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000
FXUS64 KMOB 281026
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
526 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...TEMPS IN THE LOW TO
MID 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S WILL FUEL MLCAPES OF 2000-3000
J/KG. THE STRONG INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH SOME INCREASED DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL LEAD TO BETTER STORM ORGANIZATION AND A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A
PROFILE FAVORABLE FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS DUE TO EVAPORATIVE
COOLING. WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS AROUND 12KFT WILL ALSO FAVOR HAIL
POTENTIALLY UP TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER ON AN ISOLATED BASIS. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE COAST
DURING THE EVENING HOURS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE OFFSHORE BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. A COOLER AND MUCH DRIER
AIRMASS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE MID 60S WELL INLAND WITH LOW 70S
ALONG THE COAST. 13/JC

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK: HIGH

(TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY)...COOLER AND DRIER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND NO
RAINFALL EXPECTED. HIGHS EACH DAY GENERALLY AT OR JUST BELOW THE
NORMAL OF AROUND 90 TO LOWER 90S...BUT MUCH LOWER THAN NORMAL
DEWPOINTS FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR (MID 50S TO MID 60S) WILL KEEP
THINGS FEELING MORE COMFORTABLE WITH LOWER HUMIDITIES. THE LOWER
DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO RESULT IN TUESDAY NIGHT MIN TEMPS REACHING 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR IN SOME AREAS. LOWS
OVER INTERIOR AROUND 60S DEGREES AND LOW TO MID 60S CLOSER TO THE
COAST BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT (SOME LOCATIONS AROUND 70 AT
THE COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT). 12/DS

&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...MODELS A LITTLE FASTER THIS
MORNING WITH THE RETURN OF CLOUDS AND PCPN DURING THE LONG TERM
PERIOD THAN PREVIOUSLY. MID/UPPER TROF REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES
ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROF OVER OUR AREA...ALLOWING FOR A SLIGHTLY
MORE UNSETTLED AIRMASS THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. LOLVL MOISTURE WILL
ALSO INCREASE AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
REGION AND A ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS. ALL OF THIS WILL RESULT IN THE
POSSIBILITY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM...WITH A DIURNAL
PATTERN OF THE BETTER CHANCES IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. MAX
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THEN IN
THE LOWER 90S OVER THE WEEKEND. LOWS EACH NIGHT RANGING FROM THE
MID/UPPER 60S INLAND TO AROUND 70 AND LOWER 70S COASTAL. 12/DS

&&

.AVIATION (28.12Z ISSUANCE)...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL EARLY IN
THE PERIOD WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND MOVING SOUTH TOWARD THE COAST DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. 13/JC

&&

.MARINE...A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND MOVES ACROSS THE MARINE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT..BUT
REMAINING JUST SHY OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. WILL HEADLINE
WITH SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION. NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE
SOUTH TOWARD THE COAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
13/JC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      94  70  90  64  92 /  50  40  05  05  05
PENSACOLA   92  73  92  69  92 /  50  40  10  05  05
DESTIN      89  75  91  72  92 /  50  40  10  05  05
EVERGREEN   94  65  89  60  90 /  50  20  05  05  05
WAYNESBORO  94  64  89  60  90 /  50  10  05  05  10
CAMDEN      94  64  89  60  90 /  50  10  05  10  05
CRESTVIEW   95  68  92  66  92 /  50  40  10  05  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA
     ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMOB 280423 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1123 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.AVIATION...[28.00 UTC TAF CYCLE]...THE REASONING GIVEN IN PREVIOUS
AVIATION AFD SECTION BELOW HOLDS FOR THE 6 UTC CYCLE...EXCEPT SLOWED
SOUTHERLY MOTION OF APPROACHING THUNDERSTORMS BY APPROXIMATELY 1-2
HOURS GIVEN LATEST MESOSCALE GUIDANCE AND ADDITIONAL FINE-TUNING
ADJUSTMENTS FROM PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  SINCE THE UPCOMING TAF CYCLE NOW
INCLUDES 00-06 UTC...SHOWED CONDITIONS TRENDING FROM MVFR (PRIMARILY
DUE TO CIGS) TO VFR DURING THE 2-4 UTC TIME FRAME ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-10 CORRIDOR. VFR OVER INTERIOR PORTIONS BEHIND FRONT OF COURSE.
OTHERWISE NO CHANGES THIS CYCLE. /23 JMM

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

..SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A LARGE PART OF THE AREA
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...

MESOSCALE UPDATE...LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA SHOW SEA-BREEZE
HAS PROGRESSED INTO SE MS AND SW AL COASTAL COUNTIES WITH A DEEPER
INLAND PENETRATION OBSERVED OVER THE NW FL PANHANDLE. THERE ARE A
FEW ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS ON THE WANE CURRENTLY WITH FEW-SCT CU AROUND
N OF THE SEA-BREEZE FRONT. CU/AC DEBRIS CLOUDS SEEN ADVECTING SWWD
AROUND THE RIDGE INTO OUR WESTERNMOST FL PANHANDLE COUNTIES....THIS
WILL BE TEMPORARY FOR THOSE LOCATION - JUST `PASSING` CLOUDS FOR A
FEW HOURS. BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES STABILIZING AND NET MASS FLUX
LOW LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS COMPUTED AND WITH NICE CONSISTENT RESPONSE
IN CU FIELD AHEAD OF SEA-BREEZE FRONT. THUS...THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD FALL TO 2-5% AND ONLY THROUGH MAINLY 9 PM.
OTRW...SOME CIRRUS CAN BE SEEN ADVECTING SWD AHEAD OF THE NEXT
FRONTAL SYSTEM. THIS CLOUD LAYER HAS NOW MADE IT AS FAR SOUTH AS
HIGHWAY 84.

ANOTHER WARM AND HUMID NIGHT IN STORE AS MIN TEMPS ONLY FALL TO
AROUND 80 DEG(F) ALONG THE COAST AND THIS RANGES TO MID 70S WELL
INLAND. THIS WILL  BE THE LAST UNCOMFORTABLE NIGHT FOR A WHILE! NO
CHANGES MADE TO TEMP AND POP FORECAST IN ZONES.

FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON`S SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT...HAVE ANALYZED
PATTERN...INGREDIENTS AND PROCESSES AND AGREE WITH PREVIOUS SHIFT`S
ASSESSMENT OF TOMORROW AFTERNOONS THREAT OF ISOLD STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. ONE THING THAT STANDS OUT IS THAT STRONG
EVAPORATIVELY COOLED DOWNDRAFTS WILL BE POSSIBLE (SUPPORTED BY MODEL
SOUNDINGS STRONGLY). THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LOCALIZED DAMAGING
WINDS...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS.
GIVEN REASONING...NO CHANGES WERE MADE IN THIS ARENA AND GRAPHICAST
WAS JUST SENT TO DEPICT LATEST TIMING AND WITH IMPACT STATEMENTS
INCLUDED. /23 JMM

AVIATION...[28.00 UTC TAF CYCLE]...FIRST PART OF FORECAST IS ONE
PERSISTENCE AS RIDGE PREVAILS AND AREA REMAINS UNDER LIGHT SFC WSW
TO SW WIND FLOW. VFR CONDITIONS. AS COLD FRONT TOMORROW AFTERNOON
APPROACHES...EXPECT STRONG SCT-NMRS THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY IN A
LINE... TO FORM OVER THE INTERIOR AND MOVE SWD. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
FORM AND MOVE THROUGH INTERIOR TERMINALS DURING THE VERY EARLY
AFTERNOON BUT COVERAGE REALLY INCREASES ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
84...ESPECIALLY OVER COASTAL COUNTIES FROM 3-6 PM. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST TO CLEAR COASTAL TERMINAL SITES BY 7 PM. SO...IN THE
28/21-29/00 UTC PERIOD...MOSTLY MVRF CONDITIONS IN THUNDER BUT SOME
IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO CIGS/VSBYS ANTICIPATED. GIVEN CONTINENTAL
ORIGIN OF AIR ABOVE BOUNDARY LAYER...EXPECT HIGHER BASES AT FIRST
AND THEN AS SUB-CLOUD LAYER EVAPORATIVELY COOLS AND MOISTENS WILL
SEE THOSE `TEMPO` IFR CONDITIONS IN LOCALLY INTENSE DOWNDRAFTS. ONCE
THUNDERSTORMS BEGIN...GUSTY OUTFLOWS TO 50 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT
MOST SHOULD BE IN THE 35-45 KT RANGE WITH THE STRONGEST OF STORMS.
WIND VRBL DURING THIS PERIOD OF THUNDER.  UP TO 1" DIAMETER HAIL MAY
FALL ON A VERY ISOLATED BASIS.  /23 JMM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      94  77  93  71  90 /  20  10  50  40  05
PENSACOLA   92  80  90  74  92 /  20  10  50  40  05
DESTIN      90  79  87  75  91 /  20  10  50  40  05
EVERGREEN   97  75  94  67  90 /  10  10  50  20  00
WAYNESBORO  97  75  94  66  89 /  10  10  50  10  00
CAMDEN      98  75  94  66  89 /  10  10  50  10  00
CRESTVIEW   96  75  95  69  92 /  20  10  50  40  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KMOB 280423 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1123 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.AVIATION...[28.00 UTC TAF CYCLE]...THE REASONING GIVEN IN PREVIOUS
AVIATION AFD SECTION BELOW HOLDS FOR THE 6 UTC CYCLE...EXCEPT SLOWED
SOUTHERLY MOTION OF APPROACHING THUNDERSTORMS BY APPROXIMATELY 1-2
HOURS GIVEN LATEST MESOSCALE GUIDANCE AND ADDITIONAL FINE-TUNING
ADJUSTMENTS FROM PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  SINCE THE UPCOMING TAF CYCLE NOW
INCLUDES 00-06 UTC...SHOWED CONDITIONS TRENDING FROM MVFR (PRIMARILY
DUE TO CIGS) TO VFR DURING THE 2-4 UTC TIME FRAME ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-10 CORRIDOR. VFR OVER INTERIOR PORTIONS BEHIND FRONT OF COURSE.
OTHERWISE NO CHANGES THIS CYCLE. /23 JMM

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

..SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A LARGE PART OF THE AREA
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...

MESOSCALE UPDATE...LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA SHOW SEA-BREEZE
HAS PROGRESSED INTO SE MS AND SW AL COASTAL COUNTIES WITH A DEEPER
INLAND PENETRATION OBSERVED OVER THE NW FL PANHANDLE. THERE ARE A
FEW ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS ON THE WANE CURRENTLY WITH FEW-SCT CU AROUND
N OF THE SEA-BREEZE FRONT. CU/AC DEBRIS CLOUDS SEEN ADVECTING SWWD
AROUND THE RIDGE INTO OUR WESTERNMOST FL PANHANDLE COUNTIES....THIS
WILL BE TEMPORARY FOR THOSE LOCATION - JUST `PASSING` CLOUDS FOR A
FEW HOURS. BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES STABILIZING AND NET MASS FLUX
LOW LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS COMPUTED AND WITH NICE CONSISTENT RESPONSE
IN CU FIELD AHEAD OF SEA-BREEZE FRONT. THUS...THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD FALL TO 2-5% AND ONLY THROUGH MAINLY 9 PM.
OTRW...SOME CIRRUS CAN BE SEEN ADVECTING SWD AHEAD OF THE NEXT
FRONTAL SYSTEM. THIS CLOUD LAYER HAS NOW MADE IT AS FAR SOUTH AS
HIGHWAY 84.

ANOTHER WARM AND HUMID NIGHT IN STORE AS MIN TEMPS ONLY FALL TO
AROUND 80 DEG(F) ALONG THE COAST AND THIS RANGES TO MID 70S WELL
INLAND. THIS WILL  BE THE LAST UNCOMFORTABLE NIGHT FOR A WHILE! NO
CHANGES MADE TO TEMP AND POP FORECAST IN ZONES.

FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON`S SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT...HAVE ANALYZED
PATTERN...INGREDIENTS AND PROCESSES AND AGREE WITH PREVIOUS SHIFT`S
ASSESSMENT OF TOMORROW AFTERNOONS THREAT OF ISOLD STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. ONE THING THAT STANDS OUT IS THAT STRONG
EVAPORATIVELY COOLED DOWNDRAFTS WILL BE POSSIBLE (SUPPORTED BY MODEL
SOUNDINGS STRONGLY). THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LOCALIZED DAMAGING
WINDS...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS.
GIVEN REASONING...NO CHANGES WERE MADE IN THIS ARENA AND GRAPHICAST
WAS JUST SENT TO DEPICT LATEST TIMING AND WITH IMPACT STATEMENTS
INCLUDED. /23 JMM

AVIATION...[28.00 UTC TAF CYCLE]...FIRST PART OF FORECAST IS ONE
PERSISTENCE AS RIDGE PREVAILS AND AREA REMAINS UNDER LIGHT SFC WSW
TO SW WIND FLOW. VFR CONDITIONS. AS COLD FRONT TOMORROW AFTERNOON
APPROACHES...EXPECT STRONG SCT-NMRS THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY IN A
LINE... TO FORM OVER THE INTERIOR AND MOVE SWD. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
FORM AND MOVE THROUGH INTERIOR TERMINALS DURING THE VERY EARLY
AFTERNOON BUT COVERAGE REALLY INCREASES ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
84...ESPECIALLY OVER COASTAL COUNTIES FROM 3-6 PM. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST TO CLEAR COASTAL TERMINAL SITES BY 7 PM. SO...IN THE
28/21-29/00 UTC PERIOD...MOSTLY MVRF CONDITIONS IN THUNDER BUT SOME
IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO CIGS/VSBYS ANTICIPATED. GIVEN CONTINENTAL
ORIGIN OF AIR ABOVE BOUNDARY LAYER...EXPECT HIGHER BASES AT FIRST
AND THEN AS SUB-CLOUD LAYER EVAPORATIVELY COOLS AND MOISTENS WILL
SEE THOSE `TEMPO` IFR CONDITIONS IN LOCALLY INTENSE DOWNDRAFTS. ONCE
THUNDERSTORMS BEGIN...GUSTY OUTFLOWS TO 50 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT
MOST SHOULD BE IN THE 35-45 KT RANGE WITH THE STRONGEST OF STORMS.
WIND VRBL DURING THIS PERIOD OF THUNDER.  UP TO 1" DIAMETER HAIL MAY
FALL ON A VERY ISOLATED BASIS.  /23 JMM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      94  77  93  71  90 /  20  10  50  40  05
PENSACOLA   92  80  90  74  92 /  20  10  50  40  05
DESTIN      90  79  87  75  91 /  20  10  50  40  05
EVERGREEN   97  75  94  67  90 /  10  10  50  20  00
WAYNESBORO  97  75  94  66  89 /  10  10  50  10  00
CAMDEN      98  75  94  66  89 /  10  10  50  10  00
CRESTVIEW   96  75  95  69  92 /  20  10  50  40  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMOB 272319 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
620 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A LARGE PART OF THE AREA
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA SHOW SEA-BREEZE
HAS PROGRESSED INTO SE MS AND SW AL COASTAL COUNTIES WITH A DEEPER
INLAND PENETRATION OBSERVED OVER THE NW FL PANHANDLE. THERE ARE A
FEW ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS ON THE WANE CURRENTLY WITH FEW-SCT CU AROUND
N OF THE SEA-BREEZE FRONT. CU/AC DEBRIS CLOUDS SEEN ADVECTING SWWD
AROUND THE RIDGE INTO OUR WESTERNMOST FL PANHANDLE COUNTIES....THIS
WILL BE TEMPORARY FOR THOSE LOCATION - JUST `PASSING` CLOUDS FOR A
FEW HOURS. BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES STABILIZING AND NET MASS FLUX
LOW LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS COMPUTED AND WITH NICE CONSISTENT RESPONSE
IN CU FIELD AHEAD OF SEA-BREEZE FRONT. THUS...THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD FALL TO 2-5% AND ONLY THROUGH MAINLY 9 PM.
OTRW...SOME CIRRUS CAN BE SEEN ADVECTING SWD AHEAD OF THE NEXT
FRONTAL SYSTEM. THIS CLOUD LAYER HAS NOW MADE IT AS FAR SOUTH AS
HIGHWAY 84.

ANOTHER WARM AND HUMID NIGHT IN STORE AS MIN TEMPS ONLY FALL TO
AROUND 80 DEG(F) ALONG THE COAST AND THIS RANGES TO MID 70S WELL
INLAND. THIS WILL  BE THE LAST UNCOMFORTABLE NIGHT FOR A WHILE! NO
CHANGES MADE TO TEMP AND POP FORECAST IN ZONES.

FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON`S SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT...HAVE ANALYZED
PATTERN...INGREDIENTS AND PROCESSES AND AGREE WITH PREVIOUS SHIFT`S
ASSESSMENT OF TOMORROW AFTERNOONS THREAT OF ISOLD STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. ONE THING THAT STANDS OUT IS THAT STRONG
EVAPORATIVELY COOLED DOWNDRAFTS WILL BE POSSIBLE (SUPPORTED BY MODEL
SOUNDINGS STRONGLY). THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LOCALIZED DAMAGING
WINDS...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS.
GIVEN REASONING...NO CHANGES WERE MADE IN THIS ARENA AND GRAPHICAST
WAS JUST SENT TO DEPICT LATEST TIMING AND WITH IMPACT STATEMENTS
INCLUDED. /23 JMM

&&

.AVIATION...[28.00 UTC TAF CYCLE]...FIRST PART OF FORECAST IS ONE
PERSISTENCE AS RIDGE PREVAILS AND AREA REMAINS UNDER LIGHT SFC WSW
TO SW WIND FLOW. VFR CONDITIONS. AS COLD FRONT TOMORROW AFTERNOON
APPROACHES...EXPECT STRONG SCT-NMRS THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY IN A
LINE... TO FORM OVER THE INTERIOR AND MOVE SWD. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
FORM AND MOVE THROUGH INTERIOR TERMINALS DURING THE VERY EARLY
AFTERNOON BUT COVERAGE REALLY INCREASES ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
84...ESPECIALLY OVER COASTAL COUNTIES FROM 3-6 PM. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST TO CLEAR COASTAL TERMINAL SITES BY 7 PM. SO...IN THE
28/21-29/00 UTC PERIOD...MOSTLY MVRF CONDITIONS IN THUNDER BUT SOME
IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO CIGS/VSBYS ANTICIPATED. GIVEN CONTINENTAL
ORIGIN OF AIR ABOVE BOUNDARY LAYER...EXPECT HIGHER BASES AT FIRST
AND THEN AS SUB-CLOUD LAYER EVAPORATIVELY COOLS AND MOISTENS WILL
SEE THOSE `TEMPO` IFR CONDITIONS IN LOCALLY INTENSE DOWNDRAFTS. ONCE
THUNDERSTORMS BEGIN...GUSTY OUTFLOWS TO 50 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT
MOST SHOULD BE IN THE 35-45 KT RANGE WITH THE STRONGEST OF STORMS.
WIND VRBL DURING THIS PERIOD OF THUNDER.  UP TO 1" DIAMETER HAIL MAY
FALL ON A VERY ISOLATED BASIS.  /23 JMM

&&


.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMOB 272319 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
620 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A LARGE PART OF THE AREA
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA SHOW SEA-BREEZE
HAS PROGRESSED INTO SE MS AND SW AL COASTAL COUNTIES WITH A DEEPER
INLAND PENETRATION OBSERVED OVER THE NW FL PANHANDLE. THERE ARE A
FEW ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS ON THE WANE CURRENTLY WITH FEW-SCT CU AROUND
N OF THE SEA-BREEZE FRONT. CU/AC DEBRIS CLOUDS SEEN ADVECTING SWWD
AROUND THE RIDGE INTO OUR WESTERNMOST FL PANHANDLE COUNTIES....THIS
WILL BE TEMPORARY FOR THOSE LOCATION - JUST `PASSING` CLOUDS FOR A
FEW HOURS. BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES STABILIZING AND NET MASS FLUX
LOW LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS COMPUTED AND WITH NICE CONSISTENT RESPONSE
IN CU FIELD AHEAD OF SEA-BREEZE FRONT. THUS...THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD FALL TO 2-5% AND ONLY THROUGH MAINLY 9 PM.
OTRW...SOME CIRRUS CAN BE SEEN ADVECTING SWD AHEAD OF THE NEXT
FRONTAL SYSTEM. THIS CLOUD LAYER HAS NOW MADE IT AS FAR SOUTH AS
HIGHWAY 84.

ANOTHER WARM AND HUMID NIGHT IN STORE AS MIN TEMPS ONLY FALL TO
AROUND 80 DEG(F) ALONG THE COAST AND THIS RANGES TO MID 70S WELL
INLAND. THIS WILL  BE THE LAST UNCOMFORTABLE NIGHT FOR A WHILE! NO
CHANGES MADE TO TEMP AND POP FORECAST IN ZONES.

FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON`S SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT...HAVE ANALYZED
PATTERN...INGREDIENTS AND PROCESSES AND AGREE WITH PREVIOUS SHIFT`S
ASSESSMENT OF TOMORROW AFTERNOONS THREAT OF ISOLD STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. ONE THING THAT STANDS OUT IS THAT STRONG
EVAPORATIVELY COOLED DOWNDRAFTS WILL BE POSSIBLE (SUPPORTED BY MODEL
SOUNDINGS STRONGLY). THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LOCALIZED DAMAGING
WINDS...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS.
GIVEN REASONING...NO CHANGES WERE MADE IN THIS ARENA AND GRAPHICAST
WAS JUST SENT TO DEPICT LATEST TIMING AND WITH IMPACT STATEMENTS
INCLUDED. /23 JMM

&&

.AVIATION...[28.00 UTC TAF CYCLE]...FIRST PART OF FORECAST IS ONE
PERSISTENCE AS RIDGE PREVAILS AND AREA REMAINS UNDER LIGHT SFC WSW
TO SW WIND FLOW. VFR CONDITIONS. AS COLD FRONT TOMORROW AFTERNOON
APPROACHES...EXPECT STRONG SCT-NMRS THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY IN A
LINE... TO FORM OVER THE INTERIOR AND MOVE SWD. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
FORM AND MOVE THROUGH INTERIOR TERMINALS DURING THE VERY EARLY
AFTERNOON BUT COVERAGE REALLY INCREASES ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
84...ESPECIALLY OVER COASTAL COUNTIES FROM 3-6 PM. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST TO CLEAR COASTAL TERMINAL SITES BY 7 PM. SO...IN THE
28/21-29/00 UTC PERIOD...MOSTLY MVRF CONDITIONS IN THUNDER BUT SOME
IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO CIGS/VSBYS ANTICIPATED. GIVEN CONTINENTAL
ORIGIN OF AIR ABOVE BOUNDARY LAYER...EXPECT HIGHER BASES AT FIRST
AND THEN AS SUB-CLOUD LAYER EVAPORATIVELY COOLS AND MOISTENS WILL
SEE THOSE `TEMPO` IFR CONDITIONS IN LOCALLY INTENSE DOWNDRAFTS. ONCE
THUNDERSTORMS BEGIN...GUSTY OUTFLOWS TO 50 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT
MOST SHOULD BE IN THE 35-45 KT RANGE WITH THE STRONGEST OF STORMS.
WIND VRBL DURING THIS PERIOD OF THUNDER.  UP TO 1" DIAMETER HAIL MAY
FALL ON A VERY ISOLATED BASIS.  /23 JMM

&&


.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMOB 272037
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
337 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS
AFTERNOON STILL LOOKS TO BE HEAT INDEX VALUES CLIMBING TO AROUND 105
TO 107 FOR MOST INLAND AREAS...GENERALLY EAST OF A LINE FROM MOBILE
TO THOMASVILLE IN AL. OTHER INLAND AREAS TO THE WEST WILL RANGE FROM
101 TO 105 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON
MON WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES RANGING FROM 102 TO 107 FOR MOST INLAND
AREAS WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME RELIEF DUE TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS FORMING MOSTLY DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
HOURS. ALOFT A MID TO UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DIG
OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY AND EASTERN CONUS ALLOWING FOR BETTER
FORCING OR LIFT IN THE MID LEVELS TO BEGIN MOVING SOUTHWARD TOWARDS
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION BY EARLY MON ALLOWING FOR BETTER
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MON
AFTERNOON COMPARED TO THE LAST 3 TO 4 DAYS. WITH THIS PATTERN A WEAK
TO MODERATE COLD FRONT IS ALSO NOTED NEAR THE SFC MOVING SOUTHWARD
TOWARDS THE COAST BY LATE MON AFTERNOON INTO MON EVENING. DUE TO THE
DEPTH OF THE COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT COMBINED WITH SFC BASED
CAPES CLIMBING TO ABOVE 3000 J/KG AND THE BETTER FORCING ALOFT...THE
THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER IS GREATER FOR MON. LATEST THINKING FROM THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK PLACES MUCH OF THE CWFA IN A
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON MON. FOR NOW WILL MENTION GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN IN ZONE FORECAST FOR MON AND MONITOR THIS
DEVELOPING SITUATION CLOSELY TONIGHT AND EARLY MON MORNING. DAMAGING
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND MEDIUM
TO LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. ALSO SOME MINOR FLOODING OF
STREETS AND LOW LYING AREAS MAY BECOME A CONCERN BY LATE AFTERNOON
DUE TO VERY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLY TRAINING OVER SOME AREAS ESPECIALLY
OVER THE LOWER HALF OF THE CWFA IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. AS FOR
TEMPS WILL LEAN TOWARDS CURRENT MET GUIDANCE WHICH DEPICTS SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPS FOR TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ON MON DUE
TO BETTER MIXING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER ALONG WITH BETTER COVERAGE OF
CLOUDS AND RAIN. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM MID 70S FOR MOST INLAND
AREAS AND THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 CLOSER THE COAST. FOR MON HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 90S FOR INLAND AREAS GENERALLY NORTH OF THE
I-10 CORRIDOR AND THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S CLOSER TO THE COAST.
32/EE

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK REMAINS HIGH.

THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT AND MOVE FURTHER OFFSHORE BY
DAYBREAK TUESDAY. SCATTERED STORMS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...WITH
RAIN CHANCES QUICKLY DIMINISHING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. ALL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH OF THE COAST AFTER
MIDNIGHT. STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING AS MID TO UPPER 70 DEWPOINTS CONTINUE
TO FUEL MLCAPES OF 2500-3500 J/KG AHEAD OF THE FRONT. LOWS WILL DROP
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S WELL INLAND WITH LOW 70S ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. 34/JFB

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...MUCH DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT
INTO THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES. PRECIPITABLE WATERS
WILL DROP TO 1 INCH OR LESS WHICH IS AN IMPRESSIVE 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL. THIS WILL KEEP HIGHS NEAR OR A DEGREE OR TWO
BELOW NORMAL...BUT HEAT INDICES WILL NOT BE A CONCERN. THE REAL
DIFFERENCE WILL BE FELT IN MORNING LOWS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
MORNING. LOW TO MID 60S WILL BE PREDOMINATE ACROSS THE AREA...WITH
UPPER 60S AT THE BEACHES AND SOME UPPER 50S POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR
INLAND PORTIONS OF THE AREA (GENERALLY NORTH OF A WAYNESBORO TO CAMDEN
LINE). THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN SOME HIGH CLOUDS EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...SO WE ARE SHOWING LOWS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY WARMER COMPARED TO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...IF THE HIGH CLOUDS REMAIN THIN ENOUGH...THEN
THURSDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY BE THE COOLEST MORNING OF THE WEEK.

HERE ARE THE RECORD LOWS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNING:

MOBILE REGIONAL AIRPORT:
JULY 30TH: 67/1968
JULY 31ST: 66/1984

PENSACOLA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT:
JULY 30TH: 67/1994
JULY 31ST: 67/1936

A DEEP MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHEAST CANADA WILL GRADUALLY
RETROGRADE WEST BY LATE IN THE WEEK...SHIFTING THE MEAN TROUGH AXIS
FURTHER TO THE WEST. THIS RESULTS IN MOISTURE VALUES INCREASING WITH
TIME AND AT LEAST SMALL RAIN CHANCES RETURNING TO THE FORECAST FRI-
SUN. THERE HAS BEEN A LOT OF RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCY REGARDING THE
EVOLUTION OF THE TROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK...SO IT IS DIFFICULT TO
PINPOINT THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES AT THIS JUNCTURE. THEREFORE...WILL
NOT MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS. 34/JFB

&&

.AVIATION (00Z ISSUANCE)...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 28.12Z
FOLLOWED BY MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 29.00Z. LOWER CIGS MAINLY
IN AND AROUND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY ON
MON. A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH DAMAGING STRAIGHT
LINE WINDS...HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING BEING
THE MAIN THREATS. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING DIMINISHING TO 4 TO 6 KNOTS
TONIGHT AND EARLY MON THEN INCREASING TO 8 TO 12 KNOTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON. 32/EE

&&

.MARINE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL GULF THROUGH EARLY MON MORNING THEN WEAKEN AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST. WITH THIS PATTERN A MODERATE TO OCCASIONAL STRONG
SOUTHWEST FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH MON
EVENING WITH WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 20 KNOTS AT TIMES ESPECIALLY OVER
THE OPEN GULF WATERS ON MON. SEAS UP TO 4 FEET FROM 0 TO 60 NM OUT
WILL ALSO BE LIKELY BY LATE MON AFTERNOON WITH THE STRONGER
SOUTHWEST FLOW. AS A RESULT WILL MENTION SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION OVER THE OPEN GULF WATERS TONIGHT AND ON MON. BY LATE MON
AFTERNOON SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME POSSIBLE STRONG OR SEVERE...
WILL BE WORKING SOUTH TOWARDS THE COAST MOVING OVER THE OPEN GULF
WATERS POSSIBLY BY LATE MON AFTERNOON CONTINUING THROUGH MON EVENING
THEN MOVING WELL OFFSHORE BY EARLY TUE MORNING. BY EARLY TUE THE COLD
FRONT MOVES OFF THE COAST LEADING TO A LIGHT TO MODERATE OFFSHORE
FLOW THROUGH EARLY TUE AFTERNOON THEN DIMINISHING QUICKLY THROUGH TUE
EVENING...REBUILDING TUE NIGHT MOSTLY DUE TO COOL AIR DRAINAGE. A
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL REDEVELOP BY LATE WED AFTERNOON AND WED
EVENING BECOMING BETTER DEVELOPED LATER IN THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
BECOMES REESTABLISHED OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN GULF.
32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      77  93  71  90  66 /  10  50  30  05  00
PENSACOLA   80  90  74  92  69 /  10  50  30  05  00
DESTIN      79  87  75  91  73 /  10  50  40  05  00
EVERGREEN   75  94  67  90  61 /  10  50  20  00  00
WAYNESBORO  75  94  66  89  60 /  10  50  10  00  05
CAMDEN      75  94  66  89  60 /  10  50  10  00  05
CRESTVIEW   75  95  69  92  64 /  10  50  30  05  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KMOB 272037
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
337 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS
AFTERNOON STILL LOOKS TO BE HEAT INDEX VALUES CLIMBING TO AROUND 105
TO 107 FOR MOST INLAND AREAS...GENERALLY EAST OF A LINE FROM MOBILE
TO THOMASVILLE IN AL. OTHER INLAND AREAS TO THE WEST WILL RANGE FROM
101 TO 105 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON
MON WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES RANGING FROM 102 TO 107 FOR MOST INLAND
AREAS WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME RELIEF DUE TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS FORMING MOSTLY DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
HOURS. ALOFT A MID TO UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DIG
OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY AND EASTERN CONUS ALLOWING FOR BETTER
FORCING OR LIFT IN THE MID LEVELS TO BEGIN MOVING SOUTHWARD TOWARDS
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION BY EARLY MON ALLOWING FOR BETTER
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MON
AFTERNOON COMPARED TO THE LAST 3 TO 4 DAYS. WITH THIS PATTERN A WEAK
TO MODERATE COLD FRONT IS ALSO NOTED NEAR THE SFC MOVING SOUTHWARD
TOWARDS THE COAST BY LATE MON AFTERNOON INTO MON EVENING. DUE TO THE
DEPTH OF THE COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT COMBINED WITH SFC BASED
CAPES CLIMBING TO ABOVE 3000 J/KG AND THE BETTER FORCING ALOFT...THE
THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER IS GREATER FOR MON. LATEST THINKING FROM THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK PLACES MUCH OF THE CWFA IN A
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON MON. FOR NOW WILL MENTION GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN IN ZONE FORECAST FOR MON AND MONITOR THIS
DEVELOPING SITUATION CLOSELY TONIGHT AND EARLY MON MORNING. DAMAGING
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND MEDIUM
TO LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. ALSO SOME MINOR FLOODING OF
STREETS AND LOW LYING AREAS MAY BECOME A CONCERN BY LATE AFTERNOON
DUE TO VERY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLY TRAINING OVER SOME AREAS ESPECIALLY
OVER THE LOWER HALF OF THE CWFA IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. AS FOR
TEMPS WILL LEAN TOWARDS CURRENT MET GUIDANCE WHICH DEPICTS SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPS FOR TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ON MON DUE
TO BETTER MIXING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER ALONG WITH BETTER COVERAGE OF
CLOUDS AND RAIN. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM MID 70S FOR MOST INLAND
AREAS AND THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 CLOSER THE COAST. FOR MON HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 90S FOR INLAND AREAS GENERALLY NORTH OF THE
I-10 CORRIDOR AND THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S CLOSER TO THE COAST.
32/EE

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK REMAINS HIGH.

THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT AND MOVE FURTHER OFFSHORE BY
DAYBREAK TUESDAY. SCATTERED STORMS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...WITH
RAIN CHANCES QUICKLY DIMINISHING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. ALL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH OF THE COAST AFTER
MIDNIGHT. STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING AS MID TO UPPER 70 DEWPOINTS CONTINUE
TO FUEL MLCAPES OF 2500-3500 J/KG AHEAD OF THE FRONT. LOWS WILL DROP
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S WELL INLAND WITH LOW 70S ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. 34/JFB

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...MUCH DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT
INTO THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES. PRECIPITABLE WATERS
WILL DROP TO 1 INCH OR LESS WHICH IS AN IMPRESSIVE 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL. THIS WILL KEEP HIGHS NEAR OR A DEGREE OR TWO
BELOW NORMAL...BUT HEAT INDICES WILL NOT BE A CONCERN. THE REAL
DIFFERENCE WILL BE FELT IN MORNING LOWS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
MORNING. LOW TO MID 60S WILL BE PREDOMINATE ACROSS THE AREA...WITH
UPPER 60S AT THE BEACHES AND SOME UPPER 50S POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR
INLAND PORTIONS OF THE AREA (GENERALLY NORTH OF A WAYNESBORO TO CAMDEN
LINE). THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN SOME HIGH CLOUDS EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...SO WE ARE SHOWING LOWS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY WARMER COMPARED TO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...IF THE HIGH CLOUDS REMAIN THIN ENOUGH...THEN
THURSDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY BE THE COOLEST MORNING OF THE WEEK.

HERE ARE THE RECORD LOWS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNING:

MOBILE REGIONAL AIRPORT:
JULY 30TH: 67/1968
JULY 31ST: 66/1984

PENSACOLA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT:
JULY 30TH: 67/1994
JULY 31ST: 67/1936

A DEEP MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHEAST CANADA WILL GRADUALLY
RETROGRADE WEST BY LATE IN THE WEEK...SHIFTING THE MEAN TROUGH AXIS
FURTHER TO THE WEST. THIS RESULTS IN MOISTURE VALUES INCREASING WITH
TIME AND AT LEAST SMALL RAIN CHANCES RETURNING TO THE FORECAST FRI-
SUN. THERE HAS BEEN A LOT OF RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCY REGARDING THE
EVOLUTION OF THE TROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK...SO IT IS DIFFICULT TO
PINPOINT THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES AT THIS JUNCTURE. THEREFORE...WILL
NOT MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS. 34/JFB

&&

.AVIATION (00Z ISSUANCE)...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 28.12Z
FOLLOWED BY MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 29.00Z. LOWER CIGS MAINLY
IN AND AROUND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY ON
MON. A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH DAMAGING STRAIGHT
LINE WINDS...HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING BEING
THE MAIN THREATS. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING DIMINISHING TO 4 TO 6 KNOTS
TONIGHT AND EARLY MON THEN INCREASING TO 8 TO 12 KNOTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON. 32/EE

&&

.MARINE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL GULF THROUGH EARLY MON MORNING THEN WEAKEN AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST. WITH THIS PATTERN A MODERATE TO OCCASIONAL STRONG
SOUTHWEST FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH MON
EVENING WITH WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 20 KNOTS AT TIMES ESPECIALLY OVER
THE OPEN GULF WATERS ON MON. SEAS UP TO 4 FEET FROM 0 TO 60 NM OUT
WILL ALSO BE LIKELY BY LATE MON AFTERNOON WITH THE STRONGER
SOUTHWEST FLOW. AS A RESULT WILL MENTION SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION OVER THE OPEN GULF WATERS TONIGHT AND ON MON. BY LATE MON
AFTERNOON SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME POSSIBLE STRONG OR SEVERE...
WILL BE WORKING SOUTH TOWARDS THE COAST MOVING OVER THE OPEN GULF
WATERS POSSIBLY BY LATE MON AFTERNOON CONTINUING THROUGH MON EVENING
THEN MOVING WELL OFFSHORE BY EARLY TUE MORNING. BY EARLY TUE THE COLD
FRONT MOVES OFF THE COAST LEADING TO A LIGHT TO MODERATE OFFSHORE
FLOW THROUGH EARLY TUE AFTERNOON THEN DIMINISHING QUICKLY THROUGH TUE
EVENING...REBUILDING TUE NIGHT MOSTLY DUE TO COOL AIR DRAINAGE. A
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL REDEVELOP BY LATE WED AFTERNOON AND WED
EVENING BECOMING BETTER DEVELOPED LATER IN THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
BECOMES REESTABLISHED OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN GULF.
32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      77  93  71  90  66 /  10  50  30  05  00
PENSACOLA   80  90  74  92  69 /  10  50  30  05  00
DESTIN      79  87  75  91  73 /  10  50  40  05  00
EVERGREEN   75  94  67  90  61 /  10  50  20  00  00
WAYNESBORO  75  94  66  89  60 /  10  50  10  00  05
CAMDEN      75  94  66  89  60 /  10  50  10  00  05
CRESTVIEW   75  95  69  92  64 /  10  50  30  05  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMOB 271900 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
139 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.AVIATION...[27.18Z AND 28.00Z ISSUANCES]...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH 28.12Z FOLLOWED BY MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 29.00Z.
LOWER CIGS MAINLY IN AND AROUND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPING
DURING THE DAY ON MON. A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH
DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS...HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING BEING THE MAIN THREATS. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY
SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING
DIMINISHING TO 4 TO 6 KNOTS TONIGHT AND EARLY MON THEN INCREASING TO
8 TO 12 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON. 32/EE

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND EASTWARD TODAY ACROSS THE
GULF COAST. THE RESULTING INCREASED UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL LEAD TO
WARMER TEMPS AREAWIDE THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER
90S AWAY FROM THE COAST. THE UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WILL SERVE TO
PREVENT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANYTHING MORE THAN ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING A SHOWER OR STORM WILL BE
ACROSS COASTAL AREAS WHERE THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE WILL AIDE
DEVELOPMENT. IF A THUNDERSTORM IS ABLE TO DEVELOP...ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS FAVOR AN INCREASED RISK OF GUSTY WINDS. HOWEVER...MOST
AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY AND VERY HOT. MUGGY CONDITIONS WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE LOW 70S WILL PRODUCE HEAT INDEX VALUES THAT TOP OUT AROUND
105 TO 106 DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. IF YOU PLAN
TO BE OUTSIDE TODAY...BE SURE TO TAKE PRECAUTIONS DUE TO THE HEAT.
MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER
70S. /13

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK: HIGH

(MONDAY AND TUESDAY)...UPPER RIDGING OVER THE AREA BREAKS DOWN ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A DEEPENING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF DEVELOPS
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THE DEEPENING TROF WILL PUSH
A SFC COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FCST AREA EARLY
MONDAY...DROPPING DOWN TO THE COAST BY MONDAY EVENING AND THEN ON
OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY. WITH THE FRONT PROVIDING A LOLVL FORCING
MECHANISM IN THE VERY HUMID AIRMASS...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AS IT
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. CURRENTLY EXPECTING A GOOD CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS...ESPECIALLY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHEN
WE ARE CALLING FOR A 40-50 PERCENT CHANCE OF PCPN. BY LATE MONDAY
NIGHT MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE OFFSHORE WITH ONLY A
LINGERING CHANCE ALONG THE COAST. BY TUESDAY RAINS ENDED ACROSS
ENTIRE FCST AREA AS FRONT MOVES WELL SOUTH AND MUCH DRIER AIRMASS
BUILDS. ALTHOUGH WE WILL HAVE INCREASED CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES ON
MONDAY...STILL EXPECT DAYTIME MAX TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE MIDDLE 90S
OVER INTERIOR COUNTIES AND LOWER 90S COASTAL ZONES BEFORE THE PCPN
COVERAGE BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD AS WELL AS OUTSIDE OF RAIN AREAS.
WILL AGAIN LIKELY SEE MAX HEAT INDEX VALUES UP TO AROUND 105 DEGREES
ON MONDAY. GETTING COOLER ON MONDAY NIGHT AS DRIER AIRMASS BEGINS TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING
FROM THE MID 60S FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES TO THE LOW TO MID 70S COASTAL.
ON TUESDAY DAYTIME MAX TEMPS LOWER SLIGHTLY...TO UPPER 80S AND LOWER
90S. THE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS WILL FEEL EVEN MORE PLEASANT DUE TO
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AND RESULTANT RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S OVER MOST OF THE AREA. TUESDAY
NIGHT MIN TEMPS IN THE 60S ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...EXPECT AROUND 70
IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS. 12/DS

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS MOVES
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...AND PERSISTS
FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE LONGER TERM FCST PERIOD. PRIMARILY A
TEMPERATURE FCST WITH LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL EXPECTED. HIGHS WEDNESDAY
AGAIN IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S...THEN GENERALLY IN THE LOWER
90S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS STILL EXPECTED
TO BE AROUND 8-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR
(MAKING THIS THE THIRD ABNORMALLY COOL SPELL DURING THE MONTH OF
JULY). LOWS EACH NIGHT THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOK TO RANGE
FROM THE LOWER 60S INTERIOR TO MID 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST AND UPPER
60S OR AROUND 70S AT THE BEACHES. 12/DS

&&

.AVIATION (27.12Z ISSUANCE)...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IS
POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND VCTS. /13

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND MOVE ACROSS THE MARINE AREA ON TUESDAY. SOUTHWEST
WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON MONDAY WITH A LIGHT TO
MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. /13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      94  76  95  72  90 /  20  10  50  40  10
PENSACOLA   92  79  94  76  92 /  20  10  50  40  10
DESTIN      90  79  91  78  90 /  20  10  50  40  10
EVERGREEN   97  75  97  69  89 /  10  10  50  30  05
WAYNESBORO  97  74  96  68  91 /  10  10  50  20  05
CAMDEN      98  75  96  67  88 /  10  10  50  20  05
CRESTVIEW   96  74  97  72  93 /  20  10  50  40  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMOB 270951
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
451 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND EASTWARD TODAY ACROSS THE
GULF COAST. THE RESULTING INCREASED UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL LEAD TO
WARMER TEMPS AREAWIDE THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER
90S AWAY FROM THE COAST. THE UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WILL SERVE TO
PREVENT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANYTHING MORE THAN ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING A SHOWER OR STORM WILL BE
ACROSS COASTAL AREAS WHERE THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE WILL AIDE
DEVELOPMENT. IF A THUNDERSTORM IS ABLE TO DEVELOP...ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS FAVOR AN INCREASED RISK OF GUSTY WINDS. HOWEVER...MOST
AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY AND VERY HOT. MUGGY CONDITIONS WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE LOW 70S WILL PRODUCE HEAT INDEX VALUES THAT TOP OUT AROUND
105 TO 106 DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. IF YOU PLAN
TO BE OUTSIDE TODAY...BE SURE TO TAKE PRECAUTIONS DUE TO THE HEAT.
MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER
70S. /13

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK: HIGH

(MONDAY AND TUESDAY)...UPPER RIDGING OVER THE AREA BREAKS DOWN ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A DEEPENING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF DEVELOPS
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THE DEEPENING TROF WILL PUSH
A SFC COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FCST AREA EARLY
MONDAY...DROPPING DOWN TO THE COAST BY MONDAY EVENING AND THEN ON
OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY. WITH THE FRONT PROVIDING A LOLVL FORCING
MECHANISM IN THE VERY HUMID AIRMASS...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AS IT
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. CURRENTLY EXPECTING A GOOD CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS...ESPECIALLY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHEN
WE ARE CALLING FOR A 40-50 PERCENT CHANCE OF PCPN. BY LATE MONDAY
NIGHT MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE OFFSHORE WITH ONLY A
LINGERING CHANCE ALONG THE COAST. BY TUESDAY RAINS ENDED ACROSS
ENTIRE FCST AREA AS FRONT MOVES WELL SOUTH AND MUCH DRIER AIRMASS
BUILDS. ALTHOUGH WE WILL HAVE INCREASED CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES ON
MONDAY...STILL EXPECT DAYTIME MAX TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE MIDDLE 90S
OVER INTERIOR COUNTIES AND LOWER 90S COASTAL ZONES BEFORE THE PCPN
COVERAGE BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD AS WELL AS OUTSIDE OF RAIN AREAS.
WILL AGAIN LIKELY SEE MAX HEAT INDEX VALUES UP TO AROUND 105 DEGREES
ON MONDAY. GETTING COOLER ON MONDAY NIGHT AS DRIER AIRMASS BEGINS TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING
FROM THE MID 60S FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES TO THE LOW TO MID 70S COASTAL.
ON TUESDAY DAYTIME MAX TEMPS LOWER SLIGHTLY...TO UPPER 80S AND LOWER
90S. THE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS WILL FEEL EVEN MORE PLEASANT DUE TO
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AND RESULTANT RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S OVER MOST OF THE AREA. TUESDAY
NIGHT MIN TEMPS IN THE 60S ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...EXPECT AROUND 70
IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS. 12/DS

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS MOVES
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...AND PERSISTS
FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE LONGER TERM FCST PERIOD. PRIMARILY A
TEMPERATURE FCST WITH LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL EXPECTED. HIGHS WEDNESDAY
AGAIN IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S...THEN GENERALLY IN THE LOWER
90S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS STILL EXPECTED
TO BE AROUND 8-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR
(MAKING THIS THE THIRD ABNORMALLY COOL SPELL DURING THE MONTH OF
JULY). LOWS EACH NIGHT THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOK TO RANGE
FROM THE LOWER 60S INTERIOR TO MID 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST AND UPPER
60S OR AROUND 70S AT THE BEACHES. 12/DS

&&

.AVIATION (27.12Z ISSUANCE)...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IS
POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND VCTS. /13

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND MOVE ACROSS THE MARINE AREA ON TUESDAY. SOUTHWEST
WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON MONDAY WITH A LIGHT TO
MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. /13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      94  76  95  72  90 /  20  10  50  40  10
PENSACOLA   92  79  94  76  92 /  20  10  50  40  10
DESTIN      90  79  91  78  90 /  20  10  50  40  10
EVERGREEN   97  75  97  69  89 /  10  10  50  30  05
WAYNESBORO  97  74  96  68  91 /  10  10  50  20  05
CAMDEN      98  75  96  67  88 /  10  10  50  20  05
CRESTVIEW   96  74  97  72  93 /  20  10  50  40  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMOB 270951
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
451 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND EASTWARD TODAY ACROSS THE
GULF COAST. THE RESULTING INCREASED UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL LEAD TO
WARMER TEMPS AREAWIDE THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER
90S AWAY FROM THE COAST. THE UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WILL SERVE TO
PREVENT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANYTHING MORE THAN ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING A SHOWER OR STORM WILL BE
ACROSS COASTAL AREAS WHERE THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE WILL AIDE
DEVELOPMENT. IF A THUNDERSTORM IS ABLE TO DEVELOP...ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS FAVOR AN INCREASED RISK OF GUSTY WINDS. HOWEVER...MOST
AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY AND VERY HOT. MUGGY CONDITIONS WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE LOW 70S WILL PRODUCE HEAT INDEX VALUES THAT TOP OUT AROUND
105 TO 106 DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. IF YOU PLAN
TO BE OUTSIDE TODAY...BE SURE TO TAKE PRECAUTIONS DUE TO THE HEAT.
MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER
70S. /13

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK: HIGH

(MONDAY AND TUESDAY)...UPPER RIDGING OVER THE AREA BREAKS DOWN ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A DEEPENING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF DEVELOPS
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THE DEEPENING TROF WILL PUSH
A SFC COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FCST AREA EARLY
MONDAY...DROPPING DOWN TO THE COAST BY MONDAY EVENING AND THEN ON
OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY. WITH THE FRONT PROVIDING A LOLVL FORCING
MECHANISM IN THE VERY HUMID AIRMASS...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AS IT
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. CURRENTLY EXPECTING A GOOD CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS...ESPECIALLY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHEN
WE ARE CALLING FOR A 40-50 PERCENT CHANCE OF PCPN. BY LATE MONDAY
NIGHT MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE OFFSHORE WITH ONLY A
LINGERING CHANCE ALONG THE COAST. BY TUESDAY RAINS ENDED ACROSS
ENTIRE FCST AREA AS FRONT MOVES WELL SOUTH AND MUCH DRIER AIRMASS
BUILDS. ALTHOUGH WE WILL HAVE INCREASED CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES ON
MONDAY...STILL EXPECT DAYTIME MAX TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE MIDDLE 90S
OVER INTERIOR COUNTIES AND LOWER 90S COASTAL ZONES BEFORE THE PCPN
COVERAGE BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD AS WELL AS OUTSIDE OF RAIN AREAS.
WILL AGAIN LIKELY SEE MAX HEAT INDEX VALUES UP TO AROUND 105 DEGREES
ON MONDAY. GETTING COOLER ON MONDAY NIGHT AS DRIER AIRMASS BEGINS TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING
FROM THE MID 60S FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES TO THE LOW TO MID 70S COASTAL.
ON TUESDAY DAYTIME MAX TEMPS LOWER SLIGHTLY...TO UPPER 80S AND LOWER
90S. THE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS WILL FEEL EVEN MORE PLEASANT DUE TO
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AND RESULTANT RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S OVER MOST OF THE AREA. TUESDAY
NIGHT MIN TEMPS IN THE 60S ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...EXPECT AROUND 70
IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS. 12/DS

