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000
FXUS64 KMOB 202203
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
403 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT]...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WET WEATHER FRIDAY IS CURRENTLY PUSHING FROM THE
EASTERN SEABOARD TO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...WITH ZONAL TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN PREVAILING ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION IN THE
WAKE OF THIS FEATURE. A SURFACE COLD FRONT REMAINS DRAPED FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST GULF...WITH ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE CENTERED
IN THE VICINITY OF THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE
LIGHT RAIN HAS MOVED TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...THOUGH RADAR SHOWS SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN WITHIN REMNANT
WEAK LIFT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE AS OF 3 PM CST. LOW
STRATUS HAS OTHERWISE HELD STRONG ACROSS THE CWFA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH ONLY A FEW BREAKS NOTED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT SOUTH
CENTRAL ALABAMA. TEMPERATURES HAVE HELD FROM AROUND 50 TO THE LOWER
50S WHERE CLOUDS REMAINED SOCKED IN...WITH READINGS RISING INTO THE
UPPER 50S WHERE PEAKS OF SUN HAVE OCCURRED.

A GENERAL SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST REGION THROUGH SUNDAY WHILE THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF SURFACE LOW
SLOWLY DRIFTS SOUTHWARD THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE FLOW ALONG WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
BRING A CONTINUED CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND
IMMEDIATE COAST...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN GENERALLY ALONG AND
TO THE EAST OF I-65 THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS THE CWFA THROUGH THE PERIOD. COOL
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS OUR AREA BETWEEN THE SOUTHWARD
DRIFTING SURFACE LOW AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE
EASTERN SEABOARD TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. LOWS TONIGHT GENERALLY
LOOK TO RANGE FROM AROUND 40 OVER THE INTERIOR TO THE MID TO UPPER
40S NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WE TRENDED SUNDAY HIGHS TOWARD COOLER
GUIDANCE...WITH READINGS GENERALLY RANGING FROM AROUND 60 TO THE
LOWER 60S. /21

THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A HIGH LEVEL
SOUTHWEST FLOW ORIENTED FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO SUNDAY NIGHT. BENEATH THIS PATTERN...A STALLED FRONT REMAINS
DRAPED FROM OFF THE SOUTHEAST US COAST TO ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF
WHILE A COOL WEDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS POSITIONED FROM THE
APPALACHIANS TO SOUTHEAST ALABAMA. A SERIES OF MID LEVEL IMPULSES
RIDE NORTHEAST ATOP THE FRONT PRODUCING ENOUGH LIFT TO MAINTAIN
CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS...WHICH WILL BE HIGHER OVER THE GULF WATERS
TO ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF I-65. LESSER CHANCES NORTHWEST OF THESE
AREAS. WILL MAINTAIN COOL CONDITIONS...BUT WITH THE EXPECTED AMOUNT
OF CLOUD COVER...HAVE OPTED TO LEAN CLOSER TO THE WARMER SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE ON LOW TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY MORNING. MID/UPPER
40S INTERIOR TO LOWER/MID 50S COASTAL ZONES.

DURING THE DAY MONDAY...UPPER TROF OVER THE PLAINS BEGINS TO SHARPEN
UP AS STRONG MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS DROP SOUTHWARD INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. MID LEVEL
HEIGHT FALLS CAUSE SURFACE PRESSURES TO LOWER OVER THE PLAINS ON AN
EASTWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT. MEANWHILE...SURFACE HIGH OVER THE
SOUTHEAST BREAKS DOWN...WITH A RETURN FLOW OFF THE GULF CAUSING
DEWPOINTS TO RISE AND TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. HIGHS
IN THE MID/UPPER 60S AND LOWS RANGING FROM 58 TO 63...RESPECTIVELY.
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONTINUE ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING BEFORE
INTRODUCING THUNDER LATE AS A WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTH OF THE AREA.
/10

.LONG TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...VIGOROUS ENERGY ROTATING
AROUND THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE UPPER TROF PLACES THE FORECAST AREA
UNDER A MORE ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY.
WIND PROFILES RESPOND BY INCREASING AND VEERING THROUGH THE DAY AS
BETTER DYNAMICS APPROACH FROM THE WEST. ALTHOUGH DAYTIME INSTABILITY
IS MARGINAL...THE ORIENTATION OF THE WIND SHEAR AND RESULTANT CURVED
HODOGRAPHS...BRINGS CONCERNS THAT ISOLATED TORNADOES COULD VERY WELL
ACCOMPANY ANY SEVERE STORMS ON TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY IN DISCRETE STORM
CLUSTERS. OTHER HAZARDS IN ANY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. AGREEMENT AMONGST THE GLOBAL MODELS ON THIS
SCENARIO HAS EDGED CONFIDENCE UPWARD...SUCH THAT FORECASTERS WILL
HEIGHTEN WORDING IN AN AFTERNOON UPDATE TO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK. AN ORGANIZING...LINEAR CHARACTER TO STORMS IS FORECAST
TUESDAY MORNING OVER THE WESTERN ZONES...ADVANCING EAST ACROSS THE
AREA THEREAFTER. GIVEN THIS BEING 3 DAYS OUT...MORE DETAILS ON TIMING
WILL COME ON LATER FORECAST SHIFTS AS THE EVENT DRAWS CLOSER IN TIME.

COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MAKE PASSAGE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING
AN END TO THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK. COULD STILL SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
POST FRONTAL SHOWERS OVER THE INTERIOR AND FAR EASTERN ZONES
LINGERING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE ENDING BY AFTERNOON.
RAINFREE CONDITIONS FOLLOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...THEN SMALL POPS RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND AS NEXT WEATHER
SYSTEM PUSHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST.

JUST IN TIME...COLDEST NIGHT IN THE OUTLOOK COMES CHRISTMAS MORNING...WITH
LOWS DIPPING DOWN INTO MID 30S INTERIOR TO LOWER 40S COAST. CHRISTMAS
DAY HIGHS CLOSE TO 60. /10

&&

.AVIATION...
20.18Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION...IFR CEILINGS HAVE HELD STRONG
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SOME RISES TO
MVFR TO VFR LEVELS NOTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST FL PANHANDLE
AND SOUTH CENTRAL AL. A MOIST NORTHEAST TO EAST LOW LEVEL FLOW
SHOULD ALLOW FOR A CONTINUATION OF IFR TO MVFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS 5-10 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED. /21

&&

.MARINE...A MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG NORTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTH CENTRAL GULF SLOWLY DRIFTS SOUTHWARD. WE WILL CONTINUE A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS 20 TO 60 NM OUT THROUGH 6 PM
CST...WHILE KEEPING EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES OVER MOST OTHER
PORTIONS OF THE MARINE AREA. WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE SURFACE LOW TO THE SOUTH
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS WILL BUILD ON TUESDAY
IN RESPONSE TO A STRONGER COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST.
NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF AND
WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...SOME OF WHICH
COULD BE STRONG. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
MARINE AREA BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT LEADING TO A STRONG WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE LIKELY IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT BY MIDWEEK. 21/32

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      45  63  53  69  62 /  20  10  30  20  40
PENSACOLA   47  61  55  69  62 /  30  20  50  40  50
DESTIN      50  59  57  68  62 /  30  30  60  40  50
EVERGREEN   43  60  48  67  59 /  20  20  50  30  40
WAYNESBORO  40  61  48  66  60 /  10  10  10  20  30
CAMDEN      41  61  47  65  58 /  10  10  20  30  40
CRESTVIEW   46  61  49  69  60 /  30  30  50  40  50

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMOB 202203
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
403 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT]...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WET WEATHER FRIDAY IS CURRENTLY PUSHING FROM THE
EASTERN SEABOARD TO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...WITH ZONAL TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN PREVAILING ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION IN THE
WAKE OF THIS FEATURE. A SURFACE COLD FRONT REMAINS DRAPED FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST GULF...WITH ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE CENTERED
IN THE VICINITY OF THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE
LIGHT RAIN HAS MOVED TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...THOUGH RADAR SHOWS SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN WITHIN REMNANT
WEAK LIFT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE AS OF 3 PM CST. LOW
STRATUS HAS OTHERWISE HELD STRONG ACROSS THE CWFA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH ONLY A FEW BREAKS NOTED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT SOUTH
CENTRAL ALABAMA. TEMPERATURES HAVE HELD FROM AROUND 50 TO THE LOWER
50S WHERE CLOUDS REMAINED SOCKED IN...WITH READINGS RISING INTO THE
UPPER 50S WHERE PEAKS OF SUN HAVE OCCURRED.

A GENERAL SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST REGION THROUGH SUNDAY WHILE THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF SURFACE LOW
SLOWLY DRIFTS SOUTHWARD THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE FLOW ALONG WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
BRING A CONTINUED CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND
IMMEDIATE COAST...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN GENERALLY ALONG AND
TO THE EAST OF I-65 THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS THE CWFA THROUGH THE PERIOD. COOL
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS OUR AREA BETWEEN THE SOUTHWARD
DRIFTING SURFACE LOW AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE
EASTERN SEABOARD TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. LOWS TONIGHT GENERALLY
LOOK TO RANGE FROM AROUND 40 OVER THE INTERIOR TO THE MID TO UPPER
40S NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WE TRENDED SUNDAY HIGHS TOWARD COOLER
GUIDANCE...WITH READINGS GENERALLY RANGING FROM AROUND 60 TO THE
LOWER 60S. /21

THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A HIGH LEVEL
SOUTHWEST FLOW ORIENTED FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO SUNDAY NIGHT. BENEATH THIS PATTERN...A STALLED FRONT REMAINS
DRAPED FROM OFF THE SOUTHEAST US COAST TO ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF
WHILE A COOL WEDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS POSITIONED FROM THE
APPALACHIANS TO SOUTHEAST ALABAMA. A SERIES OF MID LEVEL IMPULSES
RIDE NORTHEAST ATOP THE FRONT PRODUCING ENOUGH LIFT TO MAINTAIN
CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS...WHICH WILL BE HIGHER OVER THE GULF WATERS
TO ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF I-65. LESSER CHANCES NORTHWEST OF THESE
AREAS. WILL MAINTAIN COOL CONDITIONS...BUT WITH THE EXPECTED AMOUNT
OF CLOUD COVER...HAVE OPTED TO LEAN CLOSER TO THE WARMER SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE ON LOW TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY MORNING. MID/UPPER
40S INTERIOR TO LOWER/MID 50S COASTAL ZONES.

DURING THE DAY MONDAY...UPPER TROF OVER THE PLAINS BEGINS TO SHARPEN
UP AS STRONG MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS DROP SOUTHWARD INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. MID LEVEL
HEIGHT FALLS CAUSE SURFACE PRESSURES TO LOWER OVER THE PLAINS ON AN
EASTWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT. MEANWHILE...SURFACE HIGH OVER THE
SOUTHEAST BREAKS DOWN...WITH A RETURN FLOW OFF THE GULF CAUSING
DEWPOINTS TO RISE AND TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. HIGHS
IN THE MID/UPPER 60S AND LOWS RANGING FROM 58 TO 63...RESPECTIVELY.
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONTINUE ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING BEFORE
INTRODUCING THUNDER LATE AS A WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTH OF THE AREA.
/10

.LONG TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...VIGOROUS ENERGY ROTATING
AROUND THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE UPPER TROF PLACES THE FORECAST AREA
UNDER A MORE ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY.
WIND PROFILES RESPOND BY INCREASING AND VEERING THROUGH THE DAY AS
BETTER DYNAMICS APPROACH FROM THE WEST. ALTHOUGH DAYTIME INSTABILITY
IS MARGINAL...THE ORIENTATION OF THE WIND SHEAR AND RESULTANT CURVED
HODOGRAPHS...BRINGS CONCERNS THAT ISOLATED TORNADOES COULD VERY WELL
ACCOMPANY ANY SEVERE STORMS ON TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY IN DISCRETE STORM
CLUSTERS. OTHER HAZARDS IN ANY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. AGREEMENT AMONGST THE GLOBAL MODELS ON THIS
SCENARIO HAS EDGED CONFIDENCE UPWARD...SUCH THAT FORECASTERS WILL
HEIGHTEN WORDING IN AN AFTERNOON UPDATE TO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK. AN ORGANIZING...LINEAR CHARACTER TO STORMS IS FORECAST
TUESDAY MORNING OVER THE WESTERN ZONES...ADVANCING EAST ACROSS THE
AREA THEREAFTER. GIVEN THIS BEING 3 DAYS OUT...MORE DETAILS ON TIMING
WILL COME ON LATER FORECAST SHIFTS AS THE EVENT DRAWS CLOSER IN TIME.

COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MAKE PASSAGE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING
AN END TO THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK. COULD STILL SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
POST FRONTAL SHOWERS OVER THE INTERIOR AND FAR EASTERN ZONES
LINGERING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE ENDING BY AFTERNOON.
RAINFREE CONDITIONS FOLLOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...THEN SMALL POPS RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND AS NEXT WEATHER
SYSTEM PUSHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST.

JUST IN TIME...COLDEST NIGHT IN THE OUTLOOK COMES CHRISTMAS MORNING...WITH
LOWS DIPPING DOWN INTO MID 30S INTERIOR TO LOWER 40S COAST. CHRISTMAS
DAY HIGHS CLOSE TO 60. /10

&&

.AVIATION...
20.18Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION...IFR CEILINGS HAVE HELD STRONG
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SOME RISES TO
MVFR TO VFR LEVELS NOTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST FL PANHANDLE
AND SOUTH CENTRAL AL. A MOIST NORTHEAST TO EAST LOW LEVEL FLOW
SHOULD ALLOW FOR A CONTINUATION OF IFR TO MVFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS 5-10 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED. /21

&&

.MARINE...A MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG NORTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTH CENTRAL GULF SLOWLY DRIFTS SOUTHWARD. WE WILL CONTINUE A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS 20 TO 60 NM OUT THROUGH 6 PM
CST...WHILE KEEPING EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES OVER MOST OTHER
PORTIONS OF THE MARINE AREA. WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE SURFACE LOW TO THE SOUTH
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS WILL BUILD ON TUESDAY
IN RESPONSE TO A STRONGER COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST.
NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF AND
WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...SOME OF WHICH
COULD BE STRONG. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
MARINE AREA BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT LEADING TO A STRONG WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE LIKELY IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT BY MIDWEEK. 21/32

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      45  63  53  69  62 /  20  10  30  20  40
PENSACOLA   47  61  55  69  62 /  30  20  50  40  50
DESTIN      50  59  57  68  62 /  30  30  60  40  50
EVERGREEN   43  60  48  67  59 /  20  20  50  30  40
WAYNESBORO  40  61  48  66  60 /  10  10  10  20  30
CAMDEN      41  61  47  65  58 /  10  10  20  30  40
CRESTVIEW   46  61  49  69  60 /  30  30  50  40  50

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...

&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KMOB 201721 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1121 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO LATE THIS
MORNING...WHILE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
IS ADVANCING EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND TOWARD THE
ADJACENT ATLANTIC COAST. REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT LIGHT
RAIN HAS COME TO AN END ACROSS MOST INLAND PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...THOUGH AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN CONTINUE ACROSS COASTAL PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...MUCH OF THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND
PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA AS OF 11 AM CST. WE HAVE ADJUSTED
RAIN CHANCES DOWNWARD ACROSS MOST AREAS LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...THOUGH WE HAVE KEPT POPS GOING GENERALLY ALONG AND TO
THE SOUTHEAST OF A MOBILE...EVERGREEN...LUVERNE LINE WHERE WEAK LIFT
MAY PERSIST INTO EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON.

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS OTHERWISE STILL
INDICATE THAT THE FORECAST AREA STILL REMAINS SOCKED IN WITH LOW
STRATUS LATE THIS MORNING. WITH LOW CLOUDS LIKELY PERSISTING INTO
THE AFTERNOON...HIGHS ONLY LOOK TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 50S AT BEST
ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS. WE HAVE ADJUSTED HIGHS DOWNWARD SLIGHTLY FROM
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. /21

&&

.MARINE UPDATE...MARINE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS
IMPACTING THE COASTAL WATERS OF ALABAMA AND THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA
PANHANDLE TO THE NORTH OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SITUATED ALONG A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF. WINDS ARE
STRONGEST FROM 20 TO 60 NM OUT. WE HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS...WHILE CONTINUING TO
HEADLINE EXERCISE CAUTION OVER MOST INLAND BAYS AND SOUNDS. SEAS
WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FEET NEAR SHORE...AND 4 TO PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 6
TO 7 FEET WELL OFFSHORE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. /21

&&

.AVIATION...
20.18Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION...IFR CEILINGS OVER MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATE THIS MORNING SHOULD GRADUALLY RISE TO MVFR
CATEGORIES DURING THE AFTERNOON. A MOIST NORTHEAST TO EAST LOW LEVEL
FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR A CONTINUATION OF AT LEAST MVFR CIGS LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN MAINLY
SOUTHEAST OF A KMOB...K79J LINE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS 5-10 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED. /21

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 723 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

MARINE...HAD TO UPDATE THE CURRENT MARINE FORECAST MAINLY FOR EARLY
MORNING DRAINAGE ALONG THE COAST. THIS OFFSHORE FLOW IS LIKELY
ENHANCED THIS MORNING DUE TO THE POSITION OF THE BROAD SURFACE LOW
SOUTH OF THE AL..MS AND NWFL COAST. THE NORTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY DIMINISH TODAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND DRIFT MOSTLY SOUTHWARD.
32/EE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT...DAMPENING SHORT WAVE TROUGH  MOVING EAST OVER THE CENTRAL
GULF STATES THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST REACHING THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. TO THE SOUTH BROAD
SURFACE LOW ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL WEAKENS AS UPPER ENERGY MOVES
EAST. BOTH THE LOW CENTER AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOK TO MAINTAIN
CONTINUITY OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH TONIGHT DRIFTING FURTHER
SOUTHWARD FROM THE COAST THROUGH 12Z SUN. AS THIS SYSTEM DRIFTS
SOUTHWARD THE BETTER COVERAGE OF RAIN SHIFTS SOUTH AND EAST LATE
THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED COVERAGE CONTINUING
OVER THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. FURTHER WEST A
DEEPENING UPPER TROF MOVES EASTWARD OVER MUCH OF TX BY 12Z SUN
SETTING THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF MEASURABLE PRECIP LATE SUN
INTO MON. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT WITH RAIN CHANCES DECREASING GENERALLY FROM
THE NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT. AS FOR TEMPS A BIG DISCREPANCY
BETWEEN THE CURRENT MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT WITH THE
CURRENT MAV GUIDANCE PROBABLY TO WARM DUE TO THE POSITION OF THE
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH COMBINED WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT. LATEST THICKNESS VALUES FROM
BOTH THE PHYSICAL GFS AND ECMWF ALSO SUPPORT THIS REASONING. FOR NOW
WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE MID 50S FOR MOST OF THE CWFA WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF THE UPPER 50S OVER MOST AREAS IN NWFL. AS FOR LOW
TEMPS TONIGHT DUE TO THE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER OVER THE REGION WILL
LEAN TOWARDS THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT GOING A DEGREE
OR TWO HIGHER FOR MOST AREAS, AS A RESULT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S FOR MOST OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWFA AND
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S FURTHER SOUTH. 32/EE

FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER TROF OVER THE PLAINS
AMPLIFIES SIGNIFICANTLY INTO A LONGWAVE TROF MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT WHILE A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ARE EJECTED DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.  AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND BRINGS A TRAILING COLD FRONT
TOWARDS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY LATE MONDAY NIGHT.  THERE
IS INCREASED CONFIDENCE NOW ON A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER TEXAS
ON THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON MONDAY WHICH WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT
FEATURE FOR TUESDAY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD.  A SURFACE RIDGE
REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES ON SUNDAY THEN WEAKENS
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT/TEXAS
SURFACE LOW.  THE SERIES OF SHORTWAVES IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER
THE REGION INTERACT WITH A PREEXISTING INVERTED SURFACE TROF OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF AND THE SOUTHEAST STATES SURFACE RIDGE TO PRODUCE
MODERATE ISENTROPIC LIFT SEEN IN THE 290-300K LAYER SUNDAY WHICH
STRENGTHENS SOMEWHAT SUNDAY NIGHT.  BASED ON CONDENSATION PRESSURE
DEFICITS IN THE 290-300K LAYER...THE BEST POPS WILL BE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.  WITH
IMPROVING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IN THIS PORTION AND THE INCREASING
ISENTROPIC LIFT...WILL HAVE CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS ON SUNDAY FOR
MOST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA TAPERING TO SLIGHT
CHANCE OVER THE NORTHWEST PORTION...THEN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT WILL HAVE
LIKELY POPS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION AND CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE
POPS FOR THE REMAINING PORTION.

