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000
FXUS64 KMOB 311007 CCA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED PRELIM NUMBERS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
439 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...FOR TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...
THE PATTERN ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY THROUGH TONIGHT AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW DEEPENS AS IT TRANSLATES FROM THE VICINITY OF THE
GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY THIS MORNING TO NEAR THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS BY EARLY SATURDAY...WHILE UPPER RIDGING
MEANWHILE STRENGTHENS OVER THE PLAINS STATES. A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN ALOFT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT
BETWEEN THESE FEATURES. A STRONG SHORTWAVE QUICKLY DIVING
SOUTHEASTWARD WITH THE DEEPENING LOW WILL DRIVE A SURFACE COLD FRONT
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL LA/MS AND WESTERN AL BY MIDDAY TODAY
BEFORE PUSHING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE CWFA INTO THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.
TEMPERATURES TODAY MAY ONLY HAVE THE OPPORTUNITY TO WARM INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE.
INCREASING MOISTURE AROUND 850 MB MAY BRING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MID
LEVEL CLOUD COVER LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON...BUT AN
OVERALL DRY AIRMASS THROUGH THE DEEP LAYERS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES AVERAGING LESS THAN 0.7 INCHES WILL PRECLUDE ANY RAIN CHANCE
WITH THE FRONT TODAY. POPS REMAIN NIL.

A COLD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP FROM CANADA INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING...THEN WILL SETTLE FROM THE GREAT LAKES
TO WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION TONIGHT. THE MSLP GRADIENT
BETWEEN THIS FEATURE AND DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
CAROLINAS WILL KEEP NORTHERLY WINDS ELEVATED ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT SOUTHWARD
THROUGH OUR AREA ON THESE NORTHERLY WINDS...AND WE EXPECT A
CHILLY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. WE CONTINUED TO FAVOR SLIGHTLY
WARMER GUIDANCE NUMBERS TONIGHT GIVEN THE INCREASED WIND SPEEDS...
BUT WE STILL EXPECT OVERNIGHT READINGS TO RANGE FROM THE MID TO
UPPER 30S OVER INTERIOR AREAS AND THE LOWER TO MID 40S NEAR THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. PATCHY LIGHT FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING OVER INTERIOR AREAS. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN HIGHEST NEAR
THE IMMEDIATE COAST TONIGHT...BUT SPEEDS/GUSTS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR THE MOST PART EXCEPT PERHAPS RIGHT AT THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. MID LEVEL MOISTURE
QUICKLY PUSHES WELL OFFSHORE BY THIS EVENING...WITH CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. /21

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE UPPER LOW THAT PUSH A RE-ENFORCING
FRONT ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT MOVES OFF AS MORE UPPER ENERGY DIGS
SOUTH...THEN PUSHES EAST OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS WESTERN ENERGY
PUSHES AN UPPER RIDGE EASTWARD OVER THE PLAINS...PUSHING A SURFACE
RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS EASTWARD TO NEAR THE EAST COAST. A
STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA SATURDAY EASES SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY AS IT BECOMES NORTHEASTERLY.

SATURDAY...WITH A SIGNIFICANT SHOT OF COLDER AIR MOVING OVER THE FA
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING TEMPS IN THE UPPER
50S NORTH TO LOW 60S ALONG THE COAST. WITH GUIDANCE PRETTY CONSISTENT
THE LAST FEW DAYS...AND DECENTLY CONSISTENT WITH THE 00Z ISSUANCE...
SEE NO REASON TO ARGUE. AM EXPECTING BREEZY CONDITIONS TO GO WITH THE
COLDER TEMPS...BUT NOT QUITE ENOUGH TO WARRANT A WIND ADVISORY AT
THIS POINT.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH THE WINDS SETTLING...AT LEAST PART
OF THE FA WILL SEE FREEZING TEMPS. THE CURRENT GUIDANCE PLACES THE
CUT-OFF LINE OVER A STONE...CO MISS TO SOUTHERN CRENSHAW CO...AL
LINE. DEPENDING UPON THE WINDS AND HOW MUCH THE SETTLE...THIS LINE
COULD SHIFT NORTH OR SOUTH. AT THIS POINT...THIS LOOKS TO BE THE BEST
COMPROMISE AMONGST A GENERAL 3-5 DEGREE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE. HAVE
ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH AT THIS POINT...TO AT LEAST GIVE A HEADS UP FOR
THE FIRST COLD SNAP OF THE YEAR.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT ON)...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT...GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING THE WESTERN CONUS ENERGY PUSHING
EAST...WITH THE SOUTHERN END SEEING A SERIOUS PUSH-BACK BY AN UPPER
HIGH THAT BECOMES ENTRENCHED OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEX. THIS
MEANS THE NORTHERN END OF THE WESTERN TROUGH PUSHES EAST OVER THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...WHILST THE SOUTHERN END REMAINS
ANCHORED OVER THE AZ/NM/MEX BORDER. THIS NORTHERN ADVANCEMENT PUSHES
THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD SOUTHWARD...TO OVER THE
CAROLINA COAST WITH A RIDGE STRETCHING WEST OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
CONUS AND PUTTING THE FA BACK UNDER SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF THE GULF. THE
RESULT IS TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY LEVELS RISING TO NEAR SEASONAL
LEVELS.

TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY...THE SOUTHERN END OF THE TROUGH BREAKS OFF AND
FORMS A CLOSED LOW WHICH MEANDERS AROUND THE US/MEX BORDER...WITH THE
REST OF THE TROUGH STRETCHES ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS...PUSHING THE SURFACE RIDGE SOUTH OVER THE GULF
OF MEX AND BRINGING THE FA BACK UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW. GUIDANCE IS
ADVERTISING THE UPPER WANDERING EAST ENOUGH FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE SHOWERS OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY AND
MAINLY WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FA. TEMPS CONTINUE TO RISE...WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...
31.12Z ISSUANCE...VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD...
THOUGH INCREASED CLOUD DECKS BETWEEN 4-6 KFT WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON. LIGHT NW WINDS WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING...BUT A COLD
FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING NW TO N WINDS OF 12-17 KNOTS WITH SOME
GUSTS OVER 20 KNOTS LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
/21

&&

.MARINE...A LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
MARINE AREA THIS MORNING BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS MUCH STRONGER
NORTHERLY WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WE EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS  MAINLY AFTER 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...LOOK
FOR NORTHERLY WINDS TO INCREASE TO 25-30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OVER GALE
FORCE ACROSS LOWER MOBILE BAY...THE MISSISSIPPI SOUND...AND THE
COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA
PANHANDLE DURING THE MID TO LATE EVENING HOURS...PERSISTING INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. WE HAVE UPGRADED THE GALE WATCH TO A GALE WARNING
AND HAVE ALSO INCLUDED LOWER MOBILE BAY AND THE MISSISSIPPI SOUND IN
ADDITION TO THE COASTAL WATERS BEGINNING AT 10 PM CDT...AND
CONTINUING THROUGH 10 AM SATURDAY MORNING. SEAS WILL QUICKLY BUILD
TO 5 TO 8 FEET OVER THE NEAR-SHORE WATERS...AND 7 TO 10 FEET WELL
OFFSHORE TONIGHT...BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING INTO SATURDAY. WE WILL
THEN CONTINUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL OF THE MARINE AREA LATE
SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY EVENING AS NORTHERLY WINDS
AROUND 20 KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25-30 KNOTS CONTINUE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SUNDAY TO THE
EASTERN SEABOARD BY MONDAY. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD DECREASE...BUT
STILL REMAIN MODERATE FROM THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY...THEN MORE EASTERLY
BY MONDAY. A MODERATE EAST FLOW SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MIDWEEK AS
HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN U.S. /21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      74  38  58  34  64 /  00  00  00  00  00
PENSACOLA   74  42  60  37  64 /  00  05  00  00  00
DESTIN      74  43  61  40  65 /  00  05  00  00  00
EVERGREEN   74  36  57  30  62 /  05  00  00  00  00
WAYNESBORO  72  35  58  30  62 /  05  00  00  00  00
CAMDEN      73  35  57  30  61 /  05  00  00  00  00
CRESTVIEW   75  38  60  31  65 /  05  05  00  00  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FREEZE WATCH FROM 1 AM SUNDAY TO 8 AM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BUTLER...CHOCTAW...CLARKE...CONECUH...CRENSHAW...
     MONROE...WASHINGTON...WILCOX...

FL...NONE.
MS...FREEZE WATCH FROM 1 AM SUNDAY TO 8 AM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: GREENE...PERRY...WAYNE...

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM FRIDAY TO 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...NORTHERN MOBILE BAY...
     PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...PERDIDO BAY...

     GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM SATURDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA
     MS OUT 20 NM...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY...
     WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM FRIDAY TO 10 PM FRIDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA
     MS OUT 20 NM...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY...
     WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA
     MS OUT 20 NM...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY...
     WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...

&&

$$

21/16











000
FXUS64 KMOB 311007 CCA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED PRELIM NUMBERS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
439 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...FOR TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...
THE PATTERN ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY THROUGH TONIGHT AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW DEEPENS AS IT TRANSLATES FROM THE VICINITY OF THE
GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY THIS MORNING TO NEAR THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS BY EARLY SATURDAY...WHILE UPPER RIDGING
MEANWHILE STRENGTHENS OVER THE PLAINS STATES. A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN ALOFT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT
BETWEEN THESE FEATURES. A STRONG SHORTWAVE QUICKLY DIVING
SOUTHEASTWARD WITH THE DEEPENING LOW WILL DRIVE A SURFACE COLD FRONT
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL LA/MS AND WESTERN AL BY MIDDAY TODAY
BEFORE PUSHING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE CWFA INTO THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.
TEMPERATURES TODAY MAY ONLY HAVE THE OPPORTUNITY TO WARM INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE.
INCREASING MOISTURE AROUND 850 MB MAY BRING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MID
LEVEL CLOUD COVER LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON...BUT AN
OVERALL DRY AIRMASS THROUGH THE DEEP LAYERS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES AVERAGING LESS THAN 0.7 INCHES WILL PRECLUDE ANY RAIN CHANCE
WITH THE FRONT TODAY. POPS REMAIN NIL.

A COLD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP FROM CANADA INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING...THEN WILL SETTLE FROM THE GREAT LAKES
TO WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION TONIGHT. THE MSLP GRADIENT
BETWEEN THIS FEATURE AND DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
CAROLINAS WILL KEEP NORTHERLY WINDS ELEVATED ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT SOUTHWARD
THROUGH OUR AREA ON THESE NORTHERLY WINDS...AND WE EXPECT A
CHILLY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. WE CONTINUED TO FAVOR SLIGHTLY
WARMER GUIDANCE NUMBERS TONIGHT GIVEN THE INCREASED WIND SPEEDS...
BUT WE STILL EXPECT OVERNIGHT READINGS TO RANGE FROM THE MID TO
UPPER 30S OVER INTERIOR AREAS AND THE LOWER TO MID 40S NEAR THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. PATCHY LIGHT FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING OVER INTERIOR AREAS. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN HIGHEST NEAR
THE IMMEDIATE COAST TONIGHT...BUT SPEEDS/GUSTS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR THE MOST PART EXCEPT PERHAPS RIGHT AT THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. MID LEVEL MOISTURE
QUICKLY PUSHES WELL OFFSHORE BY THIS EVENING...WITH CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. /21

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE UPPER LOW THAT PUSH A RE-ENFORCING
FRONT ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT MOVES OFF AS MORE UPPER ENERGY DIGS
SOUTH...THEN PUSHES EAST OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS WESTERN ENERGY
PUSHES AN UPPER RIDGE EASTWARD OVER THE PLAINS...PUSHING A SURFACE
RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS EASTWARD TO NEAR THE EAST COAST. A
STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA SATURDAY EASES SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY AS IT BECOMES NORTHEASTERLY.

SATURDAY...WITH A SIGNIFICANT SHOT OF COLDER AIR MOVING OVER THE FA
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING TEMPS IN THE UPPER
50S NORTH TO LOW 60S ALONG THE COAST. WITH GUIDANCE PRETTY CONSISTENT
THE LAST FEW DAYS...AND DECENTLY CONSISTENT WITH THE 00Z ISSUANCE...
SEE NO REASON TO ARGUE. AM EXPECTING BREEZY CONDITIONS TO GO WITH THE
COLDER TEMPS...BUT NOT QUITE ENOUGH TO WARRANT A WIND ADVISORY AT
THIS POINT.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH THE WINDS SETTLING...AT LEAST PART
OF THE FA WILL SEE FREEZING TEMPS. THE CURRENT GUIDANCE PLACES THE
CUT-OFF LINE OVER A STONE...CO MISS TO SOUTHERN CRENSHAW CO...AL
LINE. DEPENDING UPON THE WINDS AND HOW MUCH THE SETTLE...THIS LINE
COULD SHIFT NORTH OR SOUTH. AT THIS POINT...THIS LOOKS TO BE THE BEST
COMPROMISE AMONGST A GENERAL 3-5 DEGREE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE. HAVE
ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH AT THIS POINT...TO AT LEAST GIVE A HEADS UP FOR
THE FIRST COLD SNAP OF THE YEAR.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT ON)...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT...GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING THE WESTERN CONUS ENERGY PUSHING
EAST...WITH THE SOUTHERN END SEEING A SERIOUS PUSH-BACK BY AN UPPER
HIGH THAT BECOMES ENTRENCHED OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEX. THIS
MEANS THE NORTHERN END OF THE WESTERN TROUGH PUSHES EAST OVER THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...WHILST THE SOUTHERN END REMAINS
ANCHORED OVER THE AZ/NM/MEX BORDER. THIS NORTHERN ADVANCEMENT PUSHES
THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD SOUTHWARD...TO OVER THE
CAROLINA COAST WITH A RIDGE STRETCHING WEST OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
CONUS AND PUTTING THE FA BACK UNDER SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF THE GULF. THE
RESULT IS TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY LEVELS RISING TO NEAR SEASONAL
LEVELS.

TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY...THE SOUTHERN END OF THE TROUGH BREAKS OFF AND
FORMS A CLOSED LOW WHICH MEANDERS AROUND THE US/MEX BORDER...WITH THE
REST OF THE TROUGH STRETCHES ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS...PUSHING THE SURFACE RIDGE SOUTH OVER THE GULF
OF MEX AND BRINGING THE FA BACK UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW. GUIDANCE IS
ADVERTISING THE UPPER WANDERING EAST ENOUGH FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE SHOWERS OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY AND
MAINLY WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FA. TEMPS CONTINUE TO RISE...WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...
31.12Z ISSUANCE...VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD...
THOUGH INCREASED CLOUD DECKS BETWEEN 4-6 KFT WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON. LIGHT NW WINDS WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING...BUT A COLD
FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING NW TO N WINDS OF 12-17 KNOTS WITH SOME
GUSTS OVER 20 KNOTS LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
/21

&&

.MARINE...A LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
MARINE AREA THIS MORNING BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS MUCH STRONGER
NORTHERLY WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WE EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS  MAINLY AFTER 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...LOOK
FOR NORTHERLY WINDS TO INCREASE TO 25-30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OVER GALE
FORCE ACROSS LOWER MOBILE BAY...THE MISSISSIPPI SOUND...AND THE
COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA
PANHANDLE DURING THE MID TO LATE EVENING HOURS...PERSISTING INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. WE HAVE UPGRADED THE GALE WATCH TO A GALE WARNING
AND HAVE ALSO INCLUDED LOWER MOBILE BAY AND THE MISSISSIPPI SOUND IN
ADDITION TO THE COASTAL WATERS BEGINNING AT 10 PM CDT...AND
CONTINUING THROUGH 10 AM SATURDAY MORNING. SEAS WILL QUICKLY BUILD
TO 5 TO 8 FEET OVER THE NEAR-SHORE WATERS...AND 7 TO 10 FEET WELL
OFFSHORE TONIGHT...BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING INTO SATURDAY. WE WILL
THEN CONTINUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL OF THE MARINE AREA LATE
SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY EVENING AS NORTHERLY WINDS
AROUND 20 KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25-30 KNOTS CONTINUE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SUNDAY TO THE
EASTERN SEABOARD BY MONDAY. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD DECREASE...BUT
STILL REMAIN MODERATE FROM THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY...THEN MORE EASTERLY
BY MONDAY. A MODERATE EAST FLOW SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MIDWEEK AS
HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN U.S. /21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      74  38  58  34  64 /  00  00  00  00  00
PENSACOLA   74  42  60  37  64 /  00  05  00  00  00
DESTIN      74  43  61  40  65 /  00  05  00  00  00
EVERGREEN   74  36  57  30  62 /  05  00  00  00  00
WAYNESBORO  72  35  58  30  62 /  05  00  00  00  00
CAMDEN      73  35  57  30  61 /  05  00  00  00  00
CRESTVIEW   75  38  60  31  65 /  05  05  00  00  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FREEZE WATCH FROM 1 AM SUNDAY TO 8 AM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BUTLER...CHOCTAW...CLARKE...CONECUH...CRENSHAW...
     MONROE...WASHINGTON...WILCOX...

FL...NONE.
MS...FREEZE WATCH FROM 1 AM SUNDAY TO 8 AM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: GREENE...PERRY...WAYNE...

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM FRIDAY TO 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...NORTHERN MOBILE BAY...
     PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...PERDIDO BAY...

     GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM SATURDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA
     MS OUT 20 NM...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY...
     WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM FRIDAY TO 10 PM FRIDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA
     MS OUT 20 NM...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY...
     WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA
     MS OUT 20 NM...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY...
     WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...

&&

$$

21/16











000
FXUS64 KMOB 310939
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
439 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...FOR TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...
THE PATTERN ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY THROUGH TONIGHT AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW DEEPENS AS IT TRANSLATES FROM THE VICINITY OF THE
GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY THIS MORNING TO NEAR THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS BY EARLY SATURDAY...WHILE UPPER RIDGING
MEANWHILE STRENGTHENS OVER THE PLAINS STATES. A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN ALOFT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT
BETWEEN THESE FEATURES. A STRONG SHORTWAVE QUICKLY DIVING
SOUTHEASTWARD WITH THE DEEPENING LOW WILL DRIVE A SURFACE COLD FRONT
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL LA/MS AND WESTERN AL BY MIDDAY TODAY
BEFORE PUSHING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE CWFA INTO THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.
TEMPERATURES TODAY MAY ONLY HAVE THE OPPORTUNITY TO WARM INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE.
INCREASING MOISTURE AROUND 850 MB MAY BRING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MID
LEVEL CLOUD COVER LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON...BUT AN
OVERALL DRY AIRMASS THROUGH THE DEEP LAYERS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES AVERAGING LESS THAN 0.7 INCHES WILL PRECLUDE ANY RAIN CHANCE
WITH THE FRONT TODAY. POPS REMAIN NIL.

