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000
FXUS64 KMOB 191028
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
528 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SHORT TERM [TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT]...MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT
TERM WILL BE THE DEVELOPING CONVECTION OVER THE MUCH OF THE CWFA
EARLY THIS MORNING...CONTINUING THROUGH ABOUT MID MORNING THEN
DISSIPATING FROM WEST TO EAST BY LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. MOST OF
THE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEPICT A PERIOD OF HIGH SHEAR IN THE
LOWER TO MID LEVELS COUPLED WITH THE FAVORABLE SIDE OF AN UPPER JET
BY AROUND 12Z THIS MORNING AFFECTING MOSTLY THE EASTERN AND COASTAL
AREAS OF THE CWFA THROUGH ABOUT MID MORNING. THIS PATTERN SUPPORTS
THE SLIGHT RISK ISSUED BY SPC EARLIER WITH THE CHANCE FOR DAMAGING
WINDS...HAIL AND FEW ISOLATED TORNADOES. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THIS SITUATION CLOSELY FOR A POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR TORNADO
WATCH LATER THIS MORNING. LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW PWATS LOWERING
GENERALLY FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY DECREASING TO LESS THAN 1 INCH FOR
MOST LOCATIONS IN THE CWFA LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. WITH THIS WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH GENERALLY EAST OF THE I-65
CORRIDOR AND ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING THOUGH BEGIN TRIMMING
COUNTIES TO WEST POSSIBLY BETWEEN 8 AND 10 AM THIS MORNING AS THE
HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE BOUNDARY BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST. FOR
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER POPS THROUGH TODAY
AND TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO ADVECT IN FROM THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST. WELL TO THE NORTH AND WEST ANOTHER MID LEVEL IMPULSE STILL
AHEAD OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO MORE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM AFFECTING MAINLY NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA BY EARLY
MON MORNING. WITH PLENTY OF DRYNESS IN THE MID LEVELS BY THEN
COMBINED WITH GOOD FORCING ALOFT AND BETTER LAPSE RATES IN THE LOWER
TO MID LEVELS ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MON WILL HAVE TO MONITORED CLOSELY MOSTLY FOR STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL. AS FOR TEMPS WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE CURRENT MAV GUIDANCE
UNDERCUTTING THESE VALES 2 TO 3 DEGREES MAINLY TO THE EAST DUE TO
RAIN AND CLOUDS. FOR TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARDS THE
CURRENT MAV GUIDANCE ADDING 2 TO 3 DEGREES FOR MOST AREAS DUE TO MORE
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AND BETTER CONSISTENCY WITH SURROUNDING WFOS. HIGHS
TODAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S TO THE EAST AND ALONG THE
COAST...AND THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S TO THE WEST. TONIGHT LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 60S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE LOWER 70S
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. 32/EE

A BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION MONDAY...WHILE AN EMBEDDED POTENT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY/APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS VICINITY THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON. AN ASSOCIATED AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES VICINITY WHILE A
TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THIS FEATURE PUSHES
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.
SHORT RANGE SOLUTIONS STILL SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA
MONDAY MORNING AS THE LAST BATCH OF LIFT MOVES ACROSS THIS REGION
AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES END
LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS SPREADS
ACROSS OUR REGION WITHIN WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ON THE BASE OF THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH. WINDS WILL VEER WESTERLY OVER MUCH OF THE REGION MONDAY
AFTERNOON FOLLOWING THE WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S AS CLOUDS
GRADUALLY DECREASE ACROSS THE REGION. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
MONDAY NIGHT. A DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS WILL SETTLE OVER OUR
FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING IN THE 50S
OVER MUCH OF THE REGION...EXCEPT LOWER 60S NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
/21

.LONG TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY]...DRY ZONAL FLOW WILL BE THE
RULE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL TREND UPWARD LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW
PASS ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. WILL MAINTAIN A DAILY CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. /21

&&

.AVIATION...
19.12Z ISSUANCE...MVFR TO IFR CIGS THROUGH ABOUT 19.15Z  THEN MOSTLY
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 20.12. LOWER CIGS MOSTLY IN AND AROUND SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS MORNING. GUSTY WINDS...HEAVY
RAIN...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND A FEW ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL BE
MOSTLY SOUTH AT 8 TO 12 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS THIS MORNING SHIFTING
MOSTLY SOUTHWEST TO WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. 32/EE

&&

.MARINE...A MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY THEN SHIFT WEST TO NORTHWEST LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY
EVENING IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL GULF
REGION LATE IN THE DAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING DURING THE
MORNING HOURS TODAY. GUSTY STRAIGHT LINE WINDS...HEAVY RAIN AND
ISOLATED WATERSPOUTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS
EARLY TODAY. A LIGHT TO MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATER IN
THE WEEK. 32/EE


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      83  66  82  55  78 /  50  10  10  05  05
PENSACOLA   78  70  82  59  77 /  70  10  20  05  05
DESTIN      76  73  80  62  76 /  70  20  20  05  05
EVERGREEN   80  65  82  52  78 /  60  20  20  05  05
WAYNESBORO  83  64  79  50  77 /  40  30  10  05  05
CAMDEN      79  65  80  51  77 /  60  20  20  05  05
CRESTVIEW   78  66  83  55  80 /  70  20  20  05  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR CHOCTAW-CLARKE-
     MONROE-WASHINGTON-WILCOX.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR LOWER BALDWIN-
     LOWER MOBILE.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR BUTLER-
     CONECUH-COVINGTON-CRENSHAW-ESCAMBIA-LOWER BALDWIN-LOWER
     MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-UPPER MOBILE.

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL ESCAMBIA-
     COASTAL OKALOOSA-COASTAL SANTA ROSA.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL
     ESCAMBIA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND
     ESCAMBIA-INLAND OKALOOSA-INLAND SANTA ROSA.

MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR GEORGE-GREENE-
     PERRY-STONE-WAYNE.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

32/21





000
FXUS64 KMOB 191028
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
528 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SHORT TERM [TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT]...MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT
TERM WILL BE THE DEVELOPING CONVECTION OVER THE MUCH OF THE CWFA
EARLY THIS MORNING...CONTINUING THROUGH ABOUT MID MORNING THEN
DISSIPATING FROM WEST TO EAST BY LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. MOST OF
THE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEPICT A PERIOD OF HIGH SHEAR IN THE
LOWER TO MID LEVELS COUPLED WITH THE FAVORABLE SIDE OF AN UPPER JET
BY AROUND 12Z THIS MORNING AFFECTING MOSTLY THE EASTERN AND COASTAL
AREAS OF THE CWFA THROUGH ABOUT MID MORNING. THIS PATTERN SUPPORTS
THE SLIGHT RISK ISSUED BY SPC EARLIER WITH THE CHANCE FOR DAMAGING
WINDS...HAIL AND FEW ISOLATED TORNADOES. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THIS SITUATION CLOSELY FOR A POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR TORNADO
WATCH LATER THIS MORNING. LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW PWATS LOWERING
GENERALLY FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY DECREASING TO LESS THAN 1 INCH FOR
MOST LOCATIONS IN THE CWFA LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. WITH THIS WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH GENERALLY EAST OF THE I-65
CORRIDOR AND ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING THOUGH BEGIN TRIMMING
COUNTIES TO WEST POSSIBLY BETWEEN 8 AND 10 AM THIS MORNING AS THE
HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE BOUNDARY BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST. FOR
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER POPS THROUGH TODAY
AND TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO ADVECT IN FROM THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST. WELL TO THE NORTH AND WEST ANOTHER MID LEVEL IMPULSE STILL
AHEAD OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO MORE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM AFFECTING MAINLY NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA BY EARLY
MON MORNING. WITH PLENTY OF DRYNESS IN THE MID LEVELS BY THEN
COMBINED WITH GOOD FORCING ALOFT AND BETTER LAPSE RATES IN THE LOWER
TO MID LEVELS ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MON WILL HAVE TO MONITORED CLOSELY MOSTLY FOR STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL. AS FOR TEMPS WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE CURRENT MAV GUIDANCE
UNDERCUTTING THESE VALES 2 TO 3 DEGREES MAINLY TO THE EAST DUE TO
RAIN AND CLOUDS. FOR TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARDS THE
CURRENT MAV GUIDANCE ADDING 2 TO 3 DEGREES FOR MOST AREAS DUE TO MORE
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AND BETTER CONSISTENCY WITH SURROUNDING WFOS. HIGHS
TODAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S TO THE EAST AND ALONG THE
COAST...AND THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S TO THE WEST. TONIGHT LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 60S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE LOWER 70S
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. 32/EE

A BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION MONDAY...WHILE AN EMBEDDED POTENT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY/APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS VICINITY THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON. AN ASSOCIATED AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES VICINITY WHILE A
TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THIS FEATURE PUSHES
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.
SHORT RANGE SOLUTIONS STILL SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA
MONDAY MORNING AS THE LAST BATCH OF LIFT MOVES ACROSS THIS REGION
AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES END
LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS SPREADS
ACROSS OUR REGION WITHIN WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ON THE BASE OF THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH. WINDS WILL VEER WESTERLY OVER MUCH OF THE REGION MONDAY
AFTERNOON FOLLOWING THE WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S AS CLOUDS
GRADUALLY DECREASE ACROSS THE REGION. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
MONDAY NIGHT. A DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS WILL SETTLE OVER OUR
FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING IN THE 50S
OVER MUCH OF THE REGION...EXCEPT LOWER 60S NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
/21

.LONG TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY]...DRY ZONAL FLOW WILL BE THE
RULE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL TREND UPWARD LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW
PASS ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. WILL MAINTAIN A DAILY CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. /21

&&

.AVIATION...
19.12Z ISSUANCE...MVFR TO IFR CIGS THROUGH ABOUT 19.15Z  THEN MOSTLY
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 20.12. LOWER CIGS MOSTLY IN AND AROUND SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS MORNING. GUSTY WINDS...HEAVY
RAIN...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND A FEW ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL BE
MOSTLY SOUTH AT 8 TO 12 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS THIS MORNING SHIFTING
MOSTLY SOUTHWEST TO WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. 32/EE

&&

.MARINE...A MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY THEN SHIFT WEST TO NORTHWEST LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY
EVENING IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL GULF
REGION LATE IN THE DAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING DURING THE
MORNING HOURS TODAY. GUSTY STRAIGHT LINE WINDS...HEAVY RAIN AND
ISOLATED WATERSPOUTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS
EARLY TODAY. A LIGHT TO MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATER IN
THE WEEK. 32/EE


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      83  66  82  55  78 /  50  10  10  05  05
PENSACOLA   78  70  82  59  77 /  70  10  20  05  05
DESTIN      76  73  80  62  76 /  70  20  20  05  05
EVERGREEN   80  65  82  52  78 /  60  20  20  05  05
WAYNESBORO  83  64  79  50  77 /  40  30  10  05  05
CAMDEN      79  65  80  51  77 /  60  20  20  05  05
CRESTVIEW   78  66  83  55  80 /  70  20  20  05  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR CHOCTAW-CLARKE-
     MONROE-WASHINGTON-WILCOX.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR LOWER BALDWIN-
     LOWER MOBILE.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR BUTLER-
     CONECUH-COVINGTON-CRENSHAW-ESCAMBIA-LOWER BALDWIN-LOWER
     MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-UPPER MOBILE.

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL ESCAMBIA-
     COASTAL OKALOOSA-COASTAL SANTA ROSA.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL
     ESCAMBIA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND
     ESCAMBIA-INLAND OKALOOSA-INLAND SANTA ROSA.

MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR GEORGE-GREENE-
     PERRY-STONE-WAYNE.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

32/21




000
FXUS64 KMOB 190502 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1202 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

.AVIATION...
19.06Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF CYCLE...
WITH A DRIER AIR MASS MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST...THERE WILL BE A
PERIOD OF RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST THROUGH
ABOUT 19.09Z FOR THE KMOB AND KBFM TAF SITES...AND THROUGH ABOUT
19.11Z FOR THE KPNS TAF SITE. STILL EXPECTING A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AFTER THOSE TIME FRAMES
AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING A FOUR HOUR TIME SPAN WITH MVFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. SO ADDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR THIS LINE OF
PRECIPITATION...FOLLOWED BY MVFR CEILINGS AFTER THE RAIN THROUGH
ABOUT NOON. VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST. /22

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...FOR TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY...AN UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BEGINS TO BE ABSORBED
BY A LONGWAVE TROF WHICH EVOLVES OVER THE CENTRAL STATES. A SERIES OF
STRONG SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AND BRING HIGH RAIN CHANCES TO THE AREA DUE TO BOTH AN
MCS...MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM...EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE MARINE
AREA...AND ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE LOW WHICH DEVELOPS OVER THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND MOVES WELL NORTH OF THE AREA.
STORM SCALE INTERACTIONS AND SUB-SYNOPTIC FEATURES HAVE IMPACTED THE
FORECAST SUCH AS THE LINGERING AREA OF CONVECTION OVER THE MARINE
AREA...A REMNANT OF AN OVERNIGHT MCS...AND ANOTHER MCS WHICH APPEARS
TO BE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING SOUTH OF LOUISIANA. THE LATTER MCS HAS
DEVELOPED ON A 850 MB THETA-E RIDGE IN A REGION OF DIFFLUENT
850-300MB THICKNESS...AND BASED ON THE PLACEMENT OF THESE
FEATURES...EXPECT THE MCS TO TRANSLATE GENERALLY EASTWARD OVERNIGHT
AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF.

WITH ABUNDANT CONVECTION EXPECTED OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH MUCH
OF THE PERIOD...THIS WILL SIGNIFICANTLY LIMIT SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY OVER THE LAND PORTION OF THE AREA AND DO NOT SEE MUCH OF
A SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL AT LEAST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.  BETTER
INSTABILITY DOES DEVELOP LATER IN THE DAY ON SUNDAY...BUT FORCING IS
WEAKER OR NEGATIVE WHICH WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
SUFFICIENTLY THAT AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF A SEVERE STORM RISK ON
SUNDAY EITHER AS THE 850 MB FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY ALONG WITH
THE SURFACE FLOW AND NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG.  THE EXCEPTIONS TO
THIS ARE POSSIBLY OVER THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING SHOULD THE MCS TRANSLATE FURTHER NORTHWARD
ALLOWING FOR BETTER SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY...AND WILL NEED TO
MONITOR.

EXPECT CURRENTLY NEGLIGIBLE/ISOLATED PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN TO BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT AS THE LOUISIANA MARINE AREA MCS
STRENGTHENS...AND AS ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DEVELOPS FURTHER INLAND
OVER THE AREA. HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING...EXCEPT FOR GOOD CHANCE POPS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA...THEN CATEGORICAL POPS FOLLOW FOR ABOUT THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH LIKELY POPS ELSEWHERE AS THE EXPANDING MCS
ADVANCES FURTHER EASTWARD. QPF AMOUNTS LOOKS TO BE INCREASING
OVERNIGHT MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA...THEN THE
HEAVIER AMOUNTS LOOK CONFINED TO ROUGHLY EAST OF I-65 SUNDAY MORNING
AS SUBSIDENCE BEGINS TO WORK INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA.
WILL HAVE LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS ROUGHLY EAST OF I-65 SUNDAY MORNING
THEN CHANCE POPS FOR THE REMAINING PORTION...WITH CHANCE POPS FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

HAVE KEPT THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN AFFECT ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT...THEN HAVE TRIMMED TO WATCH TO JUST BE IN EFFECT ROUGHLY
ALONG AND EAST OF I-65 SUNDAY MORNING AS QPF AMOUNTS ARE TOO LOW TO
SUPPORT THE WATCH ELSEWHERE. /29

SUNDAY NIGHT...A STRONG SHORTWAVE SWEEPS AROUND THE BASE OF THE
CLOSED LOW OVER THE US/CA BORDER...PUSHING A SURFACE FRONT TOWARDS
THE LOWER MISS RIVER. GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING SIGNIFICANT DRY
SLOTTING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH A DECREASE IN POPS OVER THE FA.
WITH DAYTIME HEATING SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR A FEW STORMS TO BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE...AM EXPECTING THIS TO BLEED INTO EARLY SUNDAY
EVENING. AM EXPECTING THIS ACTIVITY TO DECREASE WITH THE SETTING SUN
AND PRETTY MUCH GONE BY MIDNIGHT.

MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...THE SHORTWAVE SWEEPS NORTHEAST AHEAD OF
THE BORDER UPPER LOW...PUSHING THE FRONT ACROSS THE FA LATE MONDAY
INTO MONDAY EVENING...THEN STALLING OVER THE CENTRAL GULF BY TUESDAY
MORNING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES QUICKLY EAST FROM OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY...EASING THE
POST-FRONTAL WINDS (WHICH AM NOT EXPECTING TO BE THAT STRONG WITH THE
DRIVING DYNAMICS WELL NORTH OF THE FA)...SO A PLEASANT TUESDAY
MORNING IS EXPECTED. ANOTHER SEASONABLE WARM DAY MONDAY IS
EXPECTED...WITH TEMPS DROPPING TO AROUND SEASONAL MONDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...(TUESDAY ON)...TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LOW
OVER THE US/CA PLAINS MENDERS EASTWARD TO OVER THE GREAT
LAKES...THEN STALLS. THE PIECES OF ENERGY SWINGING AROUND THE BAS OF
THIS SYSTEM PUSH THE SURFACE HIGH FROM OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER
VALLEY TO OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. A SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE
NORTHER GULF COAST...WITH ONSHORE FLOW RETURNING TO THE FA BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING. TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT SEE TEMPS DROP TO A BIT
BELOW SEASONAL(70S TUESDAY...50S TUESDAY NIGHT)....BUT BEGIN TO
MODERATE BACK UP WEDNESDAY....WITH TEMPS IN THE 80S RETURNING FOR
WEDNESDAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A LOBE UP ENERGY SWIRLS AROUND
THE BASE OF THE GREAT LAKES UPPER LOW...PUSHING A WEAK BOUNDARY
TOWARDS...THEN PARTIALLY OVER...WITH THE BOUNDARY STALLING OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA BY THURSDAY EVENING. CONTINUE TO REBOUND TO
SEASONABLY WARMS VALUES WITH MOST OF THE FA UNDER ONSHORE FLOW. AS
THE BOUNDARY WORKS ITS WAY NEAR AND OVER THE FA...RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE AREA...WITH THE BEST CHANCE BEING
THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...UPPER ENERGY THAT HAD
ORGANIZED INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BREAKS DOWN AND
GETS DRAWN EAST BY MORE ENERGY SWEEPING AROUND THE GREAT LAKES
SYSTEM. GUIDANCE AGREES ON A SURFACE LOW FORMING AND MOVING EAST
FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. DISAGREEMENT IS WHERE. THE ECMWF IS
ADVERTISING THE LOW FORMING OVER THE OK/KS BORDER AND MOVING EAST-
SOUTHEAST TO OVER THE MS DELTA BY SATURDAY MORNING. THE GFS TAKES A
MORE SOUTHERLY/FASTER PATH...WITH DEVELOPMENT OVER TX AND MOVING EAST
NORTH OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST BEFORE ENDING UP OVER THE FA BY
SATURDAY MORNING. UP TO THIS POINT...BOTH ARE ADVERTISING RAIN
CONTINUING...WITH THE GFS IS ADVERTISING A COOLER SCENARIO...THOUGH
THAN THE ECMWF. HAVE TRIED BEST TO BLEND...WITH EITHER SCENARIO
POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...BOTH ARE ADVERTISING THE SYSTEM`S POST-
SYSTEM FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE FA SATURDAY AND THE FA DRYING OUT. GFS
IS ADVERTISING A STRONGER POST SYSTEM PUSH OF NORTHERLY AIR THAN THE
ECMWF. HAVE WENT IN THE MIDDLE FORE THE FORECAST...WITH THE RESULT
BEING TEMPS AROUND TO A BIT BELOW SEASONAL THE LAST TWO PERIODS OF
THE FORECAST.

MARINE...A LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY ONSHORE FLOW PREVAILS THROUGH
SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY AND MOVES ACROSS THE MARINE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH A
LIGHT TO MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. AN ONSHORE
FLOW RETURNS BY WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE HIGHER IN AND AROUND
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. /29

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      66  81  67  82  58 /  80  40  20  10  10
PENSACOLA   68  80  71  80  60 /  90  60  20  20  10
DESTIN      70  78  71  78  62 /  90  90  20  20  10
EVERGREEN   67  82  68  82  55 /  80  60  20  20  05
WAYNESBORO  65  83  65  79  54 /  70  30  30  10  10
CAMDEN      66  82  67  81  54 /  60  50  30  20  10
CRESTVIEW   67  80  68  82  58 /  90  80  20  20  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR CHOCTAW-CLARKE-
     MONROE-WASHINGTON-WILCOX.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR LOWER BALDWIN-
     LOWER MOBILE.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR BUTLER-CONECUH-
     COVINGTON-CRENSHAW-ESCAMBIA-LOWER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-
     UPPER BALDWIN-UPPER MOBILE.

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL
     ESCAMBIA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-COASTAL SANTA ROSA.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL ESCAMBIA-
     COASTAL OKALOOSA-COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND ESCAMBIA-INLAND
     OKALOOSA-INLAND SANTA ROSA.

MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR GEORGE-GREENE-PERRY-
     STONE-WAYNE.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMOB 190502 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1202 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

.AVIATION...
19.06Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF CYCLE...
WITH A DRIER AIR MASS MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST...THERE WILL BE A
PERIOD OF RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST THROUGH
ABOUT 19.09Z FOR THE KMOB AND KBFM TAF SITES...AND THROUGH ABOUT
19.11Z FOR THE KPNS TAF SITE. STILL EXPECTING A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AFTER THOSE TIME FRAMES
AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING A FOUR HOUR TIME SPAN WITH MVFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. SO ADDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR THIS LINE OF
PRECIPITATION...FOLLOWED BY MVFR CEILINGS AFTER THE RAIN THROUGH
ABOUT NOON. VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST. /22

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...FOR TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY...AN UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BEGINS TO BE ABSORBED
BY A LONGWAVE TROF WHICH EVOLVES OVER THE CENTRAL STATES. A SERIES OF
STRONG SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AND BRING HIGH RAIN CHANCES TO THE AREA DUE TO BOTH AN
MCS...MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM...EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE MARINE
AREA...AND ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE LOW WHICH DEVELOPS OVER THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND MOVES WELL NORTH OF THE AREA.
STORM SCALE INTERACTIONS AND SUB-SYNOPTIC FEATURES HAVE IMPACTED THE
FORECAST SUCH AS THE LINGERING AREA OF CONVECTION OVER THE MARINE
AREA...A REMNANT OF AN OVERNIGHT MCS...AND ANOTHER MCS WHICH APPEARS
TO BE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING SOUTH OF LOUISIANA. THE LATTER MCS HAS
DEVELOPED ON A 850 MB THETA-E RIDGE IN A REGION OF DIFFLUENT
850-300MB THICKNESS...AND BASED ON THE PLACEMENT OF THESE
FEATURES...EXPECT THE MCS TO TRANSLATE GENERALLY EASTWARD OVERNIGHT
AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF.

WITH ABUNDANT CONVECTION EXPECTED OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH MUCH
OF THE PERIOD...THIS WILL SIGNIFICANTLY LIMIT SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY OVER THE LAND PORTION OF THE AREA AND DO NOT SEE MUCH OF
A SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL AT LEAST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.  BETTER
INSTABILITY DOES DEVELOP LATER IN THE DAY ON SUNDAY...BUT FORCING IS
WEAKER OR NEGATIVE WHICH WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
SUFFICIENTLY THAT AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF A SEVERE STORM RISK ON
SUNDAY EITHER AS THE 850 MB FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY ALONG WITH
THE SURFACE FLOW AND NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG.  THE EXCEPTIONS TO
THIS ARE POSSIBLY OVER THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING SHOULD THE MCS TRANSLATE FURTHER NORTHWARD
ALLOWING FOR BETTER SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY...AND WILL NEED TO
MONITOR.

EXPECT CURRENTLY NEGLIGIBLE/ISOLATED PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN TO BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT AS THE LOUISIANA MARINE AREA MCS
STRENGTHENS...AND AS ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DEVELOPS FURTHER INLAND
OVER THE AREA. HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING...EXCEPT FOR GOOD CHANCE POPS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA...THEN CATEGORICAL POPS FOLLOW FOR ABOUT THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH LIKELY POPS ELSEWHERE AS THE EXPANDING MCS
ADVANCES FURTHER EASTWARD. QPF AMOUNTS LOOKS TO BE INCREASING
OVERNIGHT MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA...THEN THE
HEAVIER AMOUNTS LOOK CONFINED TO ROUGHLY EAST OF I-65 SUNDAY MORNING
AS SUBSIDENCE BEGINS TO WORK INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA.
WILL HAVE LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS ROUGHLY EAST OF I-65 SUNDAY MORNING
THEN CHANCE POPS FOR THE REMAINING PORTION...WITH CHANCE POPS FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

HAVE KEPT THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN AFFECT ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT...THEN HAVE TRIMMED TO WATCH TO JUST BE IN EFFECT ROUGHLY
ALONG AND EAST OF I-65 SUNDAY MORNING AS QPF AMOUNTS ARE TOO LOW TO
SUPPORT THE WATCH ELSEWHERE. /29

SUNDAY NIGHT...A STRONG SHORTWAVE SWEEPS AROUND THE BASE OF THE
CLOSED LOW OVER THE US/CA BORDER...PUSHING A SURFACE FRONT TOWARDS
THE LOWER MISS RIVER. GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING SIGNIFICANT DRY
SLOTTING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH A DECREASE IN POPS OVER THE FA.
WITH DAYTIME HEATING SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR A FEW STORMS TO BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE...AM EXPECTING THIS TO BLEED INTO EARLY SUNDAY
EVENING. AM EXPECTING THIS ACTIVITY TO DECREASE WITH THE SETTING SUN
AND PRETTY MUCH GONE BY MIDNIGHT.

MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...THE SHORTWAVE SWEEPS NORTHEAST AHEAD OF
THE BORDER UPPER LOW...PUSHING THE FRONT ACROSS THE FA LATE MONDAY
INTO MONDAY EVENING...THEN STALLING OVER THE CENTRAL GULF BY TUESDAY
MORNING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES QUICKLY EAST FROM OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY...EASING THE
POST-FRONTAL WINDS (WHICH AM NOT EXPECTING TO BE THAT STRONG WITH THE
DRIVING DYNAMICS WELL NORTH OF THE FA)...SO A PLEASANT TUESDAY
MORNING IS EXPECTED. ANOTHER SEASONABLE WARM DAY MONDAY IS
EXPECTED...WITH TEMPS DROPPING TO AROUND SEASONAL MONDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...(TUESDAY ON)...TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LOW
OVER THE US/CA PLAINS MENDERS EASTWARD TO OVER THE GREAT
LAKES...THEN STALLS. THE PIECES OF ENERGY SWINGING AROUND THE BAS OF
THIS SYSTEM PUSH THE SURFACE HIGH FROM OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER
VALLEY TO OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. A SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE
NORTHER GULF COAST...WITH ONSHORE FLOW RETURNING TO THE FA BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING. TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT SEE TEMPS DROP TO A BIT
BELOW SEASONAL(70S TUESDAY...50S TUESDAY NIGHT)....BUT BEGIN TO
MODERATE BACK UP WEDNESDAY....WITH TEMPS IN THE 80S RETURNING FOR
WEDNESDAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A LOBE UP ENERGY SWIRLS AROUND
THE BASE OF THE GREAT LAKES UPPER LOW...PUSHING A WEAK BOUNDARY
TOWARDS...THEN PARTIALLY OVER...WITH THE BOUNDARY STALLING OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA BY THURSDAY EVENING. CONTINUE TO REBOUND TO
SEASONABLY WARMS VALUES WITH MOST OF THE FA UNDER ONSHORE FLOW. AS
THE BOUNDARY WORKS ITS WAY NEAR AND OVER THE FA...RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE AREA...WITH THE BEST CHANCE BEING
THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...UPPER ENERGY THAT HAD
ORGANIZED INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BREAKS DOWN AND
GETS DRAWN EAST BY MORE ENERGY SWEEPING AROUND THE GREAT LAKES
SYSTEM. GUIDANCE AGREES ON A SURFACE LOW FORMING AND MOVING EAST
FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. DISAGREEMENT IS WHERE. THE ECMWF IS
ADVERTISING THE LOW FORMING OVER THE OK/KS BORDER AND MOVING EAST-
SOUTHEAST TO OVER THE MS DELTA BY SATURDAY MORNING. THE GFS TAKES A
MORE SOUTHERLY/FASTER PATH...WITH DEVELOPMENT OVER TX AND MOVING EAST
NORTH OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST BEFORE ENDING UP OVER THE FA BY
SATURDAY MORNING. UP TO THIS POINT...BOTH ARE ADVERTISING RAIN
CONTINUING...WITH THE GFS IS ADVERTISING A COOLER SCENARIO...THOUGH
THAN THE ECMWF. HAVE TRIED BEST TO BLEND...WITH EITHER SCENARIO
POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...BOTH ARE ADVERTISING THE SYSTEM`S POST-
SYSTEM FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE FA SATURDAY AND THE FA DRYING OUT. GFS
IS ADVERTISING A STRONGER POST SYSTEM PUSH OF NORTHERLY AIR THAN THE
ECMWF. HAVE WENT IN THE MIDDLE FORE THE FORECAST...WITH THE RESULT
BEING TEMPS AROUND TO A BIT BELOW SEASONAL THE LAST TWO PERIODS OF
THE FORECAST.

MARINE...A LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY ONSHORE FLOW PREVAILS THROUGH
SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY AND MOVES ACROSS THE MARINE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH A
LIGHT TO MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. AN ONSHORE
FLOW RETURNS BY WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE HIGHER IN AND AROUND
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. /29

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      66  81  67  82  58 /  80  40  20  10  10
PENSACOLA   68  80  71  80  60 /  90  60  20  20  10
DESTIN      70  78  71  78  62 /  90  90  20  20  10
EVERGREEN   67  82  68  82  55 /  80  60  20  20  05
WAYNESBORO  65  83  65  79  54 /  70  30  30  10  10
CAMDEN      66  82  67  81  54 /  60  50  30  20  10
CRESTVIEW   67  80  68  82  58 /  90  80  20  20  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR CHOCTAW-CLARKE-
     MONROE-WASHINGTON-WILCOX.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR LOWER BALDWIN-
     LOWER MOBILE.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR BUTLER-CONECUH-
     COVINGTON-CRENSHAW-ESCAMBIA-LOWER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-
     UPPER BALDWIN-UPPER MOBILE.

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL
     ESCAMBIA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-COASTAL SANTA ROSA.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL ESCAMBIA-
     COASTAL OKALOOSA-COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND ESCAMBIA-INLAND
     OKALOOSA-INLAND SANTA ROSA.

MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR GEORGE-GREENE-PERRY-
     STONE-WAYNE.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 190019 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
719 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.AVIATION...
19.00Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF CYCLE...
AN AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO WILL SPREAD INLAND ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COASTAL REGION
THIS EVENING...WITH MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING. PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP
AFTER MIDNIGHT BETWEEN THE PASSING RAIN SHOWERS...SO THERE COULD BE
PERIODS OF IFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS DEVELOPING MAINLY BETWEEN
18.10Z THROUGH 18.14Z. AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN WITH EMBEDDED MODERATE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AGAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...SO ADDED A PROB30 GROUP FROM 19.09Z TO
19.15Z. THE FOG WILL LIFT QUICKLY SUNDAY MORNING...WITH CEILINGS
LIFTING TO MVFR CRITERIA BY LATE MORNING. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS ON SUNDAY. /22

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...FOR TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY...AN UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS BEGINS TO BE ABSORBED BY A LONGWAVE TROF WHICH EVOLVES OVER
THE CENTRAL STATES.  A SERIES OF STRONG SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND BRING HIGH RAIN CHANCES
TO THE AREA DUE TO BOTH AN MCS...MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM...EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE MARINE AREA...AND ASSOCIATED WITH
A SURFACE LOW WHICH DEVELOPS OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
AND MOVES WELL NORTH OF THE AREA.  STORM SCALE INTERACTIONS AND
SUB-SYNOPTIC FEATURES HAVE IMPACTED THE FORECAST SUCH AS THE
LINGERING AREA OF CONVECTION OVER THE MARINE AREA...A REMNANT OF AN
OVERNIGHT MCS...AND ANOTHER MCS WHICH APPEARS TO BE CURRENTLY
DEVELOPING SOUTH OF LOUISIANA.  THE LATTER MCS HAS DEVELOPED ON A
850 MB THETA-E RIDGE IN A REGION OF DIFFLUENT 850-300MB
THICKNESS...AND BASED ON THE PLACEMENT OF THESE FEATURES...EXPECT
THE MCS TO TRANSLATE GENERALLY EASTWARD OVERNIGHT AND EVENTUALLY
INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF.

WITH ABUNDANT CONVECTION EXPECTED OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH MUCH
OF THE PERIOD...THIS WILL SIGNIFICANTLY LIMIT SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY OVER THE LAND PORTION OF THE AREA AND DO NOT SEE MUCH OF
A SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL AT LEAST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.  BETTER
INSTABILITY DOES DEVELOP LATER IN THE DAY ON SUNDAY...BUT FORCING IS
WEAKER OR NEGATIVE WHICH WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
SUFFICIENTLY THAT AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF A SEVERE STORM RISK ON
SUNDAY EITHER AS THE 850 MB FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY ALONG WITH
THE SURFACE FLOW AND NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG.  THE EXCEPTIONS TO
THIS ARE POSSIBLY OVER THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING SHOULD THE MCS TRANSLATE FURTHER NORTHWARD
ALLOWING FOR BETTER SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY...AND WILL NEED TO
MONITOR.

EXPECT CURRENTLY NEGLIGIBLE/ISOLATED PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN TO BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT AS THE LOUISIANA MARINE AREA MCS
STRENGTHENS...AND AS ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DEVELOPS FURTHER INLAND
OVER THE AREA. HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING...EXCEPT FOR GOOD CHANCE POPS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA...THEN CATEGORICAL POPS FOLLOW FOR ABOUT THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH LIKELY POPS ELSEWHERE AS THE EXPANDING MCS
ADVANCES FURTHER EASTWARD. QPF AMOUNTS LOOKS TO BE INCREASING
OVERNIGHT MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA...THEN THE
HEAVIER AMOUNTS LOOK CONFINED TO ROUGHLY EAST OF I-65 SUNDAY MORNING
AS SUBSIDENCE BEGINS TO WORK INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA.
WILL HAVE LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS ROUGHLY EAST OF I-65 SUNDAY MORNING
THEN CHANCE POPS FOR THE REMAINING PORTION...WITH CHANCE POPS FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

HAVE KEPT THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN AFFECT ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT...THEN HAVE TRIMMED TO WATCH TO JUST BE IN EFFECT ROUGHLY
ALONG AND EAST OF I-65 SUNDAY MORNING AS QPF AMOUNTS ARE TOO LOW TO
SUPPORT THE WATCH ELSEWHERE. /29

SUNDAY NIGHT...A STRONG SHORTWAVE SWEEPS AROUND THE BASE OF THE
CLOSED LOW OVER THE US/CA BORDER...PUSHING A SURFACE FRONT TOWARDS
THE LOWER MISS RIVER. GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING SIGNIFICANT DRY
SLOTTING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH A DECREASE IN POPS OVER THE FA.
WITH DAYTIME HEATING SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR A FEW STORMS TO BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE...AM EXPECTING THIS TO BLEED INTO EARLY SUNDAY
EVENING. AM EXPECTING THIS ACTIVITY TO DECREASE WITH THE SETTING SUN
AND PRETTY MUCH GONE BY MIDNIGHT.

MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...THE SHORTWAVE SWEEPS NORTHEAST AHEAD OF
THE BORDER UPPER LOW...PUSHING THE FRONT ACROSS THE FA LATE MONDAY
INTO MONDAY EVENING...THEN STALLING OVER THE CENTRAL GULF BY TUESDAY
MORNING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES QUICKLY EAST FROM OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY...EASING THE
POST-FRONTAL WINDS (WHICH AM NOT EXPECTING TO BE THAT STRONG WITH THE
DRIVING DYNAMICS WELL NORTH OF THE FA)...SO A PLEASANT TUESDAY
MORNING IS EXPECTED. ANOTHER SEASONABLE WARM DAY MONDAY IS
EXPECTED...WITH TEMPS DROPPING TO AROUND SEASONAL MONDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...(TUESDAY ON)...TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LOW
OVER THE US/CA PLAINS MENDERS EASTWARD TO OVER THE GREAT
LAKES...THEN STALLS. THE PIECES OF ENERGY SWINGING AROUND THE BAS OF
THIS SYSTEM PUSH THE SURFACE HIGH FROM OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER
VALLEY TO OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. A SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE
NORTHER GULF COAST...WITH ONSHORE FLOW RETURNING TO THE FA BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING. TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT SEE TEMPS DROP TO A BIT
BELOW SEASONAL(70S TUESDAY...50S TUESDAY NIGHT)....BUT BEGIN TO
MODERATE BACK UP WEDNESDAY....WITH TEMPS IN THE 80S RETURNING FOR
WEDNESDAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A LOBE UP ENERGY SWIRLS AROUND
THE BASE OF THE GREAT LAKES UPPER LOW...PUSHING A WEAK BOUNDARY
TOWARDS...THEN PARTIALLY OVER...WITH THE BOUNDARY STALLING OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA BY THURSDAY EVENING. CONTINUE TO REBOUND TO
SEASONABLY WARMS VALUES WITH MOST OF THE FA UNDER ONSHORE FLOW. AS
THE BOUNDARY WORKS ITS WAY NEAR AND OVER THE FA...RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE AREA...WITH THE BEST CHANCE BEING
THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...UPPER ENERGY THAT HAD
ORGANIZED INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BREAKS DOWN AND
GETS DRAWN EAST BY MORE ENERGY SWEEPING AROUND THE GREAT LAKES
SYSTEM. GUIDANCE AGREES ON A SURFACE LOW FORMING AND MOVING EAST
FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. DISAGREEMENT IS WHERE. THE ECMWF IS
ADVERTISING THE LOW FORMING OVER THE OK/KS BORDER AND MOVING EAST-
SOUTHEAST TO OVER THE MS DELTA BY SATURDAY MORNING. THE GFS TAKES A
MORE SOUTHERLY/FASTER PATH...WITH DEVELOPMENT OVER TX AND MOVING EAST
NORTH OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST BEFORE ENDING UP OVER THE FA BY
SATURDAY MORNING. UP TO THIS POINT...BOTH ARE ADVERTISING RAIN
CONTINUING...WITH THE GFS IS ADVERTISING A COOLER SCENARIO...THOUGH
THAN THE ECMWF. HAVE TRIED BEST TO BLEND...WITH EITHER SCENARIO
POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...BOTH ARE ADVERTISING THE SYSTEM`S POST-
SYSTEM FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE FA SATURDAY AND THE FA DRYING OUT. GFS
IS ADVERTISING A STRONGER POST SYSTEM PUSH OF NORTHERLY AIR THAN THE
ECMWF. HAVE WENT IN THE MIDDLE FORE THE FORECAST...WITH THE RESULT
BEING TEMPS AROUND TO A BIT BELOW SEASONAL THE LAST TWO PERIODS OF
THE FORECAST.

MARINE...A LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY ONSHORE FLOW PREVAILS THROUGH
SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY AND MOVES ACROSS THE MARINE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH A
LIGHT TO MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. AN ONSHORE
FLOW RETURNS BY WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE HIGHER IN AND AROUND
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. /29

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      66  81  67  82  58 /  80  40  20  10  10
PENSACOLA   68  80  71  80  60 /  90  60  20  20  10
DESTIN      70  78  71  78  62 /  90  90  20  20  10
EVERGREEN   67  82  68  82  55 /  80  60  20  20  05
WAYNESBORO  65  83  65  79  54 /  70  30  30  10  10
CAMDEN      66  82  67  81  54 /  60  50  30  20  10
CRESTVIEW   67  80  68  82  58 /  90  80  20  20  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR CHOCTAW-CLARKE-
     MONROE-WASHINGTON-WILCOX.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR LOWER BALDWIN-
     LOWER MOBILE.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR BUTLER-CONECUH-
     COVINGTON-CRENSHAW-ESCAMBIA-LOWER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-
     UPPER BALDWIN-UPPER MOBILE.

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL
     ESCAMBIA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-COASTAL SANTA ROSA.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL ESCAMBIA-
     COASTAL OKALOOSA-COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND ESCAMBIA-INLAND
     OKALOOSA-INLAND SANTA ROSA.

MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR GEORGE-GREENE-PERRY-
     STONE-WAYNE.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMOB 190019 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
719 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.AVIATION...
19.00Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF CYCLE...
AN AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO WILL SPREAD INLAND ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COASTAL REGION
THIS EVENING...WITH MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING. PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP
AFTER MIDNIGHT BETWEEN THE PASSING RAIN SHOWERS...SO THERE COULD BE
PERIODS OF IFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS DEVELOPING MAINLY BETWEEN
18.10Z THROUGH 18.14Z. AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN WITH EMBEDDED MODERATE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AGAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...SO ADDED A PROB30 GROUP FROM 19.09Z TO
19.15Z. THE FOG WILL LIFT QUICKLY SUNDAY MORNING...WITH CEILINGS
LIFTING TO MVFR CRITERIA BY LATE MORNING. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS ON SUNDAY. /22

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...FOR TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY...AN UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS BEGINS TO BE ABSORBED BY A LONGWAVE TROF WHICH EVOLVES OVER
THE CENTRAL STATES.  A SERIES OF STRONG SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND BRING HIGH RAIN CHANCES
TO THE AREA DUE TO BOTH AN MCS...MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM...EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE MARINE AREA...AND ASSOCIATED WITH
A SURFACE LOW WHICH DEVELOPS OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
AND MOVES WELL NORTH OF THE AREA.  STORM SCALE INTERACTIONS AND
SUB-SYNOPTIC FEATURES HAVE IMPACTED THE FORECAST SUCH AS THE
LINGERING AREA OF CONVECTION OVER THE MARINE AREA...A REMNANT OF AN
OVERNIGHT MCS...AND ANOTHER MCS WHICH APPEARS TO BE CURRENTLY
DEVELOPING SOUTH OF LOUISIANA.  THE LATTER MCS HAS DEVELOPED ON A
850 MB THETA-E RIDGE IN A REGION OF DIFFLUENT 850-300MB
THICKNESS...AND BASED ON THE PLACEMENT OF THESE FEATURES...EXPECT
THE MCS TO TRANSLATE GENERALLY EASTWARD OVERNIGHT AND EVENTUALLY
INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF.

WITH ABUNDANT CONVECTION EXPECTED OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH MUCH
OF THE PERIOD...THIS WILL SIGNIFICANTLY LIMIT SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY OVER THE LAND PORTION OF THE AREA AND DO NOT SEE MUCH OF
A SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL AT LEAST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.  BETTER
INSTABILITY DOES DEVELOP LATER IN THE DAY ON SUNDAY...BUT FORCING IS
WEAKER OR NEGATIVE WHICH WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
SUFFICIENTLY THAT AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF A SEVERE STORM RISK ON
SUNDAY EITHER AS THE 850 MB FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY ALONG WITH
THE SURFACE FLOW AND NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG.  THE EXCEPTIONS TO
THIS ARE POSSIBLY OVER THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING SHOULD THE MCS TRANSLATE FURTHER NORTHWARD
ALLOWING FOR BETTER SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY...AND WILL NEED TO
MONITOR.

EXPECT CURRENTLY NEGLIGIBLE/ISOLATED PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN TO BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT AS THE LOUISIANA MARINE AREA MCS
STRENGTHENS...AND AS ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DEVELOPS FURTHER INLAND
OVER THE AREA. HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING...EXCEPT FOR GOOD CHANCE POPS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA...THEN CATEGORICAL POPS FOLLOW FOR ABOUT THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH LIKELY POPS ELSEWHERE AS THE EXPANDING MCS
ADVANCES FURTHER EASTWARD. QPF AMOUNTS LOOKS TO BE INCREASING
OVERNIGHT MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA...THEN THE
HEAVIER AMOUNTS LOOK CONFINED TO ROUGHLY EAST OF I-65 SUNDAY MORNING
AS SUBSIDENCE BEGINS TO WORK INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA.
WILL HAVE LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS ROUGHLY EAST OF I-65 SUNDAY MORNING
THEN CHANCE POPS FOR THE REMAINING PORTION...WITH CHANCE POPS FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

HAVE KEPT THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN AFFECT ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT...THEN HAVE TRIMMED TO WATCH TO JUST BE IN EFFECT ROUGHLY
ALONG AND EAST OF I-65 SUNDAY MORNING AS QPF AMOUNTS ARE TOO LOW TO
SUPPORT THE WATCH ELSEWHERE. /29

SUNDAY NIGHT...A STRONG SHORTWAVE SWEEPS AROUND THE BASE OF THE
CLOSED LOW OVER THE US/CA BORDER...PUSHING A SURFACE FRONT TOWARDS
THE LOWER MISS RIVER. GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING SIGNIFICANT DRY
SLOTTING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH A DECREASE IN POPS OVER THE FA.
WITH DAYTIME HEATING SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR A FEW STORMS TO BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE...AM EXPECTING THIS TO BLEED INTO EARLY SUNDAY
EVENING. AM EXPECTING THIS ACTIVITY TO DECREASE WITH THE SETTING SUN
AND PRETTY MUCH GONE BY MIDNIGHT.

MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...THE SHORTWAVE SWEEPS NORTHEAST AHEAD OF
THE BORDER UPPER LOW...PUSHING THE FRONT ACROSS THE FA LATE MONDAY
INTO MONDAY EVENING...THEN STALLING OVER THE CENTRAL GULF BY TUESDAY
MORNING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES QUICKLY EAST FROM OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY...EASING THE
POST-FRONTAL WINDS (WHICH AM NOT EXPECTING TO BE THAT STRONG WITH THE
DRIVING DYNAMICS WELL NORTH OF THE FA)...SO A PLEASANT TUESDAY
MORNING IS EXPECTED. ANOTHER SEASONABLE WARM DAY MONDAY IS
EXPECTED...WITH TEMPS DROPPING TO AROUND SEASONAL MONDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...(TUESDAY ON)...TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LOW
OVER THE US/CA PLAINS MENDERS EASTWARD TO OVER THE GREAT
LAKES...THEN STALLS. THE PIECES OF ENERGY SWINGING AROUND THE BAS OF
THIS SYSTEM PUSH THE SURFACE HIGH FROM OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER
VALLEY TO OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. A SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE
NORTHER GULF COAST...WITH ONSHORE FLOW RETURNING TO THE FA BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING. TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT SEE TEMPS DROP TO A BIT
BELOW SEASONAL(70S TUESDAY...50S TUESDAY NIGHT)....BUT BEGIN TO
MODERATE BACK UP WEDNESDAY....WITH TEMPS IN THE 80S RETURNING FOR
WEDNESDAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A LOBE UP ENERGY SWIRLS AROUND
THE BASE OF THE GREAT LAKES UPPER LOW...PUSHING A WEAK BOUNDARY
TOWARDS...THEN PARTIALLY OVER...WITH THE BOUNDARY STALLING OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA BY THURSDAY EVENING. CONTINUE TO REBOUND TO
SEASONABLY WARMS VALUES WITH MOST OF THE FA UNDER ONSHORE FLOW. AS
THE BOUNDARY WORKS ITS WAY NEAR AND OVER THE FA...RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE AREA...WITH THE BEST CHANCE BEING
THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...UPPER ENERGY THAT HAD
ORGANIZED INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BREAKS DOWN AND
GETS DRAWN EAST BY MORE ENERGY SWEEPING AROUND THE GREAT LAKES
SYSTEM. GUIDANCE AGREES ON A SURFACE LOW FORMING AND MOVING EAST
FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. DISAGREEMENT IS WHERE. THE ECMWF IS
ADVERTISING THE LOW FORMING OVER THE OK/KS BORDER AND MOVING EAST-
SOUTHEAST TO OVER THE MS DELTA BY SATURDAY MORNING. THE GFS TAKES A
MORE SOUTHERLY/FASTER PATH...WITH DEVELOPMENT OVER TX AND MOVING EAST
NORTH OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST BEFORE ENDING UP OVER THE FA BY
SATURDAY MORNING. UP TO THIS POINT...BOTH ARE ADVERTISING RAIN
CONTINUING...WITH THE GFS IS ADVERTISING A COOLER SCENARIO...THOUGH
THAN THE ECMWF. HAVE TRIED BEST TO BLEND...WITH EITHER SCENARIO
POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...BOTH ARE ADVERTISING THE SYSTEM`S POST-
SYSTEM FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE FA SATURDAY AND THE FA DRYING OUT. GFS
IS ADVERTISING A STRONGER POST SYSTEM PUSH OF NORTHERLY AIR THAN THE
ECMWF. HAVE WENT IN THE MIDDLE FORE THE FORECAST...WITH THE RESULT
BEING TEMPS AROUND TO A BIT BELOW SEASONAL THE LAST TWO PERIODS OF
THE FORECAST.

MARINE...A LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY ONSHORE FLOW PREVAILS THROUGH
SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY AND MOVES ACROSS THE MARINE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH A
LIGHT TO MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. AN ONSHORE
FLOW RETURNS BY WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE HIGHER IN AND AROUND
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. /29

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      66  81  67  82  58 /  80  40  20  10  10
PENSACOLA   68  80  71  80  60 /  90  60  20  20  10
DESTIN      70  78  71  78  62 /  90  90  20  20  10
EVERGREEN   67  82  68  82  55 /  80  60  20  20  05
WAYNESBORO  65  83  65  79  54 /  70  30  30  10  10
CAMDEN      66  82  67  81  54 /  60  50  30  20  10
CRESTVIEW   67  80  68  82  58 /  90  80  20  20  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR CHOCTAW-CLARKE-
     MONROE-WASHINGTON-WILCOX.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR LOWER BALDWIN-
     LOWER MOBILE.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR BUTLER-CONECUH-
     COVINGTON-CRENSHAW-ESCAMBIA-LOWER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-
     UPPER BALDWIN-UPPER MOBILE.

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL
     ESCAMBIA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-COASTAL SANTA ROSA.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL ESCAMBIA-
     COASTAL OKALOOSA-COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND ESCAMBIA-INLAND
     OKALOOSA-INLAND SANTA ROSA.

MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR GEORGE-GREENE-PERRY-
     STONE-WAYNE.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 190019 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
719 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.AVIATION...
19.00Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF CYCLE...
AN AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO WILL SPREAD INLAND ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COASTAL REGION
THIS EVENING...WITH MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING. PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP
AFTER MIDNIGHT BETWEEN THE PASSING RAIN SHOWERS...SO THERE COULD BE
PERIODS OF IFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS DEVELOPING MAINLY BETWEEN
18.10Z THROUGH 18.14Z. AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN WITH EMBEDDED MODERATE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AGAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...SO ADDED A PROB30 GROUP FROM 19.09Z TO
19.15Z. THE FOG WILL LIFT QUICKLY SUNDAY MORNING...WITH CEILINGS
LIFTING TO MVFR CRITERIA BY LATE MORNING. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS ON SUNDAY. /22

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...FOR TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY...AN UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS BEGINS TO BE ABSORBED BY A LONGWAVE TROF WHICH EVOLVES OVER
THE CENTRAL STATES.  A SERIES OF STRONG SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND BRING HIGH RAIN CHANCES
TO THE AREA DUE TO BOTH AN MCS...MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM...EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE MARINE AREA...AND ASSOCIATED WITH
A SURFACE LOW WHICH DEVELOPS OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
AND MOVES WELL NORTH OF THE AREA.  STORM SCALE INTERACTIONS AND
SUB-SYNOPTIC FEATURES HAVE IMPACTED THE FORECAST SUCH AS THE
LINGERING AREA OF CONVECTION OVER THE MARINE AREA...A REMNANT OF AN
OVERNIGHT MCS...AND ANOTHER MCS WHICH APPEARS TO BE CURRENTLY
DEVELOPING SOUTH OF LOUISIANA.  THE LATTER MCS HAS DEVELOPED ON A
850 MB THETA-E RIDGE IN A REGION OF DIFFLUENT 850-300MB
THICKNESS...AND BASED ON THE PLACEMENT OF THESE FEATURES...EXPECT
THE MCS TO TRANSLATE GENERALLY EASTWARD OVERNIGHT AND EVENTUALLY
INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF.