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS MOVES
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...AND PERSISTS
FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE LONGER TERM FCST PERIOD. PRIMARILY A
TEMPERATURE FCST WITH LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL EXPECTED. HIGHS WEDNESDAY
AGAIN IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S...THEN GENERALLY IN THE LOWER
90S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS STILL EXPECTED
TO BE AROUND 8-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR
(MAKING THIS THE THIRD ABNORMALLY COOL SPELL DURING THE MONTH OF
JULY). LOWS EACH NIGHT THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOK TO RANGE
FROM THE LOWER 60S INTERIOR TO MID 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST AND UPPER
60S OR AROUND 70S AT THE BEACHES. 12/DS

&&

.AVIATION (27.12Z ISSUANCE)...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IS
POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND VCTS. /13

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND MOVE ACROSS THE MARINE AREA ON TUESDAY. SOUTHWEST
WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON MONDAY WITH A LIGHT TO
MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. /13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      94  76  95  72  90 /  20  10  50  40  10
PENSACOLA   92  79  94  76  92 /  20  10  50  40  10
DESTIN      90  79  91  78  90 /  20  10  50  40  10
EVERGREEN   97  75  97  69  89 /  10  10  50  30  05
WAYNESBORO  97  74  96  68  91 /  10  10  50  20  05
CAMDEN      98  75  96  67  88 /  10  10  50  20  05
CRESTVIEW   96  74  97  72  93 /  20  10  50  40  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMOB 270423 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1120 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.AVIATION [27.06Z TAF ISSUANCE]...SKY AND VISIBILITY OK IN THE NEAR
TERM. LIGHT WIND. /10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      75  92  76  93  72 /  10  20  10  50  40
PENSACOLA   78  90  78  93  74 /  10  20  10  50  40
DESTIN      77  86  80  91  77 /  10  20  10  50  40
EVERGREEN   73  96  74  94  68 /  10  10  10  50  20
WAYNESBORO  73  95  74  93  67 /  05  10  10  50  20
CAMDEN      73  98  74  93  66 /  05  10  10  50  20
CRESTVIEW   73  95  74  94  71 /  10  20  10  50  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$












000
FXUS64 KMOB 270423 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1120 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.AVIATION [27.06Z TAF ISSUANCE]...SKY AND VISIBILITY OK IN THE NEAR
TERM. LIGHT WIND. /10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      75  92  76  93  72 /  10  20  10  50  40
PENSACOLA   78  90  78  93  74 /  10  20  10  50  40
DESTIN      77  86  80  91  77 /  10  20  10  50  40
EVERGREEN   73  96  74  94  68 /  10  10  10  50  20
WAYNESBORO  73  95  74  93  67 /  05  10  10  50  20
CAMDEN      73  98  74  93  66 /  05  10  10  50  20
CRESTVIEW   73  95  74  94  71 /  10  20  10  50  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$













000
FXUS64 KMOB 262340 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
640 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.AVIATION [27.00Z TAF ISSUANCE]...MUCH MORE QUIET ON THE RADAR
HEADING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. ONLY A FEW POPUP SHOWERS/STORMS
NORTH OF THE TERMINALS WITH SEA-BREEZE. SKY AND VISIBILITY OK IN THE
NEAR TERM. LIGHT WIND. /10

THIS EVENING...WILL LOWER PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION (POP) TO LESS THAN
20% AS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS/STORMS WERE OCCURRING ON RADAR.
ONLY A FEW POPUP SHOWERS/STORMS HERE AND THERE WILL BE BEST DESCRIBED
WITH 5 TO 10% POPS. UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE
FOUR CORNERS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...EASTWARD TO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE EASTERN NOSE OF THE UPPER RIDGE IS LEADING
TO MORE SUPPRESSION IN EVENING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDS OVER THE GULF. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE MOSTLY IN THE
MID 70S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. /10

&&

.FROM PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014/

SHORT TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...FOR SUNDAY MODEL SOUNDING
SUGGEST ENOUGH DRY AIR ADVECTS SOUTH TO THE COAST LIMITING THE CHANCE
FOR ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP FOR ALL AREAS IN THE CWFA THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. WITH THIS WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LOWER HALF OF THE CWFA DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL
CONTINUE TO BE HIGHER HEAT INDEX VALUES COMPARED TO EARLIER IN THE
WEEK WITH VALUES RUNNING BETWEEN 100 TO 106 DEGREES. WITH BETTER
SUNSHINE EXPECTED COMBINED WITH THE HIGHER HUMIDITY LEVELS...CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE FEEL VERY MUGGY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AS FOR TEMPS
WILL USE A BLEND OF THE CURRENT MAV AND 00Z ECMWF GUIDANCE THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO
UPPER 90S FOR INLAND AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S CLOSER TO THE COAST. 32/EE

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK REMAINS MODERATE.

A VERY MILD AND MUGGY NIGHT IS EXPECTED AGAIN ON SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE IN EARNEST ON MONDAY
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY OVER THE EASTERN
STATES...ERODING THE INFLUENCE OF UPPER RIDGING LOCATED TO OUR WEST.
THIS AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN
FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE FRONT PUSHING OFFSHORE BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT IT WILL BECOME
VERY UNSTABLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH MLCAPES INCREASING TO 3500-4000
J/KG...WHICH COMBINED WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...INDICATING
THAT SOME STRONG STORMS ARE LIKELY WITH AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM
POSSIBLE. THE STRONG STORMS WILL PRODUCE FREQUENT TO NEAR CONTINUOUS
LIGHTNING STRIKES...GUSTY WINDS...AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS. THE
GREATEST THREAT FROM ANY SEVERE STORM WILL BE LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS. POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
LIMIT THE POTENTIAL OF A MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER EVENT.

DRIER AIR WILL QUICKLY ADVECT IN FROM THE NORTH...CONFINING MONDAY
EVENING STORM CHANCES TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...WITH ALL
LAND AREAS LIKELY BEING DRY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

MONDAY HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S. HOWEVER...DEWPOINTS
WILL STAY IN THE MID TO POTENTIALLY UPPER 70S AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. THIS WILL PUT HEAT INDICES IN THE 103-106 DEGREE RANGE. THE
PASSING FRONT WILL DROP LOWS INTO THE UPPER 60S ALONG AND NORTH OF
HWY 84...WITH LOW TO MID 70S STILL EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTHERN ZONES.
34/JFB

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...MUCH DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE
TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE
OF THE COLD FRONT WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS DROPPING TO AN
UNSEASONABLY LOW 0.75-1.00 INCH. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR OR PERHAPS A
DEGREE OR TWO BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE BIG STORY
WILL BE WITH LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNINGS GIVEN
THE ABUNDANT DRY AIR IN PLACE. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE
LOW TO MID 60 BOTH MORNINGS...WHICH WILL BE CLOSE TO RECORD LEVELS.
IN FACT...A FEW UPPER 50S ARE EVEN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN
RURAL AREAS THURSDAY MORNING. WENT A FEW DEGREES BELOW MEX GUIDANCE
AS THIS EVENT SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO THE PAST 2 COLD FRONT EVENTS
THIS MONTH THAT BROUGHT RECORD LOWS TO MOBILE AND PENSACOLA. HERE ARE
THE RECORD LOWS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNINGS...

MOBILE REGIONAL AIRPORT:
JULY 30TH: 67/1968
JULY 31ST: 66/1984

PENSACOLA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT:
JULY 30TH: 67/1994
JULY 31ST: 67/1936

MOISTURE LEVELS GRADUALLY INCREASE BY THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND AS THE MEAN TROUGH AXIS BECOMES POSITIONED WEST OF THE AREA.
WILL MAINTAIN 20-30% RAIN CHANCES FOR FRI-SAT. 34/JFB

MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL GULF THROUGH EARLY MON THEN WEAKEN AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE AND WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. WITH
THIS PATTERN A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED OVER
THE MARINE AREA THROUGH THE SUN NIGHT FOLLOWED BY INCREASING WINDS
AND SEAS MON AND MON NIGHT AHEAD OF THE WEAK FRONT. BY LATE MON
AFTERNOON INTO MON EVENING SMALL CRAFT WILL LIKELY HAVE TO EXERCISE
CAUTION WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 20 KNOTS. SEAS WILL
ALSO BUILD AHEAD OF THE FRONT INCREASING TO AROUND 4 FT LATE MON AND
MON NIGHT. NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT BY TUES
DIMINISHINGS QUICKLY DURING THE DAY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
FROM THE NORTH AND WEST. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      75  92  76  93  72 /  10  20  10  50  40
PENSACOLA   78  90  78  93  74 /  10  20  10  50  40
DESTIN      77  86  80  91  77 /  10  20  10  50  40
EVERGREEN   73  96  74  94  68 /  10  10  10  50  20
WAYNESBORO  73  95  74  93  67 /  05  10  10  50  20
CAMDEN      73  98  74  93  66 /  05  10  10  50  20
CRESTVIEW   73  95  74  94  71 /  10  20  10  50  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KMOB 262113 CCA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED TEXT...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
404 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...LATEST RADAR AND
SATELLITE LOOPS CONTINUE TO SHOW BETTER CLOUDS AND HEAVIER PRECIP
MOSTLY EAST OF THE CWFA GENERALLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST EAST OF
DESTIN. THIS CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FORM ALONG A WEAK BOUNDARY NEAR
THE IMMEDIATE COAST ENHANCED BY BETTER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE
LOWER LEVELS DUE TO A WEAK SEABREEZE CIRCULATION WHICH HAS DEVELOPED
DURING THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. FURTHER TO THE WEST LATEST MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...THOUGH STRONGLY CAPPED AT AROUND 10K FEET. FURTHER ALOFT
BETTER INSTABILITY AND LAPSE RATES WERE OBSERVED COMPARED TO THE LAST
COUPLE OF DAYS WITH INCREASING DRY AIR ALOFT SUGGESTING A FEW STRONG
STORMS ARE STILL NOT OUT THE QUESTION THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH THE DRY
AIR ADVECTION ALOFT...GENERALLY FROM THE NORTHWEST...WILL LIKELY
OVERCOME THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING...ESPECIALLY INLAND GENERALLY NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR.
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR ALSO LATER TONIGHT GENERALLY FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH WITH PARTY CLOUDY CONDITIONS CONTINUING ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST. FOR SUNDAY MODEL SOUNDING SUGGEST ENOUGH DRY AIR ADVECTS SOUTH
TO THE COAST LIMITING THE CHANCE FOR ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP FOR ALL
AREAS IN THE CWFA THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WITH THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LOWER HALF OF
THE CWFA DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN CONCERN
THOUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO BE HIGHER HEAT INDEX VALUES
COMPARED TO EARLIER IN THE WEEK WITH VALUES RUNNING BETWEEN 100 TO
106 DEGREES. WITH BETTER SUNSHINE EXPECTED COMBINED WITH THE HIGHER
HUMIDITY LEVELS CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FEEL VERY MUGGY THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AS FOR TEMPS WILL USE A BLEND OF THE CURRENT MAV
AND 00Z ECMWF GUIDANCE THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
RANGE MOSTLY IN THE MID 70S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE UPPER 70S
TO NEAR 80 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. HIGH TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID TO UPPER 90S FOR INLAND AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF THE I-10
CORRIDOR AND THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S CLOSER TO THE COAST. 32/EE

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK REMAINS MODERATE.

A VERY MILD AND MUGGY NIGHT IS EXPECTED AGAIN ON SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE IN EARNEST ON MONDAY
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY OVER THE EASTERN
STATES...ERODING THE INFLUENCE OF UPPER RIDGING LOCATED TO OUR WEST.
THIS AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN
FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE FRONT PUSHING OFFSHORE BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT IT WILL BECOME
VERY UNSTABLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH MLCAPES INCREASING TO 3500-4000
J/KG...WHICH COMBINED WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...INDICATING
THAT SOME STRONG STORMS ARE LIKELY WITH AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM
POSSIBLE. THE STRONG STORMS WILL PRODUCE FREQUENT TO NEAR CONTINUOUS
LIGHTNING STRIKES...GUSTY WINDS...AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS. THE
GREATEST THREAT FROM ANY SEVERE STORM WILL BE LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS. POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
LIMIT THE POTENTIAL OF A MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER EVENT.

DRIER AIR WILL QUICKLY ADVECT IN FROM THE NORTH...CONFINING MONDAY
EVENING STORM CHANCES TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...WITH ALL
LAND AREAS LIKELY BEING DRY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

MONDAY HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S. HOWEVER...DEWPOINTS
WILL STAY IN THE MID TO POTENTIALLY UPPER 70S AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. THIS WILL PUT HEAT INDICES IN THE 103-106 DEGREE RANGE. THE
PASSING FRONT WILL DROP LOWS INTO THE UPPER 60S ALONG AND NORTH OF
HWY 84...WITH LOW TO MID 70S STILL EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTHERN ZONES.
34/JFB

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...MUCH DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE
TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE
OF THE COLD FRONT WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS DROPPING TO AN
UNSEASONABLY LOW 0.75-1.00 INCH. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR OR PERHAPS A
DEGREE OR TWO BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE BIG STORY
WILL BE WITH LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNINGS GIVEN
THE ABUNDANT DRY AIR IN PLACE. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE
LOW TO MID 60 BOTH MORNINGS...WHICH WILL BE CLOSE TO RECORD LEVELS.
IN FACT...A FEW UPPER 50S ARE EVEN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN
RURAL AREAS THURSDAY MORNING. WENT A FEW DEGREES BELOW MEX GUIDANCE
AS THIS EVENT SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO THE PAST 2 COLD FRONT EVENTS
THIS MONTH THAT BROUGHT RECORD LOWS TO MOBILE AND PENSACOLA. HERE ARE
THE RECORD LOWS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNINGS...

MOBILE REGIONAL AIRPORT:
JULY 30TH: 67/1968
JULY 31ST: 66/1984

PENSACOLA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT:
JULY 30TH: 67/1994
JULY 31ST: 67/1936

MOISTURE LEVELS GRADUALLY INCREASE BY THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND AS THE MEAN TROUGH AXIS BECOMES POSITIONED WEST OF THE AREA.
WILL MAINTAIN 20-30% RAIN CHANCES FOR FRI-SAT. 34/JFB

&&

.AVIATION (00Z ISSUANCE)...VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 28.00Z.
LOW CIGS MAINLY IN AND AROUND ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PD. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE LESS THIS AFTERNOON AND ON SUNDAY COMPARED TO THE LAST COUPLE OF
DAYS. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT 6 TO 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY THIS EVENING DIMINISHING TO 2 TO 4 KNOTS LATE THIS EVENING
CONTINUING THROUGH MID MORNING ON SUNDAY...THEN INCREASING TO 8 TO 12
KNOTS FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. 32/EE

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL GULF THROUGH EARLY MON THEN WEAKEN AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE AND WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST.
WITH THIS PATTERN A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED
OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH THE SUN NIGHT FOLLOWED BY INCREASING
WINDS AND SEAS MON AND MON NIGHT AHEAD OF THE WEAK FRONT. BY LATE
MON AFTERNOON INTO MON EVENING SMALL CRAFT WILL LIKELY HAVE TO
EXERCISE CAUTION WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 20 KNOTS.
SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD AHEAD OF THE FRONT INCREASING TO AROUND 4 FT
LATE MON AND MON NIGHT. NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT BY TUES DIMINISHINGS QUICKLY DURING THE DAY AS STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTH AND WEST. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      75  92  76  93  72 /  20  20  10  50  40
PENSACOLA   78  90  78  93  74 /  20  20  10  50  40
DESTIN      77  86  80  91  77 /  20  20  10  50  40
EVERGREEN   73  96  74  94  68 /  20  10  10  50  20
WAYNESBORO  73  95  74  93  67 /  05  10  10  50  20
CAMDEN      73  98  74  93  66 /  05  10  10  50  20
CRESTVIEW   73  95  74  94  71 /  20  20  10  50  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$












000
FXUS64 KMOB 262104
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
404 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...LATEST RADAR AND
SATELLITE LOOPS CONTINUE TO SHOW BETTER CLOUDS AND HEAVIER PRECIP
MOSTLY EAST OF THE CWFA GENERALLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST EAST OF
DESTIN. THIS CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FORM ALONG A WEAK BOUNDARY NEAR
THE IMMEDIATE COAST ENHANCED BY BETTER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE
LOWER LEVELS DUE TO A WEAK SEABREEZE CIRCULATION WHICH HAS DEVELOPED
DURING THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. FURTHER TO THE WEST LATEST MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...THOUGH STRONGLY CAPPED AT AROUND 10K FEET. FURTHER ALOFT
BETTER INSTABILITY AND LAPSE RATES WERE OBSERVED COMPARED TO THE LAST
COUPLE OF DAYS WITH INCREASING DRY AIR ALOFT SUGGESTING A FEW STRONG
STORMS ARE STILL NOT OUT THE QUESTION THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH THE DRY
AIR ADVECTION ALOFT...GENERALLY FROM THE NORTHWEST...WILL LIKELY
OVERCOME THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING...ESPECIALLY INLAND GENERALLY NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR.
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR ALSO LATER TONIGHT GENERALLY FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH WITH PARTY CLOUDY CONDITIONS CONTINUING ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST. FOR SUNDAY MODEL SOUNDING SUGGEST ENOUGH DRY AIR ADVECTS SOUTH
TO THE COAST LIMITING THE CHANCE FOR ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP FOR ALL
AREAS IN THE CWFA THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WITH THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LOWER HALF OF
THE CWFA DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN CONCERN
THOUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO BE HIGHER HEAT INDEX VALUES
COMPARED TO EARLIER IN THE WEEK WITH VALUES RUNNING BETWEEN 100 TO
106 DEGREES. WITH BETTER SUNSHINE EXPECTED COMBINED WITH THE HIGHER
HUMIDITY LEVELS CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FEEL VERY MUGGY THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AS FOR TEMPS WILL USE A BLEND OF THE CURRENT MAV
AND 00Z ECMWF GUIDANCE THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
RANGE MOSTLY IN THE MID 70S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE UPPER 70S
TO NEAR 80 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. HIGH TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID TO UPPER 90S FOR INLAND AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF THE I-10
CORRIDOR AND THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S CLOSER TO THE COAST. 32/EE

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK REMAINS MODERATE.