A COLD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP FROM CANADA INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING...THEN WILL SETTLE FROM THE GREAT LAKES
TO WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION TONIGHT. THE MSLP GRADIENT
BETWEEN THIS FEATURE AND DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
CAROLINAS WILL KEEP NORTHERLY WINDS ELEVATED ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT SOUTHWARD
THROUGH OUR AREA ON THESE NORTHERLY WINDS...AND WE EXPECT A
CHILLY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. WE CONTINUED TO FAVOR SLIGHTLY
WARMER GUIDANCE NUMBERS TONIGHT GIVEN THE INCREASED WIND SPEEDS...
BUT WE STILL EXPECT OVERNIGHT READINGS TO RANGE FROM THE MID TO
UPPER 30S OVER INTERIOR AREAS AND THE LOWER TO MID 40S NEAR THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. PATCHY LIGHT FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING OVER INTERIOR AREAS. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN HIGHEST NEAR
THE IMMEDIATE COAST TONIGHT...BUT SPEEDS/GUSTS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR THE MOST PART EXCEPT PERHAPS RIGHT AT THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. MID LEVEL MOISTURE
QUICKLY PUSHES WELL OFFSHORE BY THIS EVENING...WITH CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. /21

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE UPPER LOW THAT PUSH A RE-ENFORCING
FRONT ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT MOVES OFF AS MORE UPPER ENERGY DIGS
SOUTH...THEN PUSHES EAST OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS WESTERN ENERGY
PUSHES AN UPPER RIDGE EASTWARD OVER THE PLAINS...PUSHING A SURFACE RIDGE
OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS EASTWARD TO NEAR THE EAST COAST. A STRONG
NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA SATURDAY EASES SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY AS IT BECOMES NORTHEASTERLY.

SATURDAY...WITH A SIGNIFICANT SHOT OF COLDER AIR MOVING OVER THE FA
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING TEMPS IN THE UPPER
50S NORTH TO LOW 60S ALONG THE COAST. WITH GUIDANCE PRETTY CONSISTENT
THE LAST FEW DAYS...AND DECENTLY CONSISTENT WITH THE 00Z ISSUANCE...
SEE NO REASON TO ARGUE. AM EXPECTING BREEZY CONDITIONS TO GO WITH THE
COLDER TEMPS...BUT NOT QUITE ENOUGH TO WARRANT A WIND ADVISORY AT
THIS POINT.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH THE WINDS SETTLING...AT LEAST PART
OF THE FA WILL SEE FREEZING TEMPS. THE CURRENT GUIDANCE PLACES THE
CUT-OFF LINE OVER A STONE...CO MISS TO SOUTHERN CRENSHAW CO...AL
LINE. DEPENDING UPON THE WINDS AND HOW MUCH THE SETTLE...THIS LINE
COULD SHIFT NORTH OR SOUTH. AT THIS POINT...THIS LOOKS TO BE THE BEST
COMPROMISE AMONGST A GENERAL 3-5 DEGREE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE. HAVE
ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH AT THIS POINT...TO AT LEAST GIVE A HEADS UP FOR
THE FIRST COLD SNAP OF THE YEAR.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT ON)...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT...GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING THE WESTERN CONUS ENERGY PUSHING
EAST...WITH THE SOUTHERN END SEEING A SERIOUS PUSH-BACK BY AN UPPER
HIGH THAT BECOMES ENTRENCHED OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEX. THIS
MEANS THE NORTHERN END OF THE WESTERN TROUGH PUSHES EAST OVER THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...WHILST THE SOUTHERN END REMAINS
ANCHORED OVER THE AZ/NM/MEX BORDER. THIS NORTHERN ADVANCEMENT PUSHES
THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD SOUTHWARD...TO OVER THE
CAROLINA COAST WITH A RIDGE STRETCHING WEST OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
CONUS AND PUTTING THE FA BACK UNDER SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF THE GULF. THE
RESULT IS TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY LEVELS RISING TO NEAR SEASONAL
LEVELS.

TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY...THE SOUTHERN END OF THE TROUGH BREAKS OFF AND
FORMS A CLOSED LOW WHICH MEANDERS AROUND THE US/MEX BORDER...WITH THE
REST OF THE TROUGH STRETCHES ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN
CONUS...PUSHING THE SURFACE RIDGE SOUTH OVER THE GULF OF MEX AND
BRINGING THE FA BACK UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW. GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING
THE UPPER WANDERING EAST ENOUGH FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE SHOWERS OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY AND MAINLY WESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE FA. TEMPS CONTINUE TO RISE...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S TO AROUND 80 THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...
31.12Z ISSUANCE...VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD...
THOUGH INCREASED CLOUD DECKS BETWEEN 4-6 KFT WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON. LIGHT NW WINDS WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING...BUT A COLD
FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING NW TO N WINDS OF 12-17 KNOTS WITH SOME
GUSTS OVER 20 KNOTS LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
/21

&&

.MARINE...A LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
MARINE AREA THIS MORNING BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS MUCH STRONGER
NORTHERLY WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WE EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS  MAINLY AFTER 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...LOOK
FOR NORTHERLY WINDS TO INCREASE TO 25-30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OVER GALE
FORCE ACROSS LOWER MOBILE BAY...THE MISSISSIPPI SOUND...AND THE
COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA
PANHANDLE DURING THE MID TO LATE EVENING HOURS...PERSISTING INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. WE HAVE UPGRADED THE GALE WATCH TO A GALE WARNING
AND HAVE ALSO INCLUDED LOWER MOBILE BAY AND THE MISSISSIPPI SOUND IN
ADDITION TO THE COASTAL WATERS BEGINNING AT 10 PM CDT...AND
CONTINUING THROUGH 10 AM SATURDAY MORNING. SEAS WILL QUICKLY BUILD
TO 5 TO 8 FEET OVER THE NEAR-SHORE WATERS...AND 7 TO 10 FEET WELL
OFFSHORE TONIGHT...BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING INTO SATURDAY. WE WILL
THEN CONTINUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL OF THE MARINE AREA LATE
SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY EVENING AS NORTHERLY WINDS
AROUND 20 KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25-30 KNOTS CONTINUE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SUNDAY TO THE
EASTERN SEABOARD BY MONDAY. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD DECREASE...BUT
STILL REMAIN MODERATE FROM THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY...THEN MORE EASTERLY
BY MONDAY. A MODERATE EAST FLOW SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MIDWEEK AS
HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN U.S. /21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      74  38  58  34  64 /  00  00  00  00  00
PENSACOLA   72  42  60  37  64 /  00  05  00  00  00
DESTIN      69  43  61  40  65 /  00  05  00  00  00
EVERGREEN   74  36  57  30  62 /  05  00  00  00  00
WAYNESBORO  72  35  58  30  62 /  05  00  00  00  00
CAMDEN      73  35  57  30  61 /  05  00  00  00  00
CRESTVIEW   75  38  60  31  65 /  05  05  00  00  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FREEZE WATCH FROM 1 AM SUNDAY TO 8 AM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BUTLER...CHOCTAW...CLARKE...CONECUH...CRENSHAW...
     MONROE...WASHINGTON...WILCOX...

FL...NONE.
MS...FREEZE WATCH FROM 1 AM SUNDAY TO 8 AM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: GREENE...PERRY...WAYNE...

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM FRIDAY TO 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...NORTHERN MOBILE BAY...
     PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...PERDIDO BAY...

     GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM SATURDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA
     MS OUT 20 NM...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY...
     WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM FRIDAY TO 10 PM FRIDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA
     MS OUT 20 NM...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY...
     WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA
     MS OUT 20 NM...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY...
     WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...

&&

$$

21/16








000
FXUS64 KMOB 310354
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1054 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.AVIATION...
310600Z TAF
DEEP LAYER DRY AIR WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS TO THE REGION FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. 77/BD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1002 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014/

UPDATE...ALTHOUGH THE TEMPERATURE IS ALREADY 7 DEGREES LESS THAN
FORECAST HERE AT MOB...WE WON`T CHANGE THE LOWS FOR TONIGHT. WE
BELIEVE THE DESCENT WILL SLOW DOWN LATER TONIGHT WHEN THE DEWPOINT
DEPRESSION GETS CLOSE TO ZERO AND WE START SEEING SOME LATENT HEAT
BEING RELEASED TO COUNTER THE DECREASING TEMPERATURE NEAR THE SUFACE.
77/BD

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 647 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014/

AVIATION...
310000Z TAF
DEEP LAYER DRY AIR WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. 77/BD

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...ON THE WEATHER MAPS
THIS AFTERNOON...COLD FRONT HAS MOVED FROM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST TO THE CENTRAL GULF. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS ORIENTED FROM
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TO EASTERN TEXAS. UPSTREAM...A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT IS TAKING SHAPE OVER THE PLAINS...WHICH WILL BE THE LEADING
EDGE OF A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS TO ARRIVE FOR THE WEEKEND. BEFORE
THEN...INITIAL HIGH WILL BE SLIDING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES
TONIGHT. SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR WITH NIGHTTIME LOWS BELOW SEASONAL BY 3
TO 6 DEGREES ON AVERAGE. NUMBERS RANGING FROM 38 TO 43 OVER THE
INTERIOR TO 47 TO 52 ALONG THE COAST. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...SECONDARY
COLD FRONT SURGES RAPIDLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST.
ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME CLOUDS PASSING THROUGH WITH THE
FRONT...LIMITED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE KEEPS RAIN CHANCES OUT OF THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST. FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...LATEST FORECAST
BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL NORTHWEST
FLOW WITH 25 TO 35 KNOTS IN THE LOWEST 4000 FEET. DUE TO
MIXING...THIS SUGGESTS THAT CONDITIONS WILL BECOME BREEZY THROUGH THE
COURSE OF THE DAY FRIDAY. NORTHWESTERLY WIND SPEEDS LOOK TO BE IN THE
15 TO 25 MPH RANGE WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS. LATEST GRIDDED WIND
GUSTS FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON ARE SHORT OF THE 30+ MPH RANGE NEEDED FOR
WIND ADVISORY ISSUANCE. WILL LET LATER SHIFTS ASSESS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES 72 TO 77 ON FRIDAY WILL BE SITTING NEAR CLIMATOLOGY FOR
THE LAST DAY OF OCTOBER. GET THE COATS READY FOR THE WEEKEND. /10

THE STRONGEST SURGE OF COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS THE POWERFUL SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTH
OF THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST CUTS OFF OVER UPSTATE GEORGIA/SOUTH
CAROLINA. IN FACT...1000-850MB THICKNESSES WILL DROP AN IMPRESSIVE 60
METERS FROM 00Z-12Z SAT. LOWS SATURDAY MORNING WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30S...EXCEPT FOR LOWER 40S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL MAKE IT FEEL LIKE THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S.

WHILE THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD
ON SATURDAY...A LARGE DOME OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
OVER THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. HIGHS
SATURDAY WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...WITH ONLY THE
COASTAL AREAS EXPECTED TO REACH 60/61. FREQUENT WIND GUSTS OF
20-30MPH THROUGH THE DAY WILL ALSO ADD AN EXTRA CHILL TO THE AIR.
WINDS DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT AND NEAR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE. THE FIRST FREEZE OF THE SEASON IS
POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE HWY 84 CORRIDOR. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 30S OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. 34/JFB

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...A GRADUAL MODERATION IN
TEMPERATURES COMMENCES ON SUNDAY AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE
AREA AND MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
HOWEVER...TEMPS WILL STAY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY WITH NEAR
SEASONAL LEVELS BY TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES REBOUND TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL MID TO LATE WEEK AS THE
MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA AND A DEEP LAYER
SOUTHERLY FLOW USHERS IN A WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIRMASS. AN ELONGATED
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SOUTHWEST INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST...WITH A PIECE OF THE ENERGY
BREAKING OFF AND MOVING MORE QUICKLY TOWARD OUR AREA. THERE ARE
TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE ON EXACTLY WHEN THIS FEATURE WILL
AFFECT THE AREA. WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT FORECAST OF LOW END RAIN
CHANCES (30%) FOR WED-THU UNTIL WE CAN BETTER PINPOINT WHEN THE
HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WILL BE. 34/JFB

AVIATION...
31.00Z TAF ISSUANCE
VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST IN THE NEAR TERM. LIGHT NORTH WINDS TONIGHT.
BASES OF CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRIDAY LOOK TO
RANGE FROM 3 TO 6 KFT. NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY
AND WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES. THIS POSES THE GREATEST HAZARD TO
ARRIVALS/DEPARTURES. /10

MARINE...SECONDARY COLD FRONT SURGES ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BRINGING STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW...ROUGH CONDITIONS
ON BAYS AND SOUNDS...AND BUILDING SEA STATES. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS LOOK TO BEGIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON. POTENTIAL OF GALE
CONDITIONS WITH FREQUENT WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 34 KNOTS EXISTS FOR
THE OPEN ALABAMA/NORTHWEST FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT AS
COLDER AIR MOVES OFF THE MAINLAND. FORECASTERS HAVE ISSUED A GALE
WATCH FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. THE LONGER AND MORE SUSTAINED NORTHERLY
FETCH FAVORS THE DEVELOPMENT OF HIGH SEAS WELL OFFSHORE WHERE LATEST
HIGH RESOLUTION FORECAST WAVE HEIGHTS INDICATE 8 TO 10 FEET IN THE 20
TO 60 NAUTICAL MILE ZONES LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW BEGINS TO DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY
SUNDAY AS THE AXIS OF THE STRONG HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. AN
EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND IS FORECAST FOR THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST. SEAS REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED. /10

FIRE WEATHER...DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL TEMPORARILY DECREASE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY BUT WILL BECOME QUITE GUSTY BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY. DISPERSIONS VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE
FROM 70 TO 80 ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH VALUES OVER 75 POSSIBLE
EAST OF INTERSTATE 65 ON SATURDAY. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BOTTOM
OUT IN THE 30 TO 35 PERCENT RANGE TOMORROW...AND LIKELY DIP
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20 PERCENT RANGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE
COMBINATION OF LOW HUMIDITY...GUSTY WINDS...AND ERC VALUES NEAR 26
MAY REACH RED FLAG CRITERIA ACROSS THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MAY BECOME NECESSARY. 34/JFB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      46  74  37  59  35 /  00  00  00  00  00
PENSACOLA   49  75  41  61  38 /  00  00  00  00  00
DESTIN      52  74  43  60  41 /  00  00  00  00  00
EVERGREEN   40  74  36  58  32 /  00  00  00  00  00
WAYNESBORO  40  72  34  57  32 /  00  00  00  00  00
CAMDEN      40  72  34  57  31 /  00  00  00  00  00
CRESTVIEW   38  77  38  61  34 /  00  00  00  00  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM FRIDAY TO 10 PM FRIDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA
     MS OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM
     20 TO 60 NM...

     GALE WATCH FROM 10 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT
     20 NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA
     MS OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM
     20 TO 60 NM...

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM FRIDAY TO 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...
     NORTHERN MOBILE BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...PERDIDO BAY...
     SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY...

&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KMOB 310354
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1054 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.AVIATION...
310600Z TAF
DEEP LAYER DRY AIR WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS TO THE REGION FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. 77/BD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1002 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014/

UPDATE...ALTHOUGH THE TEMPERATURE IS ALREADY 7 DEGREES LESS THAN
FORECAST HERE AT MOB...WE WON`T CHANGE THE LOWS FOR TONIGHT. WE
BELIEVE THE DESCENT WILL SLOW DOWN LATER TONIGHT WHEN THE DEWPOINT
DEPRESSION GETS CLOSE TO ZERO AND WE START SEEING SOME LATENT HEAT
BEING RELEASED TO COUNTER THE DECREASING TEMPERATURE NEAR THE SUFACE.
77/BD

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 647 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014/

AVIATION...
310000Z TAF
DEEP LAYER DRY AIR WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. 77/BD

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...ON THE WEATHER MAPS
THIS AFTERNOON...COLD FRONT HAS MOVED FROM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST TO THE CENTRAL GULF. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS ORIENTED FROM
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TO EASTERN TEXAS. UPSTREAM...A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT IS TAKING SHAPE OVER THE PLAINS...WHICH WILL BE THE LEADING
EDGE OF A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS TO ARRIVE FOR THE WEEKEND. BEFORE
THEN...INITIAL HIGH WILL BE SLIDING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES
TONIGHT. SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR WITH NIGHTTIME LOWS BELOW SEASONAL BY 3
TO 6 DEGREES ON AVERAGE. NUMBERS RANGING FROM 38 TO 43 OVER THE
INTERIOR TO 47 TO 52 ALONG THE COAST. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...SECONDARY
COLD FRONT SURGES RAPIDLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST.
ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME CLOUDS PASSING THROUGH WITH THE
FRONT...LIMITED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE KEEPS RAIN CHANCES OUT OF THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST. FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...LATEST FORECAST
BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL NORTHWEST
FLOW WITH 25 TO 35 KNOTS IN THE LOWEST 4000 FEET. DUE TO
MIXING...THIS SUGGESTS THAT CONDITIONS WILL BECOME BREEZY THROUGH THE
COURSE OF THE DAY FRIDAY. NORTHWESTERLY WIND SPEEDS LOOK TO BE IN THE
15 TO 25 MPH RANGE WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS. LATEST GRIDDED WIND
GUSTS FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON ARE SHORT OF THE 30+ MPH RANGE NEEDED FOR
WIND ADVISORY ISSUANCE. WILL LET LATER SHIFTS ASSESS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES 72 TO 77 ON FRIDAY WILL BE SITTING NEAR CLIMATOLOGY FOR
THE LAST DAY OF OCTOBER. GET THE COATS READY FOR THE WEEKEND. /10

THE STRONGEST SURGE OF COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS THE POWERFUL SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTH
OF THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST CUTS OFF OVER UPSTATE GEORGIA/SOUTH
CAROLINA. IN FACT...1000-850MB THICKNESSES WILL DROP AN IMPRESSIVE 60
METERS FROM 00Z-12Z SAT. LOWS SATURDAY MORNING WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30S...EXCEPT FOR LOWER 40S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL MAKE IT FEEL LIKE THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S.

