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000
FXUS64 KMOB 250943
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
443 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SHORT TERM [TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT]...A STRONG SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY OVER THE GA/SC COAST WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST INTO THE
SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC THROUGH TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...A LARGE MID TO UPPER
RIDGE CENTERED OVER TEXAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD EAST WHILE A BROAD
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS PERSISTS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS ALL RESULTS IN A
CONTINUATION OF DRY WEATHER AND CLEAR SKIES. 1000-850MB THICKNESSES
ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE BY 10 METERS OR SO THIS AFTERNOON WHICH
CORRESPONDS TO A 3-4 DEGREE INCREASE IN HIGHS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.
MOST LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT AROUND 80. LOWS DROP INTO THE
LOW TO MID 50S TONIGHT...EXCEPT FOR UPPER 50S CLOSE TO THE COAST.
34/JFB

A DEEP LAYER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION SUNDAY. A DEEP DRY AIRMASS WILL HOLD IN
PLACE WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGHS SUNDAY
WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 80 NEAR THE COAST TO THE LOWER TO MID 80S
INLAND. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO
MID 50S INLAND TO THE LOWER TO MID 60S NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. /21

.LONG TERM [MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY]...THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL ADVANCE
EASTWARD AND BECOME CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF THE FL PENINSULA AND
THE ADJACENT WESTERN ATLANTIC MONDAY...WHILE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
RETURNS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT
TROUGH DEEPENING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. THIS NEXT TROUGH WILL MOVE
EASTWARD TOWARD THE OH/TN REGION TUESDAY WHILE AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT ALSO STRETCHES FROM THE OH/TN VALLEY SOUTHWESTWARD INTO
SOUTHEAST TX. DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY GIVEN A
PERSISTENT DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THESE
FEATURES. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 1 AND
1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SLOWLY SAGS SOUTHWARD TOWARD OUR REGION. WE WILL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH
THIS BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY OF THE CWFA. MOISTURE WILL SHIFT SOUTH
OF THE REGION LATE THURSDAY WITH A REINFORCEMENT OF COOLER AND DRIER
AIR MOVING IN BY FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS/UPPER MIDWESTERN STATES TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. /21

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 34/JFB

&&

.MARINE...A MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH BY EARLY SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE TEXAS
COAST WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EAST. THE HIGHS MOVES EAST INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC BY MONDAY...RESULTING IN A LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW
MONDAY/TUESDAY. A LIGHT TO MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS BY LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE COASTAL WATERS
FROM THE NORTH. 2-3 FT SEAS EARLY THIS MORNING SETTLE TO 1-2 FT LATE
TONIGHT AND WILL SLIGHTLY BUILD AGAIN BY TUESDAY. 34/JFB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      80  57  83  59  82 /  00  00  00  00  00
PENSACOLA   79  60  82  61  82 /  00  00  00  00  00
DESTIN      77  62  79  64  80 /  00  00  00  00  00
EVERGREEN   80  51  84  54  83 /  00  00  00  00  00
WAYNESBORO  80  52  85  54  83 /  00  00  00  00  00
CAMDEN      79  52  85  54  84 /  00  00  00  00  00
CRESTVIEW   80  49  84  55  83 /  00  00  00  00  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMOB 250446 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1146 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.AVIATION...
25.06Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 26.06Z. A LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND WILL CONTINUE.
/22

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SATURDAY)...AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES THE AXIS OF THE UPPER SHORTWAVE IS MOVING EAST OF THE AREA.
DUE TO THE VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE...IT WAS BARELY ABLE TO CAUSE A FEW
CLOUDS. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A DRY NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AND WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING TO OUR WEST...A COOL
AND DRY NORTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE. AS A
RESULT...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL AGAIN FALL INTO THE LOW AND MID 40S INLAND
TONIGHT TO UPPER 50S ALONG THE COAST. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL WARM A
COUPLE OF DEGREES TO AROUND 80 IN MOST LOCATIONS. 13/JC

(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...RIDGING AT BOTH THE SFC AND
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND. LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY
SFC FLOW WILL TURN MORE EAST TO SOUTHEAST BUT REMAIN LIGHT AS THE SFC
RIDGE SLIDES EAST TO THE ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURES TO MODIFY SLIGHTLY OVER THE LAST PART OF
THE WEEKEND ESPECIALLY WITH REGARD TO DAYTIME HIGHS. ON SUNDAY LOOK
FOR MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S OVER INTERIOR ZONES...UPPER 70S
AND LOWER 80S AT THE COAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS SIMILAR BOTH SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT...LOW TO MID 50S INTERIOR AND UPPER 50S (AND
EVEN A FEW LOWER 60S) COASTAL. SKIES REMAINING MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH
THE PERIOD. 12/DS

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...NO CHANGES MADE TO LONGER TERM
FCST THIS AFTERNOON. STILL LOOKING AT AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE DURING
THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK AS A STRONGER FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS
SOUTH IN THE GULF COAST STATES. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE
EXPECTED. PRECIPITABLE WATERS ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB TO 1.25-1.5
INCHES BY MIDWEEK...BUT THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS ARE STILL FORECAST TO
REMAIN FAIRLY DRY. SO WHILE HUMIDITY LEVELS INCREASE THROUGH THE
COURSE OF THE WEEK...WILL ONLY INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN
WED/THU AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONS TO SEMI-ZONAL. ANY COLD FRONT
PASSAGE LOOKS TO BE DELAYED TO JUST BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD.
12/DS & 34/JFB

MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW A NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND TO BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY ON MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH
MIDWEEK. 13/JC

FIRE WEATHER...NO HEADLINES. RED FLAG CRITERIA ABOVE CRITICAL
LEVELS. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      51  80  58  83  59 /  00  00  00  00  00
PENSACOLA   55  80  60  82  62 /  00  00  00  00  00
DESTIN      59  79  66  79  64 /  00  00  00  00  00
EVERGREEN   44  80  51  84  50 /  00  00  00  00  00
WAYNESBORO  46  82  51  85  53 /  00  00  00  00  00
CAMDEN      44  80  51  85  50 /  00  00  00  00  00
CRESTVIEW   42  81  49  84  50 /  00  00  00  00  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KMOB 242333 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
633 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.AVIATION...
25.00Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 26.00Z. A LIGHT NORTHERLY
WIND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 26.00Z 32/EE

&&

.MARINE...MADE MINOR TWEAKS MOSTLY TO THE INSHORE WATERS INCREASING
WINDS SLIGHTLY FOR COLD AIR DRAINAGE EARLY SAT MORNING. 32/EE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SATURDAY)...AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES THE AXIS OF THE UPPER SHORTWAVE IS MOVING EAST OF THE AREA.
DUE TO THE VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE...IT WAS BARELY ABLE TO CAUSE A FEW
CLOUDS. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A DRY NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AND WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING TO OUR WEST...A COOL
AND DRY NORTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE. AS A
RESULT...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL AGAIN FALL INTO THE LOW AND MID 40S INLAND
TONIGHT TO UPPER 50S ALONG THE COAST. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL WARM A
COUPLE OF DEGREES TO AROUND 80 IN MOST LOCATIONS. 13/JC

(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...RIDGING AT BOTH THE SFC AND
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND. LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY
SFC FLOW WILL TURN MORE EAST TO SOUTHEAST BUT REMAIN LIGHT AS THE SFC
RIDGE SLIDES EAST TO THE ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURES TO MODIFY SLIGHTLY OVER THE LAST PART OF
THE WEEKEND ESPECIALLY WITH REGARD TO DAYTIME HIGHS. ON SUNDAY LOOK
FOR MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S OVER INTERIOR ZONES...UPPER 70S
AND LOWER 80S AT THE COAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS SIMILAR BOTH SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT...LOW TO MID 50S INTERIOR AND UPPER 50S (AND
EVEN A FEW LOWER 60S) COASTAL. SKIES REMAINING MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH
THE PERIOD. 12/DS