THE ISENTROPIC LIFT WEAKENS ON MONDAY WITH BOTH THE WEAKENING OF THE
SOUTHEAST STATES SURFACE RIDGE AND THE BREAKDOWN OF THE NORTHERN
GULF INVERTED SURFACE TROF...AND WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR THE
EASTERN PORTION TAPERING TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE WESTERN
THIRD.  ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT WHILE DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES FURTHER ACROSS THE AREA AND WILL HAVE
CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS WITH THE HIGHEST POPS NEAR THE COAST
WHERE THE BEST DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT.  THE LAND
PORTION OF THE AREA REMAINS STABLE AND HAVE KEPT THUNDER OUT OF THE
FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH EXPECT ISOLATED EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE MARINE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.  HIGHS
ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 60 INLAND TO LOWER 60S CLOSER TO THE
COAST THEN WARMER TEMPERATURES FOLLOW FOR MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID 60S INLAND RANGING TO UPPER 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST.  LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S INLAND TO LOWER 50S
CLOSER TO THE COAST...THEN IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S MONDAY NIGHT. /29

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...THE PLAINS LONGWAVE TROF
ADVANCES SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT THEN TAKES ON A
NEGATIVE TILT WHILE ADVANCING INTO THE EASTERN STATES ON WEDNESDAY.
THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE LOCATED NEAR THE SABINE RIVER VALLEY OR
EXTREME EASTERN TEXAS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND ADVANCES
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.  THE 850 MB JET INCREASES
TO 35-45 KNOTS ON TUESDAY AND A LINE OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...EXITING TO THE
EAST POSSIBLY AS LATE AS TUESDAY EVENING.  CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED
WITH TIMING FOR THIS SYSTEM AND HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS
THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH LIKELY POPS FOR THE EASTERN PORTION TUESDAY
NIGHT.  IT LOOKS PROBABLE THAT 0-3 KM MUCAPES OF 500 J/KG WILL BE
PRESENT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS LINE OF STORMS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF
0-1 KM HELICITY OF 150 M2/S2...SUFFICIENT TO ADD MENTION OF
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SEVERE STORMS FOR TUESDAY TO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK. DRY CONDITIONS FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE THEN SMALL POPS RETURN FOR FRIDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
ADVANCES FROM THE PLAINS. /29

MARINE...A WEAKLY ORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST AND SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND.
AS A RESULT A MODERATE NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL THEN
DIMINISH LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE SURFACE LOW TO THE
SOUTH CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS WILL BUILD ON
TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO A STRONGER COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE MARINE AREA
BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT LEADING TO A STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW OVER
THE MARINE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL BE LIKELY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT BY MIDWEEK.
32/EE

AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE...MOSTLY LIFR TO IFR CIGS THROUGH 20.15Z FOLLOWED BY
IFR TO MVFR CIGS THROUGH 21.12Z. LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN WILL
SHIFT EAST AND SOUTH LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON. LOWERING
CIGS WITH LIGHT DRIZZLE POSSIBLE REDEVELOPS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SUN
MORNING. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE NORTHEAST AT 8 TO 10 KNOTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS THROUGH 21.12Z. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      54  48  63  53  69 /  20  10  30  50  20
PENSACOLA   56  50  63  55  69 /  40  20  50  70  40
DESTIN      57  53  62  57  68 /  50  20  60  70  40
EVERGREEN   54  44  60  49  67 /  30  10  30  50  30
WAYNESBORO  54  40  60  47  66 /  10  10  20  30  20
CAMDEN      54  41  60  47  65 /  20  10  20  40  30
CRESTVIEW   56  48  63  52  69 /  40  20  50  70  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT
     20 NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...

&&

$$

21/10






000
FXUS64 KMOB 201323 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
723 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.MARINE...HAD TO UPDATE THE CURRENT MARINE FORECAST MAINLY FOR EARLY
MORNING DRAINAGE ALONG THE COAST. THIS OFFSHORE FLOW IS LIKELY
ENHANCED THIS MORNING DUE TO THE POSITION OF THE BROAD SURFACE LOW
SOUTH OF THE AL..MS AND NWFL COAST. THE NORTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY DIMINISH TODAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND DRIFT MOSTLY SOUTHWARD.
32/EE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT...DAMPENING SHORT WAVE TROUGH  MOVING EAST OVER THE CENTRAL
GULF STATES THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST REACHING THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. TO THE SOUTH BROAD
SURFACE LOW ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL WEAKENS AS UPPER ENERGY MOVES
EAST. BOTH THE LOW CENTER AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOK TO MAINTAIN
CONTINUITY OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH TONIGHT DRIFTING FURTHER
SOUTHWARD FROM THE COAST THROUGH 12Z SUN. AS THIS SYSTEM DRIFTS
SOUTHWARD THE BETTER COVERAGE OF RAIN SHIFTS SOUTH AND EAST LATE
THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED COVERAGE CONTINUING
OVER THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. FURTHER WEST A
DEEPENING UPPER TROF MOVES EASTWARD OVER MUCH OF TX BY 12Z SUN
SETTING THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF MEASURABLE PRECIP LATE SUN
INTO MON. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT WITH RAIN CHANCES DECREASING GENERALLY FROM
THE NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT. AS FOR TEMPS A BIG DISCREPANCY
BETWEEN THE CURRENT MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT WITH THE
CURRENT MAV GUIDANCE PROBABLY TO WARM DUE TO THE POSITION OF THE
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH COMBINED WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT. LATEST THICKNESS VALUES FROM
BOTH THE PHYSICAL GFS AND ECMWF ALSO SUPPORT THIS REASONING. FOR NOW
WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE MID 50S FOR MOST OF THE CWFA WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF THE UPPER 50S OVER MOST AREAS IN NWFL. AS FOR LOW
TEMPS TONIGHT DUE TO THE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER OVER THE REGION WILL
LEAN TOWARDS THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT GOING A DEGREE
OR TWO HIGHER FOR MOST AREAS, AS A RESULT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S FOR MOST OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWFA AND
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S FURTHER SOUTH. 32/EE

FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER TROF OVER THE PLAINS
AMPLIFIES SIGNIFICANTLY INTO A LONGWAVE TROF MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT WHILE A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ARE EJECTED DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.  AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND BRINGS A TRAILING COLD FRONT
TOWARDS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY LATE MONDAY NIGHT.  THERE
IS INCREASED CONFIDENCE NOW ON A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER TEXAS
ON THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON MONDAY WHICH WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT
FEATURE FOR TUESDAY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD.  A SURFACE RIDGE
REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES ON SUNDAY THEN WEAKENS
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT/TEXAS
SURFACE LOW.  THE SERIES OF SHORTWAVES IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER
THE REGION INTERACT WITH A PREEXISTING INVERTED SURFACE TROF OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF AND THE SOUTHEAST STATES SURFACE RIDGE TO PRODUCE
MODERATE ISENTROPIC LIFT SEEN IN THE 290-300K LAYER SUNDAY WHICH
STRENGTHENS SOMEWHAT SUNDAY NIGHT.  BASED ON CONDENSATION PRESSURE
DEFICITS IN THE 290-300K LAYER...THE BEST POPS WILL BE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.  WITH
IMPROVING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IN THIS PORTION AND THE INCREASING
ISENTROPIC LIFT...WILL HAVE CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS ON SUNDAY FOR
MOST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA TAPERING TO SLIGHT
CHANCE OVER THE NORTHWEST PORTION...THEN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT WILL HAVE
LIKELY POPS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION AND CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE
POPS FOR THE REMAINING PORTION.

THE ISENTROPIC LIFT WEAKENS ON MONDAY WITH BOTH THE WEAKENING OF THE
SOUTHEAST STATES SURFACE RIDGE AND THE BREAKDOWN OF THE NORTHERN
GULF INVERTED SURFACE TROF...AND WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR THE
EASTERN PORTION TAPERING TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE WESTERN
THIRD.  ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT WHILE DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES FURTHER ACROSS THE AREA AND WILL HAVE
CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS WITH THE HIGHEST POPS NEAR THE COAST
WHERE THE BEST DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT.  THE LAND
PORTION OF THE AREA REMAINS STABLE AND HAVE KEPT THUNDER OUT OF THE
FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH EXPECT ISOLATED EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE MARINE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.  HIGHS
ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 60 INLAND TO LOWER 60S CLOSER TO THE
COAST THEN WARMER TEMPERATURES FOLLOW FOR MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID 60S INLAND RANGING TO UPPER 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST.  LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S INLAND TO LOWER 50S
CLOSER TO THE COAST...THEN IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S MONDAY NIGHT. /29

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...THE PLAINS LONGWAVE TROF
ADVANCES SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT THEN TAKES ON A
NEGATIVE TILT WHILE ADVANCING INTO THE EASTERN STATES ON WEDNESDAY.
THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE LOCATED NEAR THE SABINE RIVER VALLEY OR
EXTREME EASTERN TEXAS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND ADVANCES
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.  THE 850 MB JET INCREASES
TO 35-45 KNOTS ON TUESDAY AND A LINE OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...EXITING TO THE
EAST POSSIBLY AS LATE AS TUESDAY EVENING.  CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED
WITH TIMING FOR THIS SYSTEM AND HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS
THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH LIKELY POPS FOR THE EASTERN PORTION TUESDAY
NIGHT.  IT LOOKS PROBABLE THAT 0-3 KM MUCAPES OF 500 J/KG WILL BE
PRESENT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS LINE OF STORMS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF
0-1 KM HELICITY OF 150 M2/S2...SUFFICIENT TO ADD MENTION OF
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SEVERE STORMS FOR TUESDAY TO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK. DRY CONDITIONS FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE THEN SMALL POPS RETURN FOR FRIDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
ADVANCES FROM THE PLAINS. /29

MARINE...A WEAKLY ORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST AND SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND.
AS A RESULT A MODERATE NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL THEN
DIMINISH LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE SURFACE LOW TO THE
SOUTH CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS WILL BUILD ON
TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO A STRONGER COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE MARINE AREA
BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT LEADING TO A STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW OVER
THE MARINE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL BE LIKELY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT BY MIDWEEK.
32/EE

AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE...MOSTLY LIFR TO IFR CIGS THROUGH 20.15Z FOLLOWED BY
IFR TO MVFR CIGS THROUGH 21.12Z. LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN WILL
SHIFT EAST AND SOUTH LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON. LOWERING
CIGS WITH LIGHT DRIZZLE POSSIBLE REDEVELOPS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SUN
MORNING. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE NORTHEAST AT 8 TO 10 KNOTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS THROUGH 21.12Z. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      55  48  63  53  69 /  40  10  30  50  20
PENSACOLA   58  50  63  55  69 /  40  20  50  70  40
DESTIN      59  53  62  57  68 /  30  20  60  70  40
EVERGREEN   56  44  60  49  67 /  40  10  30  50  30
WAYNESBORO  55  40  60  47  66 /  30  10  20  30  20
CAMDEN      56  41  60  47  65 /  30  10  20  40  30
CRESTVIEW   58  48  63  52  69 /  50  20  50  70  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KMOB 201323 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
723 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.MARINE...HAD TO UPDATE THE CURRENT MARINE FORECAST MAINLY FOR EARLY
MORNING DRAINAGE ALONG THE COAST. THIS OFFSHORE FLOW IS LIKELY
ENHANCED THIS MORNING DUE TO THE POSITION OF THE BROAD SURFACE LOW
SOUTH OF THE AL..MS AND NWFL COAST. THE NORTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY DIMINISH TODAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND DRIFT MOSTLY SOUTHWARD.
32/EE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT...DAMPENING SHORT WAVE TROUGH  MOVING EAST OVER THE CENTRAL
GULF STATES THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST REACHING THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. TO THE SOUTH BROAD
SURFACE LOW ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL WEAKENS AS UPPER ENERGY MOVES
EAST. BOTH THE LOW CENTER AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOK TO MAINTAIN
CONTINUITY OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH TONIGHT DRIFTING FURTHER
SOUTHWARD FROM THE COAST THROUGH 12Z SUN. AS THIS SYSTEM DRIFTS
SOUTHWARD THE BETTER COVERAGE OF RAIN SHIFTS SOUTH AND EAST LATE
THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED COVERAGE CONTINUING
OVER THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. FURTHER WEST A
DEEPENING UPPER TROF MOVES EASTWARD OVER MUCH OF TX BY 12Z SUN
SETTING THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF MEASURABLE PRECIP LATE SUN
INTO MON. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT WITH RAIN CHANCES DECREASING GENERALLY FROM
THE NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT. AS FOR TEMPS A BIG DISCREPANCY
BETWEEN THE CURRENT MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT WITH THE
CURRENT MAV GUIDANCE PROBABLY TO WARM DUE TO THE POSITION OF THE
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH COMBINED WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT. LATEST THICKNESS VALUES FROM
BOTH THE PHYSICAL GFS AND ECMWF ALSO SUPPORT THIS REASONING. FOR NOW
WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE MID 50S FOR MOST OF THE CWFA WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF THE UPPER 50S OVER MOST AREAS IN NWFL. AS FOR LOW
TEMPS TONIGHT DUE TO THE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER OVER THE REGION WILL
LEAN TOWARDS THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT GOING A DEGREE
OR TWO HIGHER FOR MOST AREAS, AS A RESULT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S FOR MOST OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWFA AND
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S FURTHER SOUTH. 32/EE

FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER TROF OVER THE PLAINS
AMPLIFIES SIGNIFICANTLY INTO A LONGWAVE TROF MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT WHILE A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ARE EJECTED DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.  AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND BRINGS A TRAILING COLD FRONT
TOWARDS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY LATE MONDAY NIGHT.  THERE
IS INCREASED CONFIDENCE NOW ON A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER TEXAS
ON THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON MONDAY WHICH WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT
FEATURE FOR TUESDAY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD.  A SURFACE RIDGE
REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES ON SUNDAY THEN WEAKENS
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT/TEXAS
SURFACE LOW.  THE SERIES OF SHORTWAVES IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER
THE REGION INTERACT WITH A PREEXISTING INVERTED SURFACE TROF OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF AND THE SOUTHEAST STATES SURFACE RIDGE TO PRODUCE
MODERATE ISENTROPIC LIFT SEEN IN THE 290-300K LAYER SUNDAY WHICH
STRENGTHENS SOMEWHAT SUNDAY NIGHT.  BASED ON CONDENSATION PRESSURE
DEFICITS IN THE 290-300K LAYER...THE BEST POPS WILL BE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.  WITH
IMPROVING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IN THIS PORTION AND THE INCREASING
ISENTROPIC LIFT...WILL HAVE CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS ON SUNDAY FOR
MOST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA TAPERING TO SLIGHT
CHANCE OVER THE NORTHWEST PORTION...THEN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT WILL HAVE
LIKELY POPS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION AND CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE
POPS FOR THE REMAINING PORTION.

THE ISENTROPIC LIFT WEAKENS ON MONDAY WITH BOTH THE WEAKENING OF THE
SOUTHEAST STATES SURFACE RIDGE AND THE BREAKDOWN OF THE NORTHERN
GULF INVERTED SURFACE TROF...AND WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR THE
EASTERN PORTION TAPERING TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE WESTERN
THIRD.  ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT WHILE DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES FURTHER ACROSS THE AREA AND WILL HAVE
CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS WITH THE HIGHEST POPS NEAR THE COAST
WHERE THE BEST DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT.  THE LAND
PORTION OF THE AREA REMAINS STABLE AND HAVE KEPT THUNDER OUT OF THE
FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH EXPECT ISOLATED EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE MARINE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.  HIGHS
ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 60 INLAND TO LOWER 60S CLOSER TO THE
COAST THEN WARMER TEMPERATURES FOLLOW FOR MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID 60S INLAND RANGING TO UPPER 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST.  LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S INLAND TO LOWER 50S
CLOSER TO THE COAST...THEN IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S MONDAY NIGHT. /29

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...THE PLAINS LONGWAVE TROF
ADVANCES SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT THEN TAKES ON A
NEGATIVE TILT WHILE ADVANCING INTO THE EASTERN STATES ON WEDNESDAY.
THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE LOCATED NEAR THE SABINE RIVER VALLEY OR
EXTREME EASTERN TEXAS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND ADVANCES
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.  THE 850 MB JET INCREASES
TO 35-45 KNOTS ON TUESDAY AND A LINE OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...EXITING TO THE
EAST POSSIBLY AS LATE AS TUESDAY EVENING.  CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED
WITH TIMING FOR THIS SYSTEM AND HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS
THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH LIKELY POPS FOR THE EASTERN PORTION TUESDAY
NIGHT.  IT LOOKS PROBABLE THAT 0-3 KM MUCAPES OF 500 J/KG WILL BE
PRESENT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS LINE OF STORMS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF
0-1 KM HELICITY OF 150 M2/S2...SUFFICIENT TO ADD MENTION OF
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SEVERE STORMS FOR TUESDAY TO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK. DRY CONDITIONS FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE THEN SMALL POPS RETURN FOR FRIDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
ADVANCES FROM THE PLAINS. /29

MARINE...A WEAKLY ORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST AND SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND.
AS A RESULT A MODERATE NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL THEN
DIMINISH LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE SURFACE LOW TO THE
SOUTH CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS WILL BUILD ON
TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO A STRONGER COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE MARINE AREA
BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT LEADING TO A STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW OVER
THE MARINE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL BE LIKELY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT BY MIDWEEK.
32/EE

AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE...MOSTLY LIFR TO IFR CIGS THROUGH 20.15Z FOLLOWED BY
IFR TO MVFR CIGS THROUGH 21.12Z. LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN WILL
SHIFT EAST AND SOUTH LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON. LOWERING
CIGS WITH LIGHT DRIZZLE POSSIBLE REDEVELOPS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SUN
MORNING. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE NORTHEAST AT 8 TO 10 KNOTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS THROUGH 21.12Z. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      55  48  63  53  69 /  40  10  30  50  20
PENSACOLA   58  50  63  55  69 /  40  20  50  70  40
DESTIN      59  53  62  57  68 /  30  20  60  70  40
EVERGREEN   56  44  60  49  67 /  40  10  30  50  30
WAYNESBORO  55  40  60  47  66 /  30  10  20  30  20
CAMDEN      56  41  60  47  65 /  30  10  20  40  30
CRESTVIEW   58  48  63  52  69 /  50  20  50  70  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMOB 201010
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
410 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT...DAMPENING SHORT WAVE TROUGH  MOVING EAST OVER THE CENTRAL
GULF STATES THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST REACHING THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. TO THE SOUTH BROAD
SURFACE LOW ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL WEAKENS AS UPPER ENERGY MOVES
EAST. BOTH THE LOW CENTER AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOK TO MAINTAIN
CONTINUITY OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH TONIGHT DRIFTING FURTHER
SOUTHWARD FROM THE COAST THROUGH 12Z SUN. AS THIS SYSTEM DRIFTS
SOUTHWARD THE BETTER COVERAGE OF RAIN SHIFTS SOUTH AND EAST LATE
THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED COVERAGE CONTINUING
OVER THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. FURTHER WEST A
DEEPENING UPPER TROF MOVES EASTWARD OVER MUCH OF TX BY 12Z SUN
SETTING THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF MEASURABLE PRECIP LATE SUN
INTO MON. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT WITH RAIN CHANCES DECREASING GENERALLY FROM
THE NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT. AS FOR TEMPS A BIG DISCREPANCY
BETWEEN THE CURRENT MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT WITH THE
CURRENT MAV GUIDANCE PROBABLY TO WARM DUE TO THE POSITION OF THE
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH COMBINED WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT. LATEST THICKNESS VALUES FROM
BOTH THE PHYSICAL GFS AND ECMWF ALSO SUPPORT THIS REASONING. FOR NOW
WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE MID 50S FOR MOST OF THE CWFA WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF THE UPPER 50S OVER MOST AREAS IN NWFL. AS FOR LOW
TEMPS TONIGHT DUE TO THE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER OVER THE REGION WILL
LEAN TOWARDS THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT GOING A DEGREE
OR TWO HIGHER FOR MOST AREAS, AS A RESULT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S FOR MOST OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWFA AND
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S FURTHER SOUTH. 32/EE

FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER TROF OVER THE PLAINS
AMPLIFIES SIGNIFICANTLY INTO A LONGWAVE TROF MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT WHILE A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ARE EJECTED DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.  AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND BRINGS A TRAILING COLD FRONT
TOWARDS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY LATE MONDAY NIGHT.  THERE
IS INCREASED CONFIDENCE NOW ON A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER TEXAS
ON THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON MONDAY WHICH WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT
FEATURE FOR TUESDAY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD.  A SURFACE RIDGE
REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES ON SUNDAY THEN WEAKENS
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT/TEXAS
SURFACE LOW.  THE SERIES OF SHORTWAVES IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER
THE REGION INTERACT WITH A PREEXISTING INVERTED SURFACE TROF OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF AND THE SOUTHEAST STATES SURFACE RIDGE TO PRODUCE
MODERATE ISENTROPIC LIFT SEEN IN THE 290-300K LAYER SUNDAY WHICH
STRENGTHENS SOMEWHAT SUNDAY NIGHT.  BASED ON CONDENSATION PRESSURE
DEFICITS IN THE 290-300K LAYER...THE BEST POPS WILL BE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.  WITH
IMPROVING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IN THIS PORTION AND THE INCREASING
ISENTROPIC LIFT...WILL HAVE CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS ON SUNDAY FOR
MOST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA TAPERING TO SLIGHT
CHANCE OVER THE NORTHWEST PORTION...THEN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT WILL HAVE
LIKELY POPS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION AND CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE
POPS FOR THE REMAINING PORTION.