WITH ABUNDANT CONVECTION EXPECTED OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH MUCH
OF THE PERIOD...THIS WILL SIGNIFICANTLY LIMIT SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY OVER THE LAND PORTION OF THE AREA AND DO NOT SEE MUCH OF
A SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL AT LEAST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.  BETTER
INSTABILITY DOES DEVELOP LATER IN THE DAY ON SUNDAY...BUT FORCING IS
WEAKER OR NEGATIVE WHICH WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
SUFFICIENTLY THAT AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF A SEVERE STORM RISK ON
SUNDAY EITHER AS THE 850 MB FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY ALONG WITH
THE SURFACE FLOW AND NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG.  THE EXCEPTIONS TO
THIS ARE POSSIBLY OVER THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING SHOULD THE MCS TRANSLATE FURTHER NORTHWARD
ALLOWING FOR BETTER SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY...AND WILL NEED TO
MONITOR.

EXPECT CURRENTLY NEGLIGIBLE/ISOLATED PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN TO BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT AS THE LOUISIANA MARINE AREA MCS
STRENGTHENS...AND AS ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DEVELOPS FURTHER INLAND
OVER THE AREA. HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING...EXCEPT FOR GOOD CHANCE POPS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA...THEN CATEGORICAL POPS FOLLOW FOR ABOUT THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH LIKELY POPS ELSEWHERE AS THE EXPANDING MCS
ADVANCES FURTHER EASTWARD. QPF AMOUNTS LOOKS TO BE INCREASING
OVERNIGHT MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA...THEN THE
HEAVIER AMOUNTS LOOK CONFINED TO ROUGHLY EAST OF I-65 SUNDAY MORNING
AS SUBSIDENCE BEGINS TO WORK INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA.
WILL HAVE LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS ROUGHLY EAST OF I-65 SUNDAY MORNING
THEN CHANCE POPS FOR THE REMAINING PORTION...WITH CHANCE POPS FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

HAVE KEPT THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN AFFECT ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT...THEN HAVE TRIMMED TO WATCH TO JUST BE IN EFFECT ROUGHLY
ALONG AND EAST OF I-65 SUNDAY MORNING AS QPF AMOUNTS ARE TOO LOW TO
SUPPORT THE WATCH ELSEWHERE. /29

SUNDAY NIGHT...A STRONG SHORTWAVE SWEEPS AROUND THE BASE OF THE
CLOSED LOW OVER THE US/CA BORDER...PUSHING A SURFACE FRONT TOWARDS
THE LOWER MISS RIVER. GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING SIGNIFICANT DRY
SLOTTING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH A DECREASE IN POPS OVER THE FA.
WITH DAYTIME HEATING SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR A FEW STORMS TO BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE...AM EXPECTING THIS TO BLEED INTO EARLY SUNDAY
EVENING. AM EXPECTING THIS ACTIVITY TO DECREASE WITH THE SETTING SUN
AND PRETTY MUCH GONE BY MIDNIGHT.

MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...THE SHORTWAVE SWEEPS NORTHEAST AHEAD OF
THE BORDER UPPER LOW...PUSHING THE FRONT ACROSS THE FA LATE MONDAY
INTO MONDAY EVENING...THEN STALLING OVER THE CENTRAL GULF BY TUESDAY
MORNING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES QUICKLY EAST FROM OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY...EASING THE
POST-FRONTAL WINDS (WHICH AM NOT EXPECTING TO BE THAT STRONG WITH THE
DRIVING DYNAMICS WELL NORTH OF THE FA)...SO A PLEASANT TUESDAY
MORNING IS EXPECTED. ANOTHER SEASONABLE WARM DAY MONDAY IS
EXPECTED...WITH TEMPS DROPPING TO AROUND SEASONAL MONDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...(TUESDAY ON)...TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LOW
OVER THE US/CA PLAINS MENDERS EASTWARD TO OVER THE GREAT
LAKES...THEN STALLS. THE PIECES OF ENERGY SWINGING AROUND THE BAS OF
THIS SYSTEM PUSH THE SURFACE HIGH FROM OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER
VALLEY TO OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. A SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE
NORTHER GULF COAST...WITH ONSHORE FLOW RETURNING TO THE FA BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING. TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT SEE TEMPS DROP TO A BIT
BELOW SEASONAL(70S TUESDAY...50S TUESDAY NIGHT)....BUT BEGIN TO
MODERATE BACK UP WEDNESDAY....WITH TEMPS IN THE 80S RETURNING FOR
WEDNESDAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A LOBE UP ENERGY SWIRLS AROUND
THE BASE OF THE GREAT LAKES UPPER LOW...PUSHING A WEAK BOUNDARY
TOWARDS...THEN PARTIALLY OVER...WITH THE BOUNDARY STALLING OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA BY THURSDAY EVENING. CONTINUE TO REBOUND TO
SEASONABLY WARMS VALUES WITH MOST OF THE FA UNDER ONSHORE FLOW. AS
THE BOUNDARY WORKS ITS WAY NEAR AND OVER THE FA...RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE AREA...WITH THE BEST CHANCE BEING
THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...UPPER ENERGY THAT HAD
ORGANIZED INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BREAKS DOWN AND
GETS DRAWN EAST BY MORE ENERGY SWEEPING AROUND THE GREAT LAKES
SYSTEM. GUIDANCE AGREES ON A SURFACE LOW FORMING AND MOVING EAST
FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. DISAGREEMENT IS WHERE. THE ECMWF IS
ADVERTISING THE LOW FORMING OVER THE OK/KS BORDER AND MOVING EAST-
SOUTHEAST TO OVER THE MS DELTA BY SATURDAY MORNING. THE GFS TAKES A
MORE SOUTHERLY/FASTER PATH...WITH DEVELOPMENT OVER TX AND MOVING EAST
NORTH OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST BEFORE ENDING UP OVER THE FA BY
SATURDAY MORNING. UP TO THIS POINT...BOTH ARE ADVERTISING RAIN
CONTINUING...WITH THE GFS IS ADVERTISING A COOLER SCENARIO...THOUGH
THAN THE ECMWF. HAVE TRIED BEST TO BLEND...WITH EITHER SCENARIO
POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...BOTH ARE ADVERTISING THE SYSTEM`S POST-
SYSTEM FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE FA SATURDAY AND THE FA DRYING OUT. GFS
IS ADVERTISING A STRONGER POST SYSTEM PUSH OF NORTHERLY AIR THAN THE
ECMWF. HAVE WENT IN THE MIDDLE FORE THE FORECAST...WITH THE RESULT
BEING TEMPS AROUND TO A BIT BELOW SEASONAL THE LAST TWO PERIODS OF
THE FORECAST.

MARINE...A LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY ONSHORE FLOW PREVAILS THROUGH
SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY AND MOVES ACROSS THE MARINE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH A
LIGHT TO MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. AN ONSHORE
FLOW RETURNS BY WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE HIGHER IN AND AROUND
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. /29

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      66  81  67  82  58 /  80  40  20  10  10
PENSACOLA   68  80  71  80  60 /  90  60  20  20  10
DESTIN      70  78  71  78  62 /  90  90  20  20  10
EVERGREEN   67  82  68  82  55 /  80  60  20  20  05
WAYNESBORO  65  83  65  79  54 /  70  30  30  10  10
CAMDEN      66  82  67  81  54 /  60  50  30  20  10
CRESTVIEW   67  80  68  82  58 /  90  80  20  20  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR CHOCTAW-CLARKE-
     MONROE-WASHINGTON-WILCOX.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR LOWER BALDWIN-
     LOWER MOBILE.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR BUTLER-CONECUH-
     COVINGTON-CRENSHAW-ESCAMBIA-LOWER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-
     UPPER BALDWIN-UPPER MOBILE.

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL
     ESCAMBIA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-COASTAL SANTA ROSA.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL ESCAMBIA-
     COASTAL OKALOOSA-COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND ESCAMBIA-INLAND
     OKALOOSA-INLAND SANTA ROSA.

MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR GEORGE-GREENE-PERRY-
     STONE-WAYNE.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMOB 190019 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
719 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.AVIATION...
19.00Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF CYCLE...
AN AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO WILL SPREAD INLAND ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COASTAL REGION
THIS EVENING...WITH MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING. PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP
AFTER MIDNIGHT BETWEEN THE PASSING RAIN SHOWERS...SO THERE COULD BE
PERIODS OF IFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS DEVELOPING MAINLY BETWEEN
18.10Z THROUGH 18.14Z. AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN WITH EMBEDDED MODERATE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AGAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...SO ADDED A PROB30 GROUP FROM 19.09Z TO
19.15Z. THE FOG WILL LIFT QUICKLY SUNDAY MORNING...WITH CEILINGS
LIFTING TO MVFR CRITERIA BY LATE MORNING. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS ON SUNDAY. /22

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...FOR TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY...AN UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS BEGINS TO BE ABSORBED BY A LONGWAVE TROF WHICH EVOLVES OVER
THE CENTRAL STATES.  A SERIES OF STRONG SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND BRING HIGH RAIN CHANCES
TO THE AREA DUE TO BOTH AN MCS...MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM...EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE MARINE AREA...AND ASSOCIATED WITH
A SURFACE LOW WHICH DEVELOPS OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
AND MOVES WELL NORTH OF THE AREA.  STORM SCALE INTERACTIONS AND
SUB-SYNOPTIC FEATURES HAVE IMPACTED THE FORECAST SUCH AS THE
LINGERING AREA OF CONVECTION OVER THE MARINE AREA...A REMNANT OF AN
OVERNIGHT MCS...AND ANOTHER MCS WHICH APPEARS TO BE CURRENTLY
DEVELOPING SOUTH OF LOUISIANA.  THE LATTER MCS HAS DEVELOPED ON A
850 MB THETA-E RIDGE IN A REGION OF DIFFLUENT 850-300MB
THICKNESS...AND BASED ON THE PLACEMENT OF THESE FEATURES...EXPECT
THE MCS TO TRANSLATE GENERALLY EASTWARD OVERNIGHT AND EVENTUALLY
INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF.

WITH ABUNDANT CONVECTION EXPECTED OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH MUCH
OF THE PERIOD...THIS WILL SIGNIFICANTLY LIMIT SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY OVER THE LAND PORTION OF THE AREA AND DO NOT SEE MUCH OF
A SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL AT LEAST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.  BETTER
INSTABILITY DOES DEVELOP LATER IN THE DAY ON SUNDAY...BUT FORCING IS
WEAKER OR NEGATIVE WHICH WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
SUFFICIENTLY THAT AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF A SEVERE STORM RISK ON
SUNDAY EITHER AS THE 850 MB FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY ALONG WITH
THE SURFACE FLOW AND NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG.  THE EXCEPTIONS TO
THIS ARE POSSIBLY OVER THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING SHOULD THE MCS TRANSLATE FURTHER NORTHWARD
ALLOWING FOR BETTER SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY...AND WILL NEED TO
MONITOR.

EXPECT CURRENTLY NEGLIGIBLE/ISOLATED PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN TO BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT AS THE LOUISIANA MARINE AREA MCS
STRENGTHENS...AND AS ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DEVELOPS FURTHER INLAND
OVER THE AREA. HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING...EXCEPT FOR GOOD CHANCE POPS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA...THEN CATEGORICAL POPS FOLLOW FOR ABOUT THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH LIKELY POPS ELSEWHERE AS THE EXPANDING MCS
ADVANCES FURTHER EASTWARD. QPF AMOUNTS LOOKS TO BE INCREASING
OVERNIGHT MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA...THEN THE
HEAVIER AMOUNTS LOOK CONFINED TO ROUGHLY EAST OF I-65 SUNDAY MORNING
AS SUBSIDENCE BEGINS TO WORK INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA.
WILL HAVE LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS ROUGHLY EAST OF I-65 SUNDAY MORNING
THEN CHANCE POPS FOR THE REMAINING PORTION...WITH CHANCE POPS FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

HAVE KEPT THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN AFFECT ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT...THEN HAVE TRIMMED TO WATCH TO JUST BE IN EFFECT ROUGHLY
ALONG AND EAST OF I-65 SUNDAY MORNING AS QPF AMOUNTS ARE TOO LOW TO
SUPPORT THE WATCH ELSEWHERE. /29

SUNDAY NIGHT...A STRONG SHORTWAVE SWEEPS AROUND THE BASE OF THE
CLOSED LOW OVER THE US/CA BORDER...PUSHING A SURFACE FRONT TOWARDS
THE LOWER MISS RIVER. GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING SIGNIFICANT DRY
SLOTTING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH A DECREASE IN POPS OVER THE FA.
WITH DAYTIME HEATING SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR A FEW STORMS TO BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE...AM EXPECTING THIS TO BLEED INTO EARLY SUNDAY
EVENING. AM EXPECTING THIS ACTIVITY TO DECREASE WITH THE SETTING SUN
AND PRETTY MUCH GONE BY MIDNIGHT.

MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...THE SHORTWAVE SWEEPS NORTHEAST AHEAD OF
THE BORDER UPPER LOW...PUSHING THE FRONT ACROSS THE FA LATE MONDAY
INTO MONDAY EVENING...THEN STALLING OVER THE CENTRAL GULF BY TUESDAY
MORNING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES QUICKLY EAST FROM OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY...EASING THE
POST-FRONTAL WINDS (WHICH AM NOT EXPECTING TO BE THAT STRONG WITH THE
DRIVING DYNAMICS WELL NORTH OF THE FA)...SO A PLEASANT TUESDAY
MORNING IS EXPECTED. ANOTHER SEASONABLE WARM DAY MONDAY IS
EXPECTED...WITH TEMPS DROPPING TO AROUND SEASONAL MONDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...(TUESDAY ON)...TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LOW
OVER THE US/CA PLAINS MENDERS EASTWARD TO OVER THE GREAT
LAKES...THEN STALLS. THE PIECES OF ENERGY SWINGING AROUND THE BAS OF
THIS SYSTEM PUSH THE SURFACE HIGH FROM OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER
VALLEY TO OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. A SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE
NORTHER GULF COAST...WITH ONSHORE FLOW RETURNING TO THE FA BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING. TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT SEE TEMPS DROP TO A BIT
BELOW SEASONAL(70S TUESDAY...50S TUESDAY NIGHT)....BUT BEGIN TO
MODERATE BACK UP WEDNESDAY....WITH TEMPS IN THE 80S RETURNING FOR
WEDNESDAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A LOBE UP ENERGY SWIRLS AROUND
THE BASE OF THE GREAT LAKES UPPER LOW...PUSHING A WEAK BOUNDARY
TOWARDS...THEN PARTIALLY OVER...WITH THE BOUNDARY STALLING OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA BY THURSDAY EVENING. CONTINUE TO REBOUND TO
SEASONABLY WARMS VALUES WITH MOST OF THE FA UNDER ONSHORE FLOW. AS
THE BOUNDARY WORKS ITS WAY NEAR AND OVER THE FA...RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE AREA...WITH THE BEST CHANCE BEING
THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...UPPER ENERGY THAT HAD
ORGANIZED INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BREAKS DOWN AND
GETS DRAWN EAST BY MORE ENERGY SWEEPING AROUND THE GREAT LAKES
SYSTEM. GUIDANCE AGREES ON A SURFACE LOW FORMING AND MOVING EAST
FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. DISAGREEMENT IS WHERE. THE ECMWF IS
ADVERTISING THE LOW FORMING OVER THE OK/KS BORDER AND MOVING EAST-
SOUTHEAST TO OVER THE MS DELTA BY SATURDAY MORNING. THE GFS TAKES A
MORE SOUTHERLY/FASTER PATH...WITH DEVELOPMENT OVER TX AND MOVING EAST
NORTH OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST BEFORE ENDING UP OVER THE FA BY
SATURDAY MORNING. UP TO THIS POINT...BOTH ARE ADVERTISING RAIN
CONTINUING...WITH THE GFS IS ADVERTISING A COOLER SCENARIO...THOUGH
THAN THE ECMWF. HAVE TRIED BEST TO BLEND...WITH EITHER SCENARIO
POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...BOTH ARE ADVERTISING THE SYSTEM`S POST-
SYSTEM FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE FA SATURDAY AND THE FA DRYING OUT. GFS
IS ADVERTISING A STRONGER POST SYSTEM PUSH OF NORTHERLY AIR THAN THE
ECMWF. HAVE WENT IN THE MIDDLE FORE THE FORECAST...WITH THE RESULT
BEING TEMPS AROUND TO A BIT BELOW SEASONAL THE LAST TWO PERIODS OF
THE FORECAST.

MARINE...A LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY ONSHORE FLOW PREVAILS THROUGH
SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY AND MOVES ACROSS THE MARINE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH A
LIGHT TO MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. AN ONSHORE
FLOW RETURNS BY WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE HIGHER IN AND AROUND
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. /29

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      66  81  67  82  58 /  80  40  20  10  10
PENSACOLA   68  80  71  80  60 /  90  60  20  20  10
DESTIN      70  78  71  78  62 /  90  90  20  20  10
EVERGREEN   67  82  68  82  55 /  80  60  20  20  05
WAYNESBORO  65  83  65  79  54 /  70  30  30  10  10
CAMDEN      66  82  67  81  54 /  60  50  30  20  10
CRESTVIEW   67  80  68  82  58 /  90  80  20  20  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR CHOCTAW-CLARKE-
     MONROE-WASHINGTON-WILCOX.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR LOWER BALDWIN-
     LOWER MOBILE.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR BUTLER-CONECUH-
     COVINGTON-CRENSHAW-ESCAMBIA-LOWER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-
     UPPER BALDWIN-UPPER MOBILE.

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL
     ESCAMBIA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-COASTAL SANTA ROSA.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL ESCAMBIA-
     COASTAL OKALOOSA-COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND ESCAMBIA-INLAND
     OKALOOSA-INLAND SANTA ROSA.

MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR GEORGE-GREENE-PERRY-
     STONE-WAYNE.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 182111
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
411 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...FOR TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY...AN UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS BEGINS TO BE ABSORBED BY A LONGWAVE TROF WHICH EVOLVES OVER
THE CENTRAL STATES.  A SERIES OF STRONG SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND BRING HIGH RAIN CHANCES
TO THE AREA DUE TO BOTH AN MCS...MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM...EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE MARINE AREA...AND ASSOCIATED WITH
A SURFACE LOW WHICH DEVELOPS OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
AND MOVES WELL NORTH OF THE AREA.  STORM SCALE INTERACTIONS AND
SUB-SYNOPTIC FEATURES HAVE IMPACTED THE FORECAST SUCH AS THE
LINGERING AREA OF CONVECTION OVER THE MARINE AREA...A REMNANT OF AN
OVERNIGHT MCS...AND ANOTHER MCS WHICH APPEARS TO BE CURRENTLY
DEVELOPING SOUTH OF LOUISIANA.  THE LATTER MCS HAS DEVELOPED ON A
850 MB THETA-E RIDGE IN A REGION OF DIFLUENT 850-300MB
THICKNESS...AND BASED ON THE PLACEMENT OF THESE FEATURES...EXPECT
THE MCS TO TRANSLATE GENERALLY EASTWARD OVERNIGHT AND EVENTUALLY
INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF.

WITH ABUNDANT CONVECTION EXPECTED OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH MUCH
OF THE PERIOD...THIS WILL SIGNIFICANTLY LIMIT SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY OVER THE LAND PORTION OF THE AREA AND DO NOT SEE MUCH OF
A SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL AT LEAST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.  BETTER
INSTABILITY DOES DEVELOP LATER IN THE DAY ON SUNDAY...BUT FORCING IS
WEAKER OR NEGATIVE WHICH WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
SUFFICIENTLY THAT AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF A SEVERE STORM RISK ON
SUNDAY EITHER AS THE 850 MB FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY ALONG WITH
THE SURFACE FLOW AND NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG.  THE EXCEPTIONS TO
THIS ARE POSSIBLY OVER THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING SHOULD THE MCS TRANSLATE FURTHER NORTHWARD
ALLOWING FOR BETTER SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY...AND WILL NEED TO
MONITOR.

EXPECT CURRENTLY NEGLIBLE/ISOLATED PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN TO BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT AS THE LOUISIANA MARINE AREA MCS
STRENGTHENS...AND AS ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DEVELOPS FURTHER INLAND
OVER THE AREA.  HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING...EXCEPT FOR GOOD CHANCE POPS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA...THEN CATEGORICAL POPS FOLLOW FOR ABOUT THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH LIKELY POPS ELSEWHERE AS THE EXPANDING
MCS ADVANCES FURTHER EASTWARD.  QPF AMOUNTS LOOKS TO BE INCREASING
OVERNIGHT MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA...THEN THE
HEAVIER AMOUNTS LOOK CONFINED TO ROUGHLY EAST OF I-65 SUNDAY MORNING
AS SUBSIDENCE BEGINS TO WORK INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA.
WILL HAVE LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS ROUGHLY EAST OF I-65 SUNDAY
MORNING THEN CHANCE POPS FOR THE REMAINING PORTION...WITH CHANCE
POPS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

HAVE KEPT THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN AFFECT ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT...THEN HAVE TRIMMED TO WATCH TO JUST BE IN EFFECT ROUGHLY
ALONG AND EAST OF I-65 SUNDAY MORNING AS QPF AMOUNTS ARE TOO LOW TO
SUPPORT THE WATCH ELSEWHERE. /29

SUNDAY NIGHT...A STRONG SHORTWAVE SWEEPS AROUND THE BASE OF THE
CLOSED LOW OVER THE US/CA BORDER...PUSHING A SURFACE FRONT TOWARDS
THE LOWER MISS RIVER. GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING SIGNIFICANT DRY
SLOTTING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH A DECREASE IN POPS OVER THE FA.
WITH DAYTIME HEATING SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR A FEW STORMS TO BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE...AM EXPECTING THIS TO BLEED INTO EARLY SUNDAY
EVENING. AM EXPECTING THIS ACTIVITY TO DECREASE WITH THE SETTING SUN
AND PRETTY MUCH GONE BY MIDNIGHT.

MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...THE SHORTWAVE SWEEPS NORTHEAST AHEAD OF
THE BORDER UPPER LOW...PUSHING THE FRONT ACROSS THE FA LATE MONDAY
INTO MONDAY EVENING...THEN STALLING OVER THE CENTRAL GULF BY TUESDAY
MORNING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES QUICKLY EAST FROM OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY...EASING THE
POST-FRONTAL WINDS (WHICH AM NOT EXPECTING TO BE THAT STRONG WITH THEDRIVING
DYNAMICS WELL NORTH OF THE FA)...SO A PLEASANT TUESDAY MORNING IS
EXPECTED. ANOTHER SEASONABLE WARM DAY MONDAY IS EXPECTED...WITH TEMPS
DROPPING TO AROUND SEASONAL MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY ON)...TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LOW
OVER THE US/CA PLAINS MENDERS EASTWARD TO OVER THE GREAT
LAKES...THEN STALLS. THE PIECES OF ENERGY SWINGING AROUND THE BAS OF
THIS SYSTEM PUSH THE SURFACE HIGH FROM OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER
VALLEY TO OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. A SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE
NORTHER GULF COAST...WITH ONSHORE FLOW RETURNING TO THE FA BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING. TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT SEE TEMPS DROP TO A BIT
BELOW SEASONAL(70S TUESDAY...50S TUESDAY NIGHT)....BUT BEGIN TO
MODERATE BACK UP WEDNESDAY....WITH TEMPS IN THE 80S RETURNING FOR
WEDNESDAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A LOBE UP ENERGY SWIRLS AROUND
THE BASE OF THE GREAT LAKES UPPER LOW...PUSHING A WEAK BOUNDARY
TOWARDS...THEN PARTIALLY OVER...WITH THE BOUNDARY STALLING OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA BY THURSDAY EVENING. CONTINUE TO REBOUND TO
SEASONABLY WARMS VALUES WITH MOST OF THE FA UNDER ONSHORE FLOW. AS
THE BOUNDARY WORKS ITS WAY NEAR AND OVER THE FA...RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE AREA...WITH THE BEST CHANCE BEING
THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...UPPER ENERGY THAT HAD
ORGANIZED INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BREAKS DOWN AND
GETS DRAWN EAST BY MORE ENERGY SWEEPING AROUND THE GREAT LAKES
SYSTEM. GUIDANCE AGREES ON A SURFACE LOW FORMING AND MOVING EAST
FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. DISAGREEMENT IS WHERE. THE ECMWF IS
ADVERTISING THE LOW FORMING OVER THE OK/KS BORDER AND MOVING EAST-
SOUTHEAST TO OVER THE MS DELTA BY SATURDAY MORNING. THE GFS TAKES A
MORE SOUTHERLY/FASTER PATH...WITH DEVELOPMENT OVER TX AND MOVING EAST
NORTH OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST BEFORE ENDING UP OVER THE FA BY
SATURDAY MORNING. UP TO THIS POINT...BOTH ARE ADVERTISING RAIN
CONTINUING...WITH THE GFS IS ADVERTISING A COOLER SCENARIO...THOUGH
THAN THE ECMWF. HAVE TRIED BEST TO BLEND...WITH EITHER SCENARIO
POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...BOTH ARE ADVERTISING THE SYSTEM`S POST-
SYSTEM FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE FA SATURDAY AND THE FA DRYING OUT. GFS
IS ADVERTISING A STRONGER POST SYSTEM PUSH OF NORTHERLY AIR THAN THE
ECMWF. HAVE WENT IN THE MIDDLE FORE THE FORECAST...WITH THE RESULT
BEING TEMPS AROUND TO A BIT BELOW SEASONAL THE LAST TWO PERIODS OF
THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z ISSUANCE...MVFR/VFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED FOR TODAY WITH MAINLY
IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...THEN VFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOP DURING SUNDAY MORNING. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS BECOME SOUTHWEST ON
MONDAY. WILL HAVE PREVAILING LIGHT RAIN NEAR THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON
AND THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT BEFORE ENDING ON SUNDAY MORNING. /29

&&

.MARINE...A LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY ONSHORE FLOW PREVAILS THROUGH
SUNDAY.  A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY AND MOVES ACROSS THE MARINE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH A
LIGHT TO MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.  AN
ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS BY WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.  WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE HIGHER IN
AND AROUND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. /29

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      66  81  67  82  58 /  80  40  20  10  10
PENSACOLA   68  80  71  80  60 /  90  60  20  20  10
DESTIN      70  78  71  78  62 /  90  90  20  20  10
EVERGREEN   67  82  68  82  55 /  80  60  20  20  05
WAYNESBORO  65  83  65  79  54 /  70  30  30  10  10
CAMDEN      66  82  67  81  54 /  60  50  30  20  10
CRESTVIEW   67  80  68  82  58 /  90  80  20  20  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
     EVENING FOR BUTLER-CHOCTAW-CLARKE-CONECUH-COVINGTON-
     CRENSHAW-ESCAMBIA-LOWER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-MONROE-UPPER
     BALDWIN-UPPER MOBILE-WASHINGTON-WILCOX.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR LOWER BALDWIN-
     LOWER MOBILE.

FL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
     EVENING FOR COASTAL ESCAMBIA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-COASTAL SANTA
     ROSA-INLAND ESCAMBIA-INLAND OKALOOSA-INLAND SANTA ROSA.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL
     ESCAMBIA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-COASTAL SANTA ROSA.

MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
     EVENING FOR GEORGE-GREENE-PERRY-STONE-WAYNE.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 182111
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
411 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...FOR TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY...AN UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS BEGINS TO BE ABSORBED BY A LONGWAVE TROF WHICH EVOLVES OVER
THE CENTRAL STATES.  A SERIES OF STRONG SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND BRING HIGH RAIN CHANCES
TO THE AREA DUE TO BOTH AN MCS...MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM...EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE MARINE AREA...AND ASSOCIATED WITH
A SURFACE LOW WHICH DEVELOPS OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
AND MOVES WELL NORTH OF THE AREA.  STORM SCALE INTERACTIONS AND
SUB-SYNOPTIC FEATURES HAVE IMPACTED THE FORECAST SUCH AS THE
LINGERING AREA OF CONVECTION OVER THE MARINE AREA...A REMNANT OF AN
OVERNIGHT MCS...AND ANOTHER MCS WHICH APPEARS TO BE CURRENTLY
DEVELOPING SOUTH OF LOUISIANA.  THE LATTER MCS HAS DEVELOPED ON A
850 MB THETA-E RIDGE IN A REGION OF DIFLUENT 850-300MB
THICKNESS...AND BASED ON THE PLACEMENT OF THESE FEATURES...EXPECT
THE MCS TO TRANSLATE GENERALLY EASTWARD OVERNIGHT AND EVENTUALLY
INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF.

WITH ABUNDANT CONVECTION EXPECTED OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH MUCH
OF THE PERIOD...THIS WILL SIGNIFICANTLY LIMIT SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY OVER THE LAND PORTION OF THE AREA AND DO NOT SEE MUCH OF
A SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL AT LEAST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.  BETTER
INSTABILITY DOES DEVELOP LATER IN THE DAY ON SUNDAY...BUT FORCING IS
WEAKER OR NEGATIVE WHICH WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
SUFFICIENTLY THAT AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF A SEVERE STORM RISK ON
SUNDAY EITHER AS THE 850 MB FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY ALONG WITH
THE SURFACE FLOW AND NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG.  THE EXCEPTIONS TO
THIS ARE POSSIBLY OVER THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING SHOULD THE MCS TRANSLATE FURTHER NORTHWARD
ALLOWING FOR BETTER SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY...AND WILL NEED TO
MONITOR.

EXPECT CURRENTLY NEGLIBLE/ISOLATED PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN TO BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT AS THE LOUISIANA MARINE AREA MCS
STRENGTHENS...AND AS ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DEVELOPS FURTHER INLAND
OVER THE AREA.  HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING...EXCEPT FOR GOOD CHANCE POPS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA...THEN CATEGORICAL POPS FOLLOW FOR ABOUT THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH LIKELY POPS ELSEWHERE AS THE EXPANDING
MCS ADVANCES FURTHER EASTWARD.  QPF AMOUNTS LOOKS TO BE INCREASING
OVERNIGHT MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA...THEN THE
HEAVIER AMOUNTS LOOK CONFINED TO ROUGHLY EAST OF I-65 SUNDAY MORNING
AS SUBSIDENCE BEGINS TO WORK INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA.
WILL HAVE LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS ROUGHLY EAST OF I-65 SUNDAY
MORNING THEN CHANCE POPS FOR THE REMAINING PORTION...WITH CHANCE
POPS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

HAVE KEPT THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN AFFECT ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT...THEN HAVE TRIMMED TO WATCH TO JUST BE IN EFFECT ROUGHLY
ALONG AND EAST OF I-65 SUNDAY MORNING AS QPF AMOUNTS ARE TOO LOW TO
SUPPORT THE WATCH ELSEWHERE. /29

SUNDAY NIGHT...A STRONG SHORTWAVE SWEEPS AROUND THE BASE OF THE
CLOSED LOW OVER THE US/CA BORDER...PUSHING A SURFACE FRONT TOWARDS
THE LOWER MISS RIVER. GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING SIGNIFICANT DRY
SLOTTING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH A DECREASE IN POPS OVER THE FA.
WITH DAYTIME HEATING SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR A FEW STORMS TO BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE...AM EXPECTING THIS TO BLEED INTO EARLY SUNDAY
EVENING. AM EXPECTING THIS ACTIVITY TO DECREASE WITH THE SETTING SUN
AND PRETTY MUCH GONE BY MIDNIGHT.

MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...THE SHORTWAVE SWEEPS NORTHEAST AHEAD OF
THE BORDER UPPER LOW...PUSHING THE FRONT ACROSS THE FA LATE MONDAY
INTO MONDAY EVENING...THEN STALLING OVER THE CENTRAL GULF BY TUESDAY
MORNING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES QUICKLY EAST FROM OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY...EASING THE
POST-FRONTAL WINDS (WHICH AM NOT EXPECTING TO BE THAT STRONG WITH THEDRIVING
DYNAMICS WELL NORTH OF THE FA)...SO A PLEASANT TUESDAY MORNING IS
EXPECTED. ANOTHER SEASONABLE WARM DAY MONDAY IS EXPECTED...WITH TEMPS
DROPPING TO AROUND SEASONAL MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY ON)...TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LOW
OVER THE US/CA PLAINS MENDERS EASTWARD TO OVER THE GREAT
LAKES...THEN STALLS. THE PIECES OF ENERGY SWINGING AROUND THE BAS OF
THIS SYSTEM PUSH THE SURFACE HIGH FROM OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER
VALLEY TO OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. A SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE
NORTHER GULF COAST...WITH ONSHORE FLOW RETURNING TO THE FA BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING. TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT SEE TEMPS DROP TO A BIT
BELOW SEASONAL(70S TUESDAY...50S TUESDAY NIGHT)....BUT BEGIN TO
MODERATE BACK UP WEDNESDAY....WITH TEMPS IN THE 80S RETURNING FOR
WEDNESDAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A LOBE UP ENERGY SWIRLS AROUND
THE BASE OF THE GREAT LAKES UPPER LOW...PUSHING A WEAK BOUNDARY
TOWARDS...THEN PARTIALLY OVER...WITH THE BOUNDARY STALLING OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA BY THURSDAY EVENING. CONTINUE TO REBOUND TO
SEASONABLY WARMS VALUES WITH MOST OF THE FA UNDER ONSHORE FLOW. AS
THE BOUNDARY WORKS ITS WAY NEAR AND OVER THE FA...RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE AREA...WITH THE BEST CHANCE BEING
THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...UPPER ENERGY THAT HAD
ORGANIZED INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BREAKS DOWN AND
GETS DRAWN EAST BY MORE ENERGY SWEEPING AROUND THE GREAT LAKES
SYSTEM. GUIDANCE AGREES ON A SURFACE LOW FORMING AND MOVING EAST
FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. DISAGREEMENT IS WHERE. THE ECMWF IS
ADVERTISING THE LOW FORMING OVER THE OK/KS BORDER AND MOVING EAST-
SOUTHEAST TO OVER THE MS DELTA BY SATURDAY MORNING. THE GFS TAKES A
MORE SOUTHERLY/FASTER PATH...WITH DEVELOPMENT OVER TX AND MOVING EAST
NORTH OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST BEFORE ENDING UP OVER THE FA BY
SATURDAY MORNING. UP TO THIS POINT...BOTH ARE ADVERTISING RAIN
CONTINUING...WITH THE GFS IS ADVERTISING A COOLER SCENARIO...THOUGH
THAN THE ECMWF. HAVE TRIED BEST TO BLEND...WITH EITHER SCENARIO
POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...BOTH ARE ADVERTISING THE SYSTEM`S POST-
SYSTEM FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE FA SATURDAY AND THE FA DRYING OUT. GFS
IS ADVERTISING A STRONGER POST SYSTEM PUSH OF NORTHERLY AIR THAN THE
ECMWF. HAVE WENT IN THE MIDDLE FORE THE FORECAST...WITH THE RESULT
BEING TEMPS AROUND TO A BIT BELOW SEASONAL THE LAST TWO PERIODS OF
THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z ISSUANCE...MVFR/VFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED FOR TODAY WITH MAINLY
IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...THEN VFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOP DURING SUNDAY MORNING. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS BECOME SOUTHWEST ON
MONDAY. WILL HAVE PREVAILING LIGHT RAIN NEAR THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON
AND THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT BEFORE ENDING ON SUNDAY MORNING. /29

&&

.MARINE...A LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY ONSHORE FLOW PREVAILS THROUGH
SUNDAY.  A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY AND MOVES ACROSS THE MARINE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH A
LIGHT TO MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.  AN
ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS BY WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.  WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE HIGHER IN
AND AROUND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. /29

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      66  81  67  82  58 /  80  40  20  10  10
PENSACOLA   68  80  71  80  60 /  90  60  20  20  10
DESTIN      70  78  71  78  62 /  90  90  20  20  10
EVERGREEN   67  82  68  82  55 /  80  60  20  20  05
WAYNESBORO  65  83  65  79  54 /  70  30  30  10  10
CAMDEN      66  82  67  81  54 /  60  50  30  20  10
CRESTVIEW   67  80  68  82  58 /  90  80  20  20  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
     EVENING FOR BUTLER-CHOCTAW-CLARKE-CONECUH-COVINGTON-
     CRENSHAW-ESCAMBIA-LOWER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-MONROE-UPPER
     BALDWIN-UPPER MOBILE-WASHINGTON-WILCOX.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR LOWER BALDWIN-
     LOWER MOBILE.

FL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
     EVENING FOR COASTAL ESCAMBIA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-COASTAL SANTA
     ROSA-INLAND ESCAMBIA-INLAND OKALOOSA-INLAND SANTA ROSA.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL
     ESCAMBIA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-COASTAL SANTA ROSA.

MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
     EVENING FOR GEORGE-GREENE-PERRY-STONE-WAYNE.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMOB 182111
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
411 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...FOR TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY...AN UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS BEGINS TO BE ABSORBED BY A LONGWAVE TROF WHICH EVOLVES OVER
THE CENTRAL STATES.  A SERIES OF STRONG SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND BRING HIGH RAIN CHANCES
TO THE AREA DUE TO BOTH AN MCS...MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM...EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE MARINE AREA...AND ASSOCIATED WITH
A SURFACE LOW WHICH DEVELOPS OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
AND MOVES WELL NORTH OF THE AREA.  STORM SCALE INTERACTIONS AND
SUB-SYNOPTIC FEATURES HAVE IMPACTED THE FORECAST SUCH AS THE
LINGERING AREA OF CONVECTION OVER THE MARINE AREA...A REMNANT OF AN
OVERNIGHT MCS...AND ANOTHER MCS WHICH APPEARS TO BE CURRENTLY
DEVELOPING SOUTH OF LOUISIANA.  THE LATTER MCS HAS DEVELOPED ON A
850 MB THETA-E RIDGE IN A REGION OF DIFLUENT 850-300MB
THICKNESS...AND BASED ON THE PLACEMENT OF THESE FEATURES...EXPECT
THE MCS TO TRANSLATE GENERALLY EASTWARD OVERNIGHT AND EVENTUALLY
INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF.

WITH ABUNDANT CONVECTION EXPECTED OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH MUCH
OF THE PERIOD...THIS WILL SIGNIFICANTLY LIMIT SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY OVER THE LAND PORTION OF THE AREA AND DO NOT SEE MUCH OF
A SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL AT LEAST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.  BETTER
INSTABILITY DOES DEVELOP LATER IN THE DAY ON SUNDAY...BUT FORCING IS
WEAKER OR NEGATIVE WHICH WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
SUFFICIENTLY THAT AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF A SEVERE STORM RISK ON
SUNDAY EITHER AS THE 850 MB FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY ALONG WITH
THE SURFACE FLOW AND NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG.  THE EXCEPTIONS TO
THIS ARE POSSIBLY OVER THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING SHOULD THE MCS TRANSLATE FURTHER NORTHWARD
ALLOWING FOR BETTER SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY...AND WILL NEED TO
MONITOR.

EXPECT CURRENTLY NEGLIBLE/ISOLATED PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN TO BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT AS THE LOUISIANA MARINE AREA MCS
STRENGTHENS...AND AS ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DEVELOPS FURTHER INLAND
OVER THE AREA.  HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING...EXCEPT FOR GOOD CHANCE POPS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA...THEN CATEGORICAL POPS FOLLOW FOR ABOUT THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH LIKELY POPS ELSEWHERE AS THE EXPANDING
MCS ADVANCES FURTHER EASTWARD.  QPF AMOUNTS LOOKS TO BE INCREASING
OVERNIGHT MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA...THEN THE
HEAVIER AMOUNTS LOOK CONFINED TO ROUGHLY EAST OF I-65 SUNDAY MORNING
AS SUBSIDENCE BEGINS TO WORK INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA.
WILL HAVE LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS ROUGHLY EAST OF I-65 SUNDAY
MORNING THEN CHANCE POPS FOR THE REMAINING PORTION...WITH CHANCE
POPS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

HAVE KEPT THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN AFFECT ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT...THEN HAVE TRIMMED TO WATCH TO JUST BE IN EFFECT ROUGHLY
ALONG AND EAST OF I-65 SUNDAY MORNING AS QPF AMOUNTS ARE TOO LOW TO
SUPPORT THE WATCH ELSEWHERE. /29

SUNDAY NIGHT...A STRONG SHORTWAVE SWEEPS AROUND THE BASE OF THE
CLOSED LOW OVER THE US/CA BORDER...PUSHING A SURFACE FRONT TOWARDS
THE LOWER MISS RIVER. GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING SIGNIFICANT DRY
SLOTTING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH A DECREASE IN POPS OVER THE FA.
WITH DAYTIME HEATING SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR A FEW STORMS TO BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE...AM EXPECTING THIS TO BLEED INTO EARLY SUNDAY
EVENING. AM EXPECTING THIS ACTIVITY TO DECREASE WITH THE SETTING SUN
AND PRETTY MUCH GONE BY MIDNIGHT.

MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...THE SHORTWAVE SWEEPS NORTHEAST AHEAD OF
THE BORDER UPPER LOW...PUSHING THE FRONT ACROSS THE FA LATE MONDAY
INTO MONDAY EVENING...THEN STALLING OVER THE CENTRAL GULF BY TUESDAY
MORNING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES QUICKLY EAST FROM OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY...EASING THE
POST-FRONTAL WINDS (WHICH AM NOT EXPECTING TO BE THAT STRONG WITH THEDRIVING
DYNAMICS WELL NORTH OF THE FA)...SO A PLEASANT TUESDAY MORNING IS
EXPECTED. ANOTHER SEASONABLE WARM DAY MONDAY IS EXPECTED...WITH TEMPS
DROPPING TO AROUND SEASONAL MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY ON)...TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LOW
OVER THE US/CA PLAINS MENDERS EASTWARD TO OVER THE GREAT
LAKES...THEN STALLS. THE PIECES OF ENERGY SWINGING AROUND THE BAS OF
THIS SYSTEM PUSH THE SURFACE HIGH FROM OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER
VALLEY TO OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. A SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE
NORTHER GULF COAST...WITH ONSHORE FLOW RETURNING TO THE FA BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING. TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT SEE TEMPS DROP TO A BIT
BELOW SEASONAL(70S TUESDAY...50S TUESDAY NIGHT)....BUT BEGIN TO
MODERATE BACK UP WEDNESDAY....WITH TEMPS IN THE 80S RETURNING FOR
WEDNESDAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A LOBE UP ENERGY SWIRLS AROUND
THE BASE OF THE GREAT LAKES UPPER LOW...PUSHING A WEAK BOUNDARY
TOWARDS...THEN PARTIALLY OVER...WITH THE BOUNDARY STALLING OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA BY THURSDAY EVENING. CONTINUE TO REBOUND TO
SEASONABLY WARMS VALUES WITH MOST OF THE FA UNDER ONSHORE FLOW. AS
THE BOUNDARY WORKS ITS WAY NEAR AND OVER THE FA...RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE AREA...WITH THE BEST CHANCE BEING
THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...UPPER ENERGY THAT HAD
ORGANIZED INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BREAKS DOWN AND
GETS DRAWN EAST BY MORE ENERGY SWEEPING AROUND THE GREAT LAKES
SYSTEM. GUIDANCE AGREES ON A SURFACE LOW FORMING AND MOVING EAST
FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. DISAGREEMENT IS WHERE. THE ECMWF IS
ADVERTISING THE LOW FORMING OVER THE OK/KS BORDER AND MOVING EAST-
SOUTHEAST TO OVER THE MS DELTA BY SATURDAY MORNING. THE GFS TAKES A
MORE SOUTHERLY/FASTER PATH...WITH DEVELOPMENT OVER TX AND MOVING EAST
NORTH OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST BEFORE ENDING UP OVER THE FA BY
SATURDAY MORNING. UP TO THIS POINT...BOTH ARE ADVERTISING RAIN
CONTINUING...WITH THE GFS IS ADVERTISING A COOLER SCENARIO...THOUGH
THAN THE ECMWF. HAVE TRIED BEST TO BLEND...WITH EITHER SCENARIO
POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...BOTH ARE ADVERTISING THE SYSTEM`S POST-
SYSTEM FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE FA SATURDAY AND THE FA DRYING OUT. GFS
IS ADVERTISING A STRONGER POST SYSTEM PUSH OF NORTHERLY AIR THAN THE
ECMWF. HAVE WENT IN THE MIDDLE FORE THE FORECAST...WITH THE RESULT
BEING TEMPS AROUND TO A BIT BELOW SEASONAL THE LAST TWO PERIODS OF
THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z ISSUANCE...MVFR/VFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED FOR TODAY WITH MAINLY
IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...THEN VFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOP DURING SUNDAY MORNING. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS BECOME SOUTHWEST ON
MONDAY. WILL HAVE PREVAILING LIGHT RAIN NEAR THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON
AND THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT BEFORE ENDING ON SUNDAY MORNING. /29

&&

.MARINE...A LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY ONSHORE FLOW PREVAILS THROUGH
SUNDAY.  A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY AND MOVES ACROSS THE MARINE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH A
LIGHT TO MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.  AN
ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS BY WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.  WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE HIGHER IN
AND AROUND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. /29

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      66  81  67  82  58 /  80  40  20  10  10
PENSACOLA   68  80  71  80  60 /  90  60  20  20  10
DESTIN      70  78  71  78  62 /  90  90  20  20  10
EVERGREEN   67  82  68  82  55 /  80  60  20  20  05
WAYNESBORO  65  83  65  79  54 /  70  30  30  10  10
CAMDEN      66  82  67  81  54 /  60  50  30  20  10
CRESTVIEW   67  80  68  82  58 /  90  80  20  20  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
     EVENING FOR BUTLER-CHOCTAW-CLARKE-CONECUH-COVINGTON-
     CRENSHAW-ESCAMBIA-LOWER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-MONROE-UPPER
     BALDWIN-UPPER MOBILE-WASHINGTON-WILCOX.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR LOWER BALDWIN-
     LOWER MOBILE.

FL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
     EVENING FOR COASTAL ESCAMBIA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-COASTAL SANTA
     ROSA-INLAND ESCAMBIA-INLAND OKALOOSA-INLAND SANTA ROSA.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL
     ESCAMBIA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-COASTAL SANTA ROSA.

MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
     EVENING FOR GEORGE-GREENE-PERRY-STONE-WAYNE.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 182111
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
411 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...FOR TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY...AN UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS BEGINS TO BE ABSORBED BY A LONGWAVE TROF WHICH EVOLVES OVER
THE CENTRAL STATES.  A SERIES OF STRONG SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND BRING HIGH RAIN CHANCES
TO THE AREA DUE TO BOTH AN MCS...MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM...EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE MARINE AREA...AND ASSOCIATED WITH
A SURFACE LOW WHICH DEVELOPS OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
AND MOVES WELL NORTH OF THE AREA.  STORM SCALE INTERACTIONS AND
SUB-SYNOPTIC FEATURES HAVE IMPACTED THE FORECAST SUCH AS THE
LINGERING AREA OF CONVECTION OVER THE MARINE AREA...A REMNANT OF AN
OVERNIGHT MCS...AND ANOTHER MCS WHICH APPEARS TO BE CURRENTLY
DEVELOPING SOUTH OF LOUISIANA.  THE LATTER MCS HAS DEVELOPED ON A
850 MB THETA-E RIDGE IN A REGION OF DIFLUENT 850-300MB
THICKNESS...AND BASED ON THE PLACEMENT OF THESE FEATURES...EXPECT
THE MCS TO TRANSLATE GENERALLY EASTWARD OVERNIGHT AND EVENTUALLY
INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF.

WITH ABUNDANT CONVECTION EXPECTED OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH MUCH
OF THE PERIOD...THIS WILL SIGNIFICANTLY LIMIT SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY OVER THE LAND PORTION OF THE AREA AND DO NOT SEE MUCH OF
A SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL AT LEAST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.  BETTER
INSTABILITY DOES DEVELOP LATER IN THE DAY ON SUNDAY...BUT FORCING IS
WEAKER OR NEGATIVE WHICH WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
SUFFICIENTLY THAT AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF A SEVERE STORM RISK ON
SUNDAY EITHER AS THE 850 MB FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY ALONG WITH
THE SURFACE FLOW AND NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG.  THE EXCEPTIONS TO
THIS ARE POSSIBLY OVER THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING SHOULD THE MCS TRANSLATE FURTHER NORTHWARD
ALLOWING FOR BETTER SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY...AND WILL NEED TO
MONITOR.

EXPECT CURRENTLY NEGLIBLE/ISOLATED PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN TO BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT AS THE LOUISIANA MARINE AREA MCS
STRENGTHENS...AND AS ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DEVELOPS FURTHER INLAND
OVER THE AREA.  HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING...EXCEPT FOR GOOD CHANCE POPS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA...THEN CATEGORICAL POPS FOLLOW FOR ABOUT THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH LIKELY POPS ELSEWHERE AS THE EXPANDING
MCS ADVANCES FURTHER EASTWARD.  QPF AMOUNTS LOOKS TO BE INCREASING
OVERNIGHT MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA...THEN THE
HEAVIER AMOUNTS LOOK CONFINED TO ROUGHLY EAST OF I-65 SUNDAY MORNING
AS SUBSIDENCE BEGINS TO WORK INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA.
WILL HAVE LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS ROUGHLY EAST OF I-65 SUNDAY
MORNING THEN CHANCE POPS FOR THE REMAINING PORTION...WITH CHANCE
POPS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

HAVE KEPT THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN AFFECT ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT...THEN HAVE TRIMMED TO WATCH TO JUST BE IN EFFECT ROUGHLY
ALONG AND EAST OF I-65 SUNDAY MORNING AS QPF AMOUNTS ARE TOO LOW TO
SUPPORT THE WATCH ELSEWHERE. /29

SUNDAY NIGHT...A STRONG SHORTWAVE SWEEPS AROUND THE BASE OF THE
CLOSED LOW OVER THE US/CA BORDER...PUSHING A SURFACE FRONT TOWARDS
THE LOWER MISS RIVER. GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING SIGNIFICANT DRY
SLOTTING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH A DECREASE IN POPS OVER THE FA.
WITH DAYTIME HEATING SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR A FEW STORMS TO BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE...AM EXPECTING THIS TO BLEED INTO EARLY SUNDAY
EVENING. AM EXPECTING THIS ACTIVITY TO DECREASE WITH THE SETTING SUN
AND PRETTY MUCH GONE BY MIDNIGHT.

MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...THE SHORTWAVE SWEEPS NORTHEAST AHEAD OF
THE BORDER UPPER LOW...PUSHING THE FRONT ACROSS THE FA LATE MONDAY
INTO MONDAY EVENING...THEN STALLING OVER THE CENTRAL GULF BY TUESDAY
MORNING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES QUICKLY EAST FROM OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY...EASING THE
POST-FRONTAL WINDS (WHICH AM NOT EXPECTING TO BE THAT STRONG WITH THEDRIVING
DYNAMICS WELL NORTH OF THE FA)...SO A PLEASANT TUESDAY MORNING IS
EXPECTED. ANOTHER SEASONABLE WARM DAY MONDAY IS EXPECTED...WITH TEMPS
DROPPING TO AROUND SEASONAL MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY ON)...TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LOW
OVER THE US/CA PLAINS MENDERS EASTWARD TO OVER THE GREAT
LAKES...THEN STALLS. THE PIECES OF ENERGY SWINGING AROUND THE BAS OF
THIS SYSTEM PUSH THE SURFACE HIGH FROM OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER
VALLEY TO OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. A SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE
NORTHER GULF COAST...WITH ONSHORE FLOW RETURNING TO THE FA BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING. TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT SEE TEMPS DROP TO A BIT
BELOW SEASONAL(70S TUESDAY...50S TUESDAY NIGHT)....BUT BEGIN TO
MODERATE BACK UP WEDNESDAY....WITH TEMPS IN THE 80S RETURNING FOR
WEDNESDAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A LOBE UP ENERGY SWIRLS AROUND
THE BASE OF THE GREAT LAKES UPPER LOW...PUSHING A WEAK BOUNDARY
TOWARDS...THEN PARTIALLY OVER...WITH THE BOUNDARY STALLING OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA BY THURSDAY EVENING. CONTINUE TO REBOUND TO
SEASONABLY WARMS VALUES WITH MOST OF THE FA UNDER ONSHORE FLOW. AS
THE BOUNDARY WORKS ITS WAY NEAR AND OVER THE FA...RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE AREA...WITH THE BEST CHANCE BEING
THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...UPPER ENERGY THAT HAD
ORGANIZED INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BREAKS DOWN AND
GETS DRAWN EAST BY MORE ENERGY SWEEPING AROUND THE GREAT LAKES
SYSTEM. GUIDANCE AGREES ON A SURFACE LOW FORMING AND MOVING EAST
FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. DISAGREEMENT IS WHERE. THE ECMWF IS
ADVERTISING THE LOW FORMING OVER THE OK/KS BORDER AND MOVING EAST-
SOUTHEAST TO OVER THE MS DELTA BY SATURDAY MORNING. THE GFS TAKES A
MORE SOUTHERLY/FASTER PATH...WITH DEVELOPMENT OVER TX AND MOVING EAST
NORTH OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST BEFORE ENDING UP OVER THE FA BY
SATURDAY MORNING. UP TO THIS POINT...BOTH ARE ADVERTISING RAIN
CONTINUING...WITH THE GFS IS ADVERTISING A COOLER SCENARIO...THOUGH
THAN THE ECMWF. HAVE TRIED BEST TO BLEND...WITH EITHER SCENARIO
POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...BOTH ARE ADVERTISING THE SYSTEM`S POST-
SYSTEM FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE FA SATURDAY AND THE FA DRYING OUT. GFS
IS ADVERTISING A STRONGER POST SYSTEM PUSH OF NORTHERLY AIR THAN THE
ECMWF. HAVE WENT IN THE MIDDLE FORE THE FORECAST...WITH THE RESULT
BEING TEMPS AROUND TO A BIT BELOW SEASONAL THE LAST TWO PERIODS OF
THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z ISSUANCE...MVFR/VFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED FOR TODAY WITH MAINLY
IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...THEN VFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOP DURING SUNDAY MORNING. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS BECOME SOUTHWEST ON
MONDAY. WILL HAVE PREVAILING LIGHT RAIN NEAR THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON
AND THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT BEFORE ENDING ON SUNDAY MORNING. /29

&&

.MARINE...A LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY ONSHORE FLOW PREVAILS THROUGH
SUNDAY.  A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY AND MOVES ACROSS THE MARINE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH A
LIGHT TO MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.  AN
ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS BY WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.  WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE HIGHER IN
AND AROUND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. /29

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      66  81  67  82  58 /  80  40  20  10  10
PENSACOLA   68  80  71  80  60 /  90  60  20  20  10
DESTIN      70  78  71  78  62 /  90  90  20  20  10
EVERGREEN   67  82  68  82  55 /  80  60  20  20  05
WAYNESBORO  65  83  65  79  54 /  70  30  30  10  10
CAMDEN      66  82  67  81  54 /  60  50  30  20  10
CRESTVIEW   67  80  68  82  58 /  90  80  20  20  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
     EVENING FOR BUTLER-CHOCTAW-CLARKE-CONECUH-COVINGTON-
     CRENSHAW-ESCAMBIA-LOWER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-MONROE-UPPER
     BALDWIN-UPPER MOBILE-WASHINGTON-WILCOX.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR LOWER BALDWIN-
     LOWER MOBILE.

FL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
     EVENING FOR COASTAL ESCAMBIA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-COASTAL SANTA
     ROSA-INLAND ESCAMBIA-INLAND OKALOOSA-INLAND SANTA ROSA.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL
     ESCAMBIA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-COASTAL SANTA ROSA.

MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
     EVENING FOR GEORGE-GREENE-PERRY-STONE-WAYNE.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMOB 181733 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1233 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...BASED ON SHOWERS OVER THE MARINE AREA FROM A LINGERING AND
WEAKENING MCS...MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM...THIS WILL IMPACT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS LAND PORTIONS OF THE
AREA TODAY. HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS MAINLY FOR THE WESTERN PORTION
OF THE AREA...WHERE SOME REDEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED...WITH CHANCE
POPS ELSEWHERE. QPF AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MUCH LESS THAN EARLIER
FORECAST AND ARE HAVE DROPPED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TODAY...BUT
KEPT IN CONTINUANCE FOR TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AND WILL REEVALUATE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. MADE OTHER ADJUSTMENTS. /29

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z ISSUANCE...MVFR/VFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED FOR TODAY WITH MAINLY
IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...THEN VFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOP DURING SUNDAY MORNING. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS BECOME SOUTHWEST ON
MONDAY. WILL HAVE PREVAILING LIGHT RAIN NEAR THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON
AND THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT BEFORE ENDING ON SUNDAY MORNING. /29

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 534 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST RADAR LOOPS CONTINUE TO SHOW NEXT ROUND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIP MOVING INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA EARLY THIS MORNING
LIKELY AFFECTING MOST AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-10
CORRIDOR THROUGH MIDDAY. THIS REASONING IS A BIT MORE COVERAGE THAN
EARLIER EXPECTED OVER LOWER SECTIONS OF THE CWFA EARLY
TODAY...FOLLOWED BY MORE DEVELOPMENT TO THE WEST AND NORTH THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT AS MAIN UPPER LOW CENTER OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS BEGINS TO SHIFT EASTWARD. THROUGH TONIGHT THE MAIN CONCERN WITH
THIS PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE THREAT OF A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
LATE TODAY AND OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY PRODUCING DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS...VERY HEAVY RAIN WITH POSSIBLE LARGE HAIL. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SEVERE WEATHER BEGINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON GENERALLY WEST OF THE I-65
CORRIDOR STRETCHING SOUTH TO THE COAST MS/AL COAST SPREADING EASTWARD
AFFECTING MOST OTHER AREAS IN THE CWFA THROUGH 12Z SUN. BY EARLY THIS
EVENING MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE INTRODUCES A 35 TO 40 KNOT H8 JET
BECOMING COUPLED WITH THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF AN UPPER JET GENERALLY
BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z SUN MORNING...CONTINUING INTO THE LATER MORNING
HOURS. ALTHOUGH SFC BASED INSTABILITY REMAINS MARGINALLY LOW OVER
MOST INLAND AREAS THROUGH TONIGHT THE STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR STILL
NOTED IN THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE THREAT FOR ROTATING CELLS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT. THE TIMING OF THE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BE
REFINED THROUGHOUT THE DAY. STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES THROUGH
THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT. AS FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TONIGHT DUE TO MOIST ANTECEDENT SOIL
CONDITIONS FOR MOST AREAS. AS FOR TEMPS WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE COOLER
MAV GUIDANCE FOR TODAY DUE TO CLOUDS AND RAIN AND UNDERCUT THESE
VALUES A DEGREE OR TWO MOSTLY FOR CONSISTENCY WITH SURROUNDING WFOS
THEN LEAN TOWARDS THE WARMER MET GUIDANCE OVERNIGHT ALSO DUE TO
CLOUDS AND RAIN AND BETTER WARM AIR ADVECTION THAT IS EXPECTED AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. 32/EE

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECAST CHALLENGES CONTINUE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND...
AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO AMBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS.  THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE END OF THE PERIODIC EPISODES OF
HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS IN SIGHT.

A (MOST LIKELY LINEAR) MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE
ONGOING ACROSS OUR AREA AS WE START THE DAY SUNDAY.  WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAINING MUCH MORE THAN 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL MEANS AND AMPLE CONVECTIVE
VENTILATION PROVIDED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK...HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA.  A FEW STRONGER STORMS MAY ALSO BE SEEN AS SURFACE TO 6 KM
BULK SHEAR VALUES HOVER AROUND 50 KTS AND THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
OF THE UPPER JET APPROACHES OUR AREA.  I THINK THE MAJOR LIMITING
FACTOR FOR SEVERE STORMS SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE AVAILABLE
INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE TIME OF DAY.

BOUNDARY LAYER OVER OUR AREA DRIES OUT A BIT IN WAKE OF THE MORNING
MORNING MCS...SO WE MAY SEE A BREAK IN THE ACTION AFTER IT EXITS OUR
AREA AS 850 MB WINDS VEER TO A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION.  THIS
SHOULD ALLOW THE ATMOSPHERE TO DESTABILIZE...WITH SURFACE-BASED CAPE
VALUES POSSIBLY APPROACHING 2000 JOULES/KG POSSIBLE BY MID-
AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF PERTURBATIONS SHOULD THEN EMANATE FROM THE
WEAKENING/FILLING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON...PUSHING
A COLD FRONT INTO THE ARKLAMISS.  MID-TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES
SHOULD STEEPEN AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH...WITH DIFLUENCE
INCREASING (ESPECIALLY OVER THE MORE INLAND AREAS) AS THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF THE NEXT JET STREAK APPROACHES OUR AREA.  ADDITIONAL
STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP TO OUR WEST AS A RESULT...AND WILL LIKELY
APPROACH SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE DRIER CONDITIONS IN THE MID-LEVELS...
WHICH SHOULD SOMEWHAT LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE.  STILL...THOUGH...
GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC INGREDIENTS...
WE CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN ADVANCE OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT.  IT LOOKS LIKE OUR NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES WILL
HAVE THE GREATEST ODDS OF SEEING SEVERE STORMS GIVEN THE BEST
COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR.

DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MOVE INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THE FRONT...ALLOWING A COUPLE OF DRY DAYS TO BE SEEN.  WITH AN
INCREASINGLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...THE HIGH SHOULD SLIDE EAST.  THE
RESULT COULD BE THE RETURN OF A SMATTERING OF CONVECTION AS
SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE GULF MOISTURE OVER THE REGION FOR MID-
AND LATE WEEK. /02/

MARINE...
A LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND WILL SHIFT MOSTLY SOUTH AND
INCREASE LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST. AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
LIKELY BEGINNING LATER THIS MORNING...BECOMING BETTER DEVELOPED THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT...CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY. WINDS AND SEAS
WILL BE HIGHER IN AND AROUND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH
OF THE WEEKEND...WITH A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
OVERNIGHT CONTINUING INTO SUN. A LIGHT TO MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW
WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT BY THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK
BECOMING NORTHEAST THEN EAST LATER IN THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND NORTHEAST GULF. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      77  67  81  67  80 /  70  80  60  30  20
PENSACOLA   79  71  80  69  79 /  50  80  70  30  30
DESTIN      81  72  76  72  78 /  50  70  80  30  30
EVERGREEN   79  67  82  66  82 /  40  80  70  30  30
WAYNESBORO  77  65  83  63  79 /  70  80  50  40  20
CAMDEN      77  67  83  66  80 /  40  90  70  30  20
CRESTVIEW   82  69  80  67  82 /  40  80  80  30  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
     EVENING FOR BUTLER-CHOCTAW-CLARKE-CONECUH-COVINGTON-
     CRENSHAW-ESCAMBIA-LOWER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-MONROE-UPPER
     BALDWIN-UPPER MOBILE-WASHINGTON-WILCOX.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR LOWER BALDWIN-
     LOWER MOBILE.

FL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
     EVENING FOR COASTAL ESCAMBIA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-COASTAL SANTA
     ROSA-INLAND ESCAMBIA-INLAND OKALOOSA-INLAND SANTA ROSA.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL
     ESCAMBIA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-COASTAL SANTA ROSA.

MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
     EVENING FOR GEORGE-GREENE-PERRY-STONE-WAYNE.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMOB 181733 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1233 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...BASED ON SHOWERS OVER THE MARINE AREA FROM A LINGERING AND
WEAKENING MCS...MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM...THIS WILL IMPACT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS LAND PORTIONS OF THE
AREA TODAY. HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS MAINLY FOR THE WESTERN PORTION
OF THE AREA...WHERE SOME REDEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED...WITH CHANCE
POPS ELSEWHERE. QPF AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MUCH LESS THAN EARLIER
FORECAST AND ARE HAVE DROPPED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TODAY...BUT
KEPT IN CONTINUANCE FOR TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AND WILL REEVALUATE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. MADE OTHER ADJUSTMENTS. /29

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z ISSUANCE...MVFR/VFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED FOR TODAY WITH MAINLY
IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...THEN VFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOP DURING SUNDAY MORNING. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS BECOME SOUTHWEST ON
MONDAY. WILL HAVE PREVAILING LIGHT RAIN NEAR THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON
AND THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT BEFORE ENDING ON SUNDAY MORNING. /29

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 534 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST RADAR LOOPS CONTINUE TO SHOW NEXT ROUND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIP MOVING INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA EARLY THIS MORNING
LIKELY AFFECTING MOST AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-10
CORRIDOR THROUGH MIDDAY. THIS REASONING IS A BIT MORE COVERAGE THAN
EARLIER EXPECTED OVER LOWER SECTIONS OF THE CWFA EARLY
TODAY...FOLLOWED BY MORE DEVELOPMENT TO THE WEST AND NORTH THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT AS MAIN UPPER LOW CENTER OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS BEGINS TO SHIFT EASTWARD. THROUGH TONIGHT THE MAIN CONCERN WITH
THIS PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE THREAT OF A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
LATE TODAY AND OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY PRODUCING DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS...VERY HEAVY RAIN WITH POSSIBLE LARGE HAIL. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SEVERE WEATHER BEGINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON GENERALLY WEST OF THE I-65
CORRIDOR STRETCHING SOUTH TO THE COAST MS/AL COAST SPREADING EASTWARD
AFFECTING MOST OTHER AREAS IN THE CWFA THROUGH 12Z SUN. BY EARLY THIS
EVENING MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE INTRODUCES A 35 TO 40 KNOT H8 JET
BECOMING COUPLED WITH THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF AN UPPER JET GENERALLY
BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z SUN MORNING...CONTINUING INTO THE LATER MORNING
HOURS. ALTHOUGH SFC BASED INSTABILITY REMAINS MARGINALLY LOW OVER
MOST INLAND AREAS THROUGH TONIGHT THE STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR STILL
NOTED IN THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE THREAT FOR ROTATING CELLS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT. THE TIMING OF THE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BE
REFINED THROUGHOUT THE DAY. STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES THROUGH
THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT. AS FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TONIGHT DUE TO MOIST ANTECEDENT SOIL
CONDITIONS FOR MOST AREAS. AS FOR TEMPS WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE COOLER
MAV GUIDANCE FOR TODAY DUE TO CLOUDS AND RAIN AND UNDERCUT THESE
VALUES A DEGREE OR TWO MOSTLY FOR CONSISTENCY WITH SURROUNDING WFOS
THEN LEAN TOWARDS THE WARMER MET GUIDANCE OVERNIGHT ALSO DUE TO
CLOUDS AND RAIN AND BETTER WARM AIR ADVECTION THAT IS EXPECTED AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. 32/EE

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECAST CHALLENGES CONTINUE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND...
AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO AMBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS.  THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE END OF THE PERIODIC EPISODES OF
HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS IN SIGHT.

A (MOST LIKELY LINEAR) MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE
ONGOING ACROSS OUR AREA AS WE START THE DAY SUNDAY.  WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAINING MUCH MORE THAN 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL MEANS AND AMPLE CONVECTIVE
VENTILATION PROVIDED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK...HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA.  A FEW STRONGER STORMS MAY ALSO BE SEEN AS SURFACE TO 6 KM
BULK SHEAR VALUES HOVER AROUND 50 KTS AND THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
OF THE UPPER JET APPROACHES OUR AREA.  I THINK THE MAJOR LIMITING
FACTOR FOR SEVERE STORMS SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE AVAILABLE
INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE TIME OF DAY.

BOUNDARY LAYER OVER OUR AREA DRIES OUT A BIT IN WAKE OF THE MORNING
MORNING MCS...SO WE MAY SEE A BREAK IN THE ACTION AFTER IT EXITS OUR
AREA AS 850 MB WINDS VEER TO A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION.  THIS
SHOULD ALLOW THE ATMOSPHERE TO DESTABILIZE...WITH SURFACE-BASED CAPE
VALUES POSSIBLY APPROACHING 2000 JOULES/KG POSSIBLE BY MID-
AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF PERTURBATIONS SHOULD THEN EMANATE FROM THE
WEAKENING/FILLING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON...PUSHING
A COLD FRONT INTO THE ARKLAMISS.  MID-TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES
SHOULD STEEPEN AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH...WITH DIFLUENCE
INCREASING (ESPECIALLY OVER THE MORE INLAND AREAS) AS THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF THE NEXT JET STREAK APPROACHES OUR AREA.  ADDITIONAL
STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP TO OUR WEST AS A RESULT...AND WILL LIKELY
APPROACH SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE DRIER CONDITIONS IN THE MID-LEVELS...
WHICH SHOULD SOMEWHAT LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE.  STILL...THOUGH...
GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC INGREDIENTS...
WE CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN ADVANCE OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT.  IT LOOKS LIKE OUR NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES WILL
HAVE THE GREATEST ODDS OF SEEING SEVERE STORMS GIVEN THE BEST
COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR.

DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MOVE INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THE FRONT...ALLOWING A COUPLE OF DRY DAYS TO BE SEEN.  WITH AN
INCREASINGLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...THE HIGH SHOULD SLIDE EAST.  THE
RESULT COULD BE THE RETURN OF A SMATTERING OF CONVECTION AS
SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE GULF MOISTURE OVER THE REGION FOR MID-
AND LATE WEEK. /02/

MARINE...
A LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND WILL SHIFT MOSTLY SOUTH AND
INCREASE LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST. AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
LIKELY BEGINNING LATER THIS MORNING...BECOMING BETTER DEVELOPED THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT...CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY. WINDS AND SEAS
WILL BE HIGHER IN AND AROUND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH
OF THE WEEKEND...WITH A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
OVERNIGHT CONTINUING INTO SUN. A LIGHT TO MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW
WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT BY THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK
BECOMING NORTHEAST THEN EAST LATER IN THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND NORTHEAST GULF. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      77  67  81  67  80 /  70  80  60  30  20
PENSACOLA   79  71  80  69  79 /  50  80  70  30  30
DESTIN      81  72  76  72  78 /  50  70  80  30  30
EVERGREEN   79  67  82  66  82 /  40  80  70  30  30
WAYNESBORO  77  65  83  63  79 /  70  80  50  40  20
CAMDEN      77  67  83  66  80 /  40  90  70  30  20
CRESTVIEW   82  69  80  67  82 /  40  80  80  30  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
     EVENING FOR BUTLER-CHOCTAW-CLARKE-CONECUH-COVINGTON-
     CRENSHAW-ESCAMBIA-LOWER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-MONROE-UPPER
     BALDWIN-UPPER MOBILE-WASHINGTON-WILCOX.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR LOWER BALDWIN-
     LOWER MOBILE.

FL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
     EVENING FOR COASTAL ESCAMBIA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-COASTAL SANTA
     ROSA-INLAND ESCAMBIA-INLAND OKALOOSA-INLAND SANTA ROSA.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL
     ESCAMBIA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-COASTAL SANTA ROSA.

MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
     EVENING FOR GEORGE-GREENE-PERRY-STONE-WAYNE.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 181733 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1233 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...BASED ON SHOWERS OVER THE MARINE AREA FROM A LINGERING AND
WEAKENING MCS...MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM...THIS WILL IMPACT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS LAND PORTIONS OF THE
AREA TODAY. HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS MAINLY FOR THE WESTERN PORTION
OF THE AREA...WHERE SOME REDEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED...WITH CHANCE
POPS ELSEWHERE. QPF AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MUCH LESS THAN EARLIER
FORECAST AND ARE HAVE DROPPED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TODAY...BUT
KEPT IN CONTINUANCE FOR TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AND WILL REEVALUATE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. MADE OTHER ADJUSTMENTS. /29

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z ISSUANCE...MVFR/VFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED FOR TODAY WITH MAINLY
IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...THEN VFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOP DURING SUNDAY MORNING. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS BECOME SOUTHWEST ON
MONDAY. WILL HAVE PREVAILING LIGHT RAIN NEAR THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON
AND THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT BEFORE ENDING ON SUNDAY MORNING. /29

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 534 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST RADAR LOOPS CONTINUE TO SHOW NEXT ROUND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIP MOVING INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA EARLY THIS MORNING
LIKELY AFFECTING MOST AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-10
CORRIDOR THROUGH MIDDAY. THIS REASONING IS A BIT MORE COVERAGE THAN
EARLIER EXPECTED OVER LOWER SECTIONS OF THE CWFA EARLY
TODAY...FOLLOWED BY MORE DEVELOPMENT TO THE WEST AND NORTH THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT AS MAIN UPPER LOW CENTER OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS BEGINS TO SHIFT EASTWARD. THROUGH TONIGHT THE MAIN CONCERN WITH
THIS PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE THREAT OF A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
LATE TODAY AND OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY PRODUCING DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS...VERY HEAVY RAIN WITH POSSIBLE LARGE HAIL. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SEVERE WEATHER BEGINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON GENERALLY WEST OF THE I-65
CORRIDOR STRETCHING SOUTH TO THE COAST MS/AL COAST SPREADING EASTWARD
AFFECTING MOST OTHER AREAS IN THE CWFA THROUGH 12Z SUN. BY EARLY THIS
EVENING MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE INTRODUCES A 35 TO 40 KNOT H8 JET
BECOMING COUPLED WITH THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF AN UPPER JET GENERALLY
BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z SUN MORNING...CONTINUING INTO THE LATER MORNING
HOURS. ALTHOUGH SFC BASED INSTABILITY REMAINS MARGINALLY LOW OVER
MOST INLAND AREAS THROUGH TONIGHT THE STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR STILL
NOTED IN THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE THREAT FOR ROTATING CELLS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT. THE TIMING OF THE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BE
REFINED THROUGHOUT THE DAY. STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES THROUGH
THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT. AS FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TONIGHT DUE TO MOIST ANTECEDENT SOIL
CONDITIONS FOR MOST AREAS. AS FOR TEMPS WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE COOLER
MAV GUIDANCE FOR TODAY DUE TO CLOUDS AND RAIN AND UNDERCUT THESE
VALUES A DEGREE OR TWO MOSTLY FOR CONSISTENCY WITH SURROUNDING WFOS
THEN LEAN TOWARDS THE WARMER MET GUIDANCE OVERNIGHT ALSO DUE TO
CLOUDS AND RAIN AND BETTER WARM AIR ADVECTION THAT IS EXPECTED AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. 32/EE

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECAST CHALLENGES CONTINUE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND...
AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO AMBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS.  THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE END OF THE PERIODIC EPISODES OF
HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS IN SIGHT.

A (MOST LIKELY LINEAR) MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE
ONGOING ACROSS OUR AREA AS WE START THE DAY SUNDAY.  WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAINING MUCH MORE THAN 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL MEANS AND AMPLE CONVECTIVE
VENTILATION PROVIDED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK...HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA.  A FEW STRONGER STORMS MAY ALSO BE SEEN AS SURFACE TO 6 KM
BULK SHEAR VALUES HOVER AROUND 50 KTS AND THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
OF THE UPPER JET APPROACHES OUR AREA.  I THINK THE MAJOR LIMITING
FACTOR FOR SEVERE STORMS SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE AVAILABLE
INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE TIME OF DAY.

BOUNDARY LAYER OVER OUR AREA DRIES OUT A BIT IN WAKE OF THE MORNING
MORNING MCS...SO WE MAY SEE A BREAK IN THE ACTION AFTER IT EXITS OUR
AREA AS 850 MB WINDS VEER TO A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION.  THIS
SHOULD ALLOW THE ATMOSPHERE TO DESTABILIZE...WITH SURFACE-BASED CAPE
VALUES POSSIBLY APPROACHING 2000 JOULES/KG POSSIBLE BY MID-
AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF PERTURBATIONS SHOULD THEN EMANATE FROM THE
WEAKENING/FILLING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON...PUSHING
A COLD FRONT INTO THE ARKLAMISS.  MID-TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES
SHOULD STEEPEN AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH...WITH DIFLUENCE
INCREASING (ESPECIALLY OVER THE MORE INLAND AREAS) AS THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF THE NEXT JET STREAK APPROACHES OUR AREA.  ADDITIONAL
STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP TO OUR WEST AS A RESULT...AND WILL LIKELY
APPROACH SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE DRIER CONDITIONS IN THE MID-LEVELS...
WHICH SHOULD SOMEWHAT LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE.  STILL...THOUGH...
GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC INGREDIENTS...
WE CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN ADVANCE OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT.  IT LOOKS LIKE OUR NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES WILL
HAVE THE GREATEST ODDS OF SEEING SEVERE STORMS GIVEN THE BEST
COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR.

DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MOVE INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THE FRONT...ALLOWING A COUPLE OF DRY DAYS TO BE SEEN.  WITH AN
INCREASINGLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...THE HIGH SHOULD SLIDE EAST.  THE
RESULT COULD BE THE RETURN OF A SMATTERING OF CONVECTION AS
SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE GULF MOISTURE OVER THE REGION FOR MID-
AND LATE WEEK. /02/

MARINE...
A LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND WILL SHIFT MOSTLY SOUTH AND
INCREASE LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST. AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
LIKELY BEGINNING LATER THIS MORNING...BECOMING BETTER DEVELOPED THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT...CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY. WINDS AND SEAS
WILL BE HIGHER IN AND AROUND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH
OF THE WEEKEND...WITH A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
OVERNIGHT CONTINUING INTO SUN. A LIGHT TO MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW
WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT BY THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK
BECOMING NORTHEAST THEN EAST LATER IN THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND NORTHEAST GULF. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      77  67  81  67  80 /  70  80  60  30  20
PENSACOLA   79  71  80  69  79 /  50  80  70  30  30
DESTIN      81  72  76  72  78 /  50  70  80  30  30
EVERGREEN   79  67  82  66  82 /  40  80  70  30  30
WAYNESBORO  77  65  83  63  79 /  70  80  50  40  20
CAMDEN      77  67  83  66  80 /  40  90  70  30  20
CRESTVIEW   82  69  80  67  82 /  40  80  80  30  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
     EVENING FOR BUTLER-CHOCTAW-CLARKE-CONECUH-COVINGTON-
     CRENSHAW-ESCAMBIA-LOWER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-MONROE-UPPER
     BALDWIN-UPPER MOBILE-WASHINGTON-WILCOX.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR LOWER BALDWIN-
     LOWER MOBILE.

FL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
     EVENING FOR COASTAL ESCAMBIA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-COASTAL SANTA
     ROSA-INLAND ESCAMBIA-INLAND OKALOOSA-INLAND SANTA ROSA.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL
     ESCAMBIA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-COASTAL SANTA ROSA.

MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
     EVENING FOR GEORGE-GREENE-PERRY-STONE-WAYNE.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 181733 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1233 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...BASED ON SHOWERS OVER THE MARINE AREA FROM A LINGERING AND
WEAKENING MCS...MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM...THIS WILL IMPACT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS LAND PORTIONS OF THE
AREA TODAY. HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS MAINLY FOR THE WESTERN PORTION
OF THE AREA...WHERE SOME REDEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED...WITH CHANCE
POPS ELSEWHERE. QPF AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MUCH LESS THAN EARLIER
FORECAST AND ARE HAVE DROPPED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TODAY...BUT
KEPT IN CONTINUANCE FOR TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AND WILL REEVALUATE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. MADE OTHER ADJUSTMENTS. /29

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z ISSUANCE...MVFR/VFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED FOR TODAY WITH MAINLY
IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...THEN VFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOP DURING SUNDAY MORNING. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS BECOME SOUTHWEST ON
MONDAY. WILL HAVE PREVAILING LIGHT RAIN NEAR THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON
AND THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT BEFORE ENDING ON SUNDAY MORNING. /29

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 534 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST RADAR LOOPS CONTINUE TO SHOW NEXT ROUND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIP MOVING INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA EARLY THIS MORNING
LIKELY AFFECTING MOST AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-10
CORRIDOR THROUGH MIDDAY. THIS REASONING IS A BIT MORE COVERAGE THAN
EARLIER EXPECTED OVER LOWER SECTIONS OF THE CWFA EARLY
TODAY...FOLLOWED BY MORE DEVELOPMENT TO THE WEST AND NORTH THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT AS MAIN UPPER LOW CENTER OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS BEGINS TO SHIFT EASTWARD. THROUGH TONIGHT THE MAIN CONCERN WITH
THIS PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE THREAT OF A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
LATE TODAY AND OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY PRODUCING DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS...VERY HEAVY RAIN WITH POSSIBLE LARGE HAIL. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SEVERE WEATHER BEGINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON GENERALLY WEST OF THE I-65
CORRIDOR STRETCHING SOUTH TO THE COAST MS/AL COAST SPREADING EASTWARD
AFFECTING MOST OTHER AREAS IN THE CWFA THROUGH 12Z SUN. BY EARLY THIS
EVENING MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE INTRODUCES A 35 TO 40 KNOT H8 JET
BECOMING COUPLED WITH THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF AN UPPER JET GENERALLY
BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z SUN MORNING...CONTINUING INTO THE LATER MORNING
HOURS. ALTHOUGH SFC BASED INSTABILITY REMAINS MARGINALLY LOW OVER
MOST INLAND AREAS THROUGH TONIGHT THE STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR STILL
NOTED IN THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE THREAT FOR ROTATING CELLS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT. THE TIMING OF THE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BE
REFINED THROUGHOUT THE DAY. STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES THROUGH
THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT. AS FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TONIGHT DUE TO MOIST ANTECEDENT SOIL
CONDITIONS FOR MOST AREAS. AS FOR TEMPS WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE COOLER
MAV GUIDANCE FOR TODAY DUE TO CLOUDS AND RAIN AND UNDERCUT THESE
VALUES A DEGREE OR TWO MOSTLY FOR CONSISTENCY WITH SURROUNDING WFOS
THEN LEAN TOWARDS THE WARMER MET GUIDANCE OVERNIGHT ALSO DUE TO
CLOUDS AND RAIN AND BETTER WARM AIR ADVECTION THAT IS EXPECTED AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. 32/EE

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECAST CHALLENGES CONTINUE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND...
AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO AMBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS.  THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE END OF THE PERIODIC EPISODES OF
HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS IN SIGHT.

A (MOST LIKELY LINEAR) MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE
ONGOING ACROSS OUR AREA AS WE START THE DAY SUNDAY.  WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAINING MUCH MORE THAN 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL MEANS AND AMPLE CONVECTIVE
VENTILATION PROVIDED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK...HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA.  A FEW STRONGER STORMS MAY ALSO BE SEEN AS SURFACE TO 6 KM
BULK SHEAR VALUES HOVER AROUND 50 KTS AND THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
OF THE UPPER JET APPROACHES OUR AREA.  I THINK THE MAJOR LIMITING
FACTOR FOR SEVERE STORMS SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE AVAILABLE
INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE TIME OF DAY.

BOUNDARY LAYER OVER OUR AREA DRIES OUT A BIT IN WAKE OF THE MORNING
MORNING MCS...SO WE MAY SEE A BREAK IN THE ACTION AFTER IT EXITS OUR
AREA AS 850 MB WINDS VEER TO A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION.  THIS
SHOULD ALLOW THE ATMOSPHERE TO DESTABILIZE...WITH SURFACE-BASED CAPE
VALUES POSSIBLY APPROACHING 2000 JOULES/KG POSSIBLE BY MID-
AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF PERTURBATIONS SHOULD THEN EMANATE FROM THE
WEAKENING/FILLING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON...PUSHING
A COLD FRONT INTO THE ARKLAMISS.  MID-TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES
SHOULD STEEPEN AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH...WITH DIFLUENCE
INCREASING (ESPECIALLY OVER THE MORE INLAND AREAS) AS THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF THE NEXT JET STREAK APPROACHES OUR AREA.  ADDITIONAL
STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP TO OUR WEST AS A RESULT...AND WILL LIKELY
APPROACH SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE DRIER CONDITIONS IN THE MID-LEVELS...
WHICH SHOULD SOMEWHAT LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE.  STILL...THOUGH...
GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC INGREDIENTS...
WE CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN ADVANCE OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT.  IT LOOKS LIKE OUR NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES WILL
HAVE THE GREATEST ODDS OF SEEING SEVERE STORMS GIVEN THE BEST
COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR.

DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MOVE INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THE FRONT...ALLOWING A COUPLE OF DRY DAYS TO BE SEEN.  WITH AN
INCREASINGLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...THE HIGH SHOULD SLIDE EAST.  THE
RESULT COULD BE THE RETURN OF A SMATTERING OF CONVECTION AS
SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE GULF MOISTURE OVER THE REGION FOR MID-
AND LATE WEEK. /02/

MARINE...
A LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND WILL SHIFT MOSTLY SOUTH AND
INCREASE LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST. AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
LIKELY BEGINNING LATER THIS MORNING...BECOMING BETTER DEVELOPED THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT...CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY. WINDS AND SEAS
WILL BE HIGHER IN AND AROUND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH
OF THE WEEKEND...WITH A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
OVERNIGHT CONTINUING INTO SUN. A LIGHT TO MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW
WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT BY THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK
BECOMING NORTHEAST THEN EAST LATER IN THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND NORTHEAST GULF. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      77  67  81  67  80 /  70  80  60  30  20
PENSACOLA   79  71  80  69  79 /  50  80  70  30  30
DESTIN      81  72  76  72  78 /  50  70  80  30  30
EVERGREEN   79  67  82  66  82 /  40  80  70  30  30
WAYNESBORO  77  65  83  63  79 /  70  80  50  40  20
CAMDEN      77  67  83  66  80 /  40  90  70  30  20
CRESTVIEW   82  69  80  67  82 /  40  80  80  30  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
     EVENING FOR BUTLER-CHOCTAW-CLARKE-CONECUH-COVINGTON-
     CRENSHAW-ESCAMBIA-LOWER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-MONROE-UPPER
     BALDWIN-UPPER MOBILE-WASHINGTON-WILCOX.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR LOWER BALDWIN-
     LOWER MOBILE.

FL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
     EVENING FOR COASTAL ESCAMBIA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-COASTAL SANTA
     ROSA-INLAND ESCAMBIA-INLAND OKALOOSA-INLAND SANTA ROSA.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL
     ESCAMBIA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-COASTAL SANTA ROSA.

MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
     EVENING FOR GEORGE-GREENE-PERRY-STONE-WAYNE.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMOB 181034
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
534 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST RADAR LOOPS CONTINUE TO SHOW NEXT ROUND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIP MOVING INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA EARLY THIS MORNING
LIKELY AFFECTING MOST AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-10
CORRIDOR THROUGH MIDDAY. THIS REASONING IS A BIT MORE COVERAGE THAN
EARLIER EXPECTED OVER LOWER SECTIONS OF THE CWFA EARLY
TODAY...FOLLOWED BY MORE DEVELOPMENT TO THE WEST AND NORTH THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT AS MAIN UPPER LOW CENTER OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS BEGINS TO SHIFT EASTWARD. THROUGH TONIGHT THE MAIN CONCERN WITH
THIS PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE THREAT OF A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
LATE TODAY AND OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY PRODUCING DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS...VERY HEAVY RAIN WITH POSSIBLE LARGE HAIL. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SEVERE WEATHER BEGINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON GENERALLY WEST OF THE I-65
CORRIDOR STRETCHING SOUTH TO THE COAST MS/AL COAST SPREADING EASTWARD
AFFECTING MOST OTHER AREAS IN THE CWFA THROUGH 12Z SUN. BY EARLY THIS
EVENING MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE INTRODUCES A 35 TO 40 KNOT H8 JET
BECOMING COUPLED WITH THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF AN UPPER JET GENERALLY
BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z SUN MORNING...CONTINUING INTO THE LATER MORNING
HOURS. ALTHOUGH SFC BASED INSTABILITY REMAINS MARGINALLY LOW OVER
MOST INLAND AREAS THROUGH TONIGHT THE STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR STILL
NOTED IN THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE THREAT FOR ROTATING CELLS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT. THE TIMING OF THE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BE
REFINED THROUGHOUT THE DAY. STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES THROUGH
THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT. AS FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TONIGHT DUE TO MOIST ANTECEDENT SOIL
CONDITIONS FOR MOST AREAS. AS FOR TEMPS WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE COOLER
MAV GUIDANCE FOR TODAY DUE TO CLOUDS AND RAIN AND UNDERCUT THESE
VALUES A DEGREE OR TWO MOSTLY FOR CONSISTENCY WITH SURROUNDING WFOS
THEN LEAN TOWARDS THE WARMER MET GUIDANCE OVERNIGHT ALSO DUE TO
CLOUDS AND RAIN AND BETTER WARM AIR ADVECTION THAT IS EXPECTED AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. 32/EE

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECAST CHALLENGES CONTINUE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND...
AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO AMBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS.  THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE END OF THE PERIODIC EPISODES OF
HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS IN SIGHT.

A (MOST LIKELY LINEAR) MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE
ONGOING ACROSS OUR AREA AS WE START THE DAY SUNDAY.  WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAINING MUCH MORE THAN 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL MEANS AND AMPLE CONVECTIVE
VENTILATION PROVIDED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK...HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA.  A FEW STRONGER STORMS MAY ALSO BE SEEN AS SURFACE TO 6 KM
BULK SHEAR VALUES HOVER AROUND 50 KTS AND THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
OF THE UPPER JET APPROACHES OUR AREA.  I THINK THE MAJOR LIMITING
FACTOR FOR SEVERE STORMS SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE AVAILABLE
INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE TIME OF DAY.

BOUNDARY LAYER OVER OUR AREA DRIES OUT A BIT IN WAKE OF THE MORNING
MORNING MCS...SO WE MAY SEE A BREAK IN THE ACTION AFTER IT EXITS OUR
AREA AS 850 MB WINDS VEER TO A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION.  THIS
SHOULD ALLOW THE ATMOSPHERE TO DESTABILIZE...WITH SURFACE-BASED CAPE
VALUES POSSIBLY APPROACHING 2000 JOULES/KG POSSIBLE BY MID-
AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF PERTURBATIONS SHOULD THEN EMANATE FROM THE
WEAKENING/FILLING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON...PUSHING
A COLD FRONT INTO THE ARKLAMISS.  MID-TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES
SHOULD STEEPEN AS THE DISTRUBANCE MOVES THROUGH...WITH DIFLUENCE
INCREASING (ESPECIALLY OVER THE MORE INLAND AREAS) AS THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF THE NEXT JET STREAK APPROACHES OUR AREA.  ADDITIONAL
STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP TO OUR WEST AS A RESULT...AND WILL LIKELY
APPROACH SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE DRIER CONDITIONS IN THE MID-LEVELS...
WHICH SHOULD SOMEWHAT LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE.  STILL...THOUGH...
GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC INGREDIENTS...
WE CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN ADVANCE OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT.  IT LOOKS LIKE OUR NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES WILL
HAVE THE GREATEST ODDS OF SEEING SEVERE STORMS GIVEN THE BEST
COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR.

DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MOVE INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THE FRONT...ALLOWING A COUPLE OF DRY DAYS TO BE SEEN.  WITH AN
INCREASINGLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...THE HIGH SHOULD SLIDE EAST.  THE
RESULT COULD BE THE RETURN OF A SMATTERING OF CONVECTION AS
SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE GULF MOISTURE OVER THE REGION FOR MID-
AND LATE WEEK. /02/

&&

.MARINE...
A LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND WILL SHIFT MOSTLY SOUTH AND
INCREASE LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST. AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
LIKELY BEGINNING LATER THIS MORNING...BECOMING BETTER DEVELOPED THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT...CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY. WINDS AND SEAS
WILL BE HIGHER IN AND AROUND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH
OF THE WEEKEND...WITH A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
OVERNIGHT CONTINUING INTO SUN. A LIGHT TO MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW
WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT BY THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK
BECOMING NORTHEAST THEN EAST LATER IN THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND NORTHEAST GULF. 32/EE


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      77  67  81  67  80 /  80  80  60  30  20
PENSACOLA   80  71  80  69  79 /  70  80  70  30  30
DESTIN      81  72  76  72  78 /  60  70  80  30  30
EVERGREEN   79  67  82  66  82 /  70  80  70  30  30
WAYNESBORO  77  65  83  63  79 /  90  80  50  40  20
CAMDEN      78  67  83  66  80 /  80  90  70  30  20
CRESTVIEW   84  69  80  67  82 /  60  80  80  30  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR BUTLER-CHOCTAW-
     CLARKE-CONECUH-COVINGTON-CRENSHAW-ESCAMBIA-LOWER BALDWIN-
     LOWER MOBILE-MONROE-UPPER BALDWIN-UPPER MOBILE-WASHINGTON-
     WILCOX.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR LOWER BALDWIN-
     LOWER MOBILE.

FL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR COASTAL ESCAMBIA-
     COASTAL OKALOOSA-COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND ESCAMBIA-INLAND
     OKALOOSA-INLAND SANTA ROSA.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL
     ESCAMBIA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-COASTAL SANTA ROSA.

MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR GEORGE-GREENE-PERRY-
     STONE-WAYNE.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM FORECASTER... EE
LONG TERM FORECASTER... BUTTS




000
FXUS64 KMOB 181034
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
534 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST RADAR LOOPS CONTINUE TO SHOW NEXT ROUND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIP MOVING INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA EARLY THIS MORNING
LIKELY AFFECTING MOST AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-10
CORRIDOR THROUGH MIDDAY. THIS REASONING IS A BIT MORE COVERAGE THAN
EARLIER EXPECTED OVER LOWER SECTIONS OF THE CWFA EARLY
TODAY...FOLLOWED BY MORE DEVELOPMENT TO THE WEST AND NORTH THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT AS MAIN UPPER LOW CENTER OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS BEGINS TO SHIFT EASTWARD. THROUGH TONIGHT THE MAIN CONCERN WITH
THIS PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE THREAT OF A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
LATE TODAY AND OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY PRODUCING DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS...VERY HEAVY RAIN WITH POSSIBLE LARGE HAIL. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SEVERE WEATHER BEGINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON GENERALLY WEST OF THE I-65
CORRIDOR STRETCHING SOUTH TO THE COAST MS/AL COAST SPREADING EASTWARD
AFFECTING MOST OTHER AREAS IN THE CWFA THROUGH 12Z SUN. BY EARLY THIS
EVENING MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE INTRODUCES A 35 TO 40 KNOT H8 JET
BECOMING COUPLED WITH THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF AN UPPER JET GENERALLY
BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z SUN MORNING...CONTINUING INTO THE LATER MORNING
HOURS. ALTHOUGH SFC BASED INSTABILITY REMAINS MARGINALLY LOW OVER
MOST INLAND AREAS THROUGH TONIGHT THE STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR STILL
NOTED IN THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE THREAT FOR ROTATING CELLS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT. THE TIMING OF THE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BE
REFINED THROUGHOUT THE DAY. STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES THROUGH
THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT. AS FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TONIGHT DUE TO MOIST ANTECEDENT SOIL
CONDITIONS FOR MOST AREAS. AS FOR TEMPS WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE COOLER
MAV GUIDANCE FOR TODAY DUE TO CLOUDS AND RAIN AND UNDERCUT THESE
VALUES A DEGREE OR TWO MOSTLY FOR CONSISTENCY WITH SURROUNDING WFOS
THEN LEAN TOWARDS THE WARMER MET GUIDANCE OVERNIGHT ALSO DUE TO
CLOUDS AND RAIN AND BETTER WARM AIR ADVECTION THAT IS EXPECTED AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. 32/EE

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECAST CHALLENGES CONTINUE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND...
AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO AMBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS.  THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE END OF THE PERIODIC EPISODES OF
HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS IN SIGHT.

A (MOST LIKELY LINEAR) MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE
ONGOING ACROSS OUR AREA AS WE START THE DAY SUNDAY.  WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAINING MUCH MORE THAN 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL MEANS AND AMPLE CONVECTIVE
VENTILATION PROVIDED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK...HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA.  A FEW STRONGER STORMS MAY ALSO BE SEEN AS SURFACE TO 6 KM
BULK SHEAR VALUES HOVER AROUND 50 KTS AND THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
OF THE UPPER JET APPROACHES OUR AREA.  I THINK THE MAJOR LIMITING
FACTOR FOR SEVERE STORMS SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE AVAILABLE
INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE TIME OF DAY.

BOUNDARY LAYER OVER OUR AREA DRIES OUT A BIT IN WAKE OF THE MORNING
MORNING MCS...SO WE MAY SEE A BREAK IN THE ACTION AFTER IT EXITS OUR
AREA AS 850 MB WINDS VEER TO A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION.  THIS
SHOULD ALLOW THE ATMOSPHERE TO DESTABILIZE...WITH SURFACE-BASED CAPE
VALUES POSSIBLY APPROACHING 2000 JOULES/KG POSSIBLE BY MID-
AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF PERTURBATIONS SHOULD THEN EMANATE FROM THE
WEAKENING/FILLING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON...PUSHING
A COLD FRONT INTO THE ARKLAMISS.  MID-TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES
SHOULD STEEPEN AS THE DISTRUBANCE MOVES THROUGH...WITH DIFLUENCE
INCREASING (ESPECIALLY OVER THE MORE INLAND AREAS) AS THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF THE NEXT JET STREAK APPROACHES OUR AREA.  ADDITIONAL
STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP TO OUR WEST AS A RESULT...AND WILL LIKELY
APPROACH SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE DRIER CONDITIONS IN THE MID-LEVELS...
WHICH SHOULD SOMEWHAT LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE.  STILL...THOUGH...
GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC INGREDIENTS...
WE CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN ADVANCE OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT.  IT LOOKS LIKE OUR NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES WILL
HAVE THE GREATEST ODDS OF SEEING SEVERE STORMS GIVEN THE BEST
COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR.

DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MOVE INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THE FRONT...ALLOWING A COUPLE OF DRY DAYS TO BE SEEN.  WITH AN
INCREASINGLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...THE HIGH SHOULD SLIDE EAST.  THE
RESULT COULD BE THE RETURN OF A SMATTERING OF CONVECTION AS
SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE GULF MOISTURE OVER THE REGION FOR MID-
AND LATE WEEK. /02/

&&

.MARINE...
A LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND WILL SHIFT MOSTLY SOUTH AND
INCREASE LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST. AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
LIKELY BEGINNING LATER THIS MORNING...BECOMING BETTER DEVELOPED THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT...CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY. WINDS AND SEAS
WILL BE HIGHER IN AND AROUND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH
OF THE WEEKEND...WITH A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
OVERNIGHT CONTINUING INTO SUN. A LIGHT TO MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW
WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT BY THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK
BECOMING NORTHEAST THEN EAST LATER IN THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND NORTHEAST GULF. 32/EE


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      77  67  81  67  80 /  80  80  60  30  20
PENSACOLA   80  71  80  69  79 /  70  80  70  30  30
DESTIN      81  72  76  72  78 /  60  70  80  30  30
EVERGREEN   79  67  82  66  82 /  70  80  70  30  30
WAYNESBORO  77  65  83  63  79 /  90  80  50  40  20
CAMDEN      78  67  83  66  80 /  80  90  70  30  20
CRESTVIEW   84  69  80  67  82 /  60  80  80  30  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR BUTLER-CHOCTAW-
     CLARKE-CONECUH-COVINGTON-CRENSHAW-ESCAMBIA-LOWER BALDWIN-
     LOWER MOBILE-MONROE-UPPER BALDWIN-UPPER MOBILE-WASHINGTON-
     WILCOX.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR LOWER BALDWIN-
     LOWER MOBILE.

FL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR COASTAL ESCAMBIA-
     COASTAL OKALOOSA-COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND ESCAMBIA-INLAND
     OKALOOSA-INLAND SANTA ROSA.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL
     ESCAMBIA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-COASTAL SANTA ROSA.

MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR GEORGE-GREENE-PERRY-
     STONE-WAYNE.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM FORECASTER... EE
LONG TERM FORECASTER... BUTTS





000
FXUS64 KMOB 180505 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1205 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

AVIATION...
18.06Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF CYCLE...
PATCHY FOG ALONG WITH LOWERING STRATUS CLOUDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH
IFR VISIBILITIES AND LIFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING MAINLY BETWEEN 18.10Z
THROUGH 18.14Z. THE FOG WILL LIFT QUICKLY SATURDAY MORNING...WITH
CEILINGS LIFTING ONLY SLIGHTLY TO MVFR CRITERIA BY 18.19Z. AREAS OF
LIGHT RAIN WITH EMBEDDED MODERATE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...SO ADDED A
PROB30 GROUP AFTER 18.18Z. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AT
6 TO 10 KNOTS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE AREAS OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED
MODERATE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
EVENING...SO ADDED ANOTHER PROB30 GROUP AFTER 19.00Z THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF FORECAST. /22

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 726 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

PUBLIC UPDATE...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OVER SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
COUNTY WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN MOBILE COUNTY ALONG A WEAK OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA. ANOTHER THUNDERSTORM ON ITS
HEELS WILL MOVE OVER OUR INLAND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. HRRR MODEL DEVELOPS MORE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS MOBILE AND BALDWIN
COUNTIES THROUGH MID EVENING...AND MAY EVEN LINGER TOWARD MIDNIGHT.
UPDATED THE GRIDS AND PUBLIC PRODUCTS TO NOW INCLUDE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST ZONES
THROUGH MIDNIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHERN
GULF COASTAL REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH PATCHY FOG AND LOW STRATUS
FORMING. SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE VISIBILITIES LOWER TO ONE-HALF MILE
LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE ISOLATED POCKETS OF DENSE FOG DUE TO THE SATURATED GROUND FROM
RECENT RAINS. /22

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...EXITING SHORTWAVE WILL
HAVE MOST OF THE CURRENT ACTIVITY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FA
OUT OF THE AREA BY THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST. LATER TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...MORE ENERGY SWINGS AROUND THE BASE OF AN EASTWARD
MEANDERING UPPER LOW OVER THE PLAINS. THE RESULT IS YET ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OVER THE AREA...MAINLY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. PESKY SURFACE BOUNDARY
REMAINS DRAPED OVER THE FA...NORTH OF I10...WITH A VERY MOIST
AIRMASS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. AS THE NEXT ROUND OF ENERGY MOVES
TOWARDS THE FA SATURDAY...AM EXPECTING THE SURFACE BOUNDARY TO MOVE
NORTH A BIT...BUT WITH THE LOW LEVEL WINDS BEING ON THE LIGHT
SIDE...A STRONG NORTHWARD PUSH IS NOT EXPECTED SATURDAY. WHAT IS
EXPECTED IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA FOR
A THUNDERSTORMS OR TWO TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. /16

LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...EXPECT RAINFALL
ACROSS THE REGION TO BE MAXIMIZED AS AREA LIES IN THE WARM SECTOR
UNDER A RIDGE OF HISTORICAL HIGH PWAT VALUES OF 2.0 INCHES WITH A
NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROVIDING ENOUGH FORCING FOR LARGE
SCALE ASCENT. TIMING WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY BUT SUSPECT AN ORGANIZED
MCS WILL HAVE DEVELOPED OVER MISSISSIPPI WITH ENOUGH SHEAR TO
SUSTAIN IT AS IT PROPAGATES EASTWARD OVER SOUTHWESTERN AL AND WESTERN
FL LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THERE IS A
MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IN THE FORM OF ISOLATED
TORNADOES OR STRONG STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND/OR 1" HAIL. SHOULD HAVE
A LITTLE BREAK IF TIMING HOLDS UP THE EARLY PART OF SUNDAY...PERHAPS
THROUGH MIDDAY...THEN THE NEXT SHORTWAVE DRIVING THE COLD FRONT
SHOULD START TO TRIGGER STORMS OVER SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...POSSIBLE
QLCS FORMATION BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON EARLY EVENING...JUST NOT SURE
HOW WELL IT WILL SUSTAIN ITSELF AS MAIN DYNAMICS SHIFT NORTH AND IT
MOVES INTO THE WEAKLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT OVERLYING THE AREA. THE
COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY...BRINGING A WELCOME
RETURN TO DRIER...MORE SETTLED WEATHER AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
ALOFT. /08

MARINE...THE SURFACE TROUGH THAT DEVELOPED OFF THE MS/AL/NW FL COAST
THIS MORN CONTINUES TO FILL...WITH STRONG ONSHORE WINDS MAINLY FROM
PENSACOLA WEST HAVE EASED. /16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      66  76  69  81  66 /  30  80  80  60  30
PENSACOLA   68  77  70  80  68 /  30  60  80  80  30
DESTIN      70  75  70  76  72 /  30  60  70  80  30
EVERGREEN   63  77  68  83  66 /  30  60  80  70  30
WAYNESBORO  62  74  66  85  62 /  30  80  70  60  40
CAMDEN      61  76  67  84  65 /  30  60  80  70  30
CRESTVIEW   67  81  68  80  66 /  30  60  70  80  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR BUTLER-CHOCTAW-
     CLARKE-CONECUH-COVINGTON-CRENSHAW-ESCAMBIA-LOWER BALDWIN-
     LOWER MOBILE-MONROE-UPPER BALDWIN-UPPER MOBILE-WASHINGTON-
     WILCOX.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR LOWER BALDWIN-
     LOWER MOBILE.