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...NO CHANGES MADE TO LONGER TERM
FCST THIS AFTERNOON. STILL LOOKING AT AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE DURING
THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK AS A STRONGER FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS
SOUTH IN THE GULF COAST STATES. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE
EXPECTED. PRECIPITABLE WATERS ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB TO 1.25-1.5
INCHES BY MIDWEEK...BUT THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS ARE STILL FORECAST TO
REMAIN FAIRLY DRY. SO WHILE HUMIDITY LEVELS INCREASE THROUGH THE
COURSE OF THE WEEK...WILL ONLY INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN
WED/THU AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONS TO SEMI-ZONAL. ANY COLD FRONT
PASSAGE LOOKS TO BE DELAYED TO JUST BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD.
12/DS & 34/JFB

AVIATION...
25.00Z ISSUANCE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST UNDER LIGHT NORTHERLY
FLOW. 13/JC

MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW A NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEKEND TO BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY ON MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH
MIDWEEK. 13/JC

FIRE WEATHER...NO HEADLINES. RED FLAG CRITERIA ABOVE CRITICAL
LEVELS. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      76  51  80  58  83 /  00  00  00  00  00
PENSACOLA   76  55  80  60  82 /  00  00  00  00  00
DESTIN      75  59  79  66  79 /  00  00  00  00  00
EVERGREEN   75  44  80  51  84 /  00  00  00  00  00
WAYNESBORO  76  46  82  51  85 /  00  00  00  00  00
CAMDEN      76  44  80  51  85 /  00  00  00  00  00
CRESTVIEW   76  42  81  49  84 /  00  00  00  00  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KMOB 242053
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
353 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SATURDAY)...AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES THE AXIS OF THE UPPER SHORTWAVE IS MOVING EAST OF THE AREA.
DUE TO THE VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE...IT WAS BARELY ABLE TO CAUSE A FEW
CLOUDS. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A DRY NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AND WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING TO OUR WEST...A COOL
AND DRY NORTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE. AS A
RESULT...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL AGAIN FALL INTO THE LOW AND MID 40S INLAND
TONIGHT TO UPPER 50S ALONG THE COAST. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL WARM A
COUPLE OF DEGREES TO AROUND 80 IN MOST LOCATIONS. 13/JC

.(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...RIDGING AT BOTH THE SFC AND
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND. LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY
SFC FLOW WILL TURN MORE EAST TO SOUTHEAST BUT REMAIN LIGHT AS THE SFC
RIDGE SLIDES EAST TO THE ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURES TO MODIFY SLIGHTLY OVER THE LAST PART OF
THE WEEKEND ESPECIALLY WITH REGARD TO DAYTIME HIGHS. ON SUNDAY LOOK
FOR MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S OVER INTERIOR ZONES...UPPER 70S
AND LOWER 80S AT THE COAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS SIMILAR BOTH SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT...LOW TO MID 50S INTERIOR AND UPPER 50S (AND
EVEN A FEW LOWER 60S) COASTAL. SKIES REMAINING MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH
THE PERIOD. 12/DS

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...NO CHANGES MADE TO LONGER TERM
FCST THIS AFTERNOON. STILL LOOKING AT AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE DURING
THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK AS A STRONGER FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS
SOUTH IN THE GULF COAST STATES. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE
EXPECTED. PRECIPITABLE WATERS ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB TO 1.25-1.5
INCHES BY MIDWEEK...BUT THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS ARE STILL FORECAST TO
REMAIN FAIRLY DRY. SO WHILE HUMIDITY LEVELS INCREASE THROUGH THE
COURSE OF THE WEEK...WILL ONLY INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN
WED/THU AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONS TO SEMI-ZONAL. ANY COLD FRONT
PASSAGE LOOKS TO BE DELAYED TO JUST BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD.
12/DS & 34/JFB

&&

.AVIATION...
25.00Z ISSUANCE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST UNDER LIGHT NORTHERLY
FLOW. 13/JC

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW A NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEKEND TO BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY ON MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH
MIDWEEK. 13/JC

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO HEADLINES. RED FLAG CRITERIA ABOVE CRITICAL
LEVELS. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      51  80  58  83  59 /  00  00  00  00  00
PENSACOLA   55  80  60  82  62 /  00  00  00  00  00
DESTIN      59  79  66  79  64 /  00  00  00  00  00
EVERGREEN   44  80  51  84  50 /  00  00  00  00  00
WAYNESBORO  46  82  51  85  53 /  00  00  00  00  00
CAMDEN      44  80  51  85  50 /  00  00  00  00  00
CRESTVIEW   42  81  49  84  50 /  00  00  00  00  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KMOB 241720 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1220 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.UPDATE...A SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WITH LITTLE
FANFARE DUE TO THE VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE. THE ONGOING
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AND NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED. /13

.AVIATION...
18Z ISSUANCE
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST UNDER LIGHT NORTHERLY
FLOW. /13

&&

...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 337 AM...

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH STRETCHING
SOUTH ACROSS THE FA ATTM MOVES EAST...THE CLOUD OVER ASSOCIATED WITH
IT MOVES OFF...LEAVING CLEAR SKIES TODAY AND TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN US ROCKIES SHIFTS
EAST...TO OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE PLAINS. THIS WILL HELP TO
BUILD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY AND KEEP
THE FA UNDER LIGHT TO AT TIMES MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE
FIRST TWO PERIODS OF THE FORECAST.

EVEN WITH UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE STARTING TO BUILD A BIT OVER THE
FA...AM EXPECTING THE EXITING UPPER TROUGH TO WORK WITH THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY TO PUSH COOLER AIR
OVER THE FA AND KEEP TEMPS AROUND TO A BIT BELOW SEASONAL. /16

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
OVER THE CENTRAL STATES WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND...AND WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
RESULTS IN A MODERATING TREND IN TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS CLIMBING TO
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY SUNDAY AND CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEK. SURFACE
RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA WILL KEEP LOWS NEAR NORMAL SUNDAY MORNING...
BUT LOWS WILL TREND TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS AFTER THAT AS THE HIGH
MOVES EAST AND A SOUTHERLY FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED.

A DEEP LAYER SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS BY LATE MONDAY AND
WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...RESULTING IN A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE VALUES. PRECIPITABLE WATERS ARE
FORECAST TO CLIMB TO 1.25-1.5 INCHES BY MIDWEEK...BUT THE MID TO
UPPER LEVELS ARE STILL FORECAST TO REMAIN FAIRLY DRY. SO WHILE
HUMIDITY LEVELS INCREASE THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE WEEK...WILL ONLY
INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN WED/THU AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW
TRANSITIONS TO SEMI-ZONAL. ANY COLD FRONT PASSAGE LOOKS TO BE DELAYED
TO JUST BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD. 34/JFB

&&

.MARINE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOODLE AROUND OVER THE LOWER
MISS RIVER VALLEY INTO SUNDAY...KEEPING AREA COASTAL WATERS UNDER
LIGHT TO AT TIMES MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY MOVING EAST OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL PUSH THE SURFACE HIGH
EAST OF THE FA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...RESTORING A MORE ORGANIZED
ONSHORE FLOW BY MONDAY. LIGHT TO AT TIMES MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL
LAST OVER THE AREA INTO MID WEEK. /16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      76  50  78  55  83 /  00  00  00  00  00
PENSACOLA   76  53  79  58  82 /  00  00  00  00  00
DESTIN      75  55  78  61  78 /  00  00  00  00  00
EVERGREEN   75  43  78  50  84 /  00  00  00  00  00
WAYNESBORO  76  44  80  51  84 /  00  00  00  00  00
CAMDEN      76  43  78  50  84 /  00  00  00  00  00
CRESTVIEW   76  42  79  51  83 /  00  00  00  00  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$













000
FXUS64 KMOB 240837
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
337 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH STRETCHING
SOUTH ACROSS THE FA ATTM MOVES EAST...THE CLOUD OVER ASSOCIATED WITH
IT MOVES OFF...LEAVING CLEAR SKIES TODAY AND TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN US ROCKIES SHIFTS
EAST...TO OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE PLAINS. THIS WILL HELP TO
BUILD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY AND KEEP
THE FA UNDER LIGHT TO AT TIMES MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE
FIRST TWO PERIODS OF THE FORECAST.

