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000
FXUS64 KMOB 290435 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1135 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.AVIATION...
29.06Z TAF ISSUANCE...OUTSIDE OF SCATTERED HIGH CIRRUS OVER THE FAR
NORTHERN ZONES...SKIES ARE CLEAR ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
AREA. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BE POSITIONED OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW
AND THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON CUMULUS FROM 4 TO 6 KFT.
VSBY OK. /10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      43  68  58  80  59 /  00  00  05  30  20
PENSACOLA   44  66  58  79  62 /  00  00  05  30  20
DESTIN      47  65  58  75  63 /  00  00  05  20  20
EVERGREEN   37  69  51  79  55 /  00  00  05  50  20
WAYNESBORO  40  70  55  80  55 /  05  00  10  40  20
CAMDEN      37  67  54  76  54 /  05  00  10  60  10
CRESTVIEW   37  69  50  80  56 /  00  00  05  40  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 290435 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1135 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.AVIATION...
29.06Z TAF ISSUANCE...OUTSIDE OF SCATTERED HIGH CIRRUS OVER THE FAR
NORTHERN ZONES...SKIES ARE CLEAR ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
AREA. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BE POSITIONED OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW
AND THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON CUMULUS FROM 4 TO 6 KFT.
VSBY OK. /10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      43  68  58  80  59 /  00  00  05  30  20
PENSACOLA   44  66  58  79  62 /  00  00  05  30  20
DESTIN      47  65  58  75  63 /  00  00  05  20  20
EVERGREEN   37  69  51  79  55 /  00  00  05  50  20
WAYNESBORO  40  70  55  80  55 /  05  00  10  40  20
CAMDEN      37  67  54  76  54 /  05  00  10  60  10
CRESTVIEW   37  69  50  80  56 /  00  00  05  40  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 290435 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1135 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.AVIATION...
29.06Z TAF ISSUANCE...OUTSIDE OF SCATTERED HIGH CIRRUS OVER THE FAR
NORTHERN ZONES...SKIES ARE CLEAR ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
AREA. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BE POSITIONED OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW
AND THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON CUMULUS FROM 4 TO 6 KFT.
VSBY OK. /10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      43  68  58  80  59 /  00  00  05  30  20
PENSACOLA   44  66  58  79  62 /  00  00  05  30  20
DESTIN      47  65  58  75  63 /  00  00  05  20  20
EVERGREEN   37  69  51  79  55 /  00  00  05  50  20
WAYNESBORO  40  70  55  80  55 /  05  00  10  40  20
CAMDEN      37  67  54  76  54 /  05  00  10  60  10
CRESTVIEW   37  69  50  80  56 /  00  00  05  40  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMOB 282341 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
641 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.AVIATION...
29.00Z TAF ISSUANCE...SATELLITE SHOWS MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS STREAMING
SOUTHEAST FROM THE MID-SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST GEORGIA. THE THICKER
PORTION OF THESE CLOUDS WAS POSITIONED TO THE NORTH OF THE TERMINALS.
IFR CONDITIONS FORECAST IN THE NEAR TERM. THERE CONTINUES TO BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATUS WITH BASES OF 3000-3500 FT
AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW EARLY ON IS FORECAST TO
BECOME EAST NORTHEAST DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SUNDAY. /10

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...FOR TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY...A STRONG SHORTWAVE AND 100+ KT UPPER LEVEL JET OVER THE
MIDSOUTH/NORTHERN MS/AL IS RESULTING IN A BAND OF EXTENSIVE MID LEVEL
CLOUDS AND VERY LIGHT PRECIP THAT IS MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A LIGHT SHOWER OR SPRINKLES
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS PLACES SUCH AS BUTLER...THOMASVILLE...AND
CAMDEN THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. THE SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST OF
THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH THE MID CLOUD DECK AND ANY PRECIP CHANCES
ALSO MOVING EAST. HOWEVER... GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A BAND
OF SIGNIFICANT 850 MB MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THIS
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AREAS OF STRATUS DEVELOPING...ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WHILE CONTINUED LOW LEVEL RIDGING AND LOW DEWPOINTS SUPPORT
ANOTHER VERY COOL NIGHT FOR LATE MARCH...JUST HOW COLD LOWS GET WILL
DEPEND ON HOW EXPANSIVE THE STRATUS BECOMES. GIVEN THE LIKELIHOOD OF
PERIODS OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE
WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE. THIS RESULTS IN LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S WELL
INLAND WITH LOW 40S CLOSER TO THE COAST. IF A SIGNIFICANT PERIOD OF
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES MATERIALIZES...THAN LOWS WILL LIKELY BE EVEN
COLDER.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF
THE DEPARTING TROUGH. THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
AREA...ALLOWING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND
GRADUALLY INCREASING HUMIDITY VALUES. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER
70S ARE EXPECTED...WITH MID 60S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. 34/JFB

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...A WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE
TROF ADVANCING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY SUNDAY EVENING
AMPLIFIES INTO AN UPPER TROF MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES ON
MONDAY AND SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC MONDAY NIGHT. A
SHORTWAVE TROF MEANWHILE ADVANCES ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MEXICO THEN
MOVES ACROSS TEXAS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A SERIES OF LESSER SHORTWAVES
MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF MAINTAINS A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT WHILE A SURFACE LOW WELL TO THE NORTH...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AMPLIFYING UPPER TROF...BRINGS A TRAILING COLD FRONT DEEP INTO THE
SOUTHEAST STATES. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY BEFORE STALLING...THEN
GRADUALLY DISSIPATES MONDAY NIGHT. A SOUTHERLY FLOW BECOMES
REESTABLISHED ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. NEAR SEASONABLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES NEAR 0.85 INCHES SUNDAY EVENING INCREASE TO NEAR 1.25 INCHES
ON MONDAY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA...WITH SIMILAR
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE PERSISTING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. AFTER DRY
CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT...HAVE GONE WITH GOOD CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS
FOR THE INTERIOR PORTION MONDAY MORNING...WITH CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE
POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HIGHS SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOLLOW FOR MONDAY NIGHT
WITH WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA...WITH CHANCE POPS FOR
TUESDAY AS MODEST SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. /29

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...THE TEXAS SHORTWAVE TROF
CONTINUES EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES THROUGH THURSDAY. AN
UPPER TROF MEANWHILE ADVANCES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST STATES THEN
CONTINUES EASTWARD INTO THE INTERIOR EASTERN STATES THROUGH SATURDAY.
A SURFACE RIDGE PERSISTS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A
LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING...THEN A SURFACE LOW...ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER TROF ADVANCING INTO THE EASTERN STATES...PASSES NORTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA AND BRINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA ON SATURDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.1 INCHES FOR
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY ON SATURDAY TO NEAR
1.5 INCHES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. DAYTIME HIGHS CONTINUE TO SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY WITH NEAR SEASONABLE VALUES ON
SATURDAY WITH GENERALLY MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ON THURSDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE TROF
APPROACHES THEN MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOLLOW FOR
FRIDAY AND HAVE TENTATIVELY GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SATURDAY
TO BLEND WITH NEIGHBORS AND AS GFS ENSEMBLE POPS REMAIN FAIRLY
LOW...BUT EXPECT HIGHER POPS FOR THIS PERIOD AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES.
/29

MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE MIDWEST WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL INCREASE SOME TONIGHT...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A MODERATE
EASTERLY WIND DEVELOPING OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. WINDS BECOMES
ONSHORE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AND REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC
WEST INTO EASTERN GULF. 34/JFB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      43  68  58  80  59 /  00  00  05  30  20
PENSACOLA   44  66  58  79  62 /  00  00  05  30  20
DESTIN      47  65  58  75  63 /  00  00  05  20  20
EVERGREEN   37  69  51  79  55 /  00  00  05  50  20
WAYNESBORO  40  70  55  80  55 /  05  00  10  40  20
CAMDEN      37  67  54  76  54 /  05  00  10  60  10
CRESTVIEW   37  69  50  80  56 /  00  00  05  40  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMOB 282341 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
641 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.AVIATION...
29.00Z TAF ISSUANCE...SATELLITE SHOWS MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS STREAMING
SOUTHEAST FROM THE MID-SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST GEORGIA. THE THICKER
PORTION OF THESE CLOUDS WAS POSITIONED TO THE NORTH OF THE TERMINALS.
IFR CONDITIONS FORECAST IN THE NEAR TERM. THERE CONTINUES TO BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATUS WITH BASES OF 3000-3500 FT
AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW EARLY ON IS FORECAST TO
BECOME EAST NORTHEAST DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SUNDAY. /10

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...FOR TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY...A STRONG SHORTWAVE AND 100+ KT UPPER LEVEL JET OVER THE
MIDSOUTH/NORTHERN MS/AL IS RESULTING IN A BAND OF EXTENSIVE MID LEVEL
CLOUDS AND VERY LIGHT PRECIP THAT IS MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A LIGHT SHOWER OR SPRINKLES
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS PLACES SUCH AS BUTLER...THOMASVILLE...AND
CAMDEN THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. THE SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST OF
THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH THE MID CLOUD DECK AND ANY PRECIP CHANCES
ALSO MOVING EAST. HOWEVER... GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A BAND
OF SIGNIFICANT 850 MB MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THIS
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AREAS OF STRATUS DEVELOPING...ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WHILE CONTINUED LOW LEVEL RIDGING AND LOW DEWPOINTS SUPPORT
ANOTHER VERY COOL NIGHT FOR LATE MARCH...JUST HOW COLD LOWS GET WILL
DEPEND ON HOW EXPANSIVE THE STRATUS BECOMES. GIVEN THE LIKELIHOOD OF
PERIODS OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE
WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE. THIS RESULTS IN LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S WELL
INLAND WITH LOW 40S CLOSER TO THE COAST. IF A SIGNIFICANT PERIOD OF
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES MATERIALIZES...THAN LOWS WILL LIKELY BE EVEN
COLDER.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF
THE DEPARTING TROUGH. THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
AREA...ALLOWING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND
GRADUALLY INCREASING HUMIDITY VALUES. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER
70S ARE EXPECTED...WITH MID 60S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. 34/JFB

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...A WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE
TROF ADVANCING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY SUNDAY EVENING
AMPLIFIES INTO AN UPPER TROF MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES ON
MONDAY AND SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC MONDAY NIGHT. A
SHORTWAVE TROF MEANWHILE ADVANCES ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MEXICO THEN
MOVES ACROSS TEXAS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A SERIES OF LESSER SHORTWAVES
MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF MAINTAINS A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT WHILE A SURFACE LOW WELL TO THE NORTH...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AMPLIFYING UPPER TROF...BRINGS A TRAILING COLD FRONT DEEP INTO THE
SOUTHEAST STATES. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY BEFORE STALLING...THEN
GRADUALLY DISSIPATES MONDAY NIGHT. A SOUTHERLY FLOW BECOMES
REESTABLISHED ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. NEAR SEASONABLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES NEAR 0.85 INCHES SUNDAY EVENING INCREASE TO NEAR 1.25 INCHES
ON MONDAY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA...WITH SIMILAR
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE PERSISTING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. AFTER DRY
CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT...HAVE GONE WITH GOOD CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS
FOR THE INTERIOR PORTION MONDAY MORNING...WITH CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE
POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HIGHS SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOLLOW FOR MONDAY NIGHT
WITH WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA...WITH CHANCE POPS FOR
TUESDAY AS MODEST SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. /29

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...THE TEXAS SHORTWAVE TROF
CONTINUES EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES THROUGH THURSDAY. AN
UPPER TROF MEANWHILE ADVANCES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST STATES THEN
CONTINUES EASTWARD INTO THE INTERIOR EASTERN STATES THROUGH SATURDAY.
A SURFACE RIDGE PERSISTS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A
LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING...THEN A SURFACE LOW...ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER TROF ADVANCING INTO THE EASTERN STATES...PASSES NORTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA AND BRINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA ON SATURDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.1 INCHES FOR
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY ON SATURDAY TO NEAR
1.5 INCHES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. DAYTIME HIGHS CONTINUE TO SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY WITH NEAR SEASONABLE VALUES ON
SATURDAY WITH GENERALLY MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ON THURSDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE TROF
APPROACHES THEN MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOLLOW FOR
FRIDAY AND HAVE TENTATIVELY GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SATURDAY
TO BLEND WITH NEIGHBORS AND AS GFS ENSEMBLE POPS REMAIN FAIRLY
LOW...BUT EXPECT HIGHER POPS FOR THIS PERIOD AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES.
/29

MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE MIDWEST WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL INCREASE SOME TONIGHT...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A MODERATE
EASTERLY WIND DEVELOPING OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. WINDS BECOMES
ONSHORE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AND REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC
WEST INTO EASTERN GULF. 34/JFB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      43  68  58  80  59 /  00  00  05  30  20
PENSACOLA   44  66  58  79  62 /  00  00  05  30  20
DESTIN      47  65  58  75  63 /  00  00  05  20  20
EVERGREEN   37  69  51  79  55 /  00  00  05  50  20
WAYNESBORO  40  70  55  80  55 /  05  00  10  40  20
CAMDEN      37  67  54  76  54 /  05  00  10  60  10
CRESTVIEW   37  69  50  80  56 /  00  00  05  40  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 282341 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
641 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.AVIATION...
29.00Z TAF ISSUANCE...SATELLITE SHOWS MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS STREAMING
SOUTHEAST FROM THE MID-SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST GEORGIA. THE THICKER
PORTION OF THESE CLOUDS WAS POSITIONED TO THE NORTH OF THE TERMINALS.
IFR CONDITIONS FORECAST IN THE NEAR TERM. THERE CONTINUES TO BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATUS WITH BASES OF 3000-3500 FT
AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW EARLY ON IS FORECAST TO
BECOME EAST NORTHEAST DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SUNDAY. /10

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...FOR TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY...A STRONG SHORTWAVE AND 100+ KT UPPER LEVEL JET OVER THE
MIDSOUTH/NORTHERN MS/AL IS RESULTING IN A BAND OF EXTENSIVE MID LEVEL
CLOUDS AND VERY LIGHT PRECIP THAT IS MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A LIGHT SHOWER OR SPRINKLES
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS PLACES SUCH AS BUTLER...THOMASVILLE...AND
CAMDEN THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. THE SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST OF
THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH THE MID CLOUD DECK AND ANY PRECIP CHANCES
ALSO MOVING EAST. HOWEVER... GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A BAND
OF SIGNIFICANT 850 MB MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THIS
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AREAS OF STRATUS DEVELOPING...ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WHILE CONTINUED LOW LEVEL RIDGING AND LOW DEWPOINTS SUPPORT
ANOTHER VERY COOL NIGHT FOR LATE MARCH...JUST HOW COLD LOWS GET WILL
DEPEND ON HOW EXPANSIVE THE STRATUS BECOMES. GIVEN THE LIKELIHOOD OF
PERIODS OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE
WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE. THIS RESULTS IN LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S WELL
INLAND WITH LOW 40S CLOSER TO THE COAST. IF A SIGNIFICANT PERIOD OF
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES MATERIALIZES...THAN LOWS WILL LIKELY BE EVEN
COLDER.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF
THE DEPARTING TROUGH. THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
AREA...ALLOWING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND
GRADUALLY INCREASING HUMIDITY VALUES. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER
70S ARE EXPECTED...WITH MID 60S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. 34/JFB

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...A WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE
TROF ADVANCING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY SUNDAY EVENING
AMPLIFIES INTO AN UPPER TROF MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES ON
MONDAY AND SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC MONDAY NIGHT. A
SHORTWAVE TROF MEANWHILE ADVANCES ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MEXICO THEN
MOVES ACROSS TEXAS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A SERIES OF LESSER SHORTWAVES
MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF MAINTAINS A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT WHILE A SURFACE LOW WELL TO THE NORTH...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AMPLIFYING UPPER TROF...BRINGS A TRAILING COLD FRONT DEEP INTO THE
SOUTHEAST STATES. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY BEFORE STALLING...THEN
GRADUALLY DISSIPATES MONDAY NIGHT. A SOUTHERLY FLOW BECOMES
REESTABLISHED ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. NEAR SEASONABLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES NEAR 0.85 INCHES SUNDAY EVENING INCREASE TO NEAR 1.25 INCHES
ON MONDAY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA...WITH SIMILAR
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE PERSISTING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. AFTER DRY
CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT...HAVE GONE WITH GOOD CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS
FOR THE INTERIOR PORTION MONDAY MORNING...WITH CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE
POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HIGHS SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOLLOW FOR MONDAY NIGHT
WITH WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA...WITH CHANCE POPS FOR
TUESDAY AS MODEST SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. /29

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...THE TEXAS SHORTWAVE TROF
CONTINUES EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES THROUGH THURSDAY. AN
UPPER TROF MEANWHILE ADVANCES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST STATES THEN
CONTINUES EASTWARD INTO THE INTERIOR EASTERN STATES THROUGH SATURDAY.
A SURFACE RIDGE PERSISTS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A
LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING...THEN A SURFACE LOW...ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER TROF ADVANCING INTO THE EASTERN STATES...PASSES NORTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA AND BRINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA ON SATURDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.1 INCHES FOR
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY ON SATURDAY TO NEAR
1.5 INCHES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. DAYTIME HIGHS CONTINUE TO SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY WITH NEAR SEASONABLE VALUES ON
SATURDAY WITH GENERALLY MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ON THURSDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE TROF
APPROACHES THEN MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOLLOW FOR
FRIDAY AND HAVE TENTATIVELY GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SATURDAY
TO BLEND WITH NEIGHBORS AND AS GFS ENSEMBLE POPS REMAIN FAIRLY
LOW...BUT EXPECT HIGHER POPS FOR THIS PERIOD AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES.
/29

MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE MIDWEST WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL INCREASE SOME TONIGHT...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A MODERATE
EASTERLY WIND DEVELOPING OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. WINDS BECOMES
ONSHORE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AND REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC
WEST INTO EASTERN GULF. 34/JFB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      43  68  58  80  59 /  00  00  05  30  20
PENSACOLA   44  66  58  79  62 /  00  00  05  30  20
DESTIN      47  65  58  75  63 /  00  00  05  20  20
EVERGREEN   37  69  51  79  55 /  00  00  05  50  20
WAYNESBORO  40  70  55  80  55 /  05  00  10  40  20
CAMDEN      37  67  54  76  54 /  05  00  10  60  10
CRESTVIEW   37  69  50  80  56 /  00  00  05  40  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 282022
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
322 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...FOR TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY...A STRONG SHORTWAVE AND 100+ KT UPPER LEVEL JET OVER THE
MIDSOUTH/NORTHERN MS/AL IS RESULTING IN A BAND OF EXTENSIVE MID LEVEL
CLOUDS AND VERY LIGHT PRECIP THAT IS MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A LIGHT SHOWER OR SPRINKLES
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS PLACES SUCH AS BUTLER...THOMASVILLE...AND
CAMDEN THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. THE SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST OF
THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH THE MID CLOUD DECK AND ANY PRECIP CHANCES
ALSO MOVING EAST. HOWEVER... GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A BAND
OF SIGNIFICANT 850 MB MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THIS
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AREAS OF STRATUS DEVELOPING...ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WHILE CONTINUED LOW LEVEL RIDGING AND LOW DEWPOINTS SUPPORT
ANOTHER VERY COOL NIGHT FOR LATE MARCH...JUST HOW COLD LOWS GET WILL
DEPEND ON HOW EXPANSIVE THE STRATUS BECOMES. GIVEN THE LIKELIHOOD OF
PERIODS OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE
WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE. THIS RESULTS IN LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S WELL
INLAND WITH LOW 40S CLOSER TO THE COAST. IF A SIGNIFICANT PERIOD OF
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES MATERIALIZES...THAN LOWS WILL LIKELY BE EVEN
COLDER.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF
THE DEPARTING TROUGH. THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
AREA...ALLOWING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND
GRADUALLY INCREASING HUMIDITY VALUES. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER
70S ARE EXPECTED...WITH MID 60S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. 34/JFB

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...A WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE
TROF ADVANCING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY SUNDAY EVENING
AMPLIFIES INTO AN UPPER TROF MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES ON
MONDAY AND SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC MONDAY NIGHT. A
SHORTWAVE TROF MEANWHILE ADVANCES ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MEXICO THEN
MOVES ACROSS TEXAS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A SERIES OF LESSER SHORTWAVES
MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF MAINTAINS A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT WHILE A SURFACE LOW WELL TO THE NORTH...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AMPLIFYING UPPER TROF...BRINGS A TRAILING COLD FRONT DEEP INTO THE
SOUTHEAST STATES. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY BEFORE STALLING...THEN
GRADUALLY DISSIPATES MONDAY NIGHT. A SOUTHERLY FLOW BECOMES
REESTABLISHED ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. NEAR SEASONABLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES NEAR 0.85 INCHES SUNDAY EVENING INCREASE TO NEAR 1.25 INCHES
ON MONDAY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA...WITH SIMILAR
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE PERSISTING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. AFTER DRY
CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT...HAVE GONE WITH GOOD CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS
FOR THE INTERIOR PORTION MONDAY MORNING...WITH CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE
POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HIGHS SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOLLOW FOR MONDAY NIGHT
WITH WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA...WITH CHANCE POPS FOR
TUESDAY AS MODEST SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. /29