A VERY MILD AND MUGGY NIGHT IS EXPECTED AGAIN ON SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE IN EARNEST ON MONDAY
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY OVER THE EASTERN
STATES...ERODING THE INFLUENCE OF UPPER RIDGING LOCATED TO OUR WEST.
THIS AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN
FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE FRONT PUSHING OFFSHORE BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT IT WILL BECOME
VERY UNSTABLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH MLCAPES INCREASING TO 3500-4000
J/KG...WHICH COMBINED WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...INDICATING
THAT SOME STRONG STORMS ARE LIKELY WITH AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM
POSSIBLE. THE STRONG STORMS WILL PRODUCE FREQUENT TO NEAR CONTINUOUS
LIGHTNING STRIKES...GUSTY WINDS...AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS. THE
GREATEST THREAT FROM ANY SEVERE STORM WILL BE LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS. POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
LIMIT THE POTENTIAL OF A MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER EVENT.

DRIER AIR WILL QUICKLY ADVECT IN FROM THE NORTH...CONFINING MONDAY
EVENING STORM CHANCES TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...WITH ALL
LAND AREAS LIKELY BEING DRY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

MONDAY HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S. HOWEVER...DEWPOINTS
WILL STAY IN THE MID TO POTENTIALLY UPPER 70S AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. THIS WILL PUT HEAT INDICES IN THE 103-106 DEGREE RANGE. THE
PASSING FRONT WILL DROP LOWS INTO THE UPPER 60S ALONG AND NORTH OF
HWY 84...WITH LOW TO MID 70S STILL EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTHERN ZONES.
34/JFB

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...MUCH DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE
TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE
OF THE COLD FRONT WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS DROPPING TO AN
UNSEASONABLY LOW 0.75-1.00 INCH. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR OR PERHAPS A
DEGREE OR TWO BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE BIG STORY
WILL BE WITH LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNINGS GIVEN
THE ABUNDANT DRY AIR IN PLACE. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE
LOW TO MID 60 BOTH MORNINGS...WHICH WILL BE CLOSE TO RECORD LEVELS.
IN FACT...A FEW UPPER 50S ARE EVEN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN
RURAL AREAS THURSDAY MORNING. WENT A FEW DEGREES BELOW MEX GUIDANCE
AS THIS EVENT SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO THE PAST 2 COLD FRONT EVENTS
THIS MONTH THAT BROUGHT RECORD LOWS TO MOBILE AND PENSACOLA. HERE ARE
THE RECORD LOWS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNINGS...

MOBILE REGIONAL AIRPORT:
JULY 30TH: 67/1968
JULY 31ST: 66/1984

PENSACOLA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT:
JULY 30TH: 67/1994
JULY 31ST: 67/1936

MOISTURE LEVELS GRADUALLY INCREASE BY THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND AS THE MEAN TROUGH AXIS BECOMES POSITIONED WEST OF THE AREA.
WILL MAINTAIN 20-30% RAIN CHANCES FOR FRI-SAT. 34/JFB

&&

.AVIATION (00Z ISSUANCE)...VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 28.00Z.
LOW CIGS MAINLY IN AND AROUND ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PD. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE LESS THIS AFTERNOON AND ON SUNDAY COMPARED TO THE LAST COUPLE OF
DAYS. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT 6 TO 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY THIS EVENING DIMINISHING TO 2 TO 4 KNOTS LATE THIS EVENING
CONTINUING THROUGH MID MORNING ON SUNDAY...THEN INCREASING TO 8 TO 12
KNOTS FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. 32/EE

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL GULF THROUGH EARLY MON THEN WEAKEN AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE AND WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST.
WITH THIS PATTERN A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED
OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH THE SUN NIGHT FOLLOWED BY INCREASING
WINDS AND SEAS MON AND MON NIGHT AHEAD OF THE WEAK FRONT. BY LATE
MON AFTERNOON INTO MON EVENING SMALL CRAFT WILL LIKELY HAVE TO
EXERCISE CAUTION WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 20 KNOTS.
SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD AHEAD OF THE FRONT INCREASING TO AROUND 4 FT
LATE MON AND MON NIGHT. NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT BY THE TUES DIMINISHINGS QUICKLY DURING THE DAY ON TUES AS
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTH AND WEST. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      75  92  76  93  72 /  20  20  10  50  40
PENSACOLA   78  90  78  93  74 /  20  20  10  50  40
DESTIN      77  86  80  91  77 /  20  20  10  50  40
EVERGREEN   73  96  74  94  68 /  20  10  10  50  20
WAYNESBORO  73  95  74  93  67 /  05  10  10  50  20
CAMDEN      73  98  74  93  66 /  05  10  10  50  20
CRESTVIEW   73  95  74  94  71 /  20  20  10  50  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMOB 262104
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
404 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...LATEST RADAR AND
SATELLITE LOOPS CONTINUE TO SHOW BETTER CLOUDS AND HEAVIER PRECIP
MOSTLY EAST OF THE CWFA GENERALLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST EAST OF
DESTIN. THIS CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FORM ALONG A WEAK BOUNDARY NEAR
THE IMMEDIATE COAST ENHANCED BY BETTER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE
LOWER LEVELS DUE TO A WEAK SEABREEZE CIRCULATION WHICH HAS DEVELOPED
DURING THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. FURTHER TO THE WEST LATEST MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...THOUGH STRONGLY CAPPED AT AROUND 10K FEET. FURTHER ALOFT
BETTER INSTABILITY AND LAPSE RATES WERE OBSERVED COMPARED TO THE LAST
COUPLE OF DAYS WITH INCREASING DRY AIR ALOFT SUGGESTING A FEW STRONG
STORMS ARE STILL NOT OUT THE QUESTION THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH THE DRY
AIR ADVECTION ALOFT...GENERALLY FROM THE NORTHWEST...WILL LIKELY
OVERCOME THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING...ESPECIALLY INLAND GENERALLY NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR.
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR ALSO LATER TONIGHT GENERALLY FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH WITH PARTY CLOUDY CONDITIONS CONTINUING ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST. FOR SUNDAY MODEL SOUNDING SUGGEST ENOUGH DRY AIR ADVECTS SOUTH
TO THE COAST LIMITING THE CHANCE FOR ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP FOR ALL
AREAS IN THE CWFA THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WITH THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LOWER HALF OF
THE CWFA DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN CONCERN
THOUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO BE HIGHER HEAT INDEX VALUES
COMPARED TO EARLIER IN THE WEEK WITH VALUES RUNNING BETWEEN 100 TO
106 DEGREES. WITH BETTER SUNSHINE EXPECTED COMBINED WITH THE HIGHER
HUMIDITY LEVELS CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FEEL VERY MUGGY THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AS FOR TEMPS WILL USE A BLEND OF THE CURRENT MAV
AND 00Z ECMWF GUIDANCE THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
RANGE MOSTLY IN THE MID 70S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE UPPER 70S
TO NEAR 80 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. HIGH TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID TO UPPER 90S FOR INLAND AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF THE I-10
CORRIDOR AND THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S CLOSER TO THE COAST. 32/EE

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK REMAINS MODERATE.

A VERY MILD AND MUGGY NIGHT IS EXPECTED AGAIN ON SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE IN EARNEST ON MONDAY
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY OVER THE EASTERN
STATES...ERODING THE INFLUENCE OF UPPER RIDGING LOCATED TO OUR WEST.
THIS AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN
FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE FRONT PUSHING OFFSHORE BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT IT WILL BECOME
VERY UNSTABLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH MLCAPES INCREASING TO 3500-4000
J/KG...WHICH COMBINED WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...INDICATING
THAT SOME STRONG STORMS ARE LIKELY WITH AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM
POSSIBLE. THE STRONG STORMS WILL PRODUCE FREQUENT TO NEAR CONTINUOUS
LIGHTNING STRIKES...GUSTY WINDS...AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS. THE
GREATEST THREAT FROM ANY SEVERE STORM WILL BE LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS. POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
LIMIT THE POTENTIAL OF A MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER EVENT.

DRIER AIR WILL QUICKLY ADVECT IN FROM THE NORTH...CONFINING MONDAY
EVENING STORM CHANCES TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...WITH ALL
LAND AREAS LIKELY BEING DRY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

MONDAY HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S. HOWEVER...DEWPOINTS
WILL STAY IN THE MID TO POTENTIALLY UPPER 70S AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. THIS WILL PUT HEAT INDICES IN THE 103-106 DEGREE RANGE. THE
PASSING FRONT WILL DROP LOWS INTO THE UPPER 60S ALONG AND NORTH OF
HWY 84...WITH LOW TO MID 70S STILL EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTHERN ZONES.
34/JFB

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...MUCH DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE
TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE
OF THE COLD FRONT WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS DROPPING TO AN
UNSEASONABLY LOW 0.75-1.00 INCH. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR OR PERHAPS A
DEGREE OR TWO BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE BIG STORY
WILL BE WITH LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNINGS GIVEN
THE ABUNDANT DRY AIR IN PLACE. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE
LOW TO MID 60 BOTH MORNINGS...WHICH WILL BE CLOSE TO RECORD LEVELS.
IN FACT...A FEW UPPER 50S ARE EVEN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN
RURAL AREAS THURSDAY MORNING. WENT A FEW DEGREES BELOW MEX GUIDANCE
AS THIS EVENT SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO THE PAST 2 COLD FRONT EVENTS
THIS MONTH THAT BROUGHT RECORD LOWS TO MOBILE AND PENSACOLA. HERE ARE
THE RECORD LOWS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNINGS...

MOBILE REGIONAL AIRPORT:
JULY 30TH: 67/1968
JULY 31ST: 66/1984

PENSACOLA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT:
JULY 30TH: 67/1994
JULY 31ST: 67/1936

MOISTURE LEVELS GRADUALLY INCREASE BY THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND AS THE MEAN TROUGH AXIS BECOMES POSITIONED WEST OF THE AREA.
WILL MAINTAIN 20-30% RAIN CHANCES FOR FRI-SAT. 34/JFB

&&

.AVIATION (00Z ISSUANCE)...VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 28.00Z.
LOW CIGS MAINLY IN AND AROUND ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PD. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE LESS THIS AFTERNOON AND ON SUNDAY COMPARED TO THE LAST COUPLE OF
DAYS. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT 6 TO 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY THIS EVENING DIMINISHING TO 2 TO 4 KNOTS LATE THIS EVENING
CONTINUING THROUGH MID MORNING ON SUNDAY...THEN INCREASING TO 8 TO 12
KNOTS FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. 32/EE

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL GULF THROUGH EARLY MON THEN WEAKEN AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE AND WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST.
WITH THIS PATTERN A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED
OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH THE SUN NIGHT FOLLOWED BY INCREASING
WINDS AND SEAS MON AND MON NIGHT AHEAD OF THE WEAK FRONT. BY LATE
MON AFTERNOON INTO MON EVENING SMALL CRAFT WILL LIKELY HAVE TO
EXERCISE CAUTION WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 20 KNOTS.
SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD AHEAD OF THE FRONT INCREASING TO AROUND 4 FT
LATE MON AND MON NIGHT. NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT BY THE TUES DIMINISHINGS QUICKLY DURING THE DAY ON TUES AS
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTH AND WEST. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      75  92  76  93  72 /  20  20  10  50  40
PENSACOLA   78  90  78  93  74 /  20  20  10  50  40
DESTIN      77  86  80  91  77 /  20  20  10  50  40
EVERGREEN   73  96  74  94  68 /  20  10  10  50  20
WAYNESBORO  73  95  74  93  67 /  05  10  10  50  20
CAMDEN      73  98  74  93  66 /  05  10  10  50  20
CRESTVIEW   73  95  74  94  71 /  20  20  10  50  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KMOB 261919 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
214 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.AVIATION...[26.16Z ISSUANCE]...VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
27.18Z. LOW CIGS MAINLY IN AND AROUND ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE FORECAST PD. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LESS THIS AFTERNOON AND ON SUNDAY COMPARED TO
THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT 6 TO 10
KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING DIMINISHING TO 2 TO 4
LATE THIS EVENING CONTINUING THROUGH MID MORNING ON SUNDAY...THEN
INCREASING TO 8 TO 12 KNOTS FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. 32/EE

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL EXPAND EASTWARD TODAY LEADING TO BUILDING UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS ACROSS THE AREA. MEANWHILE...A WEAK SFC TROUGH/FRONT AND
MID/UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
ZONES. GUIDANCE POPS CAME IN GENERALLY 10% OR LESS FOR TODAY.
HOWEVER...BASED ON THE PRESENCE OF THE SFC TROUGH AND MID LEVEL
SHEAR AXIS...HAVE GONE ABOVE GUIDANCE MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FEATURES AND
THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE WILL BE ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN A VERY MOIST AIRMASS WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ABOVE 2 INCHES. THE RIDGE WILL HAVE A GREATER INFLUENCE
ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES WHERE RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LESS
THAN 10% THIS AFTERNOON. DUE TO THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE...TEMPS
WILL ALSO BE WARMER IN THESE AREAS WITH SOME MID 90S POSSIBLE.
SOUTHERN AREAS WILL AGAIN SEE HIGHS TOP OUT IN THE LOW 90S. RAIN
CHANCES RAPIDLY END THIS EVENING WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S IN
MOST AREAS. COASTAL ZONES WILL SEE LOW IN THE UPPER 70S. /13

(SUNDAY AND MONDAY)...UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO POKE INTO THE REGION
FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY...WHILE LINGERING SFC BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND BECOME LESS OF A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION. WITH
THE UPPER RIDGING...EXPECT LESS CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA ON
SUNDAY WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER SOUTHERN
HALF OF FCST AREA WHERE OLD SFC BOUNDARY AND SEA BREEZE INTERACTIONS
WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON STORMS. WITH CONTINUED UPPER
RIDGING DAYTIME HIGH TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE IN THE MIDDLE 90S INTERIOR
LOCATIONS AND LOWER 90S COASTAL. SUNDAY NIGHT SLIGHT CHANCE OF
EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS...WITH OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S (WITH WARMEST TEMPS NEAR THE COAST). ON MONDAY THE UPPER
RIDGE WEAKENS AND SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FCST AREA AS A
DEEPENING UPPER TROF BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY.
THE DEEPENING MID/UPPER TROF WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE FCST
AREA FROM THE NORTH BY LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY AND ACROSS THE REGION
AND INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA...AND A 40 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN IS EXPECTED ON
MONDAY. RAINS ENDING MOST LOCATIONS MONDAY NIGHT...EXCEPT FOR ALONG
COASTAL COUNTIES AS THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE LOW
TO MID 90S AND LOWS MONDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S OVER
NORTHERN COUNTIES WELL BEHIND THE FRONT...LOWER 70S OVER REMAINDER OF
THE FCST AREA (EXCEPT MIDDLE 70S ALONG THE COAST). 12/DS

&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS MOVES
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...AND PERSISTS
FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. PRIMARILY A TEMPERATURE
FCST WITH LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL EXPECTED. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE LOWER
90S MOST LOCATIONS WITH SOME MIDDLE 90S SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES...THEN
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 90S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD (MAYBE
EVEN SOME UPPER 80S ON WEDNESDAY). OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS WILL ARE
AGAIN EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 8-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF THE YEAR (MAKING THIS THE THIRD ABNORMALLY COOL SPELL DURING THE
MONTH OF JULY). LOWS EACH NIGHT THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOK TO
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S INTERIOR TO MID 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST AND
UPPER 60S OR AROUND 70S AT THE BEACHES. 12/DS

&&

.AVIATION (26.12Z ISSUANCE)...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH
OF THE PERIOD...EXCEPT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN SCT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN DEVELOP. OCCASIONAL IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND TSRA BETWEEN 18Z-00Z. /13

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL GULF THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK THEN WEAKEN AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW CAN BE
EXPECTED OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE INCREASING
AHEAD OF THE FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK. NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. /13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      92  75  93  76  93 /  30  20  20  10  40
PENSACOLA   90  79  92  78  93 /  30  20  20  10  50
DESTIN      87  78  89  80  90 /  30  20  20  10  40
EVERGREEN   94  73  96  74  95 /  20  10  10  10  50
WAYNESBORO  94  73  96  73  94 /  10  10  10  10  40
CAMDEN      94  73  97  74  95 /  10  10  10  10  50
CRESTVIEW   94  73  95  74  95 /  30  20  20  10  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$