FL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR COASTAL ESCAMBIA-
     COASTAL OKALOOSA-COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND ESCAMBIA-INLAND
     OKALOOSA-INLAND SANTA ROSA.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL
     ESCAMBIA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-COASTAL SANTA ROSA.

MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR GEORGE-GREENE-PERRY-
     STONE-WAYNE.

GM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND-NORTHERN MOBILE BAY-PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM-
     PERDIDO BAY-SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY-WATERS FROM DESTIN TO
     PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO
     PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 180505 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1205 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

AVIATION...
18.06Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF CYCLE...
PATCHY FOG ALONG WITH LOWERING STRATUS CLOUDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH
IFR VISIBILITIES AND LIFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING MAINLY BETWEEN 18.10Z
THROUGH 18.14Z. THE FOG WILL LIFT QUICKLY SATURDAY MORNING...WITH
CEILINGS LIFTING ONLY SLIGHTLY TO MVFR CRITERIA BY 18.19Z. AREAS OF
LIGHT RAIN WITH EMBEDDED MODERATE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...SO ADDED A
PROB30 GROUP AFTER 18.18Z. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AT
6 TO 10 KNOTS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE AREAS OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED
MODERATE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
EVENING...SO ADDED ANOTHER PROB30 GROUP AFTER 19.00Z THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF FORECAST. /22

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 726 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

PUBLIC UPDATE...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OVER SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
COUNTY WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN MOBILE COUNTY ALONG A WEAK OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA. ANOTHER THUNDERSTORM ON ITS
HEELS WILL MOVE OVER OUR INLAND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. HRRR MODEL DEVELOPS MORE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS MOBILE AND BALDWIN
COUNTIES THROUGH MID EVENING...AND MAY EVEN LINGER TOWARD MIDNIGHT.
UPDATED THE GRIDS AND PUBLIC PRODUCTS TO NOW INCLUDE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST ZONES
THROUGH MIDNIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHERN
GULF COASTAL REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH PATCHY FOG AND LOW STRATUS
FORMING. SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE VISIBILITIES LOWER TO ONE-HALF MILE
LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE ISOLATED POCKETS OF DENSE FOG DUE TO THE SATURATED GROUND FROM
RECENT RAINS. /22

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...EXITING SHORTWAVE WILL
HAVE MOST OF THE CURRENT ACTIVITY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FA
OUT OF THE AREA BY THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST. LATER TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...MORE ENERGY SWINGS AROUND THE BASE OF AN EASTWARD
MEANDERING UPPER LOW OVER THE PLAINS. THE RESULT IS YET ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OVER THE AREA...MAINLY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. PESKY SURFACE BOUNDARY
REMAINS DRAPED OVER THE FA...NORTH OF I10...WITH A VERY MOIST
AIRMASS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. AS THE NEXT ROUND OF ENERGY MOVES
TOWARDS THE FA SATURDAY...AM EXPECTING THE SURFACE BOUNDARY TO MOVE
NORTH A BIT...BUT WITH THE LOW LEVEL WINDS BEING ON THE LIGHT
SIDE...A STRONG NORTHWARD PUSH IS NOT EXPECTED SATURDAY. WHAT IS
EXPECTED IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA FOR
A THUNDERSTORMS OR TWO TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. /16

LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...EXPECT RAINFALL
ACROSS THE REGION TO BE MAXIMIZED AS AREA LIES IN THE WARM SECTOR
UNDER A RIDGE OF HISTORICAL HIGH PWAT VALUES OF 2.0 INCHES WITH A
NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROVIDING ENOUGH FORCING FOR LARGE
SCALE ASCENT. TIMING WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY BUT SUSPECT AN ORGANIZED
MCS WILL HAVE DEVELOPED OVER MISSISSIPPI WITH ENOUGH SHEAR TO
SUSTAIN IT AS IT PROPAGATES EASTWARD OVER SOUTHWESTERN AL AND WESTERN
FL LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THERE IS A
MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IN THE FORM OF ISOLATED
TORNADOES OR STRONG STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND/OR 1" HAIL. SHOULD HAVE
A LITTLE BREAK IF TIMING HOLDS UP THE EARLY PART OF SUNDAY...PERHAPS
THROUGH MIDDAY...THEN THE NEXT SHORTWAVE DRIVING THE COLD FRONT
SHOULD START TO TRIGGER STORMS OVER SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...POSSIBLE
QLCS FORMATION BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON EARLY EVENING...JUST NOT SURE
HOW WELL IT WILL SUSTAIN ITSELF AS MAIN DYNAMICS SHIFT NORTH AND IT
MOVES INTO THE WEAKLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT OVERLYING THE AREA. THE
COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY...BRINGING A WELCOME
RETURN TO DRIER...MORE SETTLED WEATHER AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
ALOFT. /08

MARINE...THE SURFACE TROUGH THAT DEVELOPED OFF THE MS/AL/NW FL COAST
THIS MORN CONTINUES TO FILL...WITH STRONG ONSHORE WINDS MAINLY FROM
PENSACOLA WEST HAVE EASED. /16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      66  76  69  81  66 /  30  80  80  60  30
PENSACOLA   68  77  70  80  68 /  30  60  80  80  30
DESTIN      70  75  70  76  72 /  30  60  70  80  30
EVERGREEN   63  77  68  83  66 /  30  60  80  70  30
WAYNESBORO  62  74  66  85  62 /  30  80  70  60  40
CAMDEN      61  76  67  84  65 /  30  60  80  70  30
CRESTVIEW   67  81  68  80  66 /  30  60  70  80  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR BUTLER-CHOCTAW-
     CLARKE-CONECUH-COVINGTON-CRENSHAW-ESCAMBIA-LOWER BALDWIN-
     LOWER MOBILE-MONROE-UPPER BALDWIN-UPPER MOBILE-WASHINGTON-
     WILCOX.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR LOWER BALDWIN-
     LOWER MOBILE.

FL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR COASTAL ESCAMBIA-
     COASTAL OKALOOSA-COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND ESCAMBIA-INLAND
     OKALOOSA-INLAND SANTA ROSA.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL
     ESCAMBIA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-COASTAL SANTA ROSA.

MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR GEORGE-GREENE-PERRY-
     STONE-WAYNE.

GM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND-NORTHERN MOBILE BAY-PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM-
     PERDIDO BAY-SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY-WATERS FROM DESTIN TO
     PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO
     PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMOB 180505 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1205 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

AVIATION...
18.06Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF CYCLE...
PATCHY FOG ALONG WITH LOWERING STRATUS CLOUDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH
IFR VISIBILITIES AND LIFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING MAINLY BETWEEN 18.10Z
THROUGH 18.14Z. THE FOG WILL LIFT QUICKLY SATURDAY MORNING...WITH
CEILINGS LIFTING ONLY SLIGHTLY TO MVFR CRITERIA BY 18.19Z. AREAS OF
LIGHT RAIN WITH EMBEDDED MODERATE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...SO ADDED A
PROB30 GROUP AFTER 18.18Z. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AT
6 TO 10 KNOTS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE AREAS OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED
MODERATE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
EVENING...SO ADDED ANOTHER PROB30 GROUP AFTER 19.00Z THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF FORECAST. /22

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 726 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

PUBLIC UPDATE...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OVER SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
COUNTY WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN MOBILE COUNTY ALONG A WEAK OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA. ANOTHER THUNDERSTORM ON ITS
HEELS WILL MOVE OVER OUR INLAND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. HRRR MODEL DEVELOPS MORE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS MOBILE AND BALDWIN
COUNTIES THROUGH MID EVENING...AND MAY EVEN LINGER TOWARD MIDNIGHT.
UPDATED THE GRIDS AND PUBLIC PRODUCTS TO NOW INCLUDE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST ZONES
THROUGH MIDNIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHERN
GULF COASTAL REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH PATCHY FOG AND LOW STRATUS
FORMING. SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE VISIBILITIES LOWER TO ONE-HALF MILE
LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE ISOLATED POCKETS OF DENSE FOG DUE TO THE SATURATED GROUND FROM
RECENT RAINS. /22

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...EXITING SHORTWAVE WILL
HAVE MOST OF THE CURRENT ACTIVITY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FA
OUT OF THE AREA BY THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST. LATER TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...MORE ENERGY SWINGS AROUND THE BASE OF AN EASTWARD
MEANDERING UPPER LOW OVER THE PLAINS. THE RESULT IS YET ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OVER THE AREA...MAINLY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. PESKY SURFACE BOUNDARY
REMAINS DRAPED OVER THE FA...NORTH OF I10...WITH A VERY MOIST
AIRMASS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. AS THE NEXT ROUND OF ENERGY MOVES
TOWARDS THE FA SATURDAY...AM EXPECTING THE SURFACE BOUNDARY TO MOVE
NORTH A BIT...BUT WITH THE LOW LEVEL WINDS BEING ON THE LIGHT
SIDE...A STRONG NORTHWARD PUSH IS NOT EXPECTED SATURDAY. WHAT IS
EXPECTED IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA FOR
A THUNDERSTORMS OR TWO TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. /16

LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...EXPECT RAINFALL
ACROSS THE REGION TO BE MAXIMIZED AS AREA LIES IN THE WARM SECTOR
UNDER A RIDGE OF HISTORICAL HIGH PWAT VALUES OF 2.0 INCHES WITH A
NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROVIDING ENOUGH FORCING FOR LARGE
SCALE ASCENT. TIMING WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY BUT SUSPECT AN ORGANIZED
MCS WILL HAVE DEVELOPED OVER MISSISSIPPI WITH ENOUGH SHEAR TO
SUSTAIN IT AS IT PROPAGATES EASTWARD OVER SOUTHWESTERN AL AND WESTERN
FL LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THERE IS A
MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IN THE FORM OF ISOLATED
TORNADOES OR STRONG STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND/OR 1" HAIL. SHOULD HAVE
A LITTLE BREAK IF TIMING HOLDS UP THE EARLY PART OF SUNDAY...PERHAPS
THROUGH MIDDAY...THEN THE NEXT SHORTWAVE DRIVING THE COLD FRONT
SHOULD START TO TRIGGER STORMS OVER SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...POSSIBLE
QLCS FORMATION BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON EARLY EVENING...JUST NOT SURE
HOW WELL IT WILL SUSTAIN ITSELF AS MAIN DYNAMICS SHIFT NORTH AND IT
MOVES INTO THE WEAKLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT OVERLYING THE AREA. THE
COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY...BRINGING A WELCOME
RETURN TO DRIER...MORE SETTLED WEATHER AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
ALOFT. /08

MARINE...THE SURFACE TROUGH THAT DEVELOPED OFF THE MS/AL/NW FL COAST
THIS MORN CONTINUES TO FILL...WITH STRONG ONSHORE WINDS MAINLY FROM
PENSACOLA WEST HAVE EASED. /16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      66  76  69  81  66 /  30  80  80  60  30
PENSACOLA   68  77  70  80  68 /  30  60  80  80  30
DESTIN      70  75  70  76  72 /  30  60  70  80  30
EVERGREEN   63  77  68  83  66 /  30  60  80  70  30
WAYNESBORO  62  74  66  85  62 /  30  80  70  60  40
CAMDEN      61  76  67  84  65 /  30  60  80  70  30
CRESTVIEW   67  81  68  80  66 /  30  60  70  80  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR BUTLER-CHOCTAW-
     CLARKE-CONECUH-COVINGTON-CRENSHAW-ESCAMBIA-LOWER BALDWIN-
     LOWER MOBILE-MONROE-UPPER BALDWIN-UPPER MOBILE-WASHINGTON-
     WILCOX.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR LOWER BALDWIN-
     LOWER MOBILE.

FL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR COASTAL ESCAMBIA-
     COASTAL OKALOOSA-COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND ESCAMBIA-INLAND
     OKALOOSA-INLAND SANTA ROSA.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL
     ESCAMBIA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-COASTAL SANTA ROSA.

MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR GEORGE-GREENE-PERRY-
     STONE-WAYNE.

GM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND-NORTHERN MOBILE BAY-PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM-
     PERDIDO BAY-SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY-WATERS FROM DESTIN TO
     PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO
     PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMOB 180026 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
726 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.AVIATION...
18.00Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF CYCLE...
A LONE THUNDERSTORM MOVING INTO NORTHERN MOBILE COUNTY SHOULD LIKLEY
STAY NORTH OF THE KMOB AND KBFM TAF SITES EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT
SEND AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THROUGH CENTRAL MOBILE COUNTY BY 18.02Z
BRINGING A LIGHT NORTH WIND...RAIN SHOWERS AND MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH
18.06Z. KPNS WILL STAY RAIN-FREE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. PATCHY
FOG WILL DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH LIFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS
DEVELOPING MAINLY BETWEEN 18.10Z THROUGH 18.14Z. THE FOG WILL LIFT
QUICKLY SATURDAY MORNING...WITH CEILINGS LIFTING ONLY SLIGHTLY TO IFR
CRITERIA THROUGH 18.18Z. AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN WITH EMBEDDED MODERATE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...SO ADDED A PROB30 GROUP AFTER 18.18Z. WINDS WILL
ALSO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AT 6 TO 10 KNOTS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. /22

.PUBLIC UPDATE...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OVER SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
COUNTY WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN MOBILE COUNTY ALONG A WEAK OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA. ANOTHER THUNDERSTORM ON ITS
HEELS WILL MOVE OVER OUR INLAND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. HRRR MODEL DEVELOPS MORE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS MOBILE AND BALDWIN
COUNTIES THROUGH MID EVENING...AND MAY EVEN LINGER TOWARD MIDNIGHT.
UPDATED THE GRIDS AND PUBLIC PRODUCTS TO NOW INCLUDE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST ZONES
THROUGH MIDNIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHERN
GULF COASTAL REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH PATCHY FOG AND LOW STRATUS
FORMING. SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE VISIBILITIES LOWER TO ONE-HALF MILE
LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE ISOLATED POCKETS OF DENSE FOG DUE TO THE SATURATED GROUND FROM
RECENT RAINS. /22

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...EXITING SHORTWAVE WILL
HAVE MOST OF THE CURRENT ACTIVITY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FA
OUT OF THE AREA BY THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST. LATER TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...MORE ENERGY SWINGS AROUND THE BASE OF AN EASTWARD
MEANDERING UPPER LOW OVER THE PLAINS. THE RESULT IS YET ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OVER THE AREA...MAINLY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. PESKY SURFACE BOUNDARY
REMAINS DRAPED OVER THE FA...NORTH OF I10...WITH A VERY MOIST
AIRMASS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. AS THE NEXT ROUND OF ENERGY MOVES
TOWARDS THE FA SATURDAY...AM EXPECTING THE SURFACE BOUNDARY TO MOVE
NORTH A BIT...BUT WITH THE LOW LEVEL WINDS BEING ON THE LIGHT
SIDE...A STRONG NORTHWARD PUSH IS NOT EXPECTED SATURDAY. WHAT IS
EXPECTED IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA FOR
A THUNDERSTORMS OR TWO TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. /16

LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...EXPECT RAINFALL
ACROSS THE REGION TO BE MAXIMIZED AS AREA LIES IN THE WARM SECTOR
UNDER A RIDGE OF HISTORICAL HIGH PWAT VALUES OF 2.0 INCHES WITH A
NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROVIDING ENOUGH FORCING FOR LARGE
SCALE ASCENT. TIMING WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY BUT SUSPECT AN ORGANIZED
MCS WILL HAVE DEVELOPED OVER MISSISSIPPI WITH ENOUGH SHEAR TO
SUSTAIN IT AS IT PROPAGATES EASTWARD OVER SOUTHWESTERN AL AND WESTERN
FL LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THERE IS A
MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IN THE FORM OF ISOLATED
TORNADOES OR STRONG STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND/OR 1" HAIL. SHOULD HAVE
A LITTLE BREAK IF TIMING HOLDS UP THE EARLY PART OF SUNDAY...PERHAPS
THROUGH MIDDAY...THEN THE NEXT SHORTWAVE DRIVING THE COLD FRONT
SHOULD START TO TRIGGER STORMS OVER SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...POSSIBLE
QLCS FORMATION BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON EARLY EVENING...JUST NOT SURE
HOW WELL IT WILL SUSTAIN ITSELF AS MAIN DYNAMICS SHIFT NORTH AND IT
MOVES INTO THE WEAKLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT OVERLYING THE AREA. THE
COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY...BRINGING A WELCOME
RETURN TO DRIER...MORE SETTLED WEATHER AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
ALOFT. /08

MARINE...THE SURFACE TROUGH THAT DEVELOPED OFF THE MS/AL/NW FL COAST
THIS MORN CONTINUES TO FILL...WITH STRONG ONSHORE WINDS MAINLY FROM
PENSACOLA WEST HAVE EASED. /16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      66  76  69  81  66 /  30  80  80  60  30
PENSACOLA   68  77  70  80  68 /  30  60  80  80  30
DESTIN      70  75  70  76  72 /  30  60  70  80  30
EVERGREEN   63  77  68  83  66 /  30  60  80  70  30
WAYNESBORO  62  74  66  85  62 /  30  80  70  60  40
CAMDEN      61  76  67  84  65 /  30  60  80  70  30
CRESTVIEW   67  81  68  80  66 /  30  60  70  80  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR BUTLER-CHOCTAW-
     CLARKE-CONECUH-COVINGTON-CRENSHAW-ESCAMBIA-LOWER BALDWIN-
     LOWER MOBILE-MONROE-UPPER BALDWIN-UPPER MOBILE-WASHINGTON-
     WILCOX.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR LOWER BALDWIN-
     LOWER MOBILE.

FL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR COASTAL ESCAMBIA-
     COASTAL OKALOOSA-COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND ESCAMBIA-INLAND
     OKALOOSA-INLAND SANTA ROSA.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL
     ESCAMBIA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-COASTAL SANTA ROSA.

MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR GEORGE-GREENE-PERRY-
     STONE-WAYNE.

GM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND-NORTHERN MOBILE BAY-PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM-
     PERDIDO BAY-SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY-WATERS FROM DESTIN TO
     PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO
     PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMOB 180026 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
726 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.AVIATION...
18.00Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF CYCLE...
A LONE THUNDERSTORM MOVING INTO NORTHERN MOBILE COUNTY SHOULD LIKLEY
STAY NORTH OF THE KMOB AND KBFM TAF SITES EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT
SEND AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THROUGH CENTRAL MOBILE COUNTY BY 18.02Z
BRINGING A LIGHT NORTH WIND...RAIN SHOWERS AND MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH
18.06Z. KPNS WILL STAY RAIN-FREE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. PATCHY
FOG WILL DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH LIFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS
DEVELOPING MAINLY BETWEEN 18.10Z THROUGH 18.14Z. THE FOG WILL LIFT
QUICKLY SATURDAY MORNING...WITH CEILINGS LIFTING ONLY SLIGHTLY TO IFR
CRITERIA THROUGH 18.18Z. AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN WITH EMBEDDED MODERATE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...SO ADDED A PROB30 GROUP AFTER 18.18Z. WINDS WILL
ALSO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AT 6 TO 10 KNOTS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. /22

.PUBLIC UPDATE...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OVER SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
COUNTY WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN MOBILE COUNTY ALONG A WEAK OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA. ANOTHER THUNDERSTORM ON ITS
HEELS WILL MOVE OVER OUR INLAND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. HRRR MODEL DEVELOPS MORE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS MOBILE AND BALDWIN
COUNTIES THROUGH MID EVENING...AND MAY EVEN LINGER TOWARD MIDNIGHT.
UPDATED THE GRIDS AND PUBLIC PRODUCTS TO NOW INCLUDE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST ZONES
THROUGH MIDNIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHERN
GULF COASTAL REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH PATCHY FOG AND LOW STRATUS
FORMING. SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE VISIBILITIES LOWER TO ONE-HALF MILE
LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE ISOLATED POCKETS OF DENSE FOG DUE TO THE SATURATED GROUND FROM
RECENT RAINS. /22

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...EXITING SHORTWAVE WILL
HAVE MOST OF THE CURRENT ACTIVITY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FA
OUT OF THE AREA BY THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST. LATER TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...MORE ENERGY SWINGS AROUND THE BASE OF AN EASTWARD
MEANDERING UPPER LOW OVER THE PLAINS. THE RESULT IS YET ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OVER THE AREA...MAINLY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. PESKY SURFACE BOUNDARY
REMAINS DRAPED OVER THE FA...NORTH OF I10...WITH A VERY MOIST
AIRMASS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. AS THE NEXT ROUND OF ENERGY MOVES
TOWARDS THE FA SATURDAY...AM EXPECTING THE SURFACE BOUNDARY TO MOVE
NORTH A BIT...BUT WITH THE LOW LEVEL WINDS BEING ON THE LIGHT
SIDE...A STRONG NORTHWARD PUSH IS NOT EXPECTED SATURDAY. WHAT IS
EXPECTED IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA FOR
A THUNDERSTORMS OR TWO TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. /16

LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...EXPECT RAINFALL
ACROSS THE REGION TO BE MAXIMIZED AS AREA LIES IN THE WARM SECTOR
UNDER A RIDGE OF HISTORICAL HIGH PWAT VALUES OF 2.0 INCHES WITH A
NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROVIDING ENOUGH FORCING FOR LARGE
SCALE ASCENT. TIMING WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY BUT SUSPECT AN ORGANIZED
MCS WILL HAVE DEVELOPED OVER MISSISSIPPI WITH ENOUGH SHEAR TO
SUSTAIN IT AS IT PROPAGATES EASTWARD OVER SOUTHWESTERN AL AND WESTERN
FL LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THERE IS A
MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IN THE FORM OF ISOLATED
TORNADOES OR STRONG STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND/OR 1" HAIL. SHOULD HAVE
A LITTLE BREAK IF TIMING HOLDS UP THE EARLY PART OF SUNDAY...PERHAPS
THROUGH MIDDAY...THEN THE NEXT SHORTWAVE DRIVING THE COLD FRONT
SHOULD START TO TRIGGER STORMS OVER SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...POSSIBLE
QLCS FORMATION BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON EARLY EVENING...JUST NOT SURE
HOW WELL IT WILL SUSTAIN ITSELF AS MAIN DYNAMICS SHIFT NORTH AND IT
MOVES INTO THE WEAKLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT OVERLYING THE AREA. THE
COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY...BRINGING A WELCOME
RETURN TO DRIER...MORE SETTLED WEATHER AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
ALOFT. /08

MARINE...THE SURFACE TROUGH THAT DEVELOPED OFF THE MS/AL/NW FL COAST
THIS MORN CONTINUES TO FILL...WITH STRONG ONSHORE WINDS MAINLY FROM
PENSACOLA WEST HAVE EASED. /16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      66  76  69  81  66 /  30  80  80  60  30
PENSACOLA   68  77  70  80  68 /  30  60  80  80  30
DESTIN      70  75  70  76  72 /  30  60  70  80  30
EVERGREEN   63  77  68  83  66 /  30  60  80  70  30
WAYNESBORO  62  74  66  85  62 /  30  80  70  60  40
CAMDEN      61  76  67  84  65 /  30  60  80  70  30
CRESTVIEW   67  81  68  80  66 /  30  60  70  80  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR BUTLER-CHOCTAW-
     CLARKE-CONECUH-COVINGTON-CRENSHAW-ESCAMBIA-LOWER BALDWIN-
     LOWER MOBILE-MONROE-UPPER BALDWIN-UPPER MOBILE-WASHINGTON-
     WILCOX.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR LOWER BALDWIN-
     LOWER MOBILE.

FL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR COASTAL ESCAMBIA-
     COASTAL OKALOOSA-COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND ESCAMBIA-INLAND
     OKALOOSA-INLAND SANTA ROSA.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL
     ESCAMBIA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-COASTAL SANTA ROSA.

MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR GEORGE-GREENE-PERRY-
     STONE-WAYNE.

GM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND-NORTHERN MOBILE BAY-PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM-
     PERDIDO BAY-SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY-WATERS FROM DESTIN TO
     PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO
     PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 180026 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
726 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.AVIATION...
18.00Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF CYCLE...
A LONE THUNDERSTORM MOVING INTO NORTHERN MOBILE COUNTY SHOULD LIKLEY
STAY NORTH OF THE KMOB AND KBFM TAF SITES EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT
SEND AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THROUGH CENTRAL MOBILE COUNTY BY 18.02Z
BRINGING A LIGHT NORTH WIND...RAIN SHOWERS AND MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH
18.06Z. KPNS WILL STAY RAIN-FREE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. PATCHY
FOG WILL DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH LIFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS
DEVELOPING MAINLY BETWEEN 18.10Z THROUGH 18.14Z. THE FOG WILL LIFT
QUICKLY SATURDAY MORNING...WITH CEILINGS LIFTING ONLY SLIGHTLY TO IFR
CRITERIA THROUGH 18.18Z. AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN WITH EMBEDDED MODERATE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...SO ADDED A PROB30 GROUP AFTER 18.18Z. WINDS WILL
ALSO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AT 6 TO 10 KNOTS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. /22

.PUBLIC UPDATE...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OVER SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
COUNTY WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN MOBILE COUNTY ALONG A WEAK OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA. ANOTHER THUNDERSTORM ON ITS
HEELS WILL MOVE OVER OUR INLAND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. HRRR MODEL DEVELOPS MORE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS MOBILE AND BALDWIN
COUNTIES THROUGH MID EVENING...AND MAY EVEN LINGER TOWARD MIDNIGHT.
UPDATED THE GRIDS AND PUBLIC PRODUCTS TO NOW INCLUDE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST ZONES
THROUGH MIDNIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHERN
GULF COASTAL REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH PATCHY FOG AND LOW STRATUS
FORMING. SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE VISIBILITIES LOWER TO ONE-HALF MILE
LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE ISOLATED POCKETS OF DENSE FOG DUE TO THE SATURATED GROUND FROM
RECENT RAINS. /22

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...EXITING SHORTWAVE WILL
HAVE MOST OF THE CURRENT ACTIVITY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FA
OUT OF THE AREA BY THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST. LATER TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...MORE ENERGY SWINGS AROUND THE BASE OF AN EASTWARD
MEANDERING UPPER LOW OVER THE PLAINS. THE RESULT IS YET ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OVER THE AREA...MAINLY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. PESKY SURFACE BOUNDARY
REMAINS DRAPED OVER THE FA...NORTH OF I10...WITH A VERY MOIST
AIRMASS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. AS THE NEXT ROUND OF ENERGY MOVES
TOWARDS THE FA SATURDAY...AM EXPECTING THE SURFACE BOUNDARY TO MOVE
NORTH A BIT...BUT WITH THE LOW LEVEL WINDS BEING ON THE LIGHT
SIDE...A STRONG NORTHWARD PUSH IS NOT EXPECTED SATURDAY. WHAT IS
EXPECTED IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA FOR
A THUNDERSTORMS OR TWO TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. /16

LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...EXPECT RAINFALL
ACROSS THE REGION TO BE MAXIMIZED AS AREA LIES IN THE WARM SECTOR
UNDER A RIDGE OF HISTORICAL HIGH PWAT VALUES OF 2.0 INCHES WITH A
NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROVIDING ENOUGH FORCING FOR LARGE
SCALE ASCENT. TIMING WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY BUT SUSPECT AN ORGANIZED
MCS WILL HAVE DEVELOPED OVER MISSISSIPPI WITH ENOUGH SHEAR TO
SUSTAIN IT AS IT PROPAGATES EASTWARD OVER SOUTHWESTERN AL AND WESTERN
FL LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THERE IS A
MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IN THE FORM OF ISOLATED
TORNADOES OR STRONG STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND/OR 1" HAIL. SHOULD HAVE
A LITTLE BREAK IF TIMING HOLDS UP THE EARLY PART OF SUNDAY...PERHAPS
THROUGH MIDDAY...THEN THE NEXT SHORTWAVE DRIVING THE COLD FRONT
SHOULD START TO TRIGGER STORMS OVER SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...POSSIBLE
QLCS FORMATION BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON EARLY EVENING...JUST NOT SURE
HOW WELL IT WILL SUSTAIN ITSELF AS MAIN DYNAMICS SHIFT NORTH AND IT
MOVES INTO THE WEAKLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT OVERLYING THE AREA. THE
COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY...BRINGING A WELCOME
RETURN TO DRIER...MORE SETTLED WEATHER AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
ALOFT. /08

MARINE...THE SURFACE TROUGH THAT DEVELOPED OFF THE MS/AL/NW FL COAST
THIS MORN CONTINUES TO FILL...WITH STRONG ONSHORE WINDS MAINLY FROM
PENSACOLA WEST HAVE EASED. /16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      66  76  69  81  66 /  30  80  80  60  30
PENSACOLA   68  77  70  80  68 /  30  60  80  80  30
DESTIN      70  75  70  76  72 /  30  60  70  80  30
EVERGREEN   63  77  68  83  66 /  30  60  80  70  30
WAYNESBORO  62  74  66  85  62 /  30  80  70  60  40
CAMDEN      61  76  67  84  65 /  30  60  80  70  30
CRESTVIEW   67  81  68  80  66 /  30  60  70  80  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR BUTLER-CHOCTAW-
     CLARKE-CONECUH-COVINGTON-CRENSHAW-ESCAMBIA-LOWER BALDWIN-
     LOWER MOBILE-MONROE-UPPER BALDWIN-UPPER MOBILE-WASHINGTON-
     WILCOX.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR LOWER BALDWIN-
     LOWER MOBILE.

FL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR COASTAL ESCAMBIA-
     COASTAL OKALOOSA-COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND ESCAMBIA-INLAND
     OKALOOSA-INLAND SANTA ROSA.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL
     ESCAMBIA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-COASTAL SANTA ROSA.

MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR GEORGE-GREENE-PERRY-
     STONE-WAYNE.

GM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND-NORTHERN MOBILE BAY-PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM-
     PERDIDO BAY-SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY-WATERS FROM DESTIN TO
     PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO
     PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 180026 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
726 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.AVIATION...
18.00Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF CYCLE...
A LONE THUNDERSTORM MOVING INTO NORTHERN MOBILE COUNTY SHOULD LIKLEY
STAY NORTH OF THE KMOB AND KBFM TAF SITES EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT
SEND AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THROUGH CENTRAL MOBILE COUNTY BY 18.02Z
BRINGING A LIGHT NORTH WIND...RAIN SHOWERS AND MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH
18.06Z. KPNS WILL STAY RAIN-FREE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. PATCHY
FOG WILL DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH LIFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS
DEVELOPING MAINLY BETWEEN 18.10Z THROUGH 18.14Z. THE FOG WILL LIFT
QUICKLY SATURDAY MORNING...WITH CEILINGS LIFTING ONLY SLIGHTLY TO IFR
CRITERIA THROUGH 18.18Z. AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN WITH EMBEDDED MODERATE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...SO ADDED A PROB30 GROUP AFTER 18.18Z. WINDS WILL
ALSO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AT 6 TO 10 KNOTS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. /22

.PUBLIC UPDATE...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OVER SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
COUNTY WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN MOBILE COUNTY ALONG A WEAK OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA. ANOTHER THUNDERSTORM ON ITS
HEELS WILL MOVE OVER OUR INLAND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. HRRR MODEL DEVELOPS MORE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS MOBILE AND BALDWIN
COUNTIES THROUGH MID EVENING...AND MAY EVEN LINGER TOWARD MIDNIGHT.
UPDATED THE GRIDS AND PUBLIC PRODUCTS TO NOW INCLUDE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST ZONES
THROUGH MIDNIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHERN
GULF COASTAL REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH PATCHY FOG AND LOW STRATUS
FORMING. SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE VISIBILITIES LOWER TO ONE-HALF MILE
LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE ISOLATED POCKETS OF DENSE FOG DUE TO THE SATURATED GROUND FROM
RECENT RAINS. /22

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...EXITING SHORTWAVE WILL
HAVE MOST OF THE CURRENT ACTIVITY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FA
OUT OF THE AREA BY THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST. LATER TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...MORE ENERGY SWINGS AROUND THE BASE OF AN EASTWARD
MEANDERING UPPER LOW OVER THE PLAINS. THE RESULT IS YET ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OVER THE AREA...MAINLY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. PESKY SURFACE BOUNDARY
REMAINS DRAPED OVER THE FA...NORTH OF I10...WITH A VERY MOIST
AIRMASS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. AS THE NEXT ROUND OF ENERGY MOVES
TOWARDS THE FA SATURDAY...AM EXPECTING THE SURFACE BOUNDARY TO MOVE
NORTH A BIT...BUT WITH THE LOW LEVEL WINDS BEING ON THE LIGHT
SIDE...A STRONG NORTHWARD PUSH IS NOT EXPECTED SATURDAY. WHAT IS
EXPECTED IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA FOR
A THUNDERSTORMS OR TWO TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. /16

LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...EXPECT RAINFALL
ACROSS THE REGION TO BE MAXIMIZED AS AREA LIES IN THE WARM SECTOR
UNDER A RIDGE OF HISTORICAL HIGH PWAT VALUES OF 2.0 INCHES WITH A
NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROVIDING ENOUGH FORCING FOR LARGE
SCALE ASCENT. TIMING WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY BUT SUSPECT AN ORGANIZED
MCS WILL HAVE DEVELOPED OVER MISSISSIPPI WITH ENOUGH SHEAR TO
SUSTAIN IT AS IT PROPAGATES EASTWARD OVER SOUTHWESTERN AL AND WESTERN
FL LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THERE IS A
MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IN THE FORM OF ISOLATED
TORNADOES OR STRONG STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND/OR 1" HAIL. SHOULD HAVE
A LITTLE BREAK IF TIMING HOLDS UP THE EARLY PART OF SUNDAY...PERHAPS
THROUGH MIDDAY...THEN THE NEXT SHORTWAVE DRIVING THE COLD FRONT
SHOULD START TO TRIGGER STORMS OVER SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...POSSIBLE
QLCS FORMATION BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON EARLY EVENING...JUST NOT SURE
HOW WELL IT WILL SUSTAIN ITSELF AS MAIN DYNAMICS SHIFT NORTH AND IT
MOVES INTO THE WEAKLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT OVERLYING THE AREA. THE
COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY...BRINGING A WELCOME
RETURN TO DRIER...MORE SETTLED WEATHER AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
ALOFT. /08

MARINE...THE SURFACE TROUGH THAT DEVELOPED OFF THE MS/AL/NW FL COAST
THIS MORN CONTINUES TO FILL...WITH STRONG ONSHORE WINDS MAINLY FROM
PENSACOLA WEST HAVE EASED. /16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      66  76  69  81  66 /  30  80  80  60  30
PENSACOLA   68  77  70  80  68 /  30  60  80  80  30
DESTIN      70  75  70  76  72 /  30  60  70  80  30
EVERGREEN   63  77  68  83  66 /  30  60  80  70  30
WAYNESBORO  62  74  66  85  62 /  30  80  70  60  40
CAMDEN      61  76  67  84  65 /  30  60  80  70  30
CRESTVIEW   67  81  68  80  66 /  30  60  70  80  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR BUTLER-CHOCTAW-
     CLARKE-CONECUH-COVINGTON-CRENSHAW-ESCAMBIA-LOWER BALDWIN-
     LOWER MOBILE-MONROE-UPPER BALDWIN-UPPER MOBILE-WASHINGTON-
     WILCOX.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR LOWER BALDWIN-
     LOWER MOBILE.

FL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR COASTAL ESCAMBIA-
     COASTAL OKALOOSA-COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND ESCAMBIA-INLAND
     OKALOOSA-INLAND SANTA ROSA.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL
     ESCAMBIA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-COASTAL SANTA ROSA.

MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR GEORGE-GREENE-PERRY-
     STONE-WAYNE.

GM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND-NORTHERN MOBILE BAY-PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM-
     PERDIDO BAY-SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY-WATERS FROM DESTIN TO
     PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO
     PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMOB 172112
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
412 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...EXITING SHORTWAVE WILL
HAVE MOST OF THE CURRENT ACTIVITY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FA
OUT OF THE AREA BY THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST. LATER TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...MORE ENERGY SWINGS AROUND THE BASE OF AN EASTWARD
MEANDERING UPPER LOW OVER THE PLAINS. THE RESULT IS YET ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OVER THE AREA...MAINLY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. PESKY SURFACE BOUNDARY
REMAINS DRAPED OVER THE FA...NORTH OF I10...WITH A VERY MOIST
AIRMASS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. AS THE NEXT ROUND OF ENERGY MOVES
TOWARDS THE FA SATURDAY...AM EXPECTING THE SURFACE BOUNDARY TO MOVE
NORTH A BIT...BUT WITH THE LOW LEVEL WINDS BEING ON THE LIGHT
SIDE...A STRONG NORTHWARD PUSH IS NOT EXPECTED SATURDAY. WHAT IS
EXPECTED IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA FOR
A THUNDERSTORMS OR TWO TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. /16

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...EXPECT RAINFALL
ACROSS THE REGION TO BE MAXIMIZED AS AREA LIES IN THE WARM SECTOR
UNDER A RIDGE OF HISTORICAL HIGH PWAT VALUES OF 2.0 INCHES WITH A
NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROVIDING ENOUGH FORCING FOR LARGE
SCALE ASCENT. TIMING WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY BUT SUSPECT AN ORGANIZED
MCS WILL HAVE DEVELOPED OVER MISSISSIPPI WITH ENOUGH SHEAR TO
SUSTAIN IT AS IT PROPAGATES EASTWARD OVER SOUTHWESTERN AL AND WESTERN
FL LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THERE IS A
MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IN THE FORM OF ISOLATED
TORNADOES OR STRONG STRAIGHT LINE WINDS ANF/OR 1" HAIL. SHOULD HAVE
A LITTLE BREAK IF TIMING HOLDS UP THE EARLY PART OF SUNDAY...PERHAPS
THROUGH MIDDAY...THEN THE NEXT SHORTWAVE DRIVING THE COLD FRONT
SHOULD START TO TRIGGER STORMS OVER SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...POSSIBLE
QLCS FORMATION BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON EARLY EVENING...JUST NOT SURE
HOW WELL IT WILL SUSTAIN ITSELF AS MAIN DYNAMICS SHIFT NORTH AND IT
MOVES INTO THE WEAKLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT OVERLYING THE AREA. THE
COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY...BRINGING A WELCOME
RETURN TO DRIER...MORE SETTLED WEATHER AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
ALOFT. /08


&&

.AVIATION...18Z ISSUANCE...PESKY OVER-RUNNING SHRA WILL CONTINUE
INTO TONIGHT... WITH MVFR CIGS/VISBYS DROPPING INTO IFR LEVELS
OVERNIGHT. MORE SHRA ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE AREA
SATURDAY...WITH STRONGER STORMS MOVING OVER THE AREA IN THE
AFTERNOON. /16

&&

.MARINE...THE SURFACE TROUGH THAT DEVELOPED OFF THE MS/AL/NW FL
COAST THIS MORN CONTINUES TO FILL...WITH STRONG ONSHORE WINDS MAINLY
FROM PENSACOLA WEST HAVE EASED.  /16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      66  76  69  81  66 /  20  80  80  60  30
PENSACOLA   68  77  70  80  68 /  20  60  80  80  30
DESTIN      70  75  70  76  72 /  20  60  70  80  30
EVERGREEN   63  77  68  83  66 /  20  60  80  70  30
WAYNESBORO  62  74  66  85  62 /  10  80  70  60  40
CAMDEN      61  76  67  84  65 /  10  60  80  70  30
CRESTVIEW   67  81  68  80  66 /  20  60  70  80  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR BUTLER-CHOCTAW-
     CLARKE-CONECUH-COVINGTON-CRENSHAW-ESCAMBIA-LOWER BALDWIN-
     LOWER MOBILE-MONROE-UPPER BALDWIN-UPPER MOBILE-WASHINGTON-
     WILCOX.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR LOWER BALDWIN-
     LOWER MOBILE.

FL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR COASTAL ESCAMBIA-
     COASTAL OKALOOSA-COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND ESCAMBIA-INLAND
     OKALOOSA-INLAND SANTA ROSA.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL
     ESCAMBIA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-COASTAL SANTA ROSA.

MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR GEORGE-GREENE-PERRY-
     STONE-WAYNE.

GM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND-NORTHERN MOBILE BAY-PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM-
     PERDIDO BAY-SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY-WATERS FROM DESTIN TO
     PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO
     PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMOB 172112
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
412 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...EXITING SHORTWAVE WILL
HAVE MOST OF THE CURRENT ACTIVITY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FA
OUT OF THE AREA BY THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST. LATER TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...MORE ENERGY SWINGS AROUND THE BASE OF AN EASTWARD
MEANDERING UPPER LOW OVER THE PLAINS. THE RESULT IS YET ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OVER THE AREA...MAINLY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. PESKY SURFACE BOUNDARY
REMAINS DRAPED OVER THE FA...NORTH OF I10...WITH A VERY MOIST
AIRMASS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. AS THE NEXT ROUND OF ENERGY MOVES
TOWARDS THE FA SATURDAY...AM EXPECTING THE SURFACE BOUNDARY TO MOVE
NORTH A BIT...BUT WITH THE LOW LEVEL WINDS BEING ON THE LIGHT
SIDE...A STRONG NORTHWARD PUSH IS NOT EXPECTED SATURDAY. WHAT IS
EXPECTED IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA FOR
A THUNDERSTORMS OR TWO TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. /16

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...EXPECT RAINFALL
ACROSS THE REGION TO BE MAXIMIZED AS AREA LIES IN THE WARM SECTOR
UNDER A RIDGE OF HISTORICAL HIGH PWAT VALUES OF 2.0 INCHES WITH A
NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROVIDING ENOUGH FORCING FOR LARGE
SCALE ASCENT. TIMING WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY BUT SUSPECT AN ORGANIZED
MCS WILL HAVE DEVELOPED OVER MISSISSIPPI WITH ENOUGH SHEAR TO
SUSTAIN IT AS IT PROPAGATES EASTWARD OVER SOUTHWESTERN AL AND WESTERN
FL LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THERE IS A
MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IN THE FORM OF ISOLATED
TORNADOES OR STRONG STRAIGHT LINE WINDS ANF/OR 1" HAIL. SHOULD HAVE
A LITTLE BREAK IF TIMING HOLDS UP THE EARLY PART OF SUNDAY...PERHAPS
THROUGH MIDDAY...THEN THE NEXT SHORTWAVE DRIVING THE COLD FRONT
SHOULD START TO TRIGGER STORMS OVER SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...POSSIBLE
QLCS FORMATION BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON EARLY EVENING...JUST NOT SURE
HOW WELL IT WILL SUSTAIN ITSELF AS MAIN DYNAMICS SHIFT NORTH AND IT
MOVES INTO THE WEAKLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT OVERLYING THE AREA. THE
COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY...BRINGING A WELCOME
RETURN TO DRIER...MORE SETTLED WEATHER AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
ALOFT. /08


&&

.AVIATION...18Z ISSUANCE...PESKY OVER-RUNNING SHRA WILL CONTINUE
INTO TONIGHT... WITH MVFR CIGS/VISBYS DROPPING INTO IFR LEVELS
OVERNIGHT. MORE SHRA ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE AREA
SATURDAY...WITH STRONGER STORMS MOVING OVER THE AREA IN THE
AFTERNOON. /16

&&

.MARINE...THE SURFACE TROUGH THAT DEVELOPED OFF THE MS/AL/NW FL
COAST THIS MORN CONTINUES TO FILL...WITH STRONG ONSHORE WINDS MAINLY
FROM PENSACOLA WEST HAVE EASED.  /16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      66  76  69  81  66 /  20  80  80  60  30
PENSACOLA   68  77  70  80  68 /  20  60  80  80  30
DESTIN      70  75  70  76  72 /  20  60  70  80  30
EVERGREEN   63  77  68  83  66 /  20  60  80  70  30
WAYNESBORO  62  74  66  85  62 /  10  80  70  60  40
CAMDEN      61  76  67  84  65 /  10  60  80  70  30
CRESTVIEW   67  81  68  80  66 /  20  60  70  80  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR BUTLER-CHOCTAW-
     CLARKE-CONECUH-COVINGTON-CRENSHAW-ESCAMBIA-LOWER BALDWIN-
     LOWER MOBILE-MONROE-UPPER BALDWIN-UPPER MOBILE-WASHINGTON-
     WILCOX.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR LOWER BALDWIN-
     LOWER MOBILE.

FL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR COASTAL ESCAMBIA-
     COASTAL OKALOOSA-COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND ESCAMBIA-INLAND
     OKALOOSA-INLAND SANTA ROSA.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL
     ESCAMBIA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-COASTAL SANTA ROSA.

MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR GEORGE-GREENE-PERRY-
     STONE-WAYNE.

GM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND-NORTHERN MOBILE BAY-PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM-
     PERDIDO BAY-SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY-WATERS FROM DESTIN TO
     PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO
     PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 171736 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM AND AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1230 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...TWEAKING NEEDED TO CURRENT PACKAGE...MAINLY FOR THE
COASTAL AND MARINE PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST. A SURFACE TROUGH
DEVELOPED OVER MS-NW FL PANHANDLE COASTAL WATERS THIS
MORN...BRINGING VERY STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW AND ROUGH SEAS AND SURF.
TEMPS/POPS GENERAL ON TRACK...WITH WIDESPREAD SHRA OVER THE FA
ATTM. UPDATES TRANSMITTED.

/16

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z ISSUANCE...PESKY OVER-RUNNING SHRA WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT...
WITH MVFR CIGS/VISBYS DROPPING INTO IFR LEVELS OVERNIGHT. MORE SHRA
ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE AREA SATURDAY...WITH STRONGER STORMS
MOVING OVER THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON.

/16

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...STILL A BIT OF A CHALLENGE WHERE
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR LATER TODAY. CURRENTLY
RADAR LOOPS CONTINUE SHOW HEAVY RAIN OVER THE NW QUAD OF THE CWFA
WITH STORM TOTALS OF 7 TO 8 IN LOCALLY OVER LOWER PARTS OF CHOCTAW
CO IN SW AL RESULTING IN SEVERAL ROAD AND BUSINESSES CLOSED IN AND
THE AROUND THE TOWN OF GILBERTOWN AL. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS
THE HEAVIEST RAIN TO OCCUR OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
CWFA THIS MORNING THEN SHIFTING EAST...MOSTLY INLAND...AND GRADUALLY
WEAKENING IN INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AS A SHORT
LIVED UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL GULF REGION LATE
THIS EVENING...WITH RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING EAST OF THE CWFA SHORTLY
AFTER 12Z SAT. WITH ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS REMAINING SATURATED OVER
THE LOWER AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA COMBINED WITH MORE
HEAVY RAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE DAY...WE WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR NOW FOR AREAS MENTIONED
ABOVE. AT THE SFC COOLER DRYER AIR TO THE NE WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE
DOWN ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SAT MORNING LEADING TO A
WEAK THERMAL/MOISTURE BOUNDARY NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST BY EARLY SAT
MORNING. THIS BOUNDARY COULD BECOME THE FOCUS FOR MORE HEAVY RAIN
MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF THUNDERSTORMS LATER IN THE WEEKEND AS IT
RETREATS NORTH AND DISSIPATES. AS FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY THE BEST
INSTABILITY LOOKS TO OCCUR OVER THE LOWER HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY WITH THE BEST VERTICAL SHEAR ALSO OCCURRING NEAR THE COAST
EARLY THIS MORNING...WEAKENING SIGNIFICANTLY AND SHIFTING NORTHWARD
OVER CENTRAL PARTS OF THE CWA BY MIDDAY. ALOFT WINDS BEGIN TO VEER
LATER THIS MORNING WITH 850 WINDS AT 20 TO 25 KTS GENERALLY FROM THE
WSW BY EARLY AFTERNOON. AS FOR TEMPS WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE COOLER
MAV GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY DUE TO CLOUDS AND RAIN AND THE WARMER
MAV GUIDANCE OVERNIGHT DUE MOSTLY TO LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY SAT MORNING. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S OVER EXTREME NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE CWFA AND THE MID TO
UPPER 70S FOR MOST OTHER AREAS. TONIGHT THE LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S FOR INLAND AREAS AND THE UPPER 60S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. 32/EE

(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...ON SATURDAY WE EXPECT A WARM FRONT TO
MOVE ASHORE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. AVERAGE PRECIPITABLE WATER  WILL BE CLOSE TO 2.0 INCHES
WHICH IS CLOSER TO SUMMER NUMBERS THAN SPRING NUMBERS. OUTPUT OF
GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT INDICATES A NEGATIVELY TILTED 500 MB TROUGH
WHICH WILL BE SHORT IN LENGTH...WILL MOVE INTO OUR REGION AND AS A
RESULT THE LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILE WILL SHOW A SHARP CLOCKWISE TURN
THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO 850 MB. WE ARE SHOWING 200 TO 300 MB
HELICITY IN THE VICINITY OF 200 TO 300 M^2/S^2 SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WHICH IS QUITE WORRISOME DESPITE FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR SATURDAY
WHOSE TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT PROFILES INDICATE MOIST ADIABATIC
RENDERING CAPES AROUND OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 1000. AT THIS POINT WE
BELIEVE WE COULD STILL SEE LOW TOPPED SUPERCELLS WITH THE REALIZATION
THAT THE CAPE FORECAST COULD CHANGE CAUSING THE DEPTH OF SUCH
CONVECTION TO INCREASE. WE ARE THINKING THE HIGHEST RISK WILL BE WEST
OF I-65 FROM LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY EVENING.
AS THE ACTIVITY MOVES EAST TOWARD SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA AND THE
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE DURING THE NIGHT...THE RISK WILL DIMINISH
SLIGHTLY. AS WELL THESE STORMS SHOULD BE HEAVY RAINMAKERS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING ONE OR MORE INCHES OF RAINFALL IN LESS THAN AN HOUR
THEREFORE WE ARE AT RISK OF FLASH FLOODING.