THE ISENTROPIC LIFT WEAKENS ON MONDAY WITH BOTH THE WEAKENING OF THE
SOUTHEAST STATES SURFACE RIDGE AND THE BREAKDOWN OF THE NORTHERN
GULF INVERTED SURFACE TROF...AND WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR THE
EASTERN PORTION TAPERING TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE WESTERN
THIRD.  ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT WHILE DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES FURTHER ACROSS THE AREA AND WILL HAVE
CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS WITH THE HIGHEST POPS NEAR THE COAST
WHERE THE BEST DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT.  THE LAND
PORTION OF THE AREA REMAINS STABLE AND HAVE KEPT THUNDER OUT OF THE
FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH EXPECT ISOLATED EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE MARINE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.  HIGHS
ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 60 INLAND TO LOWER 60S CLOSER TO THE
COAST THEN WARMER TEMPERATURES FOLLOW FOR MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID 60S INLAND RANGING TO UPPER 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST.  LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S INLAND TO LOWER 50S
CLOSER TO THE COAST...THEN IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S MONDAY NIGHT. /29

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...THE PLAINS LONGWAVE TROF
ADVANCES SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT THEN TAKES ON A
NEGATIVE TILT WHILE ADVANCING INTO THE EASTERN STATES ON WEDNESDAY.
THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE LOCATED NEAR THE SABINE RIVER VALLEY OR
EXTREME EASTERN TEXAS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND ADVANCES
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.  THE 850 MB JET INCREASES
TO 35-45 KNOTS ON TUESDAY AND A LINE OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...EXITING TO THE
EAST POSSIBLY AS LATE AS TUESDAY EVENING.  CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED
WITH TIMING FOR THIS SYSTEM AND HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS
THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH LIKELY POPS FOR THE EASTERN PORTION TUESDAY
NIGHT.  IT LOOKS PROBABLE THAT 0-3 KM MUCAPES OF 500 J/KG WILL BE
PRESENT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS LINE OF STORMS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF
0-1 KM HELICITY OF 150 M2/S2...SUFFICIENT TO ADD MENTION OF
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SEVERE STORMS FOR TUESDAY TO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK. DRY CONDITIONS FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE THEN SMALL POPS RETURN FOR FRIDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
ADVANCES FROM THE PLAINS. /29

&&

.MARINE...A WEAKLY ORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST AND SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND.
AS A RESULT A MODERATE NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL THEN
DIMINISH LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE SURFACE LOW TO THE
SOUTH CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS WILL BUILD ON
TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO A STRONGER COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE MARINE AREA
BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT LEADING TO A STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW OVER
THE MARINE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL BE LIKELY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT BY MIDWEEK.
32/EE

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE...MOSTLY LIFR TO IFR CIGS THROUGH 20.15Z FOLLOWED BY
IFR TO MVFR CIGS THROUGH 21.12Z. LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN WILL
SHIFT EAST AND SOUTH LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON. LOWERING
CIGS WITH LIGHT DRIZZLE POSSIBLE REDEVELOPS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SUN
MORNING. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE NORTHEAST AT 8 TO 10 KNOTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS THROUGH 21.12Z. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      55  48  63  53  69 /  40  10  30  50  20
PENSACOLA   58  50  63  55  69 /  40  20  50  70  40
DESTIN      59  53  62  57  68 /  30  20  60  70  40
EVERGREEN   56  44  60  49  67 /  40  10  30  50  30
WAYNESBORO  55  40  60  47  66 /  30  10  20  30  20
CAMDEN      56  41  60  47  65 /  30  10  20  40  30
CRESTVIEW   58  48  63  52  69 /  50  20  50  70  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMOB 201010
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
410 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT...DAMPENING SHORT WAVE TROUGH  MOVING EAST OVER THE CENTRAL
GULF STATES THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST REACHING THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. TO THE SOUTH BROAD
SURFACE LOW ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL WEAKENS AS UPPER ENERGY MOVES
EAST. BOTH THE LOW CENTER AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOK TO MAINTAIN
CONTINUITY OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH TONIGHT DRIFTING FURTHER
SOUTHWARD FROM THE COAST THROUGH 12Z SUN. AS THIS SYSTEM DRIFTS
SOUTHWARD THE BETTER COVERAGE OF RAIN SHIFTS SOUTH AND EAST LATE
THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED COVERAGE CONTINUING
OVER THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. FURTHER WEST A
DEEPENING UPPER TROF MOVES EASTWARD OVER MUCH OF TX BY 12Z SUN
SETTING THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF MEASURABLE PRECIP LATE SUN
INTO MON. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT WITH RAIN CHANCES DECREASING GENERALLY FROM
THE NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT. AS FOR TEMPS A BIG DISCREPANCY
BETWEEN THE CURRENT MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT WITH THE
CURRENT MAV GUIDANCE PROBABLY TO WARM DUE TO THE POSITION OF THE
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH COMBINED WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT. LATEST THICKNESS VALUES FROM
BOTH THE PHYSICAL GFS AND ECMWF ALSO SUPPORT THIS REASONING. FOR NOW
WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE MID 50S FOR MOST OF THE CWFA WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF THE UPPER 50S OVER MOST AREAS IN NWFL. AS FOR LOW
TEMPS TONIGHT DUE TO THE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER OVER THE REGION WILL
LEAN TOWARDS THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT GOING A DEGREE
OR TWO HIGHER FOR MOST AREAS, AS A RESULT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S FOR MOST OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWFA AND
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S FURTHER SOUTH. 32/EE

FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER TROF OVER THE PLAINS
AMPLIFIES SIGNIFICANTLY INTO A LONGWAVE TROF MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT WHILE A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ARE EJECTED DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.  AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND BRINGS A TRAILING COLD FRONT
TOWARDS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY LATE MONDAY NIGHT.  THERE
IS INCREASED CONFIDENCE NOW ON A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER TEXAS
ON THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON MONDAY WHICH WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT
FEATURE FOR TUESDAY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD.  A SURFACE RIDGE
REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES ON SUNDAY THEN WEAKENS
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT/TEXAS
SURFACE LOW.  THE SERIES OF SHORTWAVES IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER
THE REGION INTERACT WITH A PREEXISTING INVERTED SURFACE TROF OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF AND THE SOUTHEAST STATES SURFACE RIDGE TO PRODUCE
MODERATE ISENTROPIC LIFT SEEN IN THE 290-300K LAYER SUNDAY WHICH
STRENGTHENS SOMEWHAT SUNDAY NIGHT.  BASED ON CONDENSATION PRESSURE
DEFICITS IN THE 290-300K LAYER...THE BEST POPS WILL BE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.  WITH
IMPROVING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IN THIS PORTION AND THE INCREASING
ISENTROPIC LIFT...WILL HAVE CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS ON SUNDAY FOR
MOST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA TAPERING TO SLIGHT
CHANCE OVER THE NORTHWEST PORTION...THEN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT WILL HAVE
LIKELY POPS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION AND CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE
POPS FOR THE REMAINING PORTION.

THE ISENTROPIC LIFT WEAKENS ON MONDAY WITH BOTH THE WEAKENING OF THE
SOUTHEAST STATES SURFACE RIDGE AND THE BREAKDOWN OF THE NORTHERN
GULF INVERTED SURFACE TROF...AND WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR THE
EASTERN PORTION TAPERING TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE WESTERN
THIRD.  ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT WHILE DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES FURTHER ACROSS THE AREA AND WILL HAVE
CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS WITH THE HIGHEST POPS NEAR THE COAST
WHERE THE BEST DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT.  THE LAND
PORTION OF THE AREA REMAINS STABLE AND HAVE KEPT THUNDER OUT OF THE
FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH EXPECT ISOLATED EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE MARINE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.  HIGHS
ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 60 INLAND TO LOWER 60S CLOSER TO THE
COAST THEN WARMER TEMPERATURES FOLLOW FOR MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID 60S INLAND RANGING TO UPPER 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST.  LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S INLAND TO LOWER 50S
CLOSER TO THE COAST...THEN IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S MONDAY NIGHT. /29

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...THE PLAINS LONGWAVE TROF
ADVANCES SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT THEN TAKES ON A
NEGATIVE TILT WHILE ADVANCING INTO THE EASTERN STATES ON WEDNESDAY.
THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE LOCATED NEAR THE SABINE RIVER VALLEY OR
EXTREME EASTERN TEXAS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND ADVANCES
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.  THE 850 MB JET INCREASES
TO 35-45 KNOTS ON TUESDAY AND A LINE OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...EXITING TO THE
EAST POSSIBLY AS LATE AS TUESDAY EVENING.  CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED
WITH TIMING FOR THIS SYSTEM AND HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS
THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH LIKELY POPS FOR THE EASTERN PORTION TUESDAY
NIGHT.  IT LOOKS PROBABLE THAT 0-3 KM MUCAPES OF 500 J/KG WILL BE
PRESENT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS LINE OF STORMS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF
0-1 KM HELICITY OF 150 M2/S2...SUFFICIENT TO ADD MENTION OF
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SEVERE STORMS FOR TUESDAY TO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK. DRY CONDITIONS FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE THEN SMALL POPS RETURN FOR FRIDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
ADVANCES FROM THE PLAINS. /29

&&

.MARINE...A WEAKLY ORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST AND SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND.
AS A RESULT A MODERATE NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL THEN
DIMINISH LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE SURFACE LOW TO THE
SOUTH CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS WILL BUILD ON
TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO A STRONGER COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE MARINE AREA
BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT LEADING TO A STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW OVER
THE MARINE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL BE LIKELY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT BY MIDWEEK.
32/EE

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE...MOSTLY LIFR TO IFR CIGS THROUGH 20.15Z FOLLOWED BY
IFR TO MVFR CIGS THROUGH 21.12Z. LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN WILL
SHIFT EAST AND SOUTH LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON. LOWERING
CIGS WITH LIGHT DRIZZLE POSSIBLE REDEVELOPS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SUN
MORNING. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE NORTHEAST AT 8 TO 10 KNOTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS THROUGH 21.12Z. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      55  48  63  53  69 /  40  10  30  50  20
PENSACOLA   58  50  63  55  69 /  40  20  50  70  40
DESTIN      59  53  62  57  68 /  30  20  60  70  40
EVERGREEN   56  44  60  49  67 /  40  10  30  50  30
WAYNESBORO  55  40  60  47  66 /  30  10  20  30  20
CAMDEN      56  41  60  47  65 /  30  10  20  40  30
CRESTVIEW   58  48  63  52  69 /  50  20  50  70  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMOB 200541
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1141 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...RAINS HAVE CERTAINLY DECREASED IN INTENSITY AND SLIGHTLY
DECREASED IN COVERAGE LATE THIS EVENING...BUT INTERMITTENT LIGHT
RAINS ARE STILL LIKELY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHT. AS SUCH...HAVE LEFT THE RAIN CHANCES FOR TONIGHT THE SAME
AS EARLIER ADVERTISED...GENERALLY IN THE 70-80 PERCENT CATEGORY.
TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR EXPECTED LOWS AT THIS TIME...BUT WITH WIND AND
CLOUD COVER (AS WELL AS CONTINUED RAINFALL) SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPS
FAIRLY STEADY FROM HERE ON OUT TONIGHT...SO WILL NOT MAKE ANY
ADJUSTMENTS THERE EITHER. 12/DS

&&

.AVIATION...20.06Z TAF CYCLE...INTERMINTTENT LIGHT TO OCNLY MODERATE
RAIN WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VISBYS IN LOW
CLOUDS...RAIN AND LIGHT FOG. THIS OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN IS STILL
EXPECTED TO LAST INTO SATURDAY MORNING...ENDING DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND TRANSITIONING FROM MVFR AND FINALLY VFR LEVELS FROM WEST TO EAST
GOING INTO SATURDAY EVENING. 12/DS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON]...A SECOND GROUP OF
UPPER ENERGY IS APPROACHING THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON... WITH THE NEXT ROUND OF RAIN OVERSPREADING THE FA ATTM.
THIS ISENTROPICALLY DRIVEN RAIN IS NORTH OF A SURFACE FRONT OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST. WITH TWO MAIN PIECES OF ENERGY WITH THIS SECOND
ROUND...DO FEEL THERE WILL BE A SMALL WINDOW OF DECREASED
COVERAGE...BUT AM HAVING A HARD TIME PINNING IT DOWN DUE TO THE
FLUID NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM. GFS IS ADVERTISING THE RAIN ENDING
SOONEST...WITH THE NAM AND ECMWF HANGING ON TO THE RAIN LONGER. HAVE
WENT IN THE MIDDLE WITH THE TIMING OF THE RAIN ENDING. FEEL LAST
REMNANTS OF RAIN WILL BE EAST OF I65 BY NOON SATURDAY.

WITH ALL THE RAIN AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER...HAVE WENT WITH A
TIGHTER THAN EXPECTED TEMP RANGE. WITH THE GFS ADVERTISING THE RAIN
ENDING SOONEST...IT IS...AS EXPECTED THE WARMEST GUIDANCE. HAVE
BUMPED THE GFS NUMBERS DOWN...THOUGH NOT AS COOL AS THE NAM AND
ECMWF WOULD SUGGEST. /16

[SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY]...A WEAKLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE OVER THE ROCKIES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND
STRENGTHEN OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON SUNDAY. AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE WILL FORM OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...BUT THE LARGE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WILL MAINLY PERSIST BUT SHIFT
SLIGHTLY EASTWARD. MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES WILL REMAIN
WITH RAIN CHANCES ONCE AGAIN INCREASING SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMB TO BETWEEN 0.9 TO 1.4 INCHES...
ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-65. EXPECT ISOLATED PRECIP SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED COVERAGE WEST OF I-65 THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM...WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
COVERAGE EAST OF I-65.

LOWS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS WILL FALL INTO THE 40S INLAND
AREAS...WITH LOW TO MID 50S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS.
HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM 58 TO 64 DEGREES. /22

LONG TERM [MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY]...THE PLAINS LONGWAVE TROF
CONTINUES TO DEEPEN THROUGH TUESDAY THEN TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT
WHILE ADVANCING INTO THE EASTERN STATES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  A
SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MOVES OFF TO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH TUESDAY...LIKELY OCCLUDING WITH THE UPPER
TROF IN THE PROCESS AND BRINGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE GULF COAST
STATES WHICH MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY EVENING.  A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW MAY DEVELOP ON THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER TEXAS ON MONDAY AND ADVANCE EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF
COAST STATES WITH THE ADVANCING FRONT.  THE BEST DEEP LAYER LIFT
LOOKS TO OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT ON TUESDAY OVER THE FORECAST
AREA...AND IN A REGION OF 0-1 KM HELICITY VALUES OF 100-150 M2/S2
AND 0-3 KM MUCAPES NEAR 500 J/KG.  THIS IS SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE
FOR STRONG STORM DEVELOPMENT BUT FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN WORDING OF
SOME STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE FOR TUESDAY IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK.  WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ON MONDAY
INCREASING TO GOOD CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING.  CHANCE POPS FOLLOW FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT THEN DRY CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. /29

AVIATION...
19.18Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF CYCLE
A LULL IN THE RAIN WILL BE SHORT TERM AS THE FIRST OF SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES MOVE OFF. ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR...THEN IFR CIGS/VISBYS
WILL MOVE IN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS A SECOND ROUND OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY APPROACHES. AM EXPECTING THIS ROUND TO LAST OVERNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING...THEN EASE TO MVFR AND VFR LEVELS FROM THE WEST.
/16

MARINE...A SURFACE BOUNDARY STRETCHING SW-NE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEX WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAIN BEFORE
GETTING GETTING DRAWN NORTH LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A STRONG
SYSTEM PASSING OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL PUSH A STRONG FRONT BACK OVER AREA COASTAL WATERS. EACH
OF THE PRECEDING PIECES OF ENERGY WITH TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
OVER AREA COASTAL WATERS. THE FIRST WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT...THE NEXT SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. GUIDANCE IS
ADVERTISING SPEEDS RISING TO EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS WITH THESE
SHORTWAVES. SMALL CRAFT LEVELS WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH AND BEHIND
THE FRONT TUESDAY THROUGH MID WEEK. /16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      46  56  48  62  50 /  80  50  20  40  50
PENSACOLA   49  59  51  63  54 /  70  30  20  50  70
DESTIN      51  60  52  63  58 /  60  30  20  60  70
EVERGREEN   45  57  44  59  48 /  90  50  20  40  50
WAYNESBORO  43  56  41  60  43 /  80  40  10  30  30
CAMDEN      44  57  41  58  44 /  90  50  10  40  40
CRESTVIEW   47  59  48  63  51 /  70  40  20  50  70

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KMOB 200541
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1141 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...RAINS HAVE CERTAINLY DECREASED IN INTENSITY AND SLIGHTLY
DECREASED IN COVERAGE LATE THIS EVENING...BUT INTERMITTENT LIGHT
RAINS ARE STILL LIKELY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHT. AS SUCH...HAVE LEFT THE RAIN CHANCES FOR TONIGHT THE SAME
AS EARLIER ADVERTISED...GENERALLY IN THE 70-80 PERCENT CATEGORY.
TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR EXPECTED LOWS AT THIS TIME...BUT WITH WIND AND
CLOUD COVER (AS WELL AS CONTINUED RAINFALL) SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPS
FAIRLY STEADY FROM HERE ON OUT TONIGHT...SO WILL NOT MAKE ANY
ADJUSTMENTS THERE EITHER. 12/DS

&&

.AVIATION...20.06Z TAF CYCLE...INTERMINTTENT LIGHT TO OCNLY MODERATE
RAIN WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VISBYS IN LOW
CLOUDS...RAIN AND LIGHT FOG. THIS OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN IS STILL
EXPECTED TO LAST INTO SATURDAY MORNING...ENDING DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND TRANSITIONING FROM MVFR AND FINALLY VFR LEVELS FROM WEST TO EAST
GOING INTO SATURDAY EVENING. 12/DS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON]...A SECOND GROUP OF
UPPER ENERGY IS APPROACHING THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON... WITH THE NEXT ROUND OF RAIN OVERSPREADING THE FA ATTM.
THIS ISENTROPICALLY DRIVEN RAIN IS NORTH OF A SURFACE FRONT OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST. WITH TWO MAIN PIECES OF ENERGY WITH THIS SECOND
ROUND...DO FEEL THERE WILL BE A SMALL WINDOW OF DECREASED
COVERAGE...BUT AM HAVING A HARD TIME PINNING IT DOWN DUE TO THE
FLUID NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM. GFS IS ADVERTISING THE RAIN ENDING
SOONEST...WITH THE NAM AND ECMWF HANGING ON TO THE RAIN LONGER. HAVE
WENT IN THE MIDDLE WITH THE TIMING OF THE RAIN ENDING. FEEL LAST
REMNANTS OF RAIN WILL BE EAST OF I65 BY NOON SATURDAY.

WITH ALL THE RAIN AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER...HAVE WENT WITH A
TIGHTER THAN EXPECTED TEMP RANGE. WITH THE GFS ADVERTISING THE RAIN
ENDING SOONEST...IT IS...AS EXPECTED THE WARMEST GUIDANCE. HAVE
BUMPED THE GFS NUMBERS DOWN...THOUGH NOT AS COOL AS THE NAM AND
ECMWF WOULD SUGGEST. /16

[SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY]...A WEAKLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE OVER THE ROCKIES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND
STRENGTHEN OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON SUNDAY. AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE WILL FORM OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...BUT THE LARGE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WILL MAINLY PERSIST BUT SHIFT
SLIGHTLY EASTWARD. MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES WILL REMAIN
WITH RAIN CHANCES ONCE AGAIN INCREASING SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMB TO BETWEEN 0.9 TO 1.4 INCHES...
ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-65. EXPECT ISOLATED PRECIP SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED COVERAGE WEST OF I-65 THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM...WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
COVERAGE EAST OF I-65.

LOWS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS WILL FALL INTO THE 40S INLAND
AREAS...WITH LOW TO MID 50S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS.
HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM 58 TO 64 DEGREES. /22

LONG TERM [MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY]...THE PLAINS LONGWAVE TROF
CONTINUES TO DEEPEN THROUGH TUESDAY THEN TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT
WHILE ADVANCING INTO THE EASTERN STATES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  A
SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MOVES OFF TO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH TUESDAY...LIKELY OCCLUDING WITH THE UPPER
TROF IN THE PROCESS AND BRINGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE GULF COAST
STATES WHICH MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY EVENING.  A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW MAY DEVELOP ON THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER TEXAS ON MONDAY AND ADVANCE EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF
COAST STATES WITH THE ADVANCING FRONT.  THE BEST DEEP LAYER LIFT
LOOKS TO OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT ON TUESDAY OVER THE FORECAST
AREA...AND IN A REGION OF 0-1 KM HELICITY VALUES OF 100-150 M2/S2
AND 0-3 KM MUCAPES NEAR 500 J/KG.  THIS IS SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE
FOR STRONG STORM DEVELOPMENT BUT FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN WORDING OF
SOME STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE FOR TUESDAY IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK.  WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ON MONDAY
INCREASING TO GOOD CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING.  CHANCE POPS FOLLOW FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT THEN DRY CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. /29

AVIATION...
19.18Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF CYCLE
A LULL IN THE RAIN WILL BE SHORT TERM AS THE FIRST OF SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES MOVE OFF. ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR...THEN IFR CIGS/VISBYS
WILL MOVE IN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS A SECOND ROUND OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY APPROACHES. AM EXPECTING THIS ROUND TO LAST OVERNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING...THEN EASE TO MVFR AND VFR LEVELS FROM THE WEST.
/16

MARINE...A SURFACE BOUNDARY STRETCHING SW-NE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEX WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAIN BEFORE
GETTING GETTING DRAWN NORTH LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A STRONG
SYSTEM PASSING OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL PUSH A STRONG FRONT BACK OVER AREA COASTAL WATERS. EACH
OF THE PRECEDING PIECES OF ENERGY WITH TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
OVER AREA COASTAL WATERS. THE FIRST WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT...THE NEXT SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. GUIDANCE IS
ADVERTISING SPEEDS RISING TO EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS WITH THESE
SHORTWAVES. SMALL CRAFT LEVELS WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH AND BEHIND
THE FRONT TUESDAY THROUGH MID WEEK. /16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      46  56  48  62  50 /  80  50  20  40  50
PENSACOLA   49  59  51  63  54 /  70  30  20  50  70
DESTIN      51  60  52  63  58 /  60  30  20  60  70
EVERGREEN   45  57  44  59  48 /  90  50  20  40  50
WAYNESBORO  43  56  41  60  43 /  80  40  10  30  30
CAMDEN      44  57  41  58  44 /  90  50  10  40  40
CRESTVIEW   47  59  48  63  51 /  70  40  20  50  70

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$











000
FXUS64 KMOB 192207
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
407 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON]...A SECOND GROUP OF
UPPER ENERGY IS APPROACHING THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON... WITH THE NEXT ROUND OF RAIN OVERSPREADING THE FA ATTM.
THIS ISENTROPICALLY DRIVEN RAIN IS NORTH OF A SURFACE FRONT OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST. WITH TWO MAIN PIECES OF ENERGY WITH THIS SECOND
ROUND...DO FEEL THERE WILL BE A SMALL WINDOW OF DECREASED
COVERAGE...BUT AM HAVING A HARD TIME PINNING IT DOWN DUE TO THE
FLUID NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM. GFS IS ADVERTISING THE RAIN ENDING
SOONEST...WITH THE NAM AND ECMWF HANGING ON TO THE RAIN LONGER. HAVE
WENT IN THE MIDDLE WITH THE TIMING OF THE RAIN ENDING. FEEL LAST
REMNANTS OF RAIN WILL BE EAST OF I65 BY NOON SATURDAY.

WITH ALL THE RAIN AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER...HAVE WENT WITH A
TIGHTER THAN EXPECTED TEMP RANGE. WITH THE GFS ADVERTISING THE RAIN
ENDING SOONEST...IT IS...AS EXPECTED THE WARMEST GUIDANCE. HAVE
BUMPED THE GFS NUMBERS DOWN...THOUGH NOT AS COOL AS THE NAM AND
ECMWF WOULD SUGGEST. /16

[SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY]...A WEAKLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE OVER THE ROCKIES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND
STRENGTHEN OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON SUNDAY. AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE WILL FORM OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...BUT THE LARGE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WILL MAINLY PERSIST BUT SHIFT
SLIGHTLY EASTWARD. MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES WILL REMAIN
WITH RAIN CHANCES ONCE AGAIN INCREASING SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMB TO BETWEEN 0.9 TO 1.4 INCHES...
ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-65. EXPECT ISOLATED PRECIP SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED COVERAGE WEST OF I-65 THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM...WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
COVERAGE EAST OF I-65.