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...THE TEXAS SHORTWAVE TROF
CONTINUES EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES THROUGH THURSDAY. AN
UPPER TROF MEANWHILE ADVANCES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST STATES THEN
CONTINUES EASTWARD INTO THE INTERIOR EASTERN STATES THROUGH SATURDAY.
A SURFACE RIDGE PERSISTS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A
LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING...THEN A SURFACE LOW...ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER TROF ADVANCING INTO THE EASTERN STATES...PASSES NORTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA AND BRINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA ON SATURDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.1 INCHES FOR
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY ON SATURDAY TO NEAR
1.5 INCHES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. DAYTIME HIGHS CONTINUE TO SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY WITH NEAR SEASONABLE VALUES ON
SATURDAY WITH GENERALLY MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ON THURSDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE TROF
APPROACHES THEN MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOLLOW FOR
FRIDAY AND HAVE TENTATIVELY GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SATURDAY
TO BLEND WITH NEIGHBORS AND AS GFS ENSEMBLE POPS REMAIN FAIRLY
LOW...BUT EXPECT HIGHER POPS FOR THIS PERIOD AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES.
/29

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z ISSUANCE...PREDOMINATE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. MID LEVEL CIGS WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED TO BROKEN
STRATUS WITH BASES OF 3000-3500 FT AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. 34/JFB

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE MIDWEST WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL INCREASE SOME TONIGHT...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A
MODERATE EASTERLY WIND DEVELOPING OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. WINDS
BECOMES ONSHORE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AND REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
ATLANTIC WEST INTO EASTERN GULF. 34/JFB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      43  68  58  80  59 /  00  00  05  30  20
PENSACOLA   44  66  58  79  62 /  00  00  05  30  20
DESTIN      47  65  58  75  63 /  00  00  05  20  20
EVERGREEN   37  69  51  79  55 /  00  00  05  50  20
WAYNESBORO  40  70  55  80  55 /  05  00  10  40  20
CAMDEN      37  67  54  76  54 /  05  00  10  60  10
CRESTVIEW   37  69  50  80  56 /  00  00  05  40  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMOB 282022
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
322 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...FOR TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY...A STRONG SHORTWAVE AND 100+ KT UPPER LEVEL JET OVER THE
MIDSOUTH/NORTHERN MS/AL IS RESULTING IN A BAND OF EXTENSIVE MID LEVEL
CLOUDS AND VERY LIGHT PRECIP THAT IS MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A LIGHT SHOWER OR SPRINKLES
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS PLACES SUCH AS BUTLER...THOMASVILLE...AND
CAMDEN THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. THE SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST OF
THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH THE MID CLOUD DECK AND ANY PRECIP CHANCES
ALSO MOVING EAST. HOWEVER... GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A BAND
OF SIGNIFICANT 850 MB MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THIS
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AREAS OF STRATUS DEVELOPING...ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WHILE CONTINUED LOW LEVEL RIDGING AND LOW DEWPOINTS SUPPORT
ANOTHER VERY COOL NIGHT FOR LATE MARCH...JUST HOW COLD LOWS GET WILL
DEPEND ON HOW EXPANSIVE THE STRATUS BECOMES. GIVEN THE LIKELIHOOD OF
PERIODS OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE
WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE. THIS RESULTS IN LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S WELL
INLAND WITH LOW 40S CLOSER TO THE COAST. IF A SIGNIFICANT PERIOD OF
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES MATERIALIZES...THAN LOWS WILL LIKELY BE EVEN
COLDER.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF
THE DEPARTING TROUGH. THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
AREA...ALLOWING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND
GRADUALLY INCREASING HUMIDITY VALUES. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER
70S ARE EXPECTED...WITH MID 60S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. 34/JFB

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...A WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE
TROF ADVANCING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY SUNDAY EVENING
AMPLIFIES INTO AN UPPER TROF MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES ON
MONDAY AND SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC MONDAY NIGHT. A
SHORTWAVE TROF MEANWHILE ADVANCES ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MEXICO THEN
MOVES ACROSS TEXAS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A SERIES OF LESSER SHORTWAVES
MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF MAINTAINS A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT WHILE A SURFACE LOW WELL TO THE NORTH...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AMPLIFYING UPPER TROF...BRINGS A TRAILING COLD FRONT DEEP INTO THE
SOUTHEAST STATES. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY BEFORE STALLING...THEN
GRADUALLY DISSIPATES MONDAY NIGHT. A SOUTHERLY FLOW BECOMES
REESTABLISHED ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. NEAR SEASONABLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES NEAR 0.85 INCHES SUNDAY EVENING INCREASE TO NEAR 1.25 INCHES
ON MONDAY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA...WITH SIMILAR
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE PERSISTING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. AFTER DRY
CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT...HAVE GONE WITH GOOD CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS
FOR THE INTERIOR PORTION MONDAY MORNING...WITH CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE
POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HIGHS SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOLLOW FOR MONDAY NIGHT
WITH WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA...WITH CHANCE POPS FOR
TUESDAY AS MODEST SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. /29

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...THE TEXAS SHORTWAVE TROF
CONTINUES EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES THROUGH THURSDAY. AN
UPPER TROF MEANWHILE ADVANCES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST STATES THEN
CONTINUES EASTWARD INTO THE INTERIOR EASTERN STATES THROUGH SATURDAY.
A SURFACE RIDGE PERSISTS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A
LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING...THEN A SURFACE LOW...ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER TROF ADVANCING INTO THE EASTERN STATES...PASSES NORTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA AND BRINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA ON SATURDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.1 INCHES FOR
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY ON SATURDAY TO NEAR
1.5 INCHES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. DAYTIME HIGHS CONTINUE TO SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY WITH NEAR SEASONABLE VALUES ON
SATURDAY WITH GENERALLY MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ON THURSDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE TROF
APPROACHES THEN MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOLLOW FOR
FRIDAY AND HAVE TENTATIVELY GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SATURDAY
TO BLEND WITH NEIGHBORS AND AS GFS ENSEMBLE POPS REMAIN FAIRLY
LOW...BUT EXPECT HIGHER POPS FOR THIS PERIOD AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES.
/29

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z ISSUANCE...PREDOMINATE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. MID LEVEL CIGS WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED TO BROKEN
STRATUS WITH BASES OF 3000-3500 FT AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. 34/JFB

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE MIDWEST WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL INCREASE SOME TONIGHT...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A
MODERATE EASTERLY WIND DEVELOPING OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. WINDS
BECOMES ONSHORE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AND REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
ATLANTIC WEST INTO EASTERN GULF. 34/JFB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      43  68  58  80  59 /  00  00  05  30  20
PENSACOLA   44  66  58  79  62 /  00  00  05  30  20
DESTIN      47  65  58  75  63 /  00  00  05  20  20
EVERGREEN   37  69  51  79  55 /  00  00  05  50  20
WAYNESBORO  40  70  55  80  55 /  05  00  10  40  20
CAMDEN      37  67  54  76  54 /  05  00  10  60  10
CRESTVIEW   37  69  50  80  56 /  00  00  05  40  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 282022
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
322 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...FOR TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY...A STRONG SHORTWAVE AND 100+ KT UPPER LEVEL JET OVER THE
MIDSOUTH/NORTHERN MS/AL IS RESULTING IN A BAND OF EXTENSIVE MID LEVEL
CLOUDS AND VERY LIGHT PRECIP THAT IS MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A LIGHT SHOWER OR SPRINKLES
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS PLACES SUCH AS BUTLER...THOMASVILLE...AND
CAMDEN THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. THE SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST OF
THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH THE MID CLOUD DECK AND ANY PRECIP CHANCES
ALSO MOVING EAST. HOWEVER... GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A BAND
OF SIGNIFICANT 850 MB MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THIS
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AREAS OF STRATUS DEVELOPING...ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WHILE CONTINUED LOW LEVEL RIDGING AND LOW DEWPOINTS SUPPORT
ANOTHER VERY COOL NIGHT FOR LATE MARCH...JUST HOW COLD LOWS GET WILL
DEPEND ON HOW EXPANSIVE THE STRATUS BECOMES. GIVEN THE LIKELIHOOD OF
PERIODS OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE
WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE. THIS RESULTS IN LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S WELL
INLAND WITH LOW 40S CLOSER TO THE COAST. IF A SIGNIFICANT PERIOD OF
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES MATERIALIZES...THAN LOWS WILL LIKELY BE EVEN
COLDER.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF
THE DEPARTING TROUGH. THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
AREA...ALLOWING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND
GRADUALLY INCREASING HUMIDITY VALUES. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER
70S ARE EXPECTED...WITH MID 60S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. 34/JFB

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...A WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE
TROF ADVANCING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY SUNDAY EVENING
AMPLIFIES INTO AN UPPER TROF MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES ON
MONDAY AND SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC MONDAY NIGHT. A
SHORTWAVE TROF MEANWHILE ADVANCES ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MEXICO THEN
MOVES ACROSS TEXAS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A SERIES OF LESSER SHORTWAVES
MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF MAINTAINS A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT WHILE A SURFACE LOW WELL TO THE NORTH...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AMPLIFYING UPPER TROF...BRINGS A TRAILING COLD FRONT DEEP INTO THE
SOUTHEAST STATES. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY BEFORE STALLING...THEN
GRADUALLY DISSIPATES MONDAY NIGHT. A SOUTHERLY FLOW BECOMES
REESTABLISHED ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. NEAR SEASONABLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES NEAR 0.85 INCHES SUNDAY EVENING INCREASE TO NEAR 1.25 INCHES
ON MONDAY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA...WITH SIMILAR
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE PERSISTING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. AFTER DRY
CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT...HAVE GONE WITH GOOD CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS
FOR THE INTERIOR PORTION MONDAY MORNING...WITH CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE
POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HIGHS SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOLLOW FOR MONDAY NIGHT
WITH WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA...WITH CHANCE POPS FOR
TUESDAY AS MODEST SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. /29

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...THE TEXAS SHORTWAVE TROF
CONTINUES EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES THROUGH THURSDAY. AN
UPPER TROF MEANWHILE ADVANCES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST STATES THEN
CONTINUES EASTWARD INTO THE INTERIOR EASTERN STATES THROUGH SATURDAY.
A SURFACE RIDGE PERSISTS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A
LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING...THEN A SURFACE LOW...ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER TROF ADVANCING INTO THE EASTERN STATES...PASSES NORTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA AND BRINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA ON SATURDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.1 INCHES FOR
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY ON SATURDAY TO NEAR
1.5 INCHES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. DAYTIME HIGHS CONTINUE TO SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY WITH NEAR SEASONABLE VALUES ON
SATURDAY WITH GENERALLY MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ON THURSDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE TROF
APPROACHES THEN MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOLLOW FOR
FRIDAY AND HAVE TENTATIVELY GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SATURDAY
TO BLEND WITH NEIGHBORS AND AS GFS ENSEMBLE POPS REMAIN FAIRLY
LOW...BUT EXPECT HIGHER POPS FOR THIS PERIOD AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES.
/29

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z ISSUANCE...PREDOMINATE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. MID LEVEL CIGS WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED TO BROKEN
STRATUS WITH BASES OF 3000-3500 FT AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. 34/JFB

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE MIDWEST WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL INCREASE SOME TONIGHT...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A
MODERATE EASTERLY WIND DEVELOPING OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. WINDS
BECOMES ONSHORE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AND REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
ATLANTIC WEST INTO EASTERN GULF. 34/JFB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      43  68  58  80  59 /  00  00  05  30  20
PENSACOLA   44  66  58  79  62 /  00  00  05  30  20
DESTIN      47  65  58  75  63 /  00  00  05  20  20
EVERGREEN   37  69  51  79  55 /  00  00  05  50  20
WAYNESBORO  40  70  55  80  55 /  05  00  10  40  20
CAMDEN      37  67  54  76  54 /  05  00  10  60  10
CRESTVIEW   37  69  50  80  56 /  00  00  05  40  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 282022
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
322 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...FOR TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY...A STRONG SHORTWAVE AND 100+ KT UPPER LEVEL JET OVER THE
MIDSOUTH/NORTHERN MS/AL IS RESULTING IN A BAND OF EXTENSIVE MID LEVEL
CLOUDS AND VERY LIGHT PRECIP THAT IS MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A LIGHT SHOWER OR SPRINKLES
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS PLACES SUCH AS BUTLER...THOMASVILLE...AND
CAMDEN THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. THE SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST OF
THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH THE MID CLOUD DECK AND ANY PRECIP CHANCES
ALSO MOVING EAST. HOWEVER... GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A BAND
OF SIGNIFICANT 850 MB MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THIS
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AREAS OF STRATUS DEVELOPING...ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WHILE CONTINUED LOW LEVEL RIDGING AND LOW DEWPOINTS SUPPORT
ANOTHER VERY COOL NIGHT FOR LATE MARCH...JUST HOW COLD LOWS GET WILL
DEPEND ON HOW EXPANSIVE THE STRATUS BECOMES. GIVEN THE LIKELIHOOD OF
PERIODS OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE
WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE. THIS RESULTS IN LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S WELL
INLAND WITH LOW 40S CLOSER TO THE COAST. IF A SIGNIFICANT PERIOD OF
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES MATERIALIZES...THAN LOWS WILL LIKELY BE EVEN
COLDER.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF
THE DEPARTING TROUGH. THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
AREA...ALLOWING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND
GRADUALLY INCREASING HUMIDITY VALUES. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER
70S ARE EXPECTED...WITH MID 60S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. 34/JFB

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...A WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE
TROF ADVANCING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY SUNDAY EVENING
AMPLIFIES INTO AN UPPER TROF MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES ON
MONDAY AND SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC MONDAY NIGHT. A
SHORTWAVE TROF MEANWHILE ADVANCES ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MEXICO THEN
MOVES ACROSS TEXAS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A SERIES OF LESSER SHORTWAVES
MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF MAINTAINS A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT WHILE A SURFACE LOW WELL TO THE NORTH...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AMPLIFYING UPPER TROF...BRINGS A TRAILING COLD FRONT DEEP INTO THE
SOUTHEAST STATES. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY BEFORE STALLING...THEN
GRADUALLY DISSIPATES MONDAY NIGHT. A SOUTHERLY FLOW BECOMES
REESTABLISHED ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. NEAR SEASONABLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES NEAR 0.85 INCHES SUNDAY EVENING INCREASE TO NEAR 1.25 INCHES
ON MONDAY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA...WITH SIMILAR
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE PERSISTING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. AFTER DRY
CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT...HAVE GONE WITH GOOD CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS
FOR THE INTERIOR PORTION MONDAY MORNING...WITH CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE
POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HIGHS SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOLLOW FOR MONDAY NIGHT
WITH WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA...WITH CHANCE POPS FOR
TUESDAY AS MODEST SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. /29

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...THE TEXAS SHORTWAVE TROF
CONTINUES EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES THROUGH THURSDAY. AN
UPPER TROF MEANWHILE ADVANCES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST STATES THEN
CONTINUES EASTWARD INTO THE INTERIOR EASTERN STATES THROUGH SATURDAY.
A SURFACE RIDGE PERSISTS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A
LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING...THEN A SURFACE LOW...ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER TROF ADVANCING INTO THE EASTERN STATES...PASSES NORTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA AND BRINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA ON SATURDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.1 INCHES FOR
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY ON SATURDAY TO NEAR
1.5 INCHES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. DAYTIME HIGHS CONTINUE TO SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY WITH NEAR SEASONABLE VALUES ON
SATURDAY WITH GENERALLY MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ON THURSDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE TROF
APPROACHES THEN MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOLLOW FOR
FRIDAY AND HAVE TENTATIVELY GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SATURDAY
TO BLEND WITH NEIGHBORS AND AS GFS ENSEMBLE POPS REMAIN FAIRLY
LOW...BUT EXPECT HIGHER POPS FOR THIS PERIOD AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES.
/29

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z ISSUANCE...PREDOMINATE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. MID LEVEL CIGS WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED TO BROKEN
STRATUS WITH BASES OF 3000-3500 FT AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. 34/JFB

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE MIDWEST WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL INCREASE SOME TONIGHT...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A
MODERATE EASTERLY WIND DEVELOPING OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. WINDS
BECOMES ONSHORE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AND REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
ATLANTIC WEST INTO EASTERN GULF. 34/JFB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      43  68  58  80  59 /  00  00  05  30  20
PENSACOLA   44  66  58  79  62 /  00  00  05  30  20
DESTIN      47  65  58  75  63 /  00  00  05  20  20
EVERGREEN   37  69  51  79  55 /  00  00  05  50  20
WAYNESBORO  40  70  55  80  55 /  05  00  10  40  20
CAMDEN      37  67  54  76  54 /  05  00  10  60  10
CRESTVIEW   37  69  50  80  56 /  00  00  05  40  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMOB 281652 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1152 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...EXTENSIVE MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...AS A SHORTWAVE
OVER THE MIDSOUTH ROUNDS THE BASE OF A AMPLIFIED TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS. THIS FEATURE IS ALSO RESULTING IN SOME VERY LIGHT
PATCHY PRECIP ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MS THIS MORNING AND THE
LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR INDICATE THAT ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS AREAS SUCH AS BUTLER...
THOMASVILLE...AND CAMDEN. FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO INCREASE CLOUD
COVER THIS AFTERNOON AND INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THOSE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 50S WELL INLAND
WITH LOW TO MID 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST. 34/JFB

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z ISSUANCE. PREDOMINATE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. MID LEVEL CIGS WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED TO BROKEN
STRATUS WITH BASES OF 3000-3500 FT AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. 34/JFB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 510 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AS THE EASTERN STATES TROUGH
CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO BUILDING SFC HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE AREA...MAINTAINING THE COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS. HIGH
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...HOWEVER NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED. HIGHS TODAY WILL AGAIN BE
BELOW NORMAL IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S INLAND TO LOW/MID 60S
ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL AGAIN FALL INTO THE UPPER
30S INLAND TO MID 40S ALONG THE COAST. 13/JC

(SUNDAY AND MONDAY)...SUNDAY VERY SIMILAR TO SATURDAY BUT 5 TO 10
DEGREES WARMER AS THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SHIFTS JUST EAST OF THE
FCST AREA. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH SKIES
REMAINING PARTLY CLOUDY AND NO RAIN EXPECTED. SUNDAY NIGHT THE RIDGE
TO THE EAST WEAKENS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
AND ALABAMA FROM THE NORTH. STILL NO RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT
INCREASING CLOUD COVER. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S. ON MONDAY THE COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH INTO THE FCST AREA...AND
WITH SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES ALOFT MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
BOUNDARY...LOOK FOR A RETURN OF A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BY MONDAY EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS MONDAY MOSTLY IN THE LOW TO
MID 70S. 12/DS

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...THE WEAK SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL STALL OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH LATE WEEK...WITH SFC
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING WEST ACROSS THE GULF TO THE SOUTH. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN A MOIST ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. COMBINATION OF
THE LOLVL MOISTURE AND WEAK SFC CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WEAKENING FRONT...PLUS THE CONTINUED PASSAGE OF A FEW DISTURBANCES
ALOFT...WITH MAINTAIN A UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH
FRIDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. PCPN
PATTERN BECOMES SOMEWHAT DIURNAL IN NATURE...WITH BEST RAIN CHANCES
DURING THE DAYTIME AND EARLY EVENING HOURS AND LOWER RAIN CHANCES AT
NIGHT. MAX TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY... APPROACHING LOWER 80S SOME LOCATIONS BY FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S TUESDAY NIGHT...AND THEN IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S OVERNIGHT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. 12/DS

MARINE...MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA BY NEXT WEEK WITH A LIGHT ONSHORE
FLOW DEVELOPING DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. 13/JC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      65  43  67  58  74 /  10  05  05  10  40
PENSACOLA   64  45  65  59  75 /  10  05  00  10  30
DESTIN      62  47  63  59  72 /  10  05  00  10  30
EVERGREEN   60  36  67  52  77 /  10  05  05  10  40
WAYNESBORO  61  40  71  54  76 /  10  05  05  10  40
CAMDEN      58  38  68  54  76 /  20  05  05  10  40
CRESTVIEW   64  37  66  50  76 /  10  05  00  10  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 281652 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1152 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...EXTENSIVE MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...AS A SHORTWAVE
OVER THE MIDSOUTH ROUNDS THE BASE OF A AMPLIFIED TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS. THIS FEATURE IS ALSO RESULTING IN SOME VERY LIGHT
PATCHY PRECIP ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MS THIS MORNING AND THE
LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR INDICATE THAT ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS AREAS SUCH AS BUTLER...
THOMASVILLE...AND CAMDEN. FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO INCREASE CLOUD
COVER THIS AFTERNOON AND INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THOSE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 50S WELL INLAND
WITH LOW TO MID 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST. 34/JFB

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z ISSUANCE. PREDOMINATE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. MID LEVEL CIGS WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED TO BROKEN
STRATUS WITH BASES OF 3000-3500 FT AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. 34/JFB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 510 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AS THE EASTERN STATES TROUGH
CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO BUILDING SFC HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE AREA...MAINTAINING THE COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS. HIGH
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...HOWEVER NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED. HIGHS TODAY WILL AGAIN BE
BELOW NORMAL IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S INLAND TO LOW/MID 60S
ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL AGAIN FALL INTO THE UPPER
30S INLAND TO MID 40S ALONG THE COAST. 13/JC