BY SUNDAY THE AXIS OF MAXIMUM MOISTURE TRANSPORT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
BE FURTHER TO OUR EAST BUT THAT 500 MB TROUGH AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL KEEP THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ELEVATED
ALBEIT LIKELY WITH LESS RAINFALL. 77/BD

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)  MONDAY MORNING THROUGH
AFTERNOON THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION BRINGING WITH IT A DRY WEST TO NORTHWEST  WIND AND FINALLY AN
END TO WET CONDITIONS. OUR NEIGHBORS AND US CONCUR THAT LOWS COULD
DROP BELOW BLENDED GUIDANCE TO THE UPPER 50S IN OUR FAR NORTHWEST
REGIONS AND WE ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
INTRODUCE AN ENVIRONMENT OF SUBSIDENCE KEEPING DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THURSDAY. 77/BD

.MARINE...A LIGHT ONSHORE WIND TODAY WILL SHIFT EAST TO NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SAT MORNING AS A WEAK SURGE OF COOLER/DRIER AIR
MOVES IN THE FROM THE NORTHEAST LATE TODAY THROUGH EARLY SAT. A
MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATE SAT
INTO SUN AND CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND AS THE
UPPER TROF OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY EVENTUALLY SHIFTS
NORTHEAST. A SFC COLD FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE SOUTH OVER THE
MARINE AREA BY EARLY TUE LEADING TO A MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
THROUGH MID WEEK...THEN SHIFTING MOSTLY SOUTHEAST LATER IN THE WEEK
AS A SFC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES REESTABLISHED ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD AND EASTERN GULF. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY
SUN. 32/EE

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      79  65  76  69  78 /  80  30  80  70  70
PENSACOLA   77  66  77  70  76 /  80  30  80  60  70
DESTIN      78  69  77  70  76 /  70  30  70  60  70
EVERGREEN   70  63  76  68  77 /  80  30  80  60  70
WAYNESBORO  76  62  75  66  79 /  90  30  80  70  60
CAMDEN      69  63  75  67  79 /  90  30  70  70  70
CRESTVIEW   74  63  78  68  77 /  80  30  70  70  70

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR CHOCTAW-CLARKE-
     ESCAMBIA-LOWER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-UPPER
     MOBILE-WASHINGTON.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR LOWER BALDWIN-
     LOWER MOBILE.

FL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR COASTAL ESCAMBIA-
     COASTAL OKALOOSA-COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND ESCAMBIA-INLAND
     OKALOOSA-INLAND SANTA ROSA.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL
     ESCAMBIA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-COASTAL SANTA ROSA.

MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR GEORGE-GREENE-PERRY-
     STONE-WAYNE.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM DESTIN
     TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL
     TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM.


&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 171736 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM AND AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1230 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...TWEAKING NEEDED TO CURRENT PACKAGE...MAINLY FOR THE
COASTAL AND MARINE PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST. A SURFACE TROUGH
DEVELOPED OVER MS-NW FL PANHANDLE COASTAL WATERS THIS
MORN...BRINGING VERY STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW AND ROUGH SEAS AND SURF.
TEMPS/POPS GENERAL ON TRACK...WITH WIDESPREAD SHRA OVER THE FA
ATTM. UPDATES TRANSMITTED.

/16

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z ISSUANCE...PESKY OVER-RUNNING SHRA WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT...
WITH MVFR CIGS/VISBYS DROPPING INTO IFR LEVELS OVERNIGHT. MORE SHRA
ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE AREA SATURDAY...WITH STRONGER STORMS
MOVING OVER THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON.

/16

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...STILL A BIT OF A CHALLENGE WHERE
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR LATER TODAY. CURRENTLY
RADAR LOOPS CONTINUE SHOW HEAVY RAIN OVER THE NW QUAD OF THE CWFA
WITH STORM TOTALS OF 7 TO 8 IN LOCALLY OVER LOWER PARTS OF CHOCTAW
CO IN SW AL RESULTING IN SEVERAL ROAD AND BUSINESSES CLOSED IN AND
THE AROUND THE TOWN OF GILBERTOWN AL. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS
THE HEAVIEST RAIN TO OCCUR OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
CWFA THIS MORNING THEN SHIFTING EAST...MOSTLY INLAND...AND GRADUALLY
WEAKENING IN INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AS A SHORT
LIVED UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL GULF REGION LATE
THIS EVENING...WITH RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING EAST OF THE CWFA SHORTLY
AFTER 12Z SAT. WITH ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS REMAINING SATURATED OVER
THE LOWER AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA COMBINED WITH MORE
HEAVY RAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE DAY...WE WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR NOW FOR AREAS MENTIONED
ABOVE. AT THE SFC COOLER DRYER AIR TO THE NE WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE
DOWN ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SAT MORNING LEADING TO A
WEAK THERMAL/MOISTURE BOUNDARY NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST BY EARLY SAT
MORNING. THIS BOUNDARY COULD BECOME THE FOCUS FOR MORE HEAVY RAIN
MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF THUNDERSTORMS LATER IN THE WEEKEND AS IT
RETREATS NORTH AND DISSIPATES. AS FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY THE BEST
INSTABILITY LOOKS TO OCCUR OVER THE LOWER HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY WITH THE BEST VERTICAL SHEAR ALSO OCCURRING NEAR THE COAST
EARLY THIS MORNING...WEAKENING SIGNIFICANTLY AND SHIFTING NORTHWARD
OVER CENTRAL PARTS OF THE CWA BY MIDDAY. ALOFT WINDS BEGIN TO VEER
LATER THIS MORNING WITH 850 WINDS AT 20 TO 25 KTS GENERALLY FROM THE
WSW BY EARLY AFTERNOON. AS FOR TEMPS WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE COOLER
MAV GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY DUE TO CLOUDS AND RAIN AND THE WARMER
MAV GUIDANCE OVERNIGHT DUE MOSTLY TO LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY SAT MORNING. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S OVER EXTREME NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE CWFA AND THE MID TO
UPPER 70S FOR MOST OTHER AREAS. TONIGHT THE LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S FOR INLAND AREAS AND THE UPPER 60S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. 32/EE

(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...ON SATURDAY WE EXPECT A WARM FRONT TO
MOVE ASHORE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. AVERAGE PRECIPITABLE WATER  WILL BE CLOSE TO 2.0 INCHES
WHICH IS CLOSER TO SUMMER NUMBERS THAN SPRING NUMBERS. OUTPUT OF
GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT INDICATES A NEGATIVELY TILTED 500 MB TROUGH
WHICH WILL BE SHORT IN LENGTH...WILL MOVE INTO OUR REGION AND AS A
RESULT THE LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILE WILL SHOW A SHARP CLOCKWISE TURN
THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO 850 MB. WE ARE SHOWING 200 TO 300 MB
HELICITY IN THE VICINITY OF 200 TO 300 M^2/S^2 SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WHICH IS QUITE WORRISOME DESPITE FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR SATURDAY
WHOSE TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT PROFILES INDICATE MOIST ADIABATIC
RENDERING CAPES AROUND OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 1000. AT THIS POINT WE
BELIEVE WE COULD STILL SEE LOW TOPPED SUPERCELLS WITH THE REALIZATION
THAT THE CAPE FORECAST COULD CHANGE CAUSING THE DEPTH OF SUCH
CONVECTION TO INCREASE. WE ARE THINKING THE HIGHEST RISK WILL BE WEST
OF I-65 FROM LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY EVENING.
AS THE ACTIVITY MOVES EAST TOWARD SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA AND THE
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE DURING THE NIGHT...THE RISK WILL DIMINISH
SLIGHTLY. AS WELL THESE STORMS SHOULD BE HEAVY RAINMAKERS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING ONE OR MORE INCHES OF RAINFALL IN LESS THAN AN HOUR
THEREFORE WE ARE AT RISK OF FLASH FLOODING.

BY SUNDAY THE AXIS OF MAXIMUM MOISTURE TRANSPORT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
BE FURTHER TO OUR EAST BUT THAT 500 MB TROUGH AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL KEEP THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ELEVATED
ALBEIT LIKELY WITH LESS RAINFALL. 77/BD

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)  MONDAY MORNING THROUGH
AFTERNOON THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION BRINGING WITH IT A DRY WEST TO NORTHWEST  WIND AND FINALLY AN
END TO WET CONDITIONS. OUR NEIGHBORS AND US CONCUR THAT LOWS COULD
DROP BELOW BLENDED GUIDANCE TO THE UPPER 50S IN OUR FAR NORTHWEST
REGIONS AND WE ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
INTRODUCE AN ENVIRONMENT OF SUBSIDENCE KEEPING DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THURSDAY. 77/BD

.MARINE...A LIGHT ONSHORE WIND TODAY WILL SHIFT EAST TO NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SAT MORNING AS A WEAK SURGE OF COOLER/DRIER AIR
MOVES IN THE FROM THE NORTHEAST LATE TODAY THROUGH EARLY SAT. A
MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATE SAT
INTO SUN AND CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND AS THE
UPPER TROF OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY EVENTUALLY SHIFTS
NORTHEAST. A SFC COLD FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE SOUTH OVER THE
MARINE AREA BY EARLY TUE LEADING TO A MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
THROUGH MID WEEK...THEN SHIFTING MOSTLY SOUTHEAST LATER IN THE WEEK
AS A SFC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES REESTABLISHED ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD AND EASTERN GULF. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY
SUN. 32/EE

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      79  65  76  69  78 /  80  30  80  70  70
PENSACOLA   77  66  77  70  76 /  80  30  80  60  70
DESTIN      78  69  77  70  76 /  70  30  70  60  70
EVERGREEN   70  63  76  68  77 /  80  30  80  60  70
WAYNESBORO  76  62  75  66  79 /  90  30  80  70  60
CAMDEN      69  63  75  67  79 /  90  30  70  70  70
CRESTVIEW   74  63  78  68  77 /  80  30  70  70  70

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR CHOCTAW-CLARKE-
     ESCAMBIA-LOWER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-UPPER
     MOBILE-WASHINGTON.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR LOWER BALDWIN-
     LOWER MOBILE.

FL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR COASTAL ESCAMBIA-
     COASTAL OKALOOSA-COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND ESCAMBIA-INLAND
     OKALOOSA-INLAND SANTA ROSA.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL
     ESCAMBIA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-COASTAL SANTA ROSA.

MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR GEORGE-GREENE-PERRY-
     STONE-WAYNE.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM DESTIN
     TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL
     TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM.


&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMOB 171736 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM AND AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1230 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...TWEAKING NEEDED TO CURRENT PACKAGE...MAINLY FOR THE
COASTAL AND MARINE PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST. A SURFACE TROUGH
DEVELOPED OVER MS-NW FL PANHANDLE COASTAL WATERS THIS
MORN...BRINGING VERY STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW AND ROUGH SEAS AND SURF.
TEMPS/POPS GENERAL ON TRACK...WITH WIDESPREAD SHRA OVER THE FA
ATTM. UPDATES TRANSMITTED.

/16

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z ISSUANCE...PESKY OVER-RUNNING SHRA WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT...
WITH MVFR CIGS/VISBYS DROPPING INTO IFR LEVELS OVERNIGHT. MORE SHRA
ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE AREA SATURDAY...WITH STRONGER STORMS
MOVING OVER THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON.

/16

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...STILL A BIT OF A CHALLENGE WHERE
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR LATER TODAY. CURRENTLY
RADAR LOOPS CONTINUE SHOW HEAVY RAIN OVER THE NW QUAD OF THE CWFA
WITH STORM TOTALS OF 7 TO 8 IN LOCALLY OVER LOWER PARTS OF CHOCTAW
CO IN SW AL RESULTING IN SEVERAL ROAD AND BUSINESSES CLOSED IN AND
THE AROUND THE TOWN OF GILBERTOWN AL. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS
THE HEAVIEST RAIN TO OCCUR OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
CWFA THIS MORNING THEN SHIFTING EAST...MOSTLY INLAND...AND GRADUALLY
WEAKENING IN INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AS A SHORT
LIVED UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL GULF REGION LATE
THIS EVENING...WITH RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING EAST OF THE CWFA SHORTLY
AFTER 12Z SAT. WITH ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS REMAINING SATURATED OVER
THE LOWER AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA COMBINED WITH MORE
HEAVY RAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE DAY...WE WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR NOW FOR AREAS MENTIONED
ABOVE. AT THE SFC COOLER DRYER AIR TO THE NE WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE
DOWN ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SAT MORNING LEADING TO A
WEAK THERMAL/MOISTURE BOUNDARY NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST BY EARLY SAT
MORNING. THIS BOUNDARY COULD BECOME THE FOCUS FOR MORE HEAVY RAIN
MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF THUNDERSTORMS LATER IN THE WEEKEND AS IT
RETREATS NORTH AND DISSIPATES. AS FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY THE BEST
INSTABILITY LOOKS TO OCCUR OVER THE LOWER HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY WITH THE BEST VERTICAL SHEAR ALSO OCCURRING NEAR THE COAST
EARLY THIS MORNING...WEAKENING SIGNIFICANTLY AND SHIFTING NORTHWARD
OVER CENTRAL PARTS OF THE CWA BY MIDDAY. ALOFT WINDS BEGIN TO VEER
LATER THIS MORNING WITH 850 WINDS AT 20 TO 25 KTS GENERALLY FROM THE
WSW BY EARLY AFTERNOON. AS FOR TEMPS WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE COOLER
MAV GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY DUE TO CLOUDS AND RAIN AND THE WARMER
MAV GUIDANCE OVERNIGHT DUE MOSTLY TO LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY SAT MORNING. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S OVER EXTREME NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE CWFA AND THE MID TO
UPPER 70S FOR MOST OTHER AREAS. TONIGHT THE LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S FOR INLAND AREAS AND THE UPPER 60S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. 32/EE

(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...ON SATURDAY WE EXPECT A WARM FRONT TO
MOVE ASHORE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. AVERAGE PRECIPITABLE WATER  WILL BE CLOSE TO 2.0 INCHES
WHICH IS CLOSER TO SUMMER NUMBERS THAN SPRING NUMBERS. OUTPUT OF
GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT INDICATES A NEGATIVELY TILTED 500 MB TROUGH
WHICH WILL BE SHORT IN LENGTH...WILL MOVE INTO OUR REGION AND AS A
RESULT THE LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILE WILL SHOW A SHARP CLOCKWISE TURN
THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO 850 MB. WE ARE SHOWING 200 TO 300 MB
HELICITY IN THE VICINITY OF 200 TO 300 M^2/S^2 SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WHICH IS QUITE WORRISOME DESPITE FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR SATURDAY
WHOSE TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT PROFILES INDICATE MOIST ADIABATIC
RENDERING CAPES AROUND OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 1000. AT THIS POINT WE
BELIEVE WE COULD STILL SEE LOW TOPPED SUPERCELLS WITH THE REALIZATION
THAT THE CAPE FORECAST COULD CHANGE CAUSING THE DEPTH OF SUCH
CONVECTION TO INCREASE. WE ARE THINKING THE HIGHEST RISK WILL BE WEST
OF I-65 FROM LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY EVENING.
AS THE ACTIVITY MOVES EAST TOWARD SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA AND THE
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE DURING THE NIGHT...THE RISK WILL DIMINISH
SLIGHTLY. AS WELL THESE STORMS SHOULD BE HEAVY RAINMAKERS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING ONE OR MORE INCHES OF RAINFALL IN LESS THAN AN HOUR
THEREFORE WE ARE AT RISK OF FLASH FLOODING.

BY SUNDAY THE AXIS OF MAXIMUM MOISTURE TRANSPORT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
BE FURTHER TO OUR EAST BUT THAT 500 MB TROUGH AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL KEEP THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ELEVATED
ALBEIT LIKELY WITH LESS RAINFALL. 77/BD

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)  MONDAY MORNING THROUGH
AFTERNOON THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION BRINGING WITH IT A DRY WEST TO NORTHWEST  WIND AND FINALLY AN
END TO WET CONDITIONS. OUR NEIGHBORS AND US CONCUR THAT LOWS COULD
DROP BELOW BLENDED GUIDANCE TO THE UPPER 50S IN OUR FAR NORTHWEST
REGIONS AND WE ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
INTRODUCE AN ENVIRONMENT OF SUBSIDENCE KEEPING DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THURSDAY. 77/BD

.MARINE...A LIGHT ONSHORE WIND TODAY WILL SHIFT EAST TO NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SAT MORNING AS A WEAK SURGE OF COOLER/DRIER AIR
MOVES IN THE FROM THE NORTHEAST LATE TODAY THROUGH EARLY SAT. A
MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATE SAT
INTO SUN AND CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND AS THE
UPPER TROF OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY EVENTUALLY SHIFTS
NORTHEAST. A SFC COLD FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE SOUTH OVER THE
MARINE AREA BY EARLY TUE LEADING TO A MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
THROUGH MID WEEK...THEN SHIFTING MOSTLY SOUTHEAST LATER IN THE WEEK
AS A SFC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES REESTABLISHED ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD AND EASTERN GULF. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY
SUN. 32/EE

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      79  65  76  69  78 /  80  30  80  70  70
PENSACOLA   77  66  77  70  76 /  80  30  80  60  70
DESTIN      78  69  77  70  76 /  70  30  70  60  70
EVERGREEN   70  63  76  68  77 /  80  30  80  60  70
WAYNESBORO  76  62  75  66  79 /  90  30  80  70  60
CAMDEN      69  63  75  67  79 /  90  30  70  70  70
CRESTVIEW   74  63  78  68  77 /  80  30  70  70  70

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR CHOCTAW-CLARKE-
     ESCAMBIA-LOWER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-UPPER
     MOBILE-WASHINGTON.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR LOWER BALDWIN-
     LOWER MOBILE.

FL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR COASTAL ESCAMBIA-
     COASTAL OKALOOSA-COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND ESCAMBIA-INLAND
     OKALOOSA-INLAND SANTA ROSA.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL
     ESCAMBIA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-COASTAL SANTA ROSA.

MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR GEORGE-GREENE-PERRY-
     STONE-WAYNE.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM DESTIN
     TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL
     TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM.


&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 171736 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM AND AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1230 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...TWEAKING NEEDED TO CURRENT PACKAGE...MAINLY FOR THE
COASTAL AND MARINE PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST. A SURFACE TROUGH
DEVELOPED OVER MS-NW FL PANHANDLE COASTAL WATERS THIS
MORN...BRINGING VERY STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW AND ROUGH SEAS AND SURF.
TEMPS/POPS GENERAL ON TRACK...WITH WIDESPREAD SHRA OVER THE FA
ATTM. UPDATES TRANSMITTED.

/16

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z ISSUANCE...PESKY OVER-RUNNING SHRA WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT...
WITH MVFR CIGS/VISBYS DROPPING INTO IFR LEVELS OVERNIGHT. MORE SHRA
ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE AREA SATURDAY...WITH STRONGER STORMS
MOVING OVER THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON.

/16

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...STILL A BIT OF A CHALLENGE WHERE
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR LATER TODAY. CURRENTLY
RADAR LOOPS CONTINUE SHOW HEAVY RAIN OVER THE NW QUAD OF THE CWFA
WITH STORM TOTALS OF 7 TO 8 IN LOCALLY OVER LOWER PARTS OF CHOCTAW
CO IN SW AL RESULTING IN SEVERAL ROAD AND BUSINESSES CLOSED IN AND
THE AROUND THE TOWN OF GILBERTOWN AL. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS
THE HEAVIEST RAIN TO OCCUR OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
CWFA THIS MORNING THEN SHIFTING EAST...MOSTLY INLAND...AND GRADUALLY
WEAKENING IN INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AS A SHORT
LIVED UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL GULF REGION LATE
THIS EVENING...WITH RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING EAST OF THE CWFA SHORTLY
AFTER 12Z SAT. WITH ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS REMAINING SATURATED OVER
THE LOWER AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA COMBINED WITH MORE
HEAVY RAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE DAY...WE WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR NOW FOR AREAS MENTIONED
ABOVE. AT THE SFC COOLER DRYER AIR TO THE NE WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE
DOWN ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SAT MORNING LEADING TO A
WEAK THERMAL/MOISTURE BOUNDARY NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST BY EARLY SAT
MORNING. THIS BOUNDARY COULD BECOME THE FOCUS FOR MORE HEAVY RAIN
MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF THUNDERSTORMS LATER IN THE WEEKEND AS IT
RETREATS NORTH AND DISSIPATES. AS FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY THE BEST
INSTABILITY LOOKS TO OCCUR OVER THE LOWER HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY WITH THE BEST VERTICAL SHEAR ALSO OCCURRING NEAR THE COAST
EARLY THIS MORNING...WEAKENING SIGNIFICANTLY AND SHIFTING NORTHWARD
OVER CENTRAL PARTS OF THE CWA BY MIDDAY. ALOFT WINDS BEGIN TO VEER
LATER THIS MORNING WITH 850 WINDS AT 20 TO 25 KTS GENERALLY FROM THE
WSW BY EARLY AFTERNOON. AS FOR TEMPS WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE COOLER
MAV GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY DUE TO CLOUDS AND RAIN AND THE WARMER
MAV GUIDANCE OVERNIGHT DUE MOSTLY TO LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY SAT MORNING. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S OVER EXTREME NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE CWFA AND THE MID TO
UPPER 70S FOR MOST OTHER AREAS. TONIGHT THE LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S FOR INLAND AREAS AND THE UPPER 60S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. 32/EE

(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...ON SATURDAY WE EXPECT A WARM FRONT TO
MOVE ASHORE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. AVERAGE PRECIPITABLE WATER  WILL BE CLOSE TO 2.0 INCHES
WHICH IS CLOSER TO SUMMER NUMBERS THAN SPRING NUMBERS. OUTPUT OF
GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT INDICATES A NEGATIVELY TILTED 500 MB TROUGH
WHICH WILL BE SHORT IN LENGTH...WILL MOVE INTO OUR REGION AND AS A
RESULT THE LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILE WILL SHOW A SHARP CLOCKWISE TURN
THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO 850 MB. WE ARE SHOWING 200 TO 300 MB
HELICITY IN THE VICINITY OF 200 TO 300 M^2/S^2 SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WHICH IS QUITE WORRISOME DESPITE FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR SATURDAY
WHOSE TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT PROFILES INDICATE MOIST ADIABATIC
RENDERING CAPES AROUND OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 1000. AT THIS POINT WE
BELIEVE WE COULD STILL SEE LOW TOPPED SUPERCELLS WITH THE REALIZATION
THAT THE CAPE FORECAST COULD CHANGE CAUSING THE DEPTH OF SUCH
CONVECTION TO INCREASE. WE ARE THINKING THE HIGHEST RISK WILL BE WEST
OF I-65 FROM LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY EVENING.
AS THE ACTIVITY MOVES EAST TOWARD SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA AND THE
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE DURING THE NIGHT...THE RISK WILL DIMINISH
SLIGHTLY. AS WELL THESE STORMS SHOULD BE HEAVY RAINMAKERS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING ONE OR MORE INCHES OF RAINFALL IN LESS THAN AN HOUR
THEREFORE WE ARE AT RISK OF FLASH FLOODING.

BY SUNDAY THE AXIS OF MAXIMUM MOISTURE TRANSPORT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
BE FURTHER TO OUR EAST BUT THAT 500 MB TROUGH AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL KEEP THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ELEVATED
ALBEIT LIKELY WITH LESS RAINFALL. 77/BD

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)  MONDAY MORNING THROUGH
AFTERNOON THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION BRINGING WITH IT A DRY WEST TO NORTHWEST  WIND AND FINALLY AN
END TO WET CONDITIONS. OUR NEIGHBORS AND US CONCUR THAT LOWS COULD
DROP BELOW BLENDED GUIDANCE TO THE UPPER 50S IN OUR FAR NORTHWEST
REGIONS AND WE ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
INTRODUCE AN ENVIRONMENT OF SUBSIDENCE KEEPING DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THURSDAY. 77/BD

.MARINE...A LIGHT ONSHORE WIND TODAY WILL SHIFT EAST TO NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SAT MORNING AS A WEAK SURGE OF COOLER/DRIER AIR
MOVES IN THE FROM THE NORTHEAST LATE TODAY THROUGH EARLY SAT. A
MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATE SAT
INTO SUN AND CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND AS THE
UPPER TROF OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY EVENTUALLY SHIFTS
NORTHEAST. A SFC COLD FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE SOUTH OVER THE
MARINE AREA BY EARLY TUE LEADING TO A MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
THROUGH MID WEEK...THEN SHIFTING MOSTLY SOUTHEAST LATER IN THE WEEK
AS A SFC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES REESTABLISHED ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD AND EASTERN GULF. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY
SUN. 32/EE

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      79  65  76  69  78 /  80  30  80  70  70
PENSACOLA   77  66  77  70  76 /  80  30  80  60  70
DESTIN      78  69  77  70  76 /  70  30  70  60  70
EVERGREEN   70  63  76  68  77 /  80  30  80  60  70
WAYNESBORO  76  62  75  66  79 /  90  30  80  70  60
CAMDEN      69  63  75  67  79 /  90  30  70  70  70
CRESTVIEW   74  63  78  68  77 /  80  30  70  70  70

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR CHOCTAW-CLARKE-
     ESCAMBIA-LOWER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-UPPER
     MOBILE-WASHINGTON.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR LOWER BALDWIN-
     LOWER MOBILE.

FL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR COASTAL ESCAMBIA-
     COASTAL OKALOOSA-COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND ESCAMBIA-INLAND
     OKALOOSA-INLAND SANTA ROSA.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL
     ESCAMBIA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-COASTAL SANTA ROSA.

MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR GEORGE-GREENE-PERRY-
     STONE-WAYNE.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM DESTIN
     TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL
     TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM.


&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMOB 170936
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
436 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...STILL A BIT OF A CHALLENGE WHERE
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR LATER TODAY. CURRENTLY RADAR
LOOPS CONTINUE SHOW HEAVY RAIN OVER THE NW QUAD OF THE CWFA WITH
STORM TOTALS OF 7 TO 8 IN LOCALLY OVER LOWER PARTS OF CHOCTAW CO IN
SW AL RESULTING IN SEVERAL ROAD AND BUSINESSES CLOSED IN AND THE
AROUND THE TOWN OF GILBERTOWN AL. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS THE
HEAVIEST RAIN TO OCCUR OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA
THIS MORNING THEN SHIFTING EAST...MOSTLY INLAND...AND GRADUALLY
WEAKENING IN INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AS A SHORT
LIVED UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL GULF REGION LATE
THIS EVENING...WITH RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING EAST OF THE CWFA SHORTLY
AFTER 12Z SAT. WITH ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS REMAINING SATURATED OVER
THE LOWER AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA COMBINED WITH MORE
HEAVY RAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE DAY...WE WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR NOW FOR AREAS MENTIONED
ABOVE. AT THE SFC COOLER DRYER AIR TO THE NE WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE
DOWN ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SAT MORNING LEADING TO A
WEAK THERMAL/MOISTURE BOUNDARY NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST BY EARLY SAT
MORNING. THIS BOUNDARY COULD BECOME THE FOCUS FOR MORE HEAVY RAIN
MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF THUNDERSTORMS LATER IN THE WEEKEND AS IT
RETREATS NORTH AND DISSIPATES. AS FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY THE BEST
INSTABILITY LOOKS TO OCCUR OVER THE LOWER HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY WITH THE BEST VERTICAL SHEAR ALSO OCCURRING NEAR THE COAST
EARLY THIS MORNING...WEAKENING SIGNIFICANTLY AND SHIFTING NORTHWARD
OVER CENTRAL PARTS OF THE CWA BY MIDDAY. ALOFT WINDS BEGIN TO VEER
LATER THIS MORNING WITH 850 WINDS AT 20 TO 25 KTS GENERALLY FROM THE
WSW BY EARLY AFTERNOON. AS FOR TEMPS WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE COOLER MAV
GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY DUE TO CLOUDS AND RAIN AND THE WARMER MAV
GUIDANCE OVERNIGHT DUE MOSTLY TO LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY SAT MORNING. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S OVER EXTREME NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE CWFA AND THE MID TO UPPER 70S
FOR MOST OTHER AREAS. TONIGHT THE LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 60S FOR INLAND AREAS AND THE UPPER 60S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST. 32/EE

(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...ON SATURDAY WE EXPECT A WARM FRONT TO
MOVE ASHORE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. AVERAGE PRECIPITABLE WATER  WILL BE CLOSE TO 2.0 INCHES
WHICH IS CLOSER TO SUMMER NUMBERS THAN SPRING NUMBERS. OUTPUT OF
GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT INDICATES A NEGATIVELY TILTED 500 MB TROUGH
WHICH WILL BE SHORT IN LENGTH...WILL MOVE INTO OUR REGION AND AS A
RESULT THE LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILE WILL SHOW A SHARP CLOCKWISE TURN
THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO 850 MB. WE ARE SHOWING 200 TO 300 MB
HELICITY IN THE VICINITY OF 200 TO 300 M^2/S^2 SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WHICH IS QUITE WORRISOME DESPITE FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR SATURDAY
WHOSE TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT PROFILES INDICATE MOIST ADIABATIC
RENDERING CAPES AROUND OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 1000. AT THIS POINT WE
BELIEVE WE COULD STILL SEE LOW TOPPED SUPERCELLS WITH THE REALIZATION
THAT THE CAPE FORECAST COULD CHANGE CAUSING THE DEPTH OF SUCH
CONVECTION TO INCREASE. WE ARE THINKING THE HIGHEST RISK WILL BE WEST
OF I-65 FROM LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY EVENING.
AS THE ACTIVITY MOVES EAST TOWARD SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA AND THE
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE DURING THE NIGHT...THE RISK WILL DIMINISH
SLIGHTLY. AS WELL THESE STORMS SHOULD BE HEAVY RAINMAKERS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING ONE OR MORE INCHES OF RAINFALL IN LESS THAN AN HOUR
THEREFORE WE ARE AT RISK OF FLASH FLOODING.

BY SUNDAY THE AXIS OF MAXIMUM MOISTURE TRANSPORT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
BE FURTHER TO OUR EAST BUT THAT 500 MB TROUGH AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL KEEP THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ELEVATED
ALBEIT LIKELY WITH LESS RAINFALL. 77/BD

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)  MONDAY MORNING THROUGH
AFTERNOON THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION BRINGING WITH IT A DRY WEST TO NORTHWEST  WIND AND FINALLY AN
END TO WET CONDITIONS. OUR NEIGHBORS AND US CONCUR THAT LOWS COULD
DROP BELOW BLENDED GUIDANCE TO THE UPPER 50S IN OUR FAR NORTHWEST
REGIONS AND WE ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
INTRODUCE AN ENVIRONMENT OF SUBSIDENCE KEEPING DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THURSDAY. 77/BD

.MARINE...A LIGHT ONSHORE WIND TODAY WILL SHIFT EAST TO NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SAT MORNING AS A WEAK SURGE OF COOLER/DRIER AIR
MOVES IN THE FROM THE NORTHEAST LATE TODAY THROUGH EARLY SAT. A
MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATE SAT
INTO SUN AND CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND AS THE
UPPER TROF OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY EVENTUALLY SHIFTS
NORTHEAST. A SFC COLD FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE SOUTH OVER THE
MARINE AREA BY EARLY TUE LEADING TO A MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
THROUGH MID WEEK...THEN SHIFTING MOSTLY SOUTHEAST LATER IN THE WEEK
AS A SFC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES REESTABLISHED ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD AND EASTERN GULF. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY
SUN. 32/EE

.AVIATION...
17.12Z ISSUANCE...MVFR TO IFR CIGS THROUGH 18.12Z. THE LOWER
CEILINGS WILL BE MOSTLY IN AND AROUND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOWER CEILINGS
TONIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF LOW STRATUS IN RESPONSE TO A
WEAK SURGE OF COOLER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE NE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
SAT MORNING. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT 8 TO 12 KNOTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS THROUGH THE MORNING SHIFTING WEST TO NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING THEN NORTH TO NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY SAT MORNING. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      79  65  76  69  78 /  80  30  80  70  70
PENSACOLA   77  66  77  70  76 /  80  30  80  60  70
DESTIN      78  69  77  70  76 /  70  30  70  60  70
EVERGREEN   70  63  76  68  77 /  80  30  80  60  70
WAYNESBORO  76  62  75  66  79 /  90  30  80  70  60
CAMDEN      69  63  75  67  79 /  90  30  70  70  70
CRESTVIEW   74  63  78  68  77 /  80  30  70  70  70

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR CHOCTAW-CLARKE-
     ESCAMBIA-LOWER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-UPPER
     MOBILE-WASHINGTON.

FL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR COASTAL ESCAMBIA-
     COASTAL OKALOOSA-COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND ESCAMBIA-INLAND
     OKALOOSA-INLAND SANTA ROSA.

MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR GEORGE-GREENE-PERRY-
     STONE-WAYNE.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 170936
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
436 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...STILL A BIT OF A CHALLENGE WHERE
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR LATER TODAY. CURRENTLY RADAR
LOOPS CONTINUE SHOW HEAVY RAIN OVER THE NW QUAD OF THE CWFA WITH
STORM TOTALS OF 7 TO 8 IN LOCALLY OVER LOWER PARTS OF CHOCTAW CO IN
SW AL RESULTING IN SEVERAL ROAD AND BUSINESSES CLOSED IN AND THE
AROUND THE TOWN OF GILBERTOWN AL. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS THE
HEAVIEST RAIN TO OCCUR OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA
THIS MORNING THEN SHIFTING EAST...MOSTLY INLAND...AND GRADUALLY
WEAKENING IN INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AS A SHORT
LIVED UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL GULF REGION LATE
THIS EVENING...WITH RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING EAST OF THE CWFA SHORTLY
AFTER 12Z SAT. WITH ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS REMAINING SATURATED OVER
THE LOWER AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA COMBINED WITH MORE
HEAVY RAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE DAY...WE WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR NOW FOR AREAS MENTIONED
ABOVE. AT THE SFC COOLER DRYER AIR TO THE NE WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE
DOWN ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SAT MORNING LEADING TO A
WEAK THERMAL/MOISTURE BOUNDARY NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST BY EARLY SAT
MORNING. THIS BOUNDARY COULD BECOME THE FOCUS FOR MORE HEAVY RAIN
MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF THUNDERSTORMS LATER IN THE WEEKEND AS IT
RETREATS NORTH AND DISSIPATES. AS FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY THE BEST
INSTABILITY LOOKS TO OCCUR OVER THE LOWER HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY WITH THE BEST VERTICAL SHEAR ALSO OCCURRING NEAR THE COAST
EARLY THIS MORNING...WEAKENING SIGNIFICANTLY AND SHIFTING NORTHWARD
OVER CENTRAL PARTS OF THE CWA BY MIDDAY. ALOFT WINDS BEGIN TO VEER
LATER THIS MORNING WITH 850 WINDS AT 20 TO 25 KTS GENERALLY FROM THE
WSW BY EARLY AFTERNOON. AS FOR TEMPS WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE COOLER MAV
GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY DUE TO CLOUDS AND RAIN AND THE WARMER MAV
GUIDANCE OVERNIGHT DUE MOSTLY TO LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY SAT MORNING. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S OVER EXTREME NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE CWFA AND THE MID TO UPPER 70S
FOR MOST OTHER AREAS. TONIGHT THE LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 60S FOR INLAND AREAS AND THE UPPER 60S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST. 32/EE

(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...ON SATURDAY WE EXPECT A WARM FRONT TO
MOVE ASHORE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. AVERAGE PRECIPITABLE WATER  WILL BE CLOSE TO 2.0 INCHES
WHICH IS CLOSER TO SUMMER NUMBERS THAN SPRING NUMBERS. OUTPUT OF
GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT INDICATES A NEGATIVELY TILTED 500 MB TROUGH
WHICH WILL BE SHORT IN LENGTH...WILL MOVE INTO OUR REGION AND AS A
RESULT THE LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILE WILL SHOW A SHARP CLOCKWISE TURN
THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO 850 MB. WE ARE SHOWING 200 TO 300 MB
HELICITY IN THE VICINITY OF 200 TO 300 M^2/S^2 SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WHICH IS QUITE WORRISOME DESPITE FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR SATURDAY
WHOSE TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT PROFILES INDICATE MOIST ADIABATIC
RENDERING CAPES AROUND OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 1000. AT THIS POINT WE
BELIEVE WE COULD STILL SEE LOW TOPPED SUPERCELLS WITH THE REALIZATION
THAT THE CAPE FORECAST COULD CHANGE CAUSING THE DEPTH OF SUCH
CONVECTION TO INCREASE. WE ARE THINKING THE HIGHEST RISK WILL BE WEST
OF I-65 FROM LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY EVENING.
AS THE ACTIVITY MOVES EAST TOWARD SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA AND THE
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE DURING THE NIGHT...THE RISK WILL DIMINISH
SLIGHTLY. AS WELL THESE STORMS SHOULD BE HEAVY RAINMAKERS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING ONE OR MORE INCHES OF RAINFALL IN LESS THAN AN HOUR
THEREFORE WE ARE AT RISK OF FLASH FLOODING.

BY SUNDAY THE AXIS OF MAXIMUM MOISTURE TRANSPORT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
BE FURTHER TO OUR EAST BUT THAT 500 MB TROUGH AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL KEEP THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ELEVATED
ALBEIT LIKELY WITH LESS RAINFALL. 77/BD

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)  MONDAY MORNING THROUGH
AFTERNOON THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION BRINGING WITH IT A DRY WEST TO NORTHWEST  WIND AND FINALLY AN
END TO WET CONDITIONS. OUR NEIGHBORS AND US CONCUR THAT LOWS COULD
DROP BELOW BLENDED GUIDANCE TO THE UPPER 50S IN OUR FAR NORTHWEST
REGIONS AND WE ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
INTRODUCE AN ENVIRONMENT OF SUBSIDENCE KEEPING DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THURSDAY. 77/BD

.MARINE...A LIGHT ONSHORE WIND TODAY WILL SHIFT EAST TO NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SAT MORNING AS A WEAK SURGE OF COOLER/DRIER AIR
MOVES IN THE FROM THE NORTHEAST LATE TODAY THROUGH EARLY SAT. A
MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATE SAT
INTO SUN AND CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND AS THE
UPPER TROF OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY EVENTUALLY SHIFTS
NORTHEAST. A SFC COLD FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE SOUTH OVER THE
MARINE AREA BY EARLY TUE LEADING TO A MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
THROUGH MID WEEK...THEN SHIFTING MOSTLY SOUTHEAST LATER IN THE WEEK
AS A SFC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES REESTABLISHED ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD AND EASTERN GULF. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY
SUN. 32/EE

.AVIATION...
17.12Z ISSUANCE...MVFR TO IFR CIGS THROUGH 18.12Z. THE LOWER
CEILINGS WILL BE MOSTLY IN AND AROUND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOWER CEILINGS
TONIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF LOW STRATUS IN RESPONSE TO A
WEAK SURGE OF COOLER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE NE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
SAT MORNING. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT 8 TO 12 KNOTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS THROUGH THE MORNING SHIFTING WEST TO NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING THEN NORTH TO NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY SAT MORNING. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      79  65  76  69  78 /  80  30  80  70  70
PENSACOLA   77  66  77  70  76 /  80  30  80  60  70
DESTIN      78  69  77  70  76 /  70  30  70  60  70
EVERGREEN   70  63  76  68  77 /  80  30  80  60  70
WAYNESBORO  76  62  75  66  79 /  90  30  80  70  60
CAMDEN      69  63  75  67  79 /  90  30  70  70  70
CRESTVIEW   74  63  78  68  77 /  80  30  70  70  70

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR CHOCTAW-CLARKE-
     ESCAMBIA-LOWER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-UPPER
     MOBILE-WASHINGTON.

FL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR COASTAL ESCAMBIA-
     COASTAL OKALOOSA-COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND ESCAMBIA-INLAND
     OKALOOSA-INLAND SANTA ROSA.

MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR GEORGE-GREENE-PERRY-
     STONE-WAYNE.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 170936
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
436 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...STILL A BIT OF A CHALLENGE WHERE
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR LATER TODAY. CURRENTLY RADAR
LOOPS CONTINUE SHOW HEAVY RAIN OVER THE NW QUAD OF THE CWFA WITH
STORM TOTALS OF 7 TO 8 IN LOCALLY OVER LOWER PARTS OF CHOCTAW CO IN
SW AL RESULTING IN SEVERAL ROAD AND BUSINESSES CLOSED IN AND THE
AROUND THE TOWN OF GILBERTOWN AL. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS THE
HEAVIEST RAIN TO OCCUR OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA
THIS MORNING THEN SHIFTING EAST...MOSTLY INLAND...AND GRADUALLY
WEAKENING IN INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AS A SHORT
LIVED UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL GULF REGION LATE
THIS EVENING...WITH RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING EAST OF THE CWFA SHORTLY
AFTER 12Z SAT. WITH ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS REMAINING SATURATED OVER
THE LOWER AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA COMBINED WITH MORE
HEAVY RAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE DAY...WE WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR NOW FOR AREAS MENTIONED
ABOVE. AT THE SFC COOLER DRYER AIR TO THE NE WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE
DOWN ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SAT MORNING LEADING TO A
WEAK THERMAL/MOISTURE BOUNDARY NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST BY EARLY SAT
MORNING. THIS BOUNDARY COULD BECOME THE FOCUS FOR MORE HEAVY RAIN
MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF THUNDERSTORMS LATER IN THE WEEKEND AS IT
RETREATS NORTH AND DISSIPATES. AS FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY THE BEST
INSTABILITY LOOKS TO OCCUR OVER THE LOWER HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY WITH THE BEST VERTICAL SHEAR ALSO OCCURRING NEAR THE COAST
EARLY THIS MORNING...WEAKENING SIGNIFICANTLY AND SHIFTING NORTHWARD
OVER CENTRAL PARTS OF THE CWA BY MIDDAY. ALOFT WINDS BEGIN TO VEER
LATER THIS MORNING WITH 850 WINDS AT 20 TO 25 KTS GENERALLY FROM THE
WSW BY EARLY AFTERNOON. AS FOR TEMPS WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE COOLER MAV
GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY DUE TO CLOUDS AND RAIN AND THE WARMER MAV
GUIDANCE OVERNIGHT DUE MOSTLY TO LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY SAT MORNING. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S OVER EXTREME NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE CWFA AND THE MID TO UPPER 70S
FOR MOST OTHER AREAS. TONIGHT THE LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 60S FOR INLAND AREAS AND THE UPPER 60S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST. 32/EE

(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...ON SATURDAY WE EXPECT A WARM FRONT TO
MOVE ASHORE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. AVERAGE PRECIPITABLE WATER  WILL BE CLOSE TO 2.0 INCHES
WHICH IS CLOSER TO SUMMER NUMBERS THAN SPRING NUMBERS. OUTPUT OF
GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT INDICATES A NEGATIVELY TILTED 500 MB TROUGH
WHICH WILL BE SHORT IN LENGTH...WILL MOVE INTO OUR REGION AND AS A
RESULT THE LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILE WILL SHOW A SHARP CLOCKWISE TURN
THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO 850 MB. WE ARE SHOWING 200 TO 300 MB
HELICITY IN THE VICINITY OF 200 TO 300 M^2/S^2 SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WHICH IS QUITE WORRISOME DESPITE FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR SATURDAY
WHOSE TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT PROFILES INDICATE MOIST ADIABATIC
RENDERING CAPES AROUND OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 1000. AT THIS POINT WE
BELIEVE WE COULD STILL SEE LOW TOPPED SUPERCELLS WITH THE REALIZATION
THAT THE CAPE FORECAST COULD CHANGE CAUSING THE DEPTH OF SUCH
CONVECTION TO INCREASE. WE ARE THINKING THE HIGHEST RISK WILL BE WEST
OF I-65 FROM LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY EVENING.
AS THE ACTIVITY MOVES EAST TOWARD SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA AND THE
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE DURING THE NIGHT...THE RISK WILL DIMINISH
SLIGHTLY. AS WELL THESE STORMS SHOULD BE HEAVY RAINMAKERS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING ONE OR MORE INCHES OF RAINFALL IN LESS THAN AN HOUR
THEREFORE WE ARE AT RISK OF FLASH FLOODING.

BY SUNDAY THE AXIS OF MAXIMUM MOISTURE TRANSPORT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
BE FURTHER TO OUR EAST BUT THAT 500 MB TROUGH AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL KEEP THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ELEVATED
ALBEIT LIKELY WITH LESS RAINFALL. 77/BD

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)  MONDAY MORNING THROUGH
AFTERNOON THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION BRINGING WITH IT A DRY WEST TO NORTHWEST  WIND AND FINALLY AN
END TO WET CONDITIONS. OUR NEIGHBORS AND US CONCUR THAT LOWS COULD
DROP BELOW BLENDED GUIDANCE TO THE UPPER 50S IN OUR FAR NORTHWEST
REGIONS AND WE ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
INTRODUCE AN ENVIRONMENT OF SUBSIDENCE KEEPING DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THURSDAY. 77/BD

.MARINE...A LIGHT ONSHORE WIND TODAY WILL SHIFT EAST TO NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SAT MORNING AS A WEAK SURGE OF COOLER/DRIER AIR
MOVES IN THE FROM THE NORTHEAST LATE TODAY THROUGH EARLY SAT. A
MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATE SAT
INTO SUN AND CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND AS THE
UPPER TROF OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY EVENTUALLY SHIFTS
NORTHEAST. A SFC COLD FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE SOUTH OVER THE
MARINE AREA BY EARLY TUE LEADING TO A MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
THROUGH MID WEEK...THEN SHIFTING MOSTLY SOUTHEAST LATER IN THE WEEK
AS A SFC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES REESTABLISHED ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD AND EASTERN GULF. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY
SUN. 32/EE

.AVIATION...
17.12Z ISSUANCE...MVFR TO IFR CIGS THROUGH 18.12Z. THE LOWER
CEILINGS WILL BE MOSTLY IN AND AROUND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOWER CEILINGS
TONIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF LOW STRATUS IN RESPONSE TO A
WEAK SURGE OF COOLER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE NE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
SAT MORNING. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT 8 TO 12 KNOTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS THROUGH THE MORNING SHIFTING WEST TO NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING THEN NORTH TO NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY SAT MORNING. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      79  65  76  69  78 /  80  30  80  70  70
PENSACOLA   77  66  77  70  76 /  80  30  80  60  70
DESTIN      78  69  77  70  76 /  70  30  70  60  70
EVERGREEN   70  63  76  68  77 /  80  30  80  60  70
WAYNESBORO  76  62  75  66  79 /  90  30  80  70  60
CAMDEN      69  63  75  67  79 /  90  30  70  70  70
CRESTVIEW   74  63  78  68  77 /  80  30  70  70  70

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR CHOCTAW-CLARKE-
     ESCAMBIA-LOWER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-UPPER
     MOBILE-WASHINGTON.

FL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR COASTAL ESCAMBIA-
     COASTAL OKALOOSA-COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND ESCAMBIA-INLAND
     OKALOOSA-INLAND SANTA ROSA.

MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR GEORGE-GREENE-PERRY-
     STONE-WAYNE.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMOB 170503 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1203 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.PUBLIC UPDATE...KMOB RADAR DETECTING AN AREA OF VERY SLOW MOVING
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS OUR FAR INLAND SOUTHWEST
ALABAMA COUNTIES ALONG A SURFACE BOUNDARY...WITH EMBEDDED HEAVY RAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL CHOCTAW
COUNTY. A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 415 AM FOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL CHOCTAW COUNTY WHERE RADAR RAINFALL
ESTIMATES HAVE INDICATED 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN OVER THE
PAST THREE HOURS. THIS HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
FOR ANOTHER 2 TO 3 HOURS. RADAR IS ALSO DETECTING A VERY LARGE AREA
OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI...OUR NORTHERN GULF COAST COUNTIES AND THE GULF OF
MEXICO. HEAVIER RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN
NOTED OVER THE GULF AS WELL. THIS PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD EAST-
NORTHEAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES OVERHEAD. WILL MAINTAIN
A 60 TO 90 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO
FRIDAY. EXPECT ANOTHER WIDESPREAD 1.25 TO 2.5 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WITH LOCALIZED HEAVIER AMOUNTS UP TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE.
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO INCLUDE CHOCTAW AND CLARKE
COUNTIES. FURTHER EXPANSION TO INCLUDE COUNTIES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA MAY BE REQUIRED IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. UPDATED GRIDS AND
PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT. /22

AVIATION...
17.06Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF CYCLE...
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST...SO WILL START OFF THE TAF SITES WITH -RA AND UNRESTRICTED
VISIBILITIES. CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WITH IFR
CEILINGS (~500 -700 FEET) EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY IN THE FORECAST
CYCLE...FOLLOWED BY LIFR CEILINGS (~400 FEET) DEVELOPING BETWEEN
17.10Z AND 17.12Z. UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN PASSING
OVER THE REGION BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY...WITH NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. ALL OF THE
TAF SITES WILL SEE A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY
MORNING THROUGH NOON...SO IT IS DURING THIS TIME FRAME AVIATORS CAN
EXPECT PREVAILING IFR VISIBILITIES (~2SM) DUE TO MODERATE RAIN WITH
CEILINGS REMAINING IN THE LIFR CATEGORY. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY
MID AFTERNOON AS THE RAIN MOVES EAST...WITH A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
REMAINING...CEILINGS IMPROVING TO MVFR CONDITIONS (~1500 FEET)
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH VFR VISIBILITIES. /22

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015/

...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH OVERNIGHT...

SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND FRIDAY)...CURRENTLY LEADING EDGE OF LOW-
LEVEL WEDGE IS ENTRENCHED FROM WILCOX COUNTY TO CONECUH COUNTY TO
COVINGTON COUNTY IN SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND HAS NOT MOVED MUCH IN PAST
FEW HOURS. REGIONAL KINEMATICS ARE CURRENTLY SUCH THAT MID- AND
UPPER LEVEL HIGHLY DIFFLUENT AND DIVERGENT FLOW WITH COMPENSATING
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS PLAYING A LARGE ROLE IN ENHANCING LOCAL
ASCENT VIA DIFFERENTIAL DIVERGENCE THIS AFTERNOON. THE
AFOREMENTIONED WEDGE IS SITUATED RIGHT IN THE MIX AND MOISTURE FLUX
CONVERGENCE IS AIDING TO INCREASE LOWER LEVEL AVAILABLE WATER VAPOR CONTENT
LOCALLY ALONG THE BOUNDARY. SBCAPES ARE RANGING 1500-200 J/KG INVOF.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN INITIATED AND PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE HAS INCREASED. THIS TREND CONTINUES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH LOCALES NORTH OF THE I- 10
CORRIDOR...RECEIVING THE GREATEST THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
INTO THE EVENING. ONCE PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS IT WILL MOVE TO THE
NORTH AWAY FROM THE COAST. AT THE SAME TIME...LATEST HRRR IS
BEGINNING TO SUGGEST THAT A CURRENT AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER SW LA WILL FURTHER EXPAND AND MOVE INTO THE REGION AFTER THE
FIRST ABOVE MENTIONED AREA. SO COVERAGE WILL BE ENHANCED OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE OVERNIGHT...RAIN CHANCES WILL BE GREATEST NORTH OF I-10
THIS EVENING (BUT DO NOT DISCOUNT INDIVIDUAL THUNDERSTORM CELLS WITH
VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG THE COASTAL STRIP). OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE
IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S... EXCEPT LOWER 60S NORTH OF HIGHWAY 84 AND
EAST OF I-65 WHERE THE WEDGE HAS SETTLED.

AS A JET STREAK MOVES AROUND THE BASE OF A POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL LOW
CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...DOWNSTREAM
RIDGING BUILDS OVER OUR AREA IN THE WAKE OF TODAY`S S/WAVE
DEPARTURE. FAVORABLE UPWARD KINEMATIC FORCING DIMINISHES. DESPITE A
LACK OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY TOMORROW...THE LOCAL ATMOSPHERE REMAINS
SATURATED AND MOIST ADIABATIC AND THE ABSOLUTE VALUE OF DEEP LAYER
WATER VAPOR CONTENT CHANGES VERY LITTLE WITH TIME. IN FACT THE THE
WATER VAPOR MAGNITUDE IN THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN REMAINS NEAR
HISTORICAL VALUES ACCORDING TO THE NAEFS ENS./CFSR 30 YR CLIMATOLOGY
(WHICH HAS PANNED OUT WELL THIS WHOLE WEEK WHEN COMPARED TO ACTUAL
SOUNDING OBSERVATIONS). ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL EXIST TOMORROW
AFTERNOON BUT PRECIPITATION MAY FOLLOW MORE OF A DIURNAL PATTERN
GIVEN THE DEVELOPMENT OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
.POSSIBLY INDUCING FLASH FLOODING...WILL ONCE AGAIN FORM FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGHS TOMORROW UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 DEPENDING ON EXACT
DISTRIBUTION OF ACTUAL PRECIPITATION.  /23 JMM

LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) A WARM FRONT ALONG OUR
COAST OVERNIGHT FRIDAY WILL KEEP LOW...OVERCAST CLOUD COVER...OCNL
LIGHT RAIN AND PERHAPS FOG OVER OUR COASTAL COUNTIES FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. SATURDAY THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD
AND MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. DURING THE
AFTERNOON LAYER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ACROSS THE REGION ARE NEAR
RECORD LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...A NEGATIVE TILT UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO PROPAGATE INTO THE AREA. 0 TO 1 KM HELICITIES
CLIMB TO 150 METERS SQUARED PER SECOND SQUARED AND CAPES EXPECTED
ABOVE THOUSAND J/KG DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WEST
OF I-65 LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING...WITH POTENTIAL
DECREASING BUT STILL EXISTING AS STORMS PROPAGATE EASTWARD OVER
CENTRAL ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE DURING THE NIGHT.
AS WELL THESE STORMS SHOULD BE HEAVY RAINFALL PRODUCERS...CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING ONE OR MORE INCHES OF RAINFALL IN AN HOURS TIME...SO
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING REMAINS A POSSIBILITY.