LOWS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS WILL FALL INTO THE 40S INLAND
AREAS...WITH LOW TO MID 50S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS.
HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM 58 TO 64 DEGREES. /22

.LONG TERM [MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY]...THE PLAINS LONGWAVE TROF
CONTINUES TO DEEPEN THROUGH TUESDAY THEN TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT
WHILE ADVANCING INTO THE EASTERN STATES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  A
SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MOVES OFF TO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH TUESDAY...LIKELY OCCLUDING WITH THE UPPER
TROF IN THE PROCESS AND BRINGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE GULF COAST
STATES WHICH MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY EVENING.  A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW MAY DEVELOP ON THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER TEXAS ON MONDAY AND ADVANCE EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF
COAST STATES WITH THE ADVANCING FRONT.  THE BEST DEEP LAYER LIFT
LOOKS TO OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT ON TUESDAY OVER THE FORECAST
AREA...AND IN A REGION OF 0-1 KM HELICITY VALUES OF 100-150 M2/S2
AND 0-3 KM MUCAPES NEAR 500 J/KG.  THIS IS SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE
FOR STRONG STORM DEVELOPMENT BUT FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN WORDING OF
SOME STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE FOR TUESDAY IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK.  WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ON MONDAY
INCREASING TO GOOD CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING.  CHANCE POPS FOLLOW FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT THEN DRY CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. /29

&&

.AVIATION...
19.18Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF CYCLE
A LULL IN THE RAIN WILL BE SHORT TERM AS THE FIRST OF SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES MOVE OFF. ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR...THEN IFR CIGS/VISBYS
WILL MOVE IN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS A SECOND ROUND OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY APPROACHES. AM EXPECTING THIS ROUND TO LAST OVERNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING...THEN EASE TO MVFR AND VFR LEVELS FROM THE WEST.
/16

&&

.MARINE...A SURFACE BOUNDARY STRETCHING SW-NE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEX WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAIN BEFORE
GETTING GETTING DRAWN NORTH LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A STRONG
SYSTEM PASSING OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL PUSH A STRONG FRONT BACK OVER AREA COASTAL WATERS. EACH
OF THE PRECEDING PIECES OF ENERGY WITH TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
OVER AREA COASTAL WATERS. THE FIRST WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT...THE NEXT SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. GUIDANCE IS
ADVERTISING SPEEDS RISING TO EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS WITH THESE
SHORTWAVES. SMALL CRAFT LEVELS WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH AND BEHIND
THE FRONT TUESDAY THROUGH MID WEEK. /16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      46  56  48  62  50 /  80  50  20  40  50
PENSACOLA   49  59  51  63  54 /  70  30  20  50  70
DESTIN      51  60  52  63  58 /  60  30  20  60  70
EVERGREEN   45  57  44  59  48 /  90  50  20  40  50
WAYNESBORO  43  56  41  60  43 /  80  40  10  30  30
CAMDEN      44  57  41  58  44 /  90  50  10  40  40
CRESTVIEW   47  59  48  63  51 /  70  40  20  50  70

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMOB 192207
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
407 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON]...A SECOND GROUP OF
UPPER ENERGY IS APPROACHING THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON... WITH THE NEXT ROUND OF RAIN OVERSPREADING THE FA ATTM.
THIS ISENTROPICALLY DRIVEN RAIN IS NORTH OF A SURFACE FRONT OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST. WITH TWO MAIN PIECES OF ENERGY WITH THIS SECOND
ROUND...DO FEEL THERE WILL BE A SMALL WINDOW OF DECREASED
COVERAGE...BUT AM HAVING A HARD TIME PINNING IT DOWN DUE TO THE
FLUID NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM. GFS IS ADVERTISING THE RAIN ENDING
SOONEST...WITH THE NAM AND ECMWF HANGING ON TO THE RAIN LONGER. HAVE
WENT IN THE MIDDLE WITH THE TIMING OF THE RAIN ENDING. FEEL LAST
REMNANTS OF RAIN WILL BE EAST OF I65 BY NOON SATURDAY.

WITH ALL THE RAIN AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER...HAVE WENT WITH A
TIGHTER THAN EXPECTED TEMP RANGE. WITH THE GFS ADVERTISING THE RAIN
ENDING SOONEST...IT IS...AS EXPECTED THE WARMEST GUIDANCE. HAVE
BUMPED THE GFS NUMBERS DOWN...THOUGH NOT AS COOL AS THE NAM AND
ECMWF WOULD SUGGEST. /16

[SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY]...A WEAKLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE OVER THE ROCKIES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND
STRENGTHEN OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON SUNDAY. AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE WILL FORM OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...BUT THE LARGE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WILL MAINLY PERSIST BUT SHIFT
SLIGHTLY EASTWARD. MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES WILL REMAIN
WITH RAIN CHANCES ONCE AGAIN INCREASING SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMB TO BETWEEN 0.9 TO 1.4 INCHES...
ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-65. EXPECT ISOLATED PRECIP SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED COVERAGE WEST OF I-65 THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM...WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
COVERAGE EAST OF I-65.

LOWS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS WILL FALL INTO THE 40S INLAND
AREAS...WITH LOW TO MID 50S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS.
HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM 58 TO 64 DEGREES. /22

.LONG TERM [MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY]...THE PLAINS LONGWAVE TROF
CONTINUES TO DEEPEN THROUGH TUESDAY THEN TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT
WHILE ADVANCING INTO THE EASTERN STATES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  A
SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MOVES OFF TO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH TUESDAY...LIKELY OCCLUDING WITH THE UPPER
TROF IN THE PROCESS AND BRINGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE GULF COAST
STATES WHICH MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY EVENING.  A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW MAY DEVELOP ON THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER TEXAS ON MONDAY AND ADVANCE EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF
COAST STATES WITH THE ADVANCING FRONT.  THE BEST DEEP LAYER LIFT
LOOKS TO OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT ON TUESDAY OVER THE FORECAST
AREA...AND IN A REGION OF 0-1 KM HELICITY VALUES OF 100-150 M2/S2
AND 0-3 KM MUCAPES NEAR 500 J/KG.  THIS IS SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE
FOR STRONG STORM DEVELOPMENT BUT FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN WORDING OF
SOME STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE FOR TUESDAY IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK.  WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ON MONDAY
INCREASING TO GOOD CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING.  CHANCE POPS FOLLOW FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT THEN DRY CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. /29

&&

.AVIATION...
19.18Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF CYCLE
A LULL IN THE RAIN WILL BE SHORT TERM AS THE FIRST OF SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES MOVE OFF. ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR...THEN IFR CIGS/VISBYS
WILL MOVE IN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS A SECOND ROUND OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY APPROACHES. AM EXPECTING THIS ROUND TO LAST OVERNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING...THEN EASE TO MVFR AND VFR LEVELS FROM THE WEST.
/16

&&

.MARINE...A SURFACE BOUNDARY STRETCHING SW-NE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEX WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAIN BEFORE
GETTING GETTING DRAWN NORTH LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A STRONG
SYSTEM PASSING OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL PUSH A STRONG FRONT BACK OVER AREA COASTAL WATERS. EACH
OF THE PRECEDING PIECES OF ENERGY WITH TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
OVER AREA COASTAL WATERS. THE FIRST WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT...THE NEXT SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. GUIDANCE IS
ADVERTISING SPEEDS RISING TO EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS WITH THESE
SHORTWAVES. SMALL CRAFT LEVELS WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH AND BEHIND
THE FRONT TUESDAY THROUGH MID WEEK. /16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      46  56  48  62  50 /  80  50  20  40  50
PENSACOLA   49  59  51  63  54 /  70  30  20  50  70
DESTIN      51  60  52  63  58 /  60  30  20  60  70
EVERGREEN   45  57  44  59  48 /  90  50  20  40  50
WAYNESBORO  43  56  41  60  43 /  80  40  10  30  30
CAMDEN      44  57  41  58  44 /  90  50  10  40  40
CRESTVIEW   47  59  48  63  51 /  70  40  20  50  70

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMOB 191728 AAC
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE TO AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1130 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.AVIATION...
18Z ISSUANCE...A LULL IN THE RAIN WILL BE SHORT TERM AS THE FIRST OF
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVE OFF. ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR...THEN IFR
CIGS/VISBYS WILL MOVE IN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS A SECOND ROUND OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHES. AM EXPECTING THIS ROUND TO LAST
OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...THEN EASE TO MVFR AND VFR LEVELS
FROM THE WEST.

/16
&&

.UPDATE...AS FIRST SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF...ENHANCE PERIOD OF RAIN IS
SHIFTING EAST OVER MAINLY THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE COUNTIES. AM
EXPECTING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE OVER MAINLY THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE FA...SPREADING EAST THROUGH THE DAY. NEXT ROUND OF ENHANCED
RAIN IS MOVING OVER WESTERN LA AS NEXT PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
MOVES EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER
VALLEY. AM EXPECTING THIS TO AFFECT THE FA LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. NO UPDATES PLANNED FOR FORECAST AT THIS
TIME.

/16


.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$















000
FXUS64 KMOB 191728 AAC
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE TO AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1130 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.AVIATION...
18Z ISSUANCE...A LULL IN THE RAIN WILL BE SHORT TERM AS THE FIRST OF
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVE OFF. ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR...THEN IFR
CIGS/VISBYS WILL MOVE IN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS A SECOND ROUND OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHES. AM EXPECTING THIS ROUND TO LAST
OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...THEN EASE TO MVFR AND VFR LEVELS
FROM THE WEST.

/16
&&

.UPDATE...AS FIRST SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF...ENHANCE PERIOD OF RAIN IS
SHIFTING EAST OVER MAINLY THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE COUNTIES. AM
EXPECTING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE OVER MAINLY THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE FA...SPREADING EAST THROUGH THE DAY. NEXT ROUND OF ENHANCED
RAIN IS MOVING OVER WESTERN LA AS NEXT PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
MOVES EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER
VALLEY. AM EXPECTING THIS TO AFFECT THE FA LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. NO UPDATES PLANNED FOR FORECAST AT THIS
TIME.

/16


.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$
















000
FXUS64 KMOB 191611 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1015 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...AS FIRST SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF...ENHANCE PERIOD OF RAIN IS
SHIFTING EAST OVER MAINLY THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE COUNTIES. AM
EXPECTING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE OVER MAINLY THE WESTERNHALF
OF THE FA...SPREADING EAST THROUGH THE DAY. NEXT ROUND OF ENHANCED
RAIN IS MOVING OVER WESTERN LA AS NEXT PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
MOVES EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER
VALLEY. AM EXPECTING THIS TO AFFECT THE FA LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. NO UPDATES PLANNED FOR FORECAST AT THIS
TIME.

/16


.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$












000
FXUS64 KMOB 191611 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1015 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...AS FIRST SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF...ENHANCE PERIOD OF RAIN IS
SHIFTING EAST OVER MAINLY THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE COUNTIES. AM
EXPECTING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE OVER MAINLY THE WESTERNHALF
OF THE FA...SPREADING EAST THROUGH THE DAY. NEXT ROUND OF ENHANCED
RAIN IS MOVING OVER WESTERN LA AS NEXT PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
MOVES EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER
VALLEY. AM EXPECTING THIS TO AFFECT THE FA LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. NO UPDATES PLANNED FOR FORECAST AT THIS
TIME.

/16


.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$













000
FXUS64 KMOB 191611 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1015 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...AS FIRST SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF...ENHANCE PERIOD OF RAIN IS
SHIFTING EAST OVER MAINLY THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE COUNTIES. AM
EXPECTING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE OVER MAINLY THE WESTERNHALF
OF THE FA...SPREADING EAST THROUGH THE DAY. NEXT ROUND OF ENHANCED
RAIN IS MOVING OVER WESTERN LA AS NEXT PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
MOVES EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER
VALLEY. AM EXPECTING THIS TO AFFECT THE FA LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. NO UPDATES PLANNED FOR FORECAST AT THIS
TIME.

/16


.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$













000
FXUS64 KMOB 191611 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1015 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...AS FIRST SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF...ENHANCE PERIOD OF RAIN IS
SHIFTING EAST OVER MAINLY THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE COUNTIES. AM
EXPECTING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE OVER MAINLY THE WESTERNHALF
OF THE FA...SPREADING EAST THROUGH THE DAY. NEXT ROUND OF ENHANCED
RAIN IS MOVING OVER WESTERN LA AS NEXT PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
MOVES EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER
VALLEY. AM EXPECTING THIS TO AFFECT THE FA LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. NO UPDATES PLANNED FOR FORECAST AT THIS
TIME.

/16


.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$












000
FXUS64 KMOB 191355 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
755 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014


.MARINE...UPDATED CURRENT MARINE FORECAST MOSTLY TO REFLECT CURRENT
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MARINE AREA. EXPECT A MODERATE NORTHEAST TO
EASTERLY FLOW TO CONTINUE OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. WITH
CHOPPY CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER MOST BAYS AND SOUNDS AND SEAS BUILDING
TO 3 TO 4 FEET WELL OFFSHORE WILL MENTION SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION FOR MOST MARINE ZONES FOR TODAY. 32/EE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 554 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

UPDATE...A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE OCCURRING OVER COASTAL MS
THIS MORNING MOVING EAST. AS A RESULT HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR TODAY. WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS STILL NOT LIKELY. ANY CONVECTION THAT
DOES OCCUR WILL BE ELEVATED. 32/EE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 445 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT...A DAMPENING SHORT WAVE MOVING QUICKLY EASTWARD OVER
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF
STATES LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT COMBINED WITH A BROAD SFC LOW
REFLECTING OVER THE WESTERN GULF WILL CONTINUE TO GIVE WAY TO
WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
LATER THIS MORNING CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT AND EARLY SAT MORNING.
AS THE SFC LOW CONTINUES TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY INCREASED
ISENTROPIC/LAYER LIFT OVER THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS OF MS ...LA AND
AL WILL SHIFT EAST AND NORTH LEADING TO BETTER COVERAGE OF OF PRECIP
OVER COASTAL AREAS OF THE CWFA EARLY TODAY THEN SHIFTING FURTHER
INLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. AS MENTIONED EARLIER WITH THE LOW
CENTER REMAINING MOSTLY OFFSHORE THROUGH TONIGHT THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA STILL LOOKS TO REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE KEEPING DAYTIME TEMPS
BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES ALONG WITH LITTLE TO NO THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
FOR BOTH INLAND AND OFFSHORE THROUGH EARLY SAT MORNING. WITH THE
COOLER MORE STABLE AIR CONTINUING NEAR THE SFC ANY CONVECTION THAT
DOES OCCUR WILL BE ELEVATED OCCURRING MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE IMMEDIATE
COAST. IN THE UPPER LEVELS BETTER DIVERGENCE ALOFT IS STILL NOTED
OCCURRING MOSTLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING POSSIBLY
LEADING TO SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL TOTALS OVER SOME INTERIOR SECTIONS
OF THE CWFA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. AS MENTIONED ABOVE
WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE COOLER MET GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY
UNDERCUTTING THESE VALUES BY 1 TO 3 DEGREES FOR ALL AREAS. THE LOWEST
TEMPS WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWFA TODAY STRETCHING
SOUTH TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST. TODAYS HIGHS WILL BE LOWER TO MIDDLE
50S FOR MOST AREAS WITH THE UPPER 50S ONLY OCCURRING OVER COASTAL
AREAS OF THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE GENERALLY EAST OF THE PENSACOLA FL.
TONIGHTS LOWS WILL IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS
AND THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. /32

FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE TROF OVER THE
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST STATES EXITS TO THE EAST EARLY SATURDAY FOLLOWED
BY AN UPPER TROF WHICH ADVANCES INTO THE PLAINS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
AND AMPLIFIES TO A LONGWAVE TROF IN THE PROCESS.  A SURFACE LOW
LOCATED SOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
WEAKENS WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE INTERIOR SOUTHEAST STATES UPPER
TROF BUT LEAVES AN INVERTED TROF OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF.  A
SHORTWAVE EJECTED FROM THE STRENGTHENING PLAINS UPPER TROF MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND LEADS TO A POORLY DEFINED SURFACE
LOW REFORMING OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF WHICH MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.  WILL HAVE CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS
SATURDAY MORNING WHICH TAPER TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROF.  AS CAN BE THE CASE WITH
THESE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PATTERNS...HAVE HAD TO MAKE A FAIRLY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WITH MUCH HIGHER POPS FOR SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS AN EJECTED SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A POORLY DEFINED SURFACE LOW PASSING SOUTH
OF THE AREA.  WILL HAVE POPS INCREASING TO LIKELY OVER COASTAL
PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY TAPERING TO SLIGHT CHANCE WELL INLAND
THEN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS OVER THE EASTERN PORTION
WITH CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS OVER THE REMAINING AREA.  THE AREA
REMAINS STABLE AND HAVE KEPT THE MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF THE
FORECAST.  HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S INLAND TO
NEAR 60 CLOSER TO THE COAST WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES.  LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 40S INLAND TO LOWER 50S CLOSER TO THE COAST...THEN
SLIGHTLY WARMER SUNDAY NIGHT. /29

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...THE PLAINS LONGWAVE TROF
CONTINUES TO DEEPEN THROUGH TUESDAY THEN TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT
WHILE ADVANCING INTO THE EASTERN STATES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  A
SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MOVES OFF TO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH TUESDAY...LIKELY OCCLUDING WITH THE UPPER
TROF IN THE PROCESS AND BRINGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE GULF COAST
STATES WHICH MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY EVENING.  A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW MAY DEVELOP ON THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER TEXAS ON MONDAY AND ADVANCE EASTWARD ACROSS
THE GULF COAST STATES WITH THE ADVANCING FRONT.  THE BEST DEEP LAYER
LIFT LOOKS TO OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT ON TUESDAY OVER THE
FORECAST AREA...AND IN A REGION OF 0-1 KM HELICITY VALUES OF 100-150
M2/S2 AND 0-3 KM MUCAPES NEAR 500 J/KG.  THIS IS SOMEWHAT MORE
FAVORABLE FOR STRONG STORM DEVELOPMENT BUT FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN
WORDING OF SOME STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE FOR TUESDAY IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.  WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ON MONDAY
INCREASING TO GOOD CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING.  CHANCE POPS FOLLOW FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT THEN DRY CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. /29

MARINE...A WEAKENING SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF TODAY AND SAT LEADING TO A LIGHT TO
MODERATE NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH
SAT...THEN BUILDING SLIGHTLY SAT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL THEN DIMINISH LATE SUN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE SURFACE
LOW TO THE SOUTH CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST. A BETTER SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS MON NIGHT INTO TUE AHEAD OF ANOTHER APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE MARINE AREA ON TUE LEADING TO A
STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW LATE TUE THROUGH WED. WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED SHOWERS WILL OCCUR TODAY AND TONIGHT TAPERING OFF SOMEWHAT
ON SAT THEN REDEVELOPING SUN AND SUN NIGHT. A BETTER CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO OCCUR AHEAD AND ALONG THE SECOND COLD FRONT
TUE AND TUE NIGHT. 32/EE

AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE...MVFR TO IFR CIGS MOSTLY IN LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
THROUGH 20.12Z. BETTER RAIN CHANCES CAN BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT TAPERING OFF SLOWLY FROM WEST TO EAST ON SAT. WINDS WILL
BE MOSTLY NORTHEAST AT 7 TO 10 KNOTS THROUGH 19.12Z. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      53  48  60  51  62 /  80  80  50  20  60
PENSACOLA   57  50  60  52  63 /  60  70  50  20  70
DESTIN      59  52  61  54  63 /  60  50  50  20  70
EVERGREEN   54  44  58  47  59 /  70  80  50  20  30
WAYNESBORO  51  42  58  46  58 /  90  80  40  10  20
CAMDEN      55  43  58  45  56 /  80  90  50  10  20
CRESTVIEW   58  46  61  49  62 /  60  60  50  20  70

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KMOB 191355 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
755 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014


.MARINE...UPDATED CURRENT MARINE FORECAST MOSTLY TO REFLECT CURRENT
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MARINE AREA. EXPECT A MODERATE NORTHEAST TO
EASTERLY FLOW TO CONTINUE OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. WITH
CHOPPY CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER MOST BAYS AND SOUNDS AND SEAS BUILDING
TO 3 TO 4 FEET WELL OFFSHORE WILL MENTION SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION FOR MOST MARINE ZONES FOR TODAY. 32/EE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 554 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

UPDATE...A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE OCCURRING OVER COASTAL MS
THIS MORNING MOVING EAST. AS A RESULT HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR TODAY. WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS STILL NOT LIKELY. ANY CONVECTION THAT
DOES OCCUR WILL BE ELEVATED. 32/EE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 445 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT...A DAMPENING SHORT WAVE MOVING QUICKLY EASTWARD OVER
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF
STATES LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT COMBINED WITH A BROAD SFC LOW
REFLECTING OVER THE WESTERN GULF WILL CONTINUE TO GIVE WAY TO
WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
LATER THIS MORNING CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT AND EARLY SAT MORNING.
AS THE SFC LOW CONTINUES TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY INCREASED
ISENTROPIC/LAYER LIFT OVER THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS OF MS ...LA AND
AL WILL SHIFT EAST AND NORTH LEADING TO BETTER COVERAGE OF OF PRECIP
OVER COASTAL AREAS OF THE CWFA EARLY TODAY THEN SHIFTING FURTHER
INLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. AS MENTIONED EARLIER WITH THE LOW
CENTER REMAINING MOSTLY OFFSHORE THROUGH TONIGHT THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA STILL LOOKS TO REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE KEEPING DAYTIME TEMPS
BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES ALONG WITH LITTLE TO NO THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
FOR BOTH INLAND AND OFFSHORE THROUGH EARLY SAT MORNING. WITH THE
COOLER MORE STABLE AIR CONTINUING NEAR THE SFC ANY CONVECTION THAT
DOES OCCUR WILL BE ELEVATED OCCURRING MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE IMMEDIATE
COAST. IN THE UPPER LEVELS BETTER DIVERGENCE ALOFT IS STILL NOTED
OCCURRING MOSTLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING POSSIBLY
LEADING TO SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL TOTALS OVER SOME INTERIOR SECTIONS
OF THE CWFA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. AS MENTIONED ABOVE
WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE COOLER MET GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY
UNDERCUTTING THESE VALUES BY 1 TO 3 DEGREES FOR ALL AREAS. THE LOWEST
TEMPS WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWFA TODAY STRETCHING
SOUTH TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST. TODAYS HIGHS WILL BE LOWER TO MIDDLE
50S FOR MOST AREAS WITH THE UPPER 50S ONLY OCCURRING OVER COASTAL
AREAS OF THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE GENERALLY EAST OF THE PENSACOLA FL.
TONIGHTS LOWS WILL IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS
AND THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. /32

FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE TROF OVER THE
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST STATES EXITS TO THE EAST EARLY SATURDAY FOLLOWED
BY AN UPPER TROF WHICH ADVANCES INTO THE PLAINS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
AND AMPLIFIES TO A LONGWAVE TROF IN THE PROCESS.  A SURFACE LOW
LOCATED SOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
WEAKENS WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE INTERIOR SOUTHEAST STATES UPPER
TROF BUT LEAVES AN INVERTED TROF OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF.  A
SHORTWAVE EJECTED FROM THE STRENGTHENING PLAINS UPPER TROF MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND LEADS TO A POORLY DEFINED SURFACE
LOW REFORMING OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF WHICH MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.  WILL HAVE CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS
SATURDAY MORNING WHICH TAPER TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROF.  AS CAN BE THE CASE WITH
THESE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PATTERNS...HAVE HAD TO MAKE A FAIRLY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WITH MUCH HIGHER POPS FOR SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS AN EJECTED SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A POORLY DEFINED SURFACE LOW PASSING SOUTH
OF THE AREA.  WILL HAVE POPS INCREASING TO LIKELY OVER COASTAL
PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY TAPERING TO SLIGHT CHANCE WELL INLAND
THEN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS OVER THE EASTERN PORTION
WITH CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS OVER THE REMAINING AREA.  THE AREA
REMAINS STABLE AND HAVE KEPT THE MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF THE
FORECAST.  HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S INLAND TO
NEAR 60 CLOSER TO THE COAST WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES.  LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 40S INLAND TO LOWER 50S CLOSER TO THE COAST...THEN
SLIGHTLY WARMER SUNDAY NIGHT. /29

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...THE PLAINS LONGWAVE TROF
CONTINUES TO DEEPEN THROUGH TUESDAY THEN TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT
WHILE ADVANCING INTO THE EASTERN STATES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  A
SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MOVES OFF TO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH TUESDAY...LIKELY OCCLUDING WITH THE UPPER
TROF IN THE PROCESS AND BRINGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE GULF COAST
STATES WHICH MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY EVENING.  A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW MAY DEVELOP ON THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER TEXAS ON MONDAY AND ADVANCE EASTWARD ACROSS
THE GULF COAST STATES WITH THE ADVANCING FRONT.  THE BEST DEEP LAYER
LIFT LOOKS TO OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT ON TUESDAY OVER THE
FORECAST AREA...AND IN A REGION OF 0-1 KM HELICITY VALUES OF 100-150
M2/S2 AND 0-3 KM MUCAPES NEAR 500 J/KG.  THIS IS SOMEWHAT MORE
FAVORABLE FOR STRONG STORM DEVELOPMENT BUT FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN
WORDING OF SOME STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE FOR TUESDAY IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.  WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ON MONDAY
INCREASING TO GOOD CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING.  CHANCE POPS FOLLOW FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT THEN DRY CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. /29

MARINE...A WEAKENING SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF TODAY AND SAT LEADING TO A LIGHT TO
MODERATE NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH
SAT...THEN BUILDING SLIGHTLY SAT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL THEN DIMINISH LATE SUN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE SURFACE
LOW TO THE SOUTH CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST. A BETTER SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS MON NIGHT INTO TUE AHEAD OF ANOTHER APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE MARINE AREA ON TUE LEADING TO A
STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW LATE TUE THROUGH WED. WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED SHOWERS WILL OCCUR TODAY AND TONIGHT TAPERING OFF SOMEWHAT
ON SAT THEN REDEVELOPING SUN AND SUN NIGHT. A BETTER CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO OCCUR AHEAD AND ALONG THE SECOND COLD FRONT
TUE AND TUE NIGHT. 32/EE

AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE...MVFR TO IFR CIGS MOSTLY IN LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
THROUGH 20.12Z. BETTER RAIN CHANCES CAN BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT TAPERING OFF SLOWLY FROM WEST TO EAST ON SAT. WINDS WILL
BE MOSTLY NORTHEAST AT 7 TO 10 KNOTS THROUGH 19.12Z. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      53  48  60  51  62 /  80  80  50  20  60
PENSACOLA   57  50  60  52  63 /  60  70  50  20  70
DESTIN      59  52  61  54  63 /  60  50  50  20  70
EVERGREEN   54  44  58  47  59 /  70  80  50  20  30
WAYNESBORO  51  42  58  46  58 /  90  80  40  10  20
CAMDEN      55  43  58  45  56 /  80  90  50  10  20
CRESTVIEW   58  46  61  49  62 /  60  60  50  20  70

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMOB 191154 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
554 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE OCCURRING OVER COASTAL MS
THIS MORNING MOVING EAST. AS A RESULT HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR TODAY. WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS STILL NOT LIKELY. ANY CONVECTION THAT
DOES OCCUR WILL BE ELEVATED. 32/EE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 445 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT...A DAMPENING SHORT WAVE MOVING QUICKLY EASTWARD OVER
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF
STATES LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT COMBINED WITH A BROAD SFC LOW
REFLECTING OVER THE WESTERN GULF WILL CONTINUE TO GIVE WAY TO
WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
LATER THIS MORNING CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT AND EARLY SAT MORNING.
AS THE SFC LOW CONTINUES TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY INCREASED
ISENTROPIC/LAYER LIFT OVER THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS OF MS ...LA AND
AL WILL SHIFT EAST AND NORTH LEADING TO BETTER COVERAGE OF OF PRECIP
OVER COASTAL AREAS OF THE CWFA EARLY TODAY THEN SHIFTING FURTHER
INLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. AS MENTIONED EARLIER WITH THE LOW
CENTER REMAINING MOSTLY OFFSHORE THROUGH TONIGHT THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA STILL LOOKS TO REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE KEEPING DAYTIME TEMPS
BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES ALONG WITH LITTLE TO NO THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
FOR BOTH INLAND AND OFFSHORE THROUGH EARLY SAT MORNING. WITH THE
COOLER MORE STABLE AIR CONTINUING NEAR THE SFC ANY CONVECTION THAT
DOES OCCUR WILL BE ELEVATED OCCURRING MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE IMMEDIATE
COAST. IN THE UPPER LEVELS BETTER DIVERGENCE ALOFT IS STILL NOTED
OCCURRING MOSTLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING POSSIBLY
LEADING TO SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL TOTALS OVER SOME INTERIOR SECTIONS
OF THE CWFA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. AS MENTIONED ABOVE
WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE COOLER MET GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY
UNDERCUTTING THESE VALUES BY 1 TO 3 DEGREES FOR ALL AREAS. THE LOWEST
TEMPS WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWFA TODAY STRETCHING
SOUTH TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST. TODAYS HIGHS WILL BE LOWER TO MIDDLE
50S FOR MOST AREAS WITH THE UPPER 50S ONLY OCCURRING OVER COASTAL
AREAS OF THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE GENERALLY EAST OF THE PENSACOLA FL.
TONIGHTS LOWS WILL IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS
AND THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. /32

FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE TROF OVER THE
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST STATES EXITS TO THE EAST EARLY SATURDAY FOLLOWED
BY AN UPPER TROF WHICH ADVANCES INTO THE PLAINS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
AND AMPLIFIES TO A LONGWAVE TROF IN THE PROCESS.  A SURFACE LOW
LOCATED SOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
WEAKENS WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE INTERIOR SOUTHEAST STATES UPPER
TROF BUT LEAVES AN INVERTED TROF OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF.  A
SHORTWAVE EJECTED FROM THE STRENGTHENING PLAINS UPPER TROF MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND LEADS TO A POORLY DEFINED SURFACE
LOW REFORMING OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF WHICH MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.  WILL HAVE CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS
SATURDAY MORNING WHICH TAPER TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROF.  AS CAN BE THE CASE WITH
THESE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PATTERNS...HAVE HAD TO MAKE A FAIRLY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WITH MUCH HIGHER POPS FOR SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS AN EJECTED SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A POORLY DEFINED SURFACE LOW PASSING SOUTH
OF THE AREA.  WILL HAVE POPS INCREASING TO LIKELY OVER COASTAL
PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY TAPERING TO SLIGHT CHANCE WELL INLAND
THEN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS OVER THE EASTERN PORTION
WITH CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS OVER THE REMAINING AREA.  THE AREA
REMAINS STABLE AND HAVE KEPT THE MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF THE
FORECAST.  HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S INLAND TO
NEAR 60 CLOSER TO THE COAST WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES.  LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 40S INLAND TO LOWER 50S CLOSER TO THE COAST...THEN
SLIGHTLY WARMER SUNDAY NIGHT. /29

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...THE PLAINS LONGWAVE TROF
CONTINUES TO DEEPEN THROUGH TUESDAY THEN TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT
WHILE ADVANCING INTO THE EASTERN STATES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  A
SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MOVES OFF TO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH TUESDAY...LIKELY OCCLUDING WITH THE UPPER
TROF IN THE PROCESS AND BRINGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE GULF COAST
STATES WHICH MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY EVENING.  A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW MAY DEVELOP ON THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER TEXAS ON MONDAY AND ADVANCE EASTWARD ACROSS
THE GULF COAST STATES WITH THE ADVANCING FRONT.  THE BEST DEEP LAYER
LIFT LOOKS TO OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT ON TUESDAY OVER THE
FORECAST AREA...AND IN A REGION OF 0-1 KM HELICITY VALUES OF 100-150
M2/S2 AND 0-3 KM MUCAPES NEAR 500 J/KG.  THIS IS SOMEWHAT MORE
FAVORABLE FOR STRONG STORM DEVELOPMENT BUT FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN
WORDING OF SOME STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE FOR TUESDAY IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.  WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ON MONDAY
INCREASING TO GOOD CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING.  CHANCE POPS FOLLOW FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT THEN DRY CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. /29

MARINE...A WEAKENING SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF TODAY AND SAT LEADING TO A LIGHT TO
MODERATE NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH
SAT...THEN BUILDING SLIGHTLY SAT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL THEN DIMINISH LATE SUN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE SURFACE
LOW TO THE SOUTH CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST. A BETTER SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS MON NIGHT INTO TUE AHEAD OF ANOTHER APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE MARINE AREA ON TUE LEADING TO A
STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW LATE TUE THROUGH WED. WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED SHOWERS WILL OCCUR TODAY AND TONIGHT TAPERING OFF SOMEWHAT
ON SAT THEN REDEVELOPING SUN AND SUN NIGHT. A BETTER CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO OCCUR AHEAD AND ALONG THE SECOND COLD FRONT
TUE AND TUE NIGHT. 32/EE

AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE...MVFR TO IFR CIGS MOSTLY IN LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
THROUGH 20.12Z. BETTER RAIN CHANCES CAN BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT TAPERING OFF SLOWLY FROM WEST TO EAST ON SAT. WINDS WILL
BE MOSTLY NORTHEAST AT 7 TO 10 KNOTS THROUGH 19.12Z. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      53  48  60  51  62 /  80  80  50  20  60
PENSACOLA   57  50  60  52  63 /  60  70  50  20  70
DESTIN      59  52  61  54  63 /  60  50  50  20  70
EVERGREEN   54  44  58  47  59 /  70  80  50  20  30
WAYNESBORO  51  42  58  46  58 /  90  80  40  10  20
CAMDEN      55  43  58  45  56 /  80  90  50  10  20
CRESTVIEW   58  46  61  49  62 /  60  60  50  20  70

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KMOB 191154 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
554 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE OCCURRING OVER COASTAL MS
THIS MORNING MOVING EAST. AS A RESULT HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR TODAY. WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS STILL NOT LIKELY. ANY CONVECTION THAT
DOES OCCUR WILL BE ELEVATED. 32/EE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 445 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT...A DAMPENING SHORT WAVE MOVING QUICKLY EASTWARD OVER
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF
STATES LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT COMBINED WITH A BROAD SFC LOW
REFLECTING OVER THE WESTERN GULF WILL CONTINUE TO GIVE WAY TO
WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
LATER THIS MORNING CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT AND EARLY SAT MORNING.
AS THE SFC LOW CONTINUES TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY INCREASED
ISENTROPIC/LAYER LIFT OVER THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS OF MS ...LA AND
AL WILL SHIFT EAST AND NORTH LEADING TO BETTER COVERAGE OF OF PRECIP
OVER COASTAL AREAS OF THE CWFA EARLY TODAY THEN SHIFTING FURTHER
INLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. AS MENTIONED EARLIER WITH THE LOW
CENTER REMAINING MOSTLY OFFSHORE THROUGH TONIGHT THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA STILL LOOKS TO REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE KEEPING DAYTIME TEMPS
BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES ALONG WITH LITTLE TO NO THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
FOR BOTH INLAND AND OFFSHORE THROUGH EARLY SAT MORNING. WITH THE
COOLER MORE STABLE AIR CONTINUING NEAR THE SFC ANY CONVECTION THAT
DOES OCCUR WILL BE ELEVATED OCCURRING MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE IMMEDIATE
COAST. IN THE UPPER LEVELS BETTER DIVERGENCE ALOFT IS STILL NOTED
OCCURRING MOSTLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING POSSIBLY
LEADING TO SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL TOTALS OVER SOME INTERIOR SECTIONS
OF THE CWFA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. AS MENTIONED ABOVE
WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE COOLER MET GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY
UNDERCUTTING THESE VALUES BY 1 TO 3 DEGREES FOR ALL AREAS. THE LOWEST
TEMPS WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWFA TODAY STRETCHING
SOUTH TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST. TODAYS HIGHS WILL BE LOWER TO MIDDLE
50S FOR MOST AREAS WITH THE UPPER 50S ONLY OCCURRING OVER COASTAL
AREAS OF THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE GENERALLY EAST OF THE PENSACOLA FL.
TONIGHTS LOWS WILL IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS
AND THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. /32

FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE TROF OVER THE
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST STATES EXITS TO THE EAST EARLY SATURDAY FOLLOWED
BY AN UPPER TROF WHICH ADVANCES INTO THE PLAINS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
AND AMPLIFIES TO A LONGWAVE TROF IN THE PROCESS.  A SURFACE LOW
LOCATED SOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
WEAKENS WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE INTERIOR SOUTHEAST STATES UPPER
TROF BUT LEAVES AN INVERTED TROF OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF.  A
SHORTWAVE EJECTED FROM THE STRENGTHENING PLAINS UPPER TROF MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND LEADS TO A POORLY DEFINED SURFACE
LOW REFORMING OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF WHICH MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.  WILL HAVE CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS
SATURDAY MORNING WHICH TAPER TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROF.  AS CAN BE THE CASE WITH
THESE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PATTERNS...HAVE HAD TO MAKE A FAIRLY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WITH MUCH HIGHER POPS FOR SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS AN EJECTED SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A POORLY DEFINED SURFACE LOW PASSING SOUTH
OF THE AREA.  WILL HAVE POPS INCREASING TO LIKELY OVER COASTAL
PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY TAPERING TO SLIGHT CHANCE WELL INLAND
THEN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS OVER THE EASTERN PORTION
WITH CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS OVER THE REMAINING AREA.  THE AREA
REMAINS STABLE AND HAVE KEPT THE MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF THE
FORECAST.  HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S INLAND TO
NEAR 60 CLOSER TO THE COAST WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES.  LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 40S INLAND TO LOWER 50S CLOSER TO THE COAST...THEN
SLIGHTLY WARMER SUNDAY NIGHT. /29

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...THE PLAINS LONGWAVE TROF
CONTINUES TO DEEPEN THROUGH TUESDAY THEN TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT
WHILE ADVANCING INTO THE EASTERN STATES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  A
SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MOVES OFF TO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH TUESDAY...LIKELY OCCLUDING WITH THE UPPER
TROF IN THE PROCESS AND BRINGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE GULF COAST
STATES WHICH MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY EVENING.  A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW MAY DEVELOP ON THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER TEXAS ON MONDAY AND ADVANCE EASTWARD ACROSS
THE GULF COAST STATES WITH THE ADVANCING FRONT.  THE BEST DEEP LAYER
LIFT LOOKS TO OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT ON TUESDAY OVER THE
FORECAST AREA...AND IN A REGION OF 0-1 KM HELICITY VALUES OF 100-150
M2/S2 AND 0-3 KM MUCAPES NEAR 500 J/KG.  THIS IS SOMEWHAT MORE
FAVORABLE FOR STRONG STORM DEVELOPMENT BUT FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN
WORDING OF SOME STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE FOR TUESDAY IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.  WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ON MONDAY
INCREASING TO GOOD CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING.  CHANCE POPS FOLLOW FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT THEN DRY CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. /29

MARINE...A WEAKENING SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF TODAY AND SAT LEADING TO A LIGHT TO
MODERATE NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH
SAT...THEN BUILDING SLIGHTLY SAT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL THEN DIMINISH LATE SUN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE SURFACE
LOW TO THE SOUTH CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST. A BETTER SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS MON NIGHT INTO TUE AHEAD OF ANOTHER APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE MARINE AREA ON TUE LEADING TO A
STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW LATE TUE THROUGH WED. WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED SHOWERS WILL OCCUR TODAY AND TONIGHT TAPERING OFF SOMEWHAT
ON SAT THEN REDEVELOPING SUN AND SUN NIGHT. A BETTER CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO OCCUR AHEAD AND ALONG THE SECOND COLD FRONT
TUE AND TUE NIGHT. 32/EE

AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE...MVFR TO IFR CIGS MOSTLY IN LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
THROUGH 20.12Z. BETTER RAIN CHANCES CAN BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT TAPERING OFF SLOWLY FROM WEST TO EAST ON SAT. WINDS WILL
BE MOSTLY NORTHEAST AT 7 TO 10 KNOTS THROUGH 19.12Z. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      53  48  60  51  62 /  80  80  50  20  60
PENSACOLA   57  50  60  52  63 /  60  70  50  20  70
DESTIN      59  52  61  54  63 /  60  50  50  20  70
EVERGREEN   54  44  58  47  59 /  70  80  50  20  30
WAYNESBORO  51  42  58  46  58 /  90  80  40  10  20
CAMDEN      55  43  58  45  56 /  80  90  50  10  20
CRESTVIEW   58  46  61  49  62 /  60  60  50  20  70

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMOB 191045
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
445 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT...A DAMPENING SHORT WAVE MOVING QUICKLY EASTWARD OVER
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF
STATES LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT COMBINED WITH A BROAD SFC LOW
REFLECTING OVER THE WESTERN GULF WILL CONTINUE TO GIVE WAY TO
WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
LATER THIS MORNING CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT AND EARLY SAT MORNING.
AS THE SFC LOW CONTINUES TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY INCREASED
ISENTROPIC/LAYER LIFT OVER THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS OF MS ...LA AND
AL WILL SHIFT EAST AND NORTH LEADING TO BETTER COVERAGE OF OF PRECIP
OVER COASTAL AREAS OF THE CWFA EARLY TODAY THEN SHIFTING FURTHER
INLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. AS MENTIONED EARLIER WITH THE LOW
CENTER REMAINING MOSTLY OFFSHORE THROUGH TONIGHT THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA STILL LOOKS TO REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE KEEPING DAYTIME TEMPS
BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES ALONG WITH LITTLE TO NO THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
FOR BOTH INLAND AND OFFSHORE THROUGH EARLY SAT MORNING. WITH THE
COOLER MORE STABLE AIR CONTINUING NEAR THE SFC ANY CONVECTION THAT
DOES OCCUR WILL BE ELEVATED OCCURRING MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE IMMEDIATE
COAST. IN THE UPPER LEVELS BETTER DIVERGENCE ALOFT IS STILL NOTED
OCCURRING MOSTLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING POSSIBLY
LEADING TO SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL TOTALS OVER SOME INTERIOR SECTIONS
OF THE CWFA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. AS MENTIONED ABOVE
WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE COOLER MET GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY
UNDERCUTTING THESE VALUES BY 1 TO 3 DEGREES FOR ALL AREAS. THE LOWEST
TEMPS WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWFA TODAY STRETCHING
SOUTH TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST. TODAYS HIGHS WILL BE LOWER TO MIDDLE
50S FOR MOST AREAS WITH THE UPPER 50S ONLY OCCURRING OVER COASTAL
AREAS OF THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE GENERALLY EAST OF THE PENSACOLA FL.
TONIGHTS LOWS WILL IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS
AND THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. /32

FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE TROF OVER THE
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST STATES EXITS TO THE EAST EARLY SATURDAY FOLLOWED
BY AN UPPER TROF WHICH ADVANCES INTO THE PLAINS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
AND AMPLIFIES TO A LONGWAVE TROF IN THE PROCESS.  A SURFACE LOW
LOCATED SOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
WEAKENS WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE INTERIOR SOUTHEAST STATES UPPER
TROF BUT LEAVES AN INVERTED TROF OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF.  A
SHORTWAVE EJECTED FROM THE STRENGTHENING PLAINS UPPER TROF MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND LEADS TO A POORLY DEFINED SURFACE
LOW REFORMING OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF WHICH MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.  WILL HAVE CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS
SATURDAY MORNING WHICH TAPER TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROF.  AS CAN BE THE CASE WITH
THESE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PATTERNS...HAVE HAD TO MAKE A FAIRLY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WITH MUCH HIGHER POPS FOR SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS AN EJECTED SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A POORLY DEFINED SURFACE LOW PASSING SOUTH
OF THE AREA.  WILL HAVE POPS INCREASING TO LIKELY OVER COASTAL
PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY TAPERING TO SLIGHT CHANCE WELL INLAND
THEN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS OVER THE EASTERN PORTION
WITH CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS OVER THE REMAINING AREA.  THE AREA
REMAINS STABLE AND HAVE KEPT THE MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF THE
FORECAST.  HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S INLAND TO
NEAR 60 CLOSER TO THE COAST WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES.  LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 40S INLAND TO LOWER 50S CLOSER TO THE COAST...THEN
SLIGHTLY WARMER SUNDAY NIGHT. /29