(SUNDAY AND MONDAY)...SUNDAY VERY SIMILAR TO SATURDAY BUT 5 TO 10
DEGREES WARMER AS THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SHIFTS JUST EAST OF THE
FCST AREA. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH SKIES
REMAINING PARTLY CLOUDY AND NO RAIN EXPECTED. SUNDAY NIGHT THE RIDGE
TO THE EAST WEAKENS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
AND ALABAMA FROM THE NORTH. STILL NO RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT
INCREASING CLOUD COVER. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S. ON MONDAY THE COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH INTO THE FCST AREA...AND
WITH SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES ALOFT MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
BOUNDARY...LOOK FOR A RETURN OF A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BY MONDAY EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS MONDAY MOSTLY IN THE LOW TO
MID 70S. 12/DS

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...THE WEAK SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL STALL OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH LATE WEEK...WITH SFC
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING WEST ACROSS THE GULF TO THE SOUTH. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN A MOIST ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. COMBINATION OF
THE LOLVL MOISTURE AND WEAK SFC CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WEAKENING FRONT...PLUS THE CONTINUED PASSAGE OF A FEW DISTURBANCES
ALOFT...WITH MAINTAIN A UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH
FRIDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. PCPN
PATTERN BECOMES SOMEWHAT DIURNAL IN NATURE...WITH BEST RAIN CHANCES
DURING THE DAYTIME AND EARLY EVENING HOURS AND LOWER RAIN CHANCES AT
NIGHT. MAX TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY... APPROACHING LOWER 80S SOME LOCATIONS BY FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S TUESDAY NIGHT...AND THEN IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S OVERNIGHT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. 12/DS

MARINE...MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA BY NEXT WEEK WITH A LIGHT ONSHORE
FLOW DEVELOPING DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. 13/JC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      65  43  67  58  74 /  10  05  05  10  40
PENSACOLA   64  45  65  59  75 /  10  05  00  10  30
DESTIN      62  47  63  59  72 /  10  05  00  10  30
EVERGREEN   60  36  67  52  77 /  10  05  05  10  40
WAYNESBORO  61  40  71  54  76 /  10  05  05  10  40
CAMDEN      58  38  68  54  76 /  20  05  05  10  40
CRESTVIEW   64  37  66  50  76 /  10  05  00  10  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMOB 281652 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1152 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...EXTENSIVE MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...AS A SHORTWAVE
OVER THE MIDSOUTH ROUNDS THE BASE OF A AMPLIFIED TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS. THIS FEATURE IS ALSO RESULTING IN SOME VERY LIGHT
PATCHY PRECIP ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MS THIS MORNING AND THE
LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR INDICATE THAT ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS AREAS SUCH AS BUTLER...
THOMASVILLE...AND CAMDEN. FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO INCREASE CLOUD
COVER THIS AFTERNOON AND INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THOSE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 50S WELL INLAND
WITH LOW TO MID 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST. 34/JFB

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z ISSUANCE. PREDOMINATE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. MID LEVEL CIGS WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED TO BROKEN
STRATUS WITH BASES OF 3000-3500 FT AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. 34/JFB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 510 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AS THE EASTERN STATES TROUGH
CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO BUILDING SFC HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE AREA...MAINTAINING THE COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS. HIGH
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...HOWEVER NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED. HIGHS TODAY WILL AGAIN BE
BELOW NORMAL IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S INLAND TO LOW/MID 60S
ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL AGAIN FALL INTO THE UPPER
30S INLAND TO MID 40S ALONG THE COAST. 13/JC

(SUNDAY AND MONDAY)...SUNDAY VERY SIMILAR TO SATURDAY BUT 5 TO 10
DEGREES WARMER AS THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SHIFTS JUST EAST OF THE
FCST AREA. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH SKIES
REMAINING PARTLY CLOUDY AND NO RAIN EXPECTED. SUNDAY NIGHT THE RIDGE
TO THE EAST WEAKENS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
AND ALABAMA FROM THE NORTH. STILL NO RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT
INCREASING CLOUD COVER. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S. ON MONDAY THE COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH INTO THE FCST AREA...AND
WITH SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES ALOFT MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
BOUNDARY...LOOK FOR A RETURN OF A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BY MONDAY EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS MONDAY MOSTLY IN THE LOW TO
MID 70S. 12/DS

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...THE WEAK SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL STALL OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH LATE WEEK...WITH SFC
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING WEST ACROSS THE GULF TO THE SOUTH. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN A MOIST ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. COMBINATION OF
THE LOLVL MOISTURE AND WEAK SFC CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WEAKENING FRONT...PLUS THE CONTINUED PASSAGE OF A FEW DISTURBANCES
ALOFT...WITH MAINTAIN A UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH
FRIDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. PCPN
PATTERN BECOMES SOMEWHAT DIURNAL IN NATURE...WITH BEST RAIN CHANCES
DURING THE DAYTIME AND EARLY EVENING HOURS AND LOWER RAIN CHANCES AT
NIGHT. MAX TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY... APPROACHING LOWER 80S SOME LOCATIONS BY FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S TUESDAY NIGHT...AND THEN IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S OVERNIGHT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. 12/DS

MARINE...MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA BY NEXT WEEK WITH A LIGHT ONSHORE
FLOW DEVELOPING DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. 13/JC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      65  43  67  58  74 /  10  05  05  10  40
PENSACOLA   64  45  65  59  75 /  10  05  00  10  30
DESTIN      62  47  63  59  72 /  10  05  00  10  30
EVERGREEN   60  36  67  52  77 /  10  05  05  10  40
WAYNESBORO  61  40  71  54  76 /  10  05  05  10  40
CAMDEN      58  38  68  54  76 /  20  05  05  10  40
CRESTVIEW   64  37  66  50  76 /  10  05  00  10  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 281010
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
510 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AS THE EASTERN STATES TROUGH
CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO BUILDING SFC HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE AREA...MAINTAINING THE COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS. HIGH
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...HOWEVER NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED. HIGHS TODAY WILL AGAIN BE
BELOW NORMAL IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S INLAND TO LOW/MID 60S
ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL AGAIN FALL INTO THE UPPER
30S INLAND TO MID 40S ALONG THE COAST. 13/JC

(SUNDAY AND MONDAY)...SUNDAY VERY SIMILAR TO SATURDAY BUT 5 TO 10
DEGREES WARMER AS THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SHIFTS JUST EAST OF THE
FCST AREA. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH SKIES
REMAINING PARTLY CLOUDY AND NO RAIN EXPECTED. SUNDAY NIGHT THE RIDGE
TO THE EAST WEAKENS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
AND ALABAMA FROM THE NORTH. STILL NO RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT
INCREASING CLOUD COVER. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S. ON MONDAY THE COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH INTO THE FCST AREA...AND
WITH SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES ALOFT MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
BOUNDARY...LOOK FOR A RETURN OF A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BY MONDAY EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS MONDAY MOSTLY IN THE LOW TO
MID 70S. 12/DS

&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...THE WEAK SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL STALL OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH LATE WEEK...WITH SFC
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING WEST ACROSS THE GULF TO THE SOUTH. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN A MOIST ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. COMBINATION OF
THE LOLVL MOISTURE AND WEAK SFC CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WEAKENING FRONT...PLUS THE CONTINUED PASSAGE OF A FEW DISTURBANCES
ALOFT...WITH MAINTAIN A UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH
FRIDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. PCPN
PATTERN BECOMES SOMEWHAT DIURNAL IN NATURE...WITH BEST RAIN CHANCES
DURING THE DAYTIME AND EARLY EVENING HOURS AND LOWER RAIN CHANCES AT
NIGHT. MAX TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY... APPROACHING LOWER 80S SOME LOCATIONS BY FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S TUESDAY NIGHT...AND THEN IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S OVERNIGHT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. 12/DS

&&

.AVIATION...12Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. 13/JC

&&

.MARINE...MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA BY NEXT WEEK WITH A LIGHT ONSHORE
FLOW DEVELOPING DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. 13/JC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      65  43  67  58  74 /  10  05  05  10  40
PENSACOLA   64  45  65  59  75 /  10  05  00  10  30
DESTIN      62  47  63  59  72 /  10  05  00  10  30
EVERGREEN   60  36  67  52  77 /  10  05  05  10  40
WAYNESBORO  62  40  71  54  76 /  10  05  05  10  40
CAMDEN      59  38  68  54  76 /  10  05  05  10  40
CRESTVIEW   64  37  66  50  76 /  10  05  00  10  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMOB 280429 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1129 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.AVIATION...
28.06Z TAF ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST THE NEXT 24 HRS. LIGHT
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS. /10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      40  66  46  69  56 /  00  05  10  10  10
PENSACOLA   43  64  46  66  58 /  00  05  05  05  10
DESTIN      45  63  47  66  59 /  00  05  05  05  10
EVERGREEN   36  61  39  69  51 /  00  05  05  05  10
WAYNESBORO  36  65  41  71  53 /  00  05  10  05  10
CAMDEN      36  60  39  70  53 /  00  05  10  05  10
CRESTVIEW   36  65  41  67  49 /  00  05  05  05  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMOB 280429 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1129 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.AVIATION...
28.06Z TAF ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST THE NEXT 24 HRS. LIGHT
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS. /10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      40  66  46  69  56 /  00  05  10  10  10
PENSACOLA   43  64  46  66  58 /  00  05  05  05  10
DESTIN      45  63  47  66  59 /  00  05  05  05  10
EVERGREEN   36  61  39  69  51 /  00  05  05  05  10
WAYNESBORO  36  65  41  71  53 /  00  05  10  05  10
CAMDEN      36  60  39  70  53 /  00  05  10  05  10
CRESTVIEW   36  65  41  67  49 /  00  05  05  05  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 280429 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1129 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.AVIATION...
28.06Z TAF ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST THE NEXT 24 HRS. LIGHT
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS. /10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      40  66  46  69  56 /  00  05  10  10  10
PENSACOLA   43  64  46  66  58 /  00  05  05  05  10
DESTIN      45  63  47  66  59 /  00  05  05  05  10
EVERGREEN   36  61  39  69  51 /  00  05  05  05  10
WAYNESBORO  36  65  41  71  53 /  00  05  10  05  10
CAMDEN      36  60  39  70  53 /  00  05  10  05  10
CRESTVIEW   36  65  41  67  49 /  00  05  05  05  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMOB 280429 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1129 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.AVIATION...
28.06Z TAF ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST THE NEXT 24 HRS. LIGHT
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS. /10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      40  66  46  69  56 /  00  05  10  10  10
PENSACOLA   43  64  46  66  58 /  00  05  05  05  10
DESTIN      45  63  47  66  59 /  00  05  05  05  10
EVERGREEN   36  61  39  69  51 /  00  05  05  05  10
WAYNESBORO  36  65  41  71  53 /  00  05  10  05  10
CAMDEN      36  60  39  70  53 /  00  05  10  05  10
CRESTVIEW   36  65  41  67  49 /  00  05  05  05  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 272322 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
622 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.AVIATION...
28.00Z TAF ISSUANCE...ALTHOUGH AN AREA OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID
LEVEL CIGS WAS SPILLING SOUTHEAST ACROSS MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA...
BASES AT VFR CATEGORIES. MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS WITH OCCASIONAL
HIGHER GUSTS...EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. /10

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SATURDAY)...THE AXIS OF A LONGWAVE TROF
OVER THE EASTERN STATES MOVES SLOWLY TO NEAR THE EAST COAST THROUGH
SATURDAY...MEANWHILE MAINTAINING A DEEP LAYER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER
THE AREA WITH A LARGE SURFACE HIGH BUILDING INTO THE EASTERN STATES.
DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY ALONG WITH MAINLY MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND
RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 30S INLAND TO LOWER 40S CLOSER TO THE COAST.
HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE SIMILARLY BELOW NORMAL AND MAINLY IN THE
LOWER/MID 60S. /29

(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...A WEAK PERTURBATION IN THE
500 MB FLOW WILL MOVE OUT OF THE REGION LATE SATURDAY. SOME CLOUD
COVER WILL LINGER BUT IT WILL BE FAIRLY DRY BELOW 700 MB SO THIS
FEATURE WON`T PROVIDE MUCH RAINFALL PROSPECTS. BY SUNDAY THE RETURN
FLOW WILL COMMENCE BUT NOT MUCH FORCING WILL BE PRESENT SO DRY
CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND
LOWER 70S SUNDAY. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE 40S AND IN THE 50S
SUNDAY NIGHT. /77

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...ANOTHER COOL FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES ON MONDAY...BECOMING STATIONARY
AND UNDERGOING SLOW FRONTOLYSIS THROUGH MIDWEEK. AS THAT HAPPENS THE
VERTICAL STRUCTURE AND CIRCULATION WILL WEAKEN...AND TEMPERATURE
FIELDS WILL FLATTEN...MEANING ONLY A CHANCE TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN FOR THAT PERIOD STARTING LATE MONDAY AND THAT BEING MAINLY TO
THE NORTH EVEN WITH OCCASIONAL TRANSIENT PERTURBATIONS IN THE UPPER
FLOW. PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL ONLY BE 1.25 OR SO INCHES ALTHOUGH CAPE
WILL CLIMB TO 1200 J/KG. OTHERWISE A RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY REBUILD IN
FROM THE EAST. DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S MONDAY THEN MID 70S
TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY A REBOUND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. LOWS FROM
MID 50S INLAND TO LOWER 60S COASTAL ALL WEEK. /77

MARINE...A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS GRADUALLY DECREASING AND SWITCHING
TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. WILL HAVE SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION
MAINLY FOR THE EVENING HOURS UNTIL THE OFFSHORE FLOW SUBSIDES
SUFFICIENTLY. A LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW
CONTINUES FOR MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. /29

FIRE...A LARGE HIGH WILL BRING COOL AND DRY AIR INTO THE REGION OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE UPPER 20S
MAKING IT MARGINAL RED FLAG CONDITIONS FOR SATURDAY...AND A SLIGHT
REBOUND INTO THE UPPER 30S SUNDAY AFTERNOON. DISPERSION ON SATURDAY
WILL BE IN THE EXCELLENT CATEGORY...75 TO 105 INSIDE A LINE FROM
NEAR CAMDEN TO FRISCO CITY TO ATMORE ALABAMA...TO DESTIN
FLORIDA...AND THEN NORTH TO LUVERNE ALABAMA...AND 40S TO 70S
ELSEWHERE. THESE LOCATIONS ARE APPROXIMATE. ALTHOUGH NONE OF THE
HUMIDITY VALUES MEET RED FLAG CRITERIA...FOR FIRE SAFETY
REASONS...DISPERSION SHOULD BE CONSIDERED FOR PLANNING PURPOSES. NO
FOG EXPECTED. /77

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      40  66  46  69  56 /  05  05  10  10  10
PENSACOLA   43  64  46  66  58 /  00  05  05  05  10
DESTIN      45  63  47  66  59 /  00  05  05  05  10
EVERGREEN   36  61  39  69  51 /  05  05  05  05  10
WAYNESBORO  36  65  41  71  53 /  05  05  10  05  10
CAMDEN      36  60  39  70  53 /  05  05  10  05  10
CRESTVIEW   36  65  41  67  49 /  00  05  05  05  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 272322 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
622 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.AVIATION...
28.00Z TAF ISSUANCE...ALTHOUGH AN AREA OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID
LEVEL CIGS WAS SPILLING SOUTHEAST ACROSS MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA...
BASES AT VFR CATEGORIES. MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS WITH OCCASIONAL
HIGHER GUSTS...EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. /10

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SATURDAY)...THE AXIS OF A LONGWAVE TROF
OVER THE EASTERN STATES MOVES SLOWLY TO NEAR THE EAST COAST THROUGH
SATURDAY...MEANWHILE MAINTAINING A DEEP LAYER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER
THE AREA WITH A LARGE SURFACE HIGH BUILDING INTO THE EASTERN STATES.
DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY ALONG WITH MAINLY MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND
RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 30S INLAND TO LOWER 40S CLOSER TO THE COAST.
HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE SIMILARLY BELOW NORMAL AND MAINLY IN THE
LOWER/MID 60S. /29

(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...A WEAK PERTURBATION IN THE
500 MB FLOW WILL MOVE OUT OF THE REGION LATE SATURDAY. SOME CLOUD
COVER WILL LINGER BUT IT WILL BE FAIRLY DRY BELOW 700 MB SO THIS
FEATURE WON`T PROVIDE MUCH RAINFALL PROSPECTS. BY SUNDAY THE RETURN
FLOW WILL COMMENCE BUT NOT MUCH FORCING WILL BE PRESENT SO DRY
CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND
LOWER 70S SUNDAY. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE 40S AND IN THE 50S
SUNDAY NIGHT. /77

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...ANOTHER COOL FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES ON MONDAY...BECOMING STATIONARY
AND UNDERGOING SLOW FRONTOLYSIS THROUGH MIDWEEK. AS THAT HAPPENS THE
VERTICAL STRUCTURE AND CIRCULATION WILL WEAKEN...AND TEMPERATURE
FIELDS WILL FLATTEN...MEANING ONLY A CHANCE TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN FOR THAT PERIOD STARTING LATE MONDAY AND THAT BEING MAINLY TO
THE NORTH EVEN WITH OCCASIONAL TRANSIENT PERTURBATIONS IN THE UPPER
FLOW. PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL ONLY BE 1.25 OR SO INCHES ALTHOUGH CAPE
WILL CLIMB TO 1200 J/KG. OTHERWISE A RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY REBUILD IN
FROM THE EAST. DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S MONDAY THEN MID 70S
TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY A REBOUND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. LOWS FROM
MID 50S INLAND TO LOWER 60S COASTAL ALL WEEK. /77

MARINE...A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS GRADUALLY DECREASING AND SWITCHING
TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. WILL HAVE SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION
MAINLY FOR THE EVENING HOURS UNTIL THE OFFSHORE FLOW SUBSIDES
SUFFICIENTLY. A LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW
CONTINUES FOR MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. /29

FIRE...A LARGE HIGH WILL BRING COOL AND DRY AIR INTO THE REGION OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE UPPER 20S
MAKING IT MARGINAL RED FLAG CONDITIONS FOR SATURDAY...AND A SLIGHT
REBOUND INTO THE UPPER 30S SUNDAY AFTERNOON. DISPERSION ON SATURDAY
WILL BE IN THE EXCELLENT CATEGORY...75 TO 105 INSIDE A LINE FROM
NEAR CAMDEN TO FRISCO CITY TO ATMORE ALABAMA...TO DESTIN
FLORIDA...AND THEN NORTH TO LUVERNE ALABAMA...AND 40S TO 70S
ELSEWHERE. THESE LOCATIONS ARE APPROXIMATE. ALTHOUGH NONE OF THE
HUMIDITY VALUES MEET RED FLAG CRITERIA...FOR FIRE SAFETY
REASONS...DISPERSION SHOULD BE CONSIDERED FOR PLANNING PURPOSES. NO
FOG EXPECTED. /77

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      40  66  46  69  56 /  05  05  10  10  10
PENSACOLA   43  64  46  66  58 /  00  05  05  05  10
DESTIN      45  63  47  66  59 /  00  05  05  05  10
EVERGREEN   36  61  39  69  51 /  05  05  05  05  10
WAYNESBORO  36  65  41  71  53 /  05  05  10  05  10
CAMDEN      36  60  39  70  53 /  05  05  10  05  10
CRESTVIEW   36  65  41  67  49 /  00  05  05  05  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMOB 272107
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
407 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SATURDAY)...THE AXIS OF A LONGWAVE TROF
OVER THE EASTERN STATES MOVES SLOWLY TO NEAR THE EAST COAST THROUGH
SATURDAY...MEANWHILE MAINTAINING A DEEP LAYER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER
THE AREA WITH A LARGE SURFACE HIGH BUILDING INTO THE EASTERN STATES.
DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY ALONG WITH MAINLY MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND
RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 30S INLAND TO LOWER 40S CLOSER TO THE COAST.
HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE SIMILARLY BELOW NORMAL AND MAINLY IN THE
LOWER/MID 60S. /29

(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...A WEAK PERTURBATION IN THE
500 MB FLOW WILL MOVE OUT OF THE REGION LATE SATURDAY. SOME CLOUD
COVER WILL LINGER BUT IT WILL BE FAIRLY DRY BELOW 700 MB SO THIS
FEATURE WON`T PROVIDE MUCH RAINFALL PROSPECTS. BY SUNDAY THE RETURN
FLOW WILL COMMENCE BUT NOT MUCH FORCING WILL BE PRESENT SO DRY
CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
IN THE 60S OVER THE ENTIRE AREA ON SATURDAY...UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S
SUNDAY. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE 40S AND IN THE 50S SUNDAY NIGHT.
/77

