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000
FXUS64 KMOB 291130 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
630 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE...HAVE DEPARTED FROM GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT TO COGS FOR
THE FORECAST. CURRENT CLOUD BASES ARE WELL ABOVE VFR MINIMUMS AND AM
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHRA/TSRA WILL CREATE LOCALIZED DROPS TO MVFR OR LOWER CIGS/VISBYS
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...BUT AM EXPECTING THIS COVERAGE TO BE
GENERALLY INLAND FROM THE COAST. TONIGHT...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
ADVERTISE LOW END MVFR/UPPER IFR LEVEL CIGS...BUT WITHT HE CURRENT
TRACK RECORD...AM TENDING TO DISCOUNT FOR THE LAST 12HRS OF THE
FORECAST.

/16

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 454 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...AN UPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE
EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...ORGANIZING
THE ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. IN THIS CASE...A DRIER
AIRMASS WILL MOVE INLAND TODAY INTO TONIGHT...WITH UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GULF PROVIDING THE DOWNWARD MOTION TO
CREATE THE DRIER AIRMASS. PRECIP H20 VALUES DROP FROM AROUND 1.5-
1.6" TO 1.1-1.2"...WITH THE LOWEST 5K` OF THE ATMOSPHERE SEEING A
SIGNIFICANT DRYING OUT LATER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. STILL FEEL THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER MOST OF THE FA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A BETTER CHANCE
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA WITH THIS AREA HANGING ON TO THE
HIGHER PRECIP H20 VALUES TODAY. FOR TODAY`S TEMPS...ALL GUIDANCE IS
ADVERTISING ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPS...WITH THE GFS BEING SEVERAL DEGREES
WARMER THAN THE NAM AND ECMWF. HAVE WENT IN THE MIDDLE...TAKING A
AVERAGE OF THE NUMBERS AS A START...AS FEEL THE GFS IS OVERDONE.
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S EXPECTED TODAY.

FOR TONIGHT...WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUING TO DRY OUT...SOME
GIVE AND TAKE WILL OCCUR. GUIDANCE IS STILL ADVERTISING MID/UPPER
LEVEL CLOUD DECK...MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE FA TONIGHT
(DUE TO DEBRIS FROM CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO THE WEST AND THIS
AFTERNOON`S ACTIVITY). COMBINED WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW...OVERNIGHT
TEMPS WELL ABOVE SEASONAL EXPECTED...WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO
AROUND 70. /16

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTHEAST STATES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT SOUTH WIND ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...ALONG WITH MILD AND MODERATELY HUMID CONDITIONS. A
DEEP SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION THROUGH
SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AN UPPER
ZONAL FLOW WILL THEN FOLLOW ON SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LOW FILLS AND
EJECTS TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES OCCURRING ON SUNDAY AS THE
STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES PASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. STILL
EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTHWEST OF I-65...WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTHEAST. AT THIS TIME IT
APPEARS THE INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR CLOUD SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A FEW STRONG STORMS PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY SURFACE WINDS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM 84 TO 89 DEGREES INLAND
AREAS...WITH LOWER 80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER. LOW TEMPERATURES OVER THE
WEEKEND WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 6OS INLAND AREAS...WITH LOWER
70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. /22

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT
EAST AS WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SETS UP OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY DURING THE PEAK HEATING
HOURS...AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION. WITH THE SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST
OF THE AREA MIDWEEK AND THE PASSING OF THE COLD FRONT...A DRIER AND
COOLER AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG
TERM. /22

MARINE...GENERAL ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND UNTIL
EARLY MONDAY...WHEN A WEAK BOUNDARY SAGS TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
AND STALLS FOR SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL WEAKEN THE ONSHORE FLOW UNTIL
A SERIES OF UPPER DISTURBANCES PUSH THE BOUNDARY OFFSHORE MID
WEEK...BRINGING A LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW. /16

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MOB





000
FXUS64 KMOB 290954
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
454 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...AN UPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE
EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...ORGANIZING
THE ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. IN THIS CASE...A DRIER
AIRMASS WILL MOVE INLAND TODAY INTO TONIGHT...WITH UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GULF PROVIDING THE DOWNWARD MOTION TO
CREATE THE DRIER AIRMASS. PRECIP H20 VALUES DROP FROM AROUND 1.5-
1.6" TO 1.1-1.2"...WITH THE LOWEST 5K` OF THE ATMOSPHERE SEEING A
SIGNIFICANT DRYING OUT LATER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. STILL FEEL THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER MOST OF THE FA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A BETTER CHANCE
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA WITH THIS AREA HANGING ON TO THE
HIGHER PRECIP H20 VALUES TODAY. FOR TODAY`S TEMPS...ALL GUIDANCE IS
ADVERTISING ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPS...WITH THE GFS BEING SEVERAL DEGREES
WARMER THAN THE NAM AND ECMWF. HAVE WENT IN THE MIDDLE...TAKING A
AVERAGE OF THE NUMBERS AS A START...AS FEEL THE GFS IS OVERDONE.
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S EXPECTED TODAY.

FOR TONIGHT...WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUING TO DRY OUT...SOME
GIVE AND TAKE WILL OCCUR. GUIDANCE IS STILL ADVERTISING MID/UPPER
LEVEL CLOUD DECK...MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE FA TONIGHT
(DUE TO DEBRIS FROM CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO THE WEST AND THIS
AFTERNOON`S ACTIVITY). COMBINED WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW...OVERNIGHT
TEMPS WELL ABOVE SEASONAL EXPECTED...WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO
AROUND 70. /16

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTHEAST STATES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT SOUTH WIND ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...ALONG WITH MILD AND MODERATELY HUMID CONDITIONS. A
DEEP SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION THROUGH
SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AN UPPER
ZONAL FLOW WILL THEN FOLLOW ON SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LOW FILLS AND
EJECTS TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES OCCURRING ON SUNDAY AS THE
STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES PASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. STILL
EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTHWEST OF I-65...WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTHEAST. AT THIS TIME IT
APPEARS THE INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR CLOUD SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A FEW STRONG STORMS PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY SURFACE WINDS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM 84 TO 89 DEGREES INLAND
AREAS...WITH LOWER 80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER. LOW TEMPERATURES OVER THE
WEEKEND WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 6OS INLAND AREAS...WITH LOWER
70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. /22

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT
EAST AS WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SETS UP OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY DURING THE PEAK HEATING
HOURS...AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION. WITH THE SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST
OF THE AREA MIDWEEK AND THE PASSING OF THE COLD FRONT...A DRIER AND
COOLER AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG
TERM. /22

&&

.MARINE...GENERAL ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND UNTIL
EARLY MONDAY...WHEN A WEAK BOUNDARY SAGS TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
AND STALLS FOR SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL WEAKEN THE ONSHORE FLOW UNTIL
A SERIES OF UPPER DISTURBANCES PUSH THE BOUNDARY OFFSHORE MID
WEEK...BRINGING A LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW. /16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      86  69  85  69 /  20   0  20  20
PENSACOLA   84  70  84  71 /  20   0  10  10
DESTIN      82  72  81  72 /  20   0  10  10
EVERGREEN   88  66  88  67 /  20   0  10  20
WAYNESBORO  90  67  86  67 /  30  10  20  40
CAMDEN      87  66  88  67 /  30  10  20  30
CRESTVIEW   89  65  88  67 /  20   0  10  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MOB





000
FXUS64 KMOB 290954
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
454 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...AN UPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE
EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...ORGANIZING
THE ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. IN THIS CASE...A DRIER
AIRMASS WILL MOVE INLAND TODAY INTO TONIGHT...WITH UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GULF PROVIDING THE DOWNWARD MOTION TO
CREATE THE DRIER AIRMASS. PRECIP H20 VALUES DROP FROM AROUND 1.5-
1.6" TO 1.1-1.2"...WITH THE LOWEST 5K` OF THE ATMOSPHERE SEEING A
SIGNIFICANT DRYING OUT LATER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. STILL FEEL THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER MOST OF THE FA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A BETTER CHANCE
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA WITH THIS AREA HANGING ON TO THE
HIGHER PRECIP H20 VALUES TODAY. FOR TODAY`S TEMPS...ALL GUIDANCE IS
ADVERTISING ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPS...WITH THE GFS BEING SEVERAL DEGREES
WARMER THAN THE NAM AND ECMWF. HAVE WENT IN THE MIDDLE...TAKING A
AVERAGE OF THE NUMBERS AS A START...AS FEEL THE GFS IS OVERDONE.
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S EXPECTED TODAY.

FOR TONIGHT...WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUING TO DRY OUT...SOME
GIVE AND TAKE WILL OCCUR. GUIDANCE IS STILL ADVERTISING MID/UPPER
LEVEL CLOUD DECK...MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE FA TONIGHT
(DUE TO DEBRIS FROM CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO THE WEST AND THIS
AFTERNOON`S ACTIVITY). COMBINED WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW...OVERNIGHT
TEMPS WELL ABOVE SEASONAL EXPECTED...WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO
AROUND 70. /16

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTHEAST STATES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT SOUTH WIND ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...ALONG WITH MILD AND MODERATELY HUMID CONDITIONS. A
DEEP SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION THROUGH
SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AN UPPER
ZONAL FLOW WILL THEN FOLLOW ON SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LOW FILLS AND
EJECTS TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES OCCURRING ON SUNDAY AS THE
STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES PASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. STILL
EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTHWEST OF I-65...WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTHEAST. AT THIS TIME IT
APPEARS THE INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR CLOUD SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A FEW STRONG STORMS PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY SURFACE WINDS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM 84 TO 89 DEGREES INLAND
AREAS...WITH LOWER 80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER. LOW TEMPERATURES OVER THE
WEEKEND WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 6OS INLAND AREAS...WITH LOWER
70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. /22

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT
EAST AS WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SETS UP OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY DURING THE PEAK HEATING
HOURS...AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION. WITH THE SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST
OF THE AREA MIDWEEK AND THE PASSING OF THE COLD FRONT...A DRIER AND
COOLER AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG
TERM. /22

&&

.MARINE...GENERAL ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND UNTIL
EARLY MONDAY...WHEN A WEAK BOUNDARY SAGS TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
AND STALLS FOR SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL WEAKEN THE ONSHORE FLOW UNTIL
A SERIES OF UPPER DISTURBANCES PUSH THE BOUNDARY OFFSHORE MID
WEEK...BRINGING A LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW. /16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      86  69  85  69 /  20   0  20  20
PENSACOLA   84  70  84  71 /  20   0  10  10
DESTIN      82  72  81  72 /  20   0  10  10
EVERGREEN   88  66  88  67 /  20   0  10  20
WAYNESBORO  90  67  86  67 /  30  10  20  40
CAMDEN      87  66  88  67 /  30  10  20  30
CRESTVIEW   89  65  88  67 /  20   0  10  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MOB





000
FXUS64 KMOB 290455 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1155 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z ISSUANCE...IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME LOCATIONS EXPERIENCING LIFR
CONDITIONS. THE CEILING IMPROVES TO MVFR BY MID FRIDAY MORNING WITH
FOG DISSIPATING...FOLLOWED BY VFR CONDITIONS NEAR MIDDAY. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS BECOME SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AND INCREASE TO NEAR 10
KNOTS BY MIDDAY. /29

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 550 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016/

DISCUSSION...SEE UPDATED INFORMATION BELOW.

UPDATE...UPDATED EARLIER TO REDUCE POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS...THEN GO WITH DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE LATE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.  MADE OTHER MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. /29

AVIATION...
00Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN IFR CEILING AND FOG DEVELOPING
DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS TO SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEGRADE OVERNIGHT TO LIFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CEILINGS
AND FOG FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...THEN IMPROVE TO A MVFR CEILING BY MID
FRIDAY MORNING. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS BECOME VARIABLE TONIGHT...WITH
A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WIND DEVELOPING FRIDAY MORNING. /29

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016/

NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH FRIDAY/...AFTER AN ACTIVE MORNING OF
THUNDERSTORMS CONDITIONS ARE BEGINNING IMPROVE ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE WINDS IN THE 30 TO 40 KNOT RANGE
SUSTAINED...MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE COMPLEX OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS...HAVE BEGIN TO DIMINISH QUICKLY AS THE BULK OF THE
HEAVIER CONVECTION CONTINUES TO MOVE WELL OFFSHORE. CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPROVE THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON AS A SHARP UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF REGION AND SOUTHEAST CONUS THROUGH FRI
AFTERNOON...SLOWLY SHIFTING EASTWARD INTO THE WEEKEND...IN RESPONSE
TO DEEP UPPER TROF OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
FOR TONIGHT SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR MOSTLY OVER WESTERN AND
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
CONTINUING FURTHER SOUTH ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST AND OFFSHORE. FOR
FRI MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW ANOTHER MID LEVEL
IMPULSE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST SHIFTING NE ACROSS
LOWER LA AND INTO MS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE PROVIDING
SOME WEAK FORCING OR LIFT TO SUPPORT SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS
ACROSS WESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY FRI SHIFTING INLAND
OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY AFTERNOON.
WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY AND FORCING THUNDERSTORMS THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW TO NIL.