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...THE PLAINS LONGWAVE TROF
CONTINUES TO DEEPEN THROUGH TUESDAY THEN TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT
WHILE ADVANCING INTO THE EASTERN STATES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  A
SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MOVES OFF TO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH TUESDAY...LIKELY OCCLUDING WITH THE UPPER
TROF IN THE PROCESS AND BRINGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE GULF COAST
STATES WHICH MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY EVENING.  A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW MAY DEVELOP ON THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER TEXAS ON MONDAY AND ADVANCE EASTWARD ACROSS
THE GULF COAST STATES WITH THE ADVANCING FRONT.  THE BEST DEEP LAYER
LIFT LOOKS TO OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT ON TUESDAY OVER THE
FORECAST AREA...AND IN A REGION OF 0-1 KM HELICITY VALUES OF 100-150
M2/S2 AND 0-3 KM MUCAPES NEAR 500 J/KG.  THIS IS SOMEWHAT MORE
FAVORABLE FOR STRONG STORM DEVELOPMENT BUT FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN
WORDING OF SOME STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE FOR TUESDAY IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.  WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ON MONDAY
INCREASING TO GOOD CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING.  CHANCE POPS FOLLOW FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT THEN DRY CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. /29

&&

.MARINE...A WEAKENING SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF TODAY AND SAT LEADING TO A LIGHT TO
MODERATE NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH
SAT...THEN BUILDING SLIGHTLY SAT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL THEN DIMINISH LATE SUN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE SURFACE
LOW TO THE SOUTH CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST. A BETTER SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS MON NIGHT INTO TUE AHEAD OF ANOTHER APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE MARINE AREA ON TUE LEADING TO A
STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW LATE TUE THROUGH WED. WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED SHOWERS WILL OCCUR TODAY AND TONIGHT TAPERING OFF SOMEWHAT
ON SAT THEN REDEVELOPING SUN AND SUN NIGHT. A BETTER CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO OCCUR AHEAD AND ALONG THE SECOND COLD FRONT
TUE AND TUE NIGHT. 32/EE

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE...MVFR TO IFR CIGS MOSTLY IN LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
THROUGH 20.12Z. BETTER RAIN CHANCES CAN BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT TAPERING OFF SLOWLY FROM WEST TO EAST ON SAT. WINDS WILL
BE MOSTLY NORTHEAST AT 7 TO 10 KNOTS THROUGH 19.12Z. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      53  48  60  51  62 /  80  80  50  20  60
PENSACOLA   57  50  60  52  63 /  60  70  50  20  70
DESTIN      59  52  61  54  63 /  60  50  50  20  70
EVERGREEN   54  44  58  47  59 /  70  80  50  20  30
WAYNESBORO  51  42  58  46  58 /  90  80  40  10  20
CAMDEN      55  43  58  45  56 /  80  90  50  10  20
CRESTVIEW   58  46  61  49  62 /  60  60  50  20  70

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMOB 191045
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
445 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT...A DAMPENING SHORT WAVE MOVING QUICKLY EASTWARD OVER
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF
STATES LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT COMBINED WITH A BROAD SFC LOW
REFLECTING OVER THE WESTERN GULF WILL CONTINUE TO GIVE WAY TO
WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
LATER THIS MORNING CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT AND EARLY SAT MORNING.
AS THE SFC LOW CONTINUES TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY INCREASED
ISENTROPIC/LAYER LIFT OVER THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS OF MS ...LA AND
AL WILL SHIFT EAST AND NORTH LEADING TO BETTER COVERAGE OF OF PRECIP
OVER COASTAL AREAS OF THE CWFA EARLY TODAY THEN SHIFTING FURTHER
INLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. AS MENTIONED EARLIER WITH THE LOW
CENTER REMAINING MOSTLY OFFSHORE THROUGH TONIGHT THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA STILL LOOKS TO REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE KEEPING DAYTIME TEMPS
BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES ALONG WITH LITTLE TO NO THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
FOR BOTH INLAND AND OFFSHORE THROUGH EARLY SAT MORNING. WITH THE
COOLER MORE STABLE AIR CONTINUING NEAR THE SFC ANY CONVECTION THAT
DOES OCCUR WILL BE ELEVATED OCCURRING MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE IMMEDIATE
COAST. IN THE UPPER LEVELS BETTER DIVERGENCE ALOFT IS STILL NOTED
OCCURRING MOSTLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING POSSIBLY
LEADING TO SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL TOTALS OVER SOME INTERIOR SECTIONS
OF THE CWFA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. AS MENTIONED ABOVE
WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE COOLER MET GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY
UNDERCUTTING THESE VALUES BY 1 TO 3 DEGREES FOR ALL AREAS. THE LOWEST
TEMPS WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWFA TODAY STRETCHING
SOUTH TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST. TODAYS HIGHS WILL BE LOWER TO MIDDLE
50S FOR MOST AREAS WITH THE UPPER 50S ONLY OCCURRING OVER COASTAL
AREAS OF THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE GENERALLY EAST OF THE PENSACOLA FL.
TONIGHTS LOWS WILL IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS
AND THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. /32

FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE TROF OVER THE
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST STATES EXITS TO THE EAST EARLY SATURDAY FOLLOWED
BY AN UPPER TROF WHICH ADVANCES INTO THE PLAINS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
AND AMPLIFIES TO A LONGWAVE TROF IN THE PROCESS.  A SURFACE LOW
LOCATED SOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
WEAKENS WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE INTERIOR SOUTHEAST STATES UPPER
TROF BUT LEAVES AN INVERTED TROF OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF.  A
SHORTWAVE EJECTED FROM THE STRENGTHENING PLAINS UPPER TROF MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND LEADS TO A POORLY DEFINED SURFACE
LOW REFORMING OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF WHICH MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.  WILL HAVE CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS
SATURDAY MORNING WHICH TAPER TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROF.  AS CAN BE THE CASE WITH
THESE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PATTERNS...HAVE HAD TO MAKE A FAIRLY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WITH MUCH HIGHER POPS FOR SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS AN EJECTED SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A POORLY DEFINED SURFACE LOW PASSING SOUTH
OF THE AREA.  WILL HAVE POPS INCREASING TO LIKELY OVER COASTAL
PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY TAPERING TO SLIGHT CHANCE WELL INLAND
THEN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS OVER THE EASTERN PORTION
WITH CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS OVER THE REMAINING AREA.  THE AREA
REMAINS STABLE AND HAVE KEPT THE MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF THE
FORECAST.  HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S INLAND TO
NEAR 60 CLOSER TO THE COAST WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES.  LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 40S INLAND TO LOWER 50S CLOSER TO THE COAST...THEN
SLIGHTLY WARMER SUNDAY NIGHT. /29

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...THE PLAINS LONGWAVE TROF
CONTINUES TO DEEPEN THROUGH TUESDAY THEN TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT
WHILE ADVANCING INTO THE EASTERN STATES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  A
SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MOVES OFF TO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH TUESDAY...LIKELY OCCLUDING WITH THE UPPER
TROF IN THE PROCESS AND BRINGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE GULF COAST
STATES WHICH MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY EVENING.  A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW MAY DEVELOP ON THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER TEXAS ON MONDAY AND ADVANCE EASTWARD ACROSS
THE GULF COAST STATES WITH THE ADVANCING FRONT.  THE BEST DEEP LAYER
LIFT LOOKS TO OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT ON TUESDAY OVER THE
FORECAST AREA...AND IN A REGION OF 0-1 KM HELICITY VALUES OF 100-150
M2/S2 AND 0-3 KM MUCAPES NEAR 500 J/KG.  THIS IS SOMEWHAT MORE
FAVORABLE FOR STRONG STORM DEVELOPMENT BUT FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN
WORDING OF SOME STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE FOR TUESDAY IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.  WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ON MONDAY
INCREASING TO GOOD CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING.  CHANCE POPS FOLLOW FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT THEN DRY CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. /29

&&

.MARINE...A WEAKENING SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF TODAY AND SAT LEADING TO A LIGHT TO
MODERATE NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH
SAT...THEN BUILDING SLIGHTLY SAT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL THEN DIMINISH LATE SUN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE SURFACE
LOW TO THE SOUTH CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST. A BETTER SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS MON NIGHT INTO TUE AHEAD OF ANOTHER APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE MARINE AREA ON TUE LEADING TO A
STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW LATE TUE THROUGH WED. WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED SHOWERS WILL OCCUR TODAY AND TONIGHT TAPERING OFF SOMEWHAT
ON SAT THEN REDEVELOPING SUN AND SUN NIGHT. A BETTER CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO OCCUR AHEAD AND ALONG THE SECOND COLD FRONT
TUE AND TUE NIGHT. 32/EE

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE...MVFR TO IFR CIGS MOSTLY IN LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
THROUGH 20.12Z. BETTER RAIN CHANCES CAN BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT TAPERING OFF SLOWLY FROM WEST TO EAST ON SAT. WINDS WILL
BE MOSTLY NORTHEAST AT 7 TO 10 KNOTS THROUGH 19.12Z. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      53  48  60  51  62 /  80  80  50  20  60
PENSACOLA   57  50  60  52  63 /  60  70  50  20  70
DESTIN      59  52  61  54  63 /  60  50  50  20  70
EVERGREEN   54  44  58  47  59 /  70  80  50  20  30
WAYNESBORO  51  42  58  46  58 /  90  80  40  10  20
CAMDEN      55  43  58  45  56 /  80  90  50  10  20
CRESTVIEW   58  46  61  49  62 /  60  60  50  20  70

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMOB 190412
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1012 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...THE AREA OF LIGHT RAINFALL THAT WAS OVER SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON HAS NOW NEARLY DISSIPATED...
ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE A FEW SPRINKLES LEFT OVER IN SOME AREAS OF
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA THIS EVENING.
GENERALLY...NO PCPN IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...BUT TOWARD DAYBREAK AND
ESPECIALLY INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER
THE GULF TO OUR SOUTH AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSES TO THE
NORTH. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING ISTENTROPIC LIFT AND WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH THE SFC LOW
BEING WELL TO THE SOUTH...NOT EXPECTING ANY THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM AS MENTIONED BY PREVIOUS SHIFT.
OTHERWISE...FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY
SKIES...LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS AND TEMPS FALLING INTO THE LOW 40S
NORTHERN COUNTIES TO MID TO UPPER 40S SOUTHERN COUNTIES (AROUND 50
IMMEDIATE COAST). NO CHANGES/AMENDMENTS REQUIRED. 12/DS

&&

.AVIATION...
19.00Z TAF CYCLE...CLOUD COVER HAS LOWERED AS EXPECTED THIS
EVENING...WITH CEILINGS AROUND 5000 KFT ATTM. DO NOT REALLY EXPECT
THAT BASES WILL LOWER MUCH MORE...AND IF THEY DO ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN AT VFR CRITERIA. AREA OF RAIN TO THE WEST OF THE TAF SITES
EARLY THIS EVENING HAS GENERALLY DISSIPATED...ALTHOUGH A LIGHT
SPRINKLE IS POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND
SOUTHWEST ALABAMA THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST TONIGHT. RAIN IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS COASTAL AREAS BY
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY. PERIODS OF MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN MAY RESULT IN TEMPORARY MVFR VSBYS/CIGS THROUGH THE
MORNING. 12/DS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON]...A SMALL AREA OF
RAIN HAS HELD TOGETHER FAIRLY WELL THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL MS. THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST AND WILL AFFECT
PORTIONS OF INLAND SE MS/SW AL THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THIS ACTIVITY DIMINISHING THIS
EVENING...BUT BASED ON RADAR TRENDS HAVE INCREASED THE RAIN CHANCES
OVER THE FAR WESTERN ZONES FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND WILL
KEEP A 30% CHANCE FOR THIS EVENING AS WELL. AS THIS AREA OF RAIN
DIMINISHES THIS EVENING...WE WILL LIKELY SEE A BREAK IN THE PRECIP.
HOWEVER...IT WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE
NOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST STATES/NORTHERN MEXICO QUICKLY MOVES EAST.
THIS SHORTWAVE IS NOW FORECAST TO DEAMPLIFY AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED
IN THE FAST WSW FLOW ALOFT. DUE TO THE WEAKER NATURE OF THE UPPER
SYSTEM...THE WELL ADVERTISED SFC LOW/TROUGH THAT DEVELOPS OFF THE TX
COAST TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING IS NOW FORECAST TO BE MUCH WEAKER
AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE NW GULF. NEVERTHELESS...INCREASING UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A 125-135 KT UPPER LEVEL JET TO OUR
NORTH COMBINED WITH INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE 300-310K LAYER
WILL RESULT IN RAIN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY
MORNING...LIKELY OVER SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH THE RAIN SPREADING NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE DAY.
REMOVED ALL MENTION OF THUNDER GIVEN THAT WE NOW STAY IN THE COOL
SECTOR AND WE NO LONGER ANTICIPATE ANY STRONG THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
THE COMBINATION OF THE CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL RESULT IN A CHILLY DAY
WITH HIGHS NOT EXPECTED TO CLIMB OUT OF THE LOW TO MID 50S IN THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA...WITH UPPER 50S FURTHER EAST. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS SW AL/SE MS MAY NOT CLIMB OUT OF
THE UPPER 40S. THIS FORECAST LEANED TOWARD THE COLDER MET GUIDANCE
WHICH IS COOLER THAN THE GFS BASED MAV GUIDANCE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
BE IN THE 40S. 34/JFB

[FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY]...THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
APPROACHING THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY FROM THE WEST FRIDAY
EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND DEAMPLIFY FURTHER ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS. AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE FORMING OVER THE
NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO FRIDAY EVENING WILL ALSO MOVE EAST...
REACHING THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF WATERS SATURDAY MORNING. THE LOW
WILL THEN STALL AND WEAKEN INTO AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM. THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN WEDGE
BETWEEN THE APPROACHING SURFACE LOW AND A LARGE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...MAINTAINING A LIGHT AND CHILLY
NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW.

EXPECT LIKELY TO DEFINITE RAIN CHANCES TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PRECIP SATURDAY MORNING.
THE PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF WEST OF THE TOMBIGBEE RIVER IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT FEW REMAINING VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES
WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH
REMAINS OVER THE GULF.

LOWS BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHTS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID
40S INLAND AREAS...WITH UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COASTAL SECTIONS. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM 56 TO 61
DEGREES. /22

LONG TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY]...THE PLAINS UPPER TROF
AMPLIFIES INTO A LONGWAVE TROF THROUGH TUESDAY THEN TAKES ON A
NEGATIVE TILT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WHILE ADVANCING INTO THE
EASTERN STATES. A SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM PASSES
WELL TO THE NORTH AND BRINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA MAINLY
TUESDAY NIGHT. WHILE THE SHEAR IS NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE
CURRENTLY...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR 0-3 KM MUCAPES AROUND 500
J/KG OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND GIVEN THE STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM
MENTIONED SOME STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE MAINLY ON TUESDAY IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. WILL HAVE MAINLY SMALL POPS ON SUNDAY
INCREASING TO CHANCE POPS BY TUESDAY THEN DRY CONDITIONS FOLLOW FOR
WEDNESDAY. /29

AVIATION...
18.18Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF CYCLE
WHILE CLOUD COVER WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION FROM HIGH LEVEL BASES
THIS AFTERNOON TO LOWER CIGS TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST WITH CIGS OF AROUND 5000 FT EXPECTED TONIGHT. RAIN IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS COASTAL AREAS BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY. PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN MAY RESULT
IN TEMPORARY MVFR VSBYS/CIGS THROUGH THE MORNING. 34/JFB

MARINE...A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY...BUT WILL NOW LIKELY STAY SOUTH OF
THE MARINE AREA. THIS RESULTS IN NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS INCREASING
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WITH A SLIGHT BUILD IN SEAS. THE LOW IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN WITH A SURFACE TROUGH LINGERING SOUTH OF THE
MARINE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS RESULTS IN WINDS BECOMING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THE FRONT IS CURRENTLY PROJECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE MARINE AREA ON
TUESDAY...WITH A STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. 34/JFB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      46  53  46  60  48 /  20  80  80  30  20
PENSACOLA   47  55  50  61  50 /  05  70  70  40  20
DESTIN      50  59  49  60  50 /  05  50  50  50  20
EVERGREEN   41  56  44  59  44 /  10  60  80  40  20
WAYNESBORO  43  52  40  58  42 /  30  80  80  20  05
CAMDEN      40  55  41  57  41 /  10  60  90  30  20
CRESTVIEW   43  58  44  62  45 /  05  50  60  50  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMOB 190412
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1012 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...THE AREA OF LIGHT RAINFALL THAT WAS OVER SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON HAS NOW NEARLY DISSIPATED...
ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE A FEW SPRINKLES LEFT OVER IN SOME AREAS OF
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA THIS EVENING.
GENERALLY...NO PCPN IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...BUT TOWARD DAYBREAK AND
ESPECIALLY INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER
THE GULF TO OUR SOUTH AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSES TO THE
NORTH. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING ISTENTROPIC LIFT AND WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH THE SFC LOW
BEING WELL TO THE SOUTH...NOT EXPECTING ANY THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM AS MENTIONED BY PREVIOUS SHIFT.
OTHERWISE...FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY
SKIES...LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS AND TEMPS FALLING INTO THE LOW 40S
NORTHERN COUNTIES TO MID TO UPPER 40S SOUTHERN COUNTIES (AROUND 50
IMMEDIATE COAST). NO CHANGES/AMENDMENTS REQUIRED. 12/DS

&&

.AVIATION...
19.00Z TAF CYCLE...CLOUD COVER HAS LOWERED AS EXPECTED THIS
EVENING...WITH CEILINGS AROUND 5000 KFT ATTM. DO NOT REALLY EXPECT
THAT BASES WILL LOWER MUCH MORE...AND IF THEY DO ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN AT VFR CRITERIA. AREA OF RAIN TO THE WEST OF THE TAF SITES
EARLY THIS EVENING HAS GENERALLY DISSIPATED...ALTHOUGH A LIGHT
SPRINKLE IS POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND
SOUTHWEST ALABAMA THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST TONIGHT. RAIN IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS COASTAL AREAS BY
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY. PERIODS OF MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN MAY RESULT IN TEMPORARY MVFR VSBYS/CIGS THROUGH THE
MORNING. 12/DS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON]...A SMALL AREA OF
RAIN HAS HELD TOGETHER FAIRLY WELL THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL MS. THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST AND WILL AFFECT
PORTIONS OF INLAND SE MS/SW AL THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THIS ACTIVITY DIMINISHING THIS
EVENING...BUT BASED ON RADAR TRENDS HAVE INCREASED THE RAIN CHANCES
OVER THE FAR WESTERN ZONES FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND WILL
KEEP A 30% CHANCE FOR THIS EVENING AS WELL. AS THIS AREA OF RAIN
DIMINISHES THIS EVENING...WE WILL LIKELY SEE A BREAK IN THE PRECIP.
HOWEVER...IT WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE
NOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST STATES/NORTHERN MEXICO QUICKLY MOVES EAST.
THIS SHORTWAVE IS NOW FORECAST TO DEAMPLIFY AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED
IN THE FAST WSW FLOW ALOFT. DUE TO THE WEAKER NATURE OF THE UPPER
SYSTEM...THE WELL ADVERTISED SFC LOW/TROUGH THAT DEVELOPS OFF THE TX
COAST TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING IS NOW FORECAST TO BE MUCH WEAKER
AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE NW GULF. NEVERTHELESS...INCREASING UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A 125-135 KT UPPER LEVEL JET TO OUR
NORTH COMBINED WITH INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE 300-310K LAYER
WILL RESULT IN RAIN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY
MORNING...LIKELY OVER SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH THE RAIN SPREADING NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE DAY.
REMOVED ALL MENTION OF THUNDER GIVEN THAT WE NOW STAY IN THE COOL
SECTOR AND WE NO LONGER ANTICIPATE ANY STRONG THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
THE COMBINATION OF THE CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL RESULT IN A CHILLY DAY
WITH HIGHS NOT EXPECTED TO CLIMB OUT OF THE LOW TO MID 50S IN THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA...WITH UPPER 50S FURTHER EAST. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS SW AL/SE MS MAY NOT CLIMB OUT OF
THE UPPER 40S. THIS FORECAST LEANED TOWARD THE COLDER MET GUIDANCE
WHICH IS COOLER THAN THE GFS BASED MAV GUIDANCE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
BE IN THE 40S. 34/JFB

[FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY]...THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
APPROACHING THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY FROM THE WEST FRIDAY
EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND DEAMPLIFY FURTHER ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS. AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE FORMING OVER THE
NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO FRIDAY EVENING WILL ALSO MOVE EAST...
REACHING THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF WATERS SATURDAY MORNING. THE LOW
WILL THEN STALL AND WEAKEN INTO AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM. THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN WEDGE
BETWEEN THE APPROACHING SURFACE LOW AND A LARGE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...MAINTAINING A LIGHT AND CHILLY
NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW.

EXPECT LIKELY TO DEFINITE RAIN CHANCES TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PRECIP SATURDAY MORNING.
THE PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF WEST OF THE TOMBIGBEE RIVER IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT FEW REMAINING VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES
WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH
REMAINS OVER THE GULF.