WHILE THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD
ON SATURDAY...A LARGE DOME OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
OVER THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. HIGHS
SATURDAY WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...WITH ONLY THE
COASTAL AREAS EXPECTED TO REACH 60/61. FREQUENT WIND GUSTS OF
20-30MPH THROUGH THE DAY WILL ALSO ADD AN EXTRA CHILL TO THE AIR.
WINDS DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT AND NEAR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE. THE FIRST FREEZE OF THE SEASON IS
POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE HWY 84 CORRIDOR. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 30S OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. 34/JFB

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...A GRADUAL MODERATION IN
TEMPERATURES COMMENCES ON SUNDAY AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE
AREA AND MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
HOWEVER...TEMPS WILL STAY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY WITH NEAR
SEASONAL LEVELS BY TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES REBOUND TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL MID TO LATE WEEK AS THE
MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA AND A DEEP LAYER
SOUTHERLY FLOW USHERS IN A WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIRMASS. AN ELONGATED
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SOUTHWEST INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST...WITH A PIECE OF THE ENERGY
BREAKING OFF AND MOVING MORE QUICKLY TOWARD OUR AREA. THERE ARE
TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE ON EXACTLY WHEN THIS FEATURE WILL
AFFECT THE AREA. WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT FORECAST OF LOW END RAIN
CHANCES (30%) FOR WED-THU UNTIL WE CAN BETTER PINPOINT WHEN THE
HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WILL BE. 34/JFB

AVIATION...
31.00Z TAF ISSUANCE
VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST IN THE NEAR TERM. LIGHT NORTH WINDS TONIGHT.
BASES OF CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRIDAY LOOK TO
RANGE FROM 3 TO 6 KFT. NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY
AND WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES. THIS POSES THE GREATEST HAZARD TO
ARRIVALS/DEPARTURES. /10

MARINE...SECONDARY COLD FRONT SURGES ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BRINGING STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW...ROUGH CONDITIONS
ON BAYS AND SOUNDS...AND BUILDING SEA STATES. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS LOOK TO BEGIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON. POTENTIAL OF GALE
CONDITIONS WITH FREQUENT WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 34 KNOTS EXISTS FOR
THE OPEN ALABAMA/NORTHWEST FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT AS
COLDER AIR MOVES OFF THE MAINLAND. FORECASTERS HAVE ISSUED A GALE
WATCH FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. THE LONGER AND MORE SUSTAINED NORTHERLY
FETCH FAVORS THE DEVELOPMENT OF HIGH SEAS WELL OFFSHORE WHERE LATEST
HIGH RESOLUTION FORECAST WAVE HEIGHTS INDICATE 8 TO 10 FEET IN THE 20
TO 60 NAUTICAL MILE ZONES LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW BEGINS TO DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY
SUNDAY AS THE AXIS OF THE STRONG HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. AN
EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND IS FORECAST FOR THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST. SEAS REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED. /10

FIRE WEATHER...DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL TEMPORARILY DECREASE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY BUT WILL BECOME QUITE GUSTY BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY. DISPERSIONS VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE
FROM 70 TO 80 ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH VALUES OVER 75 POSSIBLE
EAST OF INTERSTATE 65 ON SATURDAY. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BOTTOM
OUT IN THE 30 TO 35 PERCENT RANGE TOMORROW...AND LIKELY DIP
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20 PERCENT RANGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE
COMBINATION OF LOW HUMIDITY...GUSTY WINDS...AND ERC VALUES NEAR 26
MAY REACH RED FLAG CRITERIA ACROSS THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MAY BECOME NECESSARY. 34/JFB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      46  74  37  59  35 /  00  00  00  00  00
PENSACOLA   49  75  41  61  38 /  00  00  00  00  00
DESTIN      52  74  43  60  41 /  00  00  00  00  00
EVERGREEN   40  74  36  58  32 /  00  00  00  00  00
WAYNESBORO  40  72  34  57  32 /  00  00  00  00  00
CAMDEN      40  72  34  57  31 /  00  00  00  00  00
CRESTVIEW   38  77  38  61  34 /  00  00  00  00  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM FRIDAY TO 10 PM FRIDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA
     MS OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM
     20 TO 60 NM...

     GALE WATCH FROM 10 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT
     20 NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA
     MS OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM
     20 TO 60 NM...

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM FRIDAY TO 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...
     NORTHERN MOBILE BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...PERDIDO BAY...
     SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY...

&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KMOB 310302
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1002 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.UPDATE...ALTHOUGH THE TEMPERATURE IS ALREADY 7 DEGREES LESS THAN
FORECAST HERE AT MOB...WE WON`T CHANGE THE LOWS FOR TONIGHT. WE
BELIEVE THE DESCENT WILL SLOW DOWN LATER TONIGHT WHEN THE DEWPOINT
DEPRESSION GETS CLOSE TO ZERO AND WE START SEEING SOME LATENT HEAT
BEING RELEASED TO COUNTER THE DECREASING TEMPERATURE NEAR THE SUFACE.
77/BD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 647 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014/

AVIATION...
310000Z TAF
DEEP LAYER DRY AIR WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. 77/BD

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...ON THE WEATHER MAPS
THIS AFTERNOON...COLD FRONT HAS MOVED FROM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST TO THE CENTRAL GULF. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS ORIENTED FROM
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TO EASTERN TEXAS. UPSTREAM...A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT IS TAKING SHAPE OVER THE PLAINS...WHICH WILL BE THE LEADING
EDGE OF A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS TO ARRIVE FOR THE WEEKEND. BEFORE
THEN...INITIAL HIGH WILL BE SLIDING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES
TONIGHT. SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR WITH NIGHTTIME LOWS BELOW SEASONAL BY 3
TO 6 DEGREES ON AVERAGE. NUMBERS RANGING FROM 38 TO 43 OVER THE
INTERIOR TO 47 TO 52 ALONG THE COAST. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...SECONDARY
COLD FRONT SURGES RAPIDLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST.
ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME CLOUDS PASSING THROUGH WITH THE
FRONT...LIMITED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE KEEPS RAIN CHANCES OUT OF THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST. FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...LATEST FORECAST
BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL NORTHWEST
FLOW WITH 25 TO 35 KNOTS IN THE LOWEST 4000 FEET. DUE TO
MIXING...THIS SUGGESTS THAT CONDITIONS WILL BECOME BREEZY THROUGH THE
COURSE OF THE DAY FRIDAY. NORTHWESTERLY WIND SPEEDS LOOK TO BE IN THE
15 TO 25 MPH RANGE WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS. LATEST GRIDDED WIND
GUSTS FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON ARE SHORT OF THE 30+ MPH RANGE NEEDED FOR
WIND ADVISORY ISSUANCE. WILL LET LATER SHIFTS ASSESS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES 72 TO 77 ON FRIDAY WILL BE SITTING NEAR CLIMATOLOGY FOR
THE LAST DAY OF OCTOBER. GET THE COATS READY FOR THE WEEKEND. /10

THE STRONGEST SURGE OF COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS THE POWERFUL SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTH
OF THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST CUTS OFF OVER UPSTATE GEORGIA/SOUTH
CAROLINA. IN FACT...1000-850MB THICKNESSES WILL DROP AN IMPRESSIVE 60
METERS FROM 00Z-12Z SAT. LOWS SATURDAY MORNING WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30S...EXCEPT FOR LOWER 40S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL MAKE IT FEEL LIKE THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S.

WHILE THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD
ON SATURDAY...A LARGE DOME OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
OVER THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. HIGHS
SATURDAY WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...WITH ONLY THE
COASTAL AREAS EXPECTED TO REACH 60/61. FREQUENT WIND GUSTS OF
20-30MPH THROUGH THE DAY WILL ALSO ADD AN EXTRA CHILL TO THE AIR.
WINDS DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT AND NEAR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE. THE FIRST FREEZE OF THE SEASON IS
POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE HWY 84 CORRIDOR. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 30S OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. 34/JFB

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...A GRADUAL MODERATION IN
TEMPERATURES COMMENCES ON SUNDAY AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE
AREA AND MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
HOWEVER...TEMPS WILL STAY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY WITH NEAR
SEASONAL LEVELS BY TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES REBOUND TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL MID TO LATE WEEK AS THE
MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA AND A DEEP LAYER
SOUTHERLY FLOW USHERS IN A WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIRMASS. AN ELONGATED
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SOUTHWEST INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST...WITH A PIECE OF THE ENERGY
BREAKING OFF AND MOVING MORE QUICKLY TOWARD OUR AREA. THERE ARE
TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE ON EXACTLY WHEN THIS FEATURE WILL
AFFECT THE AREA. WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT FORECAST OF LOW END RAIN
CHANCES (30%) FOR WED-THU UNTIL WE CAN BETTER PINPOINT WHEN THE
HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WILL BE. 34/JFB

AVIATION...
31.00Z TAF ISSUANCE
VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST IN THE NEAR TERM. LIGHT NORTH WINDS TONIGHT.
BASES OF CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRIDAY LOOK TO
RANGE FROM 3 TO 6 KFT. NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY
AND WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES. THIS POSES THE GREATEST HAZARD TO
ARRIVALS/DEPARTURES. /10

MARINE...SECONDARY COLD FRONT SURGES ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BRINGING STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW...ROUGH CONDITIONS
ON BAYS AND SOUNDS...AND BUILDING SEA STATES. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS LOOK TO BEGIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON. POTENTIAL OF GALE
CONDITIONS WITH FREQUENT WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 34 KNOTS EXISTS FOR
THE OPEN ALABAMA/NORTHWEST FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT AS
COLDER AIR MOVES OFF THE MAINLAND. FORECASTERS HAVE ISSUED A GALE
WATCH FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. THE LONGER AND MORE SUSTAINED NORTHERLY
FETCH FAVORS THE DEVELOPMENT OF HIGH SEAS WELL OFFSHORE WHERE LATEST
HIGH RESOLUTION FORECAST WAVE HEIGHTS INDICATE 8 TO 10 FEET IN THE 20
TO 60 NAUTICAL MILE ZONES LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW BEGINS TO DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY
SUNDAY AS THE AXIS OF THE STRONG HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. AN
EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND IS FORECAST FOR THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST. SEAS REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED. /10

FIRE WEATHER...DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL TEMPORARILY DECREASE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY BUT WILL BECOME QUITE GUSTY BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY. DISPERSIONS VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE
FROM 70 TO 80 ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH VALUES OVER 75 POSSIBLE
EAST OF INTERSTATE 65 ON SATURDAY. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BOTTOM
OUT IN THE 30 TO 35 PERCENT RANGE TOMORROW...AND LIKELY DIP
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20 PERCENT RANGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE
COMBINATION OF LOW HUMIDITY...GUSTY WINDS...AND ERC VALUES NEAR 26
MAY REACH RED FLAG CRITERIA ACROSS THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MAY BECOME NECESSARY. 34/JFB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      43  74  37  59  35 /  00  00  00  00  00
PENSACOLA   46  75  41  61  38 /  00  00  00  00  00
DESTIN      49  74  43  60  41 /  00  00  00  00  00
EVERGREEN   37  74  36  58  32 /  00  00  00  00  00
WAYNESBORO  37  72  34  57  32 /  00  00  00  00  00
CAMDEN      37  72  34  57  31 /  00  00  00  00  00
CRESTVIEW   35  77  38  61  34 /  00  00  00  00  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM FRIDAY TO 10 PM FRIDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA
     MS OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM
     20 TO 60 NM...

     GALE WATCH FROM 10 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT
     20 NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA
     MS OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM
     20 TO 60 NM...

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM FRIDAY TO 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...
     NORTHERN MOBILE BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...PERDIDO BAY...
     SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY...

&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KMOB 302347
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
647 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014


.AVIATION...
310000Z TAF
DEEP LAYER DRY AIR WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. 77/BD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...ON THE WEATHER MAPS
THIS AFTERNOON...COLD FRONT HAS MOVED FROM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST TO THE CENTRAL GULF. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS ORIENTED FROM
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TO EASTERN TEXAS. UPSTREAM...A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT IS TAKING SHAPE OVER THE PLAINS...WHICH WILL BE THE LEADING
EDGE OF A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS TO ARRIVE FOR THE WEEKEND. BEFORE
THEN...INITIAL HIGH WILL BE SLIDING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES
TONIGHT. SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR WITH NIGHTTIME LOWS BELOW SEASONAL BY 3
TO 6 DEGREES ON AVERAGE. NUMBERS RANGING FROM 38 TO 43 OVER THE
INTERIOR TO 47 TO 52 ALONG THE COAST. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...SECONDARY
COLD FRONT SURGES RAPIDLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST.
ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME CLOUDS PASSING THROUGH WITH THE
FRONT...LIMITED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE KEEPS RAIN CHANCES OUT OF THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST. FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...LATEST FORECAST
BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL NORTHWEST
FLOW WITH 25 TO 35 KNOTS IN THE LOWEST 4000 FEET. DUE TO
MIXING...THIS SUGGESTS THAT CONDITIONS WILL BECOME BREEZY THROUGH THE
COURSE OF THE DAY FRIDAY. NORTHWESTERLY WIND SPEEDS LOOK TO BE IN THE
15 TO 25 MPH RANGE WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS. LATEST GRIDDED WIND
GUSTS FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON ARE SHORT OF THE 30+ MPH RANGE NEEDED FOR
WIND ADVISORY ISSUANCE. WILL LET LATER SHIFTS ASSESS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES 72 TO 77 ON FRIDAY WILL BE SITTING NEAR CLIMATOLOGY FOR
THE LAST DAY OF OCTOBER. GET THE COATS READY FOR THE WEEKEND. /10

THE STRONGEST SURGE OF COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS THE POWERFUL SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTH
OF THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST CUTS OFF OVER UPSTATE GEORGIA/SOUTH
CAROLINA. IN FACT...1000-850MB THICKNESSES WILL DROP AN IMPRESSIVE 60
METERS FROM 00Z-12Z SAT. LOWS SATURDAY MORNING WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30S...EXCEPT FOR LOWER 40S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL MAKE IT FEEL LIKE THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S.

WHILE THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD
ON SATURDAY...A LARGE DOME OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
OVER THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. HIGHS
SATURDAY WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...WITH ONLY THE
COASTAL AREAS EXPECTED TO REACH 60/61. FREQUENT WIND GUSTS OF
20-30MPH THROUGH THE DAY WILL ALSO ADD AN EXTRA CHILL TO THE AIR.
WINDS DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT AND NEAR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE. THE FIRST FREEZE OF THE SEASON IS
POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE HWY 84 CORRIDOR. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 30S OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. 34/JFB

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...A GRADUAL MODERATION IN
TEMPERATURES COMMENCES ON SUNDAY AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE
AREA AND MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
HOWEVER...TEMPS WILL STAY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY WITH NEAR
SEASONAL LEVELS BY TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES REBOUND TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL MID TO LATE WEEK AS THE
MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA AND A DEEP LAYER
SOUTHERLY FLOW USHERS IN A WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIRMASS. AN ELONGATED
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SOUTHWEST INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST...WITH A PIECE OF THE ENERGY
BREAKING OFF AND MOVING MORE QUICKLY TOWARD OUR AREA. THERE ARE
TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE ON EXACTLY WHEN THIS FEATURE WILL
AFFECT THE AREA. WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT FORECAST OF LOW END RAIN
CHANCES (30%) FOR WED-THU UNTIL WE CAN BETTER PINPOINT WHEN THE
HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WILL BE. 34/JFB

AVIATION...
31.00Z TAF ISSUANCE
VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST IN THE NEAR TERM. LIGHT NORTH WINDS TONIGHT.
BASES OF CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRIDAY LOOK TO
RANGE FROM 3 TO 6 KFT. NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY
AND WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES. THIS POSES THE GREATEST HAZARD TO
ARRIVALS/DEPARTURES. /10

MARINE...SECONDARY COLD FRONT SURGES ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BRINGING STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW...ROUGH CONDITIONS
ON BAYS AND SOUNDS...AND BUILDING SEA STATES. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS LOOK TO BEGIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON. POTENTIAL OF GALE
CONDITIONS WITH FREQUENT WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 34 KNOTS EXISTS FOR
THE OPEN ALABAMA/NORTHWEST FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT AS
COLDER AIR MOVES OFF THE MAINLAND. FORECASTERS HAVE ISSUED A GALE
WATCH FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. THE LONGER AND MORE SUSTAINED NORTHERLY
FETCH FAVORS THE DEVELOPMENT OF HIGH SEAS WELL OFFSHORE WHERE LATEST
HIGH RESOLUTION FORECAST WAVE HEIGHTS INDICATE 8 TO 10 FEET IN THE 20
TO 60 NAUTICAL MILE ZONES LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW BEGINS TO DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY
SUNDAY AS THE AXIS OF THE STRONG HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. AN
EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND IS FORECAST FOR THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST. SEAS REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED. /10

FIRE WEATHER...DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL TEMPORARILY DECREASE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY BUT WILL BECOME QUITE GUSTY BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY. DISPERSIONS VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE
FROM 70 TO 80 ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH VALUES OVER 75 POSSIBLE
EAST OF INTERSTATE 65 ON SATURDAY. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BOTTOM
OUT IN THE 30 TO 35 PERCENT RANGE TOMORROW...AND LIKELY DIP
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20 PERCENT RANGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE
COMBINATION OF LOW HUMIDITY...GUSTY WINDS...AND ERC VALUES NEAR 26
MAY REACH RED FLAG CRITERIA ACROSS THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MAY BECOME NECESSARY. 34/JFB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      46  74  37  59  35 /  00  00  00  00  00
PENSACOLA   49  75  41  61  38 /  00  00  00  00  00
DESTIN      52  74  43  60  41 /  00  00  00  00  00
EVERGREEN   40  74  36  58  32 /  00  00  00  00  00
WAYNESBORO  40  72  34  57  32 /  00  00  00  00  00
CAMDEN      40  72  34  57  31 /  00  00  00  00  00
CRESTVIEW   38  77  38  61  34 /  00  00  00  00  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM FRIDAY TO 10 PM FRIDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA
     MS OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM
     20 TO 60 NM...

     GALE WATCH FROM 10 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT
     20 NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA
     MS OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM
     20 TO 60 NM...

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM FRIDAY TO 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...
     NORTHERN MOBILE BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...PERDIDO BAY...
     SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY...

&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KMOB 302050 CCA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
349 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

CORRECTED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND GALE WATCH TIMING...