EVEN WITH UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE STARTING TO BUILD A BIT OVER THE
FA...AM EXPECTING THE EXITING UPPER TROUGH TO WORK WITH THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY TO PUSH COOLER AIR
OVER THE FA AND KEEP TEMPS AROUND TO A BIT BELOW SEASONAL. /16

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
OVER THE CENTRAL STATES WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND...AND WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
RESULTS IN A MODERATING TREND IN TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS CLIMBING TO
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY SUNDAY AND CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEK. SURFACE
RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA WILL KEEP LOWS NEAR NORMAL SUNDAY MORNING...
BUT LOWS WILL TREND TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS AFTER THAT AS THE HIGH
MOVES EAST AND A SOUTHERLY FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED.

A DEEP LAYER SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS BY LATE MONDAY AND
WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...RESULTING IN A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE VALUES. PRECIPITABLE WATERS ARE
FORECAST TO CLIMB TO 1.25-1.5 INCHES BY MIDWEEK...BUT THE MID TO
UPPER LEVELS ARE STILL FORECAST TO REMAIN FAIRLY DRY. SO WHILE
HUMIDITY LEVELS INCREASE THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE WEEK...WILL ONLY
INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN WED/THU AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW
TRANSITIONS TO SEMI-ZONAL. ANY COLD FRONT PASSAGE LOOKS TO BE DELAYED
TO JUST BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD. 34/JFB

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST UNDER LIGHT NORTHERLY
FLOW. /16

&&

.MARINE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOODLE AROUND OVER THE LOWER
MISS RIVER VALLEY INTO SUNDAY...KEEPING AREA COASTAL WATERS UNDER
LIGHT TO AT TIMES MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY MOVING EAST OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL PUSH THE SURFACE HIGH
EAST OF THE FA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...RESTORING A MORE ORGANIZED
ONSHORE FLOW BY MONDAY. LIGHT TO AT TIMES MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL
LAST OVER THE AREA INTO MID WEEK. /16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      76  50  78  55  83 /  00  00  00  00  00
PENSACOLA   76  53  79  58  82 /  00  00  00  00  00
DESTIN      75  55  78  61  78 /  00  00  00  00  00
EVERGREEN   75  43  78  50  84 /  00  00  00  00  00
WAYNESBORO  76  44  80  51  84 /  00  00  00  00  00
CAMDEN      76  43  78  50  84 /  00  00  00  00  00
CRESTVIEW   76  42  79  51  83 /  00  00  00  00  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KMOB 240453 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1153 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.AVIATION...
24.00Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST WITH ONLY BROKEN TO
OCCASIONAL OVERCAST MID LEVEL CLOUDS (~15000 FEET) EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH 24.17Z. LIGHT NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE. /22

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY]...AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
EAST FROM OVER THE MISS RIVER VALLEY...INCREASED MID/UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDINESS WILL SIGNAL ITS PASSAGE THE EARLY PART OF TONIGHT...THEN
SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT. THIS INITIAL CLOUD CLOVER WILL HELP
TO LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT...AND
COUNTERACT THE LIGHT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY. TEMPS AROUND TO A BIT BELOW
SEASONAL EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH A DECREASED VIEW OF THE PARTIAL
ECLIPSE EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

FRIDAY...WITH THE SHORTWAVE EAST OF THE FA...CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED...WITH TEMPS A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS UNDER LIGHT NORTH
TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. /16

A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST INTO
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY
AS A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHWEST GULF
OF MEXICO TO THE TN VALLEY REGION. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOWER TO MID 40S INLAND TO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S NEAR THE
COAST. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 ACROSS
THE REGION. /21

LONG TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY]...A MID LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO SUNDAY BEFORE BECOMING
CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF THE FL PENINSULA AND ADJACENT WESTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN MONDAY. VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE THROUGH THE
DEEP LAYERS WILL BE IN PLACE OVER OUR FORECAST AREA...SO A DRY
FORECAST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. SURFACE RIDGING WILL EXTEND
OVER THE GULF COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE SHIFTING TOWARD THE
EAST COAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. LOW
LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
WHICH WILL BRING INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION.
THE INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD BRING WARMER LOW TEMPERATURES
EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK...WHILE HIGH TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO AVERAGE
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES. MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE NEXT MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD
OVER THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY REGION INTO THE CANADIAN PROVINCES BY
WEDNESDAY. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS
EASTWARD AND SHOULD STRETCH FROM EAST TEXAS THROUGH THE LOWER MS AND
TN VALLEY REGION BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...BEFORE PERHAPS BECOMING
FOCUSED A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
REGION BY THURSDAY. WE WILL MAINTAIN AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS THIS FEATURE
APPROACHES. /21

AVIATION...
18Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST UNDER
LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW. /16

MARINE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOODLE AROUND OVER THE LOWER
MISS RIVER VALLEY INTO SUNDAY...KEEPING AREA COASTAL WATERS UNDER
LIGHT TO AT TIMES MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY MOVING EAST OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL PUSH THE SURFACE HIGH
EAST OF THE FA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...RESTORING A MORE ORGANIZED
ONSHORE FLOW BY MONDAY. LIGHT TO AT TIMES MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL
LAST OVER THE AREA INTO MID WEEK. /16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      49  77  49  77  55 /  00  00  00  00  00
PENSACOLA   52  78  53  78  58 /  00  00  00  00  00
DESTIN      54  76  55  77  62 /  00  00  00  00  00
EVERGREEN   42  77  43  77  50 /  00  00  00  00  00
WAYNESBORO  43  76  45  79  51 /  00  00  00  00  00
CAMDEN      44  77  43  78  50 /  00  00  00  00  00
CRESTVIEW   41  78  42  79  50 /  00  00  00  00  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KMOB 240453 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1153 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.AVIATION...
24.00Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST WITH ONLY BROKEN TO
OCCASIONAL OVERCAST MID LEVEL CLOUDS (~15000 FEET) EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH 24.17Z. LIGHT NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE. /22

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY]...AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
EAST FROM OVER THE MISS RIVER VALLEY...INCREASED MID/UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDINESS WILL SIGNAL ITS PASSAGE THE EARLY PART OF TONIGHT...THEN
SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT. THIS INITIAL CLOUD CLOVER WILL HELP
TO LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT...AND
COUNTERACT THE LIGHT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY. TEMPS AROUND TO A BIT BELOW
SEASONAL EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH A DECREASED VIEW OF THE PARTIAL
ECLIPSE EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

FRIDAY...WITH THE SHORTWAVE EAST OF THE FA...CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED...WITH TEMPS A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS UNDER LIGHT NORTH
TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. /16

A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST INTO
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY
AS A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHWEST GULF
OF MEXICO TO THE TN VALLEY REGION. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOWER TO MID 40S INLAND TO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S NEAR THE
COAST. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 ACROSS
THE REGION. /21