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...ANOTHER COOL FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES ON MONDAY...BECOMING STATIONARY
AND UNDERGOING SLOW FRONTOLYSIS THROUGH MIDWEEK. AS THAT HAPPENS THE
VERTICAL STRUCTURE AND CIRCULATION WILL WEAKEN...AND TEMPERATURE
FIELDS WILL FLATTEN...MEANING ONLY A CHANCE TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN FOR THAT PERIOD STARTING LATE MONDAY AND THAT BEING MAINLY TO
THE NORTH EVEN WITH OCCASIONAL TRANSIENT PERTURBATIONS IN THE UPPER
FLOW. PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL ONLY BE 1.25 OR SO INCHES ALTHOUGH CAPE
WILL CLIMB TO 1200 J/KG. OTHERWISE A RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY REBUILD IN
FROM THE EAST. DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S MONDAY THEN MID 70S
TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY A REBOUND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. LOWS FROM
MID 50S INLAND TO LOWER 60S COASTAL ALL WEEK. /77

&&

.MARINE...A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS GRADUALLY DECREASING AND SWITCHING
TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. WILL HAVE SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION
MAINLY FOR THE EVENING HOURS UNTIL THE OFFSHORE FLOW SUBSIDES
SUFFICIENTLY. A LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW
CONTINUES FOR MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. /29

&&

.AVIATION...18Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS NEAR 15 MPH DECREASES TO 5-10 MPH BY
EARLY THIS EVENING THEN BECOMES WESTERLY BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. /29

&&

.FIRE...A LARGE HIGH WILL BRING COOL AND DRY AIR INTO THE REGION
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE UPPER
20S MAKING IT MARGINAL RED FLAG CONDITIONS FOR SATURDAY...AND A
SLIGHT REBOUND INTO THE UPPER 30S SUNDAY AFTERNOON. DISPERSION ON
SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE EXCELLENT CATEGORY....75 TO 105 INSIDE A LINE
FROM NEAR CAMDEN TO FRISCO CITY TO ATMORE ALABAMA...TO DESTIN
FLORIDA...AND THEN NORTH TO LUVERNE ALABAMA...AND 40S TO 70S
ELSEWHERE. THESE LOCATIONS ARE APPROXIMATE. ALTHOUGH NONE OF THE
HUMIDITY VALUES MEET RED FLAG CRITERIA...FOR FIRE SAFETY
REASONS...DISPERSION SHOULD BE CONSIDERED FOR PLANNING PURPOSES. NO
FOG EXPECTED. /77

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      40  66  46  69  56 /  05  05  10  10  10
PENSACOLA   43  64  46  66  58 /  00  05  05  05  10
DESTIN      45  63  47  66  59 /  00  05  05  05  10
EVERGREEN   36  61  39  69  51 /  05  05  05  05  10
WAYNESBORO  36  65  41  71  53 /  05  05  10  05  10
CAMDEN      36  60  39  70  53 /  05  05  10  05  10
CRESTVIEW   36  65  41  67  49 /  00  05  05  05  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 272107
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
407 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SATURDAY)...THE AXIS OF A LONGWAVE TROF
OVER THE EASTERN STATES MOVES SLOWLY TO NEAR THE EAST COAST THROUGH
SATURDAY...MEANWHILE MAINTAINING A DEEP LAYER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER
THE AREA WITH A LARGE SURFACE HIGH BUILDING INTO THE EASTERN STATES.
DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY ALONG WITH MAINLY MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND
RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 30S INLAND TO LOWER 40S CLOSER TO THE COAST.
HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE SIMILARLY BELOW NORMAL AND MAINLY IN THE
LOWER/MID 60S. /29

(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...A WEAK PERTURBATION IN THE
500 MB FLOW WILL MOVE OUT OF THE REGION LATE SATURDAY. SOME CLOUD
COVER WILL LINGER BUT IT WILL BE FAIRLY DRY BELOW 700 MB SO THIS
FEATURE WON`T PROVIDE MUCH RAINFALL PROSPECTS. BY SUNDAY THE RETURN
FLOW WILL COMMENCE BUT NOT MUCH FORCING WILL BE PRESENT SO DRY
CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
IN THE 60S OVER THE ENTIRE AREA ON SATURDAY...UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S
SUNDAY. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE 40S AND IN THE 50S SUNDAY NIGHT.
/77

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...ANOTHER COOL FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES ON MONDAY...BECOMING STATIONARY
AND UNDERGOING SLOW FRONTOLYSIS THROUGH MIDWEEK. AS THAT HAPPENS THE
VERTICAL STRUCTURE AND CIRCULATION WILL WEAKEN...AND TEMPERATURE
FIELDS WILL FLATTEN...MEANING ONLY A CHANCE TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN FOR THAT PERIOD STARTING LATE MONDAY AND THAT BEING MAINLY TO
THE NORTH EVEN WITH OCCASIONAL TRANSIENT PERTURBATIONS IN THE UPPER
FLOW. PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL ONLY BE 1.25 OR SO INCHES ALTHOUGH CAPE
WILL CLIMB TO 1200 J/KG. OTHERWISE A RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY REBUILD IN
FROM THE EAST. DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S MONDAY THEN MID 70S
TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY A REBOUND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. LOWS FROM
MID 50S INLAND TO LOWER 60S COASTAL ALL WEEK. /77

&&

.MARINE...A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS GRADUALLY DECREASING AND SWITCHING
TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. WILL HAVE SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION
MAINLY FOR THE EVENING HOURS UNTIL THE OFFSHORE FLOW SUBSIDES
SUFFICIENTLY. A LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW
CONTINUES FOR MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. /29

&&

.AVIATION...18Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS NEAR 15 MPH DECREASES TO 5-10 MPH BY
EARLY THIS EVENING THEN BECOMES WESTERLY BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. /29

&&

.FIRE...A LARGE HIGH WILL BRING COOL AND DRY AIR INTO THE REGION
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE UPPER
20S MAKING IT MARGINAL RED FLAG CONDITIONS FOR SATURDAY...AND A
SLIGHT REBOUND INTO THE UPPER 30S SUNDAY AFTERNOON. DISPERSION ON
SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE EXCELLENT CATEGORY....75 TO 105 INSIDE A LINE
FROM NEAR CAMDEN TO FRISCO CITY TO ATMORE ALABAMA...TO DESTIN
FLORIDA...AND THEN NORTH TO LUVERNE ALABAMA...AND 40S TO 70S
ELSEWHERE. THESE LOCATIONS ARE APPROXIMATE. ALTHOUGH NONE OF THE
HUMIDITY VALUES MEET RED FLAG CRITERIA...FOR FIRE SAFETY
REASONS...DISPERSION SHOULD BE CONSIDERED FOR PLANNING PURPOSES. NO
FOG EXPECTED. /77

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      40  66  46  69  56 /  05  05  10  10  10
PENSACOLA   43  64  46  66  58 /  00  05  05  05  10
DESTIN      45  63  47  66  59 /  00  05  05  05  10
EVERGREEN   36  61  39  69  51 /  05  05  05  05  10
WAYNESBORO  36  65  41  71  53 /  05  05  10  05  10
CAMDEN      36  60  39  70  53 /  05  05  10  05  10
CRESTVIEW   36  65  41  67  49 /  00  05  05  05  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMOB 271706 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1206 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...WILL UPDATE TO REMOVE MORNING CLOUD WORDING WITH SUNNY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. MADE OTHER MOSTLY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.  UPDATE OUT SOON. /29

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS NEAR 15 MPH DECREASES TO 5-10 MPH BY EARLY
THIS EVENING THEN BECOMES WESTERLY BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. /29

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 439 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...A COLD FRONT JUST ENTERING
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA WILL RAPIDLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
AREA THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE EASTERN
STATES. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE MOVING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF COAST. THEY WILL BE ALMOST OUT OF THE AREA
BY DAYBREAK AND WILL NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH. SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM THE
NORTHWEST THIS MORNING AS A DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS MOVES INTO THE
AREA. A SHORTWAVE MOVING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...DRY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. HIGHS TODAY WILL ONLY REACH THE LOW 60S
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES WITH MID AND UPPER 60S ALONG THE COAST.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE MUCH COLDER THAN WE HAVE SEEN LATELY
WITH LOWS IN THE MID 30S INLAND TO UPPER 40S ALONG THE COAST. 13/JC

(SATURDAY AND SUNDAY)...A SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL DRIFT EAST
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. UPPER TROF MOVING JUST EAST OF
THE AREA ON SATURDAY...BUT A WEAK PIECE OF ENERGY ALOFT WILL SWING
DOWN ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ALABAMA DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.
THIS WILL MAINTAIN SOME CLOUD COVER ON SATURDAY...BUT LOWER LEVELS
WILL BE FAIRLY DRY SO WE WILL NOT BE PUTTING ANY RAINFALL IN THE FCST
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE. BY SUNDAY FCST AREA WILL BE ON THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE SFC RIDGE WITH GULF RETURN FLOW BEGINNING BUT NO
REAL DYNAMICS ALOFT SO DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY. HIGH
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN THE 60S OVER THE ENTIRE AREA ON
SATURDAY...BUT MODERATING SLIGHTLY TO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S
ON SUNDAY WITH THE RETURN FLOW. LOW TEMPS SATURDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN
THE 40S. 12/DS

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...ANOTHER WEAK SFC FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON MONDAY...STALLING AND GRADUALLY
DISSIPATING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
GRADUALLY REBUILDS IN FROM THE EAST. WITH THE WEAKENING SFC BOUNDARY
AND OCCASIONAL DISTURBANCES IN THE UPPER FLOW MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION...AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. DAYTIME MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...APPROACHING LOWER 80S SOME LOCATIONS BY THURSDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM MID 50S INLAND TO LOWER 60S COASTAL EACH
NIGHT. 12/DS

MARINE...STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT THIS MORNING AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT.
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. A LIGHT SOUTHERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS EARLY NEXT WEEK AND CONTINUES THROUGH MIDWEEK. 13/JC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      67  41  66  47  68 /  10  00  00  10  10
PENSACOLA   67  45  65  47  66 /  10  00  00  10  10
DESTIN      67  47  63  50  63 /  10  00  05  10  05
EVERGREEN   63  37  62  40  70 /  10  00  00  05  05
WAYNESBORO  64  36  64  43  71 /  10  00  10  10  10
CAMDEN      62  37  62  41  71 /  10  00  10  10  05
CRESTVIEW   66  38  65  41  67 /  10  00  00  10  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY-COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA
     FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA
     MS OUT 20 NM-MISSISSIPPI SOUND-NORTHERN MOBILE BAY-
     PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM-PERDIDO BAY-SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR WATERS
     FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM
     PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 271706 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1206 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...WILL UPDATE TO REMOVE MORNING CLOUD WORDING WITH SUNNY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. MADE OTHER MOSTLY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.  UPDATE OUT SOON. /29

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS NEAR 15 MPH DECREASES TO 5-10 MPH BY EARLY
THIS EVENING THEN BECOMES WESTERLY BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. /29

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 439 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...A COLD FRONT JUST ENTERING
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA WILL RAPIDLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
AREA THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE EASTERN
STATES. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE MOVING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF COAST. THEY WILL BE ALMOST OUT OF THE AREA
BY DAYBREAK AND WILL NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH. SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM THE
NORTHWEST THIS MORNING AS A DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS MOVES INTO THE
AREA. A SHORTWAVE MOVING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...DRY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. HIGHS TODAY WILL ONLY REACH THE LOW 60S
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES WITH MID AND UPPER 60S ALONG THE COAST.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE MUCH COLDER THAN WE HAVE SEEN LATELY
WITH LOWS IN THE MID 30S INLAND TO UPPER 40S ALONG THE COAST. 13/JC

(SATURDAY AND SUNDAY)...A SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL DRIFT EAST
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. UPPER TROF MOVING JUST EAST OF
THE AREA ON SATURDAY...BUT A WEAK PIECE OF ENERGY ALOFT WILL SWING
DOWN ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ALABAMA DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.
THIS WILL MAINTAIN SOME CLOUD COVER ON SATURDAY...BUT LOWER LEVELS
WILL BE FAIRLY DRY SO WE WILL NOT BE PUTTING ANY RAINFALL IN THE FCST
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE. BY SUNDAY FCST AREA WILL BE ON THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE SFC RIDGE WITH GULF RETURN FLOW BEGINNING BUT NO
REAL DYNAMICS ALOFT SO DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY. HIGH
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN THE 60S OVER THE ENTIRE AREA ON
SATURDAY...BUT MODERATING SLIGHTLY TO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S
ON SUNDAY WITH THE RETURN FLOW. LOW TEMPS SATURDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN
THE 40S. 12/DS

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...ANOTHER WEAK SFC FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON MONDAY...STALLING AND GRADUALLY
DISSIPATING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
GRADUALLY REBUILDS IN FROM THE EAST. WITH THE WEAKENING SFC BOUNDARY
AND OCCASIONAL DISTURBANCES IN THE UPPER FLOW MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION...AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. DAYTIME MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...APPROACHING LOWER 80S SOME LOCATIONS BY THURSDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM MID 50S INLAND TO LOWER 60S COASTAL EACH
NIGHT. 12/DS

MARINE...STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT THIS MORNING AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT.
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. A LIGHT SOUTHERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS EARLY NEXT WEEK AND CONTINUES THROUGH MIDWEEK. 13/JC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      67  41  66  47  68 /  10  00  00  10  10
PENSACOLA   67  45  65  47  66 /  10  00  00  10  10
DESTIN      67  47  63  50  63 /  10  00  05  10  05
EVERGREEN   63  37  62  40  70 /  10  00  00  05  05
WAYNESBORO  64  36  64  43  71 /  10  00  10  10  10
CAMDEN      62  37  62  41  71 /  10  00  10  10  05
CRESTVIEW   66  38  65  41  67 /  10  00  00  10  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY-COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA
     FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA
     MS OUT 20 NM-MISSISSIPPI SOUND-NORTHERN MOBILE BAY-
     PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM-PERDIDO BAY-SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR WATERS
     FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM
     PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMOB 271706 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1206 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...WILL UPDATE TO REMOVE MORNING CLOUD WORDING WITH SUNNY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. MADE OTHER MOSTLY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.  UPDATE OUT SOON. /29

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS NEAR 15 MPH DECREASES TO 5-10 MPH BY EARLY
THIS EVENING THEN BECOMES WESTERLY BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. /29

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 439 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...A COLD FRONT JUST ENTERING
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA WILL RAPIDLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
AREA THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE EASTERN
STATES. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE MOVING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF COAST. THEY WILL BE ALMOST OUT OF THE AREA
BY DAYBREAK AND WILL NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH. SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM THE
NORTHWEST THIS MORNING AS A DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS MOVES INTO THE
AREA. A SHORTWAVE MOVING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...DRY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. HIGHS TODAY WILL ONLY REACH THE LOW 60S
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES WITH MID AND UPPER 60S ALONG THE COAST.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE MUCH COLDER THAN WE HAVE SEEN LATELY
WITH LOWS IN THE MID 30S INLAND TO UPPER 40S ALONG THE COAST. 13/JC

(SATURDAY AND SUNDAY)...A SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL DRIFT EAST
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. UPPER TROF MOVING JUST EAST OF
THE AREA ON SATURDAY...BUT A WEAK PIECE OF ENERGY ALOFT WILL SWING
DOWN ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ALABAMA DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.
THIS WILL MAINTAIN SOME CLOUD COVER ON SATURDAY...BUT LOWER LEVELS
WILL BE FAIRLY DRY SO WE WILL NOT BE PUTTING ANY RAINFALL IN THE FCST
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE. BY SUNDAY FCST AREA WILL BE ON THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE SFC RIDGE WITH GULF RETURN FLOW BEGINNING BUT NO
REAL DYNAMICS ALOFT SO DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY. HIGH
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN THE 60S OVER THE ENTIRE AREA ON
SATURDAY...BUT MODERATING SLIGHTLY TO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S
ON SUNDAY WITH THE RETURN FLOW. LOW TEMPS SATURDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN
THE 40S. 12/DS

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...ANOTHER WEAK SFC FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON MONDAY...STALLING AND GRADUALLY
DISSIPATING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
GRADUALLY REBUILDS IN FROM THE EAST. WITH THE WEAKENING SFC BOUNDARY
AND OCCASIONAL DISTURBANCES IN THE UPPER FLOW MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION...AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. DAYTIME MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...APPROACHING LOWER 80S SOME LOCATIONS BY THURSDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM MID 50S INLAND TO LOWER 60S COASTAL EACH
NIGHT. 12/DS

MARINE...STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT THIS MORNING AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT.
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. A LIGHT SOUTHERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS EARLY NEXT WEEK AND CONTINUES THROUGH MIDWEEK. 13/JC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      67  41  66  47  68 /  10  00  00  10  10
PENSACOLA   67  45  65  47  66 /  10  00  00  10  10
DESTIN      67  47  63  50  63 /  10  00  05  10  05
EVERGREEN   63  37  62  40  70 /  10  00  00  05  05
WAYNESBORO  64  36  64  43  71 /  10  00  10  10  10
CAMDEN      62  37  62  41  71 /  10  00  10  10  05
CRESTVIEW   66  38  65  41  67 /  10  00  00  10  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY-COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA
     FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA
     MS OUT 20 NM-MISSISSIPPI SOUND-NORTHERN MOBILE BAY-
     PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM-PERDIDO BAY-SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR WATERS
     FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM
     PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMOB 271706 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1206 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...WILL UPDATE TO REMOVE MORNING CLOUD WORDING WITH SUNNY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. MADE OTHER MOSTLY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.  UPDATE OUT SOON. /29

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS NEAR 15 MPH DECREASES TO 5-10 MPH BY EARLY
THIS EVENING THEN BECOMES WESTERLY BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. /29

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 439 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...A COLD FRONT JUST ENTERING
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA WILL RAPIDLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
AREA THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE EASTERN
STATES. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE MOVING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF COAST. THEY WILL BE ALMOST OUT OF THE AREA
BY DAYBREAK AND WILL NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH. SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM THE
NORTHWEST THIS MORNING AS A DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS MOVES INTO THE
AREA. A SHORTWAVE MOVING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...DRY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. HIGHS TODAY WILL ONLY REACH THE LOW 60S
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES WITH MID AND UPPER 60S ALONG THE COAST.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE MUCH COLDER THAN WE HAVE SEEN LATELY
WITH LOWS IN THE MID 30S INLAND TO UPPER 40S ALONG THE COAST. 13/JC

(SATURDAY AND SUNDAY)...A SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL DRIFT EAST
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. UPPER TROF MOVING JUST EAST OF
THE AREA ON SATURDAY...BUT A WEAK PIECE OF ENERGY ALOFT WILL SWING
DOWN ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ALABAMA DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.
THIS WILL MAINTAIN SOME CLOUD COVER ON SATURDAY...BUT LOWER LEVELS
WILL BE FAIRLY DRY SO WE WILL NOT BE PUTTING ANY RAINFALL IN THE FCST
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE. BY SUNDAY FCST AREA WILL BE ON THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE SFC RIDGE WITH GULF RETURN FLOW BEGINNING BUT NO
REAL DYNAMICS ALOFT SO DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY. HIGH
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN THE 60S OVER THE ENTIRE AREA ON
SATURDAY...BUT MODERATING SLIGHTLY TO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S
ON SUNDAY WITH THE RETURN FLOW. LOW TEMPS SATURDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN
THE 40S. 12/DS

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...ANOTHER WEAK SFC FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON MONDAY...STALLING AND GRADUALLY
DISSIPATING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
GRADUALLY REBUILDS IN FROM THE EAST. WITH THE WEAKENING SFC BOUNDARY
AND OCCASIONAL DISTURBANCES IN THE UPPER FLOW MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION...AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. DAYTIME MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...APPROACHING LOWER 80S SOME LOCATIONS BY THURSDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM MID 50S INLAND TO LOWER 60S COASTAL EACH
NIGHT. 12/DS

MARINE...STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT THIS MORNING AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT.
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. A LIGHT SOUTHERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS EARLY NEXT WEEK AND CONTINUES THROUGH MIDWEEK. 13/JC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      67  41  66  47  68 /  10  00  00  10  10
PENSACOLA   67  45  65  47  66 /  10  00  00  10  10
DESTIN      67  47  63  50  63 /  10  00  05  10  05
EVERGREEN   63  37  62  40  70 /  10  00  00  05  05
WAYNESBORO  64  36  64  43  71 /  10  00  10  10  10
CAMDEN      62  37  62  41  71 /  10  00  10  10  05
CRESTVIEW   66  38  65  41  67 /  10  00  00  10  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY-COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA
     FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA
     MS OUT 20 NM-MISSISSIPPI SOUND-NORTHERN MOBILE BAY-
     PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM-PERDIDO BAY-SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR WATERS
     FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM
     PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 270939
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
439 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...A COLD FRONT JUST ENTERING
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA WILL RAPIDLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
AREA THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE EASTERN
STATES. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE MOVING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF COAST. THEY WILL BE ALMOST OUT OF THE AREA
BY DAYBREAK AND WILL NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH. SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM THE
NORTHWEST THIS MORNING AS A DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS MOVES INTO THE
AREA. A SHORTWAVE MOVING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...DRY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. HIGHS TODAY WILL ONLY REACH THE LOW 60S
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES WITH MID AND UPPER 60S ALONG THE COAST.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE MUCH COLDER THAN WE HAVE SEEN LATELY
WITH LOWS IN THE MID 30S INLAND TO UPPER 40S ALONG THE COAST. 13/JC