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...ON THE WEATHER MAPS
THIS AFTERNOON...COLD FRONT HAS MOVED FROM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST TO THE CENTRAL GULF. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS ORIENTED FROM
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TO EASTERN TEXAS. UPSTREAM...A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT IS TAKING SHAPE OVER THE PLAINS...WHICH WILL BE THE LEADING
EDGE OF A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS TO ARRIVE FOR THE WEEKEND. BEFORE
THEN...INITIAL HIGH WILL BE SLIDING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES
TONIGHT. SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR WITH NIGHTTIME LOWS BELOW SEASONAL BY 3
TO 6 DEGREES ON AVERAGE. NUMBERS RANGING FROM 38 TO 43 OVER THE
INTERIOR TO 47 TO 52 ALONG THE COAST. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...SECONDARY
COLD FRONT SURGES RAPIDLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST.
ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME CLOUDS PASSING THROUGH WITH THE
FRONT...LIMITED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE KEEPS RAIN CHANCES OUT OF THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST. FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...LATEST FORECAST
BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL NORTHWEST
FLOW WITH 25 TO 35 KNOTS IN THE LOWEST 4000 FEET. DUE TO
MIXING...THIS SUGGESTS THAT CONDITIONS WILL BECOME BREEZY THROUGH THE
COURSE OF THE DAY FRIDAY. NORTHWESTERLY WIND SPEEDS LOOK TO BE IN THE
15 TO 25 MPH RANGE WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS. LATEST GRIDDED WIND
GUSTS FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON ARE SHORT OF THE 30+ MPH RANGE NEEDED FOR
WIND ADVISORY ISSUANCE. WILL LET LATER SHIFTS ASSESS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES 72 TO 77 ON FRIDAY WILL BE SITTING NEAR CLIMATOLOGY FOR
THE LAST DAY OF OCTOBER. GET THE COATS READY FOR THE WEEKEND. /10

THE STRONGEST SURGE OF COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS THE POWERFUL SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTH
OF THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST CUTS OFF OVER UPSTATE GEORGIA/SOUTH
CAROLINA. IN FACT...1000-850MB THICKNESSES WILL DROP AN IMPRESSIVE 60
METERS FROM 00Z-12Z SAT. LOWS SATURDAY MORNING WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30S...EXCEPT FOR LOWER 40S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL MAKE IT FEEL LIKE THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S.

WHILE THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD
ON SATURDAY...A LARGE DOME OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
OVER THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. HIGHS
SATURDAY WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...WITH ONLY THE
COASTAL AREAS EXPECTED TO REACH 60/61. FREQUENT WIND GUSTS OF
20-30MPH THROUGH THE DAY WILL ALSO ADD AN EXTRA CHILL TO THE AIR.
WINDS DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT AND NEAR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE. THE FIRST FREEZE OF THE SEASON IS
POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE HWY 84 CORRIDOR. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 30S OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. 34/JFB

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...A GRADUAL MODERATION IN
TEMPERATURES COMMENCES ON SUNDAY AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE
AREA AND MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
HOWEVER...TEMPS WILL STAY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY WITH NEAR
SEASONAL LEVELS BY TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES REBOUND TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL MID TO LATE WEEK AS THE
MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA AND A DEEP LAYER
SOUTHERLY FLOW USHERS IN A WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIRMASS. AN ELONGATED
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SOUTHWEST INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST...WITH A PIECE OF THE ENERGY
BREAKING OFF AND MOVING MORE QUICKLY TOWARD OUR AREA. THERE ARE
TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE ON EXACTLY WHEN THIS FEATURE WILL
AFFECT THE AREA. WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT FORECAST OF LOW END RAIN
CHANCES (30%) FOR WED-THU UNTIL WE CAN BETTER PINPOINT WHEN THE
HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WILL BE. 34/JFB

&&

.AVIATION...
31.00Z TAF ISSUANCE
VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST IN THE NEAR TERM. LIGHT NORTH WINDS TONIGHT.
BASES OF CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRIDAY LOOK TO
RANGE FROM 3 TO 6 KFT. NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY
AND WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES. THIS POSES THE GREATEST HAZARD TO
ARRIVALS/DEPARTURES. /10

&&

.MARINE...SECONDARY COLD FRONT SURGES ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BRINGING STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW...ROUGH CONDITIONS
ON BAYS AND SOUNDS...AND BUILDING SEA STATES. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS LOOK TO BEGIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON. POTENTIAL OF GALE
CONDITIONS WITH FREQUENT WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 34 KNOTS EXISTS FOR
THE OPEN ALABAMA/NORTHWEST FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT AS
COLDER AIR MOVES OFF THE MAINLAND. FORECASTERS HAVE ISSUED A GALE
WATCH FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. THE LONGER AND MORE SUSTAINED NORTHERLY
FETCH FAVORS THE DEVELOPMENT OF HIGH SEAS WELL OFFSHORE WHERE LATEST
HIGH RESOLUTION FORECAST WAVE HEIGHTS INDICATE 8 TO 10 FEET IN THE 20
TO 60 NAUTICAL MILE ZONES LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW BEGINS TO DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY
SUNDAY AS THE AXIS OF THE STRONG HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. AN
EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND IS FORECAST FOR THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST. SEAS REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED. /10

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL TEMPORARILY DECREASE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY BUT WILL BECOME QUITE GUSTY BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY. DISPERSIONS VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE
FROM 70 TO 80 ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH VALUES OVER 75 POSSIBLE
EAST OF INTERSTATE 65 ON SATURDAY. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BOTTOM
OUT IN THE 30 TO 35 PERCENT RANGE TOMORROW...AND LIKELY DIP
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20 PERCENT RANGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE
COMBINATION OF LOW HUMIDITY...GUSTY WINDS...AND ERC VALUES NEAR 26
MAY REACH RED FLAG CRITERIA ACROSS THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MAY BECOME NECESSARY. 34/JFB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      46  74  37  59  35 /  00  00  00  00  00
PENSACOLA   49  75  41  61  38 /  00  00  00  00  00
DESTIN      52  74  43  60  41 /  00  00  00  00  00
EVERGREEN   40  74  36  58  32 /  00  00  00  00  00
WAYNESBORO  40  72  34  57  32 /  00  00  00  00  00
CAMDEN      40  72  34  57  31 /  00  00  00  00  00
CRESTVIEW   38  77  38  61  34 /  00  00  00  00  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM FRIDAY TO 10 PM FRIDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA
     MS OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM
     20 TO 60 NM...

     GALE WATCH FROM 10 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT
     20 NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA
     MS OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM
     20 TO 60 NM...

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM FRIDAY TO 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...
     NORTHERN MOBILE BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...PERDIDO BAY...
     SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY...

&&

$$













000
FXUS64 KMOB 302033
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
333 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...ON THE WEATHER MAPS
THIS AFTERNOON...COLD FRONT HAS MOVED FROM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST TO THE CENTRAL GULF. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS ORIENTED FROM
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TO EASTERN TEXAS. UPSTREAM...A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT IS TAKING SHAPE OVER THE PLAINS...WHICH WILL BE THE LEADING
EDGE OF A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS TO ARRIVE FOR THE WEEKEND. BEFORE
THEN...INITIAL HIGH WILL BE SLIDING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES
TONIGHT. SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR WITH NIGHTTIME LOWS BELOW SEASONAL BY 3
TO 6 DEGREES ON AVERAGE. NUMBERS RANGING FROM 38 TO 43 OVER THE
INTERIOR TO 47 TO 52 ALONG THE COAST. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...SECONDARY
COLD FRONT SURGES RAPIDLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST.
ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME CLOUDS PASSING THROUGH WITH THE
FRONT...LIMITED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE KEEPS RAIN CHANCES OUT OF THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST. FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...LATEST FORECAST
BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL NORTHWEST
FLOW WITH 25 TO 35 KNOTS IN THE LOWEST 4000 FEET. DUE TO
MIXING...THIS SUGGESTS THAT CONDITIONS WILL BECOME BREEZY THROUGH THE
COURSE OF THE DAY FRIDAY. NORTHWESTERLY WIND SPEEDS LOOK TO BE IN THE
15 TO 25 MPH RANGE WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS. LATEST GRIDDED WIND
GUSTS FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON ARE SHORT OF THE 30+ MPH RANGE NEEDED FOR
WIND ADVISORY ISSUANCE. WILL LET LATER SHIFTS ASSESS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES 72 TO 77 ON FRIDAY WILL BE SITTING NEAR CLIMATOLOGY FOR
THE LAST DAY OF OCTOBER. GET THE COATS READY FOR THE WEEKEND. /10

THE STRONGEST SURGE OF COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS THE POWERFUL SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTH
OF THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST CUTS OFF OVER UPSTATE GEORGIA/SOUTH
CAROLINA. IN FACT...1000-850MB THICKNESSES WILL DROP AN IMPRESSIVE 60
METERS FROM 00Z-12Z SAT. LOWS SATURDAY MORNING WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30S...EXCEPT FOR LOWER 40S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL MAKE IT FEEL LIKE THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S.

WHILE THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD
ON SATURDAY...A LARGE DOME OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
OVER THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. HIGHS
SATURDAY WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...WITH ONLY THE
COASTAL AREAS EXPECTED TO REACH 60/61. FREQUENT WIND GUSTS OF
20-30MPH THROUGH THE DAY WILL ALSO ADD AN EXTRA CHILL TO THE AIR.
WINDS DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT AND NEAR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE. THE FIRST FREEZE OF THE SEASON IS
POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE HWY 84 CORRIDOR. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 30S OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. 34/JFB

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...A GRADUAL MODERATION IN
TEMPERATURES COMMENCES ON SUNDAY AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE
AREA AND MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
HOWEVER...TEMPS WILL STAY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY WITH NEAR
SEASONAL LEVELS BY TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES REBOUND TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL MID TO LATE WEEK AS THE
MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA AND A DEEP LAYER
SOUTHERLY FLOW USHERS IN A WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIRMASS. AN ELONGATED
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SOUTHWEST INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST...WITH A PIECE OF THE ENERGY
BREAKING OFF AND MOVING MORE QUICKLY TOWARD OUR AREA. THERE ARE
TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE ON EXACTLY WHEN THIS FEATURE WILL
AFFECT THE AREA. WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT FORECAST OF LOW END RAIN
CHANCES (30%) FOR WED-THU UNTIL WE CAN BETTER PINPOINT WHEN THE
HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WILL BE. 34/JFB

&&

.AVIATION...
31.00Z TAF ISSUANCE
VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST IN THE NEAR TERM. LIGHT NORTH WINDS TONIGHT.
BASES OF CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRIDAY LOOK TO
RANGE FROM 3 TO 6 KFT. NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY
AND WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES. THIS POSES THE GREATEST HAZARD TO
ARRIVALS/DEPARTURES. /10

&&

.MARINE...SECONDARY COLD FRONT SURGES ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BRINGING STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW...ROUGH CONDITIONS
ON BAYS AND SOUNDS...AND BUILDING SEA STATES. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS LOOK TO BEGIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON. POTENTIAL OF GALE
CONDITIONS WITH FREQUENT WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 34 KNOTS EXISTS FOR
THE OPEN ALABAMA/NORTHWEST FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT AS
COLDER AIR MOVES OFF THE MAINLAND. FORECASTERS HAVE ISSUED A GALE
WATCH FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. THE LONGER AND MORE SUSTAINED NORTHERLY
FETCH FAVORS THE DEVELOPMENT OF HIGH SEAS WELL OFFSHORE WHERE LATEST
HIGH RESOLUTION FORECAST WAVE HEIGHTS INDICATE 8 TO 10 FEET IN THE 20
TO 60 NAUTICAL MILE ZONES LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW BEGINS TO DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY
SUNDAY AS THE AXIS OF THE STRONG HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. AN
EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND IS FORECAST FOR THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST. SEAS REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED. /10

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL TEMPORARILY DECREASE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY BUT WILL BECOME QUITE GUSTY BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY. DISPERSIONS VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE
FROM 70 TO 80 ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH VALUES OVER 75 POSSIBLE
EAST OF INTERSTATE 65 ON SATURDAY. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BOTTOM
OUT IN THE 30 TO 35 PERCENT RANGE TOMORROW...AND LIKELY DIP
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20 PERCENT RANGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE
COMBINATION OF LOW HUMIDITY...GUSTY WINDS...AND ERC VALUES NEAR 26
MAY REACH RED FLAG CRITERIA ACROSS THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MAY BECOME NECESSARY. 34/JFB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      46  74  37  59  35 /  00  00  00  00  00
PENSACOLA   49  75  41  61  38 /  00  00  00  00  00
DESTIN      52  74  43  60  41 /  00  00  00  00  00
EVERGREEN   40  74  36  58  32 /  00  00  00  00  00
WAYNESBORO  40  72  34  57  32 /  00  00  00  00  00
CAMDEN      40  72  34  57  31 /  00  00  00  00  00
CRESTVIEW   38  77  38  61  34 /  00  00  00  00  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM FRIDAY TO 10 PM FRIDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA
     MS OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM
     20 TO 60 NM...

     GALE WATCH FROM 10 PM FRIDAY TO 9 AM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT
     20 NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM FRIDAY TO 9 AM SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...
     NORTHERN MOBILE BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...PERDIDO BAY...
     SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY...

&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KMOB 301729
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1229 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.AVIATION...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION.

MODERATE NORTH WINDS WILL DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON...BECOMING LIGHT AROUND 5 KT OVER THE AREA. VERY DRY
VERTICAL ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE WILL KEEP CLOUDS OUT OF THE QUESTION
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      74  45  74  39  58 /  00  00  00  00  00
PENSACOLA   76  48  73  43  59 /  00  00  00  00  00
DESTIN      75  51  71  44  59 /  00  00  00  00  00
EVERGREEN   72  40  74  36  58 /  00  00  00  00  00
WAYNESBORO  73  40  72  34  58 /  00  00  00  00  00
CAMDEN      71  40  72  34  58 /  00  00  00  00  00
CRESTVIEW   75  38  75  39  60 /  00  00  00  00  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

CRP/90








000
FXUS64 KMOB 301729
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1229 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.AVIATION...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION.

MODERATE NORTH WINDS WILL DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON...BECOMING LIGHT AROUND 5 KT OVER THE AREA. VERY DRY
VERTICAL ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE WILL KEEP CLOUDS OUT OF THE QUESTION
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      74  45  74  39  58 /  00  00  00  00  00
PENSACOLA   76  48  73  43  59 /  00  00  00  00  00
DESTIN      75  51  71  44  59 /  00  00  00  00  00
EVERGREEN   72  40  74  36  58 /  00  00  00  00  00
WAYNESBORO  73  40  72  34  58 /  00  00  00  00  00
CAMDEN      71  40  72  34  58 /  00  00  00  00  00
CRESTVIEW   75  38  75  39  60 /  00  00  00  00  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

CRP/90








000
FXUS64 KMOB 301544
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1044 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.UPDATE...BUMPED UP THE WINDS AND GUSTS OVER THE BAYS AND COASTAL
WATERS TO REFLECT SCEC LEVEL WINDS OBSERVED THIS MORNING...AND
UPDATED THE CWF TO REFLECT THESE CHANGES. OTHERWISE FORECAST SEEMS TO
BE ON TRACK FOR THE MOST PART.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 420 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014/

SHORT TERM [TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT]...MID TO UPPER TROF AXIS WITH
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE LOCATED NEAR THE MS/AL BORDER THIS MORNING WILL
SHIFT EAST OF THE CWFA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING A DEEPER
LAYER OF COOLER DRIER AIR TO ADVECT SOUTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL GULF
REGION TONIGHT AND AND EARLY FRI. THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO BETTER
MIXING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER THROUGH TONIGHT. TO THE NORTHWEST NEXT
SURGE OF MUCH COLDER AIR BEGINS TO PUSH DOWN FROM CANADA REACHING
THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES BY 12Z FRI. AS MAIN SHORT WAVE EXITS OFF
TO THE EAST LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT A FEW MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL
SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH LITTLE
AFFECT ON NIGHT TIME TEMPS. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH
TONIGHT WILL BE MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES VALUES ACROSS THE REGION
BY THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY CHILLY TEMPS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY FRI
MORNING. AS A RESULT WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE COOLER MET/MAV MOS
GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY CONTINUING WITH THIS TREND FOR LOWS
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY FRI MORNING DUE TO THE DEPTH OF COOLER AIR
ADVECTING SOUTHWARD. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
70S FOR MOST OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AND THE
MIDDLE 70S TO THE SOUTH. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL TO THE UPPER 30S TO
AROUND 40 TO THE NORTH AND EAST...NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR...AND
THE MIDDLE 40S FOR AREAS TO THE WEST INCLUDING THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
32/EE

DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT BETWEEN A DEEP UPPER TROUGH DIVING FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION TOWARD THE OH/TN VALLEY AND SOUTHEASTERN STATES
AND AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
STRETCHING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
WILL QUICKLY MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE PUSHING WELL OFFSHORE INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO FRIDAY NIGHT. LOW PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 0.4 TO 0.6
INCHES WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY...SO NO PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED WITH THIS NEXT FRONT. THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST
FRIDAY WILL BE A LITTLE TRICKY DEPENDENT ON FRONTAL TIMING. WE
CURRENTLY EXPECT READINGS TO RANGE FROM AROUND 70 TO THE LOWER 70S
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE CWFA TO THE MID 70S FARTHER SOUTH
AND EAST. A COLD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED. NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED NEAR THE COAST FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT SHOULD DECREASE
OVER INLAND AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO USE A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE FOR LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT...LOOKING FOR OVERNIGHT READINGS TO
RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 30S OVER INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. SOME
PATCHY LIGHT FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER A FEW INTERIOR LOCATIONS
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. /21

LONG TERM [SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD SATURDAY AND INTO THE ADJACENT
WESTERN ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WHILE RIDGING ALOFT
BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. SATURDAY TOWARD THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION SUNDAY. A DEEP DRY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN
INTACT ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA...KEEPING RAIN CHANCES NIL THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
STRETCH FROM THE VICINITY OF THE GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO SATURDAY...KEEPING
COOL TEMPERATURES IN PLACE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. 925 MB
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL PROJECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN 4-6 C ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY
STRUGGLE TO REACH 60 OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND A VERY DRY SURFACE AIRMASS WILL PROMOTE
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING SATURDAY NIGHT. WE ARE EXPECTING SOME OF
THE COLDEST READINGS SO FAR THIS AUTUMN SEASON BY EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. A FEW LOCATIONS OVER THE INTERIOR COULD EXPERIENCE THE
FIRST LIGHT FREEZE OF THE SEASON...WHILE PATCHY FROST WILL BE
POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE OVER MUCH OF OUR INTERIOR CWFA. WE EXPECT LOWS
SUNDAY MORNING TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 30S OVER MUCH OF THE
INTERIOR TO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THE
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL PUSH EASTWARD AND WILL EXTEND FROM THE OH/TN
VALLEY TO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE
FLOW SHOULD BECOME MORE NORTHEAST TO EAST ACROSS THE CWFA...AND
TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODIFY SLIGHTLY INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

LOOKING AHEAD INTO THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...MEDIUM RANGE
SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BUILDING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO MONDAY...WITH THE RIDGE
AXIS STRETCHING NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA AND INTO THE
SOUTHEAST STATES. THE RIDGE AXIS BECOMES ELONGATED FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO TO THE FL PENINSULA AND
WESTERN ATLANTIC TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
INCREASES FROM THE NORTHWEST GULF THROUGH THE MS/TN VALLEY REGION IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE VICINITY
OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND NORTHERN MEXICO. MOISTURE PULLED
NORTHEASTWARD IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT STILL LOOKS TO REMAIN WELL
TO THE WEST OF OUR FORECAST AREA TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THIS MOISTURE
MAY BEGIN TO ADVANCE EASTWARD ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT...POSSIBLY APPROACHING OUR DOORSTEP BY WEDNESDAY. WE WILL KEEP
POPS LOW LATE IN THE EXTENDED GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE AND MUCH
UNCERTAINTY. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO MODERATE
DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. /21