LONG TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY]...A MID LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO SUNDAY BEFORE BECOMING
CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF THE FL PENINSULA AND ADJACENT WESTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN MONDAY. VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE THROUGH THE
DEEP LAYERS WILL BE IN PLACE OVER OUR FORECAST AREA...SO A DRY
FORECAST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. SURFACE RIDGING WILL EXTEND
OVER THE GULF COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE SHIFTING TOWARD THE
EAST COAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. LOW
LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
WHICH WILL BRING INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION.
THE INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD BRING WARMER LOW TEMPERATURES
EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK...WHILE HIGH TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO AVERAGE
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES. MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE NEXT MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD
OVER THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY REGION INTO THE CANADIAN PROVINCES BY
WEDNESDAY. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS
EASTWARD AND SHOULD STRETCH FROM EAST TEXAS THROUGH THE LOWER MS AND
TN VALLEY REGION BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...BEFORE PERHAPS BECOMING
FOCUSED A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
REGION BY THURSDAY. WE WILL MAINTAIN AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS THIS FEATURE
APPROACHES. /21

AVIATION...
18Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST UNDER
LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW. /16

MARINE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOODLE AROUND OVER THE LOWER
MISS RIVER VALLEY INTO SUNDAY...KEEPING AREA COASTAL WATERS UNDER
LIGHT TO AT TIMES MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY MOVING EAST OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL PUSH THE SURFACE HIGH
EAST OF THE FA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...RESTORING A MORE ORGANIZED
ONSHORE FLOW BY MONDAY. LIGHT TO AT TIMES MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL
LAST OVER THE AREA INTO MID WEEK. /16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      49  77  49  77  55 /  00  00  00  00  00
PENSACOLA   52  78  53  78  58 /  00  00  00  00  00
DESTIN      54  76  55  77  62 /  00  00  00  00  00
EVERGREEN   42  77  43  77  50 /  00  00  00  00  00
WAYNESBORO  43  76  45  79  51 /  00  00  00  00  00
CAMDEN      44  77  43  78  50 /  00  00  00  00  00
CRESTVIEW   41  78  42  79  50 /  00  00  00  00  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KMOB 232326 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
626 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.AVIATION...
24.00Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST WITH ONLY BROKEN TO
OCCASIONAL OVERCAST MID LEVEL CLOUDS (~15000 FEET) EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH 24.18Z. LIGHT NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE. /22

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY]...AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
EAST FROM OVER THE MISS RIVER VALLEY...INCREASED MID/UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDINESS WILL SIGNAL ITS PASSAGE THE EARLY PART OF TONIGHT...THEN
SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT. THIS INITIAL CLOUD CLOVER WILL HELP
TO LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT...AND
COUNTERACT THE LIGHT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY. TEMPS AROUND TO A BIT BELOW
SEASONAL EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH A DECREASED VIEW OF THE PARTIAL
ECLIPSE EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

FRIDAY...WITH THE SHORTWAVE EAST OF THE FA...CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED...WITH TEMPS A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS UNDER LIGHT NORTH
TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. /16

A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST INTO
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY
AS A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHWEST GULF
OF MEXICO TO THE TN VALLEY REGION. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOWER TO MID 40S INLAND TO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S NEAR THE
COAST. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 ACROSS
THE REGION. /21

LONG TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY]...A MID LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO SUNDAY BEFORE BECOMING
CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF THE FL PENINSULA AND ADJACENT WESTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN MONDAY. VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE THROUGH THE
DEEP LAYERS WILL BE IN PLACE OVER OUR FORECAST AREA...SO A DRY
FORECAST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. SURFACE RIDGING WILL EXTEND
OVER THE GULF COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE SHIFTING TOWARD THE
EAST COAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. LOW
LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
WHICH WILL BRING INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION.
THE INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD BRING WARMER LOW TEMPERATURES
EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK...WHILE HIGH TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO AVERAGE
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES. MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE NEXT MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD
OVER THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY REGION INTO THE CANADIAN PROVINCES BY
WEDNESDAY. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS
EASTWARD AND SHOULD STRETCH FROM EAST TEXAS THROUGH THE LOWER MS AND
TN VALLEY REGION BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...BEFORE PERHAPS BECOMING
FOCUSED A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
REGION BY THURSDAY. WE WILL MAINTAIN AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS THIS FEATURE
APPROACHES. /21

AVIATION...
18Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST UNDER
LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW. /16

MARINE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOODLE AROUND OVER THE LOWER
MISS RIVER VALLEY INTO SUNDAY...KEEPING AREA COASTAL WATERS UNDER
LIGHT TO AT TIMES MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY MOVING EAST OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL PUSH THE SURFACE HIGH
EAST OF THE FA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...RESTORING A MORE ORGANIZED
ONSHORE FLOW BY MONDAY. LIGHT TO AT TIMES MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL
LAST OVER THE AREA INTO MID WEEK. /16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      49  77  49  77  55 /  00  00  00  00  00
PENSACOLA   52  78  53  78  58 /  00  00  00  00  00
DESTIN      54  76  55  77  62 /  00  00  00  00  00
EVERGREEN   42  77  43  77  50 /  00  00  00  00  00
WAYNESBORO  43  76  45  79  51 /  00  00  00  00  00
CAMDEN      44  77  43  78  50 /  00  00  00  00  00
CRESTVIEW   41  78  42  79  50 /  00  00  00  00  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KMOB 232025
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
325 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY]...AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
EAST FROM OVER THE MISS RIVER VALLEY...INCREASED MID/UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDINESS WILL SIGNAL ITS PASSAGE THE EARLY PART OF TONIGHT...THEN
SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT. THIS INITIAL CLOUD CLOVER WILL HELP
TO LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT...AND
COUNTERACT THE LIGHT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY. TEMPS AROUND TO A BIT BELOW
SEASONAL EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH A DECREASED VIEW OF THE PARTIAL
ECLIPSE EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

FRIDAY...WITH THE SHORTWAVE EAST OF THE FA...CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED...WITH TEMPS A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS UNDER LIGHT NORTH
TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. /16

A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST INTO
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY
AS A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHWEST GULF
OF MEXICO TO THE TN VALLEY REGION. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOWER TO MID 40S INLAND TO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S NEAR THE
COAST. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 ACROSS
THE REGION. /21

.LONG TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY]...A MID LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO SUNDAY BEFORE BECOMING
CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF THE FL PENINSULA AND ADJACENT WESTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN MONDAY. VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE THROUGH THE
DEEP LAYERS WILL BE IN PLACE OVER OUR FORECAST AREA...SO A DRY
FORECAST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. SURFACE RIDGING WILL EXTEND
OVER THE GULF COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE SHIFTING TOWARD THE
EAST COAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. LOW
LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
WHICH WILL BRING INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION.
THE INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD BRING WARMER LOW TEMPERATURES
EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK...WHILE HIGH TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO AVERAGE
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES. MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE NEXT MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD
OVER THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY REGION INTO THE CANADIAN PROVINCES BY
WEDNESDAY. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS
EASTWARD AND SHOULD STRETCH FROM EAST TEXAS THROUGH THE LOWER MS AND
TN VALLEY REGION BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...BEFORE PERHAPS BECOMING
FOCUSED A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
REGION BY THURSDAY. WE WILL MAINTAIN AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS THIS FEATURE
APPROACHES. /21

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST UNDER
LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW. /16

&&

.MARINE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOODLE AROUND OVER THE LOWER
MISS RIVER VALLEY INTO SUNDAY...KEEPING AREA COASTAL WATERS UNDER
LIGHT TO AT TIMES MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY MOVING EAST OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL PUSH THE SURFACE HIGH
EAST OF THE FA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...RESTORING A MORE ORGANIZED
ONSHORE FLOW BY MONDAY. LIGHT TO AT TIMES MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL
LAST OVER THE AREA INTO MID WEEK. /16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      49  77  49  77  55 /  00  00  00  00  00
PENSACOLA   52  78  53  78  58 /  00  00  00  00  00
DESTIN      54  76  55  77  62 /  00  00  00  00  00
EVERGREEN   42  77  43  77  50 /  00  00  00  00  00
WAYNESBORO  43  76  45  79  51 /  00  00  00  00  00
CAMDEN      44  77  43  78  50 /  00  00  00  00  00
CRESTVIEW   41  78  42  79  50 /  00  00  00  00  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMOB 231706 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM AND AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1210 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...CURRENT PACKAGE ON TRACK...WITH NARY A CLOUD IN THE SKY AT
NOONTIME. TEMP CURVE ALSO ON TRACK. NO UPDATES PLANNED.

