRONT NEAR
BY...INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES...DAYTIME HIGHS TREND
LOWER INTO THE WEEKEND WITH NUMBERS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 80S TO
NEAR 90 OVER THE SOUTHEAST ZONES AND THE LOWER HALF OF THE 90S
ELSEWHERE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND BETTER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE BISECTS THE
LOCAL AREA...ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF I-65 INTO THE FIRST OF NEXT
WEEK...KEEPING HIGHER RAIN CHANCES AND MODIFIED HIGH TEMPERATURES
OVER THESE AREAS. LITTLE CHANGE IN OVERNIGHT LOWS...FORECAST IN THE
MID 70S INTERIOR TO UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 AT THE BEACHES DURING THE
MEDIUM RANGE. /10

AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE...GENERAL VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST. EXCEPTIONS BEING
MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON AND LAST INTO EVENING. /16

MARINE...A WEAKLY ORGANIZED SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEX/FL WILL MEANDER EASTWARD A BIT...ALLOWING THE LIGHT WESTERLY
FLOW TO BECOME MORE ORGANIZED AT TIMES WED THROUGH THU....WITH
MODERATE FLOW DURING THESE TIMES...MAINLY OVER OPEN WATERS. /16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      96  75  96  75  94 /  30  20  40  30  30
PENSACOLA   96  79  95  78  92 /  30  20  40  30  30
DESTIN      94  81  93  80  89 /  10  10  40  30  30
EVERGREEN   98  73  97  74  95 /  30  20  40  30  30
WAYNESBORO  97  74  97  75  96 /  30  20  40  30  30
CAMDEN      98  74  97  75  95 /  30  20  40  30  30
CRESTVIEW   99  75  97  76  94 /  30  20  40  30  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMOB 280909
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
409 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM [TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT]...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS REMAINS STATIONARY THROUGH TONIGHT.
A STATIONARY WEAKLY ORGANIZED SURFACE TROUGH CREATED BY AN UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEX/FL REMAINS PRETTY MUCH
STATIONARY...ALSO. THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE THE FIRST TWO PERIODS OF
THE FORECAST IS HANDLING THE POOLS OF MOISTURE NORTH AND EAST OF THE
FA. THE POOLS TO THE EAST...FEEL WILL HEAD SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST...
MAYBE BRINGING AN INCREASE IN POPS TO EASTERN-MOST PORTIONS OF THE
MARINE FA TODAY. THE POOLS TO THE NORTH OF THE FA...FEEL THEY WILL
MOVE OVER THE FA TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THIS IS MORE IN-LINE WITH THE
NAM SOLUTION...SO WITH THE GREATER INSTABILITY FROM THE INCREASED
MOISTURE LEVELS...HAVE BUMPED TODAY`S POPS TOWARDS THE WETTER NAM AS
A RESULT. WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S
AGAIN DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE...HEAT INDICES TODAY ARE
EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE 103 TO 107 DEGREE RANGE.

TONIGHT...ANY ACTIVITY FIRING THIS AFTERNOON WILL LAST INTO THE
EVENING HOURS BEFORE WEAKENING. WITH A MORE MOIST AIRMASS EXPECTED
TO MOVE OVER THE FA...HAVE BUMPED OVERNIGHT TEMPS UP A BIT FROM THE
LOWS EXPECTED THIS MORNING. THIS MEANS OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE MID 70S. /16

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS PROGGED TO
REMAIN CENTERED OVER OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS. TO THE EAST OF THE DEEP
LAYER RIDGE...HIGH LEVEL TROF IS POSITIONED FROM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST...SOUTHWEST TO ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE
EAST TO SOUTHEAST GULF. AN ASSESSMENT OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
INDICATES A RETURN TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATIC NORMALS (PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES RANGING FROM 1.9-2.1 INCHES). EMBEDDED IN THE HIGH
LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN THE RIDGE TO THE WEST AND THE TROF TO
THE EAST...THE GLOBAL SPECTRAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
SHOWING A MID LEVEL IMPULSE PIVOTING SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN
ALABAMA/NORTHERN GEORGIA WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS FEATURE IS CARRIED
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY...APPROACHING THE CENTRAL GULF COAST BY
DAYBREAK THURSDAY MORNING. CONSIDERING THIS...COULD VERY WELL SEE A
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX TRACKING SOUTH SOUTHWEST AT AROUND 15 MPH MAINLY
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LOCAL AREA. TO REFLECT THIS...WILL
CARRY A CHANCE OF STORMS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING
INTO THE NIGHT. BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING ACTIVITY
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS CAN BE EXPECTED IN ANY OF THE STRONGER
STORMS. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME BRIEFLY SEVERE...CAPABLE OF LOCALLY
DAMAGING WINDS INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS STORMS USE UP
AVAILABLE INSTABILITY. AWAY FROM STORMS...DAYTIME HIGHS ARE FORECAST
TO RANGE FROM 93 TO 97. GRIDDED HIGHEST HEAT INDEX VALUES MOSTLY
RANGE FROM 105 TO 107...BUT SHOW THE RIVER VALLEYS POSSIBLY LIFTING
UP TO AROUND 108. SINCE THIS IS IN PERIOD 3...NO HEAT ADVISORY
ISSUANCE FOR WEDNESDAY ON THIS PACKAGE...BUT MAY CHANGE ON LATER
FORECASTS. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 70S INTERIOR TO UPPER 70S TO
AROUND 80 CLOSER TO THE BEACHES. /10

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS MODERATE

.LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...SURFACE FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING
EAST OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS IS FORECAST TO SINK INTO THE
SOUTHEAST...WITH ITS WESTWARD EXTENSION BACK ACROSS SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA AND THE UPPER TEXAS COAST DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. THE
BOUNDARY LOOKS TO THEN STALL AND ONLY MEANDER SLIGHTLY NORTH/SOUTH AS
WEAK WAVES OF FRONTAL LOW PRESSURE TRACK ALONG IT FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAINING UNSEASONABLY HIGH
(2-2.25") ALONG THE WEAK SURFACE FRONT/TROF...THE LOCAL AREA LOOKS TO
REMAIN UNSETTLED WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS. RAINS COULD BECOME
LOCALLY HEAVY IN ANY OF THE STRONGER STORMS. OTHER STORM THREATS WILL
BE FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. WITH THE FRONT NEAR
BY...INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES...DAYTIME HIGHS TREND
LOWER INTO THE WEEKEND WITH NUMBERS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 80S TO
NEAR 90 OVER THE SOUTHEAST ZONES AND THE LOWER HALF OF THE 90S
ELSEWHERE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND BETTER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE BISECTS THE
LOCAL AREA...ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF I-65 INTO THE FIRST OF NEXT
WEEK...KEEPING HIGHER RAIN CHANCES AND MODIFIED HIGH TEMPERATURES
OVER THESE AREAS. LITTLE CHANGE IN OVERNIGHT LOWS...FORECAST IN THE
MID 70S INTERIOR TO UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 AT THE BEACHES DURING THE
MEDIUM RANGE. /10

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE...GENERAL VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST. EXCEPTIONS BEING
MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON AND LAST INTO EVENING. /16

&&

.MARINE...A WEAKLY ORGANIZED SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEX/FL WILL MEANDER EASTWARD A BIT...ALLOWING THE LIGHT WESTERLY
FLOW TO BECOME MORE ORGANIZED AT TIMES WED THROUGH THU....WITH
MODERATE FLOW DURING THESE TIMES...MAINLY OVER OPEN WATERS. /16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      96  76  96  75  94 /  20  20  40  30  30
PENSACOLA   96  79  95  78  92 /  20  20  40  30  30
DESTIN      94  81  93  80  89 /  10  10  40  30  30
EVERGREEN   98  73  97  74  95 /  20  20  40  30  30
WAYNESBORO  97  74  97  75  96 /  20  20  40  30  30
CAMDEN      98  74  97  75  95 /  20  20  40  30  30
CRESTVIEW   99  75  97  76  94 /  20  20  40  30  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMOB 280909
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
409 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM [TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT]...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS REMAINS STATIONARY THROUGH TONIGHT.
A STATIONARY WEAKLY ORGANIZED SURFACE TROUGH CREATED BY AN UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEX/FL REMAINS PRETTY MUCH
STATIONARY...ALSO. THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE THE FIRST TWO PERIODS OF
THE FORECAST IS HANDLING THE POOLS OF MOISTURE NORTH AND EAST OF THE
FA. THE POOLS TO THE EAST...FEEL WILL HEAD SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST...
MAYBE BRINGING AN INCREASE IN POPS TO EASTERN-MOST PORTIONS OF THE
MARINE FA TODAY. THE POOLS TO THE NORTH OF THE FA...FEEL THEY WILL
MOVE OVER THE FA TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THIS IS MORE IN-LINE WITH THE
NAM SOLUTION...SO WITH THE GREATER INSTABILITY FROM THE INCREASED
MOISTURE LEVELS...HAVE BUMPED TODAY`S POPS TOWARDS THE WETTER NAM AS
A RESULT. WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S
AGAIN DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE...HEAT INDICES TODAY ARE
EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE 103 TO 107 DEGREE RANGE.

TONIGHT...ANY ACTIVITY FIRING THIS AFTERNOON WILL LAST INTO THE
EVENING HOURS BEFORE WEAKENING. WITH A MORE MOIST AIRMASS EXPECTED
TO MOVE OVER THE FA...HAVE BUMPED OVERNIGHT TEMPS UP A BIT FROM THE
LOWS EXPECTED THIS MORNING. THIS MEANS OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE MID 70S. /16

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS PROGGED TO
REMAIN CENTERED OVER OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS. TO THE EAST OF THE DEEP
LAYER RIDGE...HIGH LEVEL TROF IS POSITIONED FROM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST...SOUTHWEST TO ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE
EAST TO SOUTHEAST GULF. AN ASSESSMENT OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
INDICATES A RETURN TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATIC NORMALS (PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES RANGING FROM 1.9-2.1 INCHES). EMBEDDED IN THE HIGH
LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN THE RIDGE TO THE WEST AND THE TROF TO
THE EAST...THE GLOBAL SPECTRAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
SHOWING A MID LEVEL IMPULSE PIVOTING SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN
ALABAMA/NORTHERN GEORGIA WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS FEATURE IS CARRIED
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY...APPROACHING THE CENTRAL GULF COAST BY
DAYBREAK THURSDAY MORNING. CONSIDERING THIS...COULD VERY WELL SEE A
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX TRACKING SOUTH SOUTHWEST AT AROUND 15 MPH MAINLY
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LOCAL AREA. TO REFLECT THIS...WILL
CARRY A CHANCE OF STORMS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING
INTO THE NIGHT. BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING ACTIVITY
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS CAN BE EXPECTED IN ANY OF THE STRONGER
STORMS. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME BRIEFLY SEVERE...CAPABLE OF LOCALLY
DAMAGING WINDS INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS STORMS USE UP
AVAILABLE INSTABILITY. AWAY FROM STORMS...DAYTIME HIGHS ARE FORECAST
TO RANGE FROM 93 TO 97. GRIDDED HIGHEST HEAT INDEX VALUES MOSTLY
RANGE FROM 105 TO 107...BUT SHOW THE RIVER VALLEYS POSSIBLY LIFTING
UP TO AROUND 108. SINCE THIS IS IN PERIOD 3...NO HEAT ADVISORY
ISSUANCE FOR WEDNESDAY ON THIS PACKAGE...BUT MAY CHANGE ON LATER
FORECASTS. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 70S INTERIOR TO UPPER 70S TO
AROUND 80 CLOSER TO THE BEACHES. /10

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS MODERATE

.LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...SURFACE FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING
EAST OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS IS FORECAST TO SINK INTO THE
SOUTHEAST...WITH ITS WESTWARD EXTENSION BACK ACROSS SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA AND THE UPPER TEXAS COAST DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. THE
BOUNDARY LOOKS TO THEN STALL AND ONLY MEANDER SLIGHTLY NORTH/SOUTH AS
WEAK WAVES OF FRONTAL LOW PRESSURE TRACK ALONG IT FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAINING UNSEASONABLY HIGH
(2-2.25") ALONG THE WEAK SURFACE FRONT/TROF...THE LOCAL AREA LOOKS TO
REMAIN UNSETTLED WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS. RAINS COULD BECOME
LOCALLY HEAVY IN ANY OF THE STRONGER STORMS. OTHER STORM THREATS WILL
BE FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. WITH THE FRONT NEAR
BY...INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES...DAYTIME HIGHS TREND
LOWER INTO THE WEEKEND WITH NUMBERS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 80S TO
NEAR 90 OVER THE SOUTHEAST ZONES AND THE LOWER HALF OF THE 90S
ELSEWHERE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND BETTER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE BISECTS THE
LOCAL AREA...ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF I-65 INTO THE FIRST OF NEXT
WEEK...KEEPING HIGHER RAIN CHANCES AND MODIFIED HIGH TEMPERATURES
OVER THESE AREAS. LITTLE CHANGE IN OVERNIGHT LOWS...FORECAST IN THE
MID 70S INTERIOR TO UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 AT THE BEACHES DURING THE
MEDIUM RANGE. /10