LOWS BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHTS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID
40S INLAND AREAS...WITH UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COASTAL SECTIONS. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM 56 TO 61
DEGREES. /22

LONG TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY]...THE PLAINS UPPER TROF
AMPLIFIES INTO A LONGWAVE TROF THROUGH TUESDAY THEN TAKES ON A
NEGATIVE TILT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WHILE ADVANCING INTO THE
EASTERN STATES. A SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM PASSES
WELL TO THE NORTH AND BRINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA MAINLY
TUESDAY NIGHT. WHILE THE SHEAR IS NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE
CURRENTLY...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR 0-3 KM MUCAPES AROUND 500
J/KG OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND GIVEN THE STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM
MENTIONED SOME STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE MAINLY ON TUESDAY IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. WILL HAVE MAINLY SMALL POPS ON SUNDAY
INCREASING TO CHANCE POPS BY TUESDAY THEN DRY CONDITIONS FOLLOW FOR
WEDNESDAY. /29

AVIATION...
18.18Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF CYCLE
WHILE CLOUD COVER WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION FROM HIGH LEVEL BASES
THIS AFTERNOON TO LOWER CIGS TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST WITH CIGS OF AROUND 5000 FT EXPECTED TONIGHT. RAIN IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS COASTAL AREAS BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY. PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN MAY RESULT
IN TEMPORARY MVFR VSBYS/CIGS THROUGH THE MORNING. 34/JFB

MARINE...A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY...BUT WILL NOW LIKELY STAY SOUTH OF
THE MARINE AREA. THIS RESULTS IN NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS INCREASING
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WITH A SLIGHT BUILD IN SEAS. THE LOW IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN WITH A SURFACE TROUGH LINGERING SOUTH OF THE
MARINE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS RESULTS IN WINDS BECOMING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THE FRONT IS CURRENTLY PROJECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE MARINE AREA ON
TUESDAY...WITH A STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. 34/JFB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      46  53  46  60  48 /  20  80  80  30  20
PENSACOLA   47  55  50  61  50 /  05  70  70  40  20
DESTIN      50  59  49  60  50 /  05  50  50  50  20
EVERGREEN   41  56  44  59  44 /  10  60  80  40  20
WAYNESBORO  43  52  40  58  42 /  30  80  80  20  05
CAMDEN      40  55  41  57  41 /  10  60  90  30  20
CRESTVIEW   43  58  44  62  45 /  05  50  60  50  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KMOB 190412
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1012 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...THE AREA OF LIGHT RAINFALL THAT WAS OVER SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON HAS NOW NEARLY DISSIPATED...
ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE A FEW SPRINKLES LEFT OVER IN SOME AREAS OF
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA THIS EVENING.
GENERALLY...NO PCPN IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...BUT TOWARD DAYBREAK AND
ESPECIALLY INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER
THE GULF TO OUR SOUTH AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSES TO THE
NORTH. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING ISTENTROPIC LIFT AND WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH THE SFC LOW
BEING WELL TO THE SOUTH...NOT EXPECTING ANY THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM AS MENTIONED BY PREVIOUS SHIFT.
OTHERWISE...FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY
SKIES...LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS AND TEMPS FALLING INTO THE LOW 40S
NORTHERN COUNTIES TO MID TO UPPER 40S SOUTHERN COUNTIES (AROUND 50
IMMEDIATE COAST). NO CHANGES/AMENDMENTS REQUIRED. 12/DS

&&

.AVIATION...
19.00Z TAF CYCLE...CLOUD COVER HAS LOWERED AS EXPECTED THIS
EVENING...WITH CEILINGS AROUND 5000 KFT ATTM. DO NOT REALLY EXPECT
THAT BASES WILL LOWER MUCH MORE...AND IF THEY DO ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN AT VFR CRITERIA. AREA OF RAIN TO THE WEST OF THE TAF SITES
EARLY THIS EVENING HAS GENERALLY DISSIPATED...ALTHOUGH A LIGHT
SPRINKLE IS POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND
SOUTHWEST ALABAMA THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST TONIGHT. RAIN IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS COASTAL AREAS BY
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY. PERIODS OF MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN MAY RESULT IN TEMPORARY MVFR VSBYS/CIGS THROUGH THE
MORNING. 12/DS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON]...A SMALL AREA OF
RAIN HAS HELD TOGETHER FAIRLY WELL THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL MS. THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST AND WILL AFFECT
PORTIONS OF INLAND SE MS/SW AL THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THIS ACTIVITY DIMINISHING THIS
EVENING...BUT BASED ON RADAR TRENDS HAVE INCREASED THE RAIN CHANCES
OVER THE FAR WESTERN ZONES FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND WILL
KEEP A 30% CHANCE FOR THIS EVENING AS WELL. AS THIS AREA OF RAIN
DIMINISHES THIS EVENING...WE WILL LIKELY SEE A BREAK IN THE PRECIP.
HOWEVER...IT WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE
NOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST STATES/NORTHERN MEXICO QUICKLY MOVES EAST.
THIS SHORTWAVE IS NOW FORECAST TO DEAMPLIFY AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED
IN THE FAST WSW FLOW ALOFT. DUE TO THE WEAKER NATURE OF THE UPPER
SYSTEM...THE WELL ADVERTISED SFC LOW/TROUGH THAT DEVELOPS OFF THE TX
COAST TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING IS NOW FORECAST TO BE MUCH WEAKER
AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE NW GULF. NEVERTHELESS...INCREASING UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A 125-135 KT UPPER LEVEL JET TO OUR
NORTH COMBINED WITH INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE 300-310K LAYER
WILL RESULT IN RAIN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY
MORNING...LIKELY OVER SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH THE RAIN SPREADING NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE DAY.
REMOVED ALL MENTION OF THUNDER GIVEN THAT WE NOW STAY IN THE COOL
SECTOR AND WE NO LONGER ANTICIPATE ANY STRONG THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
THE COMBINATION OF THE CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL RESULT IN A CHILLY DAY
WITH HIGHS NOT EXPECTED TO CLIMB OUT OF THE LOW TO MID 50S IN THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA...WITH UPPER 50S FURTHER EAST. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS SW AL/SE MS MAY NOT CLIMB OUT OF
THE UPPER 40S. THIS FORECAST LEANED TOWARD THE COLDER MET GUIDANCE
WHICH IS COOLER THAN THE GFS BASED MAV GUIDANCE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
BE IN THE 40S. 34/JFB

[FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY]...THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
APPROACHING THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY FROM THE WEST FRIDAY
EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND DEAMPLIFY FURTHER ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS. AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE FORMING OVER THE
NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO FRIDAY EVENING WILL ALSO MOVE EAST...
REACHING THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF WATERS SATURDAY MORNING. THE LOW
WILL THEN STALL AND WEAKEN INTO AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM. THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN WEDGE
BETWEEN THE APPROACHING SURFACE LOW AND A LARGE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...MAINTAINING A LIGHT AND CHILLY
NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW.

EXPECT LIKELY TO DEFINITE RAIN CHANCES TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PRECIP SATURDAY MORNING.
THE PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF WEST OF THE TOMBIGBEE RIVER IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT FEW REMAINING VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES
WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH
REMAINS OVER THE GULF.

LOWS BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHTS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID
40S INLAND AREAS...WITH UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COASTAL SECTIONS. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM 56 TO 61
DEGREES. /22

LONG TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY]...THE PLAINS UPPER TROF
AMPLIFIES INTO A LONGWAVE TROF THROUGH TUESDAY THEN TAKES ON A
NEGATIVE TILT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WHILE ADVANCING INTO THE
EASTERN STATES. A SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM PASSES
WELL TO THE NORTH AND BRINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA MAINLY
TUESDAY NIGHT. WHILE THE SHEAR IS NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE
CURRENTLY...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR 0-3 KM MUCAPES AROUND 500
J/KG OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND GIVEN THE STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM
MENTIONED SOME STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE MAINLY ON TUESDAY IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. WILL HAVE MAINLY SMALL POPS ON SUNDAY
INCREASING TO CHANCE POPS BY TUESDAY THEN DRY CONDITIONS FOLLOW FOR
WEDNESDAY. /29

AVIATION...
18.18Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF CYCLE
WHILE CLOUD COVER WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION FROM HIGH LEVEL BASES
THIS AFTERNOON TO LOWER CIGS TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST WITH CIGS OF AROUND 5000 FT EXPECTED TONIGHT. RAIN IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS COASTAL AREAS BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY. PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN MAY RESULT
IN TEMPORARY MVFR VSBYS/CIGS THROUGH THE MORNING. 34/JFB

MARINE...A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY...BUT WILL NOW LIKELY STAY SOUTH OF
THE MARINE AREA. THIS RESULTS IN NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS INCREASING
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WITH A SLIGHT BUILD IN SEAS. THE LOW IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN WITH A SURFACE TROUGH LINGERING SOUTH OF THE
MARINE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS RESULTS IN WINDS BECOMING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THE FRONT IS CURRENTLY PROJECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE MARINE AREA ON
TUESDAY...WITH A STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. 34/JFB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      46  53  46  60  48 /  20  80  80  30  20
PENSACOLA   47  55  50  61  50 /  05  70  70  40  20
DESTIN      50  59  49  60  50 /  05  50  50  50  20
EVERGREEN   41  56  44  59  44 /  10  60  80  40  20
WAYNESBORO  43  52  40  58  42 /  30  80  80  20  05
CAMDEN      40  55  41  57  41 /  10  60  90  30  20
CRESTVIEW   43  58  44  62  45 /  05  50  60  50  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMOB 190412
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1012 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...THE AREA OF LIGHT RAINFALL THAT WAS OVER SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON HAS NOW NEARLY DISSIPATED...
ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE A FEW SPRINKLES LEFT OVER IN SOME AREAS OF
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA THIS EVENING.
GENERALLY...NO PCPN IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...BUT TOWARD DAYBREAK AND
ESPECIALLY INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER
THE GULF TO OUR SOUTH AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSES TO THE
NORTH. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING ISTENTROPIC LIFT AND WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH THE SFC LOW
BEING WELL TO THE SOUTH...NOT EXPECTING ANY THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM AS MENTIONED BY PREVIOUS SHIFT.
OTHERWISE...FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY
SKIES...LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS AND TEMPS FALLING INTO THE LOW 40S
NORTHERN COUNTIES TO MID TO UPPER 40S SOUTHERN COUNTIES (AROUND 50
IMMEDIATE COAST). NO CHANGES/AMENDMENTS REQUIRED. 12/DS

&&

.AVIATION...
19.00Z TAF CYCLE...CLOUD COVER HAS LOWERED AS EXPECTED THIS
EVENING...WITH CEILINGS AROUND 5000 KFT ATTM. DO NOT REALLY EXPECT
THAT BASES WILL LOWER MUCH MORE...AND IF THEY DO ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN AT VFR CRITERIA. AREA OF RAIN TO THE WEST OF THE TAF SITES
EARLY THIS EVENING HAS GENERALLY DISSIPATED...ALTHOUGH A LIGHT
SPRINKLE IS POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND
SOUTHWEST ALABAMA THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST TONIGHT. RAIN IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS COASTAL AREAS BY
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY. PERIODS OF MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN MAY RESULT IN TEMPORARY MVFR VSBYS/CIGS THROUGH THE
MORNING. 12/DS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON]...A SMALL AREA OF
RAIN HAS HELD TOGETHER FAIRLY WELL THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL MS. THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST AND WILL AFFECT
PORTIONS OF INLAND SE MS/SW AL THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THIS ACTIVITY DIMINISHING THIS
EVENING...BUT BASED ON RADAR TRENDS HAVE INCREASED THE RAIN CHANCES
OVER THE FAR WESTERN ZONES FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND WILL
KEEP A 30% CHANCE FOR THIS EVENING AS WELL. AS THIS AREA OF RAIN
DIMINISHES THIS EVENING...WE WILL LIKELY SEE A BREAK IN THE PRECIP.
HOWEVER...IT WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE
NOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST STATES/NORTHERN MEXICO QUICKLY MOVES EAST.
THIS SHORTWAVE IS NOW FORECAST TO DEAMPLIFY AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED
IN THE FAST WSW FLOW ALOFT. DUE TO THE WEAKER NATURE OF THE UPPER
SYSTEM...THE WELL ADVERTISED SFC LOW/TROUGH THAT DEVELOPS OFF THE TX
COAST TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING IS NOW FORECAST TO BE MUCH WEAKER
AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE NW GULF. NEVERTHELESS...INCREASING UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A 125-135 KT UPPER LEVEL JET TO OUR
NORTH COMBINED WITH INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE 300-310K LAYER
WILL RESULT IN RAIN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY
MORNING...LIKELY OVER SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH THE RAIN SPREADING NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE DAY.
REMOVED ALL MENTION OF THUNDER GIVEN THAT WE NOW STAY IN THE COOL
SECTOR AND WE NO LONGER ANTICIPATE ANY STRONG THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
THE COMBINATION OF THE CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL RESULT IN A CHILLY DAY
WITH HIGHS NOT EXPECTED TO CLIMB OUT OF THE LOW TO MID 50S IN THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA...WITH UPPER 50S FURTHER EAST. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS SW AL/SE MS MAY NOT CLIMB OUT OF
THE UPPER 40S. THIS FORECAST LEANED TOWARD THE COLDER MET GUIDANCE
WHICH IS COOLER THAN THE GFS BASED MAV GUIDANCE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
BE IN THE 40S. 34/JFB

[FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY]...THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
APPROACHING THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY FROM THE WEST FRIDAY
EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND DEAMPLIFY FURTHER ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS. AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE FORMING OVER THE
NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO FRIDAY EVENING WILL ALSO MOVE EAST...
REACHING THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF WATERS SATURDAY MORNING. THE LOW
WILL THEN STALL AND WEAKEN INTO AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM. THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN WEDGE
BETWEEN THE APPROACHING SURFACE LOW AND A LARGE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...MAINTAINING A LIGHT AND CHILLY
NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW.

EXPECT LIKELY TO DEFINITE RAIN CHANCES TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PRECIP SATURDAY MORNING.
THE PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF WEST OF THE TOMBIGBEE RIVER IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT FEW REMAINING VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES
WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH
REMAINS OVER THE GULF.

LOWS BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHTS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID
40S INLAND AREAS...WITH UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COASTAL SECTIONS. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM 56 TO 61
DEGREES. /22

LONG TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY]...THE PLAINS UPPER TROF
AMPLIFIES INTO A LONGWAVE TROF THROUGH TUESDAY THEN TAKES ON A
NEGATIVE TILT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WHILE ADVANCING INTO THE
EASTERN STATES. A SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM PASSES
WELL TO THE NORTH AND BRINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA MAINLY
TUESDAY NIGHT. WHILE THE SHEAR IS NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE
CURRENTLY...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR 0-3 KM MUCAPES AROUND 500
J/KG OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND GIVEN THE STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM
MENTIONED SOME STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE MAINLY ON TUESDAY IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. WILL HAVE MAINLY SMALL POPS ON SUNDAY
INCREASING TO CHANCE POPS BY TUESDAY THEN DRY CONDITIONS FOLLOW FOR
WEDNESDAY. /29

AVIATION...
18.18Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF CYCLE
WHILE CLOUD COVER WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION FROM HIGH LEVEL BASES
THIS AFTERNOON TO LOWER CIGS TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST WITH CIGS OF AROUND 5000 FT EXPECTED TONIGHT. RAIN IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS COASTAL AREAS BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY. PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN MAY RESULT
IN TEMPORARY MVFR VSBYS/CIGS THROUGH THE MORNING. 34/JFB

MARINE...A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY...BUT WILL NOW LIKELY STAY SOUTH OF
THE MARINE AREA. THIS RESULTS IN NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS INCREASING
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WITH A SLIGHT BUILD IN SEAS. THE LOW IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN WITH A SURFACE TROUGH LINGERING SOUTH OF THE
MARINE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS RESULTS IN WINDS BECOMING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THE FRONT IS CURRENTLY PROJECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE MARINE AREA ON
TUESDAY...WITH A STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. 34/JFB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      46  53  46  60  48 /  20  80  80  30  20
PENSACOLA   47  55  50  61  50 /  05  70  70  40  20
DESTIN      50  59  49  60  50 /  05  50  50  50  20
EVERGREEN   41  56  44  59  44 /  10  60  80  40  20
WAYNESBORO  43  52  40  58  42 /  30  80  80  20  05
CAMDEN      40  55  41  57  41 /  10  60  90  30  20
CRESTVIEW   43  58  44  62  45 /  05  50  60  50  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KMOB 182134
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
334 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON]...A SMALL AREA OF
RAIN HAS HELD TOGETHER FAIRLY WELL THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL MS. THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST AND WILL AFFECT
PORTIONS OF INLAND SE MS/SW AL THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THIS ACTIVITY DIMINISHING THIS
EVENING...BUT BASED ON RADAR TRENDS HAVE INCREASED THE RAIN CHANCES
OVER THE FAR WESTERN ZONES FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND WILL
KEEP A 30% CHANCE FOR THIS EVENING AS WELL. AS THIS AREA OF RAIN
DIMINISHES THIS EVENING...WE WILL LIKELY SEE A BREAK IN THE PRECIP.
HOWEVER...IT WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE
NOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST STATES/NORTHERN MEXICO QUICKLY MOVES EAST.
THIS SHORTWAVE IS NOW FORECAST TO DEAMPLIFY AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED
IN THE FAST WSW FLOW ALOFT. DUE TO THE WEAKER NATURE OF THE UPPER
SYSTEM...THE WELL ADVERTISED SFC LOW/TROUGH THAT DEVELOPS OFF THE TX
COAST TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING IS NOW FORECAST TO BE MUCH WEAKER
AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE NW GULF. NEVERTHELESS...INCREASING UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A 125-135 KT UPPER LEVEL JET TO OUR
NORTH COMBINED WITH INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE 300-310K LAYER
WILL RESULT IN RAIN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY
MORNING...LIKELY OVER SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH THE RAIN SPREADING NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE DAY.
REMOVED ALL MENTION OF THUNDER GIVEN THAT WE NOW STAY IN THE COOL
SECTOR AND WE NO LONGER ANTICIPATE ANY STRONG THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
THE COMBINATION OF THE CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL RESULT IN A CHILLY DAY
WITH HIGHS NOT EXPECTED TO CLIMB OUT OF THE LOW TO MID 50S IN THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA...WITH UPPER 50S FURTHER EAST. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS SW AL/SE MS MAY NOT CLIMB OUT OF
THE UPPER 40S. THIS FORECAST LEANED TOWARD THE COLDER MET GUIDANCE
WHICH IS COOLER THAN THE GFS BASED MAV GUIDANCE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
BE IN THE 40S. 34/JFB

[FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY]...THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
APPROACHING THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY FROM THE WEST FRIDAY
EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND DEAMPLIFY FURTHER ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS. AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE FORMING OVER THE
NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO FRIDAY EVENING WILL ALSO MOVE EAST...
REACHING THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF WATERS SATURDAY MORNING. THE LOW
WILL THEN STALL AND WEAKEN INTO AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM. THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN WEDGE
BETWEEN THE APPROACHING SURFACE LOW AND A LARGE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...MAINTAINING A LIGHT AND CHILLY
NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW.

EXPECT LIKELY TO DEFINITE RAIN CHANCES TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PRECIP SATURDAY MORNING.
THE PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF WEST OF THE TOMBIGBEE RIVER IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT FEW REMAINING VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES
WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH
REMAINS OVER THE GULF.

LOWS BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHTS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID
40S INLAND AREAS...WITH UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COASTAL SECTIONS. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM 56 TO 61
DEGREES. /22

.LONG TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY]...THE PLAINS UPPER TROF
AMPLIFIES INTO A LONGWAVE TROF THROUGH TUESDAY THEN TAKES ON A
NEGATIVE TILT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WHILE ADVANCING INTO THE
EASTERN STATES. A SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM PASSES
WELL TO THE NORTH AND BRINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA MAINLY
TUESDAY NIGHT. WHILE THE SHEAR IS NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE
CURRENTLY...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR 0-3 KM MUCAPES AROUND 500
J/KG OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND GIVEN THE STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM
MENTIONED SOME STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE MAINLY ON TUESDAY IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. WILL HAVE MAINLY SMALL POPS ON SUNDAY
INCREASING TO CHANCE POPS BY TUESDAY THEN DRY CONDITIONS FOLLOW FOR
WEDNESDAY. /29

&&

.AVIATION...
18.18Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF CYCLE
WHILE CLOUD COVER WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION FROM HIGH LEVEL BASES
THIS AFTERNOON TO LOWER CIGS TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST WITH CIGS OF AROUND 5000 FT EXPECTED TONIGHT. RAIN IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS COASTAL AREAS BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY. PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN MAY RESULT
IN TEMPORARY MVFR VSBYS/CIGS THROUGH THE MORNING. 34/JFB

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY...BUT WILL NOW LIKELY STAY SOUTH OF
THE MARINE AREA. THIS RESULTS IN NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS INCREASING
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WITH A SLIGHT BUILD IN SEAS. THE LOW IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN WITH A SURFACE TROUGH LINGERING SOUTH OF THE
MARINE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS RESULTS IN WINDS BECOMING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THE FRONT IS CURRENTLY PROJECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE MARINE AREA ON
TUESDAY...WITH A STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. 34/JFB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      46  53  46  60  48 /  20  80  80  30  20
PENSACOLA   47  55  50  61  50 /  05  70  70  40  20
DESTIN      50  59  49  60  50 /  05  50  50  50  20
EVERGREEN   41  56  44  59  44 /  10  60  80  40  20
WAYNESBORO  43  52  40  58  42 /  30  80  80  20  05
CAMDEN      40  55  41  57  41 /  10  60  90  30  20
CRESTVIEW   43  58  44  62  45 /  05  50  60  50  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KMOB 182134
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
334 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON]...A SMALL AREA OF
RAIN HAS HELD TOGETHER FAIRLY WELL THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL MS. THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST AND WILL AFFECT
PORTIONS OF INLAND SE MS/SW AL THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THIS ACTIVITY DIMINISHING THIS
EVENING...BUT BASED ON RADAR TRENDS HAVE INCREASED THE RAIN CHANCES
OVER THE FAR WESTERN ZONES FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND WILL
KEEP A 30% CHANCE FOR THIS EVENING AS WELL. AS THIS AREA OF RAIN
DIMINISHES THIS EVENING...WE WILL LIKELY SEE A BREAK IN THE PRECIP.
HOWEVER...IT WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE
NOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST STATES/NORTHERN MEXICO QUICKLY MOVES EAST.
THIS SHORTWAVE IS NOW FORECAST TO DEAMPLIFY AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED
IN THE FAST WSW FLOW ALOFT. DUE TO THE WEAKER NATURE OF THE UPPER
SYSTEM...THE WELL ADVERTISED SFC LOW/TROUGH THAT DEVELOPS OFF THE TX
COAST TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING IS NOW FORECAST TO BE MUCH WEAKER
AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE NW GULF. NEVERTHELESS...INCREASING UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A 125-135 KT UPPER LEVEL JET TO OUR
NORTH COMBINED WITH INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE 300-310K LAYER
WILL RESULT IN RAIN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY
MORNING...LIKELY OVER SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH THE RAIN SPREADING NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE DAY.
REMOVED ALL MENTION OF THUNDER GIVEN THAT WE NOW STAY IN THE COOL
SECTOR AND WE NO LONGER ANTICIPATE ANY STRONG THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
THE COMBINATION OF THE CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL RESULT IN A CHILLY DAY
WITH HIGHS NOT EXPECTED TO CLIMB OUT OF THE LOW TO MID 50S IN THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA...WITH UPPER 50S FURTHER EAST. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS SW AL/SE MS MAY NOT CLIMB OUT OF
THE UPPER 40S. THIS FORECAST LEANED TOWARD THE COLDER MET GUIDANCE
WHICH IS COOLER THAN THE GFS BASED MAV GUIDANCE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
BE IN THE 40S. 34/JFB

[FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY]...THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
APPROACHING THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY FROM THE WEST FRIDAY
EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND DEAMPLIFY FURTHER ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS. AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE FORMING OVER THE
NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO FRIDAY EVENING WILL ALSO MOVE EAST...
REACHING THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF WATERS SATURDAY MORNING. THE LOW
WILL THEN STALL AND WEAKEN INTO AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM. THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN WEDGE
BETWEEN THE APPROACHING SURFACE LOW AND A LARGE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...MAINTAINING A LIGHT AND CHILLY
NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW.