/16

&&

.AVIATION...
10Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST UNDER
LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW.

/16

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...AXIS OF HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE
LOCATED NEAR THE MS/AL BORDER THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE
CWFA AND WEAKEN THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING IN RESPONSE TO
PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF TRACKING EASTWARD...MOVING
FROM E TX TO NEAR THE AL/GA BORDER BY 12Z FRI. WITH NO RETURN OR
SOUTHERLY FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM NO RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH MAYBE A FEW EXTRA MID TO HIGH CLOUDS GENERALLY MOVING
FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE SLIGHTLY
DRIER/COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT SOUTH OVER THE REGION
LEADING TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY AND SEASONABLE TEMPS. AS FOR
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO USE A BLEND OF THE MAV AND MET GUIDANCE DUE
TO BETTER MIXING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HIGHS TODAY WILL CLIMB TO THE MID 70S FOR MOST AREAS IN THE CWFA
WITH LOWS TONIGHT FALLING TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S OVER INLAND
AREAS AND THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST. 32/EE

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
WILL DIG SOUTHEAST FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC
SEABOARD ON FRIDAY...REINFORCING THE COOL AND DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION. THEREFORE...ANOTHER DAY OF NORMAL HIGHS (MID TO
UPPER 70S) CAN BE EXPECTED WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT BELOW NORMAL (MID
TO UPPER 40S) GIVEN LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE AREA.

A MODERATING TREND COMMENCES OVER THE WEEKEND AS A LARGE MID TO
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY MOVES EAST.
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE LOW 80S BY SUNDAY WITH LOWS
TRENDING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL WITH DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING.

THE RIDGE ALOFT SHIFTS FURTHER EAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER
TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE PLAINS STATES.
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS OUR REGION AS THE
DEEP LAYER FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN ENTERING THE PICTURE BY
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL MON-WED WITH HUMIDITY
VALUES ALSO INCREASING. 34/JFB

&&

.MARINE...A MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW THIS MORNING
WILL DIMINISH LATE TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT THEN REBUILD SLIGHTLY
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY FRI MORNING DUE TO COLD AIR DRAINAGE. OTHERWISE
A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF STATES AND NORTH CENTRAL GULF THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST
THOUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY A WEAK ONSHORE FLOW BY LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS WILL BUILD THROUGH MIDWEEK IN
RESPONSE TO A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE
STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE MARINE AREA BY LATE
NEXT WEEK. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT DEVELOPING BY MIDWEEK. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      75  49  77  48  79 /  00  00  00  00  00
PENSACOLA   76  54  77  52  79 /  00  00  00  00  00
DESTIN      74  56  76  54  78 /  00  00  00  00  00
EVERGREEN   75  43  76  43  78 /  00  00  00  00  00
WAYNESBORO  74  43  76  44  80 /  00  00  00  00  00
CAMDEN      74  42  76  44  78 /  00  00  00  00  00
CRESTVIEW   76  42  78  41  80 /  00  00  00  00  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMOB 231706 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM AND AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1210 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...CURRENT PACKAGE ON TRACK...WITH NARY A CLOUD IN THE SKY AT
NOONTIME. TEMP CURVE ALSO ON TRACK. NO UPDATES PLANNED.

/16

&&

.AVIATION...
10Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST UNDER
LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW.

/16

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...AXIS OF HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE
LOCATED NEAR THE MS/AL BORDER THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE
CWFA AND WEAKEN THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING IN RESPONSE TO
PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF TRACKING EASTWARD...MOVING
FROM E TX TO NEAR THE AL/GA BORDER BY 12Z FRI. WITH NO RETURN OR
SOUTHERLY FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM NO RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH MAYBE A FEW EXTRA MID TO HIGH CLOUDS GENERALLY MOVING
FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE SLIGHTLY
DRIER/COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT SOUTH OVER THE REGION
LEADING TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY AND SEASONABLE TEMPS. AS FOR
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO USE A BLEND OF THE MAV AND MET GUIDANCE DUE
TO BETTER MIXING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HIGHS TODAY WILL CLIMB TO THE MID 70S FOR MOST AREAS IN THE CWFA
WITH LOWS TONIGHT FALLING TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S OVER INLAND
AREAS AND THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST. 32/EE

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
WILL DIG SOUTHEAST FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC
SEABOARD ON FRIDAY...REINFORCING THE COOL AND DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION. THEREFORE...ANOTHER DAY OF NORMAL HIGHS (MID TO
UPPER 70S) CAN BE EXPECTED WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT BELOW NORMAL (MID
TO UPPER 40S) GIVEN LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE AREA.

A MODERATING TREND COMMENCES OVER THE WEEKEND AS A LARGE MID TO
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY MOVES EAST.
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE LOW 80S BY SUNDAY WITH LOWS
TRENDING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL WITH DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING.

THE RIDGE ALOFT SHIFTS FURTHER EAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER
TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE PLAINS STATES.
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS OUR REGION AS THE
DEEP LAYER FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN ENTERING THE PICTURE BY
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL MON-WED WITH HUMIDITY
VALUES ALSO INCREASING. 34/JFB

&&

.MARINE...A MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW THIS MORNING
WILL DIMINISH LATE TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT THEN REBUILD SLIGHTLY
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY FRI MORNING DUE TO COLD AIR DRAINAGE. OTHERWISE
A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF STATES AND NORTH CENTRAL GULF THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST
THOUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY A WEAK ONSHORE FLOW BY LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS WILL BUILD THROUGH MIDWEEK IN
RESPONSE TO A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE
STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE MARINE AREA BY LATE
NEXT WEEK. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT DEVELOPING BY MIDWEEK. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      75  49  77  48  79 /  00  00  00  00  00
PENSACOLA   76  54  77  52  79 /  00  00  00  00  00
DESTIN      74  56  76  54  78 /  00  00  00  00  00
EVERGREEN   75  43  76  43  78 /  00  00  00  00  00
WAYNESBORO  74  43  76  44  80 /  00  00  00  00  00
CAMDEN      74  42  76  44  78 /  00  00  00  00  00
CRESTVIEW   76  42  78  41  80 /  00  00  00  00  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMOB 230945
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
445 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...AXIS OF HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE
LOCATED NEAR THE MS/AL BORDER THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE
CWFA AND WEAKEN THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING IN RESPONSE TO
PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF TRACKING EASTWARD...MOVING
FROM E TX TO NEAR THE AL/GA BORDER BY 12Z FRI. WITH NO RETURN OR
SOUTHERLY FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM NO RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH MAYBE A FEW EXTRA MID TO HIGH CLOUDS GENERALLY MOVING
FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE SLIGHTLY
DRIER/COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT SOUTH OVER THE REGION
LEADING TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY AND SEASONABLE TEMPS. AS FOR
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO USE A BLEND OF THE MAV AND MET GUIDANCE DUE
TO BETTER MIXING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HIGHS TODAY WILL CLIMB TO THE MID 70S FOR MOST AREAS IN THE CWFA
WITH LOWS TONIGHT FALLING TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S OVER INLAND
AREAS AND THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST. 32/EE

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
WILL DIG SOUTHEAST FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC
SEABOARD ON FRIDAY...REINFORCING THE COOL AND DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION. THEREFORE...ANOTHER DAY OF NORMAL HIGHS (MID TO
UPPER 70S) CAN BE EXPECTED WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT BELOW NORMAL (MID
TO UPPER 40S) GIVEN LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE AREA.