AVIATION...
30.12Z ISSUANCE...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 31.12Z. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE NORTH AT
7 TO 10 KNOTS TODAY DIMINISHING TO 5 KNOTS OR LESS LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY FRI MORNING. 32/EE

MARINE...A MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG NORTHERLY WIND FLOW
WILL PERSIST OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH MID MORNING TODAY THEN
GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN REBUILD
SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT AND EARLY FRI MORNING DUE TO COLD AIR DRAINAGE.
AS A RESULT SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION EARLY TODAY AND
POSSIBLY AGAIN EARLY FRI MORNING...MOSTLY OVER THE OPEN GULF WATERS
INCLUDING THE LOWER END OF MOBILE BAY AND THE MISSISSIPPI SOUND. BY
LATE FRI AND FRI NIGHT A MUCH STRONGER/DEEPER SURGE OF COLDER AIR
WILL ADVECT SOUTH OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GULF LEADING TO
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS FOR THE ENTIRE MARINE AREA FRI NIGHT THROUGH
MIDDAY SAT. GUSTS TO NEAR GALE FORCE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE MOSTLY
WELL OFFSHORE AND OVER THE LOWER END OF MOBILE BAY. SEAS UP TO 9
FEET MAINLY WELL OFFSHORE WILL BE LIKELY WITH THE SECOND COLD FRONT
LATE FRI NIGHT AND EARLY SAT. BY LATE SUN INTO MON STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH SHIFTS EAST TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD RESULTING
IN A MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY WIND FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS A RESULT SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. 32/EE

FIRE WEATHER...A COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WILL SPREAD ACROSS
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION TODAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
DROP TO NEAR OR JUST BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT DURATIONS SHOULD BE BRIEF AND OTHER CRITERIA DO
NOT LOOK TO MEET RED FLAG CONDITIONS. A REINFORCING SURGE OF COLDER
AND DRIER AIR ARRIVES THIS WEEKEND...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF NEAR
CRITICAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND...
ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHEN MINIMUM RH VALUES DROP INTO THE
MID 20 PERCENT RANGE. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR OTHER CRITERIA OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS TO DETERMINE IF FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES NEED
TO BE INCLUDED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION. /21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      74  45  74  39  58 /  00  00  00  00  00
PENSACOLA   76  48  73  43  59 /  00  00  00  00  00
DESTIN      75  51  71  44  59 /  00  00  00  00  00
EVERGREEN   72  40  74  36  58 /  00  00  00  00  00
WAYNESBORO  73  40  72  34  58 /  00  00  00  00  00
CAMDEN      71  40  72  34  58 /  00  00  00  00  00
CRESTVIEW   75  38  75  39  60 /  00  00  00  00  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


CRP/90








000
FXUS64 KMOB 300920
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
420 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SHORT TERM [TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT]...MID TO UPPER TROF AXIS WITH
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE LOCATED NEAR THE MS/AL BORDER THIS MORNING WILL
SHIFT EAST OF THE CWFA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING A DEEPER
LAYER OF COOLER DRIER AIR TO ADVECT SOUTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL GULF
REGION TONIGHT AND AND EARLY FRI. THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO BETTER
MIXING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER THROUGH TONIGHT. TO THE NORTHWEST NEXT
SURGE OF MUCH COLDER AIR BEGINS TO PUSH DOWN FROM CANADA REACHING
THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES BY 12Z FRI. AS MAIN SHORT WAVE EXITS OFF
TO THE EAST LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT A FEW MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL
SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH LITTLE
AFFECT ON NIGHT TIME TEMPS. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH
TONIGHT WILL BE MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES VALUES ACROSS THE REGION
BY THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY CHILLY TEMPS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY FRI
MORNING. AS A RESULT WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE COOLER MET/MAV MOS
GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY CONTINUING WITH THIS TREND FOR LOWS
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY FRI MORNING DUE TO THE DEPTH OF COOLER AIR
ADVECTING SOUTHWARD. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
70S FOR MOST OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AND THE
MIDDLE 70S TO THE SOUTH. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL TO THE UPPER 30S TO
AROUND 40 TO THE NORTH AND EAST...NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR...AND
THE MIDDLE 40S FOR AREAS TO THE WEST INCLUDING THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
32/EE

DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT BETWEEN A DEEP UPPER TROUGH DIVING FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION TOWARD THE OH/TN VALLEY AND SOUTHEASTERN STATES
AND AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
STRETCHING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
WILL QUICKLY MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE PUSHING WELL OFFSHORE INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO FRIDAY NIGHT. LOW PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 0.4 TO 0.6
INCHES WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY...SO NO PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED WITH THIS NEXT FRONT. THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST
FRIDAY WILL BE A LITTLE TRICKY DEPENDENT ON FRONTAL TIMING. WE
CURRENTLY EXPECT READINGS TO RANGE FROM AROUND 70 TO THE LOWER 70S
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE CWFA TO THE MID 70S FARTHER SOUTH
AND EAST. A COLD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED. NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED NEAR THE COAST FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT SHOULD DECREASE
OVER INLAND AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO USE A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE FOR LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT...LOOKING FOR OVERNIGHT READINGS TO
RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 30S OVER INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. SOME
PATCHY LIGHT FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER A FEW INTERIOR LOCATIONS
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. /21

.LONG TERM [SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD SATURDAY AND INTO THE ADJACENT
WESTERN ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WHILE RIDGING ALOFT
BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. SATURDAY TOWARD THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION SUNDAY. A DEEP DRY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN
INTACT ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA...KEEPING RAIN CHANCES NIL THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
STRETCH FROM THE VICINITY OF THE GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO SATURDAY...KEEPING
COOL TEMPERATURES IN PLACE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. 925 MB
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL PROJECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN 4-6 C ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY
STRUGGLE TO REACH 60 OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND A VERY DRY SURFACE AIRMASS WILL PROMOTE
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING SATURDAY NIGHT. WE ARE EXPECTING SOME OF
THE COLDEST READINGS SO FAR THIS AUTUMN SEASON BY EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. A FEW LOCATIONS OVER THE INTERIOR COULD EXPERIENCE THE
FIRST LIGHT FREEZE OF THE SEASON...WHILE PATCHY FROST WILL BE
POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE OVER MUCH OF OUR INTERIOR CWFA. WE EXPECT LOWS
SUNDAY MORNING TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 30S OVER MUCH OF THE
INTERIOR TO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THE
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL PUSH EASTWARD AND WILL EXTEND FROM THE OH/TN
VALLEY TO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE
FLOW SHOULD BECOME MORE NORTHEAST TO EAST ACROSS THE CWFA...AND
TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODIFY SLIGHTLY INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

LOOKING AHEAD INTO THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...MEDIUM RANGE
SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BUILDING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO MONDAY...WITH THE RIDGE
AXIS STRETCHING NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA AND INTO THE
SOUTHEAST STATES. THE RIDGE AXIS BECOMES ELONGATED FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO TO THE FL PENINSULA AND
WESTERN ATLANTIC TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
INCREASES FROM THE NORTHWEST GULF THROUGH THE MS/TN VALLEY REGION IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE VICINITY
OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND NORTHERN MEXICO. MOISTURE PULLED
NORTHEASTWARD IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT STILL LOOKS TO REMAIN WELL
TO THE WEST OF OUR FORECAST AREA TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THIS MOISTURE
MAY BEGIN TO ADVANCE EASTWARD ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT...POSSIBLY APPROACHING OUR DOORSTEP BY WEDNESDAY. WE WILL KEEP
POPS LOW LATE IN THE EXTENDED GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE AND MUCH
UNCERTAINTY. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO MODERATE
DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. /21

&&

.AVIATION...
30.12Z ISSUANCE...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 31.12Z. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE NORTH AT
7 TO 10 KNOTS TODAY DIMINISHING TO 5 KNOTS OR LESS LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY FRI MORNING. 32/EE

&&

.MARINE...A MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG NORTHERLY WIND FLOW
WILL PERSIST OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH MID MORNING TODAY THEN
GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN REBUILD
SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT AND EARLY FRI MORNING DUE TO COLD AIR DRAINAGE.
AS A RESULT SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION EARLY TODAY AND
POSSIBLY AGAIN EARLY FRI MORNING...MOSTLY OVER THE OPEN GULF WATERS
INCLUDING THE LOWER END OF MOBILE BAY AND THE MISSISSIPPI SOUND. BY
LATE FRI AND FRI NIGHT A MUCH STRONGER/DEEPER SURGE OF COLDER AIR
WILL ADVECT SOUTH OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GULF LEADING TO
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS FOR THE ENTIRE MARINE AREA FRI NIGHT THROUGH
MIDDAY SAT. GUSTS TO NEAR GALE FORCE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE MOSTLY
WELL OFFSHORE AND OVER THE LOWER END OF MOBILE BAY. SEAS UP TO 9
FEET MAINLY WELL OFFSHORE WILL BE LIKELY WITH THE SECOND COLD FRONT
LATE FRI NIGHT AND EARLY SAT. BY LATE SUN INTO MON STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH SHIFTS EAST TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD RESULTING
IN A MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY WIND FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS A RESULT SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. 32/EE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WILL SPREAD ACROSS
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION TODAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
DROP TO NEAR OR JUST BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT DURATIONS SHOULD BE BRIEF AND OTHER CRITERIA DO
NOT LOOK TO MEET RED FLAG CONDITIONS. A REINFORCING SURGE OF COLDER
AND DRIER AIR ARRIVES THIS WEEKEND...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF NEAR
CRITICAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND...
ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHEN MINIMUM RH VALUES DROP INTO THE
MID 20 PERCENT RANGE. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR OTHER CRITERIA OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS TO DETERMINE IF FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES NEED
TO BE INCLUDED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION. /21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      74  45  74  39  58 /  00  00  00  00  00
PENSACOLA   76  48  73  43  59 /  00  00  00  00  00
DESTIN      75  51  71  44  59 /  00  00  00  00  00
EVERGREEN   72  40  74  36  58 /  00  00  00  00  00
WAYNESBORO  73  40  72  34  58 /  00  00  00  00  00
CAMDEN      71  40  72  34  58 /  00  00  00  00  00
CRESTVIEW   75  38  75  39  60 /  00  00  00  00  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

32/21







000
FXUS64 KMOB 300456
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1156 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.AVIATION...
30.06Z ISSUANCE...
THE COLD FRONT HAS PASSED THROUGH THE REGION. CLEARING SKIES AND
MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE AFTER MIDNIGHT
DECREASING TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS AROUND SUNRISE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 77/BD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 722 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014/

AVIATION UPDATE...
COLD FRONT HAS PASSED THROUGH MUCH OF THE REGION. A GUST FRONT AHEAD
OF IT IS LOCATED ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10. BRIEFLY STRONG
GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH IT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO LAST MORE THAN AN
HOUR OR SO. SOME ISOLATED POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS ARE INDICATED NEAR
LUCEDALE MISSISSIPPI AND BAY MINETTE ALABAMA. OTHERWISE...CLEARING
SKIES AND MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL FOLLOW LATER
THIS EVENING BECOMING 5 TO 10 KNOTS LATER TONIGHT. CONDITIONS VFR
NORTH OF A LINE FROM LEAKESVILLE MISSISSIPPI TO EVERGREEN ALABAMA
CURRENTLY...AND WILL FOLLOW THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH THE REGION BY
SUNRISE. 77/BD

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND THURSDAY)...A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE
STEADY PROGRESS SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST. THE FRONT WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE THIS EVENING WITH ANY REMAINING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALSO MOVING OFFSHORE. A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL FOLLOW IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES DROP TO NEARLY ONE THIRD OF AN INCH ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS WILL ALSO BE 5 TO 8 DEGREES COOLER
THAN TODAY...AROUND 70 ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS TO MID 70S ALONG THE
COAST. 13/JC

(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...ANOTHER REINFORCING COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY...BUT THE DRY AIRMASS IN
THE WAKE OF THE PREVIOUS FRONT WILL NOT ALLOW FOR ANY PCPN WITH THIS
FROPA...AND IN FACT VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER EITHER.
THIS FRONT WILL BE BEYOND THE FORECAST AREA OUT OVER THE GULF BY LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH STRONG AND MUCH COOLER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
OVER THE REGION AND A NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING. LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE LOWER 40S INLAND AND MID TO UPPER 40S
COASTAL...AND EVEN COOLER FRIDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE REINFORCING FRONT
WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION EXCEPT
COASTAL AREAS WHERE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S SHOULD BE EXPECTED.
DAYTIME HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE MID 70S AREA WIDE. 12/DS

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...NO CHANGES TO CURRENT LONG
TERM PERIOD. A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
OUR AREA WELL SATURDAY...THEN WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS RIDGING
ALOFT AMPLIFIES NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. A REINFORCING
SURGE OF COLDER AIR WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AND CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION INTO SATURDAY AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE
DIVES FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE OH/TN VALLEY REGION. IT STILL
APPEARS THAT HIGHS SATURDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 60 OVER MUCH OF
THE REGION. CLEAR SKIES... LIGHTER WINDS AND A DRY AIRMASS WILL FAVOR
ONE OF THE COLDEST NIGHTS OF THE AUTUMN SEASON SATURDAY NIGHT. WE
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S OVER INTERIOR
AREAS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...WITH LOWER TO MID
40S NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. PATCHY LIGHT FROST COULD IMPACT SOME
LOCATIONS... PARTICULARLY OVER THE INTERIOR SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL PUSH EASTWARD AND EXTEND FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO NORTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION
MONDAY. THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM LOOKS TO DEEPEN IN THE
VICINITY OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE AND
LIFT AHEAD OF THIS NEXT FEATURE CURRENTLY LOOKS TO MOSTLY REMAIN TO
THE WEST OF OUR AREA DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK...
SO POPS WILL BE KEPT LOW LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. SURFACE
RIDGING SHOULD BECOME CENTERED NEAR THE VICINITY OF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD AND WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH EAST
TO SOUTHEAST FLOW PREVALENT ACROSS OUR AREA BOTH DAYS. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD SUBSEQUENTLY MODIFY INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

12/DS

AVIATION...
30.00Z ISSUANCE...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 13/JC

MARINE...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MARINE AREA TONIGHT WITH
A MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL DECREASE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY
BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE MARINE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
BRINGING A STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW TO THE MARINE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH A LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING. 13/JC

FIRE WEATHER...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TODAY AND
THIS EVENING...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. RAIN COVERAGE DECREASES LATER THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT PASSES
AND MOVES OFFSHORE. A COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WILL SETTLE INTO THE
REGION TONIGHT AND THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO NEAR CRITICAL LEVELS THURSDAY...BUT OTHER
CRITERIA FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE MET. ANOTHER SURGE OF COLDER
AND DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND. NO WIDESPREAD AREAS OF FOG
EXPECTED. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      50  74  48  75  39 /  20  00  00  00  00
PENSACOLA   56  75  49  76  39 /  30  00  00  00  00
DESTIN      61  75  51  77  41 /  30  00  00  00  00
EVERGREEN   47  72  41  74  34 /  10  00  00  00  00
WAYNESBORO  44  71  43  74  35 /  05  00  00  00  00
CAMDEN      44  71  41  73  33 /  05  00  00  00  00
CRESTVIEW   51  75  38  76  38 /  30  00  00  00  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KMOB 300456
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1156 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.AVIATION...
30.06Z ISSUANCE...
THE COLD FRONT HAS PASSED THROUGH THE REGION. CLEARING SKIES AND
MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE AFTER MIDNIGHT
DECREASING TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS AROUND SUNRISE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 77/BD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 722 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014/

AVIATION UPDATE...
COLD FRONT HAS PASSED THROUGH MUCH OF THE REGION. A GUST FRONT AHEAD
OF IT IS LOCATED ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10. BRIEFLY STRONG
GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH IT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO LAST MORE THAN AN
HOUR OR SO. SOME ISOLATED POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS ARE INDICATED NEAR
LUCEDALE MISSISSIPPI AND BAY MINETTE ALABAMA. OTHERWISE...CLEARING
SKIES AND MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL FOLLOW LATER
THIS EVENING BECOMING 5 TO 10 KNOTS LATER TONIGHT. CONDITIONS VFR
NORTH OF A LINE FROM LEAKESVILLE MISSISSIPPI TO EVERGREEN ALABAMA
CURRENTLY...AND WILL FOLLOW THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH THE REGION BY
SUNRISE. 77/BD

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND THURSDAY)...A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE
STEADY PROGRESS SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST. THE FRONT WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE THIS EVENING WITH ANY REMAINING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALSO MOVING OFFSHORE. A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL FOLLOW IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES DROP TO NEARLY ONE THIRD OF AN INCH ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS WILL ALSO BE 5 TO 8 DEGREES COOLER
THAN TODAY...AROUND 70 ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS TO MID 70S ALONG THE
COAST. 13/JC

(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...ANOTHER REINFORCING COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY...BUT THE DRY AIRMASS IN
THE WAKE OF THE PREVIOUS FRONT WILL NOT ALLOW FOR ANY PCPN WITH THIS
FROPA...AND IN FACT VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER EITHER.
THIS FRONT WILL BE BEYOND THE FORECAST AREA OUT OVER THE GULF BY LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH STRONG AND MUCH COOLER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
OVER THE REGION AND A NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING. LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE LOWER 40S INLAND AND MID TO UPPER 40S
COASTAL...AND EVEN COOLER FRIDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE REINFORCING FRONT
WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION EXCEPT
COASTAL AREAS WHERE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S SHOULD BE EXPECTED.
DAYTIME HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE MID 70S AREA WIDE. 12/DS

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...NO CHANGES TO CURRENT LONG
TERM PERIOD. A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
OUR AREA WELL SATURDAY...THEN WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS RIDGING
ALOFT AMPLIFIES NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. A REINFORCING
SURGE OF COLDER AIR WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AND CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION INTO SATURDAY AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE
DIVES FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE OH/TN VALLEY REGION. IT STILL
APPEARS THAT HIGHS SATURDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 60 OVER MUCH OF
THE REGION. CLEAR SKIES... LIGHTER WINDS AND A DRY AIRMASS WILL FAVOR
ONE OF THE COLDEST NIGHTS OF THE AUTUMN SEASON SATURDAY NIGHT. WE
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S OVER INTERIOR
AREAS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...WITH LOWER TO MID
40S NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. PATCHY LIGHT FROST COULD IMPACT SOME
LOCATIONS... PARTICULARLY OVER THE INTERIOR SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL PUSH EASTWARD AND EXTEND FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO NORTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION
MONDAY. THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM LOOKS TO DEEPEN IN THE
VICINITY OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE AND
LIFT AHEAD OF THIS NEXT FEATURE CURRENTLY LOOKS TO MOSTLY REMAIN TO
THE WEST OF OUR AREA DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK...
SO POPS WILL BE KEPT LOW LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. SURFACE
RIDGING SHOULD BECOME CENTERED NEAR THE VICINITY OF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD AND WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH EAST
TO SOUTHEAST FLOW PREVALENT ACROSS OUR AREA BOTH DAYS. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD SUBSEQUENTLY MODIFY INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