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE...GENERAL VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST. EXCEPTIONS BEING
MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON AND LAST INTO EVENING. /16

&&

.MARINE...A WEAKLY ORGANIZED SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEX/FL WILL MEANDER EASTWARD A BIT...ALLOWING THE LIGHT WESTERLY
FLOW TO BECOME MORE ORGANIZED AT TIMES WED THROUGH THU....WITH
MODERATE FLOW DURING THESE TIMES...MAINLY OVER OPEN WATERS. /16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      96  76  96  75  94 /  20  20  40  30  30
PENSACOLA   96  79  95  78  92 /  20  20  40  30  30
DESTIN      94  81  93  80  89 /  10  10  40  30  30
EVERGREEN   98  73  97  74  95 /  20  20  40  30  30
WAYNESBORO  97  74  97  75  96 /  20  20  40  30  30
CAMDEN      98  74  97  75  95 /  20  20  40  30  30
CRESTVIEW   99  75  97  76  94 /  20  20  40  30  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 280452
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1152 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.UPDATE...ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER INTERIOR SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
ALABAMA HAVE DISSIPATED ONLY IN THE PAST HOUR OR SO...AND FINALLY NO
ECHOES ARE NOTED ON AREA RADARS. LEFT OVER BOUNDARIES COULD PROVIDE A
FOCUS FOR ANOTHER ISOLATED SHOWER OVERNIGHT...BUT WITHOUT DAYTIME
HEATING AND INSTABILITY...OPTED TO REMOVE POPS FROM FCST FOR THE
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE FCST LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE...LOW TEMPS REACHING
THE LOW TO MID 70S STILL LOOKING ON TRACK. NO OTHER UPDATES. 12/DS

&&

.AVIATION...28/06Z TAF ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MAINLY SCATTERED MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WITH NO CIGS EXPECTED. SFC
WINDS LIGHT NORTHERLY OR VARIABLE OVERNIGHT...BECOMING LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY
AFTER SUNRISE TUESDAY...THEN MORE SOUTHWESTERLY (ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
COAST) BY MID MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. 12/DS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LATEST RADAR LOOPS CONTINUE TO SHOW A FEW POPUP SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING OVER INLAND AREAS GENERALLY EAST OF THE I-65
CORRIDOR. THIS PRECIP SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED AND WILL LIKELY DIE
QUICKLY BY EARLY THIS EVENING. FURTHER SOUTH A WELL DEFINED SEABREEZE
NEAR THE COAST WILL MOVE INLAND REACHING THE AL/NWFL BORDER
STRETCHING WEST TO NEAR WIGGINS EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS BOUNDARY
COULD ALSO SPARK A FEW MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS FURTHER
SOUTH GENERALLY ALONG A LINE STRETCHING FROM ANDALUSIA AL TO WIGGINDS
MS.

OTHERWISE...AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
STATIONARY OVER THE LOWER PLAINS STATES STRETCHING EAST OVER THE
LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF STATES THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON.
AT THE SFC A WEAK TROF IS STILL LOCATED OVER CENTRAL FL STRETCHING
WEST OVER THE EASTERN GULF PROGGED TO SHIFT NORTHWARD REACHING THE
FL BIG BEND REGION AND THE NORTHEAST GULF THROUGH EARLY TUE NIGHT.
SILL DON`T SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT LIFT FOR BETTER
COVERAGE THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT WE CONTINUE WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM FOR MOST INLAND
AREAS GENERALLY NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR FOR TUE AFTERNOON. ANY
CONVECTION THAT DOES FORM ON TUE SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED WITH LITTLE
TO NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS.

AS FOR TEMPS WILL SEE HEAT INDICES RISE TO THE 104 TO 107 FOR MOST
AREAS TOMORROW THOUGH REMAIN BELOW THE 108 CRITICAL THRESHOLD DUE TO
BETTER MIXING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER BY AFTERNOON. SOME ISOLATED
SPOTS MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE OKALOOSA COUNTY FL
NEAR CRESTVIEW COULD REACH 108 FOR A FEW HOURS EARLY TUE AFTERNOON.
FOR LOWS TONIGHT WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE COOLER MAV GUIDANCE MOSTLY
DUE TO PERSISTENCE AND THE LACK OF CLOUDS. FOR TOMORROW WILL USE A
BLEND OF THE MAV AND MET WHICH IS MORE CONSISTENT WITH OTHER WFOS.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 70S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS
AND THE MID 70S CLOSER TO THE COAST. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE A BIT
WARMER THAN TODAY REACHING THE UPPER 90S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND
THE MID 90S CLOSER TO THE COAST. 32/EE

THIS AFTERNOONS WET MICROBURST RISK REMAINS LOW.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER MID-AMERICA AS WE HEAD
TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. GIVEN (RELATIVELY) DRY ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION...EXPECT THE HEAT TO PROVIDE THE
GREATEST IMPACT WEATHER-WISE. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RISE
INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 90S ACROSS THE REGION. THESE VALUES...WHEN
COMBINED WITH AFTERNOON DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S... WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN HEAT INDEX VALUES HOVERING AROUND 105 (GIVE-OR- TAKE). IT`S
STILL TOO EARLY TO DISCERN WHETHER OR NOT A HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE
NEEDED...BUT WE`LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS IN LATER FORECASTS.

AS FAR AS RELIEF FROM THE HEAT...WEAK PERTURBATIONS ROTATING INTO
OUR AREA AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH
FORCING TO GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED SOMEWHAT BY A LINGERING
DRY AIRMASS THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER (AGAIN...RELATIVELY
SPEAKING).

CONDITIONS WILL START TO CHANGE TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.  THE
UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO START RETROGRADING AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PROGRESSES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW A WEAKNESS
IN THE UPPER RIDGE TO MOVE INTO OUR AREA...AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES
SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE MID-SOUTH FOR THURSDAY.  LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
SHOULD GRADUALLY DEEPEN WHEN THIS OCCURS...AND WITH THE APPROACH OF
INCREASED SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING...I EXPECT AN INCREASE IN
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE HEADING TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

IT LOOKS LIKE WE`LL SEE THE FRONT MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
BEFORE STALLING/WEAKENING THIS WEEKEND AS THE DAMPENING UPPER TROUGH
HEADS INTO THE ATLANTIC.  THERE MIGHT BE ENOUGH UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT
TO PUSH THE FRONT BRIEFLY OFFSHORE...BEFORE IT WAFFLES BACK
NORTHWARD AND DISSIPATES.

MEDIUM-RANGE ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A WEAKENESS IN THE UPPER-RIDGE SHOULD
CONTINUE EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO OUR AREA THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.  CONFIDENCE...HOWEVER... IS LOW IN THE POSITION/STRENGTH OF
ANY SORT OF UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHINESS IN OUR REGION.  AS SUCH...I`M
RELUCTANT TO MAKE TOO MANY WHOLESALE CHANGES TO THE ODDS OF SEEING
RAIN IN THE DAY 5-7 TIME FRAME.  REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT NUMBERS...
IT LOOKS LIKE OUR BEST SHOT OF SEEING RAIN WILL LIKELY COME FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY.

IF THERE IS AN UP SIDE TO THE ANTICIPATION OF INCREASED CLOUD COVER
AND RAIN CHANCES...IT`S LOWER HEAT INDICES AS WE HEAD TOWARD NEXT
WEEEKND. /02/

MARINE...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOSTLY OVER THE EAST CENTRAL
GULF WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL GULF STATES
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME
BETTER DEVELOPED WITH THIS PATTERN BY MID WEEK. OTHERWISE...A LIGHT
TO MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH
LATE IN THE WEEK AS A BROAD UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS OVER MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN GULF AND CENTRAL GULF STATES. BETTER WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE
LIKELY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS NEAR THE
COAST INCLUDING INLAND BAYS AND SOUNDS AND DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS FROM THE COAST TO WELL OFFSHORE. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      95  72  96  75  95 /  05  05  10  10  30
PENSACOLA   96  76  98  78  94 /  05  05  10  10  40
DESTIN      95  79  94  80  93 /  05  05  10  10  40
EVERGREEN   97  70  99  74  97 /  05  20  20  20  30
WAYNESBORO  97  72  98  74  97 /  05  20  20  20  30
CAMDEN      97  71  99  74  97 /  05  20  20  20  30
CRESTVIEW   98  70 100  75  97 /  05  10  20  20  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 280452
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1152 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.UPDATE...ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER INTERIOR SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
ALABAMA HAVE DISSIPATED ONLY IN THE PAST HOUR OR SO...AND FINALLY NO
ECHOES ARE NOTED ON AREA RADARS. LEFT OVER BOUNDARIES COULD PROVIDE A
FOCUS FOR ANOTHER ISOLATED SHOWER OVERNIGHT...BUT WITHOUT DAYTIME
HEATING AND INSTABILITY...OPTED TO REMOVE POPS FROM FCST FOR THE
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE FCST LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE...LOW TEMPS REACHING
THE LOW TO MID 70S STILL LOOKING ON TRACK. NO OTHER UPDATES. 12/DS

&&

.AVIATION...28/06Z TAF ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MAINLY SCATTERED MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WITH NO CIGS EXPECTED. SFC
WINDS LIGHT NORTHERLY OR VARIABLE OVERNIGHT...BECOMING LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY
AFTER SUNRISE TUESDAY...THEN MORE SOUTHWESTERLY (ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
COAST) BY MID MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. 12/DS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LATEST RADAR LOOPS CONTINUE TO SHOW A FEW POPUP SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING OVER INLAND AREAS GENERALLY EAST OF THE I-65
CORRIDOR. THIS PRECIP SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED AND WILL LIKELY DIE
QUICKLY BY EARLY THIS EVENING. FURTHER SOUTH A WELL DEFINED SEABREEZE
NEAR THE COAST WILL MOVE INLAND REACHING THE AL/NWFL BORDER
STRETCHING WEST TO NEAR WIGGINS EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS BOUNDARY
COULD ALSO SPARK A FEW MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS FURTHER
SOUTH GENERALLY ALONG A LINE STRETCHING FROM ANDALUSIA AL TO WIGGINDS
MS.

OTHERWISE...AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
STATIONARY OVER THE LOWER PLAINS STATES STRETCHING EAST OVER THE
LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF STATES THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON.
AT THE SFC A WEAK TROF IS STILL LOCATED OVER CENTRAL FL STRETCHING
WEST OVER THE EASTERN GULF PROGGED TO SHIFT NORTHWARD REACHING THE
FL BIG BEND REGION AND THE NORTHEAST GULF THROUGH EARLY TUE NIGHT.
SILL DON`T SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT LIFT FOR BETTER
COVERAGE THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT WE CONTINUE WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM FOR MOST INLAND
AREAS GENERALLY NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR FOR TUE AFTERNOON. ANY
CONVECTION THAT DOES FORM ON TUE SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED WITH LITTLE
TO NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS.

AS FOR TEMPS WILL SEE HEAT INDICES RISE TO THE 104 TO 107 FOR MOST
AREAS TOMORROW THOUGH REMAIN BELOW THE 108 CRITICAL THRESHOLD DUE TO
BETTER MIXING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER BY AFTERNOON. SOME ISOLATED
SPOTS MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE OKALOOSA COUNTY FL
NEAR CRESTVIEW COULD REACH 108 FOR A FEW HOURS EARLY TUE AFTERNOON.
FOR LOWS TONIGHT WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE COOLER MAV GUIDANCE MOSTLY
DUE TO PERSISTENCE AND THE LACK OF CLOUDS. FOR TOMORROW WILL USE A
BLEND OF THE MAV AND MET WHICH IS MORE CONSISTENT WITH OTHER WFOS.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 70S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS
AND THE MID 70S CLOSER TO THE COAST. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE A BIT
WARMER THAN TODAY REACHING THE UPPER 90S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND
THE MID 90S CLOSER TO THE COAST. 32/EE

THIS AFTERNOONS WET MICROBURST RISK REMAINS LOW.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER MID-AMERICA AS WE HEAD
TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. GIVEN (RELATIVELY) DRY ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION...EXPECT THE HEAT TO PROVIDE THE
GREATEST IMPACT WEATHER-WISE. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RISE
INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 90S ACROSS THE REGION. THESE VALUES...WHEN
COMBINED WITH AFTERNOON DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S... WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN HEAT INDEX VALUES HOVERING AROUND 105 (GIVE-OR- TAKE). IT`S
STILL TOO EARLY TO DISCERN WHETHER OR NOT A HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE
NEEDED...BUT WE`LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS IN LATER FORECASTS.

AS FAR AS RELIEF FROM THE HEAT...WEAK PERTURBATIONS ROTATING INTO
OUR AREA AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH
FORCING TO GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED SOMEWHAT BY A LINGERING
DRY AIRMASS THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER (AGAIN...RELATIVELY
SPEAKING).