AS FOR TEMPS WILL USE A BLEND OF ALL THE MOS GUIDANCE MOSTLY DUE TO
CLOUDS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST AND BETTER CONSISTENCY WITH SURROUNDING
WFOS. TONIGHTS LOWS WILL BE A TAD ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH LOWS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE LOWER 70S
CLOSER TO THE COAST. HIGHS FRI WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE RANGING FROM THE
MID TO UPPER 80S INLAND AND THE LOWER 80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
32/EE

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...SHORTWAVE RIDGING
WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...A WARM AND MOIST ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER AND STORMS POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING PEAK
HEATING. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS AN UPPER
TROUGH EJECTS INTO THE MIDWESTERN STATES WITH AN ASSOCIATED SFC LOW
AND TRAILING FRONT MOVING EASTWARD. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED SUNDAY. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED...HOWEVER LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S
INLAND TO AROUND 70 ALONG THE COAST. /13

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...THE FRONT STALLS NEAR THE
COAST MONDAY WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN ON TUESDAY AS A FAST
MOVING SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WITH HIGH END SCATTERED
COVERAGES EXPECTED. COVERAGE WILL AGAIN BE MAXIMIZED DURING THE PEAK
HEATING PERIOD. THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST WEDNESDAY WITH A DRIER AND
COOLER AIRMASS MOVING INTO THE AREA FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. /13

MARINE...A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL BECOME
REESTABLISHED THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY AS A LARGE
COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO EXIT OFF TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS WILL OCCUR NEAR THE COAST AND OVER
INLAND BAYS AND SOUNDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS
THROUGH SATURDAY DUE TO AFTERNOON HEATING AND LOCAL SEABREEZE
EFFECTS. A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME BETTER DEVELOPED ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUE
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT NEARS THE COAST...EVENTUALLY MOVING
OFFSHORE MON MORNING NEAR OR AFTER SUNRISE. 32/EE

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MOB





000
FXUS64 KMOB 282250 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
550 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...SEE UPDATED INFORMATION BELOW.

&&

.UPDATE...UPDATED EARLIER TO REDUCE POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS...THEN GO WITH DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE LATE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.  MADE OTHER MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. /29

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN IFR CEILING AND FOG DEVELOPING
DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS TO SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEGRADE OVERNIGHT TO LIFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CEILINGS
AND FOG FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...THEN IMPROVE TO A MVFR CEILING BY MID
FRIDAY MORNING. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS BECOME VARIABLE TONIGHT...WITH
A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WIND DEVELOPING FRIDAY MORNING. /29

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016/

NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH FRIDAY/...AFTER AN ACTIVE MORNING OF
THUNDERSTORMS CONDITIONS ARE BEGINNING IMPROVE ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE WINDS IN THE 30 TO 40 KNOT RANGE
SUSTAINED...MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE COMPLEX OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS...HAVE BEGIN TO DIMINISH QUICKLY AS THE BULK OF THE
HEAVIER CONVECTION CONTINUES TO MOVE WELL OFFSHORE. CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPROVE THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON AS A SHARP UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF REGION AND SOUTHEAST CONUS THROUGH FRI
AFTERNOON...SLOWLY SHIFTING EASTWARD INTO THE WEEKEND...IN RESPONSE
TO DEEP UPPER TROF OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
FOR TONIGHT SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR MOSTLY OVER WESTERN AND
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
CONTINUING FURTHER SOUTH ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST AND OFFSHORE. FOR
FRI MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW ANOTHER MID LEVEL
IMPULSE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST SHIFTING NE ACROSS
LOWER LA AND INTO MS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE PROVIDING
SOME WEAK FORCING OR LIFT TO SUPPORT SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS
ACROSS WESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY FRI SHIFTING INLAND
OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY AFTERNOON.
WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY AND FORCING THUNDERSTORMS THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW TO NIL.

AS FOR TEMPS WILL USE A BLEND OF ALL THE MOS GUIDANCE MOSTLY DUE TO
CLOUDS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST AND BETTER CONSISTENCY WITH SURROUNDING
WFOS. TONIGHTS LOWS WILL BE A TAD ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH LOWS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE LOWER 70S
CLOSER TO THE COAST. HIGHS FRI WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE RANGING FROM THE
MID TO UPPER 80S INLAND AND THE LOWER 80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
32/EE

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...SHORTWAVE RIDGING
WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...A WARM AND MOIST ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER AND STORMS POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING PEAK
HEATING. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS AN UPPER
TROUGH EJECTS INTO THE MIDWESTERN STATES WITH AN ASSOCIATED SFC LOW
AND TRAILING FRONT MOVING EASTWARD. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED SUNDAY. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED...HOWEVER LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S
INLAND TO AROUND 70 ALONG THE COAST. /13

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...THE FRONT STALLS NEAR THE
COAST MONDAY WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN ON TUESDAY AS A FAST
MOVING SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WITH HIGH END SCATTERED
COVERAGES EXPECTED. COVERAGE WILL AGAIN BE MAXIMIZED DURING THE PEAK
HEATING PERIOD. THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST WEDNESDAY WITH A DRIER AND
COOLER AIRMASS MOVING INTO THE AREA FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. /13

MARINE...A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL BECOME
REESTABLISHED THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY AS A LARGE
COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO EXIT OFF TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS WILL OCCUR NEAR THE COAST AND OVER
INLAND BAYS AND SOUNDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS
THROUGH SATURDAY DUE TO AFTERNOON HEATING AND LOCAL SEABREEZE
EFFECTS. A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME BETTER DEVELOPED ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUE
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT NEARS THE COAST...EVENTUALLY MOVING
OFFSHORE MON MORNING NEAR OR AFTER SUNRISE. 32/EE

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MOB





000
FXUS64 KMOB 282109
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
409 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH FRIDAY/...AFTER AN ACTIVE MORNING OF
THUNDERSTORMS CONDITIONS ARE BEGINNING IMPROVE ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE WINDS IN THE 30 TO 40 KNOT RANGE
SUSTAINED...MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE COMPLEX OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS...HAVE BEGIN TO DIMINISH QUICKLY AS THE BULK OF THE
HEAVIER CONVECTION CONTINUES TO MOVE WELL OFFSHORE. CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPROVE THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON AS A SHARP UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF REGION AND SOUTHEAST CONUS THROUGH FRI
AFTERNOON...SLOWLY SHIFTING EASTWARD INTO THE WEEKEND...IN RESPONSE
TO DEEP UPPER TROF OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
FOR TONIGHT SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR MOSTLY OVER WESTERN AND
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
CONTINUING FURTHER SOUTH ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST AND OFFSHORE. FOR
FRI MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW ANOTHER MID LEVEL
IMPULSE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST SHIFTING NE ACROSS
LOWER LA AND INTO MS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE PROVIDING
SOME WEAK FORCING OR LIFT TO SUPPORT SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS
ACROSS WESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY FRI SHIFTING INLAND
OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY AFTERNOON.
WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY AND FORCING THUNDERSTORMS THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW TO NIL.

AS FOR TEMPS WILL USE A BLEND OF ALL THE MOS GUIDANCE MOSTLY DUE TO
CLOUDS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST AND BETTER CONSISTENCY WITH SURROUNDING
WFOS. TONIGHTS LOWS WILL BE A TAD ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH LOWS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE LOWER 70S
CLOSER TO THE COAST. HIGHS FRI WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE RANGING FROM THE
MID TO UPPER 80S INLAND AND THE LOWER 80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
32/EE


.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...SHORTWAVE RIDGING
WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...A WARM AND MOIST ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER AND STORMS POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING PEAK
HEATING. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS AN UPPER
TROUGH EJECTS INTO THE MIDWESTERN STATES WITH AN ASSOCIATED SFC LOW
AND TRAILING FRONT MOVING EASTWARD. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED SUNDAY. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED...HOWEVER LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S
INLAND TO AROUND 70 ALONG THE COAST. /13


.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...THE FRONT STALLS NEAR THE
COAST MONDAY WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN ON TUESDAY AS A FAST
MOVING SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WITH HIGH END SCATTERED
COVERAGES EXPECTED. COVERAGE WILL AGAIN BE MAXIMIZED DURING THE PEAK
HEATING PERIOD. THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST WEDNESDAY WITH A DRIER AND
COOLER AIRMASS MOVING INTO THE AREA FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. /13

&&

.MARINE...A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL BECOME
REESTABLISHED THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY AS A LARGE
COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO EXIT OFF TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS WILL OCCUR NEAR THE COAST AND OVER
INLAND BAYS AND SOUNDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS
THROUGH SATURDAY DUE TO AFTERNOON HEATING AND LOCAL SEABREEZE
EFFECTS. A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME BETTER DEVELOPED ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUE
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT NEARS THE COAST...EVENTUALLY MOVING
OFFSHORE MON MORNING NEAR OR AFTER SUNRISE. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      69  85  69  84 /  20  20  10  20
PENSACOLA   72  83  71  82 /  20  10  10  10
DESTIN      73  81  72  80 /  20  20  10  10
EVERGREEN   66  88  67  86 /  30  30  10  20
WAYNESBORO  67  87  66  83 /  20  30  10  30
CAMDEN      67  87  67  84 /  20  30  10  20
CRESTVIEW   69  88  68  86 /  30  20  10  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MOB





000
FXUS64 KMOB 281746 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1246 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z ISSUANCE...MOSTLY IFR TO MVFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES THROUGH
29.12Z FOLLOWED BY MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 29.18Z. EXPECT
LOWER CIGS IN AND AROUND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON TAPERING OFF THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
LOWER CIGS AND VISIBILITIES LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRI MORNING.
WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
HIGHER GUSTS NEAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FILLING IN MOSTLY FROM
THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING...DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 5 KNOTS LATE THIS
EVENING THROUGH EARLY FRI MORNING...INCREASING TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS BY
MID MORNING CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY FRI AFTERNOON. 32/EE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 714 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE...CEILINGS WILL LOWER THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS
A CLUSTER OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI MOVES EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION.
THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE MOBILE METRO AREA BETWEEN
13Z AND 15Z WITH IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES...ALONG WITH FREQUENT
LIGHTNING. BRIEF PERIODS OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL CLOUD RESULT IN
VISIBILITIES IN THE VLIFR CATEGORY IN THAT TIME FRAME. SURFACE WINDS
ARE DIFFICULT TO FORECAST AS NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ARE EXPECTED
TO IMPACT THE AREA...BUT SOUTH WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL
PRIOR TO THE STORMS AND BECOME VARIABLE AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS AT TIMES.
THIS CLUSTER OF STORMS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE PENSACOLA
METRO AREA...MAINLY BETWEEN 16Z AND 18Z. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN OCCUR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS
BUT NOT BE AS STRONG...WITH MVFR CEILINGS AND VFR TO BRIEF MVFR
VISIBILITIES. /22

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 434 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016/

NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSES PASSING OVER THE NORTHERN EDGE THE GULF OF MEXICO UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL TRIGGER NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF
THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES. MEANWHILE A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL WEAKEN AS A
WEAKENING SURFACE LOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST MOVES QUICKLY EASTWARD.

THE BEST CHANCE OF HEAVY RAIN TODAY WILL OCCUR FROM SUNRISE THROUGH
THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
PROLIFIC RAIN RATE PRODUCERS...CAPABLE OF HOURLY RAINFALL RATES OF
TWO TO FIVE INCHES. WHILE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS WILL GENERALLY
BE FROM ONE-HALF TO ONE INCH...LOCALIZED AREAS AFFECTED BY SEVERAL
OF THESE PASSING THUNDERSTORMS COULD RECEIVE RAINFALL TOTALS OF TWO
TO FOUR INCHES RESULTING MAINLY IN NUISANCE FLOODING...ALTHOUGH AN
ISOLATED INCIDENCE OF FLASH FLOODING WILL DEFINITELY BE POSSIBLE.
GUSTY THUNDERSTORM SURFACE WINDS UP TO 40 MPH WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 80S...WITH UPPER 70S
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM
65 TO 69 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...WITH LOWER 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST. /22

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL
TROF AXIS OVER THE FOUR CORNERS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST FRIDAY
MORNING TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT WHILE PIVOTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ON SATURDAY. THIS CAUSES A NET AMPLIFICATION OF A
DOWNSTREAM HIGH LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST BY SATURDAY. IN
THE LOWER LEVELS...LOOK TO REMAIN IN A LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW
BETWEEN A WEAK PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE EAST AND LOWER PRESSURES OVER
THE PLAINS. WEAK SURFACE FRONT EXTENDS EASTWARD FROM NORTHERN LOUISIANA
TO CENTRAL GEORGIA ON FRIDAY. SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...A NARROW
STRIP OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE (PWATS 1.3 TO 1.5 INCHES) IS ALIGNED
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST ON FRIDAY WHICH PROGRESSES NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY. THE PASSAGE OF MID LEVEL IMPULSES
EMBEDDED IN THE EVOLVING HIGH LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW INTERACTS WITH
THIS MOISTURE AND AS THE AIRMASS DESTABILIZES THROUGH THE COURSE OF
THE DAY WHILE FLOW OFF THE GULF ASCENDS TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL
ZONE...CONVECTIVE INITIATION REDEVELOPS FRIDAY. RAIN CHANCES DECREASE
THROUGH THE NIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOSS OF INSTABILITY. SHORT RANGE
ENSEMBLES INDICATE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FOG PROBABILITIES LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT...SO WILL MAKE A MENTION OF THIS IN THE MORNING PACKAGE.
FOR SATURDAY...WITH THE HIGH LEVEL RIDGE POSITIONED OVER THE EASTERN
US...THE CENTRAL GULF COAST SEES MORE OF A HIGH LEVEL DIFFLUENT
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ATOP THE AREA. WITH UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK
DYNAMICS EXPANDING EAST NORTHEAST OUT OF TEXAS...AVAILABILITY OF DEEP
MOISTURE AND DECREASING STABILITY...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MAINLY
AFTERNOON STORMS IS IN THE FORECAST OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STRONG STORMS AT TIMES
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FREQUENT LIGHTNING...BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS. AS FAR AS SEVERE WEATHER BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...WEAK WIND PROFILES AND 0-3 KM BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES LESS
THAN 20 KNOTS WILL KEEP THE THREAT VERY ISOLATED. HIGHS FORECAST IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S NORTH OF THE COAST WITH LOWER 80S AT THE
BEACHES. OVERNIGHT LOWS MID TO UPPER 60S INTERIOR TO LOWER 70S COAST.
/10