(SATURDAY AND SUNDAY)...A SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL DRIFT EAST
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. UPPER TROF MOVING JUST EAST OF
THE AREA ON SATURDAY...BUT A WEAK PIECE OF ENERGY ALOFT WILL SWING
DOWN ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ALABAMA DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.
THIS WILL MAINTAIN SOME CLOUD COVER ON SATURDAY...BUT LOWER LEVELS
WILL BE FAIRLY DRY SO WE WILL NOT BE PUTTING ANY RAINFALL IN THE FCST
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE. BY SUNDAY FCST AREA WILL BE ON THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE SFC RIDGE WITH GULF RETURN FLOW BEGINNING BUT NO
REAL DYNAMICS ALOFT SO DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY. HIGH
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN THE 60S OVER THE ENTIRE AREA ON
SATURDAY...BUT MODERATING SLIGHTLY TO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S
ON SUNDAY WITH THE RETURN FLOW. LOW TEMPS SATURDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN
THE 40S. 12/DS

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...ANOTHER WEAK SFC FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON MONDAY...STALLING AND GRADUALLY
DISSIPATING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
GRADUALLY REBUILDS IN FROM THE EAST. WITH THE WEAKENING SFC BOUNDARY
AND OCCASIONAL DISTURBANCES IN THE UPPER FLOW MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION...AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. DAYTIME MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...APPROACHING LOWER 80S SOME LOCATIONS BY THURSDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM MID 50S INLAND TO LOWER 60S COASTAL EACH
NIGHT. 12/DS

&&

.MARINE...STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT THIS MORNING AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT.
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. A LIGHT SOUTHERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS EARLY NEXT WEEK AND CONTINUES THROUGH MIDWEEK. 13/JC

&&

.AVIATION...27.12Z ISSUANCE...IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MID-MORNING IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP
BY LATE MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
13/JC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      67  41  66  47  68 /  10  00  00  10  10
PENSACOLA   67  45  65  47  66 /  10  00  00  10  10
DESTIN      67  47  63  50  63 /  10  00  05  10  05
EVERGREEN   63  37  62  40  70 /  10  00  00  05  05
WAYNESBORO  64  36  64  43  71 /  10  00  10  10  10
CAMDEN      62  37  62  41  71 /  10  00  10  10  05
CRESTVIEW   66  38  65  41  67 /  10  00  00  10  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY-COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA
     FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA
     MS OUT 20 NM-MISSISSIPPI SOUND-NORTHERN MOBILE BAY-
     PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM-PERDIDO BAY-SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR WATERS
     FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM
     PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMOB 270939
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
439 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...A COLD FRONT JUST ENTERING
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA WILL RAPIDLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
AREA THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE EASTERN
STATES. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE MOVING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF COAST. THEY WILL BE ALMOST OUT OF THE AREA
BY DAYBREAK AND WILL NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH. SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM THE
NORTHWEST THIS MORNING AS A DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS MOVES INTO THE
AREA. A SHORTWAVE MOVING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...DRY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. HIGHS TODAY WILL ONLY REACH THE LOW 60S
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES WITH MID AND UPPER 60S ALONG THE COAST.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE MUCH COLDER THAN WE HAVE SEEN LATELY
WITH LOWS IN THE MID 30S INLAND TO UPPER 40S ALONG THE COAST. 13/JC

(SATURDAY AND SUNDAY)...A SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL DRIFT EAST
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. UPPER TROF MOVING JUST EAST OF
THE AREA ON SATURDAY...BUT A WEAK PIECE OF ENERGY ALOFT WILL SWING
DOWN ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ALABAMA DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.
THIS WILL MAINTAIN SOME CLOUD COVER ON SATURDAY...BUT LOWER LEVELS
WILL BE FAIRLY DRY SO WE WILL NOT BE PUTTING ANY RAINFALL IN THE FCST
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE. BY SUNDAY FCST AREA WILL BE ON THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE SFC RIDGE WITH GULF RETURN FLOW BEGINNING BUT NO
REAL DYNAMICS ALOFT SO DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY. HIGH
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN THE 60S OVER THE ENTIRE AREA ON
SATURDAY...BUT MODERATING SLIGHTLY TO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S
ON SUNDAY WITH THE RETURN FLOW. LOW TEMPS SATURDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN
THE 40S. 12/DS

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...ANOTHER WEAK SFC FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON MONDAY...STALLING AND GRADUALLY
DISSIPATING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
GRADUALLY REBUILDS IN FROM THE EAST. WITH THE WEAKENING SFC BOUNDARY
AND OCCASIONAL DISTURBANCES IN THE UPPER FLOW MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION...AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. DAYTIME MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...APPROACHING LOWER 80S SOME LOCATIONS BY THURSDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM MID 50S INLAND TO LOWER 60S COASTAL EACH
NIGHT. 12/DS

&&

.MARINE...STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT THIS MORNING AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT.
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. A LIGHT SOUTHERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS EARLY NEXT WEEK AND CONTINUES THROUGH MIDWEEK. 13/JC

&&

.AVIATION...27.12Z ISSUANCE...IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MID-MORNING IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP
BY LATE MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
13/JC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      67  41  66  47  68 /  10  00  00  10  10
PENSACOLA   67  45  65  47  66 /  10  00  00  10  10
DESTIN      67  47  63  50  63 /  10  00  05  10  05
EVERGREEN   63  37  62  40  70 /  10  00  00  05  05
WAYNESBORO  64  36  64  43  71 /  10  00  10  10  10
CAMDEN      62  37  62  41  71 /  10  00  10  10  05
CRESTVIEW   66  38  65  41  67 /  10  00  00  10  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY-COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA
     FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA
     MS OUT 20 NM-MISSISSIPPI SOUND-NORTHERN MOBILE BAY-
     PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM-PERDIDO BAY-SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR WATERS
     FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM
     PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 270455
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1155 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.AVIATION...
27.06Z TAF ISSUANCE...COLD FRONT HAS MOVED EAST ACROSS INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND WILL SOON PASS MOB/BFM AND ACROSS PNS A
SHORT TIME LATER BY 27.08Z...BRINGING A WIND SHIFT WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS BETWEEN 15-20 KNOTS. LATEST OBSERVATIONS UPSTREAM SUGGEST A
BLEND OF IFR/MVFR BASES ARE LIKELY. BACK EDGE OF CIGS WERE POSITIONED
ACROSS WESTERN TENNESSEE TO CENTRAL LOUISIANA. THE CLEARING LINE
FORECAST TO BE MOVING IN BY MID/LATE AM FRIDAY. ISOLATED POCKETS OF
-SHRA LOOK TO BE PASSING MAINLY NORTH OF THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. /10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      48  67  42  63  49 /  40  05  00  05  10
PENSACOLA   52  67  44  61  51 /  50  10  00  05  10
DESTIN      56  67  47  58  52 /  50  10  00  05  10
EVERGREEN   50  63  38  63  44 /  50  05  05  05  10
WAYNESBORO  45  64  39  65  44 /  50  00  00  10  10
CAMDEN      48  62  39  63  42 /  50  10  05  10  10
CRESTVIEW   54  66  39  63  46 /  50  10  00  05  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 1 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR
     CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY-COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA
     FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA
     MS OUT 20 NM-MISSISSIPPI SOUND-NORTHERN MOBILE BAY-
     PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM-PERDIDO BAY-SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 4 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR WATERS
     FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM
     PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 270455
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1155 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.AVIATION...
27.06Z TAF ISSUANCE...COLD FRONT HAS MOVED EAST ACROSS INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND WILL SOON PASS MOB/BFM AND ACROSS PNS A
SHORT TIME LATER BY 27.08Z...BRINGING A WIND SHIFT WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS BETWEEN 15-20 KNOTS. LATEST OBSERVATIONS UPSTREAM SUGGEST A
BLEND OF IFR/MVFR BASES ARE LIKELY. BACK EDGE OF CIGS WERE POSITIONED
ACROSS WESTERN TENNESSEE TO CENTRAL LOUISIANA. THE CLEARING LINE
FORECAST TO BE MOVING IN BY MID/LATE AM FRIDAY. ISOLATED POCKETS OF
-SHRA LOOK TO BE PASSING MAINLY NORTH OF THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. /10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      48  67  42  63  49 /  40  05  00  05  10
PENSACOLA   52  67  44  61  51 /  50  10  00  05  10
DESTIN      56  67  47  58  52 /  50  10  00  05  10
EVERGREEN   50  63  38  63  44 /  50  05  05  05  10
WAYNESBORO  45  64  39  65  44 /  50  00  00  10  10
CAMDEN      48  62  39  63  42 /  50  10  05  10  10
CRESTVIEW   54  66  39  63  46 /  50  10  00  05  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 1 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR
     CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY-COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA
     FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA
     MS OUT 20 NM-MISSISSIPPI SOUND-NORTHERN MOBILE BAY-
     PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM-PERDIDO BAY-SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 4 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR WATERS
     FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM
     PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMOB 270455
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1155 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.AVIATION...
27.06Z TAF ISSUANCE...COLD FRONT HAS MOVED EAST ACROSS INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND WILL SOON PASS MOB/BFM AND ACROSS PNS A
SHORT TIME LATER BY 27.08Z...BRINGING A WIND SHIFT WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS BETWEEN 15-20 KNOTS. LATEST OBSERVATIONS UPSTREAM SUGGEST A
BLEND OF IFR/MVFR BASES ARE LIKELY. BACK EDGE OF CIGS WERE POSITIONED
ACROSS WESTERN TENNESSEE TO CENTRAL LOUISIANA. THE CLEARING LINE
FORECAST TO BE MOVING IN BY MID/LATE AM FRIDAY. ISOLATED POCKETS OF
-SHRA LOOK TO BE PASSING MAINLY NORTH OF THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. /10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      48  67  42  63  49 /  40  05  00  05  10
PENSACOLA   52  67  44  61  51 /  50  10  00  05  10
DESTIN      56  67  47  58  52 /  50  10  00  05  10
EVERGREEN   50  63  38  63  44 /  50  05  05  05  10
WAYNESBORO  45  64  39  65  44 /  50  00  00  10  10
CAMDEN      48  62  39  63  42 /  50  10  05  10  10
CRESTVIEW   54  66  39  63  46 /  50  10  00  05  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 1 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR
     CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY-COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA
     FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA
     MS OUT 20 NM-MISSISSIPPI SOUND-NORTHERN MOBILE BAY-
     PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM-PERDIDO BAY-SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 4 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR WATERS
     FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM
     PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 270157 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
857 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE [TONIGHT]...UPPER AIR MAPS THIS EVENING SHOW THE AXIS OF A
SHARPLY DEFINED HIGH LEVEL TROUGH STRETCHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO
CENTRAL TEXAS. THE TROUGH PIVOTS EASTWARD TONIGHT. THIS ALLOWS A COLD
FRONT DRAPED FROM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND STATES TO ACROSS SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA TO PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE HEART OF THE FORECAST AREA
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...EXITING THE LOCAL AREA SHORTLY AFTER
DAYBREAK FRIDAY.

DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON...SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WERE BETTER
DEVELOPED AS THESE MOVED INTO INTERIOR SECTIONS OF BOTH SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...IN THE PRESENCE OF SOME WEAK MID
LEVEL INSTABILITY/LAPSE RATES (~7C/KM). BUT SINCE THEN...AS
PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED BEYOND THE BETTER MID LEVEL INSTABILITY...RADAR
TRENDS HAVE SHOWN A STEADY DECREASE IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS THAT ARE
ADVANCING EAST OVER THE INTERIOR. CONSIDERING WHAT IS LEFT ON
RADAR AND A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT...HAVE DECIDED TO MOVE FROM
NUMEROUS WORDING TO SCATTERED IN LATE EVENING SHOWERS. LITTLE TO NO
LIGHTNING OBSERVED...BUT WILL MAINTAIN AN ISOLATED OCCURRENCE OF A
STORM UNTIL THE AXIS OF THE UPPER TROUGH MAKES A CLOSER APPROACH AND
SHUNTS BETTER DYNAMICS EAST. /10

LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 40S INLAND TO LOWER/MID
50S NEAR THE COAST. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE MID 60S.
/29

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/

AVIATION...
27.00Z TAF ISSUANCE...SATELLITE SHOWS EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WITH
MULTIPLE CIG BASES OVER THE SOUTHEAST...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT
WAS ANALYZED FROM NORTHERN ALABAMA TO CENTRAL LOUISIANA. AN AREA OF
PRE-FRONTAL SHRA AND A FEW TSRA WAS MOVING EASTWARD OVER THE
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MS/SOUTHWEST AL ZONES THIS EVENING. AT THIS
TIME...IT APPEARS THE BETTER COVERAGE WILL MOVE EAST...NORTH OF THE
COASTAL TERMINALS THIS EVENING. WIND SHIFT WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE
FORECAST AROUND 27.05Z MOB/BFM AND 27.07Z PNS. POTENTIAL EXISTS OF
IFR CIG BASES AND MVFR VSBY IN PASSING -SHRA...TRANSITIONING TO
DRIZZLE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. /10

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/

SHORT TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...THE UPPER TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST AND A PERTURBATION WILL MOVE INTO
THE WESTERN SIDE OF IT AND MOVE AROUND THROUGH THE BASE. THIS WOULD
BRING INCREASING NORTHWEST WIND AND MINIMAL CHANCE OF RAIN AS THE
FRONT PASSES OUR AREA SATURDAY AS THE AIR DRIES OUT AND WIND
INCREASES FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST. EXPECTING THE RIDGE AXIS TO
BE OVER US LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH A RETURN FLOW OVERNIGHT. /77

LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...SURFACE HIGH WILL SETTLE
OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST WITH A FLAT GRADIENT AND LITTLE
WIND. AS IT MOVES EAST BY LATE MONDAY THE GRADIENT WILL STEEPEN
AGAIN AND RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN AND CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS THE UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL. ANOTHER WINDOW FOR RAIN
WILL BE PRESENTED TO US WEDNESDAY AS THE GULF OPENS UP A BIT...AND
ANOTHER COOLING TREND MAY SHOW AFTER THEN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
QUITE WARM IN THE UPCOMING WEEK IN THE UPPER 70S. LOWS IN THE MID 40S
INCREASING TO MID 50S BY TUESDAY MORNING. /77

MARINE...A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST MOVES ACROSS THE
MARINE AREA TONIGHT WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS SWITCHING
TO A STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.  HAVE EXPANDED
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO INCLUDE THE REMAINING NORTHWEST FLORIDA
BAYS THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY...THEN THE 20-60 NM PORTION CONTINUES
THROUGH MID FRIDAY AFTERNOON.  THE OFFSHORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHES
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING BY SUNDAY
WHICH CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY. /29

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      48  67  42  63  49 /  40  05  00  05  10
PENSACOLA   52  67  44  61  51 /  50  10  00  05  10
DESTIN      56  67  47  58  52 /  50  10  00  05  10
EVERGREEN   50  63  38  63  44 /  50  05  05  05  10
WAYNESBORO  45  64  39  65  44 /  50  00  00  10  10
CAMDEN      48  62  39  63  42 /  50  10  05  10  10
CRESTVIEW   54  66  39  63  46 /  50  10  00  05  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 1 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR
     CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY-COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA
     FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA
     MS OUT 20 NM-MISSISSIPPI SOUND-NORTHERN MOBILE BAY-
     PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM-PERDIDO BAY-SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 4 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR WATERS
     FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM
     PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMOB 270157 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
857 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE [TONIGHT]...UPPER AIR MAPS THIS EVENING SHOW THE AXIS OF A
SHARPLY DEFINED HIGH LEVEL TROUGH STRETCHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO
CENTRAL TEXAS. THE TROUGH PIVOTS EASTWARD TONIGHT. THIS ALLOWS A COLD
FRONT DRAPED FROM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND STATES TO ACROSS SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA TO PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE HEART OF THE FORECAST AREA
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...EXITING THE LOCAL AREA SHORTLY AFTER
DAYBREAK FRIDAY.

DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON...SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WERE BETTER
DEVELOPED AS THESE MOVED INTO INTERIOR SECTIONS OF BOTH SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...IN THE PRESENCE OF SOME WEAK MID
LEVEL INSTABILITY/LAPSE RATES (~7C/KM). BUT SINCE THEN...AS
PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED BEYOND THE BETTER MID LEVEL INSTABILITY...RADAR
TRENDS HAVE SHOWN A STEADY DECREASE IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS THAT ARE
ADVANCING EAST OVER THE INTERIOR. CONSIDERING WHAT IS LEFT ON
RADAR AND A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT...HAVE DECIDED TO MOVE FROM
NUMEROUS WORDING TO SCATTERED IN LATE EVENING SHOWERS. LITTLE TO NO
LIGHTNING OBSERVED...BUT WILL MAINTAIN AN ISOLATED OCCURRENCE OF A
STORM UNTIL THE AXIS OF THE UPPER TROUGH MAKES A CLOSER APPROACH AND
SHUNTS BETTER DYNAMICS EAST. /10

LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 40S INLAND TO LOWER/MID
50S NEAR THE COAST. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE MID 60S.
/29

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/

AVIATION...
27.00Z TAF ISSUANCE...SATELLITE SHOWS EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WITH
MULTIPLE CIG BASES OVER THE SOUTHEAST...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT
WAS ANALYZED FROM NORTHERN ALABAMA TO CENTRAL LOUISIANA. AN AREA OF
PRE-FRONTAL SHRA AND A FEW TSRA WAS MOVING EASTWARD OVER THE
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MS/SOUTHWEST AL ZONES THIS EVENING. AT THIS
TIME...IT APPEARS THE BETTER COVERAGE WILL MOVE EAST...NORTH OF THE
COASTAL TERMINALS THIS EVENING. WIND SHIFT WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE
FORECAST AROUND 27.05Z MOB/BFM AND 27.07Z PNS. POTENTIAL EXISTS OF
IFR CIG BASES AND MVFR VSBY IN PASSING -SHRA...TRANSITIONING TO
DRIZZLE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. /10

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/

SHORT TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...THE UPPER TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST AND A PERTURBATION WILL MOVE INTO
THE WESTERN SIDE OF IT AND MOVE AROUND THROUGH THE BASE. THIS WOULD
BRING INCREASING NORTHWEST WIND AND MINIMAL CHANCE OF RAIN AS THE
FRONT PASSES OUR AREA SATURDAY AS THE AIR DRIES OUT AND WIND
INCREASES FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST. EXPECTING THE RIDGE AXIS TO
BE OVER US LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH A RETURN FLOW OVERNIGHT. /77

LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...SURFACE HIGH WILL SETTLE
OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST WITH A FLAT GRADIENT AND LITTLE
WIND. AS IT MOVES EAST BY LATE MONDAY THE GRADIENT WILL STEEPEN
AGAIN AND RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN AND CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS THE UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL. ANOTHER WINDOW FOR RAIN
WILL BE PRESENTED TO US WEDNESDAY AS THE GULF OPENS UP A BIT...AND
ANOTHER COOLING TREND MAY SHOW AFTER THEN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
QUITE WARM IN THE UPCOMING WEEK IN THE UPPER 70S. LOWS IN THE MID 40S
INCREASING TO MID 50S BY TUESDAY MORNING. /77

MARINE...A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST MOVES ACROSS THE
MARINE AREA TONIGHT WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS SWITCHING
TO A STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.  HAVE EXPANDED
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO INCLUDE THE REMAINING NORTHWEST FLORIDA
BAYS THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY...THEN THE 20-60 NM PORTION CONTINUES
THROUGH MID FRIDAY AFTERNOON.  THE OFFSHORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHES
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING BY SUNDAY
WHICH CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY. /29

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      48  67  42  63  49 /  40  05  00  05  10
PENSACOLA   52  67  44  61  51 /  50  10  00  05  10
DESTIN      56  67  47  58  52 /  50  10  00  05  10
EVERGREEN   50  63  38  63  44 /  50  05  05  05  10
WAYNESBORO  45  64  39  65  44 /  50  00  00  10  10
CAMDEN      48  62  39  63  42 /  50  10  05  10  10
CRESTVIEW   54  66  39  63  46 /  50  10  00  05  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 1 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR
     CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY-COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA
     FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA
     MS OUT 20 NM-MISSISSIPPI SOUND-NORTHERN MOBILE BAY-
     PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM-PERDIDO BAY-SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 4 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR WATERS
     FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM
     PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 262333 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
633 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.AVIATION...
27.00Z TAF ISSUANCE...SATELLITE SHOWS EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WITH
MULTIPLE CIG BASES OVER THE SOUTHEAST...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT
WAS ANALYZED FROM NORTHERN ALABAMA TO CENTRAL LOUISIANA. AN AREA OF
PRE-FRONTAL SHRA AND A FEW TSRA WAS MOVING EASTWARD OVER THE
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MS/SOUTHWEST AL ZONES THIS EVENING. AT THIS
TIME...IT APPEARS THE BETTER COVERAGE WILL MOVE EAST...NORTH OF THE
COASTAL TERMINALS THIS EVENING. WIND SHIFT WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE
FORECAST AROUND 27.05Z MOB/BFM AND 27.07Z PNS. POTENTIAL EXISTS OF
IFR CIG BASES AND MVFR VSBY IN PASSING -SHRA...TRANSITIONING TO
DRIZZLE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. /10