CONDITIONS WILL START TO CHANGE TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.  THE
UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO START RETROGRADING AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PROGRESSES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW A WEAKNESS
IN THE UPPER RIDGE TO MOVE INTO OUR AREA...AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES
SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE MID-SOUTH FOR THURSDAY.  LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
SHOULD GRADUALLY DEEPEN WHEN THIS OCCURS...AND WITH THE APPROACH OF
INCREASED SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING...I EXPECT AN INCREASE IN
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE HEADING TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

IT LOOKS LIKE WE`LL SEE THE FRONT MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
BEFORE STALLING/WEAKENING THIS WEEKEND AS THE DAMPENING UPPER TROUGH
HEADS INTO THE ATLANTIC.  THERE MIGHT BE ENOUGH UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT
TO PUSH THE FRONT BRIEFLY OFFSHORE...BEFORE IT WAFFLES BACK
NORTHWARD AND DISSIPATES.

MEDIUM-RANGE ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A WEAKENESS IN THE UPPER-RIDGE SHOULD
CONTINUE EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO OUR AREA THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.  CONFIDENCE...HOWEVER... IS LOW IN THE POSITION/STRENGTH OF
ANY SORT OF UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHINESS IN OUR REGION.  AS SUCH...I`M
RELUCTANT TO MAKE TOO MANY WHOLESALE CHANGES TO THE ODDS OF SEEING
RAIN IN THE DAY 5-7 TIME FRAME.  REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT NUMBERS...
IT LOOKS LIKE OUR BEST SHOT OF SEEING RAIN WILL LIKELY COME FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY.

IF THERE IS AN UP SIDE TO THE ANTICIPATION OF INCREASED CLOUD COVER
AND RAIN CHANCES...IT`S LOWER HEAT INDICES AS WE HEAD TOWARD NEXT
WEEEKND. /02/

MARINE...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOSTLY OVER THE EAST CENTRAL
GULF WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL GULF STATES
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME
BETTER DEVELOPED WITH THIS PATTERN BY MID WEEK. OTHERWISE...A LIGHT
TO MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH
LATE IN THE WEEK AS A BROAD UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS OVER MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN GULF AND CENTRAL GULF STATES. BETTER WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE
LIKELY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS NEAR THE
COAST INCLUDING INLAND BAYS AND SOUNDS AND DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS FROM THE COAST TO WELL OFFSHORE. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      95  72  96  75  95 /  05  05  10  10  30
PENSACOLA   96  76  98  78  94 /  05  05  10  10  40
DESTIN      95  79  94  80  93 /  05  05  10  10  40
EVERGREEN   97  70  99  74  97 /  05  20  20  20  30
WAYNESBORO  97  72  98  74  97 /  05  20  20  20  30
CAMDEN      97  71  99  74  97 /  05  20  20  20  30
CRESTVIEW   98  70 100  75  97 /  05  10  20  20  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMOB 272100
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
400 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LATEST RADAR LOOPS CONTINUE TO SHOW A FEW POPUP SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING OVER INLAND AREAS GENERALLY EAST OF THE I-65
CORRIDOR. THIS PRECIP SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED AND WILL LIKELY DIE
QUICKLY BY EARLY THIS EVENING. FURTHER SOUTH A WELL DEFINED SEABREEZE
NEAR THE COAST WILL MOVE INLAND REACHING THE AL/NWFL BORDER
STRETCHING WEST TO NEAR WIGGINS EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS BOUNDARY
COULD ALSO SPARK A FEW MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS FURTHER
SOUTH GENERALLY ALONG A LINE STRETCHING FROM ANDALUSIA AL TO WIGGINDS
MS.

OTHERWISE...AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
STATIONARY OVER THE LOWER PLAINS STATES STRETCHING EAST OVER THE
LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF STATES THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON.
AT THE SFC A WEAK TROF IS STILL LOCATED OVER CENTRAL FL STRETCHING
WEST OVER THE EASTERN GULF PROGGED TO SHIFT NORTHWARD REACHING THE
FL BIG BEND REGION AND THE NORTHEAST GULF THROUGH EARLY TUE NIGHT.
SILL DON`T SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT LIFT FOR BETTER
COVERAGE THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT WE CONTINUE WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM FOR MOST INLAND
AREAS GENERALLY NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR FOR TUE AFTERNOON. ANY
CONVECTION THAT DOES FORM ON TUE SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED WITH LITTLE
TO NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS.

AS FOR TEMPS WILL SEE HEAT INDICES RISE TO THE 104 TO 107 FOR MOST
AREAS TOMORROW THOUGH REMAIN BELOW THE 108 CRITICAL THRESHOLD DUE TO
BETTER MIXING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER BY AFTERNOON. SOME ISOLATED
SPOTS MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE OKALOOSA COUNTY FL
NEAR CRESTVIEW COULD REACH 108 FOR A FEW HOURS EARLY TUE AFTERNOON.
FOR LOWS TONIGHT WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE COOLER MAV GUIDANCE MOSTLY
DUE TO PERSISTENCE AND THE LACK OF CLOUDS. FOR TOMORROW WILL USE A
BLEND OF THE MAV AND MET WHICH IS MORE CONSISTENT WITH OTHER WFOS.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 70S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS
AND THE MID 70S CLOSER TO THE COAST. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE A BIT
WARMER THAN TODAY REACHING THE UPPER 90S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND
THE MID 90S CLOSER TO THE COAST. 32/EE

THIS AFTERNOONS WET MICROBURST RISK REMAINS LOW.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER MID-AMERICA AS WE HEAD
TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. GIVEN (RELATIVELY) DRY ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION...EXPECT THE HEAT TO PROVIDE THE
GREATEST IMPACT WEATHER-WISE. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RISE
INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 90S ACROSS THE REGION. THESE VALUES...WHEN
COMBINED WITH AFTERNOON DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S... WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN HEAT INDEX VALUES HOVERING AROUND 105 (GIVE-OR- TAKE). IT`S
STILL TOO EARLY TO DISCERN WHETHER OR NOT A HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE
NEEDED...BUT WE`LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS IN LATER FORECASTS.

AS FAR AS RELIEF FROM THE HEAT...WEAK PERTURBATIONS ROTATING INTO
OUR AREA AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH
FORCING TO GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED SOMEWHAT BY A LINGERING
DRY AIRMASS THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER (AGAIN...RELATIVELY
SPEAKING).

CONDITIONS WILL START TO CHANGE TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.  THE
UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO START RETROGRADING AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PROGRESSES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW A WEAKNESS
IN THE UPPER RIDGE TO MOVE INTO OUR AREA...AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES
SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE MID-SOUTH FOR THURSDAY.  LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
SHOULD GRADUALLY DEEPEN WHEN THIS OCCURS...AND WITH THE APPROACH OF
INCREASED SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING...I EXPECT AN INCREASE IN
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE HEADING TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

IT LOOKS LIKE WE`LL SEE THE FRONT MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
BEFORE STALLING/WEAKENING THIS WEEKEND AS THE DAMPENING UPPER TROUGH
HEADS INTO THE ATLANTIC.  THERE MIGHT BE ENOUGH UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT
TO PUSH THE FRONT BRIEFLY OFFSHORE...BEFORE IT WAFFLES BACK
NORTHWARD AND DISSIPATES.

MEDIUM-RANGE ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A WEAKENESS IN THE UPPER-RIDGE SHOULD
CONTINUE EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO OUR AREA THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.  CONFIDENCE...HOWEVER... IS LOW IN THE POSITION/STRENGTH OF
ANY SORT OF UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHINESS IN OUR REGION.  AS SUCH...I`M
RELUCTANT TO MAKE TOO MANY WHOLESALE CHANGES TO THE ODDS OF SEEING
RAIN IN THE DAY 5-7 TIME FRAME.  REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT NUMBERS...
IT LOOKS LIKE OUR BEST SHOT OF SEEING RAIN WILL LIKELY COME FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY.

IF THERE IS AN UP SIDE TO THE ANTICIPATION OF INCREASED CLOUD COVER
AND RAIN CHANCES...IT`S LOWER HEAT INDICES AS WE HEAD TOWARD NEXT
WEEEKND. /02/


&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOSTLY OVER THE EAST CENTRAL
GULF WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL GULF STATES
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME
BETTER DEVELOPED WITH THIS PATTERN BY MID WEEK. OTHERWISE...A LIGHT
TO MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH
LATE IN THE WEEK AS A BROAD UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS OVER MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN GULF AND CENTRAL GULF STATES. BETTER WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE
LIKELY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS NEAR THE
COAST INCLUDING INLAND BAYS AND SOUNDS AND DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS FROM THE COAST TO WELL OFFSHORE. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      72  96  75  95  76 /  05  10  10  30  30
PENSACOLA   76  98  78  94  78 /  05  10  10  40  30
DESTIN      79  94  80  93  80 /  05  10  10  40  30
EVERGREEN   70  99  74  97  75 /  20  20  20  30  30
WAYNESBORO  72  98  74  97  75 /  20  20  20  30  30
CAMDEN      71  99  74  97  76 /  20  20  20  30  30
CRESTVIEW   70 100  75  97  76 /  10  20  20  40  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM FORECASTER... EE
LONG TERM FORECASTER... BUTTS
PSU... RR





000
FXUS64 KMOB 272100
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
400 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LATEST RADAR LOOPS CONTINUE TO SHOW A FEW POPUP SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING OVER INLAND AREAS GENERALLY EAST OF THE I-65
CORRIDOR. THIS PRECIP SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED AND WILL LIKELY DIE
QUICKLY BY EARLY THIS EVENING. FURTHER SOUTH A WELL DEFINED SEABREEZE
NEAR THE COAST WILL MOVE INLAND REACHING THE AL/NWFL BORDER
STRETCHING WEST TO NEAR WIGGINS EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS BOUNDARY
COULD ALSO SPARK A FEW MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS FURTHER
SOUTH GENERALLY ALONG A LINE STRETCHING FROM ANDALUSIA AL TO WIGGINDS
MS.

OTHERWISE...AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
STATIONARY OVER THE LOWER PLAINS STATES STRETCHING EAST OVER THE
LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF STATES THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON.
AT THE SFC A WEAK TROF IS STILL LOCATED OVER CENTRAL FL STRETCHING
WEST OVER THE EASTERN GULF PROGGED TO SHIFT NORTHWARD REACHING THE
FL BIG BEND REGION AND THE NORTHEAST GULF THROUGH EARLY TUE NIGHT.
SILL DON`T SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT LIFT FOR BETTER
COVERAGE THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT WE CONTINUE WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM FOR MOST INLAND
AREAS GENERALLY NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR FOR TUE AFTERNOON. ANY
CONVECTION THAT DOES FORM ON TUE SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED WITH LITTLE
TO NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS.

AS FOR TEMPS WILL SEE HEAT INDICES RISE TO THE 104 TO 107 FOR MOST
AREAS TOMORROW THOUGH REMAIN BELOW THE 108 CRITICAL THRESHOLD DUE TO
BETTER MIXING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER BY AFTERNOON. SOME ISOLATED
SPOTS MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE OKALOOSA COUNTY FL
NEAR CRESTVIEW COULD REACH 108 FOR A FEW HOURS EARLY TUE AFTERNOON.
FOR LOWS TONIGHT WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE COOLER MAV GUIDANCE MOSTLY
DUE TO PERSISTENCE AND THE LACK OF CLOUDS. FOR TOMORROW WILL USE A
BLEND OF THE MAV AND MET WHICH IS MORE CONSISTENT WITH OTHER WFOS.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 70S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS
AND THE MID 70S CLOSER TO THE COAST. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE A BIT
WARMER THAN TODAY REACHING THE UPPER 90S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND
THE MID 90S CLOSER TO THE COAST. 32/EE

THIS AFTERNOONS WET MICROBURST RISK REMAINS LOW.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER MID-AMERICA AS WE HEAD
TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. GIVEN (RELATIVELY) DRY ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION...EXPECT THE HEAT TO PROVIDE THE
GREATEST IMPACT WEATHER-WISE. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RISE
INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 90S ACROSS THE REGION. THESE VALUES...WHEN
COMBINED WITH AFTERNOON DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S... WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN HEAT INDEX VALUES HOVERING AROUND 105 (GIVE-OR- TAKE). IT`S
STILL TOO EARLY TO DISCERN WHETHER OR NOT A HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE
NEEDED...BUT WE`LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS IN LATER FORECASTS.

AS FAR AS RELIEF FROM THE HEAT...WEAK PERTURBATIONS ROTATING INTO
OUR AREA AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH
FORCING TO GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED SOMEWHAT BY A LINGERING
DRY AIRMASS THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER (AGAIN...RELATIVELY
SPEAKING).