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...AN ACTIVE HIGH LEVEL WESTERLY
FLOW KEEPS THE WEATHER PATTERN UNSETTLED FROM TIME TO TIME SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. ANOTHER FEATURE THAT COMPLICATES THE RAINFALL
FORECAST IN THE OUTLOOK IS A SLOWLY APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WHICH BEGINS TO HANG UP ACROSS THE COAST BY TUESDAY. THE LATEST
FORECAST CALLS FOR THE FRONT TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA BY
WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL BEGIN TO REDUCE THE RAIN CHANCES. LITTLE
CHANGE IN HIGHS AND LOWS THROUGH MONDAY. HIGHS TRENDING A FEW DEGREES
BELOW CLIMATOLOGY BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS COULD DIP DOWN INTO THE UPPER HALF OF THE 50S OVER THE
INTERIOR BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. /10

MARINE...A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ACROSS
THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL REMAIN LARGELY INTACT AS A PAIR OF
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREAS PASS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. A LIGHT TO
OCCASIONAL MODERATE ONSHORE WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY.
/22

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MOB





000
FXUS64 KMOB 281214 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
714 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE...CEILINGS WILL LOWER THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS
A CLUSTER OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI MOVES EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION.
THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE MOBILE METRO AREA BETWEEN
13Z AND 15Z WITH IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES...ALONG WITH FREQUENT
LIGHTNING. BRIEF PERIODS OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL CLOUD RESULT IN
VISIBILITIES IN THE VLIFR CATEGORY IN THAT TIME FRAME. SURFACE WINDS
ARE DIFFICULT TO FORECAST AS NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ARE EXPECTED
TO IMPACT THE AREA...BUT SOUTH WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL
PRIOR TO THE STORMS AND BECOME VARIABLE AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS AT TIMES.
THIS CLUSTER OF STORMS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE PENSACOLA
METRO AREA...MAINLY BETWEEN 16Z AND 18Z. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN OCCUR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS
BUT NOT BE AS STRONG...WITH MVFR CEILINGS AND VFR TO BRIEF MVFR
VISIBILITIES. /22

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 434 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016/

NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSES PASSING OVER THE NORTHERN EDGE THE GULF OF MEXICO UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL TRIGGER NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF
THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES. MEANWHILE A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL WEAKEN AS A
WEAKENING SURFACE LOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST MOVES QUICKLY EASTWARD.

THE BEST CHANCE OF HEAVY RAIN TODAY WILL OCCUR FROM SUNRISE THROUGH
THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
PROLIFIC RAIN RATE PRODUCERS...CAPABLE OF HOURLY RAINFALL RATES OF
TWO TO FIVE INCHES. WHILE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS WILL GENERALLY
BE FROM ONE-HALF TO ONE INCH...LOCALIZED AREAS AFFECTED BY SEVERAL
OF THESE PASSING THUNDERSTORMS COULD RECEIVE RAINFALL TOTALS OF TWO
TO FOUR INCHES RESULTING MAINLY IN NUISANCE FLOODING...ALTHOUGH AN
ISOLATED INCIDENCE OF FLASH FLOODING WILL DEFINITELY BE POSSIBLE.
GUSTY THUNDERSTORM SURFACE WINDS UP TO 40 MPH WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 80S...WITH UPPER 70S
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM
65 TO 69 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...WITH LOWER 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST. /22

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL
TROF AXIS OVER THE FOUR CORNERS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST FRIDAY
MORNING TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT WHILE PIVOTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ON SATURDAY. THIS CAUSES A NET AMPLIFICATION OF A
DOWNSTREAM HIGH LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST BY SATURDAY. IN
THE LOWER LEVELS...LOOK TO REMAIN IN A LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW
BETWEEN A WEAK PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE EAST AND LOWER PRESSURES OVER
THE PLAINS. WEAK SURFACE FRONT EXTENDS EASTWARD FROM NORTHERN LOUISIANA
TO CENTRAL GEORGIA ON FRIDAY. SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...A NARROW
STRIP OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE (PWATS 1.3 TO 1.5 INCHES) IS ALIGNED
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST ON FRIDAY WHICH PROGRESSES NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY. THE PASSAGE OF MID LEVEL IMPULSES
EMBEDDED IN THE EVOLVING HIGH LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW INTERACTS WITH
THIS MOISTURE AND AS THE AIRMASS DESTABILIZES THROUGH THE COURSE OF
THE DAY WHILE FLOW OFF THE GULF ASCENDS TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL
ZONE...CONVECTIVE INITIATION REDEVELOPS FRIDAY. RAIN CHANCES DECREASE
THROUGH THE NIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOSS OF INSTABILITY. SHORT RANGE
ENSEMBLES INDICATE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FOG PROBABILITIES LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT...SO WILL MAKE A MENTION OF THIS IN THE MORNING PACKAGE.
FOR SATURDAY...WITH THE HIGH LEVEL RIDGE POSITIONED OVER THE EASTERN
US...THE CENTRAL GULF COAST SEES MORE OF A HIGH LEVEL DIFFLUENT
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ATOP THE AREA. WITH UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK
DYNAMICS EXPANDING EAST NORTHEAST OUT OF TEXAS...AVAILABILITY OF DEEP
MOISTURE AND DECREASING STABILITY...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MAINLY
AFTERNOON STORMS IS IN THE FORECAST OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STRONG STORMS AT TIMES
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FREQUENT LIGHTNING...BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS. AS FAR AS SEVERE WEATHER BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...WEAK WIND PROFILES AND 0-3 KM BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES LESS
THAN 20 KNOTS WILL KEEP THE THREAT VERY ISOLATED. HIGHS FORECAST IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S NORTH OF THE COAST WITH LOWER 80S AT THE
BEACHES. OVERNIGHT LOWS MID TO UPPER 60S INTERIOR TO LOWER 70S COAST.
/10

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...AN ACTIVE HIGH LEVEL WESTERLY
FLOW KEEPS THE WEATHER PATTERN UNSETTLED FROM TIME TO TIME SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. ANOTHER FEATURE THAT COMPLICATES THE RAINFALL
FORECAST IN THE OUTLOOK IS A SLOWLY APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WHICH BEGINS TO HANG UP ACROSS THE COAST BY TUESDAY. THE LATEST
FORECAST CALLS FOR THE FRONT TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA BY
WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL BEGIN TO REDUCE THE RAIN CHANCES. LITTLE
CHANGE IN HIGHS AND LOWS THROUGH MONDAY. HIGHS TRENDING A FEW DEGREES
BELOW CLIMATOLOGY BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS COULD DIP DOWN INTO THE UPPER HALF OF THE 50S OVER THE
INTERIOR BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. /10

MARINE...A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ACROSS
THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL REMAIN LARGELY INTACT AS A PAIR OF
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREAS PASS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. A LIGHT TO
OCCASIONAL MODERATE ONSHORE WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY.
/22

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MOB





000
FXUS64 KMOB 280934
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
434 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSES PASSING OVER THE NORTHERN EDGE THE GULF OF MEXICO UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL TRIGGER NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF
THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES. MEANWHILE A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL WEAKEN AS A
WEAKENING SURFACE LOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST MOVES QUICKLY EASTWARD.

THE BEST CHANCE OF HEAVY RAIN TODAY WILL OCCUR FROM SUNRISE THROUGH
THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
PROLIFIC RAIN RATE PRODUCERS...CAPABLE OF HOURLY RAINFALL RATES OF
TWO TO FIVE INCHES. WHILE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS WILL GENERALLY
BE FROM ONE-HALF TO ONE INCH...LOCALIZED AREAS AFFECTED BY SEVERAL
OF THESE PASSING THUNDERSTORMS COULD RECEIVE RAINFALL TOTALS OF TWO
TO FOUR INCHES RESULTING MAINLY IN NUISANCE FLOODING...ALTHOUGH AN
ISOLATED INCIDENCE OF FLASH FLOODING WILL DEFINITELY BE POSSIBLE.
GUSTY THUNDERSTORM SURFACE WINDS UP TO 40 MPH WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 80S...WITH UPPER 70S
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM
65 TO 69 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...WITH LOWER 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST. /22

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL
TROF AXIS OVER THE FOUR CORNERS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST FRIDAY
MORNING TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT WHILE PIVOTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ON SATURDAY. THIS CAUSES A NET AMPLIFICATION OF A
DOWNSTREAM HIGH LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST BY SATURDAY. IN
THE LOWER LEVELS...LOOK TO REMAIN IN A LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW
BETWEEN A WEAK PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE EAST AND LOWER PRESSURES OVER
THE PLAINS. WEAK SURFACE FRONT EXTENDS EASTWARD FROM NORTHERN LOUISIANA
TO CENTRAL GEORGIA ON FRIDAY. SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...A NARROW
STRIP OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE (PWATS 1.3 TO 1.5 INCHES) IS ALIGNED
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST ON FRIDAY WHICH PROGRESSES NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY. THE PASSAGE OF MID LEVEL IMPULSES
EMBEDDED IN THE EVOLVING HIGH LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW INTERACTS WITH
THIS MOISTURE AND AS THE AIRMASS DESTABILIZES THROUGH THE COURSE OF
THE DAY WHILE FLOW OFF THE GULF ASCENDS TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL
ZONE...CONVECTIVE INITIATION REDEVELOPS FRIDAY. RAIN CHANCES DECREASE
THROUGH THE NIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOSS OF INSTABILITY. SHORT RANGE
ENSEMBLES INDICATE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FOG PROBABILITIES LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT...SO WILL MAKE A MENTION OF THIS IN THE MORNING PACKAGE.
FOR SATURDAY...WITH THE HIGH LEVEL RIDGE POSITIONED OVER THE EASTERN
US...THE CENTRAL GULF COAST SEES MORE OF A HIGH LEVEL DIFFLUENT
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ATOP THE AREA. WITH UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK
DYNAMICS EXPANDING EAST NORTHEAST OUT OF TEXAS...AVAILABILITY OF DEEP
MOISTURE AND DECREASING STABILITY...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MAINLY
AFTERNOON STORMS IS IN THE FORECAST OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STRONG STORMS AT TIMES
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FREQUENT LIGHTNING...BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS. AS FAR AS SEVERE WEATHER BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...WEAK WIND PROFILES AND 0-3 KM BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES LESS
THAN 20 KNOTS WILL KEEP THE THREAT VERY ISOLATED. HIGHS FORECAST IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S NORTH OF THE COAST WITH LOWER 80S AT THE
BEACHES. OVERNIGHT LOWS MID TO UPPER 60S INTERIOR TO LOWER 70S COAST.
/10

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...AN ACTIVE HIGH LEVEL WESTERLY
FLOW KEEPS THE WEATHER PATTERN UNSETTLED FROM TIME TO TIME SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. ANOTHER FEATURE THAT COMPLICATES THE RAINFALL
FORECAST IN THE OUTLOOK IS A SLOWLY APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WHICH BEGINS TO HANG UP ACROSS THE COAST BY TUESDAY. THE LATEST
FORECAST CALLS FOR THE FRONT TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA BY
WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL BEGIN TO REDUCE THE RAIN CHANCES. LITTLE
CHANGE IN HIGHS AND LOWS THROUGH MONDAY. HIGHS TRENDING A FEW DEGREES
BELOW CLIMATOLOGY BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS COULD DIP DOWN INTO THE UPPER HALF OF THE 50S OVER THE
INTERIOR BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. /10

&&

.MARINE...A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ACROSS
THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL REMAIN LARGELY INTACT AS A PAIR OF
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREAS PASS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. A LIGHT TO
OCCASIONAL MODERATE ONSHORE WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY.
/22

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      82  68  87  68 /  70  20  10  10
PENSACOLA   80  71  85  71 /  60  20  10  10
DESTIN      79  73  82  72 /  60  20  10  10
EVERGREEN   82  65  89  66 /  70  30  20  10
WAYNESBORO  83  65  88  65 /  60  20  30  10
CAMDEN      82  66  88  66 /  60  20  30  10
CRESTVIEW   83  67  89  66 /  60  30  20  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MOB