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND FRIDAY)...A LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE CENTRAL
STATES DEEPENS WHILE ADVANCING INTO THE EASTERN STATES.  A COLD
FRONT CURRENTLY ADVANCING ACROSS MISSISSIPPI AND NORTHERN ALABAMA...AND
ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE LOW WELL TO THE NORTHEAST...MOVES THROUGH
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AND EXITS THE EASTERNMOST
PORTION SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS FOR MOST OF THE
AREA THIS EVENING THEN POPS TAPER OFF TO DRY CONDITIONS BY FRIDAY
MORNING. SURFACE BASED CAPES MAY BE AS HIGH AS 500 J/KG EARLY THIS
EVENING WHILE 0-1 KM HELICITY VALUES WILL BE AROUND 100 M2/S2. AM NOT
EXPECTING SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT ALTHOUGH A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY
MANAGE TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS EVENING. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID/UPPER 40S INLAND TO LOWER/MID 50S NEAR THE COAST. HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE MID 60S. /29

(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)... THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST AND A PERTURBATION WILL MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN SIDE OF IT AND MOVE AROUND THROUGH THE BASE. THIS WOULD
BRING INCREASING NORTHWEST WIND AND MINIMAL CHANCE OF RAIN AS THE
FRONT PASSES OUR AREA SATURDAY AS THE AIR DRIES OUT AND WIND
INCREASES FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST. EXPECTING THE RIDGE AXIS TO
BE OVER US LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH A RETURN FLOW OVERNIGHT. /77

LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...SURFACE HIGH WILL SETTLE
OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST WITH A FLAT GRADIENT AND LITTLE
WIND. AS IT MOVES EAST BY LATE MONDAY THE GRADIENT WILL STEEPEN
AGAIN AND RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN AND CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS THE UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL. ANOTHER WINDOW FOR RAIN
WILL BE PRESENTED TO US WEDNESDAY AS THE GULF OPENS UP A BIT...AND
ANOTHER COOLING TREND MAY SHOW AFTER THEN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
QUITE WARM IN THE UPCOMING WEEK IN THE UPPER 70S. LOWS IN THE MID 40S
INCREASING TO MID 50S BY TUESDAY MORNING. /77

MARINE...A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST MOVES ACROSS THE
MARINE AREA TONIGHT WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS SWITCHING
TO A STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.  HAVE EXPANDED
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO INCLUDE THE REMAINING NORTHWEST FLORIDA
BAYS THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY...THEN THE 20-60 NM PORTION CONTINUES
THROUGH MID FRIDAY AFTERNOON.  THE OFFSHORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHES
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING BY SUNDAY
WHICH CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY. /29

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      48  67  42  63  49 /  60  05  00  05  10
PENSACOLA   52  67  44  61  51 /  60  10  00  05  10
DESTIN      56  67  47  58  52 /  70  10  00  05  10
EVERGREEN   50  63  38  63  44 /  60  05  05  05  10
WAYNESBORO  45  64  39  65  44 /  60  00  00  10  10
CAMDEN      48  62  39  63  42 /  70  10  05  10  10
CRESTVIEW   54  66  39  63  46 /  60  10  00  05  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 1 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR
     CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY-COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA
     FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA
     MS OUT 20 NM-MISSISSIPPI SOUND-NORTHERN MOBILE BAY-
     PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM-PERDIDO BAY-SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 4 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR WATERS
     FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM
     PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMOB 262333 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
633 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.AVIATION...
27.00Z TAF ISSUANCE...SATELLITE SHOWS EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WITH
MULTIPLE CIG BASES OVER THE SOUTHEAST...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT
WAS ANALYZED FROM NORTHERN ALABAMA TO CENTRAL LOUISIANA. AN AREA OF
PRE-FRONTAL SHRA AND A FEW TSRA WAS MOVING EASTWARD OVER THE
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MS/SOUTHWEST AL ZONES THIS EVENING. AT THIS
TIME...IT APPEARS THE BETTER COVERAGE WILL MOVE EAST...NORTH OF THE
COASTAL TERMINALS THIS EVENING. WIND SHIFT WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE
FORECAST AROUND 27.05Z MOB/BFM AND 27.07Z PNS. POTENTIAL EXISTS OF
IFR CIG BASES AND MVFR VSBY IN PASSING -SHRA...TRANSITIONING TO
DRIZZLE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. /10

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND FRIDAY)...A LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE CENTRAL
STATES DEEPENS WHILE ADVANCING INTO THE EASTERN STATES.  A COLD
FRONT CURRENTLY ADVANCING ACROSS MISSISSIPPI AND NORTHERN ALABAMA...AND
ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE LOW WELL TO THE NORTHEAST...MOVES THROUGH
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AND EXITS THE EASTERNMOST
PORTION SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS FOR MOST OF THE
AREA THIS EVENING THEN POPS TAPER OFF TO DRY CONDITIONS BY FRIDAY
MORNING. SURFACE BASED CAPES MAY BE AS HIGH AS 500 J/KG EARLY THIS
EVENING WHILE 0-1 KM HELICITY VALUES WILL BE AROUND 100 M2/S2. AM NOT
EXPECTING SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT ALTHOUGH A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY
MANAGE TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS EVENING. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID/UPPER 40S INLAND TO LOWER/MID 50S NEAR THE COAST. HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE MID 60S. /29

(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)... THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST AND A PERTURBATION WILL MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN SIDE OF IT AND MOVE AROUND THROUGH THE BASE. THIS WOULD
BRING INCREASING NORTHWEST WIND AND MINIMAL CHANCE OF RAIN AS THE
FRONT PASSES OUR AREA SATURDAY AS THE AIR DRIES OUT AND WIND
INCREASES FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST. EXPECTING THE RIDGE AXIS TO
BE OVER US LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH A RETURN FLOW OVERNIGHT. /77

LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...SURFACE HIGH WILL SETTLE
OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST WITH A FLAT GRADIENT AND LITTLE
WIND. AS IT MOVES EAST BY LATE MONDAY THE GRADIENT WILL STEEPEN
AGAIN AND RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN AND CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS THE UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL. ANOTHER WINDOW FOR RAIN
WILL BE PRESENTED TO US WEDNESDAY AS THE GULF OPENS UP A BIT...AND
ANOTHER COOLING TREND MAY SHOW AFTER THEN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
QUITE WARM IN THE UPCOMING WEEK IN THE UPPER 70S. LOWS IN THE MID 40S
INCREASING TO MID 50S BY TUESDAY MORNING. /77

MARINE...A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST MOVES ACROSS THE
MARINE AREA TONIGHT WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS SWITCHING
TO A STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.  HAVE EXPANDED
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO INCLUDE THE REMAINING NORTHWEST FLORIDA
BAYS THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY...THEN THE 20-60 NM PORTION CONTINUES
THROUGH MID FRIDAY AFTERNOON.  THE OFFSHORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHES
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING BY SUNDAY
WHICH CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY. /29

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      48  67  42  63  49 /  60  05  00  05  10
PENSACOLA   52  67  44  61  51 /  60  10  00  05  10
DESTIN      56  67  47  58  52 /  70  10  00  05  10
EVERGREEN   50  63  38  63  44 /  60  05  05  05  10
WAYNESBORO  45  64  39  65  44 /  60  00  00  10  10
CAMDEN      48  62  39  63  42 /  70  10  05  10  10
CRESTVIEW   54  66  39  63  46 /  60  10  00  05  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 1 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR
     CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY-COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA
     FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA
     MS OUT 20 NM-MISSISSIPPI SOUND-NORTHERN MOBILE BAY-
     PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM-PERDIDO BAY-SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 4 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR WATERS
     FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM
     PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMOB 262333 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
633 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.AVIATION...
27.00Z TAF ISSUANCE...SATELLITE SHOWS EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WITH
MULTIPLE CIG BASES OVER THE SOUTHEAST...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT
WAS ANALYZED FROM NORTHERN ALABAMA TO CENTRAL LOUISIANA. AN AREA OF
PRE-FRONTAL SHRA AND A FEW TSRA WAS MOVING EASTWARD OVER THE
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MS/SOUTHWEST AL ZONES THIS EVENING. AT THIS
TIME...IT APPEARS THE BETTER COVERAGE WILL MOVE EAST...NORTH OF THE
COASTAL TERMINALS THIS EVENING. WIND SHIFT WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE
FORECAST AROUND 27.05Z MOB/BFM AND 27.07Z PNS. POTENTIAL EXISTS OF
IFR CIG BASES AND MVFR VSBY IN PASSING -SHRA...TRANSITIONING TO
DRIZZLE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. /10

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND FRIDAY)...A LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE CENTRAL
STATES DEEPENS WHILE ADVANCING INTO THE EASTERN STATES.  A COLD
FRONT CURRENTLY ADVANCING ACROSS MISSISSIPPI AND NORTHERN ALABAMA...AND
ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE LOW WELL TO THE NORTHEAST...MOVES THROUGH
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AND EXITS THE EASTERNMOST
PORTION SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS FOR MOST OF THE
AREA THIS EVENING THEN POPS TAPER OFF TO DRY CONDITIONS BY FRIDAY
MORNING. SURFACE BASED CAPES MAY BE AS HIGH AS 500 J/KG EARLY THIS
EVENING WHILE 0-1 KM HELICITY VALUES WILL BE AROUND 100 M2/S2. AM NOT
EXPECTING SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT ALTHOUGH A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY
MANAGE TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS EVENING. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID/UPPER 40S INLAND TO LOWER/MID 50S NEAR THE COAST. HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE MID 60S. /29

(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)... THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST AND A PERTURBATION WILL MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN SIDE OF IT AND MOVE AROUND THROUGH THE BASE. THIS WOULD
BRING INCREASING NORTHWEST WIND AND MINIMAL CHANCE OF RAIN AS THE
FRONT PASSES OUR AREA SATURDAY AS THE AIR DRIES OUT AND WIND
INCREASES FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST. EXPECTING THE RIDGE AXIS TO
BE OVER US LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH A RETURN FLOW OVERNIGHT. /77

LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...SURFACE HIGH WILL SETTLE
OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST WITH A FLAT GRADIENT AND LITTLE
WIND. AS IT MOVES EAST BY LATE MONDAY THE GRADIENT WILL STEEPEN
AGAIN AND RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN AND CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS THE UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL. ANOTHER WINDOW FOR RAIN
WILL BE PRESENTED TO US WEDNESDAY AS THE GULF OPENS UP A BIT...AND
ANOTHER COOLING TREND MAY SHOW AFTER THEN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
QUITE WARM IN THE UPCOMING WEEK IN THE UPPER 70S. LOWS IN THE MID 40S
INCREASING TO MID 50S BY TUESDAY MORNING. /77

MARINE...A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST MOVES ACROSS THE
MARINE AREA TONIGHT WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS SWITCHING
TO A STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.  HAVE EXPANDED
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO INCLUDE THE REMAINING NORTHWEST FLORIDA
BAYS THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY...THEN THE 20-60 NM PORTION CONTINUES
THROUGH MID FRIDAY AFTERNOON.  THE OFFSHORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHES
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING BY SUNDAY
WHICH CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY. /29

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      48  67  42  63  49 /  60  05  00  05  10
PENSACOLA   52  67  44  61  51 /  60  10  00  05  10
DESTIN      56  67  47  58  52 /  70  10  00  05  10
EVERGREEN   50  63  38  63  44 /  60  05  05  05  10
WAYNESBORO  45  64  39  65  44 /  60  00  00  10  10
CAMDEN      48  62  39  63  42 /  70  10  05  10  10
CRESTVIEW   54  66  39  63  46 /  60  10  00  05  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 1 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR
     CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY-COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA
     FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA
     MS OUT 20 NM-MISSISSIPPI SOUND-NORTHERN MOBILE BAY-
     PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM-PERDIDO BAY-SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 4 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR WATERS
     FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM
     PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 262333 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
633 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.AVIATION...
27.00Z TAF ISSUANCE...SATELLITE SHOWS EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WITH
MULTIPLE CIG BASES OVER THE SOUTHEAST...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT
WAS ANALYZED FROM NORTHERN ALABAMA TO CENTRAL LOUISIANA. AN AREA OF
PRE-FRONTAL SHRA AND A FEW TSRA WAS MOVING EASTWARD OVER THE
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MS/SOUTHWEST AL ZONES THIS EVENING. AT THIS
TIME...IT APPEARS THE BETTER COVERAGE WILL MOVE EAST...NORTH OF THE
COASTAL TERMINALS THIS EVENING. WIND SHIFT WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE
FORECAST AROUND 27.05Z MOB/BFM AND 27.07Z PNS. POTENTIAL EXISTS OF
IFR CIG BASES AND MVFR VSBY IN PASSING -SHRA...TRANSITIONING TO
DRIZZLE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. /10

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND FRIDAY)...A LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE CENTRAL
STATES DEEPENS WHILE ADVANCING INTO THE EASTERN STATES.  A COLD
FRONT CURRENTLY ADVANCING ACROSS MISSISSIPPI AND NORTHERN ALABAMA...AND
ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE LOW WELL TO THE NORTHEAST...MOVES THROUGH
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AND EXITS THE EASTERNMOST
PORTION SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS FOR MOST OF THE
AREA THIS EVENING THEN POPS TAPER OFF TO DRY CONDITIONS BY FRIDAY
MORNING. SURFACE BASED CAPES MAY BE AS HIGH AS 500 J/KG EARLY THIS
EVENING WHILE 0-1 KM HELICITY VALUES WILL BE AROUND 100 M2/S2. AM NOT
EXPECTING SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT ALTHOUGH A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY
MANAGE TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS EVENING. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID/UPPER 40S INLAND TO LOWER/MID 50S NEAR THE COAST. HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE MID 60S. /29

(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)... THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST AND A PERTURBATION WILL MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN SIDE OF IT AND MOVE AROUND THROUGH THE BASE. THIS WOULD
BRING INCREASING NORTHWEST WIND AND MINIMAL CHANCE OF RAIN AS THE
FRONT PASSES OUR AREA SATURDAY AS THE AIR DRIES OUT AND WIND
INCREASES FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST. EXPECTING THE RIDGE AXIS TO
BE OVER US LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH A RETURN FLOW OVERNIGHT. /77

LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...SURFACE HIGH WILL SETTLE
OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST WITH A FLAT GRADIENT AND LITTLE
WIND. AS IT MOVES EAST BY LATE MONDAY THE GRADIENT WILL STEEPEN
AGAIN AND RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN AND CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS THE UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL. ANOTHER WINDOW FOR RAIN
WILL BE PRESENTED TO US WEDNESDAY AS THE GULF OPENS UP A BIT...AND
ANOTHER COOLING TREND MAY SHOW AFTER THEN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
QUITE WARM IN THE UPCOMING WEEK IN THE UPPER 70S. LOWS IN THE MID 40S
INCREASING TO MID 50S BY TUESDAY MORNING. /77

MARINE...A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST MOVES ACROSS THE
MARINE AREA TONIGHT WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS SWITCHING
TO A STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.  HAVE EXPANDED
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO INCLUDE THE REMAINING NORTHWEST FLORIDA
BAYS THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY...THEN THE 20-60 NM PORTION CONTINUES
THROUGH MID FRIDAY AFTERNOON.  THE OFFSHORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHES
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING BY SUNDAY
WHICH CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY. /29

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      48  67  42  63  49 /  60  05  00  05  10
PENSACOLA   52  67  44  61  51 /  60  10  00  05  10
DESTIN      56  67  47  58  52 /  70  10  00  05  10
EVERGREEN   50  63  38  63  44 /  60  05  05  05  10
WAYNESBORO  45  64  39  65  44 /  60  00  00  10  10
CAMDEN      48  62  39  63  42 /  70  10  05  10  10
CRESTVIEW   54  66  39  63  46 /  60  10  00  05  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 1 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR
     CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY-COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA
     FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA
     MS OUT 20 NM-MISSISSIPPI SOUND-NORTHERN MOBILE BAY-
     PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM-PERDIDO BAY-SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 4 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR WATERS
     FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM
     PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 262101
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
401 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND FRIDAY)...A LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE CENTRAL
STATES DEEPENS WHILE ADVANCING INTO THE EASTERN STATES.  A COLD
FRONT CURRENTLY ADVANCING ACROSS MISSISSIPPI AND NORTHERN
ALABAMA...AND ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE LOW WELL TO THE
NORTHEAST...MOVES THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AND
EXITS THE EASTERNMOST PORTION SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.  WILL HAVE
LIKELY POPS FOR MOST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING THEN POPS TAPER OFF TO
DRY CONDITIONS BY FRIDAY MORNING.  SURFACE BASED CAPES MAY BE AS
HIGH AS 500 J/KG EARLY THIS EVENING WHILE 0-1 KM HELICITY VALUES
WILL BE AROUND 100 M2/S2.  AM NOT EXPECTING SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT
ALTHOUGH A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY MANAGE TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS
EVENING. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 40S INLAND TO
LOWER/MID 50S NEAR THE COAST. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
MID 60S. /29

(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)... THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST AND A PERTURBATION WILL MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN SIDE OF IT AND MOVE AROUND THROUGH THE BASE. THIS WOULD
BRING INCREASING NORTHWEST WIND AND MINIMAL CHANCE OF RAIN AS THE
FRONT PASSES OUR AREA SATURDAY AS THE AIR DRIES OUT AND WIND
INCREASES FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST. EXPECTING THE RIDGE AXIS TO
BE OVER US LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH A RETURN FLOW OVERNIGHT. /77

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...SURFACE HIGH WILL SETTLE
OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST WITH A FLAT GRADIENT AND LITTLE
WIND. AS IT MOVES EAST BY LATE MONDAY THE GRADIENT WILL STEEPEN
AGAIN AND RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN AND CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS THE UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL. ANOTHER WINDOW FOR RAIN
WILL BE PRESENTED TO US WEDNESDAY AS THE GULF OPENS UP A BIT...AND
ANOTHER COOLING TREND MAY SHOW AFTER THEN. HIGH  TEMPERATURES WILL
BE QUITE WARM IN THE UPCOMING WEEK IN THE UPPER 70S. LOWS IN THE MID
40S INCREASING TO MID 50S BY TUESDAY MORNING. /77

&&

.MARINE...A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST MOVES ACROSS THE
MARINE AREA TONIGHT WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS SWITCHING
TO A STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.  HAVE EXPANDED
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO INCLUDE THE REMAINING NORTHWEST FLORIDA
BAYS THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY...THEN THE 20-60 NM PORTION CONTINUES
THROUGH MID FRIDAY AFTERNOON.  THE OFFSHORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHES
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING BY SUNDAY
WHICH CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY. /29

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z ISSUANCE...WILL BEGIN WITH IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS WITH SOME
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA
WITH COVERAGE INCREASING INLAND DURING THE DAY. COVERAGE OVER THE
COASTAL PORTIONS MAY DECREASE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON WITH CEILINGS
LIFTING TO MVFR/VFR. PRIMARILY BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE WHILE
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...THEN THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA MAINLY DURING THE EVENING TO SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH A
BREEZY NORTHWEST WIND IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. WILL HAVE A TEMPO
GROUP MAINLY DURING THE EVENING HOURS FOR MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS
THEN A PREVAILING MVFR/NEAR IFR CEILING FOLLOWS WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE THEN VFR CONDITIONS RETURN FRIDAY MORNING. /29

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      48  67  42  63  49 /  60  05  00  05  10
PENSACOLA   52  67  44  61  51 /  60  10  00  05  10
DESTIN      56  67  47  58  52 /  70  10  00  05  10
EVERGREEN   50  63  38  63  44 /  60  05  05  05  10
WAYNESBORO  45  64  39  65  44 /  60  00  00  10  10
CAMDEN      48  62  39  63  42 /  70  10  05  10  10
CRESTVIEW   54  66  39  63  46 /  60  10  00  05  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 1 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR
     CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY-COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA
     FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA
     MS OUT 20 NM-MISSISSIPPI SOUND-NORTHERN MOBILE BAY-
     PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM-PERDIDO BAY-SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 4 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR WATERS
     FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM
     PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 262101
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
401 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND FRIDAY)...A LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE CENTRAL
STATES DEEPENS WHILE ADVANCING INTO THE EASTERN STATES.  A COLD
FRONT CURRENTLY ADVANCING ACROSS MISSISSIPPI AND NORTHERN
ALABAMA...AND ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE LOW WELL TO THE
NORTHEAST...MOVES THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AND
EXITS THE EASTERNMOST PORTION SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.  WILL HAVE
LIKELY POPS FOR MOST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING THEN POPS TAPER OFF TO
DRY CONDITIONS BY FRIDAY MORNING.  SURFACE BASED CAPES MAY BE AS
HIGH AS 500 J/KG EARLY THIS EVENING WHILE 0-1 KM HELICITY VALUES
WILL BE AROUND 100 M2/S2.  AM NOT EXPECTING SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT
ALTHOUGH A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY MANAGE TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS
EVENING. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 40S INLAND TO
LOWER/MID 50S NEAR THE COAST. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
MID 60S. /29