BY SUNDAY THE MAIN MOISTURES AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD BUT WE STILL REMAIN
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...THUS THUNDERSTORMS AND RAIN SHOWERS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE BUT LESS INTENSE AND WITH LESS RAINFALL.

MONDAY MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
FINALLY PUSH THROUGH THE REGION BRINGING WITH IT A DRIER WEST TO
NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW AND AN END TO THE PRECIPITATION. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL THEN SHIELD THE REGION AND KEEP US DRY THROUGH
THURSDAY. / 08 JW

MARINE...A LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. A LIGHT TO MODERATE
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT.
PERIODS OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THESE STORMS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
FREQUENT CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS. SEAS WILL BE
HIGHER IN AND AROUND THUNDERSTORMS. /08 JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      67  80  66  78  68 /  90  80  50  80  60
PENSACOLA   68  77  68  79  70 /  70  80  40  70  70
DESTIN      68  75  70  77  70 /  70  80  20  70  70
EVERGREEN   65  78  64  78  69 /  80  80  30  80  70
WAYNESBORO  64  80  66  79  64 /  90  80  50  80  60
CAMDEN      64  78  64  77  68 /  80  70  30  80  70
CRESTVIEW   64  78  67  79  68 /  80  70  30  70  70

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR CHOCTAW-CLARKE-
     ESCAMBIA-LOWER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-UPPER
     MOBILE-WASHINGTON.

FL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR COASTAL ESCAMBIA-
     COASTAL OKALOOSA-COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND ESCAMBIA-INLAND
     OKALOOSA-INLAND SANTA ROSA.

MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR GEORGE-GREENE-PERRY-
     STONE-WAYNE.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 170503 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1203 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.PUBLIC UPDATE...KMOB RADAR DETECTING AN AREA OF VERY SLOW MOVING
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS OUR FAR INLAND SOUTHWEST
ALABAMA COUNTIES ALONG A SURFACE BOUNDARY...WITH EMBEDDED HEAVY RAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL CHOCTAW
COUNTY. A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 415 AM FOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL CHOCTAW COUNTY WHERE RADAR RAINFALL
ESTIMATES HAVE INDICATED 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN OVER THE
PAST THREE HOURS. THIS HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
FOR ANOTHER 2 TO 3 HOURS. RADAR IS ALSO DETECTING A VERY LARGE AREA
OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI...OUR NORTHERN GULF COAST COUNTIES AND THE GULF OF
MEXICO. HEAVIER RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN
NOTED OVER THE GULF AS WELL. THIS PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD EAST-
NORTHEAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES OVERHEAD. WILL MAINTAIN
A 60 TO 90 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO
FRIDAY. EXPECT ANOTHER WIDESPREAD 1.25 TO 2.5 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WITH LOCALIZED HEAVIER AMOUNTS UP TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE.
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO INCLUDE CHOCTAW AND CLARKE
COUNTIES. FURTHER EXPANSION TO INCLUDE COUNTIES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA MAY BE REQUIRED IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. UPDATED GRIDS AND
PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT. /22

AVIATION...
17.06Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF CYCLE...
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST...SO WILL START OFF THE TAF SITES WITH -RA AND UNRESTRICTED
VISIBILITIES. CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WITH IFR
CEILINGS (~500 -700 FEET) EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY IN THE FORECAST
CYCLE...FOLLOWED BY LIFR CEILINGS (~400 FEET) DEVELOPING BETWEEN
17.10Z AND 17.12Z. UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN PASSING
OVER THE REGION BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY...WITH NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. ALL OF THE
TAF SITES WILL SEE A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY
MORNING THROUGH NOON...SO IT IS DURING THIS TIME FRAME AVIATORS CAN
EXPECT PREVAILING IFR VISIBILITIES (~2SM) DUE TO MODERATE RAIN WITH
CEILINGS REMAINING IN THE LIFR CATEGORY. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY
MID AFTERNOON AS THE RAIN MOVES EAST...WITH A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
REMAINING...CEILINGS IMPROVING TO MVFR CONDITIONS (~1500 FEET)
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH VFR VISIBILITIES. /22

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015/

...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH OVERNIGHT...

SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND FRIDAY)...CURRENTLY LEADING EDGE OF LOW-
LEVEL WEDGE IS ENTRENCHED FROM WILCOX COUNTY TO CONECUH COUNTY TO
COVINGTON COUNTY IN SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND HAS NOT MOVED MUCH IN PAST
FEW HOURS. REGIONAL KINEMATICS ARE CURRENTLY SUCH THAT MID- AND
UPPER LEVEL HIGHLY DIFFLUENT AND DIVERGENT FLOW WITH COMPENSATING
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS PLAYING A LARGE ROLE IN ENHANCING LOCAL
ASCENT VIA DIFFERENTIAL DIVERGENCE THIS AFTERNOON. THE
AFOREMENTIONED WEDGE IS SITUATED RIGHT IN THE MIX AND MOISTURE FLUX
CONVERGENCE IS AIDING TO INCREASE LOWER LEVEL AVAILABLE WATER VAPOR CONTENT
LOCALLY ALONG THE BOUNDARY. SBCAPES ARE RANGING 1500-200 J/KG INVOF.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN INITIATED AND PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE HAS INCREASED. THIS TREND CONTINUES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH LOCALES NORTH OF THE I- 10
CORRIDOR...RECEIVING THE GREATEST THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
INTO THE EVENING. ONCE PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS IT WILL MOVE TO THE
NORTH AWAY FROM THE COAST. AT THE SAME TIME...LATEST HRRR IS
BEGINNING TO SUGGEST THAT A CURRENT AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER SW LA WILL FURTHER EXPAND AND MOVE INTO THE REGION AFTER THE
FIRST ABOVE MENTIONED AREA. SO COVERAGE WILL BE ENHANCED OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE OVERNIGHT...RAIN CHANCES WILL BE GREATEST NORTH OF I-10
THIS EVENING (BUT DO NOT DISCOUNT INDIVIDUAL THUNDERSTORM CELLS WITH
VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG THE COASTAL STRIP). OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE
IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S... EXCEPT LOWER 60S NORTH OF HIGHWAY 84 AND
EAST OF I-65 WHERE THE WEDGE HAS SETTLED.

AS A JET STREAK MOVES AROUND THE BASE OF A POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL LOW
CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...DOWNSTREAM
RIDGING BUILDS OVER OUR AREA IN THE WAKE OF TODAY`S S/WAVE
DEPARTURE. FAVORABLE UPWARD KINEMATIC FORCING DIMINISHES. DESPITE A
LACK OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY TOMORROW...THE LOCAL ATMOSPHERE REMAINS
SATURATED AND MOIST ADIABATIC AND THE ABSOLUTE VALUE OF DEEP LAYER
WATER VAPOR CONTENT CHANGES VERY LITTLE WITH TIME. IN FACT THE THE
WATER VAPOR MAGNITUDE IN THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN REMAINS NEAR
HISTORICAL VALUES ACCORDING TO THE NAEFS ENS./CFSR 30 YR CLIMATOLOGY
(WHICH HAS PANNED OUT WELL THIS WHOLE WEEK WHEN COMPARED TO ACTUAL
SOUNDING OBSERVATIONS). ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL EXIST TOMORROW
AFTERNOON BUT PRECIPITATION MAY FOLLOW MORE OF A DIURNAL PATTERN
GIVEN THE DEVELOPMENT OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
.POSSIBLY INDUCING FLASH FLOODING...WILL ONCE AGAIN FORM FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGHS TOMORROW UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 DEPENDING ON EXACT
DISTRIBUTION OF ACTUAL PRECIPITATION.  /23 JMM

LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) A WARM FRONT ALONG OUR
COAST OVERNIGHT FRIDAY WILL KEEP LOW...OVERCAST CLOUD COVER...OCNL
LIGHT RAIN AND PERHAPS FOG OVER OUR COASTAL COUNTIES FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. SATURDAY THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD
AND MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. DURING THE
AFTERNOON LAYER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ACROSS THE REGION ARE NEAR
RECORD LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...A NEGATIVE TILT UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO PROPAGATE INTO THE AREA. 0 TO 1 KM HELICITIES
CLIMB TO 150 METERS SQUARED PER SECOND SQUARED AND CAPES EXPECTED
ABOVE THOUSAND J/KG DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WEST
OF I-65 LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING...WITH POTENTIAL
DECREASING BUT STILL EXISTING AS STORMS PROPAGATE EASTWARD OVER
CENTRAL ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE DURING THE NIGHT.
AS WELL THESE STORMS SHOULD BE HEAVY RAINFALL PRODUCERS...CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING ONE OR MORE INCHES OF RAINFALL IN AN HOURS TIME...SO
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING REMAINS A POSSIBILITY.

BY SUNDAY THE MAIN MOISTURES AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD BUT WE STILL REMAIN
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...THUS THUNDERSTORMS AND RAIN SHOWERS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE BUT LESS INTENSE AND WITH LESS RAINFALL.

MONDAY MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
FINALLY PUSH THROUGH THE REGION BRINGING WITH IT A DRIER WEST TO
NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW AND AN END TO THE PRECIPITATION. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL THEN SHIELD THE REGION AND KEEP US DRY THROUGH
THURSDAY. / 08 JW

MARINE...A LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. A LIGHT TO MODERATE
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT.
PERIODS OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THESE STORMS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
FREQUENT CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS. SEAS WILL BE
HIGHER IN AND AROUND THUNDERSTORMS. /08 JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      67  80  66  78  68 /  90  80  50  80  60
PENSACOLA   68  77  68  79  70 /  70  80  40  70  70
DESTIN      68  75  70  77  70 /  70  80  20  70  70
EVERGREEN   65  78  64  78  69 /  80  80  30  80  70
WAYNESBORO  64  80  66  79  64 /  90  80  50  80  60
CAMDEN      64  78  64  77  68 /  80  70  30  80  70
CRESTVIEW   64  78  67  79  68 /  80  70  30  70  70

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR CHOCTAW-CLARKE-
     ESCAMBIA-LOWER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-UPPER
     MOBILE-WASHINGTON.

FL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR COASTAL ESCAMBIA-
     COASTAL OKALOOSA-COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND ESCAMBIA-INLAND
     OKALOOSA-INLAND SANTA ROSA.

MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR GEORGE-GREENE-PERRY-
     STONE-WAYNE.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMOB 170503 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1203 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.PUBLIC UPDATE...KMOB RADAR DETECTING AN AREA OF VERY SLOW MOVING
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS OUR FAR INLAND SOUTHWEST
ALABAMA COUNTIES ALONG A SURFACE BOUNDARY...WITH EMBEDDED HEAVY RAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL CHOCTAW
COUNTY. A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 415 AM FOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL CHOCTAW COUNTY WHERE RADAR RAINFALL
ESTIMATES HAVE INDICATED 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN OVER THE
PAST THREE HOURS. THIS HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
FOR ANOTHER 2 TO 3 HOURS. RADAR IS ALSO DETECTING A VERY LARGE AREA
OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI...OUR NORTHERN GULF COAST COUNTIES AND THE GULF OF
MEXICO. HEAVIER RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN
NOTED OVER THE GULF AS WELL. THIS PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD EAST-
NORTHEAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES OVERHEAD. WILL MAINTAIN
A 60 TO 90 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO
FRIDAY. EXPECT ANOTHER WIDESPREAD 1.25 TO 2.5 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WITH LOCALIZED HEAVIER AMOUNTS UP TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE.
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO INCLUDE CHOCTAW AND CLARKE
COUNTIES. FURTHER EXPANSION TO INCLUDE COUNTIES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA MAY BE REQUIRED IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. UPDATED GRIDS AND
PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT. /22

AVIATION...
17.06Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF CYCLE...
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST...SO WILL START OFF THE TAF SITES WITH -RA AND UNRESTRICTED
VISIBILITIES. CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WITH IFR
CEILINGS (~500 -700 FEET) EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY IN THE FORECAST
CYCLE...FOLLOWED BY LIFR CEILINGS (~400 FEET) DEVELOPING BETWEEN
17.10Z AND 17.12Z. UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN PASSING
OVER THE REGION BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY...WITH NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. ALL OF THE
TAF SITES WILL SEE A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY
MORNING THROUGH NOON...SO IT IS DURING THIS TIME FRAME AVIATORS CAN
EXPECT PREVAILING IFR VISIBILITIES (~2SM) DUE TO MODERATE RAIN WITH
CEILINGS REMAINING IN THE LIFR CATEGORY. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY
MID AFTERNOON AS THE RAIN MOVES EAST...WITH A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
REMAINING...CEILINGS IMPROVING TO MVFR CONDITIONS (~1500 FEET)
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH VFR VISIBILITIES. /22

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015/

...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH OVERNIGHT...

SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND FRIDAY)...CURRENTLY LEADING EDGE OF LOW-
LEVEL WEDGE IS ENTRENCHED FROM WILCOX COUNTY TO CONECUH COUNTY TO
COVINGTON COUNTY IN SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND HAS NOT MOVED MUCH IN PAST
FEW HOURS. REGIONAL KINEMATICS ARE CURRENTLY SUCH THAT MID- AND
UPPER LEVEL HIGHLY DIFFLUENT AND DIVERGENT FLOW WITH COMPENSATING
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS PLAYING A LARGE ROLE IN ENHANCING LOCAL
ASCENT VIA DIFFERENTIAL DIVERGENCE THIS AFTERNOON. THE
AFOREMENTIONED WEDGE IS SITUATED RIGHT IN THE MIX AND MOISTURE FLUX
CONVERGENCE IS AIDING TO INCREASE LOWER LEVEL AVAILABLE WATER VAPOR CONTENT
LOCALLY ALONG THE BOUNDARY. SBCAPES ARE RANGING 1500-200 J/KG INVOF.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN INITIATED AND PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE HAS INCREASED. THIS TREND CONTINUES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH LOCALES NORTH OF THE I- 10
CORRIDOR...RECEIVING THE GREATEST THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
INTO THE EVENING. ONCE PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS IT WILL MOVE TO THE
NORTH AWAY FROM THE COAST. AT THE SAME TIME...LATEST HRRR IS
BEGINNING TO SUGGEST THAT A CURRENT AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER SW LA WILL FURTHER EXPAND AND MOVE INTO THE REGION AFTER THE
FIRST ABOVE MENTIONED AREA. SO COVERAGE WILL BE ENHANCED OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE OVERNIGHT...RAIN CHANCES WILL BE GREATEST NORTH OF I-10
THIS EVENING (BUT DO NOT DISCOUNT INDIVIDUAL THUNDERSTORM CELLS WITH
VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG THE COASTAL STRIP). OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE
IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S... EXCEPT LOWER 60S NORTH OF HIGHWAY 84 AND
EAST OF I-65 WHERE THE WEDGE HAS SETTLED.

AS A JET STREAK MOVES AROUND THE BASE OF A POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL LOW
CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...DOWNSTREAM
RIDGING BUILDS OVER OUR AREA IN THE WAKE OF TODAY`S S/WAVE
DEPARTURE. FAVORABLE UPWARD KINEMATIC FORCING DIMINISHES. DESPITE A
LACK OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY TOMORROW...THE LOCAL ATMOSPHERE REMAINS
SATURATED AND MOIST ADIABATIC AND THE ABSOLUTE VALUE OF DEEP LAYER
WATER VAPOR CONTENT CHANGES VERY LITTLE WITH TIME. IN FACT THE THE
WATER VAPOR MAGNITUDE IN THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN REMAINS NEAR
HISTORICAL VALUES ACCORDING TO THE NAEFS ENS./CFSR 30 YR CLIMATOLOGY
(WHICH HAS PANNED OUT WELL THIS WHOLE WEEK WHEN COMPARED TO ACTUAL
SOUNDING OBSERVATIONS). ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL EXIST TOMORROW
AFTERNOON BUT PRECIPITATION MAY FOLLOW MORE OF A DIURNAL PATTERN
GIVEN THE DEVELOPMENT OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
.POSSIBLY INDUCING FLASH FLOODING...WILL ONCE AGAIN FORM FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGHS TOMORROW UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 DEPENDING ON EXACT
DISTRIBUTION OF ACTUAL PRECIPITATION.  /23 JMM

LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) A WARM FRONT ALONG OUR
COAST OVERNIGHT FRIDAY WILL KEEP LOW...OVERCAST CLOUD COVER...OCNL
LIGHT RAIN AND PERHAPS FOG OVER OUR COASTAL COUNTIES FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. SATURDAY THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD
AND MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. DURING THE
AFTERNOON LAYER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ACROSS THE REGION ARE NEAR
RECORD LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...A NEGATIVE TILT UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO PROPAGATE INTO THE AREA. 0 TO 1 KM HELICITIES
CLIMB TO 150 METERS SQUARED PER SECOND SQUARED AND CAPES EXPECTED
ABOVE THOUSAND J/KG DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WEST
OF I-65 LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING...WITH POTENTIAL
DECREASING BUT STILL EXISTING AS STORMS PROPAGATE EASTWARD OVER
CENTRAL ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE DURING THE NIGHT.
AS WELL THESE STORMS SHOULD BE HEAVY RAINFALL PRODUCERS...CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING ONE OR MORE INCHES OF RAINFALL IN AN HOURS TIME...SO
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING REMAINS A POSSIBILITY.

BY SUNDAY THE MAIN MOISTURES AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD BUT WE STILL REMAIN
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...THUS THUNDERSTORMS AND RAIN SHOWERS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE BUT LESS INTENSE AND WITH LESS RAINFALL.

MONDAY MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
FINALLY PUSH THROUGH THE REGION BRINGING WITH IT A DRIER WEST TO
NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW AND AN END TO THE PRECIPITATION. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL THEN SHIELD THE REGION AND KEEP US DRY THROUGH
THURSDAY. / 08 JW

MARINE...A LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. A LIGHT TO MODERATE
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT.
PERIODS OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THESE STORMS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
FREQUENT CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS. SEAS WILL BE
HIGHER IN AND AROUND THUNDERSTORMS. /08 JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      67  80  66  78  68 /  90  80  50  80  60
PENSACOLA   68  77  68  79  70 /  70  80  40  70  70
DESTIN      68  75  70  77  70 /  70  80  20  70  70
EVERGREEN   65  78  64  78  69 /  80  80  30  80  70
WAYNESBORO  64  80  66  79  64 /  90  80  50  80  60
CAMDEN      64  78  64  77  68 /  80  70  30  80  70
CRESTVIEW   64  78  67  79  68 /  80  70  30  70  70

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR CHOCTAW-CLARKE-
     ESCAMBIA-LOWER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-UPPER
     MOBILE-WASHINGTON.

FL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR COASTAL ESCAMBIA-
     COASTAL OKALOOSA-COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND ESCAMBIA-INLAND
     OKALOOSA-INLAND SANTA ROSA.

MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR GEORGE-GREENE-PERRY-
     STONE-WAYNE.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 170503 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1203 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.PUBLIC UPDATE...KMOB RADAR DETECTING AN AREA OF VERY SLOW MOVING
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS OUR FAR INLAND SOUTHWEST
ALABAMA COUNTIES ALONG A SURFACE BOUNDARY...WITH EMBEDDED HEAVY RAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL CHOCTAW
COUNTY. A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 415 AM FOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL CHOCTAW COUNTY WHERE RADAR RAINFALL
ESTIMATES HAVE INDICATED 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN OVER THE
PAST THREE HOURS. THIS HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
FOR ANOTHER 2 TO 3 HOURS. RADAR IS ALSO DETECTING A VERY LARGE AREA
OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI...OUR NORTHERN GULF COAST COUNTIES AND THE GULF OF
MEXICO. HEAVIER RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN
NOTED OVER THE GULF AS WELL. THIS PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD EAST-
NORTHEAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES OVERHEAD. WILL MAINTAIN
A 60 TO 90 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO
FRIDAY. EXPECT ANOTHER WIDESPREAD 1.25 TO 2.5 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WITH LOCALIZED HEAVIER AMOUNTS UP TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE.
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO INCLUDE CHOCTAW AND CLARKE
COUNTIES. FURTHER EXPANSION TO INCLUDE COUNTIES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA MAY BE REQUIRED IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. UPDATED GRIDS AND
PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT. /22

AVIATION...
17.06Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF CYCLE...
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST...SO WILL START OFF THE TAF SITES WITH -RA AND UNRESTRICTED
VISIBILITIES. CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WITH IFR
CEILINGS (~500 -700 FEET) EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY IN THE FORECAST
CYCLE...FOLLOWED BY LIFR CEILINGS (~400 FEET) DEVELOPING BETWEEN
17.10Z AND 17.12Z. UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN PASSING
OVER THE REGION BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY...WITH NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. ALL OF THE
TAF SITES WILL SEE A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY
MORNING THROUGH NOON...SO IT IS DURING THIS TIME FRAME AVIATORS CAN
EXPECT PREVAILING IFR VISIBILITIES (~2SM) DUE TO MODERATE RAIN WITH
CEILINGS REMAINING IN THE LIFR CATEGORY. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY
MID AFTERNOON AS THE RAIN MOVES EAST...WITH A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
REMAINING...CEILINGS IMPROVING TO MVFR CONDITIONS (~1500 FEET)
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH VFR VISIBILITIES. /22

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015/

...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH OVERNIGHT...

SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND FRIDAY)...CURRENTLY LEADING EDGE OF LOW-
LEVEL WEDGE IS ENTRENCHED FROM WILCOX COUNTY TO CONECUH COUNTY TO
COVINGTON COUNTY IN SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND HAS NOT MOVED MUCH IN PAST
FEW HOURS. REGIONAL KINEMATICS ARE CURRENTLY SUCH THAT MID- AND
UPPER LEVEL HIGHLY DIFFLUENT AND DIVERGENT FLOW WITH COMPENSATING
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS PLAYING A LARGE ROLE IN ENHANCING LOCAL
ASCENT VIA DIFFERENTIAL DIVERGENCE THIS AFTERNOON. THE
AFOREMENTIONED WEDGE IS SITUATED RIGHT IN THE MIX AND MOISTURE FLUX
CONVERGENCE IS AIDING TO INCREASE LOWER LEVEL AVAILABLE WATER VAPOR CONTENT
LOCALLY ALONG THE BOUNDARY. SBCAPES ARE RANGING 1500-200 J/KG INVOF.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN INITIATED AND PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE HAS INCREASED. THIS TREND CONTINUES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH LOCALES NORTH OF THE I- 10
CORRIDOR...RECEIVING THE GREATEST THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
INTO THE EVENING. ONCE PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS IT WILL MOVE TO THE
NORTH AWAY FROM THE COAST. AT THE SAME TIME...LATEST HRRR IS
BEGINNING TO SUGGEST THAT A CURRENT AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER SW LA WILL FURTHER EXPAND AND MOVE INTO THE REGION AFTER THE
FIRST ABOVE MENTIONED AREA. SO COVERAGE WILL BE ENHANCED OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE OVERNIGHT...RAIN CHANCES WILL BE GREATEST NORTH OF I-10
THIS EVENING (BUT DO NOT DISCOUNT INDIVIDUAL THUNDERSTORM CELLS WITH
VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG THE COASTAL STRIP). OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE
IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S... EXCEPT LOWER 60S NORTH OF HIGHWAY 84 AND
EAST OF I-65 WHERE THE WEDGE HAS SETTLED.

AS A JET STREAK MOVES AROUND THE BASE OF A POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL LOW
CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...DOWNSTREAM
RIDGING BUILDS OVER OUR AREA IN THE WAKE OF TODAY`S S/WAVE
DEPARTURE. FAVORABLE UPWARD KINEMATIC FORCING DIMINISHES. DESPITE A
LACK OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY TOMORROW...THE LOCAL ATMOSPHERE REMAINS
SATURATED AND MOIST ADIABATIC AND THE ABSOLUTE VALUE OF DEEP LAYER
WATER VAPOR CONTENT CHANGES VERY LITTLE WITH TIME. IN FACT THE THE
WATER VAPOR MAGNITUDE IN THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN REMAINS NEAR
HISTORICAL VALUES ACCORDING TO THE NAEFS ENS./CFSR 30 YR CLIMATOLOGY
(WHICH HAS PANNED OUT WELL THIS WHOLE WEEK WHEN COMPARED TO ACTUAL
SOUNDING OBSERVATIONS). ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL EXIST TOMORROW
AFTERNOON BUT PRECIPITATION MAY FOLLOW MORE OF A DIURNAL PATTERN
GIVEN THE DEVELOPMENT OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
.POSSIBLY INDUCING FLASH FLOODING...WILL ONCE AGAIN FORM FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGHS TOMORROW UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 DEPENDING ON EXACT
DISTRIBUTION OF ACTUAL PRECIPITATION.  /23 JMM

LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) A WARM FRONT ALONG OUR
COAST OVERNIGHT FRIDAY WILL KEEP LOW...OVERCAST CLOUD COVER...OCNL
LIGHT RAIN AND PERHAPS FOG OVER OUR COASTAL COUNTIES FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. SATURDAY THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD
AND MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. DURING THE
AFTERNOON LAYER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ACROSS THE REGION ARE NEAR
RECORD LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...A NEGATIVE TILT UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO PROPAGATE INTO THE AREA. 0 TO 1 KM HELICITIES
CLIMB TO 150 METERS SQUARED PER SECOND SQUARED AND CAPES EXPECTED
ABOVE THOUSAND J/KG DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WEST
OF I-65 LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING...WITH POTENTIAL
DECREASING BUT STILL EXISTING AS STORMS PROPAGATE EASTWARD OVER
CENTRAL ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE DURING THE NIGHT.
AS WELL THESE STORMS SHOULD BE HEAVY RAINFALL PRODUCERS...CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING ONE OR MORE INCHES OF RAINFALL IN AN HOURS TIME...SO
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING REMAINS A POSSIBILITY.

BY SUNDAY THE MAIN MOISTURES AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD BUT WE STILL REMAIN
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...THUS THUNDERSTORMS AND RAIN SHOWERS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE BUT LESS INTENSE AND WITH LESS RAINFALL.

MONDAY MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
FINALLY PUSH THROUGH THE REGION BRINGING WITH IT A DRIER WEST TO
NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW AND AN END TO THE PRECIPITATION. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL THEN SHIELD THE REGION AND KEEP US DRY THROUGH
THURSDAY. / 08 JW

MARINE...A LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. A LIGHT TO MODERATE
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT.
PERIODS OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THESE STORMS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
FREQUENT CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS. SEAS WILL BE
HIGHER IN AND AROUND THUNDERSTORMS. /08 JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      67  80  66  78  68 /  90  80  50  80  60
PENSACOLA   68  77  68  79  70 /  70  80  40  70  70
DESTIN      68  75  70  77  70 /  70  80  20  70  70
EVERGREEN   65  78  64  78  69 /  80  80  30  80  70
WAYNESBORO  64  80  66  79  64 /  90  80  50  80  60
CAMDEN      64  78  64  77  68 /  80  70  30  80  70
CRESTVIEW   64  78  67  79  68 /  80  70  30  70  70

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR CHOCTAW-CLARKE-
     ESCAMBIA-LOWER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-UPPER
     MOBILE-WASHINGTON.

FL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR COASTAL ESCAMBIA-
     COASTAL OKALOOSA-COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND ESCAMBIA-INLAND
     OKALOOSA-INLAND SANTA ROSA.

MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR GEORGE-GREENE-PERRY-
     STONE-WAYNE.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMOB 170004 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
704 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.AVIATION...
17.00Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF CYCLE...
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS SOUTH MOBILE COUNTY...MOBILE BAY AND THE
GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE NORTH EARLY THIS EVENING...SO WILL START
OFF THE KMOB AND KBFM TAF SITES WITH -RA AND UNRESTRICTED
VISIBILITIES. CEILINGS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO LOWER WITH THE APPROACHING
LIGHT RAIN...BUT REMAIN AT VFR CRITERIA. IT WILL REMAIN RAIN-FREE AT
KPNS THROUGH 17.05Z...WITH LIGHT RAIN THEN MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO ALONG WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES (~4 SM) AND MVFR
CEILINGS (~1500 FEET). LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL THEN INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY AROUND MIDNIGHT ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WITH IFR
CEILINGS (~700 FEET) EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 17.06Z AND
17.08Z...FOLLOWED BY LIFR CEILINGS (~400 FEET) DEVELOPING BETWEEN
17.10Z AND 17.12Z. UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN PASSING
OVER THE REGION BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY...WITH NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. ALL OF THE
TAF SITES WILL SEE A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY
MORNING THROUGH NOON...SO IT IS DURING THIS TIME FRAME AVIATORS CAN
EXPECT PREVAILING IFR VISIBILITIES (~2SM) DUE TO MODERATE RAIN WITH
CEILINGS REMAINING IN THE LIFR CATEGORY. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE IN
THE AFTERNOON AS THE RAIN MOVES EAST...WITH A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
REMAINING...CEILINGS IMPROVING TO MVFR CONDITIONS (~1500 FEET)
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH VFR VISIBILITIES. /22

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015/

..FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY...
..SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH OVERNIGHT...

SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND FRIDAY)...CURRENTLY LEADING EDGE OF LOW-
LEVEL WEDGE IS ENTRENCHED FROM WILCOX COUNTY TO CONECUH COUNTY TO
COVINGTON COUNTY IN SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND HAS NOT MOVED MUCH IN PAST
FEW HOURS. REGIONAL KINEMATICS ARE CURRENTLY SUCH THAT MID- AND
UPPER LEVEL HIGHLY DIFFLUENT AND DIVERGENT FLOW WITH COMPENSATING
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS PLAYING A LARGE ROLE IN ENHANCING LOCAL
ASCENT VIA DIFFERENTIAL DIVERGENCE THIS AFTERNOON. THE
AFOREMENTIONED WEDGE IS SITUATED RIGHT IN THE MIX AND MOISTURE FLUX
CONVERGENCE IS AIDING TO INCREASE LOWER LEVEL AVAILABLE WATER VAPOR CONTENT
LOCALLY ALONG THE BOUNDARY. SBCAPES ARE RANGING 1500-200 J/KG INVOF.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN INITIATED AND PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE HAS INCREASED. THIS TREND CONTINUES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH LOCALES NORTH OF THE I- 10
CORRIDOR...RECEIVING THE GREATEST THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
INTO THE EVENING. ONCE PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS IT WILL MOVE TO THE
NORTH AWAY FROM THE COAST. AT THE SAME TIME...LATEST HRRR IS
BEGINNING TO SUGGEST THAT A CURRENT AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER SW LA WILL FURTHER EXPAND AND MOVE INTO THE REGION AFTER THE
FIRST ABOVE MENTIONED AREA. SO COVERAGE WILL BE ENHANCED OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE OVERNIGHT...RAIN CHANCES WILL BE GREATEST NORTH OF I-10
THIS EVENING (BUT DO NOT DISCOUNT INDIVIDUAL THUNDERSTORM CELLS WITH
VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG THE COASTAL STRIP). OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE
IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S... EXCEPT LOWER 60S NORTH OF HIGHWAY 84 AND
EAST OF I-65 WHERE THE WEDGE HAS SETTLED.

AS A JET STREAK MOVES AROUND THE BASE OF A POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL LOW
CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...DOWNSTREAM
RIDGING BUILDS OVER OUR AREA IN THE WAKE OF TODAY`S S/WAVE
DEPARTURE. FAVORABLE UPWARD KINEMATIC FORCING DIMINISHES. DESPITE A
LACK OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY TOMORROW...THE LOCAL ATMOSPHERE REMAINS
SATURATED AND MOIST ADIABATIC AND THE ABSOLUTE VALUE OF DEEP LAYER
WATER VAPOR CONTENT CHANGES VERY LITTLE WITH TIME. IN FACT THE THE
WATER VAPOR MAGNITUDE IN THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN REMAINS NEAR
HISTORICAL VALUES ACCORDING TO THE NAEFS ENS./CFSR 30 YR CLIMATOLOGY
(WHICH HAS PANNED OUT WELL THIS WHOLE WEEK WHEN COMPARED TO ACTUAL
SOUNDING OBSERVATIONS). ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL EXIST TOMORROW
AFTERNOON BUT PRECIPITATION MAY FOLLOW MORE OF A DIURNAL PATTERN
GIVEN THE DEVELOPMENT OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
..POSSIBLY INDUCING FLASH FLOODING...WILL ONCE AGAIN FORM FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGHS TOMORROW UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 DEPENDING ON EXACT
DISTRIBUTION OF ACTUAL PRECIPITATION.  /23 JMM

LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) A WARM FRONT ALONG OUR
COAST OVERNIGHT FRIDAY WILL KEEP LOW...OVERCAST CLOUD COVER...OCNL
LIGHT RAIN AND PERHAPS FOG OVER OUR COASTAL COUNTIES FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. SATURDAY THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD
AND MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. DURING THE
AFTERNOON LAYER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ACROSS THE REGION ARE NEAR
RECORD LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...A NEGATIVE TILT UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO PROPAGATE INTO THE AREA. 0 TO 1 KM HELICITIES
CLIMB TO 150 METERS SQUARED PER SECOND SQUARED AND CAPES EXPECTED
ABOVE THOUSAND J/KG DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WEST
OF I-65 LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING...WITH POTENTIAL
DECREASING BUT STILL EXISTING AS STORMS PROPAGATE EASTWARD OVER
CENTRAL ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE DURING THE NIGHT.
AS WELL THESE STORMS SHOULD BE HEAVY RAINFALL PRODUCERS...CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING ONE OR MORE INCHES OF RAINFALL IN AN HOURS TIME...SO
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING REMAINS A POSSIBILITY.

BY SUNDAY THE MAIN MOISTURES AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD BUT WE STILL REMAIN
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...THUS THUNDERSTORMS AND RAIN SHOWERS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE BUT LESS INTENSE AND WITH LESS RAINFALL.

MONDAY MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
FINALLY PUSH THROUGH THE REGION BRINGING WITH IT A DRIER WEST TO
NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW AND AN END TO THE PRECIPITATION. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL THEN SHIELD THE REGION AND KEEP US DRY THROUGH
THURSDAY. / 08 JW

MARINE...A LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. A LIGHT TO MODERATE
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT.
PERIODS OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THESE STORMS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
FREQUENT CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS. SEAS WILL BE
HIGHER IN AND AROUND THUNDERSTORMS. /08 JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      67  80  66  78  68 /  70  80  50  80  60
PENSACOLA   68  77  68  79  70 /  70  80  40  70  70
DESTIN      68  75  70  77  70 /  70  80  20  70  70
EVERGREEN   65  78  64  78  69 /  80  80  30  80  70
WAYNESBORO  64  80  66  79  64 /  80  80  50  80  60
CAMDEN      64  78  64  77  68 /  80  70  30  80  70
CRESTVIEW   64  78  67  79  68 /  80  70  30  70  70

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR ESCAMBIA-LOWER
     BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-UPPER MOBILE-WASHINGTON.

FL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR COASTAL ESCAMBIA-
     COASTAL OKALOOSA-COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND ESCAMBIA-INLAND
     OKALOOSA-INLAND SANTA ROSA.

MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR GEORGE-GREENE-PERRY-
     STONE-WAYNE.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 170004 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
704 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.AVIATION...
17.00Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF CYCLE...
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS SOUTH MOBILE COUNTY...MOBILE BAY AND THE
GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE NORTH EARLY THIS EVENING...SO WILL START
OFF THE KMOB AND KBFM TAF SITES WITH -RA AND UNRESTRICTED
VISIBILITIES. CEILINGS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO LOWER WITH THE APPROACHING
LIGHT RAIN...BUT REMAIN AT VFR CRITERIA. IT WILL REMAIN RAIN-FREE AT
KPNS THROUGH 17.05Z...WITH LIGHT RAIN THEN MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO ALONG WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES (~4 SM) AND MVFR
CEILINGS (~1500 FEET). LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL THEN INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY AROUND MIDNIGHT ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WITH IFR
CEILINGS (~700 FEET) EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 17.06Z AND
17.08Z...FOLLOWED BY LIFR CEILINGS (~400 FEET) DEVELOPING BETWEEN
17.10Z AND 17.12Z. UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN PASSING
OVER THE REGION BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY...WITH NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. ALL OF THE
TAF SITES WILL SEE A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY
MORNING THROUGH NOON...SO IT IS DURING THIS TIME FRAME AVIATORS CAN
EXPECT PREVAILING IFR VISIBILITIES (~2SM) DUE TO MODERATE RAIN WITH
CEILINGS REMAINING IN THE LIFR CATEGORY. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE IN
THE AFTERNOON AS THE RAIN MOVES EAST...WITH A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
REMAINING...CEILINGS IMPROVING TO MVFR CONDITIONS (~1500 FEET)
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH VFR VISIBILITIES. /22

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015/

..FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY...
..SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH OVERNIGHT...

SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND FRIDAY)...CURRENTLY LEADING EDGE OF LOW-
LEVEL WEDGE IS ENTRENCHED FROM WILCOX COUNTY TO CONECUH COUNTY TO
COVINGTON COUNTY IN SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND HAS NOT MOVED MUCH IN PAST
FEW HOURS. REGIONAL KINEMATICS ARE CURRENTLY SUCH THAT MID- AND
UPPER LEVEL HIGHLY DIFFLUENT AND DIVERGENT FLOW WITH COMPENSATING
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS PLAYING A LARGE ROLE IN ENHANCING LOCAL
ASCENT VIA DIFFERENTIAL DIVERGENCE THIS AFTERNOON. THE
AFOREMENTIONED WEDGE IS SITUATED RIGHT IN THE MIX AND MOISTURE FLUX
CONVERGENCE IS AIDING TO INCREASE LOWER LEVEL AVAILABLE WATER VAPOR CONTENT
LOCALLY ALONG THE BOUNDARY. SBCAPES ARE RANGING 1500-200 J/KG INVOF.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN INITIATED AND PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE HAS INCREASED. THIS TREND CONTINUES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH LOCALES NORTH OF THE I- 10
CORRIDOR...RECEIVING THE GREATEST THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
INTO THE EVENING. ONCE PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS IT WILL MOVE TO THE
NORTH AWAY FROM THE COAST. AT THE SAME TIME...LATEST HRRR IS
BEGINNING TO SUGGEST THAT A CURRENT AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER SW LA WILL FURTHER EXPAND AND MOVE INTO THE REGION AFTER THE
FIRST ABOVE MENTIONED AREA. SO COVERAGE WILL BE ENHANCED OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE OVERNIGHT...RAIN CHANCES WILL BE GREATEST NORTH OF I-10
THIS EVENING (BUT DO NOT DISCOUNT INDIVIDUAL THUNDERSTORM CELLS WITH
VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG THE COASTAL STRIP). OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE
IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S... EXCEPT LOWER 60S NORTH OF HIGHWAY 84 AND
EAST OF I-65 WHERE THE WEDGE HAS SETTLED.

AS A JET STREAK MOVES AROUND THE BASE OF A POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL LOW
CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...DOWNSTREAM
RIDGING BUILDS OVER OUR AREA IN THE WAKE OF TODAY`S S/WAVE
DEPARTURE. FAVORABLE UPWARD KINEMATIC FORCING DIMINISHES. DESPITE A
LACK OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY TOMORROW...THE LOCAL ATMOSPHERE REMAINS
SATURATED AND MOIST ADIABATIC AND THE ABSOLUTE VALUE OF DEEP LAYER
WATER VAPOR CONTENT CHANGES VERY LITTLE WITH TIME. IN FACT THE THE
WATER VAPOR MAGNITUDE IN THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN REMAINS NEAR
HISTORICAL VALUES ACCORDING TO THE NAEFS ENS./CFSR 30 YR CLIMATOLOGY
(WHICH HAS PANNED OUT WELL THIS WHOLE WEEK WHEN COMPARED TO ACTUAL
SOUNDING OBSERVATIONS). ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL EXIST TOMORROW
AFTERNOON BUT PRECIPITATION MAY FOLLOW MORE OF A DIURNAL PATTERN
GIVEN THE DEVELOPMENT OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
..POSSIBLY INDUCING FLASH FLOODING...WILL ONCE AGAIN FORM FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGHS TOMORROW UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 DEPENDING ON EXACT
DISTRIBUTION OF ACTUAL PRECIPITATION.  /23 JMM

LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) A WARM FRONT ALONG OUR
COAST OVERNIGHT FRIDAY WILL KEEP LOW...OVERCAST CLOUD COVER...OCNL
LIGHT RAIN AND PERHAPS FOG OVER OUR COASTAL COUNTIES FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. SATURDAY THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD
AND MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. DURING THE
AFTERNOON LAYER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ACROSS THE REGION ARE NEAR
RECORD LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...A NEGATIVE TILT UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO PROPAGATE INTO THE AREA. 0 TO 1 KM HELICITIES
CLIMB TO 150 METERS SQUARED PER SECOND SQUARED AND CAPES EXPECTED
ABOVE THOUSAND J/KG DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WEST
OF I-65 LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING...WITH POTENTIAL
DECREASING BUT STILL EXISTING AS STORMS PROPAGATE EASTWARD OVER
CENTRAL ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE DURING THE NIGHT.
AS WELL THESE STORMS SHOULD BE HEAVY RAINFALL PRODUCERS...CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING ONE OR MORE INCHES OF RAINFALL IN AN HOURS TIME...SO
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING REMAINS A POSSIBILITY.

BY SUNDAY THE MAIN MOISTURES AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD BUT WE STILL REMAIN
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...THUS THUNDERSTORMS AND RAIN SHOWERS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE BUT LESS INTENSE AND WITH LESS RAINFALL.

MONDAY MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
FINALLY PUSH THROUGH THE REGION BRINGING WITH IT A DRIER WEST TO
NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW AND AN END TO THE PRECIPITATION. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL THEN SHIELD THE REGION AND KEEP US DRY THROUGH
THURSDAY. / 08 JW

MARINE...A LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. A LIGHT TO MODERATE
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT.
PERIODS OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THESE STORMS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
FREQUENT CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS. SEAS WILL BE
HIGHER IN AND AROUND THUNDERSTORMS. /08 JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      67  80  66  78  68 /  70  80  50  80  60
PENSACOLA   68  77  68  79  70 /  70  80  40  70  70
DESTIN      68  75  70  77  70 /  70  80  20  70  70
EVERGREEN   65  78  64  78  69 /  80  80  30  80  70
WAYNESBORO  64  80  66  79  64 /  80  80  50  80  60
CAMDEN      64  78  64  77  68 /  80  70  30  80  70
CRESTVIEW   64  78  67  79  68 /  80  70  30  70  70

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR ESCAMBIA-LOWER
     BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-UPPER MOBILE-WASHINGTON.

FL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR COASTAL ESCAMBIA-
     COASTAL OKALOOSA-COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND ESCAMBIA-INLAND
     OKALOOSA-INLAND SANTA ROSA.

MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR GEORGE-GREENE-PERRY-
     STONE-WAYNE.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 170004 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
704 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.AVIATION...
17.00Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF CYCLE...
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS SOUTH MOBILE COUNTY...MOBILE BAY AND THE
GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE NORTH EARLY THIS EVENING...SO WILL START
OFF THE KMOB AND KBFM TAF SITES WITH -RA AND UNRESTRICTED
VISIBILITIES. CEILINGS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO LOWER WITH THE APPROACHING
LIGHT RAIN...BUT REMAIN AT VFR CRITERIA. IT WILL REMAIN RAIN-FREE AT
KPNS THROUGH 17.05Z...WITH LIGHT RAIN THEN MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO ALONG WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES (~4 SM) AND MVFR
CEILINGS (~1500 FEET). LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL THEN INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY AROUND MIDNIGHT ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WITH IFR
CEILINGS (~700 FEET) EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 17.06Z AND
17.08Z...FOLLOWED BY LIFR CEILINGS (~400 FEET) DEVELOPING BETWEEN
17.10Z AND 17.12Z. UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN PASSING
OVER THE REGION BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY...WITH NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. ALL OF THE
TAF SITES WILL SEE A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY
MORNING THROUGH NOON...SO IT IS DURING THIS TIME FRAME AVIATORS CAN
EXPECT PREVAILING IFR VISIBILITIES (~2SM) DUE TO MODERATE RAIN WITH
CEILINGS REMAINING IN THE LIFR CATEGORY. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE IN
THE AFTERNOON AS THE RAIN MOVES EAST...WITH A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
REMAINING...CEILINGS IMPROVING TO MVFR CONDITIONS (~1500 FEET)
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH VFR VISIBILITIES. /22

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015/

..FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY...
..SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH OVERNIGHT...

SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND FRIDAY)...CURRENTLY LEADING EDGE OF LOW-
LEVEL WEDGE IS ENTRENCHED FROM WILCOX COUNTY TO CONECUH COUNTY TO
COVINGTON COUNTY IN SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND HAS NOT MOVED MUCH IN PAST
FEW HOURS. REGIONAL KINEMATICS ARE CURRENTLY SUCH THAT MID- AND
UPPER LEVEL HIGHLY DIFFLUENT AND DIVERGENT FLOW WITH COMPENSATING
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS PLAYING A LARGE ROLE IN ENHANCING LOCAL
ASCENT VIA DIFFERENTIAL DIVERGENCE THIS AFTERNOON. THE
AFOREMENTIONED WEDGE IS SITUATED RIGHT IN THE MIX AND MOISTURE FLUX
CONVERGENCE IS AIDING TO INCREASE LOWER LEVEL AVAILABLE WATER VAPOR CONTENT
LOCALLY ALONG THE BOUNDARY. SBCAPES ARE RANGING 1500-200 J/KG INVOF.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN INITIATED AND PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE HAS INCREASED. THIS TREND CONTINUES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH LOCALES NORTH OF THE I- 10
CORRIDOR...RECEIVING THE GREATEST THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
INTO THE EVENING. ONCE PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS IT WILL MOVE TO THE
NORTH AWAY FROM THE COAST. AT THE SAME TIME...LATEST HRRR IS
BEGINNING TO SUGGEST THAT A CURRENT AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER SW LA WILL FURTHER EXPAND AND MOVE INTO THE REGION AFTER THE
FIRST ABOVE MENTIONED AREA. SO COVERAGE WILL BE ENHANCED OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE OVERNIGHT...RAIN CHANCES WILL BE GREATEST NORTH OF I-10
THIS EVENING (BUT DO NOT DISCOUNT INDIVIDUAL THUNDERSTORM CELLS WITH
VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG THE COASTAL STRIP). OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE
IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S... EXCEPT LOWER 60S NORTH OF HIGHWAY 84 AND
EAST OF I-65 WHERE THE WEDGE HAS SETTLED.

AS A JET STREAK MOVES AROUND THE BASE OF A POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL LOW
CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...DOWNSTREAM
RIDGING BUILDS OVER OUR AREA IN THE WAKE OF TODAY`S S/WAVE
DEPARTURE. FAVORABLE UPWARD KINEMATIC FORCING DIMINISHES. DESPITE A
LACK OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY TOMORROW...THE LOCAL ATMOSPHERE REMAINS
SATURATED AND MOIST ADIABATIC AND THE ABSOLUTE VALUE OF DEEP LAYER
WATER VAPOR CONTENT CHANGES VERY LITTLE WITH TIME. IN FACT THE THE
WATER VAPOR MAGNITUDE IN THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN REMAINS NEAR
HISTORICAL VALUES ACCORDING TO THE NAEFS ENS./CFSR 30 YR CLIMATOLOGY
(WHICH HAS PANNED OUT WELL THIS WHOLE WEEK WHEN COMPARED TO ACTUAL
SOUNDING OBSERVATIONS). ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL EXIST TOMORROW
AFTERNOON BUT PRECIPITATION MAY FOLLOW MORE OF A DIURNAL PATTERN
GIVEN THE DEVELOPMENT OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
..POSSIBLY INDUCING FLASH FLOODING...WILL ONCE AGAIN FORM FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGHS TOMORROW UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 DEPENDING ON EXACT
DISTRIBUTION OF ACTUAL PRECIPITATION.  /23 JMM

LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) A WARM FRONT ALONG OUR
COAST OVERNIGHT FRIDAY WILL KEEP LOW...OVERCAST CLOUD COVER...OCNL
LIGHT RAIN AND PERHAPS FOG OVER OUR COASTAL COUNTIES FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. SATURDAY THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD
AND MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. DURING THE
AFTERNOON LAYER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ACROSS THE REGION ARE NEAR
RECORD LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...A NEGATIVE TILT UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO PROPAGATE INTO THE AREA. 0 TO 1 KM HELICITIES
CLIMB TO 150 METERS SQUARED PER SECOND SQUARED AND CAPES EXPECTED
ABOVE THOUSAND J/KG DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WEST
OF I-65 LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING...WITH POTENTIAL
DECREASING BUT STILL EXISTING AS STORMS PROPAGATE EASTWARD OVER
CENTRAL ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE DURING THE NIGHT.
AS WELL THESE STORMS SHOULD BE HEAVY RAINFALL PRODUCERS...CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING ONE OR MORE INCHES OF RAINFALL IN AN HOURS TIME...SO
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING REMAINS A POSSIBILITY.

BY SUNDAY THE MAIN MOISTURES AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD BUT WE STILL REMAIN
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...THUS THUNDERSTORMS AND RAIN SHOWERS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE BUT LESS INTENSE AND WITH LESS RAINFALL.

MONDAY MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
FINALLY PUSH THROUGH THE REGION BRINGING WITH IT A DRIER WEST TO
NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW AND AN END TO THE PRECIPITATION. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL THEN SHIELD THE REGION AND KEEP US DRY THROUGH
THURSDAY. / 08 JW

MARINE...A LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. A LIGHT TO MODERATE
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT.
PERIODS OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THESE STORMS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
FREQUENT CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS. SEAS WILL BE
HIGHER IN AND AROUND THUNDERSTORMS. /08 JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      67  80  66  78  68 /  70  80  50  80  60
PENSACOLA   68  77  68  79  70 /  70  80  40  70  70
DESTIN      68  75  70  77  70 /  70  80  20  70  70
EVERGREEN   65  78  64  78  69 /  80  80  30  80  70
WAYNESBORO  64  80  66  79  64 /  80  80  50  80  60
CAMDEN      64  78  64  77  68 /  80  70  30  80  70
CRESTVIEW   64  78  67  79  68 /  80  70  30  70  70

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR ESCAMBIA-LOWER
     BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-UPPER MOBILE-WASHINGTON.

FL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR COASTAL ESCAMBIA-
     COASTAL OKALOOSA-COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND ESCAMBIA-INLAND
     OKALOOSA-INLAND SANTA ROSA.

MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR GEORGE-GREENE-PERRY-
     STONE-WAYNE.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMOB 162105
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
405 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH OVERNIGHT...