000
FXUS64 KMOB 280502
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1202 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
28/06Z ISSUANCE...SKIES HAVE CLEARED OVER MUCH OF THE FCST AREA LATE
THIS EVENING...EXCEPT FOR THINK HIGH CLOUDS. DUE TO THE RAINFALL OVER
MOST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...COMBINED
WITH HE SOUTHERLY LOLVL FLOW...WILL LIKELY SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS
(POSSIBLY WITH CEILINGS AS LOW AS 700 FEET) ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA
TONIGHT. SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE AS WELL...ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE COAST...BUT SFC VISIBILITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO DROP ANY LOWER
THAN AROUND 4SM. HIRES MODELS INDICATE POSSIBILITY OF REDEVELOPMENT
OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE COAST LATER
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AFTER ABOUT 28/09Z ALTHOUGH THIS IS UNCERTAIN
BASED ON LATEST TRENDS. HAVE ADDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR THE 09Z-13Z
TIMEFRAME. MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY
ON THURSDAY. 12/DS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 928 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
28/00Z ISSUANCE...SKIES ARE CLEARING OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FCST AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE MCS THAT MOVED ACROSS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT MID/HIGH LEVEL OVERCAST
CEILINGS REMAIN OVER EASTERN HALF. DUE TO THE RAINFALL OVER MOST OF
THE AREA AND WITH THE SOUTHERLY LOLVL FLOW...WILL LIKELY SEE SOME
LOW CLOUDS (POSSIBLY WITH CEILINGS AS LOW AS 700 FEET) ACROSS PARTS
OF THE AREA TONIGHT. SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE AS
WELL...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST...BUT SFC VISIBILITY IS NOT EXPECTED
TO DROP ANY LOWER THAN AROUND 4SM. 12/DS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016/

NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH THURSDAY/...A DIFFLUENT LEVEL FLOW
PATTERN PERSISTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION THIS AFTERNOON
BETWEEN ZONAL FLOW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND A DEEP UPPER LEVEL
LOW LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS KS/NE. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING AS EXPECTED ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MS AND MUCH OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL AL WITHIN THIS
REGIME. THE LATEST SPC MESOSCALE ANALYSIS SHOWS AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS
IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH MLCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM
1000-1500 J/KG OVER INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MS AND SOUTHWEST AL...TO 2000-
2500 NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 30-40
KNOTS ARE PRIMARILY LOCATED OVER SOUTHEAST MS AND INTERIOR SOUTHWEST
AL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH WEAKER SHEAR OVER THE NORTHWEST FL
PANHANDLE AND SOUTH CENTRAL AL. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EASTWARD THROUGH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AS EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE IMPULSES MOVE EASTWARD WITHIN THE
MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. A FEW STRONG OR PERHAPS A MARGINALLY
SEVERE STORM WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE CWFA
GIVEN THE MLCAPE VALUES...BUT IT APPEARS THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH BY EARLY EVENING.

A MOIST ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WE MAY EXPERIENCE A BREAK IN CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY THIS EVENING AFTER REMNANT CONVECTION DIMINISHES...BUT WILL
AT LEAST LEAVE IN LOW CHANCE POPS FOR NOW GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR
LINGERING ACTIVITY INTO THE EVENING HOURS UNDERNEATH MOIST WESTERLY
FLOW. SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS THEN IN AGREEMENT THAT
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT WITHIN THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AXIS
SINKING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE CWFA. THE HRRR HAS BEEN SIGNALING
POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AFTER 2-3 AM OVER SOUTHEAST
MS...WITH PERHAPS DEVELOPMENT INTO SOUTHWEST AL PRIOR TO SUNRISE.
WILL MONITOR FOR A FEW LOCALLY STRONG STORMS OVERNIGHT GIVEN MLCAPE
VALUES REMAINING AROUND 1000-2000 J/KG ALONG WITH 25-35 KNOTS OF
DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT STILL LOOKS TO REMAIN
LIMITED/MARGINAL OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE MILD IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S INLAND TO LOWER 70S NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

WEAK BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTHWARD THURSDAY AND WILL BECOME
ORIENTED NEAR THE COAST BY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE ALONG THE AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY...AND WILL MAINTAIN A
40-50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
BETTER INSTABILITY MAY SET UP OVER INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MS AND
SOUTHWEST AL THURSDAY...WITH MLCAPE VALUES 2000-3000 J/KG PER THE
LATEST NAM-12...WITH VALUES MUCH LOWER NEAR THE COAST WHERE BETTER
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE MAY BE LOCATED. DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS 30-35
KNOTS FOR THE MOST PART. A FEW STRONG OR PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SEVERE
STORM OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT THE OVERALL SEVERE RISK SHOULD
REMAIN MARGINAL. WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS.
HIGHS SHOULD OTHERWISE RANGE FROM 80-85. /21

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...A WEAK FRONT
WILL STALL ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS THURSDAY EVENING BEFORE THE
FRONT MOVES NORTHWARD FRIDAY AS ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. THE WEAK BOUNDARY IN THE AREA COMBINED WITH MOISTURE AND
HEATING WILL MAINTAIN ISOLATED TO LOW END SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SATURDAY WILL BE DRIER AS SOME DRIER AIR MOVES IN AND
UPPER RIDGING DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S INLAND TO LOW
70S ALONG THE COAST. /13

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...THE NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY BRINGING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. ANOTHER FRONT TRIES TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK...HOWEVER AS IS THE CASE
LATE IN THE SPRING...IT WILL LIKELY STALL ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN CHANCES FOR SCATTERED...MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
/13

MARINE...A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AS A SURFACE LOW
FORMING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS PASSES WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. A
LIGHT TO OCCASIONAL MODERATE ONSHORE WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. /22

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MOB





000
FXUS64 KMOB 280228
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
928 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
28/00Z ISSUANCE...SKIES ARE CLEARING OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FCST AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE MCS THAT MOVED ACROSS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT MID/HIGH LEVEL OVERCAST
CEILINGS REMAIN OVER EASTERN HALF. DUE TO THE RAINFALL OVER MOST OF
THE AREA AND WITH THE SOUTHERLY LOLVL FLOW...WILL LIKELY SEE SOME
LOW CLOUDS (POSSIBLY WITH CEILINGS AS LOW AS 700 FEET) ACROSS PARTS
OF THE AREA TONIGHT. SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE AS
WELL...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST...BUT SFC VISIBILITY IS NOT EXPECTED
TO DROP ANY LOWER THAN AROUND 4SM. 12/DS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016/

NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH THURSDAY/...A DIFFLUENT LEVEL FLOW
PATTERN PERSISTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION THIS AFTERNOON
BETWEEN ZONAL FLOW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND A DEEP UPPER LEVEL
LOW LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS KS/NE. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING AS EXPECTED ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MS AND MUCH OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL AL WITHIN THIS
REGIME. THE LATEST SPC MESOSCALE ANALYSIS SHOWS AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS
IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH MLCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM
1000-1500 J/KG OVER INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MS AND SOUTHWEST AL...TO 2000-
2500 NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 30-40
KNOTS ARE PRIMARILY LOCATED OVER SOUTHEAST MS AND INTERIOR SOUTHWEST
AL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH WEAKER SHEAR OVER THE NORTHWEST FL
PANHANDLE AND SOUTH CENTRAL AL. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EASTWARD THROUGH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AS EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE IMPULSES MOVE EASTWARD WITHIN THE
MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. A FEW STRONG OR PERHAPS A MARGINALLY
SEVERE STORM WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE CWFA
GIVEN THE MLCAPE VALUES...BUT IT APPEARS THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH BY EARLY EVENING.

A MOIST ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WE MAY EXPERIENCE A BREAK IN CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY THIS EVENING AFTER REMNANT CONVECTION DIMINISHES...BUT WILL
AT LEAST LEAVE IN LOW CHANCE POPS FOR NOW GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR
LINGERING ACTIVITY INTO THE EVENING HOURS UNDERNEATH MOIST WESTERLY
FLOW. SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS THEN IN AGREEMENT THAT
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT WITHIN THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AXIS
SINKING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE CWFA. THE HRRR HAS BEEN SIGNALING
POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AFTER 2-3 AM OVER SOUTHEAST
MS...WITH PERHAPS DEVELOPMENT INTO SOUTHWEST AL PRIOR TO SUNRISE.
WILL MONITOR FOR A FEW LOCALLY STRONG STORMS OVERNIGHT GIVEN MLCAPE
VALUES REMAINING AROUND 1000-2000 J/KG ALONG WITH 25-35 KNOTS OF
DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT STILL LOOKS TO REMAIN
LIMITED/MARGINAL OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE MILD IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S INLAND TO LOWER 70S NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

WEAK BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTHWARD THURSDAY AND WILL BECOME
ORIENTED NEAR THE COAST BY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE ALONG THE AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY...AND WILL MAINTAIN A
40-50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
BETTER INSTABILITY MAY SET UP OVER INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MS AND
SOUTHWEST AL THURSDAY...WITH MLCAPE VALUES 2000-3000 J/KG PER THE
LATEST NAM-12...WITH VALUES MUCH LOWER NEAR THE COAST WHERE BETTER
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE MAY BE LOCATED. DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS 30-35
KNOTS FOR THE MOST PART. A FEW STRONG OR PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SEVERE
STORM OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT THE OVERALL SEVERE RISK SHOULD
REMAIN MARGINAL. WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS.
HIGHS SHOULD OTHERWISE RANGE FROM 80-85. /21

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...A WEAK FRONT
WILL STALL ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS THURSDAY EVENING BEFORE THE
FRONT MOVES NORTHWARD FRIDAY AS ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. THE WEAK BOUNDARY IN THE AREA COMBINED WITH MOISTURE AND
HEATING WILL MAINTAIN ISOLATED TO LOW END SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SATURDAY WILL BE DRIER AS SOME DRIER AIR MOVES IN AND
UPPER RIDGING DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S INLAND TO LOW
70S ALONG THE COAST. /13

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...THE NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY BRINGING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. ANOTHER FRONT TRIES TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK...HOWEVER AS IS THE CASE
LATE IN THE SPRING...IT WILL LIKELY STALL ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN CHANCES FOR SCATTERED...MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
/13

MARINE...A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AS A SURFACE LOW
FORMING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS PASSES WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. A
LIGHT TO OCCASIONAL MODERATE ONSHORE WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. /22

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MOB





000
FXUS64 KMOB 280228
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
928 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
28/00Z ISSUANCE...SKIES ARE CLEARING OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FCST AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE MCS THAT MOVED ACROSS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT MID/HIGH LEVEL OVERCAST
CEILINGS REMAIN OVER EASTERN HALF. DUE TO THE RAINFALL OVER MOST OF
THE AREA AND WITH THE SOUTHERLY LOLVL FLOW...WILL LIKELY SEE SOME
LOW CLOUDS (POSSIBLY WITH CEILINGS AS LOW AS 700 FEET) ACROSS PARTS
OF THE AREA TONIGHT. SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE AS
WELL...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST...BUT SFC VISIBILITY IS NOT EXPECTED
TO DROP ANY LOWER THAN AROUND 4SM. 12/DS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016/

NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH THURSDAY/...A DIFFLUENT LEVEL FLOW
PATTERN PERSISTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION THIS AFTERNOON
BETWEEN ZONAL FLOW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND A DEEP UPPER LEVEL
LOW LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS KS/NE. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING AS EXPECTED ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MS AND MUCH OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL AL WITHIN THIS
REGIME. THE LATEST SPC MESOSCALE ANALYSIS SHOWS AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS
IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH MLCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM
1000-1500 J/KG OVER INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MS AND SOUTHWEST AL...TO 2000-
2500 NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 30-40
KNOTS ARE PRIMARILY LOCATED OVER SOUTHEAST MS AND INTERIOR SOUTHWEST
AL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH WEAKER SHEAR OVER THE NORTHWEST FL
PANHANDLE AND SOUTH CENTRAL AL. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EASTWARD THROUGH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AS EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE IMPULSES MOVE EASTWARD WITHIN THE
MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. A FEW STRONG OR PERHAPS A MARGINALLY
SEVERE STORM WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE CWFA
GIVEN THE MLCAPE VALUES...BUT IT APPEARS THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH BY EARLY EVENING.