(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)... THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST AND A PERTURBATION WILL MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN SIDE OF IT AND MOVE AROUND THROUGH THE BASE. THIS WOULD
BRING INCREASING NORTHWEST WIND AND MINIMAL CHANCE OF RAIN AS THE
FRONT PASSES OUR AREA SATURDAY AS THE AIR DRIES OUT AND WIND
INCREASES FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST. EXPECTING THE RIDGE AXIS TO
BE OVER US LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH A RETURN FLOW OVERNIGHT. /77

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...SURFACE HIGH WILL SETTLE
OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST WITH A FLAT GRADIENT AND LITTLE
WIND. AS IT MOVES EAST BY LATE MONDAY THE GRADIENT WILL STEEPEN
AGAIN AND RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN AND CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS THE UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL. ANOTHER WINDOW FOR RAIN
WILL BE PRESENTED TO US WEDNESDAY AS THE GULF OPENS UP A BIT...AND
ANOTHER COOLING TREND MAY SHOW AFTER THEN. HIGH  TEMPERATURES WILL
BE QUITE WARM IN THE UPCOMING WEEK IN THE UPPER 70S. LOWS IN THE MID
40S INCREASING TO MID 50S BY TUESDAY MORNING. /77

&&

.MARINE...A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST MOVES ACROSS THE
MARINE AREA TONIGHT WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS SWITCHING
TO A STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.  HAVE EXPANDED
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO INCLUDE THE REMAINING NORTHWEST FLORIDA
BAYS THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY...THEN THE 20-60 NM PORTION CONTINUES
THROUGH MID FRIDAY AFTERNOON.  THE OFFSHORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHES
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING BY SUNDAY
WHICH CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY. /29

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z ISSUANCE...WILL BEGIN WITH IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS WITH SOME
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA
WITH COVERAGE INCREASING INLAND DURING THE DAY. COVERAGE OVER THE
COASTAL PORTIONS MAY DECREASE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON WITH CEILINGS
LIFTING TO MVFR/VFR. PRIMARILY BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE WHILE
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...THEN THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA MAINLY DURING THE EVENING TO SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH A
BREEZY NORTHWEST WIND IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. WILL HAVE A TEMPO
GROUP MAINLY DURING THE EVENING HOURS FOR MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS
THEN A PREVAILING MVFR/NEAR IFR CEILING FOLLOWS WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE THEN VFR CONDITIONS RETURN FRIDAY MORNING. /29

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      48  67  42  63  49 /  60  05  00  05  10
PENSACOLA   52  67  44  61  51 /  60  10  00  05  10
DESTIN      56  67  47  58  52 /  70  10  00  05  10
EVERGREEN   50  63  38  63  44 /  60  05  05  05  10
WAYNESBORO  45  64  39  65  44 /  60  00  00  10  10
CAMDEN      48  62  39  63  42 /  70  10  05  10  10
CRESTVIEW   54  66  39  63  46 /  60  10  00  05  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 1 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR
     CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY-COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA
     FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA
     MS OUT 20 NM-MISSISSIPPI SOUND-NORTHERN MOBILE BAY-
     PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM-PERDIDO BAY-SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 4 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR WATERS
     FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM
     PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMOB 261747 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1247 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z ISSUANCE...WILL BEGIN WITH IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS WITH SOME
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA
WITH COVERAGE INCREASING INLAND DURING THE DAY. COVERAGE OVER THE
COASTAL PORTIONS MAY DECREASE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON WITH CEILINGS
LIFTING TO MVFR/VFR. PRIMARILY BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE WHILE
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...THEN THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA MAINLY DURING THE EVENING TO SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH A
BREEZY NORTHWEST WIND IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. WILL HAVE A TEMPO
GROUP MAINLY DURING THE EVENING HOURS FOR MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS
THEN A PREVAILING MVFR/NEAR IFR CEILING FOLLOWS WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE THEN VFR CONDITIONS RETURN FRIDAY MORNING. /29

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 956 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/

UPDATE...WILL UPDATE TO INCREASE POPS DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING HOURS OVER THE COASTAL PORTION OF THE AREA WITH OTHER MAINLY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. WILL UPDATE THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST AS WELL FOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO MIXING HEIGHTS...TRANSPORT WINDS AND OTHER DERIVED
FIELDS.  HAVE ALSO ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR MOST OF THE
MARINE AREA FOR LATER TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. UPDATES OUT
SOON. /29

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 507 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/

SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...FOR TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...
A SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WEAKENS QUICKLY TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE FCST AREA FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL BE WELL INTO
MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA BY MIDDAY...AND POISED TO MOVE INTO OUR FCST
AREA. BY DARK THE FRONT SHOULD BE ALONG THE I-65 CORRIDOR AND THEN
EAST OF THE FCST AREA SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. A GENERAL LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES...SHIFTING AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASING IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL BECOME LIKELY...WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. SOME
OF THE STORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA WHERE
INSTABILITY WILL BE HIGHEST COULD BE BRIEFLY STRONG...BUT SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. A LITTLE COOLER TODAY WITH
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND HIGHER RAIN CHANCES...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S COASTAL AREAS TO THE MID 70S
OVER THE INTERIOR COUNTIES. COOLER TONIGHT AS WELL...ESPECIALLY WELL
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S
OVER NORTHWEST INTERIOR COUNTIES TO THE LOWER 50S SOUTHEAST COASTAL
COUNTIES. 12/DS

FRIDAY...THE AXIS OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS SWINGS
EAST PAST THE FA. A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE BACK OF THE
TROUGH PUSHES A RE-ENFORCING FRONT TOWARDS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. A
SECOND SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE TROUGH BEGINS TO WORK WITH THE
FRONT TO CREATE AN AREA OF ENHANCED CLOUDINESS. THE COOLER AIR THAT
MOVES OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT BECOMES EVIDENT...WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 60S EXPECTED. LOOKING AT THICKNESS VALUES AROUND THE
FA...IN EVIDENCE IS THE MOST SOUTHERLY PUSH OF THE COOLER AIR TO THIS
POINT IS EAST OF THE FA.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO
MEANDER EAST...YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE
TROUGH. THIS SHORTWAVE BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND OF INCREASED CLOUDINESS
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHED ACROSS THE FA...ALONG WITH
ENOUGH OOMPH TO BRING A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE NORTHEASTERN
PORTION OF THE FA SATURDAY. THE COOL AIR RETREATS A BIT...SO TEMPS
MODERATE BACK UPWARD A BIT.

LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT ON)...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFF...DRAGGING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OVER
THE EAST COAST THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. THE RESULT OF THE FA IS A
QUICK SHIFT IN THE LOW LEVELS WINDS FROM NORTHERLY TO SOUTHERLY.
TEMPS MODERATE BACK TO SEASONAL LEVELS AS A RESULT.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE MID MISS AND TENN RIVER VALLEYS. THIS PUSHES ANOTHER FRONT
SOUTH TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. PATH DIFFERENCES IN THE GFS AND
ECMWF RESULT IN DIFFERENCES IN PLACEMENT...WITH THE GFS ADVERTISING
THE SOUTHERN-MOST EXTENT OF THE FRONT IN THE GFS BEING ALONG THE FL
ATLANTIC COAST...WHILST THE ECMWF IS ADVERTISING THE FRONT`S MOST
SOUTHERN EXTEND BEING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISS RIVER
VALLEY. THE ECMWF SOLUTION LEADS TO A TIGHTER TEMP RANGE WITH HIGHER
POPS THAN THE GFS. HAVE WENT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE TWO FOR THE
FORECAST. TEMPS AND CHANCE OF RAIN ABOVE SEASONAL IS THE RESULT.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...UPPER ENERGY MOVES FROM OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO EITHER OVER THE TX
COAST(ECMWF) OR THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY(GFS). THE MORE NORTHERLY
PATH OF THE STRONGER GFS ENERGY BRINGS INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW TO THE
AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. TEMPS WELL ABOVE SEASONAL CONTINUE...THOUGH THE
CHANCE OF RAIN DROPS TO AROUND SEASONAL.

MARINE...A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY MORE SOUTHERLY TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE MARINE AREA THIS
EVENING...WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO SOUTHWEST DURING THE EVENING AND
SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST AND INCREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...ENDING LATE TONIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MODERATE
TO STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY...
BEFORE WEAKENING LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MARINE AREA. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      75  47  67  41  68 /  90  40  10  00  10
PENSACOLA   73  52  68  44  66 /  90  50  10  00  10
DESTIN      74  54  66  46  64 /  90  60  10  00  10
EVERGREEN   76  48  64  38  67 /  60  60  10  00  10
WAYNESBORO  76  43  64  38  68 /  60  40  05  00  10
CAMDEN      77  46  63  38  66 /  50  60  10  00  10
CRESTVIEW   75  53  66  36  68 /  70  60  10  00  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 1 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 10 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND-NORTHERN MOBILE BAY-SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 4 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR WATERS
     FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM
     PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 261747 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1247 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z ISSUANCE...WILL BEGIN WITH IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS WITH SOME
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA
WITH COVERAGE INCREASING INLAND DURING THE DAY. COVERAGE OVER THE
COASTAL PORTIONS MAY DECREASE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON WITH CEILINGS
LIFTING TO MVFR/VFR. PRIMARILY BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE WHILE
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...THEN THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA MAINLY DURING THE EVENING TO SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH A
BREEZY NORTHWEST WIND IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. WILL HAVE A TEMPO
GROUP MAINLY DURING THE EVENING HOURS FOR MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS
THEN A PREVAILING MVFR/NEAR IFR CEILING FOLLOWS WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE THEN VFR CONDITIONS RETURN FRIDAY MORNING. /29

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 956 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/

UPDATE...WILL UPDATE TO INCREASE POPS DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING HOURS OVER THE COASTAL PORTION OF THE AREA WITH OTHER MAINLY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. WILL UPDATE THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST AS WELL FOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO MIXING HEIGHTS...TRANSPORT WINDS AND OTHER DERIVED
FIELDS.  HAVE ALSO ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR MOST OF THE
MARINE AREA FOR LATER TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. UPDATES OUT
SOON. /29

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 507 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/

SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...FOR TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...
A SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WEAKENS QUICKLY TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE FCST AREA FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL BE WELL INTO
MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA BY MIDDAY...AND POISED TO MOVE INTO OUR FCST
AREA. BY DARK THE FRONT SHOULD BE ALONG THE I-65 CORRIDOR AND THEN
EAST OF THE FCST AREA SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. A GENERAL LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES...SHIFTING AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASING IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL BECOME LIKELY...WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. SOME
OF THE STORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA WHERE
INSTABILITY WILL BE HIGHEST COULD BE BRIEFLY STRONG...BUT SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. A LITTLE COOLER TODAY WITH
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND HIGHER RAIN CHANCES...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S COASTAL AREAS TO THE MID 70S
OVER THE INTERIOR COUNTIES. COOLER TONIGHT AS WELL...ESPECIALLY WELL
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S
OVER NORTHWEST INTERIOR COUNTIES TO THE LOWER 50S SOUTHEAST COASTAL
COUNTIES. 12/DS

FRIDAY...THE AXIS OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS SWINGS
EAST PAST THE FA. A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE BACK OF THE
TROUGH PUSHES A RE-ENFORCING FRONT TOWARDS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. A
SECOND SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE TROUGH BEGINS TO WORK WITH THE
FRONT TO CREATE AN AREA OF ENHANCED CLOUDINESS. THE COOLER AIR THAT
MOVES OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT BECOMES EVIDENT...WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 60S EXPECTED. LOOKING AT THICKNESS VALUES AROUND THE
FA...IN EVIDENCE IS THE MOST SOUTHERLY PUSH OF THE COOLER AIR TO THIS
POINT IS EAST OF THE FA.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO
MEANDER EAST...YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE
TROUGH. THIS SHORTWAVE BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND OF INCREASED CLOUDINESS
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHED ACROSS THE FA...ALONG WITH
ENOUGH OOMPH TO BRING A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE NORTHEASTERN
PORTION OF THE FA SATURDAY. THE COOL AIR RETREATS A BIT...SO TEMPS
MODERATE BACK UPWARD A BIT.

LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT ON)...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFF...DRAGGING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OVER
THE EAST COAST THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. THE RESULT OF THE FA IS A
QUICK SHIFT IN THE LOW LEVELS WINDS FROM NORTHERLY TO SOUTHERLY.
TEMPS MODERATE BACK TO SEASONAL LEVELS AS A RESULT.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE MID MISS AND TENN RIVER VALLEYS. THIS PUSHES ANOTHER FRONT
SOUTH TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. PATH DIFFERENCES IN THE GFS AND
ECMWF RESULT IN DIFFERENCES IN PLACEMENT...WITH THE GFS ADVERTISING
THE SOUTHERN-MOST EXTENT OF THE FRONT IN THE GFS BEING ALONG THE FL
ATLANTIC COAST...WHILST THE ECMWF IS ADVERTISING THE FRONT`S MOST
SOUTHERN EXTEND BEING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISS RIVER
VALLEY. THE ECMWF SOLUTION LEADS TO A TIGHTER TEMP RANGE WITH HIGHER
POPS THAN THE GFS. HAVE WENT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE TWO FOR THE
FORECAST. TEMPS AND CHANCE OF RAIN ABOVE SEASONAL IS THE RESULT.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...UPPER ENERGY MOVES FROM OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO EITHER OVER THE TX
COAST(ECMWF) OR THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY(GFS). THE MORE NORTHERLY
PATH OF THE STRONGER GFS ENERGY BRINGS INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW TO THE
AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. TEMPS WELL ABOVE SEASONAL CONTINUE...THOUGH THE
CHANCE OF RAIN DROPS TO AROUND SEASONAL.

MARINE...A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY MORE SOUTHERLY TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE MARINE AREA THIS
EVENING...WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO SOUTHWEST DURING THE EVENING AND
SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST AND INCREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...ENDING LATE TONIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MODERATE
TO STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY...
BEFORE WEAKENING LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MARINE AREA. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      75  47  67  41  68 /  90  40  10  00  10
PENSACOLA   73  52  68  44  66 /  90  50  10  00  10
DESTIN      74  54  66  46  64 /  90  60  10  00  10
EVERGREEN   76  48  64  38  67 /  60  60  10  00  10
WAYNESBORO  76  43  64  38  68 /  60  40  05  00  10
CAMDEN      77  46  63  38  66 /  50  60  10  00  10
CRESTVIEW   75  53  66  36  68 /  70  60  10  00  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 1 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 10 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND-NORTHERN MOBILE BAY-SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 4 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR WATERS
     FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM
     PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMOB 261456 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
956 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...WILL UPDATE TO INCREASE POPS DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING HOURS OVER THE COASTAL PORTION OF THE AREA WITH OTHER MAINLY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. WILL UPDATE THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST AS WELL FOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO MIXING HEIGHTS...TRANSPORT WINDS AND OTHER DERIVED
FIELDS.  HAVE ALSO ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR MOST OF THE
MARINE AREA FOR LATER TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. UPDATES OUT
SOON. /29

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 507 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/

SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...FOR TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...
A SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WEAKENS QUICKLY TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE FCST AREA FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL BE WELL INTO
MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA BY MIDDAY...AND POISED TO MOVE INTO OUR FCST
AREA. BY DARK THE FRONT SHOULD BE ALONG THE I-65 CORRIDOR AND THEN
EAST OF THE FCST AREA SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. A GENERAL LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES...SHIFTING AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASING IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL BECOME LIKELY...WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. SOME
OF THE STORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA WHERE
INSTABILITY WILL BE HIGHEST COULD BE BRIEFLY STRONG...BUT SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. A LITTLE COOLER TODAY WITH
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND HIGHER RAIN CHANCES...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S COASTAL AREAS TO THE MID 70S
OVER THE INTERIOR COUNTIES. COOLER TONIGHT AS WELL...ESPECIALLY WELL
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S
OVER NORTHWEST INTERIOR COUNTIES TO THE LOWER 50S SOUTHEAST COASTAL
COUNTIES. 12/DS

FRIDAY...THE AXIS OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS SWINGS
EAST PAST THE FA. A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE BACK OF THE
TROUGH PUSHES A RE-ENFORCING FRONT TOWARDS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. A
SECOND SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE TROUGH BEGINS TO WORK WITH THE
FRONT TO CREATE AN AREA OF ENHANCED CLOUDINESS. THE COOLER AIR THAT
MOVES OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT BECOMES EVIDENT...WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 60S EXPECTED. LOOKING AT THICKNESS VALUES AROUND THE
FA...IN EVIDENCE IS THE MOST SOUTHERLY PUSH OF THE COOLER AIR TO THIS
POINT IS EAST OF THE FA.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO
MEANDER EAST...YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE
TROUGH. THIS SHORTWAVE BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND OF INCREASED CLOUDINESS
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHED ACROSS THE FA...ALONG WITH
ENOUGH OOMPH TO BRING A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE NORTHEASTERN
PORTION OF THE FA SATURDAY. THE COOL AIR RETREATS A BIT...SO TEMPS
MODERATE BACK UPWARD A BIT.

LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT ON)...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFF...DRAGGING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OVER
THE EAST COAST THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. THE RESULT OF THE FA IS A
QUICK SHIFT IN THE LOW LEVELS WINDS FROM NORTHERLY TO SOUTHERLY.
TEMPS MODERATE BACK TO SEASONAL LEVELS AS A RESULT.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE MID MISS AND TENN RIVER VALLEYS. THIS PUSHES ANOTHER FRONT
SOUTH TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. PATH DIFFERENCES IN THE GFS AND
ECMWF RESULT IN DIFFERENCES IN PLACEMENT...WITH THE GFS ADVERTISING
THE SOUTHERN-MOST EXTENT OF THE FRONT IN THE GFS BEING ALONG THE FL
ATLANTIC COAST...WHILST THE ECMWF IS ADVERTISING THE FRONT`S MOST
SOUTHERN EXTEND BEING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISS RIVER
VALLEY. THE ECMWF SOLUTION LEADS TO A TIGHTER TEMP RANGE WITH HIGHER
POPS THAN THE GFS. HAVE WENT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE TWO FOR THE
FORECAST. TEMPS AND CHANCE OF RAIN ABOVE SEASONAL IS THE RESULT.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...UPPER ENERGY MOVES FROM OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO EITHER OVER THE TX
COAST(ECMWF) OR THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY(GFS). THE MORE NORTHERLY
PATH OF THE STRONGER GFS ENERGY BRINGS INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW TO THE
AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. TEMPS WELL ABOVE SEASONAL CONTINUE...THOUGH THE
CHANCE OF RAIN DROPS TO AROUND SEASONAL.

AVIATION...
26/12Z FORECAST CYCLE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO THE WEST OF THE AREA WILL RESULT IN A
SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION TODAY. CEILINGS CONTINUE AT
MULTIPLE LEVELS ACROSS THE AREA...AND PATCHY FOG CONTINUES TO BE
VARIABLE ACROSS THE REGION AS WELL...RANGING FROM 1/2 TO ABOUT 4
MILES AT SOME OBSERVATION POINTS. CRITERIA WILL RANGE FROM IFR TO
MVFR ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SUNRISE...AND REMAIN MVFR (LOWER AT
TIMES) DURING THE DAY AS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE APPROACHING FRONT. THIS EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS THE
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS ENDING WEST TO
EAST. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST DURING THE EVENING AS
THE FRONT APPROACHES AND THEN SHIFT NORTHWEST AND INCREASE AFTER
MIDNIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT. 12/DS

MARINE...A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY MORE SOUTHERLY TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE MARINE AREA THIS
EVENING...WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO SOUTHWEST DURING THE EVENING AND
SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST AND INCREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...ENDING LATE TONIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MODERATE
TO STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY...
BEFORE WEAKENING LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MARINE AREA. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      75  47  67  41  68 /  90  40  10  00  10
PENSACOLA   73  52  68  44  66 /  90  50  10  00  10
DESTIN      74  54  66  46  64 /  90  60  10  00  10
EVERGREEN   76  48  64  38  67 /  60  60  10  00  10
WAYNESBORO  76  43  64  38  68 /  60  40  05  00  10
CAMDEN      77  46  63  38  66 /  50  60  10  00  10
CRESTVIEW   75  53  66  36  68 /  70  60  10  00  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 1 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 10 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND-NORTHERN MOBILE BAY-SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 4 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR WATERS
     FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM
     PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMOB 261456 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
956 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...WILL UPDATE TO INCREASE POPS DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING HOURS OVER THE COASTAL PORTION OF THE AREA WITH OTHER MAINLY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. WILL UPDATE THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST AS WELL FOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO MIXING HEIGHTS...TRANSPORT WINDS AND OTHER DERIVED
FIELDS.  HAVE ALSO ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR MOST OF THE
MARINE AREA FOR LATER TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. UPDATES OUT
SOON. /29

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 507 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/

SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...FOR TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...
A SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WEAKENS QUICKLY TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE FCST AREA FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL BE WELL INTO
MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA BY MIDDAY...AND POISED TO MOVE INTO OUR FCST
AREA. BY DARK THE FRONT SHOULD BE ALONG THE I-65 CORRIDOR AND THEN
EAST OF THE FCST AREA SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. A GENERAL LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES...SHIFTING AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASING IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL BECOME LIKELY...WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. SOME
OF THE STORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA WHERE
INSTABILITY WILL BE HIGHEST COULD BE BRIEFLY STRONG...BUT SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. A LITTLE COOLER TODAY WITH
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND HIGHER RAIN CHANCES...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S COASTAL AREAS TO THE MID 70S
OVER THE INTERIOR COUNTIES. COOLER TONIGHT AS WELL...ESPECIALLY WELL
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S
OVER NORTHWEST INTERIOR COUNTIES TO THE LOWER 50S SOUTHEAST COASTAL
COUNTIES. 12/DS

FRIDAY...THE AXIS OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS SWINGS
EAST PAST THE FA. A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE BACK OF THE
TROUGH PUSHES A RE-ENFORCING FRONT TOWARDS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. A
SECOND SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE TROUGH BEGINS TO WORK WITH THE
FRONT TO CREATE AN AREA OF ENHANCED CLOUDINESS. THE COOLER AIR THAT
MOVES OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT BECOMES EVIDENT...WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 60S EXPECTED. LOOKING AT THICKNESS VALUES AROUND THE
FA...IN EVIDENCE IS THE MOST SOUTHERLY PUSH OF THE COOLER AIR TO THIS
POINT IS EAST OF THE FA.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO
MEANDER EAST...YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE
TROUGH. THIS SHORTWAVE BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND OF INCREASED CLOUDINESS
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHED ACROSS THE FA...ALONG WITH
ENOUGH OOMPH TO BRING A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE NORTHEASTERN
PORTION OF THE FA SATURDAY. THE COOL AIR RETREATS A BIT...SO TEMPS
MODERATE BACK UPWARD A BIT.

LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT ON)...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFF...DRAGGING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OVER
THE EAST COAST THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. THE RESULT OF THE FA IS A
QUICK SHIFT IN THE LOW LEVELS WINDS FROM NORTHERLY TO SOUTHERLY.
TEMPS MODERATE BACK TO SEASONAL LEVELS AS A RESULT.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE MID MISS AND TENN RIVER VALLEYS. THIS PUSHES ANOTHER FRONT
SOUTH TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. PATH DIFFERENCES IN THE GFS AND
ECMWF RESULT IN DIFFERENCES IN PLACEMENT...WITH THE GFS ADVERTISING
THE SOUTHERN-MOST EXTENT OF THE FRONT IN THE GFS BEING ALONG THE FL
ATLANTIC COAST...WHILST THE ECMWF IS ADVERTISING THE FRONT`S MOST
SOUTHERN EXTEND BEING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISS RIVER
VALLEY. THE ECMWF SOLUTION LEADS TO A TIGHTER TEMP RANGE WITH HIGHER
POPS THAN THE GFS. HAVE WENT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE TWO FOR THE
FORECAST. TEMPS AND CHANCE OF RAIN ABOVE SEASONAL IS THE RESULT.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...UPPER ENERGY MOVES FROM OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO EITHER OVER THE TX
COAST(ECMWF) OR THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY(GFS). THE MORE NORTHERLY
PATH OF THE STRONGER GFS ENERGY BRINGS INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW TO THE
AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. TEMPS WELL ABOVE SEASONAL CONTINUE...THOUGH THE
CHANCE OF RAIN DROPS TO AROUND SEASONAL.

AVIATION...
26/12Z FORECAST CYCLE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO THE WEST OF THE AREA WILL RESULT IN A
SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION TODAY. CEILINGS CONTINUE AT
MULTIPLE LEVELS ACROSS THE AREA...AND PATCHY FOG CONTINUES TO BE
VARIABLE ACROSS THE REGION AS WELL...RANGING FROM 1/2 TO ABOUT 4
MILES AT SOME OBSERVATION POINTS. CRITERIA WILL RANGE FROM IFR TO
MVFR ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SUNRISE...AND REMAIN MVFR (LOWER AT
TIMES) DURING THE DAY AS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE APPROACHING FRONT. THIS EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS THE
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS ENDING WEST TO
EAST. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST DURING THE EVENING AS
THE FRONT APPROACHES AND THEN SHIFT NORTHWEST AND INCREASE AFTER
MIDNIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT. 12/DS

MARINE...A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY MORE SOUTHERLY TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE MARINE AREA THIS
EVENING...WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO SOUTHWEST DURING THE EVENING AND
SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST AND INCREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...ENDING LATE TONIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MODERATE
TO STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY...
BEFORE WEAKENING LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MARINE AREA. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      75  47  67  41  68 /  90  40  10  00  10
PENSACOLA   73  52  68  44  66 /  90  50  10  00  10
DESTIN      74  54  66  46  64 /  90  60  10  00  10
EVERGREEN   76  48  64  38  67 /  60  60  10  00  10
WAYNESBORO  76  43  64  38  68 /  60  40  05  00  10
CAMDEN      77  46  63  38  66 /  50  60  10  00  10
CRESTVIEW   75  53  66  36  68 /  70  60  10  00  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 1 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 10 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND-NORTHERN MOBILE BAY-SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 4 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR WATERS
     FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM
     PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 261456 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
956 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...WILL UPDATE TO INCREASE POPS DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING HOURS OVER THE COASTAL PORTION OF THE AREA WITH OTHER MAINLY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. WILL UPDATE THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST AS WELL FOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO MIXING HEIGHTS...TRANSPORT WINDS AND OTHER DERIVED
FIELDS.  HAVE ALSO ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR MOST OF THE
MARINE AREA FOR LATER TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. UPDATES OUT
SOON. /29

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 507 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/

SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...FOR TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...
A SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WEAKENS QUICKLY TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE FCST AREA FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL BE WELL INTO
MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA BY MIDDAY...AND POISED TO MOVE INTO OUR FCST
AREA. BY DARK THE FRONT SHOULD BE ALONG THE I-65 CORRIDOR AND THEN
EAST OF THE FCST AREA SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. A GENERAL LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES...SHIFTING AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASING IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL BECOME LIKELY...WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. SOME
OF THE STORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA WHERE
INSTABILITY WILL BE HIGHEST COULD BE BRIEFLY STRONG...BUT SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. A LITTLE COOLER TODAY WITH
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND HIGHER RAIN CHANCES...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S COASTAL AREAS TO THE MID 70S
OVER THE INTERIOR COUNTIES. COOLER TONIGHT AS WELL...ESPECIALLY WELL
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S
OVER NORTHWEST INTERIOR COUNTIES TO THE LOWER 50S SOUTHEAST COASTAL
COUNTIES. 12/DS

FRIDAY...THE AXIS OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS SWINGS
EAST PAST THE FA. A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE BACK OF THE
TROUGH PUSHES A RE-ENFORCING FRONT TOWARDS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. A
SECOND SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE TROUGH BEGINS TO WORK WITH THE
FRONT TO CREATE AN AREA OF ENHANCED CLOUDINESS. THE COOLER AIR THAT
MOVES OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT BECOMES EVIDENT...WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 60S EXPECTED. LOOKING AT THICKNESS VALUES AROUND THE
FA...IN EVIDENCE IS THE MOST SOUTHERLY PUSH OF THE COOLER AIR TO THIS
POINT IS EAST OF THE FA.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO
MEANDER EAST...YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE
TROUGH. THIS SHORTWAVE BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND OF INCREASED CLOUDINESS
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHED ACROSS THE FA...ALONG WITH
ENOUGH OOMPH TO BRING A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE NORTHEASTERN
PORTION OF THE FA SATURDAY. THE COOL AIR RETREATS A BIT...SO TEMPS
MODERATE BACK UPWARD A BIT.

LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT ON)...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFF...DRAGGING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OVER
THE EAST COAST THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. THE RESULT OF THE FA IS A
QUICK SHIFT IN THE LOW LEVELS WINDS FROM NORTHERLY TO SOUTHERLY.
TEMPS MODERATE BACK TO SEASONAL LEVELS AS A RESULT.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE MID MISS AND TENN RIVER VALLEYS. THIS PUSHES ANOTHER FRONT
SOUTH TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. PATH DIFFERENCES IN THE GFS AND
ECMWF RESULT IN DIFFERENCES IN PLACEMENT...WITH THE GFS ADVERTISING
THE SOUTHERN-MOST EXTENT OF THE FRONT IN THE GFS BEING ALONG THE FL
ATLANTIC COAST...WHILST THE ECMWF IS ADVERTISING THE FRONT`S MOST
SOUTHERN EXTEND BEING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISS RIVER
VALLEY. THE ECMWF SOLUTION LEADS TO A TIGHTER TEMP RANGE WITH HIGHER
POPS THAN THE GFS. HAVE WENT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE TWO FOR THE
FORECAST. TEMPS AND CHANCE OF RAIN ABOVE SEASONAL IS THE RESULT.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...UPPER ENERGY MOVES FROM OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO EITHER OVER THE TX
COAST(ECMWF) OR THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY(GFS). THE MORE NORTHERLY
PATH OF THE STRONGER GFS ENERGY BRINGS INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW TO THE
AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. TEMPS WELL ABOVE SEASONAL CONTINUE...THOUGH THE
CHANCE OF RAIN DROPS TO AROUND SEASONAL.

AVIATION...
26/12Z FORECAST CYCLE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO THE WEST OF THE AREA WILL RESULT IN A
SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION TODAY. CEILINGS CONTINUE AT
MULTIPLE LEVELS ACROSS THE AREA...AND PATCHY FOG CONTINUES TO BE
VARIABLE ACROSS THE REGION AS WELL...RANGING FROM 1/2 TO ABOUT 4
MILES AT SOME OBSERVATION POINTS. CRITERIA WILL RANGE FROM IFR TO
MVFR ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SUNRISE...AND REMAIN MVFR (LOWER AT
TIMES) DURING THE DAY AS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE APPROACHING FRONT. THIS EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS THE
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS ENDING WEST TO
EAST. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST DURING THE EVENING AS
THE FRONT APPROACHES AND THEN SHIFT NORTHWEST AND INCREASE AFTER
MIDNIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT. 12/DS

MARINE...A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY MORE SOUTHERLY TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE MARINE AREA THIS
EVENING...WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO SOUTHWEST DURING THE EVENING AND
SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST AND INCREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...ENDING LATE TONIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MODERATE
TO STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY...
BEFORE WEAKENING LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MARINE AREA. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      75  47  67  41  68 /  90  40  10  00  10
PENSACOLA   73  52  68  44  66 /  90  50  10  00  10
DESTIN      74  54  66  46  64 /  90  60  10  00  10
EVERGREEN   76  48  64  38  67 /  60  60  10  00  10
WAYNESBORO  76  43  64  38  68 /  60  40  05  00  10
CAMDEN      77  46  63  38  66 /  50  60  10  00  10
CRESTVIEW   75  53  66  36  68 /  70  60  10  00  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 1 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 10 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND-NORTHERN MOBILE BAY-SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 4 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR WATERS
     FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM
     PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMOB 261007
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
507 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...FOR TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...
A SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WEAKENS QUICKLY TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE FCST AREA FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL BE WELL INTO
MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA BY MIDDAY...AND POISED TO MOVE INTO OUR FCST
AREA. BY DARK THE FRONT SHOULD BE ALONG THE I-65 CORRIDOR AND THEN
EAST OF THE FCST AREA SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. A GENERAL LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES...SHIFTING AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASING IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL BECOME LIKELY...WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. SOME
OF THE STORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA WHERE
INSTABILITY WILL BE HIGHEST COULD BE BRIEFLY STRONG...BUT SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. A LITTLE COOLER TODAY WITH
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND HIGHER RAIN CHANCES...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S COASTAL AREAS TO THE MID 70S
OVER THE INTERIOR COUNTIES. COOLER TONIGHT AS WELL...ESPECIALLY WELL
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S
OVER NORTHWEST INTERIOR COUNTIES TO THE LOWER 50S SOUTHEAST COASTAL
COUNTIES. 12/DS

FRIDAY...THE AXIS OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS SWINGS
EAST PAST THE FA. A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE BACK OF THE
TROUGH PUSHES A RE-ENFORCING FRONT TOWARDS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. A
SECOND SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE TROUGH BEGINS TO WORK WITH THE
FRONT TO CREATE AN AREA OF ENHANCED CLOUDINESS. THE COOLER AIR THAT
MOVES OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT BECOMES EVIDENT...WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 60S EXPECTED. LOOKING AT THICKNESS VALUES AROUND THE
FA...IN EVIDENCE IS THE MOST SOUTHERLY PUSH OF THE COOLER AIR TO THIS
POINT IS EAST OF THE FA.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO
MEANDER EAST...YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE
TROUGH. THIS SHORTWAVE BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND OF INCREASED CLOUDINESS
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHED ACROSS THE FA...ALONG WITH
ENOUGH OOMPH TO BRING A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE NORTHEASTERN
PORTION OF THE FA SATURDAY. THE COOL AIR RETREATS A BIT...SO TEMPS
MODERATE BACK UPWARD A BIT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT ON)...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFF...DRAGGING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OVER
THE EAST COAST THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. THE RESULT OF THE FA IS A
QUICK SHIFT IN THE LOW LEVELS WINDS FROM NORTHERLY TO SOUTHERLY.
TEMPS MODERATE BACK TO SEASONAL LEVELS AS A RESULT.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE MID MISS AND TENN RIVER VALLEYS. THIS PUSHES ANOTHER FRONT
SOUTH TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. PATH DIFFERENCES IN THE GFS AND
ECMWF RESULT IN DIFFERENCES IN PLACEMENT...WITH THE GFS ADVERTISING
THE SOUTHERN-MOST EXTENT OF THE FRONT IN THE GFS BEING ALONG THE FL
ATLANTIC COAST...WHILST THE ECMWF IS ADVERTISING THE FRONT`S MOST
SOUTHERN EXTEND BEING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISS RIVER
VALLEY. THE ECMWF SOLUTION LEADS TO A TIGHTER TEMP RANGE WITH HIGHER
POPS THAN THE GFS. HAVE WENT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE TWO FOR THE
FORECAST. TEMPS AND CHANCE OF RAIN ABOVE SEASONAL IS THE RESULT.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...UPPER ENERGY MOVES FROM OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO EITHER OVER THE TX
COAST(ECMWF) OR THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY(GFS). THE MORE NORTHERLY
PATH OF THE STRONGER GFS ENERGY BRINGS INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW TO THE
AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. TEMPS WELL ABOVE SEASONAL CONTINUE...THOUGH THE
CHANCE OF RAIN DROPS TO AROUND SEASONAL.


&&

.AVIATION...
26/12Z FORECAST CYCLE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO THE WEST OF THE AREA WILL RESULT IN A
SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION TODAY. CEILINGS CONTINUE AT
MULTIPLE LEVELS ACROSS THE AREA...AND PATCHY FOG CONTINUES TO BE
VARIABLE ACROSS THE REGION AS WELL...RANGING FROM 1/2 TO ABOUT 4
MILES AT SOME OBSERVATION POINTS. CRITERIA WILL RANGE FROM IFR TO
MVFR ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SUNRISE...AND REMAIN MVFR (LOWER AT
TIMES) DURING THE DAY AS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE APPROACHING FRONT. THIS EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS THE
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS ENDING WEST TO
EAST. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST DURING THE EVENING AS
THE FRONT APPROACHES AND THEN SHIFT NORTHWEST AND INCREASE AFTER
MIDNIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT. 12/DS

&&

.MARINE...A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY MORE SOUTHERLY TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE MARINE AREA THIS
EVENING...WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO SOUTHWEST DURING THE EVENING AND
SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST AND INCREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...ENDING LATE TONIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MODERATE
TO STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY...
BEFORE WEAKENING LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MARINE AREA. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      75  47  67  41  68 /  80  40  10  00  10
PENSACOLA   73  52  68  44  66 /  80  50  10  00  10
DESTIN      74  54  66  46  64 /  80  60  10  00  10
EVERGREEN   76  48  64  38  67 /  60  60  10  00  10
WAYNESBORO  76  43  64  38  68 /  60  40  05  00  10
CAMDEN      77  46  63  38  66 /  50  60  10  00  10
CRESTVIEW   75  53  66  36  68 /  70  60  10  00  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

12/16




000
FXUS64 KMOB 261007
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
507 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...FOR TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...
A SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WEAKENS QUICKLY TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE FCST AREA FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL BE WELL INTO
MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA BY MIDDAY...AND POISED TO MOVE INTO OUR FCST
AREA. BY DARK THE FRONT SHOULD BE ALONG THE I-65 CORRIDOR AND THEN
EAST OF THE FCST AREA SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. A GENERAL LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES...SHIFTING AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASING IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL BECOME LIKELY...WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. SOME
OF THE STORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA WHERE
INSTABILITY WILL BE HIGHEST COULD BE BRIEFLY STRONG...BUT SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. A LITTLE COOLER TODAY WITH
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND HIGHER RAIN CHANCES...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S COASTAL AREAS TO THE MID 70S
OVER THE INTERIOR COUNTIES. COOLER TONIGHT AS WELL...ESPECIALLY WELL
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S
OVER NORTHWEST INTERIOR COUNTIES TO THE LOWER 50S SOUTHEAST COASTAL
COUNTIES. 12/DS

FRIDAY...THE AXIS OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS SWINGS
EAST PAST THE FA. A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE BACK OF THE
TROUGH PUSHES A RE-ENFORCING FRONT TOWARDS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. A
SECOND SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE TROUGH BEGINS TO WORK WITH THE
FRONT TO CREATE AN AREA OF ENHANCED CLOUDINESS. THE COOLER AIR THAT
MOVES OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT BECOMES EVIDENT...WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 60S EXPECTED. LOOKING AT THICKNESS VALUES AROUND THE
FA...IN EVIDENCE IS THE MOST SOUTHERLY PUSH OF THE COOLER AIR TO THIS
POINT IS EAST OF THE FA.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO
MEANDER EAST...YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE
TROUGH. THIS SHORTWAVE BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND OF INCREASED CLOUDINESS
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHED ACROSS THE FA...ALONG WITH
ENOUGH OOMPH TO BRING A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE NORTHEASTERN
PORTION OF THE FA SATURDAY. THE COOL AIR RETREATS A BIT...SO TEMPS
MODERATE BACK UPWARD A BIT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT ON)...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFF...DRAGGING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OVER
THE EAST COAST THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. THE RESULT OF THE FA IS A
QUICK SHIFT IN THE LOW LEVELS WINDS FROM NORTHERLY TO SOUTHERLY.
TEMPS MODERATE BACK TO SEASONAL LEVELS AS A RESULT.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE MID MISS AND TENN RIVER VALLEYS. THIS PUSHES ANOTHER FRONT
SOUTH TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. PATH DIFFERENCES IN THE GFS AND
ECMWF RESULT IN DIFFERENCES IN PLACEMENT...WITH THE GFS ADVERTISING
THE SOUTHERN-MOST EXTENT OF THE FRONT IN THE GFS BEING ALONG THE FL
ATLANTIC COAST...WHILST THE ECMWF IS ADVERTISING THE FRONT`S MOST
SOUTHERN EXTEND BEING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISS RIVER
VALLEY. THE ECMWF SOLUTION LEADS TO A TIGHTER TEMP RANGE WITH HIGHER
POPS THAN THE GFS. HAVE WENT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE TWO FOR THE
FORECAST. TEMPS AND CHANCE OF RAIN ABOVE SEASONAL IS THE RESULT.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...UPPER ENERGY MOVES FROM OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO EITHER OVER THE TX
COAST(ECMWF) OR THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY(GFS). THE MORE NORTHERLY
PATH OF THE STRONGER GFS ENERGY BRINGS INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW TO THE
AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. TEMPS WELL ABOVE SEASONAL CONTINUE...THOUGH THE
CHANCE OF RAIN DROPS TO AROUND SEASONAL.


&&

.AVIATION...
26/12Z FORECAST CYCLE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO THE WEST OF THE AREA WILL RESULT IN A
SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION TODAY. CEILINGS CONTINUE AT
MULTIPLE LEVELS ACROSS THE AREA...AND PATCHY FOG CONTINUES TO BE
VARIABLE ACROSS THE REGION AS WELL...RANGING FROM 1/2 TO ABOUT 4
MILES AT SOME OBSERVATION POINTS. CRITERIA WILL RANGE FROM IFR TO
MVFR ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SUNRISE...AND REMAIN MVFR (LOWER AT
TIMES) DURING THE DAY AS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE APPROACHING FRONT. THIS EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS THE
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS ENDING WEST TO
EAST. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST DURING THE EVENING AS
THE FRONT APPROACHES AND THEN SHIFT NORTHWEST AND INCREASE AFTER
MIDNIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT. 12/DS

&&

.MARINE...A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY MORE SOUTHERLY TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE MARINE AREA THIS
EVENING...WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO SOUTHWEST DURING THE EVENING AND
SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST AND INCREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...ENDING LATE TONIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MODERATE
TO STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY...
BEFORE WEAKENING LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MARINE AREA. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      75  47  67  41  68 /  80  40  10  00  10
PENSACOLA   73  52  68  44  66 /  80  50  10  00  10
DESTIN      74  54  66  46  64 /  80  60  10  00  10
EVERGREEN   76  48  64  38  67 /  60  60  10  00  10
WAYNESBORO  76  43  64  38  68 /  60  40  05  00  10
CAMDEN      77  46  63  38  66 /  50  60  10  00  10
CRESTVIEW   75  53  66  36  68 /  70  60  10  00  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

12/16





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