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND FRIDAY)...CURRENTLY LEADING EDGE OF LOW-
LEVEL WEDGE IS ENTRENCHED FROM WILCOX COUNTY TO CONECUH COUNTY TO
COVINGTON COUNTY IN SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND HAS NOT MOVED MUCH IN PAST
FEW HOURS. REGIONAL KINEMATICS ARE CURRENTLY SUCH THAT MID- AND
UPPER LEVEL HIGHLY DIFFLUENT AND DIVERGENT FLOW WITH COMPENSATING
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS PLAYING A LARGE ROLE IN ENHANCING LOCAL
ASCENT VIA DIFFERENTIAL DIVERGENCE THIS AFTERNOON. THE
AFOREMENTIONED WEDGE IS SITUATED RIGHT IN THE MIX AND MOISTURE FLUX
CONVERGENCE IS AIDING TO INCREASE LOWER LEVEL AVAILABLE WATER VAPOR CONTENT
LOCALLY ALONG THE BOUNDARY. SBCAPES ARE RANGING 1500-200 J/KG INVOF.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN INITIATED AND PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE HAS INCREASED. THIS TREND CONTINUES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH LOCALES NORTH OF THE I- 10
CORRIDOR...RECEIVING THE GREATEST THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
INTO THE EVENING. ONCE PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS IT WILL MOVE TO THE
NORTH AWAY FROM THE COAST. AT THE SAME TIME...LATEST HRRR IS
BEGINNING TO SUGGEST THAT A CURRENT AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER SW LA WILL FURTHER EXPAND AND MOVE INTO THE REGION AFTER THE
FIRST ABOVE MENTIONED AREA. SO COVERAGE WILL BE ENHANCED OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE OVERNIGHT...RAIN CHANCES WILL BE GREATEST NORTH OF I-10
THIS EVENING (BUT DO NOT DISCOUNT INDIVIDUAL THUNDERSTORM CELLS WITH
VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG THE COASTAL STRIP). OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE
IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S... EXCEPT LOWER 60S NORTH OF HIGHWAY 84 AND
EAST OF I-65 WHERE THE WEDGE HAS SETTLED.

AS A JET STREAK MOVES AROUND THE BASE OF A POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL LOW
CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...DOWNSTREAM
RIDGING BUILDS OVER OUR AREA IN THE WAKE OF TODAY`S S/WAVE
DEPARTURE. FAVORABLE UPWARD KINEMATIC FORCING DIMINISHES. DESPITE A
LACK OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY TOMORROW...THE LOCAL ATMOSPHERE REMAINS
SATURATED AND MOIST ADIABATIC AND THE ABSOLUTE VALUE OF DEEP LAYER
WATER VAPOR CONTENT CHANGES VERY LITTLE WITH TIME. IN FACT THE THE
WATER VAPOR MAGNITUDE IN THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN REMAINS NEAR
HISTORICAL VALUES ACCORDING TO THE NAEFS ENS./CFSR 30 YR CLIMATOLOGY
(WHICH HAS PANNED OUT WELL THIS WHOLE WEEK WHEN COMPARED TO ACTUAL
SOUNDING OBSERVATIONS). ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL EXIST TOMORROW
AFTERNOON BUT PRECIPITATION MAY FOLLOW MORE OF A DIURNAL PATTERN
GIVEN THE DEVELOPMENT OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
...POSSIBLY INDUCING FLASH FLOODING...WILL ONCE AGAIN FORM FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGHS TOMORROW UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 DEPENDING ON EXACT
DISTRIBUTION OF ACTUAL PRECIPITATION.  /23 JMM



.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) A WARM FRONT ALONG OUR
COAST OVERNIGHT FRIDAY WILL KEEP LOW...OVERCAST CLOUD COVER...OCNL
LIGHT RAIN AND PERHAPS FOG OVER OUR COASTAL COUNTIES FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. SATURDAY THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD
AND MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. DURING THE
AFTERNOON LAYER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ACROSS THE REGION ARE NEAR
RECORD LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...A NEGATIVE TILT UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO PROPAGATE INTO THE AREA. 0 TO 1 KM HELICITIES
CLIMB TO 150 METERS SQUARED PER SECOND SQUARED AND CAPES EXPECTED
ABOVE THOUSAND J/KG DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WEST
OF I-65 LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING...WITH POTENTIAL
DECREASING BUT STILL EXISTING AS STORMS PROPAGATE EASTWARD OVER
CENTRAL ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE DURING THE NIGHT.
AS WELL THESE STORMS SHOULD BE HEAVY RAINFALL PRODUCERS...CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING ONE OR MORE INCHES OF RAINFALL IN AN HOURS TIME...SO
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING REMAINS A POSSIBILITY.

BY SUNDAY THE MAIN MOISTURES AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD BUT WE STILL REMAIN
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...THUS THUNDERSTORMS AND RAIN SHOWERS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE BUT LESS INTENSE AND WITH LESS RAINFALL.

MONDAY MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
FINALLY PUSH THROUGH THE REGION BRINGING WITH IT A DRIER WEST TO
NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW AND AN END TO THE PRECIPITATION. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL THEN SHIELD THE REGION AND KEEP US DRY THROUGH
THURSDAY. / 08 JW


&&

.AVIATION...16.18 UTC ISSUANCE...MOSTLY MVFR CIGS THROUGH 17.12Z.
COULD SEE BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CIGS MOSTLY IN HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED
WITH SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 8
KNOTS THROUGH EARLY FRI MORNING. LIFT ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL CREATE A PERIOD OF DRIZZLE AND FOG AFTER
17.09 UTC WHICH MAY CREATE A PERIOD OF IFR TO LIFR CIGS AND MVFR
VSBYS THROUGH LATE FRIDAY MORNING AT THE TAF SITES (WHICH WILL ALL
BE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE). BEHIND THE FEATURE AND FURTHER TO THE
NORTHEAST AROUND (TO INCLUDE K79J, KGZH, KPRN)...CIGS MAY ALSO
APPROACH IFR/LIFR DURING THIS SAME PERIOD. /23 JMM


&&

.MARINE...A LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. A LIGHT TO MODERATE
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT.
PERIODS OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THESE STORMS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
FREQUENT CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS. SEAS WILL BE
HIGHER IN AND AROUND THUNDERSTORMS. /08 JW



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      67  80  66  78  68 /  70  80  50  80  60
PENSACOLA   68  77  68  79  70 /  70  80  40  70  70
DESTIN      68  75  70  77  70 /  70  80  20  70  70
EVERGREEN   65  78  64  78  69 /  80  80  30  80  70
WAYNESBORO  64  80  66  79  64 /  80  80  50  80  60
CAMDEN      64  78  64  77  68 /  80  70  30  80  70
CRESTVIEW   64  78  67  79  68 /  80  70  30  70  70

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR ESCAMBIA-LOWER
     BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-UPPER MOBILE-WASHINGTON.

FL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR COASTAL ESCAMBIA-
     COASTAL OKALOOSA-COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND ESCAMBIA-INLAND
     OKALOOSA-INLAND SANTA ROSA.

MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR GEORGE-GREENE-PERRY-
     STONE-WAYNE.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 162105
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
405 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH OVERNIGHT...

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND FRIDAY)...CURRENTLY LEADING EDGE OF LOW-
LEVEL WEDGE IS ENTRENCHED FROM WILCOX COUNTY TO CONECUH COUNTY TO
COVINGTON COUNTY IN SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND HAS NOT MOVED MUCH IN PAST
FEW HOURS. REGIONAL KINEMATICS ARE CURRENTLY SUCH THAT MID- AND
UPPER LEVEL HIGHLY DIFFLUENT AND DIVERGENT FLOW WITH COMPENSATING
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS PLAYING A LARGE ROLE IN ENHANCING LOCAL
ASCENT VIA DIFFERENTIAL DIVERGENCE THIS AFTERNOON. THE
AFOREMENTIONED WEDGE IS SITUATED RIGHT IN THE MIX AND MOISTURE FLUX
CONVERGENCE IS AIDING TO INCREASE LOWER LEVEL AVAILABLE WATER VAPOR CONTENT
LOCALLY ALONG THE BOUNDARY. SBCAPES ARE RANGING 1500-200 J/KG INVOF.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN INITIATED AND PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE HAS INCREASED. THIS TREND CONTINUES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH LOCALES NORTH OF THE I- 10
CORRIDOR...RECEIVING THE GREATEST THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
INTO THE EVENING. ONCE PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS IT WILL MOVE TO THE
NORTH AWAY FROM THE COAST. AT THE SAME TIME...LATEST HRRR IS
BEGINNING TO SUGGEST THAT A CURRENT AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER SW LA WILL FURTHER EXPAND AND MOVE INTO THE REGION AFTER THE
FIRST ABOVE MENTIONED AREA. SO COVERAGE WILL BE ENHANCED OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE OVERNIGHT...RAIN CHANCES WILL BE GREATEST NORTH OF I-10
THIS EVENING (BUT DO NOT DISCOUNT INDIVIDUAL THUNDERSTORM CELLS WITH
VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG THE COASTAL STRIP). OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE
IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S... EXCEPT LOWER 60S NORTH OF HIGHWAY 84 AND
EAST OF I-65 WHERE THE WEDGE HAS SETTLED.

AS A JET STREAK MOVES AROUND THE BASE OF A POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL LOW
CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...DOWNSTREAM
RIDGING BUILDS OVER OUR AREA IN THE WAKE OF TODAY`S S/WAVE
DEPARTURE. FAVORABLE UPWARD KINEMATIC FORCING DIMINISHES. DESPITE A
LACK OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY TOMORROW...THE LOCAL ATMOSPHERE REMAINS
SATURATED AND MOIST ADIABATIC AND THE ABSOLUTE VALUE OF DEEP LAYER
WATER VAPOR CONTENT CHANGES VERY LITTLE WITH TIME. IN FACT THE THE
WATER VAPOR MAGNITUDE IN THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN REMAINS NEAR
HISTORICAL VALUES ACCORDING TO THE NAEFS ENS./CFSR 30 YR CLIMATOLOGY
(WHICH HAS PANNED OUT WELL THIS WHOLE WEEK WHEN COMPARED TO ACTUAL
SOUNDING OBSERVATIONS). ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL EXIST TOMORROW
AFTERNOON BUT PRECIPITATION MAY FOLLOW MORE OF A DIURNAL PATTERN
GIVEN THE DEVELOPMENT OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
...POSSIBLY INDUCING FLASH FLOODING...WILL ONCE AGAIN FORM FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGHS TOMORROW UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 DEPENDING ON EXACT
DISTRIBUTION OF ACTUAL PRECIPITATION.  /23 JMM



.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) A WARM FRONT ALONG OUR
COAST OVERNIGHT FRIDAY WILL KEEP LOW...OVERCAST CLOUD COVER...OCNL
LIGHT RAIN AND PERHAPS FOG OVER OUR COASTAL COUNTIES FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. SATURDAY THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD
AND MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. DURING THE
AFTERNOON LAYER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ACROSS THE REGION ARE NEAR
RECORD LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...A NEGATIVE TILT UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO PROPAGATE INTO THE AREA. 0 TO 1 KM HELICITIES
CLIMB TO 150 METERS SQUARED PER SECOND SQUARED AND CAPES EXPECTED
ABOVE THOUSAND J/KG DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WEST
OF I-65 LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING...WITH POTENTIAL
DECREASING BUT STILL EXISTING AS STORMS PROPAGATE EASTWARD OVER
CENTRAL ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE DURING THE NIGHT.
AS WELL THESE STORMS SHOULD BE HEAVY RAINFALL PRODUCERS...CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING ONE OR MORE INCHES OF RAINFALL IN AN HOURS TIME...SO
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING REMAINS A POSSIBILITY.

BY SUNDAY THE MAIN MOISTURES AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD BUT WE STILL REMAIN
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...THUS THUNDERSTORMS AND RAIN SHOWERS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE BUT LESS INTENSE AND WITH LESS RAINFALL.

MONDAY MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
FINALLY PUSH THROUGH THE REGION BRINGING WITH IT A DRIER WEST TO
NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW AND AN END TO THE PRECIPITATION. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL THEN SHIELD THE REGION AND KEEP US DRY THROUGH
THURSDAY. / 08 JW


&&

.AVIATION...16.18 UTC ISSUANCE...MOSTLY MVFR CIGS THROUGH 17.12Z.
COULD SEE BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CIGS MOSTLY IN HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED
WITH SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 8
KNOTS THROUGH EARLY FRI MORNING. LIFT ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL CREATE A PERIOD OF DRIZZLE AND FOG AFTER
17.09 UTC WHICH MAY CREATE A PERIOD OF IFR TO LIFR CIGS AND MVFR
VSBYS THROUGH LATE FRIDAY MORNING AT THE TAF SITES (WHICH WILL ALL
BE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE). BEHIND THE FEATURE AND FURTHER TO THE
NORTHEAST AROUND (TO INCLUDE K79J, KGZH, KPRN)...CIGS MAY ALSO
APPROACH IFR/LIFR DURING THIS SAME PERIOD. /23 JMM


&&

.MARINE...A LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. A LIGHT TO MODERATE
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT.
PERIODS OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THESE STORMS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
FREQUENT CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS. SEAS WILL BE
HIGHER IN AND AROUND THUNDERSTORMS. /08 JW



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      67  80  66  78  68 /  70  80  50  80  60
PENSACOLA   68  77  68  79  70 /  70  80  40  70  70
DESTIN      68  75  70  77  70 /  70  80  20  70  70
EVERGREEN   65  78  64  78  69 /  80  80  30  80  70
WAYNESBORO  64  80  66  79  64 /  80  80  50  80  60
CAMDEN      64  78  64  77  68 /  80  70  30  80  70
CRESTVIEW   64  78  67  79  68 /  80  70  30  70  70

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR ESCAMBIA-LOWER
     BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-UPPER MOBILE-WASHINGTON.

FL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR COASTAL ESCAMBIA-
     COASTAL OKALOOSA-COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND ESCAMBIA-INLAND
     OKALOOSA-INLAND SANTA ROSA.

MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR GEORGE-GREENE-PERRY-
     STONE-WAYNE.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMOB 162105
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
405 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH OVERNIGHT...

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND FRIDAY)...CURRENTLY LEADING EDGE OF LOW-
LEVEL WEDGE IS ENTRENCHED FROM WILCOX COUNTY TO CONECUH COUNTY TO
COVINGTON COUNTY IN SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND HAS NOT MOVED MUCH IN PAST
FEW HOURS. REGIONAL KINEMATICS ARE CURRENTLY SUCH THAT MID- AND
UPPER LEVEL HIGHLY DIFFLUENT AND DIVERGENT FLOW WITH COMPENSATING
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS PLAYING A LARGE ROLE IN ENHANCING LOCAL
ASCENT VIA DIFFERENTIAL DIVERGENCE THIS AFTERNOON. THE
AFOREMENTIONED WEDGE IS SITUATED RIGHT IN THE MIX AND MOISTURE FLUX
CONVERGENCE IS AIDING TO INCREASE LOWER LEVEL AVAILABLE WATER VAPOR CONTENT
LOCALLY ALONG THE BOUNDARY. SBCAPES ARE RANGING 1500-200 J/KG INVOF.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN INITIATED AND PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE HAS INCREASED. THIS TREND CONTINUES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH LOCALES NORTH OF THE I- 10
CORRIDOR...RECEIVING THE GREATEST THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
INTO THE EVENING. ONCE PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS IT WILL MOVE TO THE
NORTH AWAY FROM THE COAST. AT THE SAME TIME...LATEST HRRR IS
BEGINNING TO SUGGEST THAT A CURRENT AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER SW LA WILL FURTHER EXPAND AND MOVE INTO THE REGION AFTER THE
FIRST ABOVE MENTIONED AREA. SO COVERAGE WILL BE ENHANCED OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE OVERNIGHT...RAIN CHANCES WILL BE GREATEST NORTH OF I-10
THIS EVENING (BUT DO NOT DISCOUNT INDIVIDUAL THUNDERSTORM CELLS WITH
VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG THE COASTAL STRIP). OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE
IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S... EXCEPT LOWER 60S NORTH OF HIGHWAY 84 AND
EAST OF I-65 WHERE THE WEDGE HAS SETTLED.

AS A JET STREAK MOVES AROUND THE BASE OF A POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL LOW
CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...DOWNSTREAM
RIDGING BUILDS OVER OUR AREA IN THE WAKE OF TODAY`S S/WAVE
DEPARTURE. FAVORABLE UPWARD KINEMATIC FORCING DIMINISHES. DESPITE A
LACK OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY TOMORROW...THE LOCAL ATMOSPHERE REMAINS
SATURATED AND MOIST ADIABATIC AND THE ABSOLUTE VALUE OF DEEP LAYER
WATER VAPOR CONTENT CHANGES VERY LITTLE WITH TIME. IN FACT THE THE
WATER VAPOR MAGNITUDE IN THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN REMAINS NEAR
HISTORICAL VALUES ACCORDING TO THE NAEFS ENS./CFSR 30 YR CLIMATOLOGY
(WHICH HAS PANNED OUT WELL THIS WHOLE WEEK WHEN COMPARED TO ACTUAL
SOUNDING OBSERVATIONS). ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL EXIST TOMORROW
AFTERNOON BUT PRECIPITATION MAY FOLLOW MORE OF A DIURNAL PATTERN
GIVEN THE DEVELOPMENT OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
...POSSIBLY INDUCING FLASH FLOODING...WILL ONCE AGAIN FORM FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGHS TOMORROW UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 DEPENDING ON EXACT
DISTRIBUTION OF ACTUAL PRECIPITATION.  /23 JMM



.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) A WARM FRONT ALONG OUR
COAST OVERNIGHT FRIDAY WILL KEEP LOW...OVERCAST CLOUD COVER...OCNL
LIGHT RAIN AND PERHAPS FOG OVER OUR COASTAL COUNTIES FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. SATURDAY THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD
AND MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. DURING THE
AFTERNOON LAYER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ACROSS THE REGION ARE NEAR
RECORD LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...A NEGATIVE TILT UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO PROPAGATE INTO THE AREA. 0 TO 1 KM HELICITIES
CLIMB TO 150 METERS SQUARED PER SECOND SQUARED AND CAPES EXPECTED
ABOVE THOUSAND J/KG DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WEST
OF I-65 LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING...WITH POTENTIAL
DECREASING BUT STILL EXISTING AS STORMS PROPAGATE EASTWARD OVER
CENTRAL ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE DURING THE NIGHT.
AS WELL THESE STORMS SHOULD BE HEAVY RAINFALL PRODUCERS...CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING ONE OR MORE INCHES OF RAINFALL IN AN HOURS TIME...SO
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING REMAINS A POSSIBILITY.

BY SUNDAY THE MAIN MOISTURES AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD BUT WE STILL REMAIN
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...THUS THUNDERSTORMS AND RAIN SHOWERS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE BUT LESS INTENSE AND WITH LESS RAINFALL.

MONDAY MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
FINALLY PUSH THROUGH THE REGION BRINGING WITH IT A DRIER WEST TO
NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW AND AN END TO THE PRECIPITATION. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL THEN SHIELD THE REGION AND KEEP US DRY THROUGH
THURSDAY. / 08 JW


&&

.AVIATION...16.18 UTC ISSUANCE...MOSTLY MVFR CIGS THROUGH 17.12Z.
COULD SEE BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CIGS MOSTLY IN HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED
WITH SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 8
KNOTS THROUGH EARLY FRI MORNING. LIFT ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL CREATE A PERIOD OF DRIZZLE AND FOG AFTER
17.09 UTC WHICH MAY CREATE A PERIOD OF IFR TO LIFR CIGS AND MVFR
VSBYS THROUGH LATE FRIDAY MORNING AT THE TAF SITES (WHICH WILL ALL
BE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE). BEHIND THE FEATURE AND FURTHER TO THE
NORTHEAST AROUND (TO INCLUDE K79J, KGZH, KPRN)...CIGS MAY ALSO
APPROACH IFR/LIFR DURING THIS SAME PERIOD. /23 JMM


&&

.MARINE...A LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. A LIGHT TO MODERATE
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT.
PERIODS OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THESE STORMS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
FREQUENT CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS. SEAS WILL BE
HIGHER IN AND AROUND THUNDERSTORMS. /08 JW



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      67  80  66  78  68 /  70  80  50  80  60
PENSACOLA   68  77  68  79  70 /  70  80  40  70  70
DESTIN      68  75  70  77  70 /  70  80  20  70  70
EVERGREEN   65  78  64  78  69 /  80  80  30  80  70
WAYNESBORO  64  80  66  79  64 /  80  80  50  80  60
CAMDEN      64  78  64  77  68 /  80  70  30  80  70
CRESTVIEW   64  78  67  79  68 /  80  70  30  70  70

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR ESCAMBIA-LOWER
     BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-UPPER MOBILE-WASHINGTON.

FL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR COASTAL ESCAMBIA-
     COASTAL OKALOOSA-COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND ESCAMBIA-INLAND
     OKALOOSA-INLAND SANTA ROSA.

MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR GEORGE-GREENE-PERRY-
     STONE-WAYNE.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 162105
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
405 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH OVERNIGHT...

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND FRIDAY)...CURRENTLY LEADING EDGE OF LOW-
LEVEL WEDGE IS ENTRENCHED FROM WILCOX COUNTY TO CONECUH COUNTY TO
COVINGTON COUNTY IN SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND HAS NOT MOVED MUCH IN PAST
FEW HOURS. REGIONAL KINEMATICS ARE CURRENTLY SUCH THAT MID- AND
UPPER LEVEL HIGHLY DIFFLUENT AND DIVERGENT FLOW WITH COMPENSATING
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS PLAYING A LARGE ROLE IN ENHANCING LOCAL
ASCENT VIA DIFFERENTIAL DIVERGENCE THIS AFTERNOON. THE
AFOREMENTIONED WEDGE IS SITUATED RIGHT IN THE MIX AND MOISTURE FLUX
CONVERGENCE IS AIDING TO INCREASE LOWER LEVEL AVAILABLE WATER VAPOR CONTENT
LOCALLY ALONG THE BOUNDARY. SBCAPES ARE RANGING 1500-200 J/KG INVOF.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN INITIATED AND PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE HAS INCREASED. THIS TREND CONTINUES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH LOCALES NORTH OF THE I- 10
CORRIDOR...RECEIVING THE GREATEST THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
INTO THE EVENING. ONCE PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS IT WILL MOVE TO THE
NORTH AWAY FROM THE COAST. AT THE SAME TIME...LATEST HRRR IS
BEGINNING TO SUGGEST THAT A CURRENT AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER SW LA WILL FURTHER EXPAND AND MOVE INTO THE REGION AFTER THE
FIRST ABOVE MENTIONED AREA. SO COVERAGE WILL BE ENHANCED OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE OVERNIGHT...RAIN CHANCES WILL BE GREATEST NORTH OF I-10
THIS EVENING (BUT DO NOT DISCOUNT INDIVIDUAL THUNDERSTORM CELLS WITH
VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG THE COASTAL STRIP). OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE
IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S... EXCEPT LOWER 60S NORTH OF HIGHWAY 84 AND
EAST OF I-65 WHERE THE WEDGE HAS SETTLED.

AS A JET STREAK MOVES AROUND THE BASE OF A POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL LOW
CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...DOWNSTREAM
RIDGING BUILDS OVER OUR AREA IN THE WAKE OF TODAY`S S/WAVE
DEPARTURE. FAVORABLE UPWARD KINEMATIC FORCING DIMINISHES. DESPITE A
LACK OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY TOMORROW...THE LOCAL ATMOSPHERE REMAINS
SATURATED AND MOIST ADIABATIC AND THE ABSOLUTE VALUE OF DEEP LAYER
WATER VAPOR CONTENT CHANGES VERY LITTLE WITH TIME. IN FACT THE THE
WATER VAPOR MAGNITUDE IN THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN REMAINS NEAR
HISTORICAL VALUES ACCORDING TO THE NAEFS ENS./CFSR 30 YR CLIMATOLOGY
(WHICH HAS PANNED OUT WELL THIS WHOLE WEEK WHEN COMPARED TO ACTUAL
SOUNDING OBSERVATIONS). ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL EXIST TOMORROW
AFTERNOON BUT PRECIPITATION MAY FOLLOW MORE OF A DIURNAL PATTERN
GIVEN THE DEVELOPMENT OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
...POSSIBLY INDUCING FLASH FLOODING...WILL ONCE AGAIN FORM FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGHS TOMORROW UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 DEPENDING ON EXACT
DISTRIBUTION OF ACTUAL PRECIPITATION.  /23 JMM



.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) A WARM FRONT ALONG OUR
COAST OVERNIGHT FRIDAY WILL KEEP LOW...OVERCAST CLOUD COVER...OCNL
LIGHT RAIN AND PERHAPS FOG OVER OUR COASTAL COUNTIES FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. SATURDAY THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD
AND MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. DURING THE
AFTERNOON LAYER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ACROSS THE REGION ARE NEAR
RECORD LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...A NEGATIVE TILT UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO PROPAGATE INTO THE AREA. 0 TO 1 KM HELICITIES
CLIMB TO 150 METERS SQUARED PER SECOND SQUARED AND CAPES EXPECTED
ABOVE THOUSAND J/KG DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WEST
OF I-65 LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING...WITH POTENTIAL
DECREASING BUT STILL EXISTING AS STORMS PROPAGATE EASTWARD OVER
CENTRAL ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE DURING THE NIGHT.
AS WELL THESE STORMS SHOULD BE HEAVY RAINFALL PRODUCERS...CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING ONE OR MORE INCHES OF RAINFALL IN AN HOURS TIME...SO
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING REMAINS A POSSIBILITY.

BY SUNDAY THE MAIN MOISTURES AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD BUT WE STILL REMAIN
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...THUS THUNDERSTORMS AND RAIN SHOWERS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE BUT LESS INTENSE AND WITH LESS RAINFALL.

MONDAY MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
FINALLY PUSH THROUGH THE REGION BRINGING WITH IT A DRIER WEST TO
NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW AND AN END TO THE PRECIPITATION. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL THEN SHIELD THE REGION AND KEEP US DRY THROUGH
THURSDAY. / 08 JW


&&

.AVIATION...16.18 UTC ISSUANCE...MOSTLY MVFR CIGS THROUGH 17.12Z.
COULD SEE BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CIGS MOSTLY IN HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED
WITH SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 8
KNOTS THROUGH EARLY FRI MORNING. LIFT ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL CREATE A PERIOD OF DRIZZLE AND FOG AFTER
17.09 UTC WHICH MAY CREATE A PERIOD OF IFR TO LIFR CIGS AND MVFR
VSBYS THROUGH LATE FRIDAY MORNING AT THE TAF SITES (WHICH WILL ALL
BE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE). BEHIND THE FEATURE AND FURTHER TO THE
NORTHEAST AROUND (TO INCLUDE K79J, KGZH, KPRN)...CIGS MAY ALSO
APPROACH IFR/LIFR DURING THIS SAME PERIOD. /23 JMM


&&

.MARINE...A LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. A LIGHT TO MODERATE
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT.
PERIODS OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THESE STORMS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
FREQUENT CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS. SEAS WILL BE
HIGHER IN AND AROUND THUNDERSTORMS. /08 JW



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      67  80  66  78  68 /  70  80  50  80  60
PENSACOLA   68  77  68  79  70 /  70  80  40  70  70
DESTIN      68  75  70  77  70 /  70  80  20  70  70
EVERGREEN   65  78  64  78  69 /  80  80  30  80  70
WAYNESBORO  64  80  66  79  64 /  80  80  50  80  60
CAMDEN      64  78  64  77  68 /  80  70  30  80  70
CRESTVIEW   64  78  67  79  68 /  80  70  30  70  70

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR ESCAMBIA-LOWER
     BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-UPPER MOBILE-WASHINGTON.

FL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR COASTAL ESCAMBIA-
     COASTAL OKALOOSA-COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND ESCAMBIA-INLAND
     OKALOOSA-INLAND SANTA ROSA.

MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR GEORGE-GREENE-PERRY-
     STONE-WAYNE.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMOB 161734 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1234 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.AVIATION...
16.18 UTC ISSUANCE...MOSTLY MVFR CIGS THROUGH 17.12Z. COULD SEE
BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CIGS MOSTLY IN HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH SOME
OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 8
KNOTS THROUGH EARLY FRI MORNING.

A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHERN ALABAMA WILL CONTINUE MOVING TO
THE SOUTHWEST...APPROACHING COASTAL ALABAMA AND THE NW FLORIDA
PANHANDLE TODAY. LIFT ALONG ITS LEADING EDGE WILL CREATE A PERIOD OF
DRIZZLE AND FOG AFTER 17.09 UTC WHICH MAY CREATE A PERIOD OF IFR TO
LIFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS THROUGH LATE FRIDAY MORNING AT THE TAF SITES
(WHICH WILL ALL BE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE). BEHIND THE FEATURE AND
FURTHER TO THE NORTHEAST AROUND (TO INCLUDE K79J, KGZH, KPRN)...CIGS
MAY ALSO APPROACH IFR/LIFR DURING THIS SAME PERIOD. /23 JMM

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015/

..BE PREPARED FOR ISOLATED FLOODING THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...

MESOSCALE UPDATE...VERY COMPLEX FORECAST TODAY. FIRST...WILL LEAVE
CATEGORICAL POPS...IT IS GOING TO RAIN MOST AREAS GIVEN PATTERN AND
MAGNITUDE OF INGREDIENTS SUPPORTIVE OF PRECIPITATION. THERE ARE TWO
DISTINCT FEATURES IN THE OBSERVED DATA THIS MORNING. FIRST THERE IS AN
AREA OF ONGOING PRECIPITATION OVER SE LA. SECONDLY...THERE IS A
SHORTWAVE LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MS.
THE LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS THE LATTER BECOMING DOMINANT. THIS SHOULD
ACT TO DESTABILIZE LAPSE RATES AND HELP TO POOL THE MOISTURE JUST
ENOUGH SO THAT MAIN DEEP CONVECTIVE INITIATION TAKES PLACE MORE
INLAND VERSUS CLOSER TO THE COAST. THE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE SE LA
REALLY DISSIPATING AND EVAPORATING WITH TIME AS IT APPROACHES THIS
AFTERNOON. AM LEERY ABOUT REDUCING RAINFALL AMOUNTS TOO MUCH ALONG
THE COAST DUE TO COLD POOL/BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS. IN SUMMARY LATEST
THINKING IS THAT HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL FALL ALONG AND NORTH OF
I-10 THIS AFTERNOON AND PROPAGATE INLAND WITH TIME. WILL JUST HAVE TO
WATCH IT AND SEE. AS WE SEE IT NOW...AREAS NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR
STAND THE GREATEST CHANCE OF SEEING FLOODING THIS AFTERNOON.

LATEST SFC OBS SHOW ANOTHER COMPLICATING FACTOR THAT WILL LINGER IN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THAT IS THE APPALACHIAN LOW-LEVEL WEDGE. IT IS
CURRENTLY OBSERVED TO HAVE ALREADY MOVED INTO OUR NE-MOST COUNTIES
(I.E., CRENSHAW...COVINGTON AND BUTLER) AND IS PROPAGATING SWWD.
FROM THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL HELP SQUEEZE THE WARM SECTOR FURTHER
FROM THE `EAST`...GIVEN APPROACHING S/WAVE FROM THE `WEST.` THIS WILL
HAVE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED BECAUSE IT IS STRONG. IT WILL AFFECT
DISTRIBUTION OF PRECIPITATION IN THE NEAR TERM AS WELL AS TEMPS AND
WINDS.

REGARDLESS...MOST AREAS IN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA REMAIN WITH
THE HIGHEST ANTECEDENT SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS. ANY QUICK BURST
DOWNPOURS WILL AGGRAVATE STREET FLOODING QUICKLY (I.E., JUST UNDER
1"/H) AND ANY MORE THAN THAT WE WILL BE RIGHT BACK IN AREAL
FLOOD/FLASH FLOOD WARNING TERRITORY QUICKLY (DEPENDING UPON THE
SITUATION).

NO CHANGES TO ZONES AT THE MOMENT.

/23 JMM

MARINE...WINDS TO BE 5 TO 10 KNOTS...CLOSER TO 10 KNOTS LATER THIS
AFTENOON. DID BUMP SEAS UP 1 FOOT ON AVERAGE BECAUSE DEEP CONVECTION
WILL CREATE LOCALIZED HIGHER WAVES THAT HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO AVERAGE
OUT FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THE THIS AFTERNOON PERIOD. /23 JMM

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 459 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015/

.EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL CONTINUES THE NEXT FEW DAYS...
.POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR AREAL FLOODING...
.SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY...

SHORT TERM [TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT]...DEEP UPPER LOW PRESSURE CENTER
OVER THE LOWER ROCKIES WILL CONTINUE TO DIG AND DRIFT EASTWARD
THROUGH TONIGHT LEADING TO A CONTINUED SERIES OF WEAK TO MODERATE
MID LEVEL IMPULSES EJECTING ENE FROM LOWER AND CENTRAL TEXAS TO THE
CENTRAL GULF STATES THROUGH TONIGHT. WITH DEEP MOISTURE STILL IN
PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE LOWER MS RIVER AND CENTRAL GULF REGION...EXPECT
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
BEGIN AFFECTING MOST AREAS IN THE CWFA THIS MORNING BUILDING IN
COVERAGE THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT THEN DIMINISHING SLOWLY THROUGH EARLY
FRI MORNING. THE HEAVIEST PRECIP LOOKS TO OCCUR OVER THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE CWFA LATER TODAY...SPREADING EASTWARD THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND PRECIP IN THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT BELIEVE DAYTIME TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN 2 TO 3 DEGREES
COOLER THAN THE PREDICTED MOS RESULTING IN ANOTHER DAY OF WEAK
SEABREEZE CIRCULATIONS DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. LATEST
MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW PWATS BETWEEN 1.8 TO 2.0 INCHES FOR
MOST AREAS COMBINED WITH MARGINAL SFC BASED INSTABILITY AND SHEAR...
RESULTING IN A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON CONTINUING
THROUGH THE EARLY TO MID EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE VERY HEAVY
RAIN...GUSTY STRAIGHT LINE WINDS...AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING. ISOLATED CASE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL CAN`T BE
RULED OUT ALSO. WITH ANTECEDENT SOIL CONDITIONS STILL RATHER
SATURATED ACROSS THE LOWER HALF OF THE CWFA...WE WILL STILL KEEP THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS. AS FOR TEMPS...WITH
PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND PRECIP AROUND WE WILL LEAN COOLER THAN THE
CURRENT MAV FOR HIGHS TODAY AND A TAD HIGHER FOR LOWS TONIGHT. HIGHS
TODAY WILL CLIMB TO THE MID TO UPPER 70S FOR ALL AREAS IN THE
CWFA...FOLLOWED BY LOWS MOSTLY IN THE MID 60S FOR ALL INLAND AREAS
AND THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. 32/EE

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...16.00Z GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
THAT THE WELL PRONOUNCED CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MOVES VERY
LITTLE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TO CLOSE OUT THE
WEEK. DOWNSTREAM...AMPLIFIED HIGH LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW LOOKS TO
REMAIN QUITE ACTIVE WITH A SERIES OF MID LEVEL IMPULSES CONTINUING TO
PASS EAST ACROSS THE GULF COAST IN THE DIFFLUENT FLOW PATTERN ALOFT.
TIMING OF THESE AND THE SUBSEQUENT POSITION/TIMING/PROGRESSION OF
HEAVIER RAINS PROVE TO BE THE MOST CHALLENGING AND WILL BE MONITORED
IN THE VERY NEAR TERM TIME FRAMES. WILL ALSO WATCH THE PROGRESSION OF
ANY SURFACE BASED MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES SET DOWN BY CONVECTION...WHICH
WILL LIKELY AID IN ENHANCING ASCENT. VERY LITTLE CHANGE NOTED IN THE
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WHICH LOOKS TO REMAIN AT UNSEASONABLY HIGH
LEVELS (PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGING FROM 1.5 TO 1.70 INCHES).
THUS...WILL MAINTAIN THE LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ON
FRIDAY...WHICH WILL AGAIN BE LIKELY EFFICIENT HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS.
THIS ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR THOSE AREAS THAT ARE IMPACTED BY BETTER
ORGANIZED SHOWERS/STORMS THAT MOVE REPEATEDLY OVER THE SAME AREAS.
TAKE NOTE...WITH ANTECEDENT SOIL MOISTURE LEVELS BEING HIGH FROM
RECENT EPISODES OF HEAVY RAIN...WILL NOT TAKE MUCH FOR ADDITIONAL
HEAVY DOWNPOURS TO LEAD TO RUNOFF AND AREAL FLOODING PROBLEMS. FLASH
FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. DAYTIME HIGHS ON
FRIDAY IN THE MID/UPPER 70S.

AS THE HIGH LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY...THE BEST DEEP LAYER
ASCENT FOR ORGANIZED SHOWERS AND STORMS WITHIN A STRONGLY DIFFLUENT
FLOW ALOFT...LOOKS TO BECOME POSITIONED FROM EAST TEXAS INTO THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA FRIDAY NIGHT. THUS...WILL HAVE A
LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS/STORMS POSITIONED MORE TO THE WEST OVER SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI/INTERIOR SOUTHWEST ALABAMA FRIDAY NIGHT. LOWER CHANCES
MORE TO THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT...UNDER AXIS OF DOWNSTREAM UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING. OVERNIGHT LOWS MID 60S INTERIOR TO NEAR 70 CLOSER TO
AREA BEACHES. /10

LONG TERM [SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...THE UPPER SYSTEM BEGINS TO
OPEN UP...PHASE WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM AND EJECT ACROSS THE PLAINS
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE HIGH LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST REMAINS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND LIKELY ACTIVE AS A
SERIES OF MID LEVEL IMPULSES CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE CHANGES LITTLE...SO CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/STORMS REMAIN ELEVATED ON THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOME OF THE
RAINS LOCALLY HEAVY...RESULTING IN POTENTIAL FLOODING OF LOWER LYING
AREAS SUBJECT TO POOR DRAINAGE OF EXCESSIVE AMOUNTS OF STORM WATER.

FOR SPECIFIC INFORMATION ON EXPECTED RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS...TIMING AND
IMPACTS...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE/PENSACOLA WEBSITE
AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MOB/

THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS AS WELL ON SATURDAY AS
LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILES BEGIN TO INCREASE AND VEER AS A SUBTROPICAL
LOW LEVEL JET DIVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PART OF TROUGH. AS THE SYSTEM
TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT FOR A TIME DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION WILL LIKELY STRENGTHEN...AS RESULTANT UPPER-LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE INCREASES ACROSS OUR REGION. THUS...SOME POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE STORMS EXISTS ON SATURDAY...LOOKING TO MOSTLY AFFECT
THE NORTHWESTERN TIER OF ZONES. THE CAVEAT WILL BE THE ONGOING
PRECEDING WET PATTERN WHICH MAY REDUCE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY. MORE
SPECIFICS ON POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL ON SATURDAY WILL
COME ON LATER FORECASTS AS THE MAIN PLAYERS IN THE VERY NEAR TERM
WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR AREAL FLOODING.

THE 15.00Z GLOBAL SPECTRAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT RAIN CHANCES WILL
TREND LOWER BY MONDAY AS SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY PIVOTS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST...BRINGING A FRONTAL ZONE THROUGH THE AREA. LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF RAIN FORECAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. LITTLE CHANGE IN DAYTIME
HIGHS DURING THE OUTLOOK. COOLER LOWS...INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S
INTERIOR BOTH TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY MORNINGS AS SURFACE HIGH SINKS INTO
THE SOUTHERN US. /10

AVIATION...
16.12Z ISSUANCE...MOSTLY MVFR CIGS THROUGH 17.12Z. COULD SEE BRIEF
PERIODS OF IFR CIGS MOSTLY IN HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH SOME OF THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT 5 TO 8 KNOTS
THROUGH EARLY FRI MORNING. 32/EE

MARINE...A LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE
MARINE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT THEN SHIFT MOSTLY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND
SLOWLY BUILD OVER THE WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
TO FORM AND MOVE EASTWARD AS THE FRONT NEARS FROM THE WEST. BY SAT
SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG MOSTLY ACCOMPANIED BY
GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. ISOLATED CASES
OF DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER NEAR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. A MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW IS
EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. A DRIER WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF NEXT
WEEK. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      78  66  78  66  77 / 100  60  70  50  80
PENSACOLA   76  68  77  68  78 / 100  80  70  30  70
DESTIN      78  69  75  70  78 / 100  80  60  10  70
EVERGREEN   75  65  79  64  80 / 100  80  70  30  80
WAYNESBORO  76  64  79  66  77 /  90  60  70  60  80
CAMDEN      75  64  79  64  79 /  90  70  70  40  80
CRESTVIEW   79  66  77  67  81 / 100  80  70  20  70

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR ESCAMBIA-LOWER
     BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-UPPER MOBILE-WASHINGTON.

FL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL ESCAMBIA-
     COASTAL OKALOOSA-COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND ESCAMBIA-INLAND
     OKALOOSA-INLAND SANTA ROSA.

MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR GEORGE-GREENE-PERRY-
     STONE-WAYNE.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMOB 161734 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1234 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.AVIATION...
16.18 UTC ISSUANCE...MOSTLY MVFR CIGS THROUGH 17.12Z. COULD SEE
BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CIGS MOSTLY IN HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH SOME
OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 8
KNOTS THROUGH EARLY FRI MORNING.

A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHERN ALABAMA WILL CONTINUE MOVING TO
THE SOUTHWEST...APPROACHING COASTAL ALABAMA AND THE NW FLORIDA
PANHANDLE TODAY. LIFT ALONG ITS LEADING EDGE WILL CREATE A PERIOD OF
DRIZZLE AND FOG AFTER 17.09 UTC WHICH MAY CREATE A PERIOD OF IFR TO
LIFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS THROUGH LATE FRIDAY MORNING AT THE TAF SITES
(WHICH WILL ALL BE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE). BEHIND THE FEATURE AND
FURTHER TO THE NORTHEAST AROUND (TO INCLUDE K79J, KGZH, KPRN)...CIGS
MAY ALSO APPROACH IFR/LIFR DURING THIS SAME PERIOD. /23 JMM

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015/

..BE PREPARED FOR ISOLATED FLOODING THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...

MESOSCALE UPDATE...VERY COMPLEX FORECAST TODAY. FIRST...WILL LEAVE
CATEGORICAL POPS...IT IS GOING TO RAIN MOST AREAS GIVEN PATTERN AND
MAGNITUDE OF INGREDIENTS SUPPORTIVE OF PRECIPITATION. THERE ARE TWO
DISTINCT FEATURES IN THE OBSERVED DATA THIS MORNING. FIRST THERE IS AN
AREA OF ONGOING PRECIPITATION OVER SE LA. SECONDLY...THERE IS A
SHORTWAVE LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MS.
THE LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS THE LATTER BECOMING DOMINANT. THIS SHOULD
ACT TO DESTABILIZE LAPSE RATES AND HELP TO POOL THE MOISTURE JUST
ENOUGH SO THAT MAIN DEEP CONVECTIVE INITIATION TAKES PLACE MORE
INLAND VERSUS CLOSER TO THE COAST. THE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE SE LA
REALLY DISSIPATING AND EVAPORATING WITH TIME AS IT APPROACHES THIS
AFTERNOON. AM LEERY ABOUT REDUCING RAINFALL AMOUNTS TOO MUCH ALONG
THE COAST DUE TO COLD POOL/BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS. IN SUMMARY LATEST
THINKING IS THAT HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL FALL ALONG AND NORTH OF
I-10 THIS AFTERNOON AND PROPAGATE INLAND WITH TIME. WILL JUST HAVE TO
WATCH IT AND SEE. AS WE SEE IT NOW...AREAS NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR
STAND THE GREATEST CHANCE OF SEEING FLOODING THIS AFTERNOON.

LATEST SFC OBS SHOW ANOTHER COMPLICATING FACTOR THAT WILL LINGER IN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THAT IS THE APPALACHIAN LOW-LEVEL WEDGE. IT IS
CURRENTLY OBSERVED TO HAVE ALREADY MOVED INTO OUR NE-MOST COUNTIES
(I.E., CRENSHAW...COVINGTON AND BUTLER) AND IS PROPAGATING SWWD.
FROM THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL HELP SQUEEZE THE WARM SECTOR FURTHER
FROM THE `EAST`...GIVEN APPROACHING S/WAVE FROM THE `WEST.` THIS WILL
HAVE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED BECAUSE IT IS STRONG. IT WILL AFFECT
DISTRIBUTION OF PRECIPITATION IN THE NEAR TERM AS WELL AS TEMPS AND
WINDS.

REGARDLESS...MOST AREAS IN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA REMAIN WITH
THE HIGHEST ANTECEDENT SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS. ANY QUICK BURST
DOWNPOURS WILL AGGRAVATE STREET FLOODING QUICKLY (I.E., JUST UNDER
1"/H) AND ANY MORE THAN THAT WE WILL BE RIGHT BACK IN AREAL
FLOOD/FLASH FLOOD WARNING TERRITORY QUICKLY (DEPENDING UPON THE
SITUATION).

NO CHANGES TO ZONES AT THE MOMENT.

/23 JMM

MARINE...WINDS TO BE 5 TO 10 KNOTS...CLOSER TO 10 KNOTS LATER THIS
AFTENOON. DID BUMP SEAS UP 1 FOOT ON AVERAGE BECAUSE DEEP CONVECTION
WILL CREATE LOCALIZED HIGHER WAVES THAT HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO AVERAGE
OUT FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THE THIS AFTERNOON PERIOD. /23 JMM

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 459 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015/

.EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL CONTINUES THE NEXT FEW DAYS...
.POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR AREAL FLOODING...
.SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY...

SHORT TERM [TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT]...DEEP UPPER LOW PRESSURE CENTER
OVER THE LOWER ROCKIES WILL CONTINUE TO DIG AND DRIFT EASTWARD
THROUGH TONIGHT LEADING TO A CONTINUED SERIES OF WEAK TO MODERATE
MID LEVEL IMPULSES EJECTING ENE FROM LOWER AND CENTRAL TEXAS TO THE
CENTRAL GULF STATES THROUGH TONIGHT. WITH DEEP MOISTURE STILL IN
PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE LOWER MS RIVER AND CENTRAL GULF REGION...EXPECT
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
BEGIN AFFECTING MOST AREAS IN THE CWFA THIS MORNING BUILDING IN
COVERAGE THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT THEN DIMINISHING SLOWLY THROUGH EARLY
FRI MORNING. THE HEAVIEST PRECIP LOOKS TO OCCUR OVER THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE CWFA LATER TODAY...SPREADING EASTWARD THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND PRECIP IN THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT BELIEVE DAYTIME TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN 2 TO 3 DEGREES
COOLER THAN THE PREDICTED MOS RESULTING IN ANOTHER DAY OF WEAK
SEABREEZE CIRCULATIONS DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. LATEST
MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW PWATS BETWEEN 1.8 TO 2.0 INCHES FOR
MOST AREAS COMBINED WITH MARGINAL SFC BASED INSTABILITY AND SHEAR...
RESULTING IN A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON CONTINUING
THROUGH THE EARLY TO MID EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE VERY HEAVY
RAIN...GUSTY STRAIGHT LINE WINDS...AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING. ISOLATED CASE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL CAN`T BE
RULED OUT ALSO. WITH ANTECEDENT SOIL CONDITIONS STILL RATHER
SATURATED ACROSS THE LOWER HALF OF THE CWFA...WE WILL STILL KEEP THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS. AS FOR TEMPS...WITH
PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND PRECIP AROUND WE WILL LEAN COOLER THAN THE
CURRENT MAV FOR HIGHS TODAY AND A TAD HIGHER FOR LOWS TONIGHT. HIGHS
TODAY WILL CLIMB TO THE MID TO UPPER 70S FOR ALL AREAS IN THE
CWFA...FOLLOWED BY LOWS MOSTLY IN THE MID 60S FOR ALL INLAND AREAS
AND THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. 32/EE

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...16.00Z GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
THAT THE WELL PRONOUNCED CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MOVES VERY
LITTLE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TO CLOSE OUT THE
WEEK. DOWNSTREAM...AMPLIFIED HIGH LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW LOOKS TO
REMAIN QUITE ACTIVE WITH A SERIES OF MID LEVEL IMPULSES CONTINUING TO
PASS EAST ACROSS THE GULF COAST IN THE DIFFLUENT FLOW PATTERN ALOFT.
TIMING OF THESE AND THE SUBSEQUENT POSITION/TIMING/PROGRESSION OF
HEAVIER RAINS PROVE TO BE THE MOST CHALLENGING AND WILL BE MONITORED
IN THE VERY NEAR TERM TIME FRAMES. WILL ALSO WATCH THE PROGRESSION OF
ANY SURFACE BASED MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES SET DOWN BY CONVECTION...WHICH
WILL LIKELY AID IN ENHANCING ASCENT. VERY LITTLE CHANGE NOTED IN THE
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WHICH LOOKS TO REMAIN AT UNSEASONABLY HIGH
LEVELS (PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGING FROM 1.5 TO 1.70 INCHES).
THUS...WILL MAINTAIN THE LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ON
FRIDAY...WHICH WILL AGAIN BE LIKELY EFFICIENT HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS.
THIS ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR THOSE AREAS THAT ARE IMPACTED BY BETTER
ORGANIZED SHOWERS/STORMS THAT MOVE REPEATEDLY OVER THE SAME AREAS.
TAKE NOTE...WITH ANTECEDENT SOIL MOISTURE LEVELS BEING HIGH FROM
RECENT EPISODES OF HEAVY RAIN...WILL NOT TAKE MUCH FOR ADDITIONAL
HEAVY DOWNPOURS TO LEAD TO RUNOFF AND AREAL FLOODING PROBLEMS. FLASH
FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. DAYTIME HIGHS ON
FRIDAY IN THE MID/UPPER 70S.

AS THE HIGH LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY...THE BEST DEEP LAYER
ASCENT FOR ORGANIZED SHOWERS AND STORMS WITHIN A STRONGLY DIFFLUENT
FLOW ALOFT...LOOKS TO BECOME POSITIONED FROM EAST TEXAS INTO THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA FRIDAY NIGHT. THUS...WILL HAVE A
LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS/STORMS POSITIONED MORE TO THE WEST OVER SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI/INTERIOR SOUTHWEST ALABAMA FRIDAY NIGHT. LOWER CHANCES
MORE TO THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT...UNDER AXIS OF DOWNSTREAM UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING. OVERNIGHT LOWS MID 60S INTERIOR TO NEAR 70 CLOSER TO
AREA BEACHES. /10

LONG TERM [SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...THE UPPER SYSTEM BEGINS TO
OPEN UP...PHASE WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM AND EJECT ACROSS THE PLAINS
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE HIGH LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST REMAINS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND LIKELY ACTIVE AS A
SERIES OF MID LEVEL IMPULSES CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE CHANGES LITTLE...SO CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/STORMS REMAIN ELEVATED ON THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOME OF THE
RAINS LOCALLY HEAVY...RESULTING IN POTENTIAL FLOODING OF LOWER LYING
AREAS SUBJECT TO POOR DRAINAGE OF EXCESSIVE AMOUNTS OF STORM WATER.

FOR SPECIFIC INFORMATION ON EXPECTED RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS...TIMING AND
IMPACTS...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE/PENSACOLA WEBSITE
AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MOB/

THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS AS WELL ON SATURDAY AS
LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILES BEGIN TO INCREASE AND VEER AS A SUBTROPICAL
LOW LEVEL JET DIVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PART OF TROUGH. AS THE SYSTEM
TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT FOR A TIME DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION WILL LIKELY STRENGTHEN...AS RESULTANT UPPER-LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE INCREASES ACROSS OUR REGION. THUS...SOME POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE STORMS EXISTS ON SATURDAY...LOOKING TO MOSTLY AFFECT
THE NORTHWESTERN TIER OF ZONES. THE CAVEAT WILL BE THE ONGOING
PRECEDING WET PATTERN WHICH MAY REDUCE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY. MORE
SPECIFICS ON POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL ON SATURDAY WILL
COME ON LATER FORECASTS AS THE MAIN PLAYERS IN THE VERY NEAR TERM
WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR AREAL FLOODING.