A MOIST ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WE MAY EXPERIENCE A BREAK IN CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY THIS EVENING AFTER REMNANT CONVECTION DIMINISHES...BUT WILL
AT LEAST LEAVE IN LOW CHANCE POPS FOR NOW GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR
LINGERING ACTIVITY INTO THE EVENING HOURS UNDERNEATH MOIST WESTERLY
FLOW. SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS THEN IN AGREEMENT THAT
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT WITHIN THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AXIS
SINKING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE CWFA. THE HRRR HAS BEEN SIGNALING
POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AFTER 2-3 AM OVER SOUTHEAST
MS...WITH PERHAPS DEVELOPMENT INTO SOUTHWEST AL PRIOR TO SUNRISE.
WILL MONITOR FOR A FEW LOCALLY STRONG STORMS OVERNIGHT GIVEN MLCAPE
VALUES REMAINING AROUND 1000-2000 J/KG ALONG WITH 25-35 KNOTS OF
DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT STILL LOOKS TO REMAIN
LIMITED/MARGINAL OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE MILD IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S INLAND TO LOWER 70S NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

WEAK BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTHWARD THURSDAY AND WILL BECOME
ORIENTED NEAR THE COAST BY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE ALONG THE AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY...AND WILL MAINTAIN A
40-50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
BETTER INSTABILITY MAY SET UP OVER INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MS AND
SOUTHWEST AL THURSDAY...WITH MLCAPE VALUES 2000-3000 J/KG PER THE
LATEST NAM-12...WITH VALUES MUCH LOWER NEAR THE COAST WHERE BETTER
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE MAY BE LOCATED. DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS 30-35
KNOTS FOR THE MOST PART. A FEW STRONG OR PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SEVERE
STORM OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT THE OVERALL SEVERE RISK SHOULD
REMAIN MARGINAL. WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS.
HIGHS SHOULD OTHERWISE RANGE FROM 80-85. /21

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...A WEAK FRONT
WILL STALL ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS THURSDAY EVENING BEFORE THE
FRONT MOVES NORTHWARD FRIDAY AS ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. THE WEAK BOUNDARY IN THE AREA COMBINED WITH MOISTURE AND
HEATING WILL MAINTAIN ISOLATED TO LOW END SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SATURDAY WILL BE DRIER AS SOME DRIER AIR MOVES IN AND
UPPER RIDGING DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S INLAND TO LOW
70S ALONG THE COAST. /13

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...THE NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY BRINGING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. ANOTHER FRONT TRIES TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK...HOWEVER AS IS THE CASE
LATE IN THE SPRING...IT WILL LIKELY STALL ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN CHANCES FOR SCATTERED...MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
/13

MARINE...A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AS A SURFACE LOW
FORMING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS PASSES WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. A
LIGHT TO OCCASIONAL MODERATE ONSHORE WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. /22

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MOB





000
FXUS64 KMOB 272116
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
416 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH THURSDAY/...A DIFFLUENT LEVEL FLOW
PATTERN PERSISTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION THIS AFTERNOON
BETWEEN ZONAL FLOW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND A DEEP UPPER LEVEL
LOW LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS KS/NE. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING AS EXPECTED ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MS AND MUCH OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL AL WITHIN THIS
REGIME. THE LATEST SPC MESOSCALE ANALYSIS SHOWS AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS
IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH MLCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM
1000-1500 J/KG OVER INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MS AND SOUTHWEST AL...TO 2000-
2500 NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 30-40
KNOTS ARE PRIMARILY LOCATED OVER SOUTHEAST MS AND INTERIOR SOUTHWEST
AL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH WEAKER SHEAR OVER THE NORTHWEST FL
PANHANDLE AND SOUTH CENTRAL AL. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EASTWARD THROUGH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AS EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE IMPULSES MOVE EASTWARD WITHIN THE
MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. A FEW STRONG OR PERHAPS A MARGINALLY
SEVERE STORM WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE CWFA
GIVEN THE MLCAPE VALUES...BUT IT APPEARS THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH BY EARLY EVENING.

A MOIST ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WE MAY EXPERIENCE A BREAK IN CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY THIS EVENING AFTER REMNANT CONVECTION DIMINISHES...BUT WILL
AT LEAST LEAVE IN LOW CHANCE POPS FOR NOW GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR
LINGERING ACTIVITY INTO THE EVENING HOURS UNDERNEATH MOIST WESTERLY
FLOW. SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS THEN IN AGREEMENT THAT
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT WITHIN THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AXIS
SINKING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE CWFA. THE HRRR HAS BEEN SIGNALING
POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AFTER 2-3 AM OVER SOUTHEAST
MS...WITH PERHAPS DEVELOPMENT INTO SOUTHWEST AL PRIOR TO SUNRISE.
WILL MONITOR FOR A FEW LOCALLY STRONG STORMS OVERNIGHT GIVEN MLCAPE
VALUES REMAINING AROUND 1000-2000 J/KG ALONG WITH 25-35 KNOTS OF
DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT STILL LOOKS TO REMAIN
LIMITED/MARGINAL OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE MILD IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S INLAND TO LOWER 70S NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

WEAK BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTHWARD THURSDAY AND WILL BECOME
ORIENTED NEAR THE COAST BY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE ALONG THE AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY...AND WILL MAINTAIN A
40-50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
BETTER INSTABILITY MAY SET UP OVER INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MS AND
SOUTHWEST AL THURSDAY...WITH MLCAPE VALUES 2000-3000 J/KG PER THE
LATEST NAM-12...WITH VALUES MUCH LOWER NEAR THE COAST WHERE BETTER
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE MAY BE LOCATED. DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS 30-35
KNOTS FOR THE MOST PART. A FEW STRONG OR PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SEVERE
STORM OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT THE OVERALL SEVERE RISK SHOULD
REMAIN MARGINAL. WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS.
HIGHS SHOULD OTHERWISE RANGE FROM 80-85. /21


.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...A WEAK FRONT
WILL STALL ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS THURSDAY EVENING BEFORE THE
FRONT MOVES NORTHWARD FRIDAY AS ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. THE WEAK BOUNDARY IN THE AREA COMBINED WITH MOISTURE AND
HEATING WILL MAINTAIN ISOLATED TO LOW END SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SATURDAY WILL BE DRIER AS SOME DRIER AIR MOVES IN AND
UPPER RIDGING DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S INLAND TO LOW
70S ALONG THE COAST. /13


.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...THE NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY BRINGING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. ANOTHER FRONT TRIES TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK...HOWEVER AS IS THE CASE
LATE IN THE SPRING...IT WILL LIKELY STALL ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN CHANCES FOR SCATTERED...MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
/13

&&

.MARINE...A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AS A SURFACE LOW
FORMING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS PASSES WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. A
LIGHT TO OCCASIONAL MODERATE ONSHORE WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. /22

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      69  83  69  85 /  40  50  20  20
PENSACOLA   72  82  70  83 /  30  50  20  20
DESTIN      71  80  72  81 /  20  50  20  20
EVERGREEN   69  85  65  88 /  50  50  30  40
WAYNESBORO  68  85  66  85 /  50  40  20  40
CAMDEN      68  83  65  87 /  50  50  20  30
CRESTVIEW   68  85  68  88 /  30  50  30  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MOB





000
FXUS64 KMOB 271739 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1239 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.DISCUSSION...SEE UPDATED INFORMATION BELOW.

&&

.UPDATE...LATE MORNING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A
LINEAR MCS CROSSING THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO WESTERN
PORTIONS OF MS AND SOUTHEAST LA WITHIN THE DIFFLUENT MID TO UPPER
LEVEL FLOW REGIME. THE LATEST RAP-13 AND NAM-12 GUIDANCE INDICATE
QUITE AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MS AND PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST AL THIS AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE VALUES FROM 1500-2500 J/KG...
AND LOCALLY NEAR 3000 J/KG. THE COMBINATION OF THE ADVANCING COLD
POOL AHEAD OF THE MCS TO OUR WEST...AND LIFT PROVIDED BY AN EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING NORTHEASTWARD FROM LA TOWARD MS AND WESTERN
AL WILL AID IN GENERATING NEW SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS OUR REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. 0-6 KM SHEAR WILL BE STRONGEST OVER OUR SOUTHEAST MS
COUNTIES INTO INTERIOR SOUTHWEST AL THIS AFTERNOON...WHERE VALUES OF
35-45 KNOTS ARE DEPICTED. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE MAINLY TO THE NORTHWEST OF A MOBILE...CAMDEN LINE THIS
AFTERNOON WHERE THE BETTER INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL COINCIDE.
DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY
HAZARDS TODAY. A STRONG STORM OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWFA...BUT SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD BECOME MUCH MORE
LIMITED FARTHER EAST WITHIN THE WEAKER SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.

WE HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCREASE POPS TO THE LIKELY CATEGORY
WITH A MENTION OF A FEW SEVERE STORMS OVER SOUTHEAST MS AND INTERIOR
SOUTHWEST AL...WHILE KEEPING A DECENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD
GRADUALLY DECREASE AFTER 6-7 PM. /21

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z ISSUANCE...CIGS ARE GRADUALLY RISING TO VFR LEVELS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW LINGERING MVFR CIGS NEAR THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LOCALLY STRONGER TSRA POTENTIALLY
AFFECTING KMOB/KBFM/KPNS MAINLY DURING THE 27.20-28.00Z TIME FRAME.
GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...LOCALIZED MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
MVFR TO IFR CIGS SHOULD RETURN LATE TONIGHT...ALONG WITH POTENTIAL
FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. /21

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 445 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016/

NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE
AREA OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL LIFT SLOWLY EAST-NORTHEAST OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MEANWHILE A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL PERSIST AS A
SURFACE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS ALSO LIFTS EAST-NORTHEAST. THIS
WILL KEEP A LIGHT MOIST SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE NEAR TERM...WITH LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG EARLY THIS
MORNING FOLLOWED BY A MIX OF LOW CUMULUS CLOUDS AND CIRRUS CLOUDS.
AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE TRAVERSING THE FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH
DECREASING STABILITY WILL HELP TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO END ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF I-65 THIS EVENING AS THE
FIRST IMPULSE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...WILL MAINTAIN
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTHWEST OF I-65
THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE SECOND IMPULSE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
THIS LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN MOVE EAST ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. A MID LEVEL
CAPPING INVERSION THIS MORNING IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS THE FIRST
IMPULSE ARRIVES...WITH ML CAPES EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO BETWEEN 2000
AND 2500 J/KG BY MID AFTERNOON. WIND SHEAR WILL BE WEAK WITH BULK
SHEAR ONLY AROUND 30 KNOTS. STRONG TO MARGINAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS THE INLAND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...WITH MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL AND
GUSTY SURFACE WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREATS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM 80 TO 85 DEGREES INLAND
AREAS...WITH UPPER 70S AT THE BEACHES. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM 66 TO 70 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF THE LOWER 70S AT THE BEACHES. /22

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...UPPER LEVEL STORM THAT
MOVES OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS PROGGED TO DEAMPLIFY AS IT MOVES
EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MID-WEST THURSDAY. AT THE SURFACE...AN
OCCLUDED FRONTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS FROM ILLINOIS/INDIANA
THURSDAY MORNING TO ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY THURSDAY
EVENING. EXTENDING OUT FROM THIS LOW...AN ATTENDANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SETTLES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH DURING THE DAY. SOUTH OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...MID LEVEL IMPULSES IN THE HIGH LEVEL WEST
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...PASSING EAST OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...
BRINGS ENOUGH LAYER LIFT WHEN UPON INTERACTING WITH MODIFIED DEEP
MOISTURE AND DAYTIME INSTABILITY...BRINGS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN FRONT IS TO THE
NORTH...A SURFACE ENHANCEMENT TO LIFT WILL COME FROM MESOSCALE
BOUNDARIES THAT APPROACH FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST. THE POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR STRONG STORMS AT TIMES CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS. ALTHOUGH
FORECASTERS CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SEVERE STORMS...WEAK WIND PROFILES
AND BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES SUGGEST THAT THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER
RISK WILL BE LIMITED ON THURSDAY. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THAT CARRIES
OVER INTO THURSDAY EVENING IS FORECAST TO DECREASE BY LATE IN THE
NIGHT.

MOVING INTO FRIDAY...WEATHER MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON SHOWING
A WEST NORTHWEST TO EAST SOUTHEAST ORIENTED BAND OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS FORMING OVER THE LAND ZONES. THIS OCCURS SOUTH OF A WEAK
SURFACE PRESSURE TROF EASING INTO THE SOUTHEAST...INTERACTING WITH
MODEST DAYTIME INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. SOME OF THE
STORMS ON FRIDAY COULD BECOME STRONG. THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT REMAINS LIMITED. LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES DURING THE
SHORT TERM. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S INTERIOR...NEAR 80 COAST.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 60S INTERIOR TO CLOSE TO 70 BEACHES. /10

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...MOVING INTO THE WEEKEND...NEXT
UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM DIGGING ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS OF THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST EVOLVES INTO A MORE AMPLIFIED HEIGHT PATTERN ALOFT
AS IT MOVES INTO THE PLAINS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WITH DOWNSTREAM RIDGE
ALOFT BECOMING BETTER ESTABLISHED OVER OUR AREA...ITS ASSOCIATED
LARGER SCALE SINKING MOTIONS ACTS TO KEEP CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS MINIMAL ON SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY...MORE STORMINESS. WITHIN THE
LARGER SCALE TROF POSITION OVER THE NATION`S HEARTLAND...A LEAD MID
LEVEL IMPULSE EJECTS NORTHEAST OUT OF THE PLAINS AND BRINGS A
POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE COMPLEX EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID/LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA SUNDAY MORNING WHICH POTENTIALLY HOLDS
TOGETHER WHILE SPREADING EAST THROUGH THE DAY. ALTHOUGH FLOW ALOFT
FLATTENS INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...WILL FOLLOW THE LATEST
ECMWF SOLUTION OF MAINTAINING A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN
THE LOCAL FORECAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHERE ASCENT OCCURS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT SETTLES ACROSS THE COAST.
LITTLE CHANGE IN HIGHS AND LOWS. /10

MARINE...A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AS A SURFACE LOW
FORMING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS PASSES WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. A
LIGHT TO OCCASIONAL MODERATE ONSHORE WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. /22