CONDITIONS WILL START TO CHANGE TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.  THE
UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO START RETROGRADING AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PROGRESSES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW A WEAKNESS
IN THE UPPER RIDGE TO MOVE INTO OUR AREA...AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES
SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE MID-SOUTH FOR THURSDAY.  LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
SHOULD GRADUALLY DEEPEN WHEN THIS OCCURS...AND WITH THE APPROACH OF
INCREASED SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING...I EXPECT AN INCREASE IN
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE HEADING TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

IT LOOKS LIKE WE`LL SEE THE FRONT MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
BEFORE STALLING/WEAKENING THIS WEEKEND AS THE DAMPENING UPPER TROUGH
HEADS INTO THE ATLANTIC.  THERE MIGHT BE ENOUGH UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT
TO PUSH THE FRONT BRIEFLY OFFSHORE...BEFORE IT WAFFLES BACK
NORTHWARD AND DISSIPATES.

MEDIUM-RANGE ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A WEAKENESS IN THE UPPER-RIDGE SHOULD
CONTINUE EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO OUR AREA THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.  CONFIDENCE...HOWEVER... IS LOW IN THE POSITION/STRENGTH OF
ANY SORT OF UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHINESS IN OUR REGION.  AS SUCH...I`M
RELUCTANT TO MAKE TOO MANY WHOLESALE CHANGES TO THE ODDS OF SEEING
RAIN IN THE DAY 5-7 TIME FRAME.  REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT NUMBERS...
IT LOOKS LIKE OUR BEST SHOT OF SEEING RAIN WILL LIKELY COME FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY.

IF THERE IS AN UP SIDE TO THE ANTICIPATION OF INCREASED CLOUD COVER
AND RAIN CHANCES...IT`S LOWER HEAT INDICES AS WE HEAD TOWARD NEXT
WEEEKND. /02/


&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOSTLY OVER THE EAST CENTRAL
GULF WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL GULF STATES
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME
BETTER DEVELOPED WITH THIS PATTERN BY MID WEEK. OTHERWISE...A LIGHT
TO MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH
LATE IN THE WEEK AS A BROAD UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS OVER MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN GULF AND CENTRAL GULF STATES. BETTER WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE
LIKELY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS NEAR THE
COAST INCLUDING INLAND BAYS AND SOUNDS AND DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS FROM THE COAST TO WELL OFFSHORE. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      72  96  75  95  76 /  05  10  10  30  30
PENSACOLA   76  98  78  94  78 /  05  10  10  40  30
DESTIN      79  94  80  93  80 /  05  10  10  40  30
EVERGREEN   70  99  74  97  75 /  20  20  20  30  30
WAYNESBORO  72  98  74  97  75 /  20  20  20  30  30
CAMDEN      71  99  74  97  76 /  20  20  20  30  30
CRESTVIEW   70 100  75  97  76 /  10  20  20  40  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM FORECASTER... EE
LONG TERM FORECASTER... BUTTS
PSU... RR




000
FXUS64 KMOB 271000
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
500 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...UPPER AIR MAPS THIS MORNING SHOWS
VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE GEO-POTENTIAL HEIGHT FIELD ALOFT. UPPER
RIDGE AXIS HOLDS FIRM FROM TEXAS TO OKLAHOMA WITH THE WEAKER PORTION
OF THE RIDGE POSITIONED OVER THE SOUTHEAST. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK
TROF WAS ALIGNED FROM THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA TO THE EASTERN
GULF. FOR TODAY...THE FORECAST CALLS FOR THE HIGH LEVEL LEVEL RIDGE
TO REBUILD OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. ALTHOUGH THERE
COULD BE A FEW POPUP SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON...THE
STRENGTHENING RIDGE ALOFT ACTS TO KEEP CHANCES OF RAIN SUPPRESSED
AND ON THE LOW SIDE (10% OR LESS). THE BETTER CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE CONFINED CLOSER TO THE SURFACE TROF AXIS WELL
TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA. DAYTIME HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID
90S. ALTHOUGH HOT...AFTERNOON HUMIDITY LOOKS TO BE KEPT IN CHECK AS
DEWPOINTS MIX OUT/LOWER INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S NORTH OF I-10.
THUS...HEAT INDEX VALUES RANGE FROM 100 TO 103 ON AVERAGE. FOR
TONIGHT...WITH THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE IN PLACE...WILL BE A TEMPERATURE
FORECAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER HALF OF THE 70S NORTH OF I-
10...WHILE AREA BEACHES SEE NUMBERS FROM 75 TO 80. /10

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS LOW.

[TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT]...UPPER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
REMAIN CENTERED OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH THE
WEAK UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
STATES PERSISTING. MEANWHILE A WEAK CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
MEANDER ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
SHORT TERM. DECREASING STABILITY THROUGHOUT THE DAY TUESDAY WILL
BRING A RETURN OF ABOUT A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER
HIGH MOVE NORTH TO SOUTH OVER THE FORECAST AREA. A HIGHER COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY WITH ABOUT A 30
TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE. WE SHOULD SEE A GENERALLY WESTERLY COMPONENT
TO THE SURFACE WINDS AS A WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
REMAINS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO.

HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM 94 TO
99 DEGREES...EXCEPT FOR THE LOWER 90S DEGREES AT THE BEACHES. HEAT
INDICES WILL LIKELY REACH FROM 103 TO 108 DEGREES BOTH AFTERNOONS.
LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 70S INLAND
AREAS...WITH UPPER 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS. /22

&&

.LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RETROGRADE WESTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK...LEAVING UPPER LEVEL WEAKNESS OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES
AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS SLOWLY SOUTHWARD AND MERGES WITH A WEAK
UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. THE WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO WHILE THE WEAK
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MEANDER ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
REGION. THIS PATTERN WILL BRING AN INCREASED CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
MID WEEK THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EACH DAY THROUGH MONDAY AND
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED...MAINLY EVENING...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EACH NIGHT. HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER A SLIGHT LOWERING IN DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED BY LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 90S INLAND AREAS AND UPPER 80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL
SECTIONS. AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES RANGING FROM 100 TO 107 DEGREES ON
THURSDAY WILL ALSO LOWER SLIGHTLY RANGING FROM 95 TO 101 DEGREES BY
THE WEEKEND. LITTLE CHANGE IN MIN TEMPERATURE READINGS EXPECTED. /22

&&

.AVIATION... 27.12Z TAF ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST. THERE
COULD BE A FEW POP UP SHRA/TSRA IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT THE LOW
PERCENTAGE CHANCES OF THESE OCCURRING PRECLUDE FROM MENTIONING IN
THE FORECAST. LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND THIS MORNING BECOMES
MORE SOUTHERLY BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE COAST. /10

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK TROUGH OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EASES NORTHWARD INTO
THE SOUTHEAST BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AND WILL REMAIN IN A NEARLY
FIXED POSITION FROM THE CAROLINAS TO SOUTHERN LOUISIANA THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. WINDS LOOK TO BE LIGHT...VARYING FROM A
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST DIRECTION THROUGH MOST OF THIS WEEK. SEAS
RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 FEET. WITH THE SURFACE TROF...JUST INLAND NORTH OF
THE COASTAL WATERS...CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS TREND HIGHER MID TO
LATE WEEK. WINDS...WAVES AND SEAS WILL BE LOCALLY HIGHER IN AND NEAR
MARINE STORMS. FREQUENT LIGHTNING ACTIVITY AND VISIBILITY REDUCING
HEAVY RAINS IN THE STRONGER STORMS WILL ALSO BE A HAZARD TO MARINE
SAFETY. /10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      95  73  96  75  96 /  05  05  20  20  30
PENSACOLA   96  77  95  79  95 /  05  05  20  20  40
DESTIN      95  80  94  80  94 /  05  05  20  20  40
EVERGREEN   97  72  97  75  98 /  05  05  20  20  30
WAYNESBORO  97  73  98  75  97 /  05  05  20  20  30
CAMDEN      97  72  96  74  97 /  05  05  20  20  30
CRESTVIEW   98  72  99  76  97 /  05  05  20  20  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMOB 271000
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
500 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...UPPER AIR MAPS THIS MORNING SHOWS
VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE GEO-POTENTIAL HEIGHT FIELD ALOFT. UPPER
RIDGE AXIS HOLDS FIRM FROM TEXAS TO OKLAHOMA WITH THE WEAKER PORTION
OF THE RIDGE POSITIONED OVER THE SOUTHEAST. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK
TROF WAS ALIGNED FROM THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA TO THE EASTERN
GULF. FOR TODAY...THE FORECAST CALLS FOR THE HIGH LEVEL LEVEL RIDGE
TO REBUILD OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. ALTHOUGH THERE
COULD BE A FEW POPUP SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON...THE
STRENGTHENING RIDGE ALOFT ACTS TO KEEP CHANCES OF RAIN SUPPRESSED
AND ON THE LOW SIDE (10% OR LESS). THE BETTER CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE CONFINED CLOSER TO THE SURFACE TROF AXIS WELL
TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA. DAYTIME HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID
90S. ALTHOUGH HOT...AFTERNOON HUMIDITY LOOKS TO BE KEPT IN CHECK AS
DEWPOINTS MIX OUT/LOWER INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S NORTH OF I-10.
THUS...HEAT INDEX VALUES RANGE FROM 100 TO 103 ON AVERAGE. FOR
TONIGHT...WITH THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE IN PLACE...WILL BE A TEMPERATURE
FORECAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER HALF OF THE 70S NORTH OF I-
10...WHILE AREA BEACHES SEE NUMBERS FROM 75 TO 80. /10

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS LOW.

[TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT]...UPPER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
REMAIN CENTERED OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH THE
WEAK UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
STATES PERSISTING. MEANWHILE A WEAK CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
MEANDER ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
SHORT TERM. DECREASING STABILITY THROUGHOUT THE DAY TUESDAY WILL
BRING A RETURN OF ABOUT A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER
HIGH MOVE NORTH TO SOUTH OVER THE FORECAST AREA. A HIGHER COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY WITH ABOUT A 30
TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE. WE SHOULD SEE A GENERALLY WESTERLY COMPONENT
TO THE SURFACE WINDS AS A WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
REMAINS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO.

HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM 94 TO
99 DEGREES...EXCEPT FOR THE LOWER 90S DEGREES AT THE BEACHES. HEAT
INDICES WILL LIKELY REACH FROM 103 TO 108 DEGREES BOTH AFTERNOONS.
LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 70S INLAND
AREAS...WITH UPPER 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS. /22

&&

.LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RETROGRADE WESTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK...LEAVING UPPER LEVEL WEAKNESS OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES
AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS SLOWLY SOUTHWARD AND MERGES WITH A WEAK
UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. THE WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO WHILE THE WEAK
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MEANDER ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
REGION. THIS PATTERN WILL BRING AN INCREASED CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
MID WEEK THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EACH DAY THROUGH MONDAY AND
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED...MAINLY EVENING...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EACH NIGHT. HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER A SLIGHT LOWERING IN DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED BY LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 90S INLAND AREAS AND UPPER 80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL
SECTIONS. AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES RANGING FROM 100 TO 107 DEGREES ON
THURSDAY WILL ALSO LOWER SLIGHTLY RANGING FROM 95 TO 101 DEGREES BY
THE WEEKEND. LITTLE CHANGE IN MIN TEMPERATURE READINGS EXPECTED. /22

&&

.AVIATION... 27.12Z TAF ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST. THERE
COULD BE A FEW POP UP SHRA/TSRA IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT THE LOW
PERCENTAGE CHANCES OF THESE OCCURRING PRECLUDE FROM MENTIONING IN
THE FORECAST. LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND THIS MORNING BECOMES
MORE SOUTHERLY BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE COAST. /10

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK TROUGH OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EASES NORTHWARD INTO
THE SOUTHEAST BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AND WILL REMAIN IN A NEARLY
FIXED POSITION FROM THE CAROLINAS TO SOUTHERN LOUISIANA THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. WINDS LOOK TO BE LIGHT...VARYING FROM A
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST DIRECTION THROUGH MOST OF THIS WEEK. SEAS
RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 FEET. WITH THE SURFACE TROF...JUST INLAND NORTH OF
THE COASTAL WATERS...CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS TREND HIGHER MID TO
LATE WEEK. WINDS...WAVES AND SEAS WILL BE LOCALLY HIGHER IN AND NEAR
MARINE STORMS. FREQUENT LIGHTNING ACTIVITY AND VISIBILITY REDUCING
HEAVY RAINS IN THE STRONGER STORMS WILL ALSO BE A HAZARD TO MARINE
SAFETY. /10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      95  73  96  75  96 /  05  05  20  20  30
PENSACOLA   96  77  95  79  95 /  05  05  20  20  40
DESTIN      95  80  94  80  94 /  05  05  20  20  40
EVERGREEN   97  72  97  75  98 /  05  05  20  20  30
WAYNESBORO  97  73  98  75  97 /  05  05  20  20  30
CAMDEN      97  72  96  74  97 /  05  05  20  20  30
CRESTVIEW   98  72  99  76  97 /  05  05  20  20  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 262040
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
340 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TONIGHT AND TOMORROW)...MODERATE RIDGE ALOFT WILL
REMAIN THE PRIMARY SYNOPTIC INFLUENCE ON AREA WEATHER. SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT WILL PROVIDE FOR A RELATIVELY DRY DAY TOMORROW AS LAYER PWATS
GENERALLY FALL INTO THE 1.1 TO 1.6 INCH RANGE. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ROTATING AROUND THE RIDGE...CAN BE SEEN AS AN IPV ANOMALLY IN THE GFS
500 TO 300 MB LYR AND ON WV IMAGERY OVER WEST TN COUPLING WITH LOW
LVL INSTABILITY...TRIGGERING CONVECTION. ENERGY SHEARS EASTWARD AS IT
MOVES SOUTHWARD BUT ENOUGH FORCING EVIDENT IN CONVERGENT-Q FIELDS TO
TRIGGER CONVECTION IF INSTABILITY WERE AVAILABLE BUT CURRENT TIMING
PUSHES FEATURE ACROSS FORECAST AREA BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND
SUNRISE...KEEPING WHAT INSTABILITY THERE IS CAPPED.
OTHERWISE...PARTLY CLOUDY MORNING SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS DAYTIME TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE 90S NEAR THE
COAST AND MID TO UPPER 90S IN THE INTERIOR AND CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED BUT SUBSIDENCE SHOULD CAP GROWTH IN THE MID-
LEVELS. /08 JVW