A MODERATING TREND COMMENCES OVER THE WEEKEND AS A LARGE MID TO
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY MOVES EAST.
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE LOW 80S BY SUNDAY WITH LOWS
TRENDING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL WITH DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING.

THE RIDGE ALOFT SHIFTS FURTHER EAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER
TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE PLAINS STATES.
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS OUR REGION AS THE
DEEP LAYER FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN ENTERING THE PICTURE BY
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL MON-WED WITH HUMIDITY
VALUES ALSO INCREASING. 34/JFB

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 24.12Z. SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO BE MOSTLY
CLEAR. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST AT 4 TO 8
KNOTS THROUGH TONIGHT. 32/EE

&&

.MARINE...A MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW THIS MORNING
WILL DIMINISH LATE TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT THEN REBUILD SLIGHTLY
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY FRI MORNING DUE TO COLD AIR DRAINAGE. OTHERWISE
A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF STATES AND NORTH CENTRAL GULF THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST
THOUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY A WEAK ONSHORE FLOW BY LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS WILL BUILD THROUGH MIDWEEK IN
RESPONSE TO A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE
STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE MARINE AREA BY LATE
NEXT WEEK. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT DEVELOPING BY MIDWEEK. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      75  49  77  48  79 /  00  00  00  00  00
PENSACOLA   76  54  77  52  79 /  00  00  00  00  00
DESTIN      74  56  76  54  78 /  00  00  00  00  00
EVERGREEN   75  43  76  43  78 /  00  00  00  00  00
WAYNESBORO  74  43  76  44  80 /  00  00  00  00  00
CAMDEN      74  42  76  44  78 /  00  00  00  00  00
CRESTVIEW   76  42  78  41  80 /  00  00  00  00  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KMOB 230945
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
445 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...AXIS OF HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE
LOCATED NEAR THE MS/AL BORDER THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE
CWFA AND WEAKEN THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING IN RESPONSE TO
PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF TRACKING EASTWARD...MOVING
FROM E TX TO NEAR THE AL/GA BORDER BY 12Z FRI. WITH NO RETURN OR
SOUTHERLY FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM NO RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH MAYBE A FEW EXTRA MID TO HIGH CLOUDS GENERALLY MOVING
FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE SLIGHTLY
DRIER/COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT SOUTH OVER THE REGION
LEADING TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY AND SEASONABLE TEMPS. AS FOR
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO USE A BLEND OF THE MAV AND MET GUIDANCE DUE
TO BETTER MIXING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HIGHS TODAY WILL CLIMB TO THE MID 70S FOR MOST AREAS IN THE CWFA
WITH LOWS TONIGHT FALLING TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S OVER INLAND
AREAS AND THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST. 32/EE

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
WILL DIG SOUTHEAST FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC
SEABOARD ON FRIDAY...REINFORCING THE COOL AND DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION. THEREFORE...ANOTHER DAY OF NORMAL HIGHS (MID TO
UPPER 70S) CAN BE EXPECTED WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT BELOW NORMAL (MID
TO UPPER 40S) GIVEN LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE AREA.

A MODERATING TREND COMMENCES OVER THE WEEKEND AS A LARGE MID TO
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY MOVES EAST.
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE LOW 80S BY SUNDAY WITH LOWS
TRENDING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL WITH DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING.

THE RIDGE ALOFT SHIFTS FURTHER EAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER
TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE PLAINS STATES.
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS OUR REGION AS THE
DEEP LAYER FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN ENTERING THE PICTURE BY
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL MON-WED WITH HUMIDITY
VALUES ALSO INCREASING. 34/JFB

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 24.12Z. SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO BE MOSTLY
CLEAR. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST AT 4 TO 8
KNOTS THROUGH TONIGHT. 32/EE

&&

.MARINE...A MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW THIS MORNING
WILL DIMINISH LATE TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT THEN REBUILD SLIGHTLY
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY FRI MORNING DUE TO COLD AIR DRAINAGE. OTHERWISE
A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF STATES AND NORTH CENTRAL GULF THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST
THOUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY A WEAK ONSHORE FLOW BY LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS WILL BUILD THROUGH MIDWEEK IN
RESPONSE TO A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE
STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE MARINE AREA BY LATE
NEXT WEEK. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT DEVELOPING BY MIDWEEK. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      75  49  77  48  79 /  00  00  00  00  00
PENSACOLA   76  54  77  52  79 /  00  00  00  00  00
DESTIN      74  56  76  54  78 /  00  00  00  00  00
EVERGREEN   75  43  76  43  78 /  00  00  00  00  00
WAYNESBORO  74  43  76  44  80 /  00  00  00  00  00
CAMDEN      74  42  76  44  78 /  00  00  00  00  00
CRESTVIEW   76  42  78  41  80 /  00  00  00  00  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KMOB 230455 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...AVIATION UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1150 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

AVIATION...
23/06Z TAF ISSUANCE...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. /13

&&

.UPDATE...THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO UPDATES ARE NEEDED. /13


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY]...LITTLE TO NO CHANGES TO PATTERN
FROM YESTERDAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AND SLIGHT RIDGING ALOFT
REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURES TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. UNDER
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPS TO CONTINUE WITH LOWER
40S EXPECTED OVER MOST OF THE INTERIOR ZONES...AND LOWER 50S NEAR
THE COAST. IN GENERAL...THESE MIN TEMPS WILL BE RANGING FROM AROUND
8-12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. FOR THURSDAY
NEAR NORMAL MAX TEMPS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S INLAND
AND MIDDLE 70S COASTAL. LIGHT (TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE NEAR THE
COAST) NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. CLEAR
SKIES AND NO PCPN EXPECTED. 12/DS

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY UNDERNEATH DRY NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT. A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI...TENNESSEE...AND OHIO VALLEY REGION THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY WHICH WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW FLOW ACROSS OUR
AREA. RADIATIONAL COOLING COURTESY OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ALONG WITH
FAIRLY LOW DEWPOINTS SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANOTHER COOL MORNING WITH LOWS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S INLAND AND IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S NEAR
THE COAST. HIGHS FRIDAY SHOULD RANGE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. /21

LONG TERM [SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
PREVAIL SATURDAY ON THE EASTERN FRINGE OF A MID LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF CENTRAL TX. THIS RIDGE AXIS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO
SUNDAY...BECOMING FOCUSED OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND WESTERN ATLANTIC
BY MONDAY. A DEEP LAYER DRY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN INTACT OVER OUR
FORECAST AREA...KEEPING POPS PRETTY MUCH NIL THROUGH MONDAY. SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE TUESDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT MID LEVEL
TROUGH EXPECTED TO DEEPEN OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. THIS
TROUGH AXIS MAY LIFT EASTWARD TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE
VALLEY REGION BY WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.
ENOUGH MOISTURE AHEAD OF THESE APPROACHING FEATURES COULD BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS BACK INTO THE FORECAST BY WEDNESDAY...AND
FOR NOW HAVE KEPT POPS 20 PERCENT OR LESS. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD
TREND UPWARDS BACK TO ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS GULF
MOISTURE GRADUALLY INCREASES OVER THE REGION. HIGHS SHOULD GENERALLY
RANGE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. /21