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MOB





000
FXUS64 KMOB 270945
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
445 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE
AREA OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL LIFT SLOWLY EAST-NORTHEAST OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MEANWHILE A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL PERSIST AS A
SURFACE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS ALSO LIFTS EAST-NORTHEAST. THIS
WILL KEEP A LIGHT MOIST SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE NEAR TERM...WITH LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG EARLY THIS
MORNING FOLLOWED BY A MIX OF LOW CUMULUS CLOUDS AND CIRRUS CLOUDS.
AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE TRAVERSING THE FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH
DECREASING STABILITY WILL HELP TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO END ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF I-65 THIS EVENING AS THE
FIRST IMPULSE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...WILL MAINTAIN
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTHWEST OF I-65
THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE SECOND IMPULSE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
THIS LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN MOVE EAST ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. A MID LEVEL
CAPPING INVERSION THIS MORNING IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS THE FIRST
IMPULSE ARRIVES...WITH ML CAPES EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO BETWEEN 2000
AND 2500 J/KG BY MID AFTERNOON. WIND SHEAR WILL BE WEAK WITH BULK
SHEAR ONLY AROUND 30 KNOTS. STRONG TO MARGINAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS THE INLAND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...WITH MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL AND
GUSTY SURFACE WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREATS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM 80 TO 85 DEGREES INLAND
AREAS...WITH UPPER 70S AT THE BEACHES. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM 66 TO 70 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF THE LOWER 70S AT THE BEACHES. /22


.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...UPPER LEVEL STORM THAT
MOVES OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS PROGGED TO DEAMPLIFY AS IT MOVES
EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MID-WEST THURSDAY. AT THE SURFACE...AN
OCCLUDED FRONTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS FROM ILLINOIS/INDIANA
THURSDAY MORNING TO ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY THURSDAY
EVENING. EXTENDING OUT FROM THIS LOW...AN ATTENDANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SETTLES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH DURING THE DAY. SOUTH OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...MID LEVEL IMPULSES IN THE HIGH LEVEL WEST
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...PASSING EAST OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...
BRINGS ENOUGH LAYER LIFT WHEN UPON INTERACTING WITH MODIFIED DEEP
MOISTURE AND DAYTIME INSTABILITY...BRINGS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN FRONT IS TO THE
NORTH...A SURFACE ENHANCEMENT TO LIFT WILL COME FROM MESOSCALE
BOUNDARIES THAT APPROACH FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST. THE POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR STRONG STORMS AT TIMES CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS. ALTHOUGH
FORECASTERS CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SEVERE STORMS...WEAK WIND PROFILES
AND BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES SUGGEST THAT THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER
RISK WILL BE LIMITED ON THURSDAY. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THAT CARRIES
OVER INTO THURSDAY EVENING IS FORECAST TO DECREASE BY LATE IN THE
NIGHT.

MOVING INTO FRIDAY...WEATHER MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON SHOWING
A WEST NORTHWEST TO EAST SOUTHEAST ORIENTED BAND OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS FORMING OVER THE LAND ZONES. THIS OCCURS SOUTH OF A WEAK
SURFACE PRESSURE TROF EASING INTO THE SOUTHEAST...INTERACTING WITH
MODEST DAYTIME INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. SOME OF THE
STORMS ON FRIDAY COULD BECOME STRONG. THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT REMAINS LIMITED. LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES DURING THE
SHORT TERM. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S INTERIOR...NEAR 80 COAST.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 60S INTERIOR TO CLOSE TO 70 BEACHES. /10

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...MOVING INTO THE WEEKEND...NEXT
UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM DIGGING ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS OF THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST EVOLVES INTO A MORE AMPLIFIED HEIGHT PATTERN ALOFT
AS IT MOVES INTO THE PLAINS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WITH DOWNSTREAM RIDGE
ALOFT BECOMING BETTER ESTABLISHED OVER OUR AREA...ITS ASSOCIATED
LARGER SCALE SINKING MOTIONS ACTS TO KEEP CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS MINIMAL ON SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY...MORE STORMINESS. WITHIN THE
LARGER SCALE TROF POSITION OVER THE NATION`S HEARTLAND...A LEAD MID
LEVEL IMPULSE EJECTS NORTHEAST OUT OF THE PLAINS AND BRINGS A
POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE COMPLEX EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID/LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA SUNDAY MORNING WHICH POTENTIALLY HOLDS
TOGETHER WHILE SPREADING EAST THROUGH THE DAY. ALTHOUGH FLOW ALOFT
FLATTENS INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...WILL FOLLOW THE LATEST
ECMWF SOLUTION OF MAINTAINING A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN
THE LOCAL FORECAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHERE ASCENT OCCURS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT SETTLES ACROSS THE COAST.
LITTLE CHANGE IN HIGHS AND LOWS. /10

&&

.MARINE...A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AS A SURFACE LOW
FORMING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS PASSES WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. A
LIGHT TO OCCASIONAL MODERATE ONSHORE WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. /22

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      83  70  83  67 /  40  50  50  30
PENSACOLA   82  71  83  70 /  30  30  40  30
DESTIN      79  71  80  72 /  30  30  20  30
EVERGREEN   84  68  85  65 /  40  50  50  30
WAYNESBORO  84  67  83  67 /  60  60  50  30
CAMDEN      84  67  82  65 /  30  60  50  30
CRESTVIEW   84  68  85  66 /  40  30  40  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MOB





000
FXUS64 KMOB 270508
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1208 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
27/06Z ISSUANCE...VFR THROUGH 06Z TO 09Z...THEN IFR CIGS AND VSBYS AT
TIMES OVERNIGHT. AFTER ABOUT 13Z...MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS AT TAF
SITES THROUGH 28.00Z. COULD SEE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON WED WITH THE BEST
COVERAGE WELL INLAND FROM THE COAST. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE
SOUTH SOUTHEAST AT GENERALLY 10-12 KNOTS OR LESS...BUT STRONGER GUSTS
AND MORE VARIABLE IN DIRECTION NEAR ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. 12/DS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 603 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016/

DISCUSSION...SEE UPDATED INFORMATION FOR LAND AND MARINE AREAS BELOW.

UPDATE...DID A QUICK UPDATE TO THE CURRENT ZONE FORECAST MAINLY TO
EXTEND THE PATCHY FOG UNTIL AROUND 8 AM WED MORNING. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR CONDITIONS CLOSELY LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WED MORNING FOR
POSSIBLE DENSE FOG IN SOME AREAS. 32/EE

AVIATION...
00Z ISSUANCE...VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT 27.06Z FOLLOWED
BY MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES THROUGH ABOUT 27.13Z THEN MVFR
TO VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 28.00Z. COULD SEE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON WED WITH THE BEST
COVERAGE WELL INLAND FROM THE COAST. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE
SOUTH SOUTHEAST AT 8 TO 12 KNOTS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...
DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 5 KNOTS LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH ABOUT
27.13Z BECOMING SOUTH AT 8 TO 12 KNOTS THROUGH 28.00Z. 32/EE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016/

NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...DEEP MID TO UPPER LOW OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NE LATE TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH WED NIGHT RESULTING IN A FEW STRONG IMPULSES
ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER SYSTEM...PROVIDING BETTER FORCING OR
LIFT STRETCHING SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST WED INTO WED
NIGHT...THUS HELPING TO SUPPORT THE CHANCE FOR BETTER COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA BEGINNING
BY LATE WED MORNING CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WITH PLENTY OF
HEATING NEAR THE SURFACE AND DRIER COOLER AIR ALOFT...LOW TO MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES UP TO 7.3 C/KM...COMBINED WITH BULK SHEAR VALUES
UP TO 40 KTS ADVECTING EASTWARD IN A RATHER DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT
THE CHANCE FOR A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALSO CONTINUES...MOSTLY
DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON CONTINUING INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON THE BETTER COVERAGE BEGINS TO
SHIFT NORTHWARD WITH THE STRONGER CONVECTION MOSTLY AFFECTING CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH MUCH LESS COVERAGE OVER
COASTAL AREAS STRETCHING INLAND TO ALONG OR NORTH AROUND I-10
CORRIDOR. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH A LIMITED RISK FOR STRONG TO
POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER ON WED AFFECTING MOSTLY THE NW PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. DAMAGING STRAIGHT
LINE WINDS ALONG WITH MEDIUM TO LARGE HAIL LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN
CONCERN. FOR TONIGHT THE BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
STRETCHING FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO THE CENTRAL GULF STATES
SLOWLY BREAKS DOWN EVENTUALLY LEADING TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES STARTING
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

AS FOR TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARDS THE WARMER MAV/ECMWF
NUMBERS MOSTLY DUE TO PERSISTENCE AND BETTER CONSISTENCY WITH
SURROUNDING WFOS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 60S FOR
MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE UPPER 60S CLOSE TO COAST. HIGHS WED WILL
CLIMB TO THE MIDDLE 80S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. 32/EE

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...A WESTERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE IMPULSES
WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT WHILE A WEAK
BOUNDARY ALSO GRADUALLY EASES SOUTHWARD ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST MS AND SOUTHWEST AL. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAY PERSIST INTO THE EARLY TO MID EVENING HOURS WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MS AND ADJACENT INTERIOR SOUTHWEST AL...WHERE MLCAPE
VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG ALONG WITH 30-35 KNOTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR
MAY PERSIST. A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS MAY LINGER INTO
AT LEAST THE EARLY EVENING AGAIN GENERALLY NORTHWEST OF A WIGGINS MS
TO CAMDEN AL LINE. STRONG TO LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS APPEAR TO BE THE
PRIMARY HAZARDS GIVEN THE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY...BUT RATHER WEAK
DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES SHOULD PRECLUDE A MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE
THREAT. WE WILL ALSO NEED TO MONITOR FOR A POTENTIAL SECOND ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT MAY PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF CENTRAL MS/AL
AND INTO SOUTHEAST MS AND INTERIOR SOUTHWEST AL LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ALONG THE SINKING BOUNDARY...WITH CONVECTION POSSIBLY APPROACHING
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWFA INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS THURSDAY. IF THE COMPLEX REMAINS ORGANIZED AS DEPICTED BY THE
GFS AND TO SOME EXTENT THE ECMWF...A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY BE
POSSIBLE OVER OUR INTERIOR LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...GIVEN MLCAPE VALUES
OF 500-1500 J/KG AND CONTINUED 30-35 KNOTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR.

AN ACTIVE MOIST ZONAL FLOW PATTERN MAY CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY...
WITH CONTINUED EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE IMPULSES TRAVERSING ALONG THE
BOUNDARY PERHAPS INITIATING ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
A FEW STRONG STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE THURSDAY WITH AFTERNOON MLCAPE
VALUES OF 1500-2500 J/KG...BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE A LITTLE
WEAKER WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT MARGINAL.
CONVECTION SHOULD DECREASE IN COVERAGE BY THURSDAY EVENING AS RIDGING
ALOFT RE-DEVELOPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. CONVECTION BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON SHOULD BE MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE AND MAINLY ALONG THE
SEABREEZE AS THE RIDGING ALOFT PERSISTS ACROSS THE REGION. WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH LOWS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S INLAND...AND LOWER 70S NEAR THE COAST...
AND AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 80S. /21

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...DRY WEATHER IS STILL EXPECTED
SATURDAY AS A LOW RH DEEP LAYER AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION BETWEEN THE DEPARTING UPPER RIDGE TO THE EAST AND INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE NEXT DEEPENING STORM SYSTEM OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS OCCASIONAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TRANSLATE
ACROSS OUR REGION WITHIN CONTINUED ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. LITTLE CHANGE IN
DAILY TEMPERATURES LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. /21

MARINE...A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY
LATE WED THROUGH FRI AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PASS
WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTRAL GULF. WITH THIS PATTERN A LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WITH
HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS OCCURRING OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS DUE TO BETTER HEATING INLAND
AND LOCAL SEA BREEZE EFFECTS. SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS WILL BUILD BY
THE WEEKEND AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A DEEP UPPER TROF
OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST. 32/EE

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MOB





000
FXUS64 KMOB 262303 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
603 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

.DISCUSSION...SEE UPDATED INFORMATION FOR LAND AND MARINE AREAS BELOW.