THE 15.00Z GLOBAL SPECTRAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT RAIN CHANCES WILL
TREND LOWER BY MONDAY AS SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY PIVOTS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST...BRINGING A FRONTAL ZONE THROUGH THE AREA. LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF RAIN FORECAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. LITTLE CHANGE IN DAYTIME
HIGHS DURING THE OUTLOOK. COOLER LOWS...INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S
INTERIOR BOTH TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY MORNINGS AS SURFACE HIGH SINKS INTO
THE SOUTHERN US. /10

AVIATION...
16.12Z ISSUANCE...MOSTLY MVFR CIGS THROUGH 17.12Z. COULD SEE BRIEF
PERIODS OF IFR CIGS MOSTLY IN HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH SOME OF THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT 5 TO 8 KNOTS
THROUGH EARLY FRI MORNING. 32/EE

MARINE...A LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE
MARINE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT THEN SHIFT MOSTLY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND
SLOWLY BUILD OVER THE WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
TO FORM AND MOVE EASTWARD AS THE FRONT NEARS FROM THE WEST. BY SAT
SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG MOSTLY ACCOMPANIED BY
GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. ISOLATED CASES
OF DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER NEAR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. A MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW IS
EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. A DRIER WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF NEXT
WEEK. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      78  66  78  66  77 / 100  60  70  50  80
PENSACOLA   76  68  77  68  78 / 100  80  70  30  70
DESTIN      78  69  75  70  78 / 100  80  60  10  70
EVERGREEN   75  65  79  64  80 / 100  80  70  30  80
WAYNESBORO  76  64  79  66  77 /  90  60  70  60  80
CAMDEN      75  64  79  64  79 /  90  70  70  40  80
CRESTVIEW   79  66  77  67  81 / 100  80  70  20  70

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR ESCAMBIA-LOWER
     BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-UPPER MOBILE-WASHINGTON.

FL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL ESCAMBIA-
     COASTAL OKALOOSA-COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND ESCAMBIA-INLAND
     OKALOOSA-INLAND SANTA ROSA.

MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR GEORGE-GREENE-PERRY-
     STONE-WAYNE.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 161734 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1234 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.AVIATION...
16.18 UTC ISSUANCE...MOSTLY MVFR CIGS THROUGH 17.12Z. COULD SEE
BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CIGS MOSTLY IN HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH SOME
OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 8
KNOTS THROUGH EARLY FRI MORNING.

A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHERN ALABAMA WILL CONTINUE MOVING TO
THE SOUTHWEST...APPROACHING COASTAL ALABAMA AND THE NW FLORIDA
PANHANDLE TODAY. LIFT ALONG ITS LEADING EDGE WILL CREATE A PERIOD OF
DRIZZLE AND FOG AFTER 17.09 UTC WHICH MAY CREATE A PERIOD OF IFR TO
LIFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS THROUGH LATE FRIDAY MORNING AT THE TAF SITES
(WHICH WILL ALL BE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE). BEHIND THE FEATURE AND
FURTHER TO THE NORTHEAST AROUND (TO INCLUDE K79J, KGZH, KPRN)...CIGS
MAY ALSO APPROACH IFR/LIFR DURING THIS SAME PERIOD. /23 JMM

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015/

..BE PREPARED FOR ISOLATED FLOODING THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...

MESOSCALE UPDATE...VERY COMPLEX FORECAST TODAY. FIRST...WILL LEAVE
CATEGORICAL POPS...IT IS GOING TO RAIN MOST AREAS GIVEN PATTERN AND
MAGNITUDE OF INGREDIENTS SUPPORTIVE OF PRECIPITATION. THERE ARE TWO
DISTINCT FEATURES IN THE OBSERVED DATA THIS MORNING. FIRST THERE IS AN
AREA OF ONGOING PRECIPITATION OVER SE LA. SECONDLY...THERE IS A
SHORTWAVE LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MS.
THE LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS THE LATTER BECOMING DOMINANT. THIS SHOULD
ACT TO DESTABILIZE LAPSE RATES AND HELP TO POOL THE MOISTURE JUST
ENOUGH SO THAT MAIN DEEP CONVECTIVE INITIATION TAKES PLACE MORE
INLAND VERSUS CLOSER TO THE COAST. THE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE SE LA
REALLY DISSIPATING AND EVAPORATING WITH TIME AS IT APPROACHES THIS
AFTERNOON. AM LEERY ABOUT REDUCING RAINFALL AMOUNTS TOO MUCH ALONG
THE COAST DUE TO COLD POOL/BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS. IN SUMMARY LATEST
THINKING IS THAT HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL FALL ALONG AND NORTH OF
I-10 THIS AFTERNOON AND PROPAGATE INLAND WITH TIME. WILL JUST HAVE TO
WATCH IT AND SEE. AS WE SEE IT NOW...AREAS NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR
STAND THE GREATEST CHANCE OF SEEING FLOODING THIS AFTERNOON.

LATEST SFC OBS SHOW ANOTHER COMPLICATING FACTOR THAT WILL LINGER IN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THAT IS THE APPALACHIAN LOW-LEVEL WEDGE. IT IS
CURRENTLY OBSERVED TO HAVE ALREADY MOVED INTO OUR NE-MOST COUNTIES
(I.E., CRENSHAW...COVINGTON AND BUTLER) AND IS PROPAGATING SWWD.
FROM THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL HELP SQUEEZE THE WARM SECTOR FURTHER
FROM THE `EAST`...GIVEN APPROACHING S/WAVE FROM THE `WEST.` THIS WILL
HAVE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED BECAUSE IT IS STRONG. IT WILL AFFECT
DISTRIBUTION OF PRECIPITATION IN THE NEAR TERM AS WELL AS TEMPS AND
WINDS.

REGARDLESS...MOST AREAS IN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA REMAIN WITH
THE HIGHEST ANTECEDENT SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS. ANY QUICK BURST
DOWNPOURS WILL AGGRAVATE STREET FLOODING QUICKLY (I.E., JUST UNDER
1"/H) AND ANY MORE THAN THAT WE WILL BE RIGHT BACK IN AREAL
FLOOD/FLASH FLOOD WARNING TERRITORY QUICKLY (DEPENDING UPON THE
SITUATION).

NO CHANGES TO ZONES AT THE MOMENT.

/23 JMM

MARINE...WINDS TO BE 5 TO 10 KNOTS...CLOSER TO 10 KNOTS LATER THIS
AFTENOON. DID BUMP SEAS UP 1 FOOT ON AVERAGE BECAUSE DEEP CONVECTION
WILL CREATE LOCALIZED HIGHER WAVES THAT HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO AVERAGE
OUT FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THE THIS AFTERNOON PERIOD. /23 JMM

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 459 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015/

.EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL CONTINUES THE NEXT FEW DAYS...
.POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR AREAL FLOODING...
.SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY...

SHORT TERM [TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT]...DEEP UPPER LOW PRESSURE CENTER
OVER THE LOWER ROCKIES WILL CONTINUE TO DIG AND DRIFT EASTWARD
THROUGH TONIGHT LEADING TO A CONTINUED SERIES OF WEAK TO MODERATE
MID LEVEL IMPULSES EJECTING ENE FROM LOWER AND CENTRAL TEXAS TO THE
CENTRAL GULF STATES THROUGH TONIGHT. WITH DEEP MOISTURE STILL IN
PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE LOWER MS RIVER AND CENTRAL GULF REGION...EXPECT
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
BEGIN AFFECTING MOST AREAS IN THE CWFA THIS MORNING BUILDING IN
COVERAGE THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT THEN DIMINISHING SLOWLY THROUGH EARLY
FRI MORNING. THE HEAVIEST PRECIP LOOKS TO OCCUR OVER THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE CWFA LATER TODAY...SPREADING EASTWARD THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND PRECIP IN THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT BELIEVE DAYTIME TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN 2 TO 3 DEGREES
COOLER THAN THE PREDICTED MOS RESULTING IN ANOTHER DAY OF WEAK
SEABREEZE CIRCULATIONS DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. LATEST
MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW PWATS BETWEEN 1.8 TO 2.0 INCHES FOR
MOST AREAS COMBINED WITH MARGINAL SFC BASED INSTABILITY AND SHEAR...
RESULTING IN A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON CONTINUING
THROUGH THE EARLY TO MID EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE VERY HEAVY
RAIN...GUSTY STRAIGHT LINE WINDS...AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING. ISOLATED CASE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL CAN`T BE
RULED OUT ALSO. WITH ANTECEDENT SOIL CONDITIONS STILL RATHER
SATURATED ACROSS THE LOWER HALF OF THE CWFA...WE WILL STILL KEEP THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS. AS FOR TEMPS...WITH
PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND PRECIP AROUND WE WILL LEAN COOLER THAN THE
CURRENT MAV FOR HIGHS TODAY AND A TAD HIGHER FOR LOWS TONIGHT. HIGHS
TODAY WILL CLIMB TO THE MID TO UPPER 70S FOR ALL AREAS IN THE
CWFA...FOLLOWED BY LOWS MOSTLY IN THE MID 60S FOR ALL INLAND AREAS
AND THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. 32/EE

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...16.00Z GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
THAT THE WELL PRONOUNCED CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MOVES VERY
LITTLE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TO CLOSE OUT THE
WEEK. DOWNSTREAM...AMPLIFIED HIGH LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW LOOKS TO
REMAIN QUITE ACTIVE WITH A SERIES OF MID LEVEL IMPULSES CONTINUING TO
PASS EAST ACROSS THE GULF COAST IN THE DIFFLUENT FLOW PATTERN ALOFT.
TIMING OF THESE AND THE SUBSEQUENT POSITION/TIMING/PROGRESSION OF
HEAVIER RAINS PROVE TO BE THE MOST CHALLENGING AND WILL BE MONITORED
IN THE VERY NEAR TERM TIME FRAMES. WILL ALSO WATCH THE PROGRESSION OF
ANY SURFACE BASED MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES SET DOWN BY CONVECTION...WHICH
WILL LIKELY AID IN ENHANCING ASCENT. VERY LITTLE CHANGE NOTED IN THE
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WHICH LOOKS TO REMAIN AT UNSEASONABLY HIGH
LEVELS (PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGING FROM 1.5 TO 1.70 INCHES).
THUS...WILL MAINTAIN THE LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ON
FRIDAY...WHICH WILL AGAIN BE LIKELY EFFICIENT HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS.
THIS ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR THOSE AREAS THAT ARE IMPACTED BY BETTER
ORGANIZED SHOWERS/STORMS THAT MOVE REPEATEDLY OVER THE SAME AREAS.
TAKE NOTE...WITH ANTECEDENT SOIL MOISTURE LEVELS BEING HIGH FROM
RECENT EPISODES OF HEAVY RAIN...WILL NOT TAKE MUCH FOR ADDITIONAL
HEAVY DOWNPOURS TO LEAD TO RUNOFF AND AREAL FLOODING PROBLEMS. FLASH
FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. DAYTIME HIGHS ON
FRIDAY IN THE MID/UPPER 70S.

AS THE HIGH LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY...THE BEST DEEP LAYER
ASCENT FOR ORGANIZED SHOWERS AND STORMS WITHIN A STRONGLY DIFFLUENT
FLOW ALOFT...LOOKS TO BECOME POSITIONED FROM EAST TEXAS INTO THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA FRIDAY NIGHT. THUS...WILL HAVE A
LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS/STORMS POSITIONED MORE TO THE WEST OVER SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI/INTERIOR SOUTHWEST ALABAMA FRIDAY NIGHT. LOWER CHANCES
MORE TO THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT...UNDER AXIS OF DOWNSTREAM UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING. OVERNIGHT LOWS MID 60S INTERIOR TO NEAR 70 CLOSER TO
AREA BEACHES. /10

LONG TERM [SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...THE UPPER SYSTEM BEGINS TO
OPEN UP...PHASE WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM AND EJECT ACROSS THE PLAINS
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE HIGH LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST REMAINS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND LIKELY ACTIVE AS A
SERIES OF MID LEVEL IMPULSES CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE CHANGES LITTLE...SO CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/STORMS REMAIN ELEVATED ON THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOME OF THE
RAINS LOCALLY HEAVY...RESULTING IN POTENTIAL FLOODING OF LOWER LYING
AREAS SUBJECT TO POOR DRAINAGE OF EXCESSIVE AMOUNTS OF STORM WATER.

FOR SPECIFIC INFORMATION ON EXPECTED RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS...TIMING AND
IMPACTS...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE/PENSACOLA WEBSITE
AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MOB/

THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS AS WELL ON SATURDAY AS
LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILES BEGIN TO INCREASE AND VEER AS A SUBTROPICAL
LOW LEVEL JET DIVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PART OF TROUGH. AS THE SYSTEM
TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT FOR A TIME DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION WILL LIKELY STRENGTHEN...AS RESULTANT UPPER-LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE INCREASES ACROSS OUR REGION. THUS...SOME POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE STORMS EXISTS ON SATURDAY...LOOKING TO MOSTLY AFFECT
THE NORTHWESTERN TIER OF ZONES. THE CAVEAT WILL BE THE ONGOING
PRECEDING WET PATTERN WHICH MAY REDUCE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY. MORE
SPECIFICS ON POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL ON SATURDAY WILL
COME ON LATER FORECASTS AS THE MAIN PLAYERS IN THE VERY NEAR TERM
WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR AREAL FLOODING.

THE 15.00Z GLOBAL SPECTRAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT RAIN CHANCES WILL
TREND LOWER BY MONDAY AS SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY PIVOTS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST...BRINGING A FRONTAL ZONE THROUGH THE AREA. LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF RAIN FORECAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. LITTLE CHANGE IN DAYTIME
HIGHS DURING THE OUTLOOK. COOLER LOWS...INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S
INTERIOR BOTH TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY MORNINGS AS SURFACE HIGH SINKS INTO
THE SOUTHERN US. /10

AVIATION...
16.12Z ISSUANCE...MOSTLY MVFR CIGS THROUGH 17.12Z. COULD SEE BRIEF
PERIODS OF IFR CIGS MOSTLY IN HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH SOME OF THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT 5 TO 8 KNOTS
THROUGH EARLY FRI MORNING. 32/EE

MARINE...A LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE
MARINE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT THEN SHIFT MOSTLY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND
SLOWLY BUILD OVER THE WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
TO FORM AND MOVE EASTWARD AS THE FRONT NEARS FROM THE WEST. BY SAT
SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG MOSTLY ACCOMPANIED BY
GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. ISOLATED CASES
OF DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER NEAR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. A MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW IS
EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. A DRIER WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF NEXT
WEEK. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      78  66  78  66  77 / 100  60  70  50  80
PENSACOLA   76  68  77  68  78 / 100  80  70  30  70
DESTIN      78  69  75  70  78 / 100  80  60  10  70
EVERGREEN   75  65  79  64  80 / 100  80  70  30  80
WAYNESBORO  76  64  79  66  77 /  90  60  70  60  80
CAMDEN      75  64  79  64  79 /  90  70  70  40  80
CRESTVIEW   79  66  77  67  81 / 100  80  70  20  70

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR ESCAMBIA-LOWER
     BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-UPPER MOBILE-WASHINGTON.

FL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL ESCAMBIA-
     COASTAL OKALOOSA-COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND ESCAMBIA-INLAND
     OKALOOSA-INLAND SANTA ROSA.

MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR GEORGE-GREENE-PERRY-
     STONE-WAYNE.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 161734 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1234 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.AVIATION...
16.18 UTC ISSUANCE...MOSTLY MVFR CIGS THROUGH 17.12Z. COULD SEE
BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CIGS MOSTLY IN HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH SOME
OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 8
KNOTS THROUGH EARLY FRI MORNING.

A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHERN ALABAMA WILL CONTINUE MOVING TO
THE SOUTHWEST...APPROACHING COASTAL ALABAMA AND THE NW FLORIDA
PANHANDLE TODAY. LIFT ALONG ITS LEADING EDGE WILL CREATE A PERIOD OF
DRIZZLE AND FOG AFTER 17.09 UTC WHICH MAY CREATE A PERIOD OF IFR TO
LIFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS THROUGH LATE FRIDAY MORNING AT THE TAF SITES
(WHICH WILL ALL BE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE). BEHIND THE FEATURE AND
FURTHER TO THE NORTHEAST AROUND (TO INCLUDE K79J, KGZH, KPRN)...CIGS
MAY ALSO APPROACH IFR/LIFR DURING THIS SAME PERIOD. /23 JMM

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015/

..BE PREPARED FOR ISOLATED FLOODING THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...

MESOSCALE UPDATE...VERY COMPLEX FORECAST TODAY. FIRST...WILL LEAVE
CATEGORICAL POPS...IT IS GOING TO RAIN MOST AREAS GIVEN PATTERN AND
MAGNITUDE OF INGREDIENTS SUPPORTIVE OF PRECIPITATION. THERE ARE TWO
DISTINCT FEATURES IN THE OBSERVED DATA THIS MORNING. FIRST THERE IS AN
AREA OF ONGOING PRECIPITATION OVER SE LA. SECONDLY...THERE IS A
SHORTWAVE LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MS.
THE LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS THE LATTER BECOMING DOMINANT. THIS SHOULD
ACT TO DESTABILIZE LAPSE RATES AND HELP TO POOL THE MOISTURE JUST
ENOUGH SO THAT MAIN DEEP CONVECTIVE INITIATION TAKES PLACE MORE
INLAND VERSUS CLOSER TO THE COAST. THE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE SE LA
REALLY DISSIPATING AND EVAPORATING WITH TIME AS IT APPROACHES THIS
AFTERNOON. AM LEERY ABOUT REDUCING RAINFALL AMOUNTS TOO MUCH ALONG
THE COAST DUE TO COLD POOL/BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS. IN SUMMARY LATEST
THINKING IS THAT HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL FALL ALONG AND NORTH OF
I-10 THIS AFTERNOON AND PROPAGATE INLAND WITH TIME. WILL JUST HAVE TO
WATCH IT AND SEE. AS WE SEE IT NOW...AREAS NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR
STAND THE GREATEST CHANCE OF SEEING FLOODING THIS AFTERNOON.

LATEST SFC OBS SHOW ANOTHER COMPLICATING FACTOR THAT WILL LINGER IN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THAT IS THE APPALACHIAN LOW-LEVEL WEDGE. IT IS
CURRENTLY OBSERVED TO HAVE ALREADY MOVED INTO OUR NE-MOST COUNTIES
(I.E., CRENSHAW...COVINGTON AND BUTLER) AND IS PROPAGATING SWWD.
FROM THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL HELP SQUEEZE THE WARM SECTOR FURTHER
FROM THE `EAST`...GIVEN APPROACHING S/WAVE FROM THE `WEST.` THIS WILL
HAVE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED BECAUSE IT IS STRONG. IT WILL AFFECT
DISTRIBUTION OF PRECIPITATION IN THE NEAR TERM AS WELL AS TEMPS AND
WINDS.

REGARDLESS...MOST AREAS IN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA REMAIN WITH
THE HIGHEST ANTECEDENT SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS. ANY QUICK BURST
DOWNPOURS WILL AGGRAVATE STREET FLOODING QUICKLY (I.E., JUST UNDER
1"/H) AND ANY MORE THAN THAT WE WILL BE RIGHT BACK IN AREAL
FLOOD/FLASH FLOOD WARNING TERRITORY QUICKLY (DEPENDING UPON THE
SITUATION).

NO CHANGES TO ZONES AT THE MOMENT.

/23 JMM

MARINE...WINDS TO BE 5 TO 10 KNOTS...CLOSER TO 10 KNOTS LATER THIS
AFTENOON. DID BUMP SEAS UP 1 FOOT ON AVERAGE BECAUSE DEEP CONVECTION
WILL CREATE LOCALIZED HIGHER WAVES THAT HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO AVERAGE
OUT FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THE THIS AFTERNOON PERIOD. /23 JMM

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 459 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015/

.EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL CONTINUES THE NEXT FEW DAYS...
.POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR AREAL FLOODING...
.SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY...

SHORT TERM [TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT]...DEEP UPPER LOW PRESSURE CENTER
OVER THE LOWER ROCKIES WILL CONTINUE TO DIG AND DRIFT EASTWARD
THROUGH TONIGHT LEADING TO A CONTINUED SERIES OF WEAK TO MODERATE
MID LEVEL IMPULSES EJECTING ENE FROM LOWER AND CENTRAL TEXAS TO THE
CENTRAL GULF STATES THROUGH TONIGHT. WITH DEEP MOISTURE STILL IN
PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE LOWER MS RIVER AND CENTRAL GULF REGION...EXPECT
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
BEGIN AFFECTING MOST AREAS IN THE CWFA THIS MORNING BUILDING IN
COVERAGE THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT THEN DIMINISHING SLOWLY THROUGH EARLY
FRI MORNING. THE HEAVIEST PRECIP LOOKS TO OCCUR OVER THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE CWFA LATER TODAY...SPREADING EASTWARD THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND PRECIP IN THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT BELIEVE DAYTIME TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN 2 TO 3 DEGREES
COOLER THAN THE PREDICTED MOS RESULTING IN ANOTHER DAY OF WEAK
SEABREEZE CIRCULATIONS DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. LATEST
MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW PWATS BETWEEN 1.8 TO 2.0 INCHES FOR
MOST AREAS COMBINED WITH MARGINAL SFC BASED INSTABILITY AND SHEAR...
RESULTING IN A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON CONTINUING
THROUGH THE EARLY TO MID EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE VERY HEAVY
RAIN...GUSTY STRAIGHT LINE WINDS...AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING. ISOLATED CASE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL CAN`T BE
RULED OUT ALSO. WITH ANTECEDENT SOIL CONDITIONS STILL RATHER
SATURATED ACROSS THE LOWER HALF OF THE CWFA...WE WILL STILL KEEP THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS. AS FOR TEMPS...WITH
PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND PRECIP AROUND WE WILL LEAN COOLER THAN THE
CURRENT MAV FOR HIGHS TODAY AND A TAD HIGHER FOR LOWS TONIGHT. HIGHS
TODAY WILL CLIMB TO THE MID TO UPPER 70S FOR ALL AREAS IN THE
CWFA...FOLLOWED BY LOWS MOSTLY IN THE MID 60S FOR ALL INLAND AREAS
AND THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. 32/EE

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...16.00Z GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
THAT THE WELL PRONOUNCED CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MOVES VERY
LITTLE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TO CLOSE OUT THE
WEEK. DOWNSTREAM...AMPLIFIED HIGH LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW LOOKS TO
REMAIN QUITE ACTIVE WITH A SERIES OF MID LEVEL IMPULSES CONTINUING TO
PASS EAST ACROSS THE GULF COAST IN THE DIFFLUENT FLOW PATTERN ALOFT.
TIMING OF THESE AND THE SUBSEQUENT POSITION/TIMING/PROGRESSION OF
HEAVIER RAINS PROVE TO BE THE MOST CHALLENGING AND WILL BE MONITORED
IN THE VERY NEAR TERM TIME FRAMES. WILL ALSO WATCH THE PROGRESSION OF
ANY SURFACE BASED MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES SET DOWN BY CONVECTION...WHICH
WILL LIKELY AID IN ENHANCING ASCENT. VERY LITTLE CHANGE NOTED IN THE
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WHICH LOOKS TO REMAIN AT UNSEASONABLY HIGH
LEVELS (PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGING FROM 1.5 TO 1.70 INCHES).
THUS...WILL MAINTAIN THE LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ON
FRIDAY...WHICH WILL AGAIN BE LIKELY EFFICIENT HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS.
THIS ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR THOSE AREAS THAT ARE IMPACTED BY BETTER
ORGANIZED SHOWERS/STORMS THAT MOVE REPEATEDLY OVER THE SAME AREAS.
TAKE NOTE...WITH ANTECEDENT SOIL MOISTURE LEVELS BEING HIGH FROM
RECENT EPISODES OF HEAVY RAIN...WILL NOT TAKE MUCH FOR ADDITIONAL
HEAVY DOWNPOURS TO LEAD TO RUNOFF AND AREAL FLOODING PROBLEMS. FLASH
FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. DAYTIME HIGHS ON
FRIDAY IN THE MID/UPPER 70S.

AS THE HIGH LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY...THE BEST DEEP LAYER
ASCENT FOR ORGANIZED SHOWERS AND STORMS WITHIN A STRONGLY DIFFLUENT
FLOW ALOFT...LOOKS TO BECOME POSITIONED FROM EAST TEXAS INTO THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA FRIDAY NIGHT. THUS...WILL HAVE A
LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS/STORMS POSITIONED MORE TO THE WEST OVER SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI/INTERIOR SOUTHWEST ALABAMA FRIDAY NIGHT. LOWER CHANCES
MORE TO THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT...UNDER AXIS OF DOWNSTREAM UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING. OVERNIGHT LOWS MID 60S INTERIOR TO NEAR 70 CLOSER TO
AREA BEACHES. /10

LONG TERM [SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...THE UPPER SYSTEM BEGINS TO
OPEN UP...PHASE WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM AND EJECT ACROSS THE PLAINS
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE HIGH LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST REMAINS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND LIKELY ACTIVE AS A
SERIES OF MID LEVEL IMPULSES CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE CHANGES LITTLE...SO CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/STORMS REMAIN ELEVATED ON THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOME OF THE
RAINS LOCALLY HEAVY...RESULTING IN POTENTIAL FLOODING OF LOWER LYING
AREAS SUBJECT TO POOR DRAINAGE OF EXCESSIVE AMOUNTS OF STORM WATER.

FOR SPECIFIC INFORMATION ON EXPECTED RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS...TIMING AND
IMPACTS...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE/PENSACOLA WEBSITE
AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MOB/

THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS AS WELL ON SATURDAY AS
LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILES BEGIN TO INCREASE AND VEER AS A SUBTROPICAL
LOW LEVEL JET DIVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PART OF TROUGH. AS THE SYSTEM
TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT FOR A TIME DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION WILL LIKELY STRENGTHEN...AS RESULTANT UPPER-LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE INCREASES ACROSS OUR REGION. THUS...SOME POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE STORMS EXISTS ON SATURDAY...LOOKING TO MOSTLY AFFECT
THE NORTHWESTERN TIER OF ZONES. THE CAVEAT WILL BE THE ONGOING
PRECEDING WET PATTERN WHICH MAY REDUCE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY. MORE
SPECIFICS ON POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL ON SATURDAY WILL
COME ON LATER FORECASTS AS THE MAIN PLAYERS IN THE VERY NEAR TERM
WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR AREAL FLOODING.

THE 15.00Z GLOBAL SPECTRAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT RAIN CHANCES WILL
TREND LOWER BY MONDAY AS SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY PIVOTS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST...BRINGING A FRONTAL ZONE THROUGH THE AREA. LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF RAIN FORECAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. LITTLE CHANGE IN DAYTIME
HIGHS DURING THE OUTLOOK. COOLER LOWS...INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S
INTERIOR BOTH TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY MORNINGS AS SURFACE HIGH SINKS INTO
THE SOUTHERN US. /10

AVIATION...
16.12Z ISSUANCE...MOSTLY MVFR CIGS THROUGH 17.12Z. COULD SEE BRIEF
PERIODS OF IFR CIGS MOSTLY IN HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH SOME OF THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT 5 TO 8 KNOTS
THROUGH EARLY FRI MORNING. 32/EE

MARINE...A LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE
MARINE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT THEN SHIFT MOSTLY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND
SLOWLY BUILD OVER THE WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
TO FORM AND MOVE EASTWARD AS THE FRONT NEARS FROM THE WEST. BY SAT
SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG MOSTLY ACCOMPANIED BY
GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. ISOLATED CASES
OF DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER NEAR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. A MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW IS
EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. A DRIER WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF NEXT
WEEK. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      78  66  78  66  77 / 100  60  70  50  80
PENSACOLA   76  68  77  68  78 / 100  80  70  30  70
DESTIN      78  69  75  70  78 / 100  80  60  10  70
EVERGREEN   75  65  79  64  80 / 100  80  70  30  80
WAYNESBORO  76  64  79  66  77 /  90  60  70  60  80
CAMDEN      75  64  79  64  79 /  90  70  70  40  80
CRESTVIEW   79  66  77  67  81 / 100  80  70  20  70

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR ESCAMBIA-LOWER
     BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-UPPER MOBILE-WASHINGTON.

FL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL ESCAMBIA-
     COASTAL OKALOOSA-COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND ESCAMBIA-INLAND
     OKALOOSA-INLAND SANTA ROSA.

MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR GEORGE-GREENE-PERRY-
     STONE-WAYNE.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMOB 161528 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1028 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

...BE PREPARED FOR ISOLATED FLOODING THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...VERY COMPLEX FORECAST TODAY. FIRST...WILL LEAVE
CATEGORICAL POPS...IT IS GOING TO RAIN MOST AREAS GIVEN PATTERN AND
MAGNITUDE OF INGREDIENTS SUPPORTIVE OF PRECIPITATION. THERE ARE TWO
DISTINCT FEATURES IN THE OBSERVED DATA THIS MORNING. FIRST THERE IS AN
AREA OF ONGOING PRECIPITATION OVER SE LA. SECONDLY...THERE IS A
SHORTWAVE LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MS.
THE LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS THE LATTER BECOMING DOMINANT. THIS SHOULD
ACT TO DESTABILIZE LAPSE RATES AND HELP TO POOL THE MOISTURE JUST
ENOUGH SO THAT MAIN DEEP CONVECTIVE INITIATION TAKES PLACE MORE
INLAND VERSUS CLOSER TO THE COAST. THE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE SE LA
REALLY DISSIPATING AND EVAPORATING WITH TIME AS IT APPROACHES THIS
AFTERNOON. AM LEERY ABOUT REDUCING RAINFALL AMOUNTS TOO MUCH ALONG
THE COAST DUE TO COLD POOL/BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS. IN SUMMARY LATEST
THINKING IS THAT HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL FALL ALONG AND NORTH OF
I-10 THIS AFTERNOON AND PROPAGATE INLAND WITH TIME. WILL JUST HAVE TO
WATCH IT AND SEE. AS WE SEE IT NOW...AREAS NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR
STAND THE GREATEST CHANCE OF SEEING FLOODING THIS AFTERNOON.

LATEST SFC OBS SHOW ANOTHER COMPLICATING FACTOR THAT WILL LINGER IN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THAT IS THE APPALACHIAN LOW-LEVEL WEDGE. IT IS
CURRENTLY OBSERVED TO HAVE ALREADY MOVED INTO OUR NE-MOST COUNTIES
(I.E., CRENSHAW...COVINGTON AND BUTLER) AND IS PROPAGATING SWWD.
FROM THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL HELP SQUEEZE THE WARM SECTOR FURTHER
FROM THE `EAST`...GIVEN APPROACHING S/WAVE FROM THE `WEST.` THIS WILL
HAVE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED BECAUSE IT IS STRONG. IT WILL AFFECT
DISTRIBUTION OF PRECIPITATION IN THE NEAR TERM AS WELL AS TEMPS AND
WINDS.

REGARDLESS...MOST AREAS IN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA REMAIN WITH
THE HIGHEST ANTECEDENT SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS. ANY QUICK BURST
DOWNPOURS WILL AGGRAVATE STREET FLOODING QUICKLY (I.E., JUST UNDER
1"/H) AND ANY MORE THAN THAT WE WILL BE RIGHT BACK IN AREAL
FLOOD/FLASH FLOOD WARNING TERRITORY QUICKLY (DEPENDING UPON THE
SITUATION).

NO CHANGES TO ZONES AT THE MOMENT.

/23 JMM

&&

.MARINE...WINDS TO BE 5 TO 10 KNOTS...CLOSER TO 10 KNOTS LATER THIS
AFTENOON. DID BUMP SEAS UP 1 FOOT ON AVERAGE BECAUSE DEEP CONVECTION
WILL CREATE LOCALIZED HIGHER WAVES THAT HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO AVERAGE
OUT FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THE THIS AFTERNOON PERIOD. /23 JMM

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 459 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015/

..EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL CONTINUES THE NEXT FEW DAYS...
..POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR AREAL FLOODING...
..SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY...

SHORT TERM [TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT]...DEEP UPPER LOW PRESSURE CENTER
OVER THE LOWER ROCKIES WILL CONTINUE TO DIG AND DRIFT EASTWARD
THROUGH TONIGHT LEADING TO A CONTINUED SERIES OF WEAK TO MODERATE
MID LEVEL IMPULSES EJECTING ENE FROM LOWER AND CENTRAL TEXAS TO THE
CENTRAL GULF STATES THROUGH TONIGHT. WITH DEEP MOISTURE STILL IN
PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE LOWER MS RIVER AND CENTRAL GULF REGION...EXPECT
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
BEGIN AFFECTING MOST AREAS IN THE CWFA THIS MORNING BUILDING IN
COVERAGE THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT THEN DIMINISHING SLOWLY THROUGH EARLY
FRI MORNING. THE HEAVIEST PRECIP LOOKS TO OCCUR OVER THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE CWFA LATER TODAY...SPREADING EASTWARD THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND PRECIP IN THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT BELIEVE DAYTIME TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN 2 TO 3 DEGREES
COOLER THAN THE PREDICTED MOS RESULTING IN ANOTHER DAY OF WEAK
SEABREEZE CIRCULATIONS DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. LATEST
MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW PWATS BETWEEN 1.8 TO 2.0 INCHES FOR
MOST AREAS COMBINED WITH MARGINAL SFC BASED INSTABILITY AND SHEAR...
RESULTING IN A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON CONTINUING
THROUGH THE EARLY TO MID EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE VERY HEAVY
RAIN...GUSTY STRAIGHT LINE WINDS...AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING. ISOLATED CASE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL CAN`T BE
RULED OUT ALSO. WITH ANTECEDENT SOIL CONDITIONS STILL RATHER
SATURATED ACROSS THE LOWER HALF OF THE CWFA...WE WILL STILL KEEP THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS. AS FOR TEMPS...WITH
PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND PRECIP AROUND WE WILL LEAN COOLER THAN THE
CURRENT MAV FOR HIGHS TODAY AND A TAD HIGHER FOR LOWS TONIGHT. HIGHS
TODAY WILL CLIMB TO THE MID TO UPPER 70S FOR ALL AREAS IN THE
CWFA...FOLLOWED BY LOWS MOSTLY IN THE MID 60S FOR ALL INLAND AREAS
AND THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. 32/EE

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...16.00Z GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
THAT THE WELL PRONOUNCED CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MOVES VERY
LITTLE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TO CLOSE OUT THE
WEEK. DOWNSTREAM...AMPLIFIED HIGH LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW LOOKS TO
REMAIN QUITE ACTIVE WITH A SERIES OF MID LEVEL IMPULSES CONTINUING TO
PASS EAST ACROSS THE GULF COAST IN THE DIFFLUENT FLOW PATTERN ALOFT.
TIMING OF THESE AND THE SUBSEQUENT POSITION/TIMING/PROGRESSION OF
HEAVIER RAINS PROVE TO BE THE MOST CHALLENGING AND WILL BE MONITORED
IN THE VERY NEAR TERM TIME FRAMES. WILL ALSO WATCH THE PROGRESSION OF
ANY SURFACE BASED MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES SET DOWN BY CONVECTION...WHICH
WILL LIKELY AID IN ENHANCING ASCENT. VERY LITTLE CHANGE NOTED IN THE
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WHICH LOOKS TO REMAIN AT UNSEASONABLY HIGH
LEVELS (PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGING FROM 1.5 TO 1.70 INCHES).
THUS...WILL MAINTAIN THE LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ON
FRIDAY...WHICH WILL AGAIN BE LIKELY EFFICIENT HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS.
THIS ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR THOSE AREAS THAT ARE IMPACTED BY BETTER
ORGANIZED SHOWERS/STORMS THAT MOVE REPEATEDLY OVER THE SAME AREAS.
TAKE NOTE...WITH ANTECEDENT SOIL MOISTURE LEVELS BEING HIGH FROM
RECENT EPISODES OF HEAVY RAIN...WILL NOT TAKE MUCH FOR ADDITIONAL
HEAVY DOWNPOURS TO LEAD TO RUNOFF AND AREAL FLOODING PROBLEMS. FLASH
FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. DAYTIME HIGHS ON
FRIDAY IN THE MID/UPPER 70S.

AS THE HIGH LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY...THE BEST DEEP LAYER
ASCENT FOR ORGANIZED SHOWERS AND STORMS WITHIN A STRONGLY DIFFLUENT
FLOW ALOFT...LOOKS TO BECOME POSITIONED FROM EAST TEXAS INTO THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA FRIDAY NIGHT. THUS...WILL HAVE A
LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS/STORMS POSITIONED MORE TO THE WEST OVER SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI/INTERIOR SOUTHWEST ALABAMA FRIDAY NIGHT. LOWER CHANCES
MORE TO THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT...UNDER AXIS OF DOWNSTREAM UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING. OVERNIGHT LOWS MID 60S INTERIOR TO NEAR 70 CLOSER TO
AREA BEACHES. /10

LONG TERM [SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...THE UPPER SYSTEM BEGINS TO
OPEN UP...PHASE WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM AND EJECT ACROSS THE PLAINS
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE HIGH LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST REMAINS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND LIKELY ACTIVE AS A
SERIES OF MID LEVEL IMPULSES CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE CHANGES LITTLE...SO CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/STORMS REMAIN ELEVATED ON THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOME OF THE
RAINS LOCALLY HEAVY...RESULTING IN POTENTIAL FLOODING OF LOWER LYING
AREAS SUBJECT TO POOR DRAINAGE OF EXCESSIVE AMOUNTS OF STORM WATER.

FOR SPECIFIC INFORMATION ON EXPECTED RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS...TIMING AND
IMPACTS...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE/PENSACOLA WEBSITE
AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MOB/

THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS AS WELL ON SATURDAY AS
LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILES BEGIN TO INCREASE AND VEER AS A SUBTROPICAL
LOW LEVEL JET DIVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PART OF TROUGH. AS THE SYSTEM
TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT FOR A TIME DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION WILL LIKELY STRENGTHEN...AS RESULTANT UPPER-LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE INCREASES ACROSS OUR REGION. THUS...SOME POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE STORMS EXISTS ON SATURDAY...LOOKING TO MOSTLY AFFECT
THE NORTHWESTERN TIER OF ZONES. THE CAVEAT WILL BE THE ONGOING
PRECEDING WET PATTERN WHICH MAY REDUCE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY. MORE
SPECIFICS ON POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL ON SATURDAY WILL
COME ON LATER FORECASTS AS THE MAIN PLAYERS IN THE VERY NEAR TERM
WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR AREAL FLOODING.

THE 15.00Z GLOBAL SPECTRAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT RAIN CHANCES WILL
TREND LOWER BY MONDAY AS SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY PIVOTS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST...BRINGING A FRONTAL ZONE THROUGH THE AREA. LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF RAIN FORECAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. LITTLE CHANGE IN DAYTIME
HIGHS DURING THE OUTLOOK. COOLER LOWS...INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S
INTERIOR BOTH TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY MORNINGS AS SURFACE HIGH SINKS INTO
THE SOUTHERN US. /10

AVIATION...
16.12Z ISSUANCE...MOSTLY MVFR CIGS THROUGH 17.12Z. COULD SEE BRIEF
PERIODS OF IFR CIGS MOSTLY IN HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH SOME OF THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT 5 TO 8 KNOTS
THROUGH EARLY FRI MORNING. 32/EE

MARINE...A LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE
MARINE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT THEN SHIFT MOSTLY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND
SLOWLY BUILD OVER THE WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
TO FORM AND MOVE EASTWARD AS THE FRONT NEARS FROM THE WEST. BY SAT
SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG MOSTLY ACCOMPANIED BY
GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. ISOLATED CASES
OF DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER NEAR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. A MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW IS
EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. A DRIER WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF NEXT
WEEK. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      78  66  78  66  77 / 100  60  70  50  80
PENSACOLA   76  68  77  68  78 / 100  80  70  30  70
DESTIN      78  69  75  70  78 / 100  80  60  10  70
EVERGREEN   75  65  79  64  80 / 100  80  70  30  80
WAYNESBORO  76  64  79  66  77 /  90  60  70  60  80
CAMDEN      75  64  79  64  79 /  90  70  70  40  80
CRESTVIEW   79  66  77  67  81 / 100  80  70  20  70

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR ESCAMBIA-LOWER
     BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-UPPER MOBILE-WASHINGTON.

FL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL ESCAMBIA-
     COASTAL OKALOOSA-COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND ESCAMBIA-INLAND
     OKALOOSA-INLAND SANTA ROSA.

MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR GEORGE-GREENE-PERRY-
     STONE-WAYNE.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 161528 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1028 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

...BE PREPARED FOR ISOLATED FLOODING THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...VERY COMPLEX FORECAST TODAY. FIRST...WILL LEAVE
CATEGORICAL POPS...IT IS GOING TO RAIN MOST AREAS GIVEN PATTERN AND
MAGNITUDE OF INGREDIENTS SUPPORTIVE OF PRECIPITATION. THERE ARE TWO
DISTINCT FEATURES IN THE OBSERVED DATA THIS MORNING. FIRST THERE IS AN
AREA OF ONGOING PRECIPITATION OVER SE LA. SECONDLY...THERE IS A
SHORTWAVE LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MS.
THE LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS THE LATTER BECOMING DOMINANT. THIS SHOULD
ACT TO DESTABILIZE LAPSE RATES AND HELP TO POOL THE MOISTURE JUST
ENOUGH SO THAT MAIN DEEP CONVECTIVE INITIATION TAKES PLACE MORE
INLAND VERSUS CLOSER TO THE COAST. THE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE SE LA
REALLY DISSIPATING AND EVAPORATING WITH TIME AS IT APPROACHES THIS
AFTERNOON. AM LEERY ABOUT REDUCING RAINFALL AMOUNTS TOO MUCH ALONG
THE COAST DUE TO COLD POOL/BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS. IN SUMMARY LATEST
THINKING IS THAT HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL FALL ALONG AND NORTH OF
I-10 THIS AFTERNOON AND PROPAGATE INLAND WITH TIME. WILL JUST HAVE TO
WATCH IT AND SEE. AS WE SEE IT NOW...AREAS NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR
STAND THE GREATEST CHANCE OF SEEING FLOODING THIS AFTERNOON.

LATEST SFC OBS SHOW ANOTHER COMPLICATING FACTOR THAT WILL LINGER IN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THAT IS THE APPALACHIAN LOW-LEVEL WEDGE. IT IS
CURRENTLY OBSERVED TO HAVE ALREADY MOVED INTO OUR NE-MOST COUNTIES
(I.E., CRENSHAW...COVINGTON AND BUTLER) AND IS PROPAGATING SWWD.
FROM THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL HELP SQUEEZE THE WARM SECTOR FURTHER
FROM THE `EAST`...GIVEN APPROACHING S/WAVE FROM THE `WEST.` THIS WILL
HAVE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED BECAUSE IT IS STRONG. IT WILL AFFECT
DISTRIBUTION OF PRECIPITATION IN THE NEAR TERM AS WELL AS TEMPS AND
WINDS.

REGARDLESS...MOST AREAS IN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA REMAIN WITH
THE HIGHEST ANTECEDENT SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS. ANY QUICK BURST
DOWNPOURS WILL AGGRAVATE STREET FLOODING QUICKLY (I.E., JUST UNDER
1"/H) AND ANY MORE THAN THAT WE WILL BE RIGHT BACK IN AREAL
FLOOD/FLASH FLOOD WARNING TERRITORY QUICKLY (DEPENDING UPON THE
SITUATION).

NO CHANGES TO ZONES AT THE MOMENT.

/23 JMM

&&

.MARINE...WINDS TO BE 5 TO 10 KNOTS...CLOSER TO 10 KNOTS LATER THIS
AFTENOON. DID BUMP SEAS UP 1 FOOT ON AVERAGE BECAUSE DEEP CONVECTION
WILL CREATE LOCALIZED HIGHER WAVES THAT HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO AVERAGE
OUT FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THE THIS AFTERNOON PERIOD. /23 JMM

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 459 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015/

..EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL CONTINUES THE NEXT FEW DAYS...
..POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR AREAL FLOODING...
..SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY...

SHORT TERM [TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT]...DEEP UPPER LOW PRESSURE CENTER
OVER THE LOWER ROCKIES WILL CONTINUE TO DIG AND DRIFT EASTWARD
THROUGH TONIGHT LEADING TO A CONTINUED SERIES OF WEAK TO MODERATE
MID LEVEL IMPULSES EJECTING ENE FROM LOWER AND CENTRAL TEXAS TO THE
CENTRAL GULF STATES THROUGH TONIGHT. WITH DEEP MOISTURE STILL IN
PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE LOWER MS RIVER AND CENTRAL GULF REGION...EXPECT
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
BEGIN AFFECTING MOST AREAS IN THE CWFA THIS MORNING BUILDING IN
COVERAGE THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT THEN DIMINISHING SLOWLY THROUGH EARLY
FRI MORNING. THE HEAVIEST PRECIP LOOKS TO OCCUR OVER THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE CWFA LATER TODAY...SPREADING EASTWARD THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND PRECIP IN THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT BELIEVE DAYTIME TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN 2 TO 3 DEGREES
COOLER THAN THE PREDICTED MOS RESULTING IN ANOTHER DAY OF WEAK
SEABREEZE CIRCULATIONS DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. LATEST
MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW PWATS BETWEEN 1.8 TO 2.0 INCHES FOR
MOST AREAS COMBINED WITH MARGINAL SFC BASED INSTABILITY AND SHEAR...
RESULTING IN A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON CONTINUING
THROUGH THE EARLY TO MID EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE VERY HEAVY
RAIN...GUSTY STRAIGHT LINE WINDS...AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING. ISOLATED CASE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL CAN`T BE
RULED OUT ALSO. WITH ANTECEDENT SOIL CONDITIONS STILL RATHER
SATURATED ACROSS THE LOWER HALF OF THE CWFA...WE WILL STILL KEEP THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS. AS FOR TEMPS...WITH
PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND PRECIP AROUND WE WILL LEAN COOLER THAN THE
CURRENT MAV FOR HIGHS TODAY AND A TAD HIGHER FOR LOWS TONIGHT. HIGHS
TODAY WILL CLIMB TO THE MID TO UPPER 70S FOR ALL AREAS IN THE
CWFA...FOLLOWED BY LOWS MOSTLY IN THE MID 60S FOR ALL INLAND AREAS
AND THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. 32/EE

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...16.00Z GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
THAT THE WELL PRONOUNCED CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MOVES VERY
LITTLE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TO CLOSE OUT THE
WEEK. DOWNSTREAM...AMPLIFIED HIGH LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW LOOKS TO
REMAIN QUITE ACTIVE WITH A SERIES OF MID LEVEL IMPULSES CONTINUING TO
PASS EAST ACROSS THE GULF COAST IN THE DIFFLUENT FLOW PATTERN ALOFT.
TIMING OF THESE AND THE SUBSEQUENT POSITION/TIMING/PROGRESSION OF
HEAVIER RAINS PROVE TO BE THE MOST CHALLENGING AND WILL BE MONITORED
IN THE VERY NEAR TERM TIME FRAMES. WILL ALSO WATCH THE PROGRESSION OF
ANY SURFACE BASED MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES SET DOWN BY CONVECTION...WHICH
WILL LIKELY AID IN ENHANCING ASCENT. VERY LITTLE CHANGE NOTED IN THE
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WHICH LOOKS TO REMAIN AT UNSEASONABLY HIGH
LEVELS (PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGING FROM 1.5 TO 1.70 INCHES).
THUS...WILL MAINTAIN THE LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ON
FRIDAY...WHICH WILL AGAIN BE LIKELY EFFICIENT HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS.
THIS ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR THOSE AREAS THAT ARE IMPACTED BY BETTER
ORGANIZED SHOWERS/STORMS THAT MOVE REPEATEDLY OVER THE SAME AREAS.
TAKE NOTE...WITH ANTECEDENT SOIL MOISTURE LEVELS BEING HIGH FROM
RECENT EPISODES OF HEAVY RAIN...WILL NOT TAKE MUCH FOR ADDITIONAL
HEAVY DOWNPOURS TO LEAD TO RUNOFF AND AREAL FLOODING PROBLEMS. FLASH
FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. DAYTIME HIGHS ON
FRIDAY IN THE MID/UPPER 70S.

AS THE HIGH LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY...THE BEST DEEP LAYER
ASCENT FOR ORGANIZED SHOWERS AND STORMS WITHIN A STRONGLY DIFFLUENT
FLOW ALOFT...LOOKS TO BECOME POSITIONED FROM EAST TEXAS INTO THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA FRIDAY NIGHT. THUS...WILL HAVE A
LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS/STORMS POSITIONED MORE TO THE WEST OVER SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI/INTERIOR SOUTHWEST ALABAMA FRIDAY NIGHT. LOWER CHANCES
MORE TO THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT...UNDER AXIS OF DOWNSTREAM UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING. OVERNIGHT LOWS MID 60S INTERIOR TO NEAR 70 CLOSER TO
AREA BEACHES. /10

LONG TERM [SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...THE UPPER SYSTEM BEGINS TO
OPEN UP...PHASE WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM AND EJECT ACROSS THE PLAINS
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE HIGH LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST REMAINS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND LIKELY ACTIVE AS A
SERIES OF MID LEVEL IMPULSES CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE CHANGES LITTLE...SO CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/STORMS REMAIN ELEVATED ON THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOME OF THE
RAINS LOCALLY HEAVY...RESULTING IN POTENTIAL FLOODING OF LOWER LYING
AREAS SUBJECT TO POOR DRAINAGE OF EXCESSIVE AMOUNTS OF STORM WATER.

FOR SPECIFIC INFORMATION ON EXPECTED RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS...TIMING AND
IMPACTS...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE/PENSACOLA WEBSITE
AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MOB/

THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS AS WELL ON SATURDAY AS
LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILES BEGIN TO INCREASE AND VEER AS A SUBTROPICAL
LOW LEVEL JET DIVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PART OF TROUGH. AS THE SYSTEM
TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT FOR A TIME DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION WILL LIKELY STRENGTHEN...AS RESULTANT UPPER-LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE INCREASES ACROSS OUR REGION. THUS...SOME POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE STORMS EXISTS ON SATURDAY...LOOKING TO MOSTLY AFFECT
THE NORTHWESTERN TIER OF ZONES. THE CAVEAT WILL BE THE ONGOING
PRECEDING WET PATTERN WHICH MAY REDUCE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY. MORE
SPECIFICS ON POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL ON SATURDAY WILL
COME ON LATER FORECASTS AS THE MAIN PLAYERS IN THE VERY NEAR TERM
WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR AREAL FLOODING.

THE 15.00Z GLOBAL SPECTRAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT RAIN CHANCES WILL
TREND LOWER BY MONDAY AS SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY PIVOTS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST...BRINGING A FRONTAL ZONE THROUGH THE AREA. LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF RAIN FORECAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. LITTLE CHANGE IN DAYTIME
HIGHS DURING THE OUTLOOK. COOLER LOWS...INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S
INTERIOR BOTH TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY MORNINGS AS SURFACE HIGH SINKS INTO
THE SOUTHERN US. /10

AVIATION...
16.12Z ISSUANCE...MOSTLY MVFR CIGS THROUGH 17.12Z. COULD SEE BRIEF
PERIODS OF IFR CIGS MOSTLY IN HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH SOME OF THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT 5 TO 8 KNOTS
THROUGH EARLY FRI MORNING. 32/EE

MARINE...A LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE
MARINE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT THEN SHIFT MOSTLY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND
SLOWLY BUILD OVER THE WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
TO FORM AND MOVE EASTWARD AS THE FRONT NEARS FROM THE WEST. BY SAT
SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG MOSTLY ACCOMPANIED BY
GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. ISOLATED CASES
OF DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER NEAR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. A MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW IS
EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. A DRIER WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF NEXT
WEEK. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      78  66  78  66  77 / 100  60  70  50  80
PENSACOLA   76  68  77  68  78 / 100  80  70  30  70
DESTIN      78  69  75  70  78 / 100  80  60  10  70
EVERGREEN   75  65  79  64  80 / 100  80  70  30  80
WAYNESBORO  76  64  79  66  77 /  90  60  70  60  80
CAMDEN      75  64  79  64  79 /  90  70  70  40  80
CRESTVIEW   79  66  77  67  81 / 100  80  70  20  70

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR ESCAMBIA-LOWER
     BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-UPPER MOBILE-WASHINGTON.

FL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL ESCAMBIA-
     COASTAL OKALOOSA-COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND ESCAMBIA-INLAND
     OKALOOSA-INLAND SANTA ROSA.

MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR GEORGE-GREENE-PERRY-
     STONE-WAYNE.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$





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