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TOMORROW EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING)...AS
ADVERTISED PAST SEVERAL DAYS...REGION REMAINS ON ERN PERIPHERY OF
DEEPLY REFLECTED SRN PLAINS RIDGE AND DEEP LAYER FLOW REMAINS E TO
NE. THIS PERIOD WILL HAVE TO BE CLOSELY WATCHED BECAUSE THE MID- AND
UPPER-LEVEL N-NE FLOW IS SUCH THAT IT LEAVES OUR REGION VULNERABLE TO
LATE NIGHT MCCS THAT DEVELOP IN THE OHVLY AND ADVECT/PROPAGATE SWD IN
THE FLOW. OTHERWISE...N-NE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS PERSIST AND IT
MOISTENS A BIT. THIS IS FORCED BY FORMATION OF A SFC LOW OVER SRN GA
THAT ADVECTS SLOWLY WWD IN THE FLOW. CIRCULATING AROUND IT IS HIGHER
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE VALUES THAT EVENTUALLY MIX DOWNWARD WITH TIME AS
IT IS RE-DISTRIBUTED AROUND THE LOW. SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURN AS TUESDAY IS THE TRANSITION DAY. MID-UPPER 90S
FORECAST FOR BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HEAT INDICES WILL RANGE FROM
102-107 BOTH DAYS. THIS IS A SLIGHT TICK UP FROM THE PAST FEW MODEL
RUNS AND A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED BY WEDNESDAY IF THIS TREND
CONTINUES. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S....EXCEPT NEAR 80
DEG(F) ALONG THE BEACHES. /23 JMM

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)...PERIOD BEGINS AS
NOTABLE RESERVOIR OF MID- AND UPPER LEVEL POTENTIAL VORTICITY
ADVECTS SWWD AROUND ERN PERIPHERY OF RIDGE AND AIDS DEVELOPMENT OF
UPPER CUT- OFF LOW WHILE MOVING ACROSS NRN FL. AS THE EVOLUTION
PROGRESSES THROUGH FRIDAY...AND UNLIKE YESTERDAY`S GLOBAL MODEL
RUNS...THE NOSE OF THE RIDGE IS STRONGER AND DEEPENING NOW LOOKS MORE
SUBTLE AND MORE LIKE WHAT ONE WOULD HAPPEN THIS TIME OF YEAR GIVEN
LACK OF SIGNIFICANT AIRMASS DENSITY DISCONTINUITIES. THE 26.12 GFS
LOOKS A BIT OVERDONE COMPARED TO THE 26.12 ECMWF. IN ANY EVENT...AS
PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH SWEEPS IN ON SATURDAY...A GENERAL WEAKNESSFORMS
OVER REGION AND CONTINUES ENHANCED RAIN CHANCES. THE KEY POINT IS
THAT BOTH MODELS LEAVE US ON THE MOIST SIDE OF THE MID- AND LOW-
LEVEL BOUNDARY. UNDER SUCH A SCENARIO... AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS WOULD BE
TEMPERED INTO THE LOWER TO POSSIBLY MID 90S THURSDAY AND AROUND 90
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY GIVEN INCREASED DEEP-LAYER CLOUDS. EXPECT
ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES EACH DAY. /23 JMM

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK
WHICH WILL BRING GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND SMALL SEA STATES. A LIGHT
TO MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH
DAYBREAK AND THEN VEER TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. /08 JVW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      72  95  75  97  77 /  05  05  10  20  20
PENSACOLA   74  96  78  97  79 /  05  10  05  20  20
DESTIN      75  93  80  95  81 /  05  10  05  20  20
EVERGREEN   69  97  74  99  76 /  05  05  05  20  20
WAYNESBORO  71  97  74  99  76 /  05  05  05  20  20
CAMDEN      70  97  75  98  76 /  05  05  05  20  20
CRESTVIEW   69  98  73  99  77 /  05  10  05  20  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMOB 262040
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
340 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TONIGHT AND TOMORROW)...MODERATE RIDGE ALOFT WILL
REMAIN THE PRIMARY SYNOPTIC INFLUENCE ON AREA WEATHER. SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT WILL PROVIDE FOR A RELATIVELY DRY DAY TOMORROW AS LAYER PWATS
GENERALLY FALL INTO THE 1.1 TO 1.6 INCH RANGE. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ROTATING AROUND THE RIDGE...CAN BE SEEN AS AN IPV ANOMALLY IN THE GFS
500 TO 300 MB LYR AND ON WV IMAGERY OVER WEST TN COUPLING WITH LOW
LVL INSTABILITY...TRIGGERING CONVECTION. ENERGY SHEARS EASTWARD AS IT
MOVES SOUTHWARD BUT ENOUGH FORCING EVIDENT IN CONVERGENT-Q FIELDS TO
TRIGGER CONVECTION IF INSTABILITY WERE AVAILABLE BUT CURRENT TIMING
PUSHES FEATURE ACROSS FORECAST AREA BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND
SUNRISE...KEEPING WHAT INSTABILITY THERE IS CAPPED.
OTHERWISE...PARTLY CLOUDY MORNING SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS DAYTIME TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE 90S NEAR THE
COAST AND MID TO UPPER 90S IN THE INTERIOR AND CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED BUT SUBSIDENCE SHOULD CAP GROWTH IN THE MID-
LEVELS. /08 JVW

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TOMORROW EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING)...AS
ADVERTISED PAST SEVERAL DAYS...REGION REMAINS ON ERN PERIPHERY OF
DEEPLY REFLECTED SRN PLAINS RIDGE AND DEEP LAYER FLOW REMAINS E TO
NE. THIS PERIOD WILL HAVE TO BE CLOSELY WATCHED BECAUSE THE MID- AND
UPPER-LEVEL N-NE FLOW IS SUCH THAT IT LEAVES OUR REGION VULNERABLE TO
LATE NIGHT MCCS THAT DEVELOP IN THE OHVLY AND ADVECT/PROPAGATE SWD IN
THE FLOW. OTHERWISE...N-NE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS PERSIST AND IT
MOISTENS A BIT. THIS IS FORCED BY FORMATION OF A SFC LOW OVER SRN GA
THAT ADVECTS SLOWLY WWD IN THE FLOW. CIRCULATING AROUND IT IS HIGHER
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE VALUES THAT EVENTUALLY MIX DOWNWARD WITH TIME AS
IT IS RE-DISTRIBUTED AROUND THE LOW. SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURN AS TUESDAY IS THE TRANSITION DAY. MID-UPPER 90S
FORECAST FOR BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HEAT INDICES WILL RANGE FROM
102-107 BOTH DAYS. THIS IS A SLIGHT TICK UP FROM THE PAST FEW MODEL
RUNS AND A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED BY WEDNESDAY IF THIS TREND
CONTINUES. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S....EXCEPT NEAR 80
DEG(F) ALONG THE BEACHES. /23 JMM

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)...PERIOD BEGINS AS
NOTABLE RESERVOIR OF MID- AND UPPER LEVEL POTENTIAL VORTICITY
ADVECTS SWWD AROUND ERN PERIPHERY OF RIDGE AND AIDS DEVELOPMENT OF
UPPER CUT- OFF LOW WHILE MOVING ACROSS NRN FL. AS THE EVOLUTION
PROGRESSES THROUGH FRIDAY...AND UNLIKE YESTERDAY`S GLOBAL MODEL
RUNS...THE NOSE OF THE RIDGE IS STRONGER AND DEEPENING NOW LOOKS MORE
SUBTLE AND MORE LIKE WHAT ONE WOULD HAPPEN THIS TIME OF YEAR GIVEN
LACK OF SIGNIFICANT AIRMASS DENSITY DISCONTINUITIES. THE 26.12 GFS
LOOKS A BIT OVERDONE COMPARED TO THE 26.12 ECMWF. IN ANY EVENT...AS
PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH SWEEPS IN ON SATURDAY...A GENERAL WEAKNESSFORMS
OVER REGION AND CONTINUES ENHANCED RAIN CHANCES. THE KEY POINT IS
THAT BOTH MODELS LEAVE US ON THE MOIST SIDE OF THE MID- AND LOW-
LEVEL BOUNDARY. UNDER SUCH A SCENARIO... AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS WOULD BE
TEMPERED INTO THE LOWER TO POSSIBLY MID 90S THURSDAY AND AROUND 90
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY GIVEN INCREASED DEEP-LAYER CLOUDS. EXPECT
ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES EACH DAY. /23 JMM

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK
WHICH WILL BRING GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND SMALL SEA STATES. A LIGHT
TO MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH
DAYBREAK AND THEN VEER TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. /08 JVW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      72  95  75  97  77 /  05  05  10  20  20
PENSACOLA   74  96  78  97  79 /  05  10  05  20  20
DESTIN      75  93  80  95  81 /  05  10  05  20  20
EVERGREEN   69  97  74  99  76 /  05  05  05  20  20
WAYNESBORO  71  97  74  99  76 /  05  05  05  20  20
CAMDEN      70  97  75  98  76 /  05  05  05  20  20
CRESTVIEW   69  98  73  99  77 /  05  10  05  20  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 261822
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
122 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.UPDATE....UPDATE...MINOR UPDATES TO THIS AFTERNOON`S FORECAST PKG. MODIFIED
POPS...ADDED ISOLATED TSTMS TO SOUTHEAST MS COUNTIES AND WESTERN EDGE
OF ALABAMA FORECAST AREA...PRETTY MUCH FROM CHOCTAW COUNTY SOUTHWARD
THROUGH MOBILE. ANALYSIS AND MODELS STILL DEPICTING ENOUGH OF AN
INSTABILITY AXIS TO ALLOW SPOTTY AFTERNOON CONVECTION...OTHERWISE
INCREASING SUBSIDENCE ALOFT SHOULD KEEP ACTIVITY CAPPED. /08 JW

.AVIATION...261800Z UPDATE. ASIDE FROM VERY ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER
THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA...NO FLYING WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH
THE FCST CYCLE. /08 JW

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015/

SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN THE HIGH
LEVEL PRESSURE PATTERN THIS MORNING AS A MID LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS
POSITIONED OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. TO THE EAST OF THE DEEP LAYER
RIDGE...A WEAKNESS IS POSITIONED OVER THE SOUTHEAST. A WEAK FRONTAL
ZONE HAS SLIPPED SOUTHWARD AND IS NOW DRAPED FROM OFF THE SOUTHEAST
US COAST TO ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND INTO THE
NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE GULF. NORTH OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...DRIER MID LEVEL AIR IS SET UP FROM SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI...EASTWARD TO SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST. LOWEST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN OVER THE PIEDMONT
WITH VALUES LESS THAN 1.4 INCHES. HOWEVER...FROM JAX...WESTWARD TO
LCH...PRECIPITABLE WATER (PWAT) VALUES RANGE FROM 1.8 TO 2.1 INCHES.
THE DEEPER LAYER AIRMASS ALONG THE FORECAST AREA IS FORECAST TO
UNDERGO DRYING TODAY WITH A REDUCTION IN PWATS BY A HALF
INCH...LOWERING TO BETWEEN 1.3 AND 1.6 INCHES. WITH THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA...FOCUS ALONG IT WILL BE
REMOVED WHICH WILL LIMIT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY. STILL
COULD SEE THE PASSAGE OF MID LEVEL IMPULSES AROUND THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH COULD HELP INITIATE
ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM MILTON FLORIDA TO
WIGGINS MISSISSIPPI. THIS IS SUGGESTED BY THE HIGHER RESOLUTION
MESOSCALE MODELS. COVERAGE OF STORMS TODAY...THOUGH...APPEARS TO BE
LESSENED AS WE HAVE SEEN OF LATE. TODAY`S HIGH TEMPERATURES FORECAST
TO LIFT INTO THE MID 90S. WITH DAYTIME DEWPOINTS MIXING
OUT/LOWERING...HIGHEST HEAT INDEX VALUES ONLY TOP OUT TO BETWEEN 100
TO 103.