12/DS

AVIATION...
30.00Z ISSUANCE...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 13/JC

MARINE...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MARINE AREA TONIGHT WITH
A MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL DECREASE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY
BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE MARINE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
BRINGING A STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW TO THE MARINE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH A LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING. 13/JC

FIRE WEATHER...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TODAY AND
THIS EVENING...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. RAIN COVERAGE DECREASES LATER THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT PASSES
AND MOVES OFFSHORE. A COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WILL SETTLE INTO THE
REGION TONIGHT AND THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO NEAR CRITICAL LEVELS THURSDAY...BUT OTHER
CRITERIA FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE MET. ANOTHER SURGE OF COLDER
AND DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND. NO WIDESPREAD AREAS OF FOG
EXPECTED. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      50  74  48  75  39 /  20  00  00  00  00
PENSACOLA   56  75  49  76  39 /  30  00  00  00  00
DESTIN      61  75  51  77  41 /  30  00  00  00  00
EVERGREEN   47  72  41  74  34 /  10  00  00  00  00
WAYNESBORO  44  71  43  74  35 /  05  00  00  00  00
CAMDEN      44  71  41  73  33 /  05  00  00  00  00
CRESTVIEW   51  75  38  76  38 /  30  00  00  00  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KMOB 300022
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
722 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.AVIATION...COLD FRONT HAS PASSED THROUGH MUCH OF THE REGION. A GUST
FRONT AHEAD OF IT IS LOCATED ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10.
BRIEFLY STRONG GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH IT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
LAST MORE THAN AN HOUR OR SO. SOME ISOLATED POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS ARE
INDICATED NEAR LUCEDALE MISSISSIPPI AND BAY MINETTE ALABAMA.
OTHERWISE...CLEARING SKIES AND MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15
KNOTS WILL FOLLOW LATER THIS EVENING BECOMING 5 TO 10 KNOTS LATER
TONIGHT. CONDITIONS VFR NORTH OF A LINE FROM LEAKESVILLE MISSISSIPPI
TO EVERGREEN ALABAMA CURRENTLY...AND WILL FOLLOW THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
THROUGH THE REGION BY SUNRISE. 77/BD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND THURSDAY)...A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE
STEADY PROGRESS SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST. THE FRONT WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE THIS EVENING WITH ANY REMAINING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALSO MOVING OFFSHORE. A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL FOLLOW IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES DROP TO NEARLY ONE THIRD OF AN INCH ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS WILL ALSO BE 5 TO 8 DEGREES COOLER
THAN TODAY...AROUND 70 ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS TO MID 70S ALONG THE
COAST. 13/JC

(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...ANOTHER REINFORCING COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY...BUT THE DRY AIRMASS IN
THE WAKE OF THE PREVIOUS FRONT WILL NOT ALLOW FOR ANY PCPN WITH THIS
FROPA...AND IN FACT VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER EITHER.
THIS FRONT WILL BE BEYOND THE FORECAST AREA OUT OVER THE GULF BY LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH STRONG AND MUCH COOLER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
OVER THE REGION AND A NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING. LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE LOWER 40S INLAND AND MID TO UPPER 40S
COASTAL...AND EVEN COOLER FRIDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE REINFORCING FRONT
WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION EXCEPT
COASTAL AREAS WHERE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S SHOULD BE EXPECTED.
DAYTIME HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE MID 70S AREA WIDE. 12/DS

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...NO CHANGES TO CURRENT LONG
TERM PERIOD. A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
OUR AREA WELL SATURDAY...THEN WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS RIDGING
ALOFT AMPLIFIES NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. A REINFORCING
SURGE OF COLDER AIR WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AND CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION INTO SATURDAY AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE
DIVES FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE OH/TN VALLEY REGION. IT STILL
APPEARS THAT HIGHS SATURDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 60 OVER MUCH OF
THE REGION. CLEAR SKIES... LIGHTER WINDS AND A DRY AIRMASS WILL FAVOR
ONE OF THE COLDEST NIGHTS OF THE AUTUMN SEASON SATURDAY NIGHT. WE
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S OVER INTERIOR
AREAS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...WITH LOWER TO MID
40S NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. PATCHY LIGHT FROST COULD IMPACT SOME
LOCATIONS... PARTICULARLY OVER THE INTERIOR SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL PUSH EASTWARD AND EXTEND FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO NORTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION
MONDAY. THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM LOOKS TO DEEPEN IN THE
VICINITY OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE AND
LIFT AHEAD OF THIS NEXT FEATURE CURRENTLY LOOKS TO MOSTLY REMAIN TO
THE WEST OF OUR AREA DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK...
SO POPS WILL BE KEPT LOW LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. SURFACE
RIDGING SHOULD BECOME CENTERED NEAR THE VICINITY OF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD AND WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH EAST
TO SOUTHEAST FLOW PREVALENT ACROSS OUR AREA BOTH DAYS. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD SUBSEQUENTLY MODIFY INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

12/DS

AVIATION...
30.00Z ISSUANCE...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 13/JC

MARINE...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MARINE AREA TONIGHT WITH
A MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL DECREASE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY
BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE MARINE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
BRINGING A STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW TO THE MARINE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH A LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING. 13/JC

FIRE WEATHER...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TODAY AND
THIS EVENING...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. RAIN COVERAGE DECREASES LATER THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT PASSES
AND MOVES OFFSHORE. A COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WILL SETTLE INTO THE
REGION TONIGHT AND THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO NEAR CRITICAL LEVELS THURSDAY...BUT OTHER
CRITERIA FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE MET. ANOTHER SURGE OF COLDER
AND DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND. NO WIDESPREAD AREAS OF FOG
EXPECTED. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      50  74  48  75  39 /  20  00  00  00  00
PENSACOLA   56  75  49  76  39 /  30  00  00  00  00
DESTIN      61  75  51  77  41 /  30  00  00  00  00
EVERGREEN   47  72  41  74  34 /  10  00  00  00  00
WAYNESBORO  44  71  43  74  35 /  05  00  00  00  00
CAMDEN      44  71  41  73  33 /  05  00  00  00  00
CRESTVIEW   51  75  38  76  38 /  30  00  00  00  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KMOB 292101
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
401 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND THURSDAY)...A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE
STEADY PROGRESS SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST. THE FRONT WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE THIS EVENING WITH ANY REMAINING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALSO MOVING OFFSHORE. A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL FOLLOW IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES DROP TO NEARLY ONE THIRD OF AN INCH ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS WILL ALSO BE 5 TO 8 DEGREES COOLER
THAN TODAY...AROUND 70 ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS TO MID 70S ALONG THE
COAST. 13/JC

(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...ANOTHER REINFORCING COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY...BUT THE DRY AIRMASS IN
THE WAKE OF THE PREVIOUS FRONT WILL NOT ALLOW FOR ANY PCPN WITH THIS
FROPA...AND IN FACT VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER EITHER.
THIS FRONT WILL BE BEYOND THE FORECAST AREA OUT OVER THE GULF BY LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH STRONG AND MUCH COOLER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
OVER THE REGION AND A NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING. LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE LOWER 40S INLAND AND MID TO UPPER 40S
COASTAL...AND EVEN COOLER FRIDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE REINFORCING FRONT
WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION EXCEPT
COASTAL AREAS WHERE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S SHOULD BE EXPECTED.
DAYTIME HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE MID 70S AREA WIDE. 12/DS

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...NO CHANGES TO CURRENT LONG
TERM PERIOD. A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
OUR AREA WELL SATURDAY...THEN WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS RIDGING
ALOFT AMPLIFIES NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. A REINFORCING
SURGE OF COLDER AIR WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AND CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION INTO SATURDAY AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE
DIVES FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE OH/TN VALLEY REGION. IT STILL
APPEARS THAT HIGHS SATURDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 60 OVER MUCH OF
THE REGION. CLEAR SKIES... LIGHTER WINDS AND A DRY AIRMASS WILL FAVOR
ONE OF THE COLDEST NIGHTS OF THE AUTUMN SEASON SATURDAY NIGHT. WE
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S OVER INTERIOR
AREAS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...WITH LOWER TO MID
40S NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. PATCHY LIGHT FROST COULD IMPACT SOME
LOCATIONS... PARTICULARLY OVER THE INTERIOR SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL PUSH EASTWARD AND EXTEND FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO NORTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION
MONDAY. THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM LOOKS TO DEEPEN IN THE
VICINITY OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE AND
LIFT AHEAD OF THIS NEXT FEATURE CURRENTLY LOOKS TO MOSTLY REMAIN TO
THE WEST OF OUR AREA DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK...
SO POPS WILL BE KEPT LOW LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. SURFACE
RIDGING SHOULD BECOME CENTERED NEAR THE VICINITY OF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD AND WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH EAST
TO SOUTHEAST FLOW PREVALENT ACROSS OUR AREA BOTH DAYS. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD SUBSEQUENTLY MODIFY INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

12/DS

&&

.AVIATION...
30.00Z ISSUANCE...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 13/JC

&&

.MARINE...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MARINE AREA TONIGHT WITH
A MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL DECREASE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY
BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE MARINE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
BRINGING A STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW TO THE MARINE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH A LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING. 13/JC

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TODAY AND
THIS EVENING...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. RAIN COVERAGE DECREASES LATER THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT PASSES
AND MOVES OFFSHORE. A COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WILL SETTLE INTO THE
REGION TONIGHT AND THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO NEAR CRITICAL LEVELS THURSDAY...BUT OTHER
CRITERIA FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE MET. ANOTHER SURGE OF COLDER
AND DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND. NO WIDESPREAD AREAS OF FOG
EXPECTED. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      50  74  48  75  39 /  20  00  00  00  00
PENSACOLA   56  75  49  76  39 /  30  00  00  00  00
DESTIN      61  75  51  77  41 /  30  00  00  00  00
EVERGREEN   47  72  41  74  34 /  10  00  00  00  00
WAYNESBORO  44  71  43  74  35 /  05  00  00  00  00
CAMDEN      44  71  41  73  33 /  05  00  00  00  00
CRESTVIEW   51  75  38  76  38 /  30  00  00  00  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMOB 291746 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1246 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.AVIATION...
18Z ISSUANCE
VCSH WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA WITH MVFR/VFR CEILINGS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. /13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1149 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014/

UPDATE...THE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO LOWER RAIN CHANCES FOR THE
REMAINDER OF TODAY BASED ON CURRENT RADAR IMAGES AND MESOSCALE MODEL
GUIDANCE. THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY ENTERING NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REST OF
THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WERE ALSO ADJUSTED DOWN IN NORTHWESTERN ZONES
WHERE TEMPS WILL LIKELY ONLY RISE A COUPLE MORE DEGREES BEFORE
DROPPING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. UPDATES HAVE
ALREADY BEEN SENT. /13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 438 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014/

SHORT TERM [TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT]...BROAD MID TO UPPER TROF
OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST AND DIG
THROUGH TONIGHT ALLOWING A MODERATE COLD FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PARTS OF AL AND MS THIS MORNING TO SHIFT SOUTH TO THE
NORTHERN GULF BY EARLY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT THUS LEADING TO
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWFA LATER THIS
MORNING SHIFTING SOUTH AND EAST OVER REMAINING PARTS OF THE CWFA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAIN
LOOKS TO BE OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA LATE THIS
MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHIFTING SOUTHEAST AND DAMPENING OUT
SOMEWHAT BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AS THE BEST FORCING
OR LIFT BEGINS SHEAR AND LIFT OFF TO THE NE. LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS
DEPICT LIMITED INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT COMBINED WITH PWATS
CLIMBING TO AROUND 1.45 INCHES FOR MOST AREAS SUGGESTING MOST OF THE
CONVECTION SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OCCURRING MOSTLY ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT TRACKS SOUTHWARD. AS A RESULT HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY FOR TODAY LOWERING RAIN CHANCES SOMEWHAT
FOR MOST OF THE LOWER HALF OF THE CWFA THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE OR STRONG THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALSO REMAINS
LOW DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF LIMITED INSTABILITY AND FORCING ALOFT.
OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THIS EVENING LEADING
ME TO LEAN TOWARDS THE COOLER MOS GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON THEN THE COOLER GUIDANCE OVERNIGHT DUE TO BETTER CLEARING
BY EARLY THU MORNING. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER
70S FOR NORTHERN SECTIONS AND THE LOWER 80S FURTHER SOUTH TO THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. TONIGHTS LOWS WILL FALL TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S OVER
MOST OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWFA AND THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S
FURTHER SOUTH TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST. 32/EE

THE NEXT BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH EASTWARD TOWARD THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION THURSDAY...THEN ACROSS THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHEASTERN U.S. BY THURSDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD FROM THE OH/TN VALLEY
AND SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH WELL SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF BY THURSDAY
NIGHT. A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WILL FILTER ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH PASSAGE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AVERAGING BETWEEN 0.3 AND 0.6
INCHES. SUNNY SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL THURSDAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
ON TAP FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. LOWER SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL ADVECT
SOUTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. WE EXPECT COOLER
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH READINGS RANGING FROM THE
LOWER 70S INLAND TO THE MID 70S NEAR THE COAST. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL FALL TO AROUND 40 TO THE LOWER 40S INLAND AND IN THE MID 40S TO
AROUND 50 NEAR THE COAST. /21

LONG TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
DEEPEN AS IT MOVES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY MORNING TO THE
EASTERN SEABOARD BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN
ALOFT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS OUR AREA WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THIS
SYSTEM FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THEN WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS
RIDGING ALOFT AMPLIFIES NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. A
REINFORCING SURGE OF COLDER AIR WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE DIVES FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE
OH/TN VALLEY REGION. THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS SHOW 925 MB
TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO BETWEEN 0-2 C ACROSS OUR AREA BY 12Z
SATURDAY AND ONLY REBOUNDING TO BETWEEN 5-7 C BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AS THE STRONG SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. WE HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES SEVERAL
DEGREES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. IT APPEARS THAT HIGHS SATURDAY
WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 60 OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. CLEAR SKIES...
LIGHTER WINDS AND A DRY AIRMASS WILL FAVOR ONE OF THE COLDEST NIGHTS
OF THE AUTUMN SEASON SATURDAY NIGHT. WE EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO FALL
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S OVER INTERIOR AREAS LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...WITH LOWER TO MID 40S NEAR THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. PATCHY LIGHT FROST COULD IMPACT SOME LOCATIONS...
PARTICULARLY OVER THE INTERIOR SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL PUSH EASTWARD AND EXTEND FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO NORTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION
MONDAY. THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM LOOKS TO DEEPEN IN THE
VICINITY OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE AND
LIFT AHEAD OF THIS NEXT FEATURE CURRENTLY LOOKS TO MOSTLY REMAIN TO
THE WEST OF OUR AREA DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK...
SO POPS WILL BE KEPT LOW LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. SURFACE
RIDGING SHOULD BECOME CENTERED NEAR THE VICINITY OF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD AND WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH EAST
TO SOUTHEAST FLOW PREVALENT ACROSS OUR AREA BOTH DAYS. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD SUBSEQUENTLY MODIFY INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. /21

MARINE...A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL BECOME MOSTLY NORTH BY
EARLY THIS EVENING IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHWARD
TOWARDS THE COAST. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BUILD TO AROUND 14 TO 17
KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THU MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
DIMINISHING SLIGHTLY THU AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THU NIGHT THEN
REBUILDING LATE THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI DUE TO COLD AIR DRAINAGE. BY
LATE FRI INTO SAT MORNING A STRONGER REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN GULF POSSIBLY
RESULTING IN SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE MARINE AREA BY
EARLY SAT MORNING POSSIBLY CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY SUN MORNING. SEAS
UP TO 7 FEET WELL OFFSHORE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE BETTER
OFFSHORE FLOW BEGINNING BY EARLY SAT MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE WEAKEN COLD
FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. A MODERATE TO STRONG
EASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND SE STATES. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      54  73  45  74  40 /  20  00  00  00  00
PENSACOLA   59  73  49  73  44 /  50  05  00  00  00
DESTIN      60  73  52  72  45 /  50  10  00  00  00
EVERGREEN   49  72  41  73  37 /  20  00  00  00  00
WAYNESBORO  46  72  42  72  37 /  10  00  00  00  00
CAMDEN      47  71  41  71  36 /  10  00  00  00  00
CRESTVIEW   54  74  40  75  39 /  50  05  00  00  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KMOB 291649 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1149 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.UPDATE...THE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO LOWER RAIN CHANCES FOR THE
REMAINDER OF TODAY BASED ON CURRENT RADAR IMAGES AND MESOSCALE MODEL
GUIDANCE. THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY ENTERING NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REST OF
THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WERE ALSO ADJUSTED DOWN IN NORTHWESTERN ZONES
WHERE TEMPS WILL LIKELY ONLY RISE A COUPLE MORE DEGREES BEFORE
DROPPING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. UPDATES HAVE
ALREADY BEEN SENT. /13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 438 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014/

SHORT TERM [TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT]...BROAD MID TO UPPER TROF
OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST AND DIG
THROUGH TONIGHT ALLOWING A MODERATE COLD FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PARTS OF AL AND MS THIS MORNING TO SHIFT SOUTH TO THE
NORTHERN GULF BY EARLY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT THUS LEADING TO
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWFA LATER THIS
MORNING SHIFTING SOUTH AND EAST OVER REMAINING PARTS OF THE CWFA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAIN
LOOKS TO BE OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA LATE THIS
MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHIFTING SOUTHEAST AND DAMPENING OUT
SOMEWHAT BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AS THE BEST FORCING
OR LIFT BEGINS SHEAR AND LIFT OFF TO THE NE. LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS
DEPICT LIMITED INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT COMBINED WITH PWATS
CLIMBING TO AROUND 1.45 INCHES FOR MOST AREAS SUGGESTING MOST OF THE
CONVECTION SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OCCURRING MOSTLY ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT TRACKS SOUTHWARD. AS A RESULT HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY FOR TODAY LOWERING RAIN CHANCES SOMEWHAT
FOR MOST OF THE LOWER HALF OF THE CWFA THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE OR STRONG THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALSO REMAINS
LOW DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF LIMITED INSTABILITY AND FORCING ALOFT.
OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THIS EVENING LEADING
ME TO LEAN TOWARDS THE COOLER MOS GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON THEN THE COOLER GUIDANCE OVERNIGHT DUE TO BETTER CLEARING
BY EARLY THU MORNING. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER
70S FOR NORTHERN SECTIONS AND THE LOWER 80S FURTHER SOUTH TO THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. TONIGHTS LOWS WILL FALL TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S OVER
MOST OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWFA AND THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S
FURTHER SOUTH TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST. 32/EE