EXPECT LIKELY TO DEFINITE RAIN CHANCES TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PRECIP SATURDAY MORNING.
THE PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF WEST OF THE TOMBIGBEE RIVER IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT FEW REMAINING VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES
WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH
REMAINS OVER THE GULF.

LOWS BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHTS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID
40S INLAND AREAS...WITH UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COASTAL SECTIONS. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM 56 TO 61
DEGREES. /22

.LONG TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY]...THE PLAINS UPPER TROF
AMPLIFIES INTO A LONGWAVE TROF THROUGH TUESDAY THEN TAKES ON A
NEGATIVE TILT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WHILE ADVANCING INTO THE
EASTERN STATES. A SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM PASSES
WELL TO THE NORTH AND BRINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA MAINLY
TUESDAY NIGHT. WHILE THE SHEAR IS NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE
CURRENTLY...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR 0-3 KM MUCAPES AROUND 500
J/KG OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND GIVEN THE STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM
MENTIONED SOME STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE MAINLY ON TUESDAY IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. WILL HAVE MAINLY SMALL POPS ON SUNDAY
INCREASING TO CHANCE POPS BY TUESDAY THEN DRY CONDITIONS FOLLOW FOR
WEDNESDAY. /29

&&

.AVIATION...
18.18Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF CYCLE
WHILE CLOUD COVER WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION FROM HIGH LEVEL BASES
THIS AFTERNOON TO LOWER CIGS TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST WITH CIGS OF AROUND 5000 FT EXPECTED TONIGHT. RAIN IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS COASTAL AREAS BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY. PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN MAY RESULT
IN TEMPORARY MVFR VSBYS/CIGS THROUGH THE MORNING. 34/JFB

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY...BUT WILL NOW LIKELY STAY SOUTH OF
THE MARINE AREA. THIS RESULTS IN NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS INCREASING
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WITH A SLIGHT BUILD IN SEAS. THE LOW IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN WITH A SURFACE TROUGH LINGERING SOUTH OF THE
MARINE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS RESULTS IN WINDS BECOMING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THE FRONT IS CURRENTLY PROJECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE MARINE AREA ON
TUESDAY...WITH A STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. 34/JFB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      46  53  46  60  48 /  20  80  80  30  20
PENSACOLA   47  55  50  61  50 /  05  70  70  40  20
DESTIN      50  59  49  60  50 /  05  50  50  50  20
EVERGREEN   41  56  44  59  44 /  10  60  80  40  20
WAYNESBORO  43  52  40  58  42 /  30  80  80  20  05
CAMDEN      40  55  41  57  41 /  10  60  90  30  20
CRESTVIEW   43  58  44  62  45 /  05  50  60  50  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMOB 181740 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1140 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS A BROKEN BAND OF LIGHT RAIN FROM WEST
CENTRAL AL SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTHWEST MS THAT IS GRADUALLY MOVING EAST.
THE SHORTWAVE THAT GENERATED THIS RAIN WILL BE SHEARING OUT WELL TO
THE NORTH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...LIKELY RESULTING IN THE
PRECIP GRADUALLY WEAKENING. HOWEVER...THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE SOME
PATCHY LIGHT RAIN COULD MOVE INTO THE FAR NW FORECAST AREA...SO HAVE
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR FAR
INLAND SE MS/SW AL. OTHERWISE...CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS LOOK ON TRACK.
DID LOWER HIGHS A FEW DEGREES OVER THE FAR NW ZONES BASED ON COOLER
THAN FORECAST OBSERVATIONS THIS MORNING COMBINED WITH THE INCREASING
CLOUD COVER. 34/JFB

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z ISSUANCE.
WHILE CLOUD COVER WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION FROM HIGH LEVEL BASES
THIS AFTERNOON TO LOWER CIGS TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST WITH CIGS OF AROUND 5000 FT EXPECTED TONIGHT. RAIN IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS COASTAL AREAS BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY. PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN MAY RESULT
IN TEMPORARY MVFR VSBYS/CIGS THROUGH THE MORNING. 34/JFB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT...HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TODAY AHEAD OF A
DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES.
MEANWHILE...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
LEADING TO CONTINUED NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
EAST TODAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE TEXAS COAST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO OUR WEST
THROUGH THE DAY...HOWEVER OUR AREA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY WITH
HIGHS IN UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE TEXAS
TONIGHT...THE SFC LOW WILL DEEPEN AND BEGIN TO MOVE EAST. THIS WILL
LEAD TO INCREASING RAIN COVERAGE JUST TO OUR WEST THIS EVENING WHICH
WILL SPREAD EAST INTO WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. DUE
TO THE INCREASING CLOUDS AND RAIN   CHANCES TONIGHT...WENT ABOVE
GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOW
40S WELL INLAND TO UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S ACROSS SOUTH AND
SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. /13

FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER TROF ADVANCES ACROSS
THE PLAINS ON FRIDAY THEN WEAKENS WHILE MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN
STATES ON SATURDAY.  THE MOVEMENT OF A SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM NOW LOOKS TO TAKE AN EVEN MORE SOUTHWARD
TRAJECTORY...MOVING FROM THE NORTHWEST GULF ON FRIDAY TO THE EXTREME
NORTHEAST GULF ON SATURDAY...MOVING ACROSS THE MARINE AREA IN THE
PROCESS.  THIS EXPECTED EVOLUTION DRAMATICALLY LOWERS THE POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG STORMS OVER THE AREA THOUGH WILL STILL KEEP SOME STRONG
STORMS POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
GIVEN THE PATH OF THE SURFACE LOW IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE COAST AND
LET THE DAY SHIFT REASSESS.  WILL HAVE POPS INCREASING TO
CATEGORICAL OVER THE WESTERN FOURTH OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH
LIKELY POPS FOR MOST OF THE REMAINING PORTION...THEN FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS FOR MOST OF THE AREA EXCEPT FOR
LIKELY POPS ROUGHLY OVER THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE.  RAIN
CHANCES TAPER OFF TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  ANOTHER MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER TROF ADVANCES INTO
THE PLAINS MEANWHILE ON SATURDAY AND SETS UP A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH SOME SHORTWAVES EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.  HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL AND RANGE FROM THE MID 50S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TO NEAR
60 OVER THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE.  HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE
CLOSER TO SEASONABLE VALUES AND IN THE UPPER 50S INLAND TO LOWER 60S
CLOSER TO THE COAST.  LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE MID 40S INLAND TO UPPER 40S NEAR THE COAST. /29

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...THE PLAINS UPPER TROF
AMPLIFIES INTO A LONGWAVE TROF THROUGH TUESDAY THEN TAKES ON A
NEGATIVE TILT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WHILE ADVANCING INTO THE
EASTERN STATES.  A SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM PASSES
WELL TO THE NORTH AND BRINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA MAINLY
TUESDAY NIGHT.  WHILE THE SHEAR IS NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE
CURRENTLY...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR 0-3 KM MUCAPES AROUND 500
J/KG OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND GIVEN THE STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM
FEEL IT IS PRUDENT TO ADD MENTION OF SOME STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE
MAINLY ON TUESDAY TO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.  WILL HAVE
MAINLY SMALL POPS ON SUNDAY INCREASING TO CHANCE POPS BY TUESDAY
THEN DRY CONDITIONS FOLLOW FOR WEDNESDAY. /29

MARINE...A LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH. A MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPS ON FRIDAY AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH A
GENERALLY LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. WINDS BECOME ONSHORE AGAIN BY
MONDAY AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS TO THE WEST. /13

AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE...MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
DAY...HOWEVER CIGS WILL REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY. CIGS WILL LOWER
TONIGHT ALONG WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES...ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. /13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      63  48  56  49  61 /  10  20  70  80  30
PENSACOLA   64  49  58  50  62 /  05  10  50  70  50
DESTIN      63  51  59  51  63 /  05  05  40  50  50
EVERGREEN   62  42  55  45  58 /  05  10  70  80  50
WAYNESBORO  59  43  52  42  57 /  20  20  80  80  30
CAMDEN      59  41  55  43  58 /  05  05  70  90  50
CRESTVIEW   65  44  60  46  63 /  05  05  50  60  50

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KMOB 181740 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1140 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS A BROKEN BAND OF LIGHT RAIN FROM WEST
CENTRAL AL SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTHWEST MS THAT IS GRADUALLY MOVING EAST.
THE SHORTWAVE THAT GENERATED THIS RAIN WILL BE SHEARING OUT WELL TO
THE NORTH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...LIKELY RESULTING IN THE
PRECIP GRADUALLY WEAKENING. HOWEVER...THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE SOME
PATCHY LIGHT RAIN COULD MOVE INTO THE FAR NW FORECAST AREA...SO HAVE
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR FAR
INLAND SE MS/SW AL. OTHERWISE...CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS LOOK ON TRACK.
DID LOWER HIGHS A FEW DEGREES OVER THE FAR NW ZONES BASED ON COOLER
THAN FORECAST OBSERVATIONS THIS MORNING COMBINED WITH THE INCREASING
CLOUD COVER. 34/JFB

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z ISSUANCE.
WHILE CLOUD COVER WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION FROM HIGH LEVEL BASES
THIS AFTERNOON TO LOWER CIGS TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST WITH CIGS OF AROUND 5000 FT EXPECTED TONIGHT. RAIN IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS COASTAL AREAS BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY. PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN MAY RESULT
IN TEMPORARY MVFR VSBYS/CIGS THROUGH THE MORNING. 34/JFB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT...HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TODAY AHEAD OF A
DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES.
MEANWHILE...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
LEADING TO CONTINUED NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
EAST TODAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE TEXAS COAST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO OUR WEST
THROUGH THE DAY...HOWEVER OUR AREA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY WITH
HIGHS IN UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE TEXAS
TONIGHT...THE SFC LOW WILL DEEPEN AND BEGIN TO MOVE EAST. THIS WILL
LEAD TO INCREASING RAIN COVERAGE JUST TO OUR WEST THIS EVENING WHICH
WILL SPREAD EAST INTO WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. DUE
TO THE INCREASING CLOUDS AND RAIN   CHANCES TONIGHT...WENT ABOVE
GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOW
40S WELL INLAND TO UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S ACROSS SOUTH AND
SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. /13

FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER TROF ADVANCES ACROSS
THE PLAINS ON FRIDAY THEN WEAKENS WHILE MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN
STATES ON SATURDAY.  THE MOVEMENT OF A SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM NOW LOOKS TO TAKE AN EVEN MORE SOUTHWARD
TRAJECTORY...MOVING FROM THE NORTHWEST GULF ON FRIDAY TO THE EXTREME
NORTHEAST GULF ON SATURDAY...MOVING ACROSS THE MARINE AREA IN THE
PROCESS.  THIS EXPECTED EVOLUTION DRAMATICALLY LOWERS THE POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG STORMS OVER THE AREA THOUGH WILL STILL KEEP SOME STRONG
STORMS POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
GIVEN THE PATH OF THE SURFACE LOW IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE COAST AND
LET THE DAY SHIFT REASSESS.  WILL HAVE POPS INCREASING TO
CATEGORICAL OVER THE WESTERN FOURTH OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH
LIKELY POPS FOR MOST OF THE REMAINING PORTION...THEN FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS FOR MOST OF THE AREA EXCEPT FOR
LIKELY POPS ROUGHLY OVER THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE.  RAIN
CHANCES TAPER OFF TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  ANOTHER MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER TROF ADVANCES INTO
THE PLAINS MEANWHILE ON SATURDAY AND SETS UP A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH SOME SHORTWAVES EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.  HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL AND RANGE FROM THE MID 50S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TO NEAR
60 OVER THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE.  HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE
CLOSER TO SEASONABLE VALUES AND IN THE UPPER 50S INLAND TO LOWER 60S
CLOSER TO THE COAST.  LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE MID 40S INLAND TO UPPER 40S NEAR THE COAST. /29

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...THE PLAINS UPPER TROF
AMPLIFIES INTO A LONGWAVE TROF THROUGH TUESDAY THEN TAKES ON A
NEGATIVE TILT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WHILE ADVANCING INTO THE
EASTERN STATES.  A SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM PASSES
WELL TO THE NORTH AND BRINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA MAINLY
TUESDAY NIGHT.  WHILE THE SHEAR IS NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE
CURRENTLY...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR 0-3 KM MUCAPES AROUND 500
J/KG OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND GIVEN THE STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM
FEEL IT IS PRUDENT TO ADD MENTION OF SOME STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE
MAINLY ON TUESDAY TO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.  WILL HAVE
MAINLY SMALL POPS ON SUNDAY INCREASING TO CHANCE POPS BY TUESDAY
THEN DRY CONDITIONS FOLLOW FOR WEDNESDAY. /29

MARINE...A LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH. A MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPS ON FRIDAY AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH A
GENERALLY LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. WINDS BECOME ONSHORE AGAIN BY
MONDAY AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS TO THE WEST. /13

AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE...MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
DAY...HOWEVER CIGS WILL REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY. CIGS WILL LOWER
TONIGHT ALONG WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES...ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. /13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      63  48  56  49  61 /  10  20  70  80  30
PENSACOLA   64  49  58  50  62 /  05  10  50  70  50
DESTIN      63  51  59  51  63 /  05  05  40  50  50
EVERGREEN   62  42  55  45  58 /  05  10  70  80  50
WAYNESBORO  59  43  52  42  57 /  20  20  80  80  30
CAMDEN      59  41  55  43  58 /  05  05  70  90  50
CRESTVIEW   65  44  60  46  63 /  05  05  50  60  50

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMOB 181006
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
406 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT...HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TODAY AHEAD OF A
DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES.
MEANWHILE...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
LEADING TO CONTINUED NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
EAST TODAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE TEXAS COAST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO OUR WEST
THROUGH THE DAY...HOWEVER OUR AREA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY WITH
HIGHS IN UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE TEXAS
TONIGHT...THE SFC LOW WILL DEEPEN AND BEGIN TO MOVE EAST. THIS WILL
LEAD TO INCREASING RAIN COVERAGE JUST TO OUR WEST THIS EVENING WHICH
WILL SPREAD EAST INTO WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. DUE
TO THE INCREASING CLOUDS AND RAIN   CHANCES TONIGHT...WENT ABOVE
GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOW
40S WELL INLAND TO UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S ACROSS SOUTH AND
SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. /13

FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER TROF ADVANCES ACROSS
THE PLAINS ON FRIDAY THEN WEAKENS WHILE MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN
STATES ON SATURDAY.  THE MOVEMENT OF A SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM NOW LOOKS TO TAKE AN EVEN MORE SOUTHWARD
TRAJECTORY...MOVING FROM THE NORTHWEST GULF ON FRIDAY TO THE EXTREME
NORTHEAST GULF ON SATURDAY...MOVING ACROSS THE MARINE AREA IN THE
PROCESS.  THIS EXPECTED EVOLUTION DRAMATICALLY LOWERS THE POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG STORMS OVER THE AREA THOUGH WILL STILL KEEP SOME STRONG
STORMS POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
GIVEN THE PATH OF THE SURFACE LOW IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE COAST AND
LET THE DAY SHIFT REASSESS.  WILL HAVE POPS INCREASING TO
CATEGORICAL OVER THE WESTERN FOURTH OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH
LIKELY POPS FOR MOST OF THE REMAINING PORTION...THEN FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS FOR MOST OF THE AREA EXCEPT FOR
LIKELY POPS ROUGHLY OVER THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE.  RAIN
CHANCES TAPER OFF TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  ANOTHER MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER TROF ADVANCES INTO
THE PLAINS MEANWHILE ON SATURDAY AND SETS UP A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH SOME SHORTWAVES EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.  HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL AND RANGE FROM THE MID 50S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TO NEAR
60 OVER THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE.  HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE
CLOSER TO SEASONABLE VALUES AND IN THE UPPER 50S INLAND TO LOWER 60S
CLOSER TO THE COAST.  LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE MID 40S INLAND TO UPPER 40S NEAR THE COAST. /29

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...THE PLAINS UPPER TROF
AMPLIFIES INTO A LONGWAVE TROF THROUGH TUESDAY THEN TAKES ON A
NEGATIVE TILT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WHILE ADVANCING INTO THE
EASTERN STATES.  A SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM PASSES
WELL TO THE NORTH AND BRINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA MAINLY
TUESDAY NIGHT.  WHILE THE SHEAR IS NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE
CURRENTLY...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR 0-3 KM MUCAPES AROUND 500
J/KG OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND GIVEN THE STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM
FEEL IT IS PRUDENT TO ADD MENTION OF SOME STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE
MAINLY ON TUESDAY TO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.  WILL HAVE
MAINLY SMALL POPS ON SUNDAY INCREASING TO CHANCE POPS BY TUESDAY
THEN DRY CONDITIONS FOLLOW FOR WEDNESDAY. /29

&&

.MARINE...A LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH. A MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPS ON FRIDAY AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH A
GENERALLY LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. WINDS BECOME ONSHORE AGAIN BY
MONDAY AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS TO THE WEST. /13

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE...MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
DAY...HOWEVER CIGS WILL REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY. CIGS WILL LOWER
TONIGHT ALONG WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES...ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. /13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      63  48  56  49  61 /  10  20  70  80  30
PENSACOLA   64  49  58  50  62 /  05  10  50  70  50
DESTIN      63  51  59  51  63 /  05  05  40  50  50
EVERGREEN   62  42  55  45  58 /  05  10  70  80  50
WAYNESBORO  60  43  52  42  57 /  10  20  80  80  30
CAMDEN      61  41  55  43  58 /  05  05  70  90  50
CRESTVIEW   65  44  60  46  63 /  05  05  50  60  50

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMOB 181006
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
406 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT...HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TODAY AHEAD OF A
DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES.
MEANWHILE...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
LEADING TO CONTINUED NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
EAST TODAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE TEXAS COAST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO OUR WEST
THROUGH THE DAY...HOWEVER OUR AREA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY WITH
HIGHS IN UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE TEXAS
TONIGHT...THE SFC LOW WILL DEEPEN AND BEGIN TO MOVE EAST. THIS WILL
LEAD TO INCREASING RAIN COVERAGE JUST TO OUR WEST THIS EVENING WHICH
WILL SPREAD EAST INTO WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. DUE
TO THE INCREASING CLOUDS AND RAIN   CHANCES TONIGHT...WENT ABOVE
GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOW
40S WELL INLAND TO UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S ACROSS SOUTH AND
SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. /13

FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER TROF ADVANCES ACROSS
THE PLAINS ON FRIDAY THEN WEAKENS WHILE MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN
STATES ON SATURDAY.  THE MOVEMENT OF A SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM NOW LOOKS TO TAKE AN EVEN MORE SOUTHWARD
TRAJECTORY...MOVING FROM THE NORTHWEST GULF ON FRIDAY TO THE EXTREME
NORTHEAST GULF ON SATURDAY...MOVING ACROSS THE MARINE AREA IN THE
PROCESS.  THIS EXPECTED EVOLUTION DRAMATICALLY LOWERS THE POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG STORMS OVER THE AREA THOUGH WILL STILL KEEP SOME STRONG
STORMS POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
GIVEN THE PATH OF THE SURFACE LOW IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE COAST AND
LET THE DAY SHIFT REASSESS.  WILL HAVE POPS INCREASING TO
CATEGORICAL OVER THE WESTERN FOURTH OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH
LIKELY POPS FOR MOST OF THE REMAINING PORTION...THEN FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS FOR MOST OF THE AREA EXCEPT FOR
LIKELY POPS ROUGHLY OVER THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE.  RAIN
CHANCES TAPER OFF TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  ANOTHER MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER TROF ADVANCES INTO
THE PLAINS MEANWHILE ON SATURDAY AND SETS UP A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH SOME SHORTWAVES EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.  HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL AND RANGE FROM THE MID 50S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TO NEAR
60 OVER THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE.  HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE
CLOSER TO SEASONABLE VALUES AND IN THE UPPER 50S INLAND TO LOWER 60S
CLOSER TO THE COAST.  LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE MID 40S INLAND TO UPPER 40S NEAR THE COAST. /29

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...THE PLAINS UPPER TROF
AMPLIFIES INTO A LONGWAVE TROF THROUGH TUESDAY THEN TAKES ON A
NEGATIVE TILT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WHILE ADVANCING INTO THE
EASTERN STATES.  A SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM PASSES
WELL TO THE NORTH AND BRINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA MAINLY
TUESDAY NIGHT.  WHILE THE SHEAR IS NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE
CURRENTLY...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR 0-3 KM MUCAPES AROUND 500
J/KG OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND GIVEN THE STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM
FEEL IT IS PRUDENT TO ADD MENTION OF SOME STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE
MAINLY ON TUESDAY TO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.  WILL HAVE
MAINLY SMALL POPS ON SUNDAY INCREASING TO CHANCE POPS BY TUESDAY
THEN DRY CONDITIONS FOLLOW FOR WEDNESDAY. /29

&&

.MARINE...A LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH. A MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPS ON FRIDAY AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH A
GENERALLY LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. WINDS BECOME ONSHORE AGAIN BY
MONDAY AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS TO THE WEST. /13

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE...MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
DAY...HOWEVER CIGS WILL REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY. CIGS WILL LOWER
TONIGHT ALONG WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES...ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. /13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      63  48  56  49  61 /  10  20  70  80  30
PENSACOLA   64  49  58  50  62 /  05  10  50  70  50
DESTIN      63  51  59  51  63 /  05  05  40  50  50
EVERGREEN   62  42  55  45  58 /  05  10  70  80  50
WAYNESBORO  60  43  52  42  57 /  10  20  80  80  30
CAMDEN      61  41  55  43  58 /  05  05  70  90  50
CRESTVIEW   65  44  60  46  63 /  05  05  50  60  50

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







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