APPEARS TO BE A QUIET NIGHT TONIGHT WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS
AT OR LESS THAN 10%. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S INTERIOR TO MID
TO UPPER 70S COAST. /10

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS MODERATE.

[MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT]...THE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
BE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL OKLAHOMA ON MONDAY WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
EXTENDING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS UPPER
RIDGE WILL RESULT IN STRONGER LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. A SLIGHT
SHIFT IN THE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE CENTER TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST
OVER NORTHERN ARKANSAS AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI WILL FOLLOW ON TUESDAY
WITH THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY. MEANWHILE...A WEAK CENTER
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE ON MONDAY AND THEN MEANDER ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM. DECREASING
STABILITY THROUGHOUT THE DAY TUESDAY WILL BRING A RETURN OF ABOUT A
10 TO 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS WEAK UPPER
DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER HIGH MOVING FROM THE
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST PASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. WE
SHOULD SEE A GENERALLY WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE SURFACE WINDS AS A
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXPANDS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO.

HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM 94 TO 98
DEGREES...EXCEPT FOR THE LOWER 90S DEGREES AT THE BEACHES. HEAT
INDICES WILL LIKELY REACH FROM 102 TO 107 DEGREES BOTH AFTERNOONS.
LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 70S INLAND
AREAS...WITH UPPER 70S ALONG THE BEACHES. /22

LONG TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY]...THE CENTER OF THE UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RETROGRADE WESTWARD THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...LEAVING UPPER LEVEL WEAKNESS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS SLOWLY SOUTHWARD AND MERGES
WITH A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. THE WEAK
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO
WHILE THE WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MEANDER ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST REGION. THIS PATTERN WILL BRING AN INCREASED CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION MID WEEK THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EACH DAY THROUGH SUNDAY
AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED...MAINLY EVENING...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH NIGHT. HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER A SLIGHT LOWERING IN
DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED BY LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S INLAND AREAS AND UPPER 80S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS. AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES RANGING FROM 100
TO 106 DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY WILL ALSO LOWER SLIGHTLY RANGING FROM 95
TO 100 DEGREES BY THE WEEKEND. LITTLE CHANGE IN MIN TEMPERATURE
READINGS EXPECTED. /22

AVIATION... 26.12Z TAF ISSUANCE...COULD BE SOME MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE
FROM MILTON FLORIDA TO WIGGINS MISSISSIPPI. THESE COULD BRING BRIEF
REDUCTIONS IN CIGS/VSBYS...BRIEF STRONG WINDS...AND MODERATE/LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS. OTHERWISE... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE NEAR
TERM. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS THIS MORNING...BECOMING PRIMARILY
SOUTHEASTERLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS BECOMING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING. /10

MARINE...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE
NORTHEAST GULF OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A GENERALLY WEAK
PRESSURE PATTERN EXISTS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK...BRINGING RELATIVELY
LIGHT WINDS AND SMALL SEA STATES. WINDS...WAVES AND SEAS LOCALLY
HIGHER IN AND NEAR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS THIS WEEK. FREQUENT
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY AND VISIBILITY REDUCING HEAVY RAINS IN THE
STRONGER STORMS WILL ALSO BE A HAZARD TO MARINE SAFETY THIS WEEK./10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      95  73  97  75  97 /  20  05  05  10  20
PENSACOLA   94  75  96  78  97 /  10  05  10  05  20
DESTIN      94  78  96  80  95 /  10  05  10  05  20
EVERGREEN   96  71  97  74  99 /  10  05  05  05  20
WAYNESBORO  97  71  97  74  99 /  20  05  05  05  20
CAMDEN      97  71  97  75  98 /  10  05  05  05  20
CRESTVIEW   97  70  98  73  99 /  10  05  10  05  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 261822
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
122 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.UPDATE....UPDATE...MINOR UPDATES TO THIS AFTERNOON`S FORECAST PKG. MODIFIED
POPS...ADDED ISOLATED TSTMS TO SOUTHEAST MS COUNTIES AND WESTERN EDGE
OF ALABAMA FORECAST AREA...PRETTY MUCH FROM CHOCTAW COUNTY SOUTHWARD
THROUGH MOBILE. ANALYSIS AND MODELS STILL DEPICTING ENOUGH OF AN
INSTABILITY AXIS TO ALLOW SPOTTY AFTERNOON CONVECTION...OTHERWISE
INCREASING SUBSIDENCE ALOFT SHOULD KEEP ACTIVITY CAPPED. /08 JW

.AVIATION...261800Z UPDATE. ASIDE FROM VERY ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER
THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA...NO FLYING WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH
THE FCST CYCLE. /08 JW

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015/

SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN THE HIGH
LEVEL PRESSURE PATTERN THIS MORNING AS A MID LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS
POSITIONED OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. TO THE EAST OF THE DEEP LAYER
RIDGE...A WEAKNESS IS POSITIONED OVER THE SOUTHEAST. A WEAK FRONTAL
ZONE HAS SLIPPED SOUTHWARD AND IS NOW DRAPED FROM OFF THE SOUTHEAST
US COAST TO ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND INTO THE
NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE GULF. NORTH OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...DRIER MID LEVEL AIR IS SET UP FROM SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI...EASTWARD TO SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST. LOWEST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN OVER THE PIEDMONT
WITH VALUES LESS THAN 1.4 INCHES. HOWEVER...FROM JAX...WESTWARD TO
LCH...PRECIPITABLE WATER (PWAT) VALUES RANGE FROM 1.8 TO 2.1 INCHES.
THE DEEPER LAYER AIRMASS ALONG THE FORECAST AREA IS FORECAST TO
UNDERGO DRYING TODAY WITH A REDUCTION IN PWATS BY A HALF
INCH...LOWERING TO BETWEEN 1.3 AND 1.6 INCHES. WITH THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA...FOCUS ALONG IT WILL BE
REMOVED WHICH WILL LIMIT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY. STILL
COULD SEE THE PASSAGE OF MID LEVEL IMPULSES AROUND THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH COULD HELP INITIATE
ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM MILTON FLORIDA TO
WIGGINS MISSISSIPPI. THIS IS SUGGESTED BY THE HIGHER RESOLUTION
MESOSCALE MODELS. COVERAGE OF STORMS TODAY...THOUGH...APPEARS TO BE
LESSENED AS WE HAVE SEEN OF LATE. TODAY`S HIGH TEMPERATURES FORECAST
TO LIFT INTO THE MID 90S. WITH DAYTIME DEWPOINTS MIXING
OUT/LOWERING...HIGHEST HEAT INDEX VALUES ONLY TOP OUT TO BETWEEN 100
TO 103.

APPEARS TO BE A QUIET NIGHT TONIGHT WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS
AT OR LESS THAN 10%. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S INTERIOR TO MID
TO UPPER 70S COAST. /10

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS MODERATE.

[MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT]...THE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
BE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL OKLAHOMA ON MONDAY WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
EXTENDING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS UPPER
RIDGE WILL RESULT IN STRONGER LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. A SLIGHT
SHIFT IN THE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE CENTER TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST
OVER NORTHERN ARKANSAS AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI WILL FOLLOW ON TUESDAY
WITH THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY. MEANWHILE...A WEAK CENTER
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE ON MONDAY AND THEN MEANDER ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM. DECREASING
STABILITY THROUGHOUT THE DAY TUESDAY WILL BRING A RETURN OF ABOUT A
10 TO 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS WEAK UPPER
DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER HIGH MOVING FROM THE
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST PASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. WE
SHOULD SEE A GENERALLY WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE SURFACE WINDS AS A
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXPANDS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO.

HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM 94 TO 98
DEGREES...EXCEPT FOR THE LOWER 90S DEGREES AT THE BEACHES. HEAT
INDICES WILL LIKELY REACH FROM 102 TO 107 DEGREES BOTH AFTERNOONS.
LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 70S INLAND
AREAS...WITH UPPER 70S ALONG THE BEACHES. /22

LONG TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY]...THE CENTER OF THE UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RETROGRADE WESTWARD THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...LEAVING UPPER LEVEL WEAKNESS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS SLOWLY SOUTHWARD AND MERGES
WITH A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. THE WEAK
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO
WHILE THE WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MEANDER ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST REGION. THIS PATTERN WILL BRING AN INCREASED CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION MID WEEK THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EACH DAY THROUGH SUNDAY
AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED...MAINLY EVENING...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH NIGHT. HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER A SLIGHT LOWERING IN
DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED BY LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S INLAND AREAS AND UPPER 80S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS. AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES RANGING FROM 100
TO 106 DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY WILL ALSO LOWER SLIGHTLY RANGING FROM 95
TO 100 DEGREES BY THE WEEKEND. LITTLE CHANGE IN MIN TEMPERATURE
READINGS EXPECTED. /22

AVIATION... 26.12Z TAF ISSUANCE...COULD BE SOME MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE
FROM MILTON FLORIDA TO WIGGINS MISSISSIPPI. THESE COULD BRING BRIEF
REDUCTIONS IN CIGS/VSBYS...BRIEF STRONG WINDS...AND MODERATE/LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS. OTHERWISE... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE NEAR
TERM. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS THIS MORNING...BECOMING PRIMARILY
SOUTHEASTERLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS BECOMING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING. /10

MARINE...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE
NORTHEAST GULF OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A GENERALLY WEAK
PRESSURE PATTERN EXISTS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK...BRINGING RELATIVELY
LIGHT WINDS AND SMALL SEA STATES. WINDS...WAVES AND SEAS LOCALLY
HIGHER IN AND NEAR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS THIS WEEK. FREQUENT
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY AND VISIBILITY REDUCING HEAVY RAINS IN THE
STRONGER STORMS WILL ALSO BE A HAZARD TO MARINE SAFETY THIS WEEK./10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      95  73  97  75  97 /  20  05  05  10  20
PENSACOLA   94  75  96  78  97 /  10  05  10  05  20
DESTIN      94  78  96  80  95 /  10  05  10  05  20
EVERGREEN   96  71  97  74  99 /  10  05  05  05  20
WAYNESBORO  97  71  97  74  99 /  20  05  05  05  20
CAMDEN      97  71  97  75  98 /  10  05  05  05  20
CRESTVIEW   97  70  98  73  99 /  10  05  10  05  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMOB 260929
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
429 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN THE HIGH
LEVEL PRESSURE PATTERN THIS MORNING AS A MID LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS
POSITIONED OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. TO THE EAST OF THE DEEP LAYER
RIDGE...A WEAKNESS IS POSITIONED OVER THE SOUTHEAST. A WEAK FRONTAL
ZONE HAS SLIPPED SOUTHWARD AND IS NOW DRAPED FROM OFF THE SOUTHEAST
US COAST TO ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND INTO THE
NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE GULF. NORTH OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...DRIER MID LEVEL AIR IS SET UP FROM SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI...EASTWARD TO SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST. LOWEST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN OVER THE PIEDMONT
WITH VALUES LESS THAN 1.4 INCHES. HOWEVER...FROM JAX...WESTWARD TO
LCH...PRECIPITABLE WATER (PWAT) VALUES RANGE FROM 1.8 TO 2.1 INCHES.
THE DEEPER LAYER AIRMASS ALONG THE FORECAST AREA IS FORECAST TO
UNDERGO DRYING TODAY WITH A REDUCTION IN PWATS BY A HALF
INCH...LOWERING TO BETWEEN 1.3 AND 1.6 INCHES. WITH THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA...FOCUS ALONG IT WILL BE
REMOVED WHICH WILL LIMIT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY. STILL
COULD SEE THE PASSAGE OF MID LEVEL IMPULSES AROUND THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH COULD HELP INITIATE
ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM MILTON FLORIDA TO
WIGGINS MISSISSIPPI. THIS IS SUGGESTED BY THE HIGHER RESOLUTION
MESOSCALE MODELS. COVERAGE OF STORMS TODAY...THOUGH...APPEARS TO BE
LESSENED AS WE HAVE SEEN OF LATE. TODAY`S HIGH TEMPERATURES FORECAST
TO LIFT INTO THE MID 90S. WITH DAYTIME DEWPOINTS MIXING
OUT/LOWERING...HIGHEST HEAT INDEX VALUES ONLY TOP OUT TO BETWEEN 100
TO 103.

APPEARS TO BE A QUIET NIGHT TONIGHT WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS
AT OR LESS THAN 10%. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S INTERIOR TO MID
TO UPPER 70S COAST. /10

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS MODERATE.

[MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT]...THE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
BE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL OKLAHOMA ON MONDAY WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
EXTENDING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS UPPER
RIDGE WILL RESULT IN STRONGER LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. A SLIGHT
SHIFT IN THE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE CENTER TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST
OVER NORTHERN ARKANSAS AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI WILL FOLLOW ON TUESDAY
WITH THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY. MEANWHILE...A WEAK CENTER
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE ON MONDAY AND THEN MEANDER ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM. DECREASING
STABILITY THROUGHOUT THE DAY TUESDAY WILL BRING A RETURN OF ABOUT A
10 TO 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS WEAK UPPER
DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER HIGH MOVING FROM THE
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST PASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. WE
SHOULD SEE A GENERALLY WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE SURFACE WINDS AS A
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXPANDS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO.

HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM 94 TO 98
DEGREES...EXCEPT FOR THE LOWER 90S DEGREES AT THE BEACHES. HEAT
INDICES WILL LIKELY REACH FROM 102 TO 107 DEGREES BOTH AFTERNOONS.
LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 70S INLAND
AREAS...WITH UPPER 70S ALONG THE BEACHES. /22

&&

.LONG TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY]...THE CENTER OF THE UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RETROGRADE WESTWARD THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...LEAVING UPPER LEVEL WEAKNESS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS SLOWLY SOUTHWARD AND MERGES
WITH A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. THE WEAK
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO
WHILE THE WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MEANDER ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST REGION. THIS PATTERN WILL BRING AN INCREASED CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION MID WEEK THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EACH DAY THROUGH SUNDAY
AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED...MAINLY EVENING...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH NIGHT. HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER A SLIGHT LOWERING IN
DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED BY LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S INLAND AREAS AND UPPER 80S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS. AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES RANGING FROM 100
TO 106 DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY WILL ALSO LOWER SLIGHTLY RANGING FROM 95
TO 100 DEGREES BY THE WEEKEND. LITTLE CHANGE IN MIN TEMPERATURE
READINGS EXPECTED. /22

&&

.AVIATION... 26.12Z TAF ISSUANCE...COULD BE SOME MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE
FROM MILTON FLORIDA TO WIGGINS MISSISSIPPI. THESE COULD BRING BRIEF
REDUCTIONS IN CIGS/VSBYS...BRIEF STRONG WINDS...AND MODERATE/LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS. OTHERWISE... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE NEAR
TERM. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS THIS MORNING...BECOMING PRIMARILY
SOUTHEASTERLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS BECOMING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING. /10

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE
NORTHEAST GULF OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A GENERALLY WEAK
PRESSURE PATTERN EXISTS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK...BRINGING RELATIVELY
LIGHT WINDS AND SMALL SEA STATES. WINDS...WAVES AND SEAS LOCALLY
HIGHER IN AND NEAR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS THIS WEEK. FREQUENT
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY AND VISIBILITY REDUCING HEAVY RAINS IN THE
STRONGER STORMS WILL ALSO BE A HAZARD TO MARINE SAFETY THIS WEEK./10


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      95  73  97  74  97 /  20  05  05  05  20
PENSACOLA   94  75  96  77  96 /  20  05  05  05  20
DESTIN      94  78  96  79  96 /  10  05  05  05  20
EVERGREEN   96  71  97  73  98 /  10  05  05  05  20
WAYNESBORO  97  71  97  74  97 /  10  05  05  05  20
CAMDEN      97  71  97  74  97 /  10  05  05  05  20
CRESTVIEW   97  70  98  72  98 /  10  05  05  05  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 260929
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
429 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN THE HIGH
LEVEL PRESSURE PATTERN THIS MORNING AS A MID LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS
POSITIONED OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. TO THE EAST OF THE DEEP LAYER
RIDGE...A WEAKNESS IS POSITIONED OVER THE SOUTHEAST. A WEAK FRONTAL
ZONE HAS SLIPPED SOUTHWARD AND IS NOW DRAPED FROM OFF THE SOUTHEAST
US COAST TO ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND INTO THE
NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE GULF. NORTH OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...DRIER MID LEVEL AIR IS SET UP FROM SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI...EASTWARD TO SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST. LOWEST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN OVER THE PIEDMONT
WITH VALUES LESS THAN 1.4 INCHES. HOWEVER...FROM JAX...WESTWARD TO
LCH...PRECIPITABLE WATER (PWAT) VALUES RANGE FROM 1.8 TO 2.1 INCHES.
THE DEEPER LAYER AIRMASS ALONG THE FORECAST AREA IS FORECAST TO
UNDERGO DRYING TODAY WITH A REDUCTION IN PWATS BY A HALF
INCH...LOWERING TO BETWEEN 1.3 AND 1.6 INCHES. WITH THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA...FOCUS ALONG IT WILL BE
REMOVED WHICH WILL LIMIT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY. STILL
COULD SEE THE PASSAGE OF MID LEVEL IMPULSES AROUND THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH COULD HELP INITIATE
ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM MILTON FLORIDA TO
WIGGINS MISSISSIPPI. THIS IS SUGGESTED BY THE HIGHER RESOLUTION
MESOSCALE MODELS. COVERAGE OF STORMS TODAY...THOUGH...APPEARS TO BE
LESSENED AS WE HAVE SEEN OF LATE. TODAY`S HIGH TEMPERATURES FORECAST
TO LIFT INTO THE MID 90S. WITH DAYTIME DEWPOINTS MIXING
OUT/LOWERING...HIGHEST HEAT INDEX VALUES ONLY TOP OUT TO BETWEEN 100
TO 103.

APPEARS TO BE A QUIET NIGHT TONIGHT WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS
AT OR LESS THAN 10%. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S INTERIOR TO MID
TO UPPER 70S COAST. /10

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS MODERATE.

[MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT]...THE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
BE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL OKLAHOMA ON MONDAY WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
EXTENDING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS UPPER
RIDGE WILL RESULT IN STRONGER LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. A SLIGHT
SHIFT IN THE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE CENTER TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST
OVER NORTHERN ARKANSAS AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI WILL FOLLOW ON TUESDAY
WITH THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY. MEANWHILE...A WEAK CENTER
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE ON MONDAY AND THEN MEANDER ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM. DECREASING
STABILITY THROUGHOUT THE DAY TUESDAY WILL BRING A RETURN OF ABOUT A
10 TO 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS WEAK UPPER
DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER HIGH MOVING FROM THE
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST PASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. WE
SHOULD SEE A GENERALLY WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE SURFACE WINDS AS A
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXPANDS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO.

HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM 94 TO 98
DEGREES...EXCEPT FOR THE LOWER 90S DEGREES AT THE BEACHES. HEAT
INDICES WILL LIKELY REACH FROM 102 TO 107 DEGREES BOTH AFTERNOONS.
LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 70S INLAND
AREAS...WITH UPPER 70S ALONG THE BEACHES. /22

&&

.LONG TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY]...THE CENTER OF THE UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RETROGRADE WESTWARD THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...LEAVING UPPER LEVEL WEAKNESS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS SLOWLY SOUTHWARD AND MERGES
WITH A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. THE WEAK
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO
WHILE THE WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MEANDER ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST REGION. THIS PATTERN WILL BRING AN INCREASED CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION MID WEEK THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EACH DAY THROUGH SUNDAY
AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED...MAINLY EVENING...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH NIGHT. HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER A SLIGHT LOWERING IN
DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED BY LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S INLAND AREAS AND UPPER 80S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS. AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES RANGING FROM 100
TO 106 DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY WILL ALSO LOWER SLIGHTLY RANGING FROM 95
TO 100 DEGREES BY THE WEEKEND. LITTLE CHANGE IN MIN TEMPERATURE
READINGS EXPECTED. /22

&&

.AVIATION... 26.12Z TAF ISSUANCE...COULD BE SOME MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE
FROM MILTON FLORIDA TO WIGGINS MISSISSIPPI. THESE COULD BRING BRIEF
REDUCTIONS IN CIGS/VSBYS...BRIEF STRONG WINDS...AND MODERATE/LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS. OTHERWISE... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE NEAR
TERM. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS THIS MORNING...BECOMING PRIMARILY
SOUTHEASTERLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS BECOMING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING. /10

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE
NORTHEAST GULF OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A GENERALLY WEAK
PRESSURE PATTERN EXISTS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK...BRINGING RELATIVELY
LIGHT WINDS AND SMALL SEA STATES. WINDS...WAVES AND SEAS LOCALLY
HIGHER IN AND NEAR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS THIS WEEK. FREQUENT
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY AND VISIBILITY REDUCING HEAVY RAINS IN THE
STRONGER STORMS WILL ALSO BE A HAZARD TO MARINE SAFETY THIS WEEK./10


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      95  73  97  74  97 /  20  05  05  05  20
PENSACOLA   94  75  96  77  96 /  20  05  05  05  20
DESTIN      94  78  96  79  96 /  10  05  05  05  20
EVERGREEN   96  71  97  73  98 /  10  05  05  05  20
WAYNESBORO  97  71  97  74  97 /  10  05  05  05  20
CAMDEN      97  71  97  74  97 /  10  05  05  05  20
CRESTVIEW   97  70  98  72  98 /  10  05  05  05  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMOB 260929
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
429 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN THE HIGH
LEVEL PRESSURE PATTERN THIS MORNING AS A MID LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS
POSITIONED OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. TO THE EAST OF THE DEEP LAYER
RIDGE...A WEAKNESS IS POSITIONED OVER THE SOUTHEAST. A WEAK FRONTAL
ZONE HAS SLIPPED SOUTHWARD AND IS NOW DRAPED FROM OFF THE SOUTHEAST
US COAST TO ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND INTO THE
NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE GULF. NORTH OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...DRIER MID LEVEL AIR IS SET UP FROM SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI...EASTWARD TO SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST. LOWEST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN OVER THE PIEDMONT
WITH VALUES LESS THAN 1.4 INCHES. HOWEVER...FROM JAX...WESTWARD TO
LCH...PRECIPITABLE WATER (PWAT) VALUES RANGE FROM 1.8 TO 2.1 INCHES.
THE DEEPER LAYER AIRMASS ALONG THE FORECAST AREA IS FORECAST TO
UNDERGO DRYING TODAY WITH A REDUCTION IN PWATS BY A HALF
INCH...LOWERING TO BETWEEN 1.3 AND 1.6 INCHES. WITH THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA...FOCUS ALONG IT WILL BE
REMOVED WHICH WILL LIMIT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY. STILL
COULD SEE THE PASSAGE OF MID LEVEL IMPULSES AROUND THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH COULD HELP INITIATE
ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM MILTON FLORIDA TO
WIGGINS MISSISSIPPI. THIS IS SUGGESTED BY THE HIGHER RESOLUTION
MESOSCALE MODELS. COVERAGE OF STORMS TODAY...THOUGH...APPEARS TO BE
LESSENED AS WE HAVE SEEN OF LATE. TODAY`S HIGH TEMPERATURES FORECAST
TO LIFT INTO THE MID 90S. WITH DAYTIME DEWPOINTS MIXING
OUT/LOWERING...HIGHEST HEAT INDEX VALUES ONLY TOP OUT TO BETWEEN 100
TO 103.

APPEARS TO BE A QUIET NIGHT TONIGHT WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS
AT OR LESS THAN 10%. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S INTERIOR TO MID
TO UPPER 70S COAST. /10

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS MODERATE.

[MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT]...THE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
BE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL OKLAHOMA ON MONDAY WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
EXTENDING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS UPPER
RIDGE WILL RESULT IN STRONGER LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. A SLIGHT
SHIFT IN THE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE CENTER TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST
OVER NORTHERN ARKANSAS AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI WILL FOLLOW ON TUESDAY
WITH THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY. MEANWHILE...A WEAK CENTER
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE ON MONDAY AND THEN MEANDER ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM. DECREASING
STABILITY THROUGHOUT THE DAY TUESDAY WILL BRING A RETURN OF ABOUT A
10 TO 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS WEAK UPPER
DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER HIGH MOVING FROM THE
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST PASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. WE
SHOULD SEE A GENERALLY WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE SURFACE WINDS AS A
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXPANDS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO.

HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM 94 TO 98
DEGREES...EXCEPT FOR THE LOWER 90S DEGREES AT THE BEACHES. HEAT
INDICES WILL LIKELY REACH FROM 102 TO 107 DEGREES BOTH AFTERNOONS.
LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 70S INLAND
AREAS...WITH UPPER 70S ALONG THE BEACHES. /22

&&

.LONG TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY]...THE CENTER OF THE UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RETROGRADE WESTWARD THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...LEAVING UPPER LEVEL WEAKNESS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS SLOWLY SOUTHWARD AND MERGES
WITH A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. THE WEAK
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO
WHILE THE WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MEANDER ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST REGION. THIS PATTERN WILL BRING AN INCREASED CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION MID WEEK THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EACH DAY THROUGH SUNDAY
AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED...MAINLY EVENING...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH NIGHT. HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER A SLIGHT LOWERING IN
DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED BY LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S INLAND AREAS AND UPPER 80S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS. AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES RANGING FROM 100
TO 106 DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY WILL ALSO LOWER SLIGHTLY RANGING FROM 95
TO 100 DEGREES BY THE WEEKEND. LITTLE CHANGE IN MIN TEMPERATURE
READINGS EXPECTED. /22

&&

.AVIATION... 26.12Z TAF ISSUANCE...COULD BE SOME MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE
FROM MILTON FLORIDA TO WIGGINS MISSISSIPPI. THESE COULD BRING BRIEF
REDUCTIONS IN CIGS/VSBYS...BRIEF STRONG WINDS...AND MODERATE/LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS. OTHERWISE... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE NEAR
TERM. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS THIS MORNING...BECOMING PRIMARILY
SOUTHEASTERLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS BECOMING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING. /10

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE
NORTHEAST GULF OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A GENERALLY WEAK
PRESSURE PATTERN EXISTS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK...BRINGING RELATIVELY
LIGHT WINDS AND SMALL SEA STATES. WINDS...WAVES AND SEAS LOCALLY
HIGHER IN AND NEAR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS THIS WEEK. FREQUENT
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY AND VISIBILITY REDUCING HEAVY RAINS IN THE
STRONGER STORMS WILL ALSO BE A HAZARD TO MARINE SAFETY THIS WEEK./10


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      95  73  97  74  97 /  20  05  05  05  20
PENSACOLA   94  75  96  77  96 /  20  05  05  05  20
DESTIN      94  78  96  79  96 /  10  05  05  05  20
EVERGREEN   96  71  97  73  98 /  10  05  05  05  20
WAYNESBORO  97  71  97  74  97 /  10  05  05  05  20
CAMDEN      97  71  97  74  97 /  10  05  05  05  20
CRESTVIEW   97  70  98  72  98 /  10  05  05  05  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMOB 260456
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1156 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.AVIATION...29/06Z ISSUANCE...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER
NEXT 24 HOURS. POSSIBLY LIGHT...PATCHY GROUND FOG RESULTING IN MVFR
VSBYS IN SOME LOCATIONS TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY...BUT OTHERWISE NO
RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY. CONVECTION CHANCES MUCH LOWER ON SUNDAY...LESS
THAN 20 PERCENT...AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS SHIFTED SOUTH INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF AND DRIER AND SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE AIR MOVES INTO THE
REGION. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH SUNRISE THIS MORNING...THEN
PRIMARILY SOUTHEASTERLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY
BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN SUNDAY EVENING. 12/DS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015/

NEAR TERM (TONIGHT AND TOMORROW)...AN ELONGATED DEEPLY-REFLECTED
RIDGE EXTENDS MERIDIONALLY FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC. OUR REGION REMAINS IN A DEEP N-NE FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD
AND DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT IN FROM THE NORTH. THE SFC
PRESSURE PATTERN REMAINS RELATIVELY FLAT. AS SFC DEWPOINTS DROP
OVERNIGHT...IT WILL NOT FEEL AS HUMID AND STICKY BEGINNING LATER
THIS EVENING (AND ESPECIALLY ON TOMORROW MORNING). AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE MID 90S ON SUNDAY WITH ONLY A VERY
ISOLATEDSHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. /08 JVW AND /23 JMM

SHORT TERM (TOMORROW EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING)...PERIOD IS
RELATIVELY QUIET AND MAINLY DRY. ON SUNDAY EVENING OUR REGION IS
SITUATED BETWEEN THE SRN PLAINS RIDGE AND THE MUCH ADVERTISED CUTOFF
LOW THAT WILL BE LOCATED IN THE SE GLFMEX BY THAT TIME (WHICH IS
OBSERVED TO BE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING AT BASE OF UPPER TROUGH OVER SRN
FL). A DRY POCKET OF AIR IS IN PLACE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND THE
`APPARENT FEEL` TO THE SKIN SHOULD BE QUITE NICE MONDAY MORNING AND
AGAIN ON TUESDAY BEFORE SOME MOISTENING OCCURS BEGINNING AT END OF
THIS PERIOD. THERE IS ACTUALLY VERY LITTLE LARGE SCALE CHANGE DURING
THE PERIOD AS ERN PERIPHERY OF SRN PLAINS RIDGE DOMINATES OUR
REGIONAL WEATHER PATTERN. HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER
OVER LAND AREAS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND RE-INTRODUCED BY
TUESDAY...AND MAINLY CONFINED TO THE SEA-BREEZE. A MID-LEVEL CLOUD
BAND MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO
TUESDAY BUT THIS HAS LITTLE EFFECT IN RAISING RAIN CHANCES. THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL STILL OPPOSE THE TUESDAY AFTERNOON SEA-
BREEZE FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON...SO BEST BET FOR PCPN WILL BE ALONG
THE COASTAL AREAS. WITH LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND MORE
SENSIBLE HEATING... EXPECT UPPER 90S IN THE INTERIOR MONDAY AFTERNOON
RANGING TO NEAR 94 ALONG THE BEACHES. MORNING LOWS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 70S BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS. /23 JMM

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)...THE ERN
GLFMEX UPPER LOW (WITH A SFC REFLECTION) SLOWLY DRIFTS NWD ALL WEEK
INTO THE NERN GLFMEX AND FINALLY GLOBAL SPECTRAL MODELS ARE IN BETTER
AGREEMENT AND SHOW DEEPENING BY FRIDAY AS A RESERVOIR OF ISENTROPIC
POTENTIAL VORTICITY ROTATES AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE AND DROPS SSWD
INTO ERN GLFMEX (TUE-THU TIME-FRAME). A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXIST EACH DAY AS GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS LOWER AND BOTH
AMPLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY EXIST TO FORCE PARCELS TO THEIR LFC.
ON FRIDAY...A PROGRESSIVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE OHVLY AND
TRAILING MUCH FURTHER SOUTHWARD...PICKS UP THE FEATURE AND TAKES IT
TO THE NORTH ALONG THE E COAST. THE GFS`S DEPICTION OF THE SFC LOW
COMES A LITTLE CLOSER TO OUR REGION VERSUS THE ECMWF...BUT IT WOULD
BE IRRELEVANT SINCE THE FEATURE LIFTS NEWD AND WE ARE OVERWHELMED
ONCE AGAIN BY A NLY FLOW INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND ANOTHER FRONTAL ZONE
APPROACHES AND BOTH MODELS SHOW DEEP-LAYER DRYING FRIDAY NIGHT AND
INTO SATURDAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE FORECAST IN THE MID 90S WHICH IS
STILL ABOVE NORMAL. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. /23 JMM

MARINE...A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF. A GENERALLY WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN FOLLOWS IN ITS WAKE AND
PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...BRINGING LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEA
HEIGHTS. NO MARINE HAZARDS EXCEPT FOR DAILY THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL
FORM OVER LAND AND MOVE INTO BAYS AND EVENTUALLY OUT INTO GULF
WATERS...ESPECIALLY AFTER TUESDAY. /23 JMM AND /08 JVW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      75  94  74  97  75 /  10  10  05  10  10
PENSACOLA   75  93  76  94  77 /  10  10  05  10  10
DESTIN      80  91  78  93  79 /  10  10  05  10  10
EVERGREEN   73  96  73  98  74 /  10  10  05  10  05
WAYNESBORO  72  96  73  98  74 /  10  10  05  10  05
CAMDEN      73  96  73  98  74 /  10  10  05  10  05
CRESTVIEW   73  97  73  98  74 /  10  10  05  10  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMOB 260456
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1156 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.AVIATION...29/06Z ISSUANCE...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER
NEXT 24 HOURS. POSSIBLY LIGHT...PATCHY GROUND FOG RESULTING IN MVFR
VSBYS IN SOME LOCATIONS TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY...BUT OTHERWISE NO
RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY. CONVECTION CHANCES MUCH LOWER ON SUNDAY...LESS
THAN 20 PERCENT...AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS SHIFTED SOUTH INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF AND DRIER AND SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE AIR MOVES INTO THE
REGION. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH SUNRISE THIS MORNING...THEN
PRIMARILY SOUTHEASTERLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY
BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN SUNDAY EVENING. 12/DS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015/

NEAR TERM (TONIGHT AND TOMORROW)...AN ELONGATED DEEPLY-REFLECTED
RIDGE EXTENDS MERIDIONALLY FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC. OUR REGION REMAINS IN A DEEP N-NE FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD
AND DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT IN FROM THE NORTH. THE SFC
PRESSURE PATTERN REMAINS RELATIVELY FLAT. AS SFC DEWPOINTS DROP
OVERNIGHT...IT WILL NOT FEEL AS HUMID AND STICKY BEGINNING LATER
THIS EVENING (AND ESPECIALLY ON TOMORROW MORNING). AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE MID 90S ON SUNDAY WITH ONLY A VERY
ISOLATEDSHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. /08 JVW AND /23 JMM

SHORT TERM (TOMORROW EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING)...PERIOD IS
RELATIVELY QUIET AND MAINLY DRY. ON SUNDAY EVENING OUR REGION IS
SITUATED BETWEEN THE SRN PLAINS RIDGE AND THE MUCH ADVERTISED CUTOFF
LOW THAT WILL BE LOCATED IN THE SE GLFMEX BY THAT TIME (WHICH IS
OBSERVED TO BE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING AT BASE OF UPPER TROUGH OVER SRN
FL). A DRY POCKET OF AIR IS IN PLACE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND THE
`APPARENT FEEL` TO THE SKIN SHOULD BE QUITE NICE MONDAY MORNING AND
AGAIN ON TUESDAY BEFORE SOME MOISTENING OCCURS BEGINNING AT END OF
THIS PERIOD. THERE IS ACTUALLY VERY LITTLE LARGE SCALE CHANGE DURING
THE PERIOD AS ERN PERIPHERY OF SRN PLAINS RIDGE DOMINATES OUR
REGIONAL WEATHER PATTERN. HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER
OVER LAND AREAS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND RE-INTRODUCED BY
TUESDAY...AND MAINLY CONFINED TO THE SEA-BREEZE. A MID-LEVEL CLOUD
BAND MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO
TUESDAY BUT THIS HAS LITTLE EFFECT IN RAISING RAIN CHANCES. THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL STILL OPPOSE THE TUESDAY AFTERNOON SEA-
BREEZE FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON...SO BEST BET FOR PCPN WILL BE ALONG
THE COASTAL AREAS. WITH LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND MORE
SENSIBLE HEATING... EXPECT UPPER 90S IN THE INTERIOR MONDAY AFTERNOON
RANGING TO NEAR 94 ALONG THE BEACHES. MORNING LOWS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 70S BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS. /23 JMM

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)...THE ERN
GLFMEX UPPER LOW (WITH A SFC REFLECTION) SLOWLY DRIFTS NWD ALL WEEK
INTO THE NERN GLFMEX AND FINALLY GLOBAL SPECTRAL MODELS ARE IN BETTER
AGREEMENT AND SHOW DEEPENING BY FRIDAY AS A RESERVOIR OF ISENTROPIC
POTENTIAL VORTICITY ROTATES AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE AND DROPS SSWD
INTO ERN GLFMEX (TUE-THU TIME-FRAME). A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXIST EACH DAY AS GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS LOWER AND BOTH
AMPLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY EXIST TO FORCE PARCELS TO THEIR LFC.
ON FRIDAY...A PROGRESSIVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE OHVLY AND
TRAILING MUCH FURTHER SOUTHWARD...PICKS UP THE FEATURE AND TAKES IT
TO THE NORTH ALONG THE E COAST. THE GFS`S DEPICTION OF THE SFC LOW
COMES A LITTLE CLOSER TO OUR REGION VERSUS THE ECMWF...BUT IT WOULD
BE IRRELEVANT SINCE THE FEATURE LIFTS NEWD AND WE ARE OVERWHELMED
ONCE AGAIN BY A NLY FLOW INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND ANOTHER FRONTAL ZONE
APPROACHES AND BOTH MODELS SHOW DEEP-LAYER DRYING FRIDAY NIGHT AND
INTO SATURDAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE FORECAST IN THE MID 90S WHICH IS
STILL ABOVE NORMAL. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. /23 JMM

MARINE...A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF. A GENERALLY WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN FOLLOWS IN ITS WAKE AND
PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...BRINGING LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEA
HEIGHTS. NO MARINE HAZARDS EXCEPT FOR DAILY THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL
FORM OVER LAND AND MOVE INTO BAYS AND EVENTUALLY OUT INTO GULF
WATERS...ESPECIALLY AFTER TUESDAY. /23 JMM AND /08 JVW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      75  94  74  97  75 /  10  10  05  10  10
PENSACOLA   75  93  76  94  77 /  10  10  05  10  10
DESTIN      80  91  78  93  79 /  10  10  05  10  10
EVERGREEN   73  96  73  98  74 /  10  10  05  10  05
WAYNESBORO  72  96  73  98  74 /  10  10  05  10  05
CAMDEN      73  96  73  98  74 /  10  10  05  10  05
CRESTVIEW   73  97  73  98  74 /  10  10  05  10  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




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