&&

.UPDATE...DID A QUICK UPDATE TO THE CURRENT ZONE FORECAST MAINLY TO
EXTEND THE PATCHY FOG UNTIL AROUND 8 AM WED MORNING. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR CONDITIONS CLOSELY LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WED MORNING FOR
POSSIBLE DENSE FOG IN SOME AREAS. 32/EE

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z ISSUANCE...VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT 27.06Z FOLLOWED
BY MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES THROUGH ABOUT 27.13Z THEN MVFR
TO VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 28.00Z. COULD SEE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON WED WITH THE BEST
COVERAGE WELL INLAND FROM THE COAST. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE
SOUTH SOUTHEAST AT 8 TO 12 KNOTS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...
DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 5 KNOTS LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH ABOUT
27.13Z BECOMING SOUTH AT 8 TO 12 KNOTS THROUGH 28.00Z. 32/EE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016/

NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...DEEP MID TO UPPER LOW OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NE LATE TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH WED NIGHT RESULTING IN A FEW STRONG IMPULSES
ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER SYSTEM...PROVIDING BETTER FORCING OR
LIFT STRETCHING SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST WED INTO WED
NIGHT...THUS HELPING TO SUPPORT THE CHANCE FOR BETTER COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA BEGINNING
BY LATE WED MORNING CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WITH PLENTY OF
HEATING NEAR THE SURFACE AND DRIER COOLER AIR ALOFT...LOW TO MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES UP TO 7.3 C/KM...COMBINED WITH BULK SHEAR VALUES
UP TO 40 KTS ADVECTING EASTWARD IN A RATHER DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT
THE CHANCE FOR A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALSO CONTINUES...MOSTLY
DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON CONTINUING INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON THE BETTER COVERAGE BEGINS TO
SHIFT NORTHWARD WITH THE STRONGER CONVECTION MOSTLY AFFECTING CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH MUCH LESS COVERAGE OVER
COASTAL AREAS STRETCHING INLAND TO ALONG OR NORTH AROUND I-10
CORRIDOR. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH A LIMITED RISK FOR STRONG TO
POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER ON WED AFFECTING MOSTLY THE NW PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. DAMAGING STRAIGHT
LINE WINDS ALONG WITH MEDIUM TO LARGE HAIL LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN
CONCERN. FOR TONIGHT THE BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
STRETCHING FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO THE CENTRAL GULF STATES
SLOWLY BREAKS DOWN EVENTUALLY LEADING TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES STARTING
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

AS FOR TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARDS THE WARMER MAV/ECMWF
NUMBERS MOSTLY DUE TO PERSISTENCE AND BETTER CONSISTENCY WITH
SURROUNDING WFOS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 60S FOR
MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE UPPER 60S CLOSE TO COAST. HIGHS WED WILL
CLIMB TO THE MIDDLE 80S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. 32/EE

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...A WESTERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE IMPULSES
WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT WHILE A WEAK
BOUNDARY ALSO GRADUALLY EASES SOUTHWARD ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST MS AND SOUTHWEST AL. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAY PERSIST INTO THE EARLY TO MID EVENING HOURS WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MS AND ADJACENT INTERIOR SOUTHWEST AL...WHERE MLCAPE
VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG ALONG WITH 30-35 KNOTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR
MAY PERSIST. A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS MAY LINGER INTO
AT LEAST THE EARLY EVENING AGAIN GENERALLY NORTHWEST OF A WIGGINS MS
TO CAMDEN AL LINE. STRONG TO LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS APPEAR TO BE THE
PRIMARY HAZARDS GIVEN THE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY...BUT RATHER WEAK
DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES SHOULD PRECLUDE A MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE
THREAT. WE WILL ALSO NEED TO MONITOR FOR A POTENTIAL SECOND ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT MAY PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF CENTRAL MS/AL
AND INTO SOUTHEAST MS AND INTERIOR SOUTHWEST AL LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ALONG THE SINKING BOUNDARY...WITH CONVECTION POSSIBLY APPROACHING
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWFA INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS THURSDAY. IF THE COMPLEX REMAINS ORGANIZED AS DEPICTED BY THE
GFS AND TO SOME EXTENT THE ECMWF...A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY BE
POSSIBLE OVER OUR INTERIOR LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...GIVEN MLCAPE VALUES
OF 500-1500 J/KG AND CONTINUED 30-35 KNOTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR.

AN ACTIVE MOIST ZONAL FLOW PATTERN MAY CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY...
WITH CONTINUED EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE IMPULSES TRAVERSING ALONG THE
BOUNDARY PERHAPS INITIATING ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
A FEW STRONG STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE THURSDAY WITH AFTERNOON MLCAPE
VALUES OF 1500-2500 J/KG...BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE A LITTLE
WEAKER WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT MARGINAL.
CONVECTION SHOULD DECREASE IN COVERAGE BY THURSDAY EVENING AS RIDGING
ALOFT RE-DEVELOPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. CONVECTION BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON SHOULD BE MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE AND MAINLY ALONG THE
SEABREEZE AS THE RIDGING ALOFT PERSISTS ACROSS THE REGION. WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH LOWS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S INLAND...AND LOWER 70S NEAR THE COAST...
AND AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 80S. /21

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...DRY WEATHER IS STILL EXPECTED
SATURDAY AS A LOW RH DEEP LAYER AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION BETWEEN THE DEPARTING UPPER RIDGE TO THE EAST AND INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE NEXT DEEPENING STORM SYSTEM OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS OCCASIONAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TRANSLATE
ACROSS OUR REGION WITHIN CONTINUED ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. LITTLE CHANGE IN
DAILY TEMPERATURES LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. /21

MARINE...A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY
LATE WED THROUGH FRI AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PASS
WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTRAL GULF. WITH THIS PATTERN A LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WITH
HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS OCCURRING OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS DUE TO BETTER HEATING INLAND
AND LOCAL SEA BREEZE EFFECTS. SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS WILL BUILD BY
THE WEEKEND AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A DEEP UPPER TROF
OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST. 32/EE

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MOB





000
FXUS64 KMOB 262303 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
603 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

.DISCUSSION...SEE UPDATED INFORMATION FOR LAND AND MARINE AREAS BELOW.

&&

.UPDATE...DID A QUICK UPDATE TO THE CURRENT ZONE FORECAST MAINLY TO
EXTEND THE PATCHY FOG UNTIL AROUND 8 AM WED MORNING. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR CONDITIONS CLOSELY LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WED MORNING FOR
POSSIBLE DENSE FOG IN SOME AREAS. 32/EE

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z ISSUANCE...VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT 27.06Z FOLLOWED
BY MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES THROUGH ABOUT 27.13Z THEN MVFR
TO VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 28.00Z. COULD SEE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON WED WITH THE BEST
COVERAGE WELL INLAND FROM THE COAST. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE
SOUTH SOUTHEAST AT 8 TO 12 KNOTS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...
DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 5 KNOTS LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH ABOUT
27.13Z BECOMING SOUTH AT 8 TO 12 KNOTS THROUGH 28.00Z. 32/EE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016/

NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...DEEP MID TO UPPER LOW OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NE LATE TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH WED NIGHT RESULTING IN A FEW STRONG IMPULSES
ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER SYSTEM...PROVIDING BETTER FORCING OR
LIFT STRETCHING SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST WED INTO WED
NIGHT...THUS HELPING TO SUPPORT THE CHANCE FOR BETTER COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA BEGINNING
BY LATE WED MORNING CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WITH PLENTY OF
HEATING NEAR THE SURFACE AND DRIER COOLER AIR ALOFT...LOW TO MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES UP TO 7.3 C/KM...COMBINED WITH BULK SHEAR VALUES
UP TO 40 KTS ADVECTING EASTWARD IN A RATHER DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT
THE CHANCE FOR A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALSO CONTINUES...MOSTLY
DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON CONTINUING INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON THE BETTER COVERAGE BEGINS TO
SHIFT NORTHWARD WITH THE STRONGER CONVECTION MOSTLY AFFECTING CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH MUCH LESS COVERAGE OVER
COASTAL AREAS STRETCHING INLAND TO ALONG OR NORTH AROUND I-10
CORRIDOR. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH A LIMITED RISK FOR STRONG TO
POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER ON WED AFFECTING MOSTLY THE NW PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. DAMAGING STRAIGHT
LINE WINDS ALONG WITH MEDIUM TO LARGE HAIL LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN
CONCERN. FOR TONIGHT THE BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
STRETCHING FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO THE CENTRAL GULF STATES
SLOWLY BREAKS DOWN EVENTUALLY LEADING TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES STARTING
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

AS FOR TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARDS THE WARMER MAV/ECMWF
NUMBERS MOSTLY DUE TO PERSISTENCE AND BETTER CONSISTENCY WITH
SURROUNDING WFOS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 60S FOR
MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE UPPER 60S CLOSE TO COAST. HIGHS WED WILL
CLIMB TO THE MIDDLE 80S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. 32/EE

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...A WESTERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE IMPULSES
WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT WHILE A WEAK
BOUNDARY ALSO GRADUALLY EASES SOUTHWARD ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST MS AND SOUTHWEST AL. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAY PERSIST INTO THE EARLY TO MID EVENING HOURS WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MS AND ADJACENT INTERIOR SOUTHWEST AL...WHERE MLCAPE
VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG ALONG WITH 30-35 KNOTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR
MAY PERSIST. A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS MAY LINGER INTO
AT LEAST THE EARLY EVENING AGAIN GENERALLY NORTHWEST OF A WIGGINS MS
TO CAMDEN AL LINE. STRONG TO LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS APPEAR TO BE THE
PRIMARY HAZARDS GIVEN THE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY...BUT RATHER WEAK
DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES SHOULD PRECLUDE A MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE
THREAT. WE WILL ALSO NEED TO MONITOR FOR A POTENTIAL SECOND ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT MAY PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF CENTRAL MS/AL
AND INTO SOUTHEAST MS AND INTERIOR SOUTHWEST AL LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ALONG THE SINKING BOUNDARY...WITH CONVECTION POSSIBLY APPROACHING
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWFA INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS THURSDAY. IF THE COMPLEX REMAINS ORGANIZED AS DEPICTED BY THE
GFS AND TO SOME EXTENT THE ECMWF...A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY BE
POSSIBLE OVER OUR INTERIOR LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...GIVEN MLCAPE VALUES
OF 500-1500 J/KG AND CONTINUED 30-35 KNOTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR.

AN ACTIVE MOIST ZONAL FLOW PATTERN MAY CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY...
WITH CONTINUED EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE IMPULSES TRAVERSING ALONG THE
BOUNDARY PERHAPS INITIATING ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
A FEW STRONG STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE THURSDAY WITH AFTERNOON MLCAPE
VALUES OF 1500-2500 J/KG...BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE A LITTLE
WEAKER WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT MARGINAL.
CONVECTION SHOULD DECREASE IN COVERAGE BY THURSDAY EVENING AS RIDGING
ALOFT RE-DEVELOPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. CONVECTION BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON SHOULD BE MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE AND MAINLY ALONG THE
SEABREEZE AS THE RIDGING ALOFT PERSISTS ACROSS THE REGION. WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH LOWS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S INLAND...AND LOWER 70S NEAR THE COAST...
AND AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 80S. /21

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...DRY WEATHER IS STILL EXPECTED
SATURDAY AS A LOW RH DEEP LAYER AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION BETWEEN THE DEPARTING UPPER RIDGE TO THE EAST AND INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE NEXT DEEPENING STORM SYSTEM OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS OCCASIONAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TRANSLATE
ACROSS OUR REGION WITHIN CONTINUED ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. LITTLE CHANGE IN
DAILY TEMPERATURES LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. /21

MARINE...A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY
LATE WED THROUGH FRI AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PASS
WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTRAL GULF. WITH THIS PATTERN A LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WITH
HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS OCCURRING OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS DUE TO BETTER HEATING INLAND
AND LOCAL SEA BREEZE EFFECTS. SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS WILL BUILD BY
THE WEEKEND AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A DEEP UPPER TROF
OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST. 32/EE

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MOB





000
FXUS64 KMOB 262116
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
416 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

.NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...DEEP MID TO UPPER LOW OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NE LATE TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH WED NIGHT RESULTING IN A FEW STRONG IMPULSES
ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER SYSTEM...PROVIDING BETTER FORCING OR
LIFT STRETCHING SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST WED INTO WED
NIGHT...THUS HELPING TO SUPPORT THE CHANCE FOR BETTER COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA BEGINNING
BY LATE WED MORNING CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WITH PLENTY OF
HEATING NEAR THE SURFACE AND DRIER COOLER AIR ALOFT...LOW TO MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES UP TO 7.3 C/KM...COMBINED WITH BULK SHEAR VALUES
UP TO 40 KTS ADVECTING EASTWARD IN A RATHER DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT
THE CHANCE FOR A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALSO CONTINUES...MOSTLY
DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON CONTINUING INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON THE BETTER COVERAGE BEGINS TO
SHIFT NORTHWARD WITH THE STRONGER CONVECTION MOSTLY AFFECTING CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH MUCH LESS COVERAGE OVER
COASTAL AREAS STRETCHING INLAND TO ALONG OR NORTH AROUND I-10
CORRIDOR. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH A LIMITED RISK FOR STRONG TO
POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER ON WED AFFECTING MOSTLY THE NW PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. DAMAGING STRAIGHT
LINE WINDS ALONG WITH MEDIUM TO LARGE HAIL LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN
CONCERN. FOR TONIGHT THE BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
STRETCHING FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO THE CENTRAL GULF STATES
SLOWLY BREAKS DOWN EVENTUALLY LEADING TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES STARTING
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

AS FOR TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARDS THE WARMER MAV/ECMWF
NUMBERS MOSTLY DUE TO PERSISTENCE AND BETTER CONSISTENCY WITH
SURROUNDING WFOS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 60S FOR
MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE UPPER 60S CLOSE TO COAST. HIGHS WED WILL
CLIMB TO THE MIDDLE 80S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. 32/EE

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...A WESTERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE IMPULSES
WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT WHILE A WEAK
BOUNDARY ALSO GRADUALLY EASES SOUTHWARD ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST MS AND SOUTHWEST AL. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAY PERSIST INTO THE EARLY TO MID EVENING HOURS WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MS AND ADJACENT INTERIOR SOUTHWEST AL...WHERE MLCAPE
VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG ALONG WITH 30-35 KNOTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR
MAY PERSIST. A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS MAY LINGER INTO
AT LEAST THE EARLY EVENING AGAIN GENERALLY NORTHWEST OF A WIGGINS MS
TO CAMDEN AL LINE. STRONG TO LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS APPEAR TO BE THE
PRIMARY HAZARDS GIVEN THE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY...BUT RATHER WEAK
DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES SHOULD PRECLUDE A MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE
THREAT. WE WILL ALSO NEED TO MONITOR FOR A POTENTIAL SECOND ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT MAY PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF CENTRAL MS/AL
AND INTO SOUTHEAST MS AND INTERIOR SOUTHWEST AL LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ALONG THE SINKING BOUNDARY...WITH CONVECTION POSSIBLY APPROACHING
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWFA INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS THURSDAY. IF THE COMPLEX REMAINS ORGANIZED AS DEPICTED BY THE
GFS AND TO SOME EXTENT THE ECMWF...A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY BE
POSSIBLE OVER OUR INTERIOR LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...GIVEN MLCAPE VALUES
OF 500-1500 J/KG AND CONTINUED 30-35 KNOTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR.