MARINE...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE
MARINE AREA FROM THE NORTH INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. TO THE
SOUTH...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 9 IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT WEST ACROSS THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA THROUGH LATE WEEK AND INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THESE SYSTEMS WILL COMBINE TO BRING A LIGHT TO
MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND FLOW TO THE MARINE AREA THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WINDS COULD BE A LITTLE STRONGER THAN FORECAST IF THE LOW
INTENSIFIES A MORE THAN EXPECTED. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      49  75  48  77  49 /  00  00  00  00  00
PENSACOLA   52  76  52  77  53 /  00  00  00  00  00
DESTIN      60  74  54  76  56 /  00  00  00  00  00
EVERGREEN   41  73  43  76  44 /  00  00  00  00  00
WAYNESBORO  42  74  42  76  45 /  00  00  00  00  00
CAMDEN      41  73  42  76  45 /  00  00  00  00  00
CRESTVIEW   42  75  42  78  43 /  00  00  00  00  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$














000
FXUS64 KMOB 230455 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...AVIATION UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1150 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

AVIATION...
23/06Z TAF ISSUANCE...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. /13

&&

.UPDATE...THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO UPDATES ARE NEEDED. /13


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY]...LITTLE TO NO CHANGES TO PATTERN
FROM YESTERDAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AND SLIGHT RIDGING ALOFT
REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURES TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. UNDER
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPS TO CONTINUE WITH LOWER
40S EXPECTED OVER MOST OF THE INTERIOR ZONES...AND LOWER 50S NEAR
THE COAST. IN GENERAL...THESE MIN TEMPS WILL BE RANGING FROM AROUND
8-12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. FOR THURSDAY
NEAR NORMAL MAX TEMPS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S INLAND
AND MIDDLE 70S COASTAL. LIGHT (TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE NEAR THE
COAST) NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. CLEAR
SKIES AND NO PCPN EXPECTED. 12/DS

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY UNDERNEATH DRY NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT. A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI...TENNESSEE...AND OHIO VALLEY REGION THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY WHICH WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW FLOW ACROSS OUR
AREA. RADIATIONAL COOLING COURTESY OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ALONG WITH
FAIRLY LOW DEWPOINTS SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANOTHER COOL MORNING WITH LOWS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S INLAND AND IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S NEAR
THE COAST. HIGHS FRIDAY SHOULD RANGE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. /21

LONG TERM [SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
PREVAIL SATURDAY ON THE EASTERN FRINGE OF A MID LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF CENTRAL TX. THIS RIDGE AXIS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO
SUNDAY...BECOMING FOCUSED OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND WESTERN ATLANTIC
BY MONDAY. A DEEP LAYER DRY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN INTACT OVER OUR
FORECAST AREA...KEEPING POPS PRETTY MUCH NIL THROUGH MONDAY. SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE TUESDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT MID LEVEL
TROUGH EXPECTED TO DEEPEN OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. THIS
TROUGH AXIS MAY LIFT EASTWARD TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE
VALLEY REGION BY WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.
ENOUGH MOISTURE AHEAD OF THESE APPROACHING FEATURES COULD BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS BACK INTO THE FORECAST BY WEDNESDAY...AND
FOR NOW HAVE KEPT POPS 20 PERCENT OR LESS. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD
TREND UPWARDS BACK TO ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS GULF
MOISTURE GRADUALLY INCREASES OVER THE REGION. HIGHS SHOULD GENERALLY
RANGE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. /21

MARINE...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE
MARINE AREA FROM THE NORTH INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. TO THE
SOUTH...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 9 IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT WEST ACROSS THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA THROUGH LATE WEEK AND INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THESE SYSTEMS WILL COMBINE TO BRING A LIGHT TO
MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND FLOW TO THE MARINE AREA THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WINDS COULD BE A LITTLE STRONGER THAN FORECAST IF THE LOW
INTENSIFIES A MORE THAN EXPECTED. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      49  75  48  77  49 /  00  00  00  00  00
PENSACOLA   52  76  52  77  53 /  00  00  00  00  00
DESTIN      60  74  54  76  56 /  00  00  00  00  00
EVERGREEN   41  73  43  76  44 /  00  00  00  00  00
WAYNESBORO  42  74  42  76  45 /  00  00  00  00  00
CAMDEN      41  73  42  76  45 /  00  00  00  00  00
CRESTVIEW   42  75  42  78  43 /  00  00  00  00  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$














000
FXUS64 KMOB 230350 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1050 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO UPDATES ARE NEEDED. /13


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY]...LITTLE TO NO CHANGES TO PATTERN
FROM YESTERDAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AND SLIGHT RIDGING ALOFT
REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURES TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. UNDER
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPS TO CONTINUE WITH LOWER
40S EXPECTED OVER MOST OF THE INTERIOR ZONES...AND LOWER 50S NEAR
THE COAST. IN GENERAL...THESE MIN TEMPS WILL BE RANGING FROM AROUND
8-12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. FOR THURSDAY
NEAR NORMAL MAX TEMPS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S INLAND
AND MIDDLE 70S COASTAL. LIGHT (TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE NEAR THE
COAST) NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. CLEAR
SKIES AND NO PCPN EXPECTED. 12/DS

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY UNDERNEATH DRY NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT. A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI...TENNESSEE...AND OHIO VALLEY REGION THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY WHICH WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW FLOW ACROSS OUR
AREA. RADIATIONAL COOLING COURTESY OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ALONG WITH
FAIRLY LOW DEWPOINTS SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANOTHER COOL MORNING WITH LOWS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S INLAND AND IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S NEAR
THE COAST. HIGHS FRIDAY SHOULD RANGE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. /21

LONG TERM [SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
PREVAIL SATURDAY ON THE EASTERN FRINGE OF A MID LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF CENTRAL TX. THIS RIDGE AXIS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO
SUNDAY...BECOMING FOCUSED OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND WESTERN ATLANTIC
BY MONDAY. A DEEP LAYER DRY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN INTACT OVER OUR
FORECAST AREA...KEEPING POPS PRETTY MUCH NIL THROUGH MONDAY. SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE TUESDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT MID LEVEL
TROUGH EXPECTED TO DEEPEN OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. THIS
TROUGH AXIS MAY LIFT EASTWARD TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE
VALLEY REGION BY WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.
ENOUGH MOISTURE AHEAD OF THESE APPROACHING FEATURES COULD BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS BACK INTO THE FORECAST BY WEDNESDAY...AND
FOR NOW HAVE KEPT POPS 20 PERCENT OR LESS. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD
TREND UPWARDS BACK TO ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS GULF
MOISTURE GRADUALLY INCREASES OVER THE REGION. HIGHS SHOULD GENERALLY
RANGE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. /21

AVIATION...
23/00Z TAF ISSUANCE...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 23/18Z. LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS
CONTINUE. 12/DS

MARINE...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE
MARINE AREA FROM THE NORTH INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. TO THE
SOUTH...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 9 IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT WEST ACROSS THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA THROUGH LATE WEEK AND INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THESE SYSTEMS WILL COMBINE TO BRING A LIGHT TO
MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND FLOW TO THE MARINE AREA THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WINDS COULD BE A LITTLE STRONGER THAN FORECAST IF THE LOW
INTENSIFIES A MORE THAN EXPECTED. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      49  75  48  77  49 /  00  00  00  00  00
PENSACOLA   52  76  52  77  53 /  00  00  00  00  00
DESTIN      60  74  54  76  56 /  00  00  00  00  00
EVERGREEN   41  73  43  76  44 /  00  00  00  00  00
WAYNESBORO  42  74  42  76  45 /  00  00  00  00  00
CAMDEN      41  73  42  76  45 /  00  00  00  00  00
CRESTVIEW   42  75  42  78  43 /  00  00  00  00  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$