THE NEXT BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH EASTWARD TOWARD THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION THURSDAY...THEN ACROSS THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHEASTERN U.S. BY THURSDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD FROM THE OH/TN VALLEY
AND SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH WELL SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF BY THURSDAY
NIGHT. A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WILL FILTER ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH PASSAGE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AVERAGING BETWEEN 0.3 AND 0.6
INCHES. SUNNY SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL THURSDAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
ON TAP FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. LOWER SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL ADVECT
SOUTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. WE EXPECT COOLER
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH READINGS RANGING FROM THE
LOWER 70S INLAND TO THE MID 70S NEAR THE COAST. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL FALL TO AROUND 40 TO THE LOWER 40S INLAND AND IN THE MID 40S TO
AROUND 50 NEAR THE COAST. /21

LONG TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
DEEPEN AS IT MOVES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY MORNING TO THE
EASTERN SEABOARD BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN
ALOFT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS OUR AREA WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THIS
SYSTEM FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THEN WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS
RIDGING ALOFT AMPLIFIES NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. A
REINFORCING SURGE OF COLDER AIR WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE DIVES FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE
OH/TN VALLEY REGION. THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS SHOW 925 MB
TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO BETWEEN 0-2 C ACROSS OUR AREA BY 12Z
SATURDAY AND ONLY REBOUNDING TO BETWEEN 5-7 C BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AS THE STRONG SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. WE HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES SEVERAL
DEGREES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. IT APPEARS THAT HIGHS SATURDAY
WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 60 OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. CLEAR SKIES...
LIGHTER WINDS AND A DRY AIRMASS WILL FAVOR ONE OF THE COLDEST NIGHTS
OF THE AUTUMN SEASON SATURDAY NIGHT. WE EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO FALL
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S OVER INTERIOR AREAS LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...WITH LOWER TO MID 40S NEAR THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. PATCHY LIGHT FROST COULD IMPACT SOME LOCATIONS...
PARTICULARLY OVER THE INTERIOR SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL PUSH EASTWARD AND EXTEND FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO NORTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION
MONDAY. THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM LOOKS TO DEEPEN IN THE
VICINITY OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE AND
LIFT AHEAD OF THIS NEXT FEATURE CURRENTLY LOOKS TO MOSTLY REMAIN TO
THE WEST OF OUR AREA DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK...
SO POPS WILL BE KEPT LOW LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. SURFACE
RIDGING SHOULD BECOME CENTERED NEAR THE VICINITY OF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD AND WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH EAST
TO SOUTHEAST FLOW PREVALENT ACROSS OUR AREA BOTH DAYS. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD SUBSEQUENTLY MODIFY INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. /21

AVIATION...
29.12Z ISSUANCE...VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT 30.12Z WITH
POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS IN AND AROUND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SOUTHWARD ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
MOVING ACROSS REGION LATER TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE
MOSTLY SOUTH AT 3 TO 7 KNOTS THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON SHIFTING
NORTH AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING. 32/EE

MARINE...A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL BECOME MOSTLY NORTH BY
EARLY THIS EVENING IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHWARD
TOWARDS THE COAST. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BUILD TO AROUND 14 TO 17
KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THU MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
DIMINISHING SLIGHTLY THU AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THU NIGHT THEN
REBUILDING LATE THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI DUE TO COLD AIR DRAINAGE.
BY LATE FRI INTO SAT MORNING A STRONGER REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN GULF POSSIBLY
RESULTING IN SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE MARINE AREA BY
EARLY SAT MORNING POSSIBLY CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY SUN MORNING.
SEAS UP TO 7 FEET WELL OFFSHORE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
BETTER OFFSHORE FLOW BEGINNING BY EARLY SAT MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE WEAKEN
COLD FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. A MODERATE TO STRONG
EASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND SE STATES. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      81  54  73  45  74 /  30  20  00  00  00
PENSACOLA   81  59  73  49  73 /  30  50  05  00  00
DESTIN      79  60  73  52  72 /  30  50  10  00  00
EVERGREEN   79  49  72  41  73 /  30  20  00  00  00
WAYNESBORO  76  46  72  42  72 /  20  10  00  00  00
CAMDEN      76  47  71  41  71 /  20  10  00  00  00
CRESTVIEW   82  54  74  40  75 /  30  50  05  00  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KMOB 290938
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
438 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SHORT TERM [TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT]...BROAD MID TO UPPER TROF
OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST AND DIG
THROUGH TONIGHT ALLOWING A MODERATE COLD FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PARTS OF AL AND MS THIS MORNING TO SHIFT SOUTH TO THE
NORTHERN GULF BY EARLY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT THUS LEADING TO
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWFA LATER THIS
MORNING SHIFTING SOUTH AND EAST OVER REMAINING PARTS OF THE CWFA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAIN
LOOKS TO BE OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA LATE THIS
MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHIFTING SOUTHEAST AND DAMPENING OUT
SOMEWHAT BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AS THE BEST FORCING
OR LIFT BEGINS SHEAR AND LIFT OFF TO THE NE. LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS
DEPICT LIMITED INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT COMBINED WITH PWATS
CLIMBING TO AROUND 1.45 INCHES FOR MOST AREAS SUGGESTING MOST OF THE
CONVECTION SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OCCURRING MOSTLY ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT TRACKS SOUTHWARD. AS A RESULT HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY FOR TODAY LOWERING RAIN CHANCES SOMEWHAT
FOR MOST OF THE LOWER HALF OF THE CWFA THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE OR STRONG THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALSO REMAINS
LOW DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF LIMITED INSTABILITY AND FORCING ALOFT.
OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THIS EVENING LEADING
ME TO LEAN TOWARDS THE COOLER MOS GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON THEN THE COOLER GUIDANCE OVERNIGHT DUE TO BETTER CLEARING
BY EARLY THU MORNING. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER
70S FOR NORTHERN SECTIONS AND THE LOWER 80S FURTHER SOUTH TO THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. TONIGHTS LOWS WILL FALL TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S OVER
MOST OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWFA AND THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S
FURTHER SOUTH TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST. 32/EE

THE NEXT BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH EASTWARD TOWARD THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION THURSDAY...THEN ACROSS THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHEASTERN U.S. BY THURSDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD FROM THE OH/TN VALLEY
AND SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH WELL SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF BY THURSDAY
NIGHT. A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WILL FILTER ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH PASSAGE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AVERAGING BETWEEN 0.3 AND 0.6
INCHES. SUNNY SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL THURSDAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
ON TAP FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. LOWER SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL ADVECT
SOUTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. WE EXPECT COOLER
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH READINGS RANGING FROM THE
LOWER 70S INLAND TO THE MID 70S NEAR THE COAST. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL FALL TO AROUND 40 TO THE LOWER 40S INLAND AND IN THE MID 40S TO
AROUND 50 NEAR THE COAST. /21

.LONG TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
DEEPEN AS IT MOVES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY MORNING TO THE
EASTERN SEABOARD BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN
ALOFT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS OUR AREA WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THIS
SYSTEM FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THEN WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS
RIDGING ALOFT AMPLIFIES NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. A
REINFORCING SURGE OF COLDER AIR WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE DIVES FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE
OH/TN VALLEY REGION. THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS SHOW 925 MB
TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO BETWEEN 0-2 C ACROSS OUR AREA BY 12Z
SATURDAY AND ONLY REBOUNDING TO BETWEEN 5-7 C BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AS THE STRONG SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. WE HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES SEVERAL
DEGREES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. IT APPEARS THAT HIGHS SATURDAY
WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 60 OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. CLEAR SKIES...
LIGHTER WINDS AND A DRY AIRMASS WILL FAVOR ONE OF THE COLDEST NIGHTS
OF THE AUTUMN SEASON SATURDAY NIGHT. WE EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO FALL
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S OVER INTERIOR AREAS LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...WITH LOWER TO MID 40S NEAR THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. PATCHY LIGHT FROST COULD IMPACT SOME LOCATIONS...
PARTICULARLY OVER THE INTERIOR SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL PUSH EASTWARD AND EXTEND FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO NORTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION
MONDAY. THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM LOOKS TO DEEPEN IN THE
VICINITY OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE AND
LIFT AHEAD OF THIS NEXT FEATURE CURRENTLY LOOKS TO MOSTLY REMAIN TO
THE WEST OF OUR AREA DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK...
SO POPS WILL BE KEPT LOW LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. SURFACE
RIDGING SHOULD BECOME CENTERED NEAR THE VICINITY OF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD AND WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH EAST
TO SOUTHEAST FLOW PREVALENT ACROSS OUR AREA BOTH DAYS. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD SUBSEQUENTLY MODIFY INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. /21

&&

.AVIATION...
29.12Z ISSUANCE...VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT 30.12Z WITH
POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS IN AND AROUND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SOUTHWARD ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
MOVING ACROSS REGION LATER TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE
MOSTLY SOUTH AT 3 TO 7 KNOTS THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON SHIFTING
NORTH AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING. 32/EE

&&

.MARINE...A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL BECOME MOSTLY NORTH BY
EARLY THIS EVENING IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHWARD
TOWARDS THE COAST. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BUILD TO AROUND 14 TO 17
KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THU MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
DIMINISHING SLIGHTLY THU AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THU NIGHT THEN
REBUILDING LATE THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI DUE TO COLD AIR DRAINAGE.
BY LATE FRI INTO SAT MORNING A STRONGER REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN GULF POSSIBLY
RESULTING IN SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE MARINE AREA BY
EARLY SAT MORNING POSSIBLY CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY SUN MORNING.
SEAS UP TO 7 FEET WELL OFFSHORE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
BETTER OFFSHORE FLOW BEGINNING BY EARLY SAT MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE WEAKEN
COLD FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. A MODERATE TO STRONG
EASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND SE STATES. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      81  54  73  45  74 /  40  20  00  00  00
PENSACOLA   81  59  73  49  73 /  40  50  05  00  00
DESTIN      79  60  73  52  72 /  40  50  10  00  00
EVERGREEN   79  49  72  41  73 /  50  20  00  00  00
WAYNESBORO  78  46  72  42  72 /  40  10  00  00  00
CAMDEN      77  47  71  41  71 /  60  10  00  00  00
CRESTVIEW   82  54  74  40  75 /  40  50  05  00  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

32/21








000
FXUS64 KMOB 290456
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1156 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.AVIATION...UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS UNTIL 09Z.
VISIBILITY DECREASING TO 4 MILES AT TIMES AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. VISIBILITY CONSIDERABLY LOWER IN SOUTHWEST
ALABAMA NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI STATE LINE AND POINTS WEST. CEILINGS
GENERALLY AROUND 8000 TO 12000 FT EARLY...LOWERING TO AROUND 2500
FEET AFTER SUNRISE AND TO LESS THAN 1000 FT WITH VISIBILITY 4 MILES
IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WIND LIGHT AND VARIABLE. /77

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1007 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014/

UPDATE...A BAND OF SHOWERS OVER THE GULF ARE PERSISTENTLY MOVING
EAST WHILE INDIVIDUAL CELLS MOVE NORTH INTO COASTAL BALDWIN COUNTY
AND COASTAL FLORIDA. WE BROUGHT THE POPS UP TO CHANCE CATEGORY IN
THOSE AREAS. SHOWING LOW RAINFALL PROSPECTS AS WELL SINCE THE ONE
HOUR RADAR DERIVED PRECIP ESTIMATES ARE AVERAGING LESS THAN A TENTH
OF AN INCH IN MOST PLACES WHERE IT IS RAINING. ADJUSTED THE EARLY
MORNING 06Z TO 12Z POPS AND WEATHER TO CHANCE CATEGORY ALSO.

/77

MARINE UPDATE...MAINLY A WEATHER UPDATE WITH THE BAND OF SHOWERS
OVER THE GULF. WE BROUGHT THE POPS UP TO CHANCE CATEGORY IN MOST OF
THE MARINE AREA. SHOWING LOW RAINFALL PROSPECTS AS THE ONE HOUR
RADAR DERIVED PRECIP ESTIMATES ARE AVERAGING LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN
INCH IN MOST PLACES WHERE IT IS RAINING. ADJUSTED THE EARLY MORNING
06Z TO 12Z POPS AND WEATHER AS WELL.

/77

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014/

AVIATION...VFR BECOMING MVFR DUE TO VISIBILITY DECREASING TO 4 MILES
AT TIMES AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. CEILINGS
GENERALLY AROUND 8000 TO 12000 FT. CLOUD COVER BECOMING SCATTERED
AROUND 2500 FT AFTER SUNRISE. WIND LIGHT AND VARIABLE. /77

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...FOR TONIGHT...A
WILDCARD...MAINLY FOR THE MARINE AREA...IS AN EXITING SHORTWAVE OVER
THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEX. ALL GUIDANCE HAS IT...BUT VARY ON
RAIN AMOUNTS. THE NAM...USUALLY THE WETTEST MODEL...IS THE DRIEST IN
THIS CASE. AM LEANING TOWARDS THE GFS/CANADIAN/ECMWF FOR THE MARINE
AREA AND PUTTING AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHRA TONIGHT. FOR LAND
AREAS...SOUTHERLY FLOW TODAY...AND SETTLING WINDS TONIGHT INCREASE
THE CHANCE OF FOG DEVELOPMENT. THE WILD CARD IN THIS CASE IS THE
AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AND RADIATIONAL COOLING. WITH CLOUDY TO
OVERCAST SKIES...COOLING WILL BE LIMITED...SO AM NOT EXPECTING
SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. TEMPS CONTINUE WELL ABOVE
SEASONAL.

FOR WEDNESDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS EAST OVER THE MISS RIVER
VALLEY...PUSHING A FRONT ACROSS THE LAND PORTION OF THE FA TO NEAR
THE COAST. WITH THE BEST DYNAMICS WELL NORTH OF THE GULF COAST...THE
PUSH WILL BE ON THE MILD TO MODERATE SIDE. ENOUGH INSTABILITY IS
EXPECTED TO BE PRESENT FOR THUNDER...BUT BEST INSTABILITY IS
EXPECTED TO PRESENT OVER THE GULF. LAND PORTIONS OF THE FA WILL SEE
LIMITED WIND SHEAR...SO AM NOT EXPECTING MANY...IF ANY...STRONG TO
SEVERE OVER THE LAND PORTION OF THE FA. OVER THE MARINE AREA IS A
DIFFERENT STORY. ALSO...EM EXPECTING BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP TO BE
OVER NORTHERN REGIONS OF THE FA. WITH THE COOLER AIR SLOWER TO MOVE
SOUTH ACROSS THE FA...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL
FOR MOST OF THE FA. FAR NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS MAY SEE TEMPS CLOSER
TO SEASONAL WITH MORE RAIN AND BETTER CHANCE OF COOLER AIR GETTING
TO THEM. /16

FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...A LONGWAVE TROF AMPLIFIES
OVER THE EASTERN STATES THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH A DEEP CLOSED LOW
FORMING IN THE BASE OF THE TROF AND SWINGING INTO THE INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST STATES FRIDAY NIGHT.  THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER TROF
BECOMES QUITE INTENSE AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST STATES...REACHING ABOUT 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL
FRIDAY NIGHT PER THE GFS...AND POSSIBLY A WHOPPING 5 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL PER THE 00Z ECMWF BEFORE MOVING OF INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY.  AT EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING...THE COLD
FRONT WILL HAVE JUST MOVED THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WITH A COOL
SURFACE HIGH BUILDING INTO THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT.  ISENTROPIC LAYER LIFTING SEEN IN 295-300K LAYER AND LOW
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS LOOK SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SMALL POPS
WEDNESDAY EVENING OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA.  DRY
CONDITIONS ARE OTHERWISE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL BE NEAR
SEASONABLE VALUES AND RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S INLAND TO LOWER/MID
50S CLOSER TO THE COAST.  HIGHS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE NEAR
SEASONABLE VALUES AND IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.  LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGREE BELOW NORMAL AND RANGE FROM
THE LOWER 40S INLAND TO MID 40S CLOSER TO THE COAST.  A REINFORCING
COLD FRONT WILL MEANWHILE MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY EVENING WITH EVEN COOLER AIR FOR THE FORECAST AREA IN THE
EARLY PORTION OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. /29

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.  AS MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE MID 60S AND LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE UPPER
30S INLAND TO LOWER/MID 40S NEAR THE COAST.  A WARMING TREND ENSUES
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP ON TUESDAY. /29

AVIATION...
18Z ISSUANCE...VFR ATTM ACROSS THE FA...WITH MORNING FOG GONE. AM
EXPECTING THIS TO CONTINUE...EVEN WITH THE CU FIELD DEVELOPING OVER
THE FA WITH THE DAYTIME HEATING. ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG IS LIKELY
TONIGHT...WITH MOISTURE LEVELS SO HIGH AND CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AFTER SUNSET. AM REFLECTING THIS IN THE TAFS...WITH MIXING
OUT AFTER SUNRISE. /16

MARINE...ONSHORE FLOW WILL LAST INTO MOST OF WEDNESDAY...WITH A
WEAK TO MODERATE FRONT MOVING TO NEAR THE COAST BY THE END OF THE
DAY WEDNESDAY. BEHIND THIS FRONT AS IT MOVES OVER THE MARINE PORTION
OF THE FA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A MORE MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW IS LIKELY.
A SECOND SHORTWAVE INDUCED SURGE WILL COME LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL COME WITH THIS
SECONDARY SURGE...AND SMALL CRAFT LEVEL WINDS LIKELY THIS WEEKEND. /16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      65  81  52  74  45 /  20  60  20  05  05
PENSACOLA   69  81  55  75  50 /  30  60  20  05  00
DESTIN      73  79  58  74  53 /  20  50  20  05  00
EVERGREEN   62  81  48  72  40 /  20  60  20  05  00
WAYNESBORO  63  76  46  72  41 /  20  60  10  00  00
CAMDEN      61  77  47  71  41 /  20  70  10  00  05
CRESTVIEW   64  81  52  75  39 /  20  60  20  05  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$











000
FXUS64 KMOB 290307
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1007 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.UPDATE...A BAND OF SHOWERS OVER THE GULF ARE PERSISTENTLY MOVING
EAST WHILE INDIVIDUAL CELLS MOVE NORTH INTO COASTAL BALDWIN COUNTY
AND COASTAL FLORIDA. WE BROUGHT THE POPS UP TO CHANCE CATEGORY IN
THOSE AREAS. SHOWING LOW RAINFALL PROSPECTS AS WELL SINCE THE ONE
HOUR RADAR DERIVED PRECIP ESTIMATES ARE AVERAGING LESS THAN A TENTH
OF AN INCH IN MOST PLACES WHERE IT IS RAINING. ADJUSTED THE EARLY
MORNING 06Z TO 12Z POPS AND WEATHER TO CHANCE CATEGORY ALSO.