000
FXUS64 KMOB 261919 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
214 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.AVIATION...[26.16Z ISSUANCE]...VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
27.18Z. LOW CIGS MAINLY IN AND AROUND ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE FORECAST PD. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LESS THIS AFTERNOON AND ON SUNDAY COMPARED TO
THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT 6 TO 10
KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING DIMINISHING TO 2 TO 4
LATE THIS EVENING CONTINUING THROUGH MID MORNING ON SUNDAY...THEN
INCREASING TO 8 TO 12 KNOTS FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. 32/EE

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL EXPAND EASTWARD TODAY LEADING TO BUILDING UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS ACROSS THE AREA. MEANWHILE...A WEAK SFC TROUGH/FRONT AND
MID/UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
ZONES. GUIDANCE POPS CAME IN GENERALLY 10% OR LESS FOR TODAY.
HOWEVER...BASED ON THE PRESENCE OF THE SFC TROUGH AND MID LEVEL
SHEAR AXIS...HAVE GONE ABOVE GUIDANCE MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FEATURES AND
THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE WILL BE ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN A VERY MOIST AIRMASS WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ABOVE 2 INCHES. THE RIDGE WILL HAVE A GREATER INFLUENCE
ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES WHERE RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LESS
THAN 10% THIS AFTERNOON. DUE TO THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE...TEMPS
WILL ALSO BE WARMER IN THESE AREAS WITH SOME MID 90S POSSIBLE.
SOUTHERN AREAS WILL AGAIN SEE HIGHS TOP OUT IN THE LOW 90S. RAIN
CHANCES RAPIDLY END THIS EVENING WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S IN
MOST AREAS. COASTAL ZONES WILL SEE LOW IN THE UPPER 70S. /13

(SUNDAY AND MONDAY)...UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO POKE INTO THE REGION
FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY...WHILE LINGERING SFC BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND BECOME LESS OF A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION. WITH
THE UPPER RIDGING...EXPECT LESS CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA ON
SUNDAY WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER SOUTHERN
HALF OF FCST AREA WHERE OLD SFC BOUNDARY AND SEA BREEZE INTERACTIONS
WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON STORMS. WITH CONTINUED UPPER
RIDGING DAYTIME HIGH TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE IN THE MIDDLE 90S INTERIOR
LOCATIONS AND LOWER 90S COASTAL. SUNDAY NIGHT SLIGHT CHANCE OF
EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS...WITH OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S (WITH WARMEST TEMPS NEAR THE COAST). ON MONDAY THE UPPER
RIDGE WEAKENS AND SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FCST AREA AS A
DEEPENING UPPER TROF BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY.
THE DEEPENING MID/UPPER TROF WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE FCST
AREA FROM THE NORTH BY LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY AND ACROSS THE REGION
AND INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA...AND A 40 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN IS EXPECTED ON
MONDAY. RAINS ENDING MOST LOCATIONS MONDAY NIGHT...EXCEPT FOR ALONG
COASTAL COUNTIES AS THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE LOW
TO MID 90S AND LOWS MONDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S OVER
NORTHERN COUNTIES WELL BEHIND THE FRONT...LOWER 70S OVER REMAINDER OF
THE FCST AREA (EXCEPT MIDDLE 70S ALONG THE COAST). 12/DS

&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS MOVES
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...AND PERSISTS
FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. PRIMARILY A TEMPERATURE
FCST WITH LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL EXPECTED. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE LOWER
90S MOST LOCATIONS WITH SOME MIDDLE 90S SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES...THEN
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 90S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD (MAYBE
EVEN SOME UPPER 80S ON WEDNESDAY). OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS WILL ARE
AGAIN EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 8-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF THE YEAR (MAKING THIS THE THIRD ABNORMALLY COOL SPELL DURING THE
MONTH OF JULY). LOWS EACH NIGHT THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOK TO
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S INTERIOR TO MID 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST AND
UPPER 60S OR AROUND 70S AT THE BEACHES. 12/DS

&&

.AVIATION (26.12Z ISSUANCE)...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH
OF THE PERIOD...EXCEPT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN SCT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN DEVELOP. OCCASIONAL IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND TSRA BETWEEN 18Z-00Z. /13

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL GULF THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK THEN WEAKEN AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW CAN BE
EXPECTED OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE INCREASING
AHEAD OF THE FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK. NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. /13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      92  75  93  76  93 /  30  20  20  10  40
PENSACOLA   90  79  92  78  93 /  30  20  20  10  50
DESTIN      87  78  89  80  90 /  30  20  20  10  40
EVERGREEN   94  73  96  74  95 /  20  10  10  10  50
WAYNESBORO  94  73  96  73  94 /  10  10  10  10  40
CAMDEN      94  73  97  74  95 /  10  10  10  10  50
CRESTVIEW   94  73  95  74  95 /  30  20  20  10  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$













000
FXUS64 KMOB 261020
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
520 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL EXPAND EASTWARD TODAY LEADING TO BUILDING UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS ACROSS THE AREA. MEANWHILE...A WEAK SFC TROUGH/FRONT AND
MID/UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
ZONES. GUIDANCE POPS CAME IN GENERALLY 10% OR LESS FOR TODAY.
HOWEVER...BASED ON THE PRESENCE OF THE SFC TROUGH AND MID LEVEL
SHEAR AXIS...HAVE GONE ABOVE GUIDANCE MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FEATURES AND
THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE WILL BE ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN A VERY MOIST AIRMASS WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ABOVE 2 INCHES. THE RIDGE WILL HAVE A GREATER INFLUENCE
ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES WHERE RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LESS
THAN 10% THIS AFTERNOON. DUE TO THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE...TEMPS
WILL ALSO BE WARMER IN THESE AREAS WITH SOME MID 90S POSSIBLE.
SOUTHERN AREAS WILL AGAIN SEE HIGHS TOP OUT IN THE LOW 90S. RAIN
CHANCES RAPIDLY END THIS EVENING WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S IN
MOST AREAS. COASTAL ZONES WILL SEE LOW IN THE UPPER 70S. /13

(SUNDAY AND MONDAY)...UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO POKE INTO THE REGION
FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY...WHILE LINGERING SFC BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND BECOME LESS OF A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION. WITH
THE UPPER RIDGING...EXPECT LESS CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA ON
SUNDAY WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER SOUTHERN
HALF OF FCST AREA WHERE OLD SFC BOUNDARY AND SEA BREEZE INTERACTIONS
WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON STORMS. WITH CONTINUED UPPER
RIDGING DAYTIME HIGH TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE IN THE MIDDLE 90S INTERIOR
LOCATIONS AND LOWER 90S COASTAL. SUNDAY NIGHT SLIGHT CHANCE OF
EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS...WITH OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S (WITH WARMEST TEMPS NEAR THE COAST). ON MONDAY THE UPPER
RIDGE WEAKENS AND SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FCST AREA AS A
DEEPENING UPPER TROF BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY.
THE DEEPENING MID/UPPER TROF WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE FCST
AREA FROM THE NORTH BY LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY AND ACROSS THE REGION
AND INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA...AND A 40 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN IS EXPECTED ON
MONDAY. RAINS ENDING MOST LOCATIONS MONDAY NIGHT...EXCEPT FOR ALONG
COASTAL COUNTIES AS THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE LOW
TO MID 90S AND LOWS MONDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S OVER
NORTHERN COUNTIES WELL BEHIND THE FRONT...LOWER 70S OVER REMAINDER OF
THE FCST AREA (EXCEPT MIDDLE 70S ALONG THE COAST). 12/DS

&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS MOVES
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...AND PERSISTS
FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. PRIMARILY A TEMPERATURE
FCST WITH LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL EXPECTED. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE LOWER
90S MOST LOCATIONS WITH SOME MIDDLE 90S SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES...THEN
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 90S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD (MAYBE
EVEN SOME UPPER 80S ON WEDNESDAY). OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS WILL ARE
AGAIN EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 8-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF THE YEAR (MAKING THIS THE THIRD ABNORMALLY COOL SPELL DURING THE
MONTH OF JULY). LOWS EACH NIGHT THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOK TO
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S INTERIOR TO MID 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST AND
UPPER 60S OR AROUND 70S AT THE BEACHES. 12/DS

&&

.AVIATION (26.12Z ISSUANCE)...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH
OF THE PERIOD...EXCEPT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN SCT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN DEVELOP. OCCASIONAL IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND TSRA BETWEEN 18Z-00Z. /13

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL GULF THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK THEN WEAKEN AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW CAN BE
EXPECTED OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE INCREASING
AHEAD OF THE FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK. NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. /13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      92  75  93  76  93 /  30  20  20  10  40
PENSACOLA   90  79  92  78  93 /  30  20  20  10  50
DESTIN      87  78  89  80  90 /  30  20  20  10  40
EVERGREEN   94  73  96  74  95 /  20  10  10  10  50
WAYNESBORO  94  73  96  73  94 /  10  10  10  10  40
CAMDEN      94  73  97  74  95 /  10  10  10  10  50
CRESTVIEW   94  73  95  74  95 /  30  20  20  10  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KMOB 260427 AAC
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1126 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.AVIATION [26.06Z TAF ISSUANCE]...ONLY A FEW SHRA/TSRA REMAIN FROM
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING CONVECTION AND THESE HAVE DROPPED SOUTH
INTO THE MARINE AREA. RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER IS FORECAST AT MID TO
HIGH LEVELS OVERNIGHT. MORE SCATTERED TSRA POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY.
LIGHT WIND TONIGHT WITH A PREVAILING SOUTHWEST WIND OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS
FORECAST DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. /10

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 942 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014/

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...WEATHER MAPS THIS EVENING SHOWS A STALLED
SURFACE FRONT FROM OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS TO ACROSS SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI...THEN DRAPED BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT OVER ARKANSAS
AND MISSOURI. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...THERE ARE POCKETS OF COLD CLOUD
TOPS=>SHOWERS/STORMS NOW MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE COASTAL ZONES. THIS
WEATHER IS OCCURRING WITHIN A MID LEVEL SHEAR ZONE EXTENDING FROM THE
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERN LOUISIANA WHERE HIGH LEVEL TROF AXIS EXTENDS
FROM THE APPALACHIANS TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. A WEAKNESS IN THE
FLOW EXTENDS FURTHER WEST OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE IS QUITE PLENTIFUL ACROSS THE GULF COAST WITH LATEST 26.00Z
SOUNDINGS SHOWING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES.

ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS ARE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
EVENING...HIGHLIGHTED SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL ZONE FROM THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...AND POINTS EAST TO THE
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THIS MATCHES WHAT FORECASTERS SEE IN THE
LATEST RADAR DATA/TRENDS. STORMS HAVE BEEN BEHAVED THIS EVENING AS
THEY DROP SLOWLY SOUTHWARD WITH THE STRONGER WIND GUSTS RANGING FROM
18 TO 28 KNOTS. A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS THIS
EVENING GIVEN LATEST OBSERVATIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN
UNCHANGED. /10

TONIGHT`S LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR MOST
AREAS NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND THE MID TO UPPER 70S CLOSER TO
THE COAST. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      74  91  75  92  76 /  20  30  20  20  10
PENSACOLA   76  91  78  92  78 /  20  30  20  20  10
DESTIN      78  87  79  90  79 /  20  30  20  20  10
EVERGREEN   71  93  73  95  75 /  20  30  10  10  10
WAYNESBORO  69  94  73  95  73 /  10  10  10  10  10
CAMDEN      70  93  73  95  75 /  10  20  10  10  10
CRESTVIEW   73  94  73  95  75 /  20  40  20  10  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$












000
FXUS64 KMOB 260427 AAC
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1126 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.AVIATION [26.06Z TAF ISSUANCE]...ONLY A FEW SHRA/TSRA REMAIN FROM
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING CONVECTION AND THESE HAVE DROPPED SOUTH
INTO THE MARINE AREA. RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER IS FORECAST AT MID TO
HIGH LEVELS OVERNIGHT. MORE SCATTERED TSRA POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY.
LIGHT WIND TONIGHT WITH A PREVAILING SOUTHWEST WIND OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS
FORECAST DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. /10

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 942 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014/

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...WEATHER MAPS THIS EVENING SHOWS A STALLED
SURFACE FRONT FROM OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS TO ACROSS SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI...THEN DRAPED BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT OVER ARKANSAS
AND MISSOURI. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...THERE ARE POCKETS OF COLD CLOUD
TOPS=>SHOWERS/STORMS NOW MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE COASTAL ZONES. THIS
WEATHER IS OCCURRING WITHIN A MID LEVEL SHEAR ZONE EXTENDING FROM THE
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERN LOUISIANA WHERE HIGH LEVEL TROF AXIS EXTENDS
FROM THE APPALACHIANS TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. A WEAKNESS IN THE
FLOW EXTENDS FURTHER WEST OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE IS QUITE PLENTIFUL ACROSS THE GULF COAST WITH LATEST 26.00Z
SOUNDINGS SHOWING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES.

ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS ARE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
EVENING...HIGHLIGHTED SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL ZONE FROM THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...AND POINTS EAST TO THE
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THIS MATCHES WHAT FORECASTERS SEE IN THE
LATEST RADAR DATA/TRENDS. STORMS HAVE BEEN BEHAVED THIS EVENING AS
THEY DROP SLOWLY SOUTHWARD WITH THE STRONGER WIND GUSTS RANGING FROM
18 TO 28 KNOTS. A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS THIS
EVENING GIVEN LATEST OBSERVATIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN
UNCHANGED. /10

TONIGHT`S LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR MOST
AREAS NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND THE MID TO UPPER 70S CLOSER TO
THE COAST. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      74  91  75  92  76 /  20  30  20  20  10
PENSACOLA   76  91  78  92  78 /  20  30  20  20  10
DESTIN      78  87  79  90  79 /  20  30  20  20  10
EVERGREEN   71  93  73  95  75 /  20  30  10  10  10
WAYNESBORO  69  94  73  95  73 /  10  10  10  10  10
CAMDEN      70  93  73  95  75 /  10  20  10  10  10
CRESTVIEW   73  94  73  95  75 /  20  40  20  10  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$













000
FXUS64 KMOB 260242 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
942 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...WEATHER MAPS THIS EVENING SHOWS A STALLED
SURFACE FRONT FROM OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS TO ACROSS SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI...THEN DRAPED BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT OVER ARKANSAS
AND MISSOURI. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...THERE ARE POCKETS OF COLD CLOUD
TOPS=>SHOWERS/STORMS NOW MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE COASTAL ZONES. THIS
WEATHER IS OCCURRING WITHIN A MID LEVEL SHEAR ZONE EXTENDING FROM THE
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERN LOUISIANA WHERE HIGH LEVEL TROF AXIS EXTENDS
FROM THE APPALACHIANS TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. A WEAKNESS IN THE
FLOW EXTENDS FURTHER WEST OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE IS QUITE PLENTIFUL ACROSS THE GULF COAST WITH LATEST 26.00Z
SOUNDINGS SHOWING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES.

ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS ARE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
EVENING...HIGHLIGHTED SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL ZONE FROM THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...AND POINTS EAST TO THE
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THIS MATCHES WHAT FORECASTERS SEE IN THE
LATEST RADAR DATA/TRENDS. STORMS HAVE BEEN BEHAVED THIS EVENING AS
THEY DROP SLOWLY SOUTHWARD WITH THE STRONGER WIND GUSTS RANGING FROM
18 TO 28 KNOTS. A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS THIS
EVENING GIVEN LATEST OBSERVATIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN
UNCHANGED. /10

TONIGHT`S LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR MOST
AREAS NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND THE MID TO UPPER 70S CLOSER TO
THE COAST. 32/EE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 639 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014/

AVIATION [26.00Z TAF ISSUANCE]...RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA
GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF I-65 THIS EVENING. WILL MENTION TSRA
IN THE VCTY OF MOB/BFM GIVEN LATEST RADAR TRENDS WITH CONVECTION
TO THE NORTH AND CLOSEST TO THESE TERMINALS. FOR PNS...WEATHER WAS
MOVING EAST OF THE TERMINAL. CLOUDS ARE AT MULTIPLE LEVELS THIS
EVENING WITH A MIX OF MVFR CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH CB AND MID/HIGH CLOUDS.
AFTER 26.03Z...VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST. MORE SCATTERED TSRA POSSIBLE
ON SATURDAY. LIGHT WIND TONIGHT WITH A PREVAILING SOUTHWEST WIND OF 8
TO 13 KNOTS FORECAST DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. /10

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014/

FOR SATURDAY...EXPECT LESS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
THE MOST PART THOUGH WE WILL SEE NEW DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST EARLY SAT MORNING CONFINED MOSTLY ALONG A WEAK SEABREEZE
BOUNDARY MOVING INLAND DURING THE DAY. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED. AS FOR TEMPS WILL USE A BLEND OF THE 00Z
ECMWF MOS AND TODAYS FORECAST ISSUED EARLY THIS MORNING. CURRENT MAV
GUIDANCE LOOKS TO BE TO WARM AND INCONSISTENT WITH THE CURRENT
PATTERN OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION. SATURDAY`S HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S CLOSER TO THE COAST. 32/EE

SHORT TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...MODELS ARE RATHER
CLOSELY TIMED AS TO POSITIONS AND CHARACTER OF SURFACE AND UPPER AIR
FEATURES. SMALL PERTURBATIONS IN THE WESTERLIES ARE MOVING OUT OF A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS. AS THEY MOVE
DOWNSTREAM INTO A TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD...THEY WILL
ENABLE DEEPENING OF THIS TROUGH. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...A COLD FRONT
WILL HAVE DRIFTED SOUTHWARD AND BEGUN TO DISSIPATE BY SATURDAY NIGHT
AS THE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES SLIGHTLY EAST OVER THE WEEKEND AND THE
EFFECTS OF UPPER RIDGING OVER OUR AREA INCREASE SLIGHTLY FROM THE
WEST. THE DISSIPATING FRONT WILL BECOME EVEN LESS DEFINED...BUT STILL
HANGS ON THROUGH SUNDAY WHILE PUSHING OFFSHORE. SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH RIDGING ALOFT WILL SUPPRESS RAIN CHANCES A BIT OVER THE WEEKEND
AND AT THAT TIME WE EXPECT A RETURN TO A MORE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORM
WITH THE SEABREEZE AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES DRIVING VIRTUALLY
EVERYTHING. THAT SAID WE WILL HAVE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. IT SHOULD
ALSO BE NOTED THAT WITH THE UPPER RIDGING...AN INCREASING TREND IN
HIGH TEMPERATURE SHOULD BE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND...LOW TO MID 90S
FOR MOST LOCATIONS...NEAR 90 AT THE BEACHES. FOR OUR NORTHERN
REGION...THE MOS SUDDENLY WENT TO UPPER 90S AS OF 24.18Z RUN AND
CONTINUED FOR 25.00Z RUN. THE EURO MOS WAS SLIGHTLY COOLER..AND WITH
THE SUBSIDENCE EXPECTED TO INCREASE LAYER STABILITY...THAT WOULD SEEM
REASONABLE. HOWEVER NEITHER WE NOR THE NEIGHBORS ARE READY TO
INCREASE THE HIGHS FOR SUNDAY QUITE AS HIGH AS THE MAV GUIDANCE WANTS
IT...AND WE KEPT IT AROUND MID 90S ANTICIPATING ESTABLISHMENT OF WHAT
DIRECTION THIS TREND MAINTAINS. HEAT INDICES SHOULD STAY BETWEEN 100
AND 105 IN MOST CASES. SUNDAY AM LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S
OVER INTERIOR COUNTIES TO THE UPPER 70S COASTAL. 77/BD

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. MODELS
ARE PHASING CLOSELY AS TO POSITIONS OF FEATURES. EARLY NEXT WEEK THE
UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE UNITED STATES.
THIS ALLOWS A COLD FRONT TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...LIKELY PUSHING SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
AND OUT OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO BY WEDNESDAY. EXPECT AN INCREASED
CHANCE AGAIN FOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...THEN LOW TO NIL RAIN CHANCES MID TO LATE
WEEK BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. WILL STILL LIKELY BE LOOKING AT MID 90S
FOR DAYTIME HIGHS ON MONDAY FOR MOST LOCATIONS...BUT MAX TEMPS DROP
TO THE LOWER 90S AROUND MIDWEEK WITH WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION AND DRY
DEWPOINTS MOVING INTO OUR REGION BEHIND THE FRONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S MONDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...BUT
COOLING TO NEARLY 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...LOW TO MID 60S FOR SOME
INLAND LOCATIONS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT PER THE MEX
GUIDANCE. EURO MOS IS EVEN A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER STILL. 77/BD

MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL GULF THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK THEN WEAKEN THROUGH MIDWEEK AS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHWEST. A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED
OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK THEN BUILD THROUGH
MIDWEEK AS THE UPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. LITTLE
CHANGE IN SEAS IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND...GENERALLY 1 TO 2
FEET...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL INCREASE IN SEAS THROUGH
MIDWEEK...POSSIBLY INCREASING TO 3 TO 5 FEET TUES INTO EARLY WED DUE
TO A STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW. HIGHER WINDS AND WAVES CAN BE EXPECTED
NEAR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
FOLLOWED BY THE BETTER DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MIDWEEK.
32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      74  91  75  92  76 /  20  30  20  20  10
PENSACOLA   76  91  78  92  78 /  20  30  20  20  10
DESTIN      78  87  79  90  79 /  20  30  20  20  10
EVERGREEN   71  93  73  95  75 /  20  30  10  10  10
WAYNESBORO  69  94  73  95  73 /  10  10  10  10  10
CAMDEN      70  93  73  95  75 /  10  20  10  10  10
CRESTVIEW   73  94  73  95  75 /  20  40  20  10  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMOB 252339 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
639 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.AVIATION [26.00Z TAF ISSUANCE]...RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA
GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF I-65 THIS EVENING. WILL MENTION TSRA
IN THE VCTY OF MOB/BFM GIVEN LATEST RADAR TRENDS WITH CONVECTION
TO THE NORTH AND CLOSEST TO THESE TERMINALS. FOR PNS...WEATHER WAS
MOVING EAST OF THE TERMINAL. CLOUDS ARE AT MULTIPLE LEVELS THIS
EVENING WITH A MIX OF MVFR CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH CB AND MID/HIGH CLOUDS.
AFTER 26.03Z...VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST. MORE SCATTERED TSRA POSSIBLE
ON SATURDAY. LIGHT WIND TONIGHT WITH A PREVAILING SOUTHWEST WIND OF 8
TO 13 KNOTS FORECAST DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. /10

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014/

SHORT TERM...[TONIGHT]...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL PARTS
OF AL/MS MOVES SOUTHWARD INTO LOWER SECTIONS OF THE CWFA...THEN
BECOMING DIFFUSE NEAR THE COAST OF JUST OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. THIS
PATTERN LEAVES THE LOWER HALF OF THE CWFA UNDER THE GUN FOR MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING...REDEVELOPING ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST EARLY SAT MORNING. THE EVENING CONVECTION COULD ALSO
LINGER LATER THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS DUE TO THE POSITION OF
THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH TOWARDS THE COAST. A FEW
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THE
MAIN THREAT STILL BEING GUSTY STRAIGHT LINE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLY
REACHING 40 AND 50 MPH.

FOR SATURDAY...EXPECT LESS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
THE MOST PART THOUGH WE WILL SEE NEW DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST EARLY SAT MORNING CONFINED MOSTLY ALONG A WEAK SEABREEZE
BOUNDARY MOVING INLAND DURING THE DAY. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED. AS FOR TEMPS WILL USE A BLEND OF THE 00Z
ECMWF MOS AND TODAYS FORECAST ISSUED EARLY THIS MORNING. CURRENT MAV
GUIDANCE LOOKS TO BE TO WARM AND INCONSISTENT WITH THE CURRENT
PATTERN OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION. TONIGHT`S LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR MOST AREAS NORTH OF THE I-10
CORRIDOR AND THE MID TO UPPER 70S CLOSER TO THE COAST. SATURDAY`S
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS
AND THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S CLOSER TO THE COAST. 32/EE

WET MICROBURST RISK REMAINS MODERATE.

SHORT TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...MODELS ARE
RATHER CLOSELY TIMED AS TO POSITIONS AND CHARACTER OF SURFACE AND
UPPER AIR FEATURES. SMALL PERTURBATIONS IN THE WESTERLIES ARE MOVING
OUT OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS. AS
THEY MOVE DOWNSTREAM INTO A TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD...THEY
WILL ENABLE DEEPENING OF THIS TROUGH. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...A COLD
FRONT WILL HAVE DRIFTED SOUTHWARD AND BEGUN TO DISSIPATE BY SATURDAY
NIGHT AS THE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES SLIGHTLY EAST OVER THE WEEKEND AND
THE EFFECTS OF UPPER RIDGING OVER OUR AREA INCREASE SLIGHTLY FROM
THE WEST. THE DISSIPATING FRONT WILL BECOME EVEN LESS DEFINED...BUT
STILL HANGS ON THROUGH SUNDAY WHILE PUSHING OFFSHORE. SUBSIDENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH RIDGING ALOFT WILL SUPPRESS RAIN CHANCES A BIT OVER
THE WEEKEND AND AT THAT TIME WE EXPECT A RETURN TO A MORE
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORM WITH THE SEABREEZE AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
DRIVING VIRTUALLY EVERYTHING. THAT SAID WE WILL HAVE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
IT SHOULD ALSO BE NOTED THAT WITH THE UPPER RIDGING...AN INCREASING
TREND IN HIGH TEMPERATURE SHOULD BE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND...LOW
TO MID 90S FOR MOST LOCATIONS...NEAR 90 AT THE BEACHES. FOR OUR
NORTHERN REGION...THE MOS SUDDENLY WENT TO UPPER 90S AS OF 24.18Z RUN
AND CONTINUED FOR 25.00Z RUN. THE EURO MOS WAS SLIGHTLY COOLER..AND
WITH THE SUBSIDENCE EXPECTED TO INCREASE LAYER STABILITY...THAT WOULD
SEEM REASONABLE. HOWEVER NEITHER WE NOR THE NEIGHBORS ARE READY TO
INCREASE THE HIGHS FOR SUNDAY QUITE AS HIGH AS THE MAV GUIDANCE WANTS
IT...AND WE KEPT IT AROUND MID 90S ANTICIPATING ESTABLISHMENT OF WHAT
DIRECTION THIS TREND MAINTAINS. HEAT INDICES SHOULD STAY BETWEEN 100
AND 105 IN MOST CASES. SUNDAY AM LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S
OVER INTERIOR COUNTIES TO THE UPPER 70S COASTAL. 77/BD

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. MODELS
ARE PHASING CLOSELY AS TO POSITIONS OF FEATURES. EARLY NEXT WEEK THE
UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE UNITED STATES.
THIS ALLOWS A COLD FRONT TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...LIKELY PUSHING SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
AND OUT OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO BY WEDNESDAY. EXPECT AN INCREASED
CHANCE AGAIN FOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...THEN LOW TO NIL RAIN CHANCES MID TO LATE
WEEK BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. WILL STILL LIKELY BE LOOKING AT MID 90S
FOR DAYTIME HIGHS ON MONDAY FOR MOST LOCATIONS...BUT MAX TEMPS DROP
TO THE LOWER 90S AROUND MIDWEEK WITH WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION AND DRY
DEWPOINTS MOVING INTO OUR REGION BEHIND THE FRONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S MONDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...BUT
COOLING TO NEARLY 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...LOW TO MID 60S FOR SOME
INLAND LOCATIONS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT PER THE MEX
GUIDANCE. EURO MOS IS EVEN A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER STILL. 77/BD

MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL GULF THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK THEN WEAKEN THROUGH MIDWEEK AS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHWEST. A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED
OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK THEN BUILD THROUGH
MIDWEEK AS THE UPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. LITTLE
CHANGE IN SEAS IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND...GENERALLY 1 TO 2
FEET...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL INCREASE IN SEAS THROUGH
MIDWEEK...POSSIBLY INCREASING TO 3 TO 5 FEET TUES INTO EARLY WED DUE
TO A STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW. HIGHER WINDS AND WAVES CAN BE EXPECTED
NEAR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
FOLLOWED BY THE BETTER DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MIDWEEK.
32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      74  91  75  92  76 /  30  30  20  20  10
PENSACOLA   76  91  78  92  78 /  30  30  20  20  10
DESTIN      78  87  79  90  79 /  20  30  20  20  10
EVERGREEN   71  93  73  95  75 /  20  30  10  10  10
WAYNESBORO  69  94  73  95  73 /  10  10  10  10  10
CAMDEN      70  93  73  95  75 /  10  20  10  10  10
CRESTVIEW   73  94  73  95  75 /  30  40  20  10  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KMOB 252339 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
639 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.AVIATION [26.00Z TAF ISSUANCE]...RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA
GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF I-65 THIS EVENING. WILL MENTION TSRA
IN THE VCTY OF MOB/BFM GIVEN LATEST RADAR TRENDS WITH CONVECTION
TO THE NORTH AND CLOSEST TO THESE TERMINALS. FOR PNS...WEATHER WAS
MOVING EAST OF THE TERMINAL. CLOUDS ARE AT MULTIPLE LEVELS THIS
EVENING WITH A MIX OF MVFR CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH CB AND MID/HIGH CLOUDS.
AFTER 26.03Z...VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST. MORE SCATTERED TSRA POSSIBLE
ON SATURDAY. LIGHT WIND TONIGHT WITH A PREVAILING SOUTHWEST WIND OF 8
TO 13 KNOTS FORECAST DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. /10

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014/

SHORT TERM...[TONIGHT]...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL PARTS
OF AL/MS MOVES SOUTHWARD INTO LOWER SECTIONS OF THE CWFA...THEN
BECOMING DIFFUSE NEAR THE COAST OF JUST OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. THIS
PATTERN LEAVES THE LOWER HALF OF THE CWFA UNDER THE GUN FOR MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING...REDEVELOPING ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST EARLY SAT MORNING. THE EVENING CONVECTION COULD ALSO
LINGER LATER THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS DUE TO THE POSITION OF
THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH TOWARDS THE COAST. A FEW
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THE
MAIN THREAT STILL BEING GUSTY STRAIGHT LINE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLY
REACHING 40 AND 50 MPH.

FOR SATURDAY...EXPECT LESS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
THE MOST PART THOUGH WE WILL SEE NEW DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST EARLY SAT MORNING CONFINED MOSTLY ALONG A WEAK SEABREEZE
BOUNDARY MOVING INLAND DURING THE DAY. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED. AS FOR TEMPS WILL USE A BLEND OF THE 00Z
ECMWF MOS AND TODAYS FORECAST ISSUED EARLY THIS MORNING. CURRENT MAV
GUIDANCE LOOKS TO BE TO WARM AND INCONSISTENT WITH THE CURRENT
PATTERN OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION. TONIGHT`S LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR MOST AREAS NORTH OF THE I-10
CORRIDOR AND THE MID TO UPPER 70S CLOSER TO THE COAST. SATURDAY`S
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS
AND THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S CLOSER TO THE COAST. 32/EE

WET MICROBURST RISK REMAINS MODERATE.

SHORT TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...MODELS ARE
RATHER CLOSELY TIMED AS TO POSITIONS AND CHARACTER OF SURFACE AND
UPPER AIR FEATURES. SMALL PERTURBATIONS IN THE WESTERLIES ARE MOVING
OUT OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS. AS
THEY MOVE DOWNSTREAM INTO A TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD...THEY
WILL ENABLE DEEPENING OF THIS TROUGH. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...A COLD
FRONT WILL HAVE DRIFTED SOUTHWARD AND BEGUN TO DISSIPATE BY SATURDAY
NIGHT AS THE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES SLIGHTLY EAST OVER THE WEEKEND AND
THE EFFECTS OF UPPER RIDGING OVER OUR AREA INCREASE SLIGHTLY FROM
THE WEST. THE DISSIPATING FRONT WILL BECOME EVEN LESS DEFINED...BUT
STILL HANGS ON THROUGH SUNDAY WHILE PUSHING OFFSHORE. SUBSIDENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH RIDGING ALOFT WILL SUPPRESS RAIN CHANCES A BIT OVER
THE WEEKEND AND AT THAT TIME WE EXPECT A RETURN TO A MORE
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORM WITH THE SEABREEZE AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
DRIVING VIRTUALLY EVERYTHING. THAT SAID WE WILL HAVE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
IT SHOULD ALSO BE NOTED THAT WITH THE UPPER RIDGING...AN INCREASING
TREND IN HIGH TEMPERATURE SHOULD BE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND...LOW
TO MID 90S FOR MOST LOCATIONS...NEAR 90 AT THE BEACHES. FOR OUR
NORTHERN REGION...THE MOS SUDDENLY WENT TO UPPER 90S AS OF 24.18Z RUN
AND CONTINUED FOR 25.00Z RUN. THE EURO MOS WAS SLIGHTLY COOLER..AND
WITH THE SUBSIDENCE EXPECTED TO INCREASE LAYER STABILITY...THAT WOULD
SEEM REASONABLE. HOWEVER NEITHER WE NOR THE NEIGHBORS ARE READY TO
INCREASE THE HIGHS FOR SUNDAY QUITE AS HIGH AS THE MAV GUIDANCE WANTS
IT...AND WE KEPT IT AROUND MID 90S ANTICIPATING ESTABLISHMENT OF WHAT
DIRECTION THIS TREND MAINTAINS. HEAT INDICES SHOULD STAY BETWEEN 100
AND 105 IN MOST CASES. SUNDAY AM LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S
OVER INTERIOR COUNTIES TO THE UPPER 70S COASTAL. 77/BD