000
FXUS64 KMOB 222059
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
359 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY]...LITTLE TO NO CHANGES TO PATTERN
FROM YESTERDAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AND SLIGHT RIDGING ALOFT
REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURES TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. UNDER
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPS TO CONTINUE WITH LOWER
40S EXPECTED OVER MOST OF THE INTERIOR ZONES...AND LOWER 50S NEAR
THE COAST. IN GENERAL...THESE MIN TEMPS WILL BE RANGING FROM AROUND
8-12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. FOR THURSDAY
NEAR NORMAL MAX TEMPS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S INLAND
AND MIDDLE 70S COASTAL. LIGHT (TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE NEAR THE
COAST) NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. CLEAR
SKIES AND NO PCPN EXPECTED. 12/DS

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY UNDERNEATH DRY NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT. A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI...TENNESSEE...AND OHIO VALLEY REGION THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY WHICH WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW FLOW ACROSS OUR
AREA. RADIATIONAL COOLING COURTESY OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ALONG WITH
FAIRLY LOW DEWPOINTS SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANOTHER COOL MORNING WITH LOWS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S INLAND AND IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S NEAR
THE COAST. HIGHS FRIDAY SHOULD RANGE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. /21

.LONG TERM [SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
PREVAIL SATURDAY ON THE EASTERN FRINGE OF A MID LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF CENTRAL TX. THIS RIDGE AXIS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO
SUNDAY...BECOMING FOCUSED OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND WESTERN ATLANTIC
BY MONDAY. A DEEP LAYER DRY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN INTACT OVER OUR
FORECAST AREA...KEEPING POPS PRETTY MUCH NIL THROUGH MONDAY. SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE TUESDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT MID LEVEL
TROUGH EXPECTED TO DEEPEN OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. THIS
TROUGH AXIS MAY LIFT EASTWARD TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE
VALLEY REGION BY WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.
ENOUGH MOISTURE AHEAD OF THESE APPROACHING FEATURES COULD BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS BACK INTO THE FORECAST BY WEDNESDAY...AND
FOR NOW HAVE KEPT POPS 20 PERCENT OR LESS. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD
TREND UPWARDS BACK TO ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS GULF
MOISTURE GRADUALLY INCREASES OVER THE REGION. HIGHS SHOULD GENERALLY
RANGE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. /21

&&

.AVIATION...
23/00Z TAF ISSUANCE...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 23/18Z. LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS
CONTINUE. 12/DS

&&

.MARINE...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE
MARINE AREA FROM THE NORTH INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. TO THE
SOUTH...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 9 IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT WEST ACROSS THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA THROUGH LATE WEEK AND INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THESE SYSTEMS WILL COMBINE TO BRING A LIGHT TO
MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND FLOW TO THE MARINE AREA THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WINDS COULD BE A LITTLE STRONGER THAN FORECAST IF THE LOW
INTENSIFIES A MORE THAN EXPECTED. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      49  75  48  77  49 /  00  00  00  00  00
PENSACOLA   52  76  52  77  53 /  00  00  00  00  00
DESTIN      60  74  54  76  56 /  00  00  00  00  00
EVERGREEN   41  73  43  76  44 /  00  00  00  00  00
WAYNESBORO  42  74  42  76  45 /  00  00  00  00  00
CAMDEN      41  73  42  76  45 /  00  00  00  00  00
CRESTVIEW   42  75  42  78  43 /  00  00  00  00  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMOB 221808
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
108 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.AVIATION UPDATE...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 23/18Z. LIGHT NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE. 12/DS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 436 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...HIGH AMPLITUDE MID TO UPPER
RIDGE AXIS LOCATED NEAR THE LA/TX BORDER THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE
TO SHIFT EAST REACHING CENTRAL MS AND LOWER LA BY 12Z THU. AT THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED MOSTLY OVER THE UPPER AND MIDDLE MS
RIVER VALLEYS WILL SHIFT EAST AND SOUTH SETTLING OVER THE TN RIVER
VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF STATES BY 12Z THU. TO THE SOUTH TD 9 LOCATED
OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WILL SHIFT EAST TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY
12Z THU LEADING TO A BETTER PRES/THERMAL GRADIENT GENERALLY OVER THE
NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES AND NORTHERN GULF BY 12Z THU...THUS
ALLOWING FOR BETTER MIXING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER FOR MUCH OF THE
CWFA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE
SFC TEMPS SOMEWHAT THROUGH TONIGHT ALSO...THOUGH WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE STILL ON TAP FOR TODAY AND CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. AS FOR
TEMPS WILL USE A BLEND OF THE MAV AND MET GUIDANCE THROUGH TONIGHT
RESULTING IN AFTERNOON HIGHS REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 70S FOR MOST
OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWFA AND THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
FURTHER SOUTH TO THE COAST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE A TAD COOLER THAN
PREVIOUS NIGHTS WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S FOR
MOST INLAND AREAS GENERALLY NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S CLOSER TO THE COAST. 32/EE

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...THIS MAY START TO SOUND LIKE
A BROKEN RECORD...BUT DRY AND QUIET WEATHER WILL PERSIST FROM THE END
OF THIS WEEK THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. NEAR NORMAL HIGHS WITH BELOW
NORMAL LOWS ARE EXPECTED THU-FRI AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS ANCHORED FROM THE MIDWEST SOUTH TO THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND
LOWER MS VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THIS WEEKEND AS MID TO
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL STATES BUILDS EAST. WEEKEND
HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...BUT LOWS WILL STILL AVERAGE
NEAR NORMAL DUE TO A VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE AND GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS.

THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...ALONG WITH SFC RIDGING...WILL MOVE
WELL EAST OF THE AREA BY MON-TUE OF NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SOUTHERLY SFC FLOW. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL CLIMB IN
RESPONSE WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. DESPITE
THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL LIKELY REMAIN VERY DRY AND THIS WILL KEEP RAIN
CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY. 34/JFB

AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 23.12Z. SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO BE CLEAR.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST AT 4 TO 8 KNOTS
THROUGH 32.12Z. 32/EE

MARINE...DEEP HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST AND NORTH COMBINED WITH TD
9 OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE SHIFTING EAST OVER THE LOWER GULF WILL
HELP MAINTAIN A MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY FLOW OVER
THE MARINE AREA THROUGH THU...FOLLOWED BY A DEEPENING LONG WAVE TROF
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WHICH SHOULD HELP LIFT TD 9 TO THE
NORTHEAST POSSIBLY OVER THE FL PENINSULA BY THE WEEKEND OR EARLY
NEXT WEEK. AS FOR TD 9 BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT
THROUGH FRI WITH THE GFS BECOMING MORE ROBUST WITH THE STRENGTH AND
TRACK OF THE SYSTEM AS IT EVENTUALLY EMERGES INTO THE SE GULF AND FL
STRAITS. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...WITH THIS PATTERN WE COULD SEE
EXERCISE CAUTION OR SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS LATER THIS WEEK AND
POSSIBLY INTO THE WEEKEND WHICH MOSTLY DEPENDS ON THE INTENSITY AND
LOCATION OF TD 9 BY LATE IN THE WEEK. BETTER SWELL MOSTLY FROM THE
SOUTH WILL ALSO BE LIKELY LATE IN THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND AS
THIS SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH SHIFTS EAST. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      48  75  47  77  49 /  00  00  00  00  00
PENSACOLA   52  75  51  77  53 /  00  00  00  00  00
DESTIN      55  74  57  75  59 /  00  00  00  00  00
EVERGREEN   41  73  42  76  45 /  00  00  00  00  00
WAYNESBORO  42  74  42  77  45 /  00  00  00  00  00
CAMDEN      41  73  42  76  45 /  00  00  00  00  00
CRESTVIEW   41  76  42  77  44 /  00  00  00  00  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$










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