AN ACTIVE MOIST ZONAL FLOW PATTERN MAY CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY...
WITH CONTINUED EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE IMPULSES TRAVERSING ALONG THE
BOUNDARY PERHAPS INITIATING ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
A FEW STRONG STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE THURSDAY WITH AFTERNOON MLCAPE
VALUES OF 1500-2500 J/KG...BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE A LITTLE
WEAKER WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT MARGINAL.
CONVECTION SHOULD DECREASE IN COVERAGE BY THURSDAY EVENING AS RIDGING
ALOFT RE-DEVELOPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. CONVECTION BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON SHOULD BE MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE AND MAINLY ALONG THE
SEABREEZE AS THE RIDGING ALOFT PERSISTS ACROSS THE REGION. WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH LOWS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S INLAND...AND LOWER 70S NEAR THE COAST...
AND AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 80S. /21

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...DRY WEATHER IS STILL EXPECTED
SATURDAY AS A LOW RH DEEP LAYER AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION BETWEEN THE DEPARTING UPPER RIDGE TO THE EAST AND INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE NEXT DEEPENING STORM SYSTEM OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS OCCASIONAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TRANSLATE
ACROSS OUR REGION WITHIN CONTINUED ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. LITTLE CHANGE IN
DAILY TEMPERATURES LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. /21

&&

.MARINE...A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY
LATE WED THROUGH FRI AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PASS
WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTRAL GULF. WITH THIS PATTERN A LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WITH
HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS OCCURRING OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS DUE TO BETTER HEATING INLAND
AND LOCAL SEA BREEZE EFFECTS. SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS WILL BUILD BY
THE WEEKEND AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A DEEP UPPER TROF
OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      66  83  69  84 /  10  30  30  40
PENSACOLA   69  82  71  83 /  10  20  20  30
DESTIN      69  79  72  82 /  10  20  10  20
EVERGREEN   64  84  68  85 /  20  40  30  50
WAYNESBORO  64  84  67  84 /  20  40  50  50
CAMDEN      64  84  67  83 /  20  40  40  50
CRESTVIEW   66  84  68  87 /  10  30  20  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MOB





000
FXUS64 KMOB 261821 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
121 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

.DISCUSSION...SEE UPDATED INFORMATION BELOW.

&&

.UPDATE...DID A QUICK UPDATE TO THE CURRENT ZONE FORECAST MAINLY TO
EXPAND THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS REMAINING INLAND AREAS OF THE
FORECAST AREA GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON...THEN SHIFTING FURTHER INLAND THROUGH MID EVENING.
WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO MENTION THUNDERSTORMS WITH SURFACE BASED CAPES
REACHING TO 800 TO 1000 J/KG THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAPER OFF QUICKLY THIS EVENING AS DAYTIME HEATING
BEGINS TO EASE OFF. 32/EE

&&

.MARINE...INCREASED WINDS A TAD MAINLY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING...ADJUSTING MOSTLY FOR DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCAL SEABREEZE
EFFECTS. 32/EE

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY MVFR
TO IFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES THROUGH 27.13Z...THEN MVFR TO VFR CIGS
THROUGH 27.18Z. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
WELL INLAND FROM THE COAST...WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MID
EVENING TODAY...THEN OFFSHORE AND ALONG THE NWFL COAST EARLY WED
MORNING. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTH AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...SHIFTING SOUTHEAST AND DIMINISHING TO
5 KNOTS OR LESS LATER THIS EVENING CONTINUING THROUGH MID
MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO NEAR 10 KNOTS THROUGH 27.18Z. 32/EE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 650 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE...VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL PREVAIL ALONG THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT AS LIGHT EAST WINDS THIS
MORNING TURN TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 KNOTS. PATCHY GROUND
FOG FORMING AFTER MIDNIGHT WILL RESULT IN MVFR VISIBILITIES...MAINLY
AFTER 27.09Z...ALONG WITH A VERY LOW IFR CEILING AROUND 700 FEET. /22

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016/

NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...A WEAK UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO AND THE DEEP SOUTH WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES MOVING EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MEANWHILE
THE SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AS A SURFACE LOW FORMS OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL KEEP A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS
HAVE BROUGHT A SHALLOW MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER INTO THE AREA RESULTING
IN PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING. PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO FORM AGAIN FROM
MID EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. STILL EXPECT A FEW POP-UP
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS OF SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA DURING THE MAXIMUM HEATING HOURS
THIS AFTERNOON.

HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM 81 TO 86 DEGREES INLAND
AREAS...AND AROUND 80 DEGREES ALONG THE COASTAL SECTIONS. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL   RANGE FROM 63 TO 68 DEGREES INLAND
AREAS ...WITH THE EXCEPTION AROUND 70 DEGREES AT THE BEACHES. /22

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...UPPER LEVEL STORM
SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY EJECTS NORTHEAST UP INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND WEAKENS BY THURSDAY. OVER THE GULF COAST...A
ZONE OF HIGH LEVEL WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTAIN A SERIES OF MID
LEVEL IMPULSES...THAT UPON INTERACTING WITH BETTER DAYTIME
INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE (PWATS 1.4 TO 1.6 INCHES) SETS
THE STAGE FOR A CHANCE OF STORMS. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF SPRING-TIME
INSTABILITY (MOST UNSTABLE DAYTIME CAPE VALUES RUNNING BETWEEN 2000
AND 3000 J/KG ON AVERAGE)...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STRONG STORMS
AT TIMES CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FREQUENT LIGHTNING...BRIEF STRONG WIND
GUSTS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS. ALTHOUGH FORECASTERS CANNOT RULE OUT A
FEW SEVERE STORMS...WEAK WIND PROFILES AND BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES
SUGGEST THAT THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER RISK WILL BE LIMITED.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED TO OUR EAST...STRETCHING FROM THE
WEST ATLANTIC INTO THE CENTRAL GULF RESULTS IN VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE SHORT TERM TEMPERATURE FORECASTS. DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MID 80S
OVER THE INTERIOR TO CLOSER TO 80 BEACHES. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID
60S INTERIOR TO NEAR 70 BEACHES. /10

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...MOVING INTO THE WEEKEND...NEXT
UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM DIGGING ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS OF THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY EVOLVES INTO A MORE AMPLIFIED HEIGHT
PATTERN ALOFT AS IT MOVES INTO THE PLAINS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WILL
MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ON FRIDAY WITH THE ONSET OF
AFTERNOON INSTABILITY IN THE PRESENCE OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE. BY
SATURDAY...WITH RIDGE ALOFT BECOMING BETTER ESTABLISHED...ITS
ASSOCIATED LARGER SCALE SINKING MOTIONS ACTS TO KEEP CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS MINIMAL. LOOK TO BECOME IN A MORE ACTIVE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND AN UPWARD CHANCE OF SHOWER/STORM
PROBABILITIES BY SUNDAY AS THE HIGH LEVEL RIDGE MOVES EAST OF THE
AREA. UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CARRIES OVER INTO THE START OF NEXT
WEEK. LITTLE CHANGE IN HIGHS AND LOWS. /10

MARINE...A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AS A SURFACE LOW
FORMING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS PASSES WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. A
LIGHT TO OCCASIONAL MODERATE ONSHORE WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. /22

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MOB





000
FXUS64 KMOB 261821 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
121 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

.DISCUSSION...SEE UPDATED INFORMATION BELOW.

&&

.UPDATE...DID A QUICK UPDATE TO THE CURRENT ZONE FORECAST MAINLY TO
EXPAND THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS REMAINING INLAND AREAS OF THE
FORECAST AREA GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON...THEN SHIFTING FURTHER INLAND THROUGH MID EVENING.
WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO MENTION THUNDERSTORMS WITH SURFACE BASED CAPES
REACHING TO 800 TO 1000 J/KG THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAPER OFF QUICKLY THIS EVENING AS DAYTIME HEATING
BEGINS TO EASE OFF. 32/EE

&&

.MARINE...INCREASED WINDS A TAD MAINLY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING...ADJUSTING MOSTLY FOR DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCAL SEABREEZE
EFFECTS. 32/EE

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY MVFR
TO IFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES THROUGH 27.13Z...THEN MVFR TO VFR CIGS
THROUGH 27.18Z. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
WELL INLAND FROM THE COAST...WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MID
EVENING TODAY...THEN OFFSHORE AND ALONG THE NWFL COAST EARLY WED
MORNING. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTH AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...SHIFTING SOUTHEAST AND DIMINISHING TO
5 KNOTS OR LESS LATER THIS EVENING CONTINUING THROUGH MID
MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO NEAR 10 KNOTS THROUGH 27.18Z. 32/EE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 650 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE...VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL PREVAIL ALONG THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT AS LIGHT EAST WINDS THIS
MORNING TURN TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 KNOTS. PATCHY GROUND
FOG FORMING AFTER MIDNIGHT WILL RESULT IN MVFR VISIBILITIES...MAINLY
AFTER 27.09Z...ALONG WITH A VERY LOW IFR CEILING AROUND 700 FEET. /22

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016/

NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...A WEAK UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO AND THE DEEP SOUTH WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES MOVING EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MEANWHILE
THE SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AS A SURFACE LOW FORMS OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL KEEP A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS
HAVE BROUGHT A SHALLOW MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER INTO THE AREA RESULTING
IN PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING. PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO FORM AGAIN FROM
MID EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. STILL EXPECT A FEW POP-UP
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS OF SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA DURING THE MAXIMUM HEATING HOURS
THIS AFTERNOON.

HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM 81 TO 86 DEGREES INLAND
AREAS...AND AROUND 80 DEGREES ALONG THE COASTAL SECTIONS. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL   RANGE FROM 63 TO 68 DEGREES INLAND
AREAS ...WITH THE EXCEPTION AROUND 70 DEGREES AT THE BEACHES. /22

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...UPPER LEVEL STORM
SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY EJECTS NORTHEAST UP INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND WEAKENS BY THURSDAY. OVER THE GULF COAST...A
ZONE OF HIGH LEVEL WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTAIN A SERIES OF MID
LEVEL IMPULSES...THAT UPON INTERACTING WITH BETTER DAYTIME
INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE (PWATS 1.4 TO 1.6 INCHES) SETS
THE STAGE FOR A CHANCE OF STORMS. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF SPRING-TIME
INSTABILITY (MOST UNSTABLE DAYTIME CAPE VALUES RUNNING BETWEEN 2000
AND 3000 J/KG ON AVERAGE)...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STRONG STORMS
AT TIMES CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FREQUENT LIGHTNING...BRIEF STRONG WIND
GUSTS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS. ALTHOUGH FORECASTERS CANNOT RULE OUT A
FEW SEVERE STORMS...WEAK WIND PROFILES AND BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES
SUGGEST THAT THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER RISK WILL BE LIMITED.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED TO OUR EAST...STRETCHING FROM THE
WEST ATLANTIC INTO THE CENTRAL GULF RESULTS IN VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE SHORT TERM TEMPERATURE FORECASTS. DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MID 80S
OVER THE INTERIOR TO CLOSER TO 80 BEACHES. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID
60S INTERIOR TO NEAR 70 BEACHES. /10

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...MOVING INTO THE WEEKEND...NEXT
UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM DIGGING ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS OF THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY EVOLVES INTO A MORE AMPLIFIED HEIGHT
PATTERN ALOFT AS IT MOVES INTO THE PLAINS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WILL
MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ON FRIDAY WITH THE ONSET OF
AFTERNOON INSTABILITY IN THE PRESENCE OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE. BY
SATURDAY...WITH RIDGE ALOFT BECOMING BETTER ESTABLISHED...ITS
ASSOCIATED LARGER SCALE SINKING MOTIONS ACTS TO KEEP CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS MINIMAL. LOOK TO BECOME IN A MORE ACTIVE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND AN UPWARD CHANCE OF SHOWER/STORM
PROBABILITIES BY SUNDAY AS THE HIGH LEVEL RIDGE MOVES EAST OF THE
AREA. UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CARRIES OVER INTO THE START OF NEXT
WEEK. LITTLE CHANGE IN HIGHS AND LOWS. /10

MARINE...A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AS A SURFACE LOW
FORMING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS PASSES WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. A
LIGHT TO OCCASIONAL MODERATE ONSHORE WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. /22

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MOB





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