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. MODELS
ARE PHASING CLOSELY AS TO POSITIONS OF FEATURES. EARLY NEXT WEEK THE
UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE UNITED STATES.
THIS ALLOWS A COLD FRONT TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...LIKELY PUSHING SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
AND OUT OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO BY WEDNESDAY. EXPECT AN INCREASED
CHANCE AGAIN FOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...THEN LOW TO NIL RAIN CHANCES MID TO LATE
WEEK BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. WILL STILL LIKELY BE LOOKING AT MID 90S
FOR DAYTIME HIGHS ON MONDAY FOR MOST LOCATIONS...BUT MAX TEMPS DROP
TO THE LOWER 90S AROUND MIDWEEK WITH WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION AND DRY
DEWPOINTS MOVING INTO OUR REGION BEHIND THE FRONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S MONDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...BUT
COOLING TO NEARLY 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...LOW TO MID 60S FOR SOME
INLAND LOCATIONS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT PER THE MEX
GUIDANCE. EURO MOS IS EVEN A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER STILL. 77/BD

MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL GULF THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK THEN WEAKEN THROUGH MIDWEEK AS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHWEST. A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED
OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK THEN BUILD THROUGH
MIDWEEK AS THE UPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. LITTLE
CHANGE IN SEAS IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND...GENERALLY 1 TO 2
FEET...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL INCREASE IN SEAS THROUGH
MIDWEEK...POSSIBLY INCREASING TO 3 TO 5 FEET TUES INTO EARLY WED DUE
TO A STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW. HIGHER WINDS AND WAVES CAN BE EXPECTED
NEAR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
FOLLOWED BY THE BETTER DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MIDWEEK.
32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      74  91  75  92  76 /  30  30  20  20  10
PENSACOLA   76  91  78  92  78 /  30  30  20  20  10
DESTIN      78  87  79  90  79 /  20  30  20  20  10
EVERGREEN   71  93  73  95  75 /  20  30  10  10  10
WAYNESBORO  69  94  73  95  73 /  10  10  10  10  10
CAMDEN      70  93  73  95  75 /  10  20  10  10  10
CRESTVIEW   73  94  73  95  75 /  30  40  20  10  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMOB 252104
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
404 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...[TODAY AND TONIGHT]...LATEST SATELLITE LOOPS AND SFC
OBS TO THE NORTH CONTINUE TO SHOW A LARGE AREA OF DRIER AIR OVER
MUCH OF INTERIOR AL/MS PUSHING SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE COAST. LATEST
PROGS FROM BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OVER CENTRAL PARTS OF AL AND MS THIS MORNING MOVING SOUTHWARD INTO
LOWER SECTIONS OF THE CWFA THIS AFTERNOON THEN BECOMING DIFFUSE NEAR
THE COAST OF JUST OFFSHORE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THIS PATTERN
LEAVES THE LOWER HALF OF THE CWFA UNDER THE GUN FOR MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...REDEVELOPING ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST EARLY SAT MORNING. THE EVENING CONVECTION COULD
ALSO LINGER LATER THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS DUE TO THE POSITION
OF THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH TOWARDS THE COAST. AS
MENTIONED EARLIER STILL BELIEVE A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THE MAIN
THREAT STILL BEING GUSTY STRAIGHT LINE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING
40 AND 50 MPH BRIEFLY MOSTLY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING. FOR SATURDAY EXPECT LESS COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE MOST PART THOUGH WE WILL SEE NEW
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST EARLY SAT MORNING CONFINED
MOSTLY ALONG A WEAK SEABREEZE BOUNDARY MOVING INLAND DURING THE DAY.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED. AS FOR TEMPS WILL
USE A BLEND OF THE 00Z ECMWF MOS AND TODAYS FORECAST ISSUED EARLY
THIS MORNING. CURRENT MAV GUIDANCE LOOKS TO BE TO WARM AND
INCONSISTENT WITH THE CURRENT PATTERN OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
REGION. TONIGHTS LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR
MOST AREAS NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND THE MID TO UPPER 70S CLOSER
TO THE COAST. SATURDAYS HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S
FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S CLOSER TO THE
COAST. 32/EE

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK REMAINS MODERATE.

.SHORT TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...MODELS ARE
RATHER CLOSELY TIMED AS TO POSITIONS AND CHARACTER OF SURFACE AND
UPPER AIR FEATURES. SMALL PERTURBATIONS IN THE WESTERLIES ARE MOVING
OUT OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS. AS
THEY MOVE DOWNSTREAM INTO A TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD...THEY
WILL ENABLE DEEPENING OF THIS TROUGH. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...A COLD
FRONT WILL HAVE DRIFTED SOUTHWARD AND BEGUN TO DISSIPATE BY SATURDAY
NIGHT AS THE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES SLIGHTLY EAST OVER THE WEEKEND AND
THE EFFECTS OF UPPER RIDGING OVER OUR AREA INCREASE SLIGHTLY FROM
THE WEST. THE DISSIPATING FRONT WILL BECOME EVEN LESS DEFINED...BUT
STILL HANGS ON THROUGH SUNDAY WHILE PUSHING OFFSHORE. SUBSIDENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH RIDGING ALOFT WILL SUPPRESS RAIN CHANCES A BIT OVER
THE WEEKEND AND AT THAT TIME WE EXPECT A RETURN TO A MORE
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORM WITH THE SEABREEZE AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
DRIVING VIRTUALLY EVERYTHING. THAT SAID WE WILL HAVE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
IT SHOULD ALSO BE NOTED THAT WITH THE UPPER RIDGING...AN INCREASING
TREND IN HIGH TEMPERATURE SHOULD BE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND...LOW
TO MID 90S FOR MOST LOCATIONS...NEAR 90 AT THE BEACHES. FOR OUR
NORTHERN REGION...THE MOS SUDDENLY WENT TO UPPER 90S AS OF 24.18Z RUN
AND CONTINUED FOR 25.00Z RUN. THE EURO MOS WAS SLIGHTLY COOLER..AND
WITH THE SUBSIDENCE EXPECTED TO INCREASE LAYER STABILITY...THAT WOULD
SEEM REASONABLE. HOWEVER NEITHER WE NOR THE NEIGHBORS ARE READY TO
INCREASE THE HIGHS FOR SUNDAY QUITE AS HIGH AS THE MAV GUIDANCE WANTS
IT...AND WE KEPT IT AROUND MID 90S ANTICIPATING ESTABLISHMENT OF WHAT
DIRECTION THIS TREND MAINTAINS. HEAT INDICES SHOULD STAY BETWEEN 100
AND 105 IN MOST CASES. SATURDAY LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S OVER
INTERIOR COUNTIES TO THE UPPER 70S COASTAL. 77/BD

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. MODELS
ARE PHASING CLOSELY AS TO POSITIONS OF FEATURES. EARLY NEXT WEEK THE
UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE UNITED STATES.
THIS ALLOWS A COLD FRONT TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...LIKELY PUSHING SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
AND OUT OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO BY WEDNESDAY. EXPECT AN INCREASED
CHANCE AGAIN FOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...THEN LOW TO NIL RAIN CHANCES MID TO LATE
WEEK BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. WILL STILL LIKELY BE LOOKING AT MID 90S
FOR DAYTIME HIGHS ON MONDAY FOR MOST LOCATIONS...BUT MAX TEMPS DROP
TO THE LOWER 90S AROUND MIDWEEK WITH WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION AND DRY
DEWPOINTS MOVING INTO OUR REGION BEHIND THE FRONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S MONDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...BUT
COOLING TO NEARLY 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...LOW TO MID 60S FOR SOME
INLAND LOCATIONS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT PER THE MEX
GUIDANCE. EURO MOS IS EVEN A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER STILL. 77/BD

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL GULF THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK THEN WEAKEN THROUGH MIDWEEK AS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHWEST. A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED
OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK THEN BUILD THROUGH
MIDWEEK AS THE UPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. LITTLE
CHANGE IN SEAS IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND...GENERALLY 1 TO 2
FEET...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL INCREASE IN SEAS THROUGH
MIDWEEK...POSSIBLY INCREASING TO 3 TO 5 FEET TUES INTO EARLY WED DUE
TO A STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW. HIGHER WINDS AND WAVES CAN BE EXPECTED
NEAR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
FOLLOWED BY THE BETTER DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MIDWEEK.
32/EE

&&

.AVIATION...[25.18Z-26.00Z ISSUANCES]...VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH 27.00Z. LOWER CIGS MAINLY IN AND AROUND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING AND
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON SAT. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST AT 8 TO 10
KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SAT THEN BECOMING SOUTHWEST AT 8 TO 10
KNOTS LATE SAT MORNING THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON. 32/EE

&&

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      74  91  75  92  76 /  30  30  20  20  10
PENSACOLA   76  91  78  92  78 /  30  30  20  20  10
DESTIN      78  87  79  90  79 /  20  30  20  20  10
EVERGREEN   71  93  73  95  75 /  20  30  10  10  10
WAYNESBORO  69  94  73  95  73 /  10  10  10  10  10
CAMDEN      70  93  73  95  75 /  10  20  10  10  10
CRESTVIEW   73  94  73  95  75 /  30  40  20  10  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KMOB 251741 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1231 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.AVIATION...[25.18Z ISSUANCE]...VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
26.18Z. LOWER CIGS MAINLY IN AND AROUND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING AND DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS ON SAT. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE 5 KNOTS OR LESS
THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHIFTING SOUTHWEST AT 8 TO 10 KNOTS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SAT THEN BECOMING SOUTHWEST AT 8 TO 10
KNOTS LATE SAT MORNING THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON. 32/EE

&&

.UPDATE...JUST DID A QUICK UPDATE TO THE CURRENT SHORT TERM
DISCUSSION JUST TO MENTION A MODERATE RISK FOR WET MICROBURST TODAY.
ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS A MORE FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF WET
MICROBURSTS TODAY MOST OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS WITH WIND GUSTS MOSTLY IN
THE 40 TO 50 KNOT RANGE. ALSO...WITH THIS STILL CAN`T RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED CASE OF DAMAGING WINDS OR SMALL HAIL OCCURRING MOSTLY
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS...GENERALLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF
THE HIGHWAY 84 IN SOUTHWEST AL. 32/EE

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS MODERATE.


.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. DOWNSTREAM OF THE RIDGE...A TROUGH
CONTINUES TO DIG ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES. AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH...A
WEAK COLD FRONT HAS STALLED ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND
WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD BEFORE WASHING OUT TONIGHT. THE
COMBINATION OF THE WEAK TROUGH ALOFT AND THE BOUNDARY IN THE AREA
WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED
ACROSS THE MARINE AREA AND ARE MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE BEACHES.
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT CAN BE EXPECTED LATE THIS MORNING AND THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. ONLY
ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AS A DRIER
AIRMASS MOVES INTO NORTHERN ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED...HOWEVER A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY
WINDS UP TO 40 MPH IN ADDITION TO FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES. HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 90S INLAND TO UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOW 70S INLAND TO UPPER 70S ALONG THE
COAST. /13

(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...WEAK TROF ALOFT PERSISTS BUT MOVES
SLIGHTLY EAST OVER THE WEEKEND AND UPPER RIDGING INCREASES SLIGHTLY
OVER OUR AREA FROM THE WEST. THE DISSIPATING SFC BOUNDARY BECOMES LESS
DEFINED...BUT STILL PERSISTS THROUGH SUNDAY. WITH THE SLIGHT RIDGING
ALOFT...RAIN CHANCES WILL BE REDUCED A LITTLE OVER THE WEEKEND WHEN
WE WILL BE LOOKING MORE AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALSO...WITH THE
UPPER RIDGING SLIGHTLY WARMER MAX TEMPS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S FOR MOST LOCATIONS (BUT NEAR 90
AT THE BEACHES). SATURDAY LOW TEMPS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER
70S OVER INTERIOR COUNTIES TO THE UPPER 70S COASTAL.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...DURING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK THE UPPER TROF DEEPENS OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
COUNTRY...ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE FCST AREA
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AND LIKELY PUSH SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA AND
OUT OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO BY WEDNESDAY. EXPECT A INCREASED CHANCE
AGAIN FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...THEN LOW TO NO
RAIN CHANCES MID TO LATE WEEK IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. WILL
STILL LIKELY BE LOOKING AT MID 90S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS ON MONDAY FOR
MOST LOCATIONS...BUT MAX TEMPS DROP TO THE LOWER 90S TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION AND DRIER AIRMASS BUILDING
INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS IN THE LOW TO
MID 70S MONDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH...BUT COOLING TO
NEARLY 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL (LOW TO MID 60S) FOR SOME INLAND
LOCATIONS BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
12/DS

&&

.AVIATION (25.12Z ISSUANCE)...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH BRIEF
PERIODS OF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS. /13

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL GULF THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS THE MARINE AREA. LITTLE CHANGE IN
SEAS IS EXPECTED. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY DURING LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS. /13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      91  74  91  75  92 /  40  20  20  20  20
PENSACOLA   89  76  91  78  92 /  40  20  30  20  10
DESTIN      87  78  87  80  87 /  40  20  20  20  10
EVERGREEN   92  71  93  73  93 /  30  20  30  10  20
WAYNESBORO  93  69  94  73  95 /  20  20  10  10  20
CAMDEN      93  70  93  73  94 /  20  20  20  10  20
CRESTVIEW   93  73  94  73  94 /  40  20  30  20  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$











000
FXUS64 KMOB 251442 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
921 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.UPDATE...JUST DID A QUICK UPDATE TO THE CURRENT SHORT TERM
DISCUSSION JUST TO MENTION A MODERATE RISK FOR WET MICROBURST TODAY.
ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS A MORE FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF WET
MICROBURSTS TODAY MOST OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS WITH WIND GUSTS MOSTLY IN
THE 40 TO 50 KNOT RANGE. ALSO...WITH THIS STILL CAN`T RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED CASE OF DAMAGING WINDS OR SMALL HAIL OCCURRING MOSTLY
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS...GENERALLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF
THE HIGHWAY 84 IN SOUTHWEST AL. 32/EE

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS MODERATE.


.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. DOWNSTREAM OF THE RIDGE...A TROUGH
CONTINUES TO DIG ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES. AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH...A
WEAK COLD FRONT HAS STALLED ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND
WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD BEFORE WASHING OUT TONIGHT. THE
COMBINATION OF THE WEAK TROUGH ALOFT AND THE BOUNDARY IN THE AREA
WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED
ACROSS THE MARINE AREA AND ARE MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE BEACHES.
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT CAN BE EXPECTED LATE THIS MORNING AND THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. ONLY
ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AS A DRIER
AIRMASS MOVES INTO NORTHERN ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED...HOWEVER A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY
WINDS UP TO 40 MPH IN ADDITION TO FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES. HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 90S INLAND TO UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOW 70S INLAND TO UPPER 70S ALONG THE
COAST. /13

(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...WEAK TROF ALOFT PERSISTS BUT MOVES
SLIGHTLY EAST OVER THE WEEKEND AND UPPER RIDGING INCREASES SLIGHTLY
OVER OUR AREA FROM THE WEST. THE DISSIPATING SFC BOUNDARY BECOMES LESS
DEFINED...BUT STILL PERSISTS THROUGH SUNDAY. WITH THE SLIGHT RIDGING
ALOFT...RAIN CHANCES WILL BE REDUCED A LITTLE OVER THE WEEKEND WHEN
WE WILL BE LOOKING MORE AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALSO...WITH THE
UPPER RIDGING SLIGHTLY WARMER MAX TEMPS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S FOR MOST LOCATIONS (BUT NEAR 90
AT THE BEACHES). SATURDAY LOW TEMPS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER
70S OVER INTERIOR COUNTIES TO THE UPPER 70S COASTAL.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...DURING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK THE UPPER TROF DEEPENS OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
COUNTRY...ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE FCST AREA
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AND LIKELY PUSH SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA AND
OUT OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO BY WEDNESDAY. EXPECT A INCREASED CHANCE
AGAIN FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...THEN LOW TO NO
RAIN CHANCES MID TO LATE WEEK IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. WILL
STILL LIKELY BE LOOKING AT MID 90S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS ON MONDAY FOR
MOST LOCATIONS...BUT MAX TEMPS DROP TO THE LOWER 90S TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION AND DRIER AIRMASS BUILDING
INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS IN THE LOW TO
MID 70S MONDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH...BUT COOLING TO
NEARLY 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL (LOW TO MID 60S) FOR SOME INLAND
LOCATIONS BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
12/DS

&&

.AVIATION (25.12Z ISSUANCE)...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH BRIEF
PERIODS OF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS. /13

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL GULF THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS THE MARINE AREA. LITTLE CHANGE IN
SEAS IS EXPECTED. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY DURING LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS. /13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      91  74  91  75  92 /  40  20  20  20  20
PENSACOLA   89  76  91  78  92 /  40  20  30  20  10
DESTIN      87  78  87  80  87 /  40  20  20  20  10
EVERGREEN   92  71  93  73  93 /  30  20  30  10  20
WAYNESBORO  93  69  94  73  95 /  20  20  10  10  20
CAMDEN      93  70  93  73  94 /  20  20  20  10  20
CRESTVIEW   93  73  94  73  94 /  40  20  30  20  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








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