/77

.MARINE UPDATE...MAINLY A WEATHER UPDATE WITH THE BAND OF SHOWERS
OVER THE GULF. WE BROUGHT THE POPS UP TO CHANCE CATEGORY IN MOST OF
THE MARINE AREA. SHOWING LOW RAINFALL PROSPECTS AS THE ONE HOUR
RADAR DERIVED PRECIP ESTIMATES ARE AVERAGING LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN
INCH IN MOST PLACES WHERE IT IS RAINING. ADJUSTED THE EARLY MORNING
06Z TO 12Z POPS AND WEATHER AS WELL.

/77

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014/

AVIATION...VFR BECOMING MVFR DUE TO VISIBILITY DECREASING TO 4 MILES
AT TIMES AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. CEILINGS
GENERALLY AROUND 8000 TO 12000 FT. CLOUD COVER BECOMING SCATTERED
AROUND 2500 FT AFTER SUNRISE. WIND LIGHT AND VARIABLE. /77

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...FOR TONIGHT...A
WILDCARD...MAINLY FOR THE MARINE AREA...IS AN EXITING SHORTWAVE OVER
THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEX. ALL GUIDANCE HAS IT...BUT VARY ON
RAIN AMOUNTS. THE NAM...USUALLY THE WETTEST MODEL...IS THE DRIEST IN
THIS CASE. AM LEANING TOWARDS THE GFS/CANADIAN/ECMWF FOR THE MARINE
AREA AND PUTTING AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHRA TONIGHT. FOR LAND
AREAS...SOUTHERLY FLOW TODAY...AND SETTLING WINDS TONIGHT INCREASE
THE CHANCE OF FOG DEVELOPMENT. THE WILD CARD IN THIS CASE IS THE
AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AND RADIATIONAL COOLING. WITH CLOUDY TO
OVERCAST SKIES...COOLING WILL BE LIMITED...SO AM NOT EXPECTING
SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. TEMPS CONTINUE WELL ABOVE
SEASONAL.

FOR WEDNESDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS EAST OVER THE MISS RIVER
VALLEY...PUSHING A FRONT ACROSS THE LAND PORTION OF THE FA TO NEAR
THE COAST. WITH THE BEST DYNAMICS WELL NORTH OF THE GULF COAST...THE
PUSH WILL BE ON THE MILD TO MODERATE SIDE. ENOUGH INSTABILITY IS
EXPECTED TO BE PRESENT FOR THUNDER...BUT BEST INSTABILITY IS
EXPECTED TO PRESENT OVER THE GULF. LAND PORTIONS OF THE FA WILL SEE
LIMITED WIND SHEAR...SO AM NOT EXPECTING MANY...IF ANY...STRONG TO
SEVERE OVER THE LAND PORTION OF THE FA. OVER THE MARINE AREA IS A
DIFFERENT STORY. ALSO...EM EXPECTING BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP TO BE
OVER NORTHERN REGIONS OF THE FA. WITH THE COOLER AIR SLOWER TO MOVE
SOUTH ACROSS THE FA...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL
FOR MOST OF THE FA. FAR NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS MAY SEE TEMPS CLOSER
TO SEASONAL WITH MORE RAIN AND BETTER CHANCE OF COOLER AIR GETTING
TO THEM. /16

FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...A LONGWAVE TROF AMPLIFIES
OVER THE EASTERN STATES THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH A DEEP CLOSED LOW
FORMING IN THE BASE OF THE TROF AND SWINGING INTO THE INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST STATES FRIDAY NIGHT.  THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER TROF
BECOMES QUITE INTENSE AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST STATES...REACHING ABOUT 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL
FRIDAY NIGHT PER THE GFS...AND POSSIBLY A WHOPPING 5 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL PER THE 00Z ECMWF BEFORE MOVING OF INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY.  AT EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING...THE COLD
FRONT WILL HAVE JUST MOVED THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WITH A COOL
SURFACE HIGH BUILDING INTO THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT.  ISENTROPIC LAYER LIFTING SEEN IN 295-300K LAYER AND LOW
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS LOOK SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SMALL POPS
WEDNESDAY EVENING OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA.  DRY
CONDITIONS ARE OTHERWISE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL BE NEAR
SEASONABLE VALUES AND RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S INLAND TO LOWER/MID
50S CLOSER TO THE COAST.  HIGHS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE NEAR
SEASONABLE VALUES AND IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.  LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGREE BELOW NORMAL AND RANGE FROM
THE LOWER 40S INLAND TO MID 40S CLOSER TO THE COAST.  A REINFORCING
COLD FRONT WILL MEANWHILE MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY EVENING WITH EVEN COOLER AIR FOR THE FORECAST AREA IN THE
EARLY PORTION OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. /29

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.  AS MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE MID 60S AND LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE UPPER
30S INLAND TO LOWER/MID 40S NEAR THE COAST.  A WARMING TREND ENSUES
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP ON TUESDAY. /29

AVIATION...
18Z ISSUANCE...VFR ATTM ACROSS THE FA...WITH MORNING FOG GONE. AM
EXPECTING THIS TO CONTINUE...EVEN WITH THE CU FIELD DEVELOPING OVER
THE FA WITH THE DAYTIME HEATING. ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG IS LIKELY
TONIGHT...WITH MOISTURE LEVELS SO HIGH AND CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AFTER SUNSET. AM REFLECTING THIS IN THE TAFS...WITH MIXING
OUT AFTER SUNRISE. /16

MARINE...ONSHORE FLOW WILL LAST INTO MOST OF WEDNESDAY...WITH A
WEAK TO MODERATE FRONT MOVING TO NEAR THE COAST BY THE END OF THE
DAY WEDNESDAY. BEHIND THIS FRONT AS IT MOVES OVER THE MARINE PORTION
OF THE FA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A MORE MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW IS LIKELY.
A SECOND SHORTWAVE INDUCED SURGE WILL COME LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL COME WITH THIS
SECONDARY SURGE...AND SMALL CRAFT LEVEL WINDS LIKELY THIS WEEKEND. /16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      65  81  52  74  45 /  20  60  20  05  05
PENSACOLA   69  81  55  75  50 /  30  60  20  05  00
DESTIN      73  79  58  74  53 /  20  50  20  05  00
EVERGREEN   62  81  48  72  40 /  20  60  20  05  00
WAYNESBORO  63  76  46  72  41 /  20  60  10  00  00
CAMDEN      61  77  47  71  41 /  20  70  10  00  05
CRESTVIEW   64  81  52  75  39 /  20  60  20  05  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$











000
FXUS64 KMOB 282332
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
632 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.AVIATION...VFR BECOMING MVFR DUE TO VISIBILITY DECREASING TO 4 MILES
AT TIMES AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. CEILINGS
GENERALLY AROUND 8000 TO 12000 FT. CLOUD COVER BECOMING SCATTERED
AROUND 2500 FT AFTER SUNRISE. WIND LIGHT AND VARIABLE. /77

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...FOR TONIGHT...A
WILDCARD...MAINLY FOR THE MARINE AREA...IS AN EXITING SHORTWAVE OVER
THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEX. ALL GUIDANCE HAS IT...BUT VARY ON
RAIN AMOUNTS. THE NAM...USUALLY THE WETTEST MODEL...IS THE DRIEST IN
THIS CASE. AM LEANING TO2WARDS THE GFS/CANADIAN/ECMWF FOR THE MARINE
AREA AND PUTTING AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHRA TONIGHT. FOR LAND
AREAS...SOUTHERLY FLOW TODAY...AND SETTLING WINDS TONIGHT INCREASE
THE CHANCE OF FOG DEVELOPMENT. THE WILD CARD IN THIS CASE IS THE
AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AND RADIATIONAL COOLING. WITH CLOUDY TO
OVERCAST SKIES...COOLING WILL BE LIMITED...SO AM NOT EXPECTING
SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. TEMPS CONTINUE WELL ABOVE
SEASONAL.

FOR WEDNESDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS EAST OVER THE MISS RIVER
VALLEY...PUSHING A FRONT ACROSS THE LAND PORTION OF THE FA TO NEAR
THE COAST. WITH THE BEST DYNAMICS WELL NORTH OF THE GULF COAST...THE
PUSH WILL BE ON THE MILD TO MODERATE SIDE. ENOUGH INSTABILITY IS
EXPECTED TO BE PRESENT FOR THUNDER...BUT BEST INSTABILITY IS
EXPECTED TO PRESENT OVER THE GULF. LAND PORTIONS OF THE FA WILL SEE
LIMITED WIND SHEAR...SO AM NOT EXPECTING MANY...IF ANY...STRONG TO
SEVERE OVER THE LAND PORTION OF THE FA. OVER THE MARINE AREA IS A
DIFFERENT STORY. ALSO...EM EXPECTING BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP TO BE
OVER NORTHERN REGIONS OF THE FA. WITH THE COOLER AIR SLOWER TO MOVE
SOUTH ACROSS THE FA...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL
FOR MOST OF THE FA. FAR NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS MAY SEE TEMPS CLOSER
TO SEASONAL WITH MORE RAIN AND BETTER CHANCE OF COOLER AIR GETTING
TO THEM. /16

FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...A LONGWAVE TROF AMPLIFIES
OVER THE EASTERN STATES THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH A DEEP CLOSED LOW
FORMING IN THE BASE OF THE TROF AND SWINGING INTO THE INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST STATES FRIDAY NIGHT.  THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER TROF
BECOMES QUITE INTENSE AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST STATES...REACHING ABOUT 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL
FRIDAY NIGHT PER THE GFS...AND POSSIBLY A WHOPPING 5 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL PER THE 00Z ECMWF BEFORE MOVING OF INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY.  AT EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING...THE COLD
FRONT WILL HAVE JUST MOVED THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WITH A COOL
SURFACE HIGH BUILDING INTO THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT.  ISENTROPIC LAYER LIFTING SEEN IN 295-300K LAYER AND LOW
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS LOOK SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SMALL POPS
WEDNESDAY EVENING OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA.  DRY
CONDITIONS ARE OTHERWISE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL BE NEAR
SEASONABLE VALUES AND RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S INLAND TO LOWER/MID
50S CLOSER TO THE COAST.  HIGHS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE NEAR
SEASONABLE VALUES AND IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.  LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGREE BELOW NORMAL AND RANGE FROM
THE LOWER 40S INLAND TO MID 40S CLOSER TO THE COAST.  A REINFORCING
COLD FRONT WILL MEANWHILE MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY EVENING WITH EVEN COOLER AIR FOR THE FORECAST AREA IN THE
EARLY PORTION OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. /29

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.  AS MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE MID 60S AND LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE UPPER
30S INLAND TO LOWER/MID 40S NEAR THE COAST.  A WARMING TREND ENSUES
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP ON TUESDAY. /29

AVIATION...
18Z ISSUANCE...VFR ATTM ACROSS THE FA...WITH MORNING FOG GONE. AM
EXPECTING THIS TO CONTINUE...EVEN WITH THE CU FIELD DEVELOPING OVER
THE FA WITH THE DAYTIME HEATING. ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG IS LIKELY
TONIGHT...WITH MOISTURE LEVELS SO HIGH AND CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AFTER SUNSET. AM REFLECTING THIS IN THE TAFS...WITH MIXING
OUT AFTER SUNRISE. /16

MARINE...ONSHORE FLOW WILL LAST INTO MOST OF WEDNESDAY...WITH A
WEAK TO MODERATE FRONT MOVING TO NEAR THE COAST BY THE END OF THE
DAY WEDNESDAY. BEHIND THIS FRONT AS IT MOVES OVER THE MARINE PORTION
OF THE FA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A MORE MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW IS LIKELY.
A SECOND SHORTWAVE INDUCED SURGE WILL COME LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL COME WITH THIS
SECONDARY SURGE...AND SMALL CRAFT LEVEL WINDS LIKELY THIS WEEKEND. /16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      65  81  52  74  45 /  20  60  20  05  05
PENSACOLA   69  81  55  75  50 /  20  60  20  05  00
DESTIN      73  79  58  74  53 /  20  50  20  05  00
EVERGREEN   62  81  48  72  40 /  20  60  20  05  00
WAYNESBORO  63  76  46  72  41 /  20  60  10  00  00
CAMDEN      61  77  47  71  41 /  20  70  10  00  05
CRESTVIEW   64  81  52  75  39 /  20  60  20  05  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$












000
FXUS64 KMOB 282031
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
331 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...FOR TONIGHT...A
WILDCARD...MAINLY FOR THE MARINE AREA...IS AN EXITING SHORTWAVE OVER
THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEX. ALL GUIDANCE HAS IT...BUT VARY ON
RAIN AMOUNTS. THE NAM...USUALLY THE WETTEST MODEL...IS THE DRIEST IN
THIS CASE. AM LEANING TO2WARDS THE GFS/CANADIAN/ECMWF FOR THE MARINE
AREA AND PUTTING AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHRA TONIGHT. FOR LAND
AREAS...SOUTHERLY FLOW TODAY...AND SETTLING WINDS TONIGHT INCREASE
THE CHANCE OF FOG DEVELOPMENT. THE WILD CARD IN THIS CASE IS THE
AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AND RADIATIONAL COOLING. WITH CLOUDY TO
OVERCAST SKIES...COOLING WILL BE LIMITED...SO AM NOT EXPECTING
SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. TEMPS CONTINUE WELL ABOVE
SEASONAL.

FOR WEDNESDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS EAST OVER THE MISS RIVER
VALLEY...PUSHING A FRONT ACROSS THE LAND PORTION OF THE FA TO NEAR
THE COAST. WITH THE BEST DYNAMICS WELL NORTH OF THE GULF COAST...THE
PUSH WILL BE ON THE MILD TO MODERATE SIDE. ENOUGH INSTABILITY IS
EXPECTED TO BE PRESENT FOR THUNDER...BUT BEST INSTABILITY IS
EXPECTED TO PRESENT OVER THE GULF. LAND PORTIONS OF THE FA WILL SEE
LIMITED WIND SHEAR...SO AM NOT EXPECTING MANY...IF ANY...STRONG TO
SEVERE OVER THE LAND PORTION OF THE FA. OVER THE MARINE AREA IS A
DIFFERENT STORY. ALSO...EM EXPECTING BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP TO BE
OVER NORTHERN REGIONS OF THE FA. WITH THE COOLER AIR SLOWER TO MOVE
SOUTH ACROSS THE FA...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL
FOR MOST OF THE FA. FAR NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS MAY SEE TEMPS CLOSER
TO SEASONAL WITH MORE RAIN AND BETTER CHANCE OF COOLER AIR GETTING
TO THEM. /16

FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...A LONGWAVE TROF AMPLIFIES
OVER THE EASTERN STATES THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH A DEEP CLOSED LOW
FORMING IN THE BASE OF THE TROF AND SWINGING INTO THE INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST STATES FRIDAY NIGHT.  THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER TROF
BECOMES QUITE INTENSE AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST STATES...REACHING ABOUT 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL
FRIDAY NIGHT PER THE GFS...AND POSSIBLY A WHOPPING 5 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL PER THE 00Z ECMWF BEFORE MOVING OF INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY.  AT EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING...THE COLD
FRONT WILL HAVE JUST MOVED THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WITH A COOL
SURFACE HIGH BUILDING INTO THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT.  ISENTROPIC LAYER LIFTING SEEN IN 295-300K LAYER AND LOW
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS LOOK SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SMALL POPS
WEDNESDAY EVENING OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA.  DRY
CONDITIONS ARE OTHERWISE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL BE NEAR
SEASONABLE VALUES AND RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S INLAND TO LOWER/MID
50S CLOSER TO THE COAST.  HIGHS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE NEAR
SEASONABLE VALUES AND IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.  LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGREE BELOW NORMAL AND RANGE FROM
THE LOWER 40S INLAND TO MID 40S CLOSER TO THE COAST.  A REINFORCING
COLD FRONT WILL MEANWHILE MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY EVENING WITH EVEN COOLER AIR FOR THE FORECAST AREA IN THE
EARLY PORTION OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. /29

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.  AS MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE MID 60S AND LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE UPPER
30S INLAND TO LOWER/MID 40S NEAR THE COAST.  A WARMING TREND ENSUES
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP ON TUESDAY. /29

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z ISSUANCE...VFR ATTM ACROSS THE FA...WITH MORNING FOG GONE. AM
EXPECTING THIS TO CONTINUE...EVEN WITH THE CU FIELD DEVELOPING OVER
THE FA WITH THE DAYTIME HEATING. ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG IS LIKELY
TONIGHT...WITH MOISTURE LEVELS SO HIGH AND CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AFTER SUNSET. AM REFLECTING THIS IN THE TAFS...WITH MIXING
OUT AFTER SUNRISE. /16

&&

.MARINE...ONSHORE FLOW WILL LAST INTO MOST OF WEDNESDAY...WITH A
WEAK TO MODERATE FRONT MOVING TO NEAR THE COAST BY THE END OF THE
DAY WEDNESDAY. BEHIND THIS FRONT AS IT MOVES OVER THE MARINE PORTION
OF THE FA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A MORE MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW IS LIKELY.
A SECOND SHORTWAVE INDUCED SURGE WILL COME LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL COME WITH THIS
SECONDARY SURGE...AND SMALL CRAFT LEVEL WINDS LIKELY THIS WEEKEND. /16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      65  81  52  74  45 /  20  60  20  05  05
PENSACOLA   69  81  55  75  50 /  20  60  20  05  00
DESTIN      73  79  58  74  53 /  20  50  20  05  00
EVERGREEN   62  81  48  72  40 /  20  60  20  05  00
WAYNESBORO  63  76  46  72  41 /  20  60  10  00  00
CAMDEN      61  77  47  71  41 /  20  70  10  00  05
CRESTVIEW   64  81  52  75  39 /  20  60  20  05  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMOB 281700 AAC
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM AND AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1155 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.UPDATE...EVERYTHING GENERALLY ON TRACK WITH THE FORECAST. NO
UPDATES PLANNED

/16

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z ISSUANCE...VFR ATTM ACROSS THE FA...WITH MORNING FOG GONE. AM
EXPECTING THIS TO CONTINUE...EVEN WITH THE CU FIELD DEVELOPING OVER
THE FA WITH THE DAYTIME HEATING. ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG IS LIKELY
TONIGHT...WITH MOISTURE LEVELS SO HIGH AND CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AFTER SUNSET. AM REFLECTING THIS IN THE TAFS...WITH MIXING
OUT AFTER SUNRISE.

